Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

Jump to new
tech/a

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck
Joined
14 October 2004
Posts
20,417
Reactions
6,356
Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact not be the top. :eek:

The evidence is in technical form. Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.

I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.

Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!

Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact not be the top. :eek:

The evidence is in technical form. Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.

I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.

Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!

Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!
Click to expand...

:eek: I'd have to change my avatar to something along these lines. LOL

b_bear_rug.jpg
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact not be the top. :eek:

The evidence is in technical form. Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.

I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.

Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!

Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!
Click to expand...


Will be very interested with what you have to present Tech.

Must say however, I have not seen as more Ending Diagonals in so many stoxx throughout this index than what is now evident!
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact not be the top. :eek:

The evidence is in technical form. Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.

I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.

Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!

Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!
Click to expand...
So the majority think this is THE top? Which majority would that be tech? From what I've seen, most that haven't already bought the first dip, are looking to buy the next one expecting us to hit new highs over the next few months:confused:
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Prof.
You mean my view isnt out of step with the majority?
Great!

Mind you Ive not seen any evidence other than people buying dips that this market will make new highs.
Out of interest do you or others think that a new high is possible?
Further do you think that a top is---how far off?
A---Years
B---Its already been made.
C---Sometime this year sooner than later.
WHY

Just interested in if there is some corroboration.
Steve's analysis corroborates---in part--my own.---as an example.
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

FWIW I think we have arrived at the top but we still have time-on, so the exact top may not be in yet.
I base that on 2 things.

1. The 400+ point selloff of the Dow a couple of weeks ago. Not your everyday pullback.

2, The big day ranges and abrupt reversals we are seeing now. To me that reflects a market in pain.

Both factors remind me of the US market circa 2000.


ice
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

ice said:
FWIW I think we have arrived at the top but we still have time-on, so the exact top may not be in yet.
I base that on 2 things.

1. The 400+ point selloff of the Dow a couple of weeks ago. Not your everyday pullback.

2, The big day ranges and abrupt reversals we are seeing now. To me that reflects a market in pain.

Both factors remind me of the US market circa 2000.


ice
Click to expand...

Silly Question, What makes you think it was a pullback? It may have been the start of the bear campaign, if that is the case it will not resemble a pullback that you had in the bull run will it? It's funny how people love to project the current trend into the future, "that's what it did before".

This market has had it way too good for way too long, it's the bears turn for now.
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Prof.
You mean my view isnt out of step with the majority?
Great!
Click to expand...
That's exactly what I mean. Didn't you hear? ABC correction then on to new highs!

tech/a said:
Mind you Ive not seen any evidence other than people buying dips that this market will make new highs.
Click to expand...

It mainly seems to be the fundies that are buying the dips-probably not the evidence you are looking for in this thread, but they seem to believe it pretty strongly, to put more money in. If you are referring to EW, then no, I've not seen any analysis confirming this either.

tech/a said:
Out of interest do you or others think that a new high is possible?
Further do you think that a top is---how far off?
A---Years
B---Its already been made.
C---Sometime this year sooner than later.
WHY

Just interested in if there is some corroberation.
Steve;s analysis corroberates---in part--my own.---as an example.
Click to expand...

I was only starting to air some moderately bearish views on the market the day before the big drop the end of last month, so I don't think I'm the sort of trader to be making calls months, or years in advance :)

As a general guess-
No new highs this month.
After that it doesn't really bother me, as I'm strictly intraday these days :)

I'm not really interested in making long term predictions at the moment- I just don't see the point(and it would be nothing more than a guess!)
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact not be the top. :eek:

The evidence is in technical form. Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.

I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.

Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!

Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!
Click to expand...
Total noob analysis tech, but it's something that I've been mulling over this week. Can't get a decent xjo chart, but the xao chart looks close enough.

xaoasf.jpg

questions:
1) Isn't that "walking zig-zag" pattern, marked in red, meant to be very bullish?

2) What are the chances of this wedge setting us up for one almighty descending wedgie later on in the year? Giving people a nice sting in the ass. That's my thinking anyway, and might be similar to what yours is.

Wave,
Just about every resource stock I see now, looks as screwed as a pooch, which dominate the xjo. But there are quite a few others (non mining) that I am on that still look incredibly bullish.

P.S. The mother of all shorting opportunities on Coles on Monday.
 

Attachments

  • xaoasf.jpg
    xaoasf.jpg
    113.7 KB · Views: 0
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I believe a famous Queensland premier (Joe Bjelke-Petersen) use to say, "It's like having one leg over a barbed wire fence".

Predictions are great in retrospect, but putting one leg over a barbed wire fence, and calling each way, is another.
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

You can only present the evidence.
And you can only present it when you see it.
There are and have been strong arguements for 6053 being the top and some strong evidence to support it.
Since yesterday evidence supporting a further move to a new high has become aparent.
One foot each side---maybe--would rather do that than be caught on the wrongside.

But if we as analysts adhere to Radges "Prove--Disprove" approach to our analysis,it could be argued that analysts are forever taking a bet eachway,when infact they are interpreting information as it becomes available.We do that everyday in most decisions we make in life.
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

There is another answer fellas, which makes all this prophesisng irrelevant.
TRADE ONE DAY AT A TIME wake up in the morning, take some trades, make money!! Close all trades, sleep at night, wake up, start again, who cares if its going up, going down, going sideways, just take the money off those who have got it wrong, there will plenty of them.
BM
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well put Tech.
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

ACCA - Advance, Correct, Consolidate, Advance???
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably? I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing. If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours. Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies". Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.

Why?

The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.

I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

The question I pose is where did the support for the XJO at 5641 and 5742 come from --- Guppy maintains that support that comes out of thin air is generally suspect.

Cheers
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Cunning buggers these bears
 

Attachments

  • B-B.jpg
    B-B.jpg
    34.2 KB · Views: 993
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

It mainly seems to be the fundies that are buying the dips-probably not the evidence you are looking for in this thread, but they seem to believe it pretty strongly, to put more money in. If you are referring to EW, then no, I've not seen any analysis confirming this either.
Click to expand...

You must be joking.
Pseudo-fundy peanuts maybe.

jog on
d998
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

MichaelD said:
Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably? I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing. If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours. Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies". Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.

Why?

The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.

I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.
Click to expand...

Well isn't that what trading's all about --- but no one wants to know THAT!


Good post M

Cheers
 
Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Suppose if U want to trade u need Volatility.
 

Attachments

  • Bull3.jpg
    Bull3.jpg
    30.6 KB · Views: 945
  • bull01.jpg
    bull01.jpg
    34.5 KB · Views: 888

Similar threads

kahuna1
America a Failed State and a Rogue State to the rest of the World
17 18 19
Replies
372
Views
25K
basilio
basilio
kahuna1
Top of this cycle for ASX 200, cash is king?
3 4 5
Replies
80
Views
16K
kahuna1
kahuna1
sydboy007
What is the typical Australian Income in 2013?
2
Replies
29
Views
8K
sydboy007
sydboy007
tech/a
In the Interest of Clarity
2 3
Replies
40
Views
12K
tech/a
tech/a
cynic
Unsolicited advice - What are our true motivations?
Replies
2
Views
3K
young-gun
young-gun
Top