Elliott Wave and the XAO

OzWaveGuy · 4 May 2009

I thought I'd create a specific thread for discussion of EW and the XAO....

Since the 21st Nov 08, each of the larger legs on the XAO has been moving in 3 wave patterns - corrective waves. The most recent leg up (wave C), shows a triangle (wave 'b' circle) for the intervening correction found in 3 waves moves. This triangle implies the trend is about to change so watch for 5 waves up (or an ending diagonal) to complete shortly .

The larger pattern unfolding since the 21st Nov is starting to resemble an Expanding Triangle - found in wave 4 positions. To be valid, the XAO must deliver wave D and E, again as 3 wave moves.

A second consideration is that we are seeing the final push up of a double zig-zag correction (not labeled). The completion would see the downtrend resume, although this is also the same for the expanding triangle scenario for wave D. Either way a new low is expected.

tech/a · 4 May 2009

Like it.
Ive had a look at a few counts and this looks the most probable.
I agree there is a final wave 5 in the mix.
This for me is best seen in the weekly count.
Click to expand.

Boggo · 4 May 2009

OzWaveGuy said:
The larger pattern unfolding since the 21st Nov is starting to resemble an Expanding Triangle - found in wave 4 positions. To be valid, the XAO must deliver wave D and E, again as 3 wave moves.

Interesting...
How do these points fit with Aget MOB on the daily tech/a ?

(click to expand)

tech/a · 4 May 2009

Boggo.
Pretty similar (ignore the count I dont agree with it as the impulse waves Arent there!).

Think in the next day or so we will see the last gasp!

Click to expand.

Boggo · 4 May 2009

Ta tech/a

I am seeing probably more than usual potential end of wave sells and less buys appearing in Elliott Wave and ABC etc scans.
It wouldn't take much to topple the current run up, however, if it powers through this "Decision Point" (a level where the market will make a decision whether to reverse or not) then 4400 perhaps ??.

tech/a · 5 May 2009

Well this is interesting.
Click to expand

Chris45 · 5 May 2009

60 days up from the SPI Total bottom on Mar-6. Very interesting indeed!

nunthewiser · 5 May 2009

nice to have you back ozwave

OzWaveGuy · 6 May 2009

nunthewiser said:
nice to have you back ozwave

Thx, took a few hols.

OzWaveGuy · 6 May 2009

Under the Expanding Triangle scenario, Wave 'C' appears to be close to completion where one last leg up should push to a new short term high.
There is solid resistance at 3950, where this final leg up will be exactly 61.8% of the 'a' circle leg.

The second chart shows how an expanding triangle may play out. The final wave 5 down will most likely fail (in large corrective scenarios like this one), before correcting upwards (for some time).

Sean K · 11 May 2009

EW'ers still running with a W4?

Have you all been short and/or staying out of stocks and indicies as you've been waiting for the W5 down?

If so, missed a few points by the look.

If you're right, nice work, going to be an awesome oportunity once that final leg down comes to fruition. I haven't been fully invested expecting one more leg/capitulation, as painful to watch as that has been. Missed some amazing opportunities. But caught a couple too.

When is this W4 invalidated, and we actually saw a W5 bottom, if that is possible?

OzWaveGuy · 11 May 2009

XAO - Expanding Triangle for Wave (4)

The Wave 'C' up leg in the Expanding Triangle Scenario for the XAO could well be complete (or very near completion with an additional sub-divison that takes the XAO above 3950).

The 3950 target was almost reached today and is a site of solid resistance and does provide a suitable area for a turn down into the wave 'D' leg of the Expanding Triangle.

Timewise there is relationships between the two upward sub-divisons of wave 'C'. The 'a' circle leg and the 'c' circle leg (not labelled) - the 'c' leg is 63% of 'a' - a very close 61.8% fibonacci relationship of time

I've also include the MACD signal line, a short term high representing the end of wave 'iii' shown with the dashed line, and the subsequent divergence of the MACD as price hits a new short term high (representing wave 'v').

XAO Next Steps
Prices need to turn down from here (or perhaps after one more small push upwards) for the Expanding Triangle to continue to be a top contender. Five small waves down and a break of the short term trendline will be an indicator that suggests a turn has started.

nunthewiser · 11 May 2009

FINALLY!

im in total agreement with your latest chart and perceived direction posted

have a great evening

tech/a · 11 May 2009

nunthewiser said:
FINALLY!

im in total agreement with your latest chart and perceived direction posted

have a great evening

Definate sign for long positions tommorow.

Thanks NUN

nunthewiser · 11 May 2009

tech/a said:
Definate sign for long positions tommorow.

Thanks NUN

happy to help ........ go for it

clayton4115 · 12 May 2009

you went long and the market drops 2%?

nunthewiser · 12 May 2009

clayton4115 said:
you went long and the market drops 2%?

not me bud , im in total agreement with ozwaves view here ......... my entrys are bandied around the threads

clayton4115 · 12 May 2009

yeah i was talking to tech/a

where does it look long from those charts?

Sean K · 12 May 2009

clayton4115 said:
yeah i was talking to tech/a

I think tech was taking the p!ss. LOL

Chris45 · 12 May 2009

So who is the best contrarian indicator around here?

Elliott Wave and the XAO

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