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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

You guys are all thinking it'll go down to 3700?? Holy ****....

I guess it looks like one of those bearish ascending wedges I read about on the paper... but I have a hard time believing it'll go down much further than 4200, then again I'm a newbie you guys make money off from.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

alter1217 said:
You guys are all thinking it'll go down to 3700?? Holy ****....

I guess it looks like one of those bearish ascending wedges I read about on the paper... but I have a hard time believing it'll go down much further than 4200, then again I'm a newbie you guys make money off from.
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I'm with you alter, don't buy it though have seen nomore4s being fairly accurate over past few months. 4200 sounds like a reasonable correction before market rebounds from improving signs globally. Just MHO as don't go by the charts.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

@alter :)
Without trying to make any predictions I'd peg resistance/support at 4400, 4300 & finally 3700. No mystery about what my chart shows but then again tomorrow we could be heading up again. :) I leave the predicting to those more confident to stick their neck out ;)
xao_ax30apr09_to_08nov09.png
:2twocents

PS: (hypocrisy follows) my prediction is the market will head back up again by the end of the week but I am often fatally optimistic (& wrong) :D :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Don't really follow the XAO much but will throw my 2c in with 3 lines of interest from previous support/resistance. Coincidentally spaced nearly equal distance apart. Will see if any are honoured or not I suppose.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Update.

I'm now looking for a move back towards 3700 - Major support above the lows but there is a chance we could end up only pulling back towards the top of the first rally from the bottom which is around 4000-4100 - this would also make the decline 3 waves instead of 5. I will be looking for signs from individual stocks around this area to decide on how I trade around that level. But I still favour a test of 3700 for a number of reasons.

I have also amended the target level for the next red rally to around the 4800-5400 area.

Will be interesting to see if this analysis continues to play out.
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Best analysis on ASF y.t.d.This possible scenario is in my view is close to my personal outlook.
Looking currently on the dow and ftse 100 futures currently -100.Well if we see a large red day on the dow tonight,tomorrow will be a interesting selling day,In reguards to a technical view,we could see 4488 tested.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Dark1975 said:
Best analysis on ASF y.t.d.This possible scenario is in my view is close to my personal outlook.
Looking currently on the dow and ftse 100 futures currently -100.Well if we see a large red day on the dow tonight,tomorrow will be a interesting selling day,In reguards to a technical view,we could see 4488 tested.
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not sold on 3700 - all the results/data are pretty good.

4100 will be a 20% drop, and a bear market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

beerwm said:
not sold on 3700 - all the results/data are pretty good. 4100 will be a 20% drop, and a bear market.
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Agree Beerwm, expect we'll hang around this area a while before resuming the trek towards 5000.

And funny how charts seem to add so much weight with some people. Yet Warren Buffet manages very well without them "stopped tech analysis when I turned charts upsidedown, got the same answers" and he has given me more confidence this week with his Burlington Northern play.

Compelling quotes from recent Reserve Bank presentation... "Perhaps nowhere is the impact clearer than in the structure of our international trade, especially our exports. The recent trade data shows that Australia's four most important merchandise export destinations this year have been China, Japan, South Korea and India - all in Asia. The fifth largest is United States. Just six years ago US was ranked 2nd. Collectively, these four large Asian trading partners have accounted for around 55% of our total exports of goods over the past 12 months. Adding in the rest of Asia, the figure is around 70%"

Elsewhere "As we have seen recently, the region has the capability to grow strongly through doemstic, not exernal demand. This really should not come as a surprise. After all the US economy, with a few hundred miilion people, has grown for many decades largely on the back of domestic, rather than foreign demend. There is no reason that the approxiamtely 3.5 billion people in Asia cannot do the same. It ultimately comes down to the policy choices that are made".

The report of 19th Oct by Assistant Governor, Philip Lowe contains a lot of other objective reasoning from a very credible institution.

This perspective, and somewhat reinforced by Buffett in the US still chugging away, means far more to me than any charts I see. Fundamentals analyses, and in the case of Buffett decision, based on his fundamental anlysis vs... tea leaves. Am being a little facetious as appreciate the informed chartists refer to fundamentals and also look for the next resistance levels etc, so no reflection on Dark1975 or nomore4s. Just that I place more weight on analysis of where we are and the outlook, based on more dynamics than a chart of where we've been.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Donga said:
Agree Beerwm, expect we'll hang around this area a while before resuming the trek towards 5000.
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I agree for different reasons. We've been hanging around support of 4500 to 4550 for 3 days now. Unless we break below 4400, I wouldn't expect to see any further significant down side... If we do break 4400 with any conviction though, I'd expect to see 3700 or so before we take a trek upwards again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It is strange in a way how this Australian Index has analysis when no matter how good the Australian economy might be looking, it is the American market that determines our fate.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Past few days have seen lots of shorting but no real move in our markets.
ES futs were at 1040s vs SPI 4560s a few days ago.
Today they are 1040s vs SPI 4510s. Think we're overdue for a squeeze
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
It is strange in a way how this Australian Index has analysis when no matter how good the Australian economy might be looking, it is the American market that determines our fate.
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So all the money printing in the US helps the US & AU markets, at least in the short term. Well, there's a huge increase of money supply going on in all countries, not just the US.

If all doom and gloom predictions of the US economy are correct in the long term, we'll have a massive sudden decline in the global markets when everyone loses faith in the US paper currency. Precious metals will shoot up instantly. Global markets outside US will eventually recover and the world will thrive again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just a reminder to all that this is the XAO Analysis thread. Any targets (bullish or bearish) must be supported by some accompanying analysis.

It would be nice to see a chart but one is not mandatory.

If you are going to post, please offer something of value to those reading the thread.

Thank you. :)

P.S. Not aiming this post at anyone in particular but we have been removing the odd post here and there for not offering any real content. Most posts in this thread are fine.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
It is strange in a way how this Australian Index has analysis when no matter how good the Australian economy might be looking, it is the American market that determines our fate.
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From August there has been some divergence but coming back into line now.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
Past few days have seen lots of shorting but no real move in our markets.
ES futs were at 1040s vs SPI 4560s a few days ago.
Today they are 1040s vs SPI 4510s. Think we're overdue for a squeeze
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I tend to agree, I'm still looking for a lower high to confirm any bearish outlook.

I think we are going to retest 4750 before anymore downside. Breaking 4500 is still the key for any downside imo.

IMO a retreat to 4100 or 3700 would be a healthy correction.

I'm looking for the white scenario to play out but we could see the yellow or a number of other ones play out.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
I tend to agree, I'm still looking for a lower high to confirm any bearish outlook.

I think we are going to retest 4750 before anymore downside. Breaking 4500 is still the key for any downside imo.

IMO a retreat to 4100 or 3700 would be a healthy correction.

I'm looking for the white scenario to play out but we could see the yellow or a number of other ones play out.
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4500 was well defended on the SPI today...

I think 4650 will provide some resistance. That might end the retest before you know it. It will form a neat slanted H&S.

20091105 Australia 200 Cash.png

On the hourly chart the 4650 level also feels important.

20091105 Australia 200 Forward.png

BTW this is my 1000th post!!! [Insert fireworks gif]
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Support level at 4300. :) I should find a graph measuring Australia's GDP, and determine the slope of Australia's potential output, and place it over this... hard to find though.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

beerwm said:
not sold on 3700 - all the results/data are pretty good.

4100 will be a 20% drop, and a bear market.
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Just responding to your question!Sorry for the late response been away on business.
Well two sides of the coin i guess!Some traders looking to bearish movement(hence myself-a large correction to 3700 on the xao).Other traders looking at 5000 on the xao by xmas!.Spose who's right or wrong?
AnsweR: No one can predict future markets with out a crystal ball..lmao.But i guess we can refer to price action on a technical view or information.My personal investment strategies aren't perfect,But i look at risk to reward ratio!
I havn't seen price action to confirm my prediction to a lower target of 3700 on the xao,tho have seen support with infomation(unemployment figures of 10.2% in the u.s)Confirming in my mind,it aint all rosy reports coming in.

I respect your opinion,And you could be right?Important junction point in the market right now.I will follow up my information with graphs on the xao/dow to conclude and state my case for a possible extreme down turn in the market in the next few days.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

There's still a lot of sceptics who can't comprehend that this is a major rally.They've been waiting for this risk rally to tank all this while. So much money on the sidelines, waiting for a decent correction. If they don't get it here, there will be a forced wave of buying pressure. We'll go well above 5000.

see where the financials lead us....interesting juncture indeed
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
Don't really follow the XAO much but will throw my 2c in with 3 lines of interest from previous support/resistance. Coincidentally spaced nearly equal distance apart. Will see if any are honoured or not I suppose.
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Following on from this initial post reveals the index came within 16 points of the first zone. Unemployment figures in the USA will likely bring a further reduction in index price but the Americans are very defiant as can be evidenced with insane bull runs when the economy is going terrible.
 

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