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Kauri said:
She did enough to close out my longs but not enough to reach where I was looking to possibly reset..yet :)
Such is Life
...................Kauri
Click to expand...

Woke up this am to see that she had hit my reset point and that I am now back in long again...on the hourly.. running a very tight stop on this one... set at B/E already.. :)

Cheers
..........Kauri
 

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I keep getting a possible pullback region in some calcs at 93668ish and 93718 , but haven't seen any thing close yet .
 
no one picked out that booboo , must have been a day ending with " Y "


93668ish and 93718 /


92668ish and 92718 ahem ......
 
ithatheekret said:
no one picked out that booboo , must have been a day ending with " Y "


93668ish and 93718 /


92668ish and 92718 ahem ......
Click to expand...

Nope. I saw "a possible pullback" followed by a number starting with 9.

The rest didn't register for me, cos I'm seeing 8's again sometime shortly. ;)
 
Some thoughts on the AUDUSD this (not so fine) Monday morning ... hope you all had a great weekend, I am never going to Westfields on a rainy Saturday again ... and I thought the FX Markets were crazy!

audusdea8.gif
 
I trade naked, does that mean I should always be looking for shorts?


A naked trader hey . The puts and calls work fine . Price action is wonderful .
 
well third attempt to pass the black night on duty at the 95c gate on the way to the holy grail of parity
this run doesn't look too convincing but whichever result, it should have a few legs
 

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reece55 said:
Inflation at 4% probably is helping here me thinks......

And here we go again, AUD breaks out on a new high.... Parity anyone???

Cheers
Click to expand...

didn't take long to overcome the black knight - looked silly in those shorts he had on anyway
 

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I was thinking around June for 98 cents , parity may have to wait until we seen the US crisis is bottoming III . the rate they're going it will have more runs than Bruce Willis and his Die Hard movies .....

What about the latest media hype on a rate cut , more road kills for the media roobar . Kev ought to come down off his cloud and attend to the wafflers and spinners , they're just as bad as inside traders , but they have a capability to spin it to thousands of eager ears .
 
Gold has dropped to as low as $893, helping weigh on AUD/USD. Also eyed are the fall in the USD index to April lows and the fall in CHF to March lows v. the USD. If these dates are compared to AUD levels at the time, then current AUD/USD should be lower, at least at 0.9280 and at risk of a move as low as 0.9100. or not... I thunk..

Cheers
...........Kauri
 
This EW ending diagonal has resulted in a great 150pip trade today. The great thing here is that this will be a multi week/month abrupt move down the base of wave 2 of the ED on the weekly chart which approx 77c. At least for this first move down in the bear market.

For now out of the market as my Cyclical trading tool says we have reached an extreme on the 1 Hr chart and a small upward rally should result(At least to the nominal blue line anyway). A good place to reposition for a short. Mind you the longer term Cycle analysis chart is pointing to more downside in the weeks ahead.

Good Trading to All!!
 

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wavepicker said:
This EW ending diagonal has resulted in a great 150pip trade today. The great thing here is that this will be a multi week/month abrupt move down the base of wave 2 of the ED on the weekly chart which approx 77c. At least for this first move down in the bear market.
Click to expand...
I can't see a 20% fall in the AUD as a prospect in the near or medium term.
There are always pullbacks after new cycle highs are hit, and one is now in train for tha AUD.
Were there to be an interest rate cut by our Reserve, then a steeper decline may be an outcome. However, there ismore chance of a rise in our rates than a fall, putting our dollar on a much stronger footing.
Couple this with massive commodity price earnings and it is, frankly, hard to see AUD\USD parity being further than a year away.
 
rederob said:
I can't see a 20% fall in the AUD as a prospect in the near or medium term.
There are always pullbacks after new cycle highs are hit, and one is now in train for tha AUD.
Were there to be an interest rate cut by our Reserve, then a steeper decline may be an outcome. However, there ismore chance of a rise in our rates than a fall, putting our dollar on a much stronger footing.
Couple this with massive commodity price earnings and it is, frankly, hard to see AUD\USD parity being further than a year away.
Click to expand...


Points taken R.

But interest rate differentials will have little impact in this instance IMO. The rise in the AUD has been more due to the collapse in the USD over the years than anything else. If that situation were to change for a few years which I think it will, starting between now and mid year the whole AUD parity equation changes.

That is the beauty of T/A sometimes. You can see the market churning from the patterns traced out in the charts if you know what you are looking for, and take advantage of the situation. Rather than waiting for the fundementals to catch up.

As I have said many time before, it's the collective social mood of the crowd that sets the trends in the market. Not always the fundementals.

For now the trend is down, and I will exploit that trend as much as possible until the patterns in the charts dictate otherwise.

Cheers
 
wavepicker said:
But interest rate differentials will have little impact in this instance IMO. The rise in the AUD has been more due to the collapse in the USD over the years than anything else.
Click to expand...

Or both?

Perhaps higher expected relative inflationary pressures in the US adding to the case.....

:2twocents

Collective social moods sure set the trends, however these moods are sure altered by the fundamentals.

Like you say though, you can exploit the move through the charts, however, when is the trend prooven otherwise? This in itself can become extremelly vague. Sure, a wave breaking the rules or ("guidelines") or a pivot being penetrated can help, but in the end, it is a lot more random than most aknowledge.

No idea why people keep having stabs at F/A V T/A, both have their merits and if your making $$, you should not feel the need (not having a go at this thread, just a recurring arguement I have noticed throughout the forums lately).
 
rederob said:
I can't see a 20% fall in the AUD as a prospect in the near or medium term.
There are always pullbacks after new cycle highs are hit, and one is now in train for tha AUD.
Were there to be an interest rate cut by our Reserve, then a steeper decline may be an outcome. However, there ismore chance of a rise in our rates than a fall, putting our dollar on a much stronger footing.
Couple this with massive commodity price earnings and it is, frankly, hard to see AUD\USD parity being further than a year away.
Click to expand...

Rederob

nice points no argument for your reasons.

What I do want to say is, currency trading requires one thing a very open mind to anything! I have seen and do see currencies make highs and lows that would never be thought possible. I am never so black and white in FX trading! you can get very burned or miss out on great opportunities!

here's a example for u, last year 11 July if I said to you based on our rising rates and super strong commodity prices that in three - four weeks time we would make a low of .7645 from our high of .8873 I am sure you would say the same thing but hey we did! see chart.

It's great to have thoughts but mate the market don't care for that and it will and can do anything! have a plan but keep a open mind, as you never know what's around the corner.

Good trading
 

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wavepicker said:
Points taken R.

But interest rate differentials will have little impact in this instance IMO. The rise in the AUD has been more due to the collapse in the USD over the years than anything else. If that situation were to change for a few years which I think it will, starting between now and mid year the whole AUD parity equation changes.

That is the beauty of T/A sometimes. You can see the market churning from the patterns traced out in the charts if you know what you are looking for, and take advantage of the situation. Rather than waiting for the fundementals to catch up.

As I have said many time before, it's the collective social mood of the crowd that sets the trends in the market. Not always the fundementals.

For now the trend is down, and I will exploit that trend as much as possible until the patterns in the charts dictate otherwise.

Cheers
Click to expand...

Great points WP,

what has been the main reason for the high prices in our dollar and commodities. I agree with you the weaker USD. the aud has not done all that great against the euro.

the rates have sure helped with a carry trade on the aud, higher here lower in the states.

If you take a look at the usd chart and the AUD/USD chart from 2001 to now u will see a mirror image!

like yourself I just make my trades off what the chart tells me. I really don't care about what is happening, I just trade.
 
MRC & Co said:
Or both?

Perhaps higher expected relative inflationary pressures in the US adding to the case.....

:2twocents

Collective social moods sure set the trends, however these moods are sure altered by the fundamentals.

Like you say though, you can exploit the move through the charts, however, when is the trend prooven otherwise? This in itself can become extremelly vague. Sure, a wave breaking the rules or ("guidelines") or a pivot being penetrated can help, but in the end, it is a lot more random than most aknowledge.

No idea why people keep having stabs at F/A V T/A, both have their merits and if your making $$, you should not feel the need (not having a go at this thread, just a recurring arguement I have noticed throughout the forums lately).
Click to expand...

MRC,

this is a forum, we are here to talk and express what we do in our own ways. by this we can all see new ideas and learn. there is no right way to trade a market there is only your way. we all have one aim to be profitable. if u use FA or TA it does not matter, though constructive arguments with new points of view coming in we can maybe see something that we were blind to before that point or chart was posted. as a forex trader i check all the news reports coming out every day. I have to i need to be aware or what is around the corner. I am not a FA trader and never will be but I have respect for it. I have had many arguments with members in ASF mainly due to my own smart lip. but from this I have learnt a lot and been exposed to many different ideas from fellow members. I think it's a good thing.

I don't think WP is attacking any one he is just expressing his unique point of view.
 

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