AUD

[Kauri]

whenever I look at skip I keep seeing Toulouse Lautrec.... frightening really....
with AIG's news... Dell... the UK hedge being clipped... Paulson saying 3 small banks have failed and more may follow.... all looks like risk aversion to me... I'll wait and see how the cousins over the creek react tonight...
the fall of US 2Yr treasuries doing a 27 odd point fall in 24Hrs doesn't show much positive sentiment towards the good ole US of A either....

However... ... a big barrier at 95 may yet lure skip into the top paddock... the fence just held last night... barely....


then again the doctors may be able to spin it out of the rough and surprise me by taking me behind my legs a-la Gatting...

Wondering
.............Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

I think we are headed for 96 cents and more than likely 98 cents by June .

I've been buying dips all the way up and playing some positions out , keeping the dregs as I go , got a bit worried as a couple of trades were over the phone and I couldn't get the thing to work properly . I know what one of the G's in 3G stand for now , the other two are a mystery ............

 

[Kauri]

skip is at a fork in the path.. on my hourlys... which way to bound???
Slainte
...........Kauri

PS
0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9450 and 0.9500 option strikes raise their heads at 1500

 

[Kauri]

Plurry Nora... I hate these decision points... where are all the sign posts?>??
Slainte
............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

just hd a call from a tired sonding brokery person telling me that skip was a red hot buy,, red. OK... ..hot.OK..... but a buy???
Impressed
............Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

I haven't made up my mind whether 9330/93310 ish was a hidden pivot around the beginning of the last run up , got stuck doing other things .

But ......... I'd say that 9320 was def a pivot area .

She's got to test her lows , we've had a confirmation of a reversal ( no chit sherlock huh ) .

Don't know at present , action says it's should test 9275 or attempt to , closing under that pivot does show weakness , yet again she was well overbought . Stops and the exits etc. would have diluted that .

I've got line ups in old supports , best I can come up with at present for a max rev. is 9185 , don't think it will , but won't discount it either .

Looking across the main swaps , Her Maj is now looking ovb , nice rally up on reserve currency strategies , the Yen is the same , but ....... will we see 100 breached , big worry for some loans , hope B&B are hedged etc.
The Swissie , well yodalayeooh

If the majors start coming off a bit , we should see Skip go back and test again , 95 is to be breached yet , There's an old high that needs to get revisited , goes back to 1984 ( 9648 ) , that's the focus/fear zone at present .

The next confirmation would need to break above the pivot , if 933 area was hidden pivot , well I'd like to have it breach that into 9345 , need all the specs that would have been in the mellee back before that comes about , unless they've been able to enter the run down , mines closed out already on breach of the pivot area .

Monday will let me know where the cabbies heading .




PS ... noting top of band channel last weeks run through was 9605ish from the low calculated off , at present going off the Jan low 22/23rd area was 9265ish ........hmmm 9255 / 45 's maybe ....

 

[ithatheekret]

92.75's was the touch so far , a large bid (9.8M units) has been chasing the price , missed a few spots it did ........... so it moved up a few times , so someones keen , my piddly 15 are a mere speck .

 

[Kauri]

I get the 9253 as an important fib point... also have noted that the skip usually goes countertrend on Mon Asian openinings after a goodly move on Fridays... possibly importers/exporters getting set??
Also I hear that the Aussie CAD is going to be a bit of a shocker... shipping hold-ups??
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Bottlenecks everywhere on the ports mate . Coalers would be banging on Canberra doors ........ missing out on prime time must hurt , but everyone has to get on the end of the line . Export Australia Inc just has to join the queue .

You want first to market sales anywhere , it had better be able to fly .

Just been going over some figure on Japanese Corps , they're in much better shape than the US . Chit shock and shudder

 

[ithatheekret]

Be interesting now , bids on the pivot . 9320

 

[Kauri]

Apparently US investors are going for antipodean bonds in a big way due to the real rate of return.. on 10tyr treasuries it is 0.93% whilst the down unders show 3.93% and 3.68%.. and they have the same credit rating as treasuries!!!


Links... St Andrews....
..and wsj..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

skip at an interesting stage re-patterns... after GDP came in much as expected..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

with the Fed showing some imagination and attacking the credit malaise from a different angle it leaves them more room to fight inflation, and the punters are winding back the likelihood of rate cuts. In Aus the expectation of further rises is also being ratcheted off... (see Weds Australian and Age)..
Once the euphoria of Uncle Bens latest money dump wears off and the the big US banks start rolling out their stellar results soon, risk allergies will once again be endemic... and skip may find itself squarely in the roo shooters spotties...
In short,, I'm short the skip... hopefully for the long haul... currently.. also that yellow metal..

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[explod]

with the Fed showing some imagination and attacking the credit malaise from a different angle it leaves them more room to fight inflation, and the punters are winding back the likelihood of rate cuts. In Aus the expectation of further rises is also being ratcheted off... (see Weds Australian and Age)..
Once the euphoria of Uncle Bens latest money dump wears off and the the big US banks start rolling out their stellar results soon, risk allergies will once again be endemic... and skip may find itself squarely in the roo shooters spotties...
In short,, I'm short the skip... hopefully for the long haul... currently.. also that yellow metal..

Cheers
...........Kauri

Yes looks like a good blast.


Those hollow points make such a mess too.

 

[Kauri]

Yes looks like a good blast.


Those hollow points make such a mess too.

I'm looking for a good malu wipu stew... I find solids better.. less bruising..
Cheers
..........Kauri

PS...
coily may not play out but I like that it has also crossed under and tested my random number generated white line.. and bounced back... so far...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Just thinking we might be close to a testing point, breaching the previous high or capitulation?

 

[Dazza_UAE]

Hi all first post -Aussie Expat - Newcomer to Forex. I also have a US dollar loan for a Mortgage, so I have a vested interest in the AUD/USD pair. I am thinking seriously about re fixing the Loan into $A. With all the recent volatility of the AUD/USD and fairly rapid retreat from 0.94 ish in March. I would be interested on anyones (sensible) thoughts on the AUD/USD pair for april to July and possible long range forecast for the rest of 2008? I have looked at various links such as; st George bank - "Dollar out look", Bloomberg TV etc... but have found there are conflicting views and even revisions from time to time. I realise that there is no magic formula per se and that there are many variables and other external influences on a Country's Currency strength. There seems to be lots of information out there but sorting the "wheat from the chaff" appears to be the most difficult part.

http://www.stgeorge.com.au/treasury/eco_reports/dollar_outlook.asp?orc=institution

http://www.dailyfx.com/?keyword=currency forecasts&ad=1015&CMP=SFS-70160000000CrV7AAK

http://www.neatideas.com/ausd.htm

Any advice greatfully accepted.

 

[ithatheekret]

I had a go at Skip on the 9265 bounce and picked her up at 92706 and just again then at 92742ish . Thought I'd see if she's got the pepper to have another run . 94 area still needs 9475 kicked over , if she doesen't behave , I'd reverse and sell a fail . I would expect the 92850 and just above to be a bit of hard tack , but she's moving .

Now if I can keep my eyes open long enough , it could be a long night if resistance ends up support .

 

[Kauri]

I had a go at Skip on the 9265 bounce and picked her up at 92706 and just again then at 92742ish . Thought I'd see if she's got the pepper to have another run . 94 area still needs 9475 kicked over , if she doesen't behave , I'd reverse and sell a fail . I would expect the 92850 and just above to be a bit of hard tack , but she's moving .

Now if I can keep my eyes open long enough , it could be a long night if resistance ends up support .

Two sugars??...


G'day mate..
..............Stauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Tapped back into the zone a few times , just had an alert bleep me a min ago . Will she turn supportive ...... ?

Bit of schwing hey mate .......

Might roll the dice too .