# Gold Price - Where is it heading?



## guycharles

We have seen the false start and the consolidation. Now that more and more people are starting  to realise inflation is about to go nuts and that is good for Gold.


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## Joe Blow

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

I believe Gold could go either way. It has certainly been making ground on the back of global uncertainty with all this terrorism business.

And I agree that higher inflation would definitely have a positive impact on the price of gold.

But what about the strength of the American economy? When the American economy booms, the price of gold tends to suffer as people turn away from the yellow metal and into other investment vehicles. Lately US growth has been strong and I'm beginning to think that this is what has been holding gold back lately.

I'm largely undecided although if I was a betting man I'd say it'll see US$410 again before it sees US$350.

Anyway, here's the chart.

Would love to hear some other views.


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

You shoulda had that bet Joe!

August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

The goldbugs haven't got all the excitement to themselves. 

Silver is making a statement of it's own by breaking out of the range ;D

A slightly unexpected windfall for the channel traders


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## Joe Blow

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



> You shoulda had that bet Joe!
> 
> August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.




Yeah, I got out of OXR a little too early. Too impatient.

Oh well, a lesson learned!

 :-/


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

That channel contained the gold price action.  August Gold being around 402 atm.

If the bottom of the channel proves to be support yet again, we are talking about 392 before a bounce.

Silver back to around 6.40 also.

Cheers


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## Jett_Star

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



> You shoulda had that bet Joe!
> 
> August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Jet_Star,

You will be happy to know that it has stayed in the channel


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## mudguts

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

I am sorry to say that as a gold punter myself the fact that global chaos equalls gains in the gold sector i find a story in the news on some sort of de stabilising event gives me some sort of morbid satisfaction that the stock i hold will go up at the expense of some poor third world gutter dweller.


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold might bounce back down a bit after having another run at 440 but once it breaks that it's unlikely that it'll break 400 again. So, in the short term, it may be in a minor retreat but from what I've heard from some forecasters next year will be a watershed. I'm not sure it Gold will continue to be affected by the US economy or the US dollar as much as in the past. Will just have to see where we are at after the US elections and subsequent interest rate moves.


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Channel traders will be salivating at this setup to go long. 

Stay tuned!


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## Jett_Star

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



> Jet_Star,
> 
> You will be happy to know that it has stayed in the channel




Happy, very happy!


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Oops! It dropped out!   hehe


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Okay people, gold is having another run, hang on for the ride!!


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## stefan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

As long as terrorist alerts are issued in the US, we will see gold trading at very high levels. So this could go on for a while...

Happy trading

Stefan


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Doesn't look that bullish to me! In fact its generating a sell signal on my system tonight.(tentatively at this stage)


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

gold closing towards highs...cancel sell signal


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## stefan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Wayne,

This is why I'm critical about charts. They don't have the ability to take anything but historical data into consideration. If there is a terrorist threat then your chart is not going to act differently. But this will have a significant impact on gold. As it has on oil. 

So I believe that charts can only do the trick in a "normal" trading environment. And since we are not exactly living in trouble free times, I doubt that you will be very successful following charts in gold and oil.

Just my idea. I know that there are a lot of members who trade based on charts.

Happy trading

Stefan


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

My understanding is that Gold is a great hedge against high volatility (high risk), hence when things are unsettled everyone runs to Gold as it's considered safe- hope I got this right. So terrorist attacks should mean higher Gold prices. Still, I follow the trend (as it's my friend!) so all you can do is time your entry and exists properly. But then that's just my understanding and I do keep revising my outlook. Anyone think different? Comments?
Oil may be a different story but I expect high oil prices to continue for the foreseeable future.
RichKid


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

&gt;&gt;This is why I'm critical about charts. They don't have the ability to take anything but historical data into consideration. &lt;&lt;

This is true Stefan, but this is also true of any form of analysis. There is no analysis that can predict the future. We can only make projection/educated guesses.

&gt;&gt;If there is a terrorist threat then your chart is not going to act differently. But this will have a significant impact on gold. As it has on oil.&lt;&lt;

Oil and Gold have given excellent technical signals lately. Some have worked, some haven't...no differnt to normal. 

However no analysis will be of much use in a sudden event such as a terrorist attack.  

&gt;&gt;So I believe that charts can only do the trick in a "normal" trading environment.&lt;&lt;

Yes I do agree with this. Extreme volatilty is a pig to trade. But once again, this is no different to f/a. The fundy or the techie will need deep pockets indeed to trade these events...unless already on the right side of the movement. 

I don't know how a fundy would do it but a techie will ajust trading plan and position size to account for the volatility

&gt;&gt;And since we are not exactly living in trouble free times, I doubt that you will be very successful following charts in gold and oil.&lt;&lt;

My account shows otherwise 

As for the tading signal I posted above. Bear in mind that is was t/a which alerted me to a *potential* trading opportunity. It was also t/a which ultimatey discounted the signal as invalid...In other words my sytem worked ecaxtly the way I wanted it to.

The aim is not to be right 100% of the time. The aim is to maximise gain as a % of dollars risked. My expectancy figures have been in excess of 1.5 for a loooong time. So you can decide t/a is not for you, but you cannot legitimately deny that t/a works. That would be like me saying f/a does not work, which is obviously ludicrous.

I'll let you in on a secret. I'm a terrible fundamental analysist. It doesn't work for me. But I cannot deny that it works. Buffet et al would not even bother laughing if I said someting as silly as that.

But try to walk up to the folks at Dunn Capital and tell them t/a doesn't work. They would recommend a nice friendly therapist for you.

Cheers


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## stefan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Wayne,

Excellent posting. I'm not after proofing that T/A is crap. I'm taking the view that there are too many T/A done on stocks who simply don't work that way. One of it is gold. Now there is of course also the simple fact that things work because so many people believe in it. 



> This is true Stefan, but this is also true of any form of analysis. There is no analysis that can predict the future. We can only make projection/educated guesses.



Wayne, this is not what I'm trying to say. Of course there is no form of analysis that can predict the future. However, if the US is on terror alert, then I as a human being with some sort of intelligence, can take that into consideration. I will therefore go and buy gold. Simply because gold is s save heaven and tends to rise in troubled times. Charts on the other hand won't see anything like that. So you may get a sell signal based on historical data when in fact the price is about to rise considerably. Regardles of any point of resistance or trading pattern. So if you're saying that we can only make educated guesses, then that's exactly my point. An educated guess for gold has nothing to do with a chart. It has to do with the current situation on this planet rather than historical figures and trend lines.



> The aim is not to be right 100% of the time. The aim is to maximise gain as a % of dollars risked.




I agree. And that's again exactly why I'm questioning a T/A on gold. I for one prefer to maximise my gain by looking at critical factors that may influence a price. I let you in on a secret, too: 

I'm not here to damn T/A or to proof that it doesn't work. I'm here to question it's method on certain stocks or commodities. Why? Because as far as I can see, this board is full of people who use charts. So it's time that somebody takes a different view. Not for the sake of it but to fire up a discussion just like the one we're having here right now. 

I most enjoy reading other people's opinion. People like yourself who actually know why they are doing certain things are well worth my time. There are just too many traders out there who believe in something just because they read a book or just because they visited a seminar. 

Happy trading

Stefan


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## ghotib

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

This feels like stupid question, but anyway...

When you buy or sell metals, you're dealing in ingots right?  So what's the physical process at settlement? i.e. how do the ingots get from seller to buyer? 

I love gold, but not in the form of ingots. We bought Newcrest at 1.90  ;D 

Ghoti


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Ah Stefan,

I am beginning to see where you are coming from.

&gt;&gt;I'm not after proofing that T/A is crap. I'm taking the view that there are too many T/A done on stocks who simply don't work that way. &lt;&lt;

I'm right with you here. I am very selective of with charts I trade. They have to have a history conforming to my particular brand of t/a. For instance NAB: A complete waste of time with my method! Never went near it when trading the ASX.

&gt;&gt;One of it is gold.&lt;&lt;

We wil just have to agree to disagree here 

&gt;&gt;Now there is of course also the simple fact that things work because so many people believe in it.&lt;&lt;

Yes is can be a self fulfilling prophecy, particularly in the futures markets. I don't use what most people use, but, I still look for what most people use cause I want to be in the market *before* the rest of the world ;D

&gt;&gt;Wayne, this is not what I'm trying to say. Of course there is no form of analysis that can predict the future. However, if the US is on terror alert, then I as a human being with some sort of intelligence, can take that into consideration. I will therefore go and buy gold. Simply because gold is s save heaven and tends to rise in troubled times. Charts on the other hand won't see anything like that. So you may get a sell signal based on historical data when in fact the price is about to rise considerably. Regardles of any point of resistance or trading pattern. So if you're saying that we can only make educated guesses, then that's exactly my point. An educated guess for gold has nothing to do with a chart. It has to do with the current situation on this planet rather than historical figures and trend lines.&lt;&lt;

There are quite a few strong hands that discount this view. These people/institutions have relegated gold to just another bloody commodity. However there still are a lot of people who take the same view as yourself. I'm on the sidelines for an opinion atm....but I believe fiat money will be in for a hard time in the future, so leaning towards the "gold is currency" view I suppose.

I do maintain that technical signals will get me into the market at an appropriate point. However, in the case of a shock event and gold spike, I keep a permanent contingency order in the market to catch it if I am sleeping or otherwise engaged.

&gt;&gt;I'm not here to damn T/A or to proof that it doesn't work. I'm here to question it's method on certain stocks or commodities. Why? Because as far as I can see, this board is full of people who use charts. So it's time that somebody takes a different view. Not for the sake of it but to fire up a discussion just like the one we're having here right now.&lt;&lt;

Fair enough too. It is from robust discussion that we all can learn from each other


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



> This feels like stupid question, but anyway...
> 
> When you buy or sell metals, you're dealing in ingots right?   So what's the physical process at settlement? i.e. how do the ingots get from seller to buyer?
> 
> I love gold, but not in the form of ingots. We bought Newcrest at 1.90   ;D
> 
> Ghoti




Hey Ghoti,

My charts above are gold futures. 1 contract is 1000 troy ozs.  Hardly any futures contracts ever go to actual physical settlement.

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/GC_spec.jsp


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## stefan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



> We wil just have to agree to disagree here




So be it then.  ;D



> These people/institutions have relegated gold to just another bloody commodity. However there still are a lot of people who take the same view as yourself.




I know. Due to the many gold related things one can trade these days, it would appear that gold is coming in line with other commodities. But while it has lost a lot of its former glory during the tech bubble where everybody was crying about its slow performance, things and times have changed. We are back in uncertain, unstable times and that's when people tend to remember the old values like gold. It has a magical touch to it and it won't go away that quick. 

I've never traded gold, but I sure wish I did 

Happy trading

Stefan


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## ghotib

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Thanks Wayne,

I noticed your post about the settlement fails over on propertyinvesting. I gather that you agree, as I do, with the comment from Gary North that systems fail "at the margins" i.e. where attention is not focussed. 

As a trader, your whole business would be dependent on settlements systems yes? I'd be interested in your thoughts about the probabilities and impact of failure of one or more of those systems, and what protections you have in place for yourself. 

I'm happy to read about them in a website article if that's easier for you.  

Cheers,

Ghoti


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



> Thanks Wayne,
> 
> I noticed your post about the settlement fails over on propertyinvesting. I gather that you agree, as I do, with the comment from Gary North that systems fail "at the margins" i.e. where attention is not focussed.
> 
> As a trader, your whole business would be dependent on settlements systems yes? I'd be interested in your thoughts about the probabilities and impact of failure of one or more of those systems, and what protections you have in place for yourself.
> 
> I'm happy to read about them in a website article if that's easier for you. *
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Ghoti



 I must admit that it is a source of alarm. I am still investigating the ramifications of settlement failure for my business.

If the system did fail, how long will it take to restore? This is an unknown! 

The article suggests having enough gold and silver coinage to get by until sytems were restored. I havn't gone to this length, though I know a few people who have.

You will have noticed a few have poo-hooed this as a measure over at PI. 

This makes me think it's not a bad idea.... hmmmmmm.


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## Redwing

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

"GO FOR THE GOLD" Not just at the Olympics huh??

My father was going to purchase aprox $400-500k of Gold certificates at the Mint, back when it was $320  (hmmm - 2 years ago?) anyway, he thought it would hit $400. Mum talked him out of it and he's kicked himself since  ;D

hindsight is a great thing huh

REDWING


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## Jett_Star

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Au is solid.  My guess is that people will see some very nice returns for awhile I think.


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold is on the retreat again but the bottoms are getting higher and higher. It should really start to test those resistance levels above USD400 in the next few months. (currently looking to break below 400).
Anyone out there still very bullish on gold? I'm hoping to get leverage via some of the smaller gold stocks. 

RichKid


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Link to Kitco 24H Gold chart. Currently trying to breach 400 after a sharp rise following Greenspan's higher US interest rates statement:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


RichKid


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Nudging towards $420 but it looks like it'll retreat again instead of breaking past $430. Mainly going up on oil price spike IMO. Technically I'm still with the bulls for a breach of $430 late this year or early next year- but you never know what might happen before that.

Currently at about $419.

The second chart (1975-2004) shows why I'm bullish on Gold, note the congestion around 400.


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Is anyone going to add to this thread or do we have to wait till the oil spike blows over?!! ; )

No point getting into gold once all the gains have been made. Some of the golds stocks are reviving already.

Gold is attempting to get at this year's high again, currently at 422.


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Well I'll chuck my iron in the fire then Rich 

Happens to be at an interesting point.

Looking at the chart, it has been in this channel since the May low...and Fridays action just touched the upsloping resistance line (depending on where you draw it)

So I'm betting on a retracement from this point before further upward moves. Gold has been liking the 61.8% retracement since the low, so that would indicate about 408. The bottom of the channel would be around 405-6.

Of course it could bounce from any level above that which would be VERY bullish IMO.

Now that I've said all that there is a high probability that Gold will completely ignore my retracement scenario altogether and continue straight up and wreck my neatly contructed channel lines!! LOL

Cheers


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## still_in_school

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Hi Waynel,

Last friday, sold off all my gold positions, not due to any real technical reason, but due to seasonal change... my main real concern is that, for the last 23 years (except for last year) Gold, has always fallen from higher highs, after the first few weeks of October and some February Months, after some very nice appreciation, 

though i could be wrong for this year, i've noticed already in some gold stocks, a slight selling off last friday afternoon... yet with today's market rally (its seems, my precious words have turned on me)

though if gold, does go heading south, other attractive commodities such as  nickel, copper and silver, are looking attractive.

Cheers,
sis


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Thanks a million folks for contributing to one of my pet topics!!

Gold is currently tickling 421 so it has retreated from the weekend high.

Thanks Wayne for the great chart, I'm a beginner at TA so I just use the free charts and I'm unable to show trend lines or detail so you've done a great job.

My personal view (from the charts I posted earlier) is that this attempt at piercing the next longterm resistance line (since about 1990 from memory), being the fourth upswing so far this year, will see another retreat towards 400 (to or through the boundary you show on your channel support). Without the oil spike gold would have struggled to come this far so soon. 

BTW, if oil would retreat obediently this week (before attacking $60 again) then gold could retreat with it (this is just my guess) and then gold can regain the attack on the resistance afresh. I'm trying to work out a timespan by the length and duration of each go at the $430 mark (or thereabouts). The higher tops and higher bottoms are ominous for the 'gold bears'. I expect gold to go to at least $500 in the next year or two, going by the charts.

Of course all I say above could be wrong but $430 will fall sooner rather than later IMHO. Oil is high, the US economy is running into trouble and Iraq isn't getting any easier and terrorist attacks are less likely to decrease than increase. only odd thing is that the US$ to my mind is going south, that appears to lower the US$ price of gold but I've heard analysts say that they aren't as closely related as they used to be. Think I'll get some charts at somestage and compare gold to the US$ over time...

I'm only just getting the hang of TA so I can't really understand fibonacci and gann patterns but I hope to get my head around it at some stage. 
BTW, do you subscribe to TradingTutors (free) Wayne? If nothing else you'll find it interesting (they use Gann methodology- David Bowden's mob) and show a lot of trades using swing charts, and they also look at US stocks. Bowden's products were too complicated and expensive for me so I just stick to basics.


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				still_in_school said:
			
		

> Hi Waynel,
> 
> Last friday, sold off all my gold positions, not due to any real technical reason, but due to seasonal change... my main real concern is that, for the last 23 years (except for last year) Gold, has always fallen from higher highs, after the first few weeks of October and some February Months, after some very nice appreciation,
> 
> though i could be wrong for this year, i've noticed already in some gold stocks, a slight selling off last friday afternoon... yet with today's market rally (its seems, my precious words have turned on me)
> 
> though if gold, does go heading south, other attractive commodities such as  nickel, copper and silver, are looking attractive.
> 
> Cheers,
> sis




One of the advantages of playing futures SIS, is the ease of short the SOB!

Gold having a big selloff tonight...been down to 414.something...just as I had hoped it would Mwahahahaha.

But you are right! other metals are going great. Particularly copper! (one of the commodities I trade) from 85c to 145c per/lb in the last 12 months...but being sold off tonight along with gold and silver.

Cheers


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Thanks a million folks for contributing to one of my pet topics!!
> 
> Gold is currently tickling 421 so it has retreated from the weekend high.
> 
> Thanks Wayne for the great chart, I'm a beginner at TA so I just use the free charts and I'm unable to show trend lines or detail so you've done a great job.
> 
> My personal view (from the charts I posted earlier) is that this attempt at piercing the next longterm resistance line (since about 1990 from memory), being the fourth upswing so far this year, will see another retreat towards 400 (to or through the boundary you show on your channel support). Without the oil spike gold would have struggled to come this far so soon.
> 
> BTW, if oil would retreat obediently this week (before attacking $60 again) then gold could retreat with it (this is just my guess) and then gold can regain the attack on the resistance afresh. I'm trying to work out a timespan by the length and duration of each go at the $430 mark (or thereabouts). The higher tops and higher bottoms are ominous for the 'gold bears'. I expect gold to go to at least $500 in the next year or two, going by the charts.
> 
> Of course all I say above could be wrong but $430 will fall sooner rather than later IMHO. Oil is high, the US economy is running into trouble and Iraq isn't getting any easier and terrorist attacks are less likely to decrease than increase. only odd thing is that the US$ to my mind is going south, that appears to lower the US$ price of gold but I've heard analysts say that they aren't as closely related as they used to be. Think I'll get some charts at somestage and compare gold to the US$ over time...
> 
> I'm only just getting the hang of TA so I can't really understand fibonacci and gann patterns but I hope to get my head around it at some stage.
> BTW, do you subscribe to TradingTutors (free) Wayne? If nothing else you'll find it interesting (they use Gann methodology- David Bowden's mob) and show a lot of trades using swing charts, and they also look at US stocks. Bowden's products were too complicated and expensive for me so I just stick to basics.




Thats a pretty workable analysis Rich. The tough thing about gold is this question: Is it true currency, or just another bloody commodity? I wouldn't have a clue. But I'm getting more and more convinced that the Krugerands my old man gave me aren't a bad thing...may even add to them.

As far as Gann and Fibonacci. I see these as two independant analyses.

Gann I don't have much time for. I've never seen anyone trade it successfully real time with any advantage over anyone else. It still comes back to successful moneymanagement more than anything. So why spend big bucks on a complicated style of analysis when you can learn simple momentum techniques for free, and get similar (I think better) results?

Fibonacci works because everybody is looking at the same levels...a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent. The only tricky part is guessing at which level the herd is going to tun at.

I very much like the KISS principle when trading. And that was probably the toughest thing for me to learn...complicated is not better.

When I look at my trading method, it is almost embarresingly simple. And I listen to no one when I trade. No newsletters, websites, mates...no one!

But you have to learn stuff, so in the beginning you have to listen to somebody and therein lies the trap. Most people doing the teaching aren't traders.....otherwise they would be trading not teaching.

Cheers


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> But I'm getting more and more convinced that the Krugerands my old man gave me aren't a bad thing...may even add to them.
> 
> So why spend big bucks on a complicated style of analysis when you can learn simple momentum techniques for free, and get similar (I think better) results?
> 
> Fibonacci works because everybody is looking at the same levels...a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent. The only tricky part is guessing at which level the herd is going to tun at.
> 
> I very much like the KISS principle when trading. And that was probably the toughest thing for me to learn...complicated is not better.
> 
> When I look at my trading method, it is almost embarresingly simple. And I listen to no one when I trade. No newsletters, websites, mates...no one!
> 
> But you have to learn stuff, so in the beginning you have to listen to somebody and therein lies the trap. Most people doing the teaching aren't traders.....otherwise they would be trading not teaching.
> 
> Cheers




WWW- Wise Words Wayne!

Do you know why I mentioned Gann? Because the levels on your charts looked like what I'd seen in that Bowden newsletter- just check it out for curiosity if you like, it looked like it had the types of levels you use. 
But I agree with your KISS principle, less stress too when things aren't complicated.

As I'm starting out I have open ears while trying to work out a proper system of my own based around TA and good money management skills in general. Hope it turns out to be as simple as yours!

Did you know of any Fibonacci books that you can recommend?

Have you seen what GLI (GoldLink IncomePlus) do?- they make money out of gold price fluctuations, on lease rates I think. It's more of an income stock so I don't invest in it but I just might put a bit away in it later. I found it through this portal, lots of good info on Gold including proper reports, but obviously it's biased in favour of gold as an investment http://www.australiangoldinvestment.com


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Wonder if this recent pattern is turning out to be a head and shoulders reversal?  My guess is it is. Or maybe a double top.

We'll know next week!


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

There have long been suspicions of gold market manipulation, here is some grist for the mill.

http://www.enthios.com/notfreenotfair_letter.pdf

Note: It's 71 pages.

Cheers


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Looks like Gold is range trading again- keeps hitting $430. With the US$ looking doomed I have a feeling it'll go through before long. BUT a lot of profit taking by speculators as it approaches $430. Only difference is the range has tightened, no more falls to below $400 like earlier in the year.

Gold 100 oz. (GC, COMEX)
Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Dec., 2004


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Looks like that longterm resistance at about $430 is now going to be solid support. US dollar not looking good either so the stronger the Euro gets the higher the gold price.


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## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold has jumped and fallen since the last chart (above). Currently about 437, IMO it's mainly a US dollar story (ie stronger USD, weaker USD gold price) but the oil price drop has also helped claw back the gold price. Interesting to see if it breaks below about $430 as that price level provided strong resistance for a long time. I don't expect the US dollar to go up for much longer, especially with the US not that worried about it's decline. 

USD- General view is that traders were covering short position in the USD. USD chart still looks bearish.

Any views? Or maybe we should give this a week to settle before commenting further.


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## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Interesting, if not amusing article about POG-

"Just to cover this year's foreign trade deficit of $600 billion would require $2,294 gold," he says. One lousy year's trade deficit! I have to laugh to keep from crying, although I end up doing both, and it must have looked pretty weird, because Mr. Casey actually turned away from me in disgust. He addressed the rest of the crowd and concluded his remarks about the trade deficit with, "And that's not the accumulated deficit, or those that may be run in the future." So it just keeps getting better and better! Finally, and I am all out of breath with excitement, he says, "If gold were simply to return to its 1980 high, it would be close to $2,000 in today's dollars - and the situation is much more serious now that it was in 1980." 

It should be worth $2,000 today? If the telephone were ringing right now, it would probably be you, calling me up, and asking "Hey! Mogambo! Did you know you were an idiot?" and I would say "Yes" and then you would want to know "Why isn't gold selling for $2,000 today?" And that, my little grasshopper, is the big question that GATA wants answered, because it looks like the whole thing is being manipulated, and if there is one sure-fire lesson about manipulations, they never last. And that means that, one day, gold WILL rise to its true value. And then we will see how accurate Mr. Casey is! If we can stop dancing for joy, that is. 

http://kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jan0502005.html


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Yes, interesting!! On a technical note Gold is flirting with falling below that long term resistance level, mainly driven by us dollar's recent fall imo. I wont be surprised if it falls below 420 and ranges about before breaking 500 sometime next year. It seems to go in little runs and then big ones like last year last big run. Oil and more instability will help gold too.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

I think BGF is undervalued at the moment. However gold seems to be gapping down. Do your own research etc.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Well, Gold has fallen through some key levels. Heading south alright, let's see how long it takes to stabilise and turnaround. Recent rumour about IMF selling (or about to sell) some gold to help out tsunami hit countries didn't help price. But US dollar may resume fall again and even things out. Might be some bargains soon in local gold stocks that are highly leveraged to the gold price.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Rich, imo $450 is back on the cards, expected the drop could fall further, i am looking for an entry on Lihir and will watch carefully, LHG might fall back to low 90's and when gold heads north again so will Lihir. There are a few things spooking gold atm, IMF is one but won't amount to much, expect US$ to be in the doldrums, but don't forget the Euro and its impact in gold.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

You heard it here first: Gold reversal on the cards. 

Maybe a little early to call, and may be the low volume on some of these contracts is giving rubbish results.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Rich, imo $450 is back on the cards, expected the drop could fall further, i am looking for an entry on Lihir and will watch carefully, LHG might fall back to low 90's and when gold heads north again so will Lihir. There are a few things spooking gold atm, IMF is one but won't amount to much, expect US$ to be in the doldrums, but don't forget the Euro and its impact in gold.




Agree with you and Markmau's chart (approaching a congestion zone below 420), down for now but will be up again to test $450 plus imo. Short term my energies will be in seeing when this bottoms out and starts reversing, gold still too high unless US$ weakens again. LHG does move well re the gold price but I prefer OXR, I suppose we can fine tune our entries once it goes lower. Won't be surprised if it heads much closer to $400, when gold moves it MOVES!


----------



## Cosmos

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

I am not a fan of gold nor do I bother following it much or trade it directly, but one thing that does show that gold is significantly weak atm is the fact that the USD has been heavily sold off and only come off the bottom slightly taking into account its fall, however gold went up and has now come all the way back again without the USD advancing far.

Question is, what’s going to happen when conditions are not favourable for gold??


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				Cosmos said:
			
		

> Question is, what’s going to happen when conditions are not favourable for gold??



We'll all sell our gold shares

I'm not so big on LHG either RK. I have just read too many comments about how the  SP should only be 80-90c, and that they have a large hedgebook liability (though hedging of course is sound buisness practice). Arguably however, the POG is built into BGF and NCM already, and perhaps not so much into LHG. OXR looks good to me as well because of the additional copper play.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Well its over $420 and the US dollars little recovery is looking very fragile, I dont suggest anybody should hold LHG, but if you get Lihir right its worth it, its not one for the nervous or unexperienced, my track record on LIhir has been average 2 wins to every loss in 2004 over 19 trades. If gold goes on a little run so will LHG (picked up Friday) and a $1.21 looks good to me initially. Be careful.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Just some goldies I am holding atm
NMC
BMO
OXR
who warrant some investigation i think, 
NMC due goldpour May,SED trying to buy out will fail, shares are trading between 5.7 to 6.0cps range, maybe a little fall back when SED bid fails, mid teens is mine own expectation.
BMO another near producer looks safe to me (all australian like NMC) just fallen below 30cps will test high 30's again soon.
OXR, dont need to say anything here 

CMX not holding just sold, looking to reenter.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

I have been holding LHG for a while now for covered calls, must admit that I haven't making any money for it since.

I am trading this stock a lot without successful and still have many position open.

I still believe LHG able to bounce back to $1.18, but there is a huge resistance at $1.11.

Very interesting to watch LHG this week.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold edging up right now 11.18pm 14/02/05, hope you find this interesting.
Gold investors should realize that Central Bank and IMF gold sales are already factored in and discounted by the gold market and have been for the last 40 years. This has been a constant and long-term discount and it has always been in the market. If all the official gold were not in the hands of these government institutions gold would most likely already be trading at over $750 an ounce.

The government of South Africa will not allow in the world of public opinion their most important industry to be once again rocked by any gold sales or “dumping” for political reason that would upset the price of gold, especially with the Rand so strong.

Black Empowerment Groups in South Africa which now own billions of dollars worth of gold mining assets will not sit around while a few European bureaucrats attempt to try and destroy their piece of the South African pie that they have been fighting for and struggling to attain for over a century. This group will rally a huge support base of international conservatives and liberals to their cause against the latest IMF scheme.

Politically in the U.S., the IMF would have tremendous opposition from both Democrats and Republicans in both the House and the Senate. For starters, here are just a few of the opponents who have voted against gold sales in the past and have expressed very strong opposition to any IMF gold sales. The bankers would have to run over this group to get the U.S. Congress, which has voting control over any and all IMF voting. The U.S. controls 17% of the voting rights of the IMF Charter and 85% is needed to sell any gold, therefore the U.S. controls this issue. Below are just a few of the opponents to the idea.

Senator Harry Reid (D – Nevada) already has voted against past sales and he is now Minority Whip, one of the most powerful positions in the U.S. Government.

Senator Tim Johnson (D- S. Dakota) ranking member of the Financial Institutions sub-committee of the Senate Banking Committee.

Congressman Tom Delay (R- Texas) House Majority Leader the second most powerful legislator in the House.

Congressman Jim Saxton (R- New Jersey) Chairman of the powerful House Armed Services Committee and ex-Vice Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. One of the most powerful elected officials in D.C.

Congressman Ron Paul (R – Texas) Vice Chairman of the Oversight and Investigations sub-committee on Financial Services, past sponsor of the Gold Coin Act of 1984, which passed by one of the widest margin of any monetary bill.

These men and many others have plenty of distrust for paper money schemes and understand that gold is an important monetary and reserve asset and should not be used to pay off bad loans made by the bureaucrats at the IMF.

The issue of helping poor third world countries to get debt relief could easily be accomplished by revaluing the gold held by the IMF (103.4 million ounces) and using the new value, a $42 billion asset, to balance the complete write off of the poor country loans. The IMF balance sheet would not feel the write off at all. Since many of these loans were quasi grants in the first place there would be no need to sell any gold. The money has already, in essence, been written off.

Some gold could be sold off-market directly to central banks. This was proposed by IMF deputy director Alassane Ouattara in 1999 but was quickly denounced by the IMF, as it would create a big headache for the banking establishment. This action would have opened up a philosophical can of worms. The perception of official recognition and validation that gold is a valuable reserve asset from some of the central bankers (those buying) and the opposite from the selling group (the IMF). Also the action of a central bank somewhere printing a few billion dollars worth of their currency and taking the gold would create a field day for the few dozen of the more or less rogue member countries of the IMF who would enjoy exchanging some paper and ink for some real money.

The poor countries in question that are referred to as HIPC’s (heavily indebted poor countries) owe about $11 billion to the IMF. At current prices this would amount to about 889 tonnes of gold. If this debt relief was to actually be accomplished by selling the gold it could surely take place over a 5 year period or about 175 tonnes per year that would equal 4% of the current annual global supply of gold.

It could have an effect on the price as supply is supply, but the gold would be surely snapped up by the bullion banks and mining companies that are “short” somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000 tonnes according to some very savvy analysts such as Frank Veneroso, John Embry and others.

The IMF can actually write off almost all the poor country debt right now because they have large loan loss reserves already set up. According to Professor Jeffrey Sachs, in 1999 the IMF had in the Reserve Account (General Department) $2.9 billion set aside, and in the ESAF (Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility) Trust Fund another $2.8 billion plus 30 % of all money owed to this Facility was actually grants so that would add another $1.5 billion. That would total about $7.2 billion and is probably much higher today. This could be used for the debt relief.

Special Drawing Rights (SDR’s) were a monetary creation by the IMF to handle trade imbalances after WW II. This quasi-money allowed countries to manage temporary international trade liquidity problems with loans and credits to avoid the problems associated with maintaining fixed exchange rates at that time. Today the IMF has on its books 21.4 billion SDRs valued at about $1.50 each or $32.1 billion. Currently the IMF is attempting to double the SDR amount via a special amendment and has received the approval from 131 members out of 185 countries. The U.S. Congress must approve this new increase for this amendment to the IMF Charter to go into effect. If so, then the new SDR’s would add another $32.1 billion of funds to the IMF’s ****nal of paper money.

This so-called reserve asset would be available for future needs. Certainly a portion of this could be used for debt relief. The U.S. Congress will probably go along with this increase but it could be a trump card used by the Congressman and Senators to bargain against any possible IMF gold sales. This group will “sort of” have the moral high ground. “OK you need to print more money – fine - just don’t sell the gold”. As an aside, this doubling of the SDR quasi money reserve most likely means the bankers are worried about future international monetary problems. In that regard you would think they would want to hold on to as much gold as possible.

Since central banks can literally create as much money as they desire, it would be very easy for them to add funds via the IMF’s NAB facility. (New Arrangement to Borrow) This is a facility set up to allow the IMF to borrow money from certain member countries to handle any crises that may occur internationally. It has been used 10 times since 1962. The amount of money available and standing by if needed is about $51 billion. The IMF could easily change a few by-laws and tap into this system instead of selling gold.

The highest portion of the IMF gold is from the U.S. and belongs to the U.S. taxpayer. This argument is a powerful point to be made. It brings up the question of why should the U.S. taxpayer pay for all these bad loans made by a non-U.S. organization? One would think that if the loans were properly structured they would create wealth, aid in poverty reduction in these poor countries and be paid off. The fact that an abnormally large percentage of IMF loans did not work shows that assets from U.S. citizens should be used in more efficient ways. A Joint Economic Committee Study in 1999 stated that “ the central IMF budget is treated as a classified document and IMF finances are very difficult to evaluate because of the obscurity of IMF financial statements”. The U.S. Congress and the gentlemen mentioned above will surely have the upper hand in any hearings on this subject and they will use it to beat back the gold sales scheme.

IMF Gold was supposed to be used for foreign exchange stability in the past. Since the IMF is now a global lending institution and fixed exchange rates are no longer a responsibility of the IMF, it should not be selling gold assets to pay off bad loans. It should return the gold to member nations or at least use the gold as a reserve asset as it was meant to be. Maybe the IMF should actually be buying gold to shore up its balance sheet.

The political and social pressure on the U.S. Congress from citizens that own gold and gold mining companies as an investment will be very strong as we go forward. Since many times congressional elections are decided by only 500-1,000 votes in many districts, Congressmen do not upset apple carts that are bi-partisan and since gold is owned by liberals and conservatives, republicans and democrats the best possible and potent political force in America will be at work against the IMF gold sales…..and that force is unstoppable. The force is a coalition. When the right and left get together in this country on any issue it is all over but the shouting. Since the IMF gold sales will harm the pocketbooks of Democrats as well as Republicans, it would seem the IMF votes needed to sell gold will not happen.

Central bankers will most likely continue, as usual, to scare the price of gold down from time to time by statements of gold sales. But they are all too keenly aware of the growing number of people who realize that the gold not paper and ink is the real stable monetary element. They also realize that the gold market should not be manipulated when it effects the global mining industry (not just gold), dozens of poor countries that rely on mining for the livelihood of it’s people and tens of millions of retirement and investment accounts of ordinary people the world over.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

_The poor countries in question that are referred to as HIPC’s (heavily indebted poor countries) _

This made me laugh - remember TPLAC and HRRC?


----------



## Bingo

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Could anyone provide a graph of the price of gold for the last 5 years or tell me where I could find one. I would like it in in both $A and $US if possible.


Bingo


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Bingo try this link it will give u current charts in both US & A dollars
www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html

Regards
brer


----------



## Bingo

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

brerwallabi,

Thank you for the link.

Bingo


----------



## DTM

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

I also sat through a presentation from two analysts regarding gold and oil.  The gold analyst basically showed that production is slowing down due to gold mines in the US and South African mines being depleted (Australia is the other major producer), and new production centres in third world countries not being as rich.  Also there are major concerns about infrastructure and politacal instability in those third world countries.  

The oil analyst basically showed that US demand for oil was outstripping supply, and future projections showed a continuing widening of the demand and supply graph.

This could cause major problems for the US deficit which has been growing in proportion to the rise of Gold prices, and the falling US dollar.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

February 23 (DowJones/MarketWatch) -- Comex April gold futures solidified their recent press higher Wednesday by confirming support at the $433-per-ounce level and ending the session above the $436 mark for the first time in 2005. April gold closed up 30 cents $436.10. The benchmark contract added 1.7 percent in Tuesday's dealings. In a bullish sign for the precious metal, gold held firm despite a modest recovery in the U.S. dollar. "A day of consolidation is by no means a bad thing with $428 to $432 now likely to be an area of support rather than resistance," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com. "The market simply needs to hold above $430.50 to keep the rally intact," market analyst Dale Doelling said...

GOLD is going heading to $450 and then beyond, and some of the little's will be doubling in price do some research quick and get on for some fast bucks,gold could well go $500 and beyond and the Aussie price will drag along with it, who thought that our market would break 4000 and head towards 4200, do some fast investigative work on gold and you might be suprised on how it is viewed, anyway thats enough raving from me


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Anybody got any thoughts on where the $US is heading, if you look at the recent decline of the US dollar from 7th Feb that is when gold headed north again. The IMF dump looks definately off and was never going happen anyway, so my view is the $450 could be tested again very soon, once it brakes through and when and if $450 becomes the new support, a few little Aussie explorers and near producers may have a lot of new interest, holding a couple big risers hopefully. If you dont have a junior goldie in your portfolio nows the time to get in. My opinion and not advice in any form.


----------



## roofus

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

brerwallabi- Correct, I think youve got it in one.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold looks good, especially for unhedged local juniors with the Aussie stabilizing. I think it may spike again but then retreat, so a small opportunity there before retreats and really runs hard at 500 in the medium turn. Good to see it above 430, favours the bulls imo.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

I just read in afr.com that china has flagged it may "unexpectedly introduce policies to implement flexible exchange rate" - but article seems to have dissapeared (under textiles/flashing red light or something). 

Go BSG/BGF/your favourite spec gold stock.

(though spot gold seems to be going south at the moment)


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold has had a small spurt recently, still generally up but threatening to retrace. Seems to have some correlation to oil, despite all the market turmoil recently it hasn't risen as much as you'd think for a safe haven commodity/currency. I expected a short term drop in oil based on the higher recent bottoms and the double top before another spurt but oil has risen a bit sooner than I anticipated so perhaps the same for gold? or another drop for gold before rising for the next oil spike?


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading up in 2nd half of year*

At the moment I believe we are seeing an opportunity to add to or build up positions in the gold mining stocks here and also in the US
The current bull market in gold has seen rallies in the 2nd half of the year for the last 3 years and I believe we will see that continue and test $500 towards the end of the year
Duetsche Bank has suggested $525 this year as possible from some sources I've heard
Worth watching to add positions on any pullbacks over May and June

R/
bvb


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/...SMUL&s=DX&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=BAR&d=MEDIUM

Interesting. Gold seems to have gapped up, without a lot of weakness in US$/DX (though we may see more weakness today/tomorrow).

Also, copper had big fall in LME. Copper had been moving somewhat as a proxy for gold.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*GOLD .... WHERE IT IS REALLY HEADED !*

GOLD .... WHERE IT IS REALLY HEADED ! 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOOK HERE ... LOOK HERE //// 

SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD ........ WELL ,THIS POST WILL CONTAIN 2 CHARTS LONGER TERM

HERE IS SOMETHING PROFOUND TO LOOK AT .....

IF YOU HAVE ANY UNDERSTANDING OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES THIS CHART WILL MAKE SENSE TO YOU .........

50 % RETRACEMENT REPRESENTS AN EQUILIBRIUM ....

WHAT IS THIS CHART TELLING ME ? IT SIMPLE.........
ALL THE EQUITY MARKETS IN THE WORLD ARE GOING TO HAVE A PROBLEM GOING FORWARD ........


----------



## DTM

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Thanks for the charts MW.  Thats a very good long term view of gold.  I had a friend who told me four/five years ago that gold was the way to go.  He had a whole garage full and left the Citibank energy derivatives desk to trade for someone in the top 200 rich list.  This rich guy liquidated all his business assets (firing everyone) and entrusted my friend with it all.  

Looking back, I wish I had taken his advice. 

Oh, and he also said he could see gold reaching 1k per gm.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Judging from the chart and from comments I've heard from Comsec chartists the next bottom will be the high 300's ie around 380, but 400 will be stubborn.
So around 400 will be the stage to top up for the next rally imo. I'd wait for the countertrend reversal ie to bounce off support.


----------



## appals

*Future price of Gold.*

Price of gold at US$417 surely must be approaching it's low. Value of US$ has to drop as the US twin deficits start to bite. As the price of gold seems to be related to the value of the US$ it seems to me to be inevitable.


----------



## chicken

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Maquarie ....today said gold will rally???....so its up....


----------



## Mofra

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

On the current softening in the price of gold,
   Does anyone know if the French Reserve went ahead with their plan to sell 200 tonnes of gold? If so surely that would be having the influence on world markets we are seeing currently. 

Personally I believe the gold price will soften however must not be far away from a bottom - reading about Greenspan calling the revaluation of the yuan an inevitability, surely this will effect the US$ and hence the price of gold


----------



## reichstag911

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold is definately topping / has topped and after extensive distribution will pullback to 375 and maybe 200 ish before taking off proper.


----------



## Mofra

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

reich,

US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

The US current account deficit will probably lead to a sharp drop in the dollar, OECD economists are predicting. They have actually modelled a 30% fall in the dollar's value against other currencies, it found such a drop would generate inflationary pressures that would likely be met with increases in interest rates. 
Can anyone see this resulting in the coresponding increase in the POG, am I being over optimistic. The other impact of a dollar fall could be devasting for economies, also our Aussie residential property market and the sharemarket, looks to me like cash and gold could be looking good.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

My view is that we have seen the bottom for the USD for quite a while. This is based on both charts and observed sentiment over the past 9 months or so which to me strongly suggests a bottom.

The US deficits have received a lot of attention but there are countries in a far worse position as far as their Current Account position is concerned. These are the ones whose currencies ought to be avoided. These countries are called "New Zealand" and, the worst one is called "Australia".

I am not holding or buying gold right now but if I was then I would either get physical or trade in a way that gains if gold rises in AUSTRALIAN Dollars. In contrast, those who have profited from gold in recent times have done so because it has risen in US Dollars. In Aussie Dollars it's gone basically nowhere. This will change if the USD has bottomed.

This is opinion not investment advice, do your own research etc.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

If your right then $640 Aus POG surely is on the cards and that means very good news for a few junior goldies here.


----------



## reichstag911

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> reich,
> 
> US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?




All based on TA - i don't do funny-mentals.

I am NOT bullish on world finances: there will be an implosion at some stage - just don't know when...

I called the impending USD rally in Nov 04 and am still USD bullish.

Cheers.


----------



## reichstag911

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

The fact that this gold thread exists and is so popular is an excellent contrarian confirmation that gold has topped for the move.
Trust me.

Similar with China - being spread all over the mainstream media this year.
It will pullback.

CRB commodities index chart is topping this year it seems. Just waiting for confirmation.

The corrupt fascist junta have ramped the U.S. market nicely since the massive bear market that started in 2000 - and may continue to do so for a long time before it can't prop it up anymore.

But that might not happen til next decade.  
The PPT is alive and well and should never be underestimated.
USA will be fighting for its survival after all.

It will lose to Chindia but hey that's life !

My long term U.S. charts indicate that the DOW will prolly break down BIG TIME around 2012-2014: MAJOR BEAR PARTY TIME.

IF it's a deflationary depression - everything may get pulled down with it including PM's.

Tasty bear-fest coming up for later this year to 06/07   : )

It's a big wave 4 down for Australia.

XJO topped in March 05 which i called in March 05...
(posted it at newsgroup)


Cheers.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				reichstag911 said:
			
		

> ...The corrupt fascist junta have ramped the U.S. market nicely since the massive bear market that started in 2000 - and may continue to do so for a long time before it can't prop it up anymore.
> 
> But that might not happen til next decade.
> The PPT is alive and well and should never be underestimated.
> USA will be fighting for its survival after all.
> 
> It will lose to Chindia but hey that's life !
> 
> My long term U.S. charts indicate that the DOW will prolly break down BIG TIME around 2012-2014: MAJOR BEAR PARTY TIME.
> 
> IF it's a deflationary depression - everything may get pulled down with it including PM's.
> 
> Tasty bear-fest coming up for later this year to 06/07   : )
> 
> It's a big wave 4 down for Australia.
> 
> XJO topped in March 05 which i called in March 05...
> (posted it at newsgroup)
> 
> 
> Cheers.



So let me get this right... You are saying that the XJO is headed down big time and that the top was in March this year but that the US markets may be propped up by the PPT?

Based on that it would make sense to short the XJO and keep well away from the US markets.

I agree with your post overall, China and the CRB etc, but am not convinced about the US bit. If they were going to prop the markets then wouldn't they have done so during 2000-2002? I am aware of the PPT but just wondering why they would act so forcefully now when they didn't last time?   

Timing - you mention 06/07 - would that be October 2006 low by any chance? Just going by what I have read elsewhere on this subject as they all seem to mention Oct 06 but then they are talking mostly about the US markets.

A lot of questions I know but it looks like you are the person to ask...


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Is this the turnaround for gold now, starting to work its way back up, next week looks like the testing time, its being following oil closely lately so expect a big jump next week. 
Could there be a gold boom?


----------



## DTM

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Is this the turnaround for gold now, starting to work its way back up, next week looks like the testing time, its being following oil closely lately so expect a big jump next week.
> Could there be a gold boom?




Looking at the charts, my thoughts are that oil is carrying on its up trend.  I expect it to keep on rising in the short to medium term, so outlook for gold is bullish with US and Australian markets bearish.

Just my two bobs worth...


----------



## Profitseeker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Gold is on the retreat again but the bottoms are getting higher and higher. It should really start to test those resistance levels above USD400 in the next few months. (currently looking to break below 400).
> Anyone out there still very bullish on gold? I'm hoping to get leverage via some of the smaller gold stocks.
> 
> RichKid




Very bullish. I am acquiring as many Gold stocks as I can. The big producers are not managing to renew their supplies of gold. Therefore in my books and according to the law of supply and demand  1) there will be further consolidation in the market 2) Gold prices will continue to go up 3) So will the price of gold shares.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Bull markets tend to suffer a major setback at some point. For example the 1987 stock market crash or the gold plunge in the mid-1970's.

I have no hard evidence of it actually being in progress but looking at the general economic picture I do get the feeling that such a point may be upon us with the gold bull. 

The credit boom seems to be slowing, housing is slowing or actually falling depending on location, bonds point towards a slowdown, US stocks are going nowhere. Just be careful.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold still has a huge and increasing demand coming from Asia, as China and India develop the demand for gold will not be able to be met, these cultures value gold highly and with the newly created wealth in these countries this demand will soar.The US dollar will fall eventually and possibly soon, interests rates up to and $500 US is definately going to happen, I have read some journalists and some so called analysts spruiking gold at possibly upto $1000.Hmmm


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading*

Gold has experience high volatility recently. Will it head down again to retest the upper reaches of the triangle, or on to new highs? No view personally yet, although  last week I thought it'd retrace further, consolidate and then rally to 500.

....Just attached a daily chart, downtrend channel in last few weeks, lower lows, lower highs (so far).


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Rich it seems currently to be heading north again, there are a few gold stocks that have fallen of late and this move might be a good sign for them. I hope this  time it continues up to test $500 if it clears $475, its had a few cracks at this level recently to fall back, anything happening in the land of free this week that you know about that could drag it back?


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Well gold has surprised, testing the recent highs, Wayne had some great info on COT data and graphs, can't recall in which thread it was posted atm but you'll find it on his blog.

Here's the weekly chart, nice long channel, if this isn't a monster uptrend I don't know what is, could easily fall back to retest the trendline or could challenge the recent highs and get on with it, or could fall back to retest that triangle from a few months ago. Seems to be all pointing to circa 440 as a great entry point, if it falls to that level. 

Did I say this already? I'm bullish (but not for short term trades imo, wait and see, interesting to see how the chart compares to the fundamentals and the COT data). No fib levels, sorry, don't have the tool.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Latest available COT data

Comm's are nett short, but coming off lows, seems a short signal has not come off. So must mean long!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Latest available COT data
> 
> Comm's are nett short, but coming off lows, seems a short signal has not come off. So must mean long1




Hi Wayne,
Going by the COT data a quick pullback (back to about where that green line was recently) could see gold retest 440 and then get on with it, maybe I'm seeing what I want to see. Thanks for the great chart, very clear, I often get confused with COT data.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

 *NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures ran up to an 18-year high Thursday, extending the double-digit gains seen in the previous session, while copper futures continued their march to all-time highs.*

Gold for December delivery traded as high as $486.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was last up $6.70 at $485.80.

The precious metal had surged $10.10 on Wednesday.

"Gold's move to $480 makes further near-term strength likely," said Morgan Stanley technical analyst Mark Newton, who sees a possible retest of the December 1987 highs near $500, then a move up to the $515 to $525 range.

Merrill Lynch technical analyst Dennis Mark believes the run-up in gold prices toward $500 will give the gold market a psychological boost, and continue propel gold stocks.

December copper tacked on 1.4 cents to a fresh all-time high of $1.949.

CS First Boston attributed the gains to continued speculation regarding China's potential large short position and its ability to export metal in order to cover.

The speculation surfaced after the Times of London reported on Tuesday that a Chinese copper dealer, who worked at the Chinese State Reserve Bureau, disappeared after selling an estimated $800 million worth of copper short.  :rocketwho


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold Where is it heading?
Answer $500 US before Xmas watch LHG and CMX fly today.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Gold Where is it heading?
> Answer $500 US before Xmas watch LHG and CMX fly today.




It will be interesting what traders to with the $500 figure. It's a pretty important psychological level.

My guess is that either it'll be resistance, or they'll get excited and buy straight through it.

(hows that for hedging myself  )


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

A comparison of bulls and bears.
Suggests a speculative jump to 500 in the near term and then a retracement, volatility no matter what happens so it'll be exciting for most- lots of emotion, gold does that to people.



> Mining Weekly- News Today
> http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=77663
> 
> *Debate rages over sustainability of gold's assault on $500/oz*
> 
> 
> The gold price, which yesterday touched a near 18-year high of over $482/oz, appears to be continuing its steady assault on the magical $500/oz level, with bulls still outnumbering bears.
> 
> But analysts are mixed as to whether the march can be sustained.
> 
> T-SEC gold analyst Nick Goodwin takes a bearish stance, saying that hedge funds and speculators have pushed it to its current level, and that a sharp drop should not be discounted.
> 
> Speculative buying, which results in rapid upswings, could see selling at the top of the curve, without any buyers. As an example, Goodwin cites India, which buys a third of the world's gold. The market in India is driven by jewellery makers, who are loathe to buy at current levels.
> 
> So, argues Goodwin, the dynamics of supply and demand will see the price falling back sharply.
> 
> This situation is enhanced by the fact that these buyers also hold gold in reserve and India has a healthy scrap market.
> 
> For the full year, the World Gold Council expected demand from India to push up to 850 t, an increase of about 230 t on last year. Already, the first half of the year saw demand in India up 180 t year-on-year, but the second-half seems to be slowing down somewhat. However, as the jewellery makers evaporate from the market, the price will drop sharply - even though it may have been pushed to $500 - and shares will bear the brunt of this fall, as they tend to outrun the gold price.
> 
> Not so, says a bullish David Davis, gold analyst at Andisa Securities, in his paper 'The Future of Gold'. Davis predicts gold at $700/oz by the end of 2008 and, by the end of the decade he forecasts that the yellow-metal would have risen to $800/oz.
> 
> In the third quarter of the year, the yellow metal averaged $439,72, a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase.
> 
> By the end of next year, he says, gold will have marched to $600.
> 
> Davis bases his predictions on supply-and-demand dynamics, which are predicted to “undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and Central Bank supply and increased demand from China and investment”.
> 
> Supply-and-demand factors could - on their own - “trigger a quantum upward charge in the gold price, enough to sustain a new dollar gold price equilibrium”.
> 
> And if this was not enough to push the price upwards, Davis argues that the US dollar will continue to underpin the price and push it further.
> 
> The reason for the price moving to stratospheric highs, says Davis, is that supply is falling behind demand and no substantial new reserves are being found to replace dying mines.
> 
> While not a new phenomenon, he says that this phenomenon has previously been hidden behind hedging and Reserve Bank sales.
> 
> But, this cannot happen ad infinitum and, when the turnaround comes, the gold price will move up rapidly.
> 
> With too little exploration, dwindling reserves, dying mines and shortened life-of-mine, Davis sees a recipe for gold's profitability into the future.
> 
> And then there is China; this red-hot economy is likely to keep growing its demand for commodities, although it has stabilised from its recent growth patterns. Despite this, the country is likely to double its economy in the next ten years.
> 
> Another bear is MD of Barclays Capital's Mining and Metals division, Gerard Holden. Speaking at an Absa Corporate and Merchant Bank resource breakfast this week he called the peak at current levels.
> 
> “In the case of gold, we believe that this price move will peak around current levels with a reduction back to $350 (an ounce to) $375 per ounce in the medium term.”
> 
> However, he did temper that statement with a warning: “Now I need to caution that an unexpected event which damages global economic growth or raises global tension would impact upon these price outlooks.”
> 
> Respected precious-metals observer Paul Walker, who leads Gold Fields Mineral Services, echoes Davis's sentiments that the gold price is sustainable.
> 
> In response to emailed questions, he tells Mining Weekly Online that the gold price will continue its march over $500, and this march is sustainable.
> 
> He adds, however, that a “lack of Indian demand at high prices will constrain the highs somewhat, as will higher scrap (prices)”.
> 
> He confirms that much of the volatility in the price is due to speculators.
> 
> Another dimension to the debate was added in the inaugural edition of the 'Yellow Book' released this month where Gary Mead looks at the outlook for gold over the next 12 to 18 months.
> 
> He says the greatest unknown is how far and for how long the hedge funds will be prepared to keep the current momentum going.
> 
> “What goes up eventually will come down; but it may go much higher and perhaps even break through $500 an ounce in 2006, before it does come down,” Mead writes, adding that he foresees an average 2006 price of $430 an ounce.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Brief article on Gold with cot charts and some simple TA, shows importance of 500 level, double the value of a double bottom some years ago at 250 and same level as a double top a few years before that: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/members/services/gold/bgscommentary.aspx?ID=338

The last gold chart I posted would show that gold has hit the upper boundary of that channel, so it either bounces downwards gradually in the opposite direction (circa 440/450) or it pullsback (as it has so far) and then spikes through the channel top- according to previous price action.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> The last gold chart I posted would show that gold has hit the upper boundary of that channel, so it either bounces downwards gradually in the opposite direction (circa 440/450) or it pullsback (as it has so far) and then spikes through the channel top- according to previous price action.




Rich your starting to sound like a chartist lol, I hope your interpretation of spiking through the channel top is the correct analysis of the current gold chart.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Rich your starting to sound like a chartist lol,




If only!! But I hope I'm not going to end up like the majority who aren't very good (stage at which I'm atm), btw, I wonder what a good chartist is?? (no jokes please from you funnymentals ppl)

I seem to be re-learning things all the time, still trying to figure out how to draw simle trend line and what it actually singifies, the simpler it gets the better I sleep at night, it also helps to have strong, clear trends like with these commodities. Now to get more experience/expertise in money and risk mgmt....that's the key.


----------



## golddust

*Gold*

I follow Gold shares. Particularly interested in companies listed with interests in the Western Australian Goldfields. Anybody else here do the same?


----------



## Dan_

*Re: Gold*

I do hold a few gold stocks (mining in WA) and am looking to develop my understanding the mining process better, as well as the gold market.

Look forward to your inputs


----------



## golddust

*Gold*

Gold currently trading over $500.  Yippee  

roll on Gold, it's off to the moon we go....
I brought Gold shares 5 years ago.....and up they go :dance:


----------



## golddust

*Gold Price*

Gold now 504.95  :bananasmi....come on gold bugs where is the cheers  :dance:


----------



## wayneL

*Re: Gold Price*

Golddust,

We appreciate your enthusiasm and input.

Just to keep the forum tidy and to ensure continuity, keep all posts related to one topic in one thread.

Thanks


----------



## Profitseeker

*Re: Gold Price*

What about joining this discusion to the other gold ones that have been going a while?

<<<Great idea Profitseeker...done  >>>


----------



## wayneL

*Re: Gold Price*

Golddust,

Though shalt not insult the moderator


----------



## RichKid

*Re: Gold Price*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Golddust,
> 
> Though shalt not insult the moderator




Maybe we should have that in the 'code of conduct', but then I'm clearly biased....

A chart of Gold 100 oz. (GC, COMEX) Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Dec., 2005. 

Is this going to find support above the magic 500 level or not? If not, I reckon retracement as I guessed earlier; if it does, then at least another burst higher before a retest, as often occurs. I really don't know, new territory for most gold traders out there (except the old hands).


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Okay so it was just a matter of time before it corrected after that near vertical rise, bearish candles and a classic spike top, increase in trading costs in Japan have dampened speculators too. I wonder what the latest COT charts are telling us overall???

Retracing to that moderately strong area of support at $500, if that level survives this month it can be considered strong support imho- looking for a new short term trend then.

Currently near the upper end of that channel posted in one of my earlier charts, will be back to the drawing board for me soon.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Here   are  2  pictures  of  Gold's  best  friend

  before  and  after    ........................


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

pg-2 .....................


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> I wonder what the latest COT charts are telling us overall???




Getting close to extremes again. But thats not telling us anything of use ..... yet. Stay tuned!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> Here   are  2  pictures  of  Gold's  best  friend
> 
> before  and  after    ........................




Haven't the trends disengaged? I haven't looked at a USD/USDGoldprice chart for awhile.....here it is (USD index (DX) and pog in USD).

Looks like the USD is misbehaving, we all know that gold is going to go up in the medium to long term right? So start falling USD, right now! There you go, it should start doing it now....hahaha, damn currencies, sometimes they think they're commodities and vice versa...

This is why you need good money and risk mgmt, even the most symmetrical chart like the one below can get you (you just can't predict these things so consistently, just see how it all went haywire towards the end of the current period.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Getting close to extremes again. But thats not telling us anything of use ..... yet. Stay tuned!




Thanks Wayne,
Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?

For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top. 

More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm

The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??


----------



## Porper

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Thanks Wayne,
> Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?
> 
> For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top.
> 
> More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm
> 
> The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??





 I read somewhere that if you looked at a chart and wasn't too sure where it was heading, get a 10 year old and ask them whether it is going up, down or sideways.Apparently they are usually correct as they have no preconceived ideas  so as to influence them.

My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.

Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.

I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Porper said:
			
		

> I read somewhere that if you looked at a chart and wasn't too sure where it was heading, get a 10 year old and ask them whether it is going up, down or sideways.Apparently they are usually correct as they have no preconceived ideas  so as to influence them.
> 
> My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.
> 
> Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.
> 
> I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.




I've got no arguments with that, KISS for sure.

The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.

The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.

Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.

Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks  


Cheers


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Saw this on Kitco.com about the dynamics of the market, looks like gold focused funds are a new source of physical demand: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2005/15/c0642.html


----------



## Porper

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> I've got no arguments with that, KISS for sure.
> 
> The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.
> 
> The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.
> 
> Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.
> 
> Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks
> 
> 
> Cheers





I can't disagree with that.The difference is whether you have time to look for E.Wave counts etc.I think if you work full time it can get too time consuming, so your stop loss maybe has to be a bit wider to take the everyday fluctuations.

If I were a professional trader I would certainly be looking at it differently.

Maybe in a year or so  

As for drawdown, well as I understand it, tighter stops = less percentage of winners, better win/loss ratio, less drawdown, bigger profits. No lose situation   in theory anyway.


----------



## MalteseBull

*Gold Price in 2006*

Hi everyone,
I decided to join up today to learn (i am a newbie) about stocks...
Just regarding gold..
I think Gold Should finish at just under or equal to $500 this year.. 
I have read many reports saying $525 -$550 with political tension and a weaker US Dollar backing this..

Just wanted to know whether it's worth holding on to Gold Stocks due to the lowest price of Gold since Nov 21st.

have a merry christmas and a happy new year


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: Gold Price in 2006.*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> Hi everyone,
> I decided to join up today to learn (i am a newbie) about stocks...
> Just regarding gold..
> I think Gold Should finish at just under or equal to $500 this year..
> I have read many reports saying $525 -$550 with political tension and a weaker US Dollar backing this..
> 
> Just wanted to know whether it's worth holding on to Gold Stocks due to the lowest price of Gold since Nov 21st.
> 
> have a merry christmas and a happy new year




Hi

The price of gold in its current cycle is dependent upon the size and the compounding increases in the US deficit, so wherever the deficit goes thats where gold will go.


----------



## mime

*Re: Gold Price in 2006.*

Gold dropped alot recently. I'm not so sure about what the future is. I thought it wouldn't rise above $450 an oz for some time. I was wrong. I think the US ecomomy has a positive future so with that inmind gold probably won't do that much.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: Gold Price in 2006.*

US central bank keeps increasing interest rates which attracts foriegn dollars into the US to meet the shortfall of the deficit and as the US does this and the deficit gets bigger the yanks keep buying gold as a deficit devalues the price of the US dollar and institutions have set formulas that automatically advise them when to buy gold and when to sell off gold in accordance with the US economic variables.


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: Gold Price in 2006.*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> the yanks keep buying gold as a deficit devalues the price of the US dollar and institutions have set formulas that automatically advise them when to buy gold and when to sell off gold in accordance with the US economic variables.




Really?

Much of the physical gold buying is going into jewellery and into investment demand from Asia and the Middle East. The US only has buying from hedge funds who are probably just trading the paper, not actually taking delivery of physical gold.

US gold stockpiles are most likely 0. Fort Know maybe say they have the largest reserves in the world but with no audit, how do you know?

Gold has surprized me in the last 2 months with its parabolic run to $540 USD, off course the pullback was needed. It may continue on to make it a 6th year of gains, but I think 2006 will be flat for gold shares before a major move up in 2007 to $600

The Asian demand is the only factor I can't grasp, well the fact they are buying so aggressively.
The first 6 months, it'll head down before rallying from July to the end of 2006 as it has done the past 3 years. Whether it'll end up for the year, I wouldn't want to stay. If it closes around $490 this year, then I think its possible


----------



## wayneL

*Re: Gold Price in 2006*

Fundamentals? What?

I'll just take the signals off the chart. I'm long!

Charts and discussion here(File to big to upload) 

And here is my entry


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: Gold Price in 2006.*



			
				bvbfan said:
			
		

> Really?
> 
> Much of the physical gold buying is going into jewellery and into investment demand from Asia and the Middle East. The US only has buying from hedge funds who are probably just trading the paper, not actually taking delivery of physical gold.
> 
> US gold stockpiles are most likely 0. Fort Know maybe say they have the largest reserves in the world but with no audit, how do you know?
> 
> Gold has surprized me in the last 2 months with its parabolic run to $540 USD, off course the pullback was needed. It may continue on to make it a 6th year of gains, but I think 2006 will be flat for gold shares before a major move up in 2007 to $600
> 
> The Asian demand is the only factor I can't grasp, well the fact they are buying so aggressively.
> The first 6 months, it'll head down before rallying from July to the end of 2006 as it has done the past 3 years. Whether it'll end up for the year, I wouldn't want to stay. If it closes around $490 this year, then I think its possible




American institutions are buying big....its how they hedge their risk in regards t US economics. 

They have set formulas that take into at least 5 variables (delta, gamma, theta, vega and rho all based upon the assumption of constant volatility of the Black-Scholes bionomial tree) then the final one is VaR and C-VaR and all the trading is automated by a computer program that continually has the many different changes of the variables over the entire world markets, it also takes into account the current demand from gold for human purposes but they are using gold buying and selling it to hedge risk.

I REALLY dont deny that its being used to make jewllery as well but all these set formulas are used for every type of option, warrant, futures contract and any type of derivative and the underlying asset of every kind is taken into account. Humans only oversee that the computerised trading systems by every financial institution in the world does not falter.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

COT for 27Dec05, if that's a bottom for the Commercials (Red line) then a short term retracement on the cards? Maybe a descending triangle finding support around 490?? A quiet time this time of year so the market should wake up next month.


----------



## phoenixrising

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hiya Rich,

Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.

Are you having success understanding it?

Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)

Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				phoenixrising said:
			
		

> Hiya Rich,
> 
> Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
> 
> Are you having success understanding it?
> 
> Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
> 
> Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
> 
> Cheers




A long way from being an expert pheonix  

But, I am told that the great bulk of commercial hedging is done OTC (Over the counter) rather than through the futures markets.

So we don't know the true commercial position.

I have no way of verifying if this is true, just regurgitating what I was told.

Also the latest extreme short position of commercial traders in the COT report didn't result in a turn of market. So maybe its true.

Futures markets tend to be very technical so fib levels and suchlike are probably as good a guide as any, in the short term at least.

I'm thinking a short might be my next trade based on what I'm seeing right now (swing trade) but this opinion could change rapidly depending what happens tomorrow.

Long term, a lot of smart folks are accumilating as much as they can....physical holdings. As usual, this could either mean further upward pressure on price, or, the contrarians would contend that sentiment is way to bullish and that this points to a top being in.

For mine, I'll take any technical excuse to be long.   But I'm not seeing that right at the moment.

IMO of course, and do your own research etc etc etc

Cheers


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				phoenixrising said:
			
		

> Hiya Rich,
> 
> Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
> 
> Are you having success understanding it?
> 
> Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
> 
> Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
> 
> Cheers




Hey Phoenix,
I'm not sure myself, just reading the lines like a normal chart and looking for patterns. The source of the chart (the upperman site) which I mentioned ealier has some explanations. I'd be more inclined to go with the gold price chart atm, looks like 520 is capping prices, maybe another decline to 490 (minor support)?


----------



## smrt-guy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I'm desperately hoping for a correction back down to $490 so I can find another decent entry into stocks like OXR, NCM, GGN and a few small caps.

I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				smrt-guy said:
			
		

> I'm desperately hoping for a correction back down to $490 so I can find another decent entry into stocks like OXR, NCM, GGN and a few small caps.
> 
> I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though




Might just settle on 500 if at all, nothing to do but watch now, no open interest to speak of either.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				smrt-guy said:
			
		

> I'm desperately hoping for a correction back down to $490 so I can find another decent entry into stocks like OXR, NCM, GGN and a few small caps.
> 
> I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though




We shall see what we shall see. Some Elliott Wavers fully expect it below 500 this month. Maybe too many expect the retracement to 485ish, hence the market wants to take money from these people.

Me, I wouldn't have a clue!! I'm flat ATM.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> We shall see what we shall see. Some Elliott Wavers fully expect it below 500 this month. Maybe too many expect the retracement to 485ish, hence the market wants to take money from these people.
> 
> Me, I wouldn't have a clue!! I'm flat ATM.




I think its going to go to 600+ slowly now in a year or 2, but from then on, im not sure, probably start a down trend

This is just my prediction


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold is a tough one at the moment...it has risen with alarming magnitude and with the fed increasing US interest rates that strengthens the US dollar..i believe that there are a lot less riskier investments around at the moment that can give you your 20-50% without the the huge movement and risk like gold.

I think that probabilities of gold going up are good over the 1 to 2 year time period but i would look at some type of leverage so i could continue with other good opportunities in the market.

This is my strategy and i have been looking at some type of leveraged financial instrument such as those gold commodity call warants zauwma with an expiry date at decenber 2013, so time is on your side.

I would love someone to give me a summary on lihir gold, newcrest and any other gold stock that has real gold and is selling and something that the market hasnt already priced future growth into probally thats why i am more inclined towards the gold call warrant as it is reliant totally upon movements in the price of gold.


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

The analyst.

Do the warrants have time decay?

I dont really know that much about warrants so just asking.

Another direct gold investment is GOLD on asx but it has a very small time decay.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> The analyst.
> 
> Do the warrants have time decay?
> 
> I dont really know that much about warrants so just asking.
> 
> Another direct gold investment is GOLD on asx but it has a very small time decay.




Yes, they would have time decay but it would be very small as equity call and put warrants are just longer dated options, just give you a little or a lot more time. 

The code i quoted was from the asx and thier is only one quoted and the asx is much more simpler that the sfe as the future broker require deposited money as insurance if trades go against you.

So if you are long on gold and u dont want to use a lot of capital and leverage you can just get the call warrant and sit there....but i cant give you advise and to be honest an entry point into gold at the moment is difficulrt as most will agree.

Look what happened about 2 yrs ago when it shot from the 300's into the 420 mark then it didnt rise until just lately.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Popped up to $526 on the feb contract in trading so far this year.

I think this puts the EW ABC correction scenario to <$500 in a spot of bother. Trading after holiday breaks can tend to be a bit emotive, so we'll see if this carries any significance once NY & Chicago opens.

S&P futs up 6 points before the bell also...like I say...emotive. 

We're seeing lots of emotiveness so far this year huh?   

Cheers


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

analyst


I meant GOLD as in the code GOLD which is a direct purchase of bullion stored in a london vault.

Not levereged though although you can margin loan against it at 50%.

Was really just for interest sake


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

My very confused attempts at applying EW to Gold, the only counts I'm confident of are Waves 1 & 2 in the monthly chart. 

Weekly: If you're super bullish it really looks like this wave 3 is going on forever with no sign of a Wave 4 yet (unless you count that retracement to 489 as the end of Wave 4 and last month's high as the end of wave 3)....who knows?

Any other takers trying this EW stuff.....MarketWaves, still around for an update?

GP and other readers of Nick's book, I know some of you were trying out EW, like to have a go at Gold? Maybe Nick'll help out too???


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Oi Vay! We been up to 531.8 on the feb contract....SO FAR!

Equities gap closed...Now it gets interesting, we in for an interesting ride this year IMO.

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Oi Vay! We been up to 531.8 on the feb contract....SO FAR!
> 
> Equities gap closed...Now it gets interesting, we in for an interesting ride this year IMO.
> 
> Cheers




zgg06 high 535.90

check out equities also...a very wide ranging day due to FOMC minutes http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...AAB-49B3-A6F5-1F3F58802CB3}&siteid=mktw&dist=

interesting times lie ahead with a range of predictions from 30% up to 30% down.

Just make sure yer backside is covered folks.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

gold feb06, open interest is picking up. Retesting those recent highs.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Richkid

just wondering if u can post a price chart of Gold from 1980 till now?

Thanks

MS


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Richkid
> 
> just wondering if u can post a price chart of Gold from 1980 till now?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> MS




Here it is Michael (from 1975 in fact). From www.Kitco.com. 

I suggest you get used to looking up and posting charts yourself as it will be beneficial for your general trading education- I'm happy to help provided you spend some time browsing those sites yourself. It's very easy once you put a bit of effort in to it (finding and posting charts that is) but it can be time consuming to do too often. Hope you're finding these commodity threads informative- but remember it's all speculation rather than advice so be careful.

(Gold retracing atm from highs, but only by a few dollars so far...)


----------



## phoenixrising

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

$540, up $15 in 24 hrs.

Broken thru $538 Dec hi.

Even my yo-yo as a kid couldn't swing like this  

Sheesh!!!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				phoenixrising said:
			
		

> $540, up $15 in 24 hrs.
> 
> Broken thru $538 Dec hi.
> 
> Even my yo-yo as a kid couldn't swing like this
> 
> Sheesh!!!




''Sheesh!!!" You can say that again!! I can't believe it, this is either the start of another strong run or I'd say it's a short term top...we'll know next week. It's the steepness of this climb up that makes me think it'll retrace.


----------



## kerosam

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

what if gold price hits too high? does it affect the economy like rising interest rates? will it cause an inflation?


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Just done a quick search for why gold skyrocketed in 79 and the best I could come up with was that physical demand skyrocketed. *shrug* tired and cant really be bothered researching it that much.

Anyone have any knowledge on what the deal with gold was?  I would have thought gold was more likely to peak in 87.

Anyway dont really know what gold might do but the chart looks an awfull lot like 77-79.

In terms of such a fast advance, yep sure is but look at that spike in 79-80, would put the price of gold at well over $1000 per ounce, wouldnt that be nice.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I dont think rising gold prices has an impact like rising interest rates.

People buy gold as a hedge against inflation
ie. if interest rates go up, equities go down and gold is seen as a "safe haven"

Also, with regard to theAnalysts comments the other day, about there being "a lot less riskier investments (than gold) returning 20-50%"... Im keen to find out what these may be...


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I recall reading somewhere (Gold Eagle?) that the major players effectively "capped" any rise on the price of gold to US$6 per trading session. This was simply the observation of the analyst looking back through the charts. I didn't verify if it was true or not. But if it was then it would seem that this no longer occurs which is a significant development IMO.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> Just done a quick search for why gold skyrocketed in 79 and the best I could come up with was that physical demand skyrocketed. *shrug* tired and cant really be bothered researching it that much.
> 
> Anyone have any knowledge on what the deal with gold was?  I would have thought gold was more likely to peak in 87.
> 
> Anyway dont really know what gold might do but the chart looks an awfull lot like 77-79.



Was just a normal blow off at the end of a bull market IMO. Speculation and everyone got excited and the masses started buying. Like the dot.com shares in 2000 or real estate in 2003/4. Lots of hype and the public rushes in as the smart money gets out.

What happens after the top is a little harder to predict. Either it does a Nasdaq and collapses almost literally overnight or it enters a slow grinding bear market lasting years as gold did following 1979 and the Japanese share market following their bust.

I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.


----------



## chicken

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Was just a normal blow off at the end of a bull market IMO. Speculation and everyone got excited and the masses started buying. Like the dot.com shares in 2000 or real estate in 2003/4. Lots of hype and the public rushes in as the smart money gets out.
> 
> What happens after the top is a little harder to predict. Either it does a Nasdaq and collapses almost literally overnight or it enters a slow grinding bear market lasting years as gold did following 1979 and the Japanese share market following their bust.
> 
> I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.



Just to say where the Gold price is heading...just read an article written by Mr fABER...A SWISS OR GERMAN WHO LIVES IN Hong Kong....and he forcasts a Gold price of $3500.... in the next 4 years...so it will be it will be down but we know its still a long position...the Asian community takes a lot of note of Mr Faber as that Billionaire has over $9 billion US under management...so who can argue the point there....and I do agree with Mr Faber ...the Chinese and Indians are all buying GOLD whatever the price is....as this is the only safe hedge against inflation.....US $$$ are just paper..and they keep printing them...also the forecast for the dow in 2006 is to 13500 that is where the brokers are picking the dow will go to....so it looks for another great year to come


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Just to say where the Gold price is heading...just read an article written by Mr fABER...A SWISS OR GERMAN WHO LIVES IN Hong Kong....and he forcasts a Gold price of $3500.... in the next 4 years...so it will be it will be down but we know its still a long position...the Asian community takes a lot of note of Mr Faber as that Billionaire has over $9 billion US under management...so who can argue the point there....and I do agree with Mr Faber ...the Chinese and Indians are all buying GOLD whatever the price is....as this is the only safe hedge against inflation.....US $$$ are just paper..and they keep printing them...also the forecast for the dow in 2006 is to 13500 that is where the brokers are picking the dow will go to....so it looks for another great year to come




I am bullish but that prediction is just a bit to heavy for me!!!!


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

CHICKEN,

What is his basis for $3500 per ounce?

I have read many articles that have predicted gold to go to all time highs with many over $5000 USD/OZ and one as high as $25000 USD/OZ but they rely on the collapse of the USD.  I have in fact a short for a documentry made on gold (that one a film festival) showing a compelling case for gold (I would post it but im sure it is above the limit).

At the end of the day I guess it doesnt really matter how high it goes just weather it continues it's climb or not.

Would be interested to know what level of exposure people have to gold ATM (in terms of asset alocation).  The "experts" are saying the usual crap......5-10% should be held in gold and at this time we recomend a weighting in the higher region...blah blah.

Myself (excluding my property - which I live in and therefore dont class as an investment) am at around 10% wieghting and would happily increase that to 15-20%.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Just to say where the Gold price is heading...just read an article written by Mr fABER...A SWISS OR GERMAN WHO LIVES IN Hong Kong....and he forcasts a Gold price of $3500.... in the next 4 years...so it will be it will be down but we know its still a long position...the Asian community takes a lot of note of Mr Faber as that Billionaire has over $9 billion US under management...so who can argue the point there....and I do agree with Mr Faber ...the Chinese and Indians are all buying GOLD whatever the price is....as this is the only safe hedge against inflation.....US $$$ are just paper..and they keep printing them...also the forecast for the dow in 2006 is to 13500 that is where the brokers are picking the dow will go to....so it looks for another great year to come




3500 is a bit far fetched dont u think? if people area worried about inflation, wont they just raise interest rates to combat the problem? why inflate gold instead? doesnt really solve the problem?

Also Silver, is that going to do well in line with gold according to Faber?

Thanks

MS


----------



## chicken

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> 3500 is a bit far fetched dont u think? if people area worried about inflation, wont they just raise interest rate sto combat the problem? why inflate gold instead? doesnt really solve the problem?
> 
> also Silver, is that going to do well in line with gold acoording to Faber?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> MS



In fact if you have never heared of Mr Faber..well he has a website..Doom and Gloom he is one of Hong Kongs most respectful investment adviser....check it out yourself....after all the Asian investment community respects the man...find his website or ask a broker..I have not got it on hand as I am travelling at the moment but when I am back in Australia I have his website on my computer...I shall see if I can find it..


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

This may be the web site ur looking for:

http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/


----------



## chicken

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> This may be the web site ur looking for:
> 
> http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/



You got it right thats the one..looked under www.doomgloom.com  but not the one the one you posted is the right one thanks nizar


----------



## kerosam

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

i live in asia for a good 20 years and am quite familiar with the Chinese and Indian culture. I agree with what Chicken has said earlier. gold no matter how expensive it is, the Chinese and Indians will always buy them especially for weddings, dowring, birthdays or any family orientated festivals (not all but most festivals). It is their tradition (and some religions), a tradition that has thousand years of history. Jewellery stores in Asia are always stocked up with gold rings, braclets, earrings etc. Have a walk to a Chinatown or Little India in Singapore, you'll know what I mean. Furthermore, with the chinese and indians earning more money than ever, i reckon the demand for gold will increase.   

nevertheless am i safe to say gold producing and exploring companies will take the spot light in the coming months?


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.




Hi Smurf,
I'm happy to help if you need a hand attaching a chart, see this thread for starters: 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401&highlight=attachments. You can pm me or post in that thread if you need more help.

Also, in terms of expecting gold to skyrocket when stockmarkets fall- Larry Williams argues (via charts) that that's a myth in one of his books (one with a red cover??). The 1987 stockmarket crash didn't result in gold going to the moon. Not sure if fundamental factors (eg market rigging) resulted in it so the dynamics of the market may be different now, who knows?


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> You got it right thats the one..looked under www.doomgloom.com  but not the one the one you posted is the right one thanks nizar




http://www.gloomboomdoom.com

Hi thanks, do u have the direct link to that Gold Article where he mentions $US3500?

Thanks

MS


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Let's see if this works with the chart. Gold versus houses. Looks like the trend has changed and now favours gold.


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

A few people have mentioned a 2 to 1 ratio for DOW to gold so that projects a price of 6,000 on the DOW to $3,000 for gold
I think that ratio is exaggerated but could handle 10:1 quite easily

No one has ever gone backrupt holding gold, how many people have sat on Reichesmarks and other bogus bits of paper to end up broke?


----------



## OK2

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Good day guys,

I have read all the recent threads on Gold and would like opinions on the best entry method or which stocks to look out for. A work mate advised to look at Ballarat Gold! All feedback is welcome.

Cheers


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				OK2 said:
			
		

> Good day guys,
> 
> I have read all the recent threads on Gold and would like opinions on the best entry method or which stocks to look out for. A work mate advised to look at Ballarat Gold! All feedback is welcome.
> 
> Cheers




Hi OK2,

Welcome to ASF, glad you've found the gold thread interesting, if you'd like view s (but not advice) on individual stocks or gold stocks do a search for them using the search tool (in toolbar above), there is even a thread on Ballarat Goldfields (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1003&highlight=bgf)

Also read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines asap- thanks.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*  Gold *  ....................... SINCE  1974 ................

 Where  is  it  going ? ....................



//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ANOTHER  LOOK  AT  GOLD     ...........

I believe that there are 2 types of Technical traders ....
*
One who buys pullbacks ,,,,, * basically before a potential break out 

and 

*One who buys after a market appears to have broken out.. * 
-So called momentum traders .... looking to ride the trend ....

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm in the first group ..... I'm looking for the dips so to speak , I'm looking for the pullbacks .
    ( Don’t  buy break-outs , Don’t chase  the market ) Accept that  you  are  too  late .  

Anyway ,..........

To see a better explanation...... please go into the section in the forum called Trading Tips and strategies ..... There you will see a premise of how I am interpreting the various markets ..

or cklick here : https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1432

It's not all of it , but it is best way ,, that I have found to be able to explain what I see . 
*
It's there for all to see....*

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
-----------------------------------------------------------------
*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK…* The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement  lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective .This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


----------



## trader

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold is going up to $800.00 an oz will hit this by end of this year. It will surpass $600.00 before end of Feb. Chinese are converting dollars to gold.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

i agree with u trader...

which stocks do u think will benefit most from this?


----------



## trader

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Naturally all proper ( once that are actually mining ) gold producers will go up. I think the most money as far as a percentage increase in their share price will come from SBM and DOM and my main pick out of these two is SBM.
I think their next quarter result will be a lot higher than forecast and with gold keeping on going up so will their share price also I can see them paying dividends. BUT then again I also see BSL going back to $9.00 and FLX to $3.00 so please do your own research before investing.


----------



## trader

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold now over $560.00 , maybe will break $600.00 before end of month.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Nizer & Trader:

I would appreciate it if you would help keep this thread on topic, I have mentioned before that gold stocks can be discussed elsewhere, there are current and old threads on gold stocks. This thread is on gold, it's price trend and market dynamics in relation to those two issues. 

Also, if you're going to make predictions about gold please try to add some substance to back it up rather than just giving arbitrary figures as it doesn't add to the quality of the thread. Also for others, it's not worth ramping gold as the market is too big for just one forum to affect it.

Please excuse me if this sounds a bit harsh but we need to be more disciplined in posting, one or two slightly off topic is ok but I'm concerned this'll go off on a tangent. I'm posting this here so others will take notice too.

Please re-read the ASF posting guidelines and code of conduct asap.

Thank you for your cooperaton!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> ANOTHER  LOOK  AT  GOLD     ...........
> 
> I believe that there are 2 types of Technical traders ....
> *
> One who buys pullbacks ,,,,, * basically before a potential break out
> 
> and
> 
> *One who buys after a market appears to have broken out.. *
> -So called momentum traders .... looking to ride the trend ....




What's your current count on gold MW? I'm guessing the bottoms around 250 (on your chart) are waves 1 & 2 (double bottoms) and the current impulse wave is a wave 3, no real sign of a distinct wave 4 yet. Just getting into EW myself now!


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*An Elliott Waves  Look  At  GOLD ...................*


*Bottom Line  : * 
 Looks  like we are in a  basic rising channel  channel  formation that we  all  learned in  chartschool 101 ...

* Outlook  : *
 Gold  has  broken  out  of  a  serious  base of  consolidation back  in  June,  July 2005 .....it  is  over bought ....
( not  or me  at the moment   )

 Marketwaves  is  intersted  in  Dips and Pulbacks .........

 To  use  the  word Breakout is  the  same  as using  profanity ......

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


  Rich ,  Its  good  to  hear  that  you  are  learning  Elliott Waves formations .....

 Here's  something  from Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott


Always  remeber it  in  your  Travels ,,,,,,,,,

*All markets move  in  3's , 5's  or  7's ,  then  they  correct ...*

They  are all fractal  by nature .............. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

  Mr Elliott also  did  not  use  any  oscillators...  
(ex Macd , Stochastics, Bollinger Bands,RSI , etc ) 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

This  is  one  of  the most  profound  things he  said through his unique observations of the markets....  Take  some  Time  to  find  the  writings by  Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott.... He created  the  Elliott Wave Theory and  has  published  writings ....I  tend  to  read  only  what  he  wrote -  any  other  author  on  the subject is  second  hand information ...(in my  humble  oppinion .)


------------------------------------------------------------------------
....... These are not buying signals  ........... 

Do your own research , Here is my research ........

The charts by Marketwaves are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective , and definately not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analized .....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi does anyoen have a price chart of Silver from 1975 till now?

Thanks


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

there is a chart of silver from 1344-1998 in real dollar terms at this post.

Hope it is of some help

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&highlight=silver+chart


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> there is a chart of silver from 1344-1998 in real dollar terms at this post.
> 
> Hope it is of some help
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&highlight=silver+chart




Thx, 

actually lookign for nominal terms and includes grpah till now from 1975ish


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

hi actually i found it:

Gold 1975-2006




Silver 1984-2006




Platinum 1992-2006


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Trader
I like your forecasts best.
Ellioticians and gold are a waste of time - a chart shows the bleeding obvious but never "forecasts". 
Gold is in a secular bull trend, second phase - so increases will now be around twice the rate of previous 3 years and possibly greater.
Buying the dips to get into gold is a good idea, but nothing beats buying the best performing stock - last year SBM, Dominion and Bolnisi, in that order.
As gold previously breached $850 and the present bull run is significantly stronger, and some 25 years later on, it would be a brave person to suggest $850 would not be achieved again - and soon.
Given that target price is $300 away from the current gold price there seems little point chopping and changing gold companies in the interim.  Buy a good producer and enjoy the ride - I personally advocate OXR as the "safest" buy into gold as it is diversified into copper, the "industrial metal".
Then buy Macmin for some silver upside.


----------



## bullmarket

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi and welcome rederob

Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here 

Does arthur know you've defected to here?  He wasn't too happy after I left his site  

cheers

bullmarket


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				bullmarket said:
			
		

> Hi and welcome rederob
> 
> Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here
> 
> Does arthur know you've defected to here?  He wasn't too happy after I left his site
> 
> cheers
> 
> bullmarket




Hi what is KA?

thx

MS


----------



## bullmarket

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi michael

KA is a stock forum I used to post at until I saw posts by a nic 'John Bedson' at commsec chat on the 12/12/2005 which led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind the KA site.  I then told arthur at KA I will no longer be posting on his site.

I now only post on this forum and over at Stock Meeting Place as bullmarket. I used to post as qball over at commsec but I don't post there anymore since their chatrooms have far too much general chat for me.

cheers

bullmarket


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Bullmarket
My altruism is boundless.
Buy gold, silver and zinc and prosper.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold- triangle breakout.

I'll take any excuse to go long  

http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2006/01/im-holding-gold-overnight.html


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> *An Elliott Waves  Look  At  GOLD ...................*
> 
> 
> *Bottom Line  : *
> Looks  like we are in a  basic rising channel  channel  formation that we  all  learned in  chartschool 101 ...
> 
> * Outlook  : *
> Gold  has  broken  out  of  a  serious  base of  consolidation back  in  June,  July 2005 .....it  is  over bought ....
> ( not  or me  at the moment   )
> 
> Marketwaves  is  intersted  in  Dips and Pulbacks .........
> 
> To  use  the  word Breakout is  the  same  as using  profanity ......
> 
> /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
> 
> 
> Rich ,  Its  good  to  hear  that  you  are  learning  Elliott Waves formations .....
> 
> Here's  something  from Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott
> 
> 
> Always  remeber it  in  your  Travels ,,,,,,,,,
> 
> *All markets move  in  3's , 5's  or  7's ,  then  they  correct ...*
> 
> They  are all fractal  by nature ..............
> 
> ---------------------




Nice charts again Markets, especially the last two, thanks for the tips too, not sure what you mean by '3's, 5's or 7's '  but I'll try to get my head around it, I thought the idea was five waves up punctuated by 3 corrective waves down...must read more. 

Eitherway gold is confounding me atm, looks strong but like you I'd prefer to buy on a correction too. Do you think it'll be worth opening a thread on EW basics, maybe 'MW's EW school'? Just a thought, can go in the trading tactics forum.

btw, like your humour 'breakout=profanity'!  hahaha


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Posters, just a reminder to keep threads on topic as mentioned before. Off topic threads will be deleted or edited without notice in future. Please search the forums for existing threads first or browse through the current thread to get the gist of what the thread is about. Thanks!


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold is heading first to its previous high around th $850 mark.
Then it will breach $1000.
Then it will breach $2000.
Thereafter taxidrivers will have bought in and it will be time to sell.
$850 will be reached sometime in 2007 and $1000 in 2008.
My forecasts are guaranteed 100% accurate today, but I cannot say that gold has any respect for them thereafter.
More seriously, I note some people wanting to actively "trade" gold shares (futures is a different kettle of fish).
Trading was fine in the first leg from 2002 to late 2005.
If your risk tolerance is exceptional, it will fine over the coming years.
However, we are now entering a much more volatile market for gold and there will be sizable swings each way - more so than there were in the previous 3-4 years.
I believe the best advice is to reasearch a major low cost producer that is significantly unhedged, and hold for at least 12 months.  You will be surprised at your gains.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Gold is heading first to its previous high around th $850 mark.
> Then it will breach $1000.
> Then it will breach $2000.




Rederob, I'm afraid you're going to have to improve on statements of that nature. Please try to add some basis and substance and avoid ramping. How can anyone say gold 'will' go that high unless they have complete control over it? I think you've got a bit excited here, maybe a bit of a breather will do you good.

If you want to discuss gold stocks there are plenty of threads on it. Use the search tool.

We need to preserve the quality of posts on this forum, please read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines. This forum does not suit everyone so see if you agree with the our rules before continuing, I hope you are able to stay.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

RichKid
If you have evidence to the contrary I would welcome a debate.
The fact is that every time anyone posts a forward view it is likely to be wrong.
The more into the future that view, the more likely it will be wrong.
2 months ago gold was about $500 and today it is almost $70 higher.  Extrapolating this rate of increase gives us gold at about $900 by the end of 2006.  But that is ramping!
4 months ago gold was about $100 less than today, so that only gives us gold at around $850 by year's end.
6 months ago gold was about $130 less than today, giving us a gold price over $800 by year's end.
The questions all investors need to ask is if the past 6 months represent the prevailing trend, the past 4, the past 2, or none of the above.
The undeniable fact is that on "recent" trend there is absolutely nothing stopping gold being over $800 by the end of this year.
Accordingly, my suggestion/statement/forecast that gold would be $850 some time in 2007 is extremely conservative.
By the way, if you believe it unlikely that such a strong trend could eventuate for gold in 12 months, ask why copper rose well over 50 in price last year alone - in defiance of almost every specialist metals forecaster in the previous year.
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes.  Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes.  Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!




We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.

Looking forward to it.


----------



## bullmarket

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi RichKid

I tend to agree with you.

After I posted on the KA chat forum that I will no longer be posting there after comments about pumping and dumping by a nic 'John Bedson' on 12/12/2005 over at commsec's chatroom, I received an email from an email address containing 'rederob' in it asking me to come back.  I'm not saying rederob is 'John Bedson' as rederob gave a different name in his email to me, but they both posted on the KA site.

But I haven't and won't be going back there as the pump and dump comments led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind that chat forum.

I suppose the common sense bottom line, especially for newbies to chat forums, is to beware of claims/predictions etc that are not accompanied with verifiable info to support the predictions and to question anything that appears suspicious.

cheers

bullmarket


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Bullmarket.
John Bedson and rederob (ie, me) are 2 different people in real life - I have never met John, but I have posted and may continue to post on Bedson's site.

Pumping and dumping "gold" is an interesting concept as very few Australians trade in the gold markets - typically "futures":  Australian equities is a different kettle of fish.
My post of 12.21pm yesterday was initially tongue in cheek, and then got to the  more serious side of "trading".  Carefully read what I said "more seriously" in that post and tell me if there is anything you would dispute.

I do not know how many of your readership follow the gold market, and my experience is limited to 6 years.  Those that do follow gold will already be aware that there are "out there" forecasts from exceptionally reputable commentators - indeed, from folk that have made it their lifetime pursuit (readers can visit le metropole cafe website for such people if they are interested).

As for Bullmarket's advice to newbies, I say "piffle".
Treat every forecast with the gravest of contempt.
Don't look at what "verifiable" information the forecaster has presented as gospel - treat it all as unsubstantiated, unmitigated nonsense until you can say you have any confidence in it.
There is no substitute for doing your own research and coming to your own understanding - even if you do not get it right first time round (that’s why forums are so good)!

I have asked RichKid to present some/any reason as to why my unsubstantiated forecasts may be wrong, and I hope he can come up with something.
You see, the gold market is extremely complex, possibly even "manipulated", and despite attempts by many to talk down the gold price in recent years, it has risen.
Whenever it rises you will see mainstream commentators talk about people "flocking to gold as a safe haven", or as a "hedge against inflation", or some other pathetic reason they quickly drag up to justify the changed prices.  Read more widely and you may learn that same event was due simply to short covering on the futures market, or a range of complex technical factors that required larger trading houses - often called "funds" - to adjust their exposure to gold.  For example, the fund may have a large position in euros and be able to mitigate it by buying cheaper gold due to USD/euro exchange rate fluctuations.
I do not deny that gold has safe haven appeal, and I agree that it is an excellent hedge to inflation.  But it is simplistic to use these market forces to explain volatile price movements when they occur.

Bullmarket, it's about time you put the KA incident behind you and moved on to focus on the theme of this thread.  It is a theme I have a strong interest in.  It is also one I enjoy most where people disagree and can substantiate the basis of their contention.  While I applaud the anti-ramping sentiment of this forum, it behoves the anti-rampers to offer a counter.
Predictions of impending glom and doom are just as harmful as the euberant indulgences of erstwhile goldbugs.


----------



## bullmarket

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

no problem Rob 

My earlier post today was simply agreeing with RichKid's post and giving my reasons why....I don't see any problem with that.

Re your comment below in reply to RichKid and Wayne's reply to your post I, like them, am still waiting to see what you can come up with as you offered. So far I haven't seen anything from you and so I will continue to be suspicious and question anything I feel is not clear as I see fit with no consideration for what you think as I and everyone else is 100% entitled to do if they choose...but that is just me....if you don't like it...tough...I'm not going to change  



> Originally Posted by rederob
> If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!






			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.
> 
> Looking forward to it.




I'm not going to waste time arguing with you...I will just continue to call things as I see them and I await with interest with RichKid and Wayne to see what *"more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. " * you can come up with as you offered.

Good luck with your trading 

bullmarket


----------



## Rafa

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

i agree...

the more information you post red rob, the better...


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

When posting on this fourm my preference is to give people information or opinion, and I'll state which it is if it's not obvious, which enables those reading to draw their own conclusions in conjuction with whatever other information they may have on the subject.

That said, my own opinion on gold is that it is in a bull market. That's simply my observation based on price action and having read plenty of commentary on the subject. Up and down but the trend appears to be up.

Will the upwards price trend continue? I really don't know. There's plenty of arguments which say that it will, but nothing is certain. Many bull markets experience a major crash at some point during their run and I can't see a reason why gold couldn't do the same. But if as claimed there's limited ability for mines to ramp up production and the printing of fiat currencies contines at its recent pace then the fundamentals would seem to be favourable.

As I said, draw your own conclusions!


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

The more compelling case would be to debunk the direction of gold: Grateful for some antagonists to join the fray!

Please do not expect me to fire on all cylinders during the week - I earn a living outside of the markets and just pop in here during my spare time. 
I have attached a chart of three indexes - the Gold and Silver Index relative to the Oil Index and the Dow Jones Industrials Index - over a 20 year period.
There is a generally expectation that at various stages along their respective journeys, indexes "trend", or counter trend, and ocasionally cross each other as their relative strengths wax and wane.
This chart shows that until very recently, the XAU has been comatose.  Extreme gold bugs forecast that when the Dow finally collapses under the burden of US twin deficits, the price of gold going up will "cross" the path of the Dow going down.  Is that possible?  One thing for sure, it is not impossible - just implausible right now!


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*Gold  *...............  SO MUCH  TALK  ABOUT  GOLD

 THE  GOLD  MARKET  
IS  NO  DIFFRENT THAN  ANY  OTHER MARKET  OUT  THERE

ITS  NOT  ENOUGH To understand or follow only the  fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 Markets  are a  battle ground  beteween * Bulls  and  Bears .*
  ( We   all  know  this )

  More  importantly.....

It  is  also  a  battle  between  Technicals  and  Fundamentals     
Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's  a  Long  Term  look  at  *Gold*

Utilizing  Elliott Waves  ................. Is  it overbought ?


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> Here's  a  Long  Term  look  at  *Gold*
> 
> Utilizing  Elliott Waves  ................. Is  it overbought ?




Are you seeking confirmation from the charts (technicals) that it is overbought, and if so what other indicators do you suggest we look at?
If it is overbought, can you please explain why that is important?
Is there a particular implication if it is overbought, eg the suggestion that we should wait until it is not overbought (assuming it "is") before we buy gold?
Is it common in this forum to just toss up a chart and let everyone have a crack at deciphering it - kind of like the Rorschach inkblot test? 
As Rafa says, the more information you post, the better...
I look forward to Wayne's inevitable response, as well.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I look forward to Wayne's inevitable response, as well.




Well inevitably, my inevitable response was only made inevitable by your "inevitable" comment!!?  LOL

Otherwise, no, nothing to add here....waiting for further direction from the "ink blots"


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> *Gold  *...............  SO MUCH  TALK  ABOUT  GOLD
> 
> THE  GOLD  MARKET
> IS  NO  DIFFRENT THAN  ANY  OTHER MARKET  OUT  THERE
> 
> ITS  NOT  ENOUGH To understand or follow only the  fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
> Markets  are a  battle ground  beteween * Bulls  and  Bears .*
> ( We   all  know  this )
> 
> More  importantly.....
> 
> It  is  also  a  battle  between  Technicals  and  Fundamentals
> Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .
> 
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Here's  a  Long  Term  look  at  *Gold*
> 
> Utilizing  Elliott Waves  ................. Is  it overbought ?




what does those yellow dots mean?

thx

MS


----------



## Double Six

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

MW

do not like the look of your C wave count at all

(I suspect that you dont either)


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> what does those yellow dots mean?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Just my view MS, but after closely examing the yellow dots I confidently diagnose chicken pox  - and a strong breakout is underway!

Rather than procrastinate with chart action, let's put gold's case into context.
If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:

Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325

So let's ask some silly questions:
Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?

I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Rederob.....  
I'm in agreement with what you are saying.... the problem that I have found with alot of posts is that there is no visual representation to explain what a person is trying to communicate. Looking at threads with just words all over  the place doesnt really get noticed the way it should...........

There is nothing wrong with fundamental analysis
............................................................................................
Alot of what you are saying in the above post leads to fundamental thinking  and analysis. Again, there is agreement here about what you are saying. 

All I am trying to make people aware of is that trading is a battte ground.....*- We all want to survive .....*

It's not about being right all the time, it's about averages,* It's about managing Risk.*
The Battle is truly between Bulls and Bears and more importantly between  technicals and fundamentals. Sometimes a market will move because of  fundamentals or (news), other times a market will move by pure technicals  with no news or fundamentals to support it.

Hopefully some people out there reading this will at least try to understand  this for I have not seen the topic talked about in this forum......

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are some of my trade setups and their outcome............

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2718


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Just my view MS, but after closely examing the yellow dots I confidently diagnose chicken pox  - and a strong breakout is underway!
> 
> *Rather than procrastinate with chart action*, let's put gold's case into context.
> If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:
> 
> Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
> Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
> Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
> Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
> Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
> Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
> Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325
> 
> So let's ask some silly questions:
> Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
> If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
> Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
> Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
> How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
> If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?
> 
> I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.




Not withstanding your points regarding the fundamentals of Gold...all of which I agree with, there is a fundamental difference (pun intended) between a technical trader and a fundamental trader.

Techies may appear to dither, hop in and out, short at the wrong time. long at the wrong time, whereas the fundie has taken a position long ago and just sitting there watching and possibly adding.

Yep I'm guilty of all the above. Fortunately, we get it right sometimes. We also use the mathematics of expectancy and money management.

What this means is that the position size of a fundie and a techie will be different. Most of the folks I know accumating gold on a fundamental basis (of a similar capital) could fit their entire gold holdings in one trouser pocket (assuming they were holding the physical). That's fine, thats prudent.

The techies position size could be way way larger. For instance a 10 contract trade represents a tad over 30 kgs of physical gold.,..wheelbarrow stuff.

Not saying its better, just a different way of skinning the same cat.

Cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

MARKETWAVES
Thanks for your reply.
You seem to be a "trader" and must manage risks to preserve capital.
I am more an "investor" and take technically unwise risks, but I acquire greater capital from working in a field that's not market related.
I am very overweight in commodity equities and options, and will remain so until I see a tsunami like event unfolding - I don't bother about the tides unless it's about adding to a position.
Over the next ten years I might learn enough to contemplate "trading", but there is alot to be learnt every now and then following a stock down the gurgler.
Your point about visual representations is valid, and I suspect most people look at charts in tandem with any decision to put money on the line.  I guess I would be more inclined to "forecast" off a presented chart and wear the flak because I am trying to "predict" the market having taken a long term view.  But that does not mean I cannot liquidate every position tomorrow if the global view changes.
Your other point, "It's not about being right all the time", is interesting. In the markets, my contention is that it's always about trying to be right all the time.  I have no intenetion of trying to lose money - I just know that market and me will come to the occasional disagreement and I have the good grace to know that at every second my money is "in the market", the market is right. 


Wayne
Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!
I am more worried about the "pussy footing around" that's happening. 
Every time I look at the thread heading, I am giving my perspective and accept the consequences.
But in posting bullishly I am hoping to entice out a bear that will bring me back to earth.
There is no point holding a bullish perspective if there is bad or contrary news around.  I do not want to be that blinkered racehorse that has crossed the finishing line so wide of the mark that “I can see I have won”, but in reality was beaten by every other thoroughbred on course.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Wayne
> Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!




Well yes! Thanks to that damned Hugh Wirth, we actually only shave them and weave the fur into a backing cloth to give the impression of a true pelt. It's all smoke and mirrors these days, hey. They only let us do it in summer as well. It's really eating into our profit margins


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Well I said this on my blog yesterday:



> Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.




...and then gold falls out of the sky today. Was away from the charts when it tanked so looking on, wistfully...


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)

This could be the start, if he's right.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.
> 
> http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
> 
> This could be the start, if he's right.




Whoa!

Just listening to this program. All gold longs should listen to this. The relevant section is towards the end of the program.

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

-$20

Ahahahahahahahaha

Pity I didn't take the short


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

-$24

:grenade:


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I will be looking to buy more gold equities in late afternoon if gold holds during Asian trading, and have another crack at the markets tomorrow.
Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.


----------



## WaySolid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hmm just made a comment on your blog Wayne, I see that you have already listened to Jim.

Jim recruits coherent speakers but it should be remembered they all have an angle to press. I actually really like his show but somehow always end up feeling very depressed after listening, thats what you get hanging around with bears 

a 9.6% fall, looks like there are a few of this magnitude in the last few years. Healthy one day move.

I note the Commercials have been net short for some months in gold and silver using my look back period. And sentiment has been euphoric. Open interest almost halved today in Gold, wonder what this means?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I will be looking to buy more gold equities in late afternoon if gold holds during Asian trading, and have another crack at the markets tomorrow.
> Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.




Well if the Fed is in fact intervening here, as suggested by Bolsner, then one would expect even more excellent buys in a few days time. The bastids could even cap off the topside here for an extended period of time. It seems a bit counterintuitive in a natural market, but who says gold is a natural market?

GATA says it's been manipulated for years.

I would put nothing past "the evil empire" now.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.
> 
> http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
> 
> This could be the start, if he's right.




Was it these comments about government intervention (100tn about to be sold) the cause of todays fall? How widely is this newshour program listened to?


----------



## noirua

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3510&setSub=1


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Well if the Fed is in fact intervening here, as suggested by Bolsner, *then one would expect even more excellent buys in a few days time*.




I hope you are right.
I have a low-priced bid on LHG shares as I regard them as the best valued gold equities in our markets at the moment.


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

POG and POS look like taking another hit tonite. Good luck puntrs and holders, andother sea of red approaching


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Was it these comments about government intervention (100tn about to be sold) the cause of todays fall? How widely is this newshour program listened to?



Don't know how many listen to it but I do from time to time. Most of the people they get on there do seem to really know their stuff and I've heard them present both sides of the argument, sometimes agreeing to disagree on major points amongst the regular commentators and the presenter, so I don't think it's overly biased as such despite the mostly bearish theme of their topics. They've pointed out quite a few means to make money rather than just preserving it.

I've heard them mention receiving letters from numerous countries including Australia. Like most commentators I think they are better with the "what" than the "when" although in this case they could have got the timing pretty right it appears. Time will tell.


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

As a result, it was buying from speculators and investors that restored prices to higher levels, leading the broker to suggest it would feel far more comfortable with its outlook of further price gains this year if it could establish the price level at which solid physical demand existed.

They know ****.


----------



## Nicks

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

North


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Nicks said:
			
		

> North



I prefer east nor-east myself as those corrections can get nasty.
A 2% bounce-back today just shows that momentum remains to the upside.
It is very unusual for gold to immediately bounce back, especially after such a massive fall.
Moreover, the signs thus far indicate the decline to be a "manipulated" event.


----------



## Odysseus

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I am not inherently a gold buff, but I think that at present gold IS going through a significant re-rating, upwards, after a very long bearish period. Too much had been sold off by governments, and it had been underrated for too long. Intrinsic demand is very strong, e.g. on the part of Indian (and Chinese) women as well as investors, and as a store of "solid" wealth compared with the uncertainties of sharemarkets, bonds, real estate, and currencies. So, given time, it will probably do well. Obviously there are sure to be "corrections" after each new peak it makes, and the price will not move in a straight line. Silver and platinum are also essentially strong. A lot of people in the world are getting richer, and they will want REAL goods to invest in as well as various kinds of paper.


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

well I dont know stuff all but...


If that was a manipulation and the Govt sold 100T of gold....


....is that the best they can do?


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi  there  Double  Six  

Just wanted to post*4* more charts on the posture of Gold as an update to last week.
You said briefly in the above post that you didn't like the *C wave*  count. 

Seems like you understand the waves.....

Elliott waves is not 100%........It is subjective. 

Wave counts also vary, based on who is counting it and what time frame is  being analyzed.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's not about who has the right or wrong wave-count .........
I'ts all about understanding and applying *Risk - vs- Reward*

Well, enough said. 

Here  we  are  a week  later ..........
--------------------------------------------------------------------
*
4  chart updates 
*

Here's a copy of the previous post to see how it all ties together.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=10&pp=20

*- Scroll down to post # 191 *
---------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Marketwaves,

I have no idea about these elliot waves etc.

Can you also include in your post what the waves are signalling (bullish/bearish) in your understanding.  Just so that I can try to follow what is going on.

Thanx


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Clowboy
It's not what's on the chart, it's what's off them that counts!
It's the "secret 5" competition.
Look for number "5" on each chart.


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Meaning that 5 is the supposed price that gold is heading to?

Thanks for the reply


----------



## dutchie

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Its better to look for a new 2 or 4 as they are the starting points of a wave 3 and 5. When it gets to a 3 or 5 its too late unless you're looking for a retracement.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				dutchie said:
			
		

> Its better to look for a new 2 or 4 as they are the starting points of a wave 3 and 5. When it gets to a 3 or 5 its too late unless you're looking for a retracement.



Given that we want to know where it is ultimately heading, a 2 or 4 is relatively pointless as the correction occurs at 5 - the "top".
Even then, the wave count down - usually 3 - will be lesser in intensity, implying another run north, ie another 5 waves up.
How about putting some numbers to your numbers, dutchie?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I've read these last few posts several times now and I'm still lost  

WTF are we? 5? a? 3? c? Someone (Prechter?) said that if you put 10 EW's in a room you'd get 10 different counts, plus several concussions and numerous lacerations. (Embellishments my own  )

Anyway gold down again April contract LODed at $541.30. (currently $542.50) This is turning into a decent retracement and I'm having a bit of fun daytrading this (certainly easier than the indexes at the moment). 

My baseless stab in the dark is ~$530 - $535 before we get another leg up.

Cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Wayne
Short and sharp corrections are needed to keep up the momentum in gold.
It is important that jonny-cum-latelys are shaken out so that their next foray will be better informed rather than crowd-following.
This has been happening for several years now and I rejoice the corrections knowing full well that the fundamental drivers of gold not only remain firmly in place, but are stronger year on year.  In this regard, I expect 2006 to provide gold the greatest percentage increase since the bull roared in 2001.
At the same time, increased price volatility - as recently shown - will become a more common feature of the metal's predicament.
So too will doomsayers - anti-contrarians - start to have their voices heard more often on the premise that gold "has topped" each time it reaches a new high.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I must admit to not being a big fan of gold, but the rise in price has really very little to do with it being an inflation hedge, as gold has increased by 35% this year, while inflation is still currently circa 2%-3% as measured by the CPI.

As regards "intrinsic value" that is often bandied about, what is the calculation that you can apply to gold? It has no cash-flow, no earnings, has limited consumption and is very doubtful ever to be used as a direct currency, nor as a currency peg, for all the reasons that it was abandoned in the first place.

Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.

Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.

The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.

It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,”  Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.

Bullion’s price also surged upward because gold producers decided four years ago to stop hedging their future production, or selling next year’s output at today’s price

With prices at current levels, and cost of extraction having consumed marginal profits due to high energy bills, it is quite likely that producers will start to lock in profits by selling future supply, and reinstating hedges.
If, energy prices were to fall, and remain low, the profitability of extraction would again swell margins, but, would there still be the demand?

Both factors, sustained demand for gold, combined with sustained falls in energy prices would be required to push the POG higher. Having said that, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are still bullish, and pushing their clients into gold.
Short sellers, if forced to cover, will also push the market higher.

What is common to these scenarios is that they are speculative. There are no pressing fundamental reasons (read valuation) for purchase at these levels. The horse has left the stable. If you weren't in a couple of years back, well too bad, but now is the wrong time to think about entering.
Entering on a "technical" basis is likely suicide, as the volatility will trigger those naughty little stops far too often.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

"but the rise in price has really very little to do with it being an inflation hedge, as gold has increased by 35% this year, while inflation is still currently circa 2%-3% as measured by the CPI."

That price increase puts gold over $650!!!!

As for "reinstating hedges" - some producers that have maintained a so-called *prudent hedge positions * may lock in some high prices going forward.  They will also have seen the disadvantage they are at compared to their peers, so while the analysts say this, the companies may not take up the offer.


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

well I guess POs and POG are almost equal


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> well I guess POs and POG are almost equal




Well thats a bit too obtuse for me...I suspect it was meant to be?


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

bit off topic but Ducati, I'm guessing your using the name after the motorbike maker, but just wondering if you knew where the name came from or was derived from?

Reason I ask was Ducat was a gold coin minted in Venice around late 1200's, I'm  guessing that maybe that where Ducati name came from?
I'd like to be corrected if you know

Back to the subject, I don't believe the ETF actually holds that much in gold, hence why I wouldn't want to own the ETF because its only just holding paper.

Gold is unlikely to ever back a currency as it will take away central bankers favourite instrument - the printing press.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> I must admit to not being a big fan of gold, but the rise in price has really very little to do with it being an inflation hedge, as gold has increased by 35% this year, while inflation is still currently circa 2%-3% as measured by the CPI.
> 
> As regards "intrinsic value" that is often bandied about, what is the calculation that you can apply to gold? It has no cash-flow, no earnings, has limited consumption and is very doubtful ever to be used as a direct currency, nor as a currency peg, for all the reasons that it was abandoned in the first place.
> 
> Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.
> 
> Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.
> 
> The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.
> 
> It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,”  Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.
> 
> Bullion’s price also surged upward because gold producers decided four years ago to stop hedging their future production, or selling next year’s output at today’s price
> 
> With prices at current levels, and cost of extraction having consumed marginal profits due to high energy bills, it is quite likely that producers will start to lock in profits by selling future supply, and reinstating hedges.
> If, energy prices were to fall, and remain low, the profitability of extraction would again swell margins, but, would there still be the demand?
> 
> Both factors, sustained demand for gold, combined with sustained falls in energy prices would be required to push the POG higher. Having said that, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are still bullish, and pushing their clients into gold.
> Short sellers, if forced to cover, will also push the market higher.
> 
> What is common to these scenarios is that they are speculative. There are no pressing fundamental reasons (read valuation) for purchase at these levels. The horse has left the stable. If you weren't in a couple of years back, well too bad, but now is the wrong time to think about entering.




Well thats certainly going against the doctrine of "Gold is money". But a good and reasoned argument. I must admit to being neutral on gold as a hedge in and of itself. But one must be pragmatic, while its going up, it's a hedge. But it certainly weren't no hedge in the 90's. For this reason I agree with your point about it being a speculative move.

Re intrinsic value: I've questioned this point myself, never to have had it satifactorily answered. Intrinsic value could be deemed to be the cost of production. But this varies from mine to mine. The 450oz nugget that I tripped over while photographing needle nosed warblers (true, I really did dream that) has no intrinsic value by that measure. Besides someone has to be willing to pay that. Which gets us back to instrinsic value being what someone is prepared to exchange for it, what they are prepared to pay.

A faulty measure as this varies minute to minute, and may collapse without notice...no intrinic value there. So the value must be either numismatic (to borrow that term from the coin afficianados) or speculative.

I have the obligatory few krugerands etc but no way would I convert my entire cash to gold..no way. Others seem to be doing this at todays price...their ENTIRE savings  

If things get that bad, my organic veggie patch and winchester 30/30 is a better hedge in my view. 



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Entering on a "technical" basis is likely suicide, as the volatility will trigger those naughty little stops far too often.
> 
> jog on
> d998




This is where I diverge strongly with your views (as you have come to expect  ) Technicals are the only sensible way to trade this beast, stop or no stop...especially leveraged to the eyeballs. Traded on fundamentals, and considering the volatility, I would trade an underlying quantity of no more than 50 - 100ozs. Whereas technically I am prepared to trade an underlying quantity of 500-2000 ozs...short, long whatever. I know which strategy, for me, would come out in front over the long haul, and by a long, long way.

Cheers


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> As for "reinstating hedges" - some producers that have maintained a so-called prudent hedge positions may lock in some high prices going forward. They will also have seen the disadvantage they are at compared to their peers, so while the analysts say this, the companies may not take up the offer.




Of course, that may well be the case. However, if I was a CEO of a gold producer, I would be in contact with other CEO's within the industry, particularly the larger producers, to find out their thoughts. If one does, I suspect all will.

However unless you definitively know the answer, you are speculating.
The problem, being that if they do start "hedging forward production" again, that will impose very heavy selling pressure, that will not effect a "short-covering" scenario with a speculative price rise.

*bvbfan* 

No, I do not know the origin of the "ducati" brand.
Your hypothesis is an interesting one however.

The ETF by all accounts does hold that amount of physical gold. 
Although, I must admit I haven't seen it in the vault myself. The regulation of ETF's by the SEC is stringent and I would not concern myself on this point.

Gold as a currency, is a non-starter.
Gold restricts economic growth, and as a tool for commerce, is just not practical. It will never again be a currency, not even in a armageddon scenario.

*wayne* 



> Re intrinsic value: I've questioned this point myself, never to have had it satifactorily answered. Intrinsic value could be deemed to be the cost of production. But this varies from mine to mine. The 450oz nugget that I tripped over while photographing needle nosed warblers (true, I really did dream that) has no intrinsic value by that measure. Besides someone has to be willing to pay that. Which gets us back to instrinsic value being what someone is prepared to exchange for it, what they are prepared to pay.




Intrinsic value, is the earning power of the asset.
Take a simple example; a house.
The intrinsic value is the "rental cash-flow" discounted, into *years into the future. Therefore assume a 4 bedroom house, @ $110/week and 8% interest
Intrinsic value = $286,000.00 or $71,500.00 per bedroom

On that basis, what is the intrinsic value of gold?
Gold pays no interest,
Gold has no earning power,
Its capital value, like all assets fluctuates, but lacking any earning power, there is nothing to stop it falling to zero. 

The entire value of gold, like cash, resides in the confidence of people believing in the availability of exchange for goods and services.
A house, may fetch 10 eggs, 1 loaf of bread, and a good massage per/month, per/room, and that then becomes its intrinsic value.



> This is where I diverge strongly with your views (as you have come to expect  ) Technicals are the only sensible way to trade this beast, stop or no stop...especially leveraged to the eyeballs. Traded on fundamentals, and considering the volatility, I would trade an underlying quantity of no more than 50 - 100ozs. Whereas technically I am prepared to trade an underlying quantity of 500-2000 ozs...short, long whatever. I know which strategy, for me, would come out in front over the long haul, and by a long, long way.




Gold, pure speculation.
As a speculative play, use a speculative tool, viz. Technical analysis to play in the market, so actually we are in agreement. Its just as a fundie, I wouldn't touch gold at all, it holds no interest for me as an investment.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

"Intrinsic value, is the earning power of the asset."
A novel idea, totally baseless, and represented with an example that has little to do with instrinsic value.
The intrinsic value of a house is principally related to its capacity to provide shelter.  You can test this notion by putting your house into Central Australia or the Amazon Delta.

Nevertheless an enjoyable post for its many misconceptions.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> A novel idea, totally baseless, and represented with an example that has little to do with instrinsic value. The intrinsic value of a house is principally related to its capacity to provide shelter. You can test this notion by putting your house into Central Australia or the Amazon Delta.




Interesting reply.
I would disagree. Housing and its investment value is of great topical interest I suspect to many "Property Investors", who regard the purchase price and their return on capital as very important.
Intrinsic value of a "Business" is very important to myself as I invest, as opposed to "trade" the financial markets.
The calculation of intrinsic value has many varying calculations dependant upon financial inputs, and can be open to much debate. I chose the house as an example, for the reason that rent is generally agreed upon as a relevant and important cash-flow.

But lets pursue  your example a little further as obviously you wish to argue extreme scenarios. In the middle of the desert, shelter will have great value, how that is measured would be by what could be exchanged or negotiated for it.

If they offered me a lump of gold, what value is that to me in the middle of the desert? Water, food, clothing, shelter, are the necessities of life, and carry the value, not a lump of shiny metal.

Therefore, where resides the intrinsic value of gold?
It resides, as previously stated in the *expectations, beliefs, and psychology* of gold itself as a medium of exchange.

As an interesting note, in post-war Japan, the medium of exchange was not gold, silver, or any form of metal, but cigarettes and soap. 
They are easily divisible, easily transported, have practical useage, "intrinsic value" smoke the fag, wash with the soap etc and carried the same expectation of negotiating value......barter.

To exchange gold for goods and services, the volume of gold would need to increase dramatically, there are 6 billion of us now, and the value would need to drop tremendously, as for 6 eggs and a loaf of bread, what will I receive as "change" for my 1 ounce krugerand @ $500.00

jog on
d998


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

The intristic value of gold is in greed,social statusthroughout history gold has shown its value.egpytian/roman times etc etc etc  gold was a show of wealth and power throughout history it has shown its strength.the paper US dollar its not goingto buy you food in the desert either in times of hunger.look whats happening around the world.Gold has a long way to run in such uncertain times.When it stops.......


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Both sides of this argument are good ones.

Gold does not really have an intrinsic value, nor does money.

Society's have always looked to some form of money to maintain order in the exchange of goods and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

The fact that there is not an infinite supply of gold as opposed to the infinite supply of currency is what makes gold a hedge etc etc.

Well in my opinion anyway.

Cheers


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*tasmanian* 



> The intristic value of gold is in greed,social statusthroughout history gold has shown its value.egpytian/roman times etc etc etc gold was a show of wealth and power throughout history it has shown its strength.the paper US dollar its not goingto buy you food in the desert either in times of hunger.look whats happening around the world.Gold has a long way to run in such uncertain times.When it stops




I guess you are pro-gold then.
In historical times, gold had additional utility value, in that it was a repository of wealth, banks, didn't exist, just Royal treasuries. It did not decay, could not be consumed, didn't rust etc. Therefore it could be passed through the generations.

With the signing of the Magna Carta, and the advent of laws guarding property, owned, self and intellectual, the writing was on the wall.
Hundreds of years later, gold, as a repository of wealth, became outmoded and redundant as the very qualities that recommended it historically were superceded.

*clowboy* 



> Gold does not really have an intrinsic value, nor does money.




Correct, both require the belief and faith, that, it will be accepted as a universal medium of exchange for alternate goods and services.



> The fact that there is not an infinite supply of gold as opposed to the infinite supply of currency is what makes gold a hedge etc etc.




As a hedge against what exactly?
Inflation
Deflation
War
Other......................


jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You must be more consistent with your points.
You cannot say on the one hand that your business has intrinsic value, and then agree that gold has not.
It is true that we have adapted English so as to allow "intrinsic value" to be applied to specific market related concepts -particularly to put a money value on things.
In its purest sense, however, intrinsic value is the value something has because it is what it is.
Gold and property - objects - often derive value "extrinsically", ie from the perspective, or sake,  of something else.
In any event, this does not help this thread unless you understand what gold means and/or what gold does.

To date your posts are erratic on these points. If you consider the intrinsic value of gold to lie "in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange", why do so many Central Banks hold gold in vaults but never exchange it?


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> You must be more consistent with your points. You cannot say on the one hand that your business has intrinsic value, and then agree that gold has not.




I do not note any inconsistency at all.
A business has "intrinsic value" as it has calcuable cash-flows that provide the concept of an intrinsic value.

Gold, as I have consistently argued, has no such intrinsic value, as it has no cash-flows associated with it, therefore, no intrinsic value.



> It is true that we have adapted English so as to allow "intrinsic value" to be applied to specific market related concepts -particularly to put a money value on things.




Correct, the language of finance. Like medical terminology and legal terminology, financial terminology has specific meaning, often at varience with the English language of day to day use.



> In its purest sense, however, intrinsic value is the value something has because it is what it is.




Incorrect from a financial viewpoint.
In finance, the value *"something has because it is what it is"* is not referred to by the term "intrinsic value, but *by the term ....utility value* a very different useage of the English language



> Gold and property - objects - often derive value "extrinsically", ie from the perspective, or sake, of something else.




Agreed, and that is where the argument for gold has always originated from.
That is to say from an emotional, psychological, and a belief and faith that gold will be valued as a medium of exchange at a mutually agreed value.



> In any event, this does not help this thread unless you understand what gold means and/or what gold does.




Gold, is a speculative commodity, with limited use within industry, that in no way justifies the current price. The myth that gold is an inflation hedge etc is dying a slow death.



> To date your posts are erratic on these points. If you consider the intrinsic value of gold to lie "in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange", why do so many Central Banks hold gold in vaults but never exchange it?




Yes I do. Currently I have seen nothing to alter this viewpoint.
As regards Central Banks holding gold reserves, they do periodically sell off quantities, however, if they wanted to sell all of it, to whom would they sell?

The gold industry could in all possibility collapse.
How many gold bangles are really required?

jog on
d998


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> To date your posts are erratic on these points.




Talking of erratic, in this thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2612&highlight=fiat

you said:



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Pray tell how wonderful that interest rate is for you during a deflationary period.
> 
> But the proposition is somewhat unclever in a secular bull market for gold which is compounding gold's value well over 10% pa.
> 
> On the subject of this thread, however, it does seem that as gold does not attract interest it would not be a good candidate as a fiat currency after all.




So which is gold a hedge for? Inflationary periods or deflationary periods?

The other things I thought I'd mention - gold actually costs you to hold it - buildings, security... has additional transaction costs - testing for purity and is bloody heavy.

As opposed to US dollars which yield an interest rate, can be transferred and stored electronically and are all the same.

Funnily, to get arround the storage and transfer problems in the gold market, we print little pieces of paper and trade those.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You seem to have no understanding of intrinsic value from a market perspective or a theoretical perspective.
In the fullness of time you will choose to ignore me.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> You seem to have no understanding of intrinsic value from a market perspective or a theoretical perspective.




Au contraire, I have illustrated with an example, specifically the concept and calculation of intrinsic value. The discounted cash-flow, will provide you with an intrinsic value, valuation. None of which can be applied to gold. Golds capital value is speculative, and subject to endless revision based on emotional, psychological, and technical reasons.

There are however a number of models utilized to calculate cash-flows, and they all provide different valuations, hence the arguments amongst analysts.



> In the fullness of time you will choose to ignore me.




Of course not, why should I do that?
I enjoy the hurly-burly of a good discussion.

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Welcome Duc  ( I feel some lengthy threads coming on LOL)




LOLOL


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Intrinsic value from any perspective apart from philosophical has 3 bases; temporal, spatial, and cultural.
Typically calculating intrinsic value from a monetary perspective involves calculating "intangibles"; such things that may include reputation, intellect, patents, trademarks, research/development, and brand. The intrinsic value in these cases represents things that cannot be taken away, or things that others perceive as having an association with the object in question.
Intrinsic value from a "market" perspective is typically the value of something that cannot be taken away from it because it is what it is. For example, an in the money derivative will have a dollar value because, as a derivative, its value is determined from its very nature (albeit extremely "temporal").
The values in your examples are simply "book value" calculations and, frankly, have nothing to do with intrinsic value per se or market-wise.
Unfortunately, as you have grasped the bull from the wrong end here there is not much point going much further.  You seem to have put up arguments that convince yourself that you are right, yet they defy logic and common understandings.
By the way, it is not good form when debating a point to draw a conclusion from something that was not stated nor implied.  For example, in an earlier post I talked about the “purest sense” of intrinsic value, yet you turned my statement into a “financial viewpoint”, and declared what I said was “incorrect: Very naughty tactic!
In closing here I will return to an underlying theme of this thread: The most important aspect of gold from a financial perspective is one you almost discounted, and it relates to why Central Banks hold gold.  But more importantly, it relates to how much gold they actually hold, and for how long they can keep selling it.

ps. I will be very pleased if you sell me your Krugerrand (ounce of gold) for $500, or a little more to account for its intrinsic value!


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

markrmau
You need to point out what was "erratic" in my earlier post.  Take care not to construe things out of context in so doing..
In relation to your question, "So which is gold a hedge for? Inflationary periods or deflationary periods?", the answer is "both" in the right circumstances.
Now ain't that a b!t@h of an answer!


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> Typically calculating intrinsic value from a monetary perspective involves calculating "intangibles"; such things that may include reputation, intellect, patents, trademarks, research/development, and brand. The intrinsic value in these cases represents things that cannot be taken away, or things that others perceive as having an association with the object in question.




Indeed it does, and within the intrinsic value calculation these "intangibles" are all contained within the calculation.



> Intrinsic value from a "market" perspective is typically the value of something that cannot be taken away from it because it is what it is.




I disagree with your assertion that the "intangibles value" cannot be taken away or lost. A moments thought and a more penetrating analysis would reveal the superficiality of your premise.

Lets take a specific example to illustrate.
Coca-Cola, has an "intangible value" associated with the Brand.
This was almost lost, and severely damaged, when the "new recipe" was unveiled to the consumer. "New Coke" was replaced once the error in managements thinking was illustrated.



> For example, an in the money derivative will have a dollar value because, as a derivative, its value is determined from its very nature (albeit extremely "temporal").




You are using "intrinsic value" now in regard to "Options pricing" and you are correct in stating "an ITM Option" posseses "intrinsic value".
However, the intrinsic value is not derived from its *nature, it is derived from being ITM* which of course, represents a cash-flow.

By way of example, you have two KO derivatives (Call Options) one is ITM @ $41.00, the other is ITM @ $50.00

KO as I type is trading @ $41.36
Therefore Option #1 has an "Intrinsic value" of $0.36 + Time Value
Option #2 has "Intrinsic value" of $0.00 + Time Value

The Intrinsic value of the derivative, is derived from the value of the Common of KO, which is calculated by investors on a daily basis, this however may, or may not be the "intrinsic value" of KO



> The values in your examples are simply "book value" calculations and, frankly, have nothing to do with intrinsic value per se or market-wise.




Incorrect.
Book value represents .....Net Tangible Assets.
This is not "intrinsic value".



> Unfortunately, as you have grasped the bull from the wrong end here there is not much point going much further. You seem to have put up arguments that convince yourself that you are right, yet they defy logic and common understandings.




That is because they are correct.
Until you can provide evidence to the contrary, I shall continue to accept them as correct. If however you can illustrate the fault in my reasoning, I shall be more than happy to benefit, and acknowledge my error.



> By the way, it is not good form when debating a point to draw a conclusion from something that was not stated nor implied. For example, in an earlier post I talked about the “purest sense” of intrinsic value, yet you turned my statement into a “financial viewpoint”, and declared what I said was “incorrect: Very naughty tactic!




That may indeed be true.
However, as this is a "financial" website, discussing the financial markets, and gold specifically, and you had in previous posts referred to the "financial intrinsic value" I never gave it a second thought. In future I shall try to do so.



> In closing here I will return to an underlying theme of this thread: The most important aspect of gold from a financial perspective is one you almost discounted, and it relates to why Central Banks hold gold. But more importantly, it relates to how much gold they actually hold, and for how long they can keep selling it.




And your point is?

Banks are legally limited as to the volume that they can sell into the market.
There are economic and political reasons for this.
With the abandonment of the gold standard, it is just dead weight.



> ps. I will be very pleased if you sell me your Krugerrand (ounce of gold) for $500, or a little more to account for its intrinsic value!




If I had one, I would have sold it to you.
I hold no gold, physical, or securitized.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

A fair effort, but nevertheless the teacher has failed you.


----------



## Hershy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold is very close to falling below the shorter term uptrend. All this talk of > $800 gold is reminiscent of 70s, the last time the experts were predicting these levels. Never happened. I come to this conclusion when I see the down moves being so much larger than the up moves. And I hold lots of TRY.


----------



## Nicks

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Hershy said:
			
		

> Gols is very close to falling below the shorter term uptrend. All this talk of > $800 gold is reminiscent of 70s, the last time the experts were predicting these levels. Never happened. I come to this conclusion when I see the down moves being so much larger than the up moves. And I hold lots of TRY.




Interesting graph, any fundamental analysis in this call, or just lines alone? oh and as far as the 70's are concerned - if you are saying the trend is the same as back then, when gold hit its highest ever in 1980, then wow even more to substantiate a move upward in Gold price.

Everyone seems to be in agreeance that Gold prices are just going to keep going up. 

Fin Review had nothing but 'Gold' to say about Gold and investing in gold yesterday.

Although there is minor corrections in the price of the precious metals, the general trend seems that it will easily reach expectations (anaylysts expecting US$850 an ounce, some US$1000).

The most interesting concept in AFR I thought though was that they expect Gold to reach levels it did in 1980 (due to many reasons, including geopolitical instability of which we have bucket loads of at the moment). They mention how Gold peaked at us$850 in 1980 and it will hit that again very soon, but interestingly adjusted for CPI etc its the equivalent of US$2500 an ounce now! 

What does this mean? well common sense tells me that it is even more of a driver for the price of gold to go extraordinarily high and that it is still grossly undervalued as the demand and 'other reasons' as touched on above are even higher than ever, and its a finite resource, yet the CPI adjusted price for Gold is still very low. Technically adjusted, Gold is far from its US$2500 an ounce peak, and it seems the current climate and mood will see this want to edge closer and closer to this mark. Why shouldn't it.


My best performer, AVO, is sitting on heaps of Gold and the share price is starting to move. Gold rush, I think its about to happen and could hit US$1000 an ounce very quickly with some sharp rises (mixed with more minor pullbacks) occuring in the near future.


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I guess you are pro-gold then.
In historical times, gold had additional utility value, in that it was a repository of wealth, banks, didn't exist, just Royal treasuries. It did not decay, could not be consumed, didn't rust etc. Therefore it could be passed through the generations.

With the signing of the Magna Carta, and the advent of laws guarding property, owned, self and intellectual, the writing was on the wall.
Hundreds of years later, gold, as a repository of wealth, became outmoded and redundant as the very qualities that recommended it historically were superceded.

Gday 
I am pro gold.

why is gold now US$540 an ounce,if its only a shiny metal?
Gold is the most superior conductor known to man.Future technology will use gold like never before.50+million computers per year and steadily rising,dvd players tv,s etc etc 
gold is critical to high tech,aerospace and other industries that demand its unmatched physical properties.
jewellery.have you ever travelled through Asia?If you have i wont need to explain the demand of gold jewellery throughout Asia let alone the rest of the world.Gold plays a very big part in hindu weddings in India.Also chinese new years.Last count their was quite a few hindus in india and  a few chinese floating around.
Through history gold has always been held in the highest regard of all metals.Why would it suddenly change.Gold production has been falling gold demand rising.therefore gold price rises.uncertain times in the world helps gold even more.
jewellery,technology,religious beliefs list goes on and on.gold is held by countries as  a storage of wealth.always has as far as i know.its been in a 20odd yr bear market.

personally ive got know idea what the magna carta has got to do with the current pog.Im  not really up too date as you with all the theory side of it but its in a bull market still in its long term upward trading channel.Ive made plenty out of gold in the last 18mths and hoping to make even more in the next couple of years/if its good dont fight it go with it.
.
all the best just my 2 cents worth


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> A fair effort, but nevertheless the teacher has failed you.




Thats what I like to see; capitulation, reduced to nothing but an opinion.

*Nicks* 



> Everyone seems to be in agreeance that Gold prices are just going to keep going up.




Always a bit of a concern in the market.
While Gold may indeed go higher, the safe "technical trades" have long since past, and volatility is on the increase. Generally a trend in increasing volatility suggests a top, or an approaching one.



> The most interesting concept in AFR I thought though was that they expect Gold to reach levels it did in 1980 (due to many reasons, including geopolitical instability of which we have bucket loads of at the moment). They mention how Gold peaked at us$850 in 1980 and it will hit that again very soon, but interestingly adjusted for CPI etc its the equivalent of US$2500 an ounce now!




And why in geopolitical instability would gold be a safe haven?
That is the argument being put forward after all.
I would agree that historical highs can be almost a self-fulfilling prophecy, so I wouldn't rule it out, but with gold you are really trading the "greater fool theory".



> and its a finite resource, yet the CPI adjusted price for Gold is still very low. Technically adjusted, Gold is far from its US$2500 an ounce peak, and it seems the current climate and mood will see this want to edge closer and closer to this mark. Why shouldn't it.




While technically it is a finite resouce, for all practical purposes this just is not the case. There are gold surpluses that could meet demand many times over. Speculative pressures drive the price, not demand.

Gold has no correlation to inflation, and is not an inflation hedge, despite popular perception to the contrary.



> My best performer, AVO, is sitting on heaps of Gold and the share price is starting to move. Gold rush, I think its about to happen and could hit US$1000 an ounce very quickly with some sharp rises (mixed with more minor pullbacks) occuring in the near future.




Which really rather confirms that the "supply" of gold and the "demand" for gold are not really fundamental issues. The ride will be over when "producers" start hedging forward production.

This information can be gleaned for the industry as a whole, and when evidence supports the hedging of forward production starts in earnest, time to close long positions.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*tasmanian* 



> why is gold now US$540 an ounce,if its only a shiny metal?




Due to speculative pressure on the price.



> Gold is the most superior conductor known to man.Future technology will use gold like never before.50+million computers per year and steadily rising,dvd players tv,s etc etc




All true.
However, the demand for these items, while undeniably growing, and hopefully will continue to grow into the future, cannot provide the evidence to support gross world demand, and the correlation to price.



> Through history gold has always been held in the highest regard of all metals.Why would it suddenly change.Gold production has been falling gold demand rising.therefore gold price rises.uncertain times in the world helps gold even more.




And explains why there is no evidence to support that price is driven by demand. If it was, there would not have been a 20 year bear market, as when manufacturing demand and consumer demand increased YOY, so price would have matched the growth in demand.

Gold as an inflation hedge, as a form of currency are long dead.
Unfortunately, it is the "average" man in the street that still believes in gold as a repository of wealth, c'est la vie.



> but its in a bull market still in its long term upward trading channel.Ive made plenty out of gold in the last 18mths and hoping to make even more in the next couple of years/if its good dont fight it go with it.




And from a technical trading perspective, I have no argument. You are speculating, and there is nothing wrong or immoral in that at all.
That you show a profit, is cream on the cake.

I only became interested in this thread for the reason that arguments were being promulgated that somehow the *intrinsic value of gold supported the current price, and that based on these fundamental calculations, the price of gold was still undervalued* 

That, is patent nonsense.
Whether price rises or falls is a speculative outcome.
Just know the game you are playing in reality, and don't be cajoled into thinking there are fundamental valuations at work.

jog on
d998


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hersy

look at the graph u posted, there was a correction in december that sent gold from 540 to about 490, maybe this one will be the same...

i havent to be honest read by anybody qualified that is bearish on gold. they all reckon correction now and by year end 600+, some even higher. these guys dont have to be right, gold may not be worth more in the future, but as long as people believe them, 2days prices will seem like a bargain...

plus i hear russian and sth african central banks are buying for their reserves. Many asian central banks carry 2 much US dollar, any sign of weakness may see them dump it for gold...


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

What is happening to me!!!! I find myself agreeing almost 100% with Duc!!!  

Thankfully, there was one point with which I can argue.....



> the safe "technical trades" have long since past,




Well. I think the no brainer trades have past, but still plenty of safe trades.

All trades are safe in the context of positive expectancy, money management etc.

Indeed, all trades are unsafe without the above, especially leveraged ones.

Cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
If you do not understand what "intrinsic value" is, there is not much point continuing.
There are some accepted definitions of "intrinsic value" relating to the markets, yet you still miss the essential point of what "intrinsic" is.
The intrinsic value of a derivative is only ever achieved when it in the money.  It is that portion which is immediately available to be taken off the table as it were - the in the money quantum - and despite what you might do or think, while it is "in the money" it is equal to the defined intrinsic value.
In relation to your Coca Cola example, you have confused "intangible" with "intrinsic" - they are quite different concepts.
Irrespective of what you believe, you cannot destroy the intrinsic value of Coca Cola, or Nike, or BHP, or Mercedes, or Honda, but their "values" (in a dollar sense) will change considerably over time.  The intangibles are tools we can use to measure or "approximate" an intrinsic value for these companies.
What I find very interesting in you position to date is your apparent view that you can relatively easily calculate "intrinsic value".
In ten years of wide-ranging reading on these matters I pronounce your thesis unique.
I suggest you quickly write a book and make a lot of money.
But do not take offence when your publisher quietly suggests it be sold in the "fiction" section.


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

gday ducati,

thanks for your reply.you seem like a pretty smart guy.hell sometimes i have to read your posts a couple of times to get the jist but you seem to know what your talking about.
im basically a trader that uses pretty simple methods.trend is your friend.stop/losses etc.i believe gold is still going to go along way yet.but ill be honest im no expert(who really is)with really knowing.i can only go on what i read and my gut feeling on gold.i see many uses for it without the hedging,wealth storage etc etc that is just the icing on the cake if people feel that way.
you have some valid points but i leave that up too you guys to discuss why golds in an uptrend ill be following it.
good luck and cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati only became interested in this thread for the reason that arguments were being promulgated that somehow the intrinsic value of gold supported the current price, and that based on these fundamental calculations, the price of gold was still undervalued 

He said it is patent nonsense and reckons whether the price of gold rises or falls is a speculative outcome.

While that may be true for ducati it does not explain why my rather meagre portfolio is over $100k up in 6 months, and I have made the grand total of a dozen trades in that period (mostly buys) all based on what I regard as "fundamental trading".

In fact, the issue of intrinsic value is only a by-line to this thread as from what I have read the consensus is that non-technical factors are supporting gold going forward (apart from MARKETWAVES Elliot Wave interpretations indicating upside is most probable).

If ducati wants to make an "on topic" contribution to the thread he will need to indicate where his view of the "speculative" outcome finally lies, or at least he needs to give a clear view of gold's price going forward in the medium to longer term.

In an earlier post I mentioned the role of Central Banks being a key to ultimate gold prices.  There are several reasons for this.
First, there is great conjecture about how much gold their vaults contain, versus their stated quantities.
Secondly, European Central Banks have been offloading up to 400 tonnes of gold each year to 2004 and 500 tonnes from 2005 but the gold price keeps rising. It implies that demand is robust, especially as we know of several non-European nations that are keen to add gold to their State reserves. 
Thirdly, these banks would run out of gold to sell within 30 years, and thereafter how is the unmet demand to be satisfied?
Finally, if gold has little apparent value to most European banks, how do we explain the interest in gold from nations that have an inherently "eastern" flavour?


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Investment strategy please!! Buy physical now and hoard or buy shares?


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

good point redrob,

everything seems to be pointing for gold to go up imo.its been good to me and we are having a correction that is due.history speaks for itself gold has and will be (for well i believe our lifetimes)a very valuable asset.if peope/banks arent holding gold to show their wealth what are they going to hold(Paper money).im not sure if asian and middle eastern countries etc are so convinced about the US dollar anymore.
i enjoy listening to you guys both put up interesting arguements but i have to admit gold long term looks very good to me.days of the US dollar being so powerful are coming to an end gold seems the way for me.

cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> Investment strategy please!! Buy physical now and hoard or buy shares?



crackaton
Go to James Turk's goldmoney website and buy his e-gold for something different.
Buy LHG tomorrow.
As the Tassie devil notes, gold long has legs.
But I am just speculating.

disclosure: I bought LHG shares today
I don't have any electronic gold accounts open


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

you bought lhg today so did I good luck.20 0dd % drop in 2weeks gold down  over 5% in a correction  mmmm.seems like a good deal


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> There are some accepted definitions of "intrinsic value" relating to the markets, yet you still miss the essential point of what "intrinsic" is.
> The intrinsic value of a derivative is only ever achieved when it in the money. It is that portion which is immediately available to be taken off the table as it were - the in the money quantum - and despite what you might do or think, while it is "in the money" it is equal to the defined intrinsic value.




And if you actually had read my previous post, you would see that is exactly what was stated;



> You are using "intrinsic value" now in regard to "Options pricing" and you are correct in stating "an ITM Option" posseses "intrinsic value".
> However, the intrinsic value is not derived from its nature, it is derived from being ITM which of course, represents a cash-flow.
> 
> By way of example, you have two KO derivatives (Call Options) one is ITM @ $41.00, the other is ITM @ $50.00
> 
> KO as I type is trading @ $41.36
> Therefore Option #1 has an "Intrinsic value" of $0.36 + Time Value
> Option #2 has "Intrinsic value" of $0.00 + Time Value
> 
> The Intrinsic value of the derivative, is derived from the value of the Common of KO, which is calculated by investors on a daily basis, this however may, or may not be the "intrinsic value" of KO




What may have confused you is the reference to the intrinsic value of the underlying being a separate calculation.



> In relation to your Coca Cola example, you have confused "intangible" with "intrinsic" - they are quite different concepts.
> Irrespective of what you believe, you cannot destroy the intrinsic value of Coca Cola, or Nike, or BHP, or Mercedes, or Honda, but their "values" (in a dollar sense) will change considerably over time. The intangibles are tools we can use to measure or "approximate" an intrinsic value for these companies




Nonsense.
"Intangible" under GAAP accounting can be assigned a dollar value, only if the asset has been the subject of a financial transaction. I specifically chose KO, as it has never been the object of a merger, thus the *intangibles of KO have never been subject to a GAAP valuation* 
Therefore, the intangibles must be calculated via alternate methods. They will provide you with a dollar figure of your calculated intangible value.
*The INTRINSIC value of KO, will INCLUDE in the valuation the contribution of the intangibles* within the calculation to the overall intrinsic valuation. 
Simply calculate a ratio to ascertain the contribution of the intangibles to the intrinsic value.

Therefore, if, the *intangible value of an asset, in this case the example was the "Brand" value* was reduced, impaired, lost, or destroyed, this will *alter the INTRINSIC value* whether it has a permanant, or temporary impact only time will tell.



> What I find very interesting in you position to date is your apparent view that you can relatively easily calculate "intrinsic value".
> In ten years of wide-ranging reading on these matters I pronounce your thesis unique.
> I suggest you quickly write a book and make a lot of money.
> But do not take offence when your publisher quietly suggests it be sold in the "fiction" section.




Yes, I believe that I can.
You obviously have not read as widely as myself it would seem.
I have no interest in writing a book, but if I had, where it would be placed for sale, as long as it sold, would not be a major concern.



> While that may be true for ducati it does not explain why my rather meagre portfolio is over $100k up in 6 months, and I have made the grand total of a dozen trades in that period (mostly buys) all based on what I regard as "fundamental trading".




I always enjoy seeing unsubstantiated claims of huge profits when seeking to justify an intellectual position.
The danger of course is that you have managed to fool yourself that you are somehow "investing" due to useage of "fundamental" factors, rather than being honest with yourself, and admit that you are speculating.
The result will be even larger profits, or, a bust out.
If your trading/investing plan, based on your fundamental analysis sees gold at lets say $1000.00, and the market collapses, what will you do?

You must either trash your fundamental analysis, and get out, or, hang on, while the fundamentals establish themselves over a longer time period.

If you were speculating, you would have no fixed view, you would hopefully have a stoploss, and try to stay with the trend as long as possible, thus managing your risk.



> In fact, the issue of intrinsic value is only a by-line to this thread as from what I have read the consensus is that non-technical factors are supporting gold going forward (apart from MARKETWAVES Elliot Wave interpretations indicating upside is most probable).




And I have made no comment upon this analysis.
My only disagreement is in regard to gold having an intrinsic value.
It most certainly has a utility value, but this is nowhere near $500+



> If ducati wants to make an "on topic" contribution to the thread he will need to indicate where his view of the "speculative" outcome finally lies, or at least he needs to give a clear view of gold's price going forward in the medium to longer term.




I need do no such thing.
I shall comment on what I choose to comment on, which is, the complete nonsense of gold possessing an intrinsic value.

I think we have beaten the Bank issue to death.
They hold gold, for political and economic reasons, none of which are related to intrinsic value.

*tasmanian* 



> im basically a trader that uses pretty simple methods.trend is your friend.stop/losses etc.i believe gold is still going to go along way yet.but ill be honest im no expert(who really is)with really knowing.i can only go on what i read and my gut feeling on gold.




Which is fine.
You have a trading plan, and this commodity is moving, traders need to be where the action is. You do not need to hold an opinion on where it may or may not go, to you that is irrelevant.



> i enjoy listening to you guys both put up interesting arguements but i have to admit gold long term looks very good to me.days of the US dollar being so powerful are coming to an end gold seems the way for me.




And this is exactly the driver behind the speculation in gold. This outdated, and outmoded argument has been at the root of the "hedge" argument from the days when gold was a valid hedge, as currencies were issued as a direct ratio of the physical holding of gold. Those days are long gone, but the emotional residue remains, psychologically people, hedge fund managers, retail investors, traders, take your pick, lean in times of trouble and uncertainity to the psychological safety of gold.

It is this psychological safety blanket that is open to abrupt revision as the valuation is not based on utility value, or intrinsic value, but psychological, emotional value.

Therefore, if, the world outlook, the US outlook becomes increasingly uncertain, the trend in higher prices will in all likelihood continue higher.
However, should the world sort itself out, the US control their property bubble, their current account deficits, their social security, their pensions, etc etc, then gold will sell off.

It is no coincidence that the 20 year Bear market in gold, matched the 20 year Bull market in US Equities.
As the US is currently in a Secular Bear market, I suspect gold is going higher, but not for intrinsic value reasons..........psychological.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				tasmanian said:
			
		

> you bought lhg today so did I good luck.20 0dd % drop in 2weeks gold down  over 5% in a correction  mmmm.seems like a good deal



Gold and silver up nicely overnight so looks like yesterday was a good time to buy........... so far.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				tasmanian said:
			
		

> gday ducati,
> 
> im basically a trader that uses pretty simple methods.trend is your friend.stop/losses etc.i believe gold is still going to go along way yet.but ill be honest im no expert(who really is)with really knowing.
> 
> good luck and cheers




Hm "the trend is your friend till the bend at the end" thats very old dude!

Also its quite dangerous to use that if the market isnt a bull market eg currently


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You sid, "What may have confused you is the reference to the intrinsic value of the underlying being a separate calculation".
I can only repeat things so many times.
Until the option is "in the money", it has no "defined intrinsic value" from a financial perspective.
If you want to have your cake and eat it, then you can rightly claim that everything must have an intrincic value because it is what it is.
It seems pointless to say the derivative in question has an intrinsic value when it is not in the money AND when it is, so the world of finance "defines intrinsic value as the quantum by which a derivative "is in the money". If it is not in the money it no intrinsic value.
If we are talking at cross purposes here, forgive me as I read your statement as suggesting the "underlier" to have an intrinsic value.  From a conceptual perspective it may have, but from a strict financial perspective it is defined relative to being in the money or not.
I cannot reply to your Coca Cola example as you add dimensions that we have not discussed: GAAP simply provides rules to use for valuations.  GAAP cannot change "intrinsic value" and, in any case, other rules for valuing companies would give different outcomes.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> Until the option is "in the money", it has no "defined intrinsic value" from a financial perspective.




Correct, and if you look at the calculation;



> KO as I type is trading @ $41.36
> Therefore Option #1 has an "Intrinsic value" of $0.36 + Time Value
> Option #2 has "Intrinsic value" of $0.00 + Time Value




You will see that Option number 2, which is in point of fact currently OTM (I see I typed ITM) shows;

Intrinsic Value = $0.00
Time Value = $0.05........
This is for the $50.00 Call Expiry Feb 18 (there is no $51.00 Call......at the time of example I simply used a hypothetical expiry value)

Barring the typo, of ITM/OTM, the calculation remains unchanged, that is, no intrinsic value, just time value.



> I cannot reply to your Coca Cola example as you add dimensions that we have not discussed: GAAP simply provides rules to use for valuations. GAAP cannot change "intrinsic value" and, in any case, other rules for valuing companies would give different outcomes.




Of course they were dicussed, you in point of fact brought them up in the first place;



> In relation to your Coca Cola example, you have confused "intangible" with "intrinsic" - they are quite different concepts.
> Irrespective of what you believe, you cannot destroy the intrinsic value of Coca Cola, or Nike, or BHP, or Mercedes, or Honda, but their "values" (in a dollar sense) will change considerably over time. The intangibles are tools we can use to measure or "approximate" an intrinsic value for these companies




And as pointed out, while separate conceptually, intangibles are quite identifiable, they can be calculated and assigned a dollar value, and this dollar value can be integrated into an intrinsic valuation.

This intangible valuation can be damaged, resulting in a tangible dollar loss.
Intrinsic value can be damaged and suffer a tangible dollar loss.

Gold, does not possess an intrinsic value.
Gold possesses a utility value.............and I challenge that it is $500+



> If you want to have your cake and eat it, then you can rightly claim that everything must have an intrincic value because it is what it is.




Which is precisely what I didn't say.
To have an intrinsic value, there must be a cash-flow associated.



> forgive me as I read your statement as suggesting the "underlier" to have an intrinsic value.




The "underlier" or the common stock, does have an intrinsic valuation, and it is a separate calculation from the value assigned to the derivative (Option) as the derivatives value is the amount by which it is ITM.
This has absolutely nothing to do with the intrinsic value of KO common.



> GAAP cannot change "intrinsic value" and, in any case, other rules for valuing companies would give different outcomes.




GAAP can alter valuations tremendously. It is the skill of the analyst to expose the machinations of manipulated results arising from the application of various GAAP standards.

Certainly different analysts will arrive at different valuations. This is not really an issue that resides with GAAP in isolation however.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Thank you for correcting your typo.

I have no problem with this notion: "And as pointed out, while separate conceptually, intangibles are quite identifiable, they can be calculated and assigned a dollar value, and this dollar value can be integrated into an intrinsic valuation."

Given that you are presenting your case from the perspective of financial theory, which of itself has concocted its own set of rules, you and I will never agree.

It's not that I have a problem with financial theory, but its application demands that any calculation of intrinsic value is based on assumptions, and it is these assumptions that are quantified.  Where intrinsic value is presented as future free cash flow or future economic profits it implies not only that the original assumptions are correct, but also that their impacts over time are correctly forecast.

When we come to gold, you will tackle "intrinsic value" from the financial theory models that, you suggest, gives it only a "utility value".

So that we can agree to disagree (hopefully), I will continue to use the more widely understood definition of "intrinsic value" which has very little to do with economic theory.

I have posted elsewhere for quite a few years on gold and can only claim a track record that goes back to 2000.  Given that our humble opinions are dwarfed everyday by the market's actions, I will continue to take guidance from the markets on the realisable price of all that is traded there.  That means that while gold is over $500 I respect that the market "has spoken".
But because of how I have come to understand the "intrinsic value" of this golden commodity, I have every confidence that at some point this year it will trade very near to, if not over $700.  It may reach that price through sheer speculation, or whatever means.  And at the end of the day, should I see the market decisively turn on gold so that it no longer has what I perceive to be value of any measure, I will sell out of my positions.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> Given that you are presenting your case from the perspective of financial theory, which of itself has concocted its own set of rules, you and I will never agree



.

That would certainly seem to be the case.



> It's not that I have a problem with financial theory, but its application demands that any calculation of intrinsic value is based on assumptions, and it is these assumptions that are quantified. Where intrinsic value is presented as future free cash flow or future economic profits it implies not only that the original assumptions are correct, but also that their impacts over time are correctly forecast.




In some models calculating intrinsic value, you would be correct in your assertion. In other models your assertion would be incorrect.



> When we come to gold, you will tackle "intrinsic value" from the financial theory models that, you suggest, gives it only a "utility value".
> 
> So that we can agree to disagree (hopefully), I will continue to use the more widely understood definition of "intrinsic value" which has very little to do with economic theory.




Of course you can use whatever methodology you wish, it is irrelevant to myself. However, what needed to be illustrated was that your valuation of intrinsic value was at variance with other methods of intrinsic value.

Others may agree or disagree with your definition of intrinsic value, and this will bw irrelevant to you. However, someone lacking experience within the financial markets should now stop to question if they really understand what they are doing.

The disagreement between ourselves really hinges on the discussion between investment as contrasted with speculation.

You have stated that your methodology places your analysis within the realms of a fundamental analysis. I contend that it does no such thing, and that it places your analysis firmly in the speculative camp.



> I have posted elsewhere for quite a few years on gold and can only claim a track record that goes back to 2000. Given that our humble opinions are dwarfed everyday by the market's actions, I will continue to take guidance from the markets on the realisable price of all that is traded there. That means that while gold is over $500 I respect that the market "has spoken".




Here is the direct evidence of your speculative analysis.
You are stating in no uncertain terms that you believe in Efficient Market Theory (EMT) I personally do not subscribe to EMT in its purest form.

Herein lies the fundamental difference between Technical analysis, or Speculation, and Fundamental analysis, or Investment.

Technical analysis subscribes hook-line-sinker to EMT
Fundamental analysis does not.



> But because of how I have come to understand the "intrinsic value" of this golden commodity, I have every confidence that at some point this year it will trade very near to, if not over $700. It may reach that price through sheer speculation, or whatever means. And at the end of the day, should I see the market decisively turn on gold so that it no longer has what I perceive to be value of any measure, I will sell out of my positions.




Which makes a mockery of the entire concept of the "intrinsic value" of gold that you have tried to foist upon me. Absolute nonsense.

jog on
d998


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hm "the trend is your friend till the bend at the end" thats very old dude!
> 
> Also its quite dangerous to use that if the market isnt a bull market eg currently




your right old way to trade but proved  profitable to me.im too old and lazy now to worry chart abc this and that..the trend is not really my friend at the moment.so keeps your stops trailing simple.saying that though ive recently been stopped out of a few of my stocks but just about all with a profit behind them.i will wait now till market sentiment changes which i dont think will be long.ill be back in off we go again.

sometimes i think people make it all to complex.ride the winners get out if you have made a mistake in your judgement.

its a good way for me not everyone i dont like to be stressed.i pick my stocks my stop loss in place if it retraces against my judgement so be it.ive lost abit but not alot.the good winners always seem to outweighthe little loosers.

im happy with my way even if im trading back in the dinosaur days.25yrs still in the game cant be too bad a track record.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
We have divergent views.
You have yet to indicate what value you see gold in the future.
That is the point of this thread, not whether or not the intrinsic value of gold that has pervaded the earth for thousands of years fits - or not - within the very modern economic theory that can only ascribe a commodity a utility value.
The likes of copper, aluminium and even silver have a well defined utility value, but they are not kept in Central Banks, and respond amazingly well price-wise to supply/demand issues.
I remain unclear about your aim here.
While TA and FA are different ways to approach putting money into the market, I see neither as superior as they both must take a future position and I have never seen anyone accurately predict the future of the markets day in day out.
I would urge any trader or investor to take care in every decision they make, and believe it always best to do it from a position of "understanding".
Again, what does this have to do with the future price of gold?
Technically, the charts show gold long term bullish.
Fundamentally, mine supply has not met demand for some years now, and above ground reserves (from exchange warehouses and Central Banks), will be used to meet the annual shortfall.  Mining costs have increased markedly in recent years, adding significantly to per ounce costs of output: Suggesting producers will be reluctant to open up new mines unless gold prices stabilise at a higher level.
If the "utility value" is lower than the cost of supply, what are the consequences?


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Simple really. War and greed. People get greedy and sell. With sabre rattling happening i see gold going higher now and oil. Don't try and pick the tops and bottoms, just buy when it drops and sell when its on a roll. Easy money.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> You have yet to indicate what value you see gold in the future.
> That is the point of this thread, not whether or not the intrinsic value of gold that has pervaded the earth for thousands of years fits - or not - within the very modern economic theory that can only ascribe a commodity a utility value.




But that is exactly the point as far as I am concerned.
If I could calculate a utility value for gold, I would only be interested in paying 50% or less of that value. That would then provide to me a potential 100% return.



> While TA and FA are different ways to approach putting money into the market, I see neither as superior as they both must take a future position and I have never seen anyone accurately predict the future of the markets day in day out.




Again we are at polar opposites.
I view TA as a complete waste of time and a logical nonsense.
The future position to be taken in the market should be based upon a conservative analysis of the intrinsic value of the security, as rather than looking to the future to confirm & justify your analysis, I look to guard against the future. A completely different approach.



> Technically, the charts show gold long term bullish.




So what, who cares. Tomorrow the charts could break technical trendlines and signal the breakdown of the trend, and reverse back again 1 week later.

Charting, technicals have nothing to do with Gold, or KO, or YMH6, they map the PSYCHOLOGY of the participants, and this psychology or SENTIMENT can change without notice, without rhyme or reason, and destroy your position in a heartbeat.

Lets look at the contradictions and failings of your analysis.



> Fundamentally, mine supply has not met demand for some years now, and above ground reserves (from exchange warehouses and Central Banks), will be used to meet the annual shortfall. Mining costs have increased markedly in recent years, adding significantly to per ounce costs of output: Suggesting producers will be reluctant to open up new mines unless gold prices stabilise at a higher level.
> If the "utility value" is lower than the cost of supply, what are the consequences?




Point #1


> Mine supply has not met demand for some years.



 Lets assume that this assertion is correct, then;

If the current high(er) price of gold does attract increased supply, what would you expect the price of gold to do?
Go up
Go down.

I will opt for the latter. With increasing supply, will come an equilibrium of the supply/demand curve, and a stabilization, reduction in price.

With a price cap in operation, speculative money will start to leave, as speculative money by definition seeks price volatility.
Should price start to fall, increasingly the speculative money may move to the short side, increasing price weakness.

Point #2


> Above ground reserves will be (have been) used to meet the annual shortfall.




Therefore the analysis suggesting that price has risen, or will rise, due to an imbalance within the supply/demand curve, is also flawed, as, with equilibrim within supply/demand, price should stabilise within a range.
However due to the tremendous speculative interest overwhelming currently the economic or utility value, price will fluctuate due to the market dynamics.



> Mining costs have increased markedly in recent years, adding significantly to per ounce costs of output: Suggesting producers will be reluctant to open up new mines unless gold prices stabilise at a higher level.
> If the "utility value" is lower than the cost of supply, what are the consequences?




Agreed, mining and extraction costs have increased.
Agreed, development of new mines will be retarded.
Agreed, price will have to stabilise at a higher level, if supply and utility demand are to match.
If they do not, then we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

*crackaton* 



> Simple really. War and greed. People get greedy and sell. With sabre rattling happening i see gold going higher now and oil. Don't try and pick the tops and bottoms, just buy when it drops and sell when its on a roll. Easy money.




Easy money.
The cry of the doomed.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Something to ponder:
How long does it take to increase gold output to meet demand?
For the past 5 years higher prices have done very little to add to mine output and South Africa, the global leader, remains on trend of significant decline.
In 2005 gold consumption was around 3300 tonnes while mine output was only about 2500 tonnes: Both these numbers are expected to increase around 1.5% next year, and as the denominator for consumption is higher than for output, the tonnage of consumption will continue to outstrip supply going forward.
At this point in time there is no data suggesting mine supply will meet (fabrication) demand at any point in the foreseeable future.
By the way, most recent reliable data for gold costs had about 15% of miners producing gold at a cash cost below the average price of gold sold (full production costs are much higher again). In that year Sons of Gwalia, one of Australia's largest gold producers went belly up for that very reason.
So go to your "point#1" and extrapolate what the price of gold might be in 10 years time (or less) in the highly improbable event that supply and demand are in equilibrium at that time.
Your "Point#2" is an extension of point#1, so until we achieve "equilibrium" the likelihood of demand side pressures on gold will continue to move gold prices higher.
Not surprisingly, the shortfall in gold supply is coming from above ground supplies.  The quantities are vast and could plunge gold prices - and therefore producers - into economic ruin were reasonable quantities to be sold off.
However, Western Central Bank gold sales are currently being snaffled by Asian and Latin American Central Banks.
So we have a position where consumer demand is unmet from mine output, and Central Bank sales are being absorbed within the global framework.
All of this is occurring during a period of continually rising prices.
My speculative fundamental analysis suggests a conservative gold price of $700 this year based on the quantifiable intangibles that suggest it's a reasonably based intrinsic value. 
Why do namby pamby ducati types refuse to put a figure on gold going forward, preferring to obfuscate with economic theory which, curiously, appear to be difficult to calculate for a gold a utility value?
C'mon lad, get with the program here.
Put something on the table!


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> Something to ponder:
> How long does it take to increase gold output to meet demand?




Read the financial statements of the gold miners and calculate the time period, less current inventories. Very straightforward.



> For the past 5 years higher prices have done very little to add to mine output and South Africa, the global leader, remains on trend of significant decline.




This as it stands is an observation.
To turn it into an analysis, you will have to draw, and state a conclusion.
I will then be able to comment.



> In 2005 gold consumption was around 3300 tonnes while mine output was only about 2500 tonnes: Both these numbers are expected to increase around 1.5% next year, and as the denominator for consumption is higher than for output, the tonnage of consumption will continue to outstrip supply going forward.




The key word here is "expected".
And if both do increase by 1.5%, and consumption (demand) is higher than supply, then you would expect "price" to rise further.

However, I am not convinced that anything of the sort will happen.
The current high prices will soften utility demand on falling margins, and encourage supply, on rising margins.

That leaves the extremely fickle speculative demand, which will follow the wind of sentiment.



> At this point in time there is no data suggesting mine supply will meet (fabrication) demand at any point in the foreseeable future.
> By the way, most recent reliable data for gold costs had about 15% of miners producing gold at a cash cost below the average price of gold sold (full production costs are much higher again). In that year Sons of Gwalia, one of Australia's largest gold producers went belly up for that very reason.




And at this point it would behoove the analyst to really examine the demand data. And this is the point at which I entered this discussion;



> Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.
> 
> Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.
> 
> The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.
> 
> It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,” Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.




Speculation in gold is running into bubble territory.
When bubbles form, they can inflate for far longer than any might reasonably expect, but there will always only be one outcome.



> Not surprisingly, the shortfall in gold supply is coming from above ground supplies. The quantities are vast and could plunge gold prices - and therefore producers - into economic ruin were reasonable quantities to be sold off.
> However, Western Central Bank gold sales are currently being snaffled by Asian and Latin American Central Banks.
> So we have a position where consumer demand is unmet from mine output, and Central Bank sales are being absorbed within the global framework.




I would disagree, based on the previous quote.
"Consumer" demand is being snuffed out by speculative demand.
Consumer demand will remain on the sidelines, and stabilize the ultimate drop once speculative demand abates.



> My speculative fundamental analysis suggests a conservative gold price of $700 this year based on the quantifiable intangibles that suggest it's a reasonably based intrinsic value.




And you shall either be right or wrong. And even if you are right with your price target, this does not guarantee a profit, should the volatility increase and knock you out of your position..........as of course you subscribe to the "market is always right" mindset, and should your technical analysis of the markets message suggest that you are wrong.......even though you are right, you may miss your ultimate reward.



> Why do namby pamby ducati types refuse to put a figure on gold going forward, preferring to obfuscate with economic theory which, curiously, appear to be difficult to calculate for a gold a utility value?




Because you haven't asked me nicely.
Pretty please with ice cream and a cherry would be a good start.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You are unwittingly paying me a supreme compliment suggesting I am involved in technical analysis:  Elsewhere I am only known for my presentation of information based on "fundamentals".

So let's see how a few of your comments stacked up (too long to cover them all):

Quote:
Something to ponder:
How long does it take to increase gold output to meet demand?  
In relation to straightforward ramp up the minimum time frame from decision to expand to increased output is about 2 years.  
Ducati’s answer, “Read the financial statements of the gold miners and calculate the time period, less current inventories. Very straightforward”, does not cut it.
There are many reasons why.  For example, a mature underground mine cannot be significantly ramped up as there is a physical constraint to getting more ore from several kilometres underground.  Also, in the case of underground mines, often the reserves are literally being proven as further mining occurs at depth.  In other words, it is not unusual for underground mine life to be less than 5 years based on reserves, and each year the reserves must be added to in order to match depletion.
In the case of Greenfield gold mines, the accepted minimum time frame to get into production is around 5 years from discovery and, at best, 4 years from commencing a  BFS.
Quote:
For the past 5 years higher prices have done very little to add to mine output and South Africa, the global leader, remains on trend of significant decline.  
ducati said, “This as it stands is an observation. To turn it into an analysis, you will have to draw, and state a conclusion. I will then be able to comment.”
This one is a bit of a no brainer as the information is readily available (see below chart) and a conclusion has been made.  Note that the legend for the chart is at http://www.gold.org/value/markets/supply_demand/mine_production.html and the bottom colour is South Africa’s production profile.
Quote:
In 2005 gold consumption was around 3300 tonnes while mine output was only about 2500 tonnes: Both these numbers are expected to increase around 1.5% next year, and as the denominator for consumption is higher than for output, the tonnage of consumption will continue to outstrip supply going forward.  

ducati’s comment is as follows. “The key word here is "expected".  And if both do increase by 1.5%, and consumption (demand) is higher than supply, then you would expect "price" to rise further. However, I am not convinced that anything of the sort will happen. The current high prices will soften utility demand on falling margins, and encourage supply, on rising margins. That leaves the extremely fickle speculative demand, which will follow the wind of sentiment.”

We will need to revisit this comment into the future and see how well he did.

Now a pretty please with whomever on top as you so choose - come up with a forward price on gold and we have something to toss around.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> You are unwittingly paying me a supreme compliment suggesting I am involved in technical analysis: Elsewhere I am only known for my presentation of information based on "fundamentals".




Really, if I felt my analysis was based on the fundamentals, and I was called a technician I'd be really hurt.



> In relation to straightforward ramp up the minimum time frame from decision to expand to increased output is about 2 years.
> Ducati’s answer, “Read the financial statements of the gold miners and calculate the time period, less current inventories. Very straightforward”, does not cut it.




I'm afraid it does.
You see that information will be made available, or should be in the financial reporting. By reading the reports, (MD&A + Notes) you will be able to calculate the time required to replenish inventory, also, inventory, as the name suggests, is the reserve of inventory held at the time the Balance sheet was produced.
For an up to the minute inventory, which I doubt just anyone would get, you would need to contact the company directly. A shareholder of substantial size would get the information, smaller ones .......who knows.



> Also, in the case of underground mines, often the reserves are literally being proven as further mining occurs at depth. In other words, it is not unusual for underground mine life to be less than 5 years based on reserves, and each year the reserves must be added to in order to match depletion.
> In the case of Greenfield gold mines, the accepted minimum time frame to get into production is around 5 years from discovery and, at best, 4 years from commencing a BFS.




All in the financial reports.



> ducati’s comment is as follows. “The key word here is "expected". And if both do increase by 1.5%, and consumption (demand) is higher than supply, then you would expect "price" to rise further. However, I am not convinced that anything of the sort will happen. The current high prices will soften utility demand on falling margins, and encourage supply, on rising margins. That leaves the extremely fickle speculative demand, which will follow the wind of sentiment






> We will need to revisit this comment into the future and see how well he did.




Feel free to revisit it at any time you wish, I cannot be shown to be wrong, as of course I hedged my answer.
The reason of course is that currently the price contains a very large speculative component............and this is unpredictable, it may rise, it may fall........following the wind of sentiment, whatever happens, I can claim success.

Really "rob" you need to actually think a little before responding.



> Now a pretty please with whomever on top as you so choose - come up with a forward price on gold and we have something to toss around.




Ok, I'll have a think about it, after all you did try to ask nicely, even though you forgot my ice cream & cherry.

jog on
d998


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati and rederob...

thumbs up for the excellent discussion, clearly u both know ur stuff...

ducati, im with u and mainly invest on fundamentals, but dont be so quick to know those technical traders....

i know of some people who have been very profitable trading based on technical analysis...


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

dear ducati
Let me deal with only the issue of "inventory" as you have called it.
As you may know, in NZ and Australia we use JORC to provide minimum standards for public reporting that ensures investors and their advisers have all the information they would reasonably require for forming a reliable opinion on the results and estimates being reported.  These reports must be released to the public by listed companies, so one does not have to contact anyone to get the latest state of play.
If you were to rely on Annual or 6 Monthly Reports for this information you would not get the most up to date data, as mining companies are required to report against these standards once a competent person has signed off.
By the way, we usually talk about a “resource inventory” and it is typically broken down to mineral resources and mineral (ore) reserves, and includes their respective sub-categories, measured, indicated and inferred resources, and proved and probable reserves. 

You might use "cash flows", but I use JORC reports as the most valuable tool in my investment arsenal on resource equities.

I am curious to know how, as you put it, one calculates the time required to replenish inventory.

A producer of gold is a producer because it has defined its reserves and knows what it has a reasonable expectation of finding within the boundaries of these reserves.
Outside this boundary it may have a resource base that is yet to be converted to reserves, and it will implement infill drilling to "prove" economic grades (cut-offs determine the quality/quantity that can be economically mined).
Some producers have converted all their resources to reserves, and might need to rely on extension drilling, typically "along strike" if that option is still available.  In these cases there is no guarantee that the strike length is continuous to any meaningful extent.

I emailed ducati’s reply to a mining engineer I am in contact with and he’s probably still laughing.  He wants to know if ducati is available to ferret around a few of his prospective tenements for a couple of years, or if he can just cheat and put something on the resource inventory that meets his theory about time frames and ability to replace reserves.  He also said if ducati can get his hands on a drilling rig (better still a crew that has a clue), he can name his price.

I am apologising in advance for not being able to post further replies as my work commitments will have me travelling around most days for the next month.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> ducati and rederob...
> 
> thumbs up for the excellent discussion, clearly u both know ur stuff...
> 
> ducati, im with u and mainly invest on fundamentals, but dont be so quick to know those technical traders....
> 
> i know of some people who have been very profitable trading based on technical analysis...




Yep, btw an interesting article

http://www.gold.org/value/news/article/3474



> Value News
> China hungry for gold
> 14:25:23 GMT, 14 February, 2006
> Shanghai Gold Exchange president Wang Zhe believes that China could become one of the world's biggest gold importers.
> 
> The country's gold trading volume increased by 36 per cent in 2005, and Mr Zhe said China "has the potential to be one of the biggest gold markets in the world," according to the Financial Times.
> 
> His views are supported by recent consumer spending in the world's most populous country.
> 
> *The Old Phoenix jewellery store in Shanghai has been selling a large number of $2,000 gold bars embossed with the Beijing Olympics logo. *
> 
> A salesman said that "there will be a new bar every year until 2008 and many people want the complete set".
> 
> The situation is vastly different from even a few years ago – up to 1982, individuals in the country were not allowed to own gold.
> 
> However, the country is now poised to become a significant gold importer.
> 
> "Commodities will have a strong investment case in the year ahead because of the strong Asian growth," said Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch.
> 
> Gold in particular has a strong case as global growth gains momentum in the second half of 2006.




So I wonder what happens to GOLD after Beijing Olympics in 2008?


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob*



> dear ducati
> Let me deal with only the issue of "inventory" as you have called it.
> As you may know, in NZ and Australia we use JORC to provide minimum standards for public reporting that ensures investors and their advisers have all the information they would reasonably require for forming a reliable opinion on the results and estimates being reported. These reports must be released to the public by listed companies, so one does not have to contact anyone to get the latest state of play.






> If you were to rely on Annual or 6 Monthly Reports for this information you would not get the most up to date data, as mining companies are required to report against these standards once a competent person has signed off.




As I do not invest in NZ, nor Australia, I do not follow the reporting standards
However, unless the "JORK" are released on a daily basis, you could potentially still have a time lag. Time lags are not of vital importance to myself, as I am not a momentum player. The JORK report would be more than adequate for my needs.



> By the way, we usually talk about a “resource inventory” and it is typically broken down to mineral resources and mineral (ore) reserves, and includes their respective sub-categories, measured, indicated and inferred resources, and proved and probable reserves



. 

Agreed.
All inventory, whether from an industrial manufacturer, or commodity producer has a classification process for inventory.
Proven Reserves are extremely important within this regard.



> A producer of gold is a producer because it has defined its reserves and knows what it has a reasonable expectation of finding within the boundaries of these reserves.




Agreed.



> Outside this boundary it may have a resource base that is yet to be converted to reserves, and it will implement infill drilling to "prove" economic grades (cut-offs determine the quality/quantity that can be economically mined).




Agreed.
And within the context of these two paragraphs you will find the companies depreciation (depletion) charges for both the ore (Property, mine) and Plant & Equipment required for extractive purposes. This however is not the investors calculation, and if the investor should utilize the companys depletion charges, he in all likelihood will end up overpaying for his investment.
The investor from the disclosed information must calculate the depreciation charge upon his investment at the time of purchase and prevailing values.



> Some producers have converted all their resources to reserves, and might need to rely on extension drilling, typically "along strike" if that option is still available. In these cases there is no guarantee that the strike length is continuous to any meaningful extent.




These should be ignored, as they are purely speculative, and cannot be included within any meaningful calculation.



> I emailed ducati’s reply to a mining engineer I am in contact with and he’s probably still laughing. He wants to know if ducati is available to ferret around a few of his prospective tenements for a couple of years, or if he can just cheat and put something on the resource inventory that meets his theory about time frames and ability to replace reserves. He also said if ducati can get his hands on a drilling rig (better still a crew that has a clue), he can name his price.




Interesting how people come to conclusions.
They take a bare minimum of information, and in this case information that has been taken out of context, and extrapolate opinions based on this incomplete information.



> I am curious to know how, as you put it, one calculates the time required to replenish inventory.




As evidence, you do not actually know how I calculate the inventory replenishment rate. Yet based on in essence zero information, you are drawing conclusions. As the conclusion is based on zero analysis, based on zero information, the conclusion will most likely have zero relevance.

I am always intrigued by persons who invoke 3'rd parties, largely anonymous, to lend authority and credence to their flawed analysis.

The psychology of "Authority" has been studied at length within psychology looking to explain human decision making. By invoking a person of authority, in this case a "mining authority" you seek to influence the flow of the discussion to your bias.

Now you see I am a professional miner.
My wife pays me $0.50 a day to divine water with my forked twig.
Ridiculous you say............agreed, but on my resume, I have professional miner listed.

You see your mining engineer may be the CEO, or the tea boy.
By applying some common sense to the issue, lets take a stab at guessing which one he may be.

If the CEO,
I would expect a request for further information;
What are my qualifications, if any?
An example of the calculation, and the data utilized.
Previous experience of valuations of inventory.

If the tea boy........
Yeah, the guys an ********......I'm with you.



> I am apologising in advance for not being able to post further replies as my work commitments will have me travelling around most days for the next month.




A skeptic would read that and think............hmmmm, looks a bit like a bale out, the heat in the kitchen is rising.
I have already humiliated myself by begging for a valuation, time to cut and run.

But of course I am not a skeptic.
I understand that some people must still work for a living, and I am in no rush, and extremely patient...........I shall continue the discussion when work commitments allow you to continue.

The topic is diverging slightly as well.
Initially it seemed that the question really revolved around the *price of gold ............the commodity* which without a cash-flow is extremely speculative and difficult to value.

I have devised a methodology that will provide a basis of a valuation for the price of gold.

If however, you wish to value *the production value,..............viz. gold produced via a business valuation, that is what I do all day long, value businesses.......apart from when I am here of course!* 

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*nizar* 



> ducati, im with u and mainly invest on fundamentals, but dont be so quick to know those technical traders....
> 
> i know of some people who have been very profitable trading based on technical analysis...




Well, you may well do.
I have to admit that I also know a few successful technical traders.
However, the rather limited statistics that I have gathered indicate that the majority of technical traders that I am personally aware of, struggle constantly, and are net losers.

Although, this is probably not the thread to debate the point.
jog on
d998


----------



## chicken

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Chicken reads about this subject at www.gold-eagle.com  have great write up on GOLD...and trading 24 hours around the clock...check it out


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Any specific article at GE?
I have not been there in ages since I was banned for mentioning some Aussie stocks that up up around several hundred %


----------



## ducati916

*Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets*

Social Psychology 

And the point of intersection with mathematics, specifically statistics .
We have within the world of distribution several different calculations, in no particular order;

Normal, or Gaussian
Poisson
Erlang
Power-law, and
Bayesian.

Bayesian has particular correlation to technical analysis, and technical analysts .

The key to Bayesian reasoning is not in having an extensive, unbiased sample, which is the eternal worry of frequentists, but rather in having an "appropriate" prior .
This prior is a paradigm, or model, of how the world, or in this example, the market functions, which can be expessed as a mathematical probability distribution of the frequency with which events can be predicted 

This would seem to describe technical analysis, in that "priors" are assigned so much weight within the analysis. 
It particularly crops up (and with alarming regularity) when discussing the concept of "probability" This set-up has XYZ probability of success.
This will tie in with the nascent field of "Behavioral Finance", but before looking at specific examples thought I might see what others think.

jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets*

Son Kris is doing his doctorate in physics specialising in Laser and Photonics.

Ive had many discussions with Kris on the mathamatical models that I use and that could be used in the study of finance and indeed trading.

I remember one afternoon when he grabbed a piece of paper and wrote 2 pages of calculations which looked like something out of Rainman.

With a smile he said this.

"You can mathamatically explain anything you wish.You can also mathamatically prove or disprove the same arguement."

I see I said so whats the 2 pages mean.?

Here he said I have Mathamatically proven that black is indeed white!

I cant argue mathematics as I'm not that smart.
nor do I think a discussion here would mean much to those reading.

I've always said that I believe that traders have the ability to turn the simple into the most complex.
Duc I really think this is an example of this.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets*

*tech/a* 

Interesting reply.
Was it not just yesterday that you were promulgating some advice and venturing an opinion based on my being rather closed minded?



> Perhaps you need to do a business course,Im currently doing an Advanced business Management degree at Adelaide Uni.Fantastic




My reply went; 



> Tried that, I found the vast majority of the lecturers to be too slow for my taste.
> Every now and then you encounter a great one, but not often enough to justify my time.




To which you replied,



> To slow in what? Teaching,presenting new material? Presenting material of interest or practical value.
> You seem very closed in your veiws---yours must be correct as you must be right.




And here we are not 24 hours later singing a different tune,



> I cant argue mathematics as I'm not that smart.
> nor do I think a discussion here would mean much to those reading.
> 
> I've always said that I believe that traders have the ability to turn the simple into the most complex.
> Duc I really think this is an example of this.




Now of course you have illustrated *with the absolute PERFECT example of  Beyesian reasoning* the extrapolation of an opinion based on very little to zero quantitative information.

You really have very little quantitative or qualitative information save your own bias, or "priors" on which to judge the interest or lack thereof.

This really equates to the Price chart utilized by technical analysis.
You have very limited factual information regarding the stock, yet, due to the "priors" of the analyst, they will project a future trend, that by mathematical law must prove to be either right or wrong......bless me, 50/50 yet again.

How this all ties into psychology, behavioral finance, and some of the latest theories in finance is rather interesting...........well to myself anyway.

jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets*

Fire away old son,and others if I can understand it happy to learn something.

Dont know about everyone else but I cant make sense of your topics!

Thought my post indicated that I cant add anything.

Mate I'm thicker than 3 coats of paint so if I can make a quid anyone can.

Infact I've found those with high intellegence tend to fail dismally in trading/and property developement/investment.
Seems that by the time they have worked it out so that they are 100% sure they are doing the right thing---opportunity is lost-gone-disappeared- no longer existant.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets*

Leading on from the preceeding, a question for the advocates of technical analysis.............

Within your trading paradigm, are your decisions to buy and sell securities based on analysis, or emotion?


jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL

*Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Leading on from the preceeding, a question for the advocates of technical analysis.............
> 
> Within your trading paradigm, are your decisions to buy and sell securities based on analysis, or emotion?
> 
> 
> jog on
> d998




I'd say the analysis OF the emotion Duc.

As one example, some folks practice the art of "nearology". Say XYZ exploration NL strikes a whopping gold find, the nearologist will find out other companies with tenements in the general area, looking for technical justification to enter.

The news punters will most likely me doing the same, based on emotion at having missed the big move on XYZ... a very short term strategy.

I could go on but you get the picture.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Looks like ducati fell off his bike!
Much obfuscation and parsing, and suspension of belief in favour of theory nearing diatribe, but where is his clear and unambiguous statement on where gold is heading?
As to which economic treatment one chooses to "value" gold, it matters not as the deciding factor remains its future price (given we know its present and previous prices).
ducati, stump up!


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> Much obfuscation and parsing, and suspension of belief in favour of theory nearing diatribe, but where is his clear and unambiguous statement on where gold is heading?




I entered this discussion to argue the case against gold possessing any "intrinsic value" in the financial definition. That gold does possess a "utility value" and that this utility value is not represented by the current price.

The current price of the commodity = utility value + speculative value

Speculative value is based on sentiment, emotion, psychology.
As such, its value is incalcuable, it simply is the price last traded.

Of course trading, or investing within the physical is but one way of taking an exposure to gold. The other way is to take exposure via the "Producers".
Therefore, based on a valuation of the producers we can "estimate" the speculative component of the commodity reflected in the equation.

There is possibly a second methodology to infer the specualtive price into the future of the physical commodity. This calculation utilizes some "fundamental" inputs by which the psychological reaction (pricing) can be correlated.

Combining the two valuation methodologies may, or may not, add some value to the question of "price" going into the future. 



> As to which economic treatment one chooses to "value" gold, it matters not as the deciding factor remains its future price (given we know its present and previous prices).




Absolute nonsense.

jog on
d998


----------



## globevestor

*All aboard, gold is moving again!*

All aboard, gold is moving again. See gold future chart (*http://tinyurl.com/m4rkn)* and gold stock index chart(http://www.masteremail.com/Images/Charts/IndexCharts/$HUI_Daily_VolumeChart.jpg). Cartoons may help. Be warned, the cartoons may be offesive to some. See Jim Sinclair's cartoons (http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=3410&T_ARID=3479&cTID=0&cCat=&cSubCat=)

P.S. I think gold has entered the phase where charting has diminishing use because geo-political factors will lead, e.g. do not be surprised if gold move than $20 per day.

Free fund prices - http://www.globevestor.com/download.html


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati

More of the same from you!
The fact is that gold possessed an "intrinsic" value for thousands of years before "economic theory" came along with an arcane set of definitions of its own.

You and I will take different positions, or "cues" based on our different approaches, but it does not alter the title of this thread.

I contend, through an approach I have held for over 4 years now in relation to gold, that its price will continue to climb, and markedly higher than its present price.  

I have a strong view that gold's next upleg will be relatively swift and strong and carry the gold price decisively over $600 before end June this year, and that further uplegs will see it at/near/over $700 by year's end.

You can pontificate over valuation theory till the cows come home, or sheep, or whatever else comes home where you are.

I make my position clear, with time frames, and am more than happy to wear the consequences of being wrong.  There are some that think by being staunchly bullish means one will take a tumble if they are out by a country mile.  I think that’s possible near a blow-off top, but there is no suggestion anywhere credible that gold is at a “blow-off top”.

Please come back and tell me when I am wrong.
In the meantime, if you want to get on topic, have a go at getting something down on the direction of gold.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: All aboard, gold is moving again!*



			
				globevestor said:
			
		

> P.S. I think gold has entered the phase where charting has diminishing use because geo-political factors will lead, e.g. do not be surprised if gold move than $20 per day.




Try the 15 minute chart


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> The fact is that gold possessed an "intrinsic" value for thousands of years before "economic theory" came along with an arcane set of definitions of its own.




The key word in your assertion is *"possessed"* as of course, once upon a time, gold was utilized as "money", and later, it was utilized as the physical guarantee behind "money"

But you see, those days are gone.
With the passing of the gold standard, so passed the *reality of gold possessing an intrinsic value defined in the language of finance*.

All that remains are the psychological and emotional "hooks" that still pass as an accurate description. You obviously are one of those emotional persons.
This is becoming increasingly obvious as your posts are filled not with logical argument, or factual data. In fact, you have already admitted that your valuation from an "intrinsic" perspective is based on something other than any financial understanding or definition.



> So that we can agree to disagree (hopefully), I will continue to use the more widely understood definition of "intrinsic value" which has very little to do with economic theory.




As the emotional hook in gold has worked ever deeper into your psyche, your posts towards any that hold an opposing view have tended towards the "personal". Some examples;



> Why do namby pamby ducati types
> 
> I emailed ducati’s reply to a mining engineer I am in contact with and he’s probably still laughing. He wants to know if ducati is available to ferret around a few of his prospective tenements for a couple of years, or if he can just cheat and put something on the resource inventory that meets his theory about time frames and ability to replace reserves. He also said if ducati can get his hands on a drilling rig (better still a crew that has a clue), he can name his price.
> 
> Looks like ducati fell off his bike!
> 
> You can pontificate over valuation theory till the cows come home, or sheep, or whatever else comes home where you are.




What makes it even more interesting from where I sit is that you seem to hold the expectation that this approach will elicit a valuation on the speculative content of gold.

Unfortunately your psychological skills are so rudimentary, as to be almost non-existent. Had you used alternate psychological tools, such as the *Theory of Reciprocation*  I may very well have provided exactly what you are asking for, as to date I have found your analysis to be that of a novice, lacking in penetrative insight, factual data supporting the assertions. 

In fact your valuation would seem to reside in a technical analysis, utilizing Elliot Wave. Technical analysis, is emotional analysis, and as far as I am concerned simply demonstrates your complete lack of analytical capability.

Therefore, until you can provide me with a "reason" as to why I should provide the research that I have completed, I shall simply refuse to do so, on the basis that your amateur hour psychology has not sufficiently demonstrated an understanding of the speculative forces at work in the POG.

Should you reconsider your position, I shall require an;
Apology, and
Price of gold in the following time periods;

1915 - 1920
1930 - 1940
1940 - 1950
1980 - 2006

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
I apologise.
I thought you had the balls to post your views on the future price of gold.
It is clear you prefer to play word games.
If you want to play word games with me, open another thread.
Otherwise our time can be spent on more satisfying pursuits, elsewhere, I would trust.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 

Apology accepted. 

I am more than happy to post an analysis on the "future speculative price" of gold. I'll play whatever games I wish, on whatever thread I choose. You see that being a "public forum" people have the choice of propagating whatever viewpoint or opinion they wish.

If anyone can provide the prices of gold, or point me in a direction of the data, then I shall provide the analytical framework that may suggest a mechanism by which the "speculative price" can be estimated.

1915 - 1920
1930 - 1940
1940 - 1950
1970 - 2005

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> *rederob*
> If anyone can provide the prices of gold, or point me in a direction of the data, then I shall provide the analytical framework that may suggest a mechanism by which the "speculative price" can be estimated.
> 
> 1915 - 1920
> 1930 - 1940
> 1940 - 1950
> 1970 - 2005



ducati
In which currency do you want to work?
US dollars have most data.
You would be aware that a "gold standard" existed during many of these periods.
Application of the standard differed between nations and time periods.  For example, from 1865 to mid 1920s a Latin Monetary Union existed between France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, and later Greece: Gold and silver coins of each country were legal tender throughout the union.  A Scandinavian Monetary Union existed for a roughly similar period, but it was based solely on a gold standard.
The advent of WWI led to Britain withdrawing gold from circulation and a de facto cessation to their gold standard.
After the war, in 1924 Germany adopts the Reichsmark and returns to the gold standard (the Reichsmark, replaced the Rentenmark, with a value equivalent to the pre-war gold mark). A year later Britain does the same, and so to does France in 1928.
By the way, the US had a de facto gold standard as a result of their Coinage Act of 1873 until Keynesian economics intervened from 1933. President Roosevelt, despite an election pledge to maintain the gold standard issued an order forbidding banks to make gold payments on March 11, 1933: No person could hold more than $100 in gold coins, except for collector’s coins. He also made it unlawful to export gold for payment abroad, unless done through the Treasury (the penalty for defying Roosevelt was 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine). On Jan. 30, 1934 Roosevelt signed the Gold Reserve Act into law, transferring title of the Federal Reserve Banks’ deposits of gold to the U.S. Treasury. The next day Roosevelt reduced the gold content of the dollar by 41 percent, raising the price of gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35.00 an ounce.
France and the USA were the largest gold holders in the 1930s but by 1936 France realised it was not good politics to maintain a gold standard.
From 1946 to 1971 the Bretton Woods system was in place amongst signatory nations and this pegged gold at $35/ounce while at the same time making the US dollar the world’s reserve currency.  Nixon abolished the gold standard when he realized the US could not actually pay in gold the value of the reserve currency in its printed quantity – a matter quickly realized when in the second week of August 1971, the British ambassador turned up at the Treasury Department to request that $3 billion be converted into gold. ….and then the French, and then who else?
So in 1971 the last link between Gold and the Dollar had gone, and the result inevitable: In February 1973, the world's currencies "floated". By the end of 1974, Gold had soared from $35 to $195 an ounce.
On January 1, 1975 it again became "legal" for US citizens to again own gold. The U.S. Treasury in particular and many other Central Banks sold large quantities of gold in anticipation, making massive paper profits in the process. The move depressed the price of gold, which fell to US$103 in eighteen months.
Gold regained its ($195) December 1974 level by July 1978, hitting subsequently more highs; $250 in February 1979; $300 in July; and soaring from $381 on Nov. 1, 1979 to $850 on Jan. 21, 1980 before crashing and burning for the next 20 years.
You can easily find gold charts for this latter period: I prefer the ease of navigating through Kitco: 
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html


----------



## kevo

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold is going to about 580 and might then retrace for a month or two, but not go down less that 530. It will be 650 by the end of the year and 2000+ in five years.

http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/02/goldbugs_might_be_right.html


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 

Unfortunately the link provided is password protected.
Never mind I shall do it the longhand old fashioned way.



> In which currency do you want to work?
> US dollars have most data.
> You would be aware that a "gold standard" existed during many of these periods.




Yes, US dollars.
Regarding the gold standard, yes that was indeed my "assumption", the problem with assumptions of course is that they can often drop you in the deep end, so until confirming that there were no speculative anomalies, I prefer not to assume a $35.00 gold standard price.



> So in 1971 the last link between Gold and the Dollar had gone, and the result inevitable: In February 1973, the world's currencies "floated". By the end of 1974, Gold had soared from $35 to $195 an ounce.
> On January 1, 1975 it again became "legal" for US citizens to again own gold. The U.S. Treasury in particular and many other Central Banks sold large quantities of gold in anticipation, making massive paper profits in the process. The move depressed the price of gold, which fell to US$103 in eighteen months.
> Gold regained its ($195) December 1974 level by July 1978, hitting subsequently more highs; $250 in February 1979; $300 in July; and soaring from $381 on Nov. 1, 1979 to $850 on Jan. 21, 1980 before crashing and burning for the next 20 years.
> You can easily find gold charts for this latter period: I prefer the ease of navigating through Kitco:




But this is enough to be going on with.
jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
The link should not be password protected - try Kitco.com and then link to their historical charts if that is easier.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

As a starting point, although we are not specifically going to calculate a "price" for gold, as how do you calculate a speculation, we can calculate the economic factors around gold, and "back into a valuation". Thus as a first step it would be useful to establish are we in point of fact dealing with a speculative bubble?

Or, is the present price of gold supported by the utility value of gold, and that this represents a strong and sustainable trend into the future.

The "Price" of gold will to an extent be determined by supply and demand.

Supply will = existing gold + produced gold
Demand will = utility demand + speculative demand

Let us first examine produced gold from an industry standpoint;

Industry Statistics  
Market Capitalization:........................................... 182B 
Price / Earnings: ...................................................38.9 
Price / Book: ........................................................3.4 
Net Profit Margin (mrq):........................................ 11.4% 
Price To Free Cash Flow (mrq):.............................. -67.7 
Return on Equity:................................................. 8.9% 
Total Debt / Equity:.............................................. 0.0 
Dividend Yield:..................................................... 0.9% 

Leaders in PEG Ratio........................................ (ttm, 5yr expected)   
KINROSS GOLD CP [KGC] ...................................... 12.38  
ROYAL GOLD INC [RGLD]  ........................................8.74  
AGNICO EAGLE MINES [AEM] .................................. 5.95  
GOLDEN STAR RES LTD [GSS] ................................ 5.23  
BARRICK GOLD CP [ABX]  .......................................2.49  
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG] .................................. 1.77  
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU]...............................  1.73  
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG] ............................... 1.65  
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP] .................................... 1.23  
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG [NEM]............................  1.22  


Laggards in PEG Ratio..................................... (ttm, 5yr expected)   
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN]...................................  0.47  
GLAMIS GOLD LMT [GLG] ....................................... 0.57  
GOLDCORP INC [GG] ............................................. 0.62  
HARMONY GOLD MNG A [HMY]...............................  1.10  
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADS [GFI] .................................. 1.15  
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG [NEM] ............................. 1.22  
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP]....................................  1.23  
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG]..............................  1.65  
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] .............................. 1.73  
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG] ................................. 1.77


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

What becomes apparent is that the growth in earnings, from the producers despite the high price, are not keeping apace with the stock price.

This tells us two things;
1...The Producers were caught off balance by the surge in demand.
2...They have not yet caught up demand via increased production.

This is important in that the Producers, the industry experts, and the latest information via their order books did not anticipate the surge in demand.
This suggests that the large surge in demand is of a speculative nature.
With any surge in speculative price, the longer term trend is less stable and less predictable, and subject to very quick changes in sentiment.

The second point is also important in that should production increase to take advantage of the current high prices, supply will increase, thus providing a dampening effect upon the market price.

Leaders in Long-Term Growth Rate......................................... (5 yr)   
ELDORADO GOLD CORP [EGO].............................................  100.00%  
GLAMIS GOLD LMT [GLG] .................................................... 66.00%  
GOLDCORP INC [GG]  ..........................................................54.70%  
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG [NEM]..........................................  50.00%  
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG]  ............................................38.80%  
HARMONY GOLD MNG A [HMY].............................................  34.00%  
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADS [GFI] ............................................... 30.50%  
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN] ................................................ 26.90%  
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG] ................................................ 21.50%  
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] ............................................. 17.40%  


Laggards in Long-Term Growth Rate ........................................(5 yr)   
KINROSS GOLD CP [KGC] ..................................................... 5.00%  
ROYAL GOLD INC [RGLD] ..................................................... 5.00%  
GOLDEN STAR RES LTD [GSS]............................................  10.00%  
BEMA GOLD CP [BGO] ....................................................... 10.00%  
AGNICO EAGLE MINES [AEM] ............................................. 10.00%  
BARRICK GOLD CP [ABX] ................................................... 10.00%  
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP] ................................................ 11.50%  
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] ........................................... 17.40%  
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG]...............................................  21.50%  
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN] ............................................... 26.90%  


Long term growth rates in mature industries, tend to follow economic growth, which of course will vary upon the maturity of the country.
The US growth rate is approximately 3.5%
Lets say China & India, both expanding over the last 2/3 yrs, but expected to slow, lets be generous and say 10%

The absolute laggards in the gold industry are showing 5% growth.
The highfliers, are showing up to 100%
Companies with earnings growing at 15% are considered exceptional growth stocks.

Having established that in all probability the growth has been generated via high price received, and not the usual combination of production + price, we can suggest that prices are far exceeding utility pricing and have entered into speculative or bubble territory.

Leaders in Net Profit Margin ..............................................(mrq)   
TASEKO MINES LTD [TGB] ............................................... 73.30%  
PACIFIC RIM MINING [PMU] .............................................. 70.56%  
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN] .............................................. 50.81%  
ROYAL GOLD INC [RGLD] .................................................. 38.38%  
GOLDEN STAR RES LTD [GSS]..........................................  34.16%  
YAMANA GOLD INC [AUY] ................................................ 30.20%  
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP] ............................................... 29.43%  
GOLDCORP INC [GG].......................................................  27.75%  
GLAMIS GOLD LMT [GLG] ................................................ 21.36%  
LIHIR GOLD LTD ADR [LIHRY] .......................................... 18.67%  


Laggards in Net Profit Margin .............................................(mrq)   
MIRAMAR MINING CP [MNG] .......................................... -251.84%  
ATLAS MINING CO [ALMI.OB] ........................................ -175.56%  
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES I [NG] ...................................... -168.13%  
CRYSTALLEX INTL CP [KRY] ......................................... -147.27%  
AMERICAN PETROLEUM [AMPE.OB]................................  -111.52%  
BEMA GOLD CP [BGO] .................................................. -91.63%  
NEW JERSEY MINING COMPANY [NJMC.OB] ...................... -74.98%  
ELDORADO GOLD CORP [EGO] ....................................... -70.96%  
CANYON RESOURCE NEW [CAU]....................................  -66.88%  
APOLLO GOLD CORP CDA [AGT] ..................................... -66.60% 

Examination of Net Profit margins again suggests abnormal profit margins for a commodity based business. 

High Net Profit margins can be generated by high operating leverage.
However, the industry as a whole is running a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.00
We can assume that on this basis, the net profits are price based.

Leaders in Long-Term Debt/Equity.......................................... (mrq)   
TASEKO MINES LTD [TGB] ..................................................... 0.92  
BEMA GOLD CP [BGO] ........................................................... 0.84  
DESERT MINING [DSRM.OB] ................................................... 0.71  
ABERDENE MINES LTD [ABRM.OB] ........................................... 0.69  
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] ............................................... 0.65  
CRYSTALLEX INTL CP [KRY]..................................................  0.63  
YAMANA GOLD INC [AUY] ..................................................... 0.50  
BARRICK GOLD CP [ABX] ...................................................... 0.46  
CUBIC ENERGY INC [QBIK.OB] ............................................... 0.40  
LEXINGTON RESOURCES [LXRS.OB]........................................  0.35  


Laggards in Long-Term Debt/Equity........................................ (mrq)   
DESERT SUN MINING CO [DEZ] .............................................. 0.01  
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG]...............................................  0.02  
NEW JERSEY MINING COMPANY [NJMC.OB] .............................. 0.04  
GAMMON LAKE RES LTD [GRS] .............................................. 0.05  
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADS [GFI] ................................................ 0.06  
NORTHGATE MINERALS L [NXG] ............................................ 0.08  
HARMONY GOLD MNG A [HMY] .............................................. 0.11  
CANYON RESOURCE NEW [CAU] ............................................ 0.12  
KINROSS GOLD CP [KGC] ..................................................... 0.12  
CAMBIOR INC [CBJ] ............................................................ 0.12


In summary, I suggest that the current price of gold is speculative in nature, and has entered bubble territory. Ultimately, it will burst and fall back to earth
However before that happens, it may very well rise much higher.

Safe to say, should you still want exposure to the gold sector, buying producers is probably not the best way forward.

In the second part of the calculation we shall examine price of gold the commodity, and back into a valuation, and a timeframe for that valuation.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
While your analysis is useful for US-based investments, it does nothing for most readers of this site based in Australia (possibly even NZ).
A major issue with the US equity market compared to ours is the comparatively high PEs, and this trend relates to most industry sectors.
Another issue with your analysis is that had you done it for each of the last 3 years, you may have come to the same conclusion, viz that gold has entered bubble territory.
I have no doubt that at some point in time a huge speculative bubble will burst, and the gold price will revert to historical norms over a period of years, as the commodity cycle simply repeats itself.  
But at this point there are two important questions.  First, what will be the “launching price” as this will approximate the longer term landing price?
Secondly, how far away are we from the “bubble”?
Your statement, "Safe to say, should you still want exposure to the gold sector, buying producers is probably not the best way forward", could well be true for the US market.  It is unlikely to be true for Australian producers that are unhedged and have low cash costs: In other words, those producers already making over US$200/ounce and exposed to continuing high/er prices.
However, the greatest weakness of gross analysis is that it does not tell you where a specific company is at with its mine.  And this is where an understanding of gold mining per se is vital.  For example, a producer may have spent the last 2 years reaching its high value seams (reserves), thereby becoming capable of multiplying many times the average annual output of those prior years.  Or, it may have added new processing equipment or techniques to enable to significantly increase output over prior years but with minimal extra cost per ounce.
There is a multitude of other factors that must be considered when wisely choosing to put money into a gold mining equity, and future gold prices become relevant only to the extent that they may decline and affect your bottom line.
Prudent selection of equities can markedly mitigate potential downside risks.  
I have however drifted from the thread heading, and apologise.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> While your analysis is useful for US-based investments, it does nothing for most readers of this site based in Australia (possibly even NZ).
> A major issue with the US equity market compared to ours is the comparatively high PEs, and this trend relates to most industry sectors.
> Another issue with your analysis is that had you done it for each of the last 3 years, you may have come to the same conclusion, viz that gold has entered bubble territory.





The initial analysis is simply to establish whether the POG has entered the arena of gross speculation. By looking at the general industry I simply wished to establish that the suggestion of a bubble in the POG was reasonable.

As I trade/invest in the US, that is where my interest lies.
However for the POG this fact will not detract overmuch from the second part of the analysis, and the original request which was a "forcast" of a "future" price towards the end of the year.



> I have no doubt that at some point in time a huge speculative bubble will burst, and the gold price will revert to historical norms over a period of years, as the commodity cycle simply repeats itself.
> But at this point there are two important questions. First, what will be the “launching price” as this will approximate the longer term landing price?
> Secondly, how far away are we from the “bubble”?




I would say that the POG is already in bubble territory.
How much higher, how much longer is the focus of part two.



> However, the greatest weakness of gross analysis is that it does not tell you where a specific company is at with its mine. And this is where an understanding of gold mining per se is vital.




For a specific mine, or business, I would analyze the individual company.
While an understanding of gold mining would be useful, an understanding of financial statements is more so. Contrasting the individual within its industry is always illuminating.



> There is a multitude of other factors that must be considered when wisely choosing to put money into a gold mining equity, and future gold prices become relevant only to the extent that they may decline and affect your bottom line.
> Prudent selection of equities can markedly mitigate potential downside risks.
> I have however drifted from the thread heading, and apologise.




As noted, the objective is not to value an individual stock, which is a relatively simple matter, but to place a price *on a highly speculative commodity, that has already entered bubble territory* 

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

With any bubble, there must always be in support, an underlying psychological or emotional justification.

In the 1925 -1929 bull market, the belief in the New Era.
Almost unbelievably, the New Era returned in 1995 - 2000
Gannists would have fun with the dates.
Property bubbles rest on..........property always rises in the long term.

What then is the underpinning psychology for the recurrent boom/bust in gold
It is............"gold is an inflation hedge"
On the surface, as all these emotional justifications must be, it seems reasonable, and thus, if I buy gold at $550, I am making a rational investment decision.

year ..........................................value of one ounce of gold 
2006........................................................$520
2000....................................................... $272  
1995 .......................................................$386  
1990 .......................................................$424  
1985....................................................... $354  
1980 .......................................................$641  
1975....................................................... $151  
1970....................................................... $38  
1965 .......................................................$36  
1960....................................................... $37  
1955....................................................... $35  
1950 .......................................................$40  
1945 .......................................................$37  
1940 .......................................................$35  
1935....................................................... $35  
1930 .......................................................$21  
1925....................................................... $21  
1920....................................................... $21  
1915 .......................................................$21  
1910....................................................... $21  
1905....................................................... $21  
1900....................................................... $21  
1895....................................................... $21  
1890....................................................... $21  
1885....................................................... $21  
1880....................................................... $21  
1875 .......................................................$23  
1870 .......................................................$23  
1865....................................................... $30  
1860....................................................... $21  
1855....................................................... $21  
1850 .......................................................$21  
1845....................................................... $21  
1840....................................................... $21  
1835....................................................... $19  
1830....................................................... $19  
1825....................................................... $19  
1820....................................................... $22  
1815....................................................... $22  
1810 .......................................................$19  
1805....................................................... $19  
1800 .......................................................$19


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

We would now need to look at the data for inflation, over the same time periods.

1901................................................(-2%)
1902................................................6%
1903................................................1%
1904................................................0%
1905................................................1%......5yr..........1.2%

1906................................................3%
1907................................................6%
1908................................................(-4%)
1909................................................8%
1910................................................4%.......5yr.......3.4%

1911................................................(-8%)
1912................................................7%
1913................................................3%
1914................................................1%
1915................................................1%......5yr......0.8%

1916................................................8%
1917................................................17%
1918................................................18%
1919................................................15%
1920................................................16%.......5yr.....14.8%

1921..............................................(-11%)
1922..............................................(-6%)
1923..............................................2%
1924..............................................0%
1925..............................................2%.......5yr.....(-2.6%)


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

So examining the earlier periods, does the data suggest that Gold was an effective hedge in periods of low, moderate & high inflation.
Ignoring for a moment the "reasons" that it may or may not have been.

Gold 5yr Average

1925.............................................. ......... $21 
1920.............................................. ......... $21 
1915 .................................................. .....$21 
1910.............................................. ......... $21 
1905.............................................. ......... $21 


Inflation 5yr Average

1905.......................................................1.2%
1910.......................................................3.4%
1915.......................................................0.8%
1920.......................................................14.8%
1925.......................................................(-2.6%)

I think we can safely suggest that "for whatever reasons" gold was not an inflation hedge in this particular time period.
We shall examine more "relevant" periods to establish the verity, or falsity of our assertion.

jog on
d998


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> property always rises in the long term.




i beg to differ

if u agree that property=land

tokyo land prices have fallen 80% off their highs in 1990. They fell for 15 years straight, until about november 2005.

(sorry for off-topic)


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> i beg to differ
> 
> if u agree that property=land
> 
> tokyo land prices have fallen 80% off their highs in 1990. They fell for 15 years straight, until about november 2005.
> 
> (sorry for off-topic)




Indeed. We also need to look a tad further back, sans the influense of the baby boom.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*nizar* 

I think you need to go back and re-read the original post.



> With any bubble, there must always be in support, an underlying psychological or emotional justification.




And for this psychological support in a bubble........in this case a property bubble; 



> In the 1925 -1929 bull market, the belief in the New Era.
> Almost unbelievably, the New Era returned in 1995 - 2000
> Gannists would have fun with the dates.
> Property bubbles rest on..........property always rises in the long term.




jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

1926 - 1931...........................(-3%)
1932 - 1937...........................(-1%)
1938 - 1943...........................+2.8%
1944 - 1949...........................+6.8%
1950 - 1955...........................+2.6%
1956 - 1961...........................+2.0%
1962 - 1967...........................+1.6%
1968 - 1973...........................+4.4%
1974 - 1979...........................+8.2%
1980 - 1985...........................+7.2%
1986 - 1991...........................+4.0%
1992 - 1997...........................+3.0%
1998 - 2003...........................+2.4%
2004 -............................................


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Inflation 5yr averages

1926 - 1931...........................(-3%)
1932 - 1937...........................(-1%)
1938 - 1943...........................+2.8%
1944 - 1949...........................+6.8%
1950 - 1955...........................+2.6%
1956 - 1961...........................+2.0%
1962 - 1967...........................+1.6%

Gold 5yr averages

1965 .................................................. .....$36 
1960.............................................. ......... $37 
1955.............................................. ......... $35 
1950 .................................................. .....$40 
1945 .................................................. .....$37 
1940 .................................................. .....$35 
1935.............................................. ......... $35 
1930 .................................................. .....$21 
1925.............................................. ......... $21 



> 1955.............................................. ......... $35
> 1950 .................................................. .....$40
> 1945 .................................................. .....$37
> 
> 1944 - 1949...........................+6.8%
> 1950 - 1955...........................+2.6%




Still no evidence of gold reacting, or serving as an inflation hedge.
But, things start to change when gold and the currencies float independantly of one another.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I'm no expert but a simple look at the gold chart over the year tells me that it moved in a $20USD trade range up to August ($420-$440) then a $40USD trade range up to Novemeber ($440-$480) then a $60USD trade range up to January ($480-$540) which would suggest that so long as it holds above $540USD (ish) its nest trade range should be $80USD giving a target price of $620 USD, 

I know this seems overally simplistic, but then I'm a simple person   

So I'd say by April/May it should be reaching $620 USD and once it breaks out strongly above that its next target should be $720USD


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> So in 1971 the last link between Gold and the Dollar had gone, and the result inevitable: In February 1973, the world's currencies "floated". By the end of 1974, Gold had soared from $35 to $195 an ounce.
> On January 1, 1975 it again became "legal" for US citizens to again own gold. The U.S. Treasury in particular and many other Central Banks sold large quantities of gold in anticipation, making massive paper profits in the process. The move depressed the price of gold, which fell to US$103 in eighteen months.
> Gold regained its ($195) December 1974 level by July 1978, hitting subsequently more highs; $250 in February 1979; $300 in July; and soaring from $381 on Nov. 1, 1979 to $850 on Jan. 21, 1980 before crashing and burning for the next 20 years.




Now of course this is where the myth of gold as an inflation hedge was born.
As the currencies floated free from the gold peg, so the financial markets gained another asset class, gold.

That there was once a legitimate correlation between money, and gold, seems simply to have clung on, even though the correlation was broken.
The myth has perpetuated to such a degree, that it is just "common knowledge" currently.


Inflation 5yr averages

1968 - 1973...........................+4.4%
1974 - 1979...........................+8.2%
1980 - 1985...........................+7.2%
1986 - 1991...........................+4.0%
1992 - 1997...........................+3.0%
1998 - 2003...........................+2.4%

Gold Price 5yr averages

2006.............................................. ..........$520
2000.............................................. ......... $272 
1995 .................................................. .....$386 
1990 .................................................. .....$424 
1985.............................................. ......... $354 
1980 .................................................. .....$641 
1975.............................................. ......... $151 
1970.............................................. ......... $38 
1965 .................................................. .....$36 

Looking at the 1975 - 1980 average of $396 for gold
We see the 1974/1979 5yr average for inflation at 8.2%
The 1926 - 2003 average for inflation at 3.15% indicates that this was a highly inflationary period.

Looking at individual years, taking 1980, we find;

Gold = $641
Inflation = 13%
Stock P/E = 9
1 Year Treasury Bill Yield = 14%
20 Year Treasury Bond Yield = 13%

Across all asset classes there are extremes in valuations.
What would a rational investor think?
He should think;

Stocks look cheap, Bonds look fantastic, and are risk free, inflation looks scary, gold looks expensive.

Therefore it comes down to some simple questions, with complex answers.
Will inflation continue to rise?
If the answer is yes, my Bonds will be decimated.
Will stocks provide any protection against inflation. A provisional yes.
Will gold protect me against continued inflation.....yes.

And therein lies the trap.
The protection is based on speculative money, chasing capital gains, as other asset classes are hurt by inflation in the short term as inflation moves away from price stability.

As inflation via monetary policy reduces, and returns to price stability, so the price of gold drops right along with it.

However, looking at the longer term trends, inflation has been an average 3.15% from 1926 to the present day, if gold was TRUELY an inflation hedge, then, gold would possess an intrinsic value, that appreciated through the years as the value of money has atrophied at 3.15% over the last 74years

Taking the S&P500 at a value of 11.96 in 1925 and todays price of  1289.43
We see an appreciation of 6.43% compounded + 5% dividends = 11.43% thus positive after adjusted for inflation = 8.28% compounded

Gold at $21 to $550 = 4.45% at current prices.  Adjusted for inflation, the return = 1.3% compounded.
If we take the price in 2000, then, we are looking at an adjusted return of 0.32% compounded.

In reality, because gold possesses no intrinsic value, and is dependant upon speculative markets for any form of return.
However, during high inflationary periods, when speculative money chases trends, and moves out of other asset classes, the impression is given of gold being an inflation hedge.

Anyway, from that little digression, back to the topic, the future price of gold
Well it will depend upon;
Inflation Rate
Interest Rate
P/E valuations of Stocks
Absence, or availability of other asset classes (Real Estate) which currently seems to be in a bubble of its own.

Therefore we shall examine the fundamentals behind the aforementioned.
jog on
d998


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Now of course this is where the myth of gold as an inflation hedge was born.
> As the currencies floated free from the gold peg, so the financial markets gained another asset class, gold.
> 
> That there was once a legitimate correlation between money, and gold, seems simply to have clung on, even though the correlation was broken.
> The myth has perpetuated to such a degree, that it is just "common knowledge" currently.
> 
> 
> Inflation 5yr averages
> 
> 1968 - 1973...........................+4.4%
> 1974 - 1979...........................+8.2%
> 1980 - 1985...........................+7.2%
> 1986 - 1991...........................+4.0%
> 1992 - 1997...........................+3.0%
> 1998 - 2003...........................+2.4%
> 
> Gold Price 5yr averages
> 
> 2006.............................................. ..........$520
> 2000.............................................. ......... $272
> 1995 .................................................. .....$386
> 1990 .................................................. .....$424
> 1985.............................................. ......... $354
> 1980 .................................................. .....$641
> 1975.............................................. ......... $151
> 1970.............................................. ......... $38
> 1965 .................................................. .....$36
> 
> Looking at the 1975 - 1980 average of $396 for gold
> We see the 1974/1979 5yr average for inflation at 8.2%
> The 1926 - 2003 average for inflation at 3.15% indicates that this was a highly inflationary period.
> 
> Looking at individual years, taking 1980, we find;
> 
> Gold = $641
> Inflation = 13%
> Stock P/E = 9
> 1 Year Treasury Bill Yield = 14%
> 20 Year Treasury Bond Yield = 13%
> 
> Across all asset classes there are extremes in valuations.
> What would a rational investor think?
> He should think;
> 
> Stocks look cheap, Bonds look fantastic, and are risk free, inflation looks scary, gold looks expensive.
> 
> Therefore it comes down to some simple questions, with complex answers.
> Will inflation continue to rise?
> If the answer is yes, my Bonds will be decimated.
> Will stocks provide any protection against inflation. A provisional yes.
> Will gold protect me against continued inflation.....yes.
> 
> And therein lies the trap.
> The protection is based on speculative money, chasing capital gains, as other asset classes are hurt by inflation in the short term as inflation moves away from price stability.
> 
> As inflation via monetary policy reduces, and returns to price stability, so the price of gold drops right along with it.
> 
> However, looking at the longer term trends, inflation has been an average 3.15% from 1926 to the present day, if gold was TRUELY an inflation hedge, then, gold would possess an intrinsic value, that appreciated through the years as the value of money has atrophied at 3.15% over the last 74years
> 
> Taking the S&P500 at a value of 11.96 in 1925 and todays price of  1289.43
> We see an appreciation of 6.43% compounded + 5% dividends = 11.43% thus positive after adjusted for inflation = 8.28% compounded
> 
> Gold at $21 to $550 = 4.45% at current prices.  Adjusted for inflation, the return = 1.3% compounded.
> If we take the price in 2000, then, we are looking at an adjusted return of 0.32% compounded.
> 
> In reality, because gold possesses no intrinsic value, and is dependant upon speculative markets for any form of return.
> However, during high inflationary periods, when speculative money chases trends, and moves out of other asset classes, the impression is given of gold being an inflation hedge.
> 
> Anyway, from that little digression, back to the topic, the future price of gold
> Well it will depend upon;
> Inflation Rate
> Interest Rate
> P/E valuations of Stocks
> Absence, or availability of other asset classes (Real Estate) which currently seems to be in a bubble of its own.
> 
> Therefore we shall examine the fundamentals behind the aforementioned.
> jog on
> d998





My Latin aint that hot nowdays...
What's " Multa renascentur quae iam cecidere, cadentque Quae nunc sunt in honore" mean or more to the point what relevance could it possibly have to POG POS and POO?


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
The monetization of gold and the subsequent "gold peg" under Bretton Woods until 1971 renders most of your analysis redundant.
Through technological improvements the cost of printing $35 in 1933 was possibly greater than in 1971, while the cost of producing an ounce of gold increased markedly in the same period: Yet the gold peg made them equal for all intents and purposes.
Analysts are only now coming to grips with a new paradigm for gold.  It is no longer money, and for only 30 years has it been freely available to the world's wealthiest population.  Meanwhile, in the world's most populous nation, gold is just now becoming available for purchase.
So we are facing physical demand factors that for a large part of the 20th century were denied to populations of various countries.
More importantly, the legacy of thought that existed for almost 50 years (or two generations), that is the "gold peg" view that your paper money could be redeemed for gold, has not yet been swept under the carpet.
It may seem to some of us as irrational now, but there is a view that gold could be monetized again, which would mean that the reserve currency in circulation would need to be valued against above ground gold.
These are some of the "speculative" impulses aside from an “inflation hedge” that drive gold higher.

The most important - and least understood - factor of all, however, remains the reason why Central Banks continue to hold gold.  This is where GATA enters the door, and opens up a provocative train of thought that needs to be appreciated (not necessarily agreed) by all who wish to follow gold more closely.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Crackaton, you asked what's " Multa renascentur quae iam cecidere, cadentque Quae nunc sunt in honore" mean or more to the point what relevance could it possibly have to POG POS and POO?

You asked a relevant question indeed.
To begin, it's a partial quote from Horace's Ars Poetica. The full sentence of the latin quatation can be translated thus:
Many words shall revive, which now have fallen off; and many which are now in esteem shall fall off, if it be the will of custom, in whose power is the decision and right and standard of language.  
Unfortunately, a few words fell off!
That is the exact relevance to POS, POO and POG.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> The monetization of gold and the subsequent "gold peg" under Bretton Woods until 1971 renders most of your analysis redundant.
> Through technological improvements the cost of printing $35 in 1933 was possibly greater than in 1971, while the cost of producing an ounce of gold increased markedly in the same period: Yet the gold peg made them equal for all intents and purposes.




I am quite willing to accept that.
But I have simply been reviewing the historical context to provide an examination of whether gold has provided an inflation hedge, and why people are so convinced that it does.



> Analysts are only now coming to grips with a new paradigm for gold. It is no longer money, and for only 30 years has it been freely available to the world's wealthiest population. Meanwhile, in the world's most populous nation, gold is just now becoming available for purchase.




It is no longer money. True.
And for the majority of that 30 yrs it has been ignored by the general population, as it still is.
Meanwhile in China & India, the current price will exclude 99% of the population, and should it eventually fall to their price range, then they will still ignore it, as it is falling and losing value.



> It may seem to some of us as irrational now, but there is a view that gold could be monetized again, which would mean that the reserve currency in circulation would need to be valued against above ground gold.




In the view of whom?



> The most important - and least understood - factor of all, however, remains the reason why Central Banks continue to hold gold. This is where GATA enters the door, and opens up a provocative train of thought that needs to be appreciated (not necessarily agreed) by all who wish to follow gold more closely.




This is the third time that you have raised the same point.
If it is the most important, and least understood, where is the argument that would elucidate, and or substantiate your assertion?

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Just as an aside, in regards to the gold industry from the producers perspective;

Gold miner Newmont profit falls;

All Reuters NewsNEW YORK (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp. , the world's biggest gold producer, said on Monday that fourth-quarter profit dropped due in part to legal settlements and asset write-downs.

Net earnings fell to $62 million, or 14 cents per share, from $190 million, or 42 cents per share, in the same quarter of 2004, the Denver-based company said. Revenue rose to $1.31 billion from $1.2 billion.

Excluding a range of items, the company reported a profit of 35 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates. Analysts, on average, expected earnings of 34 cents a share on revenue of $1.36 billion.

For 2006, the company forecast consolidated gold sales of 7.98 million ounces at a cash cost of $283 an ounce.

Newmont shares fell 2.8 percent to $56.50 in premarket trading on the Inet electronic trading system.

Newmont's stock rose 13.2 percent during the fourth quarter but underperformed the CBOE Gold Index .GOX, which rose 16.8 percent in the quarter.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

To provide a valuation on gold we shall use some historical figures;

S&P500 @ 8
Inflation @ 13.7%
Gold @ $850.00...................1980

S&P500 @ 15.98
Inflation @ 4%
Gold @ $550.00..................2006

With the low end of the valuations;
P/E @ 42
Inflation @ 3%
Gold @ $272.00................2000

I put the speculative range at $418.88 to $769.00
So, support, you would *hope* to materialize at $418.88 odd, and Resistance to materialize circa $769.00 odd.

Timeframe...................
Between 5yrs and 10yrs
Based purely on secular cycles.

Within that timeframe, the excesses will have worked themselves out of the system, and gold, for this cycle will again be yesterdays news.

jog on
d998


----------



## Wilson

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi Ducati,
If gold has no intrinsic value, why is it under accumulation, world-wide? Do Indians, for example, have this misguided notion ( I think this is what you're saying) that they are taking precautions against inflation as well as saving something of true value? Perhaps 3000 years of 'gold as money' is a mistake and our faith in fiat - now not even a bit of paper, just a blip on a screen -  is justified (as well as faith in Bankers, Politicians & Big Business?)


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Summarising then for ducati:
He puts the speculative range at $418.88 to $769.00
So, support, he would *hope* to materialize at $418.88 odd, and Resistance to materialize circa $769.00 odd.

Timeframe...................
Between 5yrs and 10yrs
Based purely on secular cycles.

At least we got an answer, so waiting another 5 years won't be too hard now!
Of course, what will ducati do if if gold reaches beyond $770 this year, or next (and I firmly believe it will be "next" year into the $800s)?
No doubt he will revise his figures - but that's just speculation.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> At least we got an answer, so waiting another 5 years won't be too hard now!
> Of course, what will ducati do if if gold reaches beyond $770 this year, or next (and I firmly believe it will be "next" year into the $800s)?
> No doubt he will revise his figures - but that's just speculation.




And as is the want with speculators, they are wrong, as often as they are right. You are wrong. The figures are there, and I have no intention of changing them nor defending them. You see they are a speculative range, and as a speculative range they are as likely to be wrong as right.

If you are right in this case, and they do reach $800+ in whatever timeframe, then you will increase your profits and can claim to be a genius.

*Wilson* 



> If gold has no intrinsic value, why is it under accumulation, world-wide?




It is a speculative bubble.
Where it will ultimately end will only be clear in hindsight, that it will end is almost a dead cert



> Do Indians, for example, have this misguided notion ( I think this is what you're saying) that they are taking precautions against inflation as well as saving something of true value?




I am not saying gold is an inflation hedge.
Just the opposite, gold is a resounding failure as an inflation hedge, pathetic.
As to Indians, it is partly a cultural phenomenon.

Historically gold has performed best when real bond yields and money market rates were low or negative, which is now the case in most industrialized nations. Gold is a very small market when compared to Bonds or Stocks.


DEMAND SIDE
Jewelry accounted for about 2950 tons
Central Banks in emerging economies + industry 300 tons
ETF's 300 tons
Coins 130 tons
Hedging reductions 200 tons

SUPPLY SIDE
Mining production 2500 tons
Scrap 850 tons
Official sales limited to 500 tons

Total = deficit ~ 280 tons

So, on that basis, can production be increased?
The answer is I suspect a definitive yes.

On the demand side;
Will ETF's require the same amount of gold? Probably not, demand is falling off
Jewelry demand, may fall off slightly due to the high prices
Inter-bank sales will run a production surplus

Therefore, what we have remaining is the hot money.
Hedge Fund money, rotating in and out of hot sectors, chasing the returns.
They could care less about gold, other than, can we make money here. If the answer is yes, and it may still be, then the speculative price will continue to rise.

Europe however is undervalued currently, and you may well see profit-taking out of the gold sector and into Europe (France & Germany), which will cause a collapse in the speculative price of gold.

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I'd like to introduce a new angle here.

Lets suppose over the next year, some sanity was restored to the world and assets returned to some sort of value...and lets just suppose gold retraced to $300

Let's say we have $50k and the bank is willing to loan us money to buy assets at an LVR of 75%. I don't think interest rate is important for my example, but lets say 7%

We are looking at 3 assets to buy and must choose one. (ignoring transaction costs for the sAKE OF THE EXAMPLE)

1/ An eminently sensible vendor is selling a house for $200,000. We are able to get $270/wk rent a yield of 7% (remember, we are supposing sanity has been restored  )

2/ Blue Chip Shares are trading at an average P/E of 8 and the average grossed up yield is 7%. W are looking at buying a $200k portfolio.

3/ or we can buy 666 oz of gold...yield of course, is 0.

All three have potential for capital gain, even another speculative bubble.

Remembering we are gearing here and its costing us $202 per week to service the debt (not including principle payments)

Which of these investments looks the soundest? Which makes the least sense.

Bearing in mind gold has no utilitarian use for us personally. There is no return, we have to store it somewhere. It can be stolen. In a Mad Max scenario, Max and his mates are going to find out pretty quickly that we are paying for our witchety grubs and wild yams with gold coins, and are likely to have a cache of them somewhere.

A 30/30 Winchester aimed at your forehead can be a pretty convincing way to reveal the whereabouts of same.

I have a few obligatory krugerands. But I'd never gear myself up to buy them.

Intrinsic value?

I'm with Duc. It's a great speculative play based on the "perceptions" that it's a hedge. But no long term security or store of wealth value for me.

IMO

Cheers


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*3/ or we can buy 666 oz of gold...yield of course, is 0.* 

The Sign of Satan


----------



## Wilson

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Ducati,

Perhaps the ‘dead cert end’ of the speculation will be ‘sound money’ based on gold? That will only be after much wailing & nashing of teeth though. Hopefully not your wails nor your teeth..

And yes, the Indians have - according to you -  a misguided notion that  gold represents a) an inflation hedge and b) something of intrinsic value.  It may well be a ‘cultural thing’ and I guess having a culture going back a few thousand years (read the Vedas?) doesn’t count for much? Same with the Chinese, their instinct (a ‘cultural’ thing too?) is that gold is valuable stuff that can’t be fudged, changed to something else with the stroke of a pen or otherwise manipulated. Now that they are off the (true) communist leash, watch 'em go, bro!

The gold market certainly is tiny in comparison with financial (that is lines & rows  of digits on a computer) markets. The ‘smart’ money is already moving into gold (so they tell me as I don’t move in smart money circles).  Then will come the big funds, then the masses.

This will  certainly produce speculation, Ducati, like we’ve never seen before. I don’t know how it will end but I do know on which side of the fence I want to be when it happens. And when it’s over, if I’ve been smart and managed to put away a few gold coins they’ll be worth at least something.  Those digits on a computer screen will be worth, well, probably not a lot.

Waynel, I like your examples. Except that if it was me with $50K  I wouldn’t  gear up to buy anything. I’d buy $50K of gold and sleep like a baby….

PS How do I copy - from an original post - and paste? Tried without success but then I'm technically challenged in more ways than one.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
I am sure you will learn some valuable lessons when you decide to open your mind to other ideas.
In the interim, if you keep deluding yourself that yours is the only path, you will learn very little.
The issue of being right or wrong on the price of gold is of no great consequence to me - I have been right for over 4 years now and know I will inevitably be wrong.
Fortunately the market gives many signals and I can be probably afford to be wrong for a while without suffering any great loss.
Even if I do, there are more important things that concern me and I have the luxury of knowing that money is not one of them.
I have enjoyed seeing you try to come to grips with fundamental analysis of the gold sector and trust your onward journey will be fruitful.
Catch you next year - we wont need 5 years to see your topline figure breached.
All the best.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Yo!

Down nearly $30 since last Friday, from a lower high. I smell a sub $500 correction.

....and down a dollar and a bit in the time it took to type this.:goodnight


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3692


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

interesting to note how gold stocks have fared today. even though the price was down on the weekend, lhg and ncm have rallied nicely today


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				professor_frink said:
			
		

> interesting to note how gold stocks have fared today. even though the price was down on the weekend, lhg and ncm have rallied nicely today




yes unfortunately but not sbm


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> yes unfortunately but not sbm




sorry to hear that nizar. Wasn't just the goldies doing that today. The big oil stocks did it as well


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

GOLD  REPORT ..................


  click here ...........................
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17990
---------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## kevo

*Gold Bugs are right big time!!!*

I'm all over OXR and in love with Owen!! I beleive that the US is broke and that reported inflation in the US is totally bogus. Gold is in a mega bull market, only Silver and Uranium will do better.

Many market commentators are currently bullish on gold, but few as bullish as Cheuvreux, part of Credit Agricole.

The UK-based company recently lifted its 2006 gold price estimate to US$900/oz from US$750/oz in this report. Cheuvreux thinks the gold price could spike to US$2,000/oz, but the reason sounds like a conspiracy theory: that the gold price has been kept low by secret central bank selling designed to preserve confidence in financial markets during periods of uncertainty and keep bond prices up and thereby improve the perception of U.S. monetary policy.

Alan Greenspan referred to the power to manipulate the price of gold. He told the House Banking Committee in July, 1998 that "central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

While the notion that western governments would conspire to suppress the gold price has not gained widespread support, Cheuvreux suggests organizations such as GATA (Gold Anti Trust Association), mad "gold bugs" and conspiracy theorists, according to the financial mainstream, have been right all along.

Gold is a store of value, and Cheuvreux says the metal's value soars when yields on financial assets decline and the risk of crisis increase.

Billions of U.S. dollars do seem to be sparking commodity price inflation and Cheuvreux says that gold will eventually skyrocket due to its safe haven status. Sprott Asset Management agrees. "Start hoarding" might turn out to be very good advice.

KEVO


----------



## kgee

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Check out clive maunds charts for some ta

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund032206.html

I was just thinking of buying some shares in BMO but might wait


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kgee said:
			
		

> Check out clive maunds charts for some ta
> 
> http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund032206.html
> 
> I was just thinking of buying some shares in BMO but might wait




Wonder if he'll change his view now that gold appears to have broken that downtrend line starting at the all time high? Very steep climb though as he notes in relation to the ma's.

Does anyone know where to get free daily online charts for gold continuous futures?? I keep having to switch between contracts on other sites (eg futuresource) and some don't show open interest (kitco). Thanks in advance.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Does anyone know where to get free daily online charts for gold continuous futures?? I keep having to switch between contracts on other sites (eg futuresource) and some don't show open interest (kitco). Thanks in advance.




Ok, answered my question thanks to that link by Kgee, sure I'd been to that site before but didn't notice the charts.

Here's a nice simple bar chart, note the increasing volume and higher swing patterns. So is this the start of the next powerful rally we were looking for?? 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Yes Rich hope so, $600US just around the corner?


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

March is always a down month and POG/POS and POO have held their heads high. Looks like the market is stable for another year!!


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Crack
Does that mean you see it ranging in a narrow band for 12 months?


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

$575 just been smashed through and silver is looking to $11.50 after just breaching $11.
It's all happening in precious metals.
Was there some action in uranium I missed yesterday?


----------



## Porper

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> $575 just been smashed through and silver is looking to $11.50 after just breaching $11.
> It's all happening in precious metals.
> Was there some action in uranium I missed yesterday?




I am not sure how so many people got negative on Gold, probably because it stopped going straight up for a while.I have bought on previous pull backs and done well.When this cycle stops I will stop looking through my rose coloured spectacles, until then I will keep buying junior Goldies.

The charts look good to me


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Just hit $580 mark on my screen.
Is this going to be $600 soon?


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				powerkoala said:
			
		

> Just hit $580 mark on my screen.
> Is this going to be $600 soon?



Yep, the number's up!
There will be a retrace, but blue sky begets more blue sky as the once impervious $575 has now been trashed.
Typically these sharp moves run short but strong.
But the bottom line will see $575 as support in the near term, with $625 my primary upleg target.


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Yep, pretty happy that it has broken through previous highs,


All looking good to me.


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

$583.90.... and keep going.....


----------



## Porper

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				powerkoala said:
			
		

> $583.90.... and keep going.....




Well, Gold should have a push towards the $600 mark tonight I would think, and to think last week people were talking about $500 revisited.

It is nerve racking as it seems very easy to make money at the moment, far too easy infact.Maybe some of the more senior members who have done the rounds can give us an insight as to what it was like before the last big crash (1987).It shouldn't affect Gold too much but of course if we do have a big correction then Gold stocks will still slide.

The good thing about CFD's (one of them) is that we can set guaranteed stop losses, not something I do but I am looking towards doing this, especially on the more volatile stocks.

In the meantime let's hope Gold can get above $600. and worry about the next step then.


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Porper said:
			
		

> Well, Gold should have a push towards the $600 mark tonight I would think, and to think last week people were talking about $500 revisited.
> 
> It is nerve racking as it seems very easy to make money at the moment, far too easy infact.Maybe some of the more senior members who have done the rounds can give us an insight as to what it was like before the last big crash (1987).It shouldn't affect Gold too much but of course if we do have a big correction then Gold stocks will still slide.
> 
> The good thing about CFD's (one of them) is that we can set guaranteed stop losses, not something I do but I am looking towards doing this, especially on the more volatile stocks.
> 
> In the meantime let's hope Gold can get above $600. and worry about the next step then.





I reckon this a bit of steam left in the old boiler yet.


----------



## Milk Man

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Porper, I dont think you can get guaranteed stops on the more volatile ones generally (someone correct me if im wrong). I think theres a clause about company actions voiding any guaranteed stops too.


----------



## Porper

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Milk Man said:
			
		

> Porper, I dont think you can get guaranteed stops on the more volatile ones generally (someone correct me if im wrong). I think theres a clause about company actions voiding any guaranteed stops too.




You are correct Milk man, on some stocks you can't get guaranteed stops, but actually it isn't many.I use IG Markets so can only speak about them.They seem pretty good on that score.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

DING DING DING DING!!!!!

June futs > 600


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi Wayne,

I assume CBOT is Chicago Board of Trade.

How does this square with the commex GC06M (June 06) contract which only made a little over $594? What gives?

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=738032

Edit: Oops, that was yesterdays I was looking at of course...


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Hi Wayne,
> 
> I assume CBOT is Chicago Board of Trade.
> 
> How does this square with the commex GC06M (June 06) contract which only made a little over $594? What gives?
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=738032
> 
> Edit: Oops, that was yesterdays I was looking at of course...




Yes its the 100oz CBOT contract, same size as comex and fully electronic... ticker ZGM06

here's a more up to date source for GC (M06)

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GCM06&o=&a=V:15&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=bar&st=


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I'm no expert but a simple look at the gold chart over the year tells me that it moved in a $20USD trade range up to August ($420-$440) then a $40USD trade range up to Novemeber ($440-$480) then a $60USD trade range up to January ($480-$540) which would suggest that so long as it holds above $540USD (ish) its nest trade range should be $80USD giving a target price of $620 USD,
> 
> I know this seems overally simplistic, but then I'm a simple person
> 
> So I'd say by April/May it should be reaching $620 USD and once it breaks out strongly above that its next target should be $720USD





I posted that on the 27th of Feb, its nice to be simple!

Also I think gold will see alot of jewellry type buying, ie actual consumption, 

Indians (in particular) as well as Chinese and Middle Easterns are big big fans of gold, and its very interesting to note that China is the worlds fastest growing economy with India is set to tack over from 2007/2008 and well with oil @ $70 us a bbl the middle east is rolling in it,

So as the avg wealth of poeple in China and India grows I think we will see alot more consumption demand for gold!


Bring on the Bling!


----------



## JustaReader

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold it seems would settle above the USD600 mark by the end of April, this is given. Question is where is it headed? Will the chinese diversify into gold for reserves?


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				JustaReader said:
			
		

> Will the chinese diversify into gold for reserves?




YES

I read also Saudi and U.A.E will diversify their reserves into the Euro...

Remember CHina hold 75% of their total reserves in US dollars (thats about $500billion), when the start selling it, US dollar will PLUMMET, and GOLD by definition goes up, ie. requires more us dollars to buy an ounce....

ANd then if Japan, and Russia (together much more than $1trillion) follow suit, oh no... !   

Warren Buffet predicted US dollar would fall and he was bullish on the pound, didnt quite work out last year, he lost more than $1billion, but most economists now agree he wasnt wrong, just early...

Interesting 2 see what happens..

UAE, Saudi considering to move reserves out of dollar

A number of Middle Eastern central banks said on Tuesday they would seek to switch reserves from the US greenback to euros.

Regional FX 
Wednesday, March 22, 2006 
Washington
http://www.middleeastforex.com/index.php?section=147

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. 

The United Arab Emirates said it was considering moving one-tenth of its dollar reserves to the euro, while the governor of the Saudi Arabian central bank condemned the decision by the United States to force Dubai Ports World to transfer its ownership to a ‘US entity,’ the UK Independent reported.

“Is it protectionism or discrimination? Is it okay for US companies to buy everywhere but it is not okay for other companies to buy the US?” said Hamad Saud Al Sayyari, the governor of the Saudi Arabian monetary authority.

The head of the United Arab Emirates central bank, Sultan Nasser Al Suweidi, said the bank was considering converting 10 per cent of its reserves from dollars to euros.

“They are contravening their own principles,” said Al Suweidi. “Investors are going to take this into consideration (and) will look at investment opportunities through new binoculars.”

The Commercial Bank of Syria has already switched the state’s foreign currency transactions from dollars to euros, Duraid Durgham head of the state-owned bank said. The decision by the bank of Syria follows the announcement by the White House calling on all US financial institutions to end correspondent accounts with Syria due to money-laundering concerns.

Syria’s Finance Minister Mohammad Al Hussein said: “Syria affirms that this decision and its timing are fundamentally political.”-Khaleej Times Online


The whole world knows the USD is on the nose, but China et al. know it's not an easy trap to extricate yourself from. 


China should tap FX reserves to buy gold - banker
Reuters
Beijing, China
Monday, March 27, 2006
http://today.reuters.com/investing/F...type=bondsNews
&storyID=uri:2006-03-27T022935Z_01_PEK157569_RTRIDST_0_
ECONOMY-CHINA-RESERVES.XML

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

China should use part of its fast-growing foreign exchange reserves to buy gold as it seeks to adjust the asset mix to hedge against risk, a Bank of China official was quoted on Monday as saying.

Analysts say China has been gradually diversifying away from the dollar -- although fears of a collapse in the U.S. currency will prevent any dramatic shift. Chinese officials have denied reports they plan to sell current dollar assets in the reserves.

"China should appropriately reduce the proportion of dollars in its foreign exchange reserves while increasing the proportion of currencies such as the euro," the Financial News quoted Wang Yuanlong, a director at Bank of China's Australian operations, as saying.

"We can use part of the foreign exchange reserves to buy gold, which would help make the reserves more diversified and help guarantee and increase their value," said Wang, former economist at Bank of China, the country's largest foreign exchange bank.

China's foreign exchange reserves swelled 34 percent in 2005 to a record $818.9 billion, but the central bank has not disclosed the composition.

Last month, state media quoted Wang as saying China should ideally hold between $300 billion and $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

China has been a big buyer of U.S. government bonds, helping to finance a heavy U.S. current-account deficit and to keep American interest rates low. Investors watch closely for any sign that Beijing might shift the government's investment mix.

Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier this month that China would adjust the mix of its reserves in light of global market conditions. In doing so, China's criteria would be safety, liquidity and profitability, in that order.

China's currency reserves have soared in recent years as the central bank, in order to hold down the yuan, bought most of the dollars generated by a growing trade surplus, inflow of foreign direct investment and speculative capital.

The fast-growing foreign exchange holdings signal persistent upward pressure on the yuan, despite China's landmark 2.1 percent revaluation of the currency in July, analysts say


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I always shudder when I hear Bill Mclaren's name he reminds of the dementors in the Harry Potter books. I start to shake when I read his reports here is why.



"We have seen how the market previously exhausted into the last high with three ascending trendlines on the daily chart and moved into a consolidation.  If we view this same pattern of trend on the weekly chart rather than the daily basis you can see the market is now started the third ascending trendline on a longer-term basis due to the perspective of the weekly chart.  We can assume since this is the third ascending trendline on the weekly chart this move up is the final leg up and a failure of this leg could end the bull campaign. 


Also understanding that all highs and lows are exact proportions of previous moves and those portions are eighths and thirds. You can see the last correction was only a  ¼ retracement of the entire move up.  This is a small retracement and keeps the trend in a strong position and should allow for at least a  ¼ extension of that range up to 628 June contract. Best time for top is May 5th or June 8th and the June date would obviously show higher prices.  We don’t want to see gold now drop back below the point it just broke out from or the up trend will become at risk.  

So when this leg up ends, it should end the entire bull campaign."


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

brewallabi
If I am right, then gold is now entering a phase (since late last year) where its pace of advance will be sharply higher than the preceding 4 years.
Charts are quite useless on gold, and analysts that are not gold specialists keep reading technical indicators that, frankly, have little relevance to the gold market - apart from a general consensus that overbought lightens the increases or gives a slight retrace, and oversold generates the opposite. 
Many market commentators continue to say that US interest rate increases will be bad for POG: Yet the greatest gains have occurred when interest rates have risen every month for several years.
The factors that give rise to gold going higher are strengthening, not weakening.
McLaren will be proven to be as wrong as many before him who have not understood the intracacies of the gold market.
As a very quick aside, if you consider there to be a strong link between POO and POG, then POG at $700 by August is on the cards.


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> brewallabi
> If I am right, then gold is now entering a phase (since late last year) where its pace of advance will be sharply higher than the preceding 4 years.
> Charts are quite useless on gold, and analysts that are not gold specialists keep reading technical indicators that, frankly, have little relevance to the gold market - apart from a general consensus that overbought lightens the increases or gives a slight retrace, and oversold generates the opposite.
> Many market commentators continue to say that US interest rate increases will be bad for POG: Yet the greatest gains have occurred when interest rates have risen every month for several years.
> The factors that give rise to gold going higher are strengthening, not weakening.
> McLaren will be proven to be as wrong as many before him who have not understood the intracacies of the gold market.
> As a very quick aside, if you consider there to be a strong link between POO and POG, then POG at $700 by August is on the cards.




And if you consider the value of gold compared to its previous highs of when I was a child then $2k+ is on the cards. I don't necessarily agree with Bill Mclaren (he is not someone who gets it wrong usually) but I shivered when I read his daily report. I do agree that sometimes charts are meaninless on some certain commodities and stocks. My belief of this is, there is a whole heap of fact that will continue to drive the POG beyond its current highs these have been mentioned previously on this site and many others. I am not holding anything but gold and selected resource stocks currently and can't be bothered trading too much at the momment as I feel the gains to be made in holding gold and zinc stocks this year far outweigh the effort in trading. I hope that Mclaren is totally wrong but he is no fool and I do feel he is correct in prredicting a correction in the All Ords next week hence I have exited all but a few selected stocks. I will no doubt pick up some resources again far cheaper then now.


----------



## JustaReader

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Lot of static about consolidation in the sector. Any of you hearing anything? 

Anyone here agrees LHG is a good take-over target (reported on AFR)? 

I got out of LHG but me thinks this is gonna be an interesting punt! Game anyone?


----------



## chicken

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				JustaReader said:
			
		

> Lot of static about consolidation in the sector. Any of you hearing anything?
> 
> Anyone here agrees LHG is a good take-over target (reported on AFR)?
> 
> I got out of LHG but me thinks this is gonna be an interesting punt! Game anyone?



You know I have said this before.....any PNG company where the PNG Goverment holds SHARES will never be a takeover target...the PNG Goverment does NOT SELL THEIR SHARES as they would lose control...so ANY suggestion of takeover is NOT POSSIBLE...the Goverment of PNG DOES NOT SELL THEIR NATURAL ASSETS as the landownership is different to Australia.....so LHG will NEVER be taken over as it is a PNG company....


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Chicken
I tend to agree, but free markets do strange things.
Of the gold producers that will do well, I can't think of anything better than LHG and OXR.
Although OXR is unhedged, LHG will knock out 3 times the quantity of OXR of which over 460koz is delivered to spot: That is 460,000ozs multiplied by AU$400 to represent the profit margin as gross cash costs are about AU$400 and the present gold price a shade over AU$800.  Unfortunately LHG negotiated terrible hedge prices on its forward sales so the remaining 207koz  (based on LHG's expected 670koz this year) have been sold at about AU$470, which is better than a loss, but not by much!
Fortunately LHG's hedge position improves slightly in the next 2 years, before peaking at 240kozs in each of 2009 and 2010 - so lets's hope that it's restructured beforehand.


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Anyone know much about these guys?  www.m4.cwa.net.au


----------



## sam76

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Anyone noticed spot gold and silver?
604.40  (up $8.10) and 13.23 (+.34) respectively!


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Nice call Sam
Moving higher still.
A very interesting ploy from the Asian markets.
What will Europe and the US do when they see the jump has been made.
Some short positions ready for the crunch?


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> Anyone know much about these guys?  www.m4.cwa.net.au




Hi Crackaton,
I did have a look at them a few months ago when they were placing lots of ads in the media, there is another thread on Commodity Warrants here on ASF, my experience with warrants is that they are generally too expensive, maybe you can post more there to get some feedback from clients. IMO I'd get more leverage and cheaper entries with stocks (via options or ASX listed warrants) or CFD's (if CFD's appeal to you). Coffee and soft commodities may be hard to gain exposure to unless you try futures.


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

$650 here gold comes


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I'm no expert but a simple look at the gold chart over the year tells me that it moved in a $20USD trade range up to August ($420-$440) then a $40USD trade range up to Novemeber ($440-$480) then a $60USD trade range up to January ($480-$540) which would suggest that so long as it holds above $540USD (ish) its nest trade range should be $80USD giving a target price of $620 USD,
> 
> I know this seems overally simplistic, but then I'm a simple person
> 
> So I'd say by April/May it should be reaching $620 USD and once it breaks out strongly above that its next target should be $720USD






Keeping to my very simple theory, Gold has now hit my upper range of $620, which means a new (now $100) range has begun being $620 - $720,

I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

last sale was at 640.80 

and silver 14.67


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,




Looks like you got the $615-$620 wrong, but the $720, looks like you might have that one right.
Gold currently $640.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



wayneL 9th-March-2006 said:


> Yo!
> Down nearly $30 since last Friday, from a lower high. I smell a sub $500 correction.



Yo!
Wayne
Lets try for a $600 correction
Nah
Make it $700 - don't like downside surprises!


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

There is a bear out there, anyone seen him?


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> There is a bear out there, anyone seen him?



he's hiding in his cave after losing a fight with a very mean and nasty bull. He'll recover and get his revenge one day but!


----------



## MalteseBull

*Rogers Says Gold to Reach $1,000 as Commodities Soar (Update2)*

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, the former George Soros partner who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, said the boom in energy and raw material prices will endure, driving gold to a record $1,000 an ounce.

``The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years,'' Rogers, 63, said in an interview. So if history is any guide, ``they've got a long way to go.''

Prices of crude oil, copper and zinc are at records as speculators and hedge funds seek investments delivering greater returns than stocks and bonds. Global supplies have been curbed by lack of investment and output disruptions, making it harder to meet demand led by China, the world's fastest growing major economy. The Goldman Sachs index of 24 commodities reached an all-time high yesterday.

``Supply and demand is terribly out of balance for nearly all commodities right now,'' Rogers said in Singapore April 17. ``This is not a bubble.''

Bullion for immediate delivery reached a 25-year high of $624.80 an ounce today, still below an all-time peak of $850 for spot gold in 1980. Crude oil rose to a record $71.60 a barrel in New York yesterday and copper gained the most in nine years.

Price `Attainable'

``Gold at $1,000 is attainable, but to achieve it we'll have to see a further deterioration in the macro-economic environment leading to a decline in the dollar,'' said Hong Kong-based Alastair McIntyre, head of marketing at ScotiaMocatta, the bullion unit of the Bank of Nova Scotia.

``Jim Rogers is a respected figure as he saw the move in commodity prices before it happened,'' he said by phone today.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has increased 13 percent this year, compared with a 4.8 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Benchmark U.S. Treasuries have lost about 1.6 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.

``Nearly everything makes a new all-time high in a bull market,'' said Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with Soros in the 1970s. He didn't predict when gold would reach $1,000 an ounce. The precious metal traded at $623.10 an ounce at 1:45 p.m. Singapore time today.

China's booming economy is fueling demand for energy and raw materials needed for factories, homes and cars. The nation, home to 1.3 billion people, grew 10.2 percent in the first quarter, up from 9.9 percent in the previous three months. China is the world's biggest consumer of steel, copper and zinc and the second-largest user of energy.

Copper Gains

Copper prices in Shanghai have gained 88 percent in the past year to a record on expectations of increased demand. Gold prices in India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, have increased about 35 percent in the past year.

Lack of investment in new supplies of commodities is driving up prices.

``Nobody has discovered a major oilfield in over 35 years. All the major oilfields are in decline,'' said Rogers. ``Unless someone does something quickly, the price of oil is going to go a lot higher over the next decade.''

He depicted a similar scenario for metals. ``Nobody has opened any major mines anywhere in the world for many years and it takes a long time to bring new mines on stream,'' he said. ``All the old mines are in the process of being depleted and demand is continuing to grow.''

Farm Commodities

Agricultural commodities may offer new investment opportunities. ``That's where prices have moved least.'' Cotton prices are more than 50 percent below their all-time high; soybeans are 60 percent below their peak and sugar 80 percent, Rogers said. ``These agricultural commodities are very cheap on any historical basis,'' he said.

Rogers, who lives in New York, traveled through China by motorcycle and car as part of trips around the world to pick up investment ideas. The journeys culminated in the books ``Investment Biker'' and ``Adventure Capitalist.'' Rogers also wrote the book ``Hot Commodities.''

The commodity index fund he started in late 1998 has more than tripled.


----------



## nizar

*Re: Rogers Says Gold to Reach $1,000 as Commodities Soar (Update2)*

Below is the key point to every1 out there that thinks commodities will come crashing down...

Some people say its different this time, but ITS NOT, this boom, like those previously will last btw 15-23yrs...

Every correction is a chance to top up...

*``The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years,'' Rogers, 63, said in an interview. So if history is any guide, ``they've got a long way to go.''*


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Ducati
Test your memory banks if you dare.


rederob 25th-February-2006 said:


> ducati
> I have a strong view that gold's next upleg will be relatively swift and strong and carry the gold price decisively over $600 before end June this year, and that further uplegs will see it at/near/over $700 by year's end.



So that's one forecast down.
The $700 figure is presently a mere $55 away as I write.
I believe I said that $800 POG would be seen in 2007, although at the rate of present incline, that number is in jeopardy this year.
Re-reading your analysis of gold was interesting.  If you claim to hang your hat on fundamental analysis you you would do well to understand more about the practice of mining and less about the chart of accounts when it comes to the commodity sector.
I think I should end this post with a personal "gloat", just so ducati can tell everyone how these can't be believed because..........
Try 45,000 OXR shares at an average entry price of $1.27


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Keeping to my very simple theory, Gold has now hit my upper range of $620, which means a new (now $100) range has begun being $620 - $720,
> 
> I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,





Hmmm gold dropped below $615, I suppose that as in the previous range $540 was my base an it dipped a few % below that in that range, given that $620 is my base 2% below is around $608, so well its still within my range, 

I would be extremely worried if it fell below $610 for a sustained period,
So long as it stays $615 - $620 for a bit my range trade up to $720 is still in tact


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I would be extremely worried if it fell below $610 for a sustained period,
> So long as it stays $615 - $620 for a bit my range trade up to $720 is still in tact



Young_Trader
Don't worry too much about the present numbers.
Gold remains in its annual "doldrums" so can meander a bit.
The recent sharp uspside was usual for this early part of the year, as we look for strong offtake to carry markets higher, and that is always in the last half.
If gold simply sat at the presnt price for a few more months (which it will not) then we are still looking at a plus$700 well before year's end and a chance $800 will be taken out.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 

Apologies, only just saw this post today;



> Ducati
> Test your memory banks if you dare.
> 
> Quote:
> Originally Posted by rederob 25th-February-2006, 03:53 PM
> ducati
> I have a strong view that gold's next upleg will be relatively swift and strong and carry the gold price decisively over $600 before end June this year, and that further uplegs will see it at/near/over $700 by year's end.
> 
> 
> 
> So that's one forecast down.
> The $700 figure is presently a mere $55 away as I write.
> I believe I said that $800 POG would be seen in 2007, although at the rate of present incline, that number is in jeopardy this year.
> Re-reading your analysis of gold was interesting. If you claim to hang your hat on fundamental analysis you you would do well to understand more about the practice of mining and less about the chart of accounts when it comes to the commodity sector.
> I think I should end this post with a personal "gloat", just so ducati can tell everyone how these can't be believed because..........
> Try 45,000 OXR shares at an average entry price of $1.27




If I remember correctly, my assertion was that gold does not possess an *intrinsic value* . This I still stand behind. Speculation can take a price of an asset almost anywhere, and speculation is rampant in gold.

A large component of speculation in gold is/was supported via the Yen carry trade, which will come to an end as the BOJ ends the policy of liquidity.
April/May are the *marriage* months in India/Asia, and they are actually huge buyers of gold (larger than I realized).

This of course can be interpreted in two ways;
One, that when this years demand is satisfied, prices drop back, or two, it provides a *technical* signal for speculators to jump long.

My range calculation was approximately $400+ to $720 odd.
I see nothing currently to change my view.

As regards investing in the shares of gold stocks (producers) this strategy is fraught with additional difficulties. The reason is of course the gold ETF. This makes it very easy to speculate or invest, directly in gold itself.
Once, unless you traded gold futures, you had to gain exposure via the producers, I believe that many producers are lagging the moves in gold quite substantially and this could be the reason why.

As regards knowledge of *mining* over knowledge of *accounting* well I know exactly which one will return consistently safe excess returns, and it certainly doesn't rely on breaking a fingernail.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati

I sincerely appreciate your reply.
Thank you.

I respect our differing positions and agree that the commodity sector is neither for the faint hearted nor fundamentally illiterate.

All market trading carries risk: That is a given.  My position is that if one has a reasonable understanding of the risk, and a very good understanding of the probabilities surrounding one's investments in that market, the risk is worth taking.

Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG.  My protfolio of CHESS holdings is below (note that I hold 50k CWT for yield):


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG. My protfolio of CHESS holdings is below (note that I hold 50k CWT for yield):




Well you are a gold bull, no question. However I suspect you were also a gold bull while the majority were gold bears, thus you have a comfortable cushion built into your positions.

For those just jumping onto the bandwagon due to *technical* studies, the volatility will play havoc with many of their positions.

jog on
d998


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG.




Don't regard OXR as a gold stock now, on my simple cals 
gold will produce $30million of OXR profit this year
zinc $310million
copper $250million

Gold will be about 5% of OXR profits, also gold was the poor performer of the OXR quarterly with costs up and grades down.
This will probably improve but still stay behind copper and zinc revenues


----------



## brerwallabi

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

The Indians have been avoiding buying gold as per this article but demand is not decreasing. Marriage season is almost over in India will the Indians replace their stocks now before gold goes $700 plus? It could be a busy few weeks again as some believe we have already had the gold correction on the way to $700, this is the consolidation that has occurred of recent months.

Gold as anchor
Ruchi Ahuja / New Delhi April 14, 2006
GOLD: The metal’s price is soaring worldwide, even as hoards begin trumbling out of closets in India

All that is gold does not glitter. Ask jewellers. The glitter is missing from their cash boxes, despite the beginning of the wedding season, with fresh gold buying down 30-35 per cent.

How come? It’s a rare occurrence. People, with a penchant for gold buying ahead of marriages, are using their hidden hoards of the metal instead of buying expensive new stock.

Coins, biscuits, old jewellery, even bars ”” they’re emerging from secret lockaways to be molten and reshaped into new jewellery. In a country where tradition runs deep and some memories of asset-losses on account of financial chaos run even deeper, gold serves as a treasured “store of value”.

“Overall, more hoarded gold is expected to come out this season,” says T Gnansekar, an independent analyst.

Look at the figures. Recorded Mumbai demand is down to 500-600 kg per day from a normal 800-900 kg around this time of the year, according to a local trader.

“Following the sudden spike in prices overseas, domestic demand has seen a decline,” says Suresh Hundia, director of Hundia Exports, and former president of Bombay Bullion Association (BBA).

But the gold jewellery craze is not exactly dipping, it seems (even though diamonds are gaining share among the younger lot). Domestic gold prices are touching new all-time highs almost every second day, in tandem with multi-year highs overseas.

Domestic gold saw a high of Rs 8,770 per 10 gm earlier this week in Mumbai, as overseas spot vaulted the psychological mark of $600 per troy ounce to touch a new 25-year high.

“A small correction can be seen, but it will only support fresh buying and thus, further price rise. Overseas spot is expected to touch $620-a-troy-ounce level, and the domestic price, Rs 9,100 per 10 gm,” says Prithviraj Kotheri, a Mumbai-based trader.

If that’s not much higher than current levels, according to Hundia, it’s because current stock levels are “comfortable”.

But the global scenario could change swiftly. The possibility of gold going even higher is outlined by GFMS’s Gold Survey 2006, which predicts an investment-driven bull run.

Says GFMS’s head Philip Klapwijk, “Levels safely over $600 are now in our sights and further hefty gains over the next year or two are quite possible ”” in the right circumstances, even the 1980 high of $850 could be overtaken.”

An interesting point, however, is that the Indian gold price has been converging with the international price. “The differential is down to Rs 34 per 100 gm today compared with Rs 60 per 100 gm a month ago,” says V. Sivaramakrishnan, executive director of Dubai-based Kombench DMCC.

One plausible reason is that the supplies are from local sources, so the “import premium” is in decline as India’s own hoarded gold tumbles out.

The bigger point is that gold in the modern age is not very mobile compared to other assets. Most of the gold in India stays put, and is hard to put to “flight”. Moreover, “Indians cannot do without gold” according to Harmesh Arora, a Mumbai-based bullion wholesaler and former vice-president of BBA. So gold’s stability, by and large, is assured.

Consumption demand is likely to stay stable too; the marriage season in the country began April 12 and the auspicious occasion of Akshayatritiya, which sees many gold-laden marriages, is on April 30.

What’s more, hoarded stocks will run thin at some point. So traders expect demand to go back to earlier levels.

“India will consume about 1,000 tonnes of yellow metal this year, compared with 850 tonnes last year,” predicts Asheesh Majumdar, chief general manager, MMTC. Investment demand will lead the figures, he adds.

The metal that John Maynard Keynes thought so lowly of could well turn in a surprise ”” as a rational bet.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> Gold, silver finish week with a sparkle
> Gold closes above $654 on weakened dollar, while silver surges more than a dollar on the launch of a new ETF fund.
> April 28, 2006: 2:00 PM EDT
> 
> 
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold futures in New York shot to a 25-year high to close above $654 on Friday, buoyed by a falling dollar and a pop in silver triggered by the launch of the first silver-backed security, dealers said.
> 
> Gold jumped 2.8 percent and silver surged 4 percent during the session as players built positions in the precious metals ahead of the weekend. Higher oil prices and tensions over Iran's nuclear capabilities also fueled the advance.




...story at http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/28/markets/gold_high.reut/


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob 21st-April-2006 10:11 PM said:
			
		

> If gold simply sat at the present price for a few more months (which it will not) then we are still looking at a plus$700 well before year's end and a chance $800 will be taken out.



It's important to adjust future forecasts in the light of changing circumstances.
But I think in this case the probabilities are just a lot higher and the time frames too short.
Looks like $700 by mid year and a chance that $900 will be taken out.
Gold has lagged base metal rises in percentage terms in the past year and if it plays "catch up" then $800 is likely in the last quarter, with a late tilt at $900 running into Xmas.
There is always the "ducati" factor to consider, and one can always fall off one's bike!


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> "Iran continues to provoke conflict and the gold price is reflecting that sense of uneasiness," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com. "Iran knows they have leverage here, especially with oil above $70 and the U.S. dollar becoming ever so vulnerable." So "all indications are that the geopolitical tensions will continue to support gold at this juncture, with the breakdown in the U.S. dollar adding even more ammo to the run," he said. The greenback dropped to an 11-month low against the euro Friday, and a three-month low against Japan's yen. See Currencies. *The per-ounce price of $700 is now achievable in May, with gold likely continuing to find great support on the downside around $600, Spina said.*




If u think gold is firing now, wait until USD falls and china dumps it and buys gold, this move has been highly anticipated by many for months as chinese reserves of US875billion are 75% in the US dollar and treasury notes, which have fallen by about 3% in the past year while (USD has appreciated somewhat) gold is up by about 40%....

UAE and Saudi banks will diversify their reserves into much less volatile currency, the Euro, and USD will tumble...

THe balance of article: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Metals+Stocks&siteid=mktw&dist=

Unhedged producers definately the way to go...



> China’s central bank prints yuan in exchange for foreign currency obtained from foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and speculative hot money, and amassed a treasure chest of $875.1 billion of foreign currency reserves in March. *Gold dealers expect Beijing to eventually swap depreciating US bonds into gold. Beijing holds 19 million ounces of gold, which only represents 1.1% of its reserves. When asked about a possible shift from the US dollar, People's Bank of China chief Zhou Xiaochuan said on April 22nd, "I think China is among the best in managing our foreign exchange reserves. We get good returns in safe, liquid assets. We can adjust very quickly."* But gold is up 45% while 10-year US Treasury notes have lost 3.2% in the past year, and according to the latest data, Beijing has not yet moved!




http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dorsch/apr242006.html

ALso from the same article:



> Surging Chinese credit growth, a widening trade surplus and double-digit economic expansion, is lending support to explosive Chinese demand for minerals from abroad. China is the world's largest customer for copper, and its demand grew 9% last year, consuming 22% of the world's supply. *China became a net importer of zinc for the first time in 2005, when it imported 620,816 tons of zinc, equal to about 6% of world demand, as its steel production jumped 25 percent*. Both metals have gone parabolic, with Beijing caught in a supply squeeze.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*  Interesting Video - *
 Titled :
  What The Price  Gold is  Telling  Us ...........

Here's  the  Link

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul319.html 

------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> *  Interesting Video - *
> Titled :
> What The Price  Gold is  Telling  Us ...........
> 
> Here's  the  Link
> 
> http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul319.html
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------




Howdy Markets? How's it going over there? Hope all is well.
Thanks for the links, good stuff.
Looks like next stop for Gold is 700!! I wouldn't have believed that a few months ago- "a trend continues in force until...."


----------



## noirua

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Dr Marc Faber's views have often been proved correct, this one has a " view with caution " warning: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1037+37843,00.html


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

An article on some major de-hedging, if only Newcrest NCM had the same idea. http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/292604.htm


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> Barrick, the world’s largest gold producer since taking over Placer Dome, said at the release of its first quarter results it had reduced the Placer Dome hedge position by 5.7 million oz at a cost of $1.2bn as of May 03.
> 
> "The impact of closing out 5.7 million oz of gold hedges is to increase future gold revenues, as we forecast gold prices going forward to be higher than the average $554 in first quarter 2006," said RBC Capital Markets analyst, Stephen Walker, said in a note.
> 
> "This revenue lift more than offsets the $1.2bn in costs incurred to date," he said.




So they lock in a $1.2 Billion loss *in the HOPE of prices staying above $554/oz* instead of taking a smaller but guaranteed profit.

When the producers start to speculate, you just know you've entered bubble territory

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> So they lock in a $1.2 Billion loss *in the HOPE of prices staying above $554/oz* instead of taking a smaller but guaranteed profit.
> 
> When the producers start to speculate, you just know you've entered bubble territory
> 
> jog on
> d998



You may have not been following Barrick's disastrous hedge situation over recent years.
Barrick tried to manipulate prices (lower) some years ago, and are now being caught out.
We're not far of your $720 topline figure now, so perhaps your analysis will need a bit of reworking: But I can wait till the fat lady sings.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> You may have not been following Barrick's disastrous hedge situation over recent years.
> Barrick tried to manipulate prices (lower) some years ago, and are now being caught out.
> We're not far of your $720 topline figure now, so perhaps your analysis will need a bit of reworking: But I can wait till the fat lady sings.




No I haven't. 
Interesting that they seem to have got it so wrong previously, yet now they presumably have got it so right.

Speculation by a business, within it's supposed area of expertise, is always a concern..........if they can't make a business profit with current prices, why would you expect them to make a speculative profit?

As regards my $720........it is indeed getting quite warm in the kitchen, however I still see nothing save rampant speculation. Speculation by definition is subject to rapid and irrational revisions.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> *As regards my $720........it is indeed getting quite warm in the kitchen, however I still see nothing save rampant speculation. Speculation by definition is subject to rapid and irrational revisions.*



*
ducati
Surely your "revision" will not be irrational - surely!
POG just running over $681 so I seem to be too conservative with my gold views.  I keep telling myself to be more bullish, but old age tempers it.
As for Barrick, they got in bed with the banks and tried to make money from financial manipulation rather than gold mining per se.
They have got what they deserved.
It's an interesting diversion to also note that CRS, which consoled investors with conservative hedging of 30% of reserves, got into trouble because it could not produce enough gold to meet its actual obligations.
Another gold stock worth looking at only via its chart is KCN: It's hedge position stops it from earning more than AU$600/oz while the spot price is another $250+ more.
But I digress from the thread's theme.
At the moment I would have to say gold was a good chance to break $900 by year's end - seeing irrational revisions are allowable.
The second half of the calendar year is typically stronger than the first, so I will reserve my judgement on $1000 for now, mostly because we have yet to have a decent retrace this year.*


----------



## Profitseeker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> ducati
> 
> I sincerely appreciate your reply.
> Thank you.
> 
> I respect our differing positions and agree that the commodity sector is neither for the faint hearted nor fundamentally illiterate.
> 
> All market trading carries risk: That is a given.  My position is that if one has a reasonable understanding of the risk, and a very good understanding of the probabilities surrounding one's investments in that market, the risk is worth taking.
> 
> Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG.  My protfolio of CHESS holdings is below (note that I hold 50k CWT for yield):




You should look at adding some BDG!


----------



## Profitseeker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Did Gold really hit 682 last night. I feel like I am dreaming. It is going up very fast.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1147063463.php

Jim Sinclair interview

he's been very accurate at predicting price movements in the past

he thinks breaking 682 was significant, if we can hold above that, next target 887.50 and then 1650...

2007 and 2008 is when gold will really move, this year just the warm-up


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Having a good run at the minute... 689....


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Nizar you beat me to the post by 8 minuets, good run ill say...hope the trend continues into the morning - if it does hold onto your seats tommorow (IMO).

Was thinking about starting a new thread with a poll to see who thinks it will break $700 overnight but decided against it due to lack of posters at this time of night.


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

691.20
am i dreaming?


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				powerkoala said:
			
		

> 691.20
> am i dreaming?



Nope, in fact its risen by almost $100 within a month, this type of momentum is hard to stop but when it ends, well......let's not jump the gun, just be prepared.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

RichKid have a look at historical charts for 1979-1980

On January 1st 1980, gold price was ~520, THREE WEEKS later it was 850, then ONE WEEK later its back to ~630

So i could imagine alot of money was made and lost in that 1 month...

MY point is... $100 in 1 month is NOTHING...

Heaps more to come from this gold bull run IMO... 

And yeh.. gold is sitting on 696.20 !!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> RichKid have a look at historical charts for 1979-1980
> 
> On January 1st 1980, gold price was ~520, THREE WEEKS later it was 850, then ONE WEEK later its back to ~630
> 
> So i could imagine alot of money was made and lost in that 1 month...
> 
> MY point is... $100 in 1 month is NOTHING...
> 
> Heaps more to come from this gold bull run IMO...
> 
> And yeh.. gold is sitting on 696.20 !!




True, but we haven't had a decent correcton for awhile, 700 is a big round number and this move is fairly extended. Eitherway I expect the gold co's with solid fundamentals to keep going, especially the new producers. 
*
btw, I moved some of the posts from this thread on ASX gold stocks to the Gold Stocks thread in the ASX Stock Chat forum.*


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				powerkoala said:
			
		

> 691.20
> am i dreaming?



$700 touched - a golden touch at that


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

An old article on Gold, from February 2006: http://www.smh.com.au/news/money/who-wants-to-be-a-bullionaire/2006/02/25/1140670298615.html


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*  GOLD -* 

A  serious  look  at history  repeating  itself ............... 
--------------------------------------------------------


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

* Gold /*        Since - 1975 -

 NEVER AGAIN  IN  OUR  LIFETIME ( Already blasted out of a major base. ) 
 - A REAL SIGN OF THE TIMES .......

---------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> * Gold /*        Since - 1975 -
> 
> NEVER AGAIN  IN  OUR  LIFETIME ( Already blasted out of a major base. )
> - A REAL SIGN OF THE TIMES .......
> 
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------



Beautiful work Markets, looking forward to more once we see the correction and the preparation for the final thrust up, if it happens, best not to predict but this is looking so bullish it's not funny. The correction will be nasty though imo and we will have a major correction imho.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Originally Posted by YOUNG_TRADER
> I'm no expert but a simple look at the gold chart over the year tells me that it moved in a $20USD trade range up to August ($420-$440) then a $40USD trade range up to Novemeber ($440-$480) then a $60USD trade range up to January ($480-$540) which would suggest that so long as it holds above $540USD (ish) its nest trade range should be $80USD giving a target price of $620 USD,
> 
> I know this seems overally simplistic, but then I'm a simple person
> 
> So I'd say by April/May it should be reaching $620 USD and once it breaks out strongly above that its next target should be $720USD
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Keeping to my very simple theory, Gold has now hit my upper range of $620, which means a new (now $100) range has begun being $620 - $720,
> 
> I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,





Its almost at the upper limit of this range (imo $720) which once broken above = a new $120 phase ie $720 - $840

It may just be coincidence but my simple theory has held up since I first stated it.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Its almost at the upper limit of this range (imo $720) which once broken above = a new $120 phase ie $720 - $840
> 
> It may just be coincidence but my simple theory has held up since I first stated it.



Simple works.
$840 looking very likely, much sooner than later, eh!
I like "round" numbers, mostly.
So with $700 gone, $800 is next, and we can probbaly skip to $1000 after that.
Iwill be very concerned if there is not a major retrace - a quick freefall of $50-$100 is need to shake out the speculators.
The uptrend will always resume in earnest while the greenback is falling apart.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> *rederob*
> My range calculation was approximately $400+ to $720 odd.
> I see nothing currently to change my view.
> jog on
> d998



ducati
Look at the latest gold chart.
If that does not work then nothing will.


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

this is nuts... 
just touch $730
think it will be $800 by this month...


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I think we will see $800 within 2 weeks tops, but anything is possible.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				powerkoala said:
			
		

> this is nuts...
> just touch $730
> think it will be $800 by this month...




There appear to be some parallels between the recent surge and the previous surge through 500- worth a look? Any points of difference? (the crowd does have some memory of these things).


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> ducati
> Look at the latest gold chart.
> If that does not work then nothing will.




I had a look at the gold chart.
It is a parabolic pattern. Parabolics tend to collapse. It is simply a matter of who blinks first, and who is the fastest draw (execution to exit)

Gold from 1921 to 2006 = 3.5% or it's central value
Gold from 2000 to 2006 = 16.1% it's current compounded return
Gold from 1980 to 1999 = (-4.5%) it's previous underperformance

With the BOJ set to raise interest rates earlier, there would be far better opportunities available in Japan......their real estate market is starting to warm up ................

As it was the liquidity from Japan that created a large component of world liquidity...........which bled largely into gold, as that liquidity is removed, how resilient will gold remain?

As regards gold, the markets are abuzz with speculation that the China bank, and possibly other Asian banks are contemplating buying gold.

A number of points;
If the Chinese are as canny as you believe, why would they pay a speculative price for gold?
You would pay the "investment value" if there is such a price.

Why would they want gold in the first place?

Based on the fact that their economy is expansionary, and their policy is expansionary, and gold would be contractionary, why the contradiction?

China's requirements are in energy, far more than some inert lump of metal. 
90% of China's energy is currently supplied by coal. This also has given them 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world.

Their stated mission is for energy, and all capital flows confirm that policy.
Traders buying gold in anticipation of demand for gold from China had better not hold their breath..................

Therefore, while rampant speculation has taken gold to $720+ that in no way would entice me to buy gold..............quite the opposite.

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> It is a parabolic pattern. Parabolics tend to collapse. It is simply a matter of who blinks first, and who is the fastest draw (execution to exit)




I tend to agree.... particularly in physical commodity markets.

...and why do people get in all a flutter when gold starts moving? There are similar parbolas all over the financial and commodity markets without so much as a second thought. Why does gold do this to people?

Gold has had a great move in the last year, but Natural Gas has had the same sort of move and back again in the same period...nary a whisper.

Soybeans had a similar move last year, nearly doubling inside of six months... nobodies even heard of soybeans... I could go on.

So why Gold?


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Therefore, while rampant speculation has taken gold to $720+ that in no way would entice me to buy gold..............quite the opposite*.



Not asking you to buy gold as I am happy to do that.
But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?

Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -



> Now a pretty please with whomever on top as you so choose - come up with a forward price on gold and we have something to toss around.



And one of your multitude of sweeping conclusions:


> And as is the want with speculators, they are wrong, as often as they are right. You are wrong. The figures are there, and I have no intention of changing them nor defending them. You see they are a speculative range, and as a speculative range they are as likely to be wrong as right.
> 
> If you are right in this case, and they do reach $800+ in whatever timeframe, then you will increase your profits and can claim to be a genius.



In the light of the fact that gold has breached your preferred upper range of $720 I think it only fair to give you another opportunity to prove yourself.  On the other hand, I will concede utter defeat if gold’s “parabola” collapses and by year’s end POG is trading under $800 (which I believe is generous in that my expectation was for gold to be near that level by year’s end, rather than be as “support”).

For the moment, I am hoping for another $50 or greater retrace in gold near term, but will not hold my breath: Corrections in the metals complex as a whole are running to about 3 days instead of 3 weeks or more.

Wayne
I will put you into ducati’s camp.  Do you recall an earlier post where you mooted a $500 correction and I replied:



> Yo!
> Wayne
> Lets try for a $600 correction
> Nah
> Make it $700 - don't like downside surprises!




My concluding remark for now is that playing the markets means taking a forward view, and that view can be based on your decision to trade a safe “yield” equity, or a highly speculative futures contract. You enter the trade with a “view”, never a “knowledge”.  Posting that “view” can mean a loss or gain of “reputation”, but in the case of ducati, he has my respect for at least trying to work out gold: A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold  Oct '06 15:16:24 726.0 s 
 -9.7 738.0 740.0 723.0 

WOW, gold futures for October 2006 seem a bargain at 726 dont u reckon?


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

COT chart of Gold:




If a valley bottom in that red line signals a peak then we are due for one shortly , but then everyone's expecting a correction, may not last long though and we may be away again. (caution, I have no idea how to read these graphs properly, just my guess).


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

very interesting Rich

Where did u get that chart from?


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> very interesting Rich
> 
> Where did u get that chart from?



I am sure I saw it when I was reading some of *Rorschach's * work.

RichKid
I think your analysis was spot on.

There are a few people that try to make sense of COT data, and it can tell you about the levels of interest of the various players.  It can also hint at near term direction. As a predicative tool it is about as useful as a rain gauge in the shower.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold @ $685, has broken my range trend, I have no idea where its headed, up oviously but my trnd has been broken   

Siggghhhhhh and it was looking like such a reliable trend, $420-$440 ($20), $440-$480 ($40), $480-$540 ($60), $540 -$620 ($80), $620 - $720 ($100), next was $720 - $840, but gold had to hold above $700, oh well back to the drawing board.


----------



## Kipp

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Gold @ $685, has broken my range trend, I have no idea where its headed, up oviously but my trnd has been broken
> 
> Siggghhhhhh and it was looking like such a reliable trend, $420-$440 ($20), $440-$480 ($40), $480-$540 ($60), $540 -$620 ($80), $620 - $720 ($100), next was $720 - $840, but gold had to hold above $700, oh well back to the drawing board.



I was watching gold hover at 720 all day thinking how crazy people were selling off BMO... dammit!

YT do you know what Ni and Zn are currently trading at?  Kitco is ha assed up at the moment.  (Well, I'm hoping Ni isn't at $3.30/lb!!!)


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I am sure I saw it when I was reading some of *Rorschach's * work.
> 
> RichKid
> I think your analysis was spot on.
> 
> There are a few people that try to make sense of COT data, and it can tell you about the levels of interest of the various players.  It can also hint at near term direction. As a predicative tool it is about as useful as a rain gauge in the shower.




Nizar, It's from Upperman's site, futures traders know more about this than us mortals: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm

Most of what I've learnt is from ASF, that was just a guess btw, was the highest probability guess imo, just lucky that it coincided, not exactly as reliable as for some other markets these days (so much speculation going on, it's easy to trade these instruments (even if indirectly) now as well, everyones on the web and there's so much wealth in the world), WayneL has been particularly helpful in explaining these things to us novices, if you search this site and use 'COT' or 'Commitment of Traders' you'll get some gems, some references in the FX (AUD/USD/DX) threads as well. 

I had trouble finding free cot charts so I googled it and Upperman was the best so far, many other sources. It gives you and idea of who is really behind these moves. No wonder they're running scared in London, I've read that the banks have taken some hits (see Kitco). Quite a few books on COT, Larry Williams has put one out recently as well. A system in itself I think- see Upperman.  Wayne also had some old commentary on COT charts on his old website, not sure if it's still there.

Btw, I think this is a wave 4 correction in pog in EW speak. If not and it keeps going lower on volume then that's the end of it all.  The greater the volatility the greater the risk of it ending. Going by the timeframes I'll be surprised if the trend doesn't end in the next 3-4 wks, I'm happy to see 675 holding as it ranged there a bit earlier.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

btw, if this is the end of the current move higher for gold I'd be looking for that red COT line to reach the red peaks, a nice flat line can be drawn to line them up. That should signal the end of the correction. Then onwards to 1000 imo, but  let's wait and see without being too wishful.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> .....onwards to 1000 imo, but  let's wait and see without being too wishful.



Nothing like being a baby bear in wolve's clothing.
Be a BIG BEAR and hope for $650 - then you can probably put the $1000 price to bed with goldielocks.

Must say that having watched silver and gold closely for half the day, silver's disconnection from gold (in that it continues to drop when POG occasionally retraces) is disconcerting.

Soon we will have the New York giants of the stock exchange open their doors.  As I have an early start in the morning, I will forecast POG to return to plus$700 by NY market close on the same basis that I forecast the weather - nothing in particular.


----------



## ctp6360

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

rederob, I have been watching gold too and just notice a spike up then when the US market opened, since I am a complete novice I have no idea if the graph I'm looking at is combined over multiple markets or what, but that little spike back up seems promising....


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ctp6360 said:
			
		

> rederob, I have been watching gold too and just notice a spike up then when the US market opened, since I am a complete novice I have no idea if the graph I'm looking at is combined over multiple markets or what, but that little spike back up seems promising....



......you ratbag
now I'm hooked on the chart you are looking at and it's ticking quickly higher


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Nothing like being a baby bear in wolve's clothing.
> Be a BIG BEAR and hope for $650 - then you can probably put the $1000 price to bed with goldielocks.
> 
> Must say that having watched silver and gold closely for half the day, silver's disconnection from gold (in that it continues to drop when POG occasionally retraces) is disconcerting.




Hi rederob,
yep, I keep changing my view as the market changes, feel a lot more comfortable with doing that after reading Nick Radge's book, 
'Adaptive' Analysis he calls it. On the larger charts a fall to around 650 wouldn't be too bad, just another correction in a larger uptrend. The strong recent moves suggest that once it resumes the uptrend (if it does), it wont have much trouble going that high again. Doesn't matter eitherway to my account as long as I have my stops in place and diversify. Might get stopped out of my gold stocks this week though!

Check out Colin Twiggs's Gold chart on the Incredible Charts website, I find his commentary very useful.

Interesting what you say about Silver, maybe it's less prone to noise than Gold since Silver is not as fashionable, so maybe we'll get clearer signals from intermarket analysis?


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> .... I will forecast POG to return to plus$700 by NY market close on the same basis that I forecast the weather - nothing in particular.



Well, they forecast rain and the sun is shining!
So gold is down - good.
It needs another tilt at $650.
Richkid, Unless Radge's book can tell you what the price of gold will be before it collapses, it would be as useful to me as the weekend AFL or League commentaries.
I try to get a holistic view of things and then work out what impact that will have.  My view is that gold will run a lot higher, a heck of a lot higher. 
But that does not mean last week's $720 was not the top, and that we are on a slippery slope down.
Just that, to me, the market's fundamentals are suggestive that for gold specifically we are not within cooee of the top.
I am awaiting a more definitie analysis from ducati, of course, so that I can be more expansive on reasons why.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

US$s being almost worthless in a year or two will be enough for $2000 gold.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> I am awaiting a more definitie analysis from ducati, of course, so that I can be more expansive on reasons why.




Well, here you go then, excuse it being a little disjointed as I have just copied and pasted my posts from Reef.

S1 


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Let's get to Gold and indeed other metals for a moment and let's relate it for the moment to the comment I made about Spring 2003. Why did I pick that date ?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok,


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Competing asset groups and alternative costs.Gold itself unless invested in Gold shares provides no revenue stream. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Agreed, gold as the physical provides only capital gain/loss.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Consequently when placed against risk free returns there is an alternative cost to holding Gold immediately. The higher the return on risk free 'cash' , fixed bonds the higher the loss on holding Gold. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Correct.
Therefore, by that reasoning, as yields rise on Risk Free asset classes and capital gains on physical gold parabolic............what remains to drive further speculative except the public?


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 It was probably unavoidable that as the trend in 'cash' returns dropped increasingly from the end of the 90's to the recent lows money would flow from 'cash' to Gold

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Correct.
However at that point, the price of gold, while off the lows of 1999 at least had a semblence of logic............currently, speculative fever drives the market, bubble territory. It will crash, just when.

The only fundamental value for buying gold the physical is the belief that gold offsets inflation. Therefore to realize that effect, if it actually exists, is to buy at the correct price........the correct price most certainly is not $500+


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this sense Gold becomes attractive regardless of whether the next step in returns on 'cash' are deflationary ,or indeed inflationary in a global sense.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disagree.
Gold is only attractive at the correct valuation to parallel inflation. This due to the current excess in speculative activity has broken the link.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why might the Asians put their money in Gold and indeed other metals. This is business. We have already said at some point they play a long term game. Intrinsic in that will be their willingness to hold metals essential to their growth prospects. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which is precisely where the whole argument breaks down. If the Asian are as canny as you suggest, their Central banks will not be buying gold at these levels, they will understand prices are cyclical, and a bust will follow the boom.........therefore, sit and wait for the bargains.

The retail market for gold, India, weddings etc, will be driven by price.........high price, lower demand, lower price, higher demand.
Preliminary data is already indicating that the retail market in India, far from being net buyers, were actually net sellers.

Save for this market, viz. jewelry, gold is a useless commodity, having very small overall demand.

Copper, on the LME, has also gone parabolic.
Again, demand from producers is not driving the price, speculative liqudity has distorted a possibly genuine increase in demand from producers, to mayhem. 

The instability of raw materials prices has been with us for at least a hundred years.
The chief harm to business in depressions and recessions, comes not from ordinary operating deficits, but from inventory losses due to the collapse in price.

These price collapses, while damaging to all producers, are especially damaging to producers of raw materials, copper, coffee, gold, beef, etc.

Furthermore, it is this price instability of the primary raw materials that antecedes and induces later price instability of produced goods.

Most serious is the effect of price instability on countries chiefly dependant upon pricing power in raw materials. The reduction of national income and the impairment of living standards of the population are damaging. Consequences include; defaults on foreign debt, severe reduction in imports of manufactured product, new trade restrictions, and depreciation of the currency.

What % of GDP are resources in Australia?
We are starting to see it in NZ, and hell, they only have sheep and milk.

The US, by comparison, is far larger a producer of services. The commodity that hurts them of course is oil, but the effect of other commodity prices reduces year after year as increasingly manufacturing is moved off-shore.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 We are therefore in a circular issue which inevitably comes back to US consumption and it's contribution to World growth rate. If it's dips significantly the risk to every the World economy is great. In circular fashion this brings us back to will the Fed let this happen ,or will they print money gradually to prop up this consumption and if they do who's buying and what rate.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Exactly so.
Now, although the US will hurt, it will hurt less than others. The law of the jungle.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's a very tricky problem propping up consumption under these circumstances and the uncertainty of that whist it remains will in my view continue to drive Gold. I just cannot see this being resolved quickly hence my interest for the next few years ,or until I see some reduction in the level of uncertainty surrounding the US.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the US goes protectionist, and Congress is currently full of protectionist advocates, then again, the US will hurt, but other areas of the world economy will really, really hurt.

War has always driven throughout history a boom/bust cycle. With the current war, and potential wars in the making, again, boom/bust cycles are in evidence..........


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

S1 


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Actually my brother misunderstood me on this as well. What I was saying is essentially this. Gold is another currency more than it is simply another commodity.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disagree.
Gold & Currency are both commodities 
Simply they are the commodity of transaction. Gold failed as the commodity of transaction as it was contractionary.......it's physical production was finite, or at least limited in specific timeframes.

For an economy to grow, the medium of exchange must be able to grow as fast, or faster, than GDP, else, overall expansion must be limited by the availability of the liquidity of transaction, via the creation of credit.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 As for what is the fundamental value of gold you're wasting your time at the moment.It's fundamental value as an alternative currency is incalculable. It's fundamental value as a commodity is a different question,but at the moment it's value as an alternative currency is what we are seeing and speculating on.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disagree.
The fundamental, or intrinsic value of gold is pretty close to zero. Historically the fundamental value has linked itself to inflation, but again, it really depends on which timeframe you measure it on.

Gold from 1921 to 2006 = 3.5% inflation rate
Gold from 2000 to 2006 = 16.1% inflation rate
Gold from 1980 to 1999 = (-4.5%) deflation rate

If you had measured your holding point from 1980 and ended in 1999, you would have lost ground badly against inflation by 8% compounded....thus even the inflationary argument for twenty years held no water.

Gold, as N40K alluded, is a speculative medium, nothing more nothing less. Currently it has been hot for 5+yrs.........how much longer, higher?


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 The line between fundamental and speculative values has given people problems from time immemorial which is why we get this cyclic effect of overshoot and undershoot. What we do know though is that it becomes more pronounced in times when liquidity is high and boy as it been high. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Agreed.
Therefore, the question again becomes; in contractionary environments, which asset class, or investment philosophy can be utilized safely (relatively speaking) with an expectation of ultimate success? What is a true inflation hedge?


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 The rate at which that takes place will determine where the line between fundamental values and speculative values is drawn, but as usual it will highlight assets values on a scarcity basis.
I won't argue with you over the metals group and how supply & demand will effect their pricing. Just remember though ...all asset groups at the moment are overvalued so which of the main groups are the most scarce is what we are really talking about here.Which are going to be the most sticky in terms of giving up their over valued element?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you cannot value the asset, you are then by definition speculating. 


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Volatility is a function of uncertainty as to fundamental value and excess liquidity is a precursor to the aforementioned...simple as that .. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Agreed.
Speculators create volatility, as they by definition do not calculate the value, utilising the marketability to create increased liquidity.
Investors, recognizing value, start to remove the liquidity.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

S1 


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking at the timeframes you have used is a wee bit deceptive. I don't know if you chose them specifically for that purpose. Try 1970 to 1980. Try 1930 to 1940. There are times and those are two when preceding rapid expansion in liquidity forced a contractionary reaction of same. At that time values of paper currency were extremely volatile and in effect gold was bought for it's stability. Vice a versa ...as the volatility of paper money stabilised so did the value of gold drop. In essence you are valuing the relative volatility of two mediums..paper currency and gold.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nonsense.
In 1930 the US, and many of the major economies were tied to the gold standard, in which the *value* of gold was *fixed*

Countries that abandoned the gold standard in 1931 included; UK, Japan, Germany, Canada, Sweden, Norway, and several others.

Countries that abandoned gold standard in 1932;
USA, Rumania, Italy

Countries remaining on gold after 1936;
France, Netherlands, Poland

After 1936 with the dissolution of the gold standard, and the advent of WWII, the final effects of deflation and depression were erased.

Gold is, and has been since the advent of global trade contractionary, which is why it was finally laid to rest in Nixons presidency on Aug 15 1971 as he closed the gold window.

In the years 1930 - 1940 therefore the official rate remained at $35.00oz, and speculation in private markets may well have fluctuated, but nothing worth getting excited over.

US Treasury rates were at;
1930 - 3.29%
1931 - 3.34%
1932 - 3.68%
1933 - 3.31%
1934 - 3.12%
1935 - 2.79%
1936 - 2.65%
1937 - 2.68%
1938 - 2.56%
1939 - 2.36%
1940 - 2.21%

From which we can postulate that with interest rates low, and falling, under monetary policy, no longer linked to gold, that the conditions were designed to be inflationary due to the preceeding depression and deflationary environment.

Inflation measured by the CPI was still deflationary, returning (-2.05%) Therefore we can see the logic in the falling interest rates.
Stimulus was required to jump start the economy.


Further, we can state that as the price of gold was fixed at $35oz, speculating in gold was a quick way nowhere returning 0.0%

Holding cash (currency) would have returned you in this time period 2.05% therefore.

Holding cash equivelents, viz. Bonds, would have returned you at best, 5.73% at par, at worst, 4.26%

Moving to 1970 - 1980

Bond rate;
1970 - 7.72%
1971 - 5.11%
1972 - 4.69%
1973 - 8.15%
1974 - 9.87%
1975 - 6.33%
1976 - 5.35
1977 - 5.60%
1978 - 7.99%
1979 - 10.91%
1980 - 12.29%

Inflation measured by CPI = 7.42%
Price of Gold = +34.46%

Here we can see that, with high inflation, rising bond yields......that indeed gold was the place to be.

Gold would need to have been purchased at the low of $34.91, and sold at $675 or higher.

So gold was stable in 1930 to 1940, as of course it was fixed. It was most definitely not *stable* in 1970 to 1980, displaying one of it's most volatile periods in history, it then of course plunged into the grave for 20yrs, again with high volatility.

It is, as N40K reiterated, purely a speculative medium. It's value is psychological in nature, it has to be, because it is not linked to currency, which is the *official* medium of transaction and nominal *wealth*

Currency, is a speculative medium, it is the medium of exchange, as transactional power rises and falls within an economy, so the value of the sovereign medium of transaction will adjust.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 "thus even the inflationary argument for twenty years held no water."..that was not "inflationary". 1970 to early 1980's were inflationary as a result of the prior expansionary decades 50's & 60's...inflation was basically contracting thereafter albeit from a very high starting point.
Hence it was not surprising that gold lost value against paper currency over that period. Paper money was in effect becoming comparatively more stable hence gold lost it's attraction.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nonsense.
Lets then look at 1980 - 1990

Bond rates;
1980 - 12.29%
1981 - 14.76%
1982 - 11.89%
1983 - 8.89%
1984 - 10.16%
1985 - 8.01%
1986 - 6.39%
1987 - 6.85%
1988 - 7.68%
1989 - 8.80%
1990 - 8.40%

Inflation measured by CPI = +5.05%
Gold = (-4.86%)

Again we see that holding gold, in an inflationary period was a disaster. Bonds, even in a high period of inflation would have been far more attractive.

Price, and the price you pay delivers your investment returns.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 So the liquidity was to some extent unforeseen. As a consequence we have seen increasing volatility in paper currency and growth in asset values. In turn we have seen increasing interest in gold for it's relative stability. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The price of gold has been anything but STABLE it has been on an absolute run. To the point where you have to start asking, are the psychological catalysts driving the price going to remain in place?

Are alternate asset classes undervalued, even relatively by comparison to gold?
If so, might it not be an idea to think about moving from a bubble, to something hated?

At current prices, in REAL terms, rather than nominal terms, the BET is on the further fall in the US$, due to increasing inflation, with kind of middle of the road bond yields. 


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We should have had a recession back around 2002/3 .We didn't get it ,because liquidity was thrown into the market place specifically to prevent it.That took a double whammy as the Fed did not account for the effect on liquidity that would arise from the recent opening of markets to the cheap goods coming in from the East. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disagree.
The Bureau of Labour has been systematically under-reporting the effect of imports from the East. It would seem that they wanted to reduce the liquidity engendered in large part from Japan and their systematic flooding of the world with ultra-cheap currency to dispel their contractionary, deflationary economy.

The liquidity cushioned the 2000 - 2003 market crash, but inflated other bubbles, housing and commodities.......that are now exactly where?

A commodities crash will hurt no-one in the short-term save the speculators on the wrong side of the trade, if taken too far, producers will suffer also, thus eventually leading to economic effects.

A housing crash will have potentially greater impact in the short term, as consumers will be caught with everyone else.......

Just returning to gold, producers are *speculating* with everyone else currently, as they have removed all their production hedges. Some serious selling will take place when the producers lose their nerve and try to lock in forward sales. Of course the lack of production hedges has allowed the price to go parabolic..........

Which brings us back to the current time frame;

2000 to 2006
PPI from 1921 to 2006 = 2.4%
PPI from 2000 to 2006 = 4.5% 
PPI from 1980 to 1999 = 2.1% 

CPI from 1921 to 2006 = 2.8% 
CPI from 2000 to 2006 = 2.8% 
CPI from 1980 to 1999 = 4.1% 

Gold from 1921 to 2006 = 3.5% 
Gold from 2000 to 2006 = 16.1%
Gold from 1980 to 1999 = (-4.5%) 

The argument would seem to be, that gold in percentage terms is only at 50% of it's high point return, inflation is only at 50% of it's high point (measured by PPI) and hey, it'll go to 100% and bonds are only at 50%'ish of their highs.

Back to the old 50/50 ratio.
50/50 odds just are not enough.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Thank you
Do you want to summarise, or shall I take you out of context?


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 

No, you can take me out of context, I'll pick it up where you leave off.
But basically, I don't like gold at these levels.......they are pure speculation, there is no fundamental justification for them.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> *rederob*
> 
> No, you can take me out of context, I'll pick it up where you leave off.
> But basically, I don't like gold at these levels.......they are pure speculation, there is no fundamental justification for them.
> 
> jog on
> d998



Thanks ducati
Essentially ducati has no ability to forecast a price for a speculative commodity that fails his views of what the correct price should be.
Whereas I trust the market to work its magic and skew logic to buggery.
So in this illogical world, people are not trusting fiat currency, but are looking at alternatives, such as gold.
As the price of gold inflates, the implied trust of the masses in gold as an alternative currency increases: We have a self fulfilling prophecy until gold goes parabolic and collapses on itself.
In the meantime, people like me and thousands of others work out that there are lots of ways to make money, including relying on the fear and greed of the masses - whoa boy, that's speculation!
Oddly enough, speculation might not pay dividends, but it can pay the bills better than dividends when one is on the right side.
Right now I think gold at $1000 is  very achievable next year, but not this one.
Right now I would prefer a greater correction, and a longer consolidation than a few days!
Right now I reckon this market does not give a toss about my view, or ducati's.
And in time we will see if ducati's logic holds up and the gold price falls into line, or if we are looking at a $1000 party in 2007.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

agree rederob

a few weeks consolidation and even down to 600-620 would be nice

historically, gold has always been a better performer in the 2nd half of the year, and i dont see why it could be different this time

IMO... by end of december we will be very close to 1000

after this rally resumes, maybe next month, next point of resistance will probably be 850, and then off to a G


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Right now I reckon this market does not give a toss about my view, or ducati's.




This is how I've been feeling lol....I second that cynicism!


----------



## clowboy

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

LOL

Yea sux when the market does not listen to what you say.

It's like a child, always thinks it knows best.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> agree rederob
> a few weeks consolidation and even down to 600-620 would be nice



nizar
POG raced up $30 after our markets opened today and have had an intraday peak of $718 - presently back at $714.
Silver followed suit and broke over $14 before settling at $13.90 for time being.
Is the correction over?
If we took a cue from base metals, then the answer today is yes: Already at LME the average increase is around 1.5%, except for zinc which is up 5%: This comes on top of a modest rally last night.
Am hoping we just see some consolidation below previous highs for a while before breaking out again, just to put a bit of zing into the next upleg.

ducati
Your reply, while elaborative, has not forecast an actual price into the future (unless it was hidden somewhere).
I think it is impossible for you and I ever to agree on what value, price or influence gold has on people or markets.
However, I see commerce/finance as an opportunity to exploit opportunities rather than hide under a bushell.
Accordingly, I will remain overweight commodities and reduce my bias in gold to unhedged producers: The present phase of the gold bull is where the big money will be made, and hedges crimp potential gain.
C'mon ducati, what will it take for you to have another go?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I would also like this to consolidate for a bit longer rederob.

If it climbs immediately it's destined for an even harder fall. 

I'd have to consider cashing in a few things if it takes off again.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I would also like this to consolidate for a bit longer rederob.
> 
> If it climbs immediately it's destined for an even harder fall.
> 
> I'd have to consider cashing in a few things if it takes off again.




Interesting to see where gold may go from here Kennas. As you know I have already cashed in my bars, however I am planning on buying again in the years ahead as golds secular bullmarket is far from over in my opinion. 

I beleive in order to get some clue of things to come then we must first look at the big picture. A long term chart of gold, the 30 Yr chart. As can be seen price fluctuations are contained within 2 curvilinear constant width envelope bounds. An outer envelope(lower and upper blue lines) and an inner envelope bound(upper and lower green envelope which itself is bound by the outer envlope) My envelope drawing is a bit rough but you can see that gold has come up against overhead resistance where price is touching the inner upper bound (green line) at this time. As price vibrates(oscillates) between one extreme to another of the inner bounds then the next logical long term move would be a correction back to the $500 level in the years ahead followed by a massive rally to over $1000.

At the bottom of the chart it is quite clear the gold follows an 8.5 year cycle from low to low. Within the 8.5 year (102 months)cycle there are 3 smaller cyclicalities of 34 moths each. The last 8.5 year cycle bottomed in April of 2001. This means we 60 months or > half way along the 8.5 years cycle which means this cycle is now pointed down. The last 34 month cycle last bottomed 14/05/04  and is due to bottom  early next year. We are 24 months along this cycle it too is pointed down. 

Thus all cycles are pointed hard down until 2009. That is why I made the decision to liquidate and hold off for the time being. Right or wrong I have made my decision based on this evidence. 
Remembering of course that cycles are not exactly accurate and they can change phase, but at present it makes sense to me to be out both from a technical perspective and a sentiment one as well.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

That is a very interesting chart wavepicker. 

You are right though, it's not an exact science, but it will be interesting to see if this unfolds something like this, with higher or lower peaks and troughs in the cycles. 

I'll be looking for that low point in the 8.5 year cycle in 2009!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> .......
> 
> I beleive in order to get some clue of things to come then we must first look at the big picture. ...............
> Remembering of course that cycles are not exactly accurate and they can change phase, but at present it makes sense to me to be out both from a technical perspective and a sentiment one as well.
> 
> Cheers




Very refreshing to see a different perspective, thanks wavepicker, please keep us updated as things change.


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold seems to have found at least some level of support at the 680 mark.  Hopefully it will remain in the 660 - 700 range for the next week or so, so that all the scared little investors can regain some confidence  : 

Would this be enough of a correction for another large upswing?  or do we need to consolidate at the 620 mark for a nicer long term trend?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

It's only going to take more news like this for gold to reverse it's downward slide:

0015 GMT [Dow Jones] Japan public broadcaster NHK report North Korea may be preparing to launch what seems to be Taepodong-2 long-range missile could bring end to gold slide as metal viewed as safe haven in times of uncertainty; Japan investors in particular may be jittery, remembering how in 1998 North Korea lobbed Taepodong-1 missile over its territory and into Pacific. Report says satellite photos show increased activity at missile base in northeast, though adds missile doesn't seem ready for firing yet; may be more a bid to force U.S. hand on negotiations over Pyongyang's nuke ambitions. Taepodong-2 missile has range of around 6,700 kilometers, some predict it may be able to reach continental U.S. Gold last at $679.40, little changed from NY.(JSH)

We live in an unstable world.


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I've been looking at it this way....if gold and precious metal goes up with instability then we are set to see them all stay high for the rest of our lives  

And if it gets so bad that the markets crash completely (nuclear war) then we really won't be that concerned with how much money we have now will we


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				LPA said:
			
		

> Would this be enough of a correction for another large upswing?  or do we need to consolidate at the 620 mark for a nicer long term trend?




On the ball there LPA

Consolidation at 600-620 over the next few weeks would be nice. Jim Rogers has even called 550-600

Then i expect to see 800-850 very quickly by end of august

IMO....


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

An article from Kitco on trading tactics and the correction in gold: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/may182006.html


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I have provided a 5 year log chart of gold(just for refernce) based on my interpretation of the Elliott Wave Principle. I have been wrong on many occasions before, and this chart should not be assumed to be 100% correct. This same chart was sent to tech/a some weeks ago when I said to him  I beleive we were close to a top ( $660 level) where I liquidated my position.

The market ran up higher than that of course!!( Damn I always seem to miss out on that last leg of a wave count- so very difficult to get spot on) But who cares, as far as I am concerned our job is not to pick exact tops and bottoms but to identify when a trend is at risk of ending and then exiting safely. Gold has now fallen back very quickly to that level and that stance can be justified.

Now how far will it fall back? Throughout my own experience in Elliott waves, I have noticed that wave 2 corrections have a 65% statistical tendancy to find support between the 0.382 to 0.500 levels of the whole 5 wave impulse advance.That would mean a pullback to bewteen the 490-545 level.

Having said that, if you follow "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost and Prechter, they make quite a strong case for the level of the previous 4th wave of one less degree( in this case 425-452 level) which just so happens to coincide with 0.618 fibonacci level of this whole impulse. Although they say this is not a rule but a guideline. Given we have had such a powerfull move from the low of $250, I don't think this will be the case, but anything is possible in the market and nothing can be taken for granted. If it's one thing that I have learnt in the market, what seems logical- usually will not happen. That is why I try and stay clear of fundementals.

Then there is a question of *time*. If the whole bullmarket advance(an impulse) took more than 6 years to complete, would you expect a shallow correction in terms of time? I don't think so. Throughout my studies I have noticed that a second wave can take anything between 23-50% of the time it took to complete the advance. In most cases 38.2%. 

That is why I have been saying more like 2-3 years.

Once again, all the above is just my opinion- based on the way I see it to date. I could be very wrong

Cheers


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> I have provided a 5 year log chart of gold(just for refernce) based on my interpretation of the Elliott Wave Principle. I have been wrong on many occasions before, and this chart should not be assumed to be 100% correct. This same chart was sent to tech/a some weeks ago when I said to him  I beleive we were close to a top ( $660 level) where I liquidated my position...........................
> ................
> 
> Once again, all the above is just my opinion- based on the way I see it to date. I could be very wrong
> 
> Cheers




Wavepicker,
Thanks for one of the best posts I've read on this thread and certainly the best chart and commentary on gold that I've seen on EW recently, great proportions. Thanks very much, looks like a high probability count and 'prediction' that you've got there.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Wavepicker,
> Thanks for one of the best posts I've read on this thread and certainly the best chart and commentary on gold that I've seen on EW recently, great proportions. Thanks very much, looks like a high probability count and 'prediction' that you've got there.



Yes
Well done wavepicker.
As I work off the fundamentals, I see the EW pivots as reasonable, but the time frames and quantum too large.
First, the greenback was due to return to strength simply based on cycles - it's presently in its its strong cycle: However, I doubt it will last long and its trend is likely to be that of enduring weakness (as a result of US monetary and price inflation).
We will know after the event if POG dips under $500 and while it is possible, my targt is a dip under $650 with a possible downside risk to $600.
I note wavepicker has identified an "exhaustion" gap that needs to be filled for the $500 scenario to run to form.
My suspicion is that in a bull market that is more likely to be a breakaway gap.
Getting back to fundamentals, there are two keys:
First, supply is not presently matching demand so we are continuing to rely on above ground Central Bank sales to meet shortfalls.
Secondly, in a few months time we get into the "strong" period for gold - the northern hemisphere summer/autumn - where POG keeps running to all time highs.
This present correction was badly needed and will serve POG well into the future, as there  was little chance it could wind much higher than $720 without exhausing its support base.
Stepping right back, if one looks at what is happening in the world generally, it's pretty much business as usual.  In fact, May looks rosier than March from a production perspective, with only the inflationary specre hanging over the markets as a whole: And given high oil was the cause, the bout of profit taking on crude has knocked it below $70 again, so it's all good!


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 

I have to take issue with the *demand for gold............75%- 80% of gold demand is from retail, and retail is most definitely not buying, they are actually net sellers from the preliminary data* 

Therefore the identification of demand as a driver for increased prices of gold is simply nonsense.



It has tracked the PPI, rather than the CPI.

CPI 1950 - 1960 = 2.23%
PPI 1950 - 1960 = 2.00% = 1.11
M1 no data
Gold 1950 - 1960 = 0.00%

CPI 1960 - 1970 = 2.57%
PPI 1960 - 1970 = 1.45% = 1.77
M1 1960 - 1970 = 3.47%
Gold 1960 - 1970 = (-0.01%)

CPI 1970 - 1980 = 7.05%
PPI 1970 - 1980 = 8.84% = 0.79
M1 1970 - 1980 = 6.35%
Gold 1970 - 1980 = 34.46%

CPI 1980 - 1990 = 5.05%
PPI 1980 - 1990 = 3.03% = 1.66
M1 1980 - 1990 = 7.43%
Gold 1980 - 1990 = (-4.86%)




Therefore what is clear is that the ratio of CPI/PPI is the important factor, as when raw material costs rise and squeeze manufacturers profit margins, a downturn within the economy is possible. The factor of M1 liquidity seems irrelevant to the price of gold.

What is highly relevant however is the link with increased liquidity or cheap capital made available to business at recessionary periods.
What has happened of course is the massive liquidity engendered via the BOJ has found its way into consumer asset classes via real estate, and has thus added a new twist.

The retail trader/investor, is again late to the party if considering gold, unless you believe that that you are early enough in the cycle of the PPI, and oil might be the commodity to watch, that you will still have a long term run in gold. At $500+ you missed the boat.

Liquidity is a consequence of a growing economy. If the economy has the potential to grow, then to allow growth, there must be increased liquidity. The figures from 1980 to 1990 confirm that assertion, as liquidity grew, CPI inflation grew, but PPI or manufacturing profitability increased, thus CPI increases flowed to the corporate bottom line.

Current ratios;

CPI 2000 - 2006 = 2.8%
PPI 2000 - 2006 = 4.5% = 0.62
M1 2000 - 2006 = 3.60%
Gold 2000 - 2006 = 9.42%

Liquidity, has been slowed in its creation. Contrary to the popular press, liquidity is currently far below the aggregate of 5.21%, yet due to the falling ratio within the CPI/PPI, inflationary fears, or loss of the purchasing power of big business is the important factor.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
On the gold front you need to do a lot more work to understand the fundamentals.
Frankly, CPI, PPI and money supply data has nothing to do with the daily movements of physical metal, nor aggreagate annual physical supply and demand.
The simple maths for the past 3 years shows that mine supplies of gold were not able to meet demand for jewellery fabrication alone. Industrial and investment demand - and were are talking actual physical metal - adds another 25% to annual demand.
The physical metal shortfall is met from old gold scrap and Central Bank sales.
On the demand side of the equation, all measured sectors are in year on year inclines.  The gold ETF may skew demand for the time being, but its share of demand probably only accounts for 5% of total.
On the supply side, remove Central Bank sales from the equation, and we would see gold prices jump considerably.
Physical demand for gold ownership in the Middle East and developing countries is increasing: China has only recently opened up gold for private consumption from an investment perspective.
On the supply side, I would be grateful if you could advise of a world class gold mine that has opened in the past 3 years, or of any mooted near to medium term -  I know Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold mine comes on stream late 2008 .
ducati, you still have an opportunity to forecast gold prices beyond this year, as I could not see from your more recent posts that there were forward estimates.  You are welcome to put an economic modelling spin on the numbers, but just a simple summary is fine.
Mine is for plus$800 by years end and $1000 to be reached at some point in 2007, for starters.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*Gold * and  The  Elliott Wwave 

 an  update 

  Here are  the  original  charts # 226 -#227

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=12&pp=20


----------



## kgee

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Rederob "On the supply side, I would be grateful if you could advise of a world class gold mine that has opened in the past 3 years, or of any mooted near to medium term "

I'm not sure when Newcrests telfer dome started producing it can't have been much more than 3 years ago...it's Australia's biggest and maybe the biggest in the southern hemisphere...or has thaT been taken into consideration
Besides that there's a heap of smaller companies coming on stream
I have also read a report (I think by clive maund) that showed jewlery demand was driven by the price of gold rather than the price of gold been driven by jewlery demand...if I can find it again I will post it


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

kgee
Telfer was decommissioned in 2000 due to low gold prices and comparatively high costs.
It was officially re-opened by Premier Gallop in 2005, although was operating in November 2004.
It's a good mine, but has a lot of issues to resolve due to mineralogy.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

In addition to primary gold mines there is also the production of gold as a by-product of other metallic mining. 

For example, Zinifex Rosebery mine is primarily zinc followed by lead then copper (in volume terms) but they do produce enough gold and silver to warrant pouring their own precious metals ingots on site. Admittedly the furnace required to melt the gold and silver is pretty small - it runs from a 45kg LPG cylinder (only 5 times the size of a BBQ cylinder)  - but gold is highly valuable on a weight or volume basis and if you add up all such production worldwide then it's quite significant. 

To my understanding the mine supply of silver is predominantly a by-product of other mining. It's a less significant percentage for gold where there are more primary gold mines.

Of course, the level of production from this source depends on the level of base metals mining and so doesn't respond to the gold/silver price - hence the possibility that surging precious metals prices don't result in strong production growth.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

  Gold   Longer Term 


Another  update

Here are the original charts # 226 -#227

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/fo...6&page=12&pp=20

The Charts by *M*arketwavez are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what a given market is tracing out.
Wave counts are highly subjective, and definitely not *100%* reliable ...*Wave-counts also vary from one person to
another who may be analyzing the given market and can also vary based on the time frames being analyzed ..... *

THESE CHARTS ARE PUT HERE as a probable Elliott-Wave Count  -A sort of road map of what's going on .
*-It is not for everyone..... *
Only for those who understand that the true Holy Grail of trading is learning to manage *Risk vs Reward .*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> On the supply side, I would be grateful if you could advise of a world class gold mine that has opened in the past 3 years, or of any mooted near to medium term - I know Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold mine comes on stream late 2008 .




China; Bok Huidong
Panama; PetaQuilla minerals
Argentina; Golden Peaks Resources
Nevada USA; He5 Overman



> Frankly, CPI, PPI and money supply data has nothing to do with the daily movements of physical metal, nor aggreagate annual physical supply and demand.




On a day to day basis, of course not, but that's not what was shown was it.
Hedge Fund speculation within commodities; 1999 = $6billion, in 2006 = $140billion. This is hot money, this follows yield and absolute returns.



> On the demand side of the equation, all measured sectors are in year on year inclines. The gold ETF may skew demand for the time being, but its share of demand probably only accounts for 5% of total.




Nonsense.



> The simple maths for the past 3 years shows that mine supplies of gold were not able to meet demand for jewellery fabrication alone.




Really, where are the figures?



> ducati, you still have an opportunity to forecast gold prices beyond this year, as I could not see from your more recent posts that there were forward estimates. You are welcome to put an economic modelling spin on the numbers, but just a simple summary is fine.
> Mine is for plus$800 by years end and $1000 to be reached at some point in 2007, for starters.




2008 to 2009 = $350 to $450
For the current term, I'll stick with my previous numbers which were;



> Summarising then for ducati:
> He puts the speculative range at $418.88 to $769.00
> So, support, he would *hope* to materialize at $418.88 odd, and Resistance to materialize circa $769.00 odd. At least we got an answer, so waiting another 5 years won't be too hard now!
> Of course, what will ducati do if if gold reaches beyond $770 this year, or next (and I firmly believe it will be "next" year into the $800s)?
> No doubt he will revise his figures - but that's just speculation.




jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Physical demand for gold, and money "liquidity" are not alike.
You wrote this, " *I have to take issue with the demand for gold............75%- 80% of gold demand is from retail, and retail is most definitely not buying, they are actually net sellers from the preliminary data * ."

The paper trading of gold instruments is irrelevant to physical demand.

So let's take some of your other points.
I asked about recent or future "world class" gold mines.
You gave examples that do not cut mustard: World class means the company would be a gold mining major player, not a minnow.  You should try to back up your examples with actual or proposed annual gold output.

You reply to my claim that increasing demand in the "measured" sectors is *nonsense*.
No proof of course, but that's your typical response.
Go and find annual (physical) demand over the past 3 years for jewellery fabrication, industrial use and/or investment purposes and then post your reply.

On mine supply you ask for figures.  If you do not know what the figures are, then you should not be posting replies on this topic.

On future figures for possible gold prices I am foist on my own pettard.
I took information in your later posts which used $720 as the upside range.

Thank you for revising your out-years: I guess this thread could have long lifespan: *2008 to 2009 = $350 to $450
For the current term, I'll stick with my previous numbers which were;*


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

The following link(below) is a very interesting article by Adam Hamilton that was posted a few days ago. It talks about the fact that no bullmarket rises like an express elevator. He labels 3 different stages of a bull, and shows an interesting % analalogy of the current bulltrend with that of the 1970's.  He says we are now at what he calls stage 2 of the bulltrend. In 1974 gold peaked at $200US before correcting 2 years 50% back to $100US. This correction was the launching pad before it went ballistic in the subsequent years

I beleive Adam is correct and stage 2 is now underway. His timeframes gell with what I have previously posted in this thread.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5200.htm


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Another thing that makes me laugh is how modern players or analysts view gold as an alternative investment to the US $ and protection against inflation only, they fail to recognise a new very powerful force,

About 2.5 Billion people from China and India combined with a few thousand years of belief that gold represents a family's wealth and status,

ie If you are Asian (Chinese/Indian etc) I'm sure you'll know what I'm talking about, but for those who are in the dark, most families from these countries view gold as a good place to store family wealth, don't ask me why but one of the first things a person does from India when their income levels begin to rise is buy gold jewellery, watches, bangles (type of bracelet), chains etc etc, 

As the incomes of thse 2.5 Billion people rise slowly yet stedily we are going to see massive organic jewellery oriantated demand for the metal, so just like oil, analysts better re-write their books on prediciting gold prices,

$750 - $800 us/oz will be a good gold price to have going into the new year, anything higher is too high short term, 

LT we will definately see $1000


----------



## kgee

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

for an interesting read that backs up  what YT is saying check out
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/press.asp?rls_id=287&cat_id=6&
it's a good read


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Wave picker 

I just started reading this article that you just posted by Mr. Hamilton.

This guy in the first or second paragraph is complaining about a 5% pull back  in Gold recently.  That it hurt his investments .
Whats that tell you about his market timing? 
The time to buy gold was in 2005 when there was a strong base built into  Gold ... 
I pointed out this base very clearly right here in this forum.
Heres what it looked like .............

I think that he is a good writer but doesn't understand the importance of  buying dips, buying on pullback which is always my message.

Look here 

Why would someone subscribe to that service of his unless you were new to  trading and just didn't know any better. 

Trading is about buying low and selling high ......

How do you know  is  Low .....  (look  for sound bases to form) in the chart  pattern formation of the given market. 

What's a  base ?
Elliott waves....  beginning of  a  5th wave is one of them 
-  Double Bottom Formations. Triple Bottom Formations. The list goes on.

Look here at *Gold* last year - Aug-2005
How could so many traders miss this one?

Simple  

They are not looking for bases to form within in a chart ....
---------------------------------------------------------------------
If this Mr. Hamilton had read my post showing this base last yr and acted on  it....
There would be no need to be complaining about a 5% pullback in Gold this  past week.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> Wave picker
> 
> I just started reading this article that you just posted by Mr. Hamilton.
> 
> This guy in the first or second paragraph is complaining about a 5% pull back  in Gold recently.  That it hurt his investments .
> Whats that tell you about his market timing?
> The time to buy gold was in 2005 when there was a strong base built into  Gold ...
> I pointed out this base very clearly right here in this forum.
> Heres what it looked like .............
> 
> I think that he is a good writer but doesn't understand the importance of  buying dips, buying on pullback which is always my message.
> 
> Look here
> 
> Why would someone subscribe to that service of his unless you were new to  trading and just didn't know any better.
> 
> Trading is about buying low and selling high ......
> 
> How do you know  is  Low .....  (look  for sound bases to form) in the chart  pattern formation of the given market.
> 
> What's a  base ?
> Elliott waves....  beginning of  a  5th wave is one of them
> -  Double Bottom Formations. Triple Bottom Formations. The list goes on.
> 
> Look here at *Gold* last year - Aug-2005
> How could so many traders miss this one?
> 
> Simple
> 
> They are not looking for bases to form within in a chart ....
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
> If this Mr. Hamilton had read my post showing this base last yr and acted on  it....
> There would be no need to be complaining about a 5% pullback in Gold this  past week.




Hi marketwaves, you are right in what you say,  and that was an excellent call you made last year, well done.

As far as Adam Hamilton goes, I personally am not one of his customers, I just saw that article in passing.  I think he caters more for long term investors and he himself sounds like he is long term orientated. Nevertheless he does put forward a very constructive analysis into the 3 stages of a bullmarket, which I think anyone can find interesting and learn from. It's good to be open minded, people like him have been around this business for quite a while. Although they are not market timers( which I must say- can be a very difficult business),  they still may have a proven track record over the long term.

Interesting about gold. I went long in gold way back in April of 2001($256), and only just liquidated a month ago.

In September of 1999, gold had a very fast thrust up from nothing(250-340). This was a significant move and happened in the space of 2 months. At the time I did not append an elliott wave label to this upward move, thinking that it was just another bear move. What happened after that was gift, the subsequent move down took 1.5 yrs( 9 times as long) to move back to make a double bottom. This was a real struggle down!!! It was real choppy, overlapping decline. Recognotion of this sort of move really seperates novices from the experienced. The first thing an elliott wave practioner has to master is the difference between an impulse and a correction. If this cannot been done succesfully, then applying elliott is difficult. Now that was a correction if I ever saw one!!!

I labelled this a wave 2 for several reasons:-

-The first was as per I explained above
-The second was sentiment. Believe it or not, the pessimism at the bottom of this wave to was far greater even than the start of wave 1!!!! I remember the financial press really bashing gold back then saying that it was a financial relic with no commercial future. This was the dot. com era and economists were saying "this time it's different" It just went on and on. The same sort of pessimism was evident in the US Dollar in Dec 2004 before it started a rally. 
- Most if not all oscillators were showing a bullish divergence (see monthly chart below)

Now it was very hard to trade wave 1 in this instance, especially if you were long term focused.  it is very difficult also to trade  a wave 2. All that is needed from us as traders is to observe were wave 2 finishes!! That is it. The buy signal for this trade came in at the bottom of wave 2. (Richkid- study those notes)

May the wave guide your trade to all!!


----------



## coyotte

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

why would traders be wasting time on trying to pick the tops of POG

KISS --- just ride your selected miners to the top and sell @ the stop loss
Then renter for next roller coaster ride --- far more profitable to concertrate on the TRADE than the underlying asset

i have a suspision that the majority of traders who post about their $10,000 plus positions are more likely to be holding min postions --- otherwise whats $40
 out and in --- peanuts to what could be lost in even a $2000 trade


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I  totally  disagree  with  this  guy Hamilton .............

    His  work  is  over  written  also ....Less  is  sometimes best . 

 You  cant  write long  episodes -
  and  expect  to  keep  most  peoples  interest !
His  main  problem  is  he  is  paying  attention  to  Lagging  indicators

  He  makes  refrence  to  the  200day moving  averages -  
  well  guess   what? ...... Thats  a  lagging  indicator ....

  You cannot  watch  the  westrern  oscillators  and  expect to do  well .

  again  simply  because  they are  all   lagging  indicators 

------------------------------------------------------------------

*THE  NAME  OF  THE B GAME  IS  TO  FIND  A SOUND BASE BEFORE THEY BREAK OUT*- If  a  market  breaks  out  its  too  late .

*How  many  times  must I  bring  this  simple  message  to  the  table ?*

* G*old  has  no  base built into right now ....
 Long  Term or Short term... It's  the  simple  truth ....


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

You  see this  chart-
  it  is  a  great   example of base building 

  I  have  posted  it  before  

  Here  it  is  again ..................... 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

 How  well  would  a trader  have  done  looking  at Gold  from this  perspective ?
How  many  times  do  you  see  here that a  trader could  have had to get in ?


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Wait a minute here Wave picker 

Am I reading what you said in the above post right ? 
You bought Gold in *2001* and held it to *April  of  2006*?

LET'S PUT THIS IN ITS PROPER PERSPECTIVE .................

.........................................................................................................
Well,  I think every Gold trader in here should be listening to you very closely  and checking out the Elliott Waves. 
After that - Throw out all the News & Turn off the T.V. - This is  no laughing matter.

You have just cashed in one of the best bull runs in the history of Gold, since  what happend in the 1970's ......  

---------------------------------------------------------------------
As for me I started learning ElliottWaves in 2002.... so naturally at that time  I was already a year too late  ......

I NOW SEE YOU AND YOUR WORK IN AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT LIGHT NOW ....  MORE  IMPORTANTLY, YOUR  COMMITMENT IS TO BE COMMENDED  SERIOUSLY.  THIS IS A 5 YEAR HOLDING PERIOD OF  GOLD.

YOU GUYS OUT THERE, WATCH - WAVE-PICKER..............
SEEK OUT HIS WORDS 

THEY WILL HELP YOU IN THE LONG RUN ....................

Put down the news -  
Find and read all you can about Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Retracements.

This chart below shows the power of when Wavepicker bought into  Gold.  There was a serious wedge formation that had formed in 2001.

Cast  your  eyes  to  where  you  see  2001  at  the  bottom  of  the  chart.

He held on to Gold until last month when he liquidated....

- Do you see what I am saying about the greatest bull run in Gold since the bull run of the 1970 's 

Then why wouldn't you want to listen to what Wavepicker is saying ? 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remember he is doing this with an outlook of utilizing a tool called Elliott  Waves.... with  no  software...  What  does  that  tell  you ?  

*  -WAKE  UP  FOLKS  ........  PLEASE  WAKE UP ! *


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> I  totally  disagree  with  this  guy Hamilton .............
> 
> His  work  is  over  written  also ....Less  is  sometimes best .
> 
> You  cant  write long  episodes -
> and  expect  to  keep  most  peoples  interest !
> His  main  problem  is  he  is  paying  attention  to  Lagging  indicators
> 
> He  makes  refrence  to  the  200day moving  averages -
> well  guess   what? ...... Thats  a  lagging  indicator ....
> 
> You cannot  watch  the  westrern  oscillators  and  expect to do  well .
> 
> again  simply  because  they are  all   lagging  indicators
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> *THE  NAME  OF  THE B GAME  IS  TO  FIND  A SOUND BASE BEFORE THEY BREAK OUT*- If  a  market  breaks  out  its  too  late .
> 
> *How  many  times  must I  bring  this  simple  message  to  the  table ?*
> 
> * G*old  has  no  base built into right now ....
> Long  Term or Short term... It's  the  simple  truth ....




Very True marketwavez,
they are lagging indicators. But they can also be used as leading indicators as well(bullmarket knows what I am talking about) with some imagination. This will also lead to subjectivess as does with using Elliott.

The problem with most folks using MA's today is that they do not really know what the MA is a represention of. *An MA is a simple cutoff filter*. The line you see in the MA is the sum of all the cycles(cyclicalities) above the period you have selected or the cutoff. Now if you subtract the MA from the price you end up with the opposite, You end up with the sum of the cycles that the filter threw away in the first instance or under the cuttoff you have selected. This is the inverse of the original MA. Simply checking the phase relationship of these 2 lines will give much information. Centering an MA first before using it is the key

There are other low lag filters such as WMA (digital filter which is what I use) and adaptive MA's

go to MESA Software, John Ehlers has some very interesting papers there on MA's, so has Dennis Meyers at his website


Cheers


----------



## tech/a

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> Wait a minute here Wave picker
> 
> Am I reading what you said in the above post right ?
> You bought Gold in 2001 and held it to April of 2006 ..
> 
> LET'S PUT THIS IN ITS PROPER PERSPECTIVE .................
> 
> .................................................. .................................................. .....
> Well , I think every Gold trader in here should be listening to you very closely and checking out the Elliott Waves .
> After that - Throw out all the News .& Turn off the T.V. - This is no laughing matter .
> 
> You have just cashed in one of the best bull runs in the history of Gold , since what happend in the 1970's ......




Hmm my suspicion grows,you seem to work as a tag team.
Given some complements on your charting all of a sudden this has un leashed a spate of posts with copious amounts of "Look at me look at me"


*The analysis is great why cant it be presented without the chest beating??*


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> ducati
> Physical demand for gold, and money "liquidity" are not alike.
> You wrote this, " I have to take issue with the demand for gold............75%- 80% of gold demand is from retail, and retail is most definitely not buying, they are actually net sellers from the preliminary data ."
> 
> The paper trading of gold instruments is irrelevant to physical demand.




Which I am not referring to.
*Retail* are the peasants going out to buy their gold bangle etc.
The preliminary data shows that they are *net sellers* viz. converting their little stash of gold into cash.



> So let's take some of your other points.
> I asked about recent or future "world class" gold mines.
> You gave examples that do not cut mustard: World class means the company would be a gold mining major player, not a minnow. You should try to back up your examples with actual or proposed annual gold output.




Boka Huidong; multi-million oz deposit.
PetaQuilla; 7 separate high grade *mineral* deposits
Golden Peaks; new deposits within an area that has provided large output.



> You reply to my claim that increasing demand in the "measured" sectors is nonsense.
> No proof of course, but that's your typical response.
> Go and find annual (physical) demand over the past 3 years for jewellery fabrication, industrial use and/or investment purposes and then post your reply.




You need to learn to read.
My reply of nonsense was to your ill-informed and incorrect assertion that the Gold ETF accounts for 5% of physical demand. Your memory also seems to need checking, as I have already posted the factual figures in a previous post.

Contrary to your assertion, I include figures, facts, and evidence. Your posts by comparison are simply opinion devoid of any figures that provide any evidence of your assertion. From pg12;



> Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.
> 
> Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.
> 
> The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.
> 
> It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,” Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.





> On mine supply you ask for figures. If you do not know what the figures are, then you should not be posting replies on this topic.




I would like some evidence to support your assertion.
At the moment your lips are flapping, there's lots of noise, very little evidence.



> On future figures for possible gold prices I am foist on my own pettard.
> I took information in your later posts which used $720 as the upside range.




$720, $769, who cares, $49 either way is not a big deal between friends.

Moving forward, regarding the speculative component;
You can calculate a 50% premium within commodities that have a futures contract associated with them, gold, of course being one of them.
The implication being that the $140 billion of speculative money is driving the froth. If that money moves elsewhere, the so called *fundamentals* will evaporate in exactly the same way as the *dot.com* bubble, where there was additionally only speculative excess, and no fundamental demand to support the high valuations.

Many of the funds speculating in the commodities markets are trying to take their profits with a *backwardation* strategy. This month, they lost 6.4% in a contango situation, how long will they wish to hang on? Who knows, but that's speculation for you.

You need to raise your game, I'm starting to get bored with nothing but opinion, I like to see analysis.
I'm more than happy to see analysis that contradicts or refutes my own, as I may learn something, but currently this is just not the case.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You re-entered this topic based on "demand".
You talk about liquidity.
The physical demand figures are vailable if you want to find them.
I suggest you do before being so knowledgeable.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Hmm my suspicion grows,you seem to work as a tag team.
> Given some complements on your charting all of a sudden this has un leashed a spate of posts with copious amounts of "Look at me look at me"
> 
> 
> *The analysis is great why cant it be presented without the chest beating??*





Tech/a,

There is a difference. I have nothing to sell, ie course or subscriptions etc, and have no intentions to do so. I am just like you, I am here to learn, and post anything that may help others from my experiences both good and bad.

That is why I have been reluctant to post charts on this site in the past, and probably will be in the future. Time is precious, because there is not a lot of it availble to me. That's why I have chosen in the past to just focus on my account, and forget the forums.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Your presentation of data on physical demand is lacking here, but you opened the door, so you should have had the numbers to support your case.
The World Gold Council is the industry body that is the recognised source of supply and demand data for gold.
In relation to my question about what world class mines were opened or are to be opened you have named some companies/mines that, were their full resource base to be mined tomorrow, would possibly add a few percent to total annual supply:  In the greater scheme of gold mines, none are likely to be on the radar of serious gold bulls.
Your information on the gold ETF is spot on, but mine supply (2355tonnes in 2005) is only one part of the total equation (3860tonnes in 2005).
Last year the Streetracks ETF accounted for 203tonnes of demand, which removed slightly more than 5% of gold from suppliers; and your claim is that this is *nonsense * -  perhaps by being a fraction of a percentage point out it is nonsense!
ducati, as you don't seem to be able to come to grips with the fact that physical demand year on year over recent years is greater than supply, it might be best you put your talents to use elsewhere.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 

Marvellous stuff..........amazing what a kick up the **** can achieve.
I shall peruse your numbers and come back to you in due course.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 

Gold mine production = 2,518 tonnes
Recycled gold = 800 tonnes
Central Banks = 552 tonnes
Total = 3870 tonnes

Total end use consumption = 3754.3 tonnes

Therefore we have a surplus of 115.7 tonnes

However the interesting figures are of course;
Reduction in Total end use consumption of 15%....demand is falling.
Jewellery has fallen by 15% (this being the biggest net end user)
Investment uses of gold has fallen by 25%
ETF demand has fallen by 30%

All in all demand looks soft, and anaemic within the investment community specifically.
We therefore have the classic supply/demand dynamic, falling demand in the face of higher prices.......just as gold producers start to ramp up their investment to increase production........classic bust.

To protect their investment, I would expect to see some producers re-instate hedges, increasing the selling pressure, with a stall in price, or falling prices just watch the speculative money bail out...........thats when you'll see the collapse in price.

So what you'll possibly see in the next few months is ever increasing volatility, as speculation runs riot, the volatility will scare out any marginal traders as margin calls will either bust them out, or send them running for the hills, leaving just the big boys, who with the absence of the greater fool theory will start to move to pastures new. This increasingly will force producers who have not hedged, to hedge, or risk new production at a net loss, this will be the final nail in the coffin.

Regarding India & China driving demand......I don't think so. As previously stated, the individuals who buy jewellery either cannot afford it at current prices, so you lose their demand, or they are net sellers.



> A feature of Indian demand is its extreme sensitivity to price volatility – this is the country where that factor is of most importance in affecting gold demand.
> 
> Over half of demand comes from rural or rural town areas. Demand here is largely traditional. It is affected by incomes and thus the quality of the monsoon is important. In these areas gold is also important as a means of saving – a gold chain or bangle which can be worn on the person is considered a relatively safe way of storing wealth.




The same will hold for China. As for Central Banks being buyers at these prices, nonsense, they will be sellers, they can always replace their stocks at lower prices.

As with any speculative medium, when price rises faster than growth in profit, the result is always a return to fair value and below. Demand has fallen by 15%..........price is still +70%............look out below.

jog on
d998


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

0200 GMT [Dow Jones] Gold expected to consolidate in $625-$675 band
underpinned by global tensions, high energy prices, volatility in global markets, especially currencies, says Rothschild Australia. Most analysts saying
buying on dips remains name of game, but as UBS says: "we are not convinced we have found one yet."(JAD)


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You seem to have a lot of trouble getting published numbers to match your assertions here.
As I said previously, Central Bank sales have given rise to gold supply surpluses: Their amount of gold is finite so can only "tighten" the fundamentals as time goes by.
Demand has increased by 600tonnes in the 2 years to 2005 so Iwould be reluctant to call it anaemic.
Jewellery demand has increased annually as shown in the table below: By the way, jewellery demand is often counter-intuitive in that the higher its price, the more it is wanted. As India has a middle class population the size of America's, gold jewellery demand in that nation will increase into the foreseeable future.
Little of your interpretation stacks up with the last 3 years data on physical supply and demand.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> ducati
> You seem to have a lot of trouble getting published numbers to match your assertions here.




Nonsense, the figures come from your own data;
Jewellery consumption, from Q4 2004 to Q4 2005 has fallen 15%
All the other figures also come from your own data.



> As I said previously, Central Bank sales have given rise to gold supply surpluses: Their amount of gold is finite so can only "tighten" the fundamentals as time goes by.




Again only part of the story. The supply from the jewellrey segment has gone as high as 1150 tonnes as people sell it off. Therefore there is plenty of overhead supply completely independent of the Central Banks.
Of course as Investment demand dries up, the supply/demand dynamic alters further in favour of supply. From history, the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, supply came out of the woodwork, and they got handed their lunch.




> Demand has increased by 600tonnes in the 2 years to 2005 so Iwould be reluctant to call it anaemic.




Investment demand has atrophied by 25%......that's anaemic in my book.
As speculative money is withdrawn, so the demand will further decrease.



> As good as its word, the Bank of Japan has been taking huge amounts of liquidity out of the global capital markets. In an effort to re-inflate the Japanese economy and end the years of deflation that had kept the country mired in a no-growth swamp, the Bank of Japan had pumped billions into the country's banking system. Now that the economy is finally growing again and now that prices aren't sinking any longer, the Bank of Japan has given two cheers to the return of inflation and has started to remove some of that cash from the financial markets.
> 
> In the last two months, the bank has taken almost 16 trillion yen, or about $140 billion, in cash deposits out of the country's banks. The country's money supply has fallen by almost 10%. The Bank of Japan isn't finished pumping out the liquidity that it had pumped in. That should take a few more months. And when it is finished, the Bank of Japan is expected to start raising short-term interest rates.




Thus the hot money that was flowing into all types of asset classes, gold being one of them, will see the loss of that buying pressure & momentum. You will have profit taking, some buying support in anticipation of a trend continuation, sucking in the fools, and then price collapse, repeat until it again hits the long term trend of 2.5% price appreciation at circa $350 - $450

Gold at these levels becomes pure speculation, and is governed inexorably by the laws of speculation.



> Jewellery demand has increased annually as shown in the table below: By the way, jewellery demand is often counter-intuitive in that the higher its price, the more it is wanted. As India has a middle class population the size of America's, gold jewellery demand in that nation will increase into the foreseeable future.




Absolute nonsense.
Demand as measured by $demand, which is simply due to the astronomically high price, but demand for the physical has shrunk by 15%
Further the previous quote regarding India originates from your highly touted World Gold.




> Little of your interpretation stacks up with the last 3 years data on physical supply and demand.




3yrs ago the price wasn't at $700
At that price, the demand trend changes quite significantly, and none of it particularly indicates higher prices. Commodities are highly price sensitive. A trend by definition is a prediction, and must be either right or wrong 50/50.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
I will leave my posts and tabled data for others to interpret.
You continue to obfuscate as you wish.
I won't indulge in selective, deceptive and misinterpretative practices to make my points.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> ducati
> I will leave my posts and tabled data for others to interpret.
> You continue to obfuscate as you wish.
> I won't indulge in selective, deceptive and misinterpretative practices to make my points.




Sob, sob.
You're hurting my feelings now. All after sending me a mocking PM requesting an update to my original analysis, you are now jumping ship. Abandoning all the charties to negotiate the volatility without the razor insights into the fundamentals of gold.

With regards to the *numbers* they are taken from the information you so kindly provided on the data pertaining to gold supply/demand on pg24 of this thread

I would have thought the numbers were clear enough. After not *liking* my numbers, now you don't even *like* your own numbers.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
The numbers are not *my * numbers - they are there for anyone that goes to the Wold Gold Council site.
You continue to blur money with physical - there is a link but the two data sets need to be interpreted separately.
A key driver of gold's price into the future will be mine supply falling significantly short of physical demand.
How many commodities are there in such short supply and of such value that banks have to release supplies to the market, and individuals are willing to sell their jewellery (so it can be melted down) for cash.
Yes ducati, I did PM you and ask you to revise your gold forecasts.
I have little doubt that by October this year we will have $800 gold.
I also know that the next major retrace is likely to be more severe than the present one.
I remain a conservative gold bull at this stage, but I also like to keep my position intelligible and simple.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> ducati
> The numbers are not my numbers - they are there for anyone that goes to the Wold Gold Council site.




Just so, and those are the numbers that I am working from, and they show into 2005 Q4, a rather large decline in demand across the board, well save industrial useage.



> You continue to blur money with physical - there is a link but the two data sets need to be interpreted separately.




Nonsense.
If you cannot differentiate the references from my posts, then there is no hope.



> A key driver of gold's price into the future will be mine supply falling significantly short of physical demand.




And this is where we disagree.
Investment in the production of the physical is ramping up due to the high spot & futures price, but, demand is falling away, thus you have a classic over supply situation in the making.



> How many commodities are there in such short supply and of such value that banks have to release supplies to the market, and individuals are willing to sell their jewellery (so it can be melted down) for cash.




Gold is classically *SPECULATIVE* which is what I have maintained all along. With speculation comes all the classic boom...bust scenario's. You have the classic, buy low, sell high........the Banks see it, the peasants see it, yet you are determined to buy high, in anticipation of a greater fool buying even higher...............so be it.




> Yes ducati, I did PM you and ask you to revise your gold forecasts.
> I have little doubt that by October this year we will have $800 gold.
> I also know that the next major retrace is likely to be more severe than the present one.




Well we may, or we may not.
That's speculation.
What we don't have however is any *fundamental reason* for gold to be $800oz




> I remain a conservative gold bull at this stage, but I also like to keep my position intelligible and simple.




And you're confused as to whether I am a bull on gold, or a bear?
In that case I suggest you seek professional help.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
I don't have a concern about you being a bull or a bear - it is not relevant to my analysis.
What is important is using the information to make a correct or wise decision.
Your reply is again typically of no value to anyone looking at the trend in supply and demand of physical gold.
If you are right then gold will *not * be $800 this year, posssibly at all.
I see no point in further discussing the data tabled a few posts earlier as it speaks for itself, and I believe the average reader will have no difficulty working out what has happened, and what will continue to happen if the trends continue.


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I'm going to add my    here from a completely non financial viewpoint.

As an anthropologist I am constantly amazed by the importance that is placed on jewelry and gold products throughout almost every culture on the planet.  India in particular has a very long standing relationship with gold that transcends financial matters and enters almost into the realm of religion (and in many cases enters this realm directly).  With a growing middle class in India, a rapidly growing one at that, the consumption of gold jewelry can only grow UNLESS the Indian culture changes substantially....obviously this is not going to happen in the next couple of decades; if ever.

Now what does this mean...well, since India at the moment accounts for about a quarter of the gold consumption in the world, AND India's population is growing MUCH FASTER than China.  India will within our lifetimes be the most populated country in the world, and they also happen to be the most gold hungry country in the world.  There is your FUNDAMENTAL REASON for gold prices steadily climbing I believe over at least the next 10 years - and quite possibly continuing to climb for far longer than that.  $800 an ounce is nothing to somebody who's culture dictates they must have these things to gain social standing in a culture where social standing means more than almost anything.  Added to this, gold in India is OFTEN BOUGHT BY WEIGHT, therefore the typical jewelers mark up does not take place and therefore spot prices can go higher than you expect before people are priced out of the market......and as for being priced out of the market, if something is that important culturally the price will not be a concern - and in fact THE HIGHER THE PRICE GOES THE MORE CULTURALLY DESIRABLE IT WILL BECOME.

I'm serious, wait until this years Indian wedding season at the end of the year (but in particular in about 2 or 3 years) to see what happens....then read this post again  :     

p.s. Rederob, I agree with your analysis....hehe, thought I should add some fuel to that fire


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

1254 [Dow Jones]TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Gold (last $666.10/oz) hit $636.5 low 2 days ago, near $632.33 50% retracement of $534.15-$730.50 advance, and formed bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Currently, daily chart slightly bullish biased with stochastic staging positive crossover near oversold level; MACD still in bearish mode but negative MACD histogram bars contracting, pointing to waning downside momentum; may test resistance at $674.80 (May 16 low), breach of which exposes further upside towards resistance at $698.00 (marked by downtrend line from $730.50 peak) and $717.00 (May 17 high) thereafter. Any close below $636.5 will abort current bullish biased outlook, suggest recent downtrend has resumed. (LST)


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

0413 GMT [Dow Jones] ABN Amro Morgans stays bullish gold despite metal falling off 26-year high of $730/oz in recent weeks to $665 now, in line with commodity-wide correction; as part of across-board metal price upgrades, expects gold to average $670 this year, $750 next, with successful assault on $800 perhaps in early 2007, before cycle turns over. Bullishness based on possible rebuild of some central bank holdings plus geopolitical, inflation tensions, mine supply constraints.(JAD)


----------



## coyotte

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I obviously have been interpreting the the driver/ co-driver of POG wrongly

was always under the impression that it was Liquidity --- (Pecieved or Actual)
and/or Confidence in the underlying currency

eg: in times of world conflict POG rises (relative to the nations involved currencies)because it is pecieved those nations will need extra cash. 

@ times of actual increase in liquidty, POG  along with hard assets (real estate, art etc) also rise

the co/driver takes over when confidence in a nations currency either gains or falters -- if the $au was to = $us 2.00 then POG in Oz terms would meaningless.


Since all the Gold mined even before the Pharoses, is still around in some form  can't  see how supply could be  a driver   --- read a couple of years ago that the total Mkt cap of G/miners was less than McDonalds  --- if gold was in short supply one would presume that CBs would simply buy the lot out, with loose change !


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> Gold Supply and Demand – Q1 2006
> Total identified demand for gold in the first quarter reached 835.7 tonnes, worth $ 14.9 billion
> 
> This represented year-on-year growth of 9% in dollar terms, but a decline of 16% in tonnage terms in the face of a quarterly average price that has increased by 30% since Q1 2005
> 
> Of all main categories of demand, investment in gold ETFs was the strongest source of growth, at 23%, followed by industrial demand which increased by 5% relative to Q1 2005 (both in tonnage terms)




Unfortunately I cannot grab the table, but *Bar Hoarding* has dropped by 54% into Q1 2006.

ETF demand, is up, but as this is *SPECULATIVE demand* this will be subject to speculative revision, which means it can change as quickly as the wind. The overall numbers are not painting a pretty picture from a demand point of view.

Jewellery consumption *drops 22%* so those Indians seemingly disagree about gold being an investment at any price!



> India is the world’s largest gold jewellery market by volume accounting for around 590 tonnes of consumption demand in 2005. Traditionally gold is 22 carat. Gold jewellery buying is associated with a number of festivals and, in particular, with weddings. The gold given at weddings is important for women as it traditionally remains her property. For festivals, Diwali is a traditional gold giving occasion. Akshaya Tritya has become important in the south, encouraged by WGC promotions.
> 
> A feature of Indian demand is its extreme sensitivity to price volatility – this is the country where that factor is of most importance in affecting gold demand.
> 
> Over half of demand comes from rural or rural town areas. Demand here is largely traditional. It is affected by incomes and thus the quality of the monsoon is important. In these areas gold is also important as a means of saving – a gold chain or bangle which can be worn on the person is considered a relatively safe way of storing wealth.
> 
> In urban areas demand is more influenced by western tastes. Like similar markets, gold here faces competition not just from other forms of jewellery but also from the broader competitive set of luxury goods, electronics and consumer services. Promotion is thus important in order to maintain and boost demand.




So, basically your argument, according to World Gold, is nonsense.

jog on
d998


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*watches Ducati stroke his own ego over and over again....wonders why somebody gets so worked up over gold price analysis*


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Play with the number to your heart's content.
Year on year total demand has increased noticably.
Year on year mine supply is relatively unchanged, and despite your assertions of ramped up output (and given this "ramp up" has been in place for over 3 years) there is no evidence to date that a difference is made.
An important reason here is due to average grades, which are at historical all time lows.  This means it is possible to significantly increase mined ore, and this happenng, without increasing average gold output.
Mine supply is not enough to meet jewellery fabrication alone.
To meet other demand, old gold and Central Banks offer it into the market. 
The "liquidity" issue realates to how much people are willing to pay for gold.
In very simple terms, while mine supply is in deficit, people will be willing to pay enough for individual gold owners to bring out their old gold and sell it.
The "speculative" demand for physical gold is largely confined to ETFs.
Speculation over the price of gold in the market via futures or other financial instruments can be linked back to the physical demand situation, but of itself is an insignificant driver of actual physical demand. Can that be true? The answer is if you needed gold for jewellery and industrial uses *only*, then then mine supply would not be adequate.
One needs to have an open mind to the role of physical demand on the price of gold, as the traditional laws of supply and demand will always outweigh the temporary influences of sheer speculation.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*LPA* 

I can see that you are cognitively challenged.

*rederob* 



> Year on year total demand has increased noticably.




Incorrect.



> Gold Supply and Demand – Q1 2006
> Total identified demand for gold in the first quarter reached 835.7 tonnes, worth $ 14.9 billion
> 
> This represented year-on-year growth of 9% in dollar terms, but a decline of 16% in tonnage terms in the face of a quarterly average price that has increased by 30% since Q1 2005




From the figures, that originate from World Gold, your preferred reference, we can see that your assertion is nonsense.

Within the next quote, from yourself, again you need to pay attention to the *details* as your work is becoming increasingly shoddy;



> Year on year mine supply is relatively unchanged, and despite your assertions of ramped up output (and given this "ramp up" has been in place for over 3 years) there is no evidence to date that a difference is made.




Pay attention to the words *ramped up output* 



> Investment in the production of the physical is ramping up due to the high spot & futures price, but, demand is falling away, thus you have a classic over supply situation in the making.




You see.........*Investment of the production of the physical is ramping up* investment must always preceed actual production. Production is lagging. Production may hit full stride, only for demand to have shrunk. 



> Mine supply is not enough to meet jewellery fabrication alone.
> To meet other demand, old gold and Central Banks offer it into the market.
> The "liquidity" issue realates to how much people are willing to pay for gold.
> In very simple terms, while mine supply is in deficit, people will be willing to pay enough for individual gold owners to bring out their old gold and sell it.




This is where the *price* may well be decided.
I do not see that price much above the $350 - $450 range 



> The "speculative" demand for physical gold is largely confined to ETFs.




Incorrect.
$140 billion in speculative money entered commodities (futures markets) and a % of that money will be in Gold. One of the strategies they play, is the *backwardation* strategy, this last month they lost 6.4% on a *contango* situation. An anomaly? Possibly. Will they continue to subsidise the high price of gold in a contango situation? I doubt it, thus as they liquidate, price falls.

Where will the volume of speculative money come from to prop up, or take the price to $800+ come from, if, this money goes elsewhere?



> Speculation over the price of gold in the market via futures or other financial instruments can be linked back to the physical demand situation, but of itself is an insignificant driver of actual physical demand. Can that be true? The answer is if you needed gold for jewellery and industrial uses only, then then mine supply would not be adequate.




Well for 20+yrs, the price of gold poodled along quite happily at the equilibrium prices. It was only speculation that inflated the bubble prices that we have seen currently. Remove the speculative excess, and have a return to equilibrium, and my range would be $350-$450



> One needs to have an open mind to the role of physical demand on the price of gold, as the traditional laws of supply and demand will always outweigh the temporary influences of sheer speculation.




Timeframe.
Fundamentals play out over longer periods.
Speculation, is the fast crowd.
When *price* speeds up............speculative interests are present.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You continue to selectively use quarterly data to prove short term facts, rather than isolate and understand trends. I carry no truck with shysters that try to claim 3 months data is indicative of a full year on year change 
All readers must by now be quite convinced of your ploy.
Investment in gold production is occurring, but as average head grades are declining, the mine supply data shows a fall of almost 100tonnes in the 2 years to 2005.  Your evidence of "a classic oversupply in the making" is supported where?
Again, readers will be aware that gold byproduct credit has been increasing in the past few years as base metal production globally has been ramped up.  Yet in 2 years of data, no evidence that mine supply is increasing!
With luck the penny may drop, and you could come to grips with true fundamental supply and demand factors.
Then again, as you seem more inclined to defend irrelevances here, I am probably wasting my time.


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I agree that you are wasting your time Rederob, but thanks for the analysis as I found the data interesting.

*post edited* I unfortunately got caught up in the childish sentiments being displayed by a certain member and this post was just a return of insult to try and 'prove' something....it's not worth it, so I deleted it. *


----------



## tech/a

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

LPA

Frankly the discussion with rederob and ducati is interesting.
opposing views bring out more info that those in agreement.

Duc's not stroking his ego!!

Right or wrong he is presenting HIS view.
as is rederob,we can then take what we want from each,to question,learn from or act upon.

Neither Duc or rederob have resorted to personal clashes--yet you have?


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*sigh* ok.....I'm a bad boy.

But if you consider somebody constantly referring to someone else's argument as nonsense, and having a tone of absolute arrogance about them to be conducive to good debate then I guess I wasted a lot of time doing debating in high school....

Anyway, I'm new here and don't want to end up the mangy dog that people can kick around - so I'm dropping this now and will stop posting in this thread.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Thats duc's style he does it to me all the time.

I used to have good self esteem but now!!!

Would certainly have a debate pepped up with duc involved.


----------



## LPA

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Thanks for that, I'll keep it in mind


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

tech/a and LPA
The trick is to avoid cenceptual confusion and isolate the key drivers of trends.
It is not useful to discuss *liquidity * in fundamental supply/demand scenarios unless there are no buyers because there is no money, or because the product prices itself out of the market.
As the data clearly shows, jewellery fabricators cannot rely on mine supply for their entire gold needs.
Jewellery is basic to every known culture, and gold jewellery demand has been rising as both populations increase, and the wealth of populations increase.
It is unlikely that jewellery demand can be stemmed unless the gold price literally prices individual purchases out of the market - and this will probably occur for a short period of time before gold goes parabolic and collapses on itself.
All markets are prone to speculative interest, and gold is no exception.
Speculative interest does not imply demand, merely that demand can be speculated for self interest.
If you removed every speculator from the gold market, what interest would there be in purchasing gold?
The *demand * figures previously tabled provide an answer.
The next question becomes one relating to how much one should pay for gold.
Without speculators, is there greater demand than there is supply?
From this point one can start developing market pricing models: In fact, these scenarios are the bread and butter of commerce.
I won't play games with tabled information that is obvious to interpret, because it demeans readers.
I just caution readers to take care that what is being stated anywhere is fair, valid, and reliable.
Being human comes with a warning.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Interesting, GOLD coming up as 5th most popular sell on commsec.


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Interesting, GOLD coming up as 5th most popular sell on commsec.



Mark
These are the times when it's best to buy.
Preferably when gold is the number one sell.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Not real keen on the physical myself. Prefer companies which have the potential for explosive drilling results.

Check out CRE:

26 Apr 2006 14:08	! 	High Grade Discovery at Castaway

I think there is potential for significant resource upgrade as the highest grades were on the open side of the drilling program.

Having said that, I think this gold retracement may have a little further to run. But when crude starts to go up with the upcoming hurricane season, gold should start to move up again.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

http://www.gold.org/pr_archive/pdf/GDT_1Q06_pr.pdf

Gold demand and production. Facts and figures. I believe the jewelry demand pull back (due to the price run up) will be somewhat temporary. People will get used to paying more for gold.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

If $630 is breached is the next support level $550? That will test some nerves.


----------



## phoenixrising

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> If $630 is breached is the next support level $550? That will test some nerves.




And that by my reckoning is the 200 day ema.
That should trigger substantial buying especialy in the US


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

200dEMA is <$525
Still a long way down

According to Adam Hamilton:


> "If gold corrected to near its 200dma in the last Stage Two no less than every single time, isn't there at least some small chance that it will correct to its 200dma today after its first Stage Two upleg this time around? If so, then we are in for one wicked correction, because today gold's 200dma is under $525!"




http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton051906.html

This guy recommended investing at commodities in April 2001 (i was reading his article the other day) at a time when every1 was buying dot.coms and commodity prices were at multi-decade lows... a smart cookie...


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> The trick is to avoid cenceptual confusion and isolate the key drivers of trends.
> It is not useful to discuss liquidity in fundamental supply/demand scenarios unless there are no buyers because there is no money, or because the product prices itself out of the market.




Which is a definite problem.
GDP per capita of India is $3,500
GDP per capita of China is $6,300
GDP per capita of USA is $42,000

Therefore at anything above your $350-$450 price, you can forget about any fundamental demand, as, they simply cannot afford gold at levels above this.



> As the data clearly shows, jewellery fabricators cannot rely on mine supply for their entire gold needs.




And as the data clearly indicates, there is no requirement for it, as YOY, demand is falling, since 2004 Q4, it has fallen 37% 

Gold mine production = 2,518 tonnes
Recycled gold = 800 tonnes
Central Banks = 552 tonnes
Total = 3870 tonnes

Total end use consumption = 3870 tonnes
Therefore, subtract 37% from 3870 and you have 2438.1 tonnes of total demand.

With total mine production totaling 2,518 tonnes, less, 2438.1 tonnes, we now have a *production surplus of 79.9 tonnes* 

If, production investment has taken place, to increase physical supply, then you will have a further overhang, and further price pressure.
Should producers start to reinstigate hedges, then the selling pressure will be sharp, rather than incremental...........Speculators can play the market both ways, and momentum could accelerate the downside.



> Jewellery is basic to every known culture, and gold jewellery demand has been rising as both populations increase, and the wealth of populations increase.




But again this is not the whole story;



> Over half of demand comes from rural or rural town areas. Demand here is largely traditional. It is affected by incomes and thus the quality of the monsoon is important. In these areas gold is also important as a means of saving – a gold chain or bangle which can be worn on the person is considered a relatively safe way of storing wealth.
> 
> In urban areas demand is more influenced by western tastes. Like similar markets, gold here faces competition not just from other forms of jewellery but also from the broader competitive set of luxury goods, electronics and consumer services. Promotion is thus important in order to maintain and boost demand






> Without speculators, is there greater demand than there is supply?




The simple answer is no. Supply exceeds demand. Add in the speculators, and you still have supply exceeding demand, although it's pretty close.
Which really equates to therefore, speculation (speculative demand) currently driving the price. If speculative buying changes to speculative selling, then, $550 won't hold either, you'll be looking closer to $300+

The falling away of jewellery demand is world wide, save China.
Without the speculative demand, anaemia baby!
And this is in the face of reduced selling by Central Banks for timing reasons.
Should the Central Banks resume sales, not good for the longs.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
Your data distortions are mind numbing.
To the extent that if you believe what you trot out you deserve what the market will throw back in your face.

Let's look at the per capita income case presented by ducati.
If I am correct, his point is that Americans can afford to buy a lot more gold than Indians or Chinese.
He's right, they can and they do.  Americans per capita possess 1.41 grams of gold - for a population of 300 million - giving rise to total personal ownership of about 425 million grams.
Indians have a per capita ownership of 0.73 grams - for a population of 1.1 billion - giving rise to over 800 million grams: Almost twice the total ownership of American citizens.
Ducati has called my analysis shoddy in the past.  
I do not however mislead people into thinking that income dictates demand: It is a factor, but there are other factors that have great importance and must not be ignored.
To remove the egg from his face, ducati should now extrapolate the differential of income growth between USA and India to determine which nation is likely to have a greater impact on gold demand going forward.
Ideally he can also look at their comparative population growth rates to complete the picture.

What about ducati's supply and demand data?
Where is it tabled as it des not tally with anything from WGC?
Putting the data aside, ducati's point is that jewellery fabrication demand declined each quarter of 2005.
He is correct.  But he did not tell you that demand was greater in 2005 despite POG being much higher.
Why else were you misled?
For one, the price of gold from January to December 2005 increased by over $100/oz or 25%: Whereas in 2004 gold closed a few dollars lower than it started the year.
Continuing to use quarterly data to prove a case means that one fails to account for "averaging" of data, which reduces statistical volatility.
This is imperative as gold prices change considerably in the course of a year.
ducati's analysis continues to be deceptive and deficient.
He will *not * acknowledge he does not understand the fundamentals of gold as that is his nature.
A person who believes that a commodity is in oversupply because people are selling their jewellery to meet demand *and * Central Banks are releasing stocks into the market, deserves to be treated accordingly by the market.
I have greater confidence in the capacity of gold to clear the $800 hurdle this year as the present consolidation of gold prices remains at the high end of analyst's expectations.
The longer we consolidate below $700 the sharper the move north will be.
I expect the next run to be sharper and faster than that earlier this year, that took gold $175 higher in the space of 2 months.


----------



## Ageo

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

This thread is too technical for me to jump in on but i will add my   


My mother is in the wholesale Jewellery business and imports 18ct gold from Italy. Her partner has been in the industry for over 30 yrs and every year the biggest Jewellery fare is held in Switzerland (late in the yr usually). He says all the big chiefs usually wait for the fare to make there purchases. As christmas is around the corner aswell, wholesale's stock up big time buying gold by the kilo (sometimes up to 10 or even 100 kg per order) and just to let you know a 1kg gold bar is around $28,000. Billions of dollars are stocked and bought each time as the heavyweights fly in from around the world to the biggest fare.

I have noticed in the last 2 yrs when this fare has taken place gold has taken a surge up in price. (Its around November time). This year i will be attending and will see at 1st hand how big this place really is. 

It probably means nothing, but i think the heavyhitters in the jewellery business have a better understanding of where gold is going than you or i since its there business to know and they have been doing it for many many years it large quantities.

Adrian


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Adrian
Does that mean prices are being led by fundamentals, or speculation?


----------



## Ageo

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Personally i have no idea but i would assume a bit of both. Remember as demand increases so will supply and hence drive the price up.

Im gonna find out some more info from a few big hitters in italy, they said wait till Tuesday and they will have a better idea.

Ill keep you posted.....


Remember one thing thow that a commodity has and always will have more value over a dollar in the long run simply because its a resource that is limited in supply whereis cash can be printed. Gold is also a universal currency and you will be welcomed by it in basically every nation whereis AUD will be useless in alot of nations. If a depression hit tomorrow ask yourself what will have more value? (Gold or Cash?) that will give you an indication as what the price might do.

As for gold prices being too high, well inflation actually forces prices to move with the times. i.e what buys you 1 oz of gold today will cost way more in 10-20 yrs as with most things. So if inflation drives gold prices up over a period of time and gold is a precious commodity then i suspect it will in the long run always have value.

thats my


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> In an effort to boost business, Indian Bank is hoping to increase retail sales of its gold coins, which it launched in March.
> 
> The government-owned bank has so far sold over 20,000 coins across its 1,400 branches but with new plans to introduce more high-value coins, it expects to have made a net income of 100 million Rupees from the coins by April next year.
> 
> A spokesman for the bank told Reuters that since margins on other banking products have been falling, selling gold was seen as a positive business decision.
> 
> Banks in India are allowed to freely import gold and sell it on. Initially, they operated as channels for jewellers, importing the precious metal only after jewellers placed an order to eliminate price risk.
> 
> However, with prices at an all-time high, increasing numbers of Indian banks are now selling to the general public.





Oh dear, the general public, the last bastion of utter stupidity.

*rederob* 



> What about ducati's supply and demand data?
> Where is it tabled as it des not tally with anything from WGC?




But of course it does my good fellow, it comes directly from the table that you posted on pg24.
Here is my post #485



> Nonsense, the figures come from your own data;
> Jewellery consumption, from Q4 2004 to Q4 2005 has fallen 15%
> All the other figures also come from your own data.




What has obviously confused you is *Q4 2004- Q4 2005* you must read the whole sentence if it is to make any sense. Therefore while total demand in 2005 as compared to 2004 grew by 5% (revised to 4%) the figure is deceiving, as demand was not growing at the trend pace, it had dramatically slowed.

That trend has been continued in 2006;
*Q1 2005 to Q1 2006.......(-22%)* 



> Continuing to use quarterly data to prove a case means that one fails to account for "averaging" of data, which reduces statistical volatility.
> This is imperative as gold prices change considerably in the course of a year.
> ducati's analysis continues to be deceptive and deficient.




Nonsense.
Using quarterly data is the only real chance you have of the price reaching, and exceeding your $800+ targets. If I were to use *long term averages* then the price would fall to absurdedly low levels.

For example;
If we said that Gold tracked inflation, then taking the long term trend of inflation at 2.5% and utilizing $700 as the *price*;

Let's look at some very long term data. If an individual purchased an ounce of gold in 1802, it would have cost him about $20. Today, that ounce is worth over $700, a return that is well under 2% a year. Twenty dollars put in the bank at compound interest would be worth almost $100,000 today. And if our investor bought $20 of stocks in 1802 and reinvested the dividends, those stocks today would be worth over $200 million! That is a return of over 8% per year. Gold doesn't measure up in the very long run. 

Therefore, even the central argument of Gold being an inflation hedge, just doesn't work out. If for 20yrs you had held it at $350'ish, then you were in dire trouble



> A person who believes that a commodity is in oversupply because people are selling their jewellery to meet demand and Central Banks are releasing stocks into the market, deserves to be treated accordingly by the market.




Seemingly the laws of supply & demand have simply passed you by.
Assuming supply from mining is fixed at level *X*
When price is low, and demand is higher,  price will rise, and continue to rise until demand is satisfied.
Demand will be satisfied when supply from any source, exceeds the demand. Eventually, at some price, the price induces existing owners to sell (provide supply) to satisfy the demand.

Therefore, by definition supply has increased.
Should price fall, then the supply exceeds the demand, until again, price finds an equilibrium, when demand, again exceeds the supply, or, that supply will not provide that supply below a certain price level, thus, demand will again exceed supply at a specific price point, that will be equilibrium.

Therefore WHO constituted the DEMAND that was causal in the rapid price rise? You say fundamental demand; jewellery, industry, investment.

Only one area demonstrated growth far above trend, and that was investment. The component of investment that grew was speculative, viz. $140 Billion supplied via Hedge Funds etc to the commodities markets.

Jewellery, the industries largest sector, has shown shrinking demand, and increasing supply, ergo, the current price is speculative, and will become increasingly volatile as the drama plays out.



> Ducati has called my analysis shoddy in the past.
> I do not however mislead people into thinking that income dictates demand: It is a factor, but there are other factors that have great importance and must not be ignored.




And it is continuing in the same manner.
Income quite clearly does *dictate demand* 
Your statement is so devoid of thought, as to be nonsense.
If I can't afford it, I can't buy it. If I can't buy it, my vote doesn't count.

The *other factor's* are negatives.
Competition from other luxury items, but more importantly,*competition from better investment asset classes* 



> To remove the egg from his face, ducati should now extrapolate the differential of income growth between USA and India to determine which nation is likely to have a greater impact on gold demand going forward.
> Ideally he can also look at their comparative population growth rates to complete the picture.




If I could find the egg, I most certainly would.
Again your analysis is devoid of thought. You have assumed that as income growth grows in India & China, which is probable, that their ownership of gold will increase proportionally.

There are two factors to consider;
1.....Will they pay above the inflationary rate? History suggests that they will not do so, that they understand quite clearly, the price you pay, governs any returns that you may realize.

2....Will they continue to view gold as an investment?
I do not think that they will. Indians in particular are astute when it comes to finance, and they will increasingly eschew gold, for more lucrative asset classes.


jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
You need to ask yourself why the quarterly data and the averaged annual data tell different stories.
All readers by now will have seen the folly of your selective use of information.
Why obfuscate readers with irrelevances, and distort information I have provided:
What you proclaim repeadly as nonsense needs to be exposed for what it is, so below in "blue" is data you drew from somewhere and then proclaimed to tell all it came from the WGC table I posted at #484:


----------



## rederob

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

ducati
May I suggest you start to be honest with the information you offer and relate it to my points directly, rather than create "facts" and total diversions to support your points.
When your "facts" are supported by long term trends, and you can present these simply (as distinct from your long and winding missives), other readers might be able to get involved in this discussion.

Let me take one of your most recent responses, below, to demonstrate my concerns:
*Nonsense.
Using quarterly data is the only real chance you have of the price reaching, and exceeding your $800+ targets. If I were to use *long term averages* then the price would fall to absurdedly low levels.*
ducati, please explain to readers how, if the price of gold reaches $800 (or $600, or $700), this is influenced by "*quarterly data*".
My view is that market forces will determine prices.
Can you also explain how using "*long term averages*" will lead to gold prices falling to *absurdly low levels*.
Using averaged data reduces the chance that "seasonality" or "volatility" is mistaken for trend.  It does not remove the actual prices attained for the data set at any point in time.
This will be my last post on this thread until spot gold reaches $800.
This should allow the (bull) dust to settle.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

rederob.

Think what Duc is getting at is the comment by Adam Hamilton that gold could fall to its 200ma level.
If you work with shorterterm ma's then these levels are going to be more representative than longerterm levels.As the mas are based upon less data.

Personally Im interested in why a 200ma and not a 250 being yearly or a 125 being 6 mthly.

On another line.
From a fundamental view point which companies are on your watch lists or trade lists in
(a) Gold
(b) Nickel
(c) Copper
(d) Zinc


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*rederob* 



> ducati
> You need to ask yourself why the quarterly data and the averaged annual data tell different stories.




Simply for the reason that they have different starting and finishing points.
But, they are still not telling different stories are they, just the *amount* varies.

Demand for jewellery 2003 to 2004 increased 5.6%
Demand for jewellery 2004 to 2005 increased 4.5%
Therefore demand fell by 1.1% between the two comparison years.

However, if you look at the demand on a rolling quarterly basis, that falling demand can be seen to be accelerating from YOY quarterly comparisons.
This is all rather basic.



> Why obfuscate readers with irrelevances, and distort information I have provided:




Because I consider your interpretation severely biased.
Your judgement seems to be impaired from the large positions you seemingly carry within gold. I on the other hand, have no gold exposure at all, and can bring a little more objectivity to the party.



> ducati
> May I suggest you start to be honest with the information you offer and relate it to my points directly, rather than create "facts" and total diversions to support your points.




If you post figures, I am happy to.
However you are regressing back to *opinion*, and unfortunately there seems to be no evidence to support your *opinion* currently.



> When your "facts" are supported by long term trends, and you can present these simply (as distinct from your long and winding missives), other readers might be able to get involved in this discussion.




And I take it that this trend is not long enough for you?



> Let's look at some very long term data. If an individual purchased an ounce of gold in 1802, it would have cost him about $20. Today, that ounce is worth over $700, a return that is well under 2% a year. Twenty dollars put in the bank at compound interest would be worth almost $100,000 today. And if our investor bought $20 of stocks in 1802 and reinvested the dividends, those stocks today would be worth over $200 million! That is a return of over 8% per year. Gold doesn't measure up in the very long run.




That's 1.7% compounded. Does not even return inflation.



> ducati, please explain to readers how, if the price of gold reaches $800 (or $600, or $700), this is influenced by "quarterly data".
> My view is that market forces will determine prices.




Because the only way gold will reach those prices is based upon a speculative blowout, and the speculative money pushes the price to whatever figure you wish. But you will see this in the Q by Q figures, and it will be evidenced by *investment demand* increasing by large amounts.



> Can you also explain how using "long term averages" will lead to gold prices falling to absurdly low levels.




Because in the long term, gold returns a euphamistic 1.7%
That is based on a price of $700.
If you take the average price through the years, it is much lower, therefore, I have been generous.



> Using averaged data reduces the chance that "seasonality" or "volatility" is mistaken for trend. It does not remove the actual prices attained for the data set at any point in time.




Just so.
And what is the average price?
$700, $800, $1000..............
Don't make me laugh, it's circa $300 to $350 and possibly a lot lower if you include the *gold years*



> This will be my last post on this thread until spot gold reaches $800.




I'll see you in 20yrs then?

jog on
d998


----------



## Ageo

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> This will be my last post on this thread until spot gold reaches $800.






			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> I'll see you in 20yrs then?





hehe Duc, are you willing to bet your balls on it? (perhaps confidence can be overused especially when precious things are on the line)


----------



## chemist

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Demand for jewellery 2003 to 2004 increased 5.6%
> Demand for jewellery 2004 to 2005 increased 4.5%
> Therefore demand fell by 1.1% between the two comparison years.




That's nonsense. The rate of increase in demand fell; demand continued to rise.

cheers,
Chemist


----------



## Bobby

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> ducati
> May I suggest you start to be honest with the information you offer and relate it to my points directly, rather than create "facts" and total diversions to support your points.
> When your "facts" are supported by long term trends, and you can present these simply (as distinct from your long and winding missives), other readers might be able to get involved in this discussion.
> 
> Let me take one of your most recent responses, below, to demonstrate my concerns:
> *Nonsense.
> Using quarterly data is the only real chance you have of the price reaching, and exceeding your $800+ targets. If I were to use *long term averages* then the price would fall to absurdedly low levels.*
> ducati, please explain to readers how, if the price of gold reaches $800 (or $600, or $700), this is influenced by "*quarterly data*".
> My view is that market forces will determine prices.
> Can you also explain how using "*long term averages*" will lead to gold prices falling to *absurdly low levels*.
> Using averaged data reduces the chance that "seasonality" or "volatility" is mistaken for trend.  It does not remove the actual prices attained for the data set at any point in time.
> This will be my last post on this thread until spot gold reaches $800.
> This should allow the (bull) dust to settle.



Understand you Rederob,

Hey duc your credibility rests on your posts.

What are you trying  on ? , is it  restitution from the past.   
Or are you a sophist ?  

Bob.
P.S. Be care'ful G.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Looking bullish again IMO (technically)


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Looking bullish again IMO (technically)
> ..........




Wayne,
Do you mean on the dailies or weeklies?...or was that a jibe? I still see it coutinuing to correct as it has failed to regain the highs after that blowoff top. I've checked your usually updated blog for your view on gold but no one is home


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I think you'll find Wayne posted as it was powering past $660 . Things didn't turn out so well later.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Richkid said:
			
		

> ...or was that a jibe?




Me? Jibe? Surely you jest!  

No, I thought it was looking bullish at the time (for a swing trade) . The action later that day made me change my mind... back on the sidelines. (in other words... NFI)


----------



## RichKid

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Me? Jibe? Surely you jest!
> 
> No, I thought it was looking bullish at the time (for a swing trade) . The action later that day made me change my mind... back on the sidelines. (in other words... NFI)




I had a feeling it was one of your ram raid set-ups, far too swift for my slower trades. btw, I'm a lifetime member of the NFI club too. This messyness is confusing, I might find some succour in the COT charts & EW. Still bearish imo and more pain to come.

btw, check out the cover of this week's Economist, it has a bear looking for a stockmarket, nice caption!!

Thanks Mark, I didn't check the time, d'oh.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Best to be bearish, and be surprised! Likewise, NFI. Hence, the bear. Be prepared to attack like a grizzley however!!! Or a koala on heat.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Best to be bearish, and be surprised! Likewise, NFI. Hence, the bear. Be prepared to attack like a grizzley however!!! Or a koala on heat.




The grizzly's are ambushing gold :


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> The grizzly's are ambushing gold :




The bears are having their way with gold atm. Nice, after having been faked out the other day.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold has had a pretty rough ride the last 2-3 weeks. Although not completed just yet, wave 5 on the 4hr bars chart attached seems to be playing out. 
Although wave 5 is incomplete as I write this post and price still looks like it could be heading south first, perhaps to $600/10(as sometimes wave 5's do extend-especially in commodities.) If this wave count turns out to be correct then a rally must be on the cards soon back up to at least the $650-680 level .


----------



## lbaz9

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Took a fair beating last night, back down to $630.  Do we see any blue sky up ahead?


----------



## markrmau

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

The Aus market seems to be telling us that gold will be up tonight. (LHG,OXR,NCM) at 1042 am anyway.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				lbaz9 said:
			
		

> Took a fair beating last night, back down to $630.  Do we see any blue sky up ahead?





If there is a rebound I would not expect anything massive. Just a bit of a relief rally  or retest(nevertheless tradeable) before the next leg down starts in the weeks ahead. 

Will be keeping a very close watch on any rally for evidence to take up further short positions or close out existing ones, if analysis is wrong.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

*Citigroup Upgrades*

GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup gold price upgrades may give bargain hunters added courage as metal comes under pressure from USD strength; spot $635/oz, down around $8 since NY close after Fed Bernanke's comments overnight raise rate hike expectations. But some players saying USD rebound not overly convincing, suggesting temporary reprieve in overall downtrend. That view in line with Citigroup's upgrades to $660 for 2H06, $700 for 2007, $750 for 2008. "The rationale behind these upgrades is that gold's fundamental appeal as a hedge against inflation and (US dollar) weakness should be reinstated after the current period of instability."(JAD) 

They specifically upgraded NCM and LHG with price targets of about $30.00 and $3.75 respectively. Big premiums on todays prices. Gold, oil and uranium still seem to be the favoured place to park cash at the moment. Dips like today provide long term players a buying opportunity.


----------



## coyotte

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Read a interesting post on Kitco

Basically it boiled down to , that while base metal prices climbed at a greater rate than POG , then naturally "base metal" miners will out perform "gold miners" but as base metals decline from their tops and after POG settles it should go the other way round


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Which really equates to therefore, speculation (speculative demand) currently driving the price. If speculative buying changes to speculative selling, then, $550 won't hold either, you'll be looking closer to $300+
> 
> jog on
> d998




Hey Ducati, jog on over to have a look at this story - 

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...lip-under-radar/2006/06/05/1149359675190.html

I've seen these debates rage for the last 5 or 6 years, and so far the Gold bugs are way out in front. If you don't like the stuff then don't be part of the greatest fundamental shift in world economics since The Great Depression.

Snip from the article - 

"The sort of money that is chasing this market higher is not hot money," said Ross Norman, director of the BullionDesk.com.

"It is slow steady investment by pension funds and long-term buyers. Anybody who thinks this market is about to head sharply lower is reading it badly," he said.

Ignore at your peril

Jogging off now


----------



## moses

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

As a novice, I don't understand gold. 

I mean, yeah, OK, constant demand for jewellery etc, but for gold to = money then whatever the owners of gold are willing to hoard, trade and part with their gold to buy (food, oil, medicine?) then surely that commodity is more valuable than gold? Why not invest in that commodity in the first place?

Maybe to buy gold is just another way of saying "I don't know what is going to happen next, so I wanna be liquid."

Therefore price of gold = level of uncertainty about the future.

Is this true?

Moses


----------



## Porper

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> The bears are having their way with gold atm. Nice, after having been faked out the other day.




Well I am now a Gold Bull again.The retrace to almost 600 is a buy signal as far as I am concerned,(Elliot Wave counts), also somebody I hold in high regard has said the probability of a bounce is high. I have a target up to 700, so good for a quick swing trade, especially in the lower priced stocks that have been hit severely recently, maybe BGF or PSV although I don't hold either yet.

Then I'll be putting my Bear suit back on for a big plunge again.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I'm seeing a turn in sentiment. Have you seen it, the past 2 days? All of a sudden, there a bullish reports...No one is saying that it's the bottom, but all of these upgrades about the future POG...Analysts are seeing the correction as part of a larger bull market by my guestimation.


----------



## ctp6360

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I've noticed the same Kennas, look at all the major sites that track world markets, all of a sudden the wording is positive whereas the last few weeks have been all doom and gloom.

Maybe all the big guys have opened their positions and want the market to go up again


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Are you talkin conspiracy ctp? Or, just the herd following the leader? 

Doesn't take much does it? Could swing the other way with one report though, but the concensus definately seems to be towards higher prices in the future. I am really looking forward to seeing how this folds out. If only I didn't have so much riding on it!!! 

And, please send me a crystal ball c/o The Black Cat,, Brunswick St, Fitzroy, VIC.


----------



## ctp6360

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I don't know what I'm saying really, but it just seems to me that all the media / market reports / commentaters etc have been "ganging up" on the markets, in the sense that they seem to focus on all the negative news, and even spin positive signs in a negative light....

Almost like a self-fulfilling prophesy...anyway, let's see what happens this week...


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Oh yeah ctp! Self fullfilling prophecies ARE market psychology! We'll see.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I think this 'correction' has more legs yet, possibly to the last resistance level @ $570, as we are entering the traditional low period for gold and stocks generally. As for the upbeat talk about bottoms forming and being a good time to buy are, for me, signals to stay well clear of gold stocks for a while yet. Wait untill gold is so unloved again that everyone is calling an end to the gold bull. Needs a wall of worry. If it stays true to form, don't hold your breath for a resumption of the bull till August/ September, with sideways action in the meantime.
That's not to say there won't be bargains to be had between now & then. Also expect to see some m&a activity to start coming out of the woodwork with these lower prices. I still think a 4 figure pog within the next 8 months is achievable, but not just yet. But when it starts again, hold on to your hats! :

My top gold stocks picks
BDG
DOM
LHG 
SBM
LSG
OXR


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

August gold about to break 600 :


----------



## lbaz9

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> August gold about to break 600 :




Just broke $600USD on the Nymex


----------



## The Mint Man

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

on my comsec its $593 ATM


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Heading to $550, the next decent support line. Remember it ran from $500 to $720 in a couple of days! Unhedged gold companies are still raking it in at the moment. Looking forward to upgrades across the board in the comming months.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Old support was at $550 but had resistance at $570, which should be new support, if you believe technical analysis. Current spot price @ $592 and falling, acting like a commodity instead of a currency.

Look out for a merger between Anglogold & Newmont too.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Anglo Gold and Newmont???? Good rumour. Takeover or merger? Whose sp will benefit?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Old support was at $550 but had resistance at $570, which should be new support, if you believe technical analysis. Current spot price @ $592 and falling, acting like a commodity instead of a currency.
> 
> Look out for a merger between Anglogold & Newmont too.




It is!

**ducks for cover**

:


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

You like that rumour   

I'm thinking a merger.

Lots of aussie gold stocks trashed with the rest today too. Hmmm... when to buy and top up......


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Holy Cr@p!

70c off breaking 590 as well!

Take it down boys!!!!!!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Maybe $550 by the end of the week? 

NCM and LHG should find some buyers. 

I'm also thinking some corporate acty possible now there's some value out there. 

Fat Prophets reiterated their support for gold and LHG tonight.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Heading to $550, the next decent support line. Remember it ran from $500 to $720 in a couple of days! Unhedged gold companies are still raking it in at the moment. Looking forward to upgrades across the board in the comming months.




I agree with the $550 level being quite important kennas. Under Elliott wave parlance, the whole move from $412 to $730 was a 5th wave extension or blow off. These are quite common in commodities because much of the buying is fear based rather than hope based that we see in the stock market. Having observed many 5th wave extensions before in the stock market and commodities,there was only one possible result(it is the same every time!!) when that wave 5 terminates. A very sharp correction or "mini crash" occures. Sometimes this may be as low as the subwave 2 of the 5th wave extension. In this case that is $430 Now time will tell if we get that far. From a technical stand point my target is approximately $490 which is 50% of the entire range from the low of $250 to the high of $730.

Currently I would label the decline Wave A. The first chart below shows the range of this 5th wave extension. Remembering that most moves in the market are percentages of previous highs and lows, I would expect from a fibonacci standpoint that this wave A finds support at approximately $566 the 50% level or $530 the 61.8%  . How can we be sure which one of these can be a descent support level for wave A? We need more evidence. 

The second chart shows the centered 80day cycle(80 day SMA in -red line). Now half the span of that cycle is 40 days or 40SMA-blue line which is also centered. Just as the faster of the 2 averages turns down(40SMA) we extrapolate forward and note the price level(in this case $626) where the 2 lines intersect. The difference between this price and the high on this chart-$720 is $94. Subtracting $94 from $626 gives us a target of $532 which is pretty close to the 61.8% level.

Of course this alone is not justification to take up a long position in anticipation of a rally. Price action and the "pattern of trend" must be considered first.

Now how far can prices carry upward in a wave B rally? Once again this should be a percentage of the decline either 50% or 61.8% of the decline. This rally will be just as sharp upward as the decline was downward and will "rekindle" the hope of the bulls. This will be a suckers rally and fully retraced. After that rally, volatility and the rate of change of price will slow for the remaider of wave C. once again I think that level will be close to $490, but could go as low as $430 as stated before. All the same, given the whole bull campaign took 6 years, the ensuing bear campaign will not be over soon. My guess it will take a good 2 years, before finishing, and then the secular bull resuming.

The last chart is "a guess' as to what the rest of the decline may look like. In the end it will probably look nothing like it!!


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Maybe $550 by the end of the week?




A mass exodus from gold (speaking of Exodus)

566.5 as I type... amazing action here!


----------



## Porper

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> A mass exodus from gold (speaking of Exodus)
> 
> 566.5 as I type... amazing action here!





Still heading down and no sign of the bounce I thought would kick in around 600.Shame as I went long on two "oversold" Gold stocks last thing.

They will look more "oversold" on open.


----------



## snopig

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Down to $563


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

This is great! Bearish stance is paying dividends.
As stated earlier, time to go long again will be when holders of gold/resource stoxx are completely disgusted with their positions and give up hope.
The market has a habit of shaking out the weaker impatient hands, before moving back into the desired direction of speculation.\\ In terms of time, this correction is not even half done yet. 
Looks like that is going to be some time away, when the 8.5 yr cycle bottoms out. So it could take 2 yrs when that cycle bottoms out.

In the short term this wave A "washout" will find support between this price and $530, and will base for a strong sucker rally.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> This is great! .




why is it great?

because every1s losing money except u?


----------



## Nick Radge

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I agree with wavepicker. Forget the dollars and cents; it is great because a very large lesson on trading should have been learned by many here. Human emotion will drive share and commodity prices well beyond rational fundamental valuations. Sure, fair value may always return but the pain in between is usually more than most can withstand. If you hang around long enough you will learn that *the market can, and will, do whatever it wants whether you agree or not.*  The question is how long you can hang around for?

The way to become a better trader is to take this experience and learn from it. The road is going to be a lot tougher now than the last 3-years. If you've done well over the last 3-years yet dropped your load over the last few months, the you need to consider the implications of "luck" rather than the ability to read share prices and market sentiment correctly. I think a few people herein fall into this category. 

I do speak from experience. I lost twice my annual salary in 1987. I have never placed myself in that position again because I walked away, learned how to trade properly and came back. The future is bright everyone!


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> why is it great?
> 
> because every1s losing money except u?




If you have lost, I am very sorry to hear that nizar. I hope things turn out ok for you in the long run.

Please undersatnd that I too as have many others here  have had our fair share of losses in the last 10 yrs. I got absolutely smashed in 2000 and kept losing for another 2 yrs following that, until it got pounded into my head what I should and should not be doing.

For me it was not losing $$ that had a big impact on me. It was the psychological damage to my confidence that was detroyed and to this day I am trying am still trying to come to terms with that.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

0252 GMT [Dow Jones] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Gold (last $560.00/oz) still looks
bearish on daily chart despite falling $86 since last week; MACD, stochastic
still in bearish mode, latter in oversold territory suggesting sideways or lower
prices possible near term. However, significant support lies at $548, which
38.2% Fibonacci correction level of entire advance from August 1999 trough of
$251.95 to last month's peak at $730.50; this lies just above 200-day moving
average at $546.50 and strong $534.15 base during February-March, which may
prompt corrective rebound if tested.(LST)


----------



## pacer

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

The only buyers of gold are the Bears and they're using it in thier tooth fillings as they'ere wearing out slowly with all the feeding they're doing.

There's a sign on the ASX front door that reads.....


OUT TO LUNCH

BACK AT 500

THE BULL


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

aug gold < $550

This is one vicious bear!


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Some nice work there Wavepicker. How does it stack up with todays bottom @ $542, then rebound back to (now) $560?. I'm sort of thinking that there is solid physical support on any of these dips by long term gold investors eg oil countries diversifying, Russia adding to it's vaults etc. 
Having been such a substantial route of all the commodity markets as well, I can feel a rally is in the pipelines very soon, in all asset markets. How long and how genuine this will be is the real unknown, though gold should be the currency that will continue to appreciate once the US dollar breaks from it's current dead cat bounce rally. The real test will be when US interest rates continue to rise but the US dollar does not, and conversely gold rises.
So, topped up on BDG today @$1.60, and finished at $1.70 - just too good an oportunity to pass up. Also, the hi lo range of LHG today made for some good trading. Volatility = oportunity.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> I'm sort of thinking that there is solid physical support on any of these dips by long term gold investors eg oil countries diversifying, Russia adding to it's vaults etc.
> Having been such a substantial route of all the commodity markets as well, I can feel a rally is in the pipelines very soon, in all asset markets.




....and for the life of me it looks very much like a capitulation low. I also thinks thats the bottom of the pool... for now anyway.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Dr D, the chinese pictogram for _crisis _is danger and *opportunity*. You got it right! 

My orifices are bleeding at the moment and I need some encouragement to get the toes wet again. Like gold going back above $600! Although, maybe I'll have missed the opportunity. Agree on BDG and LHG though. They'll benefit most from a sudden, or even gradual, rise in the POG.


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> If you have lost, I am very sorry to hear that nizar. I hope things turn out ok for you in the long run.
> 
> Please undersatnd that I too as have many others here  have had our fair share of losses in the last 10 yrs. I got absolutely smashed in 2000 and kept losing for another 2 yrs following that, until it got pounded into my head what I should and should not be doing.
> 
> For me it was not losing $$ that had a big impact on me. It was the psychological damage to my confidence that was detroyed and to this day I am trying am still trying to come to terms with that.




agree

dont feel sorry for me; i actually havent lost; cashed out after the 40pt suckers rally on friday AM; it was a perfect chance to get out

now im just waiting on a re-entry

agree about psychology and all that; even i was reading the other day some established fund managers quit after dot-com because they were sick of being wrong... its all part of the game i guess


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Some nice work there Wavepicker. How does it stack up with todays bottom @ $542, then rebound back to (now) $560?. I'm sort of thinking that there is solid physical support on any of these dips by long term gold investors eg oil countries diversifying, Russia adding to it's vaults etc.
> Having been such a substantial route of all the commodity markets as well, I can feel a rally is in the pipelines very soon, in all asset markets. How long and how genuine this will be is the real unknown, though gold should be the currency that will continue to appreciate once the US dollar breaks from it's current dead cat bounce rally. The real test will be when US interest rates continue to rise but the US dollar does not, and conversely gold rises.
> So, topped up on BDG today @$1.60, and finished at $1.70 - just too good an oportunity to pass up. Also, the hi lo range of LHG today made for some good trading. Volatility = oportunity.




Dr Doom,the charts I posted earlier were simply meant as a guide, and perhaps give us some clue where the a potential "zone" may provide support. 

I agree with Wayne about the capitulation low. Markets trends often end in a climax. Especially so in commodities. That was the case at the peak and may well be the same now. If it is, then there are always re-tests of the previous lows before a new trend gets underway. If this is not the final washout before a major rally then one would probably expect the market to consolidate at this level or thereabouts before putting in one more low at slightly lower levels, before reversing.

Which of the above 2 scenarios it is does not really matter, and is not that important anyway, it's just a number. Trading is not about picking tops and bottoms. It's about recognizing when the current trend is at risk of ending, and looking for evidence within the pattern of the trend that support your analysis. We must have a better level of confidence than just guessing. At present there is no clear evidence. If a low has been registered then a pattern that appears more "cyclic" than just a bounce has to emerge.

Time will tell.  I was waiting for this trade all year. Although I expect quite a sharp countertrend rally, I might sit this one out and just observe. I don't like trading countertrends, safer to trade the larger trend for now.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Wavepicker, are you saying this has been the counter trend or the rise in gold will be the counter trend. (I'm scratching my head)

There's only a couple of crazy bears out there saying that gold is doomed. Most analysts are saying 'long term bull' for gold.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Wavepicker, are you saying this has been the counter trend or the rise in gold will be the counter trend. (I'm scratching my head)
> 
> There's only a couple of crazy bears out there saying that gold is doomed. Most analysts are saying 'long term bull' for gold.




Kennas,
Personally I beleive gold still remains in a secular bull market. If that is the case then this mini crash will be a countertrend move within that long term secular bull. However this may only be the first leg of the countertrend move both in terms of price and time. Remember that this bull was 6 years in the making. It's going to take some time to correct this move. I estimate about 2 years. Using the 1970's gold bull as an analog, back then gold moved from $50 to $200 from 1970-1974. It then spent the next 2 years correcting back to the $100 level before resuming it's bull all the way to $880 in 1980. The countertrend move was just a springboard for it to move to higher. 

Earlier in this thread I posted a monthly chart showing that gold moves in an 8.5 yr cycle. That cycle is 62 months along and as such is pointed hard down. This cycle bottoms in 2008/9. It is important to remember that the cycle bottom may not necessarily coincide with the ultimate low in gold. It might line up with a higher low after price eventually bottoms. This should just be used as a guide.

As for the current decline I am looking for a low that will lead to a rally that will correct the current down move.I beleive this will just be a relief rally(and not carry to a higher level) before price eventually carries to lower levels in the next couple of years. Either way, after this rally is finished volatility and rate price change will probably slow. 

This just my opinion and it may well be wrong. Anything is possible in the market.

Cheers


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Nick Radge said:
			
		

> ...a very large lesson on trading should have been learned by many here. The way to become a better trader is to take this experience and learn from it.



Hear hear!

(an off topic rant follows)

I was, like many others, lucky to begin my trading career in the bull run but fortunately have learned one lesson in sufficient time to (hopefully) survive this correction/bear.

No matter what, you must preserve your capital at all costs. If you lose your capital, you cannot play the game any more.

Personally, I have developed one positive expectancy system and have backtested it in as many market environments as I deemed necessary, including bears and crashes. So far, the system is trading in accordance with its tested parameters (less than 2% closed equity drawdown so far).

The fear factor, however, is absolutely incredible, even though I understood what to expect in these market conditions in advance.

The next step - to learn to trade a bear profitably - to capitalize on the fear.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

IMO gold is in a secular bull market but at some point in that bull run will undergo a major correction (as per gold in the mid-70's or stocks in 1987). Whether or not this is that correction is the question...


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

All opinions offer valid points, but I wonder how technology is playing a part in all this. Back in the 70's it was a manual system of trading whereas these days it's all electronic. Transposing a trend from 35 years ago to todays markets may need a 'fudge' factor to take account of this. Todays markets are so fickle and fast that what happened over months and years back then plays out over weeks and days now. I'm looking at sideways action till September to purge all the doubters then the game will be back on for young and old.
I am long term into gold, and have established postions in stocks some years ago, so these fluctuations don't concern me at all, in fact I am adding to the portfolio. As long as George Bush & Helicopter Ben are in charge I can sleep at night.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> All opinions offer valid points, but I wonder how technology is playing a part in all this. Back in the 70's it was a manual system of trading whereas these days it's all electronic. Transposing a trend from 35 years ago to todays markets may need a 'fudge' factor to take account of this. Todays markets are so fickle and fast that what happened over months and years back then plays out over weeks and days now. I'm looking at sideways action till September to purge all the doubters then the game will be back on for young and old.
> I am long term into gold, and have established postions in stocks some years ago, so these fluctuations don't concern me at all, in fact I am adding to the portfolio. As long as George Bush & Helicopter Ben are in charge I can sleep at night.





Dr Doom, 

Imagine I picked out the following charts and rubbed out the labels and dates:
-1929 DJIA Crash
- DJIA Crash of 87
-Nasdaq Crash
-Nikkei 225 crash

Then I showed them to you and asked you to differentiate between a modern market and a market of 10, 20, 30 or 70 Yrs, could you do it?
Absolutely not, because you are looking at fractals. People have not changed in the last 100 yrs. The same emotional factors propel markets these days as did 70 yrs ago. Those are: hope fear and greed. That has never and will never change. 

Cheers


----------



## mit

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Actually I think the opposite is true. The increased amount of information and the deeper liquidity makes it harder for groups of individuals to manipulate the market.

I'm reading about the history of Wall Street, I'm up to the 1890s and so far it is just a history of individuals (better known ones Rockerfellers, Vandabuilts, JP Morgan) manipulating the market and stripping companies for their own benefits. There had also been market crashes about as often as we have now.

MIT


----------



## mit

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

... I should say the only people to manipulate the markets now are the Feds. They are pretty much the cause of the current run. Economic conditions have not significantly worsened it is just that the Fed DOESN'T want to raise rates anymore but the tightening to date hasn't made enough of a dent in inflation. The Fed hopes that by speaking out that they will scare the bejebuses out of everybody and rain in consumption and borrowing. Well its worked for the market, now that's power.

MIT


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold 8.5yr Cycle*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Personally I believe gold still remains in a secular bull market. If that is the case then this mini crash will be a countertrend move within that long term secular bull. However this may only be the first leg of the countertrend move both in terms of price and time. Remember that this bull was 6 years in the making. It's going to take some time to correct this move. I estimate about 2 years. Using the 1970's gold bull as an analog, back then gold moved from $50 to $200 from 1970-1974. It then spent the next 2 years correcting back to the $100 level before resuming it's bull all the way to $880 in 1980. The countertrend move was just a springboard for it to move to higher.
> 
> Earlier in this thread I posted a monthly chart showing that gold moves in an 8.5 yr cycle. That cycle is 62 months along and as such is pointed hard down. This cycle bottoms in 2008/9. It is important to remember that the cycle bottom may not necessarily coincide with the ultimate low in gold. It might line up with a higher low after price eventually bottoms. This should just be used as a guide.
> 
> As for the current decline I am looking for a low that will lead to a rally that will correct the current down move.I beleive this will just be a relief rally(and not carry to a higher level) before price eventually carries to lower levels in the next couple of years. Either way, after this rally is finished volatility and rate price change will probably slow.



Hi wavepicker,

I read your previous postings on the 8.5yr gold-cycle and found this article by David Chapman (dated 25 Jan 2005).

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_012405.html

Key extracts:

"Just as there are cycles in the stock market there are also cycles in the Gold market. One of the best cycle analysts for Gold that we read is Ray Merriman of MMA Cycles. Mr. Merriman has identified what he believes is as eries of 8.5 year cycle lows in Gold. Our monthly chart of Gold shows that there have been 4 observations of this 8.5 year cycle with lows seen in 1976, 1985, 1993 and the April 2001 bottom.

The next one is due somewhere in 2009-2010.

If there is a 4.25 year cycle (half the 8.5 year cycle) it is sometime in 2005 and even into 2006. Merriman also postulates that there is an 18.5 month cycle of lows as well. It is quite possible that low was made in May 2004.

Merriman believes that the cycle of gold lows has a bigger 24year cycle and it is made up of three 8.5 year cycles. If that is the case 2001 would have ended that 24year cycle and we are in the process of new long cycle. Since this would be first leg up of a new 8.5 year cycle it should or could be the strongest as was the case witnessed in the 1970's. That tells us that we could go as late as 2008/2009 before we top out in this cycle.

Intriguing is the gold cycle of the 1970s. In that cycle Gold started at $35 in 1971 and peaked in late 1974 at around $190. Gold then went into a year and half slump falling all the way back to just above $100 in August 1976. It was from that point that it started on its sharp rise to $850 in January 1980. The biggest part of the rise was in 1979.

In the current cycle we bottomed in April 2001 and we have had a peak at in late 2004 at $431. If we are still trying to make the 4.25 year cycle low it is possible that we could remain weak on the precious metals for the next year or so. The long term bull trend line is currently coming in around $340 and rising so if we broke through $400/$410 then a collapse to those levels is possible.

Major support for Gold remains at $400/$410 and if that zone is broken the trend would definitely change to the downside. But there is also a bullish case that suggests that we may just continue the upward trend."

If I understand both of you correctly, to summarise and project/estimate:

Gold Cycle
- 8.5yrs or 102mths
- 3 sub-cycles of 34mths
- Last bottom in 14/05/2004
- Nex bottom in *March 2007*
- Peak in *April 2008*
- Bottom in Oct 2009 (end of secular gold-bull)

Appreciate your thoughts and sharing.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Big bounce off $550ish today. According to the wave thoeries another dead cat?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Big bounce off $550ish today. According to the wave thoeries another dead cat?




I'm trading this as a reversion to the mean. There's that trendline to break before I'll hail the return of the bull.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: Gold 8.5yr Cycle*



			
				BlueDaze said:
			
		

> If I understand both of you correctly, to summarise and project/estimate:
> 
> Gold Cycle
> - 8.5yrs or 102mths
> - 3 sub-cycles of 34mths
> - Last bottom in 14/05/2004
> - Nex bottom in *March 2007*
> - Peak in *April 2008*
> - Bottom in Oct 2009 (end of secular gold-bull)
> 
> Appreciate your thoughts and sharing.





Hi Bluedaze,

I was not aware of Ray Merrimans cycle analysis. Thankyou for that. 
The only cycles analyst that I have heard is working with gold cycles is Tim Woods at:

http://www.cyclesman.com/
he mentions a 9 year cycle

I stumbled across the 8.5 cycle after quickly about 6 months ago in the monthly chart. This was  very easy to find as the 8.5Yr cycles low to low have been quite consistant over the last 30 yrs.

Those dates were only meant as a guide and should not be used in isolation for use in market timing. There are a number of reasons for this:-

-  Although market movements may appear periodic they in fact  are not(although in this case as mentioned before the 8.5Yr cycle appears to be remarkably consistant!!)

-market movements appear to exhibit motion that is more cyclic instead. By this I mean that they appear similiar but the period, amplitude and phase may vary slightly from cycle to cycle.

Sometimes when a cycle has been identified all of sudden it misses a beat and dissapaears only to re appear again in the future.

Cylces are dimensionless. This means that they do not have to line up exactly with a major low in prices. As stated before the expected low in Oct 2009 may or may not coincide with a lower low of wave A $542. 
It may just as easily coincide with a higher low after gold bottoms in the current correction. This is why it's important to have other tools as well at our disposal help us making our trading decisions.

If we are lucky enough to get a lower low that lines up with the bottom of the 8.5 yr cycle in 2009, then this maybe a point from which the current secular bull market in gold continues.

Cheers


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> I'm trading this as a reversion to the mean.



Which mean?

Except for this last year, the mean for gold must be way down in the $400's somewhere. 

GP


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Which mean?
> 
> Except for this last year, the mean for gold must be way down in the $400's somewhere.
> 
> GP




OH! OOPS! I was vague huh!

I meant the short term mean, probabably best represented a linear regression and/or ordinary trendline drawn from the high in the middle of May.

Cheers


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold Trading Tools*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> This is why it's important to have other tools as well at our disposal help us making our trading decisions.



Hi wavepicker, thanks for sharing your insights.

I base my gold-trading on simple rules of buying the dips to 50DMA and corrections to 200DMA.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?GLD

And during oversold conditions when RSI(14) is below 45, readings in the CCI(8) below -100, and Williams %R (Wm%R) over 80.

Based on these rules, I should have bought GLD yesterday. But nagging concerns based on the gold-cycle stayed my itchy hands... Richard Russell's "Gold: Best To Go Away" sealed the deal.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell061206.html

The upcoming FOMC on 28-29 June was also a concern. A hint of further Fed rate hikes could kill the gold-rally in its tracks.

If this turns out to be a false gold-rally, I am positioning myself to buy at the USD$493 level.

Btw, besides EW, what other trading tools do you use?


----------



## BlueDaze

*Cliff Droke - Gold Bottom Due in Early Sep 2006*

Just read Cliff Droke's "A look at the upcoming 8-year cycle bottom" (June 14, 2006).

http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/jun2006/061406/art061406.mgi

"The past few weeks have seen stocks and commodities (notably gold and silver) take a beating. After peaking in May (April in the case of the NASDAQ), several major indices have declined to lower lows and most recently hit lows for the year on Tuesday, June 13. The culprit behind this decline is the 8-year cycle. This important cycle is due to *bottom in September*.

A word about the 8-year cycle itself is in order. The 8-year cycle is a composite of the 2-year cycle, which bottoms in even numbered years. It's a component of the Kress 120-year cycle series with a total of 15 of these 8-year cycles within a given 120-year cycle (the most recent 120-year cycle began in 1894 and is due to bottom in 2014). The 8-year cycle tends to bottom sharply but usually gives way to sustained rallies in the months following the bottom (as in the months following 1998).

The coming 8-year cycle low due around the *early part of September* this year should allow for a similar opportunity to buy the lows of this important longer-term cycle, and hopefully ending what has been an extremely volatile period for stocks and commodities."

He is new to me so I can't judge his accurancy.

But his tendency to cite various multi-year cycles casts doubt in my mind... akin to astrology.

Gold and the 6-year cycle (September 27, 2005)
http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/sep2005/092705/art092705.mgi

The 10-year cycle and its effects (April 7th, 2004)
http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/sep2005/092705/art092705.mgi

wavepicker, your thoughts?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Blue, I'm beginning to think these 'waves' are a self fullfiling prophecy! If enough people think it will happen, it will. More of this, and I know when to buy and sell. Cheers!


----------



## tonyc

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Gold Market Update 

Gold and Silver are deeply oversold and thus present a rare buying opportunity.
The devastating 188$ sell off have cleaned most of the speculative long gold positions and attracted speculative short gold positions. This is the time to be cautiously bullish. Long term Investors (savings) should just take a position and hold it for years to come. I highly recommend that you get at least some physical gold and keep it handy. 

Traders should be extremely careful and manage risk wisely. I do not recommend trading gold for no one but the most professional experienced traders. Holding a long term gold short position is a death wish in my opinion. Is this time shorts are going to sweat – time will tell…


Technically Gold have completed an Impulsive extended correction wave 2 of [ 3] , The next up move could be quiet long (3 0f [3]) and there is a good chance it will extended more then 313$ and will probably challenge the all time high gold price (1980). Interesting times head. 



Gold & Silver Global Perspective


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Blue, I'm beginning to think these 'waves' are a self fullfiling prophecy! If enough people think it will happen, it will. More of this, and I know when to buy and sell. Cheers!




I wish that was the case kennas, but Elliott Waves are very subjective.
Ask 10 people to label the same chart and you will probably get 10 different answers and twice as many alternate scenarios!!!


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> I wish that was the case kennas, but Elliott Waves are very subjective.
> Ask 10 people to label the same chart and you will probably get 10 different answers and twice as many alternate scenarios!!!




...and most likey a punch-up!


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: Cliff Droke - Gold Bottom Due in Early Sep 2006*



			
				BlueDaze said:
			
		

> Just read Cliff Droke's "A look at the upcoming 8-year cycle bottom" (June 14, 2006).
> 
> http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/jun2006/061406/art061406.mgi
> 
> "The past few weeks have seen stocks and commodities (notably gold and silver) take a beating. After peaking in May (April in the case of the NASDAQ), several major indices have declined to lower lows and most recently hit lows for the year on Tuesday, June 13. The culprit behind this decline is the 8-year cycle. This important cycle is due to *bottom in September*.
> 
> A word about the 8-year cycle itself is in order. The 8-year cycle is a composite of the 2-year cycle, which bottoms in even numbered years. It's a component of the Kress 120-year cycle series with a total of 15 of these 8-year cycles within a given 120-year cycle (the most recent 120-year cycle began in 1894 and is due to bottom in 2014). The 8-year cycle tends to bottom sharply but usually gives way to sustained rallies in the months following the bottom (as in the months following 1998).
> 
> The coming 8-year cycle low due around the *early part of September* this year should allow for a similar opportunity to buy the lows of this important longer-term cycle, and hopefully ending what has been an extremely volatile period for stocks and commodities."
> 
> He is new to me so I can't judge his accurancy.
> 
> But his tendency to cite various multi-year cycles casts doubt in my mind... akin to astrology.
> 
> Gold and the 6-year cycle (September 27, 2005)
> http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/sep2005/092705/art092705.mgi
> 
> The 10-year cycle and its effects (April 7th, 2004)
> http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/sep2005/092705/art092705.mgi
> 
> wavepicker, your thoughts?




Cliff and a whole host of other gold bug rampers in gold forums have been bullish for as long as I remember. As for a 120 Yr cycle, one has to laugh!! I did not know we market data on gold going back more than 120Yrs was available?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Holy goat batman! Has the dead cat just woken up and started scaling next doors tree? Or, is it just a spasm? Come on cat, keep climbing; but a little more steadily this time!


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold Rally - Danger or Opportunity?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> In the short term, this wave A "washout" will find support between this price and $530, and will base for a strong sucker rally.



Do you mean it will rally up then fall back to below $530?

I regularly read tonyc's blog, and deeply respect his contributions. That price-chart he posted is certainly "alluring".

I am really tempted to buy a bit of GLD now... at least at $55 or $53, if there is a pullback.

Greed and fear are such strong pullers.


----------



## coyotte

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

IMHO the 1st query I would have of any cycle is WHY ?
The 4 year SP500 / DowI cycle is answered by US Pres Elections -- heance a simple logical explanation
Just to say it is allways so , harks back to a lecture I attended decades ago on "Probability Therory " a underlying point was made
 ( for decades it had been noted that Sun Spots occured @ regular intervals --- so it had become simple to PREDICT when the next one would occur --- well apparentlly this theory got blown out the water when they started to appear out of sync. --- It took a UK Uni Prof to come forward with the Theory that they were caused by excess gas pressures building up & working their way to the surface --- now they where predictable , because aparentlly  they can measure these gas pressures  --- hence predict the size & timeing


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Coyote, What the?

No more wine for you!

Actually, I heard tonight that the tsunami off Sumatra last year was caused by a sun flair! Is that the same as a sun spot? 

How does that effect the POG? 

Interesting..........


----------



## BlueDaze

*Wave After Wave*

Another POG cycle-theory by Stephen Rinehart (December 19, 2005)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/rinehart/2005/QL/1219.html

The passage of time shows a number of forecasts are off. Eg. understimating the POG in 2006.

But these are the parts that interest me:

"We continue to believe that the real Stage II rally will launch off the coming bottom of the 86-month cycle in July/Aug 2006.

The chart shows a predictable growth in the price of Gold from August 2004 with a mid-2006 correction and a strong move upwards to over $600 an ounce by late 2007.

The Stage II parabolas will be setting up with this bottom in 2006 and the gold rush is on for years to come but with a lot of volatility (especially in 2009). 

Chart 4 shows the detrended price of Gold from August 2007 thru 2009. It is predicting a wild downside move in gold after Feb 2009. It could happen six months early or late."

Was 12 May 2006 the correction, 13 June 2006 the bottom, and now the start of another gold-rally?

Oh, if only I've a crystal-ball to see the future!


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: Wave After Wave*



			
				BlueDaze said:
			
		

> Another POG cycle-theory by Stephen Rinehart (December 19, 2005)
> 
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/rinehart/2005/QL/1219.html
> 
> Chart 4 shows the detrended price of Gold from August 2007 thru 2009. It is predicting a wild downside move in gold after Feb 2009. It could happen six months early or late."




6 months early I think!







thx

MS


----------



## crackaton

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

So we still have two years of good times


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I have to clarify a previous post of mine where I think it was misunderstood. It seems to have been interpreted that previous tech analysis/cycle theory was not valid. What was intended was that technology may these days distort cycle lengths due to speed of information and greater liquidity, ie bigger, sharper movements within a shorter timeframe.

History can indeed be a precurser to the future. Back in the crash of 29 gold stocks were sold off along with other stocks but eventually rebounded to outperform the rest of the market. 
-------------
There seems to be a theory that rising interest rates will/should put a dampener on the pog. In a 'normal' market this would probably be the case; just look at how effective Paul Volcker was when he raised rates aggressivly, which killed the last gold bull. But 'this time it's different' I think, as we may be witnessing the slow demise of the current world currency, the $US. So the question is wether interest rates are being raised to ward off inflation or to prop up the $US. This is critical in determining the future pog, irrespective of technical analysis and cycle thoeries, in that what's happening now has not had a (recent) precedent, apart from the decline of the British pound some 80 years ago. 
-------------
I follow Paul Van Eedens commentaries which seem to make sense to me, without the usual gold bug hype.
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/index.php

PS these cycle theory 'predictions' are very amusing - how does anybody know what's going to happen in the future   eg big crash after such n such a  date??.


----------



## lewstherin

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

An interesting news bite about gold sales for the rest of the year:

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimesNEW/business/business1150721240.aspx

Comments?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Interesting that China, India, Taiwan haven't increased their holdings this quarter. There was a lot of talk about that occurring. Is this article 'the facts'? 

It does say also they are _expected_ to increase reserves due to weakening US$, but as yet no move...


----------



## scsl

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

speaking of a weakening USD, does the following point in this article still apply? i'm just a bit confused because i read in the lead on to the below article that:

_*More confusion will come when the dollar starts to fall in the face of rising interest rates * (see: http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=101) *and that is when gold will truly shine.* When that happens we could very well see the gold price rise while other metals prices fall since gold, unlike the other metals, is not a commodity._

...and then i have read recently that "the Aussie dollar rose on interest rate concerns in the United States". i just thought that the dollar would fall with rising interest rates.

*Dollar weakness and higher interest rates: how it works*
February 10, 2005

_For more than a year now I have been commenting that the dollar has to decline in the face of rising interest rates for the gold price (in US dollars) to sustain a meaningful rally. Every time I make that comment, someone points out that rising interest rates typically result in stronger currencies. Therefore, why would the dollar fall if interest rates are rising?

History repeats, but never exactly. While there are often precedents for current situations the circumstances are rarely identical, so we have to be careful when we make assumptions based on past experiences or events.

It is true that higher interest rates typically lead to stronger currencies, but the US balance sheet, income statement and dollar are in uncharted waters and never has globalization been as prevalent as it is now. Japan owns roughly seven hundred billion dollars worth of US Treasury securities and China has in the order of two hundred billion dollars.

Were it not for Japan and China, the US dollar would be trading a lot lower than where it is today. During the past decade the United States has racked up enormous trade deficits with those two countries. Under normal circumstances the net amount of dollars (trade deficit) paid to foreign corporations would be sold on foreign exchange markets. As the trade deficit widens, ever more dollars are sold, putting pressure on the dollar to decline. Eventually the weakening dollar would cause the prices of imported goods to rise and the rising costs of imports would ameliorate the trade deficit. This is the free market's natural balancing system. 

But Japan and China wanted to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the dollar. Put another way, they wanted to prevent the dollar from falling in response to the rising trade deficit. So instead of selling the excess dollars into the foreign exchange markets they used them to buy US Treasuries. This kept the dollars out of the foreign exchange markets and helped the US finance its budget deficits. 

It was a win-win situation -- or so it seemed. The US could spend, and spend, and spend... and Japan and China would send their savings over to finance the binge. Now, however, the situation has gotten so out of hand that there is mounting pressure on China to let its currency, the renminbi, float against the dollar.

Calling for a stronger renminbi is in essence the same as calling for a weaker dollar. Now let's go back to the mechanism that kept the renminbi, and the Japanese yen, from rising against the dollar: excess dollars were invested in US Treasuries instead of being sold into the foreign exchange markets.

If the Japanese and Chinese are to let their currencies appreciate against the dollar it also means that they will start selling more dollars into the foreign exchange markets and that means they will have less dollars to invest in US Treasuries.

This is not trivial matter. Between January and November last year, Japan and China bought about thirty percent of all the new Treasury securities the United States issued. Even a small decline in the amount of US Treasury purchases by Japan and China could have a dramatic effect on US interest rates.

If the demand for US Treasury securities (bonds) declines then bond prices are likely to decline as well. US interest rates are determined by US bond prices: if bond prices fall, interest rates rise. Therefore a decline in demand for US Treasuries from Japan and China means an increase in interest rates for the US.

Now let's go back to the free market mechanism again. If Japan and China allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar it also means that they will sell more of the dollars that are accumulating from the US trade deficit into the foreign exchange markets. This additional dollar-supply will result in the renminbi and yen strengthening, and the dollar weakening. It is precisely what the US and Europe are asking China to do.

So a revaluation of the renminbi will cause more dollars to be sold (downward pressure on the US dollar exchange rate) and less US Treasury securities to be purchased (downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on interest rates). Also, if China lets its currency appreciate then I doubt that Japan will continue to try and support the dollar by itself. So the same goes for Japan.

Now, we can argue for days and weeks about how severe the dollar decline will be, how high interest rates will go, what impact that will have on the US economy and, by extension on the global economy. The bottom line is that China will most likely allow its currency to rise this year; Japan will follow suit. That is the same as saying the dollar will continue to decline only this time against the Asian currencies as opposed to the euro and other Western currencies. And, as you saw, the decline in the dollar will occur simultaneously with rising US interest rates.

As a result the gold price, in US dollars, will continue to rise, punctuated perhaps by talk of IMF gold sales and other miscellaneous events.

This rise in the gold price, as has been the case for the past three years, is mostly a dollar phenomenon. It's a bear market in the dollar, not a bull market in gold. 

Paul van Eeden_

http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=101


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

sooo much negativity on the US Dollar!!

Does not surprise I guess, as most punters like projecting the current trend into the future. Would not surprise me to see things pan out quite differently however.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

0015 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold last $575.20/oz, holding most of gains in NY after probing below $560 in HK yesterday. Macquarie Bank says general mood towards gold positive, fundamentals still strong, but investors so far cautious moving back into market. Notes spot gold's bounce last week off $543, near upper end of trend channel, just above key support where prices started latest cycle of multiyear rally in February. Also says short-term moving average has started to turn up, which might be initial signal immediate price downturn might have ended; adds buy signal will emerge once price pierces longer-term averages.(RCB)


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

On the Kitco chart, gold is currently flat-lining.

Any ideas why?

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

GP,


Just looked at it too - thanks for the heads up - I was kind of wondering why my gold tracking on my toolbar was static!

This is very odd... investigating...


Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hello GP,


COMEX seems to have been trading all this time, maybe it's at Kitco...

Kitco's charts are functioning now.


Magdoran


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

There's a bit of promise in gold staging a decent rally here.

There's that capitulation low we all saw a few days ago, now a higher low in place as of yestarday, and a near vertical $17 move since shortly after the open of the pit session.

New highs??? Dunno 'bout that, but a useful rally hopefully.

Got my genuine imitation bull horns on for now


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

I'm all for that, as I bought a few of those ZAUWBA call warrants a few days ago.

If it breaks the down-trend line soon, I might buy a few more.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> I'm all for that, as I bought a few of those ZAUWBA call warrants a few days ago.
> 
> If it breaks the down-trend line soon, I might buy a few more.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP







http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund061406.html


----------



## wayneL

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> There's a bit of promise in gold staging a decent rally here.
> 
> There's that capitulation low we all saw a few days ago, now a higher low in place as of yestarday, and a near vertical $17 move since shortly after the open of the pit session.
> 
> New highs??? Dunno 'bout that, but a useful rally hopefully.
> 
> Got my genuine imitation bull horns on for now




Bull horns back in the cupboard.

The black bear has just gone short.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Bull horns back in the cupboard.
> 
> The black bear has just gone short.




Hi Wayne,

Personally like you I still think there is more downside here, but I reckon volatility and the rate of change of price will slow form here, with price either 
consolidating in a medium sideways pattern before putting further lows or slowly ratcheting down.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

0052 GMT [Dow Jones] National Australia Bank ratchets up spot gold forecasts to average US$633/oz this year, US$753 (or A$1,000-plus) in 2007, reflecting year-to-date price increases. Views pullback from mid-May high US$730 to US$582.45 now as correction in ongoing bull market driven by anticipated US rate decreases from 2007 given weakened economic outlook. "Gold investment demand should remain the key driving factor in coming months - supported by geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and incentives to diversify away from US dollar assets," bank says in quarterly review. (JAD)


----------



## GreatPig

kennas said:
			
		

> National Australia Bank ratchets up spot gold forecasts to average US$633/oz this year, US$753 (or A$1,000-plus) in 2007



I wish it would hurry up...  

GP


----------



## GreatPig

Ever the hopeful bear...

(this is the current market depth for Gold Corp call warrants)

Cheers,
GP


----------



## GreatPig

After quite a struggle to get there, it looks like it might be starting to stay above $600 again.

Hopefully it won't just be a short-lived burst.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Sean K

Looks tenuous to me GP. Might keep going, but further consolidation likely just under the mark, before pushing on. I am very happy for some sideways action in the short term so it builds a solid base of buying and OWNERSHIP. Then it can spike again. Off back to $700 by end of year. Let's hope it just sneaks up there this time instead of the hot speccie money jumping in creating another 'bubble' situ.  Long term, easy money.


----------



## Magdoran

Currently the Gold chart looks bearish to me for the next month or so.

I would expect it to either rally briefly from here and fail, or to move to a fast trend down immediately.

I'll attach a couple of charts to illustrate the reasoning behind this.


----------



## professor_frink

hi magdoran, that's an interesting chart you've posted! It's a gann chart isn't it? would you be able to explain it a bit for types that don't know much about it?


----------



## MalteseBull

*GOLD 612* and SILVER UP TOO

looking good with geopolitical news lifting...

SBM, RCO should smash 'em Monday both over 60c


----------



## LPA

Gold has broken through it's resistance at $610 - hopefully if it maintains that at next open the bull shall return


----------



## wavepicker

I agree with Magdoran,


I believe this rally will fizzle out in the $615-$660 zone.  As stated in earlier a posts, a relief rally was expected, to correct the large down move. When this rally finishes, volatility and rate of change of price should start to slow, and price should slowly ratchet down to lower levels and build a longer term base.

Interesting that Magdoran has resistance in time at approximately the 4th of July. This is when I would expect other indices to have a similar resistance in time.

At this point there is no reason to get excited about the move in gold. Only a close above $684 will change my mind. I held the bull phase from April 2001 till April this year. Once again, In no hurry to jump back in just yet.

Cheers

*- I am not qualified to give financial advice- any comments stated regarding the probabilities of financial market movements are purely personal opinions and observations. Any charts posted are for educational purposes only for intersted parties. It should be recognized that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.


----------



## wayneL

Folks

IMO

Keep a close eye on the Fed. Gold is rising because the helicopter boy and his corrupt cabal of private bankers are being punished for having undersized gonads.

Everybody know they should have raised 0.5%, but the panty waisted slime only raised .25, tanking the US dollar.

The rise in gold is primarily US$ based, but of course the speculaters, all of us included, hop on the bus, pushing POG up in real terms as well.

The Fed won't stand for this because of the threat of a USD apocalypse... they'll prop the dollar, stalling any real run on Gold.

It doesn't mean don't be on it, but it means to keep an eye of ALL the mitigating factors.

Cheers


----------



## Magdoran

Hello All


I have received some interesting personal messages on my Gold post.  I accept that this is just an interpretation of the limited information I have though chart forecasting.  It is possible for a sideways move to occur from here, or even a bullish drive to exceed the current major high.  However, I concur with Wavepicker's analysis in this situation.

I probably should have explained my thinking for making such a contrarian call.  This is a short term forecast, and does not apply to the longer term projections for Gold of which I am uncertain.  I think that there is a reasonable probability for another leg down. My thinking is based on the idea that this is a blow off move, and that time and price have overbalanced. 

Of course it’s possible that Gold may skyrocket immediately from here. But with the movements in the US bond market which is in a strong downtrend (although last nights price action saw a strong rally), effectively raising interest rates, coupled with the ongoing FED rate rises, which look in my opinion likely to continue, and the strengthening of the Us dollar in the short term, and with oil poised potentially to run up to test $90 within 3 months, that this may dent the advances in gold for the short term.

Downward moves can “motor up” very quickly, and move on very small volumes before they find support.  My suspicion is that we have at least one more test down to wash out the sellers before resumption. Have a look at the pattern of trend in Gold when it has had blow off moves, say back in the late 70’s, and see what it does when it makes vertical styled moves. 

Specifically look at the pattern in Jan-March in 1980, and compare it with the current pattern. There could be a retest of the current low, either exceeding it, or making a marginal higher low. From the current price action, I favour a new low.

I think it will find resistance on Tuesday with a target price around 624.25, then pull back from here.  If a bearish drive doesn’t eventuate, then I’d favour a sideways basing pattern to eventuate.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Captain G

Hi Magdoran, just very curious, but why will oil be poised to potentially run up to test $90 within 3 months ?? 
Cheers, Capt.


----------



## wayneL

Magdoran said:
			
		

> ...with oil poised potentially to run up to test $90 within 3 months




Now that would put the cat amongst the pigeons.


----------



## Magdoran

> *Originally posted by professor frink*
> 
> hi magdoran, that's an interesting chart you've posted! It's a gann chart isn't it? would you be able to explain it a bit for types that don't know much about it?




Hello professor frink,


Yes, the top chart is a Gann chart.  While I’d love to answer your question succinctly, this is very difficult to answer in one post.  To illustrate the multifaceted nature of Gann interpretations, just do a Google search on the net, and you’ll see what I mean.

There are many approaches to Gann, and this particular chart is using specific techniques - I used a custom Gann square aiming to forecast in both time and price. This particular square is using a time cycle combined with corresponding price increments and “time angles”. 

That probably doesn’t mean much since this kind of approach like any is made up of conceptual components. Essentially there are a variety of conflicting approaches (some would say schools of thought) in interpreting Gann.

I suppose the approach I’ve utilised focuses on the pattern, allied with time cycles and squares, although I do occasionally use “true trend lines” and “zero angles”.  I’ve also combined this with a Gann revision of Elliott too which adds another dimension.  But I’m not a Gann purist in the sense that some people believe anything that Gann said is gospel, on the contrary, I think that any body of knowledge is flawed and can be improved on with revision.  

Hence I don’t really use the “square of 9” much, or subscribe to the astrologists/planetary cycle/ephemeris based schools (you’ve seen Yogi’s posts – especially his emphasis on the “bible codes” and Tunnel Through the Air – I just don’t get these at all, but maybe he’s onto something, I just don’t know – Hi Yogi!), although there are some common elements of course, but radically different approaches.

The key idea for me in my interpretation is to find patterns which allow for forecasting outcomes in both time and price, and assessing probabilities.  But as you can imagine, while some of the core concepts seem simple, utilising them in practice is another matter.  It takes a long time to really integrate all the elements, and you never really stop learning.

I hope this helps a little as a first pass.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

> *Originally posted by Captain G *
> 
> Hi Magdoran, just very curious, but why will oil be poised to potentially run up to test $90 within 3 months ??
> Cheers, Capt.




Hello Captain G,


I had intended to post on the oil thread, but ran out of time…

I did say “potential” by the way, and this is based on the idea that crude and Brent oil have consolidated and may have a fast move up.  

If you extend the previous range from low to high before the consolidation and extend this 100%, you get $93.07. Depending on the price action over the next few days (if we get a higher low), could see oil drive up hard.  If you look at the nature of trend in oil, often consolidations become 50% levels into the future.  If this is so, it is quite conceivable oil may drive to the 100% extension (if not, maybe 50%, or 25% etc etc – you’d have to see the chart – which is not finished yet – I don’t have the time figured out).

A fly in the ointment is what HUSpotV (unleaded futures) will do.  I have a theory that it is fuel and not pharmaceuticals and other ancillary products from cracking plants and refineries that drive the price.  I think fuels are the key driver, and secondarily lubrication.

Friday’s HUSpotV could reverse from here, it opened, spiked up, then closed near the opening – potentially a false break, and maybe a reversal.  My suspicion is that it is a temporary pull back before a fast trend up, but I could be wrong, and will be watching as events unfold.  

But I do see the potential for a very strong bullish drive if oil can break up, and make a higher low above the consolidation – nice bullish volume confirming the move would help too…

Hope that makes sense, but you’d have to see the charts to really see what I’m getting at… will try to do this before I fly out on Monday…


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## michael_selway

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hello Captain G,
> 
> 
> I had intended to post on the oil thread, but ran out of time…
> 
> I did say “potential” by the way, and this is based on the idea that crude and Brent oil have consolidated and may have a fast move up.
> 
> If you extend the previous range from low to high before the consolidation and extend this 100%, you get $93.07. Depending on the price action over the next few days (if we get a higher low), could see oil drive up hard.  If you look at the nature of trend in oil, often consolidations become 50% levels into the future.  If this is so, it is quite conceivable oil may drive to the 100% extension (if not, maybe 50%, or 25% etc etc – you’d have to see the chart – which is not finished yet – I don’t have the time figured out).
> 
> A fly in the ointment is what HUSpotV (unleaded futures) will do.  I have a theory that it is fuel and not pharmaceuticals and other ancillary products from cracking plants and refineries that drive the price.  I think fuels are the key driver, and secondarily lubrication.
> 
> Friday’s HUSpotV could reverse from here, it opened, spiked up, then closed near the opening – potentially a false break, and maybe a reversal.  My suspicion is that it is a temporary pull back before a fast trend up, but I could be wrong, and will be watching as events unfold.
> 
> But I do see the potential for a very strong bullish drive if oil can break up, and make a higher low above the consolidation – nice bullish volume confirming the move would help too…
> 
> Hope that makes sense, but you’d have to see the charts to really see what I’m getting at… will try to do this before I fly out on Monday…
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran




hi thx, so in short, for gold, are u bullish or bearish on gold based on the charts above etc

thx

MS


----------



## Magdoran

Hello Michael,


Depends on the time frame. Short term the pattern looks to me like Gold needs to pull back (I suspect we’re in an Elliott wave 4 (simple) since we had a complex wave 2 – using rules of alternation – and we didn’t get a “two thrust” “ABC” correction, hence I suspect this is at least a 5 wave correction to the current 5 year bullish cycle – I hope this makes sense…). 

Longer term, the jury is still out…


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

Ok, Just posted up the oil charts in "Oil again".


----------



## professor_frink

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hello professor frink,
> 
> 
> Yes, the top chart is a Gann chart.  While I’d love to answer your question succinctly, this is very difficult to answer in one post.  To illustrate the multifaceted nature of Gann interpretations, just do a Google search on the net, and you’ll see what I mean.
> 
> There are many approaches to Gann, and this particular chart is using specific techniques - I used a custom Gann square aiming to forecast in both time and price. This particular square is using a time cycle combined with corresponding price increments and “time angles”.
> 
> That probably doesn’t mean much since this kind of approach like any is made up of conceptual components. Essentially there are a variety of conflicting approaches (some would say schools of thought) in interpreting Gann.
> 
> I suppose the approach I’ve utilised focuses on the pattern, allied with time cycles and squares, although I do occasionally use “true trend lines” and “zero angles”.  I’ve also combined this with a Gann revision of Elliott too which adds another dimension.  But I’m not a Gann purist in the sense that some people believe anything that Gann said is gospel, on the contrary, I think that any body of knowledge is flawed and can be improved on with revision.
> 
> Hence I don’t really use the “square of 9” much, or subscribe to the astrologists/planetary cycle/ephemeris based schools (you’ve seen Yogi’s posts – especially his emphasis on the “bible codes” and Tunnel Through the Air – I just don’t get these at all, but maybe he’s onto something, I just don’t know – Hi Yogi!), although there are some common elements of course, but radically different approaches.
> 
> The key idea for me in my interpretation is to find patterns which allow for forecasting outcomes in both time and price, and assessing probabilities.  But as you can imagine, while some of the core concepts seem simple, utilising them in practice is another matter.  It takes a long time to really integrate all the elements, and you never really stop learning.
> 
> I hope this helps a little as a first pass.
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran





Thanks magdoran, I know I was asking a question that was going to be difficult to answer in one post! I'm aware of how complicated and multifaceted gann can be, and as confusing as your reply was, I should be able to figure out what you were just saying


----------



## BlueDaze

*Marc Faber: Global Economy Will Slow Down Now*

Marc Faber: Global Economy Will Slow Down Now 

Excerpts with CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Marc Faber.

*Do you think that investors are losing their appetite for risk? * 

I think what has happened is that the rise in interest rates is symptomatic of relative tightening. I wouldn't call it a tightening in earnest because the rate of inflation is probably somewhat higher than the Fed fund rate in the US. Credit growth actually accelerated in the first quarter of this year in the US very sharply and so we don't have an absolute tightening. 

However, liquidity in the world is not growing as rapidly as before and the market started to sell-off from a technically weak position, which is what I would call an impulsive downward move. This may continue for a while and I may add that frequently markets change direction and one doesn't know exactly why they change direction, this may only come to foreground six months hence. 

In other words, market can go up and one doesn't know exactly why, but then suddenly six months or a year later you know why, because there was such an improvement. Equally a market can begin to sell off for reasons that we don't know yet exactly, but that will come forward in the future. 

*So you are basically saying that 'boom markets' need liquidity in order to be sustained and right now with interest rates going up liquidity is going down, so does that mean that possibly we are on the cusp of a bear market? * 

I wouldn't say that you just need liquidity; you need an acceleration of liquidity growth to sustain a very strong bull market. When liquidity growth slows down you can have a slump. 

For example in the Middle East, we had rising oil prices and rising oil production between 2000 and 2005, whereas we still have record oil prices and same oil production. So, in other words there is still plenty of liquidity in the Middle East, but it is not growing as rapidly as before. This implies liquidity is growing at a decelerating rate and so suddenly the markets in the Middle East were down 50%. 

I think this is happening throughout the world, and there is relative tightening. There is an absolute tightening in Japan, in the sense the monetary base that doubled between 1999 and 2005 is now contracting. 

*So now rates are about to go up in Japan? What does it mean, the Yen such a popular choice for carry trade, that is a huge source of liquidity drying up, which do you think will be the first asset classes to tumble? * 

In this environment, we have to look back at what happened since October 2002, when these bull markets in assets began and we should probably stay away for the time being. Here I am talking about the next 3-6 months and thereafter we will have to review the situation. 

*So anything that shot up over the past couple of years since 2003, you think now is a good time to get out of? * 

When markets begin to decline in an impulsive fashion such as we had recently in the US and in other markets, one just doesn't know if it is a correction or is it something more serious, namely a bear market. A correction would be defined by, 'a market that goes up like India to 12,600 and drops to around 9,000 and subsequently in the next 6-12 months makes a new high around 14,000, 15,000,' that would be a correction. 

A bear market would be defined as 'an Indian market that went to 12,600, drops to around 9,000, rebounds and then goes down again and doesn't make new highs for the next 6-12 months.' That I would consider a bear market and one doesn't know in the world, whether we are not faced with something more serious. 

I would also emphasize that the best time to buy stocks is obviously when the global economic outlook looks disastrous. The best time to sell stocks is when everything is booming such as now. 

Because a booming global economy drains money out of the financial markets into real economic activity, namely down payments for condominiums, capacity expansion, building of entire new cities, and so forth. So that is not particularly a good environment for financial assets. 

*A few years ago you told everybody to buy gold, you were right. Then you went and told everybody to sell gold because it is going to go below $600. Where to from here? * 

I would like to put this in the context that I think long-term gold is relatively attractive. But obviously like so many other commodities it overshot in just a speculative pinch when it went to $720 recently. Now that money has relatively tightened and that interest rates have gone up somewhat and the US dollar has stabilised, I think that the gold price obviously had the declined to around $530 and now it has rebounded to $580. I think *it can go back to around $485.20*. 

Then I will definitely be a buyer of gold through the longer-term. I wouldn't necessarily sell my own gold positions because I hold them as kind of an insurance policy against irresponsible central bankers that sooner or later will print money. 

They can tighten for a while now and try to gain credibility but I think in the case of the US in the long run the Federal Reserve will essentially increase the supply and the quantity of money. That will lead to essentially a higher gold price over time. Not to mention the Asian central banks that have a very low exposure to gold. They will over time I suppose also increase the portion of their reserves that they will hold in gold. 

*How serious do you think investors should take the recent break that we have seen in commodity prices in general? * 

We had more than 20 years of a bear market in commodities that ended between 1999 and 2001, then essentially 5 years into bull market for commodities. I think a significant correction was overdue. You shouldn't forget that the price of copper for instance went from 60 cents a pound to over $4 a pound in 4 years. 

So you can have a significant correction. I would like to add that for instance in the last great bull market for commodities, wheat, corn and sugar already peaked out in 73 and thereafter although other commodities went up, these commodities didn't make a new high. 

My view is that the global economy now will slow down and that you shouldn't be in industrial commodities, since they are now more vulnerable. 

*Gold on the other hand is not an industrial commodity, it is much a currency*, as a commodity it is jewellery. It would seem to me that in this environment we will face first tightening and then money printing. Gold will be relatively resilient having also risen much less than say the price of oil or price of nickel and copper over the last couple of years. 

*Why is copper seen as a proxy for largecap resource stocks? * 

Basically copper is a proxy for industrial production and the proxy for the incremental demand that has come from China. It has some other peculiarities. There are some supply constraints in the copper industry; it is very difficult to find new copper mines and to bring them on stream and so forth. If we look at copper the question obviously would be for an investor to either buy physical copper or also in the case of gold to either buy physical gold or to either buy mining shares in that produced copper or produced gold. 

I would *only buy gold and copper mining shares that own the reserves in politically very stable country such as Canada, Australia, the United States * and even with some reluctance for the simple reason that globally we have a move in countries that have resources such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, even Mongolia to tax mining companies much more heavily. 

In other words it is very difficult to justify for Freeport, if I come over to earn billions of dollars and the worker at Grasper in Indonesia, they earn their $80 a month. So the local people want a bigger stake in their resources, which is absolutely normal, and in my opinion quite fair. 

So the mining companies may actually not realize the expected profits in the future whereas the physical if they are supply constrains or disruptions because local people would choose to say block the shipments of copper then you could have a rise in the physical price of a commodity. But not in the rise in the share prices of that commodity. 

*How will gold, the dollar and gold mining stocks fare over the medium and near-term? * 

Basically, we had this big bull market in gold 2001 onwards and we have recently gone to as high as $720, and the correction is now underway. I think *this correction is not quite over yet* and I wouldn't be surprised to see *gold between $480 and $550*. 

However, in the long run gold will outperform US financial assets and since year 2000 the Dow Jones has lost half its value compared to gold. The US dollar has lost more than half its value against gold and I think that trend will continue, so if the question is how do you maintain your purchasing power then I think it is quite a desirable investment to hold some gold. 

I don't think gold will go down to where some observers predict that the deflation is that it will drop to $250. If gold is $250 then the whole world will collapse.


----------



## phoenixrising

North korea tested 3 missiles today. What are the odds of a bullish day for gold? Good I think.


----------



## wavepicker

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hello All
> 
> 
> I have received some interesting personal messages on my Gold post.  I accept that this is just an interpretation of the limited information I have though chart forecasting.  It is possible for a sideways move to occur from here, or even a bullish drive to exceed the current major high.  However, I concur with Wavepicker's analysis in this situation.
> 
> I probably should have explained my thinking for making such a contrarian call.  This is a short term forecast, and does not apply to the longer term projections for Gold of which I am uncertain.  I think that there is a reasonable probability for another leg down. My thinking is based on the idea that this is a blow off move, and that time and price have overbalanced.
> 
> Of course it’s possible that Gold may skyrocket immediately from here. But with the movements in the US bond market which is in a strong downtrend (although last nights price action saw a strong rally), effectively raising interest rates, coupled with the ongoing FED rate rises, which look in my opinion likely to continue, and the strengthening of the Us dollar in the short term, and with oil poised potentially to run up to test $90 within 3 months, that this may dent the advances in gold for the short term.
> 
> Downward moves can “motor up” very quickly, and move on very small volumes before they find support.  My suspicion is that we have at least one more test down to wash out the sellers before resumption. Have a look at the pattern of trend in Gold when it has had blow off moves, say back in the late 70’s, and see what it does when it makes vertical styled moves.
> 
> Specifically look at the pattern in Jan-March in 1980, and compare it with the current pattern. There could be a retest of the current low, either exceeding it, or making a marginal higher low. From the current price action, I favour a new low.
> 
> I think it will find resistance on Tuesday with a target price around 624.25, then pull back from here.  If a bearish drive doesn’t eventuate, then I’d favour a sideways basing pattern to eventuate.
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran






Hello Magdoran,

From what I can see this short term forecast may work out OK. This upward rally looks like being just a technical correction. Price has rallied to our target zone of $615-$650 as expected some weeks ago. Three waves unfold against the one larger trend. The one larger trend in this case appears to be down. (Even though the very long term trend is still upward in my opinion) I would expect prices to go into a "sideways consolidation" between now and putting in another low at a later stage(perhaps 1 year away or longer)  before this correction is well and truly finished.

For now, by your time factor analysis we have reached a critical juncture. The only question that remains is: will prices rally upward a little further before turning down again? At present I have labelled blue wave Y to have parity in terms of length with wave X. Giving us a target of $630 which has just been reached. This current level and 50% of the range down of $636  should be a strong cluster of resistance. Only a close above the 3/4 level(0.75) @ $684 would invalidate this scenario to a more bullish one (Refer chart below.)

A month ago I posted a chart on this thread with my long term opinion on gold. Have re posted this for your info. It most likely won't play out to script!! But this is my opinion at a probable pattern in the longer term based on EW theory that I have previously observed. I am sticking to the ultimate longer term $490 target(50% of the range of the bull cycle) as previously stated for this correction to finish. However it may go as low as $450 as that is where the span of the previous 4th wave lies and a common area where correction finish. Will have to look at that when the time approaches

I would expect the larger bear trend to continue across the metals and even in the XAO. Only a close above 5195pts would change my mind to a more bullish case and invalidate my highest probable scenarios in the All Ordinaries.

Cheers

*- I am not qualified to give financial advice- any comments stated regarding the probabilities of financial market movements are purely personal opinions and observations. Any charts posted are for educational purposes only for intersted parties. It should be recognized that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.


----------



## Magdoran

Clearly the time projection did not stop the bullish move.

The probability of a bullish resumption is now obviously higher.

The charts tell the story.

If there is a pull back from here, a higher low could give a bullish signal, but the key resistance as suggested by wavepicker is still in contention.   The  ¼ mark is still a level that needs to be broken…

Next weeks price action will give more clues, but the current pattern is not conforming to what I was expecting for a short trade currently, although I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a pull back from here.

If the projected pattern would have occurred, a sharp pullback had a good probability.  Now, there are too many buyers in evidence for a panic move down.  Also, the pull back in the US dollar and the recent upward movement in US bonds (lowering the effective interest rate yield) is helping the bullish movement in Gold currently.


Magdoran


----------



## Profitseeker

I was not expecting a jump like that last night. Is this the begining of the next surge?


----------



## DB008

Still a bit off my $740 trigger point for my warrant. Gee did l get the timing wrong a few months ago.


----------



## Profitseeker

Looks like it is reaction to the bombings in India.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Its funny but on its previous ride up I saw $540, $620, $720 as key resistance levels, once up and through the change in polarity insured that $620 and $540 became support levels if they were ever tested,


Well when the downswing came, $620 didn't hold but $540 did!!!!!, I was worried when $620 didn't hold as I thought, hmmmm its going to have to consolidate around $620 before it moves up again, 

I think the $620 consoldiation is over and we may see an attack on previous resistance level of $720, note reaching $725 was not IMO enough to assert a break out, it has to get at least $10  above and hold for a few days!


Anyway $720 here we come, next target after that is $840


----------



## Sean K

*Maybe a spike, but still heading generally UP! * 

0204 GMT [Dow Jones] Gold continues to draw support from India terror attacks; spot up $1.50 from NY close at $643.15/oz despite firmer USD, as Tokyo most active tracks sharp overnight gains up Y54 at Y2,391/gram, approaching Y60 limit; weaker JPY adding to buying cues. Market may give up some of $10-plus lift in coming weeks, as terror tensions ease, USD gains, says ScotiaMocatta H.K.'s Alastair McIntyre; but views event as spike in context of recently resumed uptrend, with anticipated sharp USD losses in northern Hemisphere summer making return to $675 likely, before run back to mid-May high $730 around October.(JAD)


----------



## Kipp

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> Looks like it is reaction to the bombings in India.



Doesn't anyone feel a little bit evil that bad news is good news for gold?  That analysts can celebrate bombings or instability as it is good news for Gold price?  It doesn't make me feel good....


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?


I'm betting on support at $620/$630

What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore


----------



## michael_selway

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?
> 
> 
> I'm betting on support at $620/$630
> 
> What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore




hehe maybe this



> Oil Prices Drop on Iran Report
> AP - Crude oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel Monday on rumors of moves toward peace in the Middle East and in Iran's nuclear standoff with Western nations.




http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/finh...biz.yahoo.com/ap/060717/oil_prices.html?.v=10

thx

MS


----------



## Magdoran

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?
> 
> 
> I'm betting on support at $620/$630
> 
> What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore





The question is if this is the level wavepicker sees for another leg down.  It hit the 1/3 retracement line on Friday...  Or is this where we get the higher low and it flies past the recent top?  Will have to see the close when I get up tomorrow...


----------



## Thor

Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up. 
I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.


----------



## wavepicker

Thor said:
			
		

> Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
> I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up.
> I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.




Hi Mag,

Gold carried about $40 more than I expected for this wave B.(Original reversal zone target was $615-660) Probably due to probs in the middle East. 
Interesting to note that once again Gold has stopped dead in it's tracks a little short of the 3/4 level of the range down ($684). This is almost identical to the situation back in May when gold stopped it's re test @ $717.5(also the 3/4 level of that 1st leg down). 
The US Dollar has continued to rise against all major currencies as expected from months ago when 95% of commenators said it was doomed. One would therefore expect this entire move on Gold of the last month to be fully retraced in time and for Gold to head to new correction lows before it can start base building for it's continued long term bull trend. That in my opinion is some time off (probably a year or more)

Cheers


----------



## BlueDaze

*Tim Wood on Gold's 9-Year Cycle*

Tim Wood discusses the 4 year stock market cycle. Stocks have been struggling and Tim thinks that the 4 year cycle will provide a great buying opportunity by this fall. Tim shares his thoughts on precious metals as well as equities and tells us where he thinks they are headed.

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/07.15.06f.mp3

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/stream/07.15.06f.m3u

He believes gold will hit a cycle-low in 2009 or 2010. And that the current gold-bull is building a *base* for the next 9-year gold-upleg.


----------



## ltse

Thor said:
			
		

> Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
> I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up.
> I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.





LHG is having profit announcement on the 31st this month. Today it closed at $2.68 and gold is trading at $612/ounce.  
Do you see a continual downward trend in the short term, or do you think the annoucement will bring the share price back over $3.00. Personally, Iam confident, about the short term, I think gold is due for a rebound, at least a little bit.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: Tim Wood on Gold's 9-Year Cycle*



			
				BlueDaze said:
			
		

> Tim Wood discusses the 4 year stock market cycle. Stocks have been struggling and Tim thinks that the 4 year cycle will provide a great buying opportunity by this fall. Tim shares his thoughts on precious metals as well as equities and tells us where he thinks they are headed.
> 
> http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/07.15.06f.mp3
> 
> http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/stream/07.15.06f.m3u
> 
> He believes gold will hit a cycle-low in 2009 or 2010. And that the current gold-bull is building a *base* for the next 9-year gold-upleg.





Hey BlueDaze,

I 100% agree with Tim Woods(Refer my earlier posts on this thread).

Still think Gold price will net sideways for quite a while before putting in a new low. 2009 is what I am seeing as well and a possible turning point for gold again. Needs to washout all the current bullish pundits  before using that possible future low as a springboard for much bigger things

Cheers


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Well $620 gave way   

Next support for me is at $540


----------



## noirua

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Well $620 gave way
> 
> Next support for me is at $540





That's just US$10 below Dr Dooms forecast, however, he sees gold recovering quickly after that.


----------



## wavepicker

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Well $620 gave way
> 
> Next support for me is at $540




It may test that support level again, but I think this well drift in a range for quite a while before putting in further lows.


----------



## Thor

Just like to know, now that Gold has gone back over the $620 mark, does that mean it shouldn't come down again. Just like to know the thoughts of others.


----------



## coyotte

Thor said:
			
		

> Just like to know, now that Gold has gone back over the $620 mark, does that mean it shouldn't come down again. Just like to know the thoughts of others.





Been following the Gold market  long enough to to suspect a set-up
POG going up in Asia is the usuall set-up for a sell off 
Major problem @ the moment is that POG & HUI are following the DOW .
This is historically a deviation to the long term cycle

IMHO what was being discussed on KITCO recently --- Quote : the "hedge funds" are program trading only to be shot down by the COTs , is what seems to be going on ---- play their own game for the time being -- buy low -- sell high 


When it hits around $US550--- then I'll be holding


@ the moment spot is $636 -- waiting for COTs to move in


----------



## mit

I got stopped out of my short position last night. I was thinking at the time that I had brought it in too tight at 638 (breakeven) where 646 would have been a more natural one. I think it still looks bearish and have reentered my short again.   

MIT


----------



## BlueDaze

*Fair Valuation of Gold Price*

Paul Van Eeden is expecting four digit gold prices.

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/22.07.2006/07.22.06f.mp3

http://news.goldseek.com/PaulvanEeden/

Paul thinks that the currency crisis's of the 1990's are the primary driver for the domestic economic dilemma. Next, Paul explains how the Former M3 statistic can be easily calculated. In fact, he directs us to the Fed's website and provides a simple technique to estimate the current M3. Paul explains why the Fed. has its back against the wall. He insists they must either raise interest rates to encourage Asian bond purchases or monetize the debt - buying treasuries from the government to continue financing the domestic debt albatross. Paul tells the listeners *how to calculate gold's true value*.


----------



## mit

For the Techies, it has been an interesting candlestick pattern over the last few days for gold.

MIT


----------



## wayneL

mit said:
			
		

> For the Techies, it has been an interesting candlestick pattern over the last few days for gold.
> 
> MIT




Dojis/spinning tops?


----------



## BlueDaze

*Determinants of the Price of Gold*

Determinants of the Price of Gold

In theory, short-run fluctuations in the gold price are expected to be caused by political and financial turmoil as well as changes in exchange rates, real interest rates and the beta for gold. We use cointegration techniques to analyse data from January 1976 to August 2005 to test the hypothesis that short-run movements in the gold price are indeed related to these factors, while the *long-run price of gold moves with the general price level (consumer price index) to act as a hedge against inflation*. The estimation model hypothesises that the price of gold is determined by general price levels in the US and internationally, US and world inflation, US and world inflation volatility, world income, the US-world exchange rate, the gold lease rate, alternative investment opportunities, credit risk and time-specific uncertainty caused by political and/or financial risk.

Three main findings emerge with respect to the analysis of the long-run determinants of the price of gold. First, there is a long-term relationship between the price of gold and the US price level. Second, the US price level and the price of gold move together in a statistically significant long-run relationship supporting the view that a one percent increase in the general US price level leads to a one percent increase in the price of gold. This evidence substantiates the belief that gold is a long-term hedge against inflation. Third, in the wake of a shock that causes a deviation from this long-term relationship, there is a slow reversion back towards it. The estimate of the error correction term is –0.019, which implies that each month’s error is about 2 per cent smaller than the previous month. In effect, this means that, in the aftermath of a shock, it typically takes around five years to eliminate two-thirds of the deviation from the long-term relationship between the price of gold and the US price level.

Short-run relationships between the following explanatory variables and changes in the gold price were found to be statistically significant. There was a positive relationship between gold price movements and changes in US inflation, US inflation volatility and credit risk. We found a negative relationship between changes in the gold price and changes in the US dollar trade-weighted exchange rate and the gold lease rate. The significant negative parameter on the “error correction mechanism” reflects the slow return of the gold price to its long-run relationship. These findings are in accordance with the theoretical framework put forward. However, on the basis of the empirical analysis, there was no significant relationship between changes in the price of gold and changes in world inflation, world inflation volatility, world income, and gold’s beta. These results are consistent with the widely held belief that there is a long-term one-for-one relationship between the price of gold and the general price level in the US. More specifically, a one per cent rise in US inflation raises the long-term price of gold by an estimated one per cent. A one percent increase in the long-term price of gold for a one percent rise in the general US price level lies within the 95 percent confidence interval. However, there are short-run deviations from the long-run relationship between the price of gold caused by short-run changes in the US inflation rate, inflation volatility, credit risk, the US dollar trade-weighted exchange rate and the gold lease rate. There is a slow reversion towards the long-term relationship following a shock that causes a deviation from this long-term relationship. It takes about five years for two-thirds of the long-term relationship between the price of gold and the general price level to be restored following any shock that causes a deviation in this long-term.

A *major unresolved issue concerns gold as a long-run inflation hedge for countries other than the US*. If the price of gold is quoted in US dollars and gold is an inflation hedge for the US, holding *gold is profitable for investors domiciled in countries whose currencies depreciate against the US dollar more* than required to compensate for the difference between the country’s and US inflation rate. It is surely no coincidence that the major gold consuming countries appear to be over-represented among countries that profited from holding gold because their currency depreciation against the US dollar exceeded that required to compensate for the inflation rate differences between the two countries. This relationship has not been rigorously examined in our analysis and a deeper investigation is warranted.

Figure 4 shows home country inflation hedge gold prices between 1976 and 2005 expressed in dollar prices for ten countries. This figure clearly shows that the major gold consuming countries outside of the USA, that is, India, China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia were rational to purchase gold. For these countries the actual US dollar gold price far exceeded the dollar gold price required to provide an inflation hedge after taking account of exchange rates between the US dollar and the home country and the home country consumer price index movements. If the price of gold is quoted in US dollars and gold is an inflation hedge for the USA, holding gold is profitable for investors domiciled in countries whose currencies depreciate against the US dollar by more than what is needed to compensate for the difference between the country’s and US inflation rate.

Whether investors in any particular country gain or lose by holding gold *depends on the start date when gold is purchased and the length of the holding period*. More specifically, it is far more likely to be profitable to invest in gold *when the nominal price of gold is below its inflation hedge price*. Conversely, it more likely to be unprofitable to invest in gold when the nominal gold price is above its inflation hedge price.

Finally, we turn to the policy implications of this analysis for potential investors in gold. One important implication concerns a likely US dollar depreciation required to restore balance to the US current account. There appears to be a consensus that US dollar depreciation is inevitable – the only issue being when it will occur and whether the adjustment path will be smooth or disorderly. Jarrett (2005) lists fourteen estimates of the dollar depreciation that would be needed to restore the imbalance in the US current account deficit. These estimates range between 12 per cent and 90 per cent. If gold is a long-run hedge against inflation, and if it is true that real dollar depreciation against other currencies is inevitable, US wealth holders should profit from holding gold during this period for two reasons.

The first reason is that the dollar depreciation will lower the price of gold to investors outside of the USA, and this will raise their demand for gold and raise the US dollar price of gold. That is in addition to the long-run relationship between the US price level and the price of gold. The second reason is that *dollar depreciation will likely raise US inflation rates*, and gold would act as an inflation hedge during this period.


----------



## mit

wayneL said:
			
		

> Dojis/spinning tops?




Thanks I didn't have my candlesticks book available. With CMC it looks a little more dramatic  probably due to the shift in the day start/finish. Last night the last bar was showing a third red rejection of the lower price. I should have listened as I got stopped out of my short.

The Wave people have been quiet on gold lately? Anybody venture an opinion?

MIT


----------



## wavepicker

mit said:
			
		

> Thanks I didn't have my candlesticks book available. With CMC it looks a little more dramatic  probably due to the shift in the day start/finish. Last night the last bar was showing a third red rejection of the lower price. I should have listened as I got stopped out of my short.
> 
> The Wave people have been quiet on gold lately? Anybody venture an opinion?
> 
> MIT




Hi Mit,

Nothing has changed in my opinion. Sticking to the same roadmap outlined in long term chart in post #639.  Basically net sideways consolidation for quite a while to come. I am also short ($662) from over a week ago. May get stopped this evening if it does not play out to plan. Otherwise the plan is to exit at $560-580 if it happens. Technically not worth looking at this one for quite a whiles thereafter. same story as our local market!!

Cheers


----------



## mit

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Hi Mit,
> 
> Nothing has changed in my opinion. Sticking to the same roadmap outlined in long term chart in post #639.  Basically net sideways consolidation for quite a while to come. I am also short ($662) from over a week ago. May get stopped this evening if it does not play out to plan. Otherwise the plan is to exit at $560-580 if it happens. Technically not worth looking at this one for quite a whiles thereafter. same story as our local market!!
> 
> Cheers




Thanks Wavepicker,

I thought the last movement might have invalidated the chart, Well I'm out until it does something definite. Hopfully 662 will hold for you and you get your profit at 560. The last few gold moves have been textbook TA and I have profited from them, so I'm happy.

MIT


----------



## Sean K

*Cautiously bullish*

2336 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold at $651.55/oz, giving up $1 of modest overnight gains made in fairly thin conditions on recent USD weakness, ongoing Mideast tensions, favorable chart patterns after break above $650. However, ScotiaMocatta notes retracement from high of $657 "smells of a false breakout." Nevertheless, recommends cautiously bullish approach, with likely attempt at $668; underlying support at $645 down to $637.50. USD reaction to upcoming U.S. data likely to provide cues for gold coming sessions. (JAD)


----------



## Thor

I know you're not asking me, but if you were to ask me, I would say Gold is looking very bullish. I am hearing this word inflation, over and over again, which is something that puts pressure on Gold going up.
But right now I'm looking at a weekly future chart GCQ6 and it looks very bullish, I would consider that if it is going to be bullish from now it would be confirmed by going through around the 664.5 mark, but for you bears I wouldn't be going short unless it went below 600, and fundermentally I can't see that happening.
For me I'm cheering on Gold to go up, and going to new highs. If you are following Oil it looks like it has be building support, and will go higher, and the US$ isn't looking that strong. This is all in favour of the rising price of Gold.
Only my opinion, I could be totally wrong.


----------



## nizar

Historically gold always rallies harder in the 2nd half of the year

This year IMO will be no different

Gold rose last year by about 23% even though the USD rose by 14%... drawing investors with its consecutive monthly rate rises

I believe that 2nite's employment report for july will show no jobless grew faster than expected ie. slowing economy, and this will be the last piece of info the FED need to pause in August

Now, since a fundamentally weak USD will no longer be supported by rate rises as the FED is near or at the end of the tightening cycle, this should be the catalyst required for the USD to fall and to spark gold's rally taking it to maybe 800-850 by years end

I would not be suprised if gold rallied 2nite (over the weeknd) but $20 or so and the goldies to gap up higher on monday open


Of course the above is only my opinion


----------



## tonyc

*Gold Elliott Wave Count - Update*

.........


----------



## Joe Blow

Tony, try attaching the chart to your post, rather than linking to it from your blog as it doesn't show up that way.

See this thread for more info: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2522


----------



## BlueDaze

*HUI and Gold (Part 1)*

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/tan/tan080806.html

Thomas Z. Tan
Aug 8, 2006

I have been reading many articles on the topics of gold and gold miners for a few years now. Here I would like to share my view on both gold and especially HUI, many of which are results of my own research and haven't been read from other publications. The main point of this article is if we view HUI as a derivative of gold, it will give a better understanding of HUI movement, resulting better indication and wave count than gold itself for the purpose of future projection. My forecast on gold is also discussed here.

*Part One - HUI*

HUI is composed of 15 large and mid size gold mining companies (with equal dollar weighting) which do not hedge beyond 1.5 years. Due to this unhedged or light hedged nature, I look at HUI more as a very long term call option of gold. As everyone knows, the best movement of HUI is from the bottom of $38 at the end of 2000 to $155 in 2002, 400% return in 1.5 year. However, gold itself has gone only from $250 to $325 in the same period, or about 30% return. In other words, return on HUI is over 10 times higher than gold for this period which I would call phase I, the best so far. However from 2002 to now for 4 long years, HUI is up only from $155 to $320, or 100% return, in par with gold from $325 to $650, also 100%. Does anyone ever ask why there is such large disparity in behavior and return between the two periods?

Even gold mining companies vary differently in their costs of excavating gold from ground, the average on the HUI miners is believed to be around $325 including overhead. If you look HUI as a very long term call option of gold option (expires only when miners are in bankruptcy), it makes perfect sense why HUI return was over 10 times higher than gold in phase I. When gold reached the bottom of $250, HUI was way out of money. Option traders know they don't worth a lot. HUI during 2000 at $38 behaved like 100 calls ($0.38 per call) with strike price at $325 when gold traded at $250, $75 out of money. Then gold slowly rose to $325 in the next 1.5 years and finally put HUI at the money (at its strike price), what would you think HUI should be traded at? I think $155 per 100 calls ($1.55 per call) would be a very reasonable market price due to the time and volatility values from the Black Scholes model. This is phase I.

Now for phase II, when gold price keeps creeping up, HUI again as a call option of gold, becomes more and more in the money, the ratio of change in HUI vs. gold is approaching one, the so-called delta hedging of a call option. That is exactly what has happened last 4 years when HUI has moved from $155 to $320, or 100% return, "magically" matching gold from $325 to $650, also 100%.

The behavior of HUI last 6 years has proved exactly that HUI is a derivative of gold, at least from a long term view. This is not a coincidence and makes perfect fundamental sense. Stock option traders know that option leads stocks, so is HUI as a leading indicator of gold.

If we accept this view, the implications are: 1) We should never view HUI independently, have to be in conjunction with gold at all time; 2) Any technical analysis (TA) on HUI alone such as Elliot Wave Projection (EWP) would only make sense if the same analysis on gold is correct; 3) The deviation of HUI from gold is a important TA indication due to its leading and lagging natures.

I have read several editorials from TA standpoint that HUI will go to stratosphere by repeating the 1st phase rise from $38 to $250 in the near term. The fractal TA target is based on extrapolating the same length of movement as the previous one on a log scale. In other words, they expect the current % gain will repeat the $38-$250 run in about the same length of time. I think they will be disappointed. It is obviously incorrect to expect return of in the money calls to match out of money calls. HUI might go to stratosphere only if gold goes to stratosphere in the near future. Anything is possible in the market, but not likely (see my discussion on "Part II - Gold" below).

HUI has deviated short term from gold from time to time. The longest deviation happened and lasted for the whole year of 2004. Gold was able to creep up to a higher high but HUI couldn't and lagged behind. I think this is due to the lack of arbitrage mechanism between HUI and gold. For option arbitrage, we have something called put call parity, or c-p = S-X. For example, if call is undervalued, we can buy call, short put, short stock, buy US treasury to generate a risk free arbitrage profit. However, it is not true for HUI, since there is not a good basket of companies or index which is closely but inversely correlated to gold. 

Why is the deviation in 2004 then? I think the main reason is people's expectation and perspective view on gold. At 2004, even gold rose slowly and made hew high, no one believed that gold would stay at the level of $400-$450 very long, the general public view was that gold would eventually go back down to $300-$350 level (again close to the strike price). HUI as a composition of gold miners, correctly reflected the mass view at that time by discounting the future earnings, and traded at "discount" to gold. This however won't happen in stock option due to arbitrage discussed above. It explains the following chart why HUI vs. gold ratio dropped from 0.6 to 0.4 during that period, a 33% reduction. Will this happen today? I don't think so. The public consensus has accepted gold price in the range between $550-$650, not far from current level, much more positive sentiment than in 2004.

Will HUI ever trade in "premium" to gold in the future? My view is unlikely, the reasons are: 1) Companies have too many risks such as geopolitical (foreign government, manpower, unions, environment, health & safety, regulation), reserve uncertainty, capacity limitation, management, operating issues, capital & refinancing, especially costs (as we see HUI is currently depressed by the high energy costs). 2) Reserves will eventually run out and finding and securing new reserve is always the biggest risk. If we believe that the World is running out of gold mines, this risk is huge. 3) Even if people expect gold trading at stratosphere level, unhedged gold miners can only excavate gold so much and so fast each year up to the longevity of reserves, reflecting profit or earnings based on an average gold price substantial less than the peak price. Even reserve estimate might increase with higher gold price due to low grade ore becoming profitable, but no matter what the peak gold eventually reaches, HUI will reflect a much lower average gold price due to operational constraints.

I expect in the future which I call phase III, the delta between HUI and gold will drop gradually from current 1:1 down to somewhere 0.75:1 or lower (see my chart on HUI vs. gold future correlation below). For example, when gold reaches $2000 (500% return from $325 gold level), I only expect HUI to get to $750 (400% return from $150 HUI level). The main reason is simply because the risk associated with owning gold is much less than all the risk associated with owning some mining companies as discussed above. I strongly believe that gold offers a better risk/reward profile than HUI, and is a better investment vehicle than HUI in the future.

However I am only talking about the large and mid tier gold miners in HUI. For small miners, exploration and early discovery companies, I view them as events driven similar to biotech firms finding drugs. If jackpot is hit by finding a new gold mine with good quality and large reserves, the return can be unimaginable, whether gold trades $1000 or $2000 makes little difference.

When HUI is more in the money, market will evaluate gold miners less by earnings or P/E ratios, more by the values of their reserves minus excavation costs. Analysts will use models to discount future profits from the existing reserves and will probably assign very little value of their ability to hit future jackpot due to the scarcity and low probability of finding new gold mines. I think the best return in the future is in the companies with the highest and good quality reserves. Barrick Gold's current offer to NovaGold proves this. Barrick Gold is in XAU not HUI due to its heavy hedging on gold, it makes perfect sense for a XAU hedged miner to acquire an unhedged one, increasing reserves at the same time reducing hedge.


----------



## BlueDaze

*HUI and Gold (Part 2)*

*Part Two - Gold*

Since HUI basically moves with gold, I want to discuss here my view on gold's long term target and its EWP. There is no lack of such views from many resource websites, and I have learned so much from various authors, I will repeat some of them here but also give what I believe. 

Long Term Gold Target

I expect gold peaks at $4000-$5000 at the end of this bull market. I agree with many people that the best way to forecast peak is by comparing gold vs. other major indexes:

Gold vs. DJIA. With a secular bear stock market, DJIA should drop to $5000, a 50% reduction, the DJIA/Gold ratio could reach 1:1 at the bottom from current 18:1, thus gold at $5000.

Gold vs. CPI. If we use the pre-modified CPI formula prior to mid 1990s, economists have calculated the current inflation should be around 7-8%, double the 3-4% claimed by the government. Compounding for last 26 years, coupled with likely future higher inflation, gold should reach $3000-$4000 range to be comparable to $887.5 of 1980 dollar.

Gold ties more to money supply than any other factors. There is a reason why government stopped publishing M3, probably not to save $1M cost for compiling the data, but because M3 has been running out of control, rising exponentially. Economists have come up with $4000-$5000 gold in order to tie back to M3 in 1970s. Due to the lack of transparency on M3, people would think M3 is even worse than it really is (even the real data is already bad enough). There will be a time public view greenback worthless as in the period of late 1970s to early 1980s.

Gold vs. Oil. At the peak, Gold vs. Oil ratio might reach 30 (not a historical all time high), putting gold to $4000 with oil at $133 or $5000 with oil at $170. 

Gold now vs. 1970s. Gold was up from $35 to $887.5 in 1970s, 2500% return. Using the same ratio from $250 bottom low, gold could reach over $6000.

At the same time, I have reservation on gold peak much higher than $5000 at this gold bull market. I have seen some authors projecting a gold price at $10,000 and/or higher with 5 digits. Even anything is possible in the market, but I seriously doubt 5 digits will happen in this bull market, mainly due to the ratio analysis above. Maybe it will happen in the next gold bull if someone can wait for another 40 years.

However I also believe gold will take us much higher than just the current CPI adjusted $2000 level, equivalent to $887.5 of 1980 dollar. The main fundamental reason is globalization, which brings much higher demand for gold across the globe than 1970s with more severe scarcity of gold supplies. Globalization is a double edge sword. It brings economic growth and trades but also instability for all countries alike. It exports western consumption and lifestyle to the whole World population, causing natural resource consumption increasing exponentially as well as prices for all commodities. It brings competitions to devalue paper currencies of all countries alike to gain trade advantage. If greenback as the dominant and strongest currency in the World, collapses in the future, all paper currencies will collapse together, resulting gold as the last currency standing and the only universal currency everyone can trust. Central banks (CBs) will have to compete to increase their gold reserves, developed and developing countries alike. CBs in developed countries have been net gold sellers, while CBs in all developing countries have very little gold in their reserves. 

It is a pity that CBs such as Bank of England sold large shares of gold reserves at the absolute bottom of $250-$300 in 2000. From cycle standpoint, gold should have bottomed in 1999 or earlier. The early 2001 bottom according to GATA is more a manipulation and collusion of CBs than real demand and supply driven. But this kind of manipulation if true, plus discontinued M3 and new CPI "adjustments" will backfire in the future, just as $250 was an anomaly of gold at the low side, public dissatisfaction, anxiety and insecurity will cause anomaly at the other side, bringing gold to a much higher level than CPI adjusted. When Greenspan was asked by a congressman how stupid Bank of England was to sell gold at the absolute bottom, worst timing ever possible, he strongly defended them by saying "The British knew what they were doing". This led people to believe that Fed might actually involve too, maybe by lending gold or even selling at the same time, act of collusion as GATA has always suspected. No matter what happened then, three things are true: 1) Rise of gold is a nightmare for all CBs; 2) All CBs have less gold than they claim having, and will gradually have less ammunition to depress gold and eventually defenseless to protect their paper currencies; 3) At the end all CBs will have to turn into net gold buyers from sellers.

*EWP of Gold*

This is purely based on my view on EWP. Different people have different opinions on EWP. I will give mine and I also think using EWP long term makes more sense than short term, especially in conjunction with HUI. The key here is to define where major wave II was for this gold bull after wave I started in 2001. Many people think we are currently at wave II due to the sharp drop in gold from $730-$550. I tend to disagree. If you look at HUI instead of gold from 2000, the major wave I was obvious from end of 2000 to end of 2003, lasting 3 years, while wave II was during end of 2003 to mid 2005, lasting 1.5 years (half of the time of wave I). This makes sense for EWP, all other drops are not long enough to qualify as wave II. During the same 1.5 years, gold did creep up slowly, forming a diamond shape wave II, unusual but possible and bullish for wave III. As I indicated before, EWP of HUI is more logic and accurate than gold EWP, due to both its derivative nature of gold and its ability to deviate to better reflect the real psychological level of public expectation and perspective on gold.

If my view is correct on wave II, we are currently at wave III. With wave I lasted about 3 years, wave II half of that, it is reasonable to expect wave III to last at least 2-3 years. Today wave III is only 1 year, should have at least another 1 or likely 2 more years to go until 2008, bringing us to $1800-$2000, 400% return from wave II bottom. The current sharp drop from $730 to $550 is a necessary correction within wave III, although from the COT report, the last $50 drop from $600 to $550 was more due to manipulation by large commercials to shake the weak apples. Gold will recover sooner than expected. After wave III, I expect a serious correction of wave IV, lasting for 2 years similar to 1974-1976, bringing us down to about $1200 (50% correction) before a run away to my final $4000-$5000 target, another 400% gain.

If gold reaches this level as forecast, by using the same ratio of peak of $887.5 at 1980 to $250 at 2001, I project gold will bottom at $1100-$1400 as the absolute bottom at the next major gold bear market which again can last for 20 years or so. If it happens as expected, gold will still remain at 4 digits for this and next generation and probably forever as far as gold remains as the universal and last currency for the whole World. I believe once gold securely and convincingly overcomes the $1000 mark, and current wave III reaches $1800 to $2000 range, gold will never go back down below $1000, thus never be 3 digits again. When will be the best time to buy gold? Answer: If not now, when? 

Thomas Z. Tan, CFA, MBA
thomast2@optonline.net


----------



## GreatPig

Goddam... wish I coulda bought some on that dip 

Gold doesn't come much cheaper than minus $20 per ounce 

GP


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: HUI and Gold (Part 2)*



			
				BlueDaze said:
			
		

> *Part Two - Gold*
> 
> Since HUI basically moves with gold, I want to discuss here my view on gold's long term target and its EWP. There is no lack of such views from many resource websites, and I have learned so much from various authors, I will repeat some of them here but also give what I believe.
> 
> Long Term Gold Target
> 
> I expect gold peaks at $4000-$5000 at the end of this bull market. I agree with many people that the best way to forecast peak is by comparing gold vs. other major indexes:
> 
> Gold vs. DJIA. With a secular bear stock market, DJIA should drop to $5000, a 50% reduction, the DJIA/Gold ratio could reach 1:1 at the bottom from current 18:1, thus gold at $5000.
> 
> Gold vs. CPI. If we use the pre-modified CPI formula prior to mid 1990s, economists have calculated the current inflation should be around 7-8%, double the 3-4% claimed by the government. Compounding for last 26 years, coupled with likely future higher inflation, gold should reach $3000-$4000 range to be comparable to $887.5 of 1980 dollar.
> 
> Gold ties more to money supply than any other factors. There is a reason why government stopped publishing M3, probably not to save $1M cost for compiling the data, but because M3 has been running out of control, rising exponentially. Economists have come up with $4000-$5000 gold in order to tie back to M3 in 1970s. Due to the lack of transparency on M3, people would think M3 is even worse than it really is (even the real data is already bad enough). There will be a time public view greenback worthless as in the period of late 1970s to early 1980s.
> 
> Gold vs. Oil. At the peak, Gold vs. Oil ratio might reach 30 (not a historical all time high), putting gold to $4000 with oil at $133 or $5000 with oil at $170.
> 
> Gold now vs. 1970s. Gold was up from $35 to $887.5 in 1970s, 2500% return. Using the same ratio from $250 bottom low, gold could reach over $6000.
> 
> At the same time, I have reservation on gold peak much higher than $5000 at this gold bull market. I have seen some authors projecting a gold price at $10,000 and/or higher with 5 digits. Even anything is possible in the market, but I seriously doubt 5 digits will happen in this bull market, mainly due to the ratio analysis above. Maybe it will happen in the next gold bull if someone can wait for another 40 years.
> 
> However I also believe gold will take us much higher than just the current CPI adjusted $2000 level, equivalent to $887.5 of 1980 dollar. The main fundamental reason is globalization, which brings much higher demand for gold across the globe than 1970s with more severe scarcity of gold supplies. Globalization is a double edge sword. It brings economic growth and trades but also instability for all countries alike. It exports western consumption and lifestyle to the whole World population, causing natural resource consumption increasing exponentially as well as prices for all commodities. It brings competitions to devalue paper currencies of all countries alike to gain trade advantage. If greenback as the dominant and strongest currency in the World, collapses in the future, all paper currencies will collapse together, resulting gold as the last currency standing and the only universal currency everyone can trust. Central banks (CBs) will have to compete to increase their gold reserves, developed and developing countries alike. CBs in developed countries have been net gold sellers, while CBs in all developing countries have very little gold in their reserves.
> 
> It is a pity that CBs such as Bank of England sold large shares of gold reserves at the absolute bottom of $250-$300 in 2000. From cycle standpoint, gold should have bottomed in 1999 or earlier. The early 2001 bottom according to GATA is more a manipulation and collusion of CBs than real demand and supply driven. But this kind of manipulation if true, plus discontinued M3 and new CPI "adjustments" will backfire in the future, just as $250 was an anomaly of gold at the low side, public dissatisfaction, anxiety and insecurity will cause anomaly at the other side, bringing gold to a much higher level than CPI adjusted. When Greenspan was asked by a congressman how stupid Bank of England was to sell gold at the absolute bottom, worst timing ever possible, he strongly defended them by saying "The British knew what they were doing". This led people to believe that Fed might actually involve too, maybe by lending gold or even selling at the same time, act of collusion as GATA has always suspected. No matter what happened then, three things are true: 1) Rise of gold is a nightmare for all CBs; 2) All CBs have less gold than they claim having, and will gradually have less ammunition to depress gold and eventually defenseless to protect their paper currencies; 3) At the end all CBs will have to turn into net gold buyers from sellers.
> 
> *EWP of Gold*
> 
> This is purely based on my view on EWP. Different people have different opinions on EWP. I will give mine and I also think using EWP long term makes more sense than short term, especially in conjunction with HUI. The key here is to define where major wave II was for this gold bull after wave I started in 2001. Many people think we are currently at wave II due to the sharp drop in gold from $730-$550. I tend to disagree. If you look at HUI instead of gold from 2000, the major wave I was obvious from end of 2000 to end of 2003, lasting 3 years, while wave II was during end of 2003 to mid 2005, lasting 1.5 years (half of the time of wave I). This makes sense for EWP, all other drops are not long enough to qualify as wave II. During the same 1.5 years, gold did creep up slowly, forming a diamond shape wave II, unusual but possible and bullish for wave III. As I indicated before, EWP of HUI is more logic and accurate than gold EWP, due to both its derivative nature of gold and its ability to deviate to better reflect the real psychological level of public expectation and perspective on gold.
> 
> If my view is correct on wave II, we are currently at wave III. With wave I lasted about 3 years, wave II half of that, it is reasonable to expect wave III to last at least 2-3 years. Today wave III is only 1 year, should have at least another 1 or likely 2 more years to go until 2008, bringing us to $1800-$2000, 400% return from wave II bottom. The current sharp drop from $730 to $550 is a necessary correction within wave III, although from the COT report, the last $50 drop from $600 to $550 was more due to manipulation by large commercials to shake the weak apples. Gold will recover sooner than expected. After wave III, I expect a serious correction of wave IV, lasting for 2 years similar to 1974-1976, bringing us down to about $1200 (50% correction) before a run away to my final $4000-$5000 target, another 400% gain.
> 
> If gold reaches this level as forecast, by using the same ratio of peak of $887.5 at 1980 to $250 at 2001, I project gold will bottom at $1100-$1400 as the absolute bottom at the next major gold bear market which again can last for 20 years or so. If it happens as expected, gold will still remain at 4 digits for this and next generation and probably forever as far as gold remains as the universal and last currency for the whole World. I believe once gold securely and convincingly overcomes the $1000 mark, and current wave III reaches $1800 to $2000 range, gold will never go back down below $1000, thus never be 3 digits again. When will be the best time to buy gold? Answer: If not now, when?
> 
> Thomas Z. Tan, CFA, MBA
> thomast2@optonline.net





Would take essays from Gold Sites with a dose of salt. They are rampers interested in pushing their own barrows.


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: HUI and Gold (Part 2)*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Would take essays from Gold Sites with a dose of salt. They are rampers interested in pushing their own barrows.




And most of them have only been right in the last 4-5years


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: HUI and Gold (Part 2)*



			
				bvbfan said:
			
		

> And most of them have only been right in the last 4-5years




That's right they have been right over the last 4-5 years. If you keep on being bullish, eventually the market will swing your way for some period of time.But they were pathetically wrong the previous 5 years when Gold fell from $450 to $254. They were also very wrong in May at $730 when they were talking Gold up to over $1000 before years end. The result: A capitulation to $542.

My point is, these guys are always super bullish, you will never hear a negative out of them. I too am bullish over the very long term. How long do you expect to live?


Cheers


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: HUI and Gold (Part 2)*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> That's right they have been right over the last 4-5 years. If you keep on being bullish, eventually the market will swing your way for some period of time.But they were pathetically wrong the previous 5 years when Gold fell from $450 to $254. They were also very wrong in May at $730 when they were talking Gold up to over $1000 before years end. The result: A capitulation to $542.
> Cheers





I can't say that I followed gold prior to April-May 2001 in any great detail so I'll have to take your word for it.
As for $730 the climb was vertical so had to stop at some point, but same could be said for AUM / CDU who was calling it to go to $10 not many people but it did, while everyone was going on gold to go to $1000. Suppose it was a great contrarian indicator.


....


So who's been selling gold today?


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: HUI and Gold (Part 2)*



			
				bvbfan said:
			
		

> I can't say that I followed gold prior to April-May 2001 in any great detail so I'll have to take your word for it.
> As for $730 the climb was vertical so had to stop at some point, but same could be said for AUM / CDU who was calling it to go to $10 not many people but it did, while everyone was going on gold to go to $1000. Suppose it was a great contrarian indicator.
> 
> 
> ....
> 
> 
> So who's been selling gold today?




Don't know, but shorted it 4 weeks ago @ $662 and still hold position. Will not trade it much more in the next few months as I beleive will be stuck in a range for quite some time. Then perhaps to drift lower. (Same as what expecting from domestic mkt)


cheers


----------



## benwex

I am a little confused with the state of the Gold price and Miners.

It seems most of the large local producers are closing out their hedging book so they can  take advantage of favourable spot prices going forward. They are putting their money where their mouth is.

So the miners are bullish on the gold price and not to worried about the US dollar. Do we agree with this view?

Why are we not seeing the gold miners share prices, OXR, PNA LHR tracking gold prce in the last 2 months??

Am confused.... higher gold prices and bullish views should mean upward movement, is their something else in play??


----------



## wayneL

benwex said:
			
		

> I am a little confused with the state of the Gold price and Miners.
> 
> It seems most of the large local producers are closing out their hedging book so they can  take advantage of favourable spot prices going forward. They are putting their money where their mouth is.
> 
> So the miners are bullish on the gold price and not to worried about the US dollar. Do we agree with this view?
> 
> Why are we not seeing the gold miners share prices, OXR, PNA LHR tracking gold prce in the last 2 months??
> 
> Am confused.... higher gold prices and bullish views should mean upward movement, is their something else in play??




Yep

Recession


----------



## wavepicker

wayneL said:
			
		

> Yep
> 
> Recession





Perhaps, but how much of a recession? A short recession like 91/92 or a deflationary spiral aka what Japan has had in the last 16 years?

In 2000 had been super bearish in the past but was proven wrong. Looking at the long term wave structure the secular bull in the domestic market does not appear complete. However that is not to say we are not in for a major correction(which in my opinion is aready underway) or sideways/bear market. Probably quite similar to what traced out in the 70's but with differing timeframe. Once this correction is finsished ( and in my opinion it will be a choppy sideways affair lasting 2-3 years) I would expect market to blowoff to new highs. I reckon the real bear market will start after that and last a very long time.

More to the point with gold however. If you just step back and look at the bull in gold we have had for the last 6/7 yrs. Then is needs to be corrected both in terms of price and time. Generally I have a guideline that on average a bull market or I should say an impulse (this can be both a bullish impulse or a bearish impulse) is corrected by a move in opposite direction which take approximately 1/3 of the time of the entire impulse. Remembering that this is just a guideline and not a rule. Even using gold as analog back in the 1970's. It ran up to $200 from 1970 to 1974, corrected back 50% to $100 from 1974-76 and used that as a springboard to much higher prices. It would be foolish to assume that the same thing will happen. Just have to play it by ear. But an interesting analogy in any case.

It is my opinion however that Gold does remain in a secular bull. Any weakness in the next 2-3 years will be due to a "flight to quality" toward a rising US Dollar.

Cheers


----------



## coyotte

Was under the impression that the real guide to POG was the London PM Fix and the Cont/Futures Market --- L/F is supposed to be the price that dealers actually pay or offer  , whilst Spot is just a monoply game where the real thing is never involved 

When I was dabbling in the real thing Sydney Dealers used a FIXED price (adj for buy/sell and size) for that day, which I was told was the previouse L/F --
Spot price never came into it 



Cheers


----------



## coyotte

POG & HUI/XAU  seem to be out of kilter @ the moment to their historical roles

Both at the moment seem to be following the general trend of the DOW  and their respective home indexs --- which is historicaly wrong --- they should be opposing these --- which would lead one to suspect that GOLD is still being treated as a commodity --- POG cannot truely take off untill this is overcome and POG begins to out perform the base metals including silver



Cheers


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Gold @ $685, has broken my range trend, I have no idea where its headed, up oviously but my trnd has been broken
> 
> Siggghhhhhh and it was looking like such a reliable trend, $420-$440 ($20), $440-$480 ($40), $480-$540 ($60), $540 -$620 ($80), $620 - $720 ($100), next was $720 - $840, but gold had to hold above $700, oh well back to the drawing board.





I made the above post on the 15th of May, what Hindsight would show as the start of the a great 'Sell In May and Go Away' Correction, since then Gold has broken down through $620, all the way down towards $540, found support and rebounded back up through $620, where it now sits above.

I don't know if it was pure luck or just reading the chart right, but for some reason the trend I picked above played out exactly right, ie Gold did get to the peak of the $720 ($725) range before collapsing and did find support at $620 and $540, 

However I am convinced that I do not understand the POG at all, 
1. The Fed Pauses Rates, finally after 17 times = Weaker US $ Should = Stronger POG, Actually = Nothing   

2. Terror threat London Should = Stronger POG, Actually = Weaker POG   

So gold fell when inflation was a concern, failed to rally when the US $ was going to come under pressure, and fell when there has been an extremely high level of Global Crisis   

Thus I have concluded, I have no idea how the POG will move, whatever fundamentals I thought it followed, it clearly doesn't, so I'll stick to the commodities I do understand (For now), Uranium, Oil and Zinc


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I made the above post on the 15th of May, what Hindsight would show as the start of the a great 'Sell In May and Go Away' Correction, since then Gold has broken down through $620, all the way down towards $540, found support and rebounded back up through $620, where it now sits above.
> 
> I don't know if it was pure luck or just reading the chart right, but for some reason the trend I picked above played out exactly right, ie Gold did get to the peak of the $720 ($725) range before collapsing and did find support at $620 and $540,
> 
> However I am convinced that I do not understand the POG at all,
> 1. The Fed Pauses Rates, finally after 17 times = Weaker US $ Should = Stronger POG, Actually = Nothing
> 
> 2. Terror threat London Should = Stronger POG, Actually = Weaker POG
> 
> So gold fell when inflation was a concern, failed to rally when the US $ was going to come under pressure, and fell when there has been an extremely high level of Global Crisis
> 
> Thus I have concluded, I have no idea how the POG will move, whatever fundamentals I thought it followed, it clearly doesn't, so I'll stick to the commodities I do understand (For now), Uranium, Oil and Zinc




As they say "What seems logical in the market, is usually what does not happen" 

It just goes to show that more than anything, social mood governs the ebbs and flows of the market. 

If you want to beat the market and the crowd with consistancy, then you have to be doing something different and unique and be one step ahead.

In so far as Gold goes I would recommend tracking the US Dollar and studying that market in more detail if you want to make more $$ in gold in the long term. Most of the movement in Gold is general an inverse of US Dollar movement. 

Best of luck


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> As they say "What seems logical in the market, is usually what does not happen"
> 
> Most of the movement in Gold is general an inverse of US Dollar movement.




If only it was that easy

Last year when the US dollar also rose 14% gold also was up around 23%


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> If only it was that easy
> 
> Last year when the US dollar also rose 14% gold also was up around 23%





Nizar,

Notice I used the word "generally" not "exactly". 

If you ever bothered to look at a chart of the US Dollar Index, you will see it bottomed on the 27th Dec 2004, at 80.39 and then peaked at 14th Nov 2005 at 92.6 (15% rise).  Gold topped at $456 on the 29th of November 2004(one month earlier), over the same corresponding period Gold went net sideways closing only marginally higher @ $467.

Looking at both on a longer timeframe, Gold made a double bottom in Feb 2001. The US Dollar Index topped on the July 2001. These tops and bottoms are within 1-5 months of each other over the long term. You would have to be a fool not to think there is not some sort of relationship there.

I beleive this same relationship will be evident again with USD to rise over the next year at least. This is bound to have some sort of impact on the Gold price. If not a bearish impact then at least for the Gold price to be caught in a sideways range for quite a while before resuming the upward secular term trend. Why? Because generally speaking most of the Gold strength has been off the back of dollar weakness. 

Also with the CRB Index at overbought levels and  looking like it's about to start a multi month decline, this a strong probability.

I wouldn't mind hearing how you go about your trading decisions with regard to Gold??

Cheers


----------



## Mr_Liquidity

with the way things are in the world i cant see why Gold wont continue to rise

apart from may any drop it has taken it has bounced right back, but it still is in a short term down ward direction.

I am still looking to go long on it!


----------



## yogi-in-oz

Warning ..... astrostuff for gold, ahead:

Hi folks,

Up front, we will be looking to go long on gold and
gold stocks, around 20-23 October 2006.

With gold in a relatively flat trading range, since early-July 
2006, we can see this lines up with Jupiter going direct, 
around 05 July 2006. 

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/86

Will be looking for further flat trading from gold, until 
23 October 2006 ... soon after, we may see a dramatic 
lift in the gold price ..... ???

======================================

Soon after, we will be watching for that stellium of planets, 
around 07 November 2006 ... it will be interesting to see, if 
traders will push gold to its higher limits (DOW/SnP lower),
at this time ... ???

====================================== 

For Aussie gold bugs in 2007 ..... a strong XJO expected in 
February and October 2007, may well be driven by strong
gains in gold and other resources ..... ??? 

happy days

 yogi



 =====


----------



## dubiousinfo

Gold has dipped under US$600/oz


----------



## justjohn

BSG down 6% & LHG 5%


----------



## GreatPig

BSG down over 11% just before. Back up to 8.8% odd down now.

GP


----------



## wavepicker

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Gold has dipped under US$600/oz




There is nothing surprising here.  

As per post back in June : 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=51418&postcount=559

refer to forcasted EW chart back then. Three waves always unfold against the one larger trend. In this case the one larger trend was up for 6 years. 

This bear campaign/correction in Gold IMO is not even half done in terms of time. Tentative downside target is $480/490. But could also be as low as $430/450. Will get better idea as that time approaches.

5 waves down in the US Dollar since 2000. The rally it started in Dec 2004 is unfinished. Would expect a multi year advance from here. IMO opinion Gold will be doing it hard. The biggest factor in the strength of Gold price has been due to US Dollar weakness more than anything.

The consensus among maintream economists and analysts is that the US Dollar is doomed and that Gold will continue to rise. This is not the sort of sentiment conducive to a continuation of the Gold bull at this point in time. When 95% of the bulls are washed out of the market, that is when Gold will regain it's footing and use this decline as springboard to higher prices in the years ahead.


----------



## scsl

I got this from CMC Markets' live news feed...



> NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Despite the recent sell-off in gold along with the rest of the commodities complex, analysts at Goldman Sachs expect a weakening in the U.S. dollar to support a substantially higher gold price by the end of next year.
> 
> In a report released late Monday, the analysts said the fundamental equilibrating relationship between gold and the dollar continues to show strong signs of having returned after a structural adjustment higher.
> 
> "Moreover, we continue to see risks to net central bank sales, while mine production is unlikely to recover substantially in the near term," analysts said in the report.
> 
> Accordingly, Goldman Sachs is maintaining its forecast for gold prices to average $785 an ounce in 2007, "though this forecast would be at risk should the expected dollar weakening not materialize," they added.
> 
> -By Alison Guerriere Ciaccio


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> ducati
> The numbers are not *my * numbers - they are there for anyone that goes to the Wold Gold Council site.
> You continue to blur money with physical - there is a link but the two data sets need to be interpreted separately.
> A key driver of gold's price into the future will be mine supply falling significantly short of physical demand.
> How many commodities are there in such short supply and of such value that banks have to release supplies to the market, and individuals are willing to sell their jewellery (so it can be melted down) for cash.
> Yes ducati, I did PM you and ask you to revise your gold forecasts.
> I have little doubt that by October this year we will have $800 gold.
> I also know that the next major retrace is likely to be more severe than the present one.
> I remain a conservative gold bull at this stage, but I also like to keep my position intelligible and simple.




Well, October is fast approaching.
$800 Gold nowhere in sight.
$400 Gold getting closer week by week.

jog on 
d998


----------



## nizar

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Well, October is fast approaching.
> $800 Gold nowhere in sight.
> $400 Gold getting closer week by week.
> 
> jog on
> d998




Gold went from 600 to 700 in one month back in april/may
It that happens again it will be at about 680, still off from 800, but that will still make rederob alot closer than u...


----------



## ducati916

> Gold went from 600 to 700 in one month back in april/may
> It that happens again it will be at about 680, still off from 800, but that will still make rederob alot closer than u...




*Closer*
An interesting word.

The two predictions, as that of course is in essence all they were;
*$800...........October* 
Currently, not looking too promising.

Whereas, my prediction;
*$350 - $450...................sometime in the future* 
Looks far more *conservative* 

And that is the lesson.
Be conservative;

*of capital
*of optimism
*of pessimisim
*of expectations

jog on
d998


----------



## wavepicker

Gold Should find support at current levels or marginally under @$570.
This should give rise to a rally in an  EW wave C of this current sideways pattern. Target: approx $650 before heading south again


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Won't central bank selling keep a lid on price until the deadline of 24th/25th Sept passes?


----------



## scsl

Do any of you think gold is on its way up towards $650 again? Or will this bounce off $580 be short lived, with more 'correcting' to be done at the $570-580 level? 

Cheers,
scsl


----------



## Sean K

Gold needs to positively break $640 imo for there to be a new upward trend. At the moment, it's found a solid base around $560/70 which has been tested twice, but has lower highs occurring.


----------



## scsl

Interesting article I found on Dow Jones Newswires, on gold/oil/dollar correlation, dated 3 October 2006:



> NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold has recently been taking daily direction from the oil market, while the traditional gold/dollar relationship has faded, said John Hill, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. (C) in a report released Monday.
> "Gold correlations are always murky, and famously unstable over time," said Hill, who added that while the oil/gold correlation is likely to continue, it won't be without instability.
> He said the oil link reflects the "ebb and flow of investment in broad commodity indices, and the anomalous pull from pro-cyclical basic materials during a period where gold's safe-haven attributes are in abeyance."
> Gold's weaker link to the dollar probably reflects no more than a misplaced consensus bearish call on the dollar in the first half of 2006, said Hill. While a weaker dollar is normally positive for gold, he said, a more powerful secular theme is the possibility of a stealth cycle of competitive devaluations, driven by trade imbalances, demographics and entitlement bloat, which would have the effect of boosting hard assets and gold in all currencies.
> Meanwhile, said Hill, the historical correlation between the dollar and gold has seen a decoupling again.
> "A strong gold, dollar correlation was briefly reasserted in second quarter of 2006 only to fade again in the third quarter," he said. "The latest decoupling is dissimilar to fourth quarter of 2005, when gold rose sharply against the dollar, euro, and yen."
> For the gold/oil correlation, Citigroup forecasts West Texas Intermediate crude oil at $55 a barrel in 2008 and gold at $750 an ounce.
> "We expect the gold/oil relationship to remain unstable," said Hill. "Economic slowdown or recession scenarios would likely dampen energy demand, while spurring safe-haven gold buying. Geopolitical tension scenarios would probably boost both."


----------



## wayneL

Dec. del. dipping under $600 once again. "So far" we are running against the seasonal tendency... whatever that means for the immediate future.


----------



## brerwallabi

This is scary looks ike the bears have Goldilocks in their jaws.


----------



## wayneL




----------



## wayneL

I was about to post a chart, but she's not finished tanking yet... later.

disclaimer: I'm long a few ounces via ETFs


----------



## Sean K

Hhhmmm, I thought the N Korea news would have pushed it up...Support still around $575. 120% up on the year. Hardly tanking yet. Iran will be in there soon talking about stoping the oil flowing after Condi's remarks.


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:
			
		

> I was about to post a chart, but she's not finished tanking yet... later.




This could be the bottom of the pool...

...for today.


----------



## nizar

kennas said:
			
		

> Hhhmmm, I thought the N Korea news would have pushed it up...Support still around $575. 120% up on the year. Hardly tanking yet. Iran will be in there soon talking about stoping the oil flowing after Condi's remarks.




Gold started the year 120% lower than where it is now??
Im pretty sure it started at $519...


----------



## wayneL

The pits closed the Dec contract @ 581.30 and been down < 580 on electronic.

I have a level at 576 which could be support for this week, but looks dreadful on the daily. 

Goldilocks doesn't like gold  

OIL caught in the vortex as well.


----------



## Nick Radge

Here is my analysis posted last night...bit of luck I think...









*BOTTOM LINE* 
*3/10:*
EW Trend: Down
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a
*18/9:*
EW Trend: Down
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a 

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS * 
*3/10:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 37 secs)
The gap just below the critical $609 level has all but been filled and prices may now well be ready to continue lower. I would anticipate that we'll see prices attempt to probe below the $571 lows made mid-last month. This support zone below between $540 and $580 is going to take some hard work to get through, but slowly but surely we're chipping away at it. Volume does appear to be drying up again, so any decline would ideally be accompanied by increasing volume. If we do see a test down through those lows, I would then expect another reasonable bounce before breaking lower once and for all. For this bearish analysis to be invalidated, I would require a move back through $609 initially then back through $670. I cannot get bullish at this stage prices push back through there.
*18/9:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 2 secs)
Prices briefly moved above $629 before plunging on rumored Central Bank selling. The move back below the July/August lows has returned Gold to the larger down trend that we've been following over the last few months. Notice now that we have this gap just above prices - very odd indeed to see such a well defined gap. It's like some weird vacuum area that prices don't wish to go. In the last review, when prices were above this gap, I noted it as being "gap support". Obviously with prices now below this area it becomes "gap resistance". We hear and see it often; old support becomes new resistance. The area of interest to me now is $609. A break back through there will again place a clear picture in doubt so to continue with clearest bearish analysis I'd like to see prices remain below $609. 

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION * 
*3/10:*
We anticipated the gap to be filled as part of the unfolding wave-iv. Now that this has occurred, the ideal scenario is that wave-v will trace out deep into that support zone. The 61.8x wave-iii targets $533, which I think is a bit keen at this stage, although anything is possible. A more credible target is the wave-i/wave-v equilibrium at $560 which sits right in the middle of the zone. The end of this minor degree wave-v will also be the terminal point for the intermediate degree wave-(iii). Interestingly enough the expected wave-(iii), which can be calculated by 61.8x wave-(i), is $563, just a few dollars from the Fibonacci extension above. The minor degree count is invalidated above $609.
*18/9:*
A key component of this chart is that a wave-2 cannot form as a triangle. You can see a large triangle recently which has broken to the downside. The highest probable count is one suggesting a larger wave-2 on 14th July, an intermediate degree wave-(ii) on 2nd August and a minor degree wave-ii on 5th September. This sequence is known as "nesting" and in turn shows why $609 is of interest to me now. A break back above $609 will invalidate the lower degree structure and in turn place doubt on the larger degree counts. It will not invalidate the bearish view but will suggest some other more complex corrective pattern is underway. The risk right here is that gap area just above may be filled as part of the minor degree wave-iv correction. If it does fill and not move back above $609 then we have a very strong selling area for the continued move lower. Friday's prices just probed briefly into the major support zone from $540 - $580. It's going to be a hard grind to get through.


----------



## Sean K

nizar said:
			
		

> Gold started the year 120% lower than where it is now??
> Im pretty sure it started at $519...




From this time last year. A year ago. One year. 

Sorry that was so confusing.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Last nights price action in Gold is why a few months ago I declared that I do not understand Gold pricing (I think very few people do) and hence will not try and predict gold price as its just to volatile and uncertain, Uranium thats easy lets see up and up and up and oh yeah up


----------



## porkpie324

trying to predict the price of gold is a like trying to predict forex I've tried trading forex and a small attempt at gold and got severly burnt most times.porkpie


----------



## coyotte

Interesting situation :

I hold the analyst  that both Nick Radge and Steve Saville give in the highest respect --- but at the moment they are both opposing each other !

Tend to go along with a series of posts  on the deceased KITCO forum , which was basically refering to the " programme  trading " being carried out by HEDGE funds and that the COTs would just wait in ambush .

Recent activity would seem to back this up .

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

I wouldnt be surprised if this N Korea nuke test move puts a hold on gold, or even push it back up around $600. Will only take something else, like oil worries, for it to shoot up again.

Then again, if it blows over, gold may be testing $540.


----------



## wayneL

Gold getting whacked. Dec contract trading @ ~567-68


----------



## Sean K

How can POG be under pressure when N Korea are about to start WWIV? 

There is something else at play here. Who could be wanting POG to be going down, or what's it linked to? Possibly oil price, but that went back up overnight didn't it?

Perhaps the congresssional elections in the US is a factor? Perhaps they need a strong US dollar to assist with re election? Aparantly there's been some suscpiscious gold sales from central banks. Lower gold price, higher US $? After the elections the price will go back up again when central banks stop selling in support of US$. Malipulation? Surely not.


----------



## nizar

kennas said:
			
		

> How can POG be under pressure when N Korea are about to start WWIV?
> 
> There is something else at play here. Who could be wanting POG to be going down, or what's it linked to? Possibly oil price, but that went back up overnight didn't it?
> 
> Perhaps the congresssional elections in the US is a factor? Perhaps they need a strong US dollar to assist with re election? Aparantly there's been some suscpiscious gold sales from central banks. Lower gold price, higher US $? After the elections the price will go back up again when central banks stop selling in support of US$. Malipulation? Surely not.




I gave up some time ago trying to predict/explain movements in the gold price. It just doesnt make sense to me sometimes...


----------



## chicken

kennas said:
			
		

> How can POG be under pressure when N Korea are about to start WWIV?
> 
> There is something else at play here. Who could be wanting POG to be going down, or what's it linked to? Possibly oil price, but that went back up overnight didn't it?
> 
> Perhaps the congresssional elections in the US is a factor? Perhaps they need a strong US dollar to assist with re election? Aparantly there's been some suscpiscious gold sales from central banks. Lower gold price, higher US $? After the elections the price will go back up again when central banks stop selling in support of US$. Malipulation? Surely not.



Kennas....you are speaking the truth in your 2nd paragraph....once its over POG and OIL will be heading north...this is the calmness before the storm...they want be able to carry on and then you will see what OIL and Gold will cost...back to higher prices for sure


----------



## Sean K

In an e-mail alert, Peter Grandich, Editor of The Grandich Letter, gave readers his predictions.

“The good news is all systems remain go for a new, all-time highs in 2007,” began Grandich. “The bad news is, there’s not only been significant technical damage done short term, but the next few trading sessions are likely going to impact where we head for much of the balance of 2006.”

“It will be unlikely for gold to break much below $570 on a closing basis without further declining to at least $540 (May lows),” he added. “If the thought of $540 sickens you, then me stating gold could fall all the way to $500 but still be in a long-term bull market can only upset you even more.”

*“Just try to remember that we remain in a secular bull market and that a four digit price target remains - even if we need to first go as much as $70 lower,” he concluded.*


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Sean,

Awhile back I became frustrated with Gold and hence decided not reduce my exposure (ie sell off all gold stocks) as when the inflation fears of May hit, gold the great safe haven fell ?????????????????


Then when the bad middle east turmoil, Lebanon/Israel all happened gold fell?????????????????????????????


So Gold did not rally in the face of inflation, nor did it rally in the face of global instability, so as far as I'm concerned those that are controlling/manupulating gold do what they like with it,

You'll find Uranium and Zinc much easier to forecast and play with


----------



## Sean K

Why are my gold stocks up when gold went down overnight?

Sure it's up $7 on the NY close but well under yesterday. What the? A sign of them being oversold? Gold oversold? Oh, I hope so..


----------



## Sean K

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Sean,
> 
> Awhile back I became frustrated with Gold and hence decided not reduce my exposure (ie sell off all gold stocks) as when the inflation fears of May hit, gold the great safe haven fell ?????????????????
> 
> Then when the bad middle east turmoil, Lebanon/Israel all happened gold fell?????????????????????????????
> 
> So Gold did not rally in the face of inflation, nor did it rally in the face of global instability, so as far as I'm concerned those that are controlling/manupulating gold do what they like with it,
> 
> You'll find Uranium and Zinc much easier to forecast and play with




I'm confused.


----------



## coyotte

Kennas :

http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/market_logon.asp 

Try the link above --- the auther Steve Saville really comes up with in depth long term analiys of Gold -- he shares the reasoning behind the analiys with his readers.
U can take a 30 day free sub -- go back through the newsletters (years of the stuff )

Been sub, with this guy since the early 2000s 
gets it wrong now  and then , but that gold

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

Thanks for the link Coyotte,

Moment of truth for gold right now I reckon. If Nth K letting off a nuclear bomb is not enough to send gold back above previous highs then it's heading to $540...

Come on gold!!!!


----------



## phoenixrising

Banks are still selling off

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...-tonnes-of-gold/2006/10/06/1159641527340.html


----------



## chicken

phoenixrising said:
			
		

> Banks are still selling off
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...-tonnes-of-gold/2006/10/06/1159641527340.html



Better check the GOLD leases...and....they are taking off at 100mph...Gold will rise..CHECK it


----------



## vishaldon

*GOLD PRICE RISE AS RISE IN PRICE OF OIL*

Gold price rise in Asia as there was rise in oil price encouraging some investor to buy this precious metal to hedge against inflation. The price of gold is moving in the same directions as the prices of the oil this is happening since the fall in price of oil from 73 $ a barrel to 57.75 $ a barrel this is a great difference. Some investors buy gold as it can hold its value better than other assets when inflation accelerates. Apart from that the festival season in India is also creating more demand for the metal where by they treat as a good luck by wearing new ornaments on the festival day.


----------



## Dr Doom

Just have to a bit more patient with gold, as some powerfull forces are at work keeping financial markets under control untill after the US congressional elections. Also, hedge funds might be going along with the Dow Jones smoke & mirrors show as well, so if 12000 is the best the DJ can do then we might see a harsh pull back, ie correction, after reporting season and elections are over. Also, the US economy generally may lag the housing downturn by some months, so be prepared for a US recession, and all that iplies for the rest of the world. Hard landing coming up - gold through the roof!


----------



## brerwallabi

Average Gold Prices 
Comex US$/Oz

HY Jun 01 266.02 
HY Dec 01 276.66
HY Jun 02 302.48
HY Dec 02 319.18
HY Jun 03 348.92
HY Dec 03 377.50 
HY Jun 04 400.34 
HY Dec 04 418.93
HYJun 05 427.19 
HY Dec 05 462.75
HYJun 06 593.37 
Current Ave $615
Current Spot 592.80 
Gold has had a wonderful bull run since 2001 and as you can see above its consistantly made gains in the second half of the year but in that period it is yet to exceed a 10% gain in its average price over the first half of the year.
If gold is to continue in its bull run based on the annual averages we would need to see the spot increase towards $650 or is the bull run over?


----------



## CanOz

To me, gold has to hold above 610 to break the current downtrend, does anyone agree, and if so do you think it failed that last week?


----------



## GreatPig

This is the GOLD ASX code, which means prices in A$ for 100g.

Looking like a bearish triangle formation to me.

GP


----------



## CanOz

how do you get that chart GP? I just use the Kitco site, but i like yours better.
 

Having second thoughts about my PNA shares. I guess i should stick to my plan, and if they reverse again i'll ditch them once its confirmed.

Thanks,


----------



## nizar

GreatPig said:
			
		

> This is the GOLD ASX code, which means prices in A$ for 100g.
> 
> Looking like a bearish triangle formation to me.
> 
> GP




GP, what is the price target?

canaussieuk - GOLD is the asx code for this security, each share entitles you to 1/10th of a ounce of gold in australian dollars. Tracks gold price well (obviously). This is a (great?) wat to get exposure to gold without worrying about company fundamentals, management, earnings, mine life, production costs, etc.


----------



## tasmanian

If it breaks this triangle to the downside.I think $540.then gold stocks will be worth getting on board big time.


----------



## tasmanian

thats $540 yankee dollars obvisoly.

thats my taregt price anyway


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:
			
		

> GP, what is the price target?
> 
> canaussieuk - GOLD is the asx code for this security, each share entitles you to 1/10th of a ounce of gold in australian dollars. Tracks gold price well (obviously). This is a (great?) wat to get exposure to gold without worrying about company fundamentals, management, earnings, mine life, production costs, etc.




Fascinating, i never knew it existed! Thank you. Is this the only precious metal listed this way?

Cheers,


----------



## noirua

The following is the opinion of the Guru Marc Faber about one week ago:  http://www.ameinfo.com/99057.html


----------



## bvbfan

CanOz said:
			
		

> Is this the only precious metal listed this way?
> 
> Cheers,




In Australia there is only the 2 gold funds, GOLD and ZAUWBA (from Perth Mint)

If you head overseas there is SLV - silver etf in the US
In London there are ETF's now for a lot of commodities, click on the link for the list and codes


----------



## CanOz

noirua said:
			
		

> The following is the opinion of the Guru Marc Faber about one week ago:  http://www.ameinfo.com/99057.html





Good grief, and i thought Wayne was a bear. Two days left to go and October's a memory. I wonder if anything eventful will happen to the DOW overnight?

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K

Yogi tipped a major event occuring on the west coast of the US of A on 23 Oct involving water that would significantly effect the market...tick, tick, tick...


----------



## Sean K

Well, nothing from west coast but gold pushing $600 again. Really needs to break this downward trend started in May/June to kick the general gold sector off. Needs to hold above $600 and hold. Hold!!

Interesting however that some gold stocks have actually been trending UP, while POG has been going DOWN.

Take POG and NCM for example. I am sure there are some others out there not tracking gold. Even LHG has been going sideways, but not down. 

Good for Aussie goldies when POG breaks up after US mid terms.


----------



## Sean K

Gold has recently recorded it's first *higher low* in a while. Trying to break $600 again, and with US mid terms about to run, POG will heading up when $US drops. All coinciding for a return to gold bull imo.


----------



## Sean K

*Gold, Little Changed, Heads for 3rd Weekly Gain as Dollar Drops*

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed in New York, headed for a third straight weekly gain after a U.S. report showed economic growth slowed in the third quarter, weakening the dollar and boosting the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

Gold, sold in dollars, generally moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. currency, which today headed for the second straight weekly drop against other main currencies. Gold is up 16 percent this year, while the dollar index has fallen 6 percent against a basket of six major currencies.

``There's a big focus on what could happen to the dollar,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a gold trader and president of Hudson River Futures in New York. ``I'm liking gold again.''

Gold futures for December delivery was at $600 an ounce at 10:38 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 0.6 percent this week.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate, less than forecast and the slowest pace in more than three years, as housing slumped and the trade deficit widened.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said central banks and private investors are beginning to shift holdings from the dollar to the euro.

``We're beginning to see some move from the dollar to the euro, not only in the private sector, but by monetary authorities, by central banks,'' Greenspan said yesterday at a convention of the Commercial Finance Association in Washington.

`Supporting Side'

Analysts say Greenspan's comments were bullish for gold, which usually moves in tandem with the euro. Both gold and the euro rose against the dollar from 2002 to 2004. Last year, gold gained 18 percent even as the dollar rose 14 percent against the euro.

``Mr. Greenspan's comments about migration into the euro is on the supporting side for gold,'' said Frank McGhee, head metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services Inc. in Chicago.

The metal faces resistance at $600, analysts who study price charts said. Gold closed above $600 twice this month.

``Gold needs to get through a series of important resistances between $602 and $605 to attract substantial fresh buying,'' said Robin Bhar, an analyst at UBS AG in London.


----------



## nizar

kennas said:
			
		

> Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said central banks and private investors are beginning to shift holdings from the dollar to the euro.
> 
> ``We're beginning to see some move from the dollar to the euro, not only in the private sector, but by monetary authorities, by central banks,'' Greenspan said yesterday at a convention of the Commercial Finance Association in Washington.




Can u believe that Alan Greenspan said this??
I guess now that hes not Fed Chief he can say stuff like that....


----------



## markrmau

Gold appears to have decoupled from oil - if it has, it is very bullish for gold.

Crude -3.24%, Gold +1.4% at time of writing, minus whatever delays marketwatch have on comex and nymex.


----------



## wayneL

markrmau said:
			
		

> Gold appears to have decoupled from oil - if it has, it is very bullish for gold.
> 
> Crude -3.24%, Gold +1.4% at time of writing, minus whatever delays marketwatch have on comex and nymex.




Agree it's decoupled to some extent.

But according to at least this article... http://www.mineweb.net/gold_silver/343186.htm things aren't all that bullish going forward.

But chaos an all that (both meanings)... I'm a more enthusiastic buyer than a seller.

Looks like a reversal bar for today, could have some downage for a couple days.


----------



## markrmau

Bugger, definate resistance at $610.

I never did like fundamentals of gold. It is definately sentiment driven. 

On the bright side, if $610 clears, we can sit around and say it is a range breakout and has put in a tripple bottom. Better than stuffing around trying to work out supply and demand. 

Edit: actually a H&S bottom


----------



## vert

its had a good run up over the past week to $600 and now a close above is positve. i would like to see it consolidate between $600 and $610 rather than fall below again. if so this will be a good base to run up from till christmas, with the usd declining and the elections almost out of the way everything looks positive.


----------



## vert

wow this is looking good, gold $618 now should see some good action in the gold stocks today. bsg and lhg for me


----------



## zed327

bsg for me.


----------



## spitrader1

zed327 said:
			
		

> bsg for me.



GOLD at $620, 8 week high, good day for kennas and i.


----------



## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> GOLD at $620, 8 week high, good day for kennas and i.



How are you punting on gold spi? Stock or futures?

Edit-Disregard that question- just saw your post in the LHG thread


----------



## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> How are you punting on gold spi? Stock or futures?
> 
> Edit-Disregard that question- just saw your post in the LHG thread



no worries mate...yeah just but some LHG the other day at 2.75


----------



## professor_frink

well good luck sir, hopefully you won't need it!


----------



## Sean K

@ $615 now, holding ok. Now that it seems to have broken $600, and $US weakness, plus seemingly decoupled from oil atm, should be some money flowing back into gold stocks. Clearly broken down trend on the 1 year chart. Resistance at $620.


----------



## Fab

Where can I check LME index price ?


----------



## Sean K

Fab said:
			
		

> Where can I check LME index price ?




Perhaps the LME   

http://www.lme.co.uk/


----------



## Fab

Thanks


----------



## Sean K

0942 [Dow Jones] Investment funds appear to be moving out of oil, copper and into gold, adding momentum to precious metal's recent rally, say traders; gold's move to around 2-month high at nearly $617/oz underpinned by belief economic slowdown will keep U.S. rates, USD in check. Divergence from other commodities likely to continue unless oil, now at $58.50/bbl, moves below $55 or above $65, which would require inflation adjustment. For now, however, gold taking cues from traditional nemesis USD. (JAD)


----------



## wavepicker

I think if Gold does not stall here it should should carry to the $633-647 price range where it will be overcome by significant resistance. Ongoing sideways move that started on the 14th Of June should persist into next year before possibly breaking lower in wave C that will draw prices sub $500 to end this multi year correction.

Agree USD is the key, but current pullback should only be temporary IMO before current uptrend gains momentum again.


Cheers


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:
			
		

> I think if Gold does not stall here it should should carry to the $633-647 price range where it will be overcome by significant resistance. Ongoing sideways move that started on the 14th Of June should persist into next year before possibly breaking lower in wave C that will draw prices sub $500 to end this multi year correction.
> 
> Agree USD is the key, but current pullback should only be temporary IMO before current uptrend gains momentum again.
> 
> Cheers



So, was top of wave B at $660 WP? If we break that during this run does the EW count breakdown and have to be then revised?


----------



## Kauri

My E/W count may be technically incorrect but this is how I am seeing gold at the moment.  
  Have entered at 607 on exit from Triangle and break of horizontal supp/res with a tight stop at 599..  (should be 602 but I have dropped it below the round number affect). If that stop is taken will be looking for a possible re-entry if the lower triangle line gives a strong bounce.


----------



## Sean K

Maybe we could be starting a wave 1?


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> Maybe we could be starting a wave 1?




       Unfortunately it's along way to the 676 level to get confirmation..


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I have little doubt that by October this year we will have $800 gold.



Hello rederob,


Just wondering what your current thinking is on Gold given the $800 target by October was not reached based on your forecast on 24/05/06? (post 488 of this thread).

Would you agree now that wavepicker’s Elliott Wave forecast (post 454 of this thread 20/05/06) was pretty much “on the money”?

Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hello rederob,
> 
> Just wondering what your current thinking is on Gold given the $800 target by October was not reached based on your forecast on 24/05/06? (post 488 of this thread).
> 
> Would you agree now that wavepicker’s Elliott Wave forecast (post 167 of this thread 20/05/06) was pretty much “on the money”?
> 
> Regards
> 
> Magdoran




Post 167?


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Post 167?



Thanks kennas,

Slip of the mind/keyboard... should be 454

Having fun post market close...


Mag
P.S. Just edited it in time... Ha!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hello rederob,
> 
> Just wondering what your current thinking is on Gold given the $800 target by October was not reached based on your forecast on 24/05/06? (post 488 of this thread).
> 
> Would you agree now that wavepicker’s Elliott Wave forecast (post 454 of this thread 20/05/06) was pretty much “on the money”?
> 
> Regards
> 
> Magdoran




That chart does look pretty good, but could the current retractment be a pullback to virtually the .382 fib line, and the low of gold at $560 ish be the end of a wave c? Now on to a wave 1?

I hope so. he he. 

Like all EW, it's in the eye of the beholder sometimes. 

Wavepicker's theory sounds pretty damn good though.


----------



## GreatPig

kennas said:
			
		

> Clearly broken down trend on the 1 year chart



Hmm... that Kitco chart doesn't match very well with the chart of GOLD on the ASX. I think that second peak in early July is missing a couple of higher prices.

It's broken through the more recent lower downtrend line, but still has a way to go to reach the overall peak downtrend line.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Sean K

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... that Kitco chart doesn't match very well with the chart of GOLD on the ASX. I think that second peak in early July is missing a couple of higher prices.
> 
> It's broken through the more recent lower downtrend line, but still has a way to go to reach the overall peak downtrend line.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




GP, how does GOLD relate to the gold price? Is it a direct relationship? Doesn't look like it does it?


----------



## GreatPig

Kennas,

I don't know exactly, but I gather it's supposed to follow the gold price pretty closely (in A$ though). And the chart for ZAUWBA, the Gold Corp warrant, looks very similar to this.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Kauri

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... that Kitco chart doesn't match very well with the chart of GOLD on the ASX. I think that second peak in early July is missing a couple of higher prices.
> 
> It's broken through the more recent lower downtrend line, but still has a way to go to reach the overall peak downtrend line.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




Kitco chart??? I think it is a continuous contract chart whereas yours is possibly a day session (Aussie??) .. judging by the gaps anyway. I trade by CFD's and my chart matches my providers, so I guess the chart you use depends on where your broker sources their prices. Mine is possibly out of kilter with everyone elses.  
Cheers
Kauri

        OOOOPs, sorry GP, I see you wern't talking to me..


----------



## thestorm

When the Republicans win the elections next week they will push Gold back down to $400.

Then watch all the goldies cry! - ha that will be a laugh!!


----------



## markrmau

Gold and light crude diverging a little more.


----------



## wayneL

thestorm said:
			
		

> When the Republicans win the elections next week...



That would be a disaster!! 

Mind you if the Dems win, that would be a disater too.

***saving for a space ship


----------



## wayneL

markrmau said:
			
		

> Gold and light crude diverging a little more.




Mark,

Check out the US dollar index. Quite some reverse correlation there.

...for whatever it's worth.


----------



## Sean K

Holding above $620. Bullish. For now.


----------



## GreatPig

Considered trying to ride it back up to the higher downtrend line, but I don't think there's enough reward in it (without leverage) for the potential risk.

Think I'll just keep watching this one for now.

GP


----------



## Kauri

GP
         What is the instrument you trade. If the price on your chart is $Aussie it looks to be about the equivalent of 1/10 oz. Is it a warrant of some sort. Who do you trade it with? I have found a similar chart in my Bhodi downloads called called   "GOLD.RED.PREF". Have no idea what it is.
         Cheers
                 Kauri.
         PS...  I use your AIM dll in AB and it is brilliant.


----------



## GreatPig

Kauri said:
			
		

> What is the instrument you trade.



There are two possibilities: GOLD and ZAUWBA. The latter is a warrant from Gold Corp (basically the Perth Mint). Neither are leveraged. GOLD is for 1/10th oz while the warrant is for 1/100th oz.

I held the warrant for a while, back in June/July, but nothing else since. It has a pretty wicked spread, which covers some sort of lease payment.



> I use your AIM dll in AB and it is brilliant.



Thanks.

Are you running any stocks on AIM now?

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Kauri

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Are you running any stocks on AIM now?
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




  GP,    
 Have posted 2 of my current setups ( naturally picked 2 of the better performing ones     ).  In CAB and IGO threads.
       Cheers
               Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Gold at $627....  

Holding above what was resistance at $620, now possible support. On the up IMO but still just a little too early maybe.


----------



## GreatPig

Until my trading account has moved from Etrade back to NAB, I've got no spare cash to buy gold now anyway.

GP


----------



## Sean K

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Until my trading account has moved from Etrade back to NAB, I've got no spare cash to buy gold now anyway.
> 
> GP




I'll lend you some at 10% GP.


----------



## 2020hindsight

Since this gold price question seems to be boiling down "who wins next week", a couple of quotes by Barbara Ehrenreich  http://www.wisdomquotes.com/cat_ethics.html :-



> I was raised the old-fashioned way, with a stern set of moral principles: Never lie, cheat, steal or knowingly spread a venereal disease. Never speed up to hit a pedestrian or, or course, stop to kick a pedestrian who has already been hit. From which it followed, of course, that one would never ever -- on pain of deletion from dozens of Christmas card lists across the country -- vote Republican.
> 
> Then again she also says :-
> Personally, I have nothing against work, particularly when performed, quietly and unobtrusively, by someone else. I just don't happen to think it's an appropriate subject for an "ethic."




So I guess if she is typical of US opinion, the Democrats would get in , and the US economy , which has allegedly enjoyed such meteoric growth under GWB - would go downhill due to laziness.

PS I notice claims that GWB has manipulated the court ruling on Saddam to be announced a few days before the election.  Who says he isn't a genius lol.  (when self interest is involved).


----------



## GreatPig

kennas said:
			
		

> I'll lend you some at 10% GP.



Thanks Shylock, but my boat is about to come in 

GP


----------



## Sean K

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Thanks Shylock, but my boat is about to come in
> 
> GP




A golden Arc?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Thanks Shylock





Priceless call lol, 10% isn't so bad unless Kennas wants a pound of flesh for default   


Gold needs to hold $620 and consolidate before it can test $720 again, not holding my breath


----------



## Smurf1976

wayneL said:
			
		

> ***saving for a space ship



For some strange reason a certain other forum comes to mind whenever I hear those words...


----------



## wayneL

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> For some strange reason a certain other forum comes to mind whenever I hear those words...




OK OK OK!!! I admiy it! I stole it from there!!! LOL


----------



## 2020hindsight

wayneL said:
			
		

> OK OK OK!!! I admiy it! I stole it from there!!! LOL




Wayne in 100 years from now, no one will remember! 

(except our great-grandkids that is lol

I recall once the Daily Telegraph copied the Mirror ! lol -(at least the historical record is complete on one forum


----------



## Sean K

*Gold off two-month highs but seen strong*

By Atul Prakash

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold hit a new two-month high on Monday before easing on profit-taking, but sentiment remained bullish on healthy technicals and geopolitical concerns.

Silver also traded off its two-month highs, while platinum retreated after surging the past week on speculation that an exchange traded fund could be launched.

"Some of the technical indicators have turned very strong," said Michael Widmer, metals analyst at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank.

"With all the deceleration in U.S. economic growth, there could be further pressure probably on the dollar and that means that you should have further upward pressure on the gold price."

Gold <XAU=> was quoted at $624.80/625.80 an ounce by 1531 GMT after briefly touching a high of $629.40, the highest since September 7. It closed at $627.50/628.50 in New York late on Friday.

The dollar was little changed against the euro <EUR=>.

"We believe that gold has clearly regained its historical correlation with the U.S. dollar, and we continue to expect a weakening dollar to support a higher gold price," Goldman Sachs said in a research report.

It remained bullish on gold, but lowered its forecast for gold prices at the end of 2007 to $750 from $800.


----------



## Sean K

Technically gold has broken down out of the upward run IMO, but I think this will be shortlived. $US weakness will continue as any change in US Gov will not ultimately effect the way Americans live. In Debt, with interest rates increasing...

Gold futures close with a more than $9 loss

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:16 PM ET Nov 8, 2006


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed Wednesday with a loss of more than $9 an ounce as traders responded to mid-term election results - a resounding victory for the Democratic Party -- by locking in some of the metal's recent gains.

The decline could come from the "perception that the Democrats gain in Congress has eased some worry with a policy shift in D.C.," said Peter Spina, chief investment strategist at GoldSeek.com.

But "there is little doubt in my view that this is a misleading perspective as the shift in power to the Democrats will alleviate the massive trade deficit, issues in the Middle East, declining U.S. dollar," he said.

Then again, "the chances of making any real significant changes that would in the end benefit the weakening U.S. dollar, look highly unlikely and any impressions otherwise will soon be discounted," he said.

Overall, "gold has been unable to push above some resistance above and a brief consolidation is underway," he said.

Gold for December delivery closed down $9.40 at $618.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its weakest closing level since Oct. 31. On Tuesday, the contract surpassed the $630-an-ounce level that has proved a crucial resistance point in the past week but then retreated to close slightly lower.

"In the run-up to the U.S. election the markets did not know what to do nor how to respond, and now in the run-down from the U.S. election, the markets are still confused," said Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter.
Democrats have won a clear majority in the House of Representatives in mid-term elections and may also take control of the Senate. See election story for the latest. The result sent stocks lower, although the dollar showed a more muted reaction, trading only modestly higher against major currencies. See Market Snapshot. 

*"After the dust settles from the U.S. elections, the world will awake to see the U.S. more divided then ever before," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich letter. "Radicals around the world will take heart and the world will be as dangerous as ever before," he said, adding that "gold can only benefit in the long run."*

For now, other metals followed gold lower Wednesday. December silver futures fell 12.5 cents to end at $12.55 an ounce, January platinum fell $25, or 2.1%, to close at $1,167.30 an ounce and December palladium dipped $5.90 to end at $328.40 an ounce.

December copper fell 12.1 cents to finish at $3.2445 a pound. "Copper continues to break down technically, and on a weekly close below $3.20, can fall all the way down to $2.50," said Grandich.

On the supply side, gold inventories were up 64 troy ounces to 7.53 million troy ounces as of late Tuesday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose by 324,157 troy ounces to 106.8 million troy ounces. Copper supplies rose by 547 short tons to 25,505 short tons.

Metals-mining shares inched lower to mirror the weakness in the metals futures.


----------



## Kauri

So long as it holds over $602 I'm not too concerned.


----------



## The Mint Man

Gold dosnt seem to know what its doing today... Up $1.20 one second and down $0.40 the next... happened a few times this morning.


----------



## Kauri

and stop moved to $629  ..


----------



## Sean K

Breaking $630, seems to give more reason to be confident this is probably in an uptrend. As previously said, through $640 ultimate confirmation IMO. Or until it does something else.  :


----------



## spitrader1

kennas said:
			
		

> Breaking $630, seems to give more reason to be confident this is probably in an uptrend. As previously said, through $640 ultimate confirmation IMO. Or until it does something else.  :



well done kennas, unfortunately i sold my lhg..


----------



## The Mint Man

just got home from work. Very pleased to see gold at $635   However LHG hasn't reached the price I want  see what happens


----------



## Sean K

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> just got home from work. Very pleased to see gold at $635   However LHG hasn't reached the price I want  see what happens



I'll be happier when gold is at $650. I recokon LHG will be pushing through $3.10 at that time. That could be a little way off.....Gold still not in confirmed uptrend, but looking ok.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> I'll be happier when gold is at $650. I recokon LHG will be pushing through $3.10 at that time. That could be a little way off.....Gold still not in confirmed uptrend, but looking ok.




     Was gold ever in downtrend to begin with???


----------



## Sean K

Depends on your time frame. Short term/long term?

From 2003, no. From May, maybe. From July, yes.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> Depends on your time frame. Short term/long term?
> 
> From 2003, no. From May, maybe. From July, yes.




       So how do you decide when your July downtrend is over??
        Higher lows and higher highs??
         Swing charts??
          Bounce from significant t/l's??
           Press articles??
            Why $650


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:
			
		

> So how do you decide when your July downtrend is over??
> Higher lows and higher highs??
> Swing charts??
> Bounce from significant t/l's??
> Press articles??
> Why $650




Downward trend resistance lines broken combined with clearing previous resistance points and having higher lows occurring. 

Sorry this Kitco chart isn't as colourful as yours but $620 was a key resistance line, which should be now support. It has tested it once and broke back up. At this level it has also broken the downward trend line so in retrospect we might be able to say that that was the end to the downward trend.

$640 is the next resistance level, and if it breaks this then the downward trend is clearly broken and it's in a new phase. 

When does the uptrend start to occur though? Well, I reckon that we need to wait and see. It could end up just going sideways for a while. My guestimate is that an 'uptrend' will be when it's tested support and resistance lines a couple of times and broken up through $650. 

I'm just taking a pluck of course.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:
			
		

> Breaking $630, seems to give more reason to be confident this is probably in an uptrend. As previously said, through $640 ultimate confirmation IMO. Or until it does something else.  :




So, I take this comment back after this evaluation.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> Downward trend resistance lines broken combined with clearing previous resistance points and having higher lows occurring.
> 
> Sorry this Kitco chart isn't as colourful as yours but $620 was a key resistance line, which should be now support. It has tested it once and broke back up. At this level it has also broken the downward trend line so in retrospect we might be able to say that that was the end to the downward trend.
> 
> $640 is the next resistance level, and if it breaks this then the downward trend is clearly broken and it's in a new phase.
> 
> When does the uptrend start to occur though? Well, I reckon that we need to wait and see. It could end up just going sideways for a while. My guestimate is that an 'uptrend' will be when it's tested support and resistance lines a couple of times and broken up through $650.
> 
> I'm just taking a pluck of course.




         Kennass
        Thanks for your answer, I've always been more interested in the reasoning behind someones call as opposed to the call itself.


----------



## Magdoran

This is not financial advice, but I expect Gold to pull back tonight or Monday until either the 21st or 27th of November (prefer the 27th), and then resume bullishly.  

How’s that Kauri?  Just take a look at wavepicker’s chart posted 14th of June (post 559 on this thread).  Gold has followed this chart quite faithfully.  Of course this could be totally wrong...  It will be interesting to watch.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## robots

hello,

now that the election is out of the way gold and oil will begin big uptrend again as inflation concerns come to the forefront again

interest rates will head to 10% in the near future and gold will strive with this and supply issues

thankyou
robots


----------



## Kauri

Magdoran said:
			
		

> This is not financial advice, but I expect Gold to pull back tonight or Monday until either the 21st or 27th of November (prefer the 27th), and then resume bullishly.
> 
> How’s that Kauri? Just take a look at wavepicker’s chart posted 14th of June (post 559 on this thread). Gold has followed this chart quite faithfully. Of course this could be totally wrong... It will be interesting to watch.
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran




Magdoran..
Just found the chart/commentary by Wavepicker, impressive.
First off, I am relatively new to the E/W principles and post charts mainly as an aid to improving myself in it, (can't change the counts etc mid trade when they are out there   ). 
I've estimated (hoping for) around the $650 level for the minor 5, before dropping back and starting the next impulsive push, but whatever transpires my stop will keep me on the right side of the trade.
Have tried working with the time dimension but have not really had much success with it, I take my hat off to you for fitting it in with the price projections.
Regards,
Kauri.


----------



## wavepicker

Expected target for this leg up was between $633-655. 
 A break above $676.5 would invalidate the bearish case, and something else more bullish is happening.

Will be interesting to see what transpires

Cheers


----------



## Magdoran

Kauri said:
			
		

> Magdoran..
> Just found the chart/commentary by Wavepicker, impressive.
> First off, I am relatively new to the E/W principles and post charts mainly as an aid to improving myself in it, (can't change the counts etc mid trade when they are out there ).
> I've estimated (hoping for) around the $650 level for the minor 5, before dropping back and starting the next impulsive push, but whatever transpires my stop will keep me on the right side of the trade.
> Have tried working with the time dimension but have not really had much success with it, I take my hat off to you for fitting it in with the price projections.
> Regards,
> Kauri.




Hi Kauri,

Indeed, I see “time” sometimes as more important to setting up my exit and entry rules than price (although of course price is the key in terms of profit, and it is price action and the pattern that is central of course).

But in this case we’ll just have to see how the market pans out.  There may be a long entry on one of the key dates… provided the pattern is not invalidated.


Regards



Magdoran


----------



## Sean K

Gold hit $638 almost before profit takers came in. The oldd story about China diversifying out of $US gave it a boost, then brought it back when stated they could move into a basket of commods and foreign currencies. This would make more sence, but certainly just lifting their reserves just a few % into gold will significantly effect the markets. Over the next few years China will have trillions in the bank. 

Gold bounced very well from $620 now providing some short term support. I like this consolidation above this previous resistance line. Looking good for gold.

(ignoring EW count for the minute. Will be very interested to see how we fit the count to the final chart, whenever the 'final' chart is?)


----------



## greggy

I tend to agree with you.  I hope that gold can reach new highs during the next four months or so.  I'll only start to worry when everyone in the press begins predicting that gold will be going through the thousand dollar mark.


----------



## Sean K

greggy said:
			
		

> I tend to agree with you.  I hope that gold can reach new highs during the next four months or so.  I'll only start to worry when everyone in the press begins predicting that gold will be going through the thousand dollar mark.



I think half the press already think the $1000 mark is possible. The other half say it will crash.  : 

I'm in the $1000 pack, based on US economy and geopolitics. 

I can not put a time frame on this. I think that's futile, and embarrassing when it ultimately fails. Check Jemma's predictions months ago on where EXT was going. Funny reading.


----------



## greggy

kennas said:
			
		

> I think half the press already think the $1000 mark is possible. The other half say it will crash.  :
> 
> I'm in the $1000 pack, based on US economy and geopolitics.
> 
> Good morning Kennas,
> I can not put a time frame on this. I think that's futile, and embarrassing when it ultimately fails. Check Jemma's predictions months ago on where EXT was going. Funny reading.



I hope you're right.  I will just worry when everyone in the press agrees with the one thousand prediction.  I must say that I laugh whenever I see the Storm's next gloomy prediction on gold or anything else that is making shareholders money.  Maybe he's short on gold.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> (ignoring EW count for the minute. Will be very interested to see how we fit the count to the final chart, whenever the 'final' chart is?)




    Ah, but that's the easy part that most people do, to be really usefull try doing it before the right hand side of the chart is complete..



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> whenever I see the Storm's next gloomy prediction on gold or anything else that is making shareholders money. May be he's short on gold.




  Gold is not all he is short on....


----------



## coyotte

10 year log chart of spot

suppose it depends on if you take the upper trend line as the top channel or the spline  ?

Cheers


----------



## greggy

Kauri said:
			
		

> Ah, but that's the easy part that most people do, to be really usefull try doing it before the right hand side of the chart is complete..
> 
> 
> 
> Gold is not all he is short on....



Good morning Kauri,
Liked the comment abouth the Storm....Very accurate indeed.


----------



## Sean K

For those that like Peter Grandich, this is a cracker of an article commenting on gold, oil, uranium, US economy, amongst other things. 

*Grandich Letter Special Alert: GOLD - Ready to Shine Again*

By Peter Grandich      
October 31, 2006

The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.” - George Bernard Shaw

There will be enough pundits commenting on what the U.S. election results mean, but IMHO, voting this year is really in the end picking your own poison. The results can only lead to more division at a time when the world no longer wishes it had an Uncle Sam. Rest assured the “talking heads” on Tout-TV (CNBC-TV) will spin the elections to satisfy the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street. But, like the Roman Empire, the beginning of the end of the United States’ reign as the #1 world power is well under way.

Economic Overview –

I’ve used one sentence to paint the picture I see in the U.S.: “Americans have been robbing Peter to pay Paul but Peter is tapped out.”  Not a week or so goes by when I don’t meet another family that has been caught on the treadmill of keeping up with the Joneses on the false Madison Avenue/Wall Street tale that more money equals more happiness. These poor souls have been hit hard by engulfing their family in a sea of mounting debt.  They’re watching their ATM machine (known as home) now flashing “See Branch Manager” thanks to the bursting of the real estate bubble. 

Continues......

http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/nov062006.html


----------



## Sean K

*Finding Value In Australia's Gold Sector*
FN Arena News - November 14 2006

By Chris Shaw

Barclays Capital suggests technically the outlook for gold remains positive and the price of the metal is still likely to move higher. Trading guru Dennis Gartman of "The Gartman Report" is long and suggests weakness should be bought rather than strength sold, all of which looks positive for Australian gold stocks.

How positive? According to Gold Report Australia (GRA) the Australian listed gold sector is undervalued by as much as 50% at the larger end of the market and potentially as much as 100% at the smaller end, with a re-rating expected to start in the current quarter.

The GRA outlook is based on a view the gold price still has substantially further to run, as if the price can remain above US$618 per ounce it could potential set a new high by the end of the calendar year. This means a move above US$787 per ounce in little more than a month, something that would certainty bring renewed interest to the sector.

The move is unlikely to end there in the group's view, as it sees potential for the gold price to test US$1,000 per ounce if managed funds return to the gold market. This would be beneficial for margins for gold producers, resulting in higher earnings. The group also expects further corporate activity in the sector, which again is something that would attract interest from the trading end of the market.

So assuming gold has higher to go, where should investors look for the best value in the sector or the best bang for their buck? Austock Securities has come to the rescue by providing a summary of the sector, allowing for a comparison of the various gold stocks the broker covers.

A review of the list shows the broker rates Newcrest (NCM), Sino Gold (SGX), Oceana (OGD), Resolute (RSG) and Perseverance (PSV) as Buys, while Austindo (ARX) is a Speculative Buy. Lihir (LHG), Bendigo (BDG) and Tanami (TAM) are rated as Hold.

In terms of valuations, the broker estimates Bendigo is trading at the largest discount to valuation at 68%, though given the company's recent issues and the resulting negative sentiment this is balanced by its Hold rating.

Leaving aside Tanami, which is at the speculative end, Oceana is at a 54% discount to the broker's valuation of $1.64, Resolute at a 61% discount to its $3.88 valuation, Newcrest a 29% discount to its $32.88 valuation and Perseverance a 16% discount to its valuation of $0.56. Sino is the exception among the Buys, trading at a 35% premium to the broker's valuation of $4.04. In contrast, Lihir Gold is trading at a premium of almost 50% to the broker's valuation of $2.00.

Another valuation measure in the gold sector is how much the market is willing to pay for the company's reserves, so the broker has estimated the market capitalisation per ounce of reserves, which gives another insight into where the value lies.

The broker has based this analysis on forecast gold prices of US$625 per ounce in 2007, US$550 per ounce in 2008 and US$500 per ounce in 2009. Using this method Resolute and Oceana appear cheapest, the former's market cap/oz of reserves measure coming in at $95 and the latter at $99.

In contrast, Sino is on a market cap/oz of reserves measure of $354, while for Bendigo the measure is $2,921. Newcrest and Perseverance look reasonable on this measure, coming in at $132 and $149 respectively.

Given the difference between the broker's forecasts for the gold price and the current spot price the broker has also incorporated some valuation measures based on the current market price for gold of about US$629 per ounce, carrying this price forward for the next couple of years.


----------



## Sean K

Gold moment of short term truth. To hold above $620, or not? 

Medium term direction could hinge on this.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

kennas said:
			
		

> *Finding Value In Australia's Gold Sector*
> FN Arena News - November 14 2006
> 
> By Chris Shaw
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In contrast, Sino is on a market cap/oz of reserves measure of $354, while for Bendigo the measure is $2,921. Newcrest and Perseverance look reasonable on this measure, coming in at $132 and $149 respectively.
> 
> 
> Hmmm, that ones not right, sounds like a crab analyst to me!.


----------



## Sean K

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> kennas said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Finding Value In Australia's Gold Sector*
> FN Arena News - November 14 2006
> 
> By Chris Shaw
> 
> In contrast, Sino is on a market cap/oz of reserves measure of $354, while for Bendigo the measure is $2,921. Newcrest and Perseverance look reasonable on this measure, coming in at $132 and $149 respectively.
> 
> Hmmm, that ones not right, sounds like a *crab analyst* to me!.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Seems unusual doesn't it. Is there a number too many in there?
> 
> Crab analyst?
Click to expand...


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Crab Analyst........He should join BDG'S Managagement. Thier Market Cap vs Total reserves is not as he has calculated  .


----------



## Magdoran

kennas said:
			
		

> I think half the press already think the $1000 mark is possible. The other half say it will crash.  :
> 
> I'm in the $1000 pack, based on US economy and geopolitics.
> 
> I can not put a time frame on this. I think that's futile, and embarrassing when it ultimately fails. Check Jemma's predictions months ago on where EXT was going. Funny reading.



Hello Kennas,


How are you?

I do hope that you were not suggesting by implication that my use of time was futile too, with your comment above, were you?  Certainly if you are not a time cycle based trader/investor trying to put a time frame is problematic, agreed.

However, several recent time based forecasts I have made to some ASF members privately have been accurate to the day (the discipline allows 1 trading day plus or minus - one was also right on the forecast price increment too).

The time points I have posted recently could be highs from here, or lows… or both highs, or both lows, or one high and one low… if the cycle is correct (which has been valid so far – but anything can happen in the market).  

Based on the current pattern, I assumed a pull back, but it is quite possible that gold rallies into these dates, and they become resistance, as opposed to gold falling into these dates, and them becoming support.  Why I was so confident the recent high would have a pull back was time and pattern based.  The high was right on a key increment in time.  Hence a high probability of resistance…

It is of course possible that pitch is so great that it screams through these dates, quite possible, but I’m certain that there is a cycle running through Gold which I have been tracking for some time now.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Sean K

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hello Kennas,
> 
> How are you?
> 
> I do hope that you were not suggesting by implication that my use of time was futile too, with your comment above, were you?  Certainly if you are not a time cycle based trader/investor trying to put a time frame is problematic, agreed.
> 
> However, several recent time based forecasts I have made to some ASF members privately have been accurate to the day (the discipline allows 1 trading day plus or minus - one was also right on the forecast price increment too).
> 
> The time points I have posted recently could be highs from here, or lows… or both highs, or both lows, or one high and one low… if the cycle is correct (which has been valid so far – but anything can happen in the market).
> 
> Based on the current pattern, I assumed a pull back, but it is quite possible that gold rallies into these dates, and they become resistance, as opposed to gold falling into these dates, and them becoming support.  Why I was so confident the recent high would have a pull back was time and pattern based.  The high was right on a key increment in time.  Hence a high probability of resistance…
> 
> It is of course possible that pitch is so great that it screams through these dates, quite possible, but I’m certain that there is a cycle running through Gold which I have been tracking for some time now.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Magdoran




Hi Mag, I'm good thanks!   

How are you?

The above comments were really made in regard to particular people claiming 'this stock will go to 20 cents by Friday!!!' when it's sitting on 5 on Wednesday...  

I must say I am a sceptic. It seems convenient for EW/time based practitioners to just use certain stock charts that do fit in to the theory but then ignore the rest. I would like to know what % of stocks actually do follow EW or cycles. I would hazzard a guess to say very few.   

I would also like to compare ALL of Yogi's predictions to see what % actually make it? I hazzard a guess not many. I know Gann's a different game, and I'm not comparing it directly with wave theories, but I just raise that as another example of certain practitioners clinging on to the few examples that fit the profile and disregarding the multitute. 

I'm still trying to fit the XAO into an EW count and it's impossible. This to me would tend to suggest that as the XAO is a summary of many stocks, and it can't fit, then it doesn't work.   

So, I'm sticking to probabilities on basic charting for the minute. Until I see the light!


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> I'm still trying to fit the XAO into an EW count and it's impossible. This to me would tend to suggest that as the XAO is a summary of many stocks, and it can't fit, then it doesn't work.
> 
> So, I'm sticking to probabilities on basic charting for the minute. Until I see the light!




         Food for thought...


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:
			
		

> Food for thought...



Thanks Kauri. You have managed to manipulate that count to the chart quite well.   I mean really, get 10 EW practitioners in a room and you'll get 15 different opinions. (I stole that) 

I am really WANTING to believe in EW, but I'm really struggling. I think it could be a very valuable tool to add to all the other analysis, but aaaahhhhh!


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> I am really WANTING to believe in EW, but I'm really struggling. I think it could be a very valuable tool to add to all the other analysis, but aaaahhhhh!




      Fair enough...     by the way, what tools have you used in your charting package to try to apply E/W??


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:
			
		

> Fair enough...     by the way, what tools have you used in your charting package to try to apply E/W??



I don't have any.    I just use the basic theory and massage it to the chart.


----------



## Magdoran

kennas said:
			
		

> Hi Mag, I'm good thanks!
> 
> How are you?
> 
> The above comments were really made in regard to particular people claiming 'this stock will go to 20 cents by Friday!!!' when it's sitting on 5 on Wednesday...
> 
> I must say I am a sceptic. It seems convenient for EW/time based practitioners to just use certain stock charts that do fit in to the theory but then ignore the rest. I would like to know what % of stocks actually do follow EW or cycles. I would hazzard a guess to say very few.
> 
> I would also like to compare ALL of Yogi's predictions to see what % actually make it? I hazzard a guess not many. I know Gann's a different game, and I'm not comparing it directly with wave theories, but I just raise that as another example of certain practitioners clinging on to the few examples that fit the profile and disregarding the multitute.
> 
> I'm still trying to fit the XAO into an EW count and it's impossible. This to me would tend to suggest that as the XAO is a summary of many stocks, and it can't fit, then it doesn't work.
> 
> So, I'm sticking to probabilities on basic charting for the minute. Until I see the light!



Hello kennas,


Hey, I’m great thanks.  Still waiting to see if there is a Melbourne get together mark II, but hopefully you won’t be left high and dry this time!

Ok, I can see you’re a sceptic, and I recognise this, because so am I.  But I spent years researching this stuff and found people who know a lot about it.  In fact I had a couple of study groups for a few years which really helped.

Sure, any market analysis is necessarily flawed, and as Mark Douglas says “anything can happen”, and “every moment in the market is unique”.

Check out the demonstration in the “Improving chart analysis” thread on Brent and light crude for an example of how this time cycle approach can work.  This is actually a Gann based time cycle approach, but I certainly pay a lot of attention to wave structure as an element in the mix, but it is pattern that is paramount.

As for EW – what kind of study have you done?  wavepicker is probably the most knowledgeable and advanced EW player I know, and the process is quite involved, and takes years to master (as does the Gann method).  The EW style is actually very effective but in the right circumstances.  Sometimes it is irrelevant or just not applicable – same for time cycles.  The art is in knowing how to use these to trade.  Prechter and Frost’s work is about the best I’ve seen.

Just because you can’t see the patterns and understand them, doesn’t mean they aren’t there.  And sure, many apparent patterns will not work out…  But the concept is to deal in probabilities and pattern recognition just like any good T/A is all about. 

Go and have a look at wavepicker’s forecast, and see if you agree that it’s pretty close to what happened.  Forecasting is an art.  Of course the practitioner will get it wrong sometimes, and should set criteria in place to identify when this happens invalidating the pattern, and take the appropriate action.  But when these are right, do the math.  Imagine having a forecast well in advance and being able to trade it successfully.  Imagine trading that with leverage, and you’ll get the idea of the possibilities.

Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wavepicker

Hello Kennas,




> I must say I am a sceptic. It seems convenient for EW/time based practitioners to just use certain stock charts that do fit in to the theory but then ignore the rest. I would like to know what % of stocks actually do follow EW or cycles. I would hazzard a guess to say very few.




Kennas the Elliott Wave Principle is used most effectively with the most liquid markets/ stocks. Those illiquid penny dreadfalls can be a handfull to trade using any TA system. Of the liquid markets/stocks, as far as I am concerned they all follow the EWP. It's up to you to recognize the wavestructure, patterns, and probabilities of alternate counts within that instrument. The EWP in this aspect is unique in that it gives rules and guidelines to follow, making it one of the most objective of all methods.  This is where most unsuccesfull practitioners fail. As with most systems, it's the lack of discipline to follow it that kills them.




> I'm still trying to fit the XAO into an EW count and it's impossible. This to me would tend to suggest that as the XAO is a summary of many stocks, and it can't fit, then it doesn't work.




To the contrary, the XAO has a beautifully structured long term wave pattern, they don't get much better than this. The fact that it is a combination of many stocks and thus an excellent  representation of social mood. I had some EW charts from 2-3 weeks ago, but I was unable to upload them due to file size limits. I emailed them to Swingstar, Mag, and Richkid.

As Mag has said, whether it be Gann, Elliott, cycles analysis etc, they all take years to master. I would suggest looking at realtime prices in a fast moving markets to look at specific patterns to speed up learning if you are interested in this sort of approach. 

As for Gold, it has been tracking pretty well to the EW count made back in June. That was a long time ago, I am not sure whether it will continue to do so. But I will stick to this pattern until it becomes invalidated. At the moment it has not.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Hello Kennas,
> 
> Kennas the Elliott Wave Principle is used most effectively with the most liquid markets/ stocks. Those illiquid penny dreadfalls can be a handfull to trade using any TA system. Of the liquid markets/stocks, as far as I am concerned they all follow the EWP. It's up to you to recognize the wavestructure, patterns, and probabilities of alternate counts within that instrument. The EWP in this aspect is unique in that it gives rules and guidelines to follow, making it one of the most objective of all methods.  This is where most unsuccesfull practitioners fail. As with most systems, it's the lack of discipline to follow it that kills them.
> 
> To the contrary, the XAO has a beautifully structured long term wave pattern, they don't get much better than this. The fact that it is a combination of many stocks and thus an excellent  representation of social mood. I had some EW charts from 2-3 weeks ago, but I was unable to upload them due to file size limits. I emailed them to Swingstar, Mag, and Richkid.
> 
> As Mag has said, whether it be Gann, Elliott, cycles analysis etc, they all take years to master. I would suggest looking at realtime prices in a fast moving markets to look at specific patterns to speed up learning if you are interested in this sort of approach.
> 
> As for Gold, it has been tracking pretty well to the EW count made back in June. That was a long time ago, I am not sure whether it will continue to do so. But I will stick to this pattern until it becomes invalidated. At the moment it has not.
> 
> Cheers



Thanks WP, I haven't given up. I'm determined to master as many trading techniques as possible. I have a least 30 years left to do that I think.   Hopefully I find something that works best for me soon and I can make it work. Thanks for the feedback. Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

Gold slipping under $620 again overnight, probably due to good inflation number out of the US and I think the $US is up a bit. While inflation is contained and $US keeps holding up I think gold is going to continue to track sideways and down. This can not happen for ever though. US is still structurally weak under mountains of debt which is unsustainable. The international markets already know this, they just need an excuse to start dumping $US and buying other currencies including gold as a hedge and safety net.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:
			
		

> Gold slipping under $620 again overnight, probably due to good inflation number out of the US and I think the $US is up a bit. While inflation is contained and $US keeps holding up I think gold is going to continue to track sideways and down. This can not happen for ever though. US is still structurally weak under mountains of debt which is unsustainable. The international markets already know this, they just need an excuse to start dumping $US and buying other currencies including gold as a hedge and safety net.




Agree with your comments kennas, only prob is that could be as long as a year before this starts to happen. 

Looking at the POG from a positive side however, if it does go lower to say $490 or even slightly under, then think of the buying opportunity assuming the bull was to continue.

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man

kennas said:
			
		

> This can not happen for ever though. US is still structurally weak under mountains of debt which is unsustainable. The international markets already know this, they just need an excuse to start dumping $US and buying other currencies including gold as a hedge and safety net



I agree, well said.

cheers


----------



## Kauri

I have plotted out the two possible ways that I see gold going in the short/medium term by applying E/W theory the way I see and understand it. Do any Ellioticians (sorry Rich   ) see it this way or are able to show me where I've gone astray. Much Appreciated
          Thanks...


----------



## ducati916

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Not asking you to buy gold as I am happy to do that.
> But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?
> 
> Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -
> 
> 
> And one of your multitude of sweeping conclusions:
> 
> In the light of the fact that gold has breached your preferred upper range of $720 I think it only fair to give you another opportunity to prove yourself.  On the other hand, I will concede utter defeat if gold’s “parabola” collapses and by year’s end POG is trading under $800 (which I believe is generous in that my expectation was for gold to be near that level by year’s end, rather than be as “support”).
> 
> For the moment, I am hoping for another $50 or greater retrace in gold near term, but will not hold my breath: Corrections in the metals complex as a whole are running to about 3 days instead of 3 weeks or more.
> 
> Wayne
> I will put you into ducati’s camp.  Do you recall an earlier post where you mooted a $500 correction and I replied:
> 
> 
> 
> My concluding remark for now is that playing the markets means taking a forward view, and that view can be based on your decision to trade a safe “yield” equity, or a highly speculative futures contract. You enter the trade with a “view”, never a “knowledge”.  Posting that “view” can mean a loss or gain of “reputation”, but in the case of ducati, he has my respect for at least trying to work out gold: A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.




Well we are currently half-way through November, and drawing close to years end and gold is still a fair way from $800oz, in fact, it's a fair distance from $700oz.

jog on
d998


----------



## chicken

read what is said on www. thebulliondesk.com  what the expert are saying...its ALL good news for GOLD buffs.....US$$ are in decline....and with Russia and China going for Gold....sounds like the olympic games....US $  is going down.....read it for yourself......


----------



## GreatPig

Would that be the experts who went to the same school as this one?



> *"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."* - Dr. Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, one of the most important US economists of his day, speaking on October 17, 1929, a few weeks before the Great Crash.



GP


----------



## ducati916

chicken said:
			
		

> read what is said on www. thebulliondesk.com  what the expert are saying...its ALL good news for GOLD buffs.....US$$ are in decline....and with Russia and China going for Gold....sounds like the olympic games....US $  is going down.....read it for yourself......




Most foreign governments have a large stake in maintaining the US trade deficit, and thus, a strong dollar. Thus Central banks keep accumulating dollars.

The practice of buying dollars for this purpose is reinforced by a further very important consideration, and that is the ever increasing needs of the worlds markets to transact in a single currency.

That currency is the US$.
Once a currency achieves this status, it is very difficult to unseat the King.
Currently, the US$ accounts for 88.7% of all transactions. This drives the requirement for an ever expanding supply of dollars [read increased demand] thus maintaining the dollar strength.

Thus in this context, what does that say about Gold?

jog on
d998


----------



## Spot

Commercials seem to be adding to their SHORTS


----------



## Spot

Present UP move without support ?
two dn weeks on low vol ?
weekly chart


----------



## Kauri

Spot said:
			
		

> Present UP move without support ?
> two dn weeks on low vol ?
> weekly chart




   Spot, am I missing something here, that chart looks like the May 2004 chart??


----------



## Spot

Sorry !

Here's the correct Chart 

IMHO
Still the same picture -- UP move without support 
This weeks DN with low Vol may be very S/T bullish


----------



## Spot

Just a alternative indicator

Theory being POG is a Liquidity Indicator , hence leads the banking sector .

POG can track GS - NY for a considible period of time

If the EW counts are right then GS will hit a high of around $190 , then commence a  A,B,C decline 

The attached charts show that this may be in the making now


----------



## ducati916

A Hedge Fund managers perspective;



> The illusion of a liquidity fest is juicing the market, but the more likely reality is that we've got a derivatives/credit/lending mania in full force. How can you protect yourself? Think gold.
> 
> By Bill Fleckenstein
> The only thing better than good news these days is bad news. Twisted logic, but it's the unmistakable mindset on Wall Street, as last Tuesday's action demonstrates.
> 
> Never mind Home Depot's (HD, news, msgs) quarter, which was much worse than expected, or the lowered guidance from both Home Depot and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs). It was an up day for the shares of those two companies, whose $450 billion in sales together constitute just shy of 5% of our nation's gross domestic product.
> 
> Bulls ignoring bellwethers
> Tuesday proved to be a fine day for the market overall, as folks digested as "good" a comment by St. Louis Fed chief William Poole -- which was that the housing market, that fabled engine of our economy, may worsen yet. In any case, this kind of action is the hallmark of markets that want to go up. Although, in this case, it's quite possibly a sign of the complete drunkenness that's seen in the late stages of market advances, i.e., tops.
> 
> As someone who continually tries to make sense of all the motion -- some of which may be noise, but one never knows -- I was thus fortunate to discuss the current environment with Marc Faber, the editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, over dinner last week.
> 
> He kept coming back to the same point, which may explain why our equity market levitates in the face of deteriorating fundamentals: Essentially, the money is "no good." We print it at the speed of light and the drop of a hat.
> 
> Liquidity: Not the mother's milk of a mania
> Part of me thinks that the current mini-mania in equities is a response to Fed-induced liquidity. And yet, when I discuss with my good friend Jim Grant what the big central banks of the world are doing -- Japan's, the United States' and Europe's -- he suggests that they really aren't spewing out liquidity as aggressively as people think. Of course, if they were, one might expect commodities to be on more of a run than they have been. To me, they seem to be suggesting that the world economy is slowing down at the margin.
> 
> Therefore, I've concluded that what we may have is the illusion of a liquidity fest. The stock market is acting as though there's an enormous fire hose of liquidity gushing forth -- when, what might actually be the case, is that a wanton derivatives/credit/lending mania is in full force.
> 
> Markets in motion may stay in motion. If, however, the source of the propulsion is mispriced and badly structured credit, things can come to a sudden stop. But if that were to occur, the Fed at some point would ride to the rescue with plenty of liquidity. That is Marc's point and is, of course, the point of my pet saying that in a social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation.
> 
> Metallic immunity to central-bank meddling
> In terms of what conclusions Marc comes to: The easiest way to protect oneself from this money printing is to own gold. No matter how you examine the milieu, it seems that all roads lead back to gold.
> 
> Marc is convinced that gold and silver will go dramatically higher in the next few years. He expects that when the world's central banks are forced into a real print-athon, gold will truly explode. And the more they drive up the financial markets via their efforts -- that is, if they can drive up the financial markets -- the faster gold will go up. In other words, he believes the bear market in stocks, relative to gold, will continue and that it will accelerate the more that authorities attempt to fight it.
> 
> Mighty aches from little manias grow
> Back to our stock market, I believe that it's in the throes of a manic blow-off, rather than signaling the start of some long, sustainable trend, as in 1991 and 1995. This has been my view for a while, though so far, it has proved incorrect, and that may continue to be the case for a bit longer.
> 
> Nevertheless, when I look at the environment, it quite frankly scares me because all I can see is a disastrous ending to this party. (Though I've reduced my short exposure, I can't bring myself to take it too low, due to the feelings I just described.)
> 
> As to what will bring about the demise, I suspect it will be sheer exhaustion, but it could be any number of events. As to when the party might end, there's no way of gauging that. Nor is there any way of gauging, when a market gets this out of control, how high is too high.
> 
> But the important takeaway point: If the environment is as I suggest, it can end quickly and violently. Those who are tempted to participate are likely to be hurt. That's my best attempt to make sense of what's going on and what it may lead to.




jog on
d998


----------



## Spot

d998


Have been stewing over the same type of view.

Come up with holding the physical in it's various forms only.

If one of the main reasons for holding gold is inflation, then surely any margin the miners make is going to be wiped out by rising costs (juniors excepted)

The time to be getting into the major/mid cap miners is probably over and time to start accumalating the physical on major dips is here.


----------



## Sean K

Gold rises on eroding dollar

_MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 
SINGAPORE: Gold rose for the second day amid speculation that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates further, eroding the value of the dollar and boosting the bullion's appeal as an alternative investment.

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 3.08 dollar to 624.78 dollar an ounce while Gold futures for December delivery rose 1.80 dollar to 624.30 dollar an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange in after-hours electronic trading.

A housing slump in the US may discourage the Fed from changing its overnight lending rate, after two years of increases to 5.25 per cent, according to analysts survey. _

Holding above $620 still. I'm still on the fence which way it's going short term. Wating for that magic break through $640 which will be the start of the bext bull IMO.


----------



## wayneL

Spot said:
			
		

> Come up with holding the *physical in it's various forms* only



Do you mean the stuff that jingles in your pockets or one of the various proxies, e.g. ETFs?


----------



## ducati916

Spot said:
			
		

> d998
> 
> 
> Have been stewing over the same type of view.
> 
> Come up with holding the physical in it's various forms only
> 
> If one of the main reasons for holding gold is inflation, then surely any margin the miners make is going to be wiped out by rising costs (juniors excepted)
> 
> The time to be getting into the major/mid cap miners is probably over and time to start accumalating the physical on major dips is here.




I only posted the article.
I actually disagree with many of his assertions & conclusions.

From my blog............
http://grantmacdonald.blog.co.nz/

The point that I have not previously mentioned is;



> A second point, *"social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation." * is quite true, and of course dates back to the mid-1940's where structural reforms were enacted to expressly limit, or prevent, episides of unemployment and deflation seen in the 1930's, viz. The Employment Act of 1946, and later The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 were passed into Law.
> 
> Inflation, and the threat of inflation are therefore at the front of many investors thinking when looking at asset allocation. Gold it has been argued is a hedge against inflation, and by default, a depreciating currency. Inflation however would be more accurately defined as a reduction in purchasing power, and while that certainly includes a depreciating currency, this can in an environment of increasing productivity be misleading.
> 
> Therefore, the question still not answered, is Gold, a worthwhile investment, and at what price?




jog on
d998


----------



## Spot

wayneL said:
			
		

> Do you mean the stuff that jingles in your pockets or one of the various proxies, e.g. ETFs?




ALL -- you can buy/sell @ London Fix with Sydney dealers, who will store it for you for  a small fee.

ASX -- GOLD is a ETF with $au pricing.

BUT the catch 22 imho is if POG does skyrocket, how will this effect the $au?

If the $au rose with it we could end up in the same situation as SA was in ie:
POG rising in $US values BUT Falling in $AU values.


----------



## Spot

d998

Was under the impression "inflation" is always caused by a increase in "money supply" -- overall rising prices are a reflection of this -- not the cause.

Of course there can be rising prices in selected areas due to demand/supply but this should be short term and balance out in other areas.

As the piece you posted pointed out - is money supply  drying up? - you can check out the US M2 @ St. Louis. Fed and going by the data it has been in decline.

Hence the reason I stated I will only be buying Gold on any major declines and no miners.


----------



## ducati916

Spot said:
			
		

> d998
> 
> Was under the impression "inflation" is always caused by a increase in "money supply" -- overall rising prices are a reflection of this -- not the cause.
> 
> Of course there can be rising prices in selected areas due to demand/supply but this should be short term and balance out in other areas.
> 
> As the piece you posted pointed out - is money supply  drying up? - you can check out the US M2 @ St. Louis. Fed and going by the data it has been in decline.
> 
> Hence the reason I stated I will only be buying Gold on any major declines and no miners.




*Spot*

With regard to M3/M2 measures, you are correct that it is in decline.
This is of course due to the Fed selling securities, thus increasing the Yield, and removing liquidity from Reserve Banks.

Inflation is better defined as;
*A reduction in purchasing power*

From that definition, a much more comprehensive discussion on inflation can be facilitated.

jog on
d998


----------



## Spot

d998

If  I can not use the info to trade with, it's immaterial.


By using:   M2 -- notes -- 30/5y yield.
U have relatively uncorrupted  leading data.

If I presume that inflation is price based:
Then I'm stuck with adjusted lagging data.

Even if the price data is correct, by the time I know about it the bird has flown.


----------



## Kauri

Interesting to see if this little abc plays out, 606 would be a good spot if it does.


----------



## Sean K

I think the fact it's tested $620 several times now and rebounded that it might climb higher from here. Not convinced, but more than a 50% er for me.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> I think the fact it's tested $620 several times now and rebounded that it might climb higher from here. Not convinced, but more than a 50% er for me.




   Hi kennas
                Is that on the kitco C charts?? On the spot OHLC charts I use 620 doesn't really show up. My bias is that AU is on the way up also,I am looking for confirmation and an entry opportunity if and when it happens.


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:
			
		

> Hi kennas
> Is that on the kitco C charts?? On the spot OHLC charts I use 620 doesn't really show up. My bias is that AU is on the way up also,I am looking for confirmation and an entry opportunity if and when it happens.



Yeah, Kitco. I'm just doing it in $US. Probably should be doing in AUD also.....


----------



## Sean K

Daily gold update:

I'm feeling more bullish today. Probably 60% on the bull indicator for gold to start new uptrend. Once again, gold tested $620 and went through $630 overnight, finishing in the high $620s. To spend this time consolidating above a key resistance level is very good imo.

My gold bull indicator is something like this atm:

$620 50% chance of renewing long term up trend.
$625 55%
$630 60%
$635 65%
$640 70%

I don't think I could give a rating higher than 70% chance for gold to continue going up, too many variables. 

Under $620 then the odds of gold continuing sideways greatly increase. Under $600 and it's down. 

I wonder if all this consideration is pointless???


----------



## nizar

kennas said:
			
		

> I wonder if all this consideration is pointless???




I gave up trying to predict moves in gold a long time ago, especially short term ones. Long term i still think up. WHen it starts running, no1 knows.

At the latest, gold i suspect will run next year when the FED cuts rates. That means no more support for the USD, and gold should run.

I figured im just gonna wait until gold runs. When the May high is broken, ill consider getting some goldies. After all, its its gonna to the $000's, then we have plenty of time to get set.


----------



## Sean K

nizar said:
			
		

> I gave up trying to predict moves in gold a long time ago, especially short term ones. Long term i still think up. WHen it starts running, no1 knows.
> 
> At the latest, gold i suspect will run next year when the FED cuts rates. That means no more support for the USD, and gold should run.
> 
> I figured im just gonna wait until gold runs. When the May high is broken, ill consider getting some goldies. After all, its its gonna to the $000's, then we have plenty of time to get set.



Yeah, I think there is time and it's important to be set, in order to load up Chicken's truck. I want to try and get in early though. I probably still have too much gold in the portfolio atm but like you I'm long term bull and am prepared for some short term pain for the long term gain.

Goldies I'm holding atm:
(note: some have sig copper, silver and maybe uranium, but should still be supported by gold appreciation)

AGS
AVO
BSG
CTO 
GCR
IRN
KMN
LHG
NCM
PSV

Looking for an entry into: BDG, SGX, OGD, NEM, 
Maybe EMP, AGC, 

Will certainly be topping up on any great weakness.


----------



## Sean K

*Time To Buy Gold, Gartman Says*
FN Arena News - November 23 2006

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Time to buy gold? US-based trading guru Dennis Gartman certainly thinks so. In his latest update of daily The Gartman Letter, Dennis highlights the small overnight rise in the spot bullion price was sufficient to push gold outside its "well defined consolidation pattern".

A bullish technical signal in combination with bullish fundamental signals make for a clear trading opportunity, Gartman suggests. He flags he will be adding to his already long position in the market.

Among the bullish signals mentioned in The Gartman Letter is a very strong demand from India as the marriage season begins in earnest. Gartman cites the World Gold Council reporting Indian jewellery demand in the third quarter was up 11.9% from a year ago. India 's gold imports were up 123% from a year ago in October, he adds.

Also, he believes the central banks are currently supporting the bullish picture as they have been selling more gold than usual recently and it has had a negligible impact on the spot price in the open market. In the past two weeks, three European central banks havesold 18.13 tonnes of gold, Gartman reports, adding that in order to meet the 400 tonnes allotted under the Washington Agreement, they normally only need to sell approximately 7.7 tonnes per week.

Gartman: "Normally, one might suggest that such sales would be depressive of gold, but instead, gold has taken these sales rather well, and has moved higher. We are reasonably impressed, and remain long of gold as a result."


----------



## Dr Doom

Yes. I agree with the last few posters with the long term direction of gold, the only way is up if only for the constant creation of excess liquidity. Just look at all the M&A activity going on - too much money sloshing around. This usually a sign that the markets have gone from the 'irrational' stage to the 'manic' stage ie buy at any cost or the (borrowed, carry traded, etc) money will burn a hole in your pocket.

As an observation of what some may call manipulation in the pog, if you look at the Kitco chart above closely you'll see a similar pattern when trading starts in the US - up until the start of US trade the pog is generally rising. US trade starts and any attempt to go higher is slowly but surely beaten back down.
How long can the lid be kept on the boiling pot?. I think it may be a matter of weeks, not months. If there was any so called link between gold and oil then it is fairly well being broken over the last few trading sessions. Another positive.

Also good to see someone nominate a list of stocks that they are holding.
I've got a few of them too. Anyone know of some promising penny dreadfuls?. The way BDG's going it might end up one   . I am still holding in there though, a true believer, though my bank balance is poorer for it. When to top up?. Must be getting close?.


----------



## fleathedog

From Bloomberg:



> Gold Rises for Second Day as Dollar Slump Boosts Metal's Appeal
> 
> By Christopher Donville
> 
> Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose for a second day as a slumping dollar boosted the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.
> 
> Gold, sold in dollars, generally moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency, which dropped today to a five- month low against the euro. The dollar fell on speculation the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates as the economy cools. Gold is up 21 percent this year, while the dollar has fallen 7.2 percent against six major currencies.


----------



## Sean K

$US looking shakey if it falls below $0.84 by that chart. Good.


----------



## Sean K

3 day Kitko chart again. 

Has steadily risen the past 3 days after quite a bit of consolidation. Looks ripe to push though $630 tonight, with $US looking suspect. 

Of course, anything can, and will, happen overnight in the US. But, it's just looking positive for gold to me right now, after a wine or two.


----------



## wayneL

With the slap down of the USD and lack of proportionate reaction to the upside on gold, has made me a bit bearish on the yellow metal. 

I traded the move and it fizzled out badly.

Here is the blurb from my futures broker:



> Bears stand their ground!  Gold and Silver prices ended little changed from yesterday, after tests of weekly highs were made in today's session.  December Gold closed up 30 cents at $629, off a range of $627 to $635, low to high.  Gold rallied along with the Euro versus the US Dollar early in the session, but Gold was unable to hold on to the gains, despite the Euro remaining firm into the New York dealing close.  The bears rejected prices above $630 today, which suggests that Gold is not ready to break out of its trading range of $615 to $635.  Momentum on the daily charts is sideways/down, as it has been since 11/13, but December futures have been unable to break down and close below critical support levels of $620, $610, and $600.  Resistance remains at $630 and $637 respectively.  Gold is likely to remain within the bounds of the well-worn trading range of the past few weeks.




A crashing USD will drag gold up, kicking and screaming, but how does it look in OZ pesos? Anyone have a chart in Gold in AUD?


----------



## Kauri

Thanksgiving in the USA, long weekend?? Does that affect it at all??


----------



## ducati916

*enzo*

Direct comparison;

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL

Tks Duc.


----------



## coyotte

ASX-GOLD

1/10th oz = 1 share 

As long as we don't end up like S/A miners did a few years ago, with a rising Oz dollar -- POG imho is lack of faith in the LOCAL currency  not a foreign one.


----------



## chops_a_must

I heard a rumour this morning about the IMF selling off its gold reserves. They have the third largest stock pile in the world. Could rattle a few cages if they do.

They have threatened to do this before but I don't anything has ever come of it.


----------



## chops_a_must

Here we are actually:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11/22/bloomberg/bxgold.php


----------



## fleathedog

On the proposed IMF sales:



> The IMF finance department in February recommended selling 11 million ounces of gold, or about 11 percent of its stockpile.




According to world gold council stats, there was 8.2m ounces of demand in 2005, so one can imagine what 11m coming onto the market in a rush would do.

The US is opposed to it so far, and if they did sell, it would be done over several years. But definately a big overhang if they go ahead... 

Maybe they could sell it to the Chinese. Get their much talked about diversification done in one fell swoop without disrupting the market.


----------



## coyotte

GOLD = $AU / 10


----------



## coyotte

" C " Truncated ???


----------



## Sean K

fleathedog said:
			
		

> On the proposed IMF sales:
> 
> According to world gold council stats, there was 8.2m ounces of demand in 2005, so one can imagine what 11m coming onto the market in a rush would do.
> 
> The US is opposed to it so far, and if they did sell, it would be done over several years. But definately a big overhang if they go ahead...
> 
> Maybe they could sell it to the Chinese. Get their much talked about diversification done in one fell swoop without disrupting the market.




Flea, what's the date and source of this info? Thanks.


----------



## fleathedog

The link to the article is here:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11...berg/bxgold.php

And for the stats go the world gold council website and under the stats page it's just under 'end user demand'.


----------



## Dr Doom

Heres another view of the Aus gold market by the recently revived Gold index XGD. Golds stocks leading before the gold price again??


----------



## Kauri

Well, I'm very close to getting another potential _long_ entry on gold, but with my estimated target my RR doesn't stack up. so will watch and if a Wii develops and is shallow enough I may be able to enter there.


----------



## wayneL

Hmmm the USD is getting absolutely slaughtered, lifting gold.

I was pontificating on whether to take both trades (long gold, short DX) Ended up taking gold and not shorting the dollar. 

The DX would have been the better trade but gold is working anyway as a result.


----------



## vert

yes yes yes, the usd is getting spanked, just came home from dinner and wow check this out. (sorry for the excitement im quite new to this). thanks wayne for the usd index code, have been trying to find a live chart and here it has been the whole time on sonray the platform i use. 
gold is currently above the high earlier this month of 636.35, next resistance is high of 640.34 in early september, i think when the us open it will be on and a new short term high will be made.

cheers wayne (aka vert)
ps your location "wind"ina,do you kite by any chance?


----------



## wayneL

vert said:
			
		

> yes yes yes, the usd is getting spanked, just came home from dinner and wow check this out. (sorry for the excitement im quite new to this). thanks wayne for the usd index code, have been trying to find a live chart and here it has been the whole time on sonray the platform i use.
> gold is currently above the high earlier this month of 636.35, next resistance is high of 640.34 in early september, i think when the us open it will be on and a new short term high will be made.
> 
> cheers wayne (aka vert)
> ps your location "wind"ina,do you kite by any chance?



I'm a bit broken down for that sort of stuff. but would definately be in it if I could.

Re the dollar code: It will change when the Dec contract expires to DX H7

Here is the contract specs: http://www.nybot.com/marketInfo/contractSpecs/showIndividualContractSpecs.asp?productGroupID=29

Cheers


----------



## vert

thanks wayne, good to get more info. im only trading in stocks at the moment but definately something i will look at doing later on when i get more experience under the belt. i just like checking out the charts for indications where stocks are headed as i follow mining and exploration. 
silver has broken short term high of 13.21 currently 13.42, i hold bsg, looking forward to next week.

if you keen to have a go on a kite let us know.


----------



## Nick Radge

*BOTTOM LINE 
23/11:*
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a
*9/11:*
EW Trend: ?
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a 

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS 
23/11:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 44 secs)
I'm going to recommend Gold as a BUY if prices push through $635.0 (basis Dec contract). That may not occur immediately and the entry trigger may be adjusted accordingly. I say this because last night's session showed some seller interest and in turn we may see this sideways zone turn into a triangle before moving higher. No harm done so long as $604.0 remains intact. Those that do trade futures, then a protective stop should be placed below $614.50. Gold stocks or warrants may offer an alternative, but selecting the better correlated instrument will be the difference between profit and loss here. The upside target zone is $670 to $680. With the seller interest showing and the Thanksgiving holiday, we may see some further sideways action before prices start higher. 
9/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 30 secs)
The small gap mentioned in the last review was filled and was followed by a high close for that session. A very bullish sign and one that did in fact follow through, at least for a week or so. The $615.20 level was subsequently broken. This level should now provide support but the more important level for me is back at $604.00. If this is seen again then perhaps Gold will move lower to test the recent lows. The prior session shows that sellers had entered the market - high volume, a tight range and a close near the lows - is the signal of sellers entering. Gold will not be able to move higher until these sellers have been removed. My focus is on $604.00 and I'd be hesitant to do anything until the seller situation has been resolved one way or other.

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION 
23/11:*
Be on the alert for a triangular shaped wave-iv here simply because of last nights selling and the holiday. We may see a drift and therefore a triangle. Nonetheless I'm still looking for upside advances to complete the wave-5 unless of course we decline below $604.0. The 161.8x wave-i targets $671.0 and the 61.8x wave-iii targets $682.0. I like the look of Gold for the next month or so, as long as the level $604.0 remains in place. 
*9/11:*
We have seen a clear 5-wave pattern down followed by what is currently a 3-wave advance. This latest advance may turn into a 5-wave structure but in order for that bullish scenario to remain valid we must have $604.00 hold its ground. Any break thereof places Gold back into a bearish state. These sellers aligned with the Democrats win has me a little concerned for an ongoing bullish argument. An interesting fact coinciding with last nights weakness, or in fact creating last nights weakness is the history of the Democrats. In the last 48 years of Democrat control of the Government, the Purchasing Power of the US dollar has declined by some 88% compared to 67% under a Republican Government. Anything that directly impacts the US dollar at present will be placed under the spotlight for serious consideration and if this is the case now then Gold will also be under close scrutiny by investors. Was last night the sign of things to come? Most people will view a declining dollar as inflationary, however, if that is combined with declining asset prices, we then have deflationary situation. On another side note, the stock markets perform dramatically better under a Democratic Government than under Republicans.




_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


----------



## Sean K

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> I'm going to recommend Gold as a BUY if prices push through $635.0 (basis Dec contract).



Thanks Nick, I'm glad my rudamentary, amateur TA almost agrees with you. I set my new gold uptrend simply based on a break through the last high at $640 and not much else.

With the dust settled after the US midterms, $US has been sold off, resulting in golds appreciation.

I get the impression that the EW count has been altered recently to reflect the likelihood of gold up trend........


----------



## BSD

Prospect of USD weakness in light of imminent rate cut

Gold going up


----------



## Sean K

BSD said:
			
		

> Prospect of USD weakness in light of imminent rate cut
> 
> Gold going up



Oil also heading back too, to support Au.

I've been slowly adding to my gold holdings the past few weeks expecting this, but I'm not overcommitting. Still waiting for push through $640. Have a perception that there are more and more bullish gold reports coming out in past 2 weeks, but may be my golden eye....If $US and oil both react to support gold (down and up) then gold could gain significant momentum and the speculators will be jumping back in.


----------



## bvbfan

Worth noting that COMEX was closed Friday and only the new CBOT electronic contract traded on Friday in the US 
Big shift as comex has always been the standard there.


----------



## nizar

BSD said:
			
		

> Prospect of USD weakness in light of imminent rate cut
> 
> Gold going up




Imminent rate cut?
I think not.

I would expect US reports this week to show high inflation due to rising oil prices, interest rate fears creeping in, i mean, they have to somehow manipulate the data to show this even if its not correct.

If the yanks dont increase interest rates, they need to, this week at least talk up the prospects as such speculation may be enough to support the dollar.

If not, then the USD will tank (nothing will make this happen quicker than a aret cut), taking with it US equity markets, and consequently, i dont think our markets will be spared.


----------



## Sean K

Gold steadily climbing, which is a nice change from the choppy last 6 months, now looking more and more positive. NR states a buy on gold over $635, and it's breaking that now. I do not believe that this is technically the right level to be absolute confident in an uptrend, but maybe we are close. Being a long term gold bull I am a little biased so MYOMU. And DYOR, blah blah blah. 

Another day, another steady climb.....

Break through $640 imminent and time to top up on some positions.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:
			
		

> Daily gold update:
> 
> I'm feeling more bullish today. Probably 60% on the bull indicator for gold to start new uptrend. Once again, gold tested $620 and went through $630 overnight, finishing in the high $620s. To spend this time consolidating above a key resistance level is very good imo.
> 
> My gold bull indicator is something like this atm:
> 
> $620 50% chance of renewing long term up trend.
> $625 55%
> $630 60%
> $635 65%
> $640 70%
> 
> I don't think I could give a rating higher than 70% chance for gold to continue going up, too many variables.
> 
> Under $620 then the odds of gold continuing sideways greatly increase. Under $600 and it's down.




Gold broken $640 putting the _kennas gold bull indicator _ at 70%, but it needs to hold. I think the rise was a bit rapid for my liking and it's likely to pull back a fraction.


----------



## Kauri

$640 area has been a bit of a hurdle for the past 6 months..  :1zhelp:


----------



## markrmau

Sorry to rain on the gold parade (and I am heavily long gold stocks), but I think this is a false break. The SP500 has been powering along and I think for now, investors will stick with US stocks and the US dollar.

Soon.....but not just yet (the USD will be crunched).


----------



## Sean K

markrmau said:
			
		

> Sorry to rain on the gold parade (and I am heavily long gold stocks), but I think this is a false break. The SP500 has been powering along and I think for now, investors will stick with US stocks and the US dollar.
> 
> Soon.....but not just yet (the USD will be crunched).




On the _kennas gold bull indicator_ it's a 70% chance of $US crunch.


----------



## Sean K

$US at 20 month low against the Euro. $AUD heading towards $0.80. Oil up. Without any new geopolitical turmoil, gold hanging at around $640......US stocks smashed over night on weak results, lower spending. Housing market just about to pop. Safe place for cash: gold or under the mattress. 

Gold still at 70% to resume the bull.


----------



## Sean K

*A Pause For Gold And Some Hope For Oil*
FN Arena News - November 28 2006

All crude oil needs is one or two daily closing prices above US$60 per barrel to trigger the market turning optimistic again, technical chartists at Barclays Capital argue in their latest update on the market. Problem is, however, this hasn't happened thus far.

There's good news as well with the chartists sticking to their view that downside risks should remain limited from here on. They see their view supported by the fact that "price action is now at its largest discount to the 200-day average since 1986" (see chart).

The chartists also foresee that gold will now pause for a while following its strong run up recently. Daily momentum oscillators are pushing back into overbought territory, they report.

The chartists remain of the view that weekly patterns/Elliott wave counts suggest there are still higher highs to come for gold. Barclays expects the choppy ranges to give way to the topside later this year/into next year.


----------



## Sean K

Gold holding above Nick Radges buy recommendation price above $635, but just under my key breakout level of $640, therefore I'm back on the fence about whether this is the start of new uptrend. (about 68% on the kennas gold bull indicator) 

I don't think the Europeans are very happy about the Euro strength and will be trying to bring the $US back up a notch which will be a negative on gold. 

One thing that has not been driving this recent gold push is negative geopolitics which has the potential, when combined with the $US weakness to really give gold a push. But, if both sort themselves out, then POG might slide back...


----------



## CanOz

Is that enough breakout for you Kennas?


----------



## scsl

Wow! It's currently at $644.70.


----------



## Magdoran

scsl said:
			
		

> Wow! It's currently at $644.70.




Hmmm, could be a drive up - next time point for me is 15 Dec...  Pattern does look bullish currently...


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:
			
		

> Is that enough breakout for you Kennas?



 
It's well over the 70% _kennas gold bull indicator_ now. 

Happy to have been topping up a little on my goldies and adding here and there.  Probabilities now pointing to uptrend.


----------



## CanOz

Amazing open in NY, i wonder what caused the spike? News? US Dollar?

You think this will drive resource stocks today?


----------



## Young Gun

The golden bull has finally arived gold closed to end above $650 US oz ...
Im getting ready for the run.


----------



## lancer

gold spike due to weak us dollar and oil hike combined


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:
			
		

> Amazing open in NY, i wonder what caused the spike? News? US Dollar?
> 
> You think this will drive resource stocks today?



Probably see 2-4% on all the gold stocks if it holds up in Asia. You'd expect it to go limit up. That is, unless this has been factored in with the recent gains in goldies. Some have had a great run. Great!    So, maybe after the initial drive this morning profit takers will come in to subdue?


----------



## CanOz

Aussie dollar put on .7% against the greenback...should be some money come into the market today, into gold, oil, nickel, zinc....also being the first of the month, should be a good session...._should be_.


----------



## Sean K

Gold looks to be heading to $650 now and on to $660. I think this will be a resistance point and it may stall a bit, possible consolidate, or even correct slightly, before maybe finishing at around $660 by end of year. Pending any 'unusual' events before the end of the year.

Geopolitical disaster - gold higher.
$US further weakness - higher.
Oil up - higher.
Natural disaster causing havock in US - higher.
Peace and love and stability in the world - lower. 
US economy sound, housing soft landing, interest rates steady - lower.


----------



## CanOz

EKENNAMICS... i love it.


----------



## CanOz

http://www.kitco.com/ind/charnock/nov242006.html


----------



## scsl

CanOz said:
			
		

> http://www.kitco.com/ind/charnock/nov242006.html



Thanks for the article! I've got a few questions about it...



> Mining stocks diverged from the final gold drop as expected and predicted, larger stocks in particular led the way *which is a copy book signal for an upward break out*.   They also confirmed by additionally rising further with gold once it began to rise again.



 Can someone please explain this and whether this 'copy book signal' has happened a lot?



> Interesting note how just a few prime gold assets over here are being “consumed” once they “trip over and skin their knee”.  I put it that way because for short-term reasons a company price may get trashed and the sellers come out of the woodwork in abundance, who is buying is what interests me for the medium to long-term.  *No other than J.P. Morgan just soaked up another $12M of this particular company which happens to have huge gold reserves and even more upside*… think about that one and draw your own conclusions.   They now own nearly $50M of this particular stock at a very depressed price and I don’t think they are about to reduce this excellent hedge against their global gold exposure.
> 
> On the same note, I could go on and on about this however I will spare you all… some of our smaller resource plays with monster resources have other local stellar names on their “substantial holder” lists, one I can think of is being dumped by impatient and or weak hands and yet one of our big banks just* increased their parcel by 9M shares to over 43M shares*.  These big institutions are “in the know” and do their homework; I have noted it over and over.  I am going to top up with more of this one at the first opportunity myself.



 Any idea which two companies relate to the above?


----------



## coyotte

A $USD bounce off that 80 support could upset the applecart --- probably confirm Wavepickers Chart ??

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

Gold scared of $650 and running away as the $US climbs back up, but it will probably short lived IMO. Should now find support around $620 ish, but hey, I'm an unemployed bum so what would I know.   


*After The Correction, Gold At US$700/oz*
FN Arena News - December 07 2006

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

It is OK to be bearish the US dollar as practically everybody in the market seems to be on one side of the fence again. Standard and Poor's believes a decline of 5% should be expected for the greenback in the year ahead as Asian central banks will be shifting some of their exposure into other assets and as US interest rates are expected to head lower from mid 2007 onwards.

According to ABN Amro, however, forecasting a weaker US dollar in the year ahead doesn't necessarily have to go hand in hand with expectations of falling US interest rates. ABN Amro maintains the Federal Reserve Bank will raise further towards the end of 2007. But the US dollar is going south nevertheless, the bank argues.

ABN Amro thinks this is likely to provide precious metals with an extra pair of wings next year which should see the likes of gold, silver and platinum perform much better than their industrial peers who should experience downward price pressure because of slowing economic growth.

The broker notes gold has even outperformed the euro throughout 2006. This is seen as further testament to the metal's revived role in the monetary system. Where other experts are calling for a top in the EUR/USD cross next year of up to 1.40, ABN Amro economists believe the dollar/euro could surge as high as 1.45 in 2007. Taking a current euro gold price of EUR485/oz on currency conversion alone this would imply a US$705/oz gold price, or further upside of circa 10%.

ABN Amro's current forecast is that gold bullion will average US$610/oz in 2006 and rise a further 11% to an average US$675/oz in 2007 and 2008. The equity broker does highlight this should be regarded a directional call only because should a US dollar rout eventuate nothing would stop gold from reaching higher.

With OPEC's intention of supporting a US$60-plus oil price and with the US dollar decline firmly on the oil cartel's agenda for next meeting, ABN Amro believes investors and gold enthusiasts should also keep an eye on oil for possible extra support.

Earlier this week, analysts at UBS said they expected the EUR/USD at 1.30 by year end and at 1.33 in three months. Apart from the obvious impact on precious metals and other commodities and assets priced in USD, UBS believes the direction of the US dollar is important for what it leads to in terms of investors' risk appetite.

Any scenario that sees the greenback weakening with little impact on broad risk markets will be generally positive for metals and US dollar denominated assets, the analysts believe.

UBS forecasts gold at US$660/oz by year end and at US$690/oz in three months. This implies the current correction is far from over yet. A point brought forward by market watcher Dennis Gartman as well. UBS expects gold to average US$700/oz in 2007.


----------



## CanOz

Been watching the POG all morning wondering if its going to bounce. HK always seems to follow the US though, you find?


----------



## Sean K

Yeah, usually, unless some key data comes out late or a speach or something. 

Ugly day for goldies today. Ouch. Had to come off at some point. It was a pretty quick run to $650, once it pierced $620.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:
			
		

> Yeah, usually, unless some key data comes out late or a speach or something.
> 
> Ugly day for goldies today. Ouch. Had to come off at some point. It was a pretty quick run to $650, once it pierced $620.




Expected target for this leg up was between $633-655 as stated in post # 814 (10th Nov) has been acheived (high was $649)

Would label this best as wave C of this contracting sideways move. The bearish wavecount has yet to be invalidated as a break above $676.5(last swing high)  has not occured(although in Silver it has been invalidated)

If this last leg up is an impulse then it should find support at approximately $615 and then continue upward. Otherwise a break below $600 would mean a target of $580-590 would give a support for the next upward rally (wave e) of the sideways contracting pattern. Thereafter a very strong move down maybe on the cards


Cheers


----------



## CanOz

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Expected target for this leg up was between $633-655 as stated in post # 814 (10th Nov) has been acheived (high was $649)
> 
> Would label this best as wave C of this contracting sideways move. The bearish wavecount has yet to be invalidated as a break above $676.5(last swing high)  has not occured(although in Silver it has been invalidated)
> 
> If this last leg up is an impulse then it should find support at approximately $615 and then continue upward. Otherwise a break below $600 would mean a target of $580-590 would give a support for the next upward rally (wave e) of the sideways contracting pattern. Thereafter a very strong move down maybe on the cards
> 
> 
> Cheers




Interesting analysis WP!


----------



## brerwallabi

Well, looks like the Iranians are ready to dump the dollar.

http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0612095743145955.htm

The Iranian move will be into the Euro, but there will be some buying of gold in Asia as the East and Middle East have different agendas.


----------



## Kauri

On the 4Hr chart I have it as a correction to an impulsive wave...


----------



## noirua

The following link from the UK is interesting as a view on the future gold price:

http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/ar...c=3hzvcw&cp_v=3311862&cp_id=259&cp_sub_id=128


----------



## coyotte

Couldn't bring up the previouse link

http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Share Tips&article_id=3802757


----------



## Sean K

coyotte said:
			
		

> Couldn't bring up the previouse link
> 
> http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Share Tips&article_id=3802757



What a strange article. Did you guys read it? All he says is 'the world is going to fall apart', but does not say why or how or anything. Just 'be prepared to die!!!'.   

I can fill in the gaps, but this type of article does no good to an informed discussion.

And, does this have anything to do with POG? Only because I imagine when the world implodes, people will be clinging to PMs????


----------



## coyotte

Kennas

this is similar to the late 80s 

the gloom merchants were out in force --  just same old trash being recycled
waiting to see a few reprints of the books of that era starting to reappear.


cheers


----------



## chicken

noirua said:
			
		

> The following link from the UK is interesting as a view on the future gold price:
> 
> http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/ar...c=3hzvcw&cp_v=3311862&cp_id=259&cp_sub_id=128



I would sugest to go to www.bulliondesk.com   GoldmannSachs has a different view on Gold...your statements re to take profit on Gold...the US $ is weakening and GOLD is on the rise read what the EXPERTS say. GOLD to hit US$750 in 2007...


----------



## kransky

Noob question here. 

Is it actually possible to buy gold (paper value ofcourse) like a share? if so, how?


----------



## Kruegs

From what I know you can buy shares in GOLD bullion on the ASX.  Code is GOLD.

Cheers,
Mark Krueger


----------



## wayneL

chicken said:
			
		

> EXPERTS



 LOL


----------



## GreatPig

kransky said:
			
		

> Is it actually possible to buy gold (paper value ofcourse) like a share? if so, how?



You can also buy Goldcorp call warrants, code ZAUWBA.

Otherwise you can buy certificates from the Perth Mint or use their depository service.

GP


----------



## coyotte

POG -- imho is as usual a real delima !

Two respected EW analysis's on this forum have opposing views 
One DN for 2 years 
the other UP 
this is the problem i have with EW even the best disagree !

Then we Steve Saville on F/A & t/a ---- UP--- BUT LIMITED

On balance UP between now and mid Jan to a max of $us 750
Then a high probability of a long term decline (2yrs)

But the catch 22 --- if POG is up , then the $au should be UP -- hence a declining POG in $au.

just my thoughts atm

cheers


----------



## wavepicker

coyotte said:
			
		

> POG -- imho is as usual a real delima !
> 
> Two respected EW analysis's on this forum have opposing views
> One DN for 2 years
> the other UP
> this is the problem i have with EW even the best disagree !
> 
> Then we Steve Saville on F/A & t/a ---- UP--- BUT LIMITED
> 
> On balance UP between now and mid Jan to a max of $us 750
> Then a high probability of a long term decline (2yrs)
> 
> But the catch 22 --- if POG is up , then the $au should be UP -- hence a declining POG in $au.
> 
> just my thoughts atm
> 
> cheers




Coyotte, don't know where you got the "the best" bit from. 

There will varying opinions between practioners in all forms Technical Analysis and not just EW.  EW is just one tool I us to help me, however I also use other forms of Cyclic Analysis which are core to my method.

You have to remember that there are many combinations possible in EW Analysis. Any person can have up to 5-6 wavecounts(with a preferred count heading them until it's invalidated by an alternate wavecount.) What you strive to acheive with EW is to form multiple wavecounts each pointing to the same conclusion or direction of trend but at varying degrees. True, EW analysis can be subjective amongst paractioners, and in itself at times can be difficult to apply if market patterns are not easy to identify. Therefore the Cyclic models I contruct, help me quantify and wave counts and try to reduce if not eliminate alternates in order to stack the cards in my favour for high probability trades.

What does your methodology say about POG ATM??? I would be interested in the opinions of yourself and those of others for Gold in say the next year??

Rather than look at the Gold chart, we might get more clues by looking at the US Dollar Index or how we expect the USD to perform against a basket of currencies such the JPY, GBP , CHF, and EUR. Ultimately it is the movement of US Dollar that will decide the fortunes of Gold, and not so  much industrial demand and supply. I must say I am bullish next year the USD (although temporarily). I beleive at the moment "It's all the same Market" For example a low in the USD may coincide with a peak in the XAO which is in the process fo forming as we speak. This will be bearish for various other commodity markets

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

POG broken down through $620 in the last hours of NY, down $11 ish for the night. Ouch.   My pile of goldies will be bleeding Monday. 

Reason was good economic news out of US including benign inflation data.

Wonder how much more good news there is to come.

I have read and seen analysts reports (US media) saying they are becoming a little concerned about the bullishness of the market and to be prepared for short term retraction on any bad news. The US market seems to have run quite hard the past few months. If we retain our own Santa Rally, then we might be looking at a retraction in early 2007.  

Specific to gold, $US has rebounded considerably resulting in POGs recent decline. This on top of benign geopolitics has pushed the price down. At the same time POI has increased slightly.....

I think if some bad US data comes out at the same time as some geopolitical uncertanty/incidents, linked with POI being held high by OPEC or increasing due to supply disruption, POG will continue it's rise. The planets just to align which I believe is inevitable.


----------



## greggy

kennas said:
			
		

> POG broken down through $620 in the last hours of NY, down $11 ish for the night. Ouch.   My pile of goldies will be bleeding Monday.
> 
> Reason was good economic news out of US including benign inflation data.
> 
> Wonder how much more good news there is to come.
> 
> I have read and seen analysts reports (US media) saying they are becoming a little concerned about the bullishness of the market and to be prepared for short term retraction on any bad news. The US market seems to have run quite hard the past few months. If we retain our own Santa Rally, then we might be looking at a retraction in early 2007.
> 
> Specific to gold, $US has rebounded considerably resulting in POGs recent decline. This on top of benign geopolitics has pushed the price down. At the same time POI has increased slightly.....
> 
> I think if some bad US data comes out at the same time as some geopolitical uncertanty/incidents, linked with POI being held high by OPEC or increasing due to supply disruption, POG will continue it's rise. The planets just to align which I believe is inevitable.



Hopefully, its only a very short term correction.  I'm still bullish on gold.


----------



## coyotte

HUI & XAU along with LIHR did not drop all that much 

LIHR  made a strong comeback closing near the high (below open) on massive volume --- could be a buying oppurtunity come monday



Cheers


----------



## ducati916

> Originally Posted by *rederob*
> 
> _Not asking you to buy gold as I am happy to do that.
> But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?
> 
> Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -
> 
> 
> And one of your multitude of sweeping conclusions:
> 
> In the light of the fact that gold has breached your preferred upper range of $720 I think it only fair to give you another opportunity to prove yourself. On the other hand, I will concede utter defeat if gold’s “parabola” collapses and by year’s end POG is trading under $800 (which I believe is generous in that my expectation was for gold to be near that level by year’s end, rather than be as “support”)._




Where are we, gee, December 18 odd, fast running out of time now, better get ready to concede utter defeat.


----------



## Nick Radge

Still tracing out a corrective move. I can only get bearish again if the early Oct lows are broken. The *weekly* chart shows a clear 3-wave decline from the May high to the Oct lows, although the alternative is a larger triangle forming with 5 internal waves. Either way, it's still only bullish until the Octover lows are breached.


----------



## Dr Doom

My crystal ball is telling me that the next 2 weeks of economics announcements will be crunch time for the US economy, the most important being the following - 

New-home sales	Nov.	12/27

Consumer confidence	Dec.	12/28

Existing-home sales	Nov.	12/28

If, as I expect, the numbers continue to be negative, the US Fed will be facing the prospect of reducing interest rates, possibly at a rate to prevent a recession. The $US should resume it's 'correction' at a 'measured pace', with gold the major benefactor. 
As there is always the possibility of geo-political factors influencing the POG, and in all probability it is unlikely that the world will be suddenly awash with peace & stability, I cannot see the POG reducing substantially through 2007.
It should be influenced more directly as a currency play as more countries seek to race their currencies to the bottom in an attempt to remain internationally competitive and to reduce exposure to the $US. 

It's all very orderly at the moment due in the most part to those Cayman Is. currency traders absorbing all those US dollars. Maybe these firms are the federal reserve itself, buying itself??????.

When the POG seems like getting above their comfort zone, noises from the World bank threatening to sell off gold to fund poor countries start to do the rounds. What they can do and will do is cancel the debt of these countries, vaporising the $US dollars that were created out of thin air in the first place.

2007 setting the next stage of the gold bull for some spectacular gains.


----------



## brerwallabi

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> It's all very orderly at the moment due in the most part to those Cayman Is. currency traders absorbing all those US dollars. Maybe these firms are the federal reserve itself, buying itself??????.




And I thought they were all Central Banks.


----------



## Kauri

And now possibly in a W3 of a W3 of a W(3) which if it pans out will go to around 700.


----------



## greggy

Kauri said:
			
		

> And now possibly in a W3 of a W3 of a W(3) which if it pans out will go to around 700.



Nice chart there.  I think gold is still in a bullish phase and next year will be another good year for gold.
DYOR


----------



## ducati916

> _Originally Posted by *rederob*
> Not asking you to buy gold as I am happy to do that.
> But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?
> 
> Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -
> 
> 
> And one of your multitude of sweeping conclusions:
> 
> In the light of the fact that gold has breached your preferred upper range of $720 I think it only fair to give you another opportunity to prove yourself. On the other hand, I will concede utter defeat if gold’s “parabola” collapses and by year’s end POG is trading under $800 (which I believe is generous in that my expectation was for gold to be near that level by year’s end, rather than be as “support”). _




"I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it smells of..............*victory*

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL

Interesting action as the the Comex pit opens  

A $1,200 USD per contract dump in 20 minutes. Bulls are living in interesting times.


----------



## ducati916

Unemployment data just out, strong wage growth.
Inflationary.
Increased Fed Funds rate?
Gold sells off.

jog on
d998


----------



## Kauri

Jobs data really caught the market by surprise...
  Last 3 days spot gold...      pretty much the inverse of the $US.


----------



## ducati916

Gold not looking super bullish at the moment;


----------



## moses

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Gold not looking super bullish at the moment;



isn't this only because the US did not lower interest rates recently, making its dollar more attractive/valuable than expected?


----------



## ducati916

moses said:
			
		

> isn't this only because the US did not lower interest rates recently, making its dollar more attractive/valuable than expected?




But this is the question isn't it;
Is Gold linked to inflation, or a proxy for inflation?

If you believe that it is, then you need to consider all the variables that impact or cause inflation. 

*Oil
*Wages/Employment
*Productivity & Capacity Utilization
*CPI
*PPI
*Government Fiscal policy [US]
*Government Monetary policy [US]
*Foreign Fiscal policy
*Foregin Monetary policy

Additional economic factors to Gold analysis;

*Industrial demand
*Retail demand
*Central Bank policy
*Increased/Decreased mine production

And given a bit of time, you could add at least another ten variables to that list. Then you'll have the techie crowd that fantasise that all the information is contained in the price.

Well actually it is.
But let's see them actually extract that information and provide an analysis that makes them consistently correct in their positions, and therefore profitable.

If you can't trade stocks profitably, why would you take on all of this?

jog on
d998


----------



## moses

But 5 days isn't exactly a trend is it?

Granted, 5 months has a similar picture...so are you arguing that gold has broken with inflation, that the POG means less than it used to? Or that the world's economy will soon be a stagnant damp squib in the bear pit?


----------



## giss

The european reserve bank equivalent is increasing its gold reserves. This might lead to an increase in the gold price. Anyone else read about that in SMH/financial review recently?


----------



## dubiousinfo

Looking at a 3 month chart for gold, it seems to show a head & shoulders with the latest drop taking it through the neckline with $580 as a target.

Any thoughts?


----------



## wavepicker

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Looking at a 3 month chart for gold, it seems to show a head & shoulders with the latest drop taking it through the neckline with $580 as a target.
> 
> Any thoughts?




Hey dubious,

The peak in Gold was forecast back in April/May this year, see posts 446 and 454. The trajectory price has taken to date was even pinpointed using EW analysis in early June(post # 559). So far has tracked pretty well. Enough said. suffice to say:-

Too all the knockers of EW analysis and EW practioners in general, ie yogi, coyotte, and buyip to name a few, next time do your homework and be a little more opened minded about any methodology before attacking it. 
With enough hard work and discipline great things are possible with any methodology. Not jst EW. In the end it's just up to you.

Cheers


----------



## noirua

A very large number of commodities are under pressure. There are a few that may whether the present storm; follow these links and study this sector carefully, as it's a cold wind heading for Australia from the USA:  http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.cnbc.com/


http://www.bloomberg.co.uk/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV#

...and a current video on that Gold price:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=161201961&play=1


----------



## fleathedog

Oh dear....

I'm going to have to take very deep breath before looking at my goldies on Monday.

I read that the latest fall was on some heavy volumes so we could see more of the same. My suspicion is that there are enough long termers looking for weakness to hold it above $600. But these things have a habit of feeding on themselves. 

Gold definately has legs from here through '07, but TWI USD 80 is turning out to be a mighty stubborn resistance. 

I'm not much on TA, so if anyone could explain what the hell a head and shoulders is (with an example if possible) I'd be most appreciative. The only indicator I've found to be consistently useful is RSI, and in terms of the USD and gold they are approaching oversold and overbought territory respectively.

Good luck all!!


----------



## noirua

fleathedog said:
			
		

> Oh dear....
> 
> I'm going to have to take very deep breath before looking at my goldies on Monday.
> 
> I read that the latest fall was on some heavy volumes so we could see more of the same. My suspicion is that there are enough long termers looking for weakness to hold it above $600. But these things have a habit of feeding on themselves.
> 
> Gold definately has legs from here through '07, but TWI USD 80 is turning out to be a mighty stubborn resistance.
> 
> I'm not much on TA, so if anyone could explain what the hell a head and shoulders is (with an example if possible) I'd be most appreciative. The only indicator I've found to be consistently useful is RSI, and in terms of the USD and gold they are approaching oversold and overbought territory respectively.
> 
> Good luck all!!




Hi, I don't know if we're on the right thread for charts, anyway, this link gives fairly basic information most of us can follow:   http://www.flexinvest.co.uk/tech-analysis.htm


----------



## ducati916

moses said:
			
		

> But 5 days isn't exactly a trend is it?
> 
> Granted, 5 months has a similar picture...so are you arguing that gold has broken with inflation, that the POG means less than it used to? Or that the world's economy will soon be a stagnant damp squib in the bear pit?




No it's not, but this same argument has been under discussion since about page 11 of this thread.

Gold is a truely lousy inflation hedge, unless you get the *timing spot on*
But if you had timing that accurate, the whole argument would be irrelevant.
Stocks have proven to be a far superior inflation hedge on a simply buy & hold basis.

If you had great *timing* then they would have decimated gold.
The reason is of course the re-investment of earnings, and the growing capital base provided by stocks, this neat little trick does not exist in gold the physical.

jog on
d998


----------



## chops_a_must

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Unemployment data just out, strong wage growth.
> Inflationary.
> Increased Fed Funds rate?
> Gold sells off.
> 
> jog on
> d998



I found it interesting that even though inflation is looking higher, the stronger USD was enough to pound the gold price. Seems almost counter-intuitive.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I found it interesting that even though inflation is looking higher, the stronger USD was enough to pound the gold price. Seems almost counter-intuitive.




Hence why I gave up on Gold back in June 06

Back then it went Inflation = Lower Gold

Lebanon Israel = Lower Gold

N Korea Nukes = Lower Gold

Butterfly Flaps its wings in Central Park = Higher Gold   

So I have accepted that Gold is being manipulated by the powers that be and they will do with it as they like and us mere mortals can only sit back and watch, 

I am not that bullish on gold for the simple reason that for gold to rise the USD has to be weaker and there's just to many Trillionaires out there who have a HUGE VESTED INTEREST IN keeping the USD strong at all costs!


----------



## vert

dubiousinfo, i came up with the h&s posibility the other day and it seems to be happening with my target @ 578, i've heard of a 65 week ma that if pog above (bullish) pog below (bearish) and @ the moment its 582. should see if we are on the right track next week.


----------



## coyotte

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Hey dubious,
> 
> The peak in Gold was forecast back in April/May this year, see posts 446 and 454. The trajectory price has taken to date was even pinpointed using EW analysis in early June(post # 559). So far has tracked pretty well. Enough said. suffice to say:-
> 
> Too all the knockers of EW analysis and EW practioners in general, ie yogi, coyotte, and buyip to name a few, next time do your homework and be a little more opened minded about any methodology before attacking it.
> With enough hard work and discipline great things are possible with any methodology. Not jst EW. In the end it's just up to you.
> 
> Cheers






Hey!
Hang on there Wavepicker 

What I was saying and not knocking EW was that basically get 10 EW analysist in a room and you end up with 11 counts  --- even you and Nick come up different at times.

But as I have posted in other threads, that it was from YOUR charts on this thread that I decided to join Nick's Service and try to come to terms with EW. 

You can't get a better complement than that.

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge

I think making a comment on 10 EW practioners coming up with 11 opinions is no different to fundamental analysts. A cursory glance at consensus opinion will show the exact same thing, albeit these analysts of formally educated in this stuff.

The other thing I would say is that taking my opinion on Gold and that of Wavepickers may in fact be looking at two completely different time frames. I know my bullish opinion, which I stand by until the count is proven incorrect, is based on daily charts. Perhaps Wavepicker is looking at weeklies or even a much larger count than mine, afterall, EW is a fractal and traces the same patterns out on numerous levels.

The recent advance in Gold unfolded in a 5-wave movement, which means its either a new impulse higher or an impulsive wave-A of a larger corrective move. Either way, the lows set back in early October should NOT be broken and we should at some stage over the coming few months trade above the recent highs. Like any good anaylsis you need to know at what point you are wrong. That level for me is a break below those October lows.


----------



## wavepicker

Hi guys,

Coyotte, thanks for the compliment, but I don't post here for the compliments. I post here to exchange ideas about TA with other traders and like minded people and learn something new. The true of measure of success is about how much $$$ lines your pockets and not whether analysis was right or wrong. Analysis is probably the smallest part of the whole package.

Unfortunately, not enough charts(or variety of methodologies) are posted here. The best work I have seen here is that of Magdoran, who has shown some great examples of precision timing.

Good luck with your EW studies Coyotte. As Nick pointed out, opinions can vary widely by practioners of the same methodology, not just with EW but any method. EW can offer up to 10 different scenarios or even much more at any given time(depending on how many degrees of trend we are talking about). These have to be ranked in order until they are each invalidated by subsequent price movement. That is one of the reasons why different practitioners may come up with different counts. I have managed through my own work in other areas to reduce the number of alternate counts dramatically and thus focus only on the high probability wave counts. 


Nick, with the Gold chart, the EW count was done with Weekly bars last April/May. This EW analysis was integrated with my own cycles work. Basically the 8.5 cycle in Gold bottoms in 2008/9, however a cycle bottom does not necessarily coincide with a new price low. As you say Gold may have already seen it's lows and just basically run net sideways until the cycle bottoms. But also, the previous swing high of $650 (which would have invalidated my bearish stance) has not been broken. As such have no reason to change it at present.  
Understand 5 wave structure and reasoning with the last move up. Looking at it simply form a daily chart perspective I would say the same thing. Sometimes however what appears a 5 wave structure ends up being a double zigzag. This is one of the limitations of EW. But as you say until the last low is broken that is the best info to work with on the daily chart if using EW as a standalone.

Looking at other markets such as other instruments traded agaist the USD  can help us here. For example, in terms of EW the USD Index  and the USD traded against a basket of major currencies looks bullish in the near term. Not to mention the broader range of metals (ie which was bearish before this current move in Gold) There are many factors at work here, and simply analysing a host of other markets in themselves help quantify wave counts.


Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge

wavepicker,
Good comments re the other mitigating factors. I should also say that the power of the recent downmove is also cause for concern. On its own merits it appears to be impulsive rather than corrective, however I'll stand by the analysis and keep those October lows as a reference.

BTW, a double zig zag consists of 6-waves. We only have 5 here.


----------



## Dr Doom

It will be an interesting week coming up, as gold bounces around the 'psychological' support level of $600. But I can't see any major fundamental reason for the slump on Friday - the employment figures were up but these statistics are routinely revised down a few weeks later. US manufacturing jobs continue to be lost, service jobs rose. Big deal. Looks like a clear case of gold getting dragged down with the other commodities. The US fed would have to realise that to raise interest rates further would risk converting a deepening housing recession into an outright depression. It (the POG) just might take a bit longer to recover from  these levels, but the longer it takes the bigger will be the subsequent retracement to new (record?) highs. Afterall, the number of US dollars in circulation is not reducing. 
Also, world gold production is declining, a central bank is 'balancing' it's books by actually buying gold, US deficits are getting worse, then there are the ever present 'geopolitical' tensions.
Only up till now there hasn't been a wall of worry to propel gold higher, every man & his dog has been bullish.
Fundamentals still there


----------



## annalivia

Mid way through 2006, US 10-year bond yields began falling again, after rising from the lows of 2003. I believe this trend could continue into 2007, as the US economy continues to weaken from a housing induced slowdown. If this is the case, the Federal Reserve is also likely to lower the official cash rate.

What has gold got to do with all this? I believe gold will eventually discount the longer term inflationary pressures that lower interest rates will bring about. So if interest rates around the globe do head lower in 2007, in my opinion gold will eventually head much higher as investors seek the safety of 'hard' assets. And the 'hardest' asset is gold.

The prospect of generating sustainable demand by lowering interest rates, in an already indebted global economy, is low. I believe lower US interest rates and weaker economic growth will do major damage to the US dollar this year, thus benefiting its old competitor, gold.

Combine this outlook with a deteriorating picture in the Middle East and we have a recipe for the gold price to hit the US$1000 level by the end of this year.

This forecast may seem unlikely, given gold's performance in the last few weeks of 2006. However, viewed from a longer term context, gold's price action has been constructive. Following the correction from the 2006 highs, gold has been forming a solid base, which is a bullish sign. As a general rule, the bigger the basing pattern, the more powerful the next upward advance.

While gold may continue to move within the recent trading range, I believe the next upward move is inevitable. In summary, I see a slowing US economy in 2007 applying downward pressure on global interest rates. In turn, I believe gold will discount the increased liquidity and paper dollar creation that lower rates will bring, and move substantially higher. The rise is unlikely to be smooth or easy to endure, but I anticipate that it will certainly be rewarding.


----------



## wavepicker

annalivia said:
			
		

> Mid way through 2006, US 10-year bond yields began falling again, after rising from the lows of 2003. I believe this trend could continue into 2007, as the US economy continues to weaken from a housing induced slowdown. If this is the case, the Federal Reserve is also likely to lower the official cash rate.
> 
> What has gold got to do with all this? I believe gold will eventually discount the longer term inflationary pressures that lower interest rates will bring about. So if interest rates around the globe do head lower in 2007, in my opinion gold will eventually head much higher as investors seek the safety of 'hard' assets. And the 'hardest' asset is gold.
> 
> The prospect of generating sustainable demand by lowering interest rates, in an already indebted global economy, is low. I believe lower US interest rates and weaker economic growth will do major damage to the US dollar this year, thus benefiting its old competitor, gold.
> 
> Combine this outlook with a deteriorating picture in the Middle East and we have a recipe for the gold price to hit the US$1000 level by the end of this year.
> 
> This forecast may seem unlikely, given gold's performance in the last few weeks of 2006. However, viewed from a longer term context, gold's price action has been constructive. Following the correction from the 2006 highs, gold has been forming a solid base, which is a bullish sign. As a general rule, the bigger the basing pattern, the more powerful the next upward advance.
> 
> While gold may continue to move within the recent trading range, I believe the next upward move is inevitable. In summary, I see a slowing US economy in 2007 applying downward pressure on global interest rates. In turn, I believe gold will discount the increased liquidity and paper dollar creation that lower rates will bring, and move substantially higher. The rise is unlikely to be smooth or easy to endure, but I anticipate that it will certainly be rewarding.




Hi annalivia,

Agreed long term gold is bullish. 

It's just that for the next 6-12 months it may continue to consolidate or even give up some more ground before moving forward again. That's they way I'm tackling it anyway. 

Nick, in so far as double zig zags go(6 wave structure) as opposed to 5 waves in an impulse, fully understand and what you say makes complete sense.  However on the daily chart, not all maybe what it appears on the surface. Many, myself included have fallen into this trap before.That's where analysis on the lower timeframes may help give some more clues.
I have seen countertrends on charts that appear to have subdivided into 5's (not breaking any rules) only to be fully retraced.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> The US fed would have to realise that to raise interest rates further would risk converting a deepening housing recession into an outright depression.



I have this aweful feeling that no matter what happens with interest rates, Americans will just keep borrowing until - kaboom! It's become a deep seeded US (now Western) cultural necessity. To own stuff. And lots of it. Even if you can't aford it!


----------



## wayneL

kennas said:
			
		

> I have this aweful feeling that no matter what happens with interest rates, Americans will just keep borrowing until - kaboom! It's become a deep seeded US (now Western) cultural necessity. To own stuff. And lots of it. Even if you can't aford it!



Recycled but still apt\/


----------



## theasxgorilla

kennas said:
			
		

> I have this aweful feeling that no matter what happens with interest rates, Americans will just keep borrowing until - kaboom! It's become a deep seeded US (now Western) cultural necessity. To own stuff. And lots of it. Even if you can't aford it!




I lay blame for this somewhere between the relentless bombardment of media campaigns that compel people to shop and the banks (Fed Reserve included) who are only pleased to see you when you're accepting a credit limit increase or inquiring about a new loan.


----------



## Sean K

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I lay blame for this somewhere between the relentless bombardment of media campaigns that compel people to shop and the banks (Fed Reserve included) who are only pleased to see you when you're accepting a credit limit increase or inquiring about a new loan.



Perhaps, but I think these capaigns etc are just cashing in on a basic human psychology. Something about self esteem and survival....Hey, look at my new Boxster - my d!ck must be bigger than yours!


----------



## theasxgorilla

I'll appropriate a quote from Will Smith in the film Happyness...saying to his kid, "If you want something, go get it, period".  I've only seen the previews so I don't know the context, but I expect he was explaining to his kid how credit cards work


----------



## Compol

Well said . . .
US needs to wake up to overspending; particularly militrary spending!
Gold price is looking good for 2008.


----------



## coyotte

As I have posted here prior 
If U wish to waste the time trying to nut out the GOLD market U could do far worst than paying a visit to the " Speculative Investor " site
Steve Saville the analyst at the site has a ( free)commentry page :
in the achives of this page U will find a artical titled " Understanding the Gold Market " 


Will probably give U a different perspective 


Cheers


----------



## Kauri

On the hourly spot gold.....  is this bearish flag No2..*????*


----------



## wavepicker

Kauri said:
			
		

> On the hourly spot gold.....  is this bearish flag No2..*????*





Certainly looks that way Kauri. I think this is gonna set up real nicely over the course of the next few weeks and months. Gold has been great to trade in the last 10 months


----------



## markrmau

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> I should also say that the power of the recent downmove is also cause for concern. On its own merits it appears to be impulsive rather than corrective, however I'll stand by the analysis and keep those October lows as a reference.



That move seems to have retraced. Funny, I don't really see any news to explain the retrace.


----------



## Dr Doom

From thestreet 

"Gold prices in New York rose Friday, with geopolitical tensions and short-covering providing the catalysts.

February-dated bullion contracts rallied $13 to close at $626.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The exchange-traded funds that own bars of gold were up also. 

Also giving a boost to bullion was the greenback, which was trading lower despite yet more robust economic news."

The endgame for the US dollar is near?


----------



## sam76

markrmau said:
			
		

> That move seems to have retraced. Funny, I don't really see any news to explain the retrace.




word had spread of SBM's 10% stake in BDG.


----------



## chicken

sam76 said:
			
		

> word had spread of SBM's 10% stake in BDG.



Gold rose by $14.55 US to $626.20..the Fed brings it up the Fed brings it down..I wish they make up their mind...looks as if the swing is to the right again


----------



## Sean K

I thought that once it had got back to $640 after testing $620 as a support line that we'd see the end of low 600s for a while....I subsequently topped up on a few of my gold stocks (not SBM yet Chicken) only to see them get roasted. I'm a bit happier today, but until it gets back over $640 it's in range mode. 

Still holding:
NCM - Possible takeover target. Millions and millions of oz au (59m I think)
LHG - 20m oz au. predator (so it doesn't get taken over) low hedging. Country risk. 
KMN - 5.6 m oz au equiv inferred ++ (maybe 8 IMO) in Mexico, into production maybe late 08 - unhedged. Final resource estimate this quarter. 
IRN - 62% stake in Tampakan taken by Xstrata. 11 m oz au + a little copper   
BSG - 3-4 m oz au equiv. Possible takeover target, undervalued on TSX. Into production 07. 
GCR - A dog, woof woof - possible 1.5m oz au, cheap as chips. At all time lows - don't get smelly fingers on this puppy. I'm holding out of stubborness.

Sold BDG, PSV and CTO recently. Just not going where I wanted...

Anywho, not sure why I put that list up there. Perhaps I need someone to tell me, hey kennas, they're great stocks!    Or, maybe you can shoot me down and tell me better undervalued ones......

Yes, Chicken, I know about SBM.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Whats interesting is from this time last year ie Jan 06 to now ie Jan 07, how many supposed producers have actually met target production figures?

I HAVEN'T DONE ANY RESEARCH, THIS IS ALL FROM MEMORY SO CORRECT ANY ERRORS YOU SEE

ARX? OMG What a screw up!
BDG? Certainly not
BGF? Nope
BMO? Again nope (what a disaster)
CRE? Don't think so
CRS? Well we all know how this went
DRA? Again nope
GLN? Nope more funding required
IGR? Don't think so
TAM? lol no comment required


I think what I'm trying to get at is how many companies have actually delivered on production forecasts? a few maybe like SMB, TRY, LHG and so on, but the vast majority of small to mid cap players haven't, surely this lack of supply will eventually have an effect, 

But then I don't understand the gold price so (and I don't think anyone on ASF does lol just the US Fed and the Powers that be!)


----------



## markrmau

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> CRE? Don't think so



I hold CRE, so I am biased. 

As far as I am aware, they are in final stages of construction and so production should be ramping up in the next 6 months, which isn't too bad considering industry-wide cost overruns and delays.

BDG's uneven grade problems won't be a problem here as they have deliberately targeted low grade high tonnage resources.

Unfortunately, they hived off their uranium assets. I would have preferred they waited for some cash to role in and drilled it themselves.


----------



## Kauri

Daily spot Gold.... 
 A bit early for a trade but setting up.. and/or a bullish flag fluttering too..


----------



## machi

Kauri said:
			
		

> Daily spot Gold....
> A bit early for a trade but setting up.. and/or a bullish flag fluttering too..





This is not looking too inspiring IMO at present, and silver seemed to fall away somewhat last night. Too early to call at present. With the rising USD this is starting to become a low probability scenario.


----------



## Dr Doom

What do you think of the longer term chart?. Setting up for a breakout, one way or the other?. I give it 3 weeks by this chart.


----------



## Sean K

I thought the last break though $640 was a break UP. I'll stick to that again.....Will be right one day.....


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> I thought the last break though $640 was a break UP. I'll stick to that again.....Will be right one day.....




   Looking to 635-640 short term before a correction back to 620's.. Having said that watch it tank!!!


----------



## Dr Doom

Another chart, another perspective. Big things about to happen in the next month????
Very rough calcs - up sloping triangle indication price projection to roughly $900. 

Gold stocks look to be behind the curve in a waiting game to see if gold can finally push past $640. If it does, expect to see a mad scramble for sold off gold shares eg NCM the last couple of days.

To use *chickens* term, 'the capper' has been really busy at $640, but may soon come unstuck.


----------



## noirua

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Another chart, another perspective. Big things about to happen in the next month????
> Very rough calcs - up sloping triangle indication price projection to roughly $900.
> 
> Gold stocks look to be behind the curve in a waiting game to see if gold can finally push past $640. If it does, expect to see a mad scramble for sold off gold shares eg NCM the last couple of days.
> 
> To use *chickens* term, 'the capper' has been really busy at $640, but may soon come unstuck.





Hi, The pattern is not very convincing, as you have had to go right back to November 2005, to pick up a third point in the rising trend, to form the triangle. In my view, say over 3 or 4 months, the triangle has not fully formed and may equally be pointing to a reversal.


----------



## Dr Doom

Do you think my previous weekly chart is more relevant?. I'm not right into ta so just doodling trying to figure out what's ahead. Gold is probably the hardest to figure out as it has so many influences. Having been a gold price watcher everyday for the last 7 years, my 'gut' feeling is that something is going to happen soon as it's been bouncing back strongly after attempts to sell off.


----------



## GreatPig

My chart, using the ASX GOLD code, is completely the opposite: a large bearish triangle.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Sean K

It's slightly more bearish to me, but the higher high in Jan compared to Oct gives me some heart. Also, breaking $640 was positive and this latest move back towards that level might see it test it again. I'm on the fence with one leg in the bear pit.


----------



## chicken

kennas said:
			
		

> It's slightly more bearish to me, but the higher high in Jan compared to Oct gives me some heart. Also, breaking $640 was positive and this latest move back towards that level might see it test it again. I'm on the fence with one leg in the bear pit.



Kennas..check out the www.thebulliondesk.com the english side read the lates what is happening in India....start of Gold trading in India...which will affect the Gold market....also India is the largest consumer of Gold...India imported in 2006   600tons....I dont know how many ozs of Gold that is but it is huge...so interesting times ahead...


----------



## chicken

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> What do you think of the longer term chart?. Setting up for a breakout, one way or the other?. I give it 3 weeks by this chart.



Dr Doom....I like your Chart as the PIGS chart the bottomline is in the wrong place...as Dr Dooms Chart does not look bearish...look at what is happening in 1 months in India..Gold trading will start in a big way.....and China as well..so all prediction POG will rise...the US will no longer controll it all as right now...see..  www.thebulliondesk.com  its the English side.......re precious metals...not the US BS....


----------



## wayneL

chicken said:
			
		

> so *all* prediction POG will rise.



Usually a good indicator of a fall


----------



## chicken

wayneL said:
			
		

> Usually a good indicator of a fall



Waynel....you been saying this since I posted on this board...you might get it right one day...which day I do not know...LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO


----------



## Sean K

chicken said:
			
		

> Dr Doom....I like your Chart as the PIGS chart the bottomline is in the wrong place...as Dr Dooms Chart does not look bearish...look at what is happening in 1 months in India..Gold trading will start in a big way.....and China as well..so all prediction POG will rise...the US will no longer controll it all as right now...see..  www.thebulliondesk.com  its the English side.......re precious metals...not the US BS....



Actually, Great Pig's chart's 'bottom line' is in the correct place IMO. There is a definate support line around $570. This has been well accepted for some time. 

Dr Doom's chart's top line is slightly in the wrong position IMO. There should be a slight downward slope. While I thought we broke the downward trend earlier as indicated on my chart at the green circle, it turned to a false break and we are now getting lower lows once again. The break up will not be confirmed until POG is clear of $645 now, IMO. As we can see, this is the problem with reading charts, especially from different sources. 

'Gold trading will start in a big way'. What are you referring to Chicken?  

What has happened in '1 months in India' Chicken?

'All prediction POG will rise', well, actually there is every chance that POG could head back to $570 ish as often quoted and analysed, and Mark Faber himself, a gold bull, stated in his latest Bloomberg interview that he saw gold heading back to these levels in the short term before resuming the upward trend. 

Wayne's point, while with a touch of deliberate sarcasm, has every merit. When everyone is following the heard mentality, the momentum gathers to a certain point that the market overshoots fundamentals quite drastically, turning into a bubble, and eventually pops. While some will disagree with me, uranium explorers with market caps the size of a small African country will eventually come back to their intrinsic value. For many, this will be $0.00. 

'The English side' is going to control PMs? What do you mean Chicken? Is it India, China, or Great Britain controling the future of PMs and how so?


Any chance of a clarrification of these points please Chicken? I'm a little confused.

Personally, I think gold will eventually rise as the $US declines over the next year or two, and geopolitics remain unstable. China's starting to launch missiles into space now! And I read reports over the weekend that Jordan and Egypt want to start Nuclear power industries. I do not think the POO will stay low for very long with the chance that inflation will rise agin in the US resulting in possible interest rate rises and the US housing market comming more unstuck than it is. At the moment, it does look like potential foft landing. But exactly how it unfolds I could not say.

One thing is for certain, there are many different opinions out there on how the world economy is going to unfold, and how the POG will go. No one can say for certainty IMO, as there are too many unknowns. Everyone has a valid opinion if presented objectively and with some type of rational analysis. 

What's your rational, objective opinion Chicken?


----------



## Dr Doom

So, maybe a short term bearish with descending triangle on a long term bullish ascending triangle = breakout either way, with some degree of decisiveness, is possible?

Gold stock buyers generally don't think it's going to be to the upside as gold sp's have lagged and even fallen further from the initial 'crash' from $640 to $605 recently, but haven't followed gold back up to $635.

When is the next full moon?. (Don't laugh, astrology is becoming more acceptable as a trading tool).


----------



## Dr Doom

New rules by the IMF for central bank gold lending & swaps.

From Blanchard - 


"According to the IMF, nearly all gold loans are made via unallocated accounts. 
Gold lent via unallocated accounts will be removed from central bank gold reserves. 
Gold lent via allocated accounts will be removed from reserves if the gold is not readily available upon demand. We assume “upon demand” will be defined by the loco London clearing transfer time period of 48 hours. 
The term “residents” includes bullion banks, but is not limited to loans made via bullion banks in unallocated accounts. This will also include loans directly to fabricators and private third parties from unallocated accounts as well as allocated accounts that are not available upon demand. 
The definition of allocated and unallocated gold will be made much clearer along with the guidelines defining the trading of those accounts. 
(For a description of allocated and unallocated accounts from the LBMA, please read the Appendix I in the Gold Lending Paper at www.blanchardgold.com/beru or visit the LBMA website at www.lbma.org.uk) 

Blanchard’s review of these five short and clear points on the coming changes to gold reserve accounting indicates that they are exactly what we expected to see after reviewing the previous position papers and committee recommendations. Gold swapped and loaned by central banks via bullion banks nearly always is taken from unallocated accounts. “In this treatment, unallocated gold accounts held with residents (such as bullion banks) are excluded from reserve assets.” This loaned and swapped gold will now be excluded from reserve asset totals.

To be sure, this is not an issue that will send the market higher in one day…this will have a much greater, long term impact on the market by providing new transparency on levels of gold swapped and loaned into the market that was not previously available to all market participants. *We believe that this development should be considered as important, if not more so, than the Washington Agreement on Gold in 1999 and the legalization of gold ownership by Chinese citizens in 2004*."


Background article from Blanchard here


----------



## Sean K

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> So, maybe a short term bearish with descending triangle on a long term bullish ascending triangle = breakout either way, with some degree of decisiveness, is possible?



LOL, I had thought that it was a decending triangle until it breaks $640 and we have some more higher lows. But maybe now, it's officially going decisively sideways...


----------



## Dr Doom

hi kennas,
You might be interested in this - get's back to my feeling that if the pog breaks up then it's up with a vengeance! And mining stocks to play catch up.

Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, takes a look: “Thus far in 2007, as all eyes have been fixed on oil’s sharp decline, few have noticed the resilience of gold. Since January 1, while oil is off by about 13% and the Dollar Index is up close to 2%, the price of gold has held steady. In fact the gold market has sold off several times in recent months, but held the line at $600 on each occasion. But while gold itself has shown strength, gold mining stocks are off about 7% thus far this year, as traders continue to discount a price decline that has yet to materialize. 

“To me, this action is indicative of some serious physical buying. For now the growing demand is being satisfied by nervous longs exiting the market and speculative shorts betting on a decline. However, a market that refuses to break will eventually turn and head higher. When that happens, a spectacular gold rally will likely ensue. Those who sold prematurely will rush to re-establish their long positions and those who sold short will rush to cover. With few sellers left to take the other side of the trades, the price of gold will spike higher.”


----------



## Sean K

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> hi kennas,
> You might be interested in this - get's back to my feeling that if the pog breaks up then it's up with a vengeance! And mining stocks to play catch up.
> 
> Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, takes a look: “Thus far in 2007, as all eyes have been fixed on oil’s sharp decline, few have noticed the resilience of gold. Since January 1, while oil is off by about 13% and the Dollar Index is up close to 2%, the price of gold has held steady. In fact the gold market has sold off several times in recent months, but held the line at $600 on each occasion. But while gold itself has shown strength, gold mining stocks are off about 7% thus far this year, as traders continue to discount a price decline that has yet to materialize.
> 
> “To me, this action is indicative of some serious physical buying. For now the growing demand is being satisfied by nervous longs exiting the market and speculative shorts betting on a decline. However, a market that refuses to break will eventually turn and head higher. When that happens, a spectacular gold rally will likely ensue. Those who sold prematurely will rush to re-establish their long positions and those who sold short will rush to cover. With few sellers left to take the other side of the trades, the price of gold will spike higher.”



Thanks Doom, I'll sleep better tonight on these thoughts! Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

And I'm going to sleep much better tonight after seeing the open in NY:


----------



## Kauri

I think that after the May 06 highs a lot of commentaters/TV experts forecast a classic 50% correction, the first corrective wave A was 38% before a 62% retrace. So far the Wave C only fell back to  38%. A lot of them still back in the 50% ($480) level, with waves now going to ABCDE.... ... in the meantime gold may just be tracing out a minor W 1 of a Wave 3.... who knows which way it will eventually pan out. If gold threatens the old Wave B high around $680 watch the pundits start seriously get behind it.  Likewise if it approaches the $560 mark the bears will be unbearable.    In the meantime there are valid shorter term trading opportunities ....


----------



## Nick Radge

As per post #964. 

The Jan 5 low was exactly 61.8% of the 5-wave advance to the Dec 1 high.

The decline from the Dec 1 high to the Jan 5 low unfolded exactly in 3-waves.

Wave-c of that 3-wave decline was within $3 of the same length of wave-a.

We have now made a wave-2 or -B low on Jan 5 and should travel, at least, back to $688 being the same distance as the Oct 4 to Dec 1 rally. That move will complete wave-3 or -C. An extension through that level, especially if its strong and smooth, suggests we're moving higher in a larger 5-wave pattern which puts $800 back on the agenda. On the flipside, should those lows of Jan 1 be breached then the bullish argument is under threat. 

Elliott Wave doesn't get any clearer. Let the pattern build. Know what can occur and where the pattern will be invalidated. We now have clear boundaries to trade with.


----------



## wavepicker

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> As per post #964.
> 
> The Jan 5 low was exactly 61.8% of the 5-wave advance to the Dec 1 high.
> 
> The decline from the Dec 1 high to the Jan 5 low unfolded exactly in 3-waves.
> 
> Wave-c of that 3-wave decline was within $3 of the same length of wave-a.
> 
> We have now made a wave-2 or -B low on Jan 5 and should travel, at least, back to $688 being the same distance as the Oct 4 to Dec 1 rally. That move will complete wave-3 or -C. An extension through that level, especially if its strong and smooth, suggests we're moving higher in a larger 5-wave pattern which puts $800 back on the agenda. On the flipside, should those lows of Jan 1 be breached then the bullish argument is under threat.
> 
> Elliott Wave doesn't get any clearer. Let the pattern build. Know what can occur and where the pattern will be invalidated. We now have clear boundaries to trade with.




Well done,

This could be a bull move as you say BUT one has to look at other possibilities too, it could also be part of this on going correction that started back in May last year. What if the move down from 12/05/06 to 14/06/06 was a larger wave A. If the sideways move since then is a larger B wave, then this may only be the sub wave c leg of a larger triangular wave B. Wave c's in triangles can get quite complex compared to the other subdivisions. Too early to call, and only a break above $676.5 would seal the bullish case for me. Certainly looking more bullish in the nearterm, but the longer term fate fate of the yellow metal largely depends on the movements of the USD.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

In the meantime gold is headbutting against the November highs, might be a good place for the minor W1 of the possible W3 to terminate?? Long term bullish or bearish, there are still trades unfolding in the shorter term.


----------



## Reefer

Any gold stocks we should be tracking if the price of gold is about to surge?


----------



## mick2006

not yet producing but about to announce an upgrade to Tunkillia Gold Deposit in South Australia either MEP or HLX have some good exploration ground


----------



## Dr Doom

Doing some analysis on the pog, and came up with this 10 minute chart. An advance in price per cycle figure of $12.5 keeps repeating like clockwork. The price kept within a $6.30 range for some day's before the latest rally, then each advance, from bottom to peak in each cycle, has been approx $12.50 or so. Advance $12.50 then followed by a retrace of $6.30. ???

Next advance to $659 or so??


----------



## Dr Doom

Reefer said:
			
		

> Any gold stocks we should be tracking if the price of gold is about to surge?




Reefer
No specific stocks, but here's a good site to get started with, roughly sorted by whether they are producing, about to produce or exploring.

GoldOz

Start with the juniors about to produce list.


----------



## Kauri

Has reached what I would consider an absolute minimum to qualify as a retracement... would prefer W2's ABC to be deeper and more clearly defined..still there's time yet......
   Am watching for a setup to develop to pyramid current position on a possible W3 developing ...


----------



## Dr Doom

Looks like the 10 min uptrend channel has broken down somewhat, & now consolidating sideways. It appears the/my $12.50 rule is still working though, with the rise from around $642 to $655 today. See if it re-traces back to ($655-$6.30) = $648 or back to the new base of $642. 

Kauri, how's it stack up with Elliot now?


----------



## Kauri

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Looks like the 10 min uptrend channel has broken down somewhat, & now consolidating sideways. It appears the/my $12.50 rule is still working though, with the rise from around $642 to $655 today. See if it re-traces back to ($655-$6.30) = $648 or back to the new base of $642.
> 
> Kauri, how's it stack up with Elliot now?




  Not sure if the C leg is going to come in to prove up the correction..    ..  so may not get a chance to pyramid my position... will sit pat for the moment and let it develop..


----------



## Bush Trader

Not a Tech perspective, however may be of interest

*IMF May Sell 400 Tonnes Of Gold*
Source FN Arena News - February 01 2007 

By Greg Peel
To think that anyone might sell a whole 400 tonnes (about US$6.6bn worth) of gold is one very scary prospect, particularly if you are long gold and still betting on a return to the highs. But this is exactly what an advisory panel that includes (ex fed chairman) Alan Greenspan and (European Central Bank president) Jean-Claude Trichet has recommended the IMF should do.
The reason is that the IMF, by its very nature, is set up to lose money. One way to stop losing money is for the IMF to switch out of some of its vast hoard (3,217t at last count) of non-interest-bearing gold and into other interest-bearing securities.
Founded at the end of World War II as a result of the Bretton Woods Agreement, the International Monetary Fund was initially the manager of all the gold that was held for the purpose of guaranteeing currency values under the gold standard. Between 1976 and 1980, the IMF made its last major gold sales after the US forced a collapse of the gold standard and a benchmarking to the US dollar (the Vietnam War sent the US broke). Then it sold 50Moz.
Today the IMF keeps watch over the currency, trade and economic policies of its 185 members, and provides them with advice. One of its functions is to provide low-cost loans to countries who get themselves into economic strife, provided that country addresses their problem of balance of payments or rampant inflation or whatever has caused that strife.
On this basis, the IMF is on a bet to nothing. While only a low cost loan to begin with, if that country follows the Fund's guidelines, digs itself out of its economic hole, and pays the loan back before maturity, the Fund loses money. It's nice to be charitable, but it can't go on forever. This fiscal year, the IMF is projected to lose US$103m, next year US$185m, and the following year US$244m, reports Bloomberg.
The advisory panel estimates the IMF could make US$195m per year by investing the proceeds from its sold gold.
But this is a huge amount of gold – more than twice the total value of paper gold exchanged on Comex on any given day. How can it be sold without causing the gold price to collapse?
Firstly, the sales would be made over a number of years. Secondly, the sales would never see the market, but would be sold directly to central banks. There are enough central banks making noises about diversifying out of US dollars, so it shouldn't be that hard to find buyers. It is a much simpler way for central banks to buy gold, instead of in the market. As the IMF is likely to want reasonable value for its gold, central bank buying would actually prove more bullish than IMF selling is bearish.
One group that is unsurprising sceptical about the whole thing is the Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) committee. "The central banks must be running low on gold", is GATA's response. GATA has long maintained that the dominant central banks hold far less gold than they let on.
The aforementioned advisory panel is chaired by Andrew Crockett, president of JP Morgan Chase International, "the great gold shorter for the central banks", according to GATA, and formerly director of the Bank of International Settlements, "the great coordinator of the central bank gold price suppression scheme". The latter accusation was confirmed by one of Crokett's former BIS colleagues in 2005 (in not so many words).
Whatever the reasons, gold fans do not have a lot to worry about. Indeed, any sale would appear to have more bullish ramifications than bearish.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

The $US must be in serious trouble if the IMF is thinking of selling that much Gold

Sell Gold, drive down spot, make it a less attractive investment, keep the spotlight on the US$ as the best investment, how long can they keep it up?


----------



## bvbfan

Could it all be a rouse to take the spot light of a possible bullion bank blow up?

Probably one of the few assets that the central banks own that has performed well in the last 5 years!


----------



## Dr Doom

Spot gold has just past my target of $659, and is starting to get some momentum behind it. The sabre rattling by central banks threatening to sell vaults of gold doesn't appear to be working anymore, gold is doing it's own thing again.  You have to remember these are the same organisations that were selling gold at firesale prices a few years ago. Even the Reserve Bank of Australia plundered our gold reserves and sold at bargain basement prices, yet nothing is ever said about this. England did the same.

We are heading into the traditional peak season for gold coming up to May, so may have some legs yet, despite central banks best intentions to keep a lid on the price. 

(China's Shanghai stock market is about to implode, so hold on for the ride. Turnover at the Shanghai Stock Exchange for the first 2 weeks of 2007 has reached 20% of the level of all of last year.!!! And last year it gained 130%!!)


----------



## Kauri

Starting to like my alternate count (in red)


----------



## Dr Doom

So what are the tea leaves telling you kauri? Is it game on?.


----------



## Kauri

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> So what are the tea leaves telling you kauri? Is it game on?.




Dr D..
     Sorry,trying to do too many things at once... this chart is how I see it at the moment... will let it work itself out from here.   Hows the channel trades going??


----------



## Kauri

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Spot gold has just past my target of $659, and is starting to get some momentum behind it. The sabre rattling by central banks threatening to sell vaults of gold doesn't appear to be working anymore, gold is doing it's own thing again. You have to remember these are the same organisations that were selling gold at firesale prices a few years ago. Even the Reserve Bank of Australia plundered our gold reserves and sold at bargain basement prices, yet nothing is ever said about this. England did the same.
> 
> We are heading into the traditional peak season for gold coming up to May, so may have some legs yet, despite central banks best intentions to keep a lid on the price.
> 
> (China's Shanghai stock market is about to implode, so hold on for the ride. Turnover at the Shanghai Stock Exchange for the first 2 weeks of 2007 has reached 20% of the level of all of last year.!!! And last year it gained 130%!!)




Gold Forecast - Global Watch      
January 31, 2007

Between the end of August and the end of November Russia, according to the I.M.F., increased its ‘Official’ holdings of gold by 9.2 tonnes, which averaged a cautious 1 tonne a week. For them to reach the targets implied by government officials as high as President Putin wanted at 10% of reserves, they will have to increase the pace of these purchases dramatically.   With oil exports roaring along with the higher oil price and Russian reserves burgeoning, a gold price rise cannot, at this stage, be expected to rise fast enough to make this figure a reality all by itself.   Much heavier purchases need to be made. 
Other Central banks in the Central Bank Gold Agreement have just entered the market to BUY more coins [to refine existing stocks of currently owned gold coins is one thing, but to go into the gold market to buy good amounts of gold coins [the second instance now] is another thing. If this continues it will be extremely difficult to make us believe it is a ‘housekeeping’ exercise again? The much lower gold sales by the signatories of the agreement on a weekly basis shows us that the heart is leaving the gold sellers now.


----------



## Dr Doom

Kauri said:
			
		

> Dr D..
> Sorry,trying to do too many things at once... this chart is how I see it at the moment... will let it work itself out from here.   Hows the channel trades going??




Hi kauri,
As simple as it seems, the channels seem to be working. Need a pullback to around $654 to keep to form, then back to around $666?. Although at some stage it would be looking to break out of this sideways channel and revert to the previous slope, which would mean much larger incremental gains from now on. Served it's purpose 'till now though. Depends now on $US & oil? 
$US at a critical juncture, so needs to make a convincing break either way from where it is now to confirm golds trend. Oil may make another attempt to get back to the mid $60's if it is to confirm the bear correction is dead? or just a dcb?. As usual, a lot of factors to influence the pog.
DD


----------



## Kauri

Well I've closed out my positions as I see a correction coming. Will look to re-enter after the      *inevitable *   retrace... I hope


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:
			
		

> Well I've closed out my positions as I see a correction coming. Will look to re-enter after the      *inevitable *   retrace... I hope




This could be the reason the shine has come off a bit today:



> *Because of waning loan revenues, IMF advised to sell gold reserves to help meet expenses	*
> 
> Jan 31, 2007 (AP Worldstream via COMTEX) -- WASHINGTON AP) - To help meet expenses, the International Monetary Fund should sell some of its gold reserves and invest the proceeds, a group of prominent financial figures said in a report Wednesday. ==========>>>>>>>MORE<<<<<<<<===========


----------



## Kauri

Looks like we are going to get there a lot quicker than I thought...


----------



## wayneL

Rumours of a hedge fund dealing in metals blown up.


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:
			
		

> Rumours of a hedge fund dealing in metals blown up.




Have posted headlines of Red Kite hedge fund *troubles* (from Wall Street Journal) in the zinc thread.... unless copper/lead/zinc recover soon on 
Comex/LME we might have a tad troublesome day with our miners come Monday... :fan


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:
			
		

> Have posted headlines of Red Kite hedge fund *troubles* (from Wall Street Journal) in the zinc thread.... unless copper/lead/zinc recover soon on
> Comex/LME we might have a tad troublesome day with our miners come Monday... :fan




I don't know whether my rumour is in addition to the red kite troubles or whether it's the same thing... but my source should have been aware of that report.

Just have to wait and see waht comes out in the wash.


----------



## Kauri

Metals dive on report of fund losses
Fri Feb 2, 2007 5:56 PM GMT
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
 LONDON (Reuters) - Base metals prices fell sharply onthe London Metal Exchange on Friday on a report of heavy lossesat a hedge fund and in the absence of Chinese buyers, dealerssaid.

 "The market is collapsing," a European trader said.

 Three-months zinc fell by nearly 9 percent at onestage, copper was down by over 6 percent and aluminium dropped by some 3 percent in a generalsell-off.

 Traders said the selling was mostly on behalf of funds,triggered by a report of heavy losses at a hedge fund thatspecialises in metals trading.

 Once prices hit specific chart levels the fall for mostmetals accelerated.

 "Fund liquidation...a lot of stops triggered -- a lot of thestuff on the back of the Red Kite news," the trader said.

 Hedge fund Red Kite, which posted strong gains in 2006, hassuffered a roughly 20 percent loss in the first days of Januaryand is now trying to stall investors who want to pull money out,The Wall Street Journal reported.

 "It is quite scary, actually, a lot of volume going throughand no one is buying the stuff," analyst Michael Widmer atCalyon said.

 By 1520 GMT benchmark copper for delivery in three months was at $5,330/5,340 per tonne,down from the close of$5,600 on Thursday.

 Widmer said the market was also influenced by data from theUnited States this week.

 The global indicator produced by JP Morgan with research andsupply management organisations fell to 52.4 in January -- itslowest since August 2005 -- from 53.4 in December.

 Global factory output growth also sank to its lowest inthree and a half years to 53.0 from 54.3.

 Copper is down more than 12 percent since the start of theyear and around $3,000 below the peak it hit in May last year.

 Zinc was down $300 at $3,090/3,110.

 "There's no evidence of fresh buying from speculativequarters, and all the indications are that the Chinese are goingto wait until after the New Year holidays before coming to themarket," another dealer said.

 In previous months, some of the investment funds that playthe commodities markets have used the first few days of themonth to add more metals to their portfolios, but that patternhas become less pronounced recently.

 Aluminium was down $58 at $2,695/2,700.

 The only metal trading in positive terrain was steel-makinginput nickel, up $750 or 2 percent at $37,600/37,800after inventories of metal, already low, fell another 144 tonnesto 3,222.

 "General sentiment remains positive because of the currentlow stock levels," LME broker Sucden said in a market report.

 Lead was down $25 at an indicated $1,640/1,655 andtin was indicated down $105 at $11,795/11,800.

[/font]


----------



## Dr Doom

Looks like the carnage spilled over to the pog. Nice re-trace to support at $642 & bounce back. Maybe looking for a healthy correction next week.

PS kauri have you seen this story on Elliot wave on gold

I closed my LHG too - wait for a better entry, though shouldn't have to wait too long this cycle


----------



## rico01

Gold at $652 .7 @ 9.10 pm looking good for gold stocks tomorrow


----------



## mick2006

as long as oil keeps rising and the Federal Reserve is still concerned about inflation Gold will continue to rise, looks like some of the smaller explorers have benefited the most from the rise in the gold price eg. CRE, CRK, BYR, BCN


----------



## eMark

rico01 said:
			
		

> Gold at $652 .7 @ 9.10 pm looking good for gold stocks tomorrow




I trust OXR will continue to have same muted reaction, as has been the recent theme.


----------



## Dr Doom

I think most gold stocks have not re-acted to the recent strength in gold, ie there seems to be more re-action to downside moves than to upside moves which suggests uncertainty and unwillingness to add to positions until there is a clear break up. What that magical price point will be, who knows. 

I'm back into OXR this week as the AGC deal is digested fully and the synergies fully appreciated. I think the current OXR price is bottom of the channel and expect the usual bi-monthly takeover rumour to re-surface soon. Lots of upside?.

Heres an interesting story about gold manipulation conspiracy & bullish viewpoints, some extracts....

" Gold and commodity bulls received a crucial increase in support this past week when 13-D Research, written by my old friend Kiril Sokoloff, went bullish. This service, similar to The Gartman Letter in being very expensive and marketed to institutions, publishes weekly and concentrates on matters of grand strategy. It's not followed by the HFD. But its fans say its record is formidable.
Buying an outright oil position for what it says is only the second time in its history, 13-D suggests *commodities could be starting a "huge rally, led by gold." *

Full story here


----------



## Kauri

Nearly completed it's correction???


----------



## Dr Doom

If it holds the trend tonight we should be looking at a major rise, ie make or break tonight?


----------



## BREND

CAPE TOWN ”” The gold price is likely to average $674/oz this year but could range between $730 and $852 in the most optimistic scenario, global gold guru Martin Murenbeeld said. 

Murenbeeld, who is chief economist of the Dundee Group of Companies, is well known for previous accurate predictions of the gold price. 

He told the annual Mining Indaba conference that a number of factors were bullish for the gold price. 

The dollar was likely to weaken as it was currently overvalued based on the US current account deficit of $850bn, and that downward adjustment could be by as much as 20%. 

Currently dollar gold holdings around the world were excessive, at about $4,8-trillion, of which $2,6-trillion was held by Asian countries. 

For those countries, gold was only 1,4% of reserves, compared with 15% held by the European Central Bank.

Although the Asian countries were unlikely to push gold holdings up to 15% of reserves, if they simply absorbed the 500 tons a year that were being sold by certain central banks, it would support the gold price.

The number of barrels of oil needed to buy an ounce of gold was now far lower than in the past. 

With very high oil revenues, oil producers had excessive amounts of money and there was great pressure on them to diversify their assets. 

Gold was cheap in comparison with other financial assets.


----------



## Bush Trader

Here are some fundamental observaions to back up your tech analysis

Cheers


*Central Banks Buying Gold

Source:* FN Arena News - February 08 2007 


By Greg Peel

Gold dealer Blanchard & Co reports the latest IMF statistics indicate the central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan, Greece and The Philippines have all added to gold reserves recently. Of the four, Russia had often talked of gold purchases, but the other three are a surprise to the market.
Russia added 7.45t to reserves, Kazakhstan 7.38t, Greece 3.56t and Philippines 1.4t.
Blanchard & Co notes the trend of central bank gold activity is shifting towards the buy side, as the above purchases come not long after the Central Bank Gold Agreement banks failed to meet their selling quota in 2006. This is a bullish sign, says Blanchard's CEO Donald W. Doyle.
UK commodity specialist Natexis has also joined the chorus of gold bulls, suggesting any price weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity. While demand from the jewellery sector has not been particularly strong, buying does reappear if gold drifts towards US$600/oz.
The supply side is also supportive, notes Natexis, and gold scrap supply is not expected to hit the market until US$700/oz is breached. A higher gold price is gaining market acceptance. The key driving factor will be an increase in activity from the investment community, the analysts suggest.


----------



## chops_a_must

Can we put gold in the breakout thread? Lol!


----------



## Dr Doom

Chops, we'll see if LHG gets over $3.20 convincingly on Monday. Good night for gold, should be good day Monday


----------



## greggy

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Chops, we'll see if LHG gets over $3.20 convincingly on Monday. Good night for gold, should be good day Monday



Nice chart as always.  The gold price is looking very good.
DYOR


----------



## angela200172

greggy said:
			
		

> Nice chart as always.  The gold price is looking very good.
> DYOR










Chinese bought a lot gold before the Chinese New Year.


----------



## adobereader

Gold looks too high at the moment. May see a bit of profit taking over the next couple of weeks. No real fundamentals on why it has been going up. Gold stocks have not followed the move so they must know something.


----------



## chops_a_must

adobereader said:
			
		

> Gold looks too high at the moment. May see a bit of profit taking over the next couple of weeks. No real fundamentals on why it has been going up. Gold stocks have not followed the move so they must know something.



Bollocks.

http://www.blanchardonline.com/beru...l_Banks_unexpectedly_buying_gold_for_reserves


----------



## Bush Trader

This may be of interest.

*Wave Goodbye To US$600 Gold
Source:*  FN Arena News - February 13 2007 
By Greg Peel

GoldMoney.com's founder James Turk is a card-carrying gold bug. However, in a report published on Monday Turk supports his argument with a technical assessment. Notes Turk:
"It has now been more than one month since the January 5th low, and the performance by both gold and silver has been impressive. Gold has climbed $62.60, or 10.3%. Silver has done even better, climbing $1.75, or 14.4%."
Silver, says Turk, looks even better than gold. Turk believes we may have seen a "selling climax" on January 5 and the probability is rising that gold will "never go back below US$600/oz". He considers it a 75% probability that gold will never go back to US$500/oz, and a 98% probability for US$100/oz, just to put things in perspective.
Turk further points out, for the record, that gold waved goodbye to US$35/oz when President Nixon abandoned the Gold Standard and the US dollar became a fiat currency. No fiat currency in history has ever survived, notes Turk. The US dollar may be the exception to the rule, he says, "But if you don't like the long odds of that outcome, buy gold instead".


Cheers


----------



## Dr Doom

Secular trend re-established as per Bushy's yearly chart breakout from triangle. New supports at $661 & $649. Stochastic coming off a double bottom and price coming off minor support trendline. Short term target of $672, maybe tonight?.


----------



## Kauri

Not too sure of the E/W count, but none the less it is butting up against a *very critical level* (Bullish/Bearish??) at 676, the top of the first impulsive drive in the correction to last years 730 major top.


----------



## bean

First post but a gold and silver bug  hint i have no shares  COT is high and heavy resistance


----------



## Dr Doom

My figures  line up with you Kauri at $674.50 approx. Optimistic targets for tonight trade high =$674.50 & $680. Looks like the stochastic has failed though so it looks like there might be a retracement possibly to supports at $661 or $649.


----------



## BlueDaze

*Elliott Wave Gold Update XI*

*Elliott Wave Gold Update XI*
By: Alf Field

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1171296000.php


----------



## chops_a_must

Well and truly breaking down now.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Well and truly breaking down now.




Dear chops, 

Can you bring me up to speed with Gold. I bought x3  bars 5oz I believe and hav e had them under the mattress ( various) since 1980. I believe I bought in at the top at the time. How much are they worth and where should I go. Perth Mint is where I bought them from. When I bought them I thought they would protect me against the Indonesians and other imaginary threats. From memory I paid $560 dpo for them.

Garpal


----------



## chops_a_must

Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> Dear chops,
> 
> Can you bring me up to speed with Gold. I bought x3  bars 5oz I believe and hav e had them under the mattress ( various) since 1980. I believe I bought in at the top at the time. How much are they worth and where should I go. Perth Mint is where I bought them from. When I bought them I thought they would protect me against the Indonesians and other imaginary threats. From memory I paid $560 dpo for them.
> 
> Garpal



I did a similar thing. And then I misplaced the gold outside the channel 7 studios sometime. I never did find out what happened to that gold...

Perth Mint is still probably the best place to go... or at least contact, as they do most of the gold dealing in Australia. Don't know much about it though...

This might help:
http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/depository/depository_layout.asp?url=3

Might just be best to contact someone there though.

Cheers.


----------



## Dr Doom

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I did a similar thing. And then I misplaced the gold outside the channel 7 studios sometime. I never did find out what happened to that gold...
> 
> Perth Mint is still probably the best place to go... or at least contact, as they do most of the gold dealing in Australia. Don't know much about it though...
> 
> This might help:
> http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/depository/depository_layout.asp?url=3
> 
> Might just be best to contact someone there though.
> 
> Cheers.




Chops
Missplaced?? Which channel 7?. Load up my trusty metal detector and get a prospecting permit from Mr Stokes?. Or is that where he made his millions, and you have to resort to hanging out in here with the riff raff  

GG, You could also try
http://www.ausbullion.com.au/bullion.html


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I did a similar thing. And then I misplaced the gold outside the channel 7 studios sometime. I never did find out what happened to that gold...
> 
> 
> Cheers.




   Watch out chops, I hear Hamburger Bob hangs out around here...   :bloated:


----------



## chops_a_must

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Chops
> Missplaced?? Which channel 7?. Load up my trusty metal detector and get a prospecting permit from Mr Stokes?. Or is that where he made his millions, and you have to resort to hanging out in here with the riff raff



Geez... I'm surprised no-one got my reference to the Mint Swindle here. Lol! Disappointing.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Ray and Pete dont live too far from me, Im on west coast highway and their just down the road at the marmion lights on Karrinyup Rd, Trigg.

Nice crew who make beautiful raw edge jarrah table tops now  .

Even if they did rip off the gold  , they got pulled over the wringer by big brother......big time!.


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Geez... I'm surprised no-one got my reference to the Mint Swindle here. Lol! Disappointing.




   Geez... I'm surprised no-one got my reference to Hamburger Bob here. Lol! Disappointing.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Kauri said:
			
		

> Geez... I'm surprised no-one got my reference to Hamburger Bob here. Lol! Disappointing.




Hamburger Bob hung out at the Orabanda (  )  until he got shot by a silver haired dude who ate an orange.....avoiding the fuzz .......but his orange couldnt avoid a bomb<....all as logical as the CIB brief that pinged the Brothers.

Ahhhhhh....now thats Karma , Id rather be missing a finger than be blown up


----------



## Sean K

I like that $660 was tested over the past 2 days and the POG bounced off. Looks positive. Doesn't look to be much resistance until $720. 
Wavers, Could this be considered to be a wave 3 upleg?


----------



## annalivia

There have been increasing reports over the past few months that central banks from the United Arab Emirates to Switzerland have shifted reserves away from the US dollar into Euros. If the Euro really was emerging as the currency of choice, would we not expect to see Euro strength relative to gold too?
However,  this is certainly not the case. Similar to the US dollar gold chart on the EURO gold chart, the  yellow metal recently broke upwards from a triangular trading range, which is bullish. While the euro has strengthened against most other fiat (paper) currencies, this has certainly not been the case with gold - the world's ultimate 'hard' currency. 
This tells us that gold's strength is not just a US dollar story. In recent years, the trend has been for countries to achieve competitiveness by weakening their currency rather than engineer long lasting structural change. Subtle ongoing currency depreciation has resulted. This has led to upward momentum in the gold price and I believe this will only accelerate in the year ahead. My tip is for gold to hit the $1000 US mark some time this year.

annalivia


----------



## greggy

kennas said:
			
		

> I like that $660 was tested over the past 2 days and the POG bounced off. Looks positive. Doesn't look to be much resistance until $720.
> Wavers, Could this be considered to be a wave 3 upleg?



Hi Kennas,

Hope so. The knockers (so called "analysts") are still out there trying to push the price down, but I still feel that gold will continue to have a strong year.  I would like to see hit $1,000 this year at least in $A.  That would give the gold sector a nice push forward.
DYOR


----------



## BREND

I had heard from my client who is a fund manager at China, said China government has already bought gold secretly for a while already.

I had bought gold ETF when gold was trading at USD590. I also believe that gold will hit USD1000, it is only a matter of time.


----------



## GreatPig

John Mauldin's latest article discusses gold.

You may need to register to read it, but I think it's worth subscribing to his articles anyway.

GP


----------



## redandgreen

very interesting insights into where gold is headed
thx


----------



## chops_a_must

annalivia said:
			
		

> There have been increasing reports over the past few months that central banks from the United Arab Emirates to Switzerland have shifted reserves away from the US dollar into Euros. If the Euro really was emerging as the currency of choice, would we not expect to see Euro strength relative to gold too?
> However,  this is certainly not the case. Similar to the US dollar gold chart on the EURO gold chart, the  yellow metal recently broke upwards from a triangular trading range, which is bullish. While the euro has strengthened against most other fiat (paper) currencies, this has certainly not been the case with gold - the world's ultimate 'hard' currency.
> This tells us that gold's strength is not just a US dollar story. In recent years, the trend has been for countries to achieve competitiveness by weakening their currency rather than engineer long lasting structural change. Subtle ongoing currency depreciation has resulted. This has led to upward momentum in the gold price and I believe this will only accelerate in the year ahead. My tip is for gold to hit the $1000 US mark some time this year.





			
				BREND said:
			
		

> I had heard from my client who is a fund manager at China, said China government has already bought gold secretly for a while already.
> 
> I had bought gold ETF when gold was trading at USD590. I also believe that gold will hit USD1000, it is only a matter of time.



We often hear about gold being priced according to the risk of inflation especially in the US. Yet, the US economy is having less and less impact on the world economy, and the difference is being replaced by Asia, especially China. But if the Yuan is not being allowed to move freely and there is massive concerns for inflation in China, why would there not be a huge upward pressure on the gold price?


----------



## albi000

For a technical analysis of gold, check out the post from Alpha Trends, Wallstrip and Kevins Market blog who are all bullish on gold.


----------



## CanOz

Anybody want to comment on what happened to the gold price last night or the recent decline in general, seems a bit steep for a typical retracement?


----------



## Dr Doom

CanOz said:
			
		

> Anybody want to comment on what happened to the gold price last night or the recent decline in general, seems a bit steep for a typical retracement?




A number of factors- 

Oil was sold off after Iran indicated a softer stance about nuclear ambitions
US dollar was up
Some Fed governor provided re-assurance about the economy blah blah...

The "sell off" was about average, within the recent range of about $12-$13 for major corrections and $6 for minor. Only thing to watch out for now short term is a general market correction which could drag gold down with it, but gold is also entering the 'traditional' bull months up to May so this pullback is healthy for re-entry to some stocks like LHG. I think the first signs of the Dow starting to correct meaningfully could signal a big shift into gold by spec funds, which would see the resumption of the second wave in this secular gold bull.


----------



## CanOz

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> A number of factors-
> 
> Oil was sold off after Iran indicated a softer stance about nuclear ambitions
> US dollar was up
> Some Fed governor provided re-assurance about the economy blah blah...
> 
> The "sell off" was about average, within the recent range of about $12-$13 for major corrections and $6 for minor. Only thing to watch out for now short term is a general market correction which could drag gold down with it, but gold is also entering the 'traditional' bull months up to May so this pullback is healthy for re-entry to some stocks like LHG. I think the first signs of the Dow starting to correct meaningfully could signal a big shift into gold by spec funds, which would see the resumption of the second wave in this secular gold bull.




Cool, thanks DOOM...been watching EQI for an entry point and the POG isn't setting things up very well today.

Cheers,


----------



## Dr Doom

CanOz said:
			
		

> Cool, thanks DOOM...been watching EQI for an entry point and the POG isn't setting things up very well today.
> 
> Cheers,



Yes, so have I, looks like it's trying to form a daily double bottom from the Jan low, might wait a little bit longer though, see where it stabilises on the weekly chart? $1.50 looks like a solid base. Thinly traded too


----------



## arsnove

The current wave count is wave 4 and pending for wave 5 to be unfold. If the price hit 678.5, you will witness a big jump in price going beyond 740. If you are using Elliot Wave then you will know what I am talking about. I am trying to copy and paste my Metastock chart into this chat forum but without success. I am in the mid of updating my website and once it's completed I will keep you posted. Are you using technical analysis? 

andy.chew@wealthraider.com


----------



## Dr Doom

I think chickens 'capper' is hard at work with the pog, won't let it get past that magical $675, for they probably know it is a technical 'break out point' and indicator to go long again. A bit of blood letting for the market today & the gold stocks didn't escape, only widening the gap between a gold price that hasn't broken down and gold stocks that have. Which one is going to play catch up?. A big night tonight for all markets for if the Dow corrects for whatever reason it may give further momentum to today's sell-off?. Still waiting to get back in.


----------



## bean

Hopefully golden opportunities will come to those who wait


----------



## Kauri

Possibly way off track, but how I see gold panning out currently. Untill it breaks/fails at (B) or (2) I guess anything is possible.


----------



## Naif

hello ppl..

i expect that the gold will not go below 640 , and i expect that we will see the gold in march reach 700 ..

if you look to the cot chart, you will see that the commercials and large speculators have increased their long positions for the last two weeks ..

good luck


----------



## Jadefox

"Just looked at the screen. Is this a bear squeeze or has a nuke gone off somewhere??"

- from Kitco Gold forum


----------



## Dr Doom

Lift off maybe, or too high too fast?


----------



## Sean K

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Lift off maybe, or too high too fast?



This certainly confirms $660 ish as very good support. Related to LHG, I'd expect it to bounce well off it's $3.25 support level as well. Maybe back to $3.40 ish, which looks to be some short term resistance.


----------



## CanOz

kennas said:
			
		

> This certainly confirms $660 ish as very good support. Related to LHG, I'd expect it to bounce well off it's $3.25 support level as well. Maybe back to $3.40 ish, which looks to be some short term resistance.




This should put EQI up through 1.56 today. Just curious as to why LHG is talked about, its bloody expensive as a share price with a forward PE of like 55? Thier operation is expensive and is affected by diesel prices etc....

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:
			
		

> This should put EQI up through 1.56 today. Just curious as to why LHG is talked about, its bloody expensive as a share price with a forward PE of like 55? Thier operation is expensive and is affected by diesel prices etc....
> 
> Cheers,



I've mentioned it because it seems to follow POG. Yes, crazy pe there, but I have various pe's of this. Big Charts gives it a pe of 400 ish.   

Sorry for mentioning a specific stock here, it should have gone in it's own thread.   

Bad kennas!  :rocketwho


----------



## CanOz

kennas said:
			
		

> I've mentioned it because it seems to follow POG. Yes, crazy pe there, but I have various pe's of this. Big Charts gives it a pe of 400 ish.
> 
> Sorry for mentioning a specific stock here, it should have gone in it's own thread.
> 
> Bad kennas!  :rocketwho




You should be able to mention gold stocks surely...what about GOLD, is tracks the POG very well.

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:
			
		

> You should be able to mention gold stocks surely...
> Cheers,



Well, it could be seen to be ramping. I own LHG, so perhaps I was.   




			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> what about GOLD, is tracks the POG very well.



 Gold!


----------



## CanOz

kennas said:
			
		

> Well, it could be seen to be ramping. I own LHG, so perhaps I was.
> 
> 
> Gold!




Seriously, type in GOLD on bigcharts or etrade...its a tracking stock.  

Cheers,


----------



## Jadefox

See what happened to the shorts in the gold market last night:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-zlQ-Hui44

(courtesy - Jim Sinclair's website)


----------



## chops_a_must

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> I think chickens 'capper' is hard at work with the pog, won't let it get past that magical $675, for they probably know it is a technical 'break out point' and indicator to go long again. A bit of blood letting for the market today & the gold stocks didn't escape, only widening the gap between a gold price that hasn't broken down and gold stocks that have. Which one is going to play catch up?. A big night tonight for all markets for if the Dow corrects for whatever reason it may give further momentum to today's sell-off?. Still waiting to get back in.



Oh Mr. Doom. I hope you didn't miss out on this latest move, as I have benefitted muchly from your commentary here.

Sincerely,
Chops.


----------



## Sean K

The Iranian nuke thing looks to be pushing POG now. What we have seen in the past few weeks is an alignment of the three main factors supporting POG appreciation: $US weakness, POO increase, and geopolitical instability.

No more resistance until all time highs IMO. Well, maybe a tiny bit around $700, but will probably just pause to wave as it goes past. Obviously, just a probability.   

Unhedged goldies should do very well.


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:
			
		

> Unhedged goldies should do very well.



Any favourite pics Kennas?

I have my eyes on NEM and TRY. I would like to see NEM go strongly through 6.20 before I get in though. Whereas TRY may break out from its tight trading range on an increasing gold price.


----------



## Sean K

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Any favourite pics Kennas?
> 
> I have my eyes on NEM and TRY. I would like to see NEM go strongly through 6.20 before I get in though. Whereas TRY may break out from its tight trading range on an increasing gold price.



Not following TRY but have NEM on the radar. See new NEM thread.

Holding a few gold stocks, but none I could say would be a standout pick. BSG, NCM, LHG, LRL, KMN, IRN. See threads for more info. Concerned about NCM at the moment. Further downgrades will smash it, but I'm still holding a few for speccie takeover possibility.


----------



## GreatPig

You could also just go for the gold itself, either with the GOLD stock or the Goldcorp call warrant ZAUWBA.

I'm holding a moderate parcel of the latter, and will probably increase it if the price starts heading up further. The spread and holding costs are a little rough though.

GP


----------



## chops_a_must

GreatPig said:
			
		

> You could also just go for the gold itself, either with the GOLD stock or the Goldcorp call warrant ZAUWBA.



Yes, I'd say a lot of those coin collectors will be laughing in the not too distant future.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

GreatPig said:
			
		

> You could also just go for the gold itself, either with the GOLD stock or the Goldcorp call warrant ZAUWBA.
> 
> I'm holding a moderate parcel of the latter, and will probably increase it if the price starts heading up further. The spread and holding costs are a little rough though.
> 
> GP




Dear GreatPig,

I hold gold as bars and coins.

Did you buy ZAUWBA on market or through Goldcorp?

How do the holding costs affect you?

I'm considering buying ZAUWBA.

Is this warrant liquid, can it be bought and sold easily?

Sorry for the inquisition. Feel free not to answer.

Garpal


----------



## GreatPig

Garpal,

I bought ZAUWBA on the market. It's not liquid in the sense of having a lot of bids and offers, with the MM's entries often being the only ones, but they always seem to have plenty of volume available so it's always easy to buy and sell (I don't watch the warrant a lot, but I don't think I've ever seen them not making a market yet). However, their spread is usually quite wide, and if you compare the price to the GOLD stock, it's typically a bit higher. GOLD seems to have a larger number of participants, but the volumes can be quite low with large price gaps at times as well.

If you read the warrant details, you'll see it talks about some holding cost being built into the spread, and at the end of December each year they directly extract that holding cost from those who are still holding. They've supposedly worked this out somehow though so that there's no advantage in not holding on that date. I haven't studied the exact details, but I just work on the basis that there is a holding cost that I'm paying even if I can't directly see it.

The reason I use the warrants rather than certificates or bullion is because it's much quicker and easier to buy and sell. I can do it immediately through my online broker just the same as any other warrant or share. They're not real good for short-term trading though as there's no leverage. Coins are generally sold at a significant premium to the gold value in them, and I don't know if that premium would still be there if you tried to on-sell them.

If I was going to go for actual gold at all, I'd probably go for the unallocated bullion, as the holding costs are least. Generally I don't want to have to store it myself, but in case of total global meltdown , I'd keep some small bars rather than coins. My wife can buy them from Asian jewellery stores though at pretty-much market value.

GP


----------



## Dr Doom

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Oh Mr. Doom. I hope you didn't miss out on this latest move, as I have benefitted muchly from your commentary here.
> 
> Sincerely,
> Chops.




Thanks chops. No, I'm still over exposed to gold (stocks) but getting a bit concerned with the market generally, and what impact a correction could have on gold stocks, as every time there has been a correction gold stocks don't escape, despite the favourable fundamentals. I'm sure you'll agree we've had a stellar run in the XJO, but it will be interesting in the short term after all the reporting & ex div dates are out of the way, then long term from super changes in July. That's my plan anyway. I'm not in any rush so just waiting patiently. 

Some 'mainstream' economists are starting to question whether gold trades in a free market or is being manipulated by central banks, as per this article.

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=3905 

Of particular interest is the expansion of money supply figures quoted. 

"In the meantime, central banks across the world have allowed money supply to balloon substantially. Russell notes year-on-year measures show M3 increasing by 13% in Australia, 9.3% in the Eurozone, 13% in Britain, 10.3% in Korea, and 10.7% in the US. M2 is up in China by 16% and in Russia by 45%. In other words, fiat currencies are in abundant supply."

How long can the central banks keep a lid on (the real value of) inflation (or cap the gold price), using interest rates as the broad & blunt financial sword?. To see the end game in action you only have to look at Japan to see what happens to a fully consumed society eg zero interest rates feeding global liquidity (private equity) as well as individual country fiat money supply expansion.

The next question is how much of this money is actually contributing to speculative gold buying or trading, and will it's extraction due to margin calls elsewhere have a negative impact?. Interesting times ahead. 

Remember, stage 3 of the secular gold bull hasn't started yet! eg general public mania.


----------



## Naif

Naif said:
			
		

> hello ppl..
> 
> i expect that the gold will not go below 640 , and i expect that we will see the gold in march reach 700 ..
> 
> if you look to the cot chart, you will see that the commercials and large speculators have increased their long positions for the last two weeks ..
> 
> good luck




hi again...
if we look to the cot we see an increase for the long positions for the large speculators in the last 5 weeks, and the open intrest is still rising since 30 jan , which means that we should see the gold above 700, also because of the weather the oil is in rise and the situation between usa and iran..
and if we look again to the cot chart and see how the commercials is dealing with the gold we will see that they have decreased their long positions from 127 to 105 and now they increased it to 118 which means they expect that the gold will fall from 700 - 725 to below 690 and then they will buy again..

lets see what gonna happen

cheers


----------



## Dutchy3

Thanks Naif

I'm heavy LONG gold at this point.

TA telling me that BGF LHG SP should put on weight in the immediate future.

If you don't mind, where did your list of open positions come from?


----------



## Naif

hi dutchy

you can see the data of the cot from this website:
http://www.softwarenorth.com/trading/commitmentscurrent/
and then  click on GC but it will give you the data only for futures but if you subscribe with this website (i think it cost 30 us dollar) you will be able to see the data for the futures and the options..


----------



## Dutchy3

ta naif ... very interesting


----------



## Dr Doom

The real driver of gold recently?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The city of Guangzhou in south China is buying gold like crazy this Spring Festival holiday, with a record nearly 8 tons in the form of jewelry, gold bars, coins and ornaments needed to meet the demand.

A local newspaper reported the price for gold continued its upward trend on the international market, hitting a 26-year high at 670 US dollars an ounce recently. But, this is apparently not enough to curb the increasing enthusiasm among consumers in Guangzhou to purchase the precious metal.

The report said jewelry stores in Guangzhou have been filled with people since the Spring Festival holiday began last Sunday. Gold bars and golden goods designed especially for the festival are the most popular in shops. As of Thursday, people have bought a total of 7.82 tons of gold in the city, breaking the record of 7.78 tons set in 2002. According to calculations, this volume could cover 100 square meters.

Some consumers believe golden merchandise is a good investment, while others hope for good fortune by wearing golden accessories.

Gold is also important as people look towards the marriage and baby booms expected for 2007.

However, experts have warned consumers that the Spring Festival holiday is not a good time to purchase the precious metal, as its price is much higher than usual. Furthermore, as the price for gold may recoil after the holiday period, people may then be able to purchase golden goods recommended by authorities on the market for much cheaper.


----------



## lamborghini

To  me, Gold is the way to go in the next 0-5 years!
1) Soaring U.S. Deficit is putting pressure on US. Dollar (that just getting worse) - Good for gold though.
2) Gold Jewelry demand increasing in China, India, Japan (poulation! population!)
3) Many Governments are increasing their Gold Reserves (Less gold in the market)
Many more reasons of course,

......How do we best capatlise on Gold? Buy direct, buy gold stocks? 

Q:
Can anyone tell me what ASX Gold stocks are best value or looking good besides LHG?

I like the look of OGD's Chart but don't hear much about them.


----------



## BREND

Market has a lot of reasonings as to why gold price had rallied, ie rise in oil price, rise in inflation etc. But in my judgement, all these are just noise. The main factor for the rally in gold is weakening of USD. As long as US Treasury does not have a solution for their huge budget deficit, I would continue to hold on to my gold ETFs.


----------



## Nicks

lamborghini said:
			
		

> To  me, Gold is the way to go in the next 0-5 years!
> 1) Soaring U.S. Deficit is putting pressure on US. Dollar (that just getting worse) - Good for gold though.
> 2) Gold Jewelry demand increasing in China, India, Japan (poulation! population!)
> 3) Many Governments are increasing their Gold Reserves (Less gold in the market)
> Many more reasons of course,
> 
> ......How do we best capatlise on Gold? Buy direct, buy gold stocks?
> 
> Q:
> Can anyone tell me what ASX Gold stocks are best value or looking good besides LHG?
> 
> I like the look of OGD's Chart but don't hear much about them.




US$1000 within 12 months.

1. Agreed
2. Agreed
3. Agreed

A: Avoca Resources, AVO. Check them out and check out the AVO thread.


----------



## Dr Doom

My view is that the core drivers of gold is monetary inflation by central banks, followed by geopolitical risks, followed by jewelery consumption. While ever all 3 are fundamentally increasing and supply decreasing then gold will continue to appreciate against all fiat currencies, and is probably still behind the curve as far as fair value goes so still has some catching up to do, just don't know what the catalyst will be to get it past the (inflation adjusted) high over $2k. As per previous posts, it has clearly broken to the upside for a continuation of the secular bull, though may have a slight pull back in the short term?


----------



## Jadefox

The US Dollar Index looks like it has put in a lower high. Second area of support broken  - good for gold.


----------



## Sean K

Gold coming off tonight. Profit takers cashing in.


----------



## Jadefox

Resource stocks being sold off heavily in London tonight (BHP down 5 %) - gold and silver being dragged down with them.
It won't be pretty on the ASX tomorrow.


----------



## Jadefox

Comments from Kitco forum:

"Shanghai market takes a 8 percent dump, we should feel it here today"

"The dollar's well down this AM (USDX 83.65) so it naturally follows that
gold would be down too....yeah, right. This is a full on Central Bank attack.
My guess. $700 has them worried.

For the bugs a buying opportunity. Don't forget to thank 'em for the discount."


----------



## Dr Doom

This one looks like it has legs, but could provide the last great entry for gold & gold stocks after the dust settles. Still sitting on the sidelines in cash and shorts.


----------



## Dr Doom

Briliant recovery - currency of last resort?


----------



## wayneL

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Briliant recovery - currency of last resort?




My futures broker is doing well from me today... April Gold down to~680 again


----------



## Dr Doom

Woops, jumped the gun there a bit. Something fishy going on in the NY Access market. They tried to beat it while it was down but has bounced off support. Gold getting caught up in the moment but only gives us another entry point for gold or gold stocks. Happy hunting


----------



## rico01

A collapse in the chinese market   
   Will they turn around now and buy gold as a safehaven?
   I,d like it too anyway!!!


----------



## chops_a_must

rico01 said:
			
		

> A collapse in the chinese market
> Will they turn around now and buy gold as a safehaven?
> I,d like it too anyway!!!



You might find that the chinese might start buying gold rather than putting it into the stock market...


----------



## Jadefox

That was a sly move - resorting to after hours to force it down.
Dr Doom - what do you make of it?
It's making a confirmed gold bug out of me!


----------



## Dr Doom

Jadefox said:
			
		

> That was a sly move - resorting to after hours to force it down.
> Dr Doom - what do you make of it?
> It's making a confirmed gold bug out of me!




Jadefox, it just seems very odd. There was the initial sell-off along with equities etc, then a solid reversal back above where it started the session then bang, straight down at the start of NY Access market. I'm not a pro trader or anything so I can't give a plausible explanation for it, but it maybe gives credence to the conspiracy theory that the market is not being allowed to form it's own level due to manipulation. What you can bank on though is that after any of these 're-tracements' down, there is a sure & steady re-action back up. I've gone long again today.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MARKET TALK: Gold May Snap Back, Target $715 Area -Analyst
Feb 28, 2007 - 10:39:44 HKT
Dow Jones Newswires

Big gold price drop not gold-specific but simply due to fact "everything was sold down" yesterday, says John Mesrobian, president of Constantinople Advisors; thinks recovery "could come quickly" and projects gold will rise to $715-$730/oz over next 30 days.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


----------



## Naif

Naif said:
			
		

> hi again...
> if we look to the cot we see an increase for the long positions for the large speculators in the last 5 weeks, and the open intrest is still rising since 30 jan , which means that we should see the gold above 700, also because of the weather the oil is in rise and the situation between usa and iran..
> and if we look again to the cot chart and see how the commercials is dealing with the gold we will see that they have decreased their long positions from 127 to 105 and now they increased it to 118 which means they expect that the gold will fall from 700 - 725 to below 690 and then they will buy again..
> 
> lets see what gonna happen
> 
> cheers




Dr Doom , I totaly agree with the market talk that the gold will rise to 715 level.. 
as i have said in my previous replies that the gold should go to 700-725 level and then fall below 690 .. and then will rise again , and this fridays when the new data will come out for the COT , i expect that the large speculators will decrease their long positions.. 

they always say don`t follow the cot data because it doesn`t give the truth about the movement of the price, and from my experince the cot is 100% true, we should just learn how to analyze it correctly and with technical analysis you will be able to pick the best price to buy or sell..


----------



## Jadefox

Hi Naif,

How did you work out those price levels using the COT data?


----------



## Bush Trader

This may be of interest!

Gold Bugs Unconcerned

*Source: FN Arena News - February 28 2007 * 
By Greg Peel

When asked on Monday what he thought would happen to gold if the US equity market broke down, veteran gold trader and CEO of the Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation, Jim Sinclair, suggested the sellers would come in.
“Quite quickly thereafter and most certainly when the US dollar also gets hit gold will steady” Sinclair suggested, before adding that the next move would be to the heavens.
Gold pundit Peter Grandich, of The Grandich Letter, noted that gold had been “quite overbought” on Comex (futures exchange) by investment funds. It was no surprise therefore that gold was hit hard, but the bounce off the US$660/oz low was a “valiant comeback”.

Grandich welcomes such corrections, and would not yet be surprised if US$650/oz was seen again. But ultimately Grandich sees the gold price in four figures. He also points out that market carnage such as was experienced last night used to spark a flight into US dollars, but this was not the case in any magnitude. The US dollar is “terminally ill”, says Grandich.
There is no doubt that almost every analyst in Australia is bullish gold, if not quite so stridently as our gold bugs above. We have experienced such shake-outs of wobbly longs before, and there is nothing to suggest views will change overnight.

A less hyperbolic Neal R. Ryan, of US coin dealer Blanchard & Co, had been forecasting a few weeks ago “the end of easy money” available from the yen carry trade. This has now taken its toll on the Chinese stock market. Ryan cites a number of reasons why this is good for precious metals.
Firstly, he believes that a significant correction in US equities will put pressure on Fed chairman Bernanke to follow up on his recent comments that inflation is under control, and cut rates. Ryan suggests that Bernanke, and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, “don't want to be at the helm of the economy while it spirals down the tube”. A rate cut would be a big positive for precious metals.

Secondly, the euro has become very popular and the yen is finally beginning to strengthen. Moreover, the Chinese may yet raise rates as part of the government’s economy-slowing package. This would see more weakness in the US dollar. “The dollar is cracking”, says Ryan.
Thirdly, investors will simply shift into precious metals to get away from volatile markets elsewhere, Ryan suggests.

It is notable that gold didn’t really tank last night until after the official close, when EFT custodians dumped the physical required to cover investor selling in the listed products. They would have sold into a thinner market. It is also notable that recent reports of Chinese retail buying over the New Year period were adding impetus to the gold price. A stock market collapse – if you can call it that – may well put at least a temporary halt on such enthusiasm. Ryan also notes, however, that the strongest season for precious metal investing is as yet a month away.
âœLoad up”, say Ryan.


----------



## Dr Doom

Nice post Bushy. Explains a few things. 

This is what I predicted here over the last few weeks, waiting for the general correction and dragging gold stocks with it. See how gold stocks were sold off yesterday and the gold price is off probably $15, hardly a crash. Price swings of $20 a session will become commonplace from now on.

This is eerily close to what happened in 1929, in that the initial stages of the general market correction dragged gold down with it but eventually rebounded strongly. The big problem will be how much (short term) damage will be done by those who are exposed to other intruments as well as gold, & need to liquidate profitable (gold) positions in order to pay margin calls etc

When all is said & done, gold will be the store of wealth of choice when the irresponsibly administered fiat money experiment turns sour. 

Another thing to ponder - the total market cap of all the gold stocks combined is equal to probably 2 or 3 of the DOW component companies, so if suddenly everyone wants out and a flight to safety ensues, a gold price of $700 will seem like a bargain.

History won't be kind to Greenspan, but he can always lay the blaim on the incumbent at the time, helicopter Ben.


----------



## Naif

hi jadefox..

you have to identify resistance and support levels viatechnical analysis, and watch the cot data, cot data is options and future contracts and the data of this week when it come out and the large speculators decrease their long positions it doesn`t mean that next week the gold will but it will be affected later..


----------



## Jadefox

Thanks Naif,

- I'm OK with the technical analysis and understand the COT data but would you mind running run me through an example? Still unclear as to how you establish likely support/resistance levels based on the data.

Thanks


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> .
> 
> History won't be kind to Greenspan, but he can always lay the blaim on the incumbent at the time, helicopter Ben.




Not a fan of Benny Boy I take it


----------



## Dr Doom

Hi YT,

Well I think he does his best, knowing he is backed by an unlimited dollar making machine, which will be good for gold and gold companies. 

The market corrected over 400 points and this is his reply - 

""*If* the housing sector begins to stabilize and *if* some of the inventory corrections that are still going on in manufacturing begin to be completed there's a *reasonable* possibility that we'll see strengthening of the economy sometime during the middle of the year," he said."

These Fed people always speak in roundabout ways, so you can interpret their remarks any way you like, but he's clearly saying to me 'if the housing downturn keeps going then we're in for a recession'.

At least Greenspan has publicly stated what many are privatly thinking, that a recession is a real possibility. Forewarned is forearmed.

DD


----------



## petervan

Interesting article on KITCO BASE METALS called The big sell off by Kenneth j Gerbino.I am not computer savvy and dont no how to put it in this thread but interesting reading for gold buffs.


----------



## Sean K

petervan said:
			
		

> Interesting article on KITCO BASE METALS called The big sell off by Kenneth j Gerbino.I am not computer savvy and dont no how to put it in this thread but interesting reading for gold buffs.



Just copy the URL address and paste it in.   

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Gerbino/feb282007.html


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Touche.


<Quote>

 "If the mainland Chinese are bidding stocks to 45 times earnings, it is an indication of how high they will eventually bid up gold mining companies in New York and Toronto when exchange controls are lifted. As Doug Casey likes to say; “it will be like Hoover Dam going through a garden hose.”


----------



## Sean K

Gold holding well at the moment. Respected 660 support which is nice. Will be interesting to see NY open. Fat Profits are claiming $1000 oz this year. While I would like to see that, general market correction will also bring goldies down I feel.


----------



## petervan

Thanks Kennas for the education.Don,t know what rabbit the U.S is going to pull out the hat to keep U.S dollar strong and gold down.Biggest drop in new housing in 13 years.Interest rates won,t be going up there.


----------



## Kimosabi

An interesting observation, The Gold Price is tracking almost identical to the Dow


----------



## Sean K

Still respecting 660 support. It's not _potentially_ going down until that is clearly   broken.


----------



## greggy

kennas said:
			
		

> Still respecting 660 support. It's not _potentially_ going down until that is clearly   broken.



Hi Kennas,

With all the doom and gloom going around I don't think that gold will simply fall over.  Its just having a minor correction before going on to better things.  Its amazing how fickle some traders are, especially the newbies.  Some are just wanting to get out at any price.  The same newbies last week were probably betting on a continued strong run. Patience is needed here and its best to leave the emotion out of it.  
DYOR


----------



## Kimosabi

The most interesting thing with ASX:GOLD is the lack of sellers.


----------



## Goldbug

Yes... there is a lot of fear out there but i'm still long on gold. Patience is the best bet at this correctional time. As i write it has pulled back over the 660 mark. We'll see what sort of action happens over night.

Good luck to all gold investers......Stay strong


----------



## GreatPig

Well this is the Chinese golden year of the pig, so gold is perfect for me now 

(and I really am a pig too, although that's coincidental and had nothing to do with the selection of this screen name).

GP


----------



## Goldbug

It looks bullish to me....any thoughts!


----------



## clowboy

Kimosabi said:
			
		

> The most interesting thing with ASX:GOLD is the lack of sellers.





Theres always been a lack of sellers


----------



## CanOz

Goldbug said:
			
		

> It looks bullish to me....any thoughts!




Your wave 2, goes below the start of wave 1?


----------



## Kauri

Gold taking it a little....


----------



## Kimosabi

Can anyone explain this Intraday dip in Gold today.  A $9 dollar (10%) drop appears to be pretty significant


----------



## wayneL

Marc Faber (Dr Doom) said this would happen when the indices tank and implied buying with ears pinned back at around 600-610.


----------



## Dr Doom

Kimosabi I wouldn't take any notice of an intraday chart of GOLD, there is very little turnover.

It's not a coincidence I have chosen my username as such. Dr Faber's prediction so far is spot on, see here 

Also, apparently the Plunge Protection Team is now known as the Presidents Working Party. Let's see if they can pull some rabbits out of their collective, well financed hats?.


As for gold, here is one explanation - *liquidity crisis in other markets* - 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
By Chris Laird 
March 02, 2007


www.prudentsquirrel.com



This week, gold sold off along with the general financial markets. The reason is that funds/investors had been playing the Yen carry trade for a long time, and the Yen strengthened during the Chinese stock crash. Then, funds/etc, having to cover margins sold their most liquid and profitable positions to cover margins. That is hitting gold, even as markets continue down.

So, the story is that the Yen carry is unwinding, that is causing market liquidations, that is causing gold liquidations now this week. Gold is way down, the US stock market barely stabilized, but is way down, Japan has not stabilized, down 250 or so.

What is happening is market – gold – market sell offs.

The whole thing is a leverage/liquidity issue. As leverage flees financial markets, the Yen strengthens because of the Yen carry, then as more is cleared, the Yen strengthens. Then of course markets sell off more – leading to more market sell offs and Yen strengthening. But this is not only about the Yen carry. Market leverage has built for 5 years to ridiculous levels. Next week or so, we will see hedge fund crises.

Derivatives are now a huge question as well, and with hedge funds and investment banks, there will be emerging gigantic losses. Look for Amaranth to be a toy scenario.

Gold is getting hit because it is a liquid asset to cover margins. This is not fundamentally a gold market sell off it is a liquidity sell off. This is anticipating further financial market sell offs next week. This is market-gold-market sell off this week. The second phase starts next week – the second market sell off phase.

But, the next shoe is due to drop next week – that is – if the US and Japanese PPT teams cannot stem the crisis. Make no bones about it, there is a critical market liquidity crisis right now in all world financial markets. They may or may not stem this.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


----------



## Dr Doom

Naif said:
			
		

> hi dutchy
> 
> you can see the data of the cot from this website:
> http://www.softwarenorth.com/trading/commitmentscurrent/
> and then  click on GC but it will give you the data only for futures but if you subscribe with this website (i think it cost 30 us dollar) you will be able to see the data for the futures and the options..




Hi Naif,
Looks like the commercials were right again!

Also, Granditch analysis here

http://www.grandich.com/docs/alert_03-02-07.pdf

DD


----------



## bean

Wrong... gold is very near a bottom>>> I do not subscribe to his site but on 321 gold >>> there is a person who give coments and has a paying subscription jeff kern... I have when he was free a few years ago. have the data he uses and nearly have his program work a few day ago his system had a run of 1 down then four up >> which has a 70% probability of marking a high with a correction of 10 to 15% lasting 1 or 2 weeks.
If you read his last article on that site, he updates once a month that a longer term index may come into play.
I went back into gold and silver about 7-10 trading days ago but I sold out at profit and losses and I am 100% cash.
I also have speadsheets on the DOW have daily data to 1895 and that is another reason why I am 100% cash
gold silver uraniun >> I drop nearly 10% the other day got part back.
But why hold when I know I can get 10-20% more shares of the same companies than I held.

Investing in gold > maybe you should invest in his site


----------



## Goldbug

CanOz,

Quote:
Your wave 2,goes below the start of wave 1?

In a bullish Elliot Wave movement, the impulsive wave starts at (1) and retracts down to (2). (2) will then advance to (3). (3) retracts to (4) and (4) advances to (5).
Three of the waves (numbers 1, 3 and 5) determine the overall price trend of the security. These three directional waves are separated from one another by two counter-trend interruptions, the waves numbered 2 and 4. 
In a bear market the opposite will happen. (1) will advance to (2) and then retract down to (3) and so on.

Please note that the monthly chart is a major price trend movement not a correctional miner movement to what we witnessed last night.


----------



## Sean K

Goldbug said:
			
		

> CanOz,
> 
> Quote:
> Your wave 2,goes below the start of wave 1?
> 
> In a bullish Elliot Wave movement, the impulsive wave starts at (1) and retracts down to (2). (2) will then advance to (3). (3) retracts to (4) and (4) advances to (5).
> Three of the waves (numbers 1, 3 and 5) determine the overall price trend of the security. These three directional waves are separated from one another by two counter-trend interruptions, the waves numbered 2 and 4.
> In a bear market the opposite will happen. (1) will advance to (2) and then retract down to (3) and so on.



Hmmm, I'm confused.    

I didn't think you started a wave with a number or a letter. I thought the reference was where the wave ended.


----------



## Goldbug

kennas said:
			
		

> Hmmm, I'm confused.
> 
> I didn't think you started a wave with a number or a letter. I thought the reference was where the wave ended.




The numbers are used as a symbol of reference to determine what direction or trend the wave is heading.


----------



## Goldbug

and bearish trend would look like this.
Notice the number directions.
I do need to mention though, EW formulas are based on projections in determining only the trend not the actual price the security will change direction at.


----------



## Sean K

Goldbug said:
			
		

> and bearish trend would look like this.
> Notice the number directions.
> I do need to mention though, EW formulas are based on projections in determining only the trend not the actual price the security will change direction at.



Are you putting those numbers in Goldbug, or is it from another practicioner? I'm fairly new to EW, but I am struggling to see why you have put your waves where they are. Looks pretty random to me.


----------



## wayneL

The biggest problem I see here with the EW counts is trying to shoehorn an impulsive count on a corrective pattern.

Impulses are quite uncommon in long term commodity charts, you are better off looking to corrective patterns... unless an impulse hit you in the face.

There are of course plenty of medium term impulses in the commods at the moment.

Just a comment


----------



## Porper

Goldbug said:
			
		

> and bearish trend would look like this.
> Notice the number directions.
> I do need to mention though, EW formulas are based on projections in determining only the trend not the actual price the security will change direction at.




What teachings are you following Gold Bug ? 

I have never seen counts like yours before, even if you aren't using Fib retracements.

Not saying they are wrong, just alien to me.


----------



## noirua

Gold slides! Monday may see a reversal by gold stocks:  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={F9467C75-1D43-499A-B349-16C878D25E3C}


----------



## bean

I AM A GOLD AND SIVER BUG  -- i AM 100% CASH AS OF FRIDAY.
GOLD HAS NOT BOTTOMED THE MARKET HAS NOT BOTTOMED.
AND EVERYONE IS STILL SO COMPLACEMENT,  THAT TO ME SPELLS CRASH 
 I HOPE I AM RIGHT BECAUSE FOR EXAMPLE BOUGHT MMN FOR ABOUT .31 ABOUT 10 TRADING DAYS AGO SOLD FRIDAY @ .295 A LOSS. 
BUT I WILL NOW PUT BIDS IN @ .25 OR LESS (TAKE EACH DAY AS IT COMES )
I SOLD SOME GOLD STOCK AND WILL ALSO BE PUTTING BIDS IN AT 10-30% LESS THAN THEY ARE NOW.
GOLD AND GOLD STOCK ARE GOING DOWN -- WITH THE MARKET..
IF NO RISE OVERSEAS MARKET MONDAY NIGHT THEN TUESDAY NIGHT  IS GOING TO BE UGLY.
I KNOW THAT GOLD IS GOING DOWN SO I GATHER THE MARKETS WILL BE JOINING IN. 
I ALSO HOPE I AM WRONG, I DO NOT WANT TO SEE PEOPLE LOSE MONEY, BUT LAST WEEK WILL SEEM SMALL BY COMPARISION.


----------



## CanOz

bean said:
			
		

> I AM A GOLD AND SIVER BUG  -- i AM 100% CASH AS OF FRIDAY.
> GOLD HAS NOT BOTTOMED THE MARKET HAS NOT BOTTOMED.
> AND EVERYONE IS STILL SO COMPLACEMENT,  THAT TO ME SPELLS CRASH
> I HOPE I AM RIGHT BECAUSE FOR EXAMPLE BOUGHT MMN FOR ABOUT .31 ABOUT 10 TRADING DAYS AGO SOLD FRIDAY @ .295 A LOSS.
> BUT I WILL NOW PUT BIDS IN @ .25 OR LESS (TAKE EACH DAY AS IT COMES )
> I SOLD SOME GOLD STOCK AND WILL ALSO BE PUTTING BIDS IN AT 10-30% LESS THAN THEY ARE NOW.
> GOLD AND GOLD STOCK ARE GOING DOWN -- WITH THE MARKET..
> IF NO RISE OVERSEAS MARKET MONDAY NIGHT THEN TUESDAY NIGHT  IS GOING TO BE UGLY.
> I KNOW THAT GOLD IS GOING DOWN SO I GATHER THE MARKETS WILL BE JOINING IN.
> I ALSO HOPE I AM WRONG, I DO NOT WANT TO SEE PEOPLE LOSE MONEY, BUT LAST WEEK WILL SEEM SMALL BY COMPARISION.




Gold is getting ugly because of investors liquidating assests to cover losses from the Yen carry trade, correct? Was it on here that i read that or in the AFR?

At some point, buyers should re enter, correct? Where's Doom?


----------



## CanOz

"The carry unwinding" is a part of the reason for gold's decline, said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard. That "will eventually be positive for the market, but it'll sting a bit at first." 
"Combining the need for capital because of margin calls on funds, yen carry unwinding and some relentless selling and shorting from large commercials on the market who realized the precious metals were susceptible to these drops has hurt as well," he said in e-mailed comments. 
"Investors are retreating into cash and hiding until there are some signs that the volatility is dissipating from the market," he said. 

Yeah, thats a good article that noirua posted. Basically says what i read somehwere else too.

So it will eventually be positive for the market. I'm seriously considering buying some "GOLD" stock on the ASX once it bouces.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

kennas said:
			
		

> Are you putting those numbers in Goldbug, or is it from another practicioner? I'm fairly new to EW, but I am struggling to see why you have put your waves where they are. Looks pretty random to me.




Me too guys, from i've learned about EW, this is contrary to say the least. Curious as to where your learning this Goldbug.

Cheers,


----------



## wavepicker

CanOz said:
			
		

> Me too guys, from i've learned about EW, this is contrary to say the least. Curious as to where your learning this Goldbug.
> 
> Cheers,




I totally agree with his comments. In fact liquidated my Gold positions in April last year and have done various trades in the choppy market since the peak, as was execting the pattern of trend that has approximately played out, having a stab as to what it would most likely look like in last June.

 Still  don't think this correction is quite over, with more sideways/downward bias till the 8.5 year cycle bottoms in 2008. Last April when this peaked it was evident that the this market will struggle for 1-2 years until that cycle bottomed.  (I should note that a cycle bottom does not necessarily coincide with a price bottom, but a cycle bottom will most likely keep price stalling and retesting correction lows). What made it more convincing was that we had a completed 5 wave structure to the upside. This was textbook impulse and charted the way it's supposed to be as per what is advised in Elliott Wave Principle-Key To Market Behaviour by Frost and Prechter, using a logscale to when constructing the channeling fro commodities, as they usually have quite long extended 5th wave as buying is more fear based. 



https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23&pp=20

post # 446 & 454




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=28&pp=20 

post #559


----------



## Magdoran

kennas said:
			
		

> Are you putting those numbers in Goldbug, or is it from another practicioner? I'm fairly new to EW, but I am struggling to see why you have put your waves where they are. Looks pretty random to me.






			
				Porper said:
			
		

> What teachings are you following Gold Bug ?
> 
> I have never seen counts like yours before, even if you aren't using Fib retracements.
> 
> Not saying they are wrong, just alien to me.






			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Me too guys, from i've learned about EW, this is contrary to say the least. Curious as to where your learning this Goldbug.
> 
> Cheers,




The charts Goldbug is posting is generated by Hubb’s “Profitsource” which was their answer to “Advanced GET”.  It uses an internally generated Elliott count based on an algorithm in part based on moving averages, and program Elliott Wave rules.

The time and price level marker shown on the charts is known as the “range projector” which was largely developed along the lines of Advanced GET’s “MOB” (Make or break) tool designed to calculate Fibonacci generated price targets from pivot points, and uses a kind of Fibonacci time extension from key pivot points to work out the time element of the projection.

The EW count is a rough computer generated approximation of EW rules, but in many cases cannot replace a gifted human EW practitioner, and the algorithms can’t really identify patterns like ending diagonals and nesting patterns, as well as a host of other finer areas of technical analysis.

The range projector and MOB both work reasonably well if you know how to use them and are reasonably good at T/A, but rely on the limitations of the programming, and are Fibonacci based.

It is interesting that Profitsource sees LHG as bullish, and OXR as bearish… but that’s what a software generated analysis will deliver sometimes.


Hence Goldbug is probably just posting up what Profitsource has generated… is that right GB?  


Regards


Magdoran

P.S.  So Goldbug, are you a practitioner of EW, or just a recent user of the software? (I suspect the latter – if so, you will encounter high levels of scrutiny here, since some of the posters that questioned your count are seasoned practitioners, some probably the best in Australia, so if you recently attended a basic EW course in conjunction with the software, prepare to have your eyes well and truly opened – EW is much much more than this).  Mag.


----------



## Goldbug

Magdoran said:
			
		

> The charts Goldbug is posting is generated by Hubb’s “Profitsource” which was their answer to “Advanced GET”.  It uses an internally generated Elliott count based on an algorithm in part based on moving averages, and program Elliott Wave rules.
> 
> The time and price level marker shown on the charts is known as the “range projector” which was largely developed along the lines of Advanced GET’s “MOB” (Make or break) tool designed to calculate Fibonacci generated price targets from pivot points, and uses a kind of Fibonacci time extension from key pivot points to work out the time element of the projection.
> 
> The EW count is a rough computer generated approximation of EW rules, but in many cases cannot replace a gifted human EW practitioner, and the algorithms can’t really identify patterns like ending diagonals and nesting patterns, as well as a host of other finer areas of technical analysis.
> 
> The range projector and MOB both work reasonably well if you know how to use them and are reasonably good at T/A, but rely on the limitations of the programming, and are Fibonacci based.
> 
> It is interesting that Profitsource sees LHG as bullish, and OXR as bearish… but that’s what a software generated analysis will deliver sometimes.
> 
> 
> Hence Goldbug is probably just posting up what Profitsource has generated… is that right GB?
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran
> 
> P.S.  So Goldbug, are you a practitioner of EW, or just a recent user of the software? (I suspect the latter – if so, you will encounter high levels of scrutiny here, since some of the posters that questioned your count are seasoned practitioners, some probably the best in Australia, so if you recently attended a basic EW course in conjunction with the software, prepare to have your eyes well and truly opened – EW is much much more than this).  Mag.




Yes that is true, I am a user of the software product and an avid learner of EW. I beleive it takes years to be a practitioner.The software has served me well since discovering it 12 months ago. I didn't think it would cause such a response by displaying a chart with my thoughts on where gold was heading. Hence name of thread.

The charts on LHG and OXR does raise a point of discussion and how other people interperate them. Thanks for your veiws.


----------



## CanOz

Goldbug said:
			
		

> Yes that is true, I am a user of the software product and an avid learner of EW. I beleive it takes years to be a practitioner.The software has served me well since discovering it 12 months ago. I didn't think it would cause such a response by displaying a chart with my thoughts on where gold was heading. Hence name of thread.




After reading Wave's and Mag's post i think i see where your coming from now. Interesting to see this perspective on gold.

Cheers,


----------



## Goldbug

CanOz said:
			
		

> After reading Wave's and Mag's post i think i see where your coming from now. Interesting to see this perspective on gold.
> 
> Cheers,




Just a point of observation.

By using the software with the basic rules, the Monthly (major) Chart shows that we are in a wave (3) which: Rule 2 states, wave (3) is never the shortest wave. Also Rule 3 states, wave (4) never enters the price territory of wave (1). This would mean that before we are in a major bear market the price of gold would have to accelerate down to the point of 328.
Wave (3) actually commenced as soon as the price went past (1) 328. 
If gold  bounces back over 732 without to much long-term corrections, then gold will still be in a major wave(3) regardless of what the Daily (minor) chart reads.
The projections down to wave (4) and back up to wave (5) are just that, projections, that the software correlates towards the whole wave principle. I’m actually observing the over all major gold trend that is possibly formulating towards what I base my decisions on. 

Now observe the great “79” crash. History is always a good learning cue. The Gold RSI reading is 92. Then it went into a corrective stage, ABC. I treat the RSI indicator as the thermometer. The ASX back in “87” also hit 92. How many years did it take to recovery?
In May, gold hit 84 RSI, then corrected. In my opinion, that’s why we need corrections so it doesn’t get that high. Who wants another crash?

Thats why I think gold is still long term bullish.


----------



## wavepicker

Goldbug said:
			
		

> Just a point of observation.
> 
> Also Rule 3 states, wave (4) never enters the price territory of wave (1). This would mean that before we are in a major bear market the price of gold would have to accelerate down to the point of 328.
> 
> Thats why I think gold is still long term bullish.




Agreed Goldbug about Gold being in a secular bull.  But I still think it will be caught in a sideways range/downward biased correction for while.

Incindentally, whilst it's true wave 4 cannot overlap with a 1st wave in most markets there are exceptions to this rule and they important ones:

-wave 4 can overlap wave 1 in an "leading diagonal triangle" which is a rare pattern but can sometimes occur as a wave 1 in an impulse and wave A of an ABC correction. When this pattern does occur in a wave 1, the ensuing correction is sharp and deep and usually finds support at the span of the previous wave 2 of one less degree within that leading diagonal triangle. The subdivsions of a leading diagonal triangle are 5 wave  impulses.

- wave 4 can also overlap wave 1 in an Ending Diagonal pattern. These subdivide into 3 wave structures(as opposed to the 5 waves of a leading diagonal triangle). Ending diagonals usually occur in 5th waves where the previous wave 3 moved to far and too fast OR as C waves in an ABC correction. When an Ending Diagonal ends this implies a sharp reversal in the opposite direction to come. Some recent examples are: SP500 just prior the last start of the last correction, the DJIA, EURJPY, stocks: JBM, NAB,ORI,PBL and ZFX just to name a few but there heaps more.

It should be noted that most often, that wave 3's in commodities are NOT the longest wave.  In fact wave 5's 90% of the time in commodities are longest, and this is evident by the long "blowoff" type moves which climax a trend either up or dowm. Why??  Especially in the case of Gold, because the buying is fear based and not hope based. Fear acts faster than greed and hope.  That is why when you get big selloffs in the stocks they move down with higher momentum compared to rising.

Cheers


----------



## Goldbug

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Agreed Goldbug about Gold being in a secular bull.  But I still think it will be caught in a sideways range/downward biased correction for while.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I also agree with you wavepicker, the fund boys are getting too agressive pushing the count past the top of impulse wave(3) in which if not corrected within a week or so, we could be in a sideways/downward ABC corrective waves in the Daily (minor) trend for some time. Hope I'm wrong but the fundamentals don't look strong at the moment.
> 
> Thanks for the added learning.
> 
> Cheers
Click to expand...


----------



## Magdoran

Goldbug said:
			
		

> Yes that is true, I am a user of the software product and an avid learner of EW. I beleive it takes years to be a practitioner.The software has served me well since discovering it 12 months ago. I didn't think it would cause such a response by displaying a chart with my thoughts on where gold was heading. Hence name of thread.
> 
> The charts on LHG and OXR does raise a point of discussion and how other people interperate them. Thanks for your veiws.



Hello Goldbug,


Welcome to ASF by the way, and I’m sure you’ll find plenty of like minds (and some not so like) here, and considerable knowledge to draw from.  You may find it worthwhile to go way back to earlier posts in threads like this to see some of the discussions that have gone in the past, and get a feel for some of the ongoing polemics - you may find some inspiration here.

The response to your charts was caused by confusion about the wave count since quite a few of the ASF community are EW users, and the software’s selected counts conflicted with the dominant schools orthodoxy on EW counts.  Of course this thread is about individual views on Gold, but the interest was in your rationale, hence the responses.

Just out of interest, what is the content of the EW course connected with Profitsource - did you do this?  If so, what did they cover?  Did they go into the history at all?  Do they mention Prechter/Frost these days (or Robert Fisher, or Robert Miner for that matter)?  Do they cover ending diagonals, nesting patterns, various flats, extensions, rules of alternation, etc?

Regarding Profitsource, does it allow custom wave numbering these days, or is it all automated?  I know you can access pre-scanned “type 1/2 buy/sell” “set ups”.  Do you use these?  How configurable is the “range projector” on the current version of Profitsource?  Can you impose a manual count, and adjust the Fibonacci retracements/extensions?

Do you do your own EW independent of the software, and if so, which school do you tend to draw from (examples are Prechter/Frost, Miner, Fisher, there are whole schools of Fibb players out there too…)?  

Sorry to barrage you with so many questions, but it’d be interesting to know what Hubb is up to, and also get a feeling where your technical analysis rationale stems from.  Look forward to seeing more posts from you in the future.


Regards


Magdoran
P.S. In the last posts “P.S.” I was trying to give you the heads up so you know what to expect. Mag


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold Bottom At $490 In 2008?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> From a technical stand point my target is approximately $490 which is 50% of the entire range from the low of $250 to the high of $730.
> 
> This will be a suckers rally and fully retraced. After that rally, volatility and the rate of change of price will slow for the remaider of wave C. once again I think that level will be close to $490, but could go as low as $430 as stated before. All the same, given the whole bull campaign took 6 years, the ensuing bear campaign will not be over soon. My guess it will take a good 2 years, before finishing, and then the secular bull resuming.






			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Cylces are dimensionless. This means that they do not have to line up exactly with a major low in prices. As stated before, the expected low in Oct 2009 may or may not coincide with a lower low of Wave A $542.
> 
> It may just as easily coincide with a higher low after gold bottoms in the current correction. This is why it's important to have other tools as well at our disposal help us making our trading decisions.
> 
> If we are lucky enough to get a lower low that lines up with the bottom of the 8.5yr cycle in 2009, then this maybe a point from which the current secular bull market in gold continues.






			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Still  don't think this correction is quite over, with more sideways/downward bias *till the 8.5 year cycle bottoms in 2008*. Last April when this peaked it was evident that the this market will struggle for 1-2 years until that cycle bottomed.



Hi wavepicker, was hoping you would re-surface. Do you still maintain your downside target for gold at $490? And when is the projected bottom in 2008? Is it in early, mid or late 2008?

You had also stated that a gold rally above $576 would invalidate your EW wave-count. Gold did hit above the $585 mark, so does your EW view still stand? If yes, why?


----------



## Dr Doom

Here's another angle for you EW types - I figure gold is a currency of last resort, so with the yen carry trade coming under pressure (but still has a way to go before it looks like doing damage?), how does a $US/Yen chart look?. As the yen is shaping up to be a currency competitor against gold there could be some more short term weakness in gold until it is realized that Japans economy is only just coming out of 'basket case' status & has yet to prove itself if this current correction takes hold. Cash & daytrades now (still watching LHG though  )


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: Gold Bottom At $490 In 2008?*



			
				BlueDaze said:
			
		

> Hi wavepicker, was hoping you would re-surface. Do you still maintain your downside target for gold at $490? And when is the projected bottom in 2008? Is it in early, mid or late 2008?
> 
> You had also stated that a gold rally above $576 would invalidate your EW wave-count. Gold did hit above the $585 mark, so does your EW view still stand? If yes, why?





Hello Buedaze,


Because the $576.50 level was breached I have had to change the wavecount slightly(Will post my thinking at a later time). Nevertheless the altrenate wave count still points for a continuation of the sideways market for the near future. We had 3 waves down followed by another 3 waves up, this in itself says the market will most likely remain in a range. Not sure about the $490 downside target ATM. Will be a better idea as more market time elapses.

The 8.5 year cycle bottoms next year or 2009. But I need to do some more cycles work to find out roughly when. It must be noted though that a cycle low does not have to coincide with a price low.

Cheers


----------



## Bush Trader

Hi All

Has anyone considered that the implications that the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade could have on the mid term Gold Price?  If these “Hedge Funds” are forced to sell gold positions to cover margin calls, won’t the whole job go pear shaped?  It is my understanding that gold has been purchased by these chaps to cover the currency downside, is this correct?  If it is the case then gold might no longer be a safe haven, or have I got it all wrong?

Your thoughts are appreciated in advance.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bush Trader said:
			
		

> Hi All
> 
> Has anyone considered that the implications that the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade could have on the mid term Gold Price?  If these “Hedge Funds” are forced to sell gold positions to cover margin calls, won’t the whole job go pear shaped?  It is my understanding that gold has been purchased by these chaps to cover the currency downside, is this correct?  If it is the case then gold might no longer be a safe haven, or have I got it all wrong?
> 
> Your thoughts are appreciated in advance.
> 
> Cheers




Bush Trader,
Dr Doom asked the very same question above. If the carry trade unwinds then that could imply that US dollars would have to be sold, which is good for gold. Consider also that the next interest rate for the US is most likely down, which is also good for gold. Not too sure if would be good for Japanese investors though, who may sell gold, but should be offset by the rest of the world demand. Does that make sense??


----------



## Bush Trader

Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Bush Trader,
> Dr Doom asked the very same question above. If the carry trade unwinds then that could imply that US dollars would have to be sold, which is good for gold. Consider also that the next interest rate for the US is most likely down, which is also good for gold. Not too sure if would be good for Japanese investors though, who may sell gold, but should be offset by the rest of the world demand. Does that make sense??





Uncle Festivus: Thanks for your response, it does make sense.

Cheers


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold - Another Corrective Phase*

There is a March 5 article by Bob Hoye that caution of a minor low in gold price after March 9, and continued pressure on gold prices for a total of 6-8 weeks (Apr 9 - Apr 23)

http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Bob+Hoye


----------



## lamborghini

All these thoughts do make sense and the carry trade can have an effect for a while but the dollar will be the main driver.

You may be surprised then that Gold may still go down?

I would put it to you that the Gold price has gone through a bull run and may be overpriced like many stocks?


----------



## Dr Doom

lamborghini said:
			
		

> All these thoughts do make sense and the carry trade can have an effect for a while but the dollar will be the main driver.
> 
> You may be surprised then that Gold may still go down?
> 
> I would put it to you that the Gold price has gone through a bull run and may be overpriced like many stocks?




Yes, true. I'm seeing conflicting signals from the $US and gold stocks, as indicated in the XAU index. Either one is indicating a possible break to the upside? Gold stocks seem to have narrowed the trend range and are bouncing off this new support, while the $US looks the weaker of the two with a defined downtrend, but maybe ready to break out?

Time will tell?


----------



## Dr Doom

Interesting up tick in cot for commercials. Maybe the rebound to continue?.


----------



## Bush Trader

Hi All

This is a great article and I will post it in its entirety for those of you that do not subscribe to FNArena.  It offers a plausible explanation to Gold price resistance we have seen.

Cheers



> Will Gold Ever See US$700/oz Again?
> 
> Source: FN Arena News - March 12 2007
> 
> By Greg Peel
> 
> Investing in gold can be a heartbreaking experience. Day after day, everyone from single-minded gold bugs to respected economic analysts suggest gold must go higher, and that a move back to 2006 peak levels is not out of the question. But since the collapse in May last year, it's been a long and volatile road back.
> 
> Such it was once more just when gold had US$700/oz in its sights prior to the Chinese market scare. However, even before China did its thing gold was finding it difficult to break through the US$690/oz level.
> 
> Respected analyst and gold trader Dennis Gartman noted on March 1st that "despite the fact that we are long term bulls of gold, we find it disconcerting that spot gold has seemingly badly failed in the past two or three days to push upward through $685-690. Whoever, or whatever, the seller is at that level, it has been formidable indeed".
> Gartman knew exactly what conclusion would be drawn in certain circles regarding who that seller might be:
> 
> "We care not who the seller is. GATA may, and certainly GATA may make much of the implications that one might draw from some nefarious, governmental force that is the seller. We care not. That is an argument that neither we nor they shall win. What is important is that gold has failed to advance under circumstances that might otherwise have been considered quite bullish of it."
> 
> Gartman was not surprised by the sell-off which transpired following the Chinese debacle. While collapsing share prices should otherwise be bullish for gold, he remained quite cognisant of the sudden need for liquidation. At US$673/oz Gartman exited his long gold position. At US$637/oz he came back in. As gold has now held above US$647/oz, Gartman has built on the position.
> And he was certainly right about one thing. The Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) committee had no doubt as to who the seller was above US$685/oz in the first place.
> 
> As the gold price rose towards the US$690/oz level, there was a huge build up of open interest in Comex gold futures. What does this imply?
> A futures contract does not exist until one buyer meets one seller at a price. At that point there is an "open interest" of two contracts Ã¢â‚¬“ one short, one long. Thereafter, a new buyer at a higher level might either meet a new seller, or the previous buyer selling out. If the new buyer meets a new seller, open interest has increased to four contracts. But if he meets the previous buyer selling out, the net result is only three (one ceases to exist).
> 
> Had the original seller capitulated and bought back from the original buyer, the open interest would be zero, as both contracts would be negated.
> Traders in all markets watch futures open interest movements very closely. They are an indication as to whether the speculators/investors in the market are getting long or short. This sounds a bit counter-intuitive, for the reality of futures contracts is that there must be a buy for every sell, implying a net square position. But if a market is on the rise, and open interest is rising as well, the implication (particularly in the gold market) is that it is investors building up long positions. The seller is possibly a mining company hedging production, or perhaps a central bank affecting gold sales. It is unlikely to be investors coming the other way, for in a rising market sales by investors will be to take profits. Investors never start out going short. If it were investors selling, the open interest would fall.
> 
> When open interest builds to a significant level in a rising market, it follows that downside pressure will also build. If the price does continue to rise, at some point the longs will look to cash in. If the price begins to fall, then chances are the longs will look to bail out in a hurry.
> 
> And guess what? That's exactly what happened last week. Not only were the longs caught out, the world in general, and the Chinese in particular, were liquidating their physical holdings in a desperate attempt to raise cash against losses in equity positions. The longs were caught in a vacuum.
> The other implication of the build up in open interest in gold futures was provided by the fact that the price had stalled on approach to US$690/oz when everyone was expecting US$700/oz to be just around the corner. If open interest is building and the price isn't moving, the buyers must be hitting a wall of selling. And as Gartman noted: "Whoever, or whatever, the seller is at that level, it has been formidable indeed".
> 
> The Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the US reports weekly on futures positions based on the size of the firms that hold them. It did not escape avid gold writer and GATA supporter James Turk that the big sellers were the so-called "gold cartel" Ã¢â‚¬“ those large global investment banks who act on behalf of central banks.
> 
> GATA's accusation is that the gold cartel has long been acting to suppress the gold price in order to maintain the value of the world's reserve currency Ã¢â‚¬“ the US dollar. The cartel is able to sell vast amounts of gold futures (paper gold) to achieve this, such that the central banks need not run down their actual physical holdings. GATA is convinced that this practise is destined to reach a breaking point at which the central banks will no longer have the firepower to hold back the tide.
> 
> But in the meantime, the gold cartel can simply sell into the market with enough weight behind it safely knowing that the longs will eventually break, and the subsequent sell-off will allow for short positions to be unwound. It doesn't always work however, as the 2005-06 run up to US$725/oz is testament to. Turk maintains that the cartel was also unsuccessful in holding gold in the US$640s and US$660s recently. It wasn't until the US$680s that the cartel got its break. Thank you China.
> 
> Turk is confident that despite the gold rout of the last two weeks, the technicals are still bullish. "We can take solace from the fact that gold is in a long term uptrend", says Turk, "clearly indicating that the gold cartel is losing the war".
> 
> Dennis Gartman "cares not" who is selling gold. Many participants in the gold market scoff at GATA's claims. Nevertheless, the gold derivative market is alive and well and often subject to waves of selling meeting waves of investor buying.
> 
> This is yet to dampen the enthusiasm of just about every major broker and analyst in the FNArena database and beyond who have pitched their average gold price valuations for 2007 at either the high $600s or above US$700/oz.


----------



## Dr Doom

Bush Trader said:
			
		

> Hi All
> 
> This is a great article and I will post it in its entirety for those of you that do not subscribe to FNArena.  It offers a plausible explanation to Gold price resistance we have seen.
> 
> Cheers



Yes Bush Trader I think the fundamentals have always been there, & now even more so re the supply side shortfall - 

" SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - Australian gold output has slipped to its lowest levels in 13 years, but the industry's unhedged producers are enjoying strong revenue gains, thanks to continued price increases, the Age newspaper reported, citing an industry survey.

It said the survey by Melbourne-based consultant Surbiton Associates, showed Australia's gold output fell 5 pct to 249 metric tons in 2006 from 263 tons in 2005 -- the lowest annual total since 1993.

The Age said the production fall moved Australia's global ranking as a gold producer from second position behind the dominant but also falling South Africa to third position, with the US industry regaining the second slot.

Surbiton director Sandra Close said that despite the production fall, the value of Australian gold production increased substantially.

"The average spot gold price of around 800 aud an ounce for 2006 was more than 200 aud an ounce higher than for 2005," the Age quoted Close as saying.

She said the value of Australian gold production for the year increased almost 30 pct to 6.4 bln aud."


----------



## OK2

Similar article in Herald Sun, also goes on to say BMA GOLD having appointed administrators and Tanami GOLD having design problems with their treatment plant delaying production. BGF and BMG deferring production in favour of further exploration.


----------



## Dr Doom

The first I've heard of BGF problems; can't see it in ann's?. LHG share price may come under pressure if true?.


----------



## Sean K

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> The first I've heard of BGF problems; can't see it in ann's?. LHG share price may come under pressure if true?.



 I haven't seen any reports on BGF problems. Perhaps that was an error and O2K meant BDG?


----------



## OK2

Good day guys,

Just reading it out of the article;

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21362267-664,00.html?from=public_rss

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Central Bank Gold Sales Continue To Decline*
FN Arena News - March 14 2007 

By Greg Peel

Yesterday the European Central Bank system reported 0.5t (16,000oz) of gold sales for the week. This small amount indicates the continuation of a trend begun last year, in which the European central banks are selling less than their allocated quota under the Washington Agreement.

Blanchard & Co's Neal R. Ryan surmises that if the trend remains intact sales will fall 8-9 million ounces short of the 2007 quota instead of the 6-8 million ounces previously expected. This "bodes well" for the gold price, notes Ryan, although he suspects a price above US$700/oz would probably trigger further sales.

One simple fact of the matter is that European central banks are simply running out of gold to sell, or at least running out of that which they are prepared to part with at any price. Germany's Bundesbank has reiterated that it will not sell any gold in 2007, and probably not in 2008 either.

France appears to be about the only keen seller, now that Spain and Portugal seem to have shut up shop as well.

Outside the Washington Agreement it's a different matter all together. Central Banks are buying, not selling. The World Gold Council yesterday updated official activity and noted purchases from Russia (17.3t), Belarus (6.2t), Kazakhstan (7.6t) and Greece (3.8t) within the last 3-6 months. Another (unnamed) ECB bank or banks added 14t in February alone.

So what are we doing down here below US$650/oz?

Ryan's take on matters is that the sharp price decline – sparked by a rush to cash after the Shanghai Surprise – cannot continue, even if equities fall further. Moving into the US dollar is particularly tenuous. Eventually the opposite will be true as gold investment is again recognised as a safe move. Supply/demand fundamentals are currently dictating a higher gold price.

Ryan sees a buying opportunity.


----------



## bean

Being a Gold And Silver Bull, I am at the moment either being silly and this stock market correction is over OR towards end of next week I am going to be picking up absolute bargins.  I was expecting an up couple of days then hard down next week... looks like it may be just hard down for everything  for a week.

Triple witching US markets this friday stocks usually rise....if it does'nt are we going to have a week of down on everthing gold included.. if we do gold US$560 - US$580 by next wednesday.  before phase three of the bull restarts


----------



## Kauri

Wonder if gold is going to keep tagging the Dow??


----------



## ducati916

Why not?
It's way higher than it's inflation adjusted value, way above the premium for global instability and it was pushed up on pure speculation.

Unless speculative *buying* returns, then it's going to sell off on speculation until circa it's inflation adjusted value [with a possible overshoot to an undervaluation]

jog on
d998


----------



## Kauri

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Why not?
> It's way higher than it's inflation adjusted value, way above the premium for global instability and it was pushed up on pure speculation.
> 
> Unless speculative *buying* returns, then it's going to sell off on speculation until circa it's inflation adjusted value [with a possible overshoot to an undervaluation]
> 
> jog on
> d998




   So unless it goes up it is going to go down???


----------



## ducati916

Speculation is sentiment and can turn quickly, thus any short covering can provide some buying.

However, short-term money [Hedge Funds] have been blasted recently and they will be looking for a little stability in quality.

Gold therefore will not benefit from buying the dips buying the highs, you'll still see buying the dip's, but difference will be selling the highs.

jog on
d998

Incidentally, the new area for the Hedgies is Hollywood. They are financing film.......go figure. Their big success to date is *300*


----------



## Dr Doom

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Why not?
> It's way higher than it's inflation adjusted value, way above the premium for global instability and it was pushed up on pure speculation.
> 
> Unless speculative *buying* returns, then it's going to sell off on speculation until circa it's inflation adjusted value [with a possible overshoot to an undervaluation]
> 
> jog on
> d998




How do you derive your inflation adjusted value Ducati?. A number of people (analysts economists etc)  have this value at a premium to the current price. 
We're talking some $500 difference in values here, so how can 2 views be so different?. 

I see gold at least being stable 'going forward', being subject to flow on effects of global equity sell offs, due to the following - 

- central banks are accumulating now, as opposed to disposing through the accord.
- money supply has flattened but is still inflationary; growth flat-lining - stagflation?
- supply is less than demand
- viable alternative to any fiat currency (flight to safety?)
- the US dollar will most likely continue to devalue (what would happen in a recession?)
When everything that has been going up in the past due to liquidity excess starts to go down, gold may temporarily be the safest of asset classes.
If you believe in secular trends then the secular gold bull is still intact I think.


----------



## ducati916

*DrD*



> How do you derive your inflation adjusted value Ducati?. A number of people (analysts economists etc) have this value at a premium to the current price.
> We're talking some $500 difference in values here, so how can 2 views be so different?.




The real simple approach, go back to the gold peg @ $35oz in say 1968
Then calculate the annualised inflation rate from 1968 = 4.73%
Inflation adjusted value for Gold = $127.66
Global instability premium = $100 [generous]
Investment value of Gold = $227.66

If we go back to say 1930;
Gold @ $20oz
Inflation annualised = 3.33%
Investment value = $249 + $100 premium = $349.00

I took my valuation back from 1930 hence I value Gold circa $350.00



> - central banks are accumulating now, as opposed to disposing through the accord.
> - money supply has flattened but is still inflationary; growth flat-lining - stagflation?
> - supply is less than demand
> - viable alternative to any fiat currency (flight to safety?)
> - the US dollar will most likely continue to devalue (what would happen in a recession?)
> When everything that has been going up in the past due to liquidity excess starts to go down, gold may temporarily be the safest of asset classes.
> If you believe in secular trends then the secular gold bull is still intact I think.




Ignore Central Banks.
Money supply may well become contractionary, thus deflationary.
Supply is in excess of demand [check the Gold stats]
In a deflation, Bonds are where you want to be.
Gold went up due to liquidity speculation, that's why it's so overvalued. There are NO FUNDAMENTALS supporting Gold at anything much above $400oz

The secular trend for Gold relies on monetary inflation. That trend on a secular basis is as safe as anything I can think of, but, the cyclical trend is down with the bears baby.

jog on
d998


----------



## Kauri

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *DrD*
> 
> 
> 
> The real simple approach, go back to the gold peg @ $35oz in say 1968
> Then calculate the annualised inflation rate from 1968 = 4.73%
> Inflation adjusted value for Gold = $127.66
> Global instability premium = $100 [generous]
> Investment value of Gold = $227.66
> 
> If we go back to say 1930;
> Gold @ $20oz
> Inflation annualised = 3.33%
> Investment value = $249 + $100 premium = $349.00
> 
> I took my valuation back from 1930 hence I value Gold circa $350.00
> 
> jog on
> d998




   ducati,
            Not sure I understand how you can value gold today based on 1930's pricing...  
   $100 for Global instability premium ... a random round number based on what valuation method or principle.. why not $200 or $300.. 
   The remainder of your valuation model based simply on 3.33% annualised Inflation.. does that also account for the fact that the easy 30g/t near surface veins have all but gone, exploration is now a major cost..no more looking for surface quartz and digging a hole, workers no longer live in humpies with Kero lamps and Coolgardie safes, oil dollars looking for a home, govts and banks now actively trading, hedge funds, ETF's, small punters like us in the market........
    In the early 70's our neighbour offered my father 1/2 acre of his front paddock adjacent to us for 500 pounds..($1000) before he subdivided it. Allowing 5% annualised inflation it should be worth what..$5000 now???


----------



## Dr Doom

Ducati, 
If you take the inflation rate of money as the amount of increase in money supply, and the inflation rate of gold as the total increase in the above ground stock of gold, then if we compare the two we can determine if one is undervalued to the other.

Using this method the gold price should be around $US850. But that is only half the story, as that is only comparing with the US dollar. The fact that gold is also rising in other currencies says that those countries are also inflating their money supplies in relative proportions to the gold price appreciation in those currencies.

Now if the US if forced to lower the interest rate due to factors coming into play in order to prime the economy again, then the situation will only get better for gold as the US dollar will most likely depreciate further. Not to mention the 'flight to safety' if the situation becomes worse than a recession.

A simple analysis but I think it's the main factor driving gold at the moment.


----------



## ducati916

*Kauri*



> ducati,
> Not sure I understand how you can value gold today based on 1930's pricing...
> $100 for Global instability premium ... a random round number based on what valuation method or principle.. why not $200 or $300..




The 1930's was when the last effort was made with the Gold standard. 
As to $100 against any other number, of course, you can pick whatever number you want. I picked $100 as an *educated guess*



> oil dollars looking for a home, govts and banks now actively trading, hedge funds, ETF's, small punters like us in the market........




True, and all of these that you mention are SPECULATIVE variables. 



> In the early 70's our neighbour offered my father 1/2 acre of his front paddock adjacent to us for 500 pounds..($1000) before he subdivided it. Allowing 5% annualised inflation it should be worth what..$5000 now???




$6081.40
Just demonstrates how inflated and overvalued land has become, assuming it's priced marginally higher than $6K

*DrD*



> Ducati,
> If you take the inflation rate of money as the amount of increase in money supply, and the inflation rate of gold as the total increase in the above ground stock of gold, then if we compare the two we can determine if one is undervalued to the other.




But I am not interested unduly in the VOLUME of money.
I am interested in the Purchasing Power of the money.



> Now if the US if forced to lower the interest rate due to factors coming into play in order to prime the economy again, then the situation will only get better for gold as the US dollar will most likely depreciate further. Not to mention the 'flight to safety' if the situation becomes worse than a recession.




But here we differ. I don't see lower interest rates. That mistake has already been made once by Greenspan, I think Bernanke is actually quite a hawk.

jog on
d998


----------



## Dr Doom

ducati916 said:
			
		

> True, and all of these that you mention are SPECULATIVE variables.
> 
> But I am not interested unduly in the VOLUME of money.
> I am interested in the Purchasing Power of the money.
> 
> But here we differ. I don't see lower interest rates. That mistake has already been made once by Greenspan, I think Bernanke is actually quite a hawk.
> 
> jog on
> d998




Yes but...

Spec variable, as against a constant variable? Are not most things financial speculative?. So we try to factor these in as best as we can.

Purchasing power - a $1US in 1910 is worth 5c now?. One way to measure purchasing power is to work out how many oz's of gold it takes to buy an item and compare to when you sell; you then have your real gain or loss?.

Interest rates - it's a tried and true remedy these day's to cut rates if there is a chance of recession, only this time it will be like pushing on a peace of string, no effect eg Japan like.  Now if Volcker was there it would be a different matter......

You predict a chance of recession, are you saying they will still raise rates?.


----------



## BlueDaze

*Precious Metals Market Timing -Ron Rosen*

14 Mar 2007

http://www.dinl.net/guestArticle.php5?id=1545

Gold completed its Major Wave One at $728 in May 2006.
The entire rise from $258.60 to $728 is being corrected to remove excess optimism.

Gold needs one more leg down in order to complete this correction.
A 50% correction of the entire move up would bottom at $492.
However, if the [C] leg equals the [A] leg, the bottom may be $526.

The [A] leg down was $166.50
The * leg high was $692.50
$692.50 minus $166.50 equals $526.00

The [A] leg down bottomed at $563.50
The bottom should appear somewhere between $492 and $526
When the bottom is reached, that will complete Major Wave Two

Major Wave Three will then begin.

Silver is in a position similar to gold
The [A] leg gave back 50% of the entire bull move
The [C] leg will most likely bottom lower than the [A] leg
There will be more downside movement before a bottom is made
There is a good probability that silver will bottom in $9.11

If wave [C] equals wave [A], $9.11 will be the target for the bottom of wave [C]. The high was $15.20. The wave [A] low was $9.60. That represents a $5.60 decline. The wave  high was $14.71. $14.71 minus $5.60 equals the bottom of $9.11.

The HUI has completed its Major Wave One and its Major Wave Two, a corrective wave. The HUI has also completed its minor wave (1) of its Major Wave Three. Its minor wave (2), a corrective wave, is apparently still underway/ I believe minor wave (2) has already bottomed and will not go lower than the 270 low.

The technicals are pointing down, indicating more corrective action to take place. The corrective action may be more sideways coiling rather than more downside movement.*


----------



## Dr Doom

I don't think gold stocks could stand another correction down to those levels  Hope it doesn't eventuate.

Here's one for Ducati; it's all relative   

(PS why don't you ride your motorbike, instead of jogging  )


----------



## coyotte

Just a view on WHAT drives the POG market :


1: NOT war/disasters  in themselves -- but the implied inflation from such events

2: Initially LIQUIDITY along with the Merchant Banks --- do a RS chart of POG and NYSE : GS.

3: Finally , the point when GOLD comes into it's own ---- Lack of faith in a nation's currency -- any nation --- this will drive up the POG  relative to that nation's currency .


Cheers


----------



## ducati916

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Yes but...
> 
> Spec variable, as against a constant variable? Are not most things financial speculative?. So we try to factor these in as best as we can.
> 
> Purchasing power - a $1US in 1910 is worth 5c now?. One way to measure purchasing power is to work out how many oz's of gold it takes to buy an item and compare to when you sell; you then have your real gain or loss?.
> 
> Interest rates - it's a tried and true remedy these day's to cut rates if there is a chance of recession, only this time it will be like pushing on a peace of string, no effect eg Japan like.  Now if Volcker was there it would be a different matter......
> 
> You predict a chance of recession, are you saying they will still raise rates?.




I would say that *most things financial* have a variability in that at times they are speculative, and at times investment grade.

Regarding the interest rates; if as I believe a recession is underway and will arrive at end of 1Q in 2008, I do not believe that rates will drop. They may not rise overmuch either, I expect them to stay more or less where they are.

Rather than moving the US rate, the US will pressure China to continue to revalue the Yuan, in exactly the same way they did Japan in the late 1980's. This is already underway and I expect it to continue.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> I don't think gold stocks could stand another correction down to those levels  Hope it doesn't eventuate.
> 
> Here's one for Ducati; it's all relative
> 
> (PS why don't you ride your motorbike, instead of jogging  )





Just looking at that..............
I would HAVE to sell Gold and buy the S&P500
No brainer!

Because I'm too bloody fat!

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

coyotte said:
			
		

> Just a view on WHAT drives the POG market :
> 
> 
> 1: NOT war/disasters  in themselves -- but the implied inflation from such events
> 
> 2: Initially LIQUIDITY along with the Merchant Banks --- do a RS chart of POG and NYSE : GS.
> 
> 3: Finally , the point when GOLD comes into it's own ---- Lack of faith in a nation's currency -- any nation --- this will drive up the POG  relative to that nation's currency .
> 
> 
> Cheers




4: Speculation

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte

From the deceased Kitco Forum :

Brokers used to use the rule of thumb that fair value was " 1oz = 1 quality business suit ".


Cheers


----------



## ducati916

coyotte said:
			
		

> From the deceased Kitco Forum :
> 
> Brokers used to use the rule of thumb that fair value was " 1oz = 1 quality business suit ".
> 
> 
> Cheers




Yes true enough, which makes it what currently?
It's been a while since I looked at suits.

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte

Well I suppose it just shows how wacko gold bugs can get !


----------



## bvbfan

In 1930 average  new house cost $7,145.00  and by 1939 was $3,800.00  (250oz of gold to bit over 100oz)
In 1930 the average income per year was $1,970.00   and by 1939 was $1,730.00  (65oz of gold to bit over 50oz)  
In 1930 a gallon of gas was  10 cents  and by 1939 was  10 cents 
In 1930 the average cost of new car was  $640.00   and by 1939 was  $700.00
(20oz of gold to bit over 30oz)

Can you buy a new car for even a 100oz now

No wonder you're bearish gold if you believe the inflation figures provided.


----------



## ducati916

bvbfan said:
			
		

> In 1930 average  new house cost $7,145.00  and by 1939 was $3,800.00  (250oz of gold to bit over 100oz)
> In 1930 the average income per year was $1,970.00   and by 1939 was $1,730.00  (65oz of gold to bit over 50oz)
> In 1930 a gallon of gas was  10 cents  and by 1939 was  10 cents
> In 1930 the average cost of new car was  $640.00   and by 1939 was  $700.00
> (20oz of gold to bit over 30oz)
> 
> Can you buy a new car for even a 100oz now
> 
> No wonder you're bearish gold if you believe the inflation figures provided.




I'm not quite sure I follow your argument. The time period that you have utilized is probably the most *deflationary* period in recent history [1930-1939]

For an annualised inflation, the longer the period the better [law of large numbers] 

jog on
d998


----------



## bvbfan

Yes it was the most deflationary period where in dollar terms the price levels were the lowest. (not purchasing power)
If your theory of 3.3% inflation values gold at $330 then what of the value of the items I posted?
If yuor theory stood up then the same value of gold should buy those things today.

And before you say a car is more advanced today, the calculation of CPI would actually make a car cheaper than what it really is  as applied by the US monetary authorities.


----------



## ducati916

bvbfan said:
			
		

> Yes it was the most deflationary period where in dollar terms the price levels were the lowest. (not purchasing power)
> If your theory of 3.3% inflation values gold at $330 then what of the value of the items I posted?
> If yuor theory stood up then the same value of gold should buy those things today.
> 
> And before you say a car is more advanced today, the calculation of CPI would actually make a car cheaper than what it really is  as applied by the US monetary authorities.




Still don't really follow your argument.
In the 1930-1939 time period, purchasing power was at a high point, as it would be in a deflationary period.

Now that we are in an inflationary period, purchasing power is at it's lower end, therefore you are contrasting two polar periods.
Why?

Leaving out technological advances, can you illustrate with an example?
I'm having a low wattage day obviously, but I just don't follow your line of thought.

jog on
d998


----------



## Dr Doom

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Rather than moving the US rate, the US will pressure China to continue to revalue the Yuan, in exactly the same way they did Japan in the late 1980's. This is already underway and I expect it to continue.
> 
> jog on
> d998




Let's assume that this will actually happen, & that China revalues and their products become more expensive to Americans as a result. I would assume this would be even more inflationary and a positive for gold. Any Yuan revalue won't be good for the US consumer, so you would then have a complete set of recessionary contributors - manufacturing, housing & consumer spending.

The other option is to raise rates and quicken or further add to recessionary forces. The most likely option if only because there will be political pressure instead of financial responsibility, is to drop rates & flood the country with liquidity, as Bernanke has said he will do, throwing it from a helicopter. 

Benny is between a rock & a hard place; maybe Greenspan saw the writing on the wall. Stability is golds enemy; good for gold either way?.


----------



## ducati916

*DrD*

Just a quickie, I'll come back with a post a bit later, as your queries require some thought!

But in the meantime.................

AP
China Announces 0.27 Pct. Rate Hike
Saturday March 17, 2:23 pm ET 
By Audra Ang, Associated Press Writer  
China's Central Bank Announces 0.27 Percentage Point Increase in Key Interest Rates 




> BEIJING (AP) -- China's central bank said Saturday it will raise key interest rates by more than a quarter percentage point in a move to cool torrid economic growth -- the fourth increase in a year.
> The 0.27 percentage point hike in one-year deposit and lending benchmark rates will go into effect Sunday, the People's Bank of China said.
> 
> ADVERTISEMENT
> 
> 
> That would raise lending rates to 6.39 percent and deposit rates to 2.79 percent, the bank said in a statement on its Web site.
> 
> The new rates will "promote the good, fast development of the national economy" by guiding an increase in credit and investment, preserving price stability and steady operation of the financial system, the statement said.
> 
> The rate hike is the latest in a series of measures China's leaders have taken to slow an economy they fear is running at an unsustainable pace. Four years of double-digit economic growth, largely driven by investment and exports, have left the financial system flush with cash.
> 
> In recent months Chinese leaders have been sounding the alarm about excessive lending, worried that it would push growth too fast and thereby accelerate recently rising inflation or touch off a debt crisis if imprudently made loans go bad.
> 
> Low deposit rates have also encouraged a rush by ordinary Chinese into the country's buoyant stock markets, exposing them to greater risks as a two-year bull market begins to flag.
> 
> Premier Wen Jiabao, at a news conference Friday, ticked off a list of economic problems, citing excessive investment, credit and liquidity and swelling foreign exchange reserves.
> 
> "My mind is full of concerns," he told reporters.




jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Let's assume that this will actually happen, & that China revalues and their products become more expensive to Americans as a result. I would assume this would be even more inflationary and a positive for gold. Any Yuan revalue won't be good for the US consumer, so you would then have a complete set of recessionary contributors - manufacturing, housing & consumer spending.
> 
> The other option is to raise rates and quicken or further add to recessionary forces. The most likely option if only because there will be political pressure instead of financial responsibility, is to drop rates & flood the country with liquidity, as Bernanke has said he will do, throwing it from a helicopter.
> 
> Benny is between a rock & a hard place; maybe Greenspan saw the writing on the wall. Stability is golds enemy; good for gold either way?.




Higher inflation for the US based on a revaluation of the Yuan, which is obviously well under way now would be a positive for Gold *IF*

*Gold was currently undervalued
*Gold was fairly valued

That Gold is currently grossly overvalued currently therefore negates the underlying fundamental justification for buying Gold.

Gold may go higher on speculation, but it will be a fast money crowd again and very volatile.

I do not see Bernanke lowering rates for two main reasons;

*Devaluation of the Dollar is not good for the US in the longer term and it won't work as the world is awash in liquidity anyway, lowering rates is simply increasing liquidity via lower cost of credit. The US are really pressing China on the Yuan as they did the Japanese on the Yen in "89, and it's working again, go figure.

*By lowering discount rate, he runs the risk of pressuring the YCT to further unwind, this has really unpredictable consequences, and I very much doubt he'll risk it.

Therefore rates will remain the same, or rise. Bernanke will not replicate Greenspans error.

Gold will remain pretty volatile in a fairly broad range, gradually falling lower.

jog on
d998


----------



## Dr Doom

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Higher inflation for the US based on a revaluation of the Yuan, which is obviously well under way now would be a positive for Gold *IF*
> 
> *Gold was currently undervalued
> *Gold was fairly valued
> 
> That Gold is currently grossly overvalued currently therefore negates the underlying fundamental justification for buying Gold.
> 
> jog on
> d998




We'll make a true believer out of you yet!  

Gold is undervalued according to lot's of traditional benchmark ratio's also eg Dow-gold, oil-gold, Tbond-gold etc

Over the very long-term, gold in $US oscillates around a fair value and this fair value is determined by the total quantity of US dollars and the total quantity of gold. Although it is becoming harder to determine the amount of $US in existence when the Fed ceases to publish them eg M3.

So, what you are basically implying is that gold is worthless either way, at least as a currency?. I'm not sure about the assumptions you have taken in arriving at a fair value eg $200  + $100 fudge factor(?) then an extra $50 for good measure = $350. 

Taking that the original figure was in 1930 based on an arbitrary amount nominated by the government of the time means that it's popular value wasn't able to be ascertained for that time period so I don't think it is a valid surmisation to base the original value on.

If gold is to be viewed as a currency & therefore an alternative currency then relative inflation rates would probably be more of a guide to determine fair value, and it is on this basis that most recent valuations have been derived.

You would have to agree that the inflation rate for gold is much less than for fiat money, in any currency, which is evident in golds appreciation in multiple currencies.

So if gold is to appreciate further relative to the $US then anything that puts downward pressure on the $US must be good for gold as a 'flight to the _safest_ currency'?.

As per comments in this article - 

" David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC, urged investors not to confuse a US slowdown and its implications with a carry trade unwind.

“Our contention is that the market has come to a sudden and dramatic realisation that the US slowdown is far from over and, in fact, has a new lease of life.”

He said the recent slide in dollar/yen reflected a downward reassessment of the US economy, not an unwinding of carry trades.

“A true carry trade unwind is an irrational closing of positions due to fear. What we are seeing with dollar/yen at the moment is a rational result of reduced expected returns.”

According to Mr Bloom, the dollar’s relative strength amid the recent turbulence in equity markets has been understandable as investors sought the safe haven of US Treasuries and, by default, bought dollars.

*Mr Bloom said that once the dust settled, the market would have to decide what to do with those dollars.

“That is when we might get a true carry trade unwind and the dollar could fall heavily against the board,” he said.*

There were signs on Friday that the process might have started, as the dollar slid against the euro and sterling, having held up well during the rest of the week."


----------



## Kauri

Has reached what I would consider the min for Wc-ii... interesting to see if she forms into a W iii that ties in with the potential bearish flag..


----------



## Sean K

Trying to crack 660. Another key area. 

Channelling up at the moment. Wish I had better charts than these!!!

(does channelling have two n's and l's   )

Breaking though here would indicate further upward momentum IMO.


----------



## Dr Doom

Try these Kennas

Stockcharts gold

&

COT chart


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold Price Target of US$750*

Colin Twiggs opined that the higher high and higher low in the gold price confirms the gold bull. He set a price target of 750.


----------



## Kauri

At an interesting stage..


----------



## Dr Doom

Kauri said:


> At an interesting stage..




Yes, looks like it may try to test the lower channel support around $645???
I'm getting a bit uneasy again with the 'other' market (DOW etc) getting ahead of itself (400 pts last week?) which may drag gold down with it again if it decides to take a breather. Aligning itself with the DOW - weird. Always interesting!


----------



## chops_a_must

Dr Doom said:


> Yes, looks like it may try to test the lower channel support around $645???
> I'm getting a bit uneasy again with the 'other' market (DOW etc) getting ahead of itself (400 pts last week?) which may drag gold down with it again if it decides to take a breather. Aligning itself with the DOW - weird. Always interesting!



Looks like it may have broken away for now Doc. Temporary perhaps? Possibly realigning itself with oil again. Rising gold has been bad for the DJI lately. Now it's faced with rising gold on a falling DOW, it could become catastrophic if something breaks.


----------



## Dr Doom

chops_a_must said:


> Looks like it may have broken away for now Doc. Temporary perhaps? Possibly realigning itself with oil again. Rising gold has been bad for the DJI lately. Now it's faced with rising gold on a falling DOW, it could become catastrophic if something breaks.




Amazing how 1 report changes things. I'm thinking the US property meltdown may be that X factor that breaks the back of the US economy. The reports showed 'surprise' when the new home sales figures came in below forecast. What planet are these economists on?. This week looks like a double top in the DOW if the rest of the reports dissapoint. A scenario maybe - reports are worse than expected, market tanks again, short term weakness in gold, Bernanke lowers interest rates, $US tumbles, reduced buying of US debt intruments, gold takes off?
For OZ, short term a high chance of an interest rate increase - $AU appreciates, negating US gold price increases. Long term, interest rates start to bite, consumers reduce consuming, $AU falls, AU gold price increases?.


----------



## Sean K

Sailors released - oil down - gold up. What? 

What's happened to the oil-inflation-gold connection? I give up on understanding financial markets. Almost.  

Must be something else at work right this second. China buying perhaps?


----------



## Bush Trader

This may be of interest

Cheers

*GFMS Gold Survey Suggests Price Should Go Higher

Source: FN Arena News - April 05 2007 
By Chris Shaw*
Industry consultants GFMS have released their Gold Survey for 2007, the document's key theme being the potential for the gold price to continue pushing higher both this year and into 2008.
According to group chairman Philip Klapwijk, the 2007 outlook is such the record average gold price mark of US$614.50 per ounce set back in 1980 is likely to fall this year, while it wouldn't surprise if the market was able to move above its 2006 high of US$725 per ounce.
While moving beyond the record high of US$850 per ounce is a more difficult proposition, Klapwijk sees no reason for the metal to not post further gains into 2008.
The group expects investors to be at the forefront of the push to higher prices, even though the data for 2006 is not suggestive of such a trend. As Klapwijk notes, the official figures show investment in the sector actually fell last year from 2006 levels, official figures indicating total world investment in the sector was 743 tonnes. In volume terms this equates to a fall of 13% but in value terms it represents an increase of 14% to US$14.4 billion. As Klapwijk points out, the market is now a new structure as it has moved from a buy side only structure to a more two-sided model and total investment shows little sign of falling.
Nor should it in the group's view, as the reasons why investors would be positive on the gold price outlook remain the same – the potential for a weaker US dollar and a slowdown in the US economy, the threat of higher inflation and increased geopolitical tensions.
Supporting this is an argument based on weight of money, as the group notes total non-commercial investment across a number of commodities stood at only US$138 billion as at the end of last year, meaning there is scope for this to increase significantly going forward. Helping here is the fact central banks aligned to the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) are not meeting their annual sale quotas, which is helping to tighten the market.
Also tightening the market is ongoing producer de-hedging, which the group points out quadrupled last year to more than 370 tonnes, 76% of which occurred in the first half of the year. While matching last year's level appears a difficult task, GFMS expects de-hedging to remain at elevated levels through the year with a total of more than 300 tonnes considered likely.
The impact of this de-hedging is significant, as the group notes last year's numbers mean the total of outstanding forward sales, loans and hedges against options positions stand at 1,364 tonnes, a level not seen since 1994.
Looking more closely at the supply side presents a similarly bullish picture, as the group notes global production fell by 3% last year to a 10-year low. At the same time global cash costs pushed higher, increasing by around US$45 per ounce on the back of higher energy and labour costs and consumables charges.
Asia accounted for the largest portion of the decline, this despite China lifting production by around 8%. More modest falls were recorded in North American and African output, while Oceania production was down by 21 tonnes. This year should see something of a reversal, the group expecting a 1-2% increase in total production as new mines come on stream and production is ramped-up at existing operations.
The fall in output was matched by official sector sales that halved to around 328 tonnes, the lowest level since 1997. While the large central banks played the major role in this decline, the change from seller to buyer by a number of smaller central banks also contributed. Offsetting these supply declines was a 25% jump in scrap metal sales, which rose to more than 1,100 tonnes.
The demand side of the equation, and in particular the demand from the jewellery sector, suffered through 2006 as the market adjusted to higher prices. Total jewellery fabrication fell 16% or 428 tonnes to 2,280 tonnes, a 15-year low. It was a tale of two halves though, as 1H06 fabrication was down 30% and 2H06 posted a small increase. Other fabrication demand actually increased by around 10% in 2006.
The largest falls in terms of jewellery demand came in key markets such as India and Turkey that are traditionally price sensitive, while demand in the US was also lower. Higher prices also drove down buying from the Middle East, helped by higher levels of scrap supply. GFMS estimates the total volume of old jewellery being scrapped increased by 112 tonnes or 34% year-on-year, while in Saudi Arabia local scrap volumes rose 44% year-on-year.
The group suggests with its positive outlook for the gold price jewellery demand could contract further this year, but any decline is unlikely to be as big in percentage terms as was the case last year.


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> Sailors released - oil down - gold up. What?
> 
> What's happened to the oil-inflation-gold connection? I give up on understanding financial markets. Almost.
> 
> Must be something else at work right this second. China buying perhaps?




The USD is tanking. I think that is the story.


----------



## Bush Trader

Another perspective

*Gold Breaks Out Against The Odds
Source: FN Arena News - April 05 2007 
By Greg Peel*


Writing in his daily newsletter yesterday, US trading guru Dennis Gartman stated:
"Should spot gold trade upward through $665, the bears on gold will find themselves in a rather awkward position, for at that point gold will be coming up through the top of "The Box" that marked the 50-62% retracement of the previous break. The gold bears have pinned their hopes on making certain that spot gold does not trade upward through that resistance. We've no doubt but that they will try again, later in North American dealing, to push gold downward ; but if they fail this time, and if gold should move upward through this resistance, going into the long weekend the bears may find that it is easier to accept defeat than to try to press their case."
Spot on. Gold broke through last night and subsequently rallied over US$10 to close at US$673.80/oz Ã¢â‚¬“ a jump of 1.5%.
The breakout was achieved despite the news that Iran would provide Britain with a generous Easter present (in keeping with Islamic tradition after the recent marking of Mohammed's birthday) in forgiving the 15 captured British sailors and marines and handing them over unharmed. An easing of tensions should otherwise have seen the gold price ease as well but this was not the case.
The crude price did not react too strongly either, falling only marginally due to news that inventories in the US were not as expected. But what really sparked gold's rally were the latest US economic data, which this time were poor. It's a bit of a day to day proposition, this good/bad data thing, but it appears the general trend is for a weaker US dollar.
Last night brought us the Institute of Supply Management's index reading for March. Anything over 50% means the US economy is expanding, and below 50%, contracting. The result came in at 52.4%, down from 54.3% in February. Economist consensus was for a rise to 55%. The data suggests that while the US economy is still growing, its growth is slowing.
Backing up the ISM data was the release of factory orders for February. These rose by 1.0%, but this was considered a negative as economist consensus had been for a 1.9% rise.
Subsequent weakness in the US dollar was thus enough to fire up gold, and once the top of the trading range was breached the sellers evaporated. Buyers would have also been heartened by yesterday's release of the annual Gold Fields Mineral Services report for 2007, which continues to predict a stronger gold price and likely breaching of the previous US$725/oz high some time soon. Despite a fall in the volume of gold investment and in jewellery off-take, demand is still strong in US dollar terms. Full coverage of the GFMS report appears in yesterday's article "GFMS Survey Suggests Price Should Go Higher".
Despite the positive report from GFMS, what is even more remarkable in gold's capacity to break out once more is the fact that once again central banks have been hammering the metal.
Blanchard & Co report that last week again saw heavy selling from European banks Ã¢â‚¬“ some 17.5 tonnes to be precise Ã¢â‚¬“ bringing the three week total of sales to 45.5 tonnes. To put this in context, the previous three weeks saw total sales of only 7 tonnes.
When central banks sold 50 tonnes into the market in September 2006, the gold price fell nearly US$30/oz. When 75 tonnes were sold in May 2006, the price fell more than US$100/oz.
Blanchard suspects France is the major seller, given Germany has indicated it will not sell and Spain and Portugal have shut up shop following massive sales last year. If so, France will be coming close to fulfilling its sales allotment for the year (ending September) under the Washington Agreement. With that obstacle removed, market observers believe there will be little holding back the gold price given Washington Agreement sales are expected to fall well short of the total 2007 allotment as they did in 2006.
Blanchard further notes we are heading into another peak demand season for the metal.
Will we get there this time?


----------



## drillinto

Gold poised for record run
By Kevin Morrison 

Published: April 4 2007 13:06 | FT.com

Gold prices could exceed last year’s 26 year high of $730 an ounce within the next 12 months due to a weaker dollar, rising geopolitical tensions and an investment led rally, according to the annual survey by GFMS, the metals consultancy.

GFMS said given the general favourable backdrop and the still low level of participation form institutional and private inventors in most countries, there remains considerable upside potential for gold even as the current rally enters its seventh year. 

“GFMS’s view is that an investor led rally into at least the mid-$700s is indeed probable over the next year or so,” it said. 

“The strength of the gold price in 2007-to date, the continued moving up of the floor at which physical buying kicks in to support the metal and a further, albeit smaller, decline in gold supply is also expected to boost investor confidence in the yellow metal,” it said.

Although, GFMS predicts further price growth, underlying physical demand for the metal continues to wane as higher prices deter jewellery buyers. 

GFMS said global jewellery demand fell to 2,280 tonnes last year in more than 15 years, and 16 per cent below last year and 30 per cent down from its peak in 1997. This decline was partly offset by a small increase in demand from the electronics sector.

While physical consumption of the metal has weakened, investment demand increased to a record 640 tonnes, up almost eight per cent on the year and almost double the amount seen in 2003.

But a further fall in mine production combined with reduction selling from central banks of their gold reserves led to a decline in gold supply last year by five per cent. GFMS said global mine output fell three per cent to 2,471 tonnes, a 10 year low. The biggest declines were seen in the traditional gold mining producers South Africa, United States, Australia and Canada.

Despite the increase in gold selling prices, mine production costs continued to rise to an average of $317 an ounce last year, up $45 from 2005. Higher energy and labour charges were behind the rise. 

However, gold scrap supply gained 25 per cent to 1,108 tonnes last year, driven by higher gold prices. Scrap gold accounted for 28 per cent of total gold supplies last year. 

The gold price averaged $603.77 a troy ounce last year, up 36 per cent on the previous year, and the second-largest annual average after 1980’s record of $614.50. Gold prices hit a peak of $730 in May, the highest level since the record of $850 in January 1980. 

Gold also appreciated in other currencies too, with a 34 per cent gain in South African Rand prices, a 21 per cent rise in the yen gold price and a 8.7 per cent advance in the Euro gold price. 

While the gold price’s gain was a strong in a historical context, it was relatively mild compared with other metal price moves last year. The average annual silver price gained 60 per cent, palladium was up 59 per cent, zinc rose 137 per cent, copper 83 per cent and nickel 65 per cent.


[ The big issue is not whether gold goes up this year or next. It is how high and how long ]


----------



## bean

Gold is ready to drop.  Gold shares are ready to drop.
I am a gold bug but have no shares at the moment.

Gold shares are going to follow the market for the next few weeks.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Gold is ready to drop.  Gold shares are ready to drop.
> I am a gold bug but have no shares at the moment.
> 
> Gold shares are going to follow the market for the next few weeks.



Why bean? The only slightly more detailed analysis done above indicates it's going up. What's your theory?


----------



## drillinto

Gold gets its glitter back

http://transcripts.businessday.co.za/cgi-bin/transcripts/t-showtranscript.pl?1175734036


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Why bean? The only slightly more detailed analysis done above indicates it's going up. What's your theory?




I follow several people that give analysis.   One such person is Jeff Kern who updates every three or so weeks on 321gold.  He has his own subscription site.  I do subscribe to his site however know his system (partly) and have daily data for about 20 odd years on the index he uses.  That index has risen for the last 6 days could rise another day but when it drops his indexes will sell (however I don't think they are on a buy signal). Also gold has risen for last 5 days...His indexes and things are a bit more complicated to explain I do not understand them fully.
However I am not IN.  will I be right in what I have said based on my interpretation of his last report. and on the number of days gold and the indexhe follows has risen.
We will find out in the next few days.
The other ones I follow use HUI and XAU and they are both a critical levels.
The other thing is is the DOW going up to make a double TOP..
If the US market does go down. I also Know that gold and silver shares will go as well.
So I may note enter the gold and silver market for a few weeks.
Time will tell if I am wrong  and also maybe anyone who is serious investing in Gold should look at his site.


----------



## mildew79

i think a price rise to 900 - 1000 us in the next 6 - 12 months is not out of the question.

there have recently been many posts in this thread on fundamental reasons behind a likely future rise in the price of gold. these pretty much sum up my reasonings behind a gold price advance to a tee, so i thought id add a basic chart.



spot price recently broke out of a triangle chart formation. triangle formations after an advance are usually a bullish sign and represent continuation patterns

also, after a long period of consolidation, price movements tend to be more 
extreme / convincing.



a couple of my favourite larger gold plays are lhg and ogd. these companies are in a fantastic position to benefit from an increase in the price of gold, and also offer great leverage.

ogd has hedging in place and has been overlooked imo. hedge books are due to be lightened considerably in the next few years.

lhg is in a fantastic position to take advantage of a rise in gold price. The main risk i can see is a natural disaster due to mine location. lhg have effectively cut costs by up to 30 million per year thanks to a geothermal plant. This savings amount shall increase as production costs continue to rise(its all relative), and lhg shall look a more attractive play as its competitors are forced to incur these cost increases in production. (think of it as lhg hedging a potion of their production costs at considerably lower prices)


bean: id like to hear something a little more in depth to support your views. i always like to hear both sides of the story so to speak, but you have so far failed to offer a real explanation.


----------



## CanOz

Gold (jun07) is trading above 680 for the second time in less than 24 hrs. I've noticed that Hong Kong is usually subdued in trading, but today its pretty active. Anyone notice this about the HK x?

Cheers,


----------



## bean

mildew79 said:


> bean: id like to hear something a little more in depth to support your views. i always like to hear both sides of the story so to speak, but you have so far failed to offer a real explanation.




The gold index I mentioned USERX closed up last night 7 days straight. The DOW closed up last night 7 days straight.  I see a correlation not between gold and oil I see the gold stock and the DOW.  The DOW appears to be ( A) forming a broadening top or (B) making a double TOP.  And if it is Stocks that includes gold stocks as well will be falling and the price of gold will fall as well.  As people move into bonds and cash.  Then we may see money move in to gold and yes $850 to $1000 this year.

The other thing is US gold stocks are struggling to break out.  They do not appear to be really believing this rally in gold as yet.
Yes that gold indec has move up but only 5% in 7 days A true breakout it would do that in one day.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

chops_a_must said:


> The USD is tanking. I think that is the story.




I hear that Gold is a safe haven when the US dollar is in the dumps.

But don't quote me!:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The planets are aligning for gold - maybe the last chance for a once in a generation event, soon.

Central bank sales fail to curb gold price, instead some central banks are accumulating,
Fiat money creation out of control - US @ 10% per year, China @ 20%
Geopolitical tensions in the middle east - nothing new here
Diversification away from the $US - usually if a country starts a rumour that they want to be paid in Euro's they soon receive a call from the US military, just ask Saddam, now it's Iran's turn.
The $US is the main actor, getting ready to take it's final curtain call.

Trade war between the US & China - indicates the US is desperate
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed to a five-week high Tuesday, as renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a slide in the U.S. dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.
Gold for June delivery settled up $4.60, or 0.7%, at $681.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached a high of $686.80 in intraday trading, the highest price seen for that contract since Feb. 28.
"The U.S. currency took another hit this morning after overnight data showed a widening (actually a doubling) Chinese trade surplus," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Bullion was also bolstered by rising crude oil prices which showed strength after several sessions of significant weakness."
* China's trade surplus widened to $46.4 billion from $23.3 billion*. U.S. trade officials on Monday filed two cases against China before the World Trade Organization, charging that Beijing has failed to crack down on copyright violations on a wide range of products and maintaining barriers to trade in books, music, videos and movies.

"The gold market is being driven by investment demand, which saw another 6.15 tons of gold bought in the last two days," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "Add to this the start up of more Indian gold exchange-traded funds and now an announcement of one to come in Japan."
"All these represent long-term buyers of gold, but they have set a pattern of being particularly vigorous buyers when the gold price rises," Phillips said.
"Global uncertainty as represented by the dollar, oil, China, political pressures, acts as a tide encouraging investment into gold, as an underlying driving force," he said.


----------



## bean

The Gold Index I have been mentioning closed up again 8 Days straight and the DOW 8 days straight (with a *massive* 274 point gain over the 8 days )  the best amount of up days since it closed up 8 days in a row 21st March 2003 closing price was 8522.  Its closing price on the 22nd March 2003 was 8215  only a 307 point drop.
Gold may top tonight the DOW may top tonight??
Golds stocks in the US are following the DOW.


----------



## Kimosabi

bean said:


> The Gold Index I have been mentioning closed up again 8 Days straight and the DOW 8 days straight (with a *massive* 274 point gain over the 8 days ) the best amount of up days since it closed up 8 days in a row 21st March 2003 closing price was 8522. Its closing price on the 22nd March 2003 was 8215 only a 307 point drop.
> Gold may top tonight the DOW may top tonight??
> Golds stocks in the US are following the DOW.




With the value of the US dollar going down, this is already pushing the Gold price up.

With supply going down, inflation going up, interest rates going up, and potential loss of confidence in US dollar, Gold is going to keep going up...


----------



## bean

I am a Gold Bull.  I hold physical silver.
But I do know corrections come and this correction in Gold is not finished for the third wave up to begin.  I have been a Gold Bull for about 7 years.  I follow US markets and have various sites that have good analysts.  Ones I have been paying attenion to before the gold bull really started.  Not the Johnny come lately analysis that come out of the wood work once a bull starts.
The US gold HUI index is at resistance.  The DOW/US markets are on the verge (isn't that part of the big picture why we invest in Gold)  If the DOW or the US market decide to correct all shares will fall initially Gold shares included.  The US dollar may be dead but beware of a dead cat bounce.  Also take a look at what happened to our share market last time our $ got so high (it should be correcting about 10%) You have to look at the big picture not just one or two things.


----------



## wavepicker

Kimosabi said:


> With the value of the US dollar going down, this is already pushing the Gold price up.
> 
> With supply going down, inflation going up, interest rates going up, and potential loss of confidence in US dollar, Gold is going to keep going up...




Would have to agree with bean.  Also, if Gold does make a new high, it might be temporary and marginal, simply cannot see it continuing very bullishly to higher levels if it does ATM. In the loger term yes. US Dollar Index although still looking bearish, has really been struggling down the last year. This market is churning and  reversal in the months ahead maybe in the making.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

wavepicker said:


> Would have to agree with bean.  Also, if Gold does make a new high, it might be temporary and marginal, simply cannot see it continuing very bullishly to higher levels if it does ATM. In the loger term yes. US Dollar Index although still looking bearish, has really been struggling down the last year. This market is churning and  reversal in the months ahead maybe in the making.
> 
> Cheers




Good to see your posts WP, i look forward to them.

Cheers,


----------



## bean

Well if I didn't post you might think I have turned bullish overnight.
Last night the Gold Index I have been mentioning was down and so was the DOW..  The DOW is now at critical point below 10450 its down to test the lows of last month above 10500 it may rally?  Gold shares will follow the DOW and so will the price of Gold.


----------



## bean

Wavepicker you inbox was full.  If you want to empty it I will tell when wave three is ready to start.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*An **Ascending Continuation Triangle emerging - hold on if it breaks $690!
*


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> *An **Ascending Continuation Triangle emerging - hold on if it breaks $690!
> *



I agree. Psychologically, breaking this level of resistance is probably going to send it to test all time highs, pending breakout of peace in the Middle East and the US $ strengthening......


----------



## clowboy

$690 just broken, with haste.

New records, here we come, I hope.


----------



## chops_a_must

clowboy said:


> $690 just broken, with haste.
> 
> New records, here we come, I hope.



Although it is a good thing for a lot of my stocks (am deliberately leveraged to gold stocks for macro reasons), it isn't wonderful for the overall market... A rapidly increasing gold price has a habit of crashing everything else.

Which, strangely enough, will hurt gold stocks in the short term as well.

If the gold price stays up over the next few days, there will be blood on the floor.


----------



## CanOz

Could be a big move soon....


----------



## harmony

OK, so there must be something I am missing, gold going up, US gold stocks up but ours seem to be in a trading range still. Is the AUD too high now for Aussie gold stocks?

Go gold stocks.


----------



## Sean K

One for the Gold Bulls to get excited about....or bears to consider.  

*Sell Gold in May and walk away - Not This Time*

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/apr172007.html


----------



## bean

Well did not post for a few day as the DOW was going to rise and so was gold.  What now asks every taks about US$ http://www.elliottwave.com/ give a coment on the dollar sentiment same as may 2006.  Being a gold bull 'what happened then'
Yes gold can rise a bit more the DOW for want of being may make 13000 or is the double top in already.
All markets are becoming vunerable at the moment.  Gold will some break away.  To those how have gold stock which have any hedging what so ever.  The first thing I learned about 7 years ago was not to buy a gold company which hedge and also if gold ever gets passed $850 they are sinking and past a $1000 they are stuffed.
This latest move is a goog example gold in US $ has move about $US 50 up gold in AUD is about $40 down. (well not a good example) if gold really take of these companies will be selling gold cheap.
The gold share I am going to buy have done diddly twat.
I am in cash with no risk.  Australia Gold shares are acting like the Australian market should be with our $ stronger.  Is the ASX in a bubble?


----------



## bean

> This latest move is a goog example gold in US $ has move about $US 50 up gold in AUD is about $40 down. (well not a good example) if gold really take of these companies will be selling gold cheap.



 Sorry everyone was reading about how Google may be droping in days, weeks, ahead. GOOG should have been gold.


----------



## bean

Didn't do a post last night as I expected the DOW to finish up and thought gold might as well.  The DOW is ready to explode to the upside (a blow off top) 
Gold and Gold stocks http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htmthe following link READ it has charts and elliot wave commentery.This Martin Goldberg is quite a good technician.  Does posts for gold every now and again.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Went long on gold around 11 after i saw it bounced of its trend. Trend was also reconfirmed.

Finding some selling again at 690 not sure what to make of that yet.

Still moving in a 45degree angle, better to see it above the 45degree Gann line but the price has returned to a bullish position above the 1x1 line.

I am going to hold still bullish.


----------



## bean

With the DOW approaching 13,000 a milestone (reach monday night) does it correct sometime this week or continue in its blow off fashion.
Gold approaching $700  Gold (US) shares have if you read the article on link I posted the other day have been following S&P and DOW.
So tuesday on wedesday night do we have some down days.  The gold indexes in the US really don't want to drop on either of those night as they may well issue sell signals.  One of the US shares he mention Gold Corp when gold dropped US $4 on thursday night there shares dropped over 3.5% friday night gold up $8 there shares up only 0.16%.  Get the picture the gold shares at the moment are not following Gold or the US markets with the same vigour. Yes the gold indexes are rising but not as thought they truley believe this move.  One is going to be right on the direction.  That is why I will wait until the shares decide.

The trouble we have is we have a holiday on wednesday.
Now if the shares were to fly tuesday and wenesday night buying shares on thursday could have gaps up so may be paying 10% more for some shares.
However if it is the opposite and its down could have big gaps down.


----------



## drillinto

Prepare to go blind...


"Load up on gold stocks while you still can!"
 Sources: AME Info & Stockhouse ; 4/15/2007

The price of the yellow metal advanced past $685 last week on US dollar weakness, yet gold stocks have lagged behind in the recovery from the sell-off that started last May. If gold has now got the wind in its sails then gold shares should be due for a sharp rally very soon and indeed leverage off gold's advance.With monetary inflation now surging worldwide, that is to say the money supply is running out-of-control, then a much higher gold price is just a question of time, and it maybe not that much time either. Last week we saw the US dollar fall to a two-year low against the euro as this debasement of the world's reserve currency gathered pace. Yet with M3 money supply statistics now abandoned by the Federal Reserve it is impossible to gauge just how serious this problem might be although the yawning twin deficits suggest it can only get worse and worse, unless corrected by a recession. Gold is the only true currency and fiat paper currencies like the US dollar devalue against this fixed store of value in times of inflation. But there is a tipping point at which the gradual shift away from the US dollar will become a rout as holders of the US currency seek an alternative. 

$3,000 an ounce
Then gold will start a rapid ascent in value, back towards an inflation-adjusted, all-time high of around $3,000 an ounce. Supporters of the GATA pressure group maintain that it is only central bank collusion that keeps gold prices low, and that collusion is breaking down with even the IMF now actively canvassing rule changes to make this a more transparent market. Gold will also likely be an alternative asset class of choice if global stock markets tumble and the US real estate crash spreads. This happened in the mid-1970s and it can happen again in the 2000s, as post-crash investors look for a new asset class and do not rush back to where they have just been burned. Leveraging this forward price momentum for gold will therefore likely become a major investment theme of the next few years. And gold stocks will be a favorite method. For as the gold price rises, mining costs remain relatively static and so the profits of gold companies increase by a higher percentage than the metal itself. 

Golden juniors
Also junior mining and exploration companies with claims may find that their modest assets suddenly zoom up in value as producers seek new sources of gold and bid up their value. That is why the highest leverage to a rising gold price can be obtained by buying smaller gold companies in a boom. This is where the hundred-fold increases will be found in the next gold boom, as in the late 1970s, although the metal itself and the bigger companies will provide very large rewards at a time when other asset classes may struggle to deliver returns. At the moment many investors take a small position in gold as a hedge against troubled times, and they will take an even bigger position when things do go wrong, so buy now while gold stocks are relatively cheap.


----------



## bigdog

Who are the major Gold producers on Aust Stock Exchange? 

Newcrest, Newmont and Lihir

Are there any others?


----------



## reece55

Well, they are diversified, but put OXR in the mix here too.....

With Prominent Hill and AGC bedded down, they will be a majority gold producer from memory.....

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

reece55 said:


> Well, they are diversified, but put OXR in the mix here too.....
> 
> With Prominent Hill and AGC bedded down, they will be a majority gold producer from memory.....
> 
> Cheers



Surprisingly, going to be Zn and Cu actually. But, yes, lots of gold too.


----------



## bean

Gold Bulls what has happened when the various stock market indexes get in a blow off top and eventually crash. Does gold and gold shares
Rise
Fall
Fall then Rise

maybe its time to check and be prepared


----------



## bean

I suppose those that will show charts with gold breaking out and above $690 will be back in force over the next few days and bringing there buy buy sounds ringing.
The only reason it will be up is the DOW will (should) be up most probably the next three to four days in a row as it blows (pop)
So far the DOW lately has been 8 up 1 down 7 up 1 down we ar now 2 up and through a magic 13000.  
Gold bugs apart from being in gold because inflation (caused by M3 money supply) US$ a fiat currency (so is ours and most of the other western countries) the US economy is going into a recession, housing and Asset bubbles the list goes on and on.
We also know it will end badly and investors will flock to gold as a save haven.  But we also know any market 'Crash' gold stocks and gold will be sold as well.  The only thing is our recovery will be quicker and larger as our Bull resumes.

Those who think the DOW is in a bubble (blowing its top)  do you hold your gold stocks?  What size of a correction initially on the DOW do you expect when this top is reached . 10% 15% 20%
Then Maybe a bear for a few years after as well.
Me personally I hope its the 3rd and in quick time.
If it is some gold stocks 20% to 50% cheaper (why such a large drop? You have seen how quick gold stocks % wise) The price of Gold?? $580? I don't know I will take each day as it comes (I will know when to buy for me).


----------



## bean

Now I did say gold may be up last night as the DOW would finish up 
Well the DOW was up the S&P 500 was down (admititly just but down none the less) Gold indexes did drop a bit more so follow the S&P they did.
On monday when I mentioned possible drop in gold price tuesday or wednesday I was out by a day can't help bad luck.  But it doesn't matter to me I am cashed up waiting for when I know to get in.  Off course Gold may be up tonight but how much longer does the DOW rise before the sell off stars and that includes Gold

I also have my own programs on US gold stocks indexes and they had showed signs of weaking,  but I only use it as a guide and see if I am getting a similar picture to the sites I follow.

Don't worry about China it is the top in the DOW you worry about.
Off course China may drop and could force a top in the DOW but it would have to be soon


----------



## Kauri

As far as the E/W count goes I have no idea where gold is at currently, but the channel is proving a good guide to trades at the moment.


----------



## bean

Right I have told where the price of gold is going.  I would now like some stocks that may be good buys in the coming weeks to do research on before I buy I would Like some  Juniors and medium cap stocks that are non hedged could be liable for a takeover ane can increase there reserves.  Lets out some suggestions up before the botton is in for gold so we know which stocks may be bargains.  
I am leaving myself open to the so called gold bulls at the moment who will mock  me if gold shots past $700.  
But to those that thought I might be right lets look for good gold stocks that will fall but will be excellant value (lets put Gold dropping to say $580-$620 in next few weeks) maybe we can be prepared.
I cannot put charts and more charts because I visualise I look at numbers and I see patterns I read and I see patterns. For example Elliot wave how many times have they called a top (AH but they always have an alternative count how many of those have we had over the last ten years !!! I am not mocking them but neither should they know me because I could say I have an alternative count to.)
Look sometimes logic comes into an equation as well. COT's had risen over the last weeks.
I posted from elliot wave the $US  has it not rallied the last few days when everyone was calling it stuff.
Gold bulls we are impatient because we know we are right at that is why we invest in gold but if the market goes so do we.


----------



## bean

For gold bugs I post the following on _Imminent and severe market correction_ thread. 

As you Know I have been saying we will follow the broader market




		Code:
	

Re: Imminent and severe market correction
More on my earlier post THE TOP IS IN ????

My program is showing a small down day will turn this market.
If I entered a small down day on previous days this market has been rising my signals for the next five days remain positive.
If I enter a small down on Nasdaq the first two days drop to neutral reading and next three out a negative.
For the DOW and NYSE the first two days are still positive third is neutral four and fith are negative.

What does this show, It shows as this market has been rising its internals have been weakening.

The top may not be in of course if it rises monday.
But who can say when a top is in?
The day after!!!

Will it be a short term top or the final.
I do not know yet.
Reply With Quote


----------



## bean

First the market well the NASDAQ oblidged last night I only watched the first half and the we had the DOW wanting to go up and the Nasdaq down.
By the end of the day the NASDAQ won.
I did quote that the Nasdaq if it had a down day Monday would be set up for a 2-3% down day Tuesday.
All I can say is if tonight is down and any major weekness come in the answer is still YES
And if weakness continues into Wednesday I would expect the Dow to join the party fully then.

Gold and golds were down last night.  I hope over the last week or two you have seen what I have said about  Gold and Gold stocks following the general direction  of the Stock Market (DOW).

Here on earlier posts I mention US $ may rally.  I also said Nasdaq above 2550 would be back in its bubble territory.  I am also looking for Gold and Gold stocks to crash but they have to do it along with the general market, so they can eventually break free and start up (Elliot wave 3).

Was that the final Top? 

If the first part of what I mentioned pans out yes.

However, yes however there is still strenght in the DOW & NYSE it still wants to go higher although it has weakened slightly a number of indicators are still quite strongly positive and may require what I have mention above.

Tonight and tomorrow hold the key as to whether this is the start of a severve correction or not or a breather before the Dow advances and it has to advance with strenght because the ‘Nasdaq needs help’


----------



## bean

Gold bugs you have several questions I need to give answers to 
otherwise 
you will start to discount what I have been saying. (The bears will 
agree the bulls may still need convincing)
.
Gold and gold indexes dropped last night while the general market was 
up. True
However they moved up from there lows when the market rose.
Nasdaq did not drop 2-3%. True but I did say we needed weakness and 
also 
mentioned the DOW still had strength and wanted to rise. The Nasdaq at 
one stage was 15 point down but the was want to go higher.
The TOP IS IN - TRUE
Believe it or not it is
NYSE closed last wed 9746

I called the top Friday
Friday NYSE 9705 today 9640
S&P 500 1494 today 1486
Nasdaq 2557 today 2531

The only one is the DOW and what will be said the Dow has made a new 
record.
The DOW is carrying the market.

All US markets internals are at a danger stage and dropping each day
My Nasdaq reading today is neutral the the trend next 5 days all 
negative (and the negativity is increasing)
The question to ask is how longer can the DOW hold up the market.
Are the market internals positioning themselves for a “CRASH”
Yes a CRASH.. If it is indeed a ‘crash day’ then I may only pick it up 
one or two days before

Gold nothing has changed it may move up if the Dow advances and the 
indexes follow.
BUT remember it will fall with them as well.
US $ is it trying to rally or get traction?

I have also started to see a few gold writers come up and turn short 
term bearish on gold.
Pity how they didn’t mention it a few weeks ago

It all depends if any advance the Dow makes the rest of the market has to move with strength  then I will be wrong/delayed


----------



## BlueDaze

*Price Targets for Gold, HUI, XAU Bottoms*

Hi bean,

I've been reading your gold postings with great interest. Do you share wavepicker's view that gold will bottom below $500?

Wavepicker (7 Dec 06): "From a technical stand point, my target is approximately $490 which is 50% of the entire range from the low of $250 to the high of $730. It could go as low as $430. My guess it will take a good 2 years, before finishing, and then the secular bull resuming (in 2009). Don't think this correction is quite over, with more sideways/downward bias till the 8.5 year cycle bottoms in 2008/2009."

I've read other EW views that the HUI and XAU indexs will decline 30-40% over the next 2-3 months. And gold to decline to its long-term trend line at the $470-500 level. I view these as major buying opportunities.

Look forward to your comments. Tks and regards.


----------



## bean

> Hi bean,
> 
> I've been reading your gold postings with great interest. Do you share wavepicker's view that gold will bottom below $500?
> 
> Wavepicker (7 Dec 06): "From a technical stand point, my target is approximately $490 which is 50% of the entire range from the low of $250 to the high of $730. It could go as low as $430. My guess it will take a good 2 years, before finishing, and then the secular bull resuming (in 2009). Don't think this correction is quite over, with more sideways/downward bias till the 8.5 year cycle bottoms in 2008/2009."
> 
> I've read other EW views that the HUI and XAU indexs will decline 30-40% over the next 2-3 months. And gold to decline to its long-term trend line at the $470-500 level. I view these as major buying opportunities.




First the correction in the indexs,  I have been showing over the last few weeks how gold and the gold indexes have been following the Market.
On 16th April the closing price of HUI 368.28 and XAU 148.11
Last nights close 337.07 and 136.27 
They have already corrected 8% only about 30% to go????
Hard to believe that they have already dropped that much. cosidering they have been following the market
However the next 30% will be quicker  my timeframe is less it was 1-2months

The last part of the jigsaw is falling into place and that is the Stock Market
The fall required by Gold stocks needs the Market to participate because there is no valid reason for Gold and the stocks to drop.
Every reason that Gold Bugs hold Gold and Gold shares stills exits and more reasons are added each day.

This final correction in Gold is going to be brought about by the US market

I knew I needed a top to come in the Markets it was the only way to justify the drop that is about to occur in Gold.

The % drop in the Market take your pick but if we are dropping 30%
what are they going to drop.

The volume in the US markets has increased... I think everyone is in wait till they try and get out. 

Gold stocks have dropped 8% gold has dropped just over 3%
I put a range a few posts back $580-$620 no reason just a number.
However based on the % of drop if shares drop 32% more gold 12%
price today approx $670 could take it to $590

Gold won't drop as much as shares but it will pick up % ratio put it half drop 16% (half of the 32% the share drop) round number $560 say 

If it were to drop same amount 32% is $455

So the $500 line may well be reached this move, and the time frame is the only thing I disagree with wavepicker I think it will be now 2007 not 2009

and probably not $500 but I won't know till it starts.
only a guess for most bearish $535 but I do not know as I only know what prices I am looking for in the Gold indexes 
$535 is a price in my memory from about 6 months ago, and I can't remember why.

I hope that bit on the % and ratios made sense


----------



## BlueDaze

*Know Only When It Starts*



bean said:


> First the correction in the indexs, I have been showing over the last few weeks how gold and the gold indexes have been following the Market.
> 
> They have already corrected 8% only about 30% to go? Hard to believe that they have already dropped that much cosidering they have been following the market. However, the next 30% will be quicker, my timeframe is less it was 1-2months.
> 
> The last part of the jigsaw is falling into place and that is the Stock Market. The fall required by Gold stocks needs the Market to participate because there is no valid reason for Gold and the stocks to drop. Every reason that Gold Bugs hold Gold and Gold shares stills exits and more reasons are added each day.
> 
> This final correction in Gold is going to be brought about by the US market.
> 
> I knew I needed a top to come in the Markets it was the only way to justify the drop that is about to occur in Gold.
> 
> Gold won't drop as much as shares but it will pick up % ratio put it half drop 16% (half of the 32% the share drop) round number $560 say
> 
> If it were to drop same amount 32% is $455
> 
> So the $500 line may well be reached this move, and the time frame is the only thing I disagree with wavepicker I think it will be now 2007 not 2009
> 
> And probably not $500 but I won't know till it starts.



Thank you for sharing your thoughts. It is much appreciated.


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold Stocks' Leverage (or lack thereof)*

*Gold Stocks' Leverage (or lack thereof)*
Steve Saville
email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
May 1, 2007

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville050107.html

Most people involved in the gold sector would realise that over the past few years gold stocks, as a group, have failed to live-up to their reputation as leveraged plays on the gold price. They provided substantial leverage to gains in the gold price during 2001-2003, but during the most recent 3.5 years of the gold bull market an investment in gold bullion has out-performed an investment in the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI). Given that gold stocks are much riskier than gold bullion, this begs the question: why invest in gold stocks?

Before answering the above question we'll take a look at why gold stocks have performed relatively poorly since late-2003 and see if the historical record offers any clues as to what might happen in the future.

We think the following chart-based comparison of the yield-spread (the 30-year interest rate divided by the 5-year interest rate), the gold/GYX ratio (gold relative to a basket of industrial metals), and the HUI/gold ratio contains the reasons for the relatively strong performance of the gold sector during 2001-2003 and its relatively weak performance thereafter. The chart shows that as the yield-spread widened (as short-term interest rates fell relative to long-term interest rates), gold trended higher relative to industrial metals and the HUI provided substantial leverage to gains in the gold price. However, the ability of gold stocks to leverage gains in the gold price evaporated when the yield-spread began to contract and gold began to under-perform the industrial metals.

The crux of the matter is that during 2001-2003 the financial markets were responding to economic weakness, falling liquidity and aggressive rate-cutting on the parts of central banks. In this environment the yield-spread widened and counter-cyclical gold did well relative to cyclical commodities such as the industrial metals, causing the profit margins of gold miners to expand. However, by late-2003 the markets had begun to discount stronger growth, leading to increased financial market liquidity and strength in cyclical commodities relative to counter-cyclical gold. The rising liquidity tide ended up lifting all boats including the golden boat, but in this environment the profit margins of the major gold producers contracted as the cost of mining gold increased faster than the gold price. As a result, gold stocks performed poorly on a relative basis.

It is also worth mentioning that whereas the aboveground supply of gold increases at a slow and steady 1.5-2.0% per year, year-in and year-out regardless of what is happening to the gold price, a gold bull market invariably leads to a rapid increase in the supply of gold shares. As the gold bull market becomes more widely recognised the rate of increase in the supply of gold shares tends to accelerate due, firstly, to the arrival on the scene of many new gold mining companies and, secondly, to most managers of small gold mining companies being embedded with a gene that prevents them from saying "no thanks" when presented with the opportunity to raise money by issuing more shares. In other words, the supply of gold bullion is severely constrained whereas the supply of gold shares can be - and usually is - expanded rapidly in response to rising demand.




Interestingly, the performance of the gold sector relative to gold bullion during the current bull market is not dissimilar to its performance during the bull market of the 1960s and 1970s (the gold price was fixed at $35/ounce prior to 1971, but the performance of the gold sector of the stock market indicates that a gold bull market actually began in the early-1960s). Specifically, the following chart of the BGMI/gold ratio (the Barrons Gold Mining Index divided by the gold price) shows that relative to gold bullion the major gold stocks peaked in 1968 and then trended lower for the next 12 years.




The above chart should give pause to those who believe that a drop in the HUI/gold ratio or the XAU/gold ratio to a particular level automatically means that it's a good time to aggressively buy gold stocks. Today's secular gold bull market is probably going to continue for many more years, but if it follows a similar pattern to the previous secular bull market then the major gold stocks will move much higher in nominal dollar terms over the next several years while moving lower in gold terms.

We'll now return to the question: why invest in gold stocks?

As we've said numerous times in TSI commentaries over the past few years, we don't think there is a good reason to favour the MAJOR gold stocks over gold bullion. There will be periods when the large-cap gold stocks trend higher relative to the metal, especially those periods when the yield-spread is widening and gold is out-performing industrial commodities. Such periods will offer opportunities to go 'long' these stocks for intermediate-term trades, but we think long-term investors will be better-served by the bullion. In our opinion, the large-cap gold stocks do not offer enough upside potential, relative to gold bullion, to warrant long-term investors taking-on the additional risk inherent in the stocks.

However, junior gold stocks in general and exploration-stage gold stocks in particular are a different 'kettle of fish'. Despite their risky nature, there are plenty of stocks at this end of the market that have sufficient upside potential relative to the bullion to enable a good case to be made for accepting the risk. Of course, speculators in these stocks must be emotionally equipped to handle high volatility and must diversify to mitigate the effect on the portfolio of a big problem with any single stock.


----------



## yachty7

Mr Bean,
I also have been following your postings, and thanks for sharing the considerable work you do. I'm new at this game & the more research I do the more confused I get.  I hit the panick button a month or so ago, sold shares that I shouldn't have & bought Gold!! Now I'm getting nervous again & when I panick I lose. I try to analyse both the Tech Analyst's views, the Fundamentalyst's views & the Gold bug's views. An article by John Ing, May 1 on Safe Haven http://www.safehaven.com/article-7471.htm, argues (like many on that site) Gold  is about to take off  - a short extract follows;

 $1,000 Gold Is A Certainty
_Gold is the ultimate safe haven against inflation and falling stock markets, and it is a hedge against a weaker U.S. dollar. Indeed, gold is a good index of currency fears. Given our expectation of continued favourable supply-demand fundamentals, we expect gold to retest the January 1980 high at $850 an ounce this year, with a new target at $1,000 an ounce. While $1000 may appear overly optimistic, it is important to remember that gold rose nearly 3,000 percent from 1971 to 1980 and is only up 166 percent from its low in 1999._

I hear what you say about cycles, waves, history repeating etc. I also thought the arguements presented in John Ing's article were plausible. Maybe wishfull thinking on my part, but I would really appreciate your views on those arguements.
Many thanks.


----------



## bean

Is tonight going to be the second night in a row where gold and golds stocks finish in a different colour to the market
Currently Dow up 42 ,Nasfaq 7 ,S &P 4  while gold down $6.50 and indexes in the red.
Market been opened 10 minutes,  I wonder if in the morning all four are the same colour why I check


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold Bottom In Late June 2007*

*McClellen's Report*:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19306350

We keep seeing additional confirmations that this uptrend has more room to run. Breadth is still about as strong as it can be, and we are starting to see the right sorts of “leadership” stocks taking over and leading the way higher. The Nasdaq 100 was tentative earlier this year, but is now acting strong, and bellwethers IBM and GE are leading the DJIA higher with no loss of momentum. These are the kinds of signs that promise us higher highs, even if we see minor stumbles along the way. We look for this uptrend to reach a terminal top around mid-July, and the market should start to have some real trouble beginning in late August. This autumn is when we should expect ugliness to arrive. Bond prices have paused their normal seasonal decline here but should start downward again aggressively in June.

Gold prices are headed downward from here to a May 30 bottom, but that will not be the end of it. Gold should see some more ugliness along with stocks into a bottom due roughly *June 20*.

Stocks are still in an uptrend, and due to remain that way into summer. There will be bumps along the way, but the uptrend is not done yet. As it appears now, the blast to the final price high of the summer should commence from a low at the end of June, and presumably that price blast will be accompanied by the sorts of telltale divergences we count on for clues that momentum is lost. Bonds don’t show us enough in these signals to divine an expected trend direction, but we still view the overall structure as being a downtrend for bond prices.

Gold looks weak now, and has broken its correlation to stock prices. Look for gold stocks to see a bottom at the end of May, and then a more important one in late June.


----------



## bean

O/K first last night post and why did I post it.
The result first Gold did finish down but only $1.20 nearly made it to 
green
The gold stock indexs XAU and HUI finshed up 2.68% and 1.39%

If they had finish down it may have brought into question the comments 
I 
have been making about them following the General market.
And may have also started thinking are the gold stocks going to correct 
by themselves for some other reason not a severe stock market collapse.

My readings for my program on the indexes I follow are showing 
nutural-slightly negative-slightly negative. They want to drop further 
but appear to be waiting for the market.


----------------------------------------------


> mentioned the DOW still had strength and wanted to rise. The Nasdaq at
> one stage was 15 point down but the was want to go higher.
> The TOP IS IN - TRUE
> Believe it or not it is
> NYSE closed last wed 9746
> 
> I called the top Friday
> Friday NYSE 9705 today 9640
> S&P 500 1494 today 1486
> Nasdaq 2557 today 2531



The only one is the DOW and what will be said the Dow has made a new
record.
The DOW is carrying the market.

Strength is still in the DOW and it is carrying the markets (new high 
in 
the DOW)
Todays close
NYSE 9718 still below last Wednesday high 9746
S&P 1496 just above 1494
Nasdaq 2558 just above 2557

Watch each day as it comes and look for weakness to give a signal






> I follow several people that give analysis. One such person is Jeff
> Kern
> (ski )who updates every three or so weeks on 321gold. He has his own
> subscription site. I do not subscribe to his site however know his
> system (partly)




One of his subcribers showed gold bottoming topping in months of MAY 
and November.
Give or take aday or so.  They are looking for a bottom and a run pattern.
If you go to his site and read last few updates (he gives partly free 
updates every three weeks or so)

The other site I mention Martin Goldberg who does updates each Thursday 
on financial sense does gold updates every now and then and I have been 
watching what he picked up that gold indexes have been following the 
general market.


We just have to watch the DOW
Some strength came into my Nasdaq reading to all the negatives dropped 
to nuteral so action of the next few days interesting to see if more 
strength appears if it does then others market will give strength to 
the 
DOW and what 13500 -14000???
“I don’t think that will happen” but???


----------



## Uncle Festivus

This weeks price fluctuations are probably distorted because the usual large gold trading countries are having numerous holidays. Next week should be back to a more normal trading pattern and back to the real direction, whether that be up or down.
The trading range so far this week is within 'normal' trend settings & the ascending triangle is still intact (so far!).

The DOW - end of reporting season this week, resumption of other markets next week. Maybe consolidation or 'sell in May'?


----------



## bean

Overnight

GOLD STOCKS AND GOLD UP THE US MARKET UP

The big and bigger picture is still in place.

Over the past 6 months or so gold stocks and gold to a degree have been 
following S&P500 (US markets in general)
I think I have shown you over the last 3 weeks that this is the case.

US Recession 2nd qtr this year? Oct – dec
Markets may react/correct up to 6 months in advance APRIL – JUNE.

Last year some analysis I read who are bearish re the above were still 
calling DOW 13000 first
And to occur first half of the year JUNE or earlier

We have GOLD BEARS WHO ARE SAYING 30-40% CORRECTION 2-3months

Period - APRIL MAY JUNE

GOLD BOTTOM – MAY – JUNE
For a bottom to be in place a top must be in!!!!!!
Two – Three weeks before hand

Because we all know the gold indexes can fall hard and correct 30% 
within a few weeks.

Also if market rallies – as I have shown gold stocks are following if 
it 
rises to much Gold and shares will turn bullish?

Also we have the US$ in place it has been bouncing arround its lows for 
about 3-4 weeks.

Why you may ask has it not moved DROP/RALLY

If THE $ FALLS GOLD WILL RALLY - TRUE/FALSE.
It it falls puts Gold correction out?

But if and when it rallys it will be as an initial safe haven - as the 
Market Crashes?
Has no other reason to rally?

That is why it is still where it is.
But it has been there for a long time so it is not going to stay there 
for too much longer without making a move and a large one ???

If Gold stocks are going to drop 30-40% and it is goimg to be brought 
about by the market falling?
The scenario I see for the market is a CRASH/SEVERE CORRECTION ?
Not a 5-10% correction ?

-- And everything will fall – except the $ which will rise ????

EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE – EXCEPT THE TOP ON THE DOW (US MARKETS)
WHEN DOES THE CORRECTION BEGIN WHEN THE FINAL PIECE IS IN PLACE?
1-5 DAYS ???

Note you may disagree completely with what I have mentioned.
You may agree or disagree in parts
The time frame for the start of the correction is shrinking
BUT THINK ABOUT IT.

I also use my own program on market and gold to give me an idea. Ialso 
try to read into what the numbers are saying.


----------



## Kauri

Resisted the strong temptation to jump on gold on the last up bar, expecting a triangular W4 to develop?? (My absolute-bottom picking attempts are not faring too well lately i.e. forex and the Loonie).


----------



## bean

Gold Nearly $700 before $500-$600. 



> yes to call a crash you must have reasons and a time frame and why its going to be a crash or start a very severe correction and one which may be long lasting. Tonight a quick look at the futures saw gold up so knew straight away  US markets were going to be up. CALL a TOP wednesday or thursday next week.  What the DOW will get to 13650 give or take (1000 points) sorry one extra zero.




Posted this tonight on severe market correction for fun.
However it was not for fun.  I see gold topping next *Tuesday Wednesday* or at very latest thursday at what price I do not know.  But I think it is falling into place? 
But I need one day at a time because it could be altered to what I am seeing and looking for.  Could we possibly see almost 14000(not quiet) on the DOW by then???? 
Is this the complete blowoff?  The end for the Bull on the DOW and like breaking the mirror seven years bad luck!!!!
And S#%T will hit the fan??

And what Gold bulls and every bear have been expecting for the last XX years.
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1178290800.php

NEED MORE DATA!!!!
Is the top Tuesday or wednesday


----------



## bean

Tuesday or wednesday refers to US  days.
But the markets will be up tonight, monday and more than likely Tuesday night
DO not be sucked in.


----------



## BlueDaze

*Countdown...*



bean said:


> Gold Nearly $700 before $500-$600.
> 
> I see gold topping next *Tuesday Wednesday* or at very latest Thursday at what price I do not know.



bean,

Tks for the heads-up. I will be holding on to my gold portfolio, and hope to add new/more bullion+HUI stocks if gold drops to the $500-600 zone. You don't think gold will fall below $500? If based on Fib support, there is strong support at the 50% retracement level of $488.


----------



## Kauri

Bean
         Have you traded short yet on any of your analysis so far, or are you still waiting for the blow-off before putting your shorts on??


----------



## CanOz

This really powered up after the release of the job data, i suppose the rational being that the fed would not raise rates so gold would be a better place to be than the greenback.

Would have made a great intraday trade.

Cheers,


----------



## bean

To Blue Daze a brilliant chart it see what I may be seeing.
I do not short.
I am 100% cash at the moment except for silver bullion.
If I said I am not allowed to what stocks I want to buy and what price.
I am a silver bug first so
MMN I hope under 20 cents
I am a CTO last sold at 41 cents when Gold was US$640
I hope say 30cents
I have also held or bought and may look at them again
TRY my first gold @ about 50cents and LHG but no more once hedging out the door.
IGR,KMN,CRE? but I really would like some mid tiers who can expand there reserves or may be subject to takeove bids for the next leg up when it begins. I will only invest in max of two gold and two silver stocks.  the remaining 20% is uranium or oil stocks
I have not been studying individual stocks over the last month brcause I have been focusing on this.  To me what may be happening is a once in a lifetime opportunity of predicting a market crash. to see if my systems work
or give me a clue and years of reading and remembering numbers and facts work. 
I want to make money on stocks  (GOLD) but to see patterns unfolding is greater pressure weather it be bullish or bearish


----------



## bean

TRY @ 50 was when I first bought but have long since sold


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> This really powered up after the release of the job data, i suppose the rational being that the fed would not raise rates so gold would be a better place to be than the greenback.
> 
> Would have made a great intraday trade.
> 
> Cheers,




  If you follow Gartley or Pesavanto  then it was a near perfect set-up, a bearish 2 I think from memory.


----------



## BlueDaze

*Contrarian Sentiment Indicators*

bean,

Next week's anticipated US market (and gold) crash may have to hold off for a little while more...

*AAII Poll Shows Widespread Bearishness: Time To Buy*
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/34520

*AAII Sentiment: Now More Bearish After Market Rise*
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/aaii-sentiment-now-more-bearish-after-market-rise-904.html

Btw, have you considered that the trigger for a world-wide market (and gold) crash may not be the US Dow/SPX but the Chinese Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSEC). SSEC is facing a multiple-year resistance point soon at around the 4189 level.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article838.html


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold, Silver, Uranium & Oil*



bean said:


> I am 100% cash at the moment except for silver bullion. I am a silver bug first.
> 
> I will only invest in max of two gold and two silver stocks.
> 
> The remaining 20% is uranium or oil stocks.



I'm a gold bug (obviously) as I view gold as the only "honest money". Silver has lost its monetary qualities. But I must admit I also hold some small amount of silver bullion - greed got the better of me... If gold and gold stocks really fall hard, I'm keen to buy:

- Kinross (K.TO)
- GAM.TO (pure gold and silver producer in Mexico)
- Silver Wheaton (SLW.TO)

Also hold some uranium and oil stocks, mainly in Cameco (CCO.TO) and DML.TO

Hope to pick up Khan Resources (KRI.TO) if it falls to around the C$3.5 level.


----------



## bean

Right what is good when I have a question.  Because it makes one re evaluate what you are doing and I may be under the illusion I am seeing that may actually not be happening it could be something different.  I will try and explain as best as I can.  I have spent the last 3 hours analysing putting in different variation etc

The first I am completely wrong.

Gold is ready to break out and the Dollar crash 
With that I was left to wonder what the market would do Follow the US$ or follow gold.
I have shown that gold stocks and gold are following the market to a degree
I have also said that if the market falls gold stock will follow and gold would as well

The US $ is sitting near its lows so we would think it going to do something Rally/crash

There is no longer US$ and gold because we now have the market at a blow off top???
If I was just looking at US$ and Gold we would know one up one down
Gold is near US$700 a good break above it and it will turn bullish?

Monday  M  Tuesday  T  Wednesday  W    thusday   TH
If markets up say M T W
My gold index turns bullish T or W
That Ski index gets a signal T or W  (as I don’t subscribe this is one of two things it turns a buy however I think it mark a high)
Run pattern for his index marks a hight (I think) or very close to it.
GOLD if it rise M T W it will then be up 5 days in a row (not good) It generally falls on the sixth but it may only be one day.  The up days have gone past five and has continued further on some occasions

I entered the Stock markets as rising M T W  
I already know they are overbought but can still rise for ages.  However I get a reading does not happen often a few times a year or when market may do a good advance and takes a breather. 
These reading are extremely high.
Now that doe not mean a crash or it just means it needs a breather.  It might be next day or a few days later it might drop less than 1% but only went back a few years but on one day it dropped nearly 4%


I have based the above on the DOW rising.
If I do it different I get things all over the place and the US$ gold and markets going in different directions!!!
The above is quite easy to tell if I am right or wrong.
A down day M or T and I will have to see if a different pattern is taking shape

Comments are good because it makes one think and drive drink.

Remember I am trying to also justify what I am seeing.  If Monday is down say I have to at a different pattern.

And who in there right mind can pick what the market is going to do 4 days in a row
Oh Thursday that’s down.


----------



## bean

Futher to the above when I said my gold index would turn bullish.
I would not buy if gold is up the five days.
And if gold/gold indexs were to drop it would be nearly turning my index  it back to bearish showing a false breakout?


----------



## bean

*i now have the trigger*
The Fed meets on wenesday on interest rates.
Every market is in place for there decision

Gold ready to break out
US$ ready to break down
And stock market making new highs into an overbought position.

Are they going to take a hardening stace???
_____________________________________
*If they ease* 

Gold breaks higher ?
US$ collapases?
Market Goes higher?
But they (Central banks ) have lost control of Gold ?
And have lost control of the US$?
Then you have a domino effect on world Markets as ther currencies rise.
There stock Markets should fall?
Which would then bring the US market down as world markets go into red?
_______________________________________
*A hardening stance **or keeping **the same*

Brings the Market down?
Gold down?
And the US $ up?
And world markets down?

Gold on falling marks its bottom and rises breaking free from 
The markets and more importantly the US$

------------------------------------

EVERYTHING IS ALINGED
Am I to BEARISH ?????
And to BULLISH FOR GOLD?????
But expect gold to drop and then break free

Is this the financial mess GOLD BULLS we have been expecting?

Is this the start of the FED - LOSING CONTROL
OR HAVE THEY LOST IT?????
---------==
-------------
My main dilemma
I mentioned Gold up 5 days should drop.
But if it was coming from a low could rise more days
I don’t think last week was the low???

Does the stock  market mon – wed have to rise on all of those those days???
I still think it does or does it drop one day?

Don’t have long to wait


----------



## Kimosabi

If the US Fed lowers Interest Rates, watch out, because the Bear has just crashed the Party.


----------



## CanOz

Kimosabi said:


> If the US Fed lowers Interest Rates, watch out, because the Bear has just crashed the Party.




hmmm, yeah i tend to agree, if the FOMC leaves rates the same we should see a slight increase in the POG, a slight drop in the dollar and the share markets shouldn't really be affected too much IMO. Most of the markets would have already priced this in by now.

A drop in the Fed rate would basically be an acknowledgement of a slumping economy in need of an injection really wouldn't it?

My bet is they keep them unchanged. 

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kimosabi said:


> If the US Fed lowers Interest Rates, watch out, because the Bear has just crashed the Party.




K-bots ,
I think rates will remain steady until there are signs that the US economy has well and truly tanked via the GDP data, which has yet to be seen. 
So the $US may actually strengthen this week if rates stay the same, and gold may back off a bit more.


----------



## Kimosabi

Uncle Festivus said:


> K-bots ,.





hahaha, thats classic


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> K-bots ,
> I think rates will remain steady until there are signs that the US economy has well and truly tanked via the GDP data, which has yet to be seen.
> So the $US may actually strengthen this week if rates stay the same, and gold may back off a bit more.




Not sure i agree UF that it will strengthen? Flat or down yes, but whats the motive to invest in the greenback if rates stay the same? Lately it seems like every bit of negative data to come out of the US has pushed the dollar down, the FED leaving rates unchanged would only confirm that those decisions were correct yes? 

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Not sure i agree UF that it will strengthen? Flat or down yes, but whats the motive to invest in the greenback if rates stay the same? Lately it seems like every bit of negative data to come out of the US has pushed the dollar down, the FED leaving rates unchanged would only confirm that those decisions were correct yes?
> 
> Cheers,




A bit of contrarian thinking CanOz, as I am amazed that the $US has held up so well. Logic would agree with you, but with a trivial matter of the worlds biggest economy at stake I'm sure there will be some extremely powerful forces at work to ensure the $US index won't go anywhere near the major support around 80 or so. 

So it still has some premium to some other currencies so I think it will be steady as she goes for rates unchanged outcome. Any strengthening would be from a technicaly oversold rebound. Silly but probable 

However, if it does breach 80 then the game is over and you can then pick your own price for gold I think


----------



## bean

Interest rates in US.
We have three market at various breakout points.
Gold ready to break to new highs
The US$ near its lows
And the DOW making new highs each day (blow off top???)

And the above comments are as though nothing is going to happen!!!!!

Get real

If Gold breaks out the US$ is gone
The FED has to stop gold.
And if it means upsetting the market than they will.

The market is expecting easing in the wording.
If they do Gold will be up like a shot to new highs and the dollar tanking.

If they don't say easing the market will tank..

So you have a choice whats going to tank


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Interest rates in US.
> We have three market at various breakout points.
> Gold ready to break to new highs
> The US$ near its lows
> And the DOW making new highs each day (blow off top???)
> 
> And the above comments are as though nothing is going to happen!!!!!
> 
> Get real
> 
> If Gold breaks out the US$ is gone
> The FED has to stop gold.
> And if it means upsetting the market than they will.
> 
> The market is expecting easing in the wording.
> If they do Gold will be up like a shot to new highs and the dollar tanking.
> 
> If they don't say easing the market will tank..
> 
> So you have a choice whats going to tank



You really do like the gold thread Bean!  So, what's your call? $US tank and Gold pushing on to all time highs?

I think POG is effected by three things really and needs them all to align for appreciation.

Geopolitical tension
Oil up effecting US inflation
$US weakness.

Once they all align to their various degrees, POG up.


----------



## bean

> You really do like the gold thread Bean!  So, what's your call? $US tank and Gold pushing on to all time highs?




I have been in the Gold correction camp.
Because if the US$ tanks the US market will follow because world market will correct as their currencies rise.  including Australia

But I have been showing US Gold indexes have been following the markets.
SO I think the market will tank including Gold.

Because the FED can try and save the market down the track by easing interest rates and try a recovery that way, as the US will be heading into a recession.

But if the US$ tanks it has no floor on the charts so where do they find support for it.
Also financial turmoil and they will still have the Markets dropping caused by world markets dropping.

But if US$ market drops initial supportive will flee to the US$ causing it to rise. 
Sentiment on the US$ is so negative what an excellent time for it to rally

You will know this week if I am right or wrong.

And either way the Australian market is going to correct..
Either with a rising Aussie $
or falling markets

And there is your recipe.


----------



## explod

bean said:


> I have been in the Gold correction camp.
> Because if the US$ tanks the US market will follow because world market will correct as their currencies rise.  including Australia
> 
> But I have been showing US Gold indexes have been following the markets.
> SO I think the market will tank including Gold.
> 
> Because the FED can try and save the market down the track by easing interest rates and try a recovery that way, as the US will be heading into a recession.
> 
> But if the US$ tanks it has no floor on the charts so where do they find support for it.
> Also financial turmoil and they will still have the Markets dropping caused by world markets dropping.
> 
> But if US$ market drops initial supportive will flee to the US$ causing it to rise.
> Sentiment on the US$ is so negative what an excellent time for it to rally
> 
> You will know this week if I am right or wrong.
> 
> And either way the Australian market is going to correct..
> Either with a rising Aussie $
> or falling markets
> 
> And there is your recipe.





What a load of crap.   In the 60s you could buy a house for about $5,000.  Today a standard house, perhaps a bit flasher for $300,000  So what has gone wrong, inflation........or is it the money, paper money is losing its value.   In Germany early last century it took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a pie at the end of their financial collapse.   We have seen this in many countries over time since the Romans.  (Rhodesia at the moment) Anyone serious about good investing needs to study the money side of things and its relationship to gold which has been the basic form of exchange for thousands of years.    Due to massive debt it is happening to the US dollar now.   Although it has moved violently in value in times of financial turmoil, overall gold has retained its value throughout history.    Worth about $40 an ounce in the sixties, hit $900 in 1980 and climbing again now.   However because it appeared to be a threat to the paper money system in the 70s and 80s the governments of the developed countries and the central bankers got together to try and cap gold and did so very successfully till recently.  First the central banks are fast running out of it, second, world gold production is down dramatically and finally because money is losing value, particularly if it just sits in the bank wise investors (in my view) are accumulating the stuff.    Now I could go on and on but I am sure if you want you can find out more, and if you want to insure your wealth you should, you can 'Google it"   Very soon gold will go up to a price and a rate that will astound.    There may be a few days when the price of gold will be pushed down on the fall of the stock markets but the big money will soon know that the only way to insure themselve against the loss of their wealth will be by turning suddenly to prescious metals, in particular gold

What I am trying to get across, not very well, is that the thread is about gold, stock markets and gold do not have a lot to do with each other except for mining stocks.   Gold is about wealth in the hand, ie. money...currencies    Anyway I am sure there are better heads to this discussion that can put things right, but the discussion on gold as the object is the content here in my view


----------



## BlueDaze

*Look To The East*



bean said:


> *I now have the trigger*
> The Fed meets on Wednesday on interest rates.
> Every market is in place for their decision.



bean,

I am more inclined to the view that the trigger will be from China or the Yen.

http://www.biiwii.com/prem/biiwiiletter.htm

But, as you said, we will know very soon...


----------



## BlueDaze

*Cycles*



explod said:


> What a load of crap.



Hi, fully agree with your points on gold as honest money and store of true-value. The fundamentals are in for a long-term secular bull in gold. But within secular trends there are also cyclical ups and downs. The key question is where are we moving in the cycles...


----------



## Kimosabi

I was trying to work out when to post this video, but now I think think is the appropriate time.

DOW vs Gold

...or...

Investment Price vs Investment Value

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=9084947195585759605

Must be about time to visit the Perth Mint...


----------



## BlueDaze

*Look To The East*



BlueDaze said:


> I am more inclined to the view that the trigger will be from China or the Yen.



*Nasdaq in the Late 1990's
and Shanghai Composite Today: Eerie Similarity*

http://china.seekingalpha.com/article/34607


----------



## BlueDaze

*Dow's Dangerous Winning Streak*

*Dow's Dangerous Winning Streak*

_The market's recent performance mirrors the strong runs that led up to the crashes of the Nikkei in 1989 and the Dow in 1929. Coincidence? Or warning?_

By Bill Fleckenstein

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...Chronicles/TheDowsDangerousWinningStreak.aspx

Folks can be forgiven for rolling their eyes at general statements that begin: "The historical data suggest that..." But apply this to potential stock-market gains and losses, and people's attention usually perks up. 

Recently, I decided to revisit a chart of Japan's Nikkei index from 1989. What prompted me were comments by GMO Chairman Jeremy Grantham that, for America's current stock bubble to burst, it may need to go parabolic, a la Tokyo 1989. When I read that, I thought: Wait, the Nikkei did not go parabolic at the end in 1989. I was short that market in 1989 and held long-dated put warrants, so I followed it quite closely. In the final five months before its crash, the Nikkei was almost orderly, rallying about 20%. By contrast, the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) nearly doubled in the last five months before the 2000 crash.

*Mr Dow's Hitting Streak & History *

In any case, after a little checking, I did find an amazing similarity between the last month or so of the rise in Japan that ended on Dec. 29, 1989, and the current advance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) (through April 27): Specifically, the last 32 out of 38 trading days in Tokyo were on the upside, with an initial run with a higher close on 19 out of 21 days, followed by seven out of 11, followed by six for six before about a 40% drop in the course of nine months took place. Recently, from the lows of March 5, the Dow closed higher in four out of six sessions, followed by seven out of 11, followed by 20 out of 22 - for a grand total of 31 out of 39 days. The last time the Dow had a run of 19 out of 21 days was in July 1929 - not exactly a great time to buy stocks.

Now, I am not a big believer in analogs, but if the mind-set in Tokyo back in those days was similar to the mind-set that we're witnessing here today, which, by my reckoning, it is, I guess it's not impossible for that similarity to have some predictive power.

*Getting Liquid To Fight Leverage*

Meanwhile, despite what history tells us about the ultimate outcome of market euphoria, the bulls are having no part of it, as they enjoy the current incredible rip to the upside. Against that backdrop, I cannot shake this nagging feeling that the most important idea for folks to consider *before the coming dislocation hits, whenever it hits, is that it will be necessary to have some liquidity*, even if that liquidity is held in a crummy currency like the dollar. I am more convinced than ever that the amount of leverage being held at the institutional, hedge-fund, individual and corporate levels is, while not directly ascertainable, extremely high. In fact, I think the overall financial risks are far higher than I ever imagined they could be.

Consequently, I *no longer believe it's possible to determine in advance just what asset classes might be safe in a financial dislocation*, as so many of them have become so intertwined, while at the same time we can't know how leveraged any of the underlying positions may be. Thus, when liquidation occurs one of these days, absurd developments may unfold that you might like to take advantage of. But one must have some flexibility - liquidity - to do that.

So, as I did by recently in selling my Newmont Mining position, I intend to find *ways to increase my own liquidity*, while still trying to protect myself against the fact that the dollar is sure to decline in value. I encourage others to give this subject some careful consideration.


----------



## bean

Well as I have been saying over the last few weeks
US Gold indexes and S&P 500 and in general US markets have been moving in tandem.

TODAYS CLOSING (NO SURPRISES HERE)

*IN THE GREEN CORNER*

GOLD - US GOLD INDEXES - DOW - S & P 500

*IN THE RED CORNER*

US $


*LETS CALL FOR A REPEAT TONIGHT IN CASE YOU MISS IT*


----------



## bean

*I DID SAY TOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
I THINK I AM WRONG.*

I THINK IT WILL BE TONIGHT

I NEED US MARKETS UP AND GOLD however

THE NASDAQ IS WEAK
IT CAN BE UP TO NIGHT DOWN TOMORROW NIGHT AND I HAVE IT NEGATIVE.
WHEREAS TWO DAYS UP THEN DOWN ONLY MAKES IT NEUTRAL.

ON THIS MOVE IN CASH GOLD ON COMEX FROM ABOUT US$ 640 
 IT REACHED A OF US$ 694  on 23RD APRIL
LAST NIGHT CLOSED AT US$ 688.70

IF I AM  RIGHT IT WILL NOT TAKE THAT CLOSING PRICE OUT
SO I AM ONLY LEFT WITH A SMALL MARGIN TO CALL
BEFORE A DOUBLE TOP???

NOW IF I AM WRONG GOLD WILL TAKE THAT OUT
AND THE US$ FALLS  AS ITS NEAR ITS LOWS

BUT  I BELIEVE IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE AND THE US$ IS THE ONLY THING 
THAT RISES.

SO TONIGHT IF US MARKETS UP
I GET AN OVERBOUGHT (however not extreme but still a high reading.  The 
Nasdaq if it struggles may show that it is about to cave in show you 
that it is indeed the markets correction and gold stocks and gold will 
correct as well as investers move to cash ofn a spirraling market)

GOLD UP will make a double top or  its just got massive resistance at 
this level


----------



## bean

NOW DON'T YOU HATE IT

I NOW HAVE TO WONDER IF THE MARKET WILL BE UP TONIGHT???
GOLD UP???

THE ONLY THING THAN WAS SHOWN INITIALLY WAS GOLD AND MARKETS DOWN
THE *US$* WAS UP

BUT ALSO HAD BOTH GOLD AND MARKETS DOWN (SAME DIRECTION)
BOTH MOVED UP FROM LOWS (SAME DIRECTION)

SO THEY ARE STILL MOVING TOGETHER!!!!


----------



## Kauri

Visually the last leg doesn't seem to have travelled far enough for a W*c *of W4 yet, I guess tonight and the FOMC will decide it. Incidentally, for this year to date gold has been up when the $US has been down for approx. 80% of the time.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> *I DID SAY TOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
> I THINK I AM WRONG.*
> 
> I THINK IT WILL BE TONIGHT



Bean, if you keep making predictions that it will be 'tonight', you will get it right one day. LOL  

If not tonight, maybe Thursday? :


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Bean, stop SHOUTING please, we get the message .

Some interesting long term (weekly) triangles forming for the 3 indexs of concern - 

Gold - ascending triangle - long term bullish
XAU - ascending triangle - long term bullish
$US - short term falling wedge - short term bullish

The $US looks to be the spoiler here as it looks like going for a dead cat bounce - gold might weaken one more time, get rid of the weak hands. Getting closer to judgment day - which triangle will break out?


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Bean, if you keep making predictions that it will be 'tonight', you will get it right one day. LOL
> 
> If not tonight, maybe Thursday? :




*TRUE*

*HOWEVER i DID SAY BOTH GOLD AND DOW HAD TO FINISH UP..*

I made the statement yesterday at lunchtime about the possibility of a 
top last night.
(Asian markets down, Gold down, and US futures down 0.30% and looking 
like Europe going to open down)
Well I nearly got my closing TOP missed by 5 points!!!!
As the DOW
Previous close 13313 intra day low 13238 finished at 13309.

And as I said both the DOW and GOLD had to FINISH UP.

And nobody would have thought looking at the world markets yesterday every thing red
US markets red .  why would I call a top and I nearly got a top

It would have been so much easier to have called that the top then 
rather than one tonight!!!!

TONIGHT??
US MARKETS AND GOLD AND GOLD INDEXES ARE MOVING TOGETHER???

I think I have shown that over about the past month.
Does anyone disagree????

Last night I also think it showed what would happen if Gold – US 
Markets – and world markets went down the US$ would go up!!!!

Gold I showed yesterday I do not have much leeway.
It is at a point where it can turn BULLISH or BEARISH

US$ is near the point where it can collapse

AND we have the DOW making a FINAL TOP?
Tonight both up and the top is tonight?????

Nasdaq doesn’t really want to go much higher though it can if the DOW 
really takes off.
Gold if the DOW takes off will blow past US$ 700
And US$????

WHY will it top tonight and then drop tomorrow and not keep rising????
Why then top not Monday say???
If it was a top – Gold and the DOW have both the failed together??
Which is what I am looking for??
SO if that is the case tonight will be down??

A failure by Gold I would expect it to drop a lot in a day at such an 
important decision time..
Therefore I think one more day up and then a failure??

Not a whimper like last night..

I am looking for the top in GOLD to also signal the top in the DOW
AND VISE VERSA


We have everything at decision time something will give????
*FED*


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> Mr Bean, stop SHOUTING please, we get the message .
> 
> Some interesting long term (weekly) triangles forming for the 3 indexs of concern -
> 
> Gold - ascending triangle - long term bullish
> XAU - ascending triangle - long term bullish
> $US - short term falling wedge - short term bullish
> 
> The $US looks to be the spoiler here as it looks like going for a dead cat bounce - gold might weaken one more time, get rid of the weak hands. Getting closer to judgment day - which triangle will break out?



Gold and XAU look to break up from those charts to me. $US just looks doomed.


----------



## bean

Uncle Festivus said:


> Mr Bean, stop SHOUTING please, we get the message .
> 
> Some interesting long term (weekly) triangles forming for the 3 indexs of concern -
> 
> Gold - ascending triangle - long term bullish
> XAU - ascending triangle - long term bullish
> $US - short term falling wedge - short term bullish
> 
> The $US looks to be the spoiler here as it looks like going for a dead cat bounce - gold might weaken one more time, get rid of the weak hands. Getting closer to judgment day - which triangle will break out?





AGREE BUT I AM SEEING THE DOW MOVING WITH GOLD.
AND I SEE THE DOW MAKING A TOP
AND BOTH WILL BE DROPPING TOGETHER
BUT THE DOW WON'T STOP


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Contrarians are beginning to see significant upside potential in the gold market.*
 		 That's because the majority of gold-timing newsletters have remained out of the gold market or outright short, despite strength in the gold market that has brought the yellow metal to within shouting distance of a 12-month high. 
 	 		 Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday night, the HGNSI stood at just 14.3%. 
 	 		 As recently as April 25, just nine trading sessions ago, the HGNSI stood at 57.1%. On that day, an ounce of gold traded for $684 - about $3 per ounce lower than where it is trading today. 


 	 		 This all adds up to an extraordinary divergence over the past two weeks. Normally, of course, gold timers tend to become more and less bullish as bullion rises and falls. But this most definitely has not been the case since April 25: Even though gold bullion is now higher than then, the average recommended gold exposure among gold timing newsletters is some 43 percentage points lower. 
 	 		 This is quite bullish from a contrarian point of view, since it suggests a significant amount of skepticism among gold market timers. Bull markets like to climb a wall of worry, and what we're seeing among the gold market timers is a very steep wall indeed.


----------



## BlueDaze

*Richard Russell: Dow Theory Buy Signal*

*Richard Russell: Dow Theory Buy Signal*

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/richard-russell-dow-theory-buy-signal-925.html

Were you watching April 20th 2007? if not, did you catch it on April 25th 2007? I’m talking about the Dow Theory buy signals that occurred on both those days. *Richard Russell *didn’t miss them. He’s dedicated his life to the study of the markets through the prism of the Dow Theory and for the past 50 years written a newsletter called the Dow Theory Letters.

Recently he wrote:

“We saw something that is extremely rare. In fact, I can’t remember ever having seen this before. What I’m referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages Industrials, Transports and Utilities — closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder… My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an *unprecedented world boom lies ahead*.”

This is an astonishing about face since Russell has been bearish, almost non-stop, for the whole duration of this bull market! I say almost non-stop because he has taken a few short “trading” buys here and there. But for him to finally acknowledge that this is indeed a bull market is quite remarkable. For me, it crystalizes that whatever logic you bring to bear to your analysis of the markets, ultimately, you can not argue with the most powerful element: price action.

But what I’m curious about is how Russell has resolved the primary reason why he was so bearish: *valuation*. As he says on his site:

"All other Dow Theory considerations are secondary to the value thesis. Therefore, price action, support lines, resistance, confirmations, divergence — all are of much less importance than value considerations, although critics of the Theory seem totally unaware of that fact."

I suspect that he still doesn’t feel that the market is “cheap” but has issued this buy signal because of the undeniable price action. We should remember that the *Dow Theory is not perfect*. It has given wrong signals before (which theory or method hasnt’?) but you can’t deny that it is yet another vote of confidence towards this market.

Finally, I wonder what this means for the gold market.

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/gold-bulls-will-be-disappointed-again-876.html

While Russell has been bearish on the market, he has been staunchly bullish on gold. I wonder if this means that he has also changed his mind about that.

Things may get interesting with the Fed meeting tomorrow. Will we have another spike up? or will it be the end of the party?


----------



## Kimosabi

*Re: Richard Russell: Dow Theory Buy Signal*



BlueDaze said:


> *Richard Russell: Dow Theory Buy Signal*
> 
> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/richard-russell-dow-theory-buy-signal-925.html
> 
> Were you watching April 20th 2007? if not, did you catch it on April 25th 2007? I’m talking about the Dow Theory buy signals that occurred on both those days. *Richard Russell *didn’t miss them. He’s dedicated his life to the study of the markets through the prism of the Dow Theory and for the past 50 years written a newsletter called the Dow Theory Letters.
> 
> Recently he wrote:
> 
> “We saw something that is extremely rare. In fact, I can’t remember ever having seen this before. What I’m referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages Industrials, Transports and Utilities ”” closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder… My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an *unprecedented world boom lies ahead*.”
> 
> This is an astonishing about face since Russell has been bearish, almost non-stop, for the whole duration of this bull market! I say almost non-stop because he has taken a few short “trading” buys here and there. But for him to finally acknowledge that this is indeed a bull market is quite remarkable. For me, it crystalizes that whatever logic you bring to bear to your analysis of the markets, ultimately, you can not argue with the most powerful element: price action.
> 
> But what I’m curious about is how Russell has resolved the primary reason why he was so bearish: *valuation*. As he says on his site:
> 
> "All other Dow Theory considerations are secondary to the value thesis. Therefore, price action, support lines, resistance, confirmations, divergence ”” all are of much less importance than value considerations, although critics of the Theory seem totally unaware of that fact."
> 
> I suspect that he still doesn’t feel that the market is “cheap” but has issued this buy signal because of the undeniable price action. We should remember that the *Dow Theory is not perfect*. It has given wrong signals before (which theory or method hasnt’?) but you can’t deny that it is yet another vote of confidence towards this market.
> 
> Finally, I wonder what this means for the gold market.
> 
> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/gold-bulls-will-be-disappointed-again-876.html
> 
> While Russell has been bearish on the market, he has been staunchly bullish on gold. I wonder if this means that he has also changed his mind about that.
> 
> Things may get interesting with the Fed meeting tomorrow. Will we have another spike up? or will it be the end of the party?




Ok, this is it, when the Bears concede defeat and get Bullish, this is time to sell up and head for the hills...


----------



## BlueDaze

*Game Over...*

Interesting comment by Henry To:

http://www.safehaven.com/archive-175.htm

"Bearish sentiment or bullish sentiment - if the Shanghai Composite goes "kaput," then it is over for gold, the Yen carry trade, and the dollar bears as well. Buying gold or gold mining stocks is just like buying Chinese stocks or shorting the Yen against the Euro at this point."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Game Over...*



BlueDaze said:


> Interesting comment by Henry To:
> 
> http://www.safehaven.com/archive-175.htm
> 
> "Bearish sentiment or bullish sentiment - if the Shanghai Composite goes "kaput," then it is over for gold, the Yen carry trade, and the dollar bears as well. Buying gold or gold mining stocks is just like buying Chinese stocks or shorting the Yen against the Euro at this point."




Couldn't find the story but....

In so far as some of the 'hot' money from the YCT has found it's way into gold there will probably be short term negative pressure on gold, but then when every central bank starts intervening in their currency to remain competitive then what are we left with as a store of value, if fiat currencies lose even more of their value?

Same for the commentator above who sold all his NEM shares. It's likely that there will be a short term buying opportunity but the fundamentals for gold are still there - after all, the 36 year capitalist experiment with fiat currency is looking shakier by the day.

I would think that in the event of a Chinese market crash that those with any money left would not trust official currency & would revert to their traditional trust in gold, so it could work in golds favour.

Still, it's not in anybodies interest for a crash to occur, but there is certainly some irrationality in the Chinese market now, and not even the commies can prevent that happening if something triggers a panic (except maybe shut the markets down). The force of a billion people buying shares pales when compared to a billion people selling shares.


----------



## BlueDaze

*I Hope He Is Wrong!*

*Liquidity Boom & Looming Crisis* 
By Henry C K Liu 

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IE09Dj01.html

"The global commodity bubble of the past three years has increased costs of living and production, adding more than 5% to global GDP growth. Although commodity inflation has been absorbed through low-interest consumer borrowings and lower-wage labor in the past, it is now finally showing up as higher-cost factor inputs. China has kept the global cost of manufacturing artificially low by not paying adequately for pollution control and worker wages and benefits, including inadequate retirement provisions. Domestic political pressure within China is forcing the government to normalize full production cost, which will boost global inflation.

Global inflation has picked up by 60 basis points in the past four quarters. If the trend continues, major central banks will have to focus on fighting inflation by cooling the liquidity boom. To avoid a drastic market collapse, anti-inflation measures will need to be implemented at a "measured pace", which means it may take as long as two years to take effect. The problem is that the system, which operates on ever rising asset values, cannot weather a two-year-long anemic growth. Thus even a soft landing will quickly turn into a crash. 

Bonds will be the first asset class to decline in market value in this anti-inflation cycle, which will eventually also affect other asset classes. As the flat or inverted yield curve spikes upward back to normal, making the spread between long-term and short-term rates wider, the commodity bubble will burst, followed by the stock market in a general deflation. Such a deflation cannot be cured by the Fed adopting inflation-targeting through printing more dollars because inflation-targeting is merely transmitting price deflation to a monetary devaluation.

The five-year global growth boom and four-year secular bull market may simple run out of steam, or become oversaturated by too many late-coming imitators entering a very specialized and exotic market of high-risk, high-leverage arbitrage. The liquidity boom has been delivering strong growth through asset inflation (property, credit spreads, commodities, and emerging-market stocks) without adding commensurate substantive expansion of the real economy. Unlike real physical assets, virtual financial mirages that arise out of thin air can evaporate again into thin air without warning. As inflation picks up, the liquidity boom and asset inflation will draw to a close, leaving a hollowed economy devoid of substance. 

Massive fund flows from the less experienced non-institutional, retail investors into hot-concept funds such as those focusing on opportunities in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) or in commodities, or in financial firms involved in currency arbitrage and carry trades, have caused a global financial mania in the past five quarters that has defied gravity. It will all melt away in a catastrophic unwinding. 

Inflationary pressure in the US and other OECD economies makes a cyclical bear market inevitable and an orderly unwinding unlikely. Central banks cannot ease because of a liquidity trap that prevents banks from being able to find creditworthy borrowers at any interest rate. Banks could be pushing on a credit string and global liquidity could decline, causing asset-risk valuations to contract suddenly and sharply. A liquidity trap can also occur when the economy is stagnant and the nominal interest rate is close or equal to zero, and the central bank is unable to stimulate the economy with traditional monetary tools because people do not expect positive returns on investments, so they hoard cash to preserve capital. Capital then becomes idle assets. 

As the decade-long US consumption collapses from exhaustion, a secular bear market arises in which the bullish rebounds are smaller and do not wipe out the losses of the previous bear market. Because Asia's growth has been driven by low-wage exports, it will not be ready to fill in as the global growth engine in time to prevent a global crash. China is just beginning to change its development model to boost worker income and household consumption and may take as long as a decade to see the full effects of the new policy. China's only option is to insulate itself from a global meltdown by resisting US pressure to speed up the opening of its financial markets. China's purchasing power is too weak to save the global economy from a deflationary depression. 

A global financial crisis is inevitable. So much investment has been sunk into increasing commodity production that a commodity-market bust, while having the effect of a sudden tax cut for the consuming economies, will cause bankruptcies that will wipe out massive amounts of global capital. A financial crisis could trigger a global economic hard landing. Global financial markets look suspiciously like a pyramid game in this overextended secular bull market. The proliferation of complex derivative products catering to short-term trading strategies that aim to get the biggest bang for the buck creates massive uncertainty surrounding leverage in the global financial system. A commodity burst could cause correlation trades to unwind in other markets, which could snowball quickly into a massive financial crisis."


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> AGREE BUT I AM SEEING THE DOW MOVING WITH GOLD.
> AND I SEE THE DOW MAKING A TOP
> AND BOTH WILL BE DROPPING TOGETHER
> BUT THE DOW WON'T STOP



DOW up, gold down - because of oil, not the DOW.

Or is this a one off?


----------



## bean

DOW NEW CLOSING HIGH  -  GOLD DOWN

I HAVE BEEN SHOWING OVER THE LAST MONTH THAT THE US GOLD INDEXES AND 
S&P 
500 (US MARKETS IN GENERAL) HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING EACH OTHER.

I HAVE ALSO BEEN SAYING THE I AM IN THE GOLD CAMP THAT EXPECTS A 
CORRECTION

I EXPECT THE CORRECTION TO INCLUDE THE US MARKETS

LAST NIGHT THE US GOLD INDEXES FINISHED UP!!!

SO THE TOP IN THE DOW IS THE CLOSING TOP???


IF GOLD IS INDEED FALLING THE THE GOLD INDEXES SHOULD FALL AND
WILL THE US MARKETS FALL / OR RISE?

SO IF GOLD INDEXES GO ONE DIRECTION AND THE US MARKETS GO THE OTHER


I WILL SAY NO MORE !!!


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> DOW NEW CLOSING HIGH  -  GOLD DOWN
> 
> I HAVE BEEN SHOWING OVER THE LAST MONTH THAT THE US GOLD INDEXES AND
> S&P
> 500 (US MARKETS IN GENERAL) HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING EACH OTHER.
> 
> I HAVE ALSO BEEN SAYING THE I AM IN THE GOLD CAMP THAT EXPECTS A
> CORRECTION
> 
> I EXPECT THE CORRECTION TO INCLUDE THE US MARKETS
> 
> LAST NIGHT THE US GOLD INDEXES FINISHED UP!!!
> 
> SO THE TOP IN THE DOW IS THE CLOSING TOP???
> 
> IF GOLD IS INDEED FALLING THE THE GOLD INDEXES SHOULD FALL AND
> WILL THE US MARKETS FALL / OR RISE?
> 
> SO IF GOLD INDEXES GO ONE DIRECTION AND THE US MARKETS GO THE OTHER
> 
> I WILL SAY NO MORE !!!



Bean, if the US market tanks there's a high probability that the Aus market will as well, which will take down gold stocks with it. This is not rocket science. I am really not sure why you are going on about this in capital letters. Can you please just stick to normal fonts so we can have a normal conversation without the yelling. Cheers.


----------



## Kauri

Have drawn in a tentative W4 completion, although it may drop further yet, can't see any acceptable R/R trades developing at the moment so will watch and wait for the time being.
  Incidentally if you overlay the $US over the gold chart you will see that they travel in opposite directions for approx.80% of this year so far, but as an indicator to take a trade it is not of much use as they usually turn at the same time, much the same as lining POG up with the DOW etc???? Have also noticed that posting in CAPITALS doesn't seem to have much effect on the market either???


----------



## Kimosabi

Kimosabi said:


> I was trying to work out when to post this video, but now I think think is the appropriate time.
> 
> DOW vs Gold
> 
> ...or...
> 
> Investment Price vs Investment Value
> 
> http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=9084947195585759605
> 
> Must be about time to visit the Perth Mint...




*Could someone do an XAO vs Gold Chart like what is demonstrated in the above movie?*

I'd be interested to see how the XAO compares to gold.

It would be interesting to do an Investment vs Investment analysis of the XAO during our recent Bull Run.


----------



## Kauri

Have now got an *a*=*c* Gartley type pattern forming on the trend channel support, also where a typical W2 usually completes at 50% retracement.. wonder if it will hold??


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> DOW up, gold down - because of oil, not the DOW.
> 
> Or is this a one off?




Only whispering but today I only see 
*Green* in the *US$*  and oil
*Red* appears to *Everything*

And I have been saying for thr last month that the US Gold indexes and US markets are moving in the same direction.

I also said that Gold was going to correct and the indexes would follow Gold
So if the Gold Indexes were going down as well 
Guess who is leading the Markets
GOLD


----------



## CanOz

Kauri said:


> Have now got an *a*=*c* Gartley type pattern forming on the trend channel support, also where a typical W2 usually completes at 50% retracement.. wonder if it will hold??




I think it will, 665 was the critical level for me. I've got a GOLD mini open long. This could be the turning point where GOLD decouples with the DOW, which it has been tracking a bit lately (as Bean will tell you for sure LOL!)...but i think its oversold now, and its holding the trendline so far....Today and tonite should tell.

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> I think it will, 665 was the critical level for me. I've got a GOLD mini open long. This could be the turning point where GOLD decouples with the DOW, which it has been tracking a bit lately (as Bean will tell you for sure LOL!)...but i think its oversold now, and its holding the trendline so far....Today and tonite should tell.
> 
> Cheers,




  Your long looks good, the setup looks like a Harmonic pattern, or Gartley222 bullish according to Pesavanto... or a simple ABC correction for me... 
  Last one I traded on the daily gold was in Dec/Jan.. it panned out well. May look down to shorter timeframe charts to see if there is a good entry there.
       Cheers


----------



## bean

I am in the camp that believes Gold and Gold stocks are going down
I have shown that the US markets and US Gold indexes have been moving together.
If a bounce occurs in Gold tonight - Then US market up
If that was the case then US markets may pick up steam and go higher.

I however believe that the closing Top for me was Wednesday night.

And hopefully another one or two down days might convince everyone
That this is indeed a severe correction in US markets
That will spread
On the way down watch the market in China

At some stage yes Gold will break free
Hopefully I get $800+ by end of year


----------



## bean

bean said:


> IIf a bounce occurs in Gold tonight - Then US market up
> If that was the case then US markets may pick up steam and go higher.



A bore US gold stocks up US markrts up.
Yawn follow each other but the calling is down


----------



## Kauri

Gold (daily spot) is at an interesting stage again..


----------



## bean

I am at the stage where I need more data 
Can Gold go higher on Monday and Tuesday the answer is yes
It bounced Friday night because it had a big drop on Thursday
However I am expecting it will be a lower price that what it fell to last week by this Friday.

If Gold is up on those two days the US markets DOW will be making a new high.



		Code:
	

But if last Wednesday was indeed the high in the DOW

Then Monday will be down and so will Tuesday and possibly Wednesday?


----------



## bean

> If Gold is up on those two days the US markets DOW will be making a new high.
> 
> 
> 
> Code:
> 
> 
> But if last Wednesday was indeed the high in the DOW
> 
> Then Monday will be down and so will Tuesday and possibly Wednesday?




Like a broken record
Gold indexes & Gold and the US Markets are moving with each other

Last night Gold down all US Markets down except the DOW which just finished in the Green.

However the HIGH I SAID LAST WEDNESDAY IS STILL THE HIGH IN THE DOW.

Gold is going down and the US markets are going down.

On the way down we will watch CHINA because any acceleration in there market could cause an 87 stye Crash


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> Like a broken record
> Gold indexes & Gold and the US Markets are moving with each other
> 
> Last night Gold down all US Markets down except the DOW which just finished in the Green.
> 
> However the HIGH I SAID LAST WEDNESDAY IS STILL THE HIGH IN THE DOW.
> 
> Gold is going down and the US markets are going down.
> 
> On the way down we will watch CHINA because any acceleration in there market could cause an 87 stye Crash




What's with you guys and thinking china will end the world for us!

The Bank of China will never let their market lose more then a certain amount they hate unstable volatile situations in any thing they do.

When it hits a point they will poor in the cash until it stabilises.

Our markets will fall when they reach the point were no one is willing to pay that price and they will bounce straight back as long as people see the oppertuity is great to buy.

China is not going to be the reason for a bear market I am sorry to say.

We only had a sell off last time cuz the market was looking for any reason to sell and the china sell off was the right excuse!

my


----------



## bean

If I am wrong and the DOW goes to new highs for rest of the week expect this
The last chart posted by KAURI

IF I AM RIGHT EXPECT THIS
Look at his latest Gold and Silver Updates
http://www.clivemaund.com


----------



## bean

Went to bed thinking I have blown it.
I could not believe this morning
We have red and green today nothing matches.
However the US Market action was that of a down day not an up day.

The only thing is people will see the DOW made a higher close

I got everything I needed
The Nasdaq in my program (has gone badly negative) if it falls tomorrow is set up for a 2% down day.

However will wait and watch


----------



## bean

bean said:


> If I am wrong and the DOW goes to new highs for rest of the week expect this
> The last chart posted by KAURI
> 
> IF I AM RIGHT EXPECT THIS
> Look at his latest Gold and Silver Updates
> http://www.clivemaund.com




As you can see it is still a battle.  DOW up GOLD up
The trouble at the moment is the DOW.
Most other US markets want to correct.  They may well drag the DOW down.
GOLD will follow the DOW.

A down day tonight may be all that is required to start the acceleration into this correction.  A down day tonight and Nasdaq could easily drop over 2% .
And if that happens could be down for rest of the week

SO the action tonight and tomorrow night should finally show if the price of Gold is going to US$ 7xx  or US$ 5xx within the coming weeks/days


----------



## bean

Just before US markets open GOLD down US$ seven.
 Wall street is meant to open up 
But will both be same colour in the morning?


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Just before US markets open GOLD down US$ seven.
> Wall street is meant to open up
> But will both be same colour in the morning?




No the complete opposite??
US Gold Indexes dropped approx 1% but not as much as you would have expected on such a large drop in the price of Gold.

Even Gold Indexes are being held up by the Dow.
Also Nasdaq last wednesday 9th may 2576  today 2547
It is still weak thought another two up days will have strenght
But its technicals are weak and it is being held up by the Dow

Gold after a large drop may well bounce tonight??
Gold is it now showing which way the markets should go?
Gold breaking free?
Dow stocks most of there earnings were due to weak US$
Its now rising..


----------



## METALMAN

We will know soon enough as the market will tell us exactly what it wants to do and when it wants to do that.

Relax


----------



## Uncle Festivus

bean said:


> Dow stocks most of there earnings were due to weak US$
> Its now rising..




It's always been a currency play, more correlated to the $USD than the DOW. $USD having a run on percieved strength in the economy/sharemarket?. Gold is off the investment radar while ever the share market is booming like this.

Also, gold holding up remarkably well considering the headwinds it faces - 



> Spain's foreign reserves have plummeted to wafer-thin levels, leaving the country exposed to a possible banking crisis if the property market swings from boom to bust - despite membership of the eurozone.
> The Banco de Espana's holdings of foreign currencies and gold have fallen to €13.2bn (£9.02bn), equivalent to 12 days of imports.
> Over the past two months the Banco de España *has sold off 80 tonnes of gold*, flooding the world market with enough bullion to dampen the usual spring rally. The bank has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, British gilts, and other investments at a similar rate.
> Total reserves have now fallen by two thirds from €41.5bn in early 2002. Greece and Portugal have seen a similar drop.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...ILS&grid=&xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml


----------



## bean

DECISION TIME IS HERE

US MARKETS I called a high on 9/5
DOW is still making new highs???

Lets look at some US markets closing prices and dates
Nasdaq high 9th may 2576  today 2457
S&P 500  high 9th may 1513     today 1501
Dow Transports high 8th May 5218   today 5126
Dow Utilities high 7th May 531    today 530
NYSE composite high 9th May 9828    today 9825
NYSE international 100 high 4th & 9th May 7050  today 7003
S&P small cap 600 index high 9th May 433   today 427 

I could continue with the list but I think the picture is clear

Gold is falling/correcting 
If US Gold Indexes which are following US markets are at a decision point.  The DOW if it makes a new high tonight may start to turn some of the other US indexes into making new highs therefore giving strength to the overall market.
Gold and Gold indexes if follow the direction of the general market could break to the upside.

If I am correct and the 9 th May was the high in US Markets (except the Dow - 30 stocks)  and Gold is correcting 
Expect tonight down in everything!!!!!
Or double tops made.

But if the US markets start making new highs 
tonight / tomorrow night
Could I turn bullish??


----------



## BlueDaze

*HUI Update by Stacy Himes*

http://imagesocket.com/view/HUI_BB50_Support30069a.png

"The technical landscape for the HUI index is starting to deteriorate. As most traders are aware a neat trading range has been in effect for months now. Trading ranges eventually come to an end and this one will be no different. The 20, 50, and 100 week bollinger bands do a pretty good job of defining the swing parameters of this bull market on the key time frames. Since we are now getting some downside trendline penetration I would submit the trading range is shifting to a down bias. *Support is strong at lower BB50*. Therefore we will assume a breach of that support area is a very significant event. Until then the *swing lows for trading purposes will be the 300 to 310 area*.

If you are paying attention you will also note that the multi year log uptrend line has been pierced as of today. This comes on a already oversold reading. Therefore you would *expect a decent tradeable bounce *on further weakness.

Finally, I think it's noteworthy to examine the BB100 bands and a fractal comparison between the current pattern and that of 2004. I have pointed out in the chart and in previous posts that the *wide bands do not support a bull market advance*. Now in this chart I am suggesting that that little fractal in 2004 may be similar to the whole trading range we have had for the last year. This would suggest a correction of one degree larger this time around and is consistent with the wide BB100 bands. Clearly there will be steps and trade setups both long and short in-between, but thats the way I see the big picture at this time.

In terms of wave count, I see the *October 2006 lows as a W in a compound zig zag or potential flat pattern*. Unfortunately the shallow uptrending triangular pattern that followed does not satisfy me for a bullish ending pattern. The problem with the way the pattern progressed is that is was on a slow rise, which essentially got the index precariously overbought. A better setup would have been initial action to the downside with frequent trips to oversold during the pattern. So now my view is that the *pattern looks more like distribution in a manner similar to the 2004 episode*. 

In the very short term, I expect a tradeable rally to start at any time in the next few days. We'll just have to see how far it gets. If you are following the XAU/Gold ratio then you see we continue to bang against that .20 area. I continue to believe accumulation should not be a automatic habit at this level. I would *start accumulation when gold is just under the 65 week moving average and the ratio is under .19*."


----------



## CanOz

GOLD is dropping like a Russian satelite!

down 4.5 USD/oz atm....

Cheers,


----------



## bean

update later 
But well FALLING into place


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Fellow Gold Bugs,

Following is a out look on a weekly time frame on spot gold.

Very interesting situation playing out now on the chart. great trend from July 06 with lots of touches confirming this present strong trend.

*Bull Side.*
A major ascending triangle has formed has been forming for some time now adding to its strength, short term price is weak and returning to its trend line.

This is a great bullish set up in my opinion. I am looking for it to find support on its trend line and bounce off, once confirmed I will look to open longs.

If it is able to break 690 and make that resistance support I will look to add to my positions.

*Bear Side*
If the trend line is broken and becomes resistance, I will look to open shorts as this is it's major trend. next fibb support just above $600

Divergence is present on MACD but that has played true with its current weakness. Personally I put indicator messages and signs second to price. But that's me.

I read there are currently over supply fears that are slightly out weighing demand that could be what's stopping it from closing and holding above 690.

In a nut shell I am bullish on this picture.

Please see pdf chart.


----------



## bean

Trade_It said:


> Fellow Gold Bugs,
> 
> Following is a out look on a weekly time frame on spot gold.
> 
> Very interesting situation playing out now on the chart. great trend from July 06 with lots of touches confirming this present strong trend.
> 
> *Bull Side.*
> A major ascending triangle has formed has been forming for some time now adding to its strength, short term price is weak and returning to its trend line.
> 
> This is a great bullish set up in my opinion. I am looking for it to find support on its trend line and bounce off, once confirmed I will look to open longs.
> 
> If it is able to break 690 and make that resistance support I will look to add to my positions.
> 
> *Bear Side*
> If the trend line is broken and becomes resistance, I will look to open shorts as this is it's major trend. next fibb support just above $600
> 
> Divergence is present on MACD but that has played true with its current weakness. Personally I put indicator messages and signs second to price. But that's me.
> 
> I read there are currently over supply fears that are slightly out weighing demand that could be what's stopping it from closing and holding above 690.
> 
> In a nut shell I am bullish on this picture.
> 
> Please see pdf chart.




At the moment I go with your Bearish side
But may revert to your Bullish side if I am wrong
The action in the next 3-4 days should show if the trend I have been saying is true, should start to pick up speed
As finally the US markets may join the party???
Time will tell


----------



## x2rider

hi trade it

A good aticle to read if you like your E-wave thing and quite bullish for gold at this time

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/may172007.html
 Cheers Martin


----------



## wavepicker

In May of 2006  impulses in Gold/Silver were clearly identified to have terminated. As such bearish positions were taken. The outlook back then was for Gold/Silver to trend down OR at the very least nett sideways until the 8.5 Year cycle had bottomed. This was expected to bottom in 2008/9.  In early June 2006, a chart was posted with the expected path/pattern Gold will take. So far that has tracked reasonably well. although the last major leg up was slightly higher than expected.  With the US Dollar looking it may have found  a low and as such a multi year rally should be starting, then Gold will probably do it tough for a while IMO.  The same can be said for some of the metals in  general

Just my opinion and 2c worth 


Cheers


----------



## CanOz

wavepicker said:


> In May of 2006  impulses in Gold/Silver were clearly identified to have terminated. As such bearish positions were taken. The outlook back then was for Gold/Silver to trend down OR at the very least nett sideways until the 8.5 Year cycle had bottomed. This was expected to bottom in 2008/9.  In early June 2006, a chart was posted with the expected path/pattern Gold will take. So far that has tracked reasonably well. although the last major leg up was slightly higher than expected.  With the US Dollar looking it may have found  a low and as such a multi year rally should be starting, then Gold will probably do it tough for a while IMO.  The same can be said for some of the metals in  general
> 
> Just my opinion and 2c worth
> 
> 
> Cheers




Good post WP! I wonder though if the USD has really found that bottom, or will it go back for a third test sooner than we think? I just can't see whats so attractive about it fundmentally. 

Did you see the post on the two wave fractals and thier similarity? i thought that was interesting.

Cheers,


----------



## wavepicker

CanOz said:


> Good post WP! I wonder though if the USD has really found that bottom, or will it go back for a third test sooner than we think? I just can't see whats so attractive about it fundmentally.
> 
> Did you see the post on the two wave fractals and thier similarity? i thought that was interesting.
> 
> Cheers,




Time will tell canaussiek, certainly against the majors the USD has been doing better ATM and Gold and Silver seem to be doing it tough for the last week now.  I know jack about fundemantals so can't comment as such, but certainly from a cyclical perspective it could well be a long here.

What post was that about the 2 wave fractals??



Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

x2rider said:


> hi trade it
> 
> A good aticle to read if you like your E-wave thing and quite bullish for gold at this time
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/may172007.html
> Cheers Martin




Thanks for the link. Very interesting stuff wave is such an amazing approach.

Also just read in Your Trading Edge that they are also bullish on gold.

Like I said in my analysis I will not place any longs till my analysis is confirmed so until it does bounce off it's trend line I am neutral!

Lets leave it to the market to decide!


----------



## BlueDaze

*Barnes Index*

Henry To:

Barnes Index jumped a whooping 4 points this week to 64.

As I said in our previous commentaries, we will be very bearish on the stock market when/if the Barnes Index jumps to over 70.

Note that at the last major top on May 10, 2006, the Barnes Index had a reading of 67.60

http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20060507.html


----------



## bean

The action in Gold and US Gold indexes is similar to some US Indexes which made there high on 9th May
Simply put They are at decision time.
They will break hard one way or the other Monday – Tuesday – Wednesday
They have been bouncing around some moveing averages and if DOW moves higher I think they will break out to upside.  However if the US markets start to crack expect the crack to widen within days and gold to tumble fast


I posted this elsewhere 
Now If I said the closing High I called on the 9th May in the US Markets is still in place. 
Everyone would start laughing.

Lets take a look after friday's close
Nasdaq Conposite 9th May 2572	 friday 2558
Nasdaq 100 	9th May 1906		 friday 1896
Nasdaq financial 100 7th May 3186 	friday 3178
S&P 400 Midcap 9th May 899		 friday 898
S&P Composite 1500 9th May 343 	friday 342
S&P 600 smallcap 9th May 433 		?friday 428
And a few others as well. However some gave way on Friday just.
US Gold index are only a couple of % below there May highs and a few % below ther April Highs.

What I am saying if the DOW continues its advance at the begining of this week it will drag the above indexes with it?
Which would give more strength to its advance.
I also said the Nasdaq above 2550 would be back in bubble territory. On 26th April 2554 as you can see with the high it made on 9th May 2572 and friday's close 2558 it appears as thought it does not want to go higher? but could it be dragged higher

Us Gold indexes could be drag higher as well and will break out and Gold US750 -775 if they do that the DOW will be moving higher (lots 14500+??)

So there is roughly 3 days advance and the Dow maybe able to do the all the above

Basically the Bears have three days to take the Market down.
The above mentioned US indexes can still turn bearish with one or two days in a row down.
The others that just broke above there previous highs on Friday need two down in a row
So the next three days decide the next few weeks or months

As I said I may turn bullish during the week.  But until then I am extremely Bearish.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> The action in Gold and US Gold indexes is similar to some US Indexes which made there high on 9th May
> Simply put They are at decision time.
> They will break hard one way or the other Monday – Tuesday – Wednesday
> They have been bouncing around some moveing averages and if DOW moves higher I think they will break out to upside.  However if the US markets start to crack expect the crack to widen within days and gold to tumble fast
> 
> 
> I posted this elsewhere
> Now If I said the closing High I called on the 9th May in the US Markets is still in place.
> Everyone would start laughing.
> 
> Lets take a look after friday's close
> Nasdaq Conposite 9th May 2572	 friday 2558
> Nasdaq 100 	9th May 1906		 friday 1896
> Nasdaq financial 100 7th May 3186 	friday 3178
> S&P 400 Midcap 9th May 899		 friday 898
> S&P Composite 1500 9th May 343 	friday 342
> S&P 600 smallcap 9th May 433 		?friday 428
> And a few others as well. However some gave way on Friday just.
> US Gold index are only a couple of % below there May highs and a few % below ther April Highs.
> 
> What I am saying if the DOW continues its advance at the begining of this week it will drag the above indexes with it?
> Which would give more strength to its advance.
> I also said the Nasdaq above 2550 would be back in bubble territory. On 26th April 2554 as you can see with the high it made on 9th May 2572 and friday's close 2558 it appears as thought it does not want to go higher? but could it be dragged higher
> 
> Us Gold indexes could be drag higher as well and will break out and Gold US750 -775 if they do that the DOW will be moving higher (lots 14500+??)
> 
> So there is roughly 3 days advance and the Dow maybe able to do the all the above
> 
> Basically the Bears have three days to take the Market down.
> The above mentioned US indexes can still turn bearish with one or two days in a row down.
> The others that just broke above there previous highs on Friday need two down in a row
> So the next three days decide the next few weeks or months
> 
> As I said I may turn bullish during the week.  But until then I am extremely Bearish.




bean your three days are up buddy you have been saying we have two to three days for a week now!

I do not understand your analysis and it does not make any sense!

Sorry to be harsh but three or two days do not make a market!


----------



## bean

Trade_It said:


> bean your three days are up buddy you have been saying we have two to three days for a week now!




I have been waiting on the US Gold Idexes to make there move.  
And wonder why they are taking so long to make it.
If they are going to go up with the rest of the markets or fall with the markets.
If they decide to rise then your last post the Bullish part comes into play for Gold.
However if they don't break out its is because the US Markets are going to correct and US Gold indexes will follow the Markets.

So if the US Gold Indexes break out I am Bullish

_copy of a post _
Sound like a broken record
However Bulls no need to worry If the US markets, US Gold Indexes and Gold are up tonight and tomorrow I will be nearly turning Bullish.
I am a Gold Bull, however Gold & US Gold Indexes are not joining the party at the moment, could change in the next day or two
The XAU & HUI are sitting just below most of there moving averages, and a few other thing I use. 
However why have they not broken out when every other Index is making new highs???
Could it be they know something???
Nasdaq new record closing high, my reading turned slightly positive however and couple of up days and well you will have the Nasdaq and other US markets gaining strength and US Gold Indexes breaking out.
I still only need one down day and Nasdaq is negative again and two down days in a row and the US Markets will be changing direction. And the Gold Indexs until they turn positive I am of the belief that the Markets going down. 
Gold stocks will fall if the US Markets correct 

My time frame window is now reduced to one possibly two days for the Markets to start correcting
Tonight and at latest Wednesday night


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Sound like a broken record



Yes, bean. There is no point in reading your posts any more I'm sorry. It's just the same hash over and over. I'm not sure why you are posting actually.


----------



## BlueDaze

*Marc Faber*

*Marc Faber "Final Stages Of A Bubble" / Bloomberg Video*

http://tinyurl.com/2ob5ow

Marc Faber cites Spanish property, EM stocks, *commodities*, art, collectibles, etc., all being in bubbles, but that the "bubble" in U.S. equities is not as big. States that China is also in a bubble, but since this is the consensus among most retail investors, he states that China can and should go higher than anyone thinks before it pops.

Also states that the whole world will suffer when this bubble pops. Says there is *nowhere to hide since pretty much all tradeable assets are now highly correlated with each other*. Not exactly sure on what will be the trigger but states that this time around, the lowering of interest rates and money-printing would not help, as this will only drive up consumer prices and crash bond prices.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Marc Faber*



BlueDaze said:


> *Marc Faber "Final Stages Of A Bubble" / Bloomberg Video*
> 
> http://tinyurl.com/2ob5ow
> 
> Marc Faber cites Spanish property, EM stocks, *commodities*, art, collectibles, etc., all being in bubbles, but that the "bubble" in U.S. equities is not as big. States that China is also in a bubble, but since this is the consensus among most retail investors, he states that China can and should go higher than anyone thinks before it pops.
> 
> Also states that the whole world will suffer when this bubble pops. Says there is *nowhere to hide since pretty much all tradeable assets are now highly correlated with each other*. Not exactly sure on what will be the trigger but states that this time around, the lowering of interest rates and money-printing would not help, as this will only drive up consumer prices and crash bond prices.




Can you explain to me what that has to do with what the gold price is doing?

will it cause it to fall rise?

thanks.

Gold,

more softness over night.

I still have support on its trend line at and just under 650 still see this bullish triangle in tact and stand on a bullish out look on the chart.

guys your thoughts?


----------



## bean

Why do I sound like a broken record and keep repeating myself

First posts were US Gold Indexes following US Markets (S&P)
I am in the Bearish Camp which sees a correction in Gold Indexes and Gold
The correction would be occurring the US Markets falling

Excluding todays prices lets look Dow 12076 on 13 March
We will start from 14th so we have 48 trading days
Dow up 37
Nyse up 33
Nasdaq up 32
S&P 500 up 31

XAU up 28

Not to far away with the number of days up.  So running pretty much with the US Markets
XAU closing high in April 148.11 on the 16th April 
Just about the time everyone was saying Gold ready to break above US $690

XAU closing May high 143.15 on the 7th May
I call the US Markets tops 9 May some have just passed then

I start calling correction or I get a buy on US Gold Indexes yesterday and day before
XAU 138.36 yesterday
Today 135.81

The XAU is making lower Highs????

It does not believe the US Market advance because it does not want to give me a buy signal
On saying that if US Markets advance it will take XAU with it and I will get a buy signal?? 
Do the US Gold Indexes know something????


----------



## SGB

bean said:


> Why do I sound like a broken record and keep repeating myself
> 
> bean,
> I have to admit after reading you for a couple of weeks i'm still trying to work out what side of the fence you're on.


----------



## Kauri

Although there are alternative counts suggesting that this move has further downside the following charts are how I am tending to view gold currently. Time (and price) will either set up a long trade or throw the whole set-up out the window.


----------



## bean

Kauri said:


> Although there are alternative counts suggesting that this move has further downside the following charts are how I am tending to view gold currently. Time (and price) will either set up a long trade or throw the whole set-up out the window.




Kauri hi,
Can you do alternate count to downside to show say gold dropping US 10-15 tonight or tomorrow night so I can see that picture


----------



## wavepicker

Hi kauri,

Your charts are generated by Dynamic Trader is that correct??  What version are you using and how do you rate rate Dynamic Trader in terms of Elliott Wave Analysis and all the other routines available on Dynamic trader?

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

bean said:


> Kauri hi,
> Can you do alternate count to downside to show say gold dropping US 10-15 tonight or tomorrow night so I can see that picture



 OK.. but only because it's you...


----------



## bean

Kauri said:


> OK.. but only because it's you...




Thanks, then would get quick wave 4 then wave 5 to bottom??
Thats the chart to look at if Gold and US Gold indexes drop tonight or towmorrow night and they would be dropping in a similar fashion to US Markets.

However if Gold and Us Gold indexes rise tonight and tomorrow night.
US Gold Idexes are within one to two % of there moving averages
And they would confirm Golds rise and vise wera
And US $750 plus
I will be most probably buying as your first charts would come into play.
And 15000 for the Dow??

So decision time is near??


----------



## Magdoran

SGB said:


> bean,
> I have to admit after reading you for a couple of weeks i'm still trying to work out what side of the fence you're on.




Which side is Bean on?  Blackadder’s of course!

Bean is our resident Tasmanian “Sir Humphrey Appleby”, hence the countenance in his verse!  He’s had over half a century to refine his “style”.


Here is a line out of the Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey_Appleby



> Sir Humphrey is the master of obfuscation and manipulation. He is committed to maintaining the status quo for the country in general and for the Civil Service in particular, and will stop at nothing to do so ”” whether that means baffling his opponents with technical jargon, strategically appointing allies to supposedly impartial boards, or setting up an interdepartmental committee to smother his Minister's proposals in red tape.





So be a good Baldrick and just say “Yes... Minister”!!!


----------



## SGB

Magdoran said:


> Which side is Bean on?  Blackadder’s of course!
> 
> Bean is our resident Tasmanian “Sir Humphrey Appleby”, hence the countenance in his verse!  He’s had over half a century to refine his “style”.
> 
> 
> Here is a line out of the Wikipedia:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey_Appleby
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So be a good Baldrick and just say “Yes... Minister”!!!




Hi Mag

Very Good, I'm with it now


----------



## SGB

Kauri said:


> OK.. but only because it's you...




I'm in a fit of laughter. lol


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> OK.. but only because it's you...





Classic chart Kauri    !


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Magdoran said:


> Which side is Bean on?  Blackadder’s of course!
> 
> Bean is our resident Tasmanian “Sir Humphrey Appleby”, hence the countenance in his verse!  He’s had over half a century to refine his “style”.
> 
> 
> Here is a line out of the Wikipedia:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey_Appleby
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So be a good Baldrick and just say “Yes... Minister”!!!





Mag,

took me two reads to get it but very cheeky!

good to see your here with a smile!


----------



## Kauri

A risky liitle trade on the 4 hourly.... I have found that I only need to get 31% winners (7 losers in every 10 trades   ) and because of the RR I come out in front.


----------



## bean

The index I mentioned in earlier posts his last up date 
Please read – may help you understand 
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

Herein lies the problem it bought last night, Using it on the HUI and XAU they brought as well the night before. 
Now my own Gold system did not it may if the Gold Indexes rise for a couple of more days 2-3 
Normally I would be seeing a slight change in my values at the moment (slight turn up) but I have not I have a divergence!!! 
The US Market Indexes have alingned themselves again for the possibility of a two day down tonight and tomorrow to show a change in direction. 
Believe it our not the Dow has closed three days in a row down. and other Indicies apart from advance on Monday have gone nowhere. 
So part of my system uses numbers and time series come into play, so does various technical analysis. 
Short medium and long term. 
And its not just the Nasdaq its NYSE and a few others and Dow itself…. 
I would not be concerned if I had a buy in Gold Indexes because chances of it happening would be less. 

I also know the price of Gold has not passed various pivot points as yet. 
So those using pivots are not buying gold. 

The wavers calling wave five of five in the markets well they are covered because hardest wave to pick and wave five can be extended. However if in fact US Gold Indexes are joining the advance then the markets may well rise for several more months or longer

Kauri why I wanted to see the alternate count down was the only reason his system would not buy was what you showed but over three days. And that may well come into place if the US Markets and Gold Indexes and Gold move down together. Because I do not have a buy signal on Gold and I have that set up mentioned in US Markets something like that may well come into place. 
If the bullish case is in for Gold a small retractment tonight then a push up? 
Or just a push up? 

At the moment I myself still do not have a buy signal in US Gold Indexes. 
I do not have a sell signal in the US Markets. 
So Gold’s direction???? 
Hopefully the next two days I will get an indication of a signal in one of them 

I invest mainly in Gold & Silver stocks, the ones I invest in are mainly lower in price from when I sold. 
I have been in a no risk situation.


----------



## bean

GOOD NIGHT TO ALL


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Kauri hi,
> Can you do alternate count to downside to show say gold dropping US 10-15 tonight or tomorrow night so I can see that picture




I know it was only $9.50 but can I have my chart please


----------



## BlueDaze

*Slow STO Signals A Gold Buy?*







A buy at the US$635 level seems like a good entry level.


----------



## Kimosabi

bean said:


> The index I mentioned in earlier posts his last up date
> Please read – may help you understand
> http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html
> 
> Herein lies the problem it bought last night, Using it on the HUI and XAU they brought as well the night before.
> Now my own Gold system did not it may if the Gold Indexes rise for a couple of more days 2-3
> Normally I would be seeing a slight change in my values at the moment (slight turn up) but I have not I have a divergence!!!
> The US Market Indexes have alingned themselves again for the possibility of a two day down tonight and tomorrow to show a change in direction.
> Believe it our not the Dow has closed three days in a row down. and other Indicies apart from advance on Monday have gone nowhere.
> So part of my system uses numbers and time series come into play, so does various technical analysis.
> Short medium and long term.
> And its not just the Nasdaq its NYSE and a few others and Dow itself….
> I would not be concerned if I had a buy in Gold Indexes because chances of it happening would be less.
> 
> I also know the price of Gold has not passed various pivot points as yet.
> So those using pivots are not buying gold.
> 
> The wavers calling wave five of five in the markets well they are covered because hardest wave to pick and wave five can be extended. However if in fact US Gold Indexes are joining the advance then the markets may well rise for several more months or longer
> 
> Kauri why I wanted to see the alternate count down was the only reason his system would not buy was what you showed but over three days. And that may well come into place if the US Markets and Gold Indexes and Gold move down together. Because I do not have a buy signal on Gold and I have that set up mentioned in US Markets something like that may well come into place.
> If the bullish case is in for Gold a small retractment tonight then a push up?
> Or just a push up?
> 
> At the moment I myself still do not have a buy signal in US Gold Indexes.
> I do not have a sell signal in the US Markets.
> So Gold’s direction????
> Hopefully the next two days I will get an indication of a signal in one of them
> 
> I invest mainly in Gold & Silver stocks, the ones I invest in are mainly lower in price from when I sold.
> I have been in a no risk situation.




One thing you've got take into consideration with Gold, is that the Bank of Spain has sold off "80 tonnes of Gold, flooding the world market".  Some other european banks have sold some Gold as well as some ETF's.  It looks like spain is skating on the edge of a currency/banking crisis.  And there you go, I thought booms just kept going, and going, and going, and going.....

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/banco-de-espana/2007/05/29/

Considering the above, I think Gold has held up pretty well.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Gold still one to watch.

still in this cont pattern, showing buyer support on the trend line.

CCI is showing a buy but I am waiting for some more strength, I am even looking more to a break out of $690 to confirm the pattern.

still waiting and watching.


----------



## wayneL

I'm stepping cautiously into some august longs here.

The USD is starting to look weak again,  and the the price is just edging over the supply trendline.

Small pozzie, and will pyramid up to normal size if it gets on with it over the session.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well more short term weakness is creeping in with last nights price push rejected and now a minor descending triangle formed around short term price.

I was thinking about opening some positions but now more then ever I want to see this trend line (Blue Line) hold.

testing times on the short term.


----------



## wayneL

Yes TI,

Bear counterattack last night... and Dollar bulls on the March. I quickly retreated to my fox hole


----------



## SGB

Interesting....

Steven Hochberg is Chief Market Analyst for Elliott Wave International, a financial forecasting firm in Gainesville, Ga., and a close associate of Robert Prechter, who founded the company in 1979. He is also co-editor of the financial newsletter The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and Short Term Update. Mr. Hochberg began his professional career with Merrill Lynch & Co. and joined Elliott Wave International in 1994. 

Here The Gold Report gets his latest insights on the outlook for gold according to the Elliott Wave Theory. 

TGR: You have indicated that you expect to see a decline in the price of gold: ”There is greater bearish potential than even a decline to around $450, but we won’t know for certain until we see the technical make-up of the sell-off toward this level.” With gold now closing hovering in the mid-$600s, do you still forecast a decline in the range of $450? If so, do you see gold tracking downward in the near term or later in the year?

SH: Gold completed its upward correction a few weeks after we last spoke, on February 27, at $699, basis the June contract. Prices tested this level in late April and since then have come off about $50. We think this decline is the start of our forecasted move.

TGR: Have you seen any significant changes in investor sentiment toward gold in the past three months? Are there any new trends emerging that give greater support to gold? Conversely, that would undermine gold’s rise?

SH: There was a definite change in investor attitude toward gold at the April retest of the February high. Investor optimism reached 90% according to the Daily Sentiment Index. Historically, such extremes signify that a gold rally is in its late stages. This extreme happened to coincide closely with the high. At the same time, numerous stories started to pop up stating that gold was on its way to $800 or higher. So the backdrop was conducive for a gold high and subsequent reversal, which appears to be under way.

TGR: Given the extreme volatility, what is the Wave Principle forecasting now with regard to future market behavior? Are the wave patterns suggesting what the market is likely to do or not do over the coming six months?

SH: Gold’s trend in the coming months should be down. The decline, which will be punctuated by countertrend rallies when pessimism becomes extreme in the near term, should eventually draw prices to below $500, which the Wave Principle indicates is the minimum downside target. Once prices fulfill this forecast, we will assess the pattern and indicators to determine if there is greater bearish potential, or if a significant and long-lasting bottom is forming that will lead to a major price advance.

TGR: You stated in our previous interview with you: “Economic conditions have nothing to do with when and how gold moves. For example, most people view gold as the ultimate inflation hedge. Yet suppose you knew for certain that inflation would triple the money supply over a period of 20+ years. What would you expect gold prices to do? Most gold investors would expect the price to soar. Well, from 1980-2003, M1 more than tripled, and gold prices lost over 50% of their value.” This opinion seems contrary to what other pundits are saying. Namely, that the more value the dollar loses, the more attractive gold looks and the higher the price goes.

SH: A big mistake pundits make is to assume a fixed inverse correlation between the US dollar index and gold. There is none. There are indeed long periods of time when the dollar goes down and gold goes up (and vice versa) but there are other times when they both rally or decline together. For instance, from April 1995 to February 1996, the US Dollar index rallied over 8%. Over this same period, gold was up nearly 6%. We find that it’s best to analyze each market individually instead of assuming a relationship that may or may not exist, which will get you into analytical trouble more often then not. This holds true with nearly all markets.

TGR: You mentioned in our last interview that the only precondition for application of wave analysis is that the market being analyzed must be freely traded --- do you believe that gold is freely traded? GATA has gathered an inordinate amount of evidence that the gold market has been managed since 1994 by a cartel consisting of bullion banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, etc.), the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bank for International Settlements. 

SH: I am not intimately familiar with all of GATA’s arguments, so it is difficult for me to comment on specifics. I do know that there are some highly intelligent people in the organization and others who agree with GATA’s view. My own personal views do not lend themselves to grand conspiracies, but I try to keep an open mind when presented with evidence. The key for me is to look at a market and see if there is a clear and compelling Elliott wave. If I see one, then odds are extremely low that the market in question is being manipulated to any degree that would change its course. If it were, there would be no wave pattern. As for gold, you can tell from our discussion that I do see a clear Elliott wave pattern.  (5/29/07)


----------



## METALMAN

Posted On: Tuesday, November 19, 2002, 6:45:00 PM EST
 A Time for Reflection
 Author: Jim Sinclair

I believe that I serve this investment community not only in my capacity to impart to you the value of my experience and in hopefully balancing the strong emotions that are common to precious metals trading. 


In that capacity, I have been the recipient over the period of September 23 to today of conservatively 2000 emails, the majority of which demonstrated no commitment fundamentally to a potential bull market in gold. I have repeatedly suggested that investment in any field, whether gold, tech, biomeds, bombed-out utilities or whatever, requires first and foremost a strong, well-thought-out fundamental viewpoint. All the technical studies you do will at best break you, even if you have no fundamental understanding and adherence bullish/bearish to the selected field of investment. 

It is time that you determine where you stand fundamentally on the gold issue. If you do not, then you are destined to make a significant donation of your fortune in the name of your refusal to do the required homework. I have outlined in the form of editorials and VIP posting all the criteria required for a long-term bull market in gold. You can hear all the contrary opinions on gold simply by going to Tim Wood's web site, www.miningweb.com. He has not yet failed to point out every possible negative factor, thereby serving an important role as the devil's advocate. Of course, one wonders who financially the devil is in Tim's situation. You therefore have both sides of the debate on gold's future. Among www.financialsense.com, www.lemetropolecafe.com and www.miningweb.com you have a wealth of information from which to make informed decisions. Please make the effort and come to a decision, and then adhere to that decision. 

As it stands now, the gold market is made up of investors of opportunity, speculators and those that are seeking insurance. The investors of opportunity seem to me to be primarily professional who, because of their experience, are staying ahead of the market successfully. The speculators are being chewed to pieces because they seem undisciplined technically and without commitment fundamentally either bullishly or bearishly. They, the speculators, make up the bulk of those that have come to me in the recent decline in gold and gold-related investments seeking direction or simply unloading emotions. Those of the insurance category seem to me as more mature participants who have the experience of the 1968 to 1980 period behind them and a strong commitment to a positive future for gold. 

It is the middle group, the speculators without technical training or fundamental commitment, who need to deeply examine what they are doing and if they are making money. It is this group that I feel have the greatest chance of going broke bullish in a bull market in gold. It is this group that would be well advised to find something they could believe in and stay there. It is this group that had better stop dealing in gold, gold shares, silver and silver shares while they still have some money left. It is this group that no one can help because they will not help themselves. It is this group that have unburdened themselves by heaping burden on me, taking away my time from those that are truly interested in learning, in being disciplined and in making a success of their investment careers not only in gold but in the many areas of future attention. *It is this group which appears to me to be terminally at financial risk if they continue what they are doing. It is for this group that I offer only one suggestion: STOP NOW by using gold's strength to leave while you can with financial dignity, for certainly you will panic again and dump your positions at the bottom of a simple reaction.*


----------



## >Apocalypto<

METALMAN said:


> Posted On: Tuesday, November 19, 2002, 6:45:00 PM EST
> A Time for Reflection
> Author: Jim Sinclair
> 
> I believe that I serve this investment community not only in my capacity to impart to you the value of my experience and in hopefully balancing the strong emotions that are common to precious metals trading.
> 
> 
> In that capacity, I have been the recipient over the period of September 23 to today of conservatively 2000 emails, the majority of which demonstrated no commitment fundamentally to a potential bull market in gold. I have repeatedly suggested that investment in any field, whether gold, tech, biomeds, bombed-out utilities or whatever, requires first and foremost a strong, well-thought-out fundamental viewpoint. All the technical studies you do will at best break you, even if you have no fundamental understanding and adherence bullish/bearish to the selected field of investment.
> 
> It is time that you determine where you stand fundamentally on the gold issue. If you do not, then you are destined to make a significant donation of your fortune in the name of your refusal to do the required homework. I have outlined in the form of editorials and VIP posting all the criteria required for a long-term bull market in gold. You can hear all the contrary opinions on gold simply by going to Tim Wood's web site, www.miningweb.com. He has not yet failed to point out every possible negative factor, thereby serving an important role as the devil's advocate. Of course, one wonders who financially the devil is in Tim's situation. You therefore have both sides of the debate on gold's future. Among www.financialsense.com, www.lemetropolecafe.com and www.miningweb.com you have a wealth of information from which to make informed decisions. Please make the effort and come to a decision, and then adhere to that decision.
> 
> As it stands now, the gold market is made up of investors of opportunity, speculators and those that are seeking insurance. The investors of opportunity seem to me to be primarily professional who, because of their experience, are staying ahead of the market successfully. The speculators are being chewed to pieces because they seem undisciplined technically and without commitment fundamentally either bullishly or bearishly. They, the speculators, make up the bulk of those that have come to me in the recent decline in gold and gold-related investments seeking direction or simply unloading emotions. Those of the insurance category seem to me as more mature participants who have the experience of the 1968 to 1980 period behind them and a strong commitment to a positive future for gold.
> 
> It is the middle group, the speculators without technical training or fundamental commitment, who need to deeply examine what they are doing and if they are making money. It is this group that I feel have the greatest chance of going broke bullish in a bull market in gold. It is this group that would be well advised to find something they could believe in and stay there. It is this group that had better stop dealing in gold, gold shares, silver and silver shares while they still have some money left. It is this group that no one can help because they will not help themselves. It is this group that have unburdened themselves by heaping burden on me, taking away my time from those that are truly interested in learning, in being disciplined and in making a success of their investment careers not only in gold but in the many areas of future attention. *It is this group which appears to me to be terminally at financial risk if they continue what they are doing. It is for this group that I offer only one suggestion: STOP NOW by using gold's strength to leave while you can with financial dignity, for certainly you will panic again and dump your positions at the bottom of a simple reaction.*




...and all that meant?


----------



## Kauri

METALMAN said:


> Posted On: *Tuesday, November 19, 2002, 6:45:00 PM EST*
> A Time for Reflection
> Author: Jim Sinclair
> 
> I believe that I serve this investment community not only in my capacity to impart to you the value of my experience and in hopefully balancing the strong emotions that are common to precious metals trading.




Timely post.....  ...


----------



## METALMAN

Worth Reading .... 

And rereading.


----------



## professor_frink

METALMAN said:


> Worth Reading ....
> 
> And rereading.




hey what's going on? I read it once. It was an article from nearly 5 years ago. I read it again....... and it was still an article from nearly 5 years ago


----------



## Magdoran

Currently Gold has been in a short term bearish move since the high on the 20th of April 2007. If my cycle analysis is correct, Gold should rally up from here, and the cycle termination (up) I am looking at should be either 17 July or 22 August.

The current dominant cycle I perceive in the daily chart is bullish, but the price action recently has been bearish, hence some confusion.  My suspicion is that this current move may be a short term counter trend to a bullish cycle which I project should complete around the 17 July (possibly as late as 22 August) before a more sustained pull back in the medium term. 

wavepicker has forecast Gold in a downward phase for the longer term cycle before resuming bullishly potentially next year – note though that price action does not necessarily translate neatly into cycles, hence an end of a cycle may actually be a higher low (or lower high) in price, with a time increment in the cycle being where the actual price low (high) occurs.  

So, if there is a bullish resumption from last nights bar, I suspect that this will terminate at some point (suspect the termination dates), and either retest the major low (past low dates: 14 June 06 or 04 October 06), or move sideways and base for a while till the cycle wavepicker has identified in the longer term plays out, and the 8.5 year cycle resumes bullishly (assuming this cycle is correct). 

But the problem for me is timing, and the current bearish price action looks to me to be the end of a counter trend and may have found support last night.  (Please see the chart where I think this may turn to attempt to resume bullishly).

The question is when will Gold find support, and will it be enough to support a bullish leg up?  If 30 May does find support, this could be very bullish and a logical place I’d expect to see Gold rally.  But it must do so either tonight or Friday night, and this low must hold.

All of this is assuming that the existing cycle I have been using since October 2006 is still valid (and was still valid on 06 May).  A lot will depend on the emerging pattern, but I have to say that currently this looks like it is still trying to break up to me to wash out the buyers before moving bearishly to complete the bearish leg of the longer term cycle wavepicker has identified (then of course resume bullishly in the much longer term 8.5 year cycle he has identified). 




> Key Date:   30 May.
> Major Dates:  17 July (completion?), 11 June, 22 August.
> Minor Dates:  24 May, 29 June.




That’s what I see currently.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some strange things continue to happen to gold. Here's one for the conspiracy brigade.
This comment is from Peter Grandich, via Kitco, so could have a bias towards gold, but the alignment of selling pressure at about the same time every day is highly correlated. 



> It’s also been absolutely hammered – not only by aggressive central bank selling, but by a continuing pattern of strange selling on the Comex that almost always is concentrated around the 11 a.m. time frame. The fact that this is when most of the physical buying worldwide shuts down until later in the evening in Asia is no coincidence.



http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/may292007.html

I have placed sell arrows at the same time every day on the chart; apart from about 3 instances, there is a pronounced dip in the gold price soon after.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Magdoran said:


> Currently Gold has been in a short term bearish move since the high on the 20th of April 2007. If my cycle analysis is correct, Gold should rally up from here, and the cycle termination (up) I am looking at should be either 17 July or 22 August.
> 
> The current dominant cycle I perceive in the daily chart is bullish, but the price action recently has been bearish, hence some confusion.  My suspicion is that this current move may be a short term counter trend to a bullish cycle which I project should complete around the 17 July (possibly as late as 22 August) before a more sustained pull back in the medium term.
> 
> wavepicker has forecast Gold in a downward phase for the longer term cycle before resuming bullishly potentially next year – note though that price action does not necessarily translate neatly into cycles, hence an end of a cycle may actually be a higher low (or lower high) in price, with a time increment in the cycle being where the actual price low (high) occurs.
> 
> So, if there is a bullish resumption from last nights bar, I suspect that this will terminate at some point (suspect the termination dates), and either retest the major low (past low dates: 14 June 06 or 04 October 06), or move sideways and base for a while till the cycle wavepicker has identified in the longer term plays out, and the 8.5 year cycle resumes bullishly (assuming this cycle is correct).
> 
> But the problem for me is timing, and the current bearish price action looks to me to be the end of a counter trend and may have found support last night.  (Please see the chart where I think this may turn to attempt to resume bullishly).
> 
> The question is when will Gold find support, and will it be enough to support a bullish leg up?  If 30 May does find support, this could be very bullish and a logical place I’d expect to see Gold rally.  But it must do so either tonight or Friday night, and this low must hold.
> 
> All of this is assuming that the existing cycle I have been using since October 2006 is still valid (and was still valid on 06 May).  A lot will depend on the emerging pattern, but I have to say that currently this looks like it is still trying to break up to me to wash out the buyers before moving bearishly to complete the bearish leg of the longer term cycle wavepicker has identified (then of course resume bullishly in the much longer term 8.5 year cycle he has identified).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That’s what I see currently.
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran




Mag that was a thing of beauty! and I am very happy to see one of your charts with you thoughts attached. Great stuff Mag!


I am still overall bullish on gold i still see this ascending triangle in tact and i am waiting very calmly to see it break and hold over 690 then i will be in hooks and all!


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Some strange things continue to happen to gold. Here's one for the conspiracy brigade.
> This comment is from Peter Grandich, via Kitco, so could have a bias towards gold, but the alignment of selling pressure at about the same time every day is highly correlated.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/may292007.html
> 
> I have placed sell arrows at the same time every day on the chart; apart from about 3 instances, there is a pronounced dip in the gold price soon after.




Amazing UF, have you tried a short or two?

Nice charts Mag...always good to see your work.

Cheers,


----------



## Kimosabi

Uncle Festivus said:


> Some strange things continue to happen to gold. Here's one for the conspiracy brigade.
> This comment is from Peter Grandich, via Kitco, so could have a bias towards gold, but the alignment of selling pressure at about the same time every day is highly correlated.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/may292007.html
> 
> I have placed sell arrows at the same time every day on the chart; apart from about 3 instances, there is a pronounced dip in the gold price soon after.




I don't think there is any conspiracy, we have got some central banks, ie Spain dumping gold on the market at the moment, which is going to suppress the Gold price for a while...


----------



## boiler

Could be a small positive .

New demand for gold from diesel engine pollution control catalysts
Gold-containing exhaust emission control catalysts could provide an excellent opportunity for the gold industry. Tri-metal catalyst can outperform platinum-palladium combinations and save costs. 

Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted:  Thursday , 31 May 2007 

JOHANNESBURG -  

A new demand stream for gold could be created if recently unveiled gold-containing catalysts are applied to control diesel vehicle pollution. 

Dr Richard Holliday of the World Gold Council told Mineweb that if gold became a player in the autocatalyst market for precious metals, it could be a very useful new source of demand for the metal. 

The likely loadings of gold on the catalyst or the range of applications it will be used in is not know yet. But annual demand for platinum group metals in car catalysts exceeding 250 tonnes a year is some indication.

Holland said the gold industry should see this first introduction of a gold-containing catalyst for use in diesel vehicle oxidation as an excellent opportunity to create a new demand stream for gold.

Nanostellar, described as a leader in nano-engineered catalyst materials, introduced gold as an oxidation catalyst in diesel emissions technology for the first time in April this year.  

It announced a gold or tri-metal catalyst (platinum, palladium, gold) that enables manufacturers of light- and heavy-duty diesel engines to reduce harmful emissions up to 40% more than existing platinum-palladium catalysts at equal cost

Its first generation product, based on a platinum and palladium alloy, introduced in 2006, achieved a 25-30% higher performance than commercial pure platinum catalysts. And the second generation product, the gold containing catalyst, delivers a further 15-20% increase in performance. 

Platinum is the most expensive component of the diesel oxidation catalysts required to meet the new, stringent emissions regulations for light-duty and heavy-duty diesel vehicles produced worldwide. 

Therefore, producers of catalyst materials have introduced the use of palladium to partially replace the more expensive platinum. Now gold - about half the price of platinum - is being pioneered to further reduce the amount of platinum needed as well as the overall cost of catalysts. 

The tri-metal formulation of gold, platinum and palladium in diesel catalysts allows the proportions of each metal to be adjusted to meet engine-specific performance targets and to stabilise the overall cost - despite fluctuations in the price of precious metals.  

The catalyst does not only improve on the performance of mixed platinum and palladium catalysts, but can also be more easily tuned to the characteristics of a variety of diesel engines, according to Nanostellar. 

Holland added that although car manufacturers are often conservative in changing from one technology to another, the potential of cost saving would certainly act as a major enticement. 



cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

this is looking promising!

long on gold now


----------



## Magdoran

Trade_It said:


> this is looking promising!
> 
> long on gold now



Just watch out for a brief pull back to make a higher low (assuming there will be a bullish drive as outlined).  This is where I’d be looking to go long for a swing trade rather than a very short term play.

Maybe Gold rallies right up hard from here, but I’d be more inclined to see at least some king of ABC structure at minimum, or even a double zig zag perhaps, hence you could look to position for a long on a pull back, and set a stop below the 30 May low (it is possible to spike below this, and resume bullishly so watch out for that kind of price action  - also note the key dates listed, this may give some indication of probabilities depending on the way gold trades into these dates, and the emerging pattern of trend).


Regards


Magdoran

P.S Please ignore my EW count, still working on this, and not happy with it so far...  Mag


----------



## CanOz

I thought i would attach the COT gold chart for interest. Notice how the commercials were thinning out thier short positions as the price came down. 

Whats also interesting is that according to this graph, the commericals have never been long on gold unlike other COT graphs were at times the've been on both sides of the trades. I wonder why?

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Magdoran said:


> Just watch out for a brief pull back to make a higher low (assuming there will be a bullish drive as outlined).  This is where I’d be looking to go long for a swing trade rather than a very short term play.
> 
> Maybe Gold rallies right up hard from here, but I’d be more inclined to see at least some king of ABC structure at minimum, or even a double zig zag perhaps, hence you could look to position for a long on a pull back, and set a stop below the 30 May low (it is possible to spike below this, and resume bullishly so watch out for that kind of price action  - also note the key dates listed, this may give some indication of probabilities depending on the way gold trades into these dates, and the emerging pattern of trend).
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran
> 
> P.S Please ignore my EW count, still working on this, and not happy with it so far...  Mag




agree with you mag,

due to my entry price of 656 i only opened two minis as i also think there could be a pull back. as long as it stays true i will look to add.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> I thought i would attach the COT gold chart for interest. Notice how the commercials were thinning out thier short positions as the price came down.
> 
> Whats also interesting is that according to this graph, the commericals have never been long on gold unlike other COT graphs were at times the've been on both sides of the trades. I wonder why?
> 
> Cheers,




Can is that saying long or short or waiting?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> my entry price of 656.





Correction, I entered at $665 not $656.


----------



## CanOz

Trade_It said:


> Can is that saying long or short or waiting?





It just means that the commercials (the so called "smart" money)have reduced thier short positions....just something to watch and see how it works with the price...who knows with gold.

Cheers,


----------



## bean

COT's in gold and silver read interesting
http://http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-22-07.html

http://http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-29-07.html


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> It just means that the commercials (the so called "smart" money)have reduced thier short positions....just something to watch and see how it works with the price...who knows with gold.
> 
> Cheers,





Cheers Can,

That add's more support to what I am seeing on the chart, looks like there just waiting for confirmation.

how is your system coming along buddy?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well........

what a night US dollar made a return to the spot light. stopped on that trade, but its still above its trend line.

looking for another bounce.


----------



## bean

With the US Markets falling and Gold and US Gold indexes droping (Gold Indexes have drop 4 nights in a row)  More than likely a bounce tonight?
US Gold Indexes are breaking down and dropping below various moving averages

Will there be a test of US$ 650 on Monday or tuesday night?


----------



## Magdoran

The next time increment for Gold is 11 June (Monday night).  If gold moves down into this date, and the 650.84 price holds, this would indicate a bullish probability (there are no certainties here, the whole bearish drive from April may well continue here, that is certainly possible).

The rally I called requires that a higher low is made.  As expected, gold found resistance and has pulled back.  This may be a long opportunity given that there is a precise time and price point.  If this is invalidated (broken to the downside), then a strong bearish move becomes quite probable.

If gold rallies into 11 June, this may represent RESISTANCE in time, which may slow or halt any bullish attempts.

Hence we have a picture of where Gold will indicate a probability – How it trades into the 11th June will indicate where gold is likely to go – if the 11th holds = Bullish, 11th invalidated = bearish.  Based on my cycle work, I will maintain a bullish view in the daily chart until the pattern is invalidated.

It is of course possible a sideways pattern may eventuate for a short period if this is the termination of a smaller degree wave 4 in progress (wavepicker???).

Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wavepicker

Magdoran said:


> The next time increment for Gold is 11 June (Monday night).  If gold moves down into this date, and the 650.84 price holds, this would indicate a bullish probability (there are no certainties here, the whole bearish drive from April may well continue here, that is certainly possible).
> 
> The rally I called requires that a higher low is made.  As expected, gold found resistance and has pulled back.  This may be a long opportunity given that there is a precise time and price point.  If this is invalidated (broken to the downside), then a strong bearish move becomes quite probable.
> 
> If gold rallies into 11 June, this may represent RESISTANCE in time, which may slow or halt any bullish attempts.
> 
> Hence we have a picture of where Gold will indicate a probability – How it trades into the 11th June will indicate where gold is likely to go – if the 11th holds = Bullish, 11th invalidated = bearish.  Based on my cycle work, I will maintain a bullish view in the daily chart until the pattern is invalidated.
> 
> It is of course possible a sideways pattern may eventuate for a short period if this is the termination of a smaller degree wave 4 in progress (wavepicker???).
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran





Mag,

Have a look at the USD Index, specifically the decline since the (92.53) 14 Nov 2005 high. The decline down has been very much a struggling tend, it's a classic Ending Diagonal pattern under EW parlance(The market is finding it very very hard to go down). What is so convincing about this pattern is that it appears to be a accompanied by a 5th wave failure. The combination of both these is bullish for the dollar with a sharp upward thrust that will start very soon if not already. What will this mean for Gold?? Well that is difficult, but at the very least it may mean a continuation of the nett sideways move that started in April last year, at least until the 8.5 year cycle bottoms out in 2008/9.

If more importance however is that if the USD does rally from here which I think it will, then commodities will be doing it tough, So the commodity perma bulls will hav eto do some real hard thinking in the years to come.

Just on ED patterns in general, I must say that I have not seen so many so many of these patterns than what is evident in ASX200 stocks now

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> If more importance however is that if the USD does rally from here which I think it will, then commodities will be doing it tough, So the commodity perma bulls will hav eto do some real hard thinking in the years to come.



Conversely, if the USD does rally, the shine for currenices like the AUD (which its run is due in part to USD weakness) will come off... thereby increasing the worth of commodities to Australian based resource companies.



wavepicker said:


> Just on ED patterns in general, I must say that I have not seen so many so many of these patterns than what is evident in ASX200 stocks now
> 
> Cheers



And to be fair, you said the same thing last time the market tanked.

However, I don't have any longs on my paper traded market weighters. "Shorts" on CSL and MBL look to have been the most profitable. CSL looks like it might be quite interesting for someone like yourself. Appears to have just finished a W5.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## bean

chops_a_must said:


> Conversely, if the USD does rally, the shine for currenices like the AUD (which its run is due in part to USD weakness) will come off... thereby increasing the worth of commodities to Australian based resource companies.
> 
> Cheers,
> Chops.




True and false the $ will be rising because not interest rate cuts or not as many as people would expect.  But the US economy is slowing and a rising $ there will slow expansion.  Most of the DOW stocks there profits have been due to a weak US $.  there housing market is a mess and well rising interest rates,  If the market corrects severely everything will be hit including commodities that will offset any movement in the $.  
All shares will drop NO PRISONERS


----------



## BlueDaze

*Don Coxe - Inflation Is Back, Buy Gold*

Key points:
- Gold was down due to weakeness in German GDP and Yen
- Bonds have started a bear market
- Pressure of supply side driven *food* inflation will force higher interest rates
- Recommendation is still to buy gold

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Conversely, if the USD does rally, the shine for currenices like the AUD (which its run is due in part to USD weakness) will come off... thereby increasing the worth of commodities to Australian based resource companies.




Theoretically and logically what you say is true. But expecting what is  fundementally logical in the market is big mistake sometimes. Historically commodities such as the metals have not done as spectacular when the USD firms



chops_a_must said:


> And to be fair, you said the same thing last time the market tanked.
> However, I don't have any longs on my paper traded market weighters. "Shorts" on CSL and MBL look to have been the most profitable. CSL looks like it might be quite interesting for someone like yourself. Appears to have just finished a W5.




Yes I did say that chops, and the market did tank thereafter albeit briefly, because it was just plain obvious, it was looking at you straight in the face. 

As for the stocks, I don't trade them except on very rare occasions when I see something that standsout. I prefer to tinker with the indexes and especially FX markets where we have more volatility.


----------



## bean

bean said:


> With the US Markets falling and Gold and US Gold indexes droping (Gold Indexes have drop 4 nights in a row)  More than likely a bounce tonight?
> US Gold Indexes are breaking down and dropping below various moving averages
> 
> Will there be a test of US$ 650 on Monday or tuesday night?




US Gold Indexes broke down last week I had a false breakout bought and sold.

Well we had a test up Monday and test down Tuesday and the trend is now in place.
Long Termhttp://http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1181660400.php

however we will test US$540 soon (June???)

US Markets bears are in control.  and well if price of Gold to drop 20%
I reckon US Markets will drop ??%
And the next few days if the US Markets drop expect the % of drop to be increasing


----------



## Boyou

Some (long range) positive news for Gold.From Yesterday's edition of The Daily Reckoner

--The emergence of Sovereign Wealth Funds could be good news for gold. 
ScotiaMacotta, the bullion division of the Bank of Nova Scotia, issued a new 
report predicting an increase in investment demand for precious metals, 
especially gold. 

--The bank wrote that, "Going forward, it looks as though interest across the 
commodities is picking up again and this should see a renewed interest in 
gold, especially as the fundamentals for the metal remain broadly supported. 
In addition, the dynamics of sovereign reserves seems to be changing and 
these could have fear-reaching implications for the dollar, all of which 
could be bullish for gold."

--A pickup in investment demand would be a relief for the gold price. 
Holdings of bullion by gold ETFs actually declined in April from 651 million 
tonnes to 635 million tonnes. After the initial loading up, institutions had 
their fill and have backed off. 
.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

US Markets bears are in control.  and well if price of Gold to drop 20%
I reckon US Markets will drop ??%
And the next few days if the US Markets drop expect the % of drop to be increasing[/QUOTE]


*Not any more there not Bean* there was a obvious line of support drawn by the bulls and I am in.

Like I thought US rose again last night. I see a retrace coming and that will confirm this new break out or retest support, In my view the bulls are just about back in command.

Gold has had the US$ to deal with but still hanging in there Magdoran was very right in his call of zig zag movement which is what its doing.

WELL DONE Mag!

right now I can't be bearish or bullish on Gold it's a real patience required!

the only other outside force starting to brew is Black Gold looking more and more bullish which is good and bad I spose!


----------



## Sean K

1040 [Dow Jones] Spot gold will need physical demand to keep prices above $640-$645/oz following news of Swiss National Bank gold sales, and amid general shift to higher-yielding assets, says Kitco analyst Jon Nadler; recent high gold prices have prompted Spain, Belgium, a few other central banks to sell to realign reserves as rising gold price implies growing percentage of reserves in gold, and Nadler says funds now also starting to sell to realign holdings. For now, "gold's 'sterile' character (no yields, no dividends) remains unappealing in a rising rate environment." Spot gold last at $652.80, +$1.20 vs late NY. (EFB)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Could it be just the beginning of the transfer of wealth from 'old' economies to the new? A lot of these gold sales by CB's are going towards paying off debt, obviously, while the buyers in the new economies eg China, India & Russia are only too happy to oblige & buy all they can get their hands on, as shown by how well the dips are supported by strong physical demand from these places, as well as middle east oil kingdoms.
Oil is ready to break to the upside, which means more petro dollars coming golds way again maybe, and diversifying out of $US into 'other' currencies, including gold.
Throw away the charts, stick with the fundamentals?


----------



## bean

Trade_It said:


> US Markets bears are in control.  and well if price of Gold to drop 20%
> I reckon US Markets will drop ??%
> And the next few days if the US Markets drop expect the % of drop to be increasing





*Not any more there not Bean* there was a obvious line of support drawn by the bulls and I am in.

Like I thought US rose again last night. I see a retrace coming and that will confirm this new break out or retest support, In my view the bulls are just about back in command.

Gold has had the US$ to deal with but still hanging in there Magdoran was very right in his call of zig zag movement which is what its doing.

WELL DONE Mag!


right now I can't be bearish or bullish on Gold it's a real patience required!

the only other outside force starting to brew is Black Gold looking more and more bullish which is good and bad I spose![/QUOTE]


Yes, bulls may be just about back in command S&P 500 1522 resistence 1530 will that be top of a right shoulder.  also longer charts nice double top 2000 and 2007?
China is it forming a doulbe top?
Gold clinging to US$650 but its still going US$ 540 when? 
(sooner rather than later)

http://http://www.financialsense.com/market/daily/tuesday.htm


----------



## Magdoran

bean said:


> Yes, bulls may be just about back in command S&P 500 1522 resistence 1530 will that be top of a right shoulder.  also longer charts nice double top 2000 and 2007?
> China is it forming a doulbe top?
> Gold clinging to US$650 but its still going US$ 540 when?
> (sooner rather than later)
> 
> http://http://www.financialsense.com/market/daily/tuesday.htm



Hello Bean,


Since you mentioned it, are you still bearish on the US markets currently as you have forecast many times?  Please post exact dates and price levels for the S&P 500 as attached.

It would be interesting for you to also give the exact date of the $540 low for Gold that you are forecasting please, since it is of little use to mention a price level without putting it in a time context.  In the markets, timing is everything.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Kauri

Gold for mine is, by my count, a tad messy currently. Could be sub-dividing down again but the last tentative abc W2 correction seems out of proportion, so although momentum is picking up I am on the sidelines until the picture becomes clearer to me. Plenty of cleaner more obvious trades out there.


----------



## GreatPig

One must also remember that this gold chart is in US$. The A$ version doesn't look quite the same. Specifically, where there's a similar peak in April to the one in February on the US$ chart, the April one was much lower on the A$ chart.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Kauri

GreatPig said:


> One must also remember that this gold chart is in US$. The A$ version doesn't look quite the same. Specifically, where there's a similar peak in April to the one in February on the US$ chart, the April one was much lower on the A$ chart.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




   GP,
         Good point... The chart I use is a 24Hr traded MM type spot, which is different to the daily traded futures contract and the ETF versions. Hence the general lack of gaps in my charts.  
   Cheers
             Kauri


----------



## bean

Magdoran said:


> Hello Bean,
> 
> 
> Since you mentioned it, are you still bearish on the US markets currently as you have forecast many times?  Please post exact dates and price levels for the S&P 500 as attached.
> 
> It would be interesting for you to also give the exact date of the $540 low for Gold that you are forecasting please, since it is of little use to mention a price level without putting it in a time context.  In the markets, timing is everything.
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran




The $540 low in Gold is dependent on when the markets tank.
Will have more idea on the timing then. within 2-4weeks of falling.
What I do know is the US Gold indexes that I used are not on buy signals.  In a bull stock market and gold indexes have been rising nearly as many days as the S&P 500 yet are at a lower price than 21st March when the advance started in US stocks   15.48	- 138.7 -	341.83
There readings on friday USERX HUI XAU 15.21 -140.77  - 336.27
And Gold from US 690 to US 650
Where is the Bullish there.  I have been completely right being a bear.

The US stock Market Indexes are again oversold so if we get a rise monday then more than likely fall tuesday and wednesday.
If Gold and US gold Indexes 'rise monday' then down and testing 650 again


----------



## bean

bean said:


> The US stock Market Indexes are again oversold so if we get a rise monday then more than likely fall tuesday and wednesday.
> If Gold and US gold Indexes 'rise monday' then down and testing 650 again




Well I used the word "IF" a few times in the quote because the US markets are "OVERBOUGHT" not "oversold" 
So any rise the next few days could be capped.  I see downward preesure.
Any major rise puts it completely oversold.

Rise in China today maybe will complete there double top?

Gold - Gold rose but the indexes just fell.  So may see the test of US 650 tonight/tomorrow?


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Well I used the word "IF" a few times in the quote because the US markets are "OVERBOUGHT" not "oversold"
> So any rise the next few days could be capped.  I see downward preesure.
> Any major rise puts it completely oversold.
> 
> Rise in China today maybe will complete there double top?
> 
> Gold - Gold rose but the indexes just fell.  So may see the test of US 650 tonight/tomorrow?




They will be those that say Gold didn't test US$ 650 
I knew the US Gold indexes were going down and the US Markets were going down. So that was right

China double top?  If it wasn't won't be long.

US Gold Indexes they still have down pressure.  However US Markets can rise as they got rid of some of there near term 'overbought' condition (sorry kept on mentioning oversold).
But I still expect the Gold Indexes to drop? 
Tonight? Tomorrow night?
And does that mean US Market falls tonight again?


----------



## bean

Testing the US$ 650 looks like I was a day out


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Testing the US$ 650 looks like I was a day out



But didn't the US market go up? Wasn't that a prediction yesterday - market down? 

You're making so many predictions that I can't keep up with them all.

I suppose, you'll get it all right one day bean and you'll be a genius.


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> You're making so many predictions that I can't keep up with them all.
> 
> I suppose, you'll get it all right one day bean and you'll be a genius.




Kennas ....just for you but you have to wait before you can pick.


The action in Gold and US Gold Indexes tonight and Monday night
will determine if my bearishness has been justified.
It is not the action tonight it is both.
If I happen to get what I am looking for then expect fireworks in all world markets next week?

I entered the pattern, I think will happen in both Gold Indexes and US markets and some Global Markets.
and I get "very bearish" view.
Could be a US$ 20 - US$ 50 move in gold

Now of course I could be wrong and get something completely different. - 'Like the opposite' which is a distinct possibility.
Which I may know tonight or monday depending on the action I get.

Maybe this should also be posted on Imminent and severe market correction...or the rubbish bin
Remember people its not so much what happens tonight (it is a "little") Its the things that may happen next week!!

Note. I have also started monitoring US Bond markets again
So am working a few markets together here


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> You're making so many predictions that I can't keep up with them all.




First I said market top Dow(closing) 9th May 13363
Dow high got to 13676  just over 2% more
Nasdaq high 2576 it reach 2627 just made 2% more
I also said Gold when it was at US$690 and I said wasn't going higher
now trading at US$650

This week
 On Monday I said China may close the day at double top since then its dropped 4.5%
I also said on Monday Gold would rise and drop back to US$650 which it did last night.
I also said that rises in the US markets were capped for rises this week because of overbought condition  which has played out.

Really if you look at the 'big picture' I have been pretty right when you look at what I have said.  

So Kennas what is your problem
Just because I don't use charts I use numbers I can't show what I see.


----------



## OK2

I think you are right on these few points, but you have mentioned so many different points in the past which have not taken place. Surely if you mention everything you will inevitably be right on something.

I like following gold and even all the so-called experts who have a more limited opinion have been right and wrong on their gold calls. Gold is clearly following it's own path with no alliance to oil, currency or the international markets.

Watch and see


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I think for gold to really shine D) a few things need to happen first. The first one is for US interest rates to remain steady or fall. This is probable if the mortgage meltdown gets worse. The second will be a flight to perceived safety, which traditionally will be the $US. After the initial rise in the $US there will be a dramatic reversal as it becomes clearer that it is doomed. In the meantime gold will be under some pressure & even lower. Maybe we are at that stage now?
Once the $US breaks below 80 gold will have it's day in the sun.

Some volatile times ahead but they will present a once in a lifetime opportunity to get set in an exploding gold market. Stage 3, the mania phase, is close comrades


----------



## bean

OK2 said:


> I like following gold and even all the so-called experts who have a more limited opinion have been right and wrong on their gold calls. Gold is clearly following it's own path with no alliance to oil, currency or the international markets.
> 
> Watch and see




So -Called experts agree.  I follow and listen to a few only
The following link he does Gold Posts every now and again. He is a Bull/Bear because he is a trader.  I did my post the other day before he put this out and I totally agree with him.  Its also why I keep mentioning US$ 650 because that is pretty close to being the line in the sand

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1182524400.php

Now the  othe person I follow. A short term top in his Gold Index was made tuesday. So I knew any rise in Gold was limited and well it had downward pressure.
The run pattern need a small day up today...The Gold Indexes 'just' finished 'down' Gold finished 'up'.  Goldcorp the US stock I follow finished up...but just not enough to be 100% sure in what I said  (In my post I said a 'LITTLE" what I wanted was just a little rise).

Monday...well..could easily get a bounce in US Market.
The thing is Gold Indexes are still close to a stage for a breakout or breakdown because the fall in the Indexes has not been big.  They are winding up like a coil.  So I do know the move when it happens (Gold its self  been US662 and US650 so its winding up as well) will be 'big'  The US markets well depending on the action Monday and Tuesday could be in for a torrid time by weeks end.
And that is why I also see the fireworks happening next week.

I now notice some posts are saying double tops in various Markets.  I do wonder what I have been saying for the last few weeks.

The big moves are getting closer each day because the Gold Indexes have been winding up for ages.

And the bottom in Gold will be about US $540...when....soon/sometime/just have to wait.


----------



## Boyou

China might hold some promise for those holders of Gold and Gold stocks.

Check this link out

http://www.compareshares.com.au/CFD_reports.php


Cheers Ya'll


----------



## bean

Well US $650 area is the support for Gold...will it give and when. 

US markets appear vunerable all week... but there danger time for biggest falls is thursday and friday this week.

On a technical anaysis point of view they have three big up days coming of wed...thurs...and friday
Where advance/declines and up/down volume was big.


----------



## bean

bean said:


> The thing is Gold Indexes are still close to a stage for a breakout or breakdown because the fall in the Indexes has not been big.  They are winding up like a coil.  So I do know the move when it happens (Gold its self  been US662 and US650 so its winding up as well) will be 'big'




Well got the big move in Gold and Silver...It looks like the Bear is in
US Markets as I said are vunerable all week...The Bear has his foot in the door
The next three days may be in and opening the pantry door.


----------



## Bush Trader

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think for gold to really shine D) a few things need to happen first. The first one is for US interest rates to remain steady or fall. This is probable if the mortgage meltdown gets worse. The second will be a flight to perceived safety, which traditionally will be the $US. After the initial rise in the $US there will be a dramatic reversal as it becomes clearer that it is doomed. In the meantime gold will be under some pressure & even lower. Maybe we are at that stage now?
> Once the $US breaks below 80 gold will have it's day in the sun.
> 
> Some volatile times ahead but they will present a once in a lifetime opportunity to get set in an exploding gold market. Stage 3, the mania phase, is close comrades




This article throws some weight to your discussion Festivus, I hope it is of some interest

Cheers

Bush Trader



> *The Downs And Ups Of Gold In A Crisis
> FN Arena News - June 27 2007
> By Greg Peel*
> 
> Gold is supposed to be the safe haven of safe havens. While the US dollar has largely taken over the role of safe haven of choice in recent years, a falling US dollar has helped push gold up from its lows in the (US$) two hundreds to the six hundreds now. Not a bad run for gold. Global excess liquidity and and a raft of new investment products have aided in this rise.
> But we are supposedly now facing a financial market crisis of at least some degree of magnitude. It may all blow over, but either way the uncertainty created by the US sub-prime mortgage scare should really be enough to send investors running for cover - into something that will prevent the erosion of their wealth. That should, by rights, be gold.
> But that hasn't happened. Indeed, the opposite appears true. When the first US mortgage scare hit in February, gold fell US$40. This seems somewhat counterintuitive. As the second scare begins to engulf us, gold has begun to slip again and is in real danger of breaking down. Why is this so?
> The more recent woes in gold began when US bonds made a sharp jump in yield to above 5% for the first time in a long time. While there are various influences suggested for this jump, including renewed inflation fears and foreign portfolio diversification, none were considered anything other than bearish for gold. Yet if inflation really is rising, then gold is a hedge. And if foreigners are divesting of US dollar assets, then the dollar should fall and thus gold rise.
> Firstly, fears of wholesale foreign diversification have so far proven unfounded. Secondly, a rise in inflation will lead to a hike in the Fed funds rate, which is bullish for the US dollar and such bearish for gold. Thirdly, as bond rates rise the cost of holding gold (which provides no income) becomes greater. What an investor really needs to consider are both the micro and macro scenarios.
> As smaller, short term movements occur within the financial markets gold will react accordingly. It is only when the macro picture becomes influential that gold will begin to act more like "the barbarous relic" that it is often called. This may occur if there a threat of nuclear attack perhaps, or World War III, or oil runs out, or California slips into the sea, or some such significant event. But it might also occur if the threat of financial calamity moves from short term to long term, or code orange to code red, such as if, for example, fiat currencies were under threat of becoming worthless due to the sheer extent of financial market collapse. It may also occur if the threat of global inflation became so great (which is tied into the previous example) that gold "decouples" from the US dollar and no manner of interest rate rise can save the dollar in the end.
> It is for the latter reasons that the world currently contains many (patient) uber-bulls.
> But in the short term the situation is different. When the Chinese stock market plunged, setting off the sub-prime scare and a brief yen carry trade scare as well, it was not a good time to be in gold. That is because the first reaction of the investor who is losing money in another asset class - the stock market for example - is to liquidate whatever he's got to avoid ruin, or at least avoid heavy losses. Or maybe he needs to meet margin calls. The latter can be very much the case in these highly leveraged times.
> Hence gold holdings are dumped. It has long been a mantra that a portion of gold should be held against any stock portfolio as the safety net in a crash. While this is still the case, the fact is that safety net can only be exploited by selling the gold. In the case of the Chinese stock market, so fond of gold are the Chinese that there was no doubt plenty to sell when it looked like the Chinese stock market - full of first time investors - might crash.
> And as we now face another potential wholesale sell-down in equities and other assets, gold is falling once more. It is now teetering at the significant technical support level of US$635-640/oz. The feeling among many a gold observer - bulls included - is that it will break. When it does, US$600/oz is next and that's looking breakable as well.
> The sharp fall in gold overnight was aided by options expiries in the futures market. The silver market copped even more of a pasting for the same reason. The problem is that there were large positions in short put options that had been established on the upswing. If these became "in the money", then the put sellers would need to sell silver futures to cover - quickly. This is not lost on the rest of the market, so the game becomes "who can set off the stops".
> That gold might fall to below US$600/oz has not deterred the longer term bulls. Certainly, if the current financial crisis accelerates then the expectation is that a short sell-off will be replaced by some pretty serious buying. The sort of buying that might see gold testing that magical US$850/oz level sooner rather than later.
> But for now, it's a waiting game. Bottom picking can be dangerous.


----------



## METALMAN

FOMC statement released on Thursday!...Must be NO sign of any inflation because they sure as hell ain’t going to raise the rate.

TIME TO : http://images2.jokaroo.net/flash/elevatordisco.swf


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Well US $650 area is the support for Gold...will it give and when.
> 
> US markets appear vunerable all week... but there danger time for biggest falls is thursday and friday this week.
> 
> On a technical anaysis point of view they have three big up days coming of wed...thurs...and friday
> Where advance/declines and up/down volume was big.




Not fully the week I was expecting.
Got big move in gold down through US$ 650 support however got a countertrend rally which may have finished.

US market 3 days down seems to be max at the moment either be attempted rally on 3 rd day down or rally on 4th down day. 
Explain in first few paragraphs here but read the rest of article re gold
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2007/0623.html

I said "US Markets appear vunerable thursday friday"
Look the Dow finished dow 14 points today  "Wow"
But in actually fact it dropped 200 points from its high during the day but a last minute rally reduced it to just 14 poitnts

China still falling...no one cares...won't effect Australia???
Interesting comments...Hong Kong wonder if they will move down because of China??
If they did wonder who else might...suddenly sentiment in the Asian markets move negative...But of course it won't effect Australia!!!
In fact there is no foreign investment in the stock market in China!!!

Next week 4th July........Fireworks

Gold may have finish it's move higher...getting ready for another big move down.
US Markets they are in a coil 13500 up 13200 down...ready for a big move
S&P500 1490 support...Ths Nasdaq 2570-2575 support (its 50 day moving average)
China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash???

But the DOW has been down 2 days in a row???
So is Monday down Tuesday up? or both down 
All of the above will move in the same direction together??
The are now set up for a move together.


----------



## Boyou

Some more good news on Gold

Cheers Ya'll 

June 28, 2007

Demand For Gold From Industrial Applications Now Looks Set To Rise


Each year a few old greyheads get together to discuss the future for the price of gold and their thoughts, which are worth reading, appear in the annual report of a small Canadian gold producer called Moneta Porcupine Mines. The essence this year is that costs are rising and in these conditions fewer new mines will come on stream and the demand /supply ratio will remain out of kilter. Gold Fields is given as an example. This South African company is one of the biggest producers in the world and it now has to bear cash costs of US$400/oz with non-cash recurring expenses such as amortization on top. Only four years ago Gold Fields was reporting costs below US$300/oz and this upward trend is seen as irreversible.
As the wise men from Moneta point out,  mines with brand new productive capacity can put up with thin profit margins for a while.  Most production, however, comes from old mines and the companies need  funds to maintain current production as well as invest in new sources of production. In addition there is the time element.  Aurelian discovered the Fruta del Norte  deposit in Mexico and  Anglo Ashanti/Independence the Tropicana deposit in Western Australia in the last couple of years but very few other major discoveries have been made. Both of them are still 3 to 4 years from production and if the scarcity of plant and equipment endures it could be longer than that. 

In the meantime production in South Africa continues to fall,  and major producers in North America, Australia and Russia  would be hard pushed to claim that they are churning out more gold.  Latin America  is probably the only bright spot, but mining  by western companies is   subject to hostile  politics in many countries and  the loonies from the NGOs and environmental groups  make start-ups difficult despite the impact on local labour. China is a growing producer, but it cannot make up the difference between supply and demand  and it is this ratio which governs price. Central banks may sell  and scrap may be recovered but the trend in favour of demand is now well established. 

In South Africa both Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti are now planning to mine  4 kms underground at huge expense  as the easier, shallow ore has all been mined out. Now it is a struggle – gold grades from existing mines have been declining, wages are rising as are social costs, equipment prices are soaring, skilled professionals are in short supply, but production and revenues have been falling. South Africa’s mining costs are already the highest in the world and it  is only likely to get worse. The gold industry may have grown rich on the country’s cheap labour but  no more. Only a few weeks ago the National Union of Mineworkers was demanding a 15 per cent wage increase for its members. 

On top of all this there are the  technical challenges of mining at such depth. At 4 kms below ground the  rock temperature  is well over 50 degrees C. Improved air conditioning technology is vital if the workers are going to be able to operate efficiently. Also there are problems with haulage. No cable  can be used  with safety  on lifts over such a distance, so workers  have to use several different shafts to get to their work place and this could mean the journey takes the best part of 2 hours. 2 hours down and 2 hours up  results in them working for only 5 hours  of a nine hour shift. And just think of the electricity costs  off all these lifts as well as the air conditioning equipment. The gold price will have to stay high to make it worth while, and if it doesn’t  the economic future of South Africa will be under threat. 

Lastly there is some really  good news on the demand front.  The World Gold Council has been presenting recent developments in gold catalyst science applications at a major convention in Houston. More than 1,000 scientists have been meeting to discuss original research and advancements in the broad use of catalysts in the petroleum, chemical, pharmaceutical, energy and environmental industries. Gold ranks among the most high-tech of metals, performing a vital role in many cutting-edge technologies that are helping improve areas of everyday life. Its unique physical and chemical properties mean it is the only material that can be used for certain industrial and medical applications. 

According to  Richard Holliday, head of Industrial Applications at the WGC, there were more than 30 talks on gold as it is the current hot topic. “In chemical processing, pollution control and fuel cell catalysis there is great interest in exploiting the unique properties of gold. Even in the automotive industry, where gold was once considered too unstable to be used, we are seeing progress in commercialisation with Nanostellar's recent announcement of a gold-containing diesel oxidation catalyst,” he said. Already used in a handful of applications, further industrial trials are currently underway in which ‘nano’ gold is being used as a catalyst.  These trials include the control of mercury emissions from power stations, efforts to improve the long term durability of fuel cells and plans to create more effective gas masks to ensure safety of workers in emergency situations. 

There are plenty of  other potential  applications in fine chemical production, water treatment and control of atmospheric pollution  which show gold to be an important ‘green’ metal that plays an ever increasing essential role in everyday lives. Together these amount to  a major step-forward in the potential use of gold in emission and pollution control. For a long time gold has suffered in comparison with platinum and silver as there is less demand from industrial applications. This  period may now be drawing to a close. Always remember that is  the demand supply ratio that governs price and the reason for being bullish about gold becomes obvious.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Not fully the week I was expecting.
> Got big move in gold down through US$ 650 support however got a countertrend rally which may have finished.
> 
> US market 3 days down seems to be max at the moment either be attempted rally on 3 rd day down or rally on 4th down day.
> Explain in first few paragraphs here but read the rest of article re gold
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2007/0623.html
> 
> I said "US Markets appear vunerable thursday friday"
> Look the Dow finished dow 14 points today  "Wow"
> But in actually fact it dropped 200 points from its high during the day but a last minute rally reduced it to just 14 poitnts
> 
> China still falling...no one cares...won't effect Australia???
> Interesting comments...Hong Kong wonder if they will move down because of China??
> If they did wonder who else might...suddenly sentiment in the Asian markets move negative...But of course it won't effect Australia!!!
> In fact there is no foreign investment in the stock market in China!!!
> 
> Next week 4th July........Fireworks
> 
> Gold may have finish it's move higher...getting ready for another big move down.
> US Markets they are in a coil 13500 up 13200 down...ready for a big move
> S&P500 1490 support...Ths Nasdaq 2570-2575 support (its 50 day moving average)
> China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash???
> 
> But the DOW has been down 2 days in a row???
> So is Monday down Tuesday up? or both down
> All of the above will move in the same direction together??
> The are now set up for a move together.



So, Bean, can you please succinctly state in a few pithy well constructed sentances exactly what you had predicted here, and whether it came to fruition or not? 

Or, did you actually predict that anything could and will happen.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It's easy Kennas. Because the US markets are closed tonight  I see them possibly going sideways for the next day or so, but then could go up, maybe down after that. This will be opposite to gold, which hasn't broken to the upside due to the price going down in sympathy when the DOW hasn't gone up.
If the DOW does go up for 2 days in a row then it will be setting up for gold to follow, but only if it too goes up, so we will then have a confirmed sideways movement with a $100 range. Should the Nasdaq also go up for 3 days to new highs then China will exert some influence to forcefully crash gold to a new low. Maybe.
Who cares, I'm 100% Polish Zloty's now


----------



## Bush Trader

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's easy Kennas. Because the US markets are closed tonight  I see them possibly going sideways for the next day or so, but then could go up, maybe down after that. This will be opposite to gold, which hasn't broken to the upside due to the price going down in sympathy when the DOW hasn't gone up.
> If the DOW does go up for 2 days in a row then it will be setting up for gold to follow, but only if it too goes up, so we will then have a confirmed sideways movement with a $100 range. Should the Nasdaq also go up for 3 days to new highs then China will exert some influence to forcefully crash gold to a new low. Maybe.
> Who cares, I'm 100% Polish Zloty's now




I remember when this used to be a good thread, I suggest we get it back to that and delete the c##p posts from "UNOWHO" (me think, would make a good pollie, says it all yet nothing).  Then Festivus will be able to cut out his facetious behaviour and focus on some analysis.

Cheers


BT


----------



## bean

Bush Trader said:


> I remember when this used to be a good thread, I suggest we get it back to that and delete the c##p posts from "UNOWHO" (me think, would make a good pollie, says it all yet nothing).  Then Festivus will be able to cut out his facetious behaviour and focus on some analysis.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> BT



Oh and here I was going to say Gold up tonight
and gold down next week.
But remember I am trying to line the US markets and Gold falling together.
The movment in Gold and Gold Indexes to there bottom will be in line with the markets.
I am sorry Bulls that you don't like the posts but Gold is in a downtrend and the time for this correction finishing really depends when the markets finally roll over for good.
You now have a divergenge in the US with the DOW and Nasdaq


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> Oh and here I was going to say Gold up tonight
> and gold down next week.
> But remember I am trying to line the US markets and Gold falling together.
> The movment in Gold and Gold Indexes to there bottom will be in line with the markets.
> I am sorry Bulls that you don't like the posts but Gold is in a downtrend and the time for this correction finishing really depends when the markets finally roll over for good.
> You now have a divergenge in the US with the DOW and Nasdaq




Bean,

As I say belive in your own bull Sh.i.t but dont get high off it.

You make guesses based on a unproven theory.

Markets move as one in times and in oppersite directions in other times beliving the Gold Index and US indexes more together is a dangerous asumbtion as if you veiw there charts they are not moving in the same dicrection.

Gold is in a short term down trend and the US indexes are moving in a band yet to be proven bullish or bearish. Due to the current bull market traders would lean to the bullish side for now.

I have followed you from the beginning, you have had a couple lucky calls but there is no substance or depth to your argument.

you have chopped and changed and then gone back to bearish once a possible short term top was evident which takes no skill at all.

Gold is in a bull market a very long one bull markets correct its the normal order of things. So please show evidence that we are heading to a bear market. I know you will keep crowing for the next year or how ever long it takes till the market turns to bear and then you will be scearming i told you so.  Well you didn't as I could do the same thing and one day become right. 

Please show some charts or demonstrate with clarity why we are heading to a market reversal on indexes and in Gold?

Please don't be one of the 1000's of top calling wanna be's  

Good trading


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Oh and here I was going to say Gold up tonight
> and gold down next week.
> But remember I am trying to line the US markets and Gold falling together.
> The movment in Gold and Gold Indexes to there bottom will be in line with the markets.
> I am sorry Bulls that you don't like the posts but Gold is in a downtrend and the time for this correction finishing really depends when the markets finally roll over for good.
> You now have a divergenge in the US with the DOW and Nasdaq



You haven ´t answered my questions from last week Bean when you said the US was going to implode, or something, and then something else was going to happen, like gold and gold stocks go down. Or, if that didn't happen they were going to go up, or we had to wait??  What the hell are you on about? You are the only one that knows. Doesn't that seem somewhat obvious to you now? 

Can I summarise all you have said by: If the market goes down, gold and gold stocks will go down, and vicie versa? Brilliant.

I second BT's comments.


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> You haven ´t answered my questions from last week Bean when you said the US was going to implode, or something, and then something else was going to happen, like gold and gold stocks go down. Or, if that didn't happen they were going to go up, or we had to wait??  What the hell are you on about? You are the only one that knows. Doesn't that seem somewhat obvious to you now?
> 
> Can I summarise all you have said by: If the market goes down, gold and gold stocks will go down, and vicie versa? Brilliant.
> 
> I second BT's comments.




Gold  I said ‘MAY’ have finished 

That was where the.. if.. factor was in the markets.  Gold moved a few $ higher so the markets moved up as well   If gold had of finished the markets (Dow) would have moved down.
Then I said Gold would move down again which its started to!!

“All of the above will move in the same direction together??
The are now set up for a move together.”

They moved in the same direction.  And I am getting them allinging together.

I have one of the US gold Indexes up for 6 days straight may give a buy signal soon.  Or is it ready to signal the end of this move.

“As I believe Gold is going to US$515 – US$540.
For it to get there the logical reason is for the markets (world) to be in a severe correction. (crash).
And golds move and that of the Gold stocks will be because of the above. and both moving in the same direction initially”

Gold over the last number of months has been about the only thing that has not been rising.

US 10 year bonds the yield moved down last week as gold little counter rally started. 
The yield is such that (today 5.14) there is a strong possibility that could shoot up next week (above 5.25 ? )

What yield would affect the markets??  And Gold.??
“There is a question”

You want me to post charts etc.  I don’t do charts.  I look at them.
Some of the links I gave had charts and well if you did read them you may have saw this last rally in gold.  As for the DOW I am sure if you look at any chart you will see a rounding or broadening top.


As for China well I suppose you will say everyone knew
China still falling...no one cares
China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash??

Well composite has only in last 12 days (not including today)
Fallen from 4270 to 3615  only about 15%
And of those 12 days 5 were up.  And well it has been picking up speed.
I also mentioned about sentiment turning if China keep falling..

Today I mentioned about China rising in another chat.

I am a Gold Bull...I hold physical silver...I am bearish on Gold at the moment...
Am I right since I have said Gold as it was near US$700 was not going past and was going to drop...I am 100% correct...I  am saying Gold is going to US$515-US$540...*Those who are bullish show me I am wrong* prove to me in every rise gold is going higher...so I can change my mind otherwise I will be posting bearish comments with the ocassionally bullishness for counter rallies....Everytime you put a bullish thing up I say it will fall and who is winning so far...My only fault is timing and also and this is the most important thing is that the main fall to the price I have said will be brought about by falls in the US and World markets.

How close is it??? You can see by the movement in Gold it could be anytime.
Because Gold sure is not going higher towards US$700 at the moment.
It needs something...
I am bullish Gold!!! and more so Silver but I expect Silver to drop to US$9.50-US$10.50...when is the $64 question...soon?


----------



## SGB

bean said:


> Gold  I said ‘MAY’ have finished
> 
> That was where the.. if.. factor was in the markets.  Gold moved a few $ higher so the markets moved up as well   If gold had of finished the markets (Dow) would have moved down.
> Then I said Gold would move down again which its started to!!
> 
> “All of the above will move in the same direction together??
> The are now set up for a move together.”
> 
> They moved in the same direction.  And I am getting them allinging together.
> 
> I have one of the US gold Indexes up for 6 days straight may give a buy signal soon.  Or is it ready to signal the end of this move.
> 
> “As I believe Gold is going to US$515 – US$540.
> For it to get there the logical reason is for the markets (world) to be in a severe correction. (crash).
> And golds move and that of the Gold stocks will be because of the above. and both moving in the same direction initially”
> 
> Gold over the last number of months has been about the only thing that has not been rising.
> 
> US 10 year bonds the yield moved down last week as gold little counter rally started.
> The yield is such that (today 5.14) there is a strong possibility that could shoot up next week (above 5.25 ? )
> 
> What yield would affect the markets??  And Gold.??
> “There is a question”
> 
> You want me to post charts etc.  I don’t do charts.  I look at them.
> Some of the links I gave had charts and well if you did read them you may have saw this last rally in gold.  As for the DOW I am sure if you look at any chart you will see a rounding or broadening top.
> 
> 
> As for China well I suppose you will say everyone knew
> China still falling...no one cares
> China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash??
> 
> Well composite has only in last 12 days (not including today)
> Fallen from 4270 to 3615  only about 15%
> And of those 12 days 5 were up.  And well it has been picking up speed.
> I also mentioned about sentiment turning if China keep falling..
> 
> Today I mentioned about China rising in another chat.
> 
> I am a Gold Bull...I hold physical silver...I am bearish on Gold at the moment...
> Am I right since I have said Gold as it was near US$700 was not going past and was going to drop...I am 100% correct...I  am saying Gold is going to US$515-US$540...*Those who are bullish show me I am wrong* prove to me in every rise gold is going higher...so I can change my mind otherwise I will be posting bearish comments with the ocassionally bullishness for counter rallies....Everytime you put a bullish thing up I say it will fall and who is winning so far...My only fault is timing and also and this is the most important thing is that the main fall to the price I have said will be brought about by falls in the US and World markets.
> 
> How close is it??? You can see by the movement in Gold it could be anytime.
> Because Gold sure is not going higher towards US$700 at the moment.
> It needs something...
> I am bullish Gold!!! and more so Silver but I expect Silver to drop to US$9.50-US$10.50...when is the $64 question...soon?




Hello Bean
First of all let me thank you for finally giving all of us a clear, concise interpretation on your rational thoughts. I don't know whether i had missed it before, but it did take me a couple of months of careful analysis to try and work out what direction you had drafted. I finally know now and this i thank you. 
Cheers

SGB


----------



## boiler

NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - In a move seen as bullish for the price of gold, Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it eliminated its entire 1.85 million-ounce gold hedge position.

The Denver-based gold company, the world's second biggest producer after Canada's Barrick Gold Co. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) (ABX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), also said it is mulling a possible sale or public offering of its merchant banking business.

The hedging announcement, which analysts viewed as a positive sign for the price of gold, sent the company's shares up 2.3 percent in after-hours trading.

One analyst also saw the action by Newmont's new chief executive Richard O'Brien as a way to boost Newmont's stock price, which has disappointed investors at a time when gold has soared.

Bill O'Neill, an analyst at LOGIC Advisors, said Newmont's decision to eliminate hedging was crucial to the gold market.

"Obviously if there's less hedge pressure in the market, it does indicate a level of confidence and perhaps an indication that maybe the market is at the bottom end of its trading range.

"It's something of a vote of confidence. It's an indication that they do feel that the downside from here is probably fairly minimal," said O'Neill.

Gold reached a 26-year high of $730 per ounce in May 2006, but has slipped somewhat since then. On Thursday, it dropped 1.3 percent to around $645.70 an ounce.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Market                                watchers have said that Newmont's decision to                                eliminate hedging was "crucial" to the gold                                market, and a real "vote of confidence" for the                                outlook for the gold market. Recently, Macquarie                                Research Equities (MRE) increased their gold price                                target to $720/oz in 2008, some 10% upside to                                where gold is at present. Of the top Aussie gold                                producers, MRE have a clear preference for Lihir                                Gold (LGL). In fact, On MRE’s numbers, a 10%                                increase in the gold price will result in a 19%                                earnings upside for LGL due to its unhedged gold                                book.


----------



## chicken

Check Kitco and you will see ALL the graphs in the GOLD futures have turned POSITVE...UP....so check it as the market may be in for a GOLD rally....


----------



## wayneL

chicken said:


> Check Kitco and you will see ALL the graphs in the GOLD futures have turned POSITVE...UP....so check it as the market may be in for a GOLD rally....



Rally is possible of course, but a bit of work to do yet.

What I would like to see is the gold chart in AUD. Anyone have one?


----------



## GreatPig

Only that GOLD stock on the ASX, which is essentially the same as the Goldcorp warrant.

Seems to be sitting right back on the base support line from early 2006.

GP


----------



## bean

wayneL said:


> Rally is possible of course, but a bit of work to do yet.




Gold price back up to to channel on your chart.  Needs to break US$622 and US$666.
Plus and minus
One of the Gold Index I follow has finished 8 days up 
The others I use are ready to give signals (buy)
The DOW nearly new record close 
China composite nearly 3900 (resistance 3900-3920) - next (4000-4030)

Gold Indexes due for a pullback?  
The signal will mark the top of move ?
US$662-666 resistance?
The DOW and US markets I have extreme reading on the plus side (they are strong) but it is overbought (not extreme but generally) may cap advance??
Does it sell for a few days?
China if it fails then back down and soon may have a test of 3600 if that fails it downward pressure would really pick up.
Overnight bond yields dropped they have to rise this week otherwise I will get a reversal and yields will start dropping and bond yoelds was one of the things I was looking for in bringing markets and Gold down.


----------



## wayneL

GreatPig said:


> Only that GOLD stock on the ASX, which is essentially the same as the Goldcorp warrant.
> 
> Seems to be sitting right back on the base support line from early 2006.
> 
> GP



Thanks GP,

It doesn't look as bad as I thought it would (bearing in mind the rocket up the AUD's @rse)



bean said:


> Gold price back up to to channel on your chart.  Needs to break US$622 and US$666.
> Plus and minus
> One of the Gold Index I follow has finished 8 days up
> The others I use are ready to give signals (buy)
> The DOW nearly new record close
> China composite nearly 3900 (resistance 3900-3920) - next (4000-4030)
> 
> Gold Indexes due for a pullback?
> The signal will mark the top of move ?
> US$662-666 resistance?
> The DOW and US markets I have extreme reading on the plus side (they are strong) but it is overbought (not extreme but generally) may cap advance??
> Does it sell for a few days?
> China if it fails then back down and soon may have a test of 3600 if that fails it downward pressure would really pick up.
> Overnight bond yields dropped they have to rise this week otherwise I will get a reversal and yields will start dropping and bond yoelds was one of the things I was looking for in bringing markets and Gold down.



The US goldies I follow have put in a strong pre-emptive run, but I'm skeptical of any robust rally from here, but fully aware this could just be a cognitive bias.

The channel offered up a couple of obvious trades, but standing aside for now. 

Re bond yields: Treasuries will need to make a new low to make the equity players sit up and take notice again. But for now, bouncing at minor technical support.


----------



## boiler

Gold, Oil, Currencies & Interest Rates
By Colin Twiggs
July 10, 2007 3:00 a.m. EST (5:00 p.m. AEST) 

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use. 

Gold 
Spot gold broke through the upper border of the trend channel, completing a small inverted head and shoulders reversal. A rally to test resistance at $695 is now likely, while reversal below $645 would signal a test of primary support above $630. The weak dollar and rising crude prices should boost demand for gold.


----------



## Bush Trader

This put quite a different spin on things for all those Gold Bulls

Cheers


BT

Gold Strength A US Dollar Phenomenon Only
Source: FN Arena News - July 10 2007 
By Greg Peel

"This chart is disconcertingly bearish for the US dollar, for thus far the gold bull market has been denominated only in US dollar terms," notes Dennis Gartman, of The Gartman Letter fame. "Gold in euro terms looks horrid...indeed quite bearish." And it can't be looking too good in Aussie dollar terms either.

Gartman counts himself among gold's bulls, but as a short term trader he has no specific long position at present. He makes the point however, that if gold is to be truly considered in a bull trend then it should be trending so against all currencies - not just the US dollar. This gold/euro chart implies that gold has broken a long term trend in euro terms as the euro has reached historical highs against the US dollar. The flipside is that gold in US dollar terms is only strong because the US dollar is weak, not because gold is fundamentally strong.

Which tends to tie in the views of the gold uber-bulls, who are generally backing the barbarous relic on the back of the inevitable collapse of the US dollar. Mind you, the real doomsayers see the collapse of all fiat currency (which is all of them).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bush Trader said:


> Which tends to tie in the views of the gold uber-bulls, who are generally backing the barbarous relic on the back of the inevitable collapse of the US dollar. Mind you, the real doomsayers see the collapse of all fiat currency (which is all of them).




The term 'barbarous relic' was referring to the gold standard rather than gold itself.

I think the underlying force to determine wether gold is 'valued' correctly against each currency is to determine which country has been inflating their money supply more, relative to each other. It appears that at the moment the US is top of the monetary inflation stack and relative to the Euro is overvalued (still?).

The same financial structural problems also exist in all countries based on a fiat system, in some relative proportion, so there is every possibility that it will be a 'race to the bottom' of the currency depreciation race (witness Japans active currency manipulation & subsequent carry trade), in order for each country to remain globally competitive aginst the likes of China & now North Korea.

It's a case of he who inflates their money suply the least, gold will look the least attractive. Even the $A will have a blow-off top once the system re adjusts to weakening global demand due to an (peak?) oil induced global slowing (happening now, watch petrol prices), so gold in $A will resume it's march past $1000, it just may take time.


----------



## Bush Trader

Thanks for your insights Uncle Festivus


----------



## Kimosabi

The gold price is massively manipulated by the central banks, because they along with a few others know that Gold is still "Real Money".

Why do you think the World's reserve Banks have most of the Worlds Gold.

The sooner fiat money disappears and is replaced by "Sound Money" the better.

We would all be so much better off...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kimosabi said:


> The gold price is massively manipulated by the central banks, because they along with a few others know that Gold is still "Real Money".
> 
> Why do you think the World's reserve Banks have most of the Worlds Gold.
> 
> The sooner fiat money disappears and is replaced by "Sound Money" the better.
> 
> We would all be so much better off...




The problem for them (the CB's) is that nobody really knows how much ammo they have left to keep a lid on the POG, in the face of sure & steady accumulation by arab oil, ultra rich elites, skeptical (of governments) Indians & Chinese etc,. If it someday turns out that the cupboard is bare, ie the vaults are depleted, then all hell will break loose because it will confirm that fiat money is worthless.

Actually, a properly administered fiat system is preferable to a straight out gold one for obvious reasons eg gold is cumbersome as an everyday currency. It's just that the temptation to print money is too great, ever since 1971. The accumulated and as yet not purged excesses for all these years will one day have a reckoning, who knows when, but it will be a doozy.


----------



## GreatPig

Is this ominous or what...?


----------



## CanOz

LOL! GP, it depends on whether or not you're superstitious. If you're not then its nothing more than two number regarded by some as being a "bad omen" coincidentally falling in line with each other....

The Chinese regard 4 as the unlucky number, 13 is just another number...

665-666 has been support and resistane for GOLD for a while now, if it clears this its significant.

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> © DUKASCOPY
> 
> 
> Detach  Options
> Powered by Dukascopy  ®
> Options ::           X
> XAU/USD
> 10 - sec 1 - min 10 - min 1 - hour 1 - day 1 - week
> 10 units 20 units 30 units 40 units 50 units 60 units 70 units 80 units 90 units 100 units 200 units 300 units 400 units 500 units
> bar candle line p&f
> Volume MACD RSI Stochastic SlowStochastic Momentum UOS CCI Simple ADX MA
> oscvaluesRfi


----------



## explod

Sorry, but attempted to post a chart of the gold price, weekly from mid 2001 to present from Bigcharts.   Followed Joe's instructions as best I could and that last post was the result.


My post was in answer to one put up by Bush Trader (11/07) indicating that the Gold Price had entered a down trend.   A look at the Weekly back a little further indicates that the gold bull-run is still firmly in place.

A number of commentators have attempted to distort the situation with this shorter view,  and I just wanted to counter same.   I obviously need my Grandson to give me another lesson.

regards explod


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Sorry, but attempted to post a chart of the gold price, weekly from mid 2001 to present from Bigcharts.   Followed Joe's instructions as best I could and that last post was the result.
> 
> 
> My post was in answer to one put up by Bush Trader (11/07) indicating that the Gold Price had entered a down trend.   A look at the Weekly back a little further indicates that the gold bull-run is still firmly in place.
> 
> A number of commentators have attempted to distort the situation with this shorter view,  and I just wanted to counter same.   I obviously need my Grandson to give me another lesson.
> 
> regards explod




Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.

I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700.


----------



## explod

"Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.

I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700"


On the contrary, (Looking at the chart) from 0ct 01, to Sept 05 the ascent is gradual, it then picks up pace till the present.   A very bullish chart

I too stand on the sidelines (in gold stocks)at this stage as some shakeout would appear to continue on current rhetoric.      However I base my overall strategies on the firmer long term trends.   Weaker US dollor, higher world wide interest rates, growing shortage of oil = stronger gold price.    In Australia....wont' appear to happen till after the election.  Our rising dollar will insulate for awhile also.

JMHO,    but wish I could post a chart


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> ......but wish I could post a chart



 Explod, it's really not that hard, you won't need the expertise of your grand daughter. 

How to post a chart


----------



## wavepicker

Trade_It said:


> Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.
> 
> I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700




I am with you Trade It. I have been on the sidelines with regard to this for 10months now, after initially going short and then long in May last year. 

The secular trend on this is still up IMO. In fact long time cycles say this secular trend does not finish till approximately 2018!!!!!  But as mentioned in a post made last year at the peak , the 8.5 Year cycle in Gold is due to bottom till 2008/9(but this does not imply that price will also bottom at the same time-in fact price may have already bottomed), therefore Gold /Silver might be caught in sluggish/choppy range till it's ready to convincingly break out. At the moment there is nothing to convince otherwise 

Cheres


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> "Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.
> 
> I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700"
> 
> 
> On the contrary, (Looking at the chart) from 0ct 01, to Sept 05 the ascent is gradual, it then picks up pace till the present.   A very bullish chart
> 
> I too stand on the sidelines (in gold stocks)at this stage as some shakeout would appear to continue on current rhetoric.      However I base my overall strategies on the firmer long term trends.   Weaker US dollor, higher world wide interest rates, growing shortage of oil = stronger gold price.    In Australia....wont' appear to happen till after the election.  Our rising dollar will insulate for awhile also.
> 
> JMHO,    but wish I could post a chart




sep 05 is a long time ago we have had so many new dynamices to the market since then how can u base current price situation on sep 05?

Gold weekly

I revise my earlier post there is still alot of minor downward pressure on gold at the moment but we have support underneath blue line failed ascending triangle break out. What wavepicker posted makes a lot of sense in what I see minor up and down angles and one major from our previous high. I agree looks like it will band in a range of high 640's to high 680's. Still need to see mayor down resistance broken, then a break of 690 to commit a long.

See chart


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> On the contrary, (Looking at the chart) from 0ct 01, to Sept 05 the ascent is gradual, it then picks up pace till the present. A very bullish chart




Explod  i take back my comment to you, i did not fully take in what you said please disregard the following remark of mine:



> sep 05 is a long time ago we have had so many new dynamices to the market since then how can u base current price situation on sep 05?




Yes the chart in bullish no doubt about that but are all the time frames bullish? Long term yes medium term i say not short term i say not.


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> Explod  i take back my comment to you, i did not fully take in what you said please disregard the following remark of mine:
> 
> 
> 
> Yes the chart in bullish no doubt about that but are all the time frames bullish? Long term yes medium term i say not short term i say not.




The dynamics, if we include fundamentals (and I do go by both) since 05 have in fact improved for gold.  They are in my view, weaker US dollar (huge debt and growing) rising oil prices.  And the ever parachuting (remember Allan Bond) dirivative/currency trade (if that's the right term) that is about to implode on an astronomic scale. 

I wite this as the US dollar is about to go through an all time low (which begins at 1971) and gold is making a strong up move from a long peiod of consoildation and shakeout.

Hold your hats, and your physical bullion for the ride of your life is about to begin


----------



## Sean K

Gold up and markets down. 

Bean, is that part of the plan? Perhaps this is just a one off.


----------



## explod

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gold rallied after the dollar weakened when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke highlighted the dangers of the sub-prime fallout to the US economy in his semi-annual testimony to Congress.

Gold tends to move counter to the dollar, as it is seen as an alternative asset to the world's most common currency reserve.

'The dollar is weaker and that is the main driver for gold right now,' said Calyon analyst, Michael Widmer. 'Now it's slipped below 1.38 versus the euro, everything seems to be pointing to the problems in the housing market and the potential for lower (US) interest rates weakening the dollar further.'

At 4.45 pm, spot gold was trading at 672.90 usd an ounce, compared with 665.00 usd in late New York trade yesterday.

Some analysts believe gold is asserting its position as a wealth guarantor in times of market volatility, following Bear Stearn's announcement that two of their stressed hedge funds are now essentially worthless after investing heavily in the US sub-prime market.

'Gold hasn't just risen because of the dollar, it's risen against sterling as well,' said BullionVault.com analyst Adrian Ash. 'A lot of people are concerned about Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ), and the level of fear you're seeing in the market is bringing people back to gold.'

Gold is further supported by oil prices trading close to all time record highs. Prices have received a further boost from falling US inventories today.

Bullion often rises in line with oil as it is used as an inflationary hedge against higher fuel costs.

The lack of buying by jewellers, turned off by high prices in the historically quiet summer period, has limited some of gold's gains.

Among other precious metals, platinum is up to 1,318 usd against 1,308 usd after reports that South African mine workers rejected a pay offer from Northam Platinum, increasing the likelihood of strike action. 

Its sister metal palladium fell to 365 usd against 366 usd. 

Silver was up to 13.17 usd against 12.93 usd.


d.sheppard@thomson.com


----------



## >Apocalypto<

kennas said:


> Gold up and markets down.
> 
> Bean, is that part of the plan? Perhaps this is just a one off.




Ha Ha Ha

Nice one Kennas, that would have scrambled him!


----------



## bean

Strange why I have not posted comments on Gold since last week and that comment was not to bearish on Gold. In fact I was also asking for bullish comments
Gold has risen.  I have rebought Gold and silver stocks last week.  I am 100% in Gold and silver stocks
I have 50% in CTO 30% in MMN and 20% in TAM.

I also mention the US markets being oversold needed a pullback as that would cap any advance. They had a good down day and then broke out to new highs.
China still at the 3900-3920 resistance and as I said if it get through it next was about 4030.

Gold up DOW down today...Maybe the Gold Indexes were playing catchup
DOW 3 Jan 12475  today 13918  so 11.5% increase for the year
US Gold Indexs 3rd Jan 136.95 and 324 today 154.41 and 365.1 a 12% increase

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1184857200.phphttp://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1184857200.php

Now I am not that bullish or am I?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Warning - thinking out loud here, could be garbage 

Tentatively going bullish here based on gold shares taking the lead over spot gold. Interesting symmetry between XAU & physical, which usually indicates a solid trend formation in the early stages, and particlarly from this point has the potential to break the previous high of $730, after the long consolidation period since Jan/March 07?

The proviso is that any correction in the general market will not be too extreme. If the general market corrects and gold and gold shares keep appreciating then it will be game on for gold again, as the 'smart money' has exited normal stocks and battened down the hatches with gold stocks & bullion as protection from the $US going over the waterfall?


----------



## Morgan

Uncle- hope this is not a silly question:

If we are assumming that gold price will strengthen due to devaluing of the $US dollar, how are you factoring in the strengthening of the $AUS against the $US (bearing in mind that gold price is set in $US).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Morgan said:


> Uncle- hope this is not a silly question:
> 
> If we are assumming that gold price will strengthen due to devaluing of the $US dollar, how are you factoring in the strengthening of the $AUS against the $US (bearing in mind that gold price is set in $US).




Hi Morgan,
A good question actually. Short answer is you could hedge eg buy $AU/$USD. I'm no expert but obviously it basically relies on the US gold price appreciating faster than the $AU, which hasn't for a while now. But the odd thing is that the AUS market for some reason seems to follow the US gold price for day to day action. You can see on the chart how the currency has capped the gold price in $AU, yet the XDG index is still up overall.

Maybe the $AU is fully priced at these levels, who knows? There has been a few miners that have announced earnings downgrades due to the $AU appreciation so maybe if international investors start to lighten up on resource stocks they will start selling the $AU? I'm not sure if the experts can even agree on what the $AU will do next - parity maybe?
Interesting period ahead for sure.


----------



## explod

The previous peak in gold occurred back about 1980 at $900 US per oz.  This was the end of that bull run in gold that began about 10 years earlier from a base of about US$35 oz.     

The current bull run up for gold began from a double bottom formed between about 1999 and 2001 at about US$270 an ounce.   A number of commentators have argued for some time that the world financial dynamics this time around indicate a much greater fall than the 80s, with some saying that some parts of the world, particularly the US, due to its massive public and private debt, will be hit harder than the 1929 into the 30s crash.

So if things are going to pan out this way, and it's looking more likely every day of late, then that jump in gold from $35 to $900, a ratio of about 25 to   1, would indicate that gold could at least run up to to US$6,750 an ounce.   However if the US dollar becomes worthless as did some currencies during the great depression then a gold price in that region would be no big deal.  

I am not an economist but can only follow the advice of others, who I think,  know what they are talking about.   However if things get that bad in the US I cannot help but also believe that we in Australia will not come out unscathed.  So as insurance I am into physical bullion, some gold stocks, but ever ready to pull out for that fall.   When it has happened big time in the past, some of the falls decimated portfolios.     

In fact I see the current market a bit like Telstra 2, if you look back on the charts, you can see where the smart money got out, and many, including myself, got caught big time.   A lesson well learned though.

Just my two Bob's worth on a Thursday.  Would be good to hear from an economist from earlier times.


----------



## BREND

Morgan said:


> Uncle- hope this is not a silly question:
> 
> If we are assumming that gold price will strengthen due to devaluing of the $US dollar, how are you factoring in the strengthening of the $AUS against the $US (bearing in mind that gold price is set in $US).




You are rite! I have the same problem too as a Singaporean, earning my salary in SGD.

So I choose to buy Gold futures. 

A small head and shoulders formation is formed, indicating that gold price is likely to move up higher. Place a working order to buy 1 lot of Comex Copper Aug07 at $672.

Gold chart: 
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/07/bullish-on-gold.html


----------



## CanOz

BREND said:


> So I choose to buy Gold futures.
> 
> A small head and shoulders formation is formed, indicating that gold price is likely to move up higher. Place a working order to buy 1 lot of Comex Copper Aug07 at $672.
> 
> Gold chart:
> http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/07/bullish-on-gold.html




What the?


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> What the?



Copper is in a bubble...


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Copper is in a bubble...




Gotta be a good short from here

I'd like to take the other side of your copper trade BREND.


----------



## BREND

professor_frink said:


> Gotta be a good short from here
> 
> I'd like to take the other side of your copper trade BREND.




Ops! Typo error, I mean Comex Gold, not Copper. 
I'll only buy if copper breaks $8000 effectively today. 

Prof Frink, u trade futures or copper stocks? If you are trading futures, how long have u been trading? Just curious...


----------



## professor_frink

BREND said:


> Ops! Typo error, I mean Comex Gold, not Copper.
> I'll only buy if copper breaks $8000 effectively today.
> 
> Prof Frink, u trade futures or copper stocks? If you are trading futures, how long have u been trading? Just curious...




I don't mind a punt or two on futures. been trading futures for about a year.


----------



## BREND

professor_frink said:


> I don't mind a punt or two on futures. been trading futures for about a year.




Mainly precious metals or any futures product that make money?


----------



## professor_frink

BREND said:


> Mainly precious metals or any futures product that make money?




mainly daytrade the HSI, but have been getting stuck into crude at night recently. 

back on topic, it doesn't look like you'll get your trade on gold filled tonight. You going to leave the order at that level or go chasing?


----------



## Parag0n

30 minutes on NYM... gold making a move.. up $5 so far chart looks nice.


----------



## Bluesky

Yeah, ive been watching this as well.
Last half hour really started moving upwards so things are looking very good. Only the start imo. Should start flying soon.


----------



## BREND

professor_frink said:


> mainly daytrade the HSI, but have been getting stuck into crude at night recently.
> 
> back on topic, it doesn't look like you'll get your trade on gold filled tonight. You going to leave the order at that level or go chasing?




I had raised my limit price to 674, and it was filled.


----------



## wayneL

BREND said:


> I had raised my limit price to 674, and it was filled.



Hindsite trade.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I have a order in at 697 on spot gold. I dont think much of this rally. have been watching this market for quite a while now have seen it rally and fail on a number off times at 690 -700 so lets see if this is different.


----------



## Sean K

Trade_It said:


> I have a order in at 697 on spot gold. I dont think much of this rally. have been watching this market for quite a while now have seen it rally and fail on a number off times at 690 -700 so lets see if this is different.



Yep, I agree. I haven't got too many hopes up, and I'll be relatively quick to take profits on my recent gold stock buys on margin. Maving said that, breaking 695 ish and I'll change my mind and probably put Joe's house on gold.


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Yep, I agree. I haven't got too many hopes up, and I'll be relatively quick to take profits on my recent gold stock buys on margin. Maving said that, breaking 695 ish and I'll change my mind and probably put Joe's house on gold.



At the moment that appears to be the action the Aussie gold stocks are taking...buyers are not coming in yet in strength...Are they waiting to see if Gold takes out US695...US gold Indexes have moved up over 10% in last week or so...However the interesting thing with the advance in Gold this time is both the Gold Price and US Gold indexes moved from the low together...So both are confirming the advance at the moment.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> At the moment that appears to be the action the Aussie gold stocks are taking...buyers are not coming in yet in strength...Are they waiting to see if Gold takes out US695...US gold Indexes have moved up over 10% in last week or so...However the interesting thing with the advance in Gold this time is both the Gold Price and US Gold indexes moved from the low together...So both are confirming the advance at the moment.




well sino gold is going up in leaps and bounds so that's not exactly right.

SGX  	623 		+19	+3.2%

 S&P/ASX ALL ORDINARIES GOLD (SUB INDUSTRY)  	XGD  	5,138 	 	44.5 	 +0.9%


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> well sino gold is going up in leaps and bounds so that's not exactly right.
> 
> SGX  	623 		+19	+3.2%
> 
> S&P/ASX ALL ORDINARIES GOLD (SUB INDUSTRY)  	XGD  	5,138 	 	44.5 	 +0.9%





Sino Gold is a standout at the moment as it is coming into production, and the ore is of good grade and the mine being in China is not dollar effected as in Auz.

Our market usually takes longer to catch on.  One of the indicators of gold moves that I follow is the HUI Index, which in the last few days has broken resistance and if this continues is poised to pass it's all time high set back in may last year when Gold peaked at a 20 odd year high.   

On that basis I see the current move as taking out  the US$725 gold price in the nearer term.   A dollar break below USDX 80.00 will  do it.  It hit a new low of 80.23 on Wednesday and sits currently at 80.48.    Any further rise in oil, almost at a new high, will fuel both respectively


----------



## bean

As I said the gold stocks need volume 

XGD average daily volume since 22 feb 50,393,515
Since the 4 th July (when movemnet sort of started in US Gold Indexes and Price of Gold )  average daily volume has only been 45,662,741

SINO
For the same period average daily volume was 886,384 since the 4th July (when they made an announcement) 938,326

As I said volume needs to come in to the Aussie Gold stocks.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm

Please read the above link...may give and indication of what may be happening with US Gold Indexes...and an indication of when volume will increase here.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> On that basis I see the current move as taking out  the US$725 gold price in the nearer term.   A dollar break below USDX 80.00 will  do it.  It hit a new low of 80.23 on Wednesday and sits currently at 80.48.    Any further rise in oil, almost at a new high, will fuel both respectively




hmm basing your beliefs on one thing doing something based on another can give you a rude shock.

What ever the fundamentals are i don't really care, the chart is all i follow. For now its so simple gold is in a choppy move until it can break 690 then 700$ on doing that it could go to 900$! or whatever you want to wildly speculate. if it can break 700 have a natural reaction and not break 700 with a close that will clinch it for me and yes we have a new break out.

I will watch your call of 725, for this new run see what happens. like i said i said i have a order at 697.

by the way Explod where in the southeast are u? I live in Oakleigh sth

see what happens


----------



## explod

bean said:


> As I said the gold stocks need volume
> 
> XGD average daily volume since 22 feb 50,393,515
> Since the 4 th July (when movemnet sort of started in US Gold Indexes and Price of Gold )  average daily volume has only been 45,662,741
> 
> SINO
> For the same period average daily volume was 886,384 since the 4th July (when they made an announcement) 938,326
> 
> As I said volume needs to come in to the Aussie Gold stocks.
> 
> http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm
> http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm
> 
> Please read the above link...may give and indication of what may be happening with US Gold Indexes...and an indication of when volume will increase here.




Had read that report, however the risistance line as drawn on Martin's chart has since breached on the upside.  I suspect his report was prepared some time before the US open last night.   I am never over confident about anything and as I said the Aussies always trail a few days, upside and react big downside, we are a conservative bunch, which is good.   But keep the powder dry we are ready for gold-bug blue skies


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> hmm basing your beliefs on one thing doing something based on another can give you a rude shock.
> 
> What ever the fundamentals are i don't really care, the chart is all i follow. For now its so simple gold is in a choppy move until it can break 690 then 700$ on doing that it could go to 900$! or whatever you want to wildly speculate. if it can break 700 have a natural reaction and not break 700 with a close that will clinch it for me and yes we have a new break out.
> 
> I will watch your call of 725, for this new run see what happens. like i said i said i have a order at 697.
> 
> see what happens




It is dangerous to only follow one chart in isolation, IMHO.  As a believer in gold, I chart "the gold stocks"  "the gold Price"  and other charts effecting gold such as "the oil chart" "the currency charts" "the gold production charts", all by technical analysis.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> It is dangerous to only follow one chart in isolation, IMHO. As a believer in gold, I chart "the gold stocks" "the gold Price" and other charts effecting gold such as "the oil chart" "the currency charts" "the gold production charts", all by technical analysis.




Even then, all of these entities are based on changing fundamentals/supply & demand of the underlying commodity. TA & FA are joined at the hip for gold, more so than for any other commodity/currency or jewelry.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> It is dangerous to only follow one chart in isolation, IMHO.  As a believer in gold, I chart "the gold stocks"  "the gold Price"  and other charts effecting gold such as "the oil chart" "the currency charts" "the gold production charts", all by technical analysis.




LOL good for u.

so how do we get a price target of 725? what did u use to get this price?


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> LOL good for u.
> 
> so how do we get a price target of 725? what did u use to get this price?




Not a price target, in saying that it "would take out $725", the charts (all of the charts I track) suggest a new high will be set in the coming month or two beyond the $725.   But that is only my idea, I have been wrong before.

Confirmation will come for me when the USDX closes below 80.00 and oil above US$78 will push that.   Both charts are perilously close and worth watching


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Not a price target, in saying that it "would take out $725", the charts (all of the charts I track) suggest a new high will be set in the coming month or two beyond the $725.   But that is only my idea, I have been wrong before.
> 
> Confirmation will come for me when the USDX closes below 80.00 and oil above US$78 will push that.   Both charts are perilously close and worth watching




Well any figure in prices terms that u see being reached or exceeded is a target.

My target is 697 with a push and close above 700, hey Explod i am all for this to happen, I have been waiting a long time. I was in the last two minor rallies and the last that hit 690 and backed off. That's why I can say with conviction this is no different until it proves its self different.

I just dont need to say ok if this and this happens it will happen, why? Cuz if they happen i will see it on the Spot gold chart.

Whatever u use to make your plays is fine even if our opinions are different to what should be watched to trade. I dont trade asx gold miners nor do i want to, I see you need to look at extra as u do. I look at the spot and that's it cuz that's what I trade. I do trade FX pairs I am long on the USD/JPY now.

So if your long on Gold now I hope to see it come true and you will be laughing if we break 700.

Good trading


----------



## explod

With you all the way Trade It.   Our different views makes for interesting and fruitful discussion.   I am primarily a holder of physical, have been since about $400 gold.  Not in gold stock at the moment either as I too act only on the uptick of the actual.

My input is fishing for the ideas of others.  Never stop learning and the current makes for intersting times

cheers Explod


----------



## BREND

With USD continues to fall, I believe we will see gold reaching $1,000 over the next 2 years.


----------



## Shane Baker

I assume that is in USD?? Interesting chart showing gold in AUD and USD over the last five years.

Cheers

Shane


----------



## BREND

Shane Baker said:


> I assume that is in USD?? Interesting chart showing gold in AUD and USD over the last five years.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Shane




Conclusion, better to buy gold futures? Tap on leverage effect...
Comex Gold futures is up again, now is trading at 679.40.


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Gold up and markets down.
> 
> Bean, is that part of the plan? Perhaps this is just a one off.




I was asked this question several days.  Please read this article (with charts) It is important the third paragraph. the whole article sould be read!!!!

Tonight may be another case...Is Gold breaking free?? 
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> I was asked this question several days.  Please read this article (with charts) It is important the third paragraph. the whole article sould be read!!!!
> 
> Tonight may be another case...Is Gold breaking free??
> http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm



I thought your theory was in relation to gold and gold stocks moving with the US markets, not anything to do with EW.


----------



## explod

bean said:


> I was asked this question several days.  Please read this article (with charts) It is important the third paragraph. the whole article sould be read!!!!
> 
> Tonight may be another case...Is Gold breaking free??
> http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm




The waves of the index (five) have been breached as stated in my post on this subject yesterday, though it has hit some resistance in current trading Sat. morning, our time (often happens in US market on the last day of the week).   Of the long term waves, (not shown on the chart) Goldberg asserts that we have only completed wave one. As a proclaimed bullish gold bug, he is making the case that the real upside for the long term gold trend has only just begun.    So he is also saying, hold onto those hats when the real action begins to play out.  IMHO


----------



## explod

Unfortunately the charts that go with the article did not transfer over in my copy and paste but if you hit the link you can read the article in its proper context .   the 3:16PM is US time.
cheers explod

Dollar Broke Down, Gold's Breakout to $700+/oz Imminent

 By John Lee      
Jul 20 2007 3:16PM

www.goldmau.com

In June I wrote: 

The dollar is likely to meander between 81 and 200 DMA of 84 for another month. Hiking of euro rates failed to propel Euro past 1.35. I still think USDX will break out to the upside. I have been bearish of the Euro at 1.35, I still don’t think Euro can take out 1.35. Euro at 163 to the yen is just not natural in my view. 

I was wrong, plain and simple. The dollar is showing exceptional weakness and another 5-10% breakdown can not be ruled out. 

The Euro has now broken through key resistance of 1.37, if 1.37 holds, this week, we can see the dollar index below 80. I believe people are betting against the dollar due to the inability for the Fed to raise rates (subprime problem) to calm inflation and make the dollar more attractive.

The (relatively) free-trading Asian currencies such as Philippine Peso and Thai Baht also have gone up 10%+ over the dollar this year. 

I see another 10-20% upside in those currencies in the next 12-24 months, and as much as 40% upside for RMB (i.e. 5 RMB to 1 USD) in the next 5 years.

You think I am crazy? 5 years ago Canadian dollar was C$1.45 to US $1. Now it’s C$1.04 to US $1. The Canadian dollar rallied over 13% since March. This is nothing short of a crash by the dollar over the loonie. 

I don’t see any impending crisis by the dollar’s breakdown, it will just bolster the case for gold, the sore lager in catching up to dollar’s fall. 

Gold and Silver: 

In the June update I wrote:

Gold is clinging on to $650, which acts as solid support. Gold has never dipped below 200 DMA ($635) for more than a month at a time and I don’t think it will go that low with May already behind us. 

While I was wrong on the Euro, I was right on gold. With most major and Asian currencies having broken out against the dollar, I place very high probability of gold breaking out of $675 and then $700 by September. 

In June I wrote: 

XAU is still in consolidation mode. However the XAU:Gold ratio is ticking up and challenging 200 DMA. Gold equity continues to go up against gold this could signal the final bottom for both gold and gold equity. 

If XAU survives and stays above 150 this week, we should see it challenge its 2006 high of 170 before September. XAU:Gold ratio also broke out. This indicates a bottom for both gold and XAU. If the ratio restores to its old high of 0.28, a $700 gold would mean a XAU of 200. A $850 gold price coupled with XAU:Gold ratio of 0.28 would mean a XAU of 240. XAU would be my first profit taking level and my target for 2007. 

CRB and Oil: 

Oil looks to test $80. I am very surprised at its strength, which is a partial reflection of the dollar’s weakness. I wouldn’t rule out a break out over $80 if the dollar breaks beneath 80.

Conclusion: 

The dollar is now showing exceptional weakness and now sits on critical support of 80. The breakout of Euro caught us somewhat by surprise. Lingering subprime issue prevents the Fed from raising interest rates, and persistent trade deficit and deteriorating global image of the dollar means dollar could have further downside to go. This is bullish for gold. There was no crash by the XAU so far this summer as we rightly predicted. The XAU:Gold ratio clearly broke out to the upside, which means gold and XAU have both likely bottomed. XAU is now favored over gold from risk / reward perspective. We see July and August as last chance to buy XAU before its spectacular break out above 200 this year.


John Lee,
CFA john@maucapital.com


----------



## BREND

explod said:


> Unfortunately the charts that go with the article did not transfer over in my copy and paste but if you hit the link you can read the article in its proper context .   the 3:16PM is US time.
> cheers explod
> 
> Dollar Broke Down, Gold's Breakout to $700+/oz Imminent
> 
> By John Lee
> Jul 20 2007 3:16PM
> 
> www.goldmau.com
> 
> In June I wrote:
> 
> The dollar is likely to meander between 81 and 200 DMA of 84 for another month. Hiking of euro rates failed to propel Euro past 1.35. I still think USDX will break out to the upside. I have been bearish of the Euro at 1.35, I still don’t think Euro can take out 1.35. Euro at 163 to the yen is just not natural in my view.
> 
> I was wrong, plain and simple. The dollar is showing exceptional weakness and another 5-10% breakdown can not be ruled out.
> 
> The Euro has now broken through key resistance of 1.37, if 1.37 holds, this week, we can see the dollar index below 80. I believe people are betting against the dollar due to the inability for the Fed to raise rates (subprime problem) to calm inflation and make the dollar more attractive.
> 
> The (relatively) free-trading Asian currencies such as Philippine Peso and Thai Baht also have gone up 10%+ over the dollar this year.
> 
> I see another 10-20% upside in those currencies in the next 12-24 months, and as much as 40% upside for RMB (i.e. 5 RMB to 1 USD) in the next 5 years.
> 
> You think I am crazy? 5 years ago Canadian dollar was C$1.45 to US $1. Now it’s C$1.04 to US $1. The Canadian dollar rallied over 13% since March. This is nothing short of a crash by the dollar over the loonie.
> 
> I don’t see any impending crisis by the dollar’s breakdown, it will just bolster the case for gold, the sore lager in catching up to dollar’s fall.
> 
> Gold and Silver:
> 
> In the June update I wrote:
> 
> Gold is clinging on to $650, which acts as solid support. Gold has never dipped below 200 DMA ($635) for more than a month at a time and I don’t think it will go that low with May already behind us.
> 
> While I was wrong on the Euro, I was right on gold. With most major and Asian currencies having broken out against the dollar, I place very high probability of gold breaking out of $675 and then $700 by September.
> 
> In June I wrote:
> 
> XAU is still in consolidation mode. However the XAU:Gold ratio is ticking up and challenging 200 DMA. Gold equity continues to go up against gold this could signal the final bottom for both gold and gold equity.
> 
> If XAU survives and stays above 150 this week, we should see it challenge its 2006 high of 170 before September. XAU:Gold ratio also broke out. This indicates a bottom for both gold and XAU. If the ratio restores to its old high of 0.28, a $700 gold would mean a XAU of 200. A $850 gold price coupled with XAU:Gold ratio of 0.28 would mean a XAU of 240. XAU would be my first profit taking level and my target for 2007.
> 
> CRB and Oil:
> 
> Oil looks to test $80. I am very surprised at its strength, which is a partial reflection of the dollar’s weakness. I wouldn’t rule out a break out over $80 if the dollar breaks beneath 80.
> 
> Conclusion:
> 
> The dollar is now showing exceptional weakness and now sits on critical support of 80. The breakout of Euro caught us somewhat by surprise. Lingering subprime issue prevents the Fed from raising interest rates, and persistent trade deficit and deteriorating global image of the dollar means dollar could have further downside to go. This is bullish for gold. There was no crash by the XAU so far this summer as we rightly predicted. The XAU:Gold ratio clearly broke out to the upside, which means gold and XAU have both likely bottomed. XAU is now favored over gold from risk / reward perspective. We see July and August as last chance to buy XAU before its spectacular break out above 200 this year.
> 
> 
> John Lee,
> CFA john@maucapital.com




Thanks John. $700 is an important resistance, if this resistance is broke, we may see new high for gold this year.


----------



## greggy

BREND said:


> Thanks John. $700 is an important resistance, if this resistance is broke, we may see new high for gold this year.



I'm still a gold bull.  Compared to other resource sectors, there hasn't been as much hype with gold stocks. But this may soon change with the gold price doing well of late.  I've recently increased my exposure to gold shares.
DYOR


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Maybe in for a small pullback in gold based on a major support line for the $US being hit now. Expecting a pullback on the basis that the US Fed will be (or should be?) intervening in the market to purchase the currency to prevent a wholesale dump.
 All things that are priced in $US could possibly come under pressure this week too eg commodities generally, especially copper?
If there isn't support here then gold could enter a fully fledged bull phase instead of a byproduct of the $US bear?


----------



## explod

The Fed has been full on trying to support the dollar now for a considerable period.  All central banks have been supressing the price of gold for the same reason.  They are fast running out of options, and the financial clout to do much more.  The dollar may hold out on this support for a week or two but reports due out of Wall Street in the same period will be increasingly negative.

This support idea is hyperthetical as the Index has not been this low since inception about 1974 when gold backed currency ceased.   Paper money is based on a promise, that promise is wearing thin because everyone is beginning to see that it buys less by the day.   IMHO.

We shall see what pans out


----------



## Boyou

This thread is by far the most engaging of all the (genaeral) topics here.IMO
And not just because I have invested in some Gold miners!
It seems to me the markets could be at the start of a crossroads...one where Fiat currencies have less clout than before., especiallythe once mighty  USD.... is under seige and some  sages are calling for a return to the Gold standard.(although that is not news  Ha Ha)

I took a quote from the second post on this thread by Joe and it seems to be  signal...back in June of 2004 when he posted it  the USD was far more influential than it is now...

Quote:-
But what about the strength of the American economy? When the American economy booms, the price of gold tends to suffer as people turn away from the yellow metal and into other investment vehicles. Lately US growth has been strong and I'm beginning to think that this is what has been holding gold back lately.
Unquote:-

Perhaps the current speculation about POG  says as much  about the rising economies of India and China as it does about the US.In short the old days are gone..a new regime is coming

Thanks ,explod ... and others for all the food for thought... 

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> In short the old days are gone..a new regime is coming




One problem with that is the new regimes are biult on the old ones being able to buy buy buy there products. Take away that demand from the west and will they still need so much of our minerals? What will happen to there growth if the oreders coming in were cut by 80% hmmm that could be interesting. not a disaster just a change in perspective.

Back to Gold yes this is looking good looking forward to seeing my order filled, But dot be surprised if we see a minor pull back soon.


----------



## Boyou

Very good points .I can imagine that a drastically reduced demand for Aus metals would be disastrous in the short term.

But ,then, revolutions are all about shaking things up a bit.

Fundamentally I don't care how quickly POG rises..or if it has a fallback in the short term.I really want to see the (possible ) "New World Order" get going.

The cards are being shuffled ,I think.Let them fall where thay may!


----------



## explod

Apart from arms the US manufacturing base within America itself, has been in a gradual decline for some years now (hence their rising unemployment).   As in Australia, manufacturers have been moving off shore to Asia and in particular, IT to India and goods to China.   However the expansion in China is so great that offshore input to their production is only a small part in their equation.  As recently as last week it was reported that China's total growth has in fact increased, not cooled as many on Wall had been predicting.

On another front, Rio Tinto announced three weeks ago that they had considerably ramped up the supply of ion ore to China but the demand continues to outstrip their capacity make headway in meeting it.   As indicated in posts above, what we a seeing is an enormous shift in the financial, manufacturing and, dare I say military might, between the super powers.   

China, as the largest owner of US debt, has been a big player in trying to hold value in the dollar, but to temper its own markets and expansion to some degree will have to allow its currency to appreciate soon.  When this begins to play out things could be pretty rough for awhile but gold (the Asian countries love it) will be a benefactor and the insurance policy of the savvy.  IMHO


----------



## BREND

Gold is certainly a good product to trade now, but do watch out for nickel as well. Nickel price is down 40% year-to-date, and price is rebounding now.


----------



## bean

The Action on friday for Gold and US Gold Indexes was pretty good.
In the article I post a link for a couple of things.  I had been mentioning how gold and US Gold Indexes have been following the US Markets.

Last week on both big downdays on the US Markets Gold and the Indexes finished positively.  Which may be showing Gold and Gold Indexes breaking free of US markets.  Friday XAU finished up HUI finished down but only just and it stayed above the 370 that was mentioned in the article. 

We have both the POG and Gold shares being positive at the moment.


----------



## bean

Well it looks like US Gold Indexes have broken free from the US Markets
Today they finished up and Gold indexes finished just in the red.
So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Well it looks like US Gold Indexes have broken free from the US Markets
> Today they finished up and Gold indexes finished just in the red.
> So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own



Were they ever really moving together bean? 

How about a chart?

Here's how to:

How to post a chart

Would love to see the comparison!! 

Cheers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

kennas said:


> Were they ever really moving together bean?
> 
> How about a chart?
> 
> Here's how to:
> 
> How to post a chart
> 
> Would love to see the comparison!!
> 
> Cheers.




No they were not Kennas, no they were not.

Kennas how's your new pad coming along? I am still waiting so jump on a plane and come kick it with you lol 

Now this is the minor reaction I was seeing on the charts. this will show how much bullish drive there is in this new short term trend on the speed of the buy back of the new lower price opportunity.


----------



## bean

bean said:


> I was asked this question several days.  Please read this article (with charts) It is important the third paragraph. the whole article sould be read!!!!
> 
> Tonight may be another case...Is Gold breaking free??
> http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm




I did say third paragraph...For you the third chart...but I did say read the whole article...apart from the chart you may have to read


----------



## Bush Trader

Which do you think is the more important Psychological barrier for the punters

Gold breaking US$700

Or

Gold breaking EUR$520

I would be interested in your thoughts

If you were a central bank selling down gold at the US$690 mark is it as attractive now as it was last September.  With the erosion of the US$ against all other currencies do we need to factor this into our new resistance calculations.

Cheers


BT


----------



## theasxgorilla

Bush Trader said:


> If you were a central bank selling down gold at the US$690 mark is it as attractive now as it was last September.  With the erosion of the US$ against all other currencies do we need to factor this into our new resistance calculations.




Its an interesting question.  Have you heard of Elliott Wave?  Bob Prechter over at Elliott Wave International created the Stable Currency Benchmark (SCB) because he found that on US stock indices, during the '00-'02 bear market, impulse wave counts which he expected to be clear and easy to count were in fact not.  This could have suggested in itself that they weren't actually impulse wave counts, but he was convinced otherwise.

The SCB sought to try and normalise moves on the stock indices for changes in valuation of the underlying currency.  In this case the USD.  So your question about how the USD relates to gold in terms of technical analysis is quite profound and I think very relavant.  My own thoughts are that short term the distortions are not a factor.  Psychology and actual round numbers like $700 are more significant.  Longer term it is, IMO, a big factor and one which renders impossible long term wave counting.

ASX.G


----------



## bean

An interesting night ahead for Gold as US$ Index has just falling through 80


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> I did say third paragraph...For you the third chart...but I did say read the whole article...apart from the chart you may have to read



Sorry bean but when you said the 3rd paragraph and I read it, and then the forth, and there was still nothing on index v POG, I assumed you had posted the wrong article. 

I'm not sure why it's so hard for you to copy that chart and paste it in the thread. 1 minute later:


----------



## Bush Trader

Bush Trader said:


> Which do you think is the more important Psychological barrier for the punters
> 
> Gold breaking US$700
> 
> Or
> 
> Gold breaking EUR$520
> 
> I would be interested in your thoughts
> 
> If you were a central bank selling down gold at the US$690 mark is it as attractive now as it was last September.  With the erosion of the US$ against all other currencies do we need to factor this into our new resistance calculations.




When are one of you Gold Bugs going to answer my question, this will be Gold's real test wont it?

PS Thanks for insights ASXGorilla


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bush Trader said:


> When are one of you Gold Bugs going to answer my question, this will be Gold's real test wont it?
> 
> PS Thanks for insights ASXGorilla




I would think $US700 is the psychological & technical hurdle, as per Gorilla. Even with the Aus price of gold going down due to the $AUS, share prices have been rising as apparently most investors only track the US price for some reason, with only a cursury glance at the pog in their own currency.

I'm not convinced yet that this is the real deal; a bull trap if you like. The US Fed will fight to the death to resurrect the $US from this point so get ready for some currency action & central bank gold dumping the next few day's maybe?


----------



## drillinto

Gold bugs start to salivate

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=F60A8536-17A4-1130-F53F7D6B97FC10E1


----------



## Bush Trader

Gold Bugs pack up the Picnic, and buy $Euro?

Is the carnage Central Bank Selling or nervous Traders?

Any Comments?


Cheers


BT

PS Thanks for your thought Festivus - You may have been right!


----------



## bean

Bush Trader said:


> Gold Bugs pack up the Picnic, and buy $Euro?
> 
> Is the carnage Central Bank Selling or nervous Traders?
> 
> Any Comments?
> 
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> BT
> 
> PS Thanks for your thought Festivus - You may have been right!




Ted Butler mentioned a few days ago the setup in comittments of traders COT
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1185292923.php

I have noticed a few writers I read start to mentioned little bits about the US FED may actually be going to lower interest rates.  Once I find a good article on it I will post it.  

US markets need watching as I still think they will if they sell off cause the POG and gold shares to fall.

South African gold miners need watching in case the workers don't get wage rise they want and go on strike next month


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It's still a story about the $US, irrespective of the coincidences with share markets gyrations. We are at the line in the sand as far as the US Fed goes - see the charts. All it needs is for some entity to step up to the plate eg Goldman Sachs (or THE Fed), and the rest on technicals & get a bit of support and off it goes, wipeing out all those short stops along the way. So we have a short covering rally unfolding right now, with collateral damage to the gold price, and commodities in general.

Gold is showing some strength though after rebounding off the lows. XAU could possibly be oversold with stocks so keep an eye for some bargains soon?


----------



## professor_frink

BREND said:


> I had raised my limit price to 674, and it was filled.




evening BREND,

that gold trade is looking a little sick. Any updates on how you are managing the trade?


----------



## BREND

professor_frink said:


> evening BREND,
> 
> that gold trade is looking a little sick. Any updates on how you are managing the trade?




Cut loss at 676 for Oct contract, previously already made some money in Aug contract. 

Holding on to Lead now.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Well Goldie's, 

Am I surprised, no........

This trend is in a critical area now need to see some strength tail touched the 61% point its now sitting on 50% which is a heathly retrace but any deeper could put real pressure on this minor rally and cancel it out.

Bean,

Is this due to the sell off on the dow and co? : WHERE THE F#@K IS THE CRASH PROTECTION TEAM! GOD DAM IT, WHERE!


----------



## Gar

Trade_It said:


> WHERE THE F#@K IS THE CRASH PROTECTION TEAM! GOD DAM IT, WHERE!




They're at the pub with their fingers in ears singing "la la la la la" :run:

I'll probably be joining them this afternoon


----------



## bean

It would appear Gold and Gold stocks are and will follow the market down
Us Gold Inexes have been down 5 days in a row.

Crash Protection team has not been needed for the DOW just yet.  The Dow did hit a low of 13335 last night so it rallied 130 point from its low!!!
and the DOW has been 1down 1 up since last friday and its had 3 ugly days in that time.

So a dead cat bounce tonight????
Then splat Splat SPLAT?
or just SPLAT? 

I have the DOW and Gold Indexexs sitting on or about support levels.
I sold today took profits (not much but a profit).  Only because I do not like the position of the DOW.  And I believe POG and Gold stocks will follow the market if it goes down 
The DOW everyone is expecting a bouce (It is not over sold!!! That may be used as an excuse if it does bounce but it is not oversold!!!)


----------



## BREND

I did some selling on US stocks last night too. Just to have more cash on hand when the bargains come.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Well it looks like US Gold Indexes have broken free from the US Markets
> Today they finished up and Gold indexes finished just in the red.
> So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own






bean said:


> It would appear Gold and Gold stocks are and will follow the market down.....And I believe POG and Gold stocks will follow the market if it goes down


----------



## bean

Words are just like charts read into them what you wish.
one could show a chart of the DOW till last friday and most would have said its O/K.   
Yes I though Gold maybe breaking free one two or three days does not a change make.  Especially when market corrects as it stars to.  Unfortuanatly it did not.  However I always said that no matter what POG and gold stocks would follow the market when it was going to correct.
Now the question is to pick the time when POG and the gold indexes will break from the market.  
If for example the Gold Indexes do have a 30% correction to occur (a time frame...depends on the US markets ) Then one would say if Gold Indexes are still following them then does that make the DOW 10000 give or take before Gold breaks free????
I am a Gold Bull but a market Bear!!! Does that confuse you.  
I have a sell on the market but Gold Indexes are "Just" they are at support I would be long if it were not for the general US market.


> So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own



I do hope to be able to use that SOON. and it stands true

Kennas that chart you posted for me thanks, but it does show what I have been saying.  I was not to sure about copyright laws thats why I did not post it.  But did you read the whole article if you did you may have been out of gold stocks a few days ago.


----------



## bean




----------



## bean

bean said:


> View attachment 11835



His last sentance says it all one day does not a trend make


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> His last sentance says it all one day does not a trend make



Whooohooo! A chart! Good work bean!!  

Yes, I absolutely agree, one day does not, so we need to be careful when announcing a new trend has occurred after one or two trading days.

One odd thing with that graph is that the author calls it the Wilshire 5000, then mentions the S&P500, and then uses the Mid Cap 400 as his chart...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I think some people are confusing trends & fundamentals of gold with trends & fundamentals of gold stocks, resulting in some confusion. The 2 should be studied in isolation but always with an overall view.

The primary driver for gold is the $US (or a high correlation at least). The primary driver for gold stocks is the gold price and general market sentiment. At the moment the $US is at the beginning of a flight to safety breakout & short squeeze, ironically due to the obvious problems with a credit crunch, from problems from the housing bust, from problems from the lowering of interest rates from the dotcom bust. So the flight to the $US is because of too much $US???

Once it is realised the dog is chasing it's own tail, there could be the final sell-off in the $US and then a flight to the ultimate store of safety. Is it safe, yet?


----------



## explod

I have put up a post on "GOLD stocks gathering momentum" which being large I refer you to rather than repeat.

As with stocks the gold price will also fall during this period as the big players search for liquidity to meet margin calls.   The crash panning out now my not be the big part of the drop but it is now well underway and the smart money now knows that thier activities of the last few years have not been very smart.

cheers explod


----------



## bean

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think some people are confusing trends & fundamentals of gold with trends & fundamentals of gold stocks, resulting in some confusion. The 2 should be studied in isolation but always with an overall view.
> 
> The primary driver for gold is the $US (or a high correlation at least). The primary driver for gold stocks is the gold price and general market sentiment. At the moment the $US is at the beginning of a flight to safety breakout & short squeeze, ironically due to the obvious problems with a credit crunch, from problems from the housing bust, from problems from the lowering of interest rates from the dotcom bust. So the flight to the $US is because of too much $US???
> 
> Once it is realised the dog is chasing it's own tail, there could be the final sell-off in the $US and then a flight to the ultimate store of safety. Is it safe, yet?




I agree however I find that the true advances are when POG and US Gold indexes move as one (both confirm the advance) on some occassions one may lead the other...the gold indicies could even lead gold higher. 
I also find that if one goes by itself and the other does not confirm the move then it is more liable to break down.

For monday I believe the Gold Indicies will be down and more than likely the POG as the general markets themselves will be under pressure.
However at some stage on monday the Crash protection team may be hard at work if the markets do fall.  Could the US markets have a bounce late afternoon? I have them falling and a CRASH possibility tuesday (If monday is indeed down) because panic will set in.

The action of the US markets monday is of great importantace
It is not on gold but the DOW 
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1185726325.php


----------



## Magdoran

bean said:


> I agree however I find that the true advances are when POG and US Gold indexes move as one (both confirm the advance) on some occassions one may lead the other...the gold indicies could even lead gold higher.
> I also find that if one goes by itself and the other does not confirm the move then it is more liable to break down.
> 
> For monday I believe the Gold Indicies will be down and more than likely the POG as the general markets themselves will be under pressure.
> However at some stage on monday the Crash protection team may be hard at work if the markets do fall.  Could the US markets have a bounce late afternoon? I have them falling and a CRASH possibility tuesday (If monday is indeed down) because panic will set in.
> 
> The action of the US markets monday is of great importantace
> It is not on gold but the DOW
> http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1185726325.php



Bean, 

Remember my post on the S&P 500? Got the price wrong by one increment, how did you like the time projection?



Magdoran said:


> S&P 500 attached.




I take it that Gold must now fall in 2-4 weeks time to $540.  Is this correct?



bean said:


> The $540 low in Gold is dependent on when the markets tank.
> Will have more idea on the timing then. within 2-4weeks of falling.




Let's see you project an exact date into the future like me.  Come on, you keep posting vague comments.  Just give one date and one price please rather than an imprecise "it will fall some time" comment.   On what day exactly will gold hit $540 as previously forecast?

No obfuscation, just one date.



Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wavepicker

I firmly beleive that precious metals remains in a secular uptrend. But have  refrained from taking long term positions just yet because the psychological upswing from last year is not over. As such I expect lower OR at least net sideways pattern for a while yet yet. Just looking at the pattern of the last year, as expected it has been a corrective struggling affair. It does not LOOK completed yet.

Where to now??  In my opinion the bulls have to be all washed out first before the next upward phase begins. If the equity markets get smashed I think the precious metals will fall too INITIALLY, but be the first ones out of the decline in the years ahead. 

This happened in the 1970's, back then Gold shot up from $50 to $200 and spent 2 years correcting back to $100. This correction was a springboard to a massive upward move in the subsequent years.

So for now I am on the sidelines with regard to Gold

Cheers


----------



## Joules MM1

wavepicker said:


> I firmly beleive that precious metals remains in a secular uptrend. But have  refrained from taking long term positions just yet because the psychological upswing from last year is not over. As such I expect lower OR at least net sideways pattern for a while yet yet. Just looking at the pattern of the last year, as expected it has been a corrective struggling affair. It does not LOOK completed yet.
> 
> Where to now??  In my opinion the bulls have to be all washed out first before the next upward phase begins. If the equity markets get smashed I think the precious metals will fall too INITIALLY, but be the first ones out of the decline in the years ahead.
> 
> This happened in the 1970's, back then Gold shot up from $50 to $200 and spent 2 years correcting back to $100. This correction was a springboard to a massive upward move in the subsequent years.
> 
> So for now I am on the sidelines with regard to Gold
> 
> Cheers




Is that the technical release jump when the Nixon decree affected the whole structure of public pricing and then the market also had to find its own equillibrium? IS that likely to occur again soon?


----------



## wavepicker

Joules MM1 said:


> Is that the technical release jump when the Nixon decree affected the whole structure of public pricing and then the market also had to find its own equillibrium? IS that likely to occur again soon?




I hear what you are saying, however the various phases/structure of the advance since 1999 appears similar to that of the 1970's. 

Besides precious metals have done bugger all for over the last 12 months and don't look they will in the short term do they???


----------



## Joules MM1

wavepicker said:


> I hear what you are saying, however the various phases/structure of the advance since 1999 appears similar to that of the 1970's.
> 
> Besides precious metals have done bugger all for over the last 12 months and don't look they will in the short term do they???





actually, my question was a tad facetious given the amount of peers who see gold as the real money that the government(s) are going to want to control........especially given the theoretical idea that fewer and fewer people trust fiat currencies........

in the liquidity wash, what has attracted liquidity out of gold and metals into stocks? and of course there's the old nugget of inflation when we have many more  signs of deflation..........mmmmmmm.........

according to the technicalindicators.com site the industrey hedgers are 63% short (the "a-ha" almost 61.8% number.........yeah, I know.......) while only 23% long.........I guess they know something about protection and the large speculators 38% long and only 8% short ........of course, this is about interpretation of those positions which is not to be read the same as the emini positions ...........

I think the main challenge is whether we  are now into a credit-debt crunch, in which case, if so, then the market is not yet in need of gold protection until the other curve is ended...........


----------



## wavepicker

Joules MM1 said:


> actually, my question was a tad facetious given the amount of peers who see gold as the real money that the government(s) are going to want to control........especially given the theoretical idea that fewer and fewer people trust fiat currencies........
> 
> in the liquidity wash, what has attracted liquidity out of gold and metals into stocks? and of course there's the old nugget of inflation when we have many more  signs of deflation..........mmmmmmm.........
> 
> according to the technicalindicators.com site the industrey hedgers are 63% short (the "a-ha" almost 61.8% number.........yeah, I know.......) while only 23% long.........I guess they know something about protection and the large speculators 38% long and only 8% short ........of course, this is about interpretation of those positions which is not to be read the same as the emini positions ...........
> 
> I think the main challenge is whether we  are now into a credit-debt crunch, in which case, if so, then the market is not yet in need of gold protection until the other curve is ended...........




Dunno what to make of COT data these days, especially in this case, a bit of a coin toss really.
Looking at the US Dollar Index chart there is a strong indication that the US Dollar is going to strengthen against a number of World currencies. I suspect the Dollar is going to do rather well in the short term. That is not to say that it will be a reversal, I am thinking that might be a good 12 months away yet. But Gold will be probably be still caught in a range at the very least if this is in fact the case.


I see a possibility of a sell off in Bonds, thus interest rates will be moving higher and this in turn might explain the dollar strength if it in fact does continue to show strength at this juncture.


Cheers


----------



## stockGURU

During recent falls in the U.S. markets over the last week or so it seemed that the price of gold was following it down. However, last night the trend changed and as the DOW plunged gold rallied about $US7 to $US672.70.

Any explanation for this change? And if the DOW continues to fall does anyone expect to see continued strength in the price of gold?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

stockGURU said:


> During recent falls in the U.S. markets over the last week or so it seemed that the price of gold was following it down. However, last night the trend changed and as the DOW plunged gold rallied about $US7 to $US672.70.
> 
> Any explanation for this change? And if the DOW continues to fall does anyone expect to see continued strength in the price of gold?





One week doesn't make a new trend but interesting that the tentative rebound in the $US failed, and the gold price strengthened in the face of universal capitulation in most other markets. 

Gold still bullish, $US bearish, BB band contracting, explosive moves ahead? 12 months of accumulation ready to break out, & coming into a traditionaly bullish part of the year for gold.  Not sure about gold shares as they may be caught up in the contagion?


----------



## Sean K

As with above comments I am getting a little bullish on gold. An added kicker comming up is the fed decision on interest rates. If helicopter Ben agrees with Jim Cramer and decides that interest rates must be lowered to save their housing market, the $US will slide further and gold will go up. The degree to which it goes, is another question. I'm with Uncle F on the wind up over the past 15 months, but it might depend on who wins the battle between the manipulators and the speculators.....could be a time to get set with some gold longs. However, I still think that in the very short term, that individual gold stocks will be influenced by the overall market moreso than POG. There's also talk of industrial action in Sth Africa, which could influence production. Add to all that the Middle East simmering and Iran being forced into a corner...mmmmm. Lot's of 'ifs' in this paragraph though. Gosh, I'm sounding like bean....LOL.


----------



## bean

Won't say to much been to the big smoke last week catch a few games. Even saw a draw.  And took no notice of the market.  But its good when you come back and can even buy 10% more of the stocks you had prior to selling and can even buy another

Please read the whole article.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

I have just finished all my buying!!!
But I will know and be ready to sell if I have to, but may have picked up some good bargains In fact I am showing green already.


----------



## Magdoran

bean said:


> The $540 low in Gold is dependent on when the markets tank.
> Will have more idea on the timing then. within 2-4weeks of falling.
> 
> Where is the Bullish there.  I have been completely right being a bear.



So, Bean,


Are you sticking with your earlier forecast that Gold will follow the US market down within 4 weeks or not?  (It sounds like you’ve changed your mind on this one again, and have become bullish on Gold despite the falls on the equity markets).

I thought your thesis was that Gold and the US market were trading in lock step.  Have you now abandoned this theory?  If so, what was your reasoning in the first place, and what has changed so substantially to make you reverse your thinking?


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Sean K

Magdoran said:


> So, Bean,
> 
> 
> Are you sticking with your earlier forecast that Gold will follow the US market down within 4 weeks or not?  (It sounds like you’ve changed your mind on this one again, and have become bullish on Gold despite the falls on the equity markets).
> 
> I thought your thesis was that Gold and the US market were trading in lock step.  Have you now abandoned this theory?  If so, what was your reasoning in the first place, and what has changed so substantially to make you reverse your thinking?
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran



Mag, see post 1541. 

Bean, what's the theory? 

Gold and gold stocks down with equities, or not?

Or ??


----------



## Magdoran

kennas said:


> Mag, see post 1541.
> 
> Bean, what's the theory?
> 
> Gold and gold stocks down with equities, or not?
> 
> Or ??



Hello kennas,


Absolutely, your post is spot on.  I’m glad it’s not just me who is seeing glaring contradictions, and continuous arbitrary back flips.

But I want to pin him down as to why he is chopping and changing in such a whimsical fashion.  In good faith even when assuming that there is some good reason he is posting maybe there is some method to his madness, but so far it’s eluded me.

In my view such inconsistency in thinking is not helpful to investors and traders that may be staking real capital in the markets.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. How is South America treating you?


----------



## bean

Magdoran said:


> So, Bean,
> 
> 
> Are you sticking with your earlier forecast that Gold will follow the US market down within 4 weeks or not?  (It sounds like you’ve changed your mind on this one again, and have become bullish on Gold despite the falls on the equity markets).
> 
> I thought your thesis was that Gold and the US market were trading in lock step.  Have you now abandoned this theory?  If so, what was your reasoning in the first place, and what has changed so substantially to make you reverse your thinking?
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran




Did you read all the article??
Once you have there is no need for me to answer


----------



## bean

The link again
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

I know what is required over the next few days to enter or exit.
I have re-entered but if I do not get numbers I will exit in the next day or two
I know what the gold indexes have to do tonight.  what range to stay in.  and what is required the next night.  If they don't stay within this range I may exit tomorrow.


----------



## Magdoran

bean said:


> Did you read all the article??
> Once you have there is no need for me to answer



Bean,


I find it difficult to conceal my scepticism for people who chop and change from championing one “guru” or another and reprinting someone else’s work without understanding it.

I find it supremely ironic that you are lecturing me with an article which is based on a rudimentary style of cycle analysis.

If *you’d *actually bothered to read my works on this site you’d know that I have developed a sophisticated time cycle approach, but one I’d argue which has performed quite satisfactorily, and in my current estimation would significantly outperform the approach ventured in your article.

You obviously haven’t got the message, have you?  I posted a forecast on the S&P 500 challenging you to match my forecast, which you ignored.  This was in response to your thesis that Gold was tied to the US market, and you made a prediction that gold would follow the market down 2-4 weeks from the fall, or have you forgotten?



bean said:


> The $540 low in Gold is dependent on when the markets tank.
> Will have more idea on the timing then. within 2-4weeks of falling.
> Where is the Bullish there.  I have been completely right being a bear.




If you bothered to actually look at my S&P 500 projection, it was spot on to the day despite the price being wrong (I did this also for the XAO for the Feb 23).  Now you fob me off with your latest flavour of the month article and think this is even remotely an equivalent response.



Magdoran said:


> S&P 500 projection




So, in direct contradiction to your assertion that all anyone needs to do is to read the article you posted, I don’t think it measures up at all.  

You seem to think that if someone sets up a website and waxes flowery financial terms, that they must be wise and know what they’re talking about, and lap it up uncritically like it’s gospel.  This is incredibly naïve in my view, and also very lazy to flit from article to article in order to formulate financial strategies, let alone the lack of analysis of the articles.  Now if this was just for your own financial decisions, I wouldn’t have an issue, you have every right to determine your own criteria.  

Where I have a problem is that there are fairly inexperienced players joining ASF hence people like kennas and I feel obliged to address posts like yours and challenge them.  If you were sufficiently capable of mounting a well formulated argument, or coherent logically argued case yourself rather than just relying on “articles”, fine.  But this random “spin the bottle” style of guru selection and link pasting runs a poor second to many of the more experienced posters on this thread.  At least make the effort and come up with something original.


----------



## bean

Martin Golberg link posted a few weeks ago


		HTML:
	

A closer look at the corrective Wave 2 is in order as illustrated in the 3-year weekly chart below. You can see the $HUI’s four attempts at breaching the 370 barrier, each of which was turned back with a sharp and painful correction. Each of these corrections brought the index sharply below the 10 and 40 week moving averages. What is particularly bullish is that with each correction, the $HUI made a higher low before again trying to challenge 370. The consecutive higher lows suggest that when the existing trading range resolves, it will resolve to the upside. Also, in 5 consecutive weeks in May and June, the $HUI tried to break below 318 and this level held thereby forming a strong support level.





The HUI is currently at 339.73 made a low about 6 days ago 338.00 rose then last wednesday 339.65 and fridays 339.73 
Is the 338.00 level holding and will it be a higher low.  Ready for an assault on the 370.00.  
Thats another reason why I know the action reqired for next day or two.
My own Gold indexes are holding they are also on the edge but!!!

The US stock market indexes are all negative I would be out the market...
Only for...
But the gold indexes might be holding for a reason, but I am also taking a risk as I think it may just hold.  I can afford to take the risk as I was over 10% ahead if I had held my stocks.  
If the gold indexes do fall gold will follow.

MAG do I read your stuff yes and no
Yes always interested to see what other people have.
But must say take them with a grain of salt after your E-WAVE fight.


----------



## Magdoran

bean said:


> Martin Golberg link posted a few weeks ago
> 
> 
> HTML:
> 
> 
> A closer look at the corrective Wave 2 is in order as illustrated in the 3-year weekly chart below. You can see the $HUI’s four attempts at breaching the 370 barrier, each of which was turned back with a sharp and painful correction. Each of these corrections brought the index sharply below the 10 and 40 week moving averages. What is particularly bullish is that with each correction, the $HUI made a higher low before again trying to challenge 370. The consecutive higher lows suggest that when the existing trading range resolves, it will resolve to the upside. Also, in 5 consecutive weeks in May and June, the $HUI tried to break below 318 and this level held thereby forming a strong support level.
> 
> 
> View attachment 12087
> 
> 
> The HUI is currently at 339.73 made a low about 6 days ago 338.00 rose then last wednesday 339.65 and fridays 339.73
> Is the 338.00 level holding and will it be a higher low.  Ready for an assault on the 370.00.
> Thats another reason why I know the action reqired for next day or two.
> My own Gold indexes are holding they are also on the edge but!!!
> 
> The US stock market indexes are all negative I would be out the market...
> Only for...
> But the gold indexes might be holding for a reason, but I am also taking a risk as I think it may just hold.  I can afford to take the risk as I was over 10% ahead if I had held my stocks.
> If the gold indexes do fall gold will follow.
> 
> MAG do I read your stuff yes and no
> Yes always interested to see what other people have.
> But must say take them with a grain of salt after your E-WAVE fight.



Huh?  What "E-Wave fight"???


----------



## Ageo

Hi guys, i dont like repeating posts but this is what i wrote from another thread and reflects this subject well. So this is for those of you that missed it



> Guys im not sure on the production levels and how everything else is going but i am in the Gold market (jewellery wholesaler) and can tell you how its affected the world in Jewellery.
> 
> We import gold (9ct & 18ct) from Italy and ive been to many jewellery fares around the world such as Hong Kong, Switzerland, Italy and many other places. Basically the jewellery industry especially gold has taken a bit of a hit simply because gold prices have risen alot in the last 10 yrs and the problem is manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers realise this but the customers dont and think prices are still the same as 10 years ago. So alot of people have held off buying gold in many ways (only for special occasions mainly) and the reason we know this is because retail shops tell us all the time (worst year in business for mostly all of them) and people want 18ct gold for 9ct prices. Manufacturers in Italy have large stockpiles of gold jewellery simply because they cant move it as fast as they did in the past. So basically if the demand for gold is decreasing then dont expect the price of gold too shoot up anytime soon (i could be wrong of course) but demand isnt high and prices tend to stagnate and thats what the current prices are doing atm. Could you imagine if gold hit $800+ per ounce? People wouldnt buy because cost of living is rising and people cant afford to buy luxury goods.
> 
> Gold is a long term investment where inevitably like most precious metals will go up in value since its a commodity that will only last so long.
> 
> Just thought id give you a perspective from supply and demand area.


----------



## boiler

Gold's time is coming: Lassonde 

Rebecca Lawson
Monday, 6 August 2007

THIS year's recipient of the 2007 Diggers & Dealers G J Stokes Memorial Award, Newmont vice chairman Pierre Lassonde, believes the resources boom will last a whole generation.



Pierre Lassonde 

Kicking off the annual mining forum held in Kalgoorlie, Lassonde warmed up the packed house by telling his tale of lost luggage and the hardship of trying to buy a "polyester" suit in the town on a Sunday afternoon. 

Peppering his presentation with entertaining anecdotes, Lassonde got down to business, paying particular attention to the "super cycle" the resource sector is enjoying and drawing comparisons to the last super cycle between 1966 and 1980. 

Lassonde said that just like the last super cycle that was propped up and prepared by the baby boomers, this cycle was the work of China and India's booming economies. 

He said the external factors were also strikingly similar, including wars in both cycles, for example, the Vietnam war in the past and the current war in Iraq and on Al Qaeda. 

Inflation was also high in both eras and gold in the past shot up 2300% while currently it is up 170%. 

"Gold's time is coming," he said. 

However Lassonde said the similarities ended there and the difference between the two super cycles was that more companies – paying particular homage to the oil sector – were increasingly government controlled. 

He said profits were not going into exploration, hence discoveries have decreased, and permitting, political and environmental responses have become more challenging.

Building on the differences, Lassonde said the gold sector was not coming up with the big discoveries made in the past super cycle, although this time around exploration budgets were bigger. 

"The big discoveries – the Yancochas, the Super pit – they were all made back in the 60s, 70s and 80s," Lassonde said. 

"Look at the past 20 years, [discovery is] coming down and down and down.

"When is the last time you had a 30 million ounce discovery in the world? Not in this decade I can tell you that." 

Lassonde also said demand for gold jewellery is at an all time high, with advertisements placed by the World Gold Council – which Lassonde is a member of – in China, India, America, Europe and the Middle East having a profound effect. 

Wrapping up the presentation, Lassonde gave several predictions for this current super cycle, based on past events. 

"This bull market in natural resources will last a whole generation, that's 20 years plus and, yes, China and India will have hiccups, but while they have crisis situations they will not stop growing," he said. 

"The $US dollar over the next five years will plunge against [China's] RMB."

Lassonde predicts the Canadian and Australian dollar will grow a further 5-10% against the US dollar, with the Canadian dollar reaching a high of around $1.06. 

Based on history, Lassonde said copper and moly producers have been unable to withstand prosperity. He added that we have probably seen the metals' price reach its peak. 

Commodities to perform well in this cycle are nickel, platinum, gold and oil, and in his mind the last two commodities will perform the best in this cycle.

Lassonde also brought in the Dow Jones index into his prediction, saying the gold price and the index will come down to a 1:1 ratio. 

This would be similar to the path taken in the last cycle in the 1960s when the ratio was 28:1, and in the 80s when it was a 1:1 ratio.

Lassonde said in 2000, the ratio was 42:1 and that the ratio has decreased to 20:1. 

Sure to leave a good taste in the mouths of gold investors, Lassonde's final prediction was that gold would have three zeros in its price, however he conceded he had no idea what the first number could be.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> But must say take them with a grain of salt after your E-WAVE fight.




LOL now that is classic,

Mag was supporting or attacking EW in this fight bean? You sure it was not a dream?

Bean,

Mag's points are very vaild, I think you need to adress them.

Reports in my experience are to be taken with a grain of salt!


----------



## numbercruncher

> Gold sales jumped 22.4 per cent to a record $65.3bn last year in spite of a 10 per cent fall in demand in tonnage terms, according to the World Gold Council, which released its fourth-quarter report on the market on Thursday.




http://http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6ff2a310-bceb-11db-90ae-0000779e2340.html


Selling less for more ... Sounds good to me! My personal favorite is Australian Gold Sovereigns, Numismatic value and a Intrisic value for the .2354oz in each coin!

Long live gold!


----------



## bean

The countdown begins
A make or break couple of days
Was that the bottom last night in the gold indicies?
I mentioned 338 in my last post as low
If you saw the attachment you would have seen the previous higher low was 320


----------



## explod

bean said:


> The countdown begins
> A make or break couple of days
> Was that the bottom last night in the gold indicies?
> I mentioned 338 in my last post as low
> If you saw the attachment you would have seen the previous higher low was 320




From a charting perspective, last nights action on the HUI index completed a candle reverse hammer.   However such a signal is not confirmed till we get a white candle rising above that.    At the moment, and as you have said, these indexes are moving with the overall markets so we should not get too excited yet.

For a real move we need a break out on the gold price itself.  I don't, after much coaching seem to be able to post charts, perhaps someone will be kind enough to do so in support of the following.

If we look back to about May last year, gold made a new 20 year high of US$725 an ounce, six weeks later it fell to $540 an ounce.   If you imagine lines from this top and bottom till the present we can see the formation of a flag or pennant shape.  From a technical perspective a strong break up or down out of this pennant signals the next move.   In my view it can still move sideways for 3 or 4 weeks before a break has to occur.   As this is a well known formation the break here will have a strong phsychological effect on gold traders.    From a seasonal perspective the end of the US summer period has been on average over the last few years the beginning of strong uptrends in the gold price.    I also believe that the Central Banks will do all they can to retard the movement of the gold price for some time.

In essence, yes I believe a strong up move is coming but we need to look at the overall picture, not just the HUI in isolation


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> For a real move we need a break out on the gold price itself.  I don't, after much coaching seem to be able to post charts, perhaps someone will be kind enough to do so in support of the following.




Something like this explod?


----------



## explod

Thank you Uncle, that is perfect.  My step Grandson when he has time is going to coach me up on chart select and past.   With care I have followed the guidlines offerred by the forums but I still cant' get it


As we ponder I notice gold and silver being pushed down and the US dollar index up.    Time and again week after week this occurs between markets when there is little active trading.   Again it is a clear indication of how strong the gold price really is and how easily the general investment community is being fooled.


----------



## bean

explod said:


> As we ponder I notice gold and silver being pushed down and the US dollar index up.    Time and again week after week this occurs between markets when there is little active trading.   Again it is a clear indication of how strong the gold price really is and how easily the general investment community is being fooled.



We will see how strong POG is... 
If this is the real deal you will be surprised at the movement over the next few days of the US Gold Indexes and POG
A breakdown however will be just as severe.
as the gold indexes will fall below support.
Also a breakdown will be showing the direction of the general market.


----------



## explod

bean said:


> We will see how strong POG is...
> If this is the real deal you will be surprised at the movement over the next few days of the US Gold Indexes and POG
> A breakdown however will be just as severe.
> as the gold indexes will fall below support.
> Also a breakdown will be showing the direction of the general market.




I have no doubt that gold will hold up in the face of the off market attempts by the Central Banks.  In fact I inferred that.

What I would like to know is the rationale/reasoning behind your above statements.  I am not trying to be hard but to help each other in learning we need to know the WHY and HOW

cheers explod


----------



## bean

explod said:


> I have no doubt that gold will hold up in the face of the off market attempts by the Central Banks.  In fact I inferred that.
> 
> What I would like to know is the rationale/reasoning behind your above statements.  I am not trying to be hard but to help each other in learning we need to know the WHY and HOW
> 
> cheers explod




That SKI system I posted links to I quite like and take notice. 

Years ago when making programs for the market I did not have enough daily day for the US market.  so while working out technical analysis one of the things you look at is moving averages which are behind the 8 ball in moves so I started looking at random numbers so I could with those predict the market movements I then added the technical analysis to those and I developed it for a bear market out.  As I said the other day I went 100% back in monday morning because I had an oversold signal developed and it was showing oversold and it was not showing another signal I have, that I would not have purchased as it would have overridden that one.
I mention part of my system used random numbers before but it was rubbished by most/all
If you look at the DOW
The DOW 14000 next day it was 13851... I already had a signal my readings dropped from plus 133 to minus 7 next day the markets went up and the reading got worse.
The DOW @ 13851 was less than day 5 and day 6 prior 13907 and 13862 
But there was also other things I use were negative as well.
A quick example at the moment some moving averages the markets are below them but some of the random have turned positive. 
The Dow is currently 13469  day 5 and 6 prior 13358 and 13265
But I have lots of other things negative...but a lot can chamge in 1 day or they get worse.
NOTE... I use other random numbers as well and different ones have different values depending on its order of importance. 

I do the same thing with my gold index system I still use moving average but have random numbers. However different to the markets. I know in advance what numbers are needed to stay above. 
Also with random numbers can't do a chart (different time frames)

Do I like the DOW at the moment?  I do know that it is one day or two away from a rally and gold indexes are the same (YES BOTH still appear to be MOVING TOGETHER) I also know that a breakdown would more than likely bring a crash.

And if the Gold indexes crash the POG will go down as well

And as he stated (the site I sent you to) does it last 3 weeks or 1 year year plus for gold if he gets a signal.

For all that to happen easing by the FED?? a rate cut??
Is the US$ about to ..........................

Now I have confused you again????


----------



## Magdoran

bean said:


> That SKI system I posted links to I quite like and take notice.
> 
> Years ago when making programs for the market I did not have enough daily day for the US market.  so while working out technical analysis one of the things you look at is moving averages which are behind the 8 ball in moves so I started looking at random numbers so I could with those predict the market movements I then added the technical analysis to those and I developed it for a bear market out.  As I said the other day I went 100% back in monday morning because I had an oversold signal developed and it was showing oversold and it was not showing another signal I have, that I would not have purchased as it would have overridden that one.
> I mention part of my system used random numbers before but it was rubbished by most/all
> If you look at the DOW
> The DOW 14000 next day it was 13851... I already had a signal my readings dropped from plus 133 to minus 7 next day the markets went up and the reading got worse.
> The DOW @ 13851 was less than day 5 and day 6 prior 13907 and 13862
> But there was also other things I use were negative as well.
> A quick example at the moment some moving averages the markets are below them but some of the random have turned positive.
> The Dow is currently 13469  day 5 and 6 prior 13358 and 13265
> But I have lots of other things negative...but a lot can chamge in 1 day or they get worse.
> NOTE... I use other random numbers as well and different ones have different values depending on its order of importance.
> 
> I do the same thing with my gold index system I still use moving average but have random numbers. However different to the markets. I know in advance what numbers are needed to stay above.
> Also with random numbers can't do a chart (different time frames)
> 
> Do I like the DOW at the moment?  I do know that it is one day or two away from a rally and gold indexes are the same (YES BOTH still appear to be MOVING TOGETHER) I also know that a breakdown would more than likely bring a crash.
> 
> And if the Gold indexes crash the POG will go down as well
> 
> And as he stated (the site I sent you to) does it last 3 weeks or 1 year year plus for gold if he gets a signal.
> 
> For all that to happen easing by the FED?? a rate cut??
> Is the US$ about to ..........................
> 
> Now I have confused you again????



It is as clear as a thickshake!


I propose we create a “Rowan Atkinson” award for the most erudite poster on this thread.

Further, I nominate bean for the award for his fine efforts in his latest post that would even put Sir Humphrey Applebee to shame.

The clarity and eloquence is outstanding!

All in favour???


----------



## explod

No confusion at all, you have been good enough to put forward your thesis and I we now see where you are coming from.

If the fed were to ease rates the falling dollar will begin to fall much faster and that will most certainly give gold a solid lift up.   Not sure that they will though because those that they would want to help by this move have lost their credit rating by now anyway.  Will be interesting to see what pans out


----------



## ducati916

Magdoran said:


> It is as clear as a thickshake!
> 
> 
> I propose we create a “Rowan Atkinson” award for the most erudite poster on this thread.
> 
> Further, I nominate bean for the award for his fine efforts in his latest post that would even put Sir Humphrey Applebee to shame.
> 
> The clarity and eloquence is outstanding!
> 
> All in favour???




Magdoran;

I cannot support your nomination. Sir Humphrey, as an esteemed member of that fine institution, the Civil Service, had an astute knowledge of the system and what was required.

The same cannot be ascribed to the current analysis of gold from the nominee.

jog on
d998


----------



## Sean K

This youtube of Marc Faber is from March, but relevant today.

Faber


----------



## explod

I am going to give a newsletter a plug.   OOOOOOOOOooooohhhhhhhhhh you all say, well dont, this is for the gold bugs,  I have been a subscriber for about four years but apart from that have no association with them.

Have been down the track with Rivkin Report, Fat Profits etc., etc.

However the financial landscape panning out now has been asserted by this economist for years and he has been spot on.   When I first subscribed I was very wet behind the ears, not saying I know much now but believe me I knew nothing, except I was becoming suspiscious of a rout and sought some answers

worth checking "The Privateer"  capt@the-privateer.com

I do not subscibe to the full issue, only that part on the gold price and technical analysis re gold.   A big cost saving, but for those of a political bent the full one is excellent also


----------



## Magdoran

ducati916 said:


> Magdoran;
> 
> I cannot support your nomination. Sir Humphrey, as an esteemed member of that fine institution, the Civil Service, had an astute knowledge of the system and what was required.
> 
> The same cannot be ascribed to the current analysis of gold from the nominee.
> 
> jog on
> d998



Hahahahahaha…  Never let it be said Duc that anyone can get anything past you.  I think you missed your calling in the British Civil service.  You’d have made a great Sir Arnold Robinson!


Mag


----------



## Nicks

Ageo - "...Could you imagine if gold hit $800+ per ounce? People wouldnt buy because cost of living is rising and people cant afford to buy luxury goods."

Ageo this may be relevant in Australia, but the real consumer demand for jewellery is in India and China (half the worlds population) where the middle class is rising at quite a large rate. Truth be told I dont remember where I heard this but it makes sense, that this rising middle class is enjoying their increase in affluence and buying more and more jewellerey as a sign of their increasing affluence. If anyone can assist by posting info or data on this id' be grateful.

Secondly, as you should well know being in the jewellery business Ageo, that the markup on Gold jewellery is so high compared to the price of the raw gold, that an increase to US $1000 an ounce would only have a slight increase on the final retail price of gold jewellery.


----------



## explod

For other takes on the gold situation this small slice of a thread from Kitko is worth checking:


"A Star Rises!"

By David Vaughn      
Aug 6 2007 12:44PM

www.goldletterdv.com


Take a look below at gold’s Friday price action. Gold is so much like a spring. Every time it finds itself being pushed down it jumps right up again. What you are looking at below is the evidence of a true bull market in action.

If you are in a big hurry for gold to ascend the present ceiling price of 700 just hold on and wait time out. It continues to occur to me that there are basically two divided camps among the gold market. There are those who never invest a penny but bitch and moan about the direction of the gold market.  

Then there is another class who choose not to complain but instead quietly purchase quality gold and silver mining companies and make money. This game is about making money and there is a great deal being made even as we speak. The gold price is not crashing and, instead, is  doing quite well.  

Dave,

"While the carnage continues on Wall Street under the radar screens of most they're flocking to buy gold."  "I could go on and on with reasons to stock up on the metal during these typically weak summer months.  In order to get a better price you buy on weakness and only on down days.  You only have to look at the action in gold today, 08/01/07 to know that gold is being accumulated at lower levels.  GOT GOLD?"

EP    

And what about that perfect storm soon to come barreling around the corner?

Dale Doelling from Trends In Commodities warns 'The perfect storm is about to come raining down on us, and the precious metals will be the place to be in the coming year…' 'So ‘hold on to your gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper –these are the markets that will pay huge rewards' 

I like listening to what the professionals have to say because that is how I keep my bearings and stay on course.

Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard says 'For at least the next 50 to 75 years, prices for many natural resources are headed up.' 'If you don't already have a substantial share of your equity portfolio in energy resources, precious metals and base metals, do some switching into them now.' 

I know you have heard the following information below before but I think it is a good idea to hear it again and again.

Leading investment banks including Deutsche Bank, Barclays Capital, Scotia Mocatta, Standard Bank PLC, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs are all forecasting higher gold prices. 

And the warning below is already coming true today as we speak and converse.

Robert McTeer, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas warns '...There will be a crisis that will result in rapidly rising interest rates and a rapidly depreciating dollar that will be very disruptive.' 

Presently we are witnessing an alarming deterioration in the US Dollar that has just begun in earnest in the past year or so.  In all of history when any country has reached the level of debt the US has reached there has always been a currency collapse. The paper house of cards built out of the US dollar is beginning to come tumbling down.

Foreigners & professionals recognize this inescapable fact, but not the average man on the street. The story behind gold is the plunging US dollar. What we are presently witnessing is the slow break down of the US financial order.  

David:

"Of course the price should be dramatically higher, but you have to expect this pressure to keep the prices from rising so fast from those that have an agenda to show stability."

Chuck G.

During the last major gold bull market between 1970 to 1980 it was not unusual to see gold and silver mining stocks often climb from as low as a dime to over a 100 dollars a share. 

What star do I make reference to rising? A golden star of course. Slowly as the wheels of time turn gold is becoming more and more a natural and necessary part of an investor’s portfolio. My only complaint for gold is that I personally believe the price climbed too quickly after surmounting 500 in late 2005.  

I suppose I could beat my head against a wall and there would still be these non investors who complain about the direction gold is headed in. My primary concern, though, is the direction of quality gold and silver stocks that will do well regardless of the price of gold.  

And here is really where the real rub is. Too many investors have bought low quality gold and silver shares that are going no where and just sitting in stationary limbo. And everyone knows that a rising tide lifts all boats in the harbor.  But if I were you I would trade those worthless shares now for the quality winners.  

Don’t pick your gold stocks via a dart thrown against the wall. There are excellent companies out there worth owning and you need to do an analysis to see if the shares you are holding are really worth hanging on to. If you are complaining about the gold price you probably own the wrong gold and silver shares. And how goes the housing market fiasco?

"U.S. trouble extends to global markets" "The worsening U.S. credit crunch is beginning to cast an ominous shadow. Markets from London to Shanghai dipped Wednesday amid worries that problems that began with subprime mortgages — loans to borrowers with less-than-stellar credit — in the U.S. housing market are infecting other assets." "This will increasingly become a global phenomenon. … We're now seeing contagion to other financial markets…"  “The U.S. credit crunch, which began with defaulting subprime mortgages before hitting securities linked to those loans, could spread further: Foreigners holding mortgage-backed securities could suffer major losses in the ongoing market downdraft." "Anecdotal evidence suggests that overseas investors and hedge funds have significant exposure to the riskier" types of these investments, said an International Monetary Fund report in April." "We really are just at the beginning of this," says Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute." "Either country could be rocked if those investors are forced into a fire sale to cover their losses at home." 

What is sad is that we have not even begun to see the carnage in the housing industry yet.  It will probably begin to really peak next summer in 2008.

Hi David, 

“The "dead cat bounce" in the housing industry is over…" "We are currently in another "dead cat bounce" in the USD, which will unwind rather quickly." "I also predict the USD dropping below 80 shortly…"  "All the above conditions are extremely PM BULLISH!!”   

Anthony S.      

Gold Letter, Inc. reviews gold, silver, uranium and other resource stocks under valued and poised to rise in this time of increased demand for all resources. Natural resources and related contrarian stocks will only escalate in value as the world continues to experience unprecedented population growth. Gold Letter’s 10 best performing stocks are up over 2,000% and GL’s top 55 performing stocks are up over 500%. Close to 90% of all Gold Letter's recommendations since inception in January, 2003 are up over 250%. GL charts are computer generated and updated every hour while markets are open.  

Click here to order Gold Letter

"The Worldwatch Institute, an organization that focuses on environmental, social and economic trends, says the current rate of global demand for resources is unsustainable." 

Send me an email!  

David Vaughn
Gold Letter, Inc.
David4054@charter.net

8-6-2007


----------



## ducati916

Jewellery demand is price sensitive. As price rises, demand falls, as price falls, demand rises.

The driver behind the price of gold is *investment* demand. Back on page 12 odd of this thread I identified ETF's as one [if not the major] driver of gold price appreciation.

Investors have been leaving gold, ETF selling of the physical, to balance their NAV's has been a major factor in the stagnating price. The Carry Trade, global liquidity, asset price inflation, were the drivers of the rising price of gold. As these [if these] factors are removed, the price of gold will fall back to lower [inflation adjusted] value figures circa $300-$400oz

Check out the data;


----------



## Ageo

Nicks said:


> Secondly, as you should well know being in the jewellery business Ageo, that the markup on Gold jewellery is so high compared to the price of the raw gold, that an increase to US $1000 an ounce would only have a slight increase on the final retail price of gold jewellery.




hehe im jumping back and forward from this thread and the other. 

Ok to answer your question lets go through the process of when i buy gold (giving away the tricks and secrets) 

We buy the spot price for raw gold that day so thats ok. Then we send it to be worked on and for quality workmanship in Italy it costs a bit (anything from 0.50Euro to 8 Euro of labour per gram in weight per item). Then We need to ship it over here, so you need shipping costs, insurance and a few other things. Once it gets here you need to pay 15% (10% gst, 5% duty) before they release the goods from customs. Now we mark up our little margin to sell to the retail shop and then finally the retail shop will make their mark up.

So in turn if gold increased to say $900 p/o that would mean an almost 30% increase in price. What your forgetting is even thow the retail stores mark up the prices say anywhere from 100% - 400% (when they get it from us) they need to do that in order to cover their expenses (rent, fixures, fittings etc...) example 1 of our customers at westfields miranda pays $150,000 p/a just in rent. Thats over $10,000p/m just to cover the rent! now with 15 or so jewellery shops in their that means the competition is even harder, couple this with gold prices increasing and then you finally realise people start to question buying luxury goods. And let me assure you this is happening even in India and China (i know ive been there and seen it) The only advantage those countries have is cheap cheap labour.

Im just telling you what im seeing but i hope your right and price goes up as i have 10kgs+ worth of gold waiting to benefit in a rise in gold price.


----------



## explod

Quote:
"Investors have been leaving gold, ETF selling of the physical, to balance their NAV's has been a major factor in the stagnating price. The Carry Trade, global liquidity, asset price inflation, were the drivers of the rising price of gold. As these [if these] factors are removed, the price of gold will fall back to lower [inflation adjusted] value figures circa $300-$400oz"....  end Quote

Dont' get the rationale here.    In fact in the last month the gold price has slipped down due to liquidation in the carry trade and to meet margin calls.   In the face of that gold has shown considerable resilliance and as more of the investment community realise this, gold will in fact go in the opposite direction as against money (the promise), gold has intrinsic value.


----------



## ducati916

*explod*

It's very simple, the investment value is the price adjusted for inflation.
Anything in excess of that is the speculative component.

With the unprecedented credit expansion, the price of gold appreciated via unbridled speculation.

One major contributor to that was the creation of at least 2 Gold ETF's.
They hold the physical [adjusting via the Futures market] their holdings.
These were sold to [amongst others] institutions that can not hold Futures.
The rising price attracted trend following speculators. 
As speculators sell [or buy] gold ETF's, so the NAV is adjusted.

Gold will rise or fall based on speculation, as the inflationary value is circa $3000z-$400oz thus there will be little fundamental support till that price level.

If you are looking at gold as an investment, viz. long term hold as a hedge against fiat inflation, you should look to buy at lower than current prices, if you are speculating, better check your charts.

jog on
d998


----------



## doctorj

ducati916 said:


> Gold will rise or fall based on speculation, as the inflationary value is circa $3000z-$400oz thus there will be little fundamental support till that price level.



I'm guessing you meant $300oz, rather than $3000z  How do you arrive at these figures duc?


----------



## ducati916

doctorj said:


> I'm guessing you meant $300oz, rather than $3000z  How do you arrive at these figures duc?




Simply take the long term inflation rate, I used 3.5%, the starting price of Gold when it was still de facto *money* and calculate over the time period.

Gold @ $20.67oz in 1930 @ 3.5% inflation = $292.24 [as an example]
Add your own figures for inflation if you don't agree with 3.5% 

So actually my figures were a bit generous, they should be $200oz-$300oz for investment value, but, I was going on memory, always a mistake.

jog on
d998


----------



## Sean K

ducati916 said:


> Simply take the long term inflation rate, I used 3.5%, the starting price of Gold when it was still de facto *money* and calculate over the time period.



But you have to assume that there is no supply/demand effect on POG to agree with this. I would have assumed demand has increased over the past few years and will continue to in Chindia, while supply in dropping. Yes, I know there's tons of it in central banks but it's regulated, and while USD falls and becomes less valuable, won't gold ,and/or Euro/pounds, be purchased as a proxy increasing demand further.


----------



## ducati916

kennas said:


> But you have to assume that there is no supply/demand effect on POG to agree with this. I would have assumed demand has increased over the past few years and will continue to in Chindia, while supply in dropping. Yes, I know there's tons of it in central banks but it's regulated, and while USD falls and becomes less valuable, won't gold ,and/or Euro/pounds, be purchased as a proxy increasing demand further.





No not really as the most important supply/demand curve to be mindful of is the *investment* supply/demand curve.

*Investment* includes in this definition *speculation*.
Periodically due to wars, oil shocks, etc, speculators pile into gold/silver etc and drive the price above [or below] its inflationary investment value.

We are in such a period now, with all assets, housing, stocks, commodities, currencies, artwork, etc.

As the credit cycle tightens, which it currently is, the danger becomes not inflation, or hyperinflation, but.......DEFLATION....

That again is the great danger from the unbridaled credit expansion [debt]
The earnings simply do not exist to service the current level of debt.

Gold, is not immune to deflation, in fact, it is as vulnerable as any other asset, and that is why predictions of $3000oz are just nonsense.

Hyperinflation is not currently the problem in the developed world [Zimbabwe, yes] thus, the inflation rate, while certainly higher than advertised, is nowhere near high enough to drive gold to $3000oz, nor $1000oz

The cycle I suspect has peaked now anyway. Therefore, gold, is in all probability on the way down, with volatility certainly, but, $730oz looks to be this cycles high point.

Remember, the late 1970's early 1980's had far higher *official* inflation than we have had this cycle.

This cycle has been about credit expansion, which is not monetary inflation in the same way.

jog on
d998


----------



## bean

_After laying out his compelling case for a deflationary depression, Prechter explains why gold and silver will not serve as safe havens for the bloodbath he envisions. In the next few paragraphs, we will clearly and concisely explain why Prechter's argument is flawed and why gold and silver should indeed be big winners in any upcoming deflation.
_

The article
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge010405.html

I also remember Pretcher and other gold bears saying when gold moved from US$250 it would not get to US 300 and they have saidall the way up to its current value


----------



## Sean K

ducati916 said:


> No not really as the most important supply/demand curve to be mindful of is the *investment* supply/demand curve.
> 
> *Investment* includes in this definition *speculation*.
> 
> jog on
> d998



You're arguing that 'normal' supply and demand factors do not effect the price of gold, and the only factor that drives the price of gold above an inflationary rate is speculation?


----------



## Pommiegranite

ducati916 said:


> Simply take the long term inflation rate, I used 3.5%, the starting price of Gold when it was still de facto *money* and calculate over the time period.
> 
> Gold @ $20.67oz in 1930 @ 3.5% inflation = $292.24 [as an example]
> Add your own figures for inflation if you don't agree with 3.5%
> 
> So actually my figures were a bit generous, they should be $200oz-$300oz for investment value, but, I was going on memory, always a mistake.
> 
> jog on
> d998




In 1850 the POG was $18.93oz. Using the same inflation rate which you are using of 3.5% per annum, this gives us a current POG of $4195oz.

Just goes to show that statistics can be skewed any which way you want.


----------



## professor_frink

bean said:


> _After laying out his compelling case for a deflationary depression, Prechter explains why gold and silver will not serve as safe havens for the bloodbath he envisions. In the next few paragraphs, we will clearly and concisely explain why Prechter's argument is flawed and why gold and silver should indeed be big winners in any upcoming deflation.
> _
> 
> The article
> http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge010405.html
> 
> I also remember Pretcher and other gold bears saying when gold moved from US$250 it would not get to US 300 and they have saidall the way up to its current value




Pretcher is also calling for the DOW to go under 400(no I didn't leave a zero out).


----------



## explod

professor_frink said:


> Pretcher is also calling for the DOW to go under 400(no I didn't leave a zero out).




Who knows, a number of other commentators are suggesting a Dow drop of 90% and that the economic fundamentals are worse than 1929, all speculation, but I am holding onto my seatbelt.

Studying the thoughts of others helps us be aware, books or whatever, a fixed mindset is the real doom


----------



## ducati916

Pommiegranite said:


> In 1850 the POG was $18.93oz. Using the same inflation rate which you are using of 3.5% per annum, this gives us a current POG of $4195oz.
> 
> Just goes to show that statistics can be skewed any which way you want.




Unfortunately the correct inflation rate from 1850 is 2.1%
When you use the correct data, the price of gold calculates to $494.52oz
Devil's in the details.

Thus, you come out in the ballpark of lower prices for gold currently.
Of course the other issue is that really the correct time frame to use is really when fiat currencies floated free.

I chose 1930 for a reason, as both the US & UK went off the gold standard through the depression and revalued [repegged] later.

Or, in 1971 when Nixon closed the Gold window. Inflation from 1971 was 4.7% thus the investment value of gold = $35.80 @ 4.7% = $187.05

Which rather neatly falls into my investment valuation range.

jog on
d998


----------



## professor_frink

explod said:


> Who knows, a number of other commentators are suggesting a Dow drop of 90% and that the economic fundamentals are worse than 1929, all speculation, but I am holding onto my seatbelt.
> 
> Studying the thoughts of others helps us be aware, books or whatever, a fixed mindset is the real doom




Who else is calling for this kind of move? I hadn't heard of any actually agreeing with him

Calling for a 97% drop seems a bit crazy for my liking


----------



## ducati916

kennas said:


> You're arguing that 'normal' supply and demand factors do not effect the price of gold, and the only factor that drives the price of gold above an inflationary rate is speculation?




Yes, pretty much.
Simply because lower prices are in everyones interest, no-one particularly wants to chase price higher.

The exception are speculators, who are not worried about value, just trading the trend [greater fool theory]

On the supply side, low prices restrict production, thus you get an equilibrium range, save as stated when the traders etc jump in.

jog on
d998


----------



## wavepicker

professor_frink said:


> Who else is calling for this kind of move? I hadn't heard of any actually agreeing with him
> 
> Calling for a 97% drop seems a bit crazy for my liking





I have been following Prechters work for years and he has made some great calls. He has also made some not so good ones either. To this day he makes great calls incuding this very last correction we just had. He was a great trader in his younger days. Undoubtedly these were his strengths

Where I think he has fallen over recently is his shift to catering for long term insitutional clients. Making long term forecasts is a very difficult business . Trying to forecast the time of deflationary depression given that we have had 200 years of market data behind can be next to impossible due to the resolution. Although his timing was been off the mark in trying to do so, ultimately he will be proven correct, but it's of where and when?

As for his forecast for the DJIA to move below 400, yes that does sound a tad unrealistic!!  But certainly in a bear maket move back to 7000 is plausible.  But one needs to also stay open minded too as earlier bear markets have certainly wiped off huge stock market gains. ie The crash of 29, crash of 87, and more recently the Nikkei 225 collapsing from 40000 to 8000 and the Nasdaq form 5350 to 1250!! The market can do what it wants when it wants.

Cheers


----------



## explod

ducati916 said:


> Unfortunately the correct inflation rate from 1850 is 2.1%
> When you use the correct data, the price of gold calculates to $494.52oz
> Devil's in the details.
> 
> Thus, you come out in the ballpark of lower prices for gold currently.
> Of course the other issue is that really the correct time frame to use is really when fiat currencies floated free.
> 
> I chose 1930 for a reason, as both the US & UK went off the gold standard through the depression and revalued [repegged] later.
> 
> Or, in 1971 when Nixon closed the Gold window. Inflation from 1971 was 4.7% thus the investment value of gold = $35.80 @ 4.7% = $187.05
> 
> Which rather neatly falls into my investment valuation range.
> 
> jog on
> d998




Yes in 1971 gold was $35.80,  nine years later it peaked for a day over $900, a ratio of about 25 to 1.    In 1999 to 2001 gold bottomed at US$260 per ounce.   Since that time it has risen to the current $670.   Now if some of the deep thinking pundits are at all correct and that the coming problems with the currencies and markets are indeed worse than 1929/33 then what could happen is big time gold.   I am not one to ramp things up but just on the scenario of 1971/80 at 25 to 1 from $260 and ounce we would have (some could say conservative) a price of around $6500 an ounce.

The 1971 to 80 scenario was nine years in the making,  in our current scenario we are at 6 years.   Now we all know that things are different each time, but it is something to ponder indeed.   

In all this I am not disagreeing with anyone, just my opinion.

But I am long gold thank you


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Prepare for gold to keep heading sideways IMO. Jewellery demand from India can only sneak up and the world economy is flat enough that there will not be currency swap for a gold sit. I sold gold stocks when I made 20% in 6 months. Could have made that 40 but profit is profit. There are better commodities at this time. I might get back into gold next year.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Well gold bulls,

What's your take on the short term now?

The best analysis in this thread goes to Wavepicker Hands down. 

Gold is a sideways mess until it can break 700 and use it as support.

Good trading.


----------



## numbercruncher

Short term will be flat ....

But once the sheeple work out their greenbacks are backed by thin air?


----------



## bean

The POG and US gold indexes
A date for the bottom

Magdoran
First why did I not put a date and number for S&P 500

The worst month for Indexes on the wall street is September
But (I had to check this because I was unsure whether August/september) August was worst lately with July (last 17 18 years)
When Fed  rates meeting markets ‘may’ form a top short/mediun or longterm generally within two to three weeks of the meeting so trading days 11-15 prior
(a bit where the say… about markets have already factored the outcome in)

Your date was trading day number 13 right in the middle.  
With your
“developed  sophisticated time cycle approach,”

So why would I pick another date when the greatest odds were arround the date you factored in.

But  to your credit you picked the date 

So that brings me to the date for gold.  
My answer to your question you ask me when the Dow was about 3% from its top (Is that a crash in your view) In fact today it is still only 5% from its top!!!

So you will have to wait a bit longer.

For interest I exited yesterday and today.  Am I bullish on Gold yes why would’nt I be but that doesn’t stop me being short to medium term bearish If I have to.
Gold Indexes following the markets well they still are.  POG will follow the indexes.
Before you pick one bit out and say one did one…one did the other 
Look at the trend over a few day period
One day when??? We will see them free.


----------



## Bush Trader

First Gold Selling by central banks, now major currency injections into the system to insure liquidity remains intact.  If vaults continue to open there is only one direction for the Gold price to go, what other security will there be at the end of the day?  Gold my friends - Gold, there will be pressure as people have to sell to cover positions, and then............

In a typical banker's day money will be constantly lent and borrowed between banks and financial institutions as they go about their business. If suddenly no one will lend to anyone, liquidity is frozen and the whole system faces collapse.

This is exactly one reason why central banks exist - to ensure liquidity in the banking system. When a central bank "raises" or "lowers" the cash rate, all it is actually doing is indicating the rate at which it would like to see daily business being transacted. If there is deemed to be too much money in the system, risking runaway economic growth and inflation, the bank will raise its preferred target. The higher the cost of money, the more business will slow. And the same works in reverse. The ECB had recently raised its target rate to 4.0%.

In order to ensure borrowing and lending is actually transacted at the target rate, a central bank will conduct what are known as "open market operations". Daily the bank will either inject its own reserves into the system, or pull money out. Such moves are required when the rates move incrementally above or below the target rate. Usually such operations are orderly and of little consequence. Various banks will go to the central bank "window" and deal directly with the central bank rather than a competitor. 

The ECB has never before, in its existence, said "how much do you want". As soon as the word went out, 49 banks had lined up at the window. They extracted a total of 94.8 billion euros. The only other time the ECB has made such a large injection was the day after 9/11. But in that case it only injected 69 billion euros. While daily fluctuations away from the target cash rate are normally very marginal, rates yesterday had reached a full 68 basis points above the target. A liquidity squeeze was underway. This was enough for the ECB to open the vault.

The New York Federal Reserve injected US$24 billion into the system - twice the normal daily average. But in an unusual move, the NY Fed opened its window fifteen minutes earlier than usual. While president Bush called a hasty press conference to assure Americans there was plenty of liquidity in the system, the Fed remained silent. Given Ben Bernanke had only two days earlier kept the cash rate steady, and suggested intervention would not be necessary, it is apparent the Fed is not about to go into full crisis-fighting mode.

The Bank of Japan injected US$8.5 billion into its system yesterday. Analysts are now suggesting that an increase to Japan's current 0.5% cash rate that was largely expected this month may not happen. Already the yen has appreciated markedly against the US dollar as carry trade unwinding moves into a second phase.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also added twice its usual amount of funds into its system this morning, or close to A$5 billion. Treasurer Peter Costello again pushed the line that Australia had minimal exposure to the US subprime mortgage market. While this may well be the case, it hasn't stopped credit securities everywhere being impossible to sell, and for credit spreads to widen even in prime paper. 

So peoples what's your take?

Cheers'


BT

PS Bean - you should have more to drink, however I not sure if it shouldn't be water


----------



## Sean K

Gold up 13 bucks amongst the blood......punters making the move now? Too early to tell perhaps.

I noticed a few goldies holding up relatively well yesterday until a late sell off.  



> *Gold, Silver Gain as Investors Seek Haven From Subprime Losses*
> 
> By Pham-Duy Nguyen
> 
> Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver rose in New York as investors sought a haven from potential losses tied to the U.S. subprime-mortgage collapse.
> 
> Stocks dropped in Europe and Asia after central banks around the world added billions of dollars to the global financial system to help meet demand for cash. Before today, gold had risen 5.5 percent this year after six annual gains.
> 
> ``People are going to the safest thing they can get,'' said Marty McNeill, a trader at R.F. Lafferty Inc. in New York. ``Gold is a safe haven at this point.''


----------



## Bush Trader

This describes in laymans terms what many of us have thought for some time, only the percentages and volume of gold that the Chinese may have to purchase has been quantified.

Cheers


Source: China Economic Review

A movement into the gold market is seen as a means of diversifying China’s US dollar holdings 

As the US dollar weakens, China’s stock of dollars and dollar-denominated debt is falling in value. Unwilling to be caught holding the bag, bankers have been seeking ways to reduce their risk. In any other currency regime, this rebalancing would be simple: swap dollars on the open market. But Beijing’s restricted system forbids this. 

China’s export-dependent economy thrives on an artificially strong dollar and a relatively weak yuan. Lack of faith on the part of the world’s largest buyer of dollars could trigger a run against the US currency and hurt China’s export sector. 

Diversification demands
Local economists have seen the writing on the wall and are calling on the government to identify alternatives. One of them is gold. 

“More gold reserves will help the government prevent risks and handle emergencies in case of future possible turbulence in the international political and economic situation,” said Yan Tanling, a researcher at the Bank of China. 

Gold currently accounts for 1.3% of China’s foreign currency reserves, according to the Beijing Gold Economy Development Research Center. For some years now, experts have been petitioning the central bank to increase this from 3 to 5% of reserves. Such a move would bring China’s gold holdings more in line with global averages. 

To do this, China would have to lay its hands on an additional 2,500 tons of gold at today’s prices – an amount equal to nearly a quarter of America’s own mammoth reserves. 

“It’s impossible to do something like that over a short period of time,” said Paul Walker, head of the World Gold Council, an advocacy group. 

There may also be supply issues. Bill Murphy of LeMetropole CafÃ©, a gold-industry think tank, said the current gold market would be hard-pressed to meet the needs of a Chinese buying binge. 

“There is no way the Chinese could buy anywhere near that amount of gold without sending the gold price bonkers.” 
That is, unless China can leverage its own domestic gold resources to support its reserve rebalancing. Several prominent mining firms made share offerings this year as part of efforts to bring forward consolidation in the sector.  

Or purchase gold producing assets off shore?


----------



## noirua

Gold looks set to move sideways in US$ terms. This may well advantage Aussie home grown mine gold producers as the US$ recovers. US interest rates look set to move gradually lower.


----------



## Bush Trader

noirua said:


> Gold looks set to move sideways in US$ terms. This may well advantage Aussie home grown mine gold producers as the US$ recovers. US interest rates look set to move gradually lower.




If US interest rates fall, won't their $US also fall?  The $AUS always ralleys prior to an expected interest rate rise.  This is Eco 101 - monetary policy is it not?


Cheers

BT


----------



## explod

noirua said:


> Gold looks set to move sideways in US$ terms. This may well advantage Aussie home grown mine gold producers as the US$ recovers. US interest rates look set to move gradually lower.




Why do you say that gold looks set to move sideways.    You also made a similar statement a couple of days ago on another thread.    You have done so without qualification on both occasions.

In the last five years the US dollar has moved opposite to gold and there is every indication that this will continue.   If the US dollar is going to go down as you suggest then surely gold will go up


----------



## wavepicker

I know the US Dollar Index has been trending down this year, but if one looks at the trend down it has been a real struggle compared to it's earlier trends down in the last 7 years.  I think this pattern is and Ending Diagonal in EW parlance. These patterns subdivide into 3 wave structures.

The ED does not appear complete but is approaching termination. If one draws 2 trendlines forming a trendchannel it can be seen that these 2 trendlines converge. On occasion the last wave of the ED resolves itself(in this case down) with a "throwover" or break of the lower trendline. This is usually accompanied by high volume and is a sign that that the pattern is coming to an end. At this stage cannot tell when the ED will end but is should be coming up.  So I am looking for 2 possible scenarios here:-

A sharp upward reversal following termination of the ED OR a sharp move down (a throwever) followed by a sharp reversal. 

The US Dollar Index is not ready to collapse ATM in my opinion


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So the battle continues.....

It's pretty obvious the plunge protection team has fired both barrells of the financial shotgun this week to keep the fiat currency jalopy on the road, with both Helicopter Ben & Cowboy Hank riding out front of the central bank cartel.
There's only one problem - it didn't work. Dumping several tonnes of gold onto the market while simultaneously flooding the world with even more US dollars, or whatever currency looks vulnerable, and the gold price actually went up.
The lines have been drawn at $688 gold and 80 US dollar index, and neither shall be breached, if the US fed has any say in the matter. Getting close to the big disconnect. Are the central banks gold vault's empty already?


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> I know the US Dollar Index has been trending down this year, but if one looks at the trend down it has been a real struggle compared to it's earlier trends down in the last 7 years.  I think this pattern is and Ending Diagonal in EW parlance. These patterns subdivide into 3 wave structures.
> 
> The ED does not appear complete but is approaching termination. If one draws 2 trendlines forming a trendchannel it can be seen that these 2 trendlines converge. On occasion the last wave of the ED resolves itself(in this case down) with a "throwover" or break of the lower trendline. This is usually accompanied by high volume and is a sign that that the pattern is coming to an end. At this stage cannot tell when the ED will end but is should be coming up.  So I am looking for 2 possible scenarios here:-
> 
> A sharp upward reversal following termination of the ED OR a sharp move down (a throwever) followed by a sharp reversal.
> 
> The US Dollar Index is not ready to collapse ATM in my opinion




On the contrary the USD/INDEX  has been in a strong downward channed for all of 07.   It is at the bottom of the channel now and could be expected to go to the top of this channel to say 81.05 before it continues downward.  On the other hand in the last few weeks it has almost breached the 80 mark, often it takes three attempts to break support.  This too is a very likely scenario.    The fact that gold rallied so strongly late Friday in spite of Central Bank sell offs, indicates a fear in the general investment community that the dollar may break through this support and begin to collapse.

However the trading begins tomorrow and we will see


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> The fact that gold rallied so strongly late Friday in spite of Central Bank sell offs, indicates a fear in the general investment community that the dollar may break through this support and begin to collapse.
> 
> However the trading begins tomorrow and we will see





Explod,

The USD has trended down for all of 07, no one is denying this. But it has been a creeping/struggling  trend down. In so far at the USD crashing, I think it is fair to say, it's already crashed from it's levels of the year 1999. There is a chance the foreign currencies may hang in there into next year, but I think the USD will make surprising bounce next year. As for Gold, let's see what happens, but it's been in a range for 1.5 years now and until it shows signs of breaking out of it, I am reluctant to do anything long or short at present.

Cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Explod,
> 
> The USD has trended down for all of 07, no one is denying this. But it has been a creeping/struggling  trend down. In so far at the USD crashing, I think it is fair to say, it's already crashed from it's levels of the year 1999. There is a chance the foreign currencies may hang in there into next year, but I think the USD will make surprising bounce next year. As for Gold, let's see what happens, but it's been in a range for 1.5 years now and until it shows signs of breaking out of it, I am reluctant to do anything long or short at present.
> 
> Cheers





Not suggesting any action.   It is all forming a tight range.  Particularly gold which has to break out of the pennant from mid 06 soon.   My point I suppose from a tech perpective is that we cannot be pick the direction.   The fundamentals suggest that the debt crises of the US may only be just getting underway.  If that is the case then the dollar will be at risk if the Fed have to reduce rates for a rescue


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> There is a chance the foreign currencies may hang in there into next year, but I think the USD will make surprising bounce next year.
> Cheers




wavepicker,
I assume this is from a TA perspective, but I can't see any fundamental reason for a bounce in the $US on the horizon. If you factor in that the US housing bust will continue into a recession (watch the home builders reports to come), or worse?, why would anybody want a US dollar. 
A lot of countries are primed to transfer to the Euro at a moments notice, as their $US investments have tanked over the years.

The crux of the whole problem is excess liquidity. Until such a time as the excess is purged (recession?) there looks to be downward pressure on the US dollar. That is, if market forces were allowed a free hand, but as witnessed this week, the US Fed is putting up a fight to the end maybe. How much more money can they prime before they have to resort to the last resort - lowering interest rates? 

Faberism - 'the US Dollar is doomed'.


----------



## bean

Yes at the moment we have this relationship between the US$ and Gold
One up one down?
When the markets fall everyone into bonds which help to strengthen the US$ .  Also at the moment market weakness the Gold indicies are sort of following the market early on friday POG was well up yet the gold indicies one was just positive are the other negative. 
So any downturn in the market it still appears as though the gold indicies will follow the market which in turn will pull the POG down.
*At some stage during the downturn POG will actually start to act like a currency/a safe haven* 
Then at that stage will the US$ finally collapse? 
People have talk about the Euro, but look at Euro central banks dumping money as well.  Gold and also the Euro will be the alternative to the US$.
And the POG will rise, 
Deflation...posiblity but for POG it will not be regarded as a commodity at that stage but an alternate currency.  IMO.


----------



## noirua

explod said:


> Why do you say that gold looks set to move sideways.    You also made a similar statement a couple of days ago on another thread.    You have done so without qualification on both occasions.
> 
> In the last five years the US dollar has moved opposite to gold and there is every indication that this will continue.   If the US dollar is going to go down as you suggest then surely gold will go up





hi, On this occasion we have quite a lot of worries in markets and the weakness of the U.S. currency ( the Yen is weaker, and Hong Kong$ as weak, due to its link to the US$  ) may well be coming to an end. Gold should therefore remain around current levels despite an improving US$. Gold has infact fallen in value over the last year or so whilst the US$ continued down and this may well be corrected; That is we may see a stronger US$ with gold remaining steady.

The last five years has seen a reversal of a long Bear market in Gold and most of that whilst the US$ sank. Gold left the gold standard guarantee as long ago as 1971 and this roughly coincided with the oil crisis. (oil jumped from $2 per barrel to $10 per barrel). I make this point only to emphasize that what goes on in the world outside America is as equally important to gold as the strength of the US$. The strength of the currency where we reside or where a company resides, has as much importance as well.


----------



## explod

noirua said:


> hi, On this occasion we have quite a lot of worries in markets and the weakness of the U.S. currency ( the Yen is weaker, and Hong Kong$ as weak, due to its link to the US$  ) may well be coming to an end. Gold should therefore remain around current levels despite an improving US$. Gold has infact fallen in value over the last year or so whilst the US$ continued down and this may well be corrected; That is we may see a stronger US$ with gold remaining steady.
> 
> The last five years has seen a reversal of a long Bear market in Gold and most of that whilst the US$ sank. Gold left the gold standard guarantee as long ago as 1971 and this roughly coincided with the oil crisis. (oil jumped from $2 per barrel to $10 per barrel). I make this point only to emphasize that what goes on in the world outside America is as equally important to gold as the strength of the US$. The strength of the currency where we reside or where a company resides, has as much importance as well.




OK, and it is good to have your reasoning.    Yes gold hit a peak mid 2006 however the technicals would suggest that the uptend from 2001 has not been breached.   The US dollar has been the world reserve currency and the pool of dollars held offshore so large that any large move away from it will cause massive problems.  At the moment it is away from US debt paper.  I am not an economist or any expert but the people moving from dollars will push up Euros, Crona etc etc, but gold also.  I would be keen to hear from others on this last point.


----------



## explod

Further to the last, it has occurred to me that initially there could be a flight to US dollars due to its role as the world reserve currency, so you are probably right Noirua.   

Recently for example it was announced in the US that property had had its first actual value decline in 70 years.   Now this is more than three generations.  It is outside living experience.  People are not initially going to know what to do.  With markets and debt looking bad the first instinct will be to go for cash into what has become known for at least thirty odd years as the safest currency, the US dollar.   So you could be right. the dollar may gain some strength for awhile.  But I think when people realise that the US dollar is backed by huge debt and few assets then gold will come into the fore after that.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Further to the last, it has occurred to me that initially there could be a flight to US dollars due to its role as the world reserve currency, so you are probably right Noirua.
> 
> Recently for example it was announced in the US that property had had its first actual value decline in 70 years.   Now this is more than three generations.  It is outside living experience.  People are not initially going to know what to do.  With markets and debt looking bad the first instinct will be to go for cash into what has become known for at least thirty odd years as the safest currency, the US dollar.   So you could be right. the dollar may gain some strength for awhile.  But I think when people realise that the US dollar is backed by huge debt and few assets then gold will come into the fore after that.



So, do you think the long term smart money is going to gold now, or waits till some dust settles, or an upward trend in POG? 

POG seems to be in an upward trend now to me. Long term, medium term, and short term.

Of course, breaking 690 ish seems important. Maybe that's an understatement.


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> wavepicker,
> I assume this is from a TA perspective, but I can't see any fundamental reason for a bounce in the $US on the horizon. If you factor in that the US housing bust will continue into a recession (watch the home builders reports to come), or worse?, why would anybody want a US dollar.
> A lot of countries are primed to transfer to the Euro at a moments notice, as their $US investments have tanked over the years.
> 
> The crux of the whole problem is excess liquidity. Until such a time as the excess is purged (recession?) there looks to be downward pressure on the US dollar. That is, if market forces were allowed a free hand, but as witnessed this week, the US Fed is putting up a fight to the end maybe. How much more money can they prime before they have to resort to the last resort - lowering interest rates?
> 
> Faberism - 'the US Dollar is doomed'.




Hello Uncle,

Fully understand the fundamental situation with regard to the US buckaroo. But quite often markets tend to do what is not logical, especially when it comes to fundamentals in the short to medium term. Over the longer term, the fundamental argument is certainly more compelling. For what short to medium term reason are commodities currently reversing??  Why is the Aussies market having such a savage correction? After all economy is good, very low unemployment, great company profits….. blah, blah, blah?? Simple, the short/medium terms fundamentals lag the market not lead it.

I like most other believes the USD is in a secular bear trend, but markets don’t in most cases don’t like traveling with the speed of an express elevator either up or down. They have countertrends, sometimes very deep ones and sometimes short ones. Just have a look at this market, it has been pummeled into the ground for the last 7 years, what are the chances it’s going to collapse from here given it has already come down 33%?? If anything further downside will be limited in the medium term. Over the longer term a continued decline is more realistic.


Assuming the stock market continues to tank it, what will happen to the dollar??  Well let’s have longer term look at it see what happened in 1987 for example (not that this is entirely a valid comparison but it’s the only instance I could find). After 87, the USD against a basket of currencies fell for a good year and then rallied hard. In some currencies this was a countertrend, in others like AUSUSD it was a full on bear. Why did the USD rally, after all the US was in the early stages of recession?  Could it be that the USD will still be the currency of choice INITIALLY if the markets continue to tank it?

Then we have the interest rate cycle. This appears to have bottomed in late 2002; the move of the last 20 years appears to have been a nice abc correction. So interest rates could be double digits again within 5 years.

The pattern in the USD Index appears to be an Ending Diagonal or struggling trend down. The fact that it has struggled down NEAR a previous support level has to catch ones eye. These can resolve 2 possible ways

-Wave 5 of the ED can turn into a brief but sudden move down or a “throwover” of the lower of 2 converging trendlines in this current trend own. This is usually done on high volume and often signals exhaustion and a fast reversal

-Wave 5 could terminate above/close  the lower trend line in which case we get an abrupt reversal.

Once again the USD Ending Diagonal appears incomplete, so there is still the need for more downside here, but limited. In terms of time this may take the rest of the year. I have looked at the AUDUSD and I think it will consolidate and hold on before topping next year some time-possibly in the middle to second half of the year.

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Excellent post Wavepicker


----------



## wavepicker

Trade_It said:


> Excellent post Wavepicker




Thanks Joseph, I suppose what it all boils down to is that we should look for good trending markets either up or down to trade. Precious metals have been stuck in a range for 1.5 years and until they show signs of doing otherwise then let's focus on other markets that are trending nicely. 

Unless you are in for the long haul ofcourse!!


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Thanks Joseph, I suppose what it all boils down to is that we should look for good trending markets either up or down to trade. Precious metals have been stuck in a range for 1.5 years and until they show signs of doing otherwise then let's focus on other markets that are trending nicely.
> 
> Unless you are in for the long haul ofcourse!!




That's it wavepicker, the long term outlook is the basis of my investing.    Thanks for the insights above.  

The timelines do have a big bearing on the different outlooks which makes it difficult for the newcomers.

The other hair split is that some see gold/silver as part of commodities and others see them as precious metals and still others as a store of wealth.   I see it as the latter two

cheers explod


----------



## cuttlefish

So does anyone know where all the gold in the world is anyway?  It doesn't sound like a big proportion of it ends up as jewellery (or am I wrong there?).  

Various central banks have been offloading gold for years so there's not as much held in vaults about the place.  So where is it, who's holding the physical gold sold by miners that hasn't been turned into jewellery?

Another question - how much volume is traded daily, monthly, annually?  

What percentage of gold buying is jewellery demand vs investor/speculator demand?  
And how quickly could supply respond to a price increase?  

Seems that gold explorers with a large, well understood but low grade/uneconomical gold deposit are a dime a dozen - so wouldn't a sharp increase in price fairly rapidly bring new supply on stream?

Thanks to anyone that can offer any thoughts, information or opinions on the above!


----------



## Nicks

cuttlefish said:


> So does anyone know where all the gold in the world is anyway?  It doesn't sound like a big proportion of it ends up as jewellery (or am I wrong there?).
> 
> Various central banks have been offloading gold for years so there's not as much held in vaults about the place.  So where is it, who's holding the physical gold sold by miners that hasn't been turned into jewellery?
> 
> Another question - how much volume is traded daily, monthly, annually?
> 
> What percentage of gold buying is jewellery demand vs investor/speculator demand?
> And how quickly could supply respond to a price increase?
> 
> Seems that gold explorers with a large, well understood but low grade/uneconomical gold deposit are a dime a dozen - so wouldn't a sharp increase in price fairly rapidly bring new supply on stream?
> 
> Thanks to anyone that can offer any thoughts, information or opinions on the above!




Cuttlefish this is excellent thinking and poses the question on several fundamental fronts.

One I would like to talk about though, which you alluded to is viability.

I bought Avoca resources (AVO) when they did their mine feasability study at US$450 an ounce. Now as the Gold Price is rising significantly since then their mines, which also have increased in quality and magnitude, are now suddenly not only viable but high earners.

Thus you have similar companies like A1 minerals (AAM), with mines that have similar quality g/t of gold that already seem they will pass the feasability test with a strong project NPV. I have invested in this company also as it looks great from a NPV value at present gold rates (and they have Uranium prospects in their holdings also), and there is also an upside if Gold climbs higher. Of course if gold goes lower than feasability is less but I cannot see any downside in gold price, and even so then the worst case is the tenements would just hold in value for a while. 

A sharp increase would see production ramp up very quickly at both and a strong SP reflection.

Interestingly as they develop the mines, as seen in Avocas case, they tend to strike more and more deposits.


----------



## ducati916

cuttlefish said:


> So does anyone know where all the gold in the world is anyway?  It doesn't sound like a big proportion of it ends up as jewellery (or am I wrong there?).
> 
> Various central banks have been offloading gold for years so there's not as much held in vaults about the place.  So where is it, who's holding the physical gold sold by miners that hasn't been turned into jewellery?
> 
> Another question - how much volume is traded daily, monthly, annually?
> 
> What percentage of gold buying is jewellery demand vs investor/speculator demand?
> And how quickly could supply respond to a price increase?
> 
> Seems that gold explorers with a large, well understood but low grade/uneconomical gold deposit are a dime a dozen - so wouldn't a sharp increase in price fairly rapidly bring new supply on stream?
> 
> Thanks to anyone that can offer any thoughts, information or opinions on the above!




I have already posted the latest data that answers the majority of your questions on page 80 of this thread.

jog on
d998


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Wavepicker


> Just have a look at this market, it has been pummeled into the ground for the last 7 years, what are the chances it’s going to collapse from here given it has already come down 33%?? If anything further downside will be limited in the medium term. Over the longer term a continued decline is more realistic.




A simple question for me is, why not? Why can't it continue down? The basis for your analysis was by way of technical analysis?, yet the word 'chances' is mentioned on the fact that a substantial decline has already taken place. I'm not having a go at you, just wondering on what technical analysis you are basing your assumption that there is little chance of further falls in the $US index. Benny has started throwing money from helicopters, so it's not as if there is still a shortage of the IOU's.

I think the Fed has the $US index right at the goldilocks point where it is starting to have a reasonable impact on the balance of trade etc, but not low enough to cause price inflation for US consumers, so they will fight pretty hard to keep it here, no more, no less.

Back in '87 the $US was the only safe store I assume, but there are a few alternatives these day's so probably not the safe bet it used to be?


----------



## cuttlefish

ducati916 said:


> I have already posted the latest data that answers the majority of your questions on page 80 of this thread.
> 
> jog on
> d998




thanks duc


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> A simple question for me is, why not? Why can't it continue down? The basis for your analysis was by way of technical analysis?, yet the word 'chances' is mentioned on the fact that a substantial decline has already taken place. I'm not having a go at you, just wondering on what technical analysis you are basing your assumption that there is little chance of further falls in the $US index.




If you want trade effectively then you have to learn to think in probabilities.  Why??  Because the market only gives us probabilities, possibilities and no certainties. By looking at trading opportunities in terms of probabilities we are thus looking at circumstances to trade from, be it fundemental or technical. To answer your question, YES the market can continue down, I never said that it could not, and YES the market can collapse as anything is possible. However what is the probability this will happen *NOW* given:-

a/ the market has already lost 33%
b/markets rarely move up and down vertically, they ratchet down and we  have quite a few countertrends against the main trend
c/ The trend of the last 12 months has been a creeping/struggling trend

Now back to my earlier post, read it carefully. I stated that I beleive the USD is in a secular bear market. However IMO is not ready to "collapse" just yet. I still think it's trending down and has further to trend down, but after this last leg is completed, probabilities favour it's biggest counterend rally since the bear began.

No offence UNCLE, but all you have done is stated the OBVIOUS fundemental argument as to why the the USD will collapse, just like others on this forum have stated the obvious as to why the commodities boom will go for a long time because of other fundementals like China. Dollar bears have been stating the obvious now for the best part of 3 years. When they became most vocal about it(ie the financial print media) saying  they were convinced the dollar was gonna collape in Dec of 2004, well what did the dollar do?? It rallied 21% that year(2005).
Now the same crowd such as yourself are still calling for a collapse, probably more so then back then.

It might pay to start looking at the market a little bit more objectively, both froma technical and fundemental perspective


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> If you want trade effectively then you have to learn to think in probabilities.
> 
> It might pay to start looking at the market a little bit more objectively, both froma technical and fundemental perspective




Ok, so let's do that, but then trade on probabilities??? You are starting to sound like Bean now


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> Ok, so let's do that, but then trade on probabilities??? You are starting to sound like Bean now




Yes UNCLE it’s all about probabilities, May I ask you when you take a trade, what mechanism do you use to measure the market such that the cards are stacked in your favor as best as you can asses??. How do you know when high is too high and how low is too low in the market?? I have partly shown in other threads how I go about this, rightly or wrongly in your eyes.  

Please show us how you go about this, I and others would be most interested in your logic both technical and fundamental. Can you provide, dates, can you provide, price levels and patterns in your analysis to back up your fundamental argument or do you just trade the obvious?? What are your entry, exit, and contingency, and how do you set them??

Re Bean, can you please elaborate???


----------



## bean

Uncle Festivus said:


> Ok, so let's do that, but then trade on probabilities??? You are starting to sound like Bean now



I was going to sit back and see how gold traded the next couple of days before posting.
Because I do see a few possiblities for the US Gold Indicies
I thought it would continue in a very very tight range till next week.
Support 140 & 335  for the hui and xau
However I now think that they are going to make a move tonight and tomorrow night.
The direction????
I think down but not 100% sure (only about 60%)
The POG will follow


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> Yes UNCLE it’s all about probabilities, May I ask you when you take a trade, what mechanism do you use to measure the market such that the cards are stacked in your favor as best as you can asses??. How do you know when high is too high and how low is too low in the market?? I have partly shown in other threads how I go about this, rightly or wrongly in your eyes.
> 
> Please show us how you go about this, I and others would be most interested in your logic both technical and fundamental. Can you provide, dates, can you provide, price levels and patterns in your analysis to back up your fundamental argument or do you just trade the obvious?? What are your entry, exit, and contingency, and how do you set them??
> 
> Re Bean, can you please elaborate???






> Just have a look at this market, it has been pummeled into the ground for the last 7 years, what are the chances it’s going to collapse from here given it has already come down 33%??




This is the crux of the present dicussion, not my methods. I originally merley asked if you had made your observation by way of technical analysis, yet it appeared that part of your answer had the word 'chance' in it. I thought it was a bit unusual for you, that's all. I didn't in any way have any doubt as to what your general view is, as it is closely aligned to mine anyway. Let's not get bogged down in semantics?


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle, the quote that your are referring to that is the “crux of the argument”  is how I trade. It’s called buying low and selling higher. It’s based on Cyclical Statistical Analysis.

Now I ask you a question that is not related to the crux of the argument, but based on the quote from an earlier post




Uncle Festivus said:


> I assume this is from a TA perspective, but I can't see any fundamental reason for a bounce in the $US on the horizon




Does there have to be a fundamental reason why a market does what it does? Every evening in the news we hear of people trying to justify what the market did. Cannot it be that the fundamentals lag the market?


----------



## Nicks

Uncle Festivus said:


> Ok, so let's do that, but then trade on probabilities??? You are starting to sound like Bean now




Personally, I enjoy having Bean on this forum. Not that I understand what he is saying half the time  but it makes things interesting  especially when people rib him up about what on earth he is going on about, and then he comes back with some more bean logic. Keep posting bean.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> Cannot it be that the fundamentals lag the market?




I'm not sure, but for me it would be like the tail wagging the dog? As it applies to the gold price are you looking at a chart and identifying an established (or your own) ta principle then looking for a fundamental reason for the price to fulfill the ta principle? For example, I assume the price point for gold to technically breach a significant level would be around $700 or so based on simple ta? How would you see it, ie what gold price (or trend or tech indicator) is significant enough to you to begin buying, based on ta? Having arrived at this price, what then would be the factors to get the price to this level, if ta's are waiting for this price point? I would assume that some sort of fundamental 'event' or events had taken place before such price point. What do you think, the chicken before the egg?


----------



## Gar

> Personally, I enjoy having Bean on this forum. Not that I understand what he is saying half the time  but it makes things interesting especially when people rib him up about what on earth he is going on about, and then he comes back with some more bean logic. Keep posting bean.




as do I, I dont think his words should taken as gospel but I do think his posts are interesting and not entirely without merit


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm not sure, but for me it would be like the tail wagging the dog? As it applies to the gold price are you looking at a chart and identifying an established (or your own) ta principle then looking for a fundamental reason for the price to fulfill the ta principle? For example, I assume the price point for gold to technically breach a significant level would be around $700 or so based on simple ta? How would you see it, ie what gold price (or trend or tech indicator) is significant enough to you to begin buying, based on ta? Having arrived at this price, what then would be the factors to get the price to this level, if ta's are waiting for this price point? I would assume that some sort of fundamental 'event' or events had taken place before such price point. What do you think, the chicken before the egg?





Uncle,  this conversation has gone far enough. Fundies and techies have been debating for hundreds of years and will continue do so. I look at the market completely differently to you and you to me.

Personally I rarely bother with fundementals(except long term ones) as IMO the forces that propel the market are internal, dynamic, and feed upon themselves. I consider TA and sentiment much more important than FA when it comes to my trading(and my trading decisions are rarely based on the obvious fundementals at the time), but that is me. 

To answer your question re TA on Gold, I consider Pattern first , Time Cycles second, followed by Sentiment. Price level is of secondary importance.

However if you would like to know more then refer to posts #446,454,559 on this thread. There I have in part given  examples of my method and how I traded Gold last year(have made significantly more progress since then). In these examples you will see how the peak of Gold was identified to the week. At the time I was looking for Gold to be in either a bearish move or the very least a sideways market for 1-2 years based on long term time cycles. A chart was even posted of the most likely path Gold would take in those years and so far it has not been way off the mark, but I am not sure it will track this for the remainder of the time of it's sideways progression. What where fundementals saying back then?? Not much I gather except after the fact as is the case most of the time.

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge

Another factor to look at is the correlation of the US$ to the Democrats and Republicans when in power. You will note, with extraordinary precision, that the US$ has fallen under Republicans (in fact was at these exact same levels under Reagan and Bush Snr) and risen with Democrats. 

The world is bearish US$. There is a high chance that the Democrats will romp home next year. We're sitting at a multi decade support level.

Another point to ponder. If its so damn obvious that the US$ will fall, why hasn't it? Could it be possible, seeing it's so obvious to all, that all that bad news is actually priced in already? The market prices in the future expectations and will change when those expectations change. 

Just take a look at RIO at its absolute high. What happened? They announced their takeover of Alcan. All analysts upgraded their valuations to $120. Those that new that the Alcan deal was in the air had already bought. They had priced it in already. The suckers were the one's that acted on the news. Buy the rumour, sell the fact.

 I must concur 100% with Wavepicker on the plight of the US$


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Nick Radge said:


> Another factor to look at is the correlation of the US$ to the Democrats and Republicans when in power. You will note, with extraordinary precision, that the US$ has fallen under Republicans (in fact was at these exact same levels under Reagan and Bush Snr) and risen with Democrats.
> 
> The world is bearish US$. There is a high chance that the Democrats will romp home next year. We're sitting at a multi decade support level.
> 
> Another point to ponder. If its so damn obvious that the US$ will fall, why hasn't it? Could it be possible, seeing it's so obvious to all, that all that bad news is actually priced in already? The market prices in the future expectations and will change when those expectations change.
> 
> Just take a look at RIO at its absolute high. What happened? They announced their takeover of Alcan. All analysts upgraded their valuations to $120. Those that new that the Alcan deal was in the air had already bought. They had priced it in already. The suckers were the one's that acted on the news. Buy the rumour, sell the fact.
> 
> I must concur 100% with Wavepicker on the plight of the US$




Excellent post and excellent thoughts, thanks for sharing that Nick.


----------



## bean

Just an article I was reading may be of interest  re POG and US$
"Don't Focus on the US Dollar"
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sobolev/sobolev081407.html

And I also found a longer term chart for Gold 
Posted by Aden sisters


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nick Radge said:


> I must concur 100% with Wavepicker on the plight of the US$




Just to be clear, that would be that the $US & the dollar index will rally for some time but then continue to fall past these historic lows/support levels? Or is this the bottom?


----------



## Magdoran

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm not sure, but for me it would be like the tail wagging the dog? As it applies to the gold price are you looking at a chart and identifying an established (or your own) ta principle then looking for a fundamental reason for the price to fulfill the ta principle? For example, I assume the price point for gold to technically breach a significant level would be around $700 or so based on simple ta? How would you see it, ie what gold price (or trend or tech indicator) is significant enough to you to begin buying, based on ta? Having arrived at this price, what then would be the factors to get the price to this level, if ta's are waiting for this price point? I would assume that some sort of fundamental 'event' or events had taken place before such price point. What do you think, the chicken before the egg?



Uncle Festivus,


Reading your comments to wavepicker reveals to me that your grasp of what wavepicker and I are doing in terms of our technical analysis approach is severely limited.  Not surprisingly I’m going to support wavepicker’s comments in this post.

I don’t think you fully understand where wavepicker and I are coming from at all, and if you haven’t been following the various polemics in this area, then you are returning to some very old arguments that have been done to death on this site.

UF, please take the time to wade through our posts (I know there are a few), but at least do us the justice of both understanding the principles we have presented which are I believe consistent, or where modified through learning have been covered in some depth (for a public forum).  If you are a serious player, at least examine the various calls in detail, and get your head around the concept of forecasting in terms of estimating probabilities we have ventured.

You need to understand Mark Douglas’ concept of the “probabilistic” trading mindset, concepts such as “Anything can happen”, “Every moment in the market is unique”, and “There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge”. 

What we are saying is that ANY kind of analysis will fail from time to time.  We are dealing with uncertainty in financial markets with imperfect knowledge, and also the perspective that analysts no mater how gifted are imperfect too.  This is why wavepicker and I talk in terms of chances/probabilities.  From our perspective there is no such thing as a 100% guarantee, only probabilities - until someone proves otherwise, and I make a blanket challenge to that effect.  Do you disagree with this principle/assertion UF at the core, or were you just finding this concept difficult to comprehend?

Here is the core reasoning behind the various caveats on any of our analysis:  Using even the most sophisticated form of technical or fundamental analysis is no guarantee of the future.  I hold that there is no 100% guaranteed crystal ball/Holy Grail – no one has a monopoly on what will happen in the future – UF, I challenge you to prove me wrong.

Hence we see it as our duty to talk in terms of possibility and include caveats based on our best estimation at the time, standing at the brink of price action as it unfolds feeling forwards (to borrow from Bronowski).

A key premise in our thinking is that there is a discernable order to financial markets dating right back to the earliest recorded history, and that this order stems from a range of observable tendencies that effects all aspects of our existence (consider the accumulated scientific knowledge at ALL levels over the past 3000 years).  The corollary being that (economic/psychological) patterns tend to repeat themselves, and that given a sufficient understanding of these patterns, that effective projections/forecasts can be made into the future in terms of time, price, or both time and price.

The cornerstone of our analysis is based on observations of well established market cycles and patterns that TEND to yield consistent results (often to an extent that can yield quite high positive expectancy – but in specific conditions).  Wavepicker has in part a focus on wave structure in markets as ventured by Prechter for example.  

However, we fully recognise that there are always exceptions to any rule, and that many of these exceptions can reveal a broader pattern that if studied carefully enough can also be accommodated.  Hence the more effectively you study, the more effectively you can build a body of valuable observations and techniques which can significantly augment a trading edge.

While we can be highly confident of some of the calls we make in advance because we have spent years of concerted and directed effort to try to build a rigorous and effective capacity to make market forecasts, there has to be provision for error.  Surely you can see this simple and glaringly obvious point?  We can and do make errors.  

Respectfully, some of the calls wavepicker has made, and the calls I have made have been highly accurate (others just plain wrong), but overall, I would have thought that our combined track record was reasonably compelling - read through the posts and make your own assessment if you are prepared to take the time and make the concerted professional effort to meet us at an equivalent level.

Let me make it clear though that while wavepicker and I share in common a core pure charting foundation for our analysis (much based on McLaren), and while I do use Elliott Wave principles factored into my analysis while this is his strong suit, of course we do have our differences in our estimations occasionally, and this is usually over timing.  So I’m saying even though we work together and compare notes, we don’t always have to agree absolutely, but we do generally concur on the broader issues, it is in the minutia that our interpretations can diverge from time to time. 

My key point to you UF is that you need to understand that in discussions like the one on this forum that we are venturing an individual estimation of what we are seeing in the market from a technical perspective in detail based on the evidence that is available.

I suspect that you may be assuming the type of technical analysis that we do is similar to the basic “run of the mill” garden variety “moving average cross over” orthodox styles.  I don’t think you comprehend the vast difference there is between the various technical analysis styles or their effectiveness, and cannot distinguish the stark differences in quality and effectiveness.

Once you have taken the time to read through the combined posts wavepicker and I have made, rather than taking issue without understanding the whole body of knowledge and the reasoning behind it, at least look at this work, understand it, then if you like, why not start a new thread to raise any issues you wish to address there if you have anything original to add? So please, can we try not to reinvent the wheel on this thread?  


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mags,
I get the drift ok. As I have said, I agree with the general thrust of the reasoning and direction. I'm sure there's a Far Side cartoon in there somewhere about querying a technical analyst . 
UF


----------



## Magdoran

Uncle Festivus said:


> Mags,
> I get the drift ok. As I have said, I agree with the general thrust of the reasoning and direction. I'm sure there's a Far Side cartoon in there somewhere about querying a technical analyst .
> UF



UF, 

Now you’re starting to sound a lot like bean too, aren’t you?

I don’t know if there’s a far side cartoon about repetition or slow learning, but I think you’ve become the “Jeannie Little” of this thread!

Mag


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Magdoran said:


> UF,
> 
> Now you’re starting to sound a lot like bean too, aren’t you?
> 
> I don’t know if there’s a far side cartoon about repetition or slow learning, but I think you’ve become the “Jeannie Little” of this thread!
> 
> Mag




What are the _chances_ of that happening?


----------



## Magdoran

Uncle Festivus said:


> What are the _chances_ of that happening?



A very high probability, in fact, it’s almost a certainty! Hahahaha!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Magdoran said:


> A very high probability, in fact, it’s almost a certainty! Hahahaha!




For the benefit of the rest of us Jeanie Littles/slow learners, what will the $US, the US dollar index & the gold price do in the next few months?


----------



## numbercruncher

Uncle Festivus said:


> For the benefit of the rest of us Jeanie Littles/slow learners, what will the $US, the US dollar index & the gold price do in the next few months?






*Gets out crystal ball*


Gold in AUD ^^ up !


----------



## Magdoran

Uncle Festivus said:


> For the benefit of the rest of us Jeanie Littles/slow learners, what will the $US, the US dollar index & the gold price do in the next few months?



Working on it.

I have had a couple of conceptual breakthroughs (for me), despite having a range of pressing distractions right now (hence the greatly reduced posting of forecasts), but have been looking at the US dollar equation, coupled with a range of commodities (like gold and the full range of LME futures), and of course the major indices and US bond market.

I know there is a correlation between all of these markets.  I know that there is a correlation in daily and weekly time frames (and of course any other time frame including monthly charts).

For me to make a first class forecast now would be premature while I work this out, and incorporate my new concepts into the mix, let alone bounce some ideas off wavepicker and vice versa.

Overall I tend to agree with his perspectives, but have some timing issues to resolve and some interrelationships between various markets to reconcile.

I do have concerns about the state of the China market which is looking very much like a classic bubble (of the “South Sea” and “Tulip” variety). 

I think there is a relationship between all these markets to a varying degree which may affect the way gold trends.

I’ll put up some longer term charts to illustrate what I’m struggling with to come to a precise conclusion.  Until I can see this clearly, I’m reluctant to make an outright call with a time and price (maybe I’ll make a time only call).  I’m waiting on some of the futures data to come in, then I’ll be able to post up some related up to date charts…



Mag


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Thanks Mag, I agree with your sentiments, esp China. Maybe we are walking beside each other here, in these turbulent times. (Daaaarling )


----------



## chops_a_must

Magdoran said:


> I do have concerns about the state of the China market which is looking very much like a classic bubble (of the “South Sea” and “Tulip” variety).



Are you able to do a basic wave count of it? Because last time I looked it looked like a massive W5 type formation


----------



## Magdoran

chops_a_must said:


> Are you able to do a basic wave count of it? Because last time I looked it looked like a massive W5 type formation



Hello Chops,


There are times to rely totally on EW, and times not to, and times to use it as part of the equation.  By the way, wavepicker is the stronger practitioner in EW than I am, hence his view would be relevant.

On this occasion I am still weighing up exactly what to use for an effective measure.  I am still studying bubble style patterns in order to improve my estimations.  But again, this is premature, and I need more time than I have available to do it to my satisfaction.

Does the Shanghai market look like a 5 wave of some sort out of a contracting wave 4?  Absolutely!

But can a 5th wave subdivide and extend (especially in a bubble)?  Oh yes, they can, and just like the problems measuring the recent XAO wave structure, the same applies for the market in China.  Working out tops at the best of times is fraught with difficulties, let alone bubble tops which are notoriously hard to work out precisely ahead of time.  (It can be done - Gann for instance published the exact date of the 1929 top about a year out from the event).

Unfortunately the data that I have for the Chinese market is really patchy, and I can’t get good quality information back very far which makes it quite challenging to analyse this market effectively with time cycles and geometric technical analysis.

I just had a look at the current chart and the trend still seems to be up, and I suspect that it will remain bullish into 22 August or the alternative 26 August.  What it does around here will tell me more about the trend.  I can see this moving up into 21 October or beyond (it may extend) at least currently, but the price action over the next week will tell me more about what is going on.

Using pure EW you’d expect this was a blow off wave 5 out of a contracting triangle 4, but I suspect that even though it may pull back from some kind of top around 22 August that it will extend bullishly from this pattern at least into October and beyond (I have 2 different cycles to contend with, and cannot work out the dominant one from the present data until it plays out some more).



Regards


Magdoran

P.S. By the way, that futures data has just come in, so I’m examining it and should be able to look at Gold, US dollar, and related markets in due course.


----------



## Magdoran

Gold I think has a combination of it’s own unique cycle, correlation with currencies (notably the US dollar is a factor), but the US dollar and equity markets in turn have an interrelationship with the US Bond market, hence I think this is a vital piece of the puzzle.

Look at the US T bond chart, and see how it is right in the balance right now.  It looks to me like the secular trend is DOWN in the longer term meaning that interest rates are trending UP (remember interest rates are the inverse of the price of the bond).  However, the current situation is less clear.

In the daily (see attached chart) bonds could go either way from here, it’s really in the balance.  If the 06 August high can be exceeded, this may move bullishly from here, but my suspicion is for a failure to close the recent gap, and some kind of bearish movement to eventuate.  I will know a lot more when bonds trade into 24 August and immediately after this date, but more importantly into 11 September and 17 September (note the marked dates on the chart).

Till I know what this is doing, the effect on equity markets, US dollar and for this thread Gold is really in the balance, since I think interest rates are a key factor in the mix right now.

Us dollar and gold charts to follow…


Mag


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> For the benefit of the rest of us Jeanie Littles/slow learners, what will the $US, the US dollar index & the gold price do in the next few months?




Hello Uncle,  If you read the posts in this thread  going back to the last 18 months you will probably find some possible answers to that question. In short however, IMO the US Dollar Index will continue to trend down in the short term, perhaps even till years end. But next year might be a completely different ball game. Since the USD Index is comprised of a basket of major pairs traded with varying weightings(the highest component of which is EURUSD), it might pay to even look at the EURUSD which should be close chaging trend by the end of the year. This opinion is purely based on pattern analysis and I have not done any Cycle or Time analysis on the USD Index.  The same goes for the AUDUSD, but in terms of time it might hang in there 6 months longer  however compared to the EURUSD.  

As for Gold, more of the same, caught in a range with the medium term trend downward( refer to all my and Mags post re Gold on this thread)

Cheers


----------



## Magdoran

Please see attached Gold chart – with a lot of the workings still left in…

This just looks like its going sideways in the daily for a while.  Until it trades into the time points given (there is another couple of cycles evident and I again don’t yet know which one is dominant – or if they are concurrent cycles) I can’t see any good directional trades out of this pattern.  The cycles are working, but the pattern is ambiguous in terms of direction.

Note the recent double top below the April high.  This level really needs to be breeched for Gold to move forward, and layered on with lows coming in above this level.  Otherwise this really looks like it’s going to go sideways or move down from here.

This looks like market indecision and some kind of consolidation.

I tend to agree with the concept Gold is in a secular bull phase in the long term, and agree with wavepicker that this could move down at some stage to wash out the sellers before resuming a strong bull trend.  Timeframe is difficult currently till this plays out some more, but wavepicker’s suggestion of an 8.5 year cycle is plausible. 

I’m still studying the longer term patterns and have yet to reach a conclusion in this time frame for precision dates and levels, however, here is my current thinking – 

Two key dates:  20 October 2007, 30 August 2008.  These are weekly dates, hence they can be out 1 week either side of a 1 week period, so they aren’t that accurate (yet – working on this).  A pull back into the October week should find support.

The weekly and monthly charts still look bullish to me, but the pattern indicates that some kind of shorter term pull back would be normal before a drive up to test the major highs.  There is definitely a strong cycle running through gold, and the more I can see into this and how the interrelationships can be mapped effectively, the better I’ll be able to comment on this subject, but this is a work in progress.

Mag

P.S. Alternative Daily time increments:  31 Aug, 12 Sept (18 Sept??).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Interesting example of a panic contagion in the XGD (down over 200) while the Aus gold price is up over $800 again.


----------



## Magdoran

US Dollar – the chart tells the story.  Tend to agree with wavepicker’s assessment.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Magdoran said:


> US Dollar – the chart tells the story. Tend to agree with wavepicker’s assessment.




So the $US will rebound against the major currencies?


----------



## bean

The US$ and Gold  -  Deflation or Inflation

A couple of dates to remember 
18th September
30th 31st October
11th December
The  Fed meetings for this year
(Watch bond and US$ and POG movements a couple of weeks prior to meetings)



> Bond prices and interest rates are frequently related to gold stock movements with a lag of 6 to 9 months. As gold stocks rise, interest rates will bottom (and bond prices will top) approximately 6-9 months later.




The next is a couple of questions and answers on Financialsence



> _This is Ron from Virginia, the question of whether we're about to enter a period of hyperinflation or deflation is a critical question. And since it looks like the current period is one where credit is the culprit where the big inflation is still occurring, rather than the paper-money sphere, it seems it more closely resembles the 1920s credit boom rather than the current Zimbabwe paper-money blizzard. You weighed in on the hyperinflation-before-deflation side. Do you assume that the government is going to monetize all of these debts? Thanks._
> 
> JIM: Absolutely, Ron. One of the ways you get rid of the huge debt burden is to inflate it away and I’ll give you an example: Monetize. The Fed began this week with injections buying mortgage-backed securities that were illiquid or couldn't be sold, so you get a good example of that this week.






> _Hello, Jim and John, this is Frank from New Jersey calling again. Thank you for the great work as usual. I do have one question that I don’t know has ever been brought up. What if the Fed decides not to cut rates. You know, your forecast is predicting that they will cut rates because otherwise…to save the economy and sacrifice the dollar. What if the opposite turns out to be true; or if they would just do nothing? How would that affect the investment strategy of gold and commodities in general because my guess is there would be less demand for it? Just wanted to know your insights on another scenario._
> Frank, if the Fed didn’t cut interest rates and we went into a depression there would no longer be a Federal Reserve. You would have politicians all over their case as conditions in the country worsened; as conditions in the market worsened. Believe me, they’re going to cut interest rates. But the one thing that they have to be very careful of is they can’t look like they are panicking, because when the Fed looks like it’s beginning to panic then psychologically you could have the markets move against them – in other words, you could see gold move to 1000 over night. And in terms of if the Fed did not cut interest rates, and let’s say we went into a huge deflation cycle with the economy going into a depression, and they refused to cut interest rates during that period of time, I just don’t think you have to worry about that. The present chairman of the Federal Reserve did his doctoral thesis on the Great Depression; and his thesis is that the reason that the Depression occurred is that the government or the Fed itself did not print enough money, soon enough, and in large enough quantities to avoid the Depression. So that’s his view, and it was further backed up at Milton Friedman’s 80th birthday where he said, “Friedman, you’re right, we’ve learned our lessons and we’ll never let that happen again.” So I don’t think, Frank, you have to worry about the Fed not cutting interest rates.


----------



## Magdoran

Uncle Festivus said:


> So the $US will rebound against the major currencies?



USD EURO:

It’s too early for me to give a definitive answer.  I need more time to study this market, and I’m really just doing this off the cuff in-between a range of other activities. I have spent time building my Forex “stable”, and researching previous periods, but this needs more work to make precise forecasts like I do in other areas.  

However, if that is an ending diagonal in the weekly playing out, EDs typically entail a sharp move against the trend.  When this might happen is not clear to me yet, but in the weekly possibly not too many bars ahead, difficult to say since I’m better at forecasting with daily charts.

Alternatively the weekly chart could also be showing a nesting pattern which means a capitulation may be required to end the trend – essentially a panic move down.  That’s also possible with this type of pattern, and the methods to differentiate the two while in existence is still in its embryonic stage.

This is exactly what wavepicker is seeing too…

Frankly, I can’t tell which it is at this point, but the way the currency trades into the key dates will give some clues on probabilities (if I’ve got the cycle right, which in this case is still preliminary – you’re seeing me do the groundwork while I muse through trying to verify which cycle is dominant in which time frame, and there do seem to be cycles evident to me).

Key elements I’m looking at are - what is the current trend in different time frames – the answer is down in the daily, and down in the weekly.

The pattern in the weekly is a struggling trend, although started off strongly.  See how strong the move was from 2000 to early 2005.  This was a huge move down, wasn’t it?  Then look at the recent pattern over the last couple of years.  It hasn’t moved much in terms of the range of movement, has it?  It has crept down weakly, after a major low came in around December 2004.  That’s why this could see a counter trend of some sort come in.  

Hence I’m waiting to see something convincing before making a projection at this point.  I maintain the US bond market may give a clue for gold, US dollar and the major indexes.


Mag


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Sorry Gold bugs.

I am backing up Magdoran and Wavepicker on this.

Attached chart in the us$ index weekly. I personally think the brear market has finished and its moving sidways now.

I see a early pattern of possible accumulation starting to occur there are some other happenings in other markets that eg bonds that back up the pattern. Rates rising = cash valuation, correct me if i am wrong on that.

I see the US Dollar Treasury notes, as a possible near term opportunity on the long side.

Good trading.

see chart


----------



## wavepicker

Trade_It said:


> Sorry Gold bugs.
> 
> I am backing up Magdoran and Wavepicker on this.
> 
> Attached chart in the us$ index weekly. I personally think the brear market has finished and its moving sidways now.
> 
> I see a early pattern of possible accumulation starting to occur there are some other happenings in other markets that eg bonds that back up the pattern. Rates rising = cash valuation, correct me if i am wrong on that.
> 
> I see the US Dollar Treasury notes, as a possible near term opportunity on the long side.
> 
> Good trading.
> 
> see chart




Hi Trade It,

that is what it maybe starting to looklike, I suppose then the rest maybe just a question of timing. Precious metals and foreign currencies look to be doing it tough again tonight.  

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wavepicker said:


> Hi Trade It,
> 
> that is what it maybe starting to looklike, I suppose then the rest maybe just a question of timing. Precious metals and foreign currencies look to be doing it tough again tonight.
> 
> Cheers




Are they what WP!

Feels like yesterday I was long on the AUD/USD at .88 cents!



*Bear markets nor bull markets can never last forever but hope and expectation can last as long as u choose to see it!*


----------



## GreatPig

In A$ from the ASX GOLD stock, the price has formed a nice cup or bowl. Will there be a handle and then a run up?

GP


----------



## bean

bean said:


> I was going to sit back and see how gold traded the next couple of days before posting.
> Because I do see a few possiblities for the US Gold Indicies
> I thought it would continue in a very very tight range till next week.
> Support 140 & 335  for the hui and xau
> However I now think that they are going to make a move tonight and tomorrow night.
> The direction????
> I think down but not 100% sure (only about 60%)
> The POG will follow




Well 1/2 right???  
The US Gold indicies have drop 8% last two day
POG less than US$ 2


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Well 1/2 right???



Or, half wrong. Maybe a coin toss could do the trick next time?


----------



## noirua

Don't worry, I'm sure, in my waters, that gold will continue to move sideways, roughly that is. The Greenback will continue its recovery, albeit more gradually than the last few weeks, so, if you'r sitting in Australasia, UK or Europe, no troubles. If you've been in US Bonds for two weeks, great news, and more to come, hopefully. (reasoning for comments, see post 1621)


----------



## bean

A bounce tonight,  if not run for the hills.
The Gold price will follow the US Gold Indicies

Could I get my low in POG very soon.

US$ a bit more of a rise till interest rate cut (which may be soon.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> A bounce tonight,  if not run for the hills.
> The Gold price will follow the US Gold Indicies
> 
> Could I get my low in POG very soon.
> 
> US$ a bit more of a rise till interest rate cut (which may be soon.




There will be no interest rate cut in US Bean CPI data rose, that will leave the us economy open to all kinds of problems.

Due to the inflation data rise Sub Prime is on its own to a degree.


----------



## Nicks

bean said:


> Well 1/2 right???
> The US Gold indicies have drop 8% last two day
> POG less than US$ 2




Bean in the post that this above quote responds to, you said that you were about 60% sure. 
Now you are saying, regarding that post, that you were 1/2 right (ie 50%).

So you were 60% sure and then 1/2 right. Therefore your analysis was really only 30% trustworthy.

Your mathematical logic always amuses me.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A bit of a mini bull market happening here in the Aus gold price, thanks to the tanking Aussie dollar. Not sure if it will last though? Quite a few gold stocks going cheap today.



> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Faced with tightening credit markets, Wall Street is clamoring for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but so far there is no indication that the central bank will oblige.
> 
> But many economists are starting to pencil in a rate cut at the Fed's October 31 meeting. They say it will be clear by then that the economy - and not only foolish investors - would benefit.
> 
> Financial markets are betting that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his committee will cut rates, and soon. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 100% chance of a cut in September, with a small chance of a cut coming before the meeting. The market expects the fed funds rate, now at 5.25%, to sink to 4.75% by year end.


----------



## bean

Nicks said:


> Bean in the post that this above quote responds to, you said that you were about 60% sure.
> Now you are saying, regarding that post, that you were 1/2 right (ie 50%).
> 
> So you were 60% sure and then 1/2 right. Therefore your analysis was really only 30% trustworthy.
> 
> Your mathematical logic always amuses me.




To confuse you even more I was and am still am 100% sure the Gold Indices have a lot further to fall and POG will follow suit
(When I made that statement I was 100% sure  but if I was wrong won't I have had the (well everyone at me)
Even though today saw so many bargains in the gold stocks I stayed in cash
I am 100% sure that all my original posts and ideas on POG and US Gold Indicies are going to come true very soon.

Option expiry week in the US this friday.  (just for fun)
The US markets *need a bounce tonight* or a total CRASH is only days away.

SO a possibility of 500 - 600 point drop to night for starters (surely not)

And as I said the US will cut interest rates - explained in the post I did yesterday


----------



## BlueDaze

*Bounce*



bean said:


> The US markets *need a bounce tonight* or a total CRASH is only days away.



Almost all the key market *bottom* indicators that I follow are at incredibly over-sold extremes. For example:







But look here...






So I agree with bean that a bounce is due tonight.


----------



## BlueDaze

*SPX Is In Wave C Of An Intermediate Term Downcycle*

This is one EW blog I've been following closely.

http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com

Lastest post:

http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/spx-is-in-wave-c-of-intermediate-term_15.html

"SPX is in Wave C of an intermediate term downcycle. Thanks to a disappointing earnings outlook from reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT yesterday SPX is now confirmed to be in Wave C of an intermediate term downcycle (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$spx), since it took out the Wave A cycle low (occurred on Monday 8-6) yesterday (chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows the recent intermediate term cycle high at 1555.90), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$spx

The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was very bearish during much of today's session, it was greater than -1.00% versus SPX at times, which correctly portended severe late session weakness, but, it turned very bullish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC, and, closed at a very bullish +0.66% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, so, *SPX may have bottomed late today or may do so early tomorrow*.

SPX's technical indicators like RSI, stochastics, and Williams %R are in or near oversold territory, and, Williams %R closed at an extremely oversold -97.875, with -100 being the maximum oversold extreme, which reliably portends a *significant bounce in SPX very soon*.

The Fed added $7 Billion in credit today after adding a very modest $2 Billion on Monday, a massive $24 Billion into the system last Thursday, and, a humongous $38 Billion into the system last Friday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, to ward off a market crash and to provide confidence that one wouldn't occur."

Appreciate if wavepicker or other EW experts can help me understand what he means... Is it an intermediate term downcycle in the context of a *cyclical bull market*, or is it the *beginning of a major bear market*?


----------



## BlueDaze

*Market Not Close to Capitulation Just Yet*

August 14, 2007

*Market Not Close to Capitulation Just Yet*
by Henry To

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=8187&pv=1

In our weekend commentary two weeks ago ("An Update of our Technical Indicators"), I stated that I did not believe we are entering a new bear market, unless one or more of the following occurs:

   1. The promise of significantly higher income and dividend taxes by whoever wins the next US Presidential election in 2008, along with a Congress willing to implement these higher taxation policies

   2. A trade policy mistake by Congress in dealing with China, along with a significant response from China

   3. If the Yen carry trade or Swiss carry trade unwinds in a violent way and ends, which we are not looking for at this time. In all likelihood, such an event will most probably collapse the Korean consumer as well as the major Eastern European economies (not including Russia)

I now want to add a fourth qualifier: *If the current credit market woes spread to other asset-backed securities, such as those backed with auto loans, auto leases, and credit card debt, then we will most probably enter a new bear market*. Subprime and near subprime mortgage debt aside, any deterioration in the just-mentioned asset-backed securities will have severe repercussions for the average U.S. consumer, including higher auto loan and credit card rates all across the board. At this point, the rise in spreads among junk bonds, emerging market bonds, mortgage securities, leveraged loan securities, and CMBS securities still have not spread into the auto loan and credit market markets - but if it does, then we will have to seriously rethink the possibility of a US recession in early 2008 (we will revisit this issue in a later commentary, if applicable).

For now, *probability suggests that we're still in a cyclical bull market*. However, it is naÃ¯ve to think that the last few years of excesses - including excesses in the US housing market, the US buyout market, and the global hedge fund market - can be corrected in a mere three weeks (both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports made all-time highs as recently as July 19th). Make no mistake: This is also the first genuine financial crisis we have witnessed in the cyclical bull market that began in October 2002 - and thus unlike the unjustified "four-year low" and bird flu scares that we experienced during the summer last year, it is natural to expect more corrective action in the US and global equity stock markets over the next few weeks. To put this in perspective: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index can decline another 7% to 8% from its Friday close and still be above its uptrend line that stretches back to October 2005.

Moreover, there are *still indicators out there which still do not suggest "capitulation" - or at the very least, a short-term, a tradable bottom*. Let us first take a look at the action of the Japanese Yen versus other popular "carry trade" currencies (these are the currencies that are popular with folks who borrow in Yen and choose to invest in other currencies, not including the New Zealand Dollar). As our past commentaries have implied, it is natural to first look at the Yen carry trade for signs of capitulation, given that: 1) Speculative forex positions are, no doubt, the most liquid positions that any hedge fund or bank can liquidate in a financial crisis, and thus, it makes sense to look at the action of the Yen as a leading indicator of market capitulation, 2) In terms of measuring the Yen carry trade on either the purchasing power parity basis or in terms of the amount of Yen borrowed by investors or sent out by Japanese investors, the Yen has been getting very overstretched, i.e. close to its Fall 1998 levels, 3) Japanese retail investors, who have been the "main culprits" behind the Yen carry trade over the last 12 months, have historically (and still are) lousy market-timers. Therefore, should the Yen dramatically increase, that would most likely mean that Japanese investors have capitulated and repatriated their money back home - signaling an imminent bottom in the global equity markets from a contrarian standpoint.

The chart below shows the Yen cross rate performance (vs. the Euro, the British Pound, the Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar) from January 2, 2007 to the present:






As mentioned on the above chart, the most recent correction in the four popular Yen cross rates is still not severe enough as what we witnessed during the late February to mid March correction. More importantly, these cross rates have only corrected to levels last seen during early June - definitely nowhere close to "capitulation" levels and a far cry to what we witnessed in Fall 1998, when the Yen - at one point - rose over 10% in a space of 24 hours!

The lack of an oversold condition in the various Yen cross rates (i.e. Yen carry trade) can also be witnessed in the percentage deviation of the Euro-Yen cross rate from its 200-day moving average, as shown in the daily chart below (from February 1999 to the present):






As can be seen on the above chart - even with the latest correction in the Euro-Yen cross rate, it is still trading at 1.88% above its 200 DMA as of last Friday. As a minimum, this author would like to see this % deviation go back to the zero line (similar to what we achieved during the October 2005 and the early March 2007 bottoms) before we would think about initiating a long position in our DJIA Timing System.

Another speculation with plenty of liquidity is crude oil - a commodity that is used and prized all over the world - and one which we consume over 80 million barrels a day and has attracted a lot of long interest over the last few years. Since the latest liquidity/credit crunch began, oil has declined from a high of over $78 a barrel to $71.60 at the end of last week, as can be seen in the daily chart (showing the daily spot price of crude oil as well as its percentage deviation from its 200 DMA) below:






While the latest one-week correction of about $7 a barrel has been relatively steep, it actually isn't much of a correction in the grand scheme of things - especially when compared to the action of crude oil prices over the last 25 years. In the last global credit crunch (keep in mind, however, that this came after the Asian/Russian/LTCM crises), crude oil declined approximately 60% from peak to trough from December 1996 to December 1998. Notwithstanding fears of a active hurricane season, the WTI spot price of crude oil is still lingering at near all-time highs, and is still 13% above its 200 DMA. *Before we can conclude that investors have capitulated*, this author would like to see this percentage decline back to the zero line, or at the very least , a *crude oil price of $68* (5% decline from current levels), or below.


----------



## BlueDaze

"The effective Fed funds rate was 4.54% Tuesday. Since Friday, the rate has been 4.68%, 4.81%, and 4.54% respectively. There is now virtually no doubt that the Fed will cut before this month is over." - Henry To


----------



## BlueDaze

*Bullish for USD - Bad for Gold*

*Henry To*

I am now very bullish on the US Dollar against the Euro, given the following:

1) Turns out that the buying of subprime and other below prime US securities of recent years has been done with borrowed US$ - that is, the US$ had hardly benefited from capital flows into the US. Given the unwinding right now, these folks will be forced to replay their dollar loans, thus closing out their short positions. Normally, these would have no effect on the US$, but keep in mind that they have lost money on the securities, so e.g. If those have lost 30% of their capital and sell, then they will still need to buy US$ equal to 100% of their original capital, while only coverting 70% of their capital back to Euros.

2) Lower-than-expected growth in Italy and Germany during the 2Q. Both the Irish and Spanish housing bubbles have also burst. The injection of US$130 billion by the ECB last Thursday was very telling - and signals that either 1) Euro Zone growth is based significantly on financial liquidity, 2) the financial sector of the Euro Zone made disproportionately large investments in both subprime and junk securities. This is exemplified by a 30% weighting of financials in the MSCI Europe as well as the fact that a couple of money market mutual funds in Europe has actually lost capital.

3) On a purchasing power parity basis, the Euro is still massively overvalued vs. the US$.

4) Any slowdown in the US will affect the Euro Zone disproportionately, as the Euro Zone's manufacturing sector is the manufacturing of last resort, so to speak, or in other words, the marginal producer. Keep in mind that the Euro Zone has been hugely dependent - just like Japan - on export growth in order to sustain their GDP growth in recent years. Consumer spending growth in its latest "growth spurt" as been negligible.

I have no opinion on either the Can$ or AU$ right now - but I believe energy and metal commodities will continue to do okay going forward, so I am neutral on these.

I still believe that most Asian currencies offer tremendous value - against both the US$ and the Euro.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: SPX Is In Wave C Of An Intermediate Term Downcycle*



BlueDaze said:


> "SPX is in Wave C of an intermediate term downcycle.
> 
> Appreciate if wavepicker or other EW experts can help me understand what he means... Is it an intermediate term downcycle in the context of a *cyclical bull market*, or is it the *beginning of a major bear market*?




Hello Bluedaze,

I assume he means a correction of bullmarket.


----------



## bean

Off to bed wondering US gold Indicies HUI was down 3% and Nasdaq went green!!!!
I sure it will make sense in the morning

and POG only US$ 6 down


----------



## bean

To All those that said ?????? to me.

Well Gold is not doing a Zig or a Zag at the moment
	

		
			
		

		
	




May I get praise if I am right?????


----------



## bean

To those that may have read what I have said regaring correction in Gold at the moment the 







> HUI has correct 20% yes 20% in the last four days



 Interest rate may be ready to be cut in the US at the first available opportunity by the FED.
The next meeting is September the 18th will it be before then and will I be 100% in stock before then.


> A stockmarket crash



is now imminent


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Gold is turning GO FOR GOLD  Aussie gold up $3 ATM


----------



## Boyou

Aaaah forgive my ignorance Big guy,but can you elaborate on that for me?

I am keeping an eye on Spot Gold on Kitco and it looks awful! 

Is it the AUD/USD exchange rate you are referring to?


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Boyou said:


> Aaaah forgive my ignorance Big guy,but can you elaborate on that for me?
> 
> I am keeping an eye on Spot Gold on Kitco and it looks awful!
> 
> Is it the AUD/USD exchange rate you are referring to?



Sorry mate not to sure  heres a link to what i'm lookin at
http://goldprice.com.au/


----------



## bean

They may have just moved up from there lows.
But for all those charts did I see one showing a 20% in US Gold Indexes.
Surely a simple cycle and timing and randon would not have picked it
The bargains will come


----------



## Boyou

Thanks,I see what you see now,except Aus Gold is in the red right now.

Ho Hum.Sure are interesting times


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> To All those that said ?????? to me.
> 
> Well Gold is not doing a Zig or a Zag at the moment
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 12378
> 
> 
> May I get praise if I am right?????



Priase for getting what right Bean? 

You have continuously said that gold with go up, or gold will go down, or gold will go sideways. Which prediction are you saying you were right on?

Is gold linked to the US Indexes, or not?

If not, does POG go up, or does it go down, therefore taking gold companies with it? 

Is it linked to the USD? Or not?

Or, is it the POO, interest rates and inflation figures?

Or, is a combination of a number of factors, which you have not concisely articulated yet?


----------



## Sean K

Ooooooo.

Understatement...


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Priase for getting what right Bean?
> 
> You have continuously said that gold with go up, or gold will go down, or gold will go sideways. Which prediction are you saying you were right on?
> 
> Is gold linked to the US Indexes, or not?
> 
> If not, does POG go up, or does it go down, therefore taking gold companies with it?
> 
> Is it linked to the USD? Or not?
> 
> Or, is it the POO, interest rates and inflation figures?
> 
> Or, is a combination of a number of factors, which you have not concisely articulated yet?



US Gold Indicies are tied to the market.
The POG and the gold Indicies can move differently
But they will eventually move together.

For example the POG may rise the indicies may not but they will eventually either rise to confirm the rise in the POG or the POG will drop back.
Or you could have Indicies going higher but the POG not.. so again you would either have the POG going higher or the Indicies falling back.

The same thing happens in a down market
However when you get a BEAR market or a market ready to explode.
The US Gold Indicies will be leading the way as they are caught up in the selling and the POG will eventually follow.

Why the other night did I not say 100% the other night because I knew the Indices were going that night but the POG may not follow straight away.

Is this the move I have been waiting for???? 
Will the POG get to exactly US 540 ???

I do know one thing and this will confuse you
Was the rise in the US Markets going to be the start of a bear market rally???
Or just a one hour rally???
I do not know...but does that look like a BULLISH   bottom in GOLD???
And if it wasn't they its down again.....TONIGHT


----------



## bean

bean said:


> I do know one thing and this will confuse you
> Was the rise in the US Markets going to be the start of a bear market rally???
> Or just a one hour rally???
> I do not know...but does that look like a BULLISH   bottom in GOLD???
> And if it wasn't they its down again.....TONIGHT




Herin lies my confussion
usex xau hui were when I said ready to move 15.16  -  143.12 -	340.74

I expected them to drop BELOW 13.58  - 120.61  - 282.67

They closed today at 13.37 - 125.64 - 300.14
There lows of today were 13.37 - 120.51 - 285.26

So I have one below - one intraday went below - and one not quite.
But I was looking at closing prices being below
So they have not meet my criteria
But are they acting as support??

US markets put in bullish hammers so are they goig to rise?
in my own system a little reading came up, well just a warning that rallies may now be Bear Market rallies so can be short and sharp
But that signal may dissapear if the rally extends a couple of days.

Will I get the Gold Indicies moving further down tonight 
I have a feeling yes but I am not 100% sure.
Because I will be going against the trend of those bullish hammers and the US markets will be down as well


----------



## BlueDaze

In a strategy comment released to clients today, Vancouver based Hahn Investment Stewards & Company, a global asset manager said:

“We can be sure that authorities and central banks will do everything possible to avert a further meltdown. That means quite a few more months of volatile securities and currency markets. At the very minimum, we should expect to see short and sharp recoveries, followed by further declines. All indications to this point suggest that the financial contagion is still spreading.

We also anticipate that the US dollar may rally substantially versus the major currencies, and also the Canadian dollar. (The CAD has already fallen almost 5% against the USD from its July peak.) Actually, we think this has a high probability. This view is quite a shift for us. We have been unsupportive on the US dollar since 2001. While we do not yet suggest that the US dollar is out of its long-term troubles, for an interim period at least ””
perhaps a year or two or longer ”” it is *liable to rise sharply*.

This trend in turn will have *downward implications for commodity prices*. Industrial metals markets ”” and, yes, even crude oil prices ”” should continue to moderate in price.”


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> A simple question for me is, why not? Why can't it continue down? The basis for your analysis was by way of technical analysis?, yet the word 'chances' is mentioned on the fact that a substantial decline has already taken place. I'm not having a go at you, just wondering on what technical analysis you are basing your assumption that there is little chance of further falls in the $US index. Benny has started throwing money from helicopters, so it's not as if there is still a shortage of the IOU's.
> 
> I think the Fed has the $US index right at the goldilocks point where it is starting to have a reasonable impact on the balance of trade etc, but not low enough to cause price inflation for US consumers, so they will fight pretty hard to keep it here, no more, no less.
> 
> Back in '87 the $US was the only safe store I assume, but there are a few alternatives these day's so probably not the safe bet it used to be?




Well the foreign currencies getting smashed as I type and the same for precious metals. You still think the USD Index is getting ready to collapse from here Uncle?

I will repeat again what I said when I last conversed with you, "In some cases the fundamentals lag the moves in the market." 
I also speak in defence of "Effective TA Techniques" that can help anticipate the probabilities of very such market movements. Please Refer to post # 46 with accompanying chart of the following thread made on the 28th June


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=174806#post174806


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well enjoy the rate cut gold bugs!


I know I am! living it up with my current FX trades that r on!    :jump:


----------



## bean

bean said:


> To those that may have read what I have said regaring correction in Gold at the moment the  Interest rate may be ready to be cut in the US at the first available opportunity by the FED.
> The next meeting is September the 18th will it be before then and will I be 100% in stock before then.
> is now imminent




Was I right!!!!!


----------



## bean

How can the Fed do what I want
Well alls well for the moment


----------



## bean

In all this great upward move or savior by the FED
Is they cannot SAVE the markets: (i cannot use enough images but )
The markets are Fcautious:


----------



## bean

You know what the more each day passes The more right I become 
Just my timing is out 
But I only use radom numbers and silly cycles 
But a short term gain gives more pain


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> Was I right!!!!!




Date was wrong Bean. but u called it well done.

don't get to excited yet this could just be a pause till it gets going again,

Long on the US dollar is looking better and better.

see what this rate cut can do,.........aye


----------



## bean

Please note I am a 100% cash
But hopefully shortlift
A calm before the storm?


> SERIOUS





> *what it does show was the US markets were that far from the brink*




How long monday Tuesday before the game is up


> *The FED are worried*




Gains maybe erased  in moments

How long will this last I want at least 20% more downside in the Gold Indicies


----------



## wavepicker

Trade_It said:


> Date was wrong Bean. but u called it well done.
> 
> don't get to excited yet this could just be a pause till it gets going again,
> 
> Long on the US dollar is looking better and better.
> 
> see what this rate cut can do,.........aye





Totally agree TI.  IMO interest rates are in the early stages of a bull and this merely a retracement


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> To All those that said ?????? to me.
> 
> *Well Gold is not doing a Zig or a Zag at the moment*
> View attachment 12378
> 
> 
> May I get praise if I am right?????



So, Bean this is not a Zig and Zag, but down? Or is it up. Or is it still zag? For the record?


----------



## Sean K

Friday7.30 am 


bean said:


> does that look like a BULLISH   bottom in GOLD???
> 
> And if it wasn't they its down again.....TONIGHT




Since gold is up, you are calling a *bullish bottom *on gold from yesterday? For the record.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> You know what the more each day passes The more right I become



This is going down in the 'ASF classic quotes of all time.' Along with Chris calling ERN undervalued at $1.10.  And like all forcasters, you _may _be right one day. But which predictions will be right? Which one are you calling for the record? Gold down last night didn't quite work did it.


----------



## Sean K

Fri 12.45pm



bean said:


> The next meeting is September the 18th will it be before then and will I be 100% in stock before then.




Today 1.20am



bean said:


> Please note I am a 100% cash




 

Cash or stock Bean?

I think you meant cash! 

Good place to be at the moment, I agree.

I do think I know what you are getting at bean:

1. Indexes tank
2. Gold stocks tank 
3. POG tanks
4. USD turns into kindling
5. POG leaps
6. Gold stocks leap.

Is this it?


----------



## BlueDaze

*All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold*

Don Coxe is long-term bullish on gold. His latest commentary is that "All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold".

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> I think you meant cash!
> 
> Good place to be at the moment, I agree.
> 
> I do think I know what you are getting at bean:
> 
> 1. Indexes tank
> 2. Gold stocks tank
> 3. POG tanks
> 4. USD turns into kindling
> 5. POG leaps
> 6. Gold stocks leap.
> 
> Is this it?




All the points are right and I am waiting for 5 & 6

Cash...Yes

I don't know yet but I think the move up last night WAS the HIGH for the move.
(Easy if I am right or wrong if monday is up I am wrong.  
But if it is down head for the hills especially then if tuesday and wednesday is is up)
The figures I said as support for the Indexes are no longer in play I am now looking at a diifferent cycle Those ones were the lows on the 3rd of October last year and they were brought into play by an intermediate cycle
which signalled the low for the move thursday night.  Now this one has issued a signal but the signal should have been issued as the Indicies were falling not rising So it may be marking a high or within one day of the high.
(I know I have now given monday a slight possibility of being the high)
I may be wrong and this rally will last longer??

From last night the FED showed there hand.  The market was ready to go into freefall.  I thought if the markets had dropped last night I would have been with 100% accuracy saying an 87 style Crash would have happened next week ( Wednesday)
And the low in POG and the Gold Indicies would have occured next friday.

The FED are worried...


----------



## bean

A short article with a few charts but interesting reading

BERNANKE TO REPLAY 
GREENSPAN'S 1987 ROLE?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/vronsky/2007/0817.html

Shows what happened to the Various Indicies, POG and the US$ when the FED cut rates after the 87 Crash


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> A short article with a few charts but interesting reading
> 
> BERNANKE TO REPLAY
> GREENSPAN'S 1987 ROLE?
> http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/vronsky/2007/0817.html
> 
> Shows what happened to the Various Indicies, POG and the US$ when the FED cut rates after the 87 Crash



Hi Bean,

I see that the XAU bottommed and went up and bit after the cut (just 10%), but it looks like gold was just in a solid up trend at that stage and didn't really change trajectory significantly at all. Also, from this point on, gold actually goes into a significant decline in 1988 and continues down for years.  See charts. 

Aren't you putting this up as evidence gold is going to fly after the rate cut.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> All the points are right and I am waiting for 5 & 6
> ..



I'm with you here bean. I've been long gold for 3 years (last 15 months hasn't been great ) and am ready to jump on the next up leg. 

I wish you'd stop giving specific days and nights for things to happen. You're going to get one right one day, and you'll be a genius!  



bean said:


> ..............But if it is down head for the hills especially then if tuesday and wednesday is is up).................
> 
> .........*I thought if the markets had dropped last night I would have been with 100% accuracy saying an 87 style Crash would have happened next week ( Wednesday)*......................
> 
> ............And the low in POG and the Gold Indicies would have occured next friday....



 This bit I've bolded is just a silly thing to say bean. You do NOT know this with 100% accuracy AT ALL!


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> I'm with you here bean. I've been long gold for 3 years (last 15 months hasn't been great ) and am ready to jump on the next up leg.
> 
> I wish you'd stop giving specific days and nights for things to happen. You're going to get one right one day, and you'll be a genius!
> 
> This bit I've bolded is just a silly thing to say bean. You do NOT know this with 100% accuracy AT ALL!





US Gold Indicies still have over 30% to drop to the bottom
I did say POG US$ 540  (I don't think it will drop that far)
I thought POS would drop to about US$ 10  
The Crash I will see a pattern develop in the Gold Indicies which will show me they a crashing and that will also be showing when the market is Crashing.
Next FED meeting on interest rate september 18Th. 
There will be a cut then or before.
Yes POG dropped till 2001.  This time the Gold Bug know things are different.
Back then as well we had the large Gold companies hedging the POG which put downward pressure.

















Anyway the Great Gold stocks bargain of 2007 is getting very close


----------



## Mofra

*Re: All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold*



BlueDaze said:


> Don Coxe is long-term bullish on gold. His latest commentary is that "All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold".
> 
> http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp




Cheers for the article, interesting to note the Fed is also playing the "we're bailing out the sub-prime market" excuse - the rate cut could be more beneficial in the MT then the short term in respect to funding housing & market activity.

Either way, the gold bulls must be posting their "USD / Gold inverse relationship" on the walls with glee.


----------



## Boyou

Where are all the gold bulls? Awful quiet on this thread at the moment. 

I might re-invigorate it with these tidbits..all grist to the Gold mill.

"Australian Gold Production has Fallen to its Lowest level in 13 Years"

The Australian gold production has fallen to its lowest levels in 13 years an industry survey by Melbourne Australia based consultants Surbiton Associates.

The report by Surbiton Associates shows that Australia's gold production fell 5 percent to 249 metric tons in 2006 from 263 tons in 2005. This is the lowest Australian gold production since 1993.

However, the value of Australian gold production for 2006 has increased almost 30 percent to 6.4 billion Australian Dollars says Surbiton Associates director Sandra Close.


Australian Gold Production 1981 to 2003 Source: Australian Gold Statistics

Australia has now moved to third spot among the world's gold producers. Last year, South Africa, the world's largest gold producer by far, saw its lowest gold production in 84 years. Gold sales dropped to 275 tonnes, down from 297 tonnes in 2005.

Falling global gold production is likely to be a continuing trend that will make this gold bull market very different to the last gold bull market. In the gold bull market of the 1970s there was plenty of gold supply and the gold mining companies were growing their gold production every year as gold demand increased. Today that situation doesn't exist and will result in much higher gold prices in the years ahead.


----------



## bean

Interesting...but I have a feeling Gold or Gold Indicies may be showing the market where to go/direction!!
US futures are up but Gold at the moment down (well 90 cents) but!!!


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Interesting...but I have a feeling Gold or Gold Indicies may be showing the market where to go/direction!!
> US futures are up but Gold at the moment down (well 90 cents) but!!!




Markets went red but 
Look Gold up $3 brought the market into green...


----------



## Sean K

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From XAO analysis thread:



bean said:


> I am a Gold Bull
> I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
> I have watchlist coming down to my price range.






kennas said:


> Care to name these bean? Perhaps put the list in the gold thread, with the prices you are going to buy them at. Cheers.




For the record:

I'm holding LHG and NCM and have for some time - years. (see threads for reasons) 

Holding KMN and have added to position during correction. (this is now more a polymetalic play though - see thread)

I will buy NEM tomorrow if the break through $5.00 is confirmed. (see thread)

I'm not planning on selling these in this correction/crash, pending company news. I will add to positions when gold breaks $690 ish, pending company news.

bean?


----------



## bean

bean said:


> I am 100% cash at the moment except for silver bullion.
> If I said I am not allowed to what stocks I want to buy and what price.
> I am a silver bug first so
> MMN I hope under 20 cents
> I am a CTO last sold at 41 cents when Gold was US$640
> I hope say 30cents
> IGR,KMN,CRE? but I really would like some mid tiers who can expand there reserves or may be subject to takeove bids for the next leg up when it begins. I will only invest in max of two gold and two silver stocks.  the remaining 20% is uranium or oil stocks




Kennas..did this on 5th May
MMN was .335    A couple of days ago I did not buy as the bottom not in, but MMN dropped to .175

CTO on the 5th May was .39 (its a producer so its price rose, which I traded reach a high on 26th of .525)  A couple of days ago drop to .37


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Kennas..did this on 5th May
> MMN was .335    A couple of days ago I did not buy as the bottom not in, but MMN dropped to .175
> 
> CTO on the 5th May was .39 (its a producer so its price rose, which I traded reach a high on 26th of .525)  A couple of days ago drop to .37



Thanks bean, sorry I missed that post. 

I've held most of those you mentioned but sold out over the past 6 months because I was getting bored and other sectors were going off. Hopefully PMs have their day...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Thought I would jump in here. I have noticed that Silver very often leads Gold up and then down, recently. Maybe for the Three years I have been watching it. And at the moment its looking really poor. I'm keeping an eye on both gold and silver here for a short.

EDIT: Posted the wrong chart


----------



## Sean K

trembling Hand said:


> Thought I would jump in here. I have noticed that Silver very often leads Gold up and then down, recently. Maybe for the Three years I have been watching it. And at the moment its looking really poor. I'm keeping an eye on both gold and silver here for a short.
> 
> EDIT: Posted the wrong chart



Good chart. I agree. eeeek! I was about to go long on some gold stocks. Aaaaagghhh  LOL  Best I wait till there's a break one way of the other. NEM is still saying buy to me though, no matter what POG's doing.


----------



## moneymajix

GOLD AND SILVER ANALYSIS
CBGA SALES FIGURES 
July Central Bank gold sales total 67 tonnes as Swiss climb in
Sales under the current Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement, which ends on September 26th, are continuing at a high rate which may be a contributing factor towards the seemingly poor gold price performance of late.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 21 Aug 2007 

LONDON - 

Amidst reports today that the Swiss Central Bank sold no less than 34.1 tonnes of gold during the month of July - and Mineweb's earlier report of the Spanish Central Bank selling 25 tonnes, it is apparent from Central Bank Gold Agreement figures that Agreement signatories sold a total of 67 tonnes of gold during July, with the other 8 tonnes arising from smaller sales by other unspecified Central Banks.

Switzerland announced relatively recently that it planned to sell 250 tonnes of gold by the end of the 2009 sales period, but the level of sales in July exceeded expectations. If it carries on selling at this rate, the Swiss Central Bank will have offloaded its 250 tons by the end of January next year!

In part the high volume of sales in July by the Swiss may be to take advantage of the remaining shortfall of sales under the CBGA so far this year. These have totalled 353 tonnes up until the end of July, leaving the option open to the banks to sell a further 147 tonnes in the remainder of the Agreement which ends on September 26th. This would mean that to sell the full 500 tonnes allowed for under the CBGA, around 74 tonnes a month could be released during this month and next - a total which had been previously been considered unlikely by market followers.

But, with Spain continuing to be a relatively heavy seller, and the Swiss just starting their sales programme, it is possible that fairly close to the full 500 tonnes could be released in this Agreement year.

Overall, even if some of these sales are picked up by other Central Banks which may be building up gold reserves, the level of sales serves to be a dampener on the overall gold market, which may well account for the rise in gold price anticipated by some not having occurred. That gold has held up so well, though, despite the high sales levels should be seen as long term positive for the yellow metal. 

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=25756&sn=Detail


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## Sean K

bean said:


> Please note I am a 100% cash
> But hopefully shortlift
> A calm before the storm?
> 
> *How long monday Tuesday before the game is up*
> 
> Gains maybe erased  in moments
> 
> How long will this last I want at least 20% more downside in the Gold Indicies



Bean, you really must stop putting time frames on your announcements.


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## explod

Bean, it is all US dollar related.   Notice Benarke hints at dropping interest rate and the US dollar index weakens, theeeeeen notice gold begins to consolidate and is now moving ever so slowly up.   Dollar tonight showing weakness gold is going the other way.    As I have said many times before the gold and US index chart are almost a water reflection for the last few years.  Paper currency (the fiat promise) losing value-----------Gold a real store of value going up.

A time will come when a liquidation from the stock market will go to gold and not dollars as has just been the case.    That time will be soon after the US$ index breaks below that critical support at 80.00

And what a great bargain SRI today.   If gold is up more than 5 or $6 overnight, watch that chart tomorrow

In my humble opinion of course.


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## bean

explod said:


> Bean, it is all US dollar related.   Notice Benarke hints at dropping interest rate and the US dollar index weakens, theeeeeen notice gold begins to consolidate and is now moving ever so slowly up.   Dollar tonight showing weakness gold is going the other way.    As I have said many times before the gold and US index chart are almost a water reflection for the last few years.  Paper currency (the fiat promise) losing value-----------Gold a real store of value going up.
> 
> A time will come when a liquidation from the stock market will go to gold and not dollars as has just been the case.    That time will be soon after the US$ index breaks below that critical support at 80.00
> 
> And what a great bargain SRI today.   If gold is up more than 5 or $6 overnight, watch that chart tomorrow
> 
> In my humble opinion of course.




I am at the moment waiting to see if a short term top in gold Indicies is tonight?  I am looking for a pattern at the moment.

The following article may be improtant as far as far as US$ and POG is concerned


An interesting article here 


> USFED RATE CUT COMING NEXT
> Forget for now the futures market and its indicator of the likelihood of upcoming official rate cuts. Turn to a more powerful market, which is more important than an indicator. The USFed is behind the curve by about a mile and a half. The FedFunds rate target is firm at 5.25% but they did cut the discount rate last week to best bank customers by 50 basis points. This followed emergency Fed Repo actions taken two weeks ago, amounting to around $40 billion in mortgage bond repurchases. What was not explained was two things. First, were only subprime mortgages repo'ed, or some prime mortgage bonds also? Second, were only Wall Street offerings of bonds accepted for repo, in a veiled Wall Street scummy bailout?
> 
> The 2-year Treasury Bill yield is below 4.2%, more than 100 basis points lower than the knucklehead desperados at the USFed have their target. Worse, the 3-month TBill yield has fallen well below 4.0% and during an intraweek situation, fell below the 3.0% mark. If one checks the behavior of the USFed over the course of the last twenty years, a discovery will come. They have been very obedient to the short-term bond market. The highly liquid, ultra-short-term 3-month Treasury market indicates 150 basis points in USFed rate cuts are coming, JUST FOR STARTERS!!!




The Charts






The full article
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie082307.html


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## barrett

*Re: All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold*



BlueDaze said:


> Don Coxe is long-term bullish on gold. His latest commentary is that "All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold".
> 
> http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp




I had a listen to this.. he recently went long gold, and says of the recent correction, "what gold did was very uncharacteristic"... "gold failed to fulfil our enthusiasm for it".. "gold in every single case was the thing you made money on in crises" etc. 

I don't know this guy and I don't wish to bag him out.. but this sort of jelly talk on gold has certainly started to pile up heavily at the shallow end of the commentary pool.  Based on historical precedent there is probably more weakness in gold to come, in the short to medium term: here is a useful quote from truecontrarian.com:

"If you look back at all of the global economic slowdowns that have occurred since the U.S. dollar was delinked from gold in 1971, they all have one thing that stands out clearly: in the early months of each contraction, the U.S. dollar always rose in price, and by a substantial amount. There is not a single exception to this rule.

You are certain to hear over the next several weeks that "gold is not responding" to the global economic slowdown. Remember that this is pure nonsense--it never "responds" initially, only later on. After everyone else has finally given up on gold for this supposed "lack of response", that will be the time to buy it in earnest--but not before." - Steven Kaplan, 14/8/07


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## explod

*Re: All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold*



barrett said:


> I had a listen to this.. he recently went long gold, and says of the recent correction, "what gold did was very uncharacteristic"... "gold failed to fulfil our enthusiasm for it".. "gold in every single case was the thing you made money on in crises" etc.
> 
> I don't know this guy and I don't wish to bag him out.. but this sort of jelly talk on gold has certainly started to pile up heavily at the shallow end of the commentary pool.  Based on historical precedent there is probably more weakness in gold to come, in the short to medium term: here is a useful quote from truecontrarian.com:
> 
> "If you look back at all of the global economic slowdowns that have occurred since the U.S. dollar was delinked from gold in 1971, they all have one thing that stands out clearly: in the early months of each contraction, the U.S. dollar always rose in price, and by a substantial amount. There is not a single exception to this rule.
> 
> You are certain to hear over the next several weeks that "gold is not responding" to the global economic slowdown. Remember that this is pure nonsense--it never "responds" initially, only later on. After everyone else has finally given up on gold for this supposed "lack of response", that will be the time to buy it in earnest--but not before." - Steven Kaplan, 14/8/07




Good post Barrett, nice to have your input.    

Initially in fear the instinct is to liquidate and get back into cash.    As the reserve currency the flight back into US dollars gives it support.   It is only sometime after the dust settles that some say "hey, dollars are losing value too" and look to other tangibles........bullion et al


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## explod

DOLLAR DECLINE PREDICTED 
Sub-prime shake-out continues but could be positive for gold price
As the sub-prime fallout continues there is the likelihood that the overall US economy will be adversely affected leading to a fall in interest rates and corresponding decline in dollar value which should be positive for the dollar gold price.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted:  Friday , 24 Aug 2007 

LONDON -  

It is remarkable how interlinked these days the world's financial sector has become. While the US and its institutions will have borne the brunt of the sub-prime lending fiasco, there is no doubt too that others around the world will be scratching to preserve their financial integrity and some, no doubt, may fail to do so creating even more doom and gloom in the financial markets.

The latest to report problems in the market include China's second largest bank, the Bank of China, whose stock fell by over 5 percent yesterday, despite strong profit figures, on news of a reported $9.7 billion exposure to sub-prime loans.  This follows on news of problems faced by other Asian banks and some major European ones.

So far, though, there does not appear to have been particularly significant default levels from holders of sub-prime mortgages in the US, but the fear that these will grow as house prices continue to slump seems to have been the principal factor in the financial crisis which has materialised.  Confidence is everything in the financial world!

There is also a feeling in the US, most recently expressed by global investment bank Goldman Sachs, that the shakeout will adversely affect the overall US economy which will force the Fed to cut interest rates, which in turn may drive down the value of the dollar assuming European interest rates in particular are not cut at the same time.

If the dollar continues to decline against major world currencies, then the pattern that the dollar gold price moves counter to the world value of the dollar currency should re-boost the gold price momentum which has largely stalled this year, Central Bank sales notwithstanding.  

It does seem that the recent high levels of Central Bank sales in the final weeks of this year's Central Bank Gold Agreement have helped mitigate a sharp gold price increase which might have been expected to have resulted from the dollar weakness and market mayhem.  It seems unlikely that sales will continue at such a high level come the end of September when this year's CBGA sales quota terminates, which could give a final quarter boost to the metal price.  The market had not been anticipating the level of Central Bank sales over the past three months and it has to be positive for gold that the price has remained pretty constant given the high disposal levels absorbed.


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## explod

METALS STOCKS
Gold futures score a weekly gain of almost $11
Dollar weakness, oil strength and growing gold demand lift metal's price
By Myra P. Saefong & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:25 PM ET Aug 24, 2007Print E-mail Subscribe to RSS Disable Live Quotes SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed Friday, with a decline in the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, rising gold demand and strength in oil prices helping the precious metal score a gain of almost $11 an ounce for the week. 

"Gold's summer sleepy season is coming to an end with the coming of gold's time of seasonal strength and peak demand from India and the Middle East and the Christmas jewelry season in the western world," said Mark O'Byrne, director at GoldandSilverInvestments.com. 
Gold for December delivery closed at $677.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday -- the contract's highest closing level since August 15. It was up $9.10 for the session and ended the week $10.70, or 1.6%, higher. 
A "fairly hefty decline" in the U.S. dollar, stronger crude oil, a "decent showing" in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and pre-seasonal physical offtake from India, provided support for gold Friday, said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in an afternoon email. 
"The danger the financial markets are in is not fully appreciated yet, but with the dollar trending lower again, the message will come through soon -- loud and clear," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "Last week's events parallel past situations, but none so global or so structural as now." See Commodities Corner for historical view. 
In comments emailed Friday, Phillips said "two financial tsunamis" were seen last week, one form emerging assets returning to the dollar, and another from "the U.S. moving out of the dollar and back into the yen. 
"Hence the exchange rate was not really noticed," he said. "This was a warning for the future." 
And "on the back of what's coming, expect good things for the precious metals," he said. 
In the meantime on Friday, traders were likely positioning themselves for the weekend, said David Beahm, a vice president at Blanchard. 
He pointed out that one of the largest Chinese banks has declared that it is exposed to subprime mortgages to the tune of over $9 billion. See full story. 
"Blanchard is predicting the gold market to stabilize much quicker than the financial markets," he said in emailed comments. "Gold has always been viewed a safe haven asset and investors will flock into gold as the subprime debacle continues." 
And "as we move into a period where demand is typically the strongest during the year, gold is positioned very well to break through $700 an ounce," Beahm said.


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## Sean K

bean said:


> I am at the moment waiting to see if a short term top in gold Indicies is tonight?



So, top last night, like there was on Monday or Tuesday? Or was that sometime last quarter?


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## explod

kennas said:


> So, top last night, like there was on Monday or Tuesday? Or was that sometime last quarter?





I cant' seem to find Bean's top.     In the gold Indices,  a strong bottom and reversal from Friday 17th August is very evident in my humble view.


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## Nick Radge

Here is one count to ponder with the Gold ETF. Any move above $68 looks bullish...









_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
_


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## Sean K

Nick Radge said:


> Here is one count to ponder with the Gold ETF. Any move above $68 looks bullish...



Might coincide with bullion breaking 83 ish....


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## GreatPig

Looks like the handle forming on that cup in A$ based on the GOLD stock.

Cheers,
GP


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## bean

kennas said:


> So, top last night, like there was on Monday or Tuesday? Or was that sometime last quarter?



I was looking for it last thursday night - It happened friday - Gold Indicies (not POG) Anyway what another sell off start this/next week?  First down- up - then down?


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## explod

Thus far the United States has avoided paying the piper for its economic sins because of the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency - what French president Charles DeGaulle called "the exorbitant privilege." Just over the past year though, a growing list of countries have switched course and begun substituting dollar holdings with other currencies and gold in their reserves. Unless something changes, the days of "exorbitant privilege" could be suddenly coming to an end. If so, the dollar will find itself under siege like it never has before.

When former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin tells us (as quoted in the masthead) it would be advisable to figure out some way to protect ourselves against a currency problem in the United States, he is referring to the loss of that exorbitant privilege. He doesn't mention gold, but one can read between the lines. There is every bit as much reason to own gold today as there was in 1997 when this study first made its appearance. In fact, the argument for gold has never been stronger.


The Alarming Growth in the U.S. National Debt

"It [this new budget approach] will retire nearly $1 trillion in debt over the next four years. This will be the largest debt reduction ever achieved by any nation at any time."

- President George W. Bush, February 28, 2001

During the four years following that Bush administration initiative, instead of reducing the national debt by $1 trillion, the federal government actually increased it from $5.7 trillion to $7.7 trillion. That's a $3 trillion dollar swing between hope and reality. Now, seven years later, the national debt stands at $8.9 trillion - nearly $30,000 for every man, woman and child in the United States. And there appears to be no end in sight to the fiscal madness. The debt clock ticks non-stop at the rate of about $1.3 billion per day.

I should point out that there is a difference between the "deficit" and "additions to the national debt."  The deficit often quoted by politicians and the mainstream press is discounted by borrowings from the social security fund - a machination meant to dilute the real budget deficit which is the actual addition to the national debt.



President Franklin Delano Roosevelt famously proclaimed that we shouldn't worry about the deficits because we owe them to ourselves. If the government pays interest, he said, we pay it to ourselves. There was a time when that argument might have held water, though to characterize government debt under any circumstances as benign is a bit specious. 

Even so, things have changed. First, we no longer owe it just to ourselves. We owe well over $2 trillion of it to foreign creditors, mostly Japan and China. Second, the effect of the national debt is far from benign. It is the principle driving force behind higher taxes, inflation and the depreciating dollar.  Third, few people know that in its own right interest on the national debt ranks third in federal budget outlays after military spending and social welfare entitlements.

When you blanch at the $50 to $75 it takes to fill your gas tank and suffer food prices running through the roof, think about the national debt. When Congress inevitably raises the income tax, think about the federal debt. When you hear about the dollar plummeting on foreign exchange markets, think about the federal debt. It is perhaps the most insidious, entrenched and debilitating of the disturbing trends threatening the nation and our economic well-being.

U.S. exports and imports were roughly in balance in 1970. In 1992, the trade deficit ballooned to $36.5 billion. By 1995, it had grown to $105 billion. By 2000, it had mushroomed to an incredible $378 billion. The estimate for 2007 is $700 billion or more. Needless to say, this is not what one could call an encouraging trend. Few can remember the last time the United States ran a trade surplus (which was 1975). Fewer still can remember a time when the U.S. did not rely on Asia and Europe to prop up its bond market (a quid pro quo, by the way, now threatened by Japan and China's newfound reluctance to take on more U.S. debt).

Mid-summer 2007 brought some even more discouraging news along these lines. With oil trading in the $75 per barrel range, the International Energy Association warned of a supply crunch developing over the next five years which could send oil prices to record levels. Since the United States imports roughly 60% of its oil, and oil in turn accounts for a significant portion of American imports, we should expect the trade deficit to worsen considerably in the years to come. Add accelerated growth in imports from developing countries like China and India, and you get a sense that the balance of trade numbers could be permanently stuck on a one way street going in the wrong direction. Trade and balance of payments is likely to dominate financial headlines for a long time to come. Alarming growth in the export-import imbalance is another Disturbing Trend sure to wreak havoc with the dollar and investor portfolios in the months to come.


The real rate of return is defined as what remains on savings or money market yields after taxes and inflation are subtracted. A currency which carries a positive real rate return tends to attract capital; a negative or low real rate of return encourages liquidation. In recent months, the British pound, European euro and a range of other currencies have reached milestones against the dollar precisely, for the most part, because those currencies are providing a real rate of return

This past May, the Labor Department reported consumer prices rising 5.5% annual rate. The yield on a typical money market account is currently running about 4.9%. 10-year Treasury paper yields in the 5.1% range if held to maturity. In either case, as you can see, the real rate of return is in the negative without factoring taxes into the equation. Once you factor in taxes at even 30%, the net return comes down in negative territory. In addition, many believe that the Labor Department's inflation numbers are politicized and greatly understated. If so the real rate of return is deeply in the negative. In short, the disappearing real rate of return on the dollar figures significantly into portfolio planning both within the United States and internationally, and looms large among the disturbing trends having an impact on the market for the dollar.

Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved


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## explod

Disturbing Trend #4
The Explosive Growth of Derivatives

"[T]he greatest risk facing financial markets and the global economy is the opaque, mysterious and complex activities of hedge funds."

- Alan Kohler

Derivatives' growth is a new addition to the disturbing trends table, but the late arrival shouldn't diminish its impact with respect to systemic risk. In 1995, the first year the Bank for International Settlements reported on derivative positions, the notional value en masse was roughly $47.5 trillion. By 2006, that notional value had risen to $415 trillion -- a nearly 875% increase.

The primary problem with derivatives is that so few truly understand the risk exposure they represent, even among the hedge fund managers who profess to be experts on the subject. What's more when things go bad, as they often do in the world of hedge funds and derivatives, the damage can extend quickly to the financial system as a whole and cause massive damage before anyone knows what happened. Ordinary losses can transform to extraordinary in the blink of an eye. There are now over 9000 hedge funds operating in the world financial markets, and an international debate rages as to the whether or not that is a good, or a bad, thing.

When you take into account that adding together the losses at LTCM, Amaranth and Bear Stearns (The Big Three derivative related meltdowns thus far) would not even comprise one tenth of one percent of the estimated $500 trillion notional volume, you begin to get a sense of the ominous danger lurking in the financial system as a whole. Any one of the three meltdowns mentioned above could have been enough as isolated instances to create a generalized panic and meltdown on Wall Street. Meanwhile Fed chairman Ben Bernanke tells us that there are between $50 billion and $100 billion in losses now rattling around the mortgage derivative market alone!

Please note that all three  instances occurred in different markets -- LTCM, Treasuries and  currency; Amaranth, natural gas; and Bear Stearns, mortgage securities -- giving credence to the argument that it is derivatives' instruments themselves which should be blamed for the meltdowns, and not market price action by itself. Floyd Norris, writing in the New York Times about the recent subprime mortgage meltdown, went so far as to say that the years of economic boom "were constructed on sand". The fact of the matter is that the financial landscape is littered with derivative-based timebombs ready to go off at any moment. The problem for investors, both individual and institutional, is that many have lost a great deal of money and don't even know it. Warren Buffett,  the sage of Omaha, put it best: "Derivatives are financial  weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."


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## explod

Disturbing Trend #5
The Alarming Growth of Foreign-held Debt

Foreign debt hangs like a sword of Damocles over the American economy. As our table illustrates this disturbing trend has shown the highest growth rate of them all. At this writing, foreign governments, institutions and individuals hold a collectively over $2 trillion of U.S. paper -- roughly one fourth of the national debt. Japan alone holds over $600 billion and mainland China over $400 billion. To suggest a measuring stick, federal tax receipts stand at roughly $2.2 trillion.

It is not just the presence of the debt itself which worries the inner sanctums of Wall Street, but the threat foreign-held debt represents to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Through the purchase and sale of U.S. Treasuries, foreign creditors can force interest rates up when the Fed would like to keep them down and force them down when the Fed would like to keep them up. In other words, the Fed very well may be losing control of interest rate policy. Recently, when the Congress threatened trade sanctions against China, the bond market began declining, thus pushing up interest rates. This foreign influence on Fed policy-making did not exist even five years ago.




There is an even darker aspect to the problem of foreign held debt, and that has to do with the international reaction to the future value of the dollar. If faith is lost, or even weakened to the extent that the trend to diversify out of dollars gathers steam, what is now a trickle of returning U.S. dollars could become a torrent. This, in turn, could trigger an uncontrollable inflation and dollar crisis globally.

Some analysts have pointed out that such an exodus would be farfetched in that the holders themselves would have a great deal to lose by unloading a large portion of their positions. The fact of the matter, though, is that the exodus has already begun. For example, Russia recently announced that it was juggling its reserves to purchase Japanese yen. Several Gulf oil producing states have quietly followed suit and are switching out of dollars and into both the euro and yen. Japan over the past year has actually reduced its Treasury position and Chinese officials recently suggested that its central bank might exchange some of its more than $1 trillion in reserves for gold and oil. Many nation states with large dollar holdings have formed sovereign wealth funds, the purpose of which is to utilize reserves to acquire other assets including hard commodities, natural resource companies and an array of other assets. Analysts often infer that their exodus will be controlled, but the problem with systemic crisis is that the evolution from a controlled liquidation to panic, particularly a panic in the ranks of private institutional funds, can come quickly and without warning. That said, even a slow-motion unraveling, or a simple withdrawal from regular U.S. debt purchases, could have a devastating effect on the value of the dollar.


Disturbing Trend #6
The Long-Term Decline of the U.S. Dollar

Would you own a stock that performed like the item represented in the graph below? The dollar is now a currency under siege. The cumulative effect of the disturbing trends outlined here has been to undermine the purchasing power of the dollar. In reality, it has been steadily debased in fits and starts since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. However, in recent years that steady debasement has taken on a more urgent character due to the combined threats of a shrinking market for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar as the chief reserve currency. Add the current problems in the mortgage markets, which have pushed several major banks against the ropes, and you have the potential for an imminent dollar crisis. We may no longer have to gaze into the distant future for a glimpse of what is to come for the dollar. The day of reckoning might very well have already arrived.

The 1913 dollar is now worth less than 5 ¢ in purchasing power. The 1945 dollar is now worth less than 10 ¢. The 1970 dollar is now worth 19.5 ¢. The 1985 dollar (during a time when we were told repeatedly inflation was benign) is now worth only 58 ¢. This disturbing trend is troublesome to say the least, but when you consider that the depreciation of a currency, when it comes to inflation, is technically infinite (in other words there really is no bottom), you begin to understand why some have begun to view gold as a permanent aspect to the contemporary portfolio.

To show you how far we've come in so short a time, consider this statement in November, 2002 from Federal Reserve governor Benjamin Bernanke when asked about the tanking U.S. economy and fears of a deflation were running high: "The US government has a technology called a printing press -- or, today, its electronic equivalent -- that allows (the Federal Reserve) to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost." How many of us would have ever imagined a statement like that being uttered by a member of the Federal Reserve? And now that same Benjamin Bernanke has been appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve.





Managing the gold component of your portfolio

"I still sleep better at night knowing that I hold some gold. If or when everything else falls apart, gold will still be unquestioned wealth. I understand Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sitting with $46 billion in cash, which I'm guessing is in US T-bills. But I wonder if Warren himself doesn't have a little box hidden away somewhere in Omaha, and that little box is filled with American gold Eagle coins. Warren's father was a big believer in gold, and some of daddy's philosophy probably rubbed off on Buffett."

- Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters

At the risk of being judged overly simplistic, let me say that there are three potential outcomes to these disturbing trends:

First, things could improve, or, in a sudden fit of political and economic sanity, stabilize on a course that would lead to a complete recovery.

Second, they could stay the same. In other words, what we've had is what we are going to get.

Third, they could get worse.  The long predicted collapse could actually occur.

If you believe that the first outcome is the most likely, you can stop reading here. You have no need to make any fundamental adjustments in your portfolio. If you are concerned, however, that either the second or third outcomes are most likely, then you will need to make some portfolio adjustments (if you haven't already), and those should center around the acquisition of gold.

One of the more interesting statistics in the accompanying table is the one that shows the stock market and gold turning in nearly identical performances over the thirty-seven year period covered by the study. This statistic might surprise many investors, including gold owners, given the amount of time the mainstream media spends dissing gold ownership, however, the numbers do not lie. What's more, cycle theory tells us that we are in the beginning years of the up-cycle for gold and the down-cycle for paper assets. The economic cycle favored tangibles - real estate, commodities and gold - from 1970 to 1985, and then turned in favor of paper assets in stocks and bonds. In 2002 the bear market for paper assets began as did the bull market for tangibles. If the duration of the past cycles holds true, the cycle top for hard assets should arrive sometime around 2017-2020. The point of taking you through this exercise is to show that gold looks to be about a third of the way through its bull cycle, while paper-based assets look to be about a third of the way in their long term bear market. The problems now present in the stock, bond and derivative markets are symptomatic of that larger trend. 

___________________


----------



## explod

If the economy goes retrograde (the third possible outcome), systemic risk, market volatility and economic instability will become household terms. As this economic drama unfolds, look for gold to take a step further and once again assume the role it played in European portfolios during its centuries of turmoil - when gold was a permanent portfolio mainstay and a standard recommendation by conservative money managers.

Keep in mind going forward, that due to declining production and capped central bank sales coupled with rising worldwide demand from a number of sectors (private and public), gold could become difficult to obtain in the event of a crisis. Also, be aware that the entire gold industry is probably smaller than a handful of major stock brokerage offices. It is not equipped to handle the kind of activity that would be generated by something like a stock market meltdown. Last, price should be seen as a secondary consideration if you either don't own gold, or don't own enough. For the reasons touched upon here, know that it is better to move now than to wait and open yourself to the very real possibility of a major disappointment should gold availability dry up.

If you are concerned about the trends described here, switching at least 10% of your portfolio to gold will go a long way toward providing peace of mind. If you have deeper concerns, it would be advisable to move that percentage incrementally higher with 30% as the top percentage diversification. Always, your gold holdings should be managed in a way that insures the preservation and expansion of your total wealth. Once you have achieved your desired goal, you should maintain it as a constant percentage otherwise you jeopardize the safety of wealth you have gained in other endeavors - professionally or as an investor. Do not make the mistake of resting on your laurels, or selling out your position simply because you have been impressed with your profits.

There is good reason for my emphasizing this approach. Consider, for a moment, the investor in Argentina who early in the crisis sold his gold for a hefty, inflation-induced profit. Though it looked good on his financial statement initially, months later when Argentina's economic system collapsed in totality, he found himself standing in line at the bank's door like most everyone else hoping to gain access to his accounts. The temptation to take a profit left him defenseless when the real problem finally manifested itself. I am often asked "How much gold is enough?" I respond with a question of my own, "How much savings is enough?" In the end, gold is simply a form of savings detached from the national currency. Its principle value lies in its unique status as a stand alone asset that requires no endorsement -- an asset that depends upon no individual or institution for value.


Final Note

The specific types of gold coins you purchase depends upon your goals. Your advisor at USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals can help you choose what best suits your needs. In general, if you want basic protection there's nothing like gold bullion or gold bullion coins, such as the U.S. Eagle or Buffalo, the Canadian Maple Leaf, Austrian Philharmonic or South African Krugerrand. If you want to add an extra layer of protection against government intervention in the gold market -- including potential capital controls and confiscation (a possibility during a currency crises) -- you should consider a selection of the lower premium European and U.S. pre-1933 gold coins, such as the U.S. $20 gold piece, British Sovereign, Swiss Helvetia, or the Dutch Guilder, et al which are also liquid and track the gold price.

___________________

For more information on the role gold can play in your portfolio, please see The ABCs of Gold Investing: How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold by Michael J. Kosares. 



Michael J. Kosares, founder and president
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Denver
_________________________________
Michael Kosares has over 30 years experience in the gold business, and is the author of The ABCs of Gold Investing: How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold, and numerous magazine and internet articles and essays. He is frequently interviewed in the financial press and is well-known for his on-going commentary on the gold market and its economic, political and financial underpinnings.


----------



## explod

For some light reflection on a Sunday arvo have been looking at the Gann time wheel.   Worth checking out but without going deep it is a circle set out as a 12 month calenda of commodity price fluctuations.

Anyway I decided to make a circular 12 month graph of the gold price peak for each year for the last 31 years with a surprising result.   Of the 31 years 26 of the peaks were between August 25 to February 10th.   12 of the peaks were between December 5 to Jan 10.    The busy season seems to begin from 4th September when Wall Street gets back into swing after the summer recess.

So we could from that expect some action in the gold price to begin this week but if we are looking for the big one it is most likely from 5th December through to 10th Feb when in that 60 odd day period we have had half of the tops


----------



## numbercruncher

May I make a suggestion if people are considering investing in physical Gold/Silver.

Gold - Australian $200 coins contain about 9 grams of gold each and sell for about $250 - only a small premium over their Gold content and are legal tender so effectively hedged at $200, just take them to a bank.

Aussie gold sovereigns are a great way to invest as well for Gold content and numismatic (collector) value. But you dont get the "hedging" effect as with the $200 coins.

Silver - $10 coins are good value same sort or principle, contain 20gms silver and often trade for about 15/20 each.

Happy Metal collecting


----------



## doctorj

I have about $300 worth (face value) of the old round 50c pieces.  They're not in collector condition, but I keep them for their silver content.

At current silver prices, each one is worth about $5* each.  A 10 bagger if you can pick them up for face value   In the early 80s, each one was worth as much as $15.

* Using 0.3416 oz of silver content per coin


----------



## explod

Nearly a Record

Gold ended August at $673.  Believe it or not, but it was
the third highest monthly close ever achieved.  Gold is only
$8.60, or 1.3%, away from making a record monthly closing
high.

To read the full alert, go to the GoldMoney home page and
click the link under the Founder's Commentary section:
http://goldmoney.com/en/index.php


----------



## Uncle Festivus

numbercruncher said:


> May I make a suggestion if people are considering investing in physical Gold/Silver.
> 
> Gold - Australian $200 coins contain about 9 grams of gold each and sell for about $250 - only a small premium over their Gold content and are legal tender so effectively hedged at $200, just take them to a bank.
> 
> Aussie gold sovereigns are a great way to invest as well for Gold content and numismatic (collector) value. But you dont get the "hedging" effect as with the $200 coins.
> 
> Silver - $10 coins are good value same sort or principle, contain 20gms silver and often trade for about 15/20 each.
> 
> Happy Metal collecting




A thought about this aspect of 'legal tender'. If I were to sell my investment property and nominate, say 1000 $200 gold coins as consideration for the transaction, how much CGT will I pay?

Assuming you could find a willing buyer who would do this, the actual 'value' received by me (another $50,000) would be somewhat higher due to the gold price at the time, but for taxation I only received $200,000?


----------



## numbercruncher

Uncle Festivus said:


> A thought about this aspect of 'legal tender'. If I were to sell my investment property and nominate, say 1000 $200 gold coins as consideration for the transaction, how much CGT will I pay?
> 
> Assuming you could find a willing buyer who would do this, the actual 'value' received by me (another $50,000) would be somewhat higher due to the gold price at the time, but for taxation I only received $200,000?




Interesting concept Uncle and one im sure you would need legal advice on!!


Makes me also wonder if the potential buyer was to buy from a dealer the said 1000 coins for 250k if there legal tender payment to you of 200k would allow them to claim a capital loss of 50k - making the transaction beneficial both ways!

We're a dodgy bunch aren't we lol


----------



## stockGURU

What's up with gold tonight? It's gone almost vertical, up around US$10 since trading in New York opened. 

Anyone know what's behind this move and will it finally crack US$700/oz in the short term?


----------



## Whiskers

stockGURU said:


> What's up with gold tonight? It's gone almost vertical, up around US$10 since trading in New York opened.
> 
> Anyone know what's behind this move and will it finally crack US$700/oz in the short term?




From Bloomberg @ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aonMoN_d9Vd0&refer=commodities

Gold Rises to 5-Week High on Equities Outlook; Silver Gains 

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a five-week high on speculation a rally in U.S. equities will boost investment demand for the precious metal. Silver also gained.

There goes that doomsday theory for now.


----------



## wayneL

stockGURU said:


> What's up with gold tonight? It's gone almost vertical, up around US$10 since trading in New York opened.
> 
> Anyone know what's behind this move and will it finally crack US$700/oz in the short term?



That's what a few short years ago, would have been called a "woodie".


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> That's what a few short years ago, would have been called a "woodie".




You got me there Wayne.

What's a 'woodie'?


----------



## Parag0n

If gold can break 692 US /oz then 720 US /oz this year then who knows what it will be this time next year... 650 US looks like the major support line. Either way gold is looking up at the moment... I expect a nice day for SGX, LGL, NEM, NCM on the ASX tomorrow.


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> You got me there Wayne.
> 
> What's a 'woodie'?




It's a chart that is basically going sideways and suddenly goes vertical. A little imagination is needed to see why it was called a woodie.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> From Bloomberg @ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aonMoN_d9Vd0&refer=commodities
> 
> Gold Rises to 5-Week High on Equities Outlook; Silver Gains
> 
> By Pham-Duy Nguyen
> 
> Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a five-week high on speculation a rally in U.S. equities will boost investment demand for the precious metal. Silver also gained.
> 
> There goes that doomsday theory for now.




As usual on Bloomberg (the crap spin doctors, and part of the Plunge Team)  trying to align the strength in gold to Equities outlook.   The dow actually contiues to be in a down trend from the beginning of June.  Gold in that time has been basically sideways to rising.  There  are sound fundamental reasons for golds rise and a lot of it was posted on this thread in recent times.

The overall drop in equities has been a great time to accumulate gold stocks, some of Uncle Festivus favs will rise strong today from the open.   Go SRI


----------



## bean

POG is looking quite strong.  The US Gold Indicies are I believe still following the US markets.
Is this correction over?  
I am still not getting a medium to long term buy on the Gold Indicies.
Short term is weak? (becoming overbought)
US Markets in general may be overbought (Nasdaq in particular)
13500 on the Dow (above and the bulls may be back in business?)

I was/am still looking for US Gold Indicies to make one final dive.


----------



## So_Cynical

stockGURU said:


> What's up with gold tonight? It's gone almost vertical, up around US$10 since trading in New York opened.
> 
> will it finally crack US$700/oz in the short term?





Well it "cracked" 500 Euro...thats a milestone...go gold


----------



## cuttlefish

Interesting article providing a bit of history of gold as a reserve as well as an overview current day issues affecting currencies and gold.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2036.html


----------



## vert

i like the look of the chart
above the blue line and who knows 
here comes 700


----------



## >Apocalypto<

vert said:


> i like the look of the chart
> above the blue line and who knows
> here comes 700




Fantastic chart vert!

I have been watching your posted charts and you're really powering a head!

good trading vert


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> Fantastic chart vert!
> 
> I have been watching your posted charts and you're really powering a head!
> 
> good trading vert




Not saying it will but the gold price is strong since our market closed tonight.  Between our market and the open in Europe the plunge team usually push gold down but it looks very different  tonight.

Our long patient wait may soon be through.   The rush from fiat, on a promise paper currencies, will see enourmous changes to the financial system and gold through the roof

This is not being negative, just a message that by investing in gold and gold shares you can take advantage of the situation.   Not that I like the implications of taking advantage, I feel for those losing their homes and those who are not able to see the picture unfolding.

Anyone new to the forums and wanting to get a good grounding on gold, the US dollar and related market influences should go through the posts of Uncle Festivus


----------



## explod

The price is looking good as promised


----------



## Nick Radge

streetTRACKS Gold (GLD) through $68.00. Looks positive...


----------



## powerkoala

here we go.
straight up back to 700 area.
are we heading to 1000 by end of the year?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nick Radge said:


> streetTRACKS Gold (GLD) through $68.00. Looks positive...




Mmmmm.... all very exciting, but will it break through?
Nick, how does this weekly view look from your perspective, still need to break the resistance?


----------



## explod

We must expect that some of this accumulation will be the plunge team, who will let loose big time to stop a close above $715 US, which when it occurs will be a 27 year high.  

The way it is all panning out the break, and it will come, will make for more intresting times.

Dont' worry Uncle, not too excited yet.  Optimism from the gloom needs facts.


----------



## GreatPig

In A$ with the GOLD stock, that cup and handle formation looking like a text book example so far, except perhaps that the handle might be a little higher than expected. Last trade $83.66.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable.
> 
> Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have cut their stash of US Treasuries by $48bn since late July, with falls of $32bn in the last two weeks alone.
> 
> "This comes as a big surprise and it is definitely worrying," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
> 
> "We won't know if China is behind this until the Treasury releases its TIC data in November, but what it does show is that world central banks are in a hurry to get out of the US. *They don't seem to be switching into other currencies, so it is possible they are moving into gold instead. Gold is now gaining momentum across all currencies and has broken through resistance at 500 euros," he said.*
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...CBQ0IV0?xml=/money/2007/09/05/bcnchina105.xml



...


----------



## explod

Well,... after a strong week for gold, and it being Friday thought the gold price would stop and go to sleep, but no, even in quiet trading the gold price continues to goes up.   

Of seeing things finally going the way I knew they would eventually I have relaxed and went to my Step Daughter's place, and have, as usual, been spoilt with two many good slugs of whiskey, and so..... perhaps not seeing things as clearly as I should.

But I am, gold is breaking up again

A very close friend said to me about 8 years ago now, " everything is f-ck-d, just forget it and party."  Can someone out there indicate that there is a way to restore things.    

The thing uppermost for me is, what have we done for the future of our Grandchildren.  Could we change direction and fix it.

A high gold price may well feather my nest in the short term, but what of its value if we have no water or bread to eat


----------



## So_Cynical

Gold mite break 700 USD tonight...

698.80 ATM


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bingo!


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Bingo!





Agreed, but as U say, dont' too get excited.   When we hit and stay above US$715 the audiencee will start listening.  Of course what we know and few others can comprehend is that when the penny (or realisation occurs) the gold price rise will profound even some of the goldbugs.   

But as said earlier in the day the plunge protection team will delay proceedings somewhat this evening our time.

However, very interesting times and I am with you Uncle


----------



## GreatPig

According to Kitco, the high last year was at US$720.10

Cheers,
GP


----------



## explod

GreatPig said:


> According to Kitco, the high last year was at US$720.10
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




True, but that was during the session, not a closing price.  We await what pans out.  Interesting times if one takes an interest, otherwise it probably matters little. 

Having said that I am sitting bolt upright


----------



## explod

Perhaps I spoke too soon, this break is very significant if it holds till the morning


----------



## numbercruncher

wow if this continues itll be self propelling im thinking just like carry trades as folks fix up there positions - Pretty good stuff really 


Great buying still IMHO, 703 peices of worthless green dollars for a whole rock solid ounce of gleaming timeless gold - Bargain!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I had buy orders on gold at 700 they were filled, I have taken profits call me crazy but I want to see a a new higher low before I commit serious money to this break out. I would like to see the price hold above 690-700 for that higher low.

at this point its looking promising


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> I had buy orders on gold at 700 they were filled, I have taken profits call me crazy but I want to see a a new higher low before I commit serious money to this break out. I would like to see the price hold above 690-700 for that higher low.
> 
> at this point its looking promising




Cooool,   I have been a hold since US$ 430,  probably masochistic, but dont' like risk.   Will sell around $6,000, but if the missus kicks the bucket,  a long term hold thanks Joe


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Cooool,   I have been a hold since US$ 430,  probably masochistic, but dont' like risk.   Will sell around $6,000, but if the missus kicks the bucket,  a long term hold thanks Joe




6000 now that's a target!

I am looking for any type of consolidation to resumption of trend. a us rate cut will really get this party going! hmm interesting times


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> 6000 now that's a target!
> 
> I am looking for any type of consolidation to resumption of trend. a us rate cut will really get this party going! hmm interesting times





From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900.   a ratio of more than 25 to one.

In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260  x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900.   a ratio of more than 25 to one.
> 
> In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260  x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts




very interesting analysis explod. 

hmmm wonder if any one is still holding from that 35$ price they must be having a shiny retirement now!


----------



## bean

In all my posts I have always said the gold stocks follow the US markets.
I think that has been proven true.

I always said that eventually POG and gold stocks will break free...
Tonight gives an idea. and last few days.

I still am expecting one final swoon in the gold stocks may start towards end of next week????

But the POG will be strong by the end of the year.

IT is the metal for 2008.
(except POS will be better)


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> I still am expecting one final swoon in the gold stocks may start towards end of next week????



Why the end of the week bean?


----------



## Bush Trader

Trade_It said:


> 6000 now that's a target!
> 
> I am looking for any type of consolidation to resumption of trend. a us rate cut will really get this party going! hmm *interesting times*




I believe that is a Chinise Curse, "May you live in interesting times!"

Cheers


BT


----------



## Kauri

I completely missed this climb in the POG..  .. am now looking for a spot of vertigo and a resultant stumble on the stairs to find a good retracement point to get on.. 
 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Why the end of the week bean?




Using run Analysis and various patterns.  and the system I referred with links on previous occassions.  Current run pattern on a couple of the US Gold Indicies is 1 down and two days up (could mark a top but it doesn't because of the size of the rise) 1 down 3 up can be a bullish pattern one down 4 up is bearish and has a 70% probability of a decline.
However 1 down and 5 up can mark a short term high.
Now using the Indicies they are currently breaking into short term (which means it may become overbought) It is also breaking into medium and long term.  once they turn postive in another two to three days rise they will be marking a high.  Because they are breaking into them it shows that they will continue to rise.  I know I am going to get a rise for at least two to three days.  That why I am 100%  in gold and silver stocks and I will be selling either wednesday or thursday.

POG gold is now up two days in a row run patterns on POG 5 days up in a row may mark a short term top.  

So I am/may be getting several confirmations.

But of course that high may be set the next day down then it could rise again after only one day down but I will see what it does once it has a down day.

The DOW may test 13000 mark may bounce so I also expect that to hold for two to three days when it gives its timing will probably be the same time the Gold Indicies are ready to have the down day?

"So when it has that big fall and Gold Indicies as well they may well have a couple of small up days before falling away into the low??  however I just have to watch the run patterns and see what develops"


----------



## explod

Not able to get a handle on you hypothesis Bean.

Seems to me that the movements of gold are now in reverse to that of the Dow.     Larger fall on Wall Street last night gold up.   In fact on the week gold is up 4% and the Dow is down 2%.

It was a tactic of the Plunge Protection Team, via Wall Street Spin Doctors to convey the idea that gold moves with the Dow, and that has now failed.  Some time previously (early this year) they tried the same stunt with the dollar index and gold, worked for awhile and that has failed.   Looking at the big picture gold is making a firm break and a close past $715 US with a continued and expected further fall of the US dollar will see the bull run in gold well and truly back underway.

Forget the dips now, it is time to get on and stay on board as the train increases in speed.

Just my humble opinion of course


----------



## Bush Trader

bean said:


> POG gold is now up two days in a row run patterns on POG 5 days up in a row may mark a short term top.
> 
> The DOW may test 13000 mark may bounce so I also expect that to hold for two to three days when it gives its timing will probably be the same time the Gold Indicies are ready to have the down day?
> 
> "So when it has that big fall and Gold Indicies as well they may well have a couple of small up days before falling away into the low??  however I just have to watch the run patterns and see what develops"





And what would be the fundamental precursor for this fall in the "Gold Indicies"?  Is it that Gold positions will be sold in order to cover other positions, margin calls, currency hedges etc?  Or will it be the central banks combined with the Plunge protection team, selling down Gold positions?


Cheers


BT

PS I wrote this prior to reading Explod's Post


----------



## bean

Bush Trader said:


> And what would be the fundamental precursor for this fall in the "Gold Indicies"?  Is it that Gold positions will be sold in order to cover other positions, margin calls, currency hedges etc?  Or will it be the central banks combined with the Plunge protection team, selling down Gold positions?
> 
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> BT
> 
> PS I wrote this prior to reading Explod's Post





The POG is strong and is breaking out and yes we are starting to see every now and again POG and the US gold Indicies move opposite from the DOW.

From the lows made on the 15Th August the US gold Indicies have advanced 20% and will advance 2-5% over next few days.

When the markets fell last time Gold Indicies went with the market - sellers needing liquidity - In a falling market first stocks some people sell are ones that they have made a profit - they try to keep it - The gold stocks Market CAP wise are small I think the market CAP of all the Gold stocks combined is less than the market CAP of Microsoft.

Last night both the Nasday and S&P 500 fell through the neckline of a head and shoulder pattern more than likely early next week they will try to get back to the neck.  If they fail which could be say wednesday or thursday night they they will fall as well and they seem to be alinging with what I am seeing in the gold Indicies topping on wednesday or thursday night and thats why I think the Gold Indicies will be drag back down one more time.

As for the POG It may well be caught in the downdraft  but I think we can all see that it is gaining strenght and the FED etc can no longer keep it in place.
And thats why I think this next down leg in the market will be the last for the Gold Indicies and (well POG isnt going to fall US540) POG (might not fall much at all) But the Gold Indicies may well drop back and make a double bottom??


I am a holder of physical Silver
(I believe the Gold/Siver ratio  Silver will move more in % wise to Gold and I think it is better value than Gold )

But for Stocks I move in and out  -  If there is a possibility of a large move  to the downside.  If I am wrong well I have to buy at a higher price  which I do not mind if its going to rise


----------



## explod

Yes, that is a fair rationale in my view Bean.

I am forming a view that the corrections of the past with the gold price are becoming less.    It seems to be in line with a view that, I think it was Uncle Fest., drew our attention to last week and that is that the money cartels (the banks) are becoming suspicious or each other's exposure to poorly backed debt.   As one of the things drying up liquidity, it initially dropped gold to some extent, but not great.   The loss of this liquidity could be making it more difficult to finance big short term buy ins for going long or short to move the market.   In the past the big buy in last Thursday would have been met with a fast sell off last night.  I had expected that to happen but because it did not I wonder at the view I am forming?

Be pleased to hear others on this.

Has there been a thread on The Plunge Protection Tream/Wall Street Spin, cannot find one, perhaps this could be a good direction of study

cheers explod


----------



## So_Cynical

explod said:


> From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900.   a ratio of more than 25 to one.
> 
> In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260  x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts



I posted the same figure in another forum and had my post removed.

And i still don't really believe it will get there any time this decade, however 
ive been doing some research and found out world production is falling 
over all...so every year theres less and less gold coming outa the ground
eventually golds gona get super expensive.


----------



## michael_selway

explod said:


> From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900.   a ratio of more than 25 to one.
> 
> In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260  x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts




Hi but it didnt last long at $900 back in 1980?

thanks

MS


----------



## explod

michael_selway said:


> Hi but it didnt last long at $900 back in 1980?
> 
> thanks
> 
> MS




Agreed and I do not suggest that it will play out that way this time.  In fact it may go higher or lower, that is the way of the markets.

However the flight from falling values in currencies will start a stampede, and like the Dot.com bubble, the housing bubble et.al. we know that they go beyond the pale before a collapse.  It is suggested that with gold we are a long way from that now. The trick is to know when to get in and when it is overbought so as to jump off.

Yes the spike in 1980 was only for a day but for the cooler heads there was a further rally to US $780 six months later.  

On the standards of 1980 the propertion of investors today would be many times greater, but the gold pool by comparison is now a very small part of the financial pool.   So this dynamic is very much greater.

In todays Melbourne Age  Heelna Keers reports

"...Net retail investment in gold rose by 51 per cent in tonnage terms to 132.9 tonnes and 60% in $US terms to $2.9 billion in the last quarter to June.

Meanwhile, global demand hit $US14.5 billion, buoyed by 317 tonnes of demand from India, which was equivalent to half of global gold production for the quarter.  Chinese demand also rose 32 per cent to 76 tonnes, while the Middle East rose 20 per cent to 97.5 tonnes compared with the same period in 2006."     [end quote]

So gold is a very finite resource and further loss of confidence in currencies, particularly the US dollar will see some very interesting developments


----------



## cuttlefish

explod said:
			
		

> but the gold pool by comparison is now a very small part of the financial pool.




this is the key - and central banks have been selling down gold while the amount of USD has increased exponentially. *if* gold reverts to being seen as a currency once again then this is the ultimate counter cylical investment and the run/spike could significantly surprise.  Unfortunately serious USD instability has potential other negative consequences that could overshadow a gold price run.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> this is the key - and central banks have been selling down gold while the amount of USD has increased exponentially. *if* gold reverts to being seen as a currency once again then this is the ultimate counter cylical investment and the run/spike could significantly surprise.  Unfortunately serious USD instability has potential other negative consequences that could overshadow a gold price run.




Thanks Cuttlefish.  I would be pleased if you could elaborate on what you believe the negative consequences of US dollar instibility would be on gold


----------



## cuttlefish

I don't see any negative consequences on gold (gold will benefit from currency instability).  I see non-finance related potential consequences of severe USD instability because it will affect the US position in the world political landscape.


----------



## explod

The following is from a weekly alert I recieve.   The full alert with charts is well worth a read as it puts together a good idea of where we are headed this week in gold.   go to <alert@goldmoney.com>


Founder's Commentary  


Finally, $700 - What’s Next?

Gold finally reached $700. Once again gold achieved an important milestone. It took a lot longer to reach $700 than I was expecting, but that's OK. The extra time enabled us to accumulate more gold in the $600s than otherwise would have been the case if central banks weren't selling gold. The pace at which central banks sold gold in recent months rose significantly. 

For example, some 67 tonnes were sold in July, which is nearly one-third of the weight of gold newly mined in that month. That high rate of dishoarding makes it appear that central banks were desperate to keep gold from climbing higher as the subprime woes continued to build. Why? Because the message given by a rising gold price is one that the central banks don't like. So they would rather try to kill the messenger than face the reality that the dollar is not worthy of being the world's reserve currency. But these central banks were doing us a favor, enabling us to get rid of dollars and other fiat currencies by buying gold at prices that would otherwise not be possible if central banks weren't dishoarding.

Government intervention inevitably fails. It doesn't change underlying economic fundamentals, and if anything, government intervention messes things up even more. It distorts the market process, giving false signals. People act on those signals, and end up making bad decisions, causing even more problems. Take the mortgage mess as an example. It is now generally accepted that the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan kept US dollar interest rates far too low for much too long in the early part of this decade. Money was too cheap, and people borrowed this cheap money building too many homes and condos that only made commercial sense when viewed in an artificially low interest rate environment. Those days are gone.

Today's reality is entirely different. Counterparty risk is becoming increasingly important, as explained in my August 12th alert, "The Search for a Safe Haven".

This search continues, and as a consequence, it answers the question I pose in the title above. What's next for gold? It's headed higher as more and more people come to understand that gold does not have counterparty risk. That it also remains undervalued is another important point that will identify gold not only as a safe haven, but a good valued one too.


----------



## BlueDaze

CHARTWORKS - SEPTEMBER 7, 2007

*Gold - Technical Update*
Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca

Bob Hoye snippet
Institutional Advisors
Sep 10, 2007

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye091007.html

Gold held well during the liquidity crisis of August and has now managed to produce a new high for the year. We look for an *initial target of $725* followed by a *primary objective of $775*. The time window for a high is during the weeks of *September 27th or October 5th*.

Breakouts are always important; however a failure to hold $685 and the 20-day moving average on any pullbacks will be considered a failure.

*Gold COT*

The commitment of trader's data has been supportive of the bullion price since the end of June. The commercials are short less than 100,000 contracts while the speculators have less than 80,000 longs as of the most recent report. It should take an increase in their commitments in excess of 60k to produce enough vulnerability to generate the next high in gold prices.

*Seasonal Tendencies favor a rally in stocks into September-October*. In the past ten years the precious metal indices (XAU, HUI, TSX Gold) have rallied well from July through September-October. A closer analysis shows that the rally from August 17th should take 6 to 7 weeks, providing a time window for a *high during the weeks of September 27th to October 5th*.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Gold is holding 700 after another test if it tests it again then 700 is support.

there was a very good accumulation base to validate this new break out.

I am still on the lines letting the price sought its self out, waiting on a fresh push to confirm this move.

Good trading


See chart


----------



## ducati916

I would say that currently Gold represents speculation of a US Fed. rate cut that Bernanke is widely believed to be bringing to the market.

Should the rate cut not materialize, then see if Gold can hold it's present level.

jog on
d998


----------



## Sean K

ducati916 said:


> I would say that currently Gold represents speculation of a US Fed. rate cut that Bernanke is widely believed to be bringing to the market.
> 
> Should the rate cut not materialize, then see if Gold can hold it's present level.
> 
> jog on
> d998



I agree. If it's not at least 50 points I think POG will take a shalacking.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> I agree. If it's not at least 50 points I think POG will take a shalacking.




The gold price has continued to rise in the last year or two in spite of a number of interest rate rises in the US for that period.   Would be interested in some elaboration.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> The gold price has continued to rise in the last year or two in spite of a number of interest rate rises in the US for that period.   Would be interested in some elaboration.




POG hasen't risen in the last 15 months? May 06 high???

I anticipate a buy the rumour/see the fact event. It seemed clear to me that POG was appreciating due to the expectation of a significant rate cut and further USD weakness. If it even comes in as expected I think POG will come off. If Benster doesn't drop the rates at all then I'll be feeling some hurt.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> I anticipate a buy the rumour/see the fact event. It seemed clear to me that POG was appreciating due to the expectation of a significant rate cut and further USD weakness. If it even comes in as expected I think POG will come off. If Benster doesn't drop the rates at all then I'll be feeling some hurt.





If they drop rates it will help gold, if they dont', sub-prime will get worse, which will help gold, if rates go up, problem will worsen which will help gold.  They are running out of (in fact they no longer have any) options


----------



## Kimosabi

The price of Gold will keep going up and up, because more and more people are realising that the modern money and financial systems are a SCAM and the only real money on the Planet is still GOLD and SILVER...


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> If they drop rates it will help gold, if they dont', sub-prime will get worse, which will help gold, if rates go up, problem will worsen which will help gold.  They are running out of (in fact they no longer have any) options



I agree, I'm just thinking short term pain. I think the break through $690 will be shortlived if the rates aren't changed.


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> POG hasen't risen in the last 15 months? May 06 high???
> 
> I anticipate a buy the rumour/see the fact event. It seemed clear to me that POG was appreciating due to the expectation of a significant rate cut and further USD weakness. If it even comes in as expected I think POG will come off. If Benster doesn't drop the rates at all then I'll be feeling some hurt.




The POG is making 12 month high on comex. over last few night.
The cash price has risen the last three days straight.

Yes agree the POG may/will come off - if the rate is cut.
However 
Think of the Markets they have already factored it in!!!
The cliff edge for them is near and it is not going to be pretty.

I am still looking for POG and gold Indicies to rise at least anothrer 1 if not 2 nights.  Hopefully POG may get to about 720 - 725 ?? 

And the Gold Indicies if they do can fall in Unison with the general market.

PS I was reading about a 60 minute chart on the DOW has formed a diamond - indicating a break out of about 1200 points when it does break.
If only we new which direction???


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> The POG is making 12 month high on comex. over last few night.
> The cash price has risen the last three days straight.
> 
> Yes agree the POG may/will come off - if the rate is cut.
> However
> Think of the Markets they have already factored it in!!!
> The cliff edge for them is near and it is not going to be pretty.
> 
> I am still looking for POG and gold Indicies to rise at least anothrer 1 if not 2 nights.  Hopefully POG may get to about 720 - 725 ??
> 
> And the Gold Indicies if they do can fall in Unison with the general market.
> 
> PS I was reading about a 60 minute chart on the DOW has formed a diamond - indicating a break out of about 1200 points when it does break.
> If only we new which direction???



Bean, aren't you still calling at $540 POG before the big rise.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ducati916 said:


> I would say that currently Gold represents speculation of a US Fed. rate cut that Bernanke is widely believed to be bringing to the market.
> 
> Should the rate cut not materialize, then see if Gold can hold it's present level.
> 
> jog on
> d998




That is a excellent point, It's been weighing on my mind when I view this latest break out.

If the fed does not cut rates then this will head south very fast, there will be a lot of hope buyers in gold right now banking on a rate cut, were it finds support is the true gauge of the market sentiment to the value of Gold.

good trading


----------



## scuffler

some interesting points made here. May i ask for forecasts on POG at years end.
I think it has every chance of between $750 and $775.


  Would be silly not to have at least a couple of goldies in your portfolio.


----------



## Sean K

scuffler said:


> some interesting points made here. May i ask for forecasts on POG at years end.
> I think it has every chance of between $750 and $775.
> 
> 
> Would be silly not to have at least a couple of goldies in your portfolio.



Would be a total @rse pluck IMO, scuffer. Too much water under the bridge between now and then. I will be very happy if it holds above $700, but who knows what's going to crop up......


----------



## GreatPig

Possible buying recently as well in anticipation of another event to mark the 9/11 anniversary?

Cheers,
GP


----------



## explod

scuffler said:


> some interesting points made here. May i ask for forecasts on POG at years end.
> I think it has every chance of between $750 and $775.
> 
> 
> Would be silly not to have at least a couple of goldies in your portfolio.




The movements in gold have been fairly stable for the last 12 months moving in a slight upwards swing channel of little more than US$40 and ounce to high low.  In 2006 the swings were up to $150 and ounce.   As the markets are becoming volatile and unsettled so too will gold, particuarly if we have a breaking close past US$715 an ounce.  The swings could very soon return to that of 06 where we could see gold hit US$800 plus and indeed back to Bean's area of $640.  Of course by making the highs, at a 26year level considerable general market attention will come into play.

Not a subscriber but I noted last week that Fat Profets predict gold to reach $1,000 later this year.    Given the way the US dollar is heading and the general market uncertainty this may well prove to be close to the mark


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> we could see gold hit US$800 plus and indeed back to Bean's area of $640.



Bean's claiming $540. I have a beer on it I think.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Bean's claiming $540. I have a beer on it I think.




Thanks for picking me up Kennas and sorrry Bean for missreading your post.

In my view I think the gold train has too much momentum for a drop to that level in the forseeable future, but one can never say never.  Strong support round the 610 to 630 area.   However it will be interesting to see what pans out.


----------



## numbercruncher

NCM in a trading halt to raise 2b to close out its hedging means only one thing to me


----------



## cuttlefish

Imo in some ways gold is serving both the fear and the greed side of the equation at the moment.  

Rate cuts, excess money supply (inflationary?), fears of USD devaluation = gold rise.  

No rate cut = fears of more sub-prime blowouts leads to lack of confidence in US banking system leads to USD devaluation, flight to safety of gold, also means fed thinks economy is still growing fast enough to not risk a cut (inflationary?).


----------



## Ageo

Kimosabi said:


> The price of Gold will keep going up and up, because more and more people are realising that the modern money and financial systems are a SCAM and the only real money on the Planet is still GOLD and SILVER...





Just to clarify silver isnt worth much. 

Pays 0.49c per gram where is Gold pays $27 per gram at todays prices. I understand your point that these commodities have more value than paper but silver is still a long way behind (too much supply i believe unlike gold and platinum).


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> Just to clarify silver isnt worth much.
> 
> Pays 0.49c per gram where is Gold pays $27 per gram at todays prices. I understand your point that these commodities have more value than paper but silver is still a long way behind (too much supply i believe unlike gold and platinum).




Beg to differ, silver is in fact is a better proposition than gold, the following is from the Monex Deposit Company:-

 "There may never be a better time for buying silver bullion than right now.  World demand for silver now exceeds annual production, and has every year since 1990. Above ground stockpiles of silver bullion are low, shrinking rapidly and approaching zero. Since the end of WWII, for example, the U.S. government - once the largest stockpiler of silver on the planet - has dumped billions and billions of ounces of silver bars onto the world market, effectively depressing silver prices. Today, that government silver hoard is gone . . . and now the U.S. government is a silver buyer. For these reasons, silver bars represent an outstanding investment opportunity."  [end quote]


----------



## bean

Ageo said:


> Just to clarify silver isnt worth much.
> 
> Pays 0.49c per gram where is Gold pays $27 per gram at todays prices. I understand your point that these commodities have more value than paper but silver is still a long way behind (too much supply i believe unlike gold and platinum).




I think you had better do some research on silver.  
To see what its usages are and what there is left.

All the Gold ever mined in the world still exists
Silver will increase greater than gold % wise

Once this correction is over I will be pushing Silver.
I will put various links on Silver site for reading


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Bean's claiming $540. I have a beer on it I think.




I posted this on saturday


> Last night both the Nasday and S&P 500 fell through the neckline of a head and shoulder pattern more than likely early next week they will try to get back to the neck. If they fail which could be say wednesday or thursday night they they will fall as well and they seem to be alinging with what I am seeing in the gold Indicies topping on wednesday or thursday night and thats why I think the Gold Indicies will be drag back down one more time.
> 
> As for the POG It may well be caught in the downdraft but I think we can all see that it is gaining strenght and the FED etc can no longer keep it in place.
> And thats why I think this next down leg in the market will be the last for the Gold Indicies and (well POG isnt going to fall US540) POG (might not fall much at all) But the Gold Indicies may well drop back and make a double bottom??




I expect the gold stocks to fall back one more time.  
I also expect the POG will be caught up as well in the downdraft for liquidity.
540 well a bit to far now isn't it.  How far??

Tonight will be interest to see what POG reaches
And hopefully a good day in Aussie gold stocks tomorrow.


----------



## Ageo

Maybe true fellas but jewellery shops have ****loads of silver that you can pick up for penuts...

I have about 20kg worth of silver here. Maybe i should hang onto it?


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> Maybe true fellas but jewellery shops have ****loads of silver that you can pick up for penuts...
> 
> I have about 20kg worth of silver here. Maybe i should hang onto it?




Don't know about that, local jeweller has a half kilo bar of silver under his counter case at $345, can buy the same off AJ Mattheys today at $226


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> Don't know about that, local jeweller has a half kilo bar of silver under his counter case at $345, can buy the same off AJ Mattheys today at $226




Thats right, its dirt cheap compared to gold and platinum. I know prices have almost doubled each year from 2002 (roughly) but you would need to buy shatloads and wait a while to be better off (unless something happens in the next few yrs). I will take all your word on it 

Anywayz this is a gold thread so sorry for the hijack


----------



## buggalug

Was reading this and thought you guys might find it interesting:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB118943551053922601.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo


----------



## explod

buggalug said:


> Was reading this and thought you guys might find it interesting:
> http://online.barrons.com/article/SB118943551053922601.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo




Excellent reference Buggalug,  this is very much what we have been postulating on the thread but it is good to get confirmation.

Go Uncle Festivus


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Excellent reference Buggalug,  this is very much what we have been postulating on the thread but it is good to get confirmation.
> 
> Go Uncle Festivus




Um....?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Um....?




Sorry Unc, was getting excited yesterday and looks like this is why


----------



## Sean K

Newcrest and Lihir will merge eventually to save the Australian gold industry from being totally in foreign hands.

The talk of the past 2 years has been that NCM and LGL will eventually be taken by one of the Majors. I reckon that before that is allowed to happen, these two will be into bed together to create an Australain gold behemoth! 

(I hope. I think it could be good for both. )


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> 540 well a bit to far now isn't it.  How far??



No, no, no, beanster! No retracing now.


----------



## dubiousinfo

kennas said:


> Newcrest and Lihir will merge eventually to save the Australian gold industry from being totally in foreign hands.
> 
> The talk of the past 2 years has been that NCM and LGL will eventually be taken by one of the Majors. I reckon that before that is allowed to happen, these two will be into bed together to create an Australain gold behemoth!
> 
> (I hope. I think it could be good for both. )




Oxiana and Zinifex to merge and then take over Lihir. Now that would be a behemoth that would take some swallowing.


----------



## bean

Sold today is the High in Place?

High on the 19th July 
The Gold Indices usex,hui,xau 
16.7 158.11 371.11 

LOW on the 16th August 
13.37 125.64 300.14 

Todays close 
16.24 155.47 366.98 

They have retraced, 86% 92 % 94% 

I was for the final low was also looking for an ABC correction Was todays close the end of wave B 

I currently on one index have a run pattern (which I have been looking for ) 
One down four up (of course the run pattern may not be finished) 
But one Index in that system I refer to went from negative to positive (which can mark a top or within a day of top). 
Gold up 4 days in a row can of course rise more in a row but % in doing that decreases (but if it is breaking out well can do) 
The US markets themselves last weekend I mention how they fell through head and shoulder patterns and would this week make there way back to the neckline. (which they nearly have) 
Also 
From a site I go to that has charts on Dow 

“The Daily and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow continues to build out within the boundaries of the large triangle range, which continues to be the major long term pattern to watch in the charts. The index is approaching the top of the pattern at 13,450, but more development within this range is likely before a breakout occurs. As we mentioned before, a breakout in either direction from this pattern could yield a move of about 1,200 points, so continue to watch it closely.” 

The bottom of that triangle is 13050. 

I seem to be having everything thing in place, However I may be wrong about the direction 

I have the possibility of getting my 20-30% decline in the gold Indices to the final bottom 
And we have the Dow falling a least 10% 
POG (I do not have a price on the bottom!!!) 

In a matter of days we will know if I am right 
And hopefully if I get a pattern the bottom in POG and Gold stocks will be in place in about 2-3 weeks from today


----------



## rustyheela

just seen on ABC finance Alan Kohler was saying South African gold production is the lowest since 1922!! make of that what you will!!


----------



## So_Cynical

South African production has been falling since the 70s
world production has been falling since 2001.


----------



## bean

High on the 19th July 
The Gold Indices usex,hui,xau 
16.7 158.11 371.11 

Yesterdays Close 
16.24 155.47 366.98 

Todays close 
16.15 155.75 366.18 

I currently on one index have a run pattern (which I have been looking for ) 
One down four up ( 70% probability of preceding a decline other % wise it could just flop around for a few, or could be bullish! ) 

 “one Index in that system I refer to went from negative to positive (which can mark a top or within a day of top)”. 
Which it did but it may be showing me something else. I will know soon enough. 

THEY DROPPED O/K not by much but they dropped that is all that was require by the signals. 

I entered the various date and prices of the Indices yesterday and today as they now come into play 

Yesterdays closing prices and the highs on the 19th July is now the resistence range. 

So the action of the next few days will be interesting. 
With resistence you can break through but you have to hold. 
The ideal bearish scenario will be up for the next day or two then failure, 
But will look at each day as it comes

I also mentioned at the weekend POG ‘may’ get to US 720 – 725 range 

Also Still in play 

 “The Daily and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow continues to build out within the boundaries of the large triangle range, which continues to be the major long term pattern to watch in the charts. The index is approaching the top of the pattern at 13,450, but more development within this range is likely before a breakout occurs. As we mentioned before, a breakout in either direction from this pattern could yield a move of about 1,200 points, so continue to watch it closely.” 

The bottom of that triangle is 13050. 

I seem to be having everything thing in place, However I may be wrong about the direction 

I have the possibility of getting my 20-30% decline in the gold Indices to the final bottom 
And we have the Dow falling a least 10% 
POG (I do not have a price on the bottom!!!) 

In a matter of days we will know if I am right


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> *In a matter of days we will know if I am right *



Bean, can you please recap exactly what you will be right about. Thanks.

Exactly.


----------



## barrett

On gold sector timing – the indicator I pay most attention to when deciding when to buy gold stocks is the XAU:spot ratio, the XAU Philadelphia gold stock index divided by the spot gold price.  _At the end of every major correction in the gold sector for the past 25 years, this ratio has fallen below 0.2._  The most recent breach of this level was mid August ‘07.  Typing $XAU:$GOLD into www.stockcharts.com gives a graph of the ratio.

In early ‘05 John Doody from the Gold Stock Analyst newsletter did a retrospective study of the XAU:gold ratio as a buy signal.  The trading rule was that a buy signal would be generated if the XAU:gold ratio fell below 0.2; the holding period would be six months, and if during this time the ratio again dropped below 0.2, the holding period would be extended by six months from that date.  From 1982-2004 there were 8 buy signals, and _the average annualised gain in the XAU over the subsequent holding period was 63.1% _(range 11.7% - 85.1%).  The holding periods ranged from 184 days to 804 days but were usually less than 400 days.   

In the period since 2001, _each of the three major uplegs in gold stocks has begun with the XAU:spot ratio falling below 0.19 twice within a two-month period _(ratio is graphed in the middle data series of the chart below).  Using this indicator you would have been buying the gold stock index at the exact bottoms in November 2001, March 2003 and May 2005, and making gains of 80-100% each time in the following 6-12 months.  Notice on the chart, there have been two false bottoms where the ratio fell below 0.19 only once before heading up.  This suggests that while <0.19 or even <0.2 is a safe time to buy gold stocks, the most aggressive gold stock buying during this bull market should be reserved for when the indicator breaches 0.19 twice consecutively.

So far this year, the ratio has fallen below 0.19 once – in mid August.  50% of my portfolio is long term holdings of gold mining stocks and I am waiting until the ratio falls below 0.19 once again before deploying my remaining cash in gold stocks.


----------



## barrett

The above chart is from www.theglobalspeculator.com.au, an Australian gold investment website with free newsletter, worth a look.  They are associated with goldnerds.com.au, who run a subscription data service on Australian gold stocks.

Another take on the XAU:gold ratio: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=16024


----------



## barrett

In addition to the XAU:gold ratio, various other technical and fundamental indicators suggest to me that gold stocks are yet to make their final bottom for 2007:

1.  The commitment of traders in the US dollar (see http://www.cftc.gov/) shows that the commercials are very heavily net long the US dollar: long 16,918 contracts and short only 2400 contracts, about a 7:1 ratio.  This setup usually precedes a sharp rally in the US dollar, which would be expected since the US dollar has rallied strongly at the beginning of every global economic slowdown since the early 1970s - and since as Marcus Padley acknowledged on Lateline Tuesday night, there is nearly a total bearish consensus among analysts on the US dollar.

2.  The latest commitment of traders in gold shows the commercials net short 124,000 contracts, which means that industry insiders are too bearish in the short term.  At the 2001, 2003 and 2005 major bottoms the commercials were always short less than 50,000 contracts (and at major bottoms in prior years the commercials were typically substantially net long).  So the gold COT strongly suggests that the major bottom for 2007 gold is not yet in.

3.  Insider share purchases in the gold sector, a typical feature of major bottoms, have been very sparse even around the middle of August, and in fact last week there were a number of insider sales including at Royal Gold (RGLD) and US Gold (UXG).

4.  Many segments of the corporate debt market are still frozen.  If crunch time comes it will be no different to any previous time - money will first flow into US dollars, due to the need to get liquid - not into gold, at first.

5.  The US bond market is forecasting a serious economic slowdown, with the two-year treasury yield continuing to fall sharply – so far 220 basis points in 3 months.

6.  Silver is not confirming gold: silver technicals are weak.

7.  Gold is short-term overbought on just about every technical indicator there is, having rallied from $642 to $712 in less than a month.  From a technical standpoint a sharp correction and even sharper sell-off in the gold stocks would not be surprising, causing the XAU:gold ratio to again retest 0.19 (it is currently 0.217).


To re-iterate - 50% of my portfolio is currently in gold stocks.  The XAU:gold ratio suggests that substantial gains are ahead in the coming year or so for gold stocks - I don’t want to discourage anyone from buying.  But to my mind the above is enough evidence that a better buying opportunity will soon be available to wait before buying more.  If the XAU:gold ratio retests the 0.19 level in the coming month I will deploy my remaining cash in gold stocks.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: 
I hold LGL, RSG, OGD, SGX on the ASX
And AUY, GG, SSRI on the US exchange

And looking to buy:
ASX: more of the above + NEM, SBM, NCM
NYSE: SLW, MFN, RGLD, SIL
TSX: DMM.TO, NGG.V (the McNeils' other company - New Guinea Gold) 
and others


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Bean, can you please recap exactly what you will be right about. Thanks.
> 
> Exactly.




The resistence the gold indices are at.

To confuse you even more

High on the 19th July 
The Gold Indices usex,hui,xau 
16.7 158.11 371.11 

Yesterdays Close 
16.24 155.47 366.98 

Todays close 
16.15 155.75 366.18 

The top of support range for those indices over the next three days.
Remember does not use moving averages but it does use numbers and cycles
so can be quicker moving.

16.12   158.11    371.11

As you can see they are in resistence.
This occurence does not happen often but its winding up for a large move.

HUI XAU  both issued a signal last night could be top or within day of top???
There is definetly something big ready to happen.
 I will know in next couple of days depending on the action


----------



## bean

Note because the hui and xau issued a signal last night there support moved to a different cycle to the userx.


----------



## explod

I am not convinced by the evaluations of Bean or Barrett.  The US dollar continues to weaken and the gold price is in a typical consolidation phase.  There is established support now at US$700 per ounce, which goes back to 1980.   As well the fundamental demand now kicking in supports my feeling to hold long at this time.   

Not saying I am right, just my take


----------



## Nicks

bean said:


> I will know in next couple of days depending on the action




We all will by then Bean.


----------



## robandcoll

The year 2007 is the slowest production of gold since the year 1922.


----------



## Kauri

Is it on a stairway to heaven... or going to drop like a _Led Balloon_??   
         Cheers
..................Kauri


----------



## barrett

It will go up like a rocket - but the rocket has to refuel first imo


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> It will go up like a rocket - but the rocket has to refuel first imo




Yep, needs to hold above long term support at US$700 (which actually goes beack to 1980/81) with consilidation, and yes up like a rocket from there.  But could be a further shake out yet as alluded to by Bean, but not that low however.

Fundamentally, US dollar is at an all time low and continuing to weaken.  Interesting the press seem to be avoiding this event.   Not lost on the gold bugs however.


----------



## bean

Last night the Indices moved a little XAU rose while the hui and userx fell.
At the moment they are stuck in resistance and support
These ranges are only the same for another day or so.  
A couple of the indices issued another signal last night Could it be a short term bottom last night or tonight?  I did say a small % wise could be bullish but if it is it may only last a few days (false breakout).


----------



## Edwood

potential bearish bat forming on gold, could be worth watching


----------



## Sean K

Edwood said:


> potential bearish bat forming on gold, could be worth watching



690 has to be considered support now doesn't it? I suppose it needs to be tested.....


----------



## Edwood

Hi Kennas - if that bearish pattern plays out it will be going a lot lower than 690 (but it will have to test 690 first of course if it is going lower.)  could also continue on up from here & negate the pattern - just flagging it as something to be aware of but not to trade off - ie with these auto-generated harmonics I follow my normal entry signals but keep an eye on them.  here's one from kiwi-sterling which played out nicely


----------



## Edwood

but if the credit squeeze really kicks in & we get a run on the banks you'd have to think gold is going to rocket


----------



## wavepicker

Edwood said:


> but if the credit squeeze really kicks in & we get a run on the banks you'd have to think gold is going to rocket




Interesting charts Edwood.  Is the  Pesavento type analysis you are using??


I am mulling over Gold at present. There has been so much hype and bullishness surrounding this advance that I can't help feeling that it may not rocket as much as most expect, as such I am gonna sit this one out. There is a major time cycle due at years end for the USD, most pairs and the precious metals.

This last leg of the USD still resembles an Ending Diagonal that is approaching completion(although is not there yet)

Cheers


----------



## Edwood

wavepicker said:


> Interesting charts Edwood.  Is the  Pesavento type analysis you are using??
> I am mulling over Gold at present. There has been so much hype and bullishness surrounding this advance that I can't help feeling that it may not rocket as much as most expect, as such I am gonna sit this one out.
> Cheers




Hi Wavepicker - yes its an automated tool for calculating harmonic fibs.  They don't always play out but its handy to have them flagged to at least be alert for moves.


----------



## Kauri

Not 100% confident.. or any where near it.. but I am watching from the sidelines looking for a retrace...   
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Not 100% confident.. or any where near it.. but I am watching from the sidelines looking for a retrace...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Technical: retracement would need a break below support at US$695 to 700.  Remains in the bullish uptrend channel

Fundamental: us dollor trading sideways to weaker, oil going up, large buying from Middle East, investor uncertainty continues.  Iraqi troop withdrawal, in spite of the rhetoric. an indication of failure and will also hit the oil price.

The security of gold bullion is gaining momentum.   I would expect some consolidation to lower till later next week.   A bounce off US$695 would be healthy  IMHO


----------



## Enoch

I found a recent article in Barrons Sept 10th 2007 that outlines an explosion in gold price due to the unwinding of the "Gold Carry Trade".

Think readers of this thread may find it interesting.

It also predicts $800 gold by the end of the year.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB118954417476624138.html


----------



## robandcoll

*The year 2007 is the slowest production of gold since the year 1922.*

Hopefully someone will read it again. Supply/Demand. It is quite simple really or am I missing the plot.

Should I post a chart?


----------



## So_Cynical

robandcoll said:


> *The year 2007 is the slowest production of gold since the year 1922.*
> 
> Hopefully someone will read it again. Supply/Demand. It is quite simple really or am I missing the plot.
> 
> Should I post a chart?




Yes cos im struggling with the term "slowest" perhaps a chart will help.

While your at it, a chart showing production for the last 200 years
so posters mite see the production bubble of the last 60 years.


----------



## explod

The following excerp is well worth a read and you can go to the full article from the link at the bottom.  cheers explod

I am of the opinion that over the weeks and months ahead, the US establishment and various central banks will orchestrate a massive monetary and fiscal bail-out. Remember, we are in the third year of the US Presidential cycle and the people in power will do whatever they can in order to inflate asset-prices heading into the election. In fact, Mr. Bush's recent "aid program" to help low to middle-income homeowners is a good indication of what lies ahead. If my assessment is correct, another bout of widespread inflation (money-supply and credit growth) will come to the "rescue" as the central bankers open the monetary spigots and flood even more liquidity into the ailing monetary-system.

It is worth noting that after the technology bubble burst in March 2000, the Federal Reserve created massive inflation through its ultra-loose monetary policy. And this easily available credit found a home in real-estate all over the world. After being burnt in the stock-market, the investing public decided to direct their speculative juices towards bricks and mortar. As easy money flowed thanks to record-low interest-rates, home prices were bid up in the majority of countries. There was a total disregard for risk as the "real-estate never goes down" mantra replaced the "New Economy" nonsense. This party continued for a while until the "bubble-blowers" decided to remove the punch bowl by raising the cost of borrowing. As the tide of liquidity went out, numerous people were found swimming naked! The "Sub-prime Crisis" had arrived.

Now, given the fact that the masses have lost a lot of money in technology and real-estate, it is highly unlikely that the next bout of central bank sponsored inflation will benefit these sectors of the economy. In other words, the next bubble is not likely to form in these previously "hot" markets. In fact, this time around, I suspect the easy-monetary policy will create a gigantic bubble in precious metals and other natural resources. Already, it seems as though the market senses the next wave of inflation as the US Dollar is declining and gold has broken above US$700 per ounce. In the period ahead, I expect gold to appreciate significantly not only against the US Dollar but also against the other currencies which are being inflated at a ridiculous pace! Take a look at the annual money-supply growth rates around the world -

US
 +12%

Euro zone
 +13%

Britain
 +14%

China
 +20%

Russia
 +51%

India
 +23%

S. Africa
 +22%

Brazil
 +12%


Now, you don't have to be a NASA-scientist to figure out that as the quantity of money increases, each unit of money will continue to lose its value or purchasing power against assets whose supply cannot be increased at the same pace. This confiscation of purchasing power has bullish implications for precious metals.

Today, several highly-intelligent economists and analysts are anxiously waiting for "The Crash" which will wipe out the value of the Dow Jones by 50-60%, cut the value of gold by half, cause an economic depression and create a vicious bear-market in asset prices. In my humble opinion, these people are going to be disappointed because "The Crash" will be stealth and will take place via plummeting currencies rather than an outright collapse in nominal asset-prices. Those who are forecasting a significant decline in US asset prices need to look no further than Zimbabwe where stocks have been making record-highs, albeit in a collapsing currency! So, given a choice between an outright deflationary bust and an inflationary bail-out, I can assure you that every establishment will opt for the latter outcome. In fact, central banks will continue to print money until the world runs out of trees.

The truth is that most people do not understand inflation and feel wealthy as long as their asset-prices continue to rise (never mind the state of the currency). So, the inflation-pill is a lot easier to swallow than an economic depression. And this is exactly what we are going to witness.

The modern-day monetary system is far from ideal, however we all have to live within the system and try our best to protect our wealth from the ravages of inflation. As a money-manager with the capability to invest in global assets, I have invested our clients' capital in the world of tangibles. Recently, we have added to our positions in precious metals on the belief that we could witness an explosive run-up over the coming months. Furthermore, from a sentiment perspective (with the majority of investors fearful and bearish), the current conditions seem ideal for the next advance in the ongoing secular bull-market in precious metals.





Puru Saxena
www.purusaxena.com


----------



## barrett

robandcoll said:


> *The year 2007 is the slowest production of gold since the year 1922.*
> 
> Hopefully someone will read it again. Supply/Demand. It is quite simple really or am I missing the plot.
> 
> Should I post a chart?




Here's a chart I found of newly mined gold production, 1845-2004.  It doesn't incorporate the past couple of years' production, which from memory has roughly plateaued.  I can't really see any evidence of what you're saying.  Also keep in mind that central bank dishoarding and leasing remains a big additional source of gold supply onto the open market , so big that in some past years, according to analyses by gold investor James Turk, it has equalled new supply from mining.  But that's re-assuring - since historically governments have a great track record of selling most of their gold at the bottom of the market


----------



## robandcoll

Ha thanks Barrett.
                         And to think i got my information from Alan Kohler. Im still bullish gold regardless though.


----------



## robandcoll

Ha thanks Barrett.
                         And to think i got my information from Alan Kohler. Im still bullish gold regardless though.


----------



## bean

The following is part of Ted Butlers commentry
I have highlighted what I think is important 



> Once again, the bullish COT set up was accurate in predicting the impressive recent $70 gold rally. Less impressive has been the rally in silver, which appears to being dragged upward by gold. If one were to analyze strictly on short-term price behavior, the price action in silver could not be considered constructive. Then again, short-term price behavior is not the way to properly analyze a market.
> 
> While gold has performed admirably price-wise, *the COTs suggest it may now be time for caution. The gold COTs, for the week ended September 4, deteriorated by more than 25,000 contracts net, due to tech fund buying and dealer selling. More importantly, extrapolation from the cut-off date indicates significant further gold COT deterioration, perhaps by 30 to 40,000 contracts or more. The sharp rally in gold took us from a very bullish COT market structure to a bearish structure. Tops are much more difficult to call than bottoms, and we still may have a ways to go in price, but from a COT perspective, there are caution flags flying in gold.*
> In addition, there has been impressive buying in the GLD gold ETF, to the tune of around 1.5 million ounces. On top of that, the Australian gold miner Newcrest announced it had pre-purchased 2.3 million ounces of gold in the last week, to close out its gold hedge book.
> 
> All told, from just the COMEX, the GLD and Newcrest (allowing for overlap), some 10 million gold ounces or more were purchased recently (paper and metal), with a total value of near $7 billion. That’s a lot of money and a lot of gold. In some ways, considering these amounts, the price rally in gold is somewhat subdued. (I shudder when I think of the potential price impact on silver if a fraction of that money found its way to silver). Of course, this same amount of gold was sold, with most of those sales being of the short-sale variety.




I follow all US markets (i use run analysis some cycles, tech analysis )
I analysed various patterns...with a run analysis on saturday. I thought I spotted something rare!!.  I have since subsribed to a site to see if what I had spotted may have been correct. so I can't mention mention what it was and if it happens or what may happen.  Some things of what I mentioned on my last few posts maybe show an insight of what may happen..False hope?


----------



## barrett

bean said:


> so I can't mention mention what it was and if it happens or what may happen.




That's quite an intriguing statement Bean!  Why can't you comment on what may happen?

I agree with the Ted Butler comment.  It is pretty dangerous to call a top based on the gold COT (eg Dec'05).  Where it has shown itself useful is in calling a bottom, and we didn't see the commercials' commitments get down to the <50,000 level that would support calling Aug16th as the bottom.

Explod, the Saxena article you posted was spot on.  I am very bullish on gold in the medium to long term, except imo the evidence supports waiting rather than buying with both hands at this point.  Re your previous post:



explod said:


> Yep, needs to hold above long term support at US$700 (which actually goes beack to 1980/81) with consilidation, and yes up like a rocket from there. But could be a further shake out yet as alluded to by Bean, but not that low however.
> 
> Fundamentally, US dollar is at an all time low and continuing to weaken. Interesting the press seem to be avoiding this event. Not lost on the gold bugs however.




The round numbers are important in gold technicals but I can't see that the $700 level has acted as any particularly significant technical support or resistance over the years.

The US dollar is at an all time low against the Euro and this had a lot of media coverage late last week.  But the US dollar index is not at an all time low -it remains within the support range of 78.5-80.5 above which it has held repeatedly since 1978.  The dollar has formed a major bottom in this range six times since 1978, at fairly regular intervals (see attached chart).

Surely it will before long, but I have to ask, is now the right time for it to break through this 29-year support level?  We now have an almost total consensus among analysts that the US dollar is going to plummet when the US Fed cuts rates.. and gold bulls are going wild.. despite that the commercial interests are betting heavily the other way, both in the US dollar and in gold.. and the dollar is at 29-year resistance.  I am not convinced that the market is going to reward the consensus of speculators.

Attached is a 5-year chart of the commitment of traders in the US dollar - extreme values of the commercial interests are usually good indicators of a turning point in the market.  The commercials are close to as long as they ever have been for the past 5 years.

The news of a US rate cut is already factored into the market - so any unexpected bullish news for the dollar will provide support.  I expect this as the catalyst for a strong US dollar rally, starting this week.  This is likely to bring the key buying opportunity in gold stocks that the other indicators are saying is still to come.  

I won't be selling my long-term holdings of gold stocks.  But in keeping with past bottoms during this bull market, I'll wait for the XAU:spot ratio to cross below 0.19 again before buying more.

Some potential catalysts to begin a US dollar rally:
- rate cut 0.25 on Tuesday when market expects 50/50 chance of 0.5
- credit worries - Goldman, Lehman, report next week.  Insider buying has been absent from those companies, though heavy in other financials
- news of euro economy weakening or ECB hinting at a rate cut

Also, it looks like insider selling at gold miners is on the rise, with insiders at Barrick, Goldcorp, Iamgold and Murgor Resources having sold shares in the past week, according to Steven Kaplan at truecontrarian.com

cheers
Barrett
chart:upperman.com


----------



## chops_a_must

Looks like gold is going nuts again prior to the US open.

Some of the blue chip goldies are looking technically fantastic, but sentiment is not yet with the small caps. Will be interesting to see what sort of action we get when the speccies start joining in.

FWIW, I'll put 50c on gold getting to between 750-775 on this run before coming back.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The Plunge Protection Team dyke boys will be working overtime putting fingers into the many leaks in the fiscal dyke holding back the US dollar sea. Smash down imminent?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

This chart pattern is becoming a little bit too obvious. 2 steps forward 1 step back!


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> I have since subsribed to a site to see if what I had spotted may have been correct. so I can't mention mention what it was and if it happens or what may happen.  Some things of what I mentioned on my last few posts maybe show an insight of what may happen..False hope?



Insight into what might happen? Is this the part about gold crashing at the end of last week bean? Going back to $540. No you've amended that. To? Or, is this the bit about gold either breaking up, or down, and that we will know when it happens?  You crack me up bean.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Insight into what might happen? Is this the part about gold crashing at the end of last week bean? Going back to $540. No you've amended that. To? Or, is this the bit about gold either breaking up, or down, and that we will know when it happens?  You crack me up bean.




May be it was Beans dip about 4 hours ago at US$714.  Back on its merry way now and is why I stay long cause out of Wall Street they said it was different this time, they have mechanisms in place and everyone saw them on 4 corners last night.


----------



## explod

Quote:
Originally Posted by explod  
Yep, needs to hold above long term support at US$700 (which actually goes beack to 1980/81) with consilidation, and yes up like a rocket from there. But could be a further shake out yet as alluded to by Bean, but not that low however.  [end}

BARRET'S  







> question
> 
> 
> The round numbers are important in gold technicals but I can't see that the $700 level has acted as any particularly significant technical support or resistance over the years.   [end quote]
> 
> 
> About February 80 the US$700 acted  as support then several times in August the same year it became resistance, a head and shoulders to a period of support in November where it then fell away.
> 
> On closer inspection, (I was just looking at a rough round number and in retrospect should not have done that)   I was a bit high.   The area of support is more at $660 and I think others on the forum may have indicated that.
> 
> Should have looked closer and apologies for that.


----------



## bean

I mentioned these closing prices of the 11 th September as being resistance for the Gold Indicies
16.24 155.47 366.98 

Today they are roughly 
16.00  158.35   361.41

Almost one week ago and Gold has been above US700 all that time.
Gold's move up everyone is sure this is it.
I mentioned a 'false hope' 

Currently the Indicies are not confirming POG

"I was looking for something (a pattern) in US markets today did not happen
But spotted something else that did"


----------



## bean

bean said:


> "I was looking for something (a pattern) in US markets today did not happen
> But spotted something else that did"




Volume on September PUTS on S&P


----------



## explod

bean said:


> I mentioned these closing prices of the 11 th September as being resistance for the Gold Indicies
> 16.24 155.47 366.98
> 
> Today they are roughly
> 16.00  158.35   361.41
> 
> Almost one week ago and Gold has been above US700 all that time.
> Gold's move up everyone is sure this is it.
> I mentioned a 'false hope'
> 
> Currently the Indicies are not confirming POG
> 
> "I was looking for something (a pattern) in US markets today did not happen
> But spotted something else that did"





I dont think the indices are having an effect anymore.  The key is the faith being lost in paper currencies particularly the $US.   There is no doubt that huge drops on Wall street will support the dollar as people fly to cash, and yes gold stocks go with it.  (though the way the HUI is looking perhaps not) But the pig picture is that the overall gold trend will remain intact till an alternative to the $US dollar is found. 

Depends on your time frame I suppose Bean, I am not a day trader.


----------



## bean

POG is it factoring .5 % rate cut
what if its only .25%

The figures I mentioned being support levels for gold indieces last week are starting to become resistance.

The US markets on a technical analysis point the advance/decline line (10 Day) on the Nasdaq when it moves down to 0.75 on the first occassion %wise it can have a drop of 2-3% on a number of occasions
To get 0.75 tonight all it needs is 1125 advancing stocks and 1925 declining stocks so a down day could easily be on the cards
A number of other Indicies in the US are in a similar boat for tonight so a down night won't be pretty.

The POG may be caught in the down draft


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> POG is it factoring .5 % rate cut
> what if its only .25%
> 
> The figures I mentioned being support levels for gold indieces last week are starting to become resistance.
> 
> The US markets on a technical analysis point the advance/decline line (10 Day) on the Nasdaq when it moves down to 0.75 on the first occassion %wise it can have a drop of 2-3% on a number of occasions
> To get 0.75 tonight all it needs is 1125 advancing stocks and 1925 declining stocks so a down day could easily be on the cards
> A number of other Indicies in the US are in a similar boat for tonight so a down night won't be pretty.
> 
> The POG may be caught in the down draft




yep there could be a lot on the cards to night in any thing that is connected to the us$

I had some euro/usd trades on but closed them down. want to see what happens tonight.


----------



## explod

Noteworthy of the last few months has been the weakness of silver.   I have nocied that in the last few years silver has usually been the front indicator of the Bullion uplegs.   Tonights action is the first real strength I have seen for some time.   Could be interesting later tonight.


----------



## Enoch

explod said:


> Noteworthy of the last few months has been the weakness of silver.   I have nocied that in the last few years silver has usually been the front indicator of the Bullion uplegs.   Tonights action is the first real strength I have seen for some time.   Could be interesting later tonight.




Hi Explode,

Currently the commitment of traders report shows the commercials are holding a small short position. This tends to occur just before a large move to the upside in silver.

I read an article which outlined it was the smallest position held for the last four years. As the short position held by commercials in Gold has increased this probably means that silver will begin outpacing gold once again.

In addition I tend to agree with you on your views on the gold price long term. I think I posted a link to a report in Barrons on this thread a couple of days ago which forecasts the Gold price above $800 in the next year.

With the central banks of the world injecting liquidity into the markets the way they are and the US Fed almost forced to reduce interest rates due to the mortgage crisis I cannot see how this is bearish for Gold long term.

Coupled with this the turmoil in the middle east, oil prices already over $80, inflation on the increase we could be in for interesting times ahead.

Bean,

You could be correct in the short term but as a long term investor I am not particularly bothered by short term fluctuations.

Time will tell.


----------



## CanOz

Trade_It said:


> yep there could be a lot on the cards to night in any thing that is connected to the us$
> 
> I had some euro/usd trades on but closed them down. want to see what happens tonight.




My YG contracts been open since 712.00, 

Just went long 3 contracts on the YM, with a sell stop for 10 at apex....on simulator of course...

Love this IB simulator!!!


----------



## chops_a_must

Should have been on it Can!

Looks like the non-front month contract is up 1% over $730 since the announcement.

Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.


----------



## explod

chops_a_must said:


> Should have been on it Can!
> 
> Looks like the non-front month contract is up 1% over $730 since the announcement.
> 
> Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.




The Kitco gold price charts have broken down but on my other indicators there is a surge up in both gold and silver in the last thirty minutes.  The drop in the dollar will now reinforce and it will be hang onto your hats for bullion now.


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.



The gold strip as of 3:15 PM NY time.




Dec Futs Chart


----------



## Sean K

if you own gold....



> *U.S. Gold Futures Hit 28-year High After Fed Cut*
> 18 Sep 2007 | 03:10 PM
> 
> U.S. gold futures rose to a 28-year high in screen trade on Tuesday, after the Federal Reserve slashed the benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point in a bid to boost the economy.
> 
> On the Globex electronic platform used by the New York Mercantile Exchange and its COMEX metals division, the December gold contract is up $8.50 or 1.2 percent at $732.30 an ounce. Just minutes earlier, it rallied to a high of $733.40.




I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> if you own gold....
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.




Totally sustainable now, blue skies for gold and the US dollar is doomed to the scap heap.   Our own dollar has gone up 1.5% tonight, that says it all.

Worth tuning in to Jim Cramer on Bloomberg U-tube on the Fed and the dollar


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> if you own gold....
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.




 Indeed.

It's almost been a perfect storm brewing for gold over the past week. But as always happens, the rise in gold will tank the overall market, which will in turn feed on itself. But for now, I'm not complaining!


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> if you own gold....
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.




Probably a few weeks at best.

USD is not doomed IMO. This is the last roll of the dice for $$$ bears. Contrarians should be eyeing this and looking for a higher low to form. Ending Diagonals resolve is either 2 ways:  

- a sharp reversal which could have happened today OR
- or a capitualtion wave 5 or throwover(lower contracting trendline) which is temporary and is eventually fully retraced which did happen today

On occasion it's difficult to tell which of the 2 until the move actually starts

Looks like we got the throwover. I would say this move down will be over by no later then years end(being conservative- will probabaly be sooner)

In the last major stock market move down some weeks ago there was flight to the USD, if the market enters a prolonged bear campaign we could see a similiar but more prolonged trend.

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> Probably a few weeks at best.
> 
> USD is not doomed IMO. This is the last roll of the dice for $$$ bears.




Yes yes, and you've been saying exactly the same thing for the last 6 months.


----------



## Nick Radge

We could always look at facts:

(1) Gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle on high volume. There is a 70% chance of a retest of the breakout which increases if there is significant resistance above. The all-time highs are right here.

(2) After a successful retest of the breakout, there is an 86% chance of Gold then moving to the target level of the triangle.


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Yes yes, and you've been saying exactly the same thing for the last 6 months.




Wrong,

I have been saying downside will be limited for the last 6 months because we are in a creeping trend down.  Six month ago USD Index was trading at 
81.30, now is 79.20, that 2.5% lower than six months ago, hardly  a crash wouldn't you say???


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> Wrong ,
> 
> I have been saying downside will be limited for the last 6 months because we are in a creeping trend down.  Six month ago USD Index was trading at
> 81.30, now is 79.20, that 2.5% lower than six months ago, hardly  a crash wouldn't you say???




Yes, but on your contrarian trade you would still be down 2.5% over 6 months.

Your call for gold to go to $540 before the next run was invalidated, and yet you expect us to go along with your forecasts based on now invalidated analysis? Well, tough titties.


----------



## bean

DOOM AND GLOOM ON THE US$

The US $ index is today at 79  Gold is @ US$ 720
May 2006 US $ index was @ 89   wonder what price Gold was then?


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Yes, but on your contrarian trade you would still be down 2.5% over 6 months.
> 
> Your call for gold to go to $540 before the next run was invalidated, and yet you expect us to go along with your forecasts based on now invalidated analysis? Well, tough titties.




Man,

I could not give a fat rats ass wether you follow my forecasts or not, in fact I won't even bother posting them anymore, better to concentrate making $$ than give clowns like you the time of day.

For your information my forecast on Gold was made in April/May 2006 1 week before the peak. Everyone was bullish at the time. I even draw out a little roadmap with the likely pattern of trend. You know what, it even followed the path in that chart for the first year since the call. The call then was for Gold to go to $540.  It went to $542. Don't beleive me, go back and look for yourself??  I even made 3 CORRECT trades in a row on Gold following this.

For the last 6 months it has not.


Now I lay you the challenge. If you think you can do better, place you analysis on this thread forecasting the move in Gold for the next 6 months, let's even place a nice wager on it, what do you say?? Or will you chicken out of this one too??


----------



## chops_a_must

I don't pretend to know where things are going, and I don't care. I don't rely on forecasts to trade off. I rely on what is.

But if I make a forecast like you did above, ok, I will. The USD will go up in the next few weeks, with that move ending sometime by the end of the year. See, I can't be wrong can I? And a 100% chance of being right does not a 100% chance of making money make.

FWIW I'd have a punt on gold reaching between 750-775 on this run.


And yes Bean, this time around it isn't a USD story. As I said above, it is a perfect storm. Energy, potential inflation and problems in Syria and Iran. There is more than one thing influencing this now.


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> I don't rely on forecasts to trade off. I rely on what is.




It looks like you “Long Walk” is going to last a long time

PS, Don’t compare yourself to Plato or Socrates, you don’t even come close.  Being my ancestors even I have more chance than you.

Ohhh, and don’t bother replying, you won’t get a response


----------



## theasxgorilla

chops_a_must said:


> And yes Bean, this time around it isn't a USD story. As I said above, it is a perfect storm. Energy, potential inflation and problems in Syria and Iran. There is more than one thing influencing this now.




I can't help but wonder if the US powers that be aren't cunning enough to keep that in reserve to help markets find a bottom if need be, like they did with Iraq.


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> PS, Don’t compare yourself to Plato or Socrates, you don’t even come close.  Being my ancestors even I have more chance than you.



I wouldn't dare, but it sure as hell beats the Protagorean like discussion we've had on this page.


----------



## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Should have been on it Can!
> 
> Looks like the non-front month contract is up 1% over $730 since the announcement.
> 
> Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.




I've got a sell order in on my gold contracts now. Having been asleep i missed all the action so i'll have to try and save everything before it retests....same goes for the YM long, too close to 13900 for my liking....

Really starting to like this IB platform for orders....charting still sucks though.

Cheers all.


----------



## explod

theasxgorilla said:


> I can't help but wonder if the US powers that be aren't cunning enough to keep that in reserve to help markets find a bottom if need be, like they did with Iraq.




Commentators I have learned to respect for good insight are saying this morning that the Fed rate cut is financial suicide.   It is the rate cuts of the past few years that have caused the problem in the first place and this will just make it worse.

The decision seems more on political cosmetics to try and hold the Dow up because it is this signal the US voters are effected by psychologically.  The Fed is bowing to pressure to try and bail out the hedge funds and shonky lenders.   The borrowers in housing are shot anyway.  If the "US powers that be are cunning" it is not for the good of the people.

Anyway you can have you charts and waves etc. etc., just glad I stayed long gold because pay day is coming now.


----------



## Edwood

here's an update on the bearish pattern - daily view - getting a bit extended now but still in play (as you can see these things can run on which is why I find them only useful to flag potential moves & to be alert for a possible change of direction).  As always no guarantee this will play out, just highlighting for reference.  Cheers


----------



## CanOz

wavepicker said:


> Probably a few weeks at best.
> 
> USD is not doomed IMO. This is the last roll of the dice for $$$ bears. Contrarians should be eyeing this and looking for a higher low to form. Ending Diagonals resolve is either 2 ways:
> 
> - a sharp reversal which could have happened today OR
> - or a capitualtion wave 5 or throwover(lower contracting trendline) which is temporary and is eventually fully retraced which did happen today
> 
> On occasion it's difficult to tell which of the 2 until the move actually starts
> 
> Looks like we got the throwover. I would say this move down will be over by no later then years end(being conservative- will probabaly be sooner)
> 
> In the last major stock market move down some weeks ago there was flight to the USD, if the market enters a prolonged bear campaign we could see a similiar but more prolonged trend.
> 
> Cheers




FWIW, IMO the DX is in a falling wedge, thats bullish short term and look like a bounce soon...no time for the chart, later tonite maybe...everythings coming together for another drop in the markets, carry trade etc., then another ise in USD, retrace in GOLD....


----------



## explod

Nice chart Edwood but it just looks like a wonderful uptrend to me.   

Best book I ever read for investing which put me on the absolule track in my view and handling of tech analysis (got me away from the fancy gadgets) is "Trend Following, How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets" by Michael Covel, Prentice Hall 2004


----------



## Edwood

explod said:


> Nice chart Edwood but it just looks like a wonderful uptrend to me.
> 
> Best book I ever read for investing which put me on the absolule track in my view and handling of tech analysis (got me away from the fancy gadgets) is "Trend Following, How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets" by Michael Covel, Prentice Hall 2004




fair enough explod, one of these patterns recently netted me 2,600pts in 5 weeks on an NZD-GBP move so I tend to keep an eye on them.  Kiwi was in a wonderful downtrend at the time fwiw.


----------



## Jadefox

wavepicker said:


> Man,
> 
> I could not give a fat rats ass wether you follow my forecasts or not, in fact I won't even bother posting them anymore, better to concentrate making $$ than give clowns like you the time of day.
> 
> For your information my forecast on Gold was made in April/May 2006 1 week before the peak. Everyone was bullish at the time. I even draw out a little roadmap with the likely pattern of trend. You know what, it even followed the path in that chart for the first year since the call. The call then was for Gold to go to $540.  It went to $542. Don't beleive me, go back and look for yourself??  I even made 3 CORRECT trades in a row on Gold following this.
> 
> For the last 6 months it has not.
> 
> 
> Now I lay you the challenge. If you think you can do better, place you analysis on this thread forecasting the move in Gold for the next 6 months, let's even place a nice wager on it, what do you say?? Or will you chicken out of this one too??




Wavepicker,

I for one regard your posts as some of the most informative and educational on this forum. I'd be seriously disappointed if you stopped posting due to one person's response.


----------



## Kauri

Not a very scientific analysis but I would hazard a guess that one more step may see gold ready for a small correction...  ..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## buggalug

Nick Radge said:


> We could always look at facts:
> 
> (1) Gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle on high volume. There is a 70% chance of a retest of the breakout which increases if there is significant resistance above. The all-time highs are right here.
> 
> (2) After a successful retest of the breakout, there is an 86% chance of Gold then moving to the target level of the triangle.




Nick,

Very interesting stats there, is that from your studies?

btw I just finished reading your book, it was excellent, hope you are planning on writing more in the future.


----------



## bean

Last week mentioned I thought POG may make 720-725 range
I have also said gold Indices may break out and be bullish fo a few days.
I said a "False Hope"

Well someone has forgot to tell a lot of the Aussie Gold stocks that gold is over US 700

I am still 100% cash and don't think I have missed anything some shares are trading less than what I sold them for last week.
I will be worried if POG is still about US 700 next week.  I could have missed the boat.

A extraxt from Ted Butlers latest.  I found the bit about the COT'S interesting



> The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) confirmed the continued deterioration in gold, with tech fund and speculative buying versus further dealer short selling. As expected, the latest COT report as of September 11, indicated more than 36,000 futures contracts were added to the commercial net short position, placing it mid-range in my guess of 30 to 40,000 last week. This puts the total commercial net short position at just over 160,000 contracts, up almost 70,000 from the lows four weeks ago.
> 
> Since the Tuesday COT cut-off, as many as 20,000 more gold contracts may have been added to the tech fund long/dealer short position. This places the COT gold market structure in clear bearish territory. That doesn’t mean gold can’t trade higher, or rule out the possibility that the dealers could get over run (oh happy day!), but history strongly suggests that the dealers will rig a sharp sell-off sooner or later. In fact, it is precisely the negative market structure in gold that concerns me most about silver, as there is nothing in the silver market structure itself that suggests high risk.




I am a long term gold bull


----------



## champ2003

bean said:


> Last week mentioned I thought POG may make 720-725 range
> I have also said gold Indices may break out and be bullish fo a few days.
> I said a "False Hope"
> 
> Well someone has forgot to tell a lot of the Aussie Gold stocks that gold is over US 700
> 
> I am still 100% cash and don't think I have missed anything some shares are trading less than what I sold them for last week.
> I will be worried if POG is still about US 700 next week.  I could have missed the boat.
> 
> A extraxt from Ted Butlers latest.  I found the bit about the COT'S interesting
> 
> 
> 
> I am a long term gold bull




The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) confirmed the continued deterioration in gold, with tech fund and speculative buying versus further dealer short selling. As expected, the latest COT report as of September 11, indicated more than 36,000 futures contracts were added to the commercial net short position, placing it mid-range in my guess of 30 to 40,000 last week. This puts the total commercial net short position at just over 160,000 contracts, up almost 70,000 from the lows four weeks ago.

Since the Tuesday COT cut-off, as many as 20,000 more gold contracts may have been added to the tech fund long/dealer short position. This places the COT gold market structure in clear bearish territory. That doesn’t mean gold can’t trade higher, or rule out the possibility that the dealers could get over run (oh happy day!), but history strongly suggests that the dealers will rig a sharp sell-off sooner or later. In fact, it is precisely the negative market structure in gold that concerns me most about silver, as there is nothing in the silver market structure itself that suggests high risk. )


That report sounds interesting however alot has happened since the 11th Sept and do you think that there is a strong possibility that the traders have now gone long in their positions since the hike in interest rates?


----------



## bean

champ2003 said:


> The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) confirmed the continued deterioration in gold, with tech fund and speculative buying versus further dealer short selling. As expected, the latest COT report as of September 11, indicated more than 36,000 futures contracts were added to the commercial net short position, placing it mid-range in my guess of 30 to 40,000 last week. This puts the total commercial net short position at just over 160,000 contracts, up almost 70,000 from the lows four weeks ago.
> 
> Since the Tuesday COT cut-off, as many as 20,000 more gold contracts may have been added to the tech fund long/dealer short position. This places the COT gold market structure in clear bearish territory. That doesn’t mean gold can’t trade higher, or rule out the possibility that the dealers could get over run (oh happy day!), but history strongly suggests that the dealers will rig a sharp sell-off sooner or later. In fact, it is precisely the negative market structure in gold that concerns me most about silver, as there is nothing in the silver market structure itself that suggests high risk. )
> 
> 
> That report sounds interesting however alot has happened since the 11th Sept and do you think that there is a strong possibility that the traders have now gone long in their positions since the hike in interest rates?




No they have probably added some more...However see silver shot up because the structure is still O/K in Silver...but if POG drops/hit silver will follow.
More often than not within a few days of when Butler seems to mention COT'S structures being bearish the POG is hit.

The US markets are probabley oversold...so the rally there may be short lived...and was a short covering rally where the bears were crushed.

With the POG the fundamentals are really bullish...
However
POG was this in May 06...the US gold Indicies still a bit of there highs st back then...But gold stocks here (Aust) and there(US) some are way from there highs set back then.

The US$ beaten down but may be due for a bounce?
US gold stocks are overbought (but can still go higher).

Any move down and it won't just be POG or Gold Indicies.


----------



## Whiskers

bean said:


> Any move down and it won't just be POG or Gold Indicies.




Hi bean

I'm following this thread and your expertise with great interest. Could you eloberate on what you mean in the above statement.


----------



## bean

POG well what could a gold bull want...the fundamentals are right for a rise.  The gold Indices are moving out/up but are still lagging the POG.

Top for POG US 730??? If I said that you would be speechless everything is in place for POG to go no where but up.

But if the COT's bearishness means the POG may be hit then how?
One way would be for the gold shares to be hit...but POG is strong???

So does that mean Commodities and the markets in general will correct and USD bounces from its lows.  Seems like a logical way for it to happen???

Press headlines would be Deflation??
Not Hyper Inflation as the FED is doing with the cut?


----------



## Whiskers

Thanks for that bean.

Good food for thought for a novice to the mechanics of the commodities markets.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Top for POG US 730??? If I said that you would be speechless everything is in place for POG to go no where but up.



POG's only going up now beanster?


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> POG's only going up now beanster?



 I find it quite clear.. I think.... the only thing stopping it going down is its going up..    ...
 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Bush Trader

bean said:


> No they have probably added some more...However see silver shot up because the structure is still O/K in Silver...but if POG drops/hit silver will follow.
> More often than not within a few days of when Butler seems to mention COT'S structures being bearish the POG is hit.
> 
> The US markets are probabley oversold...so the rally there may be short lived...and was a short covering rally where the bears were crushed.
> 
> With the POG the fundamentals are really bullish...
> However
> POG was this in May 06...the US gold Indicies still a bit of there highs st back then...But gold stocks here (Aust) and there(US) some are way from there highs set back then.
> 
> The US$ beaten down but may be due for a bounce?
> US gold stocks are overbought (but can still go higher).
> 
> Any move down and it won't just be POG or Gold Indicies.





This may be of interest, in regards to your hypothesis on silver Mr Bean.

Cheers


BT

Gold and Silver Decoupling?
FN Arena News - September 19 2007

With one expert after the other tripping over each other to sing to the virtues of owning gold bullion, the future continues to look cloudy for gold’s little brother silver. Technical chartists at Barclays Capital are yet to be convinced that the recent upwardly movement for silver is nothing more than a correction in a long term southwards trend.
The chartists believe that silver’s 17% surge since the mid-August lows has done nothing so far to break the larger bearish trend. Charts show strong technical resistance lies between US$13-13.15/oz and until that barrier has been broken silver’s fortune look less bright than gold’s.

Gold bullion raced through trendline resistance at US$720/oz rather easily this week and the chartists note daily momentum oscillators are increasingly overstretched; it’s just that price action simply refuses to fall in line with such signals.
Barclays chartists report they are closely watching the US$730.50 highs of May 2006. They believe that at first this price point may open the door to a larger correction, which could take gold back towards technical support at US$703-700/oz. However, a break through US$730.50 opens approximately US$10 of topside for a run towards channel resistance at US$740/oz, the team reports.

A sustained break above US$695/oz, as we are likely witnessing right now, puts the next target for gold at US$730/oz, according to the Barclays team. Next target is at US$800/oz.


----------



## Nick Radge

buggalug said:


> btw I just finished reading your book, it was excellent, hope you are planning on writing more in the future.




buggalug,
The stats I use are either mine from experience or those collected over the years. 

I have no educational books coming out. I really don't think I have anything to offer that hasn't already been done. I do have a very different book coming out in late 2008 which is something that has never been seen in Australia before, but its not educational per se.

Nick


----------



## Sean K

1042 [Dow Jones] Spot gold slightly higher on N.Y. close, on course to take out 26-year high at $730/oz, then on course for $750, says Westpac's Robert Rennie. Market digesting aggressive, unanimous cut of discount and federal funds rate, Fed statement. "The signal from the Fed was for a cut of 25 basis points, so there's now suspicion there's something large behind this (50 basis point) move," says Rennie. Predicts more fallout from subprime mortgages to work through financial markets, USD to trend weaker, setting gold up for run higher. Spot gold trades at $722.50, up $1.80 vs N.Y. close. (EFB)


----------



## CanOz

kennas said:


> 1042 [Dow Jones] Spot gold slightly higher on N.Y. close, on course to take out 26-year high at $730/oz, then on course for $750, says Westpac's Robert Rennie. Market digesting aggressive, unanimous cut of discount and federal funds rate, Fed statement. "The signal from the Fed was for a cut of 25 basis points, so there's now suspicion there's something large behind this (50 basis point) move," says Rennie. Predicts more fallout from subprime mortgages to work through financial markets, USD to trend weaker, setting gold up for run higher. Spot gold trades at $722.50, up $1.80 vs N.Y. close. (EFB)




If its hit the news then it must be time for a retrace.

Cheers,


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> If its hit the news then it must be time for a retrace.
> 
> Cheers,




Nah, when the taxi driver tells you, get out fast.

Any semblances to fact may be pure coincidence.  I am wrong most of the time, particularly when at home.


----------



## Whiskers

Gold had a look in $730 territory, but popped out again. I guess the test will come shortly when NY opens.

Could be another good day for resource stocks tomorrow. Hope so anyway. There's a hanging man over LGL  and I didn't sell. 



> UPDATE 4-Gold hits 28-year high as dollar sinks, oil strong
> Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:43 AM BST
> Email This Article | Print This Article | RSS [-] Text [+] (recasts, adds quotes, changes prices, byline; pvs SINGAPORE)
> 
> By Atul Prakash
> 
> LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Spot gold surged to a 28-year high in European trade on Thursday, as the dollar sank to record lows against the euro and oil traded near all-time highs.
> 
> Gold <XAU=> rose as high as $730.25 an ounce, the highest since January 1980, when the metal jumped to a record high of $850. It was quoted at $728.10/728.90 by 0916 GMT, against $721.10/721.90 in New York late on Wednesday.
> 
> "The market was in two minds yesterday, jumping between $722 and $726, but the euro's push through $1.40 against the dollar gave the market fresh impetus to break up again," said Tom Kendall, metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corporation in London.
> 
> "The metal is likely to see some consolidation now until the U.S. markets open. We could see further gains then, but the higher we go, the more nerves will be jangling," he said.
> 
> The dollar sank to record lows against the euro, weighed down by a hefty U.S. interest rate cut earlier this week and expectations of more moves to come.
> 
> A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for other currency holders and often lifts bullion demand. The metal is also generally seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation.
> Oil hovered just below a record high level after U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected and as the threat of a storm gathering near Florida reignited supply concerns in the world's top consumer.
> 
> A European precious metals trader said weaker dollar, higher oil prices and still existing subprime fears attracted a lot of investors towards the gold market.
> 
> "I think we will see a highly volatile market, but the tendency is to move on the upside," he said.
> 
> Other precious metals also gained, with platinum <XPT=> rising to $1,311/1,315 an ounce from $1,301.70/1,308.70 in New York, silver <XAG=> gaining to $13.11/13.16 an ounce from $12.95/13.00 and palladium <XPD=> increasing to $333/337 from $330.25/334.25 an ounce.
> 
> © Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved


----------



## Whiskers

Interesting article from mineweb.com. $1,000 within three years,  maybe $3,400 

Hey... where are all you gold buffs tonight? Just when I am looking for some insight for tomorrow.



> $3400 Gold – pipe dream or possibility?
> A prediction of $3400 dollar gold within three years should not be discarded as impossible, although hopefully unlikely.
> 
> Author: Lawrence Williams
> Posted:  Wednesday , 19 Sep 2007
> 
> LONDON -
> 
> A short article in today's Times newspaper in the UK recounts that Christopher Wood, chief strategist at big Hong Kong broker CLSA (whose largest shareholder is France's Credit Agricole, the world's 7th largest bank by asset value) feels that "market ructions and a collapse of the dollar could send gold prices to $3,400 an ounce or more in the next three years."
> 
> Is this just a euphoric statement by someone carried away as the gold price strengthens above the $700 mark, or worthy of serious consideration?
> 
> Somewhat frighteningly, perhaps the ‘serious consideration' scenario definitely wins out here. $3,400 an ounce is a little less than five times the current gold price level - and price gains of this magnitude have been seen in the base metals and uranium sector over the past three to four years.
> 
> Admittedly gold is a different animal from the industrial metals where prices have risen on unprecedented demand from countries like China, which had not been predicted and caught the mining sector short. But, Wood argues, as reported in The Times, the scenario could be that investors will soon realise that the subprime crisis is just a currently-visible part of a much wider financial breakdown. This would lead to dollar collapse, in part as a result of the financial marketplace burying its head in the sand and pretending that "bad credit is good credit."
> 
> Whether the Central Banks will sit back and let this happen is actually unlikely, but the argument is that if enough momentum is gathered the Central Banks will be unable to stop it.
> 
> This pattern does depend on a substantial dollar decline, which in turn would lead to a rapid rise in US inflation, almost certainly to be countered by increased interest rates, and subsequent recession. This is one of the reasons that all but the out and out gold bugs pray that this does not happen - but it isn't impossible. Ask any Zimbawean! Inflation there is running at around 7,000 percent a year and in Zimbawean dollar terms the gold price is hugely in advance of $3400!
> 
> Personally I hope, and believe, that the gold price won't rise to this extent within the next three years as other stores of value would depreciate in value dramatically. However I certainly wouldn't rule out $1,000 gold in that period. Plenty of far more experienced observers than myself would agree with this - not least Pierre Lassonde, former President of Newmont.


----------



## So_Cynical

Gold Price - Where is it heading?...734.48 USD and climbing.

How good is this....i got something right for once.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Gold Price - Where is it heading?...734.48 USD and climbing.
> 
> How good is this....i got something right for once.





Yep, not rocket science but the rocket seems to work ok


----------



## clowboy

I tell you what sux though,  the GOLD price is going gangbusters but so id the AUD$ so at best my gold holdings are breaking even.

How can I buy AUD with AUD???????


----------



## wayneL

clowboy said:


> I tell you what sux though,  the GOLD price is going gangbusters but so id the AUD$ so at best my gold holdings are breaking even.
> 
> How can I buy AUD with AUD???????



This is the advantage of using leverage... even if you don't use the leverage.

Supposing Gold is $700 oz and AUD 0.80 and you have $87,500 AUD

You could buy 100oz of physical Gold.... or, you could by 1 x 100 oz Gold future and be completely unleveraged.

You margin would be $3,375 USD which is ~$4220 AUD. This is what you would need to lodge with your broker.

So your position is:
1 x 100 oz Gold Future @ $700
$3375 USD lodged with broker
$83280 AUD in cash

Let's suppose both AUD and Gold went up 10%. i.e. Gold to $770 and AUD to 88c.

If you bought 100oz of physical gold, you would be squits, no profit.

However, if you bought the future, your position would be.

1 x Gold future @ $770
$10,375 USD with the broker ($7,000 USD profit + initial margin)
$83280 AUD in cash

Now if you wind up the trade and convert your profit back to AUD:
$10,375 @ 88c = $11,790
add that to your cash and you have $95,069 AUD.

Slightly less than 10% profit, but a hell of a lot better than zip.

That is ex commission (an iniquitous $6 - $40 round trip depending on the broker) but bear in mind, commish on physical is 5 or 10% for the round trip.

Same principle with buying AUD/USD with AUD... leverage 

EVEN IF YOU DON'T USE IT.

Cheers

Disclaimer: Opinion only, you can lose a substantial amount of money with futures. It is not like stocks where you can only lose 100%, with futures they can come for your house, your wife, your left testicle, your liver, wine cellar and your first-born boy child. Futures can give you diabetes, AIDS, and warts on your nose. Please seek the advise of a commissioned salesma... errr, financial adviser before using any financial product.


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> Disclaimer: Opinion only, you can lose a substantial amount of money with futures. It is not like stocks where you can only lose 100%, with futures they can come for your house, your wife, your left testicle, your liver, wine cellar and your first-born boy child. Futures can give you diabetes, AIDS, and warts on your nose. Please seek the advise of a commissioned salesma... errr, financial adviser before using any financial product.



LOL   You make a great case for futures Wayne!


----------



## Edwood

he he I like it Wayne 

probably no surprises but that bearish harmonic pattern is no longer in play after the o/night rise


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> Interesting article from mineweb.com. $1,000 within three years,  maybe $3,400
> 
> Hey... where are all you gold buffs tonight? Just when I am looking for some insight for tomorrow.



I do still remember April last year when gold went balistic, and everyone was shouting for $1000++ in the comes days. Well, 18 months later and we're back where we were. I'd like to see the break through $690 confirmed first. Only passed through a couple of days ago. Am I being too conservative?


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> I do still remember April last year when gold went balistic, and everyone was shouting for $1000++ in the comes days. Well, 18 months later and we're back where we were. I'd like to see the break through $690 confirmed first. Only passed through a couple of days ago. Am I being too conservative?



Perhaps... although it does look really bullish.

The thing that is lacking this time, in my eyes is, the euphoria in the small cap and spec end of the equity market. Once that appears, it's probably time to begin getting out.

My punt is for it to get above 750 on this run. I might not sell at this level, but I sure as hell wont open new positions. And I don't want to put words in Nick's mouth, but from his stats and method, it looks like it could get to between 820-890 (roughly, not sure what his exact measurements are).

USD tanking, inflation being factored into bonds, oil up, the saudi's talking of getting out of USD... still no reason to halt right now. Will just be interesting to see what happens if we get another big run on the goldy small caps...


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> inflation being factored into bonds



This is a very pertinent point, long bonds are taking a hit, essentially the market doing (on the long end of the curve anyway) what ####ing Uncle Ben should be doing and raising rates. I don't know whether that is bullish for gold in the medium term or not, but it shows the FOMC pulled the wrong rein this week.

You'd certainly be nuts not to already have some long exposure to POG here.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> I do still remember April last year when gold went balistic, and everyone was shouting for $1000++ in the comes days. Well, 18 months later and we're back where we were. I'd like to see the break through $690 confirmed first. Only passed through a couple of days ago. Am I being too conservative?




It's called a 'wall of worry', when everyone is expecting it (POG) to do it's usual thing and get smashed down. The difference this time could be the lengthy consolidation period preceding this breakout, & that's what it is, and everything else lining up ie the perfect bullish case for gold, thanks largely to Ben Bullwinkle Bernanke eg 'hey Rocky watch me pull a recession out of my hat'.

I'm with chops with the concern about the lack of action in the junior end of the gold market, except I would view any break out here as a good confirmation that phase 2 of the gold bull has well & truly started.

Who knows, the golden horse might have already bolted and everybody will have to scramble to get a piece of the action?


----------



## Ageo

clowboy said:


> I tell you what sux though,  the GOLD price is going gangbusters but so id the AUD$ so at best my gold holdings are breaking even.




this is very true, atm buying pysical gold is actually cheaper since our dollar is going so strong. So its countering any increase in the price of gold....


----------



## clowboy

wayneL said:


> This is the advantage of using leverage... even if you don't use the leverage.
> 
> Supposing Gold is $700 oz and AUD 0.80 and you have $87,500 AUD
> 
> You could buy 100oz of physical Gold.... or, you could by 1 x 100 oz Gold future and be completely unleveraged.
> 
> You margin would be $3,375 USD which is ~$4220 AUD. This is what you would need to lodge with your broker.
> 
> So your position is:
> 1 x 100 oz Gold Future @ $700
> $3375 USD lodged with broker
> $83280 AUD in cash
> 
> Let's suppose both AUD and Gold went up 10%. i.e. Gold to $770 and AUD to 88c.
> 
> If you bought 100oz of physical gold, you would be squits, no profit.
> 
> However, if you bought the future, your position would be.
> 
> 1 x Gold future @ $770
> $10,375 USD with the broker ($7,000 USD profit + initial margin)
> $83280 AUD in cash
> 
> Now if you wind up the trade and convert your profit back to AUD:
> $10,375 @ 88c = $11,790
> add that to your cash and you have $95,069 AUD.
> 
> Slightly less than 10% profit, but a hell of a lot better than zip.
> 
> That is ex commission (an iniquitous $6 - $40 round trip depending on the broker) but bear in mind, commish on physical is 5 or 10% for the round trip.
> 
> Same principle with buying AUD/USD with AUD... leverage
> 
> EVEN IF YOU DON'T USE IT.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Disclaimer: Opinion only, you can lose a substantial amount of money with futures. It is not like stocks where you can only lose 100%, with futures they can come for your house, your wife, your left testicle, your liver, wine cellar and your first-born boy child. Futures can give you diabetes, AIDS, and warts on your nose. Please seek the advise of a commissioned salesma... errr, financial adviser before using any financial product.




Thanx for the example wayneL  I am aware of what you are saying in regards to buying AUD/USD and everytime I look at the AUD I kick myself.  I was playing around with a fex FX demo accounts rather sucessfully but when I went to open one all the disclaimers etc put me off.  Unfortunately I don't trust my internet connection etc etc enough that I can risk not being able to close out a position if I have to.  At least with shares I can physically ring the broker if I need to.

What is the set up with futures?  can you ring the broker if you need to?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

clowboy said:


> Thanx for the example wayneL  I am aware of what you are saying in regards to buying AUD/USD and everytime I look at the AUD I kick myself.  I was playing around with a fex FX demo accounts rather sucessfully but when I went to open one all the disclaimers etc put me off.  Unfortunately I don't trust my internet connection etc etc enough that I can risk not being able to close out a position if I have to.  At least with shares I can physically ring the broker if I need to.
> 
> What is the set up with futures?  can you ring the broker if you need to?




If u trade FX though a CFD provider like IG, you can call them 24 hpours a day during the trading week to close your FX trade. I am sure with the other fx and futures brokers u can do the same. I could call my futures broker Xpress trade 24 hours a day during the trading week to close open a trade or just for a chat! chats weren't very long mind u!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Gold Bugs,

I am not trying to rain on your parade, below is a chart of the US$ index weekly.

I think it's starting to paint a more and more bullish picture. I agree with Wavepickers comments. It's in a creeping trend and its also in my opinion starting to form a downward diagonal which is normally bullish. the chart is in a weekly time frame and if the pattern proves bullish it may take 1-3 years for it to really get going. But the evidence is there.

Good trading


----------



## Sean K

Trade_It said:


> Gold Bugs,
> 
> I am not trying to rain on your parade, below is a chart of the US$ index weekly.
> 
> I think it's starting to paint a more and more bullish picture. I agree with Wavepickers comments. It's in a creeping trend and its also in my opinion starting to form a downward diagonal which is normally bullish. the chart is in a weekly time frame and if the pattern proves bullish it may take 1-3 years for it to really get going. But the evidence is there.
> 
> Good trading



Looks to have broken down through 80 to me. I'm not sure if that's a bullish sign. I do agree it's softening, but I'm not sure about 'bullish'. 

If the lower portion is a descending triangle and has been broken to the downside, then won't the target be the height of the triangle which is.....ouch. 

Can you provide a shorter term chart with the 80 support level clearly shown? If it is there??

Cheers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

kennas said:


> Looks to have broken down through 80 to me. I'm not sure if that's a bullish sign. I do agree it's softening, but I'm not sure about 'bullish'.
> 
> If the lower portion is a descending triangle and has been broken to the downside, then won't the target be the height of the triangle which is.....ouch.
> 
> Can you provide a shorter term chart with the 80 support level clearly shown? If it is there??
> 
> Cheers.





Kennas,

that's a different pattern to a descending triangle it's a EW pattern ending diagonal please see my attached oil chart for a reference cheers.

please note its not a defenate bull sign buts its building and i am more bullish then bearish on the US$ at this point but that may change we need a break out to confirm it. cheers

please note the abcde count i did is very crapy and wrong its the pattern we need to focus on not my crappy count!


----------



## Sean K

Trade_It said:


> Kennas,
> 
> that's a different pattern to a descending triangle it's a EW pattern ending diagonal please see my attached oil chart for a reference cheers.
> 
> please note its not a defenate bull sign buts its building and i am more bullish then bearish on the US$ at this point but that may change we need a break out to confirm it. cheers
> 
> please note the abcde count i did is very crapy and wrong its the pattern we need to focus on not my crappy count!



I can see an a-b in the gold chart but what are the rules for the distance down to the c? Could we see an abcde? Labels on the gold chart would be great! cheers.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trade_It said:


> Gold Bugs,
> 
> I am not trying to rain on your parade, below is a chart of the US$ index weekly.
> 
> I think it's starting to paint a more and more bullish picture. I agree with Wavepickers comments. It's in a creeping trend and its also in my opinion starting to form a downward diagonal which is normally bullish. the chart is in a weekly time frame and if the pattern proves bullish it may take 1-3 years for it to really get going. But the evidence is there.
> 
> Good trading




Hi Ti,
I think the relevance of the study of the DX in relation to gold is only significant in that there has been a high inverse correlation with gold up till now, so it is customary to assume that any reversal of the trend will automatically be a negative for gold.

There is nothing to say that the relationship between gold and any other thing for that matter will and should continue as we have become accustomed to, and might in fact be starting to break some of these connections due to the obvious reasons.

What should also be factored in is that the Euro features prominatly in the index so it is really a measure of relativities.

While technically there are probably valid assumptions, it will probably come down to who has the least worst currency, as events in Britain have shown some of the contagion has now spread to the Eurozone countries.
If you view gold as a currency then it will probably appreciate in proportion to the perceived risk of holding the relevent currency.

So yes the index might have technical reverses in trend, but not sure if it will automatically mean a reversal in golds fortunes? In fact it may already be irrelevent as far as gold is concerned? I can't see any fundamental reasons why the USD should suddenly start a secular bull trend.
UF


----------



## >Apocalypto<

kennas said:


> I can see an a-b in the gold chart but what are the rules for the distance down to the c? Could we see an abcde? Labels on the gold chart would be great! cheers.




Kennas,

the pattern has not completed yet it's still forming i am no EW expert but i am now spending a lot of my time studding the EW patterns and Mclarens definition of trend.

I do have a mentor and buddy that is exceptional in EW, he is guieding me in my devalopment. So I can say with conviction that there is a possible diagonal in the works. but it needs futher time to define and complete.

I am not saying the US$ is about to shoot into the heavens all i am doing is showing evidence that I can see. looking at a weekly chart is better then a daily you can see the whole life of the trend in its all. I feel the bear market in the US$ is in its last phase. But I may be totally wrong. time will tell.

good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hi Ti,
> I think the relevance of the study of the DX in relation to gold is only significant in that there has been a high inverse correlation with gold up till now, so it is customary to assume that any reversal of the trend will automatically be a negative for gold.
> 
> There is nothing to say that the relationship between gold and any other thing for that matter will and should continue as we have become accustomed to, and might in fact be starting to break some of these connections due to the obvious reasons.
> 
> What should also be factored in is that the Euro features prominatly in the index so it is really a measure of relativities.
> 
> While technically there are probably valid assumptions, it will probably come down to who has the least worst currency, as events in Britain have shown some of the contagion has now spread to the Eurozone countries.
> If you view gold as a currency then it will probably appreciate in proportion to the perceived risk of holding the relevent currency.
> 
> So yes the index might have technical reverses in trend, but not sure if it will automatically mean a reversal in golds fortunes? In fact it may already be irrelevent as far as gold is concerned? I can't see any fundamental reasons why the USD should suddenly start a secular bull trend.
> UF




Some very interesting Points there UF, very interesting.


----------



## wavepicker

Does one wonder if this is all the same market the last 4 years?

-Trend in Gold: Up
-Trend in Silver: Up
-Trend in Foreign Currencies traded against USD: UP
-Trend in Commodities is: Up
-Trend in World Stock Markets has been UP

If we get another important top in the stock market starting next month  and it tanks, what will the rest of these markets do?? Will they follow suit and get thumped as they did in the last correction??


Something to think about before getting too carried away…….


----------



## bean

It would appear someone forgot to tell the Aussie Gold Stocks Gold is US$ 735
Volume in a lot of Gold stocks not much to speak off.

The COT's must be getting to an interesting stage. 
The US markets DOW S&P Nasdaq getting near there July highs.

We have the US$ at lows....I wonder if that is causing any ripples in any Countries....Is that putting there economies under any pressure.

I am still in cash. not missing anything at the moment


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> Something to think about before getting too carried away…….






bean said:


> I am still in cash. not missing anything at the moment




Carpe diem?

Ride the next bubble - whatever it is.


----------



## barrett

wayneL said:


> This is the advantage of using leverage... even if you don't use the leverage.
> 
> Supposing Gold is $700 oz and AUD 0.80 and you have $87,500 AUD
> 
> You could buy 100oz of physical Gold.... or, you could by 1 x 100 oz Gold future and be completely unleveraged.
> 
> You margin would be $3,375 USD which is ~$4220 AUD. This is what you would need to lodge with your broker.
> 
> So your position is:
> 1 x 100 oz Gold Future @ $700
> $3375 USD lodged with broker
> $83280 AUD in cash
> 
> Let's suppose both AUD and Gold went up 10%. i.e. Gold to $770 and AUD to 88c.
> 
> If you bought 100oz of physical gold, you would be squits, no profit.
> 
> However, if you bought the future, your position would be.
> 
> 1 x Gold future @ $770
> $10,375 USD with the broker ($7,000 USD profit + initial margin)
> $83280 AUD in cash
> 
> Now if you wind up the trade and convert your profit back to AUD:
> $10,375 @ 88c = $11,790
> add that to your cash and you have $95,069 AUD.
> 
> Slightly less than 10% profit, but a hell of a lot better than zip.
> 
> That is ex commission (an iniquitous $6 - $40 round trip depending on the broker) but bear in mind, commish on physical is 5 or 10% for the round trip.
> 
> Same principle with buying AUD/USD with AUD... leverage






Great example, Wayne. A semantic point - in this example the profit on the futures contract doesn't come from the leverage itself but from buying a contract for purchase rather than buying the underlying asset. When buying a contract, only your profits are exposed to currency risk.  Leverage (eg via a margin loan) could have used to buy the underlying asset (bullion) - in which case the currency risk would have also resulted in zero profit.  So a derivative (future or option) provides an inbuilt currency hedge.

Also with futures, for anything more than a quick trade the contango usually becomes an issue. To profit from gold over a year you can buy futures contracts dated 12 months out, but the contango is typically about 10%+ over spot. So you might not be technically 'borrowing' the money to buy the futures contract but you're still paying for it - via the carrying costs. And the contango can shrink or expand very quickly and independently of the gold price. It just complicates things a little in practice when weighing up futures vs bullion decision. IMO the 26:1 leverage, and the inbuilt currency hedge make it worthwhile having some futures exposure as long as the leverage is kept under control!


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> Great example, Wayne. A semantic point - in this example the profit on the futures contract doesn't come from the leverage itself but from buying a contract for purchase rather than buying the underlying asset. When buying a contract, only your profits are exposed to currency risk.  Leverage (eg via a margin loan) could have used to buy the underlying asset (bullion) - in which case the currency risk would have also resulted in zero profit.  So a derivative (future or option) provides an inbuilt currency hedge.
> 
> Also with futures, for anything more than a quick trade the contango usually becomes an issue. To profit from gold over a year you can buy futures contracts dated 12 months out, but the contango is typically about 10%+ over spot. So you might not be technically 'borrowing' the money to buy the futures contract but you're still paying for it - via the carrying costs. And the contango can shrink or expand very quickly and independently of the gold price. It just complicates things a little in practice when weighing up futures vs bullion decision. IMO the 26:1 leverage, and the inbuilt currency hedge make it worthwhile having some futures exposure as long as the leverage is kept under control!



Yes good points barrett,

I neglect the contango/coc factor because I trade short term. As a balancing point, the cash will be kept in an interest paying account, which will offset the contango to some degree, and a purchase of physical will remove the ability of cash to earn interest,.. and you have to pay to store. So even physical will have cost of carry.

But thanks for highlighting it, something that definitely must be considered.


----------



## wayneL

clowboy said:


> Thanx for the example wayneL  I am aware of what you are saying in regards to buying AUD/USD and everytime I look at the AUD I kick myself.  I was playing around with a fex FX demo accounts rather sucessfully but when I went to open one all the disclaimers etc put me off.  Unfortunately I don't trust my internet connection etc etc enough that I can risk not being able to close out a position if I have to.  At least with shares I can physically ring the broker if I need to.
> 
> What is the set up with futures?  can you ring the broker if you need to?



Yes you can ring them to close out a position. The amount of actual service you get in this regard depend son the broker and of course the level of commish.

With IB, I believe you can phone but only to close out a position at market. Other brokers offer more options here but the commission will be higher, each one is different.... and many brokers have different service levels and commissions.

Here in Oz, Brokerone you will be able to use the phone with, but a few extra bucks over IB.

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> Carpe diem?
> 
> Ride the next bubble - whatever it is.




SAY AGAIN???


----------



## barrett

I use Man Financial (now called MF Global) futures broker, they're in Sydney, you can phone them 24hrs/day, brokerage is $15/contract.  Online account/data feed is extra, a monthly fee of around $50.

My dream trade is to buy $1 million worth of Comex Gold contracts dated 12 months out  - anyone with a futures account can do this by putting up $40K margin.  If gold doubled in the following year, which it could well do - it would be $1 million profit from one trade

If a sensible entry point for gold presents itself in coming months I plan to set up this trade with at least $500K total, using a ladder of $150K buy orders.


----------



## barrett

bean said:


> It would appear someone forgot to tell the Aussie Gold Stocks Gold is US$ 735
> Volume in a lot of Gold stocks not much to speak off.




Most of the Aussie gold stocks' cash costs are paid in $A and so it's the gold price in $A that affects their profit rather than the $US gold price.  

Given that the $A gold price is about the same as it was two weeks ago (see attached) it's not surprising most of the Australian gold stocks aren't going beserk like the US and Canadian gold stocks.  

There certainly is a lot of euphoria in the gold sector at the moment.  Some of the Canadian juniors in my dad's account are going up 10% a day, one went up 17% in a day on no news.  The majors are going up consistently about 5%/day in US dollar terms.

Our portfolios will continue to be about 60% gold stocks and a war chest of cash waiting for a correction.  But the HUI 'gold bugs' index, the XAU and the Nasdaq  have now formed potential double tops, at the same time as the US dollar is right on its 15-year low of 78.19.  Media and investor sentiment on the US dollar eg "The Death of the Dollar" forum reminds me of December 2005, when the Economist ran the attached cover story "The Disappearing Dollar".  At the time it was barely possible to think of a single reason why the US dollar would rise.  It marked the beginning of a 10-month, 13% rally in the US dollar index.  

Maybe this time the US dollar will break below 15-year support, but I am not going to bet my remaining cash on gold stocks when they are wildly overstretched technically and at major resistance, and schoolteacher friends of mine are asking with interest about gold!

The Marc Faber quote comes to mind, "when teachers and hookers are buying, sell!"  (no offence to sex workers - or teachers.  They're just very absorbed in their jobs).  Maybe that quote applies to all assets at the moment, except the US dollar.

chart:galmarley.com real-time gold price tracker


----------



## barrett

chart:


----------



## Whiskers

I have read a suggestion that the US might sell more gold reserves to help support the $, by dampening the rise in gold price and therefore it's attraction v the $. I've also seen an article suggesting that the EU might also sell more gold reserves, because a collapsed $ would damage the EU as well.

I read some time ago that the US was behind schedule in some international agreement for reserve banks to sell down their gold reserves. I have two questions. 

What is this so called agreement and who is it between? 

Given these reserve banks have apparently been selling down gold reserves, how much more do they have to sell, and won't they have to buy back some time, and risk undoing things?


----------



## wavepicker

barrett said:


> Most of the Aussie gold stocks' cash costs are paid in $A and so it's the gold price in $A that affects their profit rather than the $US gold price.
> 
> Given that the $A gold price is about the same as it was two weeks ago (see attached) it's not surprising most of the Australian gold stocks aren't going beserk like the US and Canadian gold stocks.
> 
> There certainly is a lot of euphoria in the gold sector at the moment.  Some of the Canadian juniors in my dad's account are going up 10% a day, one went up 17% in a day on no news.  The majors are going up consistently about 5%/day in US dollar terms.
> 
> Our portfolios will continue to be about 60% gold stocks and a war chest of cash waiting for a correction.  But the HUI 'gold bugs' index, the XAU and the Nasdaq  have now formed potential double tops, at the same time as the US dollar is right on its 15-year low of 78.19.  Media and investor sentiment on the US dollar eg "The Death of the Dollar" forum reminds me of December 2005, when the Economist ran the attached cover story "The Disappearing Dollar".  At the time it was barely possible to think of a single reason why the US dollar would rise.  It marked the beginning of a 10-month, 13% rally in the US dollar index.
> 
> Maybe this time the US dollar will break below 15-year support, but I am not going to bet my remaining cash on gold stocks when they are wildly overstretched technically and at major resistance, and schoolteacher friends of mine are asking with interest about gold!
> 
> The Marc Faber quote comes to mind, "when teachers and hookers are buying, sell!"  (no offence to sex workers - or teachers.  They're just very absorbed in their jobs).  Maybe that quote applies to all assets at the moment, except the US dollar.
> 
> chart:galmarley.com real-time gold price tracker




Great post Barrett, I was thinking much the same in Dec 2004, except pessimism ATM is even greater than then!!

Not that I am hyper bullish the USD, never have been as believe it's in a secular bear, but that does not mean it's going to fall of the face of a cliff ATM. Markets can undergo multi year rallies even in very long bear campaigns, and it would not surprise in the months/years ahead if this actually starts to trace out something completely different than what most expect.

Cheers


----------



## bean

Latest COT and the MAY 2006 COT  
Interesting to say the least

DEJAVU 

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1190404200.php

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1147463220.php


----------



## explod

bean said:


> Latest COT and the MAY 2006 COT
> Interesting to say the least
> 
> DEJAVU
> 
> http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1190404200.php
> 
> http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1147463220.php




Good one Bean.   The article by David Vaughn "How High Will Gold Climb" is excellent and should be read by anyone thinking of cashing in their gold positions


----------



## CanOz

Monthly GOLD with Guppy MMAs.....Something different.


----------



## numbercruncher

> Madrid has been a major cap on prices this year, flooding the market with 150 tonnes. The bank has now cut its total holdings by 46pc, leaving the country with wafer-thin foreign reserves.
> 
> Experts suspect that Asian central banks may have become buyers. China has less than 2pc of its vast $1,340bn reserves in gold, and has signalled an intent to diversify away from dollars.
> 
> President Vladimir Putin has instructed Russia's central bank to raise the gold share of its huge reserves from around 5pc to 10pc.





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/22/cngold122.xml


----------



## CanOz

The obvious relevance, the USD index at 20 year lows.... Very interesting times to say the least.


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:


> The obvious relevance, the USD index at 20 year lows.... Very interesting times to say the least.



Breaking 80 support. Is that a dodgy H&S? Wave 3 down?


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> Breaking 80 support. Is that a dodgy H&S? Wave 3 down?




Possibly,

But I would say a higher probability is that this is a wave B (unorthodox new  low) of an expanded flat correction, there are other possibilities ofcourse

Cheers


----------



## explod

Referring to your chart Canaussieck

The high volume around mid 2005 indicates a lot of dollars changing hands, following which interest wanes by both volume and value falling away.  

A seperate important point, (from Bill Buckler, Privateer neswsletter)"... the US dollar is now at the point of an all time low..."   Commentators tend to talk 10 year low, and there is in my view a big difference.

The price of gold is of course considerably below true value on an inflation adjusted basis.

The interest in the US dollar with the interest rate cut should accellerate this week and with decreasing alternatives to park money the interest in gold will intensify accordingly.     

Will be intersting to see what pans out.


----------



## CanOz

WP - i certainly hope its a flat bottom on the USD Index....and Kennas, i saw that H&S too, stands out like 'dogs ......' but i did a quick visual on the target zone and thought 

Explod, In my view, i'm expecting a pullback in GOLD of some kind before it pushes on (so i can jump on), this may also see the rally in the USD before another move lower, who knows really???

I tend to think there will be a few who think the USD is good buying at this point. What do the economists say about US exports increasing on these values?

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:


> and Kennas, i saw that H&S too, stands out like 'dogs ......' but i did a quick visual on the target zone and thought



Yep, target about 58 cents.


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> I tend to think there will be a few who think the USD is good buying at this point. What do the economists say about US exports increasing on these values?
> 
> Cheers,



Apparently 75% of the time the fed cuts, the USD increases in value. This of course is probably more applicable to times when CB's around the world are cutting rates en masse, when growth is also slow or negative. So, I think a lot depends on what other CB's do, especially the Europeans. With everyone but the US seemingly doing well or OK, perhaps this time is going to be amongst that 25% ?


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> WP - i certainly hope its a flat bottom on the USD Index....and Kennas, i saw that H&S too, stands out like 'dogs ......' but i did a quick visual on the target zone and thought
> 
> Explod, In my view, i'm expecting a pullback in GOLD of some kind before it pushes on (so i can jump on), this may also see the rally in the USD before another move lower, who knows really???
> 
> I tend to think there will be a few who think the USD is good buying at this point. What do the economists say about US exports increasing on these values?
> 
> Cheers,




Yes the pullback is expected but the dynamics are shifting now with institutional investors coming in so dont' count on it.    

It is worth checking the comments of David Vaughn via the link posted by Bean yesterday.   I have followed this bloke going back and he is a thoughtful commentator


----------



## bean

The current COT structure is very bearish and almost the same as May 2006
 And look what happened to POG 

Is this time different?? 
USD a rally...what would make it rally??
Moving from stocks to cash as the market moves down???
And we have my scenario the gold stocks will fall with the market?

At the moment I see no other way for the USD to rally.

Kennas hope your looking at the low price for POG


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Kennas hope your looking at the low price for POG



I'm only looking at 690 support to hold before maxing out the margin loan and selling a liver or two to top up my gold holdings. Or, if all time highs hold I might buy a few more of something. Probably more NEM and NCM. I'm heavy LGL and it's run pretty hard. pe must be in the 100s now....If 690 support fails, I'll take some profits and re-evaluate. 


you are = you're


----------



## wavepicker

CanOz said:


> WP - i certainly hope its a flat bottom on the USD Index....and Kennas, i saw that H&S too, stands out like 'dogs ......' but i did a quick visual on the target zone and thought
> 
> Explod, In my view, i'm expecting a pullback in GOLD of some kind before it pushes on (so i can jump on), this may also see the rally in the USD before another move lower, who knows really???
> 
> I tend to think there will be a few who think the USD is good buying at this point. What do the economists say about US exports increasing on these values?
> 
> Cheers,




The trouble with classical TA patterns is that they can be very subjective, just like EW. But at least with EW you have a bit more to work with(as in rules and guidelines thus making the conclusions a little more objective but not necessarily correct)

When I started to trade FX I used to look for H&S patterns etc, very rarely did they ever happen the way I expected it to.

Canaussieuck, those are very impressive charts, what package is it that you are using??  Do you(or does anybody) have access to any raw data(preferably monthly) for the USD Index?? I am looking to do some further analysis on this Index but cannot do it without the raw data.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

wavepicker said:


> Canaussieuck, those are very impressive charts, what package is it that you are using??  Do you(or does anybody) have access to any raw data(preferably monthly) for the USD Index??
> 
> Cheers




Thanks WP, its Amibroker and Premium Data, i suppose its in raw form in the PD directory, wouldn't it be?

Cheers,


----------



## BlueDaze

*Deflation*

*Bernanke Has Snookered Us All*
by Gary North

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north568.html

Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have done something extraordinary. They have publicly lowered the FedFunds target rate, and have forced down the actual FedFunds rate to meet the target rate, while deflating the money supply.

You read it here first: "deflating."

The only monetary indicator that reveals directly what the FOMC has done in recent weeks is the adjusted monetary base. This is the one monetary aggregate that the FOMC controls directly. It reveals what actions the FOMC has taken.

The adjusted monetary base serves as the monetary base of the fractional reserve commercial banking system. Take a look at what happened from the middle of August, when the FOMC lowered the discount window's interest rate from 6.25% to 5.75%, until mid-September.




From early July, 2007, to mid-August, it climbed rapidly. From mid-August to mid-September, it fell just as sharply.

This is deflation.

The monetary base declined. This requires an explanation. I have one. The Federal Reserve was simultaneously selling T-bills from its own account. It sold enough to more than offset its purchases of repo's from commercial banks.

The buyers need not have been American commercial banks. They could have been foreign central banks, individual investors, and funds looking for safety/liquidity. The point is, the sale by the FED extinguished the money that came in from outside the FED.

This solved the immediate problem: supplying reserves to banks. If the FOMC bought repo's of assets other than Treasury debt, this provided liquidity for assets that would not have been worth as much as the FED loaned had they been sold into the free market.

Meanwhile, the sale of FED assets such a T-bills enabled the FED not to increase the rate of money growth. It made the repo purchases non-inflationary.

Can this continue? Yes. Will it continue? For a while, maybe. Bernanke seems determined to avoid price inflation. There is only one way to achieve this goal: reduce the rate of monetary inflation. But a policy of monetary deflation or even slow growth does not solve the problem of the business cycle. The U.S. economy will slide relentlessly into recession.

The FED is caught between the rock and the hard place. I believe it will inflate. But this recent decline in the AMB indicates that the FED is determined to hold off for as long as politically possible.

*WILL THE FED RE-INFLATE?*

Eventually, yes. It has always inflated since about 1938. That is what it does. That is why it exists.

The crucial question today is this: Can the FED avoid a recession without re-inflating seriously? I think the answer is no.

Next: Will it re-inflate fast enough to avoid a recession? Again, I think the answer is no.

Next: Will it re-inflate, once the economy slides into recession? I think the answer is yes.

In other words, between today and the next wave of monetary inflation, we are likely to go through a recession.


----------



## kerosam

i remembered before the sub prime situation, the resources' values were going up like there's no tomorrow. then global markets had the correction. but it was not until very recent we see the increase of POG. Not sure what's the reason. Maybe,

1. people are buying gold to shelter their wealth in a  possible global recession OR
2. POG playing catch up OR
3. something i didn't think of?


----------



## CanOz

kerosam said:


> i remembered before the sub prime situation, the resources' values were going up like there's no tomorrow. then global markets had the correction. but it was not until very recent we see the increase of POG. Not sure what's the reason. Maybe,
> 
> 1. people are buying gold to shelter their wealth in a  possible global recession OR
> 2. POG playing catch up OR
> 3. something i didn't think of?




Unwinding of the gold carry trade?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> I'm only looking at 690 support to hold before maxing out the margin loan and selling a liver or two to top up my gold holdings. Or, if all time highs hold I might buy a few more of something. Probably more NEM and NCM. I'm heavy LGL and it's run pretty hard. pe must be in the 100s now....If 690 support fails, I'll take some profits and re-evaluate.
> 
> 
> you are = you're





Surviving the PPT on a US Monday trading US$730 an oz., is looking like consolidation and a new level of support.   A lot of sales supporting the price  now and a hold at this level for a couple of more days will give the breakout continued legs.


----------



## cuttlefish

*Re: Deflation*



BlueDaze said:


> *Bernanke Has Snookered Us All*
> by Gary North
> 
> http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north568.html
> 
> ...
> 
> This is deflation.
> 
> The monetary base declined. This requires an explanation. I have one. The Federal Reserve was simultaneously selling T-bills from its own account. It sold enough to more than offset its purchases of repo's from commercial banks.
> 
> The buyers need not have been American commercial banks. They could have been foreign central banks, individual investors, and funds looking for safety/liquidity. The point is, the sale by the FED extinguished the money that came in from outside the FED.
> 
> This solved the immediate problem: supplying reserves to banks. If the FOMC bought repo's of assets other than Treasury debt, this provided liquidity for assets that would not have been worth as much as the FED loaned had they been sold into the free market.
> 
> Meanwhile, the sale of FED assets such a T-bills enabled the FED not to increase the rate of money growth. It made the repo purchases non-inflationary.




I won't claim to even remotely understand this stuff and how the international bond/treasury/debt/banking systems work.  

But doesn't this whole exercise mean the fed is effectively taking on bad debt (lending money to banks that have been impacted by sub-prime at low rates via the discount window at 30 day terms rather than the overnight terms from previously, using poor quality assets as backing) whilst at the same time effectively passing on that bad debt to others by the writing of t-bills (supposedly good debt, but how good now?).   And isn't it exactly this behaviour (and the willingness to do this rather than let the original owners of the bad debt face up to the consequences) the reason that confidence in the $US is likely to be impacted? 

Also foreign buyers of those t-bills are betting on a $US rise are they not? If the $US falls won't they also begin to sell their t-bills and then sell the $US that they get from the sale of the t-bills, accelarating the USD decline?


----------



## bean

bean said:


> The current COT structure is very bearish and almost the same as May 2006
> And look what happened to POG
> 
> Is this time different??




Latest
The COT structure in GOLD is near extreme levels.
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1190745461.php

Is this time different???

BEWARE

"And it won't just be POG And Gold stocks dropping."

I am still 100% in cash.  The gold stocks I sold almost two weeks ago are at similar prices to what I sold them for.
Thanks to the strong AUD


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Latest
> The COT structure in GOLD is near extreme levels.
> http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1190745461.php
> 
> Is this time different???
> 
> BEWARE
> 
> "And it won't just be POG And Gold stocks dropping."
> 
> I am still 100% in cash.  The gold stocks I sold almost two weeks ago are at similar prices to what I sold them for.
> Thanks to the strong AUD



While you've been 100% cash, you've missed some opportunities beanster. Perhaps you should consider some short term trading instead of hiding in a bear cave with all those $$ under the mattress?? Or, be shorting some things....Each to there own I suppose. All the best, kennas


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> BEWARE
> 
> "And it won't just be POG And Gold stocks dropping."



Bean, what's this quote in relation to?

POG looks to be consolidating, as would be hoped, above support. Rising $90 in a few days was not sustainable. USD will not head vertically down and should recover some as has been mentioned also effecting POG. 

How are your indexes looking bean? 

HUI and XAU look very similar as you'd probably expect. MACD's are falling over a bit with the consolidation in POG. Personally I'd be hoping for XAU to settle around the green circle before making another push up. Perhaps that will require POG consolidating between $690-$730. Breaking down through those and we start all over again maybe. 

Interesting for you is that the general market is up, and POG and the gold indexes are down. Has it decoupled?


----------



## bean

All US Gold Indices have had 4 days down.

Oil is coming into effect as its cost is hurting Gold producers.
Is its rising cost is it hurting any other metal producers?

Has POG and Gold stocks de coupled from the market?
At times it seems like it but I do not think so just yet.

COT readings in GOLD are extreme and US markets (DOW etc) just below previous highs. 
In elliott wave ABC correction are they completing wave B
With wave C to come.

As I said stock I sold almost 2 weeks ago MMN .28  yesterday .26
CTO .42 yesterday .42  
TAM .135 about the same yesterday
Though a couple of others did rise, however I am in no risk position at the moment and if Goldies and POG do take a reasonable hit they could easily drop 10% plus overnight.


----------



## explod

Kennas,  I have found the HUI a particularly accurate indicator for trading gold stocks.    The players are very nervous as many got in at the peak of May 2006 and have only now been able to cash thier chips back in.   

The market also strongly expects a gold correction which has been typical of the gold bull so far.   Overnight the gold price swung wildly but overall is holding between 725 to 730 $US oz.

Indications are that the market for physical itself is now very strong and from the Bullion Desk it was reported over the weekend that Central Bank sales for august alone was some 450 tonnes.  That is enormous when one considers that the annual CB agreement is 500 tonnes.

So the rise of the gold price in the last month was a very strong one indeed.  It is my belief that we have a very differrent gold market now but it will take awhile for confidence to be reflected in the indecies.

The dips in quality gold stocks an opportunity.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> In elliott wave ABC correction are they completing wave B
> With wave C to come.



Bean, I think the HUI and XAU may be starting a W2 of a larger move. Although trying to fit nice conforming wave patterns into the past 18 months seems very difficult so I'm not sure why the HUI/XAU should start conforming now. Perhaps I'm just EW blind.  :dunno:


----------



## robandcoll

Limited supply of Gold  in particular from South Africa, whose production has fallen to an 85-year low, while demand has increased. To me it is quite basic demand has out stripped supply.


----------



## Mofra

robandcoll said:


> Limited supply of Gold  in particular from South Africa, whose production has fallen to an 85-year low, while demand has increased. To me it is quite basic demand has out stripped supply.



To look at the other side of the equation, due to Benake's willingness to cut rates to sooth the equities & housing markets in the US, gold demand will increase; rate cuts pressuring the USD. USD & Gold have an inverse relationship that shows little sign of breaking in the MT/LT.


----------



## So_Cynical

robandcoll said:


> Limited supply of Gold  in particular from South Africa, whose production has fallen to an 85-year low, while demand has increased. To me it is quite basic demand has out stripped supply.



Most members here just cant see this as some vision and real world 
thinking is required..

Theres prospectors out there spruking finds of less than 1 gram per tonne Sth Africa has been #1 since the 70s and now its at 
a 85 year low...all the easy golds gone.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Most members here just cant see this as some vision and real world
> thinking is required..
> 
> Theres prospectors out there spruking finds of less than 1 gram per tonne Sth Africa has been #1 since the 70s and now its at
> a 85 year low...all the easy golds gone.




Absolutely, however "you may lead a donkey to water but you cannot make it drink."

The following excerpt from Chuck Butler's just released newsletter adds more to the tone:-

"
Ok... I've got to look further! I know! How about Gold? How about this piece of data... I asked Chris Gaffney to update our Currencies and Metals returns to date since the start of the weak dollar trend that began in Feb. 2002. How does a +154% return since Feb 2002 sound? Well... That's what Gold has done! WOW! Isn't that amazing? You've gotta love it, eh? 

For more on Gold... I always turn to my friend, The Mogambo Guru... There's nothing like reading the Mogambo to get one's blood going on a Monday morning... I will go to him on a Tremendous Thursday... This is a snippet of the Mogambo's letter from Monday 9/24. 

"When the Congress leads the Federal Reserve to create more and more money so that Congress can borrow and then spend more and more money to 'fix' more and more problems of more and more people…", he would have been correct if he had finished the phrase by saying, "Then The Mogambo is right! We are freaking doomed!"

And so while even little kids know the terrible price we will pay for our stupidity and greed, there is a salvation! Adrian Ash at bullionvault.com writes, "the last time America's credit rating came into crisis - during the late '70s - inflation ate both equity and fixed-income investors alive", but "Gold, on the other hand, rose by 510% for dollar-based buyers."

Gold! Just like I have been yelling about! See? I'm not as stupid as you thought!"  [unquote]


----------



## Sean K

Having a woody.


----------



## So_Cynical

I just looked to ...mite break 750 tonite.:

Sif the gold run is over.


----------



## Enoch

This is a link to a presentation by James Turk which outlines why the long term fundamentals are so good for precious metals.

Its worth a look. 

http://thesilversummit.com/webcastturk.aspx

Regards
Enoch


----------



## Uncle Festivus

bean said:


> At the moment I see no other way for the USD to rally.





How about intervention by Euro CB to stem the appreciation of their currency. It might be temporary but could see some profit taking this week in gold. Just another chance to top up?



> _What about the link between a declining dollar and rising gold?_
> I wouldn't overweight that too much, either, because while the dollar is in a little bit of trouble here and it probably will lose some shelf space as a global reserve currency, at the end of the day, the Europeans don't want the euro/dollar rate to be at 1.50 because they will be out of business. All economies are interdependent on the dollar as an instrument of credit for cross-border trade.
> 
> http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119101973818043179.html?mod=rss_barrons_this_week_magazine


----------



## bean

The COT for May 2006
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1147463220.php

The current COT  - very extreme
Is this a record??
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1191008035.php

Definitely a week for fireworks in Gold


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> The COT for May 2006
> http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1147463220.php
> 
> The current COT  - very extreme
> Is this a record??
> http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1191008035.php
> 
> Definitely a week for fireworks in Gold



So, are you calling the long awaited plunge to $540 this week bean?  I suppose I should let you revise your downward target, but I'm not sure where you've got it now. Have you a revised number, and what is it based on? EW? 

I would anticipate a correction shortly, and the steaper and faster this run goes then the more dramatic it will be, which I am getting prepared for. More psychologically than anything else. However, I'd imagine a bump at $730 and $710 to $690 support.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> So, are you calling the long awaited plunge to $540 this week bean?  I suppose I should let you revise your downward target, but I'm not sure where you've got it now. Have you a revised number, and what is it based on? EW?
> 
> I would anticipate a correction shortly, and the steaper and faster this run goes then the more dramatic it will be, which I am getting prepared for. More psychologically than anything else. However, I'd imagine a bump at $730 and $710 to $690 support.




Would be interested in your rationale.

I am inclined to say gold will go the other way.   Strong move late Friday when PPT usually cap price and HUI recovered.  US dollar weakness increasing.  Sabre rattling out of Washington on a strike against Iran also very bullish for gold.

The Dow is looking tired and a correction down here can drag on gold, however some decoupling has been evident of late since institutional investors have begun to change tack.

Should be an interesting week.   We will soon see what pans out.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Would be interested in your rationale.



Just general principles, not time based. I 100% agree with geo/eco/polical events shaping POG atm, but as I said, nothing should go verticle, without a VERY steep retrace. I will be very happy to see consolidation around these levels with natural support at levels stated and then push on momentarily. If not, then yes, more gains, but then even steeper retrace causing significant loss of confindence and longer recovery time...


----------



## clowboy

wayneL said:


> This is the advantage of using leverage... even if you don't use the leverage.
> 
> Supposing Gold is $700 oz and AUD 0.80 and you have $87,500 AUD
> 
> You could buy 100oz of physical Gold.... or, you could by 1 x 100 oz Gold future and be completely unleveraged.
> 
> You margin would be $3,375 USD which is ~$4220 AUD. This is what you would need to lodge with your broker.
> 
> So your position is:
> 1 x 100 oz Gold Future @ $700
> $3375 USD lodged with broker
> $83280 AUD in cash
> 
> Let's suppose both AUD and Gold went up 10%. i.e. Gold to $770 and AUD to 88c.
> 
> If you bought 100oz of physical gold, you would be squits, no profit.
> 
> However, if you bought the future, your position would be.
> 
> 1 x Gold future @ $770
> $10,375 USD with the broker ($7,000 USD profit + initial margin)
> $83280 AUD in cash
> 
> Now if you wind up the trade and convert your profit back to AUD:
> $10,375 @ 88c = $11,790
> add that to your cash and you have $95,069 AUD.
> 
> Slightly less than 10% profit, but a hell of a lot better than zip.
> 
> That is ex commission (an iniquitous $6 - $40 round trip depending on the broker) but bear in mind, commish on physical is 5 or 10% for the round trip.
> 
> Same principle with buying AUD/USD with AUD... leverage
> 
> EVEN IF YOU DON'T USE IT.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Disclaimer: Opinion only, you can lose a substantial amount of money with futures. It is not like stocks where you can only lose 100%, with futures they can come for your house, your wife, your left testicle, your liver, wine cellar and your first-born boy child. Futures can give you diabetes, AIDS, and warts on your nose. Please seek the advise of a commissioned salesma... errr, financial adviser before using any financial product.




WayneL, I know this is going back in time a bit, but....

Looking back over this example using futures it is a bit complex for me at this point in time and I dont think I should get involved in something I dont fully understand yet.  Also I believe that futures are not that flexible in terms of posistion sizes (IE i looked into gold futures with some Aussie mob but u had to buy contracts at pre determined lot sizes).

Anyway.....

If I had 10k worth of physical gold and was bullish on the gold bearish on USD (or bullish AUD) then it would imply I wouldn't make any money on my gold holdings (as previous discussed).  If I opened a position in FX going long AUD for 1 contract (mini account) that would give me a 10k long posn on the AUD movement.  Am I right in thinking that if gold and AUD continue to climb I would make profit on the gold price movement (as the conversion back to AUD from USD would be hedged).  If gold went up and the AUD (or gold down and AUD up) went down I'd be back to break even and if both went down I lose out?

Also it would not cost me anything to do this as I would get paid to hold the AUD/USD position due to interest rate differences.  The only cost would be setting it up (commsion on the trade).

Does this make sense?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Just general principles, not time based. I 100% agree with geo/eco/polical events shaping POG atm, but as I said, nothing should go verticle, without a VERY steep retrace. I will be very happy to see consolidation around these levels with natural support at levels stated and then push on momentarily. If not, then yes, more gains, but then even steeper retrace causing significant loss of confindence and longer recovery time...




The weakness in the US currency has never been at such a low and weak position.  When this filters through to a realisation that the present fundamentals indicate that this situation is only going to get worse then gold will rise exponentially.  We are near that point.

Back in late 1979 gold went from US$300 an ounce to a peak for a day of $900 an ounce.   It settled at an average of $600 for the next twelve months.

Now with the currency situation worse than it was back then we can expect a gold spike the next time to take our breath away.

You may remember a few months ago I posted that the last gold bull multiple, which rose from US $35 oz to $900, was about 25 to one.  This bull started at about $270.   So currently, in my analysis gold is very, very undervalued at the moment.  Bigger players are now going long gold, so any pull back will be small and short lived.

It is interesting, but we tend to believe fiction before fact and there is an old saying that "the truth is stranger than fiction" 

In my very humble opinion


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> The weakness in the US currency has never been at such a low and weak position.  When this filters through to a realisation that the present fundamentals indicate that this situation is only going to get worse then gold will rise exponentially.  We are near that point.
> 
> Back in late 1979 gold went from US$300 an ounce to a peak for a day of $900 an ounce.   It settled at an average of $600 for the next twelve months.
> 
> Now with the currency situation worse than it was back then we can expect a gold spike the next time to take our breath away.
> 
> You may remember a few months ago I posted that the last gold bull multiple, which rose from US $35 oz to $900, was about 25 to one.  This bull started at about $270.   So currently, in my analysis gold is very, very undervalued at the moment.  Bigger players are now going long gold, so any pull back will be small and short lived.
> 
> It is interesting, but we tend to believe fiction before fact and there is an old saying that "the truth is stranger than fiction"
> 
> In my very humble opinion




The thing that worries me is that gold hasn't broken out against most of the other currencies. It's risen purely on the dollar weakness. So unless you have the ability to access physical gold, trades on gold atm look almost like a red herring. However, if you have the power like a lot of instos obviously do, long term arbitrage gold to currency plays probably look quite attractive now.

Having said this, there looks to be a great box play forming on the ticker, GOLD. With a target just under $98. However, until the gold price breaks out against the AUD, the results of the local miners are probably going to disappoint...

GOLD box play chart:


----------



## explod

chops_a_must said:


> The thing that worries me is that gold hasn't broken out against most of the other currencies. It's risen purely on the dollar weakness. So unless you have the ability to access physical gold, trades on gold atm look almost like a red herring. However, if you have the power like a lot of instos obviously do, long term arbitrage gold to currency plays probably look quite attractive now.
> 
> Having said this, there looks to be a great box play forming on the ticker, GOLD. With a target just under $98. However, until the gold price breaks out against the AUD, the results of the local miners are probably going to disappoint...
> 
> GOLD box play chart:




At the NY close gold is up US$3.50 and the dollar itself is up also.  What I have been trying to relate is that the gold price on an inflation rated basis is  many time undervalued and that currency differentials will have little effect when gold goes up 10 or more times its current value.  If you take the time to look analytically at the charts and values of gold over the last 80 years the picture becomes clearer.  Uncle Festivus et al have many times explained the facts throughout this thread and if you are serious about investing in gold you need to do your own calculations before proceeding.

Following from Kitko this morning:-

 By Atul Prakash

LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Gold hit a 28-year high on Monday as a weaker dollar made the metal more attractive to investors, while platinum aimed at an all-time peak on speculative buying.

But the metals fell in the afternoon trading session on profit-taking and as the dollar rebounded from record lows against the euro ahead of a fresh batch of U.S. data this week. 


Spot gold rallied to $746.50 an ounce, its highest level since January 1980, before easing to $742.70/743.40 by 1357 GMT, against $742.40/743.20 late in New York on Friday. The metal has hit new highs four times in less than two weeks.

"Gold is feeling a bit heavy at the moment. I think we are likely to see a correction from here unless something else comes into the market to trigger another leg lower in the dollar," said Tom Kendall, metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corporation.

"But overall, gold is still pretty bullish and I don't think we are likely to come back below $700 in the near term. The more headlines about gold appear in the mainstream media, the more overall sentiment keeps on going up," he said.

A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for other currency holders and often lifts bullion demand.   Continued...


----------



## explod

It seems that we may have established reasonable support at US$730.   The problems with the US economic outlook, in spite of the rising Dow continue to look grim so we can expect the gold price to continue strengthening in the coming weeks.

It is interesting to note that this US$730 area was a point of considerable resistance back in 1980.


----------



## explod

explod said:


> It seems that we may have established reasonable support at US$730.   The problems with the US economic outlook, in spite of the rising Dow continue to look grim so we can expect the gold price to continue strengthening in the coming weeks.
> 
> It is interesting to note that this US$730 area was a point of considerable resistance back in 1980.




................................................................................................................................................................................................................


----------



## explod

By Roger Wiegand      
Oct 3 2007 11:02AM

www.tradertracks.com



“Technical analysis absorbs and reflects all technical and fundamental market moving action to the daily close. Fundamentally, precious metals are long term bullish. Never take your attention away from the bigger picture.”-Traderrog

“Gold is revisiting similar trading action from 1979-1981. Price never gives us a smooth line, straight shot to the moon. Corrections are normal and we expect a mild one from October 8, 2007 through October 19th. Technical projections tell us a return to $700 seems the worst case but we forecast something higher. Yesterday’s gold close was $729.20 after the dollar found some support. Look for a small wave higher this week followed by more corrective selling. This interim period ought to demonstrate sideways, choppy action before the next rally. With a general stock selling haircut coming later this month, precious metals shares could weaken with the others-temporarily. After a price adjustment, gold and silver ought to rally strongly into the fall.”- Traderrog 



Thirty years of monthly gold action tells us a price stall at $700 was predictable resistance.There are other price points trying to suppress gold but these are only a blip on the longer term trading screen. Do not be fazed or knocked out of the bigger picture. We like to trade the technicals but fully expect to be trading PM’s long for a minimum of four years and more likely several years longer. Traders will pause at major price points in the $700’s and $800’s but some of our sharper analyst friends are now forecasting $900 or more this fall.

Old Highs on Gold & Silver Index Attract Current Price Like Magnets



This is an excellent longer term chart explaining several things and forecasting others. The big, red triangle in the price box is of the continuation and breakout variety showing us the clear, breakout XAU rally in late 2005. The dotted red line at the top is longer term major price resistance. We broke that line in 2006 and again this year showing larger buying pressures as they build for a rally. Notice too, the lows in 2006 and 2007 are moving higher, which is also bullish.  The PMO or, price momentum box signaled selling with a crossover moving average right at year-end in 2006. 

Note that now, it is curling up to cross-over again into the bull posture and rally.  One of the best gold and gold-silver shares indicators is the shares XAU price relative to gold in the lower box. Look at the beautiful signal it provided in early 2005 just as price rocketed on this chart. For now, in 2007, we see the same signal saying here comes another of those big shares’ rallies. Currently, the dark line crossed over and broke above the exponential moving average of 20 days. This tells us on the longer term historical chart that buying is just ahead. 

December, 2007 Monthly Silver with Slow Stochastics



Monthly silver has doubled since a bottom in 2004. Silver prices can be confusing to some traders as they reflect heavy commercial applications as well as being a precious metal and a currency. This tug-of-war among the three applications coupled with lower volumes compared to other futures contracts produces extreme volatility. Note the last three price bars: (1) a long bar opening near $13.00 and falling to $11.00 support. But, then it jumped right back up with a close above $12.00; (2) the second bar opened above $12.00 and then zoomed to $13.00; (3) the last and most recent bar opened near $14.00, sold lower and bounced back to close undecided in the middle. All of these signals are bullish, showing higher price pressures. 

In the lower box, the slow stochastics indicates a definitive bottom, and a cross-over to the buying posture. Since silver often follows gold and copper prices like a little puppy, and all of these signals and indicators are saying stay with precious metals. 

Do not let the forthcoming market disruptions and confusion take your eyes off the precious metals football. Those staying in the game for the longer pull with some occasional profit-taking trading can become major winners.-Traderrog

Roger Wiegand


----------



## explod

We have established support at US$720 to 730 and with consolidation at this level we can look to new highs.   However Dow looking toppy with volume down at second lowest level for the year.

A number of posters are concerned at the effect of our strong dollar.  Many of our mid gold stock prices were not only very oversold but were valued by analysts at a much lower gold price.  Analysts tend not to factor on where things are going but on where things have been up to 12 months ago.  Of course their jobs and reputation is on the line whereas we are unqualified and probably do not know what we are talking about.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Of course their jobs and reputation is on the line whereas we are unqualified and probably do not know what we are talking about.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> Peter Hambro Mining has found an ingenious way to beat the credit crunch, raising $150m (£73.5m) with a rare form of bond that allows investors to lock in a 7pc interest rate while also taking a bet on gold.
> If the price of gold rises above $1,000 an ounce, the owners of the bonds can accept payment of the equivalent value in cash once two years have elapsed. This would give them a 37pc capital appreciation above today's price of $741 (£363).
> If gold goes higher, they make more. Should the price fail to reach $1,000, investors redeem the bond at par, plus interest yield.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/06/cnhambro106.xml


----------



## bean

The COT 's are still extreme.
Have the US gold Indicies made a double top last week
Have they completed wave B with wave C to start

HUI from a high 394.32 on 10 May 06
wave A to 287 on the 11 October 06
Wave B 401 on the 1st Oct 07
Wave C  2?? on the ??????

Bullish above US$ 750 bearish if it does not take it out this week?

Also DOW in MAY 06 was about 11500   today 14000
POG US$ 737?  today US$ 737
POG has not been bullish at all has it.
US$ index was in the 80's


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> The COT 's are still extreme.
> Have the US gold Indicies made a double top last week
> Have they completed wave B with wave C to start
> 
> HUI from a high 394.32 on 10 May 06
> wave A to 287 on the 11 October 06
> Wave B 401 on the 1st Oct 07
> Wave C  2?? on the ??????
> 
> Bullish above US$ 750 bearish if it does not take it out this week?



Bean,

Can you please clarrify your ABC there. 

I'm an EW quamby, but I guess that a B can not be higher than the starting point, or maybe it's 'close enough'..... 

Your call of HUI going to 2....something.....!?? on ??!! date, is what exactly? The crystal ball a bit foggy??

All I see on this chart is some consolidation after a breakout through $375 ish, which looks to have been validated. Twice. 

Your EW is saying that this is now going to $200 and something...way under all that support?


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> Bean,
> 
> Can you please clarrify your ABC there.
> 
> I'm an EW quamby, but I guess that a B can not be higher than the starting point, or maybe it's 'close enough'.....





Kennas,

A wave B CAN be higher than the starting point. It's called an irrregular or expanded flat correction. The clues are as followes:

-Wave A: subdivides into 3 waves
-Wave B: subdivides into 3 waves
-Wave C: is an impulse(5 wave structure) which often carries BEYOND the extreme reached by wave A


In this case what BEAN I believe is saying is that wave B is an Unorthodox top. This move up is not impulsive and has the hallmarkes of a double zigzag correction in other words it might be a suckers rally. The last consolidation on the daily chart before it blew off was a contracting triangle, these often precede the last move. Bean might be right here, but each to their own.

The USD generally rallies between Dec to Feb on a seasonal bsis. Whatever Gold is gonna do it's running out of time on this leg up IMO.

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> The COT 's are still extreme.
> Have the US gold Indicies made a double top last week
> Have they completed wave B with wave C to start
> 
> HUI from a high 394.32 on 10 May 06
> wave A to 287 on the 11 October 06
> Wave B 401 on the 1st Oct 07
> Wave C  2?? on the ??????
> 
> Bullish above US$ 750 bearish if it does not take it out this week?
> 
> Also DOW in MAY 06 was about 11500   today 14000
> POG US$ 737?  today US$ 737
> POG has not been bullish at all has it.
> US$ index was in the 80's




Hi Bean,

I also see some weakness in Gold.

Last night I went short on it,

My reasons this break out has made a normal trend up to it's current position. 

formed its frist minor band at 630 normal, but the break out that followed was sold back down to 630 in two sessions, found support around 630 again normal. rallied again to 640's straight away it found weakness forming a creeping band with a lower high that was my entry. POG has weakened again , now if that area of support fails to hold again i will add to my trade. On the bullish side that support may hold again suggesting as long as it can hold above it it's a trading range with a break above 645 to 650 confirming a creeping trend to fast trend up a bullish sign. I am sitting short on it until that is proven.

Good trading.


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> Hi Bean,
> 
> I also see some weakness in Gold.
> 
> Last night I went short on it,
> 
> My reasons this break out has made a normal trend up to it's current position.
> 
> formed its frist minor band at 630 normal, but the break out that followed was sold back down to 630 in two sessions, found support around 630 again normal. rallied again to 640's straight away it found weakness forming a creeping band with a lower high that was my entry. POG has weakened again , now if that area of support fails to hold again i will add to my trade. On the bullish side that support may hold again suggesting as long as it can hold above it it's a trading range with a break above 645 to 650 confirming a creeping trend to fast trend up a bullish sign. I am sitting short on it until that is proven.
> 
> Good trading.




You are not sure which way it is going so you go short.  Unless I am reading something wrong, if I was not sure I would stay out.  Gold has been in a confirmed uptrend since 2001 so why the concern all the time of a collapse.  My reading of the last week or so would suggest that the $730 level is now fairly good support which has been tested and held the last two trading days.

Fridays, traders have had it for the week and Mondays they are rubbing thier eyes.  They are poor days on which to judge the market and they are the very days that the PPT try to push gold down.  That fact that they could not is very bullish.

I would point out that the crap analysts of Wall Street are flat out trying to say it is going down but in spite of that less of the sheeple are now believing it.

Doing your own reseach and thinking gives gives the best outcomes.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> You are not sure which way it is going so you go short.  Unless I am reading something wrong, if I was not sure I would stay out.  Gold has been in a confirmed uptrend since 2001 so why the concern all the time of a collapse.  My reading of the last week or so would suggest that the $730 level is now fairly good support which has been tested and held the last two trading days.
> 
> Fridays, traders have had it for the week and Mondays they are rubbing thier eyes.  They are poor days on which to judge the market and they are the very days that the PPT try to push gold down.  That fact that they could not is very bullish.
> 
> I would point out that the crap analysts of Wall Street are flat out trying to say it is going down but in spite of that less of the sheeple are now believing it.
> 
> Doing your own reseach and thinking gives gives the best outcomes.




Well your post says you don't read so well, all my reasons and evidence are in that post read it again and look at the chart.

I am not a long term investor. blind faith is a mans greatest down fall in speculation!


----------



## wavepicker

Trade_It said:


> Well your post says you don't read so well, all my reasons and evidence are in that post read it again, look at the chart.
> 
> I am not a long term investor. blind faith is a mans greatest down fall in speculation!




Hello Joseph,

You saw probable trade, you took the trade, you have a profit(so far), you have contigency plans in place  well done, that's all that matters irrespective of what anyone says !! Now let's see where it might take you.


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> Well your post says you don't read so well, all my reasons and evidence are in that post read it again, look at the chart.
> 
> I am not a long term investor. blind faith is a mans greatest down fall in speculation!




The chart tells me it is going up with some consolidation.   Certainly not a short prospect without confirmation.  Your evidence is technical, been there, trust only the fundamentals and general directions now.

Just my view, and yes us older codgers miss the point some times.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> The chart tells me it is going up with some consolidation.   Certainly not a short prospect without confirmation.  Your evidence is technical, been there, trust only the fundamentals and general directions now.
> 
> Just my view, and yes us older codgers miss the point some times.




LOL, no hard feelings Explod.

Well I trade what the chart tells me and fundamentals second, not that i have anything against fundamental traders/investors. CCi also showing divergence.

I agree the trend in gold is up but on the short term the puff is being taken out of the break which could be a normal consolidation or it could be more, time will tell on that.

But the evidence being presented on the daily gold chart right now tells me to  be short and stay there until futher notice.  

Good trading


----------



## Sean K

Trade_It said:


> I agree the trend in gold is up but on the short term the puff is being taken out of the break which could be a normal consolidation or it could be more, time will tell on that.
> 
> But the evidence being presented on the daily gold chart right now tells me to  be short and stay there until futher notice.
> 
> Good trading



I think there's too much support established at the previous resistance. It's been a big wind up since Apr/May 06...If we break though support it might be short lived.


----------



## CanOz

Trade_It said:


> LOL, no hard feelings Explod.
> 
> Well I trade what the chart tells me and fundamentals second, not that i have anything against fundamental traders/investors. CCi also showing divergence.
> 
> I agree the trend in gold is up but on the short term the puff is being taken out of the break which could be a normal consolidation or it could be more, time will tell on that.
> 
> But the evidence being presented on the daily gold chart right now tells me to  be short and stay there until futher notice.
> 
> Good trading




This should eventually provide another buying opportunity before the next big move up yes?

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> This should eventually provide another buying opportunity before the next big move up yes?
> 
> Cheers,




Hi Can,


Yes it does have all the hallmarks of a continuation from the support at 630 area as i type spot price is at that support area 730.5 - 731.5, like i said  i will ride it out until proven wrong. the way in rejected the rally and where the lower high was made with the lead up really sold the short to me. 

Time will tell.


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> The USD generally rallies between Dec to Feb on a seasonal bsis. Whatever Gold is gonna do it's running out of time on this leg up IMO.




So what did gold do between December and January 05-06?


----------



## bean

Wavepicker thanks for the explanation.
Kennas if this is C wave down POG US$ 540 back on the table

However first lets look at possible support for Gold Indexs
Period 10-14 sept I mentioned the indexs were in support and resistance range well that should be first support levels to look at.
HUI was 365  XAU 155  userx  16.00
Today 388 168 17.44
So 5-10% to fall see how they respond near that level
Should be there in a few days

I still believe Gold Indexs and market in general is moving together.
But I see no weakness in US Market
Is it going to have a Gap down out of the blue???

S&P 500 did that complete a B wave from the lows in August???
Nasdaq has strength making highs.
Reporting kicks in tomorrow has it been buy and now going to be sell the news??

A lot of Aussie gold stocks made there high on the 1st October


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> So what did gold do between December and January 05-06?




Do you know what a price chart is??


----------



## >Apocalypto<

chops_a_must said:


> So what did gold do between December and January 05-06?




Chopps, 

Wavepickers point is its seasonally not a deffinate no one is saying its a sure thing to happen so why are you always coming out with points to shot his comments down.

i looked at the chart and yes gold rallied though there so now here is your challenge u go back though spot gold for the last 100 years and work out the rises to the falls in that time period. then you will have your own answer.

with any seasonal occurance you can find times it did not work to shot down a that posters point.

I will tell u something some free advice if u like.....

Wavepicker is a excelent trader, one of if not the best who posts in here he is one of the few that can pin point market turn dates. Do u have a proven time analysis aspect to your trading or are u herad following report reading hope junkie?

I have learnt so much from Wavepicker and i don't use EW at all, so I suggest u appreciate what he has to say, whether u agree or disagree with his analysis.

sorry to sound Harsh, but u don't know how lucky your are as a new young trader to be exposed to this kind of analysis open your mind mate!

Regards
Joseph


----------



## chops_a_must

Trade_It said:


> Chopps,
> 
> Wavepickers point is its seasonally not a deffinate no one is saying its a sure thing to happen so why are you always coming out with points to shot his comments down.
> 
> i looked at the chart and yes gold rallied though there so now here is your challenge u go back though spot gold for the last 100 years and work out the rises to the falls in that time period. then you will have your own answer.
> 
> with any seasonal occurance you can find times it did not work to shot down a that posters point.
> 
> I will tell u something some free advice if u like.....
> 
> Wavepicker is a excelent trader, one of if not the best who posts in here he is one of the few that can pin point market turn dates. Do u have a proven time analysis aspect to your trading or are u herad following report reading hope junkie?
> 
> I have learnt so much from Wavepicker and i don't use EW at all, so I suggest u appreciate what he has to say, whether u agree or disagree with his analysis.
> 
> In closing, If you left ASF i would neither care or notice. If Wavepicker left there would be a massive hole in quality anaysis in here!
> 
> sorry to sound Harsh, but u don't know how lucky your are as a new young trader to be exposed to this kind of analysis open your mind mate!
> 
> Regards
> Joseph




I am very appreciative.

But as my philosophical predisposition dictates; I question, question, question. When one stops questioning, one stops learning.

I don't like inductivism, am a fan of Poppers and dislike the "all swans are white" mentality. Hence the nitpicking.

The onus of proof isn't on me to provide evidence for seasonal analysis. My criticism can be as simple as, "Where is your proof?" In which in this case, in part, it is.

I have absolutely no doubt Wavepicker is an excellent trader. His discretionary choice when taking trades is superb, with entries at low risk points, where confirmation is quick and allows for maximum profit run (and this is demonstrable in his posts). That is the key IMO to any discretionary set up.

No, I don't have time analysis, and there are philosophical reasons why I won't attempt this, as well as practical. I don't use much margin, so it is not a factor on the practical side. And on the philosophical side; free markets and capitalism are based on a philosophy that did not account for time - they are pre-transcendental.

And no, I don't read reports like the herd. If you've followed me long enough on here, you will know I've been on stocks well before they have taken off. AOE, AED and ESG to name a few. Not to mention the eco-tech stocks.

I appreciate greatly what Wavepicker has to say. Even when I'm saying I disagree with him, a lot of the time I secretly am in agreeance. There is nothing like thinking harder when someone forces you too. And as I have said to Waves before, even though I've only attempted to use EW a few times (with pretty good results), I do believe it works well if you subscribe to the idea that free markets are another place where game theory can be applied.

I know ASF would be worse off if he left. But my point is to push him to an even higher level of analysis, which is how I like to be pushed in my areas of expertise.

I know I am incredibly lucky to be exposed to great traders on here. If it wasn't for this forum, I never would have read Nick's book, and never would have exceeded my expectations in my first year of trading. And I certainly wouldn't be looking at taking the path I now am, without being exposed to the great variety of traders that are on here.

So in summary, I'm sorry if my natural way of questioning and way of learning rubs people up the wrong way. It's certainly not my intention. But I guess that's why Socrates was so hated hey?

Thanks for taking the time to read.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## wavepicker

I'd like to settle this in the best manner I know, with a chart.
My comments a few posts ago where that the USD was generally seasonally stronger during the months of Dec-Feb. Most seasoned Forex traders know this so it's nothing new.

Let's look at the chart attached for the last 3 years:-

2004: USD Rallied from Feb to May
2005: USD Rallied Dec to November
2006: USD Rallied Jan-Feb

Just to name a few years....

Chops A Must is a nitpicker if I ever saw one. Perhaps if he focused his efforts elsewhere he might learn something that might actually help his style.

 His posts are rarely constructive and give him an inch and he will attack without hesitation, especially if it does not suit his circumstances. Well if that’s the way you like it Chops then fine, I’ll be watching your posts from now on baby.

At times I make posts trades/forecasts here like others Chops, some work out others don’t. I like to share my thoughts with other traders and exchange ideas as well as look at alternative view points because I like others have biases.

How about you share some of your thoughts and rationale behind your trades as well in a constructive manner instead attacking. Most other do, why can’t you?

PS: if you don’t like what I have to say then it’s simple, put me on your ignore list and read something else, it’s really easy, I am sure you can  do it. 


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> How about you share some of your thoughts and rationale behind your trades as well in a constructive manner instead attacking. Most other do, why can’t you?



I have and will continue to. Check the previous page for a potential set up on GOLD.

The USD index has now put in a hard bottom after a mini-capitulation. I certainly wouldn't be short at the moment. And no, I'm not long on anything gold at the moment either. If anything I would be short.


----------



## wavepicker

Trade_It said:


> Chopps,
> 
> Wavepickers point is its seasonally not a deffinate no one is saying its a sure thing to happen so why are you always coming out with points to shot his comments down.
> 
> i looked at the chart and yes gold rallied though there so now here is your challenge u go back though spot gold for the last 100 years and work out the rises to the falls in that time period. then you will have your own answer.
> 
> with any seasonal occurance you can find times it did not work to shot down a that posters point.
> 
> I will tell u something some free advice if u like.....
> 
> Wavepicker is a excelent trader, one of if not the best who posts in here he is one of the few that can pin point market turn dates. Do u have a proven time analysis aspect to your trading or are u herad following report reading hope junkie?
> 
> I have learnt so much from Wavepicker and i don't use EW at all, so I suggest u appreciate what he has to say, whether u agree or disagree with his analysis.
> 
> sorry to sound Harsh, but u don't know how lucky your are as a new young trader to be exposed to this kind of analysis open your mind mate!
> 
> Regards
> Joseph




I appreciate your comments Joseph,

I must be honest here and say I have had problems with certain members of this community at times, probably more so from writing style and misunderstandings as I have always had problems with conveying my thoughts via written expression. 

However I am very thankful for this site for giving me the opportunities to meet other traders such as yourself, Richkid and  in particular Magdoran,  who was not only a close neighbor(I didn’t know that before I met him), but also now a very close friend and probably the trader who has had the greatest influences on thinking.  He has helped me tremendously in particular, in un shackling my biases and also helping look at the market in a more objective manner, and believe  me I can be stubborn at times. 

Also for drumming into me the importance of TIME(at which I am still a novice in comparison). As WD Gann said Time is more important than price, when time is up the trend must change.
 It’s the only constant on the chart, it doesn’t fluctuate and therefore not only an easier but IMO should be the primary  and a superior axis that one should work from. Also the realization that at times there is order in the market, not necessarily always accuracy but certainly order.

This has enabled me to build upon the knowledge that I have and now view the market with new set of eyes, being more open minded about the probabilities/possibilities  before making a decision.

I have nicknamed Magdoran “The Master of Time” because I have never met anyone who can call crucial pivots as CONSISTANTLY as he can. At times I believe he under estimates his own abilities.

My journey in this field is in its infancy and it will take me as long to be proficient in this area, probably as much  time as  it took to go to a higher level using EW.

Kind Regards

Wavepicker


----------



## Kauri

and gold is looking bullish again to me after the _small??_ W*4* retrace..
  Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## wavepicker

Kauri said:


> and gold is looking bullish again to me after the _small??_ W*4* retrace..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Sure looks like a typical wave 4 pattern Kauri(perhaps a developing contracting triangle). If this is the case then this might be the last leg up in this impulse from the last consolidation, as these types of patterns often precede wave 5’s.

The whole advance from the lows of last year looks very sluggish/corrective in my opinion. Would not be surprised if this whole advance is a wave B suckers play. Although there might be another $25 upside from the apex of the triangle  I am gonna sit this one out.


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Sure looks like a typical wave 4 pattern Kauri(perhaps a developing contracting triangle). If this is the case then this might be the last leg up in this impulse from the last consolidation, as these types of patterns often precede wave 5’s.
> 
> The whole advance from the lows of last year looks very sluggish/corrective in my opinion. Would not be surprised if this whole advance is a wave B suckers play. Although there might be another $25 upside from the apex of the triangle  I am gonna sit this one out.




Suckers some of us maybe but I am with the momentum of the uptrend, as to be out of gold and gold stocks could be to miss the uptrend as people rush out of dollars and into anything else that will hold value and a big part of that has to be gold.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Suckers some of us maybe but I am with the momentum of the uptrend, as to be out of gold and gold stocks could be to miss the uptrend as people rush out of dollars and into anything else that will hold value and a big part of that has to be gold.




You do what you think is best my friend, you are the captain of your own ship, just giving my opinion which has been wrong as many times as it has been right. However I don't disagree there is probably a little more upside from here.

Was not referring to you or anybody else holding as suckers, but rather describing the type of move or pattern of trend (wave B)

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> Sure looks like a typical wave 4 pattern Kauri(perhaps a developing contracting triangle). If this is the case then this might be the last leg up in this impulse from the last consolidation, as these types of patterns often precede wave 5’s.



Might be too early to call but looks like the contracting triangle may be breaking up. Holding above $742 might do it. 

Futures just breaking $750, HUI/XAU breaking up to record highs, while DJI comes off a little....

I wonder how much of the next expected rate cut if factored in to USD weakness and these gains.

Bean, I can't see how your $540 can be still on the table here.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> Might be too early to call but looks like the contracting triangle may be breaking up. Holding above $742 might do it.
> 
> Futures just breaking $750, HUI/XAU breaking up to record highs, while DJI comes off a little....
> 
> I wonder how much of the next expected rate cut if factored in to USD weakness and these gains.
> 
> Bean, I can't see how your $540 can be still on the table here.




Looking at the Spot Price it has not done so, but might do so tommorow I guess??

Happy the DJI is pulling back as I am short it tonight and will have another go at shorting XJO in next few days too.

In April last year had an ultimate target (waveC)for Spot to reach about $490 before resuming bullishly, it never got there although made great $$ in the first wave A leg to $541. Would not surprise it to pull down to this level when wave B is finished which is what  am anticipating. But for now Wave B remains unfinished and might make it all the way to $765/770 before this happens??


----------



## BlueDaze

*Gold Wave C to $490 or $541*



wavepicker said:


> In April last year had an ultimate target (waveC)for Spot to reach about *$490* before resuming bullishly, it never got there although made great $$ in the first wave A leg to *$541*. Would not surprise it to pull down to this level when wave B is finished which is what  am anticipating. But for now Wave B remains unfinished and might make it all the way to $765/770 before this happens?



Hi wavepicker,

Do you mean pull down to the $490 or $541 level?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> Hi Bean,
> 
> I also see some weakness in Gold.
> 
> Last night I went short on it,
> 
> My reasons this break out has made a normal trend up to it's current position.
> 
> formed its frist minor band at 630 normal, but the break out that followed was sold back down to 630 in two sessions, found support around 630 again normal. rallied again to 640's straight away it found weakness forming a creeping band with a lower high that was my entry. POG has weakened again , now if that area of support fails to hold again i will add to my trade. On the bullish side that support may hold again suggesting as long as it can hold above it it's a trading range with a break above 645 to 650 confirming a creeping trend to fast trend up a bullish sign. I am sitting short on it until that is proven.
> 
> Good trading.




Follow up on my short. 

Price found support at the 730 range and promptly rallied, I was stopped out for a profit.

still watching gold as its confirmed a range now.


----------



## bean

Well the top might be in the POG!!!

I bought some shares today.
However I will say, if this is indeed a breakout a lot of shares have not participated and would expect them to move - catchup
A few shares I bought today
Macmin sold 3 weeks ago at .28 bought back today at .265
Citigold sold 3 weeks ago at .425 bought back to at .41
They did nothing during my absense yet POG and Silver rising.

I have said and still believe the US gold Indexs are still joined to movements in the general market.
At the moment nothing is stopping the Market.  It appears to be factoring in two more rate cuts of .5% this year.
The Nasdaq is being driven by Google currently US$630 per share expecting earnings this quarter of $3.95.  Google expected to keep rising till it reports next week 18th.  By then its price will be about $662 per share.

Will 1 share of Google be worth more than an OZ of Gold by the end of the year?

So until reality hits everything the Market and POG may keep rising.
When reality does hit will everything fall


----------



## explod

Gold tonight is making a new 27 year high.  With talk of at least another and perhaps more US interest rate cuts the US dollar will resume its downtrend which in turn is bullish for gold.

This weekly gold chart is intersting as it gives a clear view of the first consolidation phase from early 2004 to August of 2005 at around US$430.  From then till May 06 we see a jump in the price to a weekly close of about  US$714.    We then had a sharp drop away but good consolidation at around 650.  I am not one to postulate on the potential outcomes from here on the charts as they speak after the event.  However there appears good momentum now.

If and perhaps a big if, the gold price can begin to move under its own steam, regardless of the markets (as you have identified Bean) this next upleg could go to the US$1,000 mark in the next month or two.

It will be interesting to see what unfolds as a number of major investment houses are recommending their clients hold up to 20%gold or gold stocks in thier portfolios.  So compared to the spike of 2006 there is a whole new and stronger level of interest.


----------



## So_Cynical

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Gold broke the 750 USD mark at about 2am our time
not moving as much on the cross rates...just the USD.

Clear Sky's hey.


----------



## Whiskers

I was watching kitco earlier when a banner popped up inviting people to test a new kitco software product KCAST. It drops the live price of Gold, platinum, palladium and silver onto your system tray near the time. You can show all or any one. Right click on the price and bring up a 24 hour chart, click the button on the window to change to 30 day, 6 months or year. 

I got it for free. All they ask for is some feedback daily. Anyone else get it?

For me it beats having another browser window open or frequently hitting the favourites link and back again.

This is the daily chart.


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Well the top might be in the POG!!!
> 
> I bought some shares today.
> 
> 
> I have said and still believe the US gold Indexs are still joined to movements in the general market.
> 
> 
> So until reality hits everything the Market and POG may keep rising.
> When reality does hit will everything fall




Well was it the top in POG - Gold Index's and the DOW
It was a huge reversal day on big volume
and they all reversed at about the same time

Has reality finally hit?

Tonight and Monday may give the clues


----------



## explod

bean said:


> Well was it the top in POG - Gold Index's and the DOW
> It was a huge reversal day on big volume
> and they all reversed at about the same time
> 
> Has reality finally hit?
> 
> Tonight and Monday may give the clues




Maybe it is gaining its own legs:-



> "October 11 excerpts:
> (from Bloomberg) --
> Gold rose to the highest price since 1980 as a decline in the value of the dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. "Gold is gearing up for another rally," said Paul McLeod, vice president of the precious-metals department at Commerzbank Securities in New York. "It's moving with the dollar, but it's also gathering its own momentum." Gold is headed for the seventh straight annual gain as the dollar has fallen 7.7 percent against the euro this year. "There's technical buying, there's investment buying," said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a gold trader and president of Hudson River Futures in New York. "Long-term buyers are coming into the market who are holding and won't sell for a quick profit." Dennis Gartman, a trader, economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, today advised clients to buy the metal once spot gold rose above $750 or topped 530 euros. "People prefer the security of gold," said Walter Otstott, a senior broker at Dallas Commodity Co. in Dallas. "Investors are losing faith in the resiliency of fiat currencies." Adjusted for inflation (see chart), gold is still below its all-time high, some analysts said. Based on 1980 dollars, the January 1980 record of $873 would be $2177 today. "Based on inflation-adjusted dollars, gold still has a long way to go," said Perez-Santalla of Hudson River Futures..."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I have taken some profits this week; will a general market correction drag gold & gold stocks down again too or are we entering a new era?

Some thoughts from Marc Faber - 



> Consequently, I expect commodities to continue to out-perform financial assets including equities - although I admit that gold is now significantly over-bought from a near term perspective (as is the dollar over-sold).
> 
> How would gold perform in a deflationary global recession? Initially gold could come under some pressure as well but once the realization sinks in how messy deflation would be for over-indebted countries and households, its price would likely soar.
> 
> Therefore, under both scenarios - stagflation or deflationary recession - gold, gold equities and other precious metals should continue to perform better than financial assets.



http://www.ameinfo.com/134334.html


----------



## bean

How many gold bulls believe the world stock markets are not in a bubble at the moment.
Those that do believe they may be in bubbles know what happens when bubbles pop.
POG and gold shares will be no different they are moving in line with the general market 

I mentionioned Google the other day look for a price of $662
well it now $637   and they were looking for earnings this quarter of $3.95
Its P/E  51.8


----------



## Whiskers

bean said:


> How many gold bulls believe the world stock markets are not in a bubble at the moment.




Hi bean 

I don't dispute that stockmarkets are in 'high territory' at the moment, but I'm not sure that is a bubble. For me a bubble is essentially a symptom of over inflated prices. There seems to be a genuine gap between supply and demand driving most prices even POG, factoring in lower reserve bank sales in the future, from what I can see. 

Having said that I'm glad your play the devils advocate position. How do you perceive there to be a bubble?


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Well was it the top in POG - Gold Index's and the DOW
> It was a huge reversal day on big volume
> and they all reversed at about the same time
> 
> Has reality finally hit?
> 
> Tonight and Monday may give the clues



Or will it be next Tuesday and Wednesday? 

You'll be a genius one day bean...


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Or will it be next Tuesday and Wednesday?
> 
> You'll be a genius one day bean...




Well I bought Macmin and Conquest today but they are silver 
thats BEAN lagging hasn't it got some catching up to do to POG


----------



## Kauri

Looking for a fifth wave in this one... around$800 would be nice.. : 
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

bean said:


> Well I bought Macmin and Conquest today but they are silver
> thats BEAN lagging hasn't it got some catching up to do to POG




Yes, but some steady movement over the last week or so.  Apafrt from the last six months or so I had noticed silver for the most part lead gold and was a strong indicator of P/M moves.  If silver breaks out it will be bullish.

An interesting fact, the world gold price at the moment has only been surpassed on four trading days in history and that was 28 years ago.  It is very underpriced on an inflation adjusted basis so we could see very interesting times for gold indeed and soon.


----------



## Sean K

Spot testing $760 but HUI and XAU rejecting highs. Only just I suppose, but maybe a bit of profit taking.


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> Looking for a fifth wave in this one... around$800 would be nice.. :
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



What's the budgie say Kauri?


----------



## wavepicker

Foreign curencies look like they may be ready to retreat here for a while, could be that POG does likewise in the weeks ahead.

(Oops should have not said that- the Gold bulls will be out in force with all the fundemental BS again)


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Foreign curencies look like they may be ready to retreat here for a while, could be that POG does likewise in the weeks ahead.
> 
> (Oops should have not said that- the Gold bulls will be out in force with all the fundemental BS again)




Where is the BS in fundamantals?  The retreat in the Aussie dollar put the Aussie gold price up $10 overnight, where is the retreat for gold.  

Fundamentalists deal in the why, how and now which I would argue is also technical.   Most gold bugs deal in both anyway.  They are also usually, ion ore bugs, lead, nickel, uranium, oil, gas, food and any other thinggy that is going up bugs.

You need a stronger can of fly spray.


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Where is the BS in fundamantals?  The retreat in the Aussie dollar put the Aussie gold price up $10 overnight, where is the retreat for gold.
> 
> Fundamentalists deal in the why, how and now which I would argue is also technical.   Most gold bugs deal in both anyway.  They are also usually, ion ore bugs, lead, nickel, uranium, oil, gas, food and any other thinggy that is going up bugs.
> 
> You need a stronger can of fly spray.




Oops, I suppose there is a big difference between a BUG and a BULL, my dislexia coming to the fore here.

Bean, interesting that the Dow down over 100 overnight with gold and the HUI up, do we have a decoupling now.   From a Tech the HUI looked overbought last week but it continues to defy.   Silver still repressed though.  As with other commercial metals there seems to be a lot of manipulation to fit contracts.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> What's the budgie say Kauri?




He called in his big cousin..got his eye on the bell but not ringing it yet.
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> Foreign curencies look like they may be ready to retreat here for a while, could be that POG does likewise in the weeks ahead.
> 
> (Oops should have not said that- the Gold bulls will be out in force with all the fundemental BS again)



Still on the wrong side of the trade, huh?


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Still on the wrong side of the trade, huh?




What trade might that be Chops???

The only trades I am in ATM are short positions in the DJIA


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> What trade might that be Chops???
> 
> The only trades I am in ATM are short positions in the DJIA




You've been calling a sell on gold since 720.


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> You've been calling a sell on gold since 720.




Is that right??????


Are you quoting the sell I made last year when it fell over $100?? 


Chops, I think you might have some problems,  perhaps you should stick to something your good at like philosophy.


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> Is that right??????
> 
> 
> Are you quoting the sell I made last year when it fell over $100??
> 
> 
> Chops, I think you might have some problems,  perhaps you should stick to something your good at like philosophy.



Mate, you're embarrassing yourself.

Gold has been going nuts, and you haven't traded it. In fact, you've harrassed anyone who has gone long on gold. Yet, they are the ones on the right side of the trade at the moment.

I said gold would get above 750. I'm only a mug. But it sure as hell hasn't taken Einstein to trade this.

Just cool it, and suck it up snookums, because you are looking like an absolute fool in private messages here.


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Mate, you're embarrassing yourself.
> 
> Gold has been going nuts, and you haven't traded it. In fact, you've harrassed anyone who has gone long on gold. Yet, they are the ones on the right side of the trade at the moment.
> 
> I said gold would get above 750. I'm only a mug. But it sure as hell hasn't taken Einstein to trade this.
> 
> Just cool it, and suck it up snookums, because you are looking like an absolute fool in private messages here.





Actually, I was a Gold bull while you were still in your nappies back in 2001 when I went long in Gold and liquidated my holdings last year @ $660 Chops and I then went short multiple times. 

See for yourself:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23





Yes I held for 5 years, Chops, longer than you have held, it’s called buy low and sell high. Not buy at the tail end of the run and sell for a fraction higher and beat your chest with your fellow cohorts like you are something. Gold went nuts last year Chops, both in the up and the down direction, this year there is only one nut.


As for harassing, I have harrassed no one, only offered an alternate opinion which is why this forum exists, not for you, and not for your private messenger from Mt Martha to dominate.
If anything Chops YOU have the reputation of being the harasser here, Ohhh and don’t worry, chops your name has cropped up in the “fool” category not just in my mail box, but at meetings at cafÃ©’s here in Melbourne with at least 5 other ASF posters, bet you didn’t know that now did you??


Last post you claimed I said sell @ $720, I am still waiting for you to quote me on this with the proof. I ain’t there.


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> As for harassing, I have harrassed no one, only offered an alternate opinion which is why this forum exists, not for you, and not for your private messenger from Mt Martha to dominate.
> 
> Last post you claimed I said sell @ $720, I am still waiting for you to quote me on this with the proof. I ain’t there.






wavepicker said:


> Foreign curencies look like they may be ready to retreat here for a while, could be that POG does likewise in the weeks ahead.
> 
> (Oops should have not said that- *the Gold bulls will be out in force with all the fundemental BS again*)




You have been saying this for more than 6 months now. You have been calling an end to the rise in gold ever since it broke 720. That is much as a call on saying a sell, as saying a rise is a buy. But this is just nonsense, you obviously don't like any questioning what so ever. You obviously think gold should have reversed by now, it hasn't, and I think it has a little further to go. That makes a market.

And who cares about not getting on things early? If you can get a very quick 15-20%, with low risk, that's pretty damn good in my books. And there looks to be a very very good opportunity to the same again. And I reaffirm my target for the ticker GOLD, to reach 96.

I don't particularly care about trades done done well in the past. I'm only interested in the now. Just because someone/ something is right 1000 times in a row, does not mean they will be the 1001st. 

I have pointed out to you trades that I think are good presently, that you have entered. This one however seems to be staring you right in the face. I just don't understand the inability to reverse positions. Being right is not of paramount importance to me.

But it is nice you acknowledge I may actually be good at something.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

There seems to be a bigger correlation between gold & oil for several weeks now. A wall of worry developing for those thinking a correction is due.
Then again, those crazy Japanese have decided it's time to buy! The first IOU nothing currency to actually be worth ziltch, but still fuels the global bubble supplying 'money for nothing'.

* Japan's grannies drive up gold prices*

Gold has soared to a fresh 28-year high of $760 (£372) an ounce on fears of global currency disorder and a surge of buying by Japanese investors using exotic trading signals.
Traders report a sudden burst of activity on the TOCOM gold futures markets in Tokyo as the price breaks through the psychological barrier of 3,000 yen (£12.52) per gramme, the measure used by the Japanese to trade gold.

The country's irrepressible grannies rely heavily on Ichimoku "cloud charts", multi-faceted indicators designed to give support/resistance levels in various markets, which have issued a powerful buy signal in recent days.
John Reade, head of precious metals at UBS, said the Japan can be a major driver of the gold price. "Japanese buying can come out of the blue, but it is too soon yet to tell whether they are about to take over the gold market," he said. "When the Japanese public move in with reckless abandon, everybody else gets out of the way. They can be the last to join the rally."

The fresh interest in gold comes as the yen renews its slide, hit by signs that the economy may be tipping back into deflation after the housing collapse during the summer. Housing starts fell 23.4pc in July and 43.4pc in August as new laws came into effect. The Bank of Japan has signalled that it will keep interest rates at 0.5pc for the foreseeable future, inviting funds to step up borrowing in Tokyo to chase higher yields elsewhere through the global "carry trade".
Rising inflation across China, India, the Middle East, eastern Europe and Latin America have all created the backdrop for a major move in gold. Citigroup said a global "reflation rally" caused by cuts in US interest rates could push prices above $1,000 an ounce.
UBS has upgraded its long-term forecast, but is cautious for now. "The net long positions on the US futures markets are at all-time highs. They have been at extreme levels for four weeks and when that happens you can be sure there will be a correction. It could be any time now," said Mr Reade.


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> This one however seems to be staring you right in the face. I just don't understand the inability to reverse positions. Being right is not of paramount importance to me.





Just because I have not taken a long trade in Gold does not mean I am sitting there mulling Chops A Must. Look at yourself, you missed an obvious short trade in mid July let alone exit your longs, that was staring you in the face too as well as others but most did jack but hope. I have taken trades(probably many more than you) , not in Gold however as I think it's at the tail end of it's run. Simply right or wrong that's how I see it and I will be looking for opportunities either long or short when they present themselves. At present I have no plans to trade Gold or Gold stocks because IMO most Gold stocks might be in the midst of finishing off 5th waves.

Good to see you made a small profit, but the hard part is not getting in, that 's  the easy bit, the hard part is knowing when to get out.

Good Luck


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Continued.......

The Swiss bank (UBS) is the world biggest manager of funds for the super-wealthy and is closely watched by gold experts. It timed the latest rally perfectly, issuing a "table-thumping" buy alert to clients on 21 August just as gold began a surge of $114 an ounce.

Ichimoku Kinko charts look impenetrable to westerners. Nicole Elliott, a technical analyst at Mizuho, said their unique features is to look both forwards and backwards.

 "The Japanese started charting rice futures in the 1700s.. They are streets ahead of us. I use Ichimoku charts all the time, and wouldn't be without them. You can't even begin to trade the dollar-yen otherwise," she said.
"What you can see on gold is that it closed last Friday above technical uber-resistance, telling anybody still hesitating that it was time to jump in. 

Even so, we like the platinum group metals best. Platinum has reached an all-time high of $1428 an ounce, and palldium looks even better. If it closes above $380 an ounce, it is going to fly," she said.


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> Just because I have not taken a long trade in Gold does not mean I am sitting there mulling Chops A Must. *Look at yourself, you missed an obvious short trade in mid July let alone exit your longs, that was staring you in the face too as well as others but most did jack but hope.* I have taken trades(probably many more than you) , not in Gold however as I think it's at the tail end of it's run. Simply right or wrong that's how I see it and I will be looking for opportunities either long or short when they present themselves. At present I have no plans to trade Gold or Gold stocks because IMO most Gold stocks might be in the midst of finishing off 5th waves.
> 
> Good to see you made a small profit, but the hard part is not getting in, that 's  the easy bit, the hard part is knowing when to get out.
> 
> Good Luck



Well, I don't have any shame in saying I was stopped out of about 6 trades (off the top of my head) over that time. Meanwhile I was paper shorting MBL, CSL, WBC and COH. After that I realised I couldn't be long only, and that's where I'm at now. 

My methodology is simple: set stops, set targets, before I'm in the trade. Get out when one is hit.


While we get back to important matters, gold is finally breaking out against all currencies by the looks...


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> While we get back to important matters, gold is finally breaking out against all currencies by the looks...




Which currencies might they be ??


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Which currencies might they be ??





Just for today as we speak



Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies.  
 Exchange Rates   
(Exchange rates displayed are the middle point between bid and ask) [details] 
Currency Chg%
X=1$USD NY Time X=
1$USD X$USD
=1 Gold
Price/oz Gold
Chg Gold
Chg% 
US Dollar -- 10/16-04:20 -- -- 761.00 +4.10  +0.54% 
 Australian Dollar -0.79% 10/16-04:19 1.1208 0.8922 852.93 +11.26   +1.34% 
 Brazilian Real +0.33% 10/16-03:10 1.8020 0.5549 1371.32 +2.85   +0.21% 
 British Pound -0.27% 10/16-04:19 0.4909 2.0373 373.54 +3.00   +0.81% 
 Canadian Dollar -0.26% 10/16-04:19 0.9792 1.0213 745.13 +5.91   +0.80% 
 Chinese Yuan +0.14% 10/16-03:50 7.5130 0.1331 5717.39 +22.86   +0.40% 
 Euro -0.20% 10/16-04:19 0.7056 1.4173 536.92 +3.95   +0.74% 
 Indian Rupee -0.41% 10/16-04:10 39.3650 0.0254 29956.77 +282.50   +0.95% 
 Japanese Yen +0.41% 10/16-04:19 116.8750 0.0086 88941.88 +115.88   +0.13% 
 Mexican Pesos -0.11% 10/16-04:10 10.8335 0.0923 8244.29 +53.58   +0.65% 
 Russian Ruble -0.11% 10/16-04:10 24.9323 0.0401 18973.44 +122.77   +0.65% 
 S.African Rand -1.38% 10/16-04:19 6.8830 0.1453 5237.96 +99.37   +1.93% 
 Swiss Franc -0.18% 10/16-04:19 1.1830 0.8453 900.22 +6.44   +0.72%


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> Just for today as we speak
> 
> 
> 
> Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies.
> Exchange Rates
> (Exchange rates displayed are the middle point between bid and ask) [details]
> Currency Chg%
> X=1$USD NY Time X=
> 1$USD X$USD
> =1 Gold
> Price/oz Gold
> Chg Gold
> Chg%
> US Dollar -- 10/16-04:20 -- -- 761.00 +4.10  +0.54%
> Australian Dollar -0.79% 10/16-04:19 1.1208 0.8922 852.93 +11.26   +1.34%
> Brazilian Real +0.33% 10/16-03:10 1.8020 0.5549 1371.32 +2.85   +0.21%
> British Pound -0.27% 10/16-04:19 0.4909 2.0373 373.54 +3.00   +0.81%
> Canadian Dollar -0.26% 10/16-04:19 0.9792 1.0213 745.13 +5.91   +0.80%
> Chinese Yuan +0.14% 10/16-03:50 7.5130 0.1331 5717.39 +22.86   +0.40%
> Euro -0.20% 10/16-04:19 0.7056 1.4173 536.92 +3.95   +0.74%
> Indian Rupee -0.41% 10/16-04:10 39.3650 0.0254 29956.77 +282.50   +0.95%
> Japanese Yen +0.41% 10/16-04:19 116.8750 0.0086 88941.88 +115.88   +0.13%
> Mexican Pesos -0.11% 10/16-04:10 10.8335 0.0923 8244.29 +53.58   +0.65%
> Russian Ruble -0.11% 10/16-04:10 24.9323 0.0401 18973.44 +122.77   +0.65%
> S.African Rand -1.38% 10/16-04:19 6.8830 0.1453 5237.96 +99.37   +1.93%
> Swiss Franc -0.18% 10/16-04:19 1.1830 0.8453 900.22 +6.44   +0.72%




Looks to be the lot doesn't it?


----------



## So_Cynical

Nice multi currency break out today....still some Aussie stocks not 
moving up, half the Goldie's on my watchlist fell.... Go figure.


----------



## bean

So_Cynical said:


> Nice multi currency break out today....still some Aussie stocks not
> moving up, half the Goldie's on my watchlist fell.... Go figure.




Yes that is the trouble a lot of gold stocks have not participated.
Yes some had large jumps from there August lows 
But with the price of Gold they showed "all" be exploding to the upside.
Silver is lagging can't get past US$ 14 and stay above it.
Bears/bearish positions have been in a number of stocks for a week or too.
Yes Gold is Bullish,  Yes Oil is Bullish,  Yes the Markets are Bullish.
But if one goes they will all go...the mood of the market will change quickly
A lot of world markets are floating on Air?
G7 meeting soon US$ rally?
Options this friday US markets?
Google reports thursday (Google and Apple have moving the Nasdaq)
Looking at futures at the moment is Silver going to lead Gold down?
Some may say Silver falling may be a good indication of the US going to a recession


----------



## Bush Trader

bean said:


> Looking at futures at the moment is Silver going to lead Gold down?
> Some may say *Silver falling may be a good indication of the US going to a recession*




Can you expand on the reasoning behing this statement please.


Cheers


BT


----------



## explod

Whilst on silver, it has been range bound (some would say in consolidation) since the middle of 2006.  In the last 6 months it has established good support in the US$13.50 area from where it bounced last night.

Gold of course has moved up more than $100 in the last couple of months and we must expect a breather.

I know a lot of followers scoff at fundamentals, but on that basis,  US debt continuing equals continued dollar weakening to bullion strength, the silver breach of $14 will on past jumps see an explosion upwards of the gold price.  This in my view may take a month or two.

Worth noting that in the last 31 years the most bullish time for gold has been  from December to late January.


----------



## bean

Bush Trader said:


> Can you expand on the reasoning behing this statement please.
> 
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> BT



The statement
Quote:
Originally Posted by bean  
Looking at futures at the moment is Silver going to lead Gold down?
Some may say Silver falling may be a good indication of the US going to a recession 

The following is an article from *1990* I can find more recent ones but they are basically the same.
However being a silver bull we believe that silver is not as abundent as what it was But silver is a precious metal and a commodity.
At the moment it appears to be acting like a commodity and is holding POG back but it may also be showing something.



> FUTURES/OPTIONS; Hurt by Recession Fears, Silver Closes Just Over $4
> By REUTERS
> Published: December 14, 1990
> The price of silver traded below $4 an ounce yesterday, hitting its lowest level in 14 years as fears mounted that a recession would deeply cut industrial demand for the metal.
> The metal recovered somewhat to close above $4, but still finished lower for the day.
> "The problem with silver is that it's being hurt by changing expectations that the U.S. recession will be deeper and longer than what had been expected only two months ago," said Jeffrey Nichols of American Precious Metals Advisors, Florida-based investment consultants.
> In trading yesterday, spot silver on the New York Commodity Exchange fell 5.6 cents, to $3.97 an ounce, the low for the day and its lowest point since Feb. 10, 1976, when silver closed at $3.93 an ounce. The contract regained some of that loss, however, to close off 2 cents at $4.006.
> In other precious metals trading, gold for December delivery on the Comex rose $1.60, to $374.30 an ounce, in typically slow year-end dealings.
> Analysts said silver was a metal with a double personality, being both a precious metal and an industrial metal, and the concern was that the recession would mean less silver demanded by industry




Could be a reason why POS is lagging POG


----------



## Bush Trader

bean said:


> The statement
> Quote:
> Originally Posted by bean
> Looking at futures at the moment is Silver going to lead Gold down?
> Some may say Silver falling may be a good indication of the US going to a recession
> 
> The following is an article from *1990* I can find more recent ones but they are basically the same.
> However being a silver bull we believe that silver is not as abundent as what it was But silver is a precious metal and a commodity.
> At the moment it appears to be acting like a commodity and is holding POG back but it may also be showing something.
> 
> 
> 
> Code:
> 
> 
> FUTURES/OPTIONS; Hurt by Recession Fears, Silver Closes Just Over $4
> By REUTERS
> Published: December 14, 1990
> The price of silver traded below $4 an ounce yesterday, hitting its lowest level in 14 years as fears mounted that a recession would deeply cut industrial demand for the metal.
> The metal recovered somewhat to close above $4, but still finished lower for the day.
> "The problem with silver is that it's being hurt by changing expectations that the U.S. recession will be deeper and longer than what had been expected only two months ago," said Jeffrey Nichols of American Precious Metals Advisors, Florida-based investment consultants.
> In trading yesterday, spot silver on the New York Commodity Exchange fell 5.6 cents, to $3.97 an ounce, the low for the day and its lowest point since Feb. 10, 1976, when silver closed at $3.93 an ounce. The contract regained some of that loss, however, to close off 2 cents at $4.006.
> In other precious metals trading, gold for December delivery on the Comex rose $1.60, to $374.30 an ounce, in typically slow year-end dealings.
> Analysts said silver was a metal with a double personality, being both a precious metal and an industrial metal, and the concern was that the recession would mean less silver demanded by industry
> 
> 
> Could be a reason why POS is lagging POG





Thanks for you informative post Bean

Cheers


BT


----------



## explod

Gold Consolidates Recent Gains
by Peter A. Grant
October 17, a.m. (USAGOLD) -- We are happy to welcome Pete Grant to USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals. Mr. Grant is an economist and currency analyst - a position he held with Standard and Poor's for a number of years. We think you are going to appreciate the insights and experience he brings to the early morning installment of our Daily Market Report. - Mike Kosares

Gold is consolidating recent gains after achieving a new 28 year high at $766.60 in overseas trading on Tuesday. An inside day (higher low / lower high) is evident on the daily chart so far today, while intraday charts show the market coiling. This coil (a series of lower highs and higher lows) is a classic continuation pattern and we would therefore anticipate an upside breakout in the direction of the trend. The trend remains unquestionably bullish.

A minor technical point at $770.00 has been reinforced to some degree by yesterday's high, but there seems to be little to prevent short term probes above $800.00. The next major resistance level to contend with is the $875.00 all time high from January 1980.

The following are some breaking news items impacting gold:

Another active session in Asia last night as early buying interest saw gold move back toward the recent highs on less than impressive volume. Subsequently, Japanese names were seen selling more aggressively which knocked gold down about $6 rather quickly.

UBS is reporting that there are signs of gold scarcity in the London market for the first time in years. Gold lease rates have moved higher accordingly.

The recent upside extension in the metals prompted UBS to update their gold forecast for 2008 to an average price of $760.00 per ounce from the previously forecast of $650.00. Note that that is a forecasted average price, which would be consistent with tests above $800.00. We have already made note on the NewsGroup page that Citigroup came out with pretty bullish gold comments last week; suggesting potential is as high as $1,000.00 an ounce.

Oil remains well bid near record highs on solid demand and tight supplies. Continued tensions between Turkey and Iraq are seen as a destabilizing factor in the Middle East. There is concern that if Turkey does stage cross border attacks that the flow if Iraqi oil may be disrupted. Higher oil and heightened geo-political tension are expected to keep gold underpinned.


----------



## bean

At the moment the POG is still Bullish 
However Gold Indexs in the US are correcting?
The HUI has been gapping up at the opening then falling during the day to close at or near the lows of the day.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Well was it the top in POG - Gold Index's and the DOW
> It was a huge reversal day on big volume
> and they all reversed at about the same time
> 
> Has reality finally hit?
> 
> Tonight and Monday may give the clues



Not the top by the look. Futures almost touching $770.

What were the hints from last Friday and Monday Bean?



bean said:


> At the moment the POG is still Bullish
> However Gold Indexs in the US are correcting?
> The HUI has been gapping up at the opening then falling during the day to close at or near the lows of the day.



Indicies have pulled back to some support and bounced for the minute, but perhaps not 'correcting' yet. HUI ay 400 ish, XAU at 173 ish. Your B wave is runing away a bit....

MACDs maybe still hinting at a further pullback to me, but I can only call pull back to support levels identified earlier.


WP, I'm not sure how you get a W5 on the current run.  Can you give me a hint to a starting point? cheers.


----------



## Nick Radge

Here is my seasonal chart for Gold for the month of November. Its clear November is typically a bullish month. This same chart pinpointed September as a strong month and indeed we got the breakout.








_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Not the top by the look. Futures almost touching $770.
> 
> What were the hints from last Friday and Monday Bean?



The Gold Indexs have not taken out those highs.  The US markets have not taken out the highs, So the big reversal day last week still in play?
Gold will be up again tonight?
US$ D day is approaching for a collapse or rally?
I have been in and out of the market like a Yo Yo.
But am back to 100% cash.
Next week may be 100% back in gold stocks?
but may also be glad 100% in cash?


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> The Gold Indexs have not taken out those highs.  The US markets have not taken out the highs, So the big reversal day last week still in play?
> Gold will be up again tonight?
> US$ D day is approaching for a collapse or rally?
> I have been in and out of the market like a Yo Yo.
> But am back to 100% cash.
> Next week may be 100% back in gold stocks?
> but may also be glad 100% in cash?



This is GOLD bean. GOLD I say!   The most decisive post I've seen on ASF for a long time. 

In regard to the highs, weren't you talking about POG highs at the time? I must have misread.

Can you please start a blog somewhere with your current positions so I know where you are at any one time. Cheers.


----------



## So_Cynical

Gold will not retreat :alcohol: 850USD before Xmas.


----------



## bean

bean said:


> The Gold Indexs have not taken out those highs.  The US markets have not taken out the highs, So the big reversal day last week still in play?
> Gold will be up again tonight?
> US$ D day is approaching for a collapse or rally?
> I have been in and out of the market like a Yo Yo.
> But am back to 100% cash.
> Next week may be 100% back in gold stocks?
> but may also be glad 100% in cash?






> Kennae





> This is GOLD bean. GOLD I say!  The most decisive post I've seen on ASF for a long time.
> 
> In regard to the highs, weren't you talking about POG highs at the time? I must have misread.
> 
> Can you please start a blog somewhere with your current positions so I know where you are at any one time. Cheers.




I know it only early in the night but US markets down gold Indexs down   - Reversal day last week still in play 
	
	




		Code:
	

[QUOTE]and are the markets are they taking POG down  or is it going down by its self??[/QUOTE]

 POG up the drops lots but may finish up
In and out of the market like a YO YO  
	
	




		Code:
	

Gold is up and down

refering to cash in and out


----------



## Whiskers

Look what gold just did!


----------



## Gar

lol just noticed that myself  this is going to be one hell of a run over the next few weeks


----------



## Kauri

On the daily chart the red ret. line is 50% of the last leg (W5?)... the green ret. line is 50% of the complete move... wonder which one (if either) hold up??
  Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

One of the greatest global sticking points is the weakening US Dollar yet it rated not a mention at the G7 meeting.   The strength of gold, a direct measure of fiat money is never mentioned.   It is predictable therefore IMHO that in light trade the plunge protection team have been set the task to hit gold hard..    We should expect this to last a few days.   Will be very interesting to see what pans out when Wall Street opens.


----------



## sam76

Gold futures are getting hit atm


Gold 751.20 -17.20 -2.24 

Souce: Bloomberg


----------



## Temjin

sam76 said:


> Gold futures are getting hit atm
> 
> 
> Gold 751.20 -17.20 -2.24
> 
> Souce: Bloomberg




Yeah, love it. Been waiting for this dip for a long while.


----------



## sam76

Temjin said:


> Yeah, love it. Been waiting for this dip for a long while.





yeah, you and me both.   

i'm looking at kgl and gbm for a punt and the usual goldies for something more stable.


----------



## Boyou

"Yeah, love it. Been waiting for this dip for a long while."

 Can you elaborate on this stement? Just curious to know if you see the dip as a buying op..or you have philosophical reasons for being glad.


Cheers Ya'll


----------



## bean

Boyou said:


> "Yeah, love it. Been waiting for this dip for a long while."
> 
> Can you elaborate on this stement? Just curious to know if you see the dip as a buying op..or you have philosophical reasons for being glad.
> 
> 
> Cheers Ya'll



It may be a buying dip.  A lot of gold bulls are not fully in this market so I am looking gold still being reasonably strong however if selling in the geeral markets intensifies then ???? Is it a larger correction as people look for liquidity again and go to cash US$ or Bonds.
But IRAN is the dark horse I think.


----------



## sam76

sam76 said:


> Gold futures are getting hit atm
> 
> 
> Gold 751.20 -17.20 -2.24
> 
> Souce: Bloomberg




slowly clawing back (still a long way to go)

Gold 753.70 -14.70 -1.91


----------



## Bushman

To all the gold bulls watching the POG tumble, remember the way gold moved in the early stages of the last correction and then what happened when the Feds decided that they would sacrifice the green back to ensure that the US remained in the game. Here is a good article on the correlation between the metal of the ancients and the unruly beast that is the US capital markets. 

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2007/1018.html

Uncle Ben will ride interests rates down to save his place in history with the USD being offered up a sacrifice to keep the wheels of the capital markets churning. 

Gold will rebound and push on strongly.


----------



## explod

Bushman said:


> To all the gold bulls watching the POG tumble, remember the way gold moved in the early stages of the last correction and then what happened when the Feds decided that they would sacrifice the green back to ensure that the US remained in the game. Here is a good article on the correlation between the metal of the ancients and the unruly beast that is the US capital markets.
> 
> http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2007/1018.html
> 
> Uncle Ben will ride interests rates down to save his place in history with the USD being offered up a sacrifice to keep the wheels of the capital markets churning.
> 
> Gold will rebound and push on strongly.




Thanks Bushman, a very good article on the bigger picture.   It appears the price drop anticipated will be short lived.  It has bounced off the US$750 area which is now a confirmed support level.


----------



## CanOz

Thanks for the article, i like his style, esp the metaphor, hehe.

Last nights candle hit (not shown obviously) a low that coincided with that high back in 1980, and it rejected that low convincingly. This could be the entry point that i have been looking for. 

Hope fully a little consolidation before a push higher?

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri

For me Gold is at an interesting stage, the upswings look corrective against the impulsive downswings... am standing aside for the moment until it resolves itself, for me anyways.   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Temjin

Boyou said:


> "Yeah, love it. Been waiting for this dip for a long while."
> 
> Can you elaborate on this stement? Just curious to know if you see the dip as a buying op..or you have philosophical reasons for being glad.
> 
> 
> Cheers Ya'll




As Mr bean said.

A lot of analysts are predicting it will hit back the May 2006 level ($725-735?) before going back to full speed up again. So I am waiting patiently.

It's only for my parents (and a bit myself) long term portfolio, so obviously want to get in at weak prices and hold for long.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> As Mr bean said.
> 
> A lot of analysts are predicting it will hit back the May 2006 level ($725-735?) before going back to full speed up again. So I am waiting patiently.
> 
> It's only for my parents (and a bit myself) long term portfolio, so obviously want to get in at weak prices and hold for long.





If you have followed, read and understood the article at the end of the link provided by Bushman this morning, the answer you seek should be fairly obvious.  After holding support at US$750 last night I am not banking on much, if any further weakeness from here.  But I have been wrong before.

I decided to fully load today with a purchase of Avoca.  AVO


----------



## bean

Temjin said:


> As Mr bean said.
> 
> A lot of analysts are predicting it will hit back the May 2006 level ($725-735?) before going back to full speed up again. So I am waiting patiently.
> 
> It's only for my parents (and a bit myself) long term portfolio, so obviously want to get in at weak prices and hold for long.




May 2006 level is a lot lower.  However there is the possibility of $730 in the next couple of days.
One thing which is important to remember when buying gold is what is the Australian $ doing.
POG may drop US$20 but in AUD may be the same price or so close.  Generally when POG is dropping so is the AUD.  This last rise in US$ terms has been less in AUD terms as our $ has got stronger.

At the moment we may be going to get a rally is US$ which may put pressure on the POG?

And the counter trend rally in US markets may be over in a few days  which may put pressure on gold stocks and POG.

WW111 is the dark horse in the equation and timing

Was the low in August the bottom and start of the next leg up in gold?  The next up was always going to leave many gold bulls at the station.  So each pullback I am looking as to how the POG is acting to support.
The US gold indexs getting conflicting results on the depth of the short term? pullback 2-10%??

I buy silver per Kilo I have an average price of AUD 280.  My last purchase September 2005.
If one buys physical gold then maybe one should also look at buying the poor mans gold…silver


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> If you have followed, read and understood the article at the end of the link provided by Bushman this morning, the answer you seek should be fairly obvious.  After holding support at US$750 last night I am not banking on much, if any further weakeness from here.  But I have been wrong before.
> 
> I decided to fully load today with a purchase of Avoca.  AVO




Lol I SUBSCRIBE to Casey Research gold watch.  I knew I read that article somewhere before, cos the opinions were so familar. 

I am definitely banking on further weakness, based on independent analysts and on technical analysis. That's why I've been holding back for a while now.


----------



## So_Cynical

LOL @ u Guys

Gold goes back to support and its all doom and gloom 

this time next week we will be back testing new 28 year highs.:


----------



## Bushman

bean said:


> I buy silver per Kilo I have an average price of AUD 280.  My last purchase September 2005.
> If one buys physical gold then maybe one should also look at buying the poor mans gold…silver




What broker do you use to buy gold & silver?


----------



## CanOz

So_Cynical said:


> LOL @ u Guys
> 
> Gold goes back to support and its all doom and gloom
> 
> this time next week we will be back testing new 28 year highs.:




Speaking of Doom and Gloom, check out Faber...i think he's brilliant, no one explains this Sh** better than him.

http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3


Cheers,


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:


> Speaking of Doom and Gloom, check out Faber...i think he's brilliant, no one explains this Sh** better than him.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3
> 
> Cheers,



Can't find Faber through that link CanOz.


----------



## Whiskers

kennas said:


> Can't find Faber through that link CanOz.




Hi kennas

I punched faber into search and came up with this.
http://search.bloomberg.com/search?...wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&submit.x=13&submit.y=7

I'm down to the 'like a bartender' one. Sounds like it might be the one.


----------



## SevenFX

Whiskers said:


> Hi kennas
> 
> I punched faber into search and came up with this.
> http://search.bloomberg.com/search?...wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&submit.x=13&submit.y=7
> 
> I'm down to the 'like a bartender' one. Sounds like it might be the one.




Or if your looking for the *Video* links for *Marc Faber* check out below
http://search.bloomberg.com/search?...F-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1


----------



## CanOz

Thanks guys, sorry, it was late when i finished watching it and i didn't check the link....my bad...

In any case it was the latest interview on Bloom with him, for anyone that does not under stand what the heck is going on the global economies i resckon you can't go past it!

Cheers,


----------



## Whiskers

Gold is makeing another nice little run into $770 territory on our opening again. 

Is the so called PPT going to kill it again?


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Gold is makeing another nice little run into $770 territory on our opening again.
> 
> Is the so called PPT going to kill it again?




The PPT are usually at it at this time of the day.   Very bullish as US$770 was establishing as resistance.   The dark clouds circling Iran is probably the key driver.   Dont' be surprised at a sudden leap towards $800 some time soon.


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> The PPT are usually at it at this time of the day.   Very bullish as US$770 was establishing as resistance.   The dark clouds circling Iran is probably the key driver.   Dont' be surprised at a sudden leap towards $800 some time soon.




Silver seems to be testing $14. Gold still hanging in there over $770. Given some are suggesting silver movement is probably a leading indicator for gold, is it conceivable that a sustained break through $14 for silver could unleash gold?


----------



## Whiskers

Hey, where all you guys today? 

Silver through $14! Is this omonius for gold tonight?


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Hey, where all you guys today?
> 
> Silver through $14! Is this omonius for gold tonight?



]

Well Whiskers we have a breach of $14 silver now and gold has gone to $775.50.    Cant' get into Westpac yet though.  Perhaps when gold hits $10g- I wont be able to sell me gold stocks.


----------



## CATAPILLAR

SevenFX said:


> Or if your looking for the *Video* links for *Marc Faber* check out below
> http://search.bloomberg.com/search?...F-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1




SevenFX, this is completely out of left field. Do you still have your APG - Austpac shares.

Cheers Catapillar


----------



## Sean K

Goldies should be up on Monday perhaps.... 

The XAU actually broke through 180 and held above on this chart, so another breakthrough. RSI is not demanding but MACD just starting to fall. Could keep going for a little bit, but we need some consolidation soon for the gains to be healthy.


----------



## explod

We now have thrown off the shackles and have lift-off.  The general investment community will now turn attention towards gold and because the size of that is many times more than in 1980 as well as gold production being down all you patient gold followers will be rewarded.

Have a good weekend.


----------



## Whiskers

Looks promising alright. For the proposition that gold is shadowing silver, it closed well over $14 and held also.

How do the stockastics look on the XAU, kennas?


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> Looks promising alright. For the proposition that gold is shadowing silver, it closed well over $14 and held also.
> 
> How do the stockastics look on the XAU, kennas?



They look to be falling over. However, I have found that stochastic can stay higher for londer and need to be combined with other indicators including basic S&R to get the entire picture. 

Overall, I'm expecting a jump and then some consolidation. On the XAU perhaps back to 160-170....

Still, I'm with bean on the overall scenario of a market correction that will take stocks down with it before more significant gains in gold stocks. If it is a large correction there may be a chance of 150-160. So, depends on what sort of overall correction we have.


----------



## Whiskers

kennas said:


> They look to be falling over.




Yeah, I just realised I could get it on Big Charts. Even the daily is pretty full and it's pushing the top of the bollenger band also.



> However, I have found that stochastic can stay higher for londer and need to be combined with other indicators including basic S&R to get the entire picture.
> 
> Overall, I'm expecting a jump and then some consolidation. On the XAU perhaps back to 160-170....
> 
> Still, I'm with bean on the overall scenario of a market correction that will take stocks down with it before more significant gains in gold stocks. If it is a large correction there may be a chance of 150-160. So, depends on what sort of overall correction we have.




Thanks kennas.


----------



## chops_a_must

Looks like we've got another pop in the gold price across all currencies. Could be ahead of tomorrow night's decision perhaps. But by my guesstimate, this is perhaps going to be the last run we see, if we see it, for a while.


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> Looks like we've got another pop in the gold price across all currencies. Could be ahead of tomorrow night's decision perhaps. But by my guesstimate, this is perhaps going to be the last run we see, if we see it, for a while.




I presume you mean the fed interest rate decision, chops.
Is that tomorrow night or the night after?

I'm inclined to think the fed's decision is pretty well factored in... unless they pull something out of the blue.

My interest is on the Consumer Sentiment number which I think is tomorrow night and what effect that will have on the fed.


----------



## Whiskers

Good call kennas! 

Gold looks like it has peaked for now. Failing to hold above $785. 

Where to now?

I'm tipping the fed won't cut rates again, just yet. But in the total scheme of things, what will this mean for POG?


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Good call kennas!
> 
> Gold looks like it has peaked for now. Failing to hold above $785.
> 
> Where to now?
> 
> I'm tipping the fed won't cut rates again, just yet. But in the total scheme of things, what will this mean for POG?




If the fed dont' cut then the dollar will rally and gold will drop down as it has been all day.  Felt that the Dow and NYSE overnight look to be about to tip over too which will put further pressure on gold in the short term.  I took profits on 70% of holdings today as something is just not right.  The FTSE and Nikkei not looking right IMHO either.   We will see what pans out.   

This might be the correction that Bean has been tipping the last 3 weeks or so.


----------



## GreatPig

Has this now formed a diamond reversal? Similar outline to the one in early September.

And maybe a double top to boot?

GP


----------



## Kauri

Having missed most of this run, only having joined in on the daily triangle, am now tightening up as she is now at what I consider to be the normal area for a W5... 
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## bean

unfortuanatly can't write to much, as subscribe to a site in US (not gold).
So am in and out of market each day.
And what I said before may be influenced now.
However knowing what US markets may drop too (i have bottom figures to look for). I am long POG no stock but 'gold' and Oil may be very short term however Ben has definetly tried his hardest to save the banks/financial institutions.  a couple of sites have mentioned owing physical gold in US and even that they fear.
Why because they expect banks and financial institutions to crumble.
And the government to eventually confiscate physical gold.
Inflation well ask them the ones on the chat lines.
Gold stock in the US - beware  the POG is rising however the price extracting gold is rising.  NEM for example gold rose US $70 per oz there cost rose about US $70 per oz.
In Australia our $ is not helping the cause for Australian gold stocks.
Everyone wants the US$ to tank but do we (Australian) gold bulls.

As far as POG dropping to US$550 yes from a different site someone mentioned gold being hit for 50% but the price at that time would be US$1050


----------



## Kauri

bean said:


> However knowing what US markets may drop too (i have bottom figures to look for). *I am long POG* no stock but 'gold' and Oil may be very short term however Ben has definetly tried his hardest to save the banks/financial institutions. a couple of sites have mentioned owing physical gold in US and even that they fear.




  Good timing Been..   
Cheers
........Kauri



> Nov. 1. A slide in gold this morning is adding to the reasons that the currency is under pressure this morning though the primary catalyst remains the Citi downgrade and write-down rumors that has Citi stock down over 4% in pre-market opening trading. The gold price is down to $788.30 this morning from highs above $796.00 overnight. Analysts are also closely watching the Baltic Dry Index which reflects commodity demand and had the largest one day loss for the year yesterday, down 230 pts to 10,656 after reaching record highs in the last week, and may bode for a broader commodity correction.


----------



## Whiskers

An interesting read, to say the least.

POG just keeps coming back from the low 780's to the 795's.



> The COT's are Running!
> 
> By Peter Degraaf
> Oct 26 2007 4:39PM
> 
> Margin calls hurt, but when margin calls run into the millions of dollars, they really hurt!
> 
> The commercial traders have been shorting gold since the market last dipped, with gold at 660.00.  Imagine covering margin calls when the price has run 15% against you!
> 
> The problem with short selling during a bull market, is that no matter how many times it works, there comes that one time when your timing is wrong. If you can be wise enough to cut your losses quickly, (very few do so), you may live to trade again.
> 
> The market action we are watching now reminds me of the trading we saw in the late 1960’s. The central banks of the London Gold Pool were desperately trying to hold the gold price down at 35.20/oz. To allow it to rise would be detrimental to the confidence level of western currencies in general, and the US dollar in particular. People might realize that money was being inflated.
> 
> Most of the gold at that time was being supplied by participating countries, to the gold users via the London Gold Market. Normal turnover was about 5 tonnes per day. Suddenly volume began to increase to 20, 30 and 50 tonnes per day. During most of 1967, the London Gold Market officials kept having to sell gold faster than they could replace it with freshly mined gold from South Africa and Ghana. In 1968 US central bank officials re-affirmed their commitment to hold the gold price to 35.20 – “down to the last ounce!” Gold was being flown in from the US to London, to help meet the demand.
> 
> On Friday March 8th 1968, 100 tonnes were gobbled up, almost 20 times the normal volume. By the middle of the following week the demand rose to 175 tonnes, then on Thursday the total rose to 225 tonnes.
> 
> On Friday March 15th 1968, Queen Elizabeth, after a meeting at Buckingham Palace the evening before, declared a ‘bank holiday’.
> 
> The London gold market was officially closed for two weeks, and when it re-opened 2 weeks later, we were introduced to ‘two-tier’ gold prices. One for banks, and one for the private sector.
> 
> Once the banks threw in the towel, gold rose to 850.00 in February of 1980. A rise of almost 2400%.   It took Paul Volcker and interest rates of over 20% to finally halt the price rise.
> 
> The situation today has a lot of similarities to the scenario of the 1960’s. Thanks to Frank Veneroso and Gata (www.gata.org), we know that the banks are trying to play the same game again. Anyone who ‘shorts’ gold at this time is counting on the banks to be more successful than they were in March of 1968.
> 
> I am well aware of the fact that the commercial short position is currently larger than ever, but if you turn that around, it means that every one of these contracts will have to be covered!
> 
> And the day will come when they burn there fingers!  Is this the time? That is the 64$ question.
> 
> As for me and my subscribers, WE’RE ALL LONG!
> 
> For you chart lovers, feast on these charts.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/Degraaf/oct262007.html


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> An interesting read, to say the least.
> 
> POG just keeps coming back from the low 780's to the 795's.




Yes a very good article and the charts say it all.    Now what about this the last few minutes.  If we end the week here we may have a thrust at the all time touchdown in the next week or so.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Yes a very good article and the charts say it all.    Now what about this the last few minutes.  If we end the week here we may have a thrust at the all time touchdown in the next week or so.



Futures cracking $800. DOW looks to be recovering after the better than expected jobs data, although it's only midday. Oil up, USD another low. Might be enough for gold stocks to push further ahead on Monday.  

Still waiting for $540 beanster?


----------



## Damuzzdu

kennas said:


> Futures cracking $800. DOW looks to be recovering after the better than expected jobs data, although it's only midday. Oil up, USD another low. Might be enough for gold stocks to push further ahead on Monday.
> 
> Still waiting for $540 beanster?




Spot Gold closes at $806.

Nymex futures contract closed at $808.50

Aussie Gold shares on monday should have another surge, likes of NCM, LGL, DOM.

Cheers


----------



## explod

Damuzzdu said:


> Spot Gold closes at $806.
> 
> Nymex futures contract closed at $808.50
> 
> Aussie Gold shares on monday should have another surge, likes of NCM, LGL, DOM.
> 
> Cheers




Probably the more significant development for bullion overall last night was the weekly close of silver now at a 26 year high.  We will now enter what is know as stage two of the prescious metals bull, where the general investment community begin to take it on board.   This investment community is 100s of times larger than in 1980 and the metals production and availability is less also.  

We are now poised for very interesting times indeed.

Oh.................. and stage three is when the taxi driver tells you to buy, which will be the sell signal.   I will keep you posted on that (on my way back from the casino)


----------



## rederob

> *1st-March-2006, 08:59 AM
> ducati916
> Re: GOLD Where is it heading? *
> ________________________________________
> *rederob *
> 
> 
> 
> At least we got an answer, so waiting another 5 years won't be too hard now!
> Of course, what will ducati do if if gold reaches beyond $770 this year, or next (and I firmly believe it will be "next" year into the $800s)?
> No doubt he will revise his figures - but that's just speculation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And as is the want with speculators, they are wrong, as often as they are right. You are wrong. The figures are there, and I have no intention of changing them nor defending them. You see they are a speculative range, and as a speculative range they are as likely to be wrong as right.
> 
> If you are right in this case, and they do reach $800+ in whatever timeframe, then you will increase your profits and can claim to be a genius.
Click to expand...


I undertook to leave this thread until POG hit $800.
Now I’m back.
Some interesting posts in the meantime.


----------



## Nick Radge

Nice rederob.

The article above regarding the margin call on the Commercials is slightly inaccurate. Commercials can sell until the cows come home and gold travels to $1500 or how ever higher. They are not 'naked' short gold. They are 'forward' selling the stuff, in other words they already 'own' it and they're selling it because they believe its a damn good price here to be selling it. This is normally taken as a sign that prices have risen too far, but it doesn't necessarily mean the Commercials are correct.

What one should be aware off is that the other side to the Commercials trades are large speculators, specifically the large CTA funds that follow trends. When they decide to exit there will be a sizable, if not brief, selloff. We've seen this in more recent times so we should expect more of it in the future. (PS: this same thing happens with all commodities - not just gold).

Regards
Nick


----------



## explod

Nick Radge said:


> Nice rederob.
> 
> The article above regarding the margin call on the Commercials is slightly inaccurate. Commercials can sell until the cows come home and gold travels to $1500 or how ever higher. They are not 'naked' short gold. They are 'forward' selling the stuff, in other words they already 'own' it and they're selling it because they believe its a damn good price here to be selling it. This is normally taken as a sign that prices have risen too far, but it doesn't necessarily mean the Commercials are correct.
> 
> 
> 
> What one should be aware off is that the other side to the Commercials trades are large speculators, specifically the large CTA funds that follow trends. When they decide to exit there will be a sizable, if not brief, selloff. We've seen this in more recent times so we should expect more of it in the future. (PS: this same thing happens with all commodities - not just gold).
> 
> Regards
> Nick





Michael Covel in his text "Trend Following" Prentice Hall 2002, explains that the large investment funds stay with the trends whilst they last, sometimes for many years.   The uptrend in gold from 2001 is firmly intact with the support line at US$640.    A correction for a down trend needs to go 5% below that line on the weekly chart for such a confirmation.

I think at this time the bulls have it.


----------



## rederob

Nick
I only trade equities, so the niceties of futures are left to active traders.
Nevertheless, the themes of accumulation and distribution are important across the board.
So when a long term price trend is supported by other fundamental price drivers - in the case of gold it's the oil price and USD values - through a robust period of consolidation, we should expect a new high price of significant magnitude above the former.
Accordingly, we should be looking for this run to peak around $900.
Could we get continuation to $1000 without a major retrace?
I doubt it for now.
Unless a US-led recession shoots gold to a 1980-like parabolic spike that collapses equally as quickly on itself.
What I will be looking for is a possible disconnect of POG to the USD, and a tied bond to POO, instead.  Should this happen the likelihood of more protracted and less volatile price rises could continue - well over  $1000.
For equity traders the usual question is "is it too late to get on"? 
Like any trading or investing question, the answer should depend on your trading style and strategies.
I have personally traded KCN and LGL a few times over the past 5 years, but never sold EQI or DIO.  And I originally bought into OXR for its gold exposure and have never sold any of its shares since.
I expect Lihir will be the most profitable of my goldies because there are very few cheaper producers that will match over the long a term.  Now that LGL is unhedged, its upside will be significantly greater than previously.

As for ducati on gold, yet again his incredibly expansive missives purporting as analysis, are shot to pieces.  It is one thing to claim good luck based on "speculation".  It is quite another to foresee the more likely impact of key price drivers and weave these into this thread, so that others may profit.


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> I expect Lihir will be the most profitable of my goldies because there are very few cheaper producers that will match over the long a term.  Now that LGL is unhedged, its upside will be significantly greater than previously.



Still has major country one mine risk and Ballarat is an unknown. But, if the locals stay at work and Ballarat comes in on sched, then I agree.


----------



## rederob

kennas said:


> Still has major country one mine risk and Ballarat is an unknown. But, if the locals stay at work and Ballarat comes in on sched, then I agree.



Kennas
It's an issue.
But then there is the Grasberg mine in West Irian which has a host of more significant risks, and major cost issues (especially if environmental issues ever come to the fore).
Even the Telfer mine has major issues, but more through geology and ore composition (high arsenic levels), apart from energy costs.
I have spread my gold risks through 6 different equities - EQI has significant political risk as it moves to mine Bonikro in Africa, and others have probably less risks attached.
But while POG is climbing significantly faster than AUD increases over USD, there will be big profits in the offing.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> Kennas
> It's an issue.
> But then there is the Grasberg mine in West Irian which has a host of more significant risks, and major cost issues (especially if environmental issues ever come to the fore).
> Even the Telfer mine has major issues, but more through geology and ore composition (high arsenic levels), apart from energy costs.
> I have spread my gold risks through 6 different equities - EQI has significant political risk as it moves to mine Bonikro in Africa, and others have probably less risks attached.
> But while POG is climbing significantly faster than AUD increases over USD, there will be big profits in the offing.




Why would you look any further than Avoca.  Good company, plenty of good grades near surface.   But with our strong dollar, offshore is the go at the moment, AND and NEM


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Why would you look any further than Avoca.  Good company, plenty of good grades near surface.   But with our strong dollar, offshore is the go at the moment, AND and NEM



Hooly dooly, first time I've looked at AND. Might have missed it?


----------



## nizar

kennas said:


> Hooly dooly, first time I've looked at AND. Might have missed it?




Oh my.
I just pulled up the chart now.
Trend and a half.
Started the year at 30c.

Well done to those that rode it.


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Why would you look any further than Avoca.  Good company, plenty of good grades near surface.   But with our strong dollar, offshore is the go at the moment, AND and NEM



Plenty of good goldies around at moment.
My preference is always to have a low cost, long life producer in the stable - LGL is a good fit.  Should gold prices hold above $800 then we will see LGL putting about $500 profit per ounce in the bank for each of its million or so ounces each year, going forward
I like EQI because apart from its growth upside, it has given me regular dividends.
But as I said, there are plenty of others around that can give excellent returns.
I'm not likely to alter my present holdings though, because my entry prices mean I have already gained good upside, and the present rush to gold will amplify that further.
Go the mighty precious yellow metal!


----------



## michael_selway

nizar said:


> Oh my.
> I just pulled up the chart now.
> Trend and a half.
> Started the year at 30c.
> 
> Well done to those that rode it.




Charts not bad, but looks liek it wont be profitable for soem time yet!

*AND - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -1.6 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway

rederob said:


> Nick
> I only trade equities, so the niceties of futures are left to active traders.
> Nevertheless, the themes of accumulation and distribution are important across the board.
> So when a long term price trend is supported by other fundamental price drivers - in the case of gold it's the oil price and USD values - through a robust period of consolidation, we should expect a new high price of significant magnitude above the former.
> Accordingly, we should be looking for this run to peak around $900.
> Could we get continuation to $1000 without a major retrace?
> I doubt it for now.
> Unless a US-led recession shoots gold to a 1980-like parabolic spike that collapses equally as quickly on itself.
> What I will be looking for is a possible disconnect of POG to the USD, and a tied bond to POO, instead.  Should this happen the likelihood of more protracted and less volatile price rises could continue - well over  $1000.
> For equity traders the usual question is "is it too late to get on"?
> Like any trading or investing question, the answer should depend on your trading style and strategies.
> I have personally traded KCN and LGL a few times over the past 5 years, but never sold EQI or DIO.  And I originally bought into OXR for its gold exposure and have never sold any of its shares since.
> I expect Lihir will be the most profitable of my goldies because there are very few cheaper producers that will match over the long a term.  Now that LGL is unhedged, its upside will be significantly greater than previously.
> 
> As for ducati on gold, yet again his incredibly expansive missives purporting as analysis, are shot to pieces.  It is one thing to claim good luck based on "speculation".  It is quite another to foresee the more likely impact of key price drivers and weave these into this thread, so that others may profit.





Hey RED, KCN looks good value at current prices (mine life is ok as well at 15+ yrs), but does it have production problems or other risks u see atm?

*KCN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -22.2 24.0 49.6 57.9 
DPS 0.0 14.5 22.5 34.5 *

Also do you know what the mine life of EQI is?

*EQI - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 12.8 9.3 29.6 30.6 
DPS 7.0 6.5 8.5 7.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## nizar

michael_selway said:


> Charts not bad, but looks liek it wont be profitable for soem time yet!
> 
> *AND - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS -1.6 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0
> DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




True, but if I rode that trend for some time, I would be pretty profitable!

Which one is more important, the profitability of the trader, or that of the company? Think about it


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:


> But while POG is climbing significantly faster than AUD increases over USD, there will be big profits in the offing.




I think that's the important point. We look to have finally had a major breach of resistance on the AUD gold price. And I'm assuming then that it would be similar across all currencies right now. Which really, is a pretty key buying signal IMO.


----------



## Whiskers

Nick Radge said:


> Nice rederob.
> 
> The article above regarding the margin call on the Commercials is slightly inaccurate. Commercials can sell until the cows come home and gold travels to $1500 or how ever higher. They are not 'naked' short gold. They are 'forward' selling the stuff, in other words they already 'own' it and they're selling it because they believe its a damn good price here to be selling it. This is normally taken as a sign that prices have risen too far, but it doesn't necessarily mean the Commercials are correct.
> 
> What one should be aware off is that the other side to the Commercials trades are large speculators, specifically the large CTA funds that follow trends. When they decide to exit there will be a sizable, if not brief, selloff. We've seen this in more recent times so we should expect more of it in the future. (PS: this same thing happens with all commodities - not just gold).
> 
> Regards
> Nick




Hi Nick

I take your point, but this is only a short term cyclical influence, isn't it? 

It seems to me that longer term the POG or more particularly the supply of gold is going to be a significant factor in determining particularly US economic activity for the forseable future. 

In short, with the collapse of the US property market the so called CDO's or junk paper trade, often initially AAA rated assets, accounts for a very significant part of all corporate debt. Invester confidence has been severely jolted by this trade in junk paper and investment banks are still left holding billions of dollars worth. 

I guess it is fair to say that there is now a breech of trust not only by investers, but by central banks, of the investment banks and tension between the central banks and investment banks, after all it appears to be the greed of the investment banks that brought things undone.

Since central banks have been selling gold to surpress the price and give credability to the new asset-backed credit system, and the investment banks have severely undermined that credability, I would imagine the central banks are looking to literally tan the hides of these investment bankers.

The big question I am wondering is whether that confidence can be restored in the long run and whether the central banks have enough gold left to stop the POG from blowing out.

And since it appears from some reports that Russia and maybe China has actually been accumulating gold, are they going to be the new economic powerhouses. If that happens will currencies inevetably become backed by gold again?

Endless comentators are predicting the POG to increase significantly, but what will eventually cause the POG to retrace significantly or bust? Over production doesn't seem capable any time soon. Or will an inevetable tightening of credit laws and credit availability to protect the value of the $US become the ultimate undoing of the credit-based assets reserve system.

I'm trying to play the devils advocate to find flaws in the medium to long term escalating POG argument, but there doesn't seem to be any, is there?


----------



## Nick Radge

I'm not making a statement that gold will fall. Please read what I have said carefully. I have simply made a statement - and one that I know is completely true as I ran my own CTA trend following fund till 2001. I did not say that Gold was going to fall. I said that _*should*_ the large speculators decide to cut their long positions there will be an aggressive selloff. I did _*not*_ say that it would end the gold bull. These trend following CTA's will ride the trends up and down. If the market trends up, they will follow along. If it trends down, they will follow along. 



> The uptrend in gold from 2001 is firmly intact with the support line at US$640. A correction for a down trend needs to go 5% below that line on the weekly chart for such a confirmation.



Let me just say, and I can only speak from an insiders position so I may well be wrong, but you need to understand that there are many, many funds of different types and styles. Yes, the macro funds such as Covel has stated, will be riding a 20-year view on Gold and will most likely hold on through thick and thin. But there are many other funds that have very large positions and do not attempt to ride these macro trends. They ride the smaller trends such as the one we're on now after the September breakout. These particular funds hold large enough positions to generate extreme volatility when they exit. All I'm saying is be aware of that fact.

That's all I'm pointing out. Nothing more. Nothing less. I am long gold and resource stocks and will continue to add/remove positions as my systems tell me. If trends persist my system will allow me to ride them. If the trends reverse, my system will tell me to get out. 

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## explod

Yep, apologies Nick.    Problem I have sometimes is timeframe with my simplistic view of things.   Not having the exprience of you and many othersI can only run by the big picture.  Your input is valued.  Thank you.

Also grab the bull by the horns.


----------



## Nick Radge

hey, we're all here to learn. Here is an example of what I am talking about. This is my trend following system on the streetTRACKS Gold ETF. You can see an entry back in July 2005. Take a look where it exited and then notice what happened immediately *after* it exited. That's what I'm talking about. 

Notice then that the system sat on the sidelines till February 07 before entering long again.


----------



## nizar

Nick Radge said:


> hey, we're all here to learn. Here is an example of what I am talking about. This is my trend following system on the streetTRACKS Gold ETF. You can see an entry back in July 2005. Take a look where it exited and then notice what happened immediately *after* it exited. That's what I'm talking about.
> 
> Notice then that the system sat on the sidelines till February 07 before entering long again.




Nick I can see your profit stop pretty much got you out of the trade at the very top of the move.

Very impressive I must say.


----------



## rederob

just curious...
where's bean been?
is he now a has bean?
or has bean been curious to where gold's been?
me?
i been bean counting
has bean?
has he been?
just curious.....

by the way, my bean counting puts gold over $1000 by March 2009, in case ducati was wondering


----------



## nizar

rederob said:


> by the way, my bean counting puts gold over $1000 by March 2009, in case ducati was wondering




Thats ages, i wonder if i'll still be alive by that time lol.


----------



## bean

rederob said:


> just curious...
> where's bean been?
> is he now a has bean?
> or has bean been curious to where gold's been?
> me?
> i been bean counting
> has bean?
> has he been?
> just curious.....
> 
> by the way, my bean counting puts gold over $1000 by March 2009, in case ducati was wondering




POG - I am in riding but with caution.  Take each few days at a time.  Last week in the US was still a warning to show if the markets drop POG and Gold stocks may drop with the market as people put money in bonds and cash - US$ had a bit of traction but to "much oil"
POS - still way behind POG in the move however did stay above US$ 14 last week so maybe POS may be ready to join as well.

The thing to remember is the POG is rising but so is mining costs.  Some of the larger US miners what gold has increase in price per oz in the move so has there costs by the same per oz.


----------



## rederob

bean said:


> The thing to remember is the POG is rising but so is mining costs.  Some of the larger US miners what gold has increase in price per oz in the move so has there costs by the same per oz.



Can you please translate that into English.
In anticipation...


----------



## explod

bean said:


> POG - I am in riding but with caution.  Take each few days at a time.  Last week in the US was still a warning to show if the markets drop POG and Gold stocks may drop with the market as people put money in bonds and cash - US$ had a bit of traction but to "much oil"
> POS - still way behind POG in the move however did stay above US$ 14 last week so maybe POS may be ready to join as well.
> 
> The thing to remember is the POG is rising but so is mining costs.  Some of the larger US miners what gold has increase in price per oz in the move so has there costs by the same per oz.




Gold price has begun to de-couple from the Share Market.   Since May the Dow is at exactly the same level, in fact a couple of points down.  For the same period gold is up 20%.   On a day to day basis gold has moved a bit with the market but this effect is becoming less as more of the general investment community are taking notice of gold.

Cash and bonds are now being seen as risky so that haven now is also being viewed sceptically.  Underlying inflation is now being appeciated, high, oil a big contributer now.

Silver as you suspect is rising on that chart at a greater rate than gold and is now near a new 27 year high.  Once this resitance is broken I fully expect it to lead again and go back towards a ratio of 25 or 30 to 1.

I think Bean you have to let go and fly with us.  Glad to see you have loaded up again as well.


----------



## BHP

Hi All,

Some great posts in this thread, thanks to all the contributors. 

I am an inexperienced investor and was hoping someone could help me out here.

I am a little weary about investing in gold miners for two reasons:

a) I don't know enough to value them so don't know which one/ones to buy into.

b) There are risks that while the gold price goes up so does the cost of production (Oil, labour rates, machinery etc) so the profit may not be so great. An example is wheat, it's gone through the roof but you wouldn't want to be invested in an aussie wheat farmer, you would rather own the wheat itself.


For the same reason it seems better to me to invest in gold itself through something like Gold Bullion Securities Limited (ASX Code: GOLD) but the problem is its unhedged. Gold's latest run is mainly based on the devaluing $US so investing unhedged hasn't done very well.

If you look at the price of gold in $US terms its increased about 25% since the start of the year but in $AU terms its only increased about 8%. Even if you bought now if the aussie dollar hits parity gold will need to be over US $870 before you are in profit.

Now I know i could hedge myself but thats too complicated for someone green like me, I am just looking at buying something through my Commsec account.

So my question is, Is there a (simple) way to invest in gold in $AU that is hedged against the $US?


----------



## So_Cynical

BHP said:


> So my question is, Is there a (simple) way to invest in gold in $AU that is hedged against the $US?




This mite fill your requirements.........ASX GOLD CFD

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/cfds/pdf/cfd_product_launch_phases.pdf

And Commsec is broking ASX CFD's


----------



## BHP

So_Cynical said:


> This mite fill your requirements.........ASX GOLD CFD
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/investor/cfds/pdf/cfd_product_launch_phases.pdf




Thanks SC, I checked it out but this too is unhedged.
See http://www.asx.com.au/investor/cfds/pdf/contract_specifications_commodity_cfds.pdf

6.1 Contract Specification for ASX GOLD CFD
*Contract Currency USD*


----------



## explod

BHP said:


> Thanks SC, I checked it out but this too is unhedged.
> See http://www.asx.com.au/investor/cfds/pdf/contract_specifications_commodity_cfds.pdf
> 
> 6.1 Contract Specification for ASX GOLD CFD
> *Contract Currency USD*



]
Hedging overall is a zero based outcome. A bit like betting heads and tails at the same time.   At the end of the day you have to speculate to accumulate.   Best trick is to find the best stock or investment you are comfortable with and as soon as you feel it is going against you you must get out.  If you are not comfortable with any of that you need to stay out of the fray till you are.


----------



## professor_frink

BHP said:


> Thanks SC, I checked it out but this too is unhedged.
> See http://www.asx.com.au/investor/cfds/pdf/contract_specifications_commodity_cfds.pdf
> 
> 6.1 Contract Specification for ASX GOLD CFD
> *Contract Currency USD*




If it's leveraged, you should be able to do alright out of it. Have a look at this post made by Wayne a little while ago-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=204614&postcount=1925


----------



## BHP

Explod,

Thanks, and I will (have) take your advice and stay out of the fray till I learn a bit more, especially now the markets are a bit turbulent.

Prof,

Thanks very much for the link, it answers my question. Makes a lot of sense however I have absolutely no idea about futures contracts so will read up on but will give it a miss.  I will also try and work out if the same principle applies to CFD's.


----------



## bean

explod said:


> Gold price has begun to de-couple from the Share Market.   Since May the Dow is at exactly the same level, in fact a couple of points down.  For the same period gold is up 20%.   On a day to day basis gold has moved a bit with the market but this effect is becoming less as more of the general investment community are taking notice of gold.
> 
> Cash and bonds are now being seen as risky so that haven now is also being viewed sceptically.  Underlying inflation is now being appeciated, high, oil a big contributer now.
> 
> Silver as you suspect is rising on that chart at a greater rate than gold and is now near a new 27 year high.  Once this resitance is broken I fully expect it to lead again and go back towards a ratio of 25 or 30 to 1.




US gold Shares are still moving in line with the general market on most days however every now and then the fall may be not as great as it once would have been.  Gold is becoming more of a safe haven.

POS :70:
Catch up move is on the cards the action of the last few day has been very suportive  Stayed above the US$14.50


----------



## cuttlefish

BHP

I don't know anything about hedging techniques, but a simple way of hedging would be to use borrowed $USD to buy physical gold.  If gold price goes up in $USD you will be ahead.  Interest is the cost of the hedge (but interest to some extent is a cost you bear in buying physical gold anyway because you have to use interest bearing funds to buy non-returning gold).

I'm sure one of the derivatives experts would be able to give a derivative based equivalent of the above (because I suspect the equivalent to the above is basically what you're looking for - though you'd probably want an interest rate hedge in there as well).


----------



## Temjin

cuttlefish said:


> BHP
> 
> I don't know anything about hedging techniques, but a simple way of hedging would be to use borrowed $USD to buy physical gold. If gold price goes up in $USD you will be ahead. Interest is the cost of the hedge (but interest to some extent is a cost you bear in buying physical gold anyway because you have to use interest bearing funds to buy non-returning gold).
> 
> I'm sure one of the derivatives experts would be able to give a derivative based equivalent of the above (because I suspect the equivalent to the above is basically what you're looking for - though you'd probably want an interest rate hedge in there as well).




Gold are priced in US dollars.

If you live in Aussie dollars, then you should be buying GOLD in US dollars (after conversion), then borrow the equivalent US dollars for Aussie dollars to hedge against rise/fall of the currency pair movement. 

Remember that the correlation between US dollars and Gold is still pro-dominately negative. If gold rises, US dollars fall. Thus, using Aussie dollars to buy gold without hedging will eat your profit by a lot because the US dollar based assets (gold or gold shares) will fall in value due weakening Us dollars. 

This is of course, a viable strategy until gold start to break away from falling US dollars.


----------



## professor_frink

BHP said:


> Prof,
> 
> Thanks very much for the link, it answers my question. Makes a lot of sense however I have absolutely no idea about futures contracts so will read up on but will give it a miss.  I will also try and work out if the same principle applies to CFD's.




No worries BHP

The Gold CFD mentioned previously is quoted in USD, so if you were to trade gold that way, it should have pretty well the same characteristics as the gold futures example that Wayne talked about earlier.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> US gold Shares are still moving in line with the general market on most days however every now and then the fall may be not as great as it once would have been.  Gold is becoming more of a safe haven.
> 
> POS :70:
> Catch up move is on the cards the action of the last few day has been very suportive  Stayed above the US$14.50



Beanster, do you think POS is the second phase of the PM bull run, and if so, why have you waited when POG has quite obviously run away? Or, have you been hiding your position? If you agree with above, what's the third phase of the PM run and when do you switch back to cash? What's your PM targets? Or, will we still see $540 POG? kennas


----------



## explod

Afternoon Report
Gold spends 2nd day atop $800

The COMEX December gold futures contract closed up $2.30 Monday at $810.80, trading between $803.50 and $814.20.

November 5, p.m. excerpts:
(from Bloomberg) --
Gold closed above $800 an ounce for a second straight session, extending a rally to the highest since 1980, as energy costs rebounded, sparking demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation. Gold has rallied 27 percent this year, heading for the seventh straight annual gain, as crude oil climbed to a record and the dollar fell to the lowest ever against the euro. "Gold is following crude," said Frank McGhee, head metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. "On every break, this market is extremely well-bid. Domestic buying is for inflation. Internationally, you're seeing safe-haven buying." Gold reached a record in January 1980 after energy costs doubled in a year, triggering a surge in the inflation rate and demand for the precious metal. "The fundamental story for gold is going to be oil this week," said Ralph Preston, an analyst at Heritage West Financial Inc. in San Diego. "Everyone is anticipating $100 oil. It's going to fuel this rally."...more
(from Reuters) --
"We have to ask ourselves if the credit problems that we saw this summer had been remedied or not. If they haven't, we could see more bids into gold. If the credit markets are calming, then that will remove a bit (of demand) from gold," said James Steel, metal analyst at HSBC Plc in New York. Steel said that losses in the equity markets of late have often been associated with flight-to-quality buying in gold, and that reflected the precious metal's traditional values as a safe haven. U.S. stocks dropped on Monday as Citigroup Inc's warning of swelling loan losses fanned a sell-off in financial services companies and investors worried about the impact of the credit turmoil on the economy. Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank by total assets, said it could suffer an $11 billion write-down related to subprime mortgage losses. Shares tumbled to 4-1/2 year lows...more
(from MarketWatch) --
Financial turbulence was back in the news Monday ... as renewed turmoil in the credit markets boosted the metal's safe-haven appeal after Citigroup said it will have to write off up to $11 billion more in losses. "Several items of concern are still fueling the flight to gold," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a research note. "One of them [is] the $11 billion in Citigroup write-offs that have resulted in Mr. Prince losing his crown at the mega-bank. First Merrill, now Citi. The [fallen] head count is mounting." On Friday, gold futures rallied $14.80 to finish at $808.50 an ounce on Nymex. "The ailing dollar, near record oil prices and the developing and deepening housing and credit crisis are all supporting the surging gold price," said Mark O'Byrne, director at Gold and Silver Investments Ltd., in a research note. "In the past, the gold market influenced far less directly by external macro-economic factors, would not have made it through the $800 level," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "However, in this new global monetary and macro-economically influenced gold market, gold appears to be holding over the $800 level. If it can hold up above that line, then the path very much higher will be far quicker than the last $100 climb," he said in emailed comments. "The investment qualities of gold as a 'contra' investment are shining brightly, taking it higher and higher."...more


----------



## Gar

I think people need to stop relying so much on the fundamentals of gold, technically its been behaving beautifully


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Beanster, do you think POS is the second phase of the PM bull run, and if so, why have you waited when POG has quite obviously run away? Or, have you been hiding your position? If you agree with above, what's the third phase of the PM run and when do you switch back to cash? What's your PM targets? Or, will we still see $540 POG? kennas



Yes POS always seems to move later than POG in bull runs.
I read that it seems to be when bull runsstart in gold.  POG becomes dear so investers look for alternative which is silver.  POS at that stage explodes being a smaller market doesn't need much money to cause it to move faster.

A good example of a small silver market (silver shares).  Is Australia BHP produces heaps of silver but any rise in POS would have minimal effect on its shares price.
How many true silver miners or silver shares (silver is the main product) are there in Australia.
Not many in fact very few so if silver is joining the party.
Over the last few days I have moved to silver 70% gold 30%

POG say US$900 + (approx 10% from tonight price)
POS would/should be close to US$ 18 (approx 20% from tonights price)

POG rise could slow if US$ made a rally of some sort.

US$540 could happen if a financial storm hit world markets.


----------



## Temjin

Holy S--t, the gold has spiked up in the last 12 hours to USD $820 now. 

Silver has just reached $15.00 (at least on my screen) and is extremely close to a full break out from previous high of $15.23.

Go my gold and silver ETFs!


----------



## So_Cynical

bean said:


> How many true silver miners or silver shares (silver is the main product) are there in Australia.
> Not many in fact very few



I'm not an expert...but i think silver mostly occurs with other metals and in small amounts so its mostly mined as a side/by product.

so its almost imposable to be a pure silver miner.



bean said:


> US$540 could happen if a financial storm hit world markets.



This storm could easy go the other way and be
a positive for gold... assuming the storm is USD related.

Falling gold production and rising demand coupled with a wobbly USD  
don't equal POG $540 USD.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Holy S--t, the gold has spiked up in the last 12 hours to USD $820 now.
> 
> Silver has just reached $15.00 (at least on my screen) and is extremely close to a full break out from previous high of $15.23.
> 
> Go my gold and silver ETFs!




Silver has reverted back to its behaviour of 2004 to 2006 when it led the gold price on a 30% uptick.  The ease of breaking the 2006 high is very bullish indeed for both silver and gold.

O boy,  this is now better times again for me.   Lost a lot of money a few years ago on a bad property investment.  I am now getting my money back.


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> Having missed most of this run, only having joined in on the daily triangle, am now tightening up as she is now at what I consider to be the normal area for a W5...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



Kauri, how much further do you think a W5 can run.

I think Bean was calling a Wave B with this recent run, but I can't see how a B can run so much higher than the starting point. WP gave a number, but I can't find it back in the thread...


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Kauri, how much further do you think a W5 can run.
> 
> I think Bean was calling a Wave B with this recent run, but I can't see how a B can run so much higher than the starting point. WP gave a number, but I can't find it back in the thread...



 Hi Kennas,
              It's just a rough guidline mind you.. but the Miner software has it like this... remembering of course that all projections are* based on my counts which may or may not be accurate*..   
 Well, off for my 5.30am walk to get some fresh seeding grass for the budgies..   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## bigdog

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071106/gold_miners_sector_snap.html?.v=1

Sector Snap: Gold Miners
Tuesday November 6, 1:41 pm ET
*Gold Mining Stocks Gain on Higher Gold Price Amid the Dollar's Continued Weakness*

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of gold miners climbed Tuesday, as the price of gold struck a 27-year high against the backdrop of the dollar's continued weakness.

An ounce of December gold added $14.20 to $825 on the New York Mercantile Exchange in midday trading, rising to its highest level since January 1980.

The price of gold has added about 26 percent since the beginning of the year, and gains accelerated within the last couple months as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice.

Lower interest rates undermine the dollar, which was already on a long-term downward spiral. Further supporting gold prices -- which typically trade inversely to the greenback -- the dollar fell against several major world currencies Tuesday, and touched a new record low against the 13-nation euro.

Meanwhile, oil prices touched an all-time high of $97 a barrel on geopolitical and other concerns. Rising oil prices are considered a signal of inflation, and gold is typically treated as a hedge against climbing prices.

In company-specific news, silver and gold miner Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. gained 55 cents, or 14.3 percent, to $4.39, after a Bear Stearns analyst said the stock is underpriced given strong metals prices.

Other gold mining stocks posted more modest gains.

Barrick Gold Corp. shares rose 87 cents to $46.91 and Newmont Mining Corp. added $1.53, or 2.9 percent, to $53.86.

Goldcorp Inc. shares picked up $1.17, or 3.3 percent, to $36.91. Gold Fields Ltd. shares added 56 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $17.67.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. shares rose $2.09, or 4.9 percent, to $44.95 and Randgold Resources Ltd. shares picked up $1.01, or 2.8 percent, to $37.11.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Spine tingling stuff this .

And we're only 1/3 of the way to the inflation adjusted high of $2400!

How much of this is 'smart' & 'deep' money & how much is spec and 'me too' money? Does it really matter?

What can derail the dream run? A currency play on the $US & interest rates -  despite the hollow rhetoric from the US Fed, it could be envisioned that an effective interest rate of zero (turning Japanese?) is on the cards, and the commensurate effects on the dollar and amplified effects on gold.

Middle eastern oil divesting $US into gold - to accelerate?

Geopolitical - Iran/US chest beating - always present.

Biggest threat is a technical correction aligned with a massive general market correction maybe. How long can the bellwethers of global money shuffling keep announcing billion dollar losses and the market remains at or near a (non inflation adjusted) record high? Is it all a smoke & mirrors show to instill confidence amongst the populace?

Holding the gold bull by the horns now


----------



## numbercruncher

833.40 - Scary stuff!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Paul Van Eeden discusses the case _for_ gold, and _agains_t pretty much everything else, even commodities & China, due to US M3 money supply explosion, & global money supply inflation generally.

http://www.kereport.com/audio/1103-02.mp3
http://www.kereport.com/audio/1103-03.mp3


----------



## explod

With the surge in gold to aroung US$840 tonight it is worth having a look at the historic closing prices going back to 1980.    Yes just $10 more dollars to an all time high closing price.  The ensuing days and weeks ahead will be interesting indeed.   The drop in the dollar this evening would indicate that all is very unwell with largest financial systems.   Problem is there is too much money and not enough tangible backing.

Chart is coutesy "The Privateer" newsletter


----------



## numbercruncher

I keep pushing *refresh* waiting for 900aud to tick over


----------



## michael_selway

explod said:


> With the surge in gold to aroung US$840 tonight it is worth having a look at the historic closing prices going back to 1980.    Yes just $10 more dollars to an all time high closing price.  The ensuing days and weeks ahead will be interesting indeed.   The drop in the dollar this evening would indicate that all is very unwell with largest financial systems.   Problem is there is too much money and not enough tangible backing.
> 
> Chart is coutesy "The Privateer" newsletter




Do you reckon there will be a pull back when it hits the all time nominal high?

thx

MS


----------



## Temjin

Uncle Festivus said:


> Paul Van Eeden discusses the case _for_ gold, and _agains_t pretty much everything else, even commodities & China, due to US M3 money supply explosion, & global money supply inflation generally.
> 
> http://www.kereport.com/audio/1103-02.mp3
> http://www.kereport.com/audio/1103-03.mp3




Just finish hearing it. He didn't really say anything about gold at all.

He just emphasis the same story (which i believe is VERY TRUE as well as number of other independent analyst) that the equity boom we've been having is due to the massive injection of cash/credit and thereby, inflating the prices. 

For those who don't want to bother hearing these, here is a brief summary on his part that he does not agree with popular suggestions that China (as well as world economy) will not be seriously affected by expected US downturn.

- US economy is $13 trillion dollars
- Europe economy is $13 trillion dollars
- China economy is only $2-3 trillion dollars

- Growth in China from 2001 to 2006 is roughly 10% p.a.
- Export per GPA in China accounts for approximately 31% over the same period. 
- Rate of growth in export in China is around 24% over the same period. 
- 24% x 31% = 7.44% of growth in China is attributed from exporting. This leaves only roughly 10% - 7.44% = 2.56% from other sources like domestic growth. 
- Using even more new date, he concluded that China's export now attributes to 8+% out of 10% of their annual growth, this leave even less from their domestic. 
- Concludes that China is EXTREMELY sensitive to export and demand from the rest of the world. US consumers is one of their largest customers as well.
- This automatically translates to less demand on commondities for industrial and construction uses. And probably translates to less demand on Aussie miners as well = bad news for us. 



Ohhh, is the interviewer guy real about his IQ is close to 200? lol


----------



## explod

numbercruncher said:


> I keep pushing *refresh* waiting for 900aud to tick over




Yeh me too, only a dollar sixty to go.  Maybe a good sleep will do the trick.

Brought some gold bars 18 months ago and only just getting back to parity, so it better go a bit higher soon.  Coulda been in BHP and more than doubled it.  Its called dervisification I understand.


----------



## Kauri

A tad early to be drawing any conclusions but is she having "the correction we had to have"??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> A tad early to be drawing any conclusions but is she having "the correction we had to have"??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Well at least now we are due for some consolidation.  The dow falling will certainly have its effects across the board.   The liquidation from shares initially goes into US dollars and this is reflected by the reverse hammer on the daily US dollar index:-


----------



## explod

Gold dropped a bit over the day and we should expect some correction after the big run up of the last couple of weeks.   The last time it was at these levels it peaked up into the US$900s in 1980 to all time record highs.  So here we are, consolidating in record territory.   The next upmove will capture attention of the general investment community.  So if you are thinking of gold investment, it could be a good time to catch the train.

I am not qualified to give advice and I have been wrong many times in the past.

[quote}

Gold settles at record high 
Investors seek safe haven as the dollar falls on a report that China may diversify its exchange reserves, but one analyst sees rally fading.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
November 7 2007: 3:27 PM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gold settled at a record high of $833.50 an ounce in New York trading Wednesday as the dollar's decline and oil's record surge caused inflation-wary investors to seek stability in precious metals. 

The previous high was $825.50, set Jan. 21, 1980, or $2,128.09, adjusted for inflation, according to the Minneapolis Fed Calculator.

Trading in gold offers investors a hedge against stock market volatility because it is a store of value, compared to stocks, which are subject to a variety of unpredictable economic factors. 

The euro hit a fresh record against the dollar, rising to $1.4729 before retreating. The dollar was dragged down by a report that a Chinese political figure said that Beijing should favor the euro, not the dollar, in diversifying its exchange reserves valued at $1.43 trillion.

Meanwhile, oil hit a new intraday record at $98.62 a barrel early Wednesday ahead of the government's weekly inventory report that was expected to show a 1.6-million barrel drop in crude stockpiles. Oil's drive to the $100-a-barrel mark slowed when it turned out that inventories were down slightly less than expected. Still, oil has surged more than 20 percent in the past month.

In addition to the dollar's decline and oil's rally, the ongoing fallout of the credit crisis has investors flocking to the relative safety of gold.


----------



## explod

numbercruncher said:


> I keep pushing *refresh* waiting for 900aud to tick over




Well numbercruncher, your pain has been relieved, in fact have a rest and stop pushing, you have AUD gold at $905 this morning.   I think that's $100 in the last month or so.   May be wrong about any correction, we have tremendous momentum now.


----------



## Kauri

Talk of a few margin calls especially on the US Tech stocks.... I wonder if that may have a flow-on sell-off effect on commodities/gold??
 Mind you at the same time in the opposite vien..


> A few items highlighting geopolitical risk are on the wires, only adding to the market nervousness and choppiness. AFP and ABC news reports that the FBI is warning of potential Al-Qaida attacks on US shopping malls in Los Angeles or Chicago though the threats "may not be credible" and are similar to alerts issued over the last five years, each year at holiday time.
> Also noted are the reports from the UK Times earlier today that the US fears and Israeli strike against Iran after the news this week that Iran has 3,000 working uranium-enriching centrifuges. A further report from AP says that the US has up-to-date attack plans for Iran although no strike appears imminent.



Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

Gold’s Infallible Indicator – Six Months Later 


Exactly six months ago I wrote about an indicator that has predicted with 100% accuracy when the price of gold was about to rise. The entire article can be read here: http://www.kitco.com/commentary/old/Turk/turk_may072007.htm 

Over the years, this indicator has been one of my favorites.  It has been so good that I call it “gold’s infallible indicator”.  True to form, this indicator is still scoring 100%.  

The indicator is very simple.  It is based on articles about gold in The Economist magazine. As I wrote six months ago: “The Economist rarely writes about gold, but when it does, start buying.  It has an uncanny knack for publishing unswervingly bearish articles on gold just before the price heads higher.”  

The last article about gold by The Economist appeared on April 8th, when gold was trading at $674.20. As of yesterday’s close, gold has risen 21.7% so far – I say “so far” for a reason. Gold’s uptrend remains intact, and no one knows when this uptrend will end. So further gains in gold are entirely possible. Here is this indicator’s record.  

Date Article is Published
 Gold Price
On Date of Publication 
 Low Gold Price After Date of Publication
 % Decline to Low Price
After Date of 
Publication
 Subsequent High in the Gold Price
 Date of Subsequent High in the Gold Price
 % Gain from Publication Price to High Price

23 Jan 1993
 $328.60
 $326.30
 0.7%
 $407.00
 30 Jul 1993
 23.9%

11 Sep 2003
 $379.70
 $369.20
 2.8%
 $426.40
 9 Jan 2004
 12.3%

1 Dec 2005
 $502.50
 $493.00
 1.9%
 $719.80
 11 May 2007
 43.2%

8 Apr 2007
 $674.20
 $641.70
 4.8%
 $820.80
(so far)
 6 Nov 2007
(so far)
 21.7%


I happen to believe that The Economist publishes some high quality material.  So why is it always wrong about gold? As I note in my article six months ago: “While The Economist pretends to offer serious analysis of gold, in reality it doesn’t.  It has another objective – anti-gold propaganda.” To be blunt, The Economist is a tool of the gold cartel, the activities of which are well documented by the Gold-Anti Trust Action Committee. GATA’s research is available for free at www.GATA.org 

The gold cartel has one primary objective – to make the dollar look worthy of being the world’s reserve currency. We all of course know that the dollar is not worthy of that esteemed title, but that doesn’t stop the gold cartel.

One way they pursue their objective is to intervene in the gold market to keep its price low. Gold and the dollar are major competitors; they compete for holders. A low gold price makes people believe that all is well with the dollar. But the gold cartel also uses other means to pursue its nefarious goal, one of which is disinformation.  

The gold cartel knows as well as you and I that not only is gold money, it is the most powerful money of all because its value is not based upon someone’s promise. Gold has no counter-party risk. So it is only with reluctance that the gold cartel dishoards metal from central bank vaults. They know that once that gold is sold into the market, they are unlikely to ever get it back at current prices. It is therefore less costly for them to just disparage gold. By doing so, they hope to keep you from buying it, thereby lessening its demand.

So from time to time, the gold cartel enlists anti-gold publications that favor fractional reserve banking, fiat national currency, and managed money through the central banking elite. The Economist is all of those, with the result that it sits at the top of the gold cartel’s list of friendly rags. When the gold cartel is losing control, they invariably turn to The Economist, which then dutifully spins out some disparaging piece on gold, but to no avail. Eventually the market always overwhelms government price controls. It is an unalterable reality that price controls always fail eventually, even government price controls on gold.

So my conclusion is the same as the one I wrote about six months ago. “When reading about gold in The Economist, do it with a jaundiced eye, understanding that its foremost objective is to disparage gold.  More importantly, when this infallible indicator flashes a buy signal, start buying.”

****

by James Turk 
Copyright  © 2007 by James Turk.  All rights reserved.

James Turk is the Founder & Chairman of GoldMoney.com http://goldmoney.com/. He is the co-author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar www.dollarcollapse.com.


----------



## imitrust

If you use pricing methodologies based on the amount of debt issued by the US Federal Reserve (and others) tied to their gold stock then gold should be in the high $2,000's per oz.  If anything, it is maintained artifically low so everyone doesn't freak the hell out.


----------



## explod

imitrust said:


> If you use pricing methodologies based on the amount of debt issued by the US Federal Reserve (and others) tied to their gold stock then gold should be in the high $2,000's per oz.  If anything, it is maintained artifically low so everyone doesn't freak the hell out.




Good point.   Everyone is starting to freak out over the sub-prime debt issue anyway so a bit more freaking out probably wont' matter too much soon.


----------



## ithatheekret

I've had moving price on gold for a few years now , but rarely talk about the topic now , due mainly to the derogatory comments that flew my way once , when I said it would smash the $400 barrier with ease . My top then was $650 , it has since risen to $940 , but if things in the Us slow down any faster , that could easily be surpassed . None of my factors have included hostilities .

PS .... not really a gold bug , but it has always been an alternate store of wealth . 

Admitting nonapologetically that I am a capitalist pig and believe that money makes the world go round and capital gains tax should be abolished for traders .


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> I've had moving price on gold for a few years now , but rarely talk about the topic now , due mainly to the derogatory comments that flew my way once , when I said it would smash the $400 barrier with ease . My top then was $650 , it has since risen to $940 , but if things in the Us slow down any faster , that could easily be surpassed . None of my factors have included hostilities .
> 
> PS .... not really a gold bug , but it has always been an alternate store of wealth .
> 
> Admitting nonapologetically that I am a capitalist pig and believe that money makes the world go round and capital gains tax should be abolished for traders .





Yes because the banking cartels have great fear of gold destroying thier fiat currency institutional spin doctors put people off.  So naturally there is scepticism even on this forum.  However as the current economic crisis is playing out that is changing.  So it is good to have you back on board.

I was going over some old notes that I keep on gold and for the gold bug faithful found one that is very apt for us to think about at the moment.  Tried to reconnect with the link but too far back.  However I think it so good I will retype some of the salient points.  Dont think my scanner is good enough to do it that way.

It is from Derek K. Van Artsdalen and dated 24/7/2004 via Kitco.

It opens by discussing the nervousness as the bull run gets fully underway and how followers wonder if it is going to turn down and if they should liquidate positions, ie. ..."is the bull run over for gold"...

So Artsdalen did a study of the previous bull run (from 1977 to 1980) and here is what he found:-


"Out of a total of about 655 trading days from the low in mid-77 to the peak in January 80, there were 370 trading days in which the London PM fix was higher than the previous day's fix and there were 285 trading days in which the price fix was lower than the previous days fix.  In other words, even during the greates modern-day bull market for gold has ever experienced, nearly 44% of the time, it was trading lower from the previous day's fix price!!!  That traders witnessed a lowering of the price of an ounce of gold from the previous day's trading!!!

Additionally, there were five months during that 31-month run-up in which the average price of gold was actually lower than the previous month's average.  No doubt people were wondering at that time, "is the bull market over?'.  Even as late as August 23, 1979 the price of gold was only $310.05 - almost exactly where it is today!  But only 20 weeks later, the price of gold had skyrocketed to its peak of about $875 per ounce -- a 180% increase in fewer than 5 months!!!   Think how tempting it would have been to sell out when gold hit, say $400..."      "...,only to watch with regret and frustration as it continued exploding upward past $500, past $600, past $700, and, fianlly, past $800 per ounce!!!   The lesson is this, it is in the latter stages of bull markets where most of the money is made..."  

Getting to too many words, continue next post.........
"


----------



## explod

The next para, reinforces the last with another example but concludes  "...that at the peak gold in the last 3 weeks shot up 70% to $875!!!

He goes on  "The point is, though that even in the bst of bull markets, nearly half the trading days will be "down" days."

Again I pass two paras......to:-

"That's right: in the most power packed bull run ever witnessed in the gold market, gold managed new highs only 20 days out of each 100!"

[end quote]

Now to put that into some context today I like to look back at the chart for that time period and it will be seen that compared to today our uptrend is nowhere near as steep yet as it got prior to the peak.  This time we are gradually going up and consolidating as we do.

I will let you consider by this comparison as to where to from here.  I know I will be hanging on for some time yet.

Chart coutesy of the "Privateer Newsletter"


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Marc Faber - Gold rules*

In my opinion, the world's new currency with the qualities of being a 'unit of account' and 'store of value' will be gold and to a lesser extent other precious metals.

http://www.ameinfo.com/137536.html


----------



## explod

Further to my last post, our situation today is very similar to that shown in the lead up to the chart posted above by the one previous and shown here.  In fact August 78 looks very similar to where we are at now.  If that were to be the case then we are only about 30% up the hill and we may see a 250 to 300% rise over the next year or so.

Interesting. that seems to match what many are saying, that the inflation adjusted figure from 1980 to today should be US$2,500 gold.  So if these currency weaknesses see gold go to true value who knows.

We will see what pans out.

Chart, courtresy "The Privateer Newsletter"


----------



## Whiskers

The carry-trade is still hurting and hedge funds need to sell gold and silver, apparently!



> NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- *Gold futures fell sharply early Friday, after surging to a record closing high in the previous session, as traders rushed to lock in gains. *
> 
> Gold for December delivery fell $6.30 at $831.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold finished at a record closing high of $837.50 on Thursday, topping Wednesday's record by $4.
> 
> "With the breakdown of DJIA [Dow Jones Industrial Average] and in particular the collapse of the Nasdaq [on Thursday], hedge funds involved in carry-trade loans are hurting," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
> 
> "On Friday, before a three-day weekend, the funds will be forced to rebalance their risk levels," said Schmidt in emailed comments. "With equity already being sold, they will turn to selling gold and silver."
> 
> There could be a $20 to $40 drop in gold prices on Friday "as funds attempt to lighten their risk, read as gold," he said. "Buyers should sit on their money and watch."
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E11-976D-47C9-A160-71219BF5E4E5}&siteid=yhoof


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> The carry-trade is still hurting and hedge funds need to sell gold and silver, apparently!




Just the spin of the plunge protection team.  In fact I would doubt the carry trade would have any bullion left after there first sell off and they would have been too pre occupied to buy back in.   Of course in early trade there was an attempted sell down followed by the announcement.  The supression tactics no longer seem to work.

The other interesting aspect is that Wall Street is now down 2 nights in a row and still gold holds firm.  Yep, gold has decoupled and is showing very bullish signs.   I had thought there would have been a correction this week myself, and you all know by now how biased I am.


----------



## Kauri

Amazing...or ironic?? the PPT (consisting I assume of Wall St's big firm names), who are supposedly charged with carrying out this nefarious act of interferring with the natural flow of the markets, are also the ones whose heads are rolling for causing the plunge in the first place.... God must exist and he has a wicked sense of humour..   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Don't go down to the woods tonight....  
Cheers
........Kauri



> November 9.  A relatively-modest $12 range has been set so far in gold, with a
> $831 Dec close needed to retain a bullish view on our daily model.  Trend
> Intensity, a separate calculation, is set to uptick bullishly to 50 today based
> on the huge momentum that has carried prices nearly $200 higher (range) since
> mid-August.  Readings of 50 or higher are extremely rare and are often
> associated with exhaustion-type moves.  The spoiler here is the greenback, whose
> downward slope has assumed new dimensions and is still in search of a price low
> enough to attract buyers.  Capitulation there should lead to a stronger
> correction in gold.  Daily resistance is at $842 Dec, then either side of $848.
> Supports are $831, then $826.50.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri said:


> Don't go down to the woods tonight....
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Hey Kauri, so we've gone from 'songs to trade by' (Turning Japanese?) to 'nursery rhymes to trade by' 



explod said:


> The other interesting aspect is that Wall Street is now down 2 nights in a row and still gold holds firm. Yep, gold has decoupled and is showing very bullish signs.




Yes, the decoupling continues, until there is only the one store of value left I'm afraid. The equity market correlation has now well & truly _bean_ broken? $830 seems to be the basing area for relaunch?



> "On Friday, before a three-day weekend, the funds will be forced to rebalance their risk levels," said Schmidt in emailed comments. "With equity already being sold, they will turn to selling gold and silver."
> 
> There could be a $20 to $40 drop in gold prices on Friday "as funds attempt to lighten their risk, read as gold," he said. "Buyers should sit on their money and watch."



Some wake up calls for the paradigm economy cronies who still don't get it!


----------



## ithatheekret

You have to be patient , afterall the world is run by Keynesians . 

The men in white will eventually round them all up , well the ones that still have valid expiry dates anyway ............


----------



## Whiskers

Well, it looks like the PPT might have had a little up their sleave. Testing your $826.50 support, Kauri.


----------



## Kauri

Well I wouldn't have thought it probable but.... is it possible that she will head for the mid 700's????
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> Well I wouldn't have thought it probable but.... is it possible that she will head for the mid 700's????
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



2 obvious support lines on those retractments. About time we had a correction, if it is...


----------



## bean

For historical purposes POG biggest drop US$ 42.50 on 28th Feb 1983

That however was a 10% drop.

Thing to watch is the US$  any traction and well.

May be a bad week in general for everything.


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Well I wouldn't have thought it probable but.... is it possible that she will head for the mid 700's????
> Cheers
> .........Kauri





At the start of most weeks the gold price is pushed down by the Plunge Protection Team before the heavier trading begins in the hope that they can create a correction.  Many countries are now alarmed at the weakening US dollar and golds strength is confirmation that the fiat currency system is not back by assets.   In fact the US dollar is propped up by debt.

The big players are waking up to these facts so I wouldn't count on too much of a correction.  Of course Dow could spill over and that would cause a gold retracement to some degree perhaps.

We will see what pans out.


----------



## Kauri

Refraining from the ubiquitious "cut and paste..  ") it seems that a few margins have been called due to the $10 odd drop today, adding a bit of fuel to the fire.... and talking of fuel. no..better not..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

I hear "around the traps" that quite a bit of hedge-fund selling of carry trades, gold, and oil are going on.... the gold chart certainly looks like it anyways... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> I hear "around the traps" that quite a bit of hedge-fund selling of carry trades, gold, and oil are going on.... the gold chart certainly looks like it anyways...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



Healthy correction. Would have preferred it to happen a couple of weeks ago to smooth out the rise. Now we have to suffer in the short term. Unless you're short of course.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Healthy correction. Would have preferred it to happen a couple of weeks ago to smooth out the rise. Now we have to suffer in the short term. Unless you're short of course.




Yes it was starting to go too fast, which makes us a bit complacent to the bigger picture.   In any case the retracement so far is only to where we were a week ago, a level  where it hung for awhile which should provide support.

It was fairly evident from some reports over the weekend, that a defence of the dollar would be attempted, and it has risen a bit overnight, but a sell off of gold when traders are still rubbing their eyes at the start of the week has become part of the script for that.  

We should be more concerned if the drop continues into the next day so.  What happens after US time 1500hrs (3 pm)to 1600hrs will be a fair indicator of that.


----------



## Sean K

I'm seeing most support at $790 and $760 ish ish.

Kauri, what's the chance this is the completion of a larger W1 started 20 Aug? 

Can I ramp gold anymore than that? LOL.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Healthy correction. Would have preferred it to happen a couple of weeks ago to smooth out the rise. Now we have to suffer in the short term. *Unless you're short of course*.




  The last time I was this short was when I played Grumpy in the school play...  
  As she has been stepping out on the 4Hourly she has generally found support on the last tread... in this case around the $800 level...
  On the dailys my count has us in a *possible* W2... possibly..
   Meantime.. back to the scratcher..  :sleeping:
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Nick Radge

Post #2128:



> What one should be aware off is that the other side to the Commercials trades are large speculators, specifically the large CTA funds that follow trends. When they decide to exit there will be a sizable, if not brief, selloff. We've seen this in more recent times so we should expect more of it in the future. (PS: this same thing happens with all commodities - not just gold).




Last nights activity is exactly what I was talking about.


----------



## Sean K

1209 [Dow Jones] Spot gold recovers half of early selloff, last bid $797.40, after early Asian downdraft pushed price through $798 from $802, triggering stop loss selling, which in a thin bidding market eventually bottomed out around $792, Sydney trader says. Tocom opening saw some initial selling, but that market now also has recovered a little, trader says, adding weaker crude oil weighing on spot gold. Unlike yesterday, little push either way from USD, though that has weakened since 0010 GMT. Trader notes sharp fall for gold from $846 late last week, says "it was a correction we needed to have, the market was very long"; adds probably today in Asia "at least we'll see a bit of support at $790." (RCB)


----------



## bean

bean said:


> For historical purposes POG biggest drop US$ 42.50 on 28th Feb 1983
> 
> That however was a 10% drop.




The action yesterday on Comex
Comex spot gold price
Date	Open	High	Low	Last	Change
11/12/07	830.50	830.50	792.25	794.05	-37.85

Not quite biggest drop...  maybe this correction is over 
re-entered today as US gold Indies completed a run of 1 up and 4 down and the gold indexes fell into to support at same time.

For historical purposes 
POG highest US$ 850 on the 21st January 1980


----------



## explod

Yes there is general consensus that the correction was a given.  Looks like the bottom at US$795 has been confirmed.   Again the US dollar index is the key driver at this time which confirms that unbacked fiat currencies will implode to naught given time.  The US index shows the clear downtrend of the last few months and how it has again turned down today off the upper trend line.   The gold price will recover accordingly..


----------



## rederob

bean said:


> For historical purposes
> POG highest US$ 850 on the 21st January 1980




Are you sure, bean?


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> Are you sure, bean?





Yes I believe Bean has it about right.  Gold did during a trading day spike  above US$900  However it is the closing price that is recorded as the value.


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Yes I believe Bean has it about right.  Gold did during a trading day spike  above US$900  However it is the closing price that is recorded as the value.



And I thought you were a gold bug!


----------



## bean

POG did spike during the day in which it made its high.

Tonight when I did my post I thought POG may make it way to US $ 825 tonight.  Still on but it doesn't want to drop to much more.
But the thing is if POG gets past the US $ 850 well its next bit to worry may be the US $ 900 or its intraday high.

I was listening to financial sense broadcast last weekend when the precious metal person mentioned this friday to watch the 
Net Foreign Purchases for Sept, which is released at 9am friday morning in the US. If its a big negative number he reckons a big day down in markets, gold stocks included.  As foreign investors will flee US markets as they won't want to be the last one in.
If it does happen money will flow to bonds and US$ initially and POG may benifit in a small way until they realise and flee the US$.

However there is certain Gold sites in the US that are currently telling there subscribers to exit from financial institutions, remove money from banks and invest in foreign currencies, Gold etc
One of the reason why
http://http://www.safehaven.com/article-8797.htm

With all this going on wild swings will be happening in gold.  Up and down.

DOW Theory...the Industrials are only a few hundred points from confirming the US Markets in a bear.


----------



## bean

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8797.htm

The link to many http//www in first post


----------



## CanOz

I'm not sure GOLD has finished its retracement...although i would like to think so, because i want to be a buyer, not a seller. Anyway, heres a chart of the mini that i'm looking at. I can't see it not testing 780.

I must say however, on the 30 minute chart that it looks like volume bubble stopping that last move down....

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri

Just an idle thought on gold...  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## rederob

bean said:


> POG did spike during the day in which it made its high.



Comex pegged the top at $895.

Kauri
Possibly idle.
But maybe not: The charts I reviewed have no scope for any real consolidation at this point.  It's either a good tilt at $900, or a dip into low $700s for more and longer consolidation.


----------



## Kauri

rederob said:


> Kauri
> Possibly idle.
> But maybe not: The charts I reviewed have no scope for any real consolidation at this point. It's either a good tilt at $900, or a dip into low $700s for more and longer consolidation.



 Rederob...
 can't help but agree with you.... if it doesn't go up it's going to go down.....   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## rederob

Kauri said:


> Rederob...
> can't help but agree with you.... if it doesn't go up it's going to go down.....
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



Ok.
But what I meant was that I did not see any protracted consolidation in a narrow range.
This is a time of great volatility and gold will be a good part of it in my reckoning.
So when it goes up or down, which it obviously will, my suspicion is that it will be of significant magnitude in the near term.


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:


> Ok.
> But what I meant was that I did not see any protracted consolidation in a narrow range.
> This is a time of great volatility and gold will be a good part of it in my reckoning.
> So when it goes up or down, which it obviously will, my suspicion is that it will be of significant magnitude in the near term.




Looks to be another fantastic call at this stage Red. Geez... I'm glad I didn't get rid of my gold trades.


----------



## Kauri

Just some more idle time spent perusing the gold chart... without "cutting and pasting" I hear around the traps that a bit of sub-prime worry is resurfacing, having a possible negative effect on gold.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## bean

well it would appear POG has failed on the US$825.
One correction is the XAU/POG = .19   (buy .19 or less)
currently XAU 178.47  POG US$ 805 = .22


----------



## rederob

Kauri said:


> Just some more idle time spent perusing the gold chart... without "cutting and pasting" I hear around the traps that a bit of sub-prime worry is resurfacing, having a possible negative effect on gold.
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



Kauri
I think your channels are too narrow!
The curious aspect of tonight's 2% decline is that oil has gone the complete opposite direction.
Which suggests to me that the technical traders are strutting their stuff at the moment.
Get used to daily swings in a 3%  or greater range until the bullish forces are spent - and I don't think we are there just yet.


----------



## Kauri

rederob said:


> Kauri
> I think your channels are too narrow!
> The curious aspect of tonight's 2% decline is that oil has gone the complete opposite direction.
> Which suggests to me that the technical traders are strutting their stuff at the moment.
> Get used to daily swings in a 3% or greater range until the bullish forces are spent - and I don't think we are there just yet.




Rederob,
           Channels, flags, whatever.... I'm happy..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## bean

rederob said:


> Kauri
> I think your channels are too narrow!
> The curious aspect of tonight's 2% decline is that oil has gone the complete opposite direction.
> Which suggests to me that the technical traders are strutting their stuff at the moment.
> Get used to daily swings in a 3%  or greater range until the bullish forces are spent - and I don't think we are there just yet.




I had a bullish scenario now a bearish (short/longterm) may be taking place (I subscribe to a site now, so today I had a number it did not make it which may show buyers are drying up).  But based on other things I am also getting a correction....How much not sure at this moment. (but could be short and severe)
one thing us gold bulls have over the other paricipants in this site or other sites is that we know POG is reflecting in the markets  in some way.  We know financial markets are in a worse state than what the average investor thinks.  That this link if you like is or should be the controlling link of the markets (believe it or not).
My bearish scenario is not good for general Markets.....


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri mentioned POG could go back to the low $700's, Kennas support around $790 and $760 and Canaussieuck testing support at $780.

I'm having a go at extending my charting expertise (mainly lack of) to try to figure where gold is going. A basic tenent of my current theory is that the credit crisis has had a false run. We have just started the correction all over again... a repeat... since the market was told that everything was under control and seemed to pretty much accept that, now with that accounting rule kicking in forcing more losses and write downs and concern for the fed, I'm more inclined to think, more from a psychological perspective, that people will react pretty much the same again.

Somebody mentioned earlier about a parallel correction in terms of one of the stock indicies. Then it would be reasonable to assume that gold could do the same thing. Doing some quick maths if the correction is a parallel to Aug, it would take us back to about $705 (if my maths and conversion is correct). 

I'm a complete novice at wave analysis, and am intergied by those wave theory fellows, but was the August correction a 5 wave? Then we are just starting the 3rd wave of 5 down again to abt 156 or $705. Do people see that eventuating? It seems to be testing $790 again tonight.

Excuse my rough chart, but I think you should see what I am getting at.


----------



## p-po

I have done a lot of research on this and I absolutely, confidently believe Gold will break 1000 / oz. At this point, 800 is the resistance.  Let's see how the market reacts but I have put a lot of money on gold stocks already.

I go through this blog at least once a week to see what other technical analysis I am missing and what professional traders have to say...

http://hot-metals.blogspot.com/


----------



## Sean K

p-po said:


> I have done a lot of research on this and I absolutely, confidently believe Gold will break 1000 / oz. At this point, 800 is the resistance.  Let's see how the market reacts but I have put a lot of money on gold stocks already.
> 
> I go through this blog at least once a week to see what other technical analysis I am missing and what professional traders have to say...
> 
> http://hot-metals.blogspot.com/



You're not Andrew Sheldon by any chance are you?


----------



## GreatPig

A chart of the GOLD stock in A$. The new trendline I have marked is almost exactly parallel to the other one coming out of the saucer bottom.

GP


----------



## Sean K

GreatPig said:


> A chart of the GOLD stock in A$. The new trendline I have marked is almost exactly parallel to the other one coming out of the saucer bottom.
> 
> GP



Looks like it still could be a 4 or 5 of an uptrend. Perhaps POG back to 760 ish will bring this back towards the trend line and it's a 4.


----------



## Kauri

I have gold, after tumbling out of the channel/flag/tramtracks, now at a typical W5 point... not to say it won't go further in this count, but I am proceeding with caution at this point in case she retraces into a larger degree 2.... or something...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> I have gold, after tumbling out of the channel/flag/tramtracks, now at a typical W5 point... not to say it won't go further in this count, but I am proceeding with caution at this point in case she retraces into a larger degree 2.... or something...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



Yes, I meant to say 5...  going to a support line around 760. Is that a fib retraction level?


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Yes, I meant to say 5...  going to a support line around 760. Is that a fib retraction level?




 Hi Kennas,
               Budgie says that anything around the 750 mark give or take... by my beginners count 766 is the 38.2% ret and 742 is the 50% ret...
Cheep cheep
.................Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> Hi Kennas,
> Budgie says that anything around the 750 mark give or take... by my beginners count 766 is the 38.2% ret and 742 is the 50% ret...
> Cheep cheep
> .................Kauri



By my naked eye it was 760 but if the budgie is cheeping at 750, then I defer to the bird.


----------



## Enoch

Has anybody heard of the Liberty Dollar?

This is a gold and silver backed currency that has been in competition with the US Greenback since 1998.

It was becoming a popular means of exchanging goods and services as the US dollar value depreciates.

On 8 am Wednesday the FBI and secrete service raided the organisation that that runs it.

From what I have read all the gold and silver which backs the liberty dollar and owned by the American public has been confiscated.

Check it out on the website.  

http://www.libertydollar.org/ld/legal/raid.htm

This was also discussed with Bill Murphy in this weeks Financial Sense News hour.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Don't know exactly when but me thinks something even uglier is going to happen to the US dollar.


----------



## So_Cynical

Liberty dollar....thats weird :taz:

Defiantly falls into the "only in America" category.

EDIT:
Hey theres a heap of "alternative" currencies out there...amazing, i had no idea..:dunno:

Digital gold currency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_gold_currency

E-Gold http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-gold

e-gold is a digital gold currency operated by Gold & Silver Reserve Inc. under e-gold Ltd., and is a system which allows the instant transfer of gold ownership between users. e-gold Ltd. is incorporated in Nevis, Lesser Antilles.

According to the company's website, as of April 2007, e-gold had 112,188 oz (3,492.0 kilograms) of gold and 138,567 oz (4,313.1 kg) of silver in storage, which is worth approximately US$86 million. [1] There are typically 66,000 e-gold spends each day totalling 15,000 oz (470 kg), which is about US$10.5 million. There are over three million e-gold accounts of which about one quarter are active.

e-gold is a form of commodity money, so it is subject to the price fluctuations of that commodity. If the price of gold drops versus a national currency, the value of e-gold drops in that currency. The account balance, which is denominated in gold grams, does not change, but its purchasing power will change in relation to the gold price.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Have taken a short on Spot Gold, entry 781$

using a very simple system with some basic Mclaren trend analysis.

Two lower highs formed, Trend has broken line, CCI21 dipped though zero Price dipped though 21 simple ma.

I have fib points laid out as spots of resistance. Sharpening my stop as it moves down.

So_cynical 
Egold has been around for awhile as well, it's another e currency, a lot of HYIP scams use it cuz it's hard to track, but i hear that's changing now. That stuff is not for me i prefer good old money!

peace


----------



## genus

Trade_It said:


> Have taken a short on Spot Gold, entry 781$
> 
> using a very simple system with some basic Mclaren trend analysis.
> 
> Two lower highs formed, Trend has broken line, CCI21 dipped though zero Price dipped though 21 simple ma.
> 
> I have fib points laid out as spots of resistance. Sharpening my stop as it moves down.
> 
> So_cynical
> Egold has been around for awhile as well, it's another e currency, a lot of HYIP scams use it cuz it's hard to track, but i hear that's changing now. That stuff is not for me i prefer good old money!
> 
> peace




Newbie question but how does one short gold? Through the ZAUWBA warrants?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

genus said:


> Newbie question but how does one short gold? Through the ZAUWBA warrants?




Hi Genus,

You can short gold though a CFD outfit like IG or CMC on the spot price or the future price.

Or you can short it by selling a actual futures contract, with Xpress trade or IB or and other futures broker that offers a contracts in the Gold market.

I have shorted gold with a CFD over the spot price.

Hope that helps.


----------



## BREND

I've long gold while it was trading at US$590, will add on when it goes to US$750.


----------



## greenfs

I have just read a 100+ page document that was received through a major Australian-based broking house, which indicates that gold will reach USD1,500 and may go much higher than that value.

I am not prepared to name the source, but can advise that it was prepared by a London-based & industry recognised firm.

The provider of the report indicated that for every 10% rise in the price of gold, that would result in a 20% increase in the bottom line of companies like Lihir & Newcrest. Translated, this suggests a 200% growth in the relevant share prices if the price rise eventuates.

Whilst very intrigued by the report, I find this projection very hard to swallow. What do others think?


----------



## Boyou

Sure would be nice if you could name your source

Without accreditation this might be considered Ramping..c'mon,I promise you won't be put on the rack if it turns out to be a dud source!! 

I am knee deep in Spec Gold miners...the 'gators are getting closer


Cheers Ya'll


----------



## So_Cynical

greenfs said:


> I have just read a 100+ page document that was received through a major Australian-based broking house, which indicates that gold will reach USD1,500 and may go much higher than that value.
> 
> Whilst very intrigued by the report, I find this projection very hard to swallow. What do others think?




Gold will see $1500 and higher no doubt...the time frame is whats in question.


----------



## explod

greenfs said:


> I have just read a 100+ page document that was received through a major Australian-based broking house, which indicates that gold will reach USD1,500 and may go much higher than that value.
> 
> I am not prepared to name the source, but can advise that it was prepared by a London-based & industry recognised firm.
> 
> The provider of the report indicated that for every 10% rise in the price of gold, that would result in a 20% increase in the bottom line of companies like Lihir & Newcrest. Translated, this suggests a 200% growth in the relevant share prices if the price rise eventuates.
> 
> Whilst very intrigued by the report, I find this projection very hard to swallow. What do others think?





I never cease to be amazed that some people are amazed that gold will go up.  On an inflation adjusted basis gold should be more than US$2,000 an ounce.   Money is deflating because it is backed by massive debt.  Oil is going up because oil has a  tangible value, food and other tangible needs are also going up for the same reason.  But it is increasingly taking more dollars to buy these goods.  It is not so much that the goods are going up, it is that the value of money is going down.

Gold has gone up 100% in the last 3 years.  I have made a lot of money following the trend in gold and I have a lot more to make on it yet.

Tell me why are others sceptical.  I dont want to hear from the converted gold bulls, but the sceptics.


----------



## Boyou

Thanks for the open invitation,explod.

I am a relative late comer to Gold and the whole speculation/prediction tableau.
Perhaps I might best be described as a fence sitter. In the last 8 months I have taken positions in spec Gold miners ( as well as silver and base metals in genaral).I see this as a reasonably "canny" thing to do. My gut feeling is that my selections will do well. (trying to keep emotion out of this.)

What perplexes and puzzles me is the lengths to which the Central Banks and Cartels ..and hell ..let's call them the forces of evil! ...will go to manipulate  and massage the POG. 

I do know that there are some Big challenges ahead for the western/developed world..definitely forewarned and forearmed ...but trying not to have a mindset that dictates my moves...Not a bull or a bear..just alert and sceptical.

What's the Chinese curse? "May you Live in Interesting Times! "

Yeah


----------



## explod

Boyou said:


> Thanks for the open invitation,explod.
> 
> I am a relative late comer to Gold and the whole speculation/prediction tableau.
> Perhaps I might best be described as a fence sitter. In the last 8 months I have taken positions in spec Gold miners ( as well as silver and base metals in genaral).I see this as a reasonably "canny" thing to do. My gut feeling is that my selections will do well. (trying to keep emotion out of this.)
> 
> What perplexes and puzzles me is the lengths to which the Central Banks and Cartels ..and hell ..let's call them the forces of evil! ...will go to manipulate  and massage the POG.
> 
> I do know that there are some Big challenges ahead for the western/developed world..definitely forewarned and forearmed ...but trying not to have a mindset that dictates my moves...Not a bull or a bear..just alert and sceptical.
> 
> What's the Chinese curse? "May you Live in Interesting Times! "
> 
> Yeah




It is worth reading some history on gold.  In fact we should not be invested in anything unless we know its history.   Since before the Romans gold has been a store of wealth and traded for goods.  Many times over as an empires finances have collapsed gold has been the saviour to the savvy dealer/investor.  A rise in the gold price sends out a universal message that it is happening again, that currency is losing value.  So the cartels try to control and keep the secret away from the sheeple.  However the currencies this time have no gold backing as they did prior to the Bretton Woods agreement (look it up and read about it) so money (paper money) is going to continue to lose value and gold will continue to gain in value.

There is too much to the story of gold to relate here and because it is so important to the serious investor/speculator today you need to do yourself a big favour and read up on it.

Cheers and success in your trading.  explod


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Stopped with a tiny profit.


----------



## bean

For newcomers to the Gold bull  a couple of articles I have shown to people at work throughout the years.
this one is from March 2004 but makes interesting reading
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2004/0322.html


----------



## So_Cynical

Trade_It said:


> Stopped with a tiny profit.




Lucky u $788 ATM....were due for a run up.


----------



## explod

Trade_It said:


> Stopped with a tiny profit.




I'm glad I didn't stop.   The gold bull is not only intact, with these rises and falls very big players are taking notice.  Be sure to be loaded this time through US$850, the previous all time high because US$1000 and beyond could come in a heart beat, or a month or 2.  Problem with the dynamics in this financial crises is that they seem to defy the normal rules.  We live in abnormal times;-


----------



## Kauri

A touch early to bank on anything but may be starting off on *W3orC*???
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> I never cease to be amazed that some people are amazed that gold will go up. On an inflation adjusted basis gold should be more than US$2,000 an ounce. Money is deflating because it is backed by massive debt. Oil is going up because oil has a tangible value, food and other tangible needs are also going up for the same reason. But it is increasingly taking more dollars to buy these goods. It is not so much that the goods are going up, it is that the value of money is going down.
> 
> Gold has gone up 100% in the last 3 years. I have made a lot of money following the trend in gold and I have a lot more to make on it yet.
> 
> Tell me why are others sceptical. I dont want to hear from the converted gold bulls, but the sceptics.




When "others" stop becoming sceptical, and that's when the gold price is like over $1500 per oz plus you have taxi drivers talking about buying gold shares, then it's the time to leave.

Are we there yet? Nope.  Most investors still have no idea about the potential in investing in gold. 

The only biggest concern is the manipulation of gold prices by major central banks. While they will eventually run out of gold to sell to suppress the prices, they still have some ammo left. It's a good time to be in the gold market still but definitely not in leveraged mode due to sudden sharp selling from manipulation. 

P.S: Same as for silver, but it's even worse in terms of degree of manipulation.


----------



## bean

POG is at a critical juncture over the few days.
Could we have a divergence between the POG and gold stocks.
US Gold stocks will move in the same direction of the general market if it tanks in the next week.  Liquidity will be needed so the stocks will be sold initially.  Last thanksgiving the US$ dropped  does it do the opposite this time.

One of the few commodities not to be dropping is Oil...if that takes a hit in the next day or two...possibility POG may as well.

An insight to where the POG may head in the nearish term but it has to get past a price.  Oh and he has been picking the price moves excellent

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1195660800.php


----------



## explod

Bean it looks as though Rick's idea is little better than the rest of us in this market.  Gold has quickly recovered from its correction and the consolidation now at just a little above US$800 is making it look very likely that the next move will be decidedly up.

Yes the market will effect gold stocks to some degree.  The one I watch close, with an international flavour is Newmont Mining.   It has risen 13% in the last month and very much against the trend of the Dow.   This tells me that larger institutional players are not phased by other market forces.

The banking cartel have an agreement to offload about 500 tonnes of gold per year to keep a lid on prices.  However world gold production is decreasing in spite of the rising price and consumer demand is increasing  exponentially, the following released by Reuters overnight:-

"...India and China consumed 721.9 tons and 259.6 tons of gold for jewelry and investement, respectively, in 2006.

The World Gold Council said global demand in the third quarter rose 19 percent year-on-year to 947.2 tons on the back of robust inflows into bullion investment funds and improved jewelry consumption."  [end quote]

Temjin:  I consider from a variety of averments that the institutional cartels are uncomfortable with gold at current levels, which is much in evidence from the higher volatility in the gold price, particularly on the trading hour fringes.  

I believe we have now reached the point where investment demand, largely to cushion losses against the falling US dollar, has begun to surpass the supply from both the banking cartel-dumps and mine production.

May be wrong, but just my 2 cents for thanksgiving


I hold shares in NEM


----------



## Whiskers

I've been doing my end of week musing again.

It's mainly based on the psychology of the markets with reference to the rythum and cycles, like what I imagine you wave chartists are about, with a touch of intuition. When I learn more about these wave charts I might be able to relate it better. 

But to carry on from where I left off last time, it looks like we have a bit of a bull run going again, I think you might call the wave 4, that the picture in my minds eye see's this peaking sometime in the next few days before a quick fall, the number I was trying to relate technically in a chart earlier and I think in the low 700's, from where the real bull run kicks off again just as sharply.

Bean has been speculating about a bigger correction for some time and kauri I think mentioned a low 700 number earlier. I think it is coming probably late next week. 

My elderly mum talks about dreams and visions that tend to come true. Coincidently after I studied a bit of psychology I encountered some literature and people involved in mind dynamics and started practising connecting to and interpreting dreams myself. As one author said once you develop the inner calm and start to see how things unfold before they happen, it's so surreal.

I think it is basically the power of meditation to let your subconscious mind compute all the variables and come up with the logical progression of events. I felt pretty comfortable with my 'intuition' re weather cycles and production levels etc in the horticultural industry. This here though is a relatively new field for me, where I am still finding my feet and learning to interpret things.

I'm getting the impression that bean is doing a bit of something similar, and sometimes doubting his vision, but he is much more versed than I in relating it in contempory investor jargon. 

What say you bean? A bit of a rally next week before it hits the deck.


----------



## explod

That is an interesting approach Whiskers.  At Uni years ago found my way into Emmanual Kant through to Carl Jung and the concepts of intuition fed by ESP, or as some like to describe it "the intellectual flow".   Such knowledge I found was very good for developing another view of the world, or if you like, lateral thinking outside the box.

I have worked very hard at economics and technical analysis over the last eight or nine years and it is working a treat for me.  However I am sorry to report that "the flow" within the vagaries of the market has not helped one iota.

In the Sunday Age I noticed that the dart board is winning the stock tipping competition, an analyist is next but Dooreen of the stars is well down this month. 

If you look back over my last few posts you will note that logic seems to work ok.


----------



## Nick Radge

Here is the seasonal chart for Gold during November. Very high correlation on all 3 time frames suggesting a probable strong end to the month. The fact that some gaps (Island reversal?) have been left from the recent decline and this seasonal tendency then there was a strong cause for the market pushing back up. If you refer to the lower axis on this seasonal chart and find '12' you will note it relates to the low point for the month. Now go to your Gold chart and count 12 trading days from month start. 12 trading days is the 19th. The 19th was the exact low for Gold...

The seasonal chart for December is also very interesting.


----------



## Sean K

> *Gold Has Biggest Weekly Gain Since July 2006 on Dollar's Slump *
> By Millie Munshi
> 
> Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Gold jumped 3.3 percent, capping the biggest weekly gain since July 2006, as the dollar's decline to a record against the euro and climbing energy costs sparked demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.
> 
> The price of gold has surged 29 percent this year, and the dollar is down 10 percent to the lowest ever against a basket of six currencies, including the euro and the yen. Crude oil closed above $98 a barrel, and heating oil climbed to a record.




Dollar and oil can't keep going lower and higher like this for ever can they? 

I suppose things can get worse in Iran. 
US money printing might need to swing into full stride to pay for another war.

On the other hand, if the Fed does not lower rates again as expected in Dec, I think there's every chance of another correction in POG. Or at least a knee jerk sell off...


----------



## Spaghetti

Recent dips are probably central bankers dumping gold on the market to keep a lid on prices. Yet has not worked for long. I wonder how much they will continue to dump and whether it is at all smart to do so?

I found this article interesting, from May this year and published on Kitco.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Willie/may042007.html

Sample of article

All the conditions were there, a euro currency breakout, a British sterling currency breakout, and pronounced USDollar weakness. The sterling exchange rate even hit $2.00 to capture a tremendous amount of attention. The denials streamed in on how the weaker USDollar is not such a big deal, which always serves as a confirmation of a dire situation. The crippled USDollar cannot buck the passage of time and inexorable destruction through unfettered monetary inflation abuse and colossal irresponsibility. The protection racket actually open the door for executive perks which dwarf whatever was condoned at Tyco with lavish Roman toga parties and gold bathroom fixtures. The world reserve currency is in the process of upchuck rejection.

GOLD SLAMMED BUT FIRM

Anyone wondering why gold has not made new highs during a time when the USDollar is teetering need only look to the official Euro Central Bank gold sales. Thanks to the Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) organization for their steady professional reporting on activity behind the scenes. Intrepid Blanchard reports the ECB sold a whopping 76 tonnes of gold bullion in the five weeks ending April 24-th, including 17 tonnes in the fifth week. That is a huge jump over their pattern in the last six months. They clearly waited for a time when the USDollar was exceptionally weak to dump gold. They call it dishoarding, in blatantly irresponsible fashion, since bullion is bank collateral for currency, the banking system, and their economy. These Keystone Gold Cops can only succeed in delaying the inevitable crescendo of a gold breakout. In the process they will destroy their currencys and banking systems. New highs for gold come soon!


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Dollar and oil can't keep going lower and higher like this for ever can they?
> 
> I suppose things can get worse in Iran.
> US money printing might need to swing into full stride to pay for another war.
> 
> On the other hand, if the Fed does not lower rates again as expected in Dec, I think there's every chance of another correction in POG. Or at least a knee jerk sell off...





Why not?, oil is being consumed faster than it is coming out of the ground and the amount of debt backing the US dollar seems to be getting larger everyday.

Look on the bright side Kennas, you can make a lot of money knowing and taking advantage of that.

Yes there will be down ticks in gold but the upticks are getting larger than the down.   The bulls have been in command of gold for six years now and the signs indicate that the big game is just beginning.

I dont (nor am I qualified to advise or to) make actual predictions, but if gold rises the same as the last week it will be in record territory.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Why not?, oil is being consumed faster than it is coming out of the ground and the amount of debt backing the US dollar seems to be getting larger everyday.



So, oil to $10000 a barrel and 1USD to 100Euro?

My comment is just a broad generalisation that there will be a bottom, and a top, somewhere. 

Maybe that's an incorrect assumption.


----------



## rederob

kennas said:


> So, oil to $10000 a barrel and 1USD to 100Euro?
> 
> My comment is just a broad generalisation that there will be a bottom, and a top, somewhere.
> 
> Maybe that's an incorrect assumption.




There already are established tops and bottoms.
But like record books, they are prone to new entries over time.

Oil is unlikely to be dollar denominated in the timeframe needed to hit $1000/bbl, let alone $10k.
However, while oil and gold are closely correlating, not being there for the ride might be a missed opportunity: Especially so while most other equity sectors are tanking.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> So, oil to $10000 a barrel and 1USD to 100Euro?
> 
> My comment is just a broad generalisation that there will be a bottom, and a top, somewhere.
> 
> Maybe that's an incorrect assumption.




Apologies Kennas;   I find some comments can be missleading to newcomers.  A lot of industry jargon and to some degree the philosophy deliberately, for vested interrests, sets out to keep economics confusing.  Having been burnt many years ago by expensive financial advisers I set out to  say things as I think they are exactly.  Choices are an individual thing, but setting out clear options is the greatest componenet of this forum.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Apologies Kennas;   I find some comments can be missleading to newcomers.  A lot of industry jargon and to some degree the philosophy deliberately, for vested interrests, sets out to keep economics confusing.  Having been burnt many years ago by expensive financial advisers I set out to  say things as I think they are exactly.  Choices are an individual thing, but setting out clear options is the greatest componenet of this forum.



None required explod. I am actually wondering if there can be a top in oil. If we don't find an alternative, and the stuff runs out, then maybe $10K is possible. I doubt it, economics necessitates that we find another form of energy, which though technology and human ingenuity, will solve the problem. Another big assumption.  Gold on the other hand will probably only keep going while it's associated with USD, geopolitics, and inflation. Once China takes over in the next 20-50 years, who knows...another big assumption


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> None required explod. I am actually wondering if there can be a top in oil. If we don't find an alternative, and the stuff runs out, then maybe $10K is possible. I doubt it, economics necessitates that we find another form of energy, which though technology and human ingenuity, will solve the problem. Another big assumption.  Gold on the other hand will probably only keep going while it's associated with USD, geopolitics, and inflation. Once China takes over in the next 20-50 years, who knows...another big assumption




Could not postulate on where oil could go.  However as it runs down I feel confident that alternatives will be found very quickly.  I have identified some good uranium companies for the change that will have to come in that direction even by the ALP.  (Google up "Safe Nuclear Energy")  

Gold has been a form of exchange since 700 BC and due to its value in the mind of mankind as a fair exhange for goods I believe that gold will continue to grow in value ad infanitum.   On the world stage gold is a very small market.  It has been made so by the system of fiat paper currency.   Whilst economies are healthy and strong that way seems to have been ok.   But as the biggest economy in the world is now backed by debt thier currency will implode to nothing as happened to Ancient Rome, Germany, South America and Mexico (the latter was bailed out by the IMF)

However who is big enought to bail out the US ??????

So gold is going to appreciate in value beyond belief.   Some extra attention could come this week if we get a close above the all time high (weekly close) of US$850 an ounce.

We shall watch with interest.


----------



## rederob

> Could not postulate on where oil could go. However as it runs down I feel confident that alternatives will be found very quickly. I have identified some good uranium companies for the change that will have to come in that direction even by the ALP. (Google up "Safe Nuclear Energy")



Hmmmm.......
Solar and wind might be able to fill the gap.
Nuclear is safe to produce, but not dispose - safe nuclear is akin to clean 
coal: We ain't there yet.
The real problem with nuclear, short term, is that you cannot get a power plant up and running in less than 5 years.  So, if oil has peaked, nuclear hasn't a chance in hades of filling the void for some considerable time.
Which brings me back to the POGOO correlation.
If it holds, then it's gold and black gold where we need to be.


----------



## So_Cynical

Gold is Gold...there are no alternatives.

Oil is Oil and theres lots and lots of alternatives....at some point soon, very very soon...the price of oil will be the 
undoing of the oil industry.

I mean u can make LPG very easily...u cant make Gold.


----------



## explod

Treading the foothills of a gold bull market (FT 11/5)
In recent weeks, as the gold price has approached the $800 level, the rate of increase in the price, the momentum of buying interest, has slowed, one sign that a correction in the uptrend could be at hand. Even so, the low volatility and low level of public interest both suggest that even with a short or intermediate correction, we are only in the foothills of the gold bull market.

Suppy/Demand may trigger quantum upward change in the gold price (Mineweb 11/5)
Credit Suisse suggests that supply and demand factors will make their presence felt to such an extent that they "could trigger a quantum upward change in the gold price, enough to sustain a new gold price/US$ equilibrium."... "Under these circumstances, the supply-demand imbalance will begin to accelerate at an ever-increasing pace into a net deficit, which in turn, will likely put significant upward pressure on the gold price."

[end quote]

Back on uranium,   I think as the energy problem becomes critical the building of Nuclear Power Stations will not only continue to improve but will be developed much faster.   Wind, wave of hot rock tecnology will go a long way but the big grunt power required 24/7 for heavy industry will be a hugh problem for some time.

As the earth dries out the power required for desalinisation plants will also be huge, to cite one prime example.


----------



## explod

Well worth thinking about, courtesy the Privateer newsletter:-

"Last week, as you probably know, the Gold price took two big falls. On a spot future basis, it fell $US 27.00 on Monday, November 12 and $US 27.40 on Thursday, November 15. That was news. This week, Gold rose nearly $US 50 in three trading days and rose $US 26.10 on November 23 alone. That was not news, not in the US at least if one gleans one's news from the main media outlets." 
[emd quote]

The keepers of fiat currencies are going down the tubes, if you want to back your family and preserve your wealth make them get out of debt in any form and invest in solid bullion and blue chip gold stocks.  Now that is not advice but just the way I think.  And I have been wrong many times before


----------



## rederob

So_Cynical said:


> Gold is Gold...there are no alternatives.
> 
> Oil is Oil and theres lots and lots of alternatives....at some point soon, very very soon...the price of oil will be the
> undoing of the oil industry.
> 
> I mean u can make LPG very easily...u cant make Gold.



If you can back this up, then I might be able to respond.
As it is, there are few alternatives to refined crude oil in terms of cheap, transportable energy.
Of the hundreds of millions of transport vehicles on the road, a minute fraction run on LPG.
There are dire substitution effects that have to be taken into account.
As it stands, oil is destined for a very strong run north in coming years.
Gold might lead or follow, but is unlikely to "disconnect" from the trend.
If, as you suggest, oil goes down the gurgler then I suggest you seriously think about getting out of gold.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> If you can back this up, then I might be able to respond.
> As it is, there are few alternatives to refined crude oil in terms of cheap, transportable energy.
> Of the hundreds of millions of transport vehicles on the road, a minute fraction run on LPG.
> There are dire substitution effects that have to be taken into account.
> As it stands, oil is destined for a very strong run north in coming years.
> Gold might lead or follow, but is unlikely to "disconnect" from the trend.
> If, as you suggest, oil goes down the gurgler then I suggest you seriously think about getting out of gold.





"Getting out of gold"  I do not  get the logic in what you are saying here.  Of all things, gold is an exchange for all goods, not just oil.

Would be most pleased to understand your rationale in this.


----------



## So_Cynical

rederob said:


> If you can back this up, then I might be able to respond.
> As it is, there are few alternatives to refined crude oil in terms of cheap, transportable energy.
> Of the hundreds of millions of transport vehicles on the road, a minute fraction run on LPG.
> There are dire substitution effects that have to be taken into account.
> As it stands, oil is destined for a very strong run north in coming years.
> Gold might lead or follow, but is unlikely to "disconnect" from the trend.
> If, as you suggest, oil goes down the gurgler then I suggest you seriously think about getting out of gold.



At some point oil will be so expensive that there will be an industrial shift away from oil...ive high lighted the word "cheap" in the quote....all petrol driven cars can be easily converted to run on LPG or NG...in a few hours...

1 day oil will be as worthless as a horse, gold will never ever see this day....

Both Gold and Oil are Finite thats true...however there is no alliterative/substitute for gold.


----------



## ithatheekret

Central Banks *still* use gold to complete transactions .

Why is the answer to the worth of gold .


----------



## rederob

So_Cynical said:


> At some point oil will be so expensive that there will be an industrial shift away from oil...ive high lighted the word "cheap" in the quote....all petrol driven cars can be easily converted to run on LPG or NG...in a few hours...
> 
> 1 day oil will be as worthless as a horse, gold will never ever see this day....
> 
> Both Gold and Oil are Finite thats true...however there is no alliterative/substitute for gold.



You clearly miss the point.
There is a massive substitution effect if what you propose were to occur, with LPG demand then blowing out incredibly in price as demand cannot be met.
You are right in that when a finite resource disappears (and oil will disappear while more gold is surfacing every day) it will be worthless.

explod
I suggested to Mr Cynical that, by implication, if he believes gold will disconnect from oil (ie the rising trend), then he should quit gold.  My view is that for some years to come POOOG will correlate closely.  Moreover, I believe that POO's rising price will be a major determinant of POG's in the near years - not vice versa.


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> Moreover, I believe that POO's rising price will be a major determinant of POG's in the near years - not vice versa.



Rob, you don't believe that the inflationary effect of rising POO will have a positive effect on POG?


----------



## rederob

kennas said:


> Rob, you don't believe that the inflationary effect of rising POO will have a positive effect on POG?



Questions framed in the negative can't get a right answer.
If I said "yes", what do I believe?
If I said "no", what am I saying no to?

I am saying I expect oil prices to rise substantially higher in years ahead.
I am saying that I expect gold will correlate closely.
I have no view on inflationary effects vis a vis oil and the above correlation.
I expect gold to be trading in the $1000 range in 2009 - maybe earlier (but that is not my preferred forecast).


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> Questions framed in the negative can't get a right answer.
> If I said "yes", what do I believe?
> If I said "no", what am I saying no to?
> 
> I am saying I expect oil prices to rise substantially higher in years ahead.
> I am saying that I expect gold will correlate closely.
> I have no view on inflationary effects vis a vis oil and the above correlation.
> I expect gold to be trading in the $1000 range in 2009 - maybe earlier (but that is not my preferred forecast).



My technical understanding of the English language isn't that great, but the question was open and could be answered in any way you like I thought.  You only had to answer with a yes, or a no, and a brief explanation, or none. 

It's generally considered that rising POO has an inflationary effect and gold is used as a hedge against inflation. That's why I framed the question as I did because you stated that rising POO would have an inverse relationship to POG. I thought you said that anyway.



> I am saying that I expect gold will correlate closely.



So, correlate as in go up?


----------



## rederob

kennas said:


> My technical understanding of the English language isn't that great, but the question was open and could be answered in any way you like I thought.  You only had to answer with a yes, or a no, and a brief explanation, or none.



I believe you got a concise answer from me.



> It's generally considered that rising POO has an inflationary effect and gold is used as a hedge against inflation. That's why I framed the question as I did because you stated that rising POO would have an inverse relationship to POG. I thought you said that anyway.
> 
> So, correlate as in go up?



I'm struggling to see where I said POO and POG had an inverse relationship.
I postulated a continuing close correlation, which means that POO and POG will move in similar directions - up or down. In the near years I say its "up".

In relation to your comments about inflationary effects, you really have answered part of the question that we base the close correlation on: Oil rises, inflation increases, more gold is bought - so gold rises.
But that is not my thesis.
In other threads when I talk about oil, I base the price argument on simple supply and demand.  
We could make it more complicated, but the nub of the issue relates, as I see it, to oil having no present price barrier (until demand destruction kicks in), and gold enjoying the ride.


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> I'm struggling to see where I said POO and POG had an inverse relationship.



LOL. I misread you. I thought you said rising POO would have a 'detrimental' effect on POG, but you said 'determinant'.  I need glasses! 

Apologies. I'm off to the eye doctor.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> LOL. I misread you. I thought you said rising POO would have a 'detrimental' effect on POG, but you said 'determinant'.  I need glasses!
> 
> Apologies. I'm off to the eye doctor.




The oil problem has had and will continue to have its effect on gold but in the bigger picture it is a mere side issue.   The falling value of currencies across the board are the real issues; and at this time the falling US dollar the particular one.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> The oil problem has had and will continue to have its effect on gold but in the bigger picture it is a mere side issue. The falling value of currencies across the board are the real issues; and at this time the falling US dollar the particular one.




Oil blow off top ahead? I think we might see some action with profit taking in oil soon as oil stocks are not following oil higher. What will be interesting will be how far gold will correct with it. Another top up chance? The final disconnection maybe?

So we could have a scenario where oil tanks (pardon the pun) due to the coming US recession and a global contagion, followed by or concurrent with hard asset appreciation eg gold price past inflation adjusted highs eg $2000 plus with a flight to safety?

Gold will do even better in a deflationary environement.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

.............Mr Faber highlights gold as his top investment pick in a world of frothy markets. 

“…while I find the gold price to be currently somewhat overbought, I still think that gold will be one of the best investments over the next couple of years.” 
However, the contrarian investor points out he only recommends gold because of the special monetary circumstances that global investors find themselves in. “I wish to add that I am not a gold bug. I would much prefer to live in a world in which central banks’ top priority was to safeguard paper money’s purchasing power and its function as a ‘store of value’.â


----------



## Kauri

This count is looking more incorrect as the days roll by, however breaking down the 2orB wave gives a=c currently... so if it is going to retreat it should be around here somewheres??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> This count is looking more incorrect as the days roll by, however breaking down the 2orB wave gives a=c currently... so if it is going to retreat it should be around here somewheres??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



Too early to say if this is an abc or a W3 but I have covered my longs and gone over to the short side... as an old girlfriend used to tell me.. let it develop..
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> ... as an old girlfriend used to tell me.. let it develop..
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




She was into charting too... was she??


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> She was into charting too... was she??




 Pretty big on Rate of Change indicators from memory..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

Although the gold price has levelled out it has held on to its postition in spite of the drop on the US markets overnight.   Some consolidation here woudlbe very healthly prior to another launch at the all time high area.

The volumes on bullion sales continue to increase in the face of fear from currency weaknesses.

However gold stocks will follow markets down to some degree so current positions need to be considered in my humble opinion.


----------



## Kauri

Getting to an interesting stage methinks...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Getting to an interesting stage methinks...
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Damn, it's gone short again. 

Wow, this is loosing it's development pretty bad


----------



## So_Cynical

I thought it when like the longer it stays above support ($800) the
more solid the support becomes.

It ill bounce.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> I thought it when like the longer it stays above support ($800) the
> more solid the support becomes.
> 
> It ill bounce.




Yep the bounce has occurred.  They hit in light trading to try and impede its progress but nothing can stop the continued return of gold to its true value


----------



## Miner

Dear Explode
Nice graph and the metaphor.
What is the true value of gold and by what time frame ?
Also do you or any one can suggest if gold can be bought similar to an option of shares ? That is paying only part of it with no obligation to buy if the price falls ?

Regards

Miner


----------



## Kauri

IG Markets... either they know something we don't...or???  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

That bounce is looking a bit... dead cat.


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> That bounce is looking a bit... dead cat.




 My cat is still curled up asleep..   
Now if only there was a way to arb it...  
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## explod

Miner said:


> Dear Explode
> Nice graph and the metaphor.
> What is the true value of gold and by what time frame ?
> Also do you or any one can suggest if gold can be bought similar to an option of shares ? That is paying only part of it with no obligation to buy if the price falls ?
> 
> Regards
> 
> Miner




I have no crystal ball.    On an inflation adjusted basis gold's (1980 @US$800) value is said by a majority of gold analysts to be about US$2,300 per ounce.

The key to gold has always been its connection to money (the currencies)  The US dollar is on a servere downtreand and because thier currency is no longer backed by gold ,rather, massive and increasing debt, some commentators are saying that gold will far exceed the above figure when more people come to realise the financial dilemma facing the US.

A lot of people are moving money into bonds at the moment which they believe to be safe.  In 1931-32 bonds (even AAA) became wallpaper as institutions and companies, both private and government, defaulted.

The only certain protection back then and now is the holding of physical gold or the carefull selection of gold stocks.

As far as the cat bounce and the currrent gold price is concerned, the higher volatility merely indicates to me greater buying and selling pressures---equals increased interest---equals very good consolidation.

On my last 31 year cycle chart we could expect a very large uptick in gold from about the 5th to the 12th of /december till about the 15th of Jan08.

Another strong up peak area is early Feb.

As also mentioned by Uncle Festivus I am not a gold bug either.  However I study this area at the moment for the financial well being of my family.  In the pipeline for the future I watch energy, particularly uranium.


----------



## Kauri

Now the difficult part... working out where to place the stop to allow for a possible W4 without giving too much back...   unless of course if the whole count is out of whack and then it doesn't matter..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Now the difficult part... working out where to place the stop to allow for a possible W4 without giving too much back...   unless of course if the whole count is out of whack and then it doesn't matter..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





Looking back Kauri, on your chart beginning this month we see considerable support around the US$800, if this holds we should be able to regard it as a major support area going forward.    IMHO

In many of the recent weeks following strong previous weeks we have seen weakness in the following Monday and Tuesday's.   The rise last week was whilst US markets were preoccupied with their holiday last Thursday.   They like to put their authoritative stamp back on when they return.   Will be intresting to see how much longer they can do that.  Prabably awhile yet as the gold market is still a fairly minor one in the bigger financial pot.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Short on spot Gold,

Entry 801.85

Kauri u catch that fall on the euro vs usd? was a nice trip.


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Short on spot Gold,
> 
> Entry 801.85
> 
> Kauri u catch that fall on the euro vs usd? was a nice trip.



  Yep, just posted the rumours about it on ...oh dear.. the USDJPY thread..    
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> Short on spot Gold,
> 
> Entry 801.85
> 
> Kauri u catch that fall on the euro vs usd? was a nice trip.




Closed my short at 792.20 :car:


----------



## Kauri

powered through the 1.6 line... just might be turning now around the 2.62 mark... have set my stop above the 50% ret of what I see as W3... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> powered through the 1.6 line... just might be turning now around the 2.62 mark... have set my stop above the 50% ret of what I see as W3...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



She has made it to the min W4 area... now to see if it pulls up there..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## refined silver

Trade it.

Why didn't you go long at $792 instead of just closing a short? Au is now up $14 from the low in about 5 hours.

If you keep trying to short a bull you'll get your head handed to you. Why not buy the dips and sell on strength, instead of trying to pick tops and sell before it reverses? In a bull market the surprises and biggest moves are always to the upside.  Much more chance of profits, and larger ones.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

refined silver said:


> Trade it.
> 
> Why didn't you go long at $792 instead of just closing a short? Au is now up $14 from the low in about 5 hours.
> 
> If you keep trying to short a bull you'll get your head handed to you. Why not buy the dips and sell on strength, instead of trying to pick tops and sell before it reverses? In a bull market the surprises and biggest moves are always to the upside.  Much more chance of profits, and larger ones.




LOL thanks for the trading advice, I'll keep it in mind.

I took a very nice chunk out last night in just over 1 hour.... so no complaints here....

if my little system tells me to go long i will take it. last night it told me to go short simple as that.


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> LOL thanks for the trading advice, I'll keep it in mind.
> 
> I took a very nice chunk out last night in just over 1 hour.... so no complaints here....
> 
> if my little system tells me to go long i will take it. last night it told me to go short simple as that.



 Trade It...
 Sometimes you can't do right for doing wrong..   
 Have drawn in a tentative W4 type triangle (on the hourlies)... unfortunately have to go to _see_ the eye doctor this morning so may miss a pyramid.. IF it plays out...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

Trade_It said:


> LOL thanks for the trading advice, I'll keep it in mind.
> 
> I took a very nice chunk out last night in just over 1 hour.... so no complaints here....
> 
> if my little system tells me to go long i will take it. last night it told me to go short simple as that.



In your defence, it's the counter trends that give you the results quicker. So if you take into account time cost, they can be better trades... Plus you get quicker confirmation/ invalidation.


----------



## refined silver

Trade It

My apologies. I hadn't seen your entry point an hour before. If you are trading the 60second bar chart my advice was pretty irrelevant. No such things as bull markets and bear markets there.


----------



## explod

Nick Radge said:


> *BOTTOM LINE *
> 28/11:
> EW Trend: Up (?)
> Price Trend: Up
> Trend Strength: Strong
> Broker Consensus: n/a
> 
> *TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
> 28/11:*
> VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 49 secs)
> *LAYMANS:* It was discussed in the last review (19/11/07) that Gold usually rallied into the end of the month of November before declining again in early December. This last surge higher probably got the bulls interested again but I feel they're about to be cleaned out over the coming weeks. I would not be surprised to see Gold reverse back toward $750, perhaps lower. The recent advance from September has been nothing of extraordinary, in fact such a parabolic advance has only occurred three times since 1980 and of the first two there was a dramatic selloff; one of 44%, the other of 23%. If we're to see a reversion to the mean in this instance we may see Gold back at $700.
> *TECHNICAL:* How do we measure a parabolic rise compared to a healthy rise? What I did was take the 200 day moving average and plot it against price itself. I then went back to 1980 (the start of my data) to determine what was extreme, i.e. greater than 3-standard deviations from the mean, and what was normal. Normal was a reading of 50 or below. Extreme was a reading of 100 or higher. In 1983 Gold hit an extreme reading of 113. The following few months saw prices drop over $200. In 2006 the reading hit 144 followed by a price collapse of $165. The recent peak was 136. The fall to follow? We'll be seeing soon enough I guess. From an Elliott Wave perspective the corrective movement is also yet to run its course. Yes we had a 3-wave counter trend rally but time wise it was simply not long enough and price wise, not deep enough, to be considered complete. As such the best interpretation is that we've completed a wave-B high and we'll now see a 5-wave impulse down to complete wave-C - maybe as far as $720 being the major support where prices broke out from back in September.
> 
> *TRADING STRATEGY*
> *28/11: *
> I'm not suggesting the long bull run in Gold is done. Far from it with the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates. What I am suggesting is that we're more than likely going to see a very healthy corrective movement before prices continue higher again. The obvious ploy here is put options or at least tightening stops on long Gold positions.
> 
> 
> _This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._




Cannot agree with your certainty Nick and it will be interesting to see what pans out.  The very ominous reaction to a further possible Fed rate cut by the stupendouse reactions by the Wall Street Indexes is but a part.

The past recent rate cuts have been followed wothin a few days by further weakness in the US$ index.   The last 12 months - see following post.

Gold responded in the opposing on the last Fed cut to US$835.00   Since then we have had considerable volotility but, I would argue within that, good consolidation with the down ticks correcting very quickly.

I enclose the 12 month and 5 year gold charts as the picture paints the story best.     This bull market trend is in early stages and betting on large corrections at this juncture could be an error.


----------



## explod

Unfortunately the chart intended would not transfer over .

From a January high of .85 there has been a consistent down trend to the current level of .755        

Of interest is the fact that it is at the top of the down channel at a time when the issue of a further rate cut is being factored in.

Just my humble opinion and have been wrong before.


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> Cannot agree with your certainty Nick and it will be interesting to see what pans out.  The very ominous reaction to a further possible Fed rate cut by the stupendouse reactions by the Wall Street Indexes is but a part.



Failing to take out that high on this run is short term bearish. I closed my gold trade out yesterday (I hate gap downs off highs), but it is quite a way from the short term trend lines, and I will be back in there...


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> Trade it.
> 
> Why didn't you go long at $792 instead of just closing a short? Au is now up $14 from the low in about 5 hours.
> 
> If you keep trying to short a bull you'll get your head handed to you. Why not buy the dips and sell on strength, instead of trying to pick tops and sell before it reverses? In a bull market the surprises and biggest moves are always to the upside.  Much more chance of profits, and larger ones.





It depends entirely on your goals and trading style RS. 

Some here a are short term swing traders who trade the market both ways, move by move, others are happy to hold. 

There is no right or wrong way, just different styles. If Trade It is good enough to do it consistantly, then I say good luck to him.

Cheers


----------



## Whiskers

I'm still trying to get a handle on some numbers for my musing about the direction of gold.

I reckon the hourly (our time not NY ) gives a target around $784 from a bearish pennant. 

If it closes the week under $789 we will have an engulfing bearish weekly candle and that says a down week next week.

Any critique?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wavepicker said:


> It depends entirely on your goals and trading style RS.
> 
> Some here a are short term swing traders who trade the market both ways, move by move, others are happy to hold.
> 
> There is no right or wrong way, just different styles. If Trade It is good enough to do it consistantly, then I say good luck to him.
> 
> Cheers




Thanks WP,

very true no mater what time frame or style you trade as long as you have a green sheet at the end of the week is all that matters.

was a short term trade that payed off.

Gold, still looks rather negative on the short term, see what happens around that previous low if it makes it there.


----------



## refined silver

Any analysis of the Au price without $US index analysis is useless. Last two days Au has been an exact mirror image of $US down to the minute, (only times 10 in amplitude). To suggest Au is going down, you must also hold that the $US dollar is heading up. 

With further Fed rate cuts likely, many Countries seeking to get out of US denominated reserves, TIC reports in US going negative the last two months(capital inflow not sufficient to fund Current Account deficit), not to mention what the credit crunch and bank write downs are going to do to tax revenues - further blowing out the budget deficit,  putting more downward pressure on the US dollar, it looks like spitting into a hurricane betting that the $USD will rise.

While technically oversold, the US dollar chart looks like Enron, with similar fundamentals.


----------



## Kauri

Just on charts alone I am still short... missed opportunity to pyramid on the W4 ( at the eye doctors and not here to _see_ it).. if this current leg gets past the recent W1 low around 791 theni22 w*^^
C  s
.  a i


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> theni22 w*^^






Could you translate for me please Kauri? (That's if it's not too naughty!) 

What sort of problem do you have with your eyes, Kauri?

I had in impact injury in one and eventually had it removed. Got a prosthesis in it now. 

That fools people. They think I'm normal.


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> Could you translate for me please Kauri? (That's if it's not too naughty!)
> 
> What sort of problem do you have with your eyes, Kauri?
> 
> I had in impact injury in one and eventually had it removed. Got a prosthesis in it now.
> 
> That fools people. They think I'm normal.



 Hi whiskers
               Eyes are apparently OK, they have been worried about Glaucoma but it seems I naturally have shallow, wide cupped optic nerves... apparently.  
               Sorry, can't remember what I was saying there.. the batteries on the wireless keyboard decided to giveup... I think that I want POG to drop down below 791 odd so I can bring my stop down to the/my?? latest W2 from the current W4 to lock in some of the profit..  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## bean

Kauri said:


> Just on charts alone I am still short... missed opportunity to pyramid on the W4 ( at the eye doctors and not here to _see_ it).. if this current leg gets past the recent W1 low around 791 theni22 w*^^
> C  s
> .  a i



yes we have gold where to gold bugs why should it drop gold has done nothing wrong.  The financial markets are wrong but we suffer.
What I see and what I subscribe to to see may  differ....I am in cash as off two days ago but I do have buys on stocks yet to be filled.
I believe the stocks will drop and the general gold stocks will rise and be the one.
However being a silver investor first... silver stocks have done nothing...a bottom close in silver???????????????


----------



## ithatheekret

I wonder how the metal will react to this rate cut miracle . I'm amazed they are going to cut , should of done it in last Jan. but that means nothing to them .

I listened to a replay of the address by Bernanke and it makes me wonder what  really is the catalyst forcing their hand .

I've listened to the previous addresses too , and can't see what has changed his view .
I think the catalyst is an intention , an intention to placate and relax the stockmarket and take the jitters away , unfortunately , that won't become a reality until the only growth in double digits isn't a countries M3 position or China .
All I've seen is a mass entry into China by many companies and banks , but on the flipside to that China is actually in a self inflicted recessionary position . By that , I refer to the immediate effect the latest ruling on asset recording has had . ( noting every analysts bagging of NAB and the US bank purchase , one chap saying they should be concentrating on China ) .

There's plenty of time for China the collective recently assured that with the asset recording ruling .

The US Fed maintained a position and set to  course on an agenda , that has inflated every tyre on the block , then they've tried to stop the rolling chassis dilema . They've jumped up and down at Chinas toes about a peg "THEY" ( the Fed ) set in the first place .

Bit like the position on the Yen option , eventually it will collapse under the weight of the market or be powered on by credit , only to find it has another fight on its hands later .

Except that Yen play looks like a state bank by the wedges carved out ... a German one would fit the M.O. ( my Ockhams razor again )
I cackled when I heard the German Finance Minister go on about snooty bankers , when German State banks were more heavily immersed in the subprime dilema , than most European banks ................

In the light of day you would expect at least a sincere respect of market forces by these professionals , yet barely does a day go by without one of their stuff ups hitting the headlines . It's like they've been saving up the bad news for a rainy day and someones told them there's a storm . Well wait till this months PCE rattles them ...........


----------



## Whiskers

I made a little Boo Boo in the previous chart. I was focusing on an end of week number and took the open close prices instead of the range. I also missed a little leg up in the pole. All in all it didn't change the target much. Revised no $787.5.

Looks like a new bearish pennant forming. Could see a target around $780. 

Also engulfing bearish candle. Looks like next hour or so will be down too.


----------



## Kauri

bean said:


> yes we have gold where to gold bugs why should it drop gold has done nothing wrong. The financial markets are wrong but we suffer.




Mr Bean,
           Just love your humour..   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Woops there she goes $787 

EDIT: Actually it got to $786.47 by me.


----------



## So_Cynical

We are most definitely in a down trend...all the momentum is downward.
perhaps some bargains to be had on Monday.

The double steep peak on the chart is sorta unprecedented..uncharacteristic.


----------



## Kauri

No guarantees but if my E/W holds up she should be looking at the low 770's... initially anyway...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

So_Cynical said:


> We are most definitely in a down trend...all the momentum is downward.
> perhaps some bargains to be had on Monday.
> 
> The double steep peak on the chart is sorta unprecedented..uncharacteristic.



Looks like a nice double top in the making. Breaking 780 and I have a target of 740 ish which happens to coincide with support after 760 ish....Is probably a fib retractment point as well.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Looks like a nice double top in the making. Breaking 780 and I have a target of 740 ish which happens to coincide with support after 760 ish....Is probably a fib retractment point as well.




One of the great things I like about the point and figure chart is that it gives a good idea of past behaviour.  I would not rule out further correction now but there is good support at this level and on the past behaviour the uptrend is still intact.

[chart courtesy the Privateer Newsletter]


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> One of the great things I like about the point and figure chart is that it gives a good idea of past behaviour.  I would not rule out further correction now but there is good support at this level and on the past behaviour the uptrend is still intact.
> 
> [chart courtesy the Privateer Newsletter]



Yes there is and I hope it holds in some sence. Still, POG can correct much further to remain in a healthy uptrend. Your P&F chart is showing the support levels quite clearly.


----------



## Nick Radge

explod,



> betting on large corrections at this juncture could be an error.




and



> I would not rule out further correction now




Both within a day. You coming or going?


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> but there is good support at this level




Hello explod,

can you please elaborate, why is there good support at this level, is it of any significance? 

Cheers


----------



## explod

Nick Radge said:


> explod,
> 
> 
> 
> and
> 
> 
> 
> Both within a day. You coming or going?




I was a bit savage Nick,   "large" the operative word,  later fell through a support which altered my stance.  I am often wrong but wish I was not so dogmatic about it.


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> Hello explod,
> 
> can you please elaborate, why is there good support at this level, is it of any significance?
> 
> Cheers



There's not support at 780-90 ish? 


Breaking 790 ish may confirm a double top, sending it to 740 by my guestimate. 

As always, no TA will be proven correct until after the fact. 

Prove, disprove, prove, disprove, that you're too late.  

Each to their own.


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Hello explod,
> 
> can you please elaborate, why is there good support at this level, is it of any significance?
> 
> Cheers




Since October 29 the US$780 level has been tested on 6 occasions, this is the 7th so a break below it would be significant.

After the all time high on the 25th April 1980 the US$780 level was a point of resistance on 3 occasions that year.   In my view the consolidation above this level SHOULD remain firm.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> There's not support at 780-90 ish?
> 
> 
> Breaking 790 ish may confirm a double top, sending it to 740 by my guestimate.
> 
> As always, no TA will be proven correct until after the fact.
> 
> Prove, disprove, prove, disprove, that you're too late.
> 
> Each to their own.




If that is the case then, it's been disproven hasn't it??? Gold broke 780 last run down with a low of 772??


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Since October 29 the US$780 level has been tested on 6 occasions, this is the 7th so a break below it would be significant.
> 
> After the all time high on the 25th April 1980 the US$780 level was a point of resistance on 3 occasions that year.   In my view the consolidation above this level SHOULD remain firm.





Fair enough explod, but as mentioned in the last post to kennas $780 got broken on the last leg down($772.65), so what now??

I tend to favour Nicks evaluation of the situation quite favourably.

Cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Fair enough explod, but as mentioned in the last post to kennas $780 got broken on the last leg down($772.65), so what now??
> 
> I tend to favour Nicks evaluation of the situation quite favourably.
> 
> Cheers




Yep, see your point.  I do not factor intra day price levels.  To me the closing price of US$783 indicates the support has held.

Although I day trade, rarely do I open and close a trade within days as I suspect many of you do.  So from that point our perspective may be different.

For Nick, I missed an answer to his quiry on my position.  I am long physical bullion (a 2 year position now) and I reduced half of my long trade positions  (in gold stocks) last Thursday.

I try to let the market tell me where to go.  (W D GANN)


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> No guarantees but if my E/W holds up she should be looking at the low 770's... initially anyway...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




I got another bearish pennant on the hourly suggesting $762. 

Can't see further ahead than that yet other than the weekly engulfing bearish candle which suggests a generally down week.


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> If that is the case then, it's been disproven hasn't it??? Gold broke 780 last run down with a low of 772??



It's only just slipped through briefly on Friday by my charts, so it hasn't really been disproven yet. Might depend on a definition of 'broken' even if it did go to $772 as well. Was that an 'inta day' price? Futures, or spot? I've found intraday prices less reliable for support and resistance. I wouldn't call and exact $780 price as the breakdown point either. I think the low in the trough was actually $776.50, so, thereabouts. The double top, still looks a possibility to me. Of course, just a probability. I'm still a long term investor in a couple of gold stocks. Whatever happens to the price between now and the Fed meeting, I expect them to cut again which should push the price back up, unless it's already factored in. I don't think 50 could be factored in, so there may be more upside in that eventuation.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> It's only just slipped through briefly on Friday by my charts, so it hasn't really been disproven yet. Might depend on a definition of 'broken' even if it did go to $772 as well. Was that an 'inta day' price? Futures, or spot? I've found intraday prices less reliable for support and resistance. I wouldn't call and exact $780 price as the breakdown point either. I think the low in the trough was actually $776.50, so, thereabouts. I'm no way up to the stage, like you might be, of precise prices and times, and I'm yet to actually see it being done consistantly by anyone before the fact. The double top, still looks a possibility to me. Of course, just a probability. I'm still a long term investor in a couple of gold stocks. Whatever happens to the price between now and the Fed meeting, I expect them to cut again which should push the price back up, unless it's already factored in. I don't think 50 could be factored in, so there may be more upside in that eventuation.




The price I quoted was spot.  I am not a big fan "holding/breaking" of so called support levels of prices as many of these on many occasions they end up as false breaks.  

Looks like Gold is heading lower from here, by how much no sure. Double tops rarely stop uptrends for good and I would expect this high to be broken even marginally.

Will be interesting to see what happens from here, if this market goes into a sideways consolidation, then this could precede the last push up before a major correction but not the long term bull trend.


----------



## Sean K

Just Asian trade, but has bounced off $780 _ish _ for the minute. Obviously needs some higher lows and highs to get out of this downward/sideways move. Factors effecting the price have turned the other way of course so a couple of things need to change in my mind for POG to resume the uptrend. I think a 25 point cut is almost factored in right now, so a 50 point cut will boost POG. Oil has come off the boil and if anything else occurs to reduce supply then that will add to support. And then there's geopolitics. Need Iran to wave a nuke about or something similar. If we get the perfect storm, POG will be breaking all time highs again.


----------



## Whiskers

Hasn't broke down yet, but still trading pretty much in a bear flag channel. 

I think on the fundamentals it's inevitable that it will soon though. Just might take another couple of revised down numbers from the US to do it.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Hasn't broke down yet, but still trading pretty much in a bear flag channel.
> 
> I think on the fundamentals it's inevitable that it will soon though. Just might take another couple of revised down numbers from the US to do it.





If the numbers go down in the US the dollar will contiue its fall which will drive up gold.    Have I missed something here.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Just Asian trade, but has bounced off $780 _ish _for the minute. Obviously needs some higher lows and highs to get out of this downward/sideways move. Factors effecting the price have turned the other way of course so a couple of things need to change in my mind for POG to resume the uptrend. I think a 25 point cut is almost factored in right now, so a 50 point cut will boost POG. Oil has come off the boil and if anything else occurs to reduce supply then that will add to support. And then there's geopolitics. Need Iran to wave a nuke about or something similar. If we get the perfect storm, POG will be breaking all time highs again.




Hi Kennas,
             Early days yet but I'm with you... until I'm not that is..   good being a tad contrarian.. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Hi Kennas,
> Early days yet but I'm with you... until I'm not that is..   good being a tad contrarian..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Why is it good to be a tad contrarian.  How do we measure that, is it caution or just the idea that one should go against the old bugger so to speak because he is uncool.

I try to help or should I just go away.  All of your recent posts Kauri have been to push anything I put forward aside.   What  have I done to offend you.   cheers explod


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Why is it good to be a tad contrarian. How do we measure that, is it caution or just the idea that one should go against the old bugger so to speak because he is uncool.
> 
> I try to help or should I just go away. All of your recent posts Kauri have been to push anything I put forward aside. What have I done to offend you. cheers explod




 Sorry to have inadvertently offended you, but to be quite honest I haven't even noticed your posts.    What seems to be the problem??


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Sorry to have inadvertently offended you, but to be quite honest I haven't even noticed your posts.    What seems to be the problem??




You have not answered the question, 'why is it good to be a tad contrarian?'.

I find it interesting that you have not noticed my posts.  I find it essential to take in all posts because it helps in the overall decisions reached, which are then better informed decisions.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> You have not answered the question, 'why is it good to be a tad contrarian?'.




Because *I* find it profitable in the main, when my basic charting indicates that a trend change is possible and at the same time most people have finally lined up with the existing trend... some of my best trades have resulted...



explod said:


> I find it essential to take in all posts because it helps in the overall decisions reached, which are then better informed decisions.



*I *find the opposite, I have confidence in my own analysis, other peoples opinions, apart from noting the herding instinct, don't interest me.



explod said:


> I find it interesting that you have not noticed my posts.



Really, as my old father used to tell me when I got too big for my boots... "_Son,you would be amazed at the number of people who really don't care what you think_ .. "


explod said:


> I try to help or should I just go away. All of your recent posts Kauri have been to push anything I put forward aside.




My opinions are just that... my opinions... if they don't happen to align with yours, so what.. don't you think it is some kind of arrogance to assume that I am framing my trades around what you think??


----------



## explod

Kauri, I frame my trades around every single piece of information from whatever source.  I am fundamental and technical, and opinion also has its effects and benifits.  To be otherwise is to be elitist and naive.    If I post on a thread I try to take in that which has already been expressed so as not to repeat.  I think I owe that to the intelligence of those others.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Kauri, I frame my trades around every single piece of information from whatever source. I am fundamental and technical, and opinion also has its effects and benifits. To be otherwise is to be elitist and naive. If I post on a thread I try to take in that which has already been expressed so as not to repeat. I think I owe that to the intelligence of those others.




 Fine...whatever it takes to spin your crank..
 but back to your original complaint... rest assured, your posts/opinions do not in any way affect the way I trade.. (which incidentally is what my posts are, real time posted trades without a hint of hindsight), to me, to put it politely, other peoples posts/opinions  are irrelevant... Like it... or lump it..


----------



## wavepicker

Kauri said:


> Because *I* find it profitable in the main, when my basic charting indicates that a trend change is possible and at the same time most people have finally lined up with the existing trend... some of my best trades have resulted...





Hello Kauri,

Totally agree with your comments here and share a very common approach, in fact the basis of many of my trades are based on sentiment amongst other things.

Quite often obvious thinking-or thinking commonly leads to wrong judgements and wrong conclusions.

Contrarian thinking/trading can be a difficult concept to grasp for many, going against the herd can really have you asking yourself "Am I doing the right thing here when everyone else seems convinced this trend has one direction?" It can play havoc on your psychology.

You are quite right, your own analysis is what matters, and pretty much everything(other posters comments) need not be considered for your trading except for one thing. If you make a post and provide analysis, and other posters emotionally oppose what you have put forward, chances are that you are probably sitting on a good trade. 

Many of the best trades I have made(as yourself and others) have been from a contrarian stance.

*IT PAYS TO BE CONTRARY* 

Cheers


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> If the numbers go down in the US the dollar will contiue its fall which will drive up gold.    Have I missed something here.




Hi explod.

I meant profit forcasts... and or more write downs. Thinking along the lines of the credit crisis still hasn't run full course. 

Noticing little things like previous economic numbers being revised for the worse and a view that some commentators aspouse that even the US gov is fudging the figures a bit to soften the blow. I believe the Bush administration has got more concerned about worsening developments coming into election year and is having meetings with people to try to soften the impact of the problem.

I guess my natural personality is a bit contrarian too, but still a long way to go to match the technical skills of Wavepicker, Kauri, Nick and others. 

I'm appreciative of any critique... to see what I can glean from the experts and laymen alike, cos sometimes no matter how good we think we are at our job, sometimes a casual observer can notice something relevant that is outside the box of our thinking.

Just looking at the chart again, it's taking a while to make a break. That bear flag has been breached a bit top and bottom. Not looking so tidy anymore.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Hi explod.
> 
> I meant profit forcasts... and or more write downs. Thinking along the lines of the credit crisis still hasn't run full course.
> 
> Noticing little things like previous economic numbers being revised for the worse and a view that some commentators aspouse that even the US gov is fudging the figures a bit to soften the blow. I believe the Bush administration has got more concerned about worsening developments coming into election year and is having meetings with people to try to soften the impact of the problem.
> 
> I guess my natural personality is a bit contrarian too, but still a long way to go to match the technical skills of Wavepicker, Kauri, Nick and others.
> 
> I'm appreciative of any critique... to see what I can glean from the experts and laymen alike, cos sometimes no matter how good we think we are at our job, sometimes a casual observer can notice something relevant that is outside the box of our thinking.
> 
> Just looking at the chart again, it's taking a while to make a break. That bear flag has been breached a bit top and bottom. Not looking so tidy anymore.




Apologies, your outlook is good.   It is all a matter of context and I for one can become too wrapt up in my own view.

The gold price since its high last month has been very volatile.  After such a climb (US$200 from the August low,  the largest single rise in this bull run) it is to be expected that profit takers and the currency protectors would move in.  The fact that it has not made a large retracement speaks volumes for buying interest and investment support.   Although volatile I regard the levels of late as sideways consolidation.  It may tonight through to Wednesday move down to US$760 but it will turn up again quickly due to the sheer force of investment interest and the growing doubts for the US economy and its weakening currency.


----------



## barrett

Hey guys, it's unclear from my data feed whether or not spot gold has broken through the upper channel boundary of its 1 week downtrend, can anyone confirm? (&can anyone recommend a good source for gold price charts based on continuous data? I am using bullionvault.com which is good live data but includes the weekends so difficult to chart ongoing trends from week to week.)  Thanks for any tips guys,
Barrett


----------



## Kauri

Have now closed out all of my short gold and am *starting* to build on the long side, will add if and when my analysis indicates...
  On the 60 min chart both the longer(green) and shorter(black) waves have both reached what I consider to be normal W5's and are showing signs of turning, although it is early yet.
  On the daily I was originally expecting a drop into $750 and lower area, which hasn't come about... yet???. Also W2's don't form triangles..normally... However I can live with the current picture as for one the correction from the last upleg from June through November has corrected the best part of 35%.. along with other indications that I use... all point to a change, wether long or short term I don't know...
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank said that it sold 42 tons of gold on Friday, in conformity with the central bank's gold agreement of which it is a signatory. That agreement limits combined annual sales by E.U. central banks to 500 tons a year until 2009.




{Alert - bored rant follows?}

So, a simplistic analysis implies that it takes 42 tonnes of gold 'dumped' to suppress the price about, say $80 max? Seems to have been easily absorbed by the market. Then again, there is some talk out of gold jewellry consuming nations (India & Dubai) that the high price has subdued demand. Price setting continues to be investors and/or speculators so maybe at the bottom of the consolidation range? Taking some entries on selected juniors at these levels.

Longer term, gold/oil ratio disconnection taking place, or trying to break out to the historical average of 17.5 bbl's per ounce, which would mean gold to go higher or oil to go lower? I would guess we could get both if recessionary fears are founded, and US interest rates continue to be priced in to be effectively zero, al la Japan style deflationary scenario, & the $US resumes it's death spiral.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but pog made a higher low, according to Kitco charts, which is bullish again? Leading into the rate cut next week - 25 or 50 bp's?


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Fine...whatever it takes to spin your crank..
> but back to your original complaint... rest assured, your posts/opinions do not in any way affect the way I trade.. (which incidentally is what my posts are, real time posted trades without a hint of hindsight), to me, to put it politely, other peoples posts/opinions  are irrelevant... Like it... or lump it..




Sorry Kauri, missread what was happening, did not mean anything personal.  I try to anticipate what is going to happen from fundamental events which works well for me.  The following type reports give me leads:-


"The Morning Gold Report by Peter A. Grant
Gold Soft Within the Recent Range
December 03, a.m. (USAGOLD) -- Gold is maintaining a soft tone within the recent range on weaker oil and a steady to firmer dollar. However, short term support at 775.00/772.65 remains intact at this point.

While the dollar seems to have found at least temporary support, the Gulf States continue to call for their currencies to be depegged from the greenback in order to squelch soaring inflation in the region. Such a move would further deteriorate the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. This could happen as soon as today or tomorrow. A resumption of the dominant downtrend in the dollar would probably push gold back above $800.

Inflows into the euro in recent months have been considerable, sparking plenty of talk that the euro may be the next reserve currency. However, the truth of the matter is that Europe is not in any better shape than the United States. In fact there has been talk lately that the EU may resort to "1970s era" exchange controls to halt the rising euro. This may indeed become necessary if the Gulf States break their dollar pegs as the resulting surge in the euro would probably put 1.5000 back in play versus the dollar. If this where to happen, the impact on Britain would be disastrous and could well lead to their withdrawal from the EU.

However, getting the members of the EU to agree on monetary policy if a crisis does ensue will be no small task. A recent blog at the Telegraph.co.uk described the EU as, "an arranged marriage of squabbling tribes, speaking different languages, who do not love each other, and never did." With confidence in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium plummeting, Euribor rates soaring, liquidity drying up, it isn't a pretty picture across the pond either.

On top of all that, EU foreign policy was dealt a blow last week when efforts to find a solution for the Kosovo issue failed. It is now likely that Kosovo will declare independence from Serbia sometime after 10-Dec. While both sides have declared they will not resort to violence, this region has quite an extensive history as a geopolitical hot spot. With the euro not necessarily the safest of havens and the prospect for rising tensions, gold could well be the major beneficiary.

Resource Investor reports that large commercials have reduced their net short positions in the futures over the past three weeks. Author Gene Arensberg says, "and strong to very strong dips for the metals themselves should be bought in measured, incremental bites, ahead of the next tsunami of new wealth into precious metals."

With support in gold at 775.00/772.65 intact, a case can still be made for a symmetrical triangle pattern. Dips earlier in the European session that approached this level sparked some buying interest, but 800 must be regained to ease short term pressure on the low end of the triangle pattern. Such a move would return focus to 815.20/35 level, which is seen as the trigger for renewed attacks on the critical 845.55/850.00 highs." [end quote]


----------



## Kauri

My interest is perking up a touch...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank said that it sold 42 tons of gold on Friday, in conformity with the central bank's gold agreement of which it is a signatory. That agreement limits combined annual sales by E.U. central banks to 500 tons a year until 2009.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> {Alert - bored rant follows?}
> 
> So, a simplistic analysis implies that it takes 42 tonnes of gold 'dumped' to suppress the price about, say $80 max? Seems to have been easily absorbed by the market. Then again, there is some talk out of gold jewellry consuming nations (India & Dubai) that the high price has subdued demand. Price setting continues to be investors and/or speculators so maybe at the bottom of the consolidation range? Taking some entries on selected juniors at these levels.
> 
> Longer term, gold/oil ratio disconnection taking place, or trying to break out to the historical average of 17.5 bbl's per ounce, which would mean gold to go higher or oil to go lower? I would guess we could get both if recessionary fears are founded, and US interest rates continue to be priced in to be effectively zero, al la Japan style deflationary scenario, & the $US resumes it's death spiral.
> 
> Correct me if I'm wrong, but pog made a higher low, according to Kitco charts, which is bullish again? Leading into the rate cut next week - 25 or 50 bp's?
Click to expand...



I can't dissagree with you there Uncle Festivus.

I recall that the US were behind on their gold sale quota, up to I think September. I wonder whether they still have excess quota to sell and when might they do it?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> I recall that the US were behind on their gold sale quota, up to I think September. I wonder whether they still have excess quota to sell and when might they do it?




If they do have what they say they have, I would have thought now would be a good time to show their hand. GATA estimate that they are due to run out of price suppressing gold supplies right about now?


Shadowstats tells the true story - M3 out of control, inflation double the official rate, the US already in recession?

http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data

PS looking to break $800 again tonight, see if it gets smacked down in NY trade?


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> My interest is perking up a touch...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



A tad shallow for a W2 but I need to hang my stop somewhere...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## rederob

Whiskers said:


> I can't dissagree with you there Uncle Festivus.
> 
> I recall that the US were behind on their gold sale quota, up to I think September. I wonder whether they still have excess quota to sell and when might they do it?



What is this  US "gold sale quota"?
The US is not signatory to the EU Central Bank God Agreement of 2004.
The US can dump or lease gold to its heart's content.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> What is this  US "gold sale quota"?
> The US is not signatory to the EU Central Bank God Agreement of 2004.
> The US can dump or lease gold to its heart's content.




I would be interested to hear from yourself or others what bullion reserves the US still have?      And in the face of the increasing demand, what power to still bring to bear on the gold price?

After the last US holiday (week or 2 ago) I noticed gold went up and when the US came back on the Monday (in light trade) it was pushed back down


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> A tad shallow for a W2 but I need to hang my stop somewhere...
> Cheers
> ........Kauri



Now have W1orA = W3orC potential, so stop is now closer still to the action... on my shorter time-frame trades that is...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

rederob said:


> What is this  US "gold sale quota"?
> The US is not signatory to the EU Central Bank God Agreement of 2004.
> The US can dump or lease gold to its heart's content.




I'll try to find the article, rederob.

As I recall it was for the period ending last September, but rolling over again. I seem to recall the article particullarly mentioning Portugal, Germany and the US. I also seem to recall that it was a more recent agreement or ammended agreement to address the imbalance with the falling $US and rising Euro and consequential understanding that the situation was not good for either of them.


----------



## explod

I am going to stick my neck out and it almost always gets chopped off.....and say that gold in the next few weeks will hit around the US$1000 mark.

Based on my reading of learned pundits/anaylysts, fundamentals and technical indications.

Any other bids.  I went 100% long gold stocks today.  RSG the most responsive in the past was my main purchase.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> I am going to stick my neck out and it almost always gets chopped off.....and say that gold in the next few weeks will hit around the US$1000 mark.
> 
> Based on my reading of learned pundits/anaylysts, fundamentals and technical indications.
> 
> Any other bids.  I went 100% long gold stocks today.  RSG the most responsive in the past was my main purchase.




Anything is possible int he market, but I don't see $1000 in the next few weeks. Perhaps $900 would be more acheivable in that timeframe.

I see this current juncture very differently. There is a chance this is a 4th wave tracing out here. It might be a contracting triangle(we will know in the weeks ahead if it consolidates further).  A fourth wave contracting triangle always precedes the last move in an impulse. However 5th waves are known to extend on occasion in commodities because buy tends to be more "fear based" rather than hope based.

I am actually looking at the opposite trade to you once that 5th wave is finished, as 5th waves are built ultimately on psychological euphoria, not fundementals. IMO next year the bears will get their turn again, Gold bugs can go into hibernation for while again.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Now have W1orA = W3orC potential, so stop is now closer still to the action... on my shorter time-frame trades that is...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



Just hanging in at the moment..  will be taken soon  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## SGB

explod said:


> I went 100% long gold stocks today.  RSG the most responsive in the past was my main purchase.




I was wandering who was driving this stock up today. LOL
Good to see you jump aboard this stock explode. Although we don't get much volumn the spreads are pretty good.


----------



## explod

SGB said:


> I was wandering who was driving this stock up today. LOL
> Good to see you jump aboard this stock explode. Although we don't get much volumn the spreads are pretty good.





Maybe the growing weight of demand:-

[qiote]

SHANGHAI: Chinese demand for gold jewelry may increase by about 20 percent this year as rising personal incomes help the nation race ahead of the United States as the second-biggest market in the world, GFMS, a researcher, said.

Gold use in jewelry in China jumped 24 percent from a year earlier to 221 metric tons in the first nine months, a GFMS analyst, Veronica Han, said from Beijing on Monday, citing data compiled for the World Gold Council. That compares with 515 tons in India, the biggest consumer, and 165 tons in the United States.

Increased jewelry purchases by consumers in China and India may help to support the price of gold, which reached a 27-year high of $845.84 an ounce on Nov. 7 and is headed for its seventh annual gain.

"More economic development in China and a relatively higher savings ratio than that of India should in the long-term drive gold demand in China," Stephan Schlatter, the executive director for metals markets in Asia at UBS, said.

A stock market and property boom helped to raise disposable incomes among urban households in China by 13.2 percent in the first nine months of this year when adjusted for inflation. Retail sales rose by 18.1 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest in eight years, the statistics bureau said Nov. 14.

Today in Marketplace by Bloomberg

Dollar's plunge brings hardship to African cotton farmers

ThyssenKrupp shares fall despite profit rise

Florida officials approve plan to salvage investment pool
"China is poised to become the world's second largest jewelry market for gold this year, overtaking the United States and coming in No. 2 behind India," Philip Klapwijk, the executive chairman of GFMS, said by phone from Parati, Brazil. "I would expect it to grow further" in 2008, he added.

"We expect gold use in China this year to greatly exceed last year's level, with rising standards of living and some policy changes to encourage gold holdings by the public," Hou Huimin, a vice president of the China Gold Association, said in early November. Hou did not give details.

Even "with less aggressive growth in the fourth quarter," Chinese sales of gold are expected to increase by about 20 percent in 2007, GFMS's Han said. The GFMS estimate of gold use in jewelry excludes supply from scrap.

China has increased minimum wages, expanded welfare payments and reduced interest-income tax to fatten the wallets of its 1.3 billion consumers, who have a growing taste for luxury items like cars and jewelry.

"Upgrading of the retail environment and greater product varieties" helped gold demand, Klapwijk said. "The Year of the Pig also helped." This year's lunar New Year, the Year of the Golden Pig, is deemed auspicious for gold purchases.

"Almost everything has gone right for gold jewelry demand to pick up," said Klapwijk. "You had a perfect environment."

Chinese buyers have not been deterred by a 24 percent gain in gold prices this year as a slumping dollar and surging oil prices fueled demand for an alternative investment and hedge against inflation. Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $791.04 an ounce in Singapore on Tuesday.

Higher prices have lifted shares of producers like Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining and Newcrest Mining.

"Our long-term view is positive on Chinese demand," Klapwijk said. Still, growth of gold use in jewelry in the fourth quarter may slow, and the pace may also slacken next year if monetary policies aimed at curbing inflation reduce the rate of economic expansion, he said.

Chinese economic growth may cool to 10.8 percent in 2008 from an estimated 11.4 percent this year as investment and export growth slows, economists from the State Information Center said.

China may continue to face inflationary pressure next year, and the central bank should raise key interest rates, according to a report published Monday, which forecast inflation at 4.5 percent for 2008 from 4.7 percent this year.

 [unquote]


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> Anything is possible int he market, but I don't see $1000 in the next few weeks. Perhaps $900 would be more acheivable in that timeframe.
> 
> I see this current juncture very differently. There is a chance this is a 4th wave tracing out here. It might be a contracting triangle(we will know in the weeks ahead if it consolidates further).  A fourth wave contracting triangle always precedes the last move in an impulse. However 5th waves are known to extend on occasion in commodities because buy tends to be more "fear based" rather than hope based.
> 
> I am actually looking at the opposite trade to you once that 5th wave is finished, as 5th waves are built ultimately on psychological euphoria, not fundementals. IMO next year the bears will get their turn again, Gold bugs can go into hibernation for while again.
> 
> Cheers




Hmmm.......
Most immediate upside to $920 cap in my books, but not soon at all - likely in late Jan/Feb.
Present consolidation is a little unusual given some large intraday swings: No strong break with carry through for more than a few days.
Unless you are trading with a fast finger, then I think watching is the safer ploy.
I might be tempted to top up some goldies if POG gets back under $750 for a few days, otherwise will let ride what I have.
The only aspect of wavepicker's analysis I would disagree with for now is that I still see oil and POG running a coalition ticket.  That being so, downside is very likely to be capped, while upside is equally likely to  ratchet higher as greed feeds from the welling trough of subprime safe harbour.


----------



## barrett

What a messed up day on the gold markets, two false breakouts, and maybe god only understands what the gold price has done in the past three hours.  Opinions anyone - is the weird market action over the past three hours bullish or bearish for the coming day?  Personally I see it as being bearish since today's long pennant was broken to the downside, but I may be wrong.

Wavepicker I am seeing the same wave count as you.  Once this fourth wave is over I am going milk the fifth for all it's worth.


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> What a messed up day on the gold markets, two false breakouts, and maybe god only understands what the gold price has done in the past three hours.  Opinions anyone - is the weird market action over the past three hours bullish or bearish for the coming day?  Personally I see it as being bearish since today's long pennant was broken to the downside, but I may be wrong.
> 
> Wavepicker I am seeing the same wave count as you.  Once this fourth wave is over I am going milk the fifth for all it's worth.





I have no problems with the gold price because I take a long term view.   Gold is in a strong confirmed bull run because it is the most effective defence agains the loss of currency value.    The answers and the story behind the ascendency of gold has been explained and repeated very well during the entire course of this thread.   It is well worth reading over.

The chart speaks for itself


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> I have no problems with the gold price because I take a long term view.   Gold is in a strong confirmed bull run because it is the most effective defence agains the loss of currency value.    The answers and the story behind the ascendency of gold has been explained and repeated very well during the entire course of this thread.   It is well worth reading over.
> 
> The chart speaks for itself




I have pestered everyone I know to buy gold, especially friends and relatives in the US, since August of 2004.  If they read this forum they would see how the long term gold bull market you described is never in question. 

But when you are trading futures or cfds because of the leverage it can be important to find a good entry point, to avoid big losses.  That's a big reason why you may be confused at how some seem hung up on the short term market action.  

I have to give you credit for being bullish on gold August-Oct when I was -short-term- bearish.  I got it wrong.  I did keep 60% of my portfolio in gold and silver stocks and for the most part it paid off.


----------



## Miner

Dear Goldies
Please advise if it is time to buy bullions or just gold shares. WIth gold shares there will be many good and dud where as bullion could only go north or south. I will listen the experts.
Regards

Miner


----------



## So_Cynical

Its an amazing chart, the curve just gets steeper...the only place left to go is straight up...assuming the 7 year trend continues.

Miner..theres many value gold stocks....and as i pointed out in another thread, some gold stocks have outperformed Vs ASX:GOLD

How could any so called trend follower not be all over this?


----------



## ithatheekret

explod said:


> I am going to stick my neck out and it almost always gets chopped off.....and say that gold in the next few weeks will hit around the US$1000 mark.
> 
> Based on my reading of learned pundits/anaylysts, fundamentals and technical indications.
> 
> Any other bids.  I went 100% long gold stocks today.  RSG the most responsive in the past was my main purchase.





On the USD front alone I have $880 ( expecting higher ) , but not until the end of year sell off and the new year sell off are complete . Haven't you ever noticed the small cap goldies get hit in the Chrissie lead up and squatted in Jan/Feb . 
Please don't take this as investment advice , I'm just stating an observation I had noted each time the greater market looks weak and the cyclical events noted .

Perhaps this time round it will be different , given the subprime "crisis" , panic and hysteria   , banks are going to lose money ....... ohoooh fees are going up

But the pessimistic ( sarcastic even ) side of me doubts anything will change except for the share prices in banks


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So_Cynical said:


> Its an amazing chart, the curve just gets steeper...the only place left to go is straight up...assuming the 7 year trend continues.
> 
> Miner..theres many value gold stocks....and as i pointed out in another thread, some gold stocks have outperformed Vs ASX:GOLD
> 
> How could any so called trend follower not be all over this?




With reference to the chart question - it look's to me like a parabolic.

But we have not as yet reached any sort of manic stage, rather a general nonchalance among the general investing population. It's all a bit ho hum while ever the 'establishment' markets are generally not tanking. Getting used to 200 point daily ranges in the Dow, 100 pts on the XJO and $20 daily range in gold.

It will probably take a sustained pog above a record high before the 2nd phase starts in earnest. Buying the dips.


----------



## Whiskers

The basic premise of my earlier musing about the future of the gold price has been an unfilled parallel of the Aug retreat. Maybe there is now some evidence and weight to that premis afterall.

If my thinking is correct we will revisit the mid 700's fairly soon.

As I mentioned initially it was largely based on my mental evaluation of fundamental and psychological factors in a somewhat meditation state. What stuck out in my minds eye was 'parallel', but I could not precisely put a figure or time on it. Could we be getting closer! 

Any critique?


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> The basic premise of my earlier musing about the future of the gold price has been an unfilled parallel of the Aug retreat. Maybe there is now some evidence and weight to that premis afterall.
> 
> If my thinking is correct we will revisit the mid 700's fairly soon.
> 
> As I mentioned initially it was largely based on my mental evaluation of fundamental and psychological factors in a somewhat meditation state. What stuck out in my minds eye was 'parallel', but I could not precisely put a figure or time on it. Could we be getting closer!
> 
> Any critique?




I should have translated those lines to the Aug period. 

Did here, not the exact same lines but same principle.

Coincidence... or is there some charting logic?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Whiskers said:


> The basic premise of my earlier musing about the future of the gold price has been an unfilled parallel of the Aug retreat. Maybe there is now some evidence and weight to that premis afterall.
> 
> If my thinking is correct we will revisit the mid 700's fairly soon.
> 
> As I mentioned initially it was largely based on my mental evaluation of fundamental and psychological factors in a somewhat meditation state. What stuck out in my minds eye was 'parallel', but I could not precisely put a figure or time on it. Could we be getting closer!
> 
> Any critique?




I'm a bit interested in this meditation thing too - a few years ago when the pog was around $300 I visualised a counter for the gold price counting up at a rapid rate. Not sure if it means much but sometimes I think there is a case for psychic investing or 'gut feel'???

As for the chart, another view is that it has minor & major triangles with support at $780?, similar to the big consolidation phase before the breakout. So maybe some consolidation, but still at these elevated levels, until/or if $780 breached convincingly, but still support levels lower which would still keep the secular bull intact?

Maybe Wavepicker/Kauri can project some times, looking to be next year at least for another major break - up or down?


----------



## Kauri

I don't currently hold a position in gold but as always am watching for an opportunity... my longer term picture (as of today...could change tomorrow  ) is on the charts.. *to be tempered by the fact that I have only seriously been using E/W for around a year now *... 
also on the fundemental side to be considered I guess is that the UK/Euro zones seem to be approaching a crisis of sorts whilst miracuously the US reckons it is now doing OK!!! Mind you the ADP figures that initially fired up the euphoria and put risk back on the table are notoriously misleading as a guide to NFP figures I think, so Friday is the day for me for possible gold direction, in fact most markets direction... I think.... or was that thought..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Its an amazing chart, the curve just gets steeper...the only place left to go is straight up...assuming the 7 year trend continues.
> 
> Miner..theres many value gold stocks....and as i pointed out in another thread, some gold stocks have outperformed Vs ASX:GOLD
> 
> How could any so called trend follower not be all over this?




Many pundits consider a correction is on the cards and this may pan out.

On the bull run to date the down trend line is at US$680 so the current level is well clear of that.

The other aspect to be cautious of is that the Christmas period over the last 31 years has been notoriously volatile for the gold price.    From about the 5th December to the 5th of Janauary over the last 31 years we have seen 13 x 12 month highs and  18 x 12 month lows.  So there is more than a 50% chance of a 12 month low and roughly a 36% chance of a 12 month high.  A 12 month low would be a US$50 break below the bull run trend line.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.   

Next year perhaps I will work out a GANN graph of the last 32 years for all the corrency fluctuations etc for a better fundamental take on it all.   

Yer gotta be jocken-un-les-yer-payin


----------



## DreamSciTech

Can I post a chart based on my analysis because I am particularly interested in the pattern analysis?

DreamSciTech


----------



## So_Cynical

DreamSciTech said:


> Can I post a chart based on my analysis because I am particularly interested in the pattern analysis?
> 
> DreamSciTech




Knock your self out dude....

Yes post away.


----------



## DreamSciTech

Thanks! 

I consider that pattern should repeat itself, thus I invented this mid- and long-term trend for stock analysis. 

The upper panel is the gold price until December 5 2007, which is difficult to see the repetition. However, in the low panel of this Chart, we can see that the blue line has the repeated patterns.

Now the blue line is approaching to the average mid- and long-term trend line (pink line). When the blue line goes down, the price of gold goes down too. On the other hand, the history does not show that the blue line had stopped around the pink line, which means that the gold price will go down. However, the important point is that the thickness of blue line already spans several trading days.

Using this approach, I am particularly happy that I predicted the rebounding of stock market in another site on November 25, based on the closing price of Dow Jones on November 23. Since then Dow Jones has up 450 points.

dreamscitech.com


----------



## DreamSciTech




----------



## So_Cynical

LOL @ the Bird flu pandemic...seriously i was right into the possibility's of 
that, did a couple of days research and almost brought CSL 
(just before the august correction)...Punting on a vaccine bubble how terrible is that.

It never occurred to me that Gold would do OK out of the pandemic madness as well.


----------



## barrett

Good on you for posting it but not sure about this bit,


DreamSciTech said:


> When the blue line goes down, the price of gold goes down too.




eg. in Jan 04, again in Nov 04, gold heading up strongly, blue line plummeting.


----------



## explod

Now that is getting volatile.   Not saying it will go higher this morning but these fast upticks show someone is keen to fill up on the dips.  And the oil price at the same time has dropped further also.  Dollar only slightly down.  Dow Up.   ??????

We had world peak oil in 2005 but someone said a few days ago that oil production will be increased.   Some believe it.   Oil cartels are acumulating gold.        SOME DO NOT BELIEVE IT.


----------



## barrett

Yeah this is wild.  I guess we could expect a $20 rise in 3 hours after US mortgage delinquencies rose to a 20 yr high.. and it's not just hitting the subprime but also the prime..  this'll make it difficult for the Fed not to cut rates on Tues, maybe by 0.5.  It's the perfect storm for gold when Feds around the world are forced to cut rates at a time when food and energy prices have just gone sky high and inflation is hotting up, here's hoping POG tanks to $740 for no particular reason so I can buy 10 contracts! :santa:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Spot Gold testing 800 owch! 

Nick......

Great call and great analysis.

The USD/CHF was great fun for the last 48 hours......... see what happens from here.


----------



## Sean K

Gold still coiling, waiting for a decision point to make a trade one way or the other. 

Short term breaking down 800 is a short, upside 805 a long.

Medium term you can see the _general _ S&R levels. 

My hunch is it's going down for some reason even though the Fed is going to drop rates.....so my 'hunch' is probably wrong. I'm sure EW has the answer...


----------



## DreamSciTech

Hi barrett

Thanks for your comments, however I check the data, which shows that the blue line was going up in the time you identified. I attached data.xls for your interests.

You can download our data on this chart as well as Dow Jones, and other indexes from our site

dreamscitech.com


----------



## wavepicker

DreamSciTech said:


>





Hello Dream,

Your approach seems to incorprate a Detrended Centered Moving Averages by the look??

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge

In my experience, large triangles, such as we're seeing here, that form after a parabolic rise tend to fail to the downside as opposed to the trend-continuation theory. 

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we've now got the wave-A and -B in place. Wave-C tends to unfold in 5-waves of which we may have -i and now -ii. Any move above $839.50 (basis Dec) would invalidate and any move below the lows of earlier this week suggests wave-iii is unfolding and puts us on course for the targets discussed in post #2309.


----------



## DreamSciTech

Hi, Wavepicker

Thanks for your comments, sorry, I even do not know the Detrended Centered Moving Averages, and am now trying to use the google search to find its meanings.

On the other hand, I have my consideration. I think that one problem in stock type analysis is that we cannot find the clear pattern, thus we have to transfer the stock data into another domain, for example, moving average domain, wave theory domain, etc. to find the pattern. In my case, I did not transfer the data into any well-known domain, which does not calculate any average.

For your interests, I post another chart on silver, and you can download all the data from http://hongguanglishibahao.googlepages.com/ for comparison to determine whether there is Detrended Centered Moving Averages.

Have a great weekend

dreamscitech.com


----------



## bean

The chances are good that the US GOLD Indicies have put in a bottom.
Confirmation will be if they move up over next few nights.
They broke below medium support on wednesday night.  Last night moved them partly back in.  So a rise is needed for two night for them to break out  and start next leg up.
POG  would need to confirm


----------



## ithatheekret

I was thinking about gold and whether it had bottomed since the decline start that has been underway . As stated before I have $880 actually the area in my box is $870-$880 , for the first peak to be knock around , after that is $910-$920 , I won't state the next leg for fear of laughter ...........

But whilst these targets are perused bi-weekly , I am a little perplexed by the actions in the Copper / Gold ratio .

It has had me watching momentum , something I've learnt to do fanatically with forex , and I must state that I believe the weakness is not over , even though we have had a small spurt , which fell back a just over a fiver .

I hope the bugs don't get me wrong here , but I'm a bit of a bear at present , the price action being the catalyst .

I have $770 as an important area to watch and we are very close . A good hit below that could see $700 come into view quickly , the opposite direction has $810 to tackle . It also brings out my arguement on volume as an indicator , because the volumes going through have done nothing for the price action .

Having stated that I am bearish at present , it should also be stated that I believe this to be a bump along the road to that $1k zone .


----------



## Whiskers

Just looking at this on the weekend again, on the weekly chart that has got to be so close to rolling over to a sell signal. I am having a lot of trouble imagining that staying a buy this week.

The daily has been a sell for the last week or so and for me seems to be struggling to keep momentum.


----------



## GreatPig

A possible head and shoulders forming on the GOLD stock now?

Cheers,
GP


----------



## ithatheekret

If it could put on another $6-$10 and close above $810 , currently $795ish , I would see a happy koala , let's just hope POG hasn't been chewing the leaves to find itself without a branch when NY opens .


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> If it could put on another $6-$10 and close above $810 , currently $795ish , I would see a happy koala , let's just hope POG hasn't been chewing the leaves to find itself without a branch when NY opens .




Well on the way, gold as I write is US$810

However the more dramatic indicator to me is silver.  It is finaly showing bullish signs which leads gold on the major moves:-


----------



## Sean K

Gone long on POG break through $805. Look at more on break through $820 ish, initial stop $800.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Gone long on POG break through $805. Look at more on break through $820 ish, initial stop $800.



Hi Kennas,
             was going to post something relevant I thought, but it has slipped my mind at the moment...    
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> Hi Kennas,
> was going to post something relevant I thought, but it has slipped my mind at the moment...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



You've just gone short? LOL


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:


> Hi Kennas,
> was going to post something relevant I thought, but it has slipped my mind at the moment...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



LOL, almost Goldwynesque 



> * “Keep a stiff upper chin.”
> * “In two words: im-possible.”
> * “Don’t turn it into a flop!”
> * “Gentlemen, include me out.”
> * “They stayed away in droves.”
> * “Let’s have some new clichÃ©s.”
> * “There is a statue of limitation.”
> * “Tell them to stand closer apart.”
> * “Gentlemen, listen to me slowly.”
> * “That’s our strongest weak point.”
> * “A hospital is no place to be sick.”
> * "Elevate the cannons a little lower"
> * “Modern dancing is old fashioned.”
> * “The harder I work the luckier I get.”
> * “I read part of it all the way through.”
> * “Flashbacks are a thing of the past.”
> * “You fail to overlook the crucial point.”
> * “I paid too much for it, but it’s worth it.”
> * “I have been laid up with intentional flu.”
> * “God makes stars. I just produce them.”
> * “Our comedies are not to be laughed at.”
> * “He treats me like the dirt under my feet.”
> * “You’ve got to take the bitter with the sour.”
> * “A bachelor’s life is no life for a single man.”
> * “If I look confused it’s because I’m thinking.”
> * “That’s the kind of ad I like, facts, facts, facts.”
> * “What we need now is some new, fresh clichÃ©s.”
> * “This makes me so sore it gets my dandruff up.”
> * “What nerve. Not even a modicum of originality.”
> * “You’ve got to take the bull between your teeth.”
> * “I had a great idea this morning, but I didn’t like it.”
> * “It’s absolutely impossible, but it has possibilities.”
> * “Never make forecasts, especially about the future.”
> * “A wide screen just makes a bad film twice as bad.”
> * “For your information, just answer me one question!”
> * “For your information, I would like to ask a question.”
> * “Give me a smart idiot over a stupid genius any day.”
> * “A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.”
> * “Every director bites the hand that lays the golden egg.”
> * “Plenty of room for a tiny brain and a huge ego, though.”
> * “Don’t worry about the war. It’s all over but the shooting.”
> * “Can she sing? She’s practically a Florence Nightingale.”
> * “If I could drop dead right now, I’d be the happiest man alive.”
> * “The trouble with this business is the dearth of bad pictures.”
> * “Don’t pay any attention to the critics ”” don’t even ignore them.”
> * “Put it out of your mind. In no time, it will be a forgotten memory.”
> * “I’ll take fifty percent efficiency to get one hundred percent loyalty.”
> * “I never put on a pair of shoes until I’ve worn them at least five years.”
> * “Color television! Bah, I won’t believe it until I see it in black and white.”
> * “We have that Indian scene. We can get the Indians from the reservoir.”
> * “Let’s bring it up to date with some snappy nineteenth century dialogue.”
> * “I don’t think anyone should write his autobiography until after he’s dead.”
> * “I’m willing to admit that I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.”
> * “Anyone who would go to a psychiatrist ought to have his head examined!”
> * “Why did you name him Sam? Every Tom, Dick and Harry is named Sam!”
> * “Give me a couple of years, and I’ll make that actress an overnight success.”
> * “If I were in this business only for the business, I wouldn’t be in this business.”
> * “Go see that turkey for yourself, and see for yourself why you shouldn’t see it.”
> * “Pictures are for entertainment, messages should be delivered by Western Union.”
> * “When someone does something good, applaud! You will make two people happy.”
> * “That would doubtless be a dank and dark and a desolate and dreary place to dwell.”
> * “From success you get a lot of things, but not that great inside thing that love brings you.”
> * “I hate a man who always says yes to me. When I say no I like a man who also says no.”
> * “That’s the way with these directors, they’re always biting the hand that lays the golden egg.”
> * “I don’t want yes-men around me. I want everyone to tell the truth, even if it costs them their jobs.”
> * “I don’t care if it doesn’t make a nickel. I just want every man, woman, and child in America toe it.”
> * “Why should people go out and pay to see bad movies when they can stay home and see bad television for nothing.”
> * Whilst strolling through a friend's garden Sam happened upon a sundial. Having never seen one before he asked his host what it was and, upon being told, replied "whatever will they think of next?"
> 
> * “True, I’ve been a long time making up my mind, but now I’m giving you a definite answer. I won’t say yes, and I won’t say no ”” but I’m giving you a definite maybe.”


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> You've just gone short? LOL




   not short... more gone cautious... the last up-leg, if nothing else, is not as impulsive as the previous nlegs so to speak.... ummm... might be out-foxing myself nhere...   5 hours and the budgies wake up, a few questions for them today..
Chaaaaaaaaaaars
.................Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> not short... more gone cautious... the last up-leg, if nothing else, is not as impulsive as the previous nlegs so to speak.... ummm... might be out-foxing myself nhere...   5 hours and the budgies wake up, a few questions for them today..
> Chaaaaaaaaaaars
> .................Kauri




Cheep, cheep,,yaawn...

Since the spike about 8th November we see on the daily a pennant with overnight action showing the start of a break to the upside.

On the fundamental side a US interest rate cut could just be the catalyst to launch a shot at the US$850 resistance.  I think the .5 basis cut will occur even if just to divert attention from continuing bad company reports.


----------



## Whiskers

Gold just got whiplashed!

Could this be the start of the retrace back into the mid 700's?


----------



## Kauri

Everyone is waiting on the Us rate across the boards... the chart currently to me looks a little ominous.. has just pulled up a couple of dollars short of both a=c and 2= .62 ret of 1 ... 
 a bit of jockeying before the ann. and all will be revealed
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

I think a quarter point was factored in.


----------



## wayneL

kennas said:


> I think a quarter point was factored in.



Looking at the reaction, I think they had half a point factored in.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Everyone is waiting on the Us rate across the boards... the chart currently to me looks a little ominous.. has just pulled up a couple of dollars short of both a=c and 2= .62 ret of 1 ...
> a bit of jockeying before the ann. and all will be revealed
> Cheers
> ........Kauri



turned as (half) expected... wonder if the minor T/L will hold her...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

I'm sticking to my musing (and a little bit of a consensus here from estemed posters) , that the POG will go lower before the bull rears again... but it's not going down easy.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> I'm sticking to my musing (and a little bit of a consensus here from estemed posters) , that the POG will go lower before the bull rears again... but it's not going down easy.




Yep, I am stiking to mine also.   The US$800 is now gaining strength as a support area.    The dip this morning has again brought in the bargain hunters.  Gold followers are growing and now understand well the rhetoric of Wall Street.   Anyone betting on drops now are taking grave risk.

The gold bull run is acting as bull runs do.   The climb is up the wall of worry who only the brave and alert can hang onto.   The technical analysts see only the behaviour of the past in its isolation.  (not against t/a, I use it also)

The US financial collapse will turn their fiat currency into worthless wallpaper, and that is a certainty, the only issue is the timing. 

Any small corrections now will be but great buying opportunities.

However as has been said many times before, I feel sorry for the poor innocents who in the US are going into poverty because of the selfish corrupt few.    It takes the shine off the bullion and gold shares I hold, but family comes first and you have to survive to be of help to others.


----------



## Kimosabi

explod said:


> Yep, I am stiking to mine also. The US$800 is now gaining strength as a support area. The dip this morning has again brought in the bargain hunters. Gold followers are growing and now understand well the rhetoric of Wall Street. Anyone betting on drops now are taking grave risk.
> 
> The gold bull run is acting as bull runs do. The climb is up the wall of worry who only the brave and alert can hang onto. The technical analysts see only the behaviour of the past in its isolation. (not against t/a, I use it also)
> 
> The US financial collapse will turn their fiat currency into worthless wallpaper, and that is a certainty, the only issue is the timing.
> 
> Any small corrections now will be but great buying opportunities.
> 
> However as has been said many times before, I feel sorry for the poor innocents who in the US are going into poverty because of the selfish corrupt few. It takes the shine off the bullion and gold shares I hold, but family comes first and you have to survive to be of help to others.



We're not much different to the US, if it wasn't for our Resources we'd be staring down the barrel as well...


----------



## ithatheekret

$806 , little bit of strength in the futures , they'll do anything for liquidity  ............. I don't know yet , it looks good , but so did the waters off Darwin and the fish bit at a shiny hook there ....... big fish .

I'd rather go with the panic ..... I mean the flow , before I entered , but blowed if I'd be short .


----------



## explod

The the following hourly chart gives a good pircture of the volatility of the gold price.  Of particular interest in my view is the continued sharp recovery.  Considerable effort to push the price down but each time to no avail.  It will take only a small weakness in the $US and a rise in the oil price for a major gold break upwards.

Oil has returned to $90 and the dollar is showing signs of wekening as I write.

We will see what pans out.


----------



## Kauri

looks to reaching an interesting point... for me..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Miner

Dear Kauri
Thanks for your lovely graphs and pain to disseminate it.
As you would appreciate not every one is a whizard to interprete the graphs and you are doing so much favour to all of us . So why not articulate more in words 'what is so interesting in the graphical interpretation'? 
Is the gold price heading up or down ? Some thing for dummies to know.

Regards

Miner


----------



## bean

Miner said:


> Dear Kauri
> Thanks for your lovely graphs and pain to disseminate it.
> As you would appreciate not every one is a whizard to interprete the graphs and you are doing so much favour to all of us . So why not articulate more in words 'what is so interesting in the graphical interpretation'?
> Is the gold price heading up or down ? Some thing for dummies to know.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Miner




POG is in the middle...decision time if it move above US$820 today or tomorrow will be good below US$790 bearish.
POG is at crossroads.  Bullish and Bearish bias.
Some would have POG going down testing the mid US$760
The us gold index 'HUI' is a clue it held above 400 last night a 'close' below that may be bearish for a test of US$760.

'I am 100% in Gold and Silver stocks'  until either the above bearish situations come into place


----------



## Kauri

Miner said:


> Dear Kauri
> Thanks for your lovely graphs and pain to disseminate it.
> As you would appreciate not every one is a whizard to interprete the graphs and you are doing so much favour to all of us . So why not articulate more in words 'what is so interesting in the graphical interpretation'?
> Is the gold price heading up or down ? Some thing for dummies to know.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Miner




 The wave *a* retraced 61.8% of the last downleg, wave *b* retraced 50% of wave *a*, and wave *c* is just shy of 100% of wave *a*... all important Fibs...
If she gets through the a=c then the next point I am looking at is $817 which is 161% ret of wave *a*...
 Will it turn here, I don't know, although I doubt it, it all depends now on the rumours that are being strategically  FED to the market. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

$812 a close above or around there would be nice ..... above $810


----------



## Kauri

Miner said:


> Dear Kauri
> Thanks for your lovely graphs and pain to disseminate it.
> As you would appreciate not every one is a whizard to interprete the graphs and you are doing so much favour to all of us . So why not articulate more in words 'what is so interesting in the graphical interpretation'?
> Is the gold price heading up or down ? Some thing for dummies to know.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Miner




Miner
 and now we have the wave *c* at all but 162% of wave *a* I look for a wave *4* ret of between 38% and 50% of the previous wave... before possibly rallying into a *5*th wave... 
Hope this helps
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Miner

Kauri said:


> Miner
> and now we have the wave *c* at all but 162% of wave *a* I look for a wave *4* ret of between 38% and 50% of the previous wave... before possibly rallying into a *5*th wave...
> Hope this helps
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




That is great Kauri
To be honest probably with your intelligence you should be letting the guys at Goldman Sachs to suck their hollow brains. You would be an asset in any investment banker (you probably are already)
Very analytical and hats off to you mate - great work done.
I could see the Gold price will be at about $830 reading your graph signals

Regards


----------



## So_Cynical

LOL Miner

Kauri probably has an art degree...all them pretty pictures.:


----------



## ithatheekret

First cab off the rank to get hit was POG . Looks like it will be a bad day on US markets . It will be market weakness dollar strength , just to confuse everyone  

Get ready for a sea of red on just about everything , this is the , we'll take you down with us plunge for December .....  if this is the theme , then I would expect a small cap sell off in goldies to start ( already started ) and a follow through in Jan.


----------



## Whiskers

Yes, looks like the odds are more in favour of the south. For me it looks like testing support around $736.

Gotta get some shut eye... see what damage there is tomorra.


----------



## barrett

Yes, the two week uptrend in bullion looks over and the goldies aren't liking it, the HUI looks to have broken down out of its wedge and through 2-month support.  If the breakdown holds on market close I would take that as quite bearish for bullion in the coming weeks..  oo HUI now down 3.43% as I write..


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Harry Schultz speaks.....



> Shultz's latest letter, just in, is absolutely apocalyptical: "A financial tsunami is upon us," he says, caused by lax credit and complications introduced by Wall Street's derivatives craze.
> Among other interesting ideas raised by Schultz in his intense, somewhat terrifying introduction: recession, possibly depression; bank failures; exchange controls; housing prices down by 50%; credit card company failures; money market fund dangers; tripling of U.S. jobless numbers; federal bail-outs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
> 
> Schultz is a trader and his specific market advice is nuanced. He writes: "Direction of global stock markets uncertain. Balance stock holdings between long and shorts to counterbalance draw-down risks, and/or hedge exposure via puts, futures, or bear funds ... Exposure to gold shares and bullion should be a minimum of 35-45% of your total portfolio, with at least 10% in physical gold bullion and coins, and/or very rare coins ... "
> 
> On gold, he writes: "*The public is still not in the gold market*. They will be in 2008 as the derivatives and credit crises bring down more financial institutions (amid recession) and eyes will be opened, via pain. While Rome burns, gold will smash through its old unadjusted-for-inflation $850 high on the way to $1,600, & who knows how far beyond ..."




http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={B4657333-B68C-4A34-A493-266821FC09AB}

It looks like gold was sold off today because the horrendous inflation figures might make the Fed stop or reverse the interest rate easing policy. But gold might be entering the perfect storm phase - inflation rampant but housing showing no signs of bottoming. Bernanke & Paulson must pick the lessor of the 2 evils - contain inflation or stop the housing bust causing a full on depression. My guess is that the bigger problem is housing, so interest rates don't look like going up anytime soon, so good for gold. Buy the dips - like right now @ $794.


----------



## ithatheekret

That 17 dollar drop is suppose to scare the pants off of you .

The markets opened up and we went straight back to the 70's .

PPI ..... well we won't worry about that 

I know a song that fits the situation perfectly ............ 

Stuck in the middle with you .  



Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
I got the feeling that something ain't right,
I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am,
Stuck in the middle with you.

Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
And I'm wondering what it is I should do,
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,
Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

Well you started out with nothing,
And you're proud that you're a self made man,
And your friends, they all come crawlin,
Slap you on the back and say,
Please.... Please.....

Trying to make some sense of it all,
But I can see that it makes no sense at all,
Is it cool to go to sleep on the floor,
'Cause I don't think that I can take anymore
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

Well you started out with nothing,
And you're proud that you're a self made man,
And your friends, they all come crawlin,
Slap you on the back and say,
Please.... Please.....

Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
I got the feeling that something ain't right,
I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am,
Stuck in the middle with you,
Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
Stuck in the middle with you.


----------



## ithatheekret

Don't forget what Kudlow says ......... " There's no recession out there ".

MOOOHAAHAAHAAHAAAAA

Well fortunately Ruphert has just grabbed the WSJ , that should see an editorial and columnist restructuring . If only he would stop buying back News Corp. shares , as he thinks they're cheap ...... he could then buy CNBC and sack the wombats wasting oxygen on that planet .


----------



## wayneL

ithatheekret said:


> Don't forget what Kudlow says ......... " There's no recession out there ".
> 
> MOOOHAAHAAHAAHAAAAA



The same turkey that was a US dollar bull a year ago too.

Kudlow is a Neo-Con shill. Nothing more, nothing less.


----------



## ithatheekret

wayneL said:


> The same turkey that was a US dollar bull a year ago too.
> 
> Kudlow is a Neo-Con shill. Nothing more, nothing less.




Oh that's good I wish I'd thought that one up . 

So does that make Jim Cramer a lap dog or a dog lap ?

Sack him Ruphert and I'll subscribe just for something to read in the dunny !

Neo-con shill

Yep we're in the 70's


----------



## wayneL

ithatheekret said:


> Oh that's good I wish I'd thought that one up .
> 
> So does that make Jim Cramer a lap dog or a dog lap ?
> 
> Sack him Ruphert and I'll subscribe just for something to read in the dunny !
> 
> Neo-con shill
> 
> Yep we're in the 70's




Cramer? Cramer is a parody of himself.


----------



## Kauri

Miner said:


> That is great Kauri
> To be honest probably with your intelligence you should be letting the guys at Goldman Sachs to suck their hollow brains. You would be an asset in any investment banker (you probably are already)
> Very analytical and hats off to you mate - great work done.
> I could see the Gold price will be at about *$830 reading your graph signals*
> 
> Regards




With my intelligence I'd be lucky to get past an interview at McD's..   but nice thought anyways.. 
  On the daily I have been, in this thread, looking for mid to low $700ish for a couple of months now... all the rest is clipping a living from the smaller moves.. mainly using a 1orA/2orB setup and looking for the 3orC to be either 100% min of the 1orA... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

am running with a short ... tight stop... something to replenish the grog cupboard with...   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and the 4Hrly looks interesting... S/R's..T/L's...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Miner

Kauri said:


> With my intelligence I'd be lucky to get past an interview at McD's..   but nice thought anyways..
> On the daily I have been, in this thread, looking for mid to low $700ish for a couple of months now... all the rest is clipping a living from the smaller moves.. mainly using a 1orA/2orB setup and looking for the 3orC to be either 100% min of the 1orA...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Hi Kauri
Thanks for your modesty. Ironically you were right to say that you would not be qualified for a job in McD shop. If you show your graphs, analysis and cryptic comments to regular customers of McD who came to buy a burger and not a bullion : do you think they will understand you  ? They will disappear soon and so you will get a sack 

Mate why compete with those young school leavers at McD ?

Do what you are good at. Just expand your cryptic jargon  and speak in Plain English for dummies -that  would be great .

REgards


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> am running with a short ... tight stop... something to replenish the grog cupboard with...
> Cheers
> ........Kauri



 closed half... left rest on auto-pilot.. off to see what the local off licensce has to offer...  
Cheers
.........Kauri   :couch


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> closed half... left rest on auto-pilot.. off to see what the local off licensce has to offer...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri :couch




If the minor count is correct and we are in a wave5... due to the large wave3 it may not drop much below the wave3 low... or something... however..if the US reckons the shine is on their dollar then gold may tarnish more..
 minor talk that US banks may be bringing the dollar home to prop up balance sheets, but I'm not entirely sold on that.
  Cheers
...........Kauri
P.S.. the local off licensce had anice drop of Bushmills .. I had better sign off before I get too stupid...again.


----------



## Whiskers

:topic



Kauri said:


> P.S.. the local off licensce had anice drop of Bushmills .. I had better sign off before I get too stupid...again.




Why? Did you try them all... did ya?


----------



## Miner

Oh No! So much of fun and free entertainment in this forum specailly the photos of bushmills were real spice in Kauri's graphs. We have some genuii here.
Great to read them under the context of  a rather dry subject.
Bravo folks


----------



## Kauri

stop set.bed time for me..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

mmm that golden drink definitely on topic this weekend..

Technicians, I just noticed what might be a lopsided head and shoulders traced out over the past week, does this look potentially valid?


----------



## bean

HUI index a head and shoulders pattern as well?
I mention a few days ago could be bearish if HUI closed under 400
It has now closed the last two days under

Gold stock sare still tied to the hip of the general market?

Not POG going to US$560!!!


----------



## barrett

I guess the support line in this chart is the neckline of the head and shoulders.. the breakdown continued last night..

Stocks usually act ahead of moves in the metal - for reasons that no-one to my knowledge has been able to explain - but they nearly always do - and that would tie in with Kauri's and Nick Radge's forecasts for a breakdown to the low 700's.

On that subject I also notice that bellwether stocks for the silver sector (eg Silver Wheaton, Silver Standard) have copped big selloffs in the past two days and in doing so both broke below the necklines of their head and shoulders.


----------



## barrett

Meanwhile back at the barrick, anglogold etc. treasury offices... they still don't think gold is at enough of a bargain price to reduce their net short position to less than 200 000oz.. historically a very high level.  This also supports a short-term pullback in the gold price (I acknowledge they did short gold way too early in September - COT is very much a leading indicator and not very good for timing exactly _when_ the pullback will occur)..

And the XAU:gold ratio is at 0.209 - close to but not quite yet at buying level for gold stocks.


----------



## barrett

I am still waiting for the two time-tested signals to occur before buying more bullion, comex gold contracts and gold stocks:

1.  XAU:gold ratio drops below 0.19.  The strongest buy signal for medium to long term holders of gold stocks.  It usually forms a bottom a week or more before the low in the metal.

2.  Commercial COT net short position in gold drops below 60,000 contracts - buy signal for gold.  

If these conditions are met I will start to buy aggressively.  My guess is that (1) will take another week or two, and (2) maybe early January.

In the meantime it is hard to believe how gold and silver remain so poorly understood when the fundamentals for them are so clear.  Given the possibility for an unanticipated ‘black swan’ event I keep around half my assets in gold and silver stocks/bullion even when short term bearish.


----------



## ithatheekret

You have to stop and think sometimes .........

3 days ago at 5.45am there was a massive downturn in just about every currency the USD is crossed with , all the majors stumbled , Cable held up until last night , then was pushed back with enormous effort .

This is no mere happening .

Banks have seen their lenders close shop and head for the sand and sun .
That means they need cash to keep up the rent payments and can only get from a reluctant market or at a Fed auction , neither the keen approach for them .

So where can they get that sort of money ?

Simple , go into the smaller markets and smash down the futures prices with puts and shorts , thus giving them ample liquidity in an immediate cash raising . You know gold etc. ..

Then we have a group of Central banks creating digital money at predetermined positions in exchange rates . That's the liquidity they are injecting ..... digital dollars . The USD strengthened miracluously over a few days , just afterwards we have  a PPI report and a CPI report and a plunging market .

One hell of a repatriation if you ask me , fuel to the fire , watched one two years ago ........... I know what's going to happen .... naa nu nan naaa naaa

Staples are going up .


The COTs reports will be an interesting viewing , if the numbers have made it onto it yet ! 

But that's another problem . Especially if dust covers it up like the last round of hidings ...............

What get's me though is that everyone seems estatic about this Central Bank group injections/ interventions .......... I call it abracadabra .

But , this is a debasing , forget the unit price , it's the effect that's worrying , that debasing of the dollar unit , sends the widgets up in price .

So , the Grand Plan #2 Team have just created another inflation monster !

Their nightly prayer.......... ceteris paribus ..... ceteris paribus ..... ceteris paribus ........ aaaaameeeen .


----------



## Miner

Without being a technician it is probably we are going to have a world wide recession in most of the countries including US, Japan (already started), part of Australia (excluding WA and Qld). China and India will be spared because of they have a huge domestic consumption which insulates the recessionary effect. 
With Gold price, again not being a techy - but more from experience :
Indians and Chinese buy huge gold. Normally Indian (Hindus)  marriages  take a high amount of gold. Traditionally between 14 Dec -14 Jan no Hindu marriages are held. So consumption drops down for Au. 
However, with lower value of dollar it is  probably normal the gold is to go up. If USA keeps on making excuse to drop a bomb shell in Iran - then recessionary ground will be reduced and gold price will go up. 

Sorry I can not draw any graph here but if you please draw a correlation on international events, consumption there will be a X factor with gold price. I would be pleased to be told that it is my utopian concept - I will accept that.

Having said that I am looking for an opportunity to buy gold bullion and have started to pick up brains of the high tech whizards from this gold price thread.

Regards


----------



## So_Cynical

Miner just a heads up here...ive learned that prob 90% of posters on this forum are not interested in demand or consumption.

Its all waves and resistance, support, carry trade, plunge protection team,
triggers, trends and central banks, POO etc etc etc blah blah blah.

apparently supply and demand have nothing to do with it...and after
hanging around here a couple of months i sorta have to agree with em.

short term anyway.


----------



## Miner

No problem So_Cynical. You do have a point and I hear that .


----------



## rederob

barrett said:


> In the meantime it is hard to believe how gold and silver remain so poorly understood when the fundamentals for them are so clear.  Given the possibility for an unanticipated ‘black swan’ event I keep around half my assets in gold and silver stocks/bullion even when short term bearish.



barrett
I enjoyed your buying logic.
I was concerned that your other logic used the phrase*unanticipated ‘black swan’ event *.
It is tantamount to saying an unanticipated unanticipated event, which is therefore anticipated, mathematically speaking.
Which is to some degree my point.
Much of gold's price is based on known events that are marketwise-bearish, particularly a deflating US dollar and impending recession. 
Gold's present high price has re-factored in the increased probability of gloomy global markets and geopolitical instability.
Should the "known" (once) low probability events come to fruition, we have an expectation that gold will increase more rapidly than it has in recent years.
A black swan event could swing gold either way - sharply up or down.
From a theoretical construct the more likely outcome of a black swan event would actually be to crush gold's price.  That is because gold's historical price is largely predicated on it being in relatively short supply and difficult to find (apart from its intrinsic metalllic qualities).
So then, a black swan event is most likely to be one which gives the lie to gold's price base - an event such as a gold discovery that overnight renders the present mined quantum of gold pale into insignificance.
I shall therefore hold my thoughts on a black swan event in the context of gold, and prefer the increasingly more probable, less friendly, of events to deliver in spades.


----------



## michael_selway

rederob said:


> barrett
> I enjoyed your buying logic.
> I was concerned that your other logic used the phrase*unanticipated ‘black swan’ event *.
> It is tantamount to saying an unanticipated unanticipated event, which is therefore anticipated, mathematically speaking.
> Which is to some degree my point.
> Much of gold's price is based on known events that are marketwise-bearish, particularly a deflating US dollar and impending recession.
> Gold's present high price has re-factored in the increased probability of gloomy global markets and geopolitical instability.
> Should the "known" (once) low probability events come to fruition, we have an expectation that gold will increase more rapidly than it has in recent years.
> A black swan event could swing gold either way - sharply up or down.
> From a theoretical construct the more likely outcome of a black swan event would actually be to crush gold's price.  That is because gold's historical price is largely predicated on it being in relatively short supply and difficult to find (apart from its intrinsic metalllic qualities).
> So then, a black swan event is most likely to be one which gives the lie to gold's price base - an event such as a gold discovery that overnight renders the present mined quantum of gold pale into insignificance.
> I shall therefore hold my thoughts on a black swan event in the context of gold, and prefer the increasingly more probable, less friendly, of events to deliver in spades.




Hi red, are u bullish or bearish on gold?

thx

MS


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So_Cynical said:


> Miner just a heads up here...ive learned that prob 90% of posters on this forum are not interested in demand or consumption.




And 65% of posters in this thread make up statistics out of thin air .



Miner said:


> China and India will be spared because of they have a huge domestic consumption which insulates the recessionary effect.




I wouldn't hold my breath over China being the 'saviour' - big, big problems beginning to emerge....
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8962



rederob said:


> barrett
> So then, a black swan event is most likely to be one which gives the lie to gold's price base - an event such as a gold discovery that overnight renders the present mined quantum of gold pale into insignificance.




Assuming that such a discovery would need to produce in the order of several tonnes per year to have any meaningful negative impact, such is the supply/demand equation at present?

Over the years I have found that gold is the answer, so what is the question?

The question - What is money? When you work that out you can see that these consolidation periods that gold goes through are just breathers for the next advance, thanks to the past & present incumbents of the US Fed, and other central banks playing 'me too'. Unless someone like Paul Volcker assumes control of the Fed, in which case then gold would essentially be worthless in a society that had responsible fiat money controls, and or let the market find it's 'natural' levels. But, we don't, so we now have raging debasement of currencies (ie the money in your pocket is buying less & less eg property) in a race to the bottom of currency exchange rates in an effort to be globally competitive. (take out resources & what has Australia got to export - food we need for ourselves?, do we still have a manufacturing industry?) etc etc all said before in this thread...

I like Barretts' methodology for helping to pick when the time is right. Then, buy and hold.....

But for now it's wait & see?


----------



## ithatheekret

I think we are already witnessing such an event .

Consequentialism , naaaah .

More akin to a Latin tale ......... 


corruptio optimi pessima 
( corruption of the best is the worst of all )


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> You have to stop and think sometimes .........
> 
> 3 days ago at 5.45am there was a massive downturn in just about every currency the USD is crossed with , all the majors stumbled , Cable held up until last night , then was pushed back with enormous effort .
> 
> This is no mere happening .
> 
> Banks have seen their lenders close shop and head for the sand and sun .
> That means they need cash to keep up the rent payments and can only get from a reluctant market or at a Fed auction , neither the keen approach for them .
> 
> So where can they get that sort of money ?
> 
> Simple , go into the smaller markets and smash down the futures prices with puts and shorts , thus giving them ample liquidity in an immediate cash raising . You know gold etc. ..
> 
> Then we have a group of Central banks creating digital money at predetermined positions in exchange rates . That's the liquidity they are injecting ..... digital dollars . The USD strengthened miracluously over a few days , just afterwards we have  a PPI report and a CPI report and a plunging market .
> 
> One hell of a repatriation if you ask me , fuel to the fire , watched one two years ago ........... I know what's going to happen .... naa nu nan naaa naaa
> 
> Staples are going up .
> 
> 
> The COTs reports will be an interesting viewing , if the numbers have made it onto it yet !
> 
> But that's another problem . Especially if dust covers it up like the last round of hidings ...............
> 
> What get's me though is that everyone seems estatic about this Central Bank group injections/ interventions .......... I call it abracadabra .
> 
> But , this is a debasing , forget the unit price , it's the effect that's worrying , that debasing of the dollar unit , sends the widgets up in price .
> 
> So , the Grand Plan #2 Team have just created another inflation monster !
> 
> Their nightly prayer.......... ceteris paribus ..... ceteris paribus ..... ceteris paribus ........ aaaaameeeen .




Brilliant post.

Just a potential critique: if everyone is expecting gold to dip and then take off, will it follow that path which everyone expects? Maybe it wont dip, or wont dip as much as expected before taking off? Or perhaps it wont come back at all as everyone waits for everyone else to buy back in.

Just thinking out loud...


----------



## rederob

michael_selway said:


> Hi red, are u bullish or bearish on gold?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



Have you been hiding MS?
I am a gold bull.
I believe gold is at the lower end of its present cycle - certainly not half way there........ yet.

Uncle Festivus
My "black swan" event would see hundreds of tonnes of gold hitting the streets in a year.
I can't believe it would happen.
But the Swan River gave new meaning to what was believable, so improbability clearly does not equal impossibility. 
Otherwise I am a gold bull for the reasons many have posted above.


----------



## barrett

Rederob, by 'black swan' I mean a surprise event, something like the US or Israel striking Iran, a really bad terrorist attack, a sudden announcement by OPEC to reprice oil in a basket of currencies, a nuclear explosion of some kind.  Black swan's maybe not quite the right term as a number of people do expect those to happen.  But I think the gold price would jump substantially on any of the above.

When heavily leveraging gold in the futures market, the thing I worry about most is a really big move, say with gold moving $50/oz or more in a night (daily limit is $75!).  
I think the chance of a upper 'lock limit' surprise is much greater than a lower one, & it's enough to make me unwilling to short gold even when short term bearish.


----------



## barrett

once again, I am no chartist.. but I just noticed something interesting on the Comex Gold monthly candlestick.  Nov 07 candlestick looks much like May 06.  
After making these bearish posts I expect the gold price will turn and make a fool out of me as it does anyone who gets too sure about its short-term direction!:



chops_a_must said:


> Just a potential critique: if everyone is expecting gold to dip and then take off, will it follow that path which everyone expects? Maybe it wont dip, or wont dip as much as expected before taking off? Or perhaps it wont come back at all as everyone waits for everyone else to buy back in.
> 
> Just thinking out loud...




Although this forum isn't the whole gold market (I think!), that's a good point.. we should expect to be surprised, one way or another.


----------



## ithatheekret

chops_a_must said:


> Brilliant post.
> 
> Just a potential critique: if everyone is expecting gold to dip and then take off, will it follow that path which everyone expects? Maybe it wont dip, or wont dip as much as expected before taking off? Or perhaps it wont come back at all as everyone waits for everyone else to buy back in.
> 
> Just thinking out loud...





It's good to think out loud cobber , at least everyone else gets to understand your logic  , even if they can't manage the concept .

I believe the size of the market itself is the main detractor , because for years the banks etc. have been able to control the price via the hedge systems they had in place . That went topsy turvy the moment the miners retreated from hedging positions . This one event was the first dollar raiser taken away from the banks etc. , then in the face of this Central banks under instruction by the likes of Gordon ( bennett ) Brown , sold down their gold reserves , some saying it was for the better good of the planets poor .

Unfortunately his speech writers must have deleted a word or two , because after poor , should have came banks . The WMF were gagging with laughter at his proposal , because they know the metals market is at the whim of the financial markets , who can write a put or short based on paper and not delivery . Then the paper is shuffled along through a series of entries and exits , many at huge losses as the last round did . This directly affected the poor that Brown is so desperate to be seen helping , yet his plan would have seen larger jobs losses , than which was already underway . The Rand was the measuring stick they all forgot about , miners were leaving African shores and boarding up mines enmasse , now they're heading back , as the Rands fluctuations can now be booked against a rising commodity price that can be locked in at more appropriate levels than the banks hedge books would have ever allowed .

This is what the miners at the big end of town are constantly fighting , Newmont took the lead , Pierre Lassonde , showed the world there was to be a major shift in metals pricing and the financial markets laughed , they laughed loudly last week , but those snickers will end in growls as the shorts are once again reeled in . The big mining houses are the problem the finanacial markets have to face upto ............. they have more cash than the financial markets to splash about at present , just like the oilers , who are despised for the huge profits they are making , whilst everything else goes sideways for a few more years , but shock and horror , banks are losing money .

Well we haven't seen any big mining houses buy banks yet , or any of the big oilers buying a bank ............. but it will happen , if not a bank , then they will create their own financial insitutions , just like the car industry did many many moons ago . Miners have in the past taken over banks , oilers have taken banks over in the past also ......... it's just so far back in history , that half the analysts on the markets would need to get their history books out .
To be frank I wouldn't be surprised to see a major miner takeover a shovel supplier if you know what I mean , just to ensure a constant supply of parts .

The price fight has got absolutley nothing to do with supply and demand , that would mean the market has gone to fundamentals , if we were trading on fundamentals there would be very few game to short the gold price .

A quick look across the takeover sheets shows that miners , think the market is cheap !

Swings in the gold price will get larger and larger , and we will get use to it , but it will edge its way up for the next 10 to 15 years .

I have $880 notched in as my target , many have heard this stated before , but ............ it will get pushed into every resistance level it has to offer , but by Feb./ March 08 it will restart its climb .

The first cab off the rank to wait for is the rate rise by the ECB , you see this is one Central Bank that , although it has a complaining provincial at its helm , will not take its eye off the inflation monster it helped create , they know what they have released and they want it back in its cage .

The Reserve bank knows the monster that is on the loose , they have been handed an empty leash and now have to get the animal back in its box .
This being the case I believe we will see a rate hike come Feb./March as well . They are not waiting for a lead from the US , they have their own target and are not interested in the spin from across the pond , only the effects the spin is having .


----------



## Kauri

Still trading the smaller swings and round-abouts... look after the swings and the rounds will take care of themselves..  
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

There's obvious taboo subjects tied to POG . 

Black Swan Events , was mentioned earlier .

I have one that I would like to predict .

Goverments across the globe are changing , swings everywhere , troops will pullout of Iraq and focus on Afghanistan . The US will be left holding the fort .
The new President will pull troops out and leave skeleton posts , but with the Turkish Army to its flank . 
All the prisoners the Iraqi Government release will go home and tell everyone of the atrocities that have happened and whip up a fury , that will be leased by those with vested interests in chaos . They'll all meet chat , get angry , plan , wait and arm up .

Skeletons posts will pull back to the Northern oil fields and annex them .
From the consolidation of that position , the US will have enough reserve forces to commit to any threat or front they feel the urge to . This will enable the military to secure the oil , with a close ally at hand with reserve troop capabilities to ensure the annexation . The annexation will come under the pretence of securing Iraqs national interests .

The premium in oil will return and so too gold to some effect , the minute those angry little meetings turn into street gun fights , the neighbouring countries will be forced into action ..........

The next President better be good at kissing backsides , babies are out for this decade .

But , I must admit , I was thoroughly impressed by the capture of Sadmatt , unimpressed when they didn't leave straight away and annex the fields , to concentrate on Afghanistan , where our troops have been stoically performing their duties , under constant attack when rebuilding outposts and permantly under the threat of attack in the field .

Saddmatts oil sponsored terrorism  period , whilst he trucked it out under the globes satellite pictures , giving us all the finger and whilst I never liked the chap , he had put into motion assasination attempt on George Bush Snr . , no matter my dislike of the man , he was the President of the United States any retaliations are within my guidelines , to cease the perpetrations and conspirators .

But anarchy will return to Iraq .

I know my view is highly critical , although I welcome any other views on the matter . I always approach any subject with an open mind , and will be the first to admit when I'm wrong .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri said:


> Still trading the smaller swings and round-abouts... look after the swings and the rounds will take care of themselves..
> Cheers
> .......Kauri




Hey Kauri, check your inbox.

Gold stalled at 799 - bounce off lower trendline or will the CB's drive it down in a last ditched effort to bury gold from a technical perspective?

Ominous pennant - 

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.gif


----------



## Kauri

If the count is correct...big if... then the W*2* was shallow at 38%!! a strong bearish signal maybe??? anyways this may now be a W1/W2 of the following W*3 ... **or something...* 
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> If the count is correct...big if... then the W*2* was shallow at 38%!! a strong bearish signal maybe??? anyways this may now be a W1/W2 of the following W*3 ... **or something...*
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Got what seems to be the W*1*/W*2* in, but will wait now and see if a swing low comes in,(or a swing high) before re-committing... everything says down to me, but the W*2* at 38%ret has me cautious... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Yeah it's weird, the gold stocks are really taking a bath, I thought they might at least pause for breath but last night the XAU down another 4.00%, HUI down 3.09%.. even while gold didn't conclusively break down out of it's wedge (referring to the chart Festivus posted).

And how badly have the Aus-listed (mainly Aus-operating) gold stocks been smashed up in the past week, even as the gold price in $A has _rallied_ more than $20/oz!!  

The past 3 years I have watched this happen in the stocks before every major sell-off in the metal.. it doesn't mean the metal will certainly sell off but it ups the chances.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It's always good to keep an eye on the fundamentals - aussie gold miners still making money with record prices. FWIW, I've been buying gold stocks, mostly LGL, more this morning. Blood in the streets?

The correlation between gold and stock sell offs does not appear to be happening this time. Either gold stocks are oversold or indeed gold is lagging?


----------



## refined silver

No problems here.


----------



## refined silver

Likewise gold stocks looking good. Re-testing the 375 long-term resistance which if it holds will be the bottom in for the next upleg. If it doesn't hold, there is more strong support just underneath. Last night HUI hit 375. Sell strength, buy weakness in a bull market, not the other way round.


----------



## barrett

Well, the xau:gold ratio just hit 0.2 last night, very close to buying level.  In fact some people do use 0.2 rather than 0.19 as their buying level.  Also, that indicator is denominated in USD, and the timing of the bottom in the Aussie golds can be a little different - sometimes earlier, sometimes later - than the US gold sector.

So I wouldn't discourage anyone from buying Aussie gold stocks at these depressed levels - despite the possibility for gold to go lower.  Stocks usually bottom well before the metal.


----------



## bean

I use run patterns...a rise tonight in the US gold indexes will give a 1 up 3 down which is a bearish pattern.  However some support about 365 HUI failing that 340.  As for the POG it has held up pretty well so far however if selling pressure keeps on the stocks then POG may have a drop.
My preference...Looking for a V bottom? still a few days off?
And a nice plunge for the indexes.


----------



## ithatheekret

Today is the 18th of December , by the 20th the forex ranges will start to come about , its a cyclical thing where repatriation will see the greenback strengthen . The Yen will keep up it's volatile ways , we'll just have to grin and bear that , until it collapses ........ then a few loans will be safe .... r .


----------



## So_Cynical

Gentlemen with all the talk of inflation, I'm wondering how relevant that is to the POG, when u look at the charts from 
the 80's u have inflation oil and gold all moving pretty much together...will they do that again?

inflation is good for gold...right?


----------



## M34N

So_Cynical said:


> Gentlemen with all the talk of inflation, I'm wondering how relevant that is to the POG, when u look at the charts from
> the 80's u have inflation oil and gold all moving pretty much together...will they do that again?
> 
> inflation is good for gold...right?



Just thinking out loud, but I'm not 100% sure on this...

In the US, higher inflation means higher interest rates, which means a higher US dollar and therefore dearer for people to buy gold?

Probably not just going to be supported by US inflation, but also where the price of oil is heading too. I think most people have given up on the hope that oil will drop below $80 p/b in the next year or even possibly ever again, this will probably only support the POG.

Just my


----------



## explod

M34N said:


> Just thinking out loud, but I'm not 100% sure on this...
> 
> In the US, higher inflation means higher interest rates, which means a higher US dollar and therefore dearer for people to buy gold?
> 
> Probably not just going to be supported by US inflation, but also where the price of oil is heading too. I think most people have given up on the hope that oil will drop below $80 p/b in the next year or even possibly ever again, this will probably only support the POG.
> 
> Just my




Most of the US GDP comes from consumer spending.  Interest rates there are falling to stimulate the spending economy.  If interest rates go up the US goes belly up.   Their money is backed by debt so no one outside the US will want the US dollars, it will be immaterial.  As money becomes immaterial as it has in previous depressions, gold will go up because it is material and has intrinsic value.

Just my 2cents too


----------



## barrett

Here is my attempt at a wave count for W1/2 of W3 of C
First try, would be grateful for any suggestions, EW gurus.

It looks like wave C  in the chart below retraced to just over 62% before forming a top.

If this count is correct then gold would be about to head considerably lower as it enters W3 of W3 of C.  This would seem consistent with the behaviour of the US gold stocks as I'm writing this,as they barely responded to the $15 rally.


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> Here is my attempt at a wave count for W1/2 of W3 of C
> First try, would be grateful for any suggestions, EW gurus.
> 
> It looks like wave C  in the chart below retraced to just over 62% before forming a top.
> 
> If this count is correct then gold would be about to head considerably lower as it enters W3 of W3 of C.  This would seem consistent with the behaviour of the US gold stocks as I'm writing this,as they barely responded to the $15 rally.




Yep, could be.  A bit of sideways consolidation since you wrote that on some resistance at US$802

The Hui rallied in the last hour or so.  And MACD looking oversold.


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> Here is my attempt at a wave count for W1/2 of W3 of C
> First try, would be grateful for any suggestions, EW gurus.
> 
> It looks like wave C in the chart below retraced to just over 62% before forming a top.
> 
> If this count is correct then gold would be about to head considerably lower as it enters W3 of W3 of C. This would seem consistent with the behaviour of the US gold stocks as I'm writing this,as they barely responded to the $15 rally.



Hi barrett
 I'm on a pretty steep learning curve re E/W... as some of my attempted labelling shows.    I get much the same picture as you.. at the moment, but reserve the right to change at the drop of a another shoe  
 Am waiting to see if the hourlys line up and give a signal currently.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Thanks guys

This also could change at any moment, if it breaks 807, but....
just noticed this _potential_ 2-week head and shoulders forming on the hourly
(with a lopsided head and shoulders in the middle)


----------



## sydneysider

Kauri said:


> Hi barrett
> I'm on a pretty steep learning curve re E/W... as some of my attempted labelling shows.    I get much the same picture as you.. at the moment, but reserve the right to change at the drop of a another shoe
> Am waiting to see if the hourlys line up and give a signal currently.
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Kauri, U might confirm your results by looking at where the US dollar is heading at the moment. There has been firming here and daily technicals are heading higher i.e. MACD (on US dollar Index). Fed Policy may also call a halt to further interest rate cuts. U.S. Economic indicators are looking "reasonable" with employment rate looking steady. IF u follow U.S. stocks u will notice that the multinationals are doing well and are repatriating U.S. dollars back "home" prior to the end of the financial year. NYMEX oil futures also look very toppy with a technical bias to the downside at the moment. Commodity prices are also mostly biased to flatness /weakness in many cases i.e. most of the metals appear to have seen "peaks" (for the current time). All of this points to a steady to firming USD and weakness in gold.


----------



## So_Cynical

Last nite i was reading some commentary on the POG chart for the last month or so.

Higher lows with lower highs inside a tight range indicate a breakout, the expert didn't predict a direction for the breakout.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Last nite i was reading some commentary on the POG chart for the last month or so.
> 
> Higher lows with lower highs inside a tight range indicate a breakout, the expert didn't predict a direction for the breakout.




Yep, a pennant has been formed.  Uncle Festivus pointed out same a few days ago.  The hard support line of the lows suggest the breakout may be to the upside but that is not very conclusive.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.  Could stay in this for a week yet.


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> Yep, a pennant has been formed.  Uncle Festivus pointed out same a few days ago.  The hard support line of the lows suggest the breakout may be to the upside but that is not very conclusive.
> 
> Will be interesting to see what pans out.  Could stay in this for a week yet.




I'm starting to lean more to a bit of a bearish short term on POG... the XAU and particularly HUI, but I hope it holds up for a bit longer until I cash out of gold stocks. While the $US is holding firm I think we will be relatively ok in mining stocks in Aus, but if it fails to hold we could be in trouble.


----------



## barrett

So_Cynical said:


> Gentlemen with all the talk of inflation, I'm wondering how relevant that is to the POG, when u look at the charts from
> the 80's u have inflation oil and gold all moving pretty much together...will they do that again?



I believe they will, in the broader trend of things in coming years - but there will be periods of months where they move in different directions. 



So_Cynical said:


> inflation is good for gold...right?




That's right, but it's only half the equation.. what really drives the price of gold is the level of real interest rates.

This is the nominal interest rate on short term T-bills (in America), or for arguments' sake, on high interest accounts, less the rate of CPI inflation.

real rate = T-bill rate - CPI inflation

So Fed policy, and investors' fed policy expectations, is one half of the equation, and inflation, and investors' inflation expectations, is the other. 

I've attached some 35-year charts that show what the gold price does whenever the real interest rate turns negative - it goes nuts.  This can be caused by either inflation accelerating, or the Fed easing.. or in today's case, both.  

The gold bull markets in the '70s, and today's gold bull market, are driven by negative real interest rates.  Something interesting on the charts is that gold usually starts going up before the real interest rate turns negative, as contrarian investors see the writing on the wall and start accumulating gold as they have done in recent years. 

The longer-term case for gold in this bull market is that a) inflation is in an uptrend as in the '70s, and b) unlike Paul Volcker, Ben Bernanke shows every sign of wanting to lower rates to avoid a recession at all costs - and most investors don't realise the implications.  It's a recipe for negative real interest rates in coming years.

In the short term, anything can happen - for instance, there was a lot of talk about inflation last week, then gold goes down because some investors think the Fed will respond by being more hawkish with interest rates.  I reckon the best response is to stay focussed on the longer-term case for gold, and buy it on any major dips. This bull market is just getting started. cheers Barrett


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> I believe they will, in the broader trend of things in coming years - but there will be periods of months where they move in different directions.
> 
> 
> That's right, but it's only half the equation.. what really drives the price of gold is the level of real interest rates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The real question is, what drives interest rates?    The money supply/ its value.     If we go back over the history of money, some 5000 years now, its debasement, by printing more to overcome inflation has always sent gold up.
> 
> A great book "The Death of Money" J Kurtzman, 1993, is well worth a read.  Dont' know if it would be in print now.  Found mine in a basement second had shop.  Uni libraries would have it.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> I'm starting to lean more to a bit of a bearish short term on POG... the XAU and particularly HUI, but I hope it holds up for a bit longer until I cash out of gold stocks. While the $US is holding firm I think we will be relatively ok in mining stocks in Aus, but if it fails to hold we could be in trouble.




Could be.   On the five day we have a double top on the US$, a bit of resistance here perhaps.   Can we have a double head and shoulders?

Silver seems to be firming again.  Its getting very tight now.


----------



## wayneL

explod said:


> Can we have a double head and shoulders?



That would be a Tasmanian head and shoulders... wouldn't it? 

 I'll get my coat.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> That would be a Tasmanian head and shoulders... wouldn't it?
> 
> I'll get my coat.




Ha Ha Ha,

very good Wayne! on the back up to the POG rising and USD falling in the near to short term, the euro vs usd is starting to show support signs and consolidate on the 4 hour chart. Closed my shorts. watching with interest. big tail early this morning really got my attention.


----------



## barrett

wayneL said:


> That would be a Tasmanian head and shoulders... wouldn't it?



No, hold on I think it's their full coat of arms! :


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> ... If we go back over the history of money, some 5000 years now, its debasement, by printing more to overcome inflation has always sent gold up.



agreed



explod said:


> The real question is, what drives interest rates?    The money supply/ its value.



Other way round I think.  Central banks set short term interest rates.  When they keep them low relative to inflation so that real interest rates are negative, no-one has an incentive to save cash in the bank, everyone has an incentive to borrow and speculate.  The extra borrowing causes the money supply to expand via the fractional reserve banking system.  This debases the purchasing power of existing money relative to various useful things, food, shelter.. gold..  

So it's the Fed setting the real interest rate too low that causes the money supply to expand, that causes gold to go up.

Another source of money supply is 'printing money' - that is, the Fed creating money out of thin air and buying government bonds.  To my knowledge, the Fed and other central banks outside of Africa aren't actually doing that yet.  But as you said above, they always have resorted to some form of it eventually and this time they will too in one form or another.  Ben Bernanke basically admitted it in his papers on "Extraordinary Measures" to prevent deflation.

Hey thanks for the tip on that book.  Another good one is The Economics of Inflation by Costantino Bresciani-Turroni (1937), an Italian economist who experienced the Weimar inflation first hand.  Another good one is supposed to be 'Dying of Money' by Jens Parssons, any gold bugs on here read that yet?
Cheerio


----------



## explod

A number of gold stocks moved up today on the close.  One I watch, SBM LGL RSG and NCM.    Gold and silver upticked and the US dollar moved down all in the last half hour.

Only thing I can pick up at the moment is on BBC, "MBIA US bond insurer shocks investors with scale of guarantees for risky investements linked to home loans"


----------



## barrett

*Gartman, Faber on gold*

The short term bearish view has some high profile followers .. Dennis Gartman probably the most successful gold market timer around atm, IMO.  Most recently long at around the $643 low in Aug, he held his position until into the $800's.. still long but with a pared back position.  His short term view, taken from an article on Moneymorning.com, Dec 19th.. 

"Too Many Gold Fans Could Cool the Hot Metal 

In early December, a telling story came out of India, the world’s largest consumer of gold. 

Gold imports to India significantly plummeted for two consecutive months. November purchases fell drastically from 59 metric tons in 2006 to 12 tons during the same month this year. Likewise, year-over-year purchases for October fell from 68 tons in 2006 to 14 tons this year. 

Some of that occurred during India’s prime wedding season, as well as the Diwali festival holiday - which combine to mark the peak gold-buying season for that country.

Why the slump? Gold became too pricey. Not just too pricey, but too pricey for a country in which gold ownership is embedded as a cultural norm.

Gartman said investors would be wise to heed India’s counsel, and wait for prices to fall before investing. In doing so, investors are more likely to get in at a better price. "


Marc Faber's view,from his monthly column at AMEinfo.com, 11 Dec 07:

"I am cautious about industrial commodity prices, which could come under pressure as global liquidity growth and the global economy slows down. And while I still think that gold will outperform equities in the years to come I believe that a more meaningful correction in the price of gold is now underway."


----------



## explod

Barret.   Fluctuations in consumption by India is now only a small part of the equation.  I could sift up heaps of data but the following is just a part:--



> "China's Gold Consumption Tops World Third
> Demands in world gold market last year have amounted to 3278.4 tons, up 21% over the previous year and China has leaped to the third place among the eight biggest gold consumption powers, according to reports by World Gold Association.
> 
> Economic recovery in Asia has been reported to contribute the steep rise of demand in world gold market and countries like Indonesia and ROK have taken an especial momentum of increase. While the Y2K problem last year also resulted in enthusiastic gold investment in the United States.
> 
> In 1999, there are as many as 2799.2 tons of gold that have been demanded as jewelry, a 23% increase on the previous year and the investment demand has obtained an 8% increase to 479.2 tons, it has been reported.
> 
> Consumption in gold markets of India, the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Gulf countries, Turkey, Indonesia and Egypt has respectively taken the foremost eight places and a total amount of 201 tons of gold has been consumed in China, up 6.9% over 1998 and approaching its GDP increase. "


----------



## chops_a_must

Gold seems to have slipped my guard tonight. Looks to have broken out I would say. Not convincingly though...


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Yep, a pennant has been formed.  Uncle Festivus pointed out same a few days ago.  The hard support line of the lows suggest the breakout may be to the upside but that is not very conclusive.
> 
> Will be interesting to see what pans out.  Could stay in this for a week yet.




The break to the upside starting to happen on the gold chart.      Silver, the HUI and oil confirming.      Of course it always seems to go with rises in the Dow of late but manages to hold most of its gains when the dow falls.


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> Gold seems to have slipped my guard tonight. Looks to have broken out I would say. Not convincingly though...






explod said:


> The break to the upside starting to happen on the gold chart.      Silver, the HUI and oil confirming.      Of course it always seems to go with rises in the Dow of late but manages to hold most of its gains when the dow falls.




I'm not at all convinced it is a breakout. It hasn't broke above the bottom of the daily range let alone the open close range of my earlier Bear Flag. If it had got to 820 I would be more inclined to be thinking breakout of the larger wedge. 

It also seems to be having trouble staying above $812 again.

I also did a check back as far as I could and found that every reasonable to significant move up retraced at least to 38.2, but most from 50, to 61.8.

As I have said before, I am no expert, although trying to learn fast  and would appreciate any critique.


----------



## ithatheekret

Top chart there , crystal clear vision .

It will be back to odd looks soon , USD strength with POG strength at the same time .

Patience is the key , diligence makes the money .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Things about to happen maybe, 1-2 weeks time left for gold, $USD running out of steam and gold completing the pennant one way or another? MACD trying to break up for gold, down for USD?


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> Things about to happen maybe, 1-2 weeks time left for gold, $USD running out of steam and gold completing the pennant one way or another? MACD trying to break up for gold, down for USD?




Looks like a classic 4th wave of some degree in Gold(EW parlance). What's interesting is the type of pattern(Contracting Triangle)  and it's significance. These types of patterns always precede the last move up. 

This could be a brief(as in time) thrust  up(if it does in fact move that way) for long players. This might be a very nice shorting opportunity when it completes and will monitor closely.  This market is churning, the biggest winner will be cash next year.

Cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Looks like a classic 4th wave of some degree in Gold(EW parlance). What's interesting is the type of pattern(Contracting Triangle)  and it's significance. These types of patterns always precede the last move up.
> 
> This could be a brief(as in time) thrust  up(if it does in fact move that way) for long players. This might be a very nice shorting opportunity when it completes and will monitor closely.  This market is churning, the biggest winner will be cash next year.
> 
> Cheers




Nope, just part of the consolidation of the classis bull run for gold.  Even in the holiday low trade the PPP are unable to hold it back, just watch from mid January.

Cash is burning and has lost the fight.   Ask a US banker.

From my t/a, the uptick out of the pennant has not happened yet but looks like the upside will happen anytime soon.


----------



## Real1ty

explod said:


> Nope, just part of the consolidation of the classis bull run for gold.  Even in the holiday low trade the PPP are unable to hold it back, just watch from mid January.
> 
> Cash is burning and has lost the fight.   Ask a US banker.
> 
> From my t/a, the uptick out of the pennant has not happened yet but looks like the upside will happen anytime soon.




I have a question that i hope isn't stupid to you guys that do this technical analysis.

With all these signals you find on your charts to suggest that Gold is about to move up, how does a fundamental occurance, say like Oil unexpectedly starting to retreat affect that?

For example i would say that Gold would pull back if Oil dropped and the US$ held firm for awhile.

Sorry if this is a stupid question.


----------



## explod

Real1ty said:


> I have a question that i hope isn't stupid to you guys that do this technical analysis.
> 
> With all these signals you find on your charts to suggest that Gold is about to move up, how does a fundamental occurance, say like Oil unexpectedly starting to retreat affect that?
> 
> For example i would say that Gold would pull back if Oil dropped and the US$ held firm for awhile.
> 
> Sorry if this is a stupid question.




Not silly, a very good question which has far ranging answers deserving of its own thread, but I would be surprised if it has not been covered already.

Tech analysis is just that, charts based on past behaviour/experience and has no regard for what is happening in the real world.  Just where the chart is going.  Some would say this is reflecting and part of the real world.

Now looking at the oil situation, yes if that drops in price of late the gold price has gone with it.  Looking at events affecting share prices is part of (but only a part) fundamental analysis.    Some years ago I traded only from technical charting but found for my own type of trading I prefer to blend both together.  I find technical handy to confirm entry and exit points to my trades and I always sell a stock that drops 5% without reason (my strictest rule in fact)

Others more competent than I will add to this.  But as it is a gold thread you may wish to find previous discussion and get it going again.


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> Barret.   Fluctuations in consumption by India is now only a small part of the equation.  I could sift up heaps of data but the following is just a part:--





What Gartman was getting at was that Indians are some of the savviest timers in the gold market - within the constraints of their festival season.  

Another of the savviest groups - gold mining company treasurers - remain heavily short gold as of last Friday.

Insider buying at the North American-listed gold miners - a feature of every major interim bottom in this gold bull market - has been non-existent for the past two weeks - and there have been more sales than buys in the past 4 months.  

All of these factors are short-term bearish for gold.  

You may still be right regardless of this and the EW analysis but I wouldn't be so sure.


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> What Gartman was getting at was that Indians are some of the savviest timers in the gold market - within the constraints of their festival season.
> 
> Another of the savviest groups - gold mining company treasurers - remain heavily short gold as of last Friday.
> 
> Insider buying at the North American-listed gold miners - a feature of every major interim bottom in this gold bull market - has been non-existent for the past two weeks - and there have been more sales than buys in the past 4 months.
> 
> All of these factors are short-term bearish for gold.
> 
> You may still be right regardless of this and the EW analysis but I wouldn't be so sure.




Agree, I get a bit carried away as my horizon is the longer term only.  I do short term trade some stocks but I remain long term in what I consider the better sector for my overall objectives.   This clashes with the outlook of most and I will take more note of this in future.  I do become clouded by that extra slug of whiskey sometimes also.

On another note, if the gold price closes at or above its current US$812 we would have a tech break to the upside of the pennant.


A happy festive to you


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Nope, just part of the consolidation of the classis bull run for gold.  Even in the holiday low trade the PPP are unable to hold it back, just watch from mid January.




Explod,

You are sounding way too sure of yourself for your own good. Eventually that sort of attitude will make you your own worst enemy.

 Just remember there are no certainties in the market or possibilities and probabilities from which to trade from. I just mentioned a possibility which has a fair chance of playing out, but anything is possible in the market at anytime.

Happy festive season and good luck with your Gold position in 2008


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Explod,
> 
> You are sounding way too sure of yourself for your own good. Eventually that sort of attitude will make you your own worst enemy.
> 
> Just remember there are no certainties in the market or possibilities and probabilities from which to trade from. I just mentioned a possibility which has a fair chance of playing out, but anything is possible in the market at anytime.
> 
> Happy festive season and good luck with your Gold position in 2008




You are correct

I have to believe there are certainties.  eg. WOW (a monopoly)for the next few years, food is absolutely essential and it will take some years for Westfarmers to get Coles back on track.  With a trailing stop loss of course. TCL Transurban, cars will not stop going through the tunnel and I watch for  leaks on my way to the casino.

On gold, it is based only on the learning taken from others more competent than I.  Again always a stop loss.

My arguments are simplistic, my approach to investing is also and newcomers to the forum need to be able to see the wood for the trees.    In this we all form a part by our arguments and counter arguments.  And being agreeable all the time is monotonous.   A part of this is also entertainment preferable to the idiot box.

Luck I do not believe in, ( but appreciate your wish) absolute persistance gets there.    Lost 75% of my wealth about four years ago on a dreadful real estate investment.    The task of getting it back has (been my counsellor) and stopped me from sinking in my depression.   Proved the strength of my marriage, caused my wife to become very ill.  She is well again now.  And on reflection from your words realise my objective is an obsession on the edge of a clouded perspective.   Unfortunately we can only fight with the tools and ammunition available to us.

Sometimes that extra slug of Johnny Walker clouds my judgement too, enemy or friend I prefer it to valium.  

And a happy festive to you and your family also.   regards explod


----------



## ithatheekret

I was happy with $810 , but .... the selling pressure holding it under that , well , it looks suffice to say it is significant in the short term .

So I remain unconvinced on POG , until the $810 area is closed above and held for another move higher .

Whilst we can blame the fact that in tight liquidity in the markets has allowed cash raisings , we should also note that CFOs are active in the market at present and are short to an extent , they are in sync and usually at the forefront . Their coverings can bring the price back swiftly too .


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Explod,
> 
> You are sounding way too sure of yourself for your own good. Eventually that sort of attitude will make you your own worst enemy.
> 
> Just remember there are no certainties in the market or possibilities and probabilities from which to trade from. I just mentioned a possibility which has a fair chance of playing out, but anything is possible in the market at anytime.
> 
> Happy festive season and good luck with your Gold position in 2008




Have been further mulling over your comment and think it a bit unfair.  Gold had been showing considerable strength within the overall volatility of the last six weeks and the feelings I had when making that comment to which you refer is gradually being confirmed in my humble view.   I am never sure but can see present direction clear enough.


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Things about to happen maybe, 1-2 weeks time left for gold, $USD running out of steam and gold completing the pennant one way or another? MACD trying to break up for gold, down for USD?




It has done that now and it has been so constrained that the first move out has been pretty convincing too.   A close in this area may see an attack on the ATH high soon.


----------



## explod

Of course the HUI has been telling us of the uptick over the last three trading days also.  And oil up, dollar down and interestingly Dow sideways to down.


----------



## explod

Belated Present for Gold

 By Jon Nadler      
Dec 26 2007 2:36PM

www.kitco.com



Good Afternoon,



Gold bugs opened one last surprise present the day after Santa left town and found...an invigorated price for their favorite metal.

While spot prices opened only marginally higher in New York this morning, adding $2.40 to $814.60 on the bid side, the trade took the $1.50 (at one point $2.50) crude oil price spike and corresponding slide in the US dollar (to 77.14) on the index as tradable news and acted upon them. Spot bullion finished quite strong, rising $12.60 on the day, to settle at $824.80 per ounce -practically at the day's highs. Oil rose to $95.66 amid renewed strikes by Turkish forces on Kurdish positions within Iraq, while the greenback declined on perceptions that the holiday shopping season was, indeed, a dud, and that home prices in the US have now shown their largest decline on record for through end-October. Silver rose 15 cents to $14.67 while platinum was off to the races, gaining $13 to $1539.00 a new record, amid 10%+ lease rates seen in the market.

An integral part of today's boost for gold was the following news, as seen on Marketwatch:

"Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities were down 6.1% on average in the past year as of October, according to the Case-Shiller price index released Wednesday by Standard & Poor's. Since October 2006, prices in 10 cities fell 6.7% -- a record drop. The prior largest decline was 6.3%, reached in April 1991. "No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and co-developer of the index."

Any wonder then, that the Washington Post reports: "A surge in [holiday shopping] spending over the weekend may not have been enough to rescue Target, Sears Holdings and Macy's from the slowest holiday spending season in five years." Indeed, a 3.6% rise in spending over last year pales in comparison to the 6.6 and 8.7 percent gains we've seen in the past two years. 

Americans remain pessimistic about their economy, are lukewarm about the merchandise they find in stores, and prefer to click their computer mice for online shopping as $3+ gasoline has all but grounded their fleet of behemoth SUVs this winter. At the end of the day however, much of this reluctant behavior is probably attributable to the palpable sense of shrinking wealth which was ignited by the real estate mess. When a US homeowner looks out the window and sees a sea of "FORECLOSURE" and "LIQUIDATION" signs in the neighborhood and then looks up property values for his own McMansion on Zillow, the last thing on the list of to-dos is shopping 'till dropping.

Meanwhile, in a Bloomberg piece we learn that:

"The yen traded near a seven-week low against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan will refrain from raising interest rates after policy makers said risks to global economic growth are increasing." 

Japan's yen has weakened against nine of the 16 most-active currencies this year as the nation's central bank kept its benchmark lending rate at the lowest among major economies, prompting investors to seek higher yields elsewhere. Japan's economic growth is slowing and policy makers need to carefully examine statistics and financial markets before determining interest rates, Bank of Japan board member Hidetoshi Kamezaki said today in a speech in Yokohama, near Tokyo. 

"Global financial markets continued to be unstable and there was uncertainty regarding global economic developments," most BOJ members agreed at their Nov. 12-13 policy meeting, according to minutes released today. Some members said the risk the U.S. economy will lose momentum "had increased somewhat." 

Watch for continuing volatility amid thinly-traded markets but keep an eye on closing levels for the remainder of the year as on-going strength may bode well for the first quarter of 2008. 



Jon Nadler


----------



## barrett

Happy festive season everyone

We have a potential breakout, but following Nick's post on 12 Dec, wave 2 of the current C could go all the way up to 840 before C is invalidated.  So the current upside breakout could be a false one. 

The breakout does improve things for the short term bulls but I still expect a pullback.  Here is an interview with Marc Faber on his outlook, very positive on gold, except in the near term:

Gold price may get under pressure
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/topstory/newsdetails.php?id=4362

Audio version:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=38919

Kauri , if you're around this week, I'd be very interested in your reading of the wave count at the moment.


----------



## refined silver

Technical Analysis without true Fundamental understanding will at best break even in the long run.

Gold is going up a lot lot further. Without a true understanding of the fundamentals behind this, plus the courage of your convictions, (these convictions subject to continual testing and checking), TA will not help. 

With correct FA, TA is a huge help and will greatly increase your gains.

Going short gold in today's environment is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steam roller. (Except Au has acceleration the steam roller doesn't!)


----------



## ithatheekret

ithatheekret said:


> I was happy with $810 , but .... the selling pressure holding it under that , well , it looks suffice to say it is significant in the short term .
> 
> So I remain unconvinced on POG , until the $810 area is closed above and held for another move higher .
> 
> Whilst we can blame the fact that in tight liquidity in the markets has allowed cash raisings , we should also note that CFOs are active in the market at present and are short to an extent , they are in sync and usually at the forefront . Their coverings can bring the price back swiftly too .




Well , there was the higher move ...... and dollar strength came in across a few swaps ...... I'm happified . Not impressed by the NewCrest management but that's an entirely different subject .


----------



## refined silver

Text on chart (if too small to read)

"Very impressive rally in gold today as it took out a MAJOR area of resistance near the $825 level. Gold received a huge tailwind in the form of a sharpely higher Euro as well as a further surge upwards in Crude Oil.

"While price movements at this time of year are always suspect due to thinner trading conditions and lighter volume, nonetheless, the move is very positive and will turn more than a few of the black boxes into the BUY mode. Not only did we take out the band of horizontal resistance near the $825 level, but it also broke the downtrending line that has been in place for more than 6 weeks. Both downtrending lines shown on this chart have been decisively broken.

Should gold be able to hold these gains the rest of the week, history suggests that upon their return in full force next week, funds will be re-establishing new longs as shorts cover. Let's see what the next couple of days bring us."    Dan Norcini.


----------



## ithatheekret

Yes , Asian markets are the good buyers , but NY and Eur tend to take a portion off . Can we put a litmus of a $6 - $8 retracement down for those markets or a carry through ?

PS I took a mini @ $804 + change


----------



## barrett

refined silver said:


> Technical Analysis without true Fundamental understanding will at best break even in the long run.
> 
> Gold is going up a lot lot further. Without a true understanding of the fundamentals behind this, plus the courage of your convictions, (these convictions subject to continual testing and checking), TA will not help.
> 
> With correct FA, TA is a huge help and will greatly increase your gains.
> 
> Going short gold in today's environment is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steam roller. (Except Au has acceleration the steam roller doesn't!)




I agree on all points, but I like to get a discount if one's coming..  On long term fundamentals for gold - I wrote my take on it here last week.  On short term fundamentals, I look at what's happened to the US dollar in the early stages of every global slowdown since 1971.  It's rallied strongly, as it's done this month.  The reason is that liquidity contracts in the private sector - independently of what central banks are doing.  This is why Faber expects gold to come under pressure in the short term.  

I remain heavily long gold shares and bullion (just no futures atm).  
'wait to buy more' is as negative as I get


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> On short term fundamentals, I look at what's happened to the US dollar in the early stages of every global slowdown since 1971.  It's rallied strongly, as it's done this month.




It is interesting to note that this date aligns nicely to Nixons shenanigans with the gold standard, so naturally the world generally would 'fall back' on the 'new' reserve currency. Yes, it has rallied, but I'm not sure it has the usual fully committed support it once enjoyed in times like these, apart from the Fed buying it's own money via some covert Cayman Island account. 

Maybe it is 'different this time' as they say, to the point where the 36 year fiat money experiment may be writing it's own conclusion, having failed at being a responsible and sustainable method of value exchange?

Can they inflate their way out of this one?


----------



## So_Cynical

Com on Guys...were 25 bucks away (1 good day) from record highs.

Enough with the POG doom and gloom.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Com on Guys...were 25 bucks away (1 good day) from record highs.
> 
> Enough with the POG doom and gloom.




As if you wouldn't guess, I'm with ya on this.  I have trotted this out before but it is worth restating in more simplified form, but first a quote from Uncle Festivus earlier in the year to which I agree.   

"In this gold bull run they have only just sounded the bell for the start of the game.'

Cant remember the exact dates, but post WW2 gold was becoming a bit of a problem to the US currency so Nixon (1970s) separated currency from the need to be backed by gold.    They also fixed the price just before that at about US$35 an ounce.   Nixon's thingo effectively allowed it to float and it did all the way up to a peak of US$895 on April 25th in 1980.   So that is a pretty good increase for some savvy goldies eh.

Well in 1999 to 2001 or so gold arose again from a floor price of around US$250 to the current $800 odd.    Now inflation adjusted and equation wise it has a long way to go to reach parity with 1980.

The other aspect is that the current financial fundamentals for currencies, particularly for the World Reserve Currency (THE US DOLLAR) are much worse than they were in the 1970's and some pundits are saying worse than 1929 to 31.

That is why I do not worry too much about the fine day by day fluctuations, (except for dips as buying opportunities).    Because gold has intrinsic, actual value,,,, it is all go..........IMHO


----------



## numbercruncher

Found a cool little tool on the RBAs website, an Inflation calculator !

http://http://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/calc.go


A 'basket' of goods and services costing 1 pound in 1901 would cost $116.77 in todays money - 

So what ?

Well if you kept the Gold 1 pound (sovereign) coin from 1901 that would be worth $210 plus in bullion - let alone its numismatic value.

Gold rules  Fiat is destined for failure


----------



## explod

Gold is again poised for a considerable uptick.  For some time it has been following the movements of the Dow, last night it did the reverse.  As commentators above point out it also boke a number of resistance points with ease in the last few days and as So Cynical postulates it is only a few bucks from the all time high.

The US dollar index has since 2001 been the mirror reflection down of the gold price rise.  Of couse with the word out now that the US is wracked with debt this situation will accellerate down at a greater rate.  

The last time that the US$ index was at its current level was towards the end of October, about two months ago and gold was at US$730.  It then dropped and gold ran up to US$830.     But this time as the US$ index is dropping from this point gold is almost back at the same high.   If the head and shoulders completes, and a lot of pressure is on it to do so then gold is going to go into very high new territory very soon.

It will be interesting to see what pans out.


----------



## barrett

I think the short term bear arguments remain strong, but... I also agree that the way gold is behaving in the past 24 hours is very bullish, consolidating above 820.  

I also notice that Gartman has now turned bullish in the past 24 hours and I've never made a cent trading against him.  

from Forbes, 15 hours ago:
'The major trend remains clearly upward, and the consolidation that has taken place since early November now seems to have run its course as spot gold has broken out to the upside,' said Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter -- a daily trading note.

from Reuters - 6 hours ago:
"We fear that the major trend against the dollar is about to reassert itself," said Dennis Gartman, independent analyst and author of The Gartman Letter. "Were this not the turn of the year, we would almost certainly be buying euros against the dollar today. We are content to be long gold instead."

I am not so convinced that the dollar will go down in a straight line.. but given the convincing breakout in gold I bought two contracts an hour ago, but with tight stop orders in case we are still in wave C.  I'd rather be buying at 720.. but we'll see.  This will be interesting.


----------



## explod

The big brockerage funds out of US have been talking up the dollar over the last few days and I think it is this noise that can lead some astray.  They are some of the very funds that are getting into strife with carry trade stuff so the ramping coming from this direction says  they are in bigger trouble than they are letting on and are probably going short as they say the oposite.

Info. courtesy Everbank, US


----------



## bvbfan

Gold will hit new all time highs in USD once oil breaks $100, only other reason for POG to rise now I feel is terrorism related.

I'm still bullish on gold but I'm concerned it will stall out for now.


----------



## explod

bvbfan said:


> Gold will hit new all time highs in USD once oil breaks $100, only other reason for POG to rise now I feel is terrorism related.
> 
> I'm still bullish on gold but I'm concerned it will stall out for now.




Can understand your concern, this is always the case in times of uncertainty.  Can you put a finger on it, I would be pleased to know why you think it will start to fall out ?

cheers explod


----------



## refined silver

bvbfan said:


> Gold will hit new all time highs in USD once oil breaks $100, only other reason for POG to rise now I feel is terrorism related.
> 
> I'm still bullish on gold but I'm concerned it will stall out for now.




The biggest reason for POG to rise is not oil or terrorism although these help. It is the downtrend of the world's reserve currency the US dollar. This downtrend is fuelled by massive Trade, Current Account and Budget Deficits which have no hope of reversing any time soon. The US Budget deficit will explode exponentially shortly as the slowing US economy dramatically cuts tax revenue while increasing govt spending. Added to this is the incredible printing of money as Central Banks all over try to liquify capital markets, seized up with trillions of toxic derivative garbage. This breakdown of the US dollar, and loss of faith in other paper assets are what will propel gold far far higher.


----------



## ithatheekret

Let's not forget Jan 9th sees the Shanghai exchange start trading gold futures , the reported 300 g contract is actually a 1000g contract , said to have been risen to discourage individual investors ..........


----------



## barrett

Happy New Year '08!   Every new year my thoughts turn to whether gold will finally make some serious progress towards fair value..  who knows what 08 will hold.

In the short term.. I'm kinda lost here with the EW count, trendlines etc, any short term technical views?   Cheers


----------



## rederob

barrett said:


> Happy New Year '08!   Every new year my thoughts turn to whether gold will finally make some serious progress towards fair value..  who knows what 08 will hold.
> 
> In the short term.. I'm kinda lost here with the EW count, trendlines etc, any short term technical views?   Cheers



barret
Read Scotia Mocatta's 2008 gold forecast and you will glean all you need to put a smile on your face.


----------



## treefrog

There are some similarities to the gold and silver market in 1979 and 1980 when silver soared to around $50 an ounce.  Now, as then, the oil price rose to levels not seen before.  Now also the value of the U.S. Dollar has been declining.  There was uncertainty in the Middle East as there is now.  One major exception is that U.S. interest rates were rising then as inflation hit double digits - that is not the case now although if interest rates begin to rise the similarity to 1980 would be more complete.    

The precious metals are also influenced by the U.S. Dollar.  The U.S. Dollar Index (MARCH contract) closed today (Thursday) at 76.60 from 77.18 yesterday, still near the lowest price in a quarter of a century, still well below the high of 92.53 hit in November 2005 and well below its all time record high in 2002 near 120.00.   


full report: http://www.kitco.com/reports/technicalindicators_dec282007.html


----------



## treefrog

sorry - didn't address the thread question - but then I'm not alone there.

*A$1120 *before mid 2008 according to the charts that treefrogs use


----------



## explod

treefrog said:


> sorry - didn't address the thread question - but then I'm not alone there.
> 
> *A$1120 *before mid 2008 according to the charts that treefrogs use





Could be right and my take on the point and figure chart is that the current consolidation appears to have features of that in 2005 prior to the jump to $721.   The other clear aspect is the increasing volatilty and consolidation periods.  Huge forces are now playing this bull run.  I would also suggest that the breakouts are larger and would concieve that the next one could certainly go $250 to $300 to align with your view Treefrog.

What do others think?

Chart coutesy of the Privateer Newsletter.


----------



## ithatheekret

I wish I could figure this IMI file change out to post a chart here .

If we can agree that the market has already become comfortable with $840 , I think it will be as the projections I have , I note your $1120 with great interest TF , because I have that as an area which has effects elsewhere .
ie. when stag goes hyper . It also takes into account the Jan. effect . which is yet to be seen whether it is still a hinderance .

RSI is set (14) 48.18 and are based on a 20% rise in the annual price ( not the current 30% )

$820 test say $818/9 , if well breached the low will be tested , based on the last 60 days cycle , I'll use the $841.75 low , ( note back in the charts the $341 fight ) , we could see the same again , which has me prepared for a higher low test , just in case .

above the last rally , I have higher projections at $850 /$870/80 --- $905/10---$940-$950 where I see a possible stall area , then $970/$990/$1005/$1070/90 ---$1120/$1140/50/$1170/90 .

That's as far as my calculations can take it on the data available at present .

But ...... the $650 projection further back played out almost step by step after getting out of the $340's and $370's . Remembering each peak is an instant cash raiser for those with the courage or need  ..........


----------



## Whiskers

ithatheekret said:


> I wish I could figure this IMI file change out to post a chart here .




Hi ithatheekret. I had trouble copying some files until I got some easy tips on this forum.

Try this... make a screen dump.
Press _Alt_ and _Print Screen _together.
Paste into suitable program/file. I use Microsoft Picture Manager/New bitmap image. Resize it, compress to get down to Joe's attachment limit. Sometimes I have to resize again.
Then upload through 'Manage Attachments'.

Hope that helps cos I,m keen to have a look at your work.

PS: Just found a thread about posting charts that also might help. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6530


----------



## rederob

treefrog said:


> There are some similarities to the gold and silver market in 1979 and 1980 when silver soared to around $50 an ounce.  Now, as then, the oil price rose to levels not seen before.  Now also the value of the U.S. Dollar has been declining.  There was uncertainty in the Middle East as there is now.  One major exception is that U.S. interest rates were rising then as inflation hit double digits - that is not the case now although if interest rates begin to rise the similarity to 1980 would be more complete.



There are "some", but they are not useful.
The silver market was being manipulated by the Hunt's and came crashing down - only speculation kept it rising as the Hunt's were trying to buy all the world's silver, it seemed.
Middle East uncertainty has been running for 2 millennium, and last century few recall Nasser taking control of the Suez canal, let alone subsequent Israeli-Lebanon/Palestinian skirmishes.
While it is true that oil prices rose substantially back then, the cause was market manipulation again - nothing to do with fundamental supply and demand dynamics.
Presently gold supply is in deficit to the market, made up through "above ground" sales, such as through Central Banks.
Presently oil supply is in deficit, made up through refining additional consensates.
Presently there is a spectre of global recession, or at least a subprime meltdown that will impact the US severely.
Presently there is a flight to safety from funds, concerned that even "cash" may not withstand a subprime catastrophe.
Presently the benefits of going into gold, on balance, make far more sense than in the late 70s early 80s.
Top that off with a chart pattern that, as you suggest, kicks into the $1000+ range before its next period of consolidation.


----------



## ithatheekret

Whiskers said:


> Hi ithatheekret. I had trouble copying some files until I got some easy tips on this forum.
> 
> Try this... make a screen dump.
> Press _Alt_ and _Print Screen _together.
> Paste into suitable program/file. I use Microsoft Picture Manager/New bitmap image. Resize it, compress to get down to Joe's attachment limit. Sometimes I have to resize again.
> Then upload through 'Manage Attachments'.
> 
> Hope that helps cos I,m keen to have a look at your work.
> 
> PS: Just found a thread about posting charts that also might help. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6530




Thanks heaps Whiskers , something new to learn , onya cobber ,  I must have worn a groove in my desk over this subject .


----------



## Kauri

Haven't updated my charts since last year..   friday that is..  but how I am seeing gold at the moment.. well one of the ways anyways..  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## wavepicker

Hello kauri,

see pretty much the same here, but is upmove close to finishing?? This looks like it might end up as a false break or even a truncation relative to wave 3 as mentioned in post #2507.

It seems to me that there are way too many pundits on this thread that are  convinced that the Gold is heading for the stars. This might be a sign that more upside might be limited??

I too beleive Gold will move much higher  in the long term, but not in this leg. In fact I have my eyes glued for a possible short here in what appears to be a good RR EW setup in the making which could send gold sub $700.

When I stop hearing precious metals being discussed on this thread, on CNBC and the financial print media, that will be my signal to jump in to ride the next major move upward, but that might not be this year.

Cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Hello kauri,
> 
> see pretty much the same here, but is upmove close to finishing?? This looks like it might end up as a false break or even a truncation relative to wave 3 as mentioned in post #2507.
> 
> It seems to me that there are way too many pundits on this thread that are  convinced that the Gold is heading for the stars. This might be a sign that more upside might be limited??
> 
> I too beleive Gold will move much higher  in the long term, but not in this leg. In fact I have my eyes glued for a possible short here in what appears to be a good RR EW setup in the making which could send gold sub $700.
> 
> When I stop hearing precious metals being discussed on this thread, on CNBC and the financial print media, that will be my signal to jump in to ride the next major move upward, but that might not be this year.
> 
> Cheers




What is the rationale behind supposing that because a lot of pundits on this thread believe gold is heading up (and not as you say "heading for the stars") that it is a sign that it will probably go down.

Looking back over some of your posts, in particular 1st, 24th and 25th of December you tend to put down without to much substance.  At least most of the pundits on this thread support thier respective thesis with a little more argument that in my humble view stands up to scrutiny.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> What is the rationale behind supposing that because a lot of pundits on this thread believe gold is heading up (and not as you say "heading for the stars") that it is a sign that it will probably go down.
> 
> Looking back over some of your posts, in particular 1st, 24th and 25th of December you tend to put down without to much substance.  At least most of the pundits on this thread support thier respective thesis with a little more argument that in my humble view stands up to scrutiny.




That is cheap talk explod and totally unecessary. From what I have seen you are always quick to attack an opposing that is not in line with your interests. 

I have put forward a probable trade in Gold(as a replyto Kauri) that I might take soon based on the rationale in the chart which is accompanied by extreme bullish optimism by the majority of the crowd. I am not trying to down ramp Gold in anyway because this market is so big and I am so insignifcant that it's not possible. So don't get too stressed.

Your reaction to my last post does nothing but add to my confidence in taking a potential trade. I might take this trade soon with a stop just above the previous high $845.55

As another poster recently mentioned to me, if we had another 10 explods posting on forums  around the world that in itself would be enough to make the POG continue rising.

Have nice night


----------



## Miner

wavepicker said:


> That is cheap talk explod and totally unecessary. From what I have seen you are always quick to attack an opposing that is not in line with your interests.
> 
> I have put forward a probable trade in Gold(as a replyto Kauri) that I might take soon based on the rationale in the chart which is accompanied by extreme bullish optimism by the majority of the crowd. I am not trying to down ramp Gold in anyway because this market is so big and I am so insignifcant that it's not possible. So don't get too stressed.
> 
> Your reaction to my last post does nothing but add to my confidence in taking a potential trade. I might take this trade soon with a stop just above the previous high $845.55
> 
> As another poster recently mentioned to me, if we had another 10 explods posting on forums  around the world that in itself would be enough to make the POG continue rising.
> 
> Have nice night




Dear Wavepicker and Explode

What a start in 2008 ! Real explosive through explode and picked up easily by wave picker.
Folks - calm down and a long way to go in 2008. Probably both of you sit down over a cup of coffee or play footy though me dummy  do not mind to get free entertainment with personality clash between pundits  
Just in jest and do not send me brick bat as I did have a good break and looking forward for a nicer 2008 and wish you all the same 

Regards


----------



## numbercruncher

Please no arguments in this thread ....

Simple formula, Buy/Keep/Aquire gold in defiance of what central banks want, watch fiat currency and the fractional reserve banking system crumble (one day), real wealth you can feel, hold, watch shine in the sun, easy peezy ....

Happy New Year


----------



## Whiskers

I'm optermistic about the longer term of gold, but initially my gut feeling and more so the charts support the view that there is probably got to be a bit more of a correction before we go too much higher. 

Further to wavepickers observation in wave analysis, which I understand, but the calc's are a bit out of my league at the moment, and his MACD observation, which I did notice and do understand... I also take note of the relative position of the DMI's. 

On the weekly chart the -DMI is out on the boundary, to use a sporting analogy. From my understanding of the maths behind the formula, most trading has been outside the previous trading range on the negative side for some time. I also note that the +DMI has given some ground to cause the bit of consolidation over the last few weeks, but the -DMI has yielded little. 

Taking the rest of the data into consideration, it seems to me that the probability of the market going much higher in the short term is much less than it going much lower. 

In other words the momentum has slowed to a point where I think there is too much pent up low end of range trading, reflected in the position of the -DMI, which has to give sometime soon. If the top range of the market, outside the previous range collapses quickly as well, we will have a significant retracement on our hands.


----------



## chops_a_must

Whiskers said:


> I'm optermistic about the longer term of gold, but initially my gut feeling and more so the charts support the view that there is probably got to be a bit more of a correction before we go too much higher.
> 
> Further to wavepickers observation in wave analysis, which I understand, but the calc's are a bit out of my league at the moment, and his MACD observation, which I did notice and do understand... I also take note of the relative position of the DMI's.
> 
> On the weekly chart the -DMI is out on the boundary, to use a sporting analogy. From my understanding of the maths behind the formula, most trading has been outside the previous trading range on the negative side for some time. I also note that the +DMI has given some ground to cause the bit of consolidation over the last few weeks, but the -DMI has yielded little.
> 
> Taking the rest of the data into consideration, it seems to me that the probability of the market going much higher in the short term is much less than it going much lower.
> 
> In other words the momentum has slowed to a point where I think there is too much pent up low end of range trading, reflected in the position of the -DMI, which has to give sometime soon. If the top range of the market, outside the previous range collapses quickly as well, we will have a significant retracement on our hands.




I'm not really sure how you are reading that indicator whiskers... It is still reading a buy to me. The adx has bottomed at indicator support and is turning, although that momentum has appeared to weaken.

The +dmi is still way above the -dmi, which is still a long signal, but the adx is not above the -dmi level. So to me it indicates  gold has a bit of a way to go, but perhaps wont be anywhere near as strong as previous moves. It's one of the very few indicators I use for trend trades, and I've found it quite useful.

This is all on AUD gold by the way.

And to add weight to Wavepicker's musings, from my view, all the best R/R trades of late on these futures, is on fading the breakouts at the moment, on the markets I follow at least... There appears not to be any follow through on silver either...


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> That is cheap talk explod and totally unecessary. From what I have seen you are always quick to attack an opposing that is not in line with your interests.
> 
> I have put forward a probable trade in Gold(as a replyto Kauri) that I might take soon based on the rationale in the chart which is accompanied by extreme bullish optimism by the majority of the crowd. I am not trying to down ramp Gold in anyway because this market is so big and I am so insignifcant that it's not possible. So don't get too stressed.
> 
> Your reaction to my last post does nothing but add to my confidence in taking a potential trade. I might take this trade soon with a stop just above the previous high $845.55
> 
> As another poster recently mentioned to me, if we had another 10 explods posting on forums  around the world that in itself would be enough to make the POG continue rising.
> 
> Have nice night




Perhaps it does appear that I am attacking and I apologise for that.

If you evaluate the content of our respective posts it is justification that I am looking for.   The content required to fulfill that one word makes it possible for others (and we all have different understandings) to learn why a certain statement has been made.

Not in fact saying that you are wrong in you assumptions, I am often wrong in my own but I do try to be crystal clear in my reasoning on the forum so that there is no missunderstanding and so that some of us who are less experienced will learn.

I took umbridge at the statement purporting that gold may go in a certain direction purely on the basis of others saying it would be going the other way.  This same averment was repeated in another post since.

I have no interests in this business other than my own private investing for myself.   The continued failure of paper currrencies is ramping the gold price more than anything ever can.   I realise gold will not go up in a straight line nothing ever does but there is considerable strength at the moment for all the reasons (justifications) stated in recent posts.   In my own assessments I look at every bit of material that I can get my eyes onto.   In the last week for example the chart on the HUI index indicates an oversold position.  The HUI has been a relieable indicator to me in the past.   Silver for the big moves has also been a reliable indicator,  it, as has been stated above in a recent post, has been very subdued but the chart on this indicates the POSSIBILITY (not certain) of a break to the upside.  

Yes I am passionate about precious metals, for one reason, they are in one of the best trends of any of the commodities.   Gold for example has risen every year for the last 7 and for 2007 it rose $US over 30%.


----------



## barrett

Kauri, Wavepicker, thanks for posting your EW outlooks.  

Wavepicker, from a contrarian point of view, this wave 5 may be winning over the last converts from the short term bears, like me capitulating and going long the other night at 826.

The arguments for a more meaningful correction in gold as Marc Faber puts it, in the first half of this year are still persuasive in my view.  Anyone who sees this as doom and gloom, take a glass half full look..  it costs about $5K to buy around $100K worth of gold in the futures market, so even if you're heavily invested in gold stocks as I am, a big decline in gold can be a great buying opportunity.  

The current front page article at http://www.truecontrarian.com/** sums up some of the bearish arguments, but briefly a more complete list:

- contracting liquidity in financial markets greatly increases demand for cash.. central banks are fighting this but they never win at first, because of the lag effect;
- notable insider selling of gold stocks at early Nov peak.. insider buying nearly altogether absent the past 6 months;
- commercials remain heavily net short gold, speculators heavily long;
- gold stocks substantially underperforming gold (Friday night HUI still 10% under early Nov peak yet POG approx same);
- gold stocks not yet flashing conclusive buy signal (XAU:gold ratio still >0.19)
- silver lagging;
- very positive articles on gold appearing in many major newspapers, and Perth mint 'overwhelmed' with applications from individual investors in recent weeks, analysts and journalists all seem bullish on gold;
- December Economist magazine cover 'The Panic in the Dollar', marking its turning point upwards consistent with contracting liquidity and rock bottom sentiment;

I see the above as supporting wavepicker's EW chart.

For new followers of this thread, I was short-term bearish in September for some of the above reasons and was wrong as gold rallied to 845.  But the time tested signals of the COT, insider buying/selling, credit crunch, and stocks:bullion ratio have strengthened greatly since that time and the message they are giving in the face of investor bullishness is that the ultimate gold buying opportunity in 2008 is yet to come.

Currently long, in case I'm wrong - with a tight stop below my entry price.


**the author, Steven Jon Kaplan, has been following the gold market for over 30 years, and advised "buy aggressively" at -and only at- each of the three major bottoms in the current gold bull market - so IMO he's one of the very few gold market timing newsletters that has proven their worth.  He remains bearish until the above indicators show a bottom in place.


----------



## ithatheekret

ithatheekret said:


> Yes , Asian markets are the good buyers , but NY and Eur tend to take a portion off . Can we put a litmus of a $6 - $8 retracement down for those markets or a carry through ?
> 
> PS I took a mini @ $804 + change




I waited for a close above $810 , then the retracement , cream skimmers ...

This is why I posed the litmus test question .

I too was a short term bear , in fact nothing says this won't be retested once $841 comes up again . I think the low should be looked at as a range , not a price , due to the volatility . The greenback can hold its own and POG rise at the same time . Wait for the Dow restructuring , that will have a couple of tweaks for POG to work out too .

Physical still holds more appeal though now , the sub-prime paper mess tells me there more than likely allsorts of paper messes .................
and .... we hold all our own deeds , we've got that paper pile .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So on balance, nobody _really_ knows what tomorrow will bring. We can speculate & techulate (speculate on technicals????), but the holistic, big picture fundamental remains that Aus gold is trading at $950 an oz, and possibly about to break out.

It is true that the "outsiders" are now getting on the bandwagon, but this was always going to herald the start of phase 2 if you like, before the manic phase which finishes the bull. 

Newspaper story - 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22992237-643,00.html



> Mr Moffatt said the fast-rising price of the metal had not, as he would have expected, put investors off buying physical gold. Instead, it has spurred them on.
> "It triggers in their mind the idea that the train is about to leave the station and they had better get aboard," he said.




There are numerous classic signs apearing, not least the wall of worry, that gold is indeed entering the phase where we may throw away the rule book(s) and just go with the flow. 
Do we have to try and justify a gold price, from either a fundamental or technical perspective, when crowd momentum takes over?

Gold equities will play catch up. Buy the dips.


----------



## treefrog

GoldSeek.com 
Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators	Commercial	Total
Long	Short	Spreading	Long	Short	Long	Short
210,521	26,146	139,730	115,530	337,061	465,781	502,937
Change from Prior Reporting Period 
12,732	-1,370	8,683	4,310	16,234	25,725	23,547
Traders
169	52	42	35	46	227	123

 	Small Speculators	 	 	 
 	Long	Short	Open Interest	 	 
 	51,239	14,083	517,020	 	 
 	-3,706	-1,528	22,019	 	 
 	non reportable positions	Change from the previous reporting period	 
COT Gold Report - Positions as of 	Monday, December 24, 2007


----------



## treefrog

this is more pretty:
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1198874518.php


----------



## barrett

All valid points you made Uncle Festivus, it could go your way..

Also I should clarify my futures position...
- a small long position now, to build on if gold defies my expectation and moves upward;
- a willingness to go out on a limb with a big position if gold does as I expect and corrects.


----------



## IFocus

rederob said:


> There are "some", but they are not useful.
> The silver market was being manipulated by the Hunt's and came crashing down - only speculation kept it rising as the Hunt's were trying to buy all the world's silver, it seemed.
> Middle East uncertainty has been running for 2 millennium, and last century few recall Nasser taking control of the Suez canal, let alone subsequent Israeli-Lebanon/Palestinian skirmishes.
> While it is true that oil prices rose substantially back then, the cause was market manipulation again - nothing to do with fundamental supply and demand dynamics.
> Presently gold supply is in deficit to the market, made up through "above ground" sales, such as through Central Banks.
> Presently oil supply is in deficit, made up through refining additional consensates.
> Presently there is a spectre of global recession, or at least a subprime meltdown that will impact the US severely.
> Presently there is a flight to safety from funds, concerned that even "cash" may not withstand a subprime catastrophe.
> Presently the benefits of going into gold, on balance, make far more sense than in the late 70s early 80s.
> Top that off with a chart pattern that, as you suggest, kicks into the $1000+ range before its next period of consolidation.




Rederob is India still the largest consumers of gold? as the Indian economy grows I assume so will the consumption under pinning the price


----------



## Miner

IFocus said:


> Rederob is India still the largest consumers of gold? as the Indian economy grows I assume so will the consumption under pinning the price




If I could insert some thing though question was not for me here. The answer is probably India is the second largest consumer. I remember Peter Lalor (when he was MD of  Sons of Gwalia) commenting that India imports more gold than Australia produces. WIth a very high escalation of sudden riches in India and with increased GDP (+7 %)  the demand for gold has gone up considerably. Indian women love gold jewelleries on 22 ct (not 14 or 18 ct gold in Australia). Sorry but if you are a reasonably well off Indian parent then your status is reflected by the amount of gold jewelleries you offer to your daughter and your wife wears in any festivity !
One distinct sign is the more than 100% increase in opening of new gold jewellery shops in all major Indian cities in last 12 months and the rush in each of the shops - unbelievable. Seeing is believing.
However Chinese women also wear gold a lot and with a larger population they come first. My research could be obsolete (disclaimer).

Sorry if I have intervened here.


----------



## Real1ty

Miner said:


> If I could insert some thing though question was not for me here. The answer is probably India is the second largest consumer. I remember Peter Lalor (when he was MD of  Sons of Gwalia) commenting that India imports more gold than Australia produces. WIth a very high escalation of sudden riches in India and with increased GDP (+7 %)  the demand for gold has gone up considerably. Indian women love gold jewelleries on 22 ct (not 14 or 18 ct gold in Australia). Sorry but if you are a reasonably well off Indian parent then your status is reflected by the amount of gold jewelleries you offer to your daughter and your wife wears in any festivity !
> One distinct sign is the more than 100% increase in opening of new gold jewellery shops in all major Indian cities in last 12 months and the rush in each of the shops - unbelievable. Seeing is believing.
> However Chinese women also wear gold a lot and with a larger population they come first. My research could be obsolete (disclaimer).
> 
> Sorry if I have intervened here.




The high Gold price has been starting to have an effect on Indian imports.

The last 2 months have seen lower imports and scrap gold imports have risen.

This is despite it being the peak buying season.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aLpkOyImoxEI&refer=india


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> I'm not really sure how you are reading that indicator whiskers... It is still reading a buy to me. The adx has bottomed at indicator support and is turning, although that momentum has appeared to weaken.
> 
> The +dmi is still way above the -dmi, which is still a long signal, but the adx is not above the -dmi level. So to me it indicates  gold has a bit of a way to go, but perhaps wont be anywhere near as strong as previous moves. It's one of the very few indicators I use for trend trades, and I've found it quite useful.
> 
> This is all on AUD gold by the way.




Yeah Chops, I agree the signals are still buy, or at least hold... haven't turned sell yet in $US. I haven't looked at the $A chart for awhile.

What I am looking at is the potential for further movement in either direction, given the DMI's are an average of trade outside the previous peroids trading range. 

I didn't print the ADX on my chart but it had just trended up above the level of the +DMI since late Nov.

The -DMI was trending down the page, ie loosing strength when the Bulls were well in control. Most trade was above the previous trading range. Then it turned in Nov to trend parallel with the axis at historic levels. The +DMI has since lost strength and can theoritically go much stronger again. But for that rise to be sustained there would need to be a significant trade above the previous periods trade. That would turn the -DMI down the page (weaker). 

That is where I see the problem. Because the -DMI has changed trend and been tracking parallel at historic levels lately suggests to me that unless something quite out of the ordinary happens to force the POG up, in which case I think the retrace will be amplified, it is destined to weaken some before there is potential for a considerable rise again. I suppose it is consistant with the EW's impulse wave.


----------



## So_Cynical

USD 843 and climbing....this could be it.:alcohol:

com on NY


----------



## Whiskers

So_Cynical said:


> USD 843 and climbing....this could be it.:alcohol:
> 
> com on NY




NY futures in green so far and FTSE going steady at about +40.

There seems to be an expectation that a report to be released soon will show US oil inventories falling for a seventh month. VIENNA, Austria (AP)

I'm not optermistic of it rocketing too far from here, but it would be good too see it hang around up here and get one last little Bully run in with the shares to clear my gold stocks on. 

It's just having a bit of a breather at the moment. Pretty hard work pushing up from here.


----------



## explod

Darn, seems to be going up, propbly make  those gold shares go up more too. Struth, soonasyaturnyaback and go to bed, up like a rocket


----------



## Whiskers

Well, there goes the recent high. Tops $848.30 as I write.

Just hope it hangs up here for a couple of days. 

PS: Hope those gold share do go up now, Explod.


----------



## ithatheekret

It's hit $843 hey , well wait , because I think my play is turning out , that means at least something above the comfort zone of $840 . Say $849/$850/$851  

now that would be nice ............ late christmas


----------



## Miner

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=159&ContentID=52880
Please see attached document if you do not mind.

Regards


----------



## numbercruncher

Good to see optimism again building!

I thought I was sensing Gold Bulls turning sceptical in this thread.

My humble opinion, If Gold crashes from these levels, everything else crashes too, so gold purchasing power is always maintained.


----------



## Poker

28 year high. Can it maintain this level...?


----------



## numbercruncher

Poker said:


> 28 year high. Can it maintain this level...?





Adjusted for "modern" Inflation measuring standards and other accountancy tricks ...



28 years ago in 1980, Gold averaged about $600 per oz and oil about $30 per barrel, Gold in 1980s oil dollars should be around $1800.


----------



## Kauri

Not a reason to short... or even to close out longs... just at a juncture where *change is possible*..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Whiskers said:


> NY futures in green so far and FTSE going steady at about +40.
> 
> 
> I'm not optermistic of it rocketing too far from here, but it would be good too see it hang around up here and get one last little Bully run in with the shares to clear my gold stocks on.




Hey Whiskers, I'm with you on a likely short term correction but can I just relate an experience I had selling out of nearly all my gold stocks in December 05, not so well reasoned at the time, but.. watching them soar another 30% through to April 06 was psychologically far worse than taking some paper losses in the short term would have been..  That's why I don't sell my shares, even with all the historical patterns and technical indicators..   Just my  & I'm sure you have your own reasons, but a gold bug out of the market... not an experience I'm dying to repeat


----------



## ithatheekret

Well thar' she blows $860 top so far dipped back to $856


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Well thar' she blows $860 top so far dipped back to $856




Totally detached from the US markets, which is incredibly bullish. Looks to have formed (to me in the very short term) a bullish retrace.

Might be an interesting night for me I think.


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep , doing its own thang .

So too Soybean both floor and electronic price , made a killing on those and wheat . Grabbed the YWH8 mini @ 882 and its nudged 915 .

Soybean I think has just thrown a mega year high . I have $864 as the high on the gold mini , but I did see oil hit $100 for real .


----------



## refined silver

Like I said, shorting gold now is like trying to pick up pennies in front of a jet proprelled steam roller. 

Without understanding the true fundamentals and trading accordingly, TA will at best break even and most people will lose money.

Just think, at this point, basically every gold short position in history (still open), is currently under water and losing money.


----------



## ithatheekret

My wife told me Jim Cramer was on CNBC saying he was selling it , something about they keep buying I keep selling .......  ya know I doubt he is though , the only thing he's short on is credibility . 

Now he a staples bull , don't make reservations for him , he's always late to the party ...............


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> Like I said, shorting gold now is like trying to pick up pennies in front of a jet proprelled steam roller.
> 
> Without understanding the true fundamentals and trading accordingly, TA will at best break even and most people will lose money.
> 
> Just think, at this point, basically every gold short position in history (still open), is currently under water and losing money.





Yeh, one of em told me that I was too confident for my own good.  I was only trying to explain for their own good.   I lost too much in the past to ever be overconfident.  I aint' losing now cause I let the market tell me what to do.

I think perhaps some have to make it into rocket science to make it look like they are perhaps doing something clever.

Anyway, cant go back to sleep now so may as well give my 2 cents.

Cheers to all the patient gold bugs and welcome to the news ones.


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah Barret, I see what you mean. It's a tough call to make. But I will only be selling gainers where I think they have had their best for now and sitting on that cash for a bit.  

For me I think I would feel worse if I didn't take my profits when they present and watch it wither back down to par in a significant retrace. I seem to have done that a bit too often. 

I got out before the 87 crash, put it into rental property and picked up 50% there. No doubt a bit of luck involved, and I may be getting a bit cocky, but I think I am learning to help make my own luck to some extent. 

Not saying 87 will repeat, but I haven't made the most of the latest retraces because of not keeping enough cash, but still doubled my little portfolio. 

I have been dealing heavily in the spec end and a few I have an eye on are new floats and a couple that need a bit of time for new management to sort a few things out. So If the market doesn't come back as I expect, I have some of these to turn too. 

I'm also getting a bit of a feel for expanding my investing/trading into a wider range of products to trade the market both ways. Thats the main reason I am hanging around on threads like this. 

Bludy good to see POG take off, but gunna live by my new years resolution... not to get too caught-up in the emotions and have a look at things again later. 

With the Dow and Nasdag well down it takes the gloss off a bit and makes for an interesting day here tomorrow.

Just looking on the hourly... that was a stellar performance, but must be about done for now.


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Yep , doing its own thang .
> 
> So too Soybean both floor and electronic price , made a killing on those and wheat . Grabbed the YWH8 mini @ 882 and its nudged 915 .
> 
> Soybean I think has just thrown a mega year high . I have $864 as the high on the gold mini , but I did see oil hit $100 for real .



Was that on the pit contract? Because I can't see it online...



ithatheekret said:


> My wife told me Jim Cramer was on CNBC saying he was selling it , something about they keep buying I keep selling .......  ya know I doubt he is though , the only thing he's short on is credibility .
> 
> Now he a staples bull , don't make reservations for him , he's always late to the party ...............




ROFL!

I'd be looking for gold to roll about $5 from here. We'll see how much strength there is in that and oil, which looks to be rolling as well.

Looks like most of the good R/R trades are done for the night. Time to test some new strategies me thinks. 

P.S. - oil is now rolling over.


----------



## ithatheekret

The 100 oil was an open cry trade , saw it on my news streamer .


----------



## ithatheekret

Here's the CLG8 Chops


----------



## ithatheekret

Here's the mini , top here is 99.58 I believe .


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Here's the CLG8 Chops




Nice...

That's one for the non-existent kiddies. Lol!


----------



## ithatheekret

Feb08 has dropped back to 99.15

March08 is saw 99.30 but looks to be settle around the same as the Feb price around 99.15 .

I wonder whether they'll admit to stagflation now , oil , grains and more pain .


----------



## ithatheekret

Come to think of it those grain rises will affect cattle prices , especially if they start shoving more calves into feed lots . Might be a short there .


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Come to think of it those grain rises will affect cattle prices , especially if they start shoving more calves into feed lots . Might be a short there .




It already has. Apparently a large part of China's inflation is rising pork prices.


----------



## ithatheekret

Really , not that it shouldn't surprise us , they must consume a lot of it hey .

Chops I don't know if I'm right here , but I saw Brent @ 96.75 (earlier on ), I don't think we've visited there before , not that I can remember .

Is that a new all time high for Brent ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Ooooh oooh  6.15 AM here , nearly Cramer time . Can't miss this , it makes my day , such a clown , and his old mate ...... there's no recession out there .

That's cos it's jammed up his a*** hiding from Jims sunshine


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Really , not that it shouldn't surprise us , they must consume a lot of it hey .
> 
> Chops I don't know if I'm right here , but I saw Brent @ 96.75 , I don't think we've visited there before , not that I can remember .
> 
> Is that a new all time high for Brent ?




Yeah, it says on some news that that is a record. With the dow rejecting an attempt on that December low, I think the markets are in real trouble.


----------



## explod

Significant that the gold price is now moving against the Dow.  The rising silver price indicates this rally may have some legs.  NEM up 7% too.


----------



## rederob

The pm gold fix of $850 on 21 January 1980 remains intact for the moment - only because the UK markets closed earlier that US trading, thereby leaving us with $846.75 to reckon with on 2 January 2008.
Gold consolidated into US trading hours and has remained firmly at or above $855 since.
With oil tipping $100 and closing in the high $99 range it is unlikely gold will retreat to any significant degree near term.


----------



## Real1ty

Check out all the "am" activity in this thread, what could have ignited such enthusiasm.........

It will be interesting to see what the gold stocks will do today considering we are going to have a pretty down day in Aus also.


----------



## barrett

mmm it was a great night to be very long if not completely loaded to the gills..  I was expecting the Chinese to be all over this market today with the all time high but not so far, just consolidating on HK market.. Techies, are things still looking bullish to pick some more up in the mid-low 850's?  Hopefully this breakout will put a turbocharge on wave 5


----------



## numbercruncher

Do the central banks have any gold left ? maybe only paper sitting in those vaults


----------



## ithatheekret

numbercruncher said:


> Do the central banks have any gold left ? maybe only paper sitting in those vaults





They must have NC , all Central interbank settlements are transacted in gold bullion . Have done since Adam was a boy , even if he was a naughty one .


----------



## Kauri

A bit of boxing on the stairs?? how many rounds I wonder???  
Cheers
............kauri


----------



## cuttlefish

ithatheekret said:


> They must have NC , all Central interbank settlements are transacted in gold bullion . Have done since Adam was a boy , even if he was a naughty one .




ithatheekret - could you clarify what you mean by this statement?  What type of central bank intrabank settlements are done in gold bullion?  (I thought the abolition of the gold standard did away with this sort of thing)


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> A bit of boxing on the stairs?? how many rounds I wonder???
> Cheers
> ............kauri




Maybe it is reaching for the sky hook, everything else is having a bit of swing.  "The trend is your friend untill the bend" or similar.  Enjoy the ride while it goes.

Our market down about 60, primary gold stocks up about 5%, not bad for the start of the game.


----------



## ithatheekret

cuttlefish said:


> ithatheekret - could you clarify what you mean by this statement?  What type of central bank intrabank settlements are done in gold bullion?  (I thought the abolition of the gold standard did away with this sort of thing)





Hi Cuttlefish , 

It's a pretty basic principal , mainly due to levels of autonomy in Central Banks some are owned and governed by the State , some are mildly independent , others like the Reserve and the ECB have greater degrees of independence .

Some nations are not exactly AAA stuff and we need an insurance policy for the goods they order etc. , just to put it in a simple theory .

They need their central bank to settle all trades , which goes through BIS and due to their status BIS would have reserves held and swapped in association with each transaction .

BIS is the Bank for International Settlements or the Central Bankers , Central Banker . Its a settlement house much like London for trade goods etc., but for Central Banks , where they get together over a few beers every couple of months and get sub committee after sub committee to nut things out . It's been around since the 30's just after the Hague Agreements and head office is in Basel , Switzerland .

There are other similar entities set up to carry out the same stabilization as BIS , but it would be the more prominent, I would presume , unless they've rewritten the rule book again .

Below is a link C/- Wikipedia on more info related to its structuring and duties etc. etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Must be a sign of the times, but I remember the last time gold was at this level it was making the news almost every night. Stories about old grannies bringing out the family heirlooms to be melted down etc. Today, doesn't even get a mention on TV, maybe the odd newspaper snippet. Just shows the effects of inflation that gold @ $850 still doesn't elicit a reaction from the general public - only buys half an LCD TV these days.

Now $1000 would be a nice big number to grab attention maybe, but $2000 (the inflation adjusted price) would ensure a frenzy.

The fundamentals continue to improve for gold, if not for humanity in general. If the central banks 'loan' frenzy end up turning into bail outs then monetary debasement will not only continue but accelerate. Rumours about a hedge fund in trouble again.

One last correlation yet to be broken, that with the oil price.

Scumbag "run of the mill" stocks dragging the secondary golds down with them today, another disconnection required apon THE big number being breached?

I just hope Today Tonight or A Current Affair don't do a story on the "gold mania" any time soon - it would surely indicate it would be time to sell .


----------



## So_Cynical

I remember the Metal detector craze back in the 80,s when gold was this price...i suppose the difference 
is the buying power of $850 has changed significantly.

Anyway great day for me and my heavily gold slanted portfolio
up about 5% for the day...


----------



## cuttlefish

ithatheekret said:


> Hi Cuttlefish ,
> 
> It's a pretty basic principal , mainly due to levels of autonomy in Central Banks some are owned and governed by the State , some are mildly independent , others like the Reserve and the ECB have greater degrees of independence .
> 
> Some nations are not exactly AAA stuff and we need an insurance policy for the goods they order etc. , just to put it in a simple theory .
> 
> They need their central bank to settle all trades , which goes through BIS and due to their status BIS would have reserves held and swapped in association with each transaction .
> 
> BIS is the Bank for International Settlements or the Central Bankers , Central Banker . Its a settlement house much like London for trade goods etc., but for Central Banks , where they get together over a few beers every couple of months and get sub committee after sub committee to nut things out . It's been around since the 30's just after the Hague Agreements and head office is in Basel , Switzerland .
> 
> There are other similar entities set up to carry out the same stabilization as BIS , but it would be the more prominent, I would presume , unless they've rewritten the rule book again .
> 
> Below is a link C/- Wikipedia on more info related to its structuring and duties etc. etc.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements




thanks - but do the settlements have to be in gold? (the BIS only has reserves of 700 tonnes of gold according to the wikipedia article). I thought they were more frequency settled in other currencies (as I understood it the US dollar was a reserve currency and this was the change that occurred when the gold standard was abolished).


----------



## ithatheekret

The gold doesn't have to move from certain countries , take for example the BoE it has its own reserves as many Central Banks do . ( And holds reserves for other countries it trades with etc. )

I think your referring to the RTGS ( real time gross settlements ) these are performed through each countries system . ie. England has CHAP , US has FedWire , Canada has LVTS , Israel has Zahav and we have RITS in Aust.

It is used primarily to subdue risk in settlements of high value , it is electronic settlement , but not designed for massive volume .

There's another system too . Which settles at the end of each day , but RTGS is settled through a Central Bank as an interbank exchange , much like a sponsored trading account .

Gold stays in play because of variations in Intraday Liquidity and Cash Reserve Ratios along with a few other hiccups they [Banks] don't like to talk about publicly . Along with the troubles of dealing with unstable countries .

You can be sure that since Bretton Woods and before  , gold has been strategically sidelined . Imagine if they devalued it completely ..... they got darn close to , until the US had accumulated enough @ $35 .
Bretton Woods was suppose to help stabilize currency swaps etc. then they strayed again , and are in a worst place than back then .

Would the last financial crisis happened had the regime of Bretton Woods been upheld ?  That's a question I doubt we could ever really get the nittys on , if we did , sub-prime would be like a stumped toe rather than the axing it is. 

Do we have accurate data and figures from every country that likes printers ?


Devaluation cries by Treasurers , means they can't afford to pay their bills and would prefer just to print money . This is where the pen is mightier than the sword , one signature can send basic goods and services haywire .


----------



## cuttlefish

thanks ithatheekrat.  I just read the wikipedia entry on brenton woods - a very interesting read, though I'm now totally confused as to the current state of play! (especially the china fixed exchange rate situation for example and how that ties into it all). I'll sleep on it and read through it again tomorrow.


----------



## refined silver

Gold up another $9, COT open interest near record levels. 

The Commercial shorts also at near record levels and every single one is under water and bleeding badly and gettign worse. So much for the suposed "smart" and Ã¯nfallible" Commercials.

When they have to cover then you'll see some fireworks.


----------



## barrett

refined silver said:


> Gold up another $9, COT open interest near record levels.
> 
> The Commercial shorts also at near record levels and every single one is under water and bleeding badly and gettign worse. So much for the suposed "smart" and ïnfallible" Commercials.
> 
> When they have to cover then you'll see some fireworks.




In nearly all cases the commercials produce gold and the shorts just mean they've just settled for a lower price to sell it at.. bit of a letdown for shareholders but that's about it, no?  Except for the odd basket case situation like Croesus or Highland where they're forced to pull stumps, or Anglo with a massive hedge book.  Those have mainly been weeded out and for every short-coverer I reckon there'll be two selling short.  I expect by this Friday's COT report the commercials will have increased their net short position.  

Anglogold is one of the last few with big hedging problems, last reported mark to market value of their hedge book was negative US$3.8 bil on Oct 31’s $784/oz, & they've finally decided to buy it all back.. ouch.  But I don't see the commercials short covering just for the most part selling gold into their contracts


----------



## refined silver

barrett said:


> In nearly all cases the commercials produce gold and the shorts just mean they've just settled for a lower price to sell it at..
> 
> Sorry, Barrett, thats totally incorrect. Bullion banks and the like are the major shorts, not gold producers. For the last 7 years producers have been reducing hedges put on in the 90s and early 00s, In the last 6 months NCM have had to raise funds to buy back $2b worth of hedges, Barrick the same, but still have huge hedging left (their last Q report was misread by many as closing out all hedges, that isn't what it said at all.) So with all these gold miners reducing hedges drastically the increase in open interest in the Commercials can't and didn't come from the miners.
> 
> I expect by this Friday's COT report the commercials will have increased their net short position.




Yes I agree. Many of the shorts are working for the Central Banks, monetary authorities and powers that be and don't want an out of control gold price signalling the system is breaking down. I doubt they are throwing in the towel yet, I just said it would be fireworks when they do. And when they do they will just retreat to another line in the sand and try to take a stand there. I doubt this is the final capitulation by any means. There is a loooooong way to go yet.


----------



## refined silver

Sorry, posted an answer inside a quotation in the last post, which makes for more difficult reading.


----------



## chops_a_must

Looked like a massive selling spike right at the top. Wouldn't want to be long gold into tomorrow I am thinking...


----------



## ithatheekret

I moved out of my mini $804 took 868.55 , said thankyou too .

It doesn't feel the same as holding the real thing to me though .

Crappers on , I mean Cramer


----------



## ithatheekret

PS.. should be a good day here tom.( lol today ) a batch of base metals have risen , oils off 50cents or so around $99 . The S&P safety net came out and there's still at least a $5-$7 rise to be knocked off gold yet .

Don't know about banks though , only got the courage up to look at two majors .


----------



## Whiskers

The US still has a good hoard of gold according to this. They have not reduced their holding as much as some eg the UK, while Russia and China have considerably increased.

It seems Aus disposed of a lot in 1997. Was that one of the Howard gov's first sacrifical lambs to feed the pork barrel? What are the ramifications of that?

For a country supposedly running as a debt based banking system, the US seems to have a high percentage of gold in reserves. Can someone elaaborate on this?

I presume there might be more 'unoffical' gold stocks at the disposal of the PPT.


----------



## ithatheekret

ithatheekret said:


> PS.. should be a good day here tom.( lol today ) a batch of base metals have risen , oils off 50cents or so around $99 . The S&P safety net came out and there's still at least a $5-$7 rise to be knocked off gold yet .
> 
> Don't know about banks though , only got the courage up to look at two majors .





Scratch the safety net on the S&P , gone negative and just 5 points off that 1440 region , just below that , is their chit , shock and shudder territory and a breach of 11425 is sphincter reactions , fainting and pants soiling material .


----------



## ithatheekret

One for the bugs and one I bet you haven't picked up on :

Take careful note of the Swissies range , then compare it to POG .( 2 years will do , try 12mths also )

You will note that POG outperforms the Swissie and this is not only rare , but an extremely bullish outlook on gold looking forward , corrections will be part of the moves , but I am now firmly a GOLD BULL .

Please look at the charts and overlay the prices , it will amaze you and then show it to those who label you a heretic , dillusional or off with the fairies for being a staunch bug . Today heralds a new beginning for gold .

I can add further to this on a few other currencies of note , but the Swissie alone on this last data for POG has blown it out of the squares parameters .
This is a rare semaphore , like a comet that comes around every millenium .


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> Take careful note of the Swissies range , then compare it to POG .( 2 years will do , try 12mths also )



Sounds exciting but not sure exactly what to look for in the charts here.. you're saying compare USDCHF and XAUUSD, right?


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> One for the bugs and one I bet you haven't picked up on :
> 
> Take careful note of the Swissies range , then compare it to POG .( 2 years will do , try 12mths also )
> 
> You will note that POG outperforms the Swissie and this is not only rare , but an extremely bullish outlook on gold looking forward , corrections will be part of the moves , but I am now firmly a GOLD BULL .
> 
> Please look at the charts and overlay the prices , it will amaze you and then show it to those who label you a heretic , dillusional or off with the fairies for being a staunch bug . Today heralds a new beginning for gold .
> 
> I can add further to this on a few other currencies of note , but the Swissie alone on this last data for POG has blown it out of the squares parameters .
> This is a rare semaphore , like a comet that comes around every millenium .





Is this what we are after, can only find a 1 or 5 year chart, have opted for the latter, hop this helps:-


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep , that's the one explod , we can get a hatrick too , CAD and EUR are pretty good to add on the two year frame . CAD being rather interesting , Skippy has a bit of work to do .


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> Yep , that's the one explod , we can get a hatrick too , CAD and EUR are pretty good to add on the two year frame . CAD being rather interesting , Skippy has a bit of work to do .




Hope this does it, Kitco dont, have a 2 year,  cheers:-


----------



## explod

And the Euro:-


----------



## barrett

Thanks Explod, yes, very bullish to see gold break out in all these major currencies ithatheekret, is that the feature of these charts you're referring to?


----------



## barrett

refined silver said:


> Originally Posted by barrett
> In nearly all cases the commercials produce gold and the shorts just mean they've just settled for a lower price to sell it at..
> 
> Sorry, Barrett, thats totally incorrect. Bullion banks and the like are the major shorts, not gold producers. For the last 7 years producers have been reducing hedges put on in the 90s and early 00s, In the last 6 months NCM have had to raise funds to buy back $2b worth of hedges, Barrick the same, but still have huge hedging left (their last Q report was misread by many as closing out all hedges, that isn't what it said at all.) So with all these gold miners reducing hedges drastically the increase in open interest in the Commercials can't and didn't come from the miners.
> 
> 
> I expect by this Friday's COT report the commercials will have increased their net short position.
> 
> Yes I agree. Many of the shorts are working for the Central Banks, monetary authorities and powers that be and don't want an out of control gold price signalling the system is breaking down. I doubt they are throwing in the towel yet, I just said it would be fireworks when they do. And when they do they will just retreat to another line in the sand and try to take a stand there. I doubt this is the final capitulation by any means. There is a loooooong way to go yet.




Hi Silver, 
You're right, as well as the producers the commercial shorts do include an unknown proportion of banks and dealers such as bullion banks, and central banks selling short.  Some players will be getting badly squeezed and a default at some point would not be surprising (though would a crisis not more likely be resolved by cash settlement, bailouts etc. than the authorities allowing a massive run on the gold market?)

The activities of other industry insiders like bullion banks don't alter the solid 36-year track record of extreme values in the commercial net short positions in gold for predicting the future direction of the gold price.  In gold this indicator, while not infallible, is more reliable than in any other commodity or currency. Here is an article by a credible COT skeptic on the subject.. http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/COT.htm  I'm open to all lines of argument but I've not yet heard a convincing one that it's different this time and the COT should be entirely ignored..

A large commercial short position like we have now indicates a high probability of a pullback in the gold price, typically the larger the short position, the deeper and harder the correction. The catch is that it doesn't tell us when the correction will occur. Only that there is a strong likelihood of lower prices to come.

Gold could still go considerably higher in the meantime, and I am long comex gold and looking to buy more soon for a potential run into the high 800's.  I'm not going to fight this long term bull, just always on the lookout for a discount if one's coming    Cheers Barrett


----------



## barrett

Here's my (beginner's) count of wave 3 of the impulse wave that began on 3 Dec 07 at 776, that being wave 5 of the impulse wave that began on 26 June 07 at 637.

If the count in this chart is correct and wave 3 of wave 5 is complete we might reasonably now expect:

1) ten days or so of consolidation in wave 4 of wave 5, probably holding above 845
2) an explosive wave 5 of wave 5 taking gold into the high 800's or even 900 by February 

Just my guess at this point, comments welcome
Barrett

Thanks to 'kauri trading' thread for charting software


----------



## rederob

barrett said:


> Thanks Explod, yes, very bullish to see gold break out in all these major currencies ithatheekret, is that the feature of these charts you're referring to?




I think the point is that gold has only really been "strong" in USD.
If gold is a safe haven, then other currencies will be buying gold because it's still comparatively cheap.
Furthermore, the technicals in other currencies suggest that (so long as the USD value remains steady) the "breakout is just starting its run north.  Accordinly, POG in USD should climb well over $900 before any significant retrace.


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:


> Accordinly, POG in USD should climb well over $900 before any significant retrace.




I disagree red. We went parabolic last night with a massive sell spike. It now looks like we are getting an island reversal. Will be trading this to the downside tonight.


----------



## rederob

chops_a_must said:


> I disagree red. We went parabolic last night with a massive sell spike. It now looks like we are getting an island reversal. Will be trading this to the downside tonight.




Island reversal?
We must be looking at different charts - I don't get an island in the past 3 months for gold daily (it's as far back as I looked!).
We just broke through a 2-month period of consolidation and are on a rising tide fuelled by strong oil prices.
The current breakout should stretch out a little longer.
But it's neither here nor there for my gold investments, which truly are long term.
Fly on, gold.....


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:


> Island reversal?
> We must be looking at different charts - I don't get an island in the past 3 months for gold daily (it's as far back as I looked!).
> We just broke through a 2-month period of consolidation and are on a rising tide fuelled by strong oil prices.
> The current breakout should stretch out a little longer.
> But it's neither here nor there for my gold investments, which truly are long term.
> Fly on, gold.....




Sorry, I'm flying blind at the moment with gold... Probably couldn't have picked a worse night either.

The whipsaw a little while back probably threw everything out the window anyway.


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Scratch the safety net on the S&P , gone negative and just 5 points off that 1440 region , just below that , is their chit , shock and shudder territory and a breach of 11425 is sphincter reactions , fainting and pants soiling material .




Yep. Looks like the December lows are going to get a workout tonight. Given the Dow has been strongly rejected when trying to come up above each time, I'd expect the S&P to give out, eventually.


----------



## barrett

You had the right idea chops, just a pity about that false breakout..  I can't get over how many longs jumped in at 862.. their sell stops seem to have punctured the 2-week uptrend.  Bit early to call yet but I reckon this triple top is probably it for wave 3.


----------



## chops_a_must

barrett said:


> You had the right idea chops, just a pity about that false breakout..  I can't get over how many longs jumped in at 862.. their sell stops seem to have punctured the 2-week uptrend.  Bit early to call yet but I reckon this triple top is probably it for wave 3.




Well, thanks to IB it looks like I missed out on about $1100 on that trade alone, in very short time. But I can't tell, because I no longer have feed into my charts.


----------



## ithatheekret

Onya Explod , well done mate . 

If you look at the CAD then the Euro chart you will see why I posed the the query on the comfort of $840 , ( calling 841.75 the low ) , don't worry I'm rock proof , told a couple of mates that are brokers they laughed at me ..... then took me for drinks last night ...... I won a bet . Note I have an $839 too in my figures which are 839 842 848 , I think close to one of these will be the next base price . My pricings are based on the Euro gold price not a USD price , I even went against it in the Swissie for a tad , it didn't last long and the profit was small . When I went over the charts to pickout any mistakes I must have had a POG chart up already and overlaid it accidentally , so I did a few more and then hurriedly moved on the Swissie . The Swissie is the test case for most plays against the USD , I know the Euro is the next reserve in line , but the Swissie semaphore the moves , whether good or nasty . The other currencies are blocked up with speculation , the Swissie is my fear monitor .

My pricing calculations have always managed a laugh somewhere along the line , especially when I told them to short the lot it was easier and safer , they laughed again , but I did note after a few bevvies that the S&P chat itself last night , new undies there . Bit like the 6200 test we had here , I had a dinner on that one , still waiting for it too , Grouchos is fully booked up apparently , so it might have to be the Cork and Cleaver   ( that must say something about wallet constraints in Adelaide )

You think that's good , one chap who lost because the Dow has now moved under 13000 , has to streak past channel 7 down by the river at Gilberton . 

I will do my utmost to catch it on camera . His girlfriend who has jeans without hips , has to cut up her favourite jeans and supply the Salvos with 5 new blankets , that won't be cheap , one from each of us

A bet is a bet .


----------



## Nyden

Oy, gold bugs! 

I was just wondering how you true-believers expose yourselves to gold? Do you go for traded stocks that represent physical gold, or mining companies?

Know of any goldies paying half decent dividends? As I only want dividend paying stocks at the moment. I'm currently leaning towards NEM, but need to do further research on their assets.


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Oy, gold bugs!
> 
> I was just wondering how you true-believers expose yourselves to gold? Do you go for traded stocks that represent physical gold, or mining companies?
> 
> Know of any goldies paying half decent dividends? As I only want dividend paying stocks at the moment. I'm currently leaning towards NEM, but need to do further research on their assets.




Cant advise but what I have is of my total trading capital I have 50% in gold and silver bullion (in a bank vault.)  If needed I can retrieve and turn it into cash in an hour.   The other 50% is on shares, mostly in gold and my blue chip holdings are in order of my preference, AVO and LGL, midcap SBM and specs SRI and RNG.    Almost pulled the plug on half my gold stocks yesterday as I feel a gold correction is near, it held off overnight which gives breathing space.   I do like to sell off some in the peaks and go back in the dips but this can be a hard one to get right.  Thinking of reducing my Bullion % as the gold stocks contiue to outperform and consensis seems to suggest this may continue.   Having said that the bullion has improved 10% this last month, but after travelling sideways for the last 18 months.   Made more than 100% from shares in the same period so that says a lot.

I purchase my Bullion directly from Johnson Matthey's.   But I think electronic purchases by and held by the Perth Mint is highly regarded.

NEM is a very good solid performer with dividend, (I dont bother chasing dividends but had one turn up the other day from NEM)  only got out recently as it appears our Aussies are doing better and from bitter experience I do not like offshore whilst our dollar looks to continue its upward bias.   Another solid for newcomers would be NCM, Newcrest, went up 10% I think on thursday. 

Hope this helps, just my way.   Warren Buffet says, "do not buy anything you do not understand"


----------



## So_Cynical

Nyden said:


> Oy, gold bugs!
> 
> I was just wondering how you true-believers expose yourselves to gold? Do you go for traded stocks that represent physical gold, or mining companies?
> 
> Know of any goldies paying half decent dividends? As I only want dividend paying stocks at the moment. I'm currently leaning towards NEM, but need to do further research on their assets.




TRY Troy resources pays dividends.


----------



## Miner

Some extract from Kaplan's newsletter probbaly suggesting gold is going to be bearish!

"This is update #541 for Friday evening, January 4, 2008.



The U.S. dollar index fell sharply after the U.S. unemployment report was initially announced, but it later recovered more than 3/4 of its losses to officially settle modestly lower.  Then, after the official settlement time, it continued to move higher in the late afternoon and early evening, so that the U.S. dollar index closed trading with a small net gain on the day.  (Many futures contracts settle one or more hours before the stock market closes for the day.)

Historically, the U.S. dollar usually rises substantially during any global economic slowdown as it becomes a perceived safe haven from declining equities and commodities.  This process has been slow to develop in recent months, since there remains a foolish but very popular myth that the rest of the world will somehow continue to enjoy double-digit growth even with the U.S. economy heading into likely recession within a few months.  As this fairy tale is inevitably smashed, the U.S. dollar index will respond by rallying for most or all of 2008.

The traders’ commitments for all commodity-based currencies, including the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, deteriorated during the past week.

In general, the pathetic recent performance of these currencies, which usually surge energetically whenever commodities are rallying, probably indicates that the January 2-3, 2008 upward spike in commodities was a two-day fluke rather than the beginning of a sustainable trend.

Today, all of the above currencies gave up several trading days’ worth of gains in a single session.  If the U.S. dollar index had been based solely upon these currencies, it would have enjoyed a powerful net gain in today’s trading.

The U.S. unemployment report showed various non-cheerful data such as only 18 thousand new jobs being created in December 2007, the unemployment rate rising from 4.7% to 5.0%, wages rising 0.4% in the past month and 3.7% year-over-year, etc.

Commodities and their shares were mostly lower.  *HUI, the Amex Index of Unhedged Gold Mining Shares, fell to an early morning low of 439.35 before closing down 5.56 at 443.75.  GDX slid to a mid-morning bottom of 49.28 before closing down 84 cents at 49.90.*
Gold’s traders’ commitments saw commercials adding 16,881 contracts to their already oversized net short position, thereby yielding a total net short position of 238,412.  *This is notably bearish*.  It should be kept in mind that the traders’ commitments are not a short-term timing tool; they don’t tell you when the price is going to move, but they let you know that once it begins to go in the direction that the commercials favor””in this case, lower””how many speculators’ stop-loss orders will be triggered on the way to its final extreme.  *Therefore, you can tell pretty accurately how far gold will plunge, once its move gets underway in earnest.  In this case, the final low for gold bullion is likely to be modestly below $700 per troy ounce, perhaps in the spring.*
Silver’s traders’ commitments also noticeably worsened, with commercials adding 4,079 to their net shorts to yield a total net short position of 56,498 contracts.

The traders’ commitments for crude oil showed commercials increasing their net short position by 34,382 contracts to a total net short position of 85,087 contracts.  This is a somewhat bearish development.  The traders’ commitments for crude oil do not have nearly as powerful a predictive ability as they do for gold, silver, or U.S. Treasuries.

The XAU/spot ratio is equal to 186.23/860.25 or .2165.  Wait patiently for this ratio to go below .19 before purchasing your favorite gold mining shares and funds including GDX."


Always do your own research (DYOR)


----------



## Miner

One more extract probably saying gold is going North!

"

Friday, January 04, 2008
Be on Guard With Silver and Gold for a Sudden Correction 
Gold Price Close Today : 863.10 
Gold Price Close December 28th : 839.60 
Change: 23.50 or 2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.346 
Silver Price Close December 28th: 14.77 
Change: 57.6 cents or 3.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.919


Be on guard with silver & gold for a sudden correction. Both have put in astounding performances this week, but be on guard anyway. Over the next 8 weeks or so gold ought to rally to at least $1,000 & on a spike might reach $1,200. Silver needs a swift kick to get going, although this week it hasn't danced badly. Still, this stage in a gold rally (halfway) is when silver usually begins to outpace gold. 

I fear 2008 will be a tougher year for reading markets than 2007 was -- mercy. *And full of bad surprises for those in stocks & real estate. Dollar will rally in the second quarter, but it won't hurt silver & gold much, as presently gold has broken out upside against the Euro *(that ridiculous Frankenstein currency with more holes, scars, and stitching than the ridiculous dollar) and has almost broken out against the Yen, another preposterous fiat currency backed by -- nothing!

What does that mean? That gold, the master alternative currency, is rallying against all sorry unbacked fiat central bank currencies. Defend yourself this year by getting as liquid as possible, paying down all debt, & fleeing from stocks and central bank currencies into silver & gold. Brace yourselves for a turbulent year!

*Let loose the dogs of collapse & rally! *

Stocks have performed wretchedly, miserably this week. They opened the year lower. Great start. Today the Dow closed below its August low (12,846) and 1.14 points above its November low (12,799.04), the lowest price since August. What do you call a series of lower highs and lower lows? Right, a downtrend. And the poor S&P500 closed a bare 11 points above 1400 and infamy.

Against gold the Dow reached a new low in this bear market that began in August 1999: G$306.57 (14.830 oz). The Dow in Gold Dollars is also signaling like a Confederate semaphore corporal that stocks are fixing to drop much, much more against gold. Against silver the Dow sank today to 834.11 oz, down over 67% from its June 2001 high at 2,566 oz. Please, while there's still time, swap stocks for silver & gold.

The feckless US DOLLAR INDEX is behaving like a banana-republic currency trying to rally. Oh, it probably will rally later this year, but first it must torture all the onlookers. Flee all dollar paying assets while you still have time: bank deposits, certificates of deposit, bonds, annuities, pensions. The buzzards who run the US monetary system -- no, vampires is the more precise word -- are bleeding y'all dry, yet y'all sit still for it. Why? 

*- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger*"


----------



## refined silver

barrett said:


> The activities of other industry insiders like bullion banks don't alter the solid 36-year track record of extreme values in the commercial net short positions in gold for predicting the future direction of the gold price.  In gold this indicator, while not infallible, is more reliable than in any other commodity or currency. Here is an article by a credible COT skeptic on the subject.. http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/COT.htm  I'm open to all lines of argument but I've not yet heard a convincing one that it's different this time and the COT should be entirely ignored..
> 
> A large commercial short position like we have now indicates a high probability of a pullback in the gold price, typically the larger the short position, the deeper and harder the correction.   Cheers Barrett




Hi Barrett,

I'll post a couple of articles on the COT situation and previous Commercial failures when i dig them out.

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

Miner said:


> Some extract from Kaplan's newsletter probbaly suggesting gold is going to be bearish!
> 
> "This is update #541 for Friday evening, January 4, 2008.
> 
> Historically, the U.S. dollar usually rises substantially during any global economic slowdown as it becomes a perceived safe haven from declining equities and commodities.  This process has been slow to develop in recent months, since there remains a foolish but very popular myth that the rest of the world will somehow continue to enjoy double-digit growth even with the U.S. economy heading into likely recession within a few months.  As this fairy tale is inevitably smashed, the U.S. dollar index will respond by rallying for most or all of 2008.




Hi Miner,

Kaplan has been basically bearish for the whole PM bull-run since 2001, he is a perenial top-caller, there has never been a $10 rally in gold without him screaming for a top, all the way to an interim top, often leaving those who listened, on the sidelines for the whole rally. Like many, he conversely never calls bottoms or advises his readers whole-heartedly to get into PMs. Sorry to say this but he a shill for TPTB. I'm not saying this to have a go, but just for your sake, so that you don't miss all the gains to be had in gold. There are plenty of decent writers with a grasp of what is going on, take a look at them.

Things have changed with the US dollar, this not like before. Its just broken 34year support levels in the last few months to all time lows and has a long way to go. The idea of a US recession is only just begining to gain traction, and that will send the USdollar much lower. They have to fund a nearly $3b a day Current Account deficit mainly with bond sales to other CBs, who are now trying to diversify out of the USD.


----------



## Miner

refined silver said:


> Hi Miner,
> 
> Kaplan has been basically bearish for the whole PM bull-run since 2001, he is a perenial top-caller, there has never been a $10 rally in gold without him screaming for a top, all the way to an interim top, often leaving those who listened, on the sidelines for the whole rally. Like many, he conversely never calls bottoms or advises his readers whole-heartedly to get into PMs. Sorry to say this but he a shill for TPTB. I'm not saying this to have a go, but just for your sake, so that you don't miss all the gains to be had in gold. There are plenty of decent writers with a grasp of what is going on, take a look at them.
> 
> Things have changed with the US dollar, this not like before. Its just broken 34year support levels in the last few months to all time lows and has a long way to go. The idea of a US recession is only just begining to gain traction, and that will send the USdollar much lower. They have to fund a nearly $3b a day Current Account deficit mainly with bond sales to other CBs, who are now trying to diversify out of the USD.




Thanks Refined Silver.
I did not know about Kaplan. I came to know about him only through this forum. Then I found to be available to respond my mails.
I will take your comments on board.

Regards


----------



## explod

I check out the Ade Sisters occasionally and todays read is a good roundup of the current situation, if you are bullish

Quote: ''

Jan 3 2008 11:28AM

Mega Move Underway, Stay With It

Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com

As we enter 2008, gold is hitting a new record high. That’s a great way to kick off the new year and it looks like there’s a lot more to come. Why?

This commodity upmove is over six years old, yet it’s still young and it’ll likely last another decade before it’s over. The falling dollar has certainly given the commodities a boost and there’s really no reason why the dollar will strengthen next year, which is a positive sign for the commodities.  ...''

as there are a number of charts within the article follow the link above for the full story


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## refined silver

Miner said:


> Thanks Refined Silver.
> I did not know about Kaplan. I came to know about him only through this forum. Then I found to be available to respond my mails.
> I will take your comments on board.
> 
> Regards




Hi Miner,

Have sent you an email,

Cheers.


----------



## M34N

So, I'm curious, who thinks given the weak US employment data, fears of US recession, very likely fall of 0.5% in rates in the US, lower US dollar, etc that gold prices are only going up in the lead up to the FOMC meeting late January? Anyone else willing to buy gold, or gold stocks, in the lead up? More worried about oil falling lower on the US recession news and pushing down gold too? Anyone got any opinions?


----------



## barrett

Nyden said:


> Oy, gold bugs!
> 
> I was just wondering how you true-believers expose yourselves to gold? Do you go for traded stocks that represent physical gold, or mining companies?
> 
> Know of any goldies paying half decent dividends? As I only want dividend paying stocks at the moment. I'm currently leaning towards NEM, but need to do further research on their assets.





Nyden, my strategy is to keep ~60% of my portfolio, 120% of my net worth, in bullion and gold stocks at all times, I don't trade or sell them.  It's mostly in the stocks, because their leverage is on average over time, 3:1 to the gold price.  A gold equities fund is another option.. Fat Prophets like the Merrill Lynch one (Blackrock International gold fund I think it's called).  There was an ASF thread a few months ago on buying and storing physical gold you might find useful.  GOLD on the ASX is backed by physical bullion but I don't know who runs it.

I keep about 10% of my portfolio cash in a futures account which allows up to 20:1 leverage into gold.  All I do is try to accumulate as many contracts as early as possible in each major (6-month) run, at max leverage.  My timing was bad in 07 but the performance is still comparable to all the stocks and bullion. I find using the highest leverage makes timing the buys stressful and time-consuming.  You can choose anything from 20:1 down to 1:1 leverage - choose your stress level   The smallest gold contract is $20K though.

As Jim Rogers has said, it it is surprising that more people don't invest directly in commodities using the futures market.  Futures are straightforward if you get a book on them (Donna Kline's Fundamentals of the Futures Market is decent).  And transactions can be done in about twenty seconds, 24 hours a day.  At $12 per $100K gold bought or sold, I think this brokerage is damn good value compared to stocks or paying big dealer margins/storage when you buy physical gold and especially silver.  

Others know more than me about the risks of 'paper gold', certainly having it in a bank vault is more secure and I have some stored that way, but I'm willing to take a risk that the futures market will not collapse at this stage.  When it turns into a mania I will redirect more into vault bullion since counterparty risk etc. will that much greater.

On the miners, none I know of pay any substantial dividend at the moment other than TRY.
Base metals are up 3-400%, good base metal miners are paying huge dividends.
When gold does the same, so will the gold miners.
My advice would be to concentrate on those with the biggest potential for quickly increasing cash flow/market cap and you should get your dividend in due course.  LGL's a good example, cash costs declining, production increasing.  Give it a year or two with a much higher gold price and barring a catastrophe they will be swimming in cash like Zinifex was last year and they'll need to do something with it.  Probably give back to shareholders in large amounts as many gold producers did in the late 70s.

NEM gives no dividend yield to speak of at the moment but the potential is there, the dividend should rise.. that's if their cash costs didn't rise faster than the gold price again this quarter :  If you have a long term time horizon I would also strongly recommend LGL and to a lesser extent NEM.  In the midcaps RSG and OGD are some favourites of mine on ASX but my holdings are mostly Canadian-listed because of the limited choice on ASX particularly in silver miners.

good luck with your gold investments
barrett


----------



## barrett

Silver.. 
I subscribe to Kaplan, and he’s kept subscribers out of the market since August 07, that’s true.  He insists that the gold price will experience a sharp correction, and that a similar buying opportunity to August 07 will appear around May-June 08.  Does Kaplan have any credibility?  Let’s have a look at his track record.    



refined silver said:


> Kaplan has been basically bearish for the whole PM bull-run since 2001 ...
> Like many, he conversely never calls bottoms or advises his readers whole-heartedly to get into PMs.




Kaplan correctly picked all three major interim bottoms in this bull market 2002- July 2007 and advised subscribers that "the bottom is in" or “buy” or “buy aggressively” on each occasion.  Nearly as importantly, he has advised not to buy at all of the less opportune times.  As a long term buy-and-hold gold investor I don’t know of any other service with this track record.   For those interested I have pasted in at the bottom the notes I made in July 07 when I subscribed, re his track record.  These have links to what he wrote in the open access web pages at each call.




refined silver said:


> , he is a perenial top-caller, there has never been a $10 rally in gold without him screaming for a top, all the way to an interim top, often leaving those who listened, on the sidelines for the whole rally.



You’re exaggerating here but I’ll grant you his record on calling tops is not as good as bottoms. He has called two interim tops almost to the day, but most notably he called the top too early in late 2006, as many gold timers did.  Personally as a believer in this gold bull market, selling is not an option.  If Kaplan can get me in at the best possible times, I’m happy.



refined silver said:


> I'm not saying this to have a go, but just for your sake, so that you don't miss all the gains to be had in gold.




I agree – don’t let Kaplan discourage you from buying gold.  And in my opinion, do not let anyone convince you to sell. We are in the early stages and the people buying and holding now will be long-term winners.  Kaplan is just very fussy about trying to work out the very best buy times.  Since I already hold a lot of gold stocks that's what I want.



refined silver said:


> There are plenty of decent writers with a grasp of what is going on, take a look at them.



Can you recommend one with a better track record than Kaplan for picking interim bottoms?
Cheers
B

My personal notes on Kaplan's newsletter for anyone interested please note they were made in July 07: 

” He has picked all three major bottoms very precisely since 2002, and picked two of the four major tops very precisely:

(no articles available pre 2002)

Called the major *top *exactly on May 29 2002:
http://truecontrarian.com/02_05_29.htm

Called the subsequent major *bottom *exactly in March 2003
http://truecontrarian.com/03_03_13.htm
“My current outlook for gold mining shares has improved once again, and is now STRONGLY BULLISH”

Went incorrectly 'modestly bearish' on gold stocks in July 2003 - strong rally of a further 30% in the XAU occurred until end of November 2003.  To his credit, he did not capitulate and try and buy back in at the top as I have seen other newsletters do.

Called the exact major *bottom *for gold mining shares in May 2004:
http://truecontrarian.com/04_05_23.htm

Called the subsequent exact major *top *in November 2004:
http://truecontrarian.com/04_11_14.htm

Called the exact major *bottom *for gold mining shares in May 2005:
"CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY AND VERY AGGRESSIVELY PURCHASE GOLD MINING SHARES (May 2, 2005): "
http://truecontrarian.com/05_05_02.htm

Early December 2005 saw a repeat of the July 2003 mistake of calling a top midway through the bull run, at the false top.  Many other commentators like Frank Barbera were also calling a top at the time, and yet the bull run continued with a further 45% in the XAU through to the peak in May 06.  

Truecontrarian has been consistently bearish on the gold equities since then, though recognising that gold is one of the most undervalued assets and remains in a long-term 10-15 year bull market.

So he has consistently called three major bottoms in this bull market, each one almost to the day.  “


----------



## barrett

Miner said:


> Some extract from Kaplan's newsletter probbaly suggesting gold is going to be bearish!




Having defended some of Kaplan's past calls, let me say that I reckon this current rally will make a fool of him for a little longer yet.  This wave 5 I am expecting through into February, I expect gold will be in the news as one of the only performing assets.  If Kaplan's correction materialises, it would have to wait at least until after that.  

Right now aside from the massively bullish long term fundamentals for gold there are the many short-term bullish factors that have been mentioned,

-gold breaking out in multiple currencies (very very bullish)
-gold newsletter sentiment only 66.1% according to Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, as at last Monday - not yet the sort of heavily bullish reading you get at a top.
- the movement of gold opposite the broader market indices

I am hoping to pick up some more comex contracts at around the 840 mark before the next upleg, but I may have to settle for a higher price......


ithatheekret said:


> Let's not forget Jan 9th sees the Shanghai exchange start trading gold futures , the reported 300 g contract is actually a 1000g contract , said to have been risen to discourage individual investors ..........


----------



## Whiskers

Fwiw Mineweb readers see a fairly modest rise in POG this year after a pretty good estimate/guestimate last year. 

How do these numbers stack up against your other forecasts?



> *Prediction: 2008 gold price high of $1088?*
> Mineweb readers to date are looking, on average, for a gold price high of $1088.6 in 2008. Last year they got within 1% of the closing LBMA figure. Enter this year’s gold price prediction competition now.
> 
> Author: Lawrence Williams
> Posted:  Monday , 07 Jan 2008
> 
> LONDON -
> 
> The first twenty entries for this year's Mineweb Readers' Gold Price prediction competition are in and the average estimate to date is for a High of $1088.60, a Low of $783.35, a year end figure of $1022.90 and an average price for the year of $904.80.
> http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=43779&sn=Detail


----------



## So_Cynical

More short term doom and gloom posts and yet gold keeps on with the (overall) up trend of the last 30 days.


----------



## Miner

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html 
Last value at LME Gold price $857.40 at 4 PM NY time on 7 Jan 08.

Regards


----------



## refined silver

Hi Barrett,

Am busy at present, but your post deserves a detailed response, will get back when I can,

Regards,


----------



## refined silver

barrett said:


> Does Kaplan have any credibility?  Let’s have a look at his track record.
> 
> Kaplan correctly picked all three major interim bottoms in this bull market 2002- July 2007 and advised subscribers that "the bottom is in" or “buy” or “buy aggressively” on each occasion.  Nearly as importantly, he has advised not to buy at all of the less opportune times.  As a long term buy-and-hold gold investor I don’t know of any other service with this track record.
> 
> Can you recommend one with a better track record than Kaplan for picking interim bottoms?
> Cheers
> B
> 
> ” He has picked all three major bottoms very precisely since 2002, and picked two of the four major tops very precisely:
> 
> (no articles available pre 2002)
> 
> Called the major *top *exactly on May 29 2002:
> http://truecontrarian.com/02_05_29.htm
> 
> Called the subsequent major *bottom *exactly in March 2003
> http://truecontrarian.com/03_03_13.htm
> “My current outlook for gold mining shares has improved once again, and is now STRONGLY BULLISH”
> 
> 
> Called the exact major *bottom *for gold mining shares in May 2004:
> http://truecontrarian.com/04_05_23.htm
> 
> Called the subsequent exact major *top *in November 2004:
> http://truecontrarian.com/04_11_14.htm
> 
> Called the exact major *bottom *for gold mining shares in May 2005:
> "CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY AND VERY AGGRESSIVELY PURCHASE GOLD MINING SHARES (May 2, 2005): "
> http://truecontrarian.com/05_05_02.htm
> 
> Early December 2005 saw a repeat of the July 2003 mistake of calling a top midway through the bull run, at the false top.  Many other commentators like Frank Barbera were also calling a top at the time, and yet the bull run continued with a further 45% in the XAU through to the peak in May 06.
> 
> Truecontrarian has been consistently bearish on the gold equities since then, though recognising that gold is one of the most undervalued assets and remains in a long-term 10-15 year bull market.
> 
> So he has consistently called three major bottoms in this bull market, each one almost to the day.  “





Hi Barrett,

Firstly congrats on being fully invested and long gold, despite newsletter recomendations to the contrary. 

This will most likely be part I of the answer, and relates to Kaplan's record. 

Firstly, did he even recognise this a long term bull market in advance? Many writers called $800 gold and a lot higher in 2000 and 2001/2002, they also called each major advance. A bull market is called such, because it bucks off most riders, very very few hold all the way to the top. If Kaplan hasn't got the most basics right, that this a long term bull, all his other calls are useless. (Anyone can say begrugingly admit this is a bull by looking back at the charts, but most will say its over/risky/overbought/bubble-like/speculative etc now) I have copied the below from the links you provided, but as you can see, every single call was bearish until March 2003, that means he missed the first 2.5 years and a five-fold run up in the HUI!!!

(I will post it separately as the post was too long to be accepted)

Secondly, given the his virtual perma-bear status, calling tops every $10 (admittedly an exageration but you get the point), of course he has called most tops, his problem is that he was bearish way before the top, and sometimes even before the rally started.

Thirdly, his bottom picking such as May 2005, - he capitalises "SHORT-TERM rally", what followed was a massive 12 months rally, how many times did he get people out in this time or call tops?  (In his May 2002 top call he also advises that gold shares will likely still be lower in 8-9 years!!). You say he called the top early in Dec 05, thus missing over half of the rally, was this his first top call?

Fourthly, his rationale for most calls shows a total lack of understanding of what the prime movers are for this gold bull. Even the technical tools he uses HUI/Au spread, cycles in days, etc, are very poor indicators with very poor records for this 8 bull. 

I could go on, but to summarise, his fundamental understanding is non-existent, his TA tools are just plain wrong for this market, in the 5 major (share) rallies of this bull, he was bearish for the whole of the first 2, at best called the top well before half-way in rallies 3 and 4 - thus missing 60-70% of the both rallies, and for the 5th major upleg which we are currently in, he has been on the sidelines the whole time!!! 

Like I said, listening to him will ensure no money is made in this gold market. But kudos to you for managing to stay invested, a very brave and courageous effort in the circumstances.


----------



## refined silver

From one of the newsletters you posted, this a copy (part 1)of Kaplan's recommendations to that point.
Wednesday, May 29, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and gold mining shares has deteriorated to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH, reflecting incredible speculation in junior money-losing producers, as well as juniors’ share prices far outperforming the seniors, as is typical of a peak in any equity sector group.  Insider selling is also more pronounced, as is insider issuance of new shares and other new security offerings by gold producers.

Wednesday, May 29, 2002:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has fallen from STRONGLY BEARISH to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials are now at or very close to their heaviest short position since February 1996.

Wednesday, May 1, 2002:  The insider stock transaction activity indicator for gold has dropped from MODESTLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as the frequency of insider sales and registrations for intended sales by gold mining executives has risen sharply over the past few weeks.  Corporate announcements about new secondary share offerings have also suddenly risen over the past several trading days.

Monday, April 8, 2002:  The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, as the high concentration of call buying on individual gold mining shares has somewhat abated in recent days.

Monday, March 25, 2002:  The outlook for gold mining shares has deteriorated to STRONGLY BEARISH, as an enormous concentration of call trading and sparse put trading in individual large-cap gold shares is indicating that a peak in gold share prices is imminent.

Monday, March 25, 2002:  The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has fallen from MODESTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, also reflecting the speculative fever in gold mining shares in recent trading days.

Monday, March 25, 2002:  The gauges of future inflation indicator has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, as both measures of future inflation’s growth rates have turned noticeably less negative. 

Monday, February 11, 2002:  The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has worsened from SLIGHTLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as gold’s price rise to above $300 spot has encouraged recent purchasers who are completely uncommitted to the yellow metal unless it is rising, and who will therefore bail out given even modest unfriendly price behavior.  Bearish traders’ commitments and overbought technicals support this view.  Also, the first true rally stage of any real bull market needs its corresponding retracement.

Monday, February 11, 2002:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has deteriorated from MODESTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials are currently net short about sixty thousand contracts.

Monday, February 11, 2002:  The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has deteriorated from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, as unusually heavy gold share call buying is probably marking a short-term peak for the yellow metal and its shares.

Monday, December 24, 2001:  The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has risen from MODERATELY BEARISH to SLIGHTLY BEARISH, as the pivot price for gold has risen from $271 to $276 spot, while gold commercials remain highly responsive to modest moves in either direction, and currency commercials are generally short those currencies which correlate significantly with the gold price.

Monday, December 24, 2001:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH.

Monday, October 29, 2001: The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as the traders' commitments have noticeably improved, though still show commercials markedly net short. 

Monday, October 29, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as commercials are more aggressively covering their short positions on all dips in the gold price. 

Tuesday, October 23, 2001: The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has improved from STRONGLY BEARISH/VERY STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as the gold price has dropped substantially. 

Tuesday, October 23, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has improved from VERY STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as commercials grudgingly, but steadily, are covering their net short positions on all price declines. [/I]


----------



## refined silver

Part II. 

Even though gold stocks bottomed 1 month after the May 2002 top as you can see, Kaplan stayed bearish, advising readers to sell out at lows (those that hadn't done so already), From the low in July 02 to March 03 was choppy but still with an upward trend.


_Thursday, March 13, 2003:  The overall current outlook for gold mining shares has improved from MODERATELY BULLISH to STRONGLY BULLISH, as the HUI appears to have completed a very bullish double bottom at 112.61 with its November 22, 2002 nadir of 112.66.  The overall current outlook for gold itself has improved from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH, as commercials appear to be have gone exactly net neutral Comex gold futures this morning, thus removing the threat of a serious triggering of stale speculator longs’ sell stops.

Thursday, March 13, 2003:  The price/volume statistics indicator has improved from SLIGHTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BULLISH, as the HUI completed a potential strong double bottom at 112.61, gold itself is close to its 200-day moving average, and there was a recent surge in put buying on individual gold mining shares.

Tuesday, March 11, 2003:  The overall current outlook for gold mining shares has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODERATELY BULLISH, reflecting their recent sharp price decline.  The overall current outlook for gold itself has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to SLIGHTLY BULLISH, since the above-average spread between HUI and the spot gold price demonstrates that there is a real danger of a final sharp short-term drop in the price of the yellow metal before it is able to rally once again.

Tuesday, March 11, 2003:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as commercials have reduced their huge short position by about half over the past five weeks.

Tuesday, March 11, 2003:  The price/volume statistics indicator has improved from MODESTLY BEARISH to SLIGHTLY BEARISH.  Since HUI broke below its 200-day moving average and collapsed, the risk of its continued decline has been proportionately abated.

Tuesday, February 25, 2003:  The overall current outlook for gold and its shares has improved from STRONGLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as gold and its shares have declined substantially, putting us closer to the eventual nadir.

Tuesday, February 25, 2003:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has improved from STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as commercials have continued to reduce their net short position significantly from its recent 22-year peak of 127,047 net short.

Tuesday, February 25, 2003:  The price/volume statistics indicator has declined again from SLIGHTLY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, as the HUI is about to struggle with its 200-day moving average, and gold itself has a significant amount to drop before testing its own 200-day moving average.  The shares are consistently underperforming the metal, and the intraday trading behavior shows gold mining shares repeatedly moving higher in the morning and then lower later in the day.  Both of these patterns are bearish for gold and its shares.

Thursday, December 19, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and its shares has dropped from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH.  Gold mining shares, especially those of senior producers, continue to underperform the gold price, while investor sentiment has turned euphoric.  This is a profoundly bearish combination.

Thursday, December 19, 2002:  The price/volume statistics indicator has fallen from NEUTRAL to SLIGHTLY BEARISH, as the HUI, which failed to approach its June 4, 2002 peak, is negatively diverging from spot gold, which easily set a new 5-1/2-year high.

Monday, December 16, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and its shares has plummeted from MODESTLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH.  Commercials are at an extreme net short position.  There is very little put buying on gold mining shares, and lots of call buying.  The media has turned bullish on gold.  Senior gold shares are far underperforming bullion, while juniors have been surging.

Monday, December 16, 2002:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has fallen from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials have been aggressively adding to their net short position into all rallies.

Monday, November 11, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and its shares has risen from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH.  There is not as much insider selling now as in September when the HUI was in the mid- to upper-130s, and seniors are beginning to outperform relative to juniors, both of which are positive developments.  On the negative side, the traders’ commitments for gold are still unencouraging, and the traders’ commitments for currencies which correlate closely with the gold price are at multi-year extremes, indicating the likelihood of a U.S. dollar rally which will likely depress the gold price.

Monday, November 11, 2002: The insider stock transaction activity for gold has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as the intensity of insider selling has noticeably abated, as one would expect given the decline in gold share prices since the middle of September.  No important insider buying has yet emerged.

Thursday, September 19, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and its shares has fallen from MODESTLY BULLISH to MODERATELY BEARISH.  The pessimism toward gold that was rampant in late July has been replaced by an optimism nearly as pronounced as what was experienced in the spring.  Juniors are far outperforming seniors, put buying has all but vanished, and commercials are once again more than 60 thousand contracts net short in COMEX gold futures.  I would be more bearish, except that gold share valuations are not as overextended as they were in late May or early June, so they have less to decline in percentage terms.

Thursday, September 19, 2002:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has plummeted from NEUTRAL to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as commercials have shown a strong eagerness to heavily re-establish short positions at any price above $315 spot, whereas small speculators are again more than 5:1 net long as they were in late May and early June.

Thursday, September 19, 2002:  The insider stock transaction activity for gold has deteriorated from MODERATELY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as insider selling by gold mining executives has picked up after a brief interval of insider buying in late July that quickly dried up after share prices rebounded.

Thursday, September 19, 2002:  The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has worsened from MODESTLY BULLISH to NEUTRAL, as the 200-day moving averages are too far away to be useful as short-term support, while put trading on individual gold mining shares has plummeted, indicating very little fear of a short-term drop in the gold price.

Tuesday, August 6, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and gold mining shares has improved substantially from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODESTLY BULLISH, as commercials covered more than half of their net short position, and gold mining shares are not far from completing a bottoming pattern.

Tuesday, August 6, 2002:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has improved from STRONGLY BEARISH to NEUTRAL, as commercials heavily covered from July 23 to July 30, and were likely very close to net neutral when gold bottomed at $298 spot on August 1.

Tuesday, August 6, 2002:  The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has improved from MODESTLY BEARISH to MODESTLY BULLISH, as both HUI and the gold price itself tested and held above their respective 200-day moving averages on July 26, while the heavy concentration of call trading in gold mining shares seen in the spring has now led to only tentative gold trading, with put trading remaining roughly constant throughout.

Tuesday, August 6, 2002:  The gauges of future inflation indicator has improved again from MODESTLY BULLISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH, as both indices are showing double-digit growth rates.

Wednesday, July 31, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and gold mining shares has improved again from STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH.  Given the recent substantial drop in price, there is less of a decline remaining.

Wednesday, July 31, 2002:  The insider stock transaction activity for gold has improved from STRONGLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as the recent sharp drop in gold mining share prices has discouraged further selling of these shares by top executives.

Tuesday, July 9, 2002:   The insider stock transaction activity for gold has deteriorated from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, as the rate of recent insider selling by gold industry executives has exceeded the peak of February 1996, and is now approaching (but has not quite reached) its level from the summer of 1987.

Tuesday, July 9, 2002:  The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has improved from VERY STRONGLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials are slowly covering their short positions when the gold price declines.

Tuesday, July 9, 2002:  The gauges of future inflation indicator has improved from NEUTRAL to MODESTLY BULLISH, as important leading indices of inflation are now showing positive rates of growth.

Tuesday, June 11, 2002:  The overall current outlook for gold and gold mining shares has improved from VERY STRONGLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, reflecting the recent sharp drop in the price of gold and gold share prices, especially those of money-losing junior gold miners which had fallen over 30%.

Tuesday, June 11, 2002:  The gauges of future inflation indicator has improved from MODESTLY BEARISH to NEUTRAL, as important leading indices of inflation have moved from 26-year lows just a few months ago to near neutral today._


----------



## apuao

We'll almost certainly see $1,000 gold in 2008.  But, we may have a correction first.  

Nothing goes up in a straight line, and the US dollar is due for a counter-trend rally.  

But there are good investments to buy, regardless ...

Send me a Private Message for a free report on a ... 

*Gold Investment That Pays Over 7% Yield While You Wait for the Price to Explode Up.  *

Or, a  ...

*Gold Company Immune to Rising Mining Costs*


----------



## explod

Well I dont' know about anyone else or all the pontification and argument of late on this thread.  If you like to go back and read the substancial evidence I do not understand how there can be doubters.

The gold price is on a new uptick and it is in new territory, and it is happening now.


----------



## So_Cynical

Nice chart explod....quick some one post in the outstanding break out alerts thread.:dance

So thats the intra day record gone as well ? or is that only relevant to NY price ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Well there's $870 on the board and $880 for the next poz wouldn't have me faint , I wonder if we can get to $905  and a big opening for Shanghai would be nice .

Nice ........ it would be f.ff.ff...ff..... great .


----------



## refined silver

apuao said:


> We'll almost certainly see $1,000 gold in 2008.  But, we may have a correction first.
> 
> Nothing goes up in a straight line, and the US dollar is due for a counter-trend rally.




The countertrend USD rally may be over. It went from 74 to 78 on the USD index, now at 76. It may move sideways for a bit, 78 will be tough to break, 80 incredibly tough and only a retest of the 34 year old broken neckline, or just as likely it could drop like a stone to 72, on its way a lot lower.


----------



## refined silver

So_Cynical said:


> Nice chart explod....quick some one post in the outstanding break out alerts thread.:dance
> 
> So thats the intra day record gone as well ? or is that only relevant to NY price ?




Intraday it hit $887.50 in Jan 1980.


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> The countertrend USD rally may be over. It went from 74 to 78 on the USD index, now at 76. It may move sideways for a bit, 78 will be tough to break, 80 incredibly tough and only a retest of the 34 year old broken neckline, or just as likely it could drop like a stone to 72, on its way a lot lower.




Looks like it is about to complete a head and shoulders, commenced 20th Dec, then continue down IMHO


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> Intraday it hit $887.50 in Jan 1980.




Yeh, we could expect some pretty intense resistance at this point, would not expect a glide through as easy as the last few weeks.

But if it did I would agree, it would be fffff.........fffff.......ff....very bbbbb...nice


----------



## barrett

Looks like wave 5 underway already, anyone adding to positions on the breakout?  

Added an extra 2 contracts at 856 yesterday but set the stop just a touch too high  that cost me a cool $3.5K so far..

Just added another 2 at 872 on the breakout, this could be a big week.   Will be interesting to see if the HUI breaks out too.

A summary of some well-known gold timers' outlooks: 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={BBC65065-057C-4A80-A101-53AE266D08D2}

GLTA


----------



## bean

barrett said:


> this could be a big week.   Will be interesting to see if the HUI breaks out too.




If HUI goes above 460 tonight or tomorrow on way to 500 min

I bought 'gold' today as service I subscribe to informed breakout tonight 'FEB gold'  and on its way to US$ 902 at least in this move.

Also all POG corrections are very shallow.  so often hard to find the bottom of the correction

Also a possibility of a very interesting night on the DOW is about to happen?  yet looking at the futures at the moment they are positve so maybe not.


----------



## refined silver

barrett said:


> A summary of some well-known gold timers' outlooks:
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={BBC65065-057C-4A80-A101-53AE266D08D2}
> 
> GLTA




You asked about other analysts with good records, but in that article are some of the best in the business.


----------



## rederob

refined silver said:


> Intraday it hit $887.50 in Jan 1980.



Comex showed $895 so a break over that would be nice.


----------



## explod

bean said:


> If HUI goes above 460 tonight or tomorrow on way to 500 min
> 
> I bought 'gold' today as service I subscribe to informed breakout tonight 'FEB gold'  and on its way to US$ 902 at least in this move.
> 
> Also all POG corrections are very shallow.  so often hard to find the bottom of the correction
> 
> Also a possibility of a very interesting night on the DOW is about to happen?  yet looking at the futures at the moment they are positve so maybe not.





Hui at $461.

The chart, just cant' help meself !!!


----------



## ithatheekret

Crikey , you should see Skippy on the hop , old man emus driving .

_ he can run the pants off a kangaroo_

Is that our handicap ......... now on par excellence ?

Not quite , another 30 odd cents yet .


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Crikey , you should see Skippy on the hop , old man emus driving .
> 
> _ he can run the pants off a kangaroo_
> 
> Is that our handicap ......... now on par excellence ?
> 
> Not quite , another 30 odd cents yet .



ROFL.

Well, volume and the PPT couldn't hold it back today. Australian gold equities really need to follow through from here...


----------



## Sean K

chops_a_must said:


> ROFL.
> 
> Well, volume and the PPT couldn't hold it back today. Australian gold equities really need to follow through from here...



 Are gold stocks moving predominantly with the market, or POG? Bit of both? Need a good finish on the DOW for gold stocks to run with POG here I suspect.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Yes Kennas, but at some stage there may well be a disconnection. 
Well this translates to about 20-25c for NEM today, if the rest of market doesn't tank. Interesting strength in POG with little pullback consolidation - has a pause to recharge and off it goes again. The trader in me looking to short around here ie $880? Deal or No Deal - Lock It In!!


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes Kennas, but at some stage there may well be a disconnection.
> Well this translates to about 20-25c for NEM today, if the rest of market doesn't tank. Interesting strength in POG with little pullback consolidation - has a pause to recharge and off it goes again. The trader in me looking to short around here ie $880? Deal or No Deal - Lock It In!!




Unless you were looking for scalps, at the moment there is very little room to trade anywhere but long on gold. It's pretty much been just a one way trade. Until there is some weakness off an opening, I personally wouldn't be touching the shorts on it.


----------



## bean

Just a little bit more on HUI number

Extract


> Ackerman 6/1/07
> A run-up to as high as 506.50 is possible over the next 6-9 days, but first the Gold Bugs Index would need to close above 460.86 for two consecutive days.




NEM - was given a number to buy bought, the stock gapped up so US subscribers missed out however Aussie subscribers seeing the POG pass a certain buy point during yesterday could have jumped on board.

However looking for the two I did buy AVO and CXC to make good runs


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> NEM - was given a number to buy bought, the stock gapped up so US subscribers missed out however Aussie subscribers seeing the POG pass a certain buy point during yesterday could have jumped on board.
> 
> However looking for the two I did buy AVO and CXC to make good runs



Beanster, I thought you were waiting for $540 as an entry?  he he


----------



## ithatheekret

No curbs yet , except the one Paulson hit his head on . He started talking /dreaming dollar strength again , look what happened , scared the willies out of Skippy it will take her months to get the stains out and old man emu did more than the average walkabout .

Poor old Hank I don't know .......... Do ya think he was nervous ?

I reckon we should swab him 



I noticed he covers himself when standing  , good idea , come March the odd shoe could get close . If I was President I kick him where it hurts for spitting out the benefits story when NOT asked . Whose side is he on ?

His mates open shop today , in Shanghai , they might shanghai something too .


Cramer was just on with " I'm not paranoid enough to buy gold " Erin ..... and he actually said something real about ethanol ........... I'm shocked , stumped , absolutely mollified even ,  he comes out of left field and says something right , a little late , but right . WTF is going on ..... ?

Bread and butter politics , Hillary a chance ...... EEEEEK , it's gettin' scary again . Now if she kicked Bill in the choice parts , she could sway me 

....... and how's about those last minute market decisions hey ....... 1404.22 eeeek for the S&P , the Dow just been dacked and the Nasdaq has said hello day 7 .

Every second word on the squawk box is recession . 


*FRITZ*


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Also a possibility of a very interesting night on the DOW is about to happen?  yet looking at the futures at the moment they are positve so maybe not.




It would appear it is now happening - should be gut wrenching  till the bottom


----------



## explod

bean said:


> It would appear it is now happening - should be gut wrenching  till the bottom




A close here is below one of the last supports.   Gold and the Hui have decoupled so it will be interesting to see what transfers into our market.


----------



## bean

Yes Gold markets in 2008 seem to have party decoupled from the general market.

Bears shorting the general market beware!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/07/ccview107.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

However gold bugs what happens may be more good news


----------



## ithatheekret

Wow , that must mean George was telling fibs , when he said he would not let the Fed interfere in the market , Treasury is part of the Fed the last time I checked and we've just been told that the money was coming from the Middle East c/- the Treasury head . 

No one mention it was coming from a middleman , hang on , that means middle America will pay for it all .  Cwaar they'll like that .

Perhaps we should email Joe at CNBC for his astute opinion , no use asking Erin she thinks we're all paranoid and delusional .

Aw gee it's really confusing   

Does that mean good old Hank is lying too , surely not ?

........ but he even shared his dreams with us on CNBC .

Well ain't that just peachy .


"What everyone's looking at is what is the fastest way to get money out there," said a Bush aide.

Not heard about the marvel of helicopters obviously ..........

But it's hard to put the article into context , when we've just had the Treasury head talk about banks taking on more losses . The constant free fair market musings by the President . Nah they wouldn't do that , it would ruin any credibility they had ....... hang on scratch that .


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes Kennas, but at some stage there may well be a disconnection.



I wonder if this is the start. The gold stocks I'm looking at are all doing very nicely while the XAO is breaking down.


----------



## ithatheekret

Shanghai Gold exchange (SGE thereafter), approved by the State Council and founded by the People's Bank of China, performs the regulated functions stipulated by Management Rules of Gold Exchange and organizes gold transactions with the principle of openness, fairness, justness and honesty.¡*¡*


From Monday to Friday (except China's legal holidays):     AM 10:00-11:30 PM 13:30-15:30

smallest trade is one kilo , smallest delivery is six kilos , mock ops underway .


http://www.sge.sh/redirect.asp?locale=1033


PS... Hope your having a great day Kennas , you've earned it cobber and you too Unc . onyas .


----------



## numbercruncher

Good Reading ......




> The last time gold touched $850 an ounce, the world was visibly spiralling out of control.
> 
> Soviet tanks had just rolled into Afghanistan. The Mullahs had seized US hostages in Iran. Pax Americana was on the ropes, and so was capitalism. Inflation had reached 14 per cent in the United States.
> 
> The final spike in bullion occurred when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, forcing up gold in tandem through arbitrage links. It collapsed within days.
> 
> If you strip out the Hunt anomaly, it is fair to say that gold established a "safe-haven" level of $600 - or $1,500 in today's money - that roughly lasted through the final phase of the Carter malaise, the oil shock, and the collapse of confidence in the monetary order.
> 
> By this benchmark, last week's jump to $869 looks tame. Yet gold is undoubtedly flashing warning signs. The price has jumped 42 per cent since the US credit markets suffered their heart attack in August. It has tripled since Gordon Brown sold over half Britain's reserves, deeming it a barbarous relic. That conceit has cost taxpayers £3.4bn, after adjusting for returns from dollar, euro, and yen bonds.




rest at link ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ULB5DFA1UWF41QFIQMFSFF4AVCBQ0IV0?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/01/06/ccgold106.xml


----------



## numbercruncher

888


Gotta Love it !


----------



## refined silver

Hedge fund managers still trying to fight gold shares, they will end up getting creamed.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

What a difference an hour makes - Dow get's another cold and say good bye to 5% NEM, but gold stock disconnection starting. Didn't take that short @ $880 (too tired )  but did do one @ $889 this morning.

And open the champers - $1000 per oz in Aussie bleeders


----------



## Whiskers

bean said:


> I bought 'gold' today as service I subscribe to informed breakout tonight 'FEB gold'  and on its way to US$ 902 at least in this move.




What is the significance of $902? That must be near the up-trend line.

There must be a risk of a significant 06 style correction if we get near there, or are we going to break the up-trend?


----------



## ithatheekret

$893 ......... how many price points in a row is that now ?

c'mon $905 next, just below one of the $1K figures saw 7 outcomes based on oil , the Euro etc etc etc , sorry not giving away all my configuration aspects . But this had a 48% chance of a retracement ( will need tweaking now ) , which can go as low as the figures I quoted well below here , only two chaos factors managed to see a relief in those numbers to date , they haven't happened yet, as the markets decline was already partly accounted for in the products . A resumption in base metals is another positive , which in itself has its own premium to the price yet to be added , but only as  supportive structure .

I am very happy that I haven't been bagged on this for my projections , I used to have a rock proof suit , if you know what I mean . I thought I was going to cop it when I mentioned the 6200 test , the 6100 area under that and the prayers that it didn't  hit 5800 and try for 5400 .

I always felt they were shoot the messenger tactics , or bag the whistleblower , in my previous posting elsewhere , it took time to get over that , the best cure was to immerse myself in my chosen areas .

My names Mark by the way everyone , please to meet you all .


----------



## ithatheekret

Whiskers said:


> What is the significance of $902? That must be near the up-trend line.
> 
> There must be a risk of a significant 06 style correction if we get near there, or are we going to break the up-trend?




If your refering to my 905 , your a clever pussycat A+ for observation and don't think of gold as any other commodity , but there's a calculation for each point , actually there can be quite a few . But we have to add something first to the price , it's historical , but what , and it deals directly with the gold price , no outside the square stuff on that area .


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> If your refering to my 905 , your a clever pussycat A+ for observation and don't think of gold as any other commodity , but there's a calculation for each point , actually there can be quite a few . But we have to add something first to the price , it's historical , but what , and it deals directly with the gold price , no outside the square stuff on that area .




Now to be sure I bet that is a very concise and clear explanation, but as just a simple old past plod I cant keep up anymore, but I am very interested.   

Is it something like that Guppy box (breakout) thingo he came up with a few years ago?


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> Now to be sure I bet that is a very concise and clear explanation, but as just a simple old past plod I cant keep up anymore, but I am very interested.
> 
> Is it something like that Guppy box (breakout) thingo he came up with a few years ago?




I'll second that explod. He's a bit above me too.

Just to increase some anxiety, here is another look at that weekly, but on closing price. It seems POG touched it and backed off... for now!!!???


----------



## Sean K

With all this excitement, I'm becoming very cautious.


----------



## rederob

kennas said:


> With all this excitement, I'm becoming very cautious.



Yes, the price is running too fast.
However, while there may be the odd retrace, you can see from the below semi-log chart below (now a week old!!!) that a "top" is a long way off.


----------



## ithatheekret

I don't mean to be rude , but one day I hope to sell my theory on and would prefer not to go into it , it is intricate , and it has better results in high volatility which it is also based on .

I just used in on the mini and entered my whole allocation set aside on it , to take up 560000 units at a cost just over 15K from 88525 through to 88760 , that brought in over $8.5K , it took a little over 36 minutes . 

My dip buy and a couple of bottom range entries kept are the next run it's already gone positive , but the swings are extremely volatile and I wouldn't be bothered doing it if it wasn't.  

It was put the money where my mouth was and I'm in the swings .

I hope it doesn't offend , but this due to my years of working very late and it must be able to pay me a dividend first , hopefully one day a nice cheque from a fund or such  , I know this will sound over the top , but all the workings I do are locked away , in a fire proof safe with our very modest accumulation of bullion ingots .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

ithatheekret said:


> I don't mean to be rude , but one day I hope to sell my theory on and would prefer not to go into it , it is intricate , and it has better results in high volatility which it is also based on .




Ah, so that's the theekret! Can't you tell us, we won't tell anyone, hardly anyone reads this thread .

To be fair, you would have to indicate _before_ you did the trade - picking that _exact_ bottom could be easy in hindsite?
You don't have to say how you do it.


----------



## Whiskers

ithatheekret said:


> I don't mean to be rude , but one day I hope to sell my theory on and would prefer not to go into it , it is intricate , and it has better results in high volatility which it is also based on .
> 
> 
> ... I know this will sound over the top , but all the workings I do are locked away , in a fire proof safe with our very modest accumulation of bullion ingots .






Where did you say you lived again, maate???


----------



## ithatheekret

If you can figure out the six calculations it took for me to accept 88525 as an entry , you've got , if you sell it on I'd like royalties 

Just exited higher entries at 8880 , still have the lowers , next dip should have a decent enough retracement I hope or I'll be stuck with what I have left ........ and have to pay 0.70cents per unit rollover on the buy side . Anything around or under say around 88725 would be attractive if it has the right intervals , I was hoping for another shot at 88700 / have bids there and at 88710 , but the markets have control at present so patience is a virtue and no grog today 

In but off target already for 200 units , and have now topped it up 88690 and 88695 , as you can see it's not perfected to the penny , I only wish , but I am on the mini  which are a little out of step again today .


----------



## ithatheekret

Hmmm the early entry cost me there , only $3200 + on old exit so best hang on a tad , just a tad $15K is $15K, by the way the allocation never exceeds the original , just a personal discipline , By the way buying on the down here in 10 cent increments each way did work to ...... and i don't intend to play chicken all day swinging , ( I'm gone the toppers limit bell went off ) , must have hit 88860 .


----------



## ithatheekret

I think I should confess , here , I broke one of my fundamental principles today in these trades . I traded because I needed extra cash for my eldest daughter ( whom I'm extremely proud of , silent achiever my lass ) to go to Japan on a teachers conference . 

Normally I never take on extra risk because of a need , as half the time need is want ...... and greedy is a dizzy substance .


----------



## explod

Interesting all the attempts to be the first or to be the best in the T/A, and I try to be in it too, seem to be generally a long way from the targets.

Anyway I have just had a real good think, a hard call for me by the way, but whilst helping the missus with the shopping and am at my best,..to concentrate that is, so as said did some mulling.

Conclusion, this gold bull is different and it has a dogged mind of its own.  It has defied most of the T/A calls, from since I had a rough idea of what that meant, beeing about two years.

It is said of a trend that there is about 70% that it will continue its line, 15% that it will go down and about 15% that it will tickup steeper.  (Dont ask where I read that, dont rmebr)   So good chance it will keep going up as it has done of late.

Fundamentals; dollar is stuffed, economies looking stuffed, money value draining out.  India, China, Russia and now a rumour US investors all seeking to buy gold as protection.

Have to hold, no better offers.

Oh by the way, my book project is about roulette and it involves patience and charting, you could be quoted Itha,.... opps didn't want that out


----------



## ithatheekret

Whiskers said:


> Where did you say you lived again, maate???




Not far from this lovely house , only 601 humans in the township , beautiful quiet little Hamlet . 70km from Adelaide rural rates and rego etc. , a good town to raise kids in .

http://www.lindcorealestate.com.au/


----------



## ithatheekret

explod said:


> Interesting all the attempts to be the first or to be the best in the T/A, and I try to be in it too, seem to be generally a long way from the targets.
> 
> 
> Conclusion, this gold bull is different and it has a dogged mind of its own.  It has defied most of the T/A calls, from since I had a rough idea of what that meant, beeing about two years.
> 
> 
> Oh by the way, my book project is about roulette and it involves patience and charting, you could be quoted Itha,.... opps didn't want that out




Yes I agree explod , it has a mind of it's own , it became an investment vehicle once again , so it must have its own unique attributes . 

I must say observation and application are always best self taught , but if you can take a page out of someones book to add to yours , so to speak , you fall under the class as a professional in my books .

I'm not competing here I can assure you of that , I just say what I see , and what I finally figure out . I don't call shovels spades and I don't use spanners as hammers either . 

I'd say I'm more in line with a spanner in the brokers works . 

If that's saboutage , I plead guilty . 

Money going around in circles doesn't create economic growth if it doesn't leave the country , the US has had a significant problem here . 

As the piles of money kept circulating , a few ended up with other peoples piles ,,,,,,, usually mums and dads and that gets my wick up . 

Like I said some where else here , they sold garbage for years , now they have a pile of junk . If anything I may happened to have mused in a debate has saved or made some family money , it was worth every late night .

I think the intent of the big players is evil , and there's a good saying about good men and evil , I hope the Lord considers me a good man .

Sometimes when I post I think people must either think I'm an idiot or off with the pixies , it's in my make up to cop that sweet  , and boy some comments elsewhere did get me moving once , had to get over that .

I thoroughly believe in collective intelligence and that is in my foundation .


PS.. the craps tables #1 and the caribbean stud #2 pay the best ratios from my calculations .


----------



## numbercruncher

ithatheekret said:


> Sometimes when I post I think people must either think I'm an idiot or off with the pixies , it's in my make up to cop that sweet  , and boy some comments elsewhere did get me moving once , had to get over that .
> 
> I thoroughly believe in collective intelligence and that is in my foundation .
> 
> 
> PS.. the craps tables #1 and the caribbean stud #2 pay the best ratios from my calculations .





I for one like your posts.

Your right with Craps, But Caribbean is way down the foodchain (very profitable game for the house), Baccarat comes in second - Those with fantastic memorys should consider Blackjack, a good card counter can flip the odds in his/her favor


----------



## bean

The US$ 902  I mentioned for Feb gold.  
First it has a number just below that it has to get through with out dropping back to US$ 87x.xx tonight
If it suceeds in both then  sorry can't tell the number just yet

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1199862060.php


----------



## ithatheekret

Thanks for that NC


I should have mentioned with stud when playing against the house , you should be playing two hands at least ...... and always cough up the chip each deal , if you have a semi full table minus your seat , the odds improve dramatically , I got three books one night took a very nice jackpot and left immediately   

Baccarrat yeah , guts and class is a hard find for some , nerves of steel earns rewards . You're a classy act if you've conquered baccarat .

And that was my last peak for the day , 889910 average there I think .


I used no stops only limits and market finale , but I had four charts running , getting my monies worth out of the new unit , the fans in it can part ya hair .
Margin looks good now , wish I could keep it all there .

No 88900 an three at 889905 .


----------



## ithatheekret

*P.M.A.*


----------



## explod

numbercruncher said:


> I for one like your posts.
> 
> Your right with Craps, But Caribbean is way down the foodchain (very profitable game for the house), Baccarat comes in second - Those with fantastic memorys should consider Blackjack, a good card counter can flip the odds in his/her favor




Wrong and Itha too.   Of all the games Roulette is the only one that has a physical wheel and a shooting dealer.   Some wheels have ballance and manufracture defects and some dealers just spin it the same all the time.  These physical matters can be measured and the bias far greater than the house edge of 2.5%,


----------



## ithatheekret

anyone see a mistake above on the exits the three should read 889005.....

crikey guys ......... hmmm ....... it must be market shock .

....... did the 300 test 6100 ? I haven't been game to look today ,  and I hope the 200 stayed above 6000 .


----------



## barrett

Uncle Festivus said:


> What a difference an hour makes - Dow get's another cold and say good bye to 5% NEM, but gold stock disconnection starting. Didn't take that short @ $880 (too tired )  but did do one @ $889 this morning.
> 
> And open the champers - $1000 per oz in Aussie bleeders




Absolutely, that is cause for celebration!  :band 

Uncle Festivus, with this short are you anticipating an interim top here, or just an intra-day trade..?

Anyone else finding it never makes an important move until you've sat down for dinner?   lol


----------



## numbercruncher

explod said:


> Wrong and Itha too.   Of all the games Roulette is the only one that has a physical wheel and a shooting dealer.   Some wheels have ballance and manufracture defects and some dealers just spin it the same all the time.  These physical matters can be measured and the bias far greater than the house edge of 2.5%,





I agree a bias wheel will throw the odds in your favor bigtime, youll spend a long time looking though, they are tested for mechanical defects all the time. I have heard of groups cleaning up with bias wheels in the past though, doesnt last long they would shut the table I bet!

And the dealer thing is just a fallacy imho, If dealers could section spin casinos would be getting hammered all the time, too many variables the little cogs on the face of the wheels, fins around the number that riqocet the ball.

Those Big wheels im convinced a dealer could section spin though, no variables if the spin the same pressure every time.


----------



## Mellow77

I have been looking for possibilities how to invest in "physical gold", but I have not find any in particular. I do not like the idea having gold in my cabinet...
Could you give me some hints or tips how to get one's exposure to gold? Maybe some companies which benefit from the rise of gold price.
I use ComSec.
It is a pitty there is no ETF which deals with physical gold... (at least according to my research).
I do not mean it like recommending some companies, just to get me some place to start my research. You can write me a private message.

Many thanks for your help, I appreciate it.


----------



## GreatPig

Check out the Perth Mint.

GP


----------



## explod

numbercruncher said:


> I agree a bias wheel will throw the odds in your favor bigtime, youll spend a long time looking though, they are tested for mechanical defects all the time. I have heard of groups cleaning up with bias wheels in the past though, doesnt last long they would shut the table I bet!
> 
> And the dealer thing is just a fallacy imho, If dealers could section spin casinos would be getting hammered all the time, too many variables the little cogs on the face of the wheels, fins around the number that riqocet the ball.
> 
> Those Big wheels im convinced a dealer could section spin though, no variables if the spin the same pressure every time.




You are correct but it can be found for short terms and yes they often close tables down.  Here at Crown in Melbourne where there are plenty of tables operating the opportunities are there, I do not go to make a fortune, and dont, but it is great entertainment trying.  I am not the gambling type, but while my wife does I amuse myself with this idea

Yes section spinners are often found to advantage.


----------



## numbercruncher

Mellow

Perth Mint Gold product , a call warrant, listed on the asx code ZAUWBA would probably suit what you describe.

heres a read on it http://http://www.asx.com.au/investor/warrants/how/gold_pmg.htm


----------



## explod

Just thought I may get back onto the subject.   Silver continues to stengthen tonight.  When silver leads gold really starts to fly.  Any takers on that???


----------



## Boyou

Hi explod. I'll respond to your question .I suppose this belongs on the silver thread ,but,what the heck... Perhaps the question is a bit chicken and egg/cause and effect.Which does the leading Gold or Silver?

This article is relevant , I think.I had to edit a bit to fit the maximum character rule

For a few months now, people have been wondering why the silver price seems to be lagging behind the gold price.  After all, in 1980, gold hit $850/oz., and silver peaked out at $50/oz.  But today, gold is making new all-time highs at $890 today, while silver languishes at a mere $15.83 as I begin this article this evening.  My wife thought it was no coincidence that Ron Paul was on Jay Leno last night on Jan 7th, talking about the need for "Constituational" gold and silver money after having been excluded from the Fox News Republican debate.  Jay Leno was shocked at the snub, as Ron Paul has raised more money than any of the other candidates!

So, silver rose from $15.22 earlier today to $15.88 now!  That's up 4% in one day!

In recent years, from about 2001, the ratio of the price of silver to gold has risen from about 70 to 80 ounces of silver, for 1 ounce of gold, to about 56, where it stands today.  In fact, in the past 6 months, the ratio has remained rather steady at about 55 to 1.  

In 1980, the ratio had returned to the historic 15 to 1 ratio.  

So, only when compared to 1980, can silver still be described as "languishing".  Yes, it might be said that we are still at the bottom of a 27 year bear market for silver.   (But now, we have "price action" and a price "breakout!")

But if you consider the time frame of the past 6 years, silver is outperforming gold, as the number of ounces of silver needed to buy gold has narrowed from 80 to 55.

So then, why is silver not at $50/oz. yet?

The reason, I think, is that gold is not at $850 (circa 1980).  The reason is that the measuring stick of the dollar is completely broken.  

We must adjust for inflation since 1980.  Today's gold market will be like the gold market of 1980 only after you adjust for inflation.  We are not there yet.
 But a key difficulty is: "How should we adjust for inflation?"  

We can adjust via the CPI, the government produced inflation statistics, but these, most agree, understate inflation.

An online inflation calculator quickly shows that $850 in 1980 is really $2275 in 2006.

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

However, my research shows that M3 in 1980 was $1.8 trillion.  Today, M3 is just over $13 trillion, as pointed out by http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html#m3b

So, 13 divided by 1.8 is 7.2, which is what we need to multiply the 1980's gold price by, to get a more accurate "money creation inflation" adjusted price for today's dollars.

$850 x 7.2 = $6120

Gold, today is not at $6120/oz., and therefore, there is not the same kind of excitement about gold today like there was in 1980.  By the time gold hits $6120, or a somewhat higher price by the time we reach it, because it will take time to get there, and during that time there will be even more dollar price inflation by which to adjust, I would only then expect a similar excitement about gold that existed in 1980.

I believe it is that kind of excitement that will drive the ratio price of silver to gold back to the historic norm of 15:1, and most likely exceed it.

So, by the time gold hits $6120/oz., or higher, silver will hit $408/oz. or higher.  (Because $6120 divided by 15 equals $408.)

And by then, silver will have merely "kept pace" with gold, having returned to the historic ratio.  And that's what we could expect if the investment outlook for both metals was about the same.

However, for a whole host of reasons which I will now list, I expect the silver price to do significantly better than that.  

Primarily, the silver to gold ratio held for hundreds of years at about 10-15 to 1, during which time silver and gold were money around the world.  But in the late 1800's, Germany stopped using silver as money, and silver began to be "demonetized" as nations went to the "gold standard".  

The Democrats in America, back in the late 1800's supported silver as money, while the Republicans supported only gold as money, but not silver.  The Democrats were seen as inflationists, on the side of debtors and the masses of people, while the Republicans supported creditors, such as banks and businesses.  

The original story of the Wizard of Oz was like a parable of the battle between silver and gold.  The original "ruby shoes" that Dorothy wore in the movie were really originally "silver shoes" that would set everything all right again, and end the nightmarish fantasy of the "yellow brick road" which was a symbol of the gold standard, and backed up by nothing more than a funny man in an Emerald City (green paper money) who made loud scary noises behind a curtain.

Today's Democrats have morphed into a party that still supports inflation, but via higher government domestic spending programs.  And most of today's Republicans have morphed into a party that tries to defend the value of the dollar by waging war on nations that think of selling oil for Euros instead of dollars.

I explain all of that, because I find it fascinating, but also because it goes to show the reduced monetary demand for silver was a trend that started over 100 years ago.  This very long trend of a reduced monetary demand for silver continued all the way until 1964, when it really accelerated and was completed, which was the last year that silver was coined as money in the U.S.  But the demonetization trend continued as old people of the last of the "silver money era" die off as they are doing today, and as ignorant 60 year old baby boomers inherit that silver, and typically sell the silver to invest in the real estate bubble.

I believe that trend of "silver demonetization" of over 100 years is now over, and ended for good.  Why?  Because people are going to make tons and tons of money as silver rises from $15/oz. to over $408/oz., and people are now seeing the potential of that, and are investing money into silver, and using silver as a store of value again, which, in other terms, means a return to "monetary demand".  

Money, after all, serves several purposes, as a unit of account, a means of exchange, and a store of value.  As investors buy silver to make money, they are using silver as money (as a store of value), and this is the return of monetary demand for silver, which is the reversal of the trend of over 100 years.

But a funny thing happened to silver just over 60 years ago.  The age of electronics began.  At the end of World War II, there was a boom in the use of electric devices that needed silver for the electrical contact switches.  Per capital silver demand skyrocketed in about two years, up tenfold, from about less than a tenth of an ounce of silver used per year, to nearly 7 tenths of an ounce of silver consumed per year per person in the U.S.  And that rate of silver consumption has stayed about the same ever since.

During that time frame, I estimate that about 8 billion ounces of silver were consumed in the U.S. alone, most irretrievably lost forever to be re-deposited back into landfills, and never recycled, nor recyclable.  That's about 1/5 of all the silver ever mined by all of humanity.  The rest of the world probably consumed the other 3/5ths of the silver, leaving less than 1/5 remaining.

Most of the rest of the silver sits in forms that are uneconomic to recycle.  For example, you may have purchased a silver ring recently for $25, and it may contain about 1/5th of an ounce of silver.  Well, you just bought silver at $125/oz. or so if you have purchased any silver jewelry.  Silver is even more expensive if it is in the form of tableware or cups.  

So, although monetary demand for silver is slowly beginning to return, it still has not started yet in any significant and meaningful way.

Silver investment demand may only be about 50 million ounces per year, while silver recycling probably stands at about 200 million ounces.

So, with so little silver available for investment, silver is easily set to outpace gold, and exceed the historic 15 to 1 ration by the time there is any public excitement about the precious metals.

By the time even 1% of the nation's $13 trillion in liquid wealth tries to buy gold and silver within a year, the price of gold will probably exceed $3000/oz., and the price of silver would probably exceed $150/oz.

Let me show again how small the silver market really is.  The annual production is about 650 million ounces, with recycling about 200 million, and other silver sold about 50 million ounces.  That's a total of about 900 million physical ounces of "fresh" silver entering the market, in a year.  That is balanced by about 900 million ounces of consumption, which is balanced by about 45% demand in electronics, about 30% demand in jewelry, and about 20% demand in photography.  About 5% is investment demand.

Oh, I suppose more silver than that actually trades each year, as some investors sell silver to other investors, but that's the total net flows. 

But if new investors enter the market, they will have to displace that 900 million ounce annual flow (which can only be done at higher prices), and there is little silver left for any new significant monetary demand, that will surely be coming in the near future now that inflation is picking up 



As silver moves from $16/oz. to $408/oz., which is literally guaranteed by historical ratios and historical inflation measures, and insured by the silver scarcity, many people will make well over 2500% (as denominated in dollars) on their silver investment.



Sincerely

Jason Hommel


----------



## numbercruncher

Pretty good graph showing Inflation adjusted price over the times!

I like the Money supply adjusted price though, makes me feel all warm and furry inside lol


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> Absolutely, that is cause for celebration!
> 
> Uncle Festivus, with this short are you anticipating an interim top here, or just an intra-day trade..?
> 
> Anyone else finding it never makes an important move until you've sat down for dinner?   lol




It would be funny but....
How did the short go.... it was only ever going to be very short term, (although expecting a retracement of sorts tonight) based on momentum....
took another short @ 890, set stop, go to dinner, & I kid you not,
come back, stopped out, price drops $10 immediately after getting stopped out!!   .

Trading, 90% luck or something!! doh! I'll stick to investing, better results 

---------------

I'm not sure I have the same enthusiasm for silver this time round, as I can't see the same fundamentals to drive it such as gold has. It will most likely play poor cousin, following gold rather than leading....

---------------

Interesting info about the Fed and President JFK. Apparently he enacted a law that made Fed issued notes illegal, and has never been repealed, so all Fed issued money is illegal?. JFK American notes were to be backed by silver and gold. Get in the way of the Fed families and get assassinated? Just another conspiracy?


----------



## barrett

Uncle Festivus said:


> It would be funny but....
> How did the short go.... it was only ever going to be very short term ie today based on momentum....
> took another short @ 890, set stop, go to dinner, & I kid you not,
> come back, stopped out, price drops $10 immediately after getting stopped out!!   .
> 
> Trading, 90% luck or something!! doh! I'll stick to investing, better results




Ouch.. yeah same happened to me yesterday.. bought four contracts yesterday in early 870s and all stopped out before the run up..  talk about paying full price for market tuition   Only left with the two I bought at 826 to pay the bills.. better than nothing but still, have missed out on a lot setting stops too high in this run


----------



## explod

Boyou said:


> Hi explod. I'll respond to your question .I suppose this belongs on the silver thread ,but,what the heck... Perhaps the question is a bit chicken and egg/cause and effect.Which does the leading Gold or Silver?
> 
> This article is relevant , I think.I had to edit a bit to fit the maximum character rule
> 
> 
> Jason Hommel




First I thanks Boyou, for your effort and the post.  Jason Hommel's website and free newsletter I recieved weekily for a couple or years till  about 12 months ago.  I think he is a bit on the far fetched side and some of his predictions are stretched too.  Having said that I still believe silver one of the best leverages to the prescious metals bull.   I think the trend itself is the best guide as she goes.

The trend is up, should continue and while she does we will see what pans out.  Why have I called it in the feminine??


----------



## Miner

numbercruncher said:


> Mellow
> 
> Perth Mint Gold product , a call warrant, listed on the asx code ZAUWBA would probably suit what you describe.
> 
> heres a read on it http://http://www.asx.com.au/investor/warrants/how/gold_pmg.htm




You are right. Some one else advised me too about this in this forum.
However in actuality this is traded very thinly. There is another trade in ASX in the name of GOLD. The difference is ZAUWBA is to be paid for 0.01 ounce of gold where as GOLD is to be paid @0.1 ounce of gold as an upfront payment.

Regards


----------



## barrett

This is not much use after the event, didn't want to spoil the party before (I wasn't trading on it anyway, just practicing EW methods as a beginner).  

Wavepicker or Nick, is this anything similar to your count at the moment? 

The count written on the chart as it is here would be very bearish, but I am considering an alternative, very bullish potential count here.. that 5 at the top of the chart is not in fact 5, but I of 5 that would unfold into the mid 900's. 

Given all the momentum here, and the gold bullishness indices (marketvane, hulbert) had not yet reached boiling hot levels to my knowledge.. and the recent gold breakout in multiple currencies.. and silver now confirming gold.. and the recent buy signal in the XAU:gold ratio, and the HUI holding firm at least in the first 10 minutes of trade tonight, etc...   could this be a big interim buying opportunity in bullion for an extended wave 5?

Thanks in advance,
Barrett


----------



## barrett

I can't get over how the HUI and XAU are actually rallying slightly in the face of a $25 drop in gold.. don't think I've seen anything similar since 13-15 December 2005, when the HUI barely flinched during a sudden >$50 correction in gold..  HUI then immediately began a sharp rally from 260 to 400 in the four months after.  

I guess anything could happen on close here, but so far this seems pretty interesting to me..


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> I can't get over how the HUI and XAU are actually rallying slightly in the face of a $25 drop in gold.. don't think I've seen anything similar since 13-15 December 2005, when the HUI barely flinched during a sudden >$50 correction in gold..  HUI then immediately began a sharp rally from 260 to 400 in the four months after.
> 
> I guess anything could happen on close here, but so far this seems pretty interesting to me..




A one hundred or so gold rise which holds can have an enormous effect on a gold producers bottom line.  I will talk hyperthetical:

Say it cost a gold mine $600 to produce an ounce of gold and the sell price is $700, the price goes to $800 and holds, we have a 100% increase in profit.

The real gold rush will get going during the next producers reporting seasons but it is being factored in now to a large degree


----------



## Sean K

barrett said:


> I can't get over how the HUI and XAU are actually rallying slightly in the face of a $25 drop in gold.. .



My charts must be on the blink, because I only see a $10 ish drop.

Whatever the case, if it's off considerably, it is very interesting that the indexes are moving up against the tide. Punters think there's more to go obviously, unless there was a bunch of M&A rumour/action driving things...

Crystal ball, potential double top looming, but pretty unlikely given that support.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> My charts must be on the blink, because I only see a $10 ish drop.
> 
> Punters think there's more to go obviously, unless there was a bunch of M&A rumour/action driving things...
> 
> Crystal ball, potential double top looming, but pretty unlikely given that support.




Dont' know about the punters but still maintain investors are seeing the new alternative to the weakening market, and part of that is for the reasons I outlined above.  Just fundamental common sense.


----------



## treefrog

explod said:


> Dont' know about the punters but still maintain investors are seeing the new alternative to the weakening market, and part of that is for the reasons I outlined above.  Just fundamental common sense.




weakening or Deja Vu


----------



## ithatheekret

p-po said:


> Good question - There are some really good historical indicators for determining how high the gold price will go. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx  And dont tell me it won't go that high without hard evidence or arguments because I've heard all the 'empty' cynicism since I started buying gold stocks in 2000.




Actually Andrew it was a statement . One I'm sure many know .

Positive Mental Attitude . 

A state of mind , one we must mould to suit our objective . It doesn't matter which way the markets moves , P.M.A. cuts off emotional factors to zero , the rest is just math and the business .


I like your blog and shall revisit . Nothing derogatory in this assumption ....... your linguistic syntax suggests to me , you have experience in Forex . 
I think the current static in the market has nothing to do with linear projections . The worlds bourse can be reshuffled and the fillers will take up any slack caused by the previous tenants .
Once a decent reshuffle and laggards earnings return , the linear projections can start again . Miners were laggards for decades .........
Speaking of laggards , their was a historical price on soybeans last night $13 .

By the way , I don't tell and I don't argue , *I debate and put my view forward* comrade .


----------



## treefrog

Uncle Festivus said:


> It would be funny but....
> How did the short go.... it was only ever going to be very short term, (although expecting a retracement of sorts tonight) based on momentum....
> took another short @ 890, set stop, go to dinner, & I kid you not,
> come back, stopped out, price drops $10 immediately after getting stopped out!!   .
> 
> Trading, 90% luck or something!! doh! I'll stick to investing, better results
> 
> QUOTE]
> 
> quite a few broker's trading platforms in forex and commodities make sure they take out the nearby stops just as it moves - so give your stop plenty of breathing space or don't tell them where yours is (manual)


----------



## explod

treefrog said:


> weakening or Deja Vu




Agree, the HUI is at an all time high at close of trade this am and is looking overbought.  So for short term I am on watch


----------



## ithatheekret

$12-$13 off the top already , looks like a correction already , if it's in POG it will probably show up in softer commodities as well . Dubai markets smashed it down , started in London . Presidents in the M.E. for a week , a whole week . must be playing ABBA songs with his mates .... money , money , money .............


Either that or he's hiding from Hilary ..........

Everything is correcting in the same week , now how's that for volatility ......


Calls for a 50 basis points cut . I'd be amazed if they got it , but Ben seems to be a pretty easy going , go with the flow kinda guy  .   
I think he's more inclined to give them a razor for the bankers wrists , and the axe for mortgage payers . The axe works better with gravity .

BoE slammed the cupboard door shut on a cut , even as Marks and Sparks pleaded for mercy . Tougher than a hanging judge at the old Bailey , I bet UK homeowners wish they could vote the BoE board away .


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> $12-$13 off the top already , looks like a correction already , if it's in POG it will probably show up in softer commodities as well . Dubai markets smashed it down , started in London . Presidents in the M.E. for a week , a whole week . must be playing ABBA songs with his mates .... money , money , money .............




Yes. I was looking at AUD Gold technicals today again, from the trade I took on it about $83. It went vertical past my eventual probable breakout target, and nudged up against the maximum target I would have pushed it to. Wanted to go short at first sign of weakness, but am buggered from work, so am leaving it alone to protect from brain errors tonight.

It's a bit of a concern that Barrett is the only one that seems to have picked up that near vertical blow off top. Things don't continue to go vertical without severe short term consequences.

Looking like a big gap fill tonight, and how it reacts to that (i.e. filling or selling into it) will determine trade direction for the next week I would say...


----------



## ithatheekret

I think my last exits would have been timely , the day had worn itself out on the moves , very OB , needs it's space .

The Euro has been the thing that has my eyes , been all over the place with it up down and around , Cable was a simpler decision .

Let's see if the 341/42 method works here , remember that brawl ?

Risque to call bottoms , but will try 868 through to 871/872 ish only areas that have come up in each calculation so far . Got one 869 patch in there too , it's odd because it's the first time that area has shown up in the figures , even though we know the price area has to be there , we went passed it ........

On the last run through I have no 839 this time either , gain one lose one .....


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> I think my last exits would have been timely , the day had worn itself out on the moves , very OB , needs it's space .
> 
> The Euro has been the thing that has my eyes , been all over the place with it up down and around , Cable was a simpler decision .
> 
> Let's see if the 341/42 method works here , remember that brawl ?
> 
> Risque to call bottoms , but will try 868 through to 871/872 ish only areas that have come up in each calculation so far . Got one 869 patch in there too , it's odd because it's the first time that area has shown up in the figures , even though we know the price area has to be there , we went passed it ........
> 
> On the last run through I have no 839 this time either , gain one lose one .....




I'm thinking of that gap down to 861. I thought that's where we would be heading tonight. But, there was a big buying spike in there. Gold just seems to be travelling between these buying and selling spikes at the moment. So, I'm expecting sideways movement for a while yet. Another possibility is down to about 840, if the upper levels don't hold. But I can't see that happening anytime soon unless it really gets some steam up. Just way too much strength on any weakness.


----------



## ithatheekret

We'll have to see who gets the closest Chops .

No panic for me only holding physical now , done the deed I needed to do , bet I get strange little oriental knick knacks when on the return .

Last visit , there were people handing out tissues etc. on street corners , not much of a job , don't know if that's their gainful employment system or what .... 


Just looking at the S&P , yep stuffs cheap alright , been down to 1390 got a dose of miracle tonic and they're still selling it . Must be the banks bad breathe . Even MBIA looks good , hmm should I go to bed or book a doctors appointment  .

No curbs out though ........


----------



## barrett

Actually I think Uncle Festivus might have to take the honours there Chops for placing a short within $1 of the top.. stopped out but still, it was quite a call..

The way this market is following EW theory is uncanny to me, the chart below looks straight out of Frost&Prechter..  ithatheekret to me the bottom just now at 865 seemed imminent in real time as the market approached it, given the wave count (wave c normally won't want to come below the top of wave i).. and the lower channel boundary..  on account of this chart I nearly bought 4GC at 867 but desperately needed some sleep.. an hour later I have neither sleep nor the money lol.  But I mean, in this kind of setup EW is useful, in other cases not so..

Still long but still undecided between the 'superbull 950' count and the grizzly count in the last chart.. EW suggests we are are due for quite a major interim top since the beginning of this impulse at 643.. and yet this recent activity did not quite have the flavour of a mania to me, yet..  if this thing were to convincingly take out 891 then onwards towards more of a real 'mini-mania' top I would say.  Until 891 is claimed I'm also 'wait and see' here but mindful of the fact that if we are near or past a major interim top (will post longer term charts), a quite substantial correction of possibly over $100 would be on the cards, as Marc Faber is expecting    

Dennis Gartman sold 50% of his gold position at around the top.. as of yesterday was expecting a correction to around 825 in coming days.. will be interested to see whether tonight's action changes his view..
cheers


----------



## ithatheekret

I just went in to squizzy about thought won't hurt to take a dip opp . except I get on site and WTF it's $882 knocking on $883 again , blimey didn't take long to shaft that idea , I expected to see 870's . Quicker than a claytons recession . Fritz , fritz and fritz .


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> I just went in to squizzy about thought won't hurt to take a dip opp . except I get on site and WTF it's $882 knocking on $883 again , blimey didn't take long to shaft that idea , I expected to see 870's . Quicker than a claytons recession . Fritz , fritz and fritz .




Maybe we have too many trying to buy the dips now.  All this talk from Bullion desk and others that gold is an alternative in hard times.  

I am a confused man.   Off to sleep now. being picked up at 0530 for a day of Roulette.  Good to be there to greet the POET's, I mean the workers.


----------



## ithatheekret




----------



## barrett

omg .. 895 ... 900 in sight?  this is nuts:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> *Gold futures rallied to a new all-time high Thursday, after the dollar fell sharply as investors interpreted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's prepared remarks as a sign that the central bank will further cut interest rates. *
> 
> Gold for February delivery soared as high as $897.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a new record high that surpassed the previous record of $894.40 set on Wednesday.




It appears that gold is still aligned closest to the good ol' $US, so as long as even the slightest hint that US interest rates are going to be lowered then should be continually supportive of gold, despite the technicals calling for a retracement, but still within the now normal daily trading range of $30 or so. 

In fact, it might pay to be counter contrarian - if the expectation is for a big sell-off then start buying? The poor old gold bugs are used to getting hammered after a strong rise, so were quick to offload their trade positions (as opposed to investment positions) exacerbating the correction. Only this time it is met with even more support, so the trading mantra may be changing. ( having said that, be prepared for the mother of all sell offs ???).

I think US rates are heading to both actual zero & effective negative, a mirror of that other well known basket case called Japan. Monetary debasement on a logarithmic scale now so may expect the continued opposite reaction from tangable, scarce, stores of value?

For 7 years or so I've watched the small Kitco chart as a quick sign of interest and volatility ie the scale of the Y axis, which is out to $50 these days, I remeber the old days when it would scarcely move $2. Gold down $30 - so what? We are becoming accustomed to sell offs in this range now, similar to the XJO in the later stages of the bull market. The difference here is that the gold bull may only be entering another, more 'manic', exponential phase? I liken $900 similar to the old $700 barrier, thar she blows, off and running.


----------



## rederob

barrett said:


> omg .. 895 ... 900 in sight?  this is nuts:



More importantly it traded through a $30 range, suggesting further volatility and that a $1000 figure could be reached quickly - within the month.
I refer a less rapid ascent, but take what comes.


----------



## ithatheekret

If you guys would like a giggle at my expense , would you like to know my projection for Skippy , but I don't know how long it will take yet .

Remember the septic sailing round Freo way way back , just before and around then is one historical point of reference .


----------



## chops_a_must

barrett said:


> Actually I think Uncle Festivus might have to take the honours there Chops for placing a short within $1 of the top.. stopped out but still, it was quite a call..



Indeed!

I haven't traded Gold since it went through 660, because I can't seem to get anything lining up with the movements. And I'm certainly not going short anytime soon, reasons stated last night, because this is just a one way trade at the moment. Just brutal strength. Going to need a fair amount of effort to kill it.

I'm not thinking of selling my physical anytime soon. More or less just wondering when to buy more.


----------



## barrett

Uncle Festivus said:


> It appears that gold is still aligned closest to the good ol' $US, so as long as even the slightest hint that US interest rates are going to be lowered then should be continually supportive of gold, despite the technicals calling for a retracement, but still within the now normal daily trading range of $30 or so.
> 
> In fact, it might pay to be counter contrarian - if the expectation is for a big sell-off then start buying? The poor old gold bugs are used to getting hammered after a strong rise, so were quick to offload their trade positions (as opposed to investment positions) exacerbating the correction. Only this time it is met with even more support, so the trading mantra may be changing. ( having said that, be prepared for the mother of all sell offs ???).
> 
> I think US rates are heading to both actual zero & effective negative, a mirror of that other well known basket case called Japan. Monetary debasement on a logarithmic scale now so may expect the continued opposite reaction from tangable, scarce, stores of value?
> 
> For 7 years or so I've watched the small Kitco chart as a quick sign of interest and volatility ie the scale of the Y axis, which is out to $50 these days, I remeber the old days when it would scarcely move $2. Gold down $30 - so what? We are becoming accustomed to sell offs in this range now, similar to the XJO in the later stages of the bull market. The difference here is that the gold bull may only be entering another, more 'manic', exponential phase? I liken $900 similar to the old $700 barrier, thar she blows, off and running.




Festivus I like your line of thinking there.. there was a sudden wave of negativity coming from the gold timing newsletters yesterday and I think a 'counter-contrarian' stance could well be on the money.  Just right now we have gold consolidating above the peak of earlier this week, while last night the HUI conclusively broke out to a new all time high.  They're not the sorts of things I would expect to see at a top.

Given this, I am thinking that the more bullish of the two EW count alternatives is more likely to be the correct one.   If so it would mean that wave 5 at the top of the two last charts I posted is in fact only wave I of wave 5.

  That would be extremely bullish for gold in the short term.  How bullish... wave i went from 855 to 891, that's 36.  Wave III is never shorter than wave I... so from the bottom of wave 3 at 865 that at least takes us to 901.  But more usually it is around twice wave I..  that would take us to 937.  Then there's wave V on top of this..... and so to the rather 'out there' idea that gold will travel to over $950 within the next month or so before the interim top is in.  I could be wrong and maybe we'll just bounce off 900 and game over, but the stops can take care of that!    

Planning to buy more in the next hour or so at support levels.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alMoNFmNY89I&refer=home

On sentiment, having a look at this article in bloomberg for example... the analysts are certainly bullish, but they're not yet saying "I think gold will be $2000 by summer", they're saying 'it's only getting started, most people don't have the asset, gold "is on track to reach $1000 in 2008"...  that sort of reserved talk....  I'm just not seeing their comments as heavy enough yet to get contrarian about yet.

Anyone who thinks I'm really misguided on this, don't hold your punches
Barrett


----------



## numbercruncher

Gold is a commodity and a currency and in these uncertain times demand surely isnt going away anythime soon!

Look at all that cash in Sovereign wealth funds, all nervous at the USD. 

Read a hilarious one liner today...

 " The US dollar is going to fall apart faster than Michael Jackson’s face " 

lol love it ...


----------



## ithatheekret

I don't have a $901 in my figures ... yet ... I do have $898/99 now , which in my view is very good . I have $902/3 & $905 too .

I've got a $937 though , $937/39  $940/1/2 and *$945/48/50/53/56/58 * 

there's another tranch above that into the $970 area , but it too has conflicting projections on the current data , which in my view is what we'd technically call exhaustion / then correction , above $956 the ratios rise quite high , to me that means higher volalitility again , higher swings and dips . I've used milder than actual inflation numbers too to acheive the product too . 

So I think a lead into the $945 area will be interesting , I'll put my hand up for a pencilling in at $956 to $958 as the shake up zone .


----------



## barrett

Ithatheekret those numbers are interesting, if it breaks 900 and holds there.. a fairly steady rally up to say 945 seems within reason.  

Gartman letter just in...  gold has just taken out the 600 EUR milestone.. now 603 but he doubts it will take out 900 USD.. hmm..  he's still substantially long gold but says the demands on his time for gold interviews in the past week were incredible.. says that always coincides with/near tops.   Since he's in the front pew I have to say I'm a bit uncomfortable fading Gartman's bearish call.. but I do note he is still long (1/2 position), and I recall in Oct he started paring back just before 800, before the top at 845.

There is fibo support at 888 that held for now, and more in low 880s, if it breaks through the 50% level at 880 I think I would start to question the short-term bull count, but if I can stay awake I'll likely try buying one of those levels with stops


----------



## ithatheekret

News of the reratings seems to coming out now , makes one wonder what rating they have for gold . There'll be a bit of reshuffling on the cards , the majority of it could be compulsory for quite a few funds .
Gartman better get a stand-in , I'd bet his interview schedule ends up with a string of double bookings this time round .

Does anyone have the latest saffron prices ?


----------



## barrett

rofl 
long 2@ 890


----------



## explod

Well just look at that solid chart

You have all done a great job this week, happy to bludge in the back seat and just plod along.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A few signs for 'big numbers' people - Gold $US900, $AU1000, EU600. Consolidation while it digests?

Even though the aussie golds were caught up with the riff raff stocks sell off yesterday, the yanks took no notice. DOW down 250, NEM up 80c or 1.5%, XAU up similar %.

Amazing how humans' think - oz gold still at $1000 but the weak hands selling with the rest??

So what will cause a sell off in gold? I think it will be purely technical/momentum style for as long as big US corporates (Citi, Merril etc) continue to play tag team billion dollar write down then the fundamentals will continue to support speculative entries. 

I think there will be one more 'swapping' of momentum of the big money back to equities & out of gold in the short term as one final hurrah to the end of the equities 'bull' (in gold terms they actually went backwards, but we'll let them think it was a bull )

But the signs are there for a greater participation rate of the general public so the fat lady hasn't even entered the building yet . (yes, I got the funny looks too a few years back when I was telling colleagues to buy gold, now they want to know all about it )


----------



## rederob

Two years ago the upholders of forum virtues pretty much told me to take a cold a shower when I forecast gold would hit $850 last year, and $1000 this year.
True, POG first hit $850 on the second trading day of 2008, but it came close for 2 months from November onwards.
Which probably means I miss out on my (2006) forecast of$1000 gold in 2008!
The reality is that we never know anything for sure until after the event.
The other reality is that probabilities provide market players a better guide to good fortune than the hit and miss of "luck".
The probability of gold going markedly higher over the next 2 years needs to be balanced against the opposite probability.
We do this most simply by determining the factors that are likely to drive gold lower.  
The first and most powerful factor to consider is gold destocking by Central Banks and other parties. Apart from up to $500 tonnes of annual gold sales from European banks, the present environment of a debased US currency is more likely to see banks tighten (or add to) their physical gold holdings.  So I see this factor as even less probable in the next year or so than it was last year.
The second factor is gold hedging.  Here we have a plus for the negatives! The likelihood that producers will hedge more forward gold deliveries at present (or future) high prices, has increased sharply.  This will especially be the case for near term and marginal producers.  However, the $64m question is whether or not the big players will want to again get bitten - as has been Barrick for the last 5-6 years.  My suspicion is that small fractions of future output will be locked into hedges around the $900 mark.
Mitigating against hedging is the USD denomination of gold prices.  The bigger players will be smart enough to know that if the greenback continues to tumble, then "real" gold prices will at best be "parity" prices and at worst junk prices.
I'll close my post here to keep it brief.
But invite the naysayers to elaborate as they see fit.


----------



## josjes

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#cha...ne;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

Just my humble 2 cents. Oil has just dropped from record $100 (Jan 2) to 92.7 (Jan 11). I have observed the chart of USO (Crude Oil ETF proxy) vs GLD (Gold ETF), even if they don't move up and down at the same time and value, but they strongly co-relate each other, in fact it's usually oil leads gold. Just observe the chart above, it's uncanny in their co-relation. In almost every respect, gold is now in a very similar situation as oil. You can expect that a breakout in one market also leads a break out in another. Oil has broken all time high $100, Gold quickly followed day after. So I think we are going to have a bit of healthy correction for the next 2 weeks, before the next charge to 975. Next time Oil will lead again. Watch for that space.


----------



## josjes

A picture speaks a thousand words. This is the kitco website traffic graph. 
At the height of gold price in early 2006, traffic shoot up in a straight line. Look where we are now, interest is climbing but nowhere are we in a mania mood. We still have a long way to go. This chart is a leading indicator of when to sell and buy gold, if you are trading gold shares. I never sell a gram of my gold.


----------



## ithatheekret

I have a 901* now , bft ... so  * 901/02/03/(904*) 905/06/07/08*/10 note no 909 yet

note the expansion in the numbers ........

and on the previous tranch discussed *945/46/48/50/53/58 & note new smaller tranch before 970 line 961/63/64* , also and importantly the numbers need to be repeated at least twice in all data runs or they don't pan out otherwise to date , and 898/899/and 901 has now shown up in the data twice . Eventually each tranch will meet up perfectly digits after digit in place , I have that upto a 894 so far , with very low ratios going against it , which to me tooks like the same style data I had on a very good stock , which has reacted somewhat the same to POG .

This is good in my view again , also the correllating ratios are falling whilst volatility ratios are rising , if fact the correllations are widening .

There's a few assumptions I could put forward , but would prefer to wait until I have a concise set to match up against . The Swissie is very important on the first set . It's the Swissie that has given me the secound 901 input . Soft commodities didn't get that much of a dumping , and I'd be inclined to say that wasn't a correction at all , just profit taking and shortside action .

I'll repeat that , I don't think that was a correction in POG , my ratios don't have anywhere near one , the ratios are extremely mild in fact , compared to the Indices here and stateside , we've gone off the ratio scale on our indexes , the US is showing better ratios than here , I think theve got the real pain to come yet on my figures . That's not good for American households at all , I think they're going to get solid inflation , F.A. growth and persistent inflation stoked by stimulus machinations , which is a very , very tough call for the Fed. , feed the beast or lay poison and let the wheat grow . The 'R" word just might be matched by the "H" word . Taken them long enough to say stagflation .....................


----------



## explod

josjes said:


> http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#cha...ne;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined
> 
> Just my humble 2 cents. Oil has just dropped from record $100 (Jan 2) to 92.7 (Jan 11). I have observed the chart of USO (Crude Oil ETF proxy) vs GLD (Gold ETF), even if they don't move up and down at the same time and value, but they strongly co-relate each other, in fact it's usually oil leads gold. Just observe the chart above, it's uncanny in their co-relation. In almost every respect, gold is now in a very similar situation as oil. You can expect that a breakout in one market also leads a break out in another. Oil has broken all time high $100, Gold quickly followed day after. So I think we are going to have a bit of healthy correction for the next 2 weeks, before the next charge to 975. Next time Oil will lead again. Watch for that space.




Not sure of your correlation here.   Apart from the dip in November, oil compared to gold has basically gone sideways whilst gold in the same period has gone from US$750 to almost 900.   

This whole week as oil has gone from 97.50 to 92.50 gold has gone the other way by around $30.    In fact it has gone up this week even as the $US dollar rose.

Some weeks ago it also seemed to follow the Dow but has decoupled from this as well.    The uncertainty in the markets, in particular the concern at the impending collapse of the worlds reserve currency is clearly reflected in the growing strength of the gold price


----------



## josjes

explod said:


> Not sure of your correlation here.   Apart from the dip in November, oil compared to gold has basically gone sideways whilst gold in the same period has gone from US$750 to almost 900.
> 
> This whole week as oil has gone from 97.50 to 92.50 gold has gone the other way by around $30.    In fact it has gone up this week even as the $US dollar rose.
> 
> Some weeks ago it also seemed to follow the Dow but has decoupled from this as well.    The uncertainty in the markets, in particular the concern at the impending collapse of the worlds reserve currency is clearly reflected in the growing strength of the gold price



It's not so much the amplitude of price change, but the direction of both. If you open the link above, and observe carefully the chart may have explain that better. This chart is not just over weeks, but months and years. 
So, if you believe the co-relation movement, then the fall of the price of oil last week foretell a fall of POG soon if not in the next week.


----------



## numbercruncher

> *Flight to gold as investors lose faith in money*
> 
> In the Middle Ages gold fetched nearly $3,000 an ounce in real terms. The price fell to nearer $550 when Spain flooded the world with Aztec and Inca riches, and there it hovered for three centuries.
> 
> But the modern era has been an aberration. Supply is exhausted. Perhaps we should now regard the Middle Ages as the proper benchmark price. One thing is certain: gold will outperform paper as long as governments keep increasing the global money supply 15 per cent a year.




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/01/06/ccgold106.xml


So many angles to look at, Russia I understand is aiming to keep 10pc of reserves in Gold, and with soo much money rolling in they must be continually buying.


----------



## ithatheekret

In one of my correllations I do have oil not spot on , but close to following POG with a few wanders , there are many seperations though , which takes me straight back to the Swissie , USD and the Euro figures . The Yen correlation is all over the place , which leads me to think a very strong phase of the Yen , before a collapse in the price against some of it's trading partners , except China , where strangely enough , the projected levels strengthen , I don't want to go there they can sort that one out , but it's on trade balance figures there as I don't seem to be able to get much data from that patch of the woods , either country .......

I will add this little secret I use , the monthly house decline percentage was in my earliest figures and have been discounted as has the inflation input , the data is ineffable for me at present , but let me just say , each solution I have put forward has been the lowest median extracted . The maximum projections would call for a war / hyperinflation or a complete collapse in the housing market , or all of the above . That's where the tranches above1140/1170&1190 start ,one of the above would be needed to acheive these , there are higher tranches , but they are very wide apart and inconclusive so I wouldn't even contemplate putting them forward in present circumstances .

Try pricing oil in Euros and look at projections , that'll give you a few restless night sleeps .


----------



## BREND

explod said:


> Not sure of your correlation here.   Apart from the dip in November, oil compared to gold has basically gone sideways whilst gold in the same period has gone from US$750 to almost 900.
> 
> This whole week as oil has gone from 97.50 to 92.50 gold has gone the other way by around $30.    In fact it has gone up this week even as the $US dollar rose.
> 
> Some weeks ago it also seemed to follow the Dow but has decoupled from this as well.    The uncertainty in the markets, in particular the concern at the impending collapse of the worlds reserve currency is clearly reflected in the growing strength of the gold price




I have noticed the correlation as well. Usually oil price x 9 = gold price. Hence I do expect gold price to reach a peak soon. 

But I do agree that we will see gold price reaching US$1000, maybe this year.


----------



## grace

Does anyone know if there is a thread on gold.asx?  (can't seem to find it).  Was wondering of members thoughts on this, or where thoughts are on this site if they exist?  Thankyou in advance


----------



## Stormin_Norman

as an economist, gold will continue to rise if uncertainty surrounding the 'subprime' loan market continues and inflation worries continue in the western economies. gold is a refuge, and i can see a fair few investors sailing into port.


----------



## Whiskers

grace said:


> Does anyone know if there is a thread on gold.asx?  (can't seem to find it).  Was wondering of members thoughts on this, or where thoughts are on this site if they exist?  Thankyou in advance




I'm not quite sure what you mean Grace.

Do you mean physical gold or dirivitives traded on the ASX or in Aus, or a thread on gold in AUD?


----------



## So_Cynical

I think she means _Ticker_ GOLD traded on the ASX

no theres no thread that i know of.


----------



## grace

So_Cynical said:


> I think she means _Ticker_ GOLD traded on the ASX
> 
> no theres no thread that i know of.




Yes, I mean gold (that is the code listed on our asx.....saw a write up in the bulletin mag a few months back on how to obtain exposure to gold price, and this was one suggestion)  Gold Bullion Ltd

They just buy gold and store it in a vault and charge 0.4% pa in fees.  If you can't quite buy a bullion, then perhaps this could be an alternative.  sp follows spot price I think.  No expert though.......asking the experts about it here.......

Are there others (apart from miners) on the asx to gain exposure to gold (apart from buying from the mint yourself)?


----------



## Nyden

grace said:


> Yes, I mean gold (that is the code listed on our asx.....saw a write up in the bulletin mag a few months back on how to obtain exposure to gold price, and this was one suggestion)  Gold Bullion Ltd
> 
> They just buy gold and store it in a vault and charge 0.4% pa in fees.  If you can't quite buy a bullion, then perhaps this could be an alternative.  sp follows spot price I think.  No expert though.......asking the experts about it here.......
> 
> Are there others (apart from miners) on the asx to gain exposure to gold (apart from buying from the mint yourself)?




I believe http://www.perthmint.com.au/perthmintgold.aspx
ZAUWBA Found this whilst looking for gold exposure.
I could be wrong though, I'm not exactly a gold bug : Yet, at least.

Doesn't even seem to trade though (as it's a call-warrant!), GOLD is probably a much better option; the part about the fees isn't all that appealing, though.


----------



## BREND

February is seasonally a weak month for gold, so really don't have to rush buying Gold ETF or Gold stocks. I may even initiate sell call for my clients in Feb 08.


----------



## GreatPig

Nyden said:


> Doesn't even seem to trade though (as it's [ZAUWBA] a call-warrant!)



It does trade, although typically the MM (Goldcorp) is the only one with a bid or offer.

The warrants aren't geared and are in 100ths of an ounce (not 10ths, like GOLD). There's also an annual fee if you're holding at the end of December, but it's somehow built into the spread in case you're not holding then. Read the PDS for details.

GP


----------



## Kauri

Just keeps boxing on... and on.. and oops..  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i dont know what all those lines mean, but with the USD having a depreciation on most of its cross rates, along with the continual problems surrounding the subprime market in the USA (and global exposure to it) and the russian central bank buying gold with its new found wealth, i see gold value only increasing further as these factors continue to be influencing world markets.

and to think that 8 or so years ago gold was almost worthless. as an economist i dont understand the desire for a piece of dirt, but according to the markets its the base storer of value - and if that's the case, the more speculation and uncertainty about the world economy's outlook the more money that will be 'parked'  in gold.

russia got hit in the late 90s with critically low foreign reserves. they ran out of reserves, and with gold a fraction of the current price was running out of it to sell too. the russians are probably burnt by this baptism into the capitalist world economy and are making sure it isn't repeated.

when will the gold rush end?it will end  when the current uncertain economic factors influencing the increased demand for gold subside. that's not however to say others, possibly more significant events dont change the whole equation again.


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Just keeps boxing on... and on.. and oops..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri





Yep, and you can see the same possibility almost, on then 22nd, the 27th and the 29-30th.   Line radiating up as she goes.   Just depends where one puts the lines.   We could also place one reasonably off the tops of the uptrend.      Not convinced, but who knows.   This bull is different. The basics of charting have defied a lot of the way.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.   HUI certainly looks a bit hot too.


----------



## refined silver

BREND said:


> I have noticed the correlation as well. Usually oil price x 9 = gold price. Hence I do expect gold price to reach a peak soon.
> 
> But I do agree that we will see gold price reaching US$1000, maybe this year.




The historical Gold/Oil ratio is 15, but like every ratio, continually overshoots the mean from one side to the other. That means at the peak of the gold bull the ratio will be much higher than 15, maybe 20, maybe 30, maybe higher.


----------



## refined silver

Stormin_Norman said:


> and to think that 8 or so years ago gold was almost worthless. as an economist i dont understand the desire for a piece of dirt, but according to the markets its the base storer of value - and if that's the case, the more speculation and uncertainty about the world economy's outlook the more money that will be 'parked'  in gold.




The reason for golds value is simple. It is the only thing which functions as money and has the necessary attributes - rare, divisible, transportable, accepted, and can't be produced out of thin air. It has served as money for 5,000 years of human history and will continue to. Given human nature and govt's propensity the availablility of the printing press (now electronic) to grant themselves free money by just printing more, and the result is the continual increase in the  money supply and the ultimate destruction of the "fiat" currency.


----------



## Whiskers

Stormin_Norman said:


> i dont know what all those lines mean,




That's what you call a Jack Stand. It's a new adaption (contraption) to charting 

It's stops the stairway to higher prices from falling down.


----------



## numbercruncher

Nyden said:


> I believe http://www.perthmint.com.au/perthmintgold.aspx
> ZAUWBA Found this whilst looking for gold exposure.
> I could be wrong though, I'm not exactly a gold bug : Yet, at least.
> 
> Doesn't even seem to trade though (as it's a call-warrant!), GOLD is probably a much better option; the part about the fees isn't all that appealing, though.




Reason I dont like GOLD is that The gold is physically held at the London Vaults of HSBC Bank USA.

Part of the reason I love gold is that I have reservations about the stability of the entire US financial system, so having gold stored there would make me nervous!

My preference is for Physical Gold and Gold stocks.


----------



## rederob

Whiskers said:


> That's what you call a Jack Stand. It's a new adaption (contraption) to charting
> 
> It's stops the stairway to higher prices from falling down.



Well, well well....
I thought it was an oil rig, propping up gold!


----------



## Whiskers

:bite:







rederob said:


> Well, well well....
> I thought it was an oil rig, propping up gold!




:bonk:


----------



## grace

numbercruncher said:


> Reason I dont like GOLD is that The gold is physically held at the London Vaults of HSBC Bank USA.
> 
> Part of the reason I love gold is that I have reservations about the stability of the entire US financial system, so having gold stored there would make me nervous!
> 
> My preference is for Physical Gold and Gold stocks.




What specifically would you recommend on how to gain gold exposure?  I own some gold stocks, but I think there will be a period when gold stocks will not rise as much as the price of gold - eventually, when things get bleaker.  I don't trade contracts.....I don't know how.


----------



## Real1ty

grace said:


> What specifically would you recommend on how to gain gold exposure?  I own some gold stocks, but I think there will be a period when gold stocks will not rise as much as the price of gold - eventually, when things get bleaker.  I don't trade contracts.....I don't know how.




Grace.

If you wanted exposure in non stock related investments you should have a look at your choices here

http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment.aspx

You can have Physical stored, pick it up yourself or contracts.

I trade futures thus gain an exposure that way.

I agree that gold stocks won't perform as well as Physical in the near term.

Cheers


----------



## ithatheekret

We go down to the ladies at Adelaide exchange jewellers , most cities would something similiar . Simple over the counter purchases , arrangements can be made etc..


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> We go down to the ladies at Adelaide exchange jewellers , most cities would something similiar . Simple over the counter purchases , arrangements can be made etc..




Now you tell me.  Allways prefer the ladies.  Mine from Johnson Matthey's on Collins, Melb.   Been a long wait (with doubts at times) but pleased to have the physical now.

One other thing I like is that if there were to be a sudden spike it (physical)can be turned in to cash within an hour.  Shares take four days for settlement.  Still think the shares will do better once this thingo gains momentum.


----------



## rederob

Another milestone achieved:


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> Another milestone achieved:




Yes Rederob its going and I cannot help showing that it continues uppitty uppity who knows now that it has broken this resistance.

I think the big stand would be prior to US$1000   IMHO


----------



## ithatheekret

I knew something was up , the Swissie was looking for oil , POG hit the big 9 , might explain why Cables drinking rocket fuel  , had a 196.24 alert on , set the dogs off the amount of times in beeped .

Fingers crossed for the FTSE ........ it's left the blindfold behind .


----------



## So_Cynical

Love the way it just smashed though the 900 barrier...my portfolio at
all time highs and most Goldie's have hardly moved..still heaps of potential
upside for the Sp of most gold producers.

Im amazed at the amount of great gold speccys/near producers with falling SP's


----------



## refined silver

Thats every short ever written another $50 under water since the last time posted on the subject, plus quite a few ones. 

Also, have a look at all the newsletter writers posting immanent corrections that have been posted here during the last $100 of gold's ascent. If followed, every one of those writers would have kept you out these gains.


----------



## refined silver

So_Cynical said:


> Love the way it just smashed though the 900 barrier...my portfolio at
> all time highs and most Goldie's have hardly moved..still heaps of potential
> upside for the Sp of most gold producers.
> 
> Im amazed at the amount of great gold speccys/near producers with falling SP's




Here's an article on the disconnect between seniors and juniors in PM mining shares. You're right, soon the juniors will play catch-up, the rubber band is pretty stretched.

"When will the Juniors Finally Begin to Rally?" by Boris Sobolev
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1200318000.php


----------



## ithatheekret

$905 bid $906


----------



## Whiskers

POG steaming hot alright!

MACD has just made new high. So I guess that makes it an official bull run heh! 

Stockastic over 90.5, recent high too. Gotta break back soon... but how much?


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Nope, just part of the consolidation of the classis bull run for gold.  Even in the holiday low trade the PPP are unable to hold it back, just watch from mid January.
> 
> Cash is burning and has lost the fight.   Ask a US banker.
> 
> From my t/a, the uptick out of the pennant has not happened yet but looks like the upside will happen anytime soon.




Just thought it worth revisiting our outlook from last month against where we are today.

This is not about being right.  I just want everyone to know that this bull run in gold is just a reflection of the terrible financial mess that the world is in.  The strongest and greatest empire to exist on the planet is going under.  There will be some dreadful suffering.

Back to the point, the gold rise will not follow the normal charting patterns because what is happening now is different.


----------



## Real1ty

explod said:


> Just thought it worth revisiting our outlook from last month against where we are today.
> 
> *This is not about being right*.  I just want everyone to know that this bull run in gold is just a reflection of the terrible financial mess that the world is in.  The strongest and greatest empire to exist on the planet is going under.  There will be some dreadful suffering.
> 
> Back to the point, the gold rise will not follow the normal charting patterns because what is happening now is different.




But it is very satisfying when you are and it makes you $ at the same time.

That's a real win/win 

Nice call


----------



## refined silver

explod said:


> Just thought it worth revisiting our outlook from last month against where we are today.
> 
> This is not about being right.  I just want everyone to know that this bull run in gold is just a reflection of the terrible financial mess that the world is in.  The strongest and greatest empire to exist on the planet is going under.  There will be some dreadful suffering.
> 
> Back to the point, the gold rise will not follow the normal charting patterns because what is happening now is different.




Exactly. I've been saying the same thing.

There will be many people left on the platform who got off the train for while expecting it to stop for while, and it took off without them.

Re the financial mess, here is some humour that surfaced on Wall St in August, but is just as applicable now as we see the paper financial system start to unravel....


Constant Obligation Leveraged Originated Structured Oscillating Money 
Bridged Asset Guarantees

  Investment Dealers are excited to announce the newest structured
finance product - Constant Obligation Leveraged Originated Structured
Oscillating Money Bridged Asset Guarantees, or COLOSTOMY BAGS. Designed to accommodate the most sophisticated investment strategies, Colostomy Bags contain the equity tranches of Structured High Interest Taxable Derivatives, or ****, and are leveraged an infinite amount of times through the innovative use of derivatives.

  "Its an actively managed, unlimited liability, open ended investment
with no maturity date, which pays LIBOR plus 5,000 and has no correlation to 
traditional investments" said a spokesman for the Investment Dealer who 
engineered the product. "It's based on a CDO structure, but it's
designed to default BEFORE the first coupon payment, which you'll agree has no correlation with stodgy traditional investments and is a perfect fit for
portable alpha scams, er, strategies." Following the default, each month
more leverage is added to the structure to pay for the coupon and the 
Dealer's fees which are set at 80%. "We feel the fees are reasonable,
given the adrenaline rush you'll get each month attempting to mark these."

  The Colostomy Bags carry a AAAA rating, based on the rating agencies 
opinion that they are even safer than Treasuries. "You can't use
traditional credit analysis to value these babies, no sir-ree" said a spokesman for a rating agency. "Just like Icelandic Banks, we give them the highest
rating because you just know that the Fed will bail out all the hedgies who buy these things..remember like Long Term Capital? And the best part is, the
beauty of this structure is that the loss given default is NEGATIVE, so
by extension we feel that the CDS will trade through Treasuries."

  Inhaling deeply on a fatty, he continued "We've been tinkering with
our model, which served us well for Enron and the Telecoms in '02, and our 
stress testing shows that the probability of loss in the senior tranche
is close to zero." The model, constructed of a wishing well, Joseph Jett's 
trading blotter, and drawings of Unicorns then collapsed in a heap.
"Well, back to the drawing board!" he cackled.

  A real money investor, huddled on the windowsill outside his office,
said he remained optimistic about holding the Colostomy Bags but was a bit 
concerned with the 95% decline in value on the first day they traded.
"We've taken a bit of a haircut on these but I'm waiting to see the first
servicer report, which should arrive in a few months. At first I was annoyed that the dealer who sold them to me refused to make a market in them, but that makes my job easier since I'm not tempted to sell."

  We located a hedge fund manager at a due diligence meeting in the VIP
room at Score's. He said he was skeptical of the structure at first but was
dared into buying it by a fixed income salesman. "He said to me, 'what's wrong
with you, its quadruple A rated, just buy it, what are you a pussy?' He
also said it was going into 'an index', although he didn't say which one, but
I felt that I had to buy it. And that was good enough for me, bro'."

I have no idea who is the author, but its certainly making the rounds!

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/08/constant-obliga.html


----------



## refined silver

refined silver said:


> Gold up another $9, COT open interest near record levels.
> 
> The Commercial shorts also at near record levels and every single one is under water and bleeding badly and gettign worse. So much for the suposed "smart" and Ã¯nfallible" Commercials.
> 
> When they have to cover then you'll see some fireworks.




Flippin heck! Might be some covering starting. COTs were at record levels on Friday. (Even if the short covering does happen now its a long way from the end game, just another in the long series of battles)


----------



## 56gsa

time to start melting down the jewellery?


----------



## markrmau

We all know that gold is perceived to be a hedge against inflation and dropping USD value.

I actually disagree with this rationale. I would invest in commodities that were actually consumed such as oil, copper, zinc etc - not gold which seems to be hoarded - but this is not the point of my argument.

Up until the sub-prime crisis hit, the main protagonists for gold were uber-bears such as Wayne or committed gold bugs like Rederob.

But perhaps sub-prime really did awake the fear of the masses. Look at the performance since Aug 07. Undoubtedly the valuation paradigm of gold has changed.

I think we will see 1500 USD gold in 6 months (assuming Credit Suisse is wrong of course).


----------



## Temjin

markrmau said:


> We all know that gold is perceived to be a hedge against inflation and dropping USD value.
> 
> I actually disagree with this rationale. I would invest in commodities that were actually consumed such as oil, copper, zinc etc - not gold which seems to be hoarded - but this is not the point of my argument.




Then Silver is almost a perfect candidate for you.  A commondity and also perceived as a hedge against inflation because of its "monetary" perception.



OHHHH, heheh , I was at this second hand store the other day and saw two tiny gold nuggets (one is in its natural form and other molded to a very small donut shape thingly). The larger one at 7.3 gram was valued at $280 but the smaller one at 2.4 gram (I think) was valued at only $90! I did a quick calculation and found out that I could make a profit of around $5-6 dollars if I brought the 2.4 gram one after premium. hahah

I guess prices of gold have risen too fast that street shops such as these have not priced their products in fast enough!


----------



## ithatheekret

explod said:


> Back to the point, the gold rise will not follow the normal charting patterns because what is happening now is different.




*YES YES YES , spot on cobber , the economic fans are going to slow to a halt they will be so clogged up with the amount of (expletive) that's hitting them .*

_I see Asia and here at home as the only true areas with some buffering each using different sectors_

*We've all seen historical BAD , this is going to beat that hands down , but eventually it will have spread throughout the globe , including China one day , they'll cop it just as bad as the US now , but in the future *



*So make hay whilst the sunshines !*


----------



## agro

thought i might like to add:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN1463410520080114?rpc=44

 NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold prices will test a record $1,000 an ounce this year, boosted by growing investment interest, safe-haven demand and strong market fundamentals, a Citigroup metals analyst said.

"We believe gold has entered a new investment-driven phase, in a much more hospitable macro setting. Catalysts are rotating from safe-haven demand, to currencies, to the re-flation trade, as new buyers enter the market," John Hill, director, metals research, at Citigroup in San Francisco, told clients in a note dated Sunday.

However, Hill also said he believed the broader investor base was not yet involved.

Hill kept his gold forecasts unchanged at $750 for 2008, $800 for 2009 and $820 for 2010.

"Within these ranges, we fully expect a test of $1,000 ounce in 2008," Hill said.

Hill also raised the price targets for shares of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest gold producer, to $62 from his previous estimate of $48, and to $67 from $54 for No. 2 Newmont Mining Corp (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Gold's appeal as a safe-haven investment has increased due to worries of further write-downs among major financial institutions and credit market meltdown in the United States, the world's biggest economy.

In just three weeks, spot gold has jumped nearly $120 to Monday's peak of $914.00 from a bottom of $795.30 on December 21.

(Reporting by Frank Tang; Editing by Walter Bagley)


----------



## Kauri

One of those small coily things... maybe..  
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## drillinto

Gold is the new global currency
Published: January 8, 2008 (a week ago)
Financial Times, London, UK

There was a time when gold was money. In today's uncertain world, the yellow metal is back in fashion. Bullion prices rose to a record nominal high after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan added to nervousness about the world economy. Part of gold's allure is its traditional status as a safe haven. It is seen as a store of value when everything else seems risky. But the bigger drivers behind the rising spot price are a depreciating dollar and the prospect of negative US real interest rates.

A better way to think of gold may be as central bankers used to before America dropped the gold standard: not as a commodity, but as another currency. As long as the dollar stays weak, gold's bull run will last.

The arguments for further gains in the gold price are compelling. It looks cheap, despite climbing from a low of about $250 a troy ounce in 1999, when central banks were selling reserves. The UK's decision back then to sell 60 per cent of its official holdings looks particularly poor judgment.

Prices have a long way to go before they approach the inflation-adjusted record touched in 1980 when Soviet tanks invaded Afghanistan. At yesterday's $859, gold was trading at less than half that level. It could top $1,000 and still be at the lower end of what some analysts argue is a safe haven range.

Gold is also benefiting from diversification away from equities. Commodities have emerged as a distinct asset class, with billions of dollars poured into exchange traded funds. Physical demand for jewellery may have stalled in Asia, but consumption remains strong in the Middle East. Declining output in South Africa will help support spot prices.

But it is the relationship between the dollar and the reaction of the world's central banks to the credit squeeze that some bulls would say really makes gold an attractive bet.

The US Federal Reserve's aggressive, rate-cutting response to the credit squeeze has created a risk of a sharp rise in American inflation. That in turn creates the risk of a precipitous fall in the dollar and so makes gold more attractive as a hedge.

The world's major economies have experienced rapid money supply growth of 10 per cent plus per annum in recent years. The Fed remains the world's biggest holder of gold, yet supplies of the metal are growing at only 1.5 per cent a year. If gold is a finite currency, its value against not just the dollar, but sterling and the euro too, should rise.

Moreover, a sharp decline in US real interest rates - financial markets expect another half percentage point cut this month - means that the low yield on gold matters less. It may have been a poor hedge against inflation in the past but the combination of rising consumer prices and economic stagnation may make it a better store of value.

Gold's rise shows investors are nervous. That is an important message for central banks contemplating interest rate cuts. The Fed must show it is not prepared to allow inflation to take off. Keynes called gold a barbarous relic. It has life left in it. But it is in the interests of business and consumers that its most bullish fans are proved wrong.


----------



## Miner

http://www.asx.com.au/resources/new...15_gold_tradeable_fund_in_difficult_times.htm 

Some reference from ASX site on gold ETF.

Regards


----------



## Kauri

another cross-over... another step??   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

Got a larger count for it Kauri?

Looks to have broken down severely in a matter of minutes, on big volume as well.

Rumours of an Indian price crash or something? Not a surprise though really.


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:


> Got a larger count for it Kauri?
> 
> Looks to have broken down severely in a matter of minutes, on big volume as well.
> 
> Rumours of an Indian price crash or something? Not a surprise though really.



 nothing that makes any real sense.. inmy E/W anyways.. but I am used to that..
 Indian gold buying has apparently dropped by 20% due to price.. anecdotally
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I managed 893.80 , plus commission , not enough margin to do much else due to a withdrawl .

a little bit of  movement would be nice again ...........


----------



## josjes

josjes said:


> http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#cha...ne;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined
> 
> Just my humble 2 cents. Oil has just dropped from record $100 (Jan 2) to 92.7 (Jan 11). I have observed the chart of USO (Crude Oil ETF proxy) vs GLD (Gold ETF), even if they don't move up and down at the same time and value, but they strongly co-relate each other, in fact it's usually oil leads gold. Just observe the chart above, it's uncanny in their co-relation. In almost every respect, gold is now in a very similar situation as oil. You can expect that a breakout in one market also leads a break out in another. Oil has broken all time high $100, Gold quickly followed day after. So I think we are going to have a bit of healthy correction for the next 2 weeks, before the next charge to 975. Next time Oil will lead again. Watch for that space.



_It's not so much the amplitude of price change, but the direction of both. If you open the link above, and observe carefully the chart may have explain that better. This chart is not just over weeks, but months and years.
So, if you believe the co-relation movement, then the fall of the price of oil last week foretell a fall of POG soon if not in the next week._

Finally, market downdraught has forced Gold to a deservedly overdue correction, following oil. Down 2% on strong volume, I still think this will be just a short correction, then it will shoot up to its heavenly trajectory $975-985. As I said, watch for oil closely, it will lead again when breakout occur.


----------



## ithatheekret

It's below $890 , I only wish oil would get nice dips like this , just cost $58 to fill a Astra hatch .

Of course I had to go shopping / haircuts , dragged around Gawler retail district  and missed the main dip .

Even the barbers were talking about gold in villageville , one comment was the Indians have tagged the market rumours to get the price down . It drew a smile from me , excuses abounding .

I think golds just found its own dimensions as an investment instrument , come on the pullbacks . Trading like a currency to me when I look at the live tick chart . Days of the Consols ....... ah just dreaming of fim=nancial peace that was  .

Must focus on nat gas for awhile though , I think it's got great upside with its discount to oil . Cheap clean ....... lagging .


Swissie has started a bounce , I have 108.94 to 109.04 but that must be at least 4 to 5 points out , back of envelope , as my data has been coming through in patches , must be a wireless glitch . The last batch showed 108.94-96/7ish , might go on them for a shot at it .

Those minis are wild though , just watching movements , might hold off until it settles ...... lower   fingers crossed .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Thar she blows. Targets 870, 840.


----------



## Kauri

intriguing things those little coily things so they are...


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> intriguing things those little coily things so they are...





Yes the resistance you identified on the 11th, although it broke out above, it overstretched.  A good call which I did not understand at the time.

The daily gold chart and the US gold indexes were looking very overbought so this correction was certainly on.   Would think that there is a lot of support round the US$840 mark.

A Fed move down by half percentage point will (although some factored in) will drop the dollar and give support to a new uptick in gold.

Of course it is also apparent that drops on Wall Street will add to the downside in the short term too.

Just my 2 cents


----------



## barrett

Explod, I liked the point you and refined silver made earlier that the smaller gold stocks are starting to look really undervalued, relative to the cash flow many of them will be bringing in the coming year or two.  And there will be surprise resource and reserve upgrades as they revise their gold price assumptions up.  I do worry about how some of the small early stage developers with big capex needs are going to raise any cash in this environment.  Debt will probably be unavailable to most, and equity far too expensive.

Considering these ideas I've started taking a little money out of the metal with a view to putting it into two types of gold companies, and I'm interested in people's opinions here:

1.  Early stage developers with 1Moz+ resources, very low Market Cap/oz resources - and probably a need for cash but also with strong attraction as takeover targets so they don't have to raise it themselves. eg perhaps Westonia Mining WEZ... anyone have a favourite undervalued junior developer in their sights? 

2.  Midcaps with rapidly expanding production in coming 1-2 years, like Oceana, Resolute (ASX), Minefinders, Dynasty (US) who have all the cash they need to complete development.  I'm leaning towards the high cash-cost (high leverage) plays that were spurned by investors in recent years when cash costs outstripped the gold price rise - they now seem undervalued compared to the majors and compared to the gold price.

Anyone else doing a similar re-allocation of funds.. from metal into some overlooked stocks?   cheers


----------



## josjes

The price drop is of little help to us who buy gold in Australian dollar. Yesterday an ounce is A$1008, this afternoon hardly move to A$1004, even when gold drops 2.8%. I just wish I could time it by buying $US when it's low sell it then buy gold when it's high. Anyone know how I could solve this currency issue ?


----------



## barrett

Possible upside channel breakout on the hourly here?


----------



## barrett

josjes said:


> The price drop is of little help to us who buy gold in Australian dollar. Yesterday an ounce is A$1008, this afternoon hardly move to A$1004, even when gold drops 2.8%. I just wish I could time it by buying $US when it's low sell it then buy gold when it's high. Anyone know how I could solve this currency issue ?




If you expect the $US gold price to go down and the $A gold price to remain firm, but you want to get the benefit of buying eventually at an anticipated lower $US price, you could hedge by shorting the $US against the $A to the value of the amount of gold you're planning to buy.  Should be pretty straightforward with most online currency trading accounts, there are many providers eg oanda.com, cmc markets but as I don't trade currencies I can't recommend one.  

 You can get around this by buying futures contracts on gold (denominated in $US) instead of gold itself.   That way you get to buy at the low $US gold prices, but because you're only buying a contract, only your profits are exposed to currency risk.  I prefer to do it this way rather than speculating on currencies as well as on the gold price.

If you prefer to buy actual bullion rather than a futures contract, I reckon you'd have to use something similar to the first approach if you wanted to hedge against a strong $A.


----------



## josjes

Thanks Barrett. Good idea, although it's probably make thing a wee bit more complicated, hedging the dollar. But I think there is no trick here, 
"In strong bull markets it's of paramount importance to be invested, everything else is not more than the icing on the cake" So don't fight the trend, I've observed these past 3 months, in bull markets the surprises are almost always to the upside, one of the many reasons why you shouldn't fight the trend. Just buy it and reap the rewards. Don't be stingy for saving extra few dollars and let chance pass you by. Right ?


----------



## barrett

Yeah that's right.. in a bull market you always want to be either very long, long or rarely, neutral.  You don't want to be out of a bull market.  You want even less to wade in deeply to an asset class you have just discovered and barely understand, at an interim peak.  I did that in late 2004.  My investments remained underwater for some 18 months.  It's not different this time.  The gold sector historically in nearly every year has a move of 30% _in both directions_: whether that year falls in a bull, bear or bust.  So it doesn't do to purchase too much at once unless you are sure a bottom is in place - or to overlook the near certainty of a 30% down move in gold stocks during 2008.  

IMO the smartest gold investors are not trying to outrun the hordes to buy gold at $1000/oz+.  They're buying overlooked quality deposits below ground for $10-$30/oz at the junior developers and if you're just getting into gold now I reckon that would be a great place to start.


----------



## bean

A must read for all Gold and Silver investors
The reason for the current sell off and the possible outcome if it fails

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1200422216.php


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> A must read for all Gold and Silver investors
> The reason for the current sell off and the possible outcome if it fails
> 
> http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1200422216.php



I'm not sure Bean. Isn't the basis for his argument that gold (and silver) are purely commodities that should be driven on fundamentals. I think general concensus is that gold is still a store of wealth and is a currency of sorts in itself. That's why it goes up and down due to inflation, USD declines and goepolitical tension etc. Gold in itself has very little intrinsic value actually, so if it just ran on fundamentals it'd be worth a few cents. Like diamonds would be if women weren't women. The rest of his article is based on a false premise. Or, perhaps I didn't read it well enough?


----------



## Miner

barrett said:


> Yeah that's right.. in a bull market you always want to be either very long, long or rarely, neutral.  You don't want to be out of a bull market.  You want even less to wade in deeply to an asset class you have just discovered and barely understand, at an interim peak.  I did that in late 2004.  My investments remained underwater for some 18 months.  It's not different this time.  The gold sector historically in nearly every year has a move of 30% _in both directions_: whether that year falls in a bull, bear or bust.  So it doesn't do to purchase too much at once unless you are sure a bottom is in place - or to overlook the near certainty of a 30% down move in gold stocks during 2008.
> 
> IMO the smartest gold investors are not trying to outrun the hordes to buy gold at $1000/oz+.  They're buying overlooked quality deposits below ground for $10-$30/oz at the junior developers and if you're just getting into gold now I reckon that would be a great place to start.



IMO today in a falling gold price there is an opportunity to buy some gold or GOLD.

Regards


----------



## Temjin

barrett said:


> If you expect the $US gold price to go down and the $A gold price to remain firm, but you want to get the benefit of buying eventually at an anticipated lower $US price, you could hedge by shorting the $US against the $A to the value of the amount of gold you're planning to buy. Should be pretty straightforward with most online currency trading accounts, there are many providers eg oanda.com, cmc markets but as I don't trade currencies I can't recommend one.
> 
> You can get around this by buying futures contracts on gold (denominated in $US) instead of gold itself. That way you get to buy at the low $US gold prices, but because you're only buying a contract, only your profits are exposed to currency risk. I prefer to do it this way rather than speculating on currencies as well as on the gold price.
> 
> If you prefer to buy actual bullion rather than a futures contract, I reckon you'd have to use something similar to the first approach if you wanted to hedge against a strong $A.




Yep, in theory, you can easily do this via an interactivebroker account.

They do the hedging automatically for you.

As in when you buy USD dominated shares (like GLD for the gold ETF), you will be borrowing USD dollars to buy the shares and pay the interest on that borrowed amount. Your AUD cash will remain in the account and accumulate interest. (over a certain amount anyway) This is essentially the same as buying AUD/USD currency pair.

You will then be hedged against a drop in USD value (or a rise in AUD) with profits being exposed to currency risk. 

One future currency contract is a comparatively large hedging position, at least to me anyway. That's $100,000 US dollars.


----------



## Temjin

kennas said:


> I'm not sure Bean. Isn't the basis for his argument that gold (and silver) are purely commodities that should be driven on fundamentals. I think general concensus is that gold is still a store of wealth and is a currency of sorts in itself. That's why it goes up and down due to inflation, USD declines and goepolitical tension etc. Gold in itself has very little intrinsic value actually, so if it just ran on fundamentals it'd be worth a few cents. Like diamonds would be if women weren't women. The rest of his article is based on a false premise. Or, perhaps I didn't read it well enough?




No, what he meant is that the prices of gold and silver are being MANIPULATED by very few "commercial" traders. These very few traders are solely responsible for keeping the precious metal prices down right now because if they weren't shorting, everyone else including the miners will be long, and I meant VERY net long. That would probably force the metal prices to shoot up to the moon.   

There are really no reasons why these "commercial" traders are shorting such a large position. Most large cap miners have already closed their hedge book so they aren't making the trades.

So who are they?

Of course, Theodore Butler couldn't find out because everytime he request for more investigative actions, he get bounced back by the regulations saying there are no such manipulations, all these large shorters are fine and everything is fine. (and worse, before, he just got ignored totally) 

Personally, I think there is a consipracy theory involved in this. Why would anyone make such a big short trade, knowing that they are losing tens of millions per day as gold prices keep advancing? I think the central banks/governments may be involved and are controlling the regulations. They could easily meet the margin call/loses just by keep printing money and feeding the shorts. The purpose is to prevent the public from losing their confidences in their fiat money, and thus, artifically pushing the gold/silver prices down.

The cost of these shorts are FAR LESS than the lost of confidences in their fiat money. 

I admire Ted Butler for fighting against the manipulation but then I don't think it will be any good for him if he pushes too far. (and piss "certain" ppls off)


----------



## Kauri

regardless of the E/W count... just on Fibs alone... will be watching the ret areas...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## josjes

Temjin said:


> No, what he meant is that the prices of gold and silver are being MANIPULATED by very few "commercial" traders. These very few traders are solely responsible for keeping the precious metal prices down right now because if they weren't shorting, everyone else including the miners will be long, and I meant VERY net long. That would probably force the metal prices to shoot up to the moon.
> 
> There are really no reasons why these "commercial" traders are shorting such a large position. Most large cap miners have already closed their hedge book so they aren't making the trades.
> 
> So who are they?
> 
> Of course, Theodore Butler couldn't find out because everytime he request for more investigative actions, he get bounced back by the regulations saying there are no such manipulations, all these large shorters are fine and everything is fine. (and worse, before, he just got ignored totally)
> 
> Personally, I think there is a consipracy theory involved in this. Why would anyone make such a big short trade, knowing that they are losing tens of millions per day as gold prices keep advancing? I think the central banks/governments may be involved and are controlling the regulations. They could easily meet the margin call/loses just by keep printing money and feeding the shorts. The purpose is to prevent the public from losing their confidences in their fiat money, and thus, artifically pushing the gold/silver prices down.
> 
> The cost of these shorts are FAR LESS than the lost of confidences in their fiat money.
> 
> I admire Ted Butler for fighting against the manipulation but then I don't think it will be any good for him if he pushes too far. (and piss "certain" ppls off)



I agree with this 'Conspiracy Theory'. Below please find the net positions of the commercials (the smart money) in the commitment of traders (COT) reports of gold and silver, The thick blue horizontal line is the zero line, the "smartos" have never been long since 2001, but without exception short - while gold has more than tripled and silver even quadrupled. To add insult to injury, particularly in gold you have permanent new short records, So the big "smartos" have been suffering staggering costs for many years, how is that possible ? The government don't want people to lose confidence in Fiat Money. For now I think is the situation similar 2003, late 2004, late 2005 and early 2006 when also new record shorts were set and yet the market partly corrected and partly continued to advance for months. They are trying with their inflated money to suppress POG as much as they can. Imagine when they are running out of the money printing presses ... Dooms Day scenario ??


----------



## barrett

Rounded bottom forming here over the past day..+ breakout. right on the boundary now. I'm trading it


----------



## barrett

josjes said:


> I agree with this 'Conspiracy Theory'. Below please find the net positions of the commercials (the smart money) in the commitment of traders (COT) reports of gold and silver, The thick blue horizontal line is the zero line, the "smartos" have never been long since 2001, but without exception short - while gold has more than tripled and silver even quadrupled. To add insult to injury, particularly in gold you have permanent new short records, So the big "smartos" have been suffering staggering costs for many years, how is that possible ? The government don't want people to lose confidence in Fiat Money. For now I think is the situation similar 2003, late 2004, late 2005 and early 2006 when also new record shorts were set and yet the market partly corrected and partly continued to advance for months. They are trying with their inflated money to suppress POG as much as they can. Imagine when they are running out of the money printing presses ... Dooms Day scenario ??




I'm with you on the government manipulation.. it's real alright.  And that probably does account for the increasing 'commercial' short position over the years. 

The 'smart' reputation, particularly for short term trading, relates to when they are more short and when they are less short (or more long, pre-'01).  When their short position is low (eg 60-80k contracts net short) it confirms a buying opportunity.. that should be the main use of the gold COT interpretation.  Mid last year I stupidly was waiting for the 60k figure, which it never quite reached. 

A detailed comparison of the blue and yellow lines on the chart below provides quite a revelation.  If you bought whenever the commercials suddenly decreased their short position (adjusting for the overall downward trend) you would have consistently picked short term bottoms all the way up this gold bull market (geez I wish I'd known at the time!.. good for future reference).
cheers


----------



## explod

josjes said:


> I agree with this 'Conspiracy Theory'. Below please find the net positions of the commercials (the smart money) in the commitment of traders (COT) reports of gold and silver, The thick blue horizontal line is the zero line, the "smartos" have never been long since 2001, but without exception short - while gold has more than tripled and silver even quadrupled. To add insult to injury, particularly in gold you have permanent new short records, So the big "smartos" have been suffering staggering costs for many years, how is that possible ? The government don't want people to lose confidence in Fiat Money. For now I think is the situation similar 2003, late 2004, late 2005 and early 2006 when also new record shorts were set and yet the market partly corrected and partly continued to advance for months. They are trying with their inflated money to suppress POG as much as they can. Imagine when they are running out of the money printing presses ... Dooms Day scenario ??




This may be a silly question but I have been troubling over the following since reading these last posts.

1st.   In shorting gold does it mean that physical is being dumped onto the market.   Or is it against something that is supposed to exist; and 

2nd.   If the Fed reserve and US Govt get desperate could they enact a law to make physical ownership illegal, fix the price and take it in charge in exchange for thier fiat currency.

I think I read somewhere once where the latter had happened before in the US.    Dont' think anything like that would happen in Australia but I think the US collectively have the most physical so could theoretically keep up the manipulation.


----------



## cuttlefish

any attempt to artificially fix prices at a level lower than value/demand will result in a black market.  

there's some pretty interesting stuff here (I think it was ithatheekrat that originally led me to this wiki link).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_Agreement

It says that when the US Govt had the gold standard backing the $US in the 60's at $35/oz this caused them problems because gold was outflowing from the US to be sold on the free market for a higher price.  I don't quite understand this and will need to read it again.  (e.g. why wouldn't the free market buyers just buy from the US govt as well since the govt has a fixed conversion rate?).

As well as productivity, quite clearly fiat currencies can only exist if the rule of law applies and when the rule of law disintegrates/changes (e.g. war, govt takeover of property like occurred in communist takeover, etc.) then gold is the only thing left (or oil, tobacco, food or anything that has an intrinsic value) but gold is the easiest to cart around in terms of value/volume and also indestructable.  ( a kilo of gold is pretty small about 10cm*5cm*1cm if my memory serves correctly and there's also not much gold in the world in terms of volume).


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> This may be a silly question but I have been troubling over the following since reading these last posts.
> 
> 1st.   In shorting gold does it mean that physical is being dumped onto the market.   Or is it against something that is supposed to exist; and
> 
> 2nd.   If the Fed reserve and US Govt get desperate could they enact a law to make physical ownership illegal, fix the price and take it in charge in exchange for thier fiat currency.
> 
> I think I read somewhere once where the latter had happened before in the US.    Dont' think anything like that would happen in Australia but I think the US collectively have the most physical so could theoretically keep up the manipulation.




The shorting happens when say a miner due to produce an ounce next month sells the ounce today to lock in a certain price using an IOU one ounce of gold (selling futures contract)..   The act of selling impacts the spot price of gold immediately.. but the gold doesn't change hands immediately.. at first only the electronic contracts for delivery .  Later the mining company mines the ounce and delivers it at the price date and place on the contract.  In the meantime the miner would be said to have sold short gold because they sold it without yet delivering it..  
Central banks also issue IOUs for their gold in order to bash the gold price down, but unlike the miner, the central bank probably never intends to deliver the ounce of gold they have sold short.. I don't think anyone knows how they deal with it when the price then rises, but they probably just print fiat money to cover the financial loss they incur from their short position every day that the gold price rises.. in a futures acccount the gains and losses on the positions you bought or sold are accrued to your account daily as a cash balance.  With central banks in the end it must be you and me footing the bill for their losing shorts.  What makes me really angry is that the RBA shorts gold and has admitted it in writing!

I reckon the US will try and confiscate private gold eventually, Faber advised US citizens should have physical gold stored in two different countries.

I am getting more and more bullish here on the short term with this chart and its 24-hour rounding bottom.  I had to adjust the rounding bit as the day wore on but bought at 879 and will buy more if the rounding bottom is touched some more.  If the pattern is continued tonight I would say we are in for one hell of an upward rally for at least a couple of days..



josjes said:


> For now I think is the situation similar 2003, late 2004, late 2005 and early 2006 when also new record shorts were set and yet the market partly corrected and partly continued to advance for months.



I just noticed this point, it could happen again, the heavy short positions aren't a very reliable indicator of a final top in place. For now I am long and glued to the chart


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> The shorting happens when say a miner due to produce an ounce next month sells the ounce today to lock in a certain price using an IOU one ounce of gold (selling futures contract)..   The act of selling impacts the spot price of gold immediately.. but the gold doesn't change hands immediately.. at first only the electronic contracts for delivery .  Later the mining company mines the ounce and delivers it at the price date and place on the contract.  In the meantime the miner would be said to have sold short gold because they sold it without yet delivering it..
> Central banks also issue IOUs for their gold in order to bash the gold price down, but unlike the miner, the central bank probably never intends to deliver the ounce of gold they have sold short.. I don't think anyone knows how they deal with it when the price then rises, but they probably just print fiat money to cover the financial loss they incur from their short position every day that the gold price rises.. in a futures acccount the gains and losses on the positions you bought or sold are accrued to your account daily as a cash balance.  With central banks in the end it must be you and me footing the bill for their losing shorts.  What makes me really angry is that the RBA shorts gold and has admitted it in writing!
> 
> I reckon the US will try and confiscate private gold eventually, Faber advised US citizens should have physical gold stored in two different countries.
> 
> Thank you very much Barrett and Cuttlefish.   I have skirted the edges of the problem but this has shone the light.  Michael Panzer (Wall Street)also advises and alerts similar to Faber
> 
> Cheers


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> The shorting happens when say a miner due to produce an ounce next month sells the ounce today to lock in a certain price using an IOU one ounce of gold (selling futures contract)..   The act of selling impacts the spot price of gold immediately.. but the gold doesn't change hands immediately.. at first only the electronic contracts for delivery .  Later the mining company mines the ounce and delivers it at the price date and place on the contract.  In the meantime the miner would be said to have sold short gold because they sold it without yet delivering it..
> Central banks also issue IOUs for their gold in order to bash the gold price down, but unlike the miner, the central bank probably never intends to deliver the ounce of gold they have sold short.. I don't think anyone knows how they deal with it when the price then rises, but they probably just print fiat money to cover the financial loss they incur from their short position every day that the gold price rises.. in a futures acccount the gains and losses on the positions you bought or sold are accrued to your account daily as a cash balance.  With central banks in the end it must be you and me footing the bill for their losing shorts.  What makes me really angry is that the RBA shorts gold and has admitted it in writing!
> 
> I reckon the US will try and confiscate private gold eventually, Faber advised US citizens should have physical gold stored in two different countries.
> 
> Thank you very much Barrett and Cuttlefish.   I have skirted the edges of the problem but this has shone the light.  Michael Panzer (Wall Street)also advises and alerts similar to Faber
> 
> Cheers


----------



## josjes

Hi Barrett, keep us uptodate with the bullish/bearish breakout. So you are long for just these few days ?  Would be interested to know what's happening in the next few days, I am standing on the sideline for now.


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> This may be a silly question but I have been troubling over the following since reading these last posts.
> 
> 1st.   In shorting gold does it mean that physical is being dumped onto the market.   Or is it against something that is supposed to exist; and
> 
> 2nd.   If the Fed reserve and US Govt get desperate could they enact a law to make physical ownership illegal, fix the price and take it in charge in exchange for thier fiat currency.
> 
> I think I read somewhere once where the latter had happened before in the US.    Dont' think anything like that would happen in Australia but I think the US collectively have the most physical so could theoretically keep up the manipulation.




Yep, they have done it before and there are more and more signs that the US government are preparing to do the same again if needed be. 

Here is an interest article to read on this..

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1196605589.php

Remember, all these "regulations" and "actions" happened only for the last 2 years. So something fishy is going on. 

I hope it doesn't happen in Australia.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> I am getting more and more bullish here on the short term with this chart and its 24-hour rounding bottom. I had to adjust the rounding bit as the day wore on but bought at 879 and will buy more if the rounding bottom is touched some more. If the pattern is continued tonight I would say we are in for one hell of an upward rally for at least a couple of days..




Yes, something could be happening, not sure how strong it will be, but trying to break from the down channel may be? Bounced off 875 twice, found support @ 880 a few times, now establishing a weak up channel? Waiting....... (end of amateur TA pondering.... If only I had a canary )


----------



## barrett

josjes said:


> Hi Barrett, keep us uptodate with the bullish/bearish breakout. So you are long for just these few days ?  Would be interested to know what's happening in the next few days, I am standing on the sideline for now.




Will do, but with these rounding bottoms, they usually just run their course and then gradually either take off or fizzle out.  It's hard to pinpoint a breakout or breakdown.  As Uncle Festivus was saying though, it looks like we may have broken out of the downtrend at least.  But I would also be expecting any rally to be short term.

The very steep correction in the HUI these past two trading sessions suggests this isn't just a quick $40 correction and then on its merry way back up for gold.  If this rounding bottom does give us a decent relief rally I'll probably try and lighten up a bit on the metal and then start looking for entry points in those undervalued stocks if the correction continues.

Gartman has been pretty confused lately. Out at 891.. then back in at 900 after the little pullback from 917, expecting a run into the 900s as I did.. now holding but kind of wishing he hadn't put all his remaining money in at 900.  There seems to be a lot of confusion around at the moment.. that along with the other signals makes me think this week may have been a turning point in gold..  Interestingly, last week Faber predicted that.


----------



## Kauri

nothing is written in stone.. one possibility I see is if she makes her way sedately down to $850 that would be a=c and also a 50% ret of what looks to be W3 (may even be a W1 if the previous tri was an abcde). anyways, $850 would give it a tidy look.   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## barrett

The goldfish stayed in the bowl for quite a while.. and then some escaped over the sides..  looks like a $10 rally was all the rounding bottom could muster. 

Slim chance here of a double bottom at 875 and rally.. but I won't be trading it if it happens.  I'm out of the market (futures), for a few days at least.. I've been getting sloppy and need to take some time out to read Greg Welden's new book "gold trading boot camp" (anyone read it?) and firm up my strategy a bit before the next upleg.  
GLTA


----------



## Sean K

Watching the US markets and the high expectancy of at least a 50 basis point cut makes me think that we will need .75 for gold to rally again. Or, a more surprising 50 point cut before the official meeting. Or, Iran to blow up a US ship....


----------



## josjes

Technical chartist (Kauri, Barrett et al) where is the next support level ? It got through 869.8 briefly are we going to see 860 then 850 ?? Let us know, cause I am itching to get the bargain of the year


----------



## CamKawa

Temjin said:


> No, what he meant is that the prices of gold and silver are being MANIPULATED by very few "commercial" traders. These very few traders are solely responsible for keeping the precious metal prices down right now because if they weren't shorting, everyone else including the miners will be long, and I meant VERY net long. That would probably force the metal prices to shoot up to the moon.



+1

I think this may explain a bit of what's going on here. It doesn’t make sense to me that gold be slightly falling when the market is burning.


----------



## explod

I have noticed in the last 12 months that when stocks fall, particularly on Wall street, gold goes down with it for a few days.

Initially everyone wants out, then comes thinking time.  They ask "what is the alternatives? ah.. grasshopper, gold is a safe haven and it is looking oversold"

Support at US$870/75 has held the last few days.

Interesting night ahead.    Gold has regained weekly losses a number of times on Friday evenings.   We will see.


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> I have noticed in the last 12 months that when stocks fall, particularly on Wall street, gold goes down with it for a few days.
> 
> Initially everyone wants out, then comes thinking time. They ask "what is the alternatives? ah.. grasshopper, gold is a safe haven and it is looking oversold"



"THE stock market closed in the red for the tenth session in a row, the first time for more than 15 years..."
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23072076-5005961,00.html

The troops are a bit slow to wake up aren't they?


----------



## Temjin

CamKawa said:


> +1
> 
> I think this may explain a bit of what's going on here. It doesn’t make sense to me that gold be slightly falling when the market is burning.




I think people call it a "technical liquidation", that is when someone liquidate everything in their portfolio to meet margin calls, or have a need to raise cash urgently. And their portfolio probably include gold as well.

But could be something else. There are always the "boys" who are acting behind the scene to keep the prices down whenever they feel it is necessary.


----------



## barrett

josjes said:


> Technical chartist (Kauri, Barrett et al) where is the next support level ? It got through 869.8 briefly are we going to see 860 then 850 ?? Let us know, cause I am itching to get the bargain of the year




I know only a few chart patterns and just started EW, practicing.. 
Explod, since I'm on the sidelines there's probably a more than even chance of a rally tonight lol

As for the bottom of wave 4 (in the next week or so), Kauri's 50% Fib retracement at 850 seems likely.. my wave count last week would have had this recent top as wave 5, which ended sooner than I expected, but the proportions weren't right, Kauri's count of it as 3 makes more sense.  That would be more positive for the next month or so.. I guess a rally into the mid 900s would be conceivable after a near term dip to maybe 850?

Back on the very short term.. Hui already retraced 50% of its most recent rally, and the XAU about 58%.  A relief rally in it and in gold tonight wouldn't surprise..  If Hui starts to stabilise around 850 spot I might be coaxed back out from under my chair


----------



## barrett

Temjin said:


> I think people call it a "technical liquidation", that is when someone liquidate everything in their portfolio to meet margin calls, or have a need to raise cash urgently. And their portfolio probably include gold as well.
> 
> But could be something else. There are always the "boys" who are acting behind the scene to keep the prices down whenever they feel it is necessary.




Yeah, in a selloff people tend to liquidate the things that have gone down the least.  Pull out the flowers and leave the weeds, so to speak..

I am pretty sure that on Tuesday night when we double topped at 917 I saw some serious intervention happening live. A big seller entered the market right at the previous peak and began selling so relentlessly as to drive the price down $21 in a matter of 1 1/2 hours and create a convincing double top.  They were dumping in large market orders at about 30 second intervals, seemingly with no regard at all for what price they received for their gold.  In the middle of it all the selling stopped suddenly and completely for 17 minutes (morning tea at Goldman perhaps?) and then immediately re-started worse than ever for another hour or so.  I may be wrong, but given the way they were placing these orders I found it almost impossible to believe that this was a person acting on behalf of their own or their clients' interests..


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gone a bit quiet here lately. Here's a good read. Don't you just love those central banks, selling at the bottom. And now Britain has the same turkey in charge of the country who was responsible for selling (giving away?) a large chunk of their gold assets.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23073640-23850,00.html?from=public_rss


----------



## Sean K

From todays news wire:



> 1040 [Dow Jones] Spot gold higher, shrugs off impact from slightly stronger USD but profit taking clips gains, says HSBC's James Steel. Notes market focused on interest rate cuts by Fed, has at least 50 bps priced in, and pullback on official announcement could lead to profit taking. Gold, other precious metals may derive more support from an increase in investor risk aversion related to bond insurers; should bond insurers run into difficulty raising capital to fund obligations, including CDOs, problems in credit market may resurface, helping gold. Spot gold trades at $884.20/oz, up $3.70 vs last NY close.(EFB)
> 
> 1044 [Dow Jones] Spot gold steady, volatility could rise near term because of uncertainties in other financial markets, says Investec. But gold should benefit from flight-to-quality demand as stock market lags. Drop from last week's record high partly driven by selling from investors, funds to cover margin calls from losses in stock markets, amid fears of U.S. recession. U.S. markets shut Monday for Martin Luther King Jnr holiday. Spot gold up $1.05 at $881.55/oz. (EFB)



I'm even thinking that anything at or less that .50 point reduction will spell a significant sell off. .75 points and gold should go well through $900 again, and 1 point gold will shoot to $1000. (is that a ramp? )


(I'm still holding my key gold stocks through this turbulance [LGL and NCM] and have been tempted to add to positions with the US surely set to lower rates, as Helicopter Ben has intimated. Also holding for M&A potential.)


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> From todays news wire:
> 
> 
> I'm even thinking that anything at or less that .50 point reduction will spell a significant sell off. .75 points and gold should go well through $900 again, and 1 point gold will shoot to $1000. (is that a ramp? )
> 
> 
> (I'm still holding my key gold stocks through this turbulance [LGL and NCM] and have been tempted to add to positions with the US surely set to lower rates, as Helicopter Ben has intimated. Also holding for M&A potential.)




Well.. you have given a bit of preamble/qualification so we could pass that.

Notice NCM is one of the few gold stocks to rise.  In my view that will be new investment players moving in.  Also hear that outlets for physical are starting to run off their feet.

Was at Matthey's last week and had to sit and wait for service.

Draw your own conclusions


----------



## barrett

The XAU:gold ratio went below 0.2 again Friday night.  This is the most consistently reliable indicator in the gold sector that gold stocks are good value at the moment.  I like to see it go below 0.19.. but I'm usually too fussy for my own good.  So I reckon this is a fine time to top up on gold stocks, or start buying, especially the juniors (too many to mention but CRK, WEZ, DIO, CRE, OGD, etc, etc..) not recommending any of those per se, just examples of Aussie golds that have been hammered for no good reason while the gold price is going up.  Funnily enough if the stockmarket recovers that could be enough to pull these up even if the gold price corrects further.    On the rate cuts.. something has to be done about the US markets and the Bush 'package' did nothing.. that leaves it up to the Fed, who are undecided but given the parlous state of the markets my guess is a 0.5 cut.  If the market had a sharp intraday fall there could be an early announcement.  Even if not, some dovish language could tip the balance for gold.. remembering this is seasonal strength for gold so Asians (Chinese new year, Indian festival) will be buyers on dips.. I am still following Kauri's current wave count suggesting wave 5 is yet to come.. a possible run into the mid 900s perhaps, if not immediately.


----------



## Sean K

barrett said:


> So I reckon this is a fine time to top up on gold stocks, or start buying, especially the juniors (too many to mention but CRK, WEZ, DIO, CRE, OGD, etc, etc..) not recommending any of those per se, just examples of Aussie golds that have been hammered for no good reason while the gold price is going up.  Funnily enough if the stockmarket recovers that could be enough to pull these up even if the gold price corrects further.



I agree, that if there's a turn around and risk is back in style then the junior sector could outperform. Just depends on the risk appetite....Now, where's that turnaround??


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> The XAU:gold ratio went below 0.2 again Friday night.  This is the most consistently reliable indicator in the gold sector that gold stocks are good value at the moment.  I like to see it go below 0.19.. but I'm usually too fussy for my own good.  So I reckon this is a fine time to top up on gold stocks, or start buying, especially the juniors (too many to mention but CRK, WEZ, DIO, CRE, OGD, etc, etc..) not recommending any of those per se, just examples of Aussie golds that have been hammered for no good reason while the gold price is going up.  Funnily enough if the stockmarket recovers that could be enough to pull these up even if the gold price corrects further.    On the rate cuts.. something has to be done about the US markets and the Bush 'package' did nothing.. that leaves it up to the Fed, who are undecided but given the parlous state of the markets my guess is a 0.5 cut.  If the market had a sharp intraday fall there could be an early announcement.  Even if not, some dovish language could tip the balance for gold.. remembering this is seasonal strength for gold so Asians (Chinese new year, Indian festival) will be buyers on dips.. I am still following Kauri's current wave count suggesting wave 5 is yet to come.. a possible run into the mid 900s perhaps, if not immediately.




Yeh agree with your thrust but not all the picks.  I agree with DIO CRK AND OGC??? (you said OGD) but not the others yet.

Initially the mid caps that are or almost producing will be the best value.

Your ones above and  NEM, SBM, RSG, OXR, LGL and AVO.,  et.al.

The smaller caps will not attract the newcomers till a month or two into a larger uptick in my view.

The gold bugs have been fairly well loaded for some time so we have to put our minds to how newcomers will ease in.   From the top down, ie NCM etc..


----------



## barrett

Explod, I agree and yep I meant OGC.. only really meaning others as examples of small/mid caps that had been sold off and that I'm considering buying, I don't own most of those ones atm cept RSG, OGC

Kauri do you think it's likely the double bottom in on Friday was c for wave 4?  I don't mean to flog a dead horse but this rounding bottom seems to have reappeared, makes me wonder whether this is like the c in late nov.. an early finisher?..


----------



## Kauri

another little coily thing developed on the hourly chart...
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## CamKawa

I'm in two minds about the price. On one hand the price of oil looks like it's on the up but on the other maybe the central banks are keeping gold in the 870 - 890 range while the crisis is on.

I also have the concern that as soon as the market starts to recover the flight-to-quality factor that gold has becomes less important and the price will fall. Anyone have any comments on that?


----------



## josjes

Kauri said:


> another little coily thing developed on the hourly chart...
> Cheers
> .......Kauri



It just broke that sym. triangle (877 now), so the next support is 860, correct ?


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> I'm in two minds about the price. On one hand the price of oil looks like it's on the up but on the other maybe the central banks are keeping gold in the 870 - 890 range while the crisis is on.
> 
> I also have the concern that as soon as the market starts to recover the flight-to-quality factor that gold has becomes less important and the price will fall. Anyone have any comments on that?




Yep, generally the markets will not recover.  I look at 2008 as 1929 and the markets kept going down for 3 years.  Financial mess appears even worse this time.

Dont' worry about gold, it will be soon seen as the only store of wealth at all because money has lost its value as it is backed by debt.


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Dont' worry about gold, it will be soon seen as the only store of wealth at all because money has lost its value as it is backed by debt.



I hope you a right.


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> I hope you a right.





Dont' take my word for it.  Check out "Financial Armageddon" Michael Panzer, Kaplan Publishing, 2007; and  "Conquer The Crash"  Robert Prechter Jr. Wiley, 2002.  In fact the latter called it a few years early but on how it has played out he has been spot on.

If you cannot be bothered checking out the texts (but the discerning investor should, and I have no association with publishers etc.) check the website.  <www.financialarmageddon.com>   from there you will find others.

Everyone, do yourselves a favour and be informed.


----------



## CamKawa

Anyone here buy any gold over the last couple of days? What were your reasons?


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Yep, generally the markets will not recover.  I look at 2008 as 1929 and the markets kept going down for 3 years.  Financial mess appears even worse this time.



I’m all for the price of gold going up but we haven't even hit a technical bear market yet, so I think this is a big call.

Thanks for the book referral.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The meltdown continues tonight with index futures down again & gold is not immune from the contagion, currently down to $872. My golds got smashed today in the fallout. Only redeeming factor is the Aussie dollar is tanking as well keeping Aus gold above $1k . Deja vu?


----------



## barrett

CamKawa said:


> I'm in two minds about the price. On one hand the price of oil looks like it's on the up but on the other maybe the central banks are keeping gold in the 870 - 890 range while the crisis is on.
> 
> I also have the concern that as soon as the market starts to recover the flight-to-quality factor that gold has becomes less important and the price will fall. Anyone have any comments on that?




re the stockmarket, gold doesn't mind much what it does.. sometimes they move in tandem like now, but the link isn't causative.  

What really drives gold bull markets is 
_accelerating consumer price inflation, 
combined with
falling or declining interest rates, or other form of acceleration in money supply.  _ 

Under these conditions the increased money supply aggravates the consumer price inflation problem and gold is one of the only assets that benefits.

So gold will perform better the harder the Fed cuts rates because of the credit crisis.  

On the inflation front, outgoing Chicago Fed head Michael Moskow made a very interesting comment soon before he retired early last year.. I have tried to retrieve the article several times but I can't.. he said the best single forward predictor of the US CPI is the price of wheat, with about a 12-18 month lead time..

CBOT Wheat, 2006-07


----------



## MS+Tradesim

What's with POG? Kitco has it down 11% tonite.


----------



## numbercruncher

My prediction on Gold in this thread a few pages back was that it wasnt going down unless everything else was coming with it, seems everything is coming with it !


----------



## Real1ty

With oil off about 2% and the $ firming theres been selling pressure on Gold for hours now.

I shorted it @ 877.30 but got out a bit too early, needed more guts, but a profit is a profit.

It's bounced now from a bottom of around 867 and is currently at 872.


----------



## barrett

There goes my rounding bottom theory lol :flush: whoosh..
 c looking like a classic impulse wave unfolding.. so far.. 
Kauri's a=c sounding good, target ~850 if it can break through 38.2 fibo at 864.50

speaking of Herald Sun articles, just saw this one..
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23063707-662,00.html
"Business at Australia's "gold bank", the Perth Mint, has jumped by about 50 per cent in the past six months. "  
"Manager Cathy Anza said 75 per cent of sales in the past month have been to first-time investors. "  ...these figures always come out afterwards!   I guess the new passengers have to have their trial by fire.  

Curiously, Gartman reports that some substantial ETF drawdowns occurred last week..  Nearly 23tonnes of gold came out of GLD ETF alone.   Gartman remains very long because gold is still holding up well in terms of many currencies other than $US.. so far holding E600, A1000, C900 levels


----------



## BREND

Real1ty said:


> With oil off about 2% and the $ firming theres been selling pressure on Gold for hours now.
> 
> I shorted it @ 877.30 but got out a bit too early, needed more guts, but a profit is a profit.
> 
> It's bounced now from a bottom of around 867 and is currently at 872.




I also intend to short gold, already shorted Comex silver at US$15.89, now is US$15.65.


----------



## explod

MS+Tradesim said:


> What's with POG? Kitco has it down 11% tonite.




Yeb, it worked in well with the s/m drop and the us holiday.  Last Thanksgiving (and the one where the kids wear hats) on Mondays they dropped it too.     De seppo PPT having a good time and will now buy into selling up till Wed., then we will see.

Could get to as low as $US840 alright.


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> So gold will perform better the harder the Fed cuts rates because of the credit crisis.



If our bearded friend does cut rates by .5% how much would you expect gold to rise and in what time frame?


----------



## bean

CamKawa said:


> If our bearded friend does cut rates by .5% how much would you expect gold to rise and in what time frame?





Yes the bearded one...the one which the market has no confidence in.
He has between now and when the US markets open to pull a rabbit out of his hat...He needs a minimum .75% if not 1% between now and the opening he will and can't wait till the next FED meeting at the end of the month.

Time frame of rise in POG on that sort of rate cut most likely should be instant.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> He needs a minimum .75% if not 1% between now and the opening he will and can't wait till the next FED meeting at the end of the month.
> 
> Time frame of rise in POG on that sort of rate cut most likely should be instant.



I agree. .5 is factored in I reckon. It will depend on what he says also. If he's along the lines of continuing to lower rates then POG will likely head back to all time highs. If opposite, we might get your 540 bean


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm expecting Japanese style deflation in the US so anything less than zero % interest rates will be a disappointment, and the consequences on the $US, & then the gold price to react accordingly. The Yen carry trade is unwinding at an parabolic rate lately so it will be a market of he who has the less worse currency and economy to back it.

Human emotion is a funny thing, aus gold still at $1k yet goldies getting smacked around as well. Time for an entry in the OXR for the gold portfolio? Down 13% bottomed at 262.


----------



## Kauri

those little coily things often signify a 4th wave.. although I wouldnae try to fit a count on this... If it is a 4th wave then we are possibly still in WaveA of the correction??? Regardless... the trend is currently down and that is all that counts, so to speak...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## cuttlefish

imo it seems unlikely that longer term gold price bull run is about to come to an end - its pretty rare for a significant index/market to broach new highs and then beat a full retreat. Once old historical highs are broached, they are usually smashed through  at some stage - though whether thats next month or next year is another matter.


----------



## Sean K

cuttlefish said:


> imo it seems unlikely that longer term gold price bull run is about to come to an end - its pretty rare for a significant index/market to broach new highs and then beat a full retreat. Once old historical highs are broached, they are usually smashed through  at some stage - though whether thats next month or next year is another matter.



If Bearded Ben doesn't lower rates at least 50 points it could be a very significant sell off...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like support has been tested and held at 855 for the moment. Will it range or break? US dollar dead cat bounce has run it's course (again!)?

The Uncle Ben's helicopter will be re-fueled mid air as there is much money to be distributed to the needy hedge funds, banks & brokers - 50 bps minimum is a certainty. Although, gold appears to be less & less inclined to be influenced by interest rates or the dollar - getting more "unhinged" so maybe start to trade on fear by itself.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Interesting correlation between gold & oil. Either gold will match oil's volatility in percentage terms or the gold oil ratio will get back to historic value (around 16?), currently 9.7, meaning an oil price in the mid 50's?


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looks like support has been tested and held at 855 for the moment. Will it range or break? US dollar dead cat bounce has run it's course (again!)?
> 
> The Uncle Ben's helicopter will be re-fueled mid air as there is much money to be distributed to the needy hedge funds, banks & brokers - 50 bps minimum is a certainty. Although, gold appears to be less & less inclined to be influenced by interest rates or the dollar - getting more "unhinged" so maybe start to trade on fear by itself.



That H&S mixed up in there with the support at 870 gives me a target of 830.


----------



## barrett

In the past hour or so the US S&P went limit down, 70 points or 5.3%.. trading has been halted until just before the opening bell on NYSE.  When the NYSE opens, the limit on the S&P futures will double, and if the Industrials fall 10% I believe the market closes for an hour. 

There's also talk of simultaneous rate cuts from multiple central banks... so it'll be an interesting night!

According to Bloomberg CBOT futures are now pricing in a 75% chance of a 75bp rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50bp rate cut.  I doubt Bernanke would want to disappoint the market now.. I would be absolutely amazed if he doesn't act today.  Aside from inviting a US crash the Eur Stoxx50 is at a critical technical support level.. 

I'm not sure I have the guts to buy gold futures in this market.  My trade would be at the whim of a few central bankers, their timing, etc.. they may even co-ordinate gold sales to go along with the rate cuts.. who knows!  I should have entered at 850 as planned but I'm still watching from the sidelines after getting out at 880.  
GLTA
barrett


----------



## josjes

barrett said:


> In the past hour or so the US S&P went limit down, 70 points or 5.3%.. trading has been halted until just before the opening bell on NYSE.  When the NYSE opens, the limit on the S&P futures will double, and if the Industrials fall 10% I believe the market closes for an hour.
> 
> There's also talk of simultaneous rate cuts from multiple central banks... so it'll be an interesting night!
> 
> According to Bloomberg CBOT futures are now pricing in a 75% chance of a 75bp rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50bp rate cut.  I doubt Bernanke would want to disappoint the market now.. I would be absolutely amazed if he doesn't act today.  Aside from inviting a US crash the Eur Stoxx50 is at a critical technical support level..
> 
> I'm not sure I have the guts to buy gold futures in this market.  My trade would be at the whim of a few central bankers, their timing, etc.. they may even co-ordinate gold sales to go along with the rate cuts.. who knows!  I should have entered at 850 as planned but I'm still watching from the sidelines after getting out at 880.
> GLTA
> barrett




Gold touched 849 briefly this arvo, but quickly rebound to 860. (Probabaly on those rumours you mentioned ? ) I think, it will be hard for gold to get back to 830 this week, unless as you said Ben doesn't act as market demands, and let Dow slide to oblivion to 11000 and beyond.  I am quite optimistic of gold getting back to 900 and above sometime next week if not sooner.


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looks like support has been tested and held at 855 for the moment. Will it range or break? US dollar dead cat bounce has run it's course (again!)?




Might end up being more than a dead cat bounce this time


----------



## cuttlefish

thanks Benny banker, hope this keeps up throughout the US day.


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Might end up being more than a dead cat bounce this time




Yeh..  is this the turnaround?


----------



## Kauri

scruffy looking abc,... but I'll take it until something better comes along...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Sheesh, nice work on that 850 target Kauri!  From a few days out too..

big inverse head and shoulders.. on the 5-min chart (below).. would suggest bottom is in.. at least for right now, that could change if it falls below the neckline at 867.  If it holds above 867.. that looks likely just now..an initial target of 884 is likely.

Hard to conclusively call a turnaround esp with the H&S not very clear on the hourly, but clearly this rate cut is fundamentally bang on the money for gold..


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> Sheesh, nice work on that 850 target Kauri! From a few days out too..
> 
> big inverse head and shoulders.. on the 5-min chart (below).. would suggest bottom is in.. at least for right now, that could change if it falls below the neckline at 867. If it holds above 867.. that looks likely just now..an initial target of 884 is likely.
> 
> Hard to conclusively call a turnaround esp with the H&S not very clear on the hourly, but clearly this rate cut is fundamentally bang on the money for gold..




Beware of any possible US margin calls if the SP drops... in tomorrows papers one Aus mob reporting 800 compared to 20-30 on a normal day. Selling gold/oil to pay them possibly... or not...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

Well that's what the bugs think of the rate cut.  No big drop on the $US yet but look out below soon I suspect.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Well that's what the bugs think of the rate cut.



 Nice woody. 

I failed to top up on my gold stocks yesterday as I said I would, out of fear. Be interesting to see how gold stocks perform. Follow market, or follow gold...


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Nice woody.
> 
> I failed to top up on my gold stocks yesterday as I said I would, out of fear. Be interesting to see how gold stocks perform. Follow market, or follow gold...




I've been burnt to the tune of 10% as of last night on my gold stocks.  Managed to buy more OXR yesterday so that will help.   But my Bullion is up more than 10% since October and it is 30% larger than my trading portfolio which has been a good buffer.

Realising the value of spread overall.    Aussie gold price $1020 this am so that also should give a good lift.

Feel sure you will find plenty of opportunities in gold stocks.  Some very good ones very oversold and I feel after the rout of the last few days there will be some tentative heads for a few days.

Cheers explod


----------



## CamKawa

At +33.05 the POG looks good to me. 

Now will the POG get support here or will the other peasant stocks bring it down?


----------



## barrett

Gold sure put in a great performance.. massive reversal day, retraced >62% of last week's drop, gold indices confirming strongly, silver confirming..  I guess this makes more of an argument for this rally being 1 (of 5).. rather than b?


----------



## Nicks

kennas said:


> Nice woody.
> 
> I failed to top up on my gold stocks yesterday as I said I would, out of fear. Be interesting to see how gold stocks perform. Follow market, or follow gold...




Follow gold, not market.

The Fed will no doubt cut rates again next week, which will be another boost toward upside for gold if this occurs. Volatility is also very good for gold. The only reason it dropped a bit at all was b/c people were selling it to get themselves out of trouble they were in with from the market.

A good solid gold stock with strong gain potential and real fundamentals based on POG and reserves is AVO imo. Thanks to yesterday this is at a great buying price point imo. Just look at its reserves and the POG, at this share price this looks incredibly good value - eventually fundamentals will kick in and this will realise its full value.


----------



## josjes

explod said:


> I've been burnt to the tune of 10% as of last night on my gold stocks.  Managed to buy more OXR yesterday so that will help.   But my Bullion is up more than 10% since October and it is 30% larger than my trading portfolio which has been a good buffer.
> 
> Realising the value of spread overall.    Aussie gold price $1020 this am so that also should give a good lift.
> 
> Feel sure you will find plenty of opportunities in gold stocks.  Some very good ones very oversold and I feel after the rout of the last few days there will be some tentative heads for a few days.
> 
> Cheers explod



Yeah me too, fail to top-up yesterday. Do you see SBM go down to 62c yesterday to be up to 75 this morning ? 
I bought them a day too early at 75. Oh well... lesson learned.


----------



## explod

josjes said:


> Yeah me too, fail to top-up yesterday. Do you see SBM go down to 62c yesterday to be up to 75 this morning ?
> I bought them a day too early at 75. Oh well... lesson learned.




An error with my bullion uptick, is 20% since October which is good.  Today is great but maybe a very small beginning...

this bloke explains why he believes gold should go to $10,000 an ounce.

<www.kitco.com/ind/Dillon/jan172008.html>


----------



## Nicks

Thanks explod that made for very good reading. If you take a very conservative view in what he is saying, its still very good news for the price of gold. 

If half of what is in that document occurs then gold will still soar to enormous heights (are we seeing the beginning of some of this already??). 

I think having a gold stock in your portfolio makes very good sense at the moment. It is a good stabiliser and hedge. Makes for a balanced and diverse portfolio financially.


----------



## Kauri

my long strides are off... as a precaution... against a long squeeze.. on the back of margin calls possibly materialising...    plenty of time to rejoin the fray when/if I am wrong (had masses of practise at that.    )
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> my long strides are off... as a precaution... against a long squeeze.. on the back of margin calls possibly materialising...    plenty of time to rejoin the fray when/if I am wrong (had masses of practise at that.    )
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Kauri, just trying to nut out your box advance/regress.  If we have a break above say 890 then would 886 become the new "C", if that's the case then I have it, if not can you put me onto a read to pick it up.

cheers explod


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Kauri, just trying to nut out your box advance/regress.  If we have a break above say 890 then would 886 become the new "C", if that's the case then I have it, if not can you put me onto a read to pick it up.
> 
> cheers explod





Struth, just found your new thread on current subject.   The intellectual ESP is working a treat but as usual; allways 2 and half steps behind.


----------



## Kauri

one of those little fluttery things... but it is meant (usually) to break to the topsides...   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## barrett

I haven't seen this pattern come up very often (white wedge below on hourly chart).. triangular now but still considered a bullish flag, isn't it?

There is the possibility here... imo supported by the fundamentals (rate cut, bond insurer bailout meeting).... of a big inverse head and shoulders tracing out over the past 6 trading days - neckline and shoulderline in pink..

If that pattern is confirmed it would be very bullish, target 930+ within the next week.

To play that move I guess a pullback to 882 area would be an ideal entry point.. if not, an hourly close above white resistance at 892 would be bullish..  if 900 is broken within the next day or so that would seem to confirm the H&S..  Nothing is certain, but this bullish pattern would seem consistent with the Fed spraying the walls with money as they are..


----------



## AnDy62

I'm pretty new to trading. I have had Newmont for years for very little gain, and bought Lihir last year. But with both, I've missed out on the gains in the POG . Do people think buying the bullion would be a better bet if one is bullish on gold?


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> If that pattern is confirmed it would be very bullish, target 930+ within the next week.



If you could arrange that for me that would be nice. 

What doesn't make sense to me is that the price of gold is up 4 dollars today yet the price of GOLD and NCM is going down. What do you think?


----------



## Kauri

not a good looking coily thing... but may beer watching..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Thanks Kauri, didn't realise that one was venomous.. hopefully not fatally.. unless the hourly closes below 869 and that would throw my last chart out the window.  This one hard to trade either way, I'm out right now and watching



AnDy62 said:


> I'm pretty new to trading. I have had Newmont for years for very little gain, and bought Lihir last year. But with both, I've missed out on the gains in the POG . Do people think buying the bullion would be a better bet if one is bullish on gold?




The stocks have been a bit disappointing.. have heard reports of some gold investors switching from stocks fully into bullion. I think it would be a mistake especially with the XAU gold stock index at 0.19X the gold price.. through bull and bear the past 30 years or so this level has been an excellent time to start topping up on gold stocks.  The stocks on average over time leverage gold 3:1.. so they have a lot of catching up to do even if gold were to pull back a bit.  Lihir had earnings of around 50M last year.. next year by my back of the envelope calculation cash flow should be well into the hundreds of millions.. with so many disappointments from gold stocks in recent years I guess the market just won't believe it until it's announced.  Same goes for Newmont, whose cash costs aren't as well controlled as Lihir but with no hedging even they probably won't be able to escape a big jump in profits..



CamKawa said:


> If you could arrange that for me that would be nice.
> 
> What doesn't make sense to me is that the price of gold is up 4 dollars today yet the price of GOLD and NCM is going down. What do you think?




..hang on i'll just phone the broker and place a market order for 100,000 April gold, that should do it:
GOLD, NCM probably flat/down cos $A gold price is flat/down past 24 hrs.. bullionvault.com chart gives live streaming gold price in multi currencies


----------



## CamKawa

AnDy62 said:


> I'm pretty new to trading. I have had Newmont for years for very little gain, and bought Lihir last year. But with both, I've missed out on the gains in the POG . Do people think buying the bullion would be a better bet if one is bullish on gold?




From my limited trading experience I reckon the price of the ASX code GOLD seems to move more slowly than the price of any of the gold miners both up and down. It may be a case that if there's a big fluctuation in the price of gold (POG) then GOLD will move maybe .5.- 2.5% whereas the miners, like NCM, LGL, AVO etc, will move much more in the given direction. So which method of investing gold you choose depends on what sort of investor you are.


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> GOLD, NCM probably flat/down cos $A gold price is flat/down past 24 hrs.. bullionvault.com chart gives live streaming gold price in multi currencies



I can get similar info from kitco.com and you are right, with the exchange rate taken into consideration gold is in the red. Thanks for your help.


----------



## refined silver

CamKawa said:


> If you could arrange that for me that would be nice.
> 
> What doesn't make sense to me is that the price of gold is up 4 dollars today yet the price of GOLD and NCM is going down. What do you think?




NCM still have hedging issues like many others, but its purposely hidden. Usually disguised as increasing costs at the mine, as Newcrest just announced at Telfer. Even though they raised $2b to close out the hedges, they said it's "underway" with more news in their half year results.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23100754-643,00.html

That means the last 2 months $200 rise in gold has cost them BIG dollars.


----------



## numbercruncher

Gotta love gold as a store of value ....




> As an example, he says, "If in January of 2007 you had $637.50 to buy an ounce of gold, you could have bought 1 ounce of gold, or 267 gallons of gas. With that same $637.50 today, you could only buy about three-quarters of an ounce of gold, or 205 gallons of gas."
> 
> So why doesn't the price of gold matter? He explains, "If you were using gold as your standard, you'll discover that you can buy about the same amount of gas (actually, a little more) with the same ounce of gold you had on January 1", thus effortlessly demonstrating gold's "store of value" as it preserves buying power!




http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG012108.html


----------



## cuttlefish

lol Looking forward to the day when traded goods (including USD) have a default pricing in Oz.

The greenback dropped against gold today, now trading at 1.12 milli Oz.  The AUD is up to .975 milli Oz today.


BHP is up .76 milli Oz today on strong copper price which rose to 3.86 milli Oz in london trade overnight.


A schooner thanks ... that'll be 4.50 milli Oz cheers mate.  Oh I've only got dollars do you take those?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri said:


> not a good looking coily thing... but may beer watching..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Is not your coily thing a good thing, in that it represents a bullish continuation pattern, ascending triangle?


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Is not your coily thing a good thing, in that it represents a bullish continuation pattern, ascending triangle?




 yep... it's just a visual thing wid me, it just doesn't look right.... however that may just be because of the way I am seeing my vinocators... note that I am wrong more often than I an right... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Is not your coily thing a good thing, in that it represents a bullish continuation pattern, ascending triangle?




It must be, because the strength of silver tonight indicates an uptick for gold may be in the offing.  Just waiting for the US$ index, which is teetering, to show a drop and confirm.

We will see what plays out.  I make no actual predictions cause of unqualification.


----------



## explod

And we are off and racing


----------



## Whiskers

There goes 900 again.

Should be a bonza day here tomorrow!

EDIT: You piped me at the post explod.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> It must be, because the strength of silver tonight indicates an uptick for gold may be in the offing. Just waiting for the US$ index, which is teetering, to show a drop and confirm.
> 
> We will see what plays out. I make no actual predictions cause of unqualification.




and I make predictions* because of* unqualification.  . and also to learn.. enjoy the coily..   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## rederob

Kauri said:


> and I make predictions* because of* unqualification.  . and also to learn.. enjoy the coily..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



I am qualified to make predictions that are unqualified.
I had a chart that said gold would rise, and it did.
Another said it would fall, and it did.
Based on this 100% success rate, gold will now rise.
Just checked the ticker, and indeed it did.
I therefore now predict a fall.
Wait.....
Wait......
There, it fell.

Trust me, gold will again rise.
Although I suspect $1000 next year will be achieved in a canter, the actions of the Fed to prop up the US economy will debase the greenback to oblivion faster than I thought.  I therefore am setting a $1150 target fo the second half of 2008, with a subsequent retrace to low $900s into 2009.

....onya bike, ducati?


----------



## Kauri

rederob said:


> I am qualified to make predictions that are unqualified.
> I had a chart that said gold would rise, and it did.
> Another said it would fall, and it did.
> Based on this 100% success rate, gold will now rise.
> Just checked the ticker, and indeed it did.
> I therefore now predict a fall.
> Wait.....
> Wait......
> There, it fell.
> 
> Trust me, gold will again rise.
> Although I suspect $1000 next year will be achieved in a canter, the actions of the Fed to prop up the US economy will debase the greenback to oblivion faster than I thought. I therefore am setting a $1150 target fo the second half of 2008, with a subsequent retrace to low $900s into 2009.
> 
> ....onya bike, ducati?



and tonight... when the U.S figures come out a tad better than forecast??
I thunk.. 
poltroon   
Cheering ....
..................Karlu


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> and I make predictions* because of* unqualification.  . and also to learn.. enjoy the coily..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




That's very good Kauri, looks like you got everyone to crawl back into thier litle coily with that one.

Anyhow, just wanted to give another blast on datrumpet cause Big Chief Burnin Bush is sendin gold to da moon,  soooaaaah..... wees all saved.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> That's very good Kauri, looks like you got everyone to crawl back into thier litle coily with that one.
> 
> Anyhow, just wanted to give another blast on datrumpet *cause Big Chief Burnin Bush is sendin gold to da moon,* soooaaaah..... wees all saved.





*Rumours* of  the White House setting up a deal on stimulation texas style..some talk has been circulating of a global stimulus deal with *talk *that Pres. Bush has been discussing such a move with European counterparts, who are dissatisfied with the intransigence by the ECB on rates. 
Thinking
...........Kauri


----------



## bvbfan

NCM is now unhedged.

As for gold stocks here, the choice is limited.

SBM, AVO, TRY, SGX seem to stand out at the moment.

Next line down maybe ones like IGR, GDR, DIO, MON, ATV.

Depends on what sort of production profile you want and location to


----------



## CamKawa

POG is at 913, +22 bucks. I can feel a new record coming on. Drum roll please................


----------



## barrett

picked up 2 contracts at 899 last night on the pullback to the pink H&S shoulderline after the breakout.. 

picked up another 2 at 908 just now on the lower boundary of the 'golden channel' below on the 5-min..

the big inverted H&S should -in theory- have enough firepower to get us through the old highs and to ~930 initial.. barring double top sellers coming in too fiercely at the old high

Between the Fed hosing the streets with cash, and whatever plan Bush might be cooking up.. our friends across the Atlantic won't be able to drive around for all the paper. They'll have to pick it up and buy something with it.. hopefully something shiny


----------



## Whiskers

I do believe we have a new high... broken USD920


----------



## refined silver

Ouch! Not good news for the poor gold shorts.

JOHANNESBURG – Reuters – 8.15GMT - January 25 

South Africa's three top gold producers suspended production at all their mines in the country owing to a power shortage that the government on Friday termed "a national emergency". AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, and Harmony said they had stopped all gold mining after they were informed by state-owned power utility Eskom that it could not guarantee power supply to their operations. Shares in the companies fell sharply and gold hit a record high of $919.80 an ounce after the news at 8.15GMT.


----------



## refined silver

bvbfan said:


> NCM is now unhedged.




Not yet they ain't, even according to their own news blast. They are "in the process" of closing out hedges. Re-read what was said.


----------



## numbercruncher

refined silver said:


> Ouch! Not good news for the poor gold shorts.
> 
> JOHANNESBURG – Reuters – 8.15GMT - January 25
> 
> South Africa's three top gold producers suspended production at all their mines in the country owing to a power shortage that the government on Friday termed "a national emergency". .





Hmmm power shortages seem to be becoming a big big Issue atm, China has less than 1 week worth of Coal on hand I read ....

No power/energy no business


----------



## Kauri

gold may be rolling over.. maybe briefly... by my vinocators anyways..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

yes.. was hoping for a consolidation above previous 914 high before a move higher.. wasn't to be.. took profits on 2 contracts at 914 soon after breakdown.. still holding 2, looking for bounce off 903-904 short term target..   I guess it is unreasonable to expect gold to keep moving at the recent pace.. but to stay short term bullish I'm looking for 900 to hold at least

A couple of things disturb me as a long.. firstly, the 930 target wasn't reached.. secondly the move since 850 seemed to unfold in three steps, and with the character of a bear market rally (wave b?).. and thirdly the gold stock indices looking especially nasty so far tonight..

.. long and waiting to see how 900 area is handled, if we get there


----------



## CamKawa

Looks like the DOW will close down this morning -1.38% (god help XAO) on the fear that Fed my not drop rates at all or it will only be 25 pts and not 50  I suppose if the markets hold over the next few days why would the Fed come out and drop them further. A rate cut can take many months for the flow on effect to take place.

This is bummer for POG as I'm sure we all have fond memories of what happened after the surprise 75 pt cut. There's also some speculation out there that the POG has risen off the fear that some people don't trust banks anymore after the 8 billion dollar bandit news broke. Imagine what the POG would do if there was a run on one and I'm not ruling that out further down the track.

The stellar rise of gold of late has been offset locally somewhat by the rise in the USD. Ahhhh. What's a man gotta do?


----------



## Sean K

I think POG has factored in .25 points, but not .50. Just my perception. 

Depending on the comments, steady as she goes with the .25 cut, but no cut, and there'll be some profit taking. 

Of course, there's other factors that effect POG including any oil shocks, and geopolitical tension, so it's not ALL on the Fed's action at this point. Still time for 1/26 this weekend.... 

Has POG risen on USD strength? Against the tide if it has. Unusual for the present cimate.


----------



## CamKawa

kennas said:


> Has POG risen on USD strength?



No it hasn't. What has happened is say hypothetically the POG rose .25% and so did the USD, then the POG in AUD terms is a nil all draw. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> No it hasn't. What has happened is say hypothetically the POG rose .25% and so did the USD, then the POG in AUD terms is a nil all draw. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.




You are both right so to speak.

The big issue is time frames.   If you are a short term trader then you would be concerned with these ambiences.

Unless you are very t/a savvy I think the type of volatilitiy due to new factors of impending fianancial problems can be disastrous.

The gold bull is raging and strong as a longer time frame proposition.  It is now more and more referred to in the daily press as a store of wealth and a hedge against the woes and risks in the general market.

An analyst pointed out last week that the gold component of the investment market is a mere .005%.   Can you imagine the parabolic rise in the gold price if this moved to say .05%, or further to an unimaginable 1%.

I think the short term stuff is great for learning the creative ideas and analysis of Kauri and others, but a waste of time for the safe approach of the ordinary investor.

I am not by the way a gold bug.  I am only interested in growing my portfolio as safely and quickly as possible.  To that end I indentified gold a few years ago as the best vehicle in the current climate to achieve that.   The many reasons for that conclusion are all over this thread.  It may seem a large task but newcomers will find a read of the full thread a valuable exercise.


----------



## explod

The "Real" Gold Price

Now that gold has climbed above the $850 high reached back in January 1980, many are proclaiming that gold is at a new ‘record’. That’s true of course when gold’s exchange rate to the dollar is viewed in terms of nominal dollars, but nominal dollars provide a distorted picture.

After all, everyone knows that because of inflation a dollar today purchases much less than it did twenty-eight years ago, so clearly, $850 today does not have the purchasing power it did back then. The question therefore arises, what price does gold have to reach in inflation adjusted dollars to equal the purchasing power of eight hundred fifty 1980-dollars?

The answer to this question depends upon which Consumer Price Index is used to calculate the inflation adjusted gold price. The two alternatives are the US government’s CPI or the CPI provided by John Williams of www.ShadowStats.com.  

These two different CPI measures provide very different inflation adjusted gold prices.  So which CPI should we use?

The ShadowStats CPI eliminates the changes made by the US government since the early 1980s to its own CPI measure. In other words, the ShadowsStats CPI is the same one the US government used to calculate inflation while Jimmy Carter was president.  

The changes made by the government to its CPI were clearly introduced to lessen reported CPI inflation. A lower inflation rate reduces the cost-of-living increases the US government makes to welfare and Social Security recipients, thereby reducing its budget deficit.  Welfare and Social Security recipients suffer the consequences. Their purchasing power is reduced because the payments they receive do not keep up with the real rate of inflation.

An example will be useful to illustrate this loss of purchasing power.  Let’s assume that a recipient received $850 per month from the US government in January 1980.  Using the US government’s CPI, that recipient is today receiving $2,310. However, if the US government had not made any changes to the way it calculates CPI, the recipient would today be receiving $6,255. This difference can be seen in the following chart, which presents the January $850 gold price adjusted for inflation using both CPI’s.






There are a couple of important conclusions from the above chart.  First, gold at its present price of $900 today is still very cheap.  In other words, it is a long way from the purchasing power an ounce of gold achieved in January 1980.Second, both measures on the above chart show that the dollar is losing purchasing power every month.  So if gold in the future were to reach a $6,255 price, the inflation between now and then would require gold to reach an even higher price to equal the purchasing power it had in January 1980.  

Rather than reduce inflation, the US government instead shot the messenger. By fiddling with the CPI, the US government wants us to believe that inflation is not as bad as it really is, which is the same strategy it has pursued with the other important inflation messenger – gold. Government interventions to cap the gold price prevent the gold barometer from alerting everyone that inflation is a growing menace.

To conclude, even though gold is trading at a record high in terms of nominal dollars, the real gold price is far below the old January 1980 record when adjusted for inflation.  Gold is still good value, and more importantly, government interventions have kept gold cheap, thus enabling us to buy it at prices far less than would be the case if the government wasn’t intervening.  Therefore, continue to spend overvalued dollars to accumulate undervalued gold.

*****

by James Turk 
Copyright  © 2007 by James Turk.  All rights reserved.

James Turk is the Founder & Chairman of GoldMoney.com http://goldmoney.com/. He is the co-author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar www.dollarcollapse.com.


----------



## Sean K

This is up Bean's ally:


from Jim Sinclair site:

Posted On: Friday, January 25, 2008, 6:36:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Dan Norcini


Dear Friends,

The following comments are included on the weekly COT charts that I regularly send your way although I wanted to call your attention to something that was rather interesting this past week which occurred over the reporting period from Wednesday of last week thru Tuesday of this week.

Over the reporting period for this past week's COT data, gold dropped as much as $50 before it moved higher during that wild ride it took on Monday of this week. That was one of the wildest days we have seen in the gold market in a long, long time.

Yet in spite of a $50 plunge, the speculative community did relatively little as far as liquidation goes. The funds only dropped about 6000 longs while they added some 1050 shorts. The small specs were even more daring - they added new longs and new shorts doing no liquidation overall. That, coming on the heels of a $50 plunge in the gold price is nothing short of astonishing! 

It should be noted that the spreaders dropped 15,500 of their positions ? a fairly sizeable reduction by any standard of historical comparison.

The liquidation came from the commercial category with both the long commercials and short commercials (the bullion banks) doing significant liquidation. The longs shed 20,000 of their positions while the bullion banks wasted no time covering a massive 28,000 shorts! And one wonders why the price of gold hit new highs this week. They simply could not push it lower because the specs refused to run! Apparently, the bullion banks ran into a wall of buying down near the $850 level in gold that was simply too much for them and they began covering at a frantic pace. That no doubt caught the attention of some of the spec community which then plowed right back into the market further punishing the would-be shorts. The culmination of this strong wave of buying continued past Tuesday of this week with gold being driven over $20 higher in yesterday?s session with follow through buying seen in today?s session that took it past the previous record high establishing a new price peak in the process. All said, the market moved from $850 to $925 over the course of 4 days. I can say this with absolute certainty ? this was a week that the perma-shorts in gold will long remember!

Apparently it has been getting much more difficult for the bullion banks since they are no longer able to have their way with this market. In times past, a $50 rout to the downside would have seen massive fund long liquidation alongside that of the general public as well with shell-shocked bulls licking their wounds for several weeks at least while the wholesale exodus from the long side continued. Not this time around ? and who says that gold?s safe haven status is in question? Someone wanted gold and they wanted it badly enough to step in front of a market that appeared to be in a free fall, not only stemming the decline, but completely reversing it and driving it to a record high in the process!

There will be many more battles along the way for gold as it climbs past the $1000 level on to $1650 and higher in the years ahead but this week belongs to the bulls who administered one helluva thrashing to their enemies. 

Dan


----------



## Nyden

I had a thought; people keep using the term 'safe haven', and with the intent of avoiding volatility.

But, is gold really that safe a haven? It's just rallied so hard in a matter of months (& years!) if it were a stock I'd say it was overbought! In the short term, is there not a risk of rather significant losses here? Not to mention all the complications from different currencies! (Especially when entering at these levels)

What bothers me, is that the rise isn't driven by a massive increase in *need*, but rather a want ... just seems dangerous.

In 05' gold was at 500/600-something, wasn't it? 3 years later we're sitting on nearly 1000 ... that's a fairly significant rise, for something that's supposedly stable.

Gold was actually my very first investment, I bought myself a little physical bar many years ago : & I am now considering to add the stock GOLD to what will be my conservative portfolio, consisting of an index fund, high interest savings account, & gold.


----------



## Kauri

apparently... 
 some funds ( talk of more bank, hedge fund and quant losses) have been caught out since last weekend and have had to bail out of some positions.. in a hurry.. (i.e. a French bank  dropped 200GBP into the London fix after rumours had been circulating pre-fix that someone was getting set to go that way).. however.. quite often gold is the first assett dumped in an effort to stave off the money lenders, maybe that could go some ways towards explaining Mondays action??  ..  rather than the easily and oft quoted but hard to prove CB conspiracies.. it's a bit like reporters quoting the reason for an up day in the markets as being due to bargain hunters and a down day is put down to profit takers.. makes them look intelligent (maybe??) but really shows that they don't know  tiddly from  toady...  I thunk....  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> I had a thought; people keep using the term 'safe haven', and with the intent of avoiding volatility.
> 
> But, is gold really that safe a haven? It's just rallied so hard in a matter of months (& years!) if it were a stock I'd say it was overbought! In the short term, is there not a risk of rather significant losses here? Not to mention all the complications from different currencies! (Especially when entering at these levels)
> 
> *You may be correct, in fact nothing is safe.  It is the perception or mood that drives a trend and while the trend is up, one follows that direction.*
> 
> What bothers me, is that the rise isn't driven by a massive increase in *need*, but rather a want ... just seems dangerous.
> 
> *Can one distinguish between want and need in the market.  Need to make money so invest in gold while it is going up.   Need food go to the supermarket.*
> 
> In 05' gold was at 500/600-something, wasn't it? 3 years later we're sitting on nearly 1000 ... that's a fairly significant rise, for something that's supposedly stable.
> 
> *And a couple of years before that gold was 300, is that not a stable uptrend.  You will note that James Turk above believes gold is very undervalued due to inflation.  So it may well continue to go all the way up to 6000.  His argument is fairly good*
> 
> Gold was actually my very first investment, I bought myself a little physical bar many years ago : & I am now considering to add the stock GOLD to what will be my conservative portfolio, consisting of an index fund, high interest savings account, & gold.




*I am doing similar and on obvious retracements I sell my gold stocks and only go back on the obvious upticks. *


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nyden said:


> I had a thought; people keep using the term 'safe haven', and with the intent of avoiding volatility.
> 
> But, is gold really that safe a haven? It's just rallied so hard in a matter of months (& years!) if it were a stock I'd say it was overbought! In the short term, is there not a risk of rather significant losses here? Not to mention all the complications from different currencies! (Especially when entering at these levels)
> 
> What bothers me, is that the rise isn't driven by a massive increase in *need*, but rather a want ... just seems dangerous.
> 
> In 05' gold was at 500/600-something, wasn't it? 3 years later we're sitting on nearly 1000 ... that's a fairly significant rise, for something that's supposedly stable.




Overbought? Short term trading possibly yes. Depends what you compare it too. Not overbought relative to the money supply M3. Not overbought relative to it's inflation adjusted value. Relative to any number of 'things' it is still 'cheap'?

I posted the chart below on the oil thread, but also serves as a comparison between relative commodity price appreciation over the last few years. If you compare it with the energy bull, golds advance is still rather orderly, but more to the point is still only just starting to enter the parabolic stage?

The danger with thinking that a secular bull trend has run too hard is that gold is in blue sky now. It has momentum & growing widespread, diverse support from non investment types ie the general public is aware.

There will be pullbacks, some severe. We may be in for another 'consolidation' phase if the Fed decides to digest the 75 bp cut though, to be offset by a deepening of the US recession or the contagion spreading further eg China (the saviour of the world ), or, deflation rear's it's ugly head.


----------



## tigerboi

can someone tell me the exact measurements used for gold,is an ounce at 

30 grams which is metric or is it 28 grams the old oz?????thx anyone..tb


----------



## Kauri

tigerboi said:


> can someone tell me the exact measurements used for gold,is an ounce at
> 
> 30 grams which is metric or is it 28 grams the old oz?????thx anyone..tb




troy ounces...
  Troy Ounce (20 pennyweights)480grains...31.1034768grams


----------



## tigerboi

tigerboi said:


> can someone tell me the exact measurements used for gold,is an ounce at
> 
> 30 grams which is metric or is it 28 grams the old oz?????thx anyone..tb





troy weight at 31.10 grams per oz...found this site for all into gold gives you

the price in 23 currencies....gold price.org,also www.24carat.co.uk

also had for awhile...www.goldnerds...they give you info on all aussie gold 

companies......so troy ounce is 32.15 oz to the kg....tb


----------



## barrett

Nyden said:


> I had a thought; people keep using the term 'safe haven', and with the intent of avoiding volatility.
> 
> But, is gold really that safe a haven? It's just rallied so hard in a matter of months (& years!) if it were a stock I'd say it was overbought! In the short term, is there not a risk of rather significant losses here? Not to mention all the complications from different currencies! (Especially when entering at these levels)
> 
> What bothers me, is that the rise isn't driven by a massive increase in *need*, but rather a want ... just seems dangerous.
> 
> In 05' gold was at 500/600-something, wasn't it? 3 years later we're sitting on nearly 1000 ... that's a fairly significant rise, for something that's supposedly stable.
> 
> Gold was actually my very first investment, I bought myself a little physical bar many years ago : & I am now considering to add the stock GOLD to what will be my conservative portfolio, consisting of an index fund, high interest savings account, & gold.




Nyden, nice work on your early gold buy.  Here's my take on gold.  

Currency investors prefer currencies with higher real interest rates (yields), and the expected future direction of yields directs the carry trade, which directs the exchange rates of the currencies.. 

Current yields on some major global currencies:

__short term interest rate___consumer price inflation rate___*yield*
Renminbi______4.14%_____________6.9%______________ *-2.76%*
US dollar______2.3%______________7.5%______________ *-5.2%*
Gold__________ 0%________________-__________________ *0%*
Yen__________0.5%______________0.8%_______________ *-0.3%*

The price of gold has been going up in recent years because its exchange rates against other currencies are benefiting from the carry trade.  You often hear journalists saying 'gold pays no interest'.. what they don't seem to realise is that at 0% interest, right now gold is about the highest yielding currency around!  That's the fundamental reason why the gold price is going up at the moment.. as they say in fixed income investing, yield is king.

Because the markets are forward looking, today's changes in currency exchange rates reflect expectations of future changes in their relative yields.  Some questions affecting the future yields of the fiat currencies:

Are the major central banks coming under pressure to raise or lower interest rates (considering the ongoing credit crisis)?

Is consumer price inflation in the major economies increasing or decreasing?

Is the combination of these likely to drive the yields of the fiat currencies up or down?

The way I see it, massive pressure on central banks to reduce interest rates, combined with structural deficits in all the main commodities stoking inflation, will combine to drive the yields on fiat currencies down, increasing gold's yield advantage.  

The US-led global credit boom, under-investment in commodity production, peak oil, Asia's industrialisation and competititive currency devaluation are background reasons for why fiat currency yields are low today, with excessive credit creation over the past 35 years being the main culprit.   Thanks to that, it now takes $7 of debt to fund every additional dollar of US GDP - so interest rates there have to be kept low to avoid a depression.

So I see the fundamentals as being a bit stronger than the 'safe haven from the credit crisis' media argument.  In fact I suspect that argument is just a safe haven for journalists who don't understand currencies and will be some of the last to buy gold.

Re the question you raised about gold price corrections, they do tend to be big and unpredictable, IMO a few good principles for a conservative portfolio are don't buy all at one time.. average in.. buy more in May-August when prices tend to dip.. don't trade in and out.      


Chinese inflation: November 2007 figure
Japanese inflation: Dec 07 figure, central bank official interest rate
US dollar: shadowstats inflation.. all others are bogus (government) figures


----------



## josjes

barrett said:


> Nyden, nice work on your early gold buy.  Here's my take on gold.
> 
> Currency investors prefer currencies with higher real interest rates (yields), and the expected future direction of yields directs the carry trade, which directs the exchange rates of the currencies..
> 
> Current yields on some major global currencies:
> 
> __short term interest rate___consumer price inflation rate___*yield*
> Renminbi______4.14%_____________6.9%______________ *-2.76%*
> US dollar______2.3%______________7.5%______________ *-5.2%*
> Gold__________ 0%________________-__________________ *0%*
> Yen__________0.5%______________0.8%_______________ *-0.3%*
> 
> The price of gold has been going up in recent years because its exchange rates against other currencies are benefiting from the carry trade.  You often hear journalists saying 'gold pays no interest'.. what they don't seem to realise is that at 0% interest, right now gold is about the highest yielding currency around!  That's the fundamental reason why the gold price is going up at the moment.. as they say in fixed income investing, yield is king.
> 
> Because the markets are forward looking, today's changes in currency exchange rates reflect expectations of future changes in their relative yields.  Some questions affecting the future yields of the fiat currencies:
> 
> Are the major central banks coming under pressure to raise or lower interest rates (considering the ongoing credit crisis)?
> 
> Is consumer price inflation in the major economies increasing or decreasing?
> 
> Is the combination of these likely to drive the yields of the fiat currencies up or down?
> 
> The way I see it, massive pressure on central banks to reduce interest rates, combined with structural deficits in all the main commodities stoking inflation, will combine to drive the yields on fiat currencies down, increasing gold's yield advantage.
> 
> The US-led global credit boom, under-investment in commodity production, peak oil, Asia's industrialisation and competititive currency devaluation are background reasons for why fiat currency yields are low today, with excessive credit creation over the past 35 years being the main culprit.   Thanks to that, it now takes $7 of debt to fund every additional dollar of US GDP - so interest rates there have to be kept low to avoid a depression.
> 
> So I see the fundamentals as being a bit stronger than the 'safe haven from the credit crisis' media argument.  In fact I suspect that argument is just a safe haven for journalists who don't understand currencies and will be some of the last to buy gold.
> 
> Re the question you raised about gold price corrections, they do tend to be big and unpredictable, IMO a few good principles for a conservative portfolio are don't buy all at one time.. average in.. buy more in May-August when prices tend to dip.. don't trade in and out.
> 
> 
> Chinese inflation: November 2007 figure
> Japanese inflation: Dec 07 figure, central bank official interest rate
> US dollar: shadowstats inflation.. all others are bogus (government) figures




Excellent commentary Barrett. We are in the same wavelength. The "real yield" argument is definitely THE most important reason why gold is in bull territory. As long as the FED keeps cutting the rate, and inflation remains rampant, Gold is King. 
Bottom Line is :
In a "fight" sentiment versus fundamentals & liquidity, sentiment will lose eventually and give way to the primary trend up. Bullish sentiment is frequent during strong bull markets and confirming the uptrend.
As a rule you would never buy everything in one step, 2-3 steps are the minimum to cost average and diversify on the time axis. The best strategy after the initial position is to buy the dips, e.g after corrections of 2 months
(much more you hardly get in a bull market).


----------



## ithatheekret

josjes said:


> As a rule you would never buy everything in one step, 2-3 steps are the minimum to cost average and diversify on the time axis.





Someone has mastered the price axis versus the time axis and evaluated a trading plan to steer by .

Modifying the generator ( fractal ) helps . Invariances are the only proof .


Much applause for so much said in a short sentence , because the poster has also grasped dynamics ......... much applause . But it does not only apply to POG it has a far broader range than that . It can be spread much further than cost averaging , depending on the basis of the evaluation model . But to pick out diversification on the time axis , is what we aspire to constantly .

Whilst some may just see it as a trading plan , it goes beyond that , it is a wealth creation plan that can be compounded on .


----------



## michael_selway

barrett said:


> Nyden, nice work on your early gold buy.  Here's my take on gold.
> 
> Currency investors prefer currencies with higher real interest rates (yields), and the expected future direction of yields directs the carry trade, which directs the exchange rates of the currencies..
> 
> Current yields on some major global currencies:
> 
> __short term interest rate___consumer price inflation rate___*yield*
> Renminbi______4.14%_____________6.9%______________ *-2.76%*
> US dollar______2.3%______________7.5%______________ *-5.2%*
> Gold__________ 0%________________-__________________ *0%*
> Yen__________0.5%______________0.8%_______________ *-0.3%*
> 
> The price of gold has been going up in recent years because its exchange rates against other currencies are benefiting from the carry trade.  You often hear journalists saying 'gold pays no interest'.. what they don't seem to realise is that at 0% interest, right now gold is about the highest yielding currency around!  That's the fundamental reason why the gold price is going up at the moment.. as they say in fixed income investing, yield is king.
> 
> Because the markets are forward looking, today's changes in currency exchange rates reflect expectations of future changes in their relative yields.  Some questions affecting the future yields of the fiat currencies:
> 
> Are the major central banks coming under pressure to raise or lower interest rates (considering the ongoing credit crisis)?
> 
> Is consumer price inflation in the major economies increasing or decreasing?
> 
> Is the combination of these likely to drive the yields of the fiat currencies up or down?
> 
> The way I see it, massive pressure on central banks to reduce interest rates, combined with structural deficits in all the main commodities stoking inflation, will combine to drive the yields on fiat currencies down, increasing gold's yield advantage.
> 
> The US-led global credit boom, under-investment in commodity production, peak oil, Asia's industrialisation and competititive currency devaluation are background reasons for why fiat currency yields are low today, with excessive credit creation over the past 35 years being the main culprit.   Thanks to that, it now takes $7 of debt to fund every additional dollar of US GDP - so interest rates there have to be kept low to avoid a depression.
> 
> So I see the fundamentals as being a bit stronger than the 'safe haven from the credit crisis' media argument.  In fact I suspect that argument is just a safe haven for journalists who don't understand currencies and will be some of the last to buy gold.
> 
> Re the question you raised about gold price corrections, they do tend to be big and unpredictable, IMO a few good principles for a conservative portfolio are don't buy all at one time.. average in.. buy more in May-August when prices tend to dip.. don't trade in and out.
> 
> 
> Chinese inflation: November 2007 figure
> Japanese inflation: Dec 07 figure, central bank official interest rate
> US dollar: shadowstats inflation.. all others are bogus (government) figures




Hi what about Australia?

thx

MS


----------



## Whiskers

There goes a new record high. 

Just keeps adding to the staggering heights. $928.80 as I post.


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> There goes a new record high.
> 
> Just keeps adding to the staggering heights. $928.80 as I post.



Cracking another woody again. 

Concern I have is the old theorum the faster they rise, the harder they fall...for the sake of my long term LGL and NCM, time for consolidation above $900 please. Or, maybe it already has....


----------



## ithatheekret

You think POGs looking good check out platinum whoooohooooo .

1700 big ones


----------



## Whiskers

kennas said:


> Cracking another woody again.
> 
> Concern I have is the old theorum the faster they rise, the harder they fall...for the sake of my long term LGL and NCM, time for consolidation above $900 please. Or, maybe it already has....




I tend to agree kennas, but I haven't given it a lot of thought the last few weeks, just accepted that it will stay strong for awhile cos the US is determined to stave off a recession no matter the risk of inflation tomorrow. 

US markets relatively steady, slightly green and setting up for a good day here for gold stocks.


----------



## Whiskers

ithatheekret said:


> You think POGs looking good check out platinum whoooohooooo .
> 
> 1700 big ones




Yeah, tends not to get a lot of mention, but I've been watching. Some little specs have platinum shows as a side-kick to gold and base metals. Probably a bit of reassessing priorities going on now.


----------



## ithatheekret

Whiskers said:


> US markets relatively steady, slightly green and setting up for a good day here for gold stocks.





Might get a shock and see banks roar tomorrow too , the US financials sickly as they are , have started to glow on the US boards . Smells like consolidation plays , whilst everyone else argues about decoupling ..........


----------



## ithatheekret

............ even coppers comeabout , up by a bluey .


----------



## bean

Delivery for february gold on Comex starts today - Do they have the gold to delivery for those who want it or are higher  prices in the offering.

Either way there are going to be big losers in the *shorts* on Comex

A week to remember $1000 is a possibitliy


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> A week to remember $1000 is a possibitliy



Not $540 beanster? :

Never letting you live that one down my little legume. 

I suppose we'll be back at $540, _one day_.


----------



## CamKawa

Does anyone know of a good free web site that offers the ability to chart the POG, AUD and USD on the one chart? I wouldn’t mind seeing how it looks for the last 6 months. Thanks.


----------



## Kauri

A tad early yet but... a touch of diversion may be developing... be a good spot for a four if it does..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Miner

CamKawa said:


> Does anyone know of a good free web site that offers the ability to chart the POG, AUD and USD on the one chart? I wouldn’t mind seeing how it looks for the last 6 months. Thanks.




Please peruse postings in this thread specially the charts from Kauri.
You can also try kitco.com for gold, silver etc charts and historical values too.
Alternatively just type gold chart in google - you would be bombarded with various other sites too 

Good luck


----------



## Kauri

CamKawa said:


> Does anyone know of a good free web site that offers the ability to chart the POG, AUD and USD on the one chart? I wouldn’t mind seeing how it looks for the last 6 months. Thanks.




Not sure if this is what you are after... POG vs the AUDUSD swap...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Rooters...  Anglo-Gold sees all its S.African gold mines back in full production by the end of next week.
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

if you are looking to predict the AUD/USD rate, id suggest trying a commodity bundle index rather then just gold.


----------



## Kauri

Eurosystem central banks continue to pare gold reserves with gold reserves declining by EUR51 mln the week of January 25th due to sales from one bank. Gold reserves have now declined for 167 out of the last 173 weeks. 
      ECB reserves have dropped EUR 800 mln to EUR151.9 bln with reserves down EUR1.9 bln since year-end revaluation.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

is gold overpriced seeing its at 'all time highs'?

perhaps. or perhaps, when accounting for inflation its only at about 50% of the real all time high.


----------



## explod

Stormin_Norman said:


> is gold overpriced seeing its at 'all time highs'?
> 
> perhaps. or perhaps, when accounting for inflation its only at about 50% of the real all time high.




The idea of golds true inflation adjusted value has been discussed and answered many times on this thread.    Anyone at all interested in gold or gold stocks as an investement should read there way through this most valuable information.

The peak of gold in 1980 was about US$850 and ounce.  If you think about what an item cost back then and use the multiple on gold we have todays potential peak.

A house cost about $75,000 back then. Lets say it is an average of $300,000 now, that's 4 times, so a gold price jump to more than US$3,000 per ounce is most reasonable.

There are other factors which say that it may even be very much more due to golds use as a store of wealth and a hedge against currency devaluation.    The reasons for this are lengthy and important and as I said are contained as a beginning on this subject within this thread.

It is worth feeding the subject "gold as a store of wealth" into Google also.


----------



## explod

Stormin_Norman said:


> is gold overpriced seeing its at 'all time highs'?
> 
> perhaps. or perhaps, when accounting for inflation its only at about 50% of the real all time high.




*And here another view today*



> National Bank makes massive call on gold
> Posted: January 29, 2008, 12:46 PM by Peter Koven
> Mining
> When you hear calls for US$1,500 gold within 12 to 18 months, you assume they're coming from the usual gold bugs. They do that kind of thing all the time. But in this case, it's coming from a much more objective source: National Bank Financial.
> 
> Chief economist ClÃ©ment Gignac, who has been bearish on the U.S. economy for ages, lays out five reasons why gold is making a comeback as an investment haven and should reach his lofty US$1,500 an ounce target: financial instability, massive injections of liquidity and a return to negative interest rates, the declining value and roll of the U.S. dollar, swelling U.S. budget deficits and inflation expectations, and increased financial demand for gold as a distinct asset class.
> 
> None of these factors will come as a shock to anyone, but Mr. Gignac figures they will combine to keep the upside pressure on bullion well into the future.
> 
> 
> "We think gold has attractive potential for appreciation and, especially, as a tool for medium-term portfolio diversification via gold stocks or gold ETFs," he wrote in a note to clients. "The current price of crude oil, around US$90 a barrel, is about the same in constant dollars as the late-1970s high. Our new gold target of US$1,500 an ounce is still far from the early-1980s high of US$2,200 in constant dollars."
> 
> 
> Peter Koven
> 
> 
> 
> Comments (0)    Send to a friend    Permalink
> 
> [end quote]


----------



## Stormin_Norman

also take a look at the economic conditions in the late 70s and compare these to the current conditions.


----------



## Temjin

*GATA GOLD RALLY COMING!*

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1201590240.php

I also received an email recently...



> *Go GATA; Go Gold!*
> 
> *Go Terbo!*
> 
> *Silver Stock Report*
> 
> *by Jason Hommel, January 29, 2008*
> 
> 
> My gut tells me that the gold price has a good chance to go up by more than $25 in one day on Friday, February 1st, and again, another $25 in one day on Monday, February 4th, because a certain ad will come out in a Washington paper on Thursday, this week.
> 
> Why do I make such a bold statement? Because it's not that bold when you know what GATA knows.
> 
> Also, Peter Degraaf is saying something similar:
> http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1201590240.php
> 
> "For the next few weeks or months, analysts will likely refer to the latest rise in the gold price, which started today, as the GATA RALLY."
> 
> GATA has good information about gold, that, when shared, makes the gold price move up!
> 
> Back in 2005, after GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference informed some 100 key people about gold, the gold price was at about $430/oz. and moved up more than $10/day for the next two days, and then launched a nearly parabolic rally that only stopped at $720/oz. in May, 2006.
> 
> GATA's conference presenters were the wisest and most informed gold analysts in the world.
> 
> Back then, there was what they called the "$6 rule" in place, where the gold price managers would come out and sell a lot of gold if ever gold was up $6 in one day, because "price action makes market commentary", and so they were trying to cap any excitement in gold. This was one bit of information presented at the conference at goldrush21.com.
> 
> One man who attended GATA's show was Andrey Bykov, the personal economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. I met this man. I was at the show. He said it was the best conference he had attended in his life. That show likely helped Russia to act, to buy gold.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/aug122005.html
> 
> People buy gold when they know what is going on. When they realize the true supply/demand picture, that the central banks of the world are running out of gold after having engaged in leasing and selling their gold for years that has had a tendency to cap the price, making gold way too cheap, then people buy gold.
> 
> On Thursday, GATA will run a full page ad in the Wall Street Journal at a cost of $264,400. This ad will have to be "answered" by the gold establishment Wall Street banks, just like I had to answer Jessica Cross yesterday. But what can they say? Who will answer and how? What will they do, bring out Jessica Cross again to spew some nonsense?
> 
> If the ad is not enough to spill the beans on the gold market, then GATA's conference in April, probably will.
> 
> The circulation of the Wall Street Journal is more than 2,000,000.
> My circulation is about 68,000.
> GATA's email list is maybe about 5000 to 10,000.
> See GATA.org
> 
> See GoldRush21.com
> --You can order a DVD of the Historic GATA gold conference for $20.
> A preview of GATA's 2 meg pdf file ad:
> http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-AD-01-14-2008.pdf
> http://www.silverstockreport.com/GATA/GATA-AD-01-14-2008.pdf <--faster download
> 
> Disclaimer: I do not know the future. I cannot predict what will happen on Friday. And I certainly would never bet, nor gamble, nor engage in any futures contracts. But I would, and I have, bought real, physical, rare silver and gold in anticipation and expectation of all that I do know.




So who thinks this coming advertisment will bring some sort of influence on the gold price over the next few days?

Personally, I will listen to the disclaimer and not bet on the future using contracts. May plan to risk additional 2% of my portfolio and wait and see what happens.


----------



## CamKawa

I'm wondering what peoples thoughts are on a rate cut. If it's only 25 points do think the POG will drop given that the POG by in large risen in the lead up to tonight’s announcement?

Where did this additional rate cut rumour come from? Did Ben say something or is it just a rumour started by some fund manager?


----------



## explod

*Re: GATA GOLD RALLY COMING!*



Temjin said:


> http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1201590240.php
> 
> I also received an email recently...
> 
> 
> 
> So who thinks this coming advertisment will bring some sort of influence on the gold price over the next few days?
> 
> Personally, I will listen to the disclaimer and not bet on the future using contracts. May plan to risk additional 2% of my portfolio and wait and see what happens.




Noticed some other pundits also mention the probability of GATA going to the press and that it may be positive.

Jason Hommel of course is one of the greatest rampers for his own cause I have ever read.   Silver is his go.

Yep the conference does attract attention, and I think (Pierre Lisonde??spelling) ex CEO of Newmont made statements at the last conference that was both effective on the gold price and propheticly correct.

Probably not hard to make a prediction at the moment because the debasement of the US dollar due to their dropping interest rates will take gold up a great deal in the coming months anyway.


----------



## ithatheekret

LGL $3.81 saw a 84 earlier , I was putting an order in and the broker was muttering something about their output , but only bits sunk in , decided to sell the news , probably a mistake , but too late now . the rest are sitting there at $3.82 if anyone wants them .


----------



## ithatheekret

Couldn't convince anyone huh  ........ meanies .  :

gone at I think it was the same as opening price $3.77 .


I like the stock , but this feels so much like a traders market still . Even with perfect fundamental credentials backing top grade stocks up .


----------



## CamKawa

ithatheekret said:


> Couldn't convince anyone huh  ........ meanies .  :
> 
> gone at I think it was the same as opening price $3.77 .
> 
> 
> I like the stock , but this feels so much like a traders market still . Even with perfect fundamental credentials backing top grade stocks up .



I spent the better part of the day twiddling my thumbs wondering what sort of mood Ben is going to be in tonight.


----------



## barrett

CamKawa said:


> I'm wondering what peoples thoughts are on a rate cut. If it's only 25 points do think the POG will drop given that the POG by in large risen in the lead up to tonight’s announcement?
> 
> Where did this additional rate cut rumour come from? Did Ben say something or is it just a rumour started by some fund manager?




from Bloomberg Jan29th,
"Traders see an 86 percent chance of Fed rate cut to 3 percent tomorrow, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. Policy makers, who lowered the target rate for overnight loans between banks by three-quarters of a percentage point on Jan. 22, begin their two-day meeting today. "

Not sure exactly how the markets came to be so certain of 0.5, but I doubt the Fed will want to disappoint..

Some good info has been posted here lately, and I hope GATA's action gets some media exposure.  Potentially a bottom forming on the chart this last day.. I'm nearly as long as I can get on gold, hopefully the Fed delivering the goods tomorrow night will spice up the action a bit

Just came across this example of competitive currency devaluation, Philippines central bank cutting rates 50bp .. "..to temper the peso's strengthening against the dollar".  I wouldn't be surprised if there's a round robin of similar cuts around the world this next month or so.. no-one wants a strong currency.. more fuel on the fire for gold:
http://business.inquirer.net/money/...15391/BSP-may-cut-rates-by-50-bps-on-Thursday


----------



## barrett

michael_selway said:


> Hi what about Australia?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




RBA core CPI now supposedly 3.6%, headline only 3%.. it seems a bit lowballed to me.  I'd put my own cost of living increase at more like 6%pa at a guess (anyone know of a useful private sector estimate.. or worked out their own CPI?).. so _my guess_ is the net yield on the $A is about 1%, slightly better than most other fiats..

$A & other marginally positive yielding fiats are still no competition for gold at the moment IMO, given the uncertain economic outlook and falling $US.. for instance if the $A were bid much over parity with $US, RBA would be more likely to ease, reducing demand.. similar for some other higher yielding fiats.  A higher exchange rate for gold on the other hand causes _increased_ demand for it in the form of buying pressure from investors and central banks, so from that perspective gold seems the safer of the currency plays
.. frequent mood swings aside..  

Gold's gains against the $A might be less than against some other fiats, but I reckon they will still be huge over time thanks to global demand..
cheers


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> from Bloomberg Jan29th,
> "Traders see an 86 percent chance of Fed rate cut to 3 percent tomorrow, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. Policy makers, who lowered the target rate for overnight loans between banks by three-quarters of a percentage point on Jan. 22, begin their two-day meeting today. "
> 
> Not sure exactly how the markets came to be so certain of 0.5, but I doubt the Fed will want to disappoint..



So really there's nothing stopping Ben from coming out tonight waving to the crowd and then shuffling back in leaving rates unchanged. I was surprised to hear that rates would drop again shortly after the 75 point announcement given the lag any change has to take effect.

I don’t think the Fed should be dictated to by the mood of a fickle market. If he caves into the markets wishes where is that going to leave him?  Looking weak I'd say. Look at Stevo here at our end, he raised rates in the middle of a federal election campaign - there's a man with spine.


----------



## Real1ty

CamKawa said:


> So really there's nothing stopping Ben from coming out tonight waving to the crowd and then shuffling back in leaving rates unchanged. I was surprised to hear that rates would drop again shortly after the 75 point announcement given the lag any change has to take effect.
> 
> I don’t think the Fed should be dictated to by the mood of a fickle market. If he caves into the markets wishes where is that going to leave him?  Looking weak I'd say. Look at Stevo here at our end, he raised rates in the middle of a federal election campaign - there's a man with spine.





Ben already has very little credibility and is seen by the majority of being keen to pander to the banks and hedge funds.

If you read his speeches, originally they were about inflation where as lately they have contained references to risks to growth etc.

Whether they should actually be cutting rates, is a completely different issue, but the consensus is that they will continue to do so, and probably destroy the $, or what's left of it in the process.


----------



## ithatheekret

test

mucking about with file conversions , with little luck , but I thought I'd put this up for some to gauge , my bet it went much further but I'm a tad busy getting confused by a machine .


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> test
> 
> mucking about with file conversions , with little luck , but I thought I'd put this up for some to gauge , my bet it went much further but I'm a tad busy getting confused by a machine .




Nice work!  Any more buy signals coming in, or sell signals (if you're trading short term swings?)


----------



## ithatheekret

Hi Barrett swinging is risky on POG , set limits are easier , market can put you anywhere above or below the price , some are wild .

I have that it has to breach back through 920.45-55 before real worries , but never discount anything in assumption ...........


920.40/45/50/55/60/65 all had the markings to buy on the trend for me .

I only got one entry out of all of those , it flew past before I could act .

Someone just smashed the price down earlier , but if there looking now they'd be kicking themselves I'd say .

The scuffle spot is being approached again @ 921.25 just below that I have another smaller entry waiting ( 920.90 ) . The sell signal is good profit or panic .

But with Fedspeak on the roster today , it had to be worth a shot .

Spotted Alliance falling like a rock again , Blackstone stuff  I'd say , Kauri will be stoked , I think he's short , hope he is they're copping it today .


----------



## ithatheekret

there ya go Barrett exactly $1 under that line it dropped to 

920.40/45/50/55/60/65 inferred    actual (919.45/50/55)


----------



## ithatheekret

want to see scary ........


----------



## Sean K

ithatheekret said:


> want to see scary ........



IBM going down 40 cents in the gold thread is scary? 

I've only got one side of the cube out on that one thekret.....


----------



## ithatheekret

It was scary for me , it was a short gathering strength again , now closed .


----------



## barrett

Still looking for a re-entry after a stop was taken out earlier, should have bought at 916, continuation of neckline for last week's huge inverted H&S, has been touched a couple of times, maybe the last..

I found that huge selloff earlier a bit suspicious,12-1am slot seems to be the favourite for central bank selling, maybe they were intentionally trying to trigger all the sell stops below 919-920? That might explain why volume has tailed off so much now the public purse isn't involved..

Looks like you programmed your algorithm into MT4 as an expert advisor, Ithatheekret?  I haven't tried that yet (aside from not having an algorithm..), is the system working well? 

Re the series of numbers you mentioned.. I am watching a 5-min candlestick chart, didn't notice those series, what format of chart are you watching?


----------



## ithatheekret

I have my settings put in by a couple of friends from town , can't tell you the settings off hand , been struggling with it already , tried to get it to feed into HSBC a/c platform and it froze first time crashed the second .

The M4 feed platform I was directed to as a free download , completely different to anything else I've used , every 10 minutes or so it refreshes , but I was told that can be sped up or didn't need to be set to refresh .

Are you asking in regards to trigger lines and buffers ?

Sometimes I can get it to accept , sometimes it just won't , I've been told the code is either outside it's parameters or completely wrong . One thing I did find was that if I didn't untick the position limit it would pack up on me , now it takes loads of securities settings , had to figure out that a simple unticking of a box allowed further entries etc., Then I had a few problems with the EST , I think that's all sorted out now ..........

This is embarrassing , but it took me ages to figure out that to merge data first I had to open the downloader, click on tools, and then merge. Browse to the folder of the first ticker and select the first ticker. For the destination I repeated  the same thing and clicked on options, select keep destination and then and or delete source. Then click OK .

Sometimes it won't allow the merge , don't know why ... yet .


PS,,, Haven't had any problems at all with the NAB account , it accepts all feeds so far .


----------



## ithatheekret

there's a file somewhere named ~msfl on this , on my hard drive somewhere , but I haven't found it in the search yet and I need to .

would you know if this is the correct code for the folder ?


----------



## explod

The rate cut, the dollar down and there she goes


----------



## Temjin

Geez, you guys are awake awfully early in the morning for this. 

Now for the GATA golden bombshell tonight! go go go!


----------



## numbercruncher

Gata's upcoming advert !




http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal


----------



## barrett

Still holding above previous highs, and within uptrend (in white) on the hourly despite not being able to hold its Fed-gains this time..


----------



## CamKawa

The major influence on the POG since the 22th of Jan has been the Fed rate cut carrot. Now that the cut has come and gone it'll be interesting to see how the POG travels. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift downwards over the next few days courtesy of a bit of profit taking.


----------



## CamKawa

numbercruncher said:


> Gata's upcoming advert !



And what an ugly bunch they are. I wouldn't think that the POG is going to up as a direct result.


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> The major influence on the POG since the 22th of Jan has been the Fed rate cut carrot. Now that the cut has come and gone it'll be interesting to see how the POG travels. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift downwards over the next few days courtesy of a bit of profit taking.




The US$ usually drifts downward after a rate cut, because lower interest rate means less value.  The gold price goes up when the dollar goes down.

Why do you think that the gold price may go down ?


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> And what an ugly bunch they are. I wouldn't think that the POG is going to up as a direct result.




Well it did after their last meeting.

Why do think this time will be any different ?


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> The US$ usually drifts downward after a rate cut, because lower interest rate means less value.  The gold price goes up when the dollar goes down.
> 
> Why do you think that the gold price may go down ?



Profit taking. 

edit 1: Have a look at Barrett's graph b/w the 22nd - 24th.

edit 2: and I reckon the main reason the POG shot up the 25th was because the rumour mill started that another 50 points were on the way.


----------



## Temjin

Technically, it has to come down sooner or later to ease off the overbrought condition. (or move sideways for a while) How much down or how long the sideway? I doubt anybody would know.   Since I'm not trading this particular "investment", I would be looking to buy on the dips.


----------



## ithatheekret

I'll put my hand up , I was evil and took profits and I didn't take the top either 928.10 , then it went further , I sold the last poz . at 9.29.80  I think and it still kept going . Then it plunged again as it had twice before on the night , someone needed cash quickly ..............

The only thing I have open apart from ASX listed , is GBP sell and some options on AUD .

But , I do expect the currencies to wobble , POG probably will too , lots of money still going home to the US and Japan .


----------



## rederob

CamKawa said:


> The major influence on the POG since the 22th of Jan has been the Fed rate cut carrot. Now that the cut has come and gone it'll be interesting to see how the POG travels. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift downwards over the next few days courtesy of a bit of profit taking.



The Fed will cut to at least 1% so there is still a lot of upside to POG.
Certainly POG will take out $1000 without a problem, so it's just a matter of how much further before a major correction (minimum 15%) and spell in the wilderness.


----------



## CamKawa

rederob said:


> The Fed will cut to at least 1% so there is still a lot of upside to POG.



If you scroll down to the bottom of this page http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp you'll see another 50 points pencilled in by June 25.


rederob said:


> Certainly POG will take out $1000 without a problem, so it's just a matter of how much further before a major correction (minimum 15%) and spell in the wilderness.



I agree my pessimism on the POG is only for the next few days. The long term outlook is good with Santa possibly bringing us all 1100 - 1250 for Xmas.  I'm not ready to talk about 15% corrections yet.


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> Profit taking.
> 
> edit 1: Have a look at Barrett's graph b/w the 22nd - 24th.
> 
> edit 2: and I reckon the main reason the POG shot up the 25th was because the rumour mill started that another 50 points were on the way.





Not sure of what you are responding to in Edit 2. ??   I often miss things.

  Anyway the meeting to which I refer occurred 2 years ago and then the POG went up.


----------



## ithatheekret

rederob said:


> The Fed will cut to at least 1% so there is still a lot of upside to POG.
> Certainly POG will take out $1000 without a problem, so it's just a matter of how much further before a major correction (minimum 15%) and spell in the wilderness.





When the rate get's that low , the first thing I thought was cheap USD loans , much like the Yen rush of loans .

Taking into consideration in the fluctuations of the AUD , I'm really enthused at the prospect . The ability to repay is all that I see as a problem as I'm sure every man , cat and dog would be after them too .

For a 3% loan , I'd camp out the front of a bank for months , I for one could get 5% a month out of it and I'm sure others could too , probably better than that .

A young couple were telling me this arvo , that they had an equity loan tacked onto a homestart loan , the amount loaned was $30K starting at a variable rate though , of 3.8% . It pricked my ears up , but I don't think I'd qualify for this homestart , but I'm looking into it that's for sure .........

They have $100K fixed @ 7+% and $30K starting at the variable 3.8% mentioned , sounded good to me , but I did ask if they would be paying the $30K off as quick as possible .

I know I can walk into the bank tomorrow and get any loan I like , but the fees and interest charges are murder .

So , come on 1%


----------



## Enoch

ithatheekret said:


> When the rate get's that low , the first thing I thought was cheap USD loans , much like the Yen rush of loans .
> 
> Taking into consideration in the fluctuations of the AUD , I'm really enthused at the prospect . The ability to repay is all that I see as a problem as I'm sure every man , cat and dog would be after them too .
> 
> For a 3% loan , I'd camp out the front of a bank for months , I for one could get 5% a month out of it and I'm sure others could too , probably better than that .
> 
> A young couple were telling me this arvo , that they had an equity loan tacked onto a homestart loan , the amount loaned was $30K starting at a variable rate though , of 3.8% . It pricked my ears up , but I don't think I'd qualify for this homestart , but I'm looking into it that's for sure .........
> 
> They have $100K fixed @ 7+% and $30K starting at the variable 3.8% mentioned , sounded good to me , but I did ask if they would be paying the $30K off as quick as possible .
> 
> I know I can walk into the bank tomorrow and get any loan I like , but the fees and interest charges are murder .
> 
> So , come on 1%




Excuse me for my ignorance but what is the easiest way to get a USD Loan and can you hedge so that you arn't paying more in repayments with a declining Aussie Dollar.


----------



## ithatheekret

Try the web , loads of US banks advertising , hedging , you could try options .

But a financial adviser would be your best bet . The licences I have I don't want ........

POG on the other hand is acting like a currency all by itself , so the charts say lately


----------



## ithatheekret

That was beaut , looking for a reversal don't know how much steam is left at present , following the charts you need sea legs ...............

Thanks Ben .


----------



## barrett

Nice buy signal there.. I had noticed volume starting to pick up on the upswings there at the bottom, which hadn't been the case for the earlier part of the day.. & another bounce off the pink neckline, a good sign..

Great interview on Bloomberg, this dude is bang on the money IMO and doesn't mince words about it
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vGNTM73VTBuo.asf


----------



## ithatheekret

Sorry mate I'm a christian , you heretic 

It's moving and both ways works fine , little but often I was told as a kid , I listened now I've got 4          Closed these already , I'm game but not that game ............ missed the top short but managed the other close near it .

(watch it bounce around , pressure from the Dow futures and the Bond Insurer news ??? )

I have another string well above .But would be awfully tempted if it wains again .


----------



## ithatheekret

Unreal instrument this shiney yellow stuff  , 2year under 210 as well ........ lousy US data and a platform gives you a licence to print your own money hey ....
It's gonna be a long night by the looks , heads down , wallets up and you could make decent living out of this work .


----------



## barrett

Enoch said:


> Excuse me for my ignorance but what is the easiest way to get a USD Loan and can you hedge so that you arn't paying more in repayments with a declining Aussie Dollar.




This isn't the only way, just the only way I can think of.. a 'synthetic US dollar loan' by borrowing in $A and buying AUD/USD contracts to an equivalent value. Assuming no currency movements, the net interest rate gain on the contracts would cover most of the interest on the $A loan.  Importantly the cash flow from the contract wouldn't be guaranteed, and certainly not steady.. but to manage currency risk you could have a fairly tight sell stop on it and if the $US persistently moved against you, move to a different currency spread.  Maybe not the most stress-free way of financing the family home, but possible, with a forex account and a big jar of valium


oo, didn't like the volume on that big selloff just now..


----------



## ithatheekret

Crashed as I refreshed eek .

Looks better with the Ichi reading overlayed , might be able to dig something out of it .
This poz is gone , for reversal . If I can do this anyone can .


----------



## Real1ty

That was a good interview barrett , thanks for that.

Sitting up watching my short on a Wheat contract, so will also be keeping on eye on this thread and the POG.

Dow looks like it could possibly be a tank tonight, although too early to call but is down 125 as i type.

No technicals here, only gut feel, but have the feeling there are many been waiting for a sign to take gold profits and tonight if the Dow tanks, might just be the excuse that's needed, not too mention cash flow for those margins


----------



## ithatheekret

Anyone on that swing ? Bl@@dy marvellous .


The Dows just started to recover , thanks to you know who and I don't mean Ben or George . Nearly missed it , got one of Waynes videos running , been going for yonks WAYNE , reckon it will take half a day to get through them , good stuff though . Is there an intermission ?


----------



## ithatheekret

last run on POG for me I think , might get a quick buy back in before nanny nap time . Had a couple more in but covered too early .


----------



## ithatheekret

Vanilla Ichi settings are working a treat , makes calculations so much easier , some good tech trading out there .


----------



## ithatheekret

Sorry forgot the chart , but hey it's 5:20AM here .


----------



## ithatheekret

One last short play shot waiting for another to fill the list , probably won't get it and will have to make do .


Tenk will cross from above soon too , might have to be very quick here .


----------



## ithatheekret

Covered bar the peak poz . took this screen shot just prior . It's tempting to hit again  but greed can take over from logic and prudence .


----------



## ithatheekret

Sorry no I added , crikey , clean this up and bed next I think .


----------



## ithatheekret

It looks like the Tenk is going to cross from underneath , mid cloud around 925.65 on the chart price tad higher at present , but it looks like it might want to go pop ...... as in out of cloud and up again .


----------



## ithatheekret

sorry it crossed at 925.70


----------



## ithatheekret

and it was immediately attack , above cloud too . tsk tsk stk too slack I could of made a weeks wages then .


----------



## ithatheekret

I think it's going to rest back around 921/22ish for the session or Aus opening .

Been a great night though , ASX should boom today , goldies might dip , but could present opp. for some .

Goodluck today all , let's hope it's a ripper . I'd be selective though but that's just me ............


I'll try to get a projection chart up after I've shut my eyes for awhile and it's been a bit lonely in this thread tonight , all making squillions , good onya's .


----------



## ithatheekret

This was the last poz set up , it's on auto with tight  , very tight trailer , brain drain safety net . Expect small jump and retreat on crossing from above , top 2 are calculated peaks , the next 3 I call max body rise against resistance , lower buying volume or thinning trade . Patiently waiting for crossing from above , volatility has been factored into feed . The other sells were why nots .......


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> I think it's going to rest back around 921/22ish for the session or Aus opening .
> 
> Been a great night though , ASX should boom today , goldies might dip , but could present opp. for some .
> 
> Goodluck today all , let's hope it's a ripper . I'd be selective though but that's just me ............
> 
> 
> I'll try to get a projection chart up after I've shut my eyes for awhile and it's been a bit lonely in this thread tonight , all making squillions , good onya's .




fell asleep early last night.. good night for the swings though, your algo was nailing them alright

Massive volume last night, all that swinging, white uptrend on my last chart was violated but still didn't manage to penetrate the pink neckline area.
Still making higher lows day after day.  Fundamentals are bullish, chart is bullish, I am bullish for now..

The only stormcloud is the gold stock indices, not confirming the new high, and turning down last night even as gold rose slightly.  Like every indicator I guess, that's not always right.

John Hussman's XAU:gold indicator, the most reliable I know of, is showing that a multi-year opportunity for buying gold stocks is nearing, or around now..   I am gathering up cash to start adding as many shares of the good ones as I can with an emphasis on fully funded developers since they are the most oversold part of the sector despite their huge potential for both cash flow and as takeover targets.

Charts by Frank Barbera, include relative performance of producers, explorers, developers, etc...
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/fsjg.html

And on that topic especially for anyone new to precious metals I can't recommend anything better than tuning in to the financial sense newshour podcast every weekend, one of my all time favourites, Jim's a legend
Cheers


----------



## ithatheekret

Me too cobber I'm a bug , I just don't admit it to my banks managers .

I don't think I'll game a short tonight , had stuff all sleep except chair naps , just got my second wind now . By the way I think the neckline is correct , it's just easy money for invest. banks etc. right now .

If I'm sober later , it's must be party time for Kauri and myself , I'll put something up if wobbly , I'll get one of the lads to put up the chart for me . 

Cheers ,


Mark


----------



## barrett

just got back, :bier: good work this week... & Kauri deserves something off the top shelf after that a=c call, the whole thread could have retired on that by now

Still long but secretly hoping for a smackdown so I can back the ute up again after a bit of the load was pinched yesterday..

Don't like my chances though! these bl--dy bulls just won't let up,
I'll just have to settle for all the rock-bottom gold stocks they aren't buying.. yet..
cheers


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> just got back, :bier: good work this week... & Kauri deserves something off the top shelf after that a=c call, the whole thread could have retired on that by now
> 
> Still long but secretly hoping for a smackdown so I can back the ute up again after a bit of the load was pinched yesterday..
> 
> Don't like my chances though! these bl--dy bulls just won't let up,
> I'll just have to settle for all the rock-bottom gold stocks they aren't buying.. yet..
> cheers




You can back up the truck.   Notice the timing of the sell off.  Then look at next post


----------



## explod

10am open on N/Y seems to be a PPT strategy.  This one was short lived so we will see.   Like the double interst rate drops just indicates absolute despearation.


----------



## Kauri

the diversion played out... and what next???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Tagore

Is there any connection between the timing of the WSJ GATA ad and the gold sell off last night or is it purely the US jobs data and relative dollar strengthening that did it? I like a good conspiracy theory.............


----------



## ithatheekret

Are there those that remember the 70's and 80's , a $30 swing is peanuts compared to swings back then . 

One of the lads got a 929.60 short which I can't close at the moment , would be nice to take a three unit close at present , it's got a trailer attached so it's safe . My excuse is that I was comatose late last night . The missus told me my only answer , was "goodoh" , when she tried to get a tenable answer out of me but my torpid disposition ( Thanks Kauri  ) , left me in an apathetic situation . What we here in Oz call ........ smashed 

Ah , the fun has just started . How about that Dow ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Forgot to mention but the word torpid suited a desciption of myself late last night , but it also applies to the US economy ....... not it's sharemarket , it has a mind of it's own , it's based around costings and reports , which are the makings of sentiment . But as always , transport will lead the way .

This by no means , says it's all over , more like it's mid play and the coach has just sent in a new receiver . If McCain gets in it will also have a new quarter back , with a good arm .

Obama and Hilary would have them hiding under rocks from the refs .


----------



## CamKawa

Here we go, the rumour mill is getting under way.

"After the employment report Friday, the market is betting that the central bank will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points at its March 18 meeting."
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Market+Snapshot


----------



## ithatheekret

I always tend to struggle with the imaginations of people in high places that think they can always get one over the masses . Then when I look at the masses , I sometimes wonder how they managed to get as far as they have , luck , fortune or karma must play a roll .

A famous quote made by Abraham Lincoln should be a lesson for them to subscribe to :

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."


It's just a shame that they keep on trying and it's lunacy for those that really believe the servings of crap laid out for them .


Non Farm Payrolls , blimey , just a glance at the charts show that the peak in the cycle was in 2003-2005 , these years saw the best of the bull . It was in this period that the data started to get distorted , these years saw well over 300K in NFP data . 

If GATA wants to get a President impeached it had best start going back over the data and pulling out their pens and calculators . It was BS , it still is BS and it will always be BS . If they were to distill it and filter all the muck out of it , I think you'll find they are struggling to get over 135K , current measures say 135K would be absolutely bloomin' marvellous . Something closer to or under 100K is much closer to reality , the economic machine is broken , it's like an old bomb clunking down the road muffler shot and scraping the ground , blaring a racket everywhere it goes . The head gaskets have had it , there's a crack in the head , the CV joints are plain old dangerous and the tyres are bald and begging for a blowout .

The line meaningful employment is a fantasy of some numbnutz imagination , the only amazing thing is that they've gotten away with it for so long .

We're witnessing the shakeup of the USA , it's going to be squeezed , tossed , folded and rolled out before the true amellioration is allowed to set in . Amellioration is what it desperately needs , but it won't win votes .

It's all about economic victory and that has many battles , Presidents never get residence without the conservative vote on their side , that's what gives them the keys to 1600 Pennsyvania Ave. Not mega millions and baby kissing , if the hopefuls don't get it ....... they never will .

Victory has a thousand fathers , defeat is an orphan .

That being the case , just get ready for the rides of your life , volatility is about and around every corner , especially when short squeezes are the money makings in the market . 

Any bets the squeezers get squeezed themselves ?

Well let's take Abes saying and remodel it for the 21st century .

"You can fool all the stock market some of the time, and some of the stock market all the time, but you cannot fool all the stock markets all the time . "

And now I'll probably get jumped on for rattling on in the gold thread , but I tried to show swings the other night , these were dominant signals for myself , the finance district is trying to fight back , you've got to at least expect them to try , fail they will , but do you really think they're going to go down without a fight , half of this mob is buried already . But they'll fight from the grave if they could , damn shame they can't though , so highrisers best bolt windows , especially in the financial districts , I know what pidgeon poo does to my cars paint , I'd hate to see what a flying banker could do .

If relief is what you need to see , I've said it before , watch the transports index , it will show a bottoming out phase commencing and mind you it could take years , the only problem to come is what will get rerated in the indexes and what won't .

I'll just crawl back into my vodka and tonic now ........


----------



## explod

Not at all Ithatheecret, as always  your posts are one of the great contributions.

The financial chaos is the collapse of money, gold became a good of exchange so that city people could swap it for their daily spuds.    

All was great till, must have been 007's mate perhaps, thought up using an IOU with the King's head on it.   We are just looking for the return on our IOU.

Tangible goods, property and gold is all that will be left.

After rate cuts, takes a few days, the US$ index always continues its slide down, watch it this week and look out above for gold.

Dunno bout that vocka, Johnny Walker and petrified water for me


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Interesting story about GATA, conspiracies and the old chestnut dogsbody, Gordon Brown.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/62678-anybody-seen-our-gold


----------



## josjes

barrett said:


> Nice buy signal there.. I had noticed volume starting to pick up on the upswings there at the bottom, which hadn't been the case for the earlier part of the day.. & another bounce off the pink neckline, a good sign..
> 
> Great interview on Bloomberg, this dude is bang on the money IMO and doesn't mince words about it
> http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vGNTM73VTBuo.asf




Impress with the guy in the interview. Succinct and very persuasive argument. Do yourself a favour and hear what he says. Thanks Barrett.


----------



## Kauri

on the daily... drawing a long bow I know.. but the diversion has yet to wind out... maybe..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Sorry to say after the Friday selloff, neckline, shoulderline broken, and today's action, I'm also leaning on the bearish side here and probably for some days yet.  Nice work those who predicted a selloff.

Buying interest on rallies has been low all day, much higher volume on selloffs and that kept me out of the market today after being stopped out spectacularly on Friday night..

Right now I'm taking some notice of the GLD ETF, that major vehicle for gold demand, which just traced out a downside reversal on the weekly (below).

The dollar seems to be becoming the new 'trendy' investment..  
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2HxkpuPdTWc&refer=home

I'd expect any rally in it to be sharp and short lived.. noticing in this article the consensus expectation for a 5%+ rally in the dollar this year.. so much for it being a contrarian investment..


----------



## barrett

some potential resistance levels on the daily,

the yellow.. potential support in the mid 70s for the next day or two 
.. =0.38ret at 875.6.. A?

..and the red.. now at 840 but in another 10 closes it would be around that 0.5ret at 856.9..


----------



## numbercruncher

Nice little spanking recently on the POG.


Those GATA adverts sure musta pissed off the right people


----------



## explod

numbercruncher said:


> Nice little spanking recently on the POG.
> 
> 
> Those GATA adverts sure musta pissed off the right people




Yeh, but they pick on the baby when asleep and it keeps waking.  900 looks like growing support and volume goes up every time it gets near it.

As for Bloomberg, GWB's ole buddy, are the greatest supporter the PPT and Republican's ever had.   A good rule of thumb is do the opposite to what they say and no worries.

As for the US dollar index, it is down, looking shaky and very close to its all time low of late last year.

Be interesting to see where we are this time Wed. morn.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Yeh, but they pick on the baby when asleep and it keeps waking. 900 looks like growing support and volume goes up every time it gets near it.
> 
> As for Bloomberg, GWB's ole buddy, are the greatest supporter the PPT and Republican's ever had. A good rule of thumb is do the opposite to what they say and no worries.
> 
> As for the US dollar index, it is down, looking shaky and very close to its all time low of late last year.
> 
> Be interesting to see where we are this time Wed. morn.




 Come weds, it may be in a recovery WB??.. but a touch too early to call.. for me...yeti...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## josjes

explod said:


> Yeh, but they pick on the baby when asleep and it keeps waking.  900 looks like growing support and volume goes up every time it gets near it.
> 
> As for Bloomberg, GWB's ole buddy, are the greatest supporter the PPT and Republican's ever had.   A good rule of thumb is do the opposite to what they say and no worries.
> 
> As for the US dollar index, it is down, looking shaky and very close to its all time low of late last year.
> 
> Be interesting to see where we are this time Wed. morn.




When multi billion dollars currency traders make prediction like this, and they recognize that the ECB has been behind the curve and that the time may have come to move back into the greenback, don't dismiss it lightly. I can see the logic in this article.  I think short terms US dollars has few friends, but sentiment is undergoing a turn as we speak. By middle of the year, dollar will likely to strongly rebound. Bear case for GOLD ?? Remain alerts for turn of event.

Bloomberg reports:

"Ben S. Bernanke's decision to lower interest rates 1.25 percentage points last month will end the dollar's two-year slide, according to the world's biggest currency traders."

Who is of this opinion? Deutsche Bank - the largest global currency trading firm, UBS AG, the second largest, BNP Paribas - Bloomberg's most accurate of currency forecasters that Bloomberg follows.

"Paris-based BNP, the most accurate of 31 firms surveyed about their currency predictions for the second half of 2007, is among the most bullish on the dollar in 2008 with its forecast of $1.36 per euro by yearend. Zurich-based UBS predicts $1.35. The median estimate calls for a 5.4 percent increase to $1.40 by the end of this year and a 6 percent gain to $1.32 in 2009. The dollar weakened 10.6 percent in 2007 and 11.4 percent in 2006 after strengthening 12.6 percent in 2005."

"Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader, predicts an 8 percent gain in the dollar this year as the euro- zone economy expands 1.6 percent, lagging behind the 1.9 percent growth projected for the U.S."


----------



## explod

josjes said:


> When multi billion dollars currency traders make prediction like this, and they recognize that the ECB has been behind the curve and that the time may have come to move back into the greenback, don't dismiss it lightly. I can see the logic in this article.  I think short terms US dollars has few friends, but sentiment is undergoing a turn as we speak. By middle of the year, dollar will likely to strongly rebound. Bear case for GOLD ?? Remain alerts for turn of event.
> 
> Bloomberg reports:
> 
> "Ben S. Bernanke's decision to lower interest rates 1.25 percentage points last month will end the dollar's two-year slide, according to the world's biggest currency traders."
> 
> Who is of this opinion? Deutsche Bank - the largest global currency trading firm, UBS AG, the second largest, BNP Paribas - Bloomberg's most accurate of currency forecasters that Bloomberg follows.
> 
> "Paris-based BNP, the most accurate of 31 firms surveyed about their currency predictions for the second half of 2007, is among the most bullish on the dollar in 2008 with its forecast of $1.36 per euro by yearend. Zurich-based UBS predicts $1.35. The median estimate calls for a 5.4 percent increase to $1.40 by the end of this year and a 6 percent gain to $1.32 in 2009. The dollar weakened 10.6 percent in 2007 and 11.4 percent in 2006 after strengthening 12.6 percent in 2005."
> 
> "Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader, predicts an 8 percent gain in the dollar this year as the euro- zone economy expands 1.6 percent, lagging behind the 1.9 percent growth projected for the U.S."




I do not dismiss it at all.  It is the very power of it that one must take into consideration when actualloy making a trade.  What I should have mad clear is that it is this unioun which is one of the last fundamentals/weapons left in place to protect the fiat currency system, a sytem that they will protect at all cost.  Cetral Banks across the globe (Deutsche included) are going to be in trouble collectively as the dollar fails because many of them are holding too many of them.   As long as my ATF peers understand this then no problems.    A bit like buy the rumour(crap) sell the fact.

Interesting that gold dropped then returned up and the dollar continues to look a bit shaky in spite of the strong financial/media publicity.


----------



## ithatheekret

I agree the USD strength must return , but something tells me we will see POG rise with the USD , it has happened before and will more likely do it again.
Although I don't see the USD hanging about too long , might help to watch for repat dollars , they must know something , I had a little birdie mention that a lot of European co.s are looking at US companies , before the Sovereigns swoop on them all ............. and Japanese co.s are worried about this and saving nickels and dimes to counter .


----------



## Whiskers

Interesting to note that Platinum and Palladium have firmed strongly the last couple of days while Gold and Silver had a spell. 

Foundations for another leg up for Gold!?


----------



## ithatheekret

so far today ........


----------



## ithatheekret

continued ................


----------



## Sean K

ithatheekret said:


> so far today ........



Yeah, but where is it headed itha? Got a hundred bucks if you tell me....


----------



## numbercruncher

Intresting little piece on Gold I stumble one today.



> Goldfinger: who has the biggest bullion stash?
> 
> 
> But the Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds the prize as the world's biggest known stockpile of gold, some 550,000 glistening bars of the stuff buried deep into the bedrock of lower Manhattan. That's US$203.3 billion worth of gold in a single place. Just 2% to 5% of it is owned by the US government, though. The rest is owned by foreign countries.




http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=373488


----------



## CamKawa

If Stevo lifts rates here how will this affect the price of GOLD locally?


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Yeah, but where is it headed itha? Got a hundred bucks if you tell me....




 Hows about $914-$919 short-term..   
 Chirp
.........Kauri


----------



## josjes

Kauri said:


> Hows about $914-$919 short-term..
> Chirp
> .........Kauri



Kauri's short term is 3-6 hours, right Kauri ? 
Long term, hmm may be 2 days ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Still working on it Kennas , would like another dip as you can see , but I think Kauri is right with the 914 playout , but I have 911.45 so far , it can improve , especially if Aussies pass out with 9% today 

I don't want anything but a smile if we can get it , give the money to ya missus , not a sealion okay  , whilst your with the sealions look for whale pewk , it's worth more than gold .


----------



## ithatheekret

Sorry AUD made me shift them real quick , and even that's scarey at present , only 1 unit each though .


----------



## CamKawa

I haven't looked into the price for every single day but just running my mouse across the chart this would have to be one of, if not the biggest correction in the last 12 months. POG GOLD is currently trading at $99.270.


----------



## ithatheekret

Tell me about it , let me know if my poz bounces will ya , I'm not gonna look nup no f.. way .
Made 22 pips buying Cable , now I'm looking to swing it around , our dollar is a bloomin Kangaroo alright , it's had me almost trash the keys on this board .


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> I haven't looked into the price for every single day but just running my mouse across the chart this would have to be one of, if not the biggest correction in the last 12 months. POG GOLD is currently trading at $99.270.




On an exponential basis the one in December was probably greater as we sit.  A break down of 5% on close is standard trend following sell.  Close to that now.


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> Come weds, it may be in a recovery WB??.. but a touch too early to call.. for me...yeti...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Hi Kauri, I meant to ask what 'app 2.618' refers to on your last chart.. some pretty strong resistance coming in at 887.9 as you indicated..
Ta
Barrett


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> Hi Kauri, I meant to ask what 'app 2.618' refers to on your last chart.. some pretty strong resistance coming in at 887.9 as you indicated..
> Ta
> Barrett




 only a rough guide but W3 should be 1.618 of W1 and W5 often comes in at 2.618
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> only a rough guide but W3 should be 1.618 of W1 and W5 often comes in at 2.618
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




oooops... wrong chart..   below.. or above??


----------



## barrett

Kauri, thanks for the explanation, v helpful...  
With last week's reversal in the ETF and this selloff the past 2 days or so, I'm curious to zoom out a bit on the chart.. attempt below on the daily, 26 Jun 07 - 4 Feb 08.. somehow I don't think fitting an ABC on this bad boy would be winning me any friends!  For now is it better just gaming the corrective phase of the top wave alone and seeing how that develops?  A beginner here at the EW, all hints appreciated.. 
Thanks Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Ok, Platinum has taken out $1,800... where's gold!?


----------



## Kauri

love drawing long bows... is she moving into a corrective WB... i wont be interested though until I see her moving impulsively into a WC..
Cheers
..........Kauri

a bit of diversion to play uot on bottom vinocator..(yep, Iv'e managed to cut half of it off in my screenshot)


----------



## refined silver

Whiskers said:


> Ok, Platinum has taken out $1,800... where's gold!?




Whiskers, you beat me to it! Platinum has less enemies than gold, but gold will follow as soon as the shorts covering rally in the USD finishes.


----------



## barrett

1st impulse of C on the 5 min?    (6 hours, start 911, end 896)
smoked a bit of resistance on the way down
b should be further right.. I think..


----------



## bean

It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.  
The POG???  may well fall 
The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.


----------



## Whiskers

bean said:


> It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
> The POG???  may well fall
> The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.






There's that CRASH word again!

I'm leaning the other way, bean. With the BoE now cutting rates with the US to stave off recession and Europe resisting but probably following suite sooner or later, I see the market holding about it's current levels before pushing on later. 

I did think POG had potential to retrace more than it did a month or two ago, but I'm more optermistic that a world wide recession is being avoided and demand will remain strong for gold given now that Silver, Platinium, Palladium and even Rhodium have followed gold to these levels . I'm also not sure that the supply side is positioned to meet demand for gold in that scenario.


----------



## CamKawa

bean said:


> It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.



Sounds to me like you are making trouble.


bean said:


> The POG???  may well fall
> The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.



If the market crashes the POG may well fall in sympathy as we have seen previously but by significantly less. Gold may be sold off in a flight-to-cash as investors struggle to meet margin calls. If you want to be 100% safe then go 100% cash and take hit on a low return. I still reckon gold is the best investment in the market at the moment.


----------



## CamKawa

Whiskers said:


> :With the BoE now cutting rates...



Three cheers for the Bank of England!


----------



## rederob

bean said:


> It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
> The POG???  may well fall
> The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.




What a punt!
50% chance of getting it right?

Actually I have observed that gold equity prices are very subdued, having factored in the probability of POG (at best) consolidating or declining - but definitely not rising: Note that POG is close to all time highs while equities are up to 35% from their previous highs.
Global currency devaluations and declining interest rates in western nations will favour a lot more upside to POG.
Personally I don't see too many more "crash" scenarios, but I certainly see the subprime contagion spreading more virulently over the medium term - to me suggesting stock markets have a long way to fall before things get better.
I don't think gold equities will stay in lockstep with general equities.


----------



## Ashsaege

bean said:


> It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
> The POG???  may well fall
> The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.




So the market will crash over the next few trading days?? Could you please explain why this is going to happen?
Im kinda hoping it will crash... time to pick up some bargains


----------



## Sean K

Ashsaege said:


> So the market will crash over the next few trading days?? Could you please explain why this is going to happen?
> Im kinda hoping it will crash... time to pick up some bargains



Disregard bean's tips. He called $540 gold about 3 months ago too.


----------



## Whiskers

kennas said:


> Disregard bean's tips. He called $540 gold about 3 months ago too.




Better not rub it in too hard kennas... just in case!


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> Better not rub it in too hard kennas... just in case!



LOL  Yep, it's still on the cards, one day....


----------



## Kimosabi

kennas said:


> Disregard bean's tips. He called $540 gold about 3 months ago too.



If they put Interest rates up to 20%, started deflating the money supply, therefore making paper money more valuable, this could happen.

But in the current environment the chances of gold going to $540 is about as likely as someone finding a pure gold asteroid, dragging it into the earths orbit, and shooting golden nuggets into my backyard...


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> LOL  Yep, it's still on the cards, one day....




A drop to $730 US could occur and the uptrend would still be intact.

Chart coutesy The Privateer Newsletter


----------



## Miner

Kimosabi said:


> If they put Interest rates up to 20%, started deflating the money supply, therefore making paper money more valuable, this could happen.
> 
> But in the current environment the chances of gold going to $540 is about as likely as someone finding a pure gold asteroid, dragging it into the earths orbit, and shooting golden nuggets onto the planet...




If Gold happens to reach $540 in next one year then I would go back as a bonded labour, sell my European car, house, liquidate all investment and the cash will buy gold bullions . It is like man is mortal. Every one will die so prediction is right- only who knows when the date will be.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

bean said:


> It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
> The POG???  may well fall
> The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.




Sorry bean, I don't see gold stocks being _as_ affected by general market weakness as they have shown in the past. In the first route we had stocks like SBM & AVO hitting prices like 38c & 1.28. This latest weakness has seen them come off a bit but not as bad as the general market; in fact SBM is back to near it's highs. 

Looks like a new phase is starting with gold leading and stocks will have to play catch up if they don't follow. Once the last effort by the CB's and currency jockeys fails ie the latest trend is to proclaim the US dollar is oversold & a buy, then the currency of last resort, gold, will be the only game in town.

Put it this way, if you were looking at parking your depreciating US dollars somewhere else where would you put them? The Euro economy is probably in more trouble than the US? Japan is still a basket case?

Possibly later this year we could see a slingshot effect for the AU price of gold as the Aussie dollar comes under selling pressure also - US POG up at the same time as the AU POG up due to $AU 'correcting' lower at the same time as the US$.



CamKawa said:


> Sounds to me like you are making trouble.
> 
> If the market crashes the POG may well fall in sympathy as we have seen previously but by significantly less. Gold may be sold off in a flight-to-cash as investors struggle to meet margin calls. If you want to be 100% safe then go 100% cash and take hit on a low return. I still reckon gold is the best investment in the market at the moment.




This concept has never seemed right to me, and the data does not confirm that people invested in the general market have to sell their gold positions to meet obligations elswhere. In fact there seems to be an inverse correlation if anything. All the same, it now appears to be the one asset that holds it's value in comparison with ?? well nearly everything these days. 

Supply is generally being constrained now eg NEM ann, so maybe it's time to allocate more of the portfolio to the physical as individual gold co's disappoint over production?


----------



## GreatPig

Here's my chart of the GOLD stock in A$ (per tenth oz).

Could potentially form a head and shoulders top now, but then I said that back in November too and naturally got proven wrong! 

GP


----------



## CamKawa

Uncle Festivus said:


> This concept has never seemed right to me, and the data does not confirm that people invested in the general market have to sell their gold positions to meet obligations elswhere.



Have a look at your own chart around about the 22nd of Jan where DJIA touches the X axsis. See the big hole punched in the POG?


Uncle Festivus said:


> Supply is generally being constrained now eg NEM ann, so maybe it's time to allocate more of the portfolio to the physical as individual gold co's disappoint over production?



I think that's the excuse the media trott out when they can't think of a good reason for the price going up. Indian's making more jewerly and dipps in production should in theory affect the price but it's investors that are the major force driving the POG at moment.


Uncle Festivus said:


> Supply is generally being constrained now eg NEM ann, so maybe it's time to allocate more of the portfolio to the physical as individual gold co's disappoint over production?



I wouldn't do that. If you buy gold jewellery you maybe paying a 200+% mark-up just for the design of the piece and then you have a insurance cost and security issues.  If you buy a bar or coins when it comes time sell the question of contamination may come up.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Yeah, but where is it headed itha? Got a hundred bucks if you tell me....






Kauri said:


> Hows about $914-$919 short-term..
> Chirp
> .........Kauri





 nbut where to next???    
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## explod

explod said:


> A drop to $730 US could occur and the uptrend would still be intact.
> 
> Chart coutesy The Privateer Newsletter




But I think (only think, for the sceptics) that it is more likely to hit the top of the trend line.

Where is that?????


----------



## cuttlefish

thats the way!


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> lol Looking forward to the day when traded goods (including USD) have a default pricing in Oz.
> 
> The greenback dropped against gold today, now trading at 1.12 milli Oz.  The AUD is up to .975 milli Oz today.
> 
> 
> BHP is up .76 milli Oz today on strong copper price which rose to 3.86 milli Oz in london trade overnight.
> 
> 
> A schooner thanks ... that'll be 4.50 milli Oz cheers mate.  Oh I've only got dollars do you take those?




Just had to look back a bit.   Now have we inflation in gold too, hows that work


----------



## ithatheekret

Whiskers said:


> There's that CRASH word again!
> 
> I'm leaning the other way, bean. With the BoE now cutting rates with the US to stave off recession and Europe resisting but probably following suite sooner or later, I see the market holding about it's current levels before pushing on later.
> 
> I did think POG had potential to retrace more than it did a month or two ago, but I'm more optermistic that a world wide recession is being avoided and demand will remain strong for gold given now that Silver, Platinium, Palladium and even Rhodium have followed gold to these levels . I'm also not sure that the supply side is positioned to meet demand for gold in that scenario.




Don't lean to far , you'll end up flat on your face in this climate . The US _is already in a recession _ , they're just having a hard time admiting it . Unfortunately those on the ground will see further distress , you see they have too many houses and not enough owners now and there has _never _been a housing slump without a recession , no amount of spin will stop it . Price and value are two completely different subjects , price can be attributed to speculation , value is a fundamental problem yet to be solved . The fat lady ain't singing , she's screaming , there's a big difference .

Europes growth is slowing to a grind and England , the bastion of finance , is in the poop , the great clearing house is about to be cleared out .

When they finally admit they are in a recession and all start whistling the same tune , it will be too late and the moment they do , I'll buy the dips to hang on to .


----------



## cuttlefish

> Just had to look back a bit. Now have we inflation in gold too, hows that work




far too complex question for a friday night lol!

can we have inflation in gold?   Will the price of a schooner change in gold terms, has it changed historically?  Wonder what a schooner would have cost in gold back in 1955. What was the average weekly wage in gold terms in 1965 - 1 oz per week? more? less?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CamKawa said:


> I think that's the excuse the media trott out when they can't think of a good reason for the price going up. Indian's making more jewerly and dipps in production should in theory affect the price but it's investors that are the major force driving the POG at moment.




NEM is the second biggest gold co in the world. It's not replacing reserves. A similar story for other companies & countries, but countries like China taking up some of the production/supply slack.

Jewellery has little influence on the _direct_ price of gold - it's a price taker. The LBMA trades the equivalent of the worlds total annual production in 5 days.

http://www.galmarley.com/framesets/fs_trading_physical_gold_faqs.htm




CamKawa said:


> I wouldn't do that. If you buy gold jewellery you maybe paying a 200+% mark-up just for the design of the piece and then you have a insurance cost and security issues.  If you buy a bar or coins when it comes time sell the question of contamination may come up.





No jewellery, only bullion and coin (says me sitting here looking like Mr T

http://www.narniaweb.com/forum/uploads/kaleb70/82329_Mr_T.jpg ). 

Yes, there are storage costs.
Contamination? There are standards for bullion eg purity 4 X 9's


----------



## explod

A close at golds current level will be a new all time high on a weekly basis.  The solid recovery from corections (from a media frenzy last weekend) indicates the PPT have lost the game and against the fundamantal shambles of the financials gold is about to go bananas.

Even my wife has been speaking to me nicely of late.

Just my humble opinion.


----------



## explod

Gold appears to be trading beyond the normal Friday close, anyone ????


----------



## CamKawa

Uncle Festivus said:


> Contamination? There are standards for bullion eg purity 4 X 9's



Yes contamination. There may be a question of how the gold coin/bar has been stored. Has it been altered intentionally or unintentionally when stored privately?


----------



## refined silver

explod said:


> A close at golds current level will be a new all time high on a weekly basis.  The solid recovery from corections (from a media frenzy last weekend) indicates the PPT have lost the game and against the fundamantal shambles of the financials gold is about to go bananas.
> 
> Even my wife has been speaking to me nicely of late.
> 
> Just my humble opinion.




Posted On: Friday, February 08, 2008, 12:55:00 PM EST

Gold Makes New All Time High In Euro Terms

     Author: Dan Norcini










Dear Friends,

Today Gold made a new all time high when viewed in Euro terms for the London PM Fix. As you have read here for some time now, gold is trading as a currency and when it enters that realm it begins moving higher when measured in terms of every major currency. We saw a good example of that yesterday when the Euro was sharply lower while gold moved higher even as the Dollar showed broad based strength. The implications of this are quite clear – investors world wide are losing confidence in paper currencies because they understand that the response of Central Bankers to the credit derivative fiasco is ultimately going to erode the purchasing power of their respective national currencies. 

It is important to keep in mind whenever you read predictions by newsletter writers or analysts calling for the demise of gold that the vast majority of them are only looking at gold in dollar terms and have completely ignored the fact that gold is an international currency. Investors from around the world view gold in terms of their own domestic currency price – since it is not just US investors who are buying gold, to overlook the price of gold in other currency terms is simply foolish. After all, when is the last time that a European buyer of gold called to get a price quote on the yellow metal and asked for that quote in Dollar terms??? Some of these US based “experts” need to enlarge their horizons. When a market is breaking out into new all time highs in various currency terms, it is a pretty amazing stunt to proclaim that it has topped out!

For you masochists out there who love trading silver, you will also note that silver broke out today in terms of its daily London Fix in Euro terms to a new high. The breakout from the consolidation formation that had been forming for nearly two years is now complete with the chart suggesting further gains are in store for the metal. Of course it did not hurt things any that platinum continued moving relentlessly closer to the $1900 level and palladium set another new yearly high above $440. Copper also roared higher on the news of shrinking stockpiles at the LME. 

Dan


----------



## refined silver

View attachment 1 February0807Gold1230pmCST.pdf


----------



## refined silver

try again!!!!


----------



## ithatheekret

A friend sent me a link to Seeking Alpha after we had many a word on the sly old French Fox at the ECB , mostly in relation to my opined views on his stoking of the M3 fire coals to enliven the flames of inflation , which are licking at most European wallets and purses . The stagflation arguement well set in now as the 2% boundary has been well overshot , this is a creation of M3 policy .

http://seekingalpha.com/article/63719-gold-traders-see-through-ecbs-smoke-and-mirrors


*Gold Traders See Through ECB’s ‘Smoke and Mirrors’
*

European Central Bank chief, Jean “Tricky” Trichet, likes to operate behind a veil of “Smoke and Mirrors” in managing the Euro zone’s monetary policy, which is designed to fool most people, most of the time. Most importantly, “Tricky” Trichet, has fueled the fastest growth in the Euro M3 money supply in history, running at three times the rate of the ECB’s original guidelines, deemed consistent with low inflation. 

So it shouldn’t have been a surprise to learn that inflation in the Euro zone hit an all-time high of 3.2% in January, and far above the ECB’s inflation target of 2 percent. Euro zone producer price inflation picked up to an annual 4.3% in December, led by higher food and energy costs. Trichet and his band of propaganda artists have given plenty of lip service to fighting inflation in recent months, but behind the veil of “Smoke and Mirrors”, haven’t lifted a finger to put empty words into action. 

“We are ready to act pre-emptively, if longer-term inflation expectations threaten to persistently deviate from our inflation goal,” warned Bundesbank chief Axel Weber in the Jan 25th edition of the German newspaper Boersen-Zeitung. On Jan 24th, Bank of France chief Christian Noyer said, “On European interest rates, our principle objective is price stability, our duty is to defend purchasing power,” he said. 

Yet under the leadership of “Tricky” Trichet, the purchasing power of the Euro in “hard money” terms, measured against the price of gold, has collapsed by 90% over the past four years. Speaking to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan 24th, “Tricky” Trichet told central bankers that under the capital market system it was natural for risks to emerge, but central bankers’ main job is to solidly anchor inflation expectations. “There is one needle in our compass and it is price stability.” 

“What is extremely important is to offer as steady grounds as possible. First, price stability and then solidly anchor inflation expectations. If risks did not materialize you would not be living in a market economy, you would be living in the Soviet Union,” Trichet explained. Yet 2-weeks later, Trichet was shifting his vigilant stance against inflation, and leaving the door ajar for ECB rate cuts in the months ahead. 

On Feb 7th, the ECB kept its repo rate steady at 4.00%, but Trichet placed equal stress the downside risks to the Euro zone economy, on par with worries over inflation. “Uncertainty about the prospect for economic growth is unusually high and the risk surrounding the outlook for economic activity lies on the downside. Looking ahead, the slowdown in the economies of some of the euro area major trading partners is likely to have an impact on euro area real GDP growth in 2008,” he said.

For the past few years, the ECB has pursued a policy of “Asset Targeting” adjusting its repo rate in baby steps, and in-line with the direction of the Euro zone stock markets, such as the benchmark German DAX Index. In the aftermath of the German DAX’s sudden 15% devaluation, traders expect the ECB to follow suit, with a small round of rate cuts to 3.50% in the months ahead. 


The yield on the German 2-year schatz has tumbled to 3.25%, far below the ECB’s 4.00% repo rate, another strong signal that the ECB will eventually abandon it empty “war of words” against inflation, and exercise the “Trichet Put” by lowering the repo rate. Very few traders in the gold market or German schatz, believe the rhetoric of Greek central banker Nicholas Garganas who warned on Feb 1st, “Our monetary policy is not led on what the markets expect. I’m very concerned about the high inflation rate. Inflation risks remain on the upside,” he said. 

Garganas said the ECB has noted that risks to the Euro zone economy were on the downside, but “Our baseline scenario has not changed. The impact of the slowdown in the US is to some extent offset by continued strength in emerging market economies,” he said. At the same time, strong demand for commodities has contributed to unprecedented inflationary forces that are pushing global prices up.

Commodity prices, as measured by the Dow Jones AIG Index, in euro terms, are soaring to all-time highs, led by corn, soybeans, rice, wheat, sugar, platinum, gold, silver, and high energy prices. Tracking the general direction of commodity prices, Euro zone factory prices are 4.7% higher from a year ago, so an easier ECB money policy, would simply generate faster inflation, and bury the Euro zone economy deeper into the dreaded “Stagflation Trap.” 

“Tricky” Trichet is well aware of the inflation risks of slashing interest rates to rescue the stock markets. In a speech delivered on April 23, 2002, he said, “My feeling is that we should remain extremely cautious about it, because it would be like opening Pandora’s Box, if we start setting our key policy rates according to asset price changes. Not only could large swings, misalignments and bubbles of assets prices endanger price stability, which is the main objective of most central banks, but also they could impinge upon financial stability,” he added.

Yet global traders expect “Tricky” Trichet to eventually show his weak hand, and follow Fed chief Ben “B-52” Bernanke, who has pumped tens of billions of dollars into the banking system since August, desperately trying to place a “safety net” under the US stock markets. “B-52” Ben used a chain saw to cut the US fed funds rate by a hefty 0.75%, the biggest single rate cut in more than 23-years, after global stock markets melted own, and lost $7.5 trillion of value last month. 

"Easy” Al Greenspan had a magic formula for rescue operations during times of financial distress. From the stock market crash of 1987, to the S&L crisis of the early 1990’s, to the Asian crisis and the collapse of LTCM, to the feared Y2k crisis, to the bursting of the tech stock bubble, Greenspan simply injected massive doses of monetary morphine to bailout over-zealous speculators in the stock market

Global traders must see thru the ECB’s game of “Smoke and Mirrors” designed to fool most people, most of the time.” Follow the money, and not the ECB’s empty rhetoric and propaganda that fly across the newswires each day. And remember, gold knows what no one knows. “At some point, you have to choose between trusting the natural stability of Gold, and he honesty and intelligence of members of the government. With due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for Gold,” said George Bernard Shaw in 1928.


----------



## Whiskers

ithatheekret said:


> Don't lean to far , you'll end up flat on your face in this climate .




No mate, I still have both feet firmly planted... just tracking a little in that dfirection. I have a pretty good side step. 



> The US _is already in a recession _ , they're just having a hard time admiting it .




Yeah, maybe but I think the main issue with gold in the next year or two is going to be a shift in the supply curve. Even presuming no real increase in demand it is looking like reduced supply will maintain current price levels in the short term. 

Market failure seems to becoming endemic to the US in particular and has significantly unbalanced the world economy and the true medium to longer term supply and demand balance for many things. 

From a commodity perspective I understand mineral companies already consider China and India bigger markets than the US and Europe combined. I think it was BHP that stated that again on the Sunday program.

So while the US is certainly a constant source of diheria for much of the world I expect a change of government come November, as in Aus to a more green, supply side and Marxian influence by government which I think will create a better societal environment and economic conditions and be more compatable with the emerging growth engines of China and India. 

In short I would not be too surprised with some volitality in the gold price while all the uncertainty unraveles and more production gears up.

But as I have said before I think people are probably suffering a little hypochondria over the US economy and under-estimating the capacity of countries like Aus, China and India to mitigate the impact of any adverse effects.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> No mate, I still have both feet firmly planted... just tracking a little in that dfirection. I have a pretty good side step.
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, maybe but I think the main issue with gold in the next year or two is going to be a shift in the supply curve. Even presuming no real increase in demand it is looking like reduced supply will maintain current price levels in the short term.
> 
> Not sure what you are saying here on supply however the price rise of late has been because of high demand not as has been in the past few years the falling dollar.
> 
> Market failure seems to becoming endemic to the US in particular and has significantly unbalanced the world economy and the true medium to longer term supply and demand balance for many things.
> 
> Not sure of your angle here either, the Dow in fact has fallen much less than Asian and Euro markets.  Of all that is collapsing around them the Dow has held up well.  For how much longer will be interesting
> 
> From a commodity perspective I understand mineral companies already consider China and India bigger markets than the US and Europe combined. I think it was BHP that stated that again on the Sunday program.
> 
> I dont' believe the markets are relevant to the gold price anymore, it si all about currency values
> 
> So while the US is certainly a constant source of diheria for much of the world I expect a change of government come November, as in Aus to a more green, supply side and Marxian influence by government which I think will create a better societal environment and economic conditions and be more compatable with the emerging growth engines of China and India.
> 
> The 10 trillion of US debt will take many years of many governments to correct the problems in that neck of the woods.
> 
> In short I would not be too surprised with some volitality in the gold price while all the uncertainty unraveles and more production gears up.
> 
> There will be some volatility all right, huge ups and downs at very much higher levels.   Well worth lokking at the gold chart action of 1979/80, but that will be chjilds play to whats coming now
> 
> But as I have said before I think people are probably suffering a little hypochondria over the US economy and under-estimating the capacity of countries like Aus, China and India to mitigate the impact of any adverse effects.




You call it hypocondria,  hickup, gulp, er. yer gotta be jocking, the US is so debt ridden with a GDP that relies on continuing debt to survive that the carcase is all but rotting away.

Anyway, just my 2cents on a Sunday evening.   Roulette was great today, amen


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> You call it hypocondria,  hickup, gulp, er. yer gotta be jocking, the US is so debt ridden with a GDP that relies on continuing debt to survive that the carcase is all but rotting away.
> 
> Anyway, just my 2cents on a Sunday evening.   Roulette was great today, amen




 Maybe my phraseology wasen't the best. 

No question the US economy is fundamently RS. What I was trying to say is that I think people are exaggerating the significance of the US in the total scheme of things based on the past. I think particularly Aus and our particular circumstances with China and India will cope better than many poeple estimate. 

By market failure I mean in economic terms, not just share markets, they haven't got the right mix of gov regulation and capitalism. They seem to bungle from one issue to another, the latest being the poor oversight of the mortgage industry. Retirement pensions and health care are another couple of looming issues. A change of government should slow the rate of self distruction though.

Shift in the supply curve: What I mean is that I think the cost of production and other political and industrial issues will reduce the supply of gold coming onto the market, so the supply curve will shift to the left causing price rise pressure even if demand doesn't increase. If the demand does increase, the shift in the supply curve will exponentially excellerate price.

A brief summery of supply curve here:
http://images.google.com.au/imgres?...rve&um=1&start=3&sa=X&oi=images&ct=image&cd=3


----------



## ithatheekret

There's something else that's different too , this time Asian Banks , not referring to the Japanese banks here , are cashed up . They learnt from the 90's , Japan kept on printing and hasn't stopped . A look over the majority of Chinese banks shows their ledgers in far better shape , capital wise , than their western counterparts .

Any bank caught holding the former AAA issues will find they've either dropped to AA or A , yet we still are not clear on the values , as the same entities have rerated them . Bonds were on the exit last week , the week before and so on .

I keep hearing the same sickening cue card rhetoric from nearly every so called analyst ( which desperately need rerating themselves ) , " if you can stand some pain look long term " , we need to rephrase this , because it really means , " if you can afford to lose value on an asset in terms of pricing and wait for that value and maybe a premium to return " . That's what they really mean .

Those rerated issues , dependant on which rating is gets placed , will see further writedowns , it will be in the billions though and all with a minimum in double digits , it gets an A rating make it the high doubles to triple digits .

That's still to come , it is in the process right now , but we won't see those figures for a little while longer , then there's the resets , there to come also .
Many spinners would have us all believe the bad news of the bad news is already out there .

Bollocks to that , the SEC has only just started to inform banks of their need to co-operate with enquiries , you see there's this thing called massive fraud and deception to be accounted for yet . If not that then the only other plausible excuse is negligence . Either outcome will see legal action that will take years and years to see a point of closure reached . There will be a huge reduction in the funds sector and that's not a maybe , it too is yet to come .

Add to all this the matter of nationalism that has only started to re-emerge and we will see an entirely new financial sector with a whole new list of meaningless reforms paraded out for the markets . With all the old promises renewed taboot , in short more spin , from a different angle .

The laugh I had was when it was spruiked that manufacturing can make up for any slack in the ISM as it fell to 41.9 for Jan . That's a massive contraction from the previous 54.4 in Dec and the December numbers looked bogus anyway .

No it's going to take investors a little longer to get over the last round of inaccurracies dished out . The data flows that were used to flood markets are now in question also , that lays squarely at the feet of the cash for comment programs ............ and they would know it too .

These type of events in markets always see a line up of litigation and incarceration , some of which will be scapegoats , a small portion will be those directly responsible , but only those who no longer have friends and are considered a contagian all on their own . No-one wants to be associated with infectious persons .

All these events will move the markets further , and that pain story will be bought out again , but who needs pain when you can find comfort .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> There's something else that's different too , this time Asian Banks , not referring to the Japanese banks here , are cashed up . They learnt from the 90's , Japan kept on printing and hasn't stopped . A look over the majority of Chinese banks shows their ledgers in far better shape , capital wise , than their western counterparts .
> 
> Any bank caught holding the former AAA issues will find they've either dropped to AA or A , yet we still are not clear on the values , as the same entities have rerated them . Bonds were on the exit last week , the week before and so on .
> 
> I keep hearing the same sickening cue card rhetoric from nearly every so called analyst ( which desperately need rerating themselves ) , " if you can stand some pain look long term " , we need to rephrase this , because it really means , " if you can afford to lose value on an asset in terms of pricing and wait for that value and maybe a premium to return " . That's what they really mean .
> 
> Those rerated issues , dependant on which rating is gets placed , will see further writedowns , it will be in the billions though and all with a minimum in double digits , it gets an A rating make it the high doubles to triple digits .
> 
> That's still to come , it is in the process right now , but we won't see those figures for a little while longer , then there's the resets , there to come also .
> Many spinners would have us all believe the bad news of the bad news is already out there .
> 
> Bollocks to that , the SEC has only just started to inform banks of their need to co-operate with enquiries , you see there's this thing called massive fraud and deception to be accounted for yet . If not that then the only other plausible excuse is negligence . Either outcome will see legal action that will take years and years to see a point of closure reached . There will be a huge reduction in the funds sector and that's not a maybe , it too is yet to come .
> 
> Add to all this the matter of nationalism that has only started to re-emerge and we will see an entirely new financial sector with a whole new list of meaningless reforms paraded out for the markets . With all the old promises renewed taboot , in short more spin , from a different angle .
> 
> The laugh I had was when it was spruiked that manufacturing can make up for any slack in the ISM as it fell to 41.9 for Jan . That's a massive contraction from the previous 54.4 in Dec and the December numbers looked bogus anyway .
> 
> No it's going to take investors a little longer to get over the last round of inaccurracies dished out . The data flows that were used to flood markets are now in question also , that lays squarely at the feet of the cash for comment programs ............ and they would know it too .
> 
> These type of events in markets always see a line up of litigation and incarceration , some of which will be scapegoats , a small portion will be those directly responsible , but only those who no longer have friends and are considered a contagian all on their own . No-one wants to be associated with infectious persons .
> 
> All these events will move the markets further , and that pain story will be bought out again , but who needs pain when you can find comfort .





the Sunday Telegraph states that "there is still *300 BLN USD* of bad debt out there and *Japan could be hiding most of it*." He notes that the Nikkei has crumbled lately and *Japanese banks are leading the slide.* Evans-Pritchard writes that the "nagging fear is that Japan"s lenders - the conduit for the world's greatest stash of savings - have taken on a far bigger chunk of mortgage securities, collateralised loans obligations and other exotica from America"s structured credit boom than they have yet revealed." He goes on to say that the world might find out just how much soon enough when the *banks report at the end of March*. The article quotes Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas as saying: "We know from Bank of Japan"s lending survey that the banks are *already tightening hard, so something is brewing*. Right now, we are in the lull before the second storm in global markets, and Asia is going to be the source of the nasty surprises." Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist for Goldman Sachs is quoted as saying that "recession is a clear and present danger in Japan, the leading *indicators are deteriorating very sharply.* Inventory is piling up at a rapid pace. There are clear signs of deceleration in exports of steel and semi-conductors to China." He added that the *BOJ might have to start easing by the middle of the year*.
   The article is also bearish on China"s outlook for the remainder of 2008 noting that Hong Liang, Beijing economist for Goldman Sachs, is not much more hopeful about China's prospects this year. "The combination of a US slowdown and monetary tightening in China is never welcome, but the accumulated problems have to be resolved this year," she said. Ambrose-Pritchard added that China"s mercantilist drive for export share is a double-edged strategy. The trade surplus has risen at 80 BLN USD a year, increasing tenfold since 2002 while the economy has merely doubled. The result is that China is dependent on the US economy and private banks are slashing China"s growth forecasts deeper that the World Bank that recently cut China"s growth forecast from 10.8% to 9.6%


----------



## ithatheekret

Well ........... the Swissie is going inthe opposite direction to POG , I wonder who they're bailing out 


PS..... I might go close that Cable bet


----------



## Uncle Festivus

For a minute there I thought it was the  Imminent & Severe Correction thread .

An interesting thing might be unfolding for gold stocks. The XJO down the usual 80 odd points today, yet my gold portfolio up 3% so far today. 

  Could be the start of a reversal of trend and dislocation of 1st tier gold stocks from the rest of the market.


----------



## Kauri

Looks like she may be near decision time????  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> For a minute there I thought it was the  Imminent & Severe Correction thread .
> 
> An interesting thing might be unfolding for gold stocks. The XJO down the usual 80 odd points today, yet my gold portfolio up 3% so far today.
> 
> Could be the start of a reversal of trend and dislocation of 1st tier gold stocks from the rest of the market.




Well they are inextricably (cant'spell?) linked.  As you know well the real key to gold will be the realisation that paper money in the coming times will not deliver value.  As a currency that will fall to gold.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Well they are inextricably (cant'spell?) linked.  As you know well the real key to gold will be the realisation that paper money in the coming times will not deliver value.  As a currency that will fall to gold.




Hi Explod,
Totally off topic but....spell checking.....I use Firefox browser with the Australian dictionary add in.....

inextricably = correct


----------



## ithatheekret

Getting pushed about , would be surprised if Asian trade gave it some sort of support around the current . Thought I'd punt it , I've got a 928/29/30 res to push through yet though .

926 is a profit ..........


----------



## Kauri

too small to play the range... but will break... eventually??  but up... or down???   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yah , took $120 and said fkuvery muchly , still prefer the real thing . NYtime  is where I'll play the game .


----------



## Kauri

QA fluttery on the 5min.. interesting to see if it flies..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Looks good like that hey ..........


----------



## barrett

yep sure is decision time, on the 4-hourly, 5-11 Feb
....... wedge on declining volume.  Some fireworks coming, whichever way it goes.  
Now I'm going to watch 'Apollo 11: the untold story', they reckon they saw a ufo... on the moon.. or something.


----------



## Miner

*Gold bargains emerge *
By Troy Schwensen   



PORTFOLIO POINT: *The equity market sell-off has ignored improving figures from some gold miners, creating opportunities for astute investors*. 


Australian gold miners have had good news for investors in the reporting season, with quarterly results showing a 25% increase in profitability in the past year. These improvements have been largely attributable to a rising Australian dollar gold price, which has exceeded the inflationary cost pressures of the booming mining industry. 

While operating costs continue to rise 5.7%, the average realised gold price improved by 11%. The price of gold in Australian dollars presently exceeds $1023 an ounce, which is 27% higher than the average realised price for the December 2007 quarter. Expect this to translate into ongoing improvements to operating profitability during the current March quarter.


nAustralia’s major domestic gold producers 
 ------ December quarter 2006 ------  ------ December quarter 2007 ------ 
Company Cash 
cost ($A) Realised 
price ($A) Cash 
margin  Cash 
cost ($A) Realised 
price ($A) Cash 
margin 
Newcrest Mining 384 704 83%  314 870 177% 
Perseverance 458 780 70%  587 869 48% 
St Barbara 474 785 66%  518 867 67% 
Equigold 383 691 80%  381 754 98% 
Dominion Mining 335 734 119%  351 822 134% 
Resolute Mining * 756 689 -9%  798 677 -15% 
Average 465 731 68%  491.5 810 85% 
* Ravenswood (Australian operation)     

The few exceptions to this will be the companies that have maintained their hedging commitments where forward sales agreements have locked in lower future gold prices. By hedging, these companies have effectively negated many of the inflationary protection benefits offered by higher gold prices. Newcrest Mining in 2007 made the tough decision to close out its hedge book, which involved a large capital raising – more than $2 billion. Many other domestic gold producers, including Lihir Gold, have followed a similar path and are now reaping the benefits. 

The recent fallout from equity markets has seen many Australian gold producers sold off despite these improving fundamentals. _*This has created buying opportunities for those investors astute enough to recognise the selling irrationality. *_With equity markets continuing to look increasingly shaky, expect more opportunities to present themselves over the coming weeks and months.

Troy Schwensen is a research analyst at GoldNerds.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Well that`s interesting Miner because i was looking at the Superpit in which Newmont have a stake and i came across this article.Here is an excerpt and the link for a read.This may be a warning for some o.t. or labour cuts but a few bold statements nonetheless.



> *Newmont considers Australian mine asset sale*
> 
> Jamie Freed, Sydney
> February 11, 2008
> 
> US GOLDMINER *Newmont Mining has flagged the possibility of selling off most **of its Australian assets* after it conducts a company-wide review this year.
> 
> In a presentation to US analysts on Friday, chief executive Dick O'Brien said the company had yet to decide the fate of its high-cost operations, the majority of which are in Australia.
> 
> "*If we look at our high cost assets around the world* … other than Phoenix (in Nevada), we're talking about Australia," he said.
> 
> Newmont produced 1.3 million ounces of gold from its Australian and New Zealand operations last year at a *cost of $US496 an ounce*. This year, after the sale of its Pajingo mine in Queensland, it expects to produce 1.1 million ounces at a *cost of $US585 to $US625 an ounce from Australian and New Zealand operations.*
> "Those are the portfolio of assets we have that we could hive off pretty easily if we decided to do it," Mr O'Brien said. "I'm not sure that we will. But that's the evaluation process that we need to stand for in 2008."


----------



## Kauri

have added a pyramiddie to my short possie on gold... for better or worse..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## CamKawa

POG is still hanging around not doing much.


----------



## Kauri

CamKawa said:


> POG is still hanging around not doing much.




 Fairly roaring around on the 5min chart..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Miner

Gold has shot down tonight in Perth (mornng in NY  Feb 12 2008, Current New York Time: 8:06:10) - see attached.
Does it imply share price will go up tomorrow morning (Wednesday) ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Is that a sponge effect .................  ?


----------



## Kauri

Buffett has ridden in on his white horse and slain the fire breathing recessionary dragon..( although really he has only carved off a chunk of prime rump and left the stinking carcass for others to deal with)..
*Rumours* of a European bank in financial pressure/strife..
and data showing India not buying gold ( still getting trotted out)..
 so down gold goes...   
  for now...
   Slanty
.............Kauri


----------



## wayneL

How does one start one of these rumours? ::


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> How does one start one of these rumours? ::




It wasn't me... this is the culprit!!!


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> Is that a sponge effect .................  ?




No, more like the PPP's last straw now.   Price weakness purported to be due to IMF pending gold sales as prompted by the wonderful G7.   And it has certainly had some effect.

What immediately and always follows is the Wall Street chop, shown here and timed to coincide with the anticipated (due to interest rate cuts) dollar weakness of the last few hours.   Lunch time NY now will show further weakness but before the close in a few hours look for gold to strengthen.   The duped will be selling positions and the smart money will be back in the next day or so.

Have observed this scenario so many times in the last few years that it is nearly boring.

An enthusiastic stallion always needs a good shakeout before the next legup.


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> How does one start one of these rumours? ::




not one to sow rumours... so here is one that is really really true.. I thunk.. not even a whiff of conspiracy about tit.. unless of course he is anti the fabled PPT..  

Treasury"s Paulson has been brutally blunt today warning that the worst in subprime mortgages and resets is just beginning. Data collected on resets shows that the bulk are maturing this quarter but will still a number of large resets due on Q2 as well that is likely to weigh on the economy.

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

here's one rumour backed up... plurry PPT has exended its reach to India... it seems...   

Imports reported by the Bombay Bullion Association, dropped from 62 tonnes in Jan '07 to just 5 tonnes in Jan '08.


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:


> not one to sow rumours... so here is one that is really really true.. I thunk.. not even a whiff of conspiracy about tit.. unless of course he is anti the fabled PPT..
> 
> Treasury"s Paulson has been brutally blunt today warning that the worst in subprime mortgages and resets is just beginning. Data collected on resets shows that the bulk are maturing this quarter but will still a number of large resets due on Q2 as well that is likely to weigh on the economy.
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Well excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor. Has he been drinking and had an acute bout of honesty?

_Donnerwetter!_


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> here's one rumour backed up... plurry PPT has exended its reach to India... it seems...
> 
> Imports reported by the Bombay Bullion Association, dropped from 62 tonnes in Jan '07 to just 5 tonnes in Jan '08.




Looks like that may be a good thing for the price of gold.  If they stop buying altogether maybe it will go to the big US ton.    seems to be a lot of these stories the last week or so.   Worth (not a fig)reading John Nadler of Kitco, must be lookin for an honarary on the PPT board.


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> Well excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor. Has he been drinking and had an acute bout of honesty?
> 
> _Donnerwetter!_




PPT-- Paulson---Goldman Sachs ex boss--- guess who won't be invited to the Christmas pixx-up this year...  

  Oooops
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

the heineken ashy indicates a bit of a rally is due here... time for a nanny nap..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> The International Monetary Fund should sell $6.6bn worth of gold and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets as part of a strategy to put its finances on a sound, long-term footing, an expert panel recommended on Wednesday.
> 
> The panel, which included Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, estimated that the sale of 400 tonnes of gold would create an endowment fund that would earn the IMF $195m a year in additional revenues after inflation. The IMF holds 3,217m tonnes of gold in total.




Now kiddies, the _real_ story so far.....

As the esteemed group of money shufflers stood and stared at the edge of the abyss, there was much hand wringing and wailing, each pondering out loud what shall we do to stem the contagion. There was a faint voice from a group of seven which exclaimed "why don't we do what we always do - tell the masses that we will sell our gold to pay our debts".

Yes, they all cried, we shall create the impression that all is well & good in the world cause we have all this gold to sell, and shall distribute the proceeds to the worlds needy. The needy in this case being the money shuffling banks, who had taken a good hiding from adding too many noughts to their fractional reserves, only to be told by a small group of house owners in the US that they wern't able to pay back those noughts afterall, good bye, see you later, thank you very much, the party was great while it lasted!

So off the group excitedly went, eager to get to THE VAULT where all their gold had been kept. As the huge metal doors swung open the excitement turned to amazement. Instead of a gleaming mass of useless gold there was but only a handfull of gold bars, and even they had a sticker on them saying "sold - hold for pick-up".

The mood turned to anger as each accused the other of not being truthfull about how much gold they actually had. As it turned out, the money shufflers were not only hopeless at money shuffling, but were also bad at gold shuffling.

The moral of the story? The transfer of wealth is now excellerating, and gold will be prone to larger swings as the global forces involved asert their financial muscle - who shall prevail? 

The IMF's 400t is chicken feed in this climate, it will be easily absorbed. 

Buy the dips?


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Now kiddies, the _real_ story so far.....
> 
> As the esteemed group of money shufflers stood and stared at the edge of the abyss, there was much hand wringing and wailing, each pondering out loud what shall we do to stem the contagion. There was a faint voice from a group of seven which exclaimed "why don't we do what we always do - tell the masses that we will sell our gold to pay our debts".
> 
> Yes, they all cried, we shall create the impression that all is well & good in the world cause we have all this gold to sell, and shall distribute the proceeds to the worlds needy. The needy in this case being the money shuffling banks, who had taken a good hiding from adding too many noughts to their fractional reserves, only to be told by a small group of house owners in the US that they wern't able to pay back those noughts afterall, good bye, see you later, thank you very much, the party was great while it lasted!
> 
> So off the group excitedly went, eager to get to THE VAULT where all their gold had been kept. As the huge metal doors swung open the excitement turned to amazement. Instead of a gleaming mass of useless gold there was but only a handfull of gold bars, and even they had a sticker on them saying "sold - hold for pick-up".
> 
> The mood turned to anger as each accused the other of not being truthfull about how much gold they actually had. As it turned out, the money shufflers were not only hopeless at money shuffling, but were also bad at gold shuffling.
> 
> The moral of the story? The transfer of wealth is now excellerating, and gold will be prone to larger swings as the global forces involved asert their financial muscle - who shall prevail?
> 
> The IMF's 400t is chicken feed in this climate, it will be easily absorbed.
> 
> Buy the dips?




 the full article... maybe check the volumes of traded gold... buy the dips... sell the rallys... as they happen... for whatever reason..



> Financial Times
> Jan 31, 2007
> by By Krishna Guha in Washington
> The International Monetary Fund should sell gold worth $6.6bn (£3.4bn) and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets as part of a strategy to put its finances on a sound, long-term footing, an *expert panel* recommended on Wednesday.
> 
> The experts also advised that the IMF should charge for the bilateral
> technical assistance it provides to countries, although they said
> arrangements should be made to ensure poor countries continued to benefit from IMF help.
> 
> The *panel included Alan Greenspan*, former chairman of the US Federal
> Reserve, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. It estimated that the sale of 400 tonnes of gold would create an endowment fund that would earn the IMF $195m a year in additional revenues after inflation.
> 
> The IMF holds 3,217 tonnes of gold in total. The panel recommended that the world ´s central banks reduce their planned gold sales - set out in an international accord - by an equivalent amount so as to offset the effect of the IMF sale on the world gold market.
> 
> The IMF faces long-term financial problems because its traditional source of revenue - profits on lending - has dried up as countries have paid back giant loans extended during financial crises.
> 
> The extra money is needed to help plug an estimated shortfall of $400m a year in the IMF ´s current income and expenses by 2010. The IMF is funding current activities in part by drawing on its reserves - not sustainable in the long run.
> 
> The panel recommends that the IMF put some of the quota money
> subscribed by IMF shareholder governments to work in capital markets.
> 
> This could involve very large sums, with the panel floating the idea of investing $30bn. It estimates that this could earn the IMF about $300m ayear after paying interest on the quota money to the governments providing it.
> 
> It suggests loosening the rules governing how the IMF invests its existing $9bn reserves in an attempt to boost its income.
> 
> Andrew Crockett, president of JPMorgan Chase International and chairmanof the panel, said it was no longer appropriate for the IMF to rely on profits from crisis lending to fund all its activities and said the proposed new financing model was better suited to what the IMF actually did today.
> 
> Some outside experts say the IMF should deal with its financial problems by cutting staff costs more aggressively rather than by raising revenues.
> 
> *Agreement on IMF gold sales will need to be approved by an 85 per cent
> majority of the IMF ´s shareholders and by the US Congress. *


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Is this hinting that the IMF is in a bit of a pickle also????

So we have the Dow up 200 odd on the Buffett news, where 1 of the 3 companies approached has already declined the offer; and gold down on news of the IMF possible sales? No firm data and yet???? Whipsaw yee haa


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Is this hinting that the IMF is in a bit of a pickle also????
> 
> So we have the Dow up 200 odd on the Buffett news, where 1 of the 3 companies approached has already declined the offer; and gold down on news of the IMF possible sales? No firm data and yet???? Whipsaw yee haa





 a pickle... if they quote Greenspan on their expert panel... I'd say a *tsukemonoki* is more approriate..  and gold down on possible sales.. semaphored to the public on 31 Jan... what's taken so long???


----------



## Kauri

interesting stage... wonder what the northern cousins will decide...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## CamKawa

Not happy Jan


----------



## CamKawa

Kauri said:


> interesting stage... wonder what the northern cousins will decide...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



I think it'll be a sell off. My only hope is that India starts to buy in now at around $900. Short of that it could fall to as low as, I don't know, $875?


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> I think it'll be a sell off. My only hope is that India starts to buy in now at around $900. Short of that it could fall to as low as, I don't know, $875?




Working gold on the short term is very difficult.  I have been following gold specifically for 5 years and would not attempt to trade it short term.  

A sell off to $875 would not be unreasonable but my view is that it should hold on the current level which is now a support area.   A look at the six month chart gives a clearer idea of gold's over all momentum.


----------



## So_Cynical

The low of 896 is inside the consolidation range....higher low than last time
05 Feb 889...Please enough with the panic attacks.


----------



## ithatheekret

How did your POG short go Kauri ? ......... saw 898 on the streamer .


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> A look at the six month chart gives a clearer idea of gold's over all momentum.



Yes I agree the momentum and fundamentals still look good. It's just that in the last month it's been on for young and old.


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> How did your POG short go Kauri ? ......... saw 898 on the streamer .




Heinekin ashy and my vinocators had me out at around $900... will wait and watch to see if it reloads..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Miner

*Gold demand revives as prices dip*


*Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:22pm IST * 

(Reuters) - India's gold market continued to see modest sales on Wednesday after price falls revived some demand the previous day,* but dealers said, most buyers were waiting for bigger falls.*

"There is _some_ buying interest as gold is trading below $900 an ounce level," said a dealer in a large private bank. "There were some sales yesterday also."

Demand has largely remained subdued, since a rally to all-time highs started late last year, and even the current wedding season has only sparked moderate sales.

But price falls could trigger good buying as weddings are expected throughout till the end of May, dealers say.

On Wednesday gold was down nearly 4 percent from its all time high level of $936.50 an ounce touched on Feb. 1. In the local market prices were still above the psychological 11,000 rupees per 10 grams.

A wholesaler in Hyderabad, Chanda Venkatesh, said bits of buying took place the previous day but now people were cautious as prices have continued to fall.

"Yesterday people bought medium quantities around $905 levels," Venkatesh said. "*They will come back to the market if prices fall to around $863."*

Another wholesaler, Lokesh Agarwal of Brijwasi Traders & Bullions Pvt Ltd in Lucknow, said scrap sales were still on, due to which, demand for imported gold was low.



 © Reuters 2008 All rights reserved


----------



## So_Cynical

This should be good for the gold price

_Quote:Venezuelan company cuts off Exxon oil

Venezuela's state oil company says it is suspending commercial relations 
with the US-based oil giant *Exxon Mobil* and will no longer sell it crude oil._

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/13/2162153.htm?section=justin


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> Yes I agree the momentum and fundamentals still look good. It's just that in the last month it's been on for young and old.





And that is a key indicator, increased volatility and volume.  For every seller there is a buyer.   An aspect of charts sometimes overlooked is that of momentum.   Most large corrections are proceeded by lower volume and some lack of interest so to speak. 

I think it was Uncle Festivus who made a point to me mid last year regarding gold, "few investor's have noticed yet so in the bigger picture the bell for the start of the game has not yet sounded"    Maybe this is the ringing of the bell.

The economics for gold to take off soon have certainly formed of late.   When news reports are hinting at more US Fed rate cuts we may soon see.  As some one else here said a few weeks ago, a few more cuts and oopps.


----------



## Kauri

a slight contrarian view??? but trading on the short frame..5mins.. allows that..   ..


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Buffett has ridden in on his white horse and slain the fire breathing recessionary dragon..( although really he has only carved off a chunk of prime rump and left the stinking carcass for others to deal with)..
> *Rumours* of a European bank in financial pressure/strife..
> and data showing India not buying gold ( still getting trotted out)..
> so down gold goes...
> for now...
> Slanty
> .............Kauri






wayneL said:


> How does one start one of these rumours? ::




BaryernLB... or maybe IKB.. maybe both... maybe neither...


----------



## Kauri

the 905ish area seems to be important S/R...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> the 905ish area seems to be important S/R...
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




On the button by the look.  Wont' tire you with another chart but steady to 908.   Maybe a correlation with Incitec Pivot, a lot of money in crapola.  In fact the turds have been flying across oceans as so aptly you shine the torch Kauri.

Cheers explod


----------



## Kauri

well that one didn't fare too well... back to the drawing board..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Some critical support here at 895-900.  A break would set a cat among the sell stops..


----------



## Kauri

back in for another bite..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## barrett

A closeup of the pointy end.. crunch time!  This and the last chart were hourlies


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> A closeup of the pointy end.. crunch time! This and the last chart were hourlies




That 905 line seems to be drawn in stone...  a good break through there may be interesting


----------



## ithatheekret

I was looking at the charts earlier and wondering if 886 area was the new foundation area to build from , COTs reports might help to clarify , but I'm sure we'll see record or near record shorts . Be nice to see a short squeeze .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I was looking at the charts earlier and wondering if 886 area was the new foundation area to build from , COTs reports might help to clarify , but I'm sure we'll see record or near record shorts . Be nice to see a short squeeze .




  had to reorganise my abc's on the 60... but still daring to look for an 856'ish on the dailies..


----------



## ithatheekret

Do you get anything showing between 886 and 892 ?


----------



## Kauri

managed to pull something out of that.. I'm off for an early night..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

See what happens when you stick your thumb in .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> See what happens when you stick your thumb in .




you spying????   
have a good one.. seeya
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Night mate .

Your gonna miss Ben , he'll be sitting there like a pruned hedge ..........  scaring the big kids


----------



## CamKawa

Hungary's economy seen slipping into stagflation

By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:29 p.m. EST Feb. 14, NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - New economic data indicate that Hungary may be slipping into stagflation and its predicament may be a warning as to where other central and eastern European economies are heading....
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={A8F80605-2ED0-4F1E-835B-DF23F8F3D66C}

More good news for gold.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

One of my indicators is indicating (funny that !) that we might have a bit of a break out tonight/soon. The pointy bit is closing in, ADR at it's lowest for some time. Just _feels_ like a big move is imminent? 

PS How about those gold stocks today - SBM got a woody just before the close! Hello $1?
What were the dirs of MON thinking? How to crash your co's shareprice!


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> One of my indicators is indicating (funny that !) that we might have a bit of a break out tonight/soon. The pointy bit is closing in, ADR at it's lowest for some time. Just _feels_ like a big move is imminent?
> 
> PS How about those gold stocks today - SBM got a woody just before the close! Hello $1?
> What were the dirs of MON thinking? How to crash your co's shareprice!




I'm with you Uncle.. my vinocators are up... original possie and pyramiddie so far... (love this 5min trading... trends within trends within trends..)
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm just bored with gold , already know what it's gonna do and what it could do , the risk reward ratio is just not enticing enough at present . Not saying I think it's too cheap or too expensive , just plain boring . You'd get a crook neck following the nightly tick chart . The way it's trading , I can get the same risk at a lower entry elsewhere . Like a 5 unit spread on CAD , $200 in , wait for the spike , bank the money , can't normally do this same step day in day out , but repetition in the volatile markets is a good game . 

Just making hay whilst the sunshines .

That 901 area and above looks like a shelf , not a true support to me , I have support about ( trying to get the closest figure ) 855.50 upto 892ish , if that's right I would expect a push up and a test of the high again . I've got a 941 test pencilled in , but tell that to banks etc. needing cash ..........


----------



## Kauri

interesting rumours storming the rounds... sometimes I feel like the bloke punching holes in his gumboots to let the water out...
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> interesting rumours storming the rounds... sometimes I feel like the bloke punching holes in his gumboots to let the water out...
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




What kind of rumours.. anything to do with gold just flying up $5 an ounce?
This market has been so hard to trade.. I haven't placed any trades for 2 weeks now..


----------



## Kauri

Pres George W turns in at 275 come monday.. I wonder if that will have any affect/effect?? on the risk profile of the punters over the weekend.. or if they choose to take the risk on board for 3 days... have to think on this for a whiles..
Chaars
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'll drink to that .


----------



## Kauri

almost run out of time to decide...


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> almost run out of time to decide...





almost....


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> What kind of rumours.. anything to do with gold just flying up $5 an ounce?
> This market has been so hard to trade.. I haven't placed any trades for 2 weeks now..




 WSJ report of two Citi funds in trouble and with record high delinquencies reported by Countrywide this morning


----------



## barrett

these rallies always seem to be fakeouts.. someone's capping..
this is the usual way though.. chop around a few days until everyone's off seasick in bed, or broke... then shoot off $30 randomly in one direction or other for no particularly good reason!  Meanwhile the gold stocks (except for SBM) are going nowhere.. 

And last week, I meant to say, there was some short covering going on... we know because there was a sharp rally in gold but also a reduction in open interest of 1.5% or 17 tonnes of gold.  This combination can only happen when shorts are running to cover.  It _suggests _weakness to come rather than strength for now, given that the rally ended..
Wave iii of 3 now, Kauri?


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> these rallies always seem to be fakeouts.. someone's capping..
> this is the usual way though.. chop around a few days until everyone's off seasick in bed, or broke... then shoot off $30 randomly in one direction or other for no particularly good reason! Meanwhile the gold stocks (except for SBM) are going nowhere..
> 
> And last week, I meant to say, there was some short covering going on... we know because there was a sharp rally in gold but also a reduction in open interest of 1.5% or 17 tonnes of gold. This combination can only happen when shorts are running to cover. It _suggests _weakness to come rather than strength for now, given that the rally ended..
> Wave iii of 3 now, Kauri?




Seeing as it's George W's birthday monday making a long US weekend, and as my vindicators need to reset, I'm waiting to see how she develops, but it certainly looks like a 3 of 3 may be in the offing... I hope..   Have a good weekend.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Well we got the break up & we'll take the money but, as itha says, all a bit ho hum. Still the bigger picture seems to be continue the channel consolidation between 890 ish - 920 ish. And we all know what comes after gold consolidates for a while......


----------



## Temjin

Personally, I am waiting for this consolidation to run its course. I wanted to add to my position but it seem this recent consolidation was very similar to the previous one after a rapid incline in price. 

Still not there yet though. Who knows which direction will it break. But long term fundamentals are still intact unless the US Federal Reserve decide to push for deflation by pumping up interest rate up to 10ish% just like back in the 1970s. (though Chopper Ben have already said he will never let it happen again and will do everything to fight against it at all cost)

I'm more worried about silver as it seem the consolidation pattern has not fully developed yet and indicators still remain overbrought. I would thought it would take a breath just like gold.


----------



## CamKawa

Here’s a forecast by Scotia Mocatta on the 14/02/2008 that I feel is balanced.

Gold - Technical patterns continue to highlight an environment where
gold has little overall direction. This environment should continue until
we have a break above the February 11th high of 927.31 and a move
below the low of the pattern formed on February 5 & 6th of 885.45.
Until then gold looks poised to remain in the current narrowing pattern
and to lack direction. Technicals highlight that we have entered a nontrending
environment (the ADX - average directional movement index - is
at 19), which weakens the overall effectiveness of traditional technicals.
The medium term outlook continues to be bullish; however for short-term
traders a break of either 885.45 or 927.31 will be needed to foreshadow
the near-term direction.
http://www.kitco.com/reports/sm_feb142008.pdf

I feel gold locally may be a pretty average investment in the near term because if the POG does break to 885.45 the pain of a rising AUD will magnify any losses, and if it does rise to 927.31 I don’t think that we will have much to cheer about as the rising AUD will have eaten most those gains. 

The risk local investor’s face is that if the POG doesn’t keep rising then we are going to slide backwards in the face of a rising AUD and I can’t see the AUD falling any time soon. Some are speculating it may reach parity fuelled by RBA and bank rate rises over the course of the year.

I won’t be topping up my current portfolio with any more gold until either the POG once again finds a solid upward direction or the AUD starts to flatten or fall.

It would be interesting to get some technical analysis of GOLD over the last 3 months, particularly the last 4 weeks.
http://markets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?section=charts&sy=age&code=GOLD#topOfChartsAnchor

Just found the 15/02/2008 report.
Gold continues to trade within its recent range. However, today’s session
was somewhat disappointing, with gold struggling despite leaping
platinum prices, a soft USD and weakness in equities. Gold’s recent
consolidation weakens the power of technical indicators, but overall the
market is looking fatigued. We continue to see trend line support at
892.00, followed by support at the recent low of 885.00. The closest
resistance level is the recent high of 927.30.
http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf

I wish I knew now what I knew before I bought GOLD. It’s ironic that a rock can be so complicated.


----------



## GreatPig

I think "trending" depends on your time frame.

Here's the GOLD stock in A$. It's still in a trend channel, currently just shuffling sideways from the top of the channel to the bottom. While it could potentially be forming a head and shoulders top, as long as it stays in the channel I think it can still be considered "trending".

GP


----------



## ithatheekret

ithatheekret said:


> Do you get anything showing between 886 and 892 ?





Ah...haa  someone else thinking about that area ...........


----------



## CamKawa

GreatPig said:


> I think "trending" depends on your time frame.
> 
> Here's the GOLD stock in A$. It's still in a trend channel, currently just shuffling sideways from the top of the channel to the bottom. While it could potentially be forming a head and shoulders top, as long as it stays in the channel I think it can still be considered "trending".
> 
> GP



Charts like that have been posted previously and to be honest I don't think they hold much weight due to the fact that that was the POG going up when the whole market was in bull territory. The world has now changed and what I think the POG is now pondering is will it continue it's bull run now that it's surrounded by bears? Oh and I'm also asking it to outrun the rising AUD to boot.


----------



## barrett

CamKawa said:


> Charts like that have been posted previously and to be honest I don't think they hold much weight due to the fact that that was the POG going up when the whole market was in bull territory. The world has now changed and what I think the POG is now pondering is will it continue it's bull run now that it's surrounded by bears? Oh and I'm also asking it to outrun the rising AUD to boot.




How do you define 'bull territory'?  I thought that chart defined it rather well..


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> How do you define 'bull territory'? I thought that chart defined it rather well..



The POG has been and is still technically in bull territory. My question is will it remain a bull given that it's tracked sideways in volatile trading over the last month? Is it about to change its mind and make like a bear over short term given that the context of the broader market has changed or will it decouple and head for 950? 

To my mind pulling out a historic chart going back to green acre times (pre 2008) doesn’t hold a huge amount of weight given the significant shift in DOW/XAO sentiment.

Your thoughts?


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm in the 50/50 camp , would like to see a retest of the lower support channel to confirm a base move , lots of daily speculation moving it everywhere without real impetus yet . Funds will be back soon we hope , end of certain New Years etc., 
Once they have started to reshuffle for the year ahead , we could have some clear direction , lots of chips shots , and a few holes so far .


----------



## CamKawa

ithatheekret said:


> I'm in the 50/50 camp...



Let’s look at the factors for a rise in the POG
1. Platinum is going gangbusters
2. Silver is strong
3. Oil is back above 95
4. Declining USD
5. Flight-to-quality
6. BB may cut rates further - March 18

The case against
1. Flight-to-cash
2. PPT intervention
3. Physical buyers suspected to be leaving the market
4. Investors are moving to silver as a cheaper investment vehicle
5. Possible IMF sell off
6. Higher volumes of scrap have entered the market
7. Stevo here at our end will raise rates negating any POG gains
8. It's a bear market (the vibe) 


ithatheekret said:


> ...lots of chips shots , and a few holes so far .



I agree.


----------



## So_Cynical

CamKawa said:


> Let’s look at the factors for a rise in the POG
> 1. Platinum is going gangbusters
> 2. Silver is strong
> 3. Oil is back above 95
> 4. Declining USD
> 5. Flight-to-quality
> 6. BB may cut rates further - March 18



7. Seven year up trend...with trend line getting steeper every year.
8. World production flatlineing/trending sideways.


----------



## Temjin

CamKawa  said:
			
		

> 4. Declining USD




Replace it with 

4. Declining confidence in global fiat money. 

9. Increasing interest as an investment through ETFs/ETCs. 


As for bear case

9. Continue price manipulation from central banks and the "boys".


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> The POG has been and is still technically in bull territory. My question is will it remain a bull given that it's tracked sideways in volatile trading over the last month? Is it about to change its mind and make like a bear over short term given that the context of the broader market has changed or will it decouple and head for 950?
> 
> To my mind pulling out a historic chart going back to green acre times (pre 2008) doesn’t hold a huge amount of weight given the significant shift in DOW/XAO sentiment.
> 
> Your thoughts?




Just in the last 6 months it has tracked sideway twice but it continues on.  It is interesting when one becomes too focused on the expectation of continued rise we become concerned at any consolidation.

The primary reason for golds value is that paper money, as a piece of paper, has none, it is merely a statutory promise(iou) to make good its value.  Inflation/cost of living etc., eats the value away but not gold.  A look at the last six months shows gold steaming up strongly.

The economics in the US are based on debt, the dollar as a result has diminishing value so the only alternative as an abstract form of exchange is gold.


----------



## Whiskers

> Let’s look at the factors for a rise in the POG.



How about more states of South America and Africa closing out western, particularly US miners (and oilers) over wage, royalty, excessive profits and pollution issues.

I can imagine more of this happening quite easily as these countries become more resentful of certain western politicans and decide to hoard their resources for themselves a bit like China is doing.

Enviornmental issues are already delaying big projects even in Alaska for example.

That would lead to a significant short to medium term shortfall of Gold, PGE's and copper.


----------



## ithatheekret

Yes , I agree with all those points , but I'm thinking short term only . Until March I expect sideways movements . The end of the Asian traders new year I see as important . Will they send POG down for a retest , which in my books would be great . I believe it would see the lower supports get up close then a retracement . That's healthy . I never underestimate Asian traders , they are very savvy , sophisticated investors and wield hefty wallets .

I think they 'll drop it back a tad , and we see it chip up for a new higher low , that would also give some technical confirmation .

Market manipulation , well it's everywhere everyday . I still trade within my parameters .

To plagiarize Nick again , " plan the trade , trade the plan " . PERIOD .

You don't rush in if at all possible and if you do it better be at the start of a run up or down and have a good reason , it's better to wait for the trade to come to you if you can .

I can't plan a $3 - $8 trade on a $900 asset , I'm after 10% + ... not 1% .

If I see chaos trading I want in cheap , it's got a very high beta . If I'm going to play in a high beta sandbox , I want Asian traders behind me , following me in or visa versa . They usually can smell what NY is going to do .

The new X factor for gold as I see it , is Dubai ............


----------



## barrett

Great analysis on here this weekend..

Just noticing that on Friday's close there was this breakdown below the 2-month support line, below in green, touched 4 times.  Second chart is a closeup of this and the pullback.  Left to my own devices I'd call this a significant breakdown.  But I haven't seen it mentioned in any commentaries, and the market can't have thought much of it because volume was very ordinary.  So while (to me) it sticks out like dogs b... on the chart, I'm unsure of the significance Any opinions?

A second possibility is that an interim bottom was formed at 896 on Friday night on the lower boundary of the red symmetrical wedge, ahead of a rebound off this level.

A third possibility is that this red wedge is broken also, then support is found at the blue trendline in the third graph, which Itha and Camkawa pointed out.. I think that's the 892 one?

Any opinions on the possible 'breakdown' below would be great.. cheers


----------



## Temjin

ithatheekret said:


> Market manipulation , well it's everywhere everyday . I still trade within my parameters .




Market manipulation for the gold and silver markets are alot different than one would believe a "normal' manipulation be.

There are reasons why world central banks HATE gold and silver.


----------



## ithatheekret

Banks and thinking are a tunnel on their own . The latest events only prove they can err better than the best of us . Interesting moving average crossings ...............


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Market manipulation for the gold and silver markets are alot different than one would believe a "normal' manipulation be.
> 
> There are reasons why world central banks HATE gold and silver.




All true, but they are losing their battle.   Reading the Privatee over the weekend regarding the threat of IMF sales.  All past attempts have failed and the very act indicates a panic that is picked up by the market.

On looking at the daily chart over the last few months and the action already today I would not be suprised to see gold have a crack at the US$940/50 area this week.  

Some big reports due out of Wall Street too.  Could be more fireworks.


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Some big reports due out of Wall Street too. Could be more fireworks.



There's the Consumer price index which is forecast to come in at 0.3% and Core CPI which is forecast to come in at 0.2%. These figures will come out Wednesday in the US of A, Thursday morning our time.


----------



## ithatheekret

Another interesting MA crossing . hands up all you heretics that have been buying


----------



## barrett

Yeah another uptrend forming here in the yellow, here on the hourly, and a junction.  A break to the upside would seem more consistent with the fundamentals at the moment, with Europe likely to cut rates sometime soon given the change in Trichet's language.. even though it may cause the US dollar to rally, would be overall a big plus for gold.  Every day gold stays at these levels makes a signficant pullback less certain.  At this point I think I would buy an upside breakout from this formation especially if volume picks up.


----------



## barrett

hmmm a breakout but on fairly low volume, anyone else trading this one>?


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> hmmm a breakout but on fairly low volume, anyone else trading this one>?




Yep, never off it, long term is the best play on gold in my humble view.  Notice Bernanke saying that a falling US dollar is good for the current situation.  That in itself will push gold up.


----------



## ithatheekret

Getting there , I can see the winces already ..........


----------



## ithatheekret

this is going to get busy methinks ...............


----------



## CamKawa

It seems logical for the POG pick up because according to the media, if you can believe them, gold was sold off from about 915 to 900ish to lock in profits before the start of the long weekend -and here it is now at 916.50.

I also wonder if some short term traders are buying on the run up to the release of the CPI figures on Wednesday.


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Yep, never off it, long term is the best play on gold in my humble view. Notice Bernanke saying that a falling US dollar is good for the current situation. That in itself will push gold up.



I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?


----------



## cuttlefish

as USD holders (and that constitutes nearly every major central bank and institution in the world. as well as all the internal US money) realise their USD investment is eroding they'll switch at least some of it to gold - that will compound/amplify the gold price rise against USD and other currencies. US money in particular is unlikely to trust another currency as a store of value imo - the only real candidates would be the euro or yen - can't really see US money flocking to either of those (and the euro is pretty flaky as well with the european CB's also dishing money out all over the shop).

The USD is the world reserve currency so as it looks shakier then an alternative value store is needed and there aren't really any other solid currency candidates as an alternative (the yen probably is but from a political perspective some countries may not be inclined to switch from USD to yen).  Oils a possible value store but it is really a commodity not a currency, while gold does have good characteristics of a currency and historically proved to be a good value store.


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?




Not at all,  our dollar has risen from .60 to currently .92 over the last four years, that's 50%, gold in the same period has gone up 100%.  My analysis indicates that this departure will continue exponentially.   It is worth reading back over this thread to obtain the whole picture.    

The rise of the gold price is at a very early stage and when it really lets go it is going to take investors breath away.    The website of "The Privateer"  is well worth a look over to get a quick grounding.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CamKawa said:


> I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?




What's the old saying - if it doesn't kill you it will make you stronger, or something like that? That's a bit like the interest rate sensitive $AU at the moment. I would envisage a bullish stance until something in the Aus economy breaks due to rising interest rates, and the interest rate mantra changes to an easing bias. Until that time we can only rely on an increasing US pog to counter the exchange rate. (Poor ol' NEM cant take a trick either way these days )

I'm not sure it's all that strong anyway - if it can't get to parity with the current interest rate spread then it never will??? The Looney can but we can't. Still, it seems the traders look to interest rates for their $AU direction I guess.

When the interest rate bias in Aus reverts to easing that will be the time to load up on physical in AU dollars I think, but for now I'm sticking to gold equities and spot gold cfd

Any traders out there recommend a spot gold broker who does better than 50c spread, eg like IG, and has a decent platform, and security of client funds?????

Itha, you seem to be in and out on a dime, who do you trade with?


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Not at all, our dollar has risen from .60 to currently .92 over the last four years, that's 50%, gold in the same period has gone up 100%. My analysis indicates that this departure will continue exponentially. It is worth reading back over this thread to obtain the whole picture.
> 
> The rise of the gold price is at a very early stage and when it really lets go it is going to take investors breath away. The website of "The Privateer" is well worth a look over to get a quick grounding.



Thank you.


----------



## Whiskers

News earlier of Musharraf's loss in the Pakistan election may be the main cause of the little kick up in POG. 

Interesting to see how that pans out particularly in terms of the US alliance.



> Counting was continuing with results still awaited in less than 20 seats, but no party was expected to win a majority in the 342-seat National Assembly.
> 
> The opposition parties of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appeared to have won enough to command a majority, according to unofficial results. But there is no certainty that they will work together.
> 
> The pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League was trailing a distant third, and the party's spokesman conceded defeat but kept open the possibility of joining a coalition.
> http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSISL25056920080219


----------



## barrett

CamKawa said:


> I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?




I agree with explod & UF, for your long term holdings of bullion and gold stocks, stay with the long term bullish trend and ignore the volatility.  $A may rally but so may gold, even more violently.  It usually doesn't pay to trade in and out of long term gold holdings.  

The reason is that no-one can consistently time the gold price..  I have tried dozens of newsletters and timing services over the past four years.  Those newsletters that try and time the market have done nothing but put a substantial dent in my profits from this gold bull.   Those that do quality fundamental analysis on gold stocks were the ones that made the money.
[that's not to say you can't make money out of EW moves etc. and some spectacular calls eg Kauri's work, if you have special indicators, trading account & lots of time]

Just to clarify where my posts are coming from fwiw, I have a core holding of about 65% of my portfolio and rising in bullion and gold stocks (the rest mainly oil stocks).  I don't try and trade them at all, just accumulate.

My charts etc. on here only relate to a small amount I put aside to trade futures at 20X leverage to see if I can't pick a few moves or preferably get in at the bottom of a really big move.  I'm almost certain my time would be more profitably spent analysing gold stocks in detail than attempting to time the gold price.. but I enjoy following the price, and the potential for a huge win at 20X leverage is there.  

Bottom line IMO is don't mess too much with core holdings, you don't want to be left out of the bull.  Also ideally want a little spare cash in case bargains emerge.  Agreed the Privateer is good and I like the Financial Sense Newshour weekly podcast they are a great weekly companion for gold investors. cheers


----------



## ithatheekret

I used to get newsletters , gave upon them . Found the money was better put to me 

Can't beat a tick chart and a bit of goss.


----------



## barrett

Doubled up my position on this further breakout abov ethe major wedge, very very bullish right now IMO


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> I used to get newsletters , gave upon them . Found the money was better put to me
> 
> Can't beat a tick chart and a bit of goss.




Absolutely! short newsletters, long bushmills.. hold on I think that was Kauri's trade


----------



## ithatheekret

Past the squweeeeeeze zone  . Hope you heathens are happified


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I used to get newsletters , gave upon them . Found the money was better put to me
> 
> Can't beat a tick chart and a bit of goss.




  Some of the goss that was passed on to me via *ithatheekret  *  this arvo..

no credibility suisse pulling up a couple of bills short.. and a one liner about future "revaluations".. (how can you revalue something that has no value??
the uber swiss bank under pressure from ethos to have an independant audit to show what the gnomes really know..
a couple of pommie banks under pressure., (probably no truth in it but good to trade on)
Ambac struggling to get 2 bills from s/holders... but possibly going to be broken up into two banks.. the muni's and the kaka... hedge funds and banks not happy at that as their bets on loan failures will lose a lot...

all this this arvo... and down go JPY swaps and up goes gold in the now familiar rush for the doors by the risk takers..   maybe..   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Past the squweeeeeeze zone . Hope you heathens are happified




I've been on cloud 5... everytime (since crossing over) she comes back to the foggy senkou she takes off...   
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## cuttlefish

Quite a strong move. It would be nice to see gold get past the historic highs into blue sky. The size of the platinum run must bode well for it surely.


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> I've been on cloud 5... everytime (since crossing over) she comes back to the foggy senkou she takes off...
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Amazing what a little observation can be pull out in those clouds hey mate , even the vanilla heik speaks on its own . I've been up down and round and round on the data you gave me , set my indis and off she went , to be smashing boundaries on Skip with it too .

Speaking of JPY longs if you hadn't mentioned those options in the backroom cupboards , I got some low 107's , but they are needed for something else to be boxed .

A Japanese friend sent me an email card , knows I can't read Japanese , need the eldest daughter to translate it , probably giving me chit .

Here's a line that was in green and gold , any takers ? He's a bug .

女の子のもつれのためのより多くの金を買い、安いがあることを停止しなさい。


----------



## Whiskers

Hows this look, ithatheekret. (From Dictionary.com/Translator) 

You buy many gold for tangling the girl, are cheap but stop a certain thing.

PS: From  http://tets9.freetranslation.com/

Stop that is although, buys many gold more and girl of entanglement be cheap.


----------



## ithatheekret

Must be close he's called me tangles ever since we first started fishing together , by the syntax he sounds half cut too . That wouldn't surprise me , can out drink me without taking a breath .

PS... The rest has got me , unless he's calling me a tightrse again .


----------



## barrett

well that rice wine's a wicked drop isn't it.  Nice work Whiskers.. just when I was thinking he said the xau would break out on 20th February..


----------



## chops_a_must

Pretty phenomenal moves for everything inflationary tonight...

Even as the indices come off the boil, oil gold, grain et al still going strong.

You aren't welcome at this party financials! Bugger off, nobody likes you!

How's the USD looking?


----------



## ithatheekret

Uncle Festivus said:


> Itha, you seem to be in and out on a dime, who do you trade with?




You can get less than a 50 cent spread , yeehaa where .

Who do I trade with , my missus says who don't I trade with .

Aussie stocks IB and Bells , some NAB .

Inter, HSBC , IB and a private brokerage .

Forex , hehehe I've got 6 accounts if we include a CFD account with GCI .

Most forex that I prefer is through European brokerage , but that is purely for position trading . Scalps is WCF , North okay except drops out a lot , same as AVA , they're not bad , suntan brokerages though , very exotic .

The only " brokerage " ( a real one ) I like is a Swiss mob ACM . Does gold silver ( no platinum ) and oil now . Better spread and services is tops .
They have simplified many obstacles for me too .............


----------



## barrett

chops_a_must said:


> Pretty phenomenal moves for everything inflationary tonight...
> 
> Even as the indices come off the boil, oil gold, grain et al still going strong.
> 
> You aren't welcome at this party financials! Bugger off, nobody likes you!
> 
> How's the USD looking?




Just quietly, I have found it just as satisfying to watch the shares of Babcock and Brown and Macquarie Bank drop 40-50% as to watch the gold price go up this relatively small 50%.. and I hope those giant parasites meet with the fate they deserve.  How many ounces do they own.. that's all it will come down to in the end!


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> I like the Financial Sense Newshour weekly podcast they are a great weekly companion for gold investors. cheers



I've been listening to Jim for the last couple of weeks since you last mentioned him.


----------



## CamKawa

*Technical Commentary*​ 
*Gold *
​​- Technically, the metal surpassed an important hurdle today as it broke above resistance provided by the February 11th high of 927.31. The next hurdles lies at a break of the February 1st high of 936.92 (also the current nominal all-time new high). A few technical studies (MACD and short-term moving averages) have yet to provide buy signals; however it looks increasingly likely that the bulls are in control of the market and are aiming for a test of 950.00. All in all, the technical outlook for gold continues to foreshadow further upside. Support lies at intraday congestion of 916.00; while resistance comes in at the February 1st high of 936.00. 
 

source: http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf​


----------



## Temjin

Shhhhhhhh, just one night of movement and there it goes. So much for waiting for the consolidation to finish before adding in more position, it never fall enough for me.


----------



## barrett

Temjin said:


> Shhhhhhhh, just one night of movement and there it goes. So much for waiting for the consolidation to finish before adding in more position, it never fall enough for me.




I was also hoping for a lower entry point, but I see last night's action as good news, a major positive shift in sentiment, I think placing 1000 once again on the near term agenda, and today is still a good buying opportunity IMO,
- breaks through multiple important resistance levels on fairly high volume
- volume high and increasing on runups.. low and decreasing on pullbacks
- XAU confirming the breakout, breaking out nearly 5% in a night

Meanwhile..
- XAU coming off a significant low relative to gold (gold stocks undervalued vs metal)
- gold juniors going for a song

Looking to add more contracts soon especially if it drifts down to the 916.  May have to settle for 920+, kind of keen to get in before 7pm,  any other technical indicators turning positive/negative on the short term? cheers


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Shhhhhhhh, just one night of movement and there it goes. So much for waiting for the consolidation to finish before adding in more position, it never fall enough for me.




Think it is looking back to give you another chance.  Consolidation appears to be happening here and should last till next Tuesday or Wed., I think ?  but the break above 940 is near.


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Think it is looking back to give you another chance.  Consolidation appears to be happening here and should last till next Tuesday or Wed., I think ?  but the break above 940 is near.




Gold and oil nexus remains firmly in place.
While this is so, gold will spike on oil spikes.
While oil supplies remain tight, gold will stay high.
Not surprisingly, oil's record $101 per barrel coincided with gold taking out resistance and setting its own record over $941 overnight.
The fundamentals of commodities remain the key determinant of prices going forward, and the probability of gold hitting $1000 this year is improving markedly: Because it appears OPEC has no intention of meeting the demand concerns of western economies - a major departure from its former philosophy of ensuring that oil prices did not impact or constrain western growth.


----------



## CamKawa

It's taken off alright.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> Gold and oil nexus remains firmly in place.
> While this is so, gold will spike on oil spikes.
> While oil supplies remain tight, gold will stay high.
> Not surprisingly, oil's record $101 per barrel coincided with gold taking out resistance and setting its own record over $941 overnight.
> The fundamentals of commodities remain the key determinant of prices going forward, and the probability of gold hitting $1000 this year is improving markedly: Because it appears OPEC has no intention of meeting the demand concerns of western economies - a major departure from its former philosophy of ensuring that oil prices did not impact or constrain western growth.




The reason for OPEC not meeting its promise is because it cant'.    The drop in the oil price over the last month or so was greater than that of gold.  

Oil has its effect but the real key to gold is fiat money.   As more debt carnage comes to the surface the more fragile the US dollar looks.

Gold will continue to move counter to the $US dollar, it always has.

The US money problem further expanding in the last day or so will hit the Dow soon also,  the chart looks very close to the edge of a cliff.   Bernarke will reduce interest rates again which will further dash the dollar.

Of course the US Fed via the usual outlets try to paint a perception of gold being tied to other than the dollar but a look back at the respective charts for the last few years reveals very much otherwise.


----------



## GreatPig

explod said:


> Gold will continue to move counter to the $US dollar



But how it's likely to move relative to the A$ is of more interest to me.

GP


----------



## ithatheekret

Does anyone know what happened around the $926 area ?


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> Does anyone know what happened around the $926 area ?




broke previous high of 11 Feb, then broke 1-day overhead trend resistance at 927... unless you know of other significance?

and another major upleg began...


----------



## ithatheekret

Nope , that works for me .

Was chatting with Kauri earlier , just trying to figure out a few things noted , the lead up was silent , but when it lept ...... yep 

Still trying to figure out a couple more things above that area starting around $942 area .

Looking at a splash of feed from $934-$938 still .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> broke previous high of 11 Feb, then broke 1-day overhead trend resistance at 927... unless you know of other significance?
> 
> and another major upleg began...




Um, is it getting that simple these days? Symetrical triangle consolidation then breakout - only on decreasing x scale value ie time scale. Meaning we are getting closer to a big move higher ie past 1k and/or it's gonna blow off top itself? 

And the trigger would be? How about finding out the US banking system is insolvent - check the latest reserves figures - for the first time it's negative .


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> I've got a 941 test pencilled in , ..........



Itha how did you come up with this six days ago, should I be getting a book on cloud charts or something?

Festivus like you said the other day 'we all know what happens to gold after a consolidation'  the wedges etc seem simplistic but there are so many people out there doing these kindergarten technicals I think it's self-fulfilling like past cpl of days,
1. breakout above red wedge festivus drew in, buy at 910
2. breakout above golden wedge, itha's inverted H&S underneath supporting it all, buy at 919 
3. pullback to breakout point at 916 hourly close (intra-hour down to 913 while I was asleep, someone stole half my position) 

.. but I take it 1,2,3 brought enough power to take 926 & beyond on technical/short squeeze buying frenzy,

Explod you tipped a consolidation now I hope so I need to reload but my chart not giving too many clues for the next day or two.  Just wondering what Scotia Mocatta are calling for now, anything interesting there CamKawa?  Any ideas on the short term Kauri, Mark?  

Looking at a one year chart is encouraging, relentless up, and the regular consolidations make the whole thing feel more sustainable than the strong rallies in the past like the blow-off top into may 06.  The steady uptrend would be consistent with wave 3 (of the entire bull market).  Many gold investors stay on the sidelines in disbelief, institutions begin to get involved..  the 'wave 3' as they call it..


----------



## Kauri

just an idle thought whilst I mull over the Philly..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> just an idle thought whilst I mull over the Philly..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Platinium and Silver coming off a bit... Silver baulking at 18

Might be a clue.


----------



## So_Cynical

Yep should break 950 this run and test 1K ..  over the next 2 weeks.


----------



## Wysiwyg

The correlation between oil (main pic.) and gold is undoubtable.Good shot on the $950 S.C.


----------



## Kauri

*Rumors* are now circulating of a USD$10-20 billion write-down with one of the US investment banks and should this actualize,....   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Wysiwyg said:


> The correlation between oil (main pic.) and gold is undoubtable.Good shot on the $950 S.C.




Um, I can't see a good enough correlation to trade with? Do you use it to trade gold? What correlation are you going by? Is it a ratio, percent rise/fall, relative? 

The gold/oil ratio has not been a constant.
The gold/oil ratio macd is turning up (gold to outperform, oil to underperform??).
Gold continues to break all time highs
Oil is having a third go at breaking through $100 _convincingly_?????
US Banking system is insolvent (just thought I'd add that in for Kauri's post )


----------



## CamKawa

GreatPig said:


> But how it's likely to move relative to the A$ is of more interest to me.



I was wondering the other day why we don't quote the POG in AUD's here in the forum because it can rise or fall in as many USD's as it likes when it's only the POG in AUD that really counts.

Case in point is this chart. POG is up 4.26% in USD but down 1.25% in AUD. Note this chart stops at 18 Feb and hasn't taken into consideration the latest price movement so I think we may be in front in AUD terms now as well.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CamKawa said:


> I was wondering the other day why we don't quote the POG in AUD's here in the forum because it can rise or fall in as many USD's as it likes when it's only the POG in AUD that really counts.
> 
> Case in point is this chart. POG is up 4.26% in USD but down 1.25% in AUD. Note this chart stops at 18 Feb and hasn't taken into consideration the latest price movement so I think we may be in front in AUD terms now as well.




I have wondered this too, but it appears that our market (gold shares) is more aligned with the US pog for some reason??


----------



## CamKawa

ithatheekret said:


> Does anyone know what happened around the $926 area ?



Are you talking about the mystery plunge in the POG? Scotia Mocatta has described it as "Gold opened at 924.30/924.80 in New York. Funds sold early on responding to falling oil prices and a stronger USD, pushing the metal to a low of 913.20/913.70. The metal quickly recovered from the lows as good bids flooded the market."

Whenever the POG does a nose dive central bank intervention is always a suspect that's on the top of my list.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Uncle Festivus said:


> Um, I can't see a good enough correlation to trade with? Do you use it to trade gold? What correlation are you going by? Is it a ratio, percent rise/fall, relative?




Hi Unc. well i entered my first ever gold trade yesterday (still going) but no i didn`t/don`t use the relationship existing between the two to trade.Just noting the similarities in chart movement at times and certainly not all the time.

Have a fun day,


----------



## barrett

Those mainly buying futures will follow the USD price, the contracts are denominated in $US so $A movements don't matter..  but for following the ASX-listed gold stocks, bullion, etc. the $A gold price is the most important factor, and especially for the miners who pay their cash costs, or some of their cash costs, in $A.  Our gold stocks do get their leads strongly from the US gold sector, but there is an 'adjustment' built in, eg yesterday the US gold price made a new high, XAU was up 4.9%... but $A gold price remained some way below the recent high, Aussie gold stocks up on average maybe 3%?..  so best to follow both prices and keep an eye on what the US gold sector is doing too..


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> Just wondering what Scotia Mocatta are calling for now, anything interesting there CamKawa?



*Market Commentary
Gold​*​​​​opened at 943.00/943.50 in New York and traded erratically
within a narrow range for much of the morning. It drifted lower near the
London fix, however this was short lived as funds bought responding to
the weaker USD. Oil initially rallied after the release of above consensus
weekly inventory levels, which helped gold to climb to a new high of
953.80/954.30. The metal was later dragged lower as oil prices tumbled,
finding support around 944.00. Into the close it recovered marginally
and settled at 945.40/945.90.
​*Technical Commentary
Gold​*​​​​- After yet another strong performance today it is difficult to be
anything but bullish on gold. Those worrying about overbought levels
should be reassured by an RSI of just 67 and few indications that we are
anywhere near overbought, even on the short term stochastics. The five
day commodity chart to the right highlights that on a comparative basis
gold has essentially underperformed, which should also help to shield if
there is a correction in other commodities. All in all, technicals continue
to point to further upside. Support lies at the 21-day moving average of
915.95; while resistance can now be found at the psychological level of
1,000.​
Source: http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf​​​​​


----------



## barrett

Ta for that, they're very bullish aren't they.. 
was just looking at this potential reversal in the HUI last night, although it wasn't confirmed in the XAU so not technically so bearish I think..

The only thing troubling me about this rally, the gold price is repeatedly making new highs and the HUI _repeatedly _ isn't... either bullion will correct sharply on its way higher, a la Dec 06, or the stocks are about to play one huge catch-up game.  Just noticing on the third chart below that the HUI close today at $944 gold is only about the same level as it reached in November at $850 gold.  That's not right!  As if cash costs have gone up 10% in three months, I don't think so... and Anglo which got dragged down by the South African power problems, isn't even in the HUI so it's not as if that's biasing everything down.

How will it be resolved.. Fat Prophets' opinion from this Tuesday was that they think gold will reach US$1000 soon and at that point most gold miners will start to turn profits and the big money to be made will be in the stocks.  I still question well why are the stocks so clearly making a series of lower highs here when gold is so _clearly _ making new highs, but for now I'll go with the FP interpretation..


----------



## ithatheekret

CamKawa said:


> Are you talking about the mystery plunge in the POG? Scotia Mocatta has described it as "Gold opened at 924.30/924.80 in New York. Funds sold early on responding to falling oil prices and a stronger USD, pushing the metal to a low of 913.20/913.70. The metal quickly recovered from the lows as good bids flooded the market."
> 
> Whenever the POG does a nose dive central bank intervention is always a suspect that's on the top of my list.




I bought the dip I had been riding down , then I got a signal at 919 to buy , so I did , then it smashed through 926 . But the 926 run was so fast and sudden . I'm suss that US data that was due to come out was already in someones hands to trade with ! 

Everything that says POG should rise happened the day after .


----------



## barrett

something interesting here just in on the 5min... maybe a short-term inflection point.. 948.8 the key level on the potential right shoulder..a break above that would be bullish or neutral, a strong bounce off it would be quite bearish for a day or two, target would be 926-7... hmm that rings a bell


----------



## Kauri

may affect/effect things???
The latest Turkish initiative to eradicate PKK rebels has reportedly started with a land offensive backed by fighter jets. Turkish TV is reporting, without citing sources, that some 10,000 troops had crossed the boarder and moved six miles inside Northern Iraq.


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep , claiming a hunt of PKK .

Enough tanks and troops to hold the ground by the looks after too .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Yep , claiming a hunt of PKK .
> 
> Enough tanks and troops to hold the ground by the looks after too .




PKK today...PPT tomorrow....


----------



## ithatheekret

Bet they wished they never helped with CIA operations now .


----------



## GreatPig

Kauri said:


> may affect/effect things???



affect, FWIW.

GP


----------



## CamKawa

Turkish troops move into northern Iraq
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/22/2170480.htm?section=justin


----------



## ithatheekret

Nice dip .


----------



## barrett

Three right shoulders held below 948.86 on the 5-min and now the neckline in blue looks to be broken.  Revised downside target based on the head and shoulders is now 929.25...  & here's the good bit.. that number is exactly the high point reached 2 days ago on the hourly close.. so it's double support.  I reckon that would be the last good opportunity to buy before 1000...


----------



## barrett

whoops that was 15 min chart, same targets though, anyone else playing this move? Trying to stay awake to see if it reaches 929.25, if so I'll load up there


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> whoops that was 15 min chart, same targets though, anyone else playing this move? Trying to stay awake to see if it reaches 929.25, if so I'll load up there




couldn't resist... missed the bottom..  .. but got set at 937.. been waiting all day.. with ithateekrat,, for this.....playing in the clouds again..   
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I got mine mate ..... but I had my limit well set this arvo .

Everything else has been spec runs . Now have to be careful , trucks full .


----------



## ithatheekret

Come to think about it mate that's serious money already .........


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I got mine mate ..... but I had my limit well set this arvo .
> 
> Everything else has been spec runs . Now have to be careful , trucks full .




stops set.. and off to the scratcher for me... have fun...
Cheers
.........SteveH


----------



## ithatheekret

I was going to rest my eyes , bit screened out , but I've had to wake the missus for this one .

New ute to tow the boat coming up .........


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I was going to rest my eyes , bit screened out , but I've had to wake the missus for this one .
> 
> New ute to tow the boat coming up .........





WHAAAATT!!!   not going to retire the tractor surely..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## JPC

The way its going in a couple of weeks it will be  $1000....


----------



## ithatheekret

Hope so JP , don't know that i'll be waiting to long , I've moved 25 off already , but that is the ute ....... gross .

Ha retire the tractor Kauri no way she's a happy beachbum nowdays , only way to shore launch . She's pulled out a few Toorak tractors and saved them from the surf , should get her a yellow cap .


----------



## ithatheekret

almost breakeven for the days open I think ............


----------



## Kauri

a fight to break through the 5 cloud???


----------



## ithatheekret

Liquidity search , three sites down  set stops and limits ALWAYS when heavily committed .


----------



## ithatheekret

Yeah 948.60 and 948.80 were hit mate


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Liquidity search , three sites down  set stops and limits ALWAYS when heavily committed .




Tis surprising how many mobs run through Norths... I put a file in the thread "Kauri Trading" that gives access to a whole heapnof feeds... all different names but when you log on a lot of them come up Norths.....  aaahhhh... lifes hard and then you dies...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Lots of little islands needing to link up for liquidity .


I managed to get back in , orders are clear went to 948.98 on the spike , drag Nicks saying out again .

Plan the trade , trade the plan .

PS... and clean up banks and brokerages , they are the competition too.


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Lots of little islands needing to link up for liquidity .
> 
> 
> I managed to get back in , orders are clear went to 948.98 on the spike , drag Nicks saying out again .
> 
> Plan the trade , trade the plan .
> 
> PS... and clean up banks and brokerages , they are the competition too.




I'm wondering how many of those little islands are actually part of one archipalegeo... earthquake prone maybe .. but an archipalegeo none the less...  

  Heinekin ashy says gold may be getting ready to roll over??? (if I can trust the feed    )
Suspicious
...............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Suspicious


Nah S.O.P. pull the phone lines out when we're in a tough spot US funds ...... and Aussie funds have done it for years .

Think of all the ones that haven't placed stops ?????


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Suspicious
> 
> 
> Nah S.O.P. pull the phone lines out when we're in a tough spot US funds ...... and Aussie funds have done it for years .
> 
> *Think of all the ones that haven't placed stops* ?????




   read back through a few threads and...  aaahh what the hlle  there are more valid??? reasons for not placing stops than Carters got liver pills....  ......apparently..   
Stopaholic
,,,,,,,,,,,,,Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

You wouldn't put the milk money out without a stop on it .

I set up some trades tonight and crashed before I'd set some , scared me chitless ............


----------



## Sean K

ithatheekret said:


> You wouldn't put the milk money out without a stop on it .
> 
> I set up some trades tonight and crashed before I'd set some , scared me chitless ............



Depending on the time zone, this is concerning. 

Especially since it's Saturday in most countries around the world....


----------



## ithatheekret

huh ????


----------



## Wysiwyg

The rebound off 936 to 949 was not what i thought would happen.I thought a 943 rebound and settle or down again but the drive up was overwhelming.These moments of volatility are worth their (should i say this) weight in gold.


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> read back through a few threads and...  aaahh what the hlle  there are more valid??? reasons for not placing stops than Carters got liver pills....  ......apparently..
> Stopaholic
> ,,,,,,,,,,,,,Kauri




Nuther interesting week ahead.  Good to look back at the weekly.

Notice the spike from March 06 to May 06, and take in where it began in July of 05.       Noooow

Look at a similar situation starting around July 07, then to our current position which looks uncannily like March 06.   If we were to repeat this we should reach a goal of US$1,250 by July.     However the increasing pressures/volatility would suggest that this would most likely be about 1,500.

It has always been realised that stage one of the gold bull would be when all the investment community is taking notice.   Stage 2 is when they are then invested in it.   A price of 1300 to 1500 by June would sound the start of stage 2.    

In my (very) humble opinion, 

as always.


----------



## barrett

Ya theekretive theekrats *whack* I think you guys have the call though..
The channel on the hourly has plenty of friends.. looking up at the intersection of its resistance with a longer term resistance on the daily gives a 972 target.. by wednesday!  ....that wasn't that the new bentley ute, was it?
bar-rat


----------



## barrett

Probably the most useful article on gold I've read in the past year... 
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2008/0219.html
a bit of ratio analysis goes a long way..

One point involves the dow-gold ratio... he uses a logarithmic y axis but the point is made clearer still with a linear y..


----------



## ithatheekret

barrett said:


> Ya theekretive theekrats *whack* I think you guys have the call though..
> The channel on the hourly has plenty of friends.. looking up at the intersection of its resistance with a longer term resistance on the daily gives a 972 target.. by wednesday!  ....that wasn't that the new bentley ute, was it?
> bar-rat




A Bentley ute , wow . Cwaaaar , imagine how much the divorce lawyers would cost .

972 I have at a range from 960 yet to be seen .

Watched the start to see if 941/2 was retested , got to 945.05 , thought we'd at least see 943.70 touched  . The last peaks look like they are being driven at , should be interesting to see the resistance , there'd be some covering in the last two peaks , probably a few sledgehammers at the tops too , find out if they're still there in a few secs.


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> A Bentley ute , wow . Cwaaaar , imagine how much the divorce lawyers would cost .
> 
> 972 I have at a range from 960 yet to be seen .
> 
> Watched the start to see if 941/2 was retested , got to 945.05 , thought we'd at least see 943.70 touched  . The last peaks look like they are being driven at , should be interesting to see the resistance , there'd be some covering in the last two peaks , probably a few sledgehammers at the tops too , find out if they're still there in a few secs.




950 looks like the problem area.  On my past obs, probably Tuesdy night our time but a break before then would be bullish indeed. 

I think we are at major cross roads here and PPP will want to hold off so we should not be surprised at some good spin from W/S  this evening      IMHO


----------



## barrett

breakdown out of little 2hr bearish wedge etc.. 944 might be my last shot at the bentley..


----------



## barrett

getting up nice and close to support now at 946-7.. surely the enemy have spilled enough blood by now. Anything interesting come by on a cloud?


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> getting up nice and close to support now at 946-7.. surely the enemy have spilled enough blood by now. Anything interesting come by on a cloud?



Oil’s travelling along at 99.60 up 0.79. This might be due to the Turks moving into Northern Iraq which in turn can’t be hurting the POG. 

I’m looking forward to see what happens tonight.


----------



## CamKawa

Thought I’d post a few upcoming important dates and comment on how they would affect the POG.

March 4 – RBA to announce a possible rate rise of 25 points. If this eventuates then this may cause the AUD to lift and offset any rise in the POG in USD’s. L I’ve done a rough calculation that for every 1 cent the AUD rises the POG has to rise 12 dollars to remain level. I’d welcome another forum member to check that though.

March 5 – OPEC meeting. Rumour has it they will either leave production levels steady or reduce supply. For the sake of the POG I hope they cut. Further reading here http://business.theage.com.au/crude-oil-up-after-turkish-attacks/20080225-1ukp.html

March 18 – US Fed to cut rates by 50 points which in theory can cause inflation further down the track which is good for the POG. Further rate cuts down the track aren't so clear now which is a concern for the POG.


----------



## barrett

thar she blows..
topped up before dinner at 947.. not the lowest price but at least 950 is out, might grab another 2 around 949 if this gap's filled,
bring on the opec cut :evilburn:


----------



## MRC & Co

CamKawa said:


> Thought I’d post a few upcoming important dates and comment on how they would affect the POG.
> 
> March 4 – RBA to announce a possible rate rise of 25 points. If this eventuates then this may cause the AUD to lift and offset any rise in the POG in USD’s. L I’ve done a rough calculation that for every 1 cent the AUD rises the POG has to rise 12 dollars to remain level. I’d welcome another forum member to check that though.
> 
> March 5 – OPEC meeting. Rumour has it they will either leave production levels steady or reduce supply. For the sake of the POG I hope they cut. Further reading here http://business.theage.com.au/crude-oil-up-after-turkish-attacks/20080225-1ukp.html
> 
> March 18 – US Fed to cut rates by 50 points which in theory can cause inflation further down the track which is good for the POG. Further rate cuts down the track aren't so clear now which is a concern for the POG.




I have processed the same things.  However, with the last paragraph, a further rate cut in the US would rise the AUD agianst the USD........potentially offsetting any inflationary rise in the US.


----------



## Kauri

Have taken a _golden??_ opportunity to top up... hope it doesn't backfire on me..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Hey let's set up a hedge fund that fades my calls, the whole thread could retire..
stop had me out at 947 are you guys holding?
that was the biggest volume 5min period in some time I think
bounced to 938 just now, forming a bottom but not yet by the look of volume
PS just saw your post Kauri, I doubt you can go wrong buying that level, cheers...


----------



## barrett

apparently the US has OK'd the IMF's gold sale and the plunge came on the news.. except that the gold sale won't be negative for gold at all.. China and some other 2nd tier central banks will be raring at the bit to buy up that gold I reckon.

but 4 or 5 days worth of straight and squiggly lines went down the gurgler tonight... ppl will find their feet again.  Interestingly the XAU and HUI barely flinched so far tonight, no serious technical damage done..
:goodnight:

pinched this from somewhere else

Happens all the TIME lol


----------



## CamKawa

MRC & Co said:


> I have processed the same things. However, with the last paragraph, a further rate cut in the US would rise the AUD agianst the USD........potentially offsetting any inflationary rise in the US.



Yes I agree, it goes around and around. However the POG in AUD's ended up in front after the 125 point cut earlier in the year.

ANY drop in the POG in USD's is going to punish gold locally as the AUD keeps going up and up. http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/1y?audusd=x 
I'm hoping that in the medium term house prices are starting to fall locally as per an article in The Age titled House Flu http://business.theage.com.au/house-flu/20080223-1u70.html and that in turn discourages the RBA from further rate rises thereby taking some pressure off the AUD. House prices are falling in NZ and the Kiwi dollar is falling along with it.

I've got say I'm quite surprised and disappointed to see the POG at 938.30. I was hoping to wake and see it somewhere in the 950's. I can see where the US is coming from supporting the sale of IMF gold sale because further increases in the POG may further weaken the USD. I've been waiting for some central bank intervention albeit indirect here as the POG has been quietly going up recently with not so much as a peep out of them.


----------



## ithatheekret

Well my mobile went off on alert AM , not just on POG either , was supposed to be having an early night , so much for that ............ 
Had an order in way above the 930's that ....thank heavens ..... I removed it .


Got in on the run late and had to wait , caught the second dip in the 935's .

I'm not unhappy at all with the drop , rather glad it came around actually , I don't like one way traffic . Had Skip orders in that were reached , would have thought they'd of been stopped out on the POG drop , I don't think the forex markets are buying the spin on the IMF permission slip .


----------



## ithatheekret

Boy is this metal volatile , bloomin' marvy , but I think the shake out has started , been wondering when they'd get around to it , have they had enough is the key one would think . The only currency that I've seen knocked about on POG drop is the Looney , half a cent under parity again , I think Skips just ahead now .

POG is starting to look defended in those 935 areas , acting like a currency again . I think those Indian buyers might be tuned in on these dips . A lot of money just stop it rolling through when it had gathered downhill speed , that's twice in 24 hours it's done that , good trading ranges the dip has it back in the 35's trying to move lower , looks to be absorbed at present , keeping it tightly within a $5 range .

I think Kauris last in is the target zone , they might get it back there too , if it can get past the sponge .


----------



## ithatheekret

I just rolled the dice @ 934.00 missed the 933.95 by a milli second 

Think I'd better keep the stop tight , huh  seems to be hovering about a little ...... only a little mind you .  A morning doji would be nice about now ...............


----------



## ithatheekret

Ha , that lasted all but 20 seconds . Set my stop at 933.50 and then there it was .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Ha , that lasted all but 20 seconds . Set my stop at 933.50 and then there it was .





I've been playing the 60 sec chart whilst the volatility is there.. looks like a correction/stop out to the minor trend coming up???
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> I've been playing the 60 sec chart whilst the volatility is there.. looks like a correction/stop out to the minor trend coming up???
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 the trailer weathered that surge... reset it to last peak... looks like a few stops may have just been pooped???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> the trailer weathered that surge... reset it to last peak... looks like a few stops may have just been pooped???
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




and over and out... for now..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

The dance beat keeps changing hey ?

I wonder how many others added to that stopfest .

Might see that 931 entry challenged yet mate. That 934.85 drop was a doozy , that's a lot of empty positions by now , few more of those and the COTs report might look healthily oversold


----------



## cuttlefish

I guess they'll just keep trundling the IMF gold sale story out in one way or another every time the gold uptrend tackles a resistance level to try to keeps things orderly for the USD for as long as possible.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> I guess they'll just keep trundling the IMF gold sale story out in one way or another every time the gold uptrend tackles a resistance level to try to keeps things orderly for the USD for as long as possible.




The CB's have via the PPP been trotting out the co-ordinated fixed bank sales to depress the gold prices for 4 or 5 years now.  It is obvious that many banks and countries no longer co-operate as they see greater value in holding some bullion against the deflation of paper money.   So this tactic is dead.   

The IMF holding is their last straw and like above will also fail quickly as well.  Gold is well overdue for a correction and consolidation, the rise since last July has been phenomenal.   It is an opportunity to take stock of the situation and load up on the dips.

A sign that the next leg up will not be far away is the strong showing of silver recently and notice it has held up fairly well overnight.


----------



## Kauri

gone with another little short... 
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> gone with another little short...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



and trail set to B/E.. time for a coffee...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I don't think we'll being seeing a $92B in sales from the IMF , if anything they would lighten the holding slowly , as the gold price directly affects the poorer nations that rely on mining . The last run up in Platinum could be based solely on the African Continents drops in production , the high prices are keeping the poor employed and fed . 

Just caught the second go at a 931.45 entry on the dip  , made up for my first stuff up on the last , don't like losing money Mon - Wed . They're my bread and butter days , Thurs. and Fri are the cream . If you don't fritz it like I did on my first entry , you can get some good movements to play in and out of . Made up my loss even though it was minimal , my first job was to get it back .... done . 

I haven't shorted once , honest Kauri


----------



## barrett

Interesting silver held up, and the xau, hui as well (those indices probably also drawn up by overall market).  That's very interesting.  

I can't identify any trends at the moment and volume remains bearish since last night.. have a bit of a hunch on 928-930, no idea really..  If volume picks up on a rally I'll jump in.  

lucky I pulled those contracts last night though, had bitten off more than I could chew around the 947-949 area, another half hour I'd have been all over..a body at the bottom of a price cliff.. my dad is in on the account and pushes for the highest leverage.. it's murder trying to time the thing


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and trail set to B/E.. time for a coffee...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



and over and out for another nice little clip..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

CamKawa said:


> I'm hoping that in the medium term house prices are starting to fall locally COLOR][/COLOR]
> [/COLOR][/COLOR]




And I think it will!  Stockmarket a leading indicator, this slowdown will be shown in the indicators over the next months and property will be the last to show the weakness as always.  Property market is the next to take the hit IMHO, which as you say, should influence the RBA and their IR decisions, of which will then help POG in AUD.


----------



## CamKawa

MRC & Co said:


> And I think it will! Stockmarket a leading indicator, this slowdown will be shown in the indicators over the next months and property will be the last to show the weakness as always. Property market is the next to take the hit IMHO, which as you say, should influence the RBA and their IR decisions, of which will then help POG in AUD.



I hope that the RBA are onto the fall in property prices and a general slow down in the economy pretty quickly. The last I heard from the RBA they were of the opinion that 1. China will save us and therefore 2. Rates will have to rise until something breaks. The Banks came out today and said that wouldn’t rule out there own rate rise on top of the RBA’s to further compound the increase. I believe the housing market is turning as we speak. I went to 4 auctions on Saturday and only 1 was sold, the other 3 were passed in. I spoke to a Real Estate Agent (REA) who said that in my area in eastern Melbourne property peaked about August-September and are continuing to fall. The REA said last Saturday vendors were taking what ever they were offered. As mentioned previously the faster property prices fall the sooner the AUD can start heading south. Then it’ll be a race between the AUD and the USD to reach the bottom first. I wonder how the POG in AUD's will fair in the mix.


----------



## Kauri

just gotta love those obvious stop runs..   
Chers
........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> just gotta love those obvious stop runs..
> Chers
> ........Kauri




like that one at about 3am, blink and you'd miss it


----------



## barrett

CamKawa said:


> I hope that the RBA are onto the fall in property prices and a general slow down in the economy pretty quickly. The last I heard from the RBA they were of the opinion that 1. China will save us and therefore 2. Rates will have to rise until something breaks. The Banks came out today and said that wouldn’t rule out there own rate rise on top of the RBA’s to further compound the increase. I believe the housing market is turning as we speak. I went to 4 auctions on Saturday and only 1 was sold, the other 3 were passed in. I spoke to a Real Estate Agent (REA) who said that in my area in eastern Melbourne property peaked about August-September and are continuing to fall. The REA said last Saturday vendors were taking what ever they were offered. As mentioned previously the faster property prices fall the sooner the AUD can start heading south. Then it’ll be a race between the AUD and the USD to reach the bottom first. I wonder how the POG in AUD's will fair in the mix.




Great stuff, nothing beats talking to the people in the business.. here in Canberra where the public service continue to spray the walls with cash I hold little hope of house prices ever reaching sane levels... at least there is a chance to make some money in the precious metals, and then, when the people who were leveraging 40X and 80X to buy investment properties in 2004 are lining up at the bank to buy precious metals, buy a house!


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> just gotta love those obvious stop runs..
> Chers
> ........Kauri




 at least on the 60sec. charts you can get away with blinking once..  
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## barrett

trapdoor-market.. no way of knowing how many stops are lurking beneath
the volume keeps piling in relentlessly on the downside moves, and low on the rallies. Just now a sharp rally up to 929, but volume really ordinary, and waning on the way up...


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> at least on the 60sec. charts you can get away with blinking once..
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Kauri are you shorting?  
    ....hey everyone, Kauri did it! :
 j/k


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> Great stuff, nothing beats talking to the people in the business..



Thanks. There have been a couple of negative articles in the papers here about property and I just wanted to get out for myself to see if the reports were accurate and I can confirm they are.



barrett said:


> here in Canberra where the public service continue to spray the walls with cash I hold little hope of house prices ever reaching sane levels...



I wouldn't give up hope. I think that real estate is in for a big fall started by the RBA's IR policy and then finished off buy a recession in the next 12 - 18 months.



barrett said:


> at least there is a chance to make some money in the precious metals, and then, when the people who were leveraging 40X and 80X to buy investment properties in 2004 are lining up at the bank to buy precious metals, buy a house!



You read my mind.


----------



## barrett

Anyone interested here on the long side?  The volume signals have been fairly positive since 925, in hindsight should have bought 928.  this may well be the bottom... but I don't know if I could get a night's sleep


----------



## ithatheekret

Oh yeah I'm in there with ya's Barrett , Kauri can spin around and reverse on a 5 cent piece , I'm sure he drives up and down both lanes .


----------



## barrett

lol Gartman isn't mincing words,
"In conclusion, we do not see these potential
gold sales by the IMF as being disastrously bearish of
gold. Indeed, we see the weakness in the gold market as
an opportunity to buy gold, not to sell it. Historically IMF
gold sales have proven to be that: an opportunity rather
than an obstruction. Weakness today that took spot gold
down to $925 should be bought. It is that simple."


----------



## ithatheekret

I've measured the growth stories , herds get culled regularly by Wall Street .

I expect the same over the next quarterly data , just enough growth to achieve a measurement , going to be fantastic earnings this year for all ...... not .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I've measured the growth stories , herds get culled regularly by Wall Street .
> 
> I expect the same over the next *quarterly data , just enough growth to achieve a measurement , going to be fantastic earnings this year for all ...... not* .




US stocks are cautious as well, after weak earnings reports from Macy"s and Home Depot announced this morning.


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep more nightmares on Wall Street . Be a movie soon .


PS .......  my entry is well above bottom and my five ways look sweet , so anyone that managed to hook a bottom feeder would be sitting pretty about now .


----------



## explod

Silver the leader but the US$ index heading towards a new low is my indicator.   As we have concluded for some time, get PPP Mondays out of the gate and away she blows again.

Gold is the dominant, ultimate currency and paper debtloaded promises will be trashed.


----------



## ithatheekret

The same story line has been dragged out as was the last two minute recession  , even the IMF story Chancellor Crash put that motion forward , just about every point of order smashed it down , POG was around 317 at the time I think , just before the 340's . That's when CNBCs Erin Iceblock mentioned that gold buyers were paranoid , $600 later and Wall Street is the mob that's paranoid . The next President could see them using the Fed word in another way , by adding Penitentiary to the end . That should make up for all the Wall and State spruiking benefics for their bank accounts .


----------



## Kauri

Eurosystem gold sales continue with sales from one Eurosystem central bank of EUR47 mln in gold. ECB-linked central banks have been net sellers of gold now for 171 out of the last 177 weeks but that has not yet failed to stem gold price gains. The IMF is also now tipped to sell gold as well, and it is debatable whether this will affect the price either, despite yesterday"s gold decline on the news the US would support such sales.


----------



## explod

Strewth, whilst watching gold the focus went to silver, poor old PPP dont' seem to have enought fingers for the dyke at the moment and all their pals have got up early to get in line for de loaf of bread.

And de seppos just love dat falling money from above, makes de dow fly, hay mabbe de dow is unca bens helicopted, all commin clear when me head wants to go back to bed.


----------



## Sean K

ithatheekret said:


> Yep more nightmares on Wall Street . Be a movie soon .



WSII will be out just in time.


----------



## qmanthebarbarian

Kauri said:


> Eurosystem gold sales continue with sales from one Eurosystem central bank of EUR47 mln in gold. ECB-linked central banks have been net sellers of gold now for 171 out of the last 177 weeks but that has not yet failed to stem gold price gains. The IMF is also now tipped to sell gold as well, and it is debatable whether this will affect the price either, despite yesterday"s gold decline on the news the US would support such sales.




Snippet from a major on the POG. They've been very accurate on gold and other metals over the past year couple of years - not so on sub-prime 



> Fundamentals: Currently, investors are more concerned about the short term fundamentals of the global economy than those of gold. Economic
> and financial turmoil seems to be the big driver in the absence of physical
> demand. The IMF has gotten the go-ahead for its gold sales plan, although
> it is unlikely to get the required US approval until March-end or early-April.
> If the plan is approved, gold could be under serious pressure. We remain
> negative on the underground mine supply, but have a positive view on the
> above-ground supply, especially scrap sales. In the absence of physical demand, we view gold prices above USD 970 to USD 1,000 as unsustainable,
> and investors should use these levels to sell the metal.


----------



## cuttlefish

strong gold price showing overnight, so I guess we can expect another lacklustre performance on the market today amongst promising gold explorers and new gold producers as they drift around on low volume in apathy lol.  

At least my LGL call options will stack on a cent or two.


----------



## barrett

cuttlefish said:


> strong gold price showing overnight, so I guess we can expect another lacklustre performance on the market today amongst promising gold explorers and new gold producers as they drift around on low volume in apathy lol.
> 
> At least my LGL call options will stack on a cent or two.




yeah exactly, it's like what is going on.. wtf's going on!! lol

I don't read the papers much but I take it the gold story is still pretty much unknown in the broader community and even in the investment community.  Most commodities are pretty easy to understand, industrial supply and demand... gold isn't.  If they don't understand why it's going up they won't invest in it.  That's the experience I have with most of my relatives and friends.  I can tell them about it over and over but they just don't feel they understand it well enough to commit money.  And most financial professionals were trained with a Keynesian bias.. so they've probably got less chance of understanding it than my mum..

Hey qman who was that quote from?
cheers


----------



## explod

qmanthebarbarian said:


> Snippet from a major on the POG. They've been very accurate on gold and other metals over the past year couple of years - not so on sub-prime





yeh, think they will be proven wrong about the gold situation also.  Supply is outstripping demand dispite the rhetoric of the Wall Street crowd.  On volumes now the IMF release will be but a small grain.

That reminds me of our aussie dollar issue someone mentioned yesterday.  With the high gold price in $US demand in that currency is depleating supply, particularly offshore holders who are trying to defend themselves against the loss of the dollars they hold by getting into bullion.  That supply shortage is a global problem so even against our rising aus dollar, gold will still climb at a much greater rate.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Silver the leader but the US$ index heading towards a new low is my indicator.   As we have concluded for some time, get PPP Mondays out of the gate and away she blows again.
> 
> Gold is the dominant, ultimate currency and paper debtloaded promises will be trashed.




Just remember to take profits explod don't fail to see the change. you were right on this 200$ + rally from day one. but don't be the last off just cuz u have a belief! 

good on you!


----------



## Nicks

explod said:


> Supply is outstripping demand dispite the rhetoric of the Wall Street crowd.  QUOTE]
> 
> Explod, dont you mean Demand is outstripping Supply?


----------



## Nicks

Just another point - most Gold is traded in USD right? 

the fact that the AUD has been consistently climbing against the USD at the same time the USD Gold Price has been climbing, means an exponential profit bonanza for our Aussie miners right? like a double whammy of good price and currency conditions?


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Just remember to take profits explod don't fail to see the change. you were right on this 200$ + rally from day one. but don't be the last off just cuz u have a belief!
> 
> good on you!





Nothing to do with belief.  I follow technicals close in executing trades and fundamentals to identify the targets.   With the momentum of the US dollar down and the gold price up I will hold this baby for the moment.   Signs of extreme volatility and sentiment I also watch for, but the market is the torch.

I have been close to this for five years now and can assure you we will know when to get off.

Thanks for the concern and advice.   To are large degree we are entering new territory in the whole global upheaval and will need the counsel of each other every step of the way.

Interesting though, my wife and I only decided overnight to offload some physical silver to turn it over to the share portfolio.   It is going up today (over $20 Aus now) so may have to wait a bit on that.

Cheers  explod


----------



## explod

Nicks said:


> explod said:
> 
> 
> 
> Supply is outstripping demand dispite the rhetoric of the Wall Street crowd.  QUOTE]
> 
> Explod, dont you mean Demand is outstripping Supply?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeh, sorry Nicks, get a bit carried away some time.   But supply will be the growing issue.  Said it before and worth repeating that gold as an investment only forms .005% of the total global pool so if even a few start to take an interest there will be a huge supply problem.   Although with the imploding carry trade may be that pool ratio is going up a bit.
Click to expand...


----------



## CamKawa

Nicks said:


> the fact that the AUD has been consistently climbing against the USD at the same time the USD Gold Price has been climbing, means an exponential profit bonanza for our Aussie miners right?



How about an exponential break even?



Nicks said:


> like a double whammy of good price and currency conditions?



You make more money in gold when your currency is falling against it not rising. Which is why every man, woman and child in the US should be buying it.


----------



## MRC & Co

CamKawa said:


> How about an exponential break even?
> 
> You make more money in gold when your currency is falling against it not rising. Which is why every man, woman and child in the US should be buying it.




Absolutely, US Citizens should have well and truly jumped on the gold bangwagon by now!  They could ride it right to the front of the head office of their bank and retire there!


----------



## CamKawa

MRC & Co said:


> Absolutely, US Citizens should have well and truly jumped on the gold bangwagon by now! They could ride it right to the front of the head office of their bank and retire there!



Conversely it’s barely worth while for us Australians with the AUD staring down the barrel at parity. Term deposits at 7-8% may look good to some in comparison.

Buying into GOLD or the gold miners will get you a better return when the AUD starts to fall. This may occur when the RBA cuts rates possibly latter in the year when the US recession hits us.


----------



## MRC & Co

Not sure if I am arrogant/ignorant or just educated, but I think with the property market still to feel these latest economic dramas, they are just at the start of their problems.  

Not to mention, as you say, US flow on effects and economic indicators in general, have not even shown the latest dramas.  Stockmarkets are always the first to take the wrath of any slowdown (including our gold equities )!  

I could well and truly see rates left on hold in the short-term and possible cuts over the next year or so.  Remember, the majority of their recent cuts are yet to even be seen.  Surely the RBA will not just shoot now, consider damages later!  

I think gold in AUD will do quiet well in the medium-term.  I am definately bullish on gold and my portfolio positions confirm that.  One on a good run at the moment is EQI which appears very seldom talked about on these boards but one I like, both technically and fundamentally.

Cheers


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Not sure if I am arrogant/ignorant or just educated, but I think with the property market still to feel these latest economic dramas, they are just at the start of their problems.
> 
> Not to mention, as you say, US flow on effects and economic indicators in general, have not even shown the latest dramas.  Stockmarkets are always the first to take the wrath of any slowdown (including our gold equities )!
> 
> I could well and truly see rates left on hold in the short-term and possible cuts over the next year or so.  Remember, the majority of their recent cuts are yet to even be seen.  Surely the RBA will not just shoot now, consider damages later!
> 
> I think gold in AUD will do quiet well in the medium-term.  I am definately bullish on gold and my portfolio positions confirm that.  One on a good run at the moment is EQI which appears very seldom talked about on these boards but one I like, both technically and fundamentally.
> 
> Cheers




Good observations.  There is a long way to go in playing out the effects from financial dramas that began to uncover about 12 months ago now.   The Wall Street crash is yet to come and it will, very big time IMHO.  (I await trawling eg. BHP for less than $20)  My view is that it may be 12 months away as the PPP will do all in its power to hold things together till the end of the Presidential election late this year.    By now most followers of this thread know well the power of the W/S spin on the markets.

Part of the tactic will be to allow the $US dollar to continue to weaken which will be positive for gold.   Because few in the US pay attention to it, that is not a problem to them.   It will be then that we will look to diversifying our gains from gold into the blue chips at the right time.

I may well be wrong, but that will be the rough script.

We will watch with great interest


----------



## habs

those 2 posts are a couple of the best ive read on this forum, thanks guys for sharing the info, its certainly opened my eyes to many more things.


----------



## cuttlefish

If we get a true breakout of inflation, including strong wage inflation, then all asset classes and relative prices will need to be viewed in terms of an inflationary environment.  This would apply to property prices as well.  Inflationary environments devalue cash.


Interesting start to the night for gold.


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Remember, the majority of their recent cuts are yet to even be seen.




Sorry, this was meant to read "rises" as opposed to "cuts".

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

CamKawa said:


> Conversely it’s barely worth while for us Australians with the AUD staring down the barrel at parity. Term deposits at 7-8% may look good to some in comparison.
> 
> Buying into GOLD or the gold miners will get you a better return when the AUD starts to fall. This may occur when the RBA cuts rates possibly latter in the year when the US recession hits us.




Short term, different currencies can not notice rising POG, but this secular Gold bull is not currency based. Yes, its tied to the US dollar at the moment as that is global reserve currency, but Au is making all time highs in every currency now. Yes its going up faster in USD, and has been for longer, but its going up against all, and soon that will be plain for everyone to see.

Aus monetary growth is around 16% so there is no way in the world, gold will not appreciate in AUD also.


----------



## MRC & Co

How are gold futures doing tonight so far boys.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> How are gold futures doing tonight so far boys.




Answers for itself.  Had felt it may sit below 950 for awhile but this bull is very stong.  Of course $US weakness is the key driver.   Both at respective records tonight.


----------



## Miner

Hi

Where  are you  Kauri and  your  commentary in this thread ?
Are you on holiday or just taken step aside to have a bit of fun ?


----------



## Mellow77

refined silver said:


> Short term, different currencies can not notice rising POG, but this secular Gold bull is not currency based. Yes, its tied to the US dollar at the moment as that is global reserve currency, but Au is making all time highs in every currency now. Yes its going up faster in USD, and has been for longer, but its going up against all, and soon that will be plain for everyone to see.
> 
> Aus monetary growth is around 16% so there is no way in the world, gold will not appreciate in AUD also.




just FIY, AUD is not making all time highs against CZK (czech koruna), unfortunately for me as I live in Prague but chosen to invest half of my hard earned money in Au...


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Answers for itself.  Had felt it may sit below 950 for awhile but this bull is very stong.  Of course $US weakness is the key driver.   Both at respective records tonight.



The Market is trying to price-in another 50 basis point US interest rate cut.
And it's anticipating another one after that.
Given the next rate cut is still a few weeks away, gold should continue higher over the next week or so before settling down.
I expect the Fed to pare interest rates ultimately below 1%, so POG has a good medium term future.


----------



## Muschu

And, for the novice, where is/are the better/best places to buy into gold please?


----------



## explod

Muschu said:


> And, for the novice, where is/are the better/best places to buy into gold please?




For physical I go the A J MATHEYS,  they have a direct sales desk in most Capital cities.  My nearest is Collins st melb.    Google the web site and bullion prices are under the jewerlry sector at the top of the page.

Have not done it but understand you can buy online with Perth mint and they store it.


----------



## Kauri

Miner said:


> Hi
> 
> Where are you Kauri and your commentary in this thread ?
> Are you on holiday or just taken step aside to have a bit of fun ?




trading on a 1min timeframe is keeping me pretty busy..  by the way AIG just announcing an 11.5 bill unrealised loss on its super senior default swap portfolio may have helped gold... but I guess it will weigh on stocks somewhat today... 
Cheers
.........Kauri

PS
the triangle i pencilled in a whiles back has all but hit its projected target... but where to from here???


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Marc Faber is a big fan of Bernanke & the $US . See the Lateline Business interview

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200802/r228349_908822.asx


----------



## MRC & Co

What a day, market tanks, my portfolio is green!  

Gotta love those metals at the moment!  Copper and Gold are my two money spinners!

Rick, as for how I invest, I simply buy equities which have similar patterns to the underlying commodity.  Also ensure they have stable fundamentals (my most important thing) and use TA to time my entries, exits.  

Cant wait for a bounce from this recent punishing!  Overreaction by the ASX, hopefully US moves up overnight and Monday will give us a real treat!

As for the AUD, surely the RBA will have to factor in property, along with the trade balance and current account.  Rising dollar must just be pushing our debt levels through the roof!


----------



## trtkjd1

Glad your portfolio is green mine was for about an hour now its awash with red ink, i still can reason why when the price of gold goes up and the market falls it takes gold along with it. you would reason that it should at least hold steady.


----------



## Temjin

trtkjd1 said:


> Glad your portfolio is green mine was for about an hour now its awash with red ink, i still can reason why when the price of gold goes up and the market falls it takes gold along with it. you would reason that it should at least hold steady.




Margin call, forced liquidation of portfolio. Everything has to be sold regardless when stuff like this happens. 

Junior gold producers and/or gold ETFs/ETCs are more immune to such forced liquidation due to margin calls.


----------



## scuffler

howdy guys.
Well gold is on the rampage at the mom.
Once it broke the 960 area with volume it is now a cert that $1000 is not far away now.
  March will be a great month for gold and i hope that gold stocks start the next legt up.

   $974....god it feels great to see this unfold!!! 

nice weekend to all cu monday

p.s i use www.thebulliondesk.com damn fine site...give it a go.


----------



## CamKawa

Muschu said:


> And, for the novice, where is/are the better/best places to buy into gold please?



The ASX code is GOLD.
http://markets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=gold&section=summary


----------



## ithatheekret

On a theory once discussed it was silver at $22 that signalled the next phase , saw it at $19 the other night , thought it might have been a mirage where I was ..... , but chit it's pooped into $20 and this is the door wobbler .

Must be close , it is kind of eurphoric to witness the run up , but I hate to think how much grains will be when it gets up to breach $1800 , doesn't worry me at all about the cornflakes , only 6% of the input there is product , but it's got to hit elsewhere too ..........

When the US credit cards debt starts imploding , only the numbers will save the institutions , not the transactions . The transactions will have to be repaid eventually , some may manage to stay broke forever and get away with it , but forever is a long time .


Not all good , so make hay whilst the sunshines , methinks it could be needed .


----------



## ShareIt

In times of all this economic uncertainty and the downfall of shares, gold seems to be making new highs... I was wondering if shares in gold companies is a good choice or better to go straight to the source? reasons of thought would be much appreciated


----------



## Sean K

ShareIt said:


> In times of all this economic uncertainty and the downfall of shares, gold seems to be making new highs... I was wondering if shares in gold companies is a good choice or better to go straight to the source? reasons of thought would be much appreciated



This was discussed about 300 pages ago, but in summary I think the conclusion was that gold stocks would suffer like the rest of the market, before then outperforming in line with gold. When that starts to occur, we will have to wait to find out. Most 'majors' (eg LGL, NCM) are still under their all time highs due to market crumbling while POGs gone parabolic.


----------



## CamKawa

*Gold output fails to match price surge*

RECORD gold prices have yet to prompt a production boost in Australia. A survey of local production by Melbourne-based Surbiton Associates showed Australian output for 2007 was near steady at 248 tonnes worth $A6.6 billion at an average of $A830 an ounce.

Gold prices have since hit $A1040 an ounce ”” a level that if held for the rest of 2008, could boost annual revenue by 25% to $A8.3 billion, assuming another year of near steady production.

The boost would be higher still if not for the revenue-sapping effects of the stronger dollar.

The survey, released yesterday, showed Australian gold production was 63 tonnes (2 million ounces) in the December (2007) quarter.
That was 3% higher than the preceding September (2007) quarter but down 4% on the December (2006) quarter.

For the 2007 calendar year, output was 248 tonnes, down by one tonne on 2006.

Surbiton director Sandra Close said there had been a substantial rise in the gold price in the past two years, with the annual average price rising from $A585 an ounce in 2005 to $A830 in 2007.

During 2007, the Australian gold price rose to a high of $A954.60 an ounce on December 28.

The $A1000-an-ounce milestone was reached on January 10 this year, and a record $A1042 an ounce was set on January 29. Gold was last at about $A1040 an ounce. Dr Close said that while a US-dollar price of $US1000 an ounce ($A1068) was widely expected, the strengthening of the Australian dollar had halted the upward trend of the gold price in Australian-dollar terms.

The final global rankings for 2007 production are not complete, although Surbiton has flagged the potential for China to have overtaken the beleaguered South African industry as the largest producer, with Australia continuing in third position.

Dr Close said that according to the China Gold Association, China's gold production totalled 270.5 tonnes in 2007. Official 2007 figures for South Africa are expected to be similar, but are not yet available from the Chamber of Mines.

"As well as the generally accepted factors which influence the price of gold, recent developments in the two largest gold-producing countries are expected to support the current upward pressure on the gold price," Dr Close said.

"Despite the rise in Chinese gold production, the country will remain a net importer of gold.

"China reported that demand for gold last year reached 326 tonnes and it is expected to increase further following the launch of gold trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in January."

Dr Close said South African production for 2008 was being affected by electricity shortages and power cuts, which were unlikely to be overcome in the short term. "South Africa's big gold producers were recently forced to close their mines for almost a week as a safety measure rather than risk not being able to get their workers back up to the surface," Dr Close said.

"Some reports suggest that South African gold production will fall 15% to 20% even if power levels can be maintained at 90%."

Newcrest's Telfer mine in Western Australia was Australia's biggest in 2007, with output of 623,566 ounces. The Kalgoorlie SuperPit of Newmont and Barrick was next biggest at 609,000 ounces.
www.surbiton.com.au

http://business.theage.com.au/gold-output-fails-to-match-price-surge/20080302-1wbn.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

How's it look on a shorter timescale, guru's?

If conditions deteriorate further with the pleb shares then it may try for the 1k? Giving it a good go as I speak.


----------



## MRC & Co

I think we could well and truly see this crack the 1000 very soon.

Inflation figures only getting worse, crude oil futures have just turned upwards again, good to see silver still in the green!

Ill be cheering for a breach of 1000 this week!


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> crude oil futures have just turned upwards again!




Spoke to soon


----------



## barrett

gold now 980.65.. finally something on the chart to get anything less than wildly bullish about in the short term..
firstly the breakdown out of this bearish wedge that formed the past few days in the purple on the hourly, sorry about the spaghetti...

secondly the breakdown - on high volume- below green neckline of the upward-sloping H&S which formed at the top of the purple wedge, on the 5-min.  

Upward-sloping H&S is not a reliable major top which kind of ties in with the possibility of a parabolic move through 1000 and beyond still coming up, but in the meantime maybe some weakness?  May be wrong here but it's just what I'm seeing right now... targets anyone? 
cheers


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> gold now 980.65.. finally something on the chart to get anything less than wildly bullish about in the short term..
> firstly the breakdown out of this bearish wedge that formed the past few days in the purple on the hourly, sorry about the spaghetti...
> 
> secondly the breakdown - on high volume- below green neckline of the upward-sloping H&S which formed at the top of the purple wedge, on the 5-min.
> 
> Upward-sloping H&S is not a reliable major top which kind of ties in with the possibility of a parabolic move through 1000 and beyond still coming up, but in the meantime maybe some weakness?  May be wrong here but it's just what I'm seeing right now... targets anyone?
> cheers





Got to hand it to you Barret, youve got more angles there than a corrugated ion roof after cyclone tracey.    My take is that the gold price rise on a US Monday is very bullish indeed and rarely happens.   Bloomberg starting to sound like us rampers on this thread so perhaps its lookout above.

Will be intersting to see


----------



## barrett

That's interesting about the Monday rise, yeah I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that article on the Bloomberg website 'gold outperforming financial assets'.. It's the first time I can ever remember seeing the word 'gold' on the Bloomberg site..  left the telly on last night and woke up to them saying gold was approaching 1000, made me think especially if the banks continue to go down, and journalists take notice of 1000, it could bring in some new buyers..

Something interesting on the daily perhaps... this resistance has been touched (or close enough) with 5 closes in 3 months.  

After a possible short-term pullback, could we be looking at a double breakout through 1000 _and_ overhead resistance?  With agricultural prices and central banks as they are I'm having trouble imagining anything more serious than a short term correction within what _could_ be a parabolic move forming through March.....


----------



## scuffler

being a gold bull and the fact i hold about 6-8 gold stocks i have a sneaking feeling we could see a $1000 tonight.........

imo once we have reached the first price target of $1025 this will level out for a bit and then people we WILL see a huge whoosh to the upside!!

  I take heart from Platinum's price movements.

This is whats going to happen!!!

Hold tight and dont be pressured into selling your goldies....the time right now is to be buying.THE GOLD BULL RUN HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN!

TAKE CARE.


----------



## MRC & Co

barrett said:


> made me think especially if the banks continue to go down, and journalists take notice of 1000, it could bring in some new buyers..




Trust me, they are already coming in!  I know a couple of guys who just got on the bandwagon and these guys are your "mum and dad" type investors, more of them and we could see a soybeans run!

Scuffler, ha ha, damn, you are even more optimistic than us rampers, but hey, we are all on the gold bull together, so lets hope the bulls remain well fed (if those farmers can afford the food!).


----------



## barrett

MRC & Co said:


> Trust me, they are already coming in!  I know a couple of guys who just got on the bandwagon and these guys are your "mum and dad" type investors, more of them and we could see a soybeans run!




I'm curious, do you know where they heard about gold from or why they decided to buy?  And do they have a history of investing in other assets?

Most of the people I know have been very very reluctant to buy, even when I talk through it with them, even ones that invest regularly.  They're starting to take notice of it now but not yet ready to commit capital.  When they are asking me which gold stocks to buy, then I'll get a bit uneasy.  I have an aunt who routinely calls me on the eve of major stockmarket corrections asking which stocks to buy.. she's still completely uninterested in gold, bless her.
cheers


----------



## MRC & Co

barrett said:


> I'm curious, do you know where they heard about gold from or why they decided to buy?  And do they have a history of investing in other assets?
> 
> Most of the people I know have been very very reluctant to buy, even when I talk through it with them, even ones that invest regularly.  They're starting to take notice of it now but not yet ready to commit capital.  When they are asking me which gold stocks to buy, then I'll get a bit uneasy.  I have an aunt who routinely calls me on the eve of major stockmarket corrections asking which stocks to buy.. she's still completely uninterested in gold, bless her.
> cheers




They both invest in shares, well more punt on shares.  

Both have been reading about gold on the net (not sure which site), but then asked me about it.  I told them I am on the gold bull at the moment.  I know one has already bought at least one gold stock, the other guy says he is buying in, but not sure on the status.  

Your Aunt calls you on the eve of major stockmarket corrections?  How does she know one is about to take place? ha ha.  Even we dont know that!  But I get your drift.  

Someone I know also asked me to invest for them, infact two have in the last week (after being wiped out buying banks and retail), but like you, makes me a little uneasy.


----------



## Temjin

Yes, the sentiment is really going up now. The daily reach for Kitco.com is an excellent sentiment indicator. That is in my opinion anyway after seeing another person who post this on ASF too. You can see the peak of traffic reach for kitco.com is coincidence with the peak of the previous "short" bull run back in May 2006. 

Right now, the reach is no where near the previous peak, but it has been trending up recently and actually broke the "double top" resistance. (ok, ignore the technical part, probably not valid for such chart) But the fact is that more and more "public individuals" are accessing the site to look for gold prices/info. 

When this gets really really high, and when friends/aunties/uncles who know nothing about investment start talking about investing in gold, then it's time to get out.


----------



## MRC & Co

Temjin said:


> When this gets really really high, and when friends/aunties/uncles who know nothing about investment start talking about investing in gold, then it's time to get out.




Interesting, so the chart is of the volume of those accessing info on gold at this particular website kitco.com?

No better time to pull out of the markets, better than any fundamental or technical indicator I beleive!


----------



## ShareIt

MRC & Co said:


> Trust me, they are already coming in!  I know a couple of guys who just got on the bandwagon and these guys are your "mum and dad" type investors, more of them and we could see a soybeans run!




Sounds like a bubble is building... I always believe if you hear the shoe shine boy giving you tips on buying gold, it might be a good time to take your profits


----------



## explod

ShareIt said:


> Sounds like a bubble is building... I always believe if you hear the shoe shine boy giving you tips on buying gold, it might be a good time to take your profits




Along time from the Aunties and Taxi drivers getting in in this neck of the woods, seasoned investors are still a long way off.   A bit of resistance towards 1000 US was a monty, in fact there will probably be a lot of resistance.  

And too much excitement always brings in Big Chief Burnin Bush's PPP, sure the'll tinkasumptin too.


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Along time from the Aunties and Taxi drivers getting in in this neck of the woods, seasoned investors are still a long way off.   A bit of resistance towards 1000 US was a monty, in fact there will probably be a lot of resistance.
> 
> And too much excitement always brings in Big Chief Burnin Bush's PPP, sure the'll tinkasumptin too.




And the PPP seem to wait for an audience


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Along time from the Aunties and Taxi drivers getting in in this neck of the woods



And beware the hairdresser/barber....always a clear sign. Mine was telling me about uranium about this time last year.....

Au's doing a floppy by the look, but overdue IMO. Hmm, I think I said that at 950...


----------



## scuffler

maybe not today then,lol.
But one fine morning in March we will wake up with 4 figures on the screen!

Have fun


----------



## ShareIt

scuffler said:


> maybe not today then,lol.
> But one fine morning in March we will wake up with 4 figures on the screen!
> 
> Have fun




That day is definitely not today... down $20 this morning


----------



## scuffler

i suppose with golds great run it had to have some profit taking.
It will gather itself again around current levels for another attack.

Great to watch.

Should be another "gift" day to pick up cheap gold stocks.

  Why would anyone still sell gold stocks is crazy...short sighted id-iots imo.

Stand fast and watch POG rise!!


----------



## CamKawa

Oil is down a couple of dollars and gold has fallen in sympathy. The market maybe nervous about OPEC's meeting tonight, should they cut supply the price of both oil and gold will climb.


----------



## ithatheekret

Don't forget about profit taking .

The funds won't .


----------



## Real1ty

CamKawa said:


> Oil is down a couple of dollars and gold has fallen in sympathy. The market maybe nervous about OPEC's meeting tonight, should they cut supply the price of both oil and gold will climb.




I think you will find the drop in oil was based on Technical Indicators and the presumed build of Crude Inventory levels, to be released today.

There has been amazing strength in the Oil futures recently and any attempts at shorting, i am talking from my pocket here, have been smashed with regular monotony.

Opec is virtually guaranteed to keep production as is, but they may include some comments about future cuts.

The recent gains in Oil and Gold have had a lot to do with the $ weakness and i think any significant moves for either will be $ driven.

Trichet was a little bit dovish in his chat with journos yesterday and while he didn't actually say it, there is a stronger feeling that the ECB might be more inclined to cut sooner than was first thought.

Interesting times indeed.


----------



## Kauri

*Rumours* that the US Gov is set to bail out Ambac
*Rumours* (for a week now) that commodities are in bubble territory and need popping...
Possibly may have some implications???
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Temjin

Ahhh, "da boyz" did it again by massively "suppress" the gold/silver prices between just after 10am NY time again. Don't people find this so recurring? 

I have been reading articles on the "manipulators" (i.e. central banks) hate rise in gold/silver prices and always act to suppress the prices at a particular time when it is needed. 

However, at a time like this, it would mean buying opportunity for those who aren't in yet cos the long term fundamentals and technicals still look really well.


----------



## MRC & Co

Wow, just woke up to see commodities hit the wall, not just gold!

Turn up in the banks so far this morning!  Only another little rally effort until the reality kicks in that this financial crisis has not ended yet and the commodities go on another run!  Needed a cooling down period anyways as Barrett said.  Too many consective strong days for gold IMO.

Time to top up a little.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Wow, just woke up to see commodities hit the wall, not just gold!
> 
> Turn up in the banks so far this morning!  Only another little rally effort until the reality kicks in that this financial crisis has not ended yet and the commodities go on another run!  Needed a cooling down period anyways as Barrett said.  Too many consective strong days for gold IMO.
> 
> Time to top up a little.




By Jove a bit of a shake out tones us all down but the party may be ready to begin now.   Hope you topped up, we'll see what goes tonight.


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> By Jove a bit of a shake out tones us all down but the party may be ready to begin now. Hope you topped up, we'll see what goes tonight.




AHHHHHHHH! I knew this! Ok, I didn't really but kinda expect people would view that fall as a buying opportunity. 

Was about to go out and buy some physical silver coins/bullions yesterday in the city, but was stuck at home sick.  grr


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> By Jove a bit of a shake out tones us all down but the party may be ready to begin now.   Hope you topped up, we'll see what goes tonight.




Yeh, was a great result overnight!  

Wonder how soon we will see the 1000 cracked?  Oil is through the roof!!!!!


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, was a great result overnight!
> 
> Wonder how soon we will see the 1000 cracked?  Oil is through the roof!!!!!




He he he, I never go out on a limb buuuut;  silver... my canary is lighting up, we could see 1000 tonight.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, this is really looking nice!

I would LOVE to wake up tomorrow morning to see the POG above 1000, just to cap off an already incredibly successful last couple weeks!  What is work again?


----------



## Kauri

*Rumour *has it that an ASIAN CB is lightening up its reserves and selling the greenback... good for US crosses and Gold... I guess..???

  Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## scuffler

rumour that the chinese will start to offload a trillion dollars...

you dont say,lol.

They are probably dumping them right now.

Us dollar index is going south and there is ntg they can do to help it.
heading to 52.

Chinese will buy Euro and gold.
Get them both in.....


----------



## ithatheekret

If non-farm payrolls drop back again this month , it will open up many doors bolted shut on currencies etc., especially the Euro . The unemployment rate moved up slightly in Feb to 5% from the Jan 4.9% . There's a few calls out for NFP to improve by 30K , if it doesn't and goes backwards again ...... strewth , the 1.50 stories will be contained to history .

Lots of Dejavu out there , Cable touched into the 2.011 area again .

US 8.30 AM (EST) is the starters gun spot for the month on a few days , tonight sees the NFP report , 13th retail sales and 14th CPI . 

Then of course the 18th for the rate decision at 2.30 PM (EST) .

.25/.50 or hold ..........

Must see viewing .


----------



## Temjin

Ahhhh, a power supply for the mines in South Africa increased from 90% to 95% did the trick and caused another sell off for every precious metals. 

Only 5% of power...everything is so news related right now. Still some $25 away from the $1000/oz mark though.


----------



## ithatheekret

What about all the margin calls , that are forcing liquidations . Even Carlyle units got smashed , profit taking from the last dip adds to it and we must not forget the immediate rush for cash that would have hit the Northern hemisphere . All hail the King .

The treasuries had me stumped , bonds got it wrong again ???

Wouldn't be the first time , but I don't see how treasuries will be safe haven stuff in a high inflationary period . They've got use to saying stagflation now , that's a worry .


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> What about all the margin calls , that are forcing liquidations . Even Carlyle units got smashed , profit taking from the last dip adds to it and we must not forget the immediate rush for cash that would have hit the Northern hemisphere . All hail the King .
> 
> The treasuries had me stumped , bonds got it wrong again ???
> 
> Wouldn't be the first time , but I don't see how treasuries will be safe haven stuff in a high inflationary period . They've got use to saying stagflation now , that's a worry .




Hi Itha, that's an interesting conundrum isn't it... either gold investors or bond investors are very, very wrong at the moment.

To the bond investors I say, look at who's in government.  If we had a pack of Volkers or Trichets running the Fed I'd be 100% in cash right now... but a Bernanke, and it's gold.  With the US dollar plummeting, it defies belief that treasuries would rally like this.  I'm interested in shorting the 10 year bond, I just have to work out the best way of doing it....and wait until it breaks its uptrend.  Short government money, long real money.. I'm liking that trade


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> Hi Itha, that's an interesting conundrum isn't it... either gold investors or bond investors are very, very wrong at the moment.
> 
> To the bond investors I say, look at who's in government.  If we had a pack of Volkers or Trichets running the Fed I'd be 100% in cash right now... but a Bernanke, and it's gold.  With the US dollar plummeting, it defies belief that treasuries would rally like this.  I'm interested in shorting the 10 year bond, I just have to work out the best way of doing it....and wait until it breaks its uptrend.  Short government money, long real money.. I'm liking that trade




We are creatures of habit.  There has for a long time been a perception (and to some degree a fact) that Governement (or large blue chip Co.) backed bonds (like property) are safe.

They are not and people did their shirts on bonds in the crash of 1930's and will again.

Unfortunately people do not learn untill they have lost thier shirts: period.   So it could be awhile yet before what we know to be common sense kicks in.

Property is a good analogy because everyone has a leg in it.   It has been a fully loaded goods train at full steam and even though the brakes are probably full on, the wheels will skids for miles down the track before it stops


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> We are creatures of habit.  There has for a long time been a perception (and to some degree a fact) that Governement (or large blue chip Co.) backed bonds (like property) are safe.
> 
> They are not and people did their shirts on bonds in the crash of 1930's and will again.
> 
> Unfortunately people do not learn untill they have lost thier shirts: period.   So it could be awhile yet before what we know to be common sense kicks in.
> 
> Property is a good analogy because everyone has a leg in it.   It has been a fully loaded goods train at full steam and even though the brakes are probably full on, the wheels will skids for miles down the track before it stops




Yeah that's a good analogy.. that's what I find most annoying about investing... the time it takes people to realise what's going on.. I avoided financial institutions altogether the past 3 years and missed out as people bid up the Commonwealth bank to 60 bucks.. but now people are down 40% at best, 100% at worst..  A bloke at my work loaded up big on the Rubicon trusts at Christmas, all on margin.. ouch - they went down 70-80%.  My dad was the only one who listened about gold.  Other ppl I know are still at 'disbelief' stage.   As Puplava says, bull market goes from skepticism  -> disbelief -> optimism -> euphoria.  The gold shares are not going nuts yet but at least we're making money not losing it!

If anyone else is interested in preparing to short US govt 10yr bonds let me know how you're doing it, cheers


----------



## cuttlefish

cash is paper.
houses aren't paper.
gold isn't paper.
productivity isn't paper.

I'll get gold in exchange for letting or selling a house.
I'll rent or buy a house in exchange for gold.
I'll get gold in exchange for productivity.
I'll let or sell a house in exchange for productivity.

paper, when its just paper, isn't worth much.

cash is just paper if the government backing the paper creates too much of it and/or backs it with junk productivity (i.e. when the govt takes on NINJA paper and gives out AAA rated (cash) paper in exchange for it then the AAA paper (cash) isn't worth much).  Paper/cash is ONLY backed by productivity - there is no asset backing it any more - there once was when there was a gold standard.  There's a lot of producers (people) in the world.  There isn't much gold.


----------



## Miner

Since there is no thread for Palladium so I am posting this here.

I noticed that in last one month Palladium has gone up by more than $100 per ounce when Gold has gone up by about $78.
To be more precise Gold on 4 Feb was US$ 915.2 , silver $17.08, Platinum $1798.9, Palladium $432.60 ; On 7 March at 11.41 AM Perth Mint quoted Gold US$988.46, Silver $20.53, Platinum $2189.97 and *Palladium hopping $529.61*. *ABout 25% jump in one month* !!
Due to Australian dollar strengthening the value is slightly lower extent after conversion.

Has any one followed Palladium and what are the comments from precious metal whiz kids ?


----------



## cuttlefish

gold.

'cos.  "thats gold".

Thats gold.

gold medals from Roman times.  Not palladium.

Jeruselum.  The Geat Pyramids.  Spanish Gallions.  The Incas.  Kiing Solomon. 

.... G.W. ....

Oil.   Purchased in .... ??!!??


----------



## Kauri

a coily developing on the 4Hr chart?? 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cuttlefish said:


> I'll get gold in exchange for letting or selling a house.
> I'll rent or buy a house in exchange for gold.
> I'll get gold in exchange for productivity.
> I'll let or sell a house in exchange for productivity.
> 
> paper, when its just paper, isn't worth much.
> 
> There isn't much gold.




So how far off are we to stipulating in our everyday financial interactions that we would like the trade to be settled in oz's of gold or silver? There appears to be murmurings of doubt about all things of fiat currency, and how vulnerable our bastions of money shuffling have become, or will be.

I am thinking of this in the light of the relatively disappointing leverage gold equities have been giving, although, a return of 16% since the start of the year compared to the general markets negative return highlights the gold paradigm of a store of value (who says gold doesn't pay interest?). The juniors have faired even worse. Or am I too greedy?

I say relative because gold equities are generally off their historical highs while the POG has made record highs with regularity. 

How do people feel about the proportion of their 'wealth' devoted to physical gold/silver. Is it a time to increase, or shall we wait for a big pullback, if it materialises at all?

What is the 'tipping' point to convert a greater proportion of cash to bullion?

How do we best leverage into gold/silver at this point in time?


----------



## MRC & Co

Uncle Festivus said:


> There appears to be murmurings of doubt about all things of fiat currency.
> 
> I say relative because gold equities are generally off their historical highs while the POG has made record highs with regularity.
> 
> Is it a time to increase, or shall we wait for a big pullback, if it materialises at all?
> 
> How do we best leverage into gold/silver at this point in time?




All 4 place good questions.

Firstly, definately huge doubts are creeping up about fiat currency, another thing which is simply going to push precious metals higher and higher.

As you say, the market has been SMASHED, so while gold has made record highs, I dont think you can expect equities to make the same highs.  Complete fear in the market in general at the moment.

Is it time to increase or wait for a big pullback?  This is my main question.  Will it even materialise at all?  I have jumped aboard and loaded up.  Who wants regular stocks?  Who wants wants cash?  Who wants property?  Where is the money going to go?  Has to go somewhere, commodities are the only place I see, and soaring inflation will back up the arguement for precious metals. 

How do we best leaverage into gold and silver at this point in time?  Dont know.  Seems everyone has their own methods.  At the moment, I am just holding equities, some already in production, others coming online soon.  Just steering clear of anything spec (exploration).  I like the ability to be able to sell at the click of a mouse button should the market come crashing down and the possible upside equities produce should the market bounce.  

Now what was this recent rise in banks on Friday and fall in commodities, PPT?  Who would want to seriously own banks in comparison to precious metals at this time?

Big thing for me, is I want to see a fall in the AUD.  I think economic indicators and property markets will start to get hit as time catches up with them.  We know they lag the stockmarket, especially property.  RBA rate hikes are starting to hit over the next year or so also.  Should see them leave rates on hold or even cut into the future, bringing some IRP (interest rate parity) back to our dollar.  Inflation is high here, not just in the US, so PPP should kick in over the medium-term and bring all things back in line.  I.e. fall in the AUD an rise in POG in AUD.  

Just a few thoughts.  

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Now what was this recent rise in banks on Friday and fall in commodities, PPT?




Note:  I am talking about the US Friday night our time.


----------



## cuttlefish

Uncle Festivus said:


> So how far off are we to stipulating in our everyday financial interactions that we would like the trade to be settled in oz's of gold or silver? There appears to be murmurings of doubt about all things of fiat currency, and how vulnerable our bastions of money shuffling have become, or will be.
> 
> I am thinking of this in the light of the relatively disappointing leverage gold equities have been giving, although, a return of 16% since the start of the year compared to the general markets negative return highlights the gold paradigm of a store of value (who says gold doesn't pay interest?). The juniors have faired even worse. Or am I too greedy?
> 
> I say relative because gold equities are generally off their historical highs while the POG has made record highs with regularity.




Good questions and only the passage of time will deliver the correct answers but here's my thoughts anyway.

I think to some extent we are seeing the start of the move away from USD pricing in regular speculation about OPEC moving away from USD pricing. Personally given that the Euro has its own share of issues I would think a move to gold based pricing for oil wouldn't be silly from an OPEC standpoint and I think if that occurred it would directly underpin the value of gold.  I also think there would be extremely powerful undercurrents of opposition to a move like this by the backers of currencies and holders of currency backed assets.  Recent moves by sovereign wealth funds to 'bail out' some of the bigger US banking situations recently I view not necessarily as a move to protect the currency/US economic system over the long term, but more as a short to medium term measure to provide stability whilst allowing possible shifts of assets out of USD backed classes into other classes. 

The collapse of a significant bank or two in the US would also begin an impact as will a continuing slide in the USD.  I guess it does depend a bit on how big the sub-prime iceberg really is and the extent of undiscovered counterparty risk floating through the system.

What I do know is that it always takes time for a countercylical move to catch alight, but when it does it always runs further than expected as well.

I do still think its relatively early days for the gold bull run (and to a fair extent the commodities bull run as well) - because we've only just touched on 25 year historic highs so we're still bouncing along the bottom imo compared to where things could go. But if it gets to the point that people really do start to doubt currency and doubt the safety of money in the bank  (conceptually the vast majority of the population has no awareness of the level of risk the banks carry and the level of debt vs the level of cash held) then the magnitude of the move would be large because the vast majority of the population does not own significant quantities of gold and doesn't really see gold as an investment class.

On a volume basis there really is only a very small quantity of gold per capita in the world vs other goods and commodities.

In relation to the junior gold stocks - some of the quality ones have already done quite well, but that is largely based on progressive results rather than reflecting the gold price movement - though some are reflecting a combination.   I think it would be interesting to see what effect a proper breach of the $US 1000 mark would bring.   Also a collapse in a bank or two or some bonanza production results and the commencement of dividend distribution by one of the near producers cum producer would be a positive as well.   The VRE debarcle put a bit of a damper on things in this sector as well it seems. But this also highlights how difficult it is to find and produce gold - the supply really is quite limited at current prices and it will take significant price rises to change this situation - particularly if wage and general inflation bring up the cost side as well.


----------



## Whiskers

MRC & Co said:


> Big thing for me, is I want to see a fall in the AUD.  I think economic indicators and property markets will start to get hit as time catches up with them.  We know they lag the stockmarket, especially property.  RBA rate hikes are starting to hit over the next year or so also.  Should see them leave rates on hold or even cut into the future, bringing some IRP (interest rate parity) back to our dollar.  Inflation is high here, not just in the US, so PPP should kick in over the medium-term and bring all things back in line.  I.e. fall in the AUD an rise in POG in AUD.
> 
> Just a few thoughts.
> 
> Cheers




I tend to agree MRC & CO... or rather conversely a firming of the USD for awhile. I think that will settle some nerves for awhile. For that reason I think (at least hope) the FED will not cut heavy this time.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> I tend to agree MRC & CO... or rather conversely a firming of the USD for awhile. I think that will settle some nerves for awhile. For that reason I think (at least hope) the FED will not cut heavy this time.





What is being missed by some is the FIAT currency situation.  As Kyosaki so well spelt out in the U tube presentation of the "Silver" thread time and again "cash is trash"   The sub-prime, credit cards, you name it debt is rife and production (earning by the sweat from the brow) is out the window.  Money is backed by nothing but government/fed promise, IT IS TRASH.  Inflation is the devaluation of money to nothing, repeat "cash is trash"

In Australia the same thing, trying to rationalise some sensibility to what governments and central banks can or cannot do is long gone.   The doomsayers have been correct over the last few years.  Glad I listened to some of them.

Gold has value, it is a proven store of wealth going back 4000 years and survived all the crashes of the past.  It will now.   If you are fair dinkum about financial survival the only thing at the moment is gold, silver and the good gold stocks, when it goes through the roof and property goes down then a transfer from one to the other will be the way.

I recommend those who have not seen it to go to the Silver thread and play the U tube video, was posted up about 4 or 5 days ago.

Cheers on this wonderful holiday for the workers, who will be the ones to bring back the real wealth (work).   Proud that I was a AWU member when a shearer in my youth.     explod

Have a beer


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> What is being missed by some is the FIAT currency situation.   Have a beer




This was mentioned above by myself and Uncle.  Definately fear creeping in, just need it to really drive home now!

Having a beer as we speak!  

Cheers :alcohol:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cuttlefish said:


> But this also highlights how difficult it is to find and produce gold - the supply really is quite limited at current prices and it will take significant price rises to change this situation - particularly if wage and general inflation bring up the cost side as well.




What it also highlights is that the 'traditional' gold countries are basically explored out eg South Africa and Oz. I was lamenting the poor performance of one of my juniors with the companies MD, via email, and he indicated that the real 'company making' gold discoveries will be in countries that have been under explored and/or have sovereign risk, and that they may be focusing on these areas outside of Oz in the future.

This is what makes me inclined to alter the equities/physical gold allocation in favour of physical, as I think the Oz co's will face mounting & continuing pressures on costs/profit margins unless there is a commensurate/compensating rise in the $AU POG . Getting more direct exposure to the gold price will be my focus for now I think, probably trading via CFD's and investing physical on the dips.


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> What is being missed by some is the FIAT currency situation.




Not missed on me mate. Just looking to profit from the trade in the nominal value of paper money and trade/convert some of my gold equities into more tangible assets and benifits... like a nice cold beer.  

You won't find much cash sitting around doing nothing at my place. 

After all 'paper' money is only a contract to supply goods or services to it's face value. I agree with your point that saving 'the paper' is not profitable... so I continue to see it as a 'contract' which is constantly being traded for profit... such as a boost in Aus gold shares with some appreciation of the USD.


----------



## barrett

Looking at the short term.. the gold price is mainly being set by a see-saw with the downward forces of the deflating asset markets at one end and the upward force from the Fed's speech and actions at the other..  eg in mid Jan as the Fed played tough on inflation, gold plunged from 914 to 850 alongside equities.. then the Fed slashed rates unexpectedly and it was back at 936 within a few days.

The Fed isn't due to act until Tuesday week, and gold and the ag commodities have been faltering along with the equity markets as another wave of deflation-fear takes hold.. 

Given the amount of hot money in commodities it wouldn't be too surprising to see a further fall there as well as in equities in the short term until the Fed steps in with what the futures market is right now saying will be either a 75bp cut (94% chance), or a 100bp cut! (6% chance).  As usual the markets won't believe the rate cut until it's delivered.

Gold is sitting just above a critical support line (in purple) and IF we get an hourly close below say 970, that could well bring in selling down to support at 940-945.  944 would be 50% retracement of the recent run.. it's also the target level if the current formation is interpreted as a head and shoulders and the shoulderline breaks in the next day.  The red trendline is also potential support around that mid 940's area.  

On the other hand a strong rally on high volume right now could establish 970 as a base for a move through 1000 - but at this point I am expecting the correction.. I may be wrong, just how I see it right now, other viewpoints welcome..


----------



## MRC & Co

Barrett, I completely agree with your short-term analysis and if it does break below support I will be stoped out of pretty much all my gold positions (if not all).


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> What it also highlights is that the 'traditional' gold countries are basically explored out eg South Africa and Oz. I was lamenting the poor performance of one of my juniors with the companies MD, via email, and he indicated that the real 'company making' gold discoveries will be in countries that have been under explored and/or have sovereign risk, and that they may be focusing on these areas outside of Oz in the future.
> 
> This is what makes me inclined to alter the equities/physical gold allocation in favour of physical, as I think the Oz co's will face mounting & continuing pressures on costs/profit margins unless there is a commensurate/compensating rise in the $AU POG . Getting more direct exposure to the gold price will be my focus for now I think, probably trading via CFD's and investing physical on the dips.





I think we are all too used to instant gratification.  Certainly most rich gold areas are on the wane.  However there is a great deal of low grade stuff in Australia which are being eyed off now.   There is no doubt in my mind that $1,500 plus gold in all currencies is just around the corner.  Maybe it will be after the presidential election, maybe not, not relevant.  Money is stuffed this time because the productivity factor is now coming home to roost, is that r..t ed.

Yes overseas there is new green pastures, Andean in SA is a sign of that, and China are finding new places.  

However at a certain price, the quarts at Avoca, Maryborough, Bendigo, Stawell, Ararat and many others at plus $1,500 will be humming with front end loaders, trucks and crushers.   And it is just laying on the ground in these places everywhere.

But if you want to be serious, things like SBM, AVO and OXR have immediate and great prospects at just $1,000.  That's where we are.  Have to pinch yourself sometimes.    

However I watch RNG, with Owen Heggarty on the Board, things like GDR, MMN, CTO, BDG and so many others will be bloody dandy when gold goes permanently beyond $2,000 an ounce in all currencies.

Remember "cash is trash"............""CASH IS TRASH"" 

love that bloke


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> The Fed isn't due to act until Tuesday week, and gold and the ag commodities have been faltering along with the equity markets as another wave of deflation-fear takes hold..
> 
> Given the amount of hot money in commodities it wouldn't be too surprising to see a further fall there as well as in equities in the short term until the Fed steps in with what the futures market is right now saying will be either a 75bp cut (94% chance), or a 100bp cut! (6% chance). As usual the markets won't believe the rate cut until it's delivered.



US CPI figures are due out on the 14th, which may provide some direction for the POG as well.

A possible double leg up coming?


----------



## scuffler

i thought this was a good article.
I am holding enough gold stocks (and i am down on most) but i expect it to turn soon enough.History shows this.

From The Sunday Times
March 9, 2008
Gold is the ultimate safe-haven
Merryn on Money

THERE is chaos in the jewellery markets. The price of wedding rings is changing so fast that that there is no way you can pop into a shop in Hatton Garden, London, for a quote on a Friday and expect the price to stand on a Monday.

Jewellers have been reporting a rush from clients wanting to sell old necklaces and bracelets, and banks are pouring out press releases reminding people to make sure all their favourite things are properly covered. The average British household holds around £1,785 worth of jewellery, says Abbey, but 14% of us have absolutely no insurance for it at all. So what’s with the sudden sense of panic? It is all about precious metals. Having paused for breath briefly last month, the silver, platinum and gold prices have been soaring again: gold is up 15% this year and is now trading at $990 (£495) an ounce.

Gold is the ultimate safe haven investment, and there is nothing investors need more right now than a safe haven. Recession in the US is all but certain (Warren Buffett thinks there is already one) with house prices still falling at speed, and data out last week showing the biggest one-month fall in construction spending since the early 1990s (it has been one of the biggest drivers of US growth in the last few years).

At the same time the credit crunch appears to be steadily getting worse rather than better, with securitisation markets barely functioning, and estimates of the total cost of the sub-prime crisis moving towards an extraordinary $1 trillion.

Then there is inflation. In the UK the price of goods leaving factories saw their highest price rise for at least nine years (when the records began) in February. The BDO Inflation index, which collates the price expectations of business managers, has also hit a new high.

Many managers � and this is the worrying bit for consumers � say that they intend to pass price rises on to us rather than take a hit to their profits. The fact that agricultural commodity prices are still rising at rates that even the biggest bulls (me included) could never have forecast doesn’t exactly help either. Nor does the fact that basic wages in China are increasing and are expected to rise by up to 21% this year, which will push up the prices of low-end manufactured goods here.

So what next? I suspect that the gold price is going to go an awful lot higher. Until now it has been a niche investment. I’ve been writing about investing in gold here for a good four years, but still the money going into the precious metal has come more from a few governments (Russia increased its holdings by 44 tonnes last year alone, and now holds 438 tonnes in total), dedicated “goldbugs” and the big hedge funds and institutional investors.

Yet now the dollar really is in freefall and the gold price is grabbing the front pages by flirting with $1,000 an ounce. It seems likely that some of the Asian governments which hold billions of dollars but little gold might now look to change this balance. Ordinary investors might now also jump on the bandwagon in droves, partly out of fear and partly because little else is rising (anyone else noticed that the FTSE 100 is trading slightly below where it was 10 years ago?)

There is not much supply around to meet all this new demand � the miners are still struggling to get production up and the recent power problems in South Africa are hampering their efforts to do so: you can’t send workers a couple of miles down into deep mines if you can’t be sure of your power supply. The gold supply is rising at 2%-3% a year at best.

Given how fast it has been moving, the gold price is going to be volatile from here, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t hold it and it certainly doesn’t mean that you should be trading in and out of it (far too hard!). Instead, just have it and hold it: the long-term trend for gold is, I think, up relative to all currencies. Note that gold’s last inflation-adjusted high was near $2,000.

How do you get in? You can hold physical gold (just pop down to Hatton Garden and buy some) although I’m told that a lot of dealers are running out of the kind of little ingots and coins small investors like to buy. Otherwise there are London-listed gold exchange-traded funds or there is the Merrill Lynch Gold and General Fund which I have held for years and am resting all my dreams of a happy retirement on.

Right now it might also make sense to hold a few individual miners for the simple reason that their share prices have not gone up along with the gold price, despite the fact that this is more than covering their rising costs (of equipment, staff and power). This isn’t a situation that is likely to last � usually in a gold bull market, gold stock prices rise faster than the price of physical gold and I’d expect that to start happening soon this time round too. Among the majors, Barrick Gold, one of the world’s biggest producers, looks like the best bet right now. It doesn’t have the political or power problems of the South African mines, given that it mainly operates in Aus-tralia and the US. Despite rising costs, its earnings still rose 28% in the fourth quarter of last year.

An ex-geologist hedge fund manager friend, fresh from a big mining conference in Toronto, offers one more tip, AIM-listed explorer Leyshon Resources. Leyshon operates in China (now the world’s largest producer of gold) where it expects to start production early next year. It is well managed and it looks cheap � like those of many other miners its shares have barely budged in the last year.

Finally, if you are looking to buy a wedding ring but are finding prices a bit much, consider palladium. To the untrained eye it looks just like platinum (as, if we are honest, do silver and white gold): it’s just much cheaper.

Merryn Somerset Webb is a former stockbroker and now editor of Money Week. Her views are personal and investors should always seek professional advice


----------



## MRC & Co

scuffler said:


> Right now it might also make sense to hold a few individual miners for the simple reason that their share prices have not gone up along with the gold price, despite the fact that this is more than covering their rising costs (of equipment, staff and power). This isn’t a situation that is likely to last � usually in a gold bull market, gold stock prices rise faster than the price of physical gold and I’d expect that to start happening soon this time round too.




Thanks Scuffler.

Excellent article and all the things I have added up in my head.  I just see no way other than up for gold in the medium-term, everything appears positive.  Not sure if all you guys feel the same sentiments.  

The part quoted is as I stated earlier to Uncles post, as to why I am holding gold equities.  Then again, this can also bring more downside with further falls in global indicies.

Perhaps the GOLD ticker is another decent way to avoid equity contingencies in addition to a hedge against the AUD.........

Just a thought.


----------



## MRC & Co

CamKawa said:


> US CPI figures are due out on the 14th, which may provide some direction for the POG as well.
> 
> A possible double leg up coming?




I cannot wait for this day!


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Thanks Scuffler.
> 
> Excellent article and all the things I have added up in my head.  I just see no way other than up for gold in the medium-term, everything appears positive.  Not sure if all you guys feel the same sentiments.
> 
> The part quoted is as I stated earlier to Uncles post, as to why I am holding gold equities.  Then again, this can also bring more downside with further falls in global indicies.
> 
> Perhaps the GOLD ticker is another decent way to avoid equity contingencies in addition to a hedge against the AUD.........
> 
> Just a thought.




I do not understand why there is the perception that gold stocks go with the markets.

LGL 12 months ago $3.00, today $4.

NCM  12 months ago $21 today $38

SBM  then .50c today .88

could go on and on.   The markets at 18 month lows, rest my case.

Gold is going great, what more does everyone want ??????   ??????


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> I do not understand why there is the perception that gold stocks go with the markets.
> 
> LGL 12 months ago $3.00, today $4.
> 
> NCM  12 months ago $21 today $38
> 
> SBM  then .50c today .88
> 
> could go on and on.   The markets at 18 month lows, rest my case.
> 
> Gold is going great, what more does everyone want ??????   ??????




Have a look at the relationship over time between gold equities and the S&P200 (or all ords).  Not including this latest trend, is it inverse or direct?  Very much direct.

Gold has hit all-time highs lately (including the GOLD ticker which is in AUD), have all gold equities?  No effects of broader indices there?

Of course when the POG rises, gold equities will generally rise also, but not as fast relative to POG movements if indices are falling.  

Check out the trends, they speak for themselves.  Remember, intermarket analysis is also important, not just TA and FA.  

Cheers


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Have a look at the relationship over time between gold equities and the S&P200 (or all ords).  Not including this latest trend, is it inverse or direct?  Very much direct.
> 
> Gold has hit all-time highs lately (including the GOLD ticker which is in AUD), have all gold equities?  No effects of broader indices there?
> 
> Of course when the POG rises, gold equities will generally rise also, but not as fast relative to POG movements if indices are falling.
> 
> Check out the trends, they speak for themselves.  Remember, intermarket analysis is also important, not just TA and FA.
> 
> Cheers




Of course, short term volatility due to uncertainty; but those gold stocks sure look better than the banks which have gone down in the same period and many other general stocks which have gone sideways.   The average 25% rise in gold stocks is pretty reasonable.

The gold indecies in the US and Canada are hitting all time highs.  Our dollar has caused some of the offset here but when it is soon realised that the US curency is palying little part in the overall markets that will soon change.

Anyway I am happy with the steady rise and expect it to continue.  And intermarket; is why I sit up nearly all nights, direct watchiing is most important.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Anyway I am happy with the steady rise and expect it to continue.  And intermarket; is why I sit up nearly all nights, direct watchiing is most important.




I agree.  ha ha, you sure do sit up nearly all nights, when do you sleep?

I was simply replying to your quote _"I do not understand why there is the perception that gold stocks go with the markets".  _Because markets do have an effect on gold equities.  Buy the real thing if you want to negate that problem, but then you miss out on a possible bounce in global indicies.  We are, afterall, looking at relative returns, as opposed to absolute.

Either way, as you say, anything gold at the moment, is.......well..........gold! :grinsking


----------



## Kauri

The talk of larger margin calls on hedge funds is a possible negative for commodities markets with funds likely to have to find cash from current profitable trades such as commodities. The recent slides in gold last week and increased volatility shows increasing signs of a top in the yellow metal, with risk for a move lower. 
 and the coily thing seems to have broken..

 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> The talk of larger margin calls on hedge funds is a possible negative for commodities markets with funds likely to have to find cash from current profitable trades such as commodities. The recent slides in gold last week and increased volatility shows increasing signs of a top in the yellow metal, with risk for a move lower.
> and the coily thing seems to have broken..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




The news on those funds like Blackstone, Carlyle etc. is terrible.. and Carlyle are rumoured to manage funds for a number of ex-presidents etc..

Soybeans were hammered 13.4% in the last 2 days of last week.. rice, corn also hammered.  This after those markets went parabolic..

Following the gold action minute by minute last week gave a pretty clear picture of a lot of new speculators being fleeced over and over again.. which also suggests an interim top.

With the fundamentals still strong for the ag commodities though and the Fed focussed on saving the banks it's hard to imagine a very serious selloff in gold.. maybe just enough to shake off some easy riders?  Do you have any targets coming up on the EW, Kauri? cheers


----------



## CamKawa

The POG locally is up $13.95 and has hit an all time high of $1062 as the AUD slips down to .9163 cents. Scroll down to the bottom of the page and look at the Exchange Rates table for an update. http://www.kitco.com/


----------



## scuffler

explod said:


> I do not understand why there is the perception that gold stocks go with the markets.
> 
> LGL 12 months ago $3.00, today $4.
> 
> NCM  12 months ago $21 today $38
> 
> SBM  then .50c today .88
> 
> could go on and on.   The markets at 18 month lows, rest my case.
> 
> Gold is going great, what more does everyone want ??????   ??????




Thats a fair point.
But if you only invest in the high risk gold stocks like PRE/SAU it doesnt always go up,lol.

Listen my tactics are to hold for 12-24 months every gold stock i have.....pure and simple.

Now today as much as the 2 i  have mentioned have gone down ....todays price interests me not...(ok i am down on paper-big deal) but what the price is this time a year from now!!!

Stick to a stratergy and stay with it. The bigger fish are squeezing alot of stocks down and causing many to lose their shirts. You only lose your shirt when u sell out for a loss.......i am standing firm,losing more hairs but staying focused on where the POG is heading...and thats alot higher than $1600 when u adjust the inflation side of things.

Cheers and if it gets too much switch off the screen and go for a run on the beach...works for me!!:sheep::sheep:


----------



## scuffler

got this off bloomberg this morning.
I think the FED meet on the 18th and we can bet wall street will keep the pressure on stocks until they get the rate cut!!! Rates are going to zerooooooooooooo 

Gold Gains in London as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Spurs Buying

By Danielle Rossingh

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in London on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, weakening the dollar and spurring some investors to buy precious metals as an alternative investment to stocks and bonds.

Gold has rallied more than 34 percent since Sept. 18, when the Fed began cutting interest rates as losses mounted in the subprime mortgage market. The U.S. currency fell toward an eight- year low against the yen, and neared a record low versus the euro today, partly on anticipation the Fed will cut rates by at least 75 basis points when it meets on March 18 to avert a recession.

``When the Fed lowers interest rates, that's ultimately bullish for the gold price,'' Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in London, said in an interview today. ``It will put downward pressure on the dollar, and raises concern about the slowdown of the U.S. economy.''

Gold for immediate delivery advanced as much as $7.48 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $980.67 an ounce, and was at $973.08 an ounce as of 10:28 a.m. local time in London. The metal jumped to a record $992.05 an ounce on March 6 as the dollar declined against the euro and crude oil reached a record.

Silver fell 10 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $20.06 an ounce. It reached $21.23 on March 6, the highest since 1980.

Gold may rebound this week as a slumping dollar and soaring energy costs boost demand for the precious metal as an inflation hedge.

Sixteen of 25 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Melbourne to Chicago on March 6 and March 7 advised buying gold, which fell 97 cents to $973.20 an ounce last week in London. Five said to sell, and four were neutral.

`Stunning Year'

``2008 is set to be stunning year for gold,'' Jim Lennon and Max Layton, London-based analysts with Macquarie Bank, said. Gold may trade at $960 an ounce this year, or 20 percent higher than previously forecast in October, partly as a weaker dollar and strong oil price bolsters investment demand, the bank said in a note e-mailed late on March 7.

Gold held in London-listed exchange-traded funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. rose to a record 834,329 ounces, while silver jumped to an all-time high of 9.66 million ounces, the company said on March 5.

Gold may advance to as high as $1,000 an ounce by next week, Lehman's Widmer forecast.

Surprised Analysts

Gold's decline last week surprised a majority of analysts surveyed Feb. 28 and Feb. 29. The survey has forecast prices accurately in 125 of 201 weeks, or 63 percent of the time.

Platinum for immediate delivery in London slid $2, or 0.1 percent, to $2,020 an ounce. Palladium fell $7.50, or 1.5 percent, to $481 an ounce.

``We should see a deficit,'' in both platinum and palladium this year, analysts with Stuttgart, Germany-based Tiberius Asset Management AG, said in a note e-mailed today. Platinum may gain further this year because ``inventories are at rock bottom and will scarcely be able to play a price-dampening role.''

Platinum may trade at $1,775 an ounce this year, or 20.3 percent more than previously predicted, partly as power disruptions curbed supply from top producer South Africa, Macquarie said.

To graph technical gauges for gold: Moving Averages Relative Strength Index Fibonacci Back Test Technical Gauges 

:jump:


----------



## Firdy

We know that Gold's last peak was around $ 800/oz in the mid late '80's.   I saw in a newspaper article that, inflation adjusted, this equates to around $ 2,200 in today's terms.

Is it right to compare peaks?   Comparative factors between now and the '80's that increase upward pressure on the current gold price are:
- the US economy is weaker
- gold production is lower (for now)
- South African production is in trouble (power limitations)
- gold demand is higher and growing (from India, China and industry) 
- global economic uncertainty is higher (global warming - Islamic war vs cold war??)

Maybe it can't reach the same $ 2200 inflation adjusted number, but I can't think of too many negative factors that counter a conservative proposition that gold will go to $ 1,500 to per ounce.

Can anyone give me any negative factors?
- strengthening of the US dollar - not for a while.

So if Gold is undervalued relative to the '80's, it means that Gold stocks are undervalued.

The negative factor in this statement is to be wary of fly-by nighters in for the quick buck during the boom, lying about their resource and their ability to produce.

I have taken the time to visit some Gold Mining companies to make sure their prospects are real before I have put my dough up.   I am looking for stocks that are conservative, real producers, who's management have a lifetime of experience, and who would be recently into production, or coming into production within the next six months.  These are the companies who's stocks will way outperform gold price growth.


----------



## scuffler

i know its a little off topic but i hope you guys keep it on this thread!


Retirement Planning:

    * If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00
    * With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1000.00
    * With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5.00 left
    * If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Air Lines stock, you would have $49.00 left.

But, if you had purchased $1,000.00 worth of beer/wine one year ago, drank all the beer/wine, then turned in the cans/bottles for the aluminium and glass recycling REFUND, you would have had $214.00.

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to Drink heavily and recycle!


----------



## scuffler

i know its a little off topic but i hope you guys keep it on this thread!


Retirement Planning:

    * If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00
    * With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1000.00
    * With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5.00 left
    * If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Air Lines stock, you would have $49.00 left.

But, if you had purchased $1,000.00 worth of beer/wine one year ago, drank all the beer/wine, then turned in the cans/bottles for the aluminium and glass recycling REFUND, you would have had $214.00.


:band
Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to Drink heavily and recycle!


----------



## explod

scuffler said:


> i know its a little off topic but i hope you guys keep it on this thread!
> 
> 
> Retirement Planning:
> 
> * If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00
> * With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1000.00
> * With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5.00 left
> * If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Air Lines stock, you would have $49.00 left.
> 
> But, if you had purchased $1,000.00 worth of beer/wine one year ago, drank all the beer/wine, then turned in the cans/bottles for the aluminium and glass recycling REFUND, you would have had $214.00.
> 
> 
> :band
> Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to Drink heavily and recycle!





Not off topic at all, beer is pure gold when you have had a few; and a few ramps the thread a bit as well,  he he and ho


----------



## MRC & Co

Ouch, practically every single one of my mining stops got triggered today (from Zinc, Copper, Coal and Nickel plays) and some too late so I ended up actually loosing capital!  

Only ones left are the gold stocks, as I used horizontal stops for these as opposed to trailing stops because I beleive in the fundamentals of gold and dont want to get caught by whipsaws.  However, one of them EQI, is coming somewhat close to being breached!  

OGC and SGX are still holding relatively firm.

Might have to buy up some of GOLD, these equity problems are starting to fukc me off!


----------



## Aussiejeff

MRC & Co said:


> Ouch, practically every single one of my mining stops got triggered today (from Zinc, Copper, Coal and Nickel plays) and some too late so I ended up actually loosing capital!
> 
> Only ones left are the gold stocks, as I used horizontal stops for these as opposed to trailing stops because I beleive in the fundamentals of gold and dont want to get caught by whipsaws.  However, one of them EQI, is coming somewhat close to being breached!
> 
> OGC and SGX are still holding relatively firm.
> 
> Might have to buy up some of GOLD, these equity problems are starting to fukc me off!




With volatile stock market sentiment the way it is ATM, a *BLINK* can cost you heaps....

AJ


----------



## MRC & Co

Aussiejeff said:


> With volatile stock market sentiment the way it is ATM, a *BLINK* can cost you heaps....
> 
> AJ




I know, thats exactly what happened to me!  Since I watch closely, I trigger my own stops.  Bad mistake, from now on, they are being done electronically with this kind of volatility.

Ah well, if the XMJ continues to fall,  I will be counting my lucky stars! 

Sentiment has truly turned downwards once again for another run!  Surely the big guns are going to come in and start buying up on the cheap sometime in the next few weeks, causing another bounce as per usual.


----------



## Temjin

MRC & Co said:


> I know, thats exactly what happened to me! Since I watch closely, I trigger my own stops. Bad mistake, from now on, they are being done electronically with this kind of volatility.
> 
> Ah well, if the XMJ continues to fall, I will be counting my lucky stars!
> 
> Sentiment has truly turned downwards once again for another run! Surely the big guns are going to come in and start buying up on the cheap sometime in the next few weeks, causing another bounce as per usual.




It's not just equities alone, MRC & Co, almost EVERYTHING got shot down recently, massive liquidation. Gold, silver, platinum, pallatium, all base metals, some soft commodities. 

Looks like good buying opportunities for some of the commodities with good long term fundamentals. PMs and food.


----------



## MRC & Co

Temjin said:


> It's not just equities alone, MRC & Co, almost EVERYTHING got shot down recently, massive liquidation. Gold, silver, platinum, pallatium, all base metals, some soft commodities.
> 
> Looks like good buying opportunities for some of the commodities with good long term fundamentals. PMs and food.




Yes, most commodities have been shot down recently.  

However, POG did not move much overnight if not mistaken?  Yet as their equities are part of the minerals index XMJ, some were taken to the cleaners!

This is what I was referring too.

As for good prices, I agree, however many of my stops were triggered today so Im hoping this was not a HUGE whipsaw or I will be pizzed!!!!!  

No way Im dipping my fingers back into the commodity pot until at least the run into close Friday, when I expect inflationary fears (and actual figures) to help whip the commodity boom back into action!  Might see a further fall over the next couple days perhaps?  As the banks try to rally in vain.


----------



## cuttlefish

Gee there's a lot of AAA rated debt about these days isn't there.

I just lent $20m to my neighbours dog, got it insured by Ambac and swapped the debt for US treasuries for 28 days lol - thank you Bernanke.


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> As for good prices, I agree, however many of my stops were triggered today so Im hoping this was not a HUGE whipsaw or I will be pizzed!!!!!






Good one market volatility!  

:whip:chainsaw:


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Good one market volatility!
> 
> :whip:chainsaw:





Yes but range bound also.   The next move will be large and as the Wall Street spruiking dies away we can expect it to the upside.  I am holding my positions.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Yes but range bound also.   The next move will be large and as the Wall Street spruiking dies away we can expect it to the upside.  I am holding my positions.




I completely agree Explod.

Must say however, I am kind of glad I did get triggered on my base metal stocks.  I think precious metals are a bit safer currently.  Base metals will get hit if the US recession (and I think we can say safely they ARE in recession, housing foreclosures are going to keep on running for at least the rest of this year, before subsiding but still remaining high next year I beleive, due to time lags it takes for this to actually come into effect), does have a decent impact on China (which I think it will).  Not so sure about this decoupling theory in such an integrated global market.

Inflation is the only thing I see as a given at the moment, while this does help most commodities, gold is not bound by economic growth limitations.

Just one opinion at least.


----------



## Temjin

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, most commodities have been shot down recently.
> 
> However, POG did not move much overnight if not mistaken?  Yet as their equities are part of the minerals index XMJ, some were taken to the cleaners!
> 
> This is what I was referring too.
> 
> As for good prices, I agree, however many of my stops were triggered today so Im hoping this was not a HUGE whipsaw or I will be pizzed!!!!!
> 
> No way Im dipping my fingers back into the commodity pot until at least the run into close Friday, when I expect inflationary fears (and actual figures) to help whip the commodity boom back into action!  Might see a further fall over the next couple days perhaps?  As the banks try to rally in vain.




Personally, I am holding positions but looking to buy more when it corrects more. Everything does not look good technically right now, for the short term time frame anyway. The best case we will get is an extended consolidation which slowly put everything back to below overbrought zones or a deeper correction for a quick drop back below those zones. Either way, the long term fundamentals are intact.

That extra $200 billion boost from the US would mean even more inflation.


----------



## barrett

Return of the wedge.. in green with strong support going back nearly a month - and weak resistance.. so far.  It looks like the newcomers have finally been tamed.. and some fairweather friends of gold among the institutions have jumped off a moving train.. and some central banks have done signficant selling.. but bullishly little ground was given up in the process..  Could we be looking at an upside breakout on or before the rate cut?


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> I completely agree Explod.
> 
> Must say however, I am kind of glad I did get triggered on my base metal stocks.  I think precious metals are a bit safer currently.  Base metals will get hit if the US recession (and I think we can say safely they ARE in recession, housing foreclosures are going to keep on running for at least the rest of this year, before subsiding but still remaining high next year I beleive, due to time lags it takes for this to actually come into effect), does have a decent impact on China (which I think it will).  Not so sure about this decoupling theory in such an integrated global market.
> 
> Inflation is the only thing I see as a given at the moment, while this does help most commodities, gold is not bound by economic growth limitations.
> 
> Just one opinion at least.




And a very good observation too.

However as has been repeated time and again it is the weakening currencies that are and will continue to be the driver.    The $US index overnight has hit another all time low and this will continue.    (for the analyst's, with of course some rallys along the way)

"Cash is trash" and gold will be supreme.

A good morning to you all.

Cheers explod


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Not sure if this info should go here but may explain a few things to those not familiar to what's going on and reinforce the views of the 'converted'


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> Return of the wedge.. in green with strong support going back nearly a month - and weak resistance.. so far.  It looks like the newcomers have finally been tamed.. and some fairweather friends of gold among the institutions have jumped off a moving train.. and some central banks have done signficant selling.. but bullishly little ground was given up in the process..  Could we be looking at an upside breakout on or before the rate cut?




Yes, a typical consolidation mode set up I think. On the longer time-scale things setting up nicely within the channel; distinct entry points at the Bollinger lows. Waiting for another low. 

And....good news for BDG sharesufferers, I mean shareholders


----------



## MRC & Co

Temjin said:


> Personally, I am holding positions but looking to buy more when it corrects more. Everything does not look good technically right now, for the short term time frame anyway. The best case we will get is an extended consolidation which slowly put everything back to below overbrought zones or a deeper correction for a quick drop back below those zones. Either way, the long term fundamentals are intact.
> 
> That extra $200 billion boost from the US would mean even more inflation.




I would be careful in waiting for a quick drop.  

You cannot fault the fundamentals.  Inflation figures released very soon, sure to be high.  Add to that the US rate cut which is expected and almost a definate.  Only question is now in my mind, will it breakout before or after the announcements.  Tonight could be a good night.


----------



## barrett

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, a typical consolidation mode set up I think. On the longer time-scale things setting up nicely within the channel; distinct entry points at the Bollinger lows. Waiting for another low.
> 
> And....good news for BDG sharesufferers, I mean shareholders




Nice work..  maybe that low will come in just before the rate cut.. that would give, potentially, another day or two of chopping, maybe within this symmetrical wedge..

If the wedge strengthened a bit and then broke to the upside on high volume, I would have thought 1000 taken.  But Fat Prophets seem to be sticking to their theory that after reaching 1000 there will be a substantial selloff/buying opportunity.. I was kinda thinking the selloff already occurred, from the low 990's..


----------



## explod

Selloffs, dips, you name it everyone is trying to call it.   

We are in new ground with gold,   an all time high and the largest economy that has ever existed is on its knees; period.

My call is the trend,  a trend is something that you can see happening, it may change at any moment and we need to be ready at all times to alter stance.

I believe that the trend up, in the absence of any other information will continue.

But we know that gold is intrinsiclly linked to currencies, wether the powers that be like it or not, and it is worth having a look at the US$ index, ............today the lowest point ever in history. .............  

That down trend confirms the gold uptrend and as I said "in the abscence of any other information.

I say to myself, "keep it simple stupid" and you wont go far wrong.


----------



## barrett

MRC & Co said:


> I would be careful in waiting for a quick drop.
> 
> You cannot fault the fundamentals.  Inflation figures released very soon, sure to be high.  Add to that the US rate cut which is expected and almost a definate.  Only question is now in my mind, will it breakout before or after the announcements.  Tonight could be a good night.




The two hawks on the board have been getting stroppy and arguing for lower cuts... a high CPI before a fed meeting would strengthen their argument, potentially bringing a quick buying opportunity before the cut?  Just playing the contrarian really but it does happen sometimes.

USDA monthly supply/demand report Tuesday morning showed US wheat & soybean domestic supply situation becoming even tighter, with those prices likely to remain high even if this year's harvests are exceptionally big.  Add to that 1/3 of US corn going to be diverted into ethanol and things look very bullish for the ag commodities - throw in $110 oil, and it's the perfect storm for gold.  If only the oil companies would stop trading at $50 oil valuations!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> I was kinda thinking the selloff already occurred, from the low 990's..




My thinking is that the recent high is the top for now, and possibly some continuation of the roughly 6-8 week _major_ cycle, which would take us to sometime around middle of April for the next major advance of $100 plus proportions. I hope it's sooner; you never know what left of centre event could throw the analysis out the window? You learn to be patient with gold 

Also a bit concerned that any correction with oil will have a negative impact.


----------



## CamKawa

barrett said:


> But Fat Prophets seem to be sticking to their theory that after reaching 1000 there will be a substantial selloff/buying opportunity..



If that’s what Fat Prophets thinks then the opposite will probably happen.



barrett said:


> I was kinda thinking the selloff already occurred, from the low 990's..



I think you may well be right.


----------



## rederob

Whatever anyone might think, based on charts or anything else, the "fundamentals" rule gold's near to medium term price.
In all probability gold will breach $1000 tonight (a blind Freddy call given it's a few dollars shy as I type).
Gold will power significantly further.
Propelling it will be a series of cascading Fed rate cuts, perhaps ending with the US copying Japan and running a zero interest rate market regime until the recession wears itself out.
The non-statistical recession the US is presently experiencing can easily last another year or more.  And although I have no idea when it will end, I am reasonable sure that until it does, gold will retain its momentum.
I had been reluctant to think gold would hit $1000 so soon.  However, what is evident now is that monies from elsewhere are being parked in gold for the time being - the safe haven it has always been.
A clue to gold's trajectory is its relatively sedate - yet powerful - climb north.  While there are occasional intraday movements of a few percent or so, these seem to ebb and flow in such a way that gold never leaps so far ahead that it doubles down on itself afterwards.  I know this to be the case because since January's market collapse, I haven't found a good re-entry point.
So, when I map out gold' forward path, I see Fed rate cuts adding at least another $200 to its price, and a speculative splurge nearer to the ending of US economic blues adding at least $200 more again.  Accordingly, I find it difficult to envisage gold retracing markedly until it breaches around $1500.
But that's what I'm seeing today.
I fully expect market gloom to persist another 3 months: In fact I expect it will sour a lot more.  Therefore I regard my present stance as a very early work in progress.  I won't hesitate tipping POG at $2000 before a blowoff top if, mid year, the ingredients are stronger then than they are today.


----------



## cuttlefish

yeah get yer glad rags on 'cos the party might be startin'.  (or not lol).


when every wealthy american realises that their 'cash is trash' (thanks explod), and every other government, institution, sovereign fund etc. that is holding US bonds and US currency realises that the $US is trashed backed by NINJA loans and other junk, then the upward pressure on the gold price might be rather surprising.

Apart from raw commodities (oil, ag products etc.) what other alternatives are there as a store of value in the face of a genuine and deep USD collapse.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Just when you think it couldn't get any worse - derivatives contagion! Although most informed people already knew this, just a matter of timing then?

Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb'
             Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...796-4D0D-AC9E-D9124B59D436}&dist=MostReadHome

Could we have just 1% of world GDP exit into gold please?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just when you think it couldn't get any worse - derivatives contagion! Although most informed people already knew this, just a matter of timing then?
> 
> Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb'
> Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...796-4D0D-AC9E-D9124B59D436}&dist=MostReadHome
> 
> Could we have just 1% of world GDP exit into gold please?




Yep, the $US index continues to weaken at an hour when it is usually ramped up.    

1% pwhew Uncle, my old heart could not take it, we will see what pans out, 996.4 as we speak


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Yep, the $US index continues to weaken at an hour when it is usually ramped up.
> 
> 1% pwhew Uncle, my old heart could not take it, we will see what pans out, 996.4 as we speak




Looks like Wall St will take a beating tonight on more news of big write downs, just hope the gold equities hang in there. POG giving it a real go at 1k, 997.7 top so far!


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looks like Wall St will take a beating tonight on more news of big write downs, just hope the gold equities hang in there. POG giving it a real go at 1k, 997.7 top so far!




Dont' worry about the gold gold equities, be pleased we are on board.  In 1980 many of them went up 100 times, from starting base, at the peak.   History never repeats exactly the same but do you think the financial mess is worse than 1980.   Sure do.


----------



## numbercruncher

After all who would want to own worthless pieces of paper created out of thin Air when you can have real Money, the yellow stuffs still cheap compared to the USD, just imagine when everyone wants some


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, this is looking too good to be true!!!

I laughed when 2000 was first spoken of, now I see it as a possibility and not an exteme outlier either.  

Think, high inflation, Fed 200bil package (inflation), rate cut (good for gold equities and hopefully a short-term bounce before equities take another pummeling!), which injects more $$ leading to higher inflation........and this all in the next week?  Can this be true?

Anyone starting to think this trend looks a hell of a lot like the recent gold chart?

This is about the surest bet I can think of for quiet some time.

Now it just has to catch fire and really set the POG alight!


----------



## explod

For those concerned about their mid tier producers and smaller explorers I notice the Hui Index at an all time high.   This had a considerable correction a few days ago and normally takes some consolidation to recover.   The US market is finally recognising gold stocks as value.   Like sheep our market will soon follow.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> For those concerned about their mid tier producers and smaller explorers I notice the Hui Index at an all time high.   This had a considerable correction a few days ago and normally takes some consolidation to recover.   The US market is finally recognising gold stocks as value.   Like sheep our market will soon follow.




Yes, should be a good day all round, NEM up nearly 5% in the US. Bought some BDG & TAM yesterday, looking like breakout stories, let's see .

I normally post snippets of articles but this one was full of 'I told you so' stories. Gordon Brown and Goldman Sachs - thank you very much!.



> Gold has broken through the psychological barrier of $1,000 an ounce for the first time, propelled by fears of inflation and a worldwide banking crisis.
> Hedge funds punched the metal higher in a final frenzy of buying as the dollar buckled on global markets, falling to record lows against the euro and Swiss franc.
> 
> The latest flight to gold follows the US Federal Reserve's dramatic measures this week to rescue the US mortgage industry, a move seen as evidence that Washington will inflate the money supply to stave off a recession.
> Peter Hambro, chairman of Peter Hambro Mining, said gold is regaining its historic role as the ultimate store of value as mainstream investors lose confidence in the entire range of paper currencies.
> 
> "When the Federal Reserve starts taking 'bus tickets' as collateral as they did this week, people are bound to see this as inflationary. But the problem is not just the dollar. We're living through a period of competitive devaluations across the world. Everybody is trying to stimulate their economy by driving down their own currencies," he said.
> 
> The euro has until now been the automatic default currency for funds seeking an alternative to the dollar, but Mr Hambro said the deep split emerging between the North and South of the euro-zone *has raised concerns about the long-term viability of monetary union*.
> 
> Gold closed at $995.40 on the London PM Fix after falling back. Adjusted for inflation, it is still far below the $850 peak reached in 1980 at the height of the second oil crisis and the Carter malaise. That spike would be near $2,500 in today's terms.
> 
> The metal's 30pc surge since late November has caught many bullion experts off guard.
> 
> *Goldman Sachs has been "short" since $810 an ounce, leaving it nursing hefty losses on a bet still billed as one of its 'top ten' trades for the year.*
> 
> Gold normally loses momentum after the India's Diwali festival in the late Autumn, and tends to fall hard in February and March. This year it has defied all normal patterns, responding instead to the Fed's emergency rates and the escalating turmoil in the credit system.
> 
> "People are worried that Ben Bernanke will flood the economy with cash and set off a massive inflation to avoid a banking crisis," said Ross Norman, director of the bullion.desk.com.
> 
> Mr Norman said a powerful new force had entered the gold market with the advent of commodity index funds (worth $200bn) and the exchange traded funds that allow ordinary people to invest easily in metals for the first time.
> "This is not a bubble. It isn't hot fast money. It is slow, glacial money from pension funds and institutions pushing up prices because they want a hard asset. Gold may fall back for a few weeks as people get used to this new big figure but any sell-off will be met by strong hard buying. We think it will reach $1,250 this year," he said.
> 
> *Gold has now quadrupled since Gordon Brown ordered the Bank of England to sell off half of Britain's gold reserves, deeming bullion to be a low-yielding 'relic'. The first fire-sale auction fetched $254 an ounce. The sales have now cost taxpayers over £4.5bn, even after adjusting for offsetting gains on bonds.*


----------



## scuffler

Gold Hits Record $1,000 an Ounce

By MAE ANDERSON and LAUREN SHEPHERD – 2 hours ago

NEW YORK (AP) ”” Bargain-hunting at the local jewelry store just got harder.

Gold, which has soared to record levels in the past year, hit a new milestone Thursday, rising to $1,000 an ounce for the first time in futures trading ”” a boon for investors, but a deterrent to consumers shopping for jewelry.

Michelle Findlay, a manager at a toll operator company in New York, said she has stopped buying pure gold pieces. Her latest buy was a silver bracelet plated in 18-karat gold.

"I noticed lately the price has been going up," she said, while browsing at Gold Panel jewelry store on 34th Street in New York. "I'll wait, definitely, for the prices to go down" before buying another gold item, she said.

The price of gold has jumped nearly 20 percent since the start of the year after rising nearly 32 percent in 2007. The huge advance is mainly the result of a weaker dollar and record-high crude oil prices. The dollar fell below 100 yen Thursday for the first time in 12 years and hit another new low against the euro, while oil traded above $110 a barrel Thursday.

Lower interest rates ”” and the prospect of more cuts ”” bringing the dollar's value down makes dollar-based commodities like gold cheaper for foreign buyers. The weak currency has also made gold more attractive because the metal is a hedge against inflation.

"Interest rates are low and that doesn't help our dollar," said Scott Meyers, senior trading analyst with Pioneer Futures, a division of MF Global.

After topping $1,001 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery fell back to settle at $993.80 an ounce on Thursday. Analysts say gold could still go higher, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again next week as expected.

When gold becomes more expensive on futures markets, it doesn't immediately translate into higher prices for jewelry. But in the long term, the price tags on gold rings, bracelets and necklaces do go up. Exactly when the increases from this latest jump will show up on price tags depends at least in part on a retailer's size.

Big retailers like Tiffany & Co. and those that sell jewelry to large department stores order products up to a year in advance and keep more in stock. Those stores likely didn't pay as much for the jewelry when they ordered it, so they wouldn't need to raise prices as quickly to offset costs.

Instead, since some of those larger stores are already buying merchandise for the 2008 Christmas holiday season, consumers may see higher prices toward the end of the year.

Tiffany spokesman Mark L. Aaron said that while there is not a direct correlation between the rising price of gold and the cost of its gold jewelry ”” the labor that goes into a piece is an important factor ”” Tiffany does adjust prices based on the cost of precious metals. If gold keeps rising, a price increase this year would be a "fair assumption," he said.

Independent jewelry stores, meanwhile, order products closer to when they appear on the shelves. Patrick J. Murphy, owner of Murphy Jewelry in Pottsville, Pa., said he doesn't raise the price of gold jewelry he has in stock but he must when he reorders pieces.

For example, an 18-inch gold chain in stock has a retail price of $189.95, but if he reordered the chain at the same length, weight and style, it would be priced at $346.

"That's been our challenge," he said.

When the makers of branded jewelry and accessories raise their prices, he has to pass the increase on to customers. He cited a recent price increase by Rolex as one example.

Patti Warshauer, owner of Main Street Goldworks in Half Moon Bay, Calif., said consumers are buying less, but it's not the price of gold that's getting to them ”” it is all the other financial pressures they're contending with.

"Discretionary income is much more affected by the price of other things, gas and things like that," she said. "They're still buying gold if they need it, if it's what they like."

Browsing jewelry stores in New York's diamond district, Kathleen Pierri, from Smithtown, N.Y., said the rising price of gold might make her buy less, but "if you really like it, you'll buy it," she said.

"Jewelry is a feel-good item, you're going to buy it if you need it," Pierri said.

Helen Antalg, a jewelry appraiser from Australia, said she was on watch for a good deal during a vacation in New York. "I'm looking to see if there's anything that catches my eye and at a good price," she said.

"I'm tending to go to the pawnbrokers as opposed to the retail side of things" in order to get better deals, she said, but added that she hasn't changed her jewelry-buying habits due to rising prices.

With prices rising, selling those not-so-beloved Valentine's Day presents or family heirlooms might sound like a good way to make a few extra bucks. Dave Adelman, who owns two pawn shops in Atlanta, said he's seen an increase in the number of people coming in to sell their gold. But he said he can't be sure whether that can be pegged to gold prices rising or other economic factors.

"When they come in, we don't know whether they're doing it based on the gold price or because of need," he said.

Whether consumers are buying gold or selling it, Murphy, a jeweler for 30 years, said he's amazed the price has jumped so high. He remembers when gold was just $35 an ounce.

"I didn't think we would ever be talking about $1,000 an ounce," he said. "It's crazy."


----------



## scuffler

Dollar Sinks, Gold Surges in Europe

3 hours ago

LONDON (AP) ”” The U.S. dollar sank against other major currencies in European trading Thursday, dipping below 100 yen for the first time in 12 years and the euro soared above $1.56, while Swiss franc slipped to a record low just above parity. Gold rose, touching $1000 per ounce in New York.

By late morning in Europe, the euro traded at $1.5580, up from $1.5526 late Wednesday in New York. The euro traded as high as $1.5625 earlier in the day. Later, in midday trading in New York, the euro fetched $1.5596.

The dollar fell as low as 99.75 Japanese yen before recovering slightly to 100.52 yen, down from 102.04 on Wednesday.

Other dollar rates in Europe, compared with late Wednesday, included 1.0111 Swiss francs, down from 1.0182. Earlier, the dollar fell to a record low of 1.0043 francs.

The dollar also slipped to 0.9828 Canadian dollars from 1.0096.

The British pound was quoted at $2.0304, up from $2.0243.

Later, in New York midday trading, the dollar bought 100.61 yen and 1.0109 Swiss francs, while the pound was worth $2.0318.

Gold traded in London at $993.60 per troy ounce, up from $979.50 late Wednesday. In Zurich, gold traded at $990.90 bid per troy ounce, up from $976.35.

Silver opened in London at $20.52, up from $20.00.


----------



## scuffler

Morning all.

Well $1000 is nearly done and dusted. Should head to $1025 ish before another consolidation period.....then the next leg up!!!:dance:

   The gold juniors should start to warm up soon.
When the block heads in charge of various funds work out where gold is going ALL gold stocks imo will go mental.

   :guitar:

Just my opinion tho....I am surprised its not started already for the juniors.:bonk:


----------



## Sean K

Gold has been the lead item on international CNN the past few hours. 

Overtaking the stupid US election circus.

Does that mean it's a time to buy, or sell?


----------



## Temjin

kennas said:


> Gold has been the lead item on international CNN the past few hours.
> 
> Overtaking the stupid US election circus.
> 
> Does that mean it's a time to buy, or sell?




Gold just need that sort of exposure from the media to start the manic phase. 

Public sentiment is indeed increasing, but still no where near the stage where taxi drivers are advising you to buy gold. 

must...buy....more...


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> The US market is finally recognising gold stocks as value.   Like sheep our market will soon follow.




But POG in AUD is what will restrict us in comparison.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

MRC & Co said:


> But POG in AUD is what will restrict us in comparison.




Yes, but when the time is right it will be a great pairs trade - long gold, short AUD .


----------



## MRC & Co

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, but when the time is right it will be a great pairs trade - long gold, short AUD .




Absolutely!  

And as I stated a while back, I dont see too much more room for IR hikes.  Time lags, recent rises, slowing growth, cost-push inflation. Funny its just now that "economists" in the news are starting to question further rate rises.  

RBA would have to be MENTAL to rise rates much more.  As I also said, I will have a talk to a mate who works for the company which gives them advice on underlying trends and see his sentiments on where things are heading, in relation to IRs.  

Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is the name of the game at the moment!


----------



## Temjin

MRC & Co said:


> But POG in AUD is what will restrict us in comparison.




Not to me.  Borrow USD with AUD, buy GOLD with USD. Keep AUD cash. Don't give a beep about the exchange rate.

Ok...except the open profits in USD, which are indeed deteriorating as US dollars continue to fall.


----------



## CamKawa

MRC & Co said:


> Absolutely! And as I stated a while back, I dont see too much more room for IR hikes.



I saw this bloke on Lateline Business last night who disagrees with you. The RBA might put rates on hold but the banks may just keep hiking.

*Report shows customers stressed*
Video - Windows Media broadband
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200803/r232529_930441.asx

Transcript
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200803/s2189073.htm


----------



## MRC & Co

CamKawa said:


> I saw this bloke on Lateline Business last night who disagrees with you. The RBA might put rates on hold but the banks may just keep hiking.
> 
> *Report shows customers stressed*
> Video - Windows Media broadband
> http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200803/r232529_930441.asx
> 
> Transcript
> http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200803/s2189073.htm




Of course there will always be differences of opinion.

Just ask GS who has been shorting the POG.  

Only time will tell.


----------



## refined silver

MRC & Co said:


> Absolutely!
> 
> And as I stated a while back, I dont see too much more room for IR hikes.




Agree. But the RBA and Fed only deal with the short end of the interest rate curve. The market sets it long term. With credit derivatives exploding everywhere, long term rates are heading up - in the US also. As the central banks cut rates at the short end to try to free up supposedly illiquid banks, the market is not buying long dated bonds, hence driving their price down and interest rate up. 

Recent municipal bond auctions in the states went at 18-20%!!!!!!!!! It hasn't yet worked all the way thru to US treasuries yet, but its just starting.

In other words, CBs will stop raising short term interest rate, but the market will raising long term rates which is what affects most of us.

The flight from paper, will continue to push up gold.


----------



## refined silver

refined silver said:


> As the central banks cut rates at the short end to try to free up supposedly illiquid banks,




The problem is not ILLIQUID banks, but INSOLVENT banks. 

The Fed solution is said to be aimed at liquidity, but really is just monetizing bankrupcy. The resulting tsunami of inflation will catapult gold way higher.


----------



## CamKawa

MRC & Co said:


> Just ask GS who has been shorting the POG.



Yes since the POG was 850. I had a laugh.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Absolutely!
> 
> And as I stated a while back, I dont see too much more room for IR hikes.  Time lags, recent rises, slowing growth, cost-push inflation. Funny its just now that "economists" in the news are starting to question further rate rises.
> 
> RBA would have to be MENTAL to rise rates much more.  As I also said, I will have a talk to a mate who works for the company which gives them advice on underlying trends and see his sentiments on where things are heading, in relation to IRs.
> 
> Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is the name of the game at the moment!




I think you may get a surprise.   The supply of money with value is becoming the problem.  (even GWB'S HEDGE fund is in trouble and he's with God) To give money back its value interest rates will, and have to rise in the longer term..    

Its a long time ago but the times of 20% interest rates will be back sooner than people realise.   Why, to repeat, there is no value in money.   We dont' bend our back and work any more, even as share traders we are playing monopoly.   No asset in games, only in actual work.  

"CASH IS TRASH"


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> I think you may get a surprise.   The supply of money with value is becoming the problem.  (even GWB'S HEDGE fund is in trouble and he's with God) To give money back its value interest rates will, and have to rise in the longer term..
> 
> Its a long time ago but the times of 20% interest rates will be back sooner than people realise.   Why, to repeat, there is no value in money.   We dont' bend our back and work any more, even as share traders we are playing monopoly.   No asset in games, only in actual work.
> 
> "CASH IS TRASH"




Then it all depends on which type of cash is trash, ie if you have some folding stuff that's actually been printed in your palm = not so bad. But, if you have IOU nothings in a bank account and all of a sudden everybody wants real money then = good luck.

Bank rates look like continuing to outpace Reserve rates into 2009 going by what Brian Johnson said. But 20% in this climate is instant demand destruction for many businesses ie business stress will show up at lower rates than this, possibly an exponential type slide into recession. There are signs of credit rationing going on in Oz.

If you keep an eye on the AUD for these signs we will have our 'dream' pairs trade short AUD, long gold. 

PS gold having another go at $1k & AUD coming off a bit right now


----------



## barrett

Congratulations everyone  :band:bier::xmastree:jump:


----------



## chops_a_must

WOOOOOOOO!

We're printing money!

Look at that gold go!!!!

Soon I'll be going shopping with Perth Mint coins... and melting down shopping trolleys in my spare time.


----------



## barrett

chops_a_must said:


> WOOOOOOOO!
> 
> We're printing money!
> 
> Look at that gold go!!!!
> 
> Soon I'll be going shopping with Perth Mint coins... and melting down shopping trolleys in my spare time.




rofl yeah and rounding up piles of banknotes..  better rethink those $A/$US parity arguments, greenbacks burn hotter..


----------



## barrett

interesting major resistance point just overhead on the daily... the bizarrely low volume so far on this $1K breakout makes me think we won't have the strength to smash through the resistance tonight, but it would be very bullish.. 1003.58 the critical level for tonight's close, on this chart..


----------



## explod

In current trade the Aussie dollar is down 1%.   The old Aussie has had a strong run of late against the $US but the interesting aspect is that the move against other currencies has reversed and this has been lifting our local gold price; now $1064

And the big one, caused a great deal of reaction yesterday in the press so will probably be kept below 1000      I think behind the scenes the PPP and general US establishment will accumulated and go long, this will give it a strong break up but when all eyes are apon there will be an enormous correction,  for the benefit of the new audience.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.

The birthday cake tastes nice though, thanks to the Barret Clan for that.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> , this will give it a strong break up but when all eyes are apon there will be an enormous correction, for the benefit of the new audience.
> 
> 
> 
> The birthday cake tastes nice though, thanks to the Barret Clan for that.




 so... long or short from here???...  @$US1000 as posting... (keeping in mind I trade 1 and 5 min trends as well as my longer portfolio...    )
  Cheers
............KKKKKKKaa


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> so... long or short from here???...  @$US1000 as posting... (keeping in mind I trade 1 and 5 min trends as well as my longer portfolio...    )
> Cheers
> ............KKKKKKKaa




Down Kauri into the close, but vibrating bad I think.   Have been wrong but PPP need some thinking time to sift sentiment befoe the next large move.


----------



## explod

This one from James is a good surmation:



> The Other Reason to Own Gold
> 
> Everybody knows that gold is an inflation hedge. That’s why most people buy it. They know from experience that the purchasing power of all national currencies is being constantly eroded by inflation. But they also know that their purchasing power is preserved by owning gold.
> 
> For example, the price of crude oil has been rising for decades when viewed in terms of dollars or any national currency. But when the cost of a barrel of crude oil is viewed in terms of ounces or grams of gold, its price is essentially unchanged. In other words, the dollar price of crude oil and the dollar price of gold are both rising more or less lockstep.By owning gold instead of US dollars, you can today purchase basically the same amount of crude oil as at any other time since 1945.
> 
> In other words, gold is an inflation hedge. But that is only one of gold’s advantages. There is also another valuable reason to own gold, and significantly, this other reason is becoming increasingly important.
> 
> Gold is also a catastrophe hedge. Gold enables us to protect our wealth from a financial meltdown because it does not have counterparty risk.
> 
> I wrote about counterparty risk last August in an article entitled “As Financial Tremors Reverberate, Focus on Counterparty Risk”. I recommend re-reading that article for a refresher course on the nature of counterparty risk and how it arises.  It is I think important to recognize that the financial tremors are indeed reverberating, and are doing so with growing ferocity. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_aug102007.html
> 
> The monetary and financial system is rapidly spinning out of control. We are witnessing the unwinding of decades of reckless credit expansion. Borrowers – corporations, hedge funds, homeowners, etc. – who no longer have the financial capacity to repay their debts are defaulting on their obligations in increasing numbers. In that environment, the safety of one’s wealth becomes paramount, to protect against the catastrophe of default in all types of financial assets.
> 
> In short, promises are being broken, so in an environment in which financial assets are becoming increasingly doubted, one needs to own tangible assets. Own things instead of promises, and there is only one money that is not dependent upon someone’s promise and that’s gold. So buy gold; it is the best catastrophe hedge. But also buy gold because it remains the best inflation hedge.
> 
> For example, gold was $670 on August 10, 2007 when my article on counterparty risk was published, and crude oil was $71.50 per barrel. When viewed in terms of gold, crude oil was 3.3 goldgrams per barrel.
> 
> Gold today is $992, and crude oil is $109. So both prices have risen considerably in dollar terms, but the price of crude oil today is 3.4 goldgrams per barrel, essentially unchanged from last August. Gold performed as expected, being a nearly perfect hedge against inflation.
> 
> So when considering all of its advantages, gold provides what everyone wants – peace of mind knowing that the portion of your wealth placed in gold is safe.
> 
> by James Turk
> 
> *****
> 
> James Turk is the Founder & Chairman of GoldMoney.com http://goldmoney.com/. He is the co-author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar , which has been updated for a newly released paperback version, now entitled The Collapse of the Dollar www.dollarcollapse.com.


----------



## MRC & Co

Soared to $1007!!!  Too bad about the close!  Hope it at least closes over $1000.

Surprised about the inflation release.

Have a good weekend all!


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> This one from James is a good surmation:
> 
> yadda yadda
> 
> by James Turk




Everyone need to be aware of that in the event of a financial meltdown, you NEED to own ALLOCATED or PHYSICAL gold in order to provide you with a REAL hedge against it. 

That's why I am still not comfortable with owning ETCs in GLD, SLV because in theory, they can also default at any time and no one can do a thing about it. It's all unallocated gold/silver and no one has really audited their physical warehouse yet. 


Yes, HAPPY ...BIRTHDAY GOLD TO $1000/oz!! WOOT!


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Everyone need to be aware of that in the event of a financial meltdown, you NEED to own ALLOCATED or PHYSICAL gold in order to provide you with a REAL hedge against it.
> 
> That's why I am still not comfortable with owning ETCs in GLD, SLV because in theory, they can also default at any time and no one can do a thing about it. It's all unallocated gold/silver and no one has really audited their physical warehouse yet.
> 
> 
> Yes, HAPPY ...BIRTHDAY GOLD TO $1000/oz!! WOOT!




Absolutely, could not agree more.  Picked that up from my early mentors on the gold outlook.   Only physical for me, except for my trading portfolio in Assie gold stocks.   The time of trust has gone and it will be everyone for himself. 

In fact there is continuing conjecture about the gold in (or is it) Fort Knox.  Where did that whacker Gordon Brown get the idea to sell of the British Bullion for a song.


----------



## imagineer

Ethiopia Officials Still Investigating Fake Gold In National Bank's Vaults

The mystery of gold gilded steel bars and Ethiopia's national bank is still unraveling. Bank officials were ordered by parliament's budget and finance committee to inspect all the gold in the national bank's vaults after two separate deposits of gold bars were found to be fake. The initial problem was uncovered when the bank sent a consignment of 300 kilograms, 10,582.1886 ounces of presumably 999.9 percent pure gold to South Africa. That nation tested them and found them to be gold gilded steel counterfeits. The price of gold reached a record high of $1,000 per ounce on Thursday.

And if I remeber right England found their gold was breaking up a few months ago.
Still cheap as chips at $1500
Keep the faith
Neil


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Absolutely, could not agree more.  Picked that up from my early mentors on the gold outlook.   Only physical for me, except for my trading portfolio in Assie gold stocks.   The time of trust has gone and it will be everyone for himself.
> 
> In fact there is continuing conjecture about the gold in (or is it) Fort Knox.  Where did that whacker Gordon Brown get the idea to sell of the British Bullion for a song.




Yep, the GATA has been trying to get an independent audit on the gold reserve. Unfortunately, I doubt they will ever get to it as the US government is too corrupted. I personally doubt there is as much physical gold as they claim there is in the fort right now. 

I'm looking to add more physical gold and silver, especially silver too.


----------



## tigerboi

Here is the twiggs chart from a few days ago,ive been following his stuff & he likes it for alot more & why wouldnt you with the yank dollar looking like dunny paper  as every day passes,the printing presses must be running hot..


----------



## explod

A bit off topic but I think u can realte.

Found a second hand book for $2 this morning at the Frankston market. "The Money Masters" by John Train, 1980   Fantastic find for me.

One trader Stanley Kroll was buying and selling silver on the Chicago.  He was very successful.  But the thing that struck me with he and others of his time that, when they believed in something they put absolutely everything into it.  We talk diversification, diversification.   Maybe concentrate on one thing at a time and go for everything.

Gold to me is "it" at the moment but I may narrow down to the best among that too.   Another in the book T. Rowe Price says buy the strong emerging growth stocks.  Back in 1970"s he managed a portfolio of 22 billion.  Get your head around that for those times.   I will keep you updated as I work my way through this.  Perhaps a thread on it.  A younger Buffet has a section also.


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> A bit off topic but I think u can realte.
> 
> Found a second hand book for $2 this morning at the Frankston market. "The Money Masters" by John Train, 1980   Fantastic find for me.
> 
> One trader Stanley Kroll was buying and selling silver on the Chicago.  He was very successful.  But the thing that struck me with he and others of his time that, when they believed in something they put absolutely everything into it.  We talk diversification, diversification.   Maybe concentrate on one thing at a time and go for everything.
> 
> Gold to me is "it" at the moment but I may narrow down to the best among that too.   Another in the book T. Rowe Price says buy the strong emerging growth stocks.  Back in 1970"s he managed a portfolio of 22 billion.  Get your head around that for those times.   I will keep you updated as I work my way through this.  Perhaps a thread on it.  A younger Buffet has a section also.




Another off topic too, but it's obviously related to one of Buffet's quote, 

"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."


----------



## Lucky_Country

Great quote Ive been battling the diversification demons my self too much resources in my portfolio according too the quote I should diversify!


----------



## explod

Not saying it will be but the start to the week is the best I have ever seen

As the Great Sir Les Patterson says, "Nooooooooo  Worries"


----------



## Uncle Festivus

1018 & *explod*ing!

.....and a nice short on the AUD this morn!


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Not saying it will be but the start to the week is the best I have ever seen
> 
> As the Great Sir Les Patterson says, "Nooooooooo Worries"



Talk about take off like a rocket. Farrrk...


----------



## explod

Gold has seperated from the market, Nikkie down 300+ .   What we want to see now is a seperation of the gold stocks.  Lgl up 3% + a good start against the financials down.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Gold has seperated from the market, Nikkie down 300+ .   What we want to see now is a seperation of the gold stocks.  Lgl up 3% + a good start against the financials down.



Yep, one of the few times the stocks have gone the other way really. Encouraging for long term gold stock holders...


----------



## CamKawa

ASX code GOLD is doing alright this morning.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Where are we? - inflation adjusted gold price chart

http://i.mktw.net/newsimages/news/infographics/gold2_660.gif



> With gold breaking the barrier of $1,000 an ounce this week and surging over 40% over the last year, a growing number of investors that joined the fray are finally acknowledging that gold bugs' plans for apocalypse weren't so kooky after all.




http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={C08BA53A-3D8B-4350-AA7A-B0A12CB039E7}

New records!


----------



## explod

Yeehaaa, ..............          see, .......................                no problem in America. 

weez all saved


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bit of a nasty reversal in the Yellow brick road. Market Wizards running for the door??


----------



## cuttlefish

lol - pretty decent effort, will be intersting to see the cover.


----------



## MRC & Co

Damn, its really taking a battering!

$1000 is the big test!  Need it to stay above!


----------



## Kauri

Commodities are collapsing and not only on fears of a US and even global recession, but traders are cashing out of the last profits they have, which fuelled unwinding of carry trades overnight and is now forcing commodities lower. Commodity plays are leveraged as well and the exodus and profit-taking could see sustained losses in commodities for sessions to come.
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

Kauri said:


> Commodities are collapsing and not only on fears of a US and even global recession, but traders are cashing out of the last profits they have, which fuelled unwinding of carry trades overnight and is now forcing commodities lower. Commodity plays are leveraged as well and the exodus and profit-taking could see sustained losses in commodities for sessions to come.
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Yes, but gold is not bound by economic growth limitations.

Fair enough base metals will take a hit, but gold?  All these sell-offs, fed actions and pessimism should only send gold in one direction!  

I dont know, I see the smart money coming in soon and changing things around with all the bears out there!  I think we are due for a nice little rally in the coming days/weeks.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Fair enough base metals will take a hit, but gold?  All these sell-offs, fed actions and pessimism should only send gold in one direction!
> I dont know, I see the smart money coming in soon and changing things around with all the bears out there!  I think we are due for a nice little rally in the coming days/weeks.




MRC & Co your statement sounds very much like those that where talking about the Future Fund and new highs for ASX back in Dec 07.

When the :fan the only thing that is save is the SELL button.

I'm not calling a top but rarely will something act locally when it gets nutty.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> MRC & Co your statement sounds very much like those that where talking about the Future Fund and new highs for ASX back in Dec 07.
> 
> When the :fan the only thing that is save is the SELL button.
> 
> I'm not calling a top but rarely will something act locally when it gets nutty.




Wouldnt my statements sound more like someone calling for a blow-off top back in December 07?  Considering at the time, I beleive there were many bulls around telling everyone to get in, dont want to miss the run!  Or were the bears overtaking by then?  What were the shorting statistics or the put/call ratio?  

Is the sell button safer than gold bullion?

With a fed rate cut coming up, we could get a quick bounce, that is all I am saying.  So just watch out for it, dont want to miss any opportunities.  

Crash cycle anyone?

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Depends if you view gold as a commodity or a currency. I would think there will be a de-coupling for gold soon where neither the Euro, Yen or whatever will be a viable currency alternative to the USD. So what do we have left then? Blue sky gold? Just need the penny to drop first .


----------



## Kauri

I hope that doesn't turn out to be Maxwells silver hammer up there..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Reuters, (SOME OF IT)*
 Forecasts for further stock declines have emerged with Goldman Sachs *looking for another 10% decline in the S&P*. Some traders feel that the worst may be over, but for some, they see this as wishful thinking. Traders are sidelined ahead of the Fed decision tomorrow with futures now *pricing in a 100 bp rate cut tomorrow*. 
      Looking further ahead, dealers now see a 50/50 chance for intervention to support the USD though *some see intervention to sell gold as the best choice which would burst the commodity bubble, thus deflating some inflation concerns as well, and also support the USD*. As far as intervention, a move on Good Friday when many markets are closed but US banks are open, would have the best one-two punch for the market.


----------



## MRC & Co

Kauri said:


> *Reuters, (SOME OF IT)*
> Forecasts for further stock declines have emerged with Goldman Sachs *looking for another 10% decline in the S&P*



*

lol, wasnt it also GS who have been shorting gold since like $800 *


----------



## Kauri

MRC & Co said:


> lol, wasnt it also GS who have been shorting gold since like $800




I have no idea..  if they were it was probably because they were decoupling..   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

I wonder if we'll ever see a $100 a day jump?

Or fall....

Is there a current limit on how much the central banks can sell? Not sure of what the policy is at the moment?



> *Gold tipped to break $US1100 mark*
> March 17, 2008 02:44pm
> 
> THE spot price of gold is expected to surge as high as $US1100 ($1172) per fine ounce in the near term, as investors continue to pursue the metal to insulate themselves from the fallout from a softening US economy and volatile financial markets across the world.
> 
> The price of the yellow metal rose to a new record high of $US1030.80 in Asian trading today, as investors digested news that one of the US's biggest investment banks Bear Stearns was being bought out by JPMorgan after falling victim to an ongoing crisis in credit markets.
> 
> The takeover has sparked fears that more banks may be in trouble, ahead of a meeting of a US central bank this week which is likely to result in a cut to official interest rates in a bid to boost a flagging US economy.
> 
> On the local exchange, shares in gold producers jumped with Newcrest up 3 per cent to $38.84 at 13.59pm (AEDT), Newmont up 1.42 per cent or eight cents to $5.72 and Lihir Gold up 4.07 per cent or 16 cents to to $4.35.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri said:


> I have no idea.. if they were it was probably because they were decoupling..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




The Fed _is_ GS


----------



## CamKawa

All this makes for nail biting investing.

On another note IB and have issued a statement http://www.interactivebrokers.com/download/IB08-102.pdf
I wonder if they are about to go bust?


----------



## GreatPig

A chart of the ASX GOLD stock.

It has now reached both the top of the current channel and my Fib target of A$110.

GP


----------



## Bush Trader

Some thoughts on the releationship between gold and oil quantified that may be of interest to some of you from Ian Wyatt,Chief Equity Strategist,Top Stock Insights

Cheers


BT

*Gold and Oil Move in Tandem*

As you may have figured out already, the price of gold bullion and crude oil are highly correlated.  Over the past 60 years, one ounce of gold has on average purchased 15.2 barrels of oil.  With gold trading at around $1,000 per ounce and crude oil trading at $106, this ratio today stands at 9.4:1 as of this writing.   

Even if you're not an oil person, you know that oil is on the rise.  Now, the price of oil continues to break all-time highs.  While some have stated that oil may not continue to trade over $100 indefinitely, its unlikely to retreat much below $80 anytime soon, especially when looking at the huge demand coming out of the booming Asian economies including China and India combined with supply issues.

The price of gold has not been sitting out the commodity rally through.  It's up 32% so far in 2008.  In spite of gold's recent gains, the ratio remains out of whack. 

The idea here is that with oil unlikely to decline below $80 anytime soon, the price of gold is likely to rally in the coming years - and in a big way.  Historical data shows that when the ratio falls below 11 (meaning one ounce of gold will buy you 11 barrels of oil), the ratio not only will come back in line with the average, but that speculation drives the ratio above the historical average of 15.2, as has been evidenced every time that the ratio fell below 11.

One could argue that we now live in different times with the global commodity markets, and ratios such as gold-to-oil are no longer meaningful. 
I disagree and am willing to bet that commodity prices are in fact highly correlated, and that historical relationships between prices are likely to remain intact for the foreseeable future.


----------



## Gurgler

GreatPig said:


> A chart of the ASX GOLD stock.
> 
> It has now reached both the top of the current channel and my Fib target of A$110.
> 
> GP




So, GP, what implications can we draw from the piercing the top of the channel - a potential retrace?


----------



## Nyden

How can anyone claim that holding _physical_ gold protects you against world wide economic meltdown?

Surely in such a case - the masses would be looking for food, & energy; & not a useless shiny metal?
In such an instance; there would be the possibility for war, gold confiscation / mandatory selling ... so many unknowns, one would be dreaming to assume they'd be safe in such a case.

Actual demand; as in jewelry, & probably even the use in electronics, has slumped dramatically ... & the POG is based entirely on speculation (which is apparently labelled as *not* hot money ... yet we see 4% rallies in single days)

I don't believe the masses would ever go for gold on a whole; as it simply serves very little purpose? Gold has a very limited use, & can essentially be substituted in most cases.


I guess my point here, is rather that of a question - *why* does the price of gold need to increase? Why, psychologically ; do we see gold as something precious? What makes a shiny metal ... more valuable than a piece of "worthless" paper? Both have the same purpose; to exchange for goods, services, food, & land. Currency, & the accumulation of currency has zero purpose if not to be used this way.


& Another thing; does not gold face the same risks any other currency does? A government can inject more money into the system; therefore diluting the value. A gold mining company can discover a new mass amount of gold; therefore injecting more gold into the system ... (of course, what with population growth ...)


----------



## saichuen

Nyden said:


> How can anyone claim that holding _physical_ gold protects you against world wide economic meltdown?
> 
> Surely in such a case - the masses would be looking for food, & energy; & not a useless shiny metal?
> In such an instance; there would be the possibility for war, gold confiscation / mandatory selling ... so many unknowns, one would be dreaming to assume they'd be safe in such a case.
> 
> Actual demand; as in jewelry, & probably even the use in electronics, has slumped dramatically ... & the POG is based entirely on speculation (which is apparently labelled as *not* hot money ... yet we see 4% rallies in single days)
> 
> I don't believe the masses would ever go for gold on a whole; as it simply serves very little purpose? Gold has a very limited use, & can essentially be substituted in most cases.
> 
> 
> I guess my point here, is rather that of a question - *why* does the price of gold need to increase? Why, psychologically ; do we see gold as something precious? What makes a shiny metal ... more valuable than a piece of "worthless" paper? Both have the same purpose; to exchange for goods, services, food, & land. Currency, & the accumulation of currency has zero purpose if not to be used this way.
> 
> 
> & Another thing; does not gold face the same risks any other currency does? A government can inject more money into the system; therefore diluting the value. A gold mining company can discover a new mass amount of gold; therefore injecting more gold into the system ... (of course, what with population growth ...)




This is just my view. Gold is a very inert metal and relatively rare. Hence it is a good store of value. How much food can you eat in a day? How much energy can you use in a day? You probably won't be able to consume all that you can buy or own with your cash in a short period of time. This is perhaps where the gold as a store of value comes into play?

My 2cents worth.


----------



## MRC & Co

Kauri said:


> I have no idea..  if they were it was probably because they were decoupling..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Shorting I beleive based on historical trends (seasonality).

Here is one interesting peice of seasonality fact for you guys:

If, from 1928-1994, you invested $10,000 for the first 4 days of each month and the last day of each month, plus the two days preceding each public holiday and were ONLY invested in those days - which is 28% of all trading days, your money would now be worth $4.6 million.

Now if you were NOT invested in ANY of these days and in every other trading day throughout that period, so the other 72% of trading days, your $10,000 would now be worth a mere $569.

Based on the S&P500 index.

Mind-boggling?

Pulic holiday approaching 

As for GOLD, WTF!!!!!

Come on Fed, give it to us good!


----------



## explod

Nyden, gold as a store of wealth goes back 4000 years.  It has never failed to hold it's value.  Ancient Rome tried to control as the US has today and they have both failed.

In Germany in 1924 money lost its value, period, gold did not.  Many of the Jewish community had gold and became very well protected against the currency ravages.  Hitler was most upset at this and I believe it had a lot to do with the sinister direction he went to.

I have been sitting on Bllion for over 4 years in my Super fund and thankfully it just grows and grows as other Super funds just keep contracting because the basis of many of them is the financial sector.

There are too many things to properly cover in a short message but do youself a big financial favor and read through this gold thread which contains the lot.  Better than any book.  A short history of gold that is good is on the website of "The Privateer", you will find it via Google.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ditto Explod re Nyden why gold - the reasons are all out there already.

Some idle rambling and conjecture, in lieu of more X factors from Bernanke and Friends (could be a new TV reality show, 'watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat' ).

As per previous post of mine about entering a consolidation phase, it looks like  we got a false breakout after the 'surprise' interest rate decision. Normally I would think the pattern would follow previous patterns in that the price would oscillate around a price 'mean' while in consolidation mode (almost always around the big numbers eg 800 & 900; 994 an oscillation point too?  ), but things are too volatile to 'assume' anything these days. 

Without any more X factors, still looking to maybe touch 980-985 area for mid trendline around 20th March or so, as recent push & retrace has  a breather.  The trick is to align macd direction & level to boll extremes for low risk entry points. Maybe wave  type people can  enlighten more? Anyone??


----------



## Nyden

I do of course appreciate the reasoning behind it, & am looking into furthering my gold exposure (why fight a trend) ... but, I guess I'm just getting a little philosophical here 

Humans really are strange creatures, we place such value in natural diamonds, based purely on rarity / the fact that others can't have them (selfish, spite, & greed!) ... yet, man-made diamonds are basically frowned upon / worthless, even though they can be near-identical to the naked eye?



Looking for an entry point! Little too hot right now ... got a feeling it's going to come down quite a few %

I truly believe we should return to a more basic barter system, I guess it goes against capitalism a little though.


----------



## Jordanlee

*Why gold had to hit US$1000 (Robin Bromby)*

I read the article is wrote by Robin Bromby yesterday. It may help you who holds Gold Mining Shares. For your info., 
full article LINK: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23375886-643,00.html

Why gold had to hit $US1000
Robin Bromby | March 15, 2008 
IT was no big surprise when it happened. It's doubtful that anyone, anywhere, popped a cork when, briefly in New York on Thursday night, gold went through the $US1000 an ounce mark.

We were expecting it. The only issue was when it would happen -- this week or next. 

Now that the $US1000/oz level is done and dusted, gold bulls will already be recalibrating their expectations. Any day now there will be talk of $US1200 gold. Then $US1500. And, again, when (not if, they'll argue) those levels are reached, it will have been anticipated and talked about so much that, like this week, it will all seem faintly anticlimactic. 

There'll be more joy among the miners, especially if they are not hedged. 

Greater Bendigo Gold Mines is as tinny as they come. 

First, it is coming to production this month. Second, it decided not to hedge that production so it -- and its shareholders -- will be getting full exposure to the spot price for the planned 20,000oz output a year. 

And while the credit well is fast freezing over for sectors such as property, the stellar run by gold made it possible for Greater Bendigo to pull off a trifecta this week. ANZ loaned it $2.1 million, investors opened their wallets for a $1.07 million placement and British managed fund Pacific Capital Investment Management put up $10 million for convertible notes. 

Not bad for a company whose shares have been struggling to stay above 20c and which has a market capitalisation of $19.5 million. 

"I love gold," chairman Ian Smith said yesterday. And he believes he will keep on doing so. "We are not about to see an outbreak of world peace and financial stability". 

Barrick Gold chief executive Greg Wilkins said in a New York television interview that he expected gold to climb a good deal further. And he ventured that the metal might find a lucrative industrial use -- replacing platinum (now more than $US2000 an ounce) in the manufacture of catalytic converters that reduce car exhaust emissions. 

Why would you expect gold to stay at these levels or go much higher? Let us count the ways.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nyden said:


> I truly believe we should return to a more basic barter system, I guess it goes against capitalism a little though.





That bit sums it up - what people are willing to barter _with_. You can barter for more with a gold coin in your hand than dragging a barrel of oil around. If you want oil you pay with gold. You want food, you pay with gold. Not some bit of paper that a group of people have _agreed_ a value to, and who then dictate the rules for how to use it eg taxes. Electronic fiat currency is not rare - it's just nobody can _agree_ what it's worth any more...


----------



## MRC & Co

Nyden, careful about looking for further weakness.  You may have just got your chance right now with this current slide.  A feeling never took over fundamentals.  Sounds like famous last words to me.

No point questioning why we "value" certain things, supply/demand control the market and that is that.  Im sure if we went into a deep deep depression and food became that hard to come by, there would be complete chaos and only those with arms would do well if you get my drift!  But that is FAR from the cards!  

If we return to a more basic barter system, transactions costs will go through the roof, but that is another story.  

I did and continue to expect a very strong week for gold equities!  Could be wrong, this is based on fundamentals, seasonality and sentiment.  For now, I throw my technical analysis hat out the window!


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> I do of course appreciate the reasoning behind it, & am looking into furthering my gold exposure (why fight a trend) ... but, I guess I'm just getting a little philosophical here
> 
> Humans really are strange creatures, we place such value in natural diamonds, based purely on rarity / the fact that others can't have them (selfish, spite, & greed!) ... yet, man-made diamonds are basically frowned upon / worthless, even though they can be near-identical to the naked eye?
> 
> 
> 
> Looking for an entry point! Little too hot right now ... got a feeling it's going to come down quite a few %
> 
> I truly believe we should return to a more basic barter system, I guess it goes against capitalism a little though.




Gold came in to being as a currency in (the barter system) exchange off good.  Cows for Spuds etc, when an imballance occurred in the production of goods against the provision of services gold coins started.  The early ones had holes in them so that they could be carried on a string around the neck.  I wonder if that is how necklaces started ?

People need food, then shelter, next is clothing and looking good.  Gold made people feel good, and when they made ornaments from it they thought they looked good.   The basic feelings for these things have not changed.

Gold is rarer by the day, the good mines are almost depleted or now very deep.   So yep gold may correct a bit and consolidate at this level but the trend will contiue for many years now as the financial chaos plays out.

And I see Sunday markets (called farmers markets here) springing up in opposition to supermarket more of late as things get much worse, necessity will drvie such directions.


----------



## Nyden

MRC & Co said:


> Nyden, careful about looking for further weakness.  You may have just got your chance right now with this current slide.  A feeling never took over fundamentals.  Sounds like famous last words to me.





Too much short-term risk at the moment in my opinion; the looming rate cuts could have an effect on POG ... good, or bad, depending on how much they cut them by.


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Too much short-term risk at the moment in my opinion; the looming rate cuts could have an effect on POG ... good, or bad, depending on how much they cut them by.





On the contrary, rate cuts are what is causing the $US index to drop and it is the US dollar index drop that has been the mirror image of the gold price  all the way back to 2001. 

For a currency to restore value interest rates need to rise.  Its why the Aussie $ has been rising these last few years.  

Absolutely no risk in that for me but each to his own.  And I have been wrong before.


----------



## Nyden

explod said:


> On the contrary, rate cuts are what is causing the $US index to drop and it is the US dollar index drop that has been the mirror image of the gold price  all the way back to 2001.
> 
> For a currency to restore value interest rates need to rise.  Its why the Aussie $ has been rising these last few years.
> 
> Absolutely no risk in that for me but each to his own.  And I have been wrong before.




Yes, but gold is not immune to sentiment. If the rates are cut an amount less than expected ... it's kind of like _news not being as bad as already factored in_.

If it were as straight forward as many seem to think; why not sell up the house, & put it all in gold today? If after the upcoming rate cut, it's almost assured that gold is going to rally? Because it may not.

People are talking about a whole 1% cut, what if it's only .25, or .5? Will the lemmings of the market see this lesser damage to the USD, as somehow something to strengthen it?

Whilst, here in Australia; I'm reading nothing but views that interest rates are only going to go up, or remain flat for at least 1-2 years ...


----------



## MRC & Co

The thing is Nyden, your risk is only as large as what you are willing to risk.  Set your stops.  So its no more risky than any other form of investment at the moment.  

I think with inflation lower than expected, the Fed will see this as a good sign for further rate cuts and after their emergency intervention lately, it appears they are willing to surprise the masses once more.  

Its all about educated guesses.  If you follow the herd, you will never become a successful trader.

Gold pushing back up towards $1000.

As for selling the house, I dont own property at the moment (bad investment I beleive).  But my equivelent at the moment is gold.  Thing is, if I get raked over, I can sell on the spot, whereas if I owned a house, I could loose more than my "stop".


----------



## Nyden

MRC & Co said:


> The thing is Nyden, your risk is only as large as what you are willing to risk.  Set your stops.  So its no more risky than any other form of investment at the moment.
> 
> I think with inflation lower than expected, the Fed will see this as a good sign for further rate cuts and after their emergency intervention lately, it appears they are willing to surprise the masses once more.
> 
> Its all about educated guesses.  If you follow the herd, you will never become a successful trader.




My only current investment is AUD cash  I avoid risk like the plague. Only ever invest in a bull market with stability; not a bear with volatility.

Stop losses in this market still aren't entirely safe; you can be gapped out quite badly. If something can gain 4-5% in a day, it can surely lose it, & frankly - a 5% loss in 1 day is too much for me.


----------



## GreatPig

Gurgler said:


> what implications can we draw from the piercing the top of the channel - a potential retrace?



The increased possibility of a consolidation until it moves across to the bottom of the channel again.

However, my Fib target being reached will make me watch more closely for a somewhat larger correction, possibly out of the channel altogether.

The current level of market intervention makes anything possible though, so it's really just a watch-closely-and-see situation.

GP


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Yes, but gold is not immune to sentiment. If the rates are cut an amount less than expected ... it's kind of like _news not being as bad as already factored in_.
> 
> If it were as straight forward as many seem to think; why not sell up the house, & put it all in gold today? If after the upcoming rate cut, it's almost assured that gold is going to rally? Because it may not.
> 
> People are talking about a whole 1% cut, what if it's only .25, or .5? Will the lemmings of the market see this lesser damage to the USD, as somehow something to strengthen it?
> 
> Whilst, here in Australia; I'm reading nothing but views that interest rates are only going to go up, or remain flat for at least 1-2 years ...




Funny you say that because I have sold my Real Estate and put most of it into gold stocks and bullion.

And on every rate cut gold has gone up and if you do a bit of study, as you should before you invest in what I say, you will find it to be almost absolute.

Investing is as simple as that.  Read Warren Buffet to find out more on that.  My mantra is, "keep it simple stupid"

But I can assure you that when I notice the underlying fundamentals go against gold, as well as the trend I will be out in a flash.

And interest rates are going up because there is a money supply problem.  What I ws eferring to as I thought you were also, is the US Reserve Fed rate.  It is what the US Fed are doing that is impacting on the gold price, and has been since the Nixon Bretton Woods agreement made back in the 1970's.

Although you appear to aver otherwise I think you need to get into a bit more study on the subject.

And another great piece of Buffet dogma, "do not invest in anything that you do not fully understand"   A bit like measure twice cut once.


----------



## MRC & Co

Nyden said:


> My only current investment is AUD cash  I avoid risk like the plague. Only ever invest in a bull market with stability; not a bear with volatility.
> 
> Stop losses in this market still aren't entirely safe; you can be gapped out quite badly. If something can gain 4-5% in a day, it can surely lose it, & frankly - a 5% loss in 1 day is too much for me.




Thats good, stick to your guns until you are prooven otherwise.

You can be gapped out.  5% in a day assumes your stop is set at 5% below cost price and that 100% of your portfolio is in gold.

Good to see gold above $1000 again.  

One of the most dangerous things is being worried about the price already being too high and so not getting on board.  That is a HUGE phsycological flaw that I have read (mainly read) and seen affect many a budding trader.  

Good luck!


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co what instrument are you using to trade Gold?


----------



## MRC & Co

At the moment I just bought some actual gold bullion but mainly just gold equities (similar to explod and perhaps Uncle I guess) along with the gold ticker.  No futures.  Still have some cash to load up on more, but waiting for price/momentum change in equity markets (if that doesnt happen, I will just continue to hold the cash).

Whys that TH?


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> At the moment I just bought some actual gold bullion but mainly just gold equities (similar to explod and perhaps Uncle I guess) along with the gold ticker.  No futures.  Still have some cash to load up on more, but waiting for price/momentum change in equity markets (if that doesnt happen, I will just continue to hold the cash).
> 
> Whys that TH?




Equities I bought are SGX, SBM, OGC, LGL.

Just sold EQI, love the company but dont like the fact its so hedged.

So there you go, I am completely transparent and you can see for yourself TH.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Equities I bought are SGX, SBM, OGC, LGL.
> 
> Just sold EQI, love the company but dont like the fact its so hedged.
> 
> So there you go, I am completely transparent and you can see for yourself TH.




Just wondering if you were trading the gold Futures. Thats all.


----------



## cuttlefish

Bit of a dillemma as to when the de-coupling will occur.  I can't help thinking the Dow hasn't factored in the magnitude of the problem yet, given last nights mild reaction to the bear sterns situation, and there are still significant falls to come in the US markets.  If our markets continue to follow the US down then I also can't help thinking that the effect will be indiscriminate and gold stocks will also be sold down along with the others due to the simple and uncontrollable effect of people needing to unwind their leveraged positions (margin loans, equity loans etc.) - so the initial flight to cash will continue.  Thus even though there is value in the gold sector is it possible there will be even better value down the track due to the forced selling that could occur.  (particularly in the small to mid cap new producer area where quiet achievers can go unnoticed in a flat market and build good value while drifting or falling on low liquidity).   

I should qualify that at this stage I'm looking to receive value through the cashflow generated by production - I don't expect the market to get excitable in the gold sector or any sector any time soon due to the loss of sentiment from the current rout - but over performance on the dividend/cashflow front by new producers means the good returns can still be had even if the market isn't pricing them particularly well.  The overperformance on share prices will come down the track when the dust has settled and people have licked their wounds and lifted their heads up again.

I wouldn't dare not to hold a good quantity of gold stocks because I don't trust cash in the bank at the moment.  I don't currently hold physical gold because I'm assuming the good value producers will provide better leverage, but am considering getting some.  Any thoughts as to the security of gold producer holdings and how paranoid should I get on this front.   A share in a solid producer of physical gold in a country like Australia is that as good as holding physical gold?  If not where do people see the differences in the risk profile?   (Obviously in an extreme situation physical gold can be protected/hidden from govt attempts to remove gold from the hands of the people but thats quite an extreme situation).


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Just wondering if you were trading the gold Futures. Thats all.




No, futures are still something I am learning all the ins and outs of.  Still have a couple books I want to get through on them.

Dont like to enter into things I dont fully understand.

But no doubt, I will try my hand in the futures market one of these days.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cuttlefish said:


> Bit of a dillemma as to when the de-coupling will occur. I can't help thinking the Dow hasn't factored in the magnitude of the problem yet, given last nights mild reaction to the bear sterns situation, and there are still significant falls to come in the US markets. If our markets continue to follow the US down then I also can't help thinking that the effect will be indiscriminate and gold stocks will also be sold down along with the others due to the simple and uncontrollable effect of people needing to unwind their leveraged positions (margin loans, equity loans etc.) - so the initial flight to cash will continue. Thus even though there is value in the gold sector is it possible there will be even better value down the track due to the forced selling that could occur. (particularly in the small to mid cap new producer area where quiet achievers can go unnoticed in a flat market and build good value while drifting or falling on low liquidity).




This is the exact dilemma I am faced with now, as I'm not sure most of the investing lemmings realise how close the world came to a full blown market crash with the Bear Stearns fiasco.

So the question then becomes for gold equity holders is 'have I bought shares at such a price that I can withstand a 20%-30% fall in price", as gold equities will be caught in the pleb shares contagion, unless there is a commensurate dramatic increase in the gold price.

As shown over the last 24hrs, there is a good level of 'flighty' spec premium attached to the pog; wether or not gold becomes the asset of last resort in a market meltdown is still to be tested (currently holding about 80% in gold equities).


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> This is the exact dilemma I am faced with now, as I'm not sure most of the investing lemmings realise how close the world came to a full blown market crash with the Bear Stearns fiasco.
> 
> So the question then becomes for gold equity holders is 'have I bought shares at such a price that I can withstand a 20%-30% fall in price", as gold equities will be caught in the pleb shares contagion, unless there is a commensurate dramatic increase in the gold price.
> 
> As shown over the last 24hrs, there is a good level of 'flighty' spec premium attached to the pog; wether or not gold becomes the asset of last resort in a market meltdown is still to be tested (currently holding about 80% in gold equities).




Yes I have been troubled to some degree as well.  Yesterday I chose to sell LGL and brought GOLD at $109.06 a unit.   I feel a lot of larger players are liquidating gold stocks to meet margins in other areas, the Bear Sterns story is just a beginning in my view, so the flight for cash will remain for some time.  It was interesting last night that the Dow virtually held ground whilst the NYSE dropped 164 points or 1.7%, so who is fooling who here.  The US and all other world market with them are on a tight rope over a precipice and the panic becoming evident by the US Fed makes me very nervous indeed.

So I am 40% in physical, 10% from yesteday in GOLD (as on the ASX) and 20% in small caps which I hold for the long term.  SBM, MMN, GDR, NGF and RNG.   The other % is invested in an entirely different area.

Sure the gold price may go down or not move for awhile but the upside is more probable as gold is a tangible that cannot be deflated.   If all else goes wrong I feel as insulated as one can be perhaps.


----------



## MRC & Co

Looks like POG is anticipating some hefty rate cuts.  

1006.90 and climbing, good to see it doing what oil has and remaining above that phsycological barrier after testing it. 

Tonight could be good 

Or maybe I just spoke too soon..............


----------



## cuttlefish

Uncle Festivus said:


> As shown over the last 24hrs, there is a good level of 'flighty' spec premium attached to the pog; wether or not gold becomes the asset of last resort in a market meltdown is still to be tested (currently holding about 80% in gold equities).




I still feel that all the fundamentals are in place for a strong gold price.  More hundreds of billions will need to be pumped into the system to bail out other banks and the USD decline will continue.  The fed isn't just providing liquidity through rate cuts - they really are pumping massive amounts of new money into the system taking over the crud debt.   This is real banana republic stuff and eventually could lead to massive USD devaluation and/or strong inflation or hyper inflation.  Hyper inflation in the US dollar will be catastrophic and will lead to massive migration into gold and other hard assets.  It will also of course have potential political ramifications.  It is this latter part that potentially makes physical gold more attractive.

The sheer dishonesty about the size of the problem so far is evidence enough for me that there is more to come on this.


----------



## cuttlefish

Any views on how significant wage inflation/hyper inflation would affect unencumbered low cost producers?  Would input costs rise before revenue or is POG going to lead inflation up?


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> So I am 40% in physical, 10% from yesteday in GOLD (as on the ASX) and 20% in small caps which I hold for the long term.  SBM, MMN, GDR, NGF and RNG.   The other % is invested in an entirely different area.
> 
> Sure the gold price may go down or not move for awhile but the upside is more probable as gold is a tangible that cannot be deflated.   If all else goes wrong I feel as insulated as one can be perhaps.




You meant 40% in UNALLOCATED, Physical gold? Remember, never trust anyone to hold gold for you. I'm trying to move toward the actual physical now. The warning signs are getting more and more clear and I have less and less trust on the ETFs. (including GOLD.ax)


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> You meant 40% in UNALLOCATED, Physical gold? Remember, never trust anyone to hold gold for you. I'm trying to move toward the actual physical now. The warning signs are getting more and more clear and I have less and less trust on the ETFs. (including GOLD.ax)




I have my 40% of physical tucked away in a vault over which only I and another family member has control.   Like you I do not trust anyone to hold it either.  However a short term holding of GOLD as on the ASX is another matter.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like gold bugs wanted at least a 1% cut.


----------



## Nyden

kennas said:


> Looks like gold bugs wanted at least a 1% cut.




Which is what I thought would happen. Glad I didn't buy yesterday 
USD is up ... well, let's see if she holds.


----------



## Sean K

Nyden said:


> Which is what I thought would happen. Glad I didn't buy yesterday
> USD is up ... well, let's see if she holds.



Heli Ben indicated more cuts if required. USD is in serious trouble (well, has been and is) with oil so high as well. Perhaps just a correction in gold.


----------



## treefrog

explod said:


> And on every rate cut gold has gone up and if you do a bit of study, as you should before you invest in what I say, you will find it to be almost absolute.
> 
> Investing is as simple as that.  Read Warren Buffet to find out more on that.  My mantra is, "keep it simple stupid"
> 
> But I can assure you that when I notice the underlying fundamentals go against gold, as well as the trend I will be out in a flash.
> 
> Although you appear to aver otherwise I think you need to get into a bit more study on the subject.
> 
> And another great piece of Buffet dogma, "do not invest in anything that you do not fully understand"   A bit like measure twice cut once.




I take it that's a big "Arrrr Crap" now then Ex??


----------



## Nyden

kennas said:


> Heli Ben indicated more cuts if required. USD is in serious trouble (well, has been and is) with oil so high as well. Perhaps just a correction in gold.




Well, of course he indicated that. He wants the markets to rally; no sense in a rate cut if it's perceived as something bad by the people ... the people need the idea of that free lunch.

I truly don't believe they'll go down the path of 0% rates, & in the end they'll be forced to admit to a recession, & let nature run its course.

One *has* to assume that BB is not a complete idiot. He must have an expertise in his field, an excellent education, & must have a strong understanding of what he is doing. Surely the rest of his lot would be disagreeing with him, left right & center if he was as utterly clueless as many seem to make him out to be. 

I don't believe him to be making the right choices at the moment, but one of these days the shoe is going to fall; & the fed will announce no rate cuts. What will happen at that point? If the punters have factored in a 1% cut, or .5, will the dollar soar; & gold collapse?

I did of course refer to if she'll hold in the very-short term, I don't expect the USD to hold ground for long 


... Too early in the morning, where's my coffee :


 - The concept of an indication, is that it's not set in stone. It's all about interpretation, & perception ... and he can quite easily 'backflip' on it.


----------



## CamKawa

Well I’m feeling a bit shocked after last nights developments. The DOW is up +3.51% to 420.41 its fourth largest point gain ever and the USD is up +0.59 cents 71.95. The spot POG has dropped from the 1020’s in London trading down to 978’s in NY. I can’t see the USD rallying for terribly long though and oil is up +3.10 to 108.78. I think the POG may make a come back after the equities hysteria has calmed down. 

So who’s got a faith in gold stronger than their religion and will buy some more today? It’s only logical, buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high.


----------



## rederob

Nyden said:


> I truly don't believe they'll go down the path of 0% rates, & in the end they'll be forced to admit to a recession, & let nature run its course.



Your belief will be tested.
I am about 99% certain of zero %.


----------



## cuttlefish

The wall street rally might actually drag some gold stocks higher today.
I don't see any change in the fundamentals for gold or the USD - they've just announced even more money being fed into the system, they're propping up banks instead of letting them go bust - they're providing the USD like monopoly money - at some point that has to devalue it.   Best to wait till the correction exhausts itself though rather than jumping on it too soon.


----------



## CamKawa

cuttlefish said:


> Best to wait till the correction exhausts itself though rather than jumping on it too soon.



Care to give a time frame?


----------



## wayneL

rederob said:


> Your belief will be tested.
> I am about 99% certain of zero %.




Say it ain't so!!!

Actually, it's not far to go, and they've used a hell of a lot of ammo.... and the game is still in the first quarter.

(with apologies for the mixed metaphor)


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> Say it ain't so!!!
> 
> Actually, it's not far to go, and they've used a hell of a lot of ammo.... and the game is still in the first quarter.
> 
> (with apologies for the mixed metaphor)



I agree that the stone will keep rolling till there's some seriously spilt milk. But 0%? Hmmm


----------



## MRC & Co

kennas said:


> I agree that the stone will keep rolling till there's some seriously spilt milk. But 0%? Hmmm




Yeh, this is not a liquidity trap (even then monetary policy is not effective), its stagflation.

I cannot see 0%.  Split Fed today and their mention of inflation is an obvious indication of their intentions.  1% maybe, just to leave some ammo in the gun.

As for POG, disappointing!  However, not to worry, fundamentals are still just as intact as ever!  Funds just realise where the bounce will be in the near-term and are shifting assets accordingly.  I will be doing a little shifting myself over today, but still remaining well and truly exposed to gold.

Not long before we get POG up above 1000 again IMO.  

Not to mention, gold equities could well rise today, considering POG is still relatively high.  

4% or so more than likely for the XAO.


----------



## CamKawa

Here's a US is going to 0% pep talk from Dr Marc Faber. Head for the video links on the right.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2193110.htm


----------



## cuttlefish

CamKawa said:


> Care to give a time frame?




No crystal ball here - might retreat for a while though until it finds its legs again - depends on how long the delusion from last night can continue and when they bump into the next iceberg.

I do believe the US can go to 0% but don't see it solving any problems and so not necessarily that likely.  The real way they are devaluing the USD is by exchanging treasuries for bad debt and we've got no really clear picture of the magnitude of that.  Stagflation is probably the thing they will most likely want to avoid - hence the rhetoric in combination with the actions - everythings ok here - we will protect you - spend, grow, borrow, be happy, be euphoric, consume, produce - its all ok - never fear, Bernanke's here.  If they can avoid stagflation and instead get inflation going again the next challenge is to prevent runaway inflation - that will mean raising rates.   The more money they inject and the more confidence that mistakes will be protected the more wreckless the whole thing can become and the harder to prevent the runaway inflation.


----------



## MRC & Co

Nyden said:


> Which is what I thought would happen. Glad I didn't buy yesterday
> USD is up ... well, let's see if she holds.




Hindsight is a wonderful thing ey Nyden 

Trouble is, you are sitting in cash, so you will not get a thing from this bounce.

One question, will you be entering today to try and take advantage of some momentum, or what will it take before you re-enter the market?

Do you have the trading courage for risk, or are you going to be a top jumper?

Honest questions, no insult intended, just interested in trading phsycology.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> I hope that doesn't turn out to be Maxwells silver hammer up there..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




More hindsight???
  "Bang bang Maxwells silver hammer came down.....""


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nyden said:


> One *has* to assume that BB is not a complete idiot. He must have an expertise in his field, an excellent education, & must have a strong understanding of what he is doing. Surely the rest of his lot would be disagreeing with him, left right & center if he was as utterly clueless as many seem to make him out to be.





Well no, he's not a complete idiot, he's a financial academic, sort of the same thing really. Thankfully the world has been given the likes of Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush & Brown to give a gold bugs life meaning and hope for the future 

The pog has tip toed through my support zone (980) so I'm buying at these levels, and the Dow was too good to pass up, so gone short there. It's all a matter of being patient now. Thank you Ben and IOU nothings.


----------



## explod

treefrog said:


> I take it that's a big "Arrrr Crap" now then Ex??




Not at all, it always takes a few days to filter through. On the first day, as planned by the spin, the market says helleluja. 

Of course I am not a short term trader so not looking for the instant result.   These rate cuts if you check back have always been followed SOME DAYS LATER by big drops in the dollar, THEN FOLLOWING THAT a rise in the gold price.

A great buying opportunity (as posted by others above) for gold bugs today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Interesting trading last 2 weeks(if you go into such noise that is)

Most of the rising in POG has come on very little volume. Where the falls are on big volume. Whose slipping out the back door??


----------



## Temjin

Keep it simple guys.

- Nothing ever go straight up or down. Corrections / Consolidations are all part of it.
- Don't argue against the market. If 0.75% cut wasn't enough, then so be it. 

I have been quite uncomfortable in buying more because of the technicals. Now would be a great time while the US dollar rallys to relieve their extreme oversold situation. 

If you are short term trader, then just ignore what I just said.


----------



## tigerboi

Here is the 2 latest twiggs gold charts where you see its continual upsurge & retest of support levels,myself i put it all into gold in the 1st wek of january,looking way ahead to $2,000+ times,with bernanke(meek man that hides behind the bush!) working overtime on the printers its up,up & away...TB


----------



## explod

tigerboi said:


> Here is the 2 latest twiggs gold charts where you see its continual upsurge & retest of support levels,myself i put it all into gold in the 1st wek of january,looking way ahead to $2,000+ times,with bernanke(meek man that hides behind the bush!) working overtime on the printers its up,up & away...TB




We could probably wack in another support at US980 where it consolidated sideways from the 3rd to 13th instant. 

I would be surprised if the PPP dont try to make a break below that before the next 24 hours are out.   Huge volatility is to be expected now but feel the next breakout will be swift and large from a low base.   You can be sure that the PPP are accumulating/playing (short and long) this market for ammuntion to dump in line with thier releases of spin.   It is about the only ammunition they have left to stave off a very dire situation from their viewpoint.  

I think it has begun to filter through to the sheeple now that a rising gold price is an indication that things are going downhill in the financials.

Many are surprised at the so called stupidity (sic) of the Fed and JWB tream.  I have said it before, this is entirely political.  The Republicans are desperate to demonstrate all is well for the upcoming Presidential election.  Futile in view of the sub-oprime as that may seem.

The next week or two will be interesting viewing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> You can be sure that the PPP are accumulating/playing (short and long) this market for ammuntion to dump in line with thier releases of spin.   It is about the only ammunition they have left to stave off a very dire situation from their viewpoint.




Can you explain what you mean by "accumulating/playing (short and long)"? Are you saying long one market, short another? Or short and long the same market which makes no sense!


----------



## barrett

CamKawa said:


> Here's a US is going to 0% pep talk from Dr Marc Faber. Head for the video links on the right.
> http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2193110.htm



Thanks for posting this.  One point he brings up is the massive derivatives market, which dwarfs subprime, Alt-A and every other market, and has yet not really been involved in this meltdown.

The Fed is aware of this threat and there's one thing I'm quite sure of - the Fed will do anything - absolutely anything - to prevent the financial system collapsing.  Among other things, they could write interest rate option contracts, buy bad debt, drop interest rates to zero, and eventually monetise (print money to buy) treasury bonds.   In one official Fed paper they even suggest 'money rains' - basically handing out cash.. in another, creating deeply negative real interest rates by imposing a say, 1% monthly 'carry tax' on paper currency and deposits to try and force consumption and investment.   The question of whether or not interest rates will go to zero is only part of the picture, given that Ben Bernanke has made a career of studying monetary stimuli _other_ than rate cuts.

For a brief review of these 'Unconventional Measures' there's a great article on Faber's website   http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/public/pSTD.cfm?pageSPS_ID=1000
Click on "Towards Hyperinflation" PDF on the right of the page, the article starts on p.5, it's called "Unconventional Measures:Bernankeism and the Destruction of the Dollar" by Robert Blumen.  

I think it's important for every gold investor to read over this.  It spells out the extent of the Fed's intent and means to prevent, and even reverse, asset price deflation.  Every one of the 'unconventional measures' is highly inflationary.

As mentioned above, there's an election coming up this year and huge fiscal stimuli are in preparation, which will also be very bullish for gold..


----------



## szandor

Just a question,if someone had cash and wanted to physically buy gold bars,what would be the best way about doing so in sydney?


----------



## imagineer

szandor said:


> just a question,if someone had cash and wanted to physically buy gold bars,what would be the best way about doing so in sydney?




ABC Bullion in the city check yelloewpages for bullion dealers.
Neil


----------



## szandor

so what kind of levels do people think gold will reach in the next 6-12 months,iam thinking of investing cash which is currently sitting in a term deposit and buying as much gold as possible???


----------



## Uncle Festivus

szandor said:


> just a question,if someone had cash and wanted to physically buy gold bars,what would be the best way about doing so in sydney?




                                                 AGR Matthey                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Level 2, 112 Castlereagh St Sydney NSW 2000
                                                 ph: 1800 068 335
Alloy & Gold Supply (NSW) Pty Ltd                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Suite 505A, 5th Floor, Trust Building, 155 King Street Sydney NSW 2000                                                                                                                                                                                                        ph: (02) 9261 4404
Australian Bullion Company                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Suite 30, Level 6, 88 Pitt St Sydney NSW 2000
                                                 ph: (02) 9231 4511
Jaggard's Est 1963                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Level 8, 74 Pitt St Sydney NSW 2000 - map                                                                                                                                                      
                                                 ph: (02) 9230 0886
Matthey are very helpful


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Can you explain what you mean by "accumulating/playing (short and long)" are you saying long one market, short another. or short and long the same market which makes no sense!




They back off when gold price goes up and just before exhaustion bring out   bullish news for the Dow then dump gold and go short.   When it hits the bottom of the move, as now, they would be buying back in to go long.

The PPP would be working with the media, markets and the Fed to achieve these objectives IMHO.   They know only too well that the drop of the Fed rate soon sells of the US$, (as it is, down half a % today)   and continually run the average investor on a break.  

After their (US) market closed this morning they performed a typical dump, as Asia has come back in it has been gradually rising all day.   The next upmove is starting and looks like we have a new support at US$980

It is all worth having a good think about.

As we have said, the next few days will be interesting times indeed.


----------



## MRC & Co

I agree explod.  

No doubt in my mind this is done, its a quiet well known fact.

RBA does similar things with AUD etc and historically they have made a HECK of a lot of $$ doing it!

Funny how there are rules to stop manipulation of the markets, unless of course its the rulemakers doing it themselves!  Go free markets and capitalism at their brilliant best!


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> It is all worth having a good think about.




You reckon!!

Just looking at volume during US & Asian times your theory makes little sense.
To be able to smash a market during a high volume session (the US) and reckon you can then cover and go long during Asian time (when vol is about 5% of US) is ridiculous.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> You reckon!!
> 
> Just looking at volume during US & Asian times your theory makes little sense.
> To be able to smash a market during a high volume session (the US) and reckon you can then cover and go long during Asian time (when vol is about 5% of US) is ridiculous.




Perhaps buying after they have caused a reasonable sized fall, most large red candles subsequently have quiet a tale.  

Though, I dont factor any of these kind of things into my trading, so dont look into it in too much depth.

However, it is undeniable IMHO that the authorities that be do manipulate markets as they see fit, within their reach.

Cheers


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> You reckon!!
> 
> Just looking at volume during US & Asian times your theory makes little sense.
> To be able to smash a market during a high volume session (the US) and reckon you can then cover and go long during Asian time (when vol is about 5% of US) is ridiculous.





Yep, I am referring to swing plays of a week or fortnight duration.  I have been watch the PPP work this out over the last three years, and yes, playing us for suckers.


----------



## Kauri

The ubiquitous "profit-taking" may actually explain the recent, and not so recent, retraces in golds fortunes. Hedge funds, commodity funds, institutions, maybe even CB's, needing funds for margin calls.. (e.g.RubiT).. balancing of exposure, liquidity needs, or even plain old computer driven trading profit-take levels, but maybe lumping it all under Plunge Protection Peam gives us that sense of conspiracy that we seem to thrive on... I thunk..
Cheers
.........Kauri

P.S..
and why is POG now rising???... is the PPP/T now finished selling... is it bargain hunters... is it fears bred of rumours of a UK bank in trouble and now also a hedge fund... or is it just that it is due to rise because it has fallen enough???? 
 Whatever, trade the swings and roundabouts as they appear (from a short-termer)...


----------



## MRC & Co

I agree also Kauri, could well be.

This is why I only trade the price action and dont factor in these kind of things into my trading.


----------



## rederob

Kauri said:


> ..
> and why is POG now rising???... is the PPP/T now finished selling... is it bargain hunters... is it fears bred of rumours of a UK bank in trouble and now also a hedge fund... or is it just that it is due to rise because it has fallen enough????
> Whatever, trade the swings and roundabouts as they appear (from a short-termer)...



It's rising because the underlying bull trend will keep it rising!
It will fall whenever it stops rising  because any reason to sell more than buy will reduce its price!
From a long termer, it's not too late to get in and enjoy the ride until the US economy proverbially shi.ts itself: It certainly already has runs on the Big Board.
For the near term there does not look like a major retrace will occur, albeit daily falls in excess of a 3% range will remain play while market volatility continues.
I am amused by people that are speculating on the US economy soon turning around because Fed cuts trick investors into plunging their money into underperforming US equities.
Bernanke has a few pet cats, and will ensure he gives each a testing 9 bounces. So beware the sucker rallies: There more than one coming to a market you trade.


----------



## Kauri

rederob said:


> It's rising because the underlying bull trend will keep it rising!
> It will fall whenever it stops rising because any reason to sell more than buy will reduce its price!
> .





  maybe however....The rumors about a U.K. bank in trouble are morphing toward HBOS now with trading in the bank"s shares suspended limit down.  Joining the party is also vague talk about Credit Suisse potentially having an interest in UBS, perhaps even at the prompting of the Swiss government.   
Swings and roundabouts... it's probably only the PPP/T?

Busy.. very very busy...
...................................Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> maybe however....The rumors about a U.K. bank in trouble are morphing toward HBOS now with trading in the bank"s shares suspended limit down. Joining the party is also vague talk about Credit Suisse potentially having an interest in UBS, perhaps even at the prompting of the Swiss government.
> Swings and roundabouts... it's probably only the PPP/T?
> 
> Busy.. very very busy...
> ...................................Kauri





rumour of a possible 09:00GMT announcement from the BoE.... talk of a friendly merger betwixt SocGen and Uber discounted... for now...
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## CamKawa

rederob said:


> So beware the sucker rallies: There more than one coming to a market you trade.



I agree there will be no sustained rally in equities until house prices in the US turn around.

Just think if you were looking at buying a house in the US at the moment. If say you are a renter, you would be enjoying the 3 months free rent the landlord may have given you to in order to get you to sign up for 12 months. Then you would have to give this up to buy a home, then be willing to pay more for it than what is worth recently after you secure a loan in the face of tightening lending standards, while not considering rising unemployment with media constantly yelling the R word at you. It's a fair sort of an ask for a new home buyer.

Then there are investors. If they buy an investment property who are they going to rent it out to and how much rent are they going to get? Will they have a choice of tenants let alone find a good one?

I was looking at this site today http://www.realtor.com/realtytimes/...opview/homejs.htm?open&pID=r.com2&poe=realtor which gives some feed back on the state of the market. Some Real Estate Agents are saying that they have 6 months worth of houses on their books at the current selling rate, while others are saying they have 13 months. Yes that's right, even if no new houses came onto the market it would take 13 months for them to sell all their existing stock 

Those people who buy equities now must be looking *really* long and why bother when precious metals are giving a positive return now?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Isn't this fun!! Another one of those high vol down bars. Who woulda thought?


----------



## MRC & Co

WOW, New York opens and BOOM!  Below $970!  Following nice trading from Asia!

Downward bias now for 3 consecutive days as New York trading opens!  

TH, are you trading (selling) gold futures, or your just in here to rub it in?  What team are you on!?


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Yep, I am referring to swing plays of a week or fortnight duration.  I have been watch the PPP work this out over the last three years, and yes, playing us for suckers.




And they have done it well this time.  US$ index has barely moved.  This is no more than a sell off to show the sheeple who is in charge.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> TH, are you trading (selling) gold futures, or your just in here to rub it in?  What team are you on!?




With my ears pinned back MRC.

16 round trips last hour and just warming up. No need to get touchy its only money.


----------



## kransky

PPP?

Surely Gold futures are expected to fall when the market recovers from the Bear Sterns collapse.


----------



## chops_a_must

Haven't been studying the market recently, too much work/ study.

But this looks like a volatility break down to me. And it looks to be right across the board for the inflation complex.

A lot of options plays going short on gold above 1000, and going into the new contracts of oil, apparently. Probably GS going against their own advice. Ha! 

Everything still points to a sharp rally in the rubbish, for the short term, if rumours aren't given weight...


----------



## explod

explod said:


> We could probably wack in another support at US980 where it consolidated sideways from the 3rd to 13th instant.
> 
> I would be surprised if the PPP dont try to make a break below that before the next 24 hours are out.   Huge volatility is to be expected now but feel the next breakout will be swift and large from a low base.   You can be sure that the PPP are accumulating/playing (short and long) this market for ammuntion to dump in line with thier releases of spin.   It is about the only ammunition they have left to stave off a very dire situation from their viewpoint.
> 
> I think it has begun to filter through to the sheeple now that a rising gold price is an indication that things are going downhill in the financials.
> 
> Many are surprised at the so called stupidity (sic) of the Fed and JWB tream.  I have said it before, this is entirely political.  The Republicans are desperate to demonstrate all is well for the upcoming Presidential election.  Futile in view of the sub-oprime as that may seem.
> 
> The next week or two will be interesting viewing.







And they have done it to a tee.     Conspiracy theory or not Kauri it is just a habit I picked up.    We should see more confidence in the Dow at the open.

Be interesting to see what pans out.


----------



## cuttlefish

> Surely Gold futures are expected to fall when the market recovers from the Bear Sterns collapse.




Yeah its good to see that the credit crisis is finally over - it was looking touch and go there for a while - Bernanke really saved the day lol .  I wonder if they'll announce the end of the credit crisis on CNN tonight?  I guess I'll sell up all the goldies and buy some bank stocks tomorrow ... Macquarie looks good lol.
</sarcasm>






			
				Trembling Hand said:
			
		

> No need to get touchy its only money.




Yeah there's a nice irony in using that line in a thread dominated by gold bugs.  It is only money TH - careful you don't lose your gold trading those future lol.

On a serious note I'm prepared for the fact that gold could drift down/sideways possibly for quite a while - but when it goes it will come out of left field and take no prisoners imo.


----------



## kransky

PPP?


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> Yeah its good to see that the credit crisis is finally over - it was looking touch and go there for a while - Bernanke really saved the day lol .   .




LOL



cuttlefish said:


> Yeah there's a nice irony in using that line in a thread dominated by gold bugs.  It is only money TH - careful you don't lose your gold trading those future lol.




Good to see that there is still some sharp fish in the sea.


And back on a more serious note. There's lots of stops getting taken out here. Every little tick to a new low is triggering a $1 or $2 hit. Nasty


----------



## kransky

cuttlefish said:


> Yeah its good to see that the credit crisis is finally over - it was looking touch and go there for a while - Bernanke really saved the day lol .  I wonder if they'll announce the end of the credit crisis on CNN tonight?




nice work... from cnbc:

Today, there's a lot of buzz in the market that we may have already seen the bottom.

"I think we’re at the bottom of this so-called crisis. And I think we move higher from here," Fritz Meyer, senior investment officer at AIM Investments, told CNBC. "The Fed’s been fumbling around for the right key to unlock the liquidity log jam. … I think they finally found it."

Harry Clark, president of Clark Capital Management Group, agrees. "I think the all-clear has been given. We look for some drastic event -- Bear Stearns was it," Clark told CNBC.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight lowered the capital requirement on government-backed mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FRE to 20 percent from 30 percent, a move that will provide up to $200 billion in immediate liquidity for stressed mortgage markets.


----------



## Trembling Hand

PPP? = Plunge Protection Team

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets


----------



## explod

kransky said:


> PPP?




And a nice shakeout at that


----------



## kransky

thanks


----------



## cuttlefish

getting hit down well - will be interesting to see whether covering brings it back up in the short term, or if this is the start of a drifting period.  The sharpness of the move makes me think volatility and more up and down for a while yet.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> With my ears pinned back MRC.
> 
> 16 round trips last hour and just warming up. No need to get touchy its only money.




Dont worry, Im not.

Luckily I diversified today (though, gold still a decent size of my portfolio) with this change in momentum of gold/global indices. 

Gotta stick with price movements and momentum at this time.  Ride the waves!

Capitulation now.  Not a pretty sight.  Might have to wait until some more inflation results until we get some real gold upside.....

Congrats on your fast ride, must be like the giant drop!  Ride over, looks like the covers are on.


----------



## cuttlefish

kransky said:


> Today, there's a lot of buzz in the market that we may have already seen the bottom.
> 
> "I think we’re at the bottom of this so-called crisis. And I think we move higher from here," Fritz Meyer, senior investment officer at AIM Investments, told CNBC. "The Fed’s been fumbling around for the right key to unlock the liquidity log jam. … I think they finally found it."
> 
> Harry Clark, president of Clark Capital Management Group, agrees. "I think the all-clear has been given. We look for some drastic event -- Bear Stearns was it," Clark told CNBC.
> 
> The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight lowered the capital requirement on government-backed mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FRE to 20 percent from 30 percent, a move that will provide up to $200 billion in immediate liquidity for stressed mortgage markets.




lol - right on queue - I guess this might continue for a while until the next iceberg (unless all the icebergs are gone - maybe it really is over - but the urgency of the various moves - weekend meetings etc. - and the last minute nature of it all makes me skeptical).


----------



## wayneL

cuttlefish said:


> lol - right on queue - I guess this might continue for a while until the next iceberg (unless all the icebergs are gone - maybe it really is over - but the urgency of the various moves - weekend meetings etc. - and the last minute nature of it all makes me skeptical).




The liquidity in the banking system is one thing, the real economy is another.

It's out of juice and although it continues to coast along, it's losing momentum every day. The consumer is still tapped out, *real* inflation (not the fraudulent Chinese-crap Products Index***) continues unabated, mortgage rates are still rising, honeymoon rates resetting, and the jobless rate is trickling upwards.

The above spin, as we all know, is BS.

They *may* have averted a cascading cross-default trainwreck, but there are still poisons in the mud, just waiting to hatch out.

*** They've just added horse livery charges to the CPI here in the UK... horse livery FFS!! a/ This is known to be stagnant; livery owners are bitching that they can't raise prices b/ How many "average" folks use horse livery services FFS?

It's a freakin fraud!


----------



## chops_a_must

wayneL said:


> *** They've just added horse livery charges to the CPI here in the UK... horse livery FFS!! a/ This is known to be stagnant; livery owners are bitching that they can't raise prices b/ How many "average" folks use horse livery services FFS?
> 
> It's a freakin fraud!




Oh come on Wayne, get real!

They know as well as you do that we're all headed back to the dark ages. All this regalia is now a necessity...

We can't have those four horses not looking resplendent can we?


----------



## Kimosabi

wayneL said:


> It's a freakin fraud!




Isn't this the first lesson in becoming a succesful trader?

1:  Work out that the whole system is a scam and is being manipulated by the power elite.
2:  Identify the hidden agenda's of the power elite.
3:  Position Accordingly and profit from the scam.


----------



## MRC & Co

wayneL said:


> *** They've just added horse livery charges to the CPI here in the UK... horse livery FFS!! a/ This is known to be stagnant; livery owners are bitching that they can't raise prices b/ How many "average" folks use horse livery services FFS?
> 
> It's a freakin fraud!




LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sounds like the "unemployment" rate.  

What a FRAUD!


----------



## Kauri

Rumoured large allocation switches out of commodities and into equities ahead of the holiday weekend.

remember that a number of gold producers actually lifted hedges in the latter part of last year on expectations that gold would continue to climb. This supported gains and a rush to hedge once again will only add to the longer term slide in gold. 

The ECB banks have been net sellers of gold now for 174 out of the last 180 weeks 

Funds are said to be bailing out of gold holdings

Pared expectations of a Fed rate cut to 25 bp in April

Maxwells hindsight...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## CamKawa

1030 one day and this morning it's 943 and falling.  Never a boring moment really. I don't know about PPP intervention in POG as all the other commodities right accross the board have fallen as well, especially gold's friend oil which down a massive -6.18 a barrel. Maybe all the hot money has gone to buy a stake in Visa's IPO?


----------



## explod

explod said:


> In current trade the Aussie dollar is down 1%.   The old Aussie has had a strong run of late against the $US but the interesting aspect is that the move against other currencies has reversed and this has been lifting our local gold price; now $1064
> 
> And the big one, caused a great deal of reaction yesterday in the press so will probably be kept below 1000      I think behind the scenes the PPP and general US establishment will accumulated and go long, this will give it a strong break up but when all eyes are apon there will be an enormous correction,  for the benefit of the new audience.
> 
> Will be interesting to see what pans out.
> 
> The birthday cake tastes nice though, thanks to the Barret Clan for that.




Gut feeling goes a long way.  It is intuition, a tool based on our total experience.

The term PPP from my point of view is merely the whole US thingo trying to protect appearances, as said the other day,  it's political, it's the US presidential election, it is fooling the M..gs, oops (meant to read sheeple) and US$1000 was going to be a huge stumbling block.

On my Gann chart, late April into early May is the next strong period for gold (as measured over the last 30 years),  so I expect it to consolidate sideways for 3 or 4 weeks from here.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Stick together comrades, fight the forces of evil .

FWIW, I've gone long again at these prices. Maybe the last great re-entry we may get? I see it as fund liquidation/profit stops getting taken out. Now for some base building again, and a sympathy rally, for the true believers!

And look at that, right on the lower channel support. Boll extreme too.

Gotta make some money here somehow seeing the equities will be under pressure today.


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> Stick together comrades, fight the forces of evil .
> 
> FWIW, I've gone long again at these prices. Maybe the last great re-entry we may get? I see it as fund liquidation/profit stops getting taken out. Now for some base building again, and a sympathy rally, for the true believers!
> 
> And look at that, right on the lower channel support. Boll extreme too.
> 
> Gotta make some money here somehow seeing the equities will be under pressure today.




I think you'll get some kind of fade from that breakdown UF, but with the amount of forced selling and leverage clearing, it'll have a fair bit of momentum down. Apparently there was a huge amount of options moves above 1000. Whether or not that was physical delivery or manipulation? Who knows? Probably a bit of both. But even with precious metals tanking, I'd still rather have them than cash in the bank.

Pretty scary isn't it?

But you were picking this a year ago... so it must feel pretty good. Very lucky to have intelligent dissent on these boards. Most people who read everything else but ASF, have got no idea.

I guess the important decision to be made with gold, and the market can't make up its mind, is whether we are inflating or deflating. Your stag theory versus dhukka's deflation.

Is it even possible to have both at the same time within intrinsically linked economies? And if not/ if so, what does that mean for gold?


----------



## Kauri

Japan is out today for Spring equinox holiday but looking ahead, a capitulation of Tocom gold contracts, or gold in JPY terms, when the market reopens next week will *possibly* continue to cap ??? 

from *Kyodo* today that Nippon First Securities will go bankrupt. 


UK-based Endeavor Capital has taken losses of 25% on Japanese bond trades in the 7-yr and 20-yr bonds. It has closed out nearly all the position in recent days according to the report and the fund"s prime broker, Barclay"s was not talking...  

 Large fund selling was behind the commodity sell-off, and was exacerbated by reports of funds shifting back into the USD ahead of the Easter holiday.

There are rumors this afternoon of up to three hedge funds in trouble which some are loosely linking to the commodity bail out as the funds clear positions to offset losses. One of the rumors is that the funds got the Fed rate cut call wrong yesterday, having anticipated a 100 bp rate cut. Nevertheless, the commodity fall is seen fuelling further capitulation trades into the weekend and in Asia tonight and next week and this is seen keeping pressure on ...

Rumors of hedge funds in trouble have fuelled the sharp commodity and stock market fall to day with some verified reports emerging including the losses of about 25% on JGB positions held by Endeavor Capital and reported by *Dow Jones*. *Bloomberg* reports that the fund run by ex-LTCM chief John Meriwether has lost 24$ of its $21 bln fixed income fund as of March 14 with the report stating that the fund is selling holdings to reduce borrowings. Thornburg Mortgage reported today that it now needs $1 bln to survive. *Reuters* reports that Spanish brokerage Gaesco has reorganized to prepare for a sale due to multi-million dollar losses on its derivatives desk. Rubicon Japan Trust in Australia, who had margin calls apparently on an AUD/JPY position, paid out the margin calls but at the expense of investors with the dividend payment now delayed. However, the trust is selling off Japan commercial property assets to repay another $A200 mln short term debt. 

The PPP/T comes in many forms...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## CamKawa

The media are reporting this morning POG fell last night due to
1. The market wanted 100 points but only got 75
2. This caused the USD to rally
3. The Fed is talking about going tough on inflation

As for point 3 I think the Fed will have no choice but to keep lowering rates to stave off further falls in the equity and housing markets and will jaw bone the threat of inflation as much as possible. BB knows what's going on here it's just that his hands are tide. I'll be concentrating on what the Fed actually does rather than its wishful rhetoric.

PS POG has just suffered its biggest one day loss in 2 years and oil suffered its biggest one day loss since 1991. :22_yikes::22_yikes::22_yikes:


----------



## Sean K

CamKawa said:


> PS POG has just suffered its biggest one day loss in 2 years and oil suffered its biggest one day loss since 1991. :22_yikes::22_yikes::22_yikes:



Were they % losses, or just numbers Cam? Remember how much they've gone up the past few months.


----------



## CamKawa

kennas said:


> Were they % losses, or just numbers Cam? Remember how much they've gone up the past few months.



*Commodities comedown*

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude-oil futures were hit with their biggest daily loss since early 1991, with the contract for April delivery off $4.94 to close at $104.48 a barrel. See Futures Movers. 
Elsewhere on the NYME, gold prices suffered their worst one-day drop in nearly two years, with gold for April delivery, falling $59 to finish at $945.30 an ounce. Read Metals Stocks. 

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={7D6BBB49-7713-4C69-8D3A-80BF97B3B706}


----------



## Aussiejeff

CamKawa said:


> *Commodities comedown*
> 
> On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude-oil futures were hit with their biggest daily loss since early 1991, with the contract for April delivery off $4.94 to close at $104.48 a barrel. See Futures Movers.
> Elsewhere on the NYME, gold prices suffered their worst one-day drop in nearly two years, with gold for April delivery, falling $59 to finish at $945.30 an ounce. Read Metals Stocks.
> 
> Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={7D6BBB49-7713-4C69-8D3A-80BF97B3B706}




All of which points to a *shocker* of a day looming for most of our commodities and energy stocks. As if they haven't been hammered enough lately as it is.... then of course there is the unknown of what the DOW is going to do tomorrow (likely plunge again) while our markets are closed for easter.... 

Happy Easter folks!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CamKawa said:


> The media are reporting this morning POG fell last night due to
> 1. The market wanted 100 points but only got 75
> 2. This caused the USD to rally
> 3. The Fed is talking about going tough on inflation





Come on this selling started 2 weeks ago in spite of the price rises. If you have a look at the volume about 80% has been to the down side. This started a bloody long time before the rate cute was in. It was a classic rope a dope 24 hr futures trade. Roll it up to new highs in the low vol sessions let go of your holdings in the high vol. CLASSIC!


----------



## CamKawa

Here's an interesting point of view regarding the US and inflation. Look for the audio link under the picture.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/19/2194170.htm


----------



## Kauri

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on this selling started 2 weeks ago in spite of the price rises. If you have a look at the volume about 80% has been to the down side. This started a bloody long time before the rate cute was in. It was a classic rope a dope 24 hr futures trade. Roll it up to new highs in the low vol sessions let go of your holdings in the high vol. CLASSIC!




Could you possibly post up a chart showing this rope a dope trick... so we can all see how to recognise this Classic play... Thanks in advance..  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting trading last 2 weeks(if you go into such noise that is)
> 
> Most of the rising in POG has come on very little volume. Where the falls are on big volume. Whose slipping out the back door??




I posted this yesterday *before* the meltdown. With this chart


----------



## Kauri

Trembling Hand said:


> I posted this yesterday *before* the meltdown. With this chart




before the meltdown from $1035 to $975 or before the meltdown from $975 to $940....   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Looking at a dead cat on NCM at the moment. Off 11%, could have been overdone.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> before the meltdown from $1035 to $975 or before the meltdown from $975 to $940....
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Actually If you want a specific time Kauri at 12:08am Tuesday morning I posted on my blog this



> In times like this when not only is the **** hitting the fan but knocking it right off the table, things that once were safe become dangerous. As the nasty reversal in Gold has just illustrated.





Price then about $1010


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> so I expect it to consolidate sideways for 3 or 4 weeks from here.




I tend to agree. I was hoping for an extended consolidation instead of a sharp drop like this, but this will be similar to the Nov 2007 to near end of 2007 consolidation/correction except with far more volatity. 

The long term fundamentals are still obviously intact for now, unless Benchopper decide to increase interest rate by several percent and let the banks fail. 

Silver is getting seriously hammered too, but then it was far more overbrought than gold.


----------



## CamKawa

*Market Commentary*​

*Gold *
opened at 983.00/984.00 in New York. The metal tumbled as
funds sold, triggering stops and pushing gold lower until it found support
at 957.00. This level was not sustained as dealers continued to
dump gold in response to falling oil prices and a strengthening USD,
pressuring it to a low of 939.50/940.50. Gold recovered marginally
and traded sideways late in the session, closing at 945.00/946.00.​​*Silver *​*
*​*
*opened at 1972.00/1977.00 and quickly weakened on dealer
selling. Support was established at 1845.00, but the subsequent rebound
was short-lived and silver eventually hit a session low of
1820.00/1825.00. The metal traded in a narrow range over the remainder
of the session, finally settling at 1839.00/1844.00.​​*Technical Commentary*
*Gold *​
​
fell by more than 4% today – its largest decline since November
(bringing the 2-day loss to more than 6%). Although equities weakened,
we are reluctant to single out this factor for what happened to
gold as the two did not move in tandem during the session, and gold
fell yesterday despite soaring equities. USD strength likely played a
role, although EUR/USD did not move into negative territory until rather
late in the session. Gold and other commodities have soared in part
because of growing concerns over US inflation. However, recent encouraging
developments in this regard – benign US core CPI, a drop in
market inflation break-even rates and yesterday’s dissents by 2 FOMC
officials – could be scaring gold bulls and motivating some profit taking.
We remain bullish on a medium-term basis given our concerns
regarding the US economy and financial markets, but the near-term
technical picture has become darker. The break of support at 957.00
was bearish, and gold also violated figure/trend line support of 950.00.​​*Silver’s *​*
*​*
*7.0% drop today made the decline in gold look modest by
comparison. Today’s close was well below trend line support just underneath
19.00 and was therefore bearish. The next level of support
lies at 17.75. Silver’s MACD reached a new high in tandem with the
price earlier this month, but has since fallen well through the signal line
– another bearish signal. The recent out-performance by gold has
lifted the gold/silver ratio back above 51.0.

source: http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf​​


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> I tend to agree. I was hoping for an extended consolidation instead of a sharp drop like this, but this will be similar to the Nov 2007 to near end of 2007 consolidation/correction except with far more volatity.
> 
> The long term fundamentals are still obviously intact for now, unless Benchopper decide to increase interest rate by several percent and let the banks fail.
> 
> Silver is getting seriously hammered too, but then it was far more overbrought than gold.




Dropping further, now at US$918, I think buyers will come back at this price and it will recover faster than I earlier anticipated.

I think oversold now.   But we will see what pans out.  A factor I have not considred before is the dirivative/carry trade thingo that may be making big players run for cash.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Dropping further, now at US$918, I think buyers will come back at this price and it will recover faster than I earlier anticipated.
> 
> I think oversold now. But we will see what pans out. A factor I have not considred before is the dirivative/carry trade thingo that may be making big players run for cash.




There goes my analysis , although, a short covering rally of equal force can't be ruled out either?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> There goes my analysis , although, a short covering rally of equal force can't be ruled out either?




Surprising to see such a move on so little volume. Bulls hardly put in a bid!

Would be interesting to see if that's a short term low?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Surprising to see such a move on so little volume. Bulls hardly put in a bid!
> 
> Would be interesting to see if that's a short term low?




Maybe back in now, it has recovered $12 since the low an hour ago.

Cheers explod


----------



## CamKawa

I hope it's found some support now.

My POG thresh hold is as follows

1000 - 980 soft drink
979 - 940 light beer
939 - 920 full strength beer 
919 - 900 single shot of sprits
899 - 800 double shot of sprits
799 -700 prescription drugs
699 - hard drugs


----------



## ithatheekret

Postion shuffling of allocations and call requirements have added to the correction , volatility still strong , the first $100 swing on the boards .

You folks are happy ...... aren't you ?

You will note every commodity , soft and hard got hit . 

An unwinding of positions ?????

For myself this is an opportunity to buy again . I have a range of 887 -912 as possible low areas and I believe that would still have the metal in a bullish trend . The annoying point is the falls in the AUD which will add to the cost of purchases , thanks Kev.

If I we're to believe the US was not in a recession and quite possibly worse , I would be selling ever ounce of physical we owned .

But what we are seeing is a needed rush for cash by funds , banks etc. , this is a textbook preservation move and it has presented an opportunity .


----------



## Young Gun

Went long at $936 US an ounce, with a stop loss just under $900. I belive this is just a minor correction and will form a base for later run. I dont think that the fundmentals have changed and as long a there is volatility in world markets gold will continue an uptrend.


----------



## kransky

bought my first gold future last night at about 958.. out at 950

i would love to be able to go long long from below 900 with the cr@p that will likely be hitting the fan in the coming months...


----------



## chops_a_must

The problem is, to trade gold, you have to be leveraged. And right across the board, leverage has distorted the value of just about everything.

Leverage is currently being unwound. Gold to a certain extent will have to come down with it...



			
				TH said:
			
		

> Surprising to see such a move on so little volume. Bulls hardly put in a bid!
> 
> Would be interesting to see if that's a short term low?




Why don't you take these position trades more often? 

Are you able to tell me, from experience, when a contract tanks on expiry... what it actually does to the trend? Just from unverifiable observation from me, it seems to do irreparable damage to the existing trend... Has that been your experience?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

An interesting excersise in human emotion - can you spot the period of panic selling and the period of steady accumulation from the lows in the chart? Those who were long time set in the trend have been willing to wait for the weak hands to jetison and stand ready to top up again.

That's for todays action anyway - wait and see how deep the pockets of the accumulators are or whether the central banks will use their bottomless pit money printing machines to time another tank event??? All very sus is the timing of things this week - 25 pt interest rate 'emergency' cut, then a 75 pt one. As if they didn't know what the plan would be - they are not complete idiots - or are they?! Beware the power of the Fed, they still control _it_!


----------



## Kauri

an interesting exercise... for those who think that the $US Index may tentatively have bottomed..... or not....

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> an interesting exercise... for those who think that the $US Index may tentatively have bottomed..... or not....
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




to early to call that Kauri...

If the gold bugs thoiught it would just keep rolling with no serious hic ups, well then they had gold in there ears!

Explod thoughts on this?

hell of a short missed o well!


----------



## GreatPig

Uncle Festivus said:


> can you spot the period of panic selling and the period of steady accumulation from the lows in the chart?



I hope they didn't accumulate too much.

Looks like more panic selling...

GP


----------



## explod

GreatPig said:


> I hope they didn't accumulate too much.
> 
> Looks like more panic selling...
> 
> GP




As the bull gains momentum it has been well documented that we need to prepare ourselves for increasing volatility.  It is said, you climb a wall of worry.  It is at these times that I go back to the big picture, and first that is the chart.   The gold trend is clear enough and a correction to the mid US$750 would be required to break that.      A very big correction is well overdue and it is hard to credit that we were at US$700 an ounce a mere 8 months ago.  Against the other retracements that have occurred in this gold bull we could expect to go down to around US$850 and on the past 12 hours or so we are well on the way.

However in my observations it has been the US$ index as the indicator.  The reason is simple, US$ are not backed by productivity, only debt and so much of it that the Fed must let its value fall to lessen the IOU to the productive nations from whom they buy their goods.   They are heading for default, the sheeple dont' know it yet but the trading nations do.

I think that the gold bull is well and truly intact and the current correction was probably overdue.   I do not believe the period of consolidation will play out as long as the one in 06/07 and that commensurate with this move down the next upleg when it comes will be the one to be on.

I am fully loaded in my holdings.    From my position I cannot afford to miss the train so for that reason am happy with my lot.  Having been with this trend for some years my position is probably different to others.

Just from my gut, I think this move down may have more to it but will be short lived.    Those who can trade the wipsaw I take my hat of to, but not for this old fellar.


----------



## refined silver

chops_a_must said:


> I guess the important decision to be made with gold, and the market can't make up its mind, is whether we are inflating or deflating. Your stag theory versus dhukka's deflation.
> 
> Is it even possible to have both at the same time within intrinsically linked economies? And if not/ if so, what does that mean for gold?




Hi Chops,

Yes you can have both inflation and deflation at the same time in the same economy (which we WILL have) and both are good for gold.

In the 70s there was huge inflation of commodities -hard and soft/oil/gold etc, at the same time the Dow was range bound from '66-'82, but given the inflation rate the stocks lost approx 75% in real terms over the time period. 

Sad to say its like a giant vice. Debt-deflation - in assets build on debt especially housing, but also paper assets like bonds and many stocks reliant on economic growth. Inflation in food, petrol, commods, etc.

Gold benefits from both sides - in the rush from paper and debt asset deflation and from the commodity inflation - similar to the 70s.


----------



## cuttlefish

To me the main inflationary indicator is wage inflation as this is the biggest devaluer of cash and drives inflation in other areas. It also has the biggest impact on business and puts the 'worker' at the forefront.  From the housing front this translates into rental increases and possibly house prices rising as well - but in real terms they may be falling.  In an inflationary environment growing the cash value of your investments isn't enough - they have to grow faster than cash devalues.  (i.e. growth in 'real' terms is whats important).

On the gold front, I'm no technician but see support in the 870-920 sort of range and think it could consolidate around here for a while (without another iceberg).


----------



## cuttlefish

I can even convince myself on the 5yr chart lol.  (whats it called when you chart what you want to see).


----------



## Kauri

Gold extended losses below $910 with forecasts now for the yellow metal to fall to $850 or even below $700. In addition, crude oil has lost $3 this morning, adding to the commodity bail out. There is ongoing talk of margin calls, similar to yesterday and new talk that hedge funds are reducing their leverage, adding to the commodity sell-off and also fuelling AUD/JPY selling as well. Further pressure is a concern too with the quadruple witching today in the futures that could add to the sell-off.

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

Interesting to see gold open in New York and not plummet..........yet..........


----------



## refined silver

cuttlefish said:


> To me the main inflationary indicator is wage inflation as this is the biggest devaluer of cash and drives inflation in other areas.




Sadly, again for the average worker this is not going to happen. China/India etc will cap wages in western countries for decades to come. There might be wage increases but it will be under the true ratye of inflation. There are short-term exceptions to this of course where we have labour shortages in trades etc but these will be short-term not long term.

Traditional Keynesian economics says wages drive inflation but that is a load of crock, inflation comes from one thing and one thing only and that is an increase in the money supply faster than an increase in economic output. Since all Central Banks have the spiggots open full and will do for a long time to come, monetising bankrupt OTC derivatives.


----------



## cuttlefish

I just saw the comsec market report - its always amusing - people are selling down commodities and stocks to go to safe assets like .... wait for it ... government bonds lol lol lol.   Get yer NINJA bonds here, we'll throw in some falling knives.


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> Gold extended losses below $910 with forecasts now for the yellow metal to fall to $850 or even below $700. In addition, crude oil has lost $3 this morning, adding to the commodity bail out. There is ongoing talk of margin calls, similar to yesterday and new talk that hedge funds are reducing their leverage, adding to the commodity sell-off and also fuelling AUD/JPY selling as well. Further pressure is a concern too with the quadruple witching today in the futures that could add to the sell-off.
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Since this sell-off is totally manipulated -part of the spin that all is ok. 3/4 point rate cut, stocks up 400, gold down, yet even that fell apart 2 days later, I can't see it lasting that long. 

Admittedly hedge funds are getting margin calls, while the commercial shorts who sell gold down never do, since they operate on behalf of the Fed and as such never have to cover but just keep adding shorts. However countries and SWF with trillions who want to diversify away from the dollar will provide more than buying to make up for any hedge funds bailing out. 

JMHO


----------



## cuttlefish

refined silver said:


> Sadly, again for the average worker this is not going to happen. China/India etc will cap wages in western countries for decades to come. There might be wage increases but it will be under the true ratye of inflation. There are short-term exceptions to this of course where we have labour shortages in trades etc but these will be short-term not long term.
> 
> Traditional Keynesian economics says wages drive inflation but that is a load of crock, inflation comes from one thing and one thing only and that is an increase in the money supply faster than an increase in economic output. Since all Central Banks have the spiggots open full and will do for a long time to come, monetising bankrupt OTC derivatives.




good comments - I'll have to digest them, especially in the context of a regulated international labour market.  In a country like Australia where there appears currently to be a labour shortage I could see labour shortages driving real wage growth and affecting business profitability and capacity in the short term, in the longer term not necessarily so. 

The Chindian labourers will possibly experience a level of real growth as their currencies climb in relation to the USD and because part of their economic growth is driven by an increase in affluence as a result of internal productivity but I haven't really thought that through yet. 

The US government giving out money for debt backed by questionable productivity is likely to devalue their currency and a devalued currency one would think would result in an inflationary impact though deflation still isn't out of the question either (is it?).  

Either way, a devaluing USD will cause rises  (in USD terms) for USD priced commodities and also a flight away from USD based assets, and given other world currencies are effectively USD based assets (due to the USD being the world reserve currency) then a flight away from all currencies seems likely to safer assets (like commodiites, oil, gold  etc.(even property at some point? - I'd rather hold unencumbered property than cash in an inflationary environment.).


----------



## rederob

Kauri said:


> Gold extended losses below $910 with forecasts now for the yellow metal to fall to $850 or even below $700. In addition, crude oil has lost $3 this morning, adding to the commodity bail out. There is ongoing talk of margin calls, similar to yesterday and new talk that hedge funds are reducing their leverage, adding to the commodity sell-off and also fuelling AUD/JPY selling as well. Further pressure is a concern too with the quadruple witching today in the futures that could add to the sell-off.
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



Gold's retrace on profit taking was an ominous sign that led forecasters to believe $1500 was in the offing, pushing aside the next hurdles at $1100, $1200 etc,
In addition, crude oil strategists saw a need for the overbought market to take a well earned breather before its next upleg.
Talk of short covering rallies abound, with speculators regularly being suckered in on Bernanke's spin.
Funds, desperate to park their money on things physical are are re-entering commodities and going long.
Money watchers regard the skippy as oversold and undervalued, suggesting parity with the greenback well before year's end.
The catalyst for strong rebounds occurs after multiple witchings burn losers stakes and sees the smart money return.
Three cheers....


----------



## CamKawa

Just got up out of bed. I couldn't fall asleep with the thought of the POG dropping to back to somewhere in the 800's. Thankfully my fears have not been realized. The fall in the AUD to 90 cents has helped offset the fall in the POG with it being around AUD 1026 so at least I've still got my head above water.

1033 only a few days ago to 914 only a few hours ago, what a ride. Still it looks like it's kinda maybe starting to rally a bit now, so here's a chart to smile at.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> I can even convince myself on the 5yr chart lol.  (whats it called when you chart what you want to see).




As long as what you see can be seen by others, and you have me convinced.

Our happy Easter close is $920   A look at the attached chart shows the classic resistance area last month is now support.   The gold bull has conformed to the norm so we can rest easy for the holiday.


----------



## CamKawa

*Market Commentary*​

*Gold *
opened at 918.50/919.50 in New York and drifted downward on
light trading during the early morning reaching a low of 914.00/915.00. It
recovered from the lows, hitting a high of 928.50/929.50, on the back of
retracing oil prices. The metal retreated marginally from the highs as funds
took further profits. It traded sideways during the tail end of the session to
finally close at 919.50/920.50.​​*Silver *​*
*​*
*opened at 1744.00/1748.00 and funds sold the metal early on
driving it down to support near 1700.00. It climbed from this level as oil
prices recovered and finding resistance around 1740.00. However this
level was short lived as dealers took profits. Heavy fund selling just before
the close caused silver to slump to a low of 1678.00/1682.00. It recovered
marginally from the lows to finally settle at 1684.00/1689.00.​​*Technical Commentary*
*Gold *​
​
- On the back of massive de-leveraging in the financial markets, gold
has had a massive drop lower and is now testing a break below its upward
trend line (902.15). The downward pressure over the last three days has
been particularly intense, but today’s candle, though still bearish, at least
did not close on its low, which provides some hope that the violent down
move might be growing tired. The keys to watch ahead are the trading
pattern that emerges on Monday. Follow through of this week’s move
would be very concerning and would most likely entail a break of the trend
line. This would foreshadow near-term downside. However, we are suspicious
that the bears could well grow tired on Monday and gold could be in
for a few days of rest. Support lies at the trend line of 902.15, followed by
the 100-day moving average of 885.00. There are several resistance points
between here and the year’s high (1032.50) including 927.30 followed by
992.75.​​*Silver *​*
*​*
*has had a miserable week, losing an eye-popping 17% over the last
five sessions. It is difficult to find any shred of bullishness in the charts.
Considering the speed of the move there could well be a short period of
consolidation ahead. Monday’s trading pattern will prove important as
further follow through from today’s losses would foreshadow downside
even from here. Support lies at congestion and the 100-day moving average
of 16.25, while resistance comes in at today’s open of 17.44/48.​ 
Source : http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf​​


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> Since this sell-off is totally manipulated -part of the spin that all is ok. 3/4 point rate cut, stocks up 400, gold down, yet even that fell apart 2 days later, I can't see it lasting that long.
> 
> Admittedly hedge funds are getting margin calls, while the commercial shorts who sell gold down never do, since they operate on behalf of the Fed and as such never have to cover but just keep adding shorts. However countries and SWF with trillions who want to diversify away from the dollar will provide more than buying to make up for any hedge funds bailing out.
> 
> JMHO




The Dow up, the US$ dollar up, Oil and the Hui down.    Gold headline on Kitco, gold has its biggest weekly drop since 1990.

We's all saved.    Ben and co. done a good job and now deserve a happy easter.   Care that with the excitement the bunny don't get some virus.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> The Dow up, the US$ dollar up, Oil and the Hui down. Gold headline on Kitco, gold has its biggest weekly drop since 1990.
> 
> We's all saved. Ben and co. done a good job and now deserve a happy easter. Care that with the excitement the bunny don't get some virus.





  aside from the threat of intervention, the massive shift into the USD from central banks, as reflected in Fed custody holding data, continues to be a factor behind the USD rebound. Fed custody holdings for the week of March 19 have risen $11.492 bln or over $2 bln per trading day to take custody holdings to fresh record highs of $2.173 tln. Fed custody holdings have now risen by $115 bln since the week of January 9th just before the shift back to the USD became quite evident and aggressive. Average holdings rose $17.282 bln to $2.168 tln.  
  and if Intervention was to occur, what beeter day than Good Friday??? I hear that .....ooops... sorry, unfounded rumours... ... loose lips sink banks...  ...

 and...   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f01997e4-f677-11dc-bda1-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 
  Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## cuttlefish

explod said:


> As long as what you see can be seen by others, and you have me convinced.
> 
> Our happy Easter close is $920   A look at the attached chart shows the classic resistance area last month is now support.   The gold bull has conformed to the norm so we can rest easy for the holiday.





One thing I'm starting to see is bankable value creeping into some of the mid-cap near term/new producers at current gold prices.  If gold stays out consolidating in the wilderness for a few weeks or months (and gold stocks continue to drift as well) then there'll be an ongoing wealth transfer. At the same time this value discrepency in the middle end will increase (and even the larger end if, for example, LGL keeps falling whilst bedding down production increases and the EQI merger).  A stretch of consolidation in the $850/$950 level will provide a good base for a sustained rise in POG and that would combine with a time when the value in the sector is already obvious as profit/cashflow reporting starts to expose itself, allowing the magnifying effect of rises in POG to be transferred through to the gold stock sector as well.   (yeah just one of a million possible future outcomes).

Interestingly, and in line with a lot of comments made on this thread prior to it occurring, the move through $1000 got hit back very hard and very publicly.  A question in my mind is how much knowledge the Fed actually does have of the extent and locations of the credit problems - i.e. are they working to a proactive plan to manage this unwinding or are they being genuinely reactive.   e.g. Bear Sterns - to me it would seem almost bizarre that they weren't aware of a problem with Bear well prior to the event - but if they were aware, why have the Sunday meeting and creating an impression of such a reactive situation?  If they're being proactive and are aware of the other lurking problems (or a lack thereof) then they can continue to manage this in a way that won't set off the alarm bells.  But if they are not aware then at any time there could be a bolt from the blue that sets the USD into tailspin.

The USD rallying in response to the Bear incident and the injection of an additional wad of funding seems completely counter intuitive to me.  Would you buy a currency that is getting polluted by the day with more bad debt?  Only if you thought/knew it was genuinely coming to an end.  But even then  (as Wayne points out) you're only investing now in a currency backed by a quite likely declining/recessionary economy. On that basis I doubt that a lot of the USD buying is due to new long positions being created but more likely a result of forced buying as part of unwinding of leveraged situations and other covering sorts of activities.  I mean, who in their right mind would be opening new long positions in US bonds right now for example?  Or maybe I'm reading this all wrongly.

Well that turned into a bit of a ramble ... its raining thats my excuse.


----------



## Miner

explod said:


> As long as what you see can be seen by others, and you have me convinced.
> 
> Our happy Easter close is $920   A look at the attached chart shows the classic resistance area last month is now support.   The gold bull has conformed to the norm so we can rest easy for the holiday.




Very frightening no doubt but also window of opportunities as well if gold drops down to very low value, 
Some excerpts 
_Alan Greenspan says we are facing the worst economic crisis since World War II.

Treasury Secretary Paulson admits the U.S. economy is sinking rapidly.

And when he tore up the Fed's half-century rule book in order to bail out Bear Stearns this week, Fed Chairman Bernanke himself has implicitly admitted that Wall Street is on the verge of a financial meltdown._ 

Gold Falls Over $100 an Ounce in Two Days
By Luke Burgess | Thursday, March 20th, 2008


Gold is getting murdered. It's down over $100 from the record high set on Monday of $1033.90 an ounce. Gold for April delivery was last seen trading at $912.30 an ounce.



Prices are choking down this week because of strengthening in the US dollar following the US Federal Reserve key interest rate cut on Tuesday. The value hike in the greenback had those playing the recent upward momentum in gold, including the hedge funds, selling the sunshine metal to buy back into equities.

This pullback has had a significant downward effect on mineral stocks across the board. For the week, losses from major mineral companies include:

GoldCorp (TSX: G, NYSE: GG), down 13.8%
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), down 12.6%
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX, TSX: ABX), down 20.9%

*Luke Burgess in his Gold World gazette has further stated *
Despite the ugly losses we've seen this week we've seen in our favorite metal, the macroeconomic fundamentals of higher gold and precious metal prices still exist. The US dollar will continue its downward spiral as energy prices rise and credit markets remain weak. Meanwhile most precious metal markets are expected to have supply deficits because of mining problems in South Africa and increased investor demand.

So even if we see more losses in gold in the coming days, rest assured that a tiny uptick in the dollar isn't going to have much of a long-term downside influence on the current gold bull market.

I 
am not a chartist but wondering what could be the real reason for such a big fall out for Gold when every thing else is falling down ? 
Where the so called wealth creation is going ? 
What our brilliant charts are now stating ? Charts only are good so long historical data are good. So in this instance all decisions made by chart have been failed as a force
 majeure - God's hand.


----------



## Sean K

It's just amazing how sentiment turns in the finacial markets. A couple of days ago it was financial armageddon and everyone was cashing in their piggy banks to buy gold. Then, because of 25 basic points, everyone is into financials, we've found a bottom, and gold is going down 200 bucks. LOL

Really, not much has changed in the past few months.


----------



## josjes

kennas said:


> It's just amazing how sentiment turns in the finacial markets. A couple of days ago it was financial armageddon and everyone was cashing in their piggy banks to buy gold. Then, because of 25 basic points, everyone is into financials, we've found a bottom, and gold is going down 200 bucks. LOL
> 
> Really, not much has changed in the past few months.




And look who's been hurt most. The mainstream public, the mum and dad. Those people sold their CBA, NAB, MQG at $38, $27, $45  and bought gold at more than $960. And in a few weeks time, they will be staring in despair, seeing the bank shares up by 10-15% and gold down sub $850. 

I am not saying that banks will outperform gold next year or in 2-3 years time.

But this is a hard and painful lesson to learn when you try to make big changes to your portfolio in reaction to a week or two of mainstream news. 

For me in buying gold I hope I am buying a little something what will go up if there is an external event that crushes the market and to preserve the buying power of my money. I researched gold and I believe in the rationale of it and has a place in diversified portfolio allocation. I set a target of 25% in my portfolio. But I didn't buy it in one go. I bought gold when it was U$790-$810 as my initial purchase, but I baulked when it shoot up parabolic move to above $900. I will certainly add more to my position when it moves back sub $850 after a few weeks consolidation. 

A true believer/investor of the gold story should have a buy and hold strategy and not be swayed by the euphoria and doom and gloom. Buy on the dip when gold has consolidated at least 4 weeks. Add positions in 3 to 4 moves at least, No matter where gold is today or where it was yesterday, sit back and just enjoy the ride for the next 2-3 years.


----------



## explod

josjes said:


> And look who's been hurt most. The mainstream public, the mum and dad. Those people sold their CBA, NAB, MQG at $38, $27, $45  and bought gold at more than $960. And in a few weeks time, they will be staring in despair, seeing the bank shares up by 10-15% and gold down sub $850.
> 
> I am not saying that banks will outperform gold next year or in 2-3 years time.
> 
> But this is a hard and painful lesson to learn when you try to make big changes to your portfolio in reaction to a week or two of mainstream news.
> 
> For me in buying gold I hope I am buying a little something what will go up if there is an external event that crushes the market and to preserve the buying power of my money. I researched gold and I believe in the rationale of it and has a place in diversified portfolio allocation. I set a target of 25% in my portfolio. But I didn't buy it in one go. I bought gold when it was U$790-$810 as my initial purchase, but I baulked when it shoot up parabolic move to above $900. I will certainly add more to my position when it moves back sub $850 after a few weeks consolidation.
> 
> A true believer/investor of the gold story should have a buy and hold strategy and not be swayed by the euphoria and doom and gloom. Buy on the dip when gold has consolidated at least 4 weeks. Add positions in 3 to 4 moves at least, No matter where gold is today or where it was yesterday, sit back and just enjoy the ride for the next 2-3 years.




I like what you say.  My view is to not worry too mcuh about peaks and dips.  Like you have, just get on board and enjoy the ride.  Yeh the banks have followed Wall Street, the typical mum and dad investor in financials is following the advice of advisers who are most often working out of the banks so are lambs to the slaughter.

From reports coming out of Wall Street we are in for a very bumnpy ride and unless you are very savvy and experienced, be out altogether or, in my case, holding my gold/silver positions and doing other things for awhile.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> It's just amazing how sentiment turns in the finacial markets. A couple of days ago it was financial armageddon and everyone was cashing in their piggy banks to buy gold. Then, because of 25 basic points, everyone is into financials, we've found a bottom, and gold is going down 200 bucks. LOL
> 
> Really, not much has changed in the past few months.




  The more things change the more they stay the same. . .  

Incidentally, Tokyo, the heathens..    are trading today...
Collapses in commodity markets overnight look to have influenced trade on TOCOM with both gold and platinum falling by their daily limits after their respective opens. February "09 gold fell Y150/*gm,* its daily limit, to Y3017. February "09 platinum plunged Y300/*gm*, its limit, to Y5745.

As for charts, on the *daily* an ominous hammer type formation formed on 17th-18th I think..(posted in this thread as Maxwells silver hammer)... and on the *hourlies* an EA (consisting of de-constructed and then re-constructed modded vindicators) I am working on and trading manually for the moment had, and has kept me short, for a goodly part of this decline..  

Cheers
........Kauri
Where to from here???? I have no idea, but my EA to be will let me know when to change, I thunk...


----------



## kransky

from what i have read, hedge funds are selling gold not to put $ into equities but to get more cash so they can stay afloat.

Seems they are letting gold rise on low volume, then selling it down on bigger volume. 

Rising during Sydney's trading time and early in NY then falling mid/late NY.

????


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I personally think the short to medium trend has changed. this drop is telling you something. next rally will determine a lot. A lower high with a break of support, well look out 700 is a possibility. This really reminds me of may 05 now. is it a bull market for sure. but that means very little if u got in at 850-900+ plus. this anit share investing., that's if u have a margin and not physical. 

I am looking at selling the next rally.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> I personally think the short to medium trend has changed. this drop is telling you something. next rally will determine a lot. A lower high with a break of support, well look out 700 is a possibility. This really reminds me of may 05 now. is it a bull market for sure. but that means very little if u got in at 850-900+ plus. this anit share investing., that's if u have a margin and not physical.
> 
> I am looking at selling the next rally.




Have been mulling the drop, all that has been posted here is fertile stuff.  Has formed the view that the sell off could continue longer.  The prime support area being US$850

Have been reading an old text published 1980 of the top traders around Wall Street in the 70's.  Broker manipulation by feeding the press was rife.  

Ramping for long and short plays obviously just part of the business; and  nothing has changed.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Have been mulling the drop, all that has been posted here is fertile stuff.  Has formed the view that the sell off could continue longer.  The prime support area being US$850
> 
> Have been reading an old text published 1980 of the top traders around Wall Street in the 70's.  Broker manipulation by feeding the press was rife.
> 
> Ramping for long and short plays obviously just part of the business; and  nothing has changed.




Explod,

I can assure you I pay no attention to what comes out of the financial press. I get all my clues from the chart. if there is a imbalance of supply and demand the chart will show you. Some reports have to be followed as they make a market on release. But articles, no way they are always selling a hidden agenda to the heard. the next rally will answer some questions I have. 

Like i said long term bull for sure, but short to medium looking different. what just happened was a new behavioral change in the current market. profit taking turned to fear.

that's what got me thinking short, now we need confrimation.


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Have been mulling the drop, all that has been posted here is fertile stuff. Has formed the view that the sell off could continue longer. The prime support area being US$850



I'm going through the same soul searching feelings as you explod, I know how you feel. What we saw last week was gold's biggest weekly decline in 25 years so historically speaking I would think that the majority of the damage is behind us. I still think that the worst of the subprime crisis is in front of us and not behind us, making it more likely that the USD will put its dummy back in its mouth and keep falling.

Here are some words of wisdom.

*Dollar Bounces Back*

A resurgent greenback also weighed heavily on commodities prices. The dollar staged an impressive rally Thursday, though most analysts believe it only to be temporary. After hitting a series of record lows against the euro the dollar advanced to $1.5411 per euro. 

"It looked like the sky would fall, which is why we got up to those record levels Monday," Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers in Montreal, told *CNN*. "But when the dollar started a bit of a gain [yesterday], people pulled the trigger across the commodity board."

While the dollar came off its historic lows yesterday, few analysts believe the latest upward trend is the beginning of serious recovery. More likely is the possibility that currency traders priced in a larger cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed slashed the benchmark Federal Funds rate by 0.75% Tuesday, but many analysts had anticipated a full-point reduction. 

"The smaller-than-expected Fed Funds rate cut and the emphasis on inflation risk in the Federal Open Market Committee statement have effected a reassessment of the further outlook for U.S. monetary policy," said analysts Dresdner Kleinwort, the corporate and investment banking unit of Germany’s Dresdner Bank AG. "As the market regards the potential for another rate cut as small, gold and other metals are under pressure."

Many analysts believe after a mild recovery, the dollar will continue its downward descent, perhaps falling as low as $1.60 per euro. 

"I would see this as a temporary [move] since we expect that the Fed will go on cutting. I don’t think we’ve seen the lows for the dollar and I don’t think we’ve seen the low for stock markets. It’s unlikely that this will be the bottoming out for risk aversion," Johan Javeus, FX strategist at SEB in Stockholm, told *Reuters*

source http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/03/21/commodities-fall-out-of-favor-as-the-dollar-strengthens/


----------



## Progster

*A Seller's Anecdote*

Hi to all!

I'm going to offer an anecdotal perspective on where Gold is headed, short-to-medium term, based on the old "magazine cover" wisdom.

I speak as one who has held some physical since the low $300's (awhile, I know!), and who sold it out North of $1k last Monday.

Was this "lucky"?  Well, in a certain sense, yes, getting such a local "top tick" always has some luck associated with it.  But, I wasn't rolling dice or throwing darts to come to my sale decision.  Instead, I was observing the world around me.

To wit:  last week, here in the USA, major mainstream TV news started running stories about "gold's new all-time high", "gold breaks $1000", and finally the kicker - "housewives holding Gold parties", getting their friends and acquaintances to bring in their jewelry to be sold off and melted down (with a little cut to the smart housewife).

When I saw that last one, I gave up all notions of Gold 3k, Gold 2k, or even Gold 1.2k (any time soon) and got on the phone the next day to lock in a sale.

Here's the psychology:  This last week was a Phase I bump up in supply from those who have not been paying attention so far and have now been wakened from their slumber.

Phase II will be a stampede increase in supply from all those who a) see their chance to sell long-term holdings above 1K fading in the rear-view, or b) bought the 1k breakout as dreamers (only a few years late!) and are holding a large loss literally overnight.

The downtrend will be accelerated by pros who just keep pulling their bids South as hard and as far as they can, for as long as the stampede of sellers continues.

For those who do believe in long term Gold 2k, 3k, etc., I would say "Wait - you will have lots of opportunity to buy at prices substantially below today's."

This is a classic case where simply watching the charts did not and does not tell the whole story.  That's one difference with commodities - they have a relationship with outside reality that tends to affect their price at extremes.

Anyway, that's my anecdote - for what it's worth.  Cheers!


----------



## metric

im not sure how this will affect things....

Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out"
(SOLD OUT!!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 19, 2008
You know me, I don't send out two emails in one day, so this must be important. Since my email earlier tonight, where I reported that 5-6 major silver dealers (Amark, Tulving, 2 in Vancouver, my local dealer, NWT Mint) are "out of inventory", 13 more reports came in, saying that the dealers were out of silver inventory. Some of these names are big names in the business, Scotia bank, the Perth Mint in Australia, CNI Numismatics in LA, APMEX says they have some items, but are looking to buy. 

If there are any coin dealers or bullion shops that have an inventory, in stock, of more than 100, 100 oz. bars, let me know, and I'll give you FREE Advertising within 24 hours in my next newsletter. 

Robert Mish reports that he has 100 x 100 oz. bars still, but he had 250 bars last week.
Mish International
Menlo Park
650-324-9110 

Now think: How can the silver price drop by nearly $2/oz., when all these reports come in saying that the dealers are sold out, or nearly out, of physical silver? This is the clearest evidence of paper short selling manipulation that I've ever seen since I started watching the silver market back in 1999, and I've seen a lot of evidence! 

Unfortunately, the COT reports only report through Tuesday. This Wednesday's action will not be revealed in the COT's until next Friday. 

The public switched and turned buyers after gold hit $1000/oz. The coin shops normally sell to the refineries, and this creates a large part of the ~250 million oz. of silver recycling each year that meets the deficit between ~650 million oz. mine supply, and ~1000 million oz. demanded by inventory. 

But now, this flow of silver just reversed. And if the refineries are not getting silver from the coin shops, industry will get squeezed, hard, and so will the major short sellers on the COMEX. 

This is crunch time. Panic time. 

The unedited reports follow (Names removed for privacy.)

=============== 

Coin shop report from St. Louis, MO. I shop at Missouri Coin and have purchased bulk 10oz bars (20 at a time) on several occasions. I went shopping yesterday and they only had 9 10oz bars available and the owner commented that he cannot find more anywhere. He was out of 10oz bars when I left... 

I ended up picking up a bag of quarters as well since they didn't have the bar stock I was looking for. 

A crunch is on. 

J in St. Louis
============= 

From: Ainslie Bullion Coy [mailto:info@ainsliebullion.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2008 10:53 AM
To: 'Linda Wagner'
Subject: RE: price 

Sorry, I can’t quote silver until the middle of next month. 

The supplier won’t quote until then 

Kind regards 

Geoff 


Ainslie Bullion Company
GPO Box 1870
Brisbane Qld 4001
Tel: +61 7 3221 0500
Fax: +61 7 3229 1895 

============= 

Jason, 

My coin dealer is in Bakersfield CA. Mike's Coin and Stamp. My wife and I went in on monday and bought 4 100 oz. bars. Said he had a good supply of those. I also wanted some smaller bars and I wiped him out. Only 160 oz total. He says he can't keep them in stock very long before someone comes in and empties his supply. He's having a hard time getting replacements. He's the largest dealer in the area and very trustworthy. We also bought gold. At least some people seem to be taking serious what's going on. 



H 

============= 

HI Jason:

CNI near the L.A. airport at www.golddealer.com is the dealer I have used....They were out of silver today also...

E 

(CNI is a major dealer --Jason) 

============= 

Jason, 

Just placed another order with Perth Mint, they are out of stock on everything, however there waiting period is no longer 6 months (Im guessing they received alot of complaints) its now 6-8 weeks. 

Just got off the phone with them, they have no bullion in stock, its all on backorder, the official excuse is that it takes along time to make the bars and everyone wants them, could be viiewed as a good thing knowing demand is high, but I personaly dont like waiting 6-8 weeks for delivery. 

I contacted several other dealers in Sydney, only 1 out of 5 has stock...... Everyone has back orders with PM which is the distributor. 

Regards,
S 

=============
APMEX reports, at apmex.com 

Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem.
. . . 

P.S. We are actively looking for new bullion inventory to purchase. If you have items that total $2,500 or more and are interested in selling, please call our trading offices at the number listed above. We are paying strong numbers for ALL Precious Metals! 

============= 

I want to tell you that your site is very helpfull and,i believe what you are doing,nice job in telling people about GOD money.I am a very smol investor, and i have in my posesion until now around 2000 ounces of silver bars,10 ounces and 50 ounces bars.Tuesday the 18. at scotia bank they did not have enouf silver.I wanted to buy but the vault was empty,they had only coins.And today is 19...19..This evil people work with numbers.They have dates for everything.19 is an important number for the ocult.All the best.GOD bless you and your family. 

============= 

Hello,
This past Monday I wired funds to purchase eleven 1,000 oz bullion bars from my dealer who I have purchased & sold sizable silver orders several times before. He called Monday afternoon and stated that none of his suppliers had any 1,000 ounce bars available, but not to worry, the next day they would probably have eleven bars to fill my order.

Tuesday, he called again, stating still none had bullion except one person had some, but he would only sell them at a ten cent premium over the dealer stated price or $1,100 more. I am a long term holder so I bought them just to have the silver in my depository possession.

By the way, my dealer is a high quality company and individual and he also stated he was flat covered over all day with transactions with people like myself buying silver. I also wonder with this condition, why the silver went down, and can't help to think about Ted Butlers assertion.

Cheers
FH 

============= 

Ordered 100 oz. from them early Jan. due to deliver this Friday. Way too long. My dealer in Arlington Texas is almost out of silver. Probably only has about 1000 oz. left. I will be taking some of that off his hands tomorrow.
Love your reports!
Have a great day
B 

============= 

mEDFORD ORE WAS OUT HAD A LINE WANTING TO PURCHASE 

============= 

Mr. Hommel,

I live in a small town of 16,000 In S. Illinois. I stopped by my local coin shop to pick up some Silver Eagles, and the cases were empty, except for numismatic value coins. He stated he had sold over 600+ Eagles in the last week and was waiting to receive more. I thought that to be a good indicator for the future direction of Silver. I also want to tip my hat to James Rawles for pointing me in your direction. Your e-mails are part of my recommended reading to my friends.

Thank you, RG 


"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin 

============= 

Jason,
I called the most consistent coin dealer in Memphis Monday. I like junk silver.
I could not buy a bag at any price. I was offered 5 100 once bars, period.
He stated that he hates ordering bags as the cost leaves him with indigestion.
Usually he is buying junk on a regular basis. At this time there seems to be
NO SELLERS.
Your old homie now in the Ozarks,
goatman 

============= 

Locally the dealers I've done business with are always in chronic tight supply and several of them recently couldn't fill a tiny $1,000 deal, let alone what I wanted to buy. I have bought hundreds of times but never more than 7461 ounces at a time. Got it from Bill Haynes in Phoenix. I was buying 90% when it was at 3.24x face and know it's still badly undervalued. I almost felt bad when a lady came in with bags of Franklins and she heard me tell the dealer I wanted them, her heart sunk, but it wasn't me that made her sell the gem BU coins. That's how quick the turnaround is. When investors go on waiting lists for hard metal, I believe it will cause the mining shares to finally zoom. We have several stupid billionaires in Dallas-Fort Worth and I wish they'd try to take a big position---it would benefit me! 

--CS 

============= 

Again, to get silver, make sure you go local, take cash, and get the actual bars, if they have any! At this point, it matters little which product, just get any silver that they have that is somewhat close to the spot price, rounds, bars, odd weight bars, anything. 

http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/ 

It was for the inevitable time like this that I diligently complied the names of people in the industry who have 100,000 oz. of silver. I have 5 names on my list, but one of those 5, CNI, is now reported to be out. I don't know about the other 4; I've heard no reports about them. See the list of large dealers at http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

Sincerely, 

Jason Hommel
www.silverstockreport.com
www.miningpedia.com


----------



## explod

Nick Radge said:


> I don't like to blow my trumpet but you guys keep slagging off charts without any basis of fact. Perhaps the problem is that you can't read the charts? I suggest there was a lot of evidence of a near term collapse on the charts. I am happy for any subscriber of mine to verify. I stated back on the *11th March* that commodities were close to collapse. I also stated exactly *WHY* this would occur.
> 
> I reiterated on *18th March* with Silver with this exact quote; " 'last one out turn off the lights'."
> 
> I suggested on *12th March* that Newcrest (NCM) had the ability to trade to $29.00.
> 
> I suggested on *13th March* that (Fortescue) FMG could trade to $5.00. That one was sent out publicly and it showed how to get short accordingly.
> 
> I suggested on the *5th March* that Centennial (CEY) could fall to $3.60 and shoed how subscribers could short the stock.
> 
> Perhaps its a case of reading charts correctly?




Good for you Nick and your business too, well done.

However I think you underestimate some of the good calls on this thread and the fact that it is learning by involvement.   It is good also to sign up to a service like yours and be walked through trading decisions but at the end of the day each individual to get the best in the long haul needs to fend for himself at some stage.


I could also go back to some of my posts, and particularly a week ago and point to cautionary signs.   

The correction was very well overdue and the area of support is showing itself to some degree now.  Having said that I think whilst it is here we could see a further pummelling and that too was discussed in the last day or so.

Anyway good on you but the old "told you so" up front does not do you justice.

Cheers explod


----------



## Real1ty

explod said:


> Good for you Nick and your business too, well done.
> 
> However I think you underestimate some of the good calls on this thread and the fact that it is learning by involvement.   It is good also to sign up to a service like yours and be walked through trading decisions but at the end of the day each individual to get the best in the long haul needs to fend for himself at some stage.
> 
> 
> I could also go back to some of my posts, and particularly a week ago and point to cautionary signs.
> 
> The correction was very well overdue and the area of support is showing itself to some degree now.  Having said that I think whilst it is here we could see a further pummelling and that too was discussed in the last day or so.
> 
> Anyway good on you but the old "told you so" up front does not do you justice.
> 
> Cheers explod




In defense of Nick, explod, he wasn't as much going down the "told you so line" but more so pointing out to those that had said the charts gave no warning.

It only goes to show that there are so many different ways to interpret things and no way is better than another way, IF it works for you.


----------



## explod

Real1ty said:


> In defense of Nick, explod, he wasn't as much going down the "told you so line" but more so pointing out to those that had said the charts gave no warning.
> 
> It only goes to show that there are so many different ways to interpret things and no way is better than another way, IF it works for you.




Of course the charts dont give a warning, (that is why we say "follow the trend until it ends" of "bends" and that is why we discuss fundamentals and every other angle we can get our hands on.   I gather Nick must do the same.

It is easy after the event to point out where one is right or wrong.  To be fair we need to look at and ballance the successes against all the ones that did not work. In that I am not saying that Nick got any wrong.  But there were stocks going in many directions over the last week, thats the volatility we expect at times like this.  If I was critical I am sorry for that but got the feeling he was being critical of some of our methods and just trying to ballance the scales. 

I think Nick, from all reports, is a good operator but there are many who are not and believe me the financial advice industry like us like a hole in the head.


----------



## Nick Radge

explod,
Please don't go and put words in my mouth. It was clearly stated that there was no way that charts could call this collapse. That is incorrect. I clearly did suggest it and it was done without hindsight.

However, I am not saying, as you incorrectly portend, that charts work all of the time. Do not suggest that of my post is about the merits of TA. It is about the incorrect assessment of this one event. 

I am the first to acknowledge that my analysis is far from correct at all times but being right/wrong is the least of a traders worries. But this is not the debate at hand.


----------



## GreatPig

Here's a chart of the ASX GOLD stock I posted on another forum back in January, along with the current chart.

I'm just amazed that I actually got something right for once. 

GP


----------



## Sean K

GreatPig said:


> Here's a chart of the ASX GOLD stock I posted on another forum back in January, along with the current chart.
> 
> I'm just amazed that I actually got something right for once.
> 
> GP



Gp, I can't see how anything in that post is right. 

And, to Nick, and anyone else posting projections, please enclose every other forecast you have made for the last 10 or so years so we know how well your projections go.

I am tired of seeing all the success, without the failures.... 

I think we'd learn just as much from a failed trade from the occasional good one. 



Of cource, we all love the education....


----------



## gfresh

While a lot of 'I told you so', and 'no you didn't' arguments are entertaining to read.. 

What are the thoughts on future direction ? While there seems to be a lot of de-leveraging by the major financials back into cash at the moment.. and there may be a little bit of general market calm for a few days. I imagine the short-term trend will continue.  However - if/when the next big crises comes I'd imagine there may be quite a rush back into gold as a tangible of last resort, as there has been every other time there has been a crisis in the last few months? Or now will people be a little bit more cautious shifting into gold?

The constant down-talk of gold over the last few days to me suggests that it's a nicely orchestrated move to sell it down, and soon enough there is going to be a 'surprise' about-turn. Just as the 'talk up' of gold happened right at the peak, surely the 'talk down' must mean there will be a reversal soon? 

The end game of deflation talk is rife out there right now in some readings. Will this mean gold will resume a march a long-term trend downwards again? Or will gold remain a 'flight to safety' and remain bouyant if such a scenario were to eventuate?


----------



## Sean K

gfresh said:


> What are the thoughts on future direction?



While the Fed keeps rates so low, or intends to lower them, then POG should stay high. Also, while POO looks to be steady, or worse case increasing, adding to inflation, POG should be supported. Also, while there is potential for geopolitical disaster and the realisation of, then comfort in alternative value out of USD is a must. Lowering interest rates, or holding below 5 ish only adds to gold's funnies.


----------



## grace

Having never owned physical gold before, I am interested to know where members store their gold and why.  I am located country QLD with no bullion sellers closeby!

We have cashed in some real estate (thinking the market should be close to its high) and have it sitting in the bank (well actually, a couple of banks to spread the risk). 

Thanks in advance!


----------



## MRC & Co

gfresh said:


> ..
> 
> What are the thoughts on future direction ?




Short-term future direction, I will not try to predict and I honestly dont beleive anybody can with any great degree of accuracy.

I am now all out of gold, based on my strategy, however, beleive long-term, high inflation and more economic uncertainty (globally) will surely push POG higher than the 1000s.

Until then, I wait for a change in momentum and a bottom of this commodity shake out!


----------



## GreatPig

kennas said:


> I can't see how anything in that post is right.



You can't see how the price of the GOLD stock got to A$110? The second chart shows it closing at $110.58 on 17th March.



> I am tired of seeing all the success, without the failures



I don't think anyone is saying they're right all the time. 

GP


----------



## GreatPig

grace said:


> I am located country QLD with no bullion sellers closeby!



You can buy allocated or unallocated gold from the Perth Mint using their depository service. In the case of allocated, they store it there and charge you a regular fee to do so.

The alternative is to have it physically delivered and store it yourself, perhaps in a bank's safety deposit boxes.

Or you could put it in a chest and bury it somewhere, drawing an obscure little map with an 'X' a number of paces to the right of a big tree that's hit by the first rays of the morning sun at the autumn equinox...

GP


----------



## refined silver

Nick Radge said:


> I don't like to blow my trumpet but you guys keep slagging off charts without any basis of fact. Perhaps the problem is that you can't read the charts? I suggest there was a lot of evidence of a near term collapse on the charts. I am happy for any subscriber of mine to verify. I stated back on the *11th March* that commodities were close to collapse. I also stated exactly *WHY* this would occur.
> 
> I reiterated on *18th March* with Silver with this exact quote; " 'last one out turn off the lights'."
> 
> I suggested on *12th March* that Newcrest (NCM) had the ability to trade to $29.00.
> 
> I suggested on *13th March* that (Fortescue) FMG could trade to $5.00. That one was sent out publicly and it showed how to get short accordingly.
> 
> I suggested on the *5th March* that Centennial (CEY) could fall to $3.60 and shoed how subscribers could short the stock.
> 
> Perhaps its a case of reading charts correctly?




Did you call the breakout from the 18month trading range in August 07, and was this your first top call in that rally since then? 

If you called any intermediate tops in the rally from $650 to $1030, like the shortterm top at $840, did you get you clients back in at the $780 bottom or did they miss the next $250 rally because you had them out? (And thats of course if you hadn't called a top much earlier.)

Another idiot newsletter writer was being touted here a while ago, as getting top calls correct, however on a closer examination he had been calling for a top continuously for the first 3 years of the gold bull market, and then of the 5 major gold rallies since 2000 he had missed 3 entirely calling tops all the way up, and the other two he had called a bottom at the bottom of an established sideways trading range, but called a top at the top of that trading range missing 70% of the rally. Hence his overall record was 0/100% for 3 rallies and 30/100 for the last two. Hardly inspiring!

Like Kennas said, if you called the rest correctly then show it, don't just post one call. Also show where in 2000/2001 you had the foresight to call for $1000 Gold or higher, there are a few that did and these are the ones that deserve listening to.

Finally if its a case of reading charts probably, one of the most basic rules is: "Buy fishing lines, sell rhino horns". The current Gold chart is a fishing line, and hence a buy. It may not be the very bottom, but it is at least time to start layering in buying.


----------



## CamKawa

gfresh said:


> What are the thoughts on future direction ?



Have a listen to this

Real Player http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.ram
Windows Media http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.asx

Source : http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html


----------



## Progster

> It was clearly stated that there was no way that charts could call this collapse.



Not by me.

Perhaps I posted in the middle of an ongong debate ...

Saying that charts "did not and do not tell the whole story" is merely saying that:


fundamentals exist

news exists

psychology exists

intervention exists

etc.
and no, all those things are not perfectly and efficiently reflected in the chart ahead of the move.  (Though they may be approximately reflected in the chart after the move.)

In any case, I use charts all the time - who doesn't?  My comment was not a shot at any person or method, nor did it have any relation to any previous discussion here.  It was written as a simple literal fact, and offered as a reminder that, sometimes at least, a good course of action can be arrived at based on synthesizing information other than price bars.

Best regards to all here - I'm sure I'll learn a great deal as I get the opportunity to read through these forums.  Personally, I think there might be easier triples from here than POG, but I'm certainly not saying it couldn't happen.   I would say though that if one wants to consider whether POG can triple from here or not, and in what timeframe, there's alot of non-chart considerations to that call, for sure!


----------



## Nick Radge

My response was to the post directed at charts not signaling this collapse. The charts did point to it. That's all I'm trying to state.


----------



## chops_a_must

Nick Radge said:


> My response was to the post directed at charts not signaling this collapse. The charts did point to it. That's all I'm trying to state.




I think all Kennas is trying to say is to post times/ a time where you have thought the charts have pointed to a collapse, but did not end up doing so.

Because if you don't, you'll get smart arses like myself, who will bring it up when you bring out only the successes, (if I subscribe to your service, which I probably will eventually) and will remind you of it when these post facto write ups come out...


----------



## kransky

CamKawa said:


> Have a listen to this
> 
> Real Player http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.ram
> Windows Media http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.asx
> 
> Source : http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html




thanks!


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> Gp, I can't see how anything in that post is right.
> 
> And, to Nick, and anyone else posting projections, please enclose every other forecast you have made for the last 10 or so years so we know how well your projections go.
> 
> ....




I thought this is a forum where we can exchange ideas not "Timers Digest"!!!!!!


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> Finally if its a case of reading charts probably, one of the most basic rules is: "Buy fishing lines, sell rhino horns". The current Gold chart is a fishing line, and hence a buy. It may not be the very bottom, but it is at least time to start layering in buying.




What is the basis for this bold prediction here? Furthermore by way of charts/fundementals anything you please to use, can you (and anybody else here)come up with a forecast for Gold for the next 1-2 years showing any charts, fundemental analysis showing why that is the most probable scenario.

This thread is called "Gold Price-Where is heading?", afterall.

I will start the ball rolling in the next few days, and hopefully instead of arguments we can have some logical discussion.

As far as Nick Radge goes, I can personally vouch via PM's he sent to me prior the breakout that in his own words he was  "Long To The Gunnels In Gold". 

Nick is an Elliottician and  he makes mistakes, but he also makes some stunning forecasts. 

I must say that in May 2006 I made forecast here that Gold would get pummelled(from a chart mind you) and that it would go into a bear market for 1-3 years. It actually trended sideways for 1.5 years after a huge initial selloff, and headed upward earlier than I expected, but at the time that decline was the best trade for the year for me.

In November last year I was calling for a high which I completely stuffed up and to explods credit he managed to make some good coin going largely unoticed at the time. 

Early this year in PM's to explod and rederob, I stated that in 2008 the US Dollar will be the biggest winner and I stand by that, while for most of the other asset classes it it will be a year of flameout. Mind you it has started later than I expected but will be interesting to see how it progresses.

Cheers


----------



## explod

A good direction Wavepicker (not meant to be a pun)

Gold will continue on it merry way up for years because fiat money is no longer backed by hard work or tangible assets.   The US dollar will continue to fall because the US debt is now beyond their ability to ever repay so they will continue to allow its devaluation to the horror of those holding it.  China is a big one.  I agree that there will be rallies and the upcoming presidential election will I am sure be a period of intense manipulation for viewing by the sheeple and a rise in the dollar shorter term could well be a part of that.  

So for the next few years the dollar will coninue its overall down trend.

Now for my Gold prediction, lets look at the 10 year chart.  It would have to drop to 700 (and it could) to fall out of the trend.  From 01 the curve up gets steeper, from mid 05 more so then from early 07 a further increase. If it holds and consolidates at the current level then the next up move will be steeper again.   It appears that due to some panick of big traders and margin calls on even big players gold was sold down and aided by the PPP to give a good showing to the sheeple of who is boss just in time for Easter.  Next week is a whole new time period so on that we will see.

In each of the main shifts gold has approximately doubled to each top and lets say the mean time of each level is two years (a bit of a crib) And that has shortened a bit as we have gone.

My prediction based on the exponential increase of gold so far and on many other fundamental issue is that in the next 18 months we will see a price top of US$1,800 and 12 months from there about $3,500  And there will be more, the currency problems (because the US dollar has been the world reserve) will be years sorting itself out.

Now I make no claim to be a guru, my outlook is based on the many books, opinions, articles, charts and discussions on this forum.   And most of all a newsletter I have subscribed to for about 4 years, "The Privateer" One of the best economists I know and it is produced in Australia and has a world wide audience.  In fact I found it through a web site in the US.  I have no other association so am not pushing its barrow, just a loyal reader.

So I take no other credit than to acknowledge my teachers.  And all of us may be wrong as we have been before.

I have learned to have the highest regard for Wavepicker and will give attention to his outlook above.

It will be interesting to see what pans out.


----------



## GreatPig

explod said:


> the exponential increase of gold so far



That chart is on a linear scale. Do you have a chart of it using log scale?

GP


----------



## explod

GreatPig said:


> That chart is on a linear scale. Do you have a chart of it using log scale?
> 
> GP





No, but realise it would make a different look.  However for my own purposes as a long term investor, charting packages are not worth while.    I do have metastock but will probably let it lapse as the need to scan a lot of stocks etc has fallen away as my strategies have altered.   Its very good stuff though.

I probably should get up with a simple package to post charts on here and on which I can place trend lines etc.   But I figure the simple approach is of more use to the newcomers anyway.


----------



## GreatPig

I've just been searching the Net and can't find a chart of historic gold prices using log scale either.

Sort-of related, I did find a rather interesting graph on Wikipedia showing the Dow/Gold ratio for the last 200 years (the associated Wikipedia article is here). While it has some rather large swings over the latter half of that time, it shows an overall uptrend, meaning the Dow index has been on average going up faster than gold. However, it last peaked in 2000, and has been falling since that time.

GP


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Gold chart in monthly,

96 -2008 as we can all see it's in a bull run. The current move is really over extended. A pull back to 850 is a good possibility. If this is a really strong bull market and there is a extreme imbalance of supply to demand we would expect to see the current selling get eaten up buy demand. So the next rally will be of real importance. Based on that monthly chart you would think a more selling and a base to form to set up the next leg. The current projection of the price advance is very vertical and as we saw last week unsustainable.

Fun times a coming


----------



## explod

This one shows the angle of the last blow off to 1980.  I think we have a way to go for this angle in the current run up.

Courtesy "The Privateer" newsletter


----------



## explod

And the old point and figure shows how solid the bull is

Again courtesy "The Privateer"


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I disagree Explod,

I think this pull back will head lower. That's the beauty of trading!


----------



## cuttlefish

Why would the USD rise right now?  The USD is the global reserve currency.  A falling USD means a rise in non USD assets.  I can't see any kind of rational argument for the USD suddenly doing a long term turnabout and rising.


This fall is largely a liquidity crunch imo - forced sales of good assets to fund bad bets elsewhere. Its pretty rare for a sharp fall to bounce back so its likely this means some time in the wilderness - but I still can't see how the US is going to restore faith in their currency any time soon - their treasuries are being exchanged for crud, they're funding the bailouts of crud.  This is malinvestment to the extreme and highly destabilising.   The sharper and more severe the USD fall starts to become over time the more urgent and panicky the rush to gold - and that rush if it starts will be large because of the reserve currency statusof the USD - the majority of government and banking and private assets, outside of property, are in some form of US currency based asset.

Someone needs to present an argument for a US economic recovery in the near term before I'd be bullish on the USD.


----------



## chops_a_must

Just a theory....

If all this leverage lent out, was in USD, then went into other currencies, it would have to come back when called in as USD, wouldn't it?


----------



## MRC & Co

As far as the USD, isnt the long-term driver simply PPP, historically?

So, with inflation soaring, the USD only has one way to go, right?

Until IRs finally rise to stamp out inflation (or the economy buckles), then we will get some IRP back, or the dramatic slowdown in demand will curb inflation and we will get a USD rise based on PPP.

Ceteris paribus of course 

Just a thought.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> I disagree Explod,
> 
> I think this pull back will head lower. That's the beauty of trading!




That's fine I respect your opinion, and I hve also pointed to the same posibility in the short term.  But what is your reasoning and the time frame.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> As far as the USD, isnt the long-term driver simply PPP, historically?
> 
> So, with inflation soaring, the USD only has one way to go, right?
> 
> Until IRs finally rise to stamp out inflation (or the economy buckles), then we will get some IRP back, or the dramatic slowdown in demand will curb inflation and we will get a USD rise based on PPP.
> 
> Ceteris paribus of course
> 
> Just a thought.




PPP can manipulate the thinking of the sheeple but they are not like the magic alchemist, they can't turn lead into gold.  The US$ is dead under the debt burden but more specifically because it is merely a paper promise on which they cannot deliver, the movement you see now is the vermin eating the carcase.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> PPP can manipulate the thinking of the sheeple but they are not like the magic alchemist, they can't turn lead into gold.  The US$ is dead under the debt burden but more specifically because it is merely a paper promise on which they cannot deliver, the movement you see now is the vermin eating the carcase.




No, I call what you refer to as the "PPP", the PPT.  

PPP to me, is Purchasing Power Parity.

As IRP is Interest Rate Parity.

The real long-term drivers of exchange rates (IRP the short-term driver, along with other factors as mentioned in this thread).  Otherwise, arbitrage would exist, no?


----------



## chops_a_must

Australia's trade deficit is pretty bad isn't it? And our currency is going, up/down?

Will the USD _dive_ into marriage with Miss Faye Complee?


----------



## GreatPig

Some interesting information about gold and currencies on this Galmarley website, particularly this page about historic currencies, and this page about safety issues when buying gold.

From the historic currencies page, the fates of early Athenian and Chinese currencies are noteworthy:



> Athenian money meanwhile had defined a pattern which was to repeat in other empires which were to follow:- dominance of trade; influx of gold to balance exports; public wealth; liberty; overconfidence; the discovery of loosely managed money as a stimulating solution to stagnation in an economy near its zenith; an ongoing success born of cultural momentum and monetary expansion which was to persist for decades before finally the emptiness of the monetary promise was exposed, leading to rapid national collapse.




And the Chinese currency in the late 13th century, during Mongol rule:



> Population and trade had greatly increased, but the emissions of paper notes were suffered to largely outrun both, and the inevitable consequence was depreciation. All the beneficial effects of a currency which is allowed to expand with a growth of population and trade were now turned into those evil effects that flow from a currency emitted in excess of such growth. These effects were not slow to develop themselves. Excessive and too rapid augmentation of the currency, resulted in the entire subversion of the old order of society. The best families in the empire were ruined, a new set of men came into the control of public affairs, and the country became the scene of internecine warfare and confusion.



Those situations are sounding rather familiar. I wonder if the end result will also be similar.

GP


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> No, I call what you refer to as the "PPP", the PPT.
> 
> PPP to me, is Purchasing Power Parity.
> 
> As IRP is Interest Rate Parity.
> 
> The real long-term drivers of exchange rates (IRP the short-term driver, along with other factors as mentioned in this thread).  Otherwise, arbitrage would exist, no?




Now that is a good point, on reflection I have had that wrong for some time and I see now the reason for some confusion.  Dislexia (and failing to proof read) has been a failing, always in too much of a hurry to deal with the next issue.

Thanks for picking me up.  Plunge Protection Team, dont know where I saw PPP in that?


----------



## Miner

GreatPig said:


> Some interesting information about gold and currencies on this Galmarley website, particularly this page about historic currencies, and this page about safety issues when buying gold.
> 
> From the historic currencies page, the fates of early Athenian and Chinese currencies are noteworthy:
> 
> 
> 
> And the Chinese currency in the late 13th century, during Mongol rule:
> 
> 
> Those situations are sounding rather familiar. I wonder if the end result will also be similar.
> 
> GP





Thanks for historical reference.
MY comments are under the era of 13th Century America was not born (thanks Columbus 1496) and Australia was probably in Astrological page, no internet was born, gold was the only currency, barter system existed, world trade was very different. so I would not be trying to prove something from that era to modern era. Correlation factors are not similar.

Regards


----------



## wavepicker

>Apocalypto< said:


> Gold chart in monthly,
> 
> 96 -2008 as we can all see it's in a bull run. The current move is really over extended. A pull back to 850 is a good possibility. If this is a really strong bull market and there is a extreme imbalance of supply to demand we would expect to see the current selling get eaten up buy demand. So the next rally will be of real importance. Based on that monthly chart you would think a more selling and a base to form to set up the next leg. The current projection of the price advance is very vertical and as we saw last week unsustainable.
> 
> Fun times a coming




Great chart Joseph. Three ascending trendlines and the fourth one which has been vertical price action is the blowoff. Typical Mclaren analysis, and according to this theory prices have a good chance of performing a "Mirror Image Foldback" to the rise of the last 3-4 months back to the "span" of the 1.5 year consolidation level.

I have posted a rather different chart here, but one which you are familiar with(this was a strategy put forward by  great cycles man JM Hurst in the late 60's). It's NOT precision timing, but in my opinion was much merit and pushes the point I am making with the USD.

First of all how high is too high and how low is too low a price level? How can this be measured. Fundemental analysis has many flaws with respect to this. JM Hurst, found that market motion comprised of cycles. He looked at the market for over 10 years to find out if it was purely random or whether forecasting was possible based on TA.

What he came up with was groundbreaking IMO.

-75% of market motion is a slow long term trend that was a result of fundemental/economic activity *OR* some exogeneous force. he could not tell which.

-2% of market motion was random


-23% was cyclical and displayed oscillatory type motion and could be predicted.

The chart I have posted(EURUSD) focuses on the 23%. Here we have 2 cycles in play, a long term cycle(outer envelope or cycle) and a shorter term cycle(inner envelope). These cycles are usually related to each other harmonically.
The smaller cycle "vibrates" or oscillates within the bounds of the outer cycle envelope. When prices reach or touch the outer envelope they have reached a "climax" or an extreme point whereby they will reverse and reach the extreme of the opposite part of the outer envelope. This analysis helped me (along with other)to pinpoint the peak in may 2006.

As can be seen in the case of the EURUSD, which has the greatest weighting of the USD Index, we have or about to reach an extreme point whereby prices should reverse back to the lower portion of the outer cycle or envelope. This just so happens to be the span of the last correction in 2005 of 1.36 to 1.16. Now this does not have to be now, but what is important here IMO is that the best of the momentum gains are over, and that prices if they do advance from here it will not be with any speed.

I should think that Gold would follow a similar path, but that is not to say that the bull is over in the very long term but rather a multi year pullback may need to happen first before it finds it's feet again and continues.

Cheers


----------



## GreatPig

Miner said:


> I would not be trying to prove something from that era to modern era. Correlation factors are not similar.



And 300 BC Athens was the same era as 1200 AD China?

GP


----------



## explod

In March of 2006 the US$ index was at 90.10, today it is at 72.80 and a look at the downtrend on the chart shows corrctions of no more than a point or two.   

As many have said, even on Wall Street, "it is different this time" and it certainly is.   The US$ index may totally change direction but as a trend follower I am not convinced till I see it.  So I will stay long gold.

The chart I am looking at is from INO.com and I am damned if I can get the thing to post from my pictures file.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> As many have said, even on Wall Street, "it is different this time" and it certainly is.   The US$ index may totally change direction but as a trend follower I am not convinced till I see it.  So I will stay long gold.




It's different this time!! I have heard that before:-

-the commodities bull of the 70's
-the crash of 87,
-the the dot com crash of 2000
- and I read it was said in the late 1920's

ALL OF THEM ENDED IN BUST

*There is nothing different this time*

_The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun._

Good Luck


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> It's different this time!! I have heard that before:-
> 
> -the commodities bull of the 70's
> -the crash of 87,
> -the the dot com crash of 2000
> - and I read it was said in the late 1920's
> 
> ALL OF THEM ENDED IN BUST
> 
> *There is nothing different this time*
> 
> _The that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun._
> 
> Good Luck




My quote was a pun, of course it is not different this time, just very much worse.   

When interviewed on Wall Street it is common when cornered to hear a respondent say, we have much more sophisticated mechanisms in place these days, it was different to back then.

I am not contesting you view Wavepicker, I am just presenting mine, it is just a view and I have no qualification to give any more than that.


----------



## noirua

There is a view, expressed on Bloomberg TV, that the US Dollar is expected to appreciate in the second quarter of 2008 and the gold move may have something to do with this.


----------



## Kauri

For a couple of weeks or more I have been suggesting the possible popping of the commodity bubble, if indeed it is a  bubble.... remember the housing bubble and the dotcom bubbles etc. weren't recognised as bubbles until after they had collapsed... I have also mentioned the Baltic Dry and its relatively ignored but none the less spectacular fall as a possible indication of bubble popping. Does anyone monitor the CRB??  

 The sharp decline in commodities this week was attributed to a number of factors including a positive shift to the USD and reports of large margin calls for funds and commodity accounts, fuelling the bail out in gold and oil. The move by MF Global to raise their margin requirements, though mostly in equities, added to the commodity selling pressure. And  the *Telegraph* reports a wide number of UK brokers now raising their margin requirements with Finspreads, City Index, IG Index and Saxo Bank among those listed.. The pressure on commodities due to margin calls is now seen in agricultural commodities too according to* Dow Jones* . The report says that cash prices for grains are at about five to eight week lows. The report also states, "Many commercial grain companies - including some of the nation's largest - have sharply curtailed their traditional forward-contracting operations, having run short of financing to cover potentially huge margin calls..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

Can someone please disproove some very simple theory I stated earlier:

If inflation in the US keeps soaring, what will happen to the USD?  Based on PPP?

USD cannot keep rising, no?  Or arbitrage will exist?  

And I would say there is a new paradigm shift in the global economy, how history can remain the same (at least the last 100 years + of stockmarket data) is beyond me!  Similarities, but a very different landscape.

As for comparison between the dot.com bubble and the commodity bubble, you cannot be serious?  My last paragraph is exactly what I am talking about, unless China/India start to really struggle and growth flatten out, we will not see a "pop" so to speak of this commodity bubble.  It is not a dot.com 1000x P/E ratio based on an "idea" of where the gobal marketplace is heading, rather more a prooven idea on where the global marketplace is heading.  Commodities are also not tulips if you know what I mean 

Disclaimer:  I currently hold practically no commodities in my portfolio.

I am also not saying there is not much further for commodity prices to fall (as I have exited my positions), however, in the medium-long run, they will remain very much a force in the global marketplace.  Unlike their predecessors tulips and dot.com companies.


----------



## Nyden

MRC & Co said:


> Can someone please disproove some very simple theory I stated earlier:
> 
> If inflation in the US keeps soaring, what will happen to the USD?  Based on PPP?
> 
> USD cannot keep rising, no?  Or arbitrage will exist?
> 
> And I would say there is a new paradigm shift in the global economy, how history can remain the same (at least the last 100 years + of stockmarket data) is beyond me!  Similarities, but a very different landscape.
> 
> As for comparison between the dot.com bubble and the commodity bubble, you cannot be serious?  My last paragraph is exactly what I am talking about, unless China/India start to really struggle and growth flatten out, we will not see a "pop" so to speak of this commodity bubble.  It is not a dot.com 1000x P/E ratio based on an "idea" of where the gobal marketplace is heading, rather more a prooven idea on where the global marketplace is heading.  Commodities are also not tulips if you know what I mean
> 
> Disclaimer:  I currently hold practically no commodities in my portfolio.




Well, that's just it though - a few do believe China will slow down. There are of course alternatives to a slow down though. If China will still be using a substantial amount of commodities; why would they not just increase their exposure to the industry; & use this as a means of capping the price of commodities?

Not to mention, this increase in price is curbing demand. The demand for gold jewelry is way down, & who is to say this won't occur with other commodities? I firmly believe it is a bubble, & am further convinced the fundamentals of commodities in general have changed, gold included.

Out of curiosity, at what price would some gold devout-believers be convinced of a trend change? Hypothetically (not saying it would happen!), would some true believers follow the price all the way down to $700?

Just seems to me that many holders of gold have made the very basic mistake of falling in love with their investment, & are riding euphoria...


----------



## explod

noirua said:


> There is a view, expressed on Bloomberg TV, that the US Dollar is expected to appreciate in the second quarter of 2008 and the gold move may have something to do with this.




Bloomberg is a mate of GWB and will ramp everything they can for the upcoming Presidential election.   A good policy is to do the oposit to what is expressed on Bloomberg and you will do ok.

The US dollar is doomed because it is not backed by assets but gold is an asset.  And they cannot stop gold now because too many people are now worried about the financials and have gold as the safe haven on their radar.


----------



## MRC & Co

I have no doubt growth will slow down in China/India, but that dramatic so as to cause a "pop" of this "bubble"?  First of all, I guess we have to define what constitutes a bubble and what constitutes a pop.  

I beleive there is further to fall (perhaps quiet a lot), however there is still some great strength for commodities over the longer term.  Unlike the dot.com or tulip bubbles, which were more of an "idea" than a "reality".

I will not be convinced of a trend change until I see it.  Hence, I am out of commodities!  I dont see a point of predicting, when you can wait and have it confirmed for you by price action.

What fundamentals have changed in the commodity sector?  I agree growth will slow, pushing prices down, at least the speculation bubble in itself has popped with a transfer of assets and safer margins (which I have done myself), but like I say above, unless China and India experience a dramatic impact from the US then commodities will come back to the forefront of many investments.  

Now for PPP and if inflation keeps rising, how the USD will rise?


----------



## Nyden

MRC & Co said:


> Now for PPP and if inflation keeps rising, how the USD will rise?




Fed could *raise* interest rates. That in itself could help the economy along ... as perhaps may are waiting on the sidelines for this apparent 0% that may arise. Shock of reality might suddenly spur them in.

Many are stashing their cash in hedges against inflation as well; such as commodities. This isn't beneficial to the economy either ... I honestly believe rates won't go below 1.5; or perhaps even what they're at now.

Tell me, what would an unexpected rate _rise_ would do to the price of gold? Off a cliff :


----------



## MRC & Co

You cannot be serious?

Why would they rise rates in the short-term, after they have just been slashing them.

Remember, most effects of a rate cut (or rise) dont filter into the economy until 1+ years.  

Talk about the Fed and contradition, even Ben is not that dumb!


----------



## Nyden

MRC & Co said:


> You cannot be serious?
> 
> Why would they rise rates in the short-term, after they have just been slashing them.
> 
> Remember, most effects of a rate cut (or rise) dont filter into the economy until 1+ years.
> 
> Talk about the Fed and contradition, even Ben is not that dumb!




Because certain members of the fed are proactive when it comes to inflation? Because if it absolutely spins out of control they'll have no choice (imo) but to raise rates, admit to a recession, & let the punters / undying faith finally die.

Their economy is dead for the moment, simple as that. Making things *more* expensive isn't going to fix it, no matter how much cheap money they offer to the masses ... who are already in debt. It is my belief that they'll figure this out :


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> I have no doubt growth will slow down in China/India, but that dramatic so as to cause a "pop" of this "bubble"?  First of all, I guess we have to define what constitutes a bubble and what constitutes a pop.
> 
> I beleive there is further to fall (perhaps quiet a lot), however there is still some great strength for commodities over the longer term.  Unlike the dot.com or tulip bubbles, which were more of an "idea" than a "reality".
> 
> I will not be convinced of a trend change until I see it.  Hence, I am out of commodities!  I dont see a point of predicting, when you can wait and have it confirmed for you by price action.
> 
> What fundamentals have changed in the commodity sector?  I agree growth will slow, pushing prices down, at least the speculation bubble in itself has popped with a transfer of assets and safer margins (which I have done myself), but like I say above, unless China and India experience a dramatic impact from the US then commodities will come back to the forefront of many investments.
> 
> Now for PPP and if inflation keeps rising, how the USD will rise?




Cant' disagree with what you are saying but wonder at the discussion of commodities per se in a gold thread.   The latter is more of a collecters item via jewelry and a store of wealth and a currency but commodities on the other hand are a  part of industry/manufacture etc.

From an investment point the fundamental and technical shifts are very different from each other also.  I think that Wall Street likes to lump gold with metals, as it help the cause at times to blinker the sheeple, but we know better I think.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> You cannot be serious?
> 
> Why would they rise rates in the short-term, after they have just been slashing them.
> 
> Remember, most effects of a rate cut (or rise) dont filter into the economy until 1+ years.
> 
> Talk about the Fed and contradition, even Ben is not that dumb!




Sorry, not picking on you but just have to addess the issue presented.

Dont' think the Fed have any vision at all that goes 2 and a half years, they are just warried ****less about surviving to next week and the Presidential election if they can.  And I think we all know they are going to fail that.


At the end of the day the Fed are only worried for the private individuals who own the Banks.   GWB, Bloomberg and Wall Street are all working towards that.

And the bailouts will be ultimately paid for the the poor American taxpayers over the next 40 or 50 years.


----------



## refined silver

Nyden said:


> Out of curiosity, at what price would some gold devout-believers be convinced of a trend change? Hypothetically (not saying it would happen!), would some true believers follow the price all the way down to $700?



Good question. My expected bottom is either $900-905 (in that case already in. Next strong support is $880-890, with very strong support from $850-875.

At what point would I be convinced of a trend change? A hard question to answer. I think I'm that convinced that we are heading to $2k+ and quite possibly a lot higher based on fundamentals of:

1. Systemic financial system meltdown $516trillion of notional vlaue OTC derivatives of various sorts that need marking to market, and to do this the whole system is insolvent. The only way out is monetising bankrupcy and producing a Weimar republic type situation with runaway inflation, (except deflation first in debt based assets such as houses etc)

2. USD decline. Will lose another 25-30% of its value due to shift away from $USD as reserve currency, massive CAD deficit, and budget deficit which need financing from outside huge putting upward pressure on interest rates and downward pressure on the dollar. 

3. US economy entering or in a recession. From this massive drop in tax revenues for the govt, meaning an exploding budget deficit which needs financing from outside, again leading to downward pressure on $ and upward on interest rates.

4. Supply/demand - Gold supply is in decline, SA power problems are long term, easy deposits have been found. S/T drop off in jewellry demand will be swamped by investment demand, and CB demand as Asian CBs often have very low gold reserves, sometimes around 1%. China and others have already spoken about the need to increase gold reserves. 

5 -10. etc etc. Could write more, but thats enough.

So in answer to the question when would I be convinced the gold bull is over? I think it would be under $500USD before I'd really seriously question whether I had everything wrong. A spike down to $700 or even $600 would have me convinced its short-term manipulation which cannot last and I would definitely hold. To sell out then would to me feel like selling out, late 1977 after the 2-3 year decline and missing the main action.


----------



## refined silver

Nyden said:


> Fed could *raise* interest rates. That in itself could help the economy along ... as perhaps may are waiting on the sidelines for this apparent 0% that may arise. Shock of reality might suddenly spur them in.
> 
> Many are stashing their cash in hedges against inflation as well; such as commodities. This isn't beneficial to the economy either ... I honestly believe rates won't go below 1.5; or perhaps even what they're at now.
> 
> Tell me, what would an unexpected rate _rise_ would do to the price of gold? Off a cliff :




The Fed will drop rates at the short end, the market will raise them at the long end. The Fed follows the market, the Fed will start raising when inflation is so evident even through their distorted, massaged and manipulated figures, and then it will raise them begrudingly and behind the true rate of inflation (already double digit if the same calculations used as was used to calculate inflation in the 70s).

If interest rates stay behind the real rate of inflation even if they rise, gold rises too. Look at charts from the 70s, gold didn't stop rising til they hit 17%. Both rose together in tandem.


----------



## Nyden

refined silver said:


> The Fed will drop rates at the short end, the market will raise them at the long end. The Fed follows the market, the Fed will start raising when inflation is so evident even through their distorted, massaged and manipulated figures, and then it will raise them begrudingly and behind the true rate of inflation (already double digit if the same calculations used as was used to calculate inflation in the 70s).
> 
> If interest rates stay behind the real rate of inflation even if they rise, gold rises too. Look at charts from the 70s, gold didn't stop rising til they hit 17%. Both rose together in tandem.




Yes, but it's all speculation; we can only guess what / when they'll do certain things.

You would really hold on to hold to $500? Surely you'd be selling / re buying ... sure, gold is perhaps great for a trader, but not so much for a medium term investor imo. 

I guess I just don't believe gold to be as sure-a-thing as many seem to think. Surely, if it were such an easy bet; it would already be priced to reflect all of these "guarantees" - the collapse of the USD, & all the other "facts".

Why aren't all managed funds pouring their money into Gold EFTs? Why does GS have short positions (do they still?) on gold?

Frankly, by the charts - depending on the year you begin from ... Gold has been a piss-poor performer! In 78'-80 it was 750 ... and it's only just hit that price range again! 30 years ... that is disgraceful. If you had bought in at 300 back in 79, & held with a long term, bottom-draw plan ... your money would not have made any gains if you sold up in 03. Wouldn't have even matched inflation.

All I'm saying is; it plummeted then, & it may eventually plummet again.



If this "secret, inside, select few, special" knowledge that seems to be possessed by many gold bugs doesn't ever become known / believed by the general public, gold simply won't budge.

Furthermore, gold is a metal. A precious, useless, shiny commodity; which merely has the perception of being something special : But, I accept that - for the time being, & probably for a long while yet ... it is just that. Something special.

In the eventual-long-term (not in our generation) I do see gold completely collapsing. People argue that once there's none left to mine, prices will rocket ... I disagree. Prices could plummet! If there's no longer any work-value placed on gold (the effort in getting it), & no more can be made / found ... and as population grows / it's only held by a few, who the hell would buy the archaic relic? Perhaps collectors? I know I sure wouldn't :

Here's something philosophical to ponder over; USD is backed by nothing? What is gold backed by?  ...


----------



## GreatPig

refined silver said:


> I think it would be under $500USD before I'd really seriously question whether I had everything wrong.



That's a drop of more than 50% from the recent high.

Makes me rather wonder what's the point of considering trends if a drop of more than 50% can still be considered on-track.

GP


----------



## GreatPig

Nyden said:


> USD is backed by nothing? What is gold backed by?



Both are used as currency, their only real value being in the promise that they can be exchanged for goods and services. Unlike the USD though, gold cannot be inflated away by large increases in supply. That helps maintain confidence, and thus demand, for gold as a form of currency that will hold its value.

In the end though, on the premise that some form of currency is needed to overcome the obvious limitations of a direct barter system, if everyone decided that some other substance was an even better form of currency, gold would become almost worthless.

GP


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Yes, but it's all speculation; we can only guess what / when they'll do certain things.
> 
> You would really hold on to hold to $500? Surely you'd be selling / re buying ... sure, gold is perhaps great for a trader, but not so much for a medium term investor imo.
> 
> I guess I just don't believe gold to be as sure-a-thing as many seem to think. Surely, if it were such an easy bet; it would already be priced to reflect all of these "guarantees" - the collapse of the USD, & all the other "facts".
> 
> Why aren't all managed funds pouring their money into Gold EFTs? Why does GS have short positions (do they still?) on gold?
> 
> Frankly, by the charts - depending on the year you begin from ... Gold has been a piss-poor performer! In 78'-80 it was 750 ... and it's only just hit that price range again! 30 years ... that is disgraceful. If you had bought in at 300 back in 79, & held with a long term, bottom-draw plan ... your money would not have made any gains if you sold up in 03. Wouldn't have even matched inflation.
> 
> All I'm saying is; it plummeted then, & it may eventually plummet again.
> 
> 
> 
> If this "secret, inside, select few, special" knowledge that seems to be possessed by many gold bugs doesn't ever become known / believed by the general public, gold simply won't budge.
> 
> Furthermore, gold is a metal. A precious, useless, shiny commodity; which merely has the perception of being something special : But, I accept that - for the time being, & probably for a long while yet ... it is just that. Something special.
> 
> In the eventual-long-term (not in our generation) I do see gold completely collapsing. People argue that once there's none left to mine, prices will rocket ... I disagree. Prices could plummet! If there's no longer any work-value placed on gold (the effort in getting it), & no more can be made / found ... and as population grows / it's only held by a few, who the hell would buy the archaic relic? Perhaps collectors? I know I sure wouldn't :
> 
> Here's something philosophical to ponder over; USD is backed by nothing? What is gold backed by?  ...




Gold is backed by greed.  The great gold rush to Victoria in the 1840's was greed, it is scarce.  So some people want it.  

Of the total investment pool gold only forms .005%, now that is a small part, if it went to .o1%, that would be double but because it is in such short supply the price would skyrocket.  

So yeh its a nothing if you like (which in fact is not true) but by your thesis, and interest only increases a little bit the gold bugs are going to make a killing.

Before making such a bland statement one would expect a bit of a read of this thread.  If you did that you would be purchasing all the gold you could get your hands on and dont' take my word for it read the thread and see for yourself.   It is the opportunity of a lifetime.

Problem is we all have the belief, (and mostly a sound one) "that if it sounds too good to be true it probably is"   the gold bull IS DIFFERENT


----------



## GreatPig

explod said:


> If you did that you would be purchasing all the gold you could get your hands on and dont' take my word for it read the thread and see for yourself.



Gee Explod, you're starting to sound like Chicken. 

Where is that bird these days anyway?

GP


----------



## explod

GreatPig said:


> Gee Explod, you're starting to sound like Chicken.
> 
> Where is that bird these days anyway?
> 
> GP




And while we are remebering, where's Bean, his prophecy is now down to 5 to 1 and some say shortening by the day.   Forget now;  Kennas you had it pinned down was it US$550?


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Bloomberg is a mate of GWB and will ramp everything they can for the upcoming Presidential election. A good policy *is to do the oposit to what is expressed on Bloomberg and you will do ok.*
> 
> The US dollar is doomed because it is not backed by assets but gold is an asset. And they cannot stop gold now because too many people are now worried about the financials and have gold as the safe haven on their radar.




  Can't agree more, I remember being pulled up a whiles back for expressing my use of contrarian indicators, glad to see you are on board.  
 I see Gold as nothing more than a commodity to be bought and sold, much as wheat or cattle or whatever, I think you will find the funds who have fueled the rises across the commodity board see it the same way, it's the sheeple, particularly those who fell in love with the mystic hype spun around gold and bought in fearlessly at prices over $1000 recently, (some on margin no doubt), who........  
I noted *a lot* of concern when the XAO fell past 10% originally, it is some majic number apparently that signifies a possible major turning point... yet when Gold does it, in quick time, it seems to be bullish???
Have attached my EW chart,(last posted when the white coily was forming)... interestingly the retrace has halted at 50% of the *5*th wave.. will that be it for the retrace will all systems go from here, will it bounce and continue down to correct the major *4*th wave, or......
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

Nyden said:


> Because certain members of the fed are proactive when it comes to inflation? Because if it absolutely spins out of control they'll have no choice (imo) but to raise rates, admit to a recession, & let the punters / undying faith finally die.
> 
> Their economy is dead for the moment, simple as that. Making things *more* expensive isn't going to fix it, no matter how much cheap money they offer to the masses ... who are already in debt. It is my belief that they'll figure this out :




I agree.

However, raising IRs now would be political suicide, election time and all that.

I am not saying it shouldnt happen, I am saying it wont happen!  Big difference.

Kauri, another contrarian here!

Explod, I dont like to lump gold in with commodities either.  But gold equities sure seem to run with them at the moment, both are afterall, lumped into the XMJ yeh?


----------



## MRC & Co

Nyden said:


> In the eventual-long-term (not in our generation) I do see gold completely collapsing. People argue that once there's none left to mine, prices will rocket ... I disagree. Prices could plummet! If there's no longer any work-value placed on gold (the effort in getting it), & no more can be made / found ... and as population grows / it's only held by a few, who the hell would buy the archaic relic? Perhaps collectors? I know I sure wouldn't :
> 
> Here's something philosophical to ponder over; USD is backed by nothing? What is gold backed by?  ...




If the US financial system collapses, where does that leave the USD?  How much supply of USD can come online at anytime?  How much gold can come online at anytime?  

Gold completely collapsing?  Huh?  Prices could plummet?  If you have a shift in global values and beliefs, not likely.  There will not be "no more can be made/found" for a LONG LONG time!  It will just cost more to extract!  It will become ludicrously expensive if it ever becomes THAT rare.  A real collectors item.  And by that time, once it comes to fruition maybe hundreds of years down the track, people like you (or me) not in the market for its purchase will not matter.  Because it will only trade in the hands of the absolute global elite.

Anyways, way off topic.  This wont happen in our lifetimes, so not relavent to this thread.


----------



## spectrumchaser

You guys are overlooking the huge growth in demand for gold
by the growing economies of India and China.

Bling ladies Bling

http://en.ce.cn/Business/pick/200612/05/t20061205_9674651.shtml


Gold consumption continues to surge in China
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-12-05 11:28

The consumption of gold across China will top 350 tons this year, a record high, according to Cheng Fumin, chairman of China Gold Association.

Addressing an ongoing forum on gold and precious metals held in Shanghai, Fu said rising gold prices since the beginning of the year had restrained sales of gold jewellery, which accounts for the bulk of gold consumption, but gold bullion -- seen as a way of preserving value -- has been selling like hot cakes.

The country produced 161 tons of gold in the first three quarters of the year, a rise of 13 tons on the same 2006 period, and raked in 3.9 billion yuan (about 487 million U.S. dollars) in pre-tax profits, up 52 percent on comparable figures from last year.

Fu predicted the country's gold output would exceed 240 tons this year, with gold sector profits topping 5.5 billion yuan, a record high.

China now ranks third in the world in terms of gold consumption, after India and the United States.

Gold consumption exceeded 300 tons in China last year, 80% of which went to the jewellery-making sector.




http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/india_gold_jewelry_gems_diamonds_industry_120620073
The jewelry industry in India contributes over 15% of the country's total exports and provides employment to 1.3 million people directly and indirectly.
Gold jewelry forms around 80% of the Indian jewelry market, with the balance comprising fabricated studded jewelry (including diamonds) as well as gemstone studded jewelry.
India consumes nearly 800 tonnes of Gold Bullion, accounting for about 20% of world gold consumption. Nearly 600 tonnes of it goes into making jewelry. The Indian jewelry market, estimated to be worth $13.5 billion in fiscal 2006-07, accounts for 8.3% of world jewelry sales by value according to a study by KPMG.


----------



## cuttlefish

Nyden said:
			
		

> Out of curiosity, at what price would some gold devout-believers be convinced of a trend change? Hypothetically (not saying it would happen!), would some true believers follow




I see support at $830, though I expect this short term decline to stay within the $870-$920 range - if its out in the wilderness for a while it could drift further but I'd be hoping $830 was the bottom of this.   So I guess a strong move below $800 would be significant.

I'm not a technician though and prefer to base my investment on fundamentals so that would still be the main driver - the key fundamental to me is the current decline of the US and in particulary US inflating itself out of the current credit crisis which imo is still just being postponed - reality is not being faced and they are just stringing things along month to month.  As I'm at the moment primarily investing in gold stocks I'm also looking at other factors not just gold price in determining whether the investment value is there - I see value in some of the stocks I'm investing in even if the gold price doesn't recover from the $850 -> $950 levels for a long time.


----------



## cuttlefish

Nyden said:


> Making things *more* expensive isn't going to fix it, no matter how much cheap money they offer to the masses ... who are already in debt. It is my belief that they'll figure this out :




Inflation doesn't necessarily make everything more expensive in real terms, though of course it makes some things more expensive and sometimes goods will lead and at other times wages will lead.  What inflation does is devalues cash (or inflation is the result of a devaluation of cash).  Extra money in the system reduces the purchasing power of each dollar in the system.  It is important to understand the shift in philosophy/outlook required when investing during an inflationary environment.  Investing in things that go up isn't enough - they have to go up in real terms.

Wage inflation can help the masses because their rising salaries can be used to reduce their previously insurmountable debt.  By devaluing cash the value of the debt is effectively reduced in real terms as well.  Of course typically interest rates will be high in a high inflationary environment which counters this effect to a fair extent but overall it can still in real terms reduce the size of existing debt.  That is why a moderate but not execessive level of inflation seems like a possible path for the US out of the current debt crisis.  That path WILL be at the expense of the USD in international terms though and there is a risk of the inflation becoming unmanageable and becoming hyper inflation.


----------



## Temjin

One need to remember that the Federal Reserve DO NOT CARE about the inflation regardless of what they say in the press. If you dig more deeply, you should be aware that "communication publicly" is one of their many strategies to control the economy. 

With so much public and private debt (and the fact that THEY CAN NEVER REPAY THEM), lower interest rates and increasing inflation is one sure way to reduce their debt. Why would the Fed care about inflation anyway?? IT's not in their interest to save the foreign governments who have such a massive reserve. Remember Benchopper & Co. are students and believers of deflation CAUSE depression. They will do absolutely ANYTHING to prevent it, inflating by lower short term interest rate is their first line of strategy. 

More to it later..


----------



## So_Cynical

POG falls a hundred or so dollars and this thread turns to mush 

Who said the gold bubble is deflating...hell its only just started, how can a
bubble burst when its only half full.....the perfect storm for POG is still 
building, ALL the "real world" indicators are still POG positive.

Gold will trend sideways for 3 to 6 weeks then away we go again...are we all looking at the same chart.????


----------



## cuttlefish

Nyden]USD is backed by nothing? What is gold backed by?  [/quote]

[QUOTE=explod said:


> Gold is backed by greed.




I agree with explod here.  In any society there are symbols of power. It takes very little in the way of money to achieve the basic needs for human comfort and sustenance, so once societies members attain this they then chase something else - symbols of their place in society that identify them as having a status - in modern society thats nice cars, expensive clothes, big houses, a big bank balance, power, control. 

Almost since the birth of modern man gold has been a strong psychological symbol of status, wealth and power and it has been coveted for milleniums.  Gold is universally recognised as a symbol of wealth and power in all modern religions and cultures. 

Our language and culture is scattered with references to gold - gold medals, pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, golden age, gold standard, gold credit cards, gold anniversary, gold wedding rings, golden guitar awards, gold cup, Nestle gold, gold record, guilt edged etc. etc..  

All of the most powerful civilisations and regimes over thousands of years have had gold as part of their symbolism for a very long time. (From the gold laiden tombs of the Egyptians to the golden domed mosque at Temple Mount in Jerusalem, to the Galleons of gold of the spanish plundered from the ancient civilisation of the Incas, to the gold treasures of the Ming dynasty in China, to the  crown jewels of Britain, to USA's Fort Knox).

Gold also can't be manufactured, doesn't react with many other chemicals and is extremely rare - there really isn't much gold by volume in the world.


Gold is backed by gold - it is axiomatic.


----------



## cuttlefish

MRC & Co said:


> If inflation in the US keeps soaring, what will happen to the USD?  Based on PPP?
> 
> USD cannot keep rising, no?  Or arbitrage will exist?




Exactly - the only way  that I can see that the USD can not fall when there is strong inflation in the US is if there is even stronger inflation outside the US or the market is not a true efficient market.


----------



## Nyden

cuttlefish said:


> I agree with explod here.  In any society there are symbols of power. It takes very little in the way of money to achieve the basic needs for human comfort and sustenance, so once societies members attain this they then chase something else - symbols of their place in society that identify them as having a status - in modern society thats nice cars, expensive clothes, big houses, a big bank balance, power, control.
> 
> Almost since the birth of modern man gold has been a strong psychological symbol of status, wealth and power and it has been coveted for milleniums.  Gold is universally recognised as a symbol of wealth and power in all modern religions and cultures.
> 
> Our language and culture is scattered with references to gold - gold medals, pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, golden age, gold standard, gold credit cards, gold anniversary, gold wedding rings, golden guitar awards, gold cup, Nestle gold, gold record, guilt edged etc. etc..
> 
> All of the most powerful civilisations and regimes over thousands of years have had gold as part of their symbolism for a very long time. (From the gold laiden tombs of the Egyptians to the golden domed mosque at Temple Mount in Jerusalem, to the Galleons of gold of the spanish plundered from the ancient civilisation of the Incas, to the gold treasures of the Ming dynasty in China, to the  crown jewels of Britain, to USA's Fort Knox).
> 
> Gold also can't be manufactured, doesn't react with many other chemicals and is extremely rare - there really isn't much gold by volume in the world.
> 
> 
> Gold is backed by gold - it is axiomatic.




Yes, but I quite honestly find that disgusting. That man feels the need to hold something another man doesn't have; to be better than others, & to flaunt their wealth to the have-nots.

Greed, lust for power, need for status symbols ... nothing but egotistical rubbish. I would hypothesise that if society were itself an entity, it would be narcissistic 

I guess gold becoming worthless will be a fantastic thing; as it'll be a true indication of society as a whole developing greater moral fibre, deeper conscience, & a respect / care for fellow man.

I've been talking more philosophically here though (last few posts!), as to what may happen in hundreds of years ... & not in the current period of time; but - surely this counts towards *really long* term fundamental analysis? Or rather, sentiment analysis!

 ... Perhaps that's why I feel an aversion to investing so heavily in gold; too much of an investors conscience? :



Now; I need to add something more on topic!
Do Goldman Sachs still hold their short position on gold at $800?


----------



## cuttlefish

Nyden said:


> Yes, but I quite honestly find that disgusting. That man feels the need to hold something another man doesn't have; to be better than others, & to flaunt their wealth to the have-nots.
> 
> Greed, lust for power, need for status symbols ... nothing but egotistical rubbish. I would hypothesise that if society were itself an entity, it would be narcissistic




There are differing motivations but at the end of the day ego is a big part of the human psyche and is unlikely to disappear and creates desires beyond the simple need for physical comfort and sustenance. 

Pure narcissistic ego isn't the only driver. Desire for power and control can be driven by many underlying emotional motivators.  Some will claim they want power to do good and have the influence that enables them to make the world a better place, which is often true but this is still not an egoless transaction.  

Humans have all sorts of drivers - related to innate and subconscious fears and survival instincts that drive them towards a need to have a position of status and power in society.

Just look at how society treats those with status vs those that don't have it.  Celebrities (e.g. the classic example of OJ Simpson) can get away with murder while there are numerous innocents on death row.   In Australia football players can get away with questionable behaviour of an extreme nature and have it swept under the carpet.

Status and power enhance mans ability to survive and to protect himself and his family.    I obviously can't explain the complexities of human interaction and ego within a paragraph or two on a forum.

But if you have no ego, and no desire whatsoever for status or power you are an extremely unique individual in this world.   There are many that would claim not to have this but they are likely mistaken.


----------



## pb112

This extract from a newsletter explains in part why POG had such a big sell off.


Mining Speculator Hotline

Hotline

"This is Greg McCoach with a Mining Speculator Hotline for Friday, March 21, 2008.

Events this past week have prompted me to send out this communication regarding the sudden collapse of the precious metals prices.

Here is what is happening.

The demise of Bear Sterns, which was reported to the public Sunday evening and Monday, has in turn caused their assets to be sold off in masse this week.

On their book of liquid assets was a rather large, long gold position. It is being sold off in order to raise cash to offset their massive losses. The spot prices have been hammered because of this activity. It will be short-term in nature. If you're looking to buy physical precious metals to diversify your portfolio at this point, you are being given an unexpected gift to do so. It won't last long.

Another item in Bear Sterns closet was a massive short-position in the ten year treasury. This off course is being unwound this week, which is making the dollar looking a bit stronger than it really is. Don't be confused by this nonsense. The dollar will soon resume its downward trend.

The fact that Bear Sterns was shorting the dollar to such a degree shows that they were not playing along with the game of the establishment Federal Reserve banking crowd. They have been severely punished by the powers that be.

What brought Bear Sterns to their knees was their own riverboat gambling mentality that not only jeopardized them, but the financial system as a whole. This kind of story is just the beginning of what will be a long list of companies that meet a similar fate. Will the Fed and the citizens of the United States be able to bail out all the financial sewage that is about to be uncovered?"


----------



## MRC & Co

cuttlefish said:


> Exactly - the only way  that I can see that the USD can not fall when there is strong inflation in the US is if there is even stronger inflation outside the US or the market is not a true efficient market.




Thats right, but with Fed actions, its unlikely.  Thats what I call a money supply saturation!  They dont call him helicopter Ben for nothing.

The market is also inefficient, things such as trade barriers, transport costs and differences in taxes cause the differentials in PPP.  However, only to a certain extent.  PPP does, evidently, have its rightful place in theory and reality.

_Nyden:  "Do Goldman Sachs still hold their short position on gold at $800?"_

Not sure, however I dont think they would have been holding their gold futures all the way into the run-up!  Imagine the contracts they would be trading, would have been one HELL of a margin call (well more like 30 margin calls along the way)!  Surely they would have stops set.  Perhaps they are shorting again now, more than likely.


----------



## refined silver

Nyden said:


> You would really hold on to hold to $500? Surely you'd be selling / re buying ... sure, gold is perhaps great for a trader, but not so much for a medium term investor imo.
> 
> Frankly, by the charts - depending on the year you begin from ... Gold has been a piss-poor performer! In 78'-80 it was 750 ... and it's only just hit that price range again! 30 years ... that is disgraceful. If you had bought in at 300 back in 79, & held with a long term, bottom-draw plan ... your money would not have made any gains if you sold up in 03. Wouldn't have even matched inflation.




The simplest way to make money is get the long term trends right. That doesn't mean buy and hold forever, but until the longterm trend changes. Eg to be a billionaire now from $10,000 start in 1970 needs 3-4 trades only. Buy gold 1970 sell 1980, buy Japanese stocks 1980 sell 1989, buy US tech stocks/1990 sell Jan 2000, buy gold 2001/2002 start selling well north of $2000 sometime round 2010/11, (although I think the bull could go a few years longer than that.

So no you don't need to trade, just get the main trend right and stay on til near the end, which is not now. 

Yes I'd hold to $500 and I'd still be in front of where I bought, and if it did go there which is very improbable, it would be dip in the main trend which would violently return, certainly not a time to sell.



> Furthermore, gold is a metal. A precious, useless, shiny commodity;
> 
> Here's something philosophical to ponder over; USD is backed by nothing? What is gold backed by?



No, gold is money. It has been for 5000 years and will continue even though the mainstream financial hates that, and actively promotes the gold is a commodity view, because gold is the direct competitor to their paper money, of which every single currency has ultimately end up worthless, because there is too much temptation to just print more when the govt needs it.

Why is gold money? It has all the charcteristics necessary for money which virtually nothing else does. If you don't know what they are look them up.


----------



## wayneL

refined silver said:


> Why is gold money? It has all the charcteristics necessary for money which virtually nothing else does. If you don't know what they are look them up.



As far as I know, my local supermarket won't take gold in exchange for a sack of potatoes and a loaf of bread.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> As far as I know, my local supermarket won't take gold in exchange for a sack of potatoes and a loaf of bread.




That depends on who u talk to at the supermarket wayne!


----------



## Gurgler

refined silver said:


> Why is gold money? It has all the *characteristics *necessary for money which virtually nothing else does. If you don't know what they are look them up.




The five characteristics I know are:

Divisible - can be divided to pay exact value
Portable - can be carried around
Durable - can last longer
Easily recognised - standardised
Generally acceptable – guaranteed in the market

Wayne has acknowledged that the last one is a bit of a problem - unless you have easy access to bullion dealers!

But I'd argue that on a day-to-day basis, divisibility is also, not to mention portability - again unless you own an armoured truck equipped with melting/carving facility.


----------



## refined silver

Gurgler said:


> The five characteristics I know are:
> 
> Divisible - can be divided to pay exact value
> Portable - can be carried around
> Durable - can last longer
> Easily recognised - standardised
> Generally acceptable – guaranteed in the market
> 
> Wayne has acknowledged that the last one is a bit of a problem - unless you have easy access to bullion dealers!
> 
> But I'd argue that on a day-to-day basis, divisibility is also, not to mention portability - again unless you own an armoured truck equipped with melting/carving facility.




You better add "rare" to the list otherwise sand would also fit the bill.

I'm not arguing for a return to gold as money in general circulation, then you'd need silver for divisibility and probably other coins too -copper zinc etc but with much higher values than they have now. There is a way to put gold back in the system slightly different from how its been before, which I believe will happen.

Without the rarity factor, govts just inflate away especially when confronted with a crisis, and that returns paper money to its intrinsic value - 0.


----------



## GreatPig

Related to rarity is also the inability to create more.

One problem with gold as a currency though, especially now where a small amount is so valuable, is the guarantee of its purity. Unless you wanted to get it assayed every time you accepted some, I think it would be rather easy to get ripped off.

GP


----------



## Nyden

GreatPig said:


> Related to rarity is also the inability to create more.
> 
> One problem with gold as a currency though, especially now where a small amount is so valuable, is the guarantee of its purity. Unless you wanted to get it assayed every time you accepted some, I think it would be rather easy to get ripped off.
> 
> GP




Yes; which is why gold as an *actual* currency would never work. Just because something has value (which is dynamic / always changing); doesn't mean it can be classed as a currency. 

If the entire world were to adopt gold as a currency (either backing current currency with gold ... or by having actual little coins of gold out there); it would eventually get to the point where a piece of gold the size of a grain of sand would be used; or would be the backing of a $100 bill.

Not to mention; eggs in one basket, anyone? Massive war ... gold gets stolen, or buried under ruble / radiated in the aftermath of nuclear war? What, country goes bankrupt?

The rarer it gets, & the more expensive it becomes; the further it will get to ever being a currency. What person would trade a car for a piece of gold the size of a 5c piece? Granted ; that's an extreme example.

I guess that's how it goes though; diamonds the size of a marble can be worth more than a house ... to me, that just seems *so* idiotic. A house, or a rock? Seems so obvious to me! Feed a thousand people for a year, or have something shiny on your finger ... sigh.

None of these super-rare commodities will ever protect anyone from a *major* collapse. Gold was confiscated in the depression, & can you imagine if things in the world ever got so bad (worse than depression); where the bulk of people in the West simply couldn't afford food? The masses would riot, & the people simply wouldn't tolerate (anymore) some having what they would make in a lifetime on their finger, cradled in gold. 
Edit; Heck, the people must already be starting to take notice. Isn't one of the new 'deadly sins' obscene wealth?


----------



## metric

in my short time in the market, ive observed that it isnt facts, it is what people BELIEVE that makes the difference..gold or whatever


----------



## cluster

James Turk has solved the notion of returning gold to its true purpose - money.
http://goldmoney.com/
Gold is Money.
goldmoney fits all the constructs below.



Gurgler said:


> The five characteristics I know are:
> 
> Divisible - can be divided to pay exact value
> Portable - can be carried around
> Durable - can last longer
> Easily recognised - standardised
> Generally acceptable – guaranteed in the market
> Rare


----------



## refined silver

metric said:


> in my short time in the market, ive observed that it isnt facts, it is what people BELIEVE that makes the difference..gold or whatever




Buffet said: "In the short term the markets are a popularity machine, in the long term a weighing machine"


----------



## cluster

Yep, they are!  We have a liquidity crisis at the moment, funds are selling whatever moves, even the good investments now in a dash to reduce leverage.  This is tanking commodities/gold, but make no mistake neither is at the end of their bull runs.  Oil supply and demand forces are unbalanced, and peak oil is nothing but very bullish for oil, oil/gold have historically had factor of 15 between them, clearly gold is cheap now!  And we can see the systemic rot in the financials at present.  I am taking this as an excellent oppurtunity to top up on gold, this is a gift.

By the way I love this thread!  Read bits of it right from the begining, and though the bulls have changed the fundamentals never have what an awesome legacy!.

Cluster.




refined silver said:


> Buffet said: "In the short term the markets are a popularity machine, in the long term a weighing machine"


----------



## explod

Yep, gold will be too rare soon to be money.

I understand here in Aus., that silver coins are now about worth vace value.

What about copper, it is in very short supply world wide, mines being depleted and warehouse stocks low.  Hit almost US$4 a pound about a month ago.   Could we see copper pennies at a dollar or similar and a US$10 silver coin.  Our 1966 round silver coins are almost worth that now for their silver content.   and a $1,000 gold coin and we could do away with notes altogether.  Nah, not enough gold, have to mix some lead in.

Now I would like someone to say I am an idiot so that I can make my 1,000 sd., post


----------



## explod

Well now that I have clearly established that I am no idiot, I want to say where I know in my own heart gold is going in the next four years.

Someone posted up a chart and story by a bloke who extropolated historically the gold price back a long time against the Dow Jones.  It was some sort of inflation adjusted thingo.

The punch line was that gold will in that time hit between $US20,000 and 50,000 an ounce.

And I believe it.  Bloke on the counter side at Matthey's Bullion said he did too.

I thought that a post about my 1,000 would be off topic so put in that bit of padding as a preamble.

As a boy my Dear Dad, (at rest now 40 years) used to say "If bulls..t was music, you'd be a brass band"

cheers explod.

Anyway, trading back tomorrow sand serious business again


----------



## GreatPig

Nyden said:


> What person would trade a car for a piece of gold the size of a 5c piece?



Hell, I'd probably make on the deal if I did that with my car .



> where the bulk of people in the West simply couldn't afford food



If it got to the point where actual survival was threatened, food, water, and shelter would become far more valuable than gold. Who's gonna trade a meal for a pile of gold when they're starving?



			
				explod said:
			
		

> gold will be too rare soon to be money



Two other things about gold (or other precious metals) as currency:

- The denominated coins must have a face value higher than the content of their metal value, otherwise they'll just get melted down for scrap.

- During stable growth periods, currency being tied to gold restricts growth due to the lack of available funds to promote development. That's why periods of high growth happen when credit availability and liquidity are high. However, excess credit and liquidity eventually lead to excess capacity and asset bubbles, so I think it's a tricky balance to maintain - and it would seem no one has managed it yet.

GP


----------



## cluster

No need to use PM as currency, doing so would be a waste and risk loosing the PM, a gold backed currency is one where the notes (paper/plastic) are directly redeemable for a certain amount of gold, all of them.  The advantage is that this currency cant be inflated without actual work going into the procurement of more metal!

The true beauty of a gold backed currency is the increase in the world supply of gold is pretty much a constandt 2% every year, to alter this is quite difficult, a world GDP of 2-3% pa is deemed sustainable, hence growing the money supply (gold) by this amount each year would be just perfect.  This tie to gold implicitily keeps the governments honest!  This is the beauty of it, another thing Sir Isaac Newton invented the gold standard, you can bet he figured out it IS the best system to abide by.

Read my post on goldmoney, already today you can use gold (infinitely divisible) to carry out day to day transactions!  I cant wait for the unwinding to end so i can add to my position, this may well be the last gift before gold goes to the moon.

-Cluster.


----------



## Temjin

Nyden said:


> None of these super-rare commodities will ever protect anyone from a *major* collapse. Gold was confiscated in the depression, & can you imagine if things in the world ever got so bad (worse than depression); where the bulk of people in the West simply couldn't afford food?




If that happens, then this thread, or rather, the entire forum on investment genre will no longer matters because we will all be doomed. 

The fact is that gold and silver has been regarded as "money" for a relatively large portion of the recorded human history that there are no reasons why it would fail. Fiat currencies are a pretty new stuff you know, and historically, all of them fail sooner or later. 

If it comes to a point where there is a massive depression, global war type era that would set human back 50 years+, gold will still been as a viable storage of value even while when the form of trading has fully degraded back to "bartering". 

Your definition of a "major" collapse to the point where gold will become useless would usually mean the end of human civilisation. 


Here are some more info about the PMs been seen as real money.

http://cij.inspiriting.com/?tag=money

Several articles in  this one.



			
				cluster said:
			
		

> Read my post on goldmoney, already today you can use gold (infinitely divisible) to carry out day to day transactions!  I cant wait for the unwinding to end so i can add to my position, this may well be the last gift before gold goes to the moon.




And yep, this was mentioned as one of the more promising solution to "free-to-print-all-fraud-fiat-money-that-is-doomed-to-fail".

Though it comes down to a bit more consiracy theories. Do anyone realistically think the people "in power" would allow such a thing to happen? The ability to print as many money as one wants in order to control the economy and the population is not something ANYONE sane human with greed emotion will hand over.


----------



## kransky

Is it possible to get a gold futures chart with price and volume? I'd like to see volume increase substantially as its sold down heavily like it is right now


----------



## explod

kransky said:


> Is it possible to get a gold futures chart with price and volume? I'd like to see volume increase substantially as its sold down heavily like it is right now





Yeh and it is back up again now.  Forget it for a few days till the traders wipe the sleep from there eyes. Little movements in light trade give no clues at all.   This time tomorrow will say more.


----------



## barrett

kransky said:


> Is it possible to get a gold futures chart with price and volume? I'd like to see volume increase substantially as its sold down heavily like it is right now




Yep - check out the Kauri Trading thread.


----------



## barrett

Nyden said:


> Yes, but it's all speculation; we can only guess what / when they'll do certain things.
> 
> You would really hold on to hold to $500? Surely you'd be selling / re buying ... sure, gold is perhaps great for a trader, but not so much for a medium term investor imo.
> 
> I guess I just don't believe gold to be as sure-a-thing as many seem to think. Surely, if it were such an easy bet; it would already be priced to reflect all of these "guarantees" - the collapse of the USD, & all the other "facts".
> 
> Why aren't all managed funds pouring their money into Gold EFTs? Why does GS have short positions (do they still?) on gold?
> 
> Frankly, by the charts - depending on the year you begin from ... Gold has been a piss-poor performer! In 78'-80 it was 750 ... and it's only just hit that price range again! 30 years ... that is disgraceful. If you had bought in at 300 back in 79, & held with a long term, bottom-draw plan ... your money would not have made any gains if you sold up in 03. Wouldn't have even matched inflation.
> 
> All I'm saying is; it plummeted then, & it may eventually plummet again.
> 
> 
> 
> If this "secret, inside, select few, special" knowledge that seems to be possessed by many gold bugs doesn't ever become known / believed by the general public, gold simply won't budge.
> 
> Furthermore, gold is a metal. A precious, useless, shiny commodity; which merely has the perception of being something special : But, I accept that - for the time being, & probably for a long while yet ... it is just that. Something special.
> 
> In the eventual-long-term (not in our generation) I do see gold completely collapsing. People argue that once there's none left to mine, prices will rocket ... I disagree. Prices could plummet! If there's no longer any work-value placed on gold (the effort in getting it), & no more can be made / found ... and as population grows / it's only held by a few, who the hell would buy the archaic relic? Perhaps collectors? I know I sure wouldn't :
> 
> Here's something philosophical to ponder over; USD is backed by nothing? What is gold backed by?  ...




Been away a few days, RS answered most but here's my view on it.. in Q&A..

*What is gold backed by?*
Gold is backed by the labour and capital required to extract it from the earth.  It therefore has _intrinsic value_ - it has a replacement value that bears relation to real world things.. salaries, truck tyres, rents.  Paper notes have no replacement value- their production and printing cost almost nothing.  They have value only in people's readiness to accept the intrinsically worthless paper as a store of value.

*Why would people stop accepting PAPER as a store of value?*
It begins when the net yield on paper currencies turns negative.  Jin Li has saved RMB 50,000 in a bank account, and it's earning 3.5%pa interest.  But her money is losing its purchasing power at 7.5%pa - the rate of consumer price inflation in China.  Will she be happy with her savings losing purchasing power at a rate of 4%pa year after year?  Will US savers be happy with a similar annual loss? Cash savings in the US Dollar, the Renminbi, the Ruble and many other paper currencies are *losing value* domestically year on year, because REAL INTEREST RATES ARE NEGATIVE.  This isn't some mysterious knowledge unique to gold bugs - it's kitchen table reality.  People don't like losing money.  That's why the gold price has been rising strongly these 8 years.  Not fear of deflation, not 'safe haven', not jewellery, not speculators, not Y2K: negative real rates and more importantly at this point, investor anticipation of them.

*Why are real interest rates in key paper currencies negative?*
One week ago, the global financial system came within a hair's width of collapse.  The Fed realises how serious this is - that's why they slashed interest rates.  Consumer price inflation is now higher than the interest rate, and still trending up, while interest rates are being forced down.  This makes real rates more negative, and paper currencies even less attractive as stores of value.  

*Why would people prefer to store their savings in GOLD under these circumstances?*
Because gold is a universal currency that pays a 0% rate of interest, and zero percent interest is preferable to a negative rate of interest!  Period!  If you look at the history of government currencies through the Roman Denarius, French Assignat, US Continental, 1949 Chinese Yuan, Argentine Peso, etc.- all failed experiments in government money - you'll see that through the past 2000 years of history, whenever negative real interest rates prevailed in government currencies, the value of gold went up massively relative to those government currencies.  It's pretty simple and logical. 

*Will gold go up or down? *
Short-term aside, it's pretty simple: will real interest rates in the major currencies trend up or down?  Personally I am skeptical that inflation is going to fall, after agricultural commodities just doubled or tripled in price, with strong fundamentals - and I'm skeptical that the Fed will now suddenly be able to raise interest rates to generate a positive real rate in the face of a slowing, debt-laden economy. 

I'll be keeping my gold holdings until there is any reasonable prospect of real interest rates in the major currencies turning strongly positive for more than a year.  That's when the 1970's gold bull market ended - when Paul Volcker in 1980 raised the overnight rate to 21.5% - vs. a 13% rate of inflation, giving a REAL interest rate of 7.5% - and kept it there.  A similar measure will be needed to bring the current gold bull market to a halt - that is, to stop severely penalising cash savers.  Anyone who thinks Bernanke can raise the nominal overnight rate to 10% in the near term should take their investment cues from US housewife parties, and sell gold!

Anyone who doesn't understand the central importance of negative real interest rates for gold should probably not get involved in precious metals because they won't know when to ultimately sell!

On the chart: gold sold off in early 1980 as contrarian investors anticipated positive real interest rates. From Jim Rogers, of soon after Volcker was appointed: "I sold gold after a speech by Paul Volcker: I could see the guy was serious about tackling inflation".  

When Bernanke's successor delivers a similar speech I'll sell my long term gold holdings - but not before!


----------



## refined silver

> barrett said:
> 
> 
> 
> Been away a few days, RS answered most but here's my view on it.. in Q&A..
> 
> *What is gold backed by?*
> Gold is backed by the labour and capital required to extract it from the earth.  It therefore has _intrinsic value_ - it has a replacement value that bears relation to real world things.. salaries, truck tyres, rents.  Paper notes have no replacement value- their production and printing cost almost nothing.  They have value only in people's readiness to accept the intrinsically worthless paper as a store of value.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Agree with most of what you said. Your above comment about the cost of gold extraction was why I put $500 gold as absolute bottom. (believe it or not many gold projects, BFS etc are still based on a long term gold price projection of $450Au, some have started moving to higher L/T Au price projections recently).
> 
> I would add though that gold will do what it did in 1980. It balanced the external liabilities of the US.
> 
> It is not just a commodity backed by its cost of extraction it has been accepted as money for all of human history. Basic economics is MV=PQ meaning the money supply (M) times by the velocity of money (V) must equal the value of all the goods in society (price times quantity). Hence if gold returned to back currency you could calculate its value. Even if doesn't, it will at some stage balance the external liabilites of the US again. What the US refuses to do through sensible fiscal policy, gold will do. In other words, the price of gold multiplied by US reserves of gold will one day balance in accounting terms the value of all US external liabilites (the value of outstanding US treasuries held abroad.
Click to expand...


----------



## Trembling Hand

kransky said:


> Is it possible to get a gold futures chart with price and volume? I'd like to see volume increase substantially as its sold down heavily like it is right now




Yeah open a futures trading account and subscribe to ECbot data or buy it from some expensive data provider like esignals.


----------



## Temjin

barrett said:


> On the chart: gold sold off in early 1980 as contrarian investors anticipated positive real interest rates. From Jim Rogers, of soon after Volcker was appointed: "I sold gold after a speech by Paul Volcker: I could see the guy was serious about tackling inflation".
> 
> When Bernanke's successor delivers a similar speech I'll sell my long term gold holdings - but not before!




One major concern is that the method used to calculate CPI has been tempered and severely UNDERESTIMATED in recent years. I don't know what is the history of calculations changes in CPI, but the real inflation should be much higher than the offical interest rate right now.

I'm not sure if the mass are aware of this and how this would influence the gold price. Realistically, the real interest rate is right now is almost as negative as back in the 1980s, but then it is hidden by the skewed CPIs. 

Bloody fed reserve trying to manipulate prices...


----------



## CamKawa

Looks like the USDI might be starting to bite the dust.


----------



## cuttlefish

explod said:


> The punch line was that gold will in that time hit between $US20,000 and 50,000 an ounce.
> 
> And I believe it.  Bloke on the counter side at Matthey's Bullion said he did too.




Although it seems like an unlikely prospect I agree its possible - all it would take is the USD to go into a nose dive.  And if it got to that stage people would stop measuring/thinking of the gold price in terms of its USD value - but in terms of its purchasing power independantly because the USD would be largely out of the picture (and possibly other currencies along with it).

The question is are we on the brink of USD currency collapse? Its in the interests of all governments at the moment to prevent a USD collapse and try to ensure an orderly decline. (middle eastern sovereign wealth funds wouldn't have 'invested' in Citigroup otherwise, and China would dump its bonds if it wanted a USD collapse to occur). But the best laid plans can still fail. It certainly appears as though the US debt bubble is close to popping point but they've been sailing close to the wind for decades and usually seem to manage their way out of it - maybe they will again - but its hard to see it happening without some significant fallout for the USD this time around.  Maybe not a collapse but a significant decline at least.


----------



## Young Gun

First indicator of trend reversal according to Williams %  R based on backtesting, interesting to hear your opinions. Every time this stock has crossed the bottom band after a period of sustained losses , the upward cross has signaled the end of a bear run.


----------



## barrett

Short term the charts still don't look great to me on the price/volume.. been out of the futures since March 4th due to the volume TH referred to... and then Kauri's hammer (admittedly I didn't predict the correction, but the signs kept me out).

How are others reading this market on the ST?

There is a potential support level at E575-580.

Charts for Newmont, Coeur look pretty horrible, medium term, from a charting perspective.. but the XAU:gold is in firm buying territory at 0.186 so I'm inclined to pay more attention to the excellent fundamentals than to pay too much attention to these charts..


----------



## barrett

Young Gun said:


> First indicator of trend reversal according to Williams %  R based on backtesting, interesting to hear your opinions. Every time this stock has crossed the bottom band after a period of sustained losses , the upward cross has signaled the end of a bear run.




so far twice on the chart - have you backtested this back any further?


----------



## Kauri

consumer confidence... expected 73... printed 63... a fillip for gold but not so flash for the S+P????
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## josjes

barrett said:


> so far twice on the chart - have you backtested this back any further?



will be interested to see this indicator back in May 2006 gold crash.


----------



## Young Gun

May 2006 Williams indicator as requested. I have to admit i have done limited backtesting on this however it seems to looks fairly good. Each time it was crossed and continued it has led to atlest a 4% swing. Seems to work better for small short term price swings as July to October was a downtrend, although no indicator is perfect .


----------



## wayneL

Williams% is exactly the same as fast stochastic, just indexed differently.

It measures the closing price in relation the the last x days highest and lowest price. That's it.


----------



## CamKawa

There's a video on the front page of Bloomberg with some bloke talking about the possibility of the Fed fixing the USD. What are people’s thoughts on the likelihood of that happening and what does it mean for the POG?


----------



## cuttlefish

Unless the underlying fundamental situation changes I can't see intervention doing anything but postponing the inevitable - but it could possibly buy enough time to prevent a full collapse and allow them to ride through.  Any prolonged intervention will mean there isn't a free and efficient market in the dollar, which means an unregulated parallel "black" market would likely start to appear and the USD would no longer be behaving as a proper currency.

Short term intervention to prop something up at a time when the fundamentals are shifting back into its favour would be a different situation and would potentially help the USD - but the fundamentals would have to change (no more subprime icebergs, no more money printing).


Just reading about the Fed involvement in the Bear Sterns buyout - they are tipping in $29 billion for 10 years at 2.5% - so thats not a 30 day discount window loan to stop a liquidity freeze up - its a direct injection of $29 billion into the system.


----------



## barrett

Young Gun said:


> May 2006 Williams indicator as requested. I have to admit i have done limited backtesting on this however it seems to looks fairly good. Each time it was crossed and continued it has led to atlest a 4% swing. Seems to work better for small short term price swings as July to October was a downtrend, although no indicator is perfect .




Hey, that's not bad - only one false signal I can see there... Wayne can you suggest an improvement?


----------



## barrett

Some of us, me included, use MT4 fed by North Finance for the spot gold and charting, MT is great but I think something's up with the Norths gold feed.  Monday it had 8-month support line on the daily at about 890.. on stockcharts it was in the low 900s and so the support was actually tested, I just discovered.  Also in early Feb on North feed I got a major trendline breakdown which turned out to be unique to the North data.. tried switching to Orion just now but their volume isn't right.. grateful for any tips on best alternative data feeds for GOLD.
Cheers
1- Stockcharts, 2- North (both daily charts)


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> Hey, that's not bad - only one false signal I can see there... *Wayne can you suggest an improvement*?




No, just want folks to understand what is being measured and make their own conclusions.


----------



## WRONG'UN

Hi Barrett
The Stockcharts chart is on log scale, Norths is on natural. You can convert Stockcharts to natural scale by unticking the "log scale" box in the menu below the chart - if you do this you get the same chart as Norths.


----------



## Young Gun

Gold looking promising at the moment, up to $954.70 peak this morning. I'd expect it to trade sideways between $9.35 and $960 for a few weeks before it tests any resistance levels higher north of this band.


----------



## CamKawa

Young Gun said:


> Gold looking promising at the moment, up to $954.70 peak this morning. I'd expect it to trade sideways between $9.35 and $960 for a few weeks before it tests any resistance levels higher north of this band.



I'm feeling a bit more optimistic than that. The POG has been largely driven by a falling USD and I think the dollar may continue to fall. See video - http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588...html?_i_referralObject=697245262&fromSearch=n

A chart of the USD Index http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w


----------



## kransky

jobless claims and GDP data due tonight in the US so i am hoping Gold breaks into the 960's

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteId=


----------



## CamKawa

Some interesting reading.

*Opportunities arise from gold price plunge*
http://compareshares.com.au/zeal38.php


----------



## Trembling Hand

Would like to see some volume back before I got excited about this rise. Lots of punters with burnt fingers.


----------



## kransky

please keep posting those charts with volume TH.. i dont get volume on CMC and that's very useful information!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Would like to see some volume back before I got excited about this rise. Lots of punters with burnt fingers.




However, volume coming in now, after an uptrend is already in place, could signify the weaker hands coming in because they feel they are "missing out".  Perfect time for another shake-out.  If increased volume comes in, you would want to see the price continue to rise consistently, any sideways or downward movement after one or two up-days, could signify some professional action coming in to force a few more stops.  Be especially careful of tight ranges (narrow spreads) with closes in the lower portion.


----------



## Young Gun

The trend line was broken and the price dropped aprox $10 in quick succession. Whilist the trend level was breached, it quickly subsequently rebounded. I expect that in the short term the price will trend sideways, unless large volume push the price above support. 

Having trouble inserting the chart, if you want to see it

http://1younggun.blogspot.com/


----------



## Kauri

I'm being a tad cautious around these Fib levels... also note that the increase margin requirements.. for most commodes... kick in today/tomorrow???.. and that I read somewheres that hedgies are estimated to have $42Bln investment/punt in commodes...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

Has anyone been selling gold futures recently, as soon as New York comes online?


----------



## barrett

WRONG'UN said:


> Hi Barrett
> The Stockcharts chart is on log scale, Norths is on natural. You can convert Stockcharts to natural scale by unticking the "log scale" box in the menu below the chart - if you do this you get the same chart as Norths.




Hey thanks for the tip  Forgot all about that log default on SC...  so no problem with North's feed. 

I guess the market is paying attention to both the linear.. since some long-term trendlines are appearing on it... and the log scale (eg support line formed on Monday)..  
Was hoping to look at the log charts with MT4 but can't find that option..


 Just noticing a cpl of things... gold newsletter sentiment dropped off a cliff by the end of last week, to a rock bottom 11.5% according to Hulbert
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...x?guid={1987E425-4997-4A1D-BCB3-1A6D99E48255}

That coincided with a strong medium-long term buy signal from the XAU:gold ratio of 18.5. 

I hate to say it - seeing as I missed the 906-950 move... but in hindsight 906 did have some characteristics of major interim lows.  One of those being just about everyone, me included, thinking it would go down further!... (mebbe it still will.. but either way we can't be too far away from a buying opportunity.. XAU:gold<0.19 usually only comes by about once a year, twice at best)

Something else about the seasonals following on from that Zeal article.. June and July usually bring weakness in gold because of the drop-off in jewellery demand in Asia.  But this year Indian jewellery demand was, I gather, very small even in January, one of the 'big' months.. it's the investment demand that's driving the big price moves in this climate.  I have come to expect mid-year weakness as 'given' and usually wait until then to top up on my favourite holdings.. but maybe this year the seasonal weakness in jewellery demand won't make any difference.


----------



## barrett

MRC & Co said:


> Has anyone been selling gold futures recently, as soon as New York comes online?




yeah I had the team working an order to dump 200 April GC at market.... I'm Ben by the way.............................. Bernanke:batman: hehe


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Here we go again?


----------



## Young Gun

Looking strong although I see it sitting at this level for a couple of days before trending upwards.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> ... also note that the increase margin requirements.. for most commodes... kick in today/tomorrow???..




What markets are you increasing margins, nothing changed on CBOT from what I can see. And why didn't that carrier pidgen land on my desk?


----------



## Kauri

Trembling Hand said:


> What markets are you increasing margins, nothing changed on CBOT from what I can see. And why didn't that carrier pidgen land on my desk?




 can't find the articlw now but here is one from a day or three back..

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={C4964D3D-4A03-4CF5-80A2-743709DE47E9} 

 and if you look closely you may see where the carrier pidgeon has been..  

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## CamKawa

That article didn't metion gold though. Have margins been changed for gold? If they haven't could that make gold more attractive against other commodities or will it bring all commodities down including gold?


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> That article didn't metion gold though. Have margins been changed for gold? If they haven't could that make gold more attractive against other commodities or will it bring all commodities down including gold?




Commodities and gold are different catigories which has been pointed out many times.  They do move together at times in the same way that gold will move with the general market.  Gold is aligned with currencies and the other with manufacture.  As a general rule of thumb.

For followers of gold it is important to learn these distinctions in my view and there is ample information by going back over this thread.

Buffet says, 'never invest in anything that you do not underrstand"  I am amazed at the number of people that appear not to follow this basic concept.  And that is not having a go at you Cam, it is an alarming number.


----------



## Trembling Hand

The Margin required for a Futures contract is irrelevant. Anyone who is trading on minimum margin will be trading for......about 3 days. Forget about it. Futures margins are always changing and often the daytrading margins also get pulled.  

Any decent trader doesn't base their R:R on margin.


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Buffet says, 'never invest in anything that you do not underrstand" I am amazed at the number of people that appear not to follow this basic concept. And that is not having a go at you Cam, it is an alarming number.



I'm not a big fan of the whole gold is money thing and I view gold as a commodity. Here we are on the edge of financial disaster and if gold is money why hasn't it decoupled from the commodity sector?


----------



## Kauri

meanwhile... a coily may be forming???? (hourly)

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Has anyone been selling gold futures recently, as soon as New York comes online?




he he   Woops that was meant to be Barretts quote.

Good analysis though Barrett, sentiment indicators usually predict changes in trends very well.  Once this is backed up by price action, its time to move.  Same as you though, my bad, let the volatility throw me out!

Cam, I agree as far as the gold is money thing!  However, no doubt unlike other commodities, as mentioned previously, it is not bound by economic growth limitations.  Like others, it is however, still a hedge against inflation.  

Gold really needs stagflation to kick in, if this comes out within GDP and CPI figures, gold will head for the moon!


----------



## Young Gun

From a charting perspective I said I think gold with trade sideways for a bit however on the fundamental side i think we could be seeing a breakout very soon. 

Pushing POG up are the following: 

- Renewed fears about the US economy
- Bearish $USD currency depreciation contiuned
- Jump in oil prices due to supply concerns regarding pipeline explosion in Iraq
- Analyst just cut forecasts for the major American banks

What a difference 1 week makes, last week it was the end of the bear markets and a recovery in the banking sector.


----------



## kransky

fund managers needing cash (liquidity) and the fed (confidence in the $US) will be pushing gold down anytime it rises much so take any decent profits as they appear?


----------



## barrett

CamKawa said:


> I'm not a big fan of the whole gold is money thing and I view gold as a commodity. Here we are on the edge of financial disaster and if gold is money why hasn't it decoupled from the commodity sector?




Gold and silver have decoupled materially from nearly all industrial metals in the past 8 months, with gold up 50% while copper has been flat and zinc, nickel and lead have come off their highs by 25-50%.

I suggest not thinking of gold as a 'disaster hedge' - 90% of the financial journalists in the world do - and they still can't explain why the price of gold tripled, or doubled depending on the currency, during 2001-June 2007 in an era of financial stability and consumption.

The reason it went up, and still is,  is that gold's currency exchange rate is driven by investor anticipation of real interest rates in the paper currencies, which is influenced by overall commodity prices:

Real interest rate = nominal interest rate - consumer price inflation

A fall in overall commodity prices pushes up the likely future real yield on government currencies, making gold less attractive.


Just because the world has had an experiment with unbacked paper currency for the past 30 years doesn't change the fact that gold has been the currency of choice for humans for well over 2000 years.  All previous unbacked paper currencies have failed, and the problems of the US dollar/empire are no different.  Just history repeating itself before a stunned audience who can't be bothered reading about the last time it happened! (referring to some extended family and acquaintances there, not thread contributors).

People on my mum's side of the family in particular, think 'technology' will solve the problem.  It's like um.... it's not that kind of problem!  



CamKawa said:


> That article didn't metion gold though. Have margins been changed for gold? If they haven't could that make gold more attractive against other commodities or will it bring all commodities down including gold?




The effect of the margin increases is often a brief pause or pullback in the affected commodities and gold could well follow suit whether or not it's affected directly.

A possible counter-influence to that is the end-of-quarter rebalancing going on at investment funds, who'll be trying to avoid showing long dollar positions on their books.


----------



## Temjin

barrett said:


> Just because the world has had an experiment with unbacked paper currency for the past 30 years doesn't change the fact that gold has been the currency of choice for humans for well over 2000 years. All previous unbacked paper currencies have failed, and the problems of the US dollar/empire are no different. Just history repeating itself before a stunned audience who can't be bothered reading about the last time it happened! (referring to some extended family and acquaintances there, not thread contributors).




Isn't it funny that most people have already forgotten the facts above. History "almost" always repeat itself, and humans will never learn given their short life span, and memories.


----------



## MRC & Co

barrett said:


> Gold and silver have decoupled materially from nearly all industrial metals in the past 8 months, with gold up 50% while copper has been flat and zinc, nickel and lead have come off their highs by 25-50%.
> 
> The reason it went up, and still is,  is that gold's currency exchange rate is driven by investor anticipation of real interest rates in the paper currencies, which is influenced by overall commodity prices:
> 
> A fall in overall commodity prices pushes up the likely future real yield on government currencies, making gold less attractive.




Since gold has decoupled from commodities and real interest rates are driven by composite commodity prices, what else is influencing the POG?

If the likely future real yield on government currencies rises due to a fall in inflation expectations (lower commodity prices), then wouldn't nominal IRs also fall, leading to a balancing of currency yields?  

I would say its a combination of this cost push inflation (staglation reality), leading to investment in commodities (China/India growth + inflation hedge).  Add to that slowing economic growth leading to a cut of IRs, lower yield still on currencies.  Which ultimately leads to an extremelly low (negative) real IR yield.  Hence, for a rise in the POG.  

Add to that the fact that base metals (Dr Copper etc) are bound by economic growth, leads a transfer of assets to gold to hedge against uncertainty, slowing GDP + inflation.

Confluence of facts (expectations) leading to the rise in the POG in my humble opinion.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Isn't it funny that most people have already forgotten the facts above. History "almost" always repeat itself, and humans will never learn given their short life span, and memories.




Yeh that is a very good point.  The 1930 situation is now three generations ago.   Some of the present wealthyest families in Melbourne made thier respective fortunes in gold back then.  Such families would remember and be back in.

Now the Australian gold rush was the 1840,s, that was a 90 year difference which is out a bit.


----------



## barrett

MRC & Co said:


> Since gold has decoupled from commodities and real interest rates are driven by composite commodity prices, what else is influencing the POG?




Hi.... Gold has decoupled from the base metals - not from commodities as a whole.  Was just wanting to draw attention to the precious/base price divergence.  Also, the increased demand for gold hasn't just been because supply is flat and say, dentists are using more of it.  It seems like the market is increasingly giving gold and silver a monetary premium relative to purely industrial commodities - I see that premium as being stimulated by the negative real rates.



MRC & Co said:


> If the likely future real yield on government currencies rises due to a fall in inflation expectations (lower commodity prices), then wouldn't nominal IRs also fall, leading to a balancing of currency yields?



I don't think so -US nominal IR and inflation are moving almost independently at the moment, because of the Fed's 'dual mandate'.  Policy being driven by economic growth and bank solvency.



MRC & Co said:


> I would say its a combination of this cost push inflation (staglation reality), leading to investment in commodities (China/India growth + inflation hedge).  Add to that slowing economic growth leading to a cut of IRs, lower yield still on currencies.  Which ultimately leads to an extremelly low (negative) real IR yield.  Hence, for a rise in the POG.




I agree. The supply/demand of the commodities has been very tight.. coming from an Austrian perspective I'd add alongside that supply/demand of money.  As I see it the excessively easy supply of money and credit under the Keynesians over many years played a major role in setting up the present negative real rates - mainly in creating the US 'debt mountain' that forces interest rates down.. but also in creating consumer price inflation by diluting the value of dollars..



MRC & Co said:


> Add to that the fact that base metals (Dr Copper etc) are bound by economic growth, leads a transfer of assets to gold to hedge against uncertainty, slowing GDP + inflation.
> 
> Confluence of facts (expectations) leading to the rise in the POG in my humble opinion.



I agree, negative real rates is not the only thing.. but I see it as the final 'catalyst' for gold to finally rise after decades of excessive money creation..  cheers


----------



## Kauri

Coupled...decoupled.. or just Tomas the Tank Engine having trouble with the caboose.. again....  but maybes central banks are attempting to support the USD??. Fed custody holdings for the week of March 26th have hit a new record high of $2.195 tln, rising $22.254 bln in the last week. Fed custody holdings have now risen a massive $137 bln since the middle of January when unusually large gains in custody holdings began to emerge. Average holdings were up $15.757 bln to $2.184 tln. What does this mean for gold.. if above musings are right??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> meanwhile... a coily may be forming???? (hourly)
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




just love those short and coilies...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:


> just love those short and coilies...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



LOL

You're not from New Joisey are you?


----------



## Kauri

lower-than- expected core PCE inflation data which dampened inflation fears isn't helping put the shine back on Gold at the moment, niether are rumours that a London fund is liquidating its gold position. and soon, I guess, the inevetible whispers about margin calls being triggered...
 although the hedgies have/are currently busy lobbing another stun grenade into the pits.. this time about massive euro.bank losses... anything to pull gold up short and quick maybe??? maybe not??
Cheers
.........kauri


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> Coupled...decoupled.. or just Tomas the Tank Engine having trouble with the caboose.. again....  but maybes central banks are attempting to support the USD??. Fed custody holdings for the week of March 26th have hit a new record high of $2.195 tln, rising $22.254 bln in the last week. Fed custody holdings have now risen a massive $137 bln since the middle of January when unusually large gains in custody holdings began to emerge. Average holdings were up $15.757 bln to $2.184 tln. What does this mean for gold.. if above musings are right??
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





Interesting numbers there.. they may be trying to slow the rate of fall a bit,  overall I thought the US would be quite liking the stimulation from the low dollar..  Europe is probably desperate for an intervention but the dollar index.. I gather.. is very much driven by the dollar/ECB interest rate difference... as long as their rate policies are so different it's hard to imagine an intervention working.   & I can't pick which bank would change its rate policy in the near term..
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10924165


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> lower-than- expected core PCE inflation data which dampened inflation fears isn't helping put the shine back on Gold at the moment, niether are rumours that a London fund is liquidating its gold position. and soon, I guess, the inevetible whispers about margin calls being triggered...
> although the hedgies have/are currently busy lobbing another stun grenade into the pits.. this time about massive euro.bank losses... anything to pull gold up short and quick maybe??? maybe not??
> Cheers
> .........kauri




The focus was always on little Baby Bear, because he is so cute, Big Bull falls for this every time and stops in his track. 

The same thing happened in November last year after the correction late October.   February 06 also.

Explained here last week that we should expect a big show while the sheeple had the eye on 1,000 and that there would be big fireworks to give them a good and stern lesson.  And of course the creation of cataclysmic expectations and then the data coming out better than expected has been the porky that cunning old fox has his eye on all the time.

Of course the financial breakdown continues to deteriorate and gold looks to be one of the few things of value that is acceptable for attempts at survival.

And the buyers on the other side of this are having a ball with swings of between 5 and 10%.


----------



## Kauri

has the baby bear finished his porridge , or is there more in the bowl yet... on the one hand we have.."get in quick, you wont see prices/opportunities like this again"... and on the other hand.."any sheep could see a correction was/is overdue".... 
 for mine these little?? 5-10% swings are pure gold to trade in and out of... longer term, well thats easy, isn't it???
 Happy 
........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri you deserve it, we all do.   I think the porkies are getting scarce.

A brief of the Privateer Newsletter is very significant this week.  My preamble and take as follows (some of his understanding is way over my head):-

short term 1 and 2 month gold lease rates have gone into negative territory for the first time in his recollection (at least beyond the current bull) and is what choked off golds rally

it has cost the bullion banks very little to borrow gold (or silver) for a long time however lease rates are becoming a problem and the demand for leased gold is drying up.

it is apparently this practice which has been the central banks best weapon to suppress the price of gold

apparently the situation is so bad that the CB.s are actually paying the borrowers to borrow the stuff.  When this can be no longer sustained, and that could come down to a matter of days the increase in the price of gold lease rates is almost certain to be spectacular with the commensurate effect on the gold price.
[end preamble]

As I have said before I am merely a subscriber to "the privateer" my brief above is just that and salient points can be missed.  Anyone serious about investing through these troubled times should go to the source itself.

cheers explod


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Kauri you deserve it, we all do.   I think the porkies are getting scarce.
> 
> A brief of the Privateer Newsletter is very significant this week.  My preamble and take as follows (some of his understanding is way over my head):-
> 
> short term 1 and 2 month gold lease rates have gone into negative territory for the first time in his recollection (at least beyond the current bull) and is what choked off golds rally
> 
> it has cost the bullion banks very little to borrow gold (or silver) for a long time however lease rates are becoming a problem and the demand for leased gold is drying up.
> 
> it is apparently this practice which has been the central banks best weapon to suppress the price of gold
> 
> apparently the situation is so bad that the CB.s are actually paying the borrowers to borrow the stuff.  When this can be no longer sustained, and that could come down to a matter of days the increase in the price of gold lease rates is almost certain to be spectacular with the commensurate effect on the gold price.
> [end preamble]
> 
> As I have said before I am merely a subscriber to "the privateer" my brief above is just that and salient points can be missed.  Anyone serious about investing through these troubled times should go to the source itself.
> 
> cheers explod




explod, very interesting. Can you please let us know more about it?

http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html

It does look very...different recently. The lease rates turn absolute negative for the first time in the last 10 years.

What does this mean exactly to the POG? How do they suppress the gold price through leasing anyway?

Really need to dig deeper. So could use your help. It does look "worrying" to me. 

Thanks.


----------



## gfresh

This is a couple of years old, but may offer some explanations of the process...  

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0119.html


----------



## CamKawa

I've googled "gold lease rate" and done a bit of reading but I'm now more confused than when I started...

If someone could give a short explanation as to what this plunge in the lease rates will mean to the spot POG over the coming weeks that would be appreciated.


----------



## kransky

surely gold is leased out in amounts measures by weight and not value? or is it?

if its by weight then why would you pay someone to take your gold for a month then give you back the same amount?

if its by value then it makes more sense. You pay them to take your gold for a month then they give you the same value in gold back.. which might be a lot more gold if the price falls during that month.

bearish for gold imo


----------



## Temjin

This is getting more complex...

read this guys and see if anyone could get anything out of it.

www.silveraxis.com/commentary/gold_silver_leasing.pdf 

The 13 points noted in the article seem to mention that an increase of leasing rate (positive) tend to indicate an end to the bullish phase or the start of a bearish trend. This seem to be true when the leasing rate for gold is like 73% at the peak of 1980s bull. While the latter, a lower leasing rate (and toward negatives) mean the start of a bullish phrase or end of a bearish. (which never occured)

But other points seem to contradict this. I'm trying to find out more as it does seem the leasing rates have turned negative for the first time in 10 years. It must mean something quite significant. I bet we will see more of it in the next few days as analysts scramble to write about it.


----------



## gfresh

The way I take it (which may be incorrect), the demand has fallen out of the gold leasing business, meaning negative interest rates are being used to actually pay those borrowing gold, instead of charging them. This would otherwise seem contrary to common sense.. however.. 

According to a few readings, short term gold leasing goes up when central banks wish to suppress the price of gold when gold is likely to rise strongly (to protect currencies, kick china in the testes, or for whatever other reasons). 

Most short-term lending of gold is used for shorting or bring down the spot price of gold (think stock lending except for gold). When short-term lending rates spikes up above long-term rates, it's a sign that attempted suppression of the price of gold is in effect due to greater demand for short-term leased gold (demand driving rates up). So why is it spiking down into negative territory, not up? 

Two possible reasons I can see - 

1. That central bankers are encouraging gold borrowers to lease as much as possible, giving dealers ample access, and hammering down the price of gold. 

2. Central bankers are about to release a lot of gold onto the market from their reserves, meaning there is no need to "lease" gold, when a large surplus will be soon available on the open market. Again, this has to bring down the price of gold. Lenders may wish to pay those who lend gold, on the expectation that rates will snap back sharply once the new supply is exhausted. 

All of this may make sense given the G7 nations are fretting that their currencies are now appreciating too strongly against the greenback, which lowers their export effectiveness, and have stated in recent weeks "intervention" may be required. Part of this may be reducing the attractiveness of gold as an alternative. 

Yes? No? maybe?

p.s. temjins article makes sense too, my theory is based on reading conspiracy theory talk from goldbugs


----------



## Kauri

why add complexity to a trading decision when you don't need to??
who understands leasing rates and is willing to forecast on its readings *before* it moves???not the"_Talking Heads_" and "_newsletter experts_", their I told you so's will come out *after* the moves... if *anyone here is brave enough* now is the time to make a name for yourself!!! Please!!!! Tell us what it means before, not after....

Look at the charts... it is all there.... I thunk...

If an E#**^ zone bank !@@#$%%.com  falls over next week what will happen to Gold.. will it not react immediately to the new stimulus because Leasing Rates say it shouldn't??? or should???

Life is hard, why make it harder??

P{lurry hard to get the new synthetic cork out of Woolies special J.P.Chenet's french Sav Blanc..    hope it's worth it!!  :remybussi

Cheep, cheep,
...................Budgeauri


----------



## CamKawa

Temjin said:


> This is getting more complex...
> 
> read this guys and see if anyone could get anything out of it.
> 
> www.silveraxis.com/commentary/gold_silver_leasing.pdf



I wonder if this is the long and the short of it.

(5) Gradually rising gold "lease rates" are therefore typically a sign that gold is in, or approaching, bear market conditions.​ 
(6) Conversely, gradually falling gold "lease rates" are typically a sign that gold is in, or approaching, bull market conditions.​ 
I can't find any commentary on the change in leasing rates in the media. I wonder exactly when this change took place. 

The one month rate here http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html is stated at -2.78%, whereas gold lease rates here http://www.kitco.com/charts/g_leaserates.html give a different figure for the one month rate at about -0.01%

Can we get figures from anywhere else to verify that the leasing rates have actually changed and it's not a Kitco error?


----------



## gfresh

That article contains a lot of scenarios, so I am not sure there are any firm conclusions in there.. 

If you wish to take the uber bull position, you would be looking at this paragraph. 

(11) A break in the linkage between interest rates and gold prices can also happen if and when the Gold Forward Offered rate exceeds LIBOR. This could occur if *deflationary pressures drive general market interest rates lower* at the same time that *significant gold demand fails to find an outlet in the spot market due to limited physical supplies*. The result could be negative gold "lease rates" as gold price expectations may create an entirely new phenomenon: cash borrowed to buy gold for future delivery (what I call "gold bonds"). In effect,* this is the equivalent of gold owners forward selling their gold at higher and higher prices, and receiving cash up front to be used for current liquidity needs.* The difference from gold swaps is that the gold would not change hands until a future date. Gold bonds, in effect, represent an unlimited short position in cash. I note that such a situation would not actually be sustainable ad infinitum because it requires a certain level of confidence in the paper markets -- confidence that erodes by definition as gold demand accelerates. Stated another way, *the escape of gold bonds from the genie's bottle -- as evidenced by gold "lease rates" turning negative -- will spell certain doom to all fiat currencies -- as evidenced by gold “lease rates” turning positive and accelerating toward infinity. *

and this:

(13) The most important and ultimate point about gold "lease rates" is that people should 
perhaps be first looking for a zig ("lease rates" shrinking and then going negative) instead 
of a zag (spiking "lease rates") as they assess the health of the gold market.


----------



## kransky

interesting.. yes possibly very bullish for gold.. but when exactly did these negative lease rates "happen" and didnt gold get hammered a fair bit in its last 24hrs of trading?


----------



## gfresh

"A break in the linkage between interest rates and gold prices can also happen if and when the Gold Forward Offered rate exceeds LIBOR."

hmmm ..this is exactly what has happened 27th and 28th.. 

http://www.lbma.org.uk/2008gofo.htm

the first time this has happened in 10 years of data listed.. 

http://www.lbma.org.uk/statistics_historic.htm


----------



## explod

kransky said:


> interesting.. yes possibly very bullish for gold.. but when exactly did these negative lease rates "happen" and didnt gold get hammered a fair bit in its last 24hrs of trading?




The lease rates went negative only in the last week, in other words the banks are throwing gold out at a bargain for the shorts to supress the price  as did happen last week.

A part para. not covered properly in my preamble above from the Privateer Newsletter reads thus:

"..."leasing" Gold is actually "shorting" Gold.   Gold is not "leased" to be hoarded, it is "leased" to be sold for something that pays a far higher rate of interest."     end of quote

It would appear that those wanting to lease (to go short) are a dwindling crowd. the long side is becoming the popular place to be.

So it should be an interesting week or so ahead indeed.


----------



## Kauri

OK.. I am short Gold .. as per my posts earlier (_before _the latest slip) re..
  a) fib levels..
  b) coily..
  c) rumours of a UK Hedge fund dumping...

  so now.. on the fundementals being espoused, should I cover my short first thing Monday because of the lease rates?? or maybe wait until until something happens that can be skewed backwards to the lease rates with the help of the ultimate indicator... hindsight???  
  Really hoping to get a _definative answer_ to trade by by Monday A.M... not just a "if it doesn't go up then it will probably go down" or "we don't predict short=term, only lay down multiple statements that can be filtered and pulled up when relevent after the next move"... _ it is the next move I am interested in.. before.. not after._.   
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> OK.. I am short Gold .. as per my posts earlier (_before _the latest slip) re..
> a) fib levels..
> b) coily..
> c) rumours of a UK Hedge fund dumping...
> 
> so now.. on the fundementals being espoused, should I cover my short first thing Monday because of the lease rates?? or maybe wait until until something happens that can be skewed backwards to the lease rates with the help of the ultimate indicator... hindsight???
> Really hoping to get a _definative answer_ to trade by by Monday A.M... not just a "if it doesn't go up then it will probably go down" or "we don't predict short=term, only lay down multiple statements that can be filtered and pulled up when relevent after the next move"... _ it is the next move I am interested in.. before.. not after._.
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Kauri, your answers can only be found by following your charts.  And that has been good for you.   My info., and that of most others here, only helps us understand the fundamentals of the long term bull.

It is going to be very volatile, what we have seen is nothing, check the "immenent and servere market correction" thread, crap is going to blow through the fans in the days ahead.

Reading the latest "Privateer" out tonight, more US banks will follow Bear Sterns" and will make what has happened so far look like chicken feed, (read budgie feed 4 u)   The US dollar will continue to tank so at some stage soon, gold is going to rebound at a clip.


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Kauri, your answers can only be found by following your charts. And that has been good for you. My info., and that of most others here, only helps us understand the fundamentals of the long term bull.




I agree, follow your charts and be consistent with your trading strategies.

Most of us here are long term fundamentals. If I was trading mechanically, I would have totally ignored anything fundamentally related and stick to my system and money management. Regardless, I don't tend to "trade" gold/silver anyway. The "trading" part is for something else that I am currently working on.  

Another interesting, but LONG article on the manipulation theory.

www.sprott.com/pdf/not_free_not_fair.pdf

It's 4 years old, but very relevant to what we are seeing today. Seeing leasing rate is now at the negative level, it seem the central banks are preventing the whole thing from going into "backwardation". Apparently, that is what killed Long Term Capital Management too. 

Now I'm more even worried about holding long contract future positions. (That is, through ETFs such as GLD for gold and SLV for silver)


----------



## barrett

Hi Kauri, 
I don't like to comment when I don't have any really firm signals, like now
But I'm not buying futures yet, because as on the 5-min below, the volume just continues to come in on the liquidation side and very little interest coming in on the rallies.

The negative lease rate is very interesting.. and consistent with the negative yielding TIPS.  People are worried about inflation.  Everyone except long-dated treasury bond holders, it seems..

If the lease rate is determined in a bidding process, it indicates the banks are no longer as interested in shorting gold as a source of funds.  But on the short term.. I doubt it would cause any kind of rally lasting beyond silly hour.  Gold leasing is a secretive activity that rarely comes up for discussion.  
Did you get the cork out?


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> "..."leasing" Gold is actually "shorting" Gold.   Gold is not "leased" to be hoarded, it is "leased" to be sold for something that pays a far higher rate of interest."     end of quote
> 
> It would appear that those wanting to lease (to go short) are a dwindling crowd. the long side is becoming the popular place to be.




I pretty sure the above statement is WRONG! (with out reading the back ground)

If you own an asset and leases it out you are only trying to gain extra income BESIDES or on top of the capital appreciation.

Think of a house you own because you believe it will appreciate but you also lease it out to gain income. Your not shorting the asset you are a long term holder. Same as a stock lender. They lend out shares because they are long term bullish but also gain extra income lending (leasing) out the stock.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> I pretty sure the above statement is WRONG! (with out reading the back ground)
> 
> If you own an asset and leases it out you are only trying to gain extra income BESIDES or on top of the capital appreciation.
> 
> Think of a house you own because you believe it will appreciate but you also lease it out to gain income. Your not shorting the asset you are a long term holder. Same as a stock lender. They lend out shares because they are long term bullish but also gain extra income lending (leasing) out the stock.





The above statment by William Buckler is not wrong.  You may have your understanding of how shorting works here but what Bill is talking about is the precise way that it works between the Bullion Banks and the Federal Reserve in the US and it is this dynamic that has given them control over the gold price since the Bretton Woods Agreement.

The punch line or crux is that no one wants to lease it anymore because no one wants to be caught on the short side anymore.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> The punch line or crux is that no one wants to lease it anymore because no one wants to be caught on the short side anymore.




Thats doesn't make sense.

Are you saying the Lessor or lessee is short in this example?


----------



## barrett

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats doesn't make sense.
> 
> Are you saying the Lessor or lessee is short in this example?




It does make sense - 'leasing' refers to either borrowing or lending, most correctly borrowing as in this context.  The lessee is short.  Through the 80s and 90s many investment banks borrowed gold, sold it, and used the money to invest in other things - it worked in those times because the gold price was going down... clearly in recent times it's been a disaster..


----------



## Trembling Hand

barrett said:


> It does make sense - 'leasing' refers to either borrowing or lending, most correctly borrowing as in this context.  The lessee is short.  Through the 80s and 90s many investment banks borrowed gold, sold it, and used the money to invest in other things - it worked in those times because the gold price was going down... clearly in recent times it's been a disaster..




Yes the lessee is or can be short OK I agree on that. I thought that you where talking about those leasing out the gold.

But another thing about this. Surly if you wanted to short gold you would use the futures not the physical. Maybe 20 years ago you would use physical because the Futs volume was not crash hot but now you can get all the liquidity you need in the futures. And its a hell of a lot cheaper to do. And quicker.

Just because a market dries up doesn't mean the players haven't gone elsewhere with the same game.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes the lessee is or can be short OK I agree on that. I thought that you where talking about those leasing out the gold.
> 
> But another thing about this. Surly if you wanted to short gold you would use the futures not the physical. Maybe 20 years ago you would use physical because the Futs volume was not crash hot but now you can get all the liquidity you need in the futures. And its a hell of a lot cheaper to do. And quicker.
> 
> Just because a market dries up doesn't mean the players haven't gone elsewhere with the same game.




Absolutely true, but the issue has been that the Fed have used these methods to suppress the price of gold so as to protect the concept of paper fiat currency.  As they are no longer it seems, able to do so, gold will break loose of this shackle to the upside.

The significance of the sudden change to the lease rates will be the effect on gold and silver.    If we digress back to the statement; ..."this descent of the short term rates into negative territory choked off Gold's rally this week and then, on March 28,sent it into sharp reverse as the spot future Gold price close dropped $US 18.20 on the day."  [end quote from The Privateer]

The question is how long can it be lent out at a negative return?.  They cant sustain for more than a few more days and when it goes back up so will gold.

I have found it all very hard to get my head around let alone try to explain it,  so can appriciate how confusing it must be for mere observers.  However I have picked up just enough to realise that we are at a very significant point in the demise of the $US as the world reserve currency and the important role gold will play to preserve wealth till the financial mess is worked out.

There must be others who have greater understanding/insight and who can put it into more comprehensionable terms.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I have found it all very hard to get my head around let alone try to explain it,  so can appriciate how confusing it must be for mere observers.




:bowdown:



explod said:


> However I have picked up just enough to realise that we are at a very significant point in the demise of the $US as the world reserve currency and the important role gold will play to preserve wealth till the financial mess is worked out.




Well I look forward to following your prediction of the end of the financial world as we know over the next couple of days.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> :bowdown:
> 
> 
> 
> Well I look forward to following your prediction of the end of the financial world as we know over the next couple of days.





In fact it has already happened but they just dont' want to admit it yet.  The US is absolutely broke.   The debt service fee of the entire economy is now way over thier income.  The other point to that is that 80% of thier GDP is internal consumption.    But this now belongs to another thread.


----------



## Kauri

clear as mud..

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/milhouse012699.html 

Cheers
...........Kauri

 P.S it is also the end of the month,quarter,and for the Japanese the end of the Financial year... does this potentially have an affect..??


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> In fact it has already happened but they just dont' want to admit it yet.  The US is absolutely broke.   The debt service fee of the entire economy is now way over thier income.  The other point to that is that 80% of thier GDP is internal consumption.    But this now belongs to another thread.




I did not know you worked for the Fed Explod, that's handy. So you care to share anymore facts with us?

1-4 hour and daily chart tell me long on gold. so i am long. 

Ent 933.55
SLO 907


----------



## Kauri

meanwhile... a bit early yet to say which direction, if any, that she will take, but a potential coily on the hourly..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> I did not know you worked for the Fed Explod, that's handy. So you care to share anymore facts with us?
> 
> 1-4 hour and daily chart tell me long on gold. so i am long.
> 
> Ent 933.55
> SLO 907




Not sure what you may mean by that.  I am only trying to put a point of view across that I believe in an earnest manner.   Unlike the Wall Street spin doctors feeding crap to the sheeple on which they unload.

That facts of US insolvency are readily available, no big deal, they have just been spending beyond their means for many years and the debt collector is finally screwing things down.    And a hard look at out own ballance of payments and trade says we are in for some shocks too. Lucky to have our big resources pit to offset to some degree but the downturn in the US will impact on that for awhile too.

Yep, and I am long gold for the long term.   But short term, who knows IMHO


----------



## metric

explod said:


> Unlike the Wall Street spin doctors feeding crap to the sheeple on which they unload.





i watched an alex jones video about 911, the elite etc. the term for people other than the elite is 'cattle' aparently. not sheep.


----------



## explod

metric said:


> i watched an alex jones video about 911, the elite etc. the term for people other than the elite is 'cattle' aparently. not sheep.





Yeh, I think sheeple used of late because it sounds like people.   I remember the Grandparents many years ago speak of "cattle to the slaughter" when talking of first war battles.

To move back to core, "Gold" moving up as we speak.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Not sure what you may mean by that.  I am only trying to put a point of view across that I believe in an earnest manner.   Unlike the Wall Street spin doctors feeding crap to the sheeple on which they unload.
> 
> That facts of US insolvency are readily available, no big deal, they have just been spending beyond their means for many years and the debt collector is finally screwing things down.    And a hard look at out own ballance of payments and trade says we are in for some shocks too. Lucky to have our big resources pit to offset to some degree but the downturn in the US will impact on that for awhile too.
> 
> Yep, and I am long gold for the long term.   But short term, who knows IMHO




What i mean is there are so many of u report experts on here now. You all know more about the US economy then the Americans. I know I am sounding harsh but I am getting sick of it. Maybe you should all go to the states and show em how to run the worlds largest economy.

So you know it's a bull market but u have no idea on what's doing on the short term. so how will u know when it's not a bull market. that is some crazy thing to say! the new bear market will start intraday then daily then weekly then monthly. so like i said in past post when will u know to get out? when the fundamentals change? by that time you would have lost more then 50% of your profits.


----------



## wayneL

>Apocalypto< said:


> What i mean is there are so many of u report experts on here now. You all know more about the US economy then the Americans. I know I am sounding harsh but I am getting sick of it. Maybe you should all go to the states and show em how to run the worlds largest economy.



Not a really helpful post.

Mate, there are different imperatives for the observer/trader to the political economists.

The political economists are interested in propping up the economy in order to retain power.

The trader/observer knows when an economy needs some bitter medicine the former don't want to face.

If you would read the writings of most neutral American economists, you would see they pretty much dovetail with the views expressed here.

If you have an opposing view, backed up by analysis and logic, lay it out instead of nitpicking.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> What i mean is there are so many of u report experts on here now. You all know more about the US economy then the Americans. I know I am sounding harsh but I am getting sick of it. Maybe you should all go to the states and show em how to run the worlds largest economy.
> 
> So you know it's a bull market but u have no idea on what's doing on the short term. so how will u know when it's not a bull market. that is some crazy thing to say! the new bear market will start intraday then daily then weekly then monthly. so like i said in past post when will u know to get out? when the fundamentals change? by that time you would have lost more then 50% of your profits.




No, it is not from what I am told, it is from Amercians who I have come to know that the information comes.   I have read many learned authors in economics with degrees from Harvard Business School, others who have had more than thirty years of experience on Wall Street.  Due to my concerns for the financial future for my family I have made it my business to study basic economics and fundamentals.   The real information comes from many hard yards in learning.

You will note that most of my posts are backed by information from authentic sources.  

And I am out of the general market, have been for 12 months, most of my investment is in physical bullion, GOLD on the ASX and some selected emerging ASX gold stocks.


But you need to do your own checking.  Taking the lead from Bloomberg, the Newspapers and what bank analysts have to say is not good enough.  There are many alternative overseas news sites that will paint the true picture.

For a start google the web page of "Financial Armageddon"  the bloke behind this is an academic and experienced Wall Street dealer, he has been spot on.  From his web site you can expand to many more.  

Check the web page (Australian) of "The Privateer" he will give a free offer of a newsletter, it is heavy stuff, (print a hard copy) and work your way through it, you will see a new picture for yourself.

But in particular go back and work your way through this entire thread and also that of "Imminent and servere market correction"


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> Not a really helpful post.
> 
> Mate, there are different imperatives for the observer/trader to the political economists.
> 
> The political economists are interested in propping up the economy in order to retain power.
> 
> The trader/observer knows when an economy needs some bitter medicine the former don't want to face.
> 
> If you would read the writings of most neutral American economists, you would see they pretty much dovetail with the views expressed here.
> 
> If you have an opposing view, backed up by analysis and logic, lay it out instead of nitpicking.




points taken Wayne,

But i am still quite fed up with all the so called US experts in here chucking around a couple reports and calling it fact. I am entitled to my own opinion, this is a public forum like you once told me.

Cheers


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> points taken Wayne,
> 
> But i am still quite fed up with all the so called US experts in here chucking around a couple reports and calling it fact. I am entitled to my own opinion, this is a public forum like you once told me.
> 
> Cheers




Couple of reports, in the last four years I have read and reread no less than nine books from US authors on their economic situation.


----------



## wayneL

>Apocalypto< said:


> points taken Wayne,
> 
> But i am still quite fed up with all the so called US experts in here chucking around a couple reports and calling it fact. I am entitled to my own opinion, this is a public forum like you once told me.
> 
> Cheers



Of course, but you want your opinion yet seek to stifle someone else's. Do you see the duplicity in that? And you haven't actually expressed any opinion, apart from criticizing anothers.

Also, the forum exists at the largess of the domain owner. He has built a really good community here by having a few rules in place. Opinion is to be backed by some sort of analysis, otherwise we end up like HC.

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> Of course, but you want your opinion yet seek to stifle someone else's. Do you see the duplicity in that? And you haven't actually expressed any opinion, apart from criticizing anothers.
> 
> Also, the forum exists at the largess of the domain owner. He has built a really good community here by having a few rules in place. Opinion is to be backed by some sort of analysis, otherwise we end up like HC.
> 
> Cheers




My winge is over!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Couple of reports, in the last four years I have read and reread no less than nine books from US authors on their economic situation.




Good for u explod. I hope you got a lot out of it.

What i would really like to know is if u have no idea about short term movements then how do u know if the market has turned or not? If u can gauge supply and demand in a way, ok like Jim Rogers can, what would be some examples of signs?

My report banter was just from my personal dislike for them.

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

wayneL said:


> . Opinion is to be backed by some sort of analysis, otherwise we end up like HC.
> 
> Cheers




I don't see much analysis backing up opinions on this thread of late. Just cutting and pasting or repetition of other "gurus" opinions, to justify their own decisions and opinions. That's why this thread is of little interest to some posters. Just telling it how I see it.

Totally agree with Apocalyto's observation here

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

wavepicker said:


> I don't see much analysis backing up opinions on this thread of late. Just cutting and pasting or repetition of other "gurus" opinions, to justify their own decisions and opinions. That's why this thread is of little interest to some posters. Just telling it how I see it.
> 
> Totally agree with Apocalyto's observation here
> 
> Cheers



Let's see some analysis from you then. If you disagree with the general view of those here, I am sure there are plenty who would like to hear it.


----------



## wavepicker

wayneL said:


> Let's see some analysis from you then. If you disagree with the general view of those here, I am sure there are plenty who would like to hear it.




My problem is not with the general view here Wayne. It's the lack of analysis behind their view. 

Cutting and pasting the view of a guru from some other  Gold site is hardly ones own analysis to back up their opinion.

For the record, my opinion is almost always backed up by analysis(right or wrong). ATM I have no opinion on Gold. My beef is about the lack of analysis behind most of the posts on Gold. 

As such I can't be bothered any more


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> I don't see much analysis backing up opinions on this thread of late. Just cutting and pasting or repetition of other "gurus" opinions, to justify their own decisions and opinions. That's why this thread is of little interest to some posters. Just telling it how I see it.
> 
> Totally agree with Apocalyto's observation here
> 
> Cheers





I think your observation a bit unfair, afterall ASF is first and formost a discussion, not high tech analysis.   I am sure there are many,other threads of little interest to many as well.

We are not islands, it is from others and the interactions taking place that we learn, picking up bits from others (gurus) gives fresh input.

It is really a gold bugs thread after all and greed driven to a great extent.  My Great Grandfather and two of his brothers came from England for the gold rush, so a bit in my blood too.

Most of the posters on this thread are sincerly trying to contribute something for mutual benefit.    You have the background and expertise to do so too Wavepicker.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> I think your observation a bit unfair, afterall ASF is first and formost a discussion, not high tech analysis.   I am sure there are many,other threads of little interest to many as well.
> 
> We are not islands, it is from others and the interactions taking place that we learn, picking up bits from others (gurus) gives fresh input.
> 
> It is really a gold bugs thread after all and greed driven to a great extent.  My Great Grandfather and two of his brothers came from England for the gold rush, so a bit in my blood too.
> 
> Most of the posters on this thread are sincerly trying to contribute something for mutual benefit.    You have the background and expertise to do so too Wavepicker.





Wasn't just refering to TA explod. Some of the fundemental analysis posts from the likes of Ducati and Rederob used to make a few years back, to support their views was very informative,excellent, and original .


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Good for u explod. I hope you got a lot out of it.
> 
> What i would really like to know is if u have no idea about short term movements then how do u know if the market has turned or not? If u can gauge supply and demand in a way, ok like Jim Rogers can, what would be some examples of signs?
> 
> My report banter was just from my personal dislike for them.
> 
> Cheers





That is not correct, I use charting analysis to get in and out of trades and can see some things in the short term.   In my view gold is very different, it is not just driven by market sentiment or easily examined fundamentals.  Gold is an international (whole world) item so is pushed around by a multitude of factors.   At the moment we can see a general trend which is strong and has been for 6 years now.  A complete change of such a trend will be reasonably clear to read by those following closely.

A clear sign to me would be a proper turn around in the US economy and a commensurate rise in the value of the US dollar.   Both of which look unlikely at the moment.    Short term with gold, as I said before, too much in it to tell and for me not necessary anyway.

Cheers.


----------



## cuttlefish

Given the choice of a tide chart or a wave bouy I'd take the tide chart.  But I'd prefer both.

In the long term the high water mark and the low water mark move in line with the fundamentals that drive the markets.  In the short term the set waves and intermediate waves create distortions that make it difficult to pick the exact top and bottom of the tide and can confuse the observer as to the actual direction of the underlying tide.

Figure out what the moon is doing and you will prevail in the longer term, but only if you have positioned yourself in such a way as to ride out and manage the shorter term fluctuations.  Some focus on making mileage out of the short term. Some are prepared to sacrifice some of the short term to try to make mileage out of the longer term.

Owning gold has never been a particularly bad idea though its not always been a great idea either.  Owning paper currencies has frequently been a very bad idea.  Owning property has usually been a good idea but has occasionally been a catastrophically bad idea  - when governments change property law (e.g. communism preempting individual property rights) - or entire systems of governments change or are overthrown (the numerous occupations and invasions over history).

If I had to bet which was more likely to be around in 2000 years - the social acceptance of gold as a valuable good, vs, the social acceptance of the USD as a valuable good (and the US nation even existing), I know which one I'd back.  

The US does have a lot of debt, this debt has expanded massively and exponentially since the abolition of the gold standard by Nixon.  It seems untenable that this can continue forever unabated.  

That doesn't mean it won't continue for many years to come. 

But recently, with subprime, the level of malinvestment of this enormous debt seems to be at an extreme point. And at the same time, the questions being raised about the regulation of debt in general mean that it might be prudent to have a proportion of investments in an instrument that is immutable, portable and that falls outside of governments, currency and counterparty risk.


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> Wasn't just refering to TA explod. Some of the fundemental analysis posts from the likes of Ducati and Rederob used to make a few years back, to support their views was very informative,excellent, and original .



There are two keys:
First, the direction.
Second, that you picked it.
Investing in the debate might be intellectually stimulating, but investing money is really what it's about.
As I invest long term, the short term direction of the market is not at issue.
I have pared my portfolio to 30 equities and 10 have some exposure to gold (3 are pure gold plays).
Recent years have been more conducive to gold increasing in price than vice versa.
Much is due to gold being priced in USD terms and, for the many reasons cut and pasted into this thread, there is general acceptance that the US economy is not in good shape.
Keeping this post brief, if you feel the US economy is levelling off and about to head firmly north again, get out of gold now (or short it to the bejeebers).
I personally can't see the US market back on an even keel within 12 months, perhaps 2 years.
But the US market is just one of dozens of gold price drivers, so even when the US economy is back on its feet, it doesn't mean you dump gold.  It does mean you should seriously evaluate why you still hold it.
Wavepicker and I do not agree on a number of market trends, and arguing the toss solves nothing.
Give it time.


----------



## MRC & Co

cuttlefish said:


> If I had to bet which was more likely to be around in 2000 years - the social acceptance of gold as a valuable good, vs, the social acceptance of the USD as a valuable good (and the US nation even existing), I know which one I'd back.




Be very careful of this.

Telling someone invested through a large period of the 1900s of the bullish bias of the stockmarket and average compounded returns would not have helped, considering over numerous decades it barely moved (non-inclusive of dividends).  

Your investment life will be very short in comparison to historical trends and you could get caught in a rut period (perhaps now for those in stocks "waiting" for them to climb back up).  

Do you have a positive expectancy for your investments explod? :

Explod is following a long-term fundamental trend, if he sees fundamentals change, I am sure he will get out.  Until then, I dont see T/A dictating the long-term trend of gold so there is no need to understand the movements of the short-term.  Like global indices will not recover over the long-term until profits begin to rise again and stability is seen, gold will not dramatically fall until inflation and fears (and their respective effects on USD, IRP, PPP) have subsided.  At least on a fundamental basis  

Pretty simple, correct me if Im wrong.


----------



## wavepicker

rederob said:


> There are two keys:
> First, the direction.
> Second, that you picked it.
> Investing in the debate might be intellectually stimulating, but investing money is really what it's about.
> As I invest long term, the short term direction of the market is not at issue.
> I have pared my portfolio to 30 equities and 10 have some exposure to gold (3 are pure gold plays).
> Recent years have been more conducive to gold increasing in price than vice versa.
> Much is due to gold being priced in USD terms and, for the many reasons cut and pasted into this thread, there is general acceptance that the US economy is not in good shape.
> Keeping this post brief, if you feel the US economy is levelling off and about to head firmly north again, get out of gold now (or short it to the bejeebers).
> I personally can't see the US market back on an even keel within 12 months, perhaps 2 years.
> But the US market is just one of dozens of gold price drivers, so even when the US economy is back on its feet, it doesn't mean you dump gold.  It does mean you should seriously evaluate why you still hold it.
> Wavepicker and I do not agree on a number of market trends, and arguing the toss solves nothing.
> Give it time.




Rederob, my comments were not in refernece to Gold, the US economy or the USD. Although I disagree with you on all the counts you mentioned except that on the US economy, my point was that at least you argue your points much more cosntructively than what I have seen here. Not just  a couple of cheap comments thrown in hereor there.

Just getting back to the subject of Gold and the USD, you have no idea what I am all about, how I trade.  In the months and years ahead you will see that my remarks will be proven correct and as such you will have to revisist your analysis. BTW I am, short Gold for the short term at least.

Good Trading.


----------



## wayneL

wavepicker said:


> Rederob, my comments were not in refernece to Gold, the US economy or the USD. Although I disagree with you on all the counts you mentioned except that on the US economy, my point was that at least you argue your points much more cosntructively than what I have seen here. Not just  a couple of* cheap comments* thrown in hereor there.
> 
> Just getting back to the subject of Gold and the USD, you have no idea what I am all about, how I trade.  In the months and years ahead you will see that my remarks will be proven correct and as such you will have to revisist your analysis. BTW I am, short Gold for the short term at least.
> 
> Good Trading.




Speaking of cheap comments, we've seen nothing from you recently. No analysis, opinion of any discernible flavour, just cheap shots. You've added nothing recently but acrimony.

I suggest a change of style.


----------



## Whiskers

Well, looks like gold has lost it's shine for awhile.

I suspect that because the US is pulling out all stops to kill the credit crisis off pretty quickly, it will not revisit 1000 again for a at least a few months, probably late in the year when the markets have settled and supply (or lack of) becomes an issue.

Some had mentioned silver as their signal 'canary'. I reckon the ultimate precious metal, Rhodium was the canary leading the way lately and wouldn't be surprised if it leads another dip down.


----------



## Kauri

as the long-term fundementalists point out there is every reason for Gold to just keep on going one way... up... which, if you pick your timeframe, is almost guaranteed in any assett class,... however, in the present where I dwell, I see the *possibility *of the shiny metal heading down to the mid-low 800's, and am/have been positioned that way since Maxwells hammer.. with the psychological and tech level of 900 being the main stumbling block... 
 not a prediction, just a (now risk-free) tradable possibility..  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## cuttlefish

MRC & Co said:


> Be very careful of this.
> 
> Telling someone invested through a large period of the 1900s of the bullish bias of the stockmarket and average compounded returns would not have helped, considering over numerous decades it barely moved (non-inclusive of dividends).
> 
> Your investment life will be very short in comparison to historical trends and you could get caught in a rut period (perhaps now for those in stocks "waiting" for them to climb back up).




Yeah fair enough, I agree that having a 2000 year bullish view may be nice in theory but not particularly useful for making money over a lifetime.

I'm working on a one to two year view that is bullish on gold.  I'd certainly re-examine that if I felt it was pretty clear all the subprime land mines had been uncovered - that would be when all banks and institutions holding questionable debt had written it down properly and the credit markets started to show signs of life again.  I think we're a way off from that.  

In the short term the liquidity crisis is likely to cause a flight to cash and maybe we're heading into the cash stage of the cycle - which true to form is following the commodity stage just as the economic clock tells us it should.

This could cause say 6 months of churning in relation to gold as there are competing money flows (strong money flows out of gold as a commodity, a start of money flows into gold as a currency). Normally after the flight to cash and the final capitulation stage of other markets including the associated bankruptcies etc. there would be the slow return of investment out of cash and a slow return of confidence and the whole cycle would kick off again. 

The only issue I have is that this time and with this cycle, it is cash itself, and the creation of it, that has caused the problem.  In the past the 'malinvestment' was in a particular market sector (dot com, housing construction, etc.) but this time the mal investment seems to have been the actual creation of credit itself.  That means the 'safety' of cash in past times of the final stage of the economic cycle is in question imo.  Similarly the safety of the institutions responsible for protecting the cash is also in question (i.e. the banks).  

This is why I'm still bulllish for gold over a 1 to 2 year timeframe.  In the short term we might see a flight to cash out of commodities (gold being treated as a commodity), but then a little further, a flight out of cash and particular the USD into gold, which will happen very quickly if a couple of major banks blow up or instead of blowing up they are saved by massive cash creation exercises by central banks.

I see value in some of the new gold producers even if gold comes off another 5 %to 10%.  I also saw/see the opportunity for even greater value appearing in the short term if there is continued sell down of some of these stocks as a result of a liquidity squeeze.  (margin calls, opes debarcles, property lvrs deteriorating causing equity loan recalls, rate rises causing people and institutions to sell up stocks, commodities to reduce other debts etc.). 

I debated a few months ago trying to trade down a significant portion of my position to capitalise on this but didn't do it. Instead I've been reallocating to greater value where I see it and also into less risky profile stocks (no debt producers with proven reserves or high quality near producers with good cash positions). I wouldn't risk trading significantly out of the bullish gold position even for a short period, because I see a risk at any time of a series of big credit blowups out of the blue that could kill the value of the USD very quickly.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cuttlefish said:


> I debated a few months ago trying to trade down a significant portion of my position to capitalise on this but didn't do it. Instead I've been reallocating to greater value where I see it and also into less risky profile stocks (no debt producers with proven reserves or high quality near producers with good cash positions). I wouldn't risk trading significantly out of the bullish gold position even for a short period, because I see a risk at any time of a series of big credit blowups out of the blue that could kill the value of the USD very quickly.




Excellent post there seafood , I have to concur. I'm used to the 2 steps forward, one step back cycle of gold, & always debating whether to sell at the peaks & wait for the next bottom to re-enter. Waiting again, but will the next black swan take gold with it too initially?


----------



## Young Gun

I appreciate everyones anlaysis and views on the short - medium - long term view on gold however at times I feel that everyone is way too short term minded. 

For example - Gold has lost about $25 over the past day people are jumping to the conclusion the gold price is going to head south of $800. Yes its true that gold has weakend from the hights of $955 prior to the recent all time highs, but in essence you have to remeber that American markets were stable last night and the price of oil fell almost 4%. 

This has nothing to do with golds fundamentals but other contributing factors that peg to the price of gold and influence. At the moment we have only really seen falls of aprox 3% from the rebound of $950. Why is it because we have fluctuations like this people predict the end of the run or even the short to medium term run? Do you really expect gold to bounce right back to all time highs after falling 10% ?


----------



## explod

Young Gun said:


> I appreciate everyones anlaysis and views on the short - medium - long term view on gold however at times I feel that everyone is way too short term minded.




Aaaarrrh, Young Gun,    insightful and refreshing



And it gives one a great opportunity to have some time away from the screen.

cheers.


----------



## Kauri

Young Gun said:


> I appreciate everyones anlaysis and views on the short - medium - long term view on gold however at times I feel that everyone is way too short term minded.
> 
> For example - Gold has lost about $25 over the past day people are jumping to the conclusion the gold price is going to head south of $800. Yes its true that gold has weakend from the hights of $955 prior to the recent all time highs, but in essence you have to remeber that American markets were stable last night and the price of oil fell almost 4%.
> 
> This has nothing to do with golds fundamentals but other contributing factors that peg to the price of gold and influence. At the moment we have only really seen falls of aprox 3% from the rebound of $950. Why is it because we have fluctuations like this people predict the end of the run or even the short to medium term run? Do you really expect gold to bounce right back to all time highs after falling 10% ?




  Rather than jumping to conclusions over the recent$25 fall, some people actually saw the possibility around 2 weeks back when a hammer formed at $1000 plus, (and posted it), and went short.. now gold has fallen over $100 (on current price), for mine I don't care particularly if it was fundementals, technicals, or the phase of the moon that caused the recent set-back, it happened, and was tradable... as has been the recent drop from the $950's.(also posted).
As I trade spot via CFD's I find it best to have short-term trades, as going for the long-term can prove to be expensive due to the interest charges incurred, and the pain is increased when the position goes against you and you are servicing a losing position.
  Just my idle ramblings...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Young Gun

Someone 2 weeks ago posted about the possiblity of a pull back from record all time highs, supported by a candle? Wow he must be physic lol 

I am not having a go at anyone , but just take into consideration the broader context. Its pretty hard for gold to rally when oil and base metals are going against it in the short term. 

I trade CFDs also and i know where you are comming from with this.  I appreciate all the analysis just asking for a bit of perspective. In reality i dont mind short to medium term predictions, i just hate and cant stand people using short term or daily prices of gold dictate long term trends. Long term trends and fundamentals dont build overnight but take time, in saying this these dont change overnight (generally).


----------



## MRC & Co

Just on Kauris point, hammers and shooting stars have been terriffic lately in changing short-term trends.  

Kauri, however, your hammer did not close lower, or at least I cannot spot a black body on it.  More of a doji perhaps than a hammer?

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

MRC & Co said:


> Just on Kauris point, hammers and shooting stars have been terriffic lately in changing short-term trends.
> 
> Kauri, however, your hammer did not close lower, or at least I cannot spot a black body on it. More of a doji perhaps than a hammer?
> 
> Cheers




  Agreed, the confusion is that when I posted it the day was not complete and at that stage it was a hammer, but for me the size of the days range and the close position was ultimately more important.



Young Gun said:


> Someone 2 weeks ago posted about the possiblity of a pull back from record all time highs, supported by a candle? Wow he must be physic lol
> 
> I am not having a go at anyone , but just take into consideration the broader context. Its pretty hard for gold to rally when oil and base metals are going against it in the short term.
> 
> I trade CFDs also and i know where you are comming from with this.  I appreciate all the analysis just asking for a bit of perspective. In reality i dont mind short to medium term predictions, i just hate and cant stand people using short term or daily prices of gold dictate long term trends. Long term trends and fundamentals dont build overnight but take time, in saying this these dont change overnight (generally).




  The candle, supported by my basic take of E/W, supported by an oscillator, supported by a MTF trend identification, supported by another trend change indicator plotted on the chart, supported by Fibs, supported by a contrarian view of "everyone and thier dog is saying Gold has broken $1000, next stop $1500)...  hey possibly psychotic as opposed to psychic??
 You are obviously long gold, for the long term. What did you use to determine an entry... in the current short-term downtrend.. a bottom maybe??? On what timeframe..??
If the position goes against you but doesn't take your stop how long are you prepared (seeing as you have a longterm view), to hold and finance the position, allowing that the interest charges can over 6 months actually double your max loss??
My trades are _not calling the longer trend_, I use (with Gold),the dailies to establish a likely direction and then use the hourlies to trade in, when you get it right the RR seems to be better, for me. Longer term, via CFD's, I'm not brave enough for that. (In FX I use the dailies and hourlies to establish direction and trade 5min charts)..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

MRC & Co said:


> Just on Kauris point, hammers and shooting stars have been terriffic lately in changing short-term trends.
> 
> Kauri, however, your hammer did not close lower, or at least I cannot spot a black body on it.  More of a doji perhaps than a hammer?
> 
> Cheers




MRC I reckon the colour of the hammer is not important. For me it was a marginal hammer, but certainly a spinning top and an evening star... a more definite top signal.



Young Gun said:


> Someone 2 weeks ago posted about the possiblity of a pull back from record all time highs, supported by a candle? Wow he must be physic lol




Don't you believe in candle formations Young Gun?

Candlestick's physic?... no. But I could talk to you about something involving the cycles and phases of the moon etc... a bit like what Trader Paul uses.

For me and as kauri pointed out, they are pretty good indicators when you interpret everything correctly. Although I mostly work off fundamentals, along with other not psychic, but more intuitive skills, they have signaled me to get out of trades before a predictable rout set in.

Speaking of fundamentals, I have been less bearish than most re the stocks of late, even slightly bullish. My basis for that is I don't think the carnage from the 'credit crunch' is going to be as bad as many fear, this time around. 

Consequently, I have advocated for awhile that the USD will strengthen a bit in the near future and that equates to some easing in demand for gold.


----------



## cuttlefish

Uncle Festivus said:


> Waiting again, but will the next black swan take gold with it too initially?




Cheers, I guess it depends on what kind of swan it is lol. I guess its likely that short term credit squeeze events will reflect in a continuing exit to cash from physical gold and gold stocks.  But an event that rattles global faith in the US dollar might be different.  We don't know whats still out there, or if anything is. If we go another 6 months without a major US fund or bank collapsing or needing bailout then maybe we're out of the woods on the black swan stuff and the calamity event has been avoided. (My gut say's its unlikely to be that simple but I've no facts to back this up).  

But even if things run relatively smoothly I don't see it saving the medium downtrend in the USD because until there is a turnaround in the US economy they will continue to inject money into the system to try to stimulate it.

I'm hoping for a return in the form of yield within the reasonably near future on some of my gold stock investments and if that comes through price won't really matter anyway, but obviously bullish sentiment coming into the sector would be nice.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Consequently, I have advocated for awhile that the USD will strengthen a bit in the near future and that equates to some easing in demand for gold.




Interesting you say that, Wavepicker is of the same opinion but there dose not seem to be a reason put forward as to why?

Can you give a take on this rationale?


----------



## Young Gun

I do use candlesticks, I wasnt having a pot shot at anyone. I guess I am primarily just venting my frustation at people posting negative sentitment because of 1 or 2 negative days. This is worse in the media. Every second day you read a differing view based on 1 days price action.


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Waiting again, but will the next black swan take gold with it too initially?




UBS will be hitting the press soon with a Qtr1 loss of something like CHR 12 Bln hit, and a possible raising of CHF 15Bln.. a little black swannette?  



Young Gun said:


> I do use candlesticks, I wasnt having a pot shot at anyone. I guess I am primarily just venting my frustation at people posting negative sentitment because of 1 or 2 negative days. This is worse in the media. Every second day you read a differing view based on 1 days price action.




 Read the thread, the fundemental bulls have run with it for weeks, a rare contrary view backed by analysis and... ah well.. must learn to conform and trot with the shheeepp..  :sheep: ..   
 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Better plunge than the 21st of March happening right now . A clean up of positions left over from the Japanese EOFY perhaps , but a dip is on once more . 913's so far , if pre 900 support is there it should be showing up by now , I had 912 at the higher end of my range , been out a buck before .

PS ..... thinking that it would retest the 912 for a DB . Had possibilities all the way to 887 if I remember rightly , don't have the calculation sheet I used in front of me at present .


----------



## barrett

Young Gun said:


> Someone 2 weeks ago posted about the possiblity of a pull back from record all time highs, supported by a candle? Wow he must be physic lol



Make sure you tell us all the next time gold makes a major interim top or bottom:


----------



## barrett

I don't short gold, but I'm still not buying.  My technicals are stuck in remedial class.. price patterns and volume. I take it minute by minute.  The sellers are still in control.  Looking back at this bull, a 50% retracement of the recent 9-month move as Kauri suggested would not be unusual, even with the long-term fundamentals in tact.  One could argue the CRB looks to be part way through a similar 50-62% retracement.

For those following the performance of the juniors here and abroad.. Here is something I found on Kitco, the ratio of an index of US-listed junior gold and silver stocks to the HUI, graphed along with the S&P500.  Most interestingly, the periods of serious outperformance of the juniors relative to majors (shaded rectangles) only seem to occur when the broader equity market is rising.  The analyst puts this down to the fact that small emotion-driven retail investors make up a much bigger proportion of the potential buyers in these small companies - and we all know, and can see below, that those retail investors like getting sucked in at sharemarket tops. 

An exception was in mid 2002, when majors and juniors were both falling substantially but the juniors fell by less.

Another point from the graph is how suddenly the periods of junior outperformance tend to happen, meaning research and decisions must be well prepared in advance.

The analysis was done by Przemyslaw Radomski. I didn't find the rest of his article very interesting but it's here if anyone wants to refer to it,   
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Radomski/mar312008.html


----------



## cuttlefish

interesting chart barret.  I've marked a few other spots on it where it looks like for some shorter periods the HUI juniors have risen significantly counter to a decline in the S&P.  Also as you mentioned as well its interesting to observe the spiky/volatile nature of the HUI junior runs.  It would be interesting to see this sort of comparison over a longer time frame to include multiple macro bull/bear cycles - particularly to see if there are consistent patterns of behaviour entering and leaving the bear phases.


----------



## ithatheekret

Looking at the Junior HUI , would it not suggest that the next run up had better well breach the last peaks and continue , unless it was to start looking like a HS pattern formation , by say mid 2009/maybe 2010  ?

Just a glance ob.


----------



## cuttlefish

Kauri said:


> Read the thread, the fundemental bulls have run with it for weeks, a rare contrary view backed by analysis and... ah well.. must learn to conform and trot with the shheeepp..  :sheep: ..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri





Kauri - its been interesting to observe your trading and you're clearly doing a good job of trading what you see without bias, which is the skill of someone operating in the shorter timeframes.  I also find it informative to observe your approach.  When the technical view appears to give signals which you seem to be good at picking, it also gives food for thought for those with a fundamental view to re-examine the factors that influence that.

I'm happy for the two different approaches to co-exist.  There are some on here that clearly have goals of wealth protection and/or wealth creation through investment, and others with the goal of income generation through trading.   (and probably some that are generating income through trading that they are then investing, and also some that are possibly trading amounts of capital that others would consider 'wealth' and wouldn't feel comfortable risking allocating to trading positions).

But if you have a view that gold and gold related assets provide an element of wealth protection (and/or opportunity for wealth creation) then you won't risk trading out of those assets back into cash as part of shorter term position taking, as this creates a perceived risk exposure that defeats the goal of wealth protection.  (Thats not to say there might not be some proportionate allocation/deallocation around asset classes based on shorter or medium term views.)

Similarly a trader that doesn't take profits on the short term movements by swapping out of positions back to cash when the direction changes are defeating their primary goal which is cash income generation.


----------



## wavepicker

Whiskers said:


> Consequently, I have advocated for awhile that the USD will strengthen a bit in the near future and that equates to some easing in demand for gold.






explod said:


> Interesting you say that, Wavepicker is of the same opinion but there dose not seem to be a reason put forward as to why?
> 
> Can you give a take on this rationale?




Refer to the following post I made a while ago:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=274158&postcount=3716


----------



## Trembling Hand

There goes $900


----------



## wavepicker

Trembling Hand said:


> There goes $900




Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about


----------



## josjes

wavepicker said:


> Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about



Bring it on $850 I will gladly scoop in for the long term.


----------



## ithatheekret

wavepicker said:


> Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about




Yep , 912 failure off a buck again , so I covered in the 888s .

888 retest should be on the cards too .


I got my days beef jerky , must be time for bear steaks now


----------



## Kauri

Gold/$US index is always interesting... I thunk..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about




Not too much to think about.  Current price of gold is still $200 an ounce above where it was 12 months ago.    The previous correction in 06 was 50% Funny Wavepicker, you only seem to emerge when you have a "told you so" story to tell.   Rarely anything constructive and useful to add to the debate.

You have never given a satisfactory explanation of why and when the US$ is going to recover.  Would be good to hear that.

The lull in trading from the Asian close to European open often precedes a recovery in the gold price.   But I do not claim to know, just something that happens more often than not.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Not too much to think about.  Current price of gold is still $200 an ounce above where it was 12 months ago.    The previous correction in 06 was 50% Funny Wavepicker, you only seem to emerge when you have a "told you so" story to tell.




Now your making things up explod.  That's simply not true or fair, or did you not read my last post to you.

I understand your emotion as Gold is falling back, I have been there too. I am still long term bullish like you and consider this a buying opportunity in the months ahead.


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> You have never given a satisfactory explanation of why and when the US$ is going to recover.  Would be good to hear that.
> 
> The lull in trading from the Asian close to European open often precedes a recovery in the gold price.   But I do not claim to know, just something that happens more often than not.



I posted some time back that if all these debts in USD were being called in, it would have to be bullish for the dollar. If those debts are being converted into US treasuries, that's probably even more bullish. I don't know how those things work, but that's my hunch.

850 looks a dead certainty.

I think oil looks like it could break down about 10% or so, and that's another weight.


----------



## explod

chops_a_must said:


> I posted some time back that if all these debts in USD were being called in, it would have to be bullish for the dollar. If those debts are being converted into US treasuries, that's probably even more bullish. I don't know how those things work, but that's my hunch.
> 
> 850 looks a dead certainty.
> 
> I think oil looks like it could break down about 10% or so, and that's another weight.




Maybe, but if you look back to January's consolidation, should have fairly solid support at 885.

Not sure myself about the dollar, others may know.  All I can go by is that the $US index downtrend is till intact.  And though it is up .4 of a % tonight it is all bad for US treasuries.  That is the reason why I would like Wavepickers take on it.   From what he posts here of course it gives the perception that he may not know either.  

At least Chops, you have offered something to ponder.

cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Now your making things up explod.  That's simply not true or fair, or did you not read my last post to you.
> 
> I understand your emotion as Gold is falling back, I have been there too. I am still long term bullish like you and consider this a buying opportunity in the months ahead.




If you are referring to our pm's I do not recall such an explanation.   I in fact do not have one and it has not been of concern , only the trend.   

As far as the gold price drop is concerned it in no way is of a concern, the correction is healthy and has been the normal course throughout the bullrun from 2001.

However I am most interested in the views of the $US dollar index direction as this does have a huge impact on the gold price.

From my take the repatriation of US dollars will be merely a passing through to other assets that have tangible value, one of which will be gold.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> I would like Wavepickers take on it.   From what he posts here of course it gives the perception that he may not know either.
> 
> cheers




Explod, Fundementally I have no absolutely reasons either. However technically a descent correction has been on the cards for a while. I had no idea when, but the chart I posted in this thread a week or so ago gave resonable evidence that it was in the wind:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=274158&postcount=3716

However I don't seem to have had any response re these observation made by Apocalypto and myself. Instead we are attacked because we make some comments very true with regard to this thread but against the maisntreem thinking of most posters. 

Instead all that Wayne L and others are hellbent on doing is pulling my posts, which contained no offensive language levelled against anyone, but rather in self defense against comments made against me. 

It's seems though for some it's a matter of "Do not as I do, but as I say".


----------



## wayneL

Wavepicker,

I didn't pull your post, someone else did... deservedly so I might add.

If you'd like to stick to analysis, that would be good. Please review the code of conduct.


----------



## Kauri

I hear, *anecdotally*, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben, whilst Eurozone is seen still carrying a lot of trouble yet to surface (apart hopefully from uberbank which should have cleaned the decks today with the new pilot at the helm). Hence a steady inflow into the $US.. also, apart from the UK, the eurozone CB don't seem too keen on bailing, leaving the likes of uberbank to go to market. The inflows this year into the US, posted previously, certainly seem to back that up. As I am not a fundementalists fundement I have no idea, but it sounds good..   
 Gold with all of the coupling and decoupling apparently going on, enough to make Casanovas eyes water, seems to mirror the $US.. so does the $ lead gold, or gold lead the dollar, is it co-incidental, or is it....  ??
 What are the lease rates at today, what affect can we expect from them??
 Is the $ still seen ultimately as a safe haven currency??
 Are the PPP/PPT still actively selling or are they now taking a well earned breather??
 What will happen if the Indians decide living in sin is better than getting married??
  Pondering
..............Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> I hear, *anecdotally*, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben, whilst Eurozone is seen still carrying a lot of trouble yet to surface (apart hopefully from uberbank which should have cleaned the decks today with the new pilot at the helm). Hence a steady inflow into the $US.. also, apart from the UK, the eurozone CB don't seem too keen on bailing, leaving the likes of uberbank to go to market. The inflows this year into the US, posted previously, certainly seem to back that up. As I am not a fundementalists fundement I have no idea, but it sounds good..
> Gold with all of the coupling and decoupling apparently going on, enough to make Casanovas eyes water, seems to mirror the $US.. so does the $ lead gold, or gold lead the dollar, is it co-incidental, or is it....  ??
> What are the lease rates at today, what affect can we expect from them??
> Is the $ still seen ultimately as a safe haven currency??
> Are the PPP/PPT still actively selling or are they now taking a well earned breather??
> What will happen if the Indians decide living in sin is better than getting married??
> Pondering
> ..............Kauri




Some of your answers just posted on Bloomberg:



> Dollar Tumble Wrecks Forecasts; Deutsche Bank Lowers (Update2)
> 
> By Ron Harui and Aaron Pan
> 
> April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Dollar bulls are in retreat after the currency's biggest quarterly decline against the euro since 2004 and the largest slump in almost a decade versus the yen.
> 
> The dollar will likely gain 1.5 percent to $1.55 per euro and remain little changed near 100 yen by the end of June, according to the median estimate of 40 analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. At the start of 2008, they expected the dollar to strengthen to $1.48 per euro and reach 110 yen.
> 
> Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest foreign-exchange trader, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut their dollar estimates last month as global credit market losses climbed above $200 billion and reports signaled the U.S. economy may be shrinking. Private foreign investors sold a net $38.2 billion in U.S. securities in January, the most since September, the Treasury Department said March 17.
> 
> ``We now view the U.S. economy as having slipped into recession while the rest of the world slows more modestly,'' said John Horner, a currency strategist in Sydney for Frankfurt- based Deutsche Bank. That scenario ``argues for further dollar weakness,'' he said.
> 
> U.S. growth likely fell to 0.2 percent last quarter, compared with 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2007, according to the median forecast of 85 economists and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.
> 
> Relative Rates
> 
> The greenback tumbled 7.6 percent against the euro last quarter to $1.5788. It slid 10.8 percent to 99.69 yen, the most since falling the same amount in the third quarter of 1999, as a decline in stocks from New York to Tokyo and credit market losses led investors to sell high-yielding assets funded with low-interest loans in Japan. The dollar traded at $1.5727 per euro and 99.74 yen at 7:09 a.m. in London.
> 
> The Bank of Japan's benchmark rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 2.25 percent in the U.S. and 4 percent for the European Central Bank. The rate in Switzerland, another source of funds for so-called carry trades, is 2.75 percent.
> 
> ``We hold a bearish dollar outlook,'' said Thanos Papasavvas, London-based head of currency management at Investec Asset Management. ``It's impossible to forecast where the bottom is going to be.''
> 
> Investec, which manages the equivalent of $65 billion, decided on March 28 to keep betting against the dollar, Papasavvas said.
> 
> The dollar fell last quarter against the 16 most actively- traded currencies except the Canadian dollar, South Korean won and South African rand. It declined the most against the Swiss franc, depreciating 12.4 percent, and gained 2.7 percent versus Canada's currency, 5.9 percent against the won, 17.9 percent to the rand. It was little changed per pound.
> 
> Record Low
> 
> Deutsche Bank expects the dollar will weaken this quarter to $1.60 per euro, surpassing the $1.5903 reached March 17, the lowest since the single European currency began trading in 1999. A Bloomberg survey in January showed the bank predicted the dollar would rise to $1.43 by yesterday from $1.4589.
> 
> Royal Bank of Scotland in Edinburgh, the fourth-biggest foreign-exchange trader, forecasts the dollar will trade at $1.57 per euro by June 30, after the currency exceeded its previous estimate of $1.52 by March 31.
> 
> ``There are great concerns about additional unrealized losses on subprime loans, the size of which we can't reasonably forecast,'' said Hiroaki Hoshi, who oversees the equivalent of about $5.7 billion as a senior fund manager at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Once these are realized, the dollar will fall,'' he said.
> 
> Slowdown Spreads
> 
> Banks, brokers and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses, New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted last month. Government and private reports this week may show the U.S. lost jobs for a third month in March and manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace in five years, according to the median estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
> 
> The U.S. currency may strengthen as a slowdown in the world's largest economy spreads to other regions, weakening their currencies, according to London-based Barclays Capital, the fifth-biggest currency trader.
> 
> ``Global growth is recoupling to U.S. growth and other central banks will have to start to play catch-up in terms of rate cuts,'' said David Forrester, a Singapore-based currency economist at Barclays, which forecasts the dollar to gain to $1.50 per euro in three months.
> 
> The dollar has gained 2.2 percent against the pound since the Bank of England cut rates by a half-percentage point on Dec. 6 to revive growth. The pound will weaken 0.2 percent to $1.98 by June 30, according to the survey of strategists. It closed yesterday at $1.9837.
> 
> `Bad News'
> 
> Japan's yen, which gained 3.6 percent versus the euro in the first quarter, will likely appreciate 2.5 percent to 153 per euro by June 30, the survey showed.
> 
> ``There will still be most likely bad news that will come out on the global economy,'' said Stephen Jen, global head of currency research at Morgan Stanley in London. ``There's definitely a downside risk if the crisis morphs into something more extreme.''
> 
> The second-largest U.S. securities firm forecasts the dollar will appreciate to $1.55 per euro and weaken to 97 yen.
> 
> To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at apan8@bloomberg.net
> 
> Last Updated: April 1, 2008 02:20 EDT


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Some of your answers just posted on Bloomberg:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> April 1 (Bloomberg) --.
> 
> The dollar will likely gain 1.5 percent to *$1.55* per euro and remain little changed near 100 yen by the end of June, according to the median estimate of 40 analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. At the start of 2008, they expected the dollar to strengthen to $1.48 per euro and reach 110 yen.
> 
> Deutsche Bank expects the dollar will weaken this quarter to $1.60 per euro, surpassing the $1.5903 reached March 17, the lowest since the single European currency began trading in 1999. A Bloomberg survey in January showed the bank predicted the dollar would rise to $1.43 by yesterday from $1.4589.
> 
> Royal Bank of Scotland in Edinburgh, the fourth-biggest foreign-exchange trader, forecasts the dollar will trade at $1.57 per euro by June 30, after the currency exceeded its previous estimate of $1.52 by March 31.
> 
> Barclays, which forecasts the dollar to gain to $1.50 per euro in three months.
> 
> The second-largest U.S. securities firm forecasts the dollar will appreciate to $1.55 per euro and weaken to 97 yen.
Click to expand...



 an answer... looks more like Sudoku to me.. just a whole heap of _educated_ guesses correcting thier previously incorrect geesses   

  Incidentally, the Dow has crashed roughly 20% from its highs to its recent lows, and we all know of the doom, gloom, and imminent implosion that this indicates  the US faces, although the US as yet is doing a Carey in facing up to it.
 Gold has ambled gently down 14% from high to low, and yet this is only a to be expected correction... are we...mmm??
 Slowing global growth will mean softer oil, commodity, and metals prices, and for all the hype surrounding gold, it is a commodity.. is it immune...

  or not??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I agree Kauri,

I see more downside on the charts. 

refer to attached.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> I agree Kauri,
> 
> I see more downside on the charts.
> 
> refer to attached.




Cannot disagree but do think that the support a little below the current may hold.

The difference to 05 is the increased volatility.   This correction has been very swift and such momentum can gain a life of its own sometimes.

A great buying opportunity in my view.

Though there may not seem much in the Bloomberg report is is a very gloomy one for them and is why I took note and posted.

The next few days will be interesting indeed and if it plays out as you say I think the 750 or so mark could come quickly.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri said:


> I hear, *anecdotally*, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben...




mmmm.....so if that's  the worst of it for the money shufflers, maybe now they can concentrate on the real economy ie the housing bust, and the recession. So the market hasn't even started pricing in a recession yet? Short term it looks like the USD is the object of the flight to _quality _when compared to other currencies, so we play that game now .

It's just that there is a serious bout of confidence battering going on right now with the gold price (concerted capping at pivotal prices???) so could take time to recover. Numerous support off $890 tonight but with every rally it gets solidly beaten down. It all looks a bit artificial but trade it anyway?


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> mmmm.....so if that's the worst of it for the money shufflers, maybe now they can concentrate on the real economy ie the housing bust, and the recession. So the market hasn't even started pricing in a recession yet? Short term it looks like the USD is the object of the flight to _quality _when compared to other currencies, so we play that game now .
> 
> It's just that there is a serious bout of confidence battering going on right now with the gold price (concerted capping at pivotal prices???) so could take time to recover. Numerous support off $890 tonight but with every rally it gets solidly beaten down. It all looks a bit artificial but trade it anyway?




  Not necessarily the worst of it for the money shufflers, my point is that a lot of the US trouble has been outed, not all, but a lot.. how much of the rest of the worlds money shufflers have fronted up with their hits?? uberbank came out with *$19 Bln today for the Qtr*.. do you think they are orphans in Eurozone?? have the German, Dutch, Scandinavian etc.. banks all fronted up with big hits yet, are they yet to come.. do you know how close Iceland is to melting??? Armchair critics knock Uncle Ben but at least he is in there fighting, now being almost pro-active, he won't stop the recession but he is staving off a total meltdown. The Eurozone hasn't even started yet... so even though the US is a basket case, by taking on the problems it is ahead of the EZ. and that possibly means that, as worthless as there currency may be, it will possibly be less worthless than the Euro soon???
 Has the market started pricing in a recession yet... how to answer that gem with a straight face..    ..
 Artificial, capping, PPT,leasing rates, coupling-decoupling-derailing,indian wedding season.... et al... strange how these things only crop up when the POG retraces???

Have attached a chart of $US-inverted.. vs Gold.. vs DOW...  coupled up quite a rake.. a picture is worth a 1000 wagons..

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Apocalypto, could you please write dates Aussie style, _5th May_... instead of Yank style, _May 05_! :

Cos it strains my poor brain double checking when it doesn't register right.


----------



## rederob

Kauri
Your gratuitous comments about long term fundamentals the other day are as useful as the many charts I see posted that have little or no commentary of merit, or belie lay interpretation.
While we have ASXgorilla grappling with the improbable predictability induced from time series Monte Carlo analysis of any data series, we remain equally beholden to the market for every next price point.
The common sense rules of price behaviour imply that overbought markets correct, and oversold markets correct.
That clearly leaves us with determinable probabilities of most likely direction in the very near term.
That direction is still "down", with a likely support point in the $850 range.
Aside from the technicals, and USD movements, the most important price driver currently is a need for cash from the fund community.
Accordingly, the balancing act they are performing is on one hand wanting a "long" exposure and the other converting some of that to cash.
This was most evident with the very rapid liquidation of positions immediately gold peaked mid-March. 

Going back a few steps now, it is instructive to note that gold drove north several years back in an environment when US interest rates were rising.  For gold bulls to place weight on gold rising when interest rates are falling is not logical!
The common theme, however, is the disintegration of the greenback.
Will Fed interest rate cuts further debase the greenback?
Most likely.
Are more Fed interest rate cuts on the cards this year?
Very likely.

But now we find a strengthening  of the greenback, albeit marginal, in a climate not particularly conducive to consumer confidence and riven with hints of recession.
What gives?
The many backers of the greenback are weighing back in, buying up more debt, in the hope that it will prop up the dollar: A currency they are already heavily invested into.
The question presently unanswered is if their efforts will be enough to turn the tide.
My view is that they are way too early and way too optimistic.
Other threads have dealt with reasons why, so I'll stop my  brief analysis here.

On topic, the probability of gold short term declining outweighs the opposite view.
Medium term (which I refer to as the period 3-12 months out) I expect 2 things.  First, an increase of POG beyond $1150 and, secondly a consolidation into the $800s before a later rally that will commence from a base price around $900.


----------



## barrett

rederob said:


> Your gratuitous comments about long term fundamentals the other day are as useful as the many charts I see posted that have little or no commentary of merit, or belie lay interpretation.



This comment is clearly designed to 'bait' legitimate contributors on the forum.
It should be removed. 
If you people can't make your point without sledging the other members, go and get some counselling.


----------



## Whiskers

Young Gun said:


> I do use candlesticks, I wasnt having a pot shot at anyone. I guess I am primarily just venting my frustation at people posting negative sentitment because of 1 or 2 negative days. This is worse in the media. Every second day you read a differing view based on 1 days price action.






I can relate to you there Young Gun. In the XAO and Immiment and Severe Market Correction thread I have been posting some of the good news in an effort to show it wasn't all that bad.



explod said:


> Interesting you say that, Wavepicker is of the same opinion but there dose not seem to be a reason put forward as to why?
> 
> Can you give a take on this rationale?




Explod, most of my commentry was in the XAO and Immiment and Severe Market Correction Thread where from late last year I indicated that I expected the market to go more sideways to slightly up in the medium term. Basically I started out stating that the market was so oversold when it hit the first big low. This was based on fundamentals and technically corroberated by a 'proportion' calculation that I indicated I might detail one day. I should do that soon, but I have a damn computer glitch that has been annoying the bludy hell out of me and I still can't screen dump to post a chart. 

From about a month or so ago I first got a sense of 'proportion' that the plumeting USD was hurting the rest of the world probably more than the credit crunch. The fact that the Boe and ECB was not heeding the US calls to cut rates down in parallel and China was also standing steadfast and not revaluing to calls from the US, for me was the most important of all the factors that pointed to the US having to do much more than rely on monetry policy to fix the crisis. I even made the comment , I think in the Immement and severe Market Correction thread, that the US was not going to just stand back and watch all those companies and funds go bust without doing whatever they could to stop the rot. 

Consequently, those fundamental system changes will improve the US economy structure a bit to give investors some short to medium term confidence in the US economy and USD. I agree they still have big problems but they are not going to phissezlle up overnight.

All in all my sense of proportion and the rythem suggested to me that this cycle was not going to be a crash but a hick-up.  

As for the POG, you might recall I said late last year that the POG had more potential to go down than up. I was half expecting a deeper correction then, but it seems that the fear and flight to safety with a good dash of speculation kept the POG going. I suspect that fear and speculation has started to unwind all together in earnest now. But as I said earlier I don't expect the POG to crash, just loose some lustre for a few months or so before it kicks on later driven more by lack of supply than fear of a meltdown.

Kauri posted the warning anticipating a hammer candle. But as the day finished it ended up more spinning top and evening star. The evening star has been a good indicator for me as per one (then) hot stock, the RAU thread.

In summary there has been a lot of focus on what is wrong with the US economy and the fear of what if this and that collapsed, but little focus on the main macro international influences that also play a part in driving or turning the USD and consequently the flight for safety in gold.

PS. Probably a lot has to do with what people see in the numbers. As an example, recently US personal income rose a healthy bit but consumer spending didn't rise in proportion. The headlines were doom amd gloom that consumers weren't spending and the economy will get worse because they aren't spending. For me it was a good sign that people were starting to save a bit more which would give them the ability to service their existing debts better and lessen the amount of foreclosures, bankruptcies etc... which would have far stronger positive impact on the direction of the economy/markets than a bit less consumer spending would have a negative effect.


----------



## Kauri

rederob said:


> Kauri
> Your gratuitous comments about long term fundamentals the other day are as useful as the many charts I see posted that have little or no commentary of merit, or belie lay interpretation.
> 
> On topic, the probability of gold short term declining outweighs the opposite view.
> Medium term (which I refer to as the period 3-12 months out) I expect 2 things. First,* an increase of POG beyond $1150 and, secondly a consolidation into the $800s before a later rally that will commence from a base price around $900*.




 I hope you don't see this as gratuitious, but it was only _two weeks_ ago that you were telling all that gold, from $1000, would increase another $200 on Fed rate cuts, and a further $200 on blow off blues, with no marked retrace untill $1500...

 Charts may be confusing to some, for that I apologise... at the same time I also find confusing a call of gold consolidating in the $800's, particularly when Gold is flitting intraday between 895 and 905 at the time of posting... for a commodity that is priced at $900 it has to be the safest call going.. . now what reaction would I draw if I posted a chart with a $100 window for error... after only two weeks prior extolling the reasons why it would never happen.. unfortunately with charts you are nailed by the Fundementalists to a range of a couple of dollars... not $100..
  Incidentally, hedgies are selling the Euro (and doing some serious stop hunting), also commodities and metals currently... for what it is worth..
 and totoally off subject, US farmers are planning on planting their cornfields with soybeans this season.. just for a longer term heads-up.  

Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## kransky

lets not go crucifying each other because we cant predict (or verbally explain our gut feelings) what is going to happen short/med term

ffs if we could then wouldnt we be filthy rich and drunk on a yacht in the Mediterranean or something like that?

I value this and the imminent severe correction threads because of the discussions in them. Its all about seeing things from other perspectives and learning. 

When you discuss what you think is happening and the factors you think are at play and then you later see what pans out you slowly get better at being able to predict what might happen short/med term.

Considering that gold has likely recently been forced down by the powers that be and sold by funds to stay afloat and that the US Govt & Fed have shown that they are really prepared to do _anything_ to stop any financial meltdown. Also the latest economic data (GDP, jobless claims, manufacturing) is looking brighter than what has been anticipated.

So.. it seems logical (in hindsight) that gold is being killed and the $US is recovering.

Add to it that there is now a feeling that European banks will be the next to have "problems" and force down rates in Europe as its surely being hurt by the high Euro.

We need to do this sort of breakdown of what is going on so we can make money short term

??


----------



## rederob

Kauri said:


> as the long-term fundamentalists point out there is every reason for Gold to just keep on going one way... up... which, if you pick your timeframe, is almost guaranteed in any assett class,...




barrett
You are welcome to your view, and me mine.
If there was a "bait", Kauri went fishing with it first.

Kauri
My timeframes are long and terminology to boot.
A "significant" retrace for me is a near term test of support, which is in the low $700s.
I don't see that.... yet.
I never discount what is possible.
I prefer to comment on what is most probable which I pitch from my personal perspective.
My comments of 2 weeks ago can be tempered with prevailing events, most important of which has been not just a massive, unprecedented(?), intervention by the US government into a freemarket economy, but a willingness to do it again and again.
That said, I still see Fed rate cuts as an essential market measure to prop up an economy that is ailing beyond what is presently visible.
I still see the possibility of gold going to $1500 before year's end.
I don't think that's the most probable outcome, but am willing to "put it out there".
I don't believe the current (short-run) bull in gold prices has been achieved, and until that occurs I don't believe we will see support tested.  I view both as essential precursors to a sustained consolidation.


----------



## Young Gun

I cant predict what the market is doing but it seems that the most simple explanation of what is happening is the price being pushed up by small volume and then getting mulled down by 4 times the size. Trembling hand alluded to this in his blog and I think he is onto something. Seems like someone is offloading out the back door.


----------



## explod

The last 3 or 4 posts are on the ball IMHO

What I would like to add is that on the 23rd March, Kauri posted a chart indicating bottom support at US$874 from which it bounced mid way through US trade overnight.

Looking back longer term on the charts this is now a solid area.

But..................... one can never say never


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Now your making things up explod.  That's simply not true or fair, or did you not read my last post to you.
> 
> I understand your emotion as Gold is falling back, I have been there too. I am still long term bullish like you and consider this a buying opportunity in the months ahead.




Have been mulling this over and think that my comments were a bit over the top.   Your technical analysis outcomes are very good.

My problem is that having been badly burnt in the past I have to stick to simple approaches which I understand, hence trend following backed up by fundamentals and tend to write off or take little note of the tech's.

It is a pity that many good contributers/and contributions are missed due to the very different personalities, methods and experience.

Funny though, without exception just about all of us see the gold trend up in the long term.

More compassion towards each other will go a long way


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Have been mulling this over and think that my comments were a bit over the top. Your technical analysis outcomes are very good.
> 
> My problem is that having been badly burnt in the past I have to stick to simple approaches which I understand, hence trend following backed up by fundamentals and tend to write off or take little note of the tech's.
> 
> It is a pity that many good contributers/and contributions are missed due to the very different personalities, methods and experience.
> 
> Funny though, without exception just about all of us see the gold trend up in the long term.
> 
> More compassion towards each other will go a long way




I agree, it's difficult to everyone agree with each other (at least the short and medium term) when everyone have their own methods of analysising the gold market.

Likewise, I tend to place heavy fundamentals on gold with less emphasis on technical. Mainly due to the facts that i have not yet "developed" my own system for long term trend trading, and have not backtested it, verify it, simulate it, etc, etc. Maybe that I didn't want to use any of my short term trading techniques and system building knowledge into all of this, and made it all uncessary complex. hehe 

Regardless, i have no idea about the short term movement now because I have had NO system for "trading" this at all. 

If we are all agree on the long term trend of gold, I guess everyone will be looking to buy back the dips when evidences of support (where it is!) are holding.


----------



## ithatheekret

I think Kauri was spot on 912 breached 888 resistance got $10 bounce , which then retested that low three times and land at the $874 support as Kauri stated . 

I read Ks post and understand them , some you need to think about , but like myself , he's neither a bull or a bear , he states what he sees and plans a trade around it .

Like myself he is a believer in collective intelligence , from what I can gather over the period of times I have correspondended with him , which started over decade ago . ASF has allowed us to rekindle communications , and I have personally noted the growth in his skills . The man is in sync most of the time , but we all know the market is very hard to predict when over shoots follow though .

I think it's best to agree to disagree on those matters that bring up heat or friction , and debate them more eloquently , as the civilized persons we are would .


----------



## explod

First bit of weakness in the $us dollar index tonight and gold starts to rise, is this the turn.   And it is to be noted that silver crossed over first.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

ithatheekret said:


> Like myself he is a believer in collective intelligence , from what I can gather over the period of times I have correspondended with him , which started over decade ago . ASF has allowed us to rekindle communications , and I have personally noted the growth in his skills . The man is in sync most of the time , but we all know the market is very hard to predict when over shoots follow though .



And here I was thinking his budgie was the brains behind the operation :bowdown:. 

On the volume issue, does the cumulative up volume before a retrace equal the cumulative down volume on the smackdown? These guys know when to time the 'dumps' for best effect, in what is after all a relatively small market when compared to others on offer to the likes of hedgies etc. It lends itself to manipulation, you just have to 'get' the timing in sych with the 'bad guys' imp:.

A classic bull trap for the pleb shares, bargains approaching for gold stocks, keep the powder dry comrades :badass:.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> First bit of weakness in the $us dollar index tonight and gold starts to rise, is this the turn. And it is to be noted that silver crossed over first.




Yep, $US looks to be coiling... (but I am weary as coils don't always break in the direction of the trend, mostly, but not always....), gold has rallied a tad...
 I understand that the US rallied on Leemons raising being oversubscribed and uberbanks write-offs interpreted as "_the worst is behind us_", and the EZ not looking too flash going forward, but weary I am none the less...
 Although anecdotally NFP is not going to be as bad as forecast..   .. if ADP comes in less than 60k we may get a pleasant surprise..   .. or so I am told..

 One thing I am sure of is uncertainty and wide ranges.. I thunk...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

What is that line on your graph Kauri?  A daily pivot or support/resistance?  Could be an indication of which way it will break in the short-term?

What is the duration of each candle, an hour?


----------



## Kauri

MRC & Co said:


> What is that line on your graph Kauri? A daily pivot or support/resistance? Could be an indication of which way it will break in the short-term?
> 
> What is the duration of each candle, an hour?




Sorry about not labelling the timeframes..   $US is daily.. gold hourly... 

the line is a type of trend indicator I have built ... along with a couple of others I tie in with it... blue for rising.. gold.  for falling (pun not intended).. the points between are not a stop line, just an easy glance aid to the way I see the trend...  hope it's clear... my wine glass is..    ..

ADP good.. now for factory orders and Uncle Bens talk... (incidentally if they are good and boost $US there is an $800mln vanilla USD/JPY going off at 103 @1000 NY).. then the real decider... Fridays NFP.. which by Challenger and ADP should be good for the $US??? I thunk.. (not to mention Almunia et al prattling on about China and M.E.) 

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co

Kauri said:


> ...  hope it's clear... my wine glass is..    ..




LOL!

Na, I can see you have triangles (and trend channels) and the blue/gold line following trends (some kind of flipper on the top graph)  I am talking about the solid horizontal light blue line price seems to be oscillating around recently?

Cheers


----------



## barrett

How funny is this... the Silver Sammy Indicator, one for the contrarians.  On some US forum.. whenever this guy has started a negative thread on silver, it's nearly always marked the exact bottom of the market, or just before.  Scroll down to the chart in post #24 of the link below.. one false signal there, the rest are pretty much solid gold (or silver at least..)   Apparently he started another thread on 1st April    lol
http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=70854


----------



## MRC & Co

LOL, I actually beleive I was talking to a trader yesterday, who told me of this guy.  Dont remember the name, but sure it was on a gold forum and he was saying he actually takes plays using this guy.  LOL!  

I guess most of the population are contrarian indicators.  Hence, why I give such weight to my put/call ratios, specialist shorting ratios and bull/bear polls.

Wonder if he is right this time!  I dont think gold will do well over the next few trading days (just my opinion), but could well see a bounce after that!


----------



## josjes

Aden sister newsletter that I subscribe declared that the C rise (which in a bull market, is the best rise in the cycle when gold reaches new highs) is over as price plunge and stay below 907. This means that gold is undergoing substantial correction just like middle of 2006 which could take months to consolidate. The fall from this rise is the most violent one, and could take gold to its 65 week MA which is 780. Good news for those that are still in accumulation phase great buying opportunity. Take heart it is still a long way ( at least until 2010-1011) to go before this mega bull is over.


----------



## barrett

Called the top, then 953, then 874... not exactly a fluke is it..  this isn't the first time either..  nice work Kauri!!

I can see it's going to take some more work to convince him gold's a currency though... would another zero on the end of the price do?   Might take a while though


----------



## barrett

I know this doesn't help with the trading decisions right now, but in the meantime.. some interesting figures from Jeff Christian of CPM, interviewed on FSN about his gold yearbook..

Of the world's liquid wealth (excluding derivatives)...

45% is held in the equity markets
15% is held in the bond markets
39% is held in bank deposits
1.4% is held in gold. 

39% of the world's liquid wealth in bank accounts (much of it in US and China) is rather a lot of money being taxed with a stiff annual negative IR penalty.  As George Soros put it yesterday "There is an increasing unwillingness to hold dollars, though there's a lack of suitable alternatives''.

 With the imbalance this big, if even a small proportion of the penalised bank savers move into gold in coming years it could make a very big difference to the market cap of the gold sector  It's all the more likely if equities and housing are going sideways.

Another point made was that gold miners' market caps are still very small compared to industrial stock market caps.. the _combined_ market cap of the whole HUI gold stock index (top 16 biggest unhedged gold&silver producers) is just $174Bn.. Coca Cola's market cap alone is $134Bn.. and Microsoft alone is $260Bn.  So even after the big rises in gold stock valuations since 2000, their valuations on absolute market cap (and on P/E) are nothing like, for instance, tech bubble extremes. 

Another point made was that gold investors rarely sell - in the last century there have been only 3 years when private individual gold holders were net sellers.  Kind of interesting, in light of the ongoing transfer of gold from public hands into private..


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> I know this doesn't help with the trading decisions right now, but in the meantime.. some interesting figures from Jeff Christian of CPM, interviewed on FSN about his gold yearbook..
> 
> Of the world's liquid wealth (excluding derivatives)...
> 
> 45% is held in the equity markets
> 15% is held in the bond markets
> 39% is held in bank deposits
> 1.4% is held in gold.
> 
> 39% of the world's liquid wealth in bank accounts (much of it in US and China) is rather a lot of money being taxed with a stiff annual negative IR penalty.  As George Soros put it yesterday "There is an increasing unwillingness to hold dollars, though there's a lack of suitable alternatives''.
> 
> With the imbalance this big, if even a small proportion of the penalised bank savers move into gold in coming years it could make a very big difference to the market cap of the gold sector  It's all the more likely if equities and housing are going sideways.
> 
> Another point made was that gold miners' market caps are still very small compared to industrial stock market caps.. the _combined_ market cap of the whole HUI gold stock index (top 16 biggest unhedged gold&silver producers) is just $174Bn.. Coca Cola's market cap alone is $134Bn.. and Microsoft alone is $260Bn.  So even after the big rises in gold stock valuations since 2000, their valuations on absolute market cap (and on P/E) are nothing like, for instance, tech bubble extremes.
> 
> Another point made was that gold investors rarely sell - in the last century there have been only 3 years when private individual gold holders were net sellers.  Kind of interesting, in light of the ongoing transfer of gold from public hands into private..





And that is why they will do all they can to keep gold below 4 figures as long as possible.    The protection of the current US system and the dollar at all cost till the Presidential election.


----------



## barrett

From a contrarian standpoint I should bring up that the analysts' consensus for the dollar has in fact been bullish for some months now, and remains bullish though pared back a little, with the only thing really supporting the dollar being the disbelief that it can go any lower.  This chart brings up an interesting alternative! (daily, linear scale).


----------



## kransky

80,000 jobs lost in the US.. well above the expected 60,000
unemployment up to 5.1% up from an expected 5.0%


----------



## explod

kransky said:


> 80,000 jobs lost in the US.. well above the expected 60,000
> unemployment up to 5.1% up from an expected 5.0%




Yep, all bad, US$ has failed to break resistance and is turning down again now.  We can expect gold to claw its way back up now.   The rate of recovery will be interesting this time.  The increasing bad news is the main cause of the volatility so we may expect faster recoveries after faster falls perhaps.

Interesting times for gold bugs.

April on my Gann Chart has been moderately good for gold over the past 31 years.  We enter that about the 10th instant for a 4 week period.


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Yep, all bad, US$ has failed to break resistance and is turning down again now.  We can expect gold to claw its way back up now.   The rate of recovery will be interesting this time.  The increasing bad news is the main cause of the volatility so we may expect faster recoveries after faster falls perhaps.
> 
> Interesting times for gold bugs.
> 
> April on my Gann Chart has been moderately good for gold over the past 31 years.  We enter that about the 10th instant for a 4 week period.




All other soft and grain commodities are showing the same as well. They seem to be at their local bottoms (all oversold) and all in place to rise again in the next wave.

I have already entered position for all 3 of the grain commodities, still waiting for more confirmation on the softs.

So my "guts" feeling that gold/silver will soon complete their consolidation.

Of course, nothing is perfect.  

Acting all too discretionary here when I should be systematic. hahah


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> All other soft and grain commodities are showing the same as well. They seem to be at their local bottoms (all oversold) and all in place to rise again in the next wave.
> 
> I have already entered position for all 3 of the grain commodities, still waiting for more confirmation on the softs.
> 
> So my "guts" feeling that gold/silver will soon complete their consolidation.
> 
> Of course, nothing is perfect.
> 
> Acting all too discretionary here when I should be systematic. hahah




I think we should go with our instincts more than we do.  Read an intersting book some years ago called "The Intuitive Edge"   published in the 80's, the short of it is that our intuition is based on our total experience, some of it long forgotten and some of it subconscious and some of it would you believe genetic (Carl Jung was into this stuff, deep but fascinating)

I brought back into LGL last Friday and it was all just the feeling, it works suprisingly well.


----------



## MRC & Co

There are a few successful guys I have read about who trade intuitively, based on experience.  Generally, they were pit traders and MMs.  However, I wouldnt say that too loud around here...........

This is the difference, dont mistake intuition with "intuition".  Some can see nuances in price and "know" movements, some are simply playing the guessing game.  

Big difference.


----------



## refined silver

Temjin said:


> So my "guts" feeling that gold/silver will soon complete their consolidation.
> 
> Of course, nothing is perfect.
> 
> Acting all too discretionary here when I should be systematic. hahah




Gut is good!

Nice new avatar too by the way!! I like it!


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> There are a few successful guys I have read about who trade intuitively, based on experience.  Generally, they were pit traders and MMs.  However, I wouldnt say that too loud around here...........
> 
> This is the difference, dont mistake intuition with "intuition".  Some can see nuances in price and "know" movements, some are simply playing the guessing game.
> 
> Big difference.




Yeh, but I am probably in the nut cupboard with most anyway.  Only said  "more than we do"     

I differ from the purely tech in that I believe by widely reading and understanding all the fundamentals that one can and then going with the wind (the trend) you cant go far wrong.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Yeh, but I am probably in the nut cupboard with most anyway.  Only said  "more than we do"
> 
> I differ from the purely tech in that I believe by widely reading and understanding all the fundamentals that one can and then going with the wind (the trend) you cant go far wrong.




Yes I agree with the basic principles here.

No point buying into something because it is "fundamentally undervalued" when it is on a downtrend.  Wait for consolidation and price momentum.  So you may miss a bit of the uptrend.....but you will never hit the big losses either and have far smaller chances of your stops being taken out.  

This is why I dont see why F/A guys trade blindly, without any T/A whatsoever!  If it works for them, well done, but certainly doesnt work for me!  

Either way, thats just my opinion.  Everyone has their own style.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> I think we should go with our instincts more than we do. Read an intersting book some years ago called "The Intuitive Edge" published in the 80's, the short of it is that our intuition is based on our total experience, some of it long forgotten and some of it subconscious and some of it would you believe genetic (Carl Jung was into this stuff, deep but fascinating)
> 
> I brought back into LGL last Friday and it was all just the feeling, it works suprisingly well.




Yes, I use it a lot too, nothing to be ashamed about as it works for me, probably better/same odds than every other method. I feel it with RED & DEG. See how we go then .


----------



## MRC & Co

Uncle Festivus said:


> I feel it with RED




This is one of the few goldies I like on the ASX.  Been watching it take a beating for a while now, already looks a good price!  To be or not to be........


----------



## Sean K

MRC & Co said:


> This is one of the few goldies I like on the ASX.  Been watching it take a beating for a while now, already looks a good price!  To be or not to be........



Gents, what do you feel with RED?

The volume?

Gotta be an error...


----------



## MRC & Co

Volume is fukced on all stocks I think!  Definately an error.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Gents, what do you feel with RED?
> 
> The volume?
> 
> Gotta be an error...



Yes, BC volume data out by factor of 100. Otherwise see the RED thread Fred


----------



## Temjin

refined silver said:


> Gut is good!
> 
> Nice new avatar too by the way!! I like it!




haha thanks, I stole it off from google image.

Maybe my guts could be right.

I have always give little attention to Fibonacci numbers as resistance/support on price actions. (maybe due to my biases in mechanical system heh) But the recent price actions for gold and silver based on the Fibonacci levels kinda surprised me. I should rethink twice about these self-fulfilling indicators.  

See how gold bounced off exactly at 50% as support and also at 61.8%. 

Same for silver but 61.8% acted as support and 38.2% as resistance.

Hope it holds now.


----------



## refined silver

Someone prepared to lay 50 years of trading experience and reputation on the line:

Jim Sinclair offers a $1,000,000 bet that gold will reach $1,650 by or before January 2011.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080404.RBERMAN04/TPStory/Business

Not a publicity stunt but a real wager, looking for a taker.



> Serious inquiries on this have been primarily from young derivative dealers, which I was expecting.
> 
> By Monday I expect the wager contract to be finalized with a party that has offered to take me up on this bet. Details will be posted once the process is complete.
> 
> I believe this is a sucker bet. I am not the sucker.



and...



> It is one thing to type on a computer or be a talking head. It is another to bet the ranch on the view you espouse.
> 
> The technical procedure of a serious wager is:
> 
> 1. Prove you can in fact wage the challenge through an attorney's letter.
> 2. Segregate the funds in cash or near cash in the hands of your attorney.
> 3. Execute an agreed upon binding contract stating the terms of the wager.
> 
> This offer is void in areas where wagering is illegal if any such areas still exist in our algorithm-geek casino world!


----------



## tayser

Temjin: are you using a live account with MetaTrader4 to get both Gold and Silver or is it a demo?

I'm using the bog-standard Metaquotes demo server and I only get gold...


----------



## josjes

I notice there is distinct rotation started already from Banks/Financials to Commodities stocks since last Friday. BHP breaks $40 easily with strong volume and support. Gold also break $907 easily and steadily moving up. The banks got hit heavily all down 3-5%. I think we might have another upleg for gold going with target $960, dare I say that 4 figure numbers. Trouble brewing in Financials ? More skeleton in the closet coming out ??


----------



## Kauri

tayser said:


> Temjin: are you using a live account with MetaTrader4 to get both Gold and Silver or is it a demo?
> 
> I'm using the bog-standard Metaquotes demo server and I only get gold...



 this thread.. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9117  posts 8 and 10 should get it for you..   

Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## tayser

merci beaucoup.


----------



## Kauri

If Gold and the $ are somewhat linked currently it may be time for a shuffle soon??

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> If Gold and the $ are somewhat linked currently it may be time for a shuffle soon??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Inextricably.   The $US index is showing distinct weakness and the financials all bad.   Silver rasing its head.  What more can one add???


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> If Gold and the $ are somewhat linked currently it may be time for a shuffle soon??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Yeah we could all end up like frodo halfway through return of the king.. this breakout on the hourly should keep incy wincy away for another day or two though.. b getting underway?


----------



## josjes

Volume is high on the upside. Silver is even better. RSI is showing higher high with lower price at the bottom. See chart.
I think we are heading back up at least 960 for the next target resistance. Then a target to $1024 in May is good probability. Short seller out of the way for now.


----------



## barrett

Oops.. 910 right now, not looking so flash now on the hourly


----------



## Sean K

barrett said:


> Oops.. 910 right now, not looking so flash now on the hourly



Reports that the IMF is going to sell 400 tons of gold might be putting it under pressure. I thought there were agreements of how much and when gold could be sold? Maybe that's just for CBs.


----------



## qmanthebarbarian

kennas said:


> Reports that the IMF is going to sell 400 tons of gold might be putting it under pressure. I thought there were agreements of how much and when gold could be sold? Maybe that's just for CBs.




My understanding is that the CB agreement limits the max that could be sold, not the min. ie. it will allow increased supply up to a point. IMF sales will be within the allowed amount by the CB agreement but this doesn't mean IMF sales won't skew the gold price.

correct me if wrong


----------



## Sean K

qmanthebarbarian said:


> My understanding is that the CB agreement limits the max that could be sold, not the min. e.g. it allows volatility. IMF sales will be within the allowed amount by the CB agreement but this is hazy - IMF sales could still skew gold price.
> 
> correct me if wrong




Sounds like it just needs approval in this case. 



> *IMF to sell gold*
> 
> The IMF said it will sell 403.3 metric tons of gold, currently valued at more than $13 billion, and cut substantial costs as part of an efficiency drive.
> 
> In a statement on Monday, managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the IMF had made "difficult but necessary choices" to close an income shortfall and make the agency more efficient through a "new and sustainable income and expenditure framework."
> 
> *The proposal faces at least two key hurdles. The U.S. Congress must approve the IMF's proposal to sell gold. Most member countries will also have to enact legislation to expand the IMF's investment authority. *
> 
> The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces, or 3,217 metric tons, of gold. As of late February, those holdings amounted to $95.2 billion at current market prices, according to information published on the fund's Web site. The IMF holds the third largest gold reserve after the U.S. and German governments.


----------



## josjes

IMF Selling, Gold lease rates negatives, interest rates up/down, deflation/inflation/stagflation, Goldman Sachs prdicted gold underperform shares etc etc. I think these are just short term market noises. 

The longer and seasoned player you are in this mega bull market you will learn to ignore these noises, and stay invested. I have learned my lesson well and painfully (I liquidated 5% of my gold holding back in late March to my deep regret now). 

I am keeping gold with a view of it reaches $1500-$1600 by next year. Yes I know that is a big call, but look back last year in March (price $640) when people were derided with incredulity whenever prediction of $1000 is tossed up.

I am buying at this level (900-920) and aggresively when it dips sub-900. My personal view, it is difficult being patient, but it's the best way to big gains. As long term holder, by going in and out you will lose your position and miss big move.


----------



## rederob

qmanthebarbarian said:


> My understanding is that the CB agreement limits the max that could be sold, not the min. ie. it will allow increased supply up to a point. IMF sales will be within the allowed amount by the CB agreement but this doesn't mean IMF sales won't skew the gold price.
> 
> correct me if wrong



IMF is not a party to Central Bank agreement and can sell as much gold as they have whenever they want.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> IMF is not a party to Central Bank agreement and can sell as much gold as they have whenever they want.





Russian and China are just waiting for large amounts to buy,  they have to limit purchases so as not to move the price.   As in the past any large amounts will be absorbed quickly.

I think from memory, (but it is sourced back in this thread) current sales are in excess of 1,000 tons p.a

The main object of the IMF announcement is to create a perception and keep gold at this level for awhile, and it will probably do that.

20th April till 5th May is annually a strong period for gold accumulation.

We will see.


----------



## catch.profit

dear all

i am new to this forum

where i can get the daily buy and sell level for gold and silver

regds
catch.profit


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Russian and China are just waiting for large amounts to buy, they have to limit purchases so as not to move the price. As in the past any large amounts will be absorbed quickly.
> 
> I think from memory, (but it is sourced back in this thread) current sales are in excess of 1,000 tons p.a
> 
> The main object of the IMF announcement is to create a perception and keep gold at this level for awhile, and it will probably do that.
> 
> 20th April till 5th May is annually a strong period for gold accumulation.
> 
> We will see.




 I f  the russians and chinese want to buy large amounts and the imf wants to sell large amounts... why don't they get together... or are they only allowed to trade on the punters market??
why does the imf want to suppress the pog??
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> I f  the russians and chinese want to buy large amounts and the imf wants to sell large amounts... why don't they get together... or are they only allowed to trade on the punters market??
> why does the imf want to suppress the pog??
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




The IMF(puppet front) pretty well do what the seppos want.  The seppos say they dont want, when infact they haveto.    Bit of a Maxwell Smart really.   

And some of the players dont' want to get together because the other party has nothing of value (intrinsic) to offer.


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> I f  the russians and chinese want to buy large amounts and the imf wants to sell large amounts... why don't they get together... or are they only allowed to trade on the punters market??
> why does the imf want to suppress the pog??
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




The IMF's balance sheet is around $400m in the hole.. basically it's broke so it's going to flog off about 10% of its gold to fill the gap.  It's obliged to do that on market according to the IMF's Articles of Agreement.
Gold price suppression is a secondary goal at best as they plan on selling it gradually over a period of several years.  But I'd say the US won't exactly be objecting to the sale..

The sale has to fall within the 500t quota for the central banks set up under the European Gold Agreement.  From that point of view it is potentially slightly bearish because without those sales they mightn't reach their quota.

But.. past IMF sales have been marked by increases in the gold price rather than decreases....  This time the 'second-tier' central banks as well as private investors are likely to more than mop up the supply.

I agree with Axel Merk's comment (of Merk Hard Currency Fund), "It's not something that's going to rock the market. I think the market can absorb it. And in the long term, for the market, it's a healthy development that gold is moving more towards private hands," 

http://www.forbes.com/markets/curre...f-price-markets-comm-cx_vr_0408markets09.html


----------



## Whiskers

Rate-cutting cycle may be over. Sell Gold. 



> *FED RATE-CUTTING CYCLE MAY BE OVER
> RBC Capital Markets says summer gold correction doldrums are coming*
> In a research report, RBC Capital Markets analysts feel that investors should consider taking profits in gold ahead of the traditionally weak summer season and then take advantage of an anticipated rise later in the year.
> 
> Author: Dorothy Kosich
> Posted:  Wednesday , 09 Apr 2008
> 
> RENO, NV -
> 
> RBC Capital Markets Tuesday urged investors to crystallize profits now and "take advantage of gold at lower levels within the June-July period."
> 
> In his analysis, Michael Curran noted, that over the past 28 years, gold has typically outperformed during the months of April and May, usually followed by a seasonal slowdown in the summer months, "and an upsurge in the early fall."
> 
> "We believe investors should take profits ahead of the end of a Fed rate cutting cycle and ahead of the seasonally quiet period for gold and gold equities in June, July and early August," Curran wrote. "Since the broader market began to react to the uncertainty over the US subprime mortgage crisis on August 14th, and the sell-off of all financial securities began, we believe that gold has discounted in the uncertainty in financial markets and the implied inflation expectation associated with rising commodity prices. We think recent news of possible IMF gold sales up to 400 tonnes are priced in at current levels, and would have limited impact on the market."
> 
> "On the back of this rationale, we advise clients to sell into the typically strong April-May timeframe, ahead of the seasonal slowdown usually observed in the early summer months," he said.
> 
> ‘Combining our view that a seasonal slowdown for gold demand is around the corner in the summer months, and the possibility that the U.S. fed rate cutting cycle may come to an end shortly, we believe the timing is right for investors to take profits in the short term in gold and gold equities.
> 
> http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=50435&sn=Detail


----------



## josjes

Whiskers said:


> Rate-cutting cycle may be over. Sell Gold.




I view this as another market noise that long term gold holder should ignore. 
You can only make big money by holding and adding to your position. IMHO you should not be a trader (sorry no offense for the traders in this forum). If you intend to hold for a few years, by going in an out you will lose your position and miss the big move. It is difficult being patient and giving back gains; but it is the only way to big gains.


----------



## Kauri

and..... why is pog upping???  maybe because... a bullish report from metals consultancy GFMS, (*Reuters*) . They are forecasting gold to reach $1,100 per oz, and PMT.. (precious metals traders) ..note that this prompted a short squeeze out of London that has driven prices higher. 
Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## wayneL

josjes said:


> I view this as another market noise that long term gold holder should ignore.
> You can only make big money by holding and adding to your position. IMHO you should not be a trader (sorry no offense for the traders in this forum). If you intend to hold for a few years, by going in an out you will lose your position and miss the big move. It is difficult being patient and giving back gains; *but it is the only way to big gains.*



Sorry, it is one way to make big gains, a good way *if you're right*, but it is just one way, not the only way.

Trading is another way, *if you trade right*.

Just holding 1 GC contract through this retracement from the ATH is over 10kUSD of drawdown and could conceivable turn into substantially more

I can trade a lot of contracts on a short term/day trade basis with less risk than that.

FWIW


----------



## barrett

Whiskers said:


> Rate-cutting cycle may be over. Sell Gold.




There is usually a seasonal weakness mid-year, but it relates to the lack of Asian festivals during that time.  Since Asian festival/wedding-related buying has dropped right off during this 9 month upleg in gold, and investment demand has been what's driving the move, I'm skeptical that the usual seasonal pattern will be as relevant as what the Fed and US Govt are doing. 

The US Govt has an election coming up in October and Congress are this week debating a massive stimulus package that includes bailing out mortgagees, Fannie/Freddy buying up mortgages, and a variety of other highly inflationary fiscal schemes.  

Meanwhile, most significantly of anything for gold in the past 24 hours, the minutes from the last Fed meeting were released.  Rate-cutting cycle over?  Don't bet on it!

The most important changes relative to the previous meeting are:
1.  Fed staff substantially revised down their projection for real GDP growth through 2008
2. Many of the Fed committee thought "some contraction in
economic activity in the first half of 2008 now appeared likely" [read: 'we're having a recession!']
3. "members viewed the downside risks to economic growth as having increased"
4. Payroll employment and business and consumer confidence had all declined more than they expected (and the employment data that came out since the meeting was substantially worse still - and Jan and feb payrolls were revised down).

The bottom line is, I can't find anything in there to get bullish about the dollar.  The next day or so will be interesting to see whether the technicals on the dollar index confirm or contradict those fundamentals... the dollar index is almost perfectly correlated with the dollar/euro cross rate.. and Trichet won't be budging..


----------



## rederob

barrett said:


> The IMF's balance sheet is around $400m in the hole.. basically it's broke so it's going to flog off about 10% of its gold to fill the gap.  It's obliged to do that on market according to the IMF's Articles of Agreement.
> Gold price suppression is a secondary goal at best as they plan on selling it gradually over a period of several years.  But I'd say the US won't exactly be objecting to the sale..
> 
> The sale has to fall within the 500t quota for the central banks set up under the European Gold Agreement.  From that point of view it is potentially slightly bearish because without those sales they mightn't reach their quota.



Not true in some senses, but perhaps not different from a probable outcome.
The key to IMF's action on gold sales is that they act "responsibly".
Crockett Committee recommendations will guide how they should act on gold sales.
The IMF may choose to act within the constraints of the CBGA, but it is not obliged to.
Importantly, 85% of its membership must support any decision taken.
Finally, while it is probable that the IMF would only dispose gold in the manner recommended, it is not limited to merely 400tonnes.  Ultimately it has over 3,200 tonnes available.

http://www.imf.org/External/NP/EXR/faq/goldfaqs.htm


----------



## Bintang

I've read a few times how the IMF is gonna sell 400 tonnes of gold to cover a $400 million hole in its budget, for example see below. But has anyone wondered why they need to sell so much gold for this purpose. Unless my arithmetic is wrong  400 tonnes of gold must be worth around $11 billion !!!
That's enough cash to plug the budget hole 28 times over. 


http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/go..._intervention_plaza_china_041020083:confused:

WHAT A BUSY WEEK for the International Monetary Fund – and it's barely half-way through as of Wednesday!

   Just how busy will the IMF get when it helps host the G7 meeting of policy wonks from the world's seven richest nations in Washington this weekend?

   Rumors were that the assembled finance ministers – from Europe, Japan, the UK, Canada and of course the United States – wanted to chew over joint intervention in the currency market. The plan? Buy Dollars to support the US currency's value, easing the surge in commodity prices and helping export-dependent economies avoid a race-to-debase as they try to stay competitive.

   But could the G7 worthies really be so dumb...?

   On Monday this week (7th April) the IMF's managing director, Dominic Strauss-Kahn, called for concerted cross-border intervention and regulation by national governments to stem the ongoing global banking crisis.

*   On Tuesday the IMF then laid out plans to re-organize its own finances, selling 400 tonnes of gold reserves to help cover a $400 million deficit in its $1 billion budget.*


----------



## Whiskers

Bintang said:


> Rumors were that the assembled finance ministers – from Europe, Japan, the UK, Canada and of course the United States – wanted to chew over joint intervention in the currency market. The plan? Buy Dollars to support the US currency's value, easing the surge in commodity prices and helping export-dependent economies avoid a race-to-debase as they try to stay competitive.




Yes, I've been speculating for awhile that this will be on. I see Bill Evans from Westpac mention speculation of a rising USD yesterday, but emphasised they don't think so.

I think I''m prepared to take a wager on it though!


----------



## Sean K

Have we had an ABC correction here, or is it forming up to be a H&S with a breakdown projection about $800?


----------



## barrett

Whiskers said:


> Yes, I've been speculating for awhile that this will be on. I see Bill Evans from Westpac mention speculation of a rising USD yesterday, but emphasised they don't think so.
> 
> I think I''m prepared to take a wager on it though!





Hi Whiskers, I really hope you're right, I'd like nothing more than to shovel the rest of my savings (and my dad and I's super funds) into PM stocks and gold and silver bullion, at a 10% discount from current prices.  

But these currency interventions usually aren't attempted, or aren't very successful, if monetary policy isn't aligned with their objective.  .. also, the US probably likes its dollar going down at the moment, it makes the Fed's job easier in the short term - and the G7 rumours and bullish consensus on the US dollar persist - but will the US agree to blowing money on a currency intervention that's not in its own interest?

If you're going long the USD you might want to monitor this situation closely,
cheers
EURUSD daily


----------



## josjes

kennas said:


> Have we had an ABC correction here, or is it forming up to be a H&S with a breakdown projection about $800?




I am in the Bull case - it's ABC correction, and we are now heading to wave I of wave V up trend again. Supporting evidence ? Oil has just broken bullish symmetrical triangle on Monday and hit new high yesterday, with target of $115-$120. EUR-US has also broken symmetrical triangle, USD index chart is very weak. All this portends to a stronger Gold. Gold:Oil ratio is currently 8.43 which undervalues gold, long term average is 10. The Fed's chance of cutting another 50bp on 30 April, is not hurting gold-oil move. 

I see another trend up to 960 possibly break 1024 middle of May (Wave I), April-May is strong season for Gold for the past 5 years, then Wave II down consolidation between June - August, before making upleg again from September onward. 

Do we have anyone here presenting the Bear case (the $800 scenario) ?


----------



## explod

josjes said:


> I am in the Bull case - it's ABC correction, and we are now heading to wave I of wave V up trend again. Supporting evidence ? Oil has just broken bullish symmetrical triangle on Monday and hit new high yesterday, with target of $115-$120. EUR-US has also broken symmetrical triangle, USD index chart is very weak. All this portends to a stronger Gold. Gold:Oil ratio is currently 8.43 which undervalues gold, long term average is 10. The Fed's chance of cutting another 50bp on 30 April, is not hurting gold-oil move.
> 
> I see another trend up to 960 possibly break 1024 middle of May (Wave I), April-May is strong season for Gold for the past 5 years, then Wave II down consolidation between June - August, before making upleg again from September onward.
> 
> Do we have anyone here presenting the Bear case (the $800 scenario) ?




I do not underestimate  the political desperation of the Fed to secure a republican at the end of the year.    Maybe not 800 but huge propaganda and stratiegic dumping will continue.   

Come the end of the year gold will go to its proper inflation adjusted value of around 3000 and then the mob sentiment will take it well beyond.   But in the meantime, yep floats sideway between 1024 and 880 is to be expected.

Having said that I am not game to be out of my long positions.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Do we have anyone here presenting the Bear case (the $800 scenario) ?



I'm long term gold bull, however there's some factors that could see a breakdown. 

Oil may have peaked. We could go through a period of stability, and/or a massive discovery, taking the pressure off, or a good hurricane season may pass by. Maybe. 

Peace in the Middle East. LOL

Iran stops its nuclear program. LOL

There are NO MORE skeletons in the financial bear closet. he, he. Unlikely. 

The intervention protective measures to fix the US (UK, Spain) housing markets actually work, creating a softer landing. Bandaide. 

US rates stabilise, possibly going up a tad. Maybe.

Central banks disregard agreements and start selling truck loads of the stuff. Nope. 

The world and Chindia slowdowns reduce demand. For a little while maybe.

AZM discover a 100m oz deposit!  A sure thing!! LOL


----------



## Temjin

josjes said:


> Do we have anyone here presenting the Bear case (the $800 scenario) ?




Technically on the weekly chart, the MACD signal just turn bearish, but it looks bullish on the daily chart.

Fundamentally, maybe more defaults from the banks, massive liquidations, US Fed Reserve become "sane" again and increase rate to 10+%, gold demand from jewellery suffer a massive drop because Indians now think gold is an evil object, the US government allow public audit on their gold vault with confirmed storage more than official estimate, gold mines supply increases unexpectedly because labours are willing to work 48 hours a day and equipments became 100% more efficient overnight and maybe gold reserves on all mines doubled as god decide to reward mankind for their continue faith?

That would break the gold trend back way below $800 for sure.


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm one that believes that gold has commenced another move up . The consolidation has been in process for weeks now and looks to have ground to a halt .  

Inflation is the benefactor of the gold price , its persistent rising movement would be looked upon as worrisome for Asian nations , even if the US declares they are unphased by it , which I doubt , but it makes for good contradiction and spinnings .

US rates , well I certainly can't see any avenue that would allow the Fed to start raising again by say June . They have to be seen to be combatting inflation , unless sarcopenia of the brain has set in for the Fed board .

The swing in inflation to cost-push is at the forefront of the battle , as it is now at the stage where it can no longer be restained by words and personal agendas in business will add to any upward movements in inflation , especially at shelf prices on staples .

I watched the 913/914 -917/920/921 tranches with surprise , as it repeated a cycle in prices again that presented itself back in the $300 stages .

I haven't taken up any contracts lately , although I was tempted , but the funds were reserved for another instruments moves expected . I don't see the correct risk ratios for opening myself up on long term strategies in the current enviroment of volatility swings . I have a long term position / holding in physical though , that has been added to at selective times . Skips behaving lately which could well lead to being able to add once more , if the moves are in my interest .


----------



## Whiskers

POG going down, anyone?


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> POG going down, anyone?




Actually was watching the 5 min. Should have posted it. 

Just filled little gap  from early on the 10th. :


----------



## MRC & Co

How about Mugabe loses power in Zimbabwe and gold production increases dramatically?


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> How about Mugabe loses power in Zimbabwe and gold production increases dramatically?




Mugabe decided not to go to the table but yes the sky could fall in.   On the MACD gold looking over sold, it will probably hold these levels for awhile.   Market trip will dampen enthusiasm for awhile, notice G Brown (the big drip dumper of Exchequer) demanding that something has to be done about the world financial crises.   Must follow his testo levels.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Mugabe decided not to go to the table but yes the sky could fall in.   On the MACD gold looking over sold, it will probably hold these levels for awhile.   Market trip will dampen enthusiasm for awhile, notice G Brown (the big drip dumper of Exchequer) demanding that something has to be done about the world financial crises.   Must follow his testo levels.




Well its not in an extreme reading at the moment.

Interesting to note when price had hit all-time highs, MACD did not, a negative divergence.

However, positive at the moment and could be seen before the turnaround in the moving averages, is the difference between the two moving averages on the historgram, with bars becoming shorter.  

Also, something I read which reminded me of the current situation in gold (though not sure how relevent as the net relative supply does not match exactly to the following scenario but still along the same lines), is the following: When George Soros was short the British pound and was told the British government had allocated around 20 billion US dollars to stabilize the currency, he shrugged and said "that will help them for 30 minutes.  Then what are they going to do"?  - he apparently made over a billion dollars on that trade!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some action on the gold front imminent? Consolidation period coming to a decision point? I notice this time the wedge is not so symmetrical compared to previous, more of a bullish bias maybe?

Stars aligning again? Central banks dishoarding gold to prop up their accounts? Willing buyers soaking it up?


----------



## Kauri

I don't have a short term view of Golds direction currently,(well not one that I would post  ), but the down-legs look impulsive whereas the up-legs, in particular the present one, look corrective??

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## josjes

Uncle Festivus said:


> Some action on the gold front imminent? Consolidation period coming to a decision point? I notice this time the wedge is not so symmetrical compared to previous, more of a bullish bias maybe?
> 
> Stars aligning again? Central banks dishoarding gold to prop up their accounts? Willing buyers soaking it up?



I notice that too Uncle, I reckon price is consolidating within this week, and will have a reversal latest next week. 

Also, since the July 2007 run, gold has never in down trend for more than 4 weeks without resuming uptrend, since October 2006 no correction lasted for more than 10 weeks. This week marks the 4th week since March 17 high. 

When you look at the runaway crude oil, what is the odd that it breaks up vs breaks down ??


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> I don't have a short term view of Golds direction currently,(well not one that I would post  ), but the down-legs look impulsive whereas the up-legs, in particular the present one, look corrective??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



I agree, and quite a paradoxical statement there Kauri. LOL


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> I agree, and quite a paradoxical statement there Kauri. LOL



 What I really meant was that only people who have won a subscription to my Email alerts by entering on the form found on the back of a Purex toilet tissue 6pack really know what I think.. I thunk..   
....now where is that Berocca...   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri said:


> What I really meant was that only people who have won a subscription to my Email alerts by entering on the form found on the back of a Purex toilet tissue 6pack really know what I think.. I thunk..
> ....now where is that Berocca...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



I think we are all waiting for a definative indication from your feathered friend


----------



## explod

Why would I be making a post here at this time and hour?

This thread is about gold, are we on topic

Oil just hit $114.50 a barrell..

The US dollar has gone into another of their recurrent nosedives

Can you rattle budgies cage Kauri (or anyone) and bring us mortals into the light.

Interesting times indeed.


----------



## josjes

ABC correction done. Gold just broke the symmetric triangle. Heading for 960 soon. Gold always surprises on the upside, I see likelyhood it is heading for 1024, and have strong support in 880-900. Fairly little chance heading back to 800 as many predict.


----------



## sophieyan

It looks like one person has caused the current slump in Aussie gold share prices:

It's not just thanks to the ANZ that we have bargains around right now.

Read the following:

Bolnisi Gold chairman behind Opes fall
  _____  

Monday, 14 April 2008
Kate Haycock

WEEKEND media reports have revealed that former Bolnisi Gold chairman Norman
Seckold was the person who withdrew some $A100 million in stock from failed
stockbroker Opes Prime in mid-March, precipitating its $1.4 billion
collapse.

The Australian Financial Review reported over the weekend that Seckold, who
is also the chairman of Mexican-focused explorer Kings Minerals, was the
shareholder called "Client A" by the Australian Securities Exchange. 

Seckold told the newspaper he had withdrawn the shares Opes held as security
for a loan taken out in 2004. 

At that time, Seckold's shares in Bolnisi - which was taken over by United
States-based silver miner Coeur d'Alene Mines late last year - were worth
around $15 million but by mid-March this year they had risen in value to
around $100 million. 

Seckold's decision to remove his shares from the Opes account reportedly
drew attention to irregularities within the stockbroker's accounts, which
quickly led to its demise.

In the wake of the Opes collapse, its major lenders ANZ and Merrill Lynch
were left to recover around $1.4 billion in capital by selling off shares
they seized from the failed broker.


----------



## cuttlefish

Interesting, though I'd say 'triggered' rather than 'caused'.  He withdrew money/stock that was rightfully his - but he's also lucky because it looks like he was last out the door and bumped the door frame on the way out pulling the whole termite ridden building down behind him.


----------



## ithatheekret

Hmm , well it went up hey ...............


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So are we game enough to call this a breakout? Sneaking up on 1k again, gold stocks have to play catch up, only they may get dragged down on a red night in the US tonight?


----------



## ithatheekret

I think it will still range trade for a little longer , but I am expecting a new support to be established , so we get a higher low again .


----------



## barrett

Hi, it looks like we might have completed five waves up from 914 to 952 and now the abc correction is underway?  *a* looks to have completed, *b * underway or finishing, and then possible *c* down to the low to mid 930s and in that case I would accumulate there.  933 area would be a 50% retracement of the 5 waves up as well as a return to the breakout point of the wedge.. a definite 'buy' for me if a retracement to around there and rebound were to occur..

On the other hand, a breakdown below the lower boundary of the wedge - ie hourly close much below about 930 - would greatly raise the probability that this whole rally from 870 was a huge wave 'B' in an ongoing correction - in which case the 'low 800s' calls would look more possible.  

So the next 24 hours, technically, may be quite crucial for the medium term direction, as I see it...
cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Another 'champagne' analysis there barret 

Do I read your chart correctly, with volume this time supporting the advances?


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Another 'champagne' analysis there barret
> 
> Do I read your chart correctly, with volume this time supporting the advances?




Intraday chart... volume supporting the different players timezones??


----------



## barrett

Hi UF, might have to open a bottle if that plan works out.. long odds of course, being gold.. I'm not sure about the volume, I usually watch it at the 1-min level, and that's been little use this past week..  at the daily level it almost looks like volume was tapering off a little during this 2-week rally.. though on the 15 min chart the fairly high volume on the wedge breakout may be encouraging for the medium term bulls..


----------



## Trembling Hand

What contract are you looking @ barrett?


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Another 'champagne' analysis there barret
> 
> Do I read your chart correctly, with volume this time supporting the advances?




 On anything less than dailies (*on spot*) the vol will be skewed to to timezones.. making vol interpretation a tad hazardous..
  Hourly chart affixed... grey is early Euro + London... green is NY...brown ale in the middle is overlap atween the two... and the rest is Asia/Australasia...
  Not surprisingly the most trade is done during brown ale time.. :bier:

Incidentally... a quiet word floating..(like a lead balloon) has a big group in some city writing off up to $22Bln tomorrow... not that I believe it... butt.. all good boy scouts and policemen....  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Trembling Hand said:


> What contract are you looking @ barrett?




Spot gold on MT4 with Norths... thanks to Kauri Trading thread for the setup.


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> Not surprisingly the most trade is done during brown ale time.. :bier:



Ah thanks for clarifying the brew... brown ale time's nearly over by the looks, good excuse to grab one:drink::kebab


----------



## barrett

a, b, c 50% correction complete, 933 reached... and now a breakdown below the lower support of the wedge, on high volume. .. so this doesn't look good.. at all.. I had a little long going in the low 30's which I exited.. just before it plunged from 929 to 922 in _one second_..

GATA meeting began last night, sessions in progress today and tomorrow in Washington DC, that's heavy stuff and they will be trying for some publicity. Needless to say with all sorts of accusations being thrown around, the Feds will not want the gold price shooting up on the day..


----------



## barrett

There was a conversation here last week about 'gut feeling' in gold trading.  I meant to add that mine is terrible... so bad that it might be useful.. 

Without question the most reliable trading signals I've had are the times when I felt 'desperate to buy'.  These times have been close to the most profitable shorting opportunities in gold that we have seen.

Recently at 992-996, I could barely stop myself from phoning the broker to place a large bid.  It was just before the top.   Some weeks after that, I had the same compulsion at 952, immediately before the sharp correction to 870.  And once again yesterday at 952, just before a fall to 907 within 24 hours.  I doubt these 'peaks of emotion', if you like, are a coincidence - they happened at interim tops, and not at other times.  In recent months, just those three times.

I've never followed through and placed a trade when I feel that way.. I recognise the emotion for what it is - unreliable - or is it?  I doubt I could bring myself to go short under those conditions, but others may be able to profit, or confirm the call, etc. 

I think we could find value in working on it as a team and coming up with key trading decisions based on what people are _feeling_ at the time.  Just an idea.  Let me know if anyone else has had a similar experience and/or feels we might be able to cash in on it..  this is particularly relevant to our topic here, since psychology is the key to trading gold, more so than in any other asset.

Particularly interested if anyone who has found they experience really bad feelings when the gold market is bottoming, because I am finding I have an emotional reaction when the market is topping but not when it's bottoming. 
Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Looks like, the downward correction just became a whole lot more complex than the bulls thought.

We had a textbook EW 3 wave(abc)  decline, and another textbook three wave abc advance. Three waves always unfold against the one larger trend. The one larger trend in this case is DOWN.

Another buying opportunity for the bulls perhaps, or another opportunity to cut their palms against the falling knife??


----------



## Temjin

wow, another onslaught from the "boys" again. Looks like someone is trying to prevent an breakout from the previous high and invalidate the bull's technical.


----------



## wayneL

Anyone for a more complex correction?

The grind up from April lows on reducing volume wasn't too convincing was it?

My gut feel is that "they" have drawn a line in the sand on the US peso; also the Fed has saved the world... errr, the banks from a liquidity crisis, several leading indicators are showing bullish on the SM, and the propaganda machine still has Joe Sixpack believing all is well.

Chop city for gold for a while IMO.


----------



## explod

If you go back over the thread you will find that I have said this many times.  Gold is a political object now and the powers that be will do everything to keep the lid on it untill the US Presidential election at years end.   

It is also worth restating that Fridays and Monday are picked in particular, Fridays as they carry over into the weekend and therefore have wider exposure/effect and Monday follow ups before the traders get going for the week.  It is an extreme psycological warfare of holding the crap toether till the last gasp   

But do not dispair the Gold bull will continue but the larger rises we expect may not come till the end of the year.  However the underlying fundamentals for goldshine continue to improve as the financial situation deteriorates by the day.     Those with physical will survive IMHO

Notice heading on Kitco tonight,  "Spot Gold drops 3.5% due to Euro Weakness and Oil Price drop"   and if one then looks at the oil price drop it is less than 1%  and the currency differential even less.    So at the start of trade  in the US the sheeple read the crap and the job has been done.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> I don't have a short term view of Golds direction currently,(well not one that I would post  ), but the down-legs look impulsive whereas the up-legs, in particular the present one, look corrective??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





Still looks that way to me... 
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Gold, in my opinion, is simply reflecting market sentiment... 
   Yesterday it was served up a Googly by Google.. expected 4c below.. came out with a +34c.. after market.. a little bit of confidence there..
   Then Citi bowls up with a beamer... butt... the punter reckons that now that the big boys all have new captains they have taken the opportunity to clean out all the rubbish whilst they can still pin it on the old guard.. hence the impression that the worst is behind them and the team is now in rebuilding mode...
  Add to that the various Fed boys spruicking today and the message they are lobbing out there..
  Coupling, decoupling, derailing, PPT, leasing, political, whatever it needs to explain away the sentiment of the real players... _the fact is Gold is a commodity traded by traders, and they move the market_... follow what they follow ...  I thunk...  

  Cheep cheep
..................Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Strongly supporting the USD and unsupporting Gold is the talk from _traders_ that Macro funds and leveraged accounts are closing out their S&P contract shorts as well as USD shorts and at the same time, selling bonds and selling commodities. Hedge funds and CTAs continue to sell bonds with selling interest focusing on the five years . In addition, Fed officials continue to focus on inflation, underpinning yields with Fed"s Tosser the latest to express inflation concerns, following Lackie and Wisher yesterday.

Cheers
...........Kauri

PS... 5min chart


----------



## cuttlefish

Interesting chart tonight thats for sure ...

I'm less bullish in the very short term because these banks seem to be making it past the reporting season unscathed.  Getting Watchovia to bring their reporting forward and with the bailout ('investment') was probably a sign that it was a reasonably orchestrated situation with the bad news coming out first followed by increasingly better  news as the week progressed. 

The reality is still not being faced - so the banks haven't gone bust (or have managed to avoid having to admit to it anyway) - but their profits are down and the whole liquidity crisis and housing crash isn't going to dissappear in a puff of smoke overnight so there's still longer term pain to come in the US imo.

That being said the prospect of a short term panic flight out of cash based investments into gold due to a complete crisis in the system seems to be reducing ... for the immediate future ... as I understand it they're still not properly pricing the write downs on the  poor quality debt, and the provisioning doesn't seem to have increased that dramatically compared with the potential default levels.  

There's also still the inflationary effect of the extra cash that has gone into the system which surely has to over the medium to long term keep the USD from making too much headway so I still expect USD weakness medium to long term as well.

The discount window stuff also probably allows a lot of stuff to be swept under the carpet for another few months and rolled over ad-infinitum so while thats in place its also hard to know whether all of the skeletons are out of the closet.

I don't deny the possibility of a bit of firmness in the USD and in Australian markets over the next few months, and possible continued consolidation for gold in the $850-$950 range, but I wouldn't be trusting that this is the end of the bear phase yet or that we're out of the woods on serious credit problems.


----------



## josjes

Is Oil too expensive or Gold too cheap ?  I don't get it. 

Gold to Oil ratio now is 7.89 to 1 ($916:$116). The last time the ratio is < 8 is back in Q4 of 2005, when it was $460 and oil $60. Since then Gold went up 50-60% to $720  high in MAy 2006 and and the ratio revert back to 9.5-10. 

FWIW, the long term average of goldil ratio is around 15. 
But even if the ratio is 8.5 gold fair value should be around 980 now. 

So either Oil is going down real hard or Gold is catching up real soon ?


----------



## wavepicker

Certainly looks like this is the start of another big leg down for both Gold and Silver. Would expect Gold to fall to at least $850 on this leg down. 

Foreign currencies look like they are about to reverse as well here. AUDUSD pair forming an EW Ending Diagonal which is very bearish in nature and should lead to a sharp reversal between now and years end. I love these patterns, I specifically wait for those setups and they are my bread and butter.

Not saying with 100% certainty it's come to a completion yet(although it looks it), but certainly more upside looks limited from here and the cards stacked in the bears camp.

Cheers


----------



## Porper

wavepicker said:


> Certainly looks like this is the start of another big leg down for both Gold and Silver. Would expect Gold to fall to at least $850 on this leg down.
> 
> Foreign currencies look like they are about to reverse as well here. AUDUSD pair forming an EW Ending Diagonal which is very bearish in nature and should lead to a sharp reversal between now and years end. I love these patterns, I specifically wait for those setups and they are my bread and butter.
> 
> Not saying with 100% certainty it's come to a completion yet(although it looks it), but certainly more upside looks limited from here and the cards stacked in the bears camp.
> 
> Cheers




Hello Wavepicker, any chance of a chart showing your thoughts if you have time, as I don't have data for currencies or Gold, Silver as yet.Thanks.


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> Certainly looks like this is the start of another big leg down for both Gold and Silver. Would expect Gold to fall to at least $850 on this leg down.
> 
> Foreign currencies look like they are about to reverse as well here. AUDUSD pair forming an EW Ending Diagonal which is very bearish in nature and should lead to a sharp reversal between now and years end. I love these patterns, I specifically wait for those setups and they are my bread and butter.
> 
> Not saying with 100% certainty it's come to a completion yet(although it looks it), but certainly more upside looks limited from here and the cards stacked in the bears camp.
> 
> Cheers




I agree with downward chance, and hope $850 is touched on.
The next major upleg needs a stronger base, and a lower low than of recent weeks is a good start.
As for currencies, don't care about short term as my view is that the greenback is on track for long term trashing. Anything in the more immediate term I gladly defer to traders. My view remains that a sustainable parity of AUD and USD will occur within 18months, and probably much sooner.


----------



## explod

The fact that gold was sold off so strongly on the late Friday US market after Asia and Europe had closed down is a clear indication of further impending problems and fear on the part of the Fed.

I now believe that gold may soon surprise on the upside.  Support of around US$880 to 900 goes back to Janaury now so maybe 850 low a bit of hope more than reality.

Anything is possible of course.


----------



## wavepicker

Porper said:


> Hello Wavepicker, any chance of a chart showing your thoughts if you have time, as I don't have data for currencies or Gold, Silver as yet.Thanks.




Hello Pete, Will do so, I don't have data for Gold or currencies and so will have to mark up EW labels by hand for now

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Porper said:


> Hello Wavepicker, any chance of a chart showing your thoughts if you have time, as I don't have data for currencies or Gold, Silver as yet.Thanks.




My EW Musings for now:

IMO commodity EW charts should be done using a log scale. Either way for Gold we have a completed impulse here(or pretty close to it). 
Have tried to count this as objectively as possible taking into consideration every little wavelet on the monthly chart. The same for the AUDUSD. I have had very good results with this line of the thinking and the key ofcourse is to view the chart without any preconceived notions of what the wavecount should look like.(I tend to shut out fundementals when doing this). Now that does not mean you completely disregard fundemantals but rather your first port of call when performing analysis should be price and pattern as the fundementals IMO lag the market not precede it.
I like  to follow the rules and guidelines to the letter. It's important to not FORCE a count into a line of thinking you may have, just because you may have taken a position and are hoping for a particular outcome. 

I know when highest probability outcome has been acheived when ALL the wavelets have been accounted for in a logical and systematic manner. An example of this was the DJIA last year:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=256837&postcount=112


Cheers


----------



## refined silver

Wavepicker, thats a very tradable $300 move you've marked out for gold. Let us know if you put on shorts to catch it, where and when. If you're right, thats a lot of money to be made.

No offence, but Prechter was the biggest EW guru with gold, and he's been calling for $250 gold ever since it broke over $400, so EWers haven't had a good record with gold this bull. 

Also, I'm no EWer but if I was, I'd tend to start the count at the second double bottom, at end of 00, not first one in mid 99. The gold shares show it much clearer, that the second double bottom was the beginning of the gold bull.


----------



## barrett

wavepicker said:


> Looks like, the downward correction just became a whole lot more complex than the bulls thought.
> 
> We had a textbook EW 3 wave(abc)  decline, and another textbook three wave abc advance. Three waves always unfold against the one larger trend. The one larger trend in this case is DOWN.
> 
> Another buying opportunity for the bulls perhaps, or another opportunity to cut their palms against the falling knife??




Commenting here only on the shorter term, in EW I agree it looks like the recent multi-week rally was a B.  So we can expect an impulse wave down to complete C.

One scenario is a 'sideways' correction, as in the past few major consolidations where C failed to make new lows - in that case C is nearly over.

Or - Friday's downmove nearly completed wave 1 of C... in that case, I agree we are headed to the mid to low 800s.  

I see that as more likely, partly because of the potential for an interim top in crude oil within the next week, or already (below).  

Usually some well known pundit capitulates at an interim top.. and this week it was, very publicly, T. Boone Pickens, who after being bearish for some time, suddenly turned bullish with an optimistic short term forecast.  I also _felt_ like buying (oil)..

Fundamentally I'm with T-Boone and others here and particularly bullish on oil..  but there may be room for a technical correction here....

Crude Oil, May08 contract


----------



## Porper

wavepicker said:


> My EW Musings for now:
> 
> IMO commodity EW charts should be done using a log scale. Either way for Gold we have a completed impulse here(or pretty close to it).
> Have tried to count this as objectively as possible taking into consideration every little wavelet on the monthly chart. The same for the AUDUSD. I have had very good results with this line of the thinking and the key ofcourse is to view the chart without any preconceived notions of what the wavecount should look like.(I tend to shut out fundementals when doing this). Now that does not mean you completely disregard fundemantals but rather your first port of call when performing analysis should be price and pattern as the fundementals IMO lag the market not precede it.
> I like  to follow the rules and guidelines to the letter. It's important to not FORCE a count into a line of thinking you may have, just because you may have taken a position and are hoping for a particular outcome.
> 
> I know when highest probability outcome has been acheived when ALL the wavelets have been accounted for in a logical and systematic manner. An example of this was the DJIA last year:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=256837&postcount=112
> 
> 
> Cheers




Thanks for the chart and thoughts Wavepicker, looks good to me.On a different note if Gold does correct here, as the US$ rises, you would think this would be bullish for equities, which brings us to your point above, and try and place a wave count without the bias of fundamentals.Sometimes difficult to do !!

Refined Silver, it sometimes helps when the count isn't obvious, or not sure where the starting point is to work backwards, ie in this case start the count from the recent high.


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> Wavepicker, thats a very tradable $300 move you've marked out for gold. Let us know if you put on shorts to catch it, where and when. If you're right, thats a lot of money to be made.
> 
> No offence, but Prechter was the biggest EW guru with gold, and he's been calling for $250 gold ever since it broke over $400, so EWers haven't had a good record with gold this bull.
> 
> Also, I'm no EWer but if I was, I'd tend to start the count at the second double bottom, at end of 00, not first one in mid 99. The gold shares show it much clearer, that the second double bottom was the beginning of the gold bull.





Hello RS. In the last 30 years Prechter has had a good record with Gold, but I admit that Elliotticians do make mistakes with trades, they also make some stunning trades(just like most other traders). 
The perfect trading system does not exist as much as we wish it did. When dealing with the future all we can do is to learn to trade with a probabilistic mindset.
I actually bought Gold in April 2001 on a recommendaton from Prechters Elliott Wave Theorist saying back then that pessimism toward Gold back then had reached extreme levels.

Re the EW count, why would you start your count at the low of 2001 anyway??.  To me that is a classic second wave. You would have found that pessimism toward Gold was at it's worst at the terminus of the wave 2 in 2001, more so even than 1999 even though it was at higher levels in 2001.

However the best way to determine this would be to break down the wave structure in in the 1999 advance and see if it was a 3 or a 5.

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Porper said:


> On a different note if Gold does correct here, as the US$ rises, you would think this would be bullish for equities, which brings us to your point above, and try and place a wave count without the bias of fundamentals.Sometimes difficult to do !!




Have no idea Pete. But I look at the equities charts completely seperately in comparison to precious metals and don't really look for any relationships unless they look obvious. I have never found any although EWI do say there is a relationship with Silver and the SP500!! 

I am bullish equities for the short term.


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129


----------



## refined silver

wavepicker said:


> Hello RS. In the last 30 years Prechter has had a good record with Gold, but I admit that Elliotticians do make mistakes with trades, they also make some stunning trades(just like most other traders).
> I actually bought Gold in April 2001 on a recommendaton from Prechters Elliott Wave Theorist saying back then that pessimism toward Gold back then had reached extreme levels.




To miss the last 70-80% of the gold bull I wouldn't call a good record. Yes he maybe got the oversold bottom in 01, but he was only calling for a corrective bounce he didn't recognise that the trend of the last 20 years had changed, when it had bounced, he continued calling for $250 for years, refusing to admit he was wrong. He still thinks gold is in a bear mkt and has just been changing his labeling to validate his bearish beliefs. Its got the point of being ridiculous, and of course causing his followers to miss out on most of the gains, or worse still lose if they kept going short.



> Re the EW count, why would you start your count at the low of 2001 anyway??.  To me that is a classic second wave. You would have found that pessimism toward Gold was at it's worst at the terminus of the wave 2 in 2001, more so even than 1999 even though it was at higher levels in 2001.
> Cheers




As I said I'm no EWer, but I agree the pessimism towards gold was much worse in 2001, and the the gold shares were much lower also, which to me marks the start of the bull. Otherwise you end up with totally different counts on gold vs the gold share indices which tend to move in tandem, (just amplification varies).

I also agree EW can be amazingly accurate...The problem is most EWs all interpret different wave counts in real time, and secondly and more importantly, you must have the fundamentals right, and the fundamental direction right, then TA, EW etc help on timing. If technicals are your CORE belief, rather tahn fundamentals, 90% are doomed to failure.

My other question which wasn't answered, and goes for all posting, is your money where your views are? If so, say when and where you are short, and til when. I am fully long, and so if gold goes to the $600s, $700s or even low $800s, my portfolio is likely to be a bit bloodied. Its easy to sit at a computer and philosophise, but a bit meaningless if you are stating a clear opinion and there is no substance or money behind the views.

Cheers


----------



## Porper

refined silver said:


> .
> 
> I also agree EW can be amazingly accurate...The problem is most EWs all interpret different wave counts in real time




This is where most Elliot Wave disbelievers point their argument and it is actually just plain not true.Once you study and learn a little more than the basics you will find that most counts are very similar, also you tend to find that there will be a primary count (most likely), then a secondary etc, etc.




refined silver said:


> .
> 
> and secondly and more importantly, you must have the fundamentals right, and the fundamental direction right, then TA, EW etc help on timing. If technicals are your CORE belief, rather tahn fundamentals, 90% are doomed to failure.




Well, supposedly 90% of us are doomed to failure anyway, whether we trade on T/A or fundamentals.I don't disagree with the funamentals argument fully as I do use this with my super in conjunction with T/A.

To trade I do wholly disagree, I know for a fact that not having any idea even what the company you buy into even does  has no adverse effect on profits.T/A on its own can be profitable consistently. 



refined silver said:


> .
> 
> My other question which wasn't answered, and goes for all posting, is your money where your views are? If so, say when and where you are short, and til when. I am fully long, and so if gold goes to the $600s, $700s or even low $800s, my portfolio is likely to be a bit bloodied. Its easy to sit at a computer and philosophise, but a bit meaningless if you are stating a clear opinion and there is no substance or money behind the views.
> 
> Cheers




This thread is about peoples views on where Gold is heading, not a live trade arena.For some people this view is done using Elliot Wave, others, fundamentals or even other patterns.

Wavepicker is obviously very educated on Elliot Wave probably more so than anybody on this forum, he doesn't need to post live trades with his analysis to prove a point.


----------



## ithatheekret

There's rumours that some European countries will eventually withdraw from using the Euro and returning to their old currencies .

If this was to happen what would be the outcome for the gold price ?

Imagine the return of the DM and/ or the French Franc . 

With the Euro at soaring heights the possiblities are definitely there , but will the posturing as such , eventuate into a nationalistic rush towards dead and forgotten currencies ?


----------



## refined silver

> =Porper;285021]This is where most Elliot Wave disbelievers point their argument and it is actually just plain not true.Once you study and learn a little more than the basics you will find that most counts are very similar, also you tend to find that there will be a primary count (most likely), then a secondary etc, etc.




Why then has Prechter continually changed his counts umpteen times for the last few years. And he's supposedly the guru ??



> This thread is about peoples views on where Gold is heading, not a live trade arena.For some people this view is done using Elliot Wave, others, fundamentals or even other patterns.




If you think having no skin the the game makes no difference, I beg to differ. Read any trading thread about paper trading vs real trading, course it makes a difference. 

Of course people can post views without putting any money behind it, but it does demonstrate the conviction or true interest if its being traded.

We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.




This is wrong. :swear: How can you make such a statement. I assume you believe such results are just random??


----------



## Porper

refined silver said:


> Why then has Prechter continually changed his counts umpteen times for the last few years. And he's supposedly the guru ??.



I didn't know he had as I don't follow his service.Apparantly he has been calling a bear market for years, again only hear say.Doesn't mean that most of his calls are wrong.He has certainly proved himself in other ways, winning the trading champs for one.



refined silver said:


> Read any trading thread about paper trading vs real trading, course it makes a difference.



Not quite sure why you bring this up, this has nothing to do with the discussion




refined silver said:


> We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.



Well, I would disagree with this, I personally know people who trade purely using T/A and they are highly successful and have been for umpteen years.

Of course we could say the same about fundamentalists being unable to be long term profitable, just look how many brokers continually have strong buy recs on companies plunging in share price.However I won't say that as I simply don't know.


----------



## explod

Porper said:


> I didn't know he had as I don't follow his service.Apparantly he has been calling a bear market for years, again only hear say.Doesn't mean that most of his calls are wrong.He has certainly proved himself in other ways, winning the trading champs for one.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not quite sure why you bring this up, this has nothing to do with the discussion
> 
> 
> 
> Well, I would disagree with this, I personally know people who trade purely using T/A and they are highly successful and have been for umpteen years.
> 
> Of course we could say the same about fundamentalists being unable to be long term profitable, just look how many brokers continually have strong buy recs on companies plunging in share price.However I won't say that as I simply don't know.





What has fundamentalism got to do with Brokers recommendations. Do you know what fundamental analysis is.  

Brokers are the worst person's to listen to from my experience.

Warren Buffet the most successful long term trader and investor does not use T/A.    However many very good traders do.   Why are we hair splitting.

In my view a combination of both is the best way.  But that is only my view and I do not ask anyone else to swallow what I say.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> and I do not ask anyone else to swallow what I say.




But many a Fundamentalist seem to think they have Knowledge to tell others what they can't themselves achieve will be the same for everyone else.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> But many a Fundamentalist seem to think they have Knowledge to tell others what they can't themselves achieve will be the same for everyone else.




That is a bit presumptious and do I detect a little bias creeping in against fundamentalism ?.  

To my mind a fundamental approach is putting the ruler over the object/business/investment and going with its actual output and to some degree potential .

The thread is about the gold price and, 

from a fundamentalist persepective money is more and more backed by debt and gold is one (among others) of the objects taking its place to preserve ones wealth;

from a technical perspective gold is in a long term up trend and there is no sign at this stage that that trend has broken


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.




I don't care what method anyone uses. If they can make it work fine. But if someone makes a statement like the above it has to be challenged as it is clearly wrong.


----------



## Porper

explod said:


> What has fundamentalism got to do with Brokers recommendations. Do you know what fundamental analysis is.



Yes thanks, obviously the T/A V Fundamental question gets you fired up for you to explod like this 



explod said:


> Brokers are the worst person's to listen to from my experience.



Well, at least we agree on one point.Now do most brokers use T/A or fundamentals ?




explod said:


> Warren Buffet the most successful long term trader and investor does not use T/A.



Why is he the most successful, how do you quantify that statement.

This is way off topic now anyway, this has bugga all to do with where Gold is going and why it is where it is.


----------



## wavepicker

Hello RS, Firstly I would laike to say that Porper pretty much summed up my thoughts to your posts. However a few of your comments I would like to respond to:



refined silver said:


> To miss the last 70-80% of the gold bull I wouldn't call a good record. Yes he maybe got the oversold bottom in 01, but he was only calling for a corrective bounce he didn't recognise that the trend of the last 20 years had changed, when it had bounced, he continued calling for $250 for years, refusing to admit he was wrong. He still thinks gold is in a bear mkt and has just been changing his labeling to validate his bearish beliefs. Its got the point of being ridiculous, and of course causing his followers to miss out on most of the gains, or worse still lose if they kept going short.




I am not sure whether your concerns are with Prechters abilities or EW analysis as such. 
Gurus come and go in this business, an analyst can make 10 good calls in a row and be hailed a guru, but then can make to 2 bad ones and go out of favour very very quickly. What got me interested in Prechter was not his forecasting skills in Gold but rather his track record as trader. In 1984 he traded a live index options account in the US trading championship a contest lasting 4 months. Not only did he win the championship, he broke the record at the time with a 444% profit in that time frame. His trades were mainly based on EW and Prechter was the first to admit most of his trades were losers not winners. Do they need to be all winners to be succesfull? Absolutely not!! What EW enabled him to do was narrow down high probability trades. Not all of them worked, but the ones that did were quite stunning.

I have followed the mans work for a number of years now and with regard to Gold, he got it right on many more occasions than wrong. That included the peak in 1980 and all the subsequent moves in the ensuing bear market, when most other pundits were catching falling knives. Sure, of late he has been off the mark. I won't disgaree with you there, but most of the Gold perma bulls were calling for a low as early as the late 80's.



With regard to changing EW labels, that is simply part of the nature of trading as the dynamic of price change. Radge calls it Adaptive Analysis. All you can do is make the most informed decision that you can with the data that is available to you at the time. The core of my own approach is Cycle Analsysis, EW only makes up 1/3 of what I do and they both compliment each other.




refined silver said:


> I also agree EW can be amazingly accurate...The problem is most EWs all interpret different wave counts in real time, and secondly and more importantly, you must have the fundamentals right, and the fundamental direction right, then TA, EW etc help on timing. If technicals are your CORE belief, rather tahn fundamentals, 90% are doomed to failure.




Yes RS, EWavers interpret different patterns in real time. So do practioners of most other forms of T/A. But you know what? There is just as much subjectivess amongst fundementalists(probabaly much more) 
Personally I think both fundementals and T/A have inherent flaws, but also which you decide to adopt really depends on the type of trading one is conducting. For me, T/A suits my style much more because I generally take short to medium term positions and I have found that  my trading is  inconsistant  with the fundemental approach in these timeframes. At the same time I acknowledge that others have been able to use F/A succesfully over the short/medium terms timeframes.


Sorry but completely and utterly disgaree with you with regard to having fundementals right first.  Yes there is a place for fundementals, but it ain't the fundementals or T/A IMO that drives the market, it's sentiment and social mood.
Explain this if you will, why has our equities market crashed over the last 6 months when all we hear is how robust the Aussie economy is and the fundementals are underpinning it's growth??
This is where our thinking differs, IMO fundementals lag the market not lead it. 
Did you buy Gold in 2001, probably not because 90% of fundementalists back then thought Gold was a ancient relic with little commercial value. Precisely the time to be buying. Now the polar opposite is true.
Sorry that you think that 90% of technical traders are doomed to failure compared to using funnymentals, but this is just plain wrong. If anthyting just as many using F/A are doomed to failure as those using T/A. If you may have tried and failed does not mean that all others are in the same category as you.

It's not the approach that is the key, but rather the mindset. A probabilstic mindset together with the right Money Management is paramount, whichever style of analysis you chose to conduct.



refined silver said:


> My other question which wasn't answered, and goes for all posting, is your money where your views are? If so, say when and where you are short, and til when. I am fully long, and so if gold goes to the $600s, $700s or even low $800s, my portfolio is likely to be a bit bloodied. Its easy to sit at a computer and philosophise, but a bit meaningless if you are stating a clear opinion and there is no substance or money behind the views.




The answer to your question: SOMETIMES. I personally do not make public all my trades except to a few close trading friends (some from this forum).
But if you would like to see some of my own trades go to the "Your Latest T/A based trade" and "The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread" to name a few. Even on this thread if you care to go back 2 years ago and look at my posts, but I have lsited many trades all over this forum if you can be bothered reading all the posts. At present I have no positions in Gold but will make public my movements since you have interest. However by the same token we wish to know when you will be long and short as well.

Cheers


----------



## Whiskers

wavepicker said:


> Yes there is a place for fundementals, but it ain't the fundementals or T/A IMO that drives the market, it's sentiment and social mood.




Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto,

Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto...

Indeed. A point I suscribe to and often mention, but often people interpret ones observation of the market as a personal 'sentiment'.


----------



## explod

Porper said:


> Yes thanks, obviously the T/A V Fundamental question gets you fired up for you to explod like this
> 
> 
> Well, at least we agree on one point.Now do most brokers use T/A or fundamentals ?
> 
> 
> 
> Why is he the most successful, how do you quantify that statement.
> 
> This is way off topic now anyway, this has bugga all to do with where Gold is going and why it is where it is.




So it has been ok for you to go off topic but when challenged a little you fast remind others.  In fact I hit the off topic button first in this instance. 

Not fired up at all, I have no bones at all with any type of analysis and I have not avered to that. 

Buffet measures properly and invests only in what he understands.   That alone saved him from the dot.com because he did not understand it.   He is worth a read pal.  

And a good ole explodion is what is going to happen to gold sometime soon.

And we may learn to smile at ourselves a bit more then.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto,
> 
> Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto...
> 
> Indeed. A point I suscribe to and often mention, but often people interpret ones observation of the market as a personal 'sentiment'.




No argument there at all.  However the overall general weakening of the market has been driven by changing circumstances (fundamentals) over the last 18 months, which in turn has changed sentiment.     Of course short term market movements will be effected by news spin, broker reports, and fed or government intervention and it is this area that gold is particularly hit.   In spite of that gold is up be a great deal over the last 12 months at a time when many other areas are down.       That is a matter of supply and demand which IMHO comes back to fundamentals ahead of any other aspect.

However my great concern is to detect changes and it will be my own view (tech) of charts that will tell me first when it is time to perhaps exit my current long positions.

Where is the problem?


----------



## refined silver

Whoa! Good to see the boys fired up!

Ok. Where do I start?



> Trembling Hand: I don't care what method anyone uses. If they can make it work fine. But if someone makes a statement like the above it has to be challenged as it is clearly wrong.




If you read the whole quote I said 90%. It doesn't come from me originally, (but I agree with it) it's from a guy who's made a living trading for 60yrs. He not just owned brokerages, but had chairs on major exchanges, written books, and called many mkt moves of the last 40 yrs correctly. His father used to trade with Jesse Livermore and was in a similar league. After his 60 yrs trading, that is his observation. That TA without correct FA will at best break even in the long run. Of course he's not stupid enough to say no-one can make a living trading using TA. He has lived amongst traders most of his life.



> I assume you believe such results are just random??



Absolutely not. The random walk theory is one of the biggest lies in Economics. I always use TA. (although part of the reason it works is cos its a self-fullfilling prophecy as nearly everyone uses it)



> Wavepicker: "Sorry but completely and utterly disgaree with you with regard to having fundementals right first. Yes there is a place for fundementals, but it ain't the fundementals or T/A IMO that drives the market, it's sentiment and social mood" .




Yes mkt psychology does drive markets, so that it overshoots the mean on both sides, and the fundamentals get more out of whack, til a correction occurs. 



> Explain this if you will, why has our equities market crashed over the last 6 months when all we hear is how robust the Aussie economy is and the fundementals are underpinning it's growth??




Media articles are not FA. Most financial media is spin and sometimes purposeful distortion of facts.



> I personally do not make public all my trades except to a few close trading friends (some from this forum).




I would never expect you to make all your trades public and I'm not questioning your methods, or truthfulness in any way. I was just making the point that it was a big call to suggest $600-700 as a target, and I wanted to know if you had put any money behind that view



> At present I have no positions in Gold but will make public my movements since you have interest. However by the same token we wish to know when you will be long and short as well.




Appreciated.

For the record I am long til further notice, (Not forever, though)
and have been since beginning of 2002. 

Apologies to any if there was too much deviation from the thread theme.


----------



## RichKid

Ladies & Gentlemen, congratulations on conducting a dignified and robust debate!

I trust that we (this means all ASF members) will continue to resolve our differences in the same spirit. 

We have all gotten a lot more out of this recent series of discussions than we would have had we resorted to invective & assumptions about remarks being motivated by personal antipathy. 

If you feel angered by a post, please do this- just take a deep breath (curse or scream if you really can't hold it in), log off, walk away, think about it, then log back in and reply to the material issues. Ignore the unwanted personal remarks directed at you by the offender as these will stand out like an ugly blemish on that poster's reputation, you will do best to ignore them. 

Hone in on the material issues and mop away the detritus surrounding it, that way the true debate will survive and the rubbish will be discarded. This recent series of exchanged has had little of the 'rubbish' that I have just described but it has been present in other exchanges. It's often our unchecked human emotion that hinders our judgment and leads us astray, most of us would not respond this way face to face- hence the breather I mention above to take stock of yourself before replying.

So, well done to all! These are interesting times to live in, we might as well discuss as much of it as we can without being sidetracked by unwanted squabbles.


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> It doesn't come from me originally, (but I agree with it) ....... That TA without correct FA will at best break even in the long run. Of course he's not stupid enough to say no-one can make a living trading using TA.




Flip Flop


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> However my great concern is to detect changes and it will be my own view (tech) of charts that will tell me first when it is time to perhaps exit my current long positions.
> 
> Where is the problem?




Absolutely James. The charts on occasion if correctly intepreted can warn you of when a trend is at RISK of ENDING.

This is probably the one major difference between Fundemental and Technical Analsyis. The Fundementals attempts to give you an idea of the value a security based on supply/demand criteria, possible expected economic contraction/expansion, and other underlying factors to predict future prices. The only problem is, that in order to quantify these, certain types of data i.e balance sheets, economic figures etc need to be released and made public. No matter how much Fundemental research you do, there are certain pieces of information you will never know until they are made public in which case it might be too late. 

As such  FA can lag(and often does)  the moves in the market as insiders would have started to react much earlier to the rest of the crowd.

This is where T/A can bridge the gap on occasion. Certain types of price patterns, market volume spread analysis, Cyclic Analysis, Elliott Wave patterns can show up clues to show that insiders are slowly liquidating positions and the Fundemental Framework may not be what it seems at a particular instant.

This is where I am others are coming from. Elliott Wave Analysis and even other types of T/A such as that of the  Bill Maclaren methodology can show certian types of patterns such as Ending Diagonals, overlapping of Price swings, certain types of wave structures to warn properly trained chart readers that the trend maybe at risk of ending soon and possible high probablity trades(before even critical support/resistance levels have been broken) might be taken.

That is why I posted the charts on Gold and AUDUSD. Not to say that the trend HAS ended but rather that it showing the first signs that it could be at risk soon and that upside movement is limited. Having said that, especially in the case of commodites such as Gold, 5th waves do have a habit of extending

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

Fundemental....  T/A...  as I have read a few times now... look back through the posts and read the thread...  see where the weight of results is leaning... or nott...

Smiling
.........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> Fundemental....  T/A...  as I have read a few times now... look back through the posts and read the thread...  see where the weight of results is leaning... or nott...
> 
> Smiling
> .........Kauri




Without wanting to enter a debate about FA vs TA, I do have a related question for everyone: I know of various funds, both present and past, that exclusively use FA and consistently beat the indices over 1 to 10 year timeframes.  Does anyone know of a market-beating fund that exclusively uses TA?     Cheers


----------



## barrett

wavepicker said:


> That is why I posted the charts on Gold and AUDUSD. Not to say that the trend HAS ended but rather that it showing the first signs that it could be at risk soon and that upside movement is limited. Having said that, especially in the case of commodites such as Gold, 5th waves do have a habit of extending
> 
> Cheers




Wavepicker, I meant to ask you about this, on the long term chart that you posted.. a lot of work by the way, so thanks for posting.. if we were to correct to say, the low 800s, could there still be a 5th wave extension?  Another thing, in the final 9-month wave 5 on your long-term chart, it looks to me like wave 1 is the longest at the moment, is this right?

If we were to get down to around the low 800s, my guess is that the cash costs in the higher-cost producers would start to put in something of a 'price floor' for gold in that general area, below which the market would be aware of a real risk of denting supply.  

After all many producers... particularly those with Australian mines.. are running on razor thin margins or worse still operating in the red, even at these prices.  What a place to invest Not a bad place to live though.. I know a bar chick who's picking up $80K a year to sort core samples!


----------



## barrett

re disclosing trades.. I am always (since 2004) heavily long gold, silver and oil, stocks and bullion (>100% of net worth excluding super), and any charts I post are only aimed at identifying opportunities to top up.  My money's never on a correction.. it's often waiting for one!

Lastly a couple of charts I meant to put up, firstly a daily of the gold price (log scale) showing the breakdown and retracement, that is likely to give heart to those selling or shorting in the short term.  

Secondly, something Marc Faber has commented on, that gold has had a tendency to find support at its 300 day simple moving average during this bull market.  Chart below - I only have it back to 2003.  300DMA is currently in the high 700s - a long way off.. but the tendency is interesting..


----------



## wavepicker

barrett said:


> Without wanting to enter a debate about FA vs TA, I do have a related question for everyone: I know of various funds, both present and past, that exclusively use FA and consistently beat the indices over 1 to 10 year timeframes.  Does anyone know of a market-beating fund that exclusively uses TA?     Cheers





That is quite true barret, especially over the last 5 years. Quite a few funds have done so recently. But during bear and choppy periods that is very much not the case.

I actually posed this to a the manager of a Super Fund years ago and his response was that on the large his fund would stay invested during both bull and bear periods. i.e long term hold.  He claimed his organization made no use of T/A because they had very little success timing the market, but more importantly because it was also difficult to shift funds easily (due to thier size) over a short term basis.

Now that does not mean all funds disregard T/A. T/A organizations like EWI, mainly advise Institutional Investors, so they are out there.

Re the EW chart, the chances are low if we reach the 800's that W5 will still be an extension IMO. It could morph into something else like a an Ending Diagonal. As mentioned earlier though these are long term monthly charts and Gold does have a tendancy to extend th 5th wave, but one thing that it high probablilty, and that this IS a 5th wave.Green wave 1 is the longest as I interpet it at present, and my intepretation could be wrong. In an impulse one of wave 1,3,5 will be extended. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest, but that does not necessarily mean it has to be the longest. When waves 1 and 3 are approximately an equal size, then wave 5 has a good chance of extending.

Cheers


----------



## explod

From a very simple point of view the gold price trying to hit US$900 found resistance around the start of the year, since the break in January it has become the support area, give or take $20 each way.    Of recent times it bounced off it a week ago, again on Fridays close and again overnight.   

IMHO it will hold and rise from these levels.   However I take note of the reasoned arguments for a correction and with this gold bull rules are continually broken.


----------



## treefrog

yellow run 400 up, 200 down,
blue run 300 (roughly) up, so 150 down - ie to 910??

note this is Gold in $A which facotrs in fluctuations in the $A (obviously)

note also if the current weekly down candle ends this week as a down candle we have a *weekly* downtrend with plenty of momentum space left to run lower


----------



## cuttlefish

Well I'm primarily a fundamentals driven investor but if we're going to have a bit of chest beating going on then I'm going to refer back to the chart I posted in this thread on March 20th 9:32 p.m. and show a comparison to todays chart below.  (chart on left is the one from march 20th reproduced - the price has subsequently fallen into and bounced off the bottom of the identified channel as can be seen on todays chart on the right).

In relation to how far I think this pull back could go I also posted a 5 year chart on 20th march.  Am I going to move the funds I've got in gold producers and near producers into cash because of this short/medium term correction? - no - because I see no change in the fundamental drivers behind the USD and the gold price.  Though I am considering moving a bit more into some undervalued oil producers as a secondary inflation hedge.


----------



## Temjin

barrett said:


> Without wanting to enter a debate about FA vs TA, I do have a related question for everyone: I know of various funds, both present and past, that exclusively use FA and consistently beat the indices over 1 to 10 year timeframes. Does anyone know of a market-beating fund that exclusively uses TA? Cheers




There are literally tons of those. Look for professional managed "futures" funds. You have to be an accredited investors to look at some of the data, but just fake it. 

Just type "Managed futures" on google and you will eventually find out. 

As for gold, I guess my guts feeling was wrong.  I'm still fundamentally long anyway, but bearish on the short term. Waiting for the gold price to reach the 200 MA levels. As well as silver. It's not guaranteed that it will move back there, but has to be prepared for it.


----------



## josjes

We have lots of Dow:Gold chart on the internet to show the ratio of shares vs gold in US.

Does anyone have a chart of All Ords : Gold over the long term, 10 year, 20 years time that they can post here. I have one from Stockcharts but it;s only over 3 years. Thank you.


----------



## ithatheekret

I entered the POG run on the electric side again , just now actually $898.43 with commission , fingers crossed hey .


----------



## wayneL

ithatheekret said:


> I entered the POG run on the electric side again , just now actually $898.43 with commission , fingers crossed hey .




Which contract is that on? 'Cause the M contract hasn't traded that low today. 

Next question => long or short?


----------



## ithatheekret

It's on spot Wayne . I have an $898.05 now too . Would come under M1 though I think ........ thunk  ......... but Euro Orient is an MM if I remember rightly . 

Just had a crossing from underneath on the Ichi as well , should see a repeat in the price as it very light at present .


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> 16 april ..I don't have a short term view of Golds direction currently,(well not one that I would post  ), but the down-legs look impulsive whereas the up-legs, in particular the present one, look corrective??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri






Kauri said:


> 18 April.. Still looks that way to me...
> Cheers
> ............Kauri






Kauri said:


> 18 April..  Gold, in my opinion, is simply reflecting market sentiment...
> Yesterday it was served up a Googly by Google.. expected 4c below.. came out with a +34c.. after market.. a little bit of confidence there..
> Then Citi bowls up with a beamer... butt... the punter reckons that now that the big boys all have new captains they have taken the opportunity to clean out all the rubbish whilst they can still pin it on the old guard.. hence the impression that the worst is behind them and the team is now in rebuilding mode...
> Add to that the various Fed boys spruicking today and the message they are lobbing out there..
> Coupling, decoupling, derailing, PPT, leasing, political, whatever it needs to explain away the sentiment of the real players... _the fact is Gold is a commodity traded by traders, and they move the market_... follow what they follow ... I thunk...
> 
> Cheep cheep
> ..................Kauri




   and still... impulsively going down?? Oh what a feeling..  

 Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Sean K

It's been an interesting spell for gold with most of the enables for gold support still evident in the market. Record oil, Inflation on the up, USD record lows, Geopolitics still shakey....so what's going on? Is the market thinking that the above factors are about to turn around with the chance that the US has finished lowering rates and's going to fix their economy? Gold is forward looking for the economy?  Or, just a correction that we had to have after the rediculous run from the $700s to 1000 in a few weeks.


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> and still... impulsively going down?? Oh what a feeling..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Is this a good enough head and shoulders.

750's here we come. 

Every one bailing out to grab some USD.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> It's been an interesting spell for gold with most of the enables for gold support still evident in the market. Record oil, Inflation on the up, USD record lows, Geopolitics still shakey....so what's going on? Is the market thinking that the above factors are about to turn around with the chance that the US has finished lowering rates and's going to fix their economy? Gold is forward looking for the economy?  Or, just a correction that we had to have after the rediculous run from the $700s to 1000 in a few weeks.





Dont' you believe that gold is political and is therefore being manipulated.  We have pointed out this fact with the reasoning time and again.  Only last week I stated that untill the US Presidential election gold will move up little.  

It is interestingly at the last line of support which I felt would hold.  We will see.   A great buying opportunity.

But most certainly the correction was well overdue.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Dont' you believe that gold is political and is therefore being manipulated.  We have pointed out this fact with the reasoning time and again.



You musn't have convinced me obviously. : I better go back to the drawing board I suppose....


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> You musn't have convinced me obviously. : I better go back to the drawing board I suppose....




 Got me rethinking too... after all, although Rumours are frowned on here...I hear that the Niue Governments PPT is considering a mass dump of their leased Gold reserves as they want to decouple from the $US influence on their exports... so watch out below.. 
Slanty
..........Kurrie...


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> Got me rethinking too... after all, although Rumours are frowned on here...I hear that the Niue Governments PPT is considering a mass dump of their leased Gold reserves as they want to decouple from the $US influence on their exports... so watch out below..
> Slanty
> ..........Kurrie...



LOL, Nuie Government....A government looking after about 600 fisherman... There's more Nuieans playing rugby in Sydney than in Nuie. Maybe that's your point.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> LOL, Nuie Government....A government looking after about 600 fisherman... There's more Nuieans playing rugby in Sydney than in Nuie. Maybe that's your point.




  Don't say you twernt warned...   .. judging by the all conquering $US index the Niue Islanders are weighing in and uncoupling as we speak.... and what is this about 600 fishermen... have you not been hearing of thier greatest export??   

  Cheers
.............Pai Korrie


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:


> Don't say you twernt warned...   .. judging by the all conquering $US index the Niue Islanders are weighing in and uncoupling as we speak.... and what is this about 600 fishermen... have you not been hearing of thier greatest export??
> 
> Cheers
> .............Pai Korrie



The only thing I saw there that they could export was rugby players. Great diving though, and whales visit. They grew some taro too I think...


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> The only thing I saw there that they could export was rugby players. Great diving though, and whales visit. They grew some taro too I think...




   Try Otara... full of exports... aaahh the old watering hole .. the Flying Jug... such fond memories...  no Guano...
  Cheers
............Kestrel


----------



## wavepicker

Gold and the AUDUSD look to be playing ball with my thoughts from a week ago when these charts were posted:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=284834&postcount=4035


For now anyway. From past experience, moves away from an ED (in the case of the AUDUSD) can be quite fast. I believe is the case now.
Gold looks like it ain't gonna find any support soon IMO and this next leg down will be very hard and longer in length than the last leg down.

Let's see what happens but I am short these 2 from a few days ago. Fingers crossed!!

I don't wish to upset the bulls, I am a short term swing trader and hold no bullish or bearish biases, so please understand my posts are not to there antagonize you but basically my own trading views based on objective pattern and cycles analysis at present.

Cheers

Wavepicker


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wavepicker said:


> Gold and the AUDUSD look to be playing ball with my thoughts from a week ago when these charts were posted:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=284834&postcount=4035
> 
> 
> For now anyway. From past experience, moves away from an ED (in the case of the AUDUSD) can be quite fast. I believe is the case now.
> Gold looks like it ain't gonna find any support soon IMO and this next leg down will be very hard and longer in length than the last leg down.
> 
> Let's see what happens but I am short these 2 from a few days ago. Fingers crossed!!
> 
> I don't wish to upset the bulls, I am a short term swing trader and hold no bullish or bearish biases, so please understand my posts are not to there antagonize you but basically my own trading views based on objective pattern and cycles analysis at present.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Wavepicker




Great Post WP,

I allso follow the school of unbiased trading if it's a long buy if it's a short i sell. i really could not care less what the world is doing or what state of the economy is. all i know is charts economies move in cycles and waves. going down is as normal as going up. Chart tells me trade, i trade it either works or it doesn't, my MM keeps me in the game.

Good Trading


----------



## Temjin

It's getting closer now. USD $872.10 is the next support for Fib to retrace back to 0% or rather the last low.

Then if that is breached, we have the psychological $850 level, which also concidentially is the next low on the 22 Jan 2008, the high on 7 Nov 2007 and near the 200 EMA level.

If those are breached, then we still have the weekly 50 EMA level probably at USD $830ish. If that is breached too, then all hell break loose.  

And yes, similarly, I am going to follow more closely to the technicals. Fundamentally, it still must be in a bull market unless the "boys" are serious about their intervention and manipulations. Or unless deflations occur much faster than expected liquidity can be pumped into the system.


----------



## wavepicker

>Apocalypto< said:


> Great Post WP,
> 
> I allso follow the school of unbiased trading if it's a long buy if it's a short i sell. i really could not care less what the world is doing or what state of the economy is. all i know is charts economies move in cycles and waves. going down is as normal as going up. Chart tells me trade, i trade it either works or it doesn't, my MM keeps me in the game.
> 
> Good Trading





Thanks Joseph, 

and that is the way you have to be. I couldn't care less about the state of the economy either, I only care about what possibilities/probabilities are available to me from the chart, either long or short.

 Chris Tate was often quoted as saying, the only economy you should worry about in this business is "your economy" and that "greed is good". Look after number 1.

Go with the flow. *May the Wave guide your trade!!*

Cheers


----------



## explod

Well worth checking this out, follow the link for the full article, but the message, keep holding and accumulating gold:-


By Roger Wiegand      
Apr 24 2008 1:28PM

www.webeatthestreet.com



"If you think markets are free and unfettered I've got a creaky, massive bridge for sale in Michigan illustrating an accurate measure of our current dependability in liberty, freedom and free enterprise. To summarize-there isn’t any."- Traderrog


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A good listen and some straight talk from Jim Sinclair - $1650 gold?

http://www.radio.goldseek.com/sinclairpage.php

 A synopsis of the short term negative forces affecting gold appears to be relatively simple?
Spec long liquidation
Spec shorting
Liquidity rotation into      'normal' equities (now that the crisis is finished)
$US short covering
Euro overbought?
Gold ETF's promoting a      negative feedback selling cycle
sentiment & momentum      cavitation
Positive long? term fundamentals - 
the $US crash - simple!
US interest rates to zero?
Bad news NOT factored in
More financials write downs - if you can't sell something then it's worth a big fat zero; so they understate their losses to calm the markets

Central banks increasing      liquidity - where did M3 go & why? (a net increase even allowing for short term loans getting paid      back etc, if we really do know the real facts or do the loans become      grants??
$US strength is technical ie      a reaction move against the Euro?
will the real LIBOR please      stand up?
stagflation
sovereign funds waiting for a      value entry point again, and exiting US dollar denominated positions with      $US strength
Runaway global debt -the de-coupling myth?

A boost for the local gold      price if the $AU takes a bath from a sustained commodity correction
Etc, etc etc
This week could be make or break for the global financial system?


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> Fundemental....  T/A...  as I have read a few times now... look back through the posts and read the thread...  see where the weight of results is leaning... or nott...
> 
> Smiling
> .........Kauri




Hi Kauri,

I take it you imply TA has trumped FA. I don't think its an either/or proposition for many. Many FA investors use TA also, but the worst TA times, of the last 7 yrs, eg breakdown of l/t trendlines etc, have been the best entry points of the entire bull, meaning a fundamental analysis and conviction was needed to buy in then.

The straight FA investor has gained 100% of the gain since they entered the bull mkt. Thats pretty decent. (Just have to know when to get out, but I feel thats a way off yet)

The FA aggresive investor who has traded portions of their portfolio at or near interim tops and bought back in on corrections has done even better. Again, I think its more than comparable with any TA only results.

Cheers.


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> Hi Kauri,
> 
> I take it you imply TA has trumped FA. I don't think its an either/or proposition for many. Many FA investors use TA also, but the worst TA times, of the last 7 yrs, eg breakdown of l/t trendlines etc, have been the best entry points of the entire bull, meaning a fundamental analysis and conviction was needed to buy in then.
> 
> Cheers.




The last 7 years have been far from a normal in terms of rate of change of price. Most stocks have risen, and  irrespective of what form of analysis you have been chosen to use, chances are your would have been profitable.

But how about since last October? How profitable have F/A investors been since then? Most are probably still holding their longs. Many have been decimated giving back large chunks of their profits.

You mentioned knowing when to get out. May I ask you as  fundemental investor what your exit criteria is? Is it based on F/A or T/A or both. 
Surely it would not be the break of a trendline, for you have mentioned in your previous statement that it's a poor strategy?

Since this  is the "Where is Gold Heading " thread, I would very much be interested in your thoughts about the future(next 12 months) movements of Gold and you reasons, based on F/A or T/A or both why you think this will be the case.


We can then revisit this discussion in 12 months time


Cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> The last 7 years have been far from a normal in terms of rate of change of price. Most stocks have risen, and  irrespective of what form of analysis you have been chosen to use, chances are your would have been profitable.
> 
> But how about since last October? How profitable have F/A investors been since then? Most are probably still holding their longs. Many have been decimated giving back large chunks of their profits.
> 
> You mentioned knowing when to get out. May I ask you as  fundemental investor what your exit criteria is? Is it based on F/A or T/A or both.
> Surely it would not be the break of a trendline, for you have mentioned in your previous statement that it's a poor strategy?
> 
> Since this  is the "Where is Gold Heading " thread, I would very much be interested in your thoughts about the future(next 12 months) movements of Gold and you reasons, based on F/A or T/A or both why you think this will be the case.
> 
> 
> We can then revisit this discussion in 12 months time
> 
> 
> Cheers




As you well know Wavepicker, I am basically a fundamental but also use t/a as part of my methology.   On fundamental grounds I have been out of the market most of the time since the obvious (to all discerning traders) changes from about October.   

I believe the hair splitting on the two camps is irrelevant to the bigger picture of the gold price.  The thread benefits from the input of all posters and making challenges is futile given the type of subject matter (gold).   Gold as an alternative to fiat money at a time when the bona fides of money is coming into question makes its situation different to normal investment objects.   And because of its relationship to fiat money it is political;   a strenthening gold price indicates that economics have a problem.

At this time enormous political pressure, via the media is trying to talk gold down which is making it volatile.    Since mid last year we have seen an explosive rise folowed by a large correction.   This volatility has steadied a little in the last month but each week we see moves of $30 some days.

I have repeated this on several occasions over the last month and I will restate it,  gold may fall futher or rise considerably in the next six months but the real upward movement will be held back till the US Presidential election late this year.    From a t/a point I see that gold has now established fairly strong support at US$880 and would be surprised to see this level breached. 

I am long physical gold and silver bullion for the long term and some selected Australian gold stocks who are about to come into production.   At this time I trust nothing else, look at Caltex having problems  because it cannot obtain sufficient supplies of oil.

Each to his own with respect.


----------



## refined silver

> [=wavepicker;287643]The last 7 years have been far from a normal in terms of rate of change of price. Most stocks have risen, and  irrespective of what form of analysis you have been chosen to use, chances are your would have been profitable.




Sorry, I was speaking only about PM and PM stocks, not the general market. PM stocks have outperformed the general mkt a few times over in this time frame.



> But how about since last October? How profitable have F/A investors been since then? Most are probably still holding their longs. Many have been decimated giving back large chunks of their profits.




Down some, but compared to entry points, the drop from October is not great, still up multi-fold. Many small PM stocks hadn't really risen with the big move in gold from August.



> You mentioned knowing when to get out. May I ask you as  fundemental investor what your exit criteria is? Is it based on F/A or T/A or both. Surely it would not be the break of a trendline, for you have mentioned in your previous statement that it's a poor strategy?




When gold has become overvalued FA would say start looking for TA exit points, including trend line breaks. What is overvalued? Too many points to say here, but pointers include: 

1. supply/demand situation going forward, 
2. faith levels in paper assets including bonds, 
3. inflation and inflationary expectations, 
4. real interest rates, 
5. direction of world's reserve currency, 
6. rate of increase in the Money Supply, which is also determined by:
7. US budget deficits and trade deficits. 
8. surpassing the inflation adjusted previous all time high (now over $2,300), 
9. etc



> Since this  is the "Where is Gold Heading " thread, I would very much be interested in your thoughts about the future(next 12 months) movements of Gold and you reasons, based on F/A or T/A or both why you think this will be the case.




Obviously I think gold is heading up in the next 12 months. However Warren Buffet, the world's foremost value investor (and not really a gold fan!!) famously said he has no clue where markets will go within a 2 year time frame. He diversified out of the US$ and everyone bagged him cos for a year, the dollar was in a countertrend rally, but then it reversed and has more than proved him correct. In other words, if gold is held down, it only means it will rally harder later on. I would be very surprised is gold if not making higher highs, and higher lows by this time next year, as it has for every year since 2000.


----------



## barrett

back from the bush..getting a bit cold up in the mountains..
looks like the gold has been hanging around above a major support on the daily (shown in dotted brown), drawn from daily close on the may 06 peak through various recent daily closes.  This should lend support to a retracement of the recent _down_ impulse from 950.

Now 892.  Preparing to trade a potential retracement from here to either 905 or 916 over the next 48hrs.

nb I am seeing the entire impulse in this chart as 1 of C, anyone else on the same page?


----------



## wavepicker

barrett said:


> back from the bush..getting a bit cold up in the mountains..
> looks like the gold has been hanging around above a major support on the daily (shown in dotted brown), drawn from daily close on the may 06 peak through various recent daily closes.  This should lend support to a retracement of the recent _down_ impulse from 950.
> 
> Now 892.  Preparing to trade a potential retracement from here to either 905 or 916 over the next 48hrs.
> 
> nb I am seeing the entire impulse in this chart as 1 of C, anyone else on the same page?




Hello Barrett, I don't have a wave count at present as need to do by hand(Will try tonight). But it looks to me that Gold is getting ready for a big move down and I am holding onto my shorts. IMO this decline from the peak to where I expect it to fall 600-700, should be a mirror image foldback of the entire advance from the last major 1.5 year consolidation. 

The same story for most of the majors traded against the greenback

Good Trading


----------



## explod

Yep the current downturn is a bit of a no brainer really.  The quiet trading period as we speak, $US up and gold down.    Jon Nadler of Kitco Gold, one of the largest retail gold dealers has a huge effect on market sentiment, has been talking it down big time over the last few weeks.   I think this will be followed by a US Fed no rate cut, and the news that we are all saved.   The political desperation is very intense now and the ECB, due to fundamentals, look like raising rates.  So like the meeting of hot and cold air we are entering a rough time. 

Anyone who can call the short term is brave indeed but the fear of the sheeple could see a fall.   However the gold bull is well intact till a breach of $US700, which I doubt very much.   But yes, be prepared to hang on to your nerves.

Seems to keep bouncing off that US$885 though and every time makes the support that much firmer


----------



## Porper

wavepicker said:


> Hello Barrett, I don't have a wave count at present as need to do by hand(Will try tonight). But it looks to me that Gold is getting ready for a big move down and I am holding onto my shorts. IMO this decline from the peak to where I expect it to fall 600-700, should be a mirror image foldback of the entire advance from the last major 1.5 year consolidation.
> 
> The same story for most of the majors traded against the greenback
> 
> Good Trading




Evening Wavepicker,

Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.

I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.

As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.

We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.


----------



## wavepicker

Porper said:


> Evening Wavepicker,
> 
> Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.
> 
> I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.
> 
> As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.
> 
> We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.





Hello Pete,

For me it's not a question really of being correct or proving the F/A people wrong and T/A right, but making some good coin out of potentially good trade setup from a nice pattern. Ofcourse it could also end up being a dud too and one must be cognizant of that and have an escape plan in place.

If it is a dud then we just move onto the the next potential pattern, but as you say it's always nice to try and stack the cards in ones favour with as much confluence as possible.

Cheers


----------



## explod

Porper said:


> Evening Wavepicker,
> 
> Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.
> 
> I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.
> 
> As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.
> 
> We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.




What has correctness between methods got to do with this thread.  Do you enjoy trying to pick one side up against the other.

Most of the posters here put forward their best views or take on where the gold price is heading.

With t/a and f/a there are infinate variables of time, motion and volume, that I would defy anyone to be able to distinguish who is right or wrong or who wins.

Surely we are adult investors working at a very serious business.


----------



## ithatheekret

I had my taste of Karma last week , entered spot and then watched it roll backwards . Fortunately sphincter reactions caused me to kill the trade before it hit the stop . I'm glad I didn't leave it to a leap of faith whilst away , or I'd be a few grand out of pocket by now . But when the trade is going against you ............. why hang around for the killing when you aren't making it ............?

Unfortunately I followed the herd down also , but jumped off the train way too early .

Wasn't a day ending with a Y either , so it must have been an Abbott day ...... you know , chit happens ...........


----------



## Whiskers

Porper said:


> Evening Wavepicker,
> 
> Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.
> 
> I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.
> 
> As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.
> 
> We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.




Yeah, I noticed that too Porper, back on last page... and it's hanging around there again now.

Bit of a shuddering thought at first. But it might take a few months to get there.

Better, cos I'm heavy gold and copper stocks atm. 

I'm a bit of a fence sitter, based on F/A but usually time my trade on T/A. Always watching I dont get caught up by the proverbiaals.


----------



## Kauri

to harp on an old chestnut... but it still looks impulsive down and corrective up???   I thunk...   

Glittering
.............Kauri


----------



## VViCKiD

What does everyone think of gold stocks in the situation ? Do you think we have hit an area of support on the POG?


----------



## explod

Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-



> BULL MARKET HAS MORE YEARS TO RUN
> 
> Some worry that the March peak was THE peak for gold. This is very unlikely considering the world situation and the economic imbalances today. Plus, demand for gold is growing strongly. It truly is an international, expanding market and it’s easy for people to buy. Last month, for instance, Chinese banks began trading gold futures.
> 
> The gold market is currently more powerful compared to the 1970s. There is much more money behind the move. Whether it be China, India, the Middle East, Russia or elsewhere, the world has mega wealth and it’s acquiring gold.
> 
> What to watch for
> 
> Gold’s 65-week moving average works very well in identifying the major trend (see Chart 3A). The gold price has been consistently above this level since August, 2001. This average provides solid support at $770.  For now, gold is vulnerable below $950 (basis June) and it’ll be weak in a D decline once it stays clearly below $888.
> 
> by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-




  part of the Gold chart... published a couple of minutes ago...

   Glittering .....
.................kauri.. (gum?)


----------



## Porper

explod said:


> What has correctness between methods got to do with this thread.  Do you enjoy trying to pick one side up against the other.
> 
> 
> With t/a and f/a there are infinate variables of time, motion and volume, that I would defy anyone to be able to distinguish who is right or wrong or who wins.
> 
> Surely we are adult investors working at a very serious business.




Sorry, couldn't resist explode, I thought that last line would bring you out.

Yes, we are in a serious business but forums are a place to let off some steam at times and have a bit of a laugh.I personally do not hold any Gold stocksn neither am I short so it really doesn't matter to me if Gold flies or, as I suspect collapses, however if their is a clear indication in the next few weeks where it is going I will trade in that direction.

This I think is the main difference between T/A & F/A.

We will know when we are wrong, I suspect you will hang on for dear life unable to accept you were wrong.



explod said:


> Most of the posters here put forward their best views or take on where the gold price is heading..



I thought I had made it clear what direction I think Gold is heading have I not ?


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-





Hello explod,

Thanks for the Aden Sisters comments. They certainly have a good record with secular trends and I agree with them that the secular trend is up.
But even in secular trends we have multi year retracements(we had a brief one 06 but this one will be bigger). They mention the historical support at the 65Week MA which just so happens to be 764. Even that in itself is a long way down from where we are, but don't forget that just because it has acted as a support level in the past, does not mean it will be the case this time. I prefer to take the cycles and TIME FACTOR into consideration as well. That says we have completed an impulse of a major degree of trend upward since 1999 and therefore should correct back to between 38.5-50% of the whole impulse or the previous 4th wave of one less degree which is the SPAN of the consolidation we had had from May 06 to August last year (635-741) but it could also retrace back as low as the 61.8% level which is 550 but that is lower probability IMO as most wave 2's statistically retrace 38.2-50%.

So I am betting that price wil break the 65W MA on this occasion. Just like the 200 day MA acted as support for the XAO bull run repeatedly and was broken in the current bear campaign. 

I personally like to trade the direction of the trend at whereby I can get as much of a bite of the pie as possible. ie muti week/month swing trades.

Others like you like to hold very long term and ride it out, I don't have the patience or the nerve to do so and find it nerve wracking to give back gains.

But everyone is different

Cheers


----------



## explod

Porper said:


> Sorry, couldn't resist explode, I thought that last line would bring you out.
> 
> Yes, we are in a serious business but forums are a place to let off some steam at times and have a bit of a laugh.I personally do not hold any Gold stocksn neither am I short so it really doesn't matter to me if Gold flies or, as I suspect collapses, however if their is a clear indication in the next few weeks where it is going I will trade in that direction.
> 
> This I think is the main difference between T/A & F/A.
> 
> We will know when we are wrong, I suspect you will hang on for dear life unable to accept you were wrong.
> 
> 
> I thought I had made it clear what direction I think Gold is heading have I not ?




And I thought I had made it clear that it could go down in the shorter period also.  It could also go up and it could also hold at support.   Part of that was by t/a as well.   And I have friends who do not make comments of this thread but follow it closely from a serious perspective.  Making fun can be very missleading to some.    If you want to have fun there are plenty of threads aimed at just that.    It is interesting that many who follow t/a are very dogmatic in just that and can become quite nasty when alternate views are expressed.    I am firmly of the view that t/a is the only way (apart from insider knowledge) that the short term can be guaged.   In the long term it is the trend  and then some f/a to back selections.   So to stamp me as a fundamentalist is a long way off track.   

Interesting on ABC news as I woke up they said that gold had gone down on fears of a US recession.


----------



## Whiskers

VViCKiD said:


> What does everyone think of gold stocks in the situation ? Do you think we have hit an area of support on the POG?




POG seems to be going lower in the short/medium term.

As to the effect on gold stocks, that's gonna be interesting. I'm expecting the USD to firm a bit which would have the effect of lowering the price, but in AUD terms it may not change too much too quickly... assuming the AUD will depreciate as the USD firms. There seems to still be limited supply so it may get down to the impact of speculators divesting as to how low it eventually goes.

But, I'm tipping that any big fall will be pretty short lived. There has been some buyer resistance especially for commercial use at recent levels and because probably most people are still wanting to invest in gold for the longer term, I think if it gets down in the 700's again buyers will be in like bees to a honey pot. A lot of opinion still sees POG around $1,000 or so again towards the end of the year or early next.

So I'm still keen on gold stocks especially near producers and active (undervalued) junior explorers.


----------



## explod

The following explanation from Jim Sinclare indicates where it is at.   




> Jim,
> 
> Everything is going to hell in a hand-basket. Is there any explanation about the major miners' decline and gold?
> 
> CIGA Joe.
> 
> Dear CIGA Joe,
> 
> The following is what has pressured gold and caused short covering in the dollar/euro:
> 
> Media has convinced the public that the Fed will go hawkish, first by decelerating the drop in interest rates. The deceleration has been attributed to the Fed having done the right thing.
> 
> Media has convinced the public that the ECB will reduce interest rates now faster than the Fed, thereby boosting the dollar versus the euro.
> 
> Although the business statistics are negative, the media has held out the carrot that it takes six months for the Fed's action to materialize in the economy so all will be well in six to nine months.
> 
> The idea that the credit crisis is over is the message that firming financials are communicating as media supports that position.
> 
> Media has declared gold as DEAD.
> 
> 90% of the above is raving BS. There is no way the Fed can go hawkish without causing, via the equity market, the revelation that nothing has changed for the better. There is no mention of the impact lower Federal Tax revenues will have on the US Federal Budget deficit and its negative weight on the dollar. There is no mention of the desire of many central banks to diversify out of the dollar when a short covering rally presents itself.
> 
> I feel whatever gold has to do on the downside will be covered by the end of the first week of May. I have written recently on junior gold shares which you can review by clicking here.
> 
> Regards,
> Jim





And if the Fed do not lower rates, as I suspect may be the case then the "we have all been saved" mantra will temporarily push it down even further.


----------



## Porper

explod said:


> Interesting on ABC news as I woke up they said that gold had gone down on fears of a US recession.




Well just goes to show I have no insight to the fundamental reasons as to why Gold or curriencies go up or down, I would have thought Gold has gone up because of a imminent recession.Why would it go down because of this ?

I'll stick to short term using patterns I think.Leave the fundamental stuff to some of you guys.( That is not having a dig, as you say each to their own).


----------



## refined silver

refined silver said:


> Good question. My expected bottom is either $900-905 (in that case already in. Next strong support is $880-890, with very strong support from $850-875.




From 23rd March (page 187)

Still think this is the far more likely scenario than the $600 and $700 being mentioned.

Give a week or so of the usual machinations after a Fed decision, before Gold returns to trend.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I think this is good in a way, apart from my gold portfolio now taking a hit, but still ahead of pleb shares. A nice big wall of worry and doom & gloom for gold! Be patient, get set up for the entries and systems in place to take advantage of a once in a lifetime opportunity, _soon_! I have been naughty and have been selling down over the last few weeks - cash for the bottom feeding frenzy!


----------



## josjes

I have read somewhere before that Gold shares normally foretell the future movement POG. Well, today NCM, LGL, SBM etc move up > 5% from its morning low. I would wager POG will bounce tonight after the Fed announcement. 
Probably most of the speculation regarding the rate cut and future rate cut stop has been priced in already. Comments?


----------



## treefrog

in $A terms, 62% retrace looks good


----------



## sophieyan

"The following link is to a US radio interview where an economist board
member of G.A.T.A. explains the reasons for the recent drop in the price of
gold/silver, why it is temporary, and the reasons it will continue to grow.

http://www.kereport.com/DailyRadio/Daily042408.mp3

G.A.T.A. (www.gata.org) is the "Gold Anti Trust Action committee", an
organisation who publish evidence to support their view  that  the bullion
banks have artificially supressed the price of gold since the late 80's to
around 2005 by selling and leasing bullion in order to keep gold low and
paper currencies relatively strong; and that they are no longer able to do
so because they no longer have the gold reserves to deal in.  This means the
long term future for gold is great, but with big, temporary price
fluctuations.


----------



## Jordanlee

GATA went to Washington
Link:http://www.rapidtrends.com/blog/2008/04/21/gata-went-to-washington/
Posted by: Alex
21 Apr, 2008 
As many of you know, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) just had a conference in Washington DC. For those of you who follow GATA’s work, you know that they have accumulated an overwhelming body of evidence that points to the ‘management’ of the gold price.

I have had mixed feelings over the likelihood of such a conspiracy, and until I can prove something or at least be able to use available evidence to form an educated opinion I tend to dis-believe such things. However, one thing I can say after attending the conference this weekend, is that there are some very suspicious interactions on the part of the Fed, the Treasury, and the IMF when dealing with GATA. 

Specifically, GATA has requested through the Freedom of Information Act, information that supports the governments’ claims of the current physical gold reserve of the United States. One thing that I find very curious is that to date the Fed, and Treasury have failed to produce any materials in response to this request.

Now, maybe I am just being cynical here, but I think most folks who have any common sense would agree that if the government does not want the public to have transparency into an issue, it is usually because it is being naughty, and there is something that they don’t want the public to know. For the life of me I cant see why there would be anything to keep secret, even if it is a National Security issue, unless of course the gold isn’t there anymore, in which case it would very well indeed be a National Security issue. Now of course if the gold IS gone, then it just supports GATA’s assertion that it has been used to suppress the gold price for decades.


I will recap what I got from each speaker in brief:


Dr. Edwin Vieira Jr., The Foremost Authority in the United States on Constitutional Money –

Only a return to Gold and Silver can stabilize our currency. 
Desperate people start to ask questions, and shortly thereafter that, assign blame. If our politicians want a long and successful career ( or life ) they should be aware of this. 

Reginald Howe, Golden Sextant Advisors LLC –

Out of all commodities, gold is the one best suited for use as money 
The ‘gold price’, should actually be termed ‘exchange rate’ as with all currencies 
Central Banks are now lending gold at negative lease rates, effectively paying institutions to sell gold into the market 
Since the day the gold window has been closed, the Supreme Court has refused to hear any case challenging the current monetary system 

James Turk, Goldmoney –

The Chinese are indeed buying gold, using intermediaries and proxies to do so 
Chinese Proverb: Wisdom begins by calling a thing its proper name. Gold is not an investment, it is money. 
Do not put dollars into gold expecting a return, expect preservation of purchasing power. To get a return, it implies there must be a risk, and gold has held its purchasing power better than anything else in history. 
We are looking at huge problems, possibly as soon as this summer. 
Be prepared for Capital Controls in the US soon. 

Peter George, Trinity Asset Management -

Many hedge funds are having liquidity issues right now, when they see a bid, they are hitting it. 
It will take 10 years to bring new ultra-deep mining operations at 5000meters or deeper online. 
Since 1994 virtually all commodities have gone vertical and pulled away from gold. 
Goldfields has the largest un-hedged position in the WITS Basin, which holds an approximately 40,000 more tons of gold. 
Anglogold Ashanti is hedged $7Billion 
Barrick is hedged $9Billion 
Oil will go to $500 a barrel in time 

Adrian Douglas, Market Force Analysis

Gold is the investment opportunity of a lifetime. 

John Embry, Sprott Asset Management –

This is the best opportunity I have seen in 45 years in the investment business 

In summary, by hearing views from almost every sector that touches the gold and silver markets such as mining, fund managers, analysts, attorneys, constitutional law experts, private bullion custodians, it appears obvious that there is indeed something fishy going on with the price of gold. The only players that affect the gold markets who didn’t have anything to say was the Fed, the Treasury, and the CFTC. How curious.


This is all fine and good of course, because I own gold and silver, so when this whole thing does come unglued and make the Enron scandal look like romper room on Paxil in comparison, some of us will be getting quite rich.


----------



## explod

Every evening this week at 6.15pm our time (the dead of the night 4.am US) approximately the $US has risen sharply only to fall back each 24 hour period.   The gold price is pushed down at the same time also to rise again gradually over the next 24 hours, albeit not as much.

The GATA data of course is well known to us gold bugs but the desperation now of the Fed and the US financial establishment to pretend thier way forward has become recklessly blatant.

I have felt all along that all will be done to suppress the gold price till the Presidential election at the end of the year.  However the desperate efforts being made now to hold the load on the breaking truck lend me to think as you Uncle that a tumultuous uptick for gold may be closer than we think.

Have a friend in the US who has been buying and storing his physical offshore as there are real fears that the US will reinstate the Gold Confiscation Act in a last ditch effort to save thier currency.

We live in interesting time.


----------



## Whiskers

Oh dear, It's going further south... 855's.

Wish the USD/AUD would turn around a bit more first for the sake of our gold stocks.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Every evening this week at 6.15pm our time (the dead of the night 4.am US) approximately the $US has risen sharply only to fall back each 24 hour period. The gold price is pushed down at the same time also to rise again gradually over the next 24 hours, albeit not as much.
> 
> The GATA data of course is well known to us gold bugs but the desperation now of the Fed and the US financial establishment to pretend thier way forward has become recklessly blatant.
> 
> I have felt all along that all will be done to suppress the gold price till the Presidential election at the end of the year. However the desperate efforts being made now to hold the load on the breaking truck lend me to think as you Uncle that a tumultuous uptick for gold may be closer than we think.
> 
> Have a friend in the US who has been buying and storing his physical offshore as there are real fears that the US will reinstate the Gold Confiscation Act in a last ditch effort to save thier currency.
> 
> We live in interesting time.




  Something else to take into consideration??  I thunk..  Core CPE data showed that price pressures remain held in in the stumbling US with the index up only around 2.1% or so over the year . The subdued inflation may be seen to add fresh pressure on gold, a typical inflation hedge?? or maybe nott...


 Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Idol ramblings - USD may have hit the top of it's channel (73), corresponding to gold touching 850 'support'. They may swing through a bit but maybe a reversal of momentum close for USD, oil & gold back towards historic ratio's? Funny how the smack down started right on the Nymex open??


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Idol ramblings - USD may have hit the top of it's channel (73), corresponding to gold touching 850 'support'. They may swing through a bit but maybe a reversal of momentum close for USD, oil & gold back towards historic ratio's? Funny how the smack down started right on the Nymex open??





  A report from *Sanford C. Bernstein* this week says that money in commodity funds has now *jumped 48% just this year alone*, rising to $250 bln from $169 bln. *This has helped fuel record gains in oil prices and firm commodities* despite evidently slowing growth that will cut demand.  A number of calls have emerged this week for the bubble to burst due to confirmation of the sharp speculative inflows into the market.... mmmmmmm..  CRB not looking too flash currently either??  

  Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri said:


> A report from *Sanford C. Bernstein* this week says that money in commodity funds has now *jumped 48% just this year alone*, rising to $250 bln from $169 bln. *This has helped fuel record gains in oil prices and firm commodities* despite evidently slowing growth that will cut demand. A number of calls have emerged this week for the bubble to burst due to confirmation of the sharp speculative inflows into the market.... mmmmmmm.. CRB not looking too flash currently either??
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Well I don't know where it's all gone, it's certainly not propping up gold, although if 850 holds, and rebounds, then it is bullish again. If not, then...... 
I notice the ETF's are having to jetison substantial gold holdings, doesn't help at all!! Still, it's a currency so that will ultimatly be the dominant influence I presume?


----------



## ShareIt

Gold stocks are starting to show short term reversal signs, namely NCM, so I would say Gold will probably hit $840 (previous support) and rally up from there


----------



## wavepicker

ShareIt said:


> Gold stocks are starting to show short term reversal signs, namely NCM, so I would say Gold will probably hit $840 (previous support) and rally up from there





I do think we will get a small rally, but it will be short lived.(perhaps a day or two at best) Cycles multiframe analysis shows all cycles pointed hard down here. 

Prices need to reach a climax or an EXTREME away from a nominal trend. The only timeframe we have that situation is on the 1Hr Cycles(see attached). All higher timeframes are pointed down. 

One can possibly say that the longer timeframes have not caught up yet if it rallies on the 1 Hr, but that is not the case. This is leading methodology i am working with here. There are no lagging indiactors being used.

I have posted analysis for these on the XJO on another thread, at it barely puts a foot wrong, very hard to dispute it as tool.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> A report from *Sanford C. Bernstein* this week says that money in commodity funds has now *jumped 48% just this year alone*, rising to $250 bln from $169 bln.






Uncle Festivus said:


> Well I don't know where it's all gone, it's certainly not propping up gold, although if 850 holds, and rebounds, then it is bullish again. If not, then......




ETF's aside commodities funds are not long only. Is it that the as the punters are jumping on the Bull wagon flooding the money managers with cash they are flipping the enthusiasm??


----------



## ShareIt

wavepicker said:


> I do think we will get a small rally, but it will be short lived.(perhaps a day or two at best) Cycles multiframe analysis shows all cycles pointed hard down here.
> 
> Prices need to reach a climax or an EXTREME away from a nominal trend. The only timeframe we have that situation is on the 1Hr Cycles(see attached). All higher timeframes are pointed down.
> 
> One can possibly say that the longer timeframes have not caught up yet if it rallies on the 1 Hr, but that is not the case. This is leading methodology i am working with here. There are no lagging indiactors being used.
> 
> I have posted analysis for these on the XJO on another thread, at it barely puts a foot wrong, very hard to dispute it as tool.
> 
> Cheers




I always find that stocks lead the way before the actual commodity takes off... so we may not get the rally soon, but it looks very much on the horizon as judging by what gold stocks are doing


----------



## barrett

Wavepicker, that analysis you posted is excellent but I've been unable to find any references to that approach.  Is it also known by another name?



ShareIt said:


> I always find that stocks lead the way before the actual commodity takes off... so we may not get the rally soon, but it looks very much on the horizon as judging by what gold stocks are doing




These past two days the US gold stocks have outperformed $US gold (ie, little change in the indices after a hefty drop in gold)... and that _may_support the idea of a short term rally.. but medium term they still look pretty awful to me, with these big H&S formations in the major HUI and XAU indices confirming the breakdown in gold.  These daily charts were made 2 days ago but no real change since..

Being always long the stocks, I can hardly bear to look at the HUI target of 320.. on the bright side, we are more than halfway to that rough target, and I will soon start accumulating the world's biggest silver producer CXC, recently trading at a 40% discount to last month's prices, apparently for no good reason other than a correction in the price of silver. If companies like this fall any further out of favour, sooner or later they may attract some interest from value investors (barring say, a halving of PM prices). CXC for instance is trading at a 2009 consensus earnings PE of 8!
cheers


----------



## barrett

Is anyone here familiar with the Elliott Wave analyst Alf Field?
I had not heard of Alf before, but apparently some gold timers hold him in high regard.. please let me know if you have an opinion of his work.

Based on his EW analysis Alf expects that we are now at the bottom of the market. 
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1209648332.php

This seems a little premature, but then again what happens at every interim bottom in the gold market?  'We thought it would go down more!' lol well anyway I usually find that.

I don't have much information about Alf's track record but I did find his similar commentary from July 2007..
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1184079780.php


----------



## treefrog

treefrog said:


> yellow run 400 up, 200 down,
> blue run 300 (roughly) up, so 150 down - ie to 910??
> 
> note this is Gold in $A which facotrs in fluctuations in the $A (obviously)
> 
> note also if the current weekly down candle ends this week as a down candle we have a *weekly* downtrend with plenty of momentum space left to run lower




are we there yet?

original and update attached


----------



## wavepicker

barrett said:


> Wavepicker, that analysis you posted is excellent but I've been unable to find any references to that approach.  Is it also known by another name?




Hello Barret,

Over the past four years I have poured my time into the study of Cycles Analysis. I have looked at the works of various cycles technicians some current and some old.  From these works, and my own background( Noise and Vibration Engineering) I have fused together this approach that allows me to trade the market using multi timeframe cycles analysis with very good results. I am not finished developing this tool yet, I figure I need another year to do it in Amibroker or XL Analyzer. The current GFT paltform has certain limitations for forecasting in future timeframes.

To utilize this approach one needs to understand the mechanics behind it, and also there is a fair amount of numbercrunching to establish the correct cycles in play for the the respective timeframes.
I don't use this tool in isolation(although one could quite easily) but combine it with EW and fixed cycle analysis as well. 

Send me a mail and I will go into more detail.


----------



## josjes

treefrog said:


> are we there yet?
> 
> original and update attached




Treefrog, what is the bottom half of the chart displaying ? How does it serve as a useful indicator to predict the trend ?  

If one can predict the future using past historical behaviour (May-Oct 2006 correction, I would say we are close to the bottom now.


----------



## josjes

barrett said:


> Is anyone here familiar with the Elliott Wave analyst Alf Field?
> I had not heard of Alf before, but apparently some gold timers hold him in high regard.. please let me know if you have an opinion of his work.
> 
> Based on his EW analysis Alf expects that we are now at the bottom of the market.
> http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1209648332.php
> 
> This seems a little premature, but then again what happens at every interim bottom in the gold market?  'We thought it would go down more!' lol well anyway I usually find that.
> 
> I don't have much information about Alf's track record but I did find his similar commentary from July 2007..
> http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1184079780.php




I've been following Alf Field's work for the past 2 months. Been pouring through his past gold update since 2005 from kitco's commentary archives. I have to say he is quite good in predicting the trend, but so so in price movement. I find it interesting comparing Wavepicker and Alf Field EW interpretation of gold movement. This goes to show that TA is quite an art, it depends on your interpretation and nuance. The two interpretation gives 2 different prediction. 

There is also this link that summarizes his past works on EW gold. 
http://www.cycle-of-time.net/gold.htm


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> April 1st...as the long-term fundementalists point out there is every reason for Gold to just keep on going one way... up... which, if you pick your timeframe, is almost guaranteed in any assett class,... however, in the present where I dwell, I see the *possibility *of the shiny metal heading down to the mid-low 800's, and am/have been positioned that way since Maxwells hammer.. with the psychological and tech level of 900 being the main stumbling block...
> not a prediction, just a (now risk-free) tradable possibility..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  Well we made it to the mid $850's, looked for on April fools day, hit on May day.. (now there is an omen..)...  where to next,...I wonder..    ..

  Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## explod

Having my periodic look at the long term gold chart and I allways find the changing picture gives one a comforting lead to what is really going on.

If we look back to 2001 we see clearly that after the first uptrend seesaw we see from  about US$400 (we will call it the floor price) about June 05  a definate uptrend to a US$710 blowoff top in April/May 2006.   Then a 50% correction takes place to about US$570 ending about Sept 06.

So from this next floor price of US$570 the next uptrend goes to US$1030 to the blowoff top.   Now this next retracement is still underway and for it to pan out to another 50%down it needs to go to US$790.    And yes we are well on the way.

A lot of pundits are starting to call the bottom at this level.  However as I have repeated, gold is a threatening signal that paper money is not healthy.   The political and financial establishments will resist that exposure for as long as they can hold out.  We know that they will eventually fail but it is fair to say that we may have little satisfation till the US Fed election at the end of the year.  IM very HO


----------



## treefrog

josjes said:


> Treefrog, what is the bottom half of the chart displaying ? How does it serve as a useful indicator to predict the trend ?
> 
> If one can predict the future using past historical behaviour (May-Oct 2006 correction, I would say we are close to the bottom now.




hi jj

the bottom indicator is the Chande Momentum Oscillator - I find it often gives good early signals of, (now this is the way I use it, don't think there are many that do) *momentum trend*established (usually ahead of price) and an early break of momentum trend particularly in the overbought/sold zone, is an early warning of price reversal.

The trick to getting good signals from those indicators is to adjust the indicators so that they "tune in" to recent price and momentum action because the market "mood" is often changing and you need to adjust with it

You might get a better understanding from my posts on the SPI non gann thread where I have been posting the 1hr chart signals with 13LR and 13 Chande
combinations I like to use are 13/13; 26/26; and 52/52 but the 52 chande often gives poor momentum indications as it is "too averaged" if there is such a term


----------



## >Apocalypto<

see u later 850 support :microwave:rippergun


----------



## barrett

yes this should in theory bring in some real support for the US dollar: job losses in the non farm payroll data far, far less than expected.  Not too much of a surprise given that yoy US tax receipts have been increasing for about the past 6 weeks.  I'm thinking this could provide the 'meat in the sandwich' for gold's wave C and be the catalyst to work off the remaining bullish sentiment before the next upleg.. and yet, after a brief selloff on low volume, gold is moving up on very high volume as might be expected at a major turning point..?


----------



## Whiskers

>Apocalypto< said:


> see u later 850 support :microwave:rippergun




Well, that got it up off its ass, didn't it!


----------



## barrett

what is it with these americans.  Day after day I come out on top scalping the Euro market.. then every night without fail the yanks come in and screw everything up.  Manipulation, little 'games', nonsensical price action, may as well be shopping at woolies and coles, everyone gets fleeced... except of course whoever's running the 'shop'.  Is anyone here successfully scalping this action since the nfp announcement?  I think I'd be a lot richer if I just went to sleep at 11pm along with the rest of the world rather than paying these people to send me insane!


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> Something else to take into consideration??  I thunk..  Core CPE data showed that price pressures remain held in in the stumbling US with the index up only around 2.1% or so over the year . The subdued inflation may be seen to add fresh pressure on gold, a typical inflation hedge?? or maybe nott...
> 
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




The official CPI numbers are so pummelled, tortured and water-boarded they will confess to anything, and are so far removed from reality, everyone knows they are a joke. The really dangerous thing for authorities is that inflationary expectations are taking over as everyone sees, gas, food, utilities, school fees, medical etc heading way up. For an Administration which runs totally on spin and PR, inflationary expectations which take a hold are their worst nightmare. 

Gold is resuming its march to $1600 very shortly.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> see u later 850 support :microwave:rippergun




Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?



Referring to 1300 on the 2nd maybe? Otherwise, that looks to be holding up pretty well there. Damn, I ´d love to see a higher low and high, but sentiment seems to be going financials and all ´s hunkey dorey right now. Surely not!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Referring to 1300 on the 2nd maybe? Otherwise, that looks to be holding up pretty well there. Damn, I ´d love to see a higher low and high, but sentiment seems to be going financials and all ´s hunkey dorey right now. Surely not!



That was when the NFP was announced, but recoverd quickly thereafter. All very convenient if you ask me. Read between the lines and wait for the revisions.


----------



## Kauri

refined silver said:


> The official CPI numbers are so pummelled, tortured and water-boarded they will confess to anything, and are so far removed from reality, everyone knows they are a joke. The really dangerous thing for authorities is that inflationary expectations are taking over as everyone sees, gas, food, utilities, school fees, medical etc heading way up. For an Administration which runs totally on spin and PR, inflationary expectations which take a hold are their worst nightmare.
> 
> *Gold is resuming its march to $1600 very shortly*.






Uncle Festivus said:


> Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?




  Likewise, UF has posed my question...


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> Likewise, UF has posed my question...




Hi Kauri, sometimes your posts a tad cryptic. I assume you're asking for supporting evidence for the gold $1600? It was in the post. Inflationary expectations and real inflation will very soon trump spin and PR and official figures which are treated as a joke. The fundamental trend will resume very shortly, eveidence of fundamentals I've posted a few times recently, in a list the last time.

As for TA, evidence, I also said Gold and silver have a habit of looking their worst before resuming trend over. Check a long term chart - last 8 years. I also posted recently, long term trend line breaks were actually best buying times in gold, in this bull. Have a look.


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> The fundamental trend will resume very shortly, eveidence of fundamentals I've posted a few times recently, in a list the last time.





Yes but when will the price trend continue?  Are they the same?
IMO fundementals lag the price.



refined silver said:


> Check a long term chart - last 8 years. I also posted recently, long term trend line breaks were actually best buying times in gold, in this bull. Have a look.




You are projecting the past trend into the future here, assuming the same buying conditions will exist again. We are interested in what is most likely to happen in the future not what has happened in the past. Past patterns can repeat again in the future, and understanding and recognizing when or are about to form again is a the key.  The market is leaving us clues ATM in the form of patterns and the pattern of trend. That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside. Yes, chances are we get a rally at some point in time, but more liekly a bounce before a resumption IMO. If evidence of something more bullish materializes then so bit, but that has not happened yet.

Cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Yes but when will the price trend continue?  Are they the same?
> IMO fundementals lag the price.
> 
> 
> 
> You are projecting the past trend into the future here, assuming the same buying conditions will exist again. We are interested in what is most likely to happen in the future not what has happened in the past. Past patterns can repeat again in the future, and understanding and recognizing when or are about to form again is a the key.  The market is leaving us clues ATM in the form of patterns and the pattern of trend. That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside. Yes, chances are we get a rally at some point in time, but more liekly a bounce before a resumption IMO. If evidence of something more bullish materializes then so bit, but that has not happened yet.
> 
> Cheers




Interesting that you have wandered into the realm of fundamental consideration "...assuming the same buying conditions will exist again."   

It may well correct down further but the long term uptrend is well intact on which I described on this thread last night.


----------



## refined silver

> wavepicker said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yes but when will the price trend continue?  Are they the same?
> IMO fundementals lag the price.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In the quote was the answer. "Very shortly"
> 
> Fundamentals DO NOT lag price til the end of a long term secular trend.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You are projecting the past trend into the future here, assuming the same buying conditions will exist again. We are interested in what is most likely to happen in the future not what has happened in the past.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> For a TA or cycle guy to say he doesn't consider the past seems a bit silly.
> 
> The same upward trend will continue becasue the fundamentals are if anything, even more bullish than they have been for much of this trend. (Refer to the list posted a day or two ago, if you've forgotten, or don't what they are.)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The market is leaving us clues ATM in the form of patterns and the pattern of trend. That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside. Cheers
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Disagree. The correction is either over of very close to being so IMHO.
Click to expand...


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Interesting that you have wandered into the realm of fundamental consideration "...assuming the same buying conditions will exist again."
> 
> It may well correct down further but the long term uptrend is well intact on which I described on this thread last night.




Hello James, 

I am doing no so such thing, I was referring to RS's comments there. As far as my opinion is concerned it is bearish and remains bearish until such time that the market says otherwise. I concede that I could be wrong with this analysis as anything is possible, but feel the technical evidence is stacked in the bears favour at present. I am also very well aquainted with EW patterns that give high probability conditions( through trial and error and experience). I have paid my dues in learning these patterns through the years, just like others have in learning their craft.

I am not hoping for further declines to rub the bulls up the wrong way, just trade it as I see it. I have made it quite clear to you I am secular trend bullish Gold and precious metals, but refuse to hold during a hefty decline. There will be plenty of buying opportunities for precious metals in the next 8-9 years IMO, but now is not the time IMO.

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

wavepicker said:


> That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside.




Fridays COT report very interesting:

Large commercials added nearly 6,000 new longs and covered over 8,000 shorts.

The trading funds covered longs, but didn't add to shorts.

The small specs added over 12,000 new shorts! 

Although, still net long, its the small specs who are turning most bearish! Same on this board! Not the best indicator!


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> For a TA or cycle guy to say he doesn't consider the past seems a bit silly.



I didn't say I don't consider the past. I just consider it completely different to you.

You are projecting a trend into the future relative to a trend line and assume it will continue, because it has done so in the past.

I look at past patterns, cycles and recognize that they can repeat again at certain times in the future but do not assume they will continue to repeat because they have done is in a past trend. In fact I use them as a guide to do the opposite,  or  if a certain type of pattern has formed, then chances are a completely different one will form next time around. It's called the "LAW OF ALTERNATION".  

Patterns are your best tool IMO. In the end what we aim to do is recognize when a trend is in place and stay with it until it is at risk of ending.  The pattern of the current trend(current juncture) is your best friend.

If you think what I am saying about TA is a crock of **** and only FA guys make $$  which you have done in the past, then consider this guy

Dan Zanger


http://www.chartpattern.com/cf/index.cfm


who has made and continue to make millions purely from chart pattern analysis. One of the books on his reading list is EWP. He must be doing something right!


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> Fridays COT report very interesting:
> 
> Large commercials added nearly 6,000 new longs and covered over 8,000 shorts.
> 
> The trading funds covered longs, but didn't add to shorts.
> 
> The small specs added over 12,000 new shorts!
> 
> Although, still net long, its the small specs who are turning most bearish! Same on this board! Not the best indicator!




I won't dispute we will get bounces now and again.


----------



## Kauri

One thing that has me a tad baffled is that from $0 through to $1030 and now back to $850 odd gives a gentle dip of the best part of 18%... and a lot of Fundementalists have been telling anyone wiiling to listen that _very soon_ the uptrend will resume and $1200... $1500.. $1600.. gold is just around the corner..  and backing it up with all manner of reasoning... well the peak was in mid March, we are now into May and down near 18%... so just when is soon, and... why are the reasons that were going to cause the uptrend to resume near everyday since mid March.. stll valid now, having failed to pull up the gently easing decline so far??? 
  If I post where I think Gold is heading I am asked for a price within a couple of dollars, within a range of a couple of days, and solid reasons why.....  I wonder if I could get away within 18%, 40 days odd, etc... 
  Just curious, not critical..  

 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> One thing that has me a tad baffled is that from $0 through to $1030 and now back to $850 odd gives a gentle dip of the best part of 18%... and a lot of Fundementalists have been telling anyone wiiling to listen that _very soon_ the uptrend will resume and $1200... $1500.. $1600.. gold is just around the corner..  and backing it up with all manner of reasoning... well the peak was in mid March, we are now into May and down near 18%... so just when is soon, and... why are the reasons that were going to cause the uptrend to resume near everyday since mid March.. stll valid now, having failed to pull up the gently easing decline so far???
> If I post where I think Gold is heading I am asked for a price within a couple of dollars, within a range of a couple of days, and solid reasons why.....  I wonder if I could get away within 18%, 40 days odd, etc...
> Just curious, not critical..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




You trade the 3 minute bar, others follow the weekly, (and fundamentals), for general direction.

Again not critical at all, just I think this explains the difference.


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> You trade the 3 minute bar, others follow the weekly, (and fundamentals), for general direction.
> 
> Again not critical at all, just I think this explains the difference.




Yep but I agree with both.   I have learnt from reading economists that the US$ is eventually doomed because it is backed by debt and they have no productive GDP.  Throughout history this dynamic has always transerred the value back to gold.   Inflation adjusted gold has a long way up to go.

When, I do not know and I think most of us are agreed on those basic ideas.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?

This chart and others at 
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?




850$ support was a area that is a support point mentioned by another member.


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?
> 
> This chart and others at
> http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf




Well it did exactly that in 05/06 and if it follows in the same way on this correctio there could be a bit more downside to shake out yet.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Silver,

Why don't u use your own skill to tell us were u think Gold is heading not your paid data service. I want to see u make a call based of your own mind.

Give us a number so we can poke fun at u if u miss it.


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?
> 
> This chart and others at
> http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf




  Just out of interest, what was this spruiker saying when Gold was pausing  on $1030..  did he allow that it may retrace to the 50% @ $850, or is it only a Guru's predictive possibility now that it has happened??


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Just out of interest, what was this spruiker saying when Gold was pausing  on $1030..  did he allow that it may retrace to the 50% @ $850, or is it only a Guru's predictive possibility now that it has happened??




Great point Kauri!

Easy to say it after the fact but dose that help all the poor bugger that bought in at $900 - $1000 while he was most likely telling them it's going to the moon.

What I can remember is Wavepicker, Nick Radge, Kauri my self were all warning about gold weakness for a while now. (check our posts) But hey we had no idea. Anyone can pick a number then cover their ass when it fails to happen. 

I still think to many people in here base all there hopes on other peoples analysis with out really learning to have their own opinion based off what they think. I really think that is sad. 

but each to their own.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Yep but I agree with both.   I have learnt from reading economists that the US$ is eventually doomed because it is backed by debt and they have no productive GDP.  Throughout history this dynamic has always transerred the value back to gold.   Inflation adjusted gold has a long way up to go.




 Hello James, do you have evidence to support such a statement re the USD and GDP? I challenge it in part,  as myth for there is little correlation between GDP and the US Dollar. The "historical" evidence for R Silver is here in this chart. Mind you the chart and article was made 4 years ago, but I think it gives enough info for one to see if there is any historical correlation.

BTW,  I would take what an economist says about market activities with a dose of salt, many have very poor track records. Unless their name is Martin Armostrong or Stephen Roach.


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/05/02/US-Dollar-Death-By-Deficit.aspx


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> Just out of interest, what was this spruiker saying when Gold was pausing  on $1030..  did he allow that it may retrace to the 50% @ $850, or is it only a Guru's predictive possibility now that it has happened??




As for "spruiker", this guy sells no newsletters, no services, no anything. So he is "spruiking" nothing. 

He was called "Mr Gold" by the WSJ in the 70s and then the only top he called was 887.50 which was exactly correct. He then publicly claimed gold was dead for at least 15 years and the WSJ ran an article saying "Gold bull takes of his horns". 

He has said he will call no intermediate tops in this gold bull, because every newsletter writer and dog does it continually. He does advise using simple TA, and selling a third into strength and rebuying on weakness. For the investors, who have been in since under $300s (including me), to drop from $1030 to $850 is part of normal market activity and will happen all the rest of the way up. It can be ignored for the investor, it can be traded for the aggressive investor, or trader. And yes at $996 he did say if you couldn't see the correction coming, its time to stop trading.  

In 2001 he called $1650, and at every correction where every newsletter writer was calling for the end of the bull, or much deeper losses he was always the bullish and correct one. Show me other writers with similar records.

(There are a few who have called this from 2001, but many other supposed gold experts, have had their followers out for 70-80% of the gains
of this bull, as I've detailed in previous posts a few months ago)


----------



## refined silver

>Apocalypto< said:


> Silver,
> 
> Why don't u use your own skill to tell us were u think Gold is heading not your paid data service. I want to see u make a call based of your own mind.
> 
> Give us a number so we can poke fun at u if u miss it.




The only subscription I have is Gold Oz, to their cheapest option, which is just a list updated quarterly of every one of the 380 precious metals stocks on the ASX. It contains a paragraph or two thumbnail on every stock including shares issued, price, MC, projects, resources etc. 

To trawl through that then gives info for a list to further research, and buy the best. I've done the same with US and Canadian PM stocks, although without any subscriptions.

My target in early 2002 was $1650, and then later around $5,000 to $6000. Again not in a straight line, and to be traded if you wish, but only with a portion of your portfolio, as the greatest danger has been, and is, being out of the market when it heads up.

Oh, and energy, base metals and strategic resources are also in there.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

What is _your_ call from here? (Sorry, you left yourself way open here )



>Apocalypto< said:


> 850$ support was a area that is a support point mentioned by another member.






>Apocalypto< said:


> Silver,
> 
> Why don't u use your own skill to tell us were u think Gold is heading not your paid data service. I want to see u make a call based of your own mind.
> 
> Give us a number so we can poke fun at u if u miss it.






>Apocalypto< said:


> I still think to many people in here base all there hopes on other peoples analysis with out really learning to have their own opinion based off what they think. I really think that is sad.
> 
> but each to their own.


----------



## treefrog

Uncle Festivus said:


> For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?
> 
> This chart and others at
> http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf




Unc.
there are quite a few "would be chartists" who don't know where to put their original fib points and therefore their retraces are sus. - this is the case with the thumbnail here - it takes the correct levels (red) but they don't suit the arguement being put (that we have a 50% retrace) so redraws them to an irrelevant point (blue) and wow! look at that a 50% retrace of something.

The run (leg) must be from the start of the run (and this needs to be obvious) to the end of the run ( and this also needs to be obvious) 

but calling 850 and price action 845/855 means 850 (for mine)
but buy the same token need more than two bars at that level to meaningfully call "its held"


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> What is _your_ call from here? (Sorry, you left yourself way open here )




   I've got a call   
      ... it will trade at $1500... someday... when the uptrend resumes... until then... it may drop further.... or it may have started ..tentatively ..to be building a base.. 
.......See if I'm not right... soon...  

   Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## wavepicker

treefrog said:


> Unc.
> there are quite a few "would be chartists" who don't know where to put their original fib points and therefore their retraces are sus. - this is the case with the thumbnail here - it takes the correct levels (red) but they don't suit the arguement being put (that we have a 50% retrace) so redraws them to an irrelevant point (blue) and wow! look at that a 50% retrace of something.
> 
> The run (leg) must be from the start of the run (and this needs to be obvious) to the end of the run ( and this also needs to be obvious)
> 
> but calling 850 and price action 845/855 means 850 (for mine)
> but buy the same token need more than two bars at that level to meaningfully call "its held"




Totally agree with you there treefrog re the fibs


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> What is _your_ call from here? (Sorry, you left yourself way open here )




Left myself open, no not at all. My question has been answered and I will remember those price targets mentioned by R S.

As to my thoughts on where any market will go. I don't tell markets were to go any more, I listen and wait for the market to me what to do.

So like I just said what i write below is pure guessing based on what I can see on the current daily chart.

The sharp rise up was built on speculation and could not be sustained johnny come latelys finally got wind of the gold rally that began at the break of 700 last year they are now being sold out and we have fallen very quickly back down. Buyers made two attempts to halt the rise which failed and added to the speed of the decline. I based off what I can see I believe lower lows will be reached. I think we may see a small bounce of the current level which will be sold down again. I believe we are going back into the seven hundreds.

If the momentum continues to pick for the sellers then I think $690 is a target.

cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> So like I just said what i write below is pure guessing based on what I can see on the current daily chart.
> 
> If the momentum continues to pick for the sellers then I think $690 is a target.
> 
> cheers




I guess we need a chart to indicate how you arrived at these guesses? 

My view is that gold is a momentum entity ie it has it's periods of advance then a period of retrace, with a big emphasis on the time proponent as much as anything else, time to clear the decks in readiness for the next leg. It's predictable in that the intractable issues facing the US & the $US have not been adequately adressed, and in fact may have gotten worse. 

I don't see the next leg up for gold happening until the bounce in equites and the $US has run it's course (Wavepicker???). Another possibility is that an interesting juncture is near in perhaps we could possibly have a rising DOW at the same time as a rising gold price, both fueled by spec liquidity (from the pump priming?), while the real economy stagnates? We live in interesting times.


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> I guess we need a chart to indicate how you arrived at these guesses?




I am sure Apocalyto will be forth coming UF. What is your view on Gold? I would be most interested along with the reasons/justifications why?

I am interested because you had a view that the USD would continue to collapse and at present I and other see otherwise( i.e. a multi year pause/rally) before continuing the secular bear trend.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> I am sure Apocalyto will be forth coming UF. What is your view on Gold? I would be most interested along with the reasons/justifications why?
> 
> I am interested because you had a view that the USD would continue to collapse and at present I and other see otherwise( i.e. a multi year pause/rally) before continuing the secular bear trend.
> 
> Cheers



Yo are too fast , see my previous edited post. Don't know about the multi year aspect, I give it a few weeks at most, or at least till data from the real economy starts filtering through, data that cannot be 'massaged' to be interpreted for anything other than for what it is.

I also see it as a purely 'technical' bounce as the underlying fundamentals continue to deteriorate.

I recall not so long ago that a low was being called because everything had already been 'priced in', but it has been proven that that was not the case, and I think there is further room for 'correction' in the not too distant future, and the commensurate collateral upside for gold, _again_.


----------



## josjes

This USD rally vs POG negative correlation is not always true.

Back in June 2005 - Dec 2005, POG AND USD climbed together and correlate positively. 

Can anyone remember the background as to why this happened? What did the market look like at the time ? And is it then reasonable to expect the same could happen this time around? 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&st=2005-01-01&en=2005-12-31&id=p23622217122


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> I guess we need a chart to indicate how you arrived at these guesses?
> 
> My view is that gold is a momentum entity ie it has it's periods of advance then a period of retrace, with a big emphasis on the time proponent as much as anything else, time to clear the decks in readiness for the next leg. It's predictable in that the intractable issues facing the US & the $US have not been adequately adressed, and in fact may have gotten worse.
> 
> I don't see the next leg up for gold happening until the bounce in equites and the $US has run it's course (Wavepicker???). Another possibility is that an interesting juncture is near in perhaps we could possibly have a rising DOW at the same time as a rising gold price, both fueled by spec liquidity (from the pump priming?), while the real economy stagnates? We live in interesting times.




Here is the chart UF. I gathered since u trade Gold u would have been failure with the current daily chart.

I see no prices in your thoughts. your post reminds me of a guru report. u give some idea but no price to be held to. 

So where in price terms will Gold go to UF?

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> here is the chart UF,
> 
> I see no prices in your thoughts. your post reminds me of a guru report. u give some idea but no price to be held to.
> 
> so where in price terms will Gold go to UF?
> 
> Cheers




Yes, it's a chart of the price of gold alright, but I still can't see how you derived your analysis.

No I'm not a guru, but thanks for the compliment 

Point of reference for history buffs of this thread = Aug 07. $US dollar index = approx 80, gold = approx $680 - draw your own conclusions from predictions at the time?

A comparison of gold to other 'stuff' - draw your own conclusions?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, it's a chart of the price of gold alright, but I still can't see how you derived your analysis.
> 
> No I'm not a guru, but thanks for the compliment
> 
> Point of reference for history buffs of this thread = Aug 07. $US dollar index = approx 80, gold = approx $680 - draw your own conclusions from predictions at the time?
> 
> A comparison of gold to other 'stuff' - draw your own conclusions?




i posted $690 as a low u post $680 so why do I need to post a chart? lol.

that was the exact chart i used to determine my price. UF use your eye's and your mind!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> i posted $690 as a low u post $680 so why do I need to post a chart? lol.
> 
> that was the exact chart i used to determine my price. UF use your eye's and your mind!




No, I think you have misread my post - I'm not saying $680 at all, I was saying that was the price back in Aug 07 when some predictions were made; what has transpired is not exctly what was predicted.



>Apocalypto< said:


> Here is the chart UF. I gathered since u trade Gold u would have been failure with the current daily chart.




Huh?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> No, I think you have misread my post - I'm not saying $680 at all, I was saying that was the price back in Aug 07 when some predictions were made; what has transpired is not exctly what was predicted.
> 
> 
> 
> Huh?




my mistake.

you do trade spot gold right, with IG? i remember u posted u had a trade fixed by IG. So since u trade Gold and u look at and post charts, i gathered you would be familiar with the current gold charts.

So UF we all given our prices why don't you gives us your direction and a price target of where u think Gold is going next?


----------



## wavepicker

*This post is for TA people only*

The following is a chart of the PHLX Gold and Silver Sector in the US.
 It gels very nicely to the analsysis made on spot Gold some weeks ago before the current leg down began:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=284834&postcount=4035

This is a texbook completed impulse, they don't much better than this. Statistically speaking wave 2's or the abc correction usually retraces 38.2-50% of the whole advance. Many times however it is 61.8%.  A good guide line is the span of the previous wave 4. These are approximate levels only. But judging from these figures this sector has much further to go down. These charts show great confluence.


----------



## wavepicker

Current ΕW musings for NCM secular trend. Missing the impulse of the early 1990's so have hand drawn lines. Expecting further weakness for green wave a of primary cycle red 4 to complete. Secular trend is still up and this gels nicely with Golds secular bull prospects but we are currently in a long term wave 4 which has a high probability of trending sideways since red wave 2 was a sharp decline(law of alternation)


----------



## barrett

Hello Treefrog, Wavepicker,
Defining a run for the purposes of drawing in Fib retracements, shouldn't the run be defined by the very extremes of the price move?
Thanks


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barrett said:


> Hello Treefrog, Wavepicker,
> Defining a run for the purposes of drawing in Fib retracements, shouldn't the run be defined by the very extremes of the price move?
> Thanks




nice point Barret,

Tree frog Wavepicker could either of u clarify this? 

I always thought the fibb retrace was made from the extremes. 

In the below chart I am measuring the current run that is now retracing.


----------



## wavepicker

>Apocalypto< said:


> nice point Barret,
> 
> Tree frog Wavepicker could either of u clarify this?
> 
> I always thought the fibb retrace was made from the extremes.
> 
> In the below chart I am measuring the current run that is now retracing.





Hello Barret, Apocalypto. 

I use price fibs in terms of Elliott Wave Analysis and the structure of the waves relative to each other. We are also measuring retracements relative to COMPLETED impulses(an impulse is a fib; 5 waves, a retrace is 3 waves also a fib) at varying degrees of trend. In the case of NCM for example, I am measuring the retracement red wave 4 relative  to red wave 3. One can also measure extensions relative to other wave structures i.e. wave 5 relative to wave 1 and wave 5 relative to wave 3. 
Other ways of using fibs is making extensions from various origins  and looking for clusters of hits of fib numbers relative to each other.  I have many other uses for fibs which are not conventional as well which I won't go into detail here because it is too complex i.e additional fibs such as 0.886,0.707, and 0.941. We can start a new thread for this.

I understand there are other ways of using fibs, treeefrog has demonstrated quite a few of these, and perhaps he can expand on his methodology or give some examples.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

>Apocalypto< said:


> nice point Barret,
> 
> Tree frog Wavepicker could either of u clarify this?
> 
> I always thought the fibb retrace was made from the extremes.
> 
> In the below chart I am measuring the current run that is now retracing.




  Agree with the way you see it Apocalypto... also that one of the secrets is to identify these points prior to them forming... most people seem to find them once they have formed, not a lot of value for trading.

  Cheers
..............kauri


----------



## wavepicker

Kauri said:


> Agree with the way you see it Apocalypto... also that one of the secrets is to identify these points prior to them forming... most people seem to find them once they have formed, not a lot of value for trading.
> 
> Cheers
> ..............kauri




Pretty fair comments. I suppose it's a mtter of finding your potential fib turning point targets and then narrowing them down to which might be the highest probability ones.

Sometimes you can end up with quite a few potential price clusters. Personally, I have had more like with using fibs in terms of time than price. but that is just me.

Magdoran makes very good use of Gann expansions and retracements in his work and this is the best price analysis I have seen. Uncanny how price vibrates through his ranges.

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

Wavepicker, Apolcalypto et al, at what point would you suggest the $690ish target has been missed and was wrong?

I know some have suggested a small bounce, so at what point does the small bounce become a reversal?


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> Wavepicker, Apolcalypto et al, at what point would you suggest the $690ish target has been missed and was wrong?
> 
> I know some have suggested a small bounce, so at what point does the small bounce become a reversal?





Assuming we get a bounce here that continues to rally, either when 75% of the range has been exceeded or wave structure/pattern dictates.

Now I throw a similar question back to you, how do you know when your current forecast for the run to $1600  will not start to happen at this support level? Surely not when price reaches 600-700, as it it might be too late then?
Market has already retraced $200 from the peak, when will you say "something else might be happening at this juncture, I might be wrong?"


----------



## >Apocalypto<

refined silver said:


> Wavepicker, Apolcalypto et al, at what point would you suggest the $690ish target has been missed and was wrong?
> 
> I know some have suggested a small bounce, so at what point does the small bounce become a reversal?




I am not a Elliotition so I can not post any thing on Wavepickers behalf. This are my thoughts 

 If the price makes a higher low that is a sign to me that the down move has hit a hiccup. as a guide a bounce off a fib point also adds to the lower high. one thing i look for is were the new rally gets to. does the high enter into the previous support zone or dose it start to fail below it that gives  trend a normal movement.  

bounces fail when they start to sell down again. If it stops and starts to buy back up then u could say it's found support and it's formed a lower high (bullish) common in fast moves down are impulsive retracement up that are very strong and vertical once they fail they sell down faster and a break of the low confirms to degree that the move down is continuing.

I have put in three technical ideas I have for Gold. the support it's sitting on now and the area it made last support hold alot of sway for me. time is needed to confirm each idea. I see a bounce coming on Gold and on the EUR/USD but I still lean towards more selling to lower lows. time will tell.

1. trend up resumes.
2. trend cont down.
3. trend cont down.

like i have said before I don't trade like this any more, so this is just personal analysis.


----------



## treefrog

barrett said:


> Hello Treefrog, Wavepicker,
> Defining a run for the purposes of drawing in Fib retracements, shouldn't the run be defined by the very extremes of the price move?
> Thanks




Hi Barrett,
Yes it should. But do you plonk your charts on monthly bars and sit around waiting for confirmation or do you use a shorter timeframe and trade/watch the in between runs when exhaustion tops become apparent or the recent dip starts stalling at 50%.

eg the current gold run can in hindsight be seen to have started apr 2001 but back then it was not so apparent.
my own assertion is that if a clear run retraces more than 50% then that run is negated as a usable reference run for looking for further opportunities from it.
It does not mean the overall uptrend is finished - uptrend rules still apply - if it is still making higher hi's and higher lows the retrace levels can be whatever for that uptrend to be intact. 
Gold atm is still in a clear uptrend; and on the weekly chart there has yet to be a more than 50% retrace on the main gold run since those first two nervous starts in 2001. Just check out the 50%ers - there are many gold seems to love them.
In fact put the current retrace on the weekly since apr 2001 and it does not even account for a 23% retrace as yet - I regard 50% as a fair dinkum retrace of the relevant run so the gold bull is just getting stronger for mine.
In fact, much of the debate stems from people continuing to use the daily or weekly chart when they should switch to monthly bars/candles or even quarterly or yearly over the longer periods - the monthly being needed to get things in perspective/proportion and avoid "the sky's falling", "no it's not" "yes it is" debate. Un less of course we are trading/investing fibs then the weekly is hard to beat.
In the first chart here, gold had its start from apr2001 and retraced more than 62% (blue) so for mine that run start point was no longer relevant - at that time the run had been negated
The start of the next run(purple) - aug2001 also retraced more than 62% so I would no longer place significance on either or both of those - BUT an uptrend has established - significant
The next run (pink)*starts* dec2001 ends feb 2002 (that is all the info you have at that time) but it only retraces 50% indicating strength established and the start point is still valid so the continuation of that run gives a total run from dec 2001 to jun 2002 (red) and retraces 50%
that makes the continuation still with a valid start of dec 2002 (orange) which also retraces 50% before giving a green valid (overall) run from dec 2001 to the first hump of the DT in 2004 
now the issue becomes at what time do you switch charts to monthly bars?? - subjective but soon I would suggest if an investor.
but it all depends on your timeframe
I don't presume to tell investors how to view the stability of their investment but to me I think things are more relevant after two years on monthly bars IF you are a long termer.
If medium term stay with the weekly bars, and keep trading the runs within the overall run with the frequent fib retraces.
My key point is: the more obvious the run the stronger the chance of a regulation retrace.
Oh and before you start arguing about the original start point, when u put up the monthly bars, the starting point sometimes moves but remember it has become less relevant at this time to weekly charts and you still are unsure where the end point is anyway (are we expecting world financial stability after it gets to $1600???)
The thing to be aware of (in a "background" sense) as a lengthy run establishes, more people start looking for retrace points and they (key fib levels) therefore become more likely:  day traders + week traders + MT investors + LT investors + fundies all looking for obvious fib levels - so the pygmalion effect enters the equation: remember gann, elliott, and others have their followers added to the mix all using fib levels
And yes I would agree (as we look back now) the start point was april 2001 and No, I didn't pick it - the runs within the LT run I find easier to see.


----------



## refined silver

Thanks for the replies.

In answer to wavepickers question when do I (we?) question the move to $1600, one very important point is often overlooked on this thread.

That is, some are playing the gold price through futures, some are playing it through shares. I think most of the long term bullish camp are playing through shares, hence, a $200 setback is par for the course, and doesn't cost any money, if the shares are not margined. For the trader playing futures however, there is a huge difference. To hold for a long drop means wipe out (if it was a bet on a rising price). I think this is not understood, so traders get frustrated with share guys for not getting out, and seemingly being perpetually bullish, share guys on the other hand struggle to understand the antics of futures traders who always seem so antsy, and change opinions at the drop of a hat, and seem to have no conviction about where the market is headed.

That said, in answer to your question, I would be very very surprised if it dropped under $800, but would still hold even down to $690 as am still convinced of the fundamental long term bullish case for gold. I will sell when the fundamentals change.


----------



## treefrog

wavepicker said:


> *This post is for TA people only*
> 
> The following is a chart of the PHLX Gold and Silver Sector in the US.
> It gels very nicely to the analsysis made on spot Gold some weeks ago before the current leg down began:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=284834&postcount=4035
> 
> This is a texbook completed impulse, they don't much better than this. Statistically speaking wave 2's or the abc correction usually retraces 38.2-50% of the whole advance. Many times however it is 61.8%.  A good guide line is the span of the previous wave 4. These are approximate levels only. But judging from these figures this sector has much further to go down. These charts show great confluence.




there ya go team - ta WP,

the point I was making about better appreciation on monthlies when we start talking years


----------



## explod

treefrog said:


> there ya go team - ta WP,
> 
> the point I was making about better appreciation on monthlies when we start talking years




Thanks for you charts and commentry Treefrog.   What I could see but without the ability to explain.   But on my hand drawn chart on the wall it has been that way all the way.    The next one when it starts could go to $2000 and retrace $900 as it looks like exponential volatility from the beginning.  $30 moves in a day are now common when in the beginning we were excited over a $5 move.

Interesting times.


----------



## barrett

Thanks guys... here is a Fib retracement and expansion chart for the whole bull market.. it's interesting how often the Fibonacci numbers crop up isn't it, especially on the second chart..

On both of these charts would people say there seem to be Fib support levels here that could cause at least a short term rally?

weekly linear ..can't do log..


----------



## wavepicker

barrett said:


> Thanks guys... here is a Fib retracement and expansion chart for the whole bull market.. it's interesting how often the Fibonacci numbers crop up isn't it, especially on the second chart..
> 
> On both of these charts would people say there seem to be Fib support levels here that could cause at least a short term rally?
> 
> weekly linear ..can't do log..




Thanks for the charts barret. On your weekly chart with all the fibs, the last consolidation level between May 2006 and Aug 2007 and Ranges between 730-542 is the most important pattern for:

1/ Being labelled as  a wave 4 sideways pattern and these always precede the last move in th market. In commodities the ensuing wave 5's are usually blowoffs and extend as has happened in this case due to buying more fear based than hope based. So you know from this pattern there is one last leg up left on your impulse and thereafter the trend might be at risk.

2/ They serve as a support level for the bear market to end more often than not. If I've seen this once then I have seen it 1000 times. Now this wave 4 range of 730-542, the market USUALLY but not always reverses at the lower end of the span. But this is only a guideline. In this case drawing in our fibs, you can easily see that the 3 fib ratios that fall into the span of the consolidation are 0.382, 0.50, and 0.618. More than likely the market will find support and reverse at or near one of these levels. 

It could be 0.382 at $730 that is the minimum requirement for me, but statistically it will be at some point between 0.382 and 0.500(730- 641) with a lower probability of 0.618 or 550.

This is a textbook impulse in Gold and Silver. Most of the time they are I commodities, that is why I like to trade them.

There will be a "b" wave rally on the way down, and this will be a sucker rally as most of the bulls will feel safe the uptrend has resumed. It might be starting now, my cycles envelopes say a rally is due to start this week. 

A good time to sell at the peak IMO, because as Apocalypto mentioned, if we get a lower high from this rally, that would be your que to sell IMO.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> So UF we all given our prices why don't you gives us your direction and a price target of where u think Gold is going next?




My trading target for today is $865 by 5pm for my long. A clear breach of this channel then a reset of the stop to this value. Failure then back to low $840's?


----------



## barrett

Uncle Festivus said:


> My trading target for today is $865 by 5pm for my long. A clear breach of this channel then a reset of the stop to this value. Failure then back to low $840's?




With you on that trade UF, I'm not in yet, but it looks like the breakout was confirmed on the hourly... just waiting for the pullback to finish


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> With you on that trade UF, I'm not in yet, but it looks like the breakout was confirmed on the hourly... just waiting for the pullback to finish




Yes, it may have a bit in it - where to put a stop in this kind of volatility?  . doh! just hit 864.5 again!! Maybe the new support?

Just playing with charts for DOW & gold - gold in descending wedge (eventually bullish?, looking for a big break out?) DOW in last stage of ascending wedge (bearish? looking for ? more ppt intervention )


----------



## barrett

I'm in at 866 it _looks _ like the pullback is over..


----------



## So_Cynical

refined silver said:


> Wavepicker, Apolcalypto et al, at what point would you suggest the $690ish target has been missed and was wrong?
> 
> I know some have suggested a small bounce, so at what point does the small bounce become a reversal?




Ive noticed most of the short term "trader" types on this forum seem to over estimate to the downside and under estimate to the up...i assume its got something to do with the mentality of short term trading.:dunno:

Minimizing the downside risk and protecting profit on the up side.


----------



## kransky

barrett said:


> I'm in at 866 it _looks _ like the pullback is over..




what makes you say that? double bottom near 865?


----------



## explod

Well everything has gone stone silent.   The US$ index's tepid recovery seems to be over, the gold price seems to have consolidated off support and getting back in step with oil  ??

Maybe we are due for an announcement for that Great Freedom Fighter "Big Chief Burnin Bush"   Yeeeeeeeee  Haaaaaaaaa.  and we will be saved again.


----------



## barrett

kransky said:


> what makes you say that? double bottom near 865?



yes that, then moved up on high volume, then broke & pulled back to a shorter-term resistance line on the 1-min.. 
Afterwards confirmed with v high volume on the up....

On the hourly, the RSI reached overbought territory and had a nonconfirmation in the past 24 hours.. if it breaks the trend in the chart below to the downside, would be more evidence for a consolidation over the next day and maybe a chance to short for a scalp at least..


----------



## barrett

after that the rally might continue another day or two since the candlestick situation looks bullish on the daily?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I still stand by my last post. the price is making a retrace just as thought. what will tell me my answer is what happens on the next wave of selling. I still stand towards bearish


----------



## Temjin

I'm back in at roughly 860ish as well, but only have a shorter term focus on this particular trade until the weekly signal become more evident.


----------



## barrett

On the hourly chart, the 4-day uptrend has been broken to the downside about half an hour ago, and retraced to the breakdown point at 875. The RSI continued its nonconfirmation. So _in theory_ I would expect this is a good time to cover longs or go short here at 875 spot......but let's see what actually happens...


----------



## explod

US dollar continues to show weakness so gold can only go up.   Silver leading the way again finally which is a secondary indicator, gold will follow and it is.

It has been said many times that gold with its unique intrinsic value will defy the normal laws of analysis, and it is.

We are entering bad economic times and throughtout history gold has allways rallied at such times, and it is.
.


----------



## Tukker

Not knowing to much about how gold prices work, what effect (if any) would the IMF sale of 400tonnes au potentially have on this market?


----------



## explod

Tukker said:


> Not knowing to much about how gold prices work, what effect (if any) would the IMF sale of 400tonnes au potentially have on this market?





The following should help.



 Tight Supply Causing Gold Bull Market, Central Bank Sales Not a Concern
By Dan Denning • September 27th, 2007 • Related Articles • Filed Under 
About the Author
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). A specialist in small-cap stocks, Dan draws on his network of global contacts from his base in Melbourne, Australia and pens the small cap newsletter, The Australian Small Cap Investigator. He is also a contributing editor to the Australian resource investing publication Diggers & Drillers.

See All Articles by This Author

None Found 
Filed Under: Market 
Despite BHP (ASX:BHP) upgrading gold reserves at the Olympic Dam yesterday from 71 to 78 million ounces, the relative tightness in gold supply””both mine and above ground gold””is one reason gold analyst Martin Murenbeeld is predicting an average gold price of US$823/oz in 2008.

Speaking at a gold conference not far from where we grew up in Denver, Colorado, Murenbeeld gave eight reasons he believes gold is in a bull market. One””that it is NOT the US dollar””would be good enough for us. But Murenbeeld makes some other points worth noting.

First, he believes the house price trouble in the US may spread to other countries that have even worse housing fundamentals than Team America. The economic aftershocks of housing stress in other countries will prompt similar reactions from other central banks””lower interest rates. When the money supply grows faster than the gold supply, inflation ensues.

“US house prices are not as stretched as elsewhere because house prices are out of line in Europe as well. That means the housing problems in the US have a very good chance of going around the developed world,” Murenbeeld says. He is not especially worried about central bank gold sales, a possibility we mentioned last week. 

“The amount of loose gold in the central bank system is modest. It amounts to about 4,000 tonnes that is available to be traded out of total holdings of 30,383 tonnes. That 4,000 tons was a worry back in the 1990s when countries like Argentina sold their gold stocks down to zero. Now, it seems Argentina actually wants to buy gold. Reality is that central bankers seem to be very much like ordinary people. They sell gold at the low point and buy it at the high point.”

We conceded the point. Central bankers are people too. Most people buy when they should sell and sell when they should buy. Just ask Gordon Brown, the man who sold Britain’s gold at the bottom of the gold bear market. Think the Bank of England, while it’s busy writing blank cheques to distressed mortgage lenders, would like to have that gold back now?

Murenbeeld’s first reason to like gold in 2008 is the best one. The organised attempt to keep the credit bubble from rapidly deflating is officially underway. Bond traders are already anticipating another Fed rate cut in short-term rates by pushing up long-term rates. The bond market anticipates the Fed’s inflationary policy by demanding higher yields.

“As a result,” writes Bill Barnhart in the Chicago Tribune, “the interest rate gap between 2-year Treasury notes and 10-year Treasury notes has widened significantly in recent days. The trend indicates an inflationary economy, not one where businesses and investors fear recession. The relationship of long-term Treasuries to short-term Treasuries apparently reflects an anxious shift in the investment preferences of international investors. The latest monthly report on money flows by foreigners in and out of US debt securities in July shows wholesale abandonment of long-dated Treasury securities and corporate bonds in favour of Treasury bills.”

Gold doesn’t yield anything, of course. But it generally moves in the opposite direction to the US dollar. Gold up. Dollar down.

The other excellent point made by Mr. Murenbeeld is that the dollar’s decline is forcing a reallocation of global foreign currency reserves””which total some US$5 trillion. If you want out to get out of the dollar, what do you get into? The euro? The Aussie dollar? Commodity futures? Resource stocks? Probably some of each, which is good news for Aussie investors, who stand to benefit from the reallocation of global currency reserves.

Dan Denning
The Daily Reckoning Australia


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> after that the rally might continue another day or two since the candlestick situation looks bullish on the daily?




Even though it's going sideways now, I give it til Friday US trading to hit or clear $900 within this channel, then maybe resume/complete descending wedge, otherwise extremely bullish if it breaks & passes $900? Depends how much ammo the CB's have left?


----------



## wavepicker

This rally has been a struggle IMO. If that is all that Gold has, then the resumption of the bear trend looks intact.

Too early to call with high probability at this stage but theis pattern of trend does not look impulsive in my eyes and I expect the USD to continue it's rally soon. A break and consolidation above the USD Index level of 75 would be significant in my eyes. No evidence to close out shorts at this stage.

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> I am not a Elliotition so I can not post any thing on Wavepickers behalf. This are my thoughts
> 
> If the price makes a higher low that is a sign to me that the down move has hit a hiccup. as a guide a bounce off a fib point also adds to the lower high. one thing i look for is were the new rally gets to. does the high enter into the previous support zone or dose it start to fail below it that gives  trend a normal movement.
> 
> bounces fail when they start to sell down again. If it stops and starts to buy back up then u could say it's found support and it's formed a lower high (bullish) common in fast moves down are impulsive retracement up that are very strong and vertical once they fail they sell down faster and a break of the low confirms to degree that the move down is continuing.
> 
> I have put in three technical ideas I have for Gold. the support it's sitting on now and the area it made last support hold alot of sway for me. time is needed to confirm each idea. I see a bounce coming on Gold and on the EUR/USD but I still lean towards more selling to lower lows. time will tell.
> 
> 1. trend up resumes.
> 2. trend cont down.
> 3. trend cont down.
> 
> like i have said before I don't trade like this any more, so this is just personal analysis.




Gold has confirmed my second thought failed at the last support that's now resistance. normal trend is confirmed. I did not want to miss this so even though it's demo i have started to short in with two contracts. if it breaks the low i will be filled on 2 more via order to open.

right now the trend is continuing down. i personally don't think u will see your $900 for a while. but u never know.

good shorting


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> This rally has been a struggle IMO. If that is all that Gold has, then the resumption of the bear trend looks intact.
> 
> Too early to call with high probability at this stage but theis pattern of trend does not look impulsive in my eyes and I expect the USD to continue it's rally soon. A break and consolidation above the USD Index level of 75 would be significant in my eyes. No evidence to close out shorts at this stage.
> 
> Cheers




Yes, it is struggling, lost momentum now. Something happened right on the hour that took the wind out of gold, $AU & oil on thin trade though. I can see these ascending and descending wedges forming in a few things, something is going to happen within a few days? (I think DOW will correct)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Well everything has gone stone silent.




some times it's best to wait before you open your mouth Explod 

patterns need time to confirm nothing is that black and white in the markets. maybe all those reports u read are clouding your vision. (black and white.)  

on the same token i may be wrong in a day or two as well. that's trading.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> some times it's best to wait before you open your mouth Explod
> 
> patterns need time to confirm nothing is that black and white in the markets. maybe all those reports u read are clouding your vision. (black and white.)
> 
> on the same token i may be wrong in a day or two as well. that's trading.





Dont' worry, the Wall Street spinners will get onto something to hold it down.  It is a political hot potatoe.

But the silence at the time was interesting to me as it all seems to stop at crossroads.  For all the assertiveness the short term is very hard to pick.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Dont' worry, the Wall Street spinners will get onto something to hold it down.  It is a political hot potatoe.
> 
> But the silence at the time was interesting to me as it all seems to stop at crossroads.  For all the assertiveness the short term is very hard to pick.




LOL explod there anit no conspiracy it's a market mate it goes up down sideways. all i am doing is acting of what i am being told to do either i am right or wrong i don't know that yet but the market will show me soon. that's it mate no thinking no guessing i just follow.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Dont' worry, the Wall Street spinners will get onto something to hold it down.  It is a political hot potatoe.
> 
> But the silence at the time was interesting to me as it all seems to stop at crossroads.  For all the assertiveness the short term is very hard to pick.




Explod, I feel sorry for you. Just trade the market mate and forget all the Wall St hype, otherwise you will implod.


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Explod, I feel sorry for you. Just trade the market mate and forget all the Wall St hype, otherwise you will implod.




Thanks to both of you above.    I am not a trader.  A reasonable investor in the longer to medium term and in that I do quite well.

However I have always been a compassionate political animal for 40 years and of late have become very interested in the manipulation across world markets.   Of the extent that political machines (for want of better description) are the creation of the money holders (Rothchilds et al).

You would both be aware that many times I have said that gold will not rise a great deal till the presidential election at the end of the year and I stick by that. 

First and formost this thread is about gold's direction.   Short term t/a seems to dominate and I try to offer discussion.    My fuse sticks out a bit at times and goes off well when lit.    

My investing is done by following the trend at all times so I wonder at the confusion of others sometimes.  I sold down the blue chip gold stocks weeks ago and apart from my long term hold of physical I am playing only some small caps.   One of them is doing well in the Stock Tip Comp too.


----------



## MRC & Co

Is that allowed on the forums, telling someone you feel sorry for them and how to use their $$?

While I am getting great results out of T/A recently (with small help by fundamentals), but I do not like the arrogance of some T/A 'aficionado's'. 

If your making money, great, but explod has been on gold since the start of the trend, he seems astute at investing to me, so keep your insults and 'advice' off the forum and keep it insightful, respectful and useful for everyones sake!

That was a cheap shot if ever I've seen one!


----------



## wavepicker

MRC & Co said:


> Is that allowed on the forums, telling someone you feel sorry for them and how to use their $$?
> 
> While I am getting great results out of T/A recently (with small help by fundamentals), but I do not like the arrogance of some T/A 'aficionado's'.
> 
> If your making money, great, but explod has been on gold since the start of the trend, he seems astute at investing to me, so keep your insults and 'advice' off the forum and keep it insightful, respectful and useful for everyones sake!
> 
> That was a cheap shot if ever I've seen one!




As you know very little about the background to this post you should keep your comments to yourself.

If I put up argument to someones post using overwhelming evidence and then they start crying and complaining in PM's using other reasons as an excuse because they can't "handle it", they should learn to grow up.

While Gold was rising all we heard was "you are wrong for that reason and this reason". Now that it is falling we are l being told that it gonna go to the stars again soon.

This used to be a great thread. Recently you could not put in a word about T/A without getting nitpicked by the long term investors.

I don't know how long explod has been on this trend. Is it 1999 or 2007? You know it ain't my business and how much money he makes or loses is not my business either. He can do what he likes.

Gold is falling and I am stating it how it is and trading the trend.


----------



## ShareIt

Everyone in this thread is invested in Gold by the sounds of it.... 

so if you call it down, it is still going up and if you call it up, well they ALL knew that!


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> As you know very little about the background to this post you should keep your comments to yourself.
> 
> If I put up argument to someones post using overwhelming evidence and then they start crying and complaining in PM's using other reasons as an excuse because they can't "handle it", they should learn to grow up.
> 
> While Gold was rising all we heard was "you are wrong for that reason and this reason". Now that it is falling we are l being told that it gonna go to the stars again soon.
> 
> This used to be a great thread. Recently you could not put in a word about T/A without getting nitpicked by the long term investors.
> 
> I don't know how long explod has been on this trend. Is it 1999 or 2007? You know it ain't my business and how much money he makes or loses is not my business either. He can do what he likes.
> 
> Gold is falling and I am stating it how it is and trading the trend.




You know well that I have never started crying or needed anyone to stick up for me.  I do get a bit tied up and befuddled sometimes but it is good to laugh at oneself and be laughted at, but importantly one learns.  I remember a time when the t/a's were stuck up for and who did that behind the scenes.   And someone spat the dummy and said they would go away but is back asserting good ideas.  The opposing views are what does make this thread great and I enjoy the banter.   Anyway enough of this off topic  c...p.

Gold is pushing sideways into another flag formation to which it will eventually break up from.   A very good post last week (was it Barret?) I will look up and refresh later demonstrated very well what is going on with gold.


----------



## explod

Continuing on from my last post, sorry Barret but my credit goes to Treefrog for his post 5thMay 12.14am.     Which clearly pictures the charachter of this gold bull trend that has evolved over the last 7 years.

A short term down trend we may have but it is well contained within the habbits of this uptrend.   For those who missed it Treefrog's post is well worth a bit of thought  IMHO.

And Wavepicker I think that some of the charts you put up are excellent.  Not that I am any great judge but just 2cents.


----------



## explod

From my low corner have been ruminating over the charts and noticed that since last Friday we are in a short term uptrend, it could continue?

Looking at the last 6 months we have a head and shoulders in the making that could take us to US$800.

Oooooorrrr we could bounce off support around 825.

But so what, in the next few years gold will go to the moon.


----------



## cuttlefish

Everyone has their own investment/trading style - based on differing personal objectives which include their own requirements for risk management (market risk, legal risk, political risk, economic risk, personal financial risk etc. etc.), asset protection, income generation and wealth creation. These strategies also depend on the level of capital they are applying to all of this. On that basis nobody can accurately assess or critique another persons strategy without knowing all of these details.

My view in relation to gold (which as I understand it is consistent with explods and others) is that gold is a currency not a commodity and is competing with fiat currencies.  In that regard any institutions that have a power base that is based around the value of fiat currencies have motive to do all they can to defend it against competition from gold.  In that respect, media spin would form one part of the arsenal of that defence, as would any other activities that can work to the detriment of a strong gold price.

I'm also one of those that believes that gold has a reasonably good potential of putting in massive and unheard of gains over the coming years _if_ the US economy and US currency (and thus all other currencies that are dependant upon it as a reserve currency) shows signs of systemic failure.  

Based on that in my view (and in line with one of the inputs into my own goals, one of which is asset protection in all situations) its worth having a portion of funds allocated to a continous open long position on gold because the up moves in the sorts of situations I envisage could occur (given they would really be reflections of a US currency down move) can be sudden and dramatic.


----------



## MRC & Co

ShareIt said:


> Everyone in this thread is invested in Gold by the sounds of it....
> 
> so if you call it down, it is still going up and if you call it up, well they ALL knew that!




Not me, though just bought a small stake in SGX, first time I have had any gold exposure since it's blow off top.

I've given up on the gold predictions for the moment.  Wait until some firm confirmation one way or the other.  At the moment it is more splitting hairs, no confluence for me.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*USD looks ok to me boy's. I'll be holding my shorts. *


----------



## wavepicker

>Apocalypto< said:


> *USD looks ok to me boy's. I'll be holding my shorts. *





But how can that be mate, according to the Gold  "experts" the USD is doomed? LOL


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> But how can that be mate, according to the Gold  "experts" the USD is doomed? LOL




As an old Ex I have lost most of my spert so cant really say.   It was your good self if I recall that indicated on your charts that the US$ was going back up.

By Apocalypto's chart it looks to me as if it is in a very firm down trend.    Looking back can see all these head and shoulders with a down bias.  Looks like it is forming another one at the moment.   And since 2001 gold has been the reflection in the sky to the money.   

What is happening is just what many economists predicted when gold was removed from support to currencies by the Bretton Woods agreement as presided over by US President Nixon.  They will fight it with the printing presses but without value behind the print it will not be accepted much longer as a form of exchange.

If you like to visit the Privateer web page you can read the finer print.  It'l come up on Google.


----------



## cuttlefish

yeah thats a very bullish looking USD chart there - starts at the top left and finishes somewhere near the bottom right - I'd be putting the house on USD longs after looking at that one   (not).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> *USD looks ok to me boy's. I'll be holding my shorts. *




Is that from $850?



wavepicker said:


> But how can that be mate, according to the Gold  "experts" the USD is doomed? LOL





WP, you say this every time the ol greenback has a rally. All part n parcel of the game - we can all 'trade it' , just not sure if it's sustainable, as per the chart . At the same time, this isn't a solid rally for me until & if it breaches $900 during tonight's trading. After that I can reassess?

Also, there is no hard and fast rule that can't be disconnected ie the connection between the $US & gold, as I think we are near a few 'disconnections' that will confound all.


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> But how can that be mate, according to the Gold  "experts" the USD is doomed? LOL



Ther are quite a few years of charts showing the sustained downtrend of the US dollar.
Like anything else traded, it will rise and fall.
The only relevant issue is your interest or investment at the time, and how long you choose to stay in.
The US dollar is "doomed", and will sink significantly below its recent cyclical low, then possibly into the 50cent range within 3 years.
Its descent will slow as a weak US dollar will make US produced goods more globally competitive.
An important contributor to the greenback's demise will be the cost of oil related energy imports and its impact on GDP going forward. I estimate oil related imports will cost no less than $550b in 2008, and contribute almost 50% of the total deficit for the year.
On the topic of gold, its meandering under $900 could soon come to a close, although I always favour strong resumptions in gold prices in the last quarter of each calendar year.  Clearly, that's many nonths away.


----------



## explod

There is no doubt that most following this thread know well where gold is going in the next few years.   However the following article via the Bullion Desk puts the future beyond doubt.  Particularly the need to lean toward having physical and being sure that companies are unhedged. 

There is a bit in it so will make it two posts. 



> "F" is for "Fundamentals"
> 
> 
> Golden Gut Check
> Why gold is likely to keep moving higher over the long run
> 
> 
> "Gentlemen, this is a football."
> Coach Vince Lombardi at the start of Green Bay Packer football camp
> 
> Occasionally I like to take a close look at gold's fundamentals -- a gut check of sorts. It helps me get a deeper sense of what is driving the market. It also helps me reorganize my thinking around sound principles. Vince Lombardi, the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers, always stressed knowing and understanding the fundamentals as the key to success on the football field. Likewise, learning the fundamentals is key to knowing and understanding gold. By doing so, you will become a more confident, better informed and successful gold owner.
> 
> From scarcity to shortages, the past is prologue
> 
> I cannot remember a time when the fundamentals have lined up more favorably for gold. The factors which have driven the price up over 75% over the past few years remain in place and in fact seem to be intensifying. The past, in this respect, could very well serve as prologue. Great forces, mostly benevolent, are at work in the gold market. Demand, as reported copiously by the mainstream financial press, continues to grow steadily on a global basis. It is on the supply side of the equation, however, where we now find the strongest arguments for resumption of the bull market. To come to the point, fundamental trends suggest that the gold market may be moving from a period of general scarcity to outright shortages. Unless some formidable source for gold is suddenly found, the period of shortages could come to full flower as early as 2008.
> 
> Though benevolent forces seem to be guiding the gold market at the moment, there is, at the same time, a darker side to the emerging gold story. A shortage raises the possibility that investors who have yet to purchase gold (or plan to purchase more) might be crowded out of the market by major financial institutions and mining firms intent on squaring their physical short positions.
> 
> The threat of a gold shortage should not be taken lightly. Recent reports of a rice shortage in Asia are a case in point. Nation states immediately began hoarding rice and governments put incentives in place to encourage production. The possibility for shortages applies to a range of key commodities, not just gold. Along these lines Goldman Sachs recently predicted explosive rallies in commodities led by crude oil rising to $175 per barrel. Shortages, hoarding, rapid price increases, breakdowns in international trade, a collapsing social order and the increased purchasing power of gold -- all typically accompany periods of currency debasement.
> 
> The mining companies face reduced production. . .
> 
> In 2005, the world's mines produced 2,550 tonnes of gold. In 2007, production had declined to 2,447 tonnes. Production, in fact, has been in steady decline for a number of years. Newmont Mining's Pierre Lassonde, who is generally considered one of the more savvy mining executives, explains why the mines have failed to increase production even with prices at record levels: "When is the last time we had a 30 million ounce discovery in the world? It's not in this decade, I can tell you that (and) it's not over the last 10 years. It's a long time ago. Look at exploration expenditures * they are going up, but we are not getting the discoveries. And not only are we not finding them, but the ones we do find, they take forever to put into production." Lassonde goes on to say that in his view "it's not going to get any better * at least for the next five years, and possibly for as long as the next 10 years."


----------



## explod

. .And forced covering of their forward sales

The steadily rising gold price has encouraged some mining companies (and forced others) to buy back their previous forward sales -- a process called dehedging. Though some analysts in the industry perennially predict the dehedging will slow, it has instead accelerated and become a major factor on the demand side of the gold balance sheet. In 2005, the mines dehedged 86 tonnes of metal. By 2007 that figure had grown to 400 tonnes -- a 465% increase.

When a mining company dehedges, it reverses its previous role as a seller in the fundamentals' equation and instead enters the market as a buyer. The effect on the supply-demand chart has been dramatic. What was once supply which acted to hold down the price has now become demand and an impetus to the price. This role reversal has contributed significantly to gold's steady rise over the past several years.

The plight of African mining giant AngloGold Ashanti is a case in point. Miningmx.com reports that Anglo is currently receiving 20% less than the spot price of gold (assuming a $900 price) due to its contracted forward sales. What's worse is that Anglo is contracted to deliver 60% of its hedge book over the next three years.

To buy its way out of the hedge, one top analyst believes a massive share issue amounting to one-third of the company's equity would be required. "It's a bombshell," he says, "and they are in more trouble with this hedge than anyone realizes." Thus not only will Anglo's shareholders experience hedging losses on the bottom line, they may be forced to suffer serious dilution of their interest as well.

For those who own the metal itself, such problems are grist for the mill. Anglo's forced purchases, no matter how they are financed, go straight into an already buoyant gold market. Keep in mind that the AngloGold Ashanti story is just one among many in the world of gold mining. "Being underwater" is an industry-wide problem. Analysts estimate the complete industry hedge book at roughly 1000 tonnes with additions still being posted annually.

Some key producing countries are keeping production at home

Have you ever asked yourself how much of the gold mined actually makes it to the open market? One would think that all the gold mined makes it to market. However, like much in the gold market, the answer to that question is more complicated than it appears on the surface.

Few people know, for example that China, which became the top gold producer in the world this past year, is a net importer of gold. (Annually, it produces about 275 tonnes and consumes about 325 tonnes.) In short, the biggest market for Chinese gold is the Chinese people themselves, and the demand is large enough to consume everything China produces.

Beyond direct retail demand which is likely to increase as China prospers (the Chinese people have a particularly strong attachment to gold), there is the question what China is likely to do with all the dollar reserves it has piled up over the past few years. There are constant rumors that its huge sovereign wealth fund is buying gold. The central bank has also been cited in press reports as a potential buyer. Should any significant tranche of gold be made available, there is a strong chance that China might be a buyer.

Similarly, Russia, the fifth largest producer, is a net accumulator of gold. Only in its case, acquisitions are being made in the open as part of its central bank operations. In 2005 First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev, undoubtedly with President Vladimir Putin's blessing, said the bank would be purchasing gold "on all markets on which it is available," meaning both domestic and foreign markets. This gold will become part of Russia's national reserves and serve as a bulwark for the ruble.

So, in the case of the world's first- and fifth-largest gold producers, the gold in essence never leaves its borders. What appears to be production that should grease the wheels of international supply is actually gold hoarded by the nations which produce it.

Others face serious limitations on their production

The South African mines have seen their production decline steadily over the years. Labor unrest, political instability and high-cost, deep ore structures have all taken their toll. Now the South African government has informed the mines that they will have their electrical power rationed for the next several years. Experts warn that the power shortages could cut gold production by as much as 15% to 20%. This translates to almost 55 tonnes of gold suddenly disappearing from the supply table -- a not insignificant number. The power supply problem could add to the demand side of the ledger as well. Writing for Financial Times, John Dizard made the following observation: "A lot of South African gold production has been hedged through short sales. It may be the case that the banks who lent the gold for the short sales have suggested that the cutback-plagued mines cover their short sales with open market purchases. That could have fueled part of the gold pop in recent weeks."

The official sector is not as committed to selling as some might think

Central bank, or official sector, sales are governed to a large degree by the Central Bank Agreement on Gold (CBGA). The signatories, which include most of the major European central banks (the primary sellers over the last decade) are restricted as a group to selling no more than 500 tonnes per year. There is also strict regulation of leasing gold -- another method of supplying the market.

When the International Monetary Fund recently announced that it was seeking permission from its members to sell its gold, it stipulated that the sales would be conducted under the guidelines of the CBGA. That said, there is still the possibility that the IMF sales will be blocked by Congress. At a time when other central banks have become reluctant to sell, that could come as a major blow to the supply side of the market.

Some top analysts, like Gold Fields Mineral Services, think CBGA sales could come in at less than the 500 tonnes allowed for the 2007-2008 fiscal year which ends in September. And as for the 2008-2009 CBGA fiscal year, some analysts are predicting a sharp drop off in sales. Virtual Metals stated in a recent report that sales could be as low as 247 tonnes unless some official sector entity, like the IMF, stepped into the breach. As of this writing, the World Gold Council reports only 191 tonnes sold of a possible 500 tonnes in the 2007-2008 CBGA fiscal year -- another indication of the growing reluctance on the part of central banks to sell.



Table courtesy of World Gold Council


______________________

Note: This past week (3/31/08), the World Gold Council reported that Switzerland, one of the primary sellers in recent years, is now approaching the end of its latest 250 tonne selling program. Germany, meanwhile, has announced that it will not sell gold in the new CBGA year beginning September, 2008.


----------



## wavepicker

rederob said:


> Ther are quite a few years of charts showing the sustained downtrend of the US dollar.
> Like anything else traded, it will rise and fall.
> The only relevant issue is your interest or investment at the time, and how long you choose to stay in.
> The US dollar is "doomed", and will sink significantly below its recent cyclical low, then possibly into the 50cent range within 3 years.
> Its descent will slow as a weak US dollar will make US produced goods more globally competitive.
> An important contributor to the greenback's demise will be the cost of oil related energy imports and its impact on GDP going forward. I estimate oil related imports will cost no less than $550b in 2008, and contribute almost 50% of the total deficit for the year.
> On the topic of gold, its meandering under $900 could soon come to a close, although I always favour strong resumptions in gold prices in the last quarter of each calendar year.  Clearly, that's many nonths away.




Rederob,

Your you have to be careful with your wording. Your post is almost a ramp down for the USD, in particular the  "is" and "will" words. I would hate for some inexperienced parties to be following your advice here and get burnt.

It seems to me this sort of investment mentality is almost guaranteed to fail.

The are NO certainties in the market, absolutely no certainties. No matter how hard we try and predict, forecast, and analyse by fundemental or TA there are no guarantees. All it takes one trader who has the volume to move the markets and things can change, so please be careful about what you say.

Only probabilities and possibilities exist and can sometimes be exploited. Trade what you see from the information the market is giving you not what you hope or expect, that is my motto. That is REALITY. It's peoples perception that drives the markets, not fundemental or even Technical Analsyis for that matter. Accept your risk, make a plan, take the trade if it fulfills your requirements and get out if you are wrong.


You are probably right, the USD will sink into oblivion in the very long term. I agree with you. But that does not make it right and ANYTHING is possible at any time in the market. I suggest you think about what I said very carefully next time you decide to take a trade. 
As for the USD Index, I stand by my analsysis that is it will rally between now and the end of the year. I am not saying it will be correct, but how I am approaching it and eventually  the market tell us. But if it's not I don't care( I have allowed for that scenario), I will simply move onto the next trade. It's that simple, and I ain't gonna get hung up about it.


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> Rederob,
> 
> Your you have to be careful with your wording. Your post is almost a ramp down for the USD, in particular the  "is" and "will" words. I would hate for some inexperienced parties to be following your advice here and get burnt.




wavepicker
As this is the gold thread, it is important to acknowledge that a weak greenback is a continuing prop to gold.
The US is riddled with debt.
Its consumers are indebted to the tune of $2.5trillion.
It will run a budget deficit in 2008 of over $200billion (pre-sub prime).
It will accumulate a trade deficit in 2008 in excess of $700billion.
Its recent home owners are finding their mortgages are now higher than the property purchase price, and foreclosure filings for the last quarter were almost 650,000: The rate of foreclosure has increased for the past 7 quarters.
I would hate for the ignorant to think that somehow the US is in good shape, and that the greenback was gathering strength: It is doomed, and it will sink further into oblivion over coming years.

That does not preclude traders profiting on trading the dollar, as some will every day of the week. It also does not preclude the dollar from a resurrection within the next 5 years, perhaps longer. Currencies are as cyclical as commodities, as will be proven in Zimbabwe after Mugabe's departure.


----------



## M34N

Anyone got an explanation to what happened in the white circled area? Big sell off then big buying again, makes no sense?


----------



## jackjones

M34N said:


> Anyone got an explanation to what happened in the white circled area? Big sell off then big buying again, makes no sense?
> 
> View attachment 20834




"Shaking out the weak longs"? 

I think if it holds 883 on Monday it will head to 900. If it doesn't it'll test 872 again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Is it just me or is everything eerily too quiet? Posting a chart out of boredom, descending wedge intact still, still to test lower lows??


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> descending wedge intact still, still to test lower lows??




looks like this might just be the start of the acceleration phase down? Looked like a pretty weak rally from day 1 (as expected "a bounce"). IMO a very tough next few months coming up for the precious metals.
We have heard many times before the "the long term fundementals are intact" and the "the dollar is doomed".  The reply to these comments has been: *Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope for. *


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> looks like this might just be the start of the acceleration phase down? Looked like a pretty weak rally from day 1 (as expected "a bounce"). IMO a very tough next few months coming up for the precious metals.
> We have heard many times before the "the long term fundementals are intact" and the "the dollar is doomed".  The reply to these comments has been: *Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope for. *



WP, what is your view on the descending wedge formation, and the usually accepted outcome from such formations ie a break up & out?

This is a 'slow' period of the year for gold as well so most don't expect too much anyway, unless of course we get the resumption of the 'correction' in general equities, which is looking a possibility by the action in the FTSE tonight, and would tie in with the ascending wedges I see for the DOW & FTSE.

I am patiently waiting in cash for the fall in gold shares too (watching LGL & SBM get into oversold), then the real action begins!


----------



## wavepicker

Uncle Festivus said:


> WP, what is your view on the descending wedge formation, and the usually accepted outcome from such formations ie a break up & out?
> 
> This is a 'slow' period of the year for gold as well so most don't expect too much anyway, unless of course we get the resumption of the 'correction' in general equities, which is looking a possibility by the action in the FTSE tonight, and would tie in with the ascending wedges I see for the DOW & FTSE.
> 
> I am patiently waiting in cash for the fall in gold shares too (watching LGL & SBM get into oversold), then the real action begins!





My view is unchanged, BEARISH. With a low expected betwen 541.90 and 730.20. This is the span of the previous 4th wave of one less degree, a common area of support. This is not a certainty only a guideline. Also statistically speaking cycle wave 2's which is what IMO is being traced out at present, usually find support at approx 38.2-50% of the entire impulse advance from 1999 to this year. 38.2%  coincides with approx $730 and 50% with $650 which is where I would be looking specifically. The 50% mark is the one I favour.

Bet to keep your cash in favour of gold bars at this juncture IMO.


----------



## Temjin

M34N said:


> Anyone got an explanation to what happened in the white circled area? Big sell off then big buying again, makes no sense?
> 
> View attachment 20834




It's called manipulation. 

It's the usual "8 or less" traders massively shorting contracts to depress the gold/silver price. They have been doing it for many years and almost always do it at around 9-10am in New York time. Apparently, this is the time when volumn is usually low and thus, allow them to move the price that much.

Nothing unusual given the same pattern has been going on for years and years. One can even trade this particular pattern!


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> My view is unchanged, BEARISH. With a low expected betwen 541.90 and 730.20. This is the span of the previous 4th wave of one less degree, a common area of support. This is not a certainty only a guideline. Also statistically speaking cycle wave 2's which is what IMO is being traced out at present, usually find support at approx 38.2-50% of the entire impulse advance from 1999 to this year. 38.2%  coincides with approx $730 and 50% with $650 which is where I would be looking specifically. The 50% mark is the one I favour.
> 
> Bet to keep your cash in favour of gold bars at this juncture IMO.




Well I THINK you will be proven wrong.

On 25/04/1980 gold closed at its high back then at US$850.   It breached this level at the close of 2007.  It proved to be a support in late Jan this year and again 8 trading days ago.  It bounced off that area again last night.   This level SHOULD hold now.


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Well I THINK you will be proven wrong.
> 
> On 25/04/1980 gold closed at its high back then at US$850. It breached this level at the close of 2007. It proved to be a support in late Jan this year and again 8 trading days ago. It bounced off that area again last night. This level SHOULD hold now.




That $850 is definitely a super strong support level. It almost coincidence with the daily 200 MA as well. That's a lot of confluence here. 

It would be a massive psychological impact if that level is breached. I am sure the Cartels are aiming for it but it seem there are tons of buyers set at that point to buy back in as soon as it dips to that level.

Will have to wait and see who will win the day.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> It's called manipulation.
> 
> It's the usual "8 or less" traders massively shorting contracts to depress the gold/silver price. They have been doing it for many years and almost always do it at around 9-10am in New York time. Apparently, this is the time when volumn is usually low and thus, allow them to move the price that much.
> 
> Nothing unusual given the same pattern has been going on for years and years. One can even trade this particular pattern!




Yeh, spot on, 9am NY time and they are into it again.   The efforts now are in the extreme to say the least.   If they fail in the next day or so we could expect a big twang of the spring.   My guess is that it will remain sideways to down in the medium term but hang onto that physical because the jump when it comes will be, as they plan,  unexpected.   

US$ dollar up as usual, same time.  The manipulation must be close to running out of legs.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Temjin said:


> It's called manipulation.
> 
> It's the usual "8 or less" traders massively shorting contracts to depress the gold/silver price. They have been doing it for many years and almost always do it at around 9-10am in New York time. Apparently, this is the time when volumn is usually low and thus, allow them to move the price that much.
> 
> Nothing unusual given the same pattern has been going on for years and years. One can even trade this particular pattern!






explod said:


> Yeh, spot on, 9am NY time and they are into it again.




If ya going to sprout the conspiracy at least try to link it to some basic facts. Its not 9 am in New York until 11 pm Sydney time!

And for your benefit I have pointed to the 9 - 10 am NY time period on the chart to show your low volume manipulation is actual the TWO HIGHEST volume hours of the day. In fact that two hour period counts for about 80% of the contracts traded.

And as for the 8 high volume "manipulators" that is a feature of all markets a small amount of parties trade 80% of the volume. Ain't nothing unusual in that.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> If ya going to sprout the conspiracy at least try to link it to some basic facts. Its not 9 am in New York until 11 pm Sydney time!
> 
> And for your benefit I have pointed to the 9 - 10 am NY time period on the chart to show your low volume manipulation is actual the TWO HIGHEST volume hours of the day. In fact that two hour period counts for about 80% of the contracts traded.
> 
> And as for the 8 high volume "manipulators" that is a feature of all markets a small amount of parties trade 80% of the volume. Ain't nothing unusual in that.




Apologies, was looking at the London market, and time.  Just seems to move on Mondays, Fridays and low volume hours down, and up at the other times, mostly.


----------



## Temjin

Trembling Hand said:


> If ya going to sprout the conspiracy at least try to link it to some basic facts. Its not 9 am in New York until 11 pm Sydney time!
> 
> And for your benefit I have pointed to the 9 - 10 am NY time period on the chart to show your low volume manipulation is actual the TWO HIGHEST volume hours of the day. In fact that two hour period counts for about 80% of the contracts traded.




I need to dig out the articles again. But from what I have read so far, the
Carters always do it at that particular time because the market is "low on volume" (or activities) from other players who are on the opposite side. And obviously, to move the price at such a magnitude, you can't do it without significant volume. 

And it's no conspiracy that gold/silver prices are being manipulated. It's very well known amoung the "bugs" and they have evidences for it. Of course, one can easily dismiss it simply because the bugs have their own agenda as well to prop up the prices. If you search hard enough, even Helicopter Ben has admitted that it was "necessary" to suppress the price of gold for certain reasons. 

Ted Butlet is easily the most well outspoken guy who have been voicing against the manipulations. Somewhere in his archives you will find out more about the 9-10am sell pattern. http://www.investmentrarities.com/tb-archives.html

Ed Steer from Casey Research also mentioned the manipulations in his daily resource newsletter. http://caseyresearch.com/archives.php?pubId=8

A random article, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={537BB029-B47F-46F0-8537-BD170ED0B224}



> And as for the 8 high volume "manipulators" that is a feature of all markets a small amount of parties trade 80% of the volume. Ain't nothing unusual in that.




Tell me which markets have only 8 or less traders that control 80% of the volume? 

The COT report for gold/silver obviously indicate that these "8 or less" traders are holding 80%+ of the short contracts. And has stepped up the concentration ever since gold was in bull market. 

Why would these traders, or rather, the central banks and investment banks, are holding such a massive concentration of shorts? What are their reasons for it? Obviously, those holding the longs are the commercials (producers!),  hedge funds and private individuals.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Temjin said:


> I need to dig out the articles again. But from what I have read so far, the
> Carters always do it at that particular time because the market is "low on volume" (or activities) from other players who are on the opposite side.




But its not the low volume time its the HIGH volume time. Asia is the low volume time.



Temjin said:


> And obviously, to move the price at such a magnitude, you can't do it without significant volume.




 Now I don't follow. This contradicts your above statement. If you are going to "manipulate" something, which you said happens during 9 am NY time, you would surely try and push it around during low volume which is not NY open?? 



Temjin said:


> Butlet is easily the most well outspoken guy who have been voicing against the manipulations. Somewhere in his archives you will find out more about the 9-10am sell pattern. http://www.investmentrarities.com/tb-archives.html
> 
> Ed Steer from Casey Research also mentioned the manipulations in his daily resource newsletter. http://caseyresearch.com/archives.php?pubId=8
> 
> A random article, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...D170ED0B224}.




yeah right I'm going to search through all that gumpf. Patterns come and patterns go. If the big guns ran the same game every day how long before they are going to get cut up by other players front running them?



Temjin said:


> eCOT report for gold/silver obviously indicate that these "8 or less" traders are holding 80%+ of the short contracts. And has stepped up the concentration ever since gold was in bull market.
> 
> Why would these traders, or rather, the central banks and investment banks, are holding such a massive concentration of shorts?




Have a look at all the data. DYOR don't copy other peoples rubbish. Think of the logic to this one. How are you able to hold 80% of the short open interest on highly leveraged contracts that have ran 300% higher?? And Not be blown out of the water?? They are arbitrage trades. Option market makers and spreaders.



Temjin said:


> Tell me which markets have only 8 or less traders that control 80% of the volume?




Like I said a small number of participants do most of the volume. I didn't say 8 traders. examples,

TransMarket Group Sydney do about 10 % of the SPI.
The MF Global Prop desk does WAY more than that and they have 20 traders.
Kingstree Prop does 5% Of the most liquid Fut out there, the ES  
Optiver does MOST of ASX & SFE options.


----------



## Whiskers

Wow, the ultumate precious metal, Rhodium has just flown the coop to new highs.

I wasn't expecting POG to emulate in the near future, but maybe... or is it a commercial supply, demand issue perculiar to Rhodium more than investment?


----------



## Temjin

Trembling Hand said:


> comments




The gold/silver manipulation theory is quite extensive not to mention being quite sensitive as well. It would take more than several posts just to answer your questions. I don't claim to know EVERYTHING about the theory nor do i have any real hard evidences that the manipulations are real. 

However, the facts remain that the "8 or less" traders in the COT are holding 83% (latest figures) of the silver shorts. That's over 50,000 contracts or over 200 days worth of global production. These are pure numbers taken from the COT report. You asked how come they could hold so many contracts and not blown out of the water yet when the silver prices ran a lot higher several weeks ago? Good question, but I have no idea. The central banks and investment banks have been doing it and they are still definitely in the water. That's billion of dollar on paper lost. Is it logical? Not really, it doesn't make sense to me either but it is still a fact. 

Another funny thing is that the exchange imposed a position limit of 1500 contracts per trade on the long side only. But the limit for short contracts is essentially unlimited. Why set up such a restriction? Yes, this is pure fact as well, go and ask the exchange. 

As for the volume / 9-10am issue, yep, there is no solid proof that "some ppls" are massively shorting to suppress the price at a particular time for a particular reason. However, the pattern have continued to exist for quite some time now.

At the end of the day, we just want to make profit from whatever opportunities that we can take advantage of. The "manipulation" is something I would like to use a small portion of my wealth to bet on. (unlike the real bugs who use their entire net wealth on it, so obviously could be biased) Whether you view this as an opportunity for a trade or not, it's up to you.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Temjin said:


> Another funny thing is that the exchange imposed a position limit of 1500 contracts per trade on the long side only. But the limit for short contracts is essentially unlimited. Why set up such a restriction? Yes, this is pure fact as well, go and ask the exchange.




 That is not a funny thing that is how Futures work. Market makers who sell options need to hedge. if they had restrictions on short positions there would be no options market. It aint a conspiracy its how arbitrage works!!



Temjin said:


> However, the pattern have continued to exist for quite some time now.
> Whether you view this as an opportunity for a trade or not, it's up to you.




Actual I test these intraday Fut patterns more than most. I ran a back test on the intraday data and that pattern you are so convinced is there just isn't. Will post the data later when I run a longer test.


----------



## professor_frink

Temjin said:


> The gold/silver manipulation theory is quite extensive not to mention being quite sensitive as well. It would take more than several posts just to answer your questions. I don't claim to know EVERYTHING about the theory nor do i have any real hard evidences that the manipulations are real.
> 
> However, the facts remain that the "8 or less" traders in the COT are holding 83% (latest figures) of the silver shorts. That's over 50,000 contracts or over 200 days worth of global production. These are pure numbers taken from the COT report. You asked how come they could hold so many contracts and not blown out of the water yet when the silver prices ran a lot higher several weeks ago? Good question, but I have no idea. The central banks and investment banks have been doing it and they are still definitely in the water. That's billion of dollar on paper lost. Is it logical? Not really, it doesn't make sense to me either but it is still a fact.
> 
> Another funny thing is that the exchange imposed a position limit of 1500 contracts per trade on the long side only. But the limit for short contracts is essentially unlimited. Why set up such a restriction? Yes, this is pure fact as well, go and ask the exchange.




Had you considered that the market for Silver and gold isn't just a place for speculators Temjin?


----------



## Temjin

professor_frink said:


> Had you considered that the market for Silver and gold isn't just a place for speculators Temjin?




Obviously, the commercial producers/users will use future contracts to hedge themselve against price risks. Now have you considered that every posters in this thread is technically a speculator? I don't get what you are trying to imply here. 

Look, I'm not going to have enough hard evidences to back up my claims. I will admit that I have been referring to these bugs instead of doing my own indepth research. They have been doing so for many years and have obviously linked to unbiased sources as evidences. It is simply unfeasible for me to try to further prove their claims. If you feel their conspiracy theory is utterly nonsense and the evidences they put forward are pointless, go ahead and dismiss it. 

Yes, I am biased and I may be skeptical. It is going to take some work to convince me that the governments / central banks are NOT ACTIVELY manipulating the silver/gold prices at any way to prevent the lost of public confidence of their unlimited fiat money. I based my beliefs on the history of the fiat money and the "actions" that these central banks have taken to shape the world to what it is today. But then how could anyone prove this is not true anyway? Call the officials and ask if they are manipulating prices? 

So I guess it's a matter of faith and beliefs in this conspiracy issue. It's the same for those who believe UFO exist but have little hard evidences to show off. (to those who do, let's not go further in this topic. heheh) 

As for Trembling Hand, yes, please show me the data if you are willing to dig into it and try to disprove the theory. If you don't mind, I would like to show it to these "bugs" and see what they have to say about. I'm quite interest to know their answers to these counter-arguments against their manipulation allegations.

Here is what the ex-director of the CTFC have to say about these manipulations. 
http://www.cftc.gov/files/opa/press04/opasilverletter.pdf

The last part of his letter is interesting. He talks about how one should be careful about taking advises from someone who is biased for the opinions they give. But likewise, how do I know if he is telling the truth and is completely unbiased from his side from working for the government? 

This can go on forever.


----------



## MRC & Co

Central banks manipulate money supply, exchange rates, I see no reason why they would not manipulate the POG.  Infact, I can probably find out personally.

Though, every single move in POG cannot be put down to them.  

Either way, it is a market, if that is what happens, so be it, learn to trade it.  For the long-term F/A guys, take it into consideration. 

The arguement is not really going to help anyone investing or trading gold or any of it's related instruments.  Unless of course someone can proove patterns, but as said above, it would be assumed if one did exist, many would be riding the coat tail.

Only thing I have observed but not tested (or perhaps my memory is letting me down ), is over the last 3 or so months, when New York opens for trade, the POG falls over the first hour, more often than not, and by larger %s.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> That $850 is definitely a super strong support level. It almost coincidence with the daily 200 MA as well. That's a lot of confluence here.
> 
> It would be a massive psychological impact if that level is breached. I am sure the Cartels are aiming for it but it seem there are tons of buyers set at that point to buy back in as soon as it dips to that level.
> 
> Will have to wait and see who will win the day.




The line continues to hold.   The US Gold Market report notes (today) that the dips are met with srong buying from Asia and the Middle East.


----------



## professor_frink

Temjin said:


> *Obviously, the commercial producers/users will use future contracts to hedge themselves against price risks.* Now have you considered that every posters in this thread is technically a speculator? I don't get what you are trying to imply here.




In regards to the part above I put in bold, think about how that could be linked to some of the comments below you are saying is manipulation.



> _However, the facts remain that the "8 or less" traders in the COT are holding 83% (latest figures) of the silver shorts._
> 
> _how come they could hold so many contracts and not blown out of the water yet when the silver prices ran a lot higher several weeks ago?_
> 
> _Another funny thing is that the exchange imposed a position limit of 1500 contracts per trade on the long side only. But the limit for short contracts is essentially unlimited. Why set up such a restriction?_


----------



## Temjin

professor_frink said:


> In regards to the part above I put in bold, think about how that could be linked to some of the comments below you are saying is manipulation.




So you are claiming that I believe these commercial producers or users are "manipulating" the prices for a legitimate price risk hedging purposes?

I am asking why these "8 or less" traders, who are definitely NOT a commercial producers or users, are holding 83% of the short contracts? The CFTC have already said that they cannot disclose the identities of these traders and the motives behind them. It is against their policy. They simply said, "We know that these traders are legitimate because of yadda yadda reasons, but it is against the law for me to provide evidences to back our reasons, so just trust us, ok?".

So you can see how this conspiracy theory never dies down. 

Regardless, I don't care if this manipulation is true or not, the underlying fundamental of gold/silver are already bullish enough. Trade if your believe in it, or just trade with your own system and ignore the rest.


----------



## professor_frink

Temjin said:


> So you are claiming that I believe these commercial producers or users are "manipulating" the prices for a legitimate price risk hedging purposes?




No

I'm quite tired today. Perhaps I'm not making much sense.



Temjin said:


> I am asking why these "8 or less" traders, who are definitely NOT a commercial producers or users, are holding 83% of the short contracts? The CFTC have already said that they cannot disclose the identities of these traders and the motives behind them. It is against their policy. They simply said, "We know that these traders are legitimate because of yadda yadda reasons, but it is against the law for me to provide evidences to back our reasons, so just trust us, ok?".
> 
> So you can see how this conspiracy theory never dies down.
> 
> Regardless, I don't care if this manipulation is true or not, the underlying fundamental of gold/silver are already bullish enough. Trade if your believe in it, or just trade with your own system and ignore the rest.




You neglected to mention that these large punters weren't commercial in your earlier post. I think I'll leave you alone now, this could go on forever


----------



## Temjin

professor_frink said:


> No
> 
> I'm quite tired today. Perhaps I'm not making much sense.
> 
> You neglected to mention that these large punters weren't commercial in your earlier post. I think I'll leave you alone now, this could go on forever




I forgot to mention it, so my apologies.  

So back to the originator (MS4N) asking about what happened to that particular price action in his attached graph, ok, I don't really know and I will take back my claim that it is definitely being manipulated. I will merely hint that there is a possibility it was being manipulated and I based it on observed past patterns (yes, it always seem to occur at 9-10am for some reasons) and the claims put forward by these "bugs". (who might be biased as well!) 

Yes, let's leave it alone on this theory for now and get back to more analytical discussion.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Temjin will work on getting more data for that 1st 2 hour NY time back test before I post yah or nah. Only have 3 good months intraday.

But that stat of drops in the first hour is one you find in most bull markets. Gains are made during the Over Night gaps. The average point gain for the ASX200 and S&P 500 during the day from 04 to 08 was Nothing all the gain was in the gap. 

Have a look ,here

Will get the stats together soon on gold.


----------



## professor_frink

Temjin said:


> I forgot to mention it, so my apologies.
> 
> So back to the originator (MS4N) asking about what happened to that particular price action in his attached graph, ok, I don't really know and I will take back my claim that it is definitely being manipulated. I will merely hint that there is a possibility it was being manipulated and I based it on observed past patterns (yes, it always seem to occur at 9-10am for some reasons) and the claims put forward by these "bugs". (who might be biased as well!)
> 
> Yes, let's leave it alone on this theory for now and get back to more analytical discussion.




To get it onto a more analytical side Temjin, could you explain for me exactly which part of the COT data you got this 83% figure from?

I just can't find anywhere where you would find that info???

The latest COT report has a figure for the % of OI held by the largest 8 traders. I can't find where this figure is broken down into commercials/non commercials?


----------



## rederob

Temjin said:


> Tell me which markets have only 8 or less traders that control 80% of the volume?
> 
> The COT report for gold/silver obviously indicate that these "8 or less" traders are holding 80%+ of the short contracts. And has stepped up the concentration ever since gold was in bull market.
> 
> Why would these traders, or rather, the central banks and investment banks, are holding such a massive concentration of shorts? What are their reasons for it? Obviously, those holding the longs are the commercials (producers!),  hedge funds and private individuals.




Not readily determinable from the published data:


----------



## CamKawa

Looks like since the start of the correction the commercials have stepped up to the buying plate and the large investors have headed for the exit. Explod, that's you in the red (small spec) holding firm


----------



## barrett

Volume data is indicating a huge rally tonight


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> Volume data is indicating a huge rally tonight




How is it doing that?


----------



## barrett

In the usual way!  Volume spikes come in on the rallies..


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> In the usual way!  Volume spikes come in on the rallies..



...and the selloffs....and the headfakes.

Nice move however.


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> Volume data is indicating a huge rally tonight



Nice call BTW... 20 buck move.


----------



## Whiskers

It's having a bit of a poke a bit higher as I post, but I doubt it will do much better for now. I'm still expecting it to pretty much mark time a bit lower for a few more months until the USD re-aligns itself a bit stronger.

Prolly just a final nervious gasp up before the US stock markets open. 

PS: Actually, I think the last top a few days ago could probably qualify as an evening (double) star... (double) doomed to fail. 

PPS: Yeah good pick... but did you get out before it crashes again?


----------



## rederob

wayneL said:


> Nice call BTW... 20 buck move.




Yes, sharp.
Oil led the charge many hours before - now in the mid $125s again.


----------



## MRC & Co

Very nice move, I hope you were on board Barrett!


----------



## barrett

I was, but closing out now at 886 spot.. could go higher tonight but I'd be surprised too..

still no idea what changed so radically in the fundamentals..  Iran just bombed Riyadh?  Perth Mint announce a free 'erotic massage' with every ounce sold?  Is it just the institutional traders playing games?

Maybe the move between 2nd-14th May was an impulse move up I and correction II... and i of III is finishing around now.
If that count is right, there would probably be a pullback, ii of III, into say the high 870s over the next day or so, then iii of III breaks through 900 within the next week.  So probably looking to go long again on a pullback in the next day or two depending on the market action..

I don't think that bullish count necessarily picks an argument with the more bearish predictions for this correction because there can be sharp counter-trend rallies.  Not usually impulses but could be.  After all gold typically finds a bottom around this time OR often around August which is still several months away and the correction won't go in a straight line even if heading lower..

PS Whiskers, I'm not much chop on candlesticks but is that a morning star doji yesterday on your daily chart?  At least if today closes up?


----------



## josjes

Jim sinclair says Hello for Gold Bull 

Dear CIGAs,

Gold hit the bottom of this reaction on Thursday, April 28th. It has a great deal of work to do, but do it, gold will.

There is no question in my mind but that gold will try $1000 from the April 28th low, fail, come back fast and succeed.

To keep it simple:

    * No Bear market in the euro.
    * No Bull market in the US dollar.
    * No top in Gold.

All else is the daily dose of spin and cover up.


----------



## Whiskers

barrett said:


> I was, but closing out now at 886 spot..




Good job. Ya nailed that one. 



> PS Whiskers, I'm not much chop on candlesticks but is that a morning star doji yesterday on your daily chart?  At least if today closes up?




Nah, It needed to gap up at the open of that candle by more than 50c.


----------



## CamKawa

*Dollar rally, leaks put fresh focus on G7 meetings*

*SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Currency traders now suspect U.S. and European finance officials of some atypical arm-twisting to support the U.S. dollar at last month's G7 meeting, a gathering that initially made little splash in currency markets. *


Gains of 2% to 5% in the U.S. dollar from a key low point last month, combined with recent press statements from anonymous senior finance officials, have fostered suspicions that the group of industrialized nations backed up their public statements with some backdoor negotiations. 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={865DEDE5-6B7C-4EA9-A3C3-33FDFBD858F2}


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> *Dollar rally, leaks put fresh focus on G7 meetings*
> 
> *SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Currency traders now suspect U.S. and European finance officials of some atypical arm-twisting to support the U.S. dollar at last month's G7 meeting, a gathering that initially made little splash in currency markets. *
> 
> 
> Gains of 2% to 5% in the U.S. dollar from a key low point last month, combined with recent press statements from anonymous senior finance officials, have fostered suspicions that the group of industrialized nations backed up their public statements with some backdoor negotiations.
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={865DEDE5-6B7C-4EA9-A3C3-33FDFBD858F2}




The G7 have grave concerns because they hold so many US dollars.   This from the mid May Privateer:-     







> "The US 2006 deficit was $US 811.5 Billion.   This is the one which the US has to seek foreign funds from right around the world to cover on an ongoing basis.  Foreign central banks now own 53 percent of US Treasury debt while 64 percent of their total foreign currency reserves are held in US Dollars.  As a centre of economic or monetary financial gravity, the US is a hollow shell, dependant on inflows of foreign funds of $US 1 TRILLION annually"
> 
> [end quote]
> 
> One day soon there will be a rush to unload the $US, when that day comes the gold price will rocket up beyond what even gold bugs expect.   Even with the recent rhetoric of the G7 behind the scenes to the spruikers one can almost feel the dollar wanting to fall and the gold price wanting to break out.
> 
> Interesting times


----------



## Whiskers

Here we go for probably another evening star. We have a (5c ) gap up for the star. 

If the current candle closes above 882.50, we have the star and a good chance of another down leg.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Here we go for probably another evening star. We have a (5c ) gap up for the star.
> 
> If the current candle closes above 882.50, we have the star and a good chance of another down leg.





Evening star usually requies a gap between it and the previous candle to have the legs.   If it does fail and goes up what is your next call from there.


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> Evening star usually requies a gap between it and the previous candle to have the legs.   If it does fail and goes up what is your next call from there.




So long as the current daily candle finishes up, it will be a star. If it closes much more than a few dollars higher, it probably wont form an evening star. It could just be a little gap up in a shorter term move, which may or may not get filled.

In the previous chart, there was a bigger gap up over 860 on the 5th May, which given the trend line, for me suggests that it will be filled and adds weight to the shorter term trending a bit lower yet.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Here we go for probably another evening star. We have a (5c ) gap up for the star.
> 
> If the current candle closes above 882.50, we have the star and a good chance of another down leg.




Actually the trend line is about $4 higher on that last candle on the log chart.

I didn't post the log chart because I can't draw lines on it and was too lazy to edit in another program. 

Thought I'd post that just to show the little run up again this evening isn't really as strong as it would appear from that chart. :


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Actually the trend line is about $4 higher on that last candle on the log chart.
> 
> I didn't post the log chart because I can't draw lines on it and was too lazy to edit in another program.
> 
> Thought I'd post that just to show the little run up again this evening isn't really as strong as it would appear from that chart. :




A 9 dollar jump up in the last 30 minutes is not a bad little one to me.  If we follow the action of the last few nights a finish above US$ 900 could be on.


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> looks like this might just be the start of the acceleration phase down? Looked like a pretty weak rally from day 1 (as expected "a bounce"). IMO a very tough next few months coming up for the precious metals.
> We have heard many times before the "the long term fundementals are intact" and the "the dollar is doomed".  The reply to these comments has been: *Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope for. *



I see gold about to break over $900 ($899.98 as I post this).
It will probably retreat again.
But technical projections to the low $700 range are as fanciful as oil projections suggesting another tilt at $60
If either event ever sees the light of day (in the next 5 years), I will pour many hundreds of thousands of dollars into underlying equities.


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> A 9 dollar jump up in the last 30 minutes is not a bad little one to me.  If we follow the action of the last few nights a finish above US$ 900 could be on.




And up a couple more too. If it finishes above 895, it'll be hard to see it fall enough at open of next candle to make an evening star... although, if the housing starts and comsumer sentiment no's aren't too bad there will be a good chance of it coming back to close nearer the open.

The USD is getting a bit of a dumping again which accounts for the rise in gold. 

On both counts I think it is a temporary aberration against the short term trend... and there is still that decent gap up and (double) evening star from earlier. Of all the candle formations the evening star has been the most reliable for me. The end of the recent bull run was an evening star. So I'd be very surprised to see it close above that earlier evening star... above 890ish.


----------



## Whiskers

Well, we should know which way in a few minutes. 5 min chart.

I'm still betting down.


----------



## davidj123

If it does break the 900 level, is that a bulls trap, that is what everybody is looking for, will the pro's take peoples money is the ?


----------



## Whiskers

davidj123 said:


> If it does break the 900 level, is that a bulls trap, that is what everybody is looking for,




I'd have thought so david, but with consumer sentiment a tad worse again and oil spiking up again, the USD out of favour for most of the night, it's testing my judgement.

But at the end of the day I think it's more a case of end of week jitters... what to do... which way to turn. 

Bugga it... gotta get some sleep. See if they don't stage an infamous turn-around in the last hour again... after I've had my kip and brekky.


----------



## josjes

Gartman did a U turn. After calling short when gold turned down $940 in mid April, is now long on gold on a close of 890 or if it stays above it for few hours. 


"As for gold, we will shock our clients around the world as
we chose once again to turn bullish of the yellow metal.
We had hoped to see gold trade down to $820 or so as
the late long who've been holding to their position. hoping
to be bailed out, are not and are left to liquidate into
panic. However, it now appears that the drive downward
through $850 earlier this month was sufficient and that
order has been restored. The recent gold sales from the
signatories to the Washington Agreement have been
uncommonly small and that has tended to raise our
bullish antennae accordingly. Toss into that the fact that
the dollar is beginning to weaken once again, and toss in
that the future notion that the general commodities
market indices are still trending higher and we have the
ammunition needed to rejoin the bullish hunt.
Thus, we'll buy one unit of gold this morning upon receipt
of this commentary, and on a close above $890... or if
spot gold should trade above $890 for an hour or two to
prove the merit of its move... we'll add a second unit. ."

"As noted above, we wish to
return to the gold market from the long side. Having exited from all of
out gold back in mid-late April at or near $945-$950, it is reasonable that
we should be looking to buy back that which we had sold. Certainly in
retrospect we wish we'd had the courage to buy when spot gold traded
below $850 for an instant earlier this month, but we are not that wise..
nor that lucky. As we write, spot gold is trading at or very near to $880,
and we'll buy it "at the market." One unit shall suffice for now."

http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/051608.pdf


----------



## davidj123

That sounded like a poem, if only gold could go to one thousand.

 Well that's as poetic as I get, I think the US is dreamin that they are not in a resession and I they will get a weaker ( $ ), GOLD will go up to, let's say $1200.00 as a new high. Time will tell


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Reporting I was stopped on my shorts!

I was wrong! but this don't mean I am bullish!


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Reporting I was stopped on my shorts!
> 
> I was wrong! but this don't mean I am bullish!




Not very bold in view of where oil and now the dollar is going.  Its about money, and gold is a currency.  People lump it with being a commodity.   Because it was held down artificially as oil rose it has a bit of catching up.   My betting is that it will end trading tonight at US$899 then pick up the strings later next week.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Not very bold in view of where oil and now the dollar is going.  Its about money, and gold is a currency.  People lump it with being a commodity.   Because it was held down artificially as oil rose it has a bit of catching up.   My betting is that it will end trading tonight at US$899 then pick up the strings later next week.




ha ha ha

You throwing prices around now explod! nice to see. 

Mate prices are to buy and sell off. I don't quote em no more. see what happens, chart will tell us what to do. 

Nice thoughts, personally I don't really care what it does or what people think it is or is not. It's just a market it I'll show us what to do just have to wait and listen.

Below chart is what I trade off. No thoughts, if I get a buy signal I buy if it's a sell I sell. Simple as that no thinking just watching and listening then acting. Nice and simple and a hell of a lot less reading! But I must admit I do check all news releases that are coming out, as some I won't hold a position on. (one of my rules)

Cheers


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> ha ha ha
> 
> You throwing prices around now explod! nice to see.
> 
> Mate prices are to buy and sell off. I don't quote em no more. see what happens, chart will tell us what to do.
> 
> Nice thoughts, personally I don't really care what it does or what people think it is or is not. It's just a market it I'll show us what to do just have to wait and listen.
> 
> cheers




I agree and do follow the market sentiment which is anticipated best by following, in my case the chart.    However it does help to follow the value of the market as well.   The US dollar has lost its value so is going down.  (Oil is just a symptom, takes more dollars to buy a barrell)   Currency traders would not agree because they follow charts and the technical indicators.    Gold in (or as a) reserve holds its value.

Most of the G7(as we discussed earlier) want out  of US dollars and have stopped selling gold, in fact are starting to accumulate it.   Middle East refusing to take US$.    Could go on but so much to it, need more kip.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Currency traders would not agree because they follow charts and the technical indicators.    Gold in (or as a) reserve holds its value.




If I was trading Gold I would trade it the exact same way i am trading FX. I would trade the Spot price but i may have to up my time frame to allow for the .50 cent spread to fit in with my MM.

to me a market is a market.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> If I was trading Gold I would trade it the exact same way i am trading FX. I would trade the Spot price but i may have to up my time frame to allow for the .50 cent spread to fit in with my MM.
> 
> to me a market is a market.





OK, point taken.   I invest or trade longer term.   Mostly have physical gold (not prcatical to change that often) for the long term.   Began accumulating 2004 and will hold for some years to come.   A big spike, say US$2,500 may take some profit.     So I see the whole thing from a different view point.   On the ASX I only hold two penny dreadfuls at this time, again for the longer term.    

I do take an active interest in the charts short term but only as a support to my fundamental outlook.   In some ways it would be better if there were two different threads.   I should not enter the short term debate perhaps but if I see things going very much the other way cant help myself.   Feathers stick out too much.


----------



## refined silver

>Apocalypto< said:


> I was wrong! but this don't mean I am bullish!




Nice to hear! Does this mean you've given up on the $600 targets? Or just for now? Does it also mean you were wrong about the obnoxious abusive emails you sent also?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

refined silver said:


> Nice to hear! Does this mean you've given up on the $600 targets? Or just for now? Does it also mean you were wrong about the obnoxious abusive emails you sent also?




No not at all RS,

I have a firm set of trading beliefs that may not be shared by yourself or other members. I have developed these beliefs form my trading and from the books I have read. I am a strong believer in the words and teachings of Mark Douglas I have read trading in the zone twice now, now about to read disciplined trader. I have no issue in being wrong it's just as good to be wrong as it's to be right. No matter how good my analysis no trade is any thing more then a random event. A 50/50 were I believe the odds are in my favor but it's never a sure thing.

I stand by the PM I sent you and all the comments I have made. they may have been harsh in your eyes but I if you look deeper into my comments I am really trying to teach you some new skills. 

As stated to Explod,

I do trade with numbers in target form. I only trade what presents itself on my chart. So again my thoughts on were Gold is headed are just guesses like anyone else. 

I am not bullish on gold yet. this rally is showing buying support no doubt about it. but again if it fails to make a a good lower high or a wave 1 2 then start a three I can't say It's confrimation. This could still be a thrust that fails to make a new high and continues down. So it's time to wait and watch. 

Cheers
Joseph


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like we finally got the break out to the earlier target of $900. $40 in 2 days just a little too quick for me, but maybe a presage of imminent rapid developments?


----------



## refined silver

>Apocalypto< said:


> No not at all RS,
> 
> I have developed these beliefs form my trading and from the books I have read. I am a strong believer in the words and teachings of Mark Douglas I have read trading in the zone twice now, now about to read disciplined trader. I have no issue in being wrong it's just as good to be wrong as it's to be right. No matter how good my analysis no trade is any thing more then a random event. A 50/50 were I believe the odds are in my favor but it's never a sure thing.
> 
> I stand by the PM I sent you and all the comments I have made. they may have been harsh in your eyes but I if you look deeper into my comments I am really trying to teach you some new skills.




Apocalypto, about the time of the recent bottom in gold, the chart had just broken the neckline of a bearish H&S and technically looked headed much lower. I and a few others stated that we doubted very much that gold would head much lower and in fact was probably about to turn higher. I also pointed out that the worst looking TA had been the best time to buy in gold for the last 7 years. (buy the dips)

You accused me and then others of following gurus (and funnily enough, now you start naming yours!!). You made about 5 accusations/guesses by email which were all totally wrong as was your gold call (which at least you've graciously acknowledged).

Thanks for the teaching offer, but forgive me if I pass on it, from someone who sends unsolicited, obnoxious, accusatory and incorrect emails, and at the same time is so obviously clueless on gold.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

refined silver said:


> Apocalypto, about the time of the recent bottom in gold, the chart had just broken the neckline of a bearish H&S and technically looked headed much lower. I and a few others stated that we doubted very much that gold would head much lower and in fact was probably about to turn higher. I also pointed out that the worst looking TA had been the best time to buy in gold for the last 7 years. (buy the dips)
> 
> You accused me and then others of following gurus (and funnily enough, now you start naming yours!!). You made about 5 accusations/guesses by email which were all totally wrong as was your gold call (which at least you've graciously acknowledged).
> 
> Thanks for the teaching offer, but forgive me if I pass on it, from someone who sends unsolicited, obnoxious, accusatory and incorrect emails, and at the same time is so obviously clueless on gold.




Nice post mate I am touched.
:
each to there own.  I can see now that your a lost cause I won't waste any more time with u. I hope u make a million, charge on!

If you're so upset about my pm then send it to Joe.

Case closed.


----------



## MRC & Co

Speaking to the 'worlds #1 hedge fund' the other day, interesting to note they are long gold.  

Of all the charts posted, Uncles recent chart tells me the most.  Simple but important.  

I hear further rate cuts in the US are being mentioned in the pits once more.......



Just on another note, looking at a consenus of opinion the oil bull will continue to rage, commodity prices are seeing no limits (some of the recent price negotiations are astounding), inflation expected globally (and being seen), I see only one direction for gold (in the medium-term) and _think_ this may just be the start of it's next run.  

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

>Apocalypto< said:


> Nice post mate I am touched.
> :
> each to there own.  I can see now that your a lost cause I won't waste any more time with u. I hope u make a million, charge on!
> 
> If you're so upset about my pm then send it to Joe.
> 
> Case closed.




Yeah, we'll leave it there. I can't forward it as it was deleted straight away, but I've been far more respectful to you in my posts, than you were in the email. 

Maybe in future you'll think first before sending people messages telling them they're a lost cause, loser at trading, how they trade etc (when you have no clue) and telling them to not bother replying, (because you just wanted to dump on them) all because you disagree with their take on the market, when they weren't even talking with you in the first place!


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> I hear further rate cuts in the US are being mentioned in the pits once more.......




Really? You must be talking to the wrong people...

Nothing being "priced" in. Looks like a bottom in rates to me.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Really? You must be talking to the wrong people...
> 
> Nothing being "priced" in. Looks like a bottom in rates to me.




Yes, I was waiting for a similar chart to be posted in response 

Not enough talk to move a market yet.


----------



## explod

As everyone seems to be a bit fractious, I suppose the recent correction has frayed the nerves a tad, I though it might be interesting to come back to the theme of our thread, GOLD - WHERE IS IT HEADING  ?

Against the Halifax Price Index house prices have risen an average of 8% a year since the early 1980's and wagers have done similar.    In 1980 gold spiked at US$850 so against that basis the real value of gold should be US$8,000 an ounce.

The following I have trotted out before but worth putting in here against the above:-

In 1970 gold started an uptrend then from US$35 an ounce and blew off the top in 1980 at 850., or 24 times 35.    In 2001 our base low was US$260 so by 24 times we could expect a repitition to take it to US$6,240  which is not that far away from the rough inflation amount above.

Of course for me, and this is where there is skepticism, the situation though bad in 1980 was a walk in the park to where I beleive we are headed today and the $US back then was regarded as strong and invincible as the world reserve currency.  

It is interesting that the pundits of Wall Street seem to think they have hit the bottom.  Fuel costs alone have doubled in 12 months.  Home forclosures in April hit a quarter million, a rate that is three times that of 2 years ago. 
The problems for the US have not even hit home yet let alone hit the bottom line.  In the last few months discreationary spending has also virtually stopped.   Such matters take months or more to be reflected in the real figures.   The same stories are coming out of the UK and China is having some rude awakenings also.   

I applaude those doing well on the short term trades, but for me, the bunker till after the bombs hit, and damned pleased to have learnt be long physical.


----------



## refined silver

MRC & Co said:


> I hear further rate cuts in the US are being mentioned in the pits once more.......




I think rates will decrease further too, as more shoes drop in the the credit crisis. At the moment all the spin is everything is sorted, the worst is over. 

The Fed needed to pause the cuts (pretending that it was finished) to give more room for more cuts later, not that it'll solve the problems, but will allow for more spin and jawboning that all is under control. 

All will lead to higher gold.


----------



## Kauri

refined silver said:


> I think rates will decrease further too, as more shoes drop in the the credit crisis. At the moment all the spin is everything is sorted, the worst is over.
> 
> The Fed needed to pause the cuts (pretending that it was finished) to give more room for more cuts later, not that it'll solve the problems, but will allow for more spin and jawboning that all is under control.
> 
> *All will lead to higher gold*.




When...   
.............monday
.............monday weak
.............monday month 
.............monday eventually
.............a monday too far

Cheers
........Kauri  

   :alcohol:


----------



## Bintang

Though the topic of this forum is "Gold price - where is it heading" I have to say that as an Australian investor I am ultimately interested in where is the gold price heading in AUSTRALIAN dollars. For which reason and for general interest I have prepared the attached charts of USD and AUD gold price versus oil price and USD:AUD rates of exchange versus gold prices.  I think these charts illustrate quite nicely how over the long term there has been a strong correlation between gold and oil prices. For the bulls forecasting gold prices in USD/oz of around $1600 or for the bears who think it is going to crash to $600/oz it is worth glancing at these charts and asking  what each of those price movements would mean in terms of corresponding future oil prices and exchange rates for USD versus AUD. I am not offering a forecast here based on these charts. If anyone wants to they can draw their own colnclusions. I will simply add that I have recently put 35% of my portfolio from cash into a mixture of gold bullion and gold stocks.


----------



## CamKawa

Bintang said:


> I will simply add that I have recently put 35% of my portfolio from cash into a mixture of gold bullion and gold stocks.



What gold stocks did you buy?


----------



## Bintang

CamKawa said:


> What gold stocks did you buy?




LGL & TRY.


----------



## wavepicker

Gold has mounted a rally of the lows it's low in this current bear campaign, but already the bulls are back reinforcing their bullish stance with  almost with every rising tick.

I remain bearish Gold for the medium term, I believe this is just a rally in the the downtrend that started from the $1030 high. For me this rally should find resistance ( and is thus a dud) between $920-940 and will use it as an opportunity to make another short if the right circumstances present themselves( I do however concede that it could also go higher and a retest is possible in the market and thus invalidate my thoughts). It doesn't matter as I have made contingencies for such a situation. I don't hope and hang like the perma bulls posting here of late. That is my style, not saying what they are doing is incorrect, as it is their style. But by the same token I wish them to repsect that and to simply stop nitpicking every single chart and piece of text I post. 

I have posted my EW analysis for Gold some weeks ago and the reasons for the bearish stance, I went short on Gold back then I made some reaonable coin. 
Being a medium term swing trader (as many others do on this forum) I don't have any biases as such, I just trade my plan bearish or bullish, flowing in and out of trades with the market.

My very long term(secular) stance on Gold remains bullish. One reason for this is well represented by the Dow/Gold ratio chart below(chart is not current). If one looks closely at this chart it's easy to see that the average bear campaign since 1896 has been 14 years. The current leg down is only 8 years. 
I also use another cycle called the "Metonic Cycle" which certain Gann schools are familiar with. The Metonic Cycle runs for 19 years and 5 days. The bear market in Gold ran from 1980 till 1999 (1 metonic Cycle) and so the current bull using this cycle is due to complete in 2017/2108. There are numerous other examples in many other markets of this cycle at work.

The reason for my current stance at this juncture is that the market is showing evidence for the possibility of a multi year intervening rally in the Dow Gold ratio and the US Dollar. Exact timing has been a problem, but thus far we have seen completed impulses from 1999 to 2008 in Spot Gold, Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, and The Gold Bugs Index AND the Dow/Gold ratio(see chart below). These are classic EW completions, make no mistake about that, lots of confluence there.

However the biggest clue of all has come from the Silver and Gold markets themselves, with Gold making an new alltime high by surpassing the 1980 peak but Silver failing to overtake it's 1980 peak. A bearish non confirmation if I ever saw one.

Once again concede that anything is possible and this could also be invalidated. No one can tell the future and as such when trading an as such a game plan is must. For now, no reason change the current line of thinking and looking to position short if the correct circumstances manifest themselves.


Cheers


----------



## refined silver

> =Kauri;294501]When...
> .............monday
> .............monday weak
> .............monday month
> .............monday eventually
> .............a monday too far
> 
> Cheers
> ........Kauri





Since the Fed only meets every 6 weeks, barring emergencies the first 2 are out. The pause is til the next emergency, when the Fed needs to be seen to "be doing something". Have no idea when, but can't see it being in too many meetings time.

If you are in stocks or in physical, without margin, it doesn't matter too much.


----------



## CamKawa

Bintang said:


> LGL & TRY.



LGL looks like it might be worth a punt but I just had a look at TRY and well... why did you buy that?


----------



## wavepicker

CamKawa said:


> LGL looks like it might be worth a punt but I just had a look at TRY and well... why did you buy that?




hello camkawa. I was looking at LGL recently as well but decided against it. We have just come out of an 8 year bull campaign. Sure LGL price decline has satisfied my min retrace requirements(0.382 of the entire advance). Have called this red wave 1. If red wave 2 is complete(the current leg down), it is very small in terms of time to red wave one. My guess is, that this wave 2 is incomplete  and will most likely turn turn into something more complex before finding a proper low. Sure, an orthodox price low might be in, but this market may also meander sideways for quite a while which is a good as a bear market IMO as there are other opportunities being missed at the same time. My 2c is, what is the market doing medium term? It's going down. Trade what you see, but that is just me and anything is possible

Cheers


----------



## CamKawa

My fear about buying gold now is if oil corrects gold might get hammered again. $WTIC has an RSI of 67.64 and is knocking on the door of overbought territory.


----------



## wavepicker

CamKawa said:


> My fear about buying gold now is if oil corrects gold might get hammered again. $WTIC has an RSI of 67.64 and is knocking on the door of overbought territory.




Agreed


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CamKawa said:


> My fear about buying gold now is if oil corrects gold might get hammered again. $WTIC has an RSI of 67.64 and is knocking on the door of overbought territory.




Maybe, maybe not. Oil is (short term spec?) overbought, gold is consolidating/proving. If they are going to revert (or even overshoot) to the historic ratio of 14:1 there is room for oil to correct & not effect gold. Something could be about to happen very soon ie this week, possibly as indicated by Bintang's scatters or simply the gold:wtic chart showing indicators extreme 'oversold'? Time for another rotation?


----------



## MRC & Co

Uncle Festivus said:


> Maybe, maybe not. Oil is (short term spec?) overbought, gold is consolidating/proving. If they are going to revert (or even overshoot) to the historic ratio of 14:1 there is room for oil to correct & not effect gold. Something could be about to happen very soon ie this week, possibly as indicated by Bintang's scatters or simply the gold:wtic chart showing indicators extreme 'oversold'? Time for another rotation?




Agreed.


----------



## CamKawa

Uncle Festivus said:


> Maybe, maybe not. Oil is (short term spec?) overbought, gold is consolidating/proving. If they are going to revert (or even overshoot) to the historic ratio of 14:1 there is room for oil to correct & not effect gold. Something could be about to happen very soon ie this week, possibly as indicated by Bintang's scatters or simply the gold:wtic chart showing indicators extreme 'oversold'? Time for another rotation?



Or if you compare not gold:wtic but wtic:gold then the RSI is 65.56. We could just go around and around here. Somethings got to give.


----------



## Bintang

Uncle Festivus said:


> Maybe, maybe not. Oil is (short term spec?) overbought, gold is consolidating/proving. If they are going to revert (or even overshoot) to the historic ratio of 14:1 there is room for oil to correct & not effect gold. Something could be about to happen very soon ie this week, possibly as indicated by Bintang's scatters or simply the gold:wtic chart showing indicators extreme 'oversold'? Time for another rotation?




Is there something sacrosanct about the ratio 14:1? If so, I don't see the evidence.  The average trend (long-term) of the scatter plot I posted earlier is US$5.8 increase in gold price for every US$1 increase in oil price. I'm bullish on gold and oil but not to the extent of 14:1 (long term). If it ever reaches that ratio again at close to current oil prices it would have to be a short-term spike, which for me would be another great opportunity for selling.


----------



## M34N

wavepicker said:


> I remain bearish Gold for the medium term, I believe this is just a rally in the the downtrend that started from the $1030 high. For me this rally should find resistance ( and is thus a dud) between $920-940 and will use it as an opportunity to make another short if the right circumstances present themselves( I do however concede that it could also go higher and a retest is possible in the market and thus invalidate my thoughts).
> 
> ...
> 
> My very long term(secular) stance on Gold remains bullish. One reason for this is well represented by the Dow/Gold ratio chart below(chart is not current). If one looks closely at this chart it's easy to see that the average bear campaign since 1896 has been 14 years. The current leg down is only 8 years.



Interesting wavepicker, I read a lot of comments from you + others on here about gold and found that one stood out the most.

So basically you would look at going long on gold pretty much next year? At what price would you consider entering to go long?

I personally went long on NCM a week ago after I saw a big turnaround in NCM and a few other gold stocks, and right up to now gold is up some $50 in the past 2 1/2 days of trading, the sentiment seems to have shifted heaps in the past few days so I'm wondering why people think that gold still looks fragile after such a big rally, and the continuing momentum of commodities (and oil in particular). Commodities boom seems to be never ending and I can't see the justification for selling off gold at the moment when a lot of other commodities seem to be going up too, and the inflation risks that exist now and possibilities of further $US weakness and interest rates dropping for a slumping economy.

All signs look bullish to me? Oh well, time will tell...


----------



## CamKawa

M34N said:


> Commodities boom seems to be never ending and I can't see the justification for selling off gold at the moment when a lot of other commodities seem to be going up too, and the inflation risks that exist now and possibilities of further $US weakness and interest rates dropping for a slumping economy.
> 
> All signs look bullish to me? Oh well, time will tell...



You would want to be careful thinking like that.


----------



## explod

Continually many make an error in thinking of gold as part of commodities.   Gold has throughout history been a backing to legal tender, as money untill the Bretton Woods agreement back in the 70's.  However that made money into a paper promise and as economies ebb and flow so now do currency valuations.

The coming of gold again is due to the weakening US dollar, that is the main driver, it has nothing to do with the commodities boom/ or if you like possible bust.   Gold is a hedge against inflation, which is actually paper money devaluation.  The US has massive debt, domestically, publically and offshore.  Production in the US is less than consumption.   Debt repayment is now greater than overall income.  The US dollar can only continue to go down and in return gold will go up, simply because it has an intrinsic value.  There are many other angles to it but in this short explanation these are the prime ones.  A scan of this thread is well worth a look to fully understand.

In the short term many will argue all sorts of directions based on technical analysis and time clock and historical wave counts. For trading, these systems are good, but in the longer term, for the investor, it will be gold as a reliable store of wealth that will see it rise to much greater levels as the coming finacial mess unravels and plays out.


----------



## ithatheekret

Gold moving on the hedge front .... inflation hedge .........

But , oil fencing with records , and transport is leading the way .


----------



## osmosis

explod said:


> Continually many make an error in thinking of gold as part of commodities.




So, in terms of asset allocation in a diversified portfolio, in which category does gold come under (ie gold bullion/coins/ETF's not gold miners)?


----------



## explod

osmosis said:


> So, in terms of asset allocation in a diversified portfolio, in which category does gold come under (ie gold bullion/coins/ETF's not gold miners)?




For me, physical gold in a bank vault.     The standard industry advice seems to be between 10 and 20%     As the idea of gold for those who follow it is to protect against a full financial meltdown then physical is the only way.   Authentic gold and silver coins good.   I do save the Aussie 1966 siver coin which is worth about 6 to $7 for its silver content.


----------



## explod

Did someone put a sign up near the bear trap.  The chill of the deep water financials bringing on hunger pains.

Anyway, gold advanced 3% on the week but silver's jump of 6.5% is significant.   The big moves in this bull have been led by silver breakout, a breakout against very bearish comments on it from Wall Street.    Gold will need to break US$850 though.   US$ staring down the throat of a new low could just do that.  Current treasury yield killing it.

With some of the dire derivative news just breaking we could be in for a very interesting week ahead.


----------



## Firdy

Bintang said:


> Is there something sacrosanct about the ratio 14:1? If so, I don't see the evidence.  The average trend (long-term) of the scatter plot I posted earlier is US$5.8 increase in gold price for every US$1 increase in oil price. I'm bullish on gold and oil but not to the extent of 14:1 (long term). If it ever reaches that ratio again at close to current oil prices it would have to be a short-term spike, which for me would be another great opportunity for selling.




Just coming into this thread, having been an investor in selected junior gold stocks.   I thought the accepted rule of thumb goldil ratio was 10:1, but it's been so long since I hear that that I don't even know where I got that ratio from!


----------



## M34N

explod said:


> With some of the dire derivative news just breaking we could be in for a very interesting week ahead.




To say the least, look at what's coming up (taken from CNBC.com):

MONDAY: All U.S. financial markets closed for Memorial Day
TUESDAY: *Consumer confidence*; *new-home sales*; *S&P/Case-Shiller home price report*; Fed's Yellen speaks; Idaho primary
WEDNESDAY: *Weekly mortgage applications*; *durable goods*; Fed's Stern and Fisher speak
THURSDAY: *Weekly jobless claims*; *weekly crude inventories*; *GDP*; Fed's Kohn speaks
FRIDAY: *personal income and spending*; *Chicago PMI*; *consumer sentiment*; Fed's Rosengren speaks

That's choca-block full of important data out of the US coming up next week, GDP and home sales will be the most important for gold I would think, oh and oil inventories, any more declines in stock piles and it's up up and away.

Personally I see only more bad news here, lower $US, slowdown in the economy, higher inflation, all good for gold. Anyone else willing to go long?


----------



## Bintang

Firdy said:


> Just coming into this thread, having been an investor in selected junior gold stocks.   I thought the accepted rule of thumb goldil ratio was 10:1, but it's been so long since I hear that that I don't even know where I got that ratio from!




Dictionary: rule of thumb 
A useful principle having wide application but not intended to be strictly accurate or *reliable in every situation*.

Right now the 'world' is changing very rapidly. Maybe using rules of thumb for investment decisions is not such a good idea.


----------



## barrett

An upward-sloping support line that began 16 May was broken a few hours ago (simultaneously also in silver)... at the same time RSI(14) on the hourly broke down out of a wedge.. finally just now, an inverse head and shoulders formed over the past 4 hrs failed to hold... it suggests a quick fall from the current 922    

All short term stuff, but pointing to a correction over the next day to say 910 or even 900..... after that, would be looking around to ride a wave 5 UP to 950-960....   I am out of the market for now.


----------



## barrett

that didn't take long... couldn't resist scalping a short on the way down..

Some signs of a bottom beginning to form here.. 906 is 38% retracement of this recent upmove since 865... that would be a reasonable place for wave 5 to begin, with the potential for a quick move to 950-960... 

On the other hand if 900 is broken, might need to rethink that bullish wave count..


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> that didn't take long... couldn't resist scalping a short on the way down..
> 
> Some signs of a bottom beginning to form here.. 906 is 38% retracement of this recent upmove since 865... that would be a reasonable place for wave 5 to begin, with the potential for a quick move to 950-960...
> 
> On the other hand if 900 is broken, might need to rethink that bullish wave count..




Nice call there Barrett . A bit of fluster after the break & sliding with oil but held at 904ish, back to 910. Equities still unconvincing so still waiting for the big drop to re-enter? Talk about volatility! Crazy times...


----------



## barrett

Hi UF,wild times isn't it!  Here's my hourly chart.. but would probably have to bin this wave count on a break below 897..

Seeing this as a potential roadmap only.. &would go long only if other strong bullish signals come in in the short term... I don't put enough trust in my EW to trade on it alone.. keeps me occupied though


----------



## wavepicker

M34N said:


> Interesting wavepicker, I read a lot of comments from you + others on here about gold and found that one stood out the most.
> 
> So basically you would look at going long on gold pretty much next year? At what price would you consider entering to go long?
> 
> I personally went long on NCM a week ago after I saw a big turnaround in NCM and a few other gold stocks, and right up to now gold is up some $50 in the past 2 1/2 days of trading, the sentiment seems to have shifted heaps in the past few days so I'm wondering why people think that gold still looks fragile after such a big rally, and the continuing momentum of commodities (and oil in particular).




Sorry for the late reply. I figure the market is in the process of answering that question quite well at this juncture.

My target range to position short on Gold again was $920-940 as per the last  post in this thread. Nothing has changed, still bearish Gold and target range between $600-700 remains. Not sure how long it will take, just playing it move by move at present. This  EW pattern always looked to good, but I once again concede that nothing is cast in stone.

Even if target is not met I feel that Gold will be at the very least range bound for quite a while., so long term bulls, gonna have to do more waiting.

The USD looks like it might be putting in a higher low ATM which backs up earlier analysis and charts. Time will tell, even if a new low comes in the weeks months ahead I feel it will only be a false break or a brief low.

When is it time it time to get bullish Gold again IMO??  *When most of the current bulls are washed out of the market and become totally disgusted with their positions.*



M34N said:


> Commodities boom seems to be never ending and I can't see the justification for selling off gold at the moment when a lot of other commodities seem to be going up too





When you get that "never ending feeling" is enough justification for me to be selling. 

All the Best

Wavepicker


----------



## explod

I have said all along that gold will not go far till after the Presidential election and I stand by that.   But a retracement to 6 or $700 Wavepicker, you must be dreaming.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> I have said all along that gold will not go far till after the Presidential election and I stand by that.   But a retracement to 6 or $700 Wavepicker, you must be dreaming.





Implod,

I was called a dreamer in 2001 when I picked up Gold under $300. 
Just remember, ANYTHING is possible.  A 38.2-50% retrace since this entire bull started in 1999 is very probable, in fact it is quite typical for a retracement of a completed impulse and happens VERY often at varying degrees of trend. What adds weight to the EW technical argument here is that the span of the previous wave 4 of one less degree is at approximately that level and that is where my eyes are focused. Open your eyes and look what is happening, trade what you see.

Happy holding Implod


----------



## barrett

jeez... duck out for a beef and black bean and look what happens... missed the whole thing, maybe should move to Europe where gold doesn't make its biggest move at dinner time every night

This looks like a big bottoming formation in the low 890s.  I went long at 894.  If 900 is recaptured then the bottom would look more certain, and would look at doubling the long.. the volume is strongly supporting this bullish case at the moment.  The market bounced strongly off the top of wave 1 support at 888.... so the bullish EW could still be valid.


----------



## barrett

US market liquidating down to 900 and just below... volume turns bearish.. covering longs for now..


----------



## refined silver

wavepicker said:


> I was called a dreamer in 2001 when I picked up Gold under $300.




Hi Wavepicker,

I also picked up gold under $300 and silver under $4.50, and have had 100% of the gains since then. My question for you is what percentage of the gains up til now have you missed? 

The above post gives the impression you've had all the gains since then. If you were following Prechter the EW guru on gold he also called for a rally in gold when it was under $300, but he was calling a countertrend rally before a new all time (well, since 1980) low, not a new bull market. So even though he got in under $300, his calls have been wrong for most of the last 7 years.


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> I also picked up gold under $300 and silver under $4.50, and have had 100% of the gains since then. My question for you is what percentage of the gains up til now have you missed?





Have you considered this your best investment during this time? Considering AUS equities gains in that time plus divs??


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> Have you considered this your best investment during this time? Considering AUS equities gains in that time plus divs??




My exposure has all been via equities, mostly juniors. They have been rotated and changed during the last 7 years. 

In hindsight, they've been very good but not the best. 

I chose them though because I believed they were the surest, rather than the best.


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> My exposure has all been via equities, mostly juniors. They have been rotated and changed during the last 7 years.
> 
> In hindsight, they've been very good but not the best.
> 
> I chose them though because I believed they were the surest, rather than the best.




OK. Thought you meant actual gold. Which although has been ok hasn't really been the best trade by a long shot since 01.


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> Hi Wavepicker,
> 
> I also picked up gold under $300 and silver under $4.50, and have had 100% of the gains since then. My question for you is what percentage of the gains up til now have you missed?
> 
> The above post gives the impression you've had all the gains since then. If you were following Prechter the EW guru on gold he also called for a rally in gold when it was under $300, but he was calling a countertrend rally before a new all time (well, since 1980) low, not a new bull market. So even though he got in under $300, his calls have been wrong for most of the last 7 years.




Hello RS,

I liquidated my Gold position at $665(I think from memory) in May 2006 a week or so prior the almost $200 correction. I didn't exit at the peak because I could not tell when that was going to be, but I knew when I did exit back then the trend was at risk and it was only a matter of time before a major correction.  

I must emphasize this entire trade was cycles and EW based. I then traded Gold short @ $720, then long and then short again. If you look back at the posts in this thread during that period I have explained in more detail reasons(technical) for buying and selling.

To answer your question, yes I have missed gains in Gold, but the gains I missed more than exceeded by the short term trades made after exiting my long term long. In any case I also exited for other reasons not related to trading/timing the market so it it doesn't matter.

For me what is important now is where Gold is heading now( I am short the past 2 months) and where it is heading in the months ahead which IMO is lower. There are better opportunities to buy a long in Gold at lower prices IMO if one is patient.

I am not a Gold bull or a bear Refined Silver, I don't have any biases, I just go with the flow as I see fit and don't like to get emotionally attached to positions.

In so far as EW goes, it has been an invaluable tool(for me) for trading the market in
the past, not without flaws I might add, but there is no perfect system out there anyway either fundemental or technical but for me personally EW has been a great tool.

Just my 2c


----------



## explod

The assault on the gold price has begun a little earlier tonight but pretty much the same as the previous two nights.   

Will be interesting to see which way from here for the next few days.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is *OVER!* it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up! 

if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!

I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.

Cheers


----------



## michael_selway

>Apocalypto< said:


> After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is *OVER!* it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!
> 
> if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!
> 
> I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.
> 
> Cheers




Hey does that chart look like that a double bottom could be forming?

thx

MS


----------



## VViCKiD

michael_selway said:


> Hey does that chart look like that a double bottom could be forming?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Looks like POG is trying to touch support 
Hmmzzz ... maybe i should get rid of my BNB stocks and go long on NCM...


----------



## wayneL

michael_selway said:


> Hey does that chart look like that a double bottom could be forming?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Double bottom?

Where?


----------



## Young Gun

I see confluence between todays pivot point and a 28% Fib level from May 4 ($843us) swing low to May 22 ($933us) swing high .

I am seeing a modest rebond from $880 USD to $905 ish before swinging lower. I am having a short term punt , long on gold. Will see how my crystal ball is doing by tommorow.


----------



## Young Gun

crystal ball doing ok , gold already jumped $8us since my last post .

and no i didnt edit the previous post, edit was made at 27 minutes past , see chart


----------



## wayneL

Young Gun said:


> crystal ball doing ok , gold already jumped $17us since my last post .




$17???

I have a low on the June contract of $878.60

Highest since then is $886.70

+ $8.10

Price at time of posting $883.50

+ $ 4.90


----------



## Young Gun

Sorry my mistake $8, getting a bit sleepy i should probably get to bed !


----------



## wayneL

Young Gun said:


> Sorry my mistake $8, getting a bit sleepy i should probably get to bed !






Sounds exactly like my mathematics when sleepy.


----------



## barrett

>Apocalypto< said:


> After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is *OVER!* it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!
> 
> if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!
> 
> I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.
> 
> Cheers




Nearly everyone on the thread has turned medium-term bearish since late March, with some of us trading short term swings and rebounds within the broader corrective phase.  Can you explain how that makes you right and everyone else wrong?  

I was out all evening unavoidably and missed the bearish signals.  Nice work anyone who was short.  

888 was a crucial level in terms of wave count.  Tonight's break of it puts the final nail in the coffin for the short-term bullish count I put up two days ago.  I would say we are in for some steady selling in the weeks ahead.  888 which was previously support, now likely to be strong overhead resistance.... noticing also how the market just retraced to that level and bounced off.  If the mid to high 880s are touched again or the downward move intensifies I'll be looking to place trading shorts.


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> Can you explain how that makes you right and everyone else wrong?



We probably should probably scour our Junge texts for the answer to that.

How 'bout that head fake eh?


----------



## barrett

wayneL said:


> How 'bout that head fake eh?




I see anything going up _that _ quickly as cannonbait unless Bernanke made a sudden rate cut or something... Younggun did well to get in beforehand but $5 up in 1 min is short covering, when they're done and the momentum's through, look out below!

Better keep one eye on the ominous EURUSD cross.. not validated yet, but any break of the red line would be a big red flag for prices of everything in US dollar terms, including gold, probably for at least a month or two..  as discussed here before that might not be very relevant for gold share traders but certainly would be for gold futures/CFD traders...


----------



## wavepicker

barrett said:


> I see anything going up _that _ quickly as cannonbait unless Bernanke made a sudden rate cut or something... Younggun did well to get in beforehand but $5 up in 1 min is short covering, when they're done and the momentum's through, look out below!
> 
> Better keep one eye on the ominous EURUSD cross.. not validated yet, but any break of the red line would be a big red flag for prices of everything in US dollar terms, including gold, probably for at least a month or two..  as discussed here before that might not be very relevant for gold share traders but certainly would be for gold futures/CFD traders...




Tend to agree with you Barret. This is however a 3rd wave in the EURUSD IMO and that break will come very soon. In Gold this is a C wave move that started out of the last high and C waves are likened to 3rd waves and are usually impulses.

I looked at the EURUSD chart from weeks ago and the cycle envelopes I use pointed to a top already in and a low already in the USD. That is why I have spoken bullishly for the USD . Not to mention the relentless bearishness of most to the USD, a classic contrarian trade setup.
The same Cycles Bands hinted to stiff resistance between 920-940 in Gold in the last leg up.
Gold and Silver always counted best as completed impulses, they just looked too good to be otherwise(but anything is possible and one must trade always with protective stops). ATM all I see is 3 wave rallies and three waves always unfold against the one larger trend, the one larger trend is DOWN and the last low of 850( Implod's and Refined Silver's Great Wall of China 28 year support level) will give way easily in the weeks ahead.

Cheers


----------



## explod

Well Silver, looking back the last three weeks looks like a perfect head and shoulders that will complete early next week at about US$855.

But anything is possible.

Interesting times as usual.   The Tanks still have the power to impose thier own ideas but those times are fading.  The imposition is becoming blatantly clear now and the rest of the G7 are going their own way.


----------



## explod

From Jim Sinclair's site:-

<quote>




Posted On: Thursday, May 29, 2008, 4:11:00 PM EST

Gold's Low In Over A Month Ago

Author: Jim Sinclair 




Dear Friends,

I am staying with the position that the price of gold established its LOW in this reaction period on April 28th.

We are entering into an area of major support as gold trades below the $887.50 Angel. That Angel will demonstrate its magnetic influence by pulling gold to the upside.

A worst case scenario bottom on this second decline will be within a range of $18 to $22 under that Angel. A more likely scenario is $10 to $14 under.

In terms of a timeframe to establish the absolute low, which will be a huge Bear Trap, is a few days at the most.

After this absolute low has been established, the $1200 magnet will start pulling on the price of gold once again.

<unquote>


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> I see anything going up _that _quickly as cannonbait unless Bernanke made a sudden rate cut or something... Younggun did well to get in beforehand but $5 up in 1 min is short covering, when they're done and the momentum's through, look out below!
> 
> Better keep one eye on the ominous EURUSD cross.. not validated yet, but any break of the red line would be a big red flag for prices of everything in US dollar terms, including gold, probably for at least a month or two.. as discussed here before that might not be very relevant for gold share traders but certainly would be for gold futures/CFD traders...




I think for we are in a transition stage between the _relative_ fundamentals of the 3 competing currencies of $US, Euro & gold. Gold as a commodity was left in the dust of the capitulating $US several years ago ie jewellery demand as a price mover is nearly redundant. 

We just need time for the system to digest the excesses of non regulation of the creations of the money shufflers eg initially sub prime, now credit default swaps etc.

So while the 'game' is still on with the $US there will be periods of strength relative to the Euro & gold, but the secular bear trend is still intact as the Fed will fight to the end, and have willing partners in the EU who would also like to see their currency become more competitive also. 

The end game will come when it is realised that neither currency has any intrinsic value due to active demonetisation due to the extra priming and or central bank bail outs of distressed institutions ie Northern Bank fiasco.

The rot started in the US when Chysler was bailed out in the late 70's as I recall, and has promoted a culture of official intervention ever since eg LTCM, thrifts etc. Only now the winning formula has hit a stumbling block with the escalation of the stakes with Bear Stearns, we can see the 'moral hazard' level has been incrementally raised to a point of no return - it's crunch time.


----------



## CamKawa

*Market Commentary*​

*Gold *
opened at 893.00/894.00 in New York. The dollar rallied on
the back of positive economic data causing the metal to plummet
down to support near 880.00. It recovered marginally and traded
within a relatively narrow range. Oil inventories fell well below expectations,
which helped oil to move higher but it lost steam and
then tumbled dragging gold to a low of 873.00/874.00. The metal
recovered and ticked sideways closing at 876.25/877.25.​​*Silver *​*
*​*
*opened at 1711.00/1715.00 and dropped sharply following
slumping copper and oil prices. It rebounded but this move was
short lived as dealers later sold reacting to the stronger USD driving
the metal to a low of 1648.00/1652.00. Investors took a breather
during the latter end of the session and silver finally settled at
1648.00/1652.00.​​*Technical Commentary*
*Gold *​
​
continued its drop lower today and produced yet another
bearish candlestick. As we noted yesterday, the 3-month trend is
clearly bearish, as is the candlestick pattern. Other studies are approaching
sell signals, but have yet to officially produce them. This
includes the MACD and trading moving averages. Today’s downward
move opens up a test back to 846 and we would expect this
to materialize in the coming sessions. A break below this level
would be particularly bearish, however should support here hold it
would foreshadow an attempt back towards 935.​​*Silver *​*
*​*
*is now approaching a test of the 50% Fibonacci retracement
of the August to March run, which lies at 16.21. A break and close
below this level would be particularly bearish and would open up a
test of the 200-day moving average (15.76). The aggressiveness of
the downward move over the last two days highlights how control
has rapidly shifted from the bulls to the bears. We would look for
the metal’s reaction around support for clues to its direction from here.​
http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf​


----------



## explod

Silver is an interesting picture, I think it was one of James Turk's commentators stated yesterday that the paper futures contracts on silver are 100 times greater than the actual amount of physical silver.   The gold situation is manipulated in the same manner.   "When the music stops..." as quoted a lot of people holding paper promises are going to go broke and those holding physical will be going the other way. 

Allan Bond and his parachuting house purchases system sent him to gaol but the rest of the financial world loved the idea so much that it is now legal.   But boy, what a crash when it comes.

Just my 2cent rant


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barrett said:


> Nearly everyone on the thread has turned medium-term bearish since late March, with some of us trading short term swings and rebounds within the broader corrective phase.  Can you explain how that makes you right and everyone else wrong?
> 
> I was out all evening unavoidably and missed the bearish signals.  Nice work anyone who was short.
> 
> 888 was a crucial level in terms of wave count.  Tonight's break of it puts the final nail in the coffin for the short-term bullish count I put up two days ago.  I would say we are in for some steady selling in the weeks ahead.  888 which was previously support, now likely to be strong overhead resistance.... noticing also how the market just retraced to that level and bounced off.  If the mid to high 880s are touched again or the downward move intensifies I'll be looking to place trading shorts.




Barret,

Thank you for your reply.

If that is the case my post had nothing to do with you so cool down your steam stack you and I and Wavepicker are in total agreement. I have also been bearish and posting this since then. My post was aimed at a select few. since this is a public board it's nice to name names. 

For now I think we will see a minor rally. But the trend for now is set to the down side unless proven other wise.

Have a nice day barret


----------



## refined silver

>Apocalypto< said:


> After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is *OVER!* it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!
> 
> I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.
> 
> Cheers




Hi A,

If you check the thread, you'll see the most of the "banter" took place when gold was at $850 and had touched $845 just before. I and others were arguing we thought the bottom was about in. (I had also posted much earlier in the decline I thought $825ish was the lowest I thought it would go, with named support levels further up.)

Since that interchange at $850 there has been an $80 rally and now a $50 decline. WP and you suggested $600-700, I and others, (won't name them in case I misquote them!) said we thought gold was going back to its highs and past them without a trip into the 600s and 700s. So I think the jury is still out on this one, and we've a little while to wait to see which way it ends up.

If you've cleaned up on shorts, congratulations, but that doesn't mean others, playing with unmargined shares are wrong either, I've had two shares double in the drop from from $1000, and another just had a takeover bid and went up 50% last week (to new all time highs).

If it goes to $600-700, I'll be the first to say well done.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

refined silver said:


> Hi A,
> 
> If you check the thread, you'll see the most of the "banter" took place when gold was at $850 and had touched $845 just before. I and others were arguing we thought the bottom was about in. (I had also posted much earlier in the decline I thought $825ish was the lowest I thought it would go, with named support levels further up.)
> 
> Since that interchange at $850 there has been an $80 rally and now a $50 decline. WP and you suggested $600-700, I and others, (won't name them in case I misquote them!) said we thought gold was going back to its highs and past them without a trip into the 600s and 700s. So I think the jury is still out on this one, and we've a little while to wait to see which way it ends up.
> 
> If you've cleaned up on shorts, congratulations, but that doesn't mean others, playing with unmargined shares are wrong either, I've had two shares double in the drop from from $1000, and another just had a takeover bid and went up 50% last week (to new all time highs).
> 
> If it goes to $600-700, I'll be the first to say well done.




Nice reply RS cheers,

I have been Bearish on Gold since it's high and I am still bearish the thend has changed on the daily, that obvious to every ones eye's. I still think 700 or less is a good posibility as the new trend is down. 

Cheers


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Nice reply RS cheers,
> 
> I have been Bearish on Gold since it's high and I am still bearish the thend has changed on the daily, that obvious to every ones eye's. I still think 700 or less is a good posibility as the new trend is down.
> 
> Cheers




The 30 day chart still says uptrend, the 60 day sideways and the 6 month still very much uptrend.    Just look at the plain picture, the lines sometimes makes us a bit crosseyed.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> The 30 day chart still says uptrend, the 60 day sideways and the 6 month still very much uptrend.    Just look at the plain picture, the lines sometimes makes us a bit crosseyed.




Explod were u a golden bull in your pased life?  

Mate look at the daily and you tell me the trend is still running up wards. my GOD next u pull out a tick chart and tell me it's bullish!   

I think there will be a minor rally up see what happens


----------



## refined silver

I'm with explode, although agree all the st charts don't look too hot.

On the other hand, step back a bit, and gold went from $650 to over $1000, straight thru its all time at $850 on the monthly chart ($887 on the daily). Re-testing the $850 breakout from a 27 yr high, was to be expected and is hardly bearish.

Anyway, I'm not going to get into a shouting match about where it going, we'll let it play out and see. I agree ST charts are bearish, but I think fundies will trump ST charts and looking back, this will be seen as a great time to have bought.


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> The 30 day chart still says uptrend, the 60 day sideways and the 6 month still very much uptrend.    Just look at the plain picture, the lines sometimes makes us a bit crosseyed.




That 30 day chart trendline is quite a strong/important one for the ST IMO and that was jjust broken on the hourly and now the retracement, I scalped the breakdown and now out, looking to go back in for another short depending on ST action, cheers


----------



## barrett

breakdown confirmed on high vol target 865


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Explod were u a golden bull in your pased life?
> 
> Mate look at the daily and you tell me the trend is still running up wards. my GOD next u pull out a tick chart and tell me it's bullish!
> 
> I think there will be a minor rally up see what happens




As a matter of fact I have no idea.  My front gets the waters boiling though.   My only real interest is in the long term.

As per the last three nights on cue gold is being pushed down at this time (oclock).  I say it over and over that it is a political issue at the moment so will be pushed down to hold the Republican dream together.

But 6 to $700 US, "tell im ee's dreamin"

Pleased to say I have made an excellent trade on GDR over the last month.  The rest of my stuff is in physical.

Little to do with being a Bull IMO., just think it is the safest long term investment in a very uncertain world.


----------



## wavepicker

This is not a competition about who is right or wrong.  

We should not be arguing here about who makes the best call, it doesn't matter. I have been dissapointed at 2 posters on this thread in the past because after posting alternate views based on objective Technical Analysis techniques my analysis is nitpicked constantly because it does not conform to their views and their positions. I am sure they would not have liked it.

The name of this thread is "Where is Gold Headed?" I think we should all try to keep to the spirit of the thread rather than aggrevate each other. Who knows, maybe we could even help each other!!

So where is Gold headed gentlemen?  Well it is headed down, no one can deny this no matter how many lagging MA's, and trendlines you draw. There is no point getting angry at each other, the trend is what it is. How much lower? Well probably much lower becasue ATM there is no evidence to show otherwise. The EURUSD is in a third wave down, the AUDUSD has formed a very bearish Ending Diagonal, the USDJPY is rallying and Oil is tanking. How much evidence does one need to realize something different is happening here?Just like back in 2001 when Gold made a double bottom that ended the bear market( and very few jumped on board then). In the same way the trend has changed now and once again many have missed the boat because they have gotten caught up in the bulltrend and married their positions

Should this come at a surprise? *Absolutely not* It ain't rocket science!!

Ohh and Implod, I am not a dreamer you and RS and dreamers for thinking Gold will rise to 2000 or even 3000. My target is very realistic because it's only 200 bucks away.  Sweet dreams.


----------



## barrett

barrett said:


> breakdown confirmed on high vol target 865




I think I better take that back... the high volume on the rebound and potential inverse head and shoulders forming now suggest it could be an interim bottom after all,l despite the breakdown?  ( I mean for a possible short term rally)


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> From Jim Sinclair's site:-
> 
> <quote>
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Posted On: Thursday, May 29, 2008, 4:11:00 PM EST
> 
> Gold's Low In Over A Month Ago
> 
> Author: Jim Sinclair
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dear Friends,
> 
> I am staying with the position that the price of gold established its LOW in this reaction period on April 28th.
> 
> We are entering into an area of major support as gold trades below the $887.50 Angel. That Angel will demonstrate its magnetic influence by pulling gold to the upside.
> 
> A worst case scenario bottom on this second decline will be within a range of $18 to $22 under that Angel. A more likely scenario is $10 to $14 under.
> 
> In terms of a timeframe to establish the absolute low, which will be a huge Bear Trap, is a few days at the most.
> 
> After this absolute low has been established, the $1200 magnet will start pulling on the price of gold once again.
> 
> <unquote>



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...6cb-4739-adec-1ee15f9cf395}&dist=mostreadhome


----------



## explod

One of the great things that we have achieved Wavepicker, since we began to debate is that you now recognise the importance of gold versus currencies.

Gold is not a commodity, it is a tangible currency.   In the short term you have picked the trend well W/P. and take my hat off to you.  

We all know what inflation is starting to and will continue to do to currencies so the longer term is a no brainer.

Interesting times ahead


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> One of the great things that we have achieved Wavepicker, since we began to debate is that you now recognise the importance of gold versus currencies.
> 
> Gold is not a commodity, it is a tangible currency.   In the short term you have picked the trend well W/P. and take my hat off to you.
> 
> We all know what inflation is starting to and will continue to do to currencies so the longer term is a no brainer.
> 
> Interesting times ahead




I totally agree with you explod and always thought the same, I have deep down always been a Gold bug but I am not in the habit of collecting Gold for this reason.  although I understand the importance of Gold vs the fiat currency system, my reasons for justifying trades are from the charts, looking for circumstances from which to trade from. It does not have to be Gold, it can be any liquid intrument that exhibits the trait of a good trending markets.

After a long time at looking at charts something happened to me that I thought was not possible. Quite simply I pick and look at a chart and don't bother looking at the the name of the company or instrument. I just look at patterns and that alongside the liquidity factor is my basis for buying and selling.


----------



## Whiskers

>Apocalypto< said:


> After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is *OVER!* it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!
> 
> if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!
> 
> I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.
> 
> Cheers




Hey, you can't steal all the credit. I was in there too. :

Only, from a more FA, I'm calling the POG more sideways than down until about year end or so. I also basically agree that the USD will appreciate a bit more in the short term, but I'm not expecting another lower low for the XAO, because of how all these factors will probably re-align with each other.

I'm expecting the POG to gain more in AUD than USD as the major currencies and POG re-align with a bit stronger USD. 

I think it also should be kept in mind the reputed enormous growth in funds slooshing around in the 'speculative' markets, including oil lately, probably creating a bit of self-fullfilling volatility and scewing TA a bit.


----------



## Temjin

I'm more like a gold bug in fundamental sense but technically, I believe gold will at best consolidate in range for quite some time, probably 2 months+.  

The weekly chart still look quite bearish to me. Until I get a confirmation from there, it's a short term play. 

I would be quite surprised to see POG to drop below 850 and head back toward 600-700 range. I'm sure if that it does that, all the commentors will start yelling the gold bull is over and it's time to invest back in the US dollars again. 

Wavepicker, can you pick up a similar EW pattern for US dollars to move back up by a significant amount over the next few months? I would be interested to know. If you see bear in USD and bear in gold, and then it actually happens in the real world, then it would be the first time in history that these two "assets" defy their traditional correlations. 

Remember people, everybody have their own style of tradings. Being right or wrong does not really matter, it's being able to exploit the trend (with obvious position sizing strategies) for profit that's more important.


----------



## Whiskers

wavepicker said:


> After a long time at looking at charts something happened to me that I thought was not possible. Quite simply I pick and look at a chart and don't bother looking at the the name of the company or instrument. I just look at patterns and that alongside the liquidity factor is my basis for buying and selling.




I've recently also had a 'vision'  after ages looking at charts. 

I've never been very fond of lagging MA's, but one day I spent ages fiddling with some particular types of MA's with price and volume's until I came up with three in combination that I've got working pretty well on the daily and intraday charts to indicate good probability movements.

But I'm still working on waves and P&F. That hasn't quite come to me yet.


----------



## refined silver

wavepicker said:


> This is not a competition about who is right or wrong.
> 
> We should not be arguing here about who makes the best call, it doesn't matter. I have been dissapointed at 2 posters on this thread in the past because after posting alternate views based on objective Technical Analysis techniques my analysis is nitpicked constantly because it does not conform to their views and their positions. I am sure they would not have liked it.
> 
> The name of this thread is "Where is Gold Headed?" I think we should all try to keep to the spirit of the thread rather than aggrevate each other. Who knows, maybe we could even help each other!!
> 
> So where is Gold headed gentlemen?  Well it is headed down, no one can deny this no matter how many lagging MA's, and trendlines you draw. There is no point getting angry at each other, the trend is what it is. How much lower? Well probably much lower becasue ATM there is no evidence to show otherwise.
> 
> In the same way the trend has changed now and once again many have missed the boat because they have gotten caught up in the bulltrend and married their positions
> 
> Ohh and Implod, I am not a dreamer you and RS and dreamers for thinking Gold will rise to 2000 or even 3000. My target is very realistic because it's only 200 bucks away.  Sweet dreams.




WP, I agree its not a competition and everyone has their own way of trading, and each can do well quite differently.

Having said its not a competition, you then state as forcefully as possible that gold is going down, no arguments allowed and anyone who thinks differently is a dreamer. 

Interestingly, at $850 you were bearish and irate with anyone who disagreed. Gold promptly rose $80. Now its fallen $50/60, what will it do now? Sorry, its not a given at all it will tank further from here, you can't get upset just because people post opposing viewpoints. I respect your EW analysis, I'm only saying its not infallible and there are other ways of looking at it.

I don't want to keep arguing cos its pointless, everyone has clearly stated their views, we'll wait and see what happens.


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> WP, I agree its not a competition and everyone has their own way of trading, and each can do well quite differently.
> 
> Having said its not a competition, you then state as forcefully as possible that gold is going down, no arguments allowed and anyone who thinks differently is a dreamer.
> 
> Interestingly, at $850 you were bearish and irate with anyone who disagreed. Gold promptly rose $80. Now its fallen $50/60, what will it do now? Sorry, its not a given at all it will tank further from here, you can't get upset just because people post opposing viewpoints. I respect your EW analysis, I'm only saying its not infallible and there are other ways of looking at it.
> 
> I don't want to keep arguing cos its pointless, everyone has clearly stated their views, we'll wait and see what happens.





That's right RS it's no comp. But Gold is going down at present, only stating what I see.

Yes i was bearish at at $850 and before that at $950. Yes Gold had some intervening rallies too, markets don't move in straight lines now do they?? What do you expect me to do, call every single zig zag move on an intraday day chart?? I don't have a crystal ball you know. Just staying on the right side of the major trend is hard enough. The 650 target stated back then is acheivable as we need only another sub $200 to get there. That is one good high momentum move down like we had in May/June 2006. In my eyes,  some of the bluesky targets you  stated earlier are what dreams and hope are made of, not good analysis. 

But if my memory serves me correct you thought I was mad for even thinking of shorting Gold at $950. Back then you were asking me " when will you finally admit you are wrong?"  Well I don't need to just yet, but what about you? When will you finally admit you are wrong and finally decide "enough is enough". Seems to me, you have much more at stake here than me.

Time will tell RS, hey I have nothing to lose,  am short I have stops, and have a back up plan. Incdidentally what is your back up plan??  Hold and Hope??


----------



## barrett

Crikey this thread is like daytime television..._in the '80s_!  Call the price,  I made nearly $1500 on the swings while you guys were arguing!  I think the real problem is Kauri's budgie figured out how to print money... and is relaxing somewhere on a private caribbean beach.. come back kaaaaauriiii!


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> Crikey this thread is like daytime television..._in the '80s_!  Call the price,  I made nearly $1500 on the swings while you guys were arguing!  I think the real problem is Kauri's budgie figured out how to print money... and is relaxing somewhere on a private caribbean beach.. come back kaaaaauriiii!




Lol

I'm also happy to inhabit the lower time frames.

Sheesh!


----------



## barrett

Interesting 888 has come up yet again, capping the rally.. this was in theory going to be an ideal spot to go short.. and yet the volume has been pointing 'up'... confused


----------



## wavepicker

barrett said:


> Interesting 888 has come up yet again, capping the rally.. this was in theory going to be an ideal spot to go short.. and yet the volume has been pointing 'up'... confused




Move down in Gold from the last high looks more corrective and hard to count. EURUSD is definately an uncompleted impulse and will have further to run IMO. If my count is correct(not saying it is), this is a 4th wave of some type we are in and the rally should finish soon. We need to reach the 38.2% level of the 3rd wave move down.  Thereafter market might still continue sideways before heading lower and finding OBVIOUS support at the previous swing low. Cycles Analysis backs that up too. I took a small long position in the euro and just closed it for 55 pips.

Cheers


----------



## explod

Just spottd this and is well worth our consideration:-

<quote>

Dear Jim,

A review of the 1970’s shows a period much like the current time. The background of the period was when inflation was rising along with oil and gold. The dollar was generally declining and politicians were all over the media talking about how inflation would be cured in no time. When this didn’t work they started with statements saying they would make gold sales from government inventories (and they did). They went to the media and said gold was a barbarous relic, speculators are destroying the economy and should be punished, congress and the executive branch are blameless, we have not hurt the economy with our monetary and fiscal policy and many more such witticisms.

Gold went from an average price of $35.94 in 1970 to $120.17 in July 1973; an increase of 233%. 
Then it fell from $120.17 to below $95 by Nov 1973 for a decline of over 20% in 4 months. 
In March 1975, COMEX gold peaked at $187.50 for a rise of over 90% in 17 months. 
In August 1976, COMEX gold bottomed at $101 for a 46% decline in 17 months, during this time gold had moved little for the previous 2 years and nine months. Then it began to move rapidly as US inflation began to be a problem in 1977, 1978 and 1979. 
In October 1978, COMEX gold peaked at $249.40 for a rise of 147% in 26 months. By this time inflation in the developed world was high and rising much like inflation in the developing world is today. 
In November 1978, COMEX gold bottomed at $191.20 for a decline of 24% in one month. Inflation continues to be a problem. 
In January 1980 COMEX gold peaked at $873, an increase of over 350% in 14 months. After gold peaks, inflation begins to moderate. Paul Volcker has taken over at the Federal Reserve and administers some strong anti-inflationary interest rate increases which lead to a recession. He is a strong and steady force for moderation in money supply growth and reduces the public’s inflationary expectations.
In my opinion, we are at the beginning of a period of inflation in the emerging world that may be the equivalent of early 1978 in the developed world. The developing nations are making the same mistakes with price controls which incentivize consumption, export restrictions which incentivize global hoarding, tariffs and many other artificial boundaries which create market dislocations and lead to higher prices.

We can be sure that we will see the old stand bys: government threats of sales from their inventories and restrictions on trading commodities in many parts of the world. None of this will work until they implement higher interest rates and other tight monetary and fiscal policies which will slow economic activity and moderate inflationary expectations. The result will be an end to inflation.

Between now and the time that they implement these policies (I don’t know how long it will take them to get wise) we will see more inflation and much higher gold prices. The primary purchasers of gold will be the newly wealthy citizens of the emerging world.

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com



<end quote>

from Jim Sinclair's web page, today


----------



## explod

This one also from a contributor to Jim's site is looking likely after the bounce overnight.

Not being adamant, anything can happen, just my 2cents


----------



## refined silver

WP I won't keep arguing with you, but when Gold goes to $1000, and misses your targets, I expect you to say, I was stopped out, no big deal.

Yes I've got a lot more riding on it than you, but its not margined, doesn't expire, so I can afford to wait if necessary.

If I was negative on your shorting at 950, it would only have been because you'd been bearish and wrong for the last $300 upward, continually calling tops. For someone who's supposedly made so much on short side, your posts are most bearish at precisiely the wrong times.


----------



## wavepicker

refined silver said:


> WP I won't keep arguing with you, but when Gold goes to $1000, and misses your targets, I expect you to say, I was stopped out, no big deal.
> 
> Yes I've got a lot more riding on it than you, but its not margined, doesn't expire, so I can afford to wait if necessary.
> 
> If I was negative on your shorting at 950, it would only have been because you'd been bearish and wrong for the last $300 upward, continually calling tops. For someone who's supposedly made so much on short side, your posts are most bearish at precisiely the wrong times.




I have had enough conversing with RS, you will have your blinkers on till you are broke.

End Of Discusssion. Don't bother replying as you won't get a response


----------



## >Apocalypto<

This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.

Here's the way I see it.

Myself WP and others are all short term traders. Explod RS you are in it for the long term. so we all have our wires crossed and that's what is leading to the posted rubbish from us all. I personally think this thread is now going down hill.

Since the high when it first broke myself and WP plus other posters have been putting forward a case for lower prices and it has happened as we said it would.  None of us ever said the bull was dead. What me and WP have been posting is short to medium term the trend off the main line was over and it is! Refer to daily chart. Sure the fundamentals are all in tact and suggest the bull will keep going I never has said it won't.

Based on this it's gotten way out of hand we have been attacked and we have attacked. This banter is a waste of time and it is actually damaging to my mental skills to trade well.

I do have a problem with people who cut and pasting reports with no personal explanation form the poster to explain why it's right. Many of u do it and I don't like it. Me or WP have never said our charts are right and nothing else is we are just stating a case for what's happening over the short to medium term.

I think we should all take a few deep breaths explain our time frames in more detail and try to learn from each other. debate is healthy if it's done in the right way. this thread has gotten way to ego driven we all need to settle down and go back to constructive posts about were gold is heading. 

cheers
Joseph


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.

I agree with your post.   There is in fact three time frames.   I have regarded this thread more as a news situation on where gold is heading, hence the bits from Jim Sinclair etc.   Many of you however do your own thing from a technical viewpoint and anything outside of this I can see is rubbish.   Is there some way in which we may be able to have a gold news and general views of where gold is heading and a seperate more technical thread.   

I am happy with the current mix but our persona clashes as you say do put the direction off the topic.

 I am a


----------



## wavepicker

>Apocalypto< said:


> This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.
> 
> Here's the way I see it.
> 
> Myself WP and others are all short term traders. Explod RS you are in it for the long term. so we all have our wires crossed and that's what is leading to the posted rubbish from us all. I personally think this thread is now going down hill.
> 
> Since the high when it first broke myself and WP plus other posters have been putting forward a case for lower prices and it has happened as we said it would.  None of us ever said the bull was dead. What me and WP have been posting is short to medium term the trend off the main line was over and it is! Refer to daily chart. Sure the fundamentals are all in tact and suggest the bull will keep going I never has said it won't.
> 
> Based on this it's gotten way out of hand we have been attacked and we have attacked. This banter is a waste of time and it is actually damaging to my mental skills to trade well.
> 
> I do have a problem with people who cut and pasting reports with no personal explanation form the poster to explain why it's right. Many of u do it and I don't like it. Me or WP have never said our charts are right and nothing else is we are just stating a case for what's happening over the short to medium term.
> 
> I think we should all take a few deep breaths explain our time frames in more detail and try to learn from each other. debate is healthy if it's done in the right way. this thread has gotten way to ego driven we all need to settle down and go back to constructive posts about were gold is heading.
> 
> cheers
> Joseph




Very well said and summed up Joseph, could not agree more. I actually refrained from posting for over a week on this thread because of these reasons. 

As you say, we all have different goals here and trade different timeframes, there is no right or wrong method to trade/invest, everybody has their own unique approach which is specific to their goals. As such there is no point conversing with fundemental long term investors such as rederob, explod, and RS because they have little understanding of what we are all about and we  have little understanding what they about.

Sure I welcome any constructive criticizm about charts/analysis/posts but it's the constant nitpicking that angers me. 

Regards

Wavepicker


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> >Apocalypto< Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.
> 
> I agree with your post.   There is in fact three time frames.   I have regarded this thread more as a news situation on where gold is heading, hence the bits from Jim Sinclair etc.   Many of you however do your own thing from a technical viewpoint and anything outside of this I can see is rubbish.   Is there some way in which we may be able to have a gold news and general views of where gold is heading and a seperate more technical thread.
> 
> I am happy with the current mix but our persona clashes as you say do put the direction off the topic.
> 
> I am a





That's not a bad idea and I am sure the mods can organize it. I will speak to richkid to see what he can arrange. In the meatime, all we have to do simply stop nitpicking each other all the time. If you see a technical post you don't agree with, just move on, the same with myself and Joseph re fundementals. 

I understand things can get a touch emotional around here because money is a touchy subject, especially when some have a life savings or other large sums riding on the direction of the market, but one has to learn to deal with their emotions, because emotional traders/investors will eventually get cut to pieces in the market.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Prepare launch pad??? Wake me up in July/August???


----------



## ithatheekret

*Wake me up in July/August??? *

Now at least someone has made a simple statement that binds with the real truth that the market logic abides by ............... CYCLES .

My bet is somewhere around Sept through to November will see another rebound in the resource sector .

On POG the signs for myself were the drop to the low Kauri pointed out and the $920 area . There were certain factors that brought this about , one being cyclical movement and asset allocation shuffling . You can normally set your clock by the goldies drop off in the lead upto Jan / Feb .

I also agree with the technical views and timeframe projections of those with a long term view , but can only say we must trade what is in front of us , this is where opportunity lies .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mmmmm...... peak gold???



> *AUSTRALIA'S gold industry had its worst quarterly result, in terms of production, for nearly two decades in the three months to the end of March, with output falling 16 per cent.*
> Latest figures from Melbourne-based mining consultant and leading gold industry analyst Surbiton Associates show that gold output in the March quarter was a disappointing 53 tonnes, 10 tonnes less than that of the December quarter.
> That comes despite record modern-day highs for the gold price, which has soared on the back of a slowdown in the US economy as investors move to more traditional safe-haven investments.



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23793498-643,00.html?from=public_rss



> The bigger operations about to start up or already under construction include Higginsville in Western Australia (Avoca Resources), Gwalia in WA (St Barbara), Ballarat in Victoria (Lihir), Wiluna in WA (Apex Minerals), Prominent Hill in South Australia (Oxiana) and Boddington in WA (Newmont/AngloGold).




http://business.smh.com.au/miners-going-for-gold-again-20080601-2kic.html


----------



## refined silver

> =Uncle Festivus;299516]Mmmmm...... peak gold???




Absolutely! SA is dropping Au production so fast its not funny and has power supply issues which won't be solved before 2012/3. China the current biggest producer will run out of reserves very shortly and is not exporting anyway.

This chart's a bit old, but since 2003, there's only been one world class discovery - Aurelian's FDN project. Unfortunately it may take a while before those new discovered ounces (10+ million) will be accessible for production since the Ecuadorian government isn't exactly providing the support necessary to move things forward here. Two large gold deposits in nearby Venezuela also have just been denied production rights which isn't a big help either for future gold supply!

Majors can't replace reserves, other than to buy juniors.

Cash-rich gold miners set their M&A sights lower
http://in.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idINN3034216520080530


----------



## cuttlefish

Gold will go up a bit.
Then it will go down a bit.
Then it will go up a bit.
Then it will go down a bit.
Then it will go up a bit.
Then it will go down a bit.

Tell me I'm wrong.

I've nominated no targets or timeframes.

I suggest that if anyone offers a prediction it should always nominate a target price range (or target movement size) and a target timeframe (or range).


e.g. _"imo will have further to run"_ 

doesn't tell us much - next minute, next hour, next day, next week, how far? how long?

so better would be:

_"imo rally will continue for the next 5 to 10 days bringing the price to a target in the range $X to $Y"_

or 

_"break down from current levels will continue for 3 to 6 weeks bringing us down to levels around the $X or lower" _

or

_"The fundamentals indicate that gold is going to rally strongly over the next few years and could hit levels of $10,000 to $20,000 an oz by the end of 2010"_

Note - all three of the above could be correct at the same time - from here the price might rally for 5 to 10 days but resume an overall medium term downward trend that brings it lower in 3 to 6 weeks time before continuing a longer term uptrend that brings it to new highs over the next couple of years.


If we can stick to timeframes and targets on forward looking views then we won't continue to cross wires so often on the different cycles we operate in. 

It will also allow people to legitimately 'claim' their calls if they have the desire to do so.

And lets stop offering up certainty - there is no certainty in the markets - fundamental or technical.   Use of words like 'definitely' shouldn't be in a trader or investors vocabulary when talking about the future.

thats my  - I like the thread and enjoy both the technical and fundamental views and the views over different timeframes - if we stick to the above it might make things a little clearer for all.


----------



## explod

"The fundamentals indicate that gold is going to rally strongly over the next few years and could hit levels of $10,000 to $20,000 an oz by the end of 2010"  <end quote>


That in fact has been said, time frame and all (a few years is vague), but look back in the thread and it is there.

In my humble opinion the US$ price will hit 12 to 1,300 by October this year with perhaps a dip down (or final shakeout if you like) to 830 between now and August.  I say this based on my Gann cyclical chart and the analysis of a couple of economists I have found close to the mark over the last four years or so.

Will be interesting to see if I may be dreaming.


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> In my humble opinion the US$ price will hit 12 to 1,300 by October this year with perhaps a dip down (or final shakeout if you like) to 830 between now and August.  I say this based on my Gann cyclical chart and the analysis of a couple of economists I have found close to the mark over the last four years or so.
> 
> Will be interesting to see if I may be dreaming.




I have been noticing an annual gold price tipping comp on one of the mining sites I frequent... might have been MineWeb. The average of the poll got it pretty close last (calender) year. From memory this year they are tipping ending marginally above 1,000, I think it was something less than 1,100.

I have little doubt that it will eventually exceed 1,000 again on slowing supply, but I think the G7 and particularly the US... given comments by paulson again in todays press, are pretty determined to balster the USD in the short term. In that enviornment I can't see gold going ballistic in the next few months.

However, once all the credit crunch and recession worries have settled and confidence starts to come back into the wider economy, I think the lack of new gold supply will start to impact on growing demand and be the catalyst to start prices up to new highs. That may start late this year.

I just don't see the POG going through the roof on the strength of a weak USD or safe haven for alternative currency.


----------



## refined silver

Gold's breakdown from $1000, came within a day of the 3/4 point Bernanke rate cut, and new Fed open windows for banks to borrow at. The spin was that the credit crisis was all under control.

With yesterday's S&P rating drops of Lehmans, Merril Lynch and Morgan Stanley, the UK bank in trouble and the mkt down on credit fears again, I wonder if this will be the reversal of the gold's reversal. (For the reverse reasons of course)


----------



## wavepicker

down, down, down she goes, where she ends up, no bull knows.

No recovery here I'm afraid!!


----------



## MRC & Co

wavepicker said:


> down, down, down she goes, where she ends up, no bull knows.
> 
> No recovery here I'm afraid!!




Don't get too excited, already closed nearly half the gap.  Oil presenting a hammer on decent volume on the one hour too.


----------



## Whiskers

The shakeout of the big speculaters in commodities... Oil in particular, I think.

The latest rating downgrades were hardly surprises but happened 'conviently' at a time when the share markets were contemplating kicking on and up. 

Given the US markets have finished well off their lows monday and today, I'm considering that a sign that smart buyers are capitalising on media headlines that are causing uncertainty among some investors sitting on the sidelines or caught up in the convert to cash frenzie.

The bottom line, I suspect is a mad rush to liquidate speculative commodotity portfolios before the bubble burst in readiness to invest back in real (cheap) businesses.

As for the POG it looks to me that it ain't going to go ballistic on weak USD or economy concerns. It's gonna have to wait for real businesses to recover and discover the supply of new gold ain't there to meet increasing demand.


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> (cheap) businesses.




Where??


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> down, down, down she goes, where she ends up, no bull knows.
> 
> No recovery here I'm afraid!!



Well, there was a recovery.
There will be many more.

In essence the Fed fired one of its biggest salvos for the year, suggesting rate cuts were dead for the foreseeable future: And the worst it could do was knock gold down a few percent.

This Fed have unwittingly given gold a price base that will sustain it into the future.  Although there is always a downside risk, within weeks it will be mostly worked through, in readiness for gold's typical price rally in the second half.

wavepicker was right in that I don't know exactly "where she ends up", only that she will.


----------



## wavepicker

MRC & Co said:


> Don't get too excited, already closed nearly half the gap.  Oil presenting a hammer on decent volume on the one hour too.





Cr.p!!   I have every right to be excited because I am short and trade going as I planned. What has been confirmed tonight is that Gold is going lower in the near future before it moves higher again. 3 waves always ubfold agianst the one larger trend, therefore the last low at 845 will be taken out.


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Cr.p!!   I have every right to be excited because I am short and trade going as I planned. What has been confirmed tonight is that Gold is going lower in the near future before it moves higher again. 3 waves always ubfold agianst the one larger trend, therefore the last low at 845 will be taken out.




$845, cripes??, and I can believe that, but you were adamant a week ago about a correction to 6 or 700.    

Of course I would not rule anything out till later in the year.    But your bit above,  "...Gold is going lower..."   and "...always ubfold(sic)..."  and you say others are stubborn, adamant and over sure of themselves.   My comment is not about which way it it going but how you lock it all in.  Markets are not like that.   Tomorrow anything can happen.

And admitting to being excited, no place for that either, trading with emotion is  a road to going broke

Gave you the benefit of the doubt once and I am sorry for that.


----------



## cuttlefish

wavepicker said:


> 3 waves _*always*_ ubfold agianst the one larger trend, therefore the last low at 845 _*will be *_taken out.




Well I've highlighted  in the post above those words that _imho_ no trader or investor should use when making forward looking statements.  There is no certainty in the markets ... of that I am certain.


----------



## Temjin

I'm still patiently waiting for the weekly signals to settle down. Like I said if the POG does decisively break below USD $845, then it would definitely create quite a tremour to every gold bugs out there. But hell, it would also mean more cheap gold/silver for me to buy.

And I agree with cuttlefish, you cannot use "will" when predicting such things. Nothing is ever certain. May is a better word to use.


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> Where??






Now you're putting me on the spot.

For me one has to make a few calculated (guesses) judgements about where things are at. My judgement is that the worst is over for the US economy for the time being, particularly their property market. By that I think they will be able to fudge a recovery in the short term, and I'm getting the impression that domestic property values there have reached a point where they can stabalise or even start increasing a bit as soon as peoples cash situation improves. 

Sure, there are still a few shakey high profile businesses out there, but even in good times less efficient businesses go down or are taken over and reformed by others. 

My judgement is that significant reforms are underway all over the world to reign in the type of preditory lending, poor accountability and dubious trading practises that undermined the world financial systems and peoples confidence in the free markets.

Having established that my judgement extends that the G7 in particular will do whatever it takes to return some stability in the short term which should allow any further debt and or cash flow problems to iron in a more orderly way... effectively meaning that investers will start to regain confidence in the markets and establish a floor value to buy off. Some high profile people and firms are already noted for looking at and making new investment decisions.

Some examples of cheap businesses relative to medium to long term forcasts I think include many core retail businesses, agricultural and energy companies. On the Australian bouse for example there are many miners and relatively new companies floated in the last five years that have established good resources whose development is more hampered by a lack of infrastructure than lack of economic demand for the resources.

I've got a few minnows in particular whose resources are badly undervalued and I think we all know al least a couple of big corp's like the Walmart's and BHP's that have sound business practices and bank balances and have proven to be adaptive to changing market conditions.

The bottom line for the POG I think is the intervention of the likes of the G7 and regulatory changes have shot the wind out of the sails of the alternative currency/safety case and it's future gains will be more on traditional supply and demand issues.


----------



## wavepicker

cuttlefish said:


> Well I've highlighted  in the post above those words that _imho_ no trader or investor should use when making forward looking statements.  There is no certainty in the markets ... of that I am certain.





yep, you are absolutely right cuttel, should have phrased that a bit better. But the 3 wave rally gives us a big clue and most likely IMO based on seeing hundreds of these types patterns we are headed for new lows.

explod, the 6-700 outlook for me has not changed. was quoting the short/medium term above


----------



## MRC & Co

I am getting excited too (despite the criticism of such an emotion), of a break of the longer term downward trendline, as was the case in the smaller wave c of wave B in your corrective pattern.  If this does break, it will most likely happen while cracking that $900 barrier.

Just as I am closely monitoring oil for it's return to form.  

Can't say it will happen, but I know where my $$ will be if it does.

Ballz aren't big enough to short either one at the moment, not with the larger trend still firmly intact.  

Plenty of long-term dogs out there to short.


----------



## wavepicker

MRC & Co said:


> I am getting excited too (despite the criticism of such an emotion), of a break of the longer term downward trendline, as was the case in the smaller wave c of wave B in your corrective pattern.  If this does break, it will most likely happen while cracking that $900 barrier.
> 
> Just as I am closely monitoring oil for it's return to form.
> 
> Can't say it will happen, but I know where my $$ will be if it does.
> 
> Ballz aren't big enough to short either one at the moment, not with the larger trend still firmly intact.
> 
> Plenty of long-term dogs out there to short.






Each to their own, you do what you are happy with. Personally I don't like such trendline analysis and rarely work with them.  Especially since the one you describe only pertains to a smaller degree of trend. Have been caught out way too many times in my early days. Try looking at the bigger picture first and work your way down.

The lines I prefer to work with these days are dynamic and change as cycles expand and contract. 

The EW pattern analysis I posted for me is simplicity and I have found it to be quite consistant for my type of trading. This market has been churning for months now and a change trend has been brewing. 

I think more traders neeed  to learn to move with the ebbs and flows of the market, and not get too emotional and married to their positions. Do this and you are well on your way to becoming consistant which is what it's all about.  I repeat again and again , *Trade what you see not what you hope and expect*. Learn how to recognize "The pattern of the trend"


----------



## wayneL

wavepicker said:


> I think more traders neeed  to learn to move with the ebbs and flows of the market, and not get too emotional and married to their positions. Do this and you are well on your way to becoming consistant which is what it's all about.  I repeat again and again , *Trade what you see not what you hope and expect*.




Amen to that.


----------



## MRC & Co

And if it moves through the trendline, it will be what I see.  Until then, I have plenty of other positions open and many more begging to be opened. 

I do not trade on hope, and never get married to my positions.  But these cliches are starting to sound like a parrot.  I have no idea why you felt the need to say it once more when my post had nothing to do with hope nor being stuck to a position.  Simply stating I do not like to trade against the larger trend often, when there are plenty of charts out there I can short, of which are already heading for the bottom of the ocean.  

I find the break of a trendline, even one which only pertains to a smaller degree of trend, as long as the break is in the direction of the larger trend, quiet consistent when married with a look at the effort (volume and spread) and outcome (close) and strict money management.  I would say, far more than EW, which I find a bit creative for my liking.  

But as you say, each to his own.


----------



## paulhood

Gold will probably be range bound in the short term, between 840-920 with risk to the down side, if the US$ gains. Bernankes comments are new in that the fed does not normally comment on the dollar, they leave that to the treasury. Anyone have any ideas what the fed can do to support the dollar? don't think rate hikes are an option yet. 

Credit crisis is far from over and may require more rate cuts, if that happens gold will go up again, but at the cost of equity markets as we saw early this year.  

Longer term the US$ will revert back to fundamentals, that is massive trade deficit and falling real estate. When this happens hopefully gold will go up again and break $1000 or more. 

www.Kitco.com is useful site to stay informed, but be wary of the bias in the gold commentaries.

Not a big fan of charts as per mail above, historical data is just that


----------



## caribean

815 mid June...maybe....


----------



## ithatheekret

Has the last low been taken out ?????

If not , I would be inclined to presume that we will have some definition at the testing of that area . Break it and cop a dumper , or watch it form a base and commit to a higher low .

Either way it will at least give us an idea of a heading .

The ripples on the pond have only just started , the US now garrisoning a defensive dollar will soon test the bolt holding the gate .

Meanwhile Clueless Inc. will start to succumb to the old affliction known as CRAFT .

In the meantime as the range bound markets try to get sorted , we can take aim at the targets hunted .

I agree with Whiskers in part , there are cheap companies out there , if you can afford to keep them running . But Bernanke going defensive on the dollar will not see the end of the crisis , which is gasping for breath before the halfway point .

The election in the US will more than likely be cast on the economy , the brawl that will errupt now the Dems have their shop tidied up should become interesting as each side dabbles with the truth debates . That time coming should send shivers down Wall Street , but if we hear Hilary starting to sound like an Obama echo ........ hehehe , watch the stampede for cover begin .

The Republicans already know Senor McCain is a loose cannon , that tends to buck party trends , so this ensuing period should be one for the record book .

I can't wait for the mud to start flying , it's just a shame we can't licence it and sell tickets .


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> Has the last low been taken out ?????
> 
> I can't wait for the mud to start flying , it's just a shame we can't licence it and sell tickets .




Get it going

Love to be your agent, and would only charge a 95% fee.


----------



## wavepicker

rederob said:


> Well, there was a recovery.
> There will be many more.
> 
> In essence the Fed fired one of its biggest salvos for the year, suggesting rate cuts were dead for the foreseeable future: And the worst it could do was knock gold down a few percent.
> 
> This Fed have unwittingly given gold a price base that will sustain it into the future.  Although there is always a downside risk, within weeks it will be mostly worked through, in readiness for gold's typical price rally in the second half.
> 
> wavepicker was right in that I don't know exactly "where she ends up", only that she will.





rederob,

you send me a PM some months back telling me why FA works, and why TA doesn't, not too dismilar to RS's posts.
In so far as Gold goes I have a lot faith in my analysis because it has worked well for me. That analysis tells me the USD will be the biggest winner this year. Now that might make you think me a fool, but I couldn't care less.

 FOR ME IT WORKS, AND IT'S CONSISTANT AND MY HIP POCKET PROVES IT

I got one thing to say to you. *we are on different wavelenghs*
FA works for you and TA works for me. I respect your FA knowledge but it really does not interest me, that is why I rarely comment on your analysis.

So let's just leave it at that

All the best with your investments.

Wavepicker


----------



## ithatheekret

explod said:


> Get it going
> 
> Love to be your agent, and would only charge a 95% fee.




Well for 5% , all I'll can afford to say is that I think Bens juggling act was great , but adding tug of war on the greenback during intermission will prove to be a fleeting moment in time ..........

There's only so much a buck can buy . especially when it's already been revalued by a market . So whilst it starts to climb up the cliff looking for a ledge , it could be beneficial to look at what markets policies are being directed at . here at home , wheat is ...... was a target , that one looks in the bag . Oil is on everyones radar , they're struggling to contain that one , so what's left to do ........ raise the trading taxes .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> So let's just leave it at that




Amen to that


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> ...I think Bens juggling act was great , but adding tug of war on the greenback during intermission will prove to be a fleeting moment in time ..........
> 
> .





Well it did make a lower high.    And all donations are siezed upon and multiplied.   The Bondy parachute?   

In the same period, from 2/05, gold has bounced off higher lows.   

At least half the time I am wrong.  Called the house edge.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

For me there are 2 scenarios at play here -
What is the real level of US inflation?
Is this part of a normal 'cycle'?
1 - If inflation was still measured the same way as in the early 80's then a truer level of inflation would be over 10%. Gold then is perhaps 'behind the curve' ie undervalued, still? Gold/???? ratio's are saying this now.

2 - Is this part of a normal cycle to be worked through by the use of the usual financial alchemy mechanisms or is it the real deal period of global economic reckoning? 



> April 2007. GMO Quarterly Newsletter. GMO manages $145 billion. CEO Jeremy Grantham wrote: "The First Truly Global Bubble: From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure, and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time. ... Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. ... The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets ... no similar global event has occurred before."




Gold will most likely be hit with collateral damage initially, but may/should emerge as the one true store of 'value'. Commodities in general will tank, so too China with the obvious negative implications for Australia (as if we need any more).



> March 2006: Forbes. Economist Gary Shilling wrote: "The current housing weakness will develop into a full-scale rout ... It's clearly a bubble and is nationwide ... The house-price collapse will induce a painful recession that will send U.S. stocks into a tailspin ... China will suffer a hard landing ... and weakness in the U.S. and China will spread worldwide."




Bernankes' rhetoric - Talk might be the only thing CHEAPER than the dollar right now.



> Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday warned the dollar's weakness was contributing to U.S. inflation and signaled that the world's most powerful central bank would not welcome a further decline of the greenback on international currency markets.




Boo hoo, all you nasty capitalists - please keep buying my freshly printed IOU nothings . Doomed I tell ya, doomed 

Still in cash, gold, farmland & trading these fabulous swings 

(Getting closer?? )


----------



## Whiskers

wavepicker said:


> In so far as Gold goes I have a lot faith in my analysis because it has worked well for me. That analysis tells me the USD will be the biggest winner this year.




Your still sounding very confident on the USD, wavepicker.

From a TA (weekly and monthly charts) I notice some long term extreme deviations occuring that tend to support my FA view, also that the USD will recover some lost ground. 

In the bigger scheme of things the focus is starting to shift more heavily to the USD and I think there is just too much political will from a number of nations for it not to happen... despite the self interest of large traders and investment funds.

I would expect the USD reallignment to more substantial against the likes of the euro than the AUD, but none the less give us a bit of a lift in the POG in AUD terms. 

I was thinking roughly mid 80's getting into the 4th quarter, based on a reasonable time for the US problems to stabalise and them starting to switch their thinking to raising interest rates again. 

Wavepicker, do you have an estimate of the AUD/USD conversion and indicative time frame from a TA perspective? 

I'll stand behind you and :twak: anyone who tries to shoot you down in flames.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Whiskers said:


> Your still sounding very confident on the USD, wavepicker.
> 
> From a TA (weekly and monthly charts) I notice some long term extreme deviations occuring that tend to support my FA view, also that the USD will recover some lost ground.
> 
> In the bigger scheme of things the focus is starting to shift more heavily to the USD and I think there is just too much political will from a number of nations for it not to happen... despite the self interest of large traders and investment funds.




I assume the gold price bearishness is because of a percieved imminent strength in the $USD? You would then hope that the negative corellation would still be intact. There is a possibility that we can have a rising $USD and a rising gold price, but only one will be sustainable.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> I assume the gold price bearishness is because of a percieved imminent strength in the $USD? You would then hope that the negative corellation would still be intact. There is a possibility that we can have a rising $USD and a rising gold price, but only one will be sustainable.




Yes I would agree with that.

I would think that unless the US pulled a rabbit out of the hat, the longer term fate of the USD is most likely lower. But it is quite conceivable that in the medium term that the supply of gold could dry up faster and the price start rising as you say in parallel with the USD, particularly if central banks sell less reserves. 

Obviously if that occurs and oil goes off the boil a bit more, easing local inflation and production cost worries, it could be a bonanza time for Aus producers in the coming months or year or so.

I was pretty sure the markets were wanting to kick on a bit higher monday our time. The fundamental no's are coming in OK, a bit better than estimates, the same with productivity and lobour costs tonight. I'd say the bit more than (my) expected fallback was just the negative karma about the re-ratings that spooked people for awhile, a dash of 'resentment' that the Fed is signalling the probable end of rate cuts and a dash of super funds manipulation. 

The US market has kicked off in the green tonight and I'd expect to carry on the trend upwards, POG and oil flat to weaker and of course the USD to start being liked a bit again.


----------



## wavepicker

Whiskers said:


> Wavepicker, do you have an estimate of the AUD/USD conversion and indicative time frame from a TA perspective?
> 
> I'll stand behind you and :twak: anyone who tries to shoot you down in flames.





Not yet whiskers. I had posted a hand drawn chart long tern AUDUSD chart on this thread some months back. The picture painted there was that the AUDUSD price action of the last 6 months was an Ending Diagonal which is a mixture of impulsive and corrective waves. Fast moves in the opposite direction can resolve from such patterns. So the conclusion back then was that yes AUDUSD may still have some upside but it would be limited and it's currently in a finishing patern and not a continuation pattern. Mind you, the last leg of that type of pattern may also blowoff slightly to the upside before reversing. 

I have done some other more conclusive cycles work of where I expect it to go, but I ain't gonna post it here because it's my IP, and  what for? Not many interested in TA on this thread anyway. Might do it in another later .


----------



## wavepicker

MRC & Co said:


> And if it moves through the trendline, it will be what I see.  Until then, I have plenty of other positions open and many more begging to be opened.




MRC, not sure I am following your logic in this post and the last one entirely regarding EW and trendline analysis.

If you don't mind, please post a chart explaining your analysis and the reasons why you think Gold may traverse this probable path. I and others here would be very interested to see you analysis.


----------



## ithatheekret

wavepicker said:


> Not many interested in TA on this thread anyway. Might do it in another later .





Are too mate .....

I 'm waiting for an retest of the 872/3 area if it has the legs , might have seen it , but a little unconvincingly , under that is 851 , that's a nasty spot for a volatile swing . So I'll look and see if 872's can be tackled or whether the ball's been picked up . Below 851 I have 792 , horrid stuff , but it could happen . Then we have to consider whether it would sit there in a cycle range bound ,  but that is all presumption of where it could go . 

What is missing are the drivers that could move it there . At present all I see is everyone gearing up for hyperinflation and a lot of rhetoric .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Talking about IOU's, they can't hide the real facts, as much as they would like to.


----------



## MRC & Co

wavepicker said:


> MRC, not sure I am following your logic in this post and the last one entirely regarding EW and trendline analysis.
> 
> If you don't mind, please post a chart explaining your analysis and the reasons why you think Gold may traverse this probable path. I and others here would be very interested to see you analysis.




I think gold may traverse this trendline based on fundamentals, global macro, whatever you may enjoy calling it.  Once it does, I can only then see what happens and post a chart.  Until then, my eyes are elsewhere as are my positions.  

Breaking of a trendline following a longer-term upward move, preferably with supporting volume, is that hard to follow?  Say gold moves back up through that trendline I pointed out above, on higher upward volume, very very simple.  Not saying it will mean a restart of the gold bull, or that I have more than a 50/50 chance of being correct, but if I am, it will yeild a good swing, just as the last little gold run did, which I also pointed out above, referring too your own chart.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Not saying it will mean a restart of the gold bull, .






The gold bull is still firmly intact, so dont' worry on that count

How about a french curve on the 10 year and you can see where we are going.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yes, agree explod, I am still very bulllish on gold, both fundamentally and technically (as you say, larger trend is still up).  I just need technical evidence an upswing may be about to occur before I will jump back on and to me, that is simply an upward break of a short-term downward tendline _in this instance. _ 

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

MRC & Co said:


> I think gold may traverse this trendline based on fundamentals, global macro, whatever you may enjoy calling it.  Once it does, I can only then see what happens and post a chart.  Until then, my eyes are elsewhere as are my positions.
> 
> Breaking of a trendline following a longer-term upward move, preferably with supporting volume, is that hard to follow?  Say gold moves back up through that trendline I pointed out above, on higher upward volume, very very simple.  Not saying it will mean a restart of the gold bull, or that I have more than a 50/50 chance of being correct, but if I am, it will yeild a good swing, just as the last little gold run did, which I also pointed out above, referring too your own chart.




No, not hard to follow at all, but displayed graphically much easier to follow what you mean. I understand your logic now, but this is where something like EW analysis can be more helpful IMO than a break of a primitive  trendline that ends up being another false break as in the last upwsing. Why?

Because most of the pundits thought the last upswing was the end of the correction except some(in this case mainly those following EW the same way I did) and stood their bearish stance.  Using EW it was possible to come to the conclusion that the last upsing was a high probability suckers move that would eventually be fully retraced. Sure you can trade your upwing MRC, but it is a very poor strategy because the one larger trend is down at present NOT up. It's a game of nimble entries and exits. Once again trade what you see. Is that hard, why fight the trend?

You might think EW is a bit creative, I can assure you this is not the case at all. EW is one of the most objective means at looking at the pattern of trend at the market. There are quite a few rules,guidelines to help you prove/dipsrove the market analysis as the action unfolds. In the end chart reading in large is about patterns and pattern analysis. Anyone can learn it, it's a question of putting in the time necessary to study these patterns in detail and learning to take trades around them. For some that can be 2-4 years, it takes a while but worth it IMO.

Trendlines need to be dynamic in nature to be of help. Especially in blowoff and capitulation type moves whereby we can draw 3-4 ascending or descending trendlines depending on bullish or bearish market. That way one can gauge the rate of change of price and thus momentum relative to the changing slope of the trendline. The last trendline( showing where price almost goes vertical) can help one more than any other trendline analysis to help determine a possible or temporary change in trend.

Yes, the long term(secular) trend of Gold is up. But the near term trend of precious metals and foreign currencies as well as the broader stock market is down. Gold shows absolutely no evidence that this current downturn is over technically to those that keep jumping in every rally. I think one will be able to jump back on at lower prices than current levels and I am hanging out for that once my short is exited.


----------



## wavepicker

ithatheekret said:


> Are too mate .....
> 
> I 'm waiting for an retest of the 872/3 area if it has the legs , might have seen it , but a little unconvincingly , under that is 851 , that's a nasty spot for a volatile swing . So I'll look and see if 872's can be tackled or whether the ball's been picked up . Below 851 I have 792 , horrid stuff , but it could happen . Then we have to consider whether it would sit there in a cycle range bound ,  but that is all presumption of where it could go .
> 
> What is missing are the drivers that could move it there . At present all I see is everyone gearing up for hyperinflation and a lot of rhetoric .




I understand your point ithatheekret re the drivers to make it move. I must say that I don't bother looking any more for reasons that might propogate an instruments movement because I have had a plain terrible track record after attempting to do so in the past.

Having said that I find it just plain amazing sometimes when the technicals are hinting at the possibility of a certain move but there is just no fundemental logic behind it. Sometimes this rationale has even persuaded me not to take certain trades in the past, only to have the market end up moving just as the technical were hinting after a snap announcement which coincided with the timing of the technicals.

I think one has to look to their strengths, and have complete faith in them and build contingencies around their trading plan as things ofcourse do go wrong. My strengths are certainly not in FA, probably never will be. For others it's the other way around, and yet for a select few they are gifted enough to exploit the best of both worlds in their trades.

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> The gold bull is still firmly intact, so dont' worry on that count
> 
> How about a french curve on the 10 year and you can see where we are going.




Don't agree with your thoughts on that picture. That shows to a price action that is in a long up move. but that things are changing it's has as much chance continuing as it does doing down from that chart. You purely assuming it will go up. Trends change. There is no support carved out on that chart so I think it's very hard to say yes it's going to continue right now.


----------



## barrett

Uncle Festivus posted a wedge on the weekend which I have as the dominant feature on my chart at the moment.. the support could be breaking here, but...... the break would absolutely have to be confirmed on the daily close..

I've been on the short side tonight& expecting to go short again, suspect downtrend could continue to next support in low 960s tonight.  

As I write the price is in a holding pattern that should continue until 10:30pm Australian eastern time when there will be a speech/press conference from the ECB with the potential to shake things up one way or the other..


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Gold short term daily chart.

I am still bearish. 

I still see a low target to the below trend line at 730 as a target but a thrust into the 600's is not out of the question.

minor up angle on the chart broken the next target is the low. I believe we will still see bargin buyer bulls continuing to come in when it  hits a low or makes a new low. I think they will continue to get sold down as they have been. PA has still to hit a 45 degree angle down that shows price and time harmony. it could also find buyers and keep chewing up time froming a range with little ground found on both sides. I am leaning to the low being broken and a move down to the lower 700's this won't happen in a day to a week this will take time. time is need to break the confidence of the mid holders in the trend. 

so off my chart we are off to the low, if broken with a rally to the low as a new resistance will confirm a push down to 800 then see were we go from there.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> Uncle Festivus posted a wedge on the weekend which I have as the dominant feature on my chart at the moment.. the support could be breaking here, but...... the break would absolutely have to be confirmed on the daily close..
> 
> I've been on the short side tonight& expecting to go short again, suspect downtrend could continue to next support in low 960s tonight.
> 
> As I write the price is in a holding pattern that should continue until 10:30pm Australian eastern time when there will be a speech/press conference from the ECB with the potential to shake things up one way or the other..




Whether that changes to a descending triangle with $850 as support is now the short term question. FWIW, for tonight I have a discretionary long trade from $870 (from the waterfall @ 6pm & hourly candles), now stopped for break even. It still won't look solid for me for several weeks yet?


----------



## wavepicker

>Apocalypto< said:


> Gold short term daily chart.
> 
> I am still bearish.
> 
> I still see a low target to the below trend line at 730 as a target but a thrust into the 600's is not out of the question.
> 
> minor up angle on the chart broken the next target is the low. I believe we will still see bargin buyer bulls continuing to come in when it  hits a low or makes a new low. I think they will continue to get sold down as they have been. PA has still to hit a 45 degree angle down that shows price and time harmony. it could also find buyers and keep chewing up time froming a range with little ground found on both sides. I am leaning to the low being broken and a move down to the lower 700's this won't happen in a day to a week this will take time. time is need to break the confidence of the mid holders in the trend.
> 
> so off my chart we are off to the low, if broken with a rally to the low as a new resistance will confirm a push down to 800 then see were we go from there.





Great trendline analysis Apocolypto. Describes the 3 ascending trendlines I mentioned very well. Totally agree with your chart! Some months back I mentioned we had a good case for a "mirror image foldback"  correction of the last leg up from the consolidation both in terms of price and time. So far so good.


----------



## MRC & Co

wavepicker said:


> Because most of the pundits thought the last upswing was the end of the correction except some(in this case mainly those following EW the same way I did) and stood their bearish stance.
> 
> Sure you can trade your upwing MRC, but it is a very poor strategy
> 
> because the one larger trend is down at present NOT up.
> 
> Yes, the long term(secular) trend of Gold is up. But the near term trend of precious metals is down.




A $40 swing in gold is quiet good in my book over the course of days, don't know about you?  You stood on the sidelines while I took a swing.  No problem if that's what your EW told you.  You can keep catching the shorts, but it is not my strategy.  Like I said, I could short plenty of dog stocks instead.  

Trading an upswing in this manner is a poor strategy, ok.  Works fine for me and for multiple others I know who have been trading for many more years than yourself and do so as their main source of income.  Sometimes it is a break of a simple trendline, other times it is a break of a trendline relating to a pattern, but always in the direction of the larger trend.  Check out CCOI (volume was decreasing on it's little move upwards just before and then increasing on the slight move downwards before the break) for a short pattern, or ENER which is forming a symmetrical triangle, well more like a tight flag on falling volume, or how about SOHU which broke out of an ascending triangle yesterday.  Of course, 2 of these trendline patterns have only just occured, for now are in my favour, could of course turn, while 1 is still in the making but by the looks of it, will break one way soon, and I will only trade a long if it breaks to the upside.  Cannot claim spotting all these charts myself, and thanks to those who pointed some of them out to me, you know who you are (these are just a very small portion of the examples).  

Last two paragraphs?  Huh?  So the larger trend is down, but the long term (secular) trend is up, but in the near term, the trend is down........

I don't like EW, you do.  I have nothing against it and if you can make it work for you, excellent, I have just never gravitated towards it, and since I am well in the green, have not felt the need to try something else.  You appear to be looking for larger trends, whereas I am looking for high frequency, short timeframe pattern/trendline break swings, which I feel suits this kind of market environment.  However, it has been so choppy lately I'm thinking pivot fades may be more appropriate


----------



## refined silver

As expected, last night the USD hit its 12 mth downtrend line from the underneath and bounced hard downward. This could be the end of the 2 month half hearted USD rally. Meanwhile the Euro did the opposite and bounced hard upwards from support. 

If this is the case, gold will very soon have the wind at its back.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

refined silver said:


> As expected, last night the USD hit its 12 mth downtrend line from the underneath and bounced hard downward. This could be the end of the 2 month half hearted USD rally. Meanwhile the Euro did the opposite and bounced hard upwards from support.
> 
> If this is the case, gold will very soon have the wind at its back.




After viewing the USD daily chart, some thoughts on it.

sure the usd has hit the second shorter down angle and fell. which has also created a double top. on the other hand it's also forming a continuation pattern that could lead to more upside. I am not debating it's in a down trend not at all. the main line is still a fair distance away.

Based of the chart right now there are two possible situations playing out. time is need to confirm the direction.

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

>Apocalypto< said:


> Based of the chart right now there are two possible situations playing out. time is need to confirm the direction.
> 
> Cheers




True.


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> As expected, last night the USD hit its 12 mth downtrend line from the underneath and bounced hard downward. This could be the end of the 2 month half hearted USD rally. Meanwhile the Euro did the opposite and bounced hard upwards from support.
> 
> If this is the case, gold will very soon have the wind at its back.





Of significance also, silver had a considerable rise against the g/p sideways.  The HUI rose out of proportion to the g/p also.

These have been good indicators in the past of strong up moves.

We will await with interest.


----------



## barrett

It looks as if a diamond bottom formed during the speech, with high volume supporting the upmove within the formation.  Because it then broke out to the upside, it would be very unusual for the formation to then fail.  There has also been an upwards breakout out of a downtrend of sorts..

The case for a bullish whole-of-next-week still needs an 'up' close on the US market tonight to confirm yesterday's hammer.

spot gold, hourly


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> It looks as if a diamond bottom formed during the speech, with high volume supporting the upmove within the formation.  Because it then broke out to the upside, it would be very unusual for the formation to then fail.  There has also been an upwards breakout out of a downtrend of sorts..
> 
> The case for a bullish whole-of-next-week still needs an 'up' close on the US market tonight to confirm yesterday's hammer.
> 
> spot gold, hourly




Yep, but the most telling indicator is the US$ index, which since its fall in march below 73.7 it has now after the last few days failed on six attempts to breach this resistance.    It is now looking like a long pennant which must break one way or the other soon.   

The dollar and gold have since 2001 moved in opposing directions. 

But that gold will rise is not my assertion.   The observations are only observations.


----------



## barrett

I am heavily long at 880 will buy more on a pullback


----------



## ithatheekret

The 860 drop was brief , are we game enough to call it supportive ?

Whatever ammo , cue card Ben has left in his cap gun , could be spent easily in the next few weeks , but I certainly didn't expect that sly old French fox to trump Bens ordinance list , neither did Ben I would imagine , bet he never thought he see a French cannon blazing away at him ..... strewth .

But then he never expected China to be hit by a mega quake , which will take an awful lot of resources in repairs , add food costs to it ....... on a global scale and whammo inflation morfs into a monster .

I wonder if he's looking back at the Bear Sterns bailout in hindsight ..... ouch .
Maybe that's why he's making out like he's the Treasury head instead of the Fed . , then again Hank is rather silent lately , there's always a good side to everything .

I cracked up when I saw POG sally back above 872 on the London close , had me worried a little ....... only because I thought traders had taken in Bens words seriously . The only thing they should seriously do , is launch him like a sputnik a.s.a.p.

Welcome to the shredder queue Ben , now get on the end of the line , because the inflation show is about to start and it's fully booked for months in advance . He should know this though , he pencilled the bookings in .


----------



## barrett

closing @881 on the persistent selling, will buy back in if a bottom is formed


----------



## barrett

ithatheekret said:


> Welcome to the shredder queue Ben , now get on the end of the line , because the inflation show is about to start and it's fully booked for months in advance . He should know this though , he pencilled the bookings in .




exactly.. the show is about to begin and no-one seems to know it... and what happened to gold as an inflation hedge?  The public are uninterested so long as the price is going down or sideways..

Support... UF's wedgy that's what I'm looking at.. sorry UF
Should really be waiting for an up candle tonight.. I'm just impatient

wedge in red, sorry about all the spaghetti
the curvy red line coming up underneath is the 300dma that supported the gold bull since '01


----------



## rederob

barrett

That red snake seems to be forgotten by the bears who hanker for sub $700 gold.
Not only is gold well supported technically, the fundamentals underpinning it are much stronger than they have been for years:
A dollar hedge
An inflation hedge
A tangible asset
A friend of oil.

As an infrequent "buyer" of equities, I won't be dabbling in gold stocks for a while as my view is that the US market will falter further and liquidate positions to free up more cash over the next quarter.
I believe gold at sub$800 is a distinct possibility, and if were to be at that price come September, I shall add more Lihir, which I consider the best long term value of the local goldies.


----------



## barrett

rederob said:


> barrett
> 
> That red snake seems to be forgotten by the bears who hanker for sub $700 gold.
> Not only is gold well supported technically, the fundamentals underpinning it are much stronger than they have been for years:
> A dollar hedge
> An inflation hedge
> A tangible asset
> A friend of oil.
> 
> As an infrequent "buyer" of equities, I won't be dabbling in gold stocks for a while as my view is that the US market will falter further and liquidate positions to free up more cash over the next quarter.
> I believe gold at sub$800 is a distinct possibility, and if were to be at that price come September, I shall add more Lihir, which I consider the best long term value of the local goldies.




I wouldn't mind stocking up at <$700... but if the 300DMA is reached I'll be filling the truck for better or worse.  
  The fundamentals.. good enough for me to convert my entire superannuation into bullion.. sounds crazy but so is the gold price - crazily low from a fundamental point of view.  

I'm with you on the equities, and Lihir.  Will buy juniors selectively as takeover targets, the development risks and costs for go-it-alone outfits seem just too high especially costs in the domestic deposits.


----------



## explod

On my hand written/drawn gold chart that is now mostly round my office wall I notice that the hammers (as we had overnight) when in the shadow of a previous down candle the tail usually points the direction of the next move.

On that basis no one should get excited because the move tonight may be down.

A good bug is cold blooded;       I think.   Or is that because they beat me  to a pulp.


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> On my hand written/drawn gold chart that is now mostly round my office wall I notice that the hammers (as we had overnight) when in the shadow of a previous down candle the tail usually points the direction of the next move.



Hi Explod, I guess we're looking at the same data (daily candles) but I'm actually tending to see the reverse, ie long lower-tailed daily hammers like yesterday's mostly pointing the way up.. only time will tell.  
  I just have bad memories of several major bottoms late last year when these daily hammers occurred under major trendlines and I falsely called a breakout nearly every time.. and those usually turned out to be the bottoms as RS has pointed out.

The triangle bottom seems to fit in at the bottom of a potential W5... abc only rough targets of course and red wedge same as in last chart, cheers


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> Yep, but the most telling indicator is the US$ index, which since its fall in march below 73.7 it has now after the last few days failed on six attempts to breach this resistance.    It is now looking like a long pennant which must break one way or the other soon.




I see what you mean Explod, this is more a dollar thing than a gold thing...
Will be interesting to see what happens at the top of this wedge..


----------



## Sean K

barrett said:


> closing @881 on the persistent selling, will buy back in if a bottom is formed



Golly, hoped you jumped back in barret. Wouldn't have wanted to be short term short right now. Golly x 2. 

Mid to long term is the question I suppose. Does Oil/USD/Geopolitics conspire for the next leg up, or do they conspire to send it further down?

Or, perhaps the events and fundamentals don't matter? 

Well done to anyone seeing a short leg up anyway.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Or, perhaps the events and fundamentals don't matter?




Depends on who's fundamentals you believe, what I know to be TRUE works  for me.

It is all about money Sam and gold is a currency with value.   I know that the US dollar has no value anymore so it is a no brainer for me.

I notice that this thread comes under commodities which is missleading when it is so important to understand that there is a clear distiction.

It is the foundation stone of financials going back 5,000 years.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Or, perhaps the events and fundamentals don't matter?




I think the fundamentals matter more now than at any other time. Perhaps it's the technicals that are becoming harder to interpret because we are faced with a coming series of events that have no precedence in living memory, not that I was around in 1929 . 

We need the last disconnection from oil to set the base for the golden Powerball to drop . 

Still, a bit premature to get excited yet as the funds whipsaw will move hard asset prices around violently until the best hard asset is left standing alone and at record highs?

Nearly time?


----------



## cuttlefish

Well this is certainly getting interesting.  All looks very positive for the gold price over the medium term (i.e. next few months) imo though of course I'd expect short term volatility in gold, oil, USD and the Dow will be the order of the day as the varying forces compete for control.  We might be about to see the beginning of the end of the USD which means the potential for all hell to break loose with both oil and gold prices.  

Unfortunately I'm only in gold stocks and energy (oil and coal) stocks and don't hold physical gold or futures, so I expect these stocks will suffer quite a bit with the exodus to cash in the short term on the Dow moves.

Heavy falls in our local markets could see some very good bargains appear in the junior oil and gold producer end of the market.  A physical gold holding is looking like a good idea to me at the moment though as well - mayber its time.


----------



## MRC & Co

cuttlefish said:


> Unfortunately I'm only in gold stocks and energy (oil and coal) stocks and don't hold physical gold or futures, so I expect these stocks will suffer quite a bit with the exodus to cash in the short term on the Dow moves.




Exactly why I have moved mainly towards futures for gold and oil plays.  Stuck in a catch 22 otherwise.   

On another note, I hope nobody fell asleep on their shorts, a 3am stary eyed surprise wouldn't have been too enjoyable!


----------



## Trembling Hand

These futures contracts are getting so big (oil, gold etc) I'm not sure how the average punter can incorporate them in their holdings.


----------



## cuttlefish

I've never traded futures but I thought you only needed to lodge about $10k margin to trade an oil contract for example.

I'm still wary of counterparty risk in the futures and other derivatives markets in the case of a market meltdown.  At least with stock purchases you theoretically have secure title once settlement has occurred and thus no dependency on the financial health of the other players, the brokers or the exchange.  With futures I don't believe that is the case - the failure of a major player could have a domino effect.


----------



## cuttlefish

Thats not to say I wouldn't consider using them as a subset of an overall portfolio - I just couldn't see them becoming the main game.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> I've never traded futures but I thought you only needed to lodge about $10k margin to trade an oil contract for example.




*Margin means nothing!!! Never has, never should.* Its the size of the move that I am talking about. RISK, RISK, RISK. Which at 50 oz Gold mini contract being the smallest contract for gold and 500 barrels for the mini oil contract how can anyone with less than $250,000 account trade them long term. The move last night in oil mini was worth $5375. If you are a long term holder how can you possibly manage probable risk with these overnight with a small account? 



cuttlefish said:


> I'm still wary of counterparty risk in the futures and other derivatives markets in the case of a market meltdown.  At least with stock purchases you theoretically have secure title once settlement has occurred and thus no dependency on the financial health of the other players, the brokers or the exchange.  With futures I don't believe that is the case - the failure of a major player could have a domino effect.




That is a statement in Bias not fact. 
Does the ASX guarantee your company? Futures exchanges guarantee your futures. 
Or does the ASX Guarantee that the financial info you base you investment decisions on that company directors feed you is 100% truthful. 
How many companies go broke each year on the ASX. Stacks. 
How many Futures go broke?? None!!

I would say stocks have much larger risk from not only the other side but the actual product (companies)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> That is a statement in Bias not fact.
> Does the ASX guarantee your company? Futures exchanges guarantee your futures.
> Or does the ASX Guarantee that the financial info you base you investment decisions on that company directors feed you is 100% truthful.
> How many companies go broke each year on the ASX. Stacks.
> How many Futures go broke?? None!!
> 
> I would say stocks have much larger risk from not only the other side but the actual product (companies)




Great Post TH.

So true, that's fantastic!


----------



## wayneL

>Apocalypto< said:


> Great Post TH.
> 
> So true, that's fantastic!



Yes. There is an unreasonable fear of futures.

But I think this part of the quote is more important and highlights why:



Trembling Hand said:


> *Margin means nothing!!! Never has, never should.* Its the size of the move that I am talking about. RISK, RISK, RISK. Which at 50 oz Gold mini contract being the smallest contract for gold and 500 barrels for the mini oil contract how can anyone with less than $250,000 account trade them long term. The move last night in oil mini was worth $5375. If you are a long term holder how can you possibly manage probable risk with these overnight with a small account?




Considering the face value of the contract, ratrher than margin, ameliorates that fear, providing the trader knows about money management.
Cheers


----------



## IFocus

cuttlefish said:


> I've never traded futures but I thought you only needed to lodge about $10k margin to trade an oil contract for example.
> 
> I'm still wary of counterparty risk in the futures and other derivatives markets in the case of a market meltdown.  At least with stock purchases you theoretically have secure title once settlement has occurred and thus no dependency on the financial health of the other players, the brokers or the exchange.  With futures I don't believe that is the case - the failure of a major player could have a domino effect.




Cuttlefish if you are uncomfortable with futures there are plenty of ETF's listed in the US with high liquidity a summary list below from Leavitt Brothers 

Look up USO follows the oil price there have been some great setups to go long


http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001xuB3RZh5...Yes8UUeYWarlRoTYROXSdwIe7U7lsFzuaSHOqqnf6LxZQ


----------



## golfmos123

Please excuse my ignorance, but with oil spiking up strongly, are we expecting POG to rise, or oil to fall having overshot???

If a POG rise is the concensus, then do people expect the usual gold stocks to be spiking this coming week??  ie NCM, LGL, OXR and others......


----------



## barrett

Hi Kennas I did jump back in late Friday for a scalp, what a night.. still long, I would have done better just to hold that original position though. It looks like fairly strong horizontal resistance around 904, would buy more on a break through there, for a move to resistance at 111 and 114?  Then looking for ST target at the top of the wedge, 920, at this stage..
Goldmos, better wait for gold/oil action tonight.. 
Huge call from Cuttlefish, bullish for the next couple of months!
Last Thursday's trendline reversals in gold and silver do look bullish to me, for today and tomorrow at least, I think...


----------



## RobinHood

> RISK, RISK, RISK. Which at 50 oz Gold mini contract being the smallest contract for gold



...

CBOT offers 33.2 oz. 10c a tick per oz. If your trading on short-term basis with very tight stops this is solid (for the adventurous bunch with $20k or so).


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> *Margin means nothing!!! Never has, never should.* Its the size of the move that I am talking about. RISK, RISK, RISK. Which at 50 oz Gold mini contract being the smallest contract for gold and 500 barrels for the mini oil contract how can anyone with less than $250,000 account trade them long term. The move last night in oil mini was worth $5375. If you are a long term holder how can you possibly manage probable risk with these overnight with a small account?




Ok I see what you are saying and agree with it.  If working on 2% capital risk on a trade then you are correct that an account would need to be $250k to be able to risk a $5000 overnight move.   And $250k is probably a little larger than the typical 'punters' trading account.






> That is a statement in Bias not fact.
> Does the ASX guarantee your company? Futures exchanges guarantee your futures.
> Or does the ASX Guarantee that the financial info you base you investment decisions on that company directors feed you is 100% truthful.
> How many companies go broke each year on the ASX. Stacks.
> How many Futures go broke?? None!!
> 
> I would say stocks have much larger risk from not only the other side but the actual product (companies)




I understand your point, I guess they are different kinds of risks.  I see counterparty risk with all derivatives because they are not a direct holding in a commodity or a company, but a contract between two trading parties.  But of course this is just one type of risk and all investment classes have various kinds of risk associated with them.


----------



## Trembling Hand

RobinHood said:


> ...
> 
> CBOT offers 33.2 oz. 10c a tick per oz. If your trading on short-term basis with very tight stops this is solid (for the adventurous bunch with $20k or so).




LOL. I always thought that was 50 oz . But still with $25 to $30 moves possible in just one day you would still need a BIG account to manage theses things on a long term basis. Short term no prob.



cuttlefish said:


> I understand your point, I guess they are different kinds of risks.  I see counterparty risk with all derivatives because they are not a direct holding in a commodity or a company, but a contract between two trading parties.  But of course this is just one type of risk and all investment classes have various kinds of risk associated with them.




Actual they are not between two parties. OTC derivatives are just that and as we have all seen are explosive. BUT you shouldn't be putting exchange listed futures anywhere near OTC. Exchange listed ARE guaranteed by the exchange AND manged with margin by the brokers. there is actually 5 parties involved.
2 traders, 2 brokers with audited live & daily mark to liquid market capital requirements and an insured exchange.


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> BUT you shouldn't be putting exchange listed futures anywhere near OTC. Exchange listed ARE guaranteed by the exchange AND manged with margin by the brokers. there is actually 5 parties involved.
> 2 traders, 2 brokers with audited live & daily mark to liquid market capital requirements and an insured exchange.




Thanks for the extra info.  I can see where you're coming from and accept the clarification on distinguishing between OTC derivatives and listed futures. I don't dispute that its a well regulated market, and the mark to market margin requirement does go some way to mitigating the risk. But an extreme move in oil, gold or the USD could still blow all of that risk mitigation away imo.  

The scenario I describe is arguably highly unlikely but it is not impossible, particularly if you have a very negative view on the ultimate direction of the USD.


----------



## explod

Sorry, but things are so bad now that I do not want to say anything anymore.  Just buy all the gold bits you can get your hands on and pray that the multinationals  only  believe in the crap of now.   And they seem to.


----------



## josjes

As a long termer (1-3 yr holder), I loaded up physical Gold (buy the dip) since last April at 868, 880, and today 902 . 
Gold TA always looks worst at the bottom, but it almost always surprise on the upside. Just keep it simple TA wise, 65 week MA has never been broken since the bull run 2001, it is now sitting at 786. In two months time it will be sitting at $840-850. IMO unlikely to drop trhu 700 let alone 600 as some members predicted in this forum.  

With reports of the biggest jobless increase in over two decades, the largest housing bust since the Great Depression, Contagion spreading across the banking sector, KBX (Banking Index) broke through 5 year support level to the 2003 March level, Bernanke would not dare to increase rates as the severely understated economic contraction will intensify and the downward sliding economic snowball, gathering momentum, will likely burst into a banking/financial system collapse. 

Helicopter Ben's recent "strong US dollar" talk is just that -- "talk", so don't expect any change from current policy.


----------



## barrett

Whoops.. bounced off 0.61 "C" target at 909 in last EW chart, now 2-day uptrend on the hourly looks like being broken.. I'm out of the market, will look to buy again in the next 24-48hrs, still bullish for the week.  C could rather be the top of a new wave 1.... will wait for things to turn positive again to re-enter


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> Whoops.. bounced off 0.61 "C" target at 909 in last EW chart, now 2-day uptrend on the hourly looks like being broken.. I'm out of the market, will look to buy again in the next 24-48hrs, still bullish for the week.  C could rather be the top of a new wave 1.... will wait for things to turn positive again to re-enter




Wonderfull to just have to give only opinion.  Go back over the thread and you will find, gold is goinig to US$ 50,000 PLUS per ounce and that is conservative IMHO.


----------



## champion

cuttlefish said:


> Well this is certainly getting interesting.  All looks very positive for the gold price over the medium term (i.e. next few months) imo though of course I'd expect short term volatility in gold, oil, USD and the Dow will be the order of the day as the varying forces compete for control.  We might be about to see the beginning of the end of the USD which means the potential for all hell to break loose with both oil and gold prices.
> 
> Unfortunately I'm only in gold stocks and energy (oil and coal) stocks and don't hold physical gold or futures, so I expect these stocks will suffer quite a bit with the exodus to cash in the short term on the Dow moves.
> 
> Heavy falls in our local markets could see some very good bargains appear in the junior oil and gold producer end of the market.  A physical gold holding is looking like a good idea to me at the moment though as well - mayber its time.




Like Cuttlefiish,I hold gold & energy stocks & understand that they may fall heavily with the DOW downward shifts short term, but as the POG moves upwards ie. towards $1200-1400  surely these stocks could magnify the POG's earning capacity as opposed to physical gold.I understand much more risky but possibly a money making factory. Am I on the wrong track?


----------



## MRC & Co

barrett said:


> I'm out of the market, will look to buy again




Same, I only had one contract open, but exited a little while ago.  

Is forming a bit of a tail on the hourly, will wait for a break of around the 910 level and look for momentum before I will go long.  

Looks like we may just get more chop tonight, getting used to that lately!


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> Wonderfull to just have to give only opinion.  Go back over the thread and you will find, gold is goinig to US$ 50,000 PLUS per ounce and that is conservative IMHO.




I agree with the LT predictions you posted the other day Explod... even $50,000/oz...  just sweeping up a few crumbs along the way

As always over 100% of my net worth remains invested in precious metals(slightly leveraged) but most of my posts only relate to the short term trading.  
In my last post I just meant 865-909 could be a wave 1..  If so it would be positive for the next 1-2 weeks.


----------



## barrett

MRC & Co said:


> Same, I only had one contract open, but exited a little while ago.
> 
> Is forming a bit of a tail on the hourly, will wait for a break of around the 910 level and look for momentum before I will go long.
> 
> Looks like we may just get more chop tonight, getting used to that lately!




Yeah we're probably due for some choppy..... the 1 min EurUsd looks  like the chart's weakening a bit along with the gold,  both probably need a rest.  Could go to 887? That's 50% ret and also a bit of a horizontal support line going back a bit further than this chart too... 
spot gold hourly


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Short from yesterday afternoon and added a little more today.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Short from yesterday afternoon and added a little more today.




most profits taken rest to BE


----------



## barrett

What a ride, $40 in about 36 hours!  If the daily close is below 880 tonight it would mean a break of the wedge support, which would probably have bearish implications for a few weeks... would be looking towards the 300DMA(65WMA) if that's the case.

That was nice trading Apocalypto, were you looking at a particular signal, or just trading your medium term bearish outlook?

I only have access to live currency cross charts, not the live US dollar index.. I'm very curious whether the pennant in the index that Explod mentioned has been broken to the upside.. and same for its downtrend line that's been discussed


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> I'm very curious whether the pennant in the index that Explod mentioned has been broken to the upside.. and same for its downtrend line that's been discussed





The pennant has been breached to the upside by 00.003.   There is some resistance at this point so the next 24yours will be of interest now.    The PPT do seem to makes considerabe efforts at these technical points so we could see gold go down to $US840    I do think a lot of buying will come in at this point from theM/E and South East Asia.


----------



## Trembling Hand

slip sliding away!!

The PPT/Manipulators/Lairs/Cheats/table of 8 controlling gentleman/whatever you wanna call them are trying to feed the Gold/Silver/Commodity Bugs the Cucumber Rumba. Ouch!!

Will be a mountain of stops to clean out $15 bucks lower.


----------



## Whiskers

Trembling Hand said:


> slip sliding away!!
> 
> The PPT/Manipulators/Lairs/Cheats/table of 8 controlling gentleman/whatever you wanna call them are trying to feed the Gold/Silver/Commodity Bugs the Cucumber Rumba. Ouch!!
> 
> Will be a mountain of stops to clean out $15 bucks lower.




Yes, even though my only holding includes gold, copper and various agri/industrial minerals I have to agree. The old G7 are abandoning gold to save the USD now... since it now seems that there ain't gonna be an 'official' recession.

I still think the factor driving the market atm is Oil... over inflated. If/when oil busts and settles back around 90/100 and the USD strengthens a bit more we should see any losses in USD gold made up for in AUD to a large extent.


----------



## Fed23

Im a newbie to this but I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.

When the market was crapping in jan, gold shot up, the market is back in that time now where it's a bloodbath but gold is not going up instead it's going down.


----------



## Sean K

Fed23 said:


> Im a newbie to this but I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.
> 
> When the market was crapping in jan, gold shot up, the market is back in that time now where it's a bloodbath but gold is not going up instead it's going down.



Speculation oil is peaking and US has finished with rate cuts, IMO.

If either, or both, go the way gold wants it too, then you'll see POG rise.

And, if Isreal throw a nuke at Iran, watch out....


----------



## explod

Fed23 said:


> Im a newbie to this but I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.
> 
> When the market was crapping in jan, gold shot up, the market is back in that time now where it's a bloodbath but gold is not going up instead it's going down.




Do not be too concerned.    Gold is up about US$30 to 50 an ounce so far this year and $230 on 1 year ago.  We could say it is going sideways at the moment while the financials are going down.    It continues to bounce off support around the $US860 area and on which which I commented a week ago.  

A lot of politics is involved in gold and its upward movement is also viewed as a threat to paper money.   Because gold has intrinsic value it will prevail in due course to the upside.

cheers explod


----------



## Trembling Hand

Fed23 said:


> I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.




*what uncertainity??* Every man and his Gold fish knows how clapped out the western economies are. At the moment she's all priced in.

Beware of trading off last months themes. Look for the surprises not the 'news' your Taxi driver knows about.


----------



## ithatheekret

A look back to 2003 when the last bastion of the link between money and gold faded , this was when the Central Banks who had already tossed gold out and bowed to the Dollar , finally got the Banque of Settlements to follow the universal dictatum . One would have supposed that this was the end of gold as an asset if we were to follow the Wiggs and Keynesian train of thought .

But ..... I think BIS using SDRs which are virtually non existent money opened everyones eyes up to the fragility of the entire system as a whole . The banks latest run of events ...... the " crisis " , shows that binary dollars are very easy to manipulate , especially with the expansive approach . Bit hard to do that with a grain of wheat or a lump of steel , etc., etc ., etc.

When it comes down to times of uncertainty though , I always thought Cash was King , a few blocks of gold helps too  .


----------



## refined silver

> Trembling Hand said:
> 
> 
> 
> *what uncertainity??* Every man and his Gold fish knows how clapped out the western economies are.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thats funny, Bernanke and US financial TV are proclaiming the odds of a recession receding, and that its all good, not that its all bad.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At the moment she's all priced in.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Really? So you see financials, home-builders, debt-based assets and consumer goods not going any lower?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Beware of trading off last months themes. Look for the surprises not the 'news' your Taxi driver knows about.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Do you think the credit crisis, dollar crisis etc are month long themes?
> 
> Everyone knew about the 1929 bust, and everyone famously called bottoms all the way down. Just because all know doesn't mean its all priced in. Bear mkts slide down a "hill of hope".
Click to expand...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Rough Silver she's drop 25% in 6 months(equity markets) you think she will drop another 25% in the next 6 months? Probably not but if is does it will be on NEW themes, NEW twists.


----------



## MRC & Co

refined silver said:


> Everyone knew about the 1929 bust, and everyone famously called bottoms all the way down. Just because all know doesn't mean its all priced in. Bear mkts slide down a "hill of hope".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, I have to agree.
> 
> IF the market looses another 20%, it will be on the same themes, just new information.
> 
> The big killer at the moment is the inflation rate, oil is a large cause, not to mention, food prices.
> 
> Heck, even a country like China is barely experiencing any "real" growth, it's simply all being gulped up by inflation, lucky for them, it includes demand driven, for Western society, it appears all cost-push.
> 
> The staglfation issue is causing a real bungle, I will love to see how they plan to get out of it, other than recession............of course, statistical manipulation is never off the cards
> 
> If recession "officially" occurs in the US, will be interesting to know if expectations have already factored it in........
Click to expand...


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> Rough Silver she's drop 25% in 6 months(equity markets) you think she will drop another 25% in the next 6 months? Probably not but if is does it will be on NEW themes, NEW twists.




I think its more likely going to be NEW NAMES.

Yes, I think the sectors I mentioned are not close to bottoming yet.


----------



## michael_selway

refined silver said:


> I think its more likely going to be NEW NAMES.
> 
> Yes, I think the sectors I mentioned are not close to bottoming yet.




Hi here's a good site on some gold stocks

http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Brokers_Notes_June/BGFGoldSector2Junefinal1.pdf

thx

MS


----------



## Uncle Festivus

michael_selway said:


> Hi here's a good site on some gold stocks
> 
> http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Brokers_Notes_June/BGFGoldSector2Junefinal1.pdf
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Excellent stuff - must keep an eye out for the developers report


----------



## cuttlefish

Cheers Michael - it was interesting to read through that and compare to my own personal views on the values of the various stocks covered - actually a reasonably good match on the ones I'm familiar with (about half of them) which is reassuring.  Its a pretty comprehensive report.


----------



## wavepicker

I don't like posting links to other sites very often as it's not my style, but I think this is a very good Technical Analysis presentation by Adam Hewison whom I have a lot of time for.

Both Apocalyto and I have expressed our views on this thread both written, and more so graphically in the last few months. We have been classed non resptable posters, dreamers and out of touch with the supply and demand fundematals. But the markets just keep moving our way.

Adam Hewison been around for a long time, and I find it very interesting that his analysis concurs with what we have been presenting very well. (There is no EW, cycles or other theories as they have been called by various posters on this thread in this presentation)

As he says in this video, it ain't the fundementals that are the primary drivers of the markets, it's *perception*.  

As such it comes as no surprise to me to see the current decline in Gold and rally in the USD which is exactly what we expected.



http://broadcast.ino.com/education/3markets4296/?3markets2


Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co

wavepicker said:


> As he says in this video, it ain't the fundementals that are the primary drivers of the markets, it's *perception*.




In the short-term.

In the longer term, the market will at some stage, move somewhere near it's 'intrinsic value'.  

Gold has hardly fallen to the levels you say, so the 'I told you so' is a bit premature yet.  But good luck with the shorts.


----------



## wavepicker

MRC & Co said:


> In the short-term.
> 
> In the longer term, the market *will *at some stage, move somewhere near it's 'intrinsic value'.




Perhaps.
The market *will* do to it wants to. 

"He who lives by the crystal ball must learn to eat glass.... just ask MRC & Co's dentist"

In the 20 years that I have followed markets, I have never wintnessed markets reach an equilibrium, but rather are always passing through an equilibrium until they reach an extreme up or down.


----------



## MRC & Co

wavepicker said:


> Perhaps.
> The market *will* do to it wants to.
> 
> "He who lives by the crystal ball must learn to eat glass.... just ask MRC & Co's dentist"
> 
> In the 20 years that I have followed markets, I have never wintnessed markets reach an equilibrium, but rather are always passing through an equilibrium until they reach an extreme up or down.




No, they will only oscillate around an equilibrium, which means, infact, at some point, they will reach an equilibrium (however vauge that equilibrium is, as it impossible to TRULY value something), very shortly, as they go on to move through it one way or the other.  You said so yourself.  

How about asking Buffetts dentist how his crystal ball worked?  

Crystal ball?  ha ha, coming from EW man.  

I don't base my trades on fundamentals or crystal balls

Trade what you see and all that.


----------



## barrett

Potentially a bullish wedge forming right at the end of this chart.

Also potential for support from this trendline drawn on daily closes..  I'm a bull for the next couple of days unless it's broken.

On the other hand the US dollar index is looking positive, though not yet broken out of the upside resistance from its pennant.  At this stage in the ST maybe the direction of oil is especially critical for deciding which way things go.


----------



## Whiskers

barrett said:


> ...maybe the direction of oil is especially critical for deciding which way things go.




Yeah, so say me.

It's been a laggard tracking the POG and together with the inevetable strengthening of the USD, I reckon it's just a matter of time until it bursts it's poofu valve.


----------



## barrett

Saudi Arabia says it's going to increase production, so oil breaks out of its week-long wedge to a new high.
Very bullish for gold and oil in the short term IMO.  Went long earlier on the fly, hoping to add longs on pullbacks to the high 880s
spot crude hourly


----------



## Sean K

HUI and XAU taking very similar shape, as you would expect. Two distinct support levels. Perhaps corresponding to POG $860 and $840 aproximalimente? 

The HUI's looking a bit head and shouldery there. eeeeek. 

Just on S&R would expect those levels to hold all things being equal. 

'Fundamental' changes such as Oil retreat, USD strength, Interest rate rises, the world starting to love each other, etc, may conspire to send everything lower.  

Or, what wave are we in that's going to drive us into the 700s? Must go back and check.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Or, what wave are we in that's going to drive us into the 700s? Must go back and check.



Ah, found the latest from WP which had us in a Wc heading lower towards $845.



wavepicker said:


> Cr.p!!   I have every right to be excited because I am short and trade going as I planned. What has been confirmed tonight is that Gold is going lower in the near future before it moves higher again. 3 waves always ubfold agianst the one larger trend, therefore the last low at 845 will be taken out.




Understanding that this is a dynamic business, is this wave count still valid?  I assume that if POG bounces off $850 ish and passes up through Wb top at $930 ish, it is disproven? So far this has not occurred of course, so still on track?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> HUI and XAU taking very similar shape, as you would expect. Two distinct support levels. Perhaps corresponding to POG $860 and $840 aproximalimente?
> 
> The HUI's looking a bit head and shouldery there. eeeeek.
> 
> Just on S&R would expect those levels to hold all things being equal.
> 
> 'Fundamental' changes such as Oil retreat, USD strength, Interest rate rises, the world starting to love each other, etc, may conspire to send everything lower.
> 
> Or, what wave are we in that's going to drive us into the 700s? Must go back and check.





The financial situation is the key.   The US and now many other nations are servicing debt beyond means to repay, apart from dropping currency values.   Those pennies are dropping.   The support level of 860 is now strong.

I wonder if the coin of phrase "the penny drops"   may have started life in the 1920's


----------



## explod

On sizing up overnight, notice from after our close gold rose $US27 in 6 hours and of course settling back down a bit lower during the US trade.

The power building and volatility is going to see a very strong move on the breakout.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> The power building and volatility is going to see a very strong move on the breakout.



You're assuming break up I assume? I'm on the fence until it proves itself. Getting exciting though. Big coil like, triangle type thing developing. 

Here's another gold chart also indicating current support with the next level down perhaps.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> You're assuming break up I assume? I'm on the fence until it proves itself. Getting exciting though. Big coil like, triangle type thing developing.
> 
> Here's another gold chart also indicating current support with the next level down perhaps.





No, could go either way.  Its volatility will be very marked by general market conditions for awhile.  Fear will have huge effects in the next 3 months.  W/P may even be correct in his shorter term analysis.

Just sit tight on the physical in the meantime.


----------



## ithatheekret

872 retested , with what looks like a confirmed support above 860 , that little chip above the last testing area has my attention at present .

I'm thinking this will be a long drawn out match , probably going into penalty time ............. shame the other side has no goalie  and now they're so confused they've got the drinks runner dashing out with a bat .... or is it the thirteenth man on the wrong oval 

London AM close back on 872 , feel like we've been here before ........ ?

What is worrying , is the rhetoric elsewhere , same style lead up , let's hope the actions aren't similar too .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

ithatheekret said:


> I'm thinking this will be a long drawn out match , probably going into penalty time ............. shame the other side has no goalie  and now they're so confused they've got the drinks runner dashing out with a bat .... or is it the thirteenth man on the wrong oval
> 
> London AM close back on 872 , feel like we've been here before ........ ?
> 
> What is worrying , is the rhetoric elsewhere , same style lead up , let's hope the actions aren't similar too .




The 'rhetoric rally' may have more to it if the US Fed still has any sway over world finances. The trend for the M aggregates has been for a tightening, so they may be telegraphing to the market an _intention_ of raising rates without ever having to, because of a few niggling things like the real estate crash and the recession.

They will walk a tightrope over whether they want inflation or deflation now, so we could see another reversal in the M's to re-inflate after the long predicted rebound in the second half of the year fails to materialise? 

I think the wedge formation has broken down into a descending triangle, so a bit bearish for now??

Still think it will be this qtrs reporting season in July/August before we get some big moves - either way


----------



## barrett

The oil wedge had a false breakout and seems to have broken down, as has the gold pennant.. in on the short side for tonight


----------



## barrett

There's that 872-873 support.. bounced off strongly, I've gone neutral..  but if that level was broken the bears would probably have a field day!


----------



## ithatheekret

Uncle Festivus said:


> The 'rhetoric rally' may have more to it if the US Fed still has any sway over world finances. The trend for the M aggregates has been for a tightening, so they may be telegraphing to the market an _intention_ of raising rates without ever having to, because of a few niggling things like the real estate crash and the recession.
> 
> They will walk a tightrope over whether they want inflation or deflation now, so we could see another reversal in the M's to re-inflate after the long predicted rebound in the second half of the year fails to materialise?
> 
> I think the wedge formation has broken down into a descending triangle, so a bit bearish for now??  I disagree here Unc .
> 
> Still think it will be this qtrs reporting season in July/August before we get some big moves - either way




What we have to get through to people is that financial crisis is far from over , inflation will be more uncomfortable over the coming months and that is the gist of the future prospects ..... adjust your portfolios appropriately .

The US housing problem is still heading south , and will do for at least another 10-15% at a bare minimum . All the rhetoric in the world won't stop the wave of problems ahead , action is needed , but as with everything administrations do , there is a definite lag effect , unfortunately the lag period here could be in years and not the couple it usually takes to catch up , we are talking at least a decade .

The M3 miracles are nothing but wallpaper and paint covering up the cracks , ever since inflation swung about on them , when the failed to contain the monster , after they declared they had , we have seen the cost-push ratios increase monthly , this effectively sends staples ( food ) through the roof .
Natural disaters that have destroyed crops and savaged the growing belts around the globe have added to the rise , so when you here them say they have it contained again , just remember they couldn't hold back a fart , yet alone cost-push inflation , this leg will go hyper , they just don't want panic .


----------



## explod

ithatheekret said:


> What we have to get through to people is that financial crisis is far from over , inflation will be more uncomfortable over the coming months and that is the gist of the future prospects ..... adjust your portfolios appropriately .
> , .




Yep. I am probably a bit off topic but confirms the trajectory .  The following from Jeremy Grantham, quoted in Cnanada's Globe and Mail:-




> You draw comparisons between what's happening today and the start of the Great Depression.
> 
> We're in that 1929-30 window, where we've had a shock to the system. But the secondary effects - less consumption, lower profit margins, lower GDP, lower employment, lower global trade - are beginning to work through the system. They're steadfastly ignored because they're still quite slight. It takes a year, 18 months [or] even longer for some of these effects to show up.


----------



## explod

On the look of the daily candle chart it is my view that gold should progress to the $US905 area this week.

If strength remains from that point, a breach of 925 may well see a new move beyond $US1000

But only a view.     

Need a few merlot's, which is imminent


----------



## ithatheekret

Well I had a few reds last night , but it did not sway the bemusement of the March TIC data , revised from just over $80B down to a minus $40 odd billion .

Aprils figure came in around $60B , still well short of the prescribed $85B needed each month from the rest of the global community to keep Uncle Sams tills ticking over and reduce that nasty old deficit .

So on that front , it's about time Ben and Co. , went back to primary school and worked on the addition and subtraction sums .

What was that mystery number and where in the flippin' heck did they dig it up from . Perhaps some others are on the red as well , although by the calculations you'd swear they were on something harder .

I think I know where they came up with it ........ they pulled it out their ar** , they made it up , waved the magic wand and hey presto .

Abracadabra ....... instant BS .


----------



## wayneL

ithatheekret said:


> Well I had a few reds last night , but it did not sway the bemusement of the March TIC data , revised from just over $80B down to a minus $40 odd billion .
> 
> Aprils figure came in around $60B , still well short of the prescribed $85B needed each month from the rest of the global community to keep Uncle Sams tills ticking over and reduce that nasty old deficit .
> 
> So on that front , it's about time Ben and Co. , went back to primary school and worked on the addition and subtraction sums .
> 
> What was that mystery number and where in the flippin' heck did they dig it up from . Perhaps some others are on the red as well , although by the calculations you'd swear they were on something harder .
> 
> I think I know where they came up with it ........ they pulled it out their ar** , they made it up , waved the magic wand and hey presto .
> 
> Abracadabra ....... instant BS .




You expected different? 

Bull###t baffles brains.


----------



## ithatheekret

wayneL said:


> You expected different?
> 
> Bull###t baffles brains.





They say our minds are like parachutes and they best work when open . Strewth they make it hard though , just sometimes they throw in such a good spanner , it absolutely befuddles me ....... how they get away with it .

Weirdos and religious zealots of all description flourishing in their Greens and now a pile of compost in the Fed records .

Wonderful way to build faith back into the market .    

I know , let's really stuff 'em up , we'll send them Gordon bennett oops Brown , just for laughs we'll chuck in Malcolm Turnbull , if we've run out of steak knives ( they are of value ) , we'll give 'em Mals comrade Kev instead .

At least Mal can sort of add up and Kevs got the syntax down pat .


----------



## wayneL

ithatheekret said:


> I know , let's really stuff 'em up , we'll send them Gordon bennett oops Brown ..




Now that's just plain mean. :

Mind you, he will be looking for a job shortly. I would be god if it was elsewhere.


----------



## barrett

Does anyone know what is up with that little explosion just now in the oil and gold markets?  One minute oil is 134, two seconds later it's 135, two seconds later it's 133, 30 seconds later it's back at 134.. was it the Brazilian federal reserve jawboning   ...or just a good old fashioned bernanke boning?


----------



## ithatheekret

George is twisting arms in the congress to lift the ban on drilling on the outer continental shelf and the ban on shale drilling in Alaska , there was some blah blahing on federal refinery building permits approvals being sped up , with the hope of increasing capacity , but I'm sure the same story line was run last year . This time I suppose it's the outcome of the congress that has the punters buzzing .

Whilst he ponders on congress , he can watch as airlines cut flights to reduce capacity .

Pure physics ........... by George ........... action - reaction .

But at least there's some hope down the line ....... in a decade or so if Congress conforms to his will and says stuff the enviroment .

It's about time oil got to retest that $130 spot anyways ...........


----------



## Free Soul

You guys think the value of gold is going to go up any further in the short term?  I was hoping for a decrease in gold value before I bought some.  But if its just going to continue going up, it might be worth me getting it now.  Anyone?


----------



## Sean K

Free Soul said:


> You guys think the value of gold is going to go up any further in the short term?  I was hoping for a decrease in gold value before I bought some.  But if its just going to continue going up, it might be worth me getting it now.  Anyone?



LOL.  You are going to get some vastly differing views here. Perhaps you should read through the last 10 pages to get an idea. First of all however, you need to define what exactly is 'short term'. One day, one week, one month, three months? And what is your investment horison? One day, six months, one year, five years? Makes it hard to make a call on whether ASF should 'advise' you to get into the gold sector without that basic understanding. 

Looking forward to the various opinions.


----------



## Free Soul

Short term meaning the next couple of days.  Long term, is however long before USD goes to pot.  I'm buying gold bullion coins to diversify my portfolio.  I dont know if I should wait till its abit lower (if it will get lower in the short term) Or just buy now...


----------



## Aussiejeff

Free Soul said:


> Short term meaning the next couple of days.  Long term, is however long before USD goes to pot.  I'm buying gold bullion coins to diversify my portfolio.  I dont know if I should wait till its abit lower (if it will get lower in the short term) Or just buy now...




You are in the same boat as Columbus ... should I stay or should I go (to the New World)!!

LOL

Seriously though, IMO short term fundamentals are being seriously affected by sentiment at the moment (have been for some time). Many times it seems a whisper in a dark corner somewhere in cyberspace can have as much effect on the short term price of any share or commodity as fundamentals can... so caution required.


AJ


----------



## wayneL

Free Soul said:


> Short term meaning the next couple of days.  Long term, is however long before USD goes to pot.  I'm buying gold bullion coins to diversify my portfolio.  I dont know if I should wait till its abit lower (if it will get lower in the short term) Or just buy now...



I'm buying Krugs for their copper content. 

::


----------



## Free Soul

krugs for copper?   I like it for the gold .  Though I do haver a question about the freddy's, does it make a difference when selling if I get an older kruggie?  You know the ones that are not as shiny etc.  Also, ok, so the short term price is going crazy with internet rumors, so I guess that means that now is as good a time as any to buy cause short term is hard to predict?


----------



## josjes

Gold in Aus$ price for the last 3 years with William%R at the bottom chart. Whenever W%R cross below -80 (shaded area) that is the buying point for long term holder. That is what I have been practicing for the last months.


----------



## wayneL

josjes said:


> Gold in Aus$ price for the last 3 years with William%R at the bottom chart. Whenever W%R cross below -80 (shaded area) that is the buying point for long term holder. That is what I have been practicing for the last months.



I think the fast stochastic is far better than Williams%R.


----------



## Free Soul

Nice.  Could you possibly direct me to a tutorial for nubs?  Also, does it make much of a difference when selling if getting older dirtier kruggies rather than shiny new mints?


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> I think the fast stochastic is far better than Williams%R.




Notice the superior signals from the fast stoch...

:run:


----------



## Free Soul

I don't see any difference @ WayneL :


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?




Just for the argument my take is that gold has been in a holding pattern with some volatility for 2008.    The C/B's allowed it to have a bit of a run to oversold territory in order to ensure that the audience was listening, then smacked them down.   The old cool hand luke's of course got suckered after the blowoff in 1980, but not this time, "told you so", so to speak (We learn from losses more than anything else in life).

So there is great fear of gold at both ends of the financial school system, is why you have cliff-falls like SBM.

Gold is the alternate money and the only one just about with any value, it is political and its rise signals that all is not well; we cant' have that now, can we.

We know that a crash is coming, and true to our recent teaching (lesson)gold will go with it too.  I think W/P may have is day in the sun.   But when the penny drops, with the currencies the gold will IMHO skyrocket, sometime after the US Pres., election


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?




Yeah, I'm inclined to agee.

It's an interesting struggle going on at the moment between the POG, POO and the USD. 

Turning that POG, lagging POO chart (that I posted earlier) around it looks to me that Oil is topping out, and given there is increasing political pressure to save the USD *it seems the Nov, Dec 07 levels are significant and probably good support... in USD's*.

Of course if the USD does get a bit more traction in the short/med term that in itself will equate to a better proposition for Aus industry. 

If this scenario does transpire, we're effectively back to the more attractive POO, POG ratio's of late last year and a better POG in AUD's.


----------



## SGB

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?




Hi Uncle

I'll throw in a Contracting Triangle.

SGB


----------



## ithatheekret

Not a prolific EW user here , but ......that does look like a contracting triangle to myself also . With that conclusion , I'd say a little stalled sideways action will eventuate into a spike ( hopefully a you beaut one ) . But it looks like a bullish event in the making , let's see if all the sidways action has run it's course for now and/or whether we revisit that 860 spot .........


----------



## ithatheekret

Something I should add , is that I follow the 200 day MA . I've had it down as the support area for years now . I consider it the main support area to work off of . When the price bounces off that support it tends to make like a rocket , if it breaches the support it goes into submarine mode . We've bounced off the 200MA so I expect some altitude to be forthcoming .

Current target on my board is $905 .


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> IAs such it comes as no surprise to me to see the current decline in Gold and rally in the USD which is exactly what we expected.



LOL
Still trotting out this line.


----------



## cuttlefish

ithatheekret said:
			
		

> current target on my board is $905 .



wow you got there pretty quickly!

The junior and mid-cap gold sector has been sold down pretty heavily of late so even a neutral gold price view has some of them looking like worthwhile buys.


----------



## ithatheekret

Let's see where POG closes in NY , we're in the zone , but the close price is the interest . It could go higher yet , there's a couple of factors in play on the sidelines with POO . It's interesting to see that silver decided to follow the leader , must of lost a shoe last night and had to go back and get it .............  

We're now in June , Summer fun time on the way in the NH , inflation should dent some of the fun though . Word of some sort of attack on infrastructure in Nigeria , some think it will push POO up , I don't really subscribe to that notion ........ If GW were to push the wrong button when paging his PA for his decafe and accidently nuke Venezuela ........ well ............ , we'd see $200 POO then  But China who seconds good old USA should manage to cap anything Nigeria can spit out , with the news of their latest on subsidy slashing effort . Quite a few subsidizing nations are doing this , but Chinas slash is close to 20% , so it should be good for oil for a week , ... hey but ...............


----------



## Sean K

$5000 anyone?



> *Schroder tips gold to hit $US5000*
> June 20, 2008 - 6:36AM
> 
> Gold prices may rise to $US5000 an ounce as investors seek to protect themselves against accelerating inflation, said Schroder Investment Management, which oversees $US277 billion of assets globally.
> 
> ''You could easily see for the next several years that prices rise not to $US1000 an ounce, but prices rise to $US5000 an ounce or beyond as inflation psychology becomes more and more embedded and people become desperate to have a source of value,'' said Christopher Wyke, London-based emerging market debt and commodities product manager at Schroder, which oversees about $US10 billion of commodity assets.




Doesn't give any detailed anlysis for the price except 'inflation' really, so not sure of the value of the post.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> $5000 anyone?
> 
> 
> 
> Doesn't give any detailed anlysis for the price except 'inflation' really, so not sure of the value of the post.




This raises an interesting point.   

As a very experienced poster you would be well aware that this inflation and fundamentally adjusted figure for the future gold price has been well noted with substancial backing throughout this thread.  I realise the thread is now very long, however anyone at all serious about taking steps towards gold would be foolish indeed not to read thier way through it first.

Have been thinking of writing a paper based on this thread, fully noted of course, which with others could be something for ASF to devlope with postes having the desire and writing skills.    I am sure we have good editors also.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> This raises an interesting point.
> 
> As a very experienced poster you would be well aware that this inflation and fundamentally adjusted figure for the future gold price has been well noted with substancial backing throughout this thread.  I realise the thread is now very long, however anyone at all serious about taking steps towards gold would be foolish indeed not to read thier way through it first.
> 
> Have been thinking of writing a paper based on this thread, fully noted of course, which with others could be something for ASF to devlope with postes having the desire and writing skills.    I am sure we have good editors also.



Not exactly sure what you're insinuating explod, but my point is the $5000 is not backed up with anything but 'inflation'. Why not $50000?

I have read the thread. Cheers.


----------



## professor_frink

kennas said:


> Not exactly sure what you're insinuating explod, but my point is the $5000 is not backed up with anything but 'inflation'. Why not $50000?
> 
> I have read the thread. Cheers.




why not 100 billion dollars(raises little finger up to mouth Dr evil style)

If gold was to reach $5k an ounce, what would that mean for everything else? $1000 oil. 1 AUD buying 5 USD. World War 3 would surely have to be on the way pretty soon after. 

Time to buy shotguns and a patch of land in the middle of nowhere if that happens


----------



## barrett

Well that was a great call on last night's price move Itha, Explod... a breakout did occur through the resistance of UF's most recently posted wedge..  afterwards gold held up comparatively well despite a heavy selloff in oil... it should be quite bullish... but there are a few things spooking me at the moment...

1.  HUI and XAU were actually _down_ 1% and 0.76% last night, respectively, despite the gold breakout and stock markets having a fair up day.  

2.  Oil breakdown below wedge support? chart attached.  Also, last night's oil selloff occurred on high volume (not so for gold though).

3.  Gold double top at 908.8 spot?

If the gold breakout turns out to be held, the wedge that SGB posted puts the next strong resistance at around 920 on the daily close for the next day or two... 

Any further points/ideas about last night's action?
Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

professor_frink said:


> why not 100 billion dollars(raises little finger up to mouth Dr evil style)
> 
> If gold was to reach $5k an ounce, what would that mean for everything else? $1000 oil. 1 AUD buying 5 USD. World War 3 would surely have to be on the way pretty soon after.
> 
> Time to buy shotguns and a patch of land in the middle of nowhere if that happens




My view - open to alternatives?

I think it's all relative. Are the figures quoted $US? If then why? The relative value of gold is universally 'measured' in $USD, but all that's doing is measuring the increase of those units of 'value' in circulation ie currency debasement. Gold is the baseline for all fiat currency systems. I would assume that if you found the currency that gold has appreciated the least you would have the economy that is being managed the best, relative to all other economies?

It all fit's nicely to the time frame from 1971 and the subsequent unrestrained creation of 'IOU nothings' and paradigms like 'the market always rises' or house prices always go up'. They (prices) go up because of continued & assured monetary inflation every time it looks like they are going to go down in 'value'. Politicians want the wealth effect _now_, without worrying about the future.

So now we are at the point were the world has to decide if they want a pocket full of depreciating units of arbitrary value or whether they get replaced by units of 'real' universal value backed by an entity that cannot be created easily?

Central bankers are finding that the tricks they have used for 40 years no longer work because there is no 'value' to be gained because things are fully valued eg inflationised to the max. 

A critical juncture for possibly the entire global community is here, so can the junta of financial system alchemists going by the name of central banks once and for all be "masters of their domain" (I'm sure some of them have failed daily by the rhetoric coming out these days ) or if fiat currencies are relegated to a period of 'adjustment'???

Pontification ends - now


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> My view - open to alternatives?
> 
> I think it's all relative. Are the figures quoted $US? If then why? The relative value of gold is universally 'measured' in $USD, but all that's doing is measuring the increase of those units of 'value' in circulation ie currency debasement. Gold is the baseline for all fiat currency systems. I would assume that if you found the currency that gold has appreciated the least you would have the economy that is being managed the best, relative to all other economies?
> 
> It all fit's nicely to the time frame from 1971 and the subsequent unrestrained creation of 'IOU nothings' and paradigms like 'the market always rises' or house prices always go up'. They (prices) go up because of continued & assured monetary inflation every time it looks like they are going to go down in 'value'. Politicians want the wealth effect _now_, without worrying about the future.
> 
> So now we are at the point were the world has to decide if they want a pocket full of depreciating units of arbitrary value or whether they get replaced by units of 'real' universal value backed by an entity that cannot be created easily?
> 
> Central bankers are finding that the tricks they have used for 40 years no longer work because there is no 'value' to be gained because things are fully valued eg inflationised to the max.
> 
> A critical juncture for possibly the entire global community is here, so can the junta of financial system alchemists going by the name of central banks once and for all be "masters of their domain" (I'm sure some of them have failed daily by the rhetoric coming out these days ) or if fiat currencies are relegated to a period of 'adjustment'???
> 
> Pontification ends - now




LOL mate you should be writing books that was beautiful! ha ha ha


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Not exactly sure what you're insinuating explod, but my point is the $5000 is not backed up with anything but 'inflation'. Why not $50000?
> 
> I have read the thread. Cheers.




Throughout the thread it is backed up by very many facits of informnation.  I suppose what I am saying is that if one is aware that it is backed up within the document (ie. this thread) then why do we have to be pedantic on every post.    I have been acused (and penalised) for being too general sometimes and being too dogmatic and pedantic at others, but when others do it is ok.  I thnik to say gold is going to $5000 is ok and well backed up.   When time permits I will find the references backed with the facts and post it up.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Throughout the thread it is backed up by very many facits of informnation.  I suppose what I am saying is that if one is aware that it is backed up within the document (ie. this thread) then why do we have to be pedantic on every post.    I have been acused (and penalised) for being too general sometimes and being too dogmatic and pedantic at others, but when others do it is ok.  I thnik to say gold is going to $5000 is ok and well backed up.   When time permits I will find the references backed with the facts and post it up.



Hi explod, This is about the post I splashed up, and the $5000 target, with no real analysis. Why is it now about you?  If you can justify a $5000 target, great! Would help my LGL and NCM quite a bit. I'll go off now to study up about inflation. Cheers, kennas.


----------



## SGB

barrett said:


> Well that was a great call on last night's price move Itha, Explod... a breakout did occur through the resistance of UF's most recently posted wedge..  afterwards gold held up comparatively well despite a heavy selloff in oil... it should be quite bullish... but there are a few things spooking me at the moment...
> 
> 1.  HUI and XAU were actually _down_ 1% and 0.76% last night, respectively, despite the gold breakout and stock markets having a fair up day.
> 
> 2.  Oil breakdown below wedge support? chart attached.  Also, last night's oil selloff occurred on high volume (not so for gold though).
> 
> 3.  Gold double top at 908.8 spot?
> 
> If the gold breakout turns out to be held, the wedge that SGB posted puts the next strong resistance at around 920 on the daily close for the next day or two...
> 
> Any further points/ideas about last night's action?
> Cheers




Hi Barrett,

Until the beginning of this week I was a WP supporter and had thought Gold would give us a descent retrace, probably not as much as WP, but a 61.8% retrace to 790-800 ,back in Aug 07, the start of the 1st leg. (original chart below, that I was working on before this weeks move. see the diff in wave count) 

Which would have made logical sense because of the bullish pennant that was formed at the end of 07. But my view has changed this week because of the little run up we had in Wave C. 

Now, if this is a Contracting Triangle (different setup to the wedge), it is going to be a pretty good leg up, although I would have preferred the Minor ABC correction to play out and to confirm the MAJOR 3 wave. 

My view will turn bearish again though if 840 is breached.

Just my view.

SGB


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Hi explod, This is about the post I splashed up, and the $5000 target, with no real analysis. Why is it now about you?  If you can justify a $5000 target, great! Would help my LGL and NCM quite a bit. I'll go off now to study up about inflation. Cheers, kennas.




I apologise as I did not mean to get to this point with you Kennas. I respect and regard you as a valuable mentor.

To be fair, IMHO (and conceed I am not too humble sometimes) Schroder in his article outlines, including inflation, other matters supporting his contention.   Without pasting the article, we are talking supply getting tight, size of gold market over derivatives (its' space frame, if you can get your head, and it's hard, around those numbers which look like imploding soon) and others facits.  Probably slanted for his own cause of course. 

But think it is backed up ok., but am no expert and often wrong.

Cheers and sorry to take matters off topic.  explod

ps.

And yes why not $50,000  on a longer term time frame.   Probably the specific figure is a problem.   But on the multiples of the 1970 bull,  $5,000 per ounce is just a bit over the ball park figure to the blow off top.


----------



## barrett

SGB said:


> Hi Barrett,
> 
> Until the beginning of this week I was a WP supporter and had thought Gold would give us a descent retrace, probably not as much as WP, but a 61.8% retrace to 790-800 ,back in Aug 07, the start of the 1st leg. (original chart below, that I was working on before this weeks move. see the diff in wave count)
> 
> Which would have made logical sense because of the bullish pennant that was formed at the end of 07. But my view has changed this week because of the little run up we had in Wave C.
> 
> Now, if this is a Contracting Triangle (different setup to the wedge), it is going to be a pretty good leg up, although I would have preferred the Minor ABC correction to play out and to confirm the MAJOR 3 wave.
> 
> My view will turn bearish again though if 840 is breached.
> 
> Just my view.
> 
> SGB




Your views are very welcome around here, whichever direction they point in...  good to have you on board.

During the day it looks like gold had a textbook low volume retracement back to the breakout point..  have given up trying to describe the oil chart... but another clue may come from the EURUSD which looks to be putting in a base..


----------



## ans25

Hi everyone,
Nice thread we have here, I was just wondering can someone provide me with some gold threads, Im thinking of topping up after a bit of research.

Thanks


----------



## Whiskers

Gold falling like a rock. Struth,  875 and falling faster than I can post.

Oil should folllow.


----------



## wayneL

Wacked at the open. Any news? CB selling or something?


----------



## cuttlefish

wow its on an elevator to the basement, very impressive cliff jump.


----------



## cuttlefish

wonder if there's any chance of it retracing just as quickly.


----------



## wayneL

cuttlefish said:


> wonder if there's any chance of it retracing just as quickly.




The wheel is spinning... place your bets, place your bets.


----------



## cuttlefish

These sharp downturns in the days prior to fed gatherings have been a recurring theme this year though haven't they?


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> Wacked at the open. Any news? CB selling or something?




Just my guess that if the amount of reported  speculative holdings in oil, abt 71% according to a US congressman, and given a likely steady fall in the rate of demand for Oil in the US... and by no means least of all, getting consumers, politicans, refiners and producers pissed off over the current price of oil... those speculativce interests are probably getting worried about tightening up regulation of the oil market and getting caught holding expensive contracts as consumer rebellion sets in to kill demand.

The consequence would be a significant drop in inflation forcasts and consequently the POG.

Gonna be interesting how the treasury and the FED see the POO after the weekend summit.


----------



## Whiskers

Looks like there is plenty of support for killing off the oil speculators.

If Stupaks 50% reduction in fuel costs is anywhere near correct, that must pretty much wipe out oil contributing to inflation for awhile... and put the skids under the POG too probably.



> Democrats offer another bill to curb oil speculation
> Monday June 23, 8:39 am ET
> By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
> 
> 
> Congress will focus on energy speculation on Monday, as some lawmakers blamed Wall Street traders for record oil and gasoline prices.
> 
> Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., the chair of a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee, will investigate whether further regulation of trading is warranted.
> 
> 
> On Sunday, Democratic presidential candidate *Sen. Barack Obama *said that as president he would strengthen government oversight of energy traders. His Republican rival, *Sen. John McCain*, said he has supported efforts to close the "Enron loophole."
> 
> 
> "We can eliminate a major avenue that traders use to avoid oversight," said Stupak at a press conference Friday. "It's time for Congress to close the Enron loophole and *lower our gas and diesel prices by 50%*
> 
> http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080623/062308_energy_speculation.html."


----------



## RobinHood

I wonder what this "major avenue" is which causes trader "oversight"?


----------



## Whiskers

RobinHood said:


> I wonder what this "major avenue" is which causes trader "oversight"?




That would be a loose, relatively unregulated electronic market place. 



> and excuse me, but what exactly is the "enron loophole"? It sounds like another one of those wishy-washy bureaucratic terms meaning nothing.




Enron was a major energy company in the US that became riddled with corruption and fraud and eventually collapsing.

A brief summary at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron


----------



## wayneL

Also: www.closetheenronloophole.com/


----------



## RobinHood

Thankyou.



			
				Whiskers said:
			
		

> That would be a loose, relatively unregulated electronic market place.




So according to this guy(Stupak), the "unregulated" market place has caused speculators to incorrectly determine the price of crude? 
So his / govt committee perception of fair value is right and everyone else (especially big nasty speculators) is wrong?

P.S. I'm not trying to start a debate here, just want some opinions (on practicality).


----------



## ithatheekret

RobinHood said:


> Thankyou.
> 
> 
> 
> So according to this guy(Stupak), the "unregulated" market place has caused speculators to incorrectly determine the price of crude?
> So his / govt committee perception of fair value is right and everyone else (especially big nasty speculators) is wrong?
> 
> P.S. I'm not trying to start a debate here, just want some opinions (on practicality).





I can add another probing question ? Because I think it would expose the perceptions for what they are .

What are these speculators fixated on ?


----------



## Temjin

wayneL said:


> Wacked at the open. Any news? CB selling or something?




Haha it's another classic rapid selloff when the NYMEX starts. Remember I talked about it previously? (manipulation claims) But I now have some doubts about the manipulation, so let's not get back to it now. 

It's scary and a shame that I actually THOUGHT about the possibility of this rapid drop first thing in the New York morning. Cos the pattern seem to repeat itself so often that one can almost develop a system based on this! (ok, I haven't got to it yet...) 

There is really no significant fundamental-related news for the sell off. Oil was higher overnight and US dollars hardly moved. 

I'm just patiently waiting for the weekly signal and for the cycle to resume its trend sometime in August/Sep, or maybe Oct.


----------



## cuttlefish

RobinHood said:


> I wonder what this "major avenue" is which causes trader "oversight"?






RobinHood said:


> So according to this guy(Stupak), the "unregulated" market place has caused speculators to incorrectly determine the price of crude?
> So his / govt committee perception of fair value is right and everyone else (especially big nasty speculators) is wrong?
> 
> P.S. I'm not trying to start a debate here, just want some opinions (on practicality).




RobinHood - my interpretation of the phrasing used ("We can eliminate a major avenue that traders use to _avoid_ oversight")  is that its not about _causing _ traders to have oversight but that there are major avenues that allow traders  (i.e. large hedge funds) to _avoid_ regulatory oversight thus enabling them to manipulate markets unchecked.


What I find ironic is that when 'punters' blame gold price falls on government manipulation thats considered paranoid conspiracy theory but when the government blames oil price rises on hedge fund manipulation thats perfectly legit.


----------



## explod

For those fairly new to the gold thread, thought the following explanation of Gold versus fiat paper currency from James Turk's latest item on Kitco may be usefull.



> Gold is money, but national currencies are just a money substitute. There is an important difference between them. For an exchange in the marketplace to be “extinguished”, assets have to be exchanged for assets. So if one uses gold to buy a car, for example, an asset (gold) is being exchanged for an asset (the car), and the instant the assets change hands, the exchange is extinguished. There are no lingering obligations. But consider this transaction if one uses a national currency, i.e., a money substitute.
> 
> The national currency is not a tangible asset; it is a deposit liability of a bank. Therefore, the buyer in this exchange walks off with the car (an asset) and the seller walks off with a money substitute (a bank’s liability), so the exchange is not extinguished. There is a lingering obligation until the seller successfully exchanges the national-currency money-substitute for a good or service.
> 
> Thus, money substitutes introduce a risk into the transaction that does not exist when using gold. It is payment risk, and it exists because the recipient may not be able to purchase a good or service with the money substitute received in a transaction. Payment risk means that the money substitute may lose all or some of its value before it can be exchanged for items of value.
> 
> For more than 300 years, we have been using money substitutes in commerce. Their problems are obvious. Paper currencies often become worthless if banks fail, or when central banks pursue reckless policies that erode – and in some cases destroy – the value of the currency.




Should you read the full article on Kitco you will find he is promoting his own Gold exchange programme.  I do not necessarily endorse such products.   I hold physical gold and silver only with some gold shares on the ASX.    DYOR


----------



## cuttlefish

I'm feeling more optimistic about the gold price lately and also the prospects for gold juniors from here.  Some have been making good progress on exploration and/or develpment and/or production without that being reflected in the price (and in fact the opposite as most have continued to be heavily sold down in spite of the gold price still being much better than it was even only 8 months ago).

I don't think it will take much strength in the gold price to bring attention to some of them so if we see gold move up into the mid to high 900 range some time in the next few months I'd expect a noticeable turnaround in sentiment towards some of the quality juniors.  

In the meantime there could be continued weakness and some capitulation activity in some of these as well (in some we're already seeing this) so there could be good opportunity in the next couple of months to pick up quality at good prices.


----------



## wayneL

Nice pop around the floor open.



			
				cuttlefish said:
			
		

> wonder if there's any chance of it retracing just as quickly.



Well, you had to wait a couple of days, but that it did, plus a bit. 

The rejection of lower prices yesterday should've had a few of us set.


----------



## cuttlefish

Yes I did notice some spring in its step this evening - I can see why you're wearing that big grin! I guess the conspiracy theory would call it a bit of covering after the pre-fed shorting effort.


----------



## Trembling Hand

I was looking for a break down from 860 but nope.

Still got a bit of work to do to get over that last high at 940-960. Oils going nuts as I post so it may tickle that area soon


----------



## cuttlefish

Maybe the world is starting to think this inflation stuff might be real ... and the USD might not be.


----------



## Sean K

Golly, $31 up, but still going sideways. Or do we have a higher low in place now? 

HUI still coiling, still respecting resistance line though. That major support line looks pretty good now. Still looking heads and shouldery though.

Still wC down through $845 WP, or revised count?


----------



## barrett

Trembling Hand said:


> I was looking for a break down from 860 but nope.




You normally look at volume TH, look at the volume Wednesday night from 880-888
and on the upside of a hammer.

F-ing meaningless isn't it!  But apparently whatever big useless slimy creatures "that matter" for the gold market seem to attribute some actual meaning to this sort of crap!  What a f-ing bad joke they are!  You can still make good money out of those useless manipulating filth, whoever they are... and they''ll be strung up one day for our satisfaction along with " 'Sprog and Brown" or whatever they call themselves.

Spadgecock and Brown are just the leaders of a pack of idiots who think they can borrow their way to prosperity... have they not read history?  They have not!!!  They are idiots who have deserved the complete and utter shafting they get, and those of us who have read history have a good solid laugh at their Darwin award!

I am just playing along with this idiotic self-fulfilling technical game that the market plays until the true fundamentals of gold will re-assert themselves and gold will ascend to its deserved value of many thousands of dollars per ounce.  In the meantime look at the steaming pile of daily BS we have to put up with from the market... If I didn't understand the value of gold in this inflationary environment like every useless economic journalist in the world I have written to I would have bailed out long ago. 

We are right at wedge resistance, so for christs sake traders don't buy unless it breaks on the daily!   For now I'll be closing and fading their idiotic short-term enthusiasm.

Just look at these excited idiots rushing in!!! Traders short these Johnny-come-idiots!  In the short term at least .... and short the spadgecocks et al. after that


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> You normally look at volume TH, look at the volume Wednesday night from 880-888
> and on the upside of a hammer.
> 
> F-ing meaningless isn't it!  But apparently whatever big useless slimy creatures "that matter" for the gold market seem to attribute some actual meaning to this sort of crap!  What a f-ing bad joke they are!  You can still make good money out of those useless manipulating filth, whoever they are... and they''ll be strung up one day for our satisfaction along with " 'Sprog and Brown" or whatever they call themselves.
> 
> Spadgecock and Brown are just the leaders of a pack of idiots who think they can borrow their way to prosperity... have they not read history?  They have not!!!  They are idiots who have deserved the complete and utter shafting they get, and those of us who have read history have a good solid laugh at their Darwin award!
> 
> I am just playing along with this idiotic self-fulfilling technical game that the market plays until the true fundamentals of gold will re-assert themselves and gold will ascend to its deserved value of many thousands of dollars per ounce.  In the meantime look at the steaming pile of daily BS we have to put up with from the market... If I didn't understand the value of gold in this inflationary environment like every useless economic journalist in the world I have written to I would have bailed out long ago.
> 
> We are right at wedge resistance, so for christs sake traders don't buy unless it breaks on the daily!   For now I'll be closing and fading their idiotic short-term enthusiasm.
> 
> Just look at these excited idiots rushing in!!! Traders short these Johnny-come-idiots!  In the short term at least .... and short the spadgecocks et al. after that




A very nice rant there barrett.  

Sizes up things quite nicely I reckon.


----------



## refined silver

Here's another take on yesterday's action by Dan Norcini who is one of the smarter commentators versus Barrett's well described army of moron economic journalists.



> Posted On: Thursday, June 26, 2008, 1:48:00 PM EST
> Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
> Author: Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> Boy howdy did the market waste no time in letting Ben know what it thought about the recent FOMC statement!
> 
> Gold began recovering from its yesterday morning beating minutes after the FOMC statement hit the wire yesterday afternoon and then continued moving steadily higher as trading progressed from the far East, into Europe and finally into New York in today's session. Interesting enough, the analysts were attributing gold's rise to the weaker Dollar in lieu of the FOMC but in all honesty, the Euro, while higher for the day is not all that strong compared to what we are accustomed to seeing with gold as strong as it is today. If you will notice, the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars are all weaker against the Greenback. Crude oil is up sharply higher, completely ignoring yesterday's bearish EIA numbers but the real key to gold is that the entire commodity sector is surging higher. The grains are very strong (Corn put in another all time high) as are all the various metals with the result that the CCI index made another record high this morning. Its move higher is what is helping to keep a very firm bid under the gold market and has attracted the momentum funds in a big way now that overhead resistance at $910 has been shattered. Inflation fears are first and foremost on the minds of players.
> 
> My take on this is that while the Forex markets are pushing the European currencies as well as the Yen higher, the market views the Fed's statement from yesterday as a capitulation of any attempt to talk up the Dollar. Bernanke's bluff has been called and the weakness of his hand revealed. Economic data simply will not permit the Fed to hike anywhere near as soon as many had been duped into believing by all the hawkish talk coming out of the Fed prior to the FOMC statement. That has attracted a wall of money back into commodities as an inflation hedge and is the reason why gold is so strong. Further helping gold is the horrific beating the darlings of yesterday’s stock rally, the financials, are receiving in today’s session.
> 
> The stock market is being pounded to kingdom come as those same financials get shellacked due to a series of downgrades by Goldman Sachs which issued a sell recommendation on Citi. That prompted a near immediate response from Wachovia which promptly then downgraded Goldman in a tit-for-tat exchange being played by the investment banks. If you listen carefully, you can almost hear them saying to each other as soon as their recommendations are made public, “NA-NA-NA-NA-NA, we downgraded you before you downgraded us!” or, “Take that, you swine!”
> 
> It certainly appears that a whole army of gold shorts were taken out in today’s massive upside move judging from the speed and ferocity of the move that occurred. The range trade continues to snare its victims as shorts sell on weakness attempting to hitch a ride on what they are convinced is the beginning of a downtrending move while longs have been snookered into buying near the highs as they too wait for an expected breakout. Today’s move has come the closest to being a legitimate break from the trading range but we want to see gold maintain its footing above the top of the recent range ($910) for a while longer.  Volume has definitely been strong which is a plus but so far the mining shares as pictured in the XAU and the HUI have not broken out from their trading bands although both are very close. Ideally we want to see both bullion and the shares climbing out of their range trades together and in convincing fashion, not just edging beyond the upper limit of the recent range. Nevertheless the ability of the bulls to take gold and hold it above $910 is very impressive considering that the selling there has been intense!
> 
> I mentioned yesterday that the plunge in gold that occurred early in that session had taken out all the rest of the new longs who had bought in last Thursday and Friday. That turned out to be exactly the case as open interest plunged in yesterday’s session by nearly 5,000 contracts dropping all the way back down to 396,000. That is exactly the level it was at on the end of Wednesday’s trading session of last week. It is amazing to me to see how the bullion banks are so easily able to trip up the hedge funds who continue to live and die by their idiotic black box algorithms. Use your heads guys – that is why God gave them to you and throw away your computerized trading platforms if you want to make any money trading the gold market! You can beat the fire out of the bullion banks if you simply learn how to trade against them. They are NOT CLEVER or SOPHISTICATED in the least. Twenty years ago the traders of that era would have taken them out to the woodshed and beaten their rear ends with a stick and sent them home crying to Mama! Trading is war and the sooner you realize it and adapt your strategies to counter the tactics of your enemies, the sooner you will win it. Sticking with the same battle plan and never altering it allows the enemy to have the advantage. Wise up!
> 
> Let’s see how gold fares the rest of its North American trading session and then as it moves into Asia.


----------



## Trembling Hand

barrett said:


> You normally look at volume TH, look at the volume Wednesday night from 880-888
> and on the upside of a hammer.
> 
> F-ing meaningless isn't it!




:freak3: Not sure what you are ranting about . The volume is all pretty much standard except the nasty drop from 905 to 880 4 nights ago.


----------



## josjes

Please do yourself a favour and read this article. 
Orlandini is a highly respected analyst. His writing is entertaining more importantly cut straight to the point ! No messing about. Importantly, accurate. This article is written 20June08.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062308.html

_In spite of all efforts to push the yellow metal down, there was a weak 15% decline, after a very impressive rally, and that is an indication of real strength. Many sold out following that old maxim of "sell in May and go away". Gold has rebounded nicely and now they are caught out of position. That's what a gold bull does best; get you going when you should be coming.

The markets have finally arrived at the breaking point, that point where we must now all pay for our collective sins. The crash has not begun yet. The Dow should fall down to 10,795 and then we'll see the last good rally, a rally designed to suck in the very last dollar from the very last widow or orphan left standing. Only then will the whole steaming ugly pile of manure roll over and take absolutely everything down with it. There is no politician who can change the course of events; that dye has already been cast. Obama or McCain: a slow death or a faster death. The only question left in my mind is whether the final chapter will be written with a deflationary or inflationary pen. Since everybody is looking for inflation, I have to rely on my number one rule and back the deflationary horse. The market always gives you what you don't want and when you can least tolerate it. What we don't want is deflation and we can least tolerate it now.

In conclusion, there are plenty of warning signs out there if one only opens his eyes and looks. Gold has been extremely stubborn and resists downside movements in spite of countless attempts to sell it off. In fact it has formed a series of higher lows and lower highs which compress it into a tighter and tighter trading range.
We have seen this same exact pattern back in August 2007 and it led to a huge upside breakout. This is a bull market and the odds heavily favor the same type of upside breakout, with the only difference being that it could/should occur earlier this year. Maybe a lot earlier! *A real key will be the 907.40 resistance in the August contract.  *Two consecutive closes above this level means that gold has broken out and I don't think anyone or anything will turn that train around once it leaves the station. My best advice is to buy now before it leaves the station._


----------



## explod

professor_frink said:


> why not 100 billion dollars(raises little finger up to mouth Dr evil style)
> 
> If gold was to reach $5k an ounce, what would that mean for everything else? $1000 oil. 1 AUD buying 5 USD. World War 3 would surely have to be on the way pretty soon after.
> 
> Time to buy shotguns and a patch of land in the middle of nowhere if that happens




Thought it time to complete the content of my view.

In 1970 at the start of the last bull run gold was $US35 an ounce.  In 1980 at the end it blew off its top around 900, I think the close was a bit lower.  Anyway 35 to 900 is near enough to a ratio of 25 to 1.

This latest bull run began in 2001 at $US260 and ounce, if this run was to repeat, and many fundamentalists will say its worse economically this time, then 25 times $US260 is a price of $US6,500 an ounce.

The other commodities like oil are just that COMMODITIES,.   Gold is an alternate to cash/paper money.  What everything else is doing is showing that more and more bits of paper money is required each day to buy things.

The simple equation/comparison is no big deal, my purpose is to say that those profferring $US5,000 for gold are not being unrealistic IMVHO

And I think as we speak, we are right on top of a break to the upside for gold, so perhaps on the way.

Interesting times


----------



## MRC & Co

*A real key will be the 907.40 resistance in the August contract.  *

A very simple view and represents my stop placement.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> *A real key will be the 907.40 resistance in the August contract.  *
> 
> A very simple view and represents my stop placement.





It's already over that.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> It's already over that.




Yes, bought just over 910, sell stop at that level.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> A real key will be the 907.40 *resistance*




I'm just a newbie at this T/A stuff but if its under the current price isn't that support


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm just a newbie at this T/A stuff but if its under the current price isn't that support




907 is the resistance in this case.  To break, probably requires another close at or above this mornings.

What we do have, of significance, is the likely break of a pennant which at the top goes back to the peak in early march and a low some months before  preceeding that rise.   I think a close above $us915 in the morning will confirm that.   It was the break of such a pennant about August 06 that lead to the rise to $US1,030 this year.   So that is why, at the cross roads so to speak, some get a bit excited.

I will wait and enjoy the unfolding when it comes


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> 907 is the resistance in this case.  To break, probably requires another close at or above this mornings.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm just a newbie at this T/A stuff but if its under the current price isn't that support




I don't quiet get it.

Moved through resistance (which becomes support).  Hence, I am long, and this is where my stop is placed...........

?


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> I don't quiet get it.
> 
> Moved through resistance (which becomes support).  Hence, I am long, and this is where my stop is placed...........
> 
> ?




Moving through resistance does not always at that point become support.  It usually requires a couple of retracements to bounce off that point/level before one can regard it as support.

Anyway the break out of the flag/pennant looks like it could be a goer, as we speak.  Glad I loaded up on some more of them SBM.   Me glass of red tastes goodo.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Moving through resistance does not always at that point become support.  It usually requires a couple of retracements to bounce off that point/level before one can regard it as support.
> 
> Anyway the break out of the flag/pennant looks like it could be a goer, as we speak.  Glad I loaded up on some more of them SBM.   Me glass of red tastes goodo.




I would say it does become support, further tests, confirm and strengthen that level.  

Anyways, oil has hit all-time highs!  Gold broken out of it's trading range.  Volume looks good for this time.  Interesting night ahead.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> I would say it does become support, further tests, confirm and strengthen that level.
> 
> Anyways, oil has hit all-time highs!  Gold broken out of it's trading range.  Volume looks good for this time.  Interesting night ahead.




Yes agreed on the gold position t/a wise.  My example was the technical side of support and resistance per se. for I thought your benefit.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Yes agreed on the gold position t/a wise.  My example was the technical side of support and resistance per se. for I thought your benefit.




Thanks mate, but don't agree on the support/resistance re-test requirement.  

No support or resistance is ever a sure thing, only a level I use to trade from and place parameters.  

A break below support will become resistance for me, if it retaces back there, many will sell so they can attempt to break even, this is why you will see a bounce off resistance, only confirming what I already assume.  But I guess you already know this well, so not sure why you require a re-test.....it only offers probably a safer entry point into a trade......


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Thanks mate, but don't agree on the support/resistance re-test requirement.
> 
> No support or resistance is ever a sure thing, only a level I use to trade from and place parameters.
> 
> A break below support will become resistance for me, if it retaces back there, many will sell so they can attempt to break even, this is why you will see a bounce off resistance, only confirming what I already assume.  But I guess you already know this well, so not sure why you require a re-test.....it only offers probably a safer entry point into a trade......




Now this is way off topic.   I do not require anything.   The market move itself tells me the behaviour and I can only follow that lead.  I have in the past observed that a bounce off a certain point a few times has become good support and the opposing for resistance is equally valid.

However I see gold now rising well and a hold tonight at this level will set em going next week.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Now this is way off topic.   I do not require anything.   The market move itself tells me the behaviour and I can only follow that lead.  I have in the past observed that a bounce off a certain point a few times has become good support and the opposing for resistance is equally valid.
> 
> However I see gold now rising well and a hold tonight at this level will set em going next week.




Yes, agree, the more tests of a support/resistance, and failed, the greater the more important that level becomes.

Yes, gold is doing well tonight, what I am very interested in, is how it will do when New York comes online!  Might be a very quick move one way or the other!  Let's hope up up and away!


----------



## barrett

Urgh what a mistake - very drunken nights and internet forums shouldn't mix... they did last night though.. I apologise to anyone I offended, I actually didn't mean it.  Please ignore the post.
And now I'll attempt a more serious look at the markets!...


----------



## barrett

Looking at last night's markets, I think the performance of the gold indices compared to the broader indices was amazing - 5 or 6% up, vs. 3% down - that would seem to signal a bullish shift, along with the oil breakout.

Some support at 909-910 spot? On my chart at least, it looks like the neckline of a month-long inverted head and shoulders. 

The main challenge as I see it is the wedge resistance on the daily close in the first chart below.

The speed of the current advance does make me a bit wary for the next day or so.  But if it does close above the wedge (as it is now all of a sudden!) that should be very bullish.

The second chart is a 15-min one showing the volume spike I mentioned on the far right... on the 'up' side of the daily hammer.  This type of heavy buying spike on the right side of a hammer seems to often come in at interim lows.  

TH I'm a bit concerned that my volume data look different to yours.  Who is your data provider?  In my chart it is Norths/Alpari

I'm away for a few days, good luck everyone.


----------



## josjes

barrett said:


> Urgh what a mistake - very drunken nights and internet forums shouldn't mix... they did last night though.. I apologise to anyone I offended, I actually didn't mean it.  Please ignore the post.
> And now I'll attempt a more serious look at the markets!...




Barrett, your last post makes me LOL. Please say you meant it. . Make sure you load up physical gold before you go away for a few days, you don't want to come back and see gold shoot up to $1000.


----------



## Trembling Hand

barrett said:


> Urgh what a mistake - very drunken nights and internet forums shouldn't mix... they did last night though.. I apologise to anyone I offended, I actually didn't mean it.








barrett said:


> TH I'm a bit concerned that my volume data look different to yours.  Who is your data provider?  In my chart it is Norths/Alpari





That data is the CBOT 100oz Gold futures contract. What instrument is yours?


----------



## wayneL

Trembling Hand said:


> That data is the CBOT 100oz Gold futures contract. What instrument is yours?



COMEX (CG) is the bigger (in terms of volume) contract, and the one that should be followed for the big money's footprints. IMO


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> COMEX (CG) is the bigger (in terms of volume) contract, and the one that should be followed for the big money's footprints. IMO




GCQ8 (COMEX) open interest is ~ 250,000

ZGQ8 (CBOT) open interest is ~ 10,000


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> GCQ8 (COMEX) open interest is ~ 250,000
> 
> ZGQ8 (CBOT) open interest is ~ 10,000




LOL. do you know how many trades I have done on the little contract without knowing that. Looks a tick or two tighter. V funny. 

Although COMEX you only get 5 lines of depth ZG 10.


----------



## RobinHood

Horror story:
I was short 4 CBOT mini's on the 25th. My broker ****ed up big time and didn't fill my stops (I got off the phone with them just now and its under investigation). 

What was a 5R trade became -2.28R very very quickly 

ended up getting out of all of them at highest price of 895..


----------



## RobinHood

BTW - To all those championing Gold as HAVING to increase in value - 

I completely agree with you, but, what makes you think the monetary collapse is close as opposed to 20 - 30 - 100 years away? 

If you're wrong, you loose, bigtime. Especially those holding physicals. If anyone has read Buzzy Schwartz's book do you recall whenever he suddenly brings home suitcases of gold pending the financial collapse? 

Here check out this chart:





I used to have a historical chart of Gold vs US dollar going back to late 1800's but unfortunately I just couldn't find it. In the long-term a fiat currency has to loose its value to a commodity such as gold (or short-term if your like Zimbabwe) but what if this is just another "spike", how will you know? when will you get out? 

You could say this is "long-term", but what you are 100 years old and Gold has lost its value since you last bought it? and then you discover the fiat currency collapse is at least 30 years away?


----------



## ithatheekret

Well it happens , if it makes you feel any better , I doubt it though , I dropped $8K on a Yen option earlier on in the year , made it back , but it hurts I know . So thilly me went hard elsewhere and committed heavily and luckily got more than double the loss back , so it sorta evened itself out . But I still lost $8K in my books and it goes with the territory .

Higher low on POG confirmed techies ???? sorry had a couple of heart starters already ........ early breakfast


----------



## michael_selway

RobinHood said:


> BTW - To all those championing Gold as HAVING to increase in value -
> 
> I completely agree with you, but, what makes you think the monetary collapse is close as opposed to 20 - 30 - 100 years away?
> 
> If you're wrong, you loose, bigtime. Especially those holding physicals. If anyone has read Buzzy Schwartz's book do you recall whenever he suddenly brings home suitcases of gold pending the financial collapse?
> 
> Here check out this chart:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I used to have a historical chart of Gold vs US dollar going back to late 1800's but unfortunately I just couldn't find it. In the long-term a fiat currency has to loose its value to a commodity such as gold (or short-term if your like Zimbabwe) but what if this is just another "spike", how will you know? when will you get out?
> 
> You could say this is "long-term", but what you are 100 years old and Gold has lost its value since you last bought it? and then you discover the fiat currency collapse is at least 30 years away?




Hey that chart looks interesting

http://www.europac.net/media/Schiff-FBN-6-26-08_lg.wmv

In the above video, Peter mentions a possible DOW/Gold ratio of 1, basically that chart above is suggesting also

thx

MS

-------------------


----------



## RobinHood

Really struggling to find long-term nominal pre-1970s when US comes completely of the gold standard, but here I found something better which may make my question clearer (just look at nominal, ignore the rest).





Unless your long-term position trading this move, I don't see how your going to make money unless this uptrend is the uptrend preceding the collapse of global fiat currencies. If we have another downleg, you won't make jack. You'll be grandpah's holding gold coins which have declined in value since you last bought them and it could be another 50 years until the collapse you seek happens.

I'm not attacking here, I just would like to know the thinking behind those buying actual gold bullion or gold coins?


----------



## ithatheekret

Yes but in those years it was all open cry ! And the US had more ooompf ....

I think POG will attack 1045 this year .


----------



## explod

RobinHood said:


> I'm not attacking here, I just would like to know the thinking behind those buying actual gold bullion or gold coins?





If you are serious about your question a read over this thread for the last 12 months will put you clearly in the picture.  In fact to short cut, go over the posts to this thread of of "cuttlefish" and "silver"  mine also if you can delianate the drunken midnight blurbs here and there.

Just  on a good close morning for the gold chart


----------



## josjes

RobinHood and others who are still skeptical of gold,  who are still standing at the train station being left by the gold bull train, whilst you are still wondering when is the gold going to plunge 200% to hell why not take a read at this article. 

Take a good long look at the rise in the price of gold over the last six years (since the low of 2001)

The so-called "smart money" began to buy gold driving the price up from the $252.00 low, well into the $500's. Then the institutions began to purchase gold and that drove it up to the recent $1,033.90 peak we saw back on March 17th. That was a new all-time high just in case you want to keep records.

From there gold began the long awaited correction that would take it down to $811.00, $731.00, or the gates of hell depending on who you listened to. Declines in gold are always scary because they are based on fear, usually unfounded, and that fear leads to violent movements to the downside. *Hands up who are guilty of this ?? * :

Rallies by the way are based on greed and are almost never as volatile as declines. 

So the gold price headed down with almost no one paying attention to the fact that gold broke out from the old historical (1981) high of $850.00 and that just might be a logical place for any retracement to stop. That is often a common occurrence after a strong leg up and gold certainly had a strong leg up. No sooner said than done! Gold dipped down to 846.40, looked around for a couple of minutes and then headed back up.

Since then gold has tried to rally only to meet with persistent sellers on more than one occasion. Many took that as a sign of weakness but unfortunately many do not know what they are talking about. Each selling spree produced a series of higher lows all while each buying spree produced a series of lower highs.

Most people seem to go through life unaware of their surroundings and so they failed to realize that we saw this same exact pattern, a series of higher lows and lower highs thereby compressing price, way back in August of last year. And like August of last year, everyone was concerned that price was going to break down and fall to $500.00. In bull markets a formation whereby price is being compressed stands an 80% chance of breaking out to the upside, and gold is more bullish than the most. Today is no exception to the rule and I am absolutely convinced that gold will do the same thing. In fact, as I type the August gold is up $31.00 at $913.00 (_on Friday 27 June close up to $931_) and has in fact broken out to the upside! Just a couple of days ago gold fell $22.00 in a question of three minutes and that prompted the usual chorus of "we'll see a lower low in a week", but they were of course wrong. I told you to buy gold after the break, and again the next day, and time has proven me correct.

*I didn't just discover gold and I want you to understand that I am not a "gold bug" meaning I do not have an emotional attachment to gold, or anything else I invest in for that matter. I look at gold as the only true way I can protect or accumulate real wealth and it is the only real store of wealth. * 

_*This guy speaks the same language as me* _

I do not fear corrections in gold and I also don't blow them out of proportion. You need to understand that the numbers say that the correction in gold is over, the correction was a rather shallow 15.5%, and now gold is being accumulated and it will head higher. Much higher! Higher than even the most dyed in the wool gold bug can imagine. Today the August gold closed up $32.50 at $914.80 and clearly broke out to the upside and out of the pattern of compression. The last time gold did that it exploded for almost $100 in twelve sessions. I am convinced that gold is going higher, higher than the P&F target of $970.00, higher than the $1,033.90 March all-time high, higher than the $1,179.00 Fibonacci resistance. I see gold trading as high as $1,711.00 by this time next year and that is the same target I had three months ago. The reason for the rise is not important. What is important is that gold is going higher, as measured in any currency, and if you want to protect your wealth, you'd better own some. If fact, you'd better buy a lot.

One final word about gold stocks. I am not a lover of gold stocks and have reduced my position in half, but they broke out as well today. I just see too many problems. About one-third of a miner's costs are related to energy, and the price of energy has literally gone through the roof. Aside from that you have increased labor costs and never-ending interference from governments and environmentalists. I much prefer futures contracts or physical gold: 

Then you have the issue of the declining Dow and just how much of a drag it will be on the HUI. With the 50-dma now below the 200-dma, you have a much weaker chart than with gold or silver. My best advice is to use any significant rally in the HUI to get out of gold stocks. Stocks in general are not a good place to be and that won't change any time soon. Personally, I would not be afraid to buy gold and silver on a weekly or monthly basis because you can't go wrong over time. Gold stocks don't give me that same comfort level.

-Enrico Orlandini


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well first thing to say right now is that gold is in support on the 8hr and daily chart.

moved out of the down trend and has formed a base.

interesting to see what happens here at the top of the range. I am not making any calls yet as Oil has proved to be a real driver in the spot Gold market.

Based off other analysis I use I think spot will fall back into the range. not without a possible trust out of it first.

I think Spot will sit in the range as long as crude is making it's current drive. A move out of the range with a higher low with resistance as support will show something much more bullish. 

Oil is another that is on a road to correct as this thrust is very speculatively driven. I am not calling any tops there!

Cheers


----------



## Temjin

>Apocalypto< said:


> well first thing to say right now is that gold is in support on the 8hr and daily chart.
> 
> moved out of the down trend and has formed a base.
> 
> interesting to see what happens here at the top of the range. I am not making any calls yet as Oil has proved to be a real driver in the spot Gold market.
> 
> Based off other analysis I use I think spot will fall back into the range. not without a possible trust out of it first.
> 
> I think Spot will sit in the range as long as crude is making it's current drive. A move out of the range with a higher low with resistance as support will show something much more bullish.
> 
> Oil is another that is on a road to correct as this thrust is very speculatively driven. I am not calling any tops there!
> 
> Cheers




That is also exactly why I am still on the side line. Gold has always moved in correlation with oil. With the fact that the sentiment with oil is EXTREMELY BULLISH at the moment, and driven by more speculations (not that it is COMPLETELY driven, fundamentals still exist and strong), I have a feeling gold has yet to finish its consolidation.

Another reason is that I am waiting for a more decisive breakout of the US dollars (to the downside obviously) before committing back. The historic cycle of gold prices still points to the July/August month as consolidation periods. 

So I'm waiting, but watching if there is a change. Regardless, I'm still following my weekly signals, not quite there just yet....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> I think Spot will sit in the range as long as crude is making it's current drive. A move out of the range with a higher low with resistance as support will show something much more bullish.
> 
> Oil is another that is on a road to correct as this thrust is very speculatively driven. I am not calling any tops there!
> 
> Cheers




Trying to break the channel top tonight maybe? Or is it too soon?

Some interesting bullish data coming out, even more pertinent with gold at around 935 and oil just breaking $143. 

I notice stocks like NEM have been very uncharacteristicly strong for the last week now, and the HUI trying to break out as well.

The gold ETF's are in accumulation mode again (MACD crossing up?)



> ETF holdings are up 5% or 39 tonnes from trough levels at the end of May amid profit-taking after $1,000, according to Citigroup.
> 
> http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=55618&sn=Detail


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I thought there would be small sought of thrust. 

Till it closes out of the range and holds, I still stand by my opinion it's going to return into the range.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like a big week coming up, and gold breaking up & out? Big move so far tonight. Making the gold/oil ratio look a bit better, hopefully a disconnection.


----------



## Sean K

Oil has to correct soon wouldn't you think? Like just a bit? Surely gold will come off with it? USD rally due as well? Perhaps. And won't POG be hurt? Perhaps that's why gold has been stuck in this range, because everyone's thinking there's going to be a correction in POO and USD? 

Maybe if Israel (US) do tach nuke Iran we'll have a significant jump.

Or, maybe these things don't matter at all, and the waves are definately pointing to $845 and into the $700s. Or, perhaps the waves are arbitrary? $100 the opposite direction to the wC target, so perhaps. 

XAU looks like it could be breaking up. Lots of resistance around 200 though. Maybe equates to $950 ish POG?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Speaking of the XAU......looks like gold stocks leading gold....into the buy zone.....go NEM :bananasmi

I envisage a period where gold will do it's own thing, regardless of what oil or $USD do (disconnection) as we may be close to the next phase ie $50 daily ranges with bullish bias past & beyond $1k. Waiting for the time when gold is the only and possibly last game in town when everything else is '_worth_-less'?


----------



## explod

From Jim Sinclair's webpage, cheers to the bugs, explod:-



> Posted On: Tuesday, July 01, 2008, 2:25:00 PM EST
> 
> Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
> 
> Author: Dan Norcini
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dear Friends,
> 
> Gold began a nice recovery from yesterday's mild end-of-month/quarter induced weakness with those same funds moving quickly to re-establish longs as the new month commences. Their concerted buying blasted gold through the resistance zone marked on the chart ($935 - $940) where it was being vigorously opposed by the bullion banks.
> 
> It was fascinating watching the battle at that level as gold bounced from it repeatedly until the longs were able to recruit additional reinforcements to their cause. The influx of these fresh troops ignominiously dislodged the bullion banks from their self-appointed defensive fortifications shoving them back to a new line near the $950 level.
> 
> The impetus for the bull's victory today was the release of the ISM numbers for June. The number unexpectedly rose to 50.2 from 49.6 in May. Initially, equity traders greeted the news by driving up the stock indices while Forex traders sold down the Euro and bid up the Dollar. That enabled the gold cartel to temporarily stuff the rise in gold and hold it below the $940 level. However, as is so often the case, those who foolishly make their trading decisions based on a headline number saddled themselves with an immediate loss because they failed to look deeper into the rest of the data. What they should have paid closer attention to, and what the market did get around to looking at,  was the Index of Prices paid number. I had to double check the number to make certain that it was not a typo! It came in at 91.5, jumping from 87.0 in May and to the highest level since 1979! We all remember well what happened to gold in 1979!  The dreaded word, “STAGFLATION”, is back in vogue.
> 
> That ISM number shoved inflation fears right back onto the front burner. It also did not hurt gold for traders to then be able to look over at the price of crude oil which once again was busy doing what it seems to be doing best of late, namely, defying gravity and moving higher! As the Dollar bulls suddenly became Dollar bears, the Euro began rising. All of this served to put a stiff tailwind behind gold and pushed it to within a couple of dollars shy of $950


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> I envisage a period where gold will do it's own thing, regardless of what oil or $USD do (disconnection) as we may be close to the next phase ie $50 daily ranges with bullish bias past & beyond $1k. Waiting for the time when gold is the only and possibly last game in town when everything else is '_worth_-less'?




I still think Gold is being driven off the OIL price or at least helped. last few highs in Oil have really helped hold the Spot price.

back in the range tonight.


----------



## josjes

Alf Field EW update. He's 90% spot on his EW analysis so far. He was calling the low on 30 April at 863, so just $10 off, not bad at all. 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field070208.html

Elliott Wave Gold Update XX

Alf Field
2 Jul, 2008

Update 19 published on 30 April 2008 expressed the view that the there was a strong probability that the correction from the March 17 high of $1,033 was complete. In addition Update 19 contained the following warning:

"As will become apparent from the detailed analysis of the minor waves, there is a small possibility of a slightly lower target price of $855 in the Comex active month being achieved. This would have to happen almost immediately if it is going to occur at all."

Within 24 hours the gold price did indeed decline to $853 (London PM fixing) and $853.9 on the Comex 2nd month futures. The cash market briefly sported prices below these levels but the above levels remain the lows for these bench mark series used to monitor the market. The correction low was achieved 2 months ago but the gold price has not exhibited the sharp upward moves associated with the commencement of Large Wave III of Major Wave THREE. A "third of a third" is expected to be the most powerful of moves.

What happened? The chart below depicts the updated gold price action. The price action over the past 2 months has comprised several corrective 3 wave series which combined to form a triangle. This is not impulsive third wave action. The obvious conclusion must be that this action is part of an extended Large Wave II.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Data updated to 1 July 2008

It seems as if the market deemed the decline to the $853.0 low point to have happened too quickly. The decline encompassed only 31 London trading days. Although the required 16% magnitude of the decline had been achieved at $853.0, the market spent another 35 trading days tracing out a triangle in Small wave C, marked a-b-c-d-e between the red boundary lines above. This used up more time, thus helping to form a firmer base for the coming advance.

A triangle in this position is an unusual occurrence, but there have already been some strange corrective formations in this gold market to date. It is interesting that while the extension of the correction absorbed 35 trading days, the market respected the $853.0 low point during this additional time period and the low price was never challenged.

Once the gold price broke out of the triangle after reaching point e, the market has treated us to some notable gains, including a rise of $32 in one day, the largest one day rise in 23 years. Now that is more like "third of a third" action! This better, more positive, action in the gold price is an indication that the Large Wave III of Major Wave THREE may now be underway.

If this is correct, the market should rapidly move to new highs above the March $1,033 peak. The only word of warning is that corrections can sometimes be extremely complex and are not over until they are over. Nevertheless, the signs look positive that we are finally in Large III of Major THREE.

We can now make the assumption that the low for Large II was at $853.0 on the London fixings. This allows us to update the template for Major THREE. To start with, this is the template that was published in Update 18 on 24 March 2008:

That template forecast a low for Large wave II of $850, so the actual result of $853 is remarkably close to that forecast. The following updated template is not much different from the above one because the low for Large II was very close to the forecast :

Revised Wave Labels

For sake of clarity, the revised naming format for the various waves is outlined once again:

The bull market consists of five Major waves designated ONE, TWO, THREE, FOUR and FIVE. Major TWO and Major FOUR are corrective waves with a 25%-30% magnitude of anticipated decline.

Major upward impulse waves, ONE, THREE and FIVE will each contain 5 Large waves designated in Roman Numerals, I, II, III, IV and V. Large II and Large IV are corrective waves with a 16% magnitude of decline, give or take a couple of percentage points.

Large waves I, III and V will each contain 5 Small waves designated 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Small waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves with approximately 8% magnitudes of decline.

Small waves 1, 3 and 5 will each contain five Minor waves designated i, ii, iii, iv and v. Minor waves ii and iv are corrective waves each declining 4%, give or take 1-2%.

The gold market has just completed Large wave II of Major wave THREE. It is currently in the process of commencing Large III of Major wave THREE, which should be a strong upward impulsive wave that could reach to above $1,500 before it is completed. (See the details in the Template above.)

These forecasts are based on the rhythms detected in the gold market during its early stages.

It is too early to produce a template for the small waves within Large Wave III. At this stage all we can say is that there should be two 8% corrections within Large Wave III on its way to the predicted level of $1,572. The first of these 8% corrections is unlikely to occur before the current small wave exceeds the prior high of $1,033.

Alf Field


----------



## josjes

Alf Field EW update. He's 90% spot on his EW analysis so far. He was calling the low on 30 April at 863, so just $10 off, not bad at all. 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field070208.html

Elliott Wave Gold Update XX

Alf Field
2 Jul, 2008

Update 19 published on 30 April 2008 expressed the view that the there was a strong probability that the correction from the March 17 high of $1,033 was complete. In addition Update 19 contained the following warning:

"As will become apparent from the detailed analysis of the minor waves, there is a small possibility of a slightly lower target price of $855 in the Comex active month being achieved. This would have to happen almost immediately if it is going to occur at all."

Within 24 hours the gold price did indeed decline to $853 (London PM fixing) and $853.9 on the Comex 2nd month futures. The cash market briefly sported prices below these levels but the above levels remain the lows for these bench mark series used to monitor the market. The correction low was achieved 2 months ago but the gold price has not exhibited the sharp upward moves associated with the commencement of Large Wave III of Major Wave THREE. A "third of a third" is expected to be the most powerful of moves.

What happened? The chart below depicts the updated gold price action. The price action over the past 2 months has comprised several corrective 3 wave series which combined to form a triangle. This is not impulsive third wave action. The obvious conclusion must be that this action is part of an extended Large Wave II.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Data updated to 1 July 2008

It seems as if the market deemed the decline to the $853.0 low point to have happened too quickly. The decline encompassed only 31 London trading days. Although the required 16% magnitude of the decline had been achieved at $853.0, the market spent another 35 trading days tracing out a triangle in Small wave C, marked a-b-c-d-e between the red boundary lines above. This used up more time, thus helping to form a firmer base for the coming advance.

A triangle in this position is an unusual occurrence, but there have already been some strange corrective formations in this gold market to date. It is interesting that while the extension of the correction absorbed 35 trading days, the market respected the $853.0 low point during this additional time period and the low price was never challenged.

Once the gold price broke out of the triangle after reaching point e, the market has treated us to some notable gains, including a rise of $32 in one day, the largest one day rise in 23 years. Now that is more like "third of a third" action! This better, more positive, action in the gold price is an indication that the Large Wave III of Major Wave THREE may now be underway.

If this is correct, the market should rapidly move to new highs above the March $1,033 peak. The only word of warning is that corrections can sometimes be extremely complex and are not over until they are over. Nevertheless, the signs look positive that we are finally in Large III of Major THREE.

We can now make the assumption that the low for Large II was at $853.0 on the London fixings. This allows us to update the template for Major THREE. To start with, this is the template that was published in Update 18 on 24 March 2008:

That template forecast a low for Large wave II of $850, so the actual result of $853 is remarkably close to that forecast. The following updated template is not much different from the above one because the low for Large II was very close to the forecast :

Revised Wave Labels

For sake of clarity, the revised naming format for the various waves is outlined once again:

The bull market consists of five Major waves designated ONE, TWO, THREE, FOUR and FIVE. Major TWO and Major FOUR are corrective waves with a 25%-30% magnitude of anticipated decline.

Major upward impulse waves, ONE, THREE and FIVE will each contain 5 Large waves designated in Roman Numerals, I, II, III, IV and V. Large II and Large IV are corrective waves with a 16% magnitude of decline, give or take a couple of percentage points.

Large waves I, III and V will each contain 5 Small waves designated 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Small waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves with approximately 8% magnitudes of decline.

Small waves 1, 3 and 5 will each contain five Minor waves designated i, ii, iii, iv and v. Minor waves ii and iv are corrective waves each declining 4%, give or take 1-2%.

The gold market has just completed Large wave II of Major wave THREE. It is currently in the process of commencing Large III of Major wave THREE, which should be a strong upward impulsive wave that could reach to above $1,500 before it is completed. (See the details in the Template above.)

These forecasts are based on the rhythms detected in the gold market during its early stages.

It is too early to produce a template for the small waves within Large Wave III. At this stage all we can say is that there should be two 8% corrections within Large Wave III on its way to the predicted level of $1,572. The first of these 8% corrections is unlikely to occur before the current small wave exceeds the prior high of $1,033.

Alf Field


----------



## CamKawa

Just blown the dust off my POG chart and noticed that open interest has fallen off a cliff.

"Increasing open interest shows that there is strength behind the current price movement, and decreasing open interest shows that there is a weakening of the current price movement. For example, increasing open interest along with increasing prices indicates that the upward price movement could continue, but decreasing open interest along with increasing prices indicates that the upward price movement may be about to reverse."


----------



## explod

Although the price of gold is up 43% for the last 12 months it has been largely ignored by the investment community.  The other factor is that it is regarded by many as part of the commodities sector, which on current sentiment is out of favour.   This, in my view, is wrong and its proper place can be explored on many good sites (and back on this thread) if one puts the subject through Google.

The announcements of IMF sales, CB sale agreements and spin put on news releases such as Nadler. the Senior analyst of Kitco, continue to worry investers at the edges.   All this is doing is presenting greater opportunities for those who understand and of course may well be part institutional loading.

I believe the selldown of many very good intermediate gold stocks has been well overdone but seeing some uptick to LGL and NCM in the last week indicates that sentiment, when it does change to gold for itself, will surprise very much to its upside.  The huge spike in 1980 was realised by most after the event.  Those of us that have been close to this thread for the last year or so need no convincing, but would be keen to hear what others think.


----------



## scarfie1

what the heck just happened? The price just fell $20 within about 2 minutes


----------



## wayneL

scarfie1 said:


> what the heck just happened? The price just fell $20 within about 2 minutes




US Jobs report... everything is moving.


----------



## MRC & Co

wayneL said:


> US Jobs report... everything is moving.




Yeh, and the moves are very very weird!

Apparently it met expectations, so the indices head up, then they retreat!  Close will definatley be the big test, though I can't imagine many of the big guns coming in before the extended weekend (perhaps we will close in the red once again, maybe further than expected............), but it doesn't look like all the bad news has been factored in yet.

I still see our market testing 4000 over the coming financial year.  

Nice avatar, quiet appropriate!


----------



## Temjin

scarfie1 said:


> what the heck just happened? The price just fell $20 within about 2 minutes




Well, the USD had a massive rally last night, and it's negatively correlates with gold prices. Oil somehow managed to hold above the $140 level, so probably provided some support for gold. Technically wise, gold just touched the 50% fib level and probably didn't break through it last night. 

I should have got in eariler when it touched the 200 MA level once, now it's more and more certain that it will hold above the USD $850 support.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Well, the USD had a massive rally last night, and it's negatively correlates with gold prices. Oil somehow managed to hold above the $140 level, so probably provided some support for gold. Technically wise, gold just touched the 50% fib level and probably didn't break through it last night.
> 
> I should have got in eariler when it touched the 200 MA level once, now it's more and more certain that it will hold above the USD $850 support.




Yep, agree.  Though the US dollar rally was not massive compared to other recent moves and as it all happened on very flimsy data will probably be short lived.   I do not prescribe oil as being a major part, it is just one of those things in short supply so is going up for two reason, supply and currency weaknesses.


----------



## josjes

GOLD:OIL ratio is exshibiting encouraging sign for Gold. With the trouble brewing for the Financial in the US, we are likely to see the ratio jump again in the next 2 months, just like Jan-Mar period when it was perceived that we were having financial meltfown. 

Look closely Jan - Mar period and compare it with the current one. BKX index in the US is sitting at pre-1998 low. Soon we will hear one of the big banks being bailed out by the Fed. Fannie and Freddie are going into oblivion.

Gold will very likely to start diverge with POO and leave its poor cousin image behind.

Another sign:

Note the Gold ETF (GLD) sucked down another 12 tonnes of bullion yesterday. With GLD's holdings on track for new highs soon, the price of gold can't be far behind in making a similar move. This chart says it all."

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/A1. T.woo/lance 1.jpg


----------



## josjes

60 min charts clearly breaking resistance. Targeting 947 plus then 960 ?


----------



## barrett

It is looking bullish... there are a few hurdles just overhead - see channel resistance in purple and particularly, the blue resistance.  If there's a break through to 955 in the coming week or so, from there it looks like blue sky to 1033.
[lines coming from underneath are 200 and 300DMA]


----------



## Sean K

barrett said:


> It is looking bullish...



Yep, GLD, HUI and XAU all looking like potential breakouts, or approaching, but there is a pile of resistance sitting there, as you say. POG breaking $950 might be the catalyst. If they break through.....


----------



## Sean K

$950 looks important to others too. Pretty obvious though.

0918 [Dow Jones] Spot gold last bid US$945.40/oz, extending sharp rise that has seen it rise US$18 from NY opening, although off high around US$948. Host of factors helped gold higher, including stronger crude oil price, as supply concerns worry traders; Iran missile tests increase tensions in Middle East; weaker USD; mortgage market concerns in U.S., equities volatility. ScotiaMocatta says move "very bullish", eyes US$950 as significant resistance. "The stars may be in line for a move through US$950," although breach of this needs some conviction for trend to stick, as weak tests in past have led to nothing but subsequent decline, it says. (RCB)


----------



## josjes

Just to add to my previous post re:Gold:Oil ratio. 
This is the long term chart back from 1990.


Could be a big double bottom in there,second low higher than first,looks like the POG action in 2000-2002.

Lots of gold out there swimming naked,so that chart really compares POO to an entity that is of a fuzzy nature.

So the market are now starting to the rude awakening we are in the cusp of the mother of all bear market, what do you think the ratio will go from here onwards ?
From the end of 2000 till 2002 when we are in the midst of bear market, the ration shoot up from 7 to 15. 
So now it's been cooked,in other words,and it will return to the mean,at around 15

But first it went overshoot downward, because it always happens that way.
And I am saying we have seen this bottom of gold to oil. 

Let's see Oil 100-110, Gold 1500-1600 ??


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Just to add to my previous post re:Gold:Oil ratio.
> This is the long term chart back from 1990.
> 
> 
> Could be a big double bottom in there,second low higher than first,looks like the POG action in 2000-2002.
> 
> Lots of gold out there swimming naked,so that chart really compares POO to an entity that is of a fuzzy nature.
> 
> So the market are now starting to the rude awakening we are in the cusp of the mother of all bear market, what do you think the ratio will go from here onwards ?
> From the end of 2000 till 2002 when we are in the midst of bear market, the ration shoot up from 7 to 15.
> So now it's been cooked,in other words,and it will return to the mean,at around 15
> 
> But first it went overshoot downward, because it always happens that way.
> And I am saying we have seen this bottom of gold to oil.
> 
> Let's see Oil 100-110, Gold 1500-1600 ??



What?


----------



## explod

I am not convinced with the gold oil relationship.

Some of the eastern states, Iran in particular, are refusing $US for oil, accepting Euros or gold only, so that is having some effect.

Oil is a commodity, and at the moment a necessity.

The gold price is more sensitive to the US dollar as it is an alternative form of exchange and a hedge against the risk of stagflation (money shortage) and the devaluation of money as they print more to try and stay afloat.

Over the last 7 years the exact mirror reflection of the US dollar and the gold price is very convincing.

It would be good if someone technical could post a $US index and gold chart for the last ten years.

It will then hit home like the proverbial.

In the short term, gold could go anyway, but post US election make sure you are on the train as it leaves.  IMVHO of course.


----------



## barrett

Great stuff.. the Gold : Dow ratio chart over the past century is already a bit of a forum favourite.. gold : oil is another example of ratio analysis, with a nice trendline support in there as well suggesting that the ratio has reached or is approaching a lower extreme.  It appears _likely_ from the chart that gold has a lot of catching up to do relative to oil.   The very brave (or slightly crazy) may even like to trade the spread (long gold, short oil)

What exactly do you mean by gold that's 'swimming naked'?

BTW stockcharts don't have data for this pre-1990 do they?



josjes said:


> Just to add to my previous post re:Gold:Oil ratio.
> This is the long term chart back from 1990.
> 
> 
> Could be a big double bottom in there,second low higher than first,looks like the POG action in 2000-2002.
> 
> Lots of gold out there swimming naked,so that chart really compares POO to an entity that is of a fuzzy nature.
> 
> So the market are now starting to the rude awakening we are in the cusp of the mother of all bear market, what do you think the ratio will go from here onwards ?
> From the end of 2000 till 2002 when we are in the midst of bear market, the ration shoot up from 7 to 15.
> So now it's been cooked,in other words,and it will return to the mean,at around 15
> 
> But first it went overshoot downward, because it always happens that way.
> And I am saying we have seen this bottom of gold to oil.
> 
> Let's see Oil 100-110, Gold 1500-1600 ??


----------



## josjes

What the ??? I just left the screen for a few hours and the price is flying $20.
Whoohoo,  $80 in 10 days, now this is what I called Large Wave III of Major Wave Three (of Alf Field's count). $1033 doesn't seem too far away.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> What the ??? I just left the screen for a few hours and the price is flying $20.
> Whoohoo,  $80 in 10 days, now this is what I called Large Wave III of Major Wave Three (of Alf Field's count). $1033 doesn't seem too far away.



I thought this was a wC down through $845 into the $700s.


----------



## Sean K

Interesting that the HUI is up 4.5% as the market crumbles. Gold stocks moving with POG. Nice, but is it time for a decoupling? I expected gold stocks to move with the market for a while for some reason. Perhaps this is just an anomaly?

I was thinking it might break through 460 with POG through 960, pending general market conditions. Maybe it's happening. Intra day, too early to call.


----------



## Sean K

GLD maybe breaking up.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> I expected gold stocks to move with the market for a while for some reason. Perhaps this is just an anomaly?





Most general stocks are down around the 20 to 30% mark  (Banks etc).   Many of the gold stocks have been pummelled 60 to 120% of recent times.   A lot to do with financial press jawboning and talking up the US dollar.   

So I believe gold stocks will run back quickly and this time when gold breaks the high of $US1030 the decoupling will be clear and the alternative for investment seekers picked up on more generally.

The US dollar dropped below support overnight and with the Dow continuing to weaken on the flood of continued financial carnage I expect gold to find its feet soon now.  Had always said after the US Presidential election but I think they are losing it now.

Notice the one denomiator that is clear,  oil did not move much overnight but the UD dollar dropped.


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Notice the one denomiator that is clear,  oil did not move much overnight but the UD dollar dropped.



Very wrong!
Oil hit a record intra-day high overnight, but failed to hold the strong gains.
In fact oil has had a stellar few days, as the chart below indicates.
In percentage terms the week's rally of oil - from its lowest to highest price -has outstripped that of gold.

If you are going to make a point, it's a good idea to get it right.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> Very wrong!
> Oil hit a record intra-day high overnight, but failed to hold the strong gains.
> In fact oil has had a stellar few days, as the chart below indicates.
> In percentage terms the week's rally of oil - from its lowest to highest price -has outstripped that of gold.
> 
> If you are going to make a point, it's a good idea to get it right.





Fair enough, I look more at closing price.  The jump in oil was greater the previous night and tapered off last night, whereas gold ploughed right on.

As a long term investor I do not measure to the inch, so apologies Red


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Fair enough, I look more at closing price.  The jump in oil was greater the previous night and tapered off last night, whereas gold ploughed right on.



What I believe is important is that the link between gold and oil remains in place.  One may lead or lag the other on a daily basis, but their short term strongly positive correlations are regularly responsible for large price movements.

From a hedging perspective sharp movements in the greenback will precipitate similarly sharp movements in oil in the present environment; and seems a more reliable play that speculating on gold.  Whereas gold seems better played against movements in the DOW.  

In both cases the weakness of the greenback, which will continue for a considerable time, shall ensure that gold and oil plays are amongst the safest medium to longer term investing approaches.


----------



## cuttlefish

Fannie and Freddie are coming home to roost.  This is something I was anticipating but had started to believe (with all the positive spin around) wasn't going to happen.  The most obvious inflation hedges are gold and oil.  Oil will be the early winner but when the tectonic shifts occur gold will show its colours imo.


----------



## M34N

Gold now at $965~, broke through the $950 resistance and held near the session highs, where to now? I vaguely remember $980 being mentioned as the next resistance level, then I guess it's the all-time high of $1030?

Personally I feel this will be the next leg up and we'll easily hit the all-time high, given the Dow keeps up its free-fall, the US dollar index looks doomed too, lost over 0.8% Friday and nearing its 52 week low of 70.7, look at the pattern that happened in Dec-Mar, very similar to Apr-Jul:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

rederob said:


> What I believe is important is that the link between gold and oil remains in place.  One may lead or lag the other on a daily basis, but their short term strongly positive correlations are regularly responsible for large price movements.
> 
> From a hedging perspective sharp movements in the greenback will precipitate similarly sharp movements in oil in the present environment; and seems a more reliable play that speculating on gold.  Whereas gold seems better played against movements in the DOW.
> 
> In both cases the weakness of the greenback, which will continue for a considerable time, shall ensure that gold and oil plays are amongst the safest medium to longer term investing approaches.




A link between gold & oil or a link to the common unit both are valued in? There's not been much correlation between the 2 for the last 6 months at least going by a cursory glance at a comparison of the 2.

Oil is or will be irrelevant as far as gold is concerned as we are near generational event(s) which will see gold go up & oil go down due to deteriorating global dynamics.

A nice cup forming, ready for August? Back to bed.......when will things not be 'valued' in depreciating world currency $USD? When will the world capitulate?

Looking good for the ultimate pairs trade - long gold, short $AU??


----------



## CanOz

I heard on the Bloomie the other week that the correlation between gold and oil was indeed alive and well, although gold was in effect lagging oil. The interviewee was a gold bull and was expecting gold to make a run to basically catch up to oils run.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## cuttlefish

Looks like alls well in lala land.  Two of the biggest financial institutions in America need bailing out and thats cause for Dow futures and USD to rise.  

Y'all move along now, everythings as hunky as good 'ol apple pie over here - you want a US dollar? - there's plenty more out the back.


----------



## rederob

Uncle Festivus said:


> A link between gold & oil or a link to the common unit both are valued in? There's not been much correlation between the 2 for the last 6 months at least going by a cursory glance at a comparison of the 2.



You are right UF.
Correlations break down.
I indicated what what I expected in the "oil" thread in January/February:

However, the longer term correlation is still positive and will continue to "support" each of these commodities for the next few years.
I have to agree, also, that gold will run ahead of oil in the medium term as oil prices are nearing a level where demand destruction will set a temporary price plateau.


----------



## So_Cynical

18 month US Oil v US Gold....gold is clearly lagging.

The up and down relationship is still there but the gap is only just now settling.


----------



## cuttlefish

The response in the US is looking a little more measured now, dow flat and gold strong.   Interesting times ahead as this continues to snowball. I don't see a housing recovery happening there any time soon and a continued erosion of both property values as well as the economy will lead to more erosion of the mortgage assets being swapped to the fed for money (and thus held by the fed).   It will be interesting to see where this stops - though in the short term this move by the fed will have the effect of sweeping things under the carpet for one more round and so possibly have a short term stabilising effect but longer term it will be negative for the USD to have more money in the system backed by poor quality assets.


----------



## subaru69

Being relatively new to all this I'm getting a bit confused.

With these assumptions:
1. Gold should go up (for a variety of reasons)
2. A$ getting stronger
3. Decoupling of US$ from commodities (in med-long term)

Does this mean that it's GOOD to buy gold/gold miners or it's BAD because as the Aussie gets stronger the value of gold (for the same price in US$) goes down.  Then what happens if commodities cut away from the $US?

Can someone smarter than me please comment.


----------



## ithatheekret

A further close above 965 would be good .

But ..... I've got the last 1030 and up to 1033 area as resistance , and believe that the 1045 area is a hidden pivot , that will be reflected in the ensuing runs .

USD is only just seeing a little strength tonight so far , probably thanks to Hank ........

Skippy has manage 97's , a month late on my call and still 100 pips to go on the 98 count . GBP is holding up well though , it will be interesting to see if the Euro can get back up and then past 1.5965 , it looks as though they want it below 1.59 at present ..............

Well it certainly looks like the ugly news has started to arrive now ..... and the greenback strengthened on Freddie and Fannie divorce settlement .

I'm still waiting to see the Dow put at foot through the 11000 plank and it will be interesting to see where oil settles on a shelf this time round .........


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> GLD, HUI and XAU all looking like potential breakouts, or approaching, but there is a pile of resistance sitting there, as you say. POG breaking $950 might be the catalyst. If they break through.....






kennas said:


> GLD maybe breaking up.



GLD looks to have broken.

XAU currently testing $200 after making it's way through the $195-98 Great Wall. 

Someone wake up the spec gold sector! 

Wonder if this momentum can continue.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> GLD looks to have broken.
> 
> Someone wake up the spec gold sector!
> 
> Wonder if this momentum can continue.




Has anyone noticed silver lately, as always it indicates and leads the upticks.  

But the key is the weakening dollar and gold as a stable alternative to paper money which is being reduced to trash off the printing presses.

The momentum, one can only follow in its wake.   The little fry, well apart from SBM the volume (volume is the bread of the market) has been very low so any interest will have effects.


----------



## cuttlefish

subaru69 said:


> Being relatively new to all this I'm getting a bit confused.
> 
> With these assumptions:
> 1. Gold should go up (for a variety of reasons)
> 2. A$ getting stronger
> 3. Decoupling of US$ from commodities (in med-long term)
> 
> Does this mean that it's GOOD to buy gold/gold miners or it's BAD because as the Aussie gets stronger the value of gold (for the same price in US$) goes down.  Then what happens if commodities cut away from the $US?
> 
> Can someone smarter than me please comment.





nobody can advise you on what is a good or bad thing to do - i.e. you have to read and make your own judgement - but we can express opinions.

My view is that the printing of massive amounts of money backed by dubious quality debt has a twofold effect - it undermines confidence in the USD as an asset - it is no longer AAA rated debt backed by quality productivity but is now a minefield of junk debt.  The secondary effect is that it creates a USD supply that will be inflationary inside the US and again has the effect of creating an oversuppply of USD investments which is deflationary for the US dollar.  Thirdly by not taking the pain early and quickly it will prolong the recessionary impact of the US malinvestment in sub-prime mortgages and construction of property for no purpose.  

Thus at some stage a flight of capital away from the USD into more tangible investments is likely to occur (note this is _opinion_ only).  Tangible investments may be other currencies, other commodities, oil or gold.  History shows us that when people are very unsure about the stabilty of a currency and/or an economy or government then gold takes the limelight.

Thus my view is that the current situation will have an effect of devaluing all currencies - primarily because the USD is also a reserve currency.  So the USD will fall, but the flight of massive amounts of capital out of the USD into the very small pool of gold investments that are available will cause the gold price to rise much faster than the USD will fall.

How gold juniors will fare depends entirely on the randomness of the market, and when or whether sentiment takes hold - so if you are an investor of my ilk you are looking for investments that will give a return (i.e. generate cashflow/dividends or become a cashbox) regardless of what the market decides - that means quality explorers with a clear path to production or new producers with reasonable reserves, good prospects for increasing their reserves and resources and operating margins that can withstand some input cost increases and production/operating delays/issues, and that also have strong cash positions.

Short summary - in my view if/when the gold run starts the price will rise faster than the USD  will fall because there will be many fleeing the USD room through the door into the gold room and the gold room is much smaller than the USD room.   At some point the market will no longer ignore a running gold price and it will look attractive for investors fleeing the USD to put money into stocks that can give them the gold they are after by pulling it out of the ground.

If things get bad enough a paradigm shift can occur - at the moment we price things (gold, oil etc.) in terms of the USD and think of 'money' as the valuable thing.  Once upon a time long ago people viewed 'gold' as the valuable thing and the money was only a representative of the gold that backed it.  We've come along with the money illusion and that has allowed the USD bubble to grow to the extent that it has.

Now there's a ramble for the morning.


----------



## josjes

My post on 9 June: 



josjes said:


> As a long termer (1-3 yr holder), I loaded up physical Gold (buy the dip) since last April at 868, 880, and today 902 .
> Gold TA always looks worst at the bottom, but it almost always surprise on the upside. Just keep it simple TA wise, 65 week MA has never been broken since the bull run 2001, it is now sitting at 786. In two months time it will be sitting at $840-850. IMO unlikely to drop trhu 700 let alone 600 as some members predicted in this forum.
> 
> With reports of the biggest jobless increase in over two decades, the largest housing bust since the Great Depression, Contagion spreading across the banking sector, BKX (Banking Index) broke through 5 year support level to the 2003 March level, Bernanke would not dare to increase rates as the severely understated economic contraction will intensify and the downward sliding economic snowball, gathering momentum, will likely burst into a banking/financial system collapse.
> 
> Helicopter Ben's recent "strong US dollar" talk is just that -- "talk", so don't expect any change from current policy.



ALWAYS keep the big picture at the forefront of your mind, others are just distractions guarantee to make you lose your position and money.  

US BKX banking index dropped another 8% last night to 1996 level with no bottom in sight. 

It is not too late to buy GOLD now. Instead of the usual seasonal weekness of summer, gold will have its parabolic run in July/August and continue thru to December. People are scared stiff of the banking run. In Gold we trust in this period of financial turmoil.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> My post on 9 June:
> 
> ALWAYS keep the big picture at the forefront of your mind, others are just distractions guarantee to make you lose your position and money.
> 
> US BKX banking index dropped another 8% last night to 1996 level with no bottom in sight.
> 
> It is not too late to buy GOLD now. Instead of the usual seasonal weekness of summer, gold will have its parabolic run in July/August and continue thru to December. People are scared stiff of the banking run. In Gold we trust in this period of financial turmoil.



Nice work josjes. 

There was a lot of talk about a much larger correction and you had your plan.

Be aware though, that not everyone's a LONG term investor, and there's nothing wrong with that!


----------



## subaru69

cuttlefish said:


> nobody can advise you on what is a good or bad thing to do - i.e. you have to read and make your own judgement - but we can express opinions.
> Now there's a ramble for the morning.




Thanks for both the opinion and ramble :
I could not work out why gold was so good before, only from the cliche of holding gold when everything turns pear-shaped.  It always seemed that when gold went up, the $US moved ~ the same % thus wiping out any real increase.
I wonder when the world will bite the bullet and start valueing commodities in Euro's.  Jay-Z already has...

*Rapper Jay-Z dissing the dollar*

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7097736.stm


----------



## M34N

subaru69 said:


> *Rapper Jay-Z dissing the dollar*
> 
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7097736.stm




lol that is genuinely funny.

Notice the AU vs US dollar as well, only another 2c to parity! US dollar is really looking bad lately, like I posted a few pages back with the US dollar index nearing its 52-week low, probably going to continue for at least a few more weeks, if not months.


----------



## Temjin

josjes said:


> It is not too late to buy GOLD now. Instead of the usual seasonal weekness of summer, gold will have its parabolic run in July/August and continue thru to December. People are scared stiff of the banking run. In Gold we trust in this period of financial turmoil.




I would not automatically assume that the usual seasonal weakness will not come into play this time. A large percentage of gold demand comes from consumers (not investment) anyway, so don't be so quick to rule them out just yet. Mid of July to End of July always result in a decent pull back or consolidation at minimum over the past several years. The odds are against gold will reach new high without taking a short breath. 

Regardless, it is extremely easy to justify for long term bullish in gold, but if you were adding in to your existing positions, it would be better not to try to buy at the short term top/strength. I'm just waiting to add in more, missed the last one.  Was not as alert over the past several weeks due to study commitment.


----------



## josjes

Previous resistance of 952/3 will turn as strong support. Why the support is so strong? Because it was passed with ease. IMO, last night/today was the last buy at US$960-970 before it reaches 1000. 

Gold is not going to put in a lower low and gold is not going to go away in May (or July or August for that matter). What gold is going to do is rally. Last Thursday and Friday’s break out to the upside left what was strong resistance at 945 in the dust and will challenge the 999.40 resistance without any significant setbacks. 
IMHO gold will reach a minimum price target of $1200 with no more than 8% correction reaction.

DYODD


----------



## MRC & Co

Why so sure about the run this time josjes?

While in the medium-long term I agree.  1200+ easily, cannot say it won't retace more than 8% with this volatility.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Previous resistance of 952/3 will turn as strong support. Why the support is so strong? Because it was passed with ease. IMO, last night/today was the last buy at US$960-970 before it reaches 1000.
> 
> Gold is not going to put in a lower low and gold is not going to go away in May (or July or August for that matter). What gold is going to do is rally. Last Thursday and Friday’s break out to the upside left what was strong resistance at 945 in the dust and will challenge the 999.40 resistance without any significant setbacks.
> IMHO gold will reach a minimum price target of $1200 with no more than 8% correction reaction.
> 
> DYODD



These 'will do this' and 'will do that' statements are fraught with danger, and are bound to end in egg on one's face. In one sence I hope you get splattered with ovum and membranes, but I'm holding too much LGL and NCM to be completely happy about that.


----------



## LeeTV

From the research I have done on the future price of gold imho it should break the psychological level of $1000 in the next few weeks with silver hot on it's heels to break $20. The recent turmoil in the market is driving investors in to hard asset-based investments. Rumours of US or Israel preparing to attack Iran is also boosting support for gold and silver as a safe haven.


----------



## refined silver

kennas said:


> I thought this was a wC down through $845 into the $700s.




So, did a certain fellow who studied the waves. He got pretty aggressive and abusive with anyone who disagreed with him when Au was around $850. Look forward to reading his humble apology which will be graciously accepted.

Gold has hit $990, it might take a little while to take out $1000 decisively and then continue on its way as the financial system melts down. 

Sorry Kennas, disagree about being more dogmatic with language. While no-one here is God and knows the future, I have a fair bit of my net worth on the fact that gold (and silver) are going up. It's not a gamble, it has a lot of research, study and knowledge behind it, and while I'm not predicting the next hour, next day, or even next week, I will say gold will be higher next year, the same as it has every year since 2001, and I have no trouble saying it with a lot of conviction either. There is a long way to go.


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> So, did a certain fellow who studied the waves. He got pretty aggressive and abusive with anyone who disagreed with him when Au was around $850. Look forward to reading his humble apology which will be graciously accepted.
> 
> Gold has hit $990, it might take a little while to take out $1000 decisively and then continue on its way as the financial system melts down.
> 
> Sorry Kennas, disagree about being more dogmatic with language. While no-one here is God and knows the future, I have a fair bit of my net worth on the fact that gold (and silver) are going up. It's not a gamble, it has a lot of research, study and knowledge behind it, and while I'm not predicting the next hour, next day, or even next week, I will say gold will be higher next year, the same as it has every year since 2001, and I have no trouble saying it with a lot of conviction either. There is a long way to go.




Agree wholeheartedly Refined silver.  I am likewise invested to the hilt in gold and silver for the same reasons.   Gold is up 45% just this last 12 months.  As chart or trend followers what more do some expect.  Not only that the fundamentals to which I have studied for years through and through have screamed recession and loss of fiat currency values.

And as for the other little matter, he in fact sent me very nasty PM's because I disagreed with him on the direction of the US dollar some time back.

Chickens are coming home to roost.

And just my humble opinion based on a lot of facts.


----------



## MRC & Co

refined silver said:


> So, did a certain fellow who studied the waves. He got pretty aggressive and abusive with anyone who disagreed with him when Au was around $850. Look forward to reading his humble apology which will be graciously accepted.




lol, I think Kennas comment was said tongue in cheek.  At least that was my take.  

One thing on the EW analysis which always got me, was in this market environment, one would logically, from a global macro perspective, expect if the markets take a hit, the POG will rise, or vice-versa, right?  As one is used to hedge the other.  Whilst POG moves in correlation with POO, the other (broader indices) is inversely correlated.  At least that is the current link, for obvious reasons.

So why was EW pointing down for BOTH the POG and the broader indices?   

Though with this volatility, POG could be back sub 900 before we know it, so the "I told you so" statements are definately always very risky.


----------



## barrett

Sure has been a happy week for gold bugs... perhaps not so happy for Elliott Wave International (Bob Prechter) subscribers, who were holding short for a drop into the $700s.. I guess they'll be parting with a little more than the $60/mo subscription fee!!

In the short term there are a few signals that gold could be due for a breather, maybe down to mid 900's?.. On the hourly gold chart below, a support channel was broken last night, as oil sold off on high volume.    On the oil daily chart below, a strong channel formed over several months. Oil tried but failed to hit the top of the channel and is now close to support after last night's selloff.  Quality oil stocks like XOM (Exxon) and COP (Conoco Ph) have been falling steadily in recent weeks as oil rallied, but they really tanked hard last night.  That often suggests trouble to come in oil.

Of course the selloff in oil stocks _could_ just be collateral damage from the sharemarket.  Anyway the oil channel support has my attention... a bounce on high volume could actually be a buying opportunity.  But a break of that support would probably bring in some serious technical selling.

Gold really outperformed oil over the past week.  I suspect the reason is that predictions of 100+ small/medium US bank failures over the next 12 months have now moved into mainstream commentary as the Indymac bank collapsed.  If I was an American with $100K+ cash savings, I would be very afraid of holding my money in the bank.  I still believe the longer term move into gold is driven by people's savings losing purchasing power at a greater rate each year - but this week - and maybe for months to come - it may not be about that, but something more serious.. fear of complete loss of savings capital.  This factor is not directly linked to oil, and maybe this will be the 'catch-up' factor for gold.


----------



## MRC & Co

barrett said:


> Sure If I was an American with $100K+ cash savings, I would be very afraid of holding my money in the bank.  I still believe the longer term move into gold is driven by people's savings losing purchasing power at a greater rate each year - but this week - and maybe for months to come - it may not be about that, but something more serious.. fear of complete loss of savings capital.  This factor is not directly linked to oil, and maybe this will be the 'catch-up' factor for gold.




Good to see you back mate.

Yeh, this is the decoupling theory of a few in the thread.  While I don't see it happening anytime over the short-term, it is one possibility further out.

Until I see images in the Western world similar to those I remember coming out of Argentina quiet some years back (a very real run on the banks), then I can't imagine decoupling taking place.  If it does, I am sure the charts will show that up.  I still think the POO will play a large role in the POG, though of course, gold does have room to move within the traditional ratio, but still nothing to suggest complete decoupling and a shift towards a replacement of fiat currencies.


----------



## josjes

Ok, have to admit being bullish on Gold is a bet against US Dollar, stocks, even AUS dollar, and the banks.

If you buy Apple or Google, people will not hesitate to brag about it, why do I have the feeling if gold surge to $3000, $4000 it would be a different story ? 

I am merely trying to protect my asset, my hard-earned money contrary to the main stream investment.  I see that few people on this gold forum have seen the writing on the walls and taken steps to protect their assets. Everyone has the same opportunities to do so for the last 2 months or year.


----------



## barrett

MRC & Co said:


> Good to see you back mate.
> 
> Yeh, this is the decoupling theory of a few in the thread.  While I don't see it happening anytime over the short-term, it is one possibility further out.
> 
> Until I see images in the Western world similar to those I remember coming out of Argentina quiet some years back (a very real run on the banks), then I can't imagine decoupling taking place.  If it does, I am sure the charts will show that up.  I still think the POO will play a large role in the POG, though of course, gold does have room to move within the traditional ratio, but still nothing to suggest complete decoupling and a shift towards a replacement of fiat currencies.





Hi mate, 
I agree replacement of fiat currencies is not on the cards anytime soon, governments won't give up their power so easily!

Before yesterday I hadn't thought much about the possible failure of multiple US 'savings and loan' type banks (as opposed to highly leveraged investment banks).  The news reports of the Indymac bank failure got me thinking about this.. someone they interviewed had $150K in the bank and lost $50K of it in the bank collapse.  The guy was devastated, I'd say the interview would have been run by all the US newswires.  At this point Americans may dismiss it as a relatively small bank like Australians did with Pyramid Building Society... but Marc Faber has in recent months predicted the collapse of 100 small/medium US banks over the next year.

Faber tends to exaggerate but he's often right.. even if only 5 or 10 savings banks were to go down, I think there's a real possibility that Americans would start to question the safety of banks as a place to store liquid wealth, and seeking out other places to store it.  Meanwhile negative sentiment is building in real estate, stocks and municipal bonds.  It doesn't leave too many options for the average saver, especially HNW savers given that bank balances over $100K are not government guaranteed.  If most assets are going down and gold is going up, as additional banks fail, I am considering whether this could be a big tailwind for gold (if not exactly establish it as the new world currency right away!)  I'm interested to discuss this though... hadn't given it much thought until recently as my focus has been on the inflation-related drivers for gold.


----------



## barrett

josjes said:


> Ok, have to admit being bullish on Gold is a bet against US Dollar, stocks, even AUS dollar, and the banks.
> 
> If you buy Apple or Google, people will not hesitate to brag about it, why do I have the feeling if gold surge to $3000, $4000 it would be a different story ?
> 
> I am merely trying to protect my asset, my hard-earned money contrary to the main stream investment.  I see that few people on this gold forum have seen the writing on the walls and taken steps to protect their assets. Everyone has the same opportunities to do so for the last 2 months or year.




Your recent buys are going well aren't they!   I think most here are invested to some extent at least.. I haven't made many new buys lately.. then again I was already leveraged into gold stock majors heavily enough to break me if it doesn't work out! fingers crossed


----------



## josjes

Good sum up on the whole picture, Barret that fits in with the rising gold-oil ratio, which is what I was trying to convey with the long term chart. The market is slowly viewing Gold not as a commodity but as a currency of true store of value as people are running scared stiff from the banks.

Also, news just came out:


> Consumer prices surge in June at fastest pace in 26 years, reflecting soaring energy costs
> 
> WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer prices shot up in June at the fastest pace in 26 years with two-thirds of the surge blamed on soaring energy prices.
> 
> Grim numbers: Monthly jump in U.S. consumer prices is the biggest since 1982, and the year-over-year rate of 5% works out to the strongest increase since 1991. June's core CPI rate was up 0.3%, the largest increase since January.
> 
> The big rise in prices cut deeply into consumers' earning power with average weekly wages, after adjusting for inflation, dropping by 0.9 percent in June, the biggest monthly decline since 1984.



And gold is up on the news, now there's divergence. In the past, this would be gold bearish as it would mean there's was less chance of a rate cut, more likely a better chance of a rate increase. I think the market is now saying, that even with rising consumer prices, the FED can't raise rates due to the woes of the financial sector? 

The Feds in a box and the SEC is relegated to chasing down naked short sellers (but only where it suits them) to slow the bleeding in the financials.

Slowly slowly inch by inch.


----------



## Sean K

refined silver said:


> Sorry Kennas, disagree about being more dogmatic with language. While no-one here is God and knows the future, I have a fair bit of my net worth on the fact that gold (and silver) are going up. It's not a gamble, it has a lot of research, study and knowledge behind it, and while I'm not predicting the next hour, next day, or even next week, I will say gold will be higher next year, the same as it has every year since 2001, and I have no trouble saying it with a lot of conviction either. There is a long way to go.



The reason why you don't say these things is because gold is now $965. 



josjes said:


> Previous resistance of 952/3 will turn as strong support. Why the support is so strong? Because it was passed with ease. IMO, *last night/today was the last buy at US$960-970 before it reaches 1000*.



Egg thrown.

Case rested.

PS, you might even get it in the $950s....

PSS, actually you could have got it in the $950s.

Case closed.


----------



## Temjin

Oil is down by a lot, still got a bit to go with its way overdued correction. 

It will be interesting to see how POG will held up over the next few days. Though it held up pretty well last night with oil falling down by a few dollars and the US market up by like 2.5%.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, this is the decoupling theory of a few in the thread.  While I don't see it happening anytime over the short-term, it is one possibility further out.
> 
> Until I see images in the Western world similar to those I remember coming out of Argentina quiet some years back (a very real run on the banks), then I can't imagine decoupling taking place.  If it does, I am sure the charts will show that up.  I still think the POO will play a large role in the POG, though of course, gold does have room to move within the traditional ratio, but still nothing to suggest complete decoupling and a shift towards a replacement of fiat currencies.




Both are happening now - gold (currency) is decoupling from oil (commodity) back to the ratio (see previous charts) & there is a real threat to the return of ones capital held in the 'safety' of a bank, even here in Australia. Don't think it can't happen, this is global now. It is human nature to dismiss the bad alternatives when faced with data suggesting the improbable cannot happen. 

Those that were once dismissed as the lunatic fringe doomsters are now viewed as not so loony, perhaps even correct in their extrapolations of the future of fiat currencies. I can't even find the right words to emphasise the magnitude with what's happening to the world at the moment. These are not normal economic cycles going on, these are generational shifts in wealth & living standards and no one on the planet is immune.

We will be in recession in 2009
Leverage into gold & cash & food supply
Short the Aussie dollar
Commodities will correct

Why? Find out where money comes from, you then know where it's going!

PS - POG/POO 'coupling' theories - please post?


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> Gold really outperformed oil over the past week.  I suspect the reason is that predictions of 100+ small/medium US bank failures over the next 12 months have now moved into mainstream commentary as the Indymac bank collapsed.  If I was an American with $100K+ cash savings, I would be very afraid of holding my money in the bank.  I still believe the longer term move into gold is driven by people's savings losing purchasing power at a greater rate each year - but this week - and maybe for months to come - it may not be about that, but something more serious.. fear of complete loss of savings capital.  This factor is not directly linked to oil, and maybe this will be the 'catch-up' factor for gold.





And that is the truth of it.   Gold is the only alternative of substance to the failure of currencies.   They print it so it dilutres.  Same as when a company issues more shares, it dilutes the value of those held.



> Temjin Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Oil is down by a lot, still got a bit to go with its way overdued correction.
> 
> It will be interesting to see how POG will held up over the next few days. Though it held up pretty well last night with oil falling down by a few dollars and the US market up by like 2.5%.




Oil is a commodity, gold is not.   However the fears of war, rising oil and food have thier effect.  They cost more, takes more dollars and the dollars are losing buying power as a result.   Gold is the ultimate hedge.

All the looking under mats for golds steady and strong rise since 2002 is futile.    The savvy are onto it as a hedge.   Among my friinds we call it our insurance.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> It is human nature to dismiss the bad alternatives when faced with data suggesting the improbable cannot happen.




The trouble with this as an argument before the fact is that it cuts both ways. Its only in hindsight that one side can truly claim victory.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> The trouble with this as an argument before the fact is that it cuts both ways. Its only in hindsight that one side can truly claim victory.



Not quit sure what you mean, but what I am implying is that say 12 months ago the possibility of a major American company going bankrupt would have been treated as impossible by the general investing community, let alone the general public, yet here we are and it's a real possibility (Any bank, Fannie, Freddie, General Motors, Boeing, after the order cancellations start to increase?). 

Some of us said this back then (check the postings) so not sure it's hindsite? Basically, just hoping to get some thinking outside the square to be prepared for the 'unexpected' - don't be part of the 'mob' & we shall outperform? (you already do this so not that this applies to you TH)


----------



## professor_frink

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not quit sure what you mean, but what I am implying is that say 12 months ago the possibility of a major American company going bankrupt would have been treated as impossible by the general investing community, let alone the general public, yet here we are and it's a real possibility (Any bank, Fannie, Freddie, General Motors, Boeing, after the order cancellations start to increase?).
> 
> Some of us said this back then (check the postings) so not sure it's hindsite? Basically, just hoping to get some thinking outside the square to be prepared for the 'unexpected' - don't be part of the 'mob' & we shall outperform? (you already do this so not that this applies to you TH)




the thing that I find a little weird about all of this is that you've been calling for doomsday since the start of 2006. The person that didn't pay attention to the bearish case is still doing fine if they bought the index back when the bears first started talking about what is happening now. Sorry to single you out in this instance, but being years early to the bears party isn't really worth bragging about IMHO. The 'mob' that has been fully invested has still done just fine.


----------



## refined silver

kennas said:


> The reason why you don't say these things is because gold is now $965.




Sorry Kennas, with all due respect, thats a load of rubbish. On March 23rd (page 187) of this thread I wrote when gold was in low $900s: 



> Good question. My expected bottom is either $900-905 (in that case already in. Next strong support is $880-890, with very strong support from $850-875.




When gold hit $850, and on TA gold looked terrible, had just broken down a massive H&S with a 600-700s target, I wrote that the best times to buy gold in the last 7-8 years had been the worst looking TA times, and that FA would trump TA where gold is concerned. I got into a big argument with wavepicker and a few others, (see p203, 205, 208,) I said Gold was going back to $1000, wavepicker and others said $600-700. Instead of arguing forever, I said we'll wait and see and I didn't really post on this thread for a couple of months while gold was range bound, now with the touch of $990. I think the direction has been shown. As for the fall back the last couple of days, you'll note I said yesterday $1000 would provide a bit of short-term resistance.

So actually I usually tend to post nearer gold bottoms as thats when the doomsayers come in saying the gold run is over.

And as for banks going broke this I posted this March 14th - page 178 on this thread



> The problem is not ILLIQUID banks, but INSOLVENT banks.
> 
> The Fed solution is said to be aimed at liquidity, but really is just monetizing bankrupcy. The resulting tsunami of inflation will catapult gold way higher.


----------



## Sean K

refined silver said:


> Sorry Kennas, with all due respect, thats a load of rubbish. On March 23rd (page 187) of this thread I wrote when gold was in low $900s:



RF, I'm sorry you thought I was referring to any of your calls.

It was not in reference to you.

Please review the thread.


----------



## Sean K

Here is a hint:



kennas said:


> These 'will do this' and 'will do that' statements are fraught with danger, and are bound to end in egg on one's face. In one sence I hope you get splattered with ovum and membranes, but I'm holding too much LGL and NCM to be completely happy about that.




With all due respect.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

professor_frink said:


> the thing that I find a little weird about all of this is that you've been calling for doomsday since the start of 2006. The person that didn't pay attention to the bearish case is still doing fine if they bought the index back when the bears first started talking about what is happening now. Sorry to single you out in this instance, but being years early to the bears party isn't really worth bragging about IMHO. The 'mob' that has been fully invested has still done just fine.




Not sure how all that precludes me from being long or partaking in a bull market though - you have assumed too much. Who's to say the whole thing hasn't been one big reactionary bear market rally from the tech wreck based on exuberant money supply, which then leads us back to gold.

Doing fine??? The 'mob' will show a negative return on their superannuation funds for the last year. The other 'mob' have been buying all the way down?? because 'the market always comes back/rises', just like Shane Oliver is currently advertising. The rot started in earnest in Feb 07. At least I gave you 12 months warning . And I give you another for free - Australian recession in 2009  I've got a plan at least, so far so good.....then a property bull?


----------



## refined silver

kennas said:


> RF, I'm sorry you thought I was referring to any of your calls.
> 
> It was not in reference to you.
> 
> Please review the thread.




Fair enough. Although if it had have been I'd have been guilty as charged


----------



## Shamus

barrett said:


> Before yesterday I hadn't thought much about the possible failure of multiple US 'savings and loan' type banks (as opposed to highly leveraged investment banks).




Bear in mind that IndyMac specialises in low-doc mortgages, rendering it very exposed to the subprime fallout. 

I'm no expert on the US banking system, but I'm sure the larger, better-managed banks have large deposit bases to fall back on.




barrett said:


> If most assets are going down and gold is going up, as additional banks fail, I am considering whether this could be a big tailwind for gold (if not exactly establish it as the new world currency right away!)  I'm interested to discuss this though... hadn't given it much thought until recently as my focus has been on the inflation-related drivers for gold.




Very good point, though I'm sceptical of just how many banks might topple. Anybody with any knowledge of the subject, feel free to chime in?


----------



## explod

Shamus said:


> I'm no expert on the US banking system, but I'm sure the larger, better-managed banks have large deposit bases to fall back on.
> 
> ?




That is the problem in the US they dont'.  The banks used to have gold holdings to back the currencies but US President Nixon in his wisdom removed that requirement.   The US across the board is broke and with GDP less than interest repayments it is only a matter of when not if.

And Uncle is correct, a number of us have been clearly spelling out this unravelling for at least 12 months.  It has been well spelt out by reputable qualified economists since 2002.   A bit of research and reading stands one in good stead.  I have read four books exactly on this subject that I obtained in 2006.

None of it to do with gloom and doom either,  Just about being prepared

And dont' take our word for it, go back on this thread 18 months and have a good read forward to the end of 07.  You will learn all that is needed to protect yourselves in an hour or so.


----------



## refined silver

Shamus said:


> Bear in mind that IndyMac specialises in low-doc mortgages, rendering it very exposed to the subprime fallout.




They specialise in Alt-A loans which are the next level up from sub-prime.

The important detail not picked up by newswires was that IndyMac supposedly have $38b in assets and $18b in (liabilities) deposits of less than $100k which FDIC will cover. The FDIC expect to have to cough up $4-8b. That means they expect the $38b in assets to fetch $10-14b or 30% of book value!

Wait til more banks have to start dropping certain assets on the balance sheet by 70% or more, and then bring back onto the balance sheets many other toxic assets currently held in SIVs.

Earlier this year an Indian guy (I forget his name) who is a/the world leader in teaching/creating/advising on OTC derivatives, and has written most of the textbooks on the subject etc, when asked what innings we were in of this credit bust, replied he thinks we are about half way through the national anthem.


----------



## professor_frink

professor frink]the thing that I find a little weird about all of this is that you've been calling for doomsday since the start of 2006. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Uncle Festivus said:


> Not sure how all that precludes me from being long or partaking in a bull market though - you have assumed too much. Who's to say the whole thing hasn't been one big reactionary bear market rally from the tech wreck based on exuberant money supply, which then leads us back to gold.




Now where did I say you wouldn't have been long at all? I don't recall assuming anything about how you invest or trade.



			
				professor frink said:
			
		

> The person that didn't pay attention to the bearish case is still doing fine if they bought the index back when the bears first started talking about what is happening now.






			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Doing fine??? The 'mob' will show a negative return on their superannuation funds for the last year. The other 'mob' have been buying all the way down?? because 'the market always comes back/rises', just like Shane Oliver is currently advertising.




Yep doing fine. Like explod mentioned above, this story has been going since the start of the last bull run, which was what I said- "if they bought the index back when the bears first started talking about what is happening now". I made no mention of the fact that people long equities would be up for the past financial year. The people who ignored the bearish talk back in late 2002/early 2003 are still doing fine having stayed long equities.




> The rot started in earnest in Feb 07. At least I gave you 12 months warning . And I give you another for free - Australian recession in 2009  I've got a plan at least, so far so good.....then a property bull?




12 months? early 2006 was a little more than 12 months before the markets actually turned! But if you want to claim it as great foresight to have warned people about the impending bear market nearly 2 years before our market actually topped, then go for it!


----------



## explod

professor_frink said:


> But if you want to claim it as great foresight to have warned people about the impending bear market nearly 2 years before our market actually topped, then go for it!




Maybe a tad harsh Prof.   I think what is meant is that for those wanting to know such things, the answers and predictions espoused were easily found from many sources and some of them at various times over the last year or two on this site, Uncle in particular has provided wise counsel.

No one I believe is wanting to point score, there is just the natural desire to try and inform each other by earnest discussion.

And I admired your contributions as well, for whatever I say is worth.

What I like about ASF is the combined mentorship and it is not slanted towards private pecuniary interest, and its free.  (unless your tin man on r/e)


----------



## MRC & Co

When gold decouples, what price and timeframe to you put on it as a general guidelines to your investments/trading?

2000 within a year or two?  

I think if the time comes that it does decouple (and I agree, it could), we will see a surge well and truly above all time highs.  But for now, that is clearly not the case.  It is still well within it's historical  POO ratio, and FAR below it's all time highs adjusted for inflation, a time where it did not become a replacement for fiat currencies...........


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> When gold decouples, what price and timeframe to you put on it as a general guidelines to your investments/trading?




For my own investing I have no time frame in mind and I have no way of knowing when the big spike will occur.  I am happy that each year since 2002 gold has gone up consistently well and the up trend is well intact and strong.

I do hope (and believe I will know) that my research will tell me when the top is blowing off and that it is time to sell.    It is my plan also, as someone else said earlier today, that I will then transfer into quality real estate, possibly some BHP and something like Woolworths perhaps.   But one step at a time, we follow the market, it is the one that knows the real answers.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

professor_frink said:


> But if you want to claim it as great foresight to have warned people about the impending bear market nearly 2 years before our market actually topped, then go for it!



I don't claim anything or want to brag about anything. I have put my views to the forum members for discussion and hopefully to help others. Not sure this sort of semantical noise actually benefits anyone?


----------



## professor_frink

explod said:


> Maybe a tad harsh Prof.   I think what is meant is that for those wanting to know such things, the answers and predictions espoused were easily found from many sources and some of them at various times over the last year or two on this site, Uncle in particular has provided wise counsel.
> 
> No one I believe is wanting to point score, there is just the natural desire to try and inform each other by earnest discussion.
> 
> And I admired your contributions as well, for whatever I say is worth.
> 
> What I like about ASF is the combined mentorship and it is not slanted towards private pecuniary interest, and its free.  (unless your tin man on r/e)






Uncle Festivus said:


> I don't claim anything or want to brag about anything. I have put my views to the forum members for discussion and hopefully to help others. Not sure this sort of semantical noise actually benefits anyone?




your right gents, I'll go back to the cave I was hiding in earlier this morning


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Oil is a commodity, gold is not.   However the fears of war, rising oil and food have thier effect.  They cost more, takes more dollars and the dollars are losing buying power as a result.   Gold is the ultimate hedge.
> 
> All the looking under mats for golds steady and strong rise since 2002 is futile.    The savvy are onto it as a hedge.   Among my friinds we call it our insurance.




Don't get me wrong, I'm ultra bullish on gold until the US economy collapses or the enter a great depression era.  However, one cannot deny the correlation still exist between oil and gold. They might be different from a consumer point of view, but the market probably doesn't view it that way. Though this is my opinion only.

As expected, POG is heading down on another short term correction. I'm so ready for this. hehe


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> It is not too late to buy GOLD now. Instead of the usual seasonal weekness of summer, gold will have its parabolic run in July/August and continue thru to December. People are scared stiff of the banking run. In Gold we trust in this period of financial turmoil.



Still calling a parabolic run in July/August josjes?



kennas said:


> GLD looks to have broken.
> 
> Wonder if this momentum can continue.




GLD correcting with the POO related gold correction. That support around 93 ish may correspond with 950 POG I think. Quite a bit of support there, expecting it to hold, pending any left field events. Interesting rise in volume during the last run.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Don't get me wrong, I'm ultra bullish on gold until the US economy collapses or the enter a great depression era.  However, one cannot deny the correlation still exist between oil and gold. They might be different from a consumer point of view, but the market probably doesn't view it that way. Though this is my opinion only.
> 
> As expected, POG is heading down on another short term correction. I'm so ready for this. hehe




Agreed.  However it is what the spinners want the sheeple to believe.  Central bankers in getting rid of the gold standard that used to support money now live in fear of currency capitulation.  No need to look further than the headline on Kitko this morning     "GOLD FUTURES FALL  -  TRACKING TUMBLE IN OIL" 

Gold in fact is only about $US3.50 lower than this time yesterday  but on a quick read of the headline the word "'TUMBLE" continues to lay the doubt. 

The huge sell off of gold stocks on a value basis has been very much overdone.  In the new high gold made back in March many new investors came on board.    They are the first to be nervous and very effected by the headline spin from the financial industry and the media.  

Since 2002, gold has been a fabulous investment but you will not hear James from Comsec of Oliver from AMP mentioning that.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> *The huge sell off of gold stocks on a value basis has been very much overdone. * In the new high gold made back in March many new investors came on board.    They are the first to be nervous and very effected by the headline spin from the financial industry and the media.
> 
> Since 2002, gold has been a *fabulous investment *but you will not hear James from Comsec of Oliver from AMP mentioning that.




LOL. Has it?? You guys have so much emotion energy tied up in this play for your mental health I hope it works out.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. Has it?? You guys have so much emotion energy tied up in this play for your mental health I hope it works out.



(nervous giggle....) actually I find it has done wonders for the mental health stamina in that it conditions you to take the semi annual plunges in your stride. The first few were the hardest . 

A chart for the correlationist's to explain?


----------



## GreatPig

kennas said:


> That support around 93 ish may correspond with 950 POG I think.



Another technical view of that chart. Maybe looking for a handle now?

GP


----------



## Sean K

GreatPig said:


> Another technical view of that chart. Maybe looking for a handle now?
> 
> GP



Love cups with a handle GP!


----------



## josjes

kennas said:


> Still calling a parabolic run in July/August josjes?
> 
> 
> 
> GLD correcting with the POO related gold correction. That support around 93 ish may correspond with 950 POG I think. Quite a bit of support there, expecting it to hold, pending any left field events. Interesting rise in volume during the last run.




yes,  Kenna, parabolic move indeed.  And just to back my words with action I went to Perth Mint this morning to load more physical gold at US$956/A$995 with end of year target US$1200. 

Throw some more eggs to my face, I need it for my beauty mask treatment Kenna 

I reiterate my position again, I am a long term holder, not a short term trader, so if I trip over my prediction by 10 bucks don't shoot in my foot Kenna 

In fact let's see some action tonight and over the next week, see if $950 hold as the strong support as I predicted.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> yes,  Kenna, parabolic move indeed.  And just to back my words with action I went to Perth Mint this morning to load more physical gold at US$956/A$995 with end of year target US$1200.
> 
> Throw some more eggs to my face, I need it for my beauty mask treatment Kenna
> 
> I reiterate my position again, I am a long term holder, not a short term trader, so if I trip over my prediction by 10 bucks don't shoot in my foot Kenna
> 
> In fact let's see some action tonight and over the next week, see if $950 hold as the strong support as I predicted.



 Well, keep making silling predictions so I can throw more eggs. 

I'm sure you went to the Mint. You've backed your words with more words. Nice one.


----------



## cuttlefish

The Fannie/Freddie situation as well as various massive writedowns by banks are continuing to be met with denial and/or apathy by the US markets.  

Were I a US resident with my $$$ tied up in USD based investments I would certainly have moved a significant portion of it into foreign currencies, oil and gold by now but this is not happening en masse as yet by the looks of it.

Part of the reason its able to be met with apathy is the feds continued bailing out of each situation as it comes to hand.  The buck doesn't have to stop anywhere - they can keep printing them so its ok - where does the unravelling end - how long is the piece of string - who knows - but we're not at the end of it.

So the FDIC has plenty of money to cover depositors (the piddly < $100k ones anyway) in the event of bank failures.  How long will this mantra last?

Its ok - the fed can keep printing it - but it becomes more worthless every time they do.   The lightbulb will flash at some point in the minds of the consumers.  When they realise their imported oil price is rising not due to increased demand  and not because the chinese are buying it all and not due to hedge fund manipulation but because nobody wants to exchange their good oil for US confetti.

And at some stage the realisation will dawn ... there are a lot of US dollars out there and there's plenty more where they came from ... but there isn't much gold.   And one has lasted as a store of value for thousands of years and it is the one that is in short supply.

Every step along the path takes us further into mainstream territory.  We've gone from wall street bankers (Bear Sterns) to Freddie and Fannie the stable mate of mainstream mortgage lending.  How much money does the FDIC have?  How much will it need?    

But thats not even the start of it ... not even close ... after more news coming through last night I've got an inkling of where the next icebergs will come from and I don't think its going to be pretty at all.   

And the Fed will continue to hit the print button ... they have to now ... its already getting big enough that they have little choice in the matter.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> Part of the reason its able to be met with apathy is the feds continued bailing out of each situation as it comes to hand.  The buck doesn't have to stop anywhere - they can keep printing them so its ok - where does the unravelling end - how long is the piece of string - who knows - but we're not at the end of it.
> 
> 
> Its ok - the fed can keep printing it - but it becomes more worthless every time they do.   The lightbulb will flash at some point in the minds of the consumers.  When they realise their imported oil price is rising not due to increased demand  and not because the chinese are buying it all and not due to hedge fund manipulation but because nobody wants to exchange their good oil for US confetti.
> 
> And at some stage the realisation will dawn ...




As history has shown this could be a fair way off yet.

And the printing presses, yep, as in Germany 1924 it took a wheelbarrow full of notes to buy a meat pie at the end of it all.

In spite of the recent Fed jawboning gold has remained firm after the climb of the last few weeks, in spite of the drop in oil.  But notice the US dollar is weakening again and very close again to the all time low reached in March.  

Consolidation here with the slight rise on todays market is a very healthy outlook..  IMHO

Good to be on the train.


----------



## soso

Just a shorter term EW perspective, 4H and 1H timeframes. To me it looks like we had a 5 wave impulse (visible on 4H chart) and now we are in the corrective phase most probabily an a-b-c where a and b are complete (visible on H1 where a=c) and c should unfold now. The closest target somewhere around 923.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Previous resistance of 952/3 will turn as strong support. Why the support is so strong? Because it was passed with ease. IMO, last night/today was the last buy at US$960-970 before it reaches 1000.
> 
> Gold is not going to put in a lower low and gold is not going to go away in May (or July or August for that matter). What gold is going to do is rally. Last Thursday and Friday’s break out to the upside left what was strong resistance at 945 in the dust and will challenge the 999.40 resistance without any significant setbacks.
> IMHO gold will reach a minimum price target of $1200 with no more than 8% correction reaction.
> 
> DYODD



I have my eggs ready josjes. 

You need to start using words like; 'could', 'should', probably', 'unlikely' and 'perhaps' when describing market movements.

Only three things are certain in life. Death, taxes, and first year phys ed chicks.



I'm obviously hoping it recovers.


----------



## explod

Gold turned down overnight, the following from Jim Sinclair's blog says it well. 



> Author: Dan Norcini
> 
> 
> Dear Friends,
> 
> You can almost set your watch by the completely expected parade of talking heads which graced our ears and eyes this morning. The reason for the “sudden appearances” of Paulson and Plosser are obvious. The Dollar made its LOWEST CLOSE in two months in yesterday’s session and was sitting barely a half a cent above an ALL TIME LOW in the USDX chart. Having no other weapon in their bag of recent tricks to support it, they resorted once again to the tried and not-so-true method of currency manipulation, aka, verbal intervention. What a tragic scene to witness – the world’s premiere superpower resorting to spin to prop up Humpty Dumpty.




David Hirst, back page of Business Age well worth a read also.  I think it can be accessed on line later in the morning.

The bigger days for gold are getter ever so much closer now.


----------



## professor_frink

sorry explod, I was about to type a reply out in here last night and then of course opened a trade, so had to leave it be until I closed it out. As is usually the case if I want to do something afterwards, the trade lasted until I could barely keep my eyes open



explod said:


> I cant, a bit wild that one and apologise
> 
> In fact the gold standard used to keep gold prices fairly stable.  There was a bit of a jump around 1936 from $US20 to $35 where it was then  held in check by US Government Regulation.
> 
> The decoupling of gold from currrency created the conditions on which gold could rise from that $35 to the $800 peak in 1980.
> 
> My contention is (and this should be on the gold thread) that this situation is repeating and the ratio says to me that it will go very high indeed this time.




That's alright, I just wanted to know what you were referring to there


You also mentioned that gold holds it's value in a post last night - I wanted to share this chart that I found quite some time ago, but had completely forgot about - 







I have no idea how accurate this chart is, but it doesn't really help the case for gold being a store of value.

As to there being a repeat of the 70's, whilst I agree that it's the more likely scenario, I don't think we can completely rule out a deflationary scenario yet. The credit boom that lifted the price of pretty well every asset class over the past few years has busted, we already have house and share prices deflating, and commodities are looking quite weak as well. If pretty well everything rose together, who's to say that it all won't fall together


----------



## professor_frink

explod said:


> Gold turned down overnight, the following from Jim Sinclair's blog says it well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Author: Dan Norcini
> 
> 
> Dear Friends,
> 
> You can almost set your watch by the completely expected parade of talking heads which graced our ears and eyes this morning. The reason for the “sudden appearances” of Paulson and Plosser are obvious. The Dollar made its LOWEST CLOSE in two months in yesterday’s session and was sitting barely a half a cent above an ALL TIME LOW in the USDX chart. Having no other weapon in their bag of recent tricks to support it, they resorted once again to the tried and not-so-true method of currency manipulation, aka, verbal intervention. What a tragic scene to witness – the world’s premiere superpower resorting to spin to prop up Humpty Dumpty.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> David Hirst, back page of Business Age well worth a read also.  I think it can be accessed on line later in the morning.
> 
> The bigger days for gold are getter ever so much closer now.
Click to expand...



Gotta love the enthusiasm there. What else would this guy expect Paulson to do? It's his job to try and communicate what the govt/fed are trying to achieve. I'm not sure why he would refer to Paulson showing up as a "sudden appearance"-  it was in the economic calendar at the start of the week, so of course you could predict it coming

Considering the state of the US dollar right now, he wasn't exactly going to show up and talk the dollar down was he?

Explod, you constantly make comments about the talking heads on CNBC and other mainstream journo's talking the stockmarket up and leading the lambs to the slaughter(or something like that). This is pretty well the exact same type of spin, but aimed at gold bugs


----------



## cuttlefish

The chart doesn't show up on screen for me in prof's post two posts back - is that just me or is there something wrong with the link?


----------



## professor_frink

cuttlefish said:


> The chart doesn't show up on screen for me in prof's post two posts back - is that just me or is there something wrong with the link?




It's showing up on my browser, but I'll repost it anyway just to make sure it's there for all to see


----------



## explod

Professor_frink,  you make some good points which need to be addressed.  Partly trying to be a counter ballance.  

Time does not permit me this morning, will come back late tonight.

cheers explod


----------



## Whiskers

cuttlefish said:


> The chart doesn't show up on screen for me in prof's post two posts back - is that just me or is there something wrong with the link?




Yeah same here. I just got the little icon with the X on it.

What format was your chart in the first post, prof?


----------



## professor_frink

Whiskers said:


> Yeah same here. I just got the little icon with the X on it.
> 
> What format was your chart in the first post, prof?




IMG code. Have done the same thing when posting pictures from other sites before, so not sure why this one didn't work. I'm running on 4 hours sleep and about 5 cups of coffee this morning, so the problem was most likely a picnic problem rather than a computer related one

Did the chart in the second post show up for everyone else?


----------



## Sean K

professor_frink said:


> Did the chart in the second post show up for everyone else?



Yep.


----------



## professor_frink

kennas said:


> Yep.




good good

I can go back to bed now


----------



## refined silver

> professor_frink said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gotta love the enthusiasm there. What else would this guy expect Paulson to do? It's his job to try and communicate what the govt/fed are trying to achieve.
> 
> Considering the state of the US dollar right now, he wasn't exactly going to show up and talk the dollar down was he?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US govt trying to acheive a strong dollar???? Running massive trade, current account and budget deficits, and then monetising every insolvent financial entity from the Treasury?? Or the US monetary authorities lying again?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Explod, you constantly make comments about the talking heads on CNBC and other mainstream journo's talking the stockmarket up and leading the lambs to the slaughter(or something like that). This is pretty well the exact same type of spin, but aimed at gold bugs
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry but you can't compare the two, they are poles apart. All the spin 2-3 months ago about the worst of the credit crisis being over, The Bear Stearns collapse behind closed doors, while saying everything is dandy in the week leading up, the Fannie and Freddie collapse while denying their insolvency, the whole lead-up, and denying the size of the bailout after the collapse.
> 
> One is purposeful deception, lies, fraud, cover-ups, manipulation, etc. vs another side saying with conviction and honest belief that gold is going up as a result of all currency and monetary shenanigans.
Click to expand...


----------



## refined silver

professor_frink said:


> Did the chart in the second post show up for everyone else?




Not sure about the accuracy of your historical gold chart.

Here is a historical one for silver with the gold/silver ratio also there, so you can work out gold's price by multiplying the silver price by the ratio. As you can see, historically the ratio was aorund 15 meaning a silver price of $400 1998 inflation adjusted dollars means golds price was $6,000 of these dollars, or over $9,000 of todays dollars.

Also historically, a  day's wage used to be a silver dime, a silver quarter, or maybe a silver dollar.  2000 years ago in Rome, a silver denarius was a day's wage, and that coin was about the size of a silver dime, too. Even as recently as 100 years ago, a silver dime was a day's wage. A silver dime today costs about 50 cents, at $7.20/oz. for silver. Since a day's wage today is say $150 you can see silver is way undervlaued to its historical value and similarly gold would be.

Likewise, Judas betrays Jesus for 30 pieces of silver and buys a field just outside Jerusalem with the money. How much is a field just outside town worth today? Again, silver and gold historically were worth much more than they are now, or stated differently, they are very undervalued at present.


----------



## Sean K

refined silver said:


> Also historically, a  day's wage used to be a silver dime, a silver quarter, or maybe a silver dollar.  2000 years ago in Rome, a silver denarius was a day's wage, and that coin was about the size of a silver dime, too. Even as recently as 100 years ago, a silver dime was a day's wage. A silver dime today costs about 50 cents, at $7.20/oz. for silver. Since a day's wage today is say $150 you can see silver is way undervlaued to its historical value and similarly gold would be.
> 
> Likewise, Judas betrays Jesus for 30 pieces of silver and buys a field just outside Jerusalem with the money. How much is a field just outside town worth today? Again, silver and gold historically were worth much more than they are now, or stated differently, they are very undervalued at present.



RS, not sure about the merit of these comparisons without comparing the cost of living between those times and now. 

Might be a little more today.


----------



## refined silver

kennas said:


> RS, not sure about the merit of these comparisons without comparing the cost of living between those times and now.
> 
> Might be a little more today.




It compares the price of silver (and x15 implicitly gold) to real world things like a day's labour and a field. 

It shows that 2000 years ago, silver and gold bought a lot more than they do today, or, that they are not at similar buying power prices to what they have been historically.

The 600 silver chart likewise is miles apart from professor finks chart.


----------



## professor_frink

refined silver said:


> It compares the price of silver (and x15 implicitly gold) to real world things like a day's labour and a field.
> 
> It shows that 2000 years ago, silver and gold bought a lot more than they do today, or, that they are not at similar buying power prices to what they have been historically.
> 
> The 600 silver chart likewise is miles apart from professor finks chart.




That chart I posted came from http://www.chartsrus.com/, which also had the chart you just posted up there, so I can only imagine that they've come from the same source:dunno:

If the exact numbers for my chart are wrong, then I apologise, I wasn't trying to mislead anyone by posting it. If we use the silver chart you posted and assume the gold/silver ratio is accurate to estimate where gold should have been, it further highlights the point I was making earlier about gold not being a very good store of value.

So the question that flows on from this is why? Why would people perceive something to be a store of value when it has been steadily losing value for the entire modern history of mankind?


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> So the question that flows on from this is why? Why would people perceive something to be a store of value when it has been steadily losing value for the entire modern history of mankind?





:dunno: 
Maybe facts are irrelevant when faith is concerned. :bowdown:


----------



## refined silver

professor_frink said:


> That chart I posted came from http://www.chartsrus.com/, which also had the chart you just posted up there, so I can only imagine that they've come from the same source:dunno:




No problem. I wasn't at all intimating anything other than that chart gave values inconsistent with other charts and other historical evidence. $6-9000 gold shows that today its a long way from its historical norm.


----------



## explod

professor_frink said:


> If we use the silver chart you posted and assume the gold/silver ratio is accurate to estimate where gold should have been, it further highlights the point I was making earlier about gold not being a very good store of value.
> 
> So the question that flows on from this is why? Why would people perceive something to be a store of value when it has been steadily losing value for the entire modern history of mankind?




Well I see it another way and this is just one example of my thinking.   In 1934 when my Dad was a lad he could buy a meat pie for threepence (2.5cents)  Today it costs $3.     so in 70 years a pie has gone up more than 1,000 times.   Gold has only gone up about 38 times.

So what is losing value, I say the paper money because it is taking more and more of them.    And eventually if this rate keeps up there wont be anough dollars in existence to buy all the gold.  Or oil, silver, and a pie.

As I said in a recent previous post here, it took a barrow full in Germany to buy a pie in 1924.   

You can tell I used to love pies, my Doc wont' let me now.


----------



## professor_frink

explod said:


> Well I see it another way and this is just one example of my thinking.   In 1934 when my Dad was a lad he could buy a meat pie for threepence (2.5cents)  Today it costs $3.     so in 70 years a pie has gone up more than 1,000 times.   Gold has only gone up about 38 times.
> 
> So what is losing value, I say the paper money because it is taking more and more of them.    And eventually if this rate keeps up there wont be anough dollars in existence to buy all the gold.  Or oil, silver, and a pie.
> 
> As I said in a recent previous post here, it took a barrow full in Germany to buy a pie in 1924.
> 
> You can tell I used to love pies, my Doc wont' let me now.




LOL! I had 2 for lunch

That makes a good case for not being long cash explod, but acknowledging that gold can't even keep up with the price of a meat(I use that term fairly loosely) pie isn't really helping the case for being long gold in the long term due to it being a store of value.


----------



## subaru69

professor_frink said:


> That makes a good case for not being long cash explod, but acknowledging that gold can't even keep up with the price of a meat(I use that term fairly loosely) pie isn't really helping the case for being long gold in the long term due to it being a store of value.




I propose adding Meat Pies to the exchange as a new commodity.  As the American Indians say in some proverb: 'when the world turns to sh*t, you can't eat money' (or something like that); well at least you can eat your pies.


----------



## explod

professor_frink said:


> LOL! I had 2 for lunch
> 
> That makes a good case for not being long cash explod, but acknowledging that gold can't even keep up with the price of a meat(I use that term fairly loosely) pie isn't really helping the case for being long gold in the long term due to it being a store of value.





OK, what would you rather have, $35 or an ounce of gold from the 1930's?]

I know if I had left my $35 in 1930 at (Ithink you could get 2.5%) the bank and stored an ounce of gold, which would be the better today.

I do not say that gold is the best investment, what seems to be misssed is that at this time I believe gold to be undervalue and that money in the bank, or in bonds etc would be at greater risk.  And the stock market, well it sti..s.

In fact I have said many times in this thread that I hope I can recognise when gold has peaked so that I will then turn my attention to property, or oil, or its alternative, or whatever I think then is the safest sleep at night investment.

But that's just me.

ps. someone will do the sum and I may be wrong on that, but I think an ounce of gold was $35 up to 1970, which makes a big difference


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Previous resistance of 952/3 will turn as strong support. Why the support is so strong? Because it was passed with ease. IMO, last night/today was the last buy at US$960-970 before it reaches 1000.
> 
> Gold is not going to put in a lower low and gold is not going to go away in May (or July or August for that matter). What gold is going to do is rally. Last Thursday and Friday’s break out to the upside left what was strong resistance at 945 in the dust and will challenge the 999.40 resistance without any significant setbacks.
> IMHO gold will reach a minimum price target of $1200 with no more than 8% correction reaction.
> 
> DYODD





kennas said:


> I have my eggs ready josjes.
> 
> You need to start using words like; 'could', 'should', probably', 'unlikely' and 'perhaps' when describing market movements.
> 
> Only three things are certain in life. Death, taxes, and first year phys ed chicks.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm obviously hoping it recovers.



I now have pies to throw too.

All support mentioned smashed.
Making a lower low.
Significant pullback.
Off 6.5% ish, so you have one card left.

Better get down the mint again buddy.  

Who would have thought a correction in oil would have effected POG.


----------



## explod

This one from James Turk is (pwhew) minus the meat pies.




> Putting the Gold Price in Perspective
> 
> A note from James Turk – I wrote the following article for “Information Line”, published by Michael Checkan and Glen Kirsch, the proprietors of Asset Strategies International, Inc. in Rockville, Maryland, http://www.assetstrategies.com/index.php
> 
> The first thing people usually consider when buying gold is its price, but unfortunately, they are grabbing the wrong end of the stick. Price is of secondary importance. To explain why, one has to examine the reasons for buying and holding gold.
> 
> The motivation to buy gold is usually driven by the pursuit of some defensive financial strategy. For example, gold is a proven and time-tested inflation hedge, so people acquire gold if they believe inflation is likely to worsen. This defensive strategy aims to protect your purchasing power because with gold you hold sound money instead of some inflating national currency.
> 
> Another defensive motivation to acquire gold is its unique attribute of being money with no counterparty risk. This significance of this risk was highlighted by the bank-run at Northern Rock in the UK last year and more recently, Bear Stearns in the US. People withdrew their money from those banks because they recognized that their ‘money’ was only as good as the financial capability of those banks to make good on their promise. In contrast, gold is not dependent upon a promise because it is the only money that is a tangible asset, and not an I.O.U. of some financial institution.
> 
> Another reason people focus on the price of gold is because they consider it to be an investment, but it’s not. Investments generate rates of return because you put money at risk, for example, by lending it or buying equity in a company. If the investment is successful, you will generate a return, increasing your wealth. But gold doesn’t do this. Gold preserves wealth; it doesn’t increase it.
> 
> For example, one ounce of gold purchases approximately the same amount of crude oil today as it has at anytime over the past 60 years. Who would want an investment like that? Gold hasn’t generated any rate of return. It hasn’t given its holders the opportunity to buy more crude oil. But because you can still buy essentially the same amount of crude oil, an ounce of gold has done exceptionally well at protecting wealth by preserving purchasing power, which is what money is supposed to do.
> 
> Money is a temporary store of value where we place a portion of our wealth while we decide whether to spend, invest or save (hoard) it. So when we hoard gold, we are in fact saving money until that moment in time when we decide to spend or invest it, which brings me back to my basic point.
> 
> Does one question the price (i.e., purchasing power) of dollars before choosing to open a savings account? No, of course not. Savings represent the portion of one’s accumulated wealth held as liquidity (i.e., money) either for a rainy day, to accumulate before spending or investing it, or just to safeguard this portion of your wealth safely and securely. But an inflating dollar doesn’t achieve these aims. The dollar – and indeed every other national currency – has severe problems that undermine their usefulness. In contrast, protecting wealth is what gold does exceptionally well by preserving the purchasing power of one’s liquidity, not necessarily from day-to-day or week-to-week, but consistently and reliably over longer periods of time.
> 
> So instead of focusing on gold’s price when buying it, focus on what gold is, what it offers, and what it accomplishes for you. Gold is a form of savings that securely preserves that portion of your wealth that you choose to hold as sound money.
> 
> I recognize that it is difficult to view gold in this way and to give little regard to its price, particularly because we are so used to looking at prices of goods and services in terms of dollars and not gold. Also, we have been trained to think of gold as an investment instead of what it really is – money. But we can overcome these biases and incorrect conventional wisdoms.
> 
> One way to do that is to consider accumulating gold on a regularly monthly basis. In other words, save some money every month, but don’t save dollars, the purchasing power of which is being inflated away. Save sound money instead. Save gold.
> 
> When gold is viewed in this way, it is clear that even with the four-fold increase in the gold price since 2001, no one has ‘missed the boat’. Building savings by accumulating gold is always a good thing.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> This one from James Turk is (pwhew) minus the meat pies.



explod, the problem with his position is that he is saying gold never loses it's value. 

This position is very wrong and deceiving:



> So instead of focusing on gold’s price when buying it, focus on what gold is, what it offers, and what it accomplishes for you. *Gold is a form of savings that securely preserves that portion of your wealth *that you choose to hold as sound money.




Today, gold is not a constant value but goes up and down according to _perception_ of it value. It is _perceived_ to be a hedge against inflation. It does not _securely preserve_ your wealth at all. People who bought gold in 1987, or recently at over $1000 have *lost money*. It does not matter right now if gold is going up in the long term, or not. It has gone down in value to this point. And, when inflation is curbed, the world economy recovers eventually, and when (if) the USD recovers, then the perception that gold is a hedge will mean it will tank. Might take 20 years, but gold is not a secure, constant, reliable store of wealth.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> explod, the problem with his position is that he is saying gold never loses it's value.
> 
> This position is very wrong and deceiving:
> 
> 
> 
> Today, gold is not a constant value but goes up and down according to _perception_ of it value. It is _perceived_ to be a hedge against inflation. It does not _securely preserve_ your wealth at all. People who bought gold in 1987, or recently at over $1000 have *lost money*. It does not matter right now if gold is going up in the long term, or not. It has gone down in value to this point. And, when inflation is curbed, the world economy recovers eventually, and when (if) the USD recovers, then the perception that gold is a hedge will mean it will tank. Might take 20 years, but gold is not a secure, constant, reliable store of wealth.




Dont agree, it is the other things that change in value.   When gold went down in late 80s to 90s we now observe that finanicals were being inflated by cheap money, the Dow rose on crap in fact to the Dot.com and now the sub-prime.  And it has a lot further to fall.  Gold will hold, as it always has, not for profit but as a place to store ones wealth safely.


The question and answers are just not that simple. with due respect.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Who would have thought a correction in oil would have effected POG.




Or a correction in the Aussie dollar or ..... whatever is on the other side of the $USD

It's a move in the $USD, which both are priced in, plus in the case of oil, fundamental supply & demand (inventories, overbought.. don't know, don't care), and for gold the belief that all is good again so we re-cycle back to general equities, until the next phase of the 'credit crunch', sub prime or whatever the latest flavour of the week financial contagion takes place?
	

	
	
		
		

		
			







kennas said:


> explod, the problem with his position is that he is saying gold never loses it's value.
> 
> This position is very wrong and deceiving:
> 
> Today, gold is not a constant value but goes up and down according to _perception_ of it value. It is _perceived_ to be a hedge against inflation. It does not _securely preserve_ your wealth at all. People who bought gold in 1987, or recently at over $1000 have *lost money*. It does not matter right now if gold is going up in the long term, or not. It has gone down in value to this point. And, when inflation is curbed, the world economy recovers eventually, and when (if) the USD recovers, then the perception that gold is a hedge will mean it will tank. Might take 20 years, but gold is not a secure, constant, reliable store of wealth.




It's only wrong or deceiving if your understanding of inflation is that it is prices going up, whereas I understand that prices go up _because of_ inflation. While gold is not perfect with the short term fluctuation ie if you are trading it, over the longer term it should reflect the circulation of fiat currency and or money supply. 

The irony is that if the worlds central banks managed their respective money supplies better gold would indeed be 'worthless'. Until that time, & until the worlds reserve currency is not US dollars, gold and 'hard' assets will continue to reflect the over issuance of US dollars and the debasement of all the worlds currencies generally? 

I remember some prominent analyst commenting that as far as this contagion goes, we are only up to the national anthem before the real game starts. We will let this cycle play out as usual as it's been a good run. The test for the techies will probably be $850 again, but I don't think it will get that low this cycle, so only choice to make now is when to buy again ie when will the $USD revert to form?

The game is not over, so what flavour pie do _you_ prefer


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's only wrong or deceiving if your understanding of inflation is that it is prices going up, whereas I understand that prices go up _because of_ inflation.
> 
> The game is not over, so what flavour pie do _you_ prefer



Inflation drives the prices of goods up? I am confused.

A pie because I don't think we still have the gold standard?

Throw away.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Inflation drives the prices of goods up? I am confused.
> 
> A pie because I don't think we still have the gold standard?
> 
> Throw away.




Inflation is the expansion of money (as distinct from its value.)  Zimbabwe, billions of paper notes are worthless, that was hyper-inflation.  In the US today the printing presses are starting to work overtime and they too are entering the era of hyper-inflation.

On top of that the problems are being componded by a shortage of supply.   If you could buy and store a heap of coffee and oil rice you would have a great hedge and store of wealth for awhile.  You can of course trade these tangibles but that market is being distorted by considerable manipulation.

Gold is also increasingly in short supply and so is a more practical item in which to hedge against the current financial ravages.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Inflation is the expansion of money (as distinct from its value.)  Zimbabwe, billions of paper notes are worthless, that was hyper-inflation.  In the US today the printing presses are starting to work overtime and they too are entering the era of hyper-inflation.
> 
> On top of that the problems are being componded by a shortage of supply.   If you could buy and store a heap of coffee and oil rice you would have a great hedge and store of wealth for awhile.  You can of course trade these tangibles but that market is being distorted by considerable manipulation.
> 
> Gold is also increasingly in short supply and so is a more practical item in which to hedge against the current financial ravages.



Well, I'm no Monetarist, or Keynesian, and I'm certainly no Economistian, but I know we have inflation, and the perception in the market is that if we have inflation (well, the US) then you go to the mint. And since this perception is strongly inculcated into our psyche, that gold is some sort of 'go to' when the world turns pear shaped, I'm in.


----------



## rederob

kennas said:


> explod, the problem with his position is that he is saying gold never loses it's value.
> 
> This position is very wrong and deceiving:
> 
> Today, gold is not a constant value but goes up and down according to _perception_ of it value. It is _perceived_ to be a hedge against inflation. It does not _securely preserve_ your wealth at all. People who bought gold in 1987, or recently at over $1000 have *lost money*. It does not matter right now if gold is going up in the long term, or not. It has gone down in value to this point. And, when inflation is curbed, the world economy recovers eventually, and when (if) the USD recovers, then the perception that gold is a hedge will mean it will tank. Might take 20 years, but gold is not a secure, constant, reliable store of wealth.



Wealth is a financial concept.
Value has more possibilities than finance alone.
Gold may alter in value perception, but not in value per se as it has intrinsic qualities to it.
Underpinning gold's value is its rarity and (almost) indestructibility, apart from its metallic lustre (which has feverish qualities).
Most above ground gold is so valuable it is locked in vaults, and regulated strictly by governments.  
Gold's price is market driven.
The market is unmet with gold through mine supply, and relies significantly on releases from central banks to satisfy consumer/commercial demand.  Central Bank gold sales cannot go on ad infinitum, so gold increases in value as more is released because less is then available. 
However, as Central Banks have many, many years of supply to release to market there is always the prospect their actions can collapse the gold price at their whim.
There is little doubt that "speculation" on the known and regulated markets for gold leads to its daily price, and its daily movements.
The question is if this alters gold's "value".
I would argue that it does not.
Moreover, any investor with a long term horizon could buy gold reasonably confidently when it dipped significantly as gold - on a per capita basis - gets rarer by the day.
As a store of value gold has no peers. 
As a store of wealth it will remain subject to the vagaries of the market.


----------



## Temjin

kennas said:


> Who would have thought a correction in oil would have effected POG.




I'm not surprised at all that oil still has a correlation with POG. 

However, I'm more surprised with the recent movement in the POG that has an extraordinary correlation with its "seasonal cycle" taken over the last few years. While history does not usually repeat itself, it just seem that the two weeks from Mid of July to early August almost always registered a drop in POG. Of course, I may suffer from the pattern bias or whatever, but who would have thought the fall in oil prices and temporary rise in USD would have fueled the POG's cyclic trend. Everything just seem to happen so coincidentally.


----------



## explod

> Author: Dan Norcini
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dear Friends;
> 
> The following is a series of headline alerts and a stories that came down my wire this AM. The reason I have included them is to reinforce what we have been saying about “CHART PAINTING”. You would be a bit surprised to learn that I receive emails from people out there who categorically deny such a thing is possible or that it even occurs in the US markets. They condescendingly assert that our claims about the tactics of the short sellers, both in the Comex gold arena and in the stocks, is merely a case of sour grapes from a frustrated bull. That is naÃ¯ve at best and just plain ignorant at worst.
> 
> While this story deals with the oil market, the tactics employed are identical and reasons behind them are the same in all cases. Why is that? Because today’s markets are dominated by technicians who pride themselves on having no fundamental view whenever they approach a market but claim that all that is necessary to make money is a knowledge of technical analysis. Some of them actually go so far as to boast about their ignorance of the markets that they trade and revel in the fact that they could care less!
> 
> We have maintained that those who have no fundamental view are rudderless ships on the ocean of the trading floors. They can be easily blown about by every wind of price behavior. When prices move lower during a price retracement in a bull market, they become morosely bearish. When prices move higher, they are wildly bullish buying blindly into upside strength. Price action alone dictates what they believe! Since this is now the vast majority of traders/investors, it takes little imagination to understand why chart painting on the close is so important to market manipulation schemes.
> 
> It is a fact that the closing price is the most important price in any commodity or stock for that day’ session as nearly every single technical price indicator or oscillator uses the closing price in its calculations. Move that strongly in one direction or another, push it as far as possible off the session highs if you are attempting to force price downwards, and all of the technical analysis programs that millions of investors are using will register your efforts. The result is that those software programs then do your work for you as they HERD the INVESTING PUBLIC in the direction you wish them to go.
> 
> Manipulation such as is charged above, “banging the closing period”, has ONE PURPOSE in mind – to move the closing price in the direction that the perpetrators desire so as to AFFECT THE MAXIMUM technical damage or effect to a market and to psychologically devastate those on the other sides of the trade.
> 
> Now do you see why it is necessary when trading gold to understand the tactics of our trading enemies and to also get a grip on your emotions when trading as well as having a firm fundamental view? Once you understand how the game is played you can also spot the tipoffs that alert you to their activities and protect yourselves accordingly. You can also profit accordingly by using the inevitable lemming like response to your advantage.
> 
> Dan




And examples of it going on in other areas are footnoted, go to www.jsmineset.com/ 

I have noticed the end of day moves on many of our gold stocks of late and have no doubt it is becoming common across the board.

comments?        cheers explod


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> It is a fact that the closing price is the most important price in any commodity or stock for that day’ session as nearly every single technical price indicator or oscillator uses the closing price in its calculations.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And examples of it going on in other areas are footnoted, go to www.jsmineset.com/
> 
> I have noticed the end of day moves on many of our gold stocks of late and have no doubt it is becoming common across the board.
> 
> comments?        cheers explod
Click to expand...



Good post explod.

Precisely why I have adjusted all my indicators away from closing price to muffle out that sort of noise and manipulation to get a better picture.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> And examples of it going on in other areas are footnoted, go to www.jsmineset.com/
> 
> I have noticed the end of day moves on many of our gold stocks of late and have no doubt it is becoming common across the board.
> 
> comments?        cheers explod



The vaste majority of traders and investors are technicians are they? Interesting.

Can you clarrify for me, is he saying technicians are manipulating the market EOD to TA?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> The vaste majority of traders and investors are technicians are they? Interesting.
> 
> Can you clarrify for me, is he saying technicians are manipulating the market EOD to TA?




Not up to knowing or answering that, but Sinclair himself has his focus on what we term the Plunge Protection Team.

Interesting Wall Street upset at so-called manipulaters taking the POO up but they sure are putting plenty of spin on to take it back down.

I suspect the big players would be making money both ways.   At a seminar I attended four years ago I was taught that this is the name of the game.  It was BHP we were working at then.


----------



## Sean K

This is one of the better 'media' articles I have read on gold by another self proclaimed guru.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Stuppler/jul282008.html

Approaching that 8% drop that josjes said would never happen again unfortunately. Unfortunate, unless you've been short. The drop seemed to coincide immediately with his up up and away claim.

Seems when anyone here says POG is _definately_ going in some direction, it turns about. Must keep an eye on those contraindicators for trading opportunites.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> This is one of the better 'media' articles I have read on gold by another self proclaimed guru.
> 
> Seems when anyone here says POG is _definately_ going in some direction, it turns about. Must keep an eye on those contraindicators for trading opportunites.




Good one kennas.     I think you will find the article collectively mirrors/summarises a great deal of what has been posted on this thread for the last 18months at least.

And few of the consistent posters here call short to medium term direction.  I for one have allways maintained that the larger rise will be post US Pres./election.

On most of what I have just stated David Hirst has an uncannily similar article in todays Business Age.   In particular the opposing jawboning of both the media and the banks.   Should be able to find it online later in the day.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kennas said:


> Must keep an eye on those contraindications for trading opportunities.




SHhhhh!!  :nono:  don't let the secrets out.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Random rambling again 

Gold looks like it might be following the same sideways consolidating pattern as the previous run up through 2006-2007, although with a truncated x-scale (time value) due to the worsening credit/money supply/$USD crisis, a 'creeping stair case' movement with large daily ranges, but higher lows, over a shorter timeframe? Getting closer now?

The double bottom could be in, but a 'rotation rally' for the $USD is possible in a last attempt by the Fed to gyprock over the deep money shuffler contagion taking place in the US.


----------



## Sean K

Anyone else see a H&S in the short term spot gold chart with the neckline at 915 and the tip of the head at 986?


----------



## bean

Do we have a massive H & S on the HUI  
Will there be panic selling soon in the Gold stocks as the HUI breaks down under 380.  Sellers believe the Gold Bull is over?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> Do we have a massive H & S on the HUI
> Will there be panic selling soon in the Gold stocks as the HUI breaks down under 380.  Sellers believe the Gold Bull is over?
> View attachment 22796




Bean you're back!


----------



## rederob

bean said:


> Do we have a massive H & S on the HUI
> Will there be panic selling soon in the Gold stocks as the HUI breaks down under 380.  Sellers believe the Gold Bull is over?
> View attachment 22796



The short term rally of the USD is about to end.
Oil's falls are also nearing an end, pro tem.
Most likely to be business as usual for the oil and gold bull in the next week.


----------



## VViCKiD

hi rob,
just wondering wat ur reasoning behind this was??


----------



## Whiskers

What is the real price of gold atm?


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> What is the real price of gold atm?



Depends on which contract they're quoting.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Approaching that 8% drop that josjes said would never happen again unfortunately. Unfortunate, unless you've been short. The drop seemed to coincide immediately with his up up and away claim.



I'm not one to rub salt into wounds, but I got a slap on the wrist from fellow members for being critical of this call. I think his last card, 8% drop never to happen again, has just been broken. Looking forward to your next definitive call on gold josjes. 

I've no more eggs, or pies.


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> Depends on which contract they're quoting.




They're both supposed to be live spot. 

I have kitco Kcast live digital (updated every minute) with link to chart on my task bar and just use the other occassionally for charting but have never known these two to differ that much before.


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> They're both supposed to be live spot.
> 
> I have kitco Kcast live digital (updated every minute) with link to chart on my task bar and just use the other occassionally for charting but have never known these two to differ that much before.




Yeah, but what exactly is "spot"? Physical cash market? Nearest futures contract trading? Near most liquid futures contract?


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> Yeah, but what exactly is "spot"? Physical cash market? Nearest futures contract trading? Near most liquid futures contract?




My understanding is the spot price is the price that is quoted for immediate settlement and delivery... maybe a day or two. 

Since both sites say spot price and are US sites I presumed they were both NYMEX... but that is not made clear.

While the low about 895 was about 1/2 hour behind on kitco, they are both in sync again now.


----------



## Sean K

You've made me wonder what the heck I am trading on IG Markets 'Spot Gold' price.

Is it Spot, or Might be Spot, or Close to Spot, or IG synthetic.


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> My understanding is the spot price is the price that is quoted for immediate settlement and delivery... maybe a day or two.
> 
> Since both sites say spot price and are US sites I presumed they were both NYMEX... but that is not made clear.
> 
> While the low about 895 was about 1/2 hour behind on kitco, they are both in sync again now.




NYMEX is a futures exchange, so no immediate selttlement/delivery there, nor over at CBOT....
just found this - might explain (different to the "spot contract" in futures).

In gold - the futures price, minus cost of carry.



> Spot price
> From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> Jump to: navigation, search
> 
> The spot price or spot rate of a commodity, a security or a currency is the price that is quoted for immediate (spot) settlement (payment and delivery). Spot settlement is normally one or two business days from trade date. This is in contrast with the forward price established in a forward contract or futures contract, where contract terms (price) are set now, but delivery and payment will occur at a future date. Spot rates are estimated via the bootstrapping method, which uses prices of the securities currently trading in market, that is, from the cash or coupon curve. The result is the spot curve, which exist for each of the various classes of securities.
> 
> [edit] Spot prices and future price expectations
> 
> Depending on the item being traded, spot prices can indicate market expectations of future price movements in different ways. For a security or non-perishable commodity (e.g., gold), the spot price reflects market expectations of future price movements. In theory, the difference in spot and forward prices should be equal to the finance charges, plus any earnings due to the holder of the security, according to the cost of carry model. For example, on a share the difference in price between the spot and forward is usually accounted for almost entirely by any dividends payable in the period minus the interest payable on the purchase price. Any other price would yield an arbitrage opportunity and riskless profit (see rational pricing for the arbitrage mechanics).
> 
> In contrast, a perishable commodity does not allow this arbitrage - the cost of storage is effectively higher than the expected future price of the commodity. As a result, spot prices will reflect current supply and demand, not future price movements. Spot prices can therefore be quite volatile and move independently from forward prices. According to the unbiased forward hypothesis, the difference between these prices will equal the expected price change of the commodity over the period.
> 
> A simple example: even if you know tomatoes are cheap in July and will be expensive in January, you can't buy them and take delivery in July, since they will spoil before you can take advantage of January's high prices. The July price will reflect tomato supply and demand in July. The forward price for January will reflect the market's expectations of supply and demand in January. July tomatoes are effectively a different commodity from January tomatoes (contrast contango and backwardation).


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Since both sites say spot price and are US sites I presumed they were both NYMEX... but that is not made clear.




The quoted 'Spot Price' matches the LGE quote.

So, these US sites must trade through and quote the LGE... but in true US patriotic and misleading style, kitco quotes NY time while USA Gold quotes AESDT.


----------



## Sean K

Here's another view considering a few factors pointing to gold stocks putting in a bottom and rallying later in August.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/jul302008.html


Discusses Seasonal gold:

gold has a tendency to make a peak in the April-May time period and then consolidate through the end of August and then breakout in September and have its best months through the end of the year. This seasonal pattern held true in this gold bull market except for last year when the whole stock market experienced its first subprime meltdown last August.

The XAU and gold ratio:

The XAU to gold ratio has traded between .16 and .27. Basically when the ratio is under a fifth of the price of gold (.20) gold stocks are cheap when compared to the metal, especially when the ratio gets under .19. As we are about to go to press the XAU to gold ratio is getting close to .18

Bollinger bands:

with the HUI lower 200-day Bollinger Band now at 385 the HUI is near long-term support.

Stochastics:

Momentum indicators for the HUI and XAU, such as the daily stochastics are now oversold. Once they bottom and begin to rally I expect them to test their July highs within a few weeks. I then expect that they'll consolidate a bit more and then breakout by the end of August to begin a new bull run.


Looks like oil might be pausing for the minute, but I've seen some $100 calls. Certainly needed to make a pause after the parabolic run up to $150 in short time. Was obviously overdone and POG was going to be effected during a correction pending other events.


----------



## Sakk

Strong bottom reversal signal for Goldcorp  code:GG  (US Stock)

Placed a buy stop 39.00 limit 39.39 ISLP 36.67


----------



## MRC & Co

Good 'spot' Sakk.  Out of interest, you don't wait for confirmation by the following candle for these shooting star and hammer reversals?  I find it one of the most crucial elements.  Of course, you miss a small part of the profits, but quite a number of these hammer reversals can fizz out if there is not follow on confirmation.


----------



## MRC & Co

wayneL said:


> NYMEX is a futures exchange, so no immediate selttlement/delivery there, nor over at CBOT....
> just found this - might explain (different to the "spot contract" in futures).
> 
> In gold - the futures price, minus cost of carry.




Good article Wayne.  

As I understood it (only studied stock index futures), the price is simply spot, plus cost of carry and divs.  So, assume no divs and the interest rate is 1.5% for a month, then the price of an index at say 1000 points for a month expiration would be 1015.  Or 1000 x 1.015.  This would represent fair value.

If the DOW or S&P were trading at a premium at close, arbitragers would come in at open in New York and buy shares whilst selling futures in Chicago.  

This would all be done by bots and quant algos now I guess.


----------



## explod

On the daily chart we have a reversal.   My take from technical is that gold will work up from here.  A close on the daily of $US980 is required for an asault on the March high.

An appearance of US dollar weakness overnight if confirmed tonight will be interesting.


----------



## Sakk

MRC & Co said:


> Good 'spot' Sakk.  Out of interest, you don't wait for confirmation by the following candle for these shooting star and hammer reversals?  I find it one of the most crucial elements.  Of course, you miss a small part of the profits, but quite a number of these hammer reversals can fizz out if there is not follow on confirmation.




No.  I go on the reversal signal.  Waiting on confirmation, leads to greater drawdowns for my system.  

I have a high rate of breakeven trades and if I wait for a confirmation candle, these breakeven trades would turn into -0.5R to -1R losses causing larger and more frequent drawdowns.

What I've found, and this is only from my observation and trading results, is that once a bottom reversal candle is confirmed, you either get immediate upward price movement typically allowing you to move to breakeven in a day or two or two to three days sideways movement which allows you to move to breakeven or exit with a very small loss.....usually within -0.5R

It's kind of like a spring, the price rejects the lows and bounces up, depending on the force it will either continue, slow down over a few bars and continue falling or ocassionally reverses violently.  

Just to add, laziness leading to breaking your own trading rules,
almost always leads to missed opportunities and losing money.

In the GG trade above I took the signal without checking one of my rules, which is " Don't take a trade if earnings is to be announced within 10 trading days"  Well.......earnings was released the next day ....looks like I'll be stopped out. 

An interesting thread starter could be on When has laziness cost/made or saved you $$ ........or your rear


----------



## wavepicker

When last Apocalyto and myself posted we made some quite good short term calls on the downtrend. We lost our way somewhat expecting a continuation and the market did not play ball with our thoughts as it decided to retest the previous high.

These are our current short term musings (both EW and Cycle Analysis) for Gold. Like Oil and the Euro and the AUDUSD Gold appears to have completed 5 waves down as well as reaching the lower boundaries of our Cycle Analsyis bands and should now rally back up to the nominal at least at 940. Thereafter I am betting on a multi year decline alongside the AUDUSD and Euro as they correct the last 5 years of advances as per the long term EW labels on our charts some months ago which unlike our short term analysis has never been invalidated and as such needs no updating (kennas)

Cheers


----------



## CamKawa

Interesting chart WP, this is what my daily chart is saying:

ADX -> sell signal, with a weak trend
RSI -> not technically oversold but it may have reached a low compared to recent history 
STO -> is saying buy
MACD -> is saying sell
Is that a fair interpretation?


----------



## MRC & Co

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Professor, you anywhere around here?  This would be your cup of tea wouldn't it?  Lots of pretty colour.


----------



## wavepicker

CamKawa said:


> Interesting chart WP, this is what my daily chart is saying:
> 
> ADX -> sell signal, with a weak trend
> RSI -> not technically oversold but it may have reached a low compared to recent history
> STO -> is saying buy
> MACD -> is saying sell
> Is that a fair interpretation?





Hello Camkawa, 

One word sums is up: AMBIGUOUS
You know a wise veteran trader once said to me :

*"Using lagging indicators is like chasing shadows across a wall"*

I would have to say, he was bang on right.

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

MRC & Co said:


> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> 
> Professor, you anywhere around here?  This would be your cup of tea wouldn't it?  Lots of pretty colour.




nah not that much colour(no offence CamKawa)


The cheek of some folk around here..........


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And so it has come to pass. The fear that gold equities will be 'contaminated' by the rest of the market negative contagion has eventuated. All the while the AU price of gold has traded around $AU970, but always above $950 for several weeks now, helped by the tanking $AU. So why the panic? Value investors will see bargains?

Waiting for the resolution of the consolidating wedge? Started accumulation phase long gold & equities for September break out?


----------



## CamKawa

LGL a is down 8.89% and AVO 7.56%. Maybe they have been tainted with the BHP and RIO brush which are both down about 5.8%. Has the commodities boom gone bust? Where's the Aussie going to be come Christmas?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CamKawa said:


> LGL a is down 8.89% and AVO 7.56%. Maybe they have been tainted with the BHP and RIO brush which are both down about 5.8%. Has the commodities boom gone bust? Where's the Aussie going to be come Christmas?




I'm trying to stay focused on the 'big picture' underlying fundamentals while all hell breaks loose? If the interest rate cycle here is heading down and we get a recession then the Aussie is toast, which will keep supporting the local price.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=315495&postcount=4688



> We will be in recession in 2009
> Leverage into gold & cash & food supply
> *Short the Aussie dollar*
> *Commodities will correct*


----------



## CamKawa

Wow, NCM is down 11.57%! Talk about head for hills.


----------



## Whiskers

wavepicker said:


> When last Apocalyto and myself posted we made some quite good short term calls on the downtrend. We lost our way somewhat expecting a continuation and the market did not play ball with our thoughts as it decided to retest the previous high.
> 
> These are our current short term musings (both EW and Cycle Analysis) for Gold. Like Oil and the Euro and the AUDUSD Gold appears to have completed 5 waves down as well as reaching the lower boundaries of our Cycle Analsyis bands and should now rally back up to the nominal at least at 940. Thereafter I am betting on a multi year decline alongside the AUDUSD and Euro as they correct the last 5 years of advances as per the long term EW labels on our charts some months ago which unlike our short term analysis has never been invalidated and as such needs no updating (kennas)
> 
> Cheers




I haven't looked at the POG chart for awhile, but it would be interesting to see the current action on that cycle chart of yours WP. It looks like that little reversal was a bit of a fizzer eh.

I get a pretty good H&S which agrees with my wave count for a short term bottom 'C' about 850.


----------



## wavepicker

Hello whiskers, my cyclic bands said a move back up to 940 before this thumping would occur. Made a meal of that one huh??? Thems the breaks!!  Overall though they give pretty good signals except on rare occasions like this when the market is in a hurry to move down!! The smaller you go in the timeframes the harder it is to trade!!
Long terms EW analysis of Gold and AUDUSD seems to be turning out very well though. I have been waiting for this correction since late last year and it has finally arrived! IMO it will be a multi year affair


Cheers


----------



## Whiskers

wavepicker said:


> Hello whiskers, my cyclic bands said a move back up to 940 before this thumping would occur. Made a meal of that one huh??? Thems the breaks!!  Overall though they give pretty good signals except on rare occasions like this when the market is in a hurry to move down!! The smaller you go in the timeframes the harder it is to trade!!
> Long terms EW analysis of Gold and AUDUSD seems to be turning out very well though. I have been waiting for this correction since late last year and it has finally arrived! IMO it will be a multi year affair
> 
> 
> Cheers




Yeah, I've been waiting since the end of last year from a FA perspective for a turn around in the currencies which will eventually help Aus resource stocks.

But the surge in oil was the red herring there that I hadn't studied close enough. It's dead in the water now though I think.

There's little doubt that we're on the way now though. I fully expected the AUD to tank first and more than the rise in the USD. The sooner the USD index gets up now the sooner the markets will go BULListic again.


----------



## wavepicker

Whiskers said:


> There's little doubt that we're on the way now though. I fully expected the AUD to tank first and more than the rise in the USD. The sooner the USD index gets up now the sooner the markets will go BULListic again.




That ending diagonal pattern in the AUDUSD took forever to finish, got real sluggish toward the end. Only one result from an ED, a very sharp reversal. I hold USD ATM, but me thinks the AUD could be headed back to 70-75c which is a long ways off still!!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Whiskers said:


> There's little doubt that we're on the way now though. I fully expected the AUD to tank first and more than the rise in the USD. The sooner the USD index gets up now the sooner the markets will go BULListic again.




FWIW, I see gold has finally pierced the lower trend line I had, a capitulation dip?, hopefully for a short tail excursion through it, which should be followed by a resumption of the USD bear after a 4 week run and gold strength to test the upper symetrical wedge line again.

Oil is 'basing' around 120, Wall street have had their day in the sun, time for reality again - who's turn is it for a write-off/bankruptcy?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And the focus, still, is the naked level of fear by the US Fed that shows up in the relentless debasement of the US economy by 'creating' more IOU's - MZM Money Supply. That's *2 TRILLION* in a year! Why buy something that is increasing in supply ie $USD?


----------



## Sean K

Hovering around 200d ma, which has been support for some time. And, completing the H&S perhaps. Oversold stochs. And close to $860 ish support. All conspiring perhaps?

Or, we're looking at the start of a significant change maybe? But if so, how long?

Yes, good work kennas. It could go anywhere.  

But long term, USD doomed, gold up. 

Poor LGL and NCM


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> FWIW, I see gold has finally pierced the lower trend line I had, a capitulation dip?, hopefully for a short tail excursion through it, which should be followed by a resumption of the USD bear after a 4 week run and gold strength to test the upper symetrical wedge line again.
> 
> Oil is 'basing' around 120, Wall street have had their day in the sun, time for reality again - who's turn is it for a write-off/bankruptcy?




Gold is just hanging on in the short term until Tropical Storm Edouard goes away. It looks like it's weaker than expected and phisselling out. 

Your right in so far as the economic statistics go uncle, but I think the US will feel a big sigh of relief that POO has, or rather (dare I say) is crashing back to acceptable levels that consumer confidence and the economy will rebound spectacularly supported further by the strengthening USD. 

Consequently I see gold being out of favour for awhile until the economy starts going off the rails again or supply starts contracting... which it probably will do as a consequence of a lot of mining operations being put on care and maintaince or upgrades deferred while oil was going balistic.

However, bear in mind that in AUD terms it probably won't change so dramatically.


----------



## Whiskers

kennas said:


> Hovering around 200d ma, which has been support for some time. And, completing the H&S perhaps. Oversold stochs. And close to $860 ish support. All conspiring perhaps?
> 
> Or, we're looking at the start of a significant change maybe? But if so, how long?
> 
> Yes, good work kennas. It could go anywhere.




Lol, let me help ya out kennas. 

The weekly MACD tells the story for me.

Yer know what I reckon. That EW count I got looks like being a flat. I reckon the POG only kicked on the last week of June because POO did... therefore we wouldn't have had the last shoulder and it would have been a straight impulsive leg down.



> But long term, USD doomed, gold up.




Still agree there, but I still have to eat in the meantime... can't hold my breath that long. 



> Poor LGL and NCM




Yes indeed. Theres been a few that just seemed to dive, or was that die, the last couple of days.


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> Yes indeed. Theres been a few that just seemed to dive, or was that die, the last couple of days.



Bought more of both in the past week.  

Apparantly, Merrilly Lunching are exiting LGL and were most of the volume the past few days. Obviously no idea how much they're diluting to. They must need cash for some reason.....


Are gold stocks leading gold at the moment?


----------



## Whiskers

kennas said:


> Are gold stocks leading gold at the moment?




From all the reports etc I've been reading, it seems that production costs are what's really worrying directors and ultimately shareholders... especially insto's that are short of cash or prefer to get at least a small positive return in the bank. 

So it may take a little while for people to feel confident oil is gonna stay down and then when they see the AUD doing them a favour falling as well they'll start coming back into the market.

I reckon it's simple... but the average person on the street is still worrying and talking about high oil. I think probably they won't feel comfortable until the bowser price has come back to match the crude falls.

PS: I still like my theory that a lot of cash will find it's way back into shares as it leaves commodoties, oil and gold in particular. Don't know the numbers, but it must be huge sums deserting oil atm.


----------



## bean

HUI closed today @356 
And the action of the last few days in GOLD stocks sure feels like Gold bull is over.  



bean said:


> Do we have a massive H & S on the HUI
> Will there be panic selling soon in the Gold stocks as the HUI breaks down under 380.  Sellers believe the Gold Bull is over?
> View attachment 22796


----------



## wavepicker

bean said:


> HUI closed today @356
> And the action of the last few days in GOLD stocks sure feels like Gold bull is over.




Sure is bean, for a few years anyway. My premise is, forget commodities and start buying very cheap stocks in particular clean technology related


----------



## explod

Ye all of little faith.

Gold is up $US 200 on this time 12 months ago.  It has had a little float down to an area of support that it keeps visiting and everyone has run for the hills.

After the US Presidential election us bugs will have our day.   In the meantime those in pysical are well ahead of the pack.   Yawn, got the paper, read the net, back to bed for awhile.


----------



## wavepicker

explod said:


> Ye all of little faith.
> 
> Gold is up $US 200 on this time 12 months ago.  It has had a little float down to an area of support that it keeps visiting and everyone has run for the hills.
> 
> After the US Presidential election us bugs will have our day.   In the meantime those in pysical are well ahead of the pack.   Yawn, got the paper, read the net, back to bed for awhile.





Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod


Cheers


----------



## explod

wavepicker said:


> Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod
> 
> 
> Cheers




There is no arrogance in following simple fundamentals, paper money is becoming worthless due to debt but gold is a tangible that will cushion ones position.  

And why do you have to sound nasty all the time.   Seems we have been down this track before.   You called it wrong and went a way for a long time.


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod
> 
> Cheers



Cripes WP! I can't believe your being critical of someone else in this manner after your down down down she goes episode which ended up being horribly wrong. That wasn't 9 years ago either.


----------



## Temjin

wavepicker said:


> Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod
> 
> 
> Cheers




WP, I used to have a little respect for your EW skills, but that setence of yours just blew that little bit away. Criticising someone does not lead you anywhere. You have your own opinions based on your own analysis, but we have ours own. It doesn't mean we will be right and neither you will be so as well. 

The fundamental issues are just too big to ignore for some of us. Of course, those who trade on a purely mechanical way and on a different timeframe will certainly ignore that. 



And to get back on topic, gold look ridiciously cheap now. I will wait for a confirmation on the weekly signal before getting back in. Been waiting for the seasonal weakness to reach its bottom and it's all going according to plan "so far".


----------



## refined silver

explod said:


> And why do you have to sound nasty all the time.   Seems we have been down this track before.   You called it wrong and went a way for a long time.




Exactly! WP was as arrogant, critical and mocking as possible a few months ago, yet he managed to pick the exact low of the move to become more vocal about calling for a huge down move. You've just shown up again and called for a short term rally and multi-year decline! Totally wrong on both counts. Talk about being a contra-indicator!

Oil is a side-show in gold, The Euro/USD is the main driver at present. For Au to decline long term. USD had to enter a long term bull-market (which at least you recognise). There is not a snowball in hell's chance the USD is entering a multi-year bull. Bailouts are increasing, banks are going broke, since profits are cratering, so will tax receipts, while expenditures explode. That means the Budget Deficit is going to increase exponentially, which will need overseas funding. Who wants to fund more billions (trillions?) in USD that all countries and SWFs are already way overweight in?


----------



## CamKawa

The POG falls and bitchiness starts...


----------



## bean

I am still a BULL and the thing is I cannot believe the price I am paying for Gold stocks with the POG over US$870 AUD 950.
If someone had said a couple of years ago that you would be paying X for some gold stock  today or tomorrow.

You would have been thinking the POG would have to be US$600 or less

Is today a short term bottom?  then a rise before the final wave down.
Yes Kennas still waiting for that final bottom.


----------



## nunthewiser

CamKawa said:


> The POG falls and bitchiness starts...




hahahahahahahah piccy  of the year  cheers put a smile on my dial with that one


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Refined Silver has summed it up nicely - if the US was a company why would you buy it's shares (currency)? A sobering statistic - if all the taxpayers in the US were to pay ALL of their wages & salaries as tax to the government, they would still not be able to cover their outgoings. They need foreigners to subsidise them. Capital dilution on a vast scale going on, so, why buy something that is being diluted all the time??

It's the last great suckers rotation - get set.

$AU gold price approx $955!!


----------



## cuttlefish

Gold stocks have certainly been hit hard. The production cost issue is going to keep sending stocks to the wall at these prices too imo.  I still see some good quality being sold along with the other stuff and have been moving into more defensive positions and also cash, but haven't been nimble enough not to get singed along the way. Key ingredients being cash, production or imminent production, simplicity, and grade.

At current prices with rising costs a lot of the marginal producers won't be able to sustain production so we'll see a drop in supply - but the positive effect of that won't necessarily be seen for months or years.

I still expect that fear on the USD side could set in at any time and cause things to go very bullish for gold and we might be starting to see some capitulation in the gold junior end.  (a lot of the capitulators won't rise again of course but this sort of market will create good opportunities as well).


----------



## explod

bean said:


> I am still a BULL and the thing is I cannot believe the price I am paying for Gold stocks with the POG over US$870 AUD 950.
> If someone had said a couple of years ago that you would be paying X for some gold stock  today or tomorrow.
> 
> You would have been thinking the POG would have to be US$600 or less
> 
> Is today a short term bottom?  then a rise before the final wave down.
> Yes Kennas still waiting for that final bottom.




Good to see you back Bean, and yes anything can happen.   Was informed some years ago that when gold really came onto the radar screen it would become very volotile.

As an alternative to fiat (paper) money it is acutely political in the economic sense.

It is why Gordon Brown (England) sold it down at turn of century.  They were the arrogant ones and believed invicible in the creation of the derivative systems across the globe.  And yes the black boxes are still doing it well, trouble is the foundation institutions themselves are going broke.

For every up (and lets face it, on debt they have had a great run) there is a down.

Time itself of course will be the judge.

We live in very interesting times.


----------



## bean

Is the short term bottom in for POG and gold stocks 
Unfortunately not at the moment 
Buy end of the week


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Is the short term bottom in for POG and gold stocks
> Unfortunately not at the moment
> Buy end of the week



 

Oh God, here we go again.

Great to have you back Bean.


----------



## refined silver

I'm not an ultra S/T trader, but there seems to be a bit of a pattern that may be tradable.

When Aus gold stocks get sold down hard (such as yesterday), that night often seems to see a decent drop in Au prices. It may be tradable to go short Au futures for a 12hr turnaround.

A Friday Aus gold share drop seems less predictable for the above.


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> I'm not an ultra S/T trader, but there seems to be a bit of a pattern that may be tradable.
> 
> When Aus gold stocks get sold down hard (such as yesterday), that night often seems to see a decent drop in Au prices. It may be tradable to go short Au futures for a 12hr turnaround.
> 
> A Friday Aus gold share drop seems less predictable for the above.




Well I dunno but compelled to buy some more SBM today as my gut feels the gold price is floating around support that should hold.   Huge rally on the Dow usually followed by a fall of it and US dollar.


----------



## qmanthebarbarian

CamKawa said:


> The POG falls and bitchiness starts...




love it!!!!

hall of famer!


----------



## Whiskers

bean said:


> I am still a BULL and the thing is I cannot believe the price I am paying for Gold stocks with the POG over US$870 AUD 950.
> If someone had said a couple of years ago that you would be paying X for some gold stock  today or tomorrow.
> 
> You would have been thinking the POG would have to be US$600 or less
> 
> Is today a short term bottom?  then a rise before the final wave down.
> Yes Kennas still waiting for that final bottom.




I have to admit I was expecting gold to come back a bit further than it did last year too, but as we all know now oil went balistic and skewed things up a bit. 

I'm not really expecting a crash per se in gold, more a bit of a woobbly patch as the currencies undergo a short term realignment against a bit firmer USD.

But having said that, I suppose we should be on the lookout for a bit of a knee-jerk over reaction and sell off in gold as the euphoria of low oil prices starts to set in again.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Seems we have been down this track before.   You called it wrong and went a way for a long time.




ha ha ha. 

There does appear to be a trend to these appearances.  

In all seriousness though, I am a bit worried about POG in the medium-term now.  For the first time in some time, I have started to see some negative sentiment in the resources sector, even noting some big players (funds) have been exiting some long-term positions in the sector.

Wait until the end of the Olympics IMO to see what starts to come out of China, negative news and commodities will be in trouble, at least base metals.  Ultimately a fall in inflation and the POG will result.  May just be what the US needs to get itself out of this stagflation problem without needing a deep recession.  But as UF says, there are some deeper core problems which will surface in the longer-term.

Sidelines definately the clearest place when it comes to the POG for me at the moment, or for the market in general.  Prefer to limit my asymmetrical leverage and as of a few weeks ago, geometric profits have said goodbye!  

I am looking for a bounce in the short-term of the general market and a continued slide of POO into 100-110.  If only just a 'feeling' :


----------



## explod

From the Gold Market report, this morning our time:.



> (from MarketWatch) --
> Gold prices moved higher in electronic trading on Globex immediately after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 2%, then moved lower again. The Fed made its announcement at about 2:15 p.m. EDT -- after regular trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed. The Fed gave no sign that it plans to change policy in the foreseeable future. The Fed statement "indicates it is returning to monetary wimp mode," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. The Federal Open Market Committee "is not going to raise rates till inflation or dollar depreciation reaches massive proportion." So the "dollar will return to [a] bear market, and gold will make a new high by October," said Schmidt, in emailed comments. "Gold will now begin to gradually refocus on the longer term fundamentals," he said.




Quite a few gold stocks are forming a reverse hammer into the close today, next few days will be interesting


----------



## elnico50

Excuse my ignorance, but how does one obtain data in order to chart spot gold? 

I use Incredible Charts, and the code for AU gold is "GOLD". Is there a code for the US price? Perhaps from Yahoo?

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Kennas, 

Short term swings on the way down were good. F....ed the re test up I agree. Long term bearish wavecount is intact and not violated. Always difficult to cal short term swings.

Explod, you are a phoney. You claim yo be up 45% since last year on physical when in actual fact in AUD terms you are up less than half that. Just be honest. All this hoohah about cleaning up on Gold for all these months... Man you must have a lot of time on your hands..

RS and Temjin, I lost my repect for both of you about a couple of hundred posts back.

It ain't half obvious all you dudes are long Gold and hurting.

Catch you guys again at $600. PS I see higher lows on the USD, Gold is going  down before going up.


----------



## Temjin

wavepicker said:


> RS and Temjin, I lost my repect for both of you about a couple of hundred posts back.
> 
> It ain't half obvious all you dudes are long Gold and hurting.
> 
> Catch you guys again at $600. PS I see higher lows on the USD, Gold is going down before going up.




Wow, you are sure to make a quick assumption that we are all currently on gold long. I'm not sure about RS or others, but I have been on side line for quite a while now since getting out (while not at the top of course) just after the $1030 crash down. 

So you automatically don't respect ANYONE who have a opposite view of your opinions? Well done, I wonder how you get by life everyday?   I suggest that you learn to disagree with someone and just accept it without resorting to criticism. Check my previous posts, I have NEVER directly criticised your trading methods, just the way you deal with others who don't agree with you. 

While I don't know about others, I never gave a 100% guarantee prediction on the future direction of gold. Nothing is certain because anything could happen. However, you sound like as if you are betting your life saving into gold reaching USD $600 and that you are 100% certain that it will go that way. 

I wonder if you ever had a moment thought about your analysis is not correct? What if your wave counts are wrong? What will you do then? I remember Nick taught us that not every single charts can be intrepreted by EW alone and forcing the theory on it will not work. It's not the "holy grail" to 100% accurate prediction.


----------



## bean

For EW re POG and where its going
http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field080608.html

Yes POG will be going down not a low as I thought last year,   Its still in a BULL
US $ index its about 74 at present 
Long term view will see it finish in the low to mid 30's

So figure what the POG will be then

It doesn't mean POG will double
Before calculating see what the US $ index was when POG was US$250  and the % both have moved since then


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Temjin said:


> Wow, you are sure to make a quick assumption that we are all currently on gold long. I'm not sure about RS or others, but I have been on side line for quite a while now since getting out (while not at the top of course) just after the $1030 crash down.
> 
> So you automatically don't respect ANYONE who have a opposite view of your opinions? Well done, I wonder how you get by life everyday?   I suggest that you learn to disagree with someone and just accept it without resorting to criticism. Check my previous posts, I have NEVER directly criticised your trading methods, just the way you deal with others who don't agree with you.
> 
> While I don't know about others, I never gave a 100% guarantee prediction on the future direction of gold. Nothing is certain because anything could happen. However, you sound like as if you are betting your life saving into gold reaching USD $600 and that you are 100% certain that it will go that way.
> 
> I wonder if you ever had a moment thought about your analysis is not correct? What if your wave counts are wrong? What will you do then? I remember Nick taught us that not every single charts can be intrepreted by EW alone and forcing the theory on it will not work. It's not the "holy grail" to 100% accurate prediction.




good on u temjin.

I bought up all the Kleenex stocks i could get my hands on after reading that!

You're going to make me rich!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> For EW re POG and where its going
> http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field080608.html
> 
> Yes POG will be going down not a low as I thought last year,   Its still in a BULL
> US $ index its about 74 at present
> Long term view will see it finish in the low to mid 30's
> 
> So figure what the POG will be then
> 
> It doesn't mean POG will double
> Before calculating see what the US $ index was when POG was US$250  and the % both have moved since then




so good to be reading these posts again! Bean when u writing a book? when u do put me down for one!


----------



## Sean K

7 Aug:



bean said:


> Is the short term bottom in for POG and gold stocks
> Unfortunately not at the moment
> Buy end of the week




Keeping this for posterity Bean.

You and josjes may have to get a room....


----------



## cuttlefish

Flight to cash will continue for a while and keep a dampener on stock prices I suspect but the gold price itself I think might be ready to move back up into the $900's over the next few months and maybe even tackle the $1000 level again as we head into xmas, driven by capital flowing out of USD based assets.  Central bank sales are the only potential damper on that but I see it well supported in the mid to high $800's.  If it made a decisive move down below the $820 sort of area I'd revise that outlook.

In the meantime on the gold stock front I still suspect we'll see a few more gold producers follow in VRE and MON's footsteps and disappear from the boards, and a lot of junior explorers fizzle off into a horizonless neverland of low liquidity and market caps sitting around cash backing.

I've got a reasonable cash weighting at the moment and also reshuffled to more defensive gold (and oil) stock holdings.   In spite of the selldown I still see a little more room on the downside for quite a few of the gold stocks and I also see a lot that I don't think will be recovering any time soon, if ever, unless gold runs strongly, but I'm also seeing the value opportunities arising amongst the field as well.

I think the fundamentals are still sound for gold price to continue to strengthen over the next two years through a combination of a drop in supply and an increased demand as a store of value away from the USD.


----------



## kbxk508

Interesting posts in the last few days,

Both $Gold and $USD Index have either just crossed or touched there 200 Day MA - key Support/Resistance levels in the past. How this plays out in the next week or two will be critical to see if there is a continuation or reversal of current sentiment.

Refer to the following link http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui and use symbols $GOLD and $USD. Sorry, not a member so cannot download.

I wouldn't be surprised to see further declines in $Gold over the next few days - but whatever happens it is currently o'sold while the $USD Index is o'bought going by RSI's.

Here's an interesting look at the direction of $Gold short term using EW principles by Alf Field.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/aug062008.html

I'm not claiming to agree or disagree with this and all arguments for the short and intermediate direction of $Gold have merit. Although, I think there is not much doubt in the long term direction - just my oplinion, DYOR.

Interesting to note the US Fed and ECB are currently holding rates and AUS Reserve is indicating they may drop rates.

Is the so called 'demand destruction' in commodities real?

Another variable to look at is the 10-year Treasury Note, symbol $TNX which is also near it's 200 Day MA - any weakness in the 10-year bond will be bullish for $Gold. Cheers. 

kbxk508


----------



## kbxk508

kbxk508 said:


> Is the so called 'demand destruction' in commodities real?
> 
> kbxk508




As a footnote to my previous post, it would be brave (or foolish) for the US Fed to raise rates in a meaningful way in the short term as this would be catastrophic / destructive to the housing market and would lead to more foreclosures, delinquancies etc. This would also have a negative impact on banks (if you can believe what you read), and would be bullish $Gold. On the other hand if rates remain low then this too would be bullish $Gold - the key component being time. Of course, if the housing crisis is not as bad as what is made out - all bets are off. Just my thoughts. 

Commodities of all types have plunged recently, lead by a $30 drop in Oil, following the ECB's 0.25% increase on 3rd July where market psychology switched from “fears of inflation” to worries about “demand destruction", and again I ask the same question

Is the so called "demand destruction" in commodities real?

kbxk508


----------



## Sean K

kbxk508 said:


> Is the so called "demand destruction" in commodities real?
> 
> kbxk508



If you listened to or saw any of the presentations at the Diggers and Dealers conference, you'd have to say stronger for longer, supercycle still in tact, technical and sentiment driven sell off.

(some commod GMs and CEOs may have a bias )

They obviously assume the coming world recession will not dint demand that much.


----------



## Sean K

100% from May/June low and mid term support at $860, and 200 da ma around this level. Almost 50% from longer term breakout at $650. Next stop $830 ish on breakdown. 

Maybe.


----------



## explod

elnico50 said:


> Excuse my ignorance, but how does one obtain data in order to chart spot gold?
> 
> I use Incredible Charts, and the code for AU gold is "GOLD". Is there a code for the US price? Perhaps from Yahoo?
> 
> Cheers




No one is ignorant, we just know different things.

The chart I use is free, it can give you live 10second, 1 minute, 10 minute, hourly, daily and weekly. The latter can go back 10 years.  Can make it candle stick or the others.

Need to navigate the site and you can have silver, oil, corn etc.

It is www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php 

When you get it up take curser to top right of small chart to options, get your setting, then repeat and detach chart, enlarge to full size, then you can go back to home chart and brign up other commodities and have them all running together.


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> 7 Aug:
> 
> 
> 
> Keeping this for posterity Bean.
> 
> You and josjes may have to get a room....



Kennas
well will find out soon as POG and POS are testing area's I was given for a possible bounce or a halt to stop the slide.
But I have been given a lower target if this gives way.

"There is also a conventional support at 869.00 -- an important low made on June 12 -- that could be expected to temporarily halt, or possibly even reverse, gold's slide."

December Gold
Last 65-Days   
Highest  999.4 on 07/15/08
Lowest  869.0 on 06/12/08


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Kennas
> well will find out soon as POG and POS are testing area's I was given for a possible bounce or a halt to stop the slide.
> But I have been given a lower target if this gives way.
> 
> "There is also a conventional support at 869.00 -- an important low made on June 12 -- that could be expected to temporarily halt, or possibly even reverse, gold's slide."



Bean, 

Calling these precise levels is fraught with danger, IMO. As is calling days for bottoms and tops. The most dedicated TA here, WP, is still working on his time and price analysis....

I think you're much better going for zones and if you're into cycles then give a zone of time and price. I am yet to see anyone consistantly give exact time and price movements. A one off correct call does not cut it. 

Cripes, if anyone could call time and price consistantly why would they be wasting their time here?


In regard to 'possible bounce' you wouldn't need to be a rocket surgeon to see the $860 ish support level.


----------



## bean

well that number appears to have halted POG slide for the moment.  But no bounce so far.

The next number if that gives way is about $20 lower.
I won't give the 'exact' number .

If the HUI or XAU Indexs fall hard tonight that will be very Bearish as they will be taken out lows set on wednesday.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Deja vu?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Great night  hey Gold bugs!

LOL so any of you looked at daily chart of USD index?  looks like a break out to me Ha Ha Ha

USD is dead yeh right!  

Cleaned up tonight shorting eur/usd god bless the flight to safety! 

Good trading

**And yes I do see a anti usd rally into next week so dont get to excited, normal to see a counter rally after these kinds of moves.**


----------



## wayneL

>Apocalypto< said:


> Great night  hey Gold bugs!
> 
> LOL so any of you looked at daily chart of USD index?  looks like a break out to me Ha Ha Ha
> 
> USD is dead yeh right!
> 
> Cleaned up tonight shorting eur/usd god bless the flight to safety!
> 
> Good trading
> 
> **And yes I do see a anti usd rally into next week so dont get to excited, normal to see a counter rally after these kinds of moves.**



Though they probably deserved that, it doesn't mean you shouldn't be looking at yourself in the mirror.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> Though they probably deserved that, it doesn't mean you shouldn't be looking at yourself in the mirror.




LOl agree mate I am no angle. 

But could not resist it.


----------



## chops_a_must

>Apocalypto< said:


> LOl agree mate I am no angle.



Obtuse would be my bet.

Definitely not a cute.


----------



## cuttlefish

>Apocalypto< said:


> USD is dead yeh right!




Yep.  It is.

Ever cut the head off a chook apocalypto?


----------



## refined silver

Thank heavens for that!

The USD has finally spiked up to the underside of its long term downtrend, burning a few shorts in the process. 

My guess, is that is pretty much the USD rally topped out as fundamentals and long term TA take over, and at the same time gold has now hit its downside H&S target.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> Bean,
> 
> Calling these precise levels is fraught with danger, IMO. As is calling days for bottoms and tops. The most dedicated TA here, WP, is still working on his time and price analysis....
> 
> I think you're much better going for zones and if you're into cycles then give a zone of time and price. I am yet to see anyone consistantly give exact time and price movements. A one off correct call does not cut it.
> 
> Cripes, if anyone could call time and price consistantly why would they be wasting their time here?
> 
> 
> In regard to 'possible bounce' you wouldn't need to be a rocket surgeon to see the $860 ish support level.




Kennas, 

I started working on Fixed Time cycles Analsyis a year ago. Before then I was using in isolation EW and dynamic Cycles Analysis.

In the 2.5 years I have posted here, some markets I have called correctly to within a few days and others poorly, like most other posters. I must admit I am a perfectionist in anything I do. But does one need to be perfect in this business? Simply realising the trend has changed quite early in the piece and having the confidence to stand by the analsyis and take the trade is enough IMO.

The one thing I have done correctly on this site IMO is put backed my  analysis with logic and reasoning via charts, both the good calls and the bad as the minutia of the message/opinion I needed to be portray could only be done this way. I don't believe in cheap talk.


Unfortunately have been unable to nail anything to the day. *Except *the day of last low in the XAO. Not price mind you(that is a different and more difficult animal altogther). The reason I was able to do this is because I have made a huge breakthrough in the last few months by finding out the correct cycle lengths to use in the increments of this fixed cycle analysis. Can I do this consistantly? That remains to be seen, but certainly it's a huge improvement to when I first started out 12 months ago. Between the knowledge of myself and my friend Magdoran, I think we do have enough there to call enough turns correctly for the type of trading in derivatives we pursue. It's not necessary to be bang on with shares. With options, *yes*, because they are decaying assets!

PS, I have never applied this fixed cycle  analysis to GOLD or the USD. Only the XAO at this stage. All my posts re Gold and USD  have been by eyeballing the market and EW which as you know can be subjective. But I feel that I have called Gold and the USD correctly in the long term EW charts posted earlier in the year. Short term, well... mixed.

To me Gold, Oil and AUDUSD looking very bearish and the USD is in a strong upward 3rd wave at present.

For one last time... "Trade What You See, not what you hope or wish for".
Sorry MRC, just had squeeze in one more time!!

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> Kennas,
> 
> I started working on Fixed Time cycles Analsyis a year ago. Before then I was using in isolation EW and dynamic Cycles Analysis.
> 
> ....
> 
> In the 2.5 years I have posted here, some markets I have called correctly to within a few days and others poorly, like most other posters.




I rate that you have been open enough to place calls up on the forum, very few do, but I haven't rated your criticism of other members because their opinions have been different to yours. 

Calling people amateurs, including me, has been completely out of line. Some people invest differently to you, but may have possibly done better. Who knows? 

I hope you find another audience in the cyber, or non cyber, world to provide you the feedback and development opportunities you are obviously not getting here. 

Good trading, kennas


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wavepicker said:


> Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod
> 
> 
> Cheers






>Apocalypto< said:


> Great night  hey Gold bugs!
> 
> LOL so any of you looked at daily chart of USD index?  looks like a break out to me Ha Ha Ha
> 
> USD is dead yeh right!
> 
> Cleaned up tonight shorting eur/usd god bless the flight to safety!
> 
> Good trading
> 
> **And yes I do see a anti usd rally into next week so dont get to excited, normal to see a counter rally after these kinds of moves.**




Actually I see it as the next phase starting. The currency wars have just started - every central banker for themselves now. The irony is that it is perceived as a 'flight to safety' to the $USD, whereas it should be 'still got all this fiat cash looking for a home' rotation.

It's inevitable that all the priming money has to find another boom sector, so instead of investing in something that will provide real wealth and long term employment it instead ends up on the equities no brainer money shuffle. 

Some big daily moves in everything coming up now as the credit constipation turns into the credit diarrhoea? Interest rates coming down?

$USD into the 'resistance' zone as gold hit's 'support' at $850. Aussie gold  now $960.

And the PPT know that seasonal gold strength is about to start - and at these prices again being met with strong physical demand. Give it your best shot boys 



> MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's precious metals trade is struggling to meet the heavy rush for gold and silver with prices below key psychological levels, resulting in higher premiums and late deliveries for buyers.
> "The orders are getting fulfilled in 10 days," said a dealer in one of the largest banks selling gold.
> "The premiums being quoted by suppliers are up by 10 cents to about 95 cents."
> India's gold demand picked up last week, as prices started tumbling, touching its lowest level since mid-May at 11,883 rupees per 10 grams on Friday.
> Demand intensified as a key support of 12,000 rupees per 10 grams gave way, *raising even retail demand that usually does not pick up till the festivals start around mid-August*.
> A foreign supplier said summer holidays in Europe and a *sudden pick up in demand world-wide* had affected smooth deliveries.
> "The demand started out of the blue," said Afshin Nabavi, senior vice president at MKS Finance S.A., a large supplier to India, based in Geneva.



And the last word from gold market analyst Ned Schmidt. 







> _"As is readily evident, the US$ has staged an incredible rally. That rally is one of the strongest to occur without some underlying causal event. In short, nothing readily apparent is happening around the world to cause such a move. Now, consider the weekly purchases of U.S. debt by official institutions, essentially central banks around the world. These numbers are reported weekly by the Federal Reserve, the depository for these bond holdings. *In the week ending Wednesday, official institutions made the largest net purchase of U.S. debt ever recorded.* They bought the annualized equivalent of $1.457 trillion. Those purchases created a shortage of dollars which created a massive short covering rally in the dollar. That buying pushed the dollar up almost 3% in the past week, or at a 320% annual rate."_




Which means they will have to do the same trick next week, and the next etc, to keep the jalopy on the road?


----------



## MRC & Co

wavepicker said:


> For one last time... "Trade What You See, not what you hope or wish for".
> Sorry MRC, just had squeeze in one more time!!
> 
> Cheers




ha ha, I like it.


----------



## kbxk508

Uncle Festivus said:


> Which means they will have to do the same trick next week, and the next etc, to keep the jalopy on the road?




I would agree Uncle,  

RSI $US Index now 91.9 vs RSI $Gold now 31.1

As the saying goes

"BUY when there is rioting and blood in the streets and SELL when everyone is delirously happy, dancing in the streets." _Rothschild Tango_

"The rise in the [DOW] is temporary, BKX (US bank index) has broken down yesterday. The trouble hasn't evaporated with the rise of the $US rather the debasing of currencies has began. Gold at 850 and close to its cyclical nadir in time, is an opportunity to start scaling in positions for the next month and a half. There is another test forthcoming 2nd week of November, after the road to inflationary paradise will be taken for the next 2 years." _Cyclist 8/8/08 gold's action - kitco forum_

kbxk508


----------



## Sean K

kbxk508 said:


> I would agree Uncle,
> 
> RSI $US Index now 91.9 vs RSI $Gold now 31.1
> 
> As the saying goes
> 
> "BUY when there is rioting and blood in the streets and SELL when everyone is delirously happy, dancing in the streets." _Rothschild Tango_
> 
> "The rise in the [DOW] is temporary, BKX (US bank index) has broken down yesterday. The trouble hasn't evaporated with the rise of the $US rather the debasing of currencies has began. Gold at 850 and close to its cyclical nadir in time, is an opportunity to start scaling in positions for the next month and a half. There is another test forthcoming 2nd week of November, after the road to inflationary paradise will be taken for the next 2 years." _Cyclist 8/8/08 gold's action - kitco forum_
> 
> kbxk508



I'm not as confident as you guys and think the risk is US interest rate rises, oil continued correction down to $80 (as some are quoting) with housing coming off considerably, but settling, and a general sideways move for some time.

Gold stocks seem to factoring in this type of scenario. They are leading gold down. 

Upside risk is of course the Fed lowering rates to boost consumption and save houses, as a priority over inflation, which it has done for the past few years. 

It's a guess for me which way it will go, but if history is any indicator, and human nature is followed (save your **** and get more stuff) then rates low and inflation continuing to deflate the USD. 

Just a guess. 

Damn, I hope this $860 ish support holds, might be a good entry if confirmed.


----------



## CanOz

If the latest information is anything to go by, the US consumer is spending paycheck to paycheck, and turning to credit cards for the rest. An interest rate rise would slow down the clearing of unsold houses and increase defaults. A rate decrease would allow inflation to escalate and would kill the dollar, sending commodities on a another rally.

Its hold for IR now, will oil have a little way to fall yet, and gold follow?

Cheers,


CanOZ


----------



## explod

Well for my.   In the short to medium I am ambivilent to bearish.  I do not trust the bar....ds.   However they have very little left.

Discussing with an old friend the other day we concluded that the only thing left is the the US dollar as the world reserve currency and thier war machine.   

When it was the other way around with Germany owing the US a heap Hitler created the war machine to fight thier way out of it.   Will the US do the same one day with China in an attempt to fight a way out of it too.  History tends to repeat.

Back to present, the US dollar is the vehicle for the option derivative conglomeration which seems to justify the creation of trillions and maintains the paper wealth on which they may well exist for some time.   Matters of real production or gold which have tangible value threaten that.    At all cost they will try to maintain a Republican as President (though I dont' think the democrats would know what to do either) and so the printing pretending party will continue with some strength till post Novemeber.

Gold will most likely stay within the current sideways channel of US850 to 950but anything is allways possible, a spike late this month to $US1200 could well occur on past performance to be smashed down by October (I told you so) just before that election.

We have our powder dry and will be ready.

We live in interesting times.


----------



## Whiskers

CanOz said:


> If the latest information is anything to go by, the US consumer is spending paycheck to paycheck, and turning to credit cards for the rest. An interest rate rise would slow down the clearing of unsold houses and increase defaults. A rate decrease would allow inflation to escalate and would kill the dollar, sending commodities on a another rally.
> 
> Its hold for IR now, will oil have a little way to fall yet, and gold follow?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOZ




I think your looking at the correct issues there CanOz, at least regarding gold. 

For me, I can't see an IR rise before Xmas. By then I reckon oil will be generally lower. With a short term rise in the USD I'm afraid gold may bottom at support around 800. 

FA I am holding to generally sideways for a few months yet, but until the currencies settle a bit it looks like it's going a bit lower yet. Relating in EW, if wave C is to at least equal wave A which is most often expected my rough maths gives 801.

Mind you I don't think gold is being fundamentally revalued. I think it's more to do with investors not wanting to get caught holding while the currencies realign themselves. From an Aus perspective it hasn't fallen much at all in AUD compared to USD. So I will be grabbing a few of the species that have had a bit of a hiding lately. 

PS: Open to comment re my EW count. I'd really like to know if i've ballzed something up.


----------



## Sean K

kennas]7 Aug:

[QUOTE=bean said:


> Is the short term bottom in for POG and gold stocks
> Unfortunately not at the moment
> Buy end of the week




Keeping this for posterity Bean.

You and josjes may have to get a room....

[/QUOTE]

Maybe this Friday then Bean?

Let's hope we don't go through this BS for another few months eh?

I'm still long NCM and LGL and wish I was following my general rules of selling on breakdown of obvious S&R lines. Very disappointed in myself. Lesson learnt, again...


----------



## Aussiest

Hi Kennas,

I'm long NCM too. And didn't sell at s/r either.

Hopefully we'll see a bounce soon


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Maybe this Friday then Bean?
> 
> Let's hope we don't go through this BS for another few months eh?



Yes hopefully its all resolved in weeks rather than months
To be picking up stocks in the coming weeks at prices not seen for a few years. and prices we thought we would not see again.
It'll be like starting the Bull all over again


----------



## qmanthebarbarian

kennas said:


> I'm still long NCM and LGL and wish I was following my general rules of selling on breakdown of obvious S&R lines. Very disappointed in myself. Lesson learnt, again...




yep - TA becomes biased with FA...

EURUSD is the one to be watching - Clear downtrend. USD rally is nothing more than the ECB saying that the weak dollar, strong euro is hurting Europe...

not much support there, so not sure this gold support will be respected. 775-800 looks more likely imho - I'll be jumping in if that's the case because still too many risks ahead for gold not to rally from there.

My  - might be worth less since I finished typing...


----------



## solomon

What I find really interesting about the recent decent of the POG is that ASX:GOLD has not reflected the move down at all. What is going on with this? Is it the die hard gold bugs holding the price up, or has there been a popular (rather than institutional) move into this quasi real gold substitute? Can anyone shed some light?


----------



## explod

solomon said:


> What I find really interesting about the recent decent of the POG is that ASX:GOLD has not reflected the move down at all. What is going on with this? Is it the die hard gold bugs holding the price up, or has there been a popular (rather than institutional) move into this quasi real gold substitute? Can anyone shed some light?




Gold moves in the opposite direction to currency value.  Our dollar is down against the US dollar so our gold price moves up.    Regardless of what the press and banks want you to believe, gold is about currency value.  It is what paper money was originally based on.  It was the first monetary means of exchange for goods and its use for that purpose goes back 5,000 years.

Study the movments in international currencies against moves in the respective gold prices and you will get the idea.  Unless you understand these fundamentals it is dangerous to consider investing in it.

The answers can be found by spending a few days reading this thread.   Or Google the history of gold and currencies.

GOLD on the ASX is not a substitute.  For each unit there is supposedly one  10th of an ounce of physical gold stored in a vault on the holders behalf.  It directly reflects the current Aus gold price


----------



## solomon

Thanks explod for taking the time to educate me. So what you are saying is that the AUD price of an ounce of gold has gone up (or at least held stable) recently (despite what is happening to the USD price of gold), thanks to AUD depreciation.


----------



## refined silver

refined silver said:


> Thank heavens for that!
> 
> The USD has finally spiked up to the underside of its long term downtrend, burning a few shorts in the process.
> 
> My guess, is that is pretty much the USD rally topped out as fundamentals and long term TA take over, and at the same time gold has now hit its downside H&S target.




If you step back a bit things are always clearer.


----------



## explod

Bean, you could be the accurate one, after the latest action on the weekly we are forming a head and shoulders and could correct to support at $US640

Which would take us just past the US Presidential election.   Look out below.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Bean, you could be the accurate one, after the latest action on the weekly we are forming a head and shoulders and could correct to support at $US640
> 
> Which would take us just past the US Presidential election.   Look out below.





Bean predicted a bottom in Gold stocks for last Friday...

Which H&S explod? The last one on the chart gave a target of around $850 ish. 

Or, is this the one you mean?


----------



## explod

However, (re above) and having a step back.   We could expect strong support at around $US800 where we would complete a nice daily chart head and shoulders in about a month.

Of course anything is possible, and a look at the US dollar (as indicated by Refined Silver) will indicate that it is the key at this time.     Keeping it strong will be the task of the Plunge Protection Team till Novemeber.

We live in most interesting times.

And RF, how do you post that chart.   Have been trying for eons but says it takes too many killer bites and wont' go.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Bean predicted a bottom in Gold stocks for last Friday...
> 
> Which H&S explod? The last one on the chart gave a target of around $850 ish.
> 
> Or, is this the one you mean?




Last year he said about $US600 and he was boo hoo ed off the stage.

Bring it on Bean.


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Do we have a massive H & S on the HUI
> Will there be panic selling soon in the Gold stocks as the HUI breaks down under 380.  Sellers believe the Gold Bull is over?
> View attachment 22796



So that was on the 30th July HUI gold index was about 400.
Today's close 313.99.

Friday I said may have a short term bottom in POG but there was no bounce from US$ 869  and did mention That if that gave on the POG would be very bearish for HUI which has dropped over 12% last two days

For interest
POG has been down 7 days straight 
longest run is 9 days 

Those that believe OIL was in a bubble and Oil and Gold are aligned.

extract from 'Rick Picks' commentary

"If we sound churlish over the thrashing that precious metals have received in recent weeks, it is not because it took us by surprise. In fact, Rick’s Picks has provided a series of downbeat forecasts for gold and silver all the way down, and there is yet one more querulous target to be achieved that lies beneath even the 824.50 nadir of yesterday’s insensate plunge.  There is also to consider a worst-case fantasy target of sorts that we disseminated yesterday in the chat room:  $654. It is based on the price of gold following crude oil all the way to the bottom of its presumptive bear market.  We’ve repeatedly said that oil prices are not correcting but crashing, and this would imply they will be at least cut in half from the $148 peak recorded in mid-July. So what would $74 crude mean for gold?  Well, if bullion were to continue falling 60% as steeply as oil, which is what it’s done since crude prices began their collapse nearly a month ago, it would imply a $654 low for gold."


----------



## cuttlefish

Definitely an interesting technical zone for gold and at the moment not looking too promising having broken down through the $840 level and now testing the top of the $780-$820 band of support.  The sharpness of the moves down certainly makes it look weak on the charts.

If it gets down below $750 and stays there for a prolonged period of time (3 months+) we'll start to see quite a few production operations getting shut down as well as dramatically reduced exploration and development expenditure (plenty of projects currently in the development pipeline willl get put on hold if this eventuates) reducing the supply side and providing a good fundamental basis for the next move upwards.

As it moves down further I'm starting to accept the case that now may not be the time for gold and it might be a matter of coming back mid next year but I'm not quite there yet.

I still think gold is capable of phenomenal suprises to the upside because its the counter to the USD and the USD could capitulate if there are more icebergs.  It does seem like a lot of the dirty laundry is getting an airing at the moment with the CNN reports headlining with possible multi-trillion dollar losses from the credit crisis but that doesn't mean the real fundamental impact of such large losses has worked its way through the system yet.  We're also seeing banks taking the hit on various worthless paper so maybe we're starting to at least get visibility of the full extent of the problem - that is a milestone in itself but the losses still have to work their way through and get digested which will mean a lot more money being printed along the way.


----------



## cuttlefish

cuttlefish said:


> ... but the gold price itself I think might be ready to move back up into the $900's over the next few months and maybe even tackle the $1000 level again as we head into xmas  ...  _*If it made a decisive move down below the $820 sort of area I'd revise that outlook*_.




And just referring back to my post from the other day - its already moved down below where I was hoping it would find support - looking like the fall through $820 might be iminent but not quite there yet - a fall through and bounce back up off $780 to consolidate again in the $780/$820 band would still have me neutral to bullish short to medium term, but the momentum built up with the current falls is concerning.


----------



## GreatPig

Here's a weekly chart of the ASX GOLD stock.

Interesting the way it's been moving between the Fib levels recently.

GP


----------



## Whiskers

GreatPig said:


> Here's a weekly chart of the ASX GOLD stock.
> 
> Interesting the way it's been moving between the Fib levels recently.
> 
> GP




Gaud, I'm seeing EW waves in everything now. 

GreatPig, I'd say that's the effect of the AUD falling at a faster rate than the USD rising.


I gather some of you are tipping the USDX to break down at the trend line... about where it is now.

I'm gonna say *the USDX has put in a bottom. *

Minor leg 1 is about complete, 2 should come back to around 75 - 76. 

The first 5 minor waves should take it well into the 80's.

BUT, although I havn't completely figured the big picture in terms of EW it seems to me that even if this is a corrective leg on the way down, I think it could still get into the 90 to 100 range in the months or year ahead.


----------



## kbxk508

The gold sector is experiencing a sharp bull-market correction, but in any case the rally that follows the current steep decline should retrace a big chunk of the decline REGARDLESS of whether or not the bull market remains intact.

kbxk508


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> I'm gonna say *the USDX has put in a bottom. *
> 
> Minor leg 1 is about complete, 2 should come back to around 75 - 76.
> 
> The first 5 minor waves should take it well into the 80's.
> 
> BUT, although I havn't completely figured the big picture in terms of EW it seems to me that even if this is a corrective leg on the way down, I think it could still get into the 90 to 100 range in the months or year ahead.




I forgot to mention the significance of this to the POG. 

I think the mass exodus from previous positions has pretty well finished now and everyone will settle into the reasilation of low oil, the US economy turning around, probable inflationary pressure and rising USD.

*I reckon 800'sh is the bottom for the POG and it will zig zag back up into about the mid 900's again over the next few weeks or months.*

I'll see if I can come up with a number over the next week or soo.


----------



## steven1234

There was a fair amount of de hedging by gold miners to take advantage of a rising gold price.  Could they have been wrong in their analysis of the gold price?  Surely they must have a better idea of gold price movements than your average punter.    

This article believes that gold dehedging will now dramatically slow.  http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=59379&sn=Detail

Whiskers, that was a great call you made on Sunday 10/08/08 for gold to bottom at 801.


----------



## bean

For interest
POG has been down 8 days straight
longest run is 9 days


----------



## explod

steven1234 said:


> Whiskers, that was a great call you made on Sunday 10/08/08 for gold to bottom at 801.





Yep, agree.    And the action today indicates we are on the way back up.

But expect anything.


----------



## M34N

explod said:


> Yep, agree.    And the action today indicates we are on the way back up.
> 
> But expect anything.




So true, well done to Whiskers for picking it, phenomenal.



Whiskers said:


> I forgot to mention the significance of this to the POG.
> 
> I think the mass exodus from previous positions has pretty well finished now and everyone will settle into the reasilation of low oil, the US economy turning around, probable inflationary pressure and rising USD.
> 
> *I reckon 800'sh is the bottom for the POG and it will zig zag back up into about the mid 900's again over the next few weeks or months.*
> 
> I'll see if I can come up with a number over the next week or soo.




I dare anyone to doubt you now 

So you predict a rising US dollar and rising POG? Or are you saying a short term retrace back up for gold to mid-900's, then back down after that?


----------



## bean

Interesting POG has to over next couple of days reach X or its down another US$50 or so in quick time.

However lets hope its up for a few weeks before plunging


----------



## Whiskers

M34N said:


> So true, well done to Whiskers for picking it, phenomenal.




Well thanks fellas, but that one was pretty simple cos it played neatly by the rules. My FA confirmed the move, but my new-found interest in EW has enabled me to time and quantify it much better.

But whatever you do, don't put your life savings on my forecasts, cos I'm greener than a cucumber at this EW stuff... and only just getting the hang of proof reading my wave count.

I'm sure there are more experienced technicans out there who saw it coming too. I'm still learning this EW stuff and only posting the numbers to keep a record of my estimates and forecasts.

The real test will come when the wave structures get into some of the more complicated and ambigious moves. 



> I dare anyone to doubt you now
> 
> So you predict a rising US dollar and rising POG? Or are you saying a short term retrace back up for gold to mid-900's, then back down after that?




My most favoured position at the moment is that this is the end of a significant correction and it'll be generally up from here for quite awhile... mind you though, some of the minor wave corrections along the way may be pretty savage.

The caveat, (due to my relative inexperience) my less likely possibility, is that this is not the end of significant wave C, but a lower degree wave 1 of 3, in which case it would kick up for a few days or so and revisit the 800 level support and momentarily break it to finish wave C, as bean suggests, before pushing upwards to new highs.


----------



## BentRod

Gold is looking like a nice short on breach of around $800.


----------



## kbxk508

Most top Aussie Gold Stocks have fallen by as much as 30% in the last 30 days, e.g.

LGL was 3.40 and now 2.22
NCM was 32.47 and now 24.90
PNA was 0.91 and now 0.61 

So how much has the price of Gold in A$ dropped in the last 30 days?

Answer: -6.93%

kbxk508


----------



## Sean K

Potential bottom formed there, but I couldn't be taking a LONG term (buy and hope) position until some of those resistance lines were breached. In the mean time, short term trading, for me. 

The blue circle looks like a potential break of medium term down trend to me. 

Broadly speaking.


----------



## explod

This from Jim Sincair's site I thought may be of interest:-



> Dear Friends:
> 
> Welcome back to the Bretton Woods Agreement: Currency Bands Modernized and Revitalized.
> 
> It is so transparent that you would have to be blind not to see it. Today, Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, returned to his strategy statement that inflation was a more compelling issue for the ECB than the level of economic activity.
> 
> The majority of the last three generations of currency traders make their market decisions based on anticipated interest rate differentials.  The Euro was muscled off the near $1.60 level by more than $10 billion in currency market intervention, along with Trichet's verbal intervention stating that the economic environment might take precedent over inflation. Today as he reverses himself by making inflation the primary concern, more intervention is taking place to make the Euro look weak in the face of a statement that should have the opposite impact.
> 
> Now you have the Euro "verbal currency band" reinstated at a low of $1.49 and a high of $1.60. Alarms have now been put in place in the Euro that will scream like a siren when violated.  The Euro trading above $1.60 will clearly show that Central Bank power has been overcome by market action.
> 
> The U.S. and ECB Central Banks will change the bands to $1.55 - $1.65 but that will fall quickly as my following comments outline:
> 
> Gold will recognize that the lower band is the floor price for the Euro at which time market reactions for gold will become less violent and higher highs will be achieved. A little less violent trading range for gold would certainly make life easier for everyone - especially those companies that produce, explore and develop mineral deposits.
> 
> I have informed you many times that there is going to be a revitalized and modernized reinstatement of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio. This upcoming monetary tool has been reviewed many times on www.JSminset.com. Go to search to review.
> 
> The Revitalized and Modernized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio will be tied to a reintroduction of M3. It will not be tied as in the pre-Bretton Woods Agreement. The treasury will have nothing whatsoever to do as the open market will do it for them.
> 
> Now I can state with total conviction that when the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio is reintroduced gold will trade $100 above and below this index gold price for many years to come. I anticipate this at gold $1,650.
> 
> Therefore, fear of a 1980 gold experience on the downside is no longer valid.  I have told you that those you identify as gold's enemies are indeed gold’s best friends. As always, those close to power are going to make more on gold that the disbelievers in the gold community ever will.
> 
> With the introduction of the revitalized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio and currency bands, gold will be supported by a peg and the Euro will not. When this unfolds in front of all the meatheads in the investment world, it will be seen that gold is a better investment than any currency.
> 
> Now you see the plan unfolding exactly as it has been outlined on www.jsmineset.com for more than seven years.
> 
> Respectfully,
> 
> Jim


----------



## cuttlefish

Nice inflation figures in the US tonight supporting the theories about the effects of money printing.   Hasn't helped the gold price which has gone down again as US markets open.  The AUD gold price being strong helps support the case that some of the Australian gold stocks are getting into solidly oversold territory.  I'm not a fan of all of them because I think cost is still going to be an issue for a lot of them, but if the AUD gold price can stave off a slump to lower levels then there are some that could be well worth picking up.

I'm still bullish on oil as well and if you believe oil prices are going to remain above the $100 mark for the foreseeable future then there is looking like good value amongst some of the newer oil producers as well.


The US has to inflate itself out of the housing slump and credit problems but try to avoid losing control of that inflation - a difficult juggling act - particularly in light of the fact that the Euro has its own problems too. Devaluing currencies = rising cost of physical goods imo hence the bullishness on oil as well - I don't buy into the demand destruction theories for oil either but that might be naive.

I bought some physical gold on Monday this week - just a small amount - something I've been meaning to do for a while anyway and thought while prices are a bit soft I'd pick some up (though the AUD price isn't really that soft).  I still see better leverage via gold producing stocks so will continue to focus on them.


----------



## Whiskers

I agree cuttlefish, that production costs are inhibiting the progress of many resource stocks, particularly the juniors. But I'm getting back into selective gold, copper and nickel stocks right now.

Just had a look at the oil and gold charts. They're both in small corrective legs, only difference is oil has just about done enough to continue it's downward spiral whereas gold has just about done enough to continue it's upward run.

Similarly, the USD index looks like it may have done it's little correction and is on the way up again also... all good for the Aus market, particularly our recource stocks.

PS: Just done the maths. it may have to touch 808.3 to finish the correction.


----------



## Whiskers

Well, The USD index shot up from 76.5 to 77, a new recent high, in the last hour or so... made it a bit tough for the POG, but it's holding up so far.


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> Well, The USD index shot up from 76.5 to 77, a new recent high, in the last hour or so... made it a bit tough for the POG, but it's holding up so far.



That brief rally looks done for the minute, and pressure building on $800 ish. Next stop $775 ish?

Been relentless.


----------



## Sean K

In fact, breaking 805 might send it there.


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> That brief rally looks done for the minute, and pressure building on $800 ish. Next stop $775 ish?
> 
> Been relentless.




And if that does not hold (I was given number just above that a few days ago so if I see US$ 775 I might feel rather ill)

Again I shall mention this just in passing
POG on Comex has just had 8 days down
1 day up
Now 1 day down
Record is 9 down in a row (on 1 occasion)


----------



## cuttlefish

Gee the night was looking good before I went to bed - DOW down, oil up, gold started up but corrected again ... now oil down, DOW up and gold down ... .    

So will gold hold this support level or not is the big question I guess.  If it doesn't and heads down significantly lower it will only add strength to the eventual run when the price recovers because of the reduction in supply that will result from lower prices.  But above $US 800, the current AUD gold price will still have projects moving forward here.   

The AUD/USD certainly throws an added complexity to the mix - maybe the 'strong' USD (I still don't buy it) will counter the falling gold price.  And when USD reality sets in the flight will be from there to gold anyway (imo) so maybe AUD gold will remain strong either way.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> Gee the night was looking good before I went to bed - DOW down, oil up, gold started up but corrected again ... now oil down, DOW up and gold down ... .
> 
> .




Yep. someone on Wall Street at the open said that, "the POO would drop next year, so everyone said to themselves, "were all saved"

The campaign to tie gold in with oil has stuck firm.  A campaign to take attention away from the valueless fiat currencies as was being reflected in a rising gold price can not be tolerated by the regime at this time.

I have no faith that gold will do much till the US Presidential election.  However the sentimental power of wall street is something to behold and should always taken into consideration.


----------



## explod

Since my last post above notice gold this morning down a further $10.

From European trade last night gold has effectively fallen $US42 in the last 14hours.   This is a typical downramp on my past observations, leading to the weekend.  It can now be expected to end much lower at the US close tonight so that it has the weekend exposure for maximum psychological effect.   The PPP at its best and most deperate.

Too much to record here, but the Georgia situation is one in which the US is losing a very big tactical situation.  This may not make sense to some but this fact is very much tied to a worldwide loss of confidence in the US across the board and the flee out of US dollars that will soon follow will see a return to gold value that will be huge.   But the volitility from the supression that can  still be applied will be hard for some to bear.

Just hang on and ride the storm.  The bull is bucking but on the weekly still intact and looking oversold on the indicators.

We live in interesting times


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Yep. someone on Wall Street at the open said that, "the POO would drop next year, so everyone said to themselves, "were all saved"
> 
> The campaign to tie gold in with oil has stuck firm.  A campaign to take attention away from the valueless fiat currencies as was being reflected in a rising gold price can not be tolerated by the regime at this time.
> 
> I have no faith that gold will do much till the US Presidential election.  However the sentimental power of wall street is something to behold and should always taken into consideration.



explod, are you saying the market is always right, or wrong?

You have been saying for some time the the market has been wrong in regard to gold haven't you?

Confused...


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> explod, are you saying the market is always right, or wrong?
> 
> You have been saying for some time the the market has been wrong in regard to gold haven't you?
> 
> Confused...




Good question.  In the end the market is allways right.  You will be aware that I am mostly out of the market and have been for some time.   Got back into LGL the other day, but they will hold up reasonably at these levels.   But my basic rules are to follow the trend.

The market is however moved first of all by sentiment.  That last word is the most important.   For considerable periods sentiment can be moved by the words of ecomomists and the media.   It is well known that some make a living off this side of trading.  Professors of Sociology out of Harvard are part of the PPP, dont' worry about that.

However in the longer term (Buffet's lifetime success is the test) fundamentals will win the day.    Fiat money is in trouble because of massive developed world debt.

Back to your question Kennas, in short, the market is often led the wrong way.    A report we posted only in the last week or so here indicated that the system, banks etc will be loading up on gold when the mugs have sold.   What we have is a normal shake out.   Short term traders may need to follow it, medium longer term I will ride it out.

Interesting times


----------



## Kauri

Never underestimate the affect of the Japanese retail investor facing margin calls... watch the XAUJPY... maybe...  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Back to your question Kennas, in short, the market is often led the wrong way. A report we posted only in the last week or so here indicated that the system, banks etc will be loading up on gold when the mugs have sold. What we have is* a normal shake out*. Short term traders may need to follow it, medium longer term I will ride it out.
> 
> Interesting times




  More like a severe case of the DT's methinks... after the party comes the hangover..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## bean

Silver currently falling of a cliff. 
POG to follow?

A bear trap for those that bought gold stocks on yesterdays opening most stocks gaped up at the open 5%
today a lot opened 5% down

If a  big night down in POG and US gold Index's tonight.
Blood on the streets in Aussie gold stocks early next week?

Panic selling / Fear spreads 
A capitulation of Gold stocks


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> Never underestimate the affect of the Japanese retail investor facing margin calls... watch the XAUJPY... maybe...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Of course, the PPP are only the precipitators



> More like a severe case of the DT's methinks... after the party comes the hangover..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




And my idea is to stay firm, a flat bottle of beer the day after sounds good but more often makes it worse.

However I am never one to make predictions but do think this action may (emphasise the word MAY) bring in buyers and turn this move into a strong reverse hammer on the daily.


----------



## BentRod

Resistance at $771 getting probed.


----------



## explod

BentRod said:


> Resistance at $771 getting probed.




You probably mean suport and if it breaks down the next major support is around $US680.   Near to the area Bean called some 8 or 9 months ago.

However it has headed back to 784 and silver is showing similar signs.  US dollar strong at over 77 on the Index so anyones guess at this stage.


----------



## eddyeagle

Interesting article on gold here from sharecafe:

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=9805


----------



## BentRod

> You probably mean suport




Nope, I consider that resistance, I'm short.:


----------



## mfp

I got into SGX Wednesday and got out yesterday, when gold was $832, for a neat $1K profit...feeling pretty smug right now...gold $783 as I write. Also bought into banks near yesterday's lows after selling near Tuesday's highs. So far so good..but I have probably just jinxed myself.


----------



## Temjin

I never thought would see silver at below USD $13 / oz again.   Just look at the US Dollar chart, extreme overbought but the momentum is stagnating (not increasing and not declining). Here comes a resistance level at near 78, highly likely it will bounce back down at that point to kill its overbought condition. Of course, unless everyone suddenly start to think US Dollar is one of the best asset to keep because it is producing a negative yield.   Another case of technical trend buying regardless of the fundamentals.


----------



## Kauri

For what it is worth, I think it was ML that came out today with a $745 3month target for gold, also an assertion that the $US has bottomed, and incidentally that the cable is headed for 1.79... unless of course I herd wrong, in which case,...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> Nope, I consider that resistance, I'm short.:




I hope you've cashed in your short BentRod. 



Whiskers said:


> My most favoured position at the moment is that this is the end of a significant correction and it'll be generally up from here for quite awhile... mind you though, some of the minor wave corrections along the way may be pretty savage.
> 
> The *caveat*, (due to my relative inexperience) my less likely possibility, is that this is not the end of significant wave C, but a lower degree wave 1 of 3, in which case it would *kick up for a few days or so and revisit the 800 level support and momentarily break it to finish wave C*, as bean suggests, before pushing upwards to new highs.




Well, didn't go exactly to plan, but after having a good look at how it's unfolded now... 

:band

I am gonna enphatically declare the bottom (end of wave *2*) is put in.


----------



## BentRod

> I hope you've cashed in your short BentRod




Nope still short.

Stop at breakeven- 803.15


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> That brief rally looks done for the minute, and pressure building on $800 ish. Next stop $775 ish?
> 
> Been relentless.






kennas said:


> In fact, breaking 805 might send it there.



Unfortunately, I missed some of that as I had to go out for some lomo picadas and nuttie martinis. 

Interesting recovery, but failing just as quickly. 

Looks like there'll be plenty of resistance around $800 now. 


Maybe buy at the end of this week Bean? Or, next week maybe?


----------



## Sean K

Anyone think season gold movements might kick in this year?

Could be triggered by USD falling back and oil recovery? NZ attacking Australia?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Spooked by shadows now. 

Whipsaw markets & flight to qaulity.

$50 daily ranges. Currency manipulation. Oversold. All move to the other side of the Titanic at once. Imbalances. Fear. Value. Store of 'wealth'. What is wealth? What is money? Who decides _what_ it is and _when_ to make it? Panic. Uncertainty. 

Trust in your central bank - they will look after you?


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> Spooked by shadows now.
> 
> Whipsaw markets & flight to qaulity.
> 
> $50 daily ranges. Currency manipulation. Oversold. All move to the other side of the Titanic at once. Imbalances. Fear. Value. Store of 'wealth'. What is wealth? What is money? Who decides _what_ it is and _when_ to make it? Panic. Uncertainty.
> 
> Trust in your central bank - they will look after you?



I should have gone more cash some time ago, but disregarded my own advice. I think I was worried ANZ might go bust! eeeeek! 

Interesting times that's for sure.

Not good for the heart though. 

A story for the young whipper snappers coming through in 20 years...


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Unfortunately, I missed some of that as I had to go out for some lomo picadas and nuttie martinis.
> 
> Interesting recovery, but failing just as quickly.
> 
> Looks like there'll be plenty of resistance around $800 now.
> 
> 
> Maybe buy at the end of this week Bean? Or, next week maybe?




Waiting patiently
Averaged in on MMN on the way down my only holding position.
And that's put me 2nd on the stock tipping!!!! (expect to drop down ladder next week but might be back up there by the end of the month)

Bought and sold thursday
I have plenty of powder to buy.
And may start nibbling when the time is right or bargains start to appear

Interesting to note that when the DOW rises gold indexes in the US seem to have a down day and vise versa been happening more frequently the past month.

Now the US markets may be near the top and next leg down.
So sometime next week if they start to fall will the golds if they are still falling  continue to fall or break away?

Are we near, to that time when Gold stocks and general markets break from each other?


----------



## cuttlefish

cuttlefish said:


> Definitely an interesting technical zone for gold and at the moment not looking too promising having broken down through the $840 level and now testing the top of the $780-$820 band of support.  The sharpness of the moves down certainly makes it look weak on the charts.





Definitely looking shaky testing the bottom of that support band now - though I haven't quite given up on it yet.  

If it does push down from here then I'd be starting to agree with the WP about downside targets - could head down into the low 700's possible support around the $680 mark.   If it does I think it will be fairly short lived - possibly less than a month - with a fairly sharp bounce back up into the high 700's/low 800's but will require consolidation then before tackling the higher marks again.   I'd probably be calling the gold bull to start mid next year rather than now if thats the case.   I'm still clinging to the hope that the current 780/820 band will hold and form a base though.

If it does a move down into the 680's it will have a psychological effect of breaking the back of a lot of the current gold bullishness that is out there - taking a bit more of the spec money out of the market for now, and put quite a few projects on indefinite hold,  and also cause a few existing production operations to shut down - all having a positive effect of reducing supply and strengthening any subsequent run.  

explod I think your call of waiting till post the US elections before we see any real action on the USD/gold front is looking like a good one.


----------



## cuttlefish

eddyeagle said:


> Interesting article on gold here from sharecafe:
> 
> http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=9805





cheers eddy a good read - sums up the situation well imo. So the flight out of the USD into the Euro and other currencies has just been going from the frying pan into the fire - and now they're all headed back into the frying pan.  So when the USD heads south again the money has more chance of flowing directly into gold this time rather than other currencies.


----------



## GreatPig

An update on the weekly ASX GOLD chart. It's  now looking like a bearish triangle, with a downside target somewhere in the low A$70s.

Mind you, the last time it looked like a bearish triangle (Mar 06 - Jul 07), prices actually broke upwards to a new all-time high . If that pattern repeats, with the old high becoming the new 50% level, then the upside target is around A$135.

So it's obvious it's either going to go up or down, unless it happens to go sideways :. Either way, watch for the triangle breakout.

GP


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cuttlefish said:


> cheers eddy a good read - sums up the situation well imo. So the flight out of the USD into the Euro and other currencies has just been going from the frying pan into the fire - and now they're all headed back into the frying pan. So when the USD heads south again the money has more chance of flowing directly into gold this time rather than other currencies.




Yes, what once was a 3 horse race suddenly is back to the old 2 horse race with a late scratching after the ring-in pulled up lame and it's owners started arguing which way around the race track it should go. 

Hang on, the stewards have also been asking questions about the other horse too, something about being doped up to the eyeballs with steroids (credit) & excess baggage (debt)


----------



## MRC & Co

Quite a bit of bearish sentiment coming into this thread.

Anyone looking for the fade?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

MRC & Co said:


> Quite a bit of bearish sentiment coming into this thread.
> 
> Anyone looking for the fade?




A capitulation will do - then back to trend?


----------



## kbxk508

cuttlefish said:


> If it does a move down into the 680's it will have a psychological effect of breaking the back of a lot of the current gold bullishness that is out there - taking a bit more of the spec money out of the market for now, and put quite a few projects on indefinite hold,  and also cause a few existing production operations to shut down - all having a positive effect of reducing supply and strengthening any subsequent run.




cuttlefish, you make a good point - these prices cannot be sustained without it impacting on the supply side, not to mention that political tensions are rising as well. 

I thought low 800's was it, but shorts keep pushing it to the brink. MACD is starting to resemble MACD for a lot of the gold stocks. Even if drops to the low 700's, 600's I don't see it staying down there too long.         

kbxk508


----------



## Uncle Festivus

There are some interesting dynamics in play now - the falling $AU is keeping the AU price above $900. An interesting scenario would involve the $US gold price increasing (counter rally to DX?) while the $AU struggles to remake 98c due to lowering of interest rates, resulting in a 'slingshot' leverage for gold in $AU terms?

Getting closer - is it safe yet?


----------



## explod

Gold is just an item.   We trade many items.     BHP, buy sell a house, exchange goods, trade our labor with employer.   We try to find the best position for monetary gain.    The dynamnics or money making potential of these items change.  If we want maximum we have to change.   Buying a house for the majority has been great value since 1965.  Some bumps but consistent.   That cycle seems to be in some doubt though.   Gold was great from 1970 to 1980, then to 2000 bad.   Stock markets then generally very good, now looking not so good.

I think gold is a generally good item at the moment.   

It hit a peak of $US730 in April 06 and then plumeted to 545 six weeks later in May 06.  That was a short and savage drop of 30% 

It hit another peak in March of 08 at $US1029 and since has fallen to $US785, a 25% retrace in 21 weeks.  Uh, oh,what do you know, this is not as bad as the other shakeout.

Well it is good to stand back and see the bigger picture.

From 2002 gold has gone from $US260 and ounce to 785.   Against most other items that is not bad.  Of course many of us have stepped out due to the drop, some have begun to get back in but generally the gold bugs understand the item so is well worth further speculation as we sit at this time.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

What the! Not sure what to make of this new ann posted on Kitco today - supply shortages??? Follows on from Indian supply shortage story recently??? Un-natural forces supressing the natural supply-demand equation?


*IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: *Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.


----------



## Firdy

*Interesting Auction of Gold Ingots*

If anyone wants to have a go at buying some bullion, GBM (Greater Bendigo) put 5 ingots up "to mark the recommencement of production at their historic Maxwells Mine".

Go to trademe.co.nz, search for "gold ingots".  

The ingots are 2oz 99.99%, no reserve, currently bidding between $NZ 500 and $NZ 2000.

It's not for me (all my dough is sunk into junior gold miners - including GBM before the share price collapse (which I hope is temporary), but some of you still wealthy buggers might be interested.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> A capitulation will do - then back to trend?




We've just had it Uncle. 

It's pretty well back to the longer term (monthly closing price) trend now.

While the strengthing of the USD and falling oil is tending to pressure gold down, dwindling supply I expect will be enough to keep gold tracking sideways to up in the short term until the (lack of) supply issue really starts to bite, then it's off to new record highs again regardless of the USD or oil.


----------



## solomon

Okay, I'm a novice here, so please be kind, that said I have come round to see the value of gold in these uncertain times, I own gold companies and am considering buying physical gold.

I see a weaker USD as even more dramatic events unfold for the US and UK economically and financially.

However, I want to propose a scenario that could see gold range bound for years between say $700 USD and $1000 USD (I've picked the top and what I see as TA longer term support).

I noticed somewhere that the US supposedly has 8,000 odd tons of the stuff lying around and at the same time is throwing money at numerous black holes - bailing out investment banks, consumers, home owners, possibly Freddie and Fannie and they have a war or two that is costing squillions. At the same time they have got an inflation problem and the powers that be are showing that they will do anything to maintain the economic and financial status quo.

So what is to stop the US selling gold into every rise and easing off on every fall so as to fund all of the spending. 8,000 tons is a lot of USD, and it would not be inflationary because they aren't printing money, as they are transferring gold for paper money that is already in circulation. It would be the most profound transfer of wealth and leave the US government with bare cupboards, but it would maintain the economic/financial status quo and in a way that would be anti inflationary.

Why won't they do this?


----------



## steven1234

Solomon, what you say makes sense and may go someway to explaining what is happening atm.  If the US is selling part of its holding, this will impact on pruducers and aome will go under as their costs will exceed the price they will obtain for gold.     

Does anyone know when and how the US discloses to the public and changes in its gold holdings.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

steven1234 said:


> Solomon, what you say makes sense and may go someway to explaining what is happening atm. If the US is selling part of its holding, this will impact on pruducers and aome will go under as their costs will exceed the price they will obtain for gold.
> 
> Does anyone know when and how the US discloses to the public and changes in its gold holdings.




In short, they don't. The exact gold holdings are not made public, so who knows if the 8k tons is still there. Look up GATA for the whole evil conspiracy theories. GATA claim that the US does not have anywhere near what is reported as they (the government/Fed) have been selling and or leasing gold for years (remember Barrick), in order to suppress the price. 

But even just the presumption that the global central banks have all this gold in storage just ready to dump on to the market is enough to sow doubts, as per above. Can you imaging what would happen if the amount of gold held by governments was finally made public, and the cupboard was bare, or grossly overestimated?

There will never be trasparency in gold holdings while ever the fiat money & fractional reserve baking systems are in place because it is a direct currency competitor.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Whiskers said:


> We've just had it Uncle.
> 
> It's pretty well back to the longer term (monthly closing price) trend now.
> 
> While the strengthing of the USD and falling oil is tending to pressure gold down, dwindling supply I expect will be enough to keep gold tracking sideways to up in the short term until the (lack of) supply issue really starts to bite, then it's off to new record highs again regardless of the USD or oil.




Um, I actually agree with yo there . But I would go even further and say that gold could even go to $600 and still be in the longer term uptrend?


----------



## noirua

In the past when gold was in short supply people purchased paper gold. The weight of the paper on the market brought it down last time.


----------



## kbxk508

Nothing new, but worth reinforcing



> Silver & gold remain in a powerful bull market with another seven or more years to run. The bull market is handing you a gift: buy. ...
> 
> Dollar rally may carry to 82, but will peter out in 3 months at most, probably sooner. Stocks [DOW] may reach 12,500, but will come down hard thereafter. _Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger_




http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/

kbxk508


----------



## solomon

I agree that we can't ever know how much gold the US has, but in the report at http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/current.html the figure is given as 258,641,851.485 troy ounces, which is about 8000 tons at a guess, so that at least would set the upper limit.


----------



## cuttlefish

solomon said:


> I agree that we can't ever know how much gold the US has, but in the report at http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/current.html the figure is given as 258,641,851.485 troy ounces, which is about 8000 tons at a guess, so that at least would set the upper limit.




Solomon - my take on this is thats not a lot of gold and not a lot of money.

258 million ounces = approx $250 billion dollars  (a bit less) at current prices - that would cover *some* of the cost of the credit crisis so far and wouldn't come close to matching the amount of USD based investments held by foreign central banks and private investors.   If people decide that the USD is toilet paper then they will be happy to take that gold off the US govt's hands and it will go in a flash.    Annual world gold production is about 79 million ounces so thats only three years annual production.  

If you look in USD terms at how much fiat currency is in circulation in the world in total (remember the USD is the world reserve currency and thus its value underpins all other currencies as well) then $250 billion is a very small amount of money.

This is the direct consequence of abandoning the gold standard -the USD has been able to print far far more money than is backed by their gold.

This is all just my humble opinion - I'm not an economist and don't have any raw figures in front of me.


----------



## cuttlefish

Uncle Festivus said:


> Um, I actually agree with yo there . But I would go even further and say that gold could even go to $600 and still be in the longer term uptrend?




Yeah I think it could - I've got a band of long term support in the $550-$620 sort of range - but it'd probably take a while to recover from that sort of down move.  




			
				Whiskers said:
			
		

> We've just had it Uncle.
> 
> It's pretty well back to the longer term (monthly closing price) trend now.




I agree - and am still hoping this will hold, but the momentum and speed with which its come down to this support level makes me think it might overcorrect past the support line - possibly significantly - but hopefully short lived with a return back into this support/trend band fairly quickly.

In some ways a brief capitulation down to lower levels (low 700's even high 600') would help to close off this corrective phase in the longer term bull run and set the stage for building into the next leg upwards.


----------



## Sean K

Crikey, what's POG up to?

$20 move in a few minutes, smashing up though $800/05 resistance.

Any ideas? 

Just a short blip in the downtrend?


----------



## wayneL

Currency related?

Oil, euro, pound, etc doing likewise.


----------



## BentRod

Yep, Euro doing the same .

Might be worth a quick Long.


----------



## Sean K

BentRod said:


> Yep, Euro doing the same .
> 
> Might be worth a quick Long.



I wasn't watching when it broke up, so missed it. But, sure about any sustainable move, even though it looks to have broken a couple of short term resistance lines. Could just as easy flop back over this arvo. Wait and see for me on if that resistance becomes support. 

General news in the US today is that the world's imploading. Prices of household staples like rice and potatoes have doubled in Ecuador in the past 3 months. I'm going out to check out bomb shelters this afternoon. Has that got anything to do with gold? Sorry...


----------



## BentRod

Yes we better get back onto Gold Mate...lol

But before we do, 1.48 on Euro must be breached before looking for longs on Oil,Gold,AUD etc(in my view).

Hovering there now.


----------



## explod

Jim Sinclair's web page has two very interesting charts for gold going back to 1970.

There was a retracement 1974 to 76 of 43% prior to the run up to the $700 close in 1980.   Notice however how steep the climb in price was between 1970 and 73.   If we are not there yet, some of the so called outlandish calls by some pundits could yet have merit.

I cant' paste this over so go to www.jsminset.com


----------



## Kauri

Not one of my most convincing wave setups for Gold... I have been trading the trend in preference to the waves... but maybe the inflation expectations of the unexpected PPI data which lifted gold, oil and base metals higher may give a decent W4?? although considering the powerfull downdraft of the past 4-5 weeks a shallow 4 wouldn't be a big shock... then again, 
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Sean K

Which way is this little duck going to break?


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Not one of my most convincing wave setups for Gold... I have been trading the trend in preference to the waves... but maybe the inflation expectations of the *unexpected PPI data *which lifted gold, oil and base metals higher may give a decent W4?? although considering the powerfull downdraft of the past 4-5 weeks a shallow 4 wouldn't be a big shock... then again,
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Unexpected!... not for this little black duck, but apparently for some 'economists'. 

Kauri, I presume you were referring to the economists, not yourself. 



kennas said:


> Which way is this little duck going to break?




I'm with Kauri, a consolidating, probably fairly wide wave four... but on the daily, going up for me.

I think oil has to rise another couple of dollars to complete it's correction before falling again, and the USDX is probably also just starting a consolidation wave four. Unlikely that oil will move down rapidly again at the same time as the USD kicks higher.

This cycle *2* correction is over. Cycle *3* is preparing for take-off.


----------



## bankit

_Finding a bottom in Spot Gold has not been easy with this relentless sell off but we might be there or very close. Compared to the same time last year Spot Gold is 20% higher ($778/650) and our Gold Index (XGD) is 10% lower (4003/4430) – this is a huge disparity and shows us how oversold our Gold stocks are._

*POINTS OF NOTE*





_Historically the price of Gold usually starts moving up from now into Christmas. I have read that there are some shortages in some areas of manufacturing and this is another positive._

_
[*]We have a possible 1 year low to low cycle (Gann stuff) on both Gold and our Index._


_
[*]Last Thursday and Friday there was no evidence of overseas cross trades in our stocks that have been occurring for sometime. If that is the case and they have stopped then it is another plus that a bottom may be in for our stocks. This observation is critical for a turn around in our stocks._


_
[*]In our Index there is a cluster of 4 resistances in the 4003/3900 area. _


_
[*]The target area for the triple top is also complete at that same range._


_
[*]The USD could well be at strong resistance in the 77 to 78 ¢ area and this could assist Golds move up. The USD has come a long way in a short period of time. Even if it is manipulated or not it needs to have a breather at these levels._

_Because of the above points I feel that it is more likely that our stocks could turn around and lead Gold back up, rather than Gold moving down to meet our Index. This thought however is against the current proof that for the last 2 years Gold has lead our stocks (historically it has been the reverse)– timing I feel may be the difference this time around. _

_We need to be aware that if all Gold stocks start moving up in unison then we could have a bottom in place. Having said that we need to see evidence that it is occurring before we dive into the stocks unless your risk profile allows for it._

_Cheers,_
_bankit._


----------



## CamKawa

Some commentators on Bloomberg aren't that confident about the POG.

Gold Bulls `Running for Cover' Signal Price Drop: Chart of Day


----------



## explod

CamKawa said:


> Some commentators on Bloomberg aren't that confident about the POG.
> 
> Gold Bulls `Running for Cover' Signal Price Drop: Chart of Day




Well if Bloomberg are pushing that then it is now time to get back in.   All that is left is the jawboning and even that appears to be falling apart.   

IMVHO of course.


----------



## CamKawa

explod said:


> Well if Bloomberg are pushing that then it is now time to get back in.



Could well be.


----------



## Sean K

Could that have been a bottom?

Broken through 4 resistance lines on my chart, and made 2 higher lows and highs, so far. If $830 ish is tested and bounces up, then more ammunition.

USD down, Oil up, world decides Georgia is about US v Ruskies, ....what else?

I'm still bearish for some reason.


----------



## Paladin

kennas said:


> Could that have been a bottom?
> 
> Broken through 4 resistance lines on my chart, and made 2 higher lows and highs, so far. If $830 ish is tested and bounces up, then more ammunition.
> 
> USD down, Oil up, world decides Georgia is about US v Ruskies, ....what else?
> 
> I'm still bearish for some reason.




Hey Kennas.

I think $840 may well hold a few more assaults. I won't be too surprised either way, given how volatile things are recently.

Personally, I don't think that Georgia is much of a factor here at the moment. If it escalates, maybe. I just think it's being eclipsed by all the other economic clouds on the horizon. 

I personally am reading all I can and don't seem to think anyone has clear, demonstrable reasons for the recent bump up.

USD down would be my guess at the major factor that will be at play in the POG over the next months. There's a lot of rumbling about physical scarcities at the moment, but I think that's being overhyped. Much more germane is how shaky the USD is looking. Details that are emerging about, for example, the fannie freddy situation are genuinely alarming. 

And here's one very good reason why I think the USD will soften and the POG rise: the fact that the US Exchange Stabilization Fund has recently been selling Euros like mad and buying dollars - a clear case of trying to keep the greenback high (IMO).

Take a peek at: http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24833658

I can't quite reconcile the exact figures quoted there myself, but the raw data is available at:

http://www.treas.gov/press/international-reserve-position.html

(The link in the article quoted is broken)

If you look at the reserve position for 15/08, you'll notice that the fed held 9,567,000,000 Euro securities. Look back at the 6th of June and you'll see that they held 16,192,000,000. That's a difference of 6.6 billion dollars.

Something seems to be afoot.

In short, I'm not reading much that gives me confidence in the US economy. That gives me confidence in the POG.


----------



## cuttlefish

Wow cnn likes their headlines ... *"Oil: Biggest Drop in 17 years"*  ... err in dollar amount not percentage terms ... and only about a buck more than the previous 'biggest drop in 17 years' that occurred about a month ago ... and its still nearly 50% higher than this time last year.


I also like the way that the Dow rises 170 points on the great news that the US economy is a complete basket case and this will spread to the rest of the world and therefore its good to buy stocks because oil prices have fallen to such 'low' levels and there is no inflation because there will be no consumer demand because everybody will be broke which is always great for the stockmarket ... ?!?

Though vs holding the USD itself US stocks might be a better bet.

Is the USD rising because the US economy is a basket case or because no inflation means they won't raise interest rates meaning the yield will be lower ?- I'm not sure which one astute investors prefer - low yields or basket cases.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> Wow cnn likes their headlines ... *"Oil: Biggest Drop in 17 years"*  ... err in dollar amount not percentage terms ... and only about a buck more than the previous 'biggest drop in 17 years' that occurred about a month ago ... and its still nearly 50% higher than this time last year.
> 
> 
> .




Jawboning and more jawboning.   The great thing is that I no longer need to partake on ASF as we are all now in tune.

The implosion has begun and the world will be very differrrent when the 1000 trillion of derivative/option (you name and quantify it) becomes nothing in the next few months.


----------



## explod

bankit said:


> _Finding a bottom in Spot Gold has not been easy with this relentless sell off but we might be there or very close. Compared to the same time last year Spot Gold is 20% higher ($778/650) and our Gold Index (XGD) is 10% lower (4003/4430) – this is a huge disparity and shows us how oversold our Gold stocks are._
> 
> 
> _We need to be aware that if all Gold stocks start moving up in unison then we could have a bottom in place. Having said that we need to see evidence that it is occurring before we dive into the stocks unless your risk profile allows for it._
> 
> _Cheers,_
> _bankit._




I like your indepth take, a very good post; the directions of which should be heeded IMHO

I think now that Japan and China are becoming concerned about holding US dollars (in spite of the trade issues) means a whole new ball game.

The lift in gold sentiment cannot be too far away.


----------



## Temjin

Interesting things happened in the COT report recently.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php



> [FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.
> 
> [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of *7,787 contracts *(778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of *86,398 contracts* (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This was put on as one massive position just before the market collapsed in price.



[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]Eleven fold increase in SHORT POSITION. I mean...WOW...I don't have the expertise to analysis the COT report, but I really wondered if it is true. Have those US Banks ever make such a significant change in their short contract holdings? I mean if they have done so before and in such a magnitude, perhaps it should be considered normal.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]Anyway, something to ponder. 
[/FONT]


----------



## bankit

_Hi Temjin,_

_Thanks for that excellent report._

_http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php_

_That ties in with what I suspected and posted on 20th August in this thread._

_*Quote: *Last Thursday and Friday there was no evidence of overseas cross trades in our stocks that have been occurring for sometime. If that is the case and they have stopped then it is another plus that a bottom may be in for our stocks. This observation is critical for a turn around in our stocks._

_I had been watching the course of sales on a number of our Gold stocks and had noted there were consistent overseas cross trades that were designated XTSXOS. These trades are designated as “Special Sale Portfolio” by the ASX, in other words a big overseas (OS) seller._

_These sales were relentlessly consistent all the time that Gold was being sold down and mysteriously stopped when Gold stopped selling off which was around 14/15th August and they have not returned to date._


_This is my assumption and is open for debate._

_Who ever was selling down gold was selling down gold stocks as well (world wide). Or alternatively others at the big end of town got a whiff of what was happening in gold and shorted the gold stocks. Whichever way, it was an absolute no risk trade._

_The other thought that comes to mind is that it is well known that Gold rises between now and Christmas and the powers to be don’t want Gold to move too high – so a sell off prior to a seasonal move up would help keep the gold price within their “comfort zone” come Christmas. In other words no new highs in Gold at Christmas._

_Have another read of my 20th August post and it might now make a bit more sense._


----------



## Trembling Hand

Temjin said:


> [FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]Eleven fold increase in SHORT POSITION. I mean...WOW...I don't have the expertise to analysis the COT report, but I really wondered if it is true. Have those US Banks ever make such a significant change in their short contract holdings? I mean if they have done so before and in such a magnitude, perhaps it should be considered normal.[/FONT]
> 
> 
> [FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]Anyway, something to ponder. [/FONT]




LOL the conspiracy theory Bugs are always a good source of amusement if not fact!

The non-Commercials are still net long to the tune of at least 3 to 1.


----------



## bankit

*AMATEUR HOUR IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS *


_The gold ETF (GLD) and the silver ETF (SLV) were brought into existence and have as custodians JP Morgan and Barclay’s, sworn enemies of gold and silver. What more do you need to know?_

_Stop making a fool of yourself if you are taking paper for payment of silver and gold and if you simply can not hold physical, buy high quality gold and silver shares and stick with them._ 



Read what you want into the report but there is a lot of truth in it:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/greene082108.html


----------



## amory

This is a very fine discussion of the POG & I should like to most humbly contribute my first post.  for some time now I have been involved in a leading gold-stock known as Lollilegs - ASX.LGL, second largest producer, unhedged etc - & if I may be allowed to make a price prediction, I would say $1.80 in the very foreseeable.  this is based mainly on my expectation for the price of gold, where the optimists will have a lot yet to learn.

thank you

amory hill


----------



## Sean K

amory said:


> This is a very fine discussion of the POG & I should like to most humbly contribute my first post.  for some time now I have been involved in a leading gold-stock known as Lollilegs - ASX.LGL, second largest producer, unhedged etc - & if I may be allowed to make a price prediction, I would say $1.80 in the very foreseeable.  this is based mainly on my expectation for the price of gold, where the optimists will have a lot yet to learn.
> 
> thank you
> 
> amory hill



Hi amory, were you around Share Cafe a couple of years ago? Good to see you here. 

In regard to $1.80, that's a nice guess. 

But doesn't seem to correlate to any FA or TA that I can imagine. 

Is that from a crystal ball, or tea leaves?

Ah, you also might want to make sure discussion of stocks go in the relevant stock thread. LGL has one, just play around with the search function.

Cheers!
kennas


----------



## Real1ty

kennas said:


> Hi amory, were you around Share Cafe a couple of years ago? Good to see you here.




He is also on shares.com.au under gr....basher and is a Gold basher.

He has turned the gold thread there into a load of Jim Sinclair and LGL bashing. 

Hopefully he isn't allowed to turn the Gold threads here into the Sinclair and LGL bashing threads he has done elsewhere.

Not that i have any love for either of them but it gets ridiculous when every post is the same thing.

EDIT: I see the post below me he has subtly started already.


----------



## amory

Hi Kennas of Ecuador.  yes I have been on any forum you care to name & argued the price of gold ad nauseam.  tired of being right every time - the main target of my assertions having been a famous gold-guru whose prediction of 1650 for the POG I managed to undercut, correctly as it turned out, by half - I have now taken my crystal ball over here.

the basis of my reasoning:  if you want gold to go up, you've got to first get the USDollar down.  this is where there are divergent opinions:  there are those who see nothing but doom & gloom for the US & world economies, and then there are those like myself who are convinced that the Fed knows what they're doing.

in the short term, the POG looks mighty sick to me.  but for all your sakes, hope I'm wrong, just for once.

and a word to Reality who I wish I knew which one are you of my numerous critics on the other forum?  it's not a question of "bashing" a stock or a commodity, it's all about making predictions which are right or wrong.  for the benefit of this thread:  where gold is concerned, my ones have a habit of turning out to be right.


----------



## explod

amory said:


> Hi Kennas of Ecuador.  yes I have been on any forum you care to name & argued the price of gold ad nauseam.  tired of being right every time - the main target of my assertions having been a famous gold-guru whose prediction of 1650 for the POG I managed to undercut, correctly as it turned out, by half - I have now taken my crystal ball over here.
> 
> the basis of my reasoning:  if you want gold to go up, you've got to first get the USDollar down.  this is where there are divergent opinions:  there are those who see nothing but doom & gloom for the US & world economies, and then there are those like myself who are convinced that the Fed knows what they're doing.
> 
> in the short term, the POG looks mighty sick to me.  but for all your sakes, hope I'm wrong, just for once.
> 
> and a word to Reality who I wish I knew which one are you of my numerous critics on the other forum?  it's not a question of "bashing" a stock or a commodity, it's all about making predictions which are right or wrong.  for the benefit of this thread:  where gold is concerned, my ones have a habit of turning out to be right.




Oh how good thou art, salutaions.   I have a habit of not making predictions but discussing what is actually happening for the most part on fundamentals.  

I am not one to poke my chest out either but the general thrust of what has been occurring has been correctly anticipated by discussions with my many good friends on this thread.    I am a trend follower also and gold has gone up every year since 2002.   That has been good for me.  The US dollar has gone down every year since that time and because of the huge debt they have in the US my fundamental view is that it will continue.

But I do bow and take my hat off to what you think you have achieved.

"Oh how hard it is to be humble when your'e perfect in aveerrry way..."


----------



## amory

Good morning Explod.

<< I am a trend follower also and gold has gone up every year since 2002. That has been good for me. >>

that is true, but other commodities - most other commodities - have done much better.  look at Oil, it is now ahead of gold out of all proportion.  by comparison, Gold should be well over $1000.

best regards


----------



## explod

amory said:


> Good morning Explod.
> 
> << I am a trend follower also and gold has gone up every year since 2002. That has been good for me. >>
> 
> that is true, but other commodities - most other commodities - have done much better.  look at Oil, it is now ahead of gold out of all proportion.  by comparison, Gold should be well over $1000.
> 
> best regards




thought the topic was gold.   I purchased OSH years back when it was a dollar.  So what, no rocket science, just common sense.

US dollar is going the same way as weimer Germany 1920's where in the end it took "a wheel barrow load to buy a meat pie"


----------



## explod

amory said:


> Good morning Explod.
> 
> 
> that is true, but other commodities - most other commodities - have done much better.  look at Oil, it is now ahead of gold out of all proportion.  by comparison, Gold should be well over $1000.
> 
> best regards




Yes but a look at the weekly charts back to 2004 does not see a great difference.   And if not for the Plunge Protection Team Efforts (Bloomberg/the Fed and the shorts and onsale gold contracts that cannot in fact be delivered) gold would be well over that number.   On the unravelling that is now coming to the fore, and the litigation and rule changes that will come through in the next 12 months, we will see.

and best regards to you also


----------



## amory

<< US dollar is going the same way as weimer Germany 1920's where in the end it took "a wheel barrow load to buy a meat pie" >>

this then is the ultimate question:  will the Fed & the rest of the world - dependent as they are on a healthy US - allow that to happen?  I don't believe they will, nor do I recall the meatpie forming part of the german diet in the 1920's.

envisaging a Zimbabwe-type situation, that's drawing a very long bow indeed!  but we do share some common ground:  we both see a close relationship between the fate of the dollar & that of gold.


----------



## explod

amory said:


> << US dollar is going the same way as weimer Germany 1920's where in the end it took "a wheel barrow load to buy a meat pie" >>
> 
> this then is the ultimate question:  will the Fed & the rest of the world - dependent as they are on a healthy US - allow that to happen?  I don't believe they will, nor do I recall the meatpie forming part of the german diet in the 1920's.
> 
> envisaging a Zimbabwe-type situation, that's drawing a very long bow indeed!  but we do share some common ground:  we both see a close relationship between the fate of the dollar & that of gold.




We are already witnessing nations moving away from the US reserve currency.  Some though, Japan and China in particular hold too many and till now have been part of holding it together, the latter to maintain trade and protect the asset, so to speak.   The US of course in toto are producing less across the board than the costs associated with  the borrowings.  A weaker dollar means less actual cost in these repayments.

The situation with Germany and the US back in the 20's was the same, US lent to Germany so that they could buy US goods.   Printing presses lessened the debt but the conundrum was a part of what created WW2.   There are many similar signs today that would indicate we are heading down the same path.  The US have the war machine and the debt levels.

We are in for a rough ride and a US dollar falling off the cliff appears to be part of it and in spite of the jawboning "the plan".   Gold for some time will be one of the alternatives untill a new global money order is re-established.

IMVHO


----------



## Ageo

I have a simple question for all the skeptics out there that think gold and other commodoties are over priced. Isnt a commodity something that has a limit to? i.e paper can be printed all the time but gold? silver? oil?

Precious metals (i.e gold and silver) was the currency for many many centuries. Surely it has to increase in value over time. 

I mean 1 person would think that if supply's start to shorten then eventually prices will rise. If you keep mining gold for example eventually you will deplete it.

Just interested in your thoughts?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gold is not use up(mostly). It just sits around, the more that is mined the more that is ready to be dumped on any demand once it become attractive enough price wise. Unlike oil which gets used as its produced.


----------



## skyQuake

Yeah, most of it is made into jewelery and stored. Very little is actually 'consumed'. Almost all gold ever mined since the beginning of time is just sitting around... waiting. Same cant be said of other commodities...
Silver is a bit different, Around 1/3 is acually used for jewelery. 1/4 is for photohgraphy and the rest industrial uses... Still a crapload lying around though.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Gold is not use up(mostly). It just sits around, the more that is mined the more that is ready to be dumped on any demand once it become attractive enough price wise. Unlike oil which gets used as its produced.




I drank some gold the other day in some Austrian Schnapps.


----------



## explod

I dont' like it as much as the first merlot I have just put in front of myself for the evening but I do like it a lot.

I brought my first 10 oz block in June 20084 for $390 and the damned thing just keeps growing in stature year by year.

Not too sure of exactly what does it but, greed, store of wealth, or some other, but it is blo.dy marvelous.

IMVHO as allways


----------



## solomon

Where is it headed? Well just at this moment it is headed south. It seems to be dropping out of the sky. Is it that weakness in the euro would seem to suggest USD strength and that is bad for gold?


----------



## Whiskers

Well, seems like the POG is behaving as predicted so far... so time to gaze a bit further ahead again.

It's looking like it will complete the first minor leg up, in what I reckon is *cycle III*, any day now... about 845, maybe 860.

Then, I reckon it will sort out a little abc for wave 2 between say 810 and 845 over the next week or so... before heading for 880 odd. 

All going like clockwork. Not even the bludy russians have been able to upset my general target... at least so far. 

Feeling pretty good for a general market recovery with a steadyily increasing gold price, especially in AUD.

Got a few resource species lined up that have just about statistically bottomed out and due for considerable recoveries.


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> I dont' like it as much as the first merlot I have just put in front of myself for the evening but I do like it a lot.
> 
> I brought my first 10 oz block in June 20084 for $390 and the damned thing just keeps growing in stature year by year.
> 
> Not too sure of exactly what does it but, greed, store of wealth, or some other, but it is blo.dy marvelous.
> 
> IMVHO as allways




hehe explod, if POG worth $390 in the year 20084, we are all "freaking doomed!".  

But well done on the purchase regardless.

(p.s: off topic, but  $#^%$#@^#@^ spider crawled on my desk just as I was typing this, that's two dead now...)

Anyway, the USD Index is really struggling to break out top at the moment.


----------



## Kauri

just a completely idle thought...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:


> just a completely idle thought...
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



Don't forget to show us (or tell us) timeframe. 

eg your chart is daily

Cheers


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> hehe explod, if POG worth $390 in the year 20084, we are all "freaking doomed!".
> 
> But well done on the purchase regardless.
> 
> (p.s: off topic, but  $#^%$#@^#@^ spider crawled on my desk just as I was typing this, that's two dead now...)
> 
> Anyway, the USD Index is really struggling to break out top at the moment.




Actually 2008 would have been something smart.    Spiders hanging around are said to b e good luck.   The fact that they are dying a bit of a worry.

Now, not one to make predictions but feel gold may break up 40 odd dollars over the next day or two.   Just a wild hunch that the bad news is going to weigh big on the US dollar.     We will see.


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> just a completely idle thought...
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Yeah, that was my first thought too, kauri. But after looking at oil, seemingly with a complete little abc and hanging on by it's fingernails and the USD index not too much further away from popping up again, I went for that sideways bit as a iv and looking for a rather stumpy little leg v leading into the abc to come.

News out of the US tonight may decide it for us. 

But in any case there seems to be more consensus that gold is on the up again.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> It's looking like it will complete the first minor leg up, in what I reckon is *cycle III*, any day now... about 845, maybe 860.




Well, I might be pre-empting things a bit... but I think it now looks like we'll have to be happy with about 843/4 (depending on which spot price chart you look at), cos with better than expected US GDP and assuming Gustav isn't going to be a problem and goes away soon, POO is set to drop to new lows too.


----------



## BentRod

Does that mean your bearish Gold then Whiskers??


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> Well, I might be pre-empting things a bit... but I think it now looks like we'll have to be happy with about 843/4 (depending on which spot price chart you look at)



Whiskers, what about the 'maybe $860'? 

Does this mean you are going to claim you were _exactly right_ on the $845 prediction, even though you gave two possible numbers...

Just wondering how this prediction success game works...


----------



## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> Does that mean your bearish Gold then Whiskers??




No way mate. Well, not unless you want to try to clip a little short off something near 843/4 in the next few days.



kennas said:


> Whiskers, what about the 'maybe $860'?
> 
> Does this mean you are going to claim you were _exactly right_ on the $845 prediction, even though you gave two possible numbers...
> 
> Just wondering how this prediction success game works...




Nah, not really kennas. I'll refer to the XAO thread where I just explained my motives which are mainly to put a bit of a dent in the tide of negativity about the future of the Aus market and potential to reasonably predict the market (if one puts in enough work) and give some hope to the average person that there are good trading and investment oppertunities about.

Not very optermistic about 860 now, the upper range of my target, unless Gustav or something else springs a surprise.

Basically I'm still thinking oil down a little and tending to consolidate or in EW lingo sort out a minor correction for awhile and gold likewise consolidate in the range of 810 to 843/4 before moving up again later.

But since the fall of oil and the improving outlook for the US economy will put downward pressure on gold, the other side of the coin that keeps it supported is the supply (of new production) issue which is rather unclear, but I'm thinking is going to only get worse for some time yet. I don't see much coming onto the market from those rather covert Reserve Bank sales.

How do ya think this'll fare as a investment newsletter subscription or news columnist!  Gotta be better than some out there eh!


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> How do ya think this'll fare as a investment newsletter subscription or news columnist!  Gotta be better than some out there eh!



I'm not sure how many people would listen to a house cat. 

Maybe you should upgrade to a larger feline..... lol 


Rates and USD perception are the flavour of the month with it's influence on POG. 

Even the Georgia thing, on top of everything else, can't get a decent rally going. 


*'Sell every rally' as gold loses glitter*
August 30, 2008 - 8:20AM 

Gold fell, capping the biggest monthly decline since April 2004, as the US dollar climbed against the euro, eroding the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.

The US dollar headed for the biggest monthly gain since the European currency began trading in 1999. Gold generally moves in tandem with the euro. The metal has tumbled 19% from a record $US1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, partly because the Federal Reserve ended a series of reductions in benchmark borrowing costs.


----------



## explod

> Selling this week in gold was
> provided by the funds who
> were busy adding to existing
> shorts with the result that
> their net long position
> continues to shrink and is
> now the lowest it has been in
> nearly a year.
> Commercials actually added
> a considerable number of
> new longs, 9,315 to be exact
> with the bullion banks adding
> only 1,080 new shorts. My
> guess is that it was the
> bullion banks who capped
> gold in the latter portion of
> the week as it neared $850.
> With the very low speculative
> interest in the long side of
> gold, any change in the
> technicals that would trigger
> computerized system buying
> would bring in a great deal of
> money that has been sitting
> on the sidelines in gold.
> If you examine a monthly
> chart of gold you will see that
> the last time the opposing
> players were near current
> position levels at the end of
> August 2007, gold was
> trading near $675. The next
> month, September, it
> commenced a run that took it
> above $1000 in 6 month's
> time. Gold needs a spark to
> set it off.




From Don Dinachi via Jim Sinclair's webpage.

Looking very close to a big change one way or the other.   The next week or so may be very interesting indeed as the optimistic messages/Massages) are becoming a tad unrealistic now.


----------



## bvbfan

kennas said:


> Hi amory, were you around Share Cafe a couple of years ago? Good to see you here.
> 
> In regard to $1.80, that's a nice guess.
> 
> But doesn't seem to correlate to any FA or TA that I can imagine.
> 
> Is that from a crystal ball, or tea leaves?
> 
> Ah, you also might want to make sure discussion of stocks go in the relevant stock thread. LGL has one, just play around with the search function.
> 
> Cheers!
> kennas




kennas you know amory is gr_basher don't you?

Amazing how one person can get himself ignored on 3 different forums, must take some real effort to achieve that!!!


----------



## Whiskers

bvbfan said:


> kennas you know amory is gr_basher don't you?
> 
> Amazing how one person can get himself ignored on 3 different forums, must take some real effort to achieve that!!!




LOL. 

So you've seen a bit of him too eh!


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> LOL.
> 
> So you've seen a bit of him too eh!




  Apparently an author as well??


 Jeers
............Kauri


----------



## Mofra

Australian Gold Output at 18 year lows

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24273531-14334,00.html



> AUSTRALIAN gold production dropped to an 18-year low in 2007-08.
> And this is amid soaring costs linked to record-high oil prices and a gas plant explosion in Western Australia.
> 
> According to a survey released yesterday by mining consultants Surbiton Associates, gold output totalled 232 tonnes - worth about $7.2 billion at current prices - last financial year.
> 
> That is the lowest production since 1989-90 and a hefty 27 per cent down on the record levels of a decade ago.
> 
> It follows a 12 per cent drop in gold production during the March quarter, as miners reduced their average grades to recover more gold over the life of the mine and take advantage of high gold prices.
> 
> Although production edged up again by 2 tonnes or 3 per cent to 55 tonnes in the three months ended June 30, the sector was held back from a full recovery by rocketing energy costs.
> 
> Surbiton director Sandra Close said higher energy prices were clearly contributing to the cost pressures felt by gold miners.
> 
> "While you can't draw too many conclusions from just one quarter's figures, there is cause for concern," she said. "Two of the gold sector's real challenges are cost containment and exploration spending."
> 
> Western Australia - which produces about three-quarters of the nation's gold - was especially hard hit by record energy and fuel costs in the June quarter.
> 
> The Varanus Island pipeline explosion cut off gas supplies to many mines, forcing producers to switch to costly and hard-to-come-by diesel to power their operations.
> 
> At the same time, oil prices jumped to more than $US140 a barrel during the period.
> 
> Gold was trading at just over $US837 an ounce in New York on Friday night, down from its record price of $US1033 reached in March.
> 
> Dr Close expects gold production to rise in the second half of calendar 2008, as several new and recycled operations swing into action.
> 
> "Avoca Resources poured its first gold from Higginsville in July," she said, "Apex Minerals will restart Wiluna in November and St Barbara plans to re-start Gwalia in the next few months.
> 
> "Before the end of the year, both Oz Minerals Prominent Hill and Lihir Gold's Ballarat East should also be in production; then will come Boddington - the grand-daddy of them all - in late 2008 or early 2009."
> 
> The largest gold producer in 2007-08 was Newcrest Mining Corp's Telfer mine with 590,218 ounces, followed by Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining's Super Pit joint venture with 567,000 ounces


----------



## amory

bvbfan said:


> kennas you know amory is gr_basher don't you?
> 
> Amazing how one person can get himself ignored on 3 different forums, must take some real effort to achieve that!!!




... abused, ridiculed but proven right many times (such as that Gold is just another commodity & which will fall to half of what some experts are predicting - which is exactly what happened, and that the Fed much to everyone's surprise knows what they're doing!) ...

but when you say IGNORED ... never!!!


----------



## Real1ty

amory said:


> ... abused, ridiculed but proven right many times (such as that Gold is just another commodity & which will fall to half of what some experts are predicting - which is exactly what happened, and that the Fed much to everyone's surprise knows what they're doing!) ...
> 
> but when you say IGNORED ... never!!!




And so it begins......


----------



## Investor123

Trading oil / gold spread will be a better choice in this kind of choppy environment:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12198


----------



## explod

amory said:


> ...  and that the Fed much to everyone's surprise knows what they're doing!) ...
> 
> but when you say IGNORED ... never!!!




Would be particularly interested in how you think the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube.

Some quatifiable specifics will assist my outlook.

cheers explod


----------



## amory

explod said:


> Would be particularly interested in how you think the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube.
> 
> Some quatifiable specifics will assist my outlook.
> 
> cheers explod




I cannot answer this my friend.  fact is, I was as amazed as anyone when the market regained its confidence in the Fed, proving this by going up.

_"how the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube"_ to tell the truth I've got no idea.  all I know is they'll do it.  

the only thing I found even more surprising was that Gold went up right along with the Dow.  does that mean there are still people out there who think gold will one day find its rightful place as the alternative currency to the despised fiat-currency, the one which is supposed to be heading straight for Zimbabwe-like collapse?

pardon me for laughing.  ha-ha.  the dollar will still be around for a long while yet, dire predictions notwithstanding.  until then, the answer to
_"Gold Price - Where is it heading?" _can only be:  not very far!


----------



## cluster

History would suggest otherwise on both accounts, unless the Fed can pull a rabbit out of its hat, in which case why hasn't it done so earlier?


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Basically I'm still thinking oil down a little and tending to consolidate or in EW lingo sort out a minor correction for awhile and gold likewise consolidate in the range of 810 to 843/4 before moving up again later.




Aah, what the hell... I'll say it'll come back to 112/13 (depending on which spot chart you use) probably tomorrow.


----------



## BentRod

I like a Short if 824.50 gets breached.


----------



## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> I like a Short if 824.50 gets breached.




There she goes.


----------



## BentRod

that was quick


----------



## Aussiest

BentRod said:


> I like a Short if 824.50 gets breached.




How do you actually trade futures? Which brokers can you use?

And, how do you actually trade them? I know that you can trade different sized contracts in forex, for eg, $10.00 ones, $100.00 ones etc. (very basic knowledge).

Which is more profitable to trade: hard or soft commodities?

And, is it possible to get a practice account?


----------



## BentRod

Aus,
       I'm using a forex broker, not trading Futures.
Position sizing is dynamic the same as it is for Currencies.

Interactive Brokers would be the best choice for Futs.



> And, is it possible to get a practice account?




Most of the metatrader demos should have Gold.
Try the russian Alpari one, it's the only one I have found with USDX which I I use a bit, also has Nat Gas and Crude contracts.

http://www.alpari-idc.com/en/metatrader4/open-demo-account.html


----------



## explod

amory said:


> I cannot answer this my friend.  fact is, I was as amazed as anyone when the market regained its confidence in the Fed, proving this by going up.
> 
> _"how the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube"_ to tell the truth I've got no idea.  all I know is they'll do it.
> 
> the only thing I found even more surprising was that Gold went up right along with the Dow.  does that mean there are still people out there who think gold will one day find its rightful place as the alternative currency to the despised fiat-currency, the one which is supposed to be heading straight for Zimbabwe-like collapse?
> 
> pardon me for laughing.  ha-ha.  the dollar will still be around for a long while yet, dire predictions notwithstanding.  until then, the answer to
> _"Gold Price - Where is it heading?" _can only be:  not very far!




Good investors and economist do not make predictions.   They follow the trends and carefully analyse fundamentals.   If you were to do that you will indeed find that the US dollar has been falling now for five years and for very good fundamental reasons.   The US has over spent, can no longer pay their bills or loan repayments.

I could go on but a waste on some but those who follow this thread understand.

I do not know what will happen to overcome the problems of paper money that has lost its tangible value.  Gold is a very small component of any alternative and its very finite supply will see it go through the roof with just a small amount of attention.

The fear of its going up grips the US as it send a wrong message to the sheeple.  Witness last night on a holiday in the US they sell it down $15.   And all the very bad business news on Wall Street was released after the close of market on Friday night.

If you follow you current idea that the Fed may save ya without any idea of how there will not be too much Ha Ha or He he going your way.


----------



## amory

Not saying the Fed will save the world - but they obviously know what they're doing or their economy would have collapsed along with the credit crisis.  as it is, there are glimmers of hope emerging in the US & which are having a beneficial effect on our market as well.  how they'll do it, I've got no idea, but do it they will.

where will Gold be going?  look at a recent chart of it & you tell me!

even during the current miniboom - yes, RIO BHP WPL CSL etc, even the most unlikely ERA - have been outperforming the best golds by miles!

Jesse Livermore said:  Markets are never wrong, opinions are.  Follow the trend.

just as an afterthought:  there is some weakness creeping into the USDollar.  an unexpected twist perhaps?  arguing with you guys is fun because the POG & the market are proving me right, but I don't intend to argue with the market if & when.....


----------



## Kauri

amory said:


> just as an afterthought: there is some *weakness creeping into the USDollar*. an unexpected twist perhaps? arguing with you guys is fun because the POG & the market are proving me right, but I don't intend to argue with the market if & when.....




  weakness *may* creep in... but I for one am not seeing it yet???

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> weakness *may* creep in... but I for one am not seeing it yet???
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Me for two...

Broken up short term trend line.

I still see it getting into the 80's pretty soon.


----------



## amory

Quite so, Kauri, Whiskers!  and I was only throwing the observation in (regarding the dollar) because that's the ONLY hope gold has got, if it's EVER to outperform:  a total collapse of the dollar.  

you don't see it & I don't.  as for the others, keep your fingers crossed!  patience is a virtue.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Me for two...
> 
> Broken up short term trend line.
> 
> I still see it getting into the 80's pretty soon.




Maybe, but for how long.   For traders yes, investors are distinctly different, the longer term fundamental shifts are the focus.   My thesis needs to be viewed in that context.

In fact I used to sit in front of a screen a lot once and day trade, and very successfully too.   I make less now but I sleep better and the blood pressure has reduced, more important to me now.   However the experience itself was well worth it.    Having said that the reading and study required of fundamental economics takes a great deal more time and work.

Though it is but a small component of the financial world, greed based on old habits and tradition will run the gold price up.   

Short sighted comments (and not singling you out Whiskers), that often creep in on this thread at times, indicate little appreaciation of what is really going on underneath.


----------



## Whiskers

Oil's just started another dive towards 100 and the USD index up another notch or two, but hummm.... according to my calculator a technical target is 797, but I think gold should pretty well hold above 800.

By my reckonening, oil will start a significant corrective phase shortly, (by time period, not price) which will help gold push back up into the low 800's again.


----------



## Whiskers

The falling AUD and POO are playing into the Aus mining industry hands nicely.

I'm tipping that gap to widen as the USD strengthens quite a bit further and gold moves more to the mid 800's in USD's over the next few weeks.


----------



## BentRod

Stop moved to $822.


----------



## BentRod

> but I think gold should pretty well hold above 800.




Would make a nice Buy with a real tight stop now then?


----------



## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> Would make a nice Buy with a real tight stop now then?




Yeah, if I'm right, this is just about the end of the corrective abc wave 2. Wave 3 should get back into the mid 800's.

It'll never be this cheap again, bearing in mind it's just kicking off a cycle III.


----------



## amory

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, if I'm right, this is just about the end of the corrective abc wave 2. Wave 3 should get back into the mid 800's.
> 
> It'll never be this cheap again, bearing in mind it's just kicking off a cycle III.




is it really?  well that's good to know.  have no fear, I won't attempt to bash your precious commodity.  it's doing a first-class job of doing just that, all by itself alone!


----------



## explod

amory said:


> is it really?  well that's good to know.  have no fear, I won't attempt to bash your precious commodity.  it's doing a first-class job of doing just that, all by itself alone!




Its up 20% for the last 12 months, which is about average per annum since 2001.

The only bashing is Planet Wall Street off market when all the traders are on long weekend holidays.


----------



## cuttlefish

So oil is down because the US and global economy is looking like it is going to be slow and thus there will be 'demand destruction'.

On that basis the Dow rose initially until realising ... hang on ... if the economy is a basket case then maybe thats not so good for stocks after all.

And the US dollar is rising because the US economy, right now, appears to be less of a basket case than the european and japanese economies, even though the US is at the epicentre of the current credit crisis.

So everything is going down - oil, gold,commodities, non-US currencies- except the USD which is rising because:

a) The government has printed a lot more of them and extra supply always creates extra demand  
b) The US economy is a great place to invest right now due to its strong growth and low levels of debt and so is attracting the bulk of investment funds.

I get confused as to which one it is. 

On the technical side I think this test of this support around 790ish is important - if it can hold this that would be nice but I still see it as more likely to do a final capitulation fall through it to find new support at around 720-730 sort of range (possibly even overshooting briefly down to 690 even) before building into the next long upward trend.

The plus side for Australian gold producers is that because gold's fall is largely a result of the USD rising, the AUD/USD exchange rate will mean the AUD gold price will still remain relatively strong.


----------



## amory

_<< On the technical side I think this test of this support around 790ish is important - if it can hold this that would be nice but I still see it as more likely to do a final capitulation fall through it to find new support at around 720-730 sort of range (possibly even overshooting briefly down to 690 even) before building into the next long upward trend. >>_

this being the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Darwin in 1942, it is only fitting that one should draw some parallels.  the fall of Singapore & other outposts of empire, that took no time at all.  but "the next long upward trend" where the allied forces regained territory lost, is that what you've got in mind for Gold, Cuttlefish?  I can just see the POG & its devotees dragging themselves, their faith sorely tested by sickness & deprivation along some Kokoda track for years to come....


----------



## cuttlefish

Yes if it breaches the current support levels and capitulates to those lower levels I'd consider the 'back' of the current short term bullish leg(i.e. the past 18month or so rally) largely broken and it would resume a slower and more steady rise driven by fundamentals (primarily rising input costs causing falling supply).  In that scenario it might even be years before reaching a new USD high (AUD high still a possibility though depending on exchange rates).


But it hasn't yet breached the support around the 790ish range so at this point the resumption of a rally into new highs in the next 6 to 12 months is still a possibility imo.  

And if at any stage if the USD finds itself an elevator to go down on then gold could rise equally quickly and dramatically upwards as a counter to the USD plunge.

(in summary ... up, down or sideways


----------



## amory

_<< And if at any stage if the USD finds itself an elevator to go down on then gold could rise equally quickly and dramatically upwards as a counter to the USD plunge.>>_

Then & only then!  anything else is dreams & unrelated to the hard reality.  like refusing to believe that a beautiful relationship is over once & for all.


----------



## Whiskers

amory said:


> is it really?




Yes indeed! Just follow this space. 



> well that's good to know.  have no fear, I won't attempt to bash your precious commodity.  it's doing a first-class job of doing just that, all by itself alone!




How so Amory?

I have no emotional attachment to gold or any investment instrument for that matter. 

As many have said it's the ultimate, alternate or defacto real currency in the world or maybe just some scarce dirt to make jewellery and thats just how I treat it. I follow it's value closely as part of a strategy of tracking the present and future value of my investments that are affected by it's value. 

The preciousness for me is in the quality of life that successful investing in any instrument brings.


----------



## amory

hi Whiskers!

_<< The preciousness for me is in the quality of life that successful investing in any instrument brings. >>_

I can appreciate that sentiment.  but wouldn't it help if someone was to point out to the POG that it's racing hellbent in the wrong direction?  the way it cleared the 800 mark without so much as a sideways glance ...


----------



## explod

amory said:


> hi Whiskers!
> 
> _<< The preciousness for me is in the quality of life that successful investing in any instrument brings. >>_
> 
> I can appreciate that sentiment.  but wouldn't it help if someone was to point out to the POG that it's racing hellbent in the wrong direction?  the way it cleared the 800 mark without so much as a sideways glance ...




For the second time today, I would point out that gold is up 20% since this time last year and this is how it has behaved since 2001 and there is no reason to believe it will change that behaviour.  In fact it has had a larger correction than this around 2006.

So address that or get off your horse


----------



## amory

Nick Radge - The Chartist - sees the POG down to seven hundred easy, even an eventual six hundred not outside the realm of possibility & he backs it up with EW theory.  looks like I am not alone in my bearish outlook any more.  but if you want to fight a rearguard battle, be my guest.  only that this is not a correction any more, it's a rout.

the 20% increase by the way, is not impressive compared to just about any other commodities.  yes I know, gold is the alternative currency to the fiat-currency.  that'll be the day!


----------



## explod

amory said:


> Nick Radge - The Chartist - sees the POG down to seven hundred easy, even an eventual six hundred not outside the realm of possibility & he backs it up with EW theory.  looks like I am not alone in my bearish outlook any more.  but if you want to fight a rearguard battle, be my guest.  only that this is not a correction any more, it's a rout.
> 
> the 20% increase by the way, is not impressive compared to just about any other commodities.  yes I know, gold is the alternative currency to the fiat-currency.  that'll be the day!




Not fighting any action, gold will go where gold goes.  Nick (for whom many ramp on these forums) has no more idea than anyone else.  You have still not addressed my question.,  ?


----------



## amory

explod said:


> Not fighting any action, gold will go where gold goes.  Nick (for whom many ramp on these forums) has no more idea than anyone else.  You have still not addressed my question.,  ?




what's the question, Explod?

the only reason I'm quoting Nick (or Twiggs or any other chartist) is because these guys back their predictions up with charts & T/A.  more often than not, they will give an alternative direction & targets in case the first one fails.  there I agree with you, altho I would not go so far as to say that they have no idea.

myself, develop a gut feeling towards certain stocks & commodities which does not let me down.  as a writer, I tend to identify, to personalize if you like.  I see them not just as charts & inanimate numbers, for me they take on human characteristics.  when I declare my contempt for LGL, is one such example.  I am not being facetious, I feel it!

other than that, I am not emotional & never allow myself to get involved in violent debate.  now, if you would be kind enough to rephrase the question, I shall try to deal with it in a rational manner.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> For the second time today, I would point out that gold is up 20% since this time last year and this is how it has behaved since 2001 and there is no reason to believe it will change that behaviour.  In fact it has had a larger correction than this around 2006.




Yes but this is the thing that always stumps me. *How in the hell do the GOLD BUGs make money on their love affair??* Most don't know how to trade Futures and certainly not long dated Fut options.

When you buy physical gold its looks to have a spread/Commission/storage/delivery around 5% to 10% and when you are actually holding it you are not likely to cash it in until it goes to the moon and conversely your not likely to take a 20% stop loss on it just like an antique or house. You just hold!!

So what does that leave?? Gold producers/explores. And they have been rubbish for the last 2 years!! Some disasters like your SBM. As far as I can see no one here has made money on gold for some time yet the love has not diminished. A shrink would have a field day in this thread!! :


----------



## Aussiest

amory said:


> there I agree with you, altho I would not go so far as to say that they have no idea.




Amory,

I don't know whether it's my imagination, but you've done nothing but be rude to people since you have gotten here.

There is a way to say things, so that it doesn't come across in the disrespectful manner that you seem to be exhibiting.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes but this is the thing that always stumps me. *How in the hell do the GOLD BUGs make money on their love affair??* Most don't know how to trade Futures and certainly not long dated Fut options.




Most? That would be an interesting set of data, where is it?

The conviction of the 'bugs' is only matched by the assumptions of the doubters I guess?

Looking at a chart of the Dow & Gold, you'd have to wonder how people made money from the Dow, most don't know how to?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Most? That would be an interesting set of data, where is it?




Purely an assumption as it seems the only people that play with the Futs or a linked CFD are traders (shortish term) not the fundamental gold to $3000 dollar players.

As always I'm probably wrong. But put your hand up if you trade a gold derivative over any period longer than front month?? I don't expect to hear from many.



Uncle Festivus said:


> The conviction of the 'bugs' is only matched by the assumptions of the doubters I guess?



 I'm neither but I am intrigued with one sides love affair with their unfaithful partner.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Purely an assumption as it seems the only people that play with the Futs or a linked CFD are traders (shortish term) not the fundamental gold to $3000 dollar players.
> 
> As always I'm probably wrong. But put your hand up if you trade a gold derivative over any period longer than front month?? I don't expect to hear from many.
> 
> I'm neither but I am intrigued with one sides love affair with their unfaithful partner.




You wouldn't let your bias get in the way of a trade on gold would you? You do _trade_ gold? 

We're not all gun toting survivalists _hoping_ for the end of the world, just probably calculating that the world could be a very different place for a few years yet, and don't trust the clowns in charge of it generally to deliver us from salvation.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes but this is the thing that always stumps me. *How in the hell do the GOLD BUGs make money on their love affair??* :





Gold bugs such as myself are not traders.  This point has been made several times in the last week or two.

I am an investor.     If I purchased land in 2002 for $400,000 and today that land is worth $800,000 I would be very pleased with myself.   Instead of land some of my money is in the physical metal and that is what it has done.    Eight years ago I brought units in a commercial property at $1. each, today they are worth $3.50 and have been paying 10% interest along the way.

So before any of you get frustrated with some of us gold bugs consider the clear distinction between trader and investor.   Both types are entitled to an equal place on these forums.

I also believe that in the next year or so there is going to be a huge adjustment in currency values and part of that will see a short but very high jump in the gold price.  Just my take on how I read the future of markets.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> You wouldn't let your bias get in the way of a trade on gold would you? You do _trade_ gold?



 No because when I trade I have stops that never get moved down. Unlike some of the gold bugs. and Yes I do trade gold. Both stocks from 03 till last year and Futs all the time.



Uncle Festivus said:


> We're not all gun toting survivalists _hoping_ for the end of the world, just probably calculating that the world could be a very different place for a few years yet, and don't trust the clowns in charge of it generally to deliver us from salvation.



Yes Uncle I understand that. I just don't understand how you translate that into profit in the medium to yet to be played out longer term. Thats all  You may be all singing the told you so song come this time next year or the year after (and I actually hope so) I just would like to see how the love is returned.


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> So what does that leave?? Gold producers/explores. And they have been rubbish for the last 2 years!!




Not sure that I'd agree they've been rubbish for the last two years.  Quite a lot of money was made on explorers and near producers from earrly/mid-07 up until around Feb-08.  Since then its been rather painful though ...  

I am pretty dissappointed at the extent of the selldown of gold stocks in light of the fact that the AUD gold price has continued to remain very strong compared to 12 months ago and the gold price has performed relatively well compared to some of the base metals for example (Zn, Ni etc.).

I think that for the selective there is some real value starting to emerge here and there, and that some of these stocks must be close to the end of the capitulation phase - though a fall in gold price to low $700's if it occurs could be the trigger for a final rout.  

There are a few stocks trading at close to cash backing and well under net asset backing that have good projects and prospects.  There are some that are in pretty good positive cashflow situations on theoretically very low forward PE's (2 or 3).   There are also some that have been consistently progressing their projects and discoveries and adding value to their businesses while their market caps have fallen considerably and are well below the project NPV's.  (I don't count SBM amongst them just yet though as I'm a bit wary of their operating costs and cashflow situation and the gwalia startup though if the gold price ran up over $1000 again they'd be good leverage to it).


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> Not sure that I'd agree they've been rubbish for the last two years.  Quite a lot of money was made on explorers and near producers from earrly/mid-07 up until around Feb-08.  Since then its been rather painful though ...



That was my point. That they have ran up but anyone that is in love with Gold reckons its going to go nuts and wouldn't of sold. They most likely have been in for the ride up and then all the way back.


cuttlefish said:


> I am pretty dissappointed at the extent of the selldown of gold stocks in light of the fact that the AUD gold price has continued to remain very strong compared to 12 months ago and the gold price has performed relatively well compared to some of the base metals for example (Zn, Ni etc.).



Yes I agree. But at least you express disappointment which is the norm in this game. Some here will only blame "manipulators" but never their "partners" for the gold/gold stocks under-performance. I am intrigued by their love for something that has actually not rewarded them as far as I can see. Am I missing something other than "I'm in for the long haul"? Where has the love come from?


----------



## Kauri

for those who follow the line that $US and Gold are linked... the $USIndex looks ominous... but is early days yet...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> Am I missing something other than "I'm in for the long haul"? Where has the love come from?





Why still optimistic - well so far I haven't seen much change in the fundamentals which is why I'm still optimistic I will see good returns out of the gold stocks I'm holding at the moment at some point.  The gold price is still stronger than it was 12 months ago - particularly the AUD gold price. The US economy is still a basket case as far as I can tell and too many US dollars have been printed and will continue to be as far as I can tell.  Gold supply is still diminishing across the world.  Central bank sales seem to have slowed down.  There is also the cultural element that is eminating from the middle eastern and asian countries, that have a traditional cultural link to gold, gaining more affluence, but these cultural trends can tend to spread beyond their origins and become a world wide trend.  

The biggest reason is in the event of a USD/global currency related black swan sort of event I still see gold as having the potential to rise very sharply and significantly.

Thats at the macro level.  At the individual stock level the stocks I've shifted my funds into now have strong cash positions, strong management and robust projects that can weather further gold price falls and they have been increasing the value of their projects through exploration and development success.


----------



## Kauri

Gold, Oil, softs, shares, Mountain Oysters, they all have one thing in common..  they are commodes that can be bought and sold... if they are trending up then buy, if they are trending down then sell, if the trade goes agin you then cut it and move on... to build a sentiment for any is dangerous... maybe try trading without looking to see what the instrument is... you'll possibly be surprised at how different the decisions you make will be without the unconcious sentimental bias attached...  maybe.. I thunk..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

BentRod said:


> Stop moved to $822.





Gold showing strength after NFP, might get pinged on this one.


----------



## noirua

BentRod said:


> Gold showing strength after NFP, might get pinged on this one.



Gold usually always shows strength during Ramadan.


----------



## explod

I have been sceptical of some of the conspiracy theories, but on seeeing how the overnight gains, particularly silver were wiped out by the end of US trade my views are changing.    I think a thread  and submissions to our government on shorting is my next objective.   The following from jsminsite:



> Dear Friends:
> 
> As you can well imagine, I’ve been receiving many phone calls and emails during this recent downturn in the gold market. Because of my heavy workload, I can’t guarantee to respond to all your queries, however, I will attempt to address questions of general interest on the jsmineset website.
> 
> The entire minerals sector is presently under attack by organized short sellers who depend on demoralizing investors to achieve their profit goals. These are ruthless zealots who flaunt the law to achieve their devious objectives.
> 
> G to www.failstodeliver.com and enter the symbol of any US-traded company to see the activity of naked shorting based on figures from the Securities Exchange Commission.
> 
> As far as the gold market is concerned  we are in the middle of “Operation Keep the Hill” in which every stop has been pulled out to paint a picture of improving business conditions and permanent, declining inflation because of supposedly lower long term energy and food prices.
> 
> The big six investment banks are forecasting a 3% improvement in consumer demand as sentiment improves due to the supposed drop in inflation. The improvement in share value of some financials - based on nothing but hype - is held up as proof that the credit problems are behind us regardless of Lehman being busted while Fannie and Freddie are hopeless hulks in dire need of camouflage.
> 
> The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is getting to a point where they need recapitalization, with 199 banks on the troubled list and probably a lot more to come.
> 
> The Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) is a joke capitalized at $1.5 billion yet they are still quoted as the guarantor of all security values at all brokerage firms.
> 
> Fundamental factors remain in a downward spiral while black boxes, spinners, the big six and all financial TV and radio stations blare out that “all is well.”
> 
> I have lived through these major manipulations before but this time it is happening in every market, with shareholders feeling the heat no matter what kind of equities they are in. In my opinion, when the dust finally settles the last people standing will be those in gold equities
> 
> In today’s news the following items are particularly newsworthy:
> 
> U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Tsunami,' Gross Says (Update3)
> 
> By Jody Shenn
> 
> Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government needs to start using more of its money to support markets to stem a burgeoning ``financial tsunami,'' according to Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund.
> 
> Banks, securities firms and hedge funds are dumping assets, driving down prices of bonds, real estate, stocks and commodities, Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said in commentary posted on the firm's Web site today.
> 
> ``Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami,'' Mr. Gross said. ``If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury.''
> 
> More...
> 
> Lehman May Shift $32 Billion of Mortgage Assets to `Bad Bank'
> 
> By Yalman Onaran
> 
> Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may shift about $32 billion of commercial mortgages and real estate to a new company that will be spun off in a move similar to the good-bank-bad-bank model used in the 1980s banking crisis, two people briefed on the discussions said.
> 
> The bad bank, nicknamed Spinco for now, would have about $8 billion of equity coming from Lehman, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the plan is one of several under consideration. Spinco would borrow the remaining $24 billion from Lehman or outside investors. The New York-based bank would replace capital put into Spinco, whose shares would be owned by current Lehman shareholders.
> 
> More...
> 
> Respectfully,
> 
> 
> Jim Sinclair


----------



## explod

Have also been pondering the demise of some very good aussie gold stocks with proven reserves about to produce being sold down heavily.   The Aussie gold price is up and has changed little since March.   Closed at $984.60

Big players are pushing the prices down.   Good gold pits are in short supply and gold itself sees production down.   You can be sure the big players behind this will be the large gold Companies ready to raid.

In any bull market the bull bucks violently at times to dislodge the weak.   There has been a bit of a sell off due to currency perception/manipulation and general jawboning and reactions is to what is happening the other side of the planet.

Stay strong, bullion and its equities will be rewarded because they carry no debt and have tangible value.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I have been sceptical of some of the conspiracy theories, but on seeeing how the overnight gains, particularly silver were wiped out by the end of US trade my views are changing.




LOL.

Huge volume on the way up then absolutely no interest after that. Just fell back on no volume. Hardly an attack by short sellers.

Quite simply no buying interest.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I think a thread  and submissions to our government on shorting is my next objective.




Maybe while you are at it you can get them to legislate to have only sunny days.


----------



## GreatPig

The way the ASX GOLD stock has been channelling along the Fib levels recently, you'd almost think gold was priced in A$ rather than US$.

GP


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Maybe while you are at it you can get them to legislate to have only sunny days.




So you reckon its ok for the big boys to short stock on insider information.   And not only that for analysts to then jawbone up and short it again.

We need a thread on this topic to get right into it.  Off topic here.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes but this is the thing that always stumps me. *How in the hell do the GOLD BUGs make money on their love affair??* Most don't know how to trade Futures and certainly not long dated Fut options.
> :




My gold and silver bullion is not for making money but for presevation of cash.   If and when I need money I can be at the vault then the dealers and have a cash cheque into my account within an hour.     When the market does become a bargain I will be back at making money.   In the meantime I have saved a huge percentage by being out of this market for the last 12 months.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> So you reckon its ok for the big boys to short stock on insider information.   And not only that for analysts to then jawbone up and short it again.
> 
> We need a thread on this topic to get right into it.  Off topic here.




They do the same on the way up, which every one cheers, but when it happens in reverse the suckers that have fallen in love with their own ideas cry foul. Its all part of taking money off the slow, silly and stubborn.


----------



## VViCKiD

wow... gees ... hasn't gold taken a hammering lately ?
anyone still optimistic about the september cycle ?


----------



## Whiskers

VViCKiD said:


> wow... gees ... hasn't gold taken a hammering lately ?
> anyone still optimistic about the september cycle ?




I wouldn't call it a hammering, VViCKiD.

It is actually holding up very well in the face of falling oil and strengthening USD. That suggests to me that while people are unloading to some extent with less concerns about economic conditions, there is a real lack of supply of new gold (and some other minerals) and is likely to continue for some time.

I think it's just in a consolidation stage, actually just about finished and by my analysis will trend to new recent high's again in the not too distant future.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whiskers said:


> , there is a real lack of supply of new gold




Why does it matter?? Where is the consumption?


----------



## Whiskers

Trembling Hand said:


> Why does it matter?? Where is the consumption?




Well, relatively speaking, even in economic slowdown a person consumes about the same, not a lot less anyway, on jewelery and other products containing gold, but the world population is ever increasing, so there is an endemic demand/consumption for gold particularly from developing and increasingly affluent countries like India and China.

A lot of the mining reports I've read point to a falling real supply of gold. Even if new supply remained static, eventually the price would rise on the abovementioned demand even without an increasing rate of hoarding by gold bugs for financial security.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Why does it matter?? Where is the consumption?




TH, are you trading this this morning? Nice long there at $778/$780 for the taking


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> TH, are you trading this this morning? Nice long there at $778/$780 for the taking




Not now. Had a play a couple of hours ago but it wasn't on the long side( well mostly not). Now just wasting time looking at numbers.

Off to bed in the same position I have been in just about all year...... 100% cash overnight.

I will leave it for you.


----------



## BentRod

> Off to bed in the same position I have been in just about all year...... 100% cash overnight.




hehe

smatr@ss  :


----------



## Kauri

just an idle thought...  ...  
Cheers
.............kauri


----------



## Aussiest

Whiskers said:


> I think it's just in a consolidation stage, QUOTE]
> 
> Really?! Lol.


----------



## BentRod

Whiskers said:


> Well, seems like the POG is behaving as predicted so far... so time to gaze a bit further ahead again.
> 
> It's looking like it will complete the first minor leg up, in what I reckon is *cycle III*, any day now... about 845, maybe 860.
> 
> Then, I reckon it will sort out a little abc for wave 2 between say 810 and 845 over the next week or so... before heading for 880 odd.
> 
> All going like clockwork. Not even the bludy russians have been able to upset my general target... at least so far.
> 
> Feeling pretty good for a general market recovery with a steadyily increasing gold price, especially in AUD.
> 
> Got a few resource species lined up that have just about statistically bottomed out and due for considerable recoveries.





Whiskers......You still buying??

I was thinking of selling some more if it breaches the Monthly TL.


----------



## Trembling Hand

A world of hate being inflicted on the longs by the pesky manipulators!!

Wait till they step into the stops below $760. Probably perfect time for a snap back?? I mean the manipulators have to cover some time!


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> just an idle thought...  ...
> Cheers
> .............kauri




That's... interesting, mate... but what's it all mean? 

What are the heavy lines? Are they software generated?



Aussiest said:


> Whiskers said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think it's just in a consolidation stage, QUOTE]
> 
> Really?! Lol.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah! :
> 
> 
> 
> BentRod said:
> 
> 
> 
> Whiskers......You still buying??
> 
> I was thinking of selling some more if it breaches the Monthly TL.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Yep, although I've mostly got what I want for now.
> 
> Been a bit volatile but when taking into account when oil and the USD move, I think it's still ok for the up trend.
> 
> Gold sorta gets utthedoor: a bit while oil and the USD gets some attention, but it keeps coming back to med term trend after the dust settles a bit.
Click to expand...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> A world of hate being inflicted on the longs by the pesky manipulators!!
> 
> Wait till they step into the stops below $760. Probably perfect time for a snap back?? I mean the manipulators have to cover some time!




Ah...you have finally flipped to the dark side, comrade gold bug

All markets are manipulated? More so the gold market coz it's so small. 

There are anomalies in central bank gold inventory statistics that have not been addressed for several years, possibly because the gold is not there.

Some government treasuries have stopped or reduced the minting of gold coins - why?

When gold is the direct competitor to the central banks tool of insipid wealth destruction ie paper money, it would seem obvious that some effort would go into the covert suppression of the gold price through insider conduits of manipulation, like selected banks, and a few years ago, gold companies themselves eg Barrick. (It has been proven that Barrick manipulated prices on behalf of bullion banks and or the US Fed itself)

So, while gold is velcro'd to commodities we just have to go with the flow, but I predict that we will see both gold & the Dow in 4 figures before the year is out - buy the dips, short the rallies respectively? 

The USD is getting closer to a capitulation top, then fundamentals shall prevail once again, even in the face of concerted efforts of the vested powers to save what's left of the dimming glow of the greatest credit expansion in history.

Is the US Fed still in money printing mode (inflationary)? You bet. Have a look at this article - 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/94635-stagflation-or-deflation


----------



## cuttlefish

A very simple question ... what is the alternative to the USD as a currency.

In my VH opinion the US has now, with the F'n'F bailout, firmly established itself as a basket case economy and the USD is now not really worth a heck of a lot.  Between Fanny and Freddy and the FDIC the US will be printing more US dollars than Sorbent prints double sided sheets and they are both of equivalent worth.

So on that basis what is the alternative?


*If* the world decides its gold (and 10,000 years of history has shown that its not that bad a bet after all really) then there isn't a heck of a lot of the shiny stuff when you add it all up.


But this is all rather irrelevant anyway, because, as per SAM9324's post, CERN has decided to end the world tomorow, and so I've nominated that as a top shelf excuse to imbibe.  :alcohol:


----------



## Kauri

> Whiskers said:
> 
> 
> 
> That's... interesting, mate... but what's it all mean?
> 
> What are the heavy lines? Are they software generated?
> 
> 
> Basically it's my take on EW... showing that we may be in an intermediate W3 of a larger W5... so expect.. and as happened... a sharp impulsive drop...
> 
> Cheers
> .........Kauri
Click to expand...


----------



## Aussiest

Whiskers said:


> Yeah! :




Yeah, i reckon gold's gonna hit the roof. At 756 today...

(I'm being sarcastic incase you didn't notice!).


----------



## wayneL

Aussiest said:


> Yeah, i reckon gold's gonna hit the roof. At 756 today...
> 
> (I'm being sarcastic incase you didn't notice!).



It's in a consolidation zone between 800 and 250 :


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> It's in a consolidation zone between 800 and 250 :



Who was that guy that said gold would ´t make a lower low, and was breaking up to $10,000 or something when it was $950 + ish....

He went off to the Perth mint to buy some gold that day.

I think I got in trouble for canning him.....


----------



## LeeTV

kennas said:


> Who was that guy that said gold would ´t make a lower low, and was breaking up to $10,000 or something when it was $950 + ish....
> 
> He went off to the Perth mint to buy some gold that day.
> 
> I think I got in trouble for canning him.....



I thought I saw him busking on Hay St yesterday :


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Bean, you could be the accurate one, after the latest action on the weekly we are forming a head and shoulders and could correct to support at $US640
> 
> Which would take us just past the US Presidential election.   Look out below.




From the 12th of August 08


Some may well smile now.       However as the US dollar become toilet paper early in 2009 shall we see the real events.

Interesting times indeed


----------



## Aussiest

What makes you think the USD will become toilet paper in early 2009?


----------



## cuttlefish

Gold has fallen through the 780-820 range that I saw as technical support so I'd concede that it could now get down into the low 700's and I even see the potential for it to touch 690 though I think any fall down to that level will be short lived and it would return to the mid 700 range fairly quickly.

On the fundamentals I still think that the moves by the US treasury only serve to support a bearish medium to long term view on the USD and as per my post above I'd like to know what alternatives there are as a store of value if the USD is perceived as being a risky investment.   Commodities, oil are difficult to store and thus impractical for investors to buy and take delivery of, gold is more practical.  The other currencies have shown themselves to be weak/risky as well and they are all theoretically pegged in USD anyway.

The other positive fundamental factor is the reducing mine supply world wide, combined with a growing affluent population with a cultural attachment to gold.

There is very clear value in some of the junior gold stocks and this final fall will hopefully cause the 'final clearance' sort of capitulation that is needed for a steady recovery to start to build.  

One of the risks is that some of the better quality juniors will be the subject of opportunistic takeover bids and shareholders won't get to realise the full potential of the assets.


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> Basically it's my take on EW... showing that we may be in an intermediate W3 of a larger W5... so expect.. and as happened... a sharp impulsive drop...
> 
> Cheers
> .........Kauri
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nice one.. maybe the 730.4 peak of May 06 at 0.38 will have a different role to play here (or just go up in smoke like every other major support so far!)
> cheers
> 
> Gold 1999-2008
Click to expand...


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> Kauri said:
> 
> 
> 
> Nice one.. maybe the 730.4 peak of May 06 at 0.38 will have a different role to play here (or just go up in smoke like every other major support so far!)
> cheers
> 
> Gold 1999-2008
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The retracement of 06 in percentage terms look to be about where we are now on this latest drop.   A fall from here would be a real cleanout but that head and shoulders potential looks very real now.
> 
> From the political front it is likely that downward pressure will continue.   The general confusion with currencies is giving a false sense of safety in that area so I expect, till this Presidential thingo has been determined we could have a much lower gold price yet for awhile.
> 
> Those who have not by now worked out the long term protection afforded by gold by now we just cant' help.   There are plenty of good explanations already on this thread.
Click to expand...


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> The retracement of 06 in percentage terms look to be about where we are now on this latest drop.   A fall from here would be a real cleanout but that head and shoulders potential looks very real now.
> 
> From the political front it is likely that downward pressure will continue.   The general confusion with currencies is giving a false sense of safety in that area so I expect, till this Presidential thingo has been determined we could have a much lower gold price yet for awhile.
> 
> Those who have not by now worked out the long term protection afforded by gold by now we just cant' help.   There are plenty of good explanations already on this thread.




This whole US dollar rally (aside from being a needed technical retracement) seems to be based on the market's belief that Bernanke will raise rates quite sharply.  Is it just me, or is that just a bit unrealistic?  We are not even half way through this credit crisis, major institutions like Lehman are under threat, US unemployment is skyrocketing, and the Fed will _raise_ rates?   

Taking a look at the USD COT, and the last few weeks tell a tale of the least competent market participants bashing each other out of the way to lay on USD longs. 

I'm not adding a gold long yet, because the bid remains so weak and I want to see what happens at 730.  I guess I'm looking for the next bottom in gold and oil to be Fed driven, as the delusion of a rate raise evaporates!


----------



## barrett

Explod you mentioned head and shoulders.. 
..an update on that formation in the HUI.. the first chart attached was made yesterday when the HUI was 267.. overnight it closed at its H&S target of 260 (derived from the two equidistant blue vertical lines).  Admittedly reversals do not happen all that often at exact H&S targets, but... the 260 level is also potential support from a much earlier era!  (see second HUI chart - a bit out of date, but it shows the potential support at around 260, where we now are).  Just one to watch.


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> This whole US dollar rally (aside from being a needed technical retracement) seems to be based on the market's belief that Bernanke will raise rates quite sharply. Is it just me, or is that just a bit unrealistic? We are not even half way through this credit crisis, major institutions like Lehman are under threat, US unemployment is skyrocketing, *and the Fed will raise rates*?
> 
> Taking a look at the USD COT, and the last few weeks tell a tale of the least competent market participants bashing each other out of the way to lay on USD longs.
> 
> I'm not adding a gold long yet, because the bid remains so weak and I want to see what happens at 730. I guess I'm looking for the next bottom in gold and oil to be Fed driven, as the delusion of a rate raise evaporates!




My bet is actually on 1.75%...   soon the good ole US of A will no longer be able to pretend it is not in recession by bailing out whoever stumbles... and the consumer will soon be consuming even less than what they are consuming presently.. and as the US is a consumer driven economy... however if Aaarple bring out a must have bit of new useless technology..I guess the must have consumer will plunge into even deeper C/C defaults and ...  etc...  thanks Joe for encouraging my potteen fueled ramblings  
Cheers
,.88........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> My bet is actually on 1.75%...   soon the good ole US of A will no longer be able to pretend it is not in recession by bailing out whoever stumbles... and the consumer will soon be consuming even less than what they are consuming presently.. and as the US is a consumer driven economy... however if Aaarple bring out a must have bit of new useless technology..I guess the must have consumer will plunge into even deeper C/C defaults and ...  etc...  thanks Joe for encouraging my potteen fueled ramblings
> Cheers
> ,.88........Kauri




Ah but the US _isn't_ in recession.... didn't you see the latest figures from the ministry of truth? 

Some buyers are coming into gold, the Euro and Oil, perhaps not in the numbers needed.. whereabouts are we potentially in the counting of things, 4 of 5 underway perhaps, a sharp one?


----------



## Kauri

barrett said:


> Ah but the US _isn't_ in recession.... didn't you see the latest figures from the ministry of truth?
> 
> Some buyers are coming into gold, the Euro and Oil, perhaps not in the numbers needed.. whereabouts are we potentially in the counting of things, 4 of 5 underway perhaps, a sharp one?





 on the verge of another knee jerk free-world, free-economy, free-fall reaction... after all it is all but the weekend... the best time for well considered, rational, panic...


   if this is the seventh in14 months... c'mon Tolouse L..   tanks Joe   
Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## barrett

An economic calendar for all those useful government statistics..
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Tomorrow.. US retail sales.. a bullish revenue bonanza beyond the most clueless analyst's wildest dreams:
Next Tues.. US CPI announcement (probably on the low side?) and.. Fed rate announcement! 
Potentially a turning point for gold.. amid the lunacy?

As counterpoint to the bullish possibilities, I have to note the horrible breakdown through gold's 300DMA... yesterday's breakdown through that supporting trendline.... and this.. ouch!

AUDUSD 1999-2008


----------



## barrett

And finally... a call of sanity in the economic wilderness?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750
"When the government can no longer pass the United States' "immense debt" on to taxpayers, it will turn to the holders of U.S. dollars".


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well an article that tells it the way it is.
Gold the safe haven yet is dropping away but hopefully the FED will do something about that on Tuesday !
Strong demand, lower production, higher production costs, US$ a wreck, significant gold finds rare is there a beter time to be in gold ?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I think a virtual line in the sand has been drawn perhaps, with several indicators either hitting new lows or highs, even oversold and overbought, again.

The DX pops it's head over the 80 parapet after what can only be described as a suspiciously breathtaking rebound, and gold succombs to the lower range ie oversold of it's long term fundamental 'fair value' ie between $750-$800.

For it is all perfectly coordinated for the Feds innner circle and the wider global central bank community, and when the time is right the 'Friends of the Fed' will be allowed to exit their $US holdings at a far better price, but at the expense of the one shining light for the US economy - exports. The hope that the rising DX will make imports cheaper to entice consumers to one final morsal of binge consumption? 

Just as gold equities have telegraphed the retreat long before gold tanked, I would be looking to a change of sentiment to bullish now, and I have been buying some 'bargains' myself this week. Several gold stocks are now priced for as little as their cash backing ie nothing for production or exploration potential. Is this the 'blood in the streets' time for gold equities?

I will stick my neck out to provisionally call it a bottom, but the 2 months to the US election still may provide 'risk' from official efforts to neutralise the truth with window dressing (an amazing rally in the last half hr for the Dow no less!). The emporor is naked after all, and it's approaching winter .


----------



## Bolivia

I am not a techi so cannot really comment on where, technically gold could get to, but I have some idea about economics and fundementals.

A Few points to consider:

1. The USA has at present the highest ever Public debt as a % of GDP.

2. The Current account deficit is at or near all time high records.

3. With the whole commodity complex having been savaged over the last few months, inflationary pressures are sure to drop (in the short term).

4. As a result of these drops in commodity prices the US$ has staged a remarkable rally, also reducing short term inflation pressures.

The result of these changes over the last few months has presented some really conflicting scenarios.

It is now incredibly unlikely that the Fed is going to need to raise rates to deal with inflation in the near term. In fact with unemployment rising, GDP falling, consumer demand on the precipice of collapsing, housing just a basket case, the likelyood of them raising is now very small. In fact rates are now able to be lowered back to 1% or less because a) They have to and b) they are able to.

The end result of all this is that the US$ has absolutely no chance of sustaining its rally and in fact I see the US$ having a severe reversal. With the US$ going back down THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL REBOUND SHARPLY. Why the US$ has rallied so much just doesn't make sense (to me).

About 20-25 years ago Greenspan was absolutely adament that the health of any countries currency was the state of it's Current account and the Gov debt. The USA's could not be any worse and I just cannot see how the currency can hold up.

One final point - In the long run, with the USA having had such a relaxed Monetary policy for such a long time, Inflation is bound to rear a very ugly head. This can only be positive for gold in the long run. 

Note: I have not included any discussion about gold supply and mines etc. That is a whole other story.


----------



## explod

Bolivia said:


> I am not a techi so cannot really comment on where, technically gold could get to, but I have some idea about economics and fundementals.
> 
> The end result of all this is that the US$ has absolutely no chance of sustaining its rally and in fact I see the US$ having a severe reversal. With the US$ going back down THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL REBOUND SHARPLY. Why the US$ has rallied so much just doesn't make sense (to me).





I am not much of a techi nor economist.   I have however followed the sociological (sentiment) for a number of years.   INVESTMENT IS SENTIMENT.  Yes the rally in the dollar is all about getting some of the right people off the hook but is first political for the sheeple.

In part it was engineered off the downturns across the UK, then Europe and now asia.  The perception and focus that "hey, we in the US are now ok, the rest of them have the problem"


----------



## bean

POG has closed down 9 days straight on Comex
= record
What goes down must go UP?
Well in Golds case anyway

Some rocket fuel to help IKE upgraded
And
Another one bites the dust 
http://http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/lehman.html

Filling up yesterday and today
I Have a Full tank


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Whiskers said:
> 
> 
> 
> That's... interesting, mate... but what's it all mean?
> 
> What are the heavy lines? Are they software generated?
> 
> 
> Basically it's my take on EW... showing that we may be in an intermediate W3 of a larger W5... so expect.. and as happened... a sharp impulsive drop...
> 
> Cheers
> .........Kauri
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's what I was afraid you meant.
> 
> I got worried as soon as it broke to a new low, had a target of 729. If it broke that and headed for 629, I would have made a right royal mess of my chart, but I'm not sure yet.
> 
> 
> 
> wayneL said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's in a consolidation zone between 800 and 250 :
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Nah, gotta give it a bit more upside... 1100 and 250.
> 
> But seriously though, I'm thinking as I mentioned earlier, everytime oil and the USD index move gold gets utthedoor: for awhile. But Oil and the USD are due to correct back anytime so that should send gold back toward 800 again pretty quick.
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...


----------



## Whiskers

cuttlefish said:


> The other positive fundamental factor is the reducing mine supply world wide, combined with a growing affluent population with a cultural attachment to gold.
> 
> There is very clear value in some of the junior gold stocks and this final fall will hopefully cause the 'final clearance' sort of capitulation that is needed for a steady recovery to start to build.
> 
> One of the risks is that some of the better quality juniors will be the subject of opportunistic takeover bids and shareholders won't get to realise the full potential of the assets.




I totally agree there and as someone else mentioned earlier, some are even virtually priced at their cash account. 

I've certainly earmarked a few that could reward handsomely in the medium to longer term.


----------



## explod

Barricun 4 bean but,

the Tanks are broke, 

dont' know it yet

I got gold and wont get wet


----------



## refined silver

There's been a massive financial earthquake deep in the bowels of the system. Everyone was waiting for a huge gold tsunami to come crashing ashore. 

Instead, the tide suddenly started to go out. Then it kept going out and out (while the USD went up and up and up) further than anyone expected, creating a huge spectacle. Many people went down on the beach to look at this strange phenomena.

Maybe they should have been running for the hills........


----------



## bean

bean said:


> POG has closed down 9 days straight on Comex
> = record
> What goes down must go UP?
> Well in Golds case anyway
> 
> Some rocket fuel to help IKE upgraded
> And
> Another one bites the dust
> http://http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/lehman.html
> 
> Filling up yesterday and today
> I Have a Full tank




POG up $16
But better still US GOLD index HUI +10%
XAU + 10%
Start of Wave 3 has commenced?

Waited a long time for this!!!!


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> POG up $16
> But better still US GOLD index HUI +10%
> XAU + 10%
> Start of Wave 3 has commenced?
> 
> Waited a long time for this!!!!



Yes, you have.

Calling a bottom?


----------



## Kauri

bean said:


> POG up $16
> But better still US GOLD index HUI +10%
> XAU + 10%
> Start of Wave 3 has commenced?
> 
> Waited a long time for this!!!!




 I don't get the best results subdividing waves into smaller fractals... butt... if this was the 3rd (blue line),  of the 5th (white line), it pulled up just short of the typical 162%, before tracing into a 4th???  as for bottom picking, I'm not piling into that yet...  one days push up doesn't provide relief.. on its own..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> I don't get the best results subdividing waves into smaller fractals... butt... if this was the 3rd (blue line),  of the 5th (white line), it pulled up just short of the typical 162%, before tracing into a 4th???  as for bottom picking, I'm not piling into that yet...  one days push up doesn't provide relief.. on its own..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




I sit between yourself and Bean.  The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days.   I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point.   Those gold bugs just seem to smell it.   The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.

But my copy would not post


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> I sit between yourself and Bean.  The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days.   I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point.   Those gold bugs just seem to smell it.   The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.
> 
> But my copy would not post



Yes, but there was a significant breakout as well, that I was about to put the house on, that failed terribly.

That was when I friend ....?? went to the mint....

Others have done the same. 

Not banking on ANYTHING, and being willing to sell, or buy, if your analysis is going pear shaped by the charts, might be a thought...

Must go, getting kicked out of this internet cafe.

caio!


----------



## bean

A few US Gold Index have now filled gaps that they made in December 2005.
I always thought that for them to be able to fill the gaps POG would be about US 550-630.  However it appears that needs not be the case.  The various US Gold Index have made a significant bottom.  POG will follow higher quickly.  The US $ will now more than likely drop 50%.  Of course when the GM market starts its next wave down Goldies may follow to a degree but should not take out this bottom otherwise (POG may be ready to start a Bear). 

How confident am I

Never purchased options before until a week or so ago had to be 99.99% correct of the direction, price and time
So bought Puts sold them wednesday. 
The out of money call options on NCM, LGL, OZL I purchase on thursday and friday should be well in the money over the next few days.  And I am not selling quickly. 
The stocks led POG down now they will lead it up
But POG may have huge daily moves but mainly up.
The train has left the station!!!
(but remember we may have to have a few stops along the way for the GM markets. And to Pick up survivors,  late comers and new believers )


----------



## bean

FED meets tuesday.  I am hearing rumors surprise 50 point rate cut before then!!!
Helicopters on the ready.

http://http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080913/lehman_meeting.html


----------



## noirua

Has gold really gone down much in Aussie$ terms.  So the price will appear weak in US$ prices.  Gold mines are over depressed, in Australia, as mining costs should not increase much going forward with the oil price tanking.


----------



## CanOz

noirua said:


> oil price tanking.






This (oil's tanking) is a retracement at best. The medium term demand for oil may have taken some instituational money out of the market but oil will not go below 80 USD per barrel. I would be surprised to see it go much under 100.

Once the USD finished its little rally maybe gold will resume its bull. 

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> I don't get the best results subdividing waves into smaller fractals... butt... if this was the 3rd (blue line),  of the 5th (white line), it pulled up just short of the typical 162%, before tracing into a 4th???  as for bottom picking, I'm not piling into that yet...  one days push up doesn't provide relief.. on its own..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Well kauri, ya got me to step back and have another look at the big picture for my weekend homework. 

Still not set in concrete, but if it goes to sub 729 for any length of time... or even hangs down around these numbers for any length of time, my plan will need revamping.

However, I've noticed interestingly, that this drop has stopped short of the (well, at east my) wave (3). That bodes well for a more impulsive, greater uptrend in the longer term. 

In the short term though, I'm still going with an _Expanded Flat _for wave 1 of an impulse up.

An interesting note that I find about _Expanded Flats _is that they "virtually always precede or follow extensions". On that point my initial target for C and *2* was 801 but with the caution that C could extend, which I reckon it did.

Just keeping an open mind though, another possibility is that my (a), (b) and (c) maybe (1), (2) and (3) with this Expanded Flat as (4) opening up that bludy 250 or somethin that those jokers were foolin with earlier. 

But, I'm still pretty comfortable with my *2* and heading for 1 of (5) of *3* atm.


----------



## noirua

CanOz said:


> This (oil's tanking) is a retracement at best. The medium term demand for oil may have taken some instituational money out of the market but oil will not go below 80 USD per barrel. I would be surprised to see it go much under 100.
> Once the USD finished its little rally maybe gold will resume its bull.
> Cheers,
> CanOz




Exchange rates are the major key here. Reduced oil prices will cut mining costs.  A depreciating Aussie$ will help keep up the returns on Aussie gold sales.


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> I sit between yourself and Bean.  The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days.   I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point.   Those gold bugs just seem to smell it.   The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.
> 
> But my copy would not post




The premium stocks in the sector can also be useful indicators, seeing as they tend to be last to turn down and the first to turn up.

The world's best large cap gold and silver company (on asset quality&growth, management&technical team, production & cash cost growth, diversification, political risk, paper etc)?  Arguably perennial market favourite Agnico Eagle (AEM:NYSE).  AEM was the last to go down in the recent selloff, along with Ian Telfer's Goldcorp (GG:NYSE), another top shelf large cap gold. 

Noticed on Friday AEM had a *17%* one day rise on no news, and on near-record volume.  As Kauri said, one day does not make a reversal, not from a selldown of this size.. anyway, just wanted to note the strength of this astonishing one-day move in AEM.  Bear rallies can be sharp but it would be unusual for them to have such huge volume. Also noticed the RSI non-confirmation of AEM's new low made last week.

What other sorts of things will people here be looking out for to confirm a reversal in gold?
Cheers


----------



## noirua

Perhaps gold bugs should consider a situation with a long bull market in the US$.  That trend may not be consistent  and short periods of bearish behaviour, perhaps covering several months, may mislead many an investor.
All previous bull and bear runs have been overdone. We may see the Aussie$ down to AU$1.30 - AU$1.40 to the greenback in 2008 and AU$1.50 - AU$1.60 in 2009.  That's if previous runs come to pass, once again.


----------



## CanOz

noirua said:


> Perhaps gold bugs should consider a situation with a long bull market in the US$.  That trend may not be consistent  and short periods of bearish behaviour, perhaps covering several months, may mislead many an investor.
> All previous bull and bear runs have been overdone. We may see the Aussie$ down to AU$1.30 - AU$1.40 to the greenback in 2008 and AU$1.50 - AU$1.60 in 2009.  That's if previous runs come to pass, once again.




The USD is not fundamentally capable of a bull market let alone a sustained rally. Once the interest rate differentials and the facts of the US economy finally dawn on the dollar bulls they will be dropping the buck like bad habit. The US Government is insolvent and getting buried under an even bigger pile of debt than anyone could ever have imagined.

The rally may last another month or so, but its day will come again soon. The Aussie and Canadian Dollars are backed with solid fiscal management and stronger economies. 

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## explod

explod said:


> I sit between yourself and Bean.  The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days.   I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point.   Those gold bugs just seem to smell it.   The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.
> 
> But my copy would not post




And I think we are going to have it.   Gold up almost $US30 since this time last Friday, 20 of that this morning.   The HUI will lead the way and last weeks Weekly chart will complete the reversal.   A look back for the last 5 years indicates that it is the HUI reversal as in progress now that has been the best indicator of the next upleg.     Most pundits expect plus $US1200 before years end.    We will see.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Is this the precipice? All things going to mush in a big way today over the Lemon Bros no brainer - Futures/markets down, gold up.


----------



## CanOz

I think the USD rally has just ended. Technicals and fundementals are now alighned quite well at this point. Now for a good entry point.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## refined silver

Gold's two recent tops where it was hammered were $1030 on the day of the Bear Sterns rescue, and $840ish at the time of the Fannie and Freddie rescue. 

In both cases, the Wall St and media spin was everything is ok now, the worst is over, the Fed has provided liquidity and its all good now.

This weekend, we've got Lehman Bros, the 4th biggest US investment bank about to or already failed. Merryl Lynch is being bought out by BoA (where will they get the $40b????), AIG the world's biggest insurance co is asking for a $40b loan or saying they will be dead in 48hrs. http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/aig-seeks-fed-aid-to-survive/index.html?hp
The US Fed are saying we'll now take basically anything as collateral. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1221454799.php


Were the premises under which gold was hammered right or wrong? Looks like they were so wrong it wasn't funny, and the spin was pure lies and BS.

If Lehman fails it triggers CDSs wherever it is a counterparty. If AIG goes, or is downgraded they are the major underwriter of CDSs and other OTC derivatives. Ready for a $60 trillion unwind? Got gold or silver?


----------



## barrett

refined silver said:


> Gold's two recent tops where it was hammered were $1030 on the day of the Bear Sterns rescue, and $840ish at the time of the Fannie and Freddie rescue.
> 
> In both cases, the Wall St and media spin was everything is ok now, the worst is over, the Fed has provided liquidity and its all good now.
> 
> This weekend, we've got Lehman Bros, the 4th biggest US investment bank about to or already failed. Merryl Lynch is being bought out by BoA (where will they get the $40b????), AIG the world's biggest insurance co is asking for a $40b loan or saying they will be dead in 48hrs. http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/aig-seeks-fed-aid-to-survive/index.html?hp
> The US Fed are saying we'll now take basically anything as collateral. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1221454799.php
> 
> 
> Were the premises under which gold was hammered right or wrong? Looks like they were so wrong it wasn't funny, and the spin was pure lies and BS.
> 
> If Lehman fails it triggers CDSs wherever it is a counterparty. If AIG goes, or is downgraded they are the major underwriter of CDSs and other OTC derivatives. Ready for a $60 trillion unwind? Got gold or silver?




Well I agree with you as usual..   and then there is this chart, completely out of line with the fundamentals, a bit like the past few months of market action.
Personally I'd like to see how this technical situation resolves, and convincing bottoms in gold and oil before adding.. wouldn't want to discourage anyone else from buying though.

EURUSD daily 2005-2008 - made a few hours ago.. down a couple of percent since then on very high volume..


----------



## BentRod

Zoom out on your chart and start the TL from 2002.


----------



## refined silver

The idiot Central Bankers who caused all this mess in the first place by 1% rates which encouraged the housing bubble and refusing to regulate the OTC derivative market now over a quadrillion dollars (1,000 trillion), think by jamming the USD from when London opens, will show that all is well!

The Fed meets Tuesday, if they cut rates, here is what happened after previous rate cuts. (This is from another site.)



> WHAT THE FED DID on August 17, 2007
> 
> For immediate release
> To promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets, the Federal Reserve Board approved temporary changes to its primary credit discount window facility. The Board approved a 50 basis point reduction in the primary credit rate to 5-3/4 percent, to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate to 50 basis points.
> 
> ----------------------Fast Forward
> 
> So what was the immediate result of the Fed cut on August 17, 2007? Here it is in a nut shell (which is a preview of what will occur subsequent to the Fed's 75 basis points cut on January 22, 2008):
> 
> - QQQQ soared 22% in the next 10 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> - DOW rose 13% in the next 8 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> - Gold sky-rocketed 31% in 11 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> - Silver went ballistic 48% in next 11 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$silver&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> - HUI went parabolic 63% in next 10 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$hui&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> - GDX went V-E-R-T-I-C-A-L 66% in next 11 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gdx&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> 
> Indeed Dr Bernanke met the challenge head on...stopping the bears in their tracks.
> 
> P.S.
> Results of the Canadian PM index subsequent to the August2007 rate cut was similar. The XGD soared 38% in the next 10 weeks'
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xgd.to&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> I believe current LOW prices of select gold and silver stocks are godsends for those with liquidity and the well reasoned conviction the secular gold and silver bull markets are alive and well.
> 
> _______________________
> 
> The FOMC cut again 50 basis points (Fed Funds and the Discount Window) on January 30, 2008. How did this dramatic cut affect the markets short-term?
> 
> 
> - DOW stabilized for the next 12 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> 
> Gold roared up 21% to an all-time record high ($1025) in 8 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> Silver went ballistic 43% in next 8 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$silver&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> HUI rose 24% in next 10 weeks
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$hui&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> 
> AND BERNANKE IS AGAIN UP TO BAT -- As there is another FOMC meeting Tuesday (Sept 16, 2008). Based upon the extreme precarious situation of the US Financial (Lehman and others teetering on the brink of disaster), I can foresee the Fed slashing rates by another 50 bps. Consequently, the impact on gold and silver and PM equities should be electric. It is reasonable to expect HUI to rise 30% to 40% and gold and silver to soar.
> 
> HOWEVER: there is also an outside chance of a draconian slash by the Fed:
> 
> Consider:
> 
> For some time the Fed has been periodically cutting rates with a view to resolve the real estate crisis, provide the financial lifeblood liquidity to floundering banks, and to stave off a looming DEPRESSION. But as we all know the “Fed cut medicine” was ALWAYS too little too late (a day late and a dollar short...if you will). Hopefully Dr Bernanke has learned a lesson (after so many failures), and will administer a much stronger doses this time …ie slash interest rates by 100 bps on Tuesday. In this event, the US dollar will plunge to retest multi-year low to 71 (basis US Dollar Index). This will fuel gold, silver and PM equities to launch toward recent all-time record highs of March 2008.
> 
> US$
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$usd&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48287022494
> 
> Tuesday, 16 September 2008 is Dr Bernanke’s moment of truth. He will either rise to the challenge, or be clawed to death by the Wall Street bears…as the US financial system disintegrates before his eyes.




I can see the USD tanking and gold going up, but even with a big rate cut, I can't the see the general mkts still being able to pretend all is well and rally.


----------



## barrett

BentRod said:


> Zoom out on your chart and start the TL from 2002.




OK just done it.. that's a different trendline providing support from below at 1.383 atm.
but I am using linear... you seeing something different on a log chart?


----------



## BentRod

I see a perfect bounce on that TL from 2002.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Throw away the charts, entering uncharted territory dictated by fear, greed and dare I say it, official intervention (in all markets) where necessary? 

A period of $50 daily swings in POG, lot's of money to be made (or lost) on the swings ie nice $20 spike down to $764 just then then bounce up again. DXY up/down 2 pts!

This is going to be a wild ride! Decoupling time?


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> Throw away the charts




Oh no... I was just starting to get the hang of those EW things.


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> Oh no... I was just starting to get the hang of those EW things.



You were?!?!?!?!?!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> You were?!?!?!?!?!




LOL Wayne - 10/10 for Whiskers having a go eh


----------



## barrett

BentRod said:


> I see a perfect bounce on that TL from 2002.




Okay agreed.. but the breakdown below the 3yr trendline was strong, while the buying off the 6yr was pretty weak so far.  
The 6yr line could still hold, I bloody hope so!


----------



## BentRod

> The 6yr line could still hold, I bloody hope so!




I don't


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> You were?!?!?!?!?!



 grrr


Uncle Festivus said:


> LOL Wayne - 10/10 for Whiskers having a go eh




Thanks unc... but that wasn't a back-handed pat on the back though, was it! :



barrett said:


> The 6yr line could still hold, I bloody hope so!




I can't see it holding. Part of the reason I think gold is a bit volatile but should generally hold around the low 800's in the medium term. 



BentRod said:


> I don't




Ok happy, what do you know that we dont?


----------



## BentRod

> Ok happy, what do you know that we dont?




Bugger all.

Barrett mentioned that he hopes Fiber holds above that TL, I hope it doesn't.


----------



## barrett

Whiskers said:


> I can't see it holding. Part of the reason I think gold is a bit volatile but should generally hold around the low 800's in the medium term.



We were talking about EURUSD cross.  A break below 6yr trendline would almost certainly bring gold down another level.  But would seem kind of weird from a fundamental/USDCOT perspective..

While on that topic was just glancing at gold COT.. commercials have covered 2/3 of their net short position since July, and interestingly the small players' net position is the lowest in 5yrs.. nice!


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Throw away the charts, entering uncharted territory dictated by fear, greed and dare I say it, official intervention (in all markets) where necessary?
> 
> A period of $50 daily swings in POG, lot's of money to be made (or lost) on the swings ie nice $20 spike down to $764 just then then bounce up again. DXY up/down 2 pts!
> 
> This is going to be a wild ride! *Decoupling time*?




Decoupling.... what/who is decoupling now.... not the old "_the world economy from the US economy " chestnut, _that decoupling theory actually derailed...  so who is decoupling from who... now  ???
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

barrett said:


> We were talking about EURUSD cross.




Yeah, I know... so was I. 

I'm thinking the US economy/markets is probably going to improve a little before it gets worse, while the EU lags a bit behind. If the USD index is to go higher, as I' suspect, because of the weighting of the euro the EUR/USD has to break below.



> A break below 6yr trendline would almost certainly bring gold down another level.




I know it sounds a bit contradictory, but if we get this (above) situation, then euro buying of gold and longer term US holders may help support the price until a lack of new supply starts to bite.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> :
> I can't see it holding. Part of the reason I think gold is a bit volatile but should generally hold around the low 800's in the medium term.




Why do you think gold will hold around these levels.

The US dollar has been rising against weakeness elsewhere, particularly caused by the Euro.   The Euro has a problem in that it is made up of many economies that are all very differrent.  It is more of a controlled instrument than a currency with a value that can be properly measured.  

The recent US dollar strength has not changed any of the underlying financial problems which are being more clearly realised.   Late last week Wall Street were starting to talk about "flights to safety"  (wow) they were referring to the US dollar but they recognise what's on.   The only flight to safety in the shorter term will be gold, the fact that it is going up when Lehman is going down will not be lost on a lot of the sheeple.   And of course we have good old greed;  Everyone can smell a bargain.


----------



## refined silver

> refined silver said:
> 
> 
> 
> Merryl Lynch is being bought out by BoA (where will they get the $40b????),............. The US Fed are saying we'll now take basically anything as collateral. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1221454799.php
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like a big part of the reason Merryl was valued at $29/share for the takeover when they were trading at $17 before the weekends carnage is the second bit of news, that the Fed will now take equity as collateral!
> 
> Hence BoA put a silly valuation on Merryl, then get to exchange that amt for US Treasuries at the Fed!
Click to expand...


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> And of course we have good old greed;  Everyone can smell a bargain.




LOL its smelling like something else to me...........:flush:


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL its smelling like something else to me...........:flush:




Please do enlighten us further.   

Do you have some gold down there t/h., can I throw a line or is it too deep?


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Please do enlighten us further.




My point is that here we are standing on the edge of a complete and utter mess. I mean this is exactly what the Gold Bugs have been banging on about for years BUT...................


What is gold doing. Certainly not rewarding the gold bugs. its a dog.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> My point is that here we are standing on the edge of a complete and utter mess. I mean this is exactly what the Gold Bugs have been banging on about for years BUT...................
> 
> 
> What is gold doing. Certainly not rewarding the gold bugs. its a dog.





My gold bullion went up $47 per ounce australian last night

I dont get the drift?    Sure its due to currency fluctuations and all manner of other things, but better than having bank shares going down.  And this is no gloat, just simple investing from my corner and take on it all.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yeah, up 5% after down 30% good one . What's it gunna take to get to the $2000-$3000 target if it hasn't sparked interest with the current :fan . I mean really this is what the bugs have been waiting for is it not? They would have to be feeling a little disappointed that golds not tickling $1500 by now?


----------



## cuttlefish

AUD gold price has held up better than most equities this year so I can see where explod is coming from - I wish I'd gone for physical gold instead of holding onto a lot of my gold stocks.

The US has lost the plot completely now - I can't see the USD charade continuing for too much longer.   The Merrill thing seems completely nuts but it all seems pretty crazy and the printing machine is overheating big time with sparks flying out of it.   Short term gold price volatility for sure - possibly down further as it gets pushed around - but when the music stops  for the USD there's not a lot of gold chairs.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah, up 5% after down 30% good one . What's it gunna take to get to the $2000-$3000 target if it hasn't sparked interest with the current :fan . I mean really this is what the bugs have been waiting for is it not? They would have to be feeling a little disappointed that golds not tickling $1500 by now?




Have you actually bothered to read this thread or to study the historic long term fundamentals of gold.   I stick very much to this and one other thread, I rarely drop into others and spout off on something that I know little about.  I have made very good money, and continue to on trading gold stocks and accumulating physical since 2004.   I try to know as much as I can about one item, the one I think is the best in a particular time frame and stay with it.  I have been known to trade in and out of oil stocks but I think at times that is fairly straight forward also.

If you go back and check movements of gold against of the US fed and its dollar and so many other facets you may be surprised at what could be in store.  If the fed drop thier wholesale rate in the next days just whatch gold a few days later.    I will back gold to reach 1200 by the end of the year in this new climate.  Small changes in the gold price have exponential effects on the bottom line of gold producers like LGL and NCM.   Do some research and check it out Pal.  And you will be welcome to share in the good news amidst the bad.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh god!! 

Gold bugs are always making money aren't they?? 

When will one say what Cuttlefish freely does. That the obvious truth, Golds/silver has been a dog for some time and as the **** hits the fan, as per the bugs prediction, golds gone backwards.

And yes dude I know a bit about the movements in the gold market. Just because I disagree with your emotional commitment or point out the painful to you that don't mean I don't know where gold has been and where its currently sitting. And that is at a disappointing level considering its was going to be the one "safe" trade in all this mess.


----------



## cuttlefish

Physical gold hasn't been a dog though.  If an Australian based investor moved from equities to gold mid 07 they would be well ahead now. Even from Jan 08 a swap out of gold equities to physical gold would have had an investor well ahead of equities and not really down much compared to the market.

I expected gold stocks to come down with the market but also thought they would decouple to some extent and hold up better than the overall market given the strenght of the gold price - that hasn't proven to be the case and in hindsight I wish I'd moved more to cash and more to physical.  (I did move some to cash and some into oil and coal for periods of time as well).  Because wealth protection was a goal  and systemic risk also present I wasn't keen on holding too much cash (and property wasn't a logical candidate either) so really it was gold equities or physical gold.

I'm still comfortable though that a lot of the gold equities are representing value and that the fundamentals for gold still point to good rises down the track.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh god!!
> 
> Gold bugs are always making money aren't they??
> 
> When will one say what Cuttlefish freely does. That the obvious truth, Golds/silver has been a dog for some time and as the **** hits the fan, as per the bugs prediction, golds gone backwards.
> 
> And yes dude I know a bit about the movements in the gold market. Just because I disagree with your emotional commitment or point out the painful to you that don't mean I don't know where gold has been and where its currently sitting. And that is at a disappointing level considering its was going to be the one "safe" trade in all this mess.




As I have allude to in a previous post, a line has been drawn, so it's not what has transpired, but what is to come which will be the true test for gold advocates - there is no blood in the streets yet. If indeed the global financial system does resolve this mess through the interventionist measures then gold will be a relic, like the gold standard.

While the world decides, I remain in cash, gold and food production. The gold secular trend has not been broken? It has to decouple to be a currency in it's own right yet, not a commodity, and be free of intervention in it's counter trade currency ie the $USD.

When even cash is under threat, the alternatives (to gold) are dwindling by the day. What are the alternatives?


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> My point is that here we are standing on the edge of a complete and utter mess. I mean this is exactly what the Gold Bugs have been banging on about for years BUT...................
> 
> What is gold doing. Certainly not rewarding the gold bugs. its a dog.




Hi TH,

If the bugs were right about the mess we're in now, and like you say, we're really just on the edge of it, we haven't seen it all yet by a long shot, if they've been right so far, when many others were optimists and were wrong, what makes you think they won't be right in the end?

When I just got on board very early 02, (gold was $270 when I entered) my thoughts on gold (and silver), were that it was the going to enter a similar cycle to the 70s (for some similar and some diff reasons) and possibly with a different ending also but thats a long story. Based on this ,what did I expect? 

1. A multiyear bull at least 10 years, and most likely 15/16 in duration.

2. A lot of volatility, with gold capable of losing up to 50% (it dropped from $200 to $100 in the 70s after being up from $35.) and going sidewards or down for up to 2 years at a time (as in 74-76). 

3. Take out the old high of $800, then $1500, then later another advance into mid to high 4 figures.

4. To ride a decadal cycle, from bottom to top, eg 70s commods/gold/oil, 80s Japan, stocks, 90s techs etc, can make someone very wealthy. Its not easy, very few people do it. I'd need to be prepared for gut wrenching drops without getting shaken out. It meant zero margin. I trade a portion but keep a large core position fully invested.  

Yes gold and gold shares are way down now from highs, so are my holdings, but I am up multiple times from my entry point in 02, and see now as like just before the rise in 77-78.

Its not a 5min trading proposition. Its very different from your approach, but if it goes right, it'll be very rewarding, and though this correction is much steeper than I expected, its still consistent with what I expected in 02.

Don't know if this helps you understand some peoples position a bit better??


----------



## barrett

Looks like oil found at least short term support from the downtrend channel at 91.5...

QM daily


----------



## Kauri

Gold... or high country oysters.. who cares...  if it trends... and sets up... trade it...  after all... does a chart of gold look any different to a chart of high country oysters???

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> Why do you think gold will hold around these levels.
> 
> The US dollar has been rising against weakeness elsewhere, particularly caused by the Euro.   The Euro has a problem in that it is made up of many economies that are all very differrent.  It is more of a controlled instrument than a currency with a value that can be properly measured.
> 
> The recent US dollar strength has not changed any of the underlying financial problems which are being more clearly realised.   Late last week Wall Street were starting to talk about "flights to safety"  (wow) they were referring to the US dollar but they recognise what's on.   The only flight to safety in the shorter term will be gold, the fact that it is going up when Lehman is going down will not be lost on a lot of the sheeple.   And of course we have good old greed;  Everyone can smell a bargain.




Basically because apart from all the other issues facing the economy and markets, there is a bit of a cash crisis. 

It seems to me that consumers and corporations alike are a bit short of spare/surplus cash... and even 'necessary' available cash for normal daily operations, which may help to explain the relatively low demand for commodities including gold and the current scurring around in the currencies seems to reflect people trying to maintain the best value they can in cash in the short term.

While gold bullion may still a good store of wealth... people and corporations need cash for their day to day needs. Until those day to day requirements for cash stabalises and relaxes, there will be less available cash to 'invest' in longer term holdings.

Of course when the cash crisis settles and business gets back to relative normality I would expect to see demand considerable outstrip supply.


----------



## Kauri

a bit high for a fractaling 4th of a 5th butt who nose...

Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> a bit high for a fractaling 4th of a 5th butt who nose...
> 
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




If it holds above the 2006 high of 730, I think there is gonna be some really good profits to be had longer term in selected gold stocks at current prices.

Another point that nobody has been talking about lately is central bank activity.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> If it holds above the 2006 high of 730, I think there is gonna be some really good profits to be had longer term in selected gold stocks at current prices.
> 
> Another point that nobody has been talking about lately is central bank activity.




Not only central banks, the whole industry hates gold:-



> Sep 16 2008 10:57AM
> 
> Why Wall Street Hates Gold and Silver??
> 
> (Excerpted from Chapter 12 of How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years in the 21st Century.)
> 
> Wall Street ignored gold and silver during most of the 1970’s hyper-profitable bull market. They were either outright hostile, or acted as though the metals didn’t even exist. I got no respect, even though the first edition of my book sold 2.6-million copies and was near or at the top of The New York Times best-seller list in both hard and soft cover for two years, and I was all over the media; Wall street Week, Oprah twice, Regis and Kathy Lee three times, etc, etc. They were usually hostile also. Wall Street paid little attention to gold until it reached about $650, far too late for them to have much of a chance for their clients to make money.
> 
> Why the hostility? Partly because they believed their own rhetoric! Historically, because rising gold always means falling stocks or a troubled world, and they made most of their commissions in the stock market, they had to remain bullish on stocks, and bearish on gold. Their bullish stock-market recommendation was necessary because investors wouldn’t buy stocks if their advisors were dubious about the market’s future. They sneered at the inflation fears of us gold and silver fans, and derisively called gold investors “gold bugs.” Most of the young whippersnappers who now control Wall Street were in diapers 25 to 30 years ago during the last gold bull market so they haven’t experienced rising gold and inflation. Consequently, another gold bull market is inconceivable to them.
> 
> Studying Psycho-ceramics
> 
> One of the funniest things that ever happened to me illustrates the skepticism of mainstream media types regarding gold and silver. In 1978 I was on a national promotion tour for the first edition of my book when I found myself in Detroit, rushing to a TV station for a scheduled interview on a big morning show. I barely got there in time when the host turned to the camera and said, “Today we’re going to study psycho-ceramics, and with us today is a crackpot from California.” And the interview went downhill from there; with his biggest argument being that silver was an impractical investment for most people, unless you were very rich.
> 
> One year later I found myself in the same studio, same host, promoting the mass paperback of my book. But this time, when the light went on, he said, “Today we have with us one of America’s most brilliant financial advisors,” and the interview was terrific from then.
> 
> After the show, I reminded him of what he had said before, and asked him what had changed his mind. He very sheepishly said, “I read your book and bought silver from a local coin dealer, and tripled my money since you were here last.” So the media is not always infallible, even though they are usually wrong.




The full article is worth a read, by Howard Ruff on Kitco


----------



## refined silver

After the Fed tried to play tough with Lehman, they caved in today moneying up $90b for AIG. WaMu and a few others will be next.

Unnoticed amongst the drama was the TIC report which came out yesterday.

It was -$74b!!!!!

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1138.htm


> Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for July
> 
> Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for July 2008 are released today and posted on the U.S. Treasury website (www.treas.gov/tic). The next release, which will report on data for August, is scheduled for October 16, 2008.
> 
> Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $6.1 billion.
> 
> Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were negative $25.6 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were negative $20.7 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were negative $4.9 billion.
> U.S. residents sold a net $31.7 billion of long-term foreign securities.
> Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been negative $8.2 billion.
> 
> Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities decreased $8.4 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $4.4 billion.
> 
> Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents declined $58.1 billion.
> 
> Monthly net TIC flows were negative $74.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $92.9 billion, and net foreign official flows were $18.2 billion.




The TIC is supposed to balance the Current Account. Hence if you run a $64b curent account deficit, you need a +$60b TIC to balance, which somehow the US has managed to keep doing, by having foreigners keep buying equities, bonds, even real estate in the US. 

Instead of not getting $60b inflows, they got $74b outflows!! Check out the far right column in the link. 

Thats not good news for the USD!


----------



## Ageo

Just curious how many people here trade gold physical?

I have found the physical market to be in a real good position as the US Spot is at the lower price end over the last 12months and the AUD Spot is still easily sitting comfortably between the 900-1000 range (thanks to our weakening dollar). 

Even when the US price tanks the AUD holds up nicely or takes a softer fall.

If you trade physical you would know what im talking about.


----------



## cuttlefish

Kauri said:


> Gold... or high country oysters.. who cares...  if it trends... and sets up... trade it...  after all... does a chart of gold look any different to a chart of high country oysters???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Good point - though high country oysters tend to get a bit whiffy after sitting in a bank vault for a week or two.


----------



## cuttlefish

A lot of nationalised industries in the free world.   Capitalism communist style?

There is no paddle and the creek is long.

Gold isn't going to go up.   Gold is just going to 'be' while the USD dissappears.   

Interesting times indeed.  

Insurance anyone?  There's a better version on offer than AIG's.


----------



## cuttlefish

_"A disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance," the Fed said in a statement._

Got to love the carefully understated way they effectively say "If we don't do this everything's gonna be f***d".


----------



## Temjin

Ageo said:


> Just curious how many people here trade gold physical?
> 
> I have found the physical market to be in a real good position as the US Spot is at the lower price end over the last 12months and the AUD Spot is still easily sitting comfortably between the 900-1000 range (thanks to our weakening dollar).
> 
> Even when the US price tanks the AUD holds up nicely or takes a softer fall.
> 
> If you trade physical you would know what im talking about.




The problem is that physical gold are priced in USD, and it usually only rises when the USD Index is down. Fairly negative correlation. This also correspond to an increase value of our AUD verse USD, thus, dampening the increase in value of physical gold priced in AUD.  

That's the ironic situation for us Australian gold investors.  

What I do is to buy USD dominated ETCs (with physical backing!) and hedge it by borrowing USD with AUD to purchase them. This way, I am hedged against the movement of currencies. Of course, it means when gold prices do drop, I obviously suffer the "normal" investment lost.


----------



## refined silver

Who says cash is king?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={56A2CEE5-5A53-4A27-A4BA-585CFBE173A4}&siteid=rss



> Reserve Primary has both institutional and retail accounts. "This appears to be the first case where a retail investor will lose money in a money market fund." said Peter Crane, president of market research firm Crane Data in Westborough, Mass., though he called the situation "an anomaly."




Here is a money market fund freezing redemptions! You put your money into a money mkt fund supposedly the most liquid and safest vehicle available, and now its frozen and losing money!

Its apparently only the second time ever a money market fund's value had dropped below $1 per unit.

What is happening now is too astounding for words! When even people like Greenspan are calling it a once on a century event, its fairly serious.



> I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain




 From Jim Sinclair:
http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp



> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> 1. The quoted amount of OTC derivatives on Lehman's books are not notional value, but some silly mark to no market. The real number is trillions. When either party to an OTC derivative fails the value of that derivative instantaneously become the size of what was previously called notional value. With one quadrillion, one thousand one hundred and forty four trillion (BIS) in notional value, there is NO means to stop this financial cataclysm.
> 2. The **** has hit the fan because trillions of dollars of OTC derivatives failed Monday.
> 3. The entity to fail is not the winner on those fraudulent pieces of paper but the loser. Otherwise it would not have failed.
> 4. Many other counter parties to those derivatives have fallen into potential bankruptcy.
> 5. The long spoken about "domino effect" is active and I now believe the Fed did not consider how a derivative becomes full value (formerly called notional value) when one side goes into bankruptcy. Yes, Pandora's Box opened Monday morning.


----------



## refined silver

While we are being positive, here's some more!

Commodity and precious metal ETFs drop over 50% because the backer was/is AIG! 

http://www.investegate.co.uk/invarticle.aspx?id=58393

Do you know how much your paper gold and silver certificates, ETFs etc may be worth, if the company backing them defaults and its found they didn't have any in the pool, or it was leased out, contracted to someone else, covered by paper, etc?


----------



## Ageo

Temjin said:


> The problem is that physical gold are priced in USD,





Not sure what physical you mean but im actually talking about actual gold (not paper). And its not priced on USD but on AUD (yes we go off the US spot but then the currency conversion kicks in) I.E over the last few weeks if i were trading the US spot then i would worry as it has taken a beating but on the other hand with physical gold i am actually up.


----------



## M34N

cuttlefish said:


> A lot of nationalised industries in the free world.   Capitalism communist style?
> 
> There is no paddle and the creek is long.
> 
> Gold isn't going to go up.   Gold is just going to 'be' while the USD dissappears.
> 
> Interesting times indeed.
> 
> Insurance anyone?  There's a better version on offer than AIG's.




Yeah it's funny, The Age ran a story on the latest casualty (AIG), so that makes the 3rd company in the past month to be 'controlled' by the US Government now. What happened to a free market?

This is probably why the market is bleeding so slow, every disaster is covered up and the bandages keep getting applied. I wonder how long before the next victim and another 'rescue package' is applied to the US economy.

What makes me wonder is, why all these failures in the past _month_? These problems have been known of since mid-2007 and only now we've had AIG, Lehmans, Fannie, Freddie, Merrill virtually bankrupt and having to be 'saved' all since the start of September... just in time before the US election maybe? Bizarre!


----------



## bean

Once spot pushes up past US$785 -790 resistance very soon then should be off to the races. 
Gold stocks doing quite nicely.


----------



## explod

M34N said:


> Yeah it's funny,
> 
> just in time before the US election maybe? Bizarre!




You got it, the ELECTIONS.    Who controls, controls the money.

These companies are bailed out by the fed because they are such basket cases that no one else will finance them anymore.

Gold, very bad, it sends signal that currencies are a basket case.   Gold after December no worries, 

and yes Bean those stocks of mine up average 9% today, worth the wait, may not break the resistance tonight because AIG's been saved....Yeee Ha ha ho who whoa there boy


----------



## michael_selway

Temjin said:


> The problem is that physical gold are priced in USD, and it usually only rises when the USD Index is down. Fairly negative correlation. This also correspond to an increase value of our AUD verse USD, thus, dampening the increase in value of physical gold priced in AUD.
> 
> That's the ironic situation for us Australian gold investors.
> 
> What I do is to buy USD dominated ETCs (with physical backing!) and hedge it by borrowing USD with AUD to purchase them. This way, I am hedged against the movement of currencies. Of course, it means when gold prices do drop, I obviously suffer the "normal" investment lost.




Hehe yep good point, we need a currency/commoditiy that is independant of any currencies and has its own denomination that can be used the same aroudn the world etc?

thx

MS


----------



## Whiskers

M34N said:


> What happened to a free market?
> 
> This is probably why the market is bleeding so slow, every disaster is covered up and the bandages keep getting applied. I wonder how long before the next victim and another 'rescue package' is applied to the US economy.
> 
> What makes me wonder is, why all these failures in the past _month_?
> 
> ... just in time before the US election maybe? Bizarre!




No doubt part of it, but I think too many people are getting a bit too carried away with particular companies. 

For me, as has been pointed out often, these problems have tentacle's all around the world. That is why I believe there is and will be more gov intervention worldwide to prevent any substantial losses to consumers and the general public... in the national interest... thus spreading the damage, if you like around the world and minimising the impact on consumers and the markets.

Not getting into the morality or otherwise of that, just see that as inevitable.

It's on that basis that I see the US leading a recovery of sorts and the rest of the world lagging behind.



bean said:


> Once spot pushes up past US$785 -790 resistance very soon then should be off to the races.
> Gold stocks doing quite nicely.




While all this cash/credit crisis stuff is going on it's worth keeping in mind that gold production is slowing and a significant lag of production is looming.

For those reasons I still see the USD going higher because relative to Europe and Britan for example, I think the US will be getting over the worst while the rest are still sorting out their ramifications and also gold as people with a bit of spare cash start to position themselves more for the medium and longer term.


----------



## bean

refined silver said:


> Who says cash is king?
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={56A2CEE5-5A53-4A27-A4BA-585CFBE173A4}&siteid=rss
> 
> 
> 
> Here is a money market fund freezing redemptions! You put your money into a money mkt fund supposedly the most liquid and safest vehicle available, and now its frozen and losing money!
> 
> Its apparently only the second time ever a money market fund's value had dropped below $1 per unit.
> 
> What is happening now is too astounding for words! When even people like Greenspan are calling it a once on a century event, its fairly serious.
> 
> 
> 
> From Jim Sinclair:
> http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp





Someone mention this scenario on a US forum I subscribe to.
Possibility of what may/could happen

You are probably aware that a large money market fund company with large holdings in Lehman bonds announced today that the fund that held these bonds will "break the buck"----ie, will have its NAV reduced to $0.97 per share. This results in a loss of 3% for the investors in the MM fund, rather large considering they were probably earning only about 1.5% in the fund itself.

I suspect that many MM fund investors will find this risk/reward ratio intolerable, and their likely move will be into US govt MM funds, ie invested solely in t-bills.

This will begin a quick death spiral. As investors move funds out of their regular MM funds (ie, funds holding debt that is not backed by the US govt), this will require the fund managers to sell assets held by the fund in order to provide cash for the redemptions. As other MM fund managers try to sell the same type of dent instruments, the value of this paper will decline markedly.

As these assets decline in value, other MM funds will be forced to break the buck as well, causing more and more investors to remove their assets from these funds, leading to a "run" on these funds. ---*My sense is that all it will take is for a few more MM funds to announce that there is risk in non-US govt MM funds, and the game will be over in just a few days.*

At the same time, short-term US govt debt will be in such high demand that interest rates will be bid down to zero, or perhaps go negative.

(This should be good for gold, but not for much of anyone else. It will be particularly bad for state governments, since they unfortunately can't print money to back their debt.) (It will also be very bad for businesses that rely on relatively low-cost short-term money-market financing.) (It will also probably end up driving up long-term borrowing rates for corporations, and likely for long-term US debt as well.) (I would also not want to be long the GM at this point either.)

I don't foresee any solution other than for the US govt to step in and provide FDIC-type insurance for MM funds as well. The end result is that, like it or not, eventually all of the so-called "toxic" assets will find their way on to the US balance sheet.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

FWIW, some sort of wedgy thingy hapning - primed for a big move - up???


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> FWIW, some sort of wedgy thingy hapning - primed for a big move - up???



Very interesting isn't it Uncle.

Seems all the hot money has gone home. (probably with a termination letter)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Very interesting isn't it Uncle.
> 
> Seems all the hot money has gone home. (probably with a termination letter)




Huh? To me it looks like $785 is the resistance in a classic ascending triangle, with bullish continuance from accumulation?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Huh? To me it looks like $785 is the resistance in a classic ascending triangle, with bullish continuance from accumulation?




I'm just saying considering all the crazy action elsewhere you wouldn't expect gold to be suck in the range it set in the first 4 hours of trading early Monday.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm just saying considering all the crazy action elsewhere you wouldn't expect gold to be suck in the range it set in the first 4 hours of trading early Monday.....




Oh ok. The next 2 hrs are critical either way; it usually makes a big move around this timeframe.


----------



## refined silver

Now Morgan Stanley looking at a merger.

And 3 major UK banks doing the same.

Earlier this year it was banks going broke each week after 5pm Friday.

Then was was each day,

Now its coming every few hours!

Why is gold still range bound? Cos with gold you need to be aware of the fundamentals, the technicals and the interventionals. If the Fed can put $80b without blinking to save the system, how important also to spend a couple of billion keeping gold down, as thats the canary in the mine shouting the system is bankrupt. Unfortunately I don't think it can stay hidden much longer.


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> and the interventionals. If the Fed can put $80b without blinking to save the system, how important also to spend a couple of billion keeping gold down, as thats the canary in the mine shouting the system is bankrupt. Unfortunately I don't think it can stay hidden much longer.




Yes but still you would expect the volume to be up at least while they bashed down the heads as the poped up but its not there


----------



## Trembling Hand

But watch out here she goes


----------



## refined silver

If this really is the end, and look at the evidence:

1. Daily bankrupcies of the largest financial institutions on planet - centred in the US, but affecting many other places.
2. Unwinding of the quadrillion dollar OTC derivative mkt which has no clearing house, no regulations, no market, is dependent on the loser for payment etc, has just started.
3. Money market funds starting to fail.
4. The FIDC which had about $50b is now said to be very low and needs to go the Fed.
5. The SIPC which is broker insurance, is funded to $1.5b!! How soon are they going to go broke?
6. ETFs failing. Pool silver and gold accounts in big trouble.

What are the options?

Cash in hand? Physical gold or silver in hand or safety deposit box? very select shares in PM co's that are ASX and on CHESS in your name, or if overseas, either certificated, or DRS? (otherwise if the broker goes belly up, you'd want to have had a lawyer check the custodial clauses were airtight.)

Govt bonds. But how long til these blow as well?


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> But watch out here she goes




Yep nice. Not quite end of the world stuff yet though.


----------



## wayneL

OK officially joining the gold bulls here.


----------



## Whiskers

refined silver said:


> Yep nice. Not quite end of the world stuff yet though.




Yep nice alright. 

Keeps my much critised EW count in play. 

That 802 makes iii of 3 of 5 for wave C which I'm thinking will be wave 1. By my count (if it's right) it should get up around 850 for C and 5 again pretty soon before it corrects into wave 2.

PS: Well make that 817 odd for iii, so far.


----------



## refined silver

refined silver said:


> Yep nice. Not quite end of the world stuff yet though.




Well now its up nearly $40 in less than an hour. Thats the biggest up move this bull mkt since 01. 

Maybe it is the end of the world?


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> Yep nice alright.
> 
> Keeps my much critised EW count in play.
> 
> That 802 makes iii of 3 of 5 for wave C which I'm thinking will be wave 1. By my count (if it's right) it should get up around 850 for C and 5 again pretty soon before it corrects into wave 2.



That was nothing to do with EW counts mate.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looky at dem dar shorts go runnin' pa!

Go Ricky, Go Ricky

Elvis has left the building.......................................

Ahem, regaining some composure, it was good while it lasted 

(NEM up 7.5%, LGL up 9% so far, against Dow down 200 = decouple)


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> Well now its up nearly $40 in less than an hour. Thats the biggest up move this bull mkt since 01.
> 
> Maybe it is the end of the world?




And some pretty big volume moving too.

I tried to help you guys throwing my 1 lot trade into the mix on the break.

Or maybe it was Whiskers EW that did it


----------



## Kauri

Many traders in the commodity currencies have been left scratching their heads with gold rocketing some 5% on the day and showing no correlation to Kiwi price action which traditionally would be bid on such a rally in gold prices. However, the reason for the breakdown in the correlation has more to do with the factors behind the run up in gold. Maybe gold is now starting to trade back on the traditional themes of a hedge against risk and flight to safety rather than the gold that had been driving higher over the past years on the growth story. If this is indeed true, then Kiwi would not benefit in the same way from the higher commodity price as the driving force behind the gold move would be based on heightened risk aversion, something that forces Kiwi selling. I tunk... and hope..   

Crude Invent. Down 6.3 mln; Gas Down 3.3 mln 

Cheers
..............Kauri


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> And some pretty big volume moving too.
> I tried to help you guys throwing my 1 lot trade into the mix on the break.
> Or maybe it was Whiskers EW that did it




Thanks mate! It all helps!

The small specs were had loaded up on shorts on the last COT report. Ouch! 

The nicest thing about the last hour (wonder how long it lasts!) is that gold shares are finally going the opposite way to the general mkt. They are supposedly the only stocks that historically have a Beta or inverse relationship to the normal mkts but we haven't seen it much lately. 

HUI is now up nearly 10% and Dow down 240pts.


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> That was nothing to do with EW counts mate.




That's true, cos not many people believe in such stuff... but if they did and had the knack, they'd have seen it coming. 

But wait a minute... are ya sure! I did have it forecast on the thread though. Wish the bludy XAO would turn around soon too... that'd show em. 

But my FA saw it coming anyway... this EW thing is proving to be of some value in terms of range finding though.


----------



## wayneL

Holy Crap!

Another > $10 in 3 minutes.


----------



## Trembling Hand

This hour is going to set records for volume traded. (recent history

The shorts haven't stepped aside yet.


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> I tried to help you guys throwing my 1 lot trade into the mix on the break.




Let us know when you close it. You could buy all the goldies a drink on it! (especially if its still open.)


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> That's true, cos not many people believe in such stuff... but if they did and had the knack, they'd have seen it coming.
> 
> But wait a minute... are ya sure! I did have it forecast on the thread though. Wish the bludy XAO would turn around soon too... that'd show em.
> 
> But my FA saw it coming anyway... this EW thing is proving to be of some value in terms of range finding though.



For any psych students out , here is a study in cognitive bias.


----------



## Trembling Hand

refined silver said:


> Let us know when you close it. You could buy all the goldies a drink on it! (especially if its still open.)




LOL!! Sorry but like a true flipper I left most of it for the true belivers. Long gone


----------



## Kauri

With a surge in gold buying as the final sign of capitulation, Asian accounts rumoured to be prolific buyers, the Yen is also rising as Japanese money managers take more chips off the table. USD/JPY has dropped to 104.70 US session lows, and looks set to probe lower, as US equities remain in a sustained slump, off 2.2% this morning. The Yen has firmed across the board; EUR/JPY is down to 148.65 having peaked at 151.53 in Asia last night, the low has been 148.23, however with yesterday"s 147.07 lows as the downside marker stops are meant to be quite a way from here.
AUD/JPY has collapsed to 82.51 from 84.05 at the NY open, even a buoyant gold price can't save the Oz it seems; gold is up a staggering fifty bucks at present - *the reason it isn"t helping the Aussie is that this is a defensive move into gold, and a general de-leveraging of market positions which is hurting carry trades*. GBP/JPY has dropped from 189.40 to 187.90 and is actually holding in quite well, mainly because traders are dumping long EUR/GBP positions which are pressuring EUR. 

Oh well... back to work..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## refined silver

SEC just issued rule against naked shorting in all listed stocks today. 

Could help gold shares if shorters haven't actually borrowed the shares. This was already illegal, just might make a difference if its now going to be enforced.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Aussie gold $1050, up $78, 8%


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL!! Sorry but like a true flipper I left most of it for the true belivers. Long gone




We need it! Got a lot of recent red to make back up!!!


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> gold is up a staggering fifty bucks at present - *the reason it isn"t helping the Aussie is that this is a defensive move into gold, and a general de-leveraging of market positions which is hurting carry trades*. ............Kauri




True.

Also the Venezualian CB is now buying

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVL5dFLFQ52s&refer=news


----------



## BentRod

Wow....my Gold shorts just got popped off.

What a move.


----------



## refined silver

Maybe the gold boppers for the PPT worked for Lehmans and they forgot to replace them??


----------



## Kauri

refined silver said:


> True.
> 
> Also the Venezualian CB is now buying
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVL5dFLFQ52s&refer=news




Venezuela's central bank *may* buy 15 metric tons of gold *a year* to develop gold investment products including coins,..

   you can bank on that..  

Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> Many traders in the commodity currencies have been left scratching their heads with gold rocketing some 5% on the day and showing no correlation to Kiwi price action which traditionally would be bid on such a rally in gold prices. However, the reason for the breakdown in the correlation has more to do with the factors behind the run up in gold. Maybe gold is now starting to trade back on the traditional themes of a hedge against risk and flight to safety rather than the gold that had been driving higher over the past years on the growth story. If this is indeed true, then Kiwi would not benefit in the same way from the higher commodity price as the driving force behind the gold move would be based on heightened risk aversion, something that forces Kiwi selling. I tunk... and hope..
> 
> Crude Invent. Down 6.3 mln; Gas Down 3.3 mln
> 
> Cheers
> ..............Kauri





Thanks for making some sense of it..  what has really blown me away tonight is the _complete_ lack of correspondence between what gold is doing with what the USD, Euro and Oil are doing.  It's _very_ unusual.  Maybe it does suggest that 'the market has changed'.

The biggest question in my mind over these recent weeks has been, why are people so eager to receive a return of 2% on treasuries when CPI is running at almost 9%?  Since when was a -7% dividend considered something worth having?  Gold's consistent 0% dividend and international acceptance as a store of value has always won the bid when interest rates on government currencies became strongly negative.  Hopefully tonight is a semaphore that logic will prevail.. and not just some big latecomers who got caught on the wrong side of a trade!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Throw away the charts, entering uncharted territory dictated by fear, greed and dare I say it, official intervention (in all markets) where necessary?
> 
> A period of $50 daily swings in POG, lot's of money to be made (or lost) on the swings ie nice $20 spike down to $764 just then then bounce up again. DXY up/down 2 pts!
> 
> This is going to be a wild ride! Decoupling time?






Kauri said:


> Decoupling.... what/who is decoupling now.... not the old "_the world economy from the US economy " chestnut, _that decoupling theory actually derailed... so who is decoupling from who... now ???
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri







barrett said:


> Thanks for making some sense of it.. what has really blown me away tonight is the _complete_ lack of correspondence between what gold is doing with what the USD, Euro and Oil are doing. It's _very_ unusual. Maybe it does suggest that 'the market has changed'.




Gold de-coupling from _everything_ in action!


----------



## refined silver

Its all about flight to safety.

With the volatility that's coming TA may be not much help, but thats not a flag forming as we speak is it?

Those who went to bed early are in for a shock in the morning!


----------



## barrett

refined silver said:


> Its all about flight to safety.
> 
> With the volatility that's coming TA may be not much help, but thats not a flag forming as we speak is it?
> 
> Those who went to bed early are in for a shock in the morning!




Oh are they what!  Up a cool 60 bucks so far at 943... I think it might retrace a little from here though.  My golds all up 10% so far.  Even so I feel like finding the buyers and banging their heads against a very hard surface and saying 'where the f...  were you last week and the week before!'.  I mean, everyone suddenly decides to move into gold _at once_, when all this crap has been so f-ing obvious for years?  Times like tonight the market shows what a pissweak measure of value it really is.  Anyway congratulations to anyone who went long at 735 or thereabouts.. I nearly did.. but no cigar


----------



## CanOz

Interesting......arguments for demand in GOLD and 'other' claims.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/95496-law-of-supply-demand-is-dead-for-gold-silver

CanOz


----------



## wayneL

barrett said:


> Oh are they what!  Up a cool 60 bucks so far at 943...



Whoa there Sapphire! Give it a day or two to get to *9*43. But *8*43 is not a bad effort for one session.


----------



## wayneL

BTW, my short term Idiot Wave forecast for gold after today's move is for either

1/ Price continues strong upward momentum

2/ Price retraces some part of this move before moving up

3/ Price retraces all of this move before moving up

4/ It's all downhill from now

5/ Price stalls and moves sideways


----------



## cuttlefish

cuttlefish said:


> Why still optimistic  ....
> 
> The biggest reason is in the event of a USD/global currency related black swan sort of event I still see gold as having the potential to rise very sharply and significantly.





Looks like a few people want to exchange their sorbent tissue for something of value tonight.

The thought of the US failing is a scary thought still - but disorganised knee jerk reactions by the treasury haven't looked convincing at all.   The US is looking a lot like a badly managed business trying to juggle cashflow and aged debtors and trading themselves deeper and deeper into a mess at the moment - there doesn't seem to be much order to it.


----------



## theasxgorilla

wayneL said:


> BTW, my short term Idiot Wave forecast for gold after today's move is for either
> 
> 1/ Price continues strong upward momentum
> 
> 2/ Price retraces some part of this move before moving up
> 
> 3/ Price retraces all of this move before moving up
> 
> 4/ It's all downhill from now
> 
> 5/ Price stalls and moves sideways




Bases covered there...I predict you get it right.


----------



## deadset

Investing in Gold ?  Just curious.

I presumed that most Gold investors simply invest in companies that mine gold.

Is it possible to directly invest in the gold price, or do you have to actually physically buy and keep it ?  You can invest directly in the commodity price right ?


----------



## cuttlefish

deadset said:


> Investing in Gold ?  Just curious.
> 
> I presumed that most Gold investors simply invest in companies that mine gold.
> 
> Is it possible to directly invest in the gold price, or do you have to actually physically buy and keep it ?  You can invest directly in the commodity price right ?




Some of the direct gold investment options would include gold futures, gold ETF's (e.g. GOLD which is listed on the ASX and tradeable like any other ASX listed stock),  unallocated gold from perth mint, allocated gold from perth mint, or direct purchases of gold from bullion dealers (e.g. AGR Matthey, Ainslie bullion etc.).


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> BTW, my short term Idiot Wave forecast for gold after today's move is for either
> 
> 1/ Price continues strong upward momentum
> 
> 2/ Price retraces some part of this move before moving up
> 
> 3/ Price retraces all of this move before moving up
> 
> 4/ It's all downhill from now
> 
> 5/ Price stalls and moves sideways




  everything and anything well covered... now how to sell it to the punters...  methinks your address must be No1 Wall St...   

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## bean

bean said:


> A few US Gold Index have now filled gaps that they made in December 2005.
> I always thought that for them to be able to fill the gaps POG would be about US 550-630.  However it appears that needs not be the case.  The various US Gold Index have made a significant bottom.  POG will follow higher quickly.  The US $ will now more than likely drop 50%.  Of course when the GM market starts its next wave down Goldies may follow to a degree but should not take out this bottom otherwise (POG may be ready to start a Bear).
> 
> How confident am I
> 
> Never purchased options before until a week or so ago had to be 99.99% correct of the direction, price and time
> So bought Puts sold them wednesday.
> The out of money call options on NCM, LGL, OZL I purchase on thursday and friday should be well in the money over the next few days.  And I am not selling quickly.
> The stocks led POG down now they will lead it up
> But POG may have huge daily moves but mainly up.
> The train has left the station!!!
> (but remember we may have to have a few stops along the way for the GM markets. And to Pick up survivors,  late comers and new believers )




A US Gold site I subscribed to picked the bottom last week.

All the out of money call options I purchased.  I think are going to be in or near money now/soon 

I also said wave three had started.

I was wrong its only wave TWO


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> A US Gold site I subscribed to picked the bottom last week.
> 
> All the out of money call options I purchased.  I think are going to be in or near money now/soon
> 
> I also said wave three had started.
> 
> I was wrong its only wave TWO



Gold still hasn ´t made a higher high or low yet has it....or broken critical resistance around $800. Therefore how can anyone have called a difinitive bottom... other than pluck. 

Hope it was though for you bean.

But werent you calling for $600s......

 as hell...


----------



## bean

kennas said:


> Gold still hasn ´t made a higher high or low yet has it....or broken critical resistance around $800. Therefore how can anyone have called a difinitive bottom... other than pluck.
> 
> Hope it was though for you bean.
> 
> But werent you calling for $600s......
> 
> as hell...




Kennas
Check the POG and charts 
Last night It jumped US$ 90 
to about US$ 870

HUI almost 12% up


----------



## Temjin

Holy M@#$!@#% @#$%@!! 

That's the biggest move ever over the last 2 decades! 

I thought I was dreaming when I just about to left for work this morning and saw the financial news reporting gold is now at USD $860ish. I was like....WTF??!! That's impossible, something is wrong! 

Now I just wish I had brought more at the mid $700s and some junior shares, but already fully commited. Oh well, at least there are profits.  

I wondered how would our junior gold shares do today...it would probably sky rocket to some extraordinary value.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Kennas
> Check the POG and charts
> Last night It jumped US$ 90
> to about US$ 870
> 
> HUI almost 12% up



Ooops, the charts Im looking at had it under 800.

Brazil are a few days behind the rest of the world...

You were still calling 600s though werent you.... $630 ish....


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Aussie gold $1050, up $78, 8%




Yep, its all coming together and thanks to the discussions and collective on this thread we began loading up on aussie producers over the last month.

yeeeeeeee  haaaaaaaaaaa

cant believe I brought some more LGL at $1.99 only to see them with horror go to $1.80 the following day.  It has been a hard road indeed and I am sure some shaky ones to come but remember days like this to make you stronger.

cheers explod


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> It has been a hard road indeed and I am sure some shaky ones to come but remember days like this to make you stronger.
> 
> cheers explod




Well said. 

Remember that September month has posted an average annualised return of over 30% for the last 30 years. The odds are really against a negative month for September. 

Those who brought in early September could well receive 30% by the end of this month. I didn't thought we would make it this month, but i guess cyclical trend still prevail.


----------



## noirua

Temjin said:


> Well said.
> 
> Remember that September month has posted an average annualised return of over 30% for the last 30 years. The odds are really against a negative month for September.
> 
> Those who brought in early September could well receive 30% by the end of this month. I didn't thought we would make it this month, but i guess cyclical trend still prevail.




Gold and Government bonds look the best bets now. US$1,000 per oz could be reached very quickly.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whoa....... hold it it boys. I can hear the victory trumpets sounding.

With all due respect it is just a ONE day jump (an amazing one sure) up to here 


I mean everyone likes to be on a good trade but the last couple of pages read like acceptance speeches at the Oscars!! LOL


----------



## CamKawa

Trembling Hand said:


> Whoa....... hold it it boys. I can hear the victory trumpets sounding.
> 
> With all due respect it is just a ONE day jump (an amazing one sure) up to here
> 
> 
> I mean everyone likes to be on a good trade but the last couple of pages read like acceptance speeches at the Oscars!! LOL



lol, right you are. So who's going to sell here and lock in profits?


----------



## wayneL

Trembling Hand said:


> Whoa....... hold it it boys. I can hear the victory trumpets sounding.
> 
> With all due respect it is just a ONE day jump (an amazing one sure) up to here




Yep, and that's a worry for this newly minted gold bug. Where are the new buyers? That's what we need for this to go to 1,000,000/oz or whatever us crazy gold bugs suggest.


----------



## Temjin

Trembling Hand said:


> Whoa....... hold it it boys. I can hear the victory trumpets sounding.
> 
> With all due respect it is just a ONE day jump (an amazing one sure) up to here
> 
> 
> I mean everyone likes to be on a good trade but the last couple of pages read like acceptance speeches at the Oscars!! LOL




hahah true, but it's nothing wrong with celebrating for just this one day. Doesn't hurt.


----------



## barrett

wayneL said:


> Yep, and that's a worry for this newly minted gold bug. Where are the new buyers? That's what we need for this to go to 1,000,000/oz or whatever us crazy gold bugs suggest.




I'm still trying to work out who the buyers were last night!  It was anything but normal.. it looked like forced buying.  With all the big swaying bodies on Wall Street at the moment, could this have been based on one entity's massive short position being forcibly unwound?  

Whoever was buying, it created the biggest volume day in gold futures in history, and S&P down 4.71% with HUI up 11.72% is the biggest divergence I've seen in four years of watching them.

Here is one explanation which seems pretty ridiculous although it's the best I've heard yet: 
"Gold has been whipsawed in recent weeks by rapidly shifting investor perceptions over whether it remains a safe-haven asset or whether it is part of a riskier commodities pool."  
So we're all schizophrenics when it comes to gold!

The markets are driven by big players and surely there is more to it than this...  can we ever know what happened last night?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Just an amazing rally that still has legs today. 
Where will it end production is dropping manipulation touted by the powers that be demand rising and financial turmoil ruling markets.
Oh did I mention inflation.
Has there ever been a better time for gold ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

barrett said:


> I'm still trying to work out who the buyers were last night!  It was anything but normal.. it looked like forced buying.  With all the big swaying bodies on Wall Street at the moment, could this have been based on one entity's massive short position being forcibly unwound?
> 
> Whoever was buying, it created the biggest volume day in gold futures in history,




Will be interesting to see the OI figures when they are published. The volume was truly amazing. 

No doubt a lot of sleeping shorts court out but there was of course just as many sellers. For me last night was the first skirmish in a new war. Knowing who is going to win the battle at this stage is a bit hard.


----------



## Ageo

cuttlefish said:


> or direct purchases of gold from bullion dealers (e.g. AGR Matthey, Ainslie bullion etc.).




AGR is selling up they are going out of the game (over capitalized) im in the mix right now to see if i can pick up their stock (over 2 tonnes) but their being greedy for prices. This wont be the 1st major refiner going under also.....

AUD gold price is nice sitting at around 1103


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Will be interesting to see the OI figures when they are published. The volume was truly amazing.
> 
> No doubt a lot of sleeping shorts court out but there was of course just as many sellers. For me last night was the first skirmish in a new war. Knowing who is going to win the battle at this stage is a bit hard.




Not hard at all.  Gold is the only thing apart from good property that has good value in it at the moment.   Many of us here have been trying to tell you that for years.

T/H you have still obviously not had a good read of this thread, as I suggested the other day, or you would have no doubts.

As has been said many times, gold as an investment was only .005% of the total investement market, the slightest shift in sentiment towards it will send it parabolic.  In my very humble opinion of course.

We live in interesting times.


----------



## cluster

Hey barrett, my theory is that last night Lehman Bros had their trades closed after filing for Chapter 11 and they were net short on gold. This triggered a massive short covering and hence the explosion in price.  The timing fits perfectly, and I remember reading that they were short on gold.  Nothing else could have changed in the last 24 hours to invoke such as explosive move. Sure the fundamentals are super bullish for gold, but when haven't they been recently?  A move like this smacks of manipulation (of the good kind this time) and I am VERY cautious of it as we full well know that it can track to the downside just as quickly if not even quicker.

Regards,

Cluster.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Not hard at all.  Gold is the only thing apart from good property that has good value in it at the moment.   Many of us here have been trying to tell you that for years.
> 
> T/H you have still obviously not had a good read of this thread, as I suggested the other day, or you would have no doubts.




Ok Explod whatever 

Tell ya what when your averaging down on the likes of SBM and your other gold plays gets to break-even will ya tell me?

Then I can at least weight your arrogance to above triple negative junk!!


----------



## Temjin

cluster said:


> Hey barrett, my theory is that last night Lehman Bros had their trades closed after filing for Chapter 11 and they were net short on gold. This triggered a massive short covering and hence the explosion in price. The timing fits perfectly, and I remember reading that they were short on gold. Nothing else could have changed in the last 24 hours to invoke such as explosive move. Sure the fundamentals are super bullish for gold, but when haven't they been recently? A move like this smacks of manipulation (of the good kind this time) and I am VERY cautious of it as we full well know that it can track to the downside just as quickly if not even quicker.
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Cluster.




It would be interesting to know how much shorts they really have before they collapsed. And also if they really have fully covered their shorts.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Temjin said:


> It would be interesting to know how much shorts they really have before they collapsed. And also if they really have fully covered their shorts.




No way would they unwind in a day. And if that was the truth for the gold bugs that is the worst possible thing. Whats going to drive it up from hear?

And what no one has yet to mention is who was on the other side of the biggest volume day yet?? there was equal amount of sellers.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Ok Explod whatever
> 
> Tell ya what when your averaging down on the likes of SBM and your other gold plays gets to break-even will ya tell me?
> 
> Then I can at least weight your arrogance to above triple negative junk!!




Yes SBM was a worry at average .279 just looking at daylight perhaps.  LGL the only other major holding at 2.34 average.  Was out of the market for some time (apart from small plays in some specs) till a few months back.  So I have saved by being neutral.

I dont' wonder, I try to back my investing and what I say with some rationale and reasoning.   And I get it wrong, but most of the time its good for me.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

interesting stage... if you give voodoo any credence..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

cluster said:


> Hey barrett, my theory is that last night Lehman Bros had their trades closed after filing for Chapter 11 and they were net short on gold. This triggered a massive short covering and hence the explosion in price.  The timing fits perfectly, and I remember reading that they were short on gold.  Nothing else could have changed in the last 24 hours to invoke such as explosive move. Sure the fundamentals are super bullish for gold, but when haven't they been recently?  A move like this smacks of manipulation (of the good kind this time) and I am VERY cautious of it as we full well know that it can track to the downside just as quickly if not even quicker.
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Cluster.




*Isn't the real issue why it was puched down so low in the first place*!?

I'm afraid I was a bit too conservative with my estimate. Have to maybe keep an open mind for the max now.

PS: Voodoo Kauri!  I think I change mine to ESP or somethin around here.

PPS: By the way, that target is 261.8% of wave B... the max for a flat... by my ESP, voodoo or whatever.


----------



## Ashsaege

This is what i found from 

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2359228.htm

'Indian wedding season boosts gold price

AM - Tuesday, 9 September , 2008  08:24:00
Reporter: Brigid Glanville
PETER CAVE: Investors are being tipped to watch the price of gold, which is expected to rise by 10 per cent in coming months.

It's not because of the parlous world economy, but because of the Indian wedding season.

Wealthy Indian brides can spend $AU2-million on gold they wear on their big wedding day.

With Indians becoming wealthier every year, there are predictions the gold price will go even higher.'


There are a few videos on youtube proclaiming that 'Illuminanties' own 99% of all the gold in the world and that they are selling to make the price go down. And apparently dooms day is just around the corner too!!! a bit of a laugh really!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ashsaege said:


> This is what i found from
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2359228.htm
> 
> 'Indian wedding season boosts gold price




LOL.


----------



## refined silver

Its triple (or quadruple?) witching this Friday with options expiry. Gold is normally hammered into this, and goes up the following week. Will be interesting to see what happens today and tomorrow.


----------



## cuttlefish

wayneL said:


> Yep, and that's a worry for this newly minted gold bug. Where are the new buyers? That's what we need for this to go to 1,000,000/oz or whatever us crazy gold bugs suggest..




There really isn't much of it (gold) so it doesn't need a lot of buyers.  If the US goes bankrupt (this won't happen in reality because they can print USD till the cows come home but consider the practical equivalent) whats a dollar worth?

For example there's a lot of oil - billions of barrels? or is it trillions of barrels? - but there isn't much gold.  About 150 000 tonnes in the world mined since solomons time.   Gold's specific gravity is 19 - so it doesn't take up much space either.    You could fit kalgoorlie super pits annual production in the back seat of your car if I've done my sums correctly.






> Hey barrett, my theory is that last night Lehman Bros had their trades closed after filing for Chapter 11 and they were net short on gold. This triggered a massive short covering and hence the explosion in price. The timing fits perfectly, and I remember reading that they were short on gold. Nothing else could have changed in the last 24 hours to invoke such as explosive move. Sure the fundamentals are super bullish for gold, but when haven't they been recently? A move like this smacks of manipulation (of the good kind this time) and I am VERY cautious of it as we full well know that it can track to the downside just as quickly if not even quicker.




This occurred to me when watching the move yesterday afternoon (courtesy of my current timezone).  It could be related to forced unwinding of Lehman positions or alternately some insto that Lehman is a counterparty to realising that Lehman is going to fail to settle and covering the cost/risk.   But with so many major institutions going under or looking shaky counterparty risk must be back on the agenda.   

As the gold bugs have been saying - there is no counterparty risk in physical gold.

Also if the US itself goes the equivalent of bankrupt then it won't be whats gold worth in USD any more, it will just be gold and other non-US currencies (which are all pegged against the USD as a reserve currency so what will they be worth).

The US is not looking like a business that is being managed in an orderly fashion at the moment - put it this way, I would be very wary about investing in if it were an ASX listed company.  We know what happens to the value of shares in listed companies when they can't meet their commitments.  (well actually now in the US they get bought by the govt but before that we know what used to happen to them).


----------



## Kauri

american and UK banks imploding at an alarming rate, cost of money.. if available... astronomical... Russian markets shut indefinitely due to massive falls.... the punters fear sliding into terror.... Bush thinking of reuming Yellowstone National Park to ensure he has enough paper for the presses.... maybe it was/is a safe haven flow that *Fed* on itself?? or nott..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## deadset

I've got a bad case of the "should of's" right now.


----------



## barrett

cluster said:


> Hey barrett, my theory is that last night Lehman Bros had their trades closed after filing for Chapter 11 and they were net short on gold. This triggered a massive short covering and hence the explosion in price.  The timing fits perfectly, and I remember reading that they were short on gold.  Nothing else could have changed in the last 24 hours to invoke such as explosive move. Sure the fundamentals are super bullish for gold, but when haven't they been recently?  A move like this smacks of manipulation (of the good kind this time) and I am VERY cautious of it as we full well know that it can track to the downside just as quickly if not even quicker.
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Cluster.




Thanks Cluster for the idea.  I don't know anything about how quickly trading positions are closed when CH11 is filed for - TH, do you?

TH there were as many sellers as buyers, by definition.. but sellers were as a queue of people being knocked out.. more interested in who was throwing the punches and why.  

Traders in general responding to bank/broker/insurer implosions, plunging stockmarket, etc etc. could have bought the day before. 

  Gartman thought it was started by an article in a Chinese newspaper saying that China will have to diminish the use of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. I don't really buy that explanation though! 
Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

barrett said:


> TH there were as many sellers as buyers, by definition.. but sellers were as a queue of people being knocked out.. more interested in who was throwing the punches and why.





Yep true but they both took the opportunity to unleash some wicked volume.

Its not like the sellers gave the bulls an easy ride up, they gave as much as they took. For me its what happens now. Both have spent a lot of bullets. Lets see who has the carry through. For me that is the real story. Like when we get a ripping one or two day rally in the share indexes then days latter take out the lows.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep true but they both took the opportunity to unleash some wicked volume.
> 
> Its not like the sellers gave the bulls an easy ride up, they gave as much as they took. For me its what happens now. Both have spent a lot of bullets. Lets see who has the carry through. For me that is the real story. Like when we get a ripping one or two day rally in the share indexes then days latter take out the lows.




Had a look at your good advice web page.  Yep just like me.  Long time ago threw out the books, phd in hard knocks, lost a lot of money getting there.  But my pencil studies of the market were from the persepctive of an old man.  Day or week trading too fast for me.  Works and made good money at it but blood pressure got to high.   Now what I found was find the best item with the greatest potential and look back and see what it did in the past and why, see what it is doing now and why and with that anticipate and watch the smart money.   Not going to get it to the day or even the month, maybe, but it all told me for the last few years and probably a couple more years that the big one is going to be gold.

Gold will allow you to sleep at night and prosper steady and sure.   But you still have to be alert and watch it every step.   

We have more in common than you think my friend just see it from a different age perspective.  When you get a bit older learn about the best thing at that moment and study the cr.p out of it

Cheers explod


----------



## cuttlefish

Wouldn't it be interesting if last nights buyers are planning on taking delivery.


----------



## lusk

cluster said:


> Hey barrett, my theory is that last night Lehman Bros had their trades closed after filing for Chapter 11 and they were net short on gold. This triggered a massive short covering and hence the explosion in price.  The timing fits perfectly, *and I remember reading that they were short on gold*.  Nothing else could have changed in the last 24 hours to invoke such as explosive move. Sure the fundamentals are super bullish for gold, but when haven't they been recently?  A move like this smacks of manipulation (of the good kind this time) and I am VERY cautious of it as we full well know that it can track to the downside just as quickly if not even quicker.




If you read about them being short its most probably wrong and they were actually long gold. Maybe what occurred was them creating demand to off load into.


----------



## refined silver

cuttlefish said:


> Wouldn't it be interesting if last nights buyers are planning on taking delivery.




At some stage when Russia, China, Japan, Korea, OPEC countries decide to diversify from the dollar, and many of them are openly stating thats their intention, I've often thought, the best way to diversify quickly is to buy a load of paper contracts then suddenly stand for delivery. It has to happen sometime. 

Again, its interesting how close to option expiry this rally has taken place. There are going to many out of the money calls, that are in the money on gold shares, if this price holds, which will need a big cover.


----------



## M34N

lusk said:


> If you read about them being short its most probably wrong and they were actually long gold. Maybe what occurred was them creating demand to off load into.




Good point, that's a possibility, but I suspect the combination of the past few days of people dumping stocks and currencies into cash, then piling it all into gold; the traditional safe haven, lead to this. The shoe has finally dropped, perhaps.

BTW as I'm typing this, +$17 gain for gold and it's only 4:20AM in New York. What an unbelievable run, lets see how it fares in NY trading tonight and if the gains hold. Also looks like the USD index just got pushed down in line with the spike in gold just then, well only time will tell!


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> Wouldn't it be interesting if last nights buyers are planning on taking delivery.




That is if the buyers were opening position rather than closing position. Its very probable that there are far less contracts open today than two days ago.


----------



## cuttlefish

refined silver said:


> Again, its interesting how close to option expiry this rally has taken place. There are going to many out of the money calls, that are in the money on gold shares, if this price holds, which will need a big cover.





Interesting point about the proximity to options expiry it could create some interesting outcomes. The paper has been pushed back and forth for so long that its probably unexpected to see real buying volume in the market.  Its a tiny market so real volume can create serious volatility.  I'm always surprised at the daily volumes in the gold market given the limited actual world production.   There is the equivalent of over a quarter of annual global production being traded daily if I've got my numbers right.  



> That is if the buyers were opening position rather than closing position. Its very probable that there are far less contracts open today than two days ago.




Sure it could be short covering - which to create this sort of rally could mean there were positional longs (as in real buyers) on the other side of the original short sales, or the short covering rally drew out additional buyers as well.  I would have thought the level of open short positions for something that has very little physical supply creates the potential for significant volatility if there are genuine buyers taking supply out of the market (the actual mine supply vs the actual volume of positions is tiny - I'm assuming the majority of the daily supply comes from leased gold - not sure how this compares to other commodity markets but it seems quite extreme).


----------



## cuttlefish

Maybe the "plunge protection team" hit gold prior to, and during, AIG and Lehmans, and this was their cover - powder dry again for the next iceberg.


Maybe this, maybe that. Time will tell but I'll stay long. This has only confirmed for me the view that if gold decides to leave the station it will be over the horizon before those on the platform have noticed it left.



Collapse of the USD isn't a two way street imo - i.e. if the USD goes into a proper cliff dive there won't be a 'recovery party' in two years time - the world will have changed and we'll live in a different global economy dominated by different players and a different form of currency (not necessarily gold but it will feature in the transition).


----------



## refined silver

HUI up 18pts or 6% in first 20mins in US, even though gold fairly flat.

Looks like there's a reasonable chance of follow through in this rally.


----------



## refined silver

The Bank of Scotland is collapsing, only option is a takeover by Lloyds.

A dark day for Scotland, the bank has been around since 1695! (Over 80 yrs before Cook came here!)

(Not RBS, but HBOS)


----------



## refined silver

Another $240b in CB cash today!!

Yesterday the US Treasury had to recapitalise the US Federal Reserve with $40b and gives another $60b on Thurs!!

The Fed had an $800b balance sheet before it opened its windows with all the different begging bowl facilities for insolvent financial institutions. Now the authorities are just having to print money to liquify all the debt. Very inflationary.


----------



## refined silver

From Adrian Ash:



> US Treasury bond yields crept higher as Wednesday's "safe haven" panic subsided, but three-month notes still offered just 0.03% to new buyers – up from yesterday's six-decade low of 0.003%, the lowest level since the London Blitz drove investment cash to seek shelter in government debt across the Atlantic.




and



> Meantime in London, ETFS Ltd. – the market-leading issuer of exchange-traded commodity note (ETCs) – said it was "trying to get market makers back in the market" after they stopped making prices in response to the collapse of American insurance giant AIG.
> 
> "We can give no assurance as to whether these...alternatives can be implemented at this stage," said the chairman, Graham Turkwell, on a conference call this morning.
> 
> He stressed that the loss of liquidity in ETFS's so-called classic, forward, inverse and leveraged DJ-AIG commodity index notes has "absolutely nothing to do with the metal or oil securities" such as its Gold ETF.


----------



## Whiskers

cuttlefish said:


> Maybe the "plunge protection team" hit gold prior to, and during, AIG and Lehmans, and this was their cover - powder dry again for the next iceberg.
> 
> 
> Maybe this, maybe that. Time will tell *but I'll stay long*. This has only confirmed for me the view that if gold decides to leave the station it will be over the horizon before those on the platform have noticed it left.
> 
> 
> 
> Collapse of the USD isn't a two way street imo - i.e. if the USD goes into a proper cliff dive there won't be a 'recovery party' in two years time - the world will have changed and we'll live in a different global economy dominated by different players and a different form of currency (not necessarily gold but it will feature in the transition).




I'm with you cuttlefish. From a TA perspective I think this is settling back into wave 4 with 5 to come.

You have also highlighed the future lack of production/supply of gold. That cannot be ignored or got around for any length of time.

However, I still believe the USD will go higher before it heads south again but I don't see that harming gold especially not in AUD terms.

The other important point from a TA is it didn't break below the peak of 06.


----------



## wayneL

Going for a nice gallop into the pit close. 

Noice.


----------



## noirua

wayneL said:


> Going for a nice gallop into the pit close.
> 
> Noice.




...it's US$1,000 here we come.  Dow has turned down 150 points and oil has recovered US$4.


----------



## M34N

Dropped $60 in over an hour just before, found a floor around $830-840.

What a trading range, this is insane!


----------



## explod

M34N said:


> Dropped $60 in over an hour just before, found a floor around $830-840.
> 
> What a trading range, this is insane!




The volatility will increase.  What is insane is the Good Ole US of A.

Announced that IAG will be removed from the Dow Index and then "Big Chief Burnin Bush" announces another great package of taxpayers dollar/toilet paper to rescue everything and we repeat "wees all saved"

Of course we have a huge line in the sand to protect up to the US Presidential election.

First, gold was getting noticed by mainstream, and ;

two, The dow sits on a support going back 10 years that if broken next major support would be 7000.


----------



## bean

bean said:


> A few US Gold Index have now filled gaps that they made in December 2005.
> I always thought that for them to be able to fill the gaps POG would be about US 550-630.  However it appears that needs not be the case.  The various US Gold Index have made a significant bottom.  POG will follow higher quickly.
> 
> The stocks led POG down now they will lead it up
> But *POG may have huge daily moves but mainly up.*
> The train has left the station!!!
> (but remember we may have to have a few stops along the way for the GM markets. And to Pick up survivors,  late comers and new believers )




Kennas yes I thought POG would drop to US$ 630 or less before a bottom was made as per explanation above.

Note how large the moves are in POG

But a good day yesterday for us goldies 
my Portfolio moved 90% higher in a day


----------



## Kauri

just out of interest, if you had bought Gold at around $1000 when it was being spruiked to $1500 by some notable peeples, the last day or two, astonishing as they are, would have recovered 33% of the 25% you would be down... or is my basic level math astray???

Cneers
...........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

bean said:


> my Portfolio moved 90% higher in a day




:error:


----------



## Kauri

any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... *over the next few trading sessions*... before it happens.... or nott???

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... *over the next few trading sessions*... before it happens.... or nott???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Back to 780-760...

Like an unfaithful lover. Consistently disappointing!!

Give it a week.


----------



## Dowdy

Kauri said:


> any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... *over the next few trading sessions*... before it happens.... or nott???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri





it'll get to a low of 830 today, then get to around 880.

The US is only postponing the inevitable crash with all these bailouts


----------



## explod

Dowdy said:


> it'll get to a low of 830 today, then get to around 880.
> 
> The US is only postponing the inevitable crash with all these bailouts




Maybe, but looking firm again now.  I think the rest of the world is seeing the real picture so it may trise today.

I will not predict medium to short.  My humble fundamental says it will continue to gain prominence as a store of wealth for some years to come.


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... *over the next few trading sessions*... before it happens.... or nott???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




I'm running with a different wave count to you, so if mine is correct it has to run out to a 5 count... probably 4 now... which if correct, must go a bit higher over the next few days before correcting back a bit.


----------



## Porper

Kauri said:


> any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... *over the next few trading sessions*... before it happens.... or nott???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




The retracement to 900 has occured so should go back to around 600


----------



## explod

Porper said:


> The retracement to 900 has occured so should go back to around 600





Yep , on the front page of my newspaper, very good time to sell

So good to be a bug.


----------



## explod

> Dear Jim,
> 
> Did you see this article, which includes a surprising quote from the Citigroup analyst?
> 
> Gold bugs have been proven correct in the contention that "an overwhelmingly vast and complex pool of nested financial derivatives would ultimately result in cascading defaults and ruin for major portions of the banking system," wrote Citigroup analyst John Hill.
> 
> "Frankly, we're surprised that gold is not already at $2,000 per ounce," he added."
> 
> Click here to view the full article…




What an upstart.   Anyway he's entitled to his opinion.

On Jim Sinclair's site, so we could expect no less.

Ah, well,---- decided not to sell my gold shares after all, after reading the paper properly, looks like gold has a bit further to run.   Lost faith in the Burnin Bush fella, and too quick on the draw for me anyway.

An another thing, Isn't that Citigroup in some sort a trouble too?


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... *over the next few trading sessions*... before it happens.... or nott???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




I think you're a bit mixed up! Its *your* job as a trader to say where its heading for the next few sessions.

We'll tell you where its ultimately headed as the system breaks down. Most gold bugs by definition are focussed on the bigger picture.


----------



## Trembling Hand

To tell you the truth I have no idea where its going. I truly don't care. I don't need to know. I just hope everything stays as wild as it has been.

Best of times to be playing a zero sum game!!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Back to 780-760...
> 
> Like an unfaithful lover. Consistently disappointing!!
> 
> Give it a week.




TH, really not sure where your scornful scepticism is coming from, but even some simple maths shows that there is money to made here, long & short (yes it's ok for a gold bug to short  ) - 

Picking some arbitrary point in time , say last week when gold was $735, to todays close around $850 would give you a return of 15%, _for the week_. Anything else come close to that?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> TH, really not sure where your scornful scepticism is coming from, but even some simple maths shows that there is money to made here, long & short



 Just my punt. Simply because of the volume. Who ever was on the other side (if it wasn't covering) will not be folding that easy. they never do.





Uncle Festivus said:


> Picking some arbitrary point in time , say last week when gold was $735, to todays close around $850 would give you a return of 15%, _for the week_. Anything else come close to that?




Not sure what your point is. But I will be quiet from here. I must be rubbing the wrong way.


----------



## cuttlefish

Kauri said:


> just out of interest, if you had bought Gold at around $1000 when it was being spruiked to $1500 by some notable peeples, the last day or two, astonishing as they are, would have recovered 33% of the 25% you would be down... or is my basic level math astray???
> 
> Cneers
> ...........Kauri





Not in AUD gold price - I don't have an AUD gold price chart handy but you would be pretty much breakeven or maybe even slightly ahead.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bucket shop AUD Gold,


----------



## cuttlefish

cheers TH - looks better than the xao over the same period of time.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Not sure what your point is. But I will be quiet from here. I must be rubbing the wrong way.




No, all good healthy discussion, but you have asked how in previous posts how there is money to be made with gold, so I put up an example. 

Apart from the classic ascending triangle set up 2 days ago, I think trying to predict gold, 'going forward' (as the doodle heads say), is impossible now with the transition to the 'new world order' of 'on the run' financial management rhetoric & contagion containment measures.

Gold looks like a countertrade to the Dow now?


----------



## refined silver

TH, if I was asking you, I'd want an answer for the next 30sec to 5 mins!


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> Just my punt. Simply because of the volume. Who ever was on the other side (if it wasn't covering) will not be folding that easy. they never do.




Thats very true. They've never folded easily for the last 7 years. 

They certainly haven't folded here either. There'll be a lot more violent back and forth (which is good for you), but there will come a period when they are overun, when SWFs and others really start buying. In the 70s, CBs were sellers for the first 2/3 to 3/4 of the gold bull, ( not bearish - it just allowed big buyers to take positions), and buyers for the last 1/4. Will be the same again. (Then that will be good for us!)


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Gold looks like a countertrade to the Dow now?




Gee Uncle, even if the dollar is becoming wallpaper, gold a countertrade to the Dow;         no one will have enought to buy my bullion off me.


----------



## cuttlefish

What is going on in the US is now quite mind blowing.  I think the Govt/Fed(s) are genuinely scared now. They'll need to inject a lot more funds to prop up the various institutions by the looks of it  - which may include some of their major banks - and the question is can they afford it.

My view is they need to try to manage an orderly but large decline of the USD and they will also need to try to manage an orderly inflationary process. That is going to be like trying to balance a shovel - personally I don't think its achievable and the wildness of the swings is reflecting that.  

I wonder if they'll come to a point where they'll consider the govt intervening to regulate the USD exchange rate (instead of trying to manipulate it the way they are now).  They could possibly do a short term intervention and ratchet the dollar down in a series of moves over a period of 6 months or so and then try to somehow deregulate it again.  That would allow them to let the insitutions that need to fail actually fail rather than continuing the bailouts and would also allow them to print the money they need to to fund the insitutions that are necessary.   It would of course create a black market in the USD exchange rate in the meantime and effectively put the US economy into protection mode but if the problem is as big as its looking it might be an option they consider.   (they've effectively gone the protectionist route by nationalising insitutions and all these bailouts anway haven't they?).

The only complexity with that idea is that the US is the reserve currency for other currencies and the amount of USD based assets held by foreign governments and institutions.

What I'm talking about is all a bit far fetched I know but just thinking aloud I guess.


----------



## solomon

Another option they may consider is to have a moratorium, a bit like the govt has done in Australia with illegal guns. The US Govt could offer a 90 day window in which bad debt/securitised debt could be exchanged for a particular (new) form of Govt fixed interest security.

It is a stupid idea, but it just the kind of thing the US might do, because it will give stability until after the election, and it doesn't involve immediate printing of money.


----------



## barrett

Uncle Festivus said:


> No, all good healthy discussion, but you have asked how in previous posts how there is money to be made with gold, so I put up an example.
> 
> Apart from the classic ascending triangle set up 2 days ago, I think trying to predict gold, 'going forward' (as the doodle heads say), is impossible now with the transition to the 'new world order' of 'on the run' financial management rhetoric & contagion containment measures.
> 
> Gold looks like a countertrade to the Dow now?




Yes when it all depends on the whims of government officials.. pretty hard to predict anything longer term than scalping.. 

I guess technically last night did look like a reversal on very high volume.. then again all of the volume occurred on the way up and the selloff was really on low volume (gold 5min attached).

More importantly I think the USD will find it very hard to rally much further than it has (see trendline against the EUR attached + closeup of what looks to me like a convincing bottom last week) which should help to put a bit of a floor under gold at least... 

...........unless the government actually decides to drop money out of helicopters - since today's Wall Street geniuses would probably use the piles of fallen notes to continue buying government bonds right up until their calorific value exceeds their price.  What's the world coming to when an eight figure bonus isn't enough to attract someone who understands money!  I'm just looking forward to the free garden mulch:


----------



## wayneL

Uncle Festivus said:


> Picking some arbitrary point in time , say last week when gold was $735, to todays close around $850 *would give you a return of 15%, for the week. Anything else come close to that?*



*Thousands* of stocks actually. Not to mention a host of other commodities as well.

But stock isn't as sexy as gold.


----------



## noirua

9.45am UTC fix is at US$840 per oz.


----------



## CamKawa

Here's a short video about the recent gold price by John Authers who is a bloke I reckon calls it pretty well.
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588...html?_i_referralObject=860045361&fromSearch=n


----------



## bean

This is from the site I subscribe to.  The freebie update.
http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

Some may think its rubbish or whatever.  But my portfolio has moved over 160% since the low and most of that was last two days.
So I am happy.  and long Gold.


----------



## wayneL

bean said:


> This is from the site I subscribe to.  The freebie update.
> http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html
> 
> Some may think its rubbish or whatever.  But my portfolio has moved over 160% since the low and most of that was last two days.
> So I am happy.  and long Gold.



160% on what? Margin?

Dumb dumb dumb way of looking at profit.


----------



## wayneL

Here we go again.


----------



## jeflin

With all the bailouts announced over the past two weeks, gold will deviate from oil trend in the short term. And the worst is not over yet so having a percentage of your portfolio in gold is not a bad idea.


----------



## bean

wayneL said:


> 160% on what? Margin?
> 
> Dumb dumb dumb way of looking at profit.




No margin.  Bought LGL call options oct - nov - dec
Been selling some on way up buying gold and buying more gold shares
For example bought some LGL 2.5 oct call option s for 0.04 cents 
sold yesterday for .40cents with proceeds purchase more gold and gold shares

LGL had another good day on US markets so may sell some more but still have 2.75 3.0 3.25 and 3.5 and my nov and dec
some May 09

GOLD IS GOING TO THE MOON  === A MUST READ
WHAT PRICE GOLD???
http://http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=173208


----------



## explod

wayneL said:


> Here we go again.





You must work for the banking system Waynel.   They hate gold and us gold bugs because because they dont' get any commissions from it.  Want us to make deposits as a safe haven.   Looking very unsafe at the moment.  Like Bean I have done very well out of gold the last week.

In fact most of the financial system talk gold down, no trailing fees etc.

Anyhow finished on a one month high at the close this morning and up $100 for the week.


----------



## wayneL

explod said:


> You must work for the banking system Waynel.   They hate gold and us gold bugs because because they dont' get any commissions from it.  Want us to make deposits as a safe haven.   Looking very unsafe at the moment.  Like Bean I have done very well out of gold the last week.
> 
> In fact most of the financial system talk gold down, no trailing fees etc.
> 
> Anyhow finished on a one month high at the close this morning and up $100 for the week.



Eh? I'm long gold in a big way atm explod... futures and futures options.

Take a look at my avatar, what do you see?

Have a look at my post #5161



wayneL said:


> OK officially joining the gold bulls here.




I've traded gold futures for years long and short.

The banking system IS THE ENEMY. I hate banks (but I'll still trade them )


----------



## bean

bean said:


> GOLD IS GOING TO THE MOON  === A MUST READ
> WHAT PRICE GOLD???
> http://http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=173208




Read this the US government is going to back the Financial debt with its GOLD reserves.


----------



## Dowdy

Dowdy said:


> it'll get to a low of 830 today, then get to around 880.
> 
> The US is only postponing the inevitable crash with all these bailouts




Picked the bottom well and only $10 off the top. Damn! I'm good :


----------



## gemtrawler

My thoughts on the surprising USD strength - I'm not talking about inflation, just the dollar strength here.
(Please note I'm not an economist - so would appreciate some feedback, this could be flawed thinking on my part)..

Let's use crude numbers just to illustrate..

1. Prior to all the trouble and whilst we were in the bull market the US economy had an economy that appeared to be $10 trillion strong ( GDP) .
There was a housing bubble and commodity prices were also high, say $1 trill dollars worth of froth ,, so whilst it thought it had a $10 trillion economy and the market thought it had a $10 trill economy it was actually a $9 trill economy .. so whilst the markets had assigned it a notional value of 10 the dollar was really worth a 9.

2. so before all the financial rescue packages we really had a $9 trill economy .. maybe the dollar gradually slid back to represent this new market view and realisation of the froth and did gradually go back down to the 9 value.

3. But just after this we saw the bank collapses and we have had a huge printing and injection of money to revive the economy and bail out financial institutions.
There was also the Bush incentive package to stimulate the economy.
Let's say there was an injection of $2 trill worth of funds to achieve that ..
so now we are back to a $9 trill GDP economy of which $7 trill is real and there's $2 trill of fake GDP.

So shouldnt the dollar value be now 7 not 9 , why/how has it risen against the rest of the world currencies recently last couple of months? Especially against strong currencies like the yen.
Shouldnt the market be assessing it that way ?

yet the market now sees the dollar as a $10 again .. how's that possible?

suggests to me the USD is artificially high and has been manipulated that way.
Note we're not talking about inflation - just the USD strength here.


----------



## gemtrawler

So further to my last post(and perhaps flawed thinking) .. the US dollar should drop to its true value at some stage if left to its own devices, in which case gold should rise against it,  as it has been kept artificially low.

In fact all commodities should be rising.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> US Government to secure mortgage market with gold reserves
> 
> Lee Jones - 19-Sep-2008 The U.S. Treasury Department has promised “hundreds of billions” to save the US markets using its own gold reserves.
> 
> President Bush approved the use of existing authorities by Treasury secretary Hank Paulson to make available as necessary the assets of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund for up to $50 billion to buy more illiquid mortgage assets.
> When the Government bailed out the the Government Sponsored Enterprises it promised to buy illiquid mortgage backed securities, but this announcement extends that pledge. The ESF was created after the Great Depression and uses the US gold reserve as collateral for financial stability.




The trouble is, nobody knows what the real gold reserves are, or if they exist at all?


----------



## bean

RAIDS OF INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS

This is so important a topic, that it deserves top billing!!! Hidden inside the AIG bailout funding package, surely hastily cobbled together, but carefully enough to include a totally corrupt clause, was a handy dandy clause that permits raids. The conglomerate financial firms are permitted at this point to use private individual brokerage account funds to relieve their own liquidity pressures. This represents unauthorized loans of your stock account assets. So next, if the conglomerate fails, your stock account is part of the bankruptcy process. Finally the corrupt USGovt and corrupt Wall Street houses are desperate enough to put into policy, stated by the US Federal Reserve, outlining the authorized raid of your money. 

For the full article
http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie091908.html


----------



## bankit

Uncle Festivus said:


> The trouble is, nobody knows what the real gold reserves are, or if they exist at all?



The attached link is the official site for US Gold reserves:

http://www.fms.treas.gov/GOLD/current.html

Note at the bottom of the figures that the physical gold is "examined annually" not audited???

I had some information (but can not find it at the moment ) which states that an official audit has not been held for umpteem years.


----------



## michael_selway

gemtrawler said:


> So further to my last post(and perhaps flawed thinking) .. the US dollar should drop to its true value at some stage if left to its own devices, in which case gold should rise against it,  as it has been kept artificially low.
> 
> In fact all commodities should be rising.




Hm gooid point

But is it true that if US dollar drops and commoditie prices rise in effect, then in Australian Terms its a 0 effect?

thx

MS


----------



## bean

For us goldies for a good laugh

Hitler gets a margin call

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY


----------



## Uncle Festivus

bean said:


> For us goldies for a good laugh
> 
> Hitler gets a margin call
> 
> http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY




ROFLOL - very clever. I blame Goldman Sachs too - all those traiters


----------



## barrett

bean said:


> For us goldies for a good laugh
> 
> Hitler gets a margin call
> 
> http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY




OMG Bean that is hysterical!!  Loved the bit about Paul van Eeden, and Aurelian takeover.. roflmao:


----------



## Kauri

refined silver said:


> I think you're a bit mixed up! Its *your* job as a trader to say where its heading for the next few sessions.
> 
> We'll tell you where its ultimately headed as the system breaks down. Most gold bugs by definition are focussed on the bigger picture.




  I'm tired of saying where I tink it's going over the next few sessions...  *my* job is actually to trade it... I post to fill in the time....    atween trades...  and read posts.. mostly for amusement..
ultimately headed....  why nott..
Cheers
............kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

> US Government to secure mortgage market with gold reserves
> 
> Lee Jones - 19-Sep-2008 The U.S. Treasury Department has promised “hundreds of billions” to save the US markets using its own gold reserves.
> 
> President Bush approved the use of existing authorities by Treasury secretary Hank Paulson to make available as necessary the assets of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund for up to $50 billion to buy more illiquid mortgage assets.
> When the Government bailed out the the Government Sponsored Enterprises it promised to buy illiquid mortgage backed securities, but this announcement extends that pledge. The ESF was created after the Great Depression and uses the US gold reserve as collateral for financial stability.






Uncle Festivus said:


> The trouble is, nobody knows what the real gold reserves are, or if they exist at all?



Lol. Just lol.

Giving the only real worth the US system has left, to people who have bankrupted a nation.

No wonder the money markets nearly entirely collapsed with the Chinese rapidly trying to convert to Gold stores.


----------



## Temjin

bean said:


> For us goldies for a good laugh
> 
> Hitler gets a margin call
> 
> http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY




ROFL!!!!!!! HAHAHH that gave me such a good laugh! HAHAHHH! Almost cried at the end! Great find!

Great timing too, a few days just before the rally.


----------



## Temjin

chops_a_must said:


> Lol. Just lol.
> 
> Giving the only real worth the US system has left, to people who have bankrupted a nation.
> 
> No wonder the money markets nearly entirely collapsed with the Chinese rapidly trying to convert to Gold stores.




And lol, where do they get their gold reserve from?? There isn't supposed to be much left in their vault, which hasn't been audited for decades!!!


----------



## Ashsaege

bean said:


> For us goldies for a good laugh
> 
> Hitler gets a margin call
> 
> http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY




That was gold!

They did an Adelaide Crows version of that video too.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

My concern now, if it does get to that point, is that the ASX & ASIC halt trading for all shares, let alone goldies. Gold going through the roof and unable to trade???? Where's my bullion?


----------



## refined silver

bean said:


> For us goldies for a good laugh
> 
> Hitler gets a margin call
> 
> http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY




Thats EXACTLY what happens when you use margin in gold!!


----------



## MrBurns

I think it's now time to buy physical gold but I need reassurance, that's honesty for you.

I'm about to call the Perth Mint and put a 6 figure sum into phyical gold.

Is there anything I've missed ?


----------



## wayneL

MrBurns said:


> I think it's now time to buy physical gold but I need reassurance, that's honesty for you.
> 
> I'm about to call the Perth Mint and put a 6 figure sum into phyical gold.
> 
> Is there anything I've missed ?




The spread.

It's enourmous on the actual shiny stuff. 

They also will log you as the holder... confiscation anyone?


----------



## MrBurns

wayneL said:


> The spread.
> 
> It's enourmous on the actual shiny stuff.
> 
> They also will log you as the holder... confiscation anyone?




I dont understand a word you said after the word "The"


----------



## Whiskers

MrBurns said:


> I think it's now time to buy physical gold but I need reassurance, that's honesty for you.
> 
> I'm about to call the Perth Mint and put a 6 figure sum into phyical gold.
> 
> Is there anything I've missed ?




I'm inclined to think it may just take out a new high above 915 in the next couple of days while the US congress thrash out whatever they are thrashing out, but once the 'plan' is on the table and everyone knows what it is, I'd expect gold to correct back for a few days even below current levels, probably into the 800's again. 

But I'm still looking for gold to go much higher in the medium to longer term.


----------



## wayneL

MrBurns said:


> I dont understand a word you said after the word "The"




On physical, the buy price and the sell price you get at the dealer is a few percent. http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx

It will be a lot narrower if you're tipping 6 figures in, but still a couple of percent. That's expensive. Then you have to store it, insure it etc.

When you buy it, the Australian gu'mint will know all about it. So if they ever do confiscate gold, they'll be sure to knock on your door.


----------



## MrBurns

Whiskers said:


> I'm inclined to think it may just take out a new high above 915 in the next couple of days while the US congress thrash out whatever they are thrashing out, but once the 'plan' is on the table and everyone knows what it is, I'd expect gold to correct back for a few days even below current levels, probably into the 800's again.
> 
> But I'm still looking for gold to go much higher in the medium to longer term.




Thanks, I think there's a very good chance the bail out optimism will very quickly fade, there's a lot of changes have to be made before it even gets through and when it does it may not work and once the bail out fails it's all over rover.

It's a gamble, I think I'll wait a little longer.


----------



## MrBurns

wayneL said:


> On physical, the buy price and the sell price you get at the dealer is a few percent. http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx
> 
> It will be a lot narrower if you're tipping 6 figures in, but still a couple of percent. That's expensive. Then you have to store it, insure it etc.
> 
> When you buy it, the Australian gu'mint will know all about it. So if they ever do confiscate gold, they'll be sure to knock on your door.




Confiscate gold ? geez whats that !


----------



## wayneL

MrBurns said:


> Confiscate gold ? geez whats that !



It happened in the US the last time the markets blew up.

Research ==>> http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=gold+confiscation&btnG=Google+Search&meta=


----------



## MrBurns

wayneL said:


> It happened in the US the last time the markets blew up.
> 
> Research ==>> http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=gold+confiscation&btnG=Google+Search&meta=




Ok thanks - Think I'll buy property instead but I need to wait for the property market to crash, will take up to 12 months if I can wait that long, don't want to wait too long and find the banks are restricting withdrawals if there's a run.

Come to think of it I think the financial crises will come a lot sooner than the expected property crash , it will be a fine balancing act.


----------



## refined silver

MrBurns said:


> Confiscate gold ? geez whats that !




True, but that was in the 30s and only in the US. There's a lot of scare stories running round the internet now. It couldn't be done on a global level now.

If you buy, there's a couple of percent on spread, then depending on how its stored could be a percent or so in storage. Thats very small biccies for the insurance.

However, best bet is to hold it yourself, safety deposit box, or something. If you let someone else hold it, it must be an allocated account, (not a pool account where the institution keeps it all in one pool and works from it, as a few of those are going bust and holders will be left with nothing) 

You also need a lawyer to read the custodial and golding terms to determine 100% that it is fenced off from the holding institition and that in the event of their collapse it cannot be touched by them or their creditors. If you cheap out, now you'll pay much more later.


----------



## Temjin

That's exactly why holding physical silver may be a better choice. They wouldn't confiscate silver because it is just not worth the effort. While they are bulky to "hide" for large amounts, it is a good practice to spread it out. 

But then good luck trying to get physical silver now, especially in the 6 digits range..the spread is even bigger than gold.


----------



## explod

wayneL said:


> It happened in the US the last time the markets blew up.
> 
> Research ==>> http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=gold+confiscation&btnG=Google+Search&meta=




That is not correct, there have been a number of crashes since President Hoover outlawed gold in the US about 1925.   And the price paid to people handing it in still made them a decent profit at the time.

I could not imagine the US doing it again, perhaps China because they hold US dollars, but the big players in the US who are behind the US Senate have been hoarding gold for some time whilst the sheeple play with the monopoly money.

I am sure Waynel that you would be more useful on some other thread.  

And the problem of storing gold is a very small problem compared to the problems elsewhere.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I am sure Waynel that you would be more useful on some other thread.




LOL. Should I leave as well boss?


----------



## wayneL

explod said:


> That is not correct, there have been a number of crashes since President Hoover outlawed gold in the US about 1925.   And the price paid to people handing it in still made them a decent profit at the time.
> 
> I could not *imagine* the US doing it again, perhaps China because they hold US dollars, but the big players in the US who are behind the US Senate have been hoarding gold for some time whilst the sheeple play with the monopoly money.
> 
> I am sure Waynel that you would be more useful on some other thread.
> 
> And the problem of storing gold is a very small problem compared to the problems elsewhere.



errr... you might want to brush up on a few of your facts there explod. 1925??  Try 1933.

I bet there were a few things you didn't imagine last month that happened this month, maybe not. But be careful of the cognitive bias of endowment effect; it's showing through your clothes mate. 

MrBurns asked what he was missing. I let him know two factors. Isn't that helpful? Or would you prefer that all are treat like mushrooms?

Unbelievable.


----------



## MrBurns

wayneL said:


> errr... you might want to brush up on a few of your facts there explod. 1925??  Try 1933.
> 
> I bet there were a few things you didn't imagine last month that happened this month, maybe not. But be careful of the cognitive bias of endowment effect; it's showing through your clothes mate.
> 
> MrBurns asked what he was missing. I let him know two factors. Isn't that helpful? Or would you prefer that all are treat like mushrooms?
> 
> Unbelievable.




For the record I appreciate all help and I'm equally sure Wayne's contributions would be welcome in any thread.


----------



## Ageo

Mr Burns there are many ways of buying gold bullion, going to the big guns are surely gonna attract larger spreads and with all this volatility they will probably stretch them even further.

My suggestion is if your serious then find some of the smaller bullion houses where the spread is minimal (as they buy 2ndhand jewellery, refine it then on sell the bullion) these guys have less overheads and can afford to sell at better prices. I know because im in the jewellery industry and thats where i buy it from if i need it.

As for storing well 10kg of pure gold is around $350,000 so a small strong safe tucked away somewhere would be fine and you can insure through various insurance companies (overall it would be less then to leave it at a bullion house for storage as they charge you for everything).

If you reall wanna save goto jewellers or pawnbrokers that have 24ct gold jewellery and buy it off them for well below the spot price, then all you need to do is melt it and store it.

There are always different paths to take, its choosing the right 1 for you that will make a difference.

Hope this helps


----------



## wayneL

Ageo said:


> If you reall wanna save goto jewellers or pawnbrokers that have 24ct gold jewellery and buy it off them for well below the spot price, then all you need to do is melt it and store it.
> 
> There are always different paths to take, its choosing the right 1 for you that will make a difference.
> 
> Hope this helps



Ageo,

Interesting point there.

1/ Is it possible for a private person to refine gold alloy to pure (or near pure)? If so what is the process?

2/ If not, is it worth buying second hand jewelery (9 & 18 ct) where the price is cheaper than the gold content? How does one realize the value of the gold. How does one determine the gold content of a block of melted down jewelery?


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> Ageo,
> 
> Interesting point there.
> 
> 1/ Is it possible for a private person to refine gold alloy to pure (or near pure)? If so what is the process?




Yeah, here too.

I just realised I had an old signet ring that my granny gave me in the 70's.

I stopped wearing it because it wore too thin and nearly broke. It looks like 9C stamped on it. Not sure of the weight, but must be at least 5 or 6 grams or 2 grams of gold in it worth 50 or $60 at todays values... 2 or 3 hundred in a year or two maybe. 

...and hmm there's a red stone mounted in it... looks a lot like a ruby too... might be worth same again!

Gees I luv my late granny.


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> As for storing well 10kg of pure gold is around $350,000 so a small strong safe tucked away somewhere would be fine and you can insure through various insurance companies (overall it would be less then to leave it at a bullion house for storage as they charge you for everything).
> 
> If you reall wanna save goto jewellers or pawnbrokers that have 24ct gold jewellery and buy it off them for well below the spot price, then all you need to do is melt it and store it.
> 
> There are always different paths to take, its choosing the right 1 for you that will make a difference.
> 
> Hope this helps




To store 30 kilogrammes in a secure bank vault costs about $250 per annum.

9 carat cannot be rescued by reprocessing.   18ct can.   A small foundry in any of the inducstrial areas would assist in making your own gold coins blocks atc.  I would and have contemplated doing it myself.  If the price of bullion goes anywhere near some of the higher predictions it may be well worth it.,


----------



## cuttlefish

MrBurns said:


> I think it's now time to buy physical gold but I need reassurance, that's honesty for you.
> 
> I'm about to call the Perth Mint and put a 6 figure sum into phyical gold.
> 
> Is there anything I've missed ?







			
				Whiskers said:
			
		

> but once the 'plan' is on the table and everyone knows what it is, I'd expect gold to correct back for a few days even below current levels, probably into the 800's again




If this 6 figure sum consitutes 'all your eggs' then I'd question the wisdom of putting them all in one basket.  Even if it isn't, there's a few good reasons to phase the entry.  Firsly whiskers point above - in the short term the perception that the bailout has removed the risk could cause a short term pullback in the gold price.  Overall though I think its highly inflationary for the US and will contribute to USD decline in the longer term.

In relation to the govt logging the purchase - if you buy over $10,000 worth then you have to fill out heavier paperwork issued by the federal government under the anti money laundering/anti terrorism legislation - so if you're paranoid its better to buy in under $10k lots.  (you still have to fill out paper work - but it apparently stays at the dealer and not to the govt).

Ageo's idea's are interesting.  Seems like there would be no reason someone couldn't refine their own gold.

quick web search - first hit gave me this:  http://www.shorinternational.com/RefineStart.htm  and this GoldRefiningForum.com

This is all sounding a bit paranoid now though ...


----------



## Ageo

wayneL said:


> Ageo,
> 
> Interesting point there.
> 
> 1/ Is it possible for a private person to refine gold alloy to pure (or near pure)? If so what is the process?
> 
> 2/ If not, is it worth buying second hand jewelery (9 & 18 ct) where the price is cheaper than the gold content? How does one realize the value of the gold. How does one determine the gold content of a block of melted down jewelery?




Ok 1st up

1/ yes it is possible but hardly worth the effort (hence i said buy 24ct which is already pure and it doesnt need refining just melting into a bar). The process is intense and the best method would be chemical reaction (yes i have refined and its the best method for small scale stuff) but as i said not worth it to a normal individual.

2/ it is much better to buy 2ndhand jewellery as it is then on sell it to a buyer. In my business what i do is buy all 2nd hand jewellery from private people, to business's etc... the pricing structure is quite simple but it vary's from people but i will give you an idea:

Say you have 100grms of 9ct gold well todays AU spot is 1056 per ounce so you need to divide that into grams (1056 / 31.1 which is the conversion), that will give you 33.96 so the 24ct fine gold price is $33.96 per gram. Now times 33.96 by 0.375 (37.5% purity for 9ct) and it will give you $12.73

Now $12.73 is the spot price for 9ct but no1 will give you that as their is a spread in their, plus refining fee's etc.. but today i paid someone for their 9ct @ $10.80 which is a very competitive price since bullion houses and places like cash converters are offering $5-$8 per gram on 9ct.

And to answer your question about testing the value of the gold content in a melted block, we use an XRF machine that mining site's use, it determines all the precious metals in % thats in your item (not cheap about $80,000 or so).


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> To store 30 kilogrammes in a secure bank vault costs about $250 per annum.




Thats incorrect 9ct can most definately be refined into pure gold. I have done it many times

As for the other suggested refining your own gold well the really only other option is to send it off to a refiner but then you will see what sharks they are (fee's, giving you less amount of gold etc...)

I have found if you have 2nd hand gold (or any gold for that matter) your better off selling it as it is. But remember shop around as the prices vary, all i was suggesting before was if you could get your hands on a few kilo's of 24ct gold jewellery then you could just simply melt it (with a oxy) and pour it off into a bar form, then store it. There is alot that can be done with gold and other precious metals (not just trading them on paper). Hope this helps


----------



## fordxbt

"honey what are you doing to my wedding ring?"

"Oh just melting it down in preparation for the inevitable collapse of the world economy"

%^&@$%*&~#$~@%^&~@#$

^^ thats every man getting his ass kicked ^^


----------



## Paladin

Bear in mind how tiny a market segment Gold is and what a comparatively small amount of investment from somewhere like China could do to the market. Then watch:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=865880359&play=1


----------



## refined silver

Um, excuse me everyone, but the theatre is on fire. Now if everyone slowly and calmly rises and moves slowly to the exits, avoiding the falling flaming beams and curtains, we can all get out safely with no-one hurt.



> Asia Needs Deal to Prevent Panic Selling of U.S. Debt, Yu Says
> By Kevin Hamlin
> 
> Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- *Japan, China and other holders of U.S. government debt must quickly reach an agreement to prevent panic sales leading to a global financial collapse,* said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank.
> 
> ``We are in the same boat, we must cooperate,'' Yu said in an interview in Beijing on Sept. 23. ``If there's no selling in a panicked way, then China willingly can continue to provide our financial support by continuing to hold U.S. assets.''
> 
> An agreement is needed so that no nation rushes to sell, ``causing a collapse,'' Yu said. Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury bills, holding $593 billion, and China is second with $519 billion. Asian countries together hold half of the $2.67 trillion total held by foreign nations.
> 
> China, Japan, South Korea and others should meet soon to seal a deal, said Yu, a former academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee. The talks should involve finance ministers, central bank governors and even national leaders, he said.
> 
> ``Whether some kind of agreement between them to continue to hold Treasury bills is viable, I'm not sure,'' said James McCormack, head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Ltd in Hong Kong. ``It would be unusual. If it became apparent that sovereigns in Asia were selling Treasuries the market would take that quite badly, it's something to be avoided...''
> 
> China's huge holdings of U.S. debt means it must bear a large proportion of the ``burden of sorting things out'' in the U.S., Yu said. China is not in a hurry to dump its U.S. holdings and communication between the two nations every ``couple of days'' is keeping Chinese leaders informed and helping to avoid a potential panic, he added.
> 
> ``*China is very worried about the safety of its assets,'' *he said. ``If you want China to keep calm, you must ensure China that its assets are safe.''




I'm all for trading trends, but somtimes in markets like life, there is discontinuity, and sudden change. 

Everyone has speculated on when foreigners would start to unload US paper, now they are talking about it -urgently!

"I won't run for the door, if you don't....!"


----------



## Temjin

Paladin said:


> Bear in mind how tiny a market segment Gold is and what a comparatively small amount of investment from somewhere like China could do to the market. Then watch:
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=865880359&play=1




This is an interesting interview. 

On one hand, you see Jing Ulrich is trying to talk up gold by merely saying China will diversify its reserve through investing in euro, yen and GOLD. On the other hand, you have Amanda seem to be acting as she is "reluctant" to move on to the topic of "buying gold". This is especially true when Jing has mentioned about buying gold THREE times during the interview and every follow up questions by Amanda seem to be "diverting" the topic to something else. 

Bloody CNBC must be a slave dog for those who pay them to talk down gold anywhere they can.  

Funny though, JPMorgan Securities is also a big shorter of gold. So Jing was saying something AGAINST the interest of her company. 

Do anyone feel the reaction from Amanda?? Or it's just me?


----------



## refined silver

Temjin said:


> This is an interesting interview.
> 
> Bloody CNBC must be a slave dog for those who pay them to talk down gold anywhere they can.
> 
> Funny though, JPMorgan Securities is also a big shorter of gold. So Jing was saying something AGAINST the interest of her company.
> 
> Do anyone feel the reaction from Amanda?? Or it's just me?




True about CNBC.

The usual gold shorts JPM, Goldman, etc are at their least short, for a very long time.



> The work of Adrian Douglas, GATA consultant and frequent contributor to LeMetropolecafe.com.  Douglas’ work follows the Gold position of Goldman Sachs [a surrogate of the Federal Reserve] on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].
> 
> Douglas has reported on Goldman’s daily TOCOM gold futures position changes for almost 3 years.
> 
> *With Goldman Sachs representing a defacto surrogate of the Federal Reserve, it is clear that the Fed is moving from being “overextended short” to flat – or possibly going long gold.*
> 
> I believe this transition is critically important, much like a fuse burning toward explosives.When this position crosses over from short to long, as I expect it will sometime this month, I expect that some large deafening bells will be ringing – somewhere.
> 
> Well, I’d like to report that last night [as of Sept. 24, 2008], Goldman Sachs has further reduced their “short gold position” by over one thousand contracts on TOCOM to “net” 624 contracts short – from a high water mark of more than 50,000 contracts short a couple of years ago.
> 
> I now surmise that the “lit fuse” referred to above, is actually a count-down to the imminent imposition of “RECEIVERSHIP of the U.S.A” by a multi-national group of creditors.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some things just are not adding up? Constant, almost daily information alluding to the scarcity of physical, yet the gold price just biding it's time. It's either going to do a moon shot or gather dust as a relic of the money/fiat currency wars for the rest of time - this week will be interesting.



> *Gold and silver dealer reports an ‘unprecedented’ shortage of metals *
> Sunday, September 28, 2008 By David Clerkin, Markets Correspondent
> 
> A surge for demand in gold and silver has resulted in an unprecedented shortage of the metals for retail investors in recent days, according to Gold and Silver Investments, a Dublin-based firm that allows retail investors to speculate on movements in the value of precious metals.
> 
> Gold and Silver Investments director Mark O’Byrne said the supply of gold and silver available for small retail investors suffered a dramatic deterioration within hours on Friday, as wholesalers reported that government mints and refiners, the primary suppliers of the metals, had stopped offering new supplies.
> 
> ‘‘It’s absolutely unprecedented,” said O’Byrne, who said the shortages were likely to drive up the costs of gold and silver in the secondary market.
> 
> ‘‘This did not happen even in the 1930s and the 1970s, and will result in markedly higher prices in the coming months.”
> 
> According to O’Byrne, *gold and silver were now only easily accessible in the primary market, which consisted of central banks and other major traders of the precious metals*.
> 
> However, he said that minimum transaction sizes in this market were out of reach for most retail investors - at approximately $350,000 for gold and $135,000 for silver.




http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=MARKETS-qqqm=nav-qqqid=36223-qqqx=1.asp


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Some things just are not adding up? Constant, almost daily information alluding to the scarcity of physical, yet the gold price just biding it's time. It's either going to do a moon shot or gather dust as a relic of the money/fiat currency wars for the rest of time - this week will be interesting.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=MARKETS-qqqm=nav-qqqid=36223-qqqx=1.asp




Visited a Pawnbroker I know in the City (Melb) at the weekend.  He told me to forget gold.  Silver will leave it in its tracks when it all moves up.  Apparently supplies are virtually non-existent against an enourmous demand both industrially and investment wise.  And the cartels are loaded to go long.  He says a 5 to 1 ratio for gold silver will occur soon.   Not sure if that means gold down Uncle but gold in the last month has been about the only thing to go up.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> Some things just are not adding up? Constant, almost daily information alluding to the scarcity of physical, yet the gold price just biding it's time. It's either going to do a moon shot or gather dust as a relic of the money/fiat currency wars for the rest of time - this week will be interesting.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=MARKETS-qqqm=nav-qqqid=36223-qqqx=1.asp




Yeah, it's all been a bit confusing in terms of which way things will bounce.

Not sure yet, but from a FA perspective (which my EW looks like it may support) I'm inclined to think the recent shrinkage of oil stockpiles will give oil a little spike to finish off the current correction, wave C, towards 120ish probably after this US rescue package is signed and everyone thinks all is ok for awhile.

The gold chart is less clear, but taking a lead from oil, I think a little kick in gold over 900 again corresponding with the spike in oil, before oil continues it's primary downtrend and gold has a minor correction before resuming the primary uptrend later on lack of supply.

If that plan works out I'll take some profits on the top and restock when gold corrects back.

I don't think we'll see another huge spike up until after it finishes this wave 5 maybe to just above 915 and corrects back a bit and gets into leg 3 a bit.


----------



## refined silver

From Financial Times:



> European central banks have cut their sales of gold to the lowest level in almost a decade, reversing the practice of recent years when hefty sales helped depress prices.
> 
> Institutions bound by the Central Bank Gold Agreement – the banks of the eurozone plus Sweden and Switzerland – sold about 343 tonnes of gold in the year that expired on Friday, the lowest amount since the first CBGA was signed in 1999.




Duh! Some people starting to realise the safest thing in the world for reserves is not USD denominated paper!

If they do stop selling thats another 500 tonnes a year of supply or about 20% of world supply thats gone.


----------



## rederob

Whiskers said:


> The gold chart is less clear, but taking a lead from oil, I think a little kick in gold over 900 again corresponding with the spike in oil, before oil continues it's primary downtrend and gold has a minor correction before resuming the primary uptrend later on lack of supply.



Just to be clear, oil is in primary uptrend, with a short term retrace. 
There is a huge surplus of above ground gold that can meet demand for decades to come without straining the supply chain.
There is likely to be an oil supply deficit within 3 years, with a critical shortage probable within 5 years.
The issue with gold is whether or not central bank sales ramp up in the medium term because fiat money cannot confidently be bought into.


----------



## BentRod

Seems like Gold is setting up for a breakout of an ascending triangle on the Hourlies.


----------



## Temjin

Gold defy common sense today! After reading the bailout plan being rejected, I was expecting a huge rise in USD and a corresponding drop in POG. However, the correlation did not happen as expected and while USD did drop, POG rose instead!!!! 

Silver also stagnate in last night trading, so again, decouped from the "general" safe haven buying of gold. 

Interesting time indeed.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Gold defy common sense today! After reading the bailout plan being rejected, I was expecting a huge rise in USD and a corresponding drop in POG.
> Interesting time indeed.





Do not get your rationale.   I have found that in uncertain times gold goes up as it did, some people see it as a safe haven.  There will of course always be those who dont' but the ones that do will drive the price as the gold market is but a small one.

Would be interested in the reasons for your statement Temjin ?


----------



## Temjin

explod said:


> Do not get your rationale. I have found that in uncertain times gold goes up as it did, some people see it as a safe haven. There will of course always be those who dont' but the ones that do will drive the price as the gold market is but a small one.
> 
> Would be interested in the reasons for your statement Temjin ?




I guess the reasons were simply. Bailout plan failed (for now) = possible deflation = good for the USD = bad for gold. 

Of course, that was my believes. Mr Market is always right at the end. I may have made a tidy profit from this, but I was surprised by the reaction last night. hehe


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> Visited a Pawnbroker I know in the City (Melb) at the weekend.  He told me to forget gold.  Silver will leave it in its tracks when it all moves up.  Apparently supplies are virtually non-existent against an enourmous demand both industrially and investment wise.  And the cartels are loaded to go long.  He says a 5 to 1 ratio for gold silver will occur soon.   Not sure if that means gold down Uncle but gold in the last month has been about the only thing to go up.





Explod i have many pawnbroking customers and to be quite frank they all talk ****


----------



## bean

Well I wonder if its that time of year for is gold Bugs


with predictions from the K-cycle (Kondratieff). The heart of the winter phase is marked by the fall/deflation of all assets except the primary currency (US$) and gold (supposed to include gold based equities). Initially the gold miners fall with the GM (K-cycle winter period where all assets deflate) until the 'winter' demarcation point of the K-cycle. This demarcation point, where gold and the GM separate is supposed to be dramatic (which presupposes a period with severe asset deflation (ie:market crash period).


----------



## BentRod

And all that BS translates to??

Get short on Gold ? :


----------



## Whiskers

Don't want to add fuel to any 'crash' scenerios, but it looks by my countin as though the next stop for gold is about 810ish.

Also USD index seems to be going up again equating to better returns in AUD. Also I've got oil backing up to about 110-15ish before carring on falling... not sure to where... looking at some long term counts and sub 20 seems not out of the question.

Oh., rederob... re oil "primary" trend... yeah argueably the super long trend is up, but for me it's going down for at least a few months yet improving our production costs.

Anyone got different view?

Kauri, how's your wave count goin?


----------



## chops_a_must

Your wave count on gold makes no sense as always Whiskers.

Even to a casual oberserver of EW.


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> Your wave count on gold makes no sense as always Whiskers.
> 
> Even to a casual oberserver of EW.




Well, what in particular makes no sense to you chops? ... and I'll try to explain. 

It's been workin OK for me lately. Is it that you don't understand EW per se or just don't like my count? :

PS: Chops, the top chart is gold, the other is the USD index.


----------



## chops_a_must

Your labelled C to me could only be a 1 from where I'm sitting.


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> Your labelled C to me could only be a 1 from where I'm sitting.




Ordinairly, it would be as kauri's count was I think... last I saw he was looking like ending a 5 where my B is.

But from my progressive count from the 1030 high I ended up with an Expanded Flat 3, 3, 5 to start the wave *3* off.

It's not set in stone, but so far it's been working for me. That being the case we are in for a generally more gradual rise in the POG for a few months or so cos it most likely would be wave one of a diag triangle where wave one and four must overlap and five cannot be the longest... as opposed to a regular impulse such as the recent steep rises to the peaks in gold and oil.


----------



## IFocus

Whiskers admire your continued persistence but for the life of me I cannot see how you get the blue 2.


----------



## nunthewiser

Whiskers said:


> Don't want to add fuel to any 'crash' scenerios, but it looks by my countin as though the next stop for gold is about 810ish.
> 
> Also USD index seems to be going up again equating to better returns in AUD. Also I've got oil backing up to about 110-15ish before carring on falling... not sure to where... looking at some long term counts and sub 20 seems not out of the question.
> 
> Oh., rederob... re oil "primary" trend... yeah argueably the super long trend is up, but for me it's going down for at least a few months yet improving our production costs.
> 
> Anyone got different view?
> 
> Kauri, how's your wave count goin?





no chart attached but using pencil and paper anaylsis , gold 910 next , opposite to your call of 810 ish ....... usd 78 opposite your call .... time tells all 

ps is that your call or an EW general consensus call ?


----------



## Whiskers

IFocus said:


> Whiskers admire your continued persistence but for the life of me I cannot see how you get the blue 2.




Sorry about that, IFocus... I forgot to tack on the legend.

As best I can tell so far the 1030 high was the end of cycle *1* and we've had an (a) (b) (c), the next lower degree, correction for cycle *2*.



nunthewiser said:


> no chart attached but using pencil and paper anaylsis , gold 910 next , opposite to your call of 810 ish ....... usd 78 opposite your call .... time tells all
> 
> ps is that your call or an EW general consensus call ?




My EW is used for range finding guided by my FA and other TA. I understand that's how Elliot originally used it.

My 810 is my target to finish the correction, ie I don't expect it to take out a new high, but it could revisit 910 again. Likewise for oil, 84 to finish off the larger degree wave.

If someone has a 'better' count, I'm open...


----------



## nunthewiser

On your chart below you are clearly indicating that your analysis indicates as golds next move will be to 810 and the usd to 84 ..is this the case you are stating ?


----------



## SBH

Sorry for such a newbie question - but does anyone here want to give advice on the best method to buy gold? (The online variety - I dont want a gold bar in my lounge room). I know the asx has a way to do it through a fund called GOLD, traded like any other stock, and then there are online options too like Bullion fund. Whats the best option??
Really want to get some gold before we destroy our dollar with a big ole rate cut AND the world realises the commodity boom is over... down down down aussie dollar... up up up gold


----------



## Whiskers

nunthewiser said:


> On your chart below you are clearly indicating that your analysis indicates as golds next move will be to 810 and the usd to 84 ..is this the case you are stating ?




Yes, but not litterally the next move from where it is now for the next few minutes. 

As I pointed out they are my targets to complete the current larger degree waves... the price will swing around as the minor degree wave's progress and pan out.


----------



## nunthewiser

ok thanks ....... time tells all . my calls there too , not a contest sorry if it coming out that way , just pointing out that my anylasis and your anylasis are in opposite directions as described by your chart , 

have a great evening


----------



## Ageo

SBH said:


> Sorry for such a newbie question - but does anyone here want to give advice on the best method to buy gold? (The online variety - I dont want a gold bar in my lounge room).




Im no expert on paper gold but i know you can trade it via leveraged instruments (like futures or CFD's). Unleveraged gold trading im not aware of.


----------



## Trembling Hand

SBH said:


> Sorry for such a newbie question - but does anyone here want to give advice on the best method to buy gold? (The online variety - I dont want a gold bar in my lounge room). I know the asx has a way to do it through a fund called GOLD, traded like any other stock, and then there are online options too like Bullion fund. Whats the best option??
> Really want to get some gold before we destroy our dollar with a big ole rate cut AND the world realises the commodity boom is over... down down down aussie dollar... up up up gold




SBH it depends on how much yo want to by as to what is the best way to jump on...

And why not have it in your lounge room. Gold bas make great beer coasters.


----------



## nomore4s

Trembling Hand said:


> And why not have it in your lounge room. Gold bars make great beer coasters.




And a good paper weight too.


----------



## IFocus

Whiskers said:


> Sorry about that, IFocus... I forgot to tack on the legend.
> 
> As best I can tell so far the 1030 high was the end of cycle *1* and we've had an (a) (b) (c), the next lower degree, correction for cycle *2*.
> 
> 
> 
> My EW is used for range finding guided by my FA and other TA. I understand that's how Elliot originally used it.
> 
> My 810 is my target to finish the correction, ie I don't expect it to take out a new high, but it could revisit 910 again. Likewise for oil, 84 to finish off the larger degree wave.
> 
> If someone has a 'better' count, I'm open...




Whiskers can I suggest you pop over to the Chartist and see if Nick still has 1 months subscription, there are lots of charts both current and past marked up using EW with a commentary he has a current gold chart marked up. It could fast track your progress certainly did for me at least.


----------



## cuttlefish

SBH said:


> Sorry for such a newbie question - but does anyone here want to give advice on the best method to buy gold? (The online variety - I dont want a gold bar in my lounge room). I know the asx has a way to do it through a fund called GOLD, traded like any other stock, and then there are online options too like Bullion fund. Whats the best option??
> Really want to get some gold before we destroy our dollar with a big ole rate cut AND the world realises the commodity boom is over... down down down aussie dollar... up up up gold




If you want a tradeable paper equivalent of a direct holding then the ASX GOLD seems pretty good - it tracks the Australian dollar gold price fairly well - its pretty straightforward as far as I can tell - they buy gold in proportion to the units they issue and whack on a small management fee. They publish the gold entitlement monthly I think.  I don't think its allocated but could be wrong.  If you want allocated then the Perth mint has products but thats really a physical gold holding and so probably not as tradeable as ASX.GOLD.

If you want proper leverage and currency hedging etc. then futures is probably the best way to go.

I guess you could look at a US based ETF if you want to track USD gold price instead of AUD gold price.


----------



## noirua

Still heading for US$1,000 per oz despite the strong US$. Aussie gold stocks should do well with the Aussie$ down over 20%.


----------



## mazzatelli1000

Whiskers said:


> If someone has a 'better' count, I'm open...




Hey Whiskers, 

I'm no expert on EW, but I thought I'd like to share my experience with it. I have found that there is a tendency when applying EW, I would forcefully apply a count even when it made no sense. 

For one or two of your posts I have seen that. Hopefully it will be something you will be aware of. 

Good luck with it!!!!


----------



## nunthewiser

Well Done whiskers nice call , cant be accused of hindsight  analysis.

cheers


----------



## Kauri

(DAILIES )...the way I have posted and been following the yella stuff... the last move .. although corrrective... doesn't really look straight-forward to me..  as my E/W is purposely basic, just the simple waves without expanded and expounded corrections, nested 1,2's et al, I am waiting for something I can feel comfortable with before committing to the fray again..

  Ooops, sorry Nick... just saw your post... relief on my part that mine rouughly ties in... :walker:

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## nunthewiser

OOPs . sorry whiskers but gonna have to take back half of my congrats  . YOU were spot on on your gold call and for that well done in calling it before the fact BUT looks like my call on the USD a bit closer . either way onya for stickin your neck out before the fact and posting your analysis.
have a nice day


----------



## nunthewiser

Kauri said:


> (DAILIES )...the way I have posted and been following the yella stuff... the last move .. although corrrective... doesn't really look straight-forward to me..  as my E/W is purposely basic, just the simple waves without expanded and expounded corrections, nested 1,2's et al, I am waiting for something I can feel comfortable with before committing to the fray again..
> 
> Ooops, sorry Nick... just saw your post... relief on my part that mine rouughly ties in... :walker:
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Thanks Kauri for posting the chart on what happened , any chance of posting one on what you think Will happen ?
cheers

ps can anyone tell me how i actually post a chart here ? and how do i copy a chart from my trading platform , sorry if sounding naieve but never had to do this before


----------



## Kauri

nunthewiser said:


> Thanks Kauri for posting the chart on what happened , *any chance of posting one on what you think Will happen ?*
> cheers
> 
> ps can anyone tell me how i actually post a chart here ? and how do i copy a chart from my trading platform , sorry if sounding naieve but never had to do this before






Kauri said:


> (DAILIES )...the way I have posted and been following the yella stuff... the last move .. although corrrective... doesn't really look straight-forward to me.. as my E/W is purposely basic, just the simple waves without expanded and expounded corrections, nested 1,2's et al, *I am waiting for something I can feel comfortable with before committing to the fray again..*
> 
> Ooops, sorry Nick... just saw your post... relief on my part that mine rouughly ties in... :walker:
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  Yes... sooner or later..    ... how do *you *see it??

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

nunthewiser said:


> Thanks Kauri for posting the chart on what happened , any chance of posting one on what you think Will happen ?
> cheers
> 
> ps can anyone tell me how i actually post a chart here ? and how do i copy a chart from my trading platform , sorry if sounding naieve but never had to do this before




Ahhh... maybe it's implied because it's a wave 1, that maybe, perhaps just maybe, the call is for it to be going up in the medium term?


----------



## nunthewiser

Kauri said:


> Yes... sooner or later..    ... how do *you *see it??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




i see a bounce from around these levels and to break 910 convincingly.... probably wrong but ya did ask


----------



## nunthewiser

chops_a_must said:


> Ahhh... maybe it's implied because it's a wave 1, that maybe, perhaps just maybe, the call is for it to be going up in the medium term?




 u must have xray vision my good man because from where im sitting i see no calls on the post i was questioning


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Keeping an eye on the bigger picture, as always the weaker hands are being flushed out again, even with the AU gold price still above $1075 after breaching the all time high only days ago. More bargains to be had.

The USDX going for another spurt, only this time gold is some $100 higher than when the USDX was last at 80. Go for it Goldman Sachs!

When all the logical reasons for buying US dollars don't make sense, the obvious reason is maybe the Feds proxies in the Caymans are buying their own trash?



> The flip began with the changing fortunes in the U.S. dollar, after investors bet that the European Central Bank will start cutting it key interest rate, making U.S. rates look relatively more attractive. Another theory is that foreign banks are buying U.S. dollars, after blowing their brains out on U.S.-dollar denominated assets, to pay back depositors.



Wealthy investors (as well as the rest of us) now find that the fall out from Lehmans is having a knock on effect down the line and can't access their money due to funds halting redemptions. 



> In particular, funds of hedge funds servicing wealthy individuals have been bombarded with re-quests for billions of dollars of withdrawals.
> "It is really ugly out there," said one large London hedge fund manager.



So how do you store wealth now? $2 houses on eBay perhaps?


----------



## Whiskers

nunthewiser said:


> OOPs . sorry whiskers but gonna have to take back half of my congrats  . YOU were spot on on your gold call and for that well done in calling it before the fact BUT looks like my call on the USD a bit closer . either way onya for stickin your neck out before the fact and posting your analysis.
> have a nice day




Sorry... nah, I was right on both counts. The USD index has risen to over 80. 

You're not  getting confused with the AUD/USD are you?


----------



## nunthewiser

Whiskers said:


> Sorry... nah, I was right on both counts. The USD index has risen to over 80.
> 
> You're not  getting confused with the AUD/USD are you?




yes i did actually , my mistake . good call


----------



## Whiskers

IFocus said:


> Whiskers can I suggest you pop over to the Chartist and see if Nick still has 1 months subscription, there are lots of charts both current and past marked up using EW with a commentary he has a current gold chart marked up. It could fast track your progress certainly did for me at least.




Well thanks for the tip mate... but err, seems like I'm on a bit of a run atm. I pretty well agree with Nick's analysis, except for the wave (c) count. 

I would guess that Nick and Kauri's data is coming from a different source, maybe comex contracts. Perhaps they will confirm.

I've noticed some variation between LGE and COMEX at times. My count doesn't look like it'll work on Nick's chart. 

As I mentioned earlier, on my chart the expanded Flat looks right to start a diag triangle cycle *3*, ie probably a more gradual or volatile rise than the steep impulsive count up to the 1030 high. If my count is correct, wave (4) should revisit 925 sometime down the track.

Mind you since my cycle *2* did not penetrate the territory of the lower degree wave (4) (2006 high) it should still be a fairly good rise. 

From an FA view that sounds reasonable given the amount of funds that were sloshing around before as compared to the future. I reckon the near term rises will be more to do with lack of supply kicking in than inflationary safe haven.

I'll tell ya what... if Nick (or you) can catch me out with a wrong (price) forecast, I'll seriously consider subscribing. 



mazzatelli1000 said:


> Hey Whiskers,
> 
> I'm no expert on EW, but I thought I'd like to share my experience with it. I have found that there is a tendency when applying EW, I would forcefully apply a count even when it made no sense.
> 
> For one or two of your posts I have seen that. Hopefully it will be something you will be aware of.
> 
> Good luck with it!!!!




Yeah thanks mazzatelli. It's always a bit difficult to get the count right. sometimes, err often I paste the last count as soon as it may be applicable and move it accordingly... but now when I do that I try to remember to put the ? against it until it's proven. 



nunthewiser said:


> yes i did actually , my mistake . good call




Yeah and at least we're on the same page re the AUD.


----------



## chops_a_must

Whiskers said:


> Well thanks for the tip mate... but err, seems like I'm on a bit of a run atm. I pretty well agree with Nick's analysis, except for the wave (c) count.



Yeah, I don't get that.

Nicks is an inherently bullish call, whereas yours is an inherently bearish call on the EW, with the way you've done it there...


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> Yeah, I don't get that.
> 
> Nicks is an inherently bullish call, whereas yours is an inherently bearish call on the EW, with the way you've done it there...




Nick's is certainly more bullish than me... but I'm only mildly bearish or passive, in the short term until this abc folds out to A then  B and C for (2). 

My view, as mentioned somewhere earlier, is that the POG should move roughly sideways in the 800's for some time yet... partly due to a lack of buying pressure and the pretty severe revaluation of major currencies. 

Uncertain times, I suspect gold will just mark time for awhile until some certainty of direction in the economy emerges.


----------



## chops_a_must

Whiskers said:


> Nick's is certainly more bullish than me... but I'm only mildly bearish in the short term until this abc folds out to A then  B and C for (2).



No, the way you have set it out is that the next move down will be (i) in a wave 3 down.


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> No, the way you have set it out is that the next move down will be (i) in a wave 3 down.






Nooo... something like this.


----------



## chops_a_must

Whiskers said:


> Nooo... something like this.




I'm sorry.

It's just too incoherent for it to be followed...


----------



## barrett

Whiskers said:


> Nooo... something like this.




Whiskers, you labelled the top of the recent price spike with a big C - were we meant to interpret that as bullish?


----------



## explod

One has to admire the patience and persistance of the Elliot Wave proponenets but it seems at times that the gold thread is being used more as a formum to backtest and bounce off all and sundry for those wanting to master the method more than talk on subject.

There is a dedicated thread for EW which I do follow as one of my favourite people is Robert Prechter, an expert of renown on Elliot Wave theory.

Gold is very much about politics/currencies or, if you like, the fundamental world stage.   The 10 year gold chart shows gold in a long term up trend and in the last 12 months the gain is 16% 

Gold sales desks world wide are reporting huge public sales and the depletion of stock.   The big days for gold bugs must be close by.

Although, as I have always believed, it will probably not be allowed to bolt till after the Presidential election.  Only a month away now though.


----------



## Whiskers

barrett said:


> Whiskers, you labelled the top of the recent price spike with a big C - were we meant to interpret that as bullish?




Oh, I see where you're getting confused now.

The first wave (1) is an expanded Flat ABC, which is a corrective pattern, but as I said I expect a dia triangle pattern to play out. In a diag triangle, wave one can be a corrective pattern, in fact all waves can be corrective patterns as opposed to a regular impulse where only two and four can be a corrective pattern. The main feature is that wave four must overlap (or within 10% of) wave two whereas in a regular impulse wave four cannot overlap wave two.


----------



## barrett

Okay Whiskers.  How about the big story of last night though, have you guys ever seen anything like this?  It certainly needs some consideration.. is it the end of a shakeout  (since selling volume in most stocks was much lower than on last week's rally)....  or are the stocks telling us gold is about to take a huge bath?  I mean this is bloody extraordinary, the _biggest_ gold stocks in the world down _15%, 18%, 23% in a night_!


----------



## IFocus

Its the one thing I currently don't get

There hasn't been a larger threat to general wealth world wide in my life time than currently exists.

Yet gold just treads water........


----------



## Whiskers

barrett said:


> Okay Whiskers.  How about the big story of last night though, have you guys ever seen anything like this?  It certainly needs some consideration.. is it the end of a shakeout  (since selling volume in most stocks was much lower than on last week's rally)....  or are the stocks telling us gold is about to take a huge bath?  I mean this is bloody extraordinary, the _biggest_ gold stocks in the world down _15%, 18%, 23% in a night_!




Not exactly sure what to make of gold stock prices... apart from traders/investors struggling to stay liquid... even main stream otherwise healthy businesses that could normally rely on a short term overdraft etc are now facing rejection of their applications. 

From news reports, there's a fair bit of liquidating assets of all sorts even by the wealthiest at the moment to meet current expenses. There was a story on the TV news last night, a big boat builder in SE Qld having to lay off a hundred or so people because a lot of orders, including some big luxury orders that he thought were firm, have been cancelled recently... even though many has commenced construction.

But as my analysis suggests, wave (4) looks likely to revisit 925'ish sometime down the track. That's one to watch out for, since probably about the new year gold will kick off wave (3) which could run to something like 1,400'ish. 

Ok... I'll give ya my crystal ball gazing.  The stock markets should rebound a good chunk of this correction during the next few months, maybe year... then I think we might get some more slowing in world growth and the rest of all the credit crunch/debt issues start to wash out and another down leg in the markets to finish off the larger degree correction. By then new gold production should have started to seriously kick in facing oversupply and retrace (4) back to current levels.


----------



## Nyden

IFocus said:


> Its the one thing I currently don't get
> 
> There hasn't been a larger threat to general wealth world wide in my life time than currently exists.
> 
> Yet gold just treads water........




Spot on.

Surely it's already apparent enough that we're in quite a mess here; so why hasn't gold taken off yet? Do cities need to start rioting, and missiles begin firing before gold actually does something? More importantly, if it becomes evident to people that gold is *not* the save haven / doomsday insurance it once was; what's keeping it from plummeting into the abyss?

 ... I stand by my belief that gold is a relic


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Spot on.
> 
> Surely it's already apparent enough that we're in quite a mess here; so why hasn't gold taken off yet? Do cities need to start rioting, and missiles begin firing before gold actually does something? More importantly, if it becomes evident to people that gold is *not* the save haven / doomsday insurance it once was; what's keeping it from plummeting into the abyss?
> 
> ... I stand by my belief that gold is a relic




Well why then does it keep going up, 16% the last 12 months?

Gold has been a store of wealth for 6000 years.  A relic maybe but the market is so small that it only takes a few relic followers to keep it going up.   With everything else going down maybe a few more will get the idea too and so up a bit more it will go.


----------



## Nyden

explod said:


> Well why then does it keep going up, 16% the last 12 months?
> 
> Gold has been a store of wealth for 6000 years.  A relic maybe but the market is so small that it only takes a few relic followers to keep it going up.   With everything else going down maybe a few more will get the idea too and so up a bit more it will go.




16% in 12 months is nothing - at least when you consider what has been happening in these last 12 months? Is this not the economic meltdown the gold-bugs have been wishing for? Where are the fireworks? 

Let's not forget the fact that gold can and *has* at one point dropped near on 10% in one session! When a years gains can be wiped out in one night; that tells me that this tightly-knit cult of gold-followers perhaps aren't as devout as they once were ...

Had you been short in the market over these last few months ... you most definitely would have made far more than 16%.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> One has to admire the patience and persistance of the Elliot Wave proponenets but it seems at times that the gold thread is being used more as a formum to backtest and bounce off all and sundry for those wanting to master the method more than talk on subject.
> 
> There is a dedicated thread for EW which I do follow as one of my favourite people is Robert Prechter, an expert of renown on Elliot Wave theory.
> 
> Gold is very much about politics/currencies or, if you like, the fundamental world stage. The 10 year gold chart shows gold in a long term up trend and in the last 12 months the gain is 16%
> 
> Gold sales desks world wide are reporting huge public sales and the depletion of stock. The big days for gold bugs must be close by.
> 
> Although, as I have always believed, it will probably not be allowed to bolt till after the Presidential election. Only a month away now though.




  BOLLOCKS....   :alcohol:  

   anti conspirator..  Kauri
   and Cheers


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> BOLLOCKS....   :alcohol:
> 
> anti conspirator..  Kauri
> and Cheers




Show me the Bollocks Kauri, some plain language would be good as well.

And for the other, gold is steady and solid in an otherwise volatile world.  And the big moves will come when the sheep have been properly slaughtered.   I am happy with the 16% per annum for the moment


----------



## BentRod

Hi Explod,
             At what exact price did you buy all your Gold?

Cheers Mate.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Show me the Bollocks Kauri, some plain language would be good as well.




  plain language... ok...  a picture paints a tousand words.. or a conspiracy theorist paints a tousand pictures...   mayhaps..   

 Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> And for the other, *gold is steady and solid *in an otherwise volatile world. And the big moves will come when the sheep have been properly slaughtered. I am happy with the 16% per annum for the moment




   as the driver of the Titanic said..  "Steady as she goes"...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> plain language... ok... a picture paints a tousand words..



LOL

Smart@ss  :bananasmi


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> And the big moves will come when the sheep have been properly slaughtered. I am happy with the 16% per annum for the moment





   and when...  aaahhh... why worry...   after all we are coupling...  decoupling...   derailing.....   being manipulated by the fabled PPT...   victims of concerted CB selling cabals...   a fiat currency....   and  ... whatever...  anyting but a commode to be traded....   and 16% return considering the opportunities that the straight-forward, un-   aaahhh ... what the heel... why bother, real oportunities are passing bye bye whilst I waste time responding...   all the best and a good ....  mmmm  

Cheers
............Kauri :chimney


----------



## Kauri

now I wonder...     what that is...

The latest Wells Fargo/Wachovia news is being digested...

 and what it means ....* now*...
  not next (16%) year...
  plurry PPT... cabals... conspirators... CB's... or mayhaps phantoms..

  Cheers
.............Kauri  :microwave


----------



## RobinHood

so who's actually short here?


----------



## BentRod

Depends what time you ask.  :


----------



## Kauri

de US is in recession, UK and Eur are also there...actually if not technically...  German DWS is rocky??,,  the world, according to... umm. Nicolas Sarkozy reckons the world is staring into an abyss...   so... where does Gold go???    must be those interferring coupling-decoupling PPT CB interventionist conspirators sneaking around in the shadows agin...  or nott..  hey... what airline was floating that flight to safety, I just might grab a seat, butttttt ... not for a year.. or three...   I hear thrombosis can set in if you sitttttttttttt for a longgggg whiles and obliviously let the world pass by..

 Cheers
..............Him


----------



## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> Depends what time you ask.  :




Yeah, thought it might go as low as 810... but 820ish may be it... although it might have another go at it when the congress vote comes through.



Kauri said:


> Nicolas Sarkozy reckons the world is staring into an abyss...   so... where does Gold go???    must be those interferring coupling-decoupling *PPT CB interventionist conspirators sneaking around in the shadows agin...   *




I think they're all broke mate... trying their hand at bumming a quid from the taxpayer.


----------



## MRC & Co

IFocus said:


> Its the one thing I currently don't get
> 
> There hasn't been a larger threat to general wealth world wide in my life time than currently exists.
> 
> Yet gold just treads water........




But the bailout?  

Not long now, another hour or so, what will gold do........market looks like it's pretty bullish, maybe it will be passed and market tank?


----------



## cuttlefish

Gold is a hedge.   when things go down they go down quickly (up by the stairs, down by the elevator).  A hedge moves in counterpoint.  Be right, sit tight?   

Look at the DOW rally on the bailout being passed.  Imagine what it would do on good news. 

I'd love it if this bailout worked - its the better social scenario for all - but at the moment I'm not convinced.   I think they'll need more - and now that the government has broken new ground on the size of this bailout the next one might be more pallatable (if another one needed).


----------



## cuttlefish

Dow up minus 34 points right now ... wee iz all saved.  Clearly the market is embracing current conditions   My suggestion ... buy bank stocks



Wow its roared ahead 16 points since I started typing.  (SIXTEEN!!!!)


----------



## cuttlefish

Dow closes down over 150 points after the bailout.  Hardly surprising when the best good news on offer is that the bad news has been postponed.

Hopefully Paulson and Bernanke know more than the market.


----------



## bean

I subscribe to a couple of US based sites.  On there forums the majority are US individuals.  It is amazing the amount of talk over the last week as they are getting prepared for a run on banks.  Similar to Argentina a few years back.
They are stocking up on essentials.
A bank holiday in the US monday week...The possibility it may be extended for a few days.The thought of not being able to use credit cards, cheques going to the ATM and drawing out cash....A system in limbo...Imaging your pay going into the bank and you can't touch it.
Cash or Gold and Silver is the only thing to have.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie100208.html

Gold may have a bit of downward pressure...but the possibility of a .50% rate cut happening in the US and Europe early next week should help when it happens.

For chartists anyone know anything about '3 peaks'
Is the DOW in the process of one of those?


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> plain language... ok...  a picture paints a tousand words.. or a conspiracy theorist paints a tousand pictures...   mayhaps..
> 
> Cheers
> .............Kauri




Good to be pickled and the crapola is tangible.   And human too, lost yer patience mon ami.

Anyway, my rough take

Weekly gold chart forming a large pennant, top is March 08 at US$1,000 and bottom Aug 06 at $640.    Will have to break out within 20 weeks from here which is just about the time the new US admin takes the helm and causes one hell of a problem, or at lest the blame for it.

Dont' see much PPT or conspiracy in the possibilities here.


----------



## IFocus

explod said:


> Good to be pickled and the crapola is tangible.   And human too, lost yer patience mon ami.
> 
> Anyway, my rough take
> 
> Weekly gold chart forming a large pennant, top is March 08 at US$1,000 and bottom Aug 06 at $640.    Will have to break out within 20 weeks from here which is just about the time the new US admin takes the helm and causes one hell of a problem, or at lest the blame for it.
> 
> Dont' see much PPT or conspiracy in the possibilities here.




Explode I don't understand the FA drivers of the gold price but have long read gold bugs talk about its ascendancy given the right conditions which correct me if I am wrong appear to be now.


Main St is fairly aware some thing is amiss, the market knows that the bail out really isn't going to change anything and the risks are frigging massive world wide, this information will arrive at main st any week / month now.

But gold is not at $2000 plus its plugging $800 odd.  

I know its had a nice run up from $250 ish and the current up side to me looks stronger when viewing the chart but that is still to be confirmed and not a given.

Do you or Refined Sliver / Uncle have a view as to its current position and why, not looking for an argument just wondering why.

One thought I had is the wealth around the place is tied up in credit and cannot be transferred to gold easily, but the total gold market is very small in world terms..........


----------



## MRC & Co

^^^

Potential deflation----------> flight to cash?  Perhaps.....but longer term bond yields wouldn't justify this yet.  I always said I think we need to see a run on the banks before gold will really take off to this 2000+ level.  At which point I am sure it would go limit up along the way, so there will always be chances to get in if it does start really gaining upside momentum quickly.  Are we going to see that anytime soon?


----------



## chops_a_must

IFocus said:


> Do you or Refined Sliver / Uncle have a view as to its current position and why, not looking for an argument just wondering why.



The US has said they will be selling gold reserves to pay for a lot of this.

It's certainly one explanation.


----------



## MRC & Co

chops_a_must said:


> The US has said they will be selling gold reserves to pay for a lot of this.
> 
> It's certainly one explanation.




Yep, definately.  Not just their sales, but other traders perceptions of the impact of this upon the POG.  Anyways, I'm off to the lake for a feed.  See you in a tick bud.


----------



## explod

IFocus said:


> Explode I don't understand the FA drivers of the gold price but have long read gold bugs talk about its ascendancy given the right conditions which correct me if I am wrong appear to be now.
> 
> 
> Main St is fairly aware some thing is amiss, the market knows that the bail out really isn't going to change anything and the risks are frigging massive world wide, this information will arrive at main st any week / month now.
> 
> But gold is not at $2000 plus its plugging $800 odd.
> 
> I know its had a nice run up from $250 ish and the current up side to me looks stronger when viewing the chart but that is still to be confirmed and not a given.
> 
> Do you or Refined Sliver / Uncle have a view as to its current position and why, not looking for an argument just wondering why.
> 
> One thought I had is the wealth around the place is tied up in credit and cannot be transferred to gold easily, but the total gold market is very small in world terms..........




My rough take is that the jump of about US$100 about three weeks ago brought out some punters.  It fast became a false break and magins drove them to sell and the HUI dropped near to 20% on Thursday.

Another is a realisation that not only the US but many other nations, particularly those attached to the Euro are in just as big a strife as the US in financials has helped to give strength to the US dollar and the cry on Wall Street is that here is the safe haven for the moment, the mighty US reserve currency.

Another is that the gold bugs are all in, some of it is buy dips sell tops, but in just the same.   The new money got burnt during the US$1,000 blow off in March this year and they have just had another taste.

It is often repeated that a good bull market is a bucking bull which throws off many riders (the weak hands).   A wild bull (as this one is) is hard to predict and it will take awhile for the general market to have the confidence required to take the price up the next few steps.

I have learnt to be conservative towards gold but maintain my long term faith that it is the best safe investment for the forseeable future for me. 

Some have rediculed the idea that gold is politically motivated but I feel strongly that the powers (whoever they may be) are determined to hold the US dollar up as the reserve currency for as long as they can.  Financially it is the last vestige of power they have left.   A strengtheing gold price threatens that.   If you look back at the gold and US dallar charts from about 2002 you will notice that they move very counter to each other.   There is no clearer sign.    IM very HO of course.


----------



## chops_a_must

MRC & Co said:


> Yep, definately.  Not just their sales, but other traders perceptions of the impact of this upon the POG.  Anyways, I'm off to the lake for a feed.  See you in a tick bud.




Lol.

No wonder you were late...


----------



## refined silver

IFocus said:


> But gold is not at $2000 plus its plugging $800 odd.
> 
> Do you or Refined Sliver / Uncle have a view as to its current position and why, not looking for an argument just wondering why.




Its the perrenial case of when does FA take over.

Look at the price of Fannie and Freddie and everyone else a year ago. Many writers were saying they were insolvent then, but the s.p. didn't show it at all. Same situation with gold now but reverse. 

You either get out of Fannie and Freddie cos there're insolvent, or, you wait for TA to tell you its going down and move accordingly. The only problem with the second option is that a few of the financials didn't so much as trend down, but drop in massive chunks overnight. The $100 move in gold a week or two ago showed that the same is possible with gold but in reverse.

Its up to each person to trade/invest according to their own preferred strategy.


----------



## chops_a_must

refined silver said:


> Its up to each person to trade/invest according to their own preferred strategy.



For me, the risks of not being in gold, and it making a big move, are potentially far more catastrophic than precious metals and related going to zero.


----------



## refined silver

chops_a_must said:


> For me, the risks of not being in gold, and it making a big move, are potentially far more catastrophic than precious metals and related going to zero.




The fundamentals are just so absurd, I personally can't see a nice trending move happening, but rather a violent readjustment.

From the Daily Reckoning...



> “*The Federal Reserve has just expanded its balance sheet more in one month than it has in almost all of its first 86 years of existence. *I am not kidding. Its assets, which represent the cumulative reserves the Fed has ‘created,’ totaled less than $700 billion at the turn of the millennium, and *continued to expand by about $50 billion per year after that, up until this month. *
> 
> “*In September alone, reserve bank credit inflated by almost $600 billion. It is a record, and has already affected the monetary base*.
> 
> “Up until September, the Fed has been careful to sterilize its liquidity provisions by selling Treasuries or reverse repos or simply by lending its securities off balance sheet. So while it has extended credit since August 2007, it has not monetized much of the liquidity. But the NET factor of increase to reserve bank credit for the month of September was about $170 billion. That is money created out of thin air… unsterilized.
> 
> *“This number is unprecedented.* It is difficult to predict gold’s short-term response to this shock, but the market cannot ignore the fundamental effect of this crackup for long. With interventions like this, we should get a few more $100-up days soon enough.”


----------



## chops_a_must

refined silver said:


> The fundamentals are just so absurd, I personally can't see a nice trending move happening, but rather a violent readjustment.



Neither can I.

It will be violent either way.

But like I say, being out of gold, or the events that would lead to a massive upward move, would be far more catastrophic for me than being in a large downward move.


----------



## cuttlefish

Yeah I agree with this as well.


----------



## IFocus

chops_a_must said:


> Neither can I.
> 
> It will be violent either way.
> 
> But like I say, being out of gold, or the events that would lead to a massive upward move, would be far more catastrophic for me than being in a large downward move.





Yes of course good point Chops using risk to measure the out comes makes it clear, some thing lost on those that keep buying equities in a bear market in a down trend.

Thanks guys good discussion


----------



## cuttlefish

cuttlefish said:


> Dow up minus 34 points right now ... wee iz all saved.  Clearly the market is embracing current conditions   My suggestion ... buy bank stocks





I certainly hope nobody missed the sarcasm of this comment and mistakenly thinks I was actually recommending buying bank stocks right now.  I wouldn't be buying bank stocks and the only positions I've been taking on banks have been short positions.  (I don't deny the possibility of short term rallies but my long term view is the Aussie banks have a lot more pain to come yet).


----------



## bean

Fundamental are out the door

There is a large disconnect between the physical and the paper.
And its not just Gold
I was listening to Jim Pupavla on financial sense (us)
He mentioned he bought a ton of silver a few months ago from 3 dealers took ten weeks to deliver.  This time had to go to biggest mint for his ton delivery time is 14 weeks.
Also Gasoline inventories in the US are at there lowest levels since 2000
And one State also at the moment has rationing. 


Hopefully
DOW down big Monday.  Then a conjoined effort between the worlds central banks and a .50 interest rate cut?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

IFocus said:


> Do you or Refined Sliver / Uncle have a view as to its current position and why, not looking for an argument just wondering why.




Simply, the _velocity_ of paper money is now a big fat zero! Meaning that the longer and deeper the credit contraction or miss-trust between the worlds fractional reserve administrators is, the longer & deeper the negative contagion will continue for the global economy, and it's inherent wealth destruction and/or transfer.

So in the meantime it's not why gold is a good investment or trade but rather what is a better investment or trade to gold - US dollars/bonds or equities. I think we are at a point of flux while the world holds it's collective breath waiting to see if 'the bailout' works. It won't because it does not address the cause(s) of the problem, rather it attempts to lessen the impacts of the inevitable?

Gold is useless in the sweet spot of inflationary economics ie the period we have just experienced over the last 20 years or so, but the ending has been accompanied by stagflationary forces. Gold has risen on the inflationary part of this? The transition to a deflationary environment is being heralded by massive repositioning, into and out of the latest asset flavour of the month, with massive daily price fluctuations as witnessed, but for gold at least still relatively at a higher level now when compared to the US DX over the period from the low.

In the final analysis, gold does well in inflationary times as the CB's try to re inflate their way out of the mess (as per usual custom), but in the deflationary spiral we are about to enter gold does/will do spectacularly well simply because nothing else is going up in 'value' ie deflating. Simplistic but logical to me at least? The final nail will be if the US DX does finally capitulate inferring one super stagflationary final blow off top for commodities, in a world that can't afford them anyway. And maybe why there is concerted intervention by the worlds central banks to prop the collar up because the alternative is much worse than what we have now?

Double top for the US DX, both gold & the Dow in 4 figures (Dow will finally price in a real economy recession that is well under way!) before the year is over?


----------



## CanOz

I'm going to give this trade a go tomorrow night. GLD ETF - Bullish wedge.

Box of ale says it jumps over my limit order.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## IFocus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Simply, the _velocity_ of paper money is now a big fat zero! Meaning that the longer and deeper the credit contraction or miss-trust between the worlds fractional reserve administrators is, the longer & deeper the negative contagion will continue for the global economy, and it's inherent wealth destruction and/or transfer.
> 
> So in the meantime it's not why gold is a good investment or trade but rather what is a better investment or trade to gold - US dollars/bonds or equities. I think we are at a point of flux while the world holds it's collective breath waiting to see if 'the bailout' works. It won't because it does not address the cause(s) of the problem, rather it attempts to lessen the impacts of the inevitable?
> 
> Gold is useless in the sweet spot of inflationary economics ie the period we have just experienced over the last 20 years or so, but the ending has been accompanied by stagflationary forces. Gold has risen on the inflationary part of this? The transition to a deflationary environment is being heralded by massive repositioning, into and out of the latest asset flavour of the month, with massive daily price fluctuations as witnessed, but for gold at least still relatively at a higher level now when compared to the US DX over the period from the low.
> 
> In the final analysis, gold does well in inflationary times as the CB's try to re inflate their way out of the mess (as per usual custom), but in the deflationary spiral we are about to enter gold does/will do spectacularly well simply because nothing else is going up in 'value' ie deflating. Simplistic but logical to me at least? The final nail will be if the US DX does finally capitulate inferring one super stagflationary final blow off top for commodities, in a world that can't afford them anyway. And maybe why there is concerted intervention by the worlds central banks to prop the collar up because the alternative is much worse than what we have now?
> 
> Double top for the US DX, both gold & the Dow in 4 figures (Dow will finally price in a real economy recession that is well under way!) before the year is over?




Thanks appreciate  your comments Uncle


----------



## IFocus

CanOz said:


> I'm going to give this trade a go tomorrow night. GLD ETF - Bullish wedge.
> 
> Box of ale says it jumps over my limit order.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz





Can thinking similar haven't decided the entry point yet may work on a couple of steps


----------



## CanOz

IFocus said:


> Can thinking similar haven't decided the entry point yet may work on a couple of steps




Focus, its not the greatest entry really is it? With the ETF trading well after GOLD opens for trading it could well be too late and i'll have to watch for another entry point.

Good luck mate.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Nick Radge

I'll post some ongoing thoughts in Gold using EW and VSA as time permits. Hopefully this may offer some insights on how to correctly use EW. The missed point with EW is that its simply pattern recognition that offers right/wrong attributes - no different to any other type of pattern. By knowing what can possibly happen and at what point we're proven right or wrong, we can better position ourselves to take advantage of the next pattern. The following chart is a zoom in of the chart I posted at #5355.



The most important information on this chart is the move from the Sep 11 lows to the Sep 18 highs. This move is very strong, very clean and swift. In other words its an 'impulse' or some kind of a trend move. Impulse moves are located at waves-1, -3, -5, -A and -C. In this case it can't be a -3, or a -5 or a -C because there are no preceding waves. It can only be a -1 or an -A. 

Its right at this point that we know when this wave will *NOT* be a -1 or an -A, and thats if prices fall back below the lows set on Sep 11. I have noted those lows with 'wrong below'. However, if the current decline travels too deep, usually beyond a 75.0% retracement we can start to think that perhaps we are wrong, albeit confirmation is yet to be sought. Knowing now when we'll be wrong we can start to look for confirmation signs of being right.

After a wave-1 or -A, the following wave will tend to retrace 50.0% to 61.8% which is deemed 'typical' and is why I said that of it goes 75.0% then something is probably wrong. 

Secondly a wave-2 or -B will not only retrace 50.0% to 61.8% but it will do so in a 3-wave movement. On this chart I have placed a 5% zig zag indicator which measured the lengths of waves in percentage terms. In other words I'm not using discretion here. The wave is either > 5% in length or its not. You can see that off the Sep 19 highs we can see a swing down, a swing back up and we're now seeing another swing down. In other words we are seeing (at the moment) 3-waves.

In summary so far, 



we have an impulse from the Sep 11 to Sep 19 highs, 
we have a 3-wave counter trend move that so far has retraced into the 'typical' zone between 50.0% and 61.8%
we know exactly at what point we'll be proven wrong, but we also have a fair idea on when doubt creeps in

In theory if our analysis is correct we should expect to see prices start to reverse higher any day, but where will they go?

This depends on where the larger wave pattern stands, but if we assume that the Sept 19 high is a wave-1 or -A then we should at least expect a follow through move the same length as that Sep 11 to Sep 19 advance _*as a minimum*_. I say as a minimum because we're not yet sure whether the next move higher will be a wave-3 or -C but either way we have a trading opportunity. If/when we see that advance we can do the exact same procedure and build the same right/wrong equation around it.

Lets see what transpires, but remember, we're not predicting the future here. We're assessing the probabilities of the pattern unfolding in the desired direction based on past examples of the same pattern. We know exactly when we'll be proven wrong ahead of time.

Nick

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## explod

Nick Radge said:


> I'll post some ongoing thoughts in Gold using EW and VSA as time permits. Hopefully this may offer some insights on how to correctly use EW. .




A valuable and informative post Nick.

The open comments on this thread of late are very good indeed and everyones few cents worth gold.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Might be a bit early yet, but another break out close, at least for the traders?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Aussie gold miners must be loving the price of gold and the strenght in the USD.
Consolidation on the gold price is over and upwards trend now close.


----------



## chops_a_must

Lucky_Country said:


> Aussie gold miners must be loving the price of gold and the strenght in the USD.
> Consolidation on the gold price is over and upwards trend now close.




Yeah... I'm sure the shareholders are...

Looks like a bit of a squeeze for sure. Very important point with POG rounding whilst everything tanks.

Nice setup Canuck. What's the code for the gold etf?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

We have break up - lift off?


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> We have break up - lift off?




BOOOOUUUUUURRRRNNNNSSSSSS!!!!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Panic buying $900 usd per ounce tonight ?
Gees combined with a weak AUD 
LGL and NCM must be a big buy !


----------



## explod

chops_a_must said:


> BOOOOUUUUUURRRRNNNNSSSSSS!!!!!




A break above US$915 before we get too excited.   Of course that sort of rise in the next day or so against falling markets (FTSE -5.5% today) will do the trick to test the high of March.


----------



## nunthewiser

see post # 5362

avaniceday


----------



## nunthewiser

actually , scratch that , no point tooting things b4 they happen , might get egg on my face


----------



## explod

nunthewiser said:


> actually , scratch that , no point tooting things b4 they happen , might get egg on my face




Nah, a good chance and yes you picked the spot.   A clean break of that point soon would be a very bullish move indeed.   See Aussie gold up $70 plus today so hold your cap.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I do believe $AU1150 is a new high, at least for the last 10 years or so. Yet, the locals still get sold off. When will the penny drop?


----------



## refined silver

This is one scary chart!!!


----------



## IFocus

chops_a_must said:


> What's the code for the gold etf?





GLD on the AMEX


----------



## chops_a_must

IFocus said:


> GLD on the AMEX



Yep, got it up.

Wanting in on a call, but they are looking pretty pricey...

At least I'm still in NCM.


----------



## refined silver

Here's another one. The Ted spread.

From investorpedia: The Ted spread can be used as an indicator of credit risk. This is because U.S. T-bills are considered risk free while the rate associated with the Eurodollar futures is thought to reflect the credit ratings of corporate borrowers. As the Ted spread increases, default risk is considered to be increasing, and investors will have a preference for safe investments. As the spread decreases, the default risk is considered to be decreasing. 

You can see the spike last August when the credit crunch first hit, then the volatility since then, then this last month we just went up an order of magnitude and haven't stopped yet.

Can you guess what this does to Interest Rate swaps which are the largest OTC derivative category of all, in the many hundreds of trillions?


----------



## Lucky_Country

South Africa's 2Q Gold Production -10%  
(RAPAPORT)
Updated: 2008-09-08 09:35 
Counter:139 

South Africa's gold production fell 10.4 percent to 56,933 kilograms in the second quarter of 2008 as the country's electricity crisis continues to impact the sector.

The Chamber of Mines of South Africa reported that production from its gold mining members fell 12.9 percent to 47,329.8 kilograms in April through June, compared to the same period last year.

For the first half of 2008, South Africa's production declined 13.6 percent to 109,160.8 kg.

"The key reason for the year-on-year decline in gold production was the national electricity emergency that effectively closed the gold mining industry from 25 to 31 January 2008 and which then curtailed electricity supply to the gold mining sector to 90 percent of normal usage," the Chamber of Mines explained.

The chamber added that some mines were able to get extra electricity supply, above the 90 percent ration, after March on a case-by-case basis, but "there was no blanket increase in supply to 95 percent."The chamber said the industrial sector had borne the brunt of the electricity savings in the economy since the start of the power crisis in January and called on other sectors - such as government, parastatals, financial services, tourism, and households - to do more.

"The mining industry is seriously concerned about the fact that very few other sectors have achieved much savings, such that the burden still remains on mining and other large industrial customers," the chamber stated. "Given the substantial export earnings and employment intensity of mining, it is clear that this situation cannot continue indefinitely."South Africa was relegated to being the world's second largest gold producer behind China in 2007, after being entrenched in the top spot for many years. China is expected to keep its ranking after revealing plans to increase output by 7 percent in 2008 to 300,000 kg (300 metric tons.)


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> Focus, its not the greatest entry really is it? With the ETF trading well after GOLD opens for trading it could well be too late and i'll have to watch for another entry point.
> 
> Good luck mate.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz



Broke and ran.

Hope you got on it as well Canny.


----------



## cuttlefish

Nice move so far, and Dow also moving down again as well.  I'd still prefer a healthy global economy but in the meantime looks like this is the only option going.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> Nice move so far, and Dow also moving down again as well.  I'd still prefer a healthy global economy but in the meantime looks like this is the only option going.




Aussie gold price up 15% for the night.   

Yes I feel sorry for the other carnage too, but cant say we did not point out the alternatives for preserving wealth.


----------



## cuttlefish

explod said:


> Aussie gold price up 15% for the night.
> 
> Yes I feel sorry for the other carnage too, but cant say we did not point out the alternatives for preserving wealth.




Your decision to back physical gold has been proven right thus far.   The USD capitulation when it occurs (and I see it occurring regardless of whether we're having an inflationary or deflationary depression) will be telling and will imo be when the real gains in gold ar made. But it seems that the denial might continue for a while yet. 

 I can understand china/japan wanting to maintain the status quo for a while yet but the size of the unfillable hole makes me think that they and the US govt have a very challenging task ahead if they think they can keep it stable without intervention.

China's level of USD based assets reminds me of the old adage ... "If you owe the bank $10,000 and you can't pay it bank - you've got a problem.  If you owe the bank $10 million and you can't pay it back - the banks got a problem".    And the real challenge for the cashed up asian/middle eastern economies is competing with each other for the mantle created by the US vacuum.  How they all manage their USD asset situation will be telling and an interesting game of chess.


----------



## Ageo

There is alot of volatility with physical gold thow also, refineries have increased their spread to the largest i have seen in a while. No1 is buying anywhere near the current spot price because they`re not sure if this is sustainable growth or driven all by emotion.


----------



## amory

wherever the Gold price is heading, the leading Gold stocks sure aren't.
first they went down with everything else, then when the rest of the market made an about-turn & went up, the Golds continued on down & finished at their lows for the day.  a very strange performance after how the POG went up overnite, and not very promising.

considering moreover, that the POG-attack was based on a good fundamental basis.  there is nothing more conducive to a rise in gold than a fall in the USDollar, such as we saw happening overnite.  go figure.....


----------



## Whiskers

Nunthewiser, anyone... care to nominate where gold's headed to... next turn point.

I'll say, hmmm lets see, 911.


----------



## nunthewiser

lol scroll back m8 . posted my guesses but yeah around that level u stated i would expect a slight pull back b4 continuing north 

cheers

PS I WOULD LIKE TO STATE THAT MY IDEAS ON DIRECTION < NUMBERS <CALLS ARE MERELY MY OPINION < NO HEED IS TO BE TAKEN


----------



## chops_a_must

amory said:


> wherever the Gold price is heading, the leading Gold stocks sure aren't.
> first they went down with everything else, then when the rest of the market made an about-turn & went up, the Golds continued on down & finished at their lows for the day.  a very strange performance after how the POG went up overnite, and not very promising.
> 
> considering moreover, that the POG-attack was based on a good fundamental basis.  there is nothing more conducive to a rise in gold than a fall in the USDollar, such as we saw happening overnite.  go figure.....




Yep.

AUD gold goes blue sky at all time highs, and LGL and NCM get absolutely smashed...

It's looking pretty strong in european trading as well...


----------



## M34N

chops_a_must said:


> Yep.
> 
> AUD gold goes blue sky at all time highs, and LGL and NCM get absolutely smashed...
> 
> It's looking pretty strong in european trading as well...




+$25US now in Europe mid-morning, Dow futures took a sharp turnaround just before inline with the rising gold price.

Fear reigning supreme? Someone else got a reason for it?

EDIT: Found this on CNBC just before, more rumours it seems regarding the Euro trading session:



> Banks were the top weighted losers on the index, with Royal Bank of Scotland down 33 percent on speculation that it was in talks for UK government funding, and Deutsche Bank down 14 percent on talk of a capital increase, though a financial source dismissed the speculation.


----------



## bean

Just maybe GOLD is about to take center stage.
Nearly there just got to get over US 900 tonight and we are off to the moon

Here is an interesting article worth reading

$$$ Impending US Economic Collapse/Death of Democracy  Clive Maund 321gold   

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund100608.html


----------



## chops_a_must

Yeah, was just going to say that another bunch of runs looks quite likely.

Also, Iceland saying overnight they could well be bankrupt is another factor. Certainly wont be last country in this fiasco to do so.


----------



## Temjin

Geez, all this is happening when the USD Index looks quite bullish in the short/medium term, from a technical analysis anyway. (at least it was yesterday hehe)

FEAR!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A picture is worth a thousand words - if only irrational panic didn't apply to Aussie gold mining stocks! Aussie gold approaching $1300 per oz!

US DX topping out head formation, Aussie dollar may rebound a bit but not back to 90's at least? Slingshot now in full force


----------



## chops_a_must

Options now at the money. Stoked.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> A picture is worth a thousand words - if only irrational panic didn't apply to Aussie gold mining stocks! Aussie gold approaching $1300 per oz!
> 
> US DX topping out head formation, Aussie dollar may rebound a bit but not back to 90's at least? Slingshot now in full force




Yep, noting AUD gold too, uncle... up abt 30% for the last few weeks. 

Must eventually translate into share prices.

Not sure the USD is gonna crash anytime soon though. With the EU not able to get a united economic plan going, I'm tipping the US to look the better of a bad bunch in the medium term.


----------



## Nick Radge

Continuing on from post #5419, we can now see Gold is reversing out of the 'typical' retracement zone after completing a 3-wave correction. The EW mantra is validate or invalidate. Whilst prices continue to trace out their expected pattern we have no reason to doubt the analysis and expect the patterns to continue to unfold. However, we need to know what's to be expected in order to be alert for invalidation.

So far we have:


A strong impulse off the the Sep 11 lows. 
A 3-wave counter trend move
A retracement into the 'typical' wave-2 or -B zone

We're still not to know if this is a wave-3 of a new trend higher or part of a larger corrective pattern. Firstly it doesn't matter because we're still afforded a trading opportunity, and secondly we can deduce what should happen from here if proven correct but also be aware at what point things are going wrong.

If this is a wave-3 we should trade straight higher with minimal wiggling and ideally we should shoot straight through the $1013 level. That level is defined by measuring the length of wave-1 or -A and adding it onto wave-2 or -B. Therefore $1013 is the minimum length a wave-3 will take and likely to be the maximum length that a wave-C will take, Therefore, if prices reverse off $1013, or thereabouts, then chances are we have a larger A-B-C pattern and not a new impulse which then means prices will fall again. 

However, if prices zip straight through $1013 then we're certainly trading in a wave-3 impulse and continue to expect higher prices. Note to the left of that $1013 high we have the major highs? This to me adds some weight that a stall may occur, so if one is long one would be tightening up stops as that level is approached. 

The other important level is the Sep 18 highs labeled here as wave-1 or -A. Note the high volume and weak closes? This means sellers and therefore adds a slight risk of a reversal and possible failure of the pattern.

That said until we're proven wrong we should expect prices to continue through to $1013 but the style in which that happens and how prices react at that high are also important indications for the next pattern.




_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision_


----------



## refined silver

Well CBs are stopping leasing gold!

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=643285

The 5yr average gold lease rate is 0.12%. It has spiked to over 20 times that. If you look at the kitco lease charts its all lease time frames that have gone up and are rising very fast

They are also not rolling over maturing leases. 

This means either:

1. The leasees must buy back in the mkt the gold they have leased and sold sending the price skyward. 

2. The CBs accept cash payment instead of gold payment, meaning the gold CBs have been counting on their books is sold and gone forever. (There has been much written about CB accounting procedures which allows leased gold to still be counted as an asset, and as part of their gold reserves. Some estimate as much as 15,000 tonnes have been leased over the last 10-15yrs.
) 
3. With no new leasing. It means another source of gold supply has dried up.

Since so many previously unthinkable things have happened and are happening, I think we may not be far away from defaults on paper gold markets and the huge tightness in the physical markets taking over in price setting in the gold market. That would be a straight line price move. (But with many forms of paper gold missing out.)


----------



## rederob

> UPDATE: Mint Widens Halt On Gold Coin Sales As Inventories Get Depleted
> October 07, 2008: 02:16 PM EST
> 
> NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- Citing extraordinary demand, the U.S. has broadened its *freeze *on sales of gold bullion coins in another sign that retail investors who are priced out of the futures markets have been piling up their holdings of the metal as a hedge against market uncertainty.
> 
> "Due to the extreme fluctuating market conditions for 2008, as well as current market conditions, gold and silver demand is unprecedented and the demand for platinum is unusually high," the U.S. Mint said in a memorandum released to its authorized purchasers.



Physical demand is through the roof!


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:


> Physical demand is through the roof!




Lol.

Looks like my physical is going to be worth a whole heap.

We've got to see a big pop soon, surely.


----------



## cuttlefish

I'm regretting not buying more physical a little while back - only holding a fairly small amount but its nicely profitable.  The gold equities can't ignore price rises forever (I hope.)


----------



## Ageo

Just watch out for those spreads, you will be buying at well above the spot price if buying physical.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cuttlefish said:


> I'm regretting not buying more physical a little while back - only holding a fairly small amount but its nicely profitable. The gold equities can't ignore price rises forever (I hope.)




Will there be a disconnect, as in the 1930's? Obviously the baby is getting thrown out with the bath water today - pick a stock, any stock! Even if the 'discounting' was due to less revenue from the copper offtakes it's hard to ignore the fundamental figures for pure profit from gold companies, at this point in time. 

You can't beat a gold play for pure leverage, but it apparently needs more than logic and bare facts to convince the weak and/or irrational hands to hold tight to their goldies. I bought some NCM today.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Thar she blows - Aussie gold $1300/oz


----------



## nunthewiser

Uncle Festivus said:


> Thar she blows - Aussie gold $1300/oz




 woop woop


----------



## chops_a_must

Gold getting a massive hard on!


----------



## chops_a_must

And again on the British bail out news...


----------



## rederob

Uncle Festivus said:


> You can't beat a gold play for pure leverage, but it apparently needs more than logic and bare facts to convince the weak and/or irrational hands to hold tight to their goldies.



It's their profit announcements that will win out.
The Lihirs and NC Ms are cash cows in an otherwise tough market.  While an equity's price might reflect market sentiment, it sometimes has diddly squat to do with a company's true value.
Low (or no) debt, low cost, unhedged producers has been my mantra for many years.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> It's their profit announcements that will win out.
> The Lihirs and NC Ms are cash cows in an otherwise tough market.  While an equity's price might reflect market sentiment, it sometimes has diddly squat to do with a company's true value.
> Low (or no) debt, low cost, unhedged producers has been my mantra for many years.




Absolutely, it is so good that we know and most others do not.  The bargains now are fantastic.  Gold following is now into the perfect storm.

I post little now because the job has been done and with US gold tonight breaking out of the big pennant it looks like a big move earlier than I first anticipated.


----------



## bean

Yes been 100% invested in gold stocks since mid September
Up 100% in a falling market isn't to bad 
But tomorrow at the moment looks as though we may have a good up day in the goldies as the market crashes
Up AUD $160  tonight so far.

Was fully invested so the bargains today passed me by.
However the ones I bought were bargains


----------



## M34N

Gold now at $1418AU; looks like the Johannesburg gold stocks took a swing upwards after being down a couple percent, have been steadily rising all night.

US gold price hitting that key $910 level and holding around there; waiting for the NY session to start before take off?

I finally suspect we may get a big move up tonight, or very, VERY soon...


----------



## bean

Rocket fuel has arrived for GOLD
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081008/business_us_interestrates.html


----------



## bean

bean said:


> Gold may have a bit of downward pressure...but the possibility of a .50% rate cut happening in the US and Europe early next week should help when it happens.




I was expecting it yesterday - well one day out


----------



## explod

My watch list of 20 ASX gold stocks is virtually a sea of green today.  The HUI index up 20% last night has led the disconnect from the general market that we have been looking for.   If the gold price continues this nice steady climb we can expect better things.

The small caps are finally kicking in too.  At an Aussie price of $1,350 an ounce there is a whole new outlook for otherwise uneconomic pits.


----------



## bankit

Hi Explod,

Saw the same thing myself this morning and sent this E-mail of to another Goldbug before the open this morning


_We might be getting some movement in our Gold stocks shortly._

_The action overnight was strange and I have not seen it before - the gold stocks were in very strong demand._

_Spot Gold up 1.82%  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD_

_US Gold and silver stock index_ _ up 17.2% http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU_

_HUI up 18.7% http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$hui_


----------



## Temjin

This may be a rocket fuel too, and just gave me an alarm to buy more physical now! Ppls are getting more desperate. 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f565b702-949a-11dd-953e-000077b07658.html



> *Central banks all but stop lending bullion*
> 
> By Javier Blas in London
> Published: October 7 2008 21:44 | Last updated: October 7 2008 21:44
> 
> Central banks have all but stopped lending gold to commercial and investment banks and other participants in the precious metals market, in a move that on Tuesday sent the cost of borrowing bullion for one-month to more than twenty times its usual level.
> 
> The one-month gold lease rate rocketed to 2.649 per cent, its highest level since May 2001 and significantly above its five-year average of 0.12 per cent, according to data from the London Bullion Market Association.
> 
> Gold lease rates for two, three and six months and for a year also jumped to levels not seen in the last seven years.
> 
> Traders said the jump reflects the fact that central banks – mostly European – have almost completely stopped lending gold in the last few days and are not rolling forward old leases after maturity. This is because of fears that some borrowers might not repay their bullion loans if they are engulfed by the financial crisis.
> 
> “A number of central banks have been cutting back on their gold lending,” said Tom Kendall, a precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi in London.
> John Reade, a commodities strategist at UBS, added that there had been a lot of talk about some central banks being unwilling to lend their gold because of a redoubled focus on the risk of borrowers not returning it.
> 
> “There is very little appetite for unsecured lending at the moment,” he said.
> Central banks usually do not ask borrowers to post any guarantee – or collateral – to secure bullion loans. “The key word now is safety,” an official from a Europe-based central bank said.
> 
> In normal circumstances, central banks lend gold into the market – providing key liquidity – to earn a small return on what otherwise is a non-yielding asset.
> 
> Other factors are also pushing lease rates higher, including more investors’ positions no longer available for lending, according to Philipp Klapwijk, chairman of GFMS, the London-based precious metals consultants.
> 
> Traders said the general dysfunction in money markets, with US dollar rates significantly higher, was contributing to volatile gold lease rates. Demand for physical gold and small and medium-sized bars had been strong, removing supplies from the market that otherwise could have been lent, traders added.
> The US Mint onTuesday said it had run out of half-ounce and quarter-ounce American Eagle gold coins following “unprecedented” demand.
> 
> Gold prices on Tuesday rose $19.3 to $880.6 a troy ounce, having hit an intraday high of $890.6 an ounce. Bullion prices hit an all-time high of $1,030.8 in March. In euro terms, gold prices rose on Tuesday to a record high of â‚¬654.22 an ounce, above March’s all-time high of â‚¬651.24 an ounce. It also hit a record in Australian dollars.
> 
> Investors are seeking refuge in actual gold coins and bars as fears about the safety of their savings increase. Some have even been selling their positions in gold futures, as this is a less tangible form of the metal. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three weeks ago, bullion prices have risen about 20 per cent.


----------



## Nick Radge

A quote from my post #5453...



> The other important level is the Sep 18 highs labeled here as wave-1 or -A. Note the high volume and weak closes? This means sellers and therefore adds a slight risk of a reversal and possible failure of the pattern.




Last nights high? $924.
Sep 18 high?       $922

Last nights close? $906, on the lows. 

Gold is now back at $894 so its a sign that the sellers seen back on Sep 18 are still active. Prices cannot go higher unless they are fulfilled or they back away. The day session can change dramatically, but an early 'red flag'.

Nick


----------



## Ageo

Nick Radge said:


> A quote from my post #5453...
> 
> 
> 
> Last nights high? $924.
> Sep 18 high?       $922
> 
> Last nights close? $906, on the lows.
> 
> Gold is now back at $894 so its a sign that the sellers seen back on Sep 18 are still active. Prices cannot go higher unless they are fulfilled or they back away. The day session can change dramatically, but an early 'red flag'.
> 
> Nick




Nick i have never seen the AU spot price move $100 in the daytime (usually its doormat) 3pm around $1355 to now $1255


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ageo said:


> Nick i have never seen the AU spot price move $100 in the daytime (usually its doormat) 3pm around $1355 to now $1255




The thing about that is its really the move back up of the AUD that has resulted in that.

Another thing is where does the price of AUD gold come from 

It seems to be a made up instrument for the bucket shops?? (I'm pretty sure)

There is no market for AUD gold like the futs USD gold.

Anyone?


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> Nick i have never seen the AU spot price move $100 in the daytime (usually its doormat) 3pm around $1355 to now $1255




At one stage last night it hit $1,417.   There have been three $100 plus moves (two up one down) in the last few weeks.   An old gold trader (who experienced the 1970s', )I talk to stated that huge volotile moves will become a feature.


----------



## chops_a_must

Trembling Hand said:


> The thing about that is its really the move back up of the AUD that has resulted in that.
> 
> Another thing is where does the price of AUD gold come from
> 
> It seems to be a made up instrument for the bucket shops?? (I'm pretty sure)
> 
> There is no market for AUD gold like the futs USD gold.
> 
> Anyone?



It's what is quoted at the Perth Mint iirc.


----------



## Trembling Hand

chops_a_must said:


> It's what is quoted at the Perth Mint iirc.




But is there a 24 hr market that every one quotes and post charts for??


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> But is there a 24 hr market that every one quotes and post charts for??




I read the Aussie gold price off the world international currency gold listings at the bottom of the Kito.com homepage.


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:


> It's what is quoted at the Perth Mint iirc.




   Is there a buy/sell spread at the mint?? 

cheeres
...........Kauri


----------



## nunthewiser

Trembling Hand said:


> But is there a 24 hr market that every one quotes and post charts for??




is this what your after ?

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php


----------



## Trembling Hand

nunthewiser said:


> is this what your after ?
> 
> http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php




Nah mate. I got real futs data. Its just that NO market exist in AUD gold.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ok have had a little look. If any one is interested (most likely not)

The AUD gold price that cfd providers quote, and wedsites etc, is obviously linked to three things.

You have the Nymex GC futs contract which is in USD. So thats two, Gold against US dollars but also the AUD/USD futs. So the providers are taking the GC contract price and linking it via conversion with the AUD futs. There is no continually quoted market for AUD Gold.

Having a look at my friendly cfd providers contracts for AUD Gold it flicks in price almost continually way way more than the GC contract. This is actually the move in the AUD USD not the gold market.

Like I said no one is probably interest but now you know.


----------



## IFocus

Trembling Hand said:


> Ok have had a little look. If any one is interested (most likely not)
> 
> The AUD gold price that cfd providers quote, and wedsites etc, is obviously linked to three things.
> 
> You have the Nymex GC futs contract which is in USD. So thats two, Gold against US dollars but also the AUD/USD futs. So the providers are taking the GC contract price and linking it via conversion with the AUD futs. There is no continually quoted market for AUD Gold.
> 
> Having a look at my friendly cfd providers contracts for AUD Gold it flicks in price almost continually way way more than the GC contract. This is actually the move in the AUD USD not the gold market.
> 
> Like I said no one is probably interest but now you know.




There is Asian FUTs for gold same time zone some where


----------



## Whiskers

Nick Radge said:


> A quote from my post #5453...
> 
> 
> 
> Last nights high? $924.
> Sep 18 high?       $922
> 
> Last nights close? $906, on the lows.
> 
> Gold is now back at $894 so its a sign that the sellers seen back on Sep 18 are still active. Prices cannot go higher unless they are fulfilled or they back away. The day session can change dramatically, but an early 'red flag'.
> 
> Nick




Previously, I've noticed quite a difference in (Spot) quotes at times.

I use Kitco's spot price in my taskbar for a quick reference, but use below for longer term charting.

As an example of price differences, kitco's high last night seems to be over 921 and this chart 920... which from last time checked seemed closer to the LGE.

Similarly, this chart 18 Sept was 915 with the high 925, later at 29 Sept. 

Different prices and different counts. Curious to know which ends up giving the best trend indication.

AUD gold overlayed but I wouldn't be bothered trying to chart it. Just a quick reference as to trend for returns to Aus producers


----------



## barrett

Hey nice work on the technicals there people, a lot of you were right onto this recent move..

We just added physical 2 weeks ago at about A$1000 and then last night I'm looking at the AUD price and we're up 40% but I reckon that's BS since it's all about the AUDUSD below.. like so many other (tradeable) moves in this market this recent AUD fall is a total crock, IMO, relative to the fundamentals...  maybe this needs to be considered before loading up on the 1g/t Aussie pits going for loose change... though at some point during this gold bull surely there will be huge fortunes made buying those assets.

Could now be the time to buy them?  It would need:
1. AUD to stay low, or
2. USD gold price to continue its recent uptick.
Personally I'd rather see the leading Aus-exposed gold stocks show some more continued strength before loading up on those juniors.  Stocks like NCM and LGL should be hitting the roof right now, and they're not - not consistently.

AUDUSD weekly 1998-2008


----------



## chops_a_must

Trembling Hand said:


> Its just that NO market exist in AUD gold.



Gotta say that's crap.

If I want to buy or sell physical, I have to do it in AUD. Therefore a market in AUD gold exists.

What you mean is an exchange traded AUD Gold contract. There isn't one, but it is a different kettle of fish.


----------



## amory

Is this the right time to get serious about gold?  Bloomberg this morning ... at a glance ... DowJones down, Treasuries down, Oil down, Gold down ... anything up?  yes the USDollar (indicating that the Fed is doing OK) ... and a headline ...
<< Gold Futures Drop on Bets Global Slump to Cut Commodity Demand >>
Note the word ... Commodity.  just when it was beginning to look like its taking its rightful place at last & the fiat currency will end up in the nether regions where it belongs.  just another commodity, well what do you know?


----------



## BentRod

> Gold down ... anything up?




Not anymore.


----------



## M34N

Wow nice change of course there, was just about to say the same thing.

DJIA down 600 right now, was 700 down just a second ago. Talk about roller coaster! Those drops are becoming bigger and way too common late in the session on the DJ, capitulation has to be near surely? How long can people hold on in hope?


----------



## BentRod

Might even touch that TL @ 950ish the way it is going!


----------



## amory

I see what you mean, Bent!  Gold ... well maybe after all .... and anyway the recovery of the USDollar is not all that impressive.

they say when the elephants are fighting, the mouse stays clear.  but times like this, wouldn't it be nice to have a little piece of cheese to nibble at.


----------



## Nick Radge

The plight of Gold really has nothing to do with the US$ at the moment, not directly at least. The TED spread has blown out to record proportions, dramatically more so than that seen in 1987. This means investors are going to cash, specifically US T-Bills. All assets are being sold - Gold is an asset as well. In order to access US T-Bills, assets in any currency are being sold and US$ are being bought. You can't buy US T-Bills unless you pay US$. This is why ALL commodities and currencies are diving. Its a classic 'flight to quality' and regardless of what you think, US T-Bills are the safe haven (if it weren't the US$ would not be rising nor would the TED spread be blowing out)


----------



## explod

Nick Radge said:


> The plight of Gold really has nothing to do with the US$ at the moment, not directly at least. The TED spread has blown out to record proportions, dramatically more so than that seen in 1987. This means investors are going to cash, specifically US T-Bills. All assets are being sold - Gold is an asset as well. In order to access US T-Bills, assets in any currency are being sold and US$ are being bought. You can't buy US T-Bills unless you pay US$. This is why ALL commodities and currencies are diving. Its a classic 'flight to quality' and regardless of what you think, US T-Bills are the safe haven (if it weren't the US$ would not be rising nor would the TED spread be blowing out)




Absolutely, however the sentiment on the US currency (due to the debt problem which will not be solved sometime soon) will reverse and it is then that gold will show its power as real value.    And as I have maintained it will probably not be till about March next year as the new US Admin takes full rien.

Always remember that gold is a very small component of the financial market so that small changes of sentiment will have huge effects.


----------



## solomon

I wasn't quite sure where to post this, but i wanted to share it and get some comments, it seems most relevant in the short term to the USD and in the longer term to inflation and the gold price - I'm a longer term guy so posted it here ...

from: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCn0Cfv8Yuso&refer=home
"Foreign central banks raised their holdings of Treasuries in custody with the Fed for a seventh week as the Treasury and central bank took additional measures to support the financial markets. It was the biggest weekly increase since May 2003."

If I have interpretted this correctly it may be one of the key factors suporting the USD, because foreign central banks would need to buy USD to buy treasuries, or use their foreigh currency reserves. Is this the FED asking for big favours from its friends?

Either foreign central banks swap their USD for treasuries which puts more USD into the US system from their foreign currency reserves, or they have been directly buying USD to buy treasuries - which would be giving major support to the USD over the last 7 weeks. Is this a last resort before the FED starts printing money?


----------



## chops_a_must

Nick Radge said:


> The plight of Gold really has nothing to do with the US$ at the moment, not directly at least. The TED spread has blown out to record proportions, dramatically more so than that seen in 1987. This means investors are going to cash, specifically US T-Bills. All assets are being sold - Gold is an asset as well. In order to access US T-Bills, assets in any currency are being sold and US$ are being bought. You can't buy US T-Bills unless you pay US$. This is why ALL commodities and currencies are diving. Its a classic 'flight to quality' and regardless of what you think, US T-Bills are the safe haven (if it weren't the US$ would not be rising nor would the TED spread be blowing out)



Well... we'll see gold at 1013 on NY open IMO.

There goes my strategy of buying long dated calls at that level. 

Ah well, at least I'll get a very big winner from the one I have now.


----------



## nunthewiser

would like to point out my previous call on Gold as being great as its the only bleedin one that ive made lately that been correct 

go gold for bogans!


----------



## GreatPig

With the current price at about $137, I'm starting to hear that James Bond theme:

Gold finger...

Looks a bit like a one-finger salute. 

GP


----------



## refined silver

Nick Radge said:


> This means investors are going to cash, specifically US T-Bills. All assets are being sold - Gold is an asset as well. In order to access US T-Bills, assets in any currency are being sold and US$ are being bought. You can't buy US T-Bills unless you pay US$. This is why ALL commodities and currencies are diving. Its a classic 'flight to quality' and regardless of what you think, US T-Bills are the safe haven (if it weren't the US$ would not be rising nor would the TED spread be blowing out)




There is a world of difference between *perceived* safety and *real *safety! Wall st Blue-chip financial shares were perceived safety a year ago, but as is seen now they are not real safety. 

Yes people are running to US T-bills, but they are not ultimate safety as will be seen soon. The junk that is on balance sheets causing TED rates to skyrocket, is being transferred to US Fed so fast, it needed more T-bills from US Treasury becasue it was out. So its $800b US T-bonds (which are collateral for the Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs)(dollar bills) that it prints, have been replaced with toxic CDOs, CDSs etc! 

In hindsight, we can see that Weimar govt bonds were not the ultimate safe haven. Same will shortly be seen with US Treasuries.

Gold is rising more than USD, so its not being sold, in fact it is proving to be the currency of last resort as it rising faster than any currency, and is already at record prices in AUD, Euro, GBP, and about nine other currencies.

Not only is gold rising faster, there is a massive disconnect between the price of physical gold and paper gold. In kids games, paper covers rock, which it has done also for many years in the gold market. This about to change.


----------



## explod

chops_a_must said:


> Well... we'll see gold at 1013 on NY open IMO.
> 
> There goes my strategy of buying long dated calls at that level.
> 
> Ah well, at least I'll get a very big winner from the one I have now.




I would not back it myself.  Not saying that it will not but it appears that a line in the sand over the last 3 or 4 weeks has been drawn by the Comex at about $US925

Chops, check out Jim Sinclair's site for a very good run down on the current.  Just google the name will find it.

Of course if your call is correct then anything could happen in an upwards thrust.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

The Perth Mint "makes a market" in AUD gold, but since gold is an over-the-counter market there is no one source of the "true" price. COMEX price is not the best price as that is a futures price, not spot. Professional bullion traders use Reuters for an indication of the gold price.

Apart from kitco.com, try the ASX traded products GOLD and ZAUWBA. Retail prices can be found at http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx (frequency of update depends on trading volumes).


----------



## nunthewiser

Gday Bron , any chance you can have a look out the window and confirm rumours that there is a queue outside the mint to buy gold ?


----------



## Who Dares Wins

I was talking to someone at the NZ Mint today who said they have been doing an entire normal months business everyday for the last 3 weeks. Selling gold for deliver in January and silver for delivery in February so waitlists have expanded. I bought silver earlier in the year with a wait of only 2 weeks.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Who Dares Wins said:


> I was talking to someone at the NZ Mint today who said they have been doing an entire normal months business everyday for the last 3 weeks. Selling gold for deliver in January and silver for delivery in February so waitlists have expanded. I bought silver earlier in the year with a wait of only 2 weeks.




really thats great news. Must be time to short gold on the next "I told you so" by the gold bugs.


----------



## nunthewiser

lol , i told you so


----------



## chops_a_must

If gold doesn't move here, I don't think it ever will.

Especially as platinum is so close by as well...


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> If gold doesn't move here, I don't think it ever will.
> 
> Especially as platinum is so close by as well...




Yeah, platinium and gold marginally lower, but I doubt we will see a spectatular rise in gold just yet, if silver and palladium are any indication it seems to be stepping back a little... down about 10% and 5% respectively in the last few hours.

It just seems that the mindset is cash is king atm... and preferably under the bed.


----------



## chops_a_must

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, platinium and gold marginally lower, but I doubt we will see a spectatular rise in gold just yet, if silver and palladium are any indication it seems to be stepping back a little... down about 10% and 5% respectively in the last few hours.
> 
> It just seems that the mindset is cash is king atm... and preferably under the bed.




That suits precious metals Whiskers.

That's why I'm saying if gold doesn't move here, it never will.

We've already had some trading above resistance, but the open will be telling.

I favour an ascending triangle break here, so either way, it will move a lot.


As a side note, are you actually trading it?


----------



## Whiskers

chops_a_must said:


> As a side note, are you actually trading it?




Nah... I think I've got it figured right not expecting any significant moves. 

Just trawling news tonight looking for clues as to what next.


----------



## chops_a_must

Whiskers said:


> Nah... I think I've got it figured right not expecting any significant moves.
> 
> Just trawling news tonight looking for clues as to what next.



Despite the CDS auction?

You're kidding aren't you?


----------



## chops_a_must

And sellers look to be clearly in control here.

No-one chasing the price up.

Out at a small profit and looking for a longer term entry.


----------



## michael_selway

Bron Suchecki said:


> The Perth Mint "makes a market" in AUD gold, but since gold is an over-the-counter market there is no one source of the "true" price. COMEX price is not the best price as that is a futures price, not spot. Professional bullion traders use Reuters for an indication of the gold price.
> 
> Apart from kitco.com, try the ASX traded products GOLD and ZAUWBA. Retail prices can be found at http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx (frequency of update depends on trading volumes).




Hey whats the diff between GOLD & ZAUWBA?

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must

chops_a_must said:


> I favour an ascending triangle break here, so either way, it will move a lot.



As expected, it was going to move a lot either way.

Getting crushed tonight.


----------



## Sean K

chops_a_must said:


> As expected, it was going to move a lot either way.
> 
> Getting crushed tonight.



What's your strategy at the moment Chops. Are you just holding long, or trading the moves.

I was expecting a break up, and stops were hit, lucky they exist. 

Couldn't afford to just be either way at the moment, the moves are so dramatic...


----------



## bean

Just some tidbits re todays move in Gold
From some forums

Apparently a trust fund GLD in the US added 5 Tonnes today



> SPDR GOLD SHARES
> (NYSEArca: GLD)
> 
> GLD added 5 tons today
> This is more evidence that the gold move was more of a paper/comex phenomenon and that physical gold is going for a premium.
> 
> People were BUYING gold today. The trust added 5 tonnes to an all time record of 770.64 tonnes.
> 
> The PPT did all the damage, shorting on the paper market... Your tax dollars at work.




'Means US tax dollars' 

Also
Rumors increasing  re default on Comex


----------



## Trembling Hand

nunthewiser said:


> lol , i told you so






And a big LOL.

I told you so.

Ah!! too funny. :


----------



## nunthewiser

Trembling Hand said:


> And a big LOL.
> 
> I told you so.
> 
> Ah!! too funny. :




 um a bit of a time delay there m8 ......  we was obviously talking different time wave thingo counts


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I like gold.

The physical stuff though.

I have some hidden that I bought from the Perth Mint.

I've never traded it though.

I prefer the physical, its pretty and when things go to s**t its tradeable for things like food and fuel.

I guess it will follow the market inversely in the short term.

gg


----------



## GreatPig

michael_selway said:


> whats the diff between GOLD & ZAUWBA?



GOLD is Gold Bullion Securities Ltd. The GOLD stock you buy is:



> A redeemable preference shares issued by Gold Bullion Securities Limited, which carries with it an entitlement to gold bullion held on trust for all security holders




ZAUWBA is a long-dated warrant issued by Gold Corporation. See this Perth Mint page. According to that page:



> Gold Corporation is a statutory authority of the Government of Western Australia



GP


----------



## nunthewiser

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I like gold.
> 
> The physical stuff though.
> 
> I have some hidden that I bought from the Perth Mint.
> 
> I've never traded it though.
> 
> I prefer the physical, its pretty and when things go to s**t its tradeable for things like food and fuel.
> 
> I guess it will follow the market inversely in the short term.
> 
> gg




gday m8.

I hold physical Gold also, bought last year and also hidden but guarded by a mean ole staffy with aids , not traded kept for a rainy day,
i also trade the stock GOLD and also hold stock in a small producer which is currently kicking me in the moosh 

life goes on

cheers


----------



## explod

nunthewiser said:


> gday m8.
> 
> I hold physical Gold also, bought last year and also hidden but guarded by a mean ole staffy with aids , not traded kept for a rainy day,
> i also trade the stock GOLD and also hold stock in a small producer which is currently kicking me in the moosh
> 
> life goes on
> 
> cheers




Me too, and though it maybe does not put the world on fire to the criteria of some high performers who post their brilliance here sometimes.  However gold has more than held its own when most other things have fallen away.

Great insurance.  

Since Matthey's closed here in Melbourne not sure of where I am going to dispose of mine when the times comes yet but sure the answer will soon come when everyone wants to buy it.


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Me too, and though it maybe does not put the world on fire to the criteria of some high performers who post their brilliance here sometimes.  However gold has more than held its own when most other things have fallen away.
> 
> Great insurance.
> 
> Since Matthey's closed here in Melbourne not sure of where I am going to dispose of mine when the times comes yet but sure the answer will soon come when everyone wants to buy it.



There is massive buying of physical precious metals, out of kilter with futures action.
The futures are subject to wide speculative swings, presently driven by funds needing cash counterbalanced against cashed up longs.  I'm not sure how much more fund liquidation is probable, but the trend has a life span.  
When gold price volatility declines considerably we will see a steady and sustained march north.
I think the speculators are mostly in their death throes on gold.


----------



## nunthewiser

rederob said:


> There is massive buying of physical precious metals, out of kilter with futures action.
> The futures are subject to wide speculative swings, presently driven by funds needing cash counterbalanced against cashed up longs.  I'm not sure how much more fund liquidation is probable, but the trend has a life span.
> When gold price volatility declines considerably we will see a steady and sustained march north.
> I think the speculators are mostly in their death throes on gold.




like i said , mines for a rainy day , not intrested in the trading of the stuff , will stay buried with my dear ole nannas falsies and all the other bits and pieces that are sitting in the "armageddon " box

cheers


----------



## Temjin

Hmm..I did not expect this to happen SO SOON.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24476457-462,00.html



> *For some, gloom is good as gold*
> 
> 
> THANKS to the financial firestorm sweeping the globe, business in one niche of the Australian economy has never been better.
> 
> 
> Gold bullion dealers around the country are reporting spectacular sales as investors flock from traditional forms of investment such as stocks and bonds into the "safe haven" of gold and silver bullion.
> 
> 
> 
> In one Sydney bullion house in the past week, a senior Westpac Bank manager walked in and bought nearly $300,000 of physical gold, equivalent at current prices to roughly 6.5kg of the metal.
> 
> 
> 
> The manager said he had made the decision after he saw many of his staff (investment advisers) converting their cash and other savings into gold.
> Scary stuff.
> 
> 
> 
> The price of gold, of course, like shares and bonds, can also fluctuate wildly, but unlike shares, the investment can never just be wiped off the face of the earth overnight.
> 
> 
> 
> Regardless of the risks inherent with investing in commodities - in the past month the price has fluctuated between about $US740 and $US900 an ounce - gold is becoming the new black.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lisa Casagrande, who in a former life was a champion striker for the Australian soccer team the Matildas, runs Gold and Silver Bullion Australia, located on the Gold Coast. She says that, in the past week or two, there has been a 60 to 70 per cent spike in business as people flee banks and share investment.
> 
> 
> 
> Currently, her business is shifting between 500 and 1000 ounces of gold bullion a day (1000 ounces is worth about $1.3 million at today's price).
> Gold's sister metal is also in high demand. Casegrande maintains that "there is a lot of investment at the moment in silver bullion . . . so much so that a lot of the refineries have a 10-week waiting list".
> 
> 
> 
> The way people are buying has also changed.
> 
> 
> 
> Casegrande says: "A lot of the bigger investors are taking much larger amounts of bullion."





I was not expecting this type of news be out so early. So the number of contrarians have risen since the crisis started. It's a surprise that a lot of the mainstream advisers are now catching on the trend. It wouldn't be long until the general public start doing it. Day of reckoning soon??? 



The ranks of gold bug have increased quite significantly over the past few weeks.


----------



## IFocus

Temjin said:


> Hmm..I did not expect this to happen SO SOON.
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24476457-462,00.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I was not expecting this type of news be out so early. So the number of contrarians have risen since the crisis started. It's a surprise that a lot of the mainstream advisers are now catching on the trend. It wouldn't be long until the general public start doing it. Day of reckoning soon???
> 
> 
> 
> The ranks of gold bug have increased quite significantly over the past few weeks.





Temjin when I read this the thought when through my head to short gold 




> The manager said he had made the decision after he saw many of his staff *(investment advisers)* converting their cash and other savings into gold.
> Scary stuff.


----------



## nunthewiser

IFocus said:


> Temjin when I read this the thought when through my head to short gold




Short this sucka as much as you want boys and girls .heck i,ll probably join ya .. BUT ...i will also be one of them ole skool wierdo,s that sitting there waiting to pick up a piece down the track 

one of those long windy road kinda deals


----------



## bean

World's Markets May Close---New Bretton Woods
Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World's Markets (Update1)
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world's financial markets while they ``rewrite the rules of international finance.''

``The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,'' Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to More..the financial crisis ``can't just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.''

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much 8.1 percent in early trading and pared most of those losses after Berlusconi's remarks. The Dow was down 0.5 percent to 8540.52 at 10:10 in New York.

Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers are meeting in Washington today, and will stay in town for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings this weekend. European Union leaders may gather in Paris on Oct. 12, three days before a scheduled summit in Brussels, Berlusconi said today, while Group of Eight leaders may hold a meeting on the crisis ``in coming days,'' he said.

Berlusconi didn't give any details about what kind of rules leaders were looking to change, except to say that leaders are ``talking about a new Bretton Woods.''

The Bretton Woods Agreements were adopted to rebuild the international economic system after World War II in a hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The aim of the agreements was to establish a monetary management system, initially by pegging currencies to gold. The IMF was set up later to help manage the international financial system
Less..


----------



## Dowdy

Peter Schiff saids the DOW and Gold will be 1:1 ratio sometime in the future. I think he could be right


----------



## Nick Radge

Would that Peter Schiff be the same one sprouting about the "3 best stocks you must own to beat the global meltdown" ...one of which was Great Southerns (GTP)?


----------



## michael_selway

Dowdy said:


> Peter Schiff saids the DOW and Gold will be 1:1 ratio sometime in the future. I think he could be right




http://www.europac.net/media/Schiff-CNN-10-6-08_lg.wmv

Yep in that video

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> What's your strategy at the moment Chops. Are you just holding long, or trading the moves.



Basically buying the volatility short term.

Looking at a flat and bullish outlook medium and long term.


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Gold is very much about politics/currencies or, if you like, the fundamental world stage.   The 10 year gold chart shows gold in a long term up trend and in the last 12 months the gain is 16%
> 
> Gold sales desks world wide are reporting huge public sales and the depletion of stock.   The big days for gold bugs must be close by.
> 
> Although, as I have always believed, it will probably not be allowed to bolt till after the Presidential election.  Only a month away now though.





I have no big picture report this week because my last Saturday message above still holds.

Cheers to the gold bugs.  But remember a lot of misery is going tocome to many people near you out of all this.


----------



## Dowdy

Nick Radge said:


> Would that Peter Schiff be the same one sprouting about the "3 best stocks you must own to beat the global meltdown" ...one of which was Great Southerns (GTP)?




Not too sure. The peter schiff i'm talking about predicted the dot com bust, housing bust, credit crunch so he's pretty good at analysing the market and the fundamentals


----------



## GreatPig

Temjin said:


> a senior Westpac Bank manager walked in and bought nearly $300,000 of physical gold



Hmm... remind me not to put any term deposits into Westpac any time soon.

If the rats are abandoning ship... 

GP


----------



## amory

Gold Price - Where is it heading?  wouldn't you all like to know.  the answer is so simple I shouldn't even have to tell youse.  Gold will go up & down like everything else & maybe sometimes in a contrarian direction 

but it won't outperform, until such time as the USDollar goes into collapse mode, only then will the POG come into its own.

not looking too dapper, the dollar, is it?  true true, but its not in freefall like the rest of the market.  the dollar refusing to roll over & die, that's whats keeping gold down.  WATCH THE DOLLAR!  simple, isnt it.

another little hint:  even if the market survives its current ailments, what will be the lasting outcome, the byproduct if you like?  Massive Inflation, right?  stands to reason, this will precede above-said collapse.  so now you know what you're looking for, thanks very much.


----------



## michael_selway

amory said:


> Gold Price - Where is it heading?  wouldn't you all like to know.  the answer is so simple I shouldn't even have to tell youse.  Gold will go up & down like everything else & maybe sometimes in a contrarian direction
> 
> but it won't outperform, until such time as the USDollar goes into collapse mode, only then will the POG come into its own.
> 
> not looking too dapper, the dollar, is it?  true true, but its not in freefall like the rest of the market.  the dollar refusing to roll over & die, that's whats keeping gold down.  WATCH THE DOLLAR!  simple, isnt it.
> 
> another little hint:  even if the market survives its current ailments, what will be the lasting outcome, the byproduct if you like?  Massive Inflation, right?  stands to reason, this will precede above-said collapse.  so now you know what you're looking for, thanks very much.




Hm tiem will tell...

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash/business/20081011_BEAR_MARKETS/economic_crisis.swf


http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/200...al-banks-not-rolling-forward-gold-leases.html



> *October 08, 2008
> Big Shift In Gold Fundamentals:* Central Banks Not Rolling Forward Gold Leases
> Here's an important quote from a 10/7/2008 Financial Times article: "central banks... are not rolling forward old leases after maturity."
> 
> To understand what this is about, one must understand the basics of central bank gold leasing. The Gold Antitrust Action Committee (GATA) is convinced (and I accept their claims), that the US Treasury and its allies, including the European central banks, have been suppressing the price of gold for about a decade by strategically selling their gold. They do this, GATA claims, to limit gold's ability to supplant their fiat (not backed by anything) currencies (US$, GBP, Euro) while they continually debase these currencies.
> 
> Whether you accept GATA's claims or not, the fact is that the supply of gold (as seen by those buying and selling gold) has been increased by two central bank actions:
> 
> (1) Direct gold sales. The amount to be sold was negotiated four years ago by a treaty known as the Washington Agreement which expired in September 2008.
> 
> (2) Gold leases to third parties (at extremely low interest rates). Those third parties then sold the gold and used the proceeds to invest in other vehicles where they expected higher returns. When such a gold lease matures it must either be rolled over, or the lessee must obtain (buy) the leased amount of gold and return it to the central bank.
> 
> With this in mind we can see the importance of the following two quotes from the above article:
> 
> (1) "Central banks have all but stopped lending gold to commercial and investment banks and other participants in the precious metals market" - this eliminates a significant fraction of supply seen by the gold markets. It also implies that central banks have changed their view of the significance of gold and will probably not continue to sell it as they have in the past (again eliminating a significant fraction of gold supply, roughly equivalent to 20% of annual mine production).
> 
> (2) "central banks... are not rolling forward old leases after maturity." - this means that as these leases mature, the lessees must buy gold to return it to the central banks. This creates a significant new form of demand for gold.
> 
> Together this is a significant increase in demand relative to supply equivalent to something like a 20 to 25% reduction in gold mine production. This should, according to economics 101 and with all things being otherwise equal, push the price of gold significantly higher. Its interesting to note that what happened to the price of lead (Pb), the heavy metal, when it took only a 3% reduction of supply in the form of a mine closing in 2007. The price of lead (Pb) rose more than 100% (from $.80/lb to around $1.80/lb). Its a natural to conclude that the price of gold, based on this larger change in demand / supply dynamics, will react even more substantially. We'll see. Only God knows what is going to happen in the future, especially with the crazy things happening now.
> 
> Click here for an earlier discussion of central bank selling and gold fundamentals from August 2008.


----------



## Sean K

Dowdy said:


> Not too sure. The peter schiff i'm talking about predicted the dot com bust, housing bust, credit crunch so he's pretty good at analysing the market and the fundamentals



Anything else that he predicted that didn't come true? Or, is he a 100% correct all the time analyst? Must be pretty wealthy...


----------



## amory

Hmm Time will tell, says Michael.  then proceeds - quote

<< ....This should, according to economics 101 and with all things being otherwise equal, push the price of gold significantly higher. Its interesting to note that what happened to the price of lead (Pb), the heavy metal, when it took only a 3% reduction of supply in the form of a mine closing in 2007. The price of lead (Pb) rose more than 100% (from $.80/lb to around $1.80/lb). Its a natural to conclude that the price of gold, based on this larger change in demand / supply dynamics, will react even more substantially. We'll see. Only God knows what is going to happen in the future, especially with the crazy things happening now. >>

but all these arguments are not new.  we all know or should know by now, having been bombarded by JimSinclair & other "experts" reasoning for quite a number of years, that the POG should be somewhere in the upper atmospheric regions ... trouble is it isn't & as long as it can be manipulated by one or another, it won't be!  so much so that every now & again, it sinks right back into the "just another commodity" classification.  but as long as some peasant in Bangladesh sews a small goldbar into his garment before sneaking across the border into India, that too is a misrepresentation.

that is the facts ... as against idle hand-wringing should be & would be speculation.  that is where I am trying to supply the simple answer & what do I get in return?  shrugged off at best, abused and ridiculed more often than not.

i) massive inflation ... wait for it.  ii) a nice genuine collapse of the USDollar, such as they've been predicting since adam was a little boy ... it will happen when it does & iii) then Gold will take off into the stratosphere & not a day sooner ... serendipity!

<< Only God knows ...>>  well now that makes two of us.


----------



## MrBurns

Anyone ever heard of JWS multi level marketing or gold sheckels ?


----------



## michael_selway

amory said:


> Hmm Time will tell, says Michael.  then proceeds - quote
> 
> << ....This should, according to economics 101 and with all things being otherwise equal, push the price of gold significantly higher. Its interesting to note that what happened to the price of lead (Pb), the heavy metal, when it took only a 3% reduction of supply in the form of a mine closing in 2007. The price of lead (Pb) rose more than 100% (from $.80/lb to around $1.80/lb). Its a natural to conclude that the price of gold, based on this larger change in demand / supply dynamics, will react even more substantially. We'll see. Only God knows what is going to happen in the future, especially with the crazy things happening now. >>
> 
> but all these arguments are not new.  we all know or should know by now, having been bombarded by JimSinclair & other "experts" reasoning for quite a number of years, that the POG should be somewhere in the upper atmospheric regions ... trouble is it isn't & as long as it can be manipulated by one or another, it won't be!  so much so that every now & again, it sinks right back into the "just another commodity" classification.  but as long as some peasant in Bangladesh sews a small goldbar into his garment before sneaking across the border into India, that too is a misrepresentation.
> 
> that is the facts ... as against idle hand-wringing should be & would be speculation.  that is where I am trying to supply the simple answer & what do I get in return?  shrugged off at best, abused and ridiculed more often than not.
> 
> i) massive inflation ... wait for it.  ii) a nice genuine collapse of the USDollar, such as they've been predicting since adam was a little boy ... it will happen when it does & iii) then Gold will take off into the stratosphere & not a day sooner ... serendipity!
> 
> << Only God knows ...>>  well now that makes two of us.




Hm Interesting

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold90808/gold90808_controller.swf

thx

MS


----------



## amory

I looked that up Michael.  it is very clearly presented ....


----------



## bankit

michael_selway said:


> http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/200...al-banks-not-rolling-forward-gold-leases.html




Hi Michael,

Thanks for sharing that link with us 

The way I see it as it stands (today) there are 3 very positive clues as to thinking that Gold is due for a good solid move upwards. 

In order of happening:

1. The initial buying as investors start their move into the safety of Gold. This is happening now.

2. Ceasing of leasing Gold which will put the pressure on the physical market.

3. Strong buying from investors as inflation starts to raise its ugly head around the world and the USD collapses.

I see all of this occurring over the longer time frame of 12 to 24 months.

Bankit


----------



## Uncle Festivus

We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers 

Markets do not trust the governments' plans to keep struggling banks alive and investors will only calm down when the companies with bad assets are allowed to go bankrupt, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Friday."The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.

"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years." 
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Rogers warned.
"We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27097823


----------



## chops_a_must

The problem is UF, we are experiencing a massive _deflation_.

I think it may be a while before we get some big action, but I think it will come. Longer term positions are the way to go IMO. I'll be looking at cheap long dated calls.


----------



## kransky

chops_a_must said:


> The problem is UF, we are experiencing a massive _deflation_.




UF?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

chops_a_must said:


> The problem is UF, we are experiencing a massive _deflation_.
> 
> I think it may be a while before we get some big action, but I think it will come. Longer term positions are the way to go IMO. I'll be looking at cheap long dated calls.




Asset deflation yes but if they are successful at unclogging the sewer then we have a lot of liquidity looking for a yield somewhere equals monetary inflation equals stock surge?? Super stagflation while in recession?? Crazy stuff. Or it could just collapse in a screaming heap and go back to a global gold standard again?

Transition between seasons brings unsettled weather, but the season will arrive in the end? Kondratieff winter?

The December calls are telling us something?



kransky said:


> UF?



That would be me


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> Asset deflation yes but if they are successful at unclogging the sewer then we have a lot of liquidity looking for a yield somewhere equals monetary inflation equals stock surge?? Super stagflation while in recession?? Crazy stuff. Or it could just collapse in a screaming heap and go back to a global gold standard again?
> 
> Transition between seasons brings unsettled weather, but the season will arrive in the end? Kondratieff winter?
> 
> The December calls are telling us something?



Agreed.

But it's picking the tipping point that is hard... Not sure what happened to gold sales in Japan after 1990, that might give an indication.

The options were pretty flat Friday from what I could see UF.

If we rally here in equities, I think gold will be out of favour for the next little while, but it just provides a better opportunity to position for the next major move. I don't expect an outright tank though, and may add to positions in gold stocks.


----------



## kransky

Uncle Festivus said:


> That would be me


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> ........monetary inflation equals stock surge??




Speak of the devil 

All must be good again, our central bank saviours have unlimited money now.

Does that mean we can throw away the text books, not bother with that university degree in economics, because the solution is simply to create unlimited money?

And Ben Bernanke said it won't be inflationary 

In the greatest scramble for $USD's in history the best the US DX can do is about 83, off about 2% tonight to 81.5. When all have supped at the monetary trough of liquidity largesse the final nail in the greedy capitalism coffin will be hammered in? Transition time.

Gold bouncing around $830 support again, biding it's time?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

......is this a big picture or what????


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> Does that mean we can throw away the text books, not bother with that university degree in economics,



I'd say you should throw away the text books, and not bother about that economics degree, regardless UF.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> Gold bouncing around $830 support again, biding it's time?




Yes, I think it's getting close to lifting off.

I think it looks like it has to go sub 819 again, maybe as low as 803/4 first... then 1,000 should be challenged pretty quickly.


----------



## refined silver

Uncle Festivus said:


> In the greatest scramble for $USD's in history the best the US DX can do is about 83, off about 2% tonight to 81.5.




I think the $2trillion+ in currency swaps that the US has arranged with other Central Banks may be a factor in the current USD strength (depending on the mechanics of how it's been implemented). 

This is NOT long term strength!


----------



## skyQuake

Nice to see it decoupling from silver. Up 0.3% compared to silver tanking...
Think we're gonna see some sort of proper break soon.


----------



## BentRod

skyQuake said:


> Think we're gonna see some sort of proper break soon.




I tend to agree. 
Sure is hard to trade ATM though...even intraday.


----------



## chops_a_must

The timing was right for me to go long again...


----------



## BentRod

chops_a_must said:


> The timing was right for me to go long again...




Price?

Stop?


----------



## chops_a_must

BentRod said:


> Price?
> 
> Stop?



On a call.

Looking for the all time high to be nudged with this, this time, within a few weeks.


----------



## Kauri

Massive selling of European equities past 24-hrs, German sales alone exceeding US sales - total amount double US equity liquidation.  The Dow down 8%....sorry Uncle Ben, forget "R".. it is all about pricing in a "D"....  I guess it is going somewheres considered a _safe haven_??? as opposed to a _safe haven't_..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## bankit

Some interesting points are made in this article.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Unusually quiet on the gold front? $10-15 price range for 3 days now, and the Warwick Capper comes out at $850 like clockwork, after the caps earlier at $930 & $870? Bollinger bands must be getting close to touching now - imminent break out again?

Despite the contagion from the pleb shares, bargain hunters out in force in gold shares this arvo, some good bid volumes coming in eg NCM

I feel a geoplitical issue will make some sort of impact soon - not sure Pakistan & nuclear are a comfortable juxtaposition? Talk of Israel pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuke facilities before their US buddies are kicked out of Washington?


----------



## bankit

Obviously some people know what they are doing



*Zurich Bank's Vault Is `Full to the Top' With Gold (Update1) 
*
By Rachel Graham
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Zuercher Kantonalbank, the Swiss lender that manages about $107 billion, said its gold vault is full after a surge in demand from investors seeking a haven during the credit crunch. 
Assets in the Zurich-based bank's ZKB Gold ETF, backed by about 2.66 million ounces of the metal, have risen to a record for seven consecutive weeks. That amount of gold is worth about $2.25 billion at today's prices and equal to about 12 days of global production. 
``Demand is so strong,'' Susanne Toren, a metals analyst at the bank, said by telephone from Zurich today. ``Our vaults are full right up to the top.'' 
Investors are buying gold coins and bars, and exchange- traded funds backed by physical metal, after banks including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the largest ETF backed by bullion, advanced to a record 770.64 tons (24.78 million ounces) on Oct. 10. 
Zuercher Kantonalbank, which is owned by the Canton of Zurich, also manages funds for silver, platinum and palladium. Sibylle Umiker, a spokeswoman for the bank in Zurich, confirmed the vault is full and said the company is looking for more space in Switzerland. 
Rand Refinery Ltd., the world's largest gold refinery, in August said it ran out of South African Krugerrands. The Perth Mint, producer of 10 percent of the world's bullion, doubled output in the past six months. Muenze Oesterreich AG, the Austrian mint, increased production of its Philharmonic bullion coin almost fourfold. 
The amount of gold held by nine ETFs and two closed-ended funds monitored by London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. reached a record 1,128.7 tons on Sept. 30, 25 percent more than at the end of last year. 
To contact the reporter on this story: Rachel Graham in London at rgraham13@


----------



## explod

Coincidentally, a leaflet appeared in the mail box today which promotes a new 1 ounce silver coin being produced by the Perth mint, the cost of each coin, wait for it.........$82.50 each plus $6.50 ship and handling. In a nice case of course.  With the official silver price of Aussie silver at $15.66 ,, that is not a bad cop.

Or are the Kitco charts telling the truth right now?

Interesting time for a gold bug indeed.


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> Coincidentally, a leaflet appeared in the mail box today which promotes a new 1 ounce silver coin being produced by the Perth mint, the cost of each coin, wait for it.........$82.50 each plus $6.50 ship and handling. In a nice case of course.  With the official silver price of Aussie silver at $15.66 ,, that is not a bad cop.
> 
> Or are the Kitco charts telling the truth right now?
> 
> Interesting time for a gold bug indeed.



They always sell at a massive premium.

The bullion silver coins were about 30 bucks when I last checked...


----------



## Reealjrd

Hello All,

             It is true gold per ounze may reach 350-410 and the inflation rate might be effect greatly. The same can happen with the indian economy.


----------



## kransky

Reealjrd said:


> Hello All,
> 
> It is true gold per ounze may reach 350-410 and the inflation rate might be effect greatly. The same can happen with the indian economy.




gold per ounce is currently around $850 USD or $1300 AUD..

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


----------



## bankit

This guy has been waiting for gold to go up and he looks like I feel


----------



## M34N

Uncle Festivus said:


> Unusually quiet on the gold front? $10-15 price range for 3 days now, and the Warwick Capper comes out at $850 like clockwork, after the caps earlier at $930 & $870? Bollinger bands must be getting close to touching now - imminent break out again?
> 
> Despite the contagion from the pleb shares, bargain hunters out in force in gold shares this arvo, some good bid volumes coming in eg NCM
> 
> I feel a geoplitical issue will make some sort of impact soon - not sure Pakistan & nuclear are a comfortable juxtaposition? Talk of Israel pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuke facilities before their US buddies are kicked out of Washington?




Well there goes your $15 price range, down that amount right now 

It's pretty funny, with this financial crisis, mess on the markets and fear all around, Bernanke talking about rate cuts, talk of inflation; but the 'safe haven' gold has gone hardly anywhere.

I'm a firm believer in gold because of these reasons, but it's still sitting there and, like right now, actually going down! What's it going to take to go up?


----------



## barrett

The H&S might bring a trading opportunity either way.
Gold stocks leading the way.. hopefully not...

Given that savings deposits are being protected by the Fed, the main driver for gold is still inflation.. but investors won't be too worried about inflation until the markets stabilise.. in the meantime they're more worried about "the return _of_ their money than the return _on_ their money".. so they buy treasury bonds for their guaranteed nominal value.  It won't be until the markets stabilise that people will start to worry that treasury bonds are returning -7% or -8%pa.  But gold's rise will come well before that time, since gold anticipates, rather than responds to, inflation - and generally does so about 9-12 months in advance.  So I would say that selling long term holdings based on 'deflation fears' at this point would be a mistake.  

I hold a lot of gold stocks, but I haven't bought any in over two years, because I expected some sort of collateral damage _in between _the credit cycle correcting itself and the central banks responding.  I didn't think it would be this bad though... the US gold stocks have really been bashed into a pulp in the past two months.  I think it will be time to buy soon but first let's see what happens on the chart... looking at the fundamentals for what next is useless in this lunacy!


----------



## amory

I have been saying for years ... elsewhere if not here ... that the Fed is only interested in the dollar.  gold & the market can drop by the wayside, but the USdollar must be saved!

even the experts are beginning to realize the truth of this:

<< "Gold's fared relatively better than other assets in the financial crisis, but with price swings and central banks sales, some investors may prefer cash now,'' Wallace Ng, precious metals trader in Asia at Fortis Bank, said today by phone from Hong Kong.  >>

Investors prefer cash, well what do you know?  the worthless fiat-currency, not worth the paper its printed on, how many times have we heard that?  say what you like about Bernanke & co, but the man in the street feels safe close to the Fed ... via the dollar.

and that's bad news for gold.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

M34N said:


> Well there goes your $15 price range, down that amount right now
> 
> It's pretty funny, with this financial crisis, mess on the markets and fear all around, Bernanke talking about rate cuts, talk of inflation; but the 'safe haven' gold has gone hardly anywhere.
> 
> I'm a firm believer in gold because of these reasons, but it's still sitting there and, like right now, actually going down! What's it going to take to go up?




Doh - would you believe $20 then .

It's all relative really - when compared to other stuff gold is not only holding it's ground (US DX) it's actually appreciating against all else! As Barrett says, gold will do it's thing in it's own time, when Joe Public realises that even US treasuries are not the place to park your life savings. China is starting to realise this now, having been sold a pup with Freddie & Fannie toxic sludge.


----------



## Reealjrd

Gold prices for now in forex will be uncertain. While in indian market they at their hike. Gold per ounze might come down to $750. As this condition might come seeing the US economial conditions.


----------



## barrett

amory said:


> I have been saying for years ... elsewhere if not here ... that the Fed is only interested in the dollar.  gold & the market can drop by the wayside, but the USdollar must be saved!
> 
> even the experts are beginning to realize the truth of this:
> 
> << "Gold's fared relatively better than other assets in the financial crisis, but with price swings and central banks sales, some investors may prefer cash now,'' Wallace Ng, precious metals trader in Asia at Fortis Bank, said today by phone from Hong Kong.  >>
> 
> Investors prefer cash, well what do you know?  the worthless fiat-currency, not worth the paper its printed on, how many times have we heard that?  say what you like about Bernanke & co, but the man in the street feels safe close to the Fed ... via the dollar.
> 
> and that's bad news for gold.




Amory, your view may be right in the short term, but be aware that the US dollar has experienced a strong rally at the beginning of every global economic slowdown since 1971.  This is nothing new.  Nor is the propensity of governments to sacrifice the value of their currency when faced with unrepayable debts, as the US Fed and Treasury are doing now.  I respect your view, but it's going to take more than a short US dollar rally in the midst of the biggest US dollar devaluation in history to prove it correct.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Yes, I think it's getting close to lifting off.
> 
> I think it looks like it has to go sub 819 again, maybe as low as 803/4 first... then 1,000 should be challenged pretty quickly.




Gessus... blink and it's gone... 797.


----------



## Kauri

*Gold Price - Where is it heading?* .... not sure... but it is going there in a hand cart...

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## hitmanlam

Looking at the charts, looks like 800 is the support for now.  Its abit of a pschological one.  If it drops to to under 785, the 750 is the major support and it'd should settle there.


----------



## Whiskers

Got a bit too much acceleration up and overshot me target a bit. Hope it don't do that again or I'll have to re-evaluate my analysis. 

That must have been due to better than expected CPI and jobless claims, maybe.

Watch where this settles now and get set to go long... very long I hope.


----------



## kransky

Whiskers said:


> That must have been due to better than expected CPI and jobless claims, maybe.




or maybe someone needing some cash?


----------



## Whiskers

kransky said:


> or maybe someone needing some cash?




Yeah, was wondering that afterwards.

Gold, oil, base metals all went down but the USDX is up and looks like the US indicies are going up again.

I know... musta been the PPT dumping some gold etc to pump up the stocks... er buy into their banks cheap.


----------



## barrett

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, was wondering that afterwards.
> 
> Gold, oil, base metals all went down but the USDX is up and looks like the US indicies are going up again.
> 
> I know... musta been the PPT dumping some gold etc to pump up the stocks... er buy into their banks cheap.




$40 down in 10 minutes = a run of sell stops after it broke through the neckline of the 3-month H&S, no mystery there IMO.


----------



## Whiskers

barrett said:


> $40 down in 10 minutes = a run of sell stops after it broke through the neckline of the 3-month H&S, no mystery there IMO.




Oh yeah, I see your H&S chart now. That suggests heading for the low 700's.

I'm hopin it works out somethin like this.


----------



## Indie

I think Gold is about to crash, get ready for $600. The fight to cash continues.


----------



## explod

Indie said:


> I think Gold is about to crash, get ready for $600. The fight to cash continues.





They are printing too much money, so cash is trash.  Short term fear drives the cash but when the penny really drops watch out. 

I THINK gold is about to go up.

I KNOW that gold has been the best performer throughout the rout of the last 18 months even if only holding its own 

So we shall see.

Notice the long term pennant formation was not broken to the downside but a break one way or the other by March next year will occur.


----------



## Ageo

Indie said:


> I think Gold is about to crash, get ready for $600. The fight to cash continues.




lolol who would want worthless pieces of paper?


----------



## GreatPig

explod said:


> They are printing too much money, so cash is trash



What about all the billions, possibly trillions, that has been lost recently? Is that not contracting the money supply (the total money supply, including credit)?

GP


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It will be 600us maybe a bit lower by Christmas.

it always tanks after times like this.

gg


----------



## explod

GreatPig said:


> What about all the billions, possibly trillions, that has been lost recently? Is that not contracting the money supply (the total money supply, including credit)?
> 
> GP




It is now becoming clear that most of what has been lost was not there in the first place.   What is now junk debt was counted as part of a companies assets.

Most of the trillions were computer entries with no physical backing.   

I have trotted this out before:  Allen  Bond who went to gaol for it, brought a house, with that equity he borrowed to by three more houses and with that counted as equity he brought 9 more houses, you get the drift, then 27 houses.    Will they send Wall Street to gaol (maybe a few isolated CEO's) ???

Analogy a bit rough on the edges but is the best I can do to understand the mess.

More paper money being printed now to kick start the economies.  Like shares, more issues dilute the value of the whole.


----------



## metric

cash was cool in trem deposits that were (are) paying 7-8%....but that wont last much longer. soon rates will fall and the massive ammount of cash being 'invented' will increase inlation.

gold is good. now is the time to buy...


.


----------



## Reealjrd

Hello All,

           Very correct gold is going up. But this does not indicate that it is going to again cross the $800 mark  so soon. It will cross this mark by Mar or April of 2009.


----------



## Reealjrd

Predection about gold vewing this present market is very risky. Because market is very uncertain. Any prediction on gold might be risky for trading.


----------



## Indie

explod said:


> They are printing too much money, so cash is trash.  Short term fear drives the cash but when the penny really drops watch out.
> 
> I THINK gold is about to go up.
> 
> I KNOW that gold has been the best performer throughout the rout of the last 18 months even if only holding its own
> 
> So we shall see.
> 
> Notice the long term pennant formation was not broken to the downside but a break one way or the other by March next year will occur.





Credit is money in western economies. 

Also, the amount of printing is a drop in the ocean compared to the implosion of credit taking place. Besides, the credit markets are frozen. The mechanism (banks) that is used to distribute newly printed dollars is broken. It's one thing for governments to guarantee savings, but they need to guarantee debt just to keep prices at par level. Debt is 30 or 40 times deposits. By now everyone should be able to see that governments are powerless to stem the tide. 

Gold is going to hammered. It will have it's day again but no way I would by gold or CHF right in this environment.

But as you say, we shall see.


----------



## barrett

Indie said:


> I think Gold is about to crash, get ready for $600. The fight to cash continues.




The way US gold stocks are behaving, down 10% night on night, and silver falling to $9.20, I'm looking to hedge with a short around 825 if possible.  The initial target would be the pennant support at around 750.  Happier if I'm wrong though!


----------



## GreatPig

explod said:


> It is now becoming clear that most of what has been lost was not there in the first place.



While I've seen that stated before, mostly by proponents of the inflation argument, I can't see how that can be the case. If that money was only fairy tale money, then the loss of it is only a fairy tale loss, so banks aren't really going broke, and the Fed is only pumping fairy tale money into them as compensation.

OTOH, if they are real losses, then they must represent a contraction of the money supply. And if the rescue packages won't be enough, then the contraction must be greater than the expansion caused by the bailouts, giving a result of net deflation.



> More paper money being printed now to kick start the economies. Like shares, more issues dilute the value of the whole.



I think wrong on both counts. More money being put into circulation now to counter the deflation caused by credit contraction. I don't think the economy has stopped yet to require kick starting. The main problem is that a bubble is a bubble, and keeping it inflated (but not necessarily inflating it further) doesn't get you back to a better situation.

As for shares, issuing more doesn't dilute the value of the whole provided they are issued at market value. If you double the number of shares, you also double the value of the company, since it now has all that cash which all shareholders own a part of. If they are issued below market value, or for nothing (say an executive just gets given some as part of his salary package), then yes, they do dilute the remainder.

I think the risk of hyperinflation will be at the end of the credit crunch, once the deflation stops. By then the economy may be so depressed that the central banks may want to continue to pump money into it for stimulus.

GP


----------



## hitmanlam

Some good points Great Pig.

I agree with your point on inflation.  For the near term, inflation will not be the major issue in the US.  Energy is falling, the whole economy is slowing down.  In fact, deflation could be occuring at this point.  So as long as the US is in a recession, inflation will not be the issue.  Only once we see the economy start kicking again (late next year)  will we see the full effects of the government pumping money into the system.  Its abit weird to say this but only when the economy starts recovering again do i see the POG going up (due to inflation reason).  Until then, I am actually quite bearish on gold for now.  Any push up will be met by a bigger push down.  In the near term, i think its heading south.

Short term, I certainly wouldn't be going long at this point as i think theres too much risk and abit more downside to go.  Maybe 6 months from now, I'll be reconsidering buying gold again.  All imo ofcoarse.


----------



## Indie

Most of the trillions were computer entries with no physical backing. 

This is incorrect.

The money, including computer entries, was issued against physical assets, such as stocks and property. Otherwise it's unsecured credit. Alan Bond borrowed money against assets. He didn't just say "give me a million bucks!".  The bank put his equity on their books as collateral. And that included whatever asset he was using the credit to buy.

In an environment where M3 money supply is climbing at a higher rate than inflation, cash is trash, and hard assets are the place to be. This is the perfect environment for speculative borrowing since interest rates are effectively negative. This was what the last 25 years was all about.

As credit shrinks the total pool of available money that is used to price these assets is shrinking. Right now the stock market is the harbinger wholesale asset re-pricing. Cash is king.


----------



## Indie

In an environment where M3 money supply is climbing at a higher rate than inflation, cash is trash, and hard assets are the place to be. 

Sorry, meant to say when M3 money is rising faster than INTEREST RATES, cash is trash.


----------



## barrett

potential bullish wedge support here.  Fib levels are WRT recent 736-930 move.
4hr Alpari


----------



## rederob

Indie said:


> Most of the trillions were computer entries with no physical backing.
> This is incorrect.
> The money, including computer entries, was issued against physical assets, such as stocks and property. Otherwise it's unsecured credit. Alan Bond borrowed money against assets. He didn't just say "give me a million bucks!".  The bank put his equity on their books as collateral. And that included whatever asset he was using the credit to buy.



Nice in principle.
In practice these "assets" were actually debt instruments.
No different to the subprime debt repackaging principles that the former Fed head considered as foundations of the investment market.
Indeed, the financial meltdown remains in its infancy because the game of pass the parcel has had few layers unwrapped to date.
More downside will remain with gold as funds try to claw back cash from past bets.
Am amazed gold has not fallen further!


----------



## hitmanlam

Well it doesn't look good for gold bulls right now.  Price is now drifting down in a current downtrend.  Next strong support is at 750.  Buyers will try and come and try and hold that price.  I dunno what will happen if prices don't hold up there.  I'd be shorting it now definitely.


----------



## michael_selway

hitmanlam said:


> Well it doesn't look good for gold bulls right now.  Price is now drifting down in a current downtrend.  Next strong support is at 750.  Buyers will try and come and try and hold that price.  I dunno what will happen if prices don't hold up there.  I'd be shorting it now definitely.




Hm you can still short these days?




thx

MS


----------



## barrett

In tonight's discussion people seemed to be forgetting that it's quite possible to have an inflationary recession, as the US experienced during much of the 1970s. 

Let's not get too caught up in money supply arguments either.  All measures of money supply increased astronomically between 1980 and 2000, and yet the gold price steadily plunged by two thirds.  

So what makes gold go up?  When banks and markets are actually functioning (unlike now) -- * gold goes up when inflation rates exceed interest rates.* 

Gold doesn't need to have *a thing *to do with what the equity markets or housing markets are doing -- as evidenced by the 30-fold rise of gold right through the multiple inflationary recessions of the 1970s.

Something else - over 70% of the gold bought in the world every year is for jewellery, most of that is Indian buying, mostly between November and January.  Deepavali is coming up in about two weeks.  I have my doubts that Indian farmers are planning to switch to US Treasury Bonds instead this year.  If several billion Asians think gold is the ultimate currency, I'm not about to pick an argument with them!


----------



## Kauri

The spread between Eurodollar and T-bill rates (TED) ( thanks Nick) has today fallen to its lowest levels since September 15th. Although the spread remains at elevated levels, it has fallen nearly by half from its September 24 peak. Probably a better guide to how the credit crisis is being corrected versus tracking the stock market, thus also a good guide on safe-haven gold... if you subscribe to the safe haven status of gold that is...   

Cheers
................Kauri


----------



## Indie

Let's not get too caught up in money supply arguments either. 
So what makes gold go up?  When banks and markets are actually functioning (unlike now) -- * gold goes up when inflation rates exceed interest rates.* 

This is a contradiction. Inflation is purely monetary. Increase in money supply is inflationary. Decrease in money supply is deflationary. Nothing more, nothing less. It's all about money supply.

Gold was in a huge speculative bubble in the 70's. Priced at over $2000 oz in todays money. The fact that it didn't move much for 2 decades is just a reflection of the how big the bubble was. So through the 80's and most of the 90's it fell in value (in real terms) and it hasn't bounced back to it's 70's high. Lots of speculators are betting we will reach those 70's highs again.   

Gold is bought by money. It is not money. When China crashes we'll see if they want dollars or Gold. I'm thinking they will trade their gold for dollars. 

The bull market for Gold is about to undergo the same correction of every other bull market. I think we are heading to $600, then lower.


----------



## Sean K

Indie said:


> Inflation is purely monetary. Increase in money supply is inflationary. Decrease in money supply is deflationary. Nothing more, nothing less. It's all about money supply.



Up for argument.

Wiki gives a decent overview.


----------



## rederob

Indie said:


> Gold is bought by money. It is not money. When *China *crashes we'll see if they want dollars or Gold. I'm thinking they will trade their gold for dollars.




The Chinese understand a tangible asset.
Why would you want something that is no longer underpinned by value?
People now buying the greenback are as stupid as people that bought into subprime CDOs.  
You can't create "value" from a printing press.
If you think gold and silver are not valuable in the present climate, try buying some "immediately" (ie, not a futures bid, or a forward delivery of the precious metal) and tell me the difference between the present chart prices and the actual paid prices.
If there was no demand for the metal, spot prices would have dried up and gold would now be in the sub-$500 range - on par with price falls amongst the base metals.


----------



## Indie

rederob said:


> T
> If there was no demand for the metal, spot prices would have dried up and gold would now be in the sub-$500 range - on par with price falls amongst the base metals.




It's coming. 

Btw I bought a stack of Greenbacks a few weeks ago at .83. I'm pretty happy with that purchase. There seem to be lots of people happy to buy back those same Greenbacks at 20% more today. I might exchange those Greenbacks for Gold or CHF one day, but that day is a long way off. 

There is a mad rush for dollars right now and there just aren't enough to go around. The printing is no where near enough to cover the destruction of credit, even if the money was reaching the credit markets - which it isn't. Right now, I'd rather be in cash than anything else. Greenbacks in particular.

Let's take a one year time frame and revisit this thread from time to time. Where would you rather be? Greenback or Gold?


----------



## rederob

Indie said:


> Let's take a one year time frame and revisit this thread from time to time. Where would you rather be? Greenback or Gold?



*GOLD*
Chickens come home to roost.
The greenback is in its death throes.
Until governments guaranteed bank deposits the "cash is king" mantra was a crown of thorns.
Strong currencies are backed by tangibles.  Intermittent price strength does not imply the currency is strong: It presently means it's "in demand".


----------



## barrett

Indie said:


> Let's not get too caught up in money supply arguments either.
> So what makes gold go up?  When banks and markets are actually functioning (unlike now) -- * gold goes up when inflation rates exceed interest rates.*
> 
> This is a contradiction. Inflation is purely monetary. Increase in money supply is inflationary. Decrease in money supply is deflationary. Nothing more, nothing less. It's all about money supply.



Yes, the word inflation technically refers only to monetary inflation.  I was referring to consumer price inflation.  

My point is that consumer price inflation exceeding the interest rate available on bank deposits naturally causes people to seek a store of value that does not pay a negative yield.  It's just common sense.  I'm attaching a chart showing that it also works in the real world - gold rises when CPI exceeds interest rates - ie when the real interest rate is negative.  Can you post something similar for the effect of money supply on gold?



Indie said:


> There is a mad rush for dollars right now and there just aren't enough to go around. The printing is no where near enough to cover the destruction of credit, even if the money was reaching the credit markets - which it isn't. Right now, I'd rather be in cash than anything else. Greenbacks in particular.
> 
> Let's take a one year time frame and revisit this thread from time to time. Where would you rather be? Greenback or Gold?




Right.  I saw an estimate on the news earlier in the week that the destruction of wealth internationally in this credit crunch so far has been close to $50 trillion - but the central bank plan of last weekend for instance injected just $6 trillion.  So a lot of wealth is being wiped out.  I just wanted to point out that it's not a foregone conclusion from this that gold will continue to go down.  It's still possible to have an inflationary recession.

The _short term _trend is down.  US dollars may outperform short term, as they have at the beginning of every global economic slowdown since the early '70s - but on a one year timeframe, I'll be holding gold, because I think consumer price inflation is going to show up again before anyone thinks.


----------



## Indie

[QUOTE=rederob;351044]*GOLD*
Chickens come home to roost.
The greenback is in its death throes.
Until governments guaranteed bank deposits the "cash is king" mantra was a crown of thorns.
Strong currencies are backed by tangibles.  Intermittent price strength does not imply the currency is strong: It presently means it's "in demand".[/QUOTE]

We are only interested in whether the USD remains more "in demand" in relation to Gold over the next 12 months from the present par level of: USD$780 = 1 oz Gold. 

So let's see.


----------



## barrett

Here is a graph of the Dow Jones during 1973 and 1974. 
It fell from 1075 down to 575 - so it nearly halved in two years - one of the worst developed economy bear markets in history.  Over the same period gold went from $65/oz to $195/oz.  Indie, I agree with your general assertion that a serious credit contraction is likely to be bearish for all asset prices - but prices of hard assets (like gold) and paper assets (like stocks) can also go in quite different directions.


----------



## GreatPig

barrett said:


> My point is that consumer price inflation exceeding the interest rate available on bank deposits naturally causes people to seek a store of value that does not pay a negative yield.



I agree with that, but is that '73-'75 period really a good example? The price of gold was effectively fixed up until Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971, and according to this article (PDF), the price was so low that many gold miners had shut up shop.



> In both prior cycles, gold prices were held at unrealistically low levels during the peak years to hide inflation and make governments look good. In each case, much higher gold prices were subsequently a necessary part of the adjustment process. By the end of the last cycle, gold prices were so low relative to mining costs that much of the gold mining industry had closed down amidst a level of devastation not since approached until today.



In that extract "both prior cycles" refers to pre-1935 and 1935-1971. "Today" means around 2000.

Once gold effectively floated, the price would naturally be expected to rise under those conditions.

GP


----------



## Indie

barrett said:


> Here is a graph of the Dow Jones during 1973 and 1974.
> It fell from 1075 down to 575 - so it nearly halved in two years - one of the worst developed economy bear markets in history.  Over the same period gold went from $65/oz to $195/oz.  Indie, I agree with your general assertion that a serious credit contraction is likely to be bearish for all asset prices - but prices of hard assets (like gold) and paper assets (like stocks) can also go in quite different directions.




No argument from me on this. 

I never suggested that Gold moves in tandem with stock prices. And this isn't 70's style stagflation either. Do you see any supply shortages? Do you see rising wages? All I see is over supply and rising inventories (ask BHP and RIO), falling wages, rising unemployment and falling commodity and asset prices. Sounds a lot like deflation. Everything is being re-priced and in this phase there's only one place to be - cash. One by one the bubbles are popping all around us. But we agree on this, so let's enjoy some music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etfVMtCq9Oc


----------



## Reealjrd

barrett said:


> The way US gold stocks are behaving, down 10% night on night, and silver falling to $9.20, I'm looking to hedge with a short around 825 if possible.  The initial target would be the pennant support at around 750.  Happier if I'm wrong though!




It is true that the US gold stocks are down. But before hedgeing any position please study the market carefully. Because this time the maket is not certain it can bounce back any time.


----------



## IFocus

Any one got a long term inflation chart they could post?


----------



## refined silver

Indie said:


> Gold is bought by money. It is not money. When China crashes we'll see if they want dollars or Gold. I'm thinking they will trade their gold for dollars.




5,000 years of human history says you are wrong. Every paper currency ever used has eventually returned to its intrinsic value of 0. Gold has been accepted as money for basically all of human history. It can't just be created at will like paper.

As for China, they already have $1.7t of USD paper and very little gold reserves (1-2%). Various officials have already publicly stated they need to diversify from USD and increase gold holdings.

In the 1930s the US stopped re-valued gold upwards from $20-$35/ounce - 75% in one night. In the 70s, gold's price peak, basically balanced the external liabilities of the US against their stated gold reserves. The same will happen again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

refined silver said:


> As for China, they already have $1.7t of USD paper and very little gold reserves (1-2%). Various officials have already publicly stated they need to diversify from USD and increase gold holdings.




China is calling the shot's with the US - yes sir, no sir Mr Hu! They are about the only, maybe the last thing holding all this together at the moment. It is in everybodies (the central banks) interest to keep the fiat jalopy on the road so that is why all the manipulation is via the currency markets, and gold gets the collateral damage as well as some well timed technical selling.

------------------

One observation, if the global governments have found the magic panacea with the move to back all bank deposits, does that mean that if there is a run on the banks that everyone will get their money? 

Apparently, for Australia, it works out to $700 BILLION cold, hard cash.

Has anyone tried printing $700 BILLION cash?

But keep it to yourself, we don't want the public to work out that it's physically impossible to make good on THAT promise?

3rd call for the end of the credit crisis? Starting to look like Groundhog Day, but Ben & Hank don't seem to learn from their mistakes?


----------



## refined silver

Uncle Festivus said:


> gold gets the collateral damage as well as some well timed technical selling.




Huge redemptions from index funds are creating massive forced selling of gold and commodities, many of whom were long-only. 

However there is a MASSIVE disconnect with physical markets. Physical silver is already at a 40-50% premium over the paper price. Physical gold is at a 10-25% premium. 

The chart below is a couple of weeks old, and it is the BUY PRICE! What dealers will buy your physical silver for. If you want to buy from them, the price is a couple of dollars higher. Tulving have offered Jason Hommel $4 over spot silver for his 90% silver bags that he is auctioning off , and are happy to have him publicly state their price. He intends to rebuy on COMEX, standing for delivery, to make money on the arbitrage.

Paper silver and gold WILL default at some point in my humble opinion (ETFs included).


----------



## chops_a_must

refined silver said:


> However there is a MASSIVE disconnect with physical markets. Physical silver is already at a 40-50% premium over the paper price. Physical gold is at a 10-25% premium. He intends to rebuy on COMEX, standing for delivery, to make money on the arbitrage.



Lol.

That will cause all manner of ****.


----------



## Indie

refined silver said:


> 5,000 years of human history says you are wrong.






refined silver said:


> Wrong about what? Everyone knows all fiats end the same way. I'm not arguing any different. I'm betting gold takes a big hit from deflationary pressures over the next 12 months, maybe more. There have been plenty of periods throughout history where fiat has out-performed gold.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I've done a fairly brutal reassessment of my smsf  this weekend.

apart from some kgrams of physical gold I've hidden about the place, I'm bearish . I reckon its going to tank, $300 US or thereabouts after the US elections. 

Its always good to have gold in case the whole world goes to s**t, but stocks or futures are gone atm imo.

gg


----------



## refined silver

Indie said:


> 5,000 years of human history says you are wrong.
> 
> Wrong about what? Everyone knows all fiats end the same way. I'm not arguing any different. I'm betting gold takes a big hit from deflationary pressures over the next 12 months, maybe more. There have been plenty of periods throughout history where fiat has out-performed gold.




1. You said "Gold is not money". I said 5000 years of human history proves you wrong, where gold has always been and still is accepted as money. 

2. You then contradict yourself by saying you agree that all fiats go to zero eventually, showing that fiat is not true money. 

3. You also said China will sell its gold to get dollars. If you think its going to sell its 1-2% gold reserves to add to its $1.7t USD, good luck to you.

4. If you expect gold to take a big hit, get short now.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

refined silver said:


> 1. You said "Gold is not money". I said 5000 years of human history proves you wrong, where gold has always been and still is accepted as money.
> 
> 2. You then contradict yourself by saying you agree that all fiats go to zero eventually, showing that fiat is not true money.
> 
> 3. You also said China will sell its gold to get dollars. If you think its going to sell its 1-2% gold reserves to add to its $1.7t USD, good luck to you.
> 
> 4. If you expect gold to take a big hit, get short now.




It is always wise to buy physical gold and bury it in your backyard.

Stocks and futures are in for a flaying.

gg


----------



## refined silver

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is always wise to buy physical gold and bury it in your backyard.
> gg




True. But watch out for those google earth satelites watching where you put it!


----------



## Indie

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've done a fairly brutal reassessment of my smsf  this weekend.
> 
> apart from some kgrams of physical gold I've hidden about the place, I'm bearish . I reckon its going to tank, $300 US or thereabouts after the US elections.
> 
> Its always good to have gold in case the whole world goes to s**t, but stocks or futures are gone atm imo.
> 
> gg







refined silver said:


> 1. You said "Gold is not money". I said 5000 years of human history proves you wrong, where gold has always been and still is accepted as money.
> 
> 2. You then contradict yourself by saying you agree that all fiats go to zero eventually, showing that fiat is not true money.
> 
> 3. You also said China will sell its gold to get dollars. If you think its going to sell its 1-2% gold reserves to add to its $1.7t USD, good luck to you.
> 
> 4. If you expect gold to take a big hit, get short now.




Well if you want to completely ignore the context of my views then go ahead and suit yourself. If you can be bothered going back through the thread it's clear that you are misrepresenting me. 

This is my position regardless of your misrepresentations:

I have bet on USD strength and put my money where my mouth is, so far I have outperformed gold. I'm counting on this to continue for the next 12 months. I see $600/oz coming soon. So, yeah, I'm shorting gold. Are you buying at $780/oz? Where is your money? If you expect gold to rise in the coming months get in. Top up if you already have some, you seem to be inferring it's a bargain right now.

When the deflationary cycle looks to be bottoming out I will consider gold and CHF. This is there in the thread, open your eyes hero. It's there.

Fiat is money until fiat collapses. So yes fiat is money, you can buy real stuff with it. US Fiat is outperforming gold this year. Fiat is proving to be a better store of wealth right now. I'm betting on this continuing for the next 12 months, at least. Yes, I am putting money on this. Are going the other way? Please let us all know.

As far as China goes, they will not be spending their $1,7tr reserves on more gold during the deflationary cycle. They won't be pushing the price up. The Chinese public, to whom I was referring, won't be buying more gold either, they will be selling whatever they have to put food on the table. Where did I previously refer to the Chinese governments gold reserves and specifically China selling them? Maybe you've just assumed a bunch of things, not read through the thread properly, and now you're trying to marginalize my views.


----------



## refined silver

A Nobel prize winning economist who is already an advisor to the Chinese govt, (and so has presumably already suggested this to them) said that China should buy all the IMF gold should they sell it as is sometimes talked about.

http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1224401684.php


----------



## refined silver

Indie said:


> Well if you want to completely ignore the context of my views then go ahead and suit yourself. If you can be bothered going back through the thread it's clear that you are misrepresenting me.




I suggest you're the one who has suddenly appeared on thread and hasn't read it properly. If you had read, you would know I am fully long and unmargined.

There was no misquote. You said Gold is not money. That is wrong, fullstop.

As to China, you said   


> When China crashes we'll see if they want dollars or Gold. I'm thinking they will trade their gold for dollars.




You didn't specify govt or people, but I assumed govt, and they are definately not trading gold for dollars. As for people, the Chinese have only been able to buy gold freely in the last year or two, so they don't yet have great supplies to sell. Since they have seen a falling USD for the last few years,(last 3 months excepted) and Asians have known and trusted gold for thousands of years, I can't really see your scenario happening.

As for waiting 12 months to see which is better Au or USD in the next year, thats a fair test. However, I think there'll be too much water under the bridge for anyone to remember or bother with it.


----------



## IFocus

Indie said:


> Well if you want to completely ignore the context of my views then go ahead and suit yourself. If you can be bothered going back through the thread it's clear that you are misrepresenting me.
> 
> This is my position regardless of your misrepresentations:
> 
> I have bet on USD strength and put my money where my mouth is, so far I have outperformed gold. I'm counting on this to continue for the next 12 months. I see $600/oz coming soon. So, yeah, I'm shorting gold. Are you buying at $780/oz? Where is your money? If you expect gold to rise in the coming months get in. Top up if you already have some, you seem to be inferring it's a bargain right now.
> 
> When the deflationary cycle looks to be bottoming out I will consider gold and CHF. This is there in the thread, open your eyes hero. It's there.
> 
> Fiat is money until fiat collapses. So yes fiat is money, you can buy real stuff with it. US Fiat is outperforming gold this year. Fiat is proving to be a better store of wealth right now. I'm betting on this continuing for the next 12 months, at least. Yes, I am putting money on this. Are going the other way? Please let us all know.
> 
> As far as China goes, they will not be spending their $1,7tr reserves on more gold during the deflationary cycle. They won't be pushing the price up. The Chinese public, to whom I was referring, won't be buying more gold either, they will be selling whatever they have to put food on the table. Where did I previously refer to the Chinese governments gold reserves and specifically China selling them? Maybe you've just assumed a bunch of things, not read through the thread properly, and now you're trying to marginalize my views.




Indie thanks for your contribution your comments make a great deal of sense to me, appreciate you looking at time frames.

RF the limited knowledge I have on the cycle of metal money and fiat money tells me there are many swings and roundabouts along the way before it completes the full cycle.


----------



## refined silver

A good summary of the paper mkt/physical mkt disconnect.



> *The Bullion Market Versus The Paper Gold Market - An Explanation. Author: Jim Sinclair
> 
> Dear Friends,
> 
> 1. It is axiomatic that the most leveraged gold market most often (95 percent of the time) sets the price of any cash market. First derivatives (listed futures) commands price.
> 2. This remains true as long as the COMEX warehouse of gold is NOT meaningfully depleted by long gold contracts by taking delivery from the exchange warehouse.
> 3. As long as an exchange maintains a warehouse that historically overwhelms historical demand for delivery the first derivative, The COMEX listed gold future, will be the primary cause of price.
> 4. Taking delivery from the COMEX warehouse is not an easy process as the system is designed not to violate your contract but to be a world-class pain in the ass.
> 5. The COMEX requires re-assays, assuming you wish to re-deliver. This then places another raving pain in the ass in your way.
> 6. The COMEX market is effectively an international 24-hour market as there is no location where you cannot buy or sell a COMEX clone.
> 7. Cash bullion gold as opposed to the semi cash markets that non-USA banks trade is the only totally private means of buying and selling gold.
> 8. As currency problems increase, first the knowledgeable public such as you clean out the coin market.
> 9. This is the first time that the international coin markets have been cleaned out everywhere. This did not happen globally in the 70s.
> 10. Large gold bars are still available in major markets but the backup inventory is getting low.
> 11. As long as the COMEX warehouse remains adequate and large bars still are available, the paper market, the leveraged COMEX market, will rule the price.
> 12. Only with a decline in COMEX warehouse inventories and a run down in large bar supplies of the cash market will the cash bullion market command the price of the COMEX futures market.
> 13. It was not the buying by the Hunts that caused silver to move above $30 into the $50 area, but rather the universal belief that they would take delivery, which would deplete or exceeded the COMEX warehouse supply.
> 14. The War between paper gold and bullion gold is a war to determine which will take command of the price of gold, nothing more, nothing less. There will be no two markets trading at different prices. All this battle is about is IF the bullion gold market is going to take the lead in making the singular price away from the traditional axiom that the most leveraged market makes the price. I believe the bullion, in these most unique conditions, will command the one gold price making it hard to impossible to manipulate the gold price via the paper gold market, as is the practice every day.*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Indie said:


> I have bet on USD strength and put my money where my mouth is, so far I have outperformed gold. I'm counting on this to continue for the next 12 months. I see $600/oz coming soon. So, yeah, I'm shorting gold. Are you buying at $780/oz? Where is your money? If you expect gold to rise in the coming months get in. Top up if you already have some, you seem to be inferring it's a bargain right now.




How did you arrive at $600?

Relatively speaking, gold should be already under at least $700 if the inverse correlation to the USDX holds, but it's not even matched the last low @$735, yet the USDX is struggling to get past 83, perhaps looking like a H&S top? That's not to say there won't be several tens of billions of repatriation money & co-ordinated support of the USD to suppres the gold price lower, but they will need to keep putting up tens of billions each & every day for the USDX 'strength' to continue?

So the question should be are you still buying $USD at these levels? Also, is it actually the USDX or the AUS/USD?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Indie said:


> I'm betting gold takes a big hit from deflationary pressures over the next 12 months, maybe more. There have been plenty of periods throughout history where fiat has out-performed gold.




Combating deflation is highly inflationary, bad for the USD?

And how will the US Fed combat deflation? From Bernankes own mouth in 2002 - how prophetic?

This bit is a classic now - 







> Of course, the U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly




Woops - too late for that eh? S*it scared of "zero bound"?



> Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.
> 
> Of course, the U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly (although as we will see later, there are practical policies that approximate this behavior).8 Normally, money is injected into the economy through asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. To stimulate aggregate spending when short-term interest rates have reached zero, the Fed must expand the scale of its asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets that it buys. Alternatively, the Fed could find other ways of injecting money into the system--for example, by making low-interest-rate loans to banks or cooperating with the fiscal authorities. Each method of adding money to the economy has advantages and drawbacks, both technical and economic. One important concern in practice is that calibrating the economic effects of nonstandard means of injecting money may be difficult, given our relative lack of experience with such policies. Thus, as I have stressed already, prevention of deflation remains preferable to having to cure it. *If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation.*




Bottom line - they don't have a clue; they are hoping & praying on untested theories from academics to save the world?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm


----------



## Uncle Festivus

....and last one for the week......from Marc Faber.....



> How would gold perform in a deflationary global recession? Initially gold could come under some pressure as well but once the realization sinks in how messy deflation would be for over-indebted countries and households, its price would likely soar.
> 
> Therefore, under both scenarios - stagflation or deflationary recession - gold, gold equities and other precious metals should continue to perform better than financial assets.




http://www.ameinfo.com/134334.html


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> The spread between Eurodollar and T-bill rates (TED) ( thanks Nick) has today fallen to its lowest levels since September 15th. Although the spread remains at elevated levels, it has fallen nearly by half from its September 24 peak. Probably a better guide to how the credit crisis is being corrected versus tracking the stock market, thus also a good guide on safe-haven gold... if you subscribe to the safe haven status of gold that is...
> 
> Cheers
> ................Kauri




Good point about the TED spread.. potential for turnarounds in the VXO and VIX may be confirming that.

Why do people buy gold?  Safe haven.... from..
1) savings banks going under, and
2) inflation/currency devaluation eating away savings.

The Fed seems determined to stop 1) from happening....leaving 2) as the only reason I can see to own gold at the moment (any other views?)... 
Many of those who'd recently bought gold for fear of 1) sold up as the Fed's intentions became clearer..  eg.. the past week.  

But.. I am pretty sure that _most_ participants in this gold bull aren't buying for a 'bartering for canned goods' scenario, they're buying as a safe haven against inflation and currency devaluation.  From that perspective, a restoration or partial restoration of credit flows could well be seen as bullish for gold, especially if it happened around the same time as an interest rate cut... if if haha


----------



## Kauri

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said today that congressional consideration of a *second fiscal stimulus package* would be appropriate given the "extraordinarily uncertain" US economic outlook.
    "With the economy likely to be weak for several quarters, and with some risk of a protracted slowdown, consideration of a fiscal package by the Congress at this juncture seems appropriate," Bernanke said today in testimony before the House Budget Committee. 
    He recommended that the Congress consider measures to help improve *access to credit by consumers, homebuyers, businesses and other borrowers,* which "might be particularly effective at promoting economic growth and job creation."  This is because the tightened conditions which led to the slowdown thus far could contribute to delaying economic recovery.  
    Bernanke said "any fiscal package should be structured so that its peak
effects on aggregate spending and economic activity are felt when they are most needed, namely, during the period in which economic activity would otherwise be expected to be weak."  He also recommended the package seek to maximize the beneficial effects on spending and that the allocated funds be used responsibly.     "Any program should be designed, to the extent possible, to limit longer-term effects on the federal government's structural budget deficit," Bernanke said.


----------



## Indie

[COLOR="Blue said:
			
		

> Uncle Festivus, post: 351685"]....and last one for the week......from Marc Faber.....[/COLOR]
> 
> Did Marc Faber say gold possibly at $600?
> 
> http://wallastoninvestments.com/marc-fabers-latest-rant-and-where-to-make-money
> 
> He's suggesting now is a buying opportunity, however, Marc admits he gets it wrong now and then.
> 
> I'm a subscribe to Marc's monthly market commentary. I bought into USD (AUD/USD) on Marc's suggestion. However, unlike Marc I got the timing mostly right - I bought at .83 sold 60% at .71 and have now put half of that into yen. He pulled out at the first sign of Greenback weakness at a net loss.
> 
> As Marc himself says, picking timeframes and prices - you invariably get one or the other wrong. So as a trader you need to stay reasonably flexible. But I'm not a gold buyer when I see strong deflationary pressures. At $600 I can re-evaluate, but who knows, maybe I'll then see more downside. But for now I'm betting we go down substantially and I don't see any significant upward movement for at least 12 months.


----------



## hitmanlam

Golds getting smashed right now.  High 760's on my screen.  Looks like its heading down to 750.  Reasons cause the USD just keeps on getting stronger.


----------



## Whiskers

hitmanlam said:


> Golds getting smashed right now.  High 760's on my screen.  Looks like its heading down to 750.  Reasons cause the USD just keeps on getting stronger.




I had .84 ish as a target for wave 3 of the USDX. The futs have just taken that... and I'm unsure yet whether that's it for the USDX or whether it'll come back a bit for a 4 and go on for 5 waves up.

Either way it's likely to come back a bit in the not to distant future and that should cause the POG to rise again... a wave 3 up by my count to probably nudge 1,000 with talk of a major recession/depression probably averted and gold still in relative low supply.


----------



## Ageo

And while the paper gold futures has fallen, the actual physical price has gone up (1142 Aus right now)

hmm interesting


----------



## kransky

Ageo said:


> And while the paper gold futures has fallen, the actual physical price has gone up (1142 Aus right now)
> 
> hmm interesting




where do you get the physical price from? I thought it was just the paper price then translated to our currency... 

770/0.677 = 1137

physical price rises when the AUSdollar / USdollar falls..


----------



## Ageo

kransky said:


> where do you get the physical price from? I thought it was just the paper price then translated to our currency...
> 
> 770/0.677 = 1137
> 
> physical price rises when the AUSdollar / USdollar falls..




Yes Kransky that is true although with gold futures are you subjected to margin requirements? i.e you dont get the benefit of the price rise until you close your position, and if the U.S spot drop further (because contracts are in U.S dollars arnt they?) the margin requirement will increase even further? (we are talking longer term trading).... i have only had minimal experience with trading gold on paper


----------



## barrett

I have been looking at the disconnect between the 'paper' and 'physical' markets for gold.  While big bars of gold and silver are apparently plentiful - and selling at the same price as Comex gold plus commission - small denominations of gold and silver are selling at massive premiums.  For instance, Silver Eagles - which contain US$9 of metal at current prices - have reportedly been selling for up to $19 apiece on Ebay.  

Big bars going for market price, tiny pieces going for huge premiums - what does that tell us?  That tiny retail buyers - the least informed market participants - are falling over each other to buy gold and silver at any price.   I don't consider that bullish - in fact it's more the sort of thing that routinely happens at the end of bull markets - the small guys keep buying all the way down.  I'm not suggesting that's the case for gold - but of all the things going on at the moment I don't find _that _one particularly re-assuring.


----------



## chops_a_must

We are witnessing the death of gold IMO.

Inflation goes nuts in Australia, and gold equities get killed.

Interesting times, but I think gold is completely stuffed.

Everything went right for gold... and what has it done?


----------



## cuttlefish

barrett said:


> For instance, Silver Eagles - which contain US$9 of metal at current prices - have reportedly been selling for up to $19 apiece on Ebay.




My view is that these are coins not bars - they have a collectable's premium built into the price.   The same applies to most minted coins and also some minted bars.   e.g. a Kruggerrand contains exactly 1oz of gold but you won't get one for the spot price of gold - there's a hefty premium.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

chops_a_must said:


> We are witnessing the death of gold IMO.
> 
> Inflation goes nuts in Australia, and gold equities get killed.
> 
> Interesting times, but I think gold is completely stuffed.
> 
> Everything went right for gold... and what has it done?






> The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated - Mark Twain



The US export competitiveness indicator, otherwise known as the US DX, is approaching an interesting juncture, yet to reinforce the current financial conjucture?

It just wouldn't be a recession without a slump in exports as well?

Patience while the eye of the storm passes over.

While ever Aussie golds are averaging $1100/oz or better this qtr expect to see guidance to the upside for the sector. Entered NCM again today.


----------



## cuttlefish

chops_a_must said:


> We are witnessing the death of gold IMO.
> 
> Inflation goes nuts in Australia, and gold equities get killed.
> 
> Interesting times, but I think gold is completely stuffed.
> 
> Everything went right for gold... and what has it done?




I think gold equities work this way at the moment:

Overnight Dow up, Gold price up  -   gold equities go down because an up Dow signals an end to the panic so safe haven status loses its appeal.

Overnight Dow down, Gold price up - gold equities go down along with all other equities.

Overnight Dow up, Gold down - gold equities plummet because gold price is down and equities going up signals end to safe haven status as well.

Overnight Dow down, Gold down - gold equities fall harder than the general market due to gold price being down as well as equities.

Overnight gold sky rockets - gold equities manage small gains on the back of gold price rise.


----------



## refined silver

cuttlefish said:


> My view is that these are coins not bars - they have a collectable's premium built into the price.   The same applies to most minted coins and also some minted bars.   e.g. a Kruggerrand contains exactly 1oz of gold but you won't get one for the spot price of gold - there's a hefty premium.




These are bullion coins, not numismatic or collectable coins. They have always sold for a very small percentage of spot previously.


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> The US export competitiveness indicator, otherwise known as the US DX, is approaching an interesting juncture, yet to reinforce the current financial conjucture?
> 
> It just wouldn't be a recession without a slump in exports as well?
> 
> Patience while the eye of the storm passes over.
> 
> While ever Aussie golds are averaging $1100/oz or better this qtr expect to see guidance to the upside for the sector. Entered NCM again today.




You are flogging a dead horse for now...


----------



## kransky

I gather that the arguement is that gold is being held down on purpose artificially and will eventually burst its banks either due to a change in politics or by sheer weight of numbers..

i assume its being held down to stop a chain reaction of panic buying of gold as it starts to rise and thus to maintain confidence in the $US.

to say gold is dead because its falling in the current environment where it should be rising is to ignore the real question (or assume its not being held down). Is it being held down?


----------



## arco

Hi All

I'm day trading gold, but looking at the daily chart there seems to be the possibility the next area to target could be the grey box in the bottom right corner.

rgds - arco


----------



## Uncle Festivus

chops_a_must said:


> You are flogging a dead horse for now...




The anomaly is that most investors focus on the $US gold price. AU gold is making AU companies windfall profits, irrespective.



kransky said:


> I gather that the arguement is that gold is being held down on purpose artificially and will eventually burst its banks either due to a change in politics or by sheer weight of numbers..
> 
> i assume its being held down to stop a chain reaction of panic buying of gold as it starts to rise and thus to maintain confidence in the $US.
> 
> to say gold is dead because its falling in the current environment where it should be rising is to ignore the real question (or assume its not being held down). Is it being held down?




Or, more likely, the USD is artificially high? The 'credit crisis' measures will fail, the US dollar will tank.


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> Or, more likely, the USD is artificially high? The 'credit crisis' measures will fail, the US dollar will tank.



The ironic thing,

the thing that people had assumed would bring down the US economy, is actually worse everywhere else than the US.

But agree to some extent about the USD, as capital repatriation takes place. But can't see that changing in the medium term either...


----------



## bankit

While this is about currencies it is relevant to this thread.

*Getting Ready for "The Turn" in the Dollar*
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

If you are reading this after tonight you will need to go to *MON* wrapup to get the link as it changes daily


Bankit


----------



## barrett

arco said:


> Hi All
> 
> I'm day trading gold, but looking at the daily chart there seems to be the possibility the next area to target could be the grey box in the bottom right corner.
> 
> rgds - arco




Hi Arco, a 3-year trendline support close below atm, I have it at 745 for today..

Still, most of the long term trendlines haven't counted for much so far in this dip.. 

GC daily, linear


----------



## Nick Radge

I posted a chart some time ago early in this thread about the correlation of the USD and the Presidential Cycle. Since the 70's (as far as my data goes) there is an extremely high correlation between the USD and the political party in power. The Republicans have always been a bearish influence on the USD whilst the Democrats are positive. Indeed history shows that the last time we were at these major lows was in the Bush Snr era and we then posted massive gains when Clinton came into office. Since Bush Jnr came into power its been one way traffic back down again. So, the USD has been strengthening over the last few months and it certainly seems to me that Obama is the favored son. The markets price information in advance so my suggestion is that the multi-decade trend of USD correlation is taking shape once again. 

I'd also suggest the 'fools' trade, that is the majority are usually wrong. From my impressions the 'easy' trade is long Gold, short USD. Somehow I think history will prove the majority will be wrong again. 

I would also reiterate what I have said before. If Gold is such a store or wealth, such a safe haven, why the heck is it still below its major lows and trading lower...

Don't take my work for it. Take a look at the correlation between presidential parties in power and the USD. 

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Reealjrd

Hello Friends,

Seeing the current scenario of the market any predictions is not ok. We cannot say where the gold going to head. But here what we can suspect that gold might become stable for now. But not that much stable as it was before. Elections are near in the US as well as in india. The indian economy too is unstable. Inflation rates have reached the skys and i dont know when we can see a new bottom in it. Because of Inflation most of the countries are suffering,


----------



## barrett

Hi Nick, I had a look back through the archives.. is this the post you refer to?  It's from 14th August 2007.  There was no chart attached with this post though - and it's the only one I can find in this thread on the subject.  If you still have a copy of that chart somewhere that would be very interesting, I haven't come across it before.
Cheers



Nick Radge said:


> Another factor to look at is the correlation of the US$ to the Democrats and Republicans when in power. You will note, with extraordinary precision, that the US$ has fallen under Republicans (in fact was at these exact same levels under Reagan and Bush Snr) and risen with Democrats.
> 
> The world is bearish US$. There is a high chance that the Democrats will romp home next year. We're sitting at a multi decade support level.
> 
> Another point to ponder. If its so damn obvious that the US$ will fall, why hasn't it? Could it be possible, seeing it's so obvious to all, that all that bad news is actually priced in already? The market prices in the future expectations and will change when those expectations change.
> 
> Just take a look at RIO at its absolute high. What happened? They announced their takeover of Alcan. All analysts upgraded their valuations to $120. Those that new that the Alcan deal was in the air had already bought. They had priced it in already. The suckers were the one's that acted on the news. Buy the rumour, sell the fact.
> 
> I must concur 100% with Wavepicker on the plight of the US$


----------



## barrett

Reealjrd said:


> Hello Friends,
> 
> Seeing the current scenario of the market any predictions is not ok. We cannot say where the gold going to head. But here what we can suspect that gold might become stable for now. But not that much stable as it was before. Elections are near in the US as well as in india. The indian economy too is unstable. Inflation rates have reached the skys and i dont know when we can see a new bottom in it. Because of Inflation most of the countries are suffering,




Do you live in India?  I have been curious about the inflation situation there.  I know it reached double digits, and that the central bank has been raising interest rates over the past year to try and deal with that..  I am just wondering whether they will be willing to continue raising rates in the face of a slowdown in demand for exports.


----------



## chops_a_must

Nick Radge said:


> I would also reiterate what I have said before. If Gold is such a store or wealth, such a safe haven, why the heck is it still below its major lows and trading lower...



Yep.

I said elsewhere today that it is dead at this stage. All its ducks lined up... and it failed.


----------



## IFocus

chops_a_must said:


> *The ironic thing,
> 
> the thing that people had assumed would bring down the US economy, is actually worse everywhere else than the US.*
> 
> But agree to some extent about the USD, as capital repatriation takes place. But can't see that changing in the medium term either...




This is a key point the US economy is still the power house of the world in size as Europe / Japan are in as bad a shape and others just don't have the size to count.


----------



## barrett

chops_a_must said:


> We are witnessing the death of gold IMO.
> 
> Inflation goes nuts in Australia, and gold equities get killed.
> 
> Interesting times, but I think gold is completely stuffed.
> 
> Everything went right for gold... and what has it done?





The death of gold... that's...the same gold that hit an all time high of A$1400/oz about 10 days ago, right?

An investment in gold bullion one year ago at $840 would have given a return of 66% peak to peak - it's the best long side investment an Australian person could have made over the past year *by a mile*!

The paradox is that the value of equity in Aussie gold mines is so low.  As we've been seeing, the equities usually point the way first.. but the gold market leaders will be the first to move at a turning point.. and that doesn't include anything listed on the ASX!


----------



## refined silver

Not sure why USD is so strong, massive repatriation and a huge cover of all those who were short are two possibilities.

Hoping this is a blow-off top short cover rally.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24535757-643,00.html


----------



## arco

Well it was an overnight sensation for me

_Post #5648 Quote "..........looking at the daily chart there seems to be the possibility the next area to target could be the grey box in the bottom right corner"._


----------



## Indie

When Bernanke starts giving money to people instead of financial institutions (who are only hoarding cash for takeovers) then gold will rally. The longer he takes to do this the lower the gold price will fall. Demand for all assets - except the dollar/yen - is falling until then. If the Fed keeps this up gold will retrace it's bull market gains back below $300. Regardless, $600 is certain within weeks. Aussie buyers have USD strength to thank for any gains they are still holding this year.


----------



## Nick Radge

Here is the correlation chart of the US$ and Presidential cycles. I've changed data suppliers since the earlier one and this data doesn't go back any further.


----------



## Whiskers

I hope your target is pretty close to the mark arco, cos if it goes lower than 640 my revised count is wrong and we are in another impulse down leg.

But I'm not convinced yet. For now I'll go for a possible short wave 5 and an enlarged Expanded Flat.

If it doesn't go much lower 1,300ish is still possible for the rebound (c).


----------



## Whiskers

I forgot to mention the reason I think we'll get a stumpy revised wave 5 is because what was going to be wave 5 exceeded my estimate and made my original wave 3 the shortest, cos the USDX has gapped up from 84.5 to 85... but it should fall back sharply soon and turn the POG around (I hope).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whiskers you make me laugh.


----------



## Whiskers

Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers you make me laugh.




pheew... that's a change! 

So what's goin on?

What's your intel? Overwhelming recession fear causing everyone to head for cash, fundies liquidating gold to USD, the infamous PPT...?


----------



## cuttlefish

Is John Nadler the most painful financial journalist around or are there far worse ones?   I really don't know why I read his stuff - I just can't seem to stop myself from clicking on the link when I check the kitco site. It seems like such rehashed, unoriginal, directionless, band-wagon-jumping, inane waffle - or is that just me?

I really don't see the point of making calls after the fact and then acting as though that was the line all along, and why he likes to include completely irrelevant garbage from other sources and refer to it as though its something that we'd find remotely noteworthy or interesting is beyond me.  Its truly terrible - I hope he isn't actually making a living from this writing.

</rant>   - sorry just had to get it off my chest


----------



## Kauri

just gotta love those lines...   

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## barrett

cuttlefish said:


> Is John Nadler the most painful financial journalist around or are there far worse ones?   I really don't know why I read his stuff - I just can't seem to stop myself from clicking on the link when I check the kitco site. It seems like such rehashed, unoriginal, directionless, band-wagon-jumping, inane waffle - or is that just me?
> 
> I really don't see the point of making calls after the fact and then acting as though that was the line all along, and why he likes to include completely irrelevant garbage from other sources and refer to it as though its something that we'd find remotely noteworthy or interesting is beyond me.  Its truly terrible - I hope he isn't actually making a living from this writing.
> 
> </rant>   - sorry just had to get it off my chest




I know he was bearish right through 900-1000+ and copped _mountains _of crap from gold bugs for it!!  He was practically getting death threats from the Axtones mob before that was shut down... I don't read him, but sounds like it's payback time! lol


----------



## barrett

Kauri said:


> just gotta love those lines...
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Nice spotting there Kaureye!

Does that mean I won't get my usual wakeup call from Commsec ML tomorrow?  Don't even bother to set the alarm these days.. 
lol j/k.. so far, anyway


----------



## Kauri

Gold has reversed course and surged to $733.40 highs after plumbing $695.20 lows. Traders in the pits report "_very aggressive buying_" but no name attached, speculation that it is hedge fund related but no one nose.... or is saying... yet...   

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## barrett

Bigger-scale version of Arco's chart.. nice work too by the way!


----------



## arco

Hi Whiskers/All

The grey target price box has now been invaded. (update on chart from post #5661). I've taken my profit.

GTA - arco


----------



## Ageo

I get this feeling the US dollar is being manipulated (hence the U.S imports alot of its goods) which in turn can affect the price of gold....... Thats the only reason i can think of for gold to drop this much in such a short term (and i dont believe selling gold to cover margin calls is the answer).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nick Radge said:


> I would also reiterate what I have said before. If Gold is such a store or wealth, such a safe haven, why the heck is it still below its major lows and trading lower...
> 
> Don't take my work for it. Take a look at the correlation between presidential parties in power and the USD.




Not sure if it matters what turkey is in charge of the financial largesse purse strings as these are not normal cycles or times.


chops_a_must said:


> Yep.
> 
> I said elsewhere today that it is dead at this stage. All its ducks lined up... and it failed.




It's all relative, you just have to know which store of wealth you are comparing to? Perhaps preservation of capital?


----------



## IFocus

HUI is just getting smashed

Chart of the weekly


.


----------



## IFocus

US dollar index weekly chart

.


----------



## nick2fish

Nice Chart Uncle ........ very interesting ..........Thanks


----------



## barrett

That reminds me, Soros put on a long gold, short oil spread trade in July at $138 just after the oil peak.  Just looking at UF's chart, that would have still worked out pretty well even through all this.


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> I get this feeling the US dollar is being manipulated (hence the U.S imports alot of its goods) which in turn can affect the price of gold....... Thats the only reason i can think of for gold to drop this much in such a short term (and i dont believe selling gold to cover margin calls is the answer).




I agree, so does Jim Sinclair:-

D







> ear Jeroen,
> 
> The most difficult concept for the professional public to understand is that hyperinflation can exist along with a totally disastrous economic environment. Hyperinflation falls flat because it fails to take into account the infinite velocity of money that a Weimar creates during a depression economy as a product of throwing monetary discipline at the wall.
> 
> When you pay people three times a day to keep up with prices, consider the mammoth daily increases in all private and business transactions in terms of the total number of currency units. What happens to the velocity of money? The turnover increases with the rate of inflation until both are hyper creating an unstoppable spiral.
> 
> Few understand that monetary inflation proceeds and sustains price inflation. For this reason world business in a rat hole with credit still jammed up will lead to hyperinflation in 2009-2010.
> 
> If world business is perceived to have bottomed and credit flows are re-established, this will bring hyperinflation in 24 hours.
> 
> We have heard both Russia and China chime in today on their clear perception of the pre-election falsely valued US dollar and government interference in not only gold but energy and food.
> 
> The PPT is working overtime on those index spreads but they only have a short time (13 to 88 days) before they have to throw it into what is most likely inexperienced hands.
> 
> Yes, a planetary Weimar is on the menu. Russia, the Middle East and China may just be the top survivors. Africa might just come into its own in such a scenario due to the amount of raw material and gold resources they have.
> 
> Respectfully,
> Jim


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not sure if it matters what turkey is in charge of the financial largesse purse strings as these are not normal cycles or times.
> 
> 
> It's all relative, you just have to know which store of wealth you are comparing to? Perhaps preservation of capital?




You left some important choices out there...

Inflation, deflation, people are missing the point here. If that much capital has been destroyed, it's really irrelevant what the economic conditions are, because if no-one can buy, the price isn't going to do anything.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

chops_a_must said:


> You left some important choices out there...
> 
> Inflation, deflation, people are missing the point here. If that much capital has been destroyed, it's really irrelevant what the economic conditions are, because if no-one can buy, the price isn't going to do anything.




If the plan works we get inflation, if it doesn't we/they get currency wipeout? Deflation a sideshow act?

But for those who still have money, where do they put it, assuming they can even get their hands on physical cash?

Let's get inside the head of an (still rich?) American - I've just sold all my foreign shares/assets, brought the proceeds back to the USA by buying dollars, and am looking to put it......T-Bonds (negative return)?.......real estate (negative return)?.....in a bank (negative return)? Which bank? How much does the government guarantee my deposit? Which bank will fold next?

When they realise even government treasuries/bonds are not that safe either, what have you got left - it a  war of asset attrition & currency vaporisation - possibly the end of the worlds default currency?

PS up till recently, the net interest on the USA's investments abroad have comfortably covered their interest expense, despite what even some gold bugs would have you believe. But, if this repatriation of funds (if it is that, not official meddling?) as shown by the rise in the US DX is genuine and consistent then they can say goodbye to one of their key weapons in the overall debt equation - interest in say Oz at 6% back to US interest of 1.75% - so that their debt becomes a very real problem afterall?


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> I forgot to mention the reason I think we'll get a stumpy revised wave 5 is because what was going to be wave 5 exceeded my estimate and made my original wave 3 the shortest, cos the USDX has gapped up from 84.5 to 85... but it should fall back sharply soon and turn the POG around (I hope).




I think you're on the right track with where the money flows uncle.

The monthly USDX seems to suggest a turnaround is immement.

Interesting that the gap up yesterday didn't carry through and stopped short of where I think the wave ii is and came back to the bollinger band.

The EUR/USD seems to have wave B covering slightly more than equal wave A in the correction on the daily to make wave iv on the monthly , supporting the notion of a turnaround.

Of interest also the AUD/USD gapped down from .77 quite a bit also supporting a decline of the USD and the AUD back to .77ish.

The logical interpretation of a falling USD as in the carry trade redemptions largely unwound and cash looking for better returns as uncle mentions, should to at least some extent be rising gold... shouldn't it!?


----------



## cuttlefish

Well if the US stock futures tonight are anything to go by the fear elevator might be taking a ride to the next floor.   Be interesting to see what, if any, impact it has on the gold price and the USD.


----------



## chops_a_must

Quite a nice rebound.

Covered and looking long.


----------



## explod

chops_a_must said:


> Quite a nice rebound.
> 
> Covered and looking long.




One can never be certain but thought it would.   The $US700 was an area of considerable resistance for about 12 months from the middle of 2006 and appears now as good support going forward.   

As gold has again shown its hand against falling stock prices overnight, next week will be interesting.


----------



## arco

We now need to see if  the action can penetrate the cloud or if it will be repelled. On higher time frames the cloud is still a distant blur.

arco


----------



## Uncle Festivus

chops_a_must said:


> Quite a nice rebound.
> 
> Covered and looking long.




Say what, did the wind change direction Chopster .

So we have both gold & the US DX going in the same direction - which is the real deal? US interest rates at 1% next week? 

Passed resistance at $730 now $735, with a thrust to $750 for good measure.

Aussie gold at $1180! 

$50 daily flip flops now makes for making some serious money if you 'guess' the right entries/exits?

What will happen to gold shares when the markets are closed with limit downs in effect?

But it all seems a bit sureal when whole countries are declaring banktruptcy and the very real possibility of millions of people starving. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={A02D915A-E3DB-4E24-AAC7-E5F8EA18DA75}

Pakistan, radical muslims & nuclear weapons are not a safe combination!
Failed states with nukes - Russia is on the brink again!
Humans cursed propensity for greed & ideology, money & religion.
Consumerism at the expense of the environment.....I'd better stop there......meditate & stock up on seeds.....?


----------



## nick2fish

I prudently (or so I thought ) took a rather large position in a gold miner as a natural hedge against the upcoming financial storm that we are now in. Great how the best laid plans can backfire
And when you read this thread and articles like this one below I am left scratching my head 

Extract from Pure Speculation The Australian Buiness Online

*Gold still gleaming *
_OUR swooning over thermal coal does not mean any lessening of enthusiasm for gold at Pure Speculation. Yes, yes, we know gold's growth in value has not kept pace with other asset classes, the return on it at times is lousy -- and there are many other arguments against the yellow metal. 

But who knows how many of those other asset classes will be worth anything when we enter the financial equivalent of a nuclear winter? 

Last week we reported that the US Mint had suspended sales of the buffalo gold coins because demand had cleaned out all the stock. Well, now we read that Jeremy Charles, chairman of the London Bullion Market Association, is saying he has never seen in 33 years the demand for physical gold as great as it is right now. "The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars," he is reported as saying. 

The association says it found wealthy investors paying $US25 an ounce over the spot price to get to the head of the queue. The Austrian Mint, meanwhile, is working at weekends to boost gold coin production due to heavy demand. 

One commentator made an interesting point. The attraction was not so much the potential future value of the gold but the fact that it was a physical asset. 

People are losing their trust in paper. There's so much bad paper around. _


----------



## IFocus

I believe 400 jobs are getting chopped at Telfer due to falling gold price


----------



## Ageo

nick2fish said:


> The association says it found wealthy investors paying $US25 an ounce over the spot price to get to the head of the queue. . [/I]




And the rest, 2 weeks ago you couldnt get it for less than $100 p/o over the spot. I agree thow that theres to much paper going around


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> And the rest, 2 weeks ago you couldnt get it for less than $100 p/o over the spot. I agree thow that theres to much paper going around




Spot on and its not working.   Gold is and has always been the backstop to real money.  The play money has had a little rally but we will see how long it keeps going.   The following excerpt from the Privateer's weekly gold report  (I have no connection but if you are serious it is excellent) 
is food for thought / if you think about it:-



> We are, of course, witnessing the unravelling of the entire post-1973 fiat credit money structure. Governments and central banks are pushing on a string with unimaginable vehemence, as witness the literally $US TRILLIONS they have force-fed into the system and markets. But not only is this not doing any good, it is working entirely contrary to their intended purpose. The money is being used to retire debt. And, since the entire system is "underpinned" by debt, the entire system is having its foundations pulled out from under it much faster than the "authorities" can pump it up.
> 
> What we are waiting for now is very simple. At some point, the present upside rampage of the US Dollar will come to an end as the demand for it to go on deleveraging dwindles and then dies. At that point, the present hugely artificial demand for US Dollars will literally vanish into thin air, leaving the Dollar suspended in mid air without a parachute. As "Bugs Bunny" once said, after landing like a snowflake after plummeting from miles high without a parachute - "you can do anything in a cartoon!"
> 
> So you can, but this is real life.


----------



## GreatPig

nick2fish said:


> There's so much bad paper around



Makes you wonder why the mints are so keen to take all that bad paper in exchange for their good gold.

GP


----------



## Uncle Festivus

IFocus said:


> I believe 400 jobs are getting chopped at Telfer due to falling gold price




Falling??? Better check your sources for both rumours?


----------



## explod

GreatPig said:


> Makes you wonder why the mints are so keen to take all that bad paper in exchange for their good gold.
> 
> GP




Many pundits have been saying for some years that they are taking paper for gold that does not exist.  When delivery time comes round they keep updating the paper contracts.

These pundits, so called doom and gloom sayers have been proven correct on the financial mess, why not on their take of gold contracts.

It is another reason why many of us keep harping that the only safe investment is to hold physical gold in your own safe keeping.


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> Many pundits have been saying for some years that they are taking paper for gold that does not exist.  When delivery time comes round they keep updating the paper contracts.
> 
> These pundits, so called doom and gloom sayers have been proven correct on the financial mess, why not on their take of gold contracts.
> 
> It is another reason why many of us keep harping that the only safe investment is to hold physical gold in your own safe keeping.





hehe interesting you mention this.......

i suggest you read this article which explains the US dollar and the gold price (very interesting indeed and agree's with price manipulation)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/1023.html

Then watch this video but skip to 11min as they have John Embry which basically also states the central banks and bullion bankers are manipulating the gold paper market but he also believes when the time comes for people to take their gold after the lease is up there wont be enough to give (similar to a bank run). And then he believes the price of gold with then switch to track the physical price (which should be higher as demand increase and their is shortages of bullion).

http://watch.bnn.ca/tuesday/#clip104603


In a nutshell this sums up everything about paper (as long as its in existence it can and will always be manipulated).


----------



## kransky

Ageo said:


> i suggest you read this article which explains the US dollar and the gold price (very interesting indeed and agree's with price manipulation)
> 
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/1023.html




great link!


----------



## IFocus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Falling??? Better check your sources for both rumours?






> NEWCREST Mining plans to slash 400 jobs from its huge Telfer gold mine in Western Australia by the end of the year in an effort to cut costs.




http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24542950-36418,00.html


Actually the current rumours running through WA are really nasty......... 
.


----------



## chops_a_must

IFocus said:


> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24542950-36418,00.html
> 
> 
> Actually the current rumours running through WA are really nasty.........
> .



Yup.

And there is a strong basis for it. I can vouch for it.

Big contracts are being torn up left, right and centre.

And then you have that meataxe Gryllths stopping anything being done in Perth for the next 20 years...


----------



## amory

explod said:


> I agree, so does Jim Sinclair:-
> 
> D



Explod:  your opinion I respect, but Jim Sinclair's is worthless.  that self-proclaimed guru has cost his subscribers untold millions in bad advice.  as you may know, he has recently changed his stance from THIS IS IT ... 1650 just around the corner, to a more realistic timespan ... jan 2011.

but now, he is once again rubbing his hands in glee, as follows:

_ Posted On: Friday, October 24, 2008, 9:32:00 AM EST

*Much Faster Than Anticipated*
     Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

Gold is a currency. 

Paper currency insures nothing.

Gold is insurance.

Gold is not a commodity.

Gold will trade at a minimum of $1650 MUCH SOONER THAN I HAVE ANTICIPATED.

The shorts in gold shares will get what they deserve - financial decimation.

Your friend,
Jim _
..............................................

going by his record to date, would you still agree with him, or is he as full of it as ever?   Gold at USDollar 1650 an oz .....  dream on, Jimbo!


----------



## ducati916

amory,

Simply take the following figures;

1971...........price of gold = $35oz
Nixon ends exchangability.

1971-2008 compounded inflation rate = 4.68%
Current inflation adjusted value of gold = $190oz

jog on
duc


----------



## solomon

To some degree I think you should reflect gold's growing scarcity and increasing cost of production in those figures Ducati.


----------



## ducati916

solomon,

In the past [on this thread] I have already done so. The price is higher. However when people claim values for gold based on an inflation basis, then you see just how low the value from the current market price it falls.

However, with regards to "scarcity" all the gold ever mined is still with us. Even the stuff at the bottom of some ocean.

jog on
duc


----------



## chops_a_must

ducati916 said:


> In the past [on this thread] I have already done so. The price is higher. However when people claim values for gold based on an inflation basis, then you see just how low the value from the current market price it falls.



Or perhaps the inflation figures are just all BS.


----------



## ducati916

chops,

That may well be the case, certainly the CPI calculation was altered, ostensibly to "reduce" inflationary readings.

Therefore if we take the $1000oz price as "rational" we would have had a 9.48% compounded inflation rate.

If we take some of the more "out there" valuations of $3000oz then we have a 12.78% compounded rate.

Which inflation rate would seem to be "most" realistic?

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

chops,

Here are some "alternative" methods.

In 2007, $100.00 from 1971 is worth:

 $511.83  using the Consumer Price Index  
 $414.37  using the GDP deflator  
 $563.82  using the value of consumer bundle *  
 $500.77  using the unskilled wage *  
 $842.21  using the nominal GDP per capita  
 $1,225.05  using the relative share of GDP  

jog on
duc


----------



## solomon

ducati916 said:


> solomon,
> 
> In the past [on this thread] I have already done so. The price is higher. However when people claim values for gold based on an inflation basis, then you see just how low the value from the current market price it falls.
> 
> However, with regards to "scarcity" all the gold ever mined is still with us. Even the stuff at the bottom of some ocean.
> 
> jog on
> duc




okay, thanks.

By scarcity I had in mind that scarcity adds to production costs as well as inflation.

Exponential population growth since gold was $35 = more (on average) who believe gold is a currency and if gold production hasn't kept pace with population growth then there is something bigger at work than suggesting higher prices than a simple inflation adjusted price. (though I realise this is beyond the scope of your original post which was just pointing out a fact )


----------



## chops_a_must

ducati916 said:


> chops,
> 
> That may well be the case, certainly the CPI calculation was altered, ostensibly to "reduce" inflationary readings.
> 
> Therefore if we take the $1000oz price as "rational" we would have had a 9.48% compounded inflation rate.
> 
> If we take some of the more "out there" valuations of $3000oz then we have a 12.78% compounded rate.
> 
> Which inflation rate would seem to be "most" realistic?
> 
> jog on
> duc




Probably somewhere between the two.

But inflation over the last few years probably has been well over 10% whilst the readings were ludicrously low.

But I think the great man said it best:


----------



## ducati916

solomon said:


> okay, thanks.
> 
> By scarcity I had in mind that scarcity adds to production costs as well as inflation.
> 
> Exponential population growth since gold was $35 = more (on average) who believe gold is a currency and if gold production hasn't kept pace with population growth then there is something bigger at work than suggesting higher prices than a simple inflation adjusted price. (though I realise this is beyond the scope of your original post which was just pointing out a fact )





That of course is the problem, there's not enough physical gold to make a viable currency, which is why it morphed to a "Gold Standard" and later a watered down "Gold Exchange"

Rightly, or wrongly, the Gold Standard was credited with  exacerbating problems in the 1930's and contributed to the policy of "inflation" that is now "de rigeur" government policy response.

jog on
duc


----------



## barrett

ducati916 said:


> amory,
> 
> Simply take the following figures;
> 
> 1971...........price of gold = $35oz
> Nixon ends exchangability.
> 
> 1971-2008 compounded inflation rate = 4.68%
> Current inflation adjusted value of gold = $190oz
> 
> jog on
> duc




No the problem is that you're making the assumption that no consumer price inflation took place between 1934 - when the gold price was fixed at $35 by government decree - and 1971 - when it was let loose.  Better re-do the numbers.  

Incidentally, who's to say that the $35 price was even accurate in 1934 - since it was decided by a gnome and not by a properly functioning marketplace.

We know that the past 25 years or so, governments have heavily toyed with the way inflation figures are calculated to benefit their own balance sheets but mainly to keep the public's confidence that inflation is low, since during the 70s they learnt the importance of public perception in either fuelling or preventing runaway inflation.  The 'real' numbers are a matter of dispute.  This chart was produced using the same method that was used in 1980 http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data, also below.
A brief justification for doing that and discussion of some CPI-related issues is here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/350


----------



## Uncle Festivus

IFocus said:


> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24542950-36418,00.html
> 
> 
> Actually the current rumours running through WA are really nasty.........
> .




Unless they sell their gold for US dollars - the Aussie gold price is going up.

Perhaps not due to falling prices but cost containment then.



> High costs at Telfer were a blip on an otherwise solid production report that included record quarterly gold production of 485,978 ounces, up 12 per cent from the previous quarter.



Aussie golds will show good profits out of this quarter.

Why do people focus on the US price when it's the Aussie price that matters?


----------



## ducati916

barrett said:


> No the problem is that you're making the assumption that no consumer price inflation took place between 1934 - when the gold price was fixed at $35 by government decree - and 1971 - when it was let loose.  Better re-do the numbers.
> 
> Incidentally, who's to say that the $35 price was even accurate in 1934 - since it was decided by a gnome and not by a properly functioning marketplace.
> 
> We know that the past 25 years or so, governments have heavily toyed with the way inflation figures are calculated to benefit their own balance sheets but mainly to keep the public's confidence that inflation is low, since during the 70s they learnt the importance of public perception in either fuelling or preventing runaway inflation.  The 'real' numbers are a matter of dispute.  This chart was produced using the same method that was used in 1980 http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data, also below.
> A brief justification for doing that and discussion of some CPI-related issues is here:
> http://www.shadowstats.com/article/350




barret

Actually I have already done that earlier in the thread, around page 17 from memory.

From 1932 @ 3.82% = $560oz
From 1921 @ 2.84% = $240oz

The problem is that various countries went off gold, then came back on, at some arbitrary figure, so while I don't disagree that the starting point changes the final value, the final value is still well below the current market price.



> The Traditional CPI Concept Has Been Politically Mauled. At the heart of the differences over CPI reporting is the way CPI is viewed or defined. My basic approach to looking at CPI inflation is from the standpoint of common experience and traditional expectations that the CPI measures the cost of maintaining a constant standard of living, that reflects costs out of pocket to get a products or services in hand, not some nebulous benefits estimated by the BLS of having to pay for an expensive new gasoline additive when filling a gas tank.




Which is why I included in the previous post, some alternative methodologies in calculating the inflation rate.

1934
to
2007 
Consumer Price Index 3.82% 
Unskilled Wage * 
Nominal GDP 7.59% 
Real GDP 3.90% 
GDP Deflator 3.55% 
Nominal GDP per capita 6.32% 
Real GDP per capita 2.67% 
Population (millions) 1.20% 
Dow Jones Average 6.94% 


1900
to
2007 
Consumer Price Index 3.07% 
Unskilled Wage * 
Nominal GDP 6.27% 
Real GDP 3.25% 
GDP Deflator 2.92% 
Nominal GDP per capita 4.91% 
Real GDP per capita 1.93% 
Population (millions) 1.30% 
Dow Jones Average 5.46% 


Obviously what can be seen is that the further back that you go, the lower the compounded rate of inflation due to the longer period of stability provided by the gold standard.

Thus by coming into 1971, you actually get a much higher inflation rate, that includes the "Great Inflation" of the 1970-1980 period.

The key takeaway is "purchasing power" You see the CPI is also a function of "Wage growth" or lack thereof.

The chart you display, may well be accurate in displaying an inflation spike @ 12%, but an inflation spike is not COMPOUNDED GROWTH.

Thus, the price of Gold, may be displaying a price spike that correlates to an inflation spike, but will it continue indefinitely?

No.

It will I agree trend upwards for some indeterminate time period. Interest rates are highly inflationary, thus inflation will tend to trend upwards, until rates again rise to curb inflation.

Is Gold the best hedge against inflation currently?
No, I don't think so.

jog on
duc


----------



## cuttlefish

ducati916 said:


> Is Gold the best hedge against inflation currently?
> No, I don't think so.




ducati - what do you see as good inflation hedges at this point in time? 

Also do you have any views on gold as a hedge against USD collapse?


----------



## ducati916

cuttlefish said:


> ducati - what do you see as good inflation hedges at this point in time?
> 
> Also do you have any views on gold as a hedge against USD collapse?




cuttle,

With the stunning contraction through commodities generally, and oil particularly, a longer term opportunity might be presenting itself.

Certainly from the chart we can see that oil the commodity, fell to $20/barrel during the 2001-2002 recession. As this recession is likely to be both deeper and longer, holding off for the time being would be prudent. At some point however, a longer term investment within this sector is likely to pay off.

Year……………….%Capitalization…………S&P500……Compounded gain
1929…………………..8.48%………………..30.10
1932………………….10.86%………………..7.12
1949………………….16.0%………………..15.29
1982………………….12.6%……………….109.70
2008………………….8.53%……………….876.77
……………………………………………………………………4.36% [not including dividends]

The oil majors were always within the first three sectors and very often the largest sector within the S&P500; thus their growth has been consistent with both the market and the economy.

While by comparison other “major sectors” have faded through the years, automobile, aircraft, rails and a host of other sectors that have simply disappeared. While it is true that alternative energy must become a focal point, oil is critical to so many products that it’s ultimate demise will take time.

Inflation.
With the incredible monetary stimulus that is now worldwide, there will be inflation, and possibly a very serious out of control inflation. China, who has amassed some $2 Trillion in foreign reserves, predominantly denominated in USD, with a rapidly slowing economy, due to contraction in demand from both the US & Europe, will do what with them?

Looked at another way, China will not be amassing further reserves at the rate that they had been. Thus an immediate consequence will be a rise in interest rates across the part of the curve where China was accumulating US Treasury paper. Should they also start to sell reserves, to fund their economy in a Keyenesian manner, again, interest rates will rise across that part of the curve.

In an inflationary environment, the purchase a real assets and commodities can hedge the inflationary pressures providing real returns. Oil, although subject to any number of risks, political, war, terrorist, environmental and supply/demand shocks, still provides an attractive commodity to invest in.

Should the bear market deepen, where would the likely purchasers come from? For the actual commodity, oil itself, the buyers would have to be the economies themselves, in the form of products, be that energy generation or as a component in product manufacture. With a recession of potential depth forming, economies could well cut back for the indeterminate future.

With equity, the buyers might likely be corporations themselves. In an inflationary environment, rising prices of land, plant, reserves, and other input costs, rise with inflation. The price of equity however tends to fall, thus making it cheaper to consolidate, rather than expand.

Therefore, in an inflationary environment, it would be more rational to look to purchase equity that will appreciate in real terms in either scenario.

We would want in trying economic conditions one of the majors, who has the ability to withstand the economic downturn and capability to expand through consolidation, acquiring competitors at advantageous prices.

1 BP
2 COP ConocoPhillips
3 CVX Chevron Corp.
4 E Eni SpA
5 PTR PetroChina Co. Ltd.
6 PZE Petrobras EnergÃ­a Participaciones S.A.
7 RDS-B Royal Dutch Shell
8 REP Repsol YPF SA
9 TOT Total SA
10 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. 

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

cuttle,

Paradoxically, I see the USD entering a bull market, based on "relative" interest rates.

In a recession, interest rates will fall, to promote growth. Both Japan & the US have the lowest rates, thus they have the least farthest to fall.

If inflation again predominates, which I am expecting, then both Japan & US have the most to gain from rising rates [relatively speaking]

The difference, is that it is a "global" recession, rather than a more isolated recession.

jog on
duc


----------



## explod

ducati916 said:


> cuttle,
> 
> Paradoxically, I see the USD entering a bull market, based on "relative" interest rates.
> 
> In a recession, interest rates will fall, to promote growth. Both Japan & the US have the lowest rates, thus they have the least farthest to fall.
> 
> If inflation again predominates, which I am expecting, then both Japan & US have the most to gain from rising rates [relatively speaking]
> 
> The difference, is that it is a "global" recession, rather than a more isolated recession.
> 
> jog on
> duc




You obviously only note what you want to.  If you had read over the posts on this thread over the weekend and the stories behind the links provided you would know that most of what you are saying here is rubbish.

On the other hand you make statements without backing them up with reasons.  When we attempt that we get into less trouble because it makes one realise sometimes that what we are trying to put forward lacks substance.


----------



## sinner

ducat, are these numbers you quote in USD?

How do you feel about the rate of ASX GOLD vs the COMEX rate? I noticed immediately after Lehman Bros (before AUD dropped against USD) that ASX GOLD diverged massively from the COMEX rate. ASX GOLD is still sitting (technically) at all time highs, but slowly converging back with COMEX gold if you factor in exchange rates.

You can see things beginning to diverge in July with full trend breaking at Lehman collapse.

Nonetheless, Aussies have proven they can, do and will play a different game when it comes to gold. Not sure what this means exactly.

First one is ASX GOLD second is NYSE SPDR Gold Trust (ETF).


----------



## barrett

WRT interpreting the $A gold price - it's just a passive product of two other numbers that are determined on things far removed from (and far more important than) Australians' appetite for gold.. they are:  1) USD gold price, and 2)AUDUSD exchange rate.


----------



## awg

a few questions from a bit of a gold novice.

have owned gold stocks, but recently cashed out.

now looking to time a re-entry, and have been doing some reading.

especially on the possible disconnect between physical and paper price.

what i am looking at as alternatives are purchasing some physical gold or shares in miners Newcrest and LGL.

my question would relate to what extent these miners would be classified as "paper" and therefore suffer a disconnect. 

my reading suggests the disconnect would not be as bad as other forms of paper gold.

I am waiting for the US $ to show some form of retreat.

the big advantage in miners shares is I can liquidate easily if I get the timing wrong.

I may well do both.

I do not wish to solicit advice, as this would be innapropriate, but opinions from more experienced gold followers would be timely..i think there would be many posters looking at these considerations at the moment


----------



## cuttlefish

ducati916 said:


> <on inflation>






ducati916 said:


> <on the USD>




Ducati - cheers for the comments and justifications on both questions.  The USD strength threw me initially - though I think I've started to get my head around some of the reasons for it in the short term.  Longer term is another story - and depends a lot on continuing support for its reserve currency status by the stronger economies imo.  That probably depends on how worthwhile a trading partner the US is perceived to be in its current state and into the future (as well as a host of other political factors).


----------



## refined silver

amory said:


> Explod:  your opinion I respect, but Jim Sinclair's is worthless.  that self-proclaimed guru has cost his subscribers untold millions in bad advice.  as you may know, he has recently changed his stance from THIS IS IT ... 1650 just around the corner, to a more realistic timespan ... jan 2011.




Amory if you are going to post, at least try to get some of the facts right.

1. $1650 has been Sinclair's target since 2001.
2. His date for $1650 has always been January 2011 ever since he named a date.
3. He has no subscribers. He has never published a newsletter, and never charged a cent for anything.
4. The "THIS IS IT" quote refers to the derivative meltdown which he stated would happen years ago, and he has consistently predicted many of the things which have come to pass and some that haven't yet.


----------



## barrett

Ducati, I liked your reasoning on oil companies, I also think they are likely to be a great hedge against inflation.  I don't think gold is about to stop being a hedge against inflation though.

I don't follow your reasoning that the USD and JPY will enter an extended bull market because they have the lowest interest rates - if anything it seems the Fed will need to cut rates further and probably to zero, if they are to avert a depression scenario.  I don't think I'm being hyperbolic there am I - I think a US depression is the situation that would naturally occur when this amount of leverage is unwound, were it not for the expected Keynesian response.  Maybe in spite of the response - if you believe Prechter.

On the 'gold in today's dollars' calculation, it looks to me like you've used the official CPI figures rather than for instance, the shadowstats estimates.  That's OK, but you then need to keep in mind your 'fair' gold price estimate is likely to be well on the low side.  

I appreciate your work in calculating it but I'm far from convinced that this 'fair value' calculation should be used as a guide for investing and trading.   The reason is that economies tend to go through long periods of monetary expansion that finds its way into financial assets (eg 1981-2000), immediately followed by long periods of monetary expansion that increasingly finds its way into hard assets like commodities and gold (eg 2000 onwards).  The price of gold is more determined by whether you happen to be in the first or second stage of a monetary inflation cycle (see attached chart) than what the theoretical 'fair value' of gold is at the time.


----------



## ducati916

explod said:


> You obviously only note what you want to.  If you had read over the posts on this thread over the weekend and the stories behind the links provided you would know that most of what you are saying here is rubbish.
> 
> On the other hand you make statements without backing them up with reasons.  When we attempt that we get into less trouble because it makes one realise sometimes that what we are trying to put forward lacks substance.




explod,

Possibly it hasn't occurred to you but every "story" behind a link comes with it's own assumptions and biases.

What evidence is there to support their "rubbish" over my "rubbish?"

I am assuming you are referring to my comments on "Interest rates?"

The interest rates are a fact.

I provide my "reasons." That you do not agree with my reasons is acceptable, but that you cannot discern a "fact" and a "reason" rather makes me consider your criticisms immaterial.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

cuttlefish said:


> Ducati - cheers for the comments and justifications on both questions.  The USD strength threw me initially - though I think I've started to get my head around some of the reasons for it in the short term.  Longer term is another story - and depends a lot on continuing support for its reserve currency status by the stronger economies imo.  That probably depends on how worthwhile a trading partner the US is perceived to be in its current state and into the future (as well as a host of other political factors).





cuttle,

Longer-term is always a bit of a conundrum. Trends, tend to persist, long after they [possibly] should. Currency trends are some of the strongest trends.

The US I posit is one of the "stronger" economies, thus, will pull through. Depression/Recession is a normal part of the business cycle. Unfortunately, some [excessive] support was required due to the delaying of the recession, certainly from 2000, thus, it [recession] is likely to be deeper.

However, recessions are normal, and restore the growth to economies. Thus, once the excesses are squeezed out, the US will again expand. 

Economies, currencies, stockmarkets, however do not correlate tightly over all timeframes, so there will be the usual shocks and surprises along the way.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

barrett said:


> Ducati, I liked your reasoning on oil companies, I also think they are likely to be a great hedge against inflation.  I don't think gold is about to stop being a hedge against inflation though.
> 
> I don't follow your reasoning that the USD and JPY will enter an extended bull market because they have the lowest interest rates - if anything it seems the Fed will need to cut rates further and probably to zero, if they are to avert a depression scenario.  I don't think I'm being hyperbolic there am I - I think a US depression is the situation that would naturally occur when this amount of leverage is unwound, were it not for the expected Keynesian response.  Maybe in spite of the response - if you believe Prechter.
> 
> On the 'gold in today's dollars' calculation, it looks to me like you've used the official CPI figures rather than for instance, the shadowstats estimates.  That's OK, but you then need to keep in mind your 'fair' gold price estimate is likely to be well on the low side.
> 
> I appreciate your work in calculating it but I'm far from convinced that this 'fair value' calculation should be used as a guide for investing and trading.   The reason is that economies tend to go through long periods of monetary expansion that finds its way into financial assets (eg 1981-2000), immediately followed by long periods of monetary expansion that increasingly finds its way into hard assets like commodities and gold (eg 2000 onwards).  The price of gold is more determined by whether you happen to be in the first or second stage of a monetary inflation cycle (see attached chart) than what the theoretical 'fair value' of gold is at the time.




barrett,

With regards to Gold remaining an inflation hedge. That is most likely true. The point I'm making however is that gold, due to its price run-up is less effective as an inflation hedge as it now reflects a speculative component.

That speculative component far exceeded the purely "inflationary" element and I would have sold out circa $700 on the first run-up

Inflation hedges are best implemented when the hedge is "undervalued" thus oil companies who hold oil as "equity" represent "probably" the best values. I haven't crunched the numbers yet, so I have nothing save opinion atm.

The Fed may well cut to 1% but they can not go any lower than 0% Most other countries [excluding Japan] are higher currently, so they have further to fall.

Interest rates are "supposed" to compensate for risk. Who would you trust more, Bulgaria, or the US?

Well whatever your answer, that's where you run to cash. The RETURN OF principal becomes more important than the RETURN ON principal.

That in effect is partially what we are seeing. Risk averseness, and a flight to safety + carry trade unwinding.

With regard to my "Fair Value" being low. That's fine. I would rather it be low. Then should it fall to my price, I would have greater comfort in buying it. High valuations tend to disappoint.

As to not using figures for investing and trading. Ok, so what would you suggest?

jog on
duc


----------



## explod

ducati916 said:


> explod,
> 
> Possibly it hasn't occurred to you but every "story" behind a link comes with it's own assumptions and biases.
> 
> What evidence is there to support their "rubbish" over my "rubbish?"
> 
> I am assuming you are referring to my comments on "Interest rates?"
> 
> The interest rates are a fact.
> 
> I provide my "reasons." That you do not agree with my reasons is acceptable, but that you cannot discern a "fact" and a "reason" rather makes me consider your criticisms immaterial.
> 
> jog on
> duc




You are probably correct and the rubbish componenet is everywhere.

Interest rates have become meaningless.   They are being dropped to restimulate what cannot be restimulated.   Cash is getting (or loans) hard to obtain.   Even good businesses are finding it difficult to borrow for proper enterprise.    Read to day that China has lost its way, the US certainly has with most of the rest.   What we are suddenly finding is that none of them actually know what to do.

To cut a long story short the penny will soon drop that money is going to become scarce and expensive which will drive interest rates up to levels not seen since the Whitlam years.   The speed at which we have recently arrived at this spot in time would suggest that the next spots will not be too far away either.

It is a simple matter of supply.


----------



## amory

refined silver said:


> Amory if you are going to post, at least try to get some of the facts right.
> 
> 1. $1650 has been Sinclair's target since 2001.
> 2. His date for $1650 has always been January 2011 ever since he named a date.
> 3. He has no subscribers. He has never published a newsletter, and never charged a cent for anything.
> 4. The "THIS IS IT" quote refers to the derivative meltdown which he stated would happen years ago, and he has consistently predicted many of the things which have come to pass and some that haven't yet.




thank you for your comments Ref-Silver.  
points 1. & 2. I am afraid I must disagree with.  he has been shouting 1650 & more ... and sooner than you expect ... from the rooftops since time began, hence his army of willing devotees being led to slaughter over the past few years.
but all this is now irrelevant, ancient history if you like.  the main question is:  have we been under a cloud of misapprehension re Gold as an alternate currency when all else fails, for all these years?
or is it just barely conceivable that when the next Bretton-woods comes around, gold will be overlooked entirely & some other solution will be found, to the currency mess the world will undoubtedly find itself in?  it is beginning to look that way.
even if the prediction of 1650 by early 2011 should come true (and I still maintain that he has moved the goalposts quite substantially since the time when an ounce of gold was over $1000) ... by 2011 the whole landscape may have changed.  commodities may be well on their way to healthy recovery - Gold just one among others.  that's if one chooses the optimistic view.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I think the inflation aspects for gold are largely irrelevant for determining the gold price these days. You could get 10 people who can actually bother to work a (inflation) value out for it and still get 10 different answers - waste of time as it only matters to those who think it does?

It's a $USD play that's setting the trend, and that trend may be about to change with a spinning top at resistance 87 on the weekly DX forming. Just need to see how this week finishes up.

The extra bonus from the Aussie dollar bleed might also become at least muted due to the signalling from the Reserve Bank to finally step in to support it.

The gain/time ratio for the DX looks like it's going to revert to more historical norms after the historically abnormal gains?

DX overbought, HUI oversold, time for a re balance?


----------



## brty

Hi,

explod...



> money is going to become scarce and expensive which will drive interest rates up to levels not seen since the Whitlam years.




Ahh yes............ the high interest rate years of the Whitlam govt, where interest rates went up from 7.00% in late '72 to 10.38% by the time he was kicked out.

They don't actually seem that high to me. 

brty


----------



## cuttlefish

ducati916 said:


> amory,
> 
> Simply take the following figures;
> 
> 1971...........price of gold = $35oz
> Nixon ends exchangability.
> 
> 1971-2008 compounded inflation rate = 4.68%
> Current inflation adjusted value of gold = $190oz
> 
> jog on
> duc




Ducati I'm going to have a go at tackling this.

By reference I'll link this wikipedia article as I am trusting the info on there to be reasonably accurate: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard#Gold_standard_from_peak_to_crisis_.281901.E2.80.931932.29

My take on this is that the USD price of gold in 1971 of $35 was not real - this is why Bretton Woods was abandoned.  Since the great depression, when the US govt had to lift the gold price from $20 to $35 to stop arb traders buying gold at the US official rate and selling on the "black market" (free market) the US was constantly trying to hold down the price of gold, including the establishment of the gold pool to try to dampen spikes in the london market prices.

So a better time to start the $35 exchange rate is probably 1933 when it first came about.  If we use the same inflation rate (very conservative given it spans two world wars) of 4.68% then $35 compounded from 1933 gives us a 2008 gold price of USD $1080.

As we know - asset prices fluctuate around means - so a conservative inflation based estimate for gold at $1080 could easily translate to a hyped up value of $2000+.
But the other more important thing we know is that for the 40+ years the US struggled to maintain the gold standard after the depression and through the wars, they were pretty shackled in terms of the amount of deficit they could run and debt they could issue.  So really the US was very restrained for 40 years due to the restrictions of the gold standard.  Now - for nearly 40 years from the abolition of the standard in 1971 they have been very unrestricted.  That has to translate into the price equation somewhere surely.

This comes back to the willingness of economically healthy sovereign nations to respect the USD as a reserve currency.  In the same way the US, as a healthy and productive economy that other economies relied upon, was able to abandon the gold standard with no ill consequences, there are nations that are probably economically able to abandon the USD standard if they so decide - the oil producing nations? - the Japanese? - and continue to trade with the partners that they need to trade with under different terms - a new free market.  

The more the US govt intervenes to regulate free markets the less their currency is a free currency and the more likely that its reserve status is tarnished and fades - leaving the US in a less than enviable position.

Does that mean gold prices will rise - no - but as a safe store of value it is still up there - almost universally accepted culturally and consistently accepted historically as a thing of value - and will almost certainly endure over the USD in the long run and possibly the short run.


----------



## gav

cuttlefish said:


> This comes back to the willingness of economically healthy sovereign nations to respect the USD as a reserve currency.  In the same way the US, as a healthy and productive economy that other economies relied upon, *was able to abandon the gold standard with no ill consequences*, there are nations that are probably economically able to abandon the USD standard if they so decide - the oil producing nations? - the Japanese? - and continue to trade with the partners that they need to trade with under different terms - a new free market.




Except MASSIVE debt!  Have a look at US debt over the past 60 years, specifically from when Nixon abandon the gold standard


----------



## cuttlefish

gav said:


> Except MASSIVE debt!  Have a look at US debt over the past 60 years, specifically from when Nixon abandon the gold standard





Sorry if you misconstrued what I was saying gav, but what you are highlighting is exactly the point I was trying to make.  For 40 years the US had to restrain themselves due to the gold standard, so when the shackles were lifted in 1971 they made up for lost time.  The point is in 1971 they were economically and politically in a strong enough position to be able to do this and have the world accept it.  Were they to try to repeat the exercise today I doubt it would receive the same reception. So a question in my mind is - are there are possibly other candidate sovereign economies around today questioning whether the USD is essential to their relationships with key trading partners, and is it time to look at alternatives.


----------



## ducati916

cuttle,



> So a better time to start the $35 exchange rate is probably 1933 when it first came about. If we use the same inflation rate (very conservative given it spans two world wars) of 4.68% then $35 compounded from 1933 gives us a 2008 gold price of USD $1080.




This is the problem, the "official" inflation rate from 1933 [75yrs] is 3.82% which gives a value of $582oz

If I go back to 1775, the oldest data I have, the inflation rate is 1.45%. This makes intuitive sense, as gold really was money. Inflation grows from about 1942 as monetary policy became increasingly inflationary.

Thus we have the problem that you highlighted. The inflation rate can be argued about to its accuracy, but I tend to agree that the fixed price of Gold in 1971 at $35 was artificial and thus too low.

So, if we take $20oz from say, 1880, use the inflation rate from 1880 to 1971 to establish a "market inflation" based price, and move forward from there.

Gold in 1880 = $20.67
Inflation rate = 1.56%

Value of Gold in 1971 = $84.50oz
Current value = $459oz

How does that sit with you?

jog on
duc


----------



## gav

cuttlefish said:


> Sorry if you misconstrued what I was saying gav, but what you are highlighting is exactly the point I was trying to make.  For 40 years the US had to restrain themselves due to the gold standard, so when the shackles were lifted in 1971 they made up for lost time.  The point is in 1971 they were economically and politically in a strong enough position to be able to do this and have the world accept it.  Were they to try to repeat the exercise today I doubt it would receive the same reception. So a question in my mind is - are there are possibly other candidate sovereign economies around today questioning whether the USD is essential to their relationships with key trading partners, and is it time to look at alternatives.




Sorry Cuttlefish!  Thanks for clearing that up, makes much more sense now.  And I think your point is very valid.


----------



## cuttlefish

ducati916 said:


> cuttle,
> 
> This is the problem, the "official" inflation rate from 1933 [75yrs] is 3.82% which gives a value of $582oz
> 
> ... (edit) ...
> 
> How does that sit with you?
> 
> jog on
> duc




Ok duc - I'm willing to start working with the $582 figure as being a very conservative inflation adjusted figure for the price of gold.  

I'd still see this as a price floor - because I still believe the massive expansion of US debt/money subsequent to the breaking of the standard needs to be taken into consideration - but lets put that aside for now.

I'd like to tackle the inflation rates.   On the basis of a 1933 $US $35 price we arrive at the true gold price in 1971 being more like $145/oz.

Now some history from my own perspective.

When I was a child, houses in the area I grew up in sold for $30 - $50k in around 1978.  The exact same houses  (i.e. original homes that existed during that time and on the same blocks of land) now sell for $400 - $600k (unrenovated at the lower end). The gentrification levels for the suburb are not significantly different between then and now and not the primary driver for the price increases.

I could buy an icecream (same brand as sold today) for 10c retail in 1976 and its now about $1.80 - thats about 9.5% inflation.

I could get a can of coke for .20c retail, now about $3 retail.

So an inflation rate from 1976 of 8% seems conservative.

So if I extrapolate $145 from 1971 (gold from 1933 to 1971 at 3.8%) - then continue it to 1976 at 3.8% I get $174 for gold in 1976.  Then if I accelarate inflation to 8% from 1976 till 2008 I get $2050 for gold in 2008.

Thus based on my own personal experience I still suspect that the 3.8% inflation is very conservative and thus would consider $580 as at the lower end of reasonable guesses as to an inflation adjusted gold price.


----------



## ducati916

cuttle,

I see where you are coming from. Taking your "Can of Coke" example, we see a 9.44% inflation rate.

This is why a "basket of goods" is utilised. 

"Price stickyness" is an economic concept [theory] that tries to address this problem via the basket of goods construct. Some prices, for a variety of reasons [Brand power, monopoly position, etc] demonstrate pricing power. Their prices do not adjust as easily, or as quickly, to market forces.

On the other hand, you have "commodity goods" that prices adjust very quickly, are non-sticky, and have deflated over time, small electrical goods come to mind, toasters etc.

When taken as a basket, they should give you the geometric inflation rate of the longer term series.

Financial assets that are lacking "LIQUIDITY & MARKETABILITY" provide the same stickyness observed in consumer products.

Housing is the classic example in this class. Due to high transaction costs, low liquidity & marketability, no "mark-to-market" pricing and the unwillingness or inability of holders to take a loss, housing demonstrates high stickyness.

Gold, is an interesting asset class in that it crosses a number of classes. Financial asset, industrial input commodity, consumer good, and psychological component, thus the supply/demand curves can become very confused.

Any pricing, as this thread aptly demonstrates, can become quite intricate once you try and price the different components.

jog on
duc


----------



## bribieman

Well the drop IMHO OVER THE LAST 3 WEEKS is the Hedge Funds trying to get Liquid. They are selling what ever is not nailed down getting ready for their 15th of NOVEMBER redemtion slips for Joe the Plumber in the US.

Maybe signs of an increase once the sale has finished might show up soon.


----------



## explod

bribieman said:


> Well the drop IMHO OVER THE LAST 3 WEEKS is the Hedge Funds trying to get Liquid. They are selling what ever is not nailed down getting ready for their 15th of NOVEMBER redemtion slips for Joe the Plumber in the US.
> 
> Maybe signs of an increase once the sale has finished might show up soon.




Absolutely, and to that is a falling off in the last day or two of the $US index.   It is all about currency and sentiment.   The drop in the fed rate will reduce the dollar value as it always does and up goes gold at the other end of the see saw.

The funds and most other trading has to pass back and forth through the US dollar.  This volume (which is unprecedented, this is a global unwinding) has sentiment concluding the US dollar is a safe haven.   Its fall now may be profound.

We live in most interesting times and we will may see results soon.  IMVHO as always


----------



## Rockhoundnz

gav said:


> Except MASSIVE debt!  Have a look at US debt over the past 60 years, specifically from when Nixon abandon the gold standard




That is one hell of a scary graph!


----------



## Reealjrd

Hello Friends,

The fall in gold in the previous days was because of the coming elections and the cuts in the interest rates by the banks. As the governments are trying to control the inflation rates. Gold might come dome for some points more. After that you can again see the gold to its original price.


----------



## dervaig

Here's a perspective from the other side of the pond.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1225389600.php

IMHO.......Gold is going north, and very soon.


----------



## bankit

Hi dervaig,

You beat me to it  

I had just finished reading his article and thought it was worth sending to this forum.

His previous article was just as riveting also. It can be viewed at:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/1023.html

Cheers,
Bankit


----------



## Whiskers

As mentioned earlier my latest EW count is looking for a larger degree impulse wave C pretty soon. That correlates with the USDX about to start falling again... but maybe not collapse per-se.

Got some Morning Stars to show yers now.

Gold fell three weeks ago against the GBP and EUR on Evening Stars. 

Gold has in the last few days turned higher in JPY on a Morning Star.

The problem is though the following have just turned in the last three days rising on a Morning Star:

AUD/USD - #16 @ https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=356433#post356433
AUD/JPY
AUD/EUR (which is confirmed by an Evening Star on the EUR/AUD)
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
GBP/USD
GBP/JPY


So, it looks like the AUD is set to rise some more against the USD, EUR and JPY.

The GBP is set to rise more against the USD.

And similarly, the USD, EUR, GBP, and AUD to rise against the JPY

The question is the degree as in the weighting of the EUR, JPY and GBP in the USDX.


----------



## Whiskers

Well, I may as well post the rest... and maybe someone can get their head around the maths and give us a number for gold particularly in AUD.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> As mentioned earlier my latest EW count is looking for a larger degree impulse wave C pretty soon. That correlates with the USDX about to start falling again... but maybe not collapse per-se.




That would be a C up for a major wave 1... ie after it finishes this minor abc which will probably take it down to 696ish.


----------



## kransky

anyone read this?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/peterson102908.html

unbelievable.. but could it be true?
if it is then should be easy to trade...


----------



## Reealjrd

In few months trading in gold will be easy. As it is heading towards its bottom.


----------



## GreatPig

That wouldn't be a head and shoulders, would it? Pretty awesome if it is.

GP


----------



## sinner

Let's all just take a momentary step back and a long, deep, calm breath.

Breathe in, hold it, then out....

Now, from your calm and objective perspective, maybe we should be asking not "where is price of gold heading" but "what can I buy with an ounce of gold"

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_oct272008.html


----------



## M34N

Will be interesting to see where gold goes now that Obama is in, and all the people who talk about the Plunge Protection Team manipulating the price of gold on Comex/Nymex, should be up if they're right?


----------



## kransky

when exactly do the new lot take over? is it jan 20 like obama?


----------



## Whiskers

GreatPig said:


> That wouldn't be a head and shoulders, would it? Pretty awesome if it is.
> 
> GP




Noticed similar looking H&S on AUD spot gold, GreatPig.

I'm still expecting that gold will go a bit lower to 690ish, but what with the USD likely to fall again and gold falling in EUR and GBP according to those evening stars and rise against the JPY (morning star), which seems to be supported by those other 'stars' on key currencies, it doesn't bode well for any major rise in gold just yet... but that's all dependant on what moves first and to what degree I suppose.

Not putting a lot of weight on our apparent H&S cos I think they are minor charts in the bigger scheme of gold... I hope anyway.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Gold is in a large double a-b-c correction. $600 looks like a reasonable target as it's dead center of the previous 4th wave triangle. Right now, there's probably some upside to come before heading lower. Don't personally follow the gold market, but looking at the chart from 2000 onwards looks like 5 wave are complete to the high. My 2 cents.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well Explode and all the others I had battle with. looks like i and WP had the last laugh.

Gold dropped into the 600's like i said it would and the USD has had a great rally..

but i forgot the usd is a flawed currency and it's doomed. well, all you know it all's forgot to tell the buyers that.......

just though i would rub it in as you all knew so much at the time.

and i all so funded my Alpari account in usd at .94 cents so just on the conversion i am cleaning up.

this is my first and last i told u so.......

cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

Lol...


----------



## cuttlefish

AUD gold price 12 months ago circa $850 - $900/oz.
AUD gold price now circa $1050 - $1100/oz

Yeah as a holder of physical gold I bet explods miserable ...  

I only wish I'd had the foresight to move a lot more out of gold stocks into physical gold.


But all digs aside I'd have to acknoweldge being suprised by the USD strength this year. 

(which is to some extent the bigger driver for the AUD gold price rise, and yes the irony is that a direct USD investment would actually have been the best way to go this year).


----------



## CFDTrading

*Oil and Gold Technical Outlook*
Focus: Oil, Gold, Silver
*
Long-term Technical Forecast for Gold*

Gold – Weekly Chart







Gold is not clear structurally, but does find support from what was resistance in 2007 below 700.  Long term channel support comes in near 625-640 over the next several weeks.  The immediate trend is bearish as long as price is below 778.30.

*Short-Term Technical Forecast for Gold*






COMEX Gold started the day significantly higher and initially broke above a key wedge formation through early trade, but a later reversal suggests that the contract will remain within its recent consolidation range until a clearer shift in trend. Gold’s failure at previous spike-highs of 769, and continued failure at said mark sets up a break below its short-term rising trendline closer to 730.00. Medium term momentum remains to the downside, and a downside break seems the more likely outcome.

Click Here for the full article which also covers Oil and Silver


----------



## sinner

Ah yeah Apocalypto, you sure told us!

Wanna buy physical silver right now? Spot price ~10USD/troy oz, try and find me any .999 bar less than 40AUD!

Wanna buy physical gold right now? Used to be able to go to any coin store in Wynard and pay standard price of $250 for a sov. Go walk down there now and we are talking $400-450 a sov! Same on eBay RIGHT NOW.

If you were curious, $450 a sov at ~7.7g at 22kt = $2000+ AUD per troy ounce for physical gold!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

sinner said:


> Ah yeah Apocalypto, you sure told us!
> 
> Wanna buy physical silver right now? Spot price ~10USD/troy oz, try and find me any .999 bar less than 40AUD!
> 
> Wanna buy physical gold right now? Used to be able to go to any coin store in Wynard and pay standard price of $250 for a sov. Go walk down there now and we are talking $400-450 a sov! Same on eBay RIGHT NOW.
> 
> If you were curious, $450 a sov at ~7.7g at 22kt = $2000+ AUD per troy ounce for physical gold!





Sinner,

that was not aimed at u so don't get up tight..... that was a war that went on from june this year with a select few...

Funny that since the AUD dropped so much gold vale increased so much in comparison to it aye.....


----------



## Nyden

What I fail to understand is why gold-bugs are still proclaiming this a victory? Granted, in terms of AUD gold has been a good performer; but gold on it's own has been a terrible performer, and for many months now.

 ... surely gold bugs understand that it's the USDs strength that's been helping their positions - and not that of Golds? I just don't get it


----------



## cuttlefish

Nyden said:


> What I fail to understand is why gold-bugs are still proclaiming this a victory? Granted, in terms of AUD gold has been a good performer; but gold on it's own has been a terrible performer, and for many months now.




Maybe because the AUD price of gold has risen while just about every other asset has stayed steady or fallen.    And the USD gold price is actually still higher now than it was in mid 2007.



			
				Nyden said:
			
		

> ... surely gold bugs understand that it's the USDs strength that's been helping their positions - and not that of Golds? I just don't get it




Yes, thats probably why I acknowledged exactly that fact in the post I made only an hour ago.





			
				cuttlefish said:
			
		

> But all digs aside I'd have to acknoweldge being suprised by the USD strength this year.
> 
> (which is to some extent the bigger driver for the AUD gold price rise, and yes the irony is that a direct USD investment would actually have been the best way to go this year).


----------



## sinner

If you are considering the price and demand for physical gold and silver, the curve has long ago departed from the paper price and its close relationship with the USD.


----------



## sinner

Nyden said:


> What I fail to understand is why gold-bugs are still proclaiming this a victory? Granted, in terms of AUD gold has been a good performer; but gold on it's own has been a terrible performer, and for many months now.
> 
> ... surely gold bugs understand that it's the USDs strength that's been helping their positions - and not that of Golds? I just don't get it




What victory? We are proclaiming small holdings of gold as a hedge against hyperinflation and any other currency debasements (of which there are many) currently taking place.

Personally I would prefer no victory for us "goldbugs", as that would spell a very dire situation for everyone involved. I would much rather we all go back to our funny-money "everything is fine" illusion so 'cos everyone seemed much happier then.


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> Ah yeah Apocalypto, you sure told us!
> 
> Wanna buy physical silver right now? Spot price ~10USD/troy oz, try and find me any .999 bar less than 40AUD!




1 month ago i picked up 10 1kg silver bars (pure .9999) for $3500 (35c per gram). The market price at the time was around 55c p/g (once you include the spread)

Thats the benefits you have when dealing in the 2nd hand market.

Today was interesting, market price for gold is around 1130p/o (including the spread at the time) which is around $36.30p/g, picked up about 300 grams for $34.51 of fine gold.

As they say when investing you money is made when you buy not when you sell.


----------



## Glen48

One comment I read expects it to drop another $100.
Thanks.....NOT


----------



## Wysiwyg

Ageo said:


> 1 month ago i picked up 10 1kg silver bars (pure .9999) for $3500 (35c per gram). The market price at the time was around 55c p/g (once you include the spread)
> 
> Thats the benefits you have when dealing in the 2nd hand market.
> 
> Today was interesting, market price for gold is around 1130p/o (including the spread at the time) which is around $36.30p/g, picked up about 300 grams for $34.51 of fine gold.
> 
> As they say when investing you money is made when you buy not when you sell.




A$350 per kilogram?

Silver sold at A$486/kg (+ or - ) today.


----------



## explod

professor_frink said:


> Gold 5K by the end of next week!





Yeh, good stab at it but probably some some more (unwinding) lows yet.  Maybe close in 2 years prof.

And Yaaaaawwwwnnn, the long term holders have had few problems in this.

The frustrations speak volumes.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Yeh, good stab at it but probably some some more (unwinding) lows yet.  Maybe close in 2 years prof.
> 
> And Yaaaaawwwwnnn, the long term holders have had few problems in this.
> 
> The frustrations speak volumes.




Explod!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

*edited to try and allow the discussion to stay on topic*

but on a different note I think the usd is cluttering up and due for a decent pull back. to 75.

I will say that spot held up well in the usd rally. i have never seen such a butchering like what happened to the AUD/USD

i hope the cancer issue is resolved for u


----------



## professor_frink

explod said:


> Yeh, good stab at it but probably some some more (unwinding) lows yet.  Maybe close in 2 years prof.
> 
> And Yaaaaawwwwnnn, the long term holders have had few problems in this.
> 
> The frustrations speak volumes.




you still think we are heading for higher inflation explod? The situation is still looking like longer term deflation rather than inflation at this stage. Honestly can't see gold breaking back up above 1k for quite some time the way things are going now

Would be nice of you are right though. I don't keep much cash and have some debt over a house so hefty inflation would work a little better for me


----------



## cuttlefish

The US is still looking like its in a very bad way ...  while I agree that at the moment it looks deflationary, I still see risks of hyperinflation in some of the scenarios that could pan out.


----------



## cuttlefish

Though I'm slightly less confident about how gold will go in an inflationary scenario - it really depends a lot on what actions china and the middle east take in the event of a loss of confidence in the USD. Gold may feature, or oil could come back into the picture, or they may have other ideas altogether.


----------



## Whiskers

cuttlefish said:


> Though I'm slightly less confident about how gold will go in an inflationary scenario - it really depends a lot on what actions china and the middle east take in the event of a loss of confidence in the USD. Gold may feature, or oil could come back into the picture, or they may have other ideas altogether.




I'm still confident China will stay in reasonable growth. I think it was RIO that I read were winding down iron ore production slightly on weaker orders but expect China to gear up in the first qtr next year.

Oil, I think will go down further into the 40's, probably early next year. When that happens and most major countries will be at pretty low interest rates at the same time, there has to be good potential for increased consumption (by volume at least)  of all the basic commodities... and inflationary pressure as well. 

With a country the size of China (not to mention India) and it's increased priority over the last year or so to increase local consumption, it's not difficult to see continued strong growth and an exponential shift in the world economic dynamic... ie China growing at around 10% for another three years and the US averaging 2 or 3 if theyre lucky. Not sure what the GDP no's are off the top of my head, but if China grows 25% more than the US in three years, that's gonna make them a force to be reckoned with.

I can't imagine oil going beserk again in that time. I got a feeling, what from all those 'star' signs, that we've probably got another month or two of lack lustre performance since gold is trending down in EUR and GBP but up in JPY, before something breaks substantially to the upside.

From my experience those 'star' signs are often good for 2 or 3 maybe up to 6 months.


----------



## jeflin

Hmm, gold prospects not looking bright in the short term. Futures drop as much as $16 in market pullback.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Gold-futures-drop-much-16/story.aspx?guid={AB36D21B-E980-4C96-B92A-916C3816B8BC}


----------



## amory

I am reading where Martin D. Weiss reckons hundreds of billions more will be needed to save GM, Fannie etc.  any number of deductions can be drawn about the economy present & future, but what we are discussing is ... Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Jim Sinclair ... don't worry not an unkind word I promise ... reminds us that Gold is not a commodity, it's a currency.  if that is so, all I want to know is what's keeping the USDollar (the fiat-currency as one likes to describe it) up & gold sliding down?

even on a day like this ... when the Dow is getting ready to finish down 200 points or more ... what has the POG got to say for itself?  $16 down ...

I came across an interesting story on the above-named guru Mr Sinclair.  apparently, he has been picking the highs & lows of the yellow metal successfully & profitably for several decades past ...  no one knows more about gold than he does ...  the last time gold was $1000 he sold right out, knowing that this was a peak for quite some time to come ... or so it says.  proving beyond a doubt that he is gifted with enviable prescience.

maybe I ought to leave it there ... but there's a nagging feeling that when gold was over a thousand, the message to his disciples was ... This is it, CAGA's, you ain't seen nuttin' yet!  

I may be mistaken, perhaps my memory is playing tricks ...


----------



## cuttlefish

jeflin said:


> Hmm, gold prospects not looking bright in the short term. Futures drop as much as $16 in market pullback.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Gold-futures-drop-much-16/story.aspx?guid={AB36D21B-E980-4C96-B92A-916C3816B8BC}





AUD fell as well so AUD gold price largely steady.  So did gold fall or did the USD rise?


----------



## cuttlefish

Whiskers said:


> Oil, I think will go down further into the 40's, probably early next year. When that happens and most major countries will be at pretty low interest rates at the same time, there has to be good potential for increased consumption (by volume at least)  of all the basic commodities... and inflationary pressure as well.




While USD remains strong but their economy continues to decline I'd agree that the outlook for oil is to continue downward.  But if the US starts to get debt related systemic problems continuing to appear in spite of the massive bailouts and credit loosening, capital injections etc. then we might see a significant new phase that could include hyperinflation.


----------



## Ageo

Wysiwyg said:


> A$350 per kilogram?
> 
> Silver sold at A$486/kg (+ or - ) today.




Correct....... buying at a discount is always a good thing, i bought it off a pawn broker (1 of my customers) and alot of the time i come across pure bullion in both silver and gold.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Ageo said:


> Correct....... buying at a discount is always a good thing, i bought it off a pawn broker (1 of my customers) and alot of the time i come across pure bullion in both silver and gold.





Look at the price on ebay for a kilo of silver bullion.


You can buy it in a few minutes.


----------



## Ageo

lol well the people that buy it are idiots (the seller is laughing).


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Explod!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> *edited to try and allow the discussion to stay on topic*
> 
> but on a different note I think the usd is cluttering up and due for a decent pull back. to 75.
> 
> I will say that spot held up well in the usd rally. i have never seen such a butchering like what happened to the AUD/USD
> 
> i hope the cancer issue is resolved for u




Agree with your obbs.  As for the cancer, found out that my op to remove prostate will be 3rd of December, so will be off the catherter for Christmass.  Was hoping to still have the bag so I could drink unlimited beer without the toilet.   However my health is good, the cancer is contained within protate so should have many more years in which to annoy for the future.   Thanks for your concern.

cheers explod


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> Agree with your obbs.  As for the cancer, found out that my op to remove prostate will be 3rd of December, so will be off the catherter for Christmass.  Was hoping to still have the bag so I could drink unlimited beer without the toilet.   However my health is good, the cancer is contained within protate so should have many more years in which to annoy for the future.   Thanks for your concern.
> 
> cheers explod




Good luck with your OP Explod....i hope you find new capacity to hold copious amounts of Ale.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Keep the focus, stay with the fundamentals.......through the veneer of financial illusionists.

*All fiat money is a function of debt and confidence.*




> But there’s a major difference between now and the 1930's. During the ‘30s nobody had dollars. Dollars were scarce as frog's teeth. If you did have dollars in the ‘30s, nobody doubted their value. Today I doubt the viability of Federal Reserve Notes (dollars). I wonder what they'll be worth a few years from now. Fiat currency is “fool's money”. It’s only money because some qovernment says it is. *All fiat money is a function of debt and confidence.* There's only one currency that represents intrinsic wealth (no debt) on its own. And it's gold. If you can’t understand that, you’ll never understand why men over thousands of years have fought, explored, and died in the never-ending search for gold.
> Nov 7, 2008
> Richard Russell



http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell111008.html


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## amory

_<< There's only one currency that represents intrinsic wealth (no debt) on its own. And it's gold. If you can’t understand that, you’ll never understand why men over thousands of years have fought, explored, and died in the never-ending search for gold. >>_

this is exactly right U.F. & I am not intending to argue about it.  but what if someone decided - perhaps even at the current G-20 meeting - that gold is now an anachronism & that another form of currency alignment is called for?

I know the idea has been variously proposed in recent times, but cannot at the moment substantiate the sources.

anyway ... what if?


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## Uncle Festivus

amory said:


> this is exactly right U.F. & I am not intending to argue about it.  but what if someone decided - perhaps even at the current G-20 meeting - that gold is now an anachronism & that another form of currency alignment is called for?
> 
> I know the idea has been variously proposed in recent times, but cannot at the moment substantiate the sources.
> 
> anyway ... what if?



I think the controllers of paper money & the fractional reserve system have long ago decided that gold was indeed a anachronism & the gold standard was a barbarous relic simply because it stood in the way of responsible money management and allowed unrestrained credit (& debt) growth. They are now able, in the words of Bernanke himself, to print unlimited amounts of backless paper money. And so we now have a global mistrust of anyone who has debts denominated in those paper moneys, most notably the worlds reserve currency, the $US.

They can align themselves to whatever paper currency they like, but over time and humans being what they are, it all ends the same way? 

I nominate the Swiss Franc, at least it's got some gold backing. Why not the US with all their gold? We simply don't know how much they have, if any. The official total hasn't changed since March 2006!

Actually you want to hope they don't decide on an alternative to the US dollar - all those foreign holders of trillions of US dollars left high & dry with worthless bits of paper?

Just like the First Great Depression, gold is in a transition stage biding it's time for the moment the world realises the $US game is over?


----------



## explod

amory said:


> _<<
> 
> this is exactly right U.F. & I am not intending to argue about it.  but what if someone decided - perhaps even at the current G-20 meeting - that gold is now an anachronism & that another form of currency alignment is called for?
> 
> I know the idea has been variously proposed in recent times, but cannot at the moment substantiate the sources.
> 
> anyway ... what if?_



_

The financial systems have been asserting just that and if you read the history books the supression of gold has been attempted many times before.  It did not work and will not work.  A piece of paper or instrument without value (in fact backed by debt) fails as exchange.

Anyway lets say that someone decides on another form of currency, where will that leave gold.    Gold is only .005% of the total financial market, it is insignificant, it is rare and some people get very excited about it.    The middle eastern blocs are buying billions in gold bullion each week, Dubai 3.5 billion in the last fortnight and they are knocking back US dollars as payment for oil, seeking Euros or gold instead.   And gold has gone up about 85%   since 2004.    

If only another .005% of the financial market seeks gold there will not be enough to satisfay demand.  In fact dealers around the world are running out of it, orders for silver have long delays and some bullion suppliers have shut their doors.    I think gold is a good and safe investment whether money or not in these very uncertain times._


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## Ageo

Well lets look at Zimbabwe......... If you are a citizen there would you prefer to have their currency or gold instead? Imagine the US dollar collapsing? People living there would rather want gold and silver than paper (as gold and silver is the next best thing in terms of money). Right now in the jewellery market trading scrap gold and older gold jewellery has become the norm (for me anyway). All my customers are cash poor but asset (jewellery stock) rich so they use the form of gold as payment.

Remember the value of gold and silver will always have better purchasing power than paper over time (that is fact).

I even know people purchasing items in pawnbroking stores with gold!

$1000 of cash yrs ago will buy you much less today

$1000 worth of gold yrs ago would buy you much more


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## Ageo

This is a very interesting article..... certainly this man is a gold bull

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996



> I would not be surprised to see the G-20 monetize at least 20% of the U.S. debt markets. THAT MEANS …
> 
> Gold would be priced at over $10,000 an ounce.
> 
> Currencies would be devalued by a factor of at least 12 to 1, meaning it would take 12 new dollars or euros to equal 1 old dollar or euro.


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## kransky

he makes some pretty big calls... we will know very soon if he was right

need more gold damn it


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## CFDTrading

Hi Everyone,

Our analysts at CFDtrading think that gold is headed south, in the long and short term. 

Here are two charts with their analysis. 

*Long-term Technical Forecast for Gold*







Gold is not clear structurally, but does find support from what was resistance in 2007 below 700.  Long term channel support comes in near 625-640 over the next several weeks.  The immediate trend is bearish as long as price is below 778.30.

*Short-Term Technical Forecast for Gold*






COMEX Gold prices showed a false break below their recent trading wedge, but a very near-term bounce has thus far kept the commodity price above key support levels. A progressively narrower trading wedge tells us that a breakout is imminent, and a medium-term bearish trend leaves our bias to the downside. Important support levels come in at the 725.00 mark, and a further break will likely see a decline to psychologically significant support near the 700.00 mark.


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## stoner

CFDTrading said:


> Hi Everyone,
> 
> Our analysts at CFDtrading think that gold is headed south, in the long and short term.
> 
> Here are two charts with their analysis.




So is pretty much everything else!

Looks like there is only bull market in town. GOOD OLD CASH!


All the best 

STONER


----------



## amory

they say I'm always bearish Gold - I have been in the past & of course right all along, amidst much contempt & ridicule.

but when I look at the charts, not so sure at this exact point in time.

what about if it breaks upwards?  there's a lot of clear sky there ... say en-route 820.

question:  what would it take to bring about such a change?  in the first instance, a sharp downturn of the USDollar.  this is something the Fed is doing their best to prevent at all costs ... forget about that one.  for now anyway.

what else?  an upswing in the Dow ... overdue if you ask me.  in that case, Gold just as likely to move up with it, the way its been undecided lately.

just a thought ... let us see what happens.  if the Dow continues on down, all bets are off re the POG going up.  it will most likely follow the path of least resistance ... down with the Dow.

unless that Dollar ... see first instance above.


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## arco

.
If you look at the long term TL from circa 2002, Gold still has a bit
further to go before it tests that line.


----------



## explod

amory said:


> they say I'm always bearish Gold - I have been in the past & of course right all along, amidst much contempt & ridicule.




This is not about right or wrong, just our best views, so don't worry on that count



> but when I look at the charts, not so sure at this exact point in time.




medium it is sideways with a down bias



> question:  what would it take to bring about such a change?  in the first instance, a sharp downturn of the USDollar.  this is something the Fed is doing their best to prevent at all costs ... forget about that one.  for now anyway.




I think this is wrong.  Europe and Asia want to and are keeping it up becuase they hold us treasuries,  the Fed want it down so that it wipes away debt.  Think about it, dropping interest rates cheapens money.



> what else?  an upswing in the Dow ... overdue if you ask me.  in that case, Gold just as likely to move up with it, the way its been undecided lately.




If you look at the Dow chart it is right on the cusp of falling off the cliff big time.  The news just keeps getting worse so watch thier space.



> just a thought ... let us see what happens.  if the Dow continues on down, all bets are off re the POG going up.  it will most likely follow the path of least resistance ... down with the Dow.




The tendency of gold and the Dow in tandem is only a recent aberration.   Since 2002 gold is up over 100% the Dow down 20%.    The recent huge rise in the US$ index is about huge shifts in assets around the globe, it will end soon as spectacularly as it rose and gold will move counter, as it always does.


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## Ageo

How come no1 is talking about the physical market??? gold lease dec expiry coming up which will probably issue a shortage on gold??? people demanding more gold as supply is tightened (try buying bullion from any bullion house) and yet despite all this gold is still down????

I hope the comex market crashes if people do a gold run since the bullion houses dont have enough in their vaults (similar to a bank run) and the price follows the physical (which cannot be manipulated as much as the comex pricing).

Perhaps there might be some down turn but to me its only short term.....


----------



## sinner

At the moment the conspiracy to bust the COMEX is just that, a conspiracy.

As much as I'd love my gold holdings to "double overnight", I'll believe it when I see it.

I'd rather see the US try to monetize some of their debt.


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## explod

sinner said:


> At the moment the conspiracy to bust the COMEX is just that, a conspiracy.
> 
> As much as I'd love my gold holdings to "double overnight", I'll believe it when I see it.
> 
> I'd rather see the US try to monetize some of their debt.




I think it is the other way around.  It is the Comex (backed by the banks and financial industry) trying to bust the gold following.   Money pays interest, trailing fees and commissions, gold does not.   Gold has its own value which cannot be diluted in the long term, money loses value as they print more.  As the financial system is currently structured, gold is the enemy so expect a fight for awhile till the finacial system falls all the way over.   And by the lack of any change coming out of the G20 at the weekend it is going to happen soon.


----------



## GreatPig

explod said:


> The tendency of gold and the Dow in tandem is only a recent aberration



Here are charts of the DOW/Gold ratio. Over the very long term (many decades) the DOW outperforms gold, as shown by the ratio trending up. However, over time frames that matter to individuals, the ratio has moved a lot, with the current short-medium term trend being down - DOW falling, gold rising (relative to each other).

The 1901+ chart would indicate that if the ratio returns to the bottom of the marked channel again, then it will halve from where it is now (it's currently just over 11 by my calculation). That could be something like DOW 7000 and gold $1400, DOW 6000 and gold $1200, etc. If it did a major overshoot though, down to something like one as in 1980, then you'd be talking about either gold prices 5 times as high or the DOW a fifth of the value!

GP


----------



## Dowdy

CFDTrading said:


> Hi Everyone,
> 
> Our analysts at CFDtrading think that gold is headed south, in the long and short term.
> 
> Here are two charts with their analysis.




Don't chart dont mean jack in this market. Did they predict that the AU dollar would plummet in a few months. The markets are being manipulated and they won't be able to do it for long. 

http://www.gata.org/


----------



## amory

appreciate your points Explod!  the cusp of a cliff, I like that.  you are probably right, its the foreigners not the Fed are keeping the dollar up for as long as they can.  but even if it was in the Fed's power, can they lower interest rates without causing massive inflation?  

unless they come up with a solution to the monetary problems which would involve bypassing gold altogether ... some of them are plotting along these lines .... the eventual collapse of the dollar will give Gold a chance.

until then, all sorts of fluctuations ... supply/demand etc, but boomtown ... no!!!

why all this concern about gold anyway?  answer:  what else is there?  take the Dow, it's down 10 points.  with less than half an hour to go, would it be any surprise if it closes 200 pts up or 200 pts down?  that's the sort of market its been the last few days.


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## sinner

explod said:


> I think it is the other way around.  It is the Comex (backed by the banks and financial industry) trying to bust the gold following.   Money pays interest, trailing fees and commissions, gold does not.   Gold has its own value which cannot be diluted in the long term, money loses value as they print more.  As the financial system is currently structured, gold is the enemy so expect a fight for awhile till the finacial system falls all the way over.   And by the lack of any change coming out of the G20 at the weekend it is going to happen soon.




So maybe we are talking about different rumours then? Why would the COMEX crew want to ruin their great business of printing money for gold they don't have? How would they do it anyway? It's not like they can demand delivery on their own paper...

I was under the impression that several large entities (Russia amongst others) were extremely unhappy about the gold price manipulation and had a mind to demand delivery on their entire holdings in Dec, knowing very well COMEX could not possibly deliver, thereby not only busting the COMEX but re-valuing their physical gold reserves to make up for their huge (and still plumetting) losses elsewhere.

Barrick gold rumoured to be in a similar position...


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## barrett

EURJPY is a semaphore for the global credit market in general..  and the restoration (at least partially) of these global credit flows in my view is needed for the gold bull market to resume.

EURJPY looks as though it may be breaking out here - if confirmed I think that would be very bullish indeed for gold.  It should also be bullish for stocks at least in the short term


----------



## arco

*Someone somewhere is looking for a very big load................*

_Hi,

I have person who is interested in buying physical gold 1 tonne from bank to bank transfer.
Anybody has such offers mail me at air2885@yahoo.co.in

Thanks & Best Regards,
Ravi_


arco


----------



## Ageo

arco said:


> *Someone somewhere is looking for a very big load................*
> 
> _Hi,
> 
> I have person who is interested in buying physical gold 1 tonne from bank to bank transfer.
> Anybody has such offers mail me at air2885@yahoo.co.in
> 
> Thanks & Best Regards,
> Ravi_
> 
> 
> arco




Arco if they have the cash you can pick up any amounts (but you need the cash and as the quantity is sufficient).

If you havent noticed Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia & China have all started to stockpile much more gold (good this be a signal for something????)


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## noirua

With markets as they are Gold appears to be the only port left in the storm, thanks to the weak AUD. Price in US$'s may not be great, but are there many metals and commodities doing better?


----------



## arco

Ageo said:


> Arco if they have the cash you can pick up any amounts (but you need the cash and as the quantity is sufficient).
> 
> If you havent noticed Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia & China have all started to stockpile much more gold (good this be a signal for something????)




Hi Ageo
Presuming this is probably what you are referring to...............

*Our oil-rich friends in the Middle East are scared. How do I know?*

Because they are buying gold like crazy!

First, we got the news that Saudi investors spent $3.47 BILLION on gold in a recent two-week period. On a ratio-to-GDP basis, that’s like investors in the U.S. spending $131 BILLION.

Why are they doing this? The only explanation I’ve heard is that the Saudis are turning to gold as a safe haven in the midst of the global financial crisis. And since the financial crisis kicked into high gear in August … something must be scaring them quite a bit more right now.

Second, Reuters reports that Iran is converting some of its foreign currency reserves to gold. Iran has $120 billion in foreign currency reserves … there’s no details on just how much was shoveled into the yellow metal.
Gold dealers in Dubai reported running low on gold during the recent Indian holiday, the Festival of Lights, a traditional time for Indians to buy gold.
Gold dealers in Dubai reported running low on gold during the recent Indian holiday, the Festival of Lights, a traditional time for Indians to buy gold.

Third, gold dealers in Dubai reported running low on gold during the recent Indian holiday, the Festival of Lights, a traditional time for Indians to buy gold. More than 50% of the population of Dubai originally comes from India. And about 20% of the world’s gold is traded in Dubai.

The world is in the grip of economic hard times ”” over 40 countries are officially in a recession. Japan just joined that unhappy club. And the euro-zone nations are already there. We also know that the forces moving the market now seem to be deflationary, not inflationary. That means the value of the U.S. dollar is going up, and the price of gold is trending lower.

But could our friends in the Middle East be thinking beyond the current deflationary spiral? Gold is traditionally a hedge against calamity. So I ask again, what are the oil sheiks afraid of?

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/are-oil-rich-sheiks-being-scared-into-gold-6-28144


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## barrett

barrett said:


> EURJPY looks as though it may be breaking out here - if confirmed I think that would be very bullish indeed for gold.  It should also be bullish for stocks at least in the short term....




Forgot to say it would also be a bearish sign for assets vs cash if it breaks to the downside.. I think it's important either way what happens to it.  As EURJPY goes, so go the capital/credit markets.


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## hitmanlam

Is it just me or does everyone feel like something big is going to happen in the next couple of days.  I think gold could move either up or down big time!  There's massive support at $720.  Someones accumulating some gold.  Could this be the bottom of a massive rally?  Or will it break through $720.  And go sub $700?  I have no idea what will happen.

Its quite interesting that all the markets are at key pivotal points right now.

DOW 8000
EUR/USD $1.25
Gold $735

Coincidence?   I think not!!!!


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## >Apocalypto<

Weekly Gold chart,

The trend is dead but is the bull? some say no some say yes. I sit on the yes side of the fence. I am a USD bull right now.

support on the 38.2 good sign as leads to tell us it's a fast trend. I think gold is due for a rally right now. USD due for a decent pull back. 

I like 800-850 on spot but i then think it will continue south to the 50% and trend line at 600 -650.

if gold beats the trend line or makes it to the high 800s to 900 then forms a higher low that will change the game plan!

Short term Rally overall bear market, these are just ideas on what i see on the chart

Cheers


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## explod

We have an earlier break upwards this evening and more than has been the case for awhile.   With the gold price continuing to hang on in the face of falling markets I feel a big disconnect will attract considerable attention.

Could be an interesting period overnight.


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## chops_a_must

explod said:


> We have an earlier break upwards this evening and more than has been the case for awhile.   With the gold price continuing to hang on in the face of falling markets I feel a big disconnect will attract considerable attention.
> 
> Could be an interesting period overnight.




That's exactly what I'm thinking.

Could be an almighty fake out however.

If we are deflating, I'm yet to be convinced it is bullish for gold. So... 50/50 call but something tradeable either way none the less.


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## explod

chops_a_must said:


> That's exactly what I'm thinking.
> 
> Could be an almighty fake out however.
> 
> If we are deflating, I'm yet to be convinced it is bullish for gold. So... 50/50 call but something tradeable either way none the less.




The scale of the changes taking place are global and on a scale never experienced before in history.  The economic outlooks or views, if you like, are very many which present considerable conundrums.   Some schools are saying we have inflation due to rising prices in food, others deflation from falling oil prices.  I have my own view but would be keen to discuss your take Chops on what you define as deflation in the context here as it may relate to gold?


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> The scale of the changes taking place are global and on a scale never experienced before in history.  The economic outlooks or views, if you like, are very many which present considerable conundrums.   Some schools are saying we have inflation due to rising prices in food, others deflation from falling oil prices.  I have my own view but would be keen to discuss your take Chops on what you define as deflation in the context here as it may relate to gold?




I believe this sums it up:


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## cuttlefish

I think everything at the moment is pointing to a prolonged and deep deflationary recession/depression ... which makes me think that the complete opposite may actually be what we get. :   All we need is for Bernanke to find a much bigger helicopter ... maybe a few chinooks will do the trick.

If US productivity falls too much they won't be able to fund essential budget items alongside their debt commitments.  What happens then ... surely they will go to the printing presses rather than default.

And another question ... what exactly is the USD rising against ... and how does relativity theory come into it?   If I drop a Euro, a Deutchmark, a Pound, a Dollar and a Yen out of a plane some will fall slower than the others  but they're still all going to hit the ground eventually.


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## cuttlefish

Just watched the newstopia thing chops posted ... that does pretty much sum it up too doesn't it.


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## explod

cuttlefish said:


> Just watched the newstopia thing chops posted ... that does pretty much sum it up too doesn't it.




Not able to run utube on my speed so will have to sit out till I get a clearer answer.   However reading between the lines, few economists, even those who predicted the current play are able to say where to now and what will occur.   All I know is that in the longer term, gold has been going up whilst the markets are going the other way.  It is preserving my stake at the moment.


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## nunthewiser

By Chris Flood , Financial Times, 19 Nov 2008
Sales of gold coins and bars reached their highest levels for more than a decade in the third quarter while gold exchange traded funds saw record inflows as investors sought a safe haven from the crisis in financial markets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank. 

The enormity of that rush into the gold market in the third quarter was revealed by the World Gold Council in its latest Gold Demand Trends report, published on Wednesday. 

The industry sponsored WGC said consumers spent more than $6.5bn in buying 232.1 tonnes of gold coins and bars in the third quarter of 2008, an increase of 121 per cent in volume terms over the same period a year ago, and the strongest three-month period since the mid 1990s. 

The WGC's report provides confirmation of previously anecdotal evidence of record investor interest. 

The third quarter saw media reports that mints around the world had run out of gold coins as Lehman's collapse sparked concerns among investors about the health of the world's financial system. 

However, the WGC's data indicates that retail investment interest in gold has been increasing steadily over the past year. 

In the first three-quarters of this year, net retail investment in coins and bars reached 443.6 tonnes, 10 per cent more than all of 2007. 

Germany and Switzerland experienced a surge in demand for coins and bars in the third quarter with net retail investment of 19 tonnes and 21 tonnes respectively, up 533 per cent and 500 per cent compared with the same period a year ago. 

In Europe, coins and bar sales in the third quarter alone reached 51 tonnes, exceeding each annual total for retail investment demand during the entire 18 ½ years of available data. 

Meanwhile, gold Exchange Traded Funds also saw record buying interest with inflows of 150 tonnes in the third quarter, up 8 per cent over the same period last year, with investors spending more than $4.2bn accumulating holdings in ETFs. 

Lehman's implosion in September led to a jump in ETF inflows, which surged by an unprecedented 100 tonnes in just five consecutive trading days.

Strong growth was also seen in the jewellery sector where demand reached 647.6 tonnes in the third quarter, up 8 per cent compared with the same period last year, and taking spending to $18.2bn. 

India, the world's largest jewellery market saw demand reach 178.5 tonnes up 29 per cent compared with the same period last year as consumers rushed to take advantage of lower prices ahead of the Diwali festival in October.

Total identifiable gold demand (investment, jewellery, industrial and dental) reached 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, up 18 per cent compared with the same period last year. in value terms, this represented spending of $31.8bn, a record, and an increase of 51 per cent compared with the third quarter of last year. 

The WGC said strong demand for gold coins, bars and ETFs had continued into the fourth quarter but cautioned that this was being offset by ongoing weakness in jewellery markets in the US and UK.


----------



## sinner

Just look at the physical market in Aus right now. Sovs on eBay are going for $300+, want gold "gift" bars from Perth Mint $750 per 10g (with the majority of other stock showing sold out)...I shudder to think of those holding ZAUWBA or unallocated PMG gold certs who might try and execute those warrants for physical delivery, who knows what the delay could be...if you run these numbers we are talking $2250/oz

All the bullion bars on ebay are trading at spot RIGHT now, 1-5 days before auction close (any ebayer will tell you this means plenty more room for the end price to rise).

All the physical silver I can see online is also trading at 2-4x spot price...not due to excessive expectations from the buyers, high demand is driving this price up...

Whoever said they are picking stuff up at spot, please let us know how you are doing this!


----------



## jeflin

The International Energy Agency forecast oil prices reaching $200 in 2030, I think it is conservative and oil prices could spike beyond that level much earlier.
Gold will enjoy a surge too, though I don't know by how much. 

Even if gold is not performing well now, I don't see myself giving up gold to chase the US dollar, or any fiat currency.


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> Not able to run utube on my speed so will have to sit out till I get a clearer answer.   However reading between the lines, few economists, even those who predicted the current play are able to say where to now and what will occur.   All I know is that in the longer term, gold has been going up whilst the markets are going the other way.  It is preserving my stake at the moment.



I tried finidng a transcript for you but no luck.  I'm sorry explod old chap.

It basically expolored the contradictions in monetary policy from central banks, in a satirical way. In the end when Shaun Micallef points out to him that when currencies are valued against each other, not on the basis of gold, they are ultimately worthless. The spokesperson is then seen in camera after a cut away, with only his legs and feet in shot. He's obviously hung himself after having this said to him. Therefore... hilarity.

I hope that captured most of the humour for you. 


cuttlefish said:


> Just watched the newstopia thing chops posted ... that does pretty much sum it up too doesn't it.




Indeed.

Basically... my thoughts from here. We are deflating... I'm not convinced that is bullish for gold. We are almost certain to inflate at some stage, but that looks a way off as there is no velocity in the application of money into assets.

Therefore, any rise in gold, or bullish stance here, is a play on currency destruction. Which is why the clip sums up my position nicely. 

Cheers.


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> Whoever said they are picking stuff up at spot, please let us know how you are doing this!




Well i actual buy below spot but i buy alot of 2ndhand jewellery (otherwise known as scrap gold). I come across alot of 24ct but i mainly send it off to get remodeled into new jewellery as sitting in my safe doesnt earn me any income. Remember any gold (including 9ct, 18ct jewellery etc..) has value.


----------



## sinner

Thanks Ageo, if you get below spot and have remodelling service access how about you remodel some of that 24ct into bars/coins for us and sell at spot + $20 remodelling fee?

Forget jewellery, you'd make a killing on ebay.

I'll take $200 of spot silver in bars and 1 oz of gold thanks. Promise to come back for more


----------



## CFDTrading

Well, here is what our analysts think the spot price of gold is off to. And its mixed news, depending on your wishes. While it did break above the recent downward channel, it is not clear whether in the near term this will be sustained. 

Here is the short term outlook. 

*Short-Term Technical Forecast for Gold*







COMEX Gold prices briefly broke above clear trend channel resistance, but the contract quickly reversed and now trades below said resistance level. The false break is similar to the one we saw just a week ago, and gold prices have thus far remained within their recent downtrend channel. Our bias subsequently remains to the downside, and gold currently trades near relevant support levels at the 730.00 mark. A break below would confirm that the shorter-term trend remains to the downside, and we would subsequently target previous spike-lows near 725.


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> Thanks Ageo, if you get below spot and have remodelling service access how about you remodel some of that 24ct into bars/coins for us and sell at spot + $20 remodelling fee?
> 
> Forget jewellery, you'd make a killing on ebay.
> 
> I'll take $200 of spot silver in bars and 1 oz of gold thanks. Promise to come back for more




Hehe sinner lets say i purchase 1kg of 9ct gold for below market (market is around $14.73p/g) but i can pick it up for around $13p/g if i look hard enough) Now lets say to remodel into new italian jewellery plus shipping etc.. it will cost me another $5p/g ($5000 all up) So we would have a total of around $18000 invested, lets say i sell that 1kg to a buyer this is how alot of jewellers do it now....... they would give me 1kg of 9ct scrap gold (or equivalent the gold content plus 5% for wastage) and that would cover the gold so you dont worry about price fluctuations. Then we would trade on the labour and usually i would get around $10p/g, so i would make around $5p/g  profit ($5000 on a kilo) and i could easily do that in a month (we did it just 2 weeks ago) so your return on that money outlayed is around just under 30%.

Then you send off the gold to be remodeled and so on..... (at the same time benefiting from the rising prices of gold if it goes up).

So as you can see it would be a waste of time for me to sell to you hehe (plus i have a buyer for the rest of my scrap who pays very handsomely).

Sorry for the slight off topic just wanted to show you how else gold can be traded etc...


----------



## sinner

Ageo said:


> Hehe sinner lets say i purchase 1kg of 9ct gold for below market (market is around $14.73p/g) but i can pick it up for around $13p/g if i look hard enough) Now lets say to remodel into new italian jewellery plus shipping etc.. it will cost me another $5p/g ($5000 all up) So we would have a total of around $18000 invested, lets say i sell that 1kg to a buyer this is how alot of jewellers do it now....... they would give me 1kg of 9ct scrap gold (or equivalent the gold content plus 5% for wastage) and that would cover the gold so you dont worry about price fluctuations. Then we would trade on the labour and usually i would get around $10p/g, so i would make around $5p/g  profit ($5000 on a kilo) and i could easily do that in a month (we did it just 2 weeks ago) so your return on that money outlayed is around just under 30%.
> 
> Then you send off the gold to be remodeled and so on..... (at the same time benefiting from the rising prices of gold if it goes up).
> 
> So as you can see it would be a waste of time for me to sell to you hehe (plus i have a buyer for the rest of my scrap who pays very handsomely).
> 
> Sorry for the slight off topic just wanted to show you how else gold can be traded etc...




Thanks again for some insights Ageo, I was only being half serious 

I am picking up silver at spot in the form of pre WW2 sixpence and crowns (0.83-0.84 troy oz per coin) and managed to find a small amount of gold sovs at $250-280 compared to the $3-400 most others seem to be paying if they can even get them, I am happy to pay it at this point. A few more oz's and I will have accumulated my desired amount, hope to get this in bullion bars trading at spot, so the effort has been a lot more just to accumulate than if I went and got 200-300 ZAUWBA and tried to redeem it (who knows how long it would take for Perth Mint to deliver physical these days? almost everything on their site is sold out!)

Thanks for the charts CFDTrading, I also noticed the two spikes you describe as fakeouts, in my opinion this is the issue with only analysing the trend rather than specific events occuring. The massive spike which took us shortly out of the downward trend was a very large buy near open which is more indicative to me of massive accumulation by big parties who are **** scared rather than examining the trend. I am happy and willing to be wrong, I would much prefer my gold holdings to languish and the stock market to resume its lovely funny money trend.


----------



## explod

I have been scrounging 1966 50 cent coins for around $5 each, they contain 80% silver and approx 3 coins for a whole ounce of silver (currently $14.40 Aussie) so consider that a good deal.

And the HUI index up 25% in one session.   That is unprecedented.


----------



## cuttlefish

Nice moves in gold overnight, will be interesting to see if they are sustained.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

Great move in Gold at last.

From what I can gather Gold has officially gone into backwardation which resulted in the shorts falling over themselves to cover last night. 

For those who are unfamiliar with the term *backwardation*, it is a market condition in which the spot price exceeds the future price, or a nearby futures price is greater than a more distant futures price. Gold very rarely goes into backwardation (last time was in 1999) and it can occur when there is a threat to take delivery of Gold.

Hopefully we will see an explosion upward in price  but knowing how much the US has been trying to suppress the price of Gold I don't think they will give in easily 

This move will probably be the catalyst for the breakdown of the USD too.

Bankit.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

bankit said:


> Gold very rarely goes into backwardation (last time was in 1999) and it can occur when there is *a threat to take delivery of Gold.*
> 
> Hopefully we will see an explosion upward in price  but knowing how much the US has been trying to suppress the price of Gold I don't think they will give in easily
> 
> This move will probably be the catalyst for the breakdown of the USD too.
> 
> Bankit.




The suggestion, if not fact, is that the December futures counter parties will be called apon to deliver!!! The link to oil is dead, the link to the USD is about to be? Gold set free......watch NCM fly, and the rest of the goldies for that matter!


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> watch NCM fly, and the rest of the goldies for that matter!



Looks pretty prospective for a decent rally doesn't it.

But, up is down and down is up at the moment.

Some 'positive' gold related news could come out and it will tank....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The train has left the station if you want physical.................



> Perth Mint sales and marketing director Ron Currie said the unprecedented demand had forced the Mint to cease orders until January, with staff working seven days a week, 24-hour days, over three shifts to meet orders.
> He said Europe was leading the demand, with Russia, Ukraine, Middle East and US all buying -- making up 80 per cent of its sales. One European client purchased 30,000 ounces for $33 million.






> The quarter also witnessed widespread reports of gold shortages among bullion dealers across the globe, as investors searched for a haven. Overall, quarter three saw Europe reach an all-time record 51 tonnes of bar and coin buying. France became a net investor in gold for the first time since the early 1980s.




http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24687337-643,00.html


----------



## rederob

> FEARS of the unknown long-term effects from the global financial crisis have sparked a new gold rush.
> 
> With retail and wholesale clients around the world stocking up on the precious metal, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders.
> 
> As the World Gold Council reported that the dollar demand for gold reached a quarterly record of $US32 billion ($50.73 billion) in the third quarter, industry insiders said the race to secure physical gold had reached an intensity that had never been witnessed before.
> 
> Perth Mint sales and marketing director Ron Currie said the unprecedented demand had forced the Mint to cease orders until January, with staff working seven days a week, 24-hour days, over three shifts to meet orders.
> 
> He said Europe was leading the demand, with Russia, Ukraine, Middle East and US all buying -- making up 80 per cent of its sales. One European client purchased 30,000 ounces for $33 million.
> 
> "We have never seen this before and are working right at capacity. And we are seeing it from clients in the shop buying one ounce, right up to 30,000 ounces from overseas clients," Mr Currie said.
> 
> Robert Jaggard, manager of bullion and rare coins dealer Jaggards, said business had picked up strongly and he expected it to increase further.
> 
> "All around the world there has been a heavy run on physical gold and there is a shortage of supply," he said.



Linked from http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24687337-643,00.html


----------



## rederob

Sorry UF - you were first!


----------



## chops_a_must

Looks like a confirmed break, so I'll be looking to set up some plays on the options come Monday.


----------



## rederob

> Jewellery demand accounts for about 60 per cent of total gold demand. China has already reported an 18 per cent increase in gold demand for the third quarter, bolstered by its increasingly affluent population.
> 
> China is now the world's largest gold producer, although it is still a gold importing country.
> 
> Jewellery demand in India also remains strong into the fourth quarter. Some 50 tonnes of gold were sold in the first two days of the Diwali festive season alone.
> 
> Physical gold aside, market-watchers said gold exchange traded funds are also growing in popularity.
> 
> Sammy Yip, head, Exchange Traded Funds Asia Pacific, State Street Global Advisors, said: "I think with the recent credit crunch, investors are looking for an asset class to diversify their risk in their portfolio, and I think gold always performs as a very consistent diversifier in a lot of investors' portfolios."
> 
> Exchange traded funds, gold bars and coins were the highest contributor to the spike in gold demand for the third quarter, bringing some US$10.7 billion worth of gold investment to the table, or double on-year.



Another link: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/marketnews/view/391369/1/.html


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Looks like decent short term weakness creeping in on the USD. this cont pattern is now starting to suggest topping patten. the rally with the question mark is just pie in the sky. For now concentrating on were it may drop.

as well as gold going up (refer to my last gold post) I think that the AUD and EUR will rally to the USD for the short term. nice finish in the us market show appetite for risk is slowing rising again.....

USD Index 4 hour chart


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wont a rising AUD force the aud physical price down???


----------



## subi1

>Apocalypto< said:


> wont a rising AUD force the aud physical price down???




AUD rose against the USD last night but Gold went up and therefore the  Australian dollar Gold price is $1268 now.

DYOR


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> I have been scrounging 1966 50 cent coins for around $5 each, they contain 80% silver and approx 3 coins for a whole ounce of silver (currently $14.40 Aussie) so consider that a good deal.
> 
> And the HUI index up 25% in one session.   That is unprecedented.




Hi explod, I hope you are not one of those many people on ebay currently paying above spot for those coins from that Adelaide coin dealer. There ia frenzy!

By my rough calculations each coin 0.34 troy oz of 0.92 silver = 17 ounces per fifty coins = ~$250-260 at spot price, people have already bid up to $315 with 20h to go! 

Like you said, unprecedented.

Just go look at the MACD for HUI.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Hi explod, I hope you are not one of those many people on ebay currently paying above spot for those coins from that Adelaide coin dealer. There ia frenzy!
> 
> By my rough calculations each coin 0.34 troy oz of 0.92 silver = 17 ounces per fifty coins = ~$250-260 at spot price, people have already bid up to $315 with 20h to go!
> 
> Like you said, unprecedented.
> 
> Just go look at the MACD for HUI.




I have been buying for $5.00 a coin which is ok, $5.30 today.  In fact I dont' think it will be as good as this for years.   Dealer finding supply drying up and only had a few left after my dip today.   Have seen some dealers up to $9 in showcases.   Robbers?


----------



## sinner

I am getting the sixpence for between $5-10 at 0.84troz/coin which by my rough calculation I'm paying $9/troz. Not bad, but I don't expect it to last.


----------



## alfy

Hi everyone

As the AUD is weak against the USD, doesn't this mean that any gold purchased now will lose a significant amount of value when the AUD regains strength?

Unless of course the price of gold rose at a faster or corresponding rate.

I'd appreciate an explanation of this relationship. I can find plenty of information on the relationship between the USD and gold, but not the AUD as well.

Thank you very much.


----------



## Whiskers

alfy said:


> Hi everyone
> 
> As the AUD is weak against the USD, doesn't this mean that any gold purchased now will lose a significant amount of value when the AUD regains strength?
> 
> Unless of course the price of gold rose at a faster or corresponding rate.
> 
> I'd appreciate an explanation of this relationship. I can find plenty of information on the relationship between the USD and gold, but not the AUD as well.
> 
> Thank you very much.




All other things being equal, (which they often aren't) the price in other currencies is usually just a function of the currency conversion. On that note the USD Index has risen over the last year but is expected to fall again soon. The Euro accounts for about half of the USDX with a bit of GBP, JPY and something else... just can't think of it right now.

There's a chart at the bottom of the Kitco Home page which is useful to get a picture of where USD gold is in relation to other currencies. http://www.kitco.com/


----------



## chops_a_must

I think people should take a big look at gold.

Some serious, serious volume being moved through...


----------



## cuttlefish

Yeah gold is getting interesting at the moment - some very nice support for gold stocks at the moment as well and it appears to be starting to act a bit independantly to other sectors of the market.


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> I think people should take a big look at gold.
> 
> Some serious, serious volume being moved through...




There has been some talk about possible problems with delivery on the December contract. I don't know the dynamics, but we're getting towards the end of the contract.

Plus, there seems to be money appearing for all assets. My futures is showing bright green all over the place. Copper and Silver are running HARD.


----------



## chops_a_must

wayneL said:


> There has been some talk about possible problems with delivery on the December contract. I don't know the dynamics, but we're getting towards the end of the contract.
> 
> Plus, there seems to be money appearing for all assets. My futures is showing bright green all over the place. Copper and Silver are running HARD.



Call time on the GLD I think.

Not gonna play the futures options like you will. :


----------



## Wysiwyg

815.00 USD = 1,279.36 AUD 

Good value at the exchange rate and they reckon Aussie gold miners are at an all time production low.

Oh and hello Wayne.


----------



## Bobby

wayneL said:


> There has been some talk about possible problems with delivery on the December contract. I don't know the dynamics, but we're getting towards the end of the contract.
> 
> Plus, there seems to be money appearing for all assets. My futures is showing bright green all over the place. Copper and Silver are running HARD.




Hello Wayne,

Long time speaking to you , do hope your well , happy & safe .

Can you elaborate  on those futures showing green please 

Regards Bob.


----------



## wayneL

Bobby said:


> Hello Wayne,
> 
> Long time speaking to you , do hope your well , happy & safe .
> 
> Can you elaborate  on those futures showing green please
> 
> Regards Bob.



Heya Bobby,

Yep,

All metals, grains, meats and softs are up strongly The only things slightly down on my screen is bonds and , Yen.

You can track futures prices at www.barchart.com or www.futuresource.com


----------



## Bobby

Thanks Wayne,
I do appreciate that 

regards Bob


----------



## explod

I dont' believe, Jon Nadler on Kitko has quoted a crdible article on finance and gold which is a worthwhile read today.

A bit of it:    







> In this respect the present crisis in the West will ultimately end up discrediting mechanical monetarism -- and with it the fiat paper-money system in general -- as the U.S. paper-dollar standard, in place since Richard Nixon broke the link with gold in 1971, finally disintegrates.
> 
> The catalyst will be foreign creditors fleeing the dollar for gold. That will in turn lead to global recognition of the need for a vastly more disciplined global financial system and one where gold, the "barbarous relic" scorned by most modern central bankers, may well play a part."


----------



## Temjin

Now I hope this isn't another fake rally for the POG (or fake correction for USD) because it did happen a few weeks ago. The signals were all there but it was false. We just need to wait for the commercial to move all back in again.  

And yes, welcome back WayneL.


----------



## BentRod

wayneL said:


> Heya Bobby,
> 
> Yep,
> 
> All metals, grains, meats and softs are up strongly The only things slightly down on my screen is bonds and , Yen.
> 
> You can track futures prices at www.barchart.com or www.futuresource.com




Welcome back Wayne!


----------



## amory

Good morning Explod.

<< The catalyst will be foreign creditors fleeing the dollar for gold.  >>

they've been telling us that for some considerable length of time & aren't everyone getting sick of that "fiat-money" slur on the dollar?

but the fact is that this morning the USDollar does look weak against both the yen & the euro.

I wouldn't write Gold off at this stage.


----------



## explod

amory said:


> Good morning Explod.
> 
> << The catalyst will be foreign creditors fleeing the dollar for gold.  >>
> 
> they've been telling us that for some considerable length of time & aren't everyone getting sick of that "fiat-money" slur on the dollar?
> 
> but the fact is that this morning the USDollar does look weak against both the yen & the euro.
> 
> I wouldn't write Gold off at this stage.




Top of the morning to you too Amory.   

My rough shorthand writing gets me into trouble a lot.    What I did mean is that Nadler has changed stance of late and as he has been such a big part of the propagander machine against gold sentiment, "I could not believe it" 

And yes the turn of the $US index probably signals a big change in gold direction.   Could we see $US900 by Friday's close, maybe $899 

cheers


----------



## sinner

Here is some T/A on gold for the short term

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/burak112308.html

Gold EW

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/field112408.html

and this one

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11916.htm

Happy hunting folks!

I made my play on late Friday night while the US markets were going nuts and early on Monday morning. Accumulation for me is complete on the physical and stock market fronts (as small as my holdings are). I dropped out of IGR and TRY at a small loss due to some misgivings about their operations and shifted that capital all into RMS.

I think we are at a pivotal moment this week, and now is the time to put your money where your mouth is.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

Here is some food for thought.....*"The Gold price over Thanksgiving"*

The item that is of most interest is the second last paragraph....

_Lastly, there are those shrinking short positions for both gold and silver and the unknown number of holders of December futures contracts who, on Friday, will announce their desire to take delivery of the metal next month rather than having the contracts settled in cash._​ 
_http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/iacono/2008/1125.html_​

_Bankit_​


----------



## chops_a_must

I expect that to be a consequence for the next few months at least.

If the Perth Mint isn't selling anything, the only way to buy it for big buyers may be to go on market.

Pretty obvious trade really at the moment.


----------



## Temjin

sinner said:


> I think we are at a pivotal moment this week, and now is the time to put your money where your mouth is.




It's already in my mouth for a long while now. 

Though I'm still slightly cautious because there are way too much technical damage done on the POG and there are still signs of massive liquidation/deflation everywhere. Not to mention guys like Jim Roger, while like gold, is still predicting USD may produce a further rally until next year before it is all over.

Of course, he may be wrong too!


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> It's already in my mouth for a long while now.
> 
> Though I'm still slightly cautious because there are way too much technical damage done on the POG and there are still signs of massive liquidation/deflation everywhere. Not to mention guys like Jim Roger, while like gold, is still predicting USD may produce a further rally until next year before it is all over.
> 
> Of course, he may be wrong too!




Agree.  We only have to observe the US system trying to hold together the banks and the Dow to know that they will not give up the US dollar dominance as reserve currency without an enormous fight.  They will print money till the machines melt down.

As has been said on this thread many times in the last 8 months, it will hold out to at least the change to the new Presidential team.

The lack of supply however will cause a rally of sorts in my view, they may well let it run up to break the high of last March to say $US1,100, then when all eyes are watching smash it down again to current levels.  (remember, SENTIMENT, SENTIMENT)  Demand from now into January has been traditionally strong for the last 25 years, so we will see what pans out.   But after March next year economic numbers are going to be very grim indeed when we can expect the US dollar to go into free fall IMHO.


----------



## cuttlefish

> and now is the time to put your money where your mouth is.




I've got my money where my foot is ... does that count.  

(as in have been suffering from foot in mouth over gold optimism so far this year ...)

Long and loaded as always


----------



## CFDTrading

Short-Term Technical Forecast for Gold







COMEX Gold's break above its short-term price channel caused us to flip our previously bearish stance in favor of gains, and our bullish targets have now been far surpassed on an incredible multi-day rally. Gold prices next eye potentially important resistance levels at the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 935-680 move at 840. Said 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement is often referred to as the make-or-break level for an existing trend, and a break higher would suggest that a move towards 935 is likely. Our short-term bias remains bullish, and near-term support can be found at previous resistance of 808 and the psychologically significant 800 mark.

Wednesday, 26 November 2008 21:32:25 GMT
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst 
Click Here for the full article.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

Like most of us I see Gold moving up strongly in the coming months.

The current chart pattern from the recent higher low is very bullish and prices holding near the high of the 25th November is another bullish clue as to the direction Gold will take.

Support should hold above the $800 mark as indicated on the chart below.

Normally I would expect to see this leg (starting on the 20th) to extend to the red 161.8% level at $860 and then we would have the support levels of $835 and $800 coming into play. If by chance Gold ignores the $860 level then we will have a very high momentum move up

Further up we have very solid resistance in the $900 region and we should expect a pause or pull back in this area. 

Other resistances on the way to the previous high in March are also marked on the chart.

Bankit.


----------



## sinner

Ah another Friday nightshift, watching the US markets and the gold price.

I will let this chart  just made (at US market open) speak for itself:

Bollinger bands, moving average, MACD and slow stochastic metric (PKS):


----------



## explod

> Emerging As A Clear Winner
> In a most interesting development, Mr Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in the UK Daily Telegraph newspaper has reported that Citigroup has sent out an "internal client note" predicting that Gold is poised for a "dramatic surge" and could "blast through $US 2000 per ounce by the end of next year". There have, of course, been no shortage of predictions for Gold to go to "$US X thousand per ounce" in the not too distant future. This one is especially interesting because of the source. Given the fact that the Fed and the Treasury just this week agreed to guarantee $US 306 Billion "worth" of toxic assets currently held by Citigroup, one would have thought that this type of prediction was not part of the deal.
> 
> Nonetheless, there it is.
> 
> As you know, Gold peaked on a spot future closing basis back in March this year. At that point, it had risen by 300 percent (that's actually a quadrupling in price) since its 1999-2001 lows. At its spot future close of $US 816.20 on November 28, Gold had risen by about 226 percent (or about three and a quarter times) since those lows. There is nothing else in the way of financial (paper) assets, or for that matter real assets like other commodities, which comes close to that record.




This quote from this weeks "Privateer" newsletter.


----------



## GreatPig

explod said:


> its 1999-2001 lows. At its spot future close of $US 816.20 on November 28, Gold had risen by about 226 percent (or about three and a quarter times) since those lows. There is nothing else in the way of financial (paper) assets, or for that matter real assets like other commodities, which comes close to that record.



_Nothing_ else?

Let's see:

PDN, a paper financial asset, averaged around 8 cents between 1999 and 2001. It closed today at $2.50, or 31.25 times the price, which is over 3000%.

TOL, another paper financial asset, was around 71 cents at its 1999 low. It closed today at $5.60, or nearly 8 times the price, which is nearly 700%.

There are plenty of other stocks with higher gains than gold over that period.

Just because the index hasn't averaged those gains doesn't mean there's _nothing_ else that did. If he can isolate gold out of all commodities, then I think it's fair to isolate individual stocks out of the index by way of comparison.

GP


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Are the planets aligning for gold, finally! Is this the last chance for a decent entry ($770)?

Not sure if it's been posted, but here is literally a goldmine of broker research and interesting facts about gold, gold equities & golds relative performance, if you can believe JP Morgan . Either that or they just need some bunnies to take their short trades and bump up open interest?

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganGoldReport-11-25-2008.pdf

To me gold looks like it wants to go organically higher but the 2 bullion banks are still in control at most opportunistic times, along with trigger finger nervousness from the hedgies & fundies.

The data suggests there is in fact a sizable increase in the amount of futures _deliveries_ for the Dec contract.....could be explosive......geopolitical issues about to make their mark again (India/Pakistan plus nukes = )


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah uncle, I've been tossing around as many different scenerios as I can think of but still pretty much come up with a pretty sharp rise in gold any time from the end of the year into early next year.

There is the supply (or growing lack of) issue in the face of most likely higher inflation forecasts as these big interest rate cuts and gov spending programs kick in.

I think the main reason the share markets kicked lower is because Bush failed to deliver on his early rhetoric to improve the regulation and transparency of the markets. .. ie to say  investers would have gained more confidence about the true position of the markets much sooner. So instead of getting the zig zag abc I was initially expecting it seems we'll get a huge Expanded Flat.

I haven't seen any EW count's here for some time, so I'm putting mine up, with my two main alternatives for critique.

Basically I'm seeing gold hit a high sometime probably in the first half of next year about 1,500+.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was only a (3) wave leg *3*, forming a Diagonal Triangle. 

I cannot see it continuing on to 3,000 or 5,000 levels in this run up. It sounds reasonable to me that once gold gets over 1,000 again substantial new production will become viable and kick in to take advantage of the high prices and flood the market again and the price will then fall back considerably to below wave *1* 1030, for wave 4 . 

I did consider that the recent low was wave 5 down, in which case we would need 3 up before 5 down again for wave *2*. But, for the life of me I just can't imagine any circumstance that might cause that to happen... but open for discussion.


----------



## mazzatelli1000

Whiskers said:


> I haven't seen any EW count's here for some time, so I'm putting mine up, with my two main alternatives for critique.




Whiskers, correct me if I am wrong as I am still tinkering with EW

Where you have labelled wave (ii) and (i) - if this is part of a motive wave - wave (ii) shouldn't retrace more than 100% of wave (i)?


----------



## Whiskers

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Whiskers, correct me if I am wrong as I am still tinkering with EW
> 
> Where you have labelled wave (ii) and (i) - if this is part of a motive wave - wave (ii) shouldn't retrace more than 100% of wave (i)?




Hi mazzatelli. I'm pretty new to EW too.

Maybe I should have labled (1) as (a) and (2) as (b), as I am anticipating (for lack of other realistically foreseeable alternatives) an Expanded Flat for wave *3*, consequently making the larger cycle a Diagonal Triangle where wave *4* would retrace most if not all of my anticaped wave *3* by late 2009 or 2010.

Of course, as I mentioned, if the latest low is a fifth wave down, we must be in the corrective abc now and ultimately headed lower still towards (I think roughly) mid 400's. I just can't imagine any circumstamce where that might happen, yet.

So, assuming that count isn't right it seems we're pretty much left with an Expanded Flat leading off the next leg *3*... unless someone can enlighten us to another count alternative... or the ar*e falling right out of gold too in the near future.


----------



## wayneL

Whiskers said:


> Hi mazzatelli. I'm pretty new to EW too.
> 
> Maybe I should have labled (1) as (a) and (2) as (b), as I am anticipating (for lack of other realistically foreseeable alternatives) an Expanded Flat for wave *3*, consequently making the larger cycle a Diagonal Triangle where wave *4* would retrace most if not all of my anticaped wave *3* by late 2009 or 2010.
> 
> Of course, as I mentioned, if the latest low is a fifth wave down, we must be in the corrective abc now and ultimately headed lower still towards (I think roughly) mid 400's. I just can't imagine any circumstamce where that might happen, yet.
> 
> So, assuming that count isn't right it seems we're pretty much left with an Expanded Flat leading off the next leg *3*... unless someone can enlighten us to another count alternative... or the ar*e falling right out of gold too in the near future.




The market is punting on deflation for the medium term... not good for gold on the face of it.


----------



## Dowdy

anyone here try to order physical gold from the dealers.

My brother called up yesterday and there's a wait til FEB!

If you want immediate delivery they put a 35-40% premium on the spot price!


----------



## Whiskers

wayneL said:


> The market is punting on deflation for the medium term... not good for gold on the face of it.






Dowdy said:


> anyone here try to order physical gold from the dealers.
> 
> My brother called up yesterday and there's a wait til FEB!
> 
> If you want immediate delivery they put a 35-40% premium on the spot price!




Quite so... these are the contridictions in the market signals. Not too unlike oil before it tanked.

I guess the significant thing with gold in the near term is the level of physical demand for jewellery etc and any Reserve Bank's buying/selling activity.

Now would be a good time to have a crystal ball.


----------



## Temjin

Dowdy said:


> anyone here try to order physical gold from the dealers.
> 
> My brother called up yesterday and there's a wait til FEB!
> 
> If you want immediate delivery they put a 35-40% premium on the spot price!




That is only true for silver, but not gold. There are still plenty in stock I believe. 

An interesting report released by JP Morgan just last week. I thought they were a net shorters of gold, but this report seem to indicate they are bullish on gold.

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganGoldReport-11-25-2008.pdf


----------



## sinner

Managed to get a couple of oz's at spot.

**** the dealers! Better to buy shares in their company than their bullion :

You can buy physical gold on ebay right now (upto 50 ounces) at 1400 which is 15ish% premium on todays spot. Of course the same price looked a lot closer to a 10% premium last Friday before the price dropped again, so up to you on that count I guess.

If you want sovereigns expect this 15% to be built into the price.

Silver is trading at 100+% of spot price.

You could always try holding ZAUWBA (100 warrants = 1 ounce) but who knows if you will ever be able to redeem it? Examining the PMG fine print does not look very promising, redemption being in a timescale of their choosing.

Then there is services like goldmoney.com, not sure how these guys go as I signed up only to see the entire interface is blocked off until you send in some paperwork or something! But the gist of the idea is you give them money and they can buy/store your gold at spot because they are a large player. Pretty much identical to holding GOLD etf I guess.

Basically, physical gold is still out there, but unless you are buying in large amounts (at COMEX 50,000 ounce levels I assume), or don't need the physical, don't expect to be paying the COMEX price.


----------



## Ageo

Hmm looks like alot of people are finding it hard it seems (with spreads blowing right out).

If people are interested in buying @ around 10% above the spot then let me know.... i might be able to get my hands on some.


----------



## MRC & Co

wayneL said:


> The market is punting on deflation for the medium term... not good for gold on the face of it.




Exactly.

And that daily above is all LHs and LLs after a long uptrend.  From memory, most times I see that pattern, on most timeframes, it always ends up falling off a cliff.


----------



## joeyr46

The chart above shows overlapping waves and best count I can give it is A B C X A B now needs another low for C probably around $600 or so and then it might be time for a rally or if deflation really takes hold could go a lot lower imo
Also most of you seem bullish which is not good for a rally of any size
am not trying to say you are wrong just that when most people think something is going one way it usually goes the other


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Exactly.
> 
> And that daily above is all LHs and LLs after a long uptrend.  From memory, most times I see that pattern, on most timeframes, it always ends up falling off a cliff.




I think a similar pattern I described played out on the SPI today, funnily enough.


----------



## explod

joeyr46 said:


> The chart above shows overlapping waves and best count I can give it is A B C X A B now needs another low for C probably around $600 or so and then it might be time for a rally or if deflation really takes hold could go a lot lower imo
> Also most of you seem bullish which is not good for a rally of any size
> am not trying to say you are wrong just that when most people think something is going one way it usually goes the other




What you say seems to follow the paper market place itself.   The following excerpt from Don Denarchi.


> Technically, you could not get a more classic definition of a washout which is exhausting itself as both shrinking volume and collapsing open interest signal that this is NOT the beginning of a bear trend but rather a technical washout that is winding down. I especially like the fact that volume is so anemic – it indicates no particular enthusiasm for the downside but more of a general disgust type of trade. Every single technical analysis book that I have ever read over the years will tell the shorts to be very careful selling a market in which volume and open interest are falling off – you simply never know when the last long who is going to run has run – when they do, that is it and the shorts then lose since there is simply no one left to sell the market to. For now they are sitting pretty but I suspect many buyers are waiting in the wings and should this market move down to near the $730- $720 level in February, these will emerge and make their presence felt quite strongly. The risk/reward no longer favors the shorts at these levels. What do they have, maybe $60 on the downside at the absolute best?
> 
> Still, all things considered, even paper gold is holding very well compared to the carnage in the rest of the commodity markets. For instance, crude topped out near $150/ barrel. Today is dropped below $41. That is nearly a 73% price collapse. December corn hit $8.00 bushel this past summer. Today it broke below $3.00 – the first time in two years it has been below the $3.00 level. That is a price drop of 62%. Platinum peaked at over $2200/ounce earlier this year. Today it was trading at $790 – a drop of a “mere” 64%. Copper is 67% off its peak. Silver is down 56% off its best levels seen this year. Yet gold  is only down 27% off its peak price. Even with all the paper selling at the Comex, gold has withstood the orgy of redemption related selling pretty doggone well. And we know that demand for the real deal, the actual yellow metal is phenomenal, paper games at the Comex notwithstanding.





February to March next year after the new US Pres. gets in is my view of the big action upside.   Patience and a rest over the festive is the go for awhile.


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> What you say seems to follow the paper market place itself.   The following excerpt from Don Denarchi.
> 
> 
> 
> February to March next year after the new US Pres. gets in is my view of the big action upside.   Patience and a rest over the festive is the go for awhile.




The move doesn't look impulsive so volume should generally decrease and so should open interest only signal I ever saw from open interest was in trading range when it suddenly dropped or shot up and you could guarantee next move 
If it dropped next move of size would be up and vice versa BUT it must be a trading range and it was not a timing signal followed it for some time 
Usually if prices are going down open interest should decline as producers stop forward selling at lower prices but never managed to see when low would be as it is relative not definitive and conversely if the uptrend is strong open interest should rise as more producers lock in higher prices and commercials lock in today's prices before it rises too much Have seen a lot of other things written about open interest but most got it wrong an not tradeable (for me at any rate)


----------



## explod

"The Privateer" newsletter. written up by a brilliant independent economist has over the last few years given me great peace of mind and he is always spot on.

End of his Sat night gold report



> In mid (northern) summer, we had a new entry on the table for the first time since Gold topped the $US 1000 level in March. On July 17, Gold rose to 103233 Yen. That was a new 2008 high for the metal in terms of the Japanese currency. Then the Fannie/Freddie bailout plan went to work. Three weeks ago, on October 8, with the announcement of co-ordinated interest rate cuts by SIX major world central banks (including the Fed), Gold hit new all time highs in terms of the Australian Dollar, the Euro and many other major world currencies. That situation was reversed with the onset of savage global deleveraging which is still going on. How much longer? Watch the US Dollar exchange rates. And watch US Treasury yields.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

The attached is of interest and I would say particularly to the cycle analysts. 

It does seem to tell a story

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/flash_cycle.html

Bankit


----------



## mazzatelli1000

Whiskers said:


> Hi mazzatelli. I'm pretty new to EW too.
> 
> Maybe I should have labled (1) as (a) and (2) as (b), as I am anticipating (for lack of other realistically foreseeable alternatives) an Expanded Flat for wave *3*, consequently making the larger cycle a Diagonal Triangle where wave *4* would retrace most if not all of my anticaped wave *3* by late 2009 or 2010.
> 
> Of course, as I mentioned, if the latest low is a fifth wave down, we must be in the corrective abc now and ultimately headed lower still towards (I think roughly) mid 400's. I just can't imagine any circumstamce where that might happen, yet.
> 
> So, assuming that count isn't right it seems we're pretty much left with an Expanded Flat leading off the next leg *3*... unless someone can enlighten us to another count alternative... or the ar*e falling right out of gold too in the near future.




Just goes to show that EW may not be for me
By applying counts I am forming a bias about what I want to see rather than what is on the chart. 

Ahhh well, I would like your projections to happen...but the forecast deflation as mentioned by others might not let that come into fruitation


----------



## amory

Elliott Wave ... especially after completion of wave-5 ... offers any number of alternatives.  inevitably, one of them will come to fruition & in hindsight, will look convincing & plausible.  but only in hindsight.

don't know about gold, but certainly that's where the Dow & the XAO are now.  hence the directionless uncertainty all over the place during the last week.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

Following on from my posts of 22nd and 26th November about backwardation in gold, the following link *RED ALERT: GOLD BACKWARDATION* again emphasises the importance of this event.

I hope the information starts to sink in because we will not be warned by the mainstream media of the consequences, that is for sure.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/fekete120508.html


----------



## joeyr46

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Just goes to show that EW may not be for me
> By applying counts I am forming a bias about what I want to see rather than what is on the chart.
> 
> Ahhh well, I would like your projections to happen...but the forecast deflation as mentioned by others might not let that come into fruitation




Keep at it we all get it wrong or the alternate count happens but when it lines up and your right you can se were to place stops and how far the wave is likely to carry. I still see things with my personal bias but EW lets me know quickly when I'm wrong usually. and unfortunately there often several ways to count it as it is happening particularly if it is a corrective move But its like when you hit a golf ball right when you do get it right


----------



## joeyr46

joeyr46 said:


> Keep at it we all get it wrong or the alternate count happens but when it lines up and your right you can se were to place stops and how far the wave is likely to carry. I still see things with my personal bias but EW lets me know quickly when I'm wrong usually. and unfortunately there often several ways to count it as it is happening particularly if it is a corrective move But its like when you hit a golf ball right when you do get it right




I don't do that very often either


----------



## Temjin

Anyone seen this EW Gold Update?

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1227596760.php



> Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
> Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
> Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
> Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
> Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)




Of course, his wave counts could be wrong, but I couldn't imagine a world with gold price at $10k/oz. I'd rather not have that to happen because the world would be in a depressing state by then.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Anyone seen this EW Gold Update?
> 
> http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1227596760.php
> 
> 
> 
> Of course, his wave counts could be wrong, but I couldn't imagine a world with gold price at $10k/oz. I'd rather not have that to happen because the world would be in a depressing state by then.




If Zimbabwe can mint 5 billion dollar notes who knows.   Just depends how much substance/value is behind the instrument buying the ounce of gold I believe.


----------



## amory

unbelievable the amount of garbage being spewed out by way of scientific/well informed/technical POG projection!  Not I hasten to add by any of the posters on this forum ... no I'm talking about the socalled experts ... on the one hand predicting gold to $10K, on the other collapse of gold along with other metals/commodities/minerals, the POG to scrape 600.

the only way to keep ones sanity in this environment is to watch carefully what the USdollar is doing (not too badly at the moment) and what shape the Flight into Security is taking ... mainly into Treasuries, gold taking a very cramped back seat.

how long for is anyone's guess, but until something does happen I would just as soon wait & see.  one risk that is virtually non-existent:  to be caught unawares ... there will be plenty of time to get in (or out) when the time comes.  like with all forms of investment ... not necessarily at the precise top or bottom, but safely with an evolving trend ... notoriously absent in the POG at this precise point in time.

just my personal opinion FWIW


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.

Bankit


----------



## Sean K

bankit said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.
> 
> Bankit



Looks like NCMs last few months too. Interesting juncture.


----------



## Temjin

Another interesting article from Conard.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices?source=article_sb_popular

This is a VERY GOOD READ. But I'm looking for a counter argument against his analysis.


----------



## explod

Temjin said:


> Another interesting article from Conard.
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices?source=article_sb_popular
> 
> This is a VERY GOOD READ. But I'm looking for a counter argument against his analysis.




This article sums up some of the matters that the economists I have followed of the last few years have been aware of.

A must read, copy and pass round.   Well spotted Temjin


----------



## Trembling Hand

Funny how naked ........... whatever is always blamed by the people in love with their own ideas for falls/manipulation. Was a very interesting experiment when shorting was banned on the ASX and we tanked some 30%.

No futures contract in the world in any instrument, commodities, FX, Equity, weather is actually backed by supply. They are a price discovery and hedging product.

GOLD BUGS GET OVER IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or start complaining about how the weather is manipulated by the naked insurance shorts :


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Funny how naked ........... whatever is always blamed by the people in love with their own ideas for falls/manipulation. Was a very interesting experiment when shorting was banned on the ASX and we tanked some 30%.
> 
> No futures contract in the world in any instrument, commodities, FX, Equity, weather is actually backed by supply. They are a price discovery and hedging product.
> 
> GOLD BUGS GET OVER IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or start complaining about how the weather is manipulated by the naked insurance shorts :




Maybe the short of rain round here wots killing the hedge.  

One day you will take all the credit for promoting gold T H, cant wait till about March 09.

Then maybe you have a point, good technical analysis is based on the past.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> One day you will take all the credit for promoting gold T H, cant wait till about March 09.




LOL, as usual willing to take a "Guru's" facts as gospel although they are without exception WRONG. I don't give a toss whether it goes to $300 or $3000 explod but if someone REPEATEDLY states something that is wrong I will repeatedly point it out.



Just LOL!!


----------



## cuttlefish

NCM and LGL both looking interesting lately.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL, as usual willing to take a "Guru's" facts as gospel although they are without exception WRONG. I don't give a toss whether it goes to $300 or $3000 explod but if someone REPEATEDLY states something that is wrong I will repeatedly point it out.
> 
> 
> 
> Just LOL!!




And respect that.   I just do not see where it is fundamentally wrong.  Though he qualifies, that it is just his view, and that is my stance.    But you uneqivically (can you spell that for me) say WRONG.   I would appreciate some qualification.   There are shades of grey i think,  and sure as hell prefer to hold gold than US T Bonds which are near zero yield, anyway we shall see.

cheers explod


----------



## Trembling Hand

What I am referring to is this conspiracy of the open interest is larger than the holding of gold. Or that there is more contracts than deliverable gold.

Its not a conspiracy. That's how futs work. They are not backed by physical or they don't have to be.

For example yesterday the open interest on the SPI increased by 5000 contracts. That was not followed by the issuing of some extra $450 mil of shares? The open interest in a fut has nothing to do with the underlying asset. Obviously the larger the asset the larger the open interest will be but there is no need for a direct link like the Gold bug guru's keep using as evidence of manipulation.

Its just mischievous at best or as I see it down right misleading and dangerous "information".

As for the actual direction of gold to me its still in a nasty down-trend. That's all I know


----------



## Whiskers

bankit said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.
> 
> Bankit




'A break above the green line and we are off'... after extending my ESP and 'L' plate EW last night, I'm also still leaning to the northern trajectory in the short to med term... but if my count is right, or at least partly right, the little diag triangle suggests a max of 871 for leg v of 1. 

But that would be ok... wave 2 retrace a little before 3 attacks the high again.


----------



## rub92me

Looks like it's trying to break out chartwise. Knocked back once; a 'bad economic news day' in the US today may push it over the line.


----------



## hotbmw

i saw this question in an old thread that no one answered. i have the same question. your opinions please guys:

Hi, i'm fairly new to this stuff (and new to this forum ) but after doing a bit of reading (namely crash proof by Peter Schiff, http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course and various other web sources) I subscribe to the view that the USD is in serious trouble in the not too distant future will crash under the U.S. debt burden and the actions of the fed. As a result I have become interested in gold as an investment.

Say, after a short period of deflation, high inflation and possibly hyperinflation takes hold in the US. US citizens would no doubt be climbing over each other to get their hands on physical gold in an effort to preserve their wealth causing the price of gold to sky rocket. However, at the same time the rapidly weakening USD would depreciate substantially against the AUD. So while gold is increasing in USD, USD are worth less in Australian dollars.

So my question is this - assuming the above scenario does in fact happen would an Australian that was already holding gold realise a good return on their investment or would the weakness of the USD in terms of the AUD essentially wipe out any gains?

I assume that if the price of gold is rising in real terms its gains will outweigh any currency risk ie the nominal rise in gold in the US will outweigh the decline in the USD making it a worthwhile investment for Australians. Is this the case or am I completely off base? Hopefully I explained it ok.

I'd appreciate the thoughts and comment of those that are wiser and more knowledgeable than myself

Thank You!


----------



## Sean K

Could POG just have made a higher low bouncing off the $750/60 ish support zone?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kennas said:


> Could POG just have made a higher low bouncing off the $750/60 ish support zone?




Its still in that down trend. You would like it to break that first then make a Higher low on a retracement.

But will give it to the Bugs....... interesting point in time for POG. :robot2:


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Its still in that down trend. You would like it to break that first then make a Higher low on a retracement.
> 
> But will give it to the Bugs....... interesting point in time for POG. :robot2:




Gold needs a close above US$830 before we can get too excited.  Bullish signs are the rise of the HUI index in the last week or so.  The US dollar index is sitting on support as we speak, a drop of a half percent in the next day or so will also be bullish for gold.   The Dow rose this morning, for some time the Comex and the Dow have been in tandem.  If you look at the daily chart for the Dow the last few days are candle tails up which often precipitates a fall.  This on recent performance will bring the gold price down too.

Still say our big day in the sunshine will not happen till March next year.

Intersting days indeed.
 Cheers explod


----------



## bankit

Hi Kennas,

I find that when we have a genuine move coming up in Spot Gold, gold stocks move up higher with increased volume prior to a move in Spot gold and this is evidenced in the update of yesterdays close in the XGD chart below.


Bankit.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

This is a link all those interested in the December COMEX gold shenanigans should have bookmarked...

http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/category/silver-gold/vaporize-comex-countdown/

A sample:


----------



## Temjin

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> This is a link all those interested in the December COMEX gold shenanigans should have bookmarked...
> 
> http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/category/silver-gold/vaporize-comex-countdown/
> 
> A sample:




Yeah, have been following it since day one. But I highly doubt COMEX will default anytime soon. Ted Butler and Casey have both indicated that it will not default unless there is a sudden increase in delivery demand from the long people. This wouldn't happen unless something extraordinary happen in the real world or some miracle organised event.


----------



## sinner

Hi Temjin,

I am certainly not proposing this will go one way or another. Just a good link for people who are interested to follow.

COMEX default definitely leans on the conspiracy goldbug fringe side of things.

Think it started with Max Keiser (who is definitely on that side of the line, appearing in interviews with noted nutter Alex Jones etc). 

He at least provided a semi-reasonable possible explanation that those fed up with perceived gold price manipulation in the futures market (I think he specifically mentions pissed off Russians) would be making a highly leveraged play (i.e. everything they could throw) and asking for as soon as possible delivery.

As mentioned I have adopted a wait and see attitude mostly because my play on the market should pretty much be unaffected if it turns out wrong. But even Mish said he hopes it happens!

However, the fact that a COMEX default is even possible raises some interesting food for thought and discussion. It is my understanding that Barrick gold is in a similar position, attempting a $1bn capital raising venture or possible financing (I can't recall exactly) very recently as well as the recent natural disaster at one of their producers can't be good for the traditional COMEX bullion banks and their cronies.



> We will soon know if there is a failure to deliver in December gold. I actually hope there will be!



http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/no-fever-like-gold-fever-response.html

Landslide 
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-12-06-papua-new-guinea-landslide_N.htm

Barrick "We're the world largest, can we have $1bn please?"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=avZfyIi72iK4&refer=canada


----------



## Temjin

sinner said:


> Hi Temjin,
> 
> I am certainly not proposing this will go one way or another. Just a good link for people who are interested to follow.
> 
> COMEX default definitely leans on the conspiracy goldbug fringe side of things.
> 
> Think it started with Max Keiser (who is definitely on that side of the line, appearing in interviews with noted nutter Alex Jones etc).
> 
> He at least provided a semi-reasonable possible explanation that those fed up with perceived gold price manipulation in the futures market (I think he specifically mentions pissed off Russians) would be making a highly leveraged play (i.e. everything they could throw) and asking for as soon as possible delivery.
> 
> As mentioned I have adopted a wait and see attitude mostly because my play on the market should pretty much be unaffected if it turns out wrong. But even Mish said he hopes it happens!
> 
> However, the fact that a COMEX default is even possible raises some interesting food for thought and discussion. It is my understanding that Barrick gold is in a similar position, attempting a $1bn capital raising venture or possible financing (I can't recall exactly) very recently as well as the recent natural disaster at one of their producers can't be good for the traditional COMEX bullion banks and their cronies.
> 
> 
> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/no-fever-like-gold-fever-response.html
> 
> Landslide
> http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-12-06-papua-new-guinea-landslide_N.htm
> 
> Barrick "We're the world largest, can we have $1bn please?"
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=avZfyIi72iK4&refer=canada




Interestingly, the Chinese government is also pissed off with the while how the US dollar is doing at the moment. They aren't stupid and certainly not stupid enough to announce their intentions publicy. They will be accumulating gold over time to diversify away from the USD Foreign Reserve holdings but in a way that would maximise their "return". 

Comex have defaulted on nickel before, so there are no reasons why it wouldn't on gold if it comes to that. So I agree with the "wait and see what happens". But I am in the position to profit if they do default but doesn't hurt if they don't. Either way, it's not my main focus in the grand scheme of things anyway. (to me that is hehe)


----------



## GumbyLearner

Temjin said:


> Interestingly, the Chinese government is also pissed off with the while how the US dollar is doing at the moment. They aren't stupid and certainly not stupid enough to announce their intentions publicy. They will be accumulating gold over time to diversify away from the USD Foreign Reserve holdings but in a way that would maximise their "return".





Well heres a new announcement from China today, Temjin.

Interesting indeed

*China to increase money supply in 2009* 

China said it wants to increase money supply by 17 percent in 2009 as part of new measures to keep the world's fourth-largest economy ticking over in the face of the global slowdown.

http://news.theage.com.au/world/china-to-increase-money-supply-in-2009-20081214-6y7c.html


----------



## cuttlefish

Nice action occurring lately in gold stocks.   LGL, NCM and XGD have all made good breaks through the downtrend resistance line.  

A few juniors starting to show some good moves as well on a combination of news and renewed interest in the gold sector.


If gold manages to get a run going it looks like the gold stocks will go along with it this time - they seem to be leading the gold price a bit at the moment.


----------



## joeyr46

Bankit
This is the same chart as yours but on a log scale be interesting to see which way it goes. If the log chart trendline stops it or not but not sure if volume is very encouraging yet although LGL has certainly broken it's downtrend line on bothnormal and log charts


----------



## sinner

Slightly longer term look (log chart), very consistent indicators on this one. If you had bought on break up through S and E 200 day MA and sold on break down following this chart you would be sitting pretty!

Worth watching this chart for the next few days/weeks, looks like we are approaching the break through area very rapidly with support signals from the MACD.

But we are not there yet, and slow stochastics seem to be playing a different game. (although if you examine a sustained peak in slow stochastic at beginning of 2002, we might see a repitition so this indicator is not nescessarily bearish).


----------



## bankit

joeyr46 said:


> Bankit
> This is the same chart as yours but on a log scale be interesting to see which way it goes. If the log chart trendline stops it or not but not sure if volume is very encouraging yet although LGL has certainly broken it's downtrend line on bothnormal and log charts




Hi Joey,

I think we have a pretty good chance of seeing a good run in gold. In the past couple of months we have seen some great moves in our major producers with moves in excess of 70% in some stocks like SGX, NCM, BDG, LGL and DOM.

Bankit


----------



## aleckara

Well as of today Gold per ounce is worth more than platinum. People are very bullish on gold at the moment questioning the financial system and its integrity most probably.

Wonder how long it will stay this way.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Must be time again to short gold. 

Lets call it short at 857 stop at 867.


----------



## aleckara

Trembling Hand said:


> Must be time again to short gold.
> 
> Lets call it short at 857 stop at 867.




Well assuming the world doesn't crash down and GM, Ford and whoever don't go into bankrupcy then this would be the best thing. I would join you TH if America had its act a little together which they don't.

The stop is there at least if you are game.

Maybe its a leading indicator of the US dollar going down rather than anything else.


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:
			
		

> Must be time again to short gold.
> 
> Lets call it short at 857 stop at 867.




TH - what is your view on this whole backwardation topic?

Let me play devils advocate and parrot the current view going around - people like yourself are shorting gold via futures contracts - but none of you actually have gold to deliver if a delivery call is made. What if there are calls for delivery and nobody, or very few, who are interested in selling you back the 'pretend' gold you sold?     

And this is supposedly the reason for the backwardation - people want physical gold but don't trust that they will be able to acquire actual physical via the futures market and will be cash settled instead.

So this is the current line being peddled by the gold bug ('nutters'?) ... just curious on your thoughts on this.


----------



## explod

> Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman will know that Bernanke's long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of the position of most prior chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of F D Roosevelt's gold revaluation/dollar devaluation back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again."
> 
> It is only a matter of time before gold is allowed to rise to its natural level. Assuming that about one half of the recent increase in Federal Reserve credit is neutralized, the monetized value of gold should be allowed to rise to between $7,500 and $9,000 per ounce as the world goes back to some type of a gold standard. In the nearer term, gold will rise to about $2,000 per ounce as the Fed abandons its hopeless campaign to support Comex short sellers in favor of saving the other, more productive, functions of various banks and insurers.
> 
> Revaluation of gold, and a return to a gold standard, is the only way that hyperinflation can be avoided while large numbers of paper currency units are released into the economy. This is because most of the rise in prices can be filtered into gold. As the asset value of gold rises, it will soak up excess dollars, euros, pounds, etc, while the appearance of an increased number of currency units will stimulate investor psychology; and lending and economic output will increase all over the world. Ben Bernanke and the other members of the FOMC Committee must know this, because it is basic economics.




From the Asia Times today, well worth checking out IMVHO

Opening paragraphs answer a lot of questions on backwardation also.

Article titled "Gold fever sets in" by Ankel Fekete


----------



## cuttlefish

Re: my post two above  - I should probably have added ... once you've managed to settle down from the full belly laugh ... please enlighten us on your thoughts on this.


----------



## Glen48

Peter Schiff in his book Crash Proof is quoting it could reach $36,000.00 an Oz


----------



## aleckara

you would think though that if this ever was the case then platinum and silver would follow it. platinum is affected by short term concerns and once those are over (i.e cars not being produced/them saved). It might be worth doing a pair trade on these metals if you had the guts that is.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> What if there are calls for delivery and nobody, or very few, who are interested in selling you back the 'pretend' gold you sold?




What if the long fut were asked to take delivery?


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> What if the long fut were asked to take delivery?





They can cash settle, there's plenty of cash in the world available to use in settlement, then if they don't want the gold they've taken delivery of they can sell it on the spot market.

(and if the counterparty is unable to settle due to solvency issues I'm assuming there's an exchange fund similar to the ASX's fund to cover failed settlements to maintain an orderly market while the exchange pursues the party for the settlement funds).

And I'm assuming in the case of inability to deliver physical gold they'll come up with some sort of substitute cash settlement figure - but wouldn't it kind of defeat the actual  pupose of the exchange if both long and short positions are always cash settled?


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> They can cash settle,




shall I say any more.


----------



## chops_a_must

Trembling Hand said:


> shall I say any more.




Gold miners use it for their delivery prices though...

Can't imagine them taking out hedges in a market that doesn't allow delivery.


----------



## cuttlefish

explod said:


> From the Asia Times today, well worth checking out IMVHO
> 
> Opening paragraphs answer a lot of questions on backwardation also.
> 
> Article titled "Gold fever sets in" by Ankel Fekete





cheers explod - interesting article - I'd seen part of it reproduced in another column, but not read all of it.


----------



## ned_beaty

If anyone's interested I found this web site on the Comex inventory.

http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/2008/12/16/vaporize-comex-2008-12-16/


----------



## sinner

cuttlefish said:


> cheers explod - interesting article - I'd seen part of it reproduced in another column, but not read all of it.




Also worth reading this and the exchange that spurred it

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/no-fever-like-gold-fever-response.html


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> 'A break above the green line and we are off'... after extending my ESP and 'L' plate EW last night, I'm also still leaning to the northern trajectory in the short to med term... but if my count is right, or at least partly right, the little diag triangle suggests a max of 871 for leg v of 1.
> 
> But that would be ok... wave 2 retrace a little before 3 attacks the high again.




Well, so far it's pulled up a couple of bucks short of the max of 871.75... and I'm getting sell signals everywhere.

Could be back to the 770's for wave 2 pretty smartly.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

Back in my post #5864 of 28th November I expected gold to reach $855/860 before turning down. Instead it was the first resistance at $835 that it reacted to and then it retraced 61.8% of the range WX shown in the chart below. It was a stronger pullback than I expected but we still have had a good increase since then.

Where we are at the moment is a strong resistance level for the following reasons:

* Range AB = CD
* Range WX = YD
* The trendline across the highs could also be resistance
* Last night was 8 days up from the low at Y

Now if gold is in a high momentum move then we need to see the previous high at X ($834) becoming support. Should gold move below that critical level then it is in a much weaker position.

Bankit


----------



## sinner

Gold miners getting losing a lot of ground they made up in the last two days right now! I  guess the bet was low AUD high POG high USD. Now looks like maybe higher AUD is pushing AUPOG down much closer to cost of production for some miners.


----------



## MRC & Co

Gold doing well lately.  I'm surprised.

Looks like the fall of the USD has some thinking where next to place their hard earned mulla, writing off the worry of deflation.  

Heard gold being talked about for the first time today as a longer-term long, amongst a serious group of traders.  

A few idle thoughts.


----------



## chops_a_must

Like I've said elsewhere here MRC, inflation although obviously eventually a concern, in the short term, gold is purely a currency destruction play... and that is it really...


----------



## MRC & Co

chops_a_must said:


> Like I've said elsewhere here MRC, inflation although obviously eventually a concern, in the short term, gold is purely a currency destruction play... and that is it really...




Yes, but with it's recent declines, and the rise of the USD, it was obviously being viewed, by the movers and shakers, as too risky due to the risk of deflation.

Now perhaps, sentiment is changing to a purely currency destruction play, exactly the debate amongst these traders, who ultimately, are the kind of guys who decide whether or not gold will break back above it's highs anytime soon.  

Should be good to watch play out.  It's definately back on my radar now, especially if it can form an uptrend (form a HH and HL).


----------



## chops_a_must

Yes, I think that is where the fundamental debate should be centred. The inflation debate is well and truly dead and buried for now.

And yes... I'm especially interested as I have calls at 88 on GLD ~ USD gold at 880, due to expire tomorrow.

Should be fun to see play out.


----------



## explod

> Since the summer we have experienced a sharp rise in demand for certain gold products. The one-kilo bar has become very popular," said Fiorenzo Arbini, in charge of health and safety at Pamp, another large Swiss refiner.
> 
> "People used to buy certificates, now they want physical gold."
> 
> Schnellmann said the Argor-Heraeus smelter is operating at full capacity, three eight-hour shifts a day. Conquering the backlog by hiring is difficult, because each candidate has to undergo a security check.
> 
> Gold refiners were established in Switzerland to supply the watch industry and, later, jewellery-makers in Italy.
> 
> Switzerland's largest banks stepped in to replace a void in gold trading while the London gold market was shut after World War Two and again during a brief closure in 1968.
> 
> The former Soviet Union, another top gold producer, chose Zurich banks to handle most of its gold sales in the 1970s and 1980s.
> 
> "Gold has an image of being the asset of last resort. This could be viewed as old-fashioned but this is how enough people with enough money to matter think," said Stephen Briggs, a metals strategist at RBS Global Banking & Markets.




Full article currently heads the Kitco site.


----------



## cuttlefish

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, but with it's recent declines, and the rise of the USD, it was obviously being viewed, by the movers and shakers, as too risky due to the risk of deflation.
> 
> Now perhaps, sentiment is changing to a purely currency destruction play, exactly the debate amongst these traders, who ultimately, are the kind of guys who decide whether or not gold will break back above it's highs anytime soon.
> 
> Should be good to watch play out.  It's definately back on my radar now, especially if it can form an uptrend (form a HH and HL).





Currency destruction and inflation go hand in hand.

Are these guys holding physical gold or trading futures contracts?


----------



## cuttlefish

All hypothetical of course, but ...

If the USD gets decimated, what will happen to the AUD?  My view is that it will be decimated alongside it.

A decimated currency means it doesn't buy much - ipso facto the price of goods in that currency will rise.

Profits made in that currency will have less purchasing power.

Start with a small slump in the currency and extrapolate to full decimation and see where you end up if holding a gold futures contract.  

You might even find the backwardation actually increases so dramatically that there isn't even a paper profit.

I'm happily holding physical gold and producers of the real thing.

All hypothetical ... *if* there was a currency decimation.

Its easy to be a trillionaire in Zimbabwe.   You can cash settle contracts made in Zimbabwe dollars very easily.   You'd think twice about supplying the real thing though.  Actually you probably wouldn't supply the real thing in exchange for Zimbabwe dollars.

But we're no where near Zimbabwe yet - main purpose is to illustrate a point.


(value <> price)


----------



## chops_a_must

The problem with the hypothesis Cuttle, is that the currency being destroyed is the one of the nation that holds a whole heap of the world's wealth... and produces, or at least, still owns the production of most of the world.

I would imagine our currency and other 'unencumbered' currencies would experience a massive short, sharp run on our currency as it is transferred into to AUD to then buy hard assets.

And in that case, we may experience some enormous inflations in everything here.


But hey... we've never been here before... so who knows?


----------



## cuttlefish

chops_a_must said:


> The problem with the hypothesis Cuttle, is that the currency being destroyed is the one of the nation that holds a whole heap of the world's wealth... and produces, or at least, still owns the production of most of the world.
> 
> I would imagine our currency and other 'unencumbered' currencies would experience a massive short, sharp run on our currency as it is transferred into to AUD to then buy hard assets.
> 
> And in that case, we may experience some enormous inflations in everything here.
> 
> 
> But hey... we've never been here before... so who knows?




Wait up - firstly - what wealth do they have that other countries don't. Secondly - they have a lot of debt alongside it.

If I own a $20 million home but owe $19.9 million I'm not wealthy, I just convinced some clown to lend me a bucketload of money.

In relation to productivity - measurement of it is very dependant on the currency its measured in.  Are ten chinese factory workers on $US 1/hour (probably less)  producing less than 1 US factory worker on $US 20.hour?


----------



## chops_a_must

cuttlefish said:


> In relation to productivity - measurement of it is very dependant on the currency its measured in.  Are ten chinese factory workers on $US 1/hour (probably less)  producing less than 1 US factory worker on $US 20.hour?



My point was that although most of the world's production and wealth generating capacity is not in the US, it is still owned by the US.


----------



## cuttlefish

chops_a_must said:


> My point was that although most of the world's production and wealth generating capacity is not in the US, it is still owned by the US.





If that is the case, then the US currency should in theory continue to remain strong - but is it true?  What non-US based wealth generating assets does the US own?


----------



## chops_a_must

cuttlefish said:


> If that is the case, then the US currency should in theory continue to remain strong - but is it true?  What non-US based wealth generating assets does the US own?



Funnily enough, the autos.

They make money everywhere else but the US. 

MacDonalds, Coke... heaps.


----------



## cuttlefish

chops_a_must said:


> Funnily enough, the autos.
> 
> They make money everywhere else but the US.
> 
> MacDonalds, Coke... heaps.




! Ok thats an interesting observation.

I'm typing on a Dell, running Windows,  I probably ate Weetbix for breakfast,  I didn't eat macca's for lunch but thought about KFC for dinner, I watched 2.5 men earlier, I checked how my eBay auction was going, I drank a bottle of Coke, I checked the DOW futures on CNN,  I've had Frasier and Sienfeld re-runs on TV in the background  ... but I can't think of anything that the US does that is productive. 

(part fiction part fact but does kind of highlight the pervasiveness of US products).

Worth considering - thanks.


----------



## chops_a_must

And that;s the thing. 

They haven't until recently, started bringing money back into USD where they had the moratorium on tax... I think...

They just reinvest foreignly earned money, overseas.

And I agree, none of it is productive.


----------



## cuttlefish

chops_a_must said:


> And I agree, none of it is productive.




lol.

I think I'll sleep on this.  Hopefully gold manages to bust through your 880 level tonight in spite of this revelation.  Its something I've pondered before - particularly software and entertainment -  but I never considered the food angle ... I guess there's also durries too (Marlborough) ... and Jim Beam and Jack Daniels .... geez no wonder the worlds gone to sh*te!


----------



## sinner

Worth a read (not a goldbug)

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12106.htm

Inverse is probably true for USD, take note USD shorters!


----------



## bankit

MRC & Co said:


> Now perhaps, sentiment is changing to a purely currency destruction play.




Hi MRC,

I feel the ultimate demise of the USD is only one of the driving forces behind the move up in gold. For myself I have purchased gold stocks (only producers who are unhedged) as a hedge against later inflation as well, which is bound to be a major factor further down the track.

Bankit


----------



## MRC & Co

cuttlefish said:


> Currency destruction and inflation go hand in hand.
> 
> Are these guys holding physical gold or trading futures contracts?




I said deflation, not inflation.  Futures.

Bankit, could be further inflation, but until that time, I wouldn't bet on it personally.


----------



## cuttlefish

MRC & Co said:


> I said deflation, not inflation.  Futures.
> 
> Bankit, could be further inflation, but until that time, I wouldn't bet on it personally.





Yeah I realised that.  My point was that if you have a deflationary viewpoint,  I don't see how you reconcile that with a currency destruction viewpoint - to me currency destruction cannot occur without inflation occurring directly alongside it.


----------



## MRC & Co

cuttlefish said:


> Yeah I realised that.  My point was that if you have a deflationary viewpoint,  I don't see how you reconcile that with a currency destruction viewpoint - to me currency destruction cannot occur without inflation occurring directly alongside it.




Ah k.  I get you.

Yes, my version of currency destruction, is a complete blowup of the financial system as we know it.  Or at least,_ fear_ that may happen........


----------



## cuttlefish

MRC & Co said:


> Ah k.  I get you.
> 
> Yes, my version of currency destruction, is a complete blowup of the financial system as we know it.  Or at least,_ fear_ that may happen........




cheers thats makes your standpoint clearer.

The fear may be irrational but I'd agree that at the moment it is what is driving the gold market as opposed to any actual events, because we have not yet seen currency destruction, hyperinflation or systemic failure.   

Whether any of this ever occurs or not, the people that are acting on this fear and making moves to protect assets, are starting to do so via the physical gold market - on the basis that if this failure does occur a futures contract or any other document involving currency backing, will be worth the paper its written on.

It'll be interesting to see whether the current hype about a decoupling between the physical and paper market is real or just a beatup.  There's probably a shortage of demand for small oz bars and coins but thats just retail investor demand and probably not a true measure of what is going on in the physical gold market.

If the physical decoupling is real though, I see gold stocks as a good way to still get a leveraged entry to physical gold, because they do actually produce the real thing.  They might present better leverage than futures especially if this backwardation situation continues to get amplified.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, some good points cuttle.

To be honest, I'm not really concerned with details anymore, I will leave that for the analysts.  If I can get long and make a few bucks off it, I'm happy.


----------



## chops_a_must

cuttlefish said:


> It'll be interesting to see whether the current hype about a decoupling between the physical and paper market is real or just a beatup.  There's probably a shortage of demand for small oz bars and coins but thats just retail investor demand and probably not a true measure of what is going on in the physical gold market.



Mate... the Perth Mint completely stopped the delivery of a lot of products until the end of January.

As far as I know, that's _not_ the small stuff, but the big end stuff.


----------



## bankit

cuttlefish said:


> If the physical decoupling is real though, I see gold stocks as a good way to still get a leveraged entry to physical gold, because they do actually produce the real thing. They might present better leverage than futures especially if this backwardation situation continues to get amplified.





Hi Cuttlefish,

That is what I am banking on, investing in unhedged gold producer stocks. Not explorerers or developers but *unhedged gold producers*. As gold moves up the leverage becomes the icing on the cake. Sure there can be currency concerns but we can not avoid that. 

Just in case some readers have not thought about the leverage issue. As an example, let's say a producer whose cost is USD500 an oz, then currently they are making a profit of USD338 an oz. If the price of gold goes to USD1680 then their profit (with all things being equal) is USD1180 or an increase of 250% when the price of gold has only doubled. So the share price should move up in much the same manner.

Bankit


----------



## So_Cynical

bankit said:


> So the share price should move up in much the same manner.




That's what i thought to....however the last 18 months has proved that to not be so.

March 08 was the record high for gold but not for the producers, they all had there 
SP record highs well before....sentiment proved to be the all powerful SP driver.


----------



## chatty

bankit said:


> Hi Cuttlefish,
> 
> That is what I am banking on, investing in unhedged gold producer stocks. Not explorerers or developers but *unhedged gold producers*. As gold moves up the leverage becomes the icing on the cake. Sure there can be currency concerns but we can not avoid that.
> 
> Just in case some readers have not thought about the leverage issue. As an example, let's say a producer whose cost is USD500 an oz, then currently they are making a profit of USD338 an oz. If the price of gold goes to USD1680 then their profit (with all things being equal) is USD1180 or an increase of 250% when the price of gold has only doubled. So the share price should move up in much the same manner.
> 
> Bankit




Hi Bankit

I am holding LGL. How do I find out which company is an unhedged producer?  Can you suggest some names?

Thanks


----------



## GumbyLearner

Unhedged Producers

NCM (Aussie)
Newmont (USA)
Gold Fields (S.Africa)
Sino (Aussie)
Avoca (Aussie)
Kinross (Canada)
Yamana (Canada)
Harmony (S.Africa)
to a name a few...

The biggest producer in the world Barrick (Canada(formerly Homestake Mining)) trades as ABX on the NYSE is still hedged.

But you need to check out any copper contracts or associated metals produced by the individual companies...I hope this helps


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> That's what i thought to....however the last 18 months has proved that to not be so.
> 
> March 08 was the record high for gold but not for the producers, they all had there
> SP record highs well before....sentiment proved to be the all powerful SP driver.





Of course, but gold is about the same price today as it was 12 months ago whilst most other investments have fallen substantially.   Gradually insitutional investors are picking up this vibe which will change sentiment to the upside.  As I have been saying for 6 months now, gold will shine early in the new year, the stock markets will fall further and the sentiment to gold will shift substancially to the gold producers.   Charts as we look at them have shown a bottom turnaround on most of the Aussie gold stocks and volumes are rising.   look at the 12 month daily charts of SBM, AVO, LGL and GOLD


----------



## bankit

chatty said:


> Hi Bankit
> 
> I am holding LGL. How do I find out which company is an unhedged producer? Can you suggest some names?




Hi Chatty,

You need to go through the Company reports to find all those that are unhedged - there are some that have puts but this is not hedging.

You also need to keep in mind that you want *pure* gold producers not stocks that have, say, a significant proportion being copper or another mineral as this skews your objective.

Grumbylearner has started off with a good list. 

I concentrate on Australian stocks and apart from AVO,NCM and Sino from his list I can add:

DOM
IAU
LGL
SBM

Bankit


----------



## chatty

bankit said:


> Hi Chatty,
> 
> You need to go through the Company reports to find all those that are unhedged - there are some that have puts but this is not hedging.
> 
> You also need to keep in mind that you want *pure* gold producers not stocks that have, say, a significant proportion being copper or another mineral as this skews your objective.
> 
> Grumbylearner has started off with a good list.
> 
> I concentrate on Australian stocks and apart from AVO,NCM and Sino from his list I can add:
> 
> DOM
> IAU
> LGL
> SBM
> 
> Bankit




Thanks Bankit. This helps a lot


----------



## Sean K

chatty said:


> Hi Bankit
> 
> I am holding LGL. How do I find out which company is an unhedged producer?  Can you suggest some names?
> 
> Thanks



Here's an outdated list of gold stocks for you to peruse. For the producers, in the comments section I have stated whether they are hedged or not, for the most part.

Update their prices to see market caps and comparative value.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I've always bought physical gold.

I don't trust gold companies.

Look what happened to sons of gwalia.

Perth Mint I find are best.

Wrap it up before you bury it.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Wrap it up before you bury it.
> 
> gg



What do you wrap yours up in GG?

And where?

Cheers.


----------



## Ageo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've always bought physical gold.
> 
> I don't trust gold companies.
> 
> Look what happened to sons of gwalia.
> 
> Perth Mint I find are best.
> 
> Wrap it up before you bury it.
> 
> gg




Why is Perth the best? for price? delivery? purity? i actually dont like dealing with Perth as there prices are way too high. (but they have alot in stock so they can talk the price up).


----------



## Ageo

kennas said:


> What do you wrap yours up in GG?
> 
> And where?
> 
> Cheers.




A cloth of some sort is always good, and of course he means burying it in the ground


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

kennas said:


> What do you wrap yours up in GG?
> 
> And where?
> 
> Cheers.




I normally wrap it in free trials of tip sheets from Huntleys, The Intelligent Investor or The Eureka Report.

It keeps me grounded and anything I plant I like to surround with some s**t.

Next time I need my garden dug up I'll tell you where. 

I find Huntleys good for roses as well.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Ageo said:


> A cloth of some sort is always good, and of course he means burying it in the ground



Yes, and I want to know where?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

If I bury it in cloth, Garpaldog digs it up.

He won't go near Huntleys, Intelligent Investor or The Eureka Report.

He's smarter than most , is Garpaldog.

gg


----------



## noirua

Gold is probably a good gamble should those with paper gold demand delivery. Some think this may happen during 2009, thus US$1,500 an ounce may be closer than we think.


----------



## MRC & Co

Long AUD Gold today for a bit of a Christmas punt.  :chimney


----------



## sinner

It is my understanding that gold needs to close above 850 this month for the monthly chart to remain bullish. I would prefer an 855 on the monthly for Dec to confirm the bullish breakout of downward trend.

Working the nightshift tonight, I noticed gold rebounded nicely from the 830-840s region up to 850 in European trading and with an hour of shift to go I quickly checked the gold price to see it soared to 866 during the US session!

So Whiskers, since you were right on the last jump and following retracement down almost to the exact dollar, I will ask you very nicely for your opinion on this one!

I will be calling Aus Bullion on Monday to place my last order (just 1 oz at this damned AUD price!) for the year. I generally try and convert some portion of monthly earnings to gold regardless of price.


----------



## So_Cynical

bankit said:


> I concentrate on Australian stocks and apart from AVO,NCM and Sino from his list I can add:
> 
> DOM
> IAU
> LGL
> SBM
> 
> Bankit




TRY - Troy Resources

ASX listed, unhedged, debt free and producing....also 60+ mill in cash


----------



## tigerboi

*Re: Gold Price heading up up up*

soon you will be able to also buy gold from hillend gold...HEG,with the usa economy in a tailspin looks like gold is still the safe haven...my prediction is $1500 by june 2000...tb

Physical gold demand has increased dramatically over the past year with gold dealers and
mints unable to maintain supply, so Hill End Gold has decided to make a portion of its gold
production available to investors, with shareholders getting priority.
We are pleased to announce that preparations are underway to have gold investment bars of
various weights refined to 99.99% from Hill End gold, which will available for shareholders
and the public.
These gold investment bars will be stamped Hill End Gold and will be tradeable at near to
their gold value on the global gold bar market.
Recently the World Gold Council reported that demand for gold for the third quarter of 2008
was US$32 billion, which is 45% higher than the record set in the previous quarter, and retail
investment demand was up 121% to 7.5 million ounces, with strong bar and coin buying in
the Swiss, German, and U.S. markets.
At the same time the supply of physical gold gold has decreased 9.7% compared to the
same period last year with central banks reducing gold sales.
The details of the release of the Hill End gold 99.99% investment bars and the pricing​structure will be announced shortly when finalised.


----------



## Page

If see globally gold the precious metal is heading towards its high. But after the downfall in the market it has become range bound. As gold gets stabled. After that it will move towards it's high.


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> So Whiskers, since you were right on the last jump and following retracement down almost to the exact dollar, I will ask you very nicely for your opinion on this one!




Not sure exactly which one you are referring to there sinner, but I'll take the praise anyway. 

Actually the last leg v went a touch higher than I expected because it looked like it had to be a diag triangle forming, however my literature says a regular impulse can still overlap waves i and iv by a small amount especially in leveraged markets.

I'm thinking it's probably just made a minor b and will head south to complete the c to maybe the 770's, but if I had to put a number on it, let's say 786... before it kicks off leg 3 which I think will challenge the previous high of 1032. 

I'm still looking for a leg 5 to finish somewhere around 1,200 to 1,500 sometime in the next few months due to low worldwide interest rates, spending stimuluses and inflationary pressure that will rise again down the track.


----------



## chops_a_must

Credit where credit is due Whiskers, it was a good call. I hope you traded it in some format.

If you look at GOLD listed on the ASX, it gives a more obvious picture of what you are seeing there.

I put it in the potential break out thread some time back I think...


----------



## Rockon2

Gone Nucking Futs today,,, started from the break on Friday...


----------



## sinner

Yes of course you did chops, quite sorry for not spreading the credit, I do remember reading that and thinking along similar lines.

Thanks for the early morning update Rockon (I only just woke up : ).

My guess is the price for today has diverged from technical constraints and is trading strongly due to geopolitical instability Israel/Palestine and India/Pakistan issues.

Lovely effect it is having on the portfolio, RMS up 7+% and IAU up 12+% for the day so far.


----------



## Rockon2

Agree Sinner .. a bit of tech, and throw in recent Gaza strip probs,, and bingo


----------



## chops_a_must

I didn't want any credit Sinner. :

I was giving credit to Whiskers for the fade off resistance.


Convincing break through support today, and follow through. Breakout target upwards of 1500 AUD.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

It looks as though we are getting a good run out of gold/gold stocks at the moment. The Support area as indicated in post #5935 (in yellow) held well and as that support was at a high level the advance is continuing.

The next resistances areas are at $900, $917 and $971


Bankit


----------



## Rockon2

3 Gold picks atm....  ALD TRY TAM


----------



## explod

Taking into account the momentum of this move since early November my take is that US$900 will be breached easily.   My interest is in the area of $925 to 930.    A close above that level may on past practice in this bull-run  see a breach of the all time high.

Trading is light of course so a rise to loftier levels may not survive long after traders return to desks in January.

Fundamentally, politically and technically a real change in gold to the upside will not occur till early February to March, 09, IMHO.    Then the added impetus/or element of sentiment will come into play.   A realisation that other investment vehicles are losing value whilst gold, at the very least is holding its own.

Interesting times.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> *I'm thinking it's probably just made a minor b* and will head south to complete the c to maybe the 770's, but if I had to put a number on it, let's say 786... before it kicks off leg 3 which I think will challenge the previous high of 1032.




Just made a small adjustment. 

Sell signals still abound though.

I think minor 'b' is in now... looks like an Expanded Flat wave 2 rather than a zig zag, which opens up a possible low of 730's for a pretty sharp retracement to 2.

Atm still looking to retrace at least to 786.


----------



## michael_selway

Whiskers said:


> Just made a small adjustment.
> 
> Sell signals still abound though.
> 
> I think minor 'b' is in now... looks like an Expanded Flat wave 2 rather than a zig zag, which opens up a possible low of 730's for a pretty sharp retracement to 2.
> 
> Atm still looking to retrace at least to 786.




Well if this occurs, i will have to giveyou alof of credit 

thx

MS


----------



## Stormin_Norman

the MZM measure of money supply is interesting to note ( Money of zero maturity is equal to M2 less time deposits, plus all money market funds. )

and as we all know - inflation = demand for gold.


----------



## explod

In October the HUI collapsed with the Dow.  The HUI has now recovered the entire fall but the Dow from 11000 now sits at 8500 and generally making lower highs.    This is the change I have been looking for and should soon drive increased sentiment to gold and gold stocks.

Gold is looking more and more like the only show in town.  Up 6.7% for the year.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

the gold bulls look to future inflationary concerns in the coming year as the printing press at the fed start rolling to pay for the bailouts.

the gold bears look at current low inflationary figures coming out because of the massive money destruction and commodity price falls of the past year.


----------



## sinner

Stormin Norman, are you sure this is a safe line to draw? Inflationist = gold bull Deflationist = gold bear?

I see you posting a chart Mike Shedlock might approve of. But he is a deflationist who is not a gold bull! His view is that gold is (still and always) money and the only king in deflation is money.

His prediction is either everything but treasuries slumps or everything but treasuries and gold slumps.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

sinner said:


> Stormin Norman, are you sure this is a safe line to draw? Inflationist = gold bull Deflationist = gold bear?
> 
> I see you posting a chart Mike Shedlock might approve of. But he is a deflationist who is not a gold bull! His view is that gold is (still and always) money and the only king in deflation is money.
> 
> His prediction is either everything but treasuries slumps or everything but treasuries and gold slumps.




can you expand your point? im not sure who mike shedlock is nor his views or what his logic behind them is.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Stormin_Norman said:


> the gold bulls look to future inflationary concerns in the coming year as the printing press at the fed start rolling to pay for the bailouts.
> 
> the gold bears look at current low inflationary figures coming out because of the massive money destruction and commodity price falls of the past year.




Inflation will be the final consequence of worldwide increased money supply!


----------



## Stormin_Norman

after current levels of overstocked inventory are sold off at a discounted rates the downward pressure on consumer prices will ease too.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Stormin_Norman said:


> after current levels of overstocked inventory are sold off at a discounted rates the downward pressure on consumer prices will ease too.




Agreed SN

Vintage pro-inflation propaganda


----------



## explod

> the gold bears look at current low inflationary figures coming out because of the massive money destruction and commodity price falls of the past year.




Gold is not part of the commodity scene.   Gold (and silver to a lesser degree) are seen as a store of wealth in times like these.   In the last week postings have explained this in more detail.


----------



## sinner

Stormin_Norman said:


> can you expand your point? im not sure who mike shedlock is nor his views or what his logic behind them is.




Try these on 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/i-like-gold-here.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/no-fever-like-gold-fever-response.html

Mish is a subscriber to the views of Peak Credit and Peak Earnings

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/06/peak-credit.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/peak-earnings.html

His main point is that the US has been exporting inflation for decades, now they will export deflation for a long time, much longer than any of the gold bulls will be waiting for inflation, so buy gold, treasuries and save your cash!


----------



## Stormin_Norman

explod said:


> Gold is not part of the commodity scene.   Gold (and silver to a lesser degree) are seen as a store of wealth in times like these.   In the last week postings have explained this in more detail.




yes. i wasnt talking about gold in relation to commodity prices; i was talking of commodity price falls putting downwards pressure on inflation.

gold is a currency, not a commodity; unless u like rings.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

sinner said:


> His main point is that the US has been exporting inflation for decades, now they will export deflation for a long time, much longer than any of the gold bulls will be waiting for inflation, so buy gold, treasuries and save your cash!




im reading your links.

what do u mean that gold bulls will have to wait for inflation; but you then say buy gold?


----------



## GumbyLearner

Stormin_Norman said:


> im reading your links.
> 
> what do u mean that gold bulls will have to wait for inflation; but you then say buy gold?




Hey SN 

Many Central Banks have generated a lot of cash to bailout Wall and Fleet Streets lately. Now these same banks (recipients of government dollars) are hoarding a lot of this newly generated cash. This is why people like miners, farmers, businesses cannot obtain loans to survive. 

But once this money is released into the market, then we will witness an inflationary consequence. BUT until this money is in public circulation the inflation problem will not be apparent.

To give a layman's example.

I work with a fella from Saskatchewan and he asked me
"Hey Buddy, do yo know whats going on with the ecomony?"

So I basically said there has been too much credit and people living on material things that are beyond their net worth.

So then he asked me about the future. I told him Inflation. He asked "Ohhh, what's inflation?"

So I said, do you remember Wayne Gretzky's first season with the Edmonton Oilers? He said "YUP". I said well imagine you still have a mint edition NHL first season rookie Wayne Gretzky card. What would it be worth today? He told me it would be thousands of dollars today.

So I told him, what if the Card company just decided to print more of the exact same cards today and circulated them in the market. Would the original card you collected still be worth thousands of dollars today?

He knows nothing about market economics but he understood what I was getting at! :


----------



## Stormin_Norman

GumbyLearner said:


> Hey SN
> 
> Many Central Banks have generated a lot of cash to bailout Wall and Fleet Streets lately. Now these same banks (recipients of government dollars) are hoarding a lot of this newly generated cash. This is why people like miners, farmers, businesses cannot obtain loans to survive.
> 
> But once this money is released into the market, then we will witness an inflationary consequence. BUT until this money is in public circulation the inflation problem will not be apparent.
> 
> To give a layman's example....




i agree with what you said. hence i couldnt follow why sinner was saying deflation would continue but to buy gold. i found that confusing.

btw i have a honours degree in economics. not being pretentious, just wanted to let you know the level of discussion can be a bit above trading cards


----------



## GumbyLearner

Stormin_Norman said:


> i agree with what you said. hence i couldnt follow why sinner was saying deflation would continue but to buy gold. i found that confusing.
> 
> btw i have a honours degree in economics. not being pretentious, just wanted to let you know the level of discussion can be a bit above trading cards




Cheers SN! 

Not trying to sound condescending but many cannot fathom this basic concept.


----------



## kransky

He probably means buy some gold just incase things dont go in the deflation direction.. cos some are saying gold will hit 20k, 30k even. You dont need a large amount to do well 

If they are prepared to "do what it takes" to "save the economy".. doesnt that mean that are going to keep pumping money into the system until the real value of the massive debt's that exist are greatly reduced..

i am thinking aloud here to some degree.

take average Joe Sixpack living somewhere in the US. he owes 500k on his house that he bought for 500k... house prices are falling where joe lives and the house is "worth" 400k now.... joe is inclined to walk away from the house... 

BUT if there is enough cash given out to people/institutions then there will surely come a point where the price of houses start to rise back up again... keeping joe in his house.. stopping the losses on the bank balance sheets...

The effect of this is that it punishes the savers. Any cash you had is now worth a lot less than before.

To me this outcome seems plausible. Punish the good/responsible and help the greedy/irresponsible... 

The deflation alternative... those with cash will prosper.. no one else as banks will get raped with more mortgage losses... as well as commercial property etc... 

do you think its unlikely that enough money can be pumped into the system to reflate the house prices? Cant say i am completely convinced its possible...


----------



## GumbyLearner

kransky said:


> The effect of this is that it punishes the savers. Any cash you had is now worth a lot less than before.
> 
> To me this outcome seems plausible. Punish the good/responsible and help the greedy/irresponsible...
> 
> The deflation alternative... those with cash will prosper.. no one else as banks will get raped with more mortgage losses... as well as commercial property etc...
> 
> do you think its unlikely that enough money can be pumped into the system to reflate the house prices? Cant say i am completely convinced its possible...




You have raised some great hypotheticals Kransky.

Lets imagine that the house prices were re-inflated. What about a re-inflated depreciating structure (ie. buildings, plant/equipment etc..) where the cost of the materials to replace them will be exponentially higher in the future in an inflationary scenario? Not to mention the cost of raw materials to build or maintain that same structure.  Will building materials become cheaper with all these small to mid cap miners going to the wall? Surely the question of available supply has to enter the equation at some point?

Does deflation EQUALLY apply to the land the structure is actually standing on?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i think sinner also mentioned the USA has been exporting inflation for years; i suggest theyve been importing deflation.

importing foreign capital, importing cheap foreign goods. both of which have kept prices low (especially given the undervaluation of the chinese currency)

the usa has a real problem in financing its debt, both short term and long term. atm treasury bonds are going ok, but it seems there is a huge bubble in those atm.

if their government starts to struggle for foreign capital to fund its deficits then there is no other option but to print the money (or create it on balance sheets - same difference).

more USDs = lower currency value. lower currency value means imports are more expensive and the world price of goods rises to the american consumer. (ie inflation).

because gold is quoted in USD, if the USD drops, gold rises. add into that the rest of the world's expansionary monetary policy as they try to reflate the economy and it seems two factors will push gold upwards.

as all currencies suffer from an over supply in an attempt to make people spend their cash holdings to kick start the economy the more attractive gold is as a storer of wealth.

definitely interesting times. but not unprecedented. 1930 and 1974 bear many similarities.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

GumbyLearner said:


> Will building materials become cheaper with all these small to mid cap miners going to the wall? Surely the question of available supply has to enter the equation at some point?




exactly. prices never come down. once companies leave the industry and excess stock removed from the market the remaining competitors will rise their prices.


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> You have raised some great hypotheticals Kransky.
> 
> Lets imagine that the house prices were re-inflated. What about a re-inflated depreciating structure (ie. buildings, plant/equipment etc..) where the cost of the materials to replace them will be exponentially higher in the future? Does deflation apply to the land the structure is actually standing on?




A house can depreciate and delapidate, but land is always land, it has tangible value.   Although they are probably paying a premium in my area a lot of people are land banking.  Putting thier cash into vacant lots.  We live near the beach and a new freeway has just been given the nod which ends here.

Same with a block of gold, its a block of gold.   But a US dollar being diluted is going to cause a problem.    I am running with gold at the moment but will be looking for the right entry into property later on.   I experienced the exponential climb in property prices of the late 1970s, early 80s, it was great and set many of us codgers up for life.  Funny gold went up then too?


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> A house can depreciate and delapidate, but land is always land, it has tangible value.




So true explod. Land like gold is a tangible asset. Not a speculative promise of future gain!!

You know I think a lot of these deflationist arguments stem from the media of which none will address the OTC derivatives nightmare that is about to unfold. Yeah sure there will be deflation thats because the market is claiming an inflated value of stocks where that value clearly doesnt exist. IMHO! 

Of course this will cause deflation in the market, but propping these same over-leveraged fools up will also cause inflation in the long run. Its analogous to someone drinking instant coffee for the sole reason that they dont want to wait an hour to brew one. Get your hit now, just dont be willing to wait a while. 

Deflation is immediate, inflation is conseqential!!!


----------



## boyley

Stormin_Norman said:


> definitely interesting times. but not unprecedented. *1930 and 1974* *bear* many similarities.




Well let me begin my first offering with hello:xmaswave, then let me give you the number 34, please tell me it's signifiance here, if not its coincidence??

Secondly Stormin Norman your pun was intended I suspect?

Cheers Boyley


----------



## Stormin_Norman

haha it wasnt actually! but ill claim it 

1934 the USdollar was devalued against gold?


----------



## boyley

Stormin_Norman said:


> haha it wasnt actually! but ill claim it
> 
> 1934 the USdollar was devalued against gold?




Yes and its 34 years since 1974.


----------



## GumbyLearner

boyley said:


> Yes and its 34 years since 1974.




In 1974 two things happened: the Yom Kippur war and double digit inflation.


----------



## boyley

GumbyLearner said:


> In 1974 two things happened: the Yom Kippur war and double digit inflation.




And thats it.......... Surely there was some consumption of some sort

BTW I like gold but not the commodity.  I am pro gold miners as they have followed the market where gold has stayed steady(ish).  Therefore I sumise the miner have more to gain than gold does when it goes north.

My picks are ASX:NEM TSE:ABX


----------



## Stormin_Norman

boyley said:


> BTW I like gold but not the commodity.  I am pro gold miners as they have followed the market where gold has stayed steady(ish).  Therefore I sumise the miner have more to gain than gold does when it goes north.




sounds logical. if only markets were too.


----------



## boyley

Stormin_Norman said:


> sounds logical. if only markets were too.




So true SN but without logic we have kaos, hence the current 'panic driven' position our markets are in now, but alas, it provides the astute a once in a generation opportunity.


----------



## Ageo

Well i know 1 thing for sure the spread has blown right out so alot of refiners/merchants are wary at this stage.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> A house can depreciate and delapidate, but land is always land, it has tangible value.





tell that to the lucky chaps that live in San Francisco


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Long AUD Gold today for a bit of a Christmas punt.  :chimney




Covered around lunch today. 

Need those profits for my new year celebrations!


----------



## cuttlefish

Its going to be interesting to see whether golds run has legs or not.  

I find it promising that the gold stocks appear to be leading the way this time rather than trailing the price, albeit from low bases.  The strength of the major producers in the Aus market - LGL and NCM - gives some indication that an institutional shift into the sector may also be occurring, because the types of movements these stocks have experienced, given their market caps, can't be created by trigger happy punters alone (surely?!?).


I'm curious as to when the breakouts in LGL/NCM will pause for a proper breather - I've been surprised at the ongoing strength (not complaining though!).


----------



## bankit

cuttlefish said:


> I'm curious as to when the breakouts in LGL/NCM will pause for a proper breather - I've been surprised at the ongoing strength (not complaining though!).




Hi Cuttlefish,

From what I have heard, the interest in LGL/NCM is from overseas buying.

Bankit


----------



## Rockon2

Rockon2 said:


> 3 Gold picks atm....  ALD TRY TAM




... TYMFTR  


Pattern finished on TAM imo... taken $ , as well as TRY and ALD


----------



## cuttlefish

bankit said:


> Hi Cuttlefish,
> 
> From what I have heard, the interest in LGL/NCM is from overseas buying.
> 
> Bankit




Cheers - that seems likely - globally the choice of quality unhedged gold producers is relatively thin compared to the choices available in other commodity and industry sectors (as far as I can tell anyway). So if the current  gold price strength does continue, alongside a scarcity of physical supply, we might see the movements amplified within the gold stocks.


----------



## Page

Gold prices in Indian market have come down yesterday. Were as in foreign markets gold is moving on both the directions.


----------



## sinner

Good morning gold bugs.

I had a great night trading CFDs on my IGmarkets account for the first time proper.

I populated my account with $250 and was happily scalping spot forex and gold minis up to $280 and then the US markets opened and a couple of positions wiped me down to $130! Managed to scalp back up to $150 in the end before calling it quits. A very interesting learning experience.

Anyway, the reason I am posting is the end of my shift and browsing my bookmarks came across this, worth a read:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kirby/kirby123108.html


----------



## The Edge

Friday 2nd day of 2009

To the Q, where is gold heading, likely nowhere,
except a protacted trading range.  While no one
has a corner on what any market may definitively
do over some span of time, general direction is
more ascertainable.

[The ability to post charts exceeds the limits of 
mine, so one will have to refercence their own.]

An annual chart shows gold peaked at a point
equal to its previous runnup, from 100 in the mid-
1970s, to its 1980 high at 850, 750 $ difference.

It is not likely an accident that from the 1999 low
of 250, gold subsequently peaked last March at
around 1040, a difference of 790, close enough
for golden horse shoes.

Gold closed close to the middle of its 2008 annual
range, which says there was sufficient supply in
the market to push price to that lower level.

A Quarterly chart amplifies the above observation.
Keep in mind, the discussion centers around facts,
not opinions. The volume at the highs was record,
which speaks to record sellers at higher levels.

Given that the public tends to be long, and with gold
in paricular, in love with the long side, as well, one
might then deduce that the record volume of sellers
came from commercial interests, so-called "smart
money."  

[That is a subjective observation, but the other side 
of the argument looks weak.]

Staying with a Quarterly chart...[why the longer
time frame references?  They are more controlling.]
From the 1980 high, gold bottomed 20 years later.
It remained in a protracted trading range during that
span....which goes back to the opening sentence
as to wither gold?

There will be strong rallies, and likelier stronger breaks,
but the overall direction will be sideways with a down
side bias.  The analysis could be wrong, but there are
historical price references and, more importantly, that
heavy selling from the top.  

Supply and demand are as basic as one can get, and 
those are principles to be ignored at one's own peril.

The smaller time frames, monthly to daily can be left
to devising one's own trading strategies.

Several mentions to gold stocks appear here.  One
point with which to reckon is that gold stocks are not
a proxy for gold, and those who buy the metal stocks
anticipating rewards commensurate with the metal
are buying fool's gold.

During this overall collapse, one of the stronger recoveries
has been in gold, but its overall trend remains down.
Most of the gold stocks mentioned are under $10, a level
which attracts little to no institutional interest.  Most all
are hugging their lowest lows.

It would be a mistake, and this is but an opinion from a
trading perspective, to bottom pick a sector that fails to
perform any where as well as its underlying base.  If the
stocks are such a bargain, why have they failed to rise
above what can be called poor performance, of late?

Gold stocks are companies that must deal with corporate
issues and circumstances unrelated to the direction of
the price of the metal.  Poorly made decisions, an inability 
to obtain working capital, etc, etc, etc, factors unrelated 
to the metal but directly reflected on the stock price are 
legitimate reasons not to expect a parallel performance
of gold, which is unemcumbered by corporate ideology.

Any interest in gold stocks should be based on an
analysis independent of the metal, and solely on the
performance ability, as in any other stock consideration.
Do not use gold-colored glasses to buy what look like
dogs.

To the non-"strategy" that the stocks seem like bargains.
So say you seems.

One person's opinion.


----------



## Trembling Hand

The Edge said:


> During this overall collapse, one of the stronger recoveries
> has been in gold, but its overall trend remains down.
> *Most of the gold stocks mentioned are under $10, a level
> which attracts little to no institutional interest*.  Most all
> are hugging their lowest lows.




Edge I like some of your thoughts in the above but the underlined statement is just plain wrong. That's an old through away line from the States that has never applied to Aussie stocks and I'm not even sure it applies anymore in the States.

I'm no gold bug by a long shot but I have to say just because something has not performed in a previous period should not count it out for consideration in the future. In fact is that not exactly what a Fundie is looking for, under value, and what a Techie tries to jump on as soon as a move begins??


----------



## cuttlefish

It really should be based on market cap and not price point as well.

Someone has been buying NCM and LGL over the past two months - and given their multi-billion dollar market caps it seems unlikely that all of the price movement has been driven by punters - so some of it has to be institutional buying.   

LGL has gone from fairly recent lows of $1.80 to over $3.00 - hardly a waste of time being on that move. (particularly if leveraged with a big stack of  options contracts)

NCM  has gone from a low of $17 two months ago to $34 - basically doubling in price in just over two months.    That is not a bad move for a large cap stock in a bear market.

Because these stocks are highly leveraged to the gold price, having now gotten rid of all of their hedging, they're equally susceptible to price falls as price rises - thus a risky proposition for institutions.   

To me the fact that there is such strong buying of these demonstrates a possible confidence in continued gold price strength.  (whether thats misplaced or not time will tell, but I'm not hearing about peoples physical gold holdings around the dinner table or the bbq as yet, so I think there's plenty of room for a proper gold bull market to form).


----------



## The Edge

Friday  2 January 2009


From Trembling Hand:

* Quote:
* Originally Posted by The Edge  
* Most of the gold stocks mentioned are under $10, a level
* which attracts little to no institutional interest. Most all
* are hugging their lowest lows.

> ...the underlined statement is just plain wrong.

I do not follow gold stocks, and I took a quick look at a
few mentioned here, and some from a google search, so
the sample may not be representative.  Of most all the
gold stocks I see, they are under $15, and on significant
lows.

That low priced stocks do not attract much institutional
interest is not a throw-away consideration.  From a 
practical stand point, intsitutions do not want to become
dominant holders, particularly when they want to exit,
but that is more of a topic and less of an issue.

> ...I have to say just because something has not 
> performed in a previous period should not count it out 
> for consideration in the future. 


That is more of one's style, and I would not disagree with
your statement.  I believe I addressed that by saying:

"Any interest in gold stocks should be based on an
analysis independent of the metal, and solely on the
performance ability, as in any other stock consideration.
Do not use gold-colored glasses to buy what look like
dogs."

When a stock or commodity is under-performing the
general market, for me, it is a clear message that the
stock or commodity under consideration is already making
its own statement as to its underlying strength, or lack
of same. 

Caveat emptor.   Why go with mediocrity?


> In fact is that not exactly what a Fundie is looking for, 
> under value, and what a Techie tries to jump on as soon 
> as a move begins?? 

By all means, nothing should be discounted from future
consideration, but I put it into a context of the overall
market from a relative performance perspective.  Just
wait until there is strength exhibited so as not to get
bogged down in a hapless trading range.

Without going into the mechanics of how or when, it
seems we may agree. 

The point of my post stems from seeing too many think 
something is cheap without thinking it can become cheaper, 
and is likely the case, given trends, etc, and I am simply 
airing a note of caution and due thought before taking a 
position.

I also qualify my posts as one person's opinion, to provoke
thought and be ignored at will, as most will.


Happy New Year to you.


----------



## Rockon2

Gold might have a tumble back to around the 800 mark...


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i wouldnt be surprised. inflation figures have been very tame so far. i think we wont see 900+ until the bailouts start inflating the economy later in the year.


----------



## refined silver

Stormin_Norman said:


> i wouldnt be surprised. inflation figures have been very tame so far. i think we wont see 900+ until the bailouts start inflating the economy later in the year.




The massive increases in the monetary base have mostly gone into US Treasuries which have gone parabolic. 

When that bursts there is a massive amount of liquidity looking for a home which will cause price rises to start showing up elsewhere.

And yes, rockon2 the rising wedge is the main near term downside risk I see too.


----------



## The Edge

Saturday  3 January 2009

From a longer term perspective to a shorter view
of gold, having just finished updating charts for the
past week, this is what could unfold:

[Apologies for the lack of charts, but that is not
within my limited scope of abilities.]

I reference charts and how they depict the forces 
of supply and demand, along with volume.   It
reveals the net activity of every possible source
of market participation...the footprints of all the
players, who cannot hide detection.

This is market activity, the most reliable source of
information, derived from the market itself.  And,
it is factual data.  From this information source, 
one can often make valid assessments of where
price may go, depending upon the time frame
employed.  

Here is but one way in which to view "technical
analysis."

Late October through November, gold built a base
from which a rally ensued, to 835, about 55 $ above
the trading range high, 780, 30 October.

The next rally, to mid-December, stopped at 885,
about 50 $ higher from the previous TR high, 835.

The high on 17 December, a relatively wide range bar,
closed slightly above mid-range, saying there are sellers 
up there.  The previous bar, 16 December, was also a
relatively wide range bar with a poor close, again, an
indication of sellers present.  

[A range depicts the battle between supply and demand.
The close says who won.]

The bar on 18 December, similar to the two just
described, with a low end close, sellers still present.

For the next four days, price holds in smaller ranges.
This is detailed, but very revealing.  Of those four
days of consolidation, the two largest bars show
under mid-range closes, and the message should
be apparent: selling is present.

That small range which contained the sell-off from the
885 high held at the top of the prvious highs from the
end of November.  [previous resistance becomes
support; previous support, once broken becomes
resistance.]

What we are doing here is gathering information
from the market in order to ultimately make an informed
decision.  It takes more time to explain, but it does
provide direction, eventually.

There is a rally out of that small range to the upside.
The bar is wide range, showing ease of movement to
the upside, but it comes clothed in caveats...
26 December bar.

The close is at the top, can mean exhaustion, but we
do not know that, yet.  The reason for taking that point 
of view, [beyond experience] is because that wide range 
bar to the upside does not make any advance over the 
recent highs.  That is what should be expected in an up
market, [which is not saying gold is in an up market.]

More telling, the rally occurs on anemic volume, and 
the lack of volume says there is not a lot of buyers
participating to the upside.  Isn't that what one would
expect from buyers, if they are in control.  Yes, IF they
are in control.

Last Monday, price made a marginal higher high above
885, emphasis on the word marginal.  Look at where
price closes...right on the low.  

The message of the market for that day?

A recent rally high that should excite buyers and give
reason to route the sellers, if price is to go higher, says
buyers are not willing, or able, participants. [= the
message.]  So it is the sellers that are obviously in charge.
Obvious now that it is pointed out.

Also, note the lack of upside thrust of this recent high
to that of the previous thrusts, in the area of about
50 $, +/-.

Too soon to say?

Stay with me.

Tuesday's bar is lower, and the close is again low end.
The market is saying that selling is in control, based
on the observable facts, and all we are doing, at this
point, is observing HOW the market acts as it makes
a rally high to the current level.

Wednesday was a pre-holiday market, so volume was
sufficient to make a souflle, but the range was wide
to the upside, again on air, with a high end close that
fails to take out the high from the previous day.

That brings us to Friday, 2 January.  Price rallied above 
the previous two day highs, but the close was just under
mid range, and lower than the previous day's rally close.

Without getting into too many observations, that little
high from the past week may have attracted some new
buying, but the activity could very well be a trap.

Can this information be put to profitabe use?

Go back to 10 October.  That is a huge range, a 
vertical bar to the downside, and on a sharply
increased volume day.  That bar says nothing but
sellers were present to push the market down, at
will, with buyers unable to stem the tide.

[That was the market's message then, and subsequent
activity confirmed that message.  Right now, price is
simply retesting that supply area.]

Friday's activity is going up against that huge supply
bar.  When the activity of the past two weeks is
put into a context...yes, price is up, but it is not
exhibiting strength...we can draw a reasonable
conclusion.  In fact, [and we only like to deal with 
facts], the internal interpretation of the recent market 
activity strongly suggest seller are present more than 
buyers.

Sellers = supply, buyers = demand.  Based on the
principle of supply v demand, supply is flexing itself
more than demand.  If supply is greater than demand,
what can be expected?

Using the facts gathered, so far, let us take a look
at a weekly chart.  What will not be apparent, until
it is pointed out, is that the range for the week is
the smallest since the October low.

What does a smaller weekly range say?  It says that
sellers were in control and kept the range from
expanding higher, and that prevented buyers from
making any further gains to the upside.  Supply is
in control, according to observable facts.

Note the range of the bar two weeks earlier, and
note where price closed for the week.  That week's
message from the market should begin to make more 
sense.  The last week was an inside bar, contained, 
and the close was right on the high.  On a daily bar, 
it was earlier noted that a close on the very high 
could mean exhaustion...buyers were spent, too weak 
to push price higher.

Also from the weekly chart is the most significant piece
of information of all.

Do you see it?

The trend.  It is down.  In a down trend, we should be
looking for opportunities to sell.  Isn't that what we
have been able to glean from observing the quality of 
market behavior on the daily chart, and the weekly range,
small, [contained], and a mid-range close says sellers
are in charge?

A proper trade is to be short with a stop above 895 or
900 hundred, [to avoid spike-like one day behavior].

There is no need for any mechanical indicators, drawing
converging lines, [that may somethimes work], Elliott wave,
etc, etc, etc.  

Nope.  The market itself tells us everything we need
to know, and it tells us in a timely fashion, minimizing
guesswork, and minimizing risk exposure.

Could this analysis be wrong?

Absolutely!

But....

I will take trade setups like this all the time, knowing
that the timing could be off a bit, but using and
relying upon the factors of supply and demand, market
principles that are, have been, and will continue to be
relaible and true, and will consistently lead to more 
winners over losers.

For me, being short from Monday's close was obvious,
for the reasons cited.  Friday's close is added 
confirmation to be short, add to positions, or go short 
if not yet having taken a  position.

Market activity.  There ain't anything any better.

Just one person's opinion.

Happy New Year!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edge PLEASE stay off that enter button. A post 300 lines high is hard and annoying to read. I don't know what your screen res is set to or how good your eyes are but this site is already maximised for the average users screen res and putting 6 words per line is a long way away from the ideal formatting for most readers.

Please!

As for posting charts have a read of this,
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401

A picture really will save you and us a 1000s words


----------



## The Edge

I see...the importance of style over annoying substance.

The addition of charts would have been, simply, the addition
of charts and would not have eliminated a single sentence or 
one of the 1,000 words.

How rude of me to presume effort might prevail over ease.

Easily remedied, good sir.


----------



## Sean K

The Edge said:


> I see...the importance of style over annoying substance.
> 
> The addition of charts would have been, simply, the addition
> of charts and would not have eliminated a single sentence or
> one of the 1,000 words.
> 
> How rude of me to presume effort might prevail over ease.
> 
> Easily remedied, good sir.



Edge, to be honest, I didn't read your tome either due to the style and length. 

I would have liked to see a chart, which is VERY easy to attach, and TH has pointed you in the right direction.

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## arco

*The Edge*

Simple solution for displaying charts

Download MWSnap (its free and simple to use). 

http://www.snapfiles.com/get/mwsnap.html

Capture the chart, now save your 'snap' to any folder, and then when posting use the forum "Manage attachments" uploader to access the folder. (See the 'additional options panel' in you forum reply window)

Very simple - if you need more help, please ask. A chart will make it easy for others to follow. As per example below......

rgds - arco

.


----------



## Whiskers

Rockon2 said:


> Gold might have a tumble back to around the 800 mark...




Yes, I've stuck my neck out and suggested 785ish I think it was... but although I reckon a few gold miners charts look due for a correction too, it's proving a bit resiliant so far.

Arco, you're itchy cloud thingo  seems to be pointing south. You got a number in mind?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh boy!! 



The Edge said:


> I see...the importance of style over annoying substance.
> 
> The addition of charts would have been, simply, the addition
> of charts and would not have eliminated a single sentence or
> one of the 1,000 words.




Not true. It would have eliminated these for a start 



The Edge said:


> [Apologies for the lack of charts, but that is not
> within my limited scope of abilities.]





You go to the trouble of putting together the work why the hell not then put it into a format that is readable?? Most will not discover your undoubted brilliance if they find it hard to read. Very Simple.


----------



## cuttlefish

The Edge said:


> I see...the importance of style over annoying substance.
> 
> The addition of charts would have been, simply, the addition
> of charts and would not have eliminated a single sentence or
> one of the 1,000 words.
> 
> How rude of me to presume effort might prevail over ease.
> 
> Easily remedied, good sir.




I actually read it all, but not having a USD gold candlestick chart handy meant a lot of the point was lost on me, so I'd have liked to have seen one in there as well - preferably annotated.


----------



## sails

If they look interesting, I sometimes copy these long, narrow posts into Word and re-format them for my own benefit.   I have done this with Edge's recent very long post and, if Edge is OK with it, am happy to post the formatted post with some spelling corrections as highlighted by Word  (again for my benefit).

Is that OK with you, Edge?

Edge has some interesting concepts especially in the supply/demand and volume/price areas for those studying these concepts.  He certainly puts a lot of effort into his writings.  

Although, to keep hitting the enter button after every few words, must make the task more difficult.  Wouldn't it be easier to simply let the words automatically wrap the width of the page and then only hit enter a couple of times for a new paragraph?  I am mystified...    Motorway uses a similar narrow posts - perhaps it is special software???


----------



## Cartman

sails said:


> Edge has some interesting concepts especially in the supply/demand and volume/price areas for those studying these concepts.  He certainly puts a lot of effort into his writings.
> 
> Motorway uses a similar narrow posts - perhaps it is special software???




i actually found it fine to read but maybe im *narrow minded* 

ps its all right if i dont use capitals and apostrophes isnt it lol ---


----------



## bankit

Rockon2 said:


> Gold might have a tumble back to around the 800





Hi Rockon2,

I have a different perspective and have used your chart to show that I feel we are in a channel at the moment.

Time will tell I guess

Bankit


----------



## shuei

for consideration. when will the treasury bonds bubble burst?? and, when it does, where will it push the price of gold??

IMO gold will retrace slightly from where it is now but not much. 
the basis for this is simple, the global talk of the treasury bonds bubble of 'about to pop' is on the tip of everyones tongue, which i BELEIVE to be a signal that this global event is just around the corner. When this does occur it will leave only one option, GOLD !!! so pure, so simple. A true haven for all concerned, a place to park when the currency market in the US shats itself due to inflation. GOLD WILL = TRUE MONEY!

Look for the signs and prosper on this monumentous event. I know I will.
Good luck.


----------



## arco

Whiskers said:


> Yes, I've stuck my neck out and suggested 785ish I think it was... but although I reckon a few gold miners charts look due for a correction too, it's proving a bit resiliant so far.
> 
> Arco, you're itchy cloud thingo  seems to be pointing south. You got a number in mind?




Complex situation ATM - The current move could be an A,B,C correction.

So, just highlighting possible short term trending/trading possibilities (H4 chart)

Therefore, we could prepare for a potential reversal pattern in the grey box which may then form a bullish Gartley, or alternatively keep watching for a break above current resistance.

Can re-assess if/once the PA gets into the grey box.


----------



## refined silver

Re when will inflation hit. 

Here are a couple of L/T charts up to Nov 08. You can see what has happened to the money base, but note that the spike hasn't yet shown up in the cash in circulation just yet. That's coming...


----------



## refined silver

Now if you want an armageddon type chart, here is a chart of bank borrowings from the Fed Reserve from 1919 to Nov 2007. The large spike in 90/91 was the Savings and Loans Crisis which saw the failure of 747 banks.


----------



## refined silver

Now here is the same chart but including the last 12 months - from 1919 to Nov 2008. Note the previous spikes have all disappeared...!!

Aaah Maaaa!! 

Just trying to tease some thoughts... If the previous chart showed the stress on the banking system which saw 747 banks so insolvent they went bankrupt, what does that say about the current stress in the system and the current level of insolvency??? (Due to the quadrillion dollar OTC derivatives mountain meltdown)


----------



## arco

refined silver said:


> Now here is the same chart but including the last 12 months - from 1919 to Nov 2008. Note the previous spikes have all disappeared...!!
> 
> Aaah Maaaa!!
> 
> Just trying to tease some thoughts... If the previous chart showed the stress on the banking system which saw 747 banks so insolvent they went bankrupt, what does that say about the current stress in the system and the current level of insolvency??? (Due to the quadrillion dollar OTC derivatives mountain meltdown)




No worry, The US can print some more money and buy anything that fails. Simple solution.


----------



## The Edge

Sunday  4 January 2009

It just occurred to me while looking at a spot price for gold that it would be
unlikely anyone would have a US daily chart, to which I referenced, and
render my post useless.  

Having neither the skills, however minimal the requirement, nor the inclination
to attempt posting a chart, it did not seem unreasonable for anyone to simply
look at their own chart and follow along with my post.  It turns out I was wrong in that assumption, and for that, I owe a blanket apology for my lack of consideration in realizing the situation I created.

Apologies to all.

I am even posting to the end of the line, if that makes any difference than the way I typically post.

It is 1 a.m. here, so I will see if I can get the two charts referenced posted sometime tomorrow because the points made are important in understanding how informative is market activity, as revealed in charts.

Let me also extend a particular apology to Trembling Hand for taking acception to his response, which I now see in a different light, for the fault
lies with me.

Thank you.




I see upon review of my post that I only got the mechanics half right.  Even something as simple as that presents difficulty for me.


----------



## nunthewiser

The Edge said:


> Sunday  4 January 2009
> 
> It just occurred to me while looking at a spot price for gold that it would be
> unlikely anyone would have a US daily chart, to which I referenced, and
> render my post useless.
> 
> Having neither the skills, however minimal the requirement, nor the inclination
> to attempt posting a chart, it did not seem unreasonable for anyone to simply
> look at their own chart and follow along with my post.  It turns out I was wrong in that assumption, and for that, I owe a blanket apology for my lack of consideration in realizing the situation I created.
> 
> Apologies to all.
> 
> I am even posting to the end of the line, if that makes any difference than the way I typically post.
> 
> It is 1 a.m. here, so I will see if I can get the two charts referenced posted sometime tomorrow because the points made are important in understanding how informative is market activity, as revealed in charts.
> 
> Let me also extend a particular apology to Trembling Hand for taking acception to his response, which I now see in a different light, for the fault
> lies with me.
> 
> Thank you.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I see upon review of my post that I only got the mechanics half right.  Even something as simple as that presents difficulty for me.





I
wouldnt
let
it 
worry
ya
mate

avaniceday


----------



## The Edge

Apparently too slow to catch my error and edit"

> Let me also extend a particular apology to Trembling Hand for taking acception to his response

That should read exception, not acception.  The hour was late.


----------



## The Edge

Sunday  4 January 2009

Being Sunday, I have not yet been able to get copies of the two gold charts I had referenced.  


Sails:
If it will be helpful, by all means, repost what I posted.  I am curious to see the difference.


Cuttlefish:

When I said I do not follow gold stocks, and most mentioned were around $10, or less, you followed up with mention of NCM, having gone from 17 to 34.  While waiting for my charts, let me address NCM.  It is Austrailian, so the only chart I could find was from BigCharts.com.  It is lacking in volume detail, too bunched, but similar observations can be made.

[One will have to get their own chart to follow this line of analysis.]


If you have a position, it may be better that you do not read this so as not to influence you, one way of the other.  NCM has outperfomed gold, itself since the rally from the Oct lows.  Gold has yet to exceed its last swing high, while NCM did go above its Oct swing high, showing relative strength, a plus.

In my earlier post, I drew the conclusion to be short gold from last Monday's close, as the first signal, and/or again on Firday's close, with a stop above 900.  Let us jump to Friday's close for NCM... several factors converge.

Implicit in any anlysis I advance is that the markets are organic, they evolve as a result of influences, ultimately all coming from human input, and as a consequence, they are psychologically driven.  No one has to agree.  I am merely qualifying all remarks in the gathering of factual information provided by the market itself, in the form of market activity as depicted in charts.  Trading is an art, not a science that can be distilled into artificial mechanics, no matter how sophisticated the effort.

It's close on Friday, 2 January, was slightly under mid-range of that day's bar, and just under Thursday's close, both occurring at the high of NCM's current upswing.  Those are facts.  What is the underlying logic behind those facts?  What is the story of this market?

Note further that the current swing high for NCM is at 35, strong resistance when you look at previous failed rallies back in April, May, and a weaker July.  Also, in March, price gapped down through 35, adding more to the significance of that price.

The fact that price closed under mid-range on Friday's bar says that sellers were present.  In the battle between supply and demand, the close decides the winner.  Here, sellers [supply] won...a fact.  Another fact is that price closed lower than the previous day...a sign of weakness, [otherwise, the close would have been higher than that of the previous day.]

Now, consider the logic behind these facts gathered, so far.  The price of NCM is at a swing high, which also happens to be strong resistance, and as just observed, at a place where selling has appeared, just the opposite of what one would expect of a market undergoing a rally.  If the market is strong, would you agree that signs of buying, [demand], should be showing up?

To emphasize the apparent weakness, and seeming lack of demand, look at volume.  As the market rallied into a strong resistance area, volume dropped to its lowest level on the entire chart.  From that, it is logical to infer that demand buyers are unwilling, or unable to participate in this rally.

Once again, all we are doing is gathering factual information, the activity the market is exhibiting.  We are not done.

See the wide range bar with a high end close, I am guessing from Monday, 22 December?  A sign of strength.  But wait, look at the volume activity attendant with that day.  A large volume spike.  Generally, when you see an unusual spike in volume, it can mean the end of a rally/trend, depending upon where it apears.  This particular volume spike occurs at last July's failure rally, and, just under the identified strong reisistance at 35.  Caveat emptor.

Now, this is a bit more detailed.  From that day, 2 weeks ago, note the price activity, [don't forget volume] that gets NCM to where it closed on Friday, just past.  It took seven more trading days to barely make a new high, with so little volume behind that labored rally....and we already addresed the character and quality of the end of this rally, so far.  The point to note is that the rally to get to Friday's high took a lot of time from the bar that we thought could be strength, but apparently is not, and there was no conviction in volume.

This also fits in with the analysis of gold itself, as commented previously and independently of this chart.  Both are exhibiting signs of selling activity at a point where buyers should be in control.

Given that facts just gathered, and applying some logic, all describing the overall market activity in the span covered, it seems to me, at least, that the market is telling a story.  When you consider that the market is comprised of every possible participant that has made a buy/sell determination, that is powerful information to have.  

Could the deduction be wrong?

Of course.  Maybe I built in a bias in thinking from the start, and I am jumping the gun.  That happens. Keep in mind, there was zero consideration given to mechanical devises, like moving averages, stochastics, RSI, Elliot Wave, all attempts to capture the market in a square box.  Somethimes they work, and I guess that is what keeps their appeal to people trying to capture lightening in a bottle.  There was no consideration to what news might have been going on.  Hell, take away the identity of the underlying stock, and what difference would it make?

It could be that the activity in Gaza may prompt a buying spike.  That is what stops are for.  Nothing is 100%.  All we want is an edge, an advantage in making a buy or sell decision.  Should the market spike higher, it does nothing to alter the underlying character of the market, and it is likely to prove short-lived.  If not, if price works higher, that is okay.  The loss for being short was reasonable, and taking 10 trades with stories like this, or any variation of the market acivity theme, will lead to success.

If there is no spike, and gold does continue lower from Friday, the market advertized itself.  All that was necessary was a gathering of facts.

Don't anybody throw stones at me for not providing a chart, or for the length of the post.  Go to BigChats.com, put in NCM for symbol, and when it comes back not found, go to country and click on Austrailia, and you should get a chart to compare with this narrative.

As to its length, there are no short-cuts in gathering facts.

I trust this effort to be more successful?

The Edge


----------



## Rockon2

bankit said:


> Hi Rockon2,
> 
> I have a different perspective and have used your chart to show that I feel we are in a channel at the moment.
> 
> Time will tell I guess
> 
> Bankit





Very Possible Bankit...... and time certainly will tell.

Looking at a shorter time frame Gold might jump up


----------



## arco

The Edge said:


> Sunday  4 January 2009
> 
> Go to BigChats.com, put in NCM for symbol, and when it comes back not found, go to country and click on Austrailia, and you should get a chart to compare with this narrative.
> 
> The Edge




I cant find that - do you have to be a member?


----------



## The Edge

www.bigcharts.com


----------



## sails

arco said:


> I cant find that - do you have to be a member?




Try this Arco:  http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=au:NCM


----------



## arco

sails said:


> Try this Arco:  http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=au:NCM




Thanks. I was trying NCM.AX


----------



## sails

The Edge said:


> Sunday  4 January 2009
> Sails:
> If it will be helpful, by all means, repost what I posted.  I am curious to see the difference...




Hi Edge - it would look the same as what you have just posted with the lines extending to full width of the page.  Probably no need to repost unless someone else would like it.

Certainly appreciate the effort you put into your detailed posts and agree there's not much you can do with the length!


----------



## cuttlefish

The Edge said:


> Cuttlefish:
> 
> When I said I do not follow gold stocks, and most mentioned were around $10, or less, you followed up with mention of NCM, having gone from 17 to 34.  While waiting for my charts, let me address NCM.  It is Austrailian, so the only chart I could find was from BigCharts.com.  It is lacking in volume detail, too bunched, but similar observations can be made.





Cheers Edge for your thoughts - I've followed it with the chart alongside this time - your analysis seems to make sense and is consistent with how I've been starting to view volume/price of late from intraday chart observations and applying some of the stuff learnt from people on here and other sources.

I still see the strong up moves in NCM and LGL - both reasonably large cap gold companies with strong upside and, importantly, also downside leverage to the gold price as a positive.  Institutional buying of these implies to me a willingness to take on a leveraged gold price risk at a time where the market already has a lot of inherent risks.   This gives me some confidence that some out there are seeing recent gold price strength as the start of a bull phase in the gold price.

But on the shorter term analysis, both NCM and LGL are reaching points where there is significant historical congestion and resistance.  Given the recent strong rally this seems like a reasonable breathing point *if* the gold price also has a breather.

I still see the potential, as I have all year, to be caught out by trying too hard to trade in and out of any gold rally - this is because I view gold as a USD short (and a short on currency in general) and so if the USD suddenly free-falls then the sharpness and strength of the upside swings in gold could be impressive.   In some ways the recent strength of NCM and other stocks supports this sort of view - anyone with their eye off the ball has missed out on a 100% rally already.  

At the moment my view is that price pullbacks or volatility collapses in these stocks present re-entry opportunities.

I'm primarily focused on LGL, but because I am taking short/medium term positions in these I'll refrain from discussing too much about the potential future short term direction of specific stocks because it does tend to have the potential to cloud/interfere with my own independant judgement/viewpoint.


----------



## arco

Follow up on post #6040

Action has now reached the Kumo........and is trying to break through
_Chart capture at @ +820_

Currently *+1050*

.


----------



## BentRod

Nice job Arco.

I took the inside bar setup on the hourly @ around 861 for another stab at a run lower.
Real tight stops on this one though so will see what happens.


----------



## kransky

wow great signals arco... it fell hard right through, but i was at the gym so i missed it


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah, nice job Arco. I'd have done pretty much the same... but I want to change trading to a different entity and am having a delay getting it set up. bugga. 

Looking at the USDX I'd say it could easily kick back up around the .84+ again. I think the euro is in a similar but reciprical pattern.

That would likely send the POG quite a bit lower. The question then is, which way is the greater trend developing.


----------



## arco

Morning All

PA entered the grey box as shown on previous charts.

I managed *+1040* before I closed off.....

Kumo break will now need to be tested, (broken S=R?) so at some point there
may be another chance to enter off a Kumo rejection or break.

GTA - arco


----------



## arco

.

Just looking at my account and realised my auto TP was also touched at * +2000* on the 50% balance (stop loss was not hit).

So average was *+1520*

Oh happy day...............


----------



## The Edge

Tuesday  6 January  2009

A few added thoughts on the gold.  Someone may be sending me a few charts
to copy that go along with previous post 6036, page 302, when I explained how
market activity led to the conclusion to short gold on Monday, 29 December, and
again on Friday, 2 January.

This type of analysis is not standard chart fare, but an argument could be made
that it is fairly accurate.  It also addresses a common question about charts'
"predicting."   There was no prediction involved, jus a gathering of facts that
would lead to a logical conclusion based on the facts, and the conclusion would
lead to the next likely market direction.

One of the most important considerations in any market analysis is knowledge
of the market trend, for that is the prevailing direction.  Simply by assessing
where a turn may occur, or the direction to continue, "knowing" the likely
direction of price has already been established by the trend, so "predicting"
price behavior is not the correct way of expressing what may develop.

While it is easier to determine the likely direction for price to take, what is
impossible to know it the WAY in which price will develop.  In the current gold
example, price has dropped about $25-$30 from last Friday.  Who knew?!
Price could just as easily crept lower, a few dollars at a time.  THAT is what
cannot be know in advance, the HOW of future market development.  By
adhering to the trend, momentum is the "wind behind a trader's back."

The results from any buy/sell decision are really just symptoms of the chosen
process.  Consideration of the process of deciding when to buy or sell
is certainly more important than the results that follow.  The same kind of
results were shown in NCM, a sell off after the gathering of facts, post 6056, p 303.
I will not address NCM out of respect for Cuttlefish having an interest in gold
stocks, and where I have none.

Cheers.


----------



## The Edge

Tuesday  6 January 2009

While watching gold intraday, note was made that once was low was established,
no further downside progress ensued.  That was taken as a sign that support
may be coming in, particularly since the volume picked up around the lows,
volume that held price and did not push it lower.  At that point, it would have been
wise to have placed a protective buy stop, on half position, just above the
established trading range.

Not having watched the market after that, I saw price rallied strongly by the close, 
and for certain, half position was covered, with a stop lowered a few dollars
above the week ago Monday high.  These are the kinds of observations one
would watch for, regarding market activity.  The initial assessment to be short
remains intact, however, the strength demonstrated has to be respected, for there is
no guarantee that the highs from last week will hold.

That is my contribution for identifying market activity, gathering surrounding
facts, and then drawing logical conclusions from the information that harmonizes
with the trend.  In the instant gold, the trend is down on the larger time frames,
and less so on the daily chart.  This is an excellent example of why identifying 
the trend for the time frame being traded is so critical.  Were the daily chart
more convincingly defined to be in a down trend, a defensive posture would
not be so necessary.  Where the daily trend could be taken as sideways, then
the short position is less secure.

Know the trend in the time frame under which decisions are being made.  Also
know the other time frame trends for possible direction if the smaller time frame
is less defined.  This cannot be stressed enough in employing one's strategy.

Also, follow your instincts, more, act on them.  The intraday observation I saw
about gold holding was something that should have been acted on immediately.

I knew it, but did not act on it.  Give back resulted.  My trading diary reminds
me of that, but I chose to do something else, at the time and right up to the close.  
It is a great idea to keep a trading diary for each trade...when, why,
what followed, what was the reponse, how was the trade managed,?  etc.

Cheers!


----------



## Sean K

I'm feeling harmonized, The Edge. Cheers


----------



## cuttlefish

The Edge said:


> I will not address NCM out of respect for Cuttlefish having an interest in gold
> stocks, and where I have none.
> 
> Cheers.




Edge - cheers for the posts - interesting to read - in relation to the comment above - please don't let my earlier comments stop yourself or anyone else discussing specific gold stocks.  My main purpose was that I will attempt to refrain from discussing my own views on the specific stocks I'm trading with short/medium term positions.   I've found that when I express opinions about stocks I'm trading this can affect my own psycchology around the trade.  

For example if I post a comment that I think stock XYZ is more likely to congest or fall than push on with a rise, and then in the next hour or day I see something occur that changes that viewpoint - I may tend to still want to cling to the earlier 'publicly posted' viewpoint psychologically in order to 'prove myself right' etc.  Or alternately I may not act on new information out of some sense of responsibility for not wanting to acting in a way that is not accordant with an earlier publicly expressed viewpoint etc. etc.

Possibly a topic in its own right - how does publicly expressing a viewpoint on a stock affect trading psychology around it.  (actually I've seen WaneL post a subsection of Murphy's Law about posting live's trades  - tends to ring true some of the time).



> This is an excellent example of why identifying
> the trend for the time frame being traded is so critical. Were the daily chart
> more convincingly defined to be in a down trend, a defensive posture would
> not be so necessary. Where the daily trend could be taken as sideways, then
> the short position is less secure.




This is a very good point and its something I've realised I need to take on board more given that the options positions I'm trading are quite long term trend positions, but I'm trading them with mostly short dated series and adjusting short term around volatility and short term direction.  I've got strategies for dealing with spikes, congestions and counter trends but I could work more on structuring my viewpoint on timeframe and hone the strategies and particularly sizing more specifically to timeframe scales.


----------



## The Edge

Tuesday  6 January 2009

> Possibly a topic in its own right - how does publicly expressing a viewpoint
> on a stock affect trading psychology around it.

No issue is ever too small if it leads to improvement in some manner.  As a standing
rule, I never discuss trades I am in for the simple reason that whatever I say
may be rationalization to support my position v taking a purely objective POV,
as though that were easy in itself.  

That is what happened to me this morning.  I looked at two day's trading activity and saw 
decent volume, but price not continuing down, in fact holding.
That was the message of the market, but I chose to give it more room in deference
to what I had been posting here.  I ignored my instinct in favor of making a 
point, and as a consequence, missed making a more salient point at lower levels.

I allowed a good trade to become mediocre, at best.


re: knowing the trend being traded,

> This is a very good point and its something I've realised I need to take on 
> board more given that the options positions I'm trading are quite long term 
> trend positions, but I'm trading them with mostly short dated series and 
> adjusting short term around volatility and short term direction. I've got  
> strategies for dealing with spikes, congestions and counter trends but I 
> could work more on structuring my viewpoint on timeframe and hone the 
> strategies and particularly sizing more specifically to timeframe scales.  

If you were to take a look at each time frame, starting with a Quarterly, and
assessing the trend, as well as support/resistance points for each, and then
focus most on your chosen time frame, you are likely to benefit from the spikes 
and congestion areas on which you rely for action.

Once you have a full picture of all time frames, it takes little time to keep an
awareness of broader support/resistance as the smaller time frames unfold within
their scope.  The greater the flow you see, the better the odds of a favorable
outcome, all things of which are you aware, but perhaps not as organized as would
benefit your style.  Having an edge in every trade should be a given without
compromise.

Just a few added thoughts.

Continued success to you.


----------



## refined silver

Whiskers said:


> ....That would likely send the POG quite a bit lower. The question then is, which way is the greater trend developing.





Another one of the technical possibilities, a long term chart, but not necessarily a long term wait.


----------



## The Edge

Wednesday  8 January 2009

Just to button down my monologue on gold re defining and then acting on market
activity, a protective stop has been placed on the other half of the short position
from Monday.  While I said the first signal to go short was a week ago Monday, 
and the second on Friday past, I did not take action on that first signal.

Maximizing gains is less important to me than is minimizing risk.  It provides
staying power.

While it seems gold could continue to work lower, I see its inability to push
through the high 830s.  It may yet give way?  Plus, I am mindful that gold was one
 of the few performers for 2008 that actually closed higher on the year.

Cheers.


----------



## The Edge

Neglected to say buy stop at 851.


----------



## Naked shorts

refined silver said:


> Another one of the technical possibilities, a long term chart, but not necessarily a long term wait.




mmmmm my favorite, the good ol'cup and handle


----------



## explod

The resistance of $US840 in late 07 now forms part of strong support and all other indications to me say it will hold these levels.   We are now looking for a weekly close above US880 to 890 for the next upleg to commence.

IMHO it will be soon and as I have maintained for eight months now, after the new administration takes over.

Jimmy Carter got the cuts for the sins of his predecessors and Obama will get the same.   Stand back for the bad news after 20th instant.


----------



## Naked shorts

explod said:


> The resistance of $US840 in late 07 now forms part of strong support and all other indications to me say it will hold these levels.   We are now looking for a weekly close above US880 to 890 for the next upleg to commence.
> 
> IMHO it will be soon and as I have maintained for eight months now, after the new administration takes over.
> 
> Jimmy Carter got the cuts for the sins of his predecessors and Obama will get the same.   Stand back for the bad news after 20th instant.




I thought that everyone is pretty confident that Obama will make everything better again. Im expecting this move up to happen when the reality kicks in (a few weeks after his inauguration).


----------



## explod

explod said:


> The resistance of $US840 in late 07 now forms part of strong support and all other indications to me say it will hold these levels.   We are now looking for a weekly close above US880 to 890 for the next upleg to commence.
> 
> IMHO it will be soon and as I have maintained for eight months now, after the new administration takes over.
> 
> Jimmy Carter got the cuts for the sins of his predecessors and Obama will get the same.   Stand back for the bad news after 20th instant.





Further to the post yesterday, remembered overnight that the $US 850 area was about the closing high in 1979/80 and became resistance on two further occasions in 1980.

The US dollar index is the other point of interest.    At the current .82 it sits at the same level as it did in late 2007 when gold broke above the $US 840 area.   The index has hit this level in the last couple of days and is falling back.   My view is that these factors, taken together, are bullish for gold going forward, and yes the new President my well herald the event.


----------



## Naked shorts

explod said:


> Further to the post yesterday, remembered overnight that the $US 850 area was about the closing high in 1979/80 and became resistance on two further occasions in 1980.
> 
> The US dollar index is the other point of interest.    At the current .82 it sits at the same level as it did in late 2007 when gold broke above the $US 840 area.   The index has hit this level in the last couple of days and is falling back.   My view is that these factors, taken together, are bullish for gold going forward, and yes the new President my well herald the event.




...not to mention that a Merrill Lynch exec said that its wealthy private investors are buying up gold instead of paper assets.


----------



## boyley

Has anyone got some evidence that gold and copper are linear, just curious as copper is surging as we speak


----------



## Naked shorts

boyley said:


> Has anyone got some evidence that gold and copper are linear, just curious as copper is surging as we speak




I would think not boyley. if copper going because of increased demand. that would mean companies have a good economic outlook, good economic outlook means less demand for gold.


----------



## boyley

Naked shorts said:


> I would think not boyley. if copper going because of increased demand. that would mean companies have a good economic outlook, good economic outlook means less demand for gold.




Fair enough, so I will stay with my copper futures for now then.


----------



## MRC & Co

Naked shorts said:


> I would think not boyley. if copper going because of increased demand. that would mean companies have a good economic outlook, good economic outlook means less demand for gold.




Good economic outlook also means inflationary pressures = demand for gold.    I think Wayne said it best in another thread, don't just check your brain at the gate.  Every scenario calls for a different approach.  No scenario is exactly the same as previously.


----------



## bankit

boyley said:


> Has anyone got some evidence that gold and copper are linear, just curious as copper is surging as we speak




Hi Boyley,

It might have something to do with the US Index rebalancing?
http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/255006/here_comes_the_commodity_index_rebalancing

In part the article reads:

The weightings for both indices are released ahead of time, but begin to kick in the first few working days of the new year. In the case of the DJ-AIGCI ”” which JP Morgan estimates has $25bn in funds tracking it ”” the new weightings come into force during the roll period that begins January 9th. The S&P GSCI index weightings kick-in after its January roll which commences January 8th. JP Morgan estimates about $50 bn of investment into that index… Accordingly, JP Morgan sees the most significant change coming in the DJ-AIGCI rebalance. Here the market weight of crude oil is expected to increase from 9.6 per cent to 13.8 per cent, gold from 10.8 per cent to 7.9 per cent, copper (COMEX) from 4.5 per cent to 7.3 per cent, live cattle from 6.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent and sugar from 4.7 per cent to 3.0 per cent. Meanwhile, S&P GSCI crude oil weight will go from 32 per cent to 33.8 per cent…Nevertheless, gold tanked on Monday on expectation of a weighting reduction of gold in the DJ-AIGCI Index …This harkens memories of July 2006 when Goldman greatly reduced the weighting of gasoline, which precipitated a huge collapse in gasoline prices ahead of the 2006 midterm elections.

Bankit


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Good economic outlook also means inflationary pressures = demand for gold.    I think Wayne said it best in another thread, don't just check your brain at the gate.  Every scenario calls for a different approach.  No scenario is exactly the same as previously.




::
it takes a while for inflation to hit after good a "good economic outlook" sentiment is reached.
...but you provide a very good point.


----------



## Page

Gold prices cannot say where it is heading. The world market conditions are getting worse. This is affecting the prices of gold too. We can see the prices of Crude oil getting worse day by day. This has affected the economical conditions of US and the market status is getting worse.


----------



## Naked shorts

Page said:


> Gold prices cannot say where it is heading.




Last I checked people flock to gold when times are bad


----------



## explod

> Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety
> Merrill Lynch has revealed that some of its richest clients are so alarmed by the state of the financial system and signs of political instability around the world that they are now insisting on the purchase of gold bars, shunning derivatives or "paper" proxies.
> 
> By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
> Last Updated: 10:32AM GMT 09 Jan 2009
> 
> Rich investors are spurning gold exchange traded funds in favour of krugerrands.
> Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer for the US bank, said there has been a remarkable change in sentiment. "People are genuinely worried about what the world is going to look like in 2009. It is amazing how many clients want physical gold, not ETFs," he said, referring to exchange trade funds listed in London, New York, and other bourses.
> 
> "They are so worried they want a portable asset in their house. I never thought I would be getting calls from clients saying they want a box of krugerrands," he said.
> 
> Merrill predicted that gold would soon blast through its all time-high of $1,030 an ounce, and would hit $1,150 by June.
> 
> The metal should do well whatever happens. If deflation sets in and rocks the economic system it will serve as a safe-haven, but if massive monetary stimulus gains traction and sets off inflation once again it will also come into its own as a store of value. "It's win-win either way," said Mr Dugan.
> 
> He added that deflation may prove the greater risk in coming months. "It's very difficult to get the deflation psychology out of the human brain once prices start falling. People stop buying things because they think it will be cheaper if they wait."
> 
> Merrill expects global inflation to hover near zero, with rates of minus 1pc in the industrial economies. This means that yields on AAA sovereign bonds now at 3pc will offer a real return of 4pc a year, which is stellar in this grim climate. "Don't start selling your government bonds," Mr Dugan said, dismissing talk of a bond bubble as misguided.
> 
> He warned that the eurozone was likely to come under strain this year as slump deepens. "There is going to be friction as governments in the south start talking politically about coming out of the euro.
> I don't see the tensions in Greece as a one-off. It is a sign of social strain in countries that have lost competitiveness."




Yes it is the only show in town now.

I am often wrong, but, we indeed live in interesting times


----------



## uzumaki

check out www.theinflationist.com - they subscribe to the hyperinflatino theory and are stocking up on gold too! it just seems too easy though, so many goldbugs, who is gonna lose money if everyones buying gold?


----------



## explod

uzumaki said:


> check out www.theinflationist.com - they subscribe to the hyperinflatino theory and are stocking up on gold too! it just seems too easy though, so many goldbugs, who is gonna lose money if everyones buying gold?





Gold is a very scarce product.   At this time only .005% of the total investment pool is into gold(Actually that figure has probably changed since the contraction of assets over the last 6 months, and as many on here know, the fabricators cannot keep up to the demand for 30 kilo bars for the wealthy.

Anyway, almost no one is into gold compared to the bigger picture.  If only a further .005% got interested in gold it would go through the roof because it is so scarce.   Imagine what would happen if 1% became interested.   It is just these dynamics of supply and demand and then add sentiment towards it and ....bbaaaannngggg...

Yes there will be a day when gold blows off its top and it will be time to get out.   When it reached a peak in 1980 there were a number of opportunities to cash out at a good price.   I look forward to the day but we have a long way to go yet, you can be sure that the current financial system will still have a few cards up its sleeve to hoodwink the sheeple for awhile yet..


----------



## Page

Gold is a very limited product. It is true that this time only .005% of the total investment is into gold. Leaving the bigger pictures, no one is involved in gold trading. Imagine if only .005% of people go for gold trading what will happen if few people get interested for it. Seeing the present conditions of gold one cannot imagine were is gold heading. Small investors are not seeing any suitable price for trading this product.


----------



## explod

> In the US, Merrill Lynch is predicting that $US Gold will hit a new all time high (above the $US 1030 intraday high it hit in March 2008) "soon" and will reach $US 1150 by June. Increasingly, customers are insisting on buying physical Gold and are shunning Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The median prediction from US analysts is for Gold to average $US 910 an ounce in 2009. Predictions ranged from a high of $US 1200 to a low of $US 780. Given the fact that Gold closed 2008 at a spot future closing price of $US 884.30, the median is a conservative estimate.
> 
> On another front, the global hedge book of producing Gold mines had fallen to 585 tonnes at the end of June 2008. That is the lowest total since 1987, the year when Gold plummeted, falling below $US 300 by the end of the year on its way to the $US 250 lows it hit in 1999 and almost duplicated in 2001.
> 
> And then there is Gold's major "competitor", the US Dollar and US Treasury debt. Many analysts both inside and outside the US are pointing to the HUGE borrowing requirements of the US government over the coming year as the straw that will finally break the US Dollar's back. The Office of Management and Budget has already predicted a 2008-09 fiscal year deficit of more than $US 1 TRILLION, and that does NOT take into account the Obama "stimulus" package universally expected to be somewhere between $US 800 Billion and $US 1.25 TRILLION more. As far as US Treasuries are concerned, Barrons' cover story in their first issue of 2008 was headlined "Get Out Now!" Get out of what? Get out of the "bubble" (Barrons' description) which is the market for US Treasury debt. As one sign of trouble for US Treasuries, Barrons cited: "...the resilient price of gold which has risen $150 an ounce since late October despite weakness in most commodity prices."
> 
> We cannot remember the start of any year since the US Dollar and Gold were divorced in 1971 when more people were more "bullish" on the prospect for Gold over the year to come. It is disquieting, to say the least.
> 
> Given any amount of comprehension of what is now going on in global financial and political circles in general and the US in particular, it would be very difficult NOT to be "bullish" on Gold. Even if this comprehension was lacking, the mere fact that Gold weathered the commodities bloodbath of the second half of 2008 so much better than anything else is a powerful mark in its favour. On an annual basis, Gold was outperformed by only two other "investments" inside the US over the year just ended. One was the US Dollar itself. The other was US Treasury debt paper.
> 
> What is even more interesting is that there is an even bigger chorus than the one in favour of Gold circulating today. This is the chorus warning of the great danger of holding US Dollars and Treasury debt paper in the face of the unprecedented funding demands that the US government will be putting forward this year. Again, this caution is well founded.
> 
> As we pointed out here last week, 2008 was the ninth year in the past decade during which the $US "price" of Gold has gone up. But 2008 stands alone because it was the first year since the $US Gold bull market got underway in 2002 during which Gold has gone up in the face of a deflationary bloodbath with $US TRILLIONS being wiped off the valuations of "assets" of all descriptions. 2008 was the year in which Gold proved beyond doubt its quality of preserving purchasing power in the face of ANY type of financial and/or monetary chaos.
> 
> Ever since we began these reports well over a decade ago, and long before that in The Privateer, we have been urging the ownership of Gold. The fundamental reason to own Gold is not as an "investment", after all, money is not an investment. Gold should be held primarily as financial "insurance".




Above courtesy "the privateer newsletter"

I have grave fears for my family and friends,  Glad that I saw a lot of it coming but must admit I did not honestly think it would be(financially be so succint) so sudden and deadly as it is in fact playing out.


----------



## uzumaki

thanks for that article. enlightening indeed. have been buying gold companies, but not gold itself or the etf. how are you guys buying gold?


----------



## Whiskers

Still looking at a bit more of a fall in the POG I think before it bottoms out this leg. 

I suspect the main trigger atm is the potentially huge rescue package Obama is talking about. If it comes to full fruition it likely will cause some inflationary expectations in the short term.

The USDX still looks like it will recover .84ish in the next few weeks which seems to gel with this scenario.

I've used this chart again for clarity, as opposed to my cluttered trading chart, and also I find this one gives better big picture analysis.

On the weekly spot chart we had an evening star almost formed a few months back that didn't quite make it on my trading chart either, but this week there is an evening star on both, (although the numbers are a little different).

Obviously the evening star is not at the main peak, but even on these minor peaks we usually get at least a few candles of reversal.


----------



## sinner

uzumaki said:


> how are you guys buying gold?




Hi uzumaki, there is a "buying gold" thread, check it out. Beware the goldbugs, gold threads have a tendency to bring them out of the woodwork 

As with all other investments, DYOR, never trust the goldbugs!



> Still looking at a bit more of a fall in the POG I think before it bottoms out this leg.
> 
> I suspect the main trigger atm is the potentially huge rescue package Obama is talking about. If it comes to full fruition it likely will cause some inflationary expectations in the short term.
> 
> The USDX still looks like it will recover .84ish in the next few weeks which seems to gel with this scenario.
> 
> I've used this chart again for clarity, as opposed to my cluttered trading chart, and also I find this one gives better big picture analysis.
> 
> On the weekly spot chart we had an evening star almost formed a few months back that didn't quite make it on my trading chart either, but this week there is an evening star on both, (although the numbers are a little different).
> 
> Obviously the evening star is not at the main peak, but even on these minor peaks we usually get at least a few candles of reversal.




Thanks for the continued analysis Whiskers, much appreciated. Even though I read 5 or 6 different gold T/A and EW analysis on a weekly basis already it's nice to have an ASFers take on it.

I decided to not take profit on my gold miners, even though all had increased 25-55% from Nov lows when I went long. Prefer to buy-hold-bottom-drawer them as I feel they are all quality stocks rather than seeking short term profits.

Instead have taken out a small short position on the mini contract Spot Gold CFD on IG Markets, entry at 855.8 with a stop placed at 867. 

I figure it should be a nice hedge, if gold price is pushed above recent intraday highs the gold miners will continue their brisk upward pace. Otherwise if technical factors take over from macro factors and we see a drop into the 700s short on gold should cover any short term losses.

As always my goal is simply to beat inflation by 2-3% re:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/secret-to-investment-longevity.html


----------



## jackson8

morning all

just an article i have just read from news.au site
may be of interest to some

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24894346-462,00.html


----------



## lydonchandra

Just curious, according to explod (article#6091), it's a win-win situation if we go long on gold now.
1. If the economy tanks, then it's a safe haven, 
2. and if the stimulus works, inflation will go up and people buy gold.

Wouldn't the demand for gold will be reduced if the stimulus works ?  
I am looking from the risk-aversion side here, where people will take higher risk and jump back into other commodities and equities. Or am I missing something?


----------



## amory

_<<  2. and if the stimulus works, inflation will go up and people buy gold. >>_

I too entertain some doubts about this simplified formula.  if the stimulus works, should be good for the dollar.  never mind inflation, its the dollar that holds the key to the POG.  in an inverted sense of course.

IF the new admin is successful ... note big IF ... then the future of gold is not all that exciting.  in the near term anyway.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

if the stimulus works it will have a positive impact on the dollar.

what is known, that the stimulus itself will be bad for the dollar.

weighing up the cross effect of those two things will provide the answer.


----------



## Dangerous

uzumaki said:


> thanks for that article. enlightening indeed. have been buying gold companies, but not gold itself or the etf. how are you guys buying gold?




GOLD is a preference share - equal to a tenth of an ounce.  It seems a good way to get into gold to me.  Not a fan of the producers due to the lag in converting any price rises into profits.

BTW - check out kitco.com for some good pro-gold analysis.

Good luck and go for gold


----------



## lydonchandra

IMHO, buying or selling companies such as Lihir Gold, Sino Gold, or even Newcrest Mining seem to amplify the movement of the gold price itself. A few percent movement in gold price might correspond to 10%-20% of the share price of the companies...
The share price of Lihir gold, which has surged from the low of $1.6 up to $3.1 a few days ago, can be an example...


----------



## Page

Gold price is still uncertain cannot say were it is heading. It might also take the upper trend or reverse back. People are still uncertain about it. There are varieties of news in the market about gold. However, no one is able to give proper news about it.


----------



## bankit

lydonchandra said:


> IMHO, buying or selling companies such as Lihir Gold, Sino Gold, or even Newcrest Mining seem to amplify the movement of the gold price itself. A few percent movement in gold price might correspond to 10%-20% of the share price of the companies...
> The share price of Lihir gold, which has surged from the low of $1.6 up to $3.1 a few days ago, can be an example...




Hi lydonchandra,

Go to my post of 20th December for an explanation and a reinforcement of your thoughts.

Bankit


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy oh Boy. Those pesky Manipulators are giving the Cumber Rumba to gold


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy oh Boy. Those pesky Manipulators are giving the Cumber Rumba to gold




LOL - not looking pretty for longs right now is it.   Watch for the short covering though


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> LOL - not looking pretty for longs right now is it.   Watch for the short covering though




Yep she's a high vol open. It will be the highest vol hour for this contract.Ya wanna get your VSA out on that one. Just might be the reversal pattern needed. :


----------



## BentRod

dhkjashdihafihaf!

Always happens when I'm not home.


----------



## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep she's a high vol open. It will be the highest vol hour for this contract.Ya wanna get your VSA out on that one. Just might be the reversal pattern needed. :




 I can't see volume on the gold charts I look at (the highly advanced platform of browing the kitco web site ... ).   (which is probably a good thing ... a futures trading platform in my hands would be a recipe for the bread line, I'll leave that to yourself and the other experienced hands).


----------



## GumbyLearner

Looks like a consistent morning smackdown for the NY am.


----------



## cuttlefish

There must be some bad financial news coming for the US.   They push the price down when they know there is some bad news imminent.  Maybe there's going to be another financial iceberg unveiled ...    (gee I've really caught onto this gold bug paranoia theme now - I'll be applying for GATA membership soon at this rate ).


----------



## BentRod

This price action might confirm the third lower high for Gold on the dailies. Does not look good if that is the case IMO.

Should have taken the short cue from that news article but I was still waiting for Bean to roll up. :


----------



## GumbyLearner

cuttlefish said:


> There must be some bad financial news coming for the US.   They push the price down when they know there is some bad news imminent.  Maybe there's going to be another financial iceberg unveiled ...    (gee I've really caught onto this gold bug paranoia theme now - I'll be applying for GATA membership soon at this rate ).




The drop in price today does look sudden maybe somethings up! :dunno:
I try to keep abreast of a lot of the diehard gold advocates but I can see where GATA is coming from when you look at volume COMEX contracts, backwardation etc..  

The attached chart from the US FED does appear salient for now though


----------



## BentRod

Wonder if it has legs?

On board XAU/USD from 827 with tight stops.


----------



## BentRod

Out at B.E.

Interested to see what happens from here...Fiber looking ready to fall out of bed too.


----------



## The Edge

Monday 12 January 2009

Just as knowledge of the trend is indispensable, repeating the following conjecture 
from cuttlefish is equally important:

> Possibly a topic in its own right - how does publicly expressing a viewpoint 
> on a stock affect trading psychology around it. (actually I've seen WaneL 
> post a subsection of Murphy's Law about posting live's trades - tends to 
> ring true some of the time).

In attempting to handle a trade in gold, while at the same time providing an
ongoing explanantion re marketactivity, I shot myself in the foot and exited from
an excellent short position.  Since, I did get back in, advantageously, but 
without commentary here so as not to interfere with the position.  Gold
continues to act as expected from my original premise for going short.

I could see the market developing, and there was nothing wrong with the activity
to cause alarm, but, as Shakespeare says, "Thinking makes is so," and my
thinking, as expressed here, put clouds in my coffee.

Our brains are enormously complex and extraordinarily capable in processing
information, equal to, or surpassing that of a computer.  By articulating the
whys and wherefores, it requires a stoppage of the free flow of thought in
order to put the thinking into cohesive sentence structures.

Once I cleared myself of the task explaining ongoing market activity in post
format, I was able to let my thought process flow unencumbered and rely upon
natural instinct, that which is too fast, occuring in instants, as flashes, yet
sufficient to give the brain faculties enough to go on and reach a decision
without being able to express it in words.  Call it what one will, gut instinct,
inspiration, etc, it works when left unimpeded.

Discussing one's trades, positions, reasoning, etc, short-circuits that process.
Leave well enough alone, and tend to the business at hand.

It is for this reason that I never ask anyone's opinion about a trade.  The asking, 
in itself, already creates a seed of doubt, in a subtle way.

One person's opinion.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Sound better than Pink Floyd...

Pink Floyd warned people these guys, dont need too!



Who is the fool in this economic calamity?


----------



## sinner

Woke up at midday to a pleasant surprise, my gold short worth more than the drop in my miner shares!

So how do we feel about tonight guys? More strength from the USD to come? Or other currencies due for a bit of a bounce?


----------



## boyley

sinner said:


> Woke up at midday to a pleasant surprise, my gold short worth more than the drop in my miner shares!
> 
> So how do we feel about tonight guys? More strength from the USD to come? Or other currencies due for a bit of a bounce?




The way the US dollar is holding up amongst the ravaneous money printing is quite astounding.  I got bumped out of gold at $845 and will get back in once Obama signs on.  Something's gotta give here and its going to be dramatic to say the least.


----------



## cuttlefish

I'm overall bullish on gold (no secret) but from a technical perspective I wouldn't rule out it coming down to mid 700's sometime between now and roughly mid-march before it begins a move up again.  

That being said it could also just move up dramatically at any time.


----------



## cuttlefish

Was going to add that so far the gold majors (LGL, NCM) are still showing good strength and possibly pointing to the longer term direction - with neither of them reacting too badly today to the overnight gold price falls.


----------



## Naked shorts

boyley said:


> The way the US dollar is holding up amongst the ravaneous money printing is quite astounding.  I got bumped out of gold at $845 and will get back in once Obama signs on.  Something's gotta give here and its going to be dramatic to say the least.




Perhaps its foreign countries buying US debt


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> Was going to add that so far the gold majors (LGL, NCM) are still showing good strength and possibly pointing to the longer term direction - with neither of them reacting too badly today to the overnight gold price falls.




Australian gold price up the last two days the answer here.   Huge currency change did that.  Today's Herald Sun reports, "local gold down" with the US price quoted.  Only buy the rubbish on a Wednesday, you would think a major circulating rag would get this right in the business sector.

Anyway, no one pays attention to gold which will be the greater for us bugs when they do.   Notice $US index below the hourly ta for the first time since Friday.   Wednesday's most often the turning points on the Comex.  We'll see.


----------



## amory

it is unreasonable to expect any excitement from Gold when the Fed is quite obviously determined to keep the Dollar intact.  the following is out of today's Bloomberg:

_<< Gold prices fell to a five-week low as gains by the dollar eroded the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also dropped. 
...............................
‘Flight to Quality’ 

“The Treasury market is where people have gone,” Zeman said. “It’s a flight-to-quality day, and people want to get out of everything.” 
.............................
“The greenback’s rally has further to run, and it is not the bounce of a cat in rigor mortis,” said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Inc. in Montreal. “The question is: How much cash will some wish to raise to head for the hills with?”  >>_

*Flight to Quality *... he's talking about the Dollar ... what do you know?


----------



## Naked shorts

amory said:


> it is unreasonable to expect any excitement from Gold when the Fed is quite obviously determined to keep the Dollar intact.




Do you think it will stay intact when the US has to start paying off its debt? Give it a year, things will get interesting.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Naked shorts said:


> Do you think it will stay intact when the US has to start paying off its debt? Give it a year, things will get interesting.




I agree NS.

Notice John Nadlers latest comment

"The greenback's rally has further to run, and it is not the bounce of a cat in rigor mortis,'' said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Inc. in Montreal.

...ok? Who ya gunna call?


----------



## xcelwealth

Gold "could emerge" and, in fact, IS emerging 

Woes on Wall Street coincide with gold coin rush US Mint labors to meet
demand as investors buy up assets they can hold in their hands.

The fact that gold is nobody else's liability was really an extremely
important trait for investors in Q3 that were growing increasingly
mistrustful of financial institutions in general.

All comments will be highly appreciated

How can I help you?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Naked shorts said:


> Do you think it will stay intact when the US has to start paying off its debt? Give it a year, things will get interesting.




My timespan for the next phase is months. The Fed is disintegrating right now, with open criticism & dissent from within on what Bernanke is doing. Things are about to get parabolically worse for the world, and Aus won't be immune.

Which means that we will get the double - falling AUS/USD to under 50c and rising $US gold price = $AU gold price over $2k - about the time the Obama factor wears off and every one realises not even He can save them?

Interest rates are effectively zero bound now so the financial creativity about to be experimented with by Bernanke & Paulson has never been used before, within the current set of conditions ie a total collapse of the global financial capitalist system.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/money_supply_011320093

Talking about parabolics, interesting to note that Money supply took off immediatly after the link with gold was broken?


----------



## amory

<< ...a total collapse of the global financial capitalist system. >>

I am sure I have across that phrase before ... maybe a hundred times or more.  but it seems to be still around.  and it is a safe bet that until such a total collapse of the global financial capitalist system actually does happen, there is little hope for a significant upsurge in Gold.


----------



## Naked shorts

Uncle Festivus said:


> My timespan for the next phase is months. The Fed is disintegrating right now, with open criticism & dissent from within on what Bernanke is doing. Things are about to get parabolically worse for the world, and Aus won't be immune.
> 
> Which means that we will get the double - falling AUS/USD to under 50c and rising $US gold price = $AU gold price over $2k - about the time the Obama factor wears off and every one realises not even He can save them?
> 
> Interest rates are effectively zero bound now so the financial creativity about to be experimented with by Bernanke & Paulson has never been used before, within the current set of conditions ie a total collapse of the global financial capitalist system.
> 
> http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/money_supply_011320093
> 
> Talking about parabolics, interesting to note that Money supply took off immediatly after the link with gold was broken?




That graph is BS uncle. They cant possibly accurately know the M3 money supply because the fed stopped reporting it back in 2005.

Its also expected that the money supply would grow since the removal of the gold standard. Thats why they got rid of it in the first place.

The problem here, which started 25 years ago, was the growth fueled debt. The US government supported this debt through quasi-government insitutions like freddie mac, fannie mae, and ginnie mae.


----------



## Page

It is true that no one is sure where Gold heading is. This indicates that in future there might be some crucial conditions in the market, which might take time to recover and that time we can see once again a clash.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

amory said:


> << ...a total collapse of the global financial capitalist system. >>
> 
> I am sure I have across that phrase before ... maybe a hundred times or more. but it seems to be still around. and it is a safe bet that until such a total collapse of the global financial capitalist system actually does happen, there is little hope for a significant upsurge in Gold.




.... well, that's just it, they are not still around, and more will follow. One by one the stalwarts of capitalism have & are falling, only the insiders will survive? And GM will soon be back for another lifeline........

The show will be over if you wait for confirmation, as if there isn't already compelling data to suggest a severe global recession is already here at least, and we're not even half way by my reckoning.

Gold is still consolidating from the previous $1k peak. You have to be patient with gold.


----------



## Naked shorts

Naked shorts said:


> The problem here, which started 25 years ago, was the growth fueled debt.




Change that to "debt fueled growth" 

I really should get more sleep


----------



## Glen48

Gold could drop to $600, buy more, wait until the Bond market and B.O. party is over and enjoy the ride up.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Glen48 said:


> Gold could drop to $600, buy more, wait until the Bond market and B.O. party is over and enjoy the ride up.




possible..no probable..likely. Long term I hold in this environment!


----------



## drillinto

GFMS Ltd: Annual Gold Survey-2008

http://www.im-mining.com/2009/01/15/gfms-publishes-gold-survey-2008-update-2/#more-1348


----------



## GumbyLearner

Page said:


> It is true that no one is sure where Gold heading is. This indicates that in future there might be some crucial conditions in the market, which might take time to recover and that time we can see once again a clash.




You know what Page your absolutely right I have no idea where gold will go.
The crucial conditions are what scare the hell out of me! Value! What are the crucial conditions that you are refering to? What I'm trying to say is its YOUR position to debunk any theory you want?? Thats OK but at least throw up a chart,graph,pictogram,stratified sample,representation...that every regular visitor to this thread would really appreciate to see.. otherwise take a LONG jump off a SHORT pier..No capitalization pun intended..unless your..willing to back up your argument with something logically and rationally considerable?  Totally crazy right!..but ACCOUNTABLE AT THE SAME TIME!


----------



## Naked shorts

GumbyLearner said:


> You know what Page your absolutely right I have no idea where gold will go.
> The crucial conditions are what scare the hell out of me! Value! What are the crucial conditions that you are refering to? What I'm trying to say is its YOUR position to debunk any theory you want?? Thats OK but at least throw up a chart,graph,pictogram,stratified sample,representation...that every regular visitor to this thread would really appreciate to see.. otherwise take a LONG jump off a SHORT pier..No capitalization pun intended..unless your..willing to back up your argument with something logically and rationally considerable?  Totally crazy right!..but ACCOUNTABLE AT THE SAME TIME!




You took the word right out of my mouth


----------



## explod

Currently out of gold stocks but have been very tempted to get into LGL the last few days.

I am stopped by the precarious and volatile currencies and markets.   It has become clear that gold stocks are sold off heavily when the markets fall and the trend is down at this time.   The US dollar is holding up very strongly which is also supressing the gold price.   This could change quickly but have noticed the Comex period of trade puts gold down hard at these times too.

The Dow has been moving lower the last week on the daily and is approaching the low of November last year under which there is little support for it till 4000.   This critical point could be reached when the new US President is sworn in next week.   A large collapse will be a wipeout to all stocks in my view.

Interesting times but one for caution IMHO


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Explod, I think gold equities are actually leading gold for once. They are a fair way higher (at least the ones I track) than the lows back in November. The worry for me is that gold is looking too correlated to the Dow for some reason, even to the tick. But I also sense some resilience and support for gold equities so it will be interesting to see how much collateral damage the goldies have when the next pleb shares sell off gets under way?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> The worry for me is that gold is looking too correlated to the Dow for some reason, even to the *tick*.




Have noticed/played that too Uncle.


----------



## arco

Action is still stuck in a Broadening Wedge


----------



## Stormin_Norman

US inflation figures tonight. thatll have an effect on gold.


----------



## MRC & Co

Stormin_Norman said:


> US inflation figures tonight. thatll have an effect on gold.




Higher than expected inflation, lower gold?    News doesn't mean much at the moment.


----------



## So_Cynical

Uncle Festivus said:


> Explod, I think gold equities are actually leading gold for once. They are a fair way higher (at least the ones I track) than the lows back in November.




Every single producer has bounced at least 50% ~ some were over 100% 
(2 weeks ago) up off there Oct-Nov lows....even OGC has bounced at last.


----------



## amory

explod said:


> Currently out of gold stocks but have been very tempted to get into LGL the last few days.
> 
> I am stopped by the precarious and volatile currencies and markets.   It has become clear that gold stocks are sold off heavily when the markets fall and the trend is down at this time.   The US dollar is holding up very strongly which is also supressing the gold price.   This could change quickly but have noticed the Comex period of trade puts gold down hard at these times too.
> 
> The Dow has been moving lower the last week on the daily and is approaching the low of November last year under which there is little support for it till 4000.   This critical point could be reached when the new US President is sworn in next week.   A large collapse will be a wipeout to all stocks in my view.
> 
> Interesting times but one for caution IMHO




hi Explod.  are you suggesting that there will be a large collapse of the Dow when the new president is sworn in?  isn't the general concensus that the market will be optimistic & firming, for a while at least?  I do believe that you are being unduly pessimistic.

I understand the reasoning, just finding it hard to share the conclusions.  the following is out of Gold World, they would be on your side.
.................................
_<< Not only is January 20th the day the 44th U.S. President gets sworn into the White House -- it's also the day that a record-breaking stimulus bill starts pumping its way through congress.

The estimated $850 billion worth of Monopoly money they want to dish out to Americans on a single day is more money than the government spends in an entire year.

When the bill passes -- topped with bailouts to virtually everyone filling out a form -- the U.S. dollar will experience its largest drop in decades...

... Which will in turn crank the price of gold to historic new levels. 

And for investors who loaded up in the precious metal before the spike... Well, they're awaiting what could be the single largest payday of their lives. >>_
.....................................

my own interpretation is this: for the price of gold to crank to historic new levels, would first require massive collapse of the USDollar ... we're all agreed on that.  the question then arises, will the enormous bailouts cause such a collapse?  somehow, I feel that the new team would have already got plans in place to prevent such a disaster.  they'd be irresponsible not to!

you are saying: "A large collapse will be a wipeout to all stocks in my view."  sparing nothing, gold stocks included.  we've seen that happening in the past.  but myself, still inclined to see a wave of optimism ahead.  based on dreams, maybe?  the american dream.  too early to say.  we'll know in a few days time.


----------



## amory

let me just add that in Money & Markets, Jack Crooks offers ...

_"... a sure argument for why the U.S. dollar is in a position to appreciate ... despite the global recession."_

if he's right, one would imagine that its goodbye gold.  check it out at: MONEYANDMARKETS » 
Saturday, January 17, 2009


----------



## sinner

I am not so sure about USD collapse at this point.

Banks are getting huge amounts of TARP money and Fed Fund Rate 0-0.5% money and parking it ALL in long yield Treasuries for 2-3%. 

As long as this demand keeps up (and frankly why would it stop at this point) USD will stay high. The amount of Fed Fund Rate money in the banks is huge, tens of trillions $850b will not even be a drop in that pond.

The high for all currencies against the USD (incl Gold) was clearly when AUD was at 0.97 and Gold at 1000. 

Banks all over the world used to invest long gold and oil short USD. I think we will now see a reversal of this long term trend with strong USD for plenty of time to come. 

I am still a rabid fan of gold despite all this, I think it will remain strong regardless of USD strength due to its own fundamental reasons and people will no longer have the misconception of the dollar as the anti-gold. Current international physical gold demand indicates I am not the only one.

Anyone watching the forex markets closely can see that demand for gold during sans New York open hours is high, these markets are happy for their US counterparts in NY to drive down the price so they can gobble it up!


----------



## sinner

amory said:


> you are saying: "A large collapse will be a wipeout to all stocks in my view."  sparing nothing, gold stocks included.  we've seen that happening in the past.  but myself, still inclined to see a wave of optimism ahead.  based on dreams, maybe?  the american dream.  too early to say.  we'll know in a few days time.




On this note I am hoping a fundamental divergence in gold stocks from others now which gives me optimism but explods opinion is nigglingly right to me.

Institutional investors have abandoned most/all of their gold miner stock longs. You can see this in some anns for IGR or similar companies. The price rally in gold miners since then has (I hope and guess) steady hands with a long term outlook. They are not planning on getting out. Spurts of activity on usually very low volume exchange traded options for these miners hopefully confirms this theory.

I doubt these instos will reinvest in the same companies if anything at all. This year clients will be happy with no losses rather than high yield.

We have already seen a few examples of this divergence, since October, on days where indices are way down, gold price is not looking steady, but gold miners held their own or even gained some. Lots of charts look promising for gold miners end of a very long term low! I am inclined to believe this could be the end of a cyclical low. Shares are never worth nothing, the lowest price is 0.001 

To put it simply, this is what I am banking on, but recognise explods possibility as very real too and have not invested anything I am unwilling to lose (that's what physical gold is for  ).


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> On this note I am hoping a fundamental divergence in gold stocks from others now which gives me optimism but explods opinion is nigglingly right to me.





I am thinking more of the short to medium term here.  Sentiment will gradually change but at the moment the big picture financial wizzes are talking up bonds as a safe haven (forget the low yields mind)  I think the Commercial Bonds will also fail down the track but it is sentiment of the herd that rules now.   Staying in cash and pysical is still for me but the next few days will tell us a great deal.

On the bigger state of things for gold the following figures coutesy "the Privateer" newsletter, are worth some contemplation.

"gold  March 2002 US$302     in January 2009  US$839  plus 177%

Dow  March 2002  10427         now    8281    minus    20%"

Gold may not pay any interest but has been a good hedge.   In  the same period the US$ index has dropped 28% also.   Put it all together and it is indeed food for thought.


----------



## Page

explod said:


> I am thinking more of the short to medium term here.  Sentiment will gradually change but at the moment the big picture financial wizzes are talking up bonds as a safe haven (forget the low yields mind)  I think the Commercial Bonds will also fail down the track but it is sentiment of the herd that rules now.   Staying in cash and pysical is still for me but the next few days will tell us a great deal.
> 
> On the bigger state of things for gold the following figures coutesy "the Privateer" newsletter, are worth some contemplation.
> 
> "gold  March 2002 US$302     in January 2009  US$839  plus 177%
> 
> Dow  March 2002  10427         now    8281    minus    20%"
> 
> Gold may not pay any interest but has been a good hedge.   In  the same period the US$ index has dropped 28% also.   Put it all together and it is indeed food for thought.




You are right friend the data you have provided are very true. At present most of the people are not able to predict were gold heading and what is going to be the future of Gold in coming times will it be plus or minus.


----------



## cogs

Looking good! Nice to see some bullish action.


----------



## BentRod

She's gone para again.  

15m XAUUSD :


----------



## GumbyLearner

BentRod said:


> She's gone para again.
> 
> 15m XAUUSD :




Cheers Bent

Yeah should do well especially when you consider the St Louis Fed Monetary Chart (generations to come TO repay) of Jan 08 2009 posted earlier. Inflation is a monetary event yet to be FELT! Sorry just had to add some SNAG commentary there! 

Ohhh! I FEEL so cozy!! utthedoor:


----------



## CanOz

strange move that, the DX is at channel R now....is it playing catch up?

CanOz


----------



## GumbyLearner

D


----------



## Naked shorts

I wasn't expecting this move up at least until after the inauguration.

I guess people have realized that "obama magik" wont work.
Are B-runs a possibility?


----------



## GumbyLearner

I was.


----------



## Naked shorts

GumbyLearner said:


> I was.




Well I hope you made some decent money


----------



## GumbyLearner

Naked shorts said:


> Well I hope you made some decent money




 To be honest I havent made any money yet or lost for that matter! 
And what is money anyway?
A currency? Trade and Sell? Personally, not ready yet! Just waiting for the inevitable conclusion! 

It might not happen overnight, BUT it will HAPPEN! 

Just not a garbage recycler anymore!!


----------



## boyley

Got back in Yesterday around $829 and loaded up nicely.  Wouldnt be suprised to see it retreat below $850 again though.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Which means that we will get the double - falling AUS/USD to under 50c and rising $US gold price = $AU gold price over $2k - about the time the Obama factor wears off and every one realises not even He can save them?




Well that warm & fuzzy feeling with the inauguration "times are changing for the better now Barrack is in charge" hyperebole was short lived - Dow down near 330 odd, and gold, well, standing on it's own in 'credible alternative currency' land. Or maybe 'only credible store of wealth/value left standing' land?

On the cross rates it looks even better, just not sure it will translate into gains for the local producers today, but they have still looked reasonably solid in the face of 100 point drops in the index's and weakness in their pleb shares brothers?

On the Dow, if it repeats the 1st Great Depression, then anywhere sub 5000 is plausible?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well that warm & fuzzy feeling with the inauguration "times are changing for the better now Barrack is in charge" hyperebole was short lived - Dow down near 330 odd, and gold, well, standing on it's own in 'credible alternative currency' land. Or maybe 'only credible store of wealth/value left standing' land?




And you were spot on the other day Uncle, sentiment is changing, though interstingly HUI dropped at the end of trade, was up early, then followed market; so still think that it is to be watched on short term basis when a big fall is likely.   Dow second lowest close since 2003 today.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> And you were spot on the other day Uncle, sentiment is changing, though interstingly HUI dropped at the end of trade, was up early, then followed market; so still think that it is to be watched on short term basis when a big fall is likely.   Dow second lowest close since 2003 today.




So far for the day, my personal selection of gold stocks has regained almost ALL the losses it had over the last few days in one trading session!


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> So far for the day, my personal selection of gold stocks has regained almost ALL the losses it had over the last few days in one trading session!




Good for you.    But for me having regard to the current financial news and a close scrutiny of the DJIA, which I feel is about to fall to 4000 or below I am out.   Purchased GOLD (ASX) a couple of weeks ago and happy with that rise.  A look at the HUI looks like a typical reverse hammer for it as well.   Yep good gains to be had on the daily but a lot can change overnight in this environment.   The US dollar index is shaking like a dying snake as well.


----------



## bankit

Hi Explod,

Have to agree with you, short term the HUI is bearish but with a longer term view I can see a reverse head and shoulder perhaps forming.

Bankit


----------



## Page

Gold cannot say were it heading. It is good to trade in Gold now we can do intraday as well as hold position in gold because it is having both side movements in 2-3 days.


----------



## Naked shorts

bankit said:


> Hi Explod,
> 
> Have to agree with you, short term the HUI is bearish but with a longer term view I can see a reverse head and shoulder perhaps forming.
> 
> Bankit




Looks more like a lower high then a H&S.


----------



## bankit

Hi All,

Spot Gold is at a major resistance but is holding up well with a very tight consolidation in the $857 region.

All relevant details are on the attached chart.

Bankit


----------



## cogs

Will be interesting to see which way this consolidation takes.


----------



## cuttlefish

I liked your first version - somethings going to happen! 

As opposed to the conventional adage in relation to stocks, my view is that gold will go DOWN by the stairs and UP by the elevator.    (it certainly jumped into the elevator for the first part of the evening anyway ).


----------



## boyley

808-875 in 9 days wow


----------



## GumbyLearner

Going berko tonight.

Touched 903


----------



## Uncle Festivus

$100 in 10 days? The inverse H&S has delivered on Q? https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=389186&postcount=140 

Thank you captains of fractional reserve banking...... $1400 aussie.....sub 50c for $AU/$US after RBA interest rates decisions = $2k aussie? Scramble....


----------



## boyley

Uncle Festivus said:


> $100 in 10 days? The inverse H&S has delivered on Q? https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=389186&postcount=140
> 
> Thank you captains of fractional reserve banking...... $1400 aussie.....sub 50c for $AU/$US after RBA interest rates decisions = $2k aussie? Scramble....




Thats the one mate, at 65cents theres a gain to be had on the X rates, one would think.


----------



## cogs

I guess I have my answer, although I will need to know the serious money is behind this break. According to the volume the later half of this break is momentum.

Time to jump on the retracement with a moderate stop for me.


----------



## Sean K

cogs said:


> I guess I have my answer, although I will need to know the serious money is behind this break. According to the volume the later half of this break is momentum.
> 
> Time to jump on the retracement with a moderate stop for me.



I agree. I'm waiting to see it hold above that previous resistane, horizontal around 860, and continued upward support for a long. Those points all seem to converge ish.


----------



## explod

cogs said:


> I guess I have my answer, although I will need to know the serious money is behind this break. According to the volume the later half of this break is momentum.
> 
> Time to jump on the retracement with a moderate stop for me.




Open interest is only at at 57% of the peak last year.

I will maintain my idea that it will be late Feb/march before it really gets a leg up.   But there is some strength in it now.  Got into LGL yesterday and pleased about that.  Its break above $3 will be on on Monday and then this will be a good one.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I will maintain my idea that it will be late Feb/march before it really gets a leg up.   But there is some strength in it now.  Got into LGL yesterday and pleased about that.  Its break above $3 will be on on Monday and then this will be a good one.




Nice hindsight 

looks like stopping vol to me. But i'm as good as a coin toss :


----------



## rederob

There was a view that gold "failed" because it did not push through $1000 as this recession grew and grew.
The reality is that the impact of the global recession is yet to be deeply felt in its severity.
All the while gold has remained robust, and last night's action confirmed that even in times of tight money it can tack on a 6% gain in a trading session.
It will be interesting to see if gold is now "chased" by those seeing a good opportunity when all else around is in tatters.
At least the taxi drivers are giving it a miss for the moment.
My sneaking suspicion is that gold will hit a high this year that will remain in place for a long, long time.


----------



## bankit

rederob said:


> it can tack on a 6% gain in a trading session.



and the HUI tacked on 9%

Bankit


----------



## BentRod

Checking out a few charts tonight and noticed a divergence between Gold and Euro which usually have a reasonable correlation.


----------



## CanOz

There is also divergence on almost all of the USD pairs as well using Stochastic. 

Change of trend at hand Bent?

CanOz


----------



## BentRod

> Change of trend at hand Bent?




Don't know mate but I noticed the divergence coincided with the Panic in the UK and the breakdown of H&S/Diamond type formation on Cable.

Looks like everyone in UK is buying gold?


----------



## Naked shorts

Its not shooting up to $1000 now like it did march last year because now we have jewelers and industry cutting back on their gold use because they now realize the world is in a financial crisis. 

I wonder how far they can cut back


----------



## amory

still not too sure about the dollar/gold relation.  must say that dollar has not been looking too healthy lately.  where & when will the new admin step in to give it some solid support ... to the detriment of gold?  just because it's better than other currencies, does that denote strength?  a collapse of the dollar = green light for gold.  you think the new lot don't know that?


----------



## So_Cynical

Naked shorts said:


> Its not shooting up to $1000 now like it did march last year because now we have jewelers and industry cutting back on their gold use because they now realize the world is in a financial crisis.
> 
> I wonder how far they can cut back




Jewelery demand may be waning...but so to is world production, for the 7th 
consecutive year the falling production trend continues....almost certain to 
fall for the next 3 or 4 as well.

http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12991418

_The output of the world’s gold mines fell by 4% last year, according 
to estimates in a new report from the GFMS...Supply from South Africa, 
once the world’s largest producer, fell by 14%, Australia’s output fell 
by 14%, too._


----------



## explod

Naked shorts said:


> Its not shooting up to $1000 now like it did march last year because now we have jewelers and industry cutting back on their gold use because they now realize the world is in a financial crisis.
> 
> I wonder how far they can cut back




The climb to $1000 last year was gradual at about $US25 per week average, from July 07 till March 08.   Last week gold shot up $US60 dollars, most in the last couple of days and we have a long way till March of this year yet.  The uptrend line is slightly steeper and the process is much more volatile of late.   Jewellers and the general industry have been on the sidelines for some time now, gold is in short supply and people are paying above the paper rpice to get it.   Fabricators around the world and particularly in Switzerland cannot keep up to the demands of the wealthy for gold bullion bars. 

Even our local Herald Sun newspaper has recommended a gold stock today, now that is very bullish indeed.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Even our local Herald Sun newspaper has recommended a gold stock today, now that is very bullish indeed.




I also saw an article last week or maybe the week before clipped by a friend of mine for me in his local paper that was basically just a gold ramp article.

First time you'd have seen that in lord knows how long right? Non goldbugs recommending gold?!
Ignore that though, I never made my decision based on what some doofus in the paper reckons! In fact now that they've mentioned it I am kind of scared!

A real shame markets won't be open tomorrow. Would have been nice to see some strong upward action from the gold miners before the price retraces too far.

Might have to try and catch the retracement with a short on spot after London open tomorrow night? Would like to hear some opinions as to who reckons which market will be responsible for the retracement, I have noticed some strong upward pressure almost every single Tokyo session I have traded since this bad stuff began.



> still not too sure about the dollar/gold relation. must say that dollar has not been looking too healthy lately. where & when will the new admin step in to give it some solid support ... to the detriment of gold? just because it's better than other currencies, does that denote strength? a collapse of the dollar = green light for gold. you think the new lot don't know that?




Of course they know that amory. Aside from being a Fed chairman, president of the NY fed: Paul Volcker was also under-secretary of Treasury until 1974 and played a crucial role in the 1971 depegging of USD:GOLD. 

It is pretty obvious devaluing the countries currency against gold has a stabilising effect on the economy during recessionary periods. Even Bernanke seemed aware of this judging from various comments he has made. 

I'm not sure why you think the new admin will step in and try and put a floor under USD. If anything their stated policy is to return to the "export inflation" days of a steadily trending downward USD. Any too-significant price hikes on the USDX will completely destroy exports as tiny a slice of GDP as they are. With housing construction and consumer consumption about to fall off a very large cliff, they will need all the GDP inputs they can get.

In my opinion they probably can't stop the trend reversal now, they will be 
"exporting deflation" for a long time to come, and this will mean a strong USD whether they like it or not. 

Friday night was a good example of the new trend which I have already mentioned several times, breaking the old and misconception: that gold and USD are inversely correlated. 

I think this bull in major trade currencies (yen, USD, gold, HKD) will continue until things get so rough for exporters that the only option left will be devaluation against gold.


----------



## amory

sinner said:


> ......................
> In my opinion they probably can't stop the trend reversal now, they will be
> "exporting deflation" for a long time to come, and this will mean a strong USD whether they like it or not.
> 
> Friday night was a good example of the new trend which I have already mentioned several times, breaking the old and misconception: that gold and USD are inversely correlated.
> 
> I think this bull in major trade currencies (yen, USD, gold, HKD) will continue until things get so rough for exporters that the only option left will be devaluation against gold.




thank you Sinner.  first of all let me say that I like your reasoning.  where I cannot fully agree, is "...breaking the old and misconception: that gold and USD are inversely correlated."

I might just mention in passing, that I use the dollar/yen chart rather than the UDX for guidance.  a clearcut inverse correlation there!  without wanting to start an argument about the why & wherefores, but whether it is a misconception, still remains to be seen.


----------



## sinner

amory said:


> without wanting to start an argument about the why & wherefores, but whether it is a misconception, still remains to be seen.




Hi again amory, no worries, I am not the argument type over stuff like this, my goal is just to learn so very happy to hear differing opinions.

I am not sure I understand what you mean here, when you say you "use" the usd/jpy chart rather than usdx do you mean that you use usd/jpy vs gold to see the inverse correlation?

If so, can you show us an example chart? I picked a few off finance.yahoo.com and can maybe see what you mean on a few of the charts but also on a few there is clearly low/0 correlation.

2 year, 1 year and 3 month. I can maybe sort of see a long term correlation on the 2y, the 1y I will not use because of extreme volatility on the chart but the 3m shows very low correlation.

EDIT: These charts are just a quick whip off the web,  nothing much to show here, happy for someone to post better examples.

EDIT2: I can maybe see an inverse correlation on the 1y chart starting from Dec 08, but this is a very small data sample!

EDIT3: One thing is very obvious, long gold short USD/JPY would make a great long term trade!


----------



## Cooks

hey all,

first post and thought i might join in on this discussion... in my humble opinion, this year looks to be the year of gold... it should make a new high on the monthly charts i.e. pass the $1000 mark which will then continue to confirm the uptrend on a longer term time frame...

reasons why? Well, considering the market tries to factor in 6 months ahead... my belief is that the US in now running into hyper inflation mode or will eventually... they will need to continue spending billions of dollars in order to help bail out banks, which will translate into hyper inflation some time very soon... what I think will be a shock to everyone is that at some point the inflationary figures will really take off at a much faster rate... another point to the argument is that all other commodities have taken a real hit except gold. As for the US dollar, we could see a collapse as the spending will really get out of control. Projections for gold... $1,200 - $1,500 by the end of this year... Hold your gold ;-)


----------



## sinner

Cooks said:


> hey all,
> 
> first post and thought i might join in on this discussion... in my humble opinion, this year looks to be the year of gold... it should make a new high on the monthly charts i.e. pass the $1000 mark which will then continue to confirm the uptrend on a longer term time frame...
> 
> reasons why? Well, considering the market tries to factor in 6 months ahead... my belief is that the US in now running into hyper inflation mode or will eventually... they will need to continue spending billions of dollars in order to help bail out banks, which will translate into hyper inflation some time very soon... what I think will be a shock to everyone is that at some point the inflationary figures will really take off at a much faster rate... another point to the argument is that all other commodities have taken a real hit except gold. As for the US dollar, we could see a collapse as the spending will really get out of control. Projections for gold... $1,200 - $1,500 by the end of this year... Hold your gold ;-)




Hi Cooks,

There has been plenty of jibber about hyperinflation from the gold bugs for a very long time now. Frankly it belies a misunderstanding of the actual fiscal situation in the US. You base your entire case on the hyperinflation call but give no reasoning why bailouts will translate to hyperinflation "some time very soon". When is very soon? 

Another point I take exception to is the constant referral to gold as a commodity. Gold trades on the currency desks at most major brokers, it has an international currency code and is held in reserves by banks internationally. I don't know any banks who hold coffee, nickel and gas futures in reserve.

Can we stop comparing gold to commods and patting ourselves on the back for the lack of relative drop? Oil is really the only commodity I would feel safe pairing with gold in analysis and this is for very specific reasons.

Please don't take this as an attack on your first post, and I don't nescessarily disagree with your forecast. However I do feel the hyperinflation spiel has been spouted a hundred jillion times by the gold bugs already, and if this scenario was remotely correct it would have played out already! Clearly this is not what is happening yesterday, today or two weeks in the future. 

IMHO gold is rising now against a basket of currencies for the same reason the USD and JPY are rising against those same currencies. Of course being priced in USD helps on the cross. Those buying to stand in front of the deflationary train are going to get run over, as Mike Shedlock has mentioned. Their dumb luck might save them from a hefty lossbecause gold is a safe bet at this point anyway, but to expect runaway inflation and a runaway goldprice is very very very premature I think (although I could be wrong with new all time lows on the 30y T-bill yield).

I'd like to post you guys this chart from the following article. You can safely ignore the article, it is more misconceptions about money supply and inflation/deflation. 

But the charts never lie, I will leave the interpretation of this one up to you!

Source article
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12377.htm

30y T-bill:GOLD ratio long term chart:


----------



## Cooks

sinner said:


> Hi Cooks,
> 
> There has been plenty of jibber about hyperinflation from the gold bugs for a very long time now. Frankly it belies a misunderstanding of the actual fiscal situation in the US. You base your entire case on the hyperinflation call but give no reasoning why bailouts will translate to hyperinflation "some time very soon". When is very soon?
> 
> Another point I take exception to is the constant referral to gold as a commodity. Gold trades on the currency desks at most major brokers, it has an international currency code and is held in reserves by banks internationally. I don't know any banks who hold coffee, nickel and gas futures in reserve.
> 
> Can we stop comparing gold to commods and patting ourselves on the back for the lack of relative drop? Oil is really the only commodity I would feel safe pairing with gold in analysis and this is for very specific reasons.
> 
> Please don't take this as an attack on your first post, and I don't nescessarily disagree with your forecast. However I do feel the hyperinflation spiel has been spouted a hundred jillion times by the gold bugs already, and if this scenario was remotely correct it would have played out already! Clearly this is not what is happening yesterday, today or two weeks in the future.
> 
> IMHO gold is rising now against a basket of currencies for the same reason the USD and JPY are rising against those same currencies. Of course being priced in USD helps on the cross. Those buying to stand in front of the deflationary train are going to get run over, as Mike Shedlock has mentioned. Their dumb luck might save them from a hefty lossbecause gold is a safe bet at this point anyway, but to expect runaway inflation and a runaway goldprice is very very very premature I think (although I could be wrong with new all time lows on the 30y T-bill yield).
> 
> I'd like to post you guys this chart from the following article. You can safely ignore the article, it is more misconceptions about money supply and inflation/deflation.
> 
> But the charts never lie, I will leave the interpretation of this one up to you!
> 
> Source article
> http://www.safehaven.com/article-12377.htm
> 
> 30y T-bill:GOLD ratio long term chart:




Hi Sinner,

First of all you state there "belies a misunderstanding of the actual fiscal situation in the US". Bottom line is that the US is printing money like there is no tomorrow, they are getting into more debt every day when they should be saving money... and when you print money out of thin air, who is going to back the currency in the end??? Lets send china some more "I owe you money" memos  The definition of hyperinflation is inflation that is "out of control," a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value... It is common sense, the more dollars you print, the less value each one has... which will eventually translate into a hyper inflationary scenario...  do you see prices in the supermarket and shopping stores coming down? No, infact they are going up!  Take a look at this food price chart...deflation??? 




The government can only manipulate and deceive us to a limit, but at some point the cat will be let out of the bag. With the collapse of the UK banking system, the pound is dropping like a fly making their purchasing power significantly lower! Add to that the printing of more pounds to help recover, what does that mean? an increase in prices, get the domino effect? = hyper inflation... That is the "unofficial" bankruptcy of the UK... who is next? I wonder 

When is soon? as soon as everyone realises the US dollar is a worthless piece of debt note which cannot be paid back by the US government because they are head over hills in debt and have an economy floating on air... note: china is starting to spend their dollars with mass economic stimulus... why? They probably already know that the US will not be able to pay them back as all their "I owe yous" will be worthless with ongoing printing of dollars, which is going to be needed for bailing out more banks.

Your right, gold is not a commodity.. it is a currency.. I pegged it as a commodity cause it trades alongside all the others on the nymex.


----------



## sinner

Cooks said:


> Hi Sinner,
> 
> First of all you state there "belies a misunderstanding of the actual fiscal situation in the US". Bottom line is that the US is printing money like there is no tomorrow, they are getting into more debt every day when they should be saving money... and when you print money out of thin air, who is going to back the currency in the end???




But they are not printing money and dropping it from helicopters (at least, yet). For the money printed to be even remotely inflationary, it needs to be in the economy, not parked in Treasuries on bank balance sheets. 

Not only is this money parked, it is STERILISED pre-entry. Anyone trying to grasp the current market status or even just do a bit of reading can see this.

Excess reserves are clearly rising, but at a much lower rate if you take into account sterilisation. The rate of growth can be extrapolated as the spread between the two lines.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/31/17669/where-bailout-money-comes-from/








> Lets send china some more "I owe you money" memos




Err, if they are willing to continue taking it, why wouldn't the US government do this?



> The definition of hyperinflation is inflation that is "out of control," a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value... It is common sense, the more dollars you print, the less value each one has... which will eventually translate into a hyper inflationary scenario...  do you see prices in the supermarket and shopping stores coming down? No, infact they are going up!  Take a look at this food price chart...deflation???




Hyperinflation would mean bread today $1 tomorrow $10 the day after $100. What we are seeing today is nominal inflation for some goods and nominal deflation for others. The basket is definitely mixed, with lots of prices set to come down further after the price of oil is properly factored in!

I cannot see your chart so cannot make specific comment on it, but the latest data (especially for food) indicates prices are falling.

I already pasted this article in another thread, will repost a snippet here for your benefit:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/inflation-slides-to-lowest-since-2005-20090119-7k8j.html



> Don Harding from the Melbourne Institute said the inflation gauge suggested the official consumer price index (CPI) had fallen by around 0.64% over the fourth quarter.
> 
> That would bring the annual pace down sharply to around 3.3%, from 5.0% in the third quarter, which had been the highest since 2001.
> 
> However, measures of core inflation were not so promising. The gauge measuring prices excluding fuel, fruit and vegetables climbed 0.6% in December, lifting the annual pace of inflation to 3.6%, from 3.5% in November.
> 
> The trimmed mean, which excludes the biggest price changes in any month, also rose 0.2% in December, while the annual rate rose back to 3.6%, from 2.9% the month before.
> 
> Contributing most to the overall change in December were price falls for automotive fuel, and fruit and vegetables. The falls were partially offset by price rises in rents, household supplies, and holiday travel and accommodation.




This means, you need to exclude fruit and veg to get a price hike in the core basket!



> The government can only manipulate and deceive us to a limit, but at some point the cat will be let out of the bag. With the collapse of the UK banking system, the pound is dropping like a fly making their purchasing power significantly lower! Add to that the printing of more pounds to help recover, what does that mean? an increase in prices, get the domino effect? That is the "unofficial" bankruptcy of the UK... who is next? I wonder




The pound is dropping like a fly from all time highs. I doubt it will lose much of its purchasing power, sounds more like you are talking about AUD than GBP.

AUD/GBP still <0.5
GBP/EUR still >1
GBP/USD still >1.2
To keep it relatively on topic: GBP/XAU still <700

Where is the loss of purchasing power again? Even after the falls GBP still on top of international currencies in terms of purchasing power.

Around here if you make a claim, people like some evidence to go along with it. So kindly, would you to explain for us, how printing pounds to bailout the banks = increase in consumer prices. Why did several trillion USD spun out of air by the US Fed not amount to even a nominal increase in ANY price index (except for T-bills)? 

Again, I am not saying some form of inflation won't turn up, I just think that you are going to be waiting for a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng time for this deleveraging (and hence deflation) to unwind before it's even close to thinking about inflation time.


----------



## Cooks

food prices falling??? you serious! please don't tell me you believe every government report... the other day I went shopping and food prices jumped quite a bit in the last month... Please provide evidence of where you see drops in food prices? woolies? coles? I sure hell don't see them.

you have made your case, time will tell who is right...


----------



## sinner

Hi Cooks,

I don't mean to have a back and forth with you like this really so will keep it quick.

Can see your chart now that I'm home, thanks for that.

Actually, the indicator linked used in the article is an independant (i.e. not government) one, if you had read it 

Yes I am serious about food prices falling, do you trust the ABS or are they too governmental for you?

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0?opendocument?utm_id=LN

Q on Q growth price increase down on all sectors (incl food), my guess is will record negatives next Q. This is when you will see actual ticket discounts at Woolies or Coles. You can see the trend ahead by examining futures for soft commods like wheat, soy, cattle, etc. They have all taken a big hit.


----------



## Cooks

sinner said:


> Hi Cooks,
> 
> I don't mean to have a back and forth with you like this really so will keep it quick.
> 
> Can see your chart now that I'm home, thanks for that.
> 
> Actually, the indicator linked used in the article is an independant (i.e. not government) one, if you had read it
> 
> Yes I am serious about food prices falling, do you trust the ABS or are they too governmental for you?
> 
> http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0?opendocument?utm_id=LN
> 
> Q on Q growth price increase down on all sectors (incl food), my guess is will record negatives next Q. This is when you will see actual ticket discounts at Woolies or Coles. You can see the trend ahead by examining futures for soft commods like wheat, soy, cattle, etc. They have all taken a big hit.




It's good to hear other voices and you make a good case... I will end with this, I don't need to look at reports to tell me if food prices are going up and going down. The best evidence I have is what I see on the street, what I actually used to pay and pay now, and what others are paying / complaining about the current food prices. As you said earlier, the charts tell the truth... the chart I posted on food looks very similar to another price index about 10 years back... can you pick it? It was the home price chart which broke out exponentially when all the nay sayers were going "prices will come down". Yes, prices have come down only now, but guess what... WE NEED FOOD and population isn't getting smaller! Don't fight the trend as it will steam roll you like a train as Mike Shedlock has mentioned


----------



## amory

just to return briefly to the dollar-yen/Gold correlation, Sinner's charts (post #6193) are as good as any I've seen.  it is on the major moves & turnarounds that they work best, such as April 08 ... very sick JPY which was good for gold, but then it went & picked itself up off the floor & gold came to a standstill.

on the 2nd chart, a similar pattern to the above, during Dec 08/Jan 09.

the 3rd chart is as yet unresolved.  Gold as I see it, is sensing the weakness in the JPY that is occurring right now & moving up in anticipation of an early victory.  if the JPY manages to hang in there, then Gold will surely recede.

that dollar weakness ... the next few days will be instructive.  I am not trying to prove any particular theory, only observing that inverse dollar-yen/Gold correlation.  FWIW


----------



## bankit

_Hi All,_

_The attached chart is a (cleaner looking) update of a previous chart where I mentioned the strong resistance at the $900 level. When Spot Gold breaks through this resistance and the other strong resistance in the $920/930 area (more on this later) then the indication will be much higher prices and these levels should become major support._

_By the way the worlds largest Gold EFT Fund http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/ purchased 27 tonnes (approx USD 825m) last week, their biggest purchase in a single week from what I gather and their holdings now stand at 833 tonnes. So the demand for Gold continues to rise._

_Bankit_


----------



## sinner

bankit said:


> _
> By the way the worlds largest Gold EFT Fund http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/ purchased 27 tonnes (approx USD 825m) last week, their biggest purchase in a single week from what I gather and their holdings now stand at 833 tonnes. So the demand for Gold continues to rise.
> 
> Bankit_



_

Thanks Bankit for the chart and update on SPDR. Their situation is a very interesting point in the bigger picture. I read an article showing how their gold holdings were on a consistent increase despite price falls on the COMEX and other gold exchanges.

It will be interesting to see how gold ETFs and other "paper gold" instruments pan out if there is a run on gold. If the US government makes it illegal to hold gold they will have to default all those holdings and pay everyone in paper. I doubt those people will be happy.

I just whipped this chart up from their website data. Vertical lines in the chart are holidays (no data). Y axis: Black mountain is price in USD, green line is raw tonnage.

You can see the direct correlation between price and tonnage was  broken when the price shot up over 800 in Sept-Oct. This was a bit of a fakeout as the price quickly dropped back down, but this time the tonnage did not drop with it! It barely registers a bump down and continues climbing.

As an interesting aside, you can also see how when gold hit $1000, nobody was really interested in holding gold ETF so they did not increase their holding significantly. Just like nobody was interested in longing the USD or Yen 

Dataset from 
http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/file/csv/gld_all_data.csv
Cut to start from 01/01/07 (dataset starts from 2004)._


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## bankit

sinner said:


> I just whipped this chart up from their website data.




Hi Sinner,

Excellent post and your chart says it all. 

Bankit


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## Uncle Festivus

My extrapolated thoughts -

Inflation/deflation - Inflation in not the issue anymore for gold. In a 'normal' cycle/system it would be and has been a hedge, up until about 12 months or so ago, and finally finished with the oil price 'correction'. The amount of zero backed fiat money lost up till now globally far exceeds the amount of money 'created' to try to prime. The priming money effectively has zero velocity in the economy due to hoarding by financial companies who's liabilities suddenly far outway their assets, if they could even value them in this climate?

Flight to quality - As fast as things have been happening, it is but a slow motion move from or between paper backed currencies, the commodity flavour of the month, the least worthless currencies, and finally, the ultimate store of independent wealth  - gold!

Bankruptcy contagion - As the cycle continues to break down completely, we will get the bankruptcy 'spiral of influence' moving from companies to municipalities to state governments to national governments. This is happening now in various stages around the globe ie California state (the worlds 5th or sixth largest economy) is close to bankruptcy. Great Britain is a basket case.

Exchange rate - Australia has lagged these effects because of the commodities spike, but will probably won't be immune, and the onset of a calamitous recession will be swift and literally unbelievable. This is when the exchange rate will crash. (The RBA should leave interest rates at 4% because it's not going to have any more effect at zero - those who are responsible savers should at least be able to be rewarded and spend the interest into the economy?)

Cash - what is it good for? - As interest rates progressively become zero bound, there will less inclination to keep cash in the bank, esp if it becomes widely known that government bank guarantees are physically impossible to enact.

Breakdown of the 'free' market - The gold ETF's are both the biggest threat to gold and it's biggest support point, but only while the party continues. Central banks and governments will be given powers to control/manipulate anything that threatens stability, more than what has happened up till now. This will include currencies (competitive devaluations) stock markets, commodities and gold. Gold is both the riskiest asset & the one asset that could make bonaza, one-in-a-lifetime profits from either stocks or bullion, but if markets are frozen then all bets are off, all strategies are useless, all things are worthless?

The best hope we have is that they (the same buffoons that got us into this mess in the first place) will be successful at re-flating the worlds economy's' so we do in fact have inflation again? In the meantime, deflation is the enemy, so gold seems a good bet , after all, what else is there?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> My extrapolated thoughts -
> 
> In the meantime, deflation is the enemy, so gold seems a good bet , after all, what else is there?





The paper promise money across the globe is backed by massive debt.   Soon only assets that you can hold, see, eat or stand on will have any value at all.   

A well backed and thoughtful post Uncle.

cheers on this Australia Day

explod


----------



## CanOz

This could be a pivotal week for GOLD, and the EURO, if the flight to safety wanes a bit then a rally could get some traction. 

Cheers,


CanOz


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## sinner

Barghh. I told myself no trading today, and had a party to play at anyway. But could not resist placing a blind short right before I left the house at 892. Stop loss at 906. Was just playing with a couple of minis on my profit pool so was not too worried because I figured any losses would be made up in the morning by my gold miners. I really did not anticipate continued strength! I always forget how the Tokyo session usually ignores price weakness and gobbles it up anyway!

Came home to a loss which stings a bit anyway (but them's the cost of tickets to this show!), so let that be a lesson kiddies, no discipline to follow your strategy = lose.

So given a rather pitiful "retracement" to where I decided to go short  whats our opinion for the night fellows? I won't be playing along (prefer to sleep tonight and keep my remaining profits  ), but watching from the sidelines is still fun. 

Will be interesting to see if there is a strong downward move in gold tonight during the NY session will Friday nights sentiment still carry on for the ASX gold sector tomorrow?


----------



## Cooks

sinner said:


> Barghh. I told myself no trading today, and had a party to play at anyway. But could not resist placing a blind short right before I left the house at 892. Stop loss at 906. Was just playing with a couple of minis on my profit pool so was not too worried because I figured any losses would be made up in the morning by my gold miners. I really did not anticipate continued strength! I always forget how the Tokyo session usually ignores price weakness and gobbles it up anyway!
> 
> Came home to a loss which stings a bit anyway (but them's the cost of tickets to this show!), so let that be a lesson kiddies, no discipline to follow your strategy = lose.
> 
> So given a rather pitiful "retracement" to where I decided to go short  whats our opinion for the night fellows? I won't be playing along (prefer to sleep tonight and keep my remaining profits  ), but watching from the sidelines is still fun.
> 
> Will be interesting to see if there is a strong downward move in gold tonight during the NY session will Friday nights sentiment still carry on for the ASX gold sector tomorrow?




Very bold move Sinner considering gold is bullish on the daily, hourly, 30min and 15 min charts i.e. bullish alignment on all time frames. On Friday the daily also broke the downtrend line and note that it is also the break of a neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. Projected target for gold is most likely to test the all time high... as for tonight, further upside is my call. Good thing you had a stop


----------



## sinner

Cooks said:


> Very bold move Sinner considering gold is bullish on the daily, hourly, 30min and 15 min charts i.e. bullish alignment on all time frames. On Friday the daily also broke the downtrend line and note that it is also the break of a neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. Projected target for gold is most likely to test the all time high... as for tonight, further upside is my call. Good thing you had a stop




Hehe like I said, it was blind didn't even look at a chart. Was not attempting a ballsy move, although I guess departing from strategy is ballsy in a dumb way. I was just being greedy, didn't want to miss out on a strong retracement down! What are profits for, if not to make bets? :

Have a good night everyone, I had a loverrrrly Australia day! Thank the Commonwealth for stops :


----------



## Smurf1976

I'm no T/A guru, far from it, but a little voice in the back of my head keeps saying "gaps get filled" and on a long term AUD gold price chart there's a very noticeable gap around $1000. 

I can follow all the fundamental arguments, but the chart in AUD has me thinking that maybe there's a dip coming and that would be a better time to add to positions? Or have I got it all wrong? I'm no chart expert as I said.


----------



## refined silver

Dunno about the next 24hrs, but since gold is hitting new highs in GBP, Euro, Canadian Dollar, Ruble, and AUD, I think that is signalling inflation coming. (Probably still a fair bit of downward movement left in debt based asset prices though)


----------



## Glen48

This from Money & Markets if true should push Gold up???
But just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the problem, Bank of America and Citigroup's combined credit default swaps are more than* sixty *times larger than the $90 billion they've received so far in capital infusions from the Treasury Department.


----------



## Cooks

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm no T/A guru, far from it, but a little voice in the back of my head keeps saying "gaps get filled" and on a long term AUD gold price chart there's a very noticeable gap around $1000.
> 
> I can follow all the fundamental arguments, but the chart in AUD has me thinking that maybe there's a dip coming and that would be a better time to add to positions? Or have I got it all wrong? I'm no chart expert as I said.




The trend is your friend, ride it up until it shows the first signs of lower highs followed by a lower low... the daily is in an uptrend as are the smaller time frames... if there is a dip, buy it as it would be classed as a pullback in an uptrend, provided it doesn't violate the previous pivot low


----------



## nunthewiser

"To Infinity And Beyond !


----------



## refined silver

Glen48 said:


> This from Money & Markets if true should push Gold up???
> But just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the problem, Bank of America and Citigroup's combined credit default swaps are more than* sixty *times larger than the $90 billion they've received so far in capital infusions from the Treasury Department.




And the last shoe to drop, interest rate swaps, are an order of magnitude (10fold) bigger than Credit Default Swaps. 

The Interest rate swaps will go when the US treasury bond market turns. Then everything truly goes nuclear.


----------



## BentRod

Cooks said:


> The trend is your friend, ride it up until it shows the first signs of lower highs followed by a lower low... the daily is in an uptrend as are the smaller time frames... if there is a dip, buy it as it would be classed as a pullback in an uptrend, provided it doesn't violate the previous pivot low




The daily chart hasn't even breached the last Lower Low yet and is yet to make a Higher High.

Needs to break $930 to get bullish.


----------



## sinner

Glen48 said:


> This from Money & Markets if true should push Gold up???
> But just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the problem, Bank of America and Citigroup's combined credit default swaps are more than* sixty *times larger than the $90 billion they've received so far in capital infusions from the Treasury Department.




This might be true, in terms of pure $ amounts but we saw the same massive numbers (and sky is falling commentary) with Lehman, maybe it was bigger, I can't remember. In the end the total liability winded up as a small number like $20mil because there was CDS on CDS (i.e swap on a swap) and this sort of shenanigans! 

As long as the owners of the CDS are willing to get their payment in USD then this "should" hold up, low counterparty risk with the US govt and their lovely printing press as the guarantor!


----------



## amory

still seems to me that the Gold-price reacts most strongly to any weakness in the USdollar.  today for inst, this weakness is apparent against the Euro & the Aussie, although not to any great extent.  not much change vs the Yen.

the firming Pog might be in expectation of further dollar weakness.  but must admit that there could be many other factors at work.


----------



## Cooks

BentRod said:


> The daily chart hasn't even breached the last Lower Low yet and is yet to make a Higher High.
> 
> Needs to break $930 to get bullish.




Looking at your chart, the last pivot low was at around $800, so we are no where close to it... but we have made a higher high by passing $885. So starting from $670, we clearly have an uptrend of higher lows and higher highs.. a good consolidation / pullback under $930 should see more upside


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm no T/A guru, far from it, but a little voice in the back of my head keeps saying "gaps get filled" and on a long term AUD gold price chart there's a very noticeable gap around $1000.
> 
> I can follow all the fundamental arguments, but the chart in AUD has me thinking that maybe there's a dip coming and that would be a better time to add to positions? Or have I got it all wrong? I'm no chart expert as I said.




$AU1000 gold would need either a fall in the US price to $650 or so or exchange rate back into the 80's or so or a combo of both. Aussie interest rate cuts and a full blown recession sort of limit the FX factor, so the other option of an outright tank of the US price is the only other variable, but then that's not going to happen because of........



Glen48 said:


> This from Money & Markets if true should push Gold up???
> But just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the problem, Bank of America and Citigroup's combined credit default swaps are more than* sixty *times larger than the $90 billion they've received so far in capital infusions from the Treasury Department.




Wealth destruction via asset value vaporisation. Fractional reserve banking and derivatives of the money created ensures that all such money created will be destroyed in circumstances we now face ie once the ball starts rolling it will be impossible to stop. 




> [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AMERICANS are bracing for more bad news this week, when data will probably show that the US economy shrank by an annualised 5 to 5.5 per cent in the last three months of 2008, the *biggest contraction in decades.* [/FONT]



My _conservative_ prediction - $US1000 $AU2000 gold by at least August 09, gold equities to be ahead of the gold price by several multiples?


----------



## sinner

Good morning everyone, I only woke up an hour ago! 

The Reuters Precious Metals Survey 2009 results are out:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12435.htm







Interesting to see those with the lowest forecast for gold are the banks in the news most frequently for being in financial trouble!


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Good morning everyone, I only woke up an hour ago!
> 
> The Reuters Precious Metals Survey 2009 results are out:




Gold does not pay interest and marginal on fees.    

Banks also make their money from issuing/creating debt and gold has no debt.


----------



## BentRod

Cooks said:


> Looking at your chart, the last pivot low was at around $800, so we are no where close to it... but we have made a higher high by passing $885. So starting from $670, we clearly have an uptrend of higher lows and higher highs.. a good consolidation / pullback under $930 should see more upside




Sorry, I mean Lower High not LL.

We are still yet to breach the last Lower High, real HH's are yet to be made.

Interested to see how it goes tonight.


----------



## Cooks

BentRod said:


> Sorry, I mean Lower High not LL.
> 
> We are still yet to breach the last Lower High, real HH's are yet to be made.
> 
> Interested to see how it goes tonight.




I see what you mean

using pivot and time analysis, we should clear that level soon.. but I can be wrong


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> In my opinion they probably can't stop the trend reversal now, they will be
> "exporting deflation" for a long time to come, and this will mean a strong USD whether they like it or not.




Disagreed with you sinner but thought I would let the news talk. 



> By Pham-Duy Nguyen
> 
> Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to the highest closing price in almost five months in New York on speculation that government spending will spur inflation, boosting demand for the precious metal as a hedge. Silver also gained.




The waning interest in US T bonds (no yield and the growing debt making them look risky going forward) is making the $US dollar look very dodgy too.


----------



## Page

Gold prices in India have crossed 14000 people still not assure were these precious metals going to stop. The gold business in India has been affected middle class people are not capable to purchase this precious metal at this rate. The position of Gold in international market is also not good and people waiting for a deep in Gold.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Disagreed with you sinner but thought I would let the news talk.
> 
> The waning interest in US T bonds (no yield and the growing debt making them look risky going forward) is making the $US dollar look very dodgy too.




Hi explod, can you qualify "waning interest in US T bonds"? As you point out, there are no yields. This signifies *massive* demand in treasuries. 13-week treasuries yield are almost nothing, cannot even break up to 0.15%! Yields are still at all time lows on all treasury instruments, this indicates all time high demand!

We are seeing some small easing of prices and bounce back on yields on the 5y, 10y and 30y but nothing significant yet! Would need to see yields move strongly above 1.75-2% on the 5y for me to agree. 

I think this will only happen if China or Japan significantly reduces or stops buying treasuries. At this point, I don't see it happening.



> By Pham-Duy Nguyen
> 
> Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to the highest closing price in almost five months in New York on speculation that government spending will spur inflation, boosting demand for the precious metal as a hedge. Silver also gained.




Unfortunately, I can't agree with Mr Nguyens story. This is the same set of "investors" who they claim are rushing to safety when T-bond yields go down, but we all know this is due to massive demand from financials and banks parking Fed Fund Rate (ZIRP) and TARP money in treasuries for a 2% carry trade. Just as I don't feel every price rise in gold is investors speculating on inflation, even though this is *always* how it is reported by the talking heads.

My guess is the recent price rise is due to several countries losing their currencies purchasing power (India is a good example as Page mentioned, I hear gold demand is high in Russia also) and switching capital to something with more perceived safety. i.e. good old increased demand.


----------



## doctorj

Citi's view on gold


----------



## sinner

Great read doctorj, I remember someone posting a Privateer note here saying Citi was bullish on gold and now we have the actual info, three cheers for you!

Some very nice commentary and charts in the read, worthwhile I think for everyone regardless of their gold investment status. It examines gold in a very similar way to my own ideas and feelings (long term picture of gold: oil, gold:T-bills, gold:dow, although they use gold:sp500) and makes a few points I definitely agree with along the lines of a move up in oil, move up in USD, no USD:gold correlation, etc.

Thanks again. On the sidelines once more today, spending my time researchin rural NSW property market! Some real nice cheapies coming on for sale.


----------



## Ageo

Well if the comex price should follow the physical then perhaps we will see a push to $2000AU p/o as bullion houses around the world cannot keep up with demand. I was with a customer the other day when a gentleman walked right in and asked for $400,000 worth of bullion. 

Anything less than 1100AU p/o is considered a bargain now in the physical world. (Even if it tanks like it did back in October).


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> Well if the comex price should follow the physical then perhaps we will see a push to $2000AU p/o as bullion houses around the world cannot keep up with demand. I was with a customer the other day when a gentleman walked right in and asked for $400,000 worth of bullion.
> 
> Anything less than 1100AU p/o is considered a bargain now in the physical world. (Even if it tanks like it did back in October).




Aparently the Comex is mixing it with longs to be on the safe side.  It was the banks who entered the market around the $US920  , according to Dan Di Nachi that technical level will be the one to toss.    A drop to 870 could see the Comex mob have another go at the 840 area.

Through this entire bull run from 2001 the breaks have occurred out of pennants, this one has about three months to run before it has to makes its decision.


----------



## Page

There are very few possibilities that we can see any down trend in gold. In future we are not seeing gold coming down possibilities are very less.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

If nobody minds I'd like to revisit the USDJPY <-> GLD correlation which amory raised.

This is the 5 day chart. I included XAU, GLD and GOLD.AX  to try and cover the correlation for full 24h of trading in terms of gold ETFs and spot price.

A bit messy and all over the shop.

Now examine the second chart. Anyone notice anything? USDJPY seems to be a high correlation leading indicator to GLD!  Every time USD weakens against JPY you can see an almost identical movement in GLD while the NYSE is open.

Please note:
1. I use GLD rather than XAU on the second chart to highlight how the USDJPY leads the NY trading session gold price (and GLD tracks spot pretty consistently).
2. Five days of interesting but untested chart does not constitute statistical significance, only that the correlation could be examined further (and with more rigor!). I can post an updated chart tomorrow after tonights session, if anyone is interested.

Comments appreciated.


----------



## explod

> Gold attracts more flows amid recession
> Wed Jan 28, 2009 9:29am GMT
> By Frank Tang and Jennifer Ablan
> 
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold, the traditional safe haven in times of economic turmoil, proved to be more a commodity that everyone loved to hate last year even amid the turbulence that engulfed world markets.
> 
> But as 2009 gets under way the yellow metal has found huge traction with money managers.
> 
> In the last eight sessions, gold has rallied as much as $100 (70 pounds) an ounce to hit a near four-month high of $915.30 on Monday ”” in spite of a rising dollar.
> 
> The furious rally in the bullion stems from expectations that the U.S. government will need to borrow about $2 trillion of debt this year to finance its rescue packages for the battered banking sector. Already, outstanding Treasury debt stood at $5.5 trillion at the end of September.
> 
> Against this backdrop, investors are largely shunning everything from U.S. Treasuries to stocks, which are down 10 percent and 7.5 percent so far this year, respectively, while pouring cash into gold.
> 
> "I think gold is rising because of fiscal deterioration and the prospect that the U.S. may be downgraded," said Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer for $22 billion in assets at Clearbrook Financial LLC in Princeton, New Jersey.




For you Sinner, it is obvious that the so called popularity of treasuries is coming from the Fed and as well with China and Japan trying to hold up their investment in them and to vainly maintain trade for their produce.   One commentator recently stated that those holding Treasuries are standing on a trap door.   As more money is printed the value dilutes.   

Gold may not pay interest but at least among virtually all other things, it is going up.


----------



## explod

The Bond market is the one to watch now.   Privateer last few newsletters have covered the dynamic in considerable detail.   The following short bit from Dan Norcini sumes it up prettty well.    The day for gold is getting closer and the move will be strong.  On the weekly we are near to a breakout of significance IMHO



> Even the bond market has finally figured this one out – as lousy as the economic data gets (did you see that new home sales hit a 14 year low according to today’s data release) the bonds still cannot muster much of an upward move. Traders there are slowly coming to realize that bonds are not such a “safe haven” when the feds are multiplying them faster than ACORN can register non-existent or dead voters. Bond traders rightly fear a tidal wave of supply that is going to overwhelm whatever demand still exists for them.
> 
> The bond chart has turned absolutely horrendous with today’s sell off breaching a short term support level which had emerged near the 128 ^15 level. There looks to be nothing in the way of technical chart support until down near the 100 day moving average at 125 ^08. About the only thing that the bond bulls have going for them is the extremely oversold level but that is not a lot to hang your hat on once sentiment shifts, especially in a market that had blown up into a bubble of cosmic proportions. Tomorrow’s weekly and monthly close in the bonds will be significant.
> 
> All of this contributed to gold’s rise from support – if bonds are no longer safe havens then where can one go with their wealth to protect it from the depredations being inflicted upon it by Central Bankers and ignorant politicians. Answer  - Gold.  Pause here as the camera pans in closer to zoom in on the bullions coins I am holding in my hand and then pans back out so that you can see the 800 telephone number to phone so that you can purchase some gold and pay for the cost of the advertisement.




Some may consider this to be a Gold Bugs Ramp.   It is, but only my VERY humble opinion and have been often wrong in the past.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> The Bond market is the one to watch now.




We can at least agree this far 

I don't disagree that China, Japan and the US Fed are largely behind demand for T-bills. What we are witnessing is what the Chinese call "triangular debt" where several parties conspire to give the illusion of assets based on debt.

I simply don't see it ending all that quickly like a trap door.

Here is an analysis of the China T-bill situation which I found really great. The first link is a blog overviewing the piece which I have included because some of the comments down the bottom written by some smart cookies! Not necessarily in agreement with my view but very educational. The second link is the actual piece

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/01...agement-of-chinas-reserves-during-the-crisis/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123318934318826787.html

Anyway, anyway, that isn't why I am posting here tonight.

With the London session well underway, and NYMEX opening pretty soon here is some interesting action:


----------



## explod

It looks like the close this week will be around $US925, a little short of what I would see as significant but momentum is growing now at the right time for the new trading year.    Of course the sign we have been looking for is SENTIMENT



> Posted: Jan 30 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: January 30, 2009 at 3:47 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> Gold buying accelerated as Europe opened for trading in the overnight hours here in the States with the currency crisis the main factor propelling European based gold prices sharply higher. Paper is definitely OUT in Europe and metal is in. I suppose what is so revealing about this is that is marks an abrupt reversal from a pattern that has been seen for most of the better part of the entire near-9 year bull market in gold. Asian buying would take the metal higher whereupon the return of Europe based traders to their desks, it would be summarily derailed around the 2:00 AM CST period. What is happening now is that the price is accelerating higher near or about this hour. It has become obvious that a sea-change in sentiment towards the yellow metal has occurred in Europe and particularly in Britain. With no where to put money for a safe haven as bonds become suspect, gold is seeing significant hedge fund activity which is beating back the incessant selling by the bullion banks. That buying drove Gold priced in Euro terms to another brand new, all-time high for the London PM Fix at â‚¬715.620. Euro gold has taken out â‚¬700, quite a significant feat! So much for the deflationists’ arguments…
> 
> Once trade moved into New York, the bullion banks resurfaced in force and attempt to stem the tide. Today they initially showed their hand near and above the $920 level. Their footprint is more than obvious for those who can read price charts. However, in what must have been quite a stunner to these bullies of the sand box, they were beaten back out of their castle as the bulls pushed right through their picket lines. They have been feverishly attempting to stem the rise near $920 as failure means the highs made back in September-October last year around the $940 level would then be in play. If those give way, $1000 is a given and they know it.


----------



## cuttlefish

Gold price up nicely overnight, and even John Nadler is starting to sound vaguely optimistic (or at least less pessimistic).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It would be amusing except it means the worst of fears are materialising - watching the CB's 'transfer', via gold sales/leasing, their only form of real 'wealth value' to the early adopters of the realisation that global fiat money systems are close to failing? 



> I believe gold’s clear break from its typical linkage to the dollar is revealing a recognition by the market that the fiat dollar-based monetary system that has been in place since 1980 has collapsed, and it has collapsed for the same reason that the US credit markets collapsed (i.e. - enormous imbalances resulting from too much money printing by the Fed). Thus, we’re now seeing a general investor fear of debasement of all fiat currencies globally (i.e. a fear of future inflation and the loss of purchasing power).
> 
> For example, the British (and others holding pounds) see the pound sterling collapsing much like Iceland saw its currency collapse, but they know the dollar has its own problems, as does the euro (although I would argue the euro has fewer problems than the dollar or pound at the moment, even though I know others might disagree).
> 
> Thus those who hold pounds exchange them for gold. The same goes for those who hold euros and those who hold dollars. This is what's increasingly happening on a global basis, and it’s this demand that's being reflected in the across the broad rally in gold in all these fiat currencies.



http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-spx-SP500-xau-gfi-mining/index/a/20881/p/1

The other important point is that generally gold equities are still in oversold territory. Think NCM, think $100 per share? Prepare for phase 3 - the manic scramble?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

......thank you Aussie dollar.....$1450.....leverage to profit margins exploding?


----------



## nunthewiser

Holds pyhsical gold, holds gold stocks ...... but  i suspect we heading for a bit of a dip shortly...before continuing north 

i could be wrong , not a short term trader on gold so it doesent really mean much to me 

just pointing out what i can see from here


----------



## gresim25

good thing I loaded up on OGC on friday i just glanced at the kitco gold chart on friday and had a feeling it was about to break past 900 which atm was hovering about...will probably consider buying SGX around $5ish on monday too  if I am not too late 

Greg


----------



## amory

so maybe its not weakness in the USDollar one needs to lie in waiting for ... weakness in the Treasuries might just be the straw in the wind that's needed to turn the tide.  it never did make much sense ... when the dollar was supposed to be weak, but the "flight into securities" was into the 10-year bond & suchlike.  which of course, are based on none other than that selfsame dollar!

maybe Gold knows what its doing, after all.


----------



## amory

... but today Gold is down & so is the Dollar and Bonds!  that recent spurt beyond 900 must have been too much of an effort.  or does it mean that the market is regaining confidence?  the DowJones is trying to hint along those lines.

actually, none of the very recent moves have been of significant proportion.  too early to read too much into any of them.

and the eternal question:  gold-stocks LGL & such ... up with the Dow or down with the Pog?  one can never be sure.


----------



## metric

after the 9th of feb gold may well explode....

an accurate predictor of market crashes has quoted that date, months in advance as a major market upheaval.......USA time.

interesting to see a run on gold leading up to that date....so says perth mint. huge bulk orders from all over the world....


.


----------



## amory

"explode"...that's a big word, Metric!  for such a thing to happen, there is one essential requirement ... collapse of the USDollar.  not saying it can't happen, the dollar is not looking too dapper as we speak ... but neither is there any sign so far, that it WILL happen.  you've got to remember that the new administration under Obama is as committed to a stable dollar, as the previous one was.  at least, that is the impression at this early stage.  anyway, that's what one needs to be watching for.


----------



## Sean K

metric said:


> after the 9th of feb gold may well explode....
> 
> an accurate predictor of market crashes has quoted that date, months in advance as a major market upheaval.......USA time.
> 
> interesting to see a run on gold leading up to that date....so says perth mint. huge bulk orders from all over the world....
> 
> 
> .



Who's the predictor and which crashes did he forecast?

And which one's did he forecast that didn't happen?


----------



## explod

amory;394042  you've got to remember that the new administration under Obama is as committed to a stable dollar said:
			
		

> "impression"  be cautious of making decisions on impressions.   The US dollar is backed only by debt that the US GDP cannot even service let alone pay back.
> 
> Yes I also believe that one morning soon we will wake to see that gold has has gone the plural of my forum name.


----------



## amory

the following is out of today's BigTrends:

_"In striking fashion, bonds have been selling off of late, telling us the appetite for risk may be returning.  What am I talking about?  Equities are riskier than bonds, and if yields are rising then players see the returns of stocks being much more attractive...at least for the time being." _

Bonds up (yields down) means Flight into Security.  
Price of Gold up, same meaning.  also Flight into Sec.

today is not a clear picture at all.  Gold up, but so is the USDollar!
and Bonds - like the man says - have been selling off of late.  today too!

looking forward to a decisive breakout ... led by the Dow.  but wouldn't care to predict its direction.
the fact that it is struggling at this very moment to stay near the 8000 level, does not make it any easier.  will the Pog be able to anticipate such breakout?


----------



## metric

september 15.......

october 6......

all months in advance.....

there are others....i will find em and post em. yes there is evidence he stated these dates. why do you think a web forum, dedicated to his work, popped up with 450 members in a couple of months...

also he has a pay site ($720 us) he has many subscribers.....

here are some successfull stock tips r has made..(us market)

a 3 page thread of them....! hahaha. http://www.wiredpirate.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=165


.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It is yet to be established if the creditor nations ie the ones who will be putting up the cash to fund the credit priming, will in fact continue to do so?

Just as companies go to the market cap in hand for shareholders funds, so to do the debt riddled governments of the world, yet what do they offer in return? 
A discount on the prevailing price? Not if the assets of the company are negative already! 
A superior rate of return? Would you like 0% or 0.25%! 
Security? Backed by the US or British government, who already own an accumulating pile of toxic debt sludge!

The capitulating straw will be the inability of these governments to procure credit on the global market, leaving only one last option - currency debasement via money printing!

Ditto for AU, only worse, so Aussie dollar to tank as well? Think of a $US gold price and double it?


----------



## explod

Since October the lows have been getting exponentially higher for gold.   

The strength in the US dollar has a lot to do with uncertainty now in my view.   People are very worried about where to park cash.

Talk in the US this morning is that $4 trillion bailout is needed.   A good cartoon (yesterdays H/sun) of krudd insulating ceilings with dollars would be funny if not so serious.

What are the banks telling Governments that they are not telling us.   Never thought I would have fear in my belly like it is now.  Only thing that consoles me is, we live in Australia and we are in it together.   Could meet you one day down the road digging yams perhaps.


----------



## nick2fish

I'll teach you how to barbarque a snake, if I see you Explod, skin on of course to keep the flavour and juices in there. 
I'll be camped out not far from Tropicana


----------



## imagineer

At least the Qld gold fields should unleash some gold since it has the best wash in 30 years anyone prospect / detect??
May be a good way to spend the Krudd doh. Camp up in the area that needs the business and find some real stuff.
Just Imagineering
Neil

Buy Silver!!


----------



## explod

imagineer said:


> At least the Qld gold fields should unleash some gold since it has the best wash in 30 years anyone prospect / detect??
> May be a good way to spend the Krudd doh. Camp up in the area that needs the business and find some real stuff.
> Just Imagineering
> Neil
> 
> Buy Silver!!




43 years ago I was working for a drover, moving cattle from the gulf country down to Richmond.   Few trees, but a good camping spot about 150 km north beside a hot bore.   Jumped in the tank to wash the vermin off too.   We would survive gold or no gold.


----------



## Page

The rising gold prices have put a question market in front of all the experts and businessperson why it is rising and until what price we are going to see this precious metal. Experts from AVAFX and other brokers are also unable tp predict were this precious metal moving.


----------



## Whiskers

metric said:


> after the 9th of feb gold may well explode.....




9th Feb, eh! 

I've got the POG starting leg iii of a mojor leg 3 up soon. 

It also suits my view that the AUD has a bit more to fall, I think to 61 or slightly below should pull it up... a major leg 2, with the turnaround from about 61ish the start of a major leg 3 up... in time for a recovery with the 'explode'   in gold price.  

How low for the AUD are you thinking Uncle Festivus?

There seems to be a fair corelation with the AUD and Gold atm and with China in relatively good shape to boost domestic consumption to dampen any recession like Aus, I'm thinking, assuming the worst being over for metal prices, renewed demand for the AUD, 60/61 should pull it up before heading north again.

PS: Just noticed Mineweb reporting China surpassed SA for the second year as the Worlds biggest gold producer. 

Just out of curiosity who knows how much the Chinese gov benifits from gold royalties and direct interest in gold projects?


----------



## doctorj

This image/text from Uncle Sachs.



			
				Goldman said:
			
		

> We believe that these elements of financial and sovereign risk will likely remain a feature of the market over the near term, after which the gold price will likely trade back closer to the fair value currency basket. As a result, we are raising our 3-month ahead gold price forecast to $1000/toz from $700/toz, our 6-month forecast to $950/toz from $785/toz, and our 12- month forecast to $825/toz from $795/toz. Clearly, if financial risks as measured by the CDS spreads remain high, gold prices could remain higher for longer, presenting upside risk to our forecasts.




Interestingly they are still bearing in the long term.  Whatever that means.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Just a reminder for all you goldbugs out there, of where we are as part of a longer term picture...

This weekly chart is so beautiful it makes me cry.

If anyone watches and believes Lundeens step sum indicator, then the fall from 931 to 682 (and the preceding falls of similar magnitude) makes a lot of sense. Certain large market players are net short and have been for a long time.

Unlike the previous drops however, this time gold has clawed its way back to the previous high.

I leave the question of "now what?" to you!


----------



## cogs

Cup and handle I see.


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Just a reminder for all you goldbugs out there, of where we are as part of a longer term picture...
> I leave the question of "*now what*?" to you!




So sinner, (return of serve  ) continuation of a downtrend from the March 08 high?A new high to come this year? A sideways trend for a few months?

I trust you will come to the net and volley this one.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Whiskers said:


> 9th Feb, eh!
> 
> I've got the POG starting leg iii of a mojor leg 3 up soon.
> 
> It also suits my view that the AUD has a bit more to fall, I think to 61 or slightly below should pull it up... a major leg 2, with the turnaround from about 61ish the start of a major leg 3 up... in time for a recovery with the 'explode'   in gold price.
> 
> How low for the AUD are you thinking Uncle Festivus?
> 
> There seems to be a fair corelation with the AUD and Gold atm and with China in relatively good shape to boost domestic consumption to dampen any recession like Aus, I'm thinking, assuming the worst being over for metal prices, renewed demand for the AUD, 60/61 should pull it up before heading north again.
> 
> PS: Just noticed Mineweb reporting China surpassed SA for the second year as the Worlds biggest gold producer.
> 
> Just out of curiosity who knows how much the Chinese gov benifits from gold royalties and direct interest in gold projects?




We Aussies have twice the amount of work to do coz we have to figure out the 2 variables ie $US gold price & $AU gold price after currency conversion. The US price will look after it self I reckon so my focus is on the Aussie and what will affect it.

My reasoning to why the Aussie will literally tank is that if it couldn't reach parity at a time when interest rates were 7% and our terms of trade were the best they had been in years, AND the US was already in recession, then it never will, at least in the next few years anyway?

Conditions have become dramatically worse since then (and China is not in good shape) so we got the dump from 98c to current levels. Interest rates are falling. The stimulis won't work because it's top down via retailing - it needs to be bottom up through construction?

I can see the Aussie testing previous lows ie lower than 50c by the 3rd qtr.

The US stimulis won't work either so the US price could be back to 4 figures again leading into the bull period of August onwards?

We're talking global depression here; data coming out is usually compared to periods in the past of similar scope - a lot of those comparisons have to go back to 1928/29 to find similar conditions!

And no shortage of takers for gold equity funding - 

SBM $120M
NCM $750M




> [FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Investment bankers smell a big run up in the gold price coming.  They are raising money for gold companies like there is no tomorrow.  Look at some of the money pouring into the sector right now: [/FONT]
> [FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Newmont announced a $1.2 billion equity issue[/FONT]
> [FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Kinross Gold - $360 million[/FONT]
> [FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Silver Wheaton - $250 million[/FONT]
> [FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Red Back Mining - $150 million[/FONT]
> [FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Endeavour Financial - $100 million[/FONT]
> [FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Alamos Gold - $75 million[/FONT]





http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=49014


----------



## Nyden

Uncle Festivus said:


> My reasoning to why the Aussie will literally tank is that if it couldn't reach parity at a time when interest rates were 7% and our terms of trade were the best they had been in years, AND the US was already in recession, then it never will, at least in the next few years anyway?






Can't that same sort of logic be applied to the price of gold? With the US facing a depression, 100s of thousands of jobs being lost left, right, and center - why has the POG yet to skyrocket?

Honestly, what would it take for it to hit the $2000 price goldbugs are calling for? Mass lines at the soup kitchens? The modern day US would simply not allow these levels of depression to be reached.


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Can't that same sort of logic be applied to the price of gold? With the US facing a depression, 100s of thousands of jobs being lost left, right, and center - why has the POG yet to skyrocket?
> 
> Honestly, what would it take for it to hit the $2000 price goldbugs are calling for? Mass lines at the soup kitchens? The modern day US would simply not allow these levels of depression to be reached.




Be aware that fundamentally all is not well with the financial system world wide.   A visit to the supermarket finds lamb chops at more that $40 a kilo.   Businesses are going to the wall and jobs are being lost.   The United states cannot stop this rot either.  Cyclone Katrina was well beyond their resources, they left elderly to die whilst JWB fiddled.    If you read back on this thread the evidence is that the wealthy people in the know are accumulating gold faster than the fabricators can smelt it into bars.

Gold bugs do not will things to be bad or for gold to go to $2000 an ounce, I do not know where it will go, but the trend is up.  Most gold bugs just want to preserve financial health.   As the cost of items are going up it is in fact the case that money is losing value.  Gold is not, in fact since 2002 it has gone up about 300%.

And in the US the soup kitchens are not able to cope with the people down and out coming in hungry.  I hear also that here too, the Salvation Army, St Vincents and others are having problems keeping up to the growing numbers of real poor.   Not sure what planet you reside on but things are in a sorry state.   Gold bugs are just a part of the investment community that have worked the fundamentals out for themselves.

But do not be glum, study and look for the opportunities.  A few weeks ago I loaded up with LGL and it is proving to be a good trade.

Welcome aboard with us Nyden

explod


----------



## sinner

Nyden said:


> Can't that same sort of logic be applied to the price of gold? With the US facing a depression, 100s of thousands of jobs being lost left, right, and center - why has the POG yet to skyrocket?
> 
> Honestly, what would it take for it to hit the $2000 price goldbugs are calling for? Mass lines at the soup kitchens? The modern day US would simply not allow these levels of depression to be reached.




Wysiwyg, can I return the ball with this question?

We have to take the chart I posted in two sections. Pre-October and post-October. In the first section, we can see XAU and AUD behaving identically. As part of a longer overall trend, most favorable currencies trending up to all time highs against the USD. Some might see this as USD "weakness" but to me it seems obvious the US was exporting inflation, to all market sectors, through cheap credit and increase in the money supply via derivatives (net ~USD70trillion, gross several hundred trillion).

At this point the money markets get choppy due to this severe dislocation. Things are in an unnatural state, but nobody is really watching because they are all too excited about their +55% SP500 contract or FMG shares.

Suddenly in July, the smart money begins to leave the market. By October end, 2/3 of the leverage in the money market has either evaporated or taken the remaining profits and run (depending on entry time). To illustrate the leveraged net long positions behaving similarly across a few instruments I have included a quick chart below.

Now we can consider the second part of the chart, where things get interesting. If we jump forward to the current day, we can see gold has taken back all its losses since the leverage left the market. This is despite an acknowledged net short position by the largest bullion and investment banks.

Can't remember if anyone posted this here yet. Barrick gold is one of the largest net short positions for gold on the market, they also loan out huge amounts of gold derivatives (more than they have physical) for others to lay OTC short positions.

Here is the CEO of that company professing gold will hit new all time highs due to debt monetisation. In fact according to him, Barrick have even stopped "hedging" gold (what they mean is shorting). He actually said "I'm not a gold bug, but it would be *dumb to hedge*".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8333051

So as you can see Nyden, gold could not rocket while leveraged positions were leaving en masse. The fact that previous losses are now essentially eliminated indicates *non-leveraged* demand for gold is high anywhere near 682 and above (and can be supported by examining the net tonnage of SPDR, now the world 5th or 6th largest holder of physical gold). 

Hope that helps.


----------



## Page

Will gold touch the mark of $1000/oz.Gold has troubled business persons and affected their business. The gold market has become voliatle.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys, just pulled this off Kitco, an interesting one for sure.

Have snipped out the non gold related bits to keep it relevant (other bits address BDI and wheat ETFs)

http://www.hedgeweek.com/articles/detail.jsp?content_id=291483
*ETF Securities gold equity fund up 90 per cent*


> ETF Securities says it has seen strong outperformance in various recently-listed commodity-themed equity ETFs, Ucits III equity funds tracking companies in a range of global commodity sectors including coal, shipping and agri-business.
> 
> The new ETF platform offers exposure to a range of thematic global commodity sectors and has taken in approximately USD30m since its launch, in addition to almost USD9bn invested through the firm's exchange traded commodities.
> 
> The ETFS Russell Global Gold Fund, which tracks global gold mining companies, has been the best performing ETF, rising by 90 per cent since 28 October 2008. This compares to a 22 per cent rise in the gold price over the same period.
> 
> ETF Securities says gold companies have benefited from investors' increasingly bullish view on the gold price, with gold companies providing leverage on further gold price gains. Even after recent increases, global gold companies are still trading at a discount to their levels versus the gold price.
> 
> ...
> 
> 'The ETFS Russell Global Gold Fund, which tracks global gold mining companies, has been the best performing ETF, rising 90 per cent since the 28 October 2008. Even at current levels, it is trading at a discount relative to its historic relationship with the gold price.
> 
> ...




It seems gold itself is not the only thing regaining losses post-October...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nyden said:


> Can't that same sort of logic be applied to the price of gold? With the US facing a depression, 100s of thousands of jobs being lost left, right, and center - why has the POG yet to skyrocket?




No, the logic mostly only applies to Aussie dollar?



Nyden said:


> Honestly, what would it take for it to hit the $2000 price goldbugs are calling for? Mass lines at the soup kitchens? The modern day US would simply not allow these levels of depression to be reached.




What would it take? A realisation that $US are in fact worth_less _(worth_nought_? a new word?) and the priming/bailouts won't prevent the US transitioning from reccession to depression? We're talking about the integrity of wealth preservation becoming 2 choices - 'printed' IOU's or gold. The test comes when you try to redeem each one; the test to come is who is willing to 'loan' the US their hard asset backed currency in return for US dollars? They could demand gold as payment except there are suspicions that the US has depleted their stocks attempting price suppression?

The gold funny games are close to seeing who will be victorious - who will get the gold medal, or who will get the paper certificate


----------



## GumbyLearner

Marc Faber's outlook for Jan 2009 - includes discussion of gold, government interventionism, fiscal stimulus and the S.E.C
Interview from Bloomberg

Part1


Part2


----------



## Uncle Festivus

....and Fabers trade for 2009 - short US gov bonds...big time!


----------



## GumbyLearner

Uncle Festivus said:


> ....and Fabers trade for 2009 - short US gov bonds...big time!




Right UF with emphasis on BIG TIME! Talk about flogging a dead horse..wait till the naysayers have no physical readily available to buy! I can hear it now...no I can't but it now no-one wants to sell. I refuse to listen to that **** later!


----------



## Phillip

Bonds have been a good short over the past two weeks, but unsure of the crash talk unless treasuries were rising in tandem with inflation. There is no bubble in bonds imo.


----------



## kransky

nymex opens and capow! LOL


----------



## explod

Phillip said:


> Bonds have been a good short over the past two weeks, but unsure of the crash talk unless treasuries were rising in tandem with inflation. There is no bubble in bonds imo.







> Something that is happening to the bonds that I think is quite significant – they have broken down below the 100 day moving average with every one of the major moving averages that I track now having turned decidedly down. There is a bit of support near the 123^00 level but frankly, it is not much. The 200 day moving average, a huge area from a technical perspective, is down near the 120 ^28 region. If bonds were to break down below that, I think the Fed would either have to move in and begin buying up the long end of the curve or face a crippling rise in the interest rates. It appears that the porkulus bill coming out of Washington has bond traders rightfully anticipating a tidal wave of supply which will be far too massive for current demand to absorb. People are wondering whether or not the bond market bubble has popped – guess what – it has. Bond traders might just now be attempting to draw out the Fed and see if they will make good on their prattle about actually buying bonds to force down interest rates. Speculators and monetary authorities have this understanding… the monetary authorities make noises and the specs test them to see if there is anything of substance behind their bluster.




From Jim Sinclair's site this morning.


----------



## sinner

kransky said:


> nymex opens and capow! LOL




CAPOW!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> CAPOW!




Take that nasty Federal Reserve! 



> The Bank Participation Report for positions as of February 3, indicates that three or fewer U.S. banks hold a record short position in COMEX gold futures of 111,190 contracts (over 11 million oz). an increase of 28,690 contracts from the January report. The previous record short position by U.S. banks was 86,398 contracts in the August Bank Participation Report.
> http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/bankparticipation/index.htm




Get ready for a smackdown??


----------



## drillinto

Bullion sales hit record in rush to safety
By Javier Blas in London 
Published in Financial Times: February 9 2009  

Investors are buying record amounts of gold bars and coins, shunning risky assets for the relative safety of bullion amid renewed fears about the health of the global financial system. 

The US Mint sold 92,000 ounces of its popular American Eagle coin last month, almost four times that which it sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007.

Other countries’ mints have also reported strong sales. “Large purchases of coins are perhaps the ultimate sign of safe-haven gold buying,” said John Reade, a precious metals strategist at UBS.

Inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds surged in January, pushing their bullion holdings to an all-time high of 1,317 tonnes. Last month’s flows of 105 tonnes were above September’s previous record of 104 tonnes, and absorbed about half the world’s gold mine output for January, said Barclays Capital. 

“We estimate that investment demand [into gold] could double in 2009 compared to 2007,” said Mr Reade. “Purchases of physical gold have jumped over the past six months as investors’ fears about the current financial crisis ... have intensified.” 

The move into gold is being driven by the very rich, with bankers saying that some clients are hoarding gold in their vaults. UBS and Goldman Sachs said last week that investor hoarding would drive prices back above $1,000 an ounce. On Monday gold was trading at $892 an ounce.

Traders and analysts said jewellery demand, historically the backbone of gold consumption, had collapsed under the weight of the high prices. Sharp falls in demand in the key markets of India, Turkey and the Middle East have capped the potential of any price rally. But the lack of jewellery demand has not discouraged investors. 

Jonathan Spall, director of commodities at Barclays Capital in London, said: “We have seen more new enquiries about investing in gold so far this year than during the whole 2008.” 

Philip Klapwijk, chairman of GFMS, the precious metal consultancy, said that investors were buying gold because of fears about the global financial system rather than looking for a quick gain. 

“This is a new round of safe haven buying,” Mr Klapwijk said. 

GFMS estimated bullion coin demand last year reached its highest level in 21 years.


----------



## Ageo

Well i dont always believe stats etc... but when i see it 1st hand i know its happening. In the last 2 weeks i have bought over 20kg of scrap (over $500,000 worth) and its not stopping, people are simply cashing in their scrap and alot are using the cash to buy bullion/coins. 

Although i think i have purchased 25 sovereigns in these last 2 weeks (but just on the gold value).

Says something about the general feel in society.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

....and...you'll soon be able to buy gold directly from gold companies...at least one I have shares in will offer 1oz bars for sale.....

If the open interest is anything to go by I think the $1K peak reaction bear market for gold has finally worked it's way through the system? With stimulus packages yet to 'show us the money' doubt is growing over whether the CB maestros can pull a big rabbit out of their big, stretched hats, or will end up busking at the local railway station


----------



## Ageo

Uncle Festivus said:


> ....and...you'll soon be able to buy gold directly from gold companies...at least one I have shares in will offer 1oz bars for sale.....




Yep thats what we have been in talks with so far, and some are looking at instead of refining the bars the mining companies are looking at removing the quartz (special machine) and other non precious metals and selling it as alluvial.

Its much faster and free's up alot of cash.


----------



## Phillip

explod said:


> From Jim Sinclair's site this morning.




I am not a Sinclair fan, I think he is abit of a goose.

He has been getting it wrong for best part of the past year. Hugh Hendry has his finger on the pulse.


----------



## explod

Phillip said:


> I am not a Sinclair fan, I think he is abit of a goose.
> 
> He has been getting it wrong for best part of the past year. Hugh Hendry has his finger on the pulse.




I agree but it was from his site, Dan Norcini, who does know his stuff.

In fact my own leads came from quite a number of books by economists from about 2004.   Many of them called it too early but the fundamentals were correct and have therefore kept me on the right track.    In fact from 2004 Paul Van Eaden (not one of the above but a newsletter, find him on Kitco) has been spot on.  Again it has been the Austrian fundamentals as apposed to Keynesian from a philosophical stance, dont' ask for an explanation of all that, two years reading.

You will note I contribute mush less than I used to because a proper explanation takes pages.   You need to do your own research but this entire thread if read will provide all the answers you will ever need.

Wall street fell as gold rose this morning which is a big departure from the recent trend in action.   The dow is but a whisper from its five year low and a fall tonight could see a bloodbath.  If that plays out gold may go to $US 950.   The US dollar too has become very volatile in tha last few days.  It is trying to follow gold and if the two depart tonight with gold up then it will be very bullish indeed.

Having said all that I still think the big train will not leave till March 09

cheers explod


----------



## Glen48

IMO it looks like the bail out Mk. 1111.2 is a dud and wall street see it the same way therefore the USD must take a hit and B.O. has fired his first and last shot.
USA have to get the bailout  passed and then find the loot to spend, I think China and the rest are out of spending money and looking for a bailout themselves.
What will take over from the USD I can only assume will be Gold.
I think this will be the start of the big one and we are now entering the next stage of the crash or 09


----------



## Glen48

From GFT:
[GOLD] remains close to session highs at Usd 916 after a narrow range o/nite. Continued press reports of investors piling into bullion and coin - the US mint sales of its American Eagle up 400% y/y in Jan, while flows into Gold ETFs in Jan hit a record - SPDR ETF bullion holding have hot yet another daily record. Mkt talk that fund profit taking weighing on the upside - IMM accounts built up hefty net longs in the latest reporting week (ad up over 25% in 2W) and chatter that Usd 933 would have to break for the next spurt higher


----------



## Page

Gold will remain up. There are news in the market as it can come down in some days or months.


----------



## nunthewiser

Page said:


> Gold will remain up. There are news in the market as it can come down in some days or months.




uh?


----------



## Glen48

Nunthewiser Nunthewiser?


----------



## nunthewiser

Glen48 said:


> Nunthewiser Nunthewiser?




Im a nun not a translator


----------



## Glen48

uh?


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

It has been almost a fortnight since we came close to challenging resistance.

The current daily bar is slightly lower than the previous attempt on 30th of Jan. After which we bounced nicely off the previous channel peak at 891 to get to where we are.

The daily RSI and stochastic are both calling for lower prices, and the weekly stochastic has hit previous highs and gone flat after a long leg up.

Not sure what to expect here really. How long can this channel keep up?


----------



## amory

"How long can this channel keep up?"

as long as the Dow & the USDollar keep going down.  the Dollar being the more important one of the two.


----------



## sinner

Yibbede-yibbede, that's all folks! Just a hair under 944 before retracing.

SP500 and DJIA both up from yesterdays close. USDJPY at 90.

Break up from here would be rediculously bullish, and a bit too fast for my liking. Unfortunately hitting the upside of the channel so quickly leaves not much room but down!

Let's all be grateful for a higher high on the weekly 

5min chart:


----------



## Wysiwyg

How bizarre.First trade for awhile and soon as i entered short at 925 (within 2 minutes) gold took off to 945 +.How bizarre.
(listening for giggles  )


----------



## Glen48

Keep up the good work. Thanks


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said it does not intend to alter plans to sell just over 400 tonnes of gold to fund changes to its financing base, an IMF spokeswoman said on Wednesday.
> A recent surge in IMF lending to countries facing balance of payments crises related to the global economic slowdown and financial turmoil has led analysts to question whether the Washington-based institution will proceed with the plan.



http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=750248

Now the gooses are selling the golden eggs in return for IOU noughts. Transferring wealth to those glad to oblige no doubt. Is it that simple or are they setting us up for an almighty fall when the time is right? Gold is now, more than ever, a competitor to fiat stimulus currency and so takes away the effectiveness of the priming efforts ie put that money into consuming nik naks from China instead of gold.



> "Gold is now being sought as *the best alternative* to cash," said Kaname Gokon, deputy general manager at Okato Shoji Co.
> "The correction is set to be short-lived as buying from long-term investors is expected on any dips," he said, adding that gold was seen well supported at $920-$930.
> The holdings of SPDR, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 40.37 tonnes, or 4.5 percent, to a record 935.09 tonnes on Feb. 11. [GOL/SPDR]
> They have climbed by more than 150 tonnes since the beginning of the year, and traders said long-term investors who usually pay little attention to day-to-day price movements were behind the jump.
> Just as demand has increased for long-dated U.S. Treasury debt, investors are shifting their focus to gold and gold-backed securities amid worries over the effectiveness of the latest rescue plan for the U.S. financial industry.



Still, ride the golden bull for all it's worth - interesting times for humanity?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=750248
> 
> Now the gooses are selling the golden eggs in return for IOU noughts. Transferring wealth to those glad to oblige no doubt. Is it that simple or are they setting us up for an almighty fall when the time is right? Gold is now, more than ever, a competitor to fiat stimulus currency and so takes away the effectiveness of the priming efforts ie put that money into consuming nik naks from China instead of gold.
> 
> Still, ride the golden bull for all it's worth - interesting times for humanity?




Yep, Kitko headline this morning, :"Gold at 7 month high"  and straight under that "IMF to sell 400 tonnes of gold"    Nadler trots something like that out every time there is an up tick.    In fact the way physical is being absorbed now any amount of gold dumps are being taken very quickly.

Some predictions (note I do not make them myself, though got it close last night he he) to ponder.



> Alf Fields:
> Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
> Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
> Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
> Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
> Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)
> 
> Martin Armstrong:
> A major high is possible as early as 2010-2011 with the potential for an exponential rally into 2015 if there is any kind of a low going into 2011.




Still dashed pleased with my LGL trade so far.


----------



## Nick Radge

explod,
Just checking  - that's the same Marty Armstrong jailed for fraud and theft of investor money?


----------



## So_Cynical

^^^^
Posting in the Gold thread Nick...does that mean the trendy's are getting aboard?


----------



## Nick Radge

No. I'm bearish US$ Gold and currently being proven wrong....happily to be admit it. In A$ terms we're seeing some very nice trends - indeed suggested everyone get long NCM on todays open looking for $40.00. We've been watching and waiting for that triangle for many months. But A$ weakness is key here. The choppy upward rise in Gold remains a concern for me, even though we could see new highs. 

Armstrong and I have history...but that's a long story.


----------



## explod

Nick Radge said:


> explod,
> Just checking  - that's the same Marty Armstrong jailed for fraud and theft of investor money?




Thanks for the tip Nick, just passing on any take I pick up.  Oops look bad for me to be in with a crook.    Suppose there are not too many honest money handlers left now.


----------



## sinner

Nick Radge said:


> Armstrong and I have history...but that's a long story.




Considering this is the second time you have brought this up (last time I mentioned his pi cycles also), I am wondering if you have a "Martin Armstrong" radar to let you know when people are talking about him? :

Just kidding. Can we hear the history some-time?

Even better, would love to hear why you are bearish on gold.


----------



## nunthewiser

looking like abewt quick short on the 10/1 min chart

mark this time


----------



## nunthewiser

LOL POP!


----------



## sinner

A few pips for dessert eh nun? 

Guys I was playing with my daily chart again tonight and noticed something interesting.

The parallel lines which have formed the current upward trading channel also fits *perfectly* (as in an exact copy) on the other side of the (pre-Sept) highs. 

I was very surprised to see it just slide perfectly on top. Repeat again, all these lines are parallel.

Is gold currently forming the bottom of a giant super bullish cannon sized trading channel?

I know what you are thinking right, "those crazy goldbugs", but look, the lines fit perfect!


----------



## sinner

Sorry to keep posting again and again but this is just too spooky.

The price action at the 50% retracement from March high to Oct low also matches the same gradient line and almost makes a good(ish) middle band.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Can someone post up a 1 minute chart of spot gold for the last hour (5.20 am to 6.20 am this morning please?


----------



## amory

Wysiwyg said:


> Can someone post up a 1 minute chart of spot gold for the last hour (5.20 am to 6.20 am this morning please?




... & while you're at it - why not a chart of the DowJones for the last hour to go with it?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

something interesting happening now. Spot Gold and the USD Index are rising together.

But the USD is looking a tad top heavy, if the assending pattern it's in fails it has a 1st target of 82 in my opinion.


----------



## explod

amory said:


> ... & while you're at it - why not a chart of the DowJones for the last hour to go with it?




Yeehh, he he,  the Dow for the last 10 minutes.   From 80 down to within 7 points at the close.   An hour before 220 down.   Must be printen that money just to hold the stock market.   Last one to remove finger from the dyke el be in 4 it.

great day for your SBM Uncle, clear sky to .60 soon now(IMVHO - oh and how humble).  Had to get back in today.


----------



## nunthewiser

> Run on Perth Mint as investors seek safe haven in gold
> 
> 13th February 2009, 13:15 WST
> 
> 
> 
> US investors are increasing their holdings of gold at the Perth Mint at an unprecedented rate as they seek to preserve the value of assets.
> 
> Perth Mint’s treasurer and manager of mints depository Nigel Moffatt said the mint was seeing a continuing, but heavy bias towards investors out of the US in the past three months.
> 
> He said the value of gold held by all investors at the mint has doubled to comfortably over $2 billion in the past year, with 80 per cent from overseas.
> 
> Gold jumped to a sixth-month high yesterday on soaring demand as investor confidence in financial assets erodes and central banks spend trillions of dollars to prop up the banking system.
> 
> The US Treasury will likely borrow a record $2.5 trillion this fiscal year ending September 30, almost triple the $892 billion in notes and bonds sold in fiscal 2008, according to Goldman Sachs Group.
> 
> Singapore-based investor Jim Rogers said the world at large seemed to understand innately that governments were bankrupting themselves and destroying paper currency.
> 
> Mr Moffatt said the number of depositors at the mint had jumped 50 percent in the past year and clients come from 84 countries as diverse as Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan.
> 
> Investors can buy through certificate and depository programs where their gold is stored at the mint or they can buy coins to hold themselves.
> 
> Sales of the 1-ounce Kangaroo and other gold coins more than doubled to 199,840 ounces in the four months to the end of January from 76,792 ounces in the year-ago period, according to the mint.
> 
> Sales this month have already exceeded February 2008.
> 
> Barrick Gold chairman Peter Munk said on January 29 an unpleasant and frightening trend of investors buying gold as protection against uncertainty may push the metal over $US1000.
> 
> Gold for immediate delivery climbed to a high of $952.92 an ounce yesterday and traded at $941.40 today.
> 
> The record was $1032.70 in March.
> 
> Sales of 1-ounce American Eagle gold coins more than quadrupled in January, the US Mint said.
> 
> The Mint sold 92,000 of the coins last month, compared with 22,500 in January 2008.
> 
> Mr Moffatt said Perth Mint had been taking orders from Dutch pension funds, adding there was demand right through the spectrum, from mums and dads to a lot of superannuation funds to well-heeled investors.
> 
> “The telephone rings all day,” he said.
> 
> “What appears to be Mr Average is asking to buy $10 million of gold.
> 
> “Go back a year, and that would have been $1 million.
> 
> “We’ve become popular because not only is the gold available here but we’re in a politically stable area, tucked away from terrorist hotspots.”
> 
> The Perth Mint was founded in 1899 on the back of the State’s gold rush.
> 
> It employs about 250 people, up as much as 15 per cent from a year ago, working three shifts a day.
> 
> Formerly a branch of Britain’s Royal Mint, it is controlled by the State Government and owns a 40 per cent stake in AGR Matthey, Australia’s only major gold refiner.
> 
> Premier Colin Barnett said WA produced about 10 per cent of the world’s gold.
> 
> SINGAPORE
> BLOOMBERG




http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=32&ContentID=124671


----------



## explod

> Market March 27-02 Feb-13-09 Result Percent
> $US Gold $302.20 $942.20 +$640.00 +211.78%
> $US Index 118.91 86.32 -32.59 -27.41%
> Dow 10427 7850 -2577 -24.71%



Coutesy "Privateer newsletter"

Lovely steady trend for gold followers.   Short term, expect a correction in a week or two before the real uptick in March


----------



## BentRod

Amazing to see Gold has finally breached a lower high, the Daily chart is actually starting to look bullish.

Just going over the charts for Today and noticed that Gold had a strong correlation with EURGBP last week.  As far as I know they are nowhere near correlated. Anyone else notice this??

I faded one chart and dropped it on top of the other one just to make sure I wasn't seeing things but a screenie won't work

Will have to post both Hourly charts:

Black is EURGBP.

PS..looks like a H&S type formation on XAUUSD Hourly:


----------



## Bill M

Hello everyone, I have no interest in Gold other than a few mining companies in my index fund but when I read this I thought of this thread so here it is. Please read with open mind and don't shoot the messenger.

*Shorting Gold: 12 Reasons Making The Case For This Contrarian Investment*

But for those of you with an open mind - especially after my last three contrarian predictions proved dead accurate, read on.

Because it’s time to start shorting gold!

You won’t find many, if anyone else, making this case. But as the first reason of 12 below reveals, that’s precisely why you should give it more credence.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE


----------



## BentRod

Bill...The problem is where to put your stop.

You first Ol'Son:


----------



## electronicmaster

Bill M said:


> Hello everyone, I have no interest in Gold other than a few mining companies in my index fund but when I read this I thought of this thread so here it is. Please read with open mind and don't shoot the messenger.
> 
> *Shorting Gold: 12 Reasons Making The Case For This Contrarian Investment*
> 
> But for those of you with an open mind - especially after my last three contrarian predictions proved dead accurate, read on.
> 
> Because it’s time to start shorting gold!
> 
> You won’t find many, if anyone else, making this case. But as the first reason of 12 below reveals, that’s precisely why you should give it more credence.
> 
> CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE




Yea, I manly hold Silver bullion.  The central Banks holds 90% of gold and they are evil.  But Gold will go up again, and perhaps you might see a default later in the year that will correct the illegal manipulation. 


I'm buying Gold mine shares already.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bill M said:


> Hello everyone, I have no interest in Gold other than a few mining companies in my index fund but when I read this I thought of this thread so here it is. Please read with open mind and don't shoot the messenger.
> 
> *Shorting Gold: 12 Reasons Making The Case For This Contrarian Investment*
> 
> But for those of you with an open mind - especially after my last three contrarian predictions proved dead accurate, read on.
> 
> Because it’s time to start shorting gold!
> 
> You won’t find many, if anyone else, making this case. But as the first reason of 12 below reveals, that’s precisely why you should give it more credence.
> 
> CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE




His logic for several points doesn't make sense based on what the facts are and some (infomercials???) are just plain weird?

Gold's had a good run and should retrace but the world economy hasn't bottomed yet (Japan -10%), and the good ol second half recovery should arrive eventually, just don't know which year the half will be? He's putting a lot of faith in the Messiah (Obama) and the house of shuffling cards (the US Fed) who's predictions so far have been ever so slightly WRONG!


----------



## sinner

Also putting faith in the BDI.

Have seen lots of articles recently pointing out weaknesses in the recent rally on the BDI. Here is one 

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-37917720090209

Snippet



> "The fact is the baltic index moved up when it couldn't move down any further. Of course, there has been some fixtures... but I don't think we can take it is as an indication of a revival," V. Ashok, chief financial officer at Essar Shipping, said.


----------



## moXJO

Bill M said:


> Hello everyone, I have no interest in Gold other than a few mining companies in my index fund but when I read this I thought of this thread so here it is. Please read with open mind and don't shoot the messenger.
> 
> *Shorting Gold: 12 Reasons Making The Case For This Contrarian Investment*
> 
> But for those of you with an open mind - especially after my last three contrarian predictions proved dead accurate, read on.
> 
> Because it’s time to start shorting gold!
> 
> You won’t find many, if anyone else, making this case. But as the first reason of 12 below reveals, that’s precisely why you should give it more credence.
> 
> CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE




Lets see him put his money where his mouth is.
http://www.goldprice.org/gold-news/2008/04/jim-sinclair-bets-million-dollars-gold.html


> Jim Sinclair Bets a Million Dollars Gold Price Will Hit $1650 before the 2nd Week in January 2011


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Also putting faith in the BDI.
> 
> Have seen lots of articles recently pointing out weaknesses in the recent rally on the BDI. Here is one
> 
> http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-37917720090209
> 
> Snippet




Yes, rebounding briliantly to ...... about where the shipping companies are breaking even? World trade has fallen off a cliff.


----------



## Page

Gold prices are still to move towards their lifetime highs as this movement in Gold is going to affect the Dollar price.


----------



## explod

Tut tut there guys.   It has been a long haul and maybe a bit to go yet and who knows anyway, the chart (end result will determine all)

On an inflation adjusted basis gold is about US$2,500 below its average price of 1980, so I think with the institutional interest in gold now taking place that Sinclair will probably win his bet hands down.

Anyway the fundamental information has indicated to me for 12 months now that gold is going to big heights starting about mid March this year.

We will wait and see, and of course follow accordingly.


----------



## Page

If we talk about Gold it is soon going to touch the $1000 mark after touching the 1000 mark we can see dip in this precious metal, which might come till $850-$890/oz.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

New record? Just touched $AU1500! Woo Hoo


----------



## Glen48

With China in recession and Japan in depression Gold can only keep going up.

The AUD down as they are our 2 biggest trading partners.


----------



## electronicmaster

Uncle Festivus said:


> New record? Just touched $AU1500! Woo Hoo




This is just the beginning

yeahaw


----------



## GumbyLearner

electronicmaster said:


> This is just the beginning
> 
> yeahaw




Just wait!


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> Just wait!





No

$1503.37


Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa


I'm with you Uncle


----------



## electronicmaster

There has to be some sort of correction later.  It will go up past $1500 AUD again later.  So enjoy the ride.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

We have liftoff out of the gold trading range top side again like mid-Dec but last time this happened profit takers stepped in. We will see whether this is the bottom of the super cannon I mentioned earlier (which means enough steady hands who aren't interested in selling have moved in) or just more of the same.

Gold is having a beautiful correlation to USD/JPY tonight. I do not have time to post charts of this evenings action but if you go check out Mish's recent article "You can't fool gold" he has included some candlesticks to demonstrate this! Full credit to amory for spotting it earlier! Fast movers could make a buck tonight using one as the leading indicator for the other. Just don't pick the wrong one!

I am very concerned about the price action I have seen on a lot of currency pairs since waking up at about 2pm. There is extreme volatility in the moves and have seen those more knowledgeable than I warning of this on other forex sites tonight. 

The move up in gold outside the trading range last occurred during the Israeli/Hamas conflict if I am not mistaken, so tonight's move through technical constraints worries me further. 

I will probably be taking a long on the VIX tonight in anticipation of some crazy market action in the next few weeks/months. If there is, this should hopefully hedge against any negative action against the gold miners if there is a "baby out with the bathwater" type scenario happening. Also tempted to take some shorts on the more exotic instruments like LQDE and similar but will probably concentrate on a good entry into VIX.


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> We have liftoff out of the gold trading range top side again like mid-Dec but last time this happened profit takers stepped in. We will see whether this is the bottom of the super cannon I mentioned earlier (which means enough steady hands who aren't interested in selling have moved in) or just more of the same.





Yer right on the gold grab going off.Remind me never to  short sell against gold fanatics.Ouch.


----------



## electronicmaster

I think people know that the cash is trash now.  I think most will hold.

And yea, people in the know are getting very worried about the currency movements.  Some are shaking in their boots.  I'm not kidding.


----------



## arminius

electronicmaster said:


> I think people know that the cash is trash now.  I think most will hold.
> 
> And yea, people in the know are getting very worried about the currency movements.  Some are shaking in their boots.  I'm not kidding.





sorry to ask this, but could someone explain, in laymans terms, why this is so? 
what are the wider ramifications?


----------



## aleckara

arminius said:


> sorry to ask this, but could someone explain, in laymans terms, why this is so?
> what are the wider ramifications?




Well cash isn't bad yet.... but there is a possibility that it could be so. It all depends on what the central banks do, and a lot of people are predicting more cash to be printed particularly by the US and the UK in order to "inflate" their debts away. This means of course the erosion of cash holders wealth.

Since houses the traditional inflation hedge has been overbuilt the best next thing would be precious metals.

Not to mention that as something tangible it is a safe haven in these times.

I'm not sure now where the price will head in the short or long term. I think the markets are pricing in increased risk of this scenario.


----------



## electronicmaster

aleckara said:


> Well cash isn't bad yet.... but there is a possibility that it could be so. It all depends on what the central banks do, and a lot of people are predicting more cash to be printed particularly by the US and the UK in order to "inflate" their debts away. This means of course the erosion of cash holders wealth.
> 
> Since houses the traditional inflation hedge has been overbuilt the best next thing would be precious metals.
> 
> Not to mention that as something tangible it is a safe haven in these times.
> 
> I'm not sure now where the price will head in the short or long term. I think the markets are pricing in increased risk of this scenario.




This is correct.  The USA has over 2 Trillion Dollars cash injected into the money supply.  And the interest rates is now extremely low.   The whole world is printing money as well at the same time.   This makes currency worthless over time.  

Currently we are in the deflationary stage, and that is when you buy PM's.

Also, we are living in uncharted territory.  Never before has the World experienced  anything like this economic crises.

Germany before WW2, was forced to do the same thing under a treaty agreement.  A treaty agreement that destroyed them.    And now, We are seeing the USA volunteering to do same idea without having any such treaty 

The whole world is going to be effected one way or another.  

No one can predict the future.

So people are buying PM's


----------



## electronicmaster

Well both Gold and Silver have had a massive run in the last 24 hours.

I have never seen big moves like this this year at all.  See for yourself.

gold-price 

silver-price-per-ounce

I'm expecting a correction, but the fundamentals might win the day in the end.


----------



## cuttlefish

Bill M said:


> Hello everyone, I have no interest in Gold other than a few mining companies in my index fund but when I read this I thought of this thread so here it is. Please read with open mind and don't shoot the messenger.
> 
> *Shorting Gold: 12 Reasons Making The Case For This Contrarian Investment*
> 
> But for those of you with an open mind - especially after my last three contrarian predictions proved dead accurate, read on.
> 
> Because it’s time to start shorting gold!
> 
> You won’t find many, if anyone else, making this case. But as the first reason of 12 below reveals, that’s precisely why you should give it more credence.
> 
> CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE




My view is that if we are in for a  'gold rush' then it hasn't even started yet.  It is dangerous to stand in front of stampeding bulls.  The time to short gold is when its clearly broken this bullish run - blow off tops on massive volume created by 'mum's and dad's' selling their house and putting it all into physical gold etc.   I agree we're starting to see it mentioned more in the financial media and that analysts are starting to become bullish on it, but we don't have Jamie Durie out there on prime time with his metal detector yet doinig 'gold prospectors blitz' so still a ways to go imo.   And a lot of people are 'talking' about buying gold - but how many have actually gone out and bought some of the real physical stuff in any kind of quantities.

The other side to look at is the fundamentals.  Governments have gone completely insane with the money printing.  When a government thinks that handing out $12 billion in cash handouts is a good idea (or whatever the ridiculous figure is in Australia) then our dollar is potentially headed for serious trouble.   Forget the US situation - I'd be putting some gold in the portfolio purely to hedge against a potential AUD collapse.  Yen or USD are the other choices but there is only bad news coming out of both of those economies and the US is printing dollars like confetti.

Shorting gold right now is a pretty brave move imo - it is still only around 20 year old highs - it can go to the moon before coming back if people catch the fever.


----------



## cuttlefish

Had a quick look at cash4gold.com (mentioned in the article BillM posted).   They are a gold buyer not gold seller - so they're encouraging people to sell gold to them, not buy gold from them.


----------



## CamKawa

cuttlefish said:


> I agree we're starting to see it mentioned more in the financial media and that analysts are starting to become bullish on it, but we don't have Jamie Durie out there on prime time with his metal detector yet doinig 'gold prospectors blitz' so still a ways to go imo.



LOL I like that comment.


----------



## Bill M

cuttlefish said:


> Had a quick look at cash4gold.com (mentioned in the article BillM posted).   They are a gold buyer not gold seller - so they're encouraging people to sell gold to them, not buy gold from them.




Hi cuttlefish, I posted that because when I read it I was a bit blown away by the very different opinions they had. Generally I treat all such reports with quite a bit of scepticism, but it was interesting if not silly in some areas.

Just a question guys, how would you buy gold yourselves? Lets say you simply want to buy and sell gold easily how would you do it? Buy it by purchasing GOLD on the ASX or the Perth Mints Warrants? Or would you buy physical? If you chose the later what is the easiest way? I believe there is a company in Pitt Street Sydney at: http://www.ausbullion.com.au/. How would you purchase your gold?


----------



## electronicmaster

Bill M said:


> Hi cuttlefish, I posted that because when I read it I was a bit blown away by the very different opinions they had. Generally I treat all such reports with quite a bit of scepticism, but it was interesting if not silly in some areas.
> 
> Just a question guys, how would you buy gold yourselves? Lets say you simply want to buy and sell gold easily how would you do it? Buy it by purchasing GOLD on the ASX or the Perth Mints Warrants? Or would you buy physical? If you chose the later what is the easiest way? I believe there is a company in Pitt Street Sydney at: http://www.ausbullion.com.au/. How would you purchase your gold?




Physical is king IMHO


----------



## cuttlefish

In the past I've bought from AGR Matthey but they aren't there anymore so yes now I'd go into ABC in Pitt Street.   I called them a couple of weeks ago and they had gold in stock.  If you buy it in lots of under $10k at a time you don't have to fill in the additional Fed Government paperwork.

I also have asx.GOLD - this seems like a well defined structure designed to as close as possible be the same as a physical holding and you can theoretically take your redemptions in the form of gold as well (its stored in London I believe so you'd have to redeem it to a London based storage location).


----------



## Dangerous

Brisbane - Ainslie Bullion Company in Queen Street.  I've been buying physical for a few months....

First started looking into it after the Daily Reckoning teachings.

a word of warning... it is addictive stuff.  Picking up a kg bar leaves Viagra for dead.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I've seen an interesting trend developing on the ABC 7pm news lately where Allan Kohler totally ignores anything to do with gold, especially the AU price. At least the commercial stations show the US price even though it's most often wrong. I sent the ABC an email about it but deafening silence!

Just out of curiosity and to see if public pressure will change their attitude, you can contact them to ask them to show the gold price, especially in $AU, at the following - 

http://www.abc.net.au/contact/contactabc.htm


----------



## Glen48

Now that's boast picking up a  bar with one.
I been buying from a mate mainly things like Necklaces etc but at scrap prices.
I wonder if the Feds will stop us owning Gold like the 30's?
Also will the Fed's up tax's to get money in once the fan gets hit.


----------



## Ageo

Glen48 said:


> Now that's boast picking up a  bar with one.
> I been buying from a mate mainly things like Necklaces etc but at scrap prices.
> I wonder if the Feds will stop us owning Gold like the 30's?
> Also will the Fed's up tax's to get money in once the fan gets hit.




Glen you from the U.S? 

No government especially in the U.S will confiscate gold now as that will cause a revolt. Also gold cant be tracked since alot of it is bought on cash and buried. (a cheaper way to buy bullion is buy it in granules then once you have a decent amount get it assayed and formed into a hallmarked bar so when you sell it represents bullion value).

And as i have mentioned earlier the best way to acquire a gold bankroll and do it fast is buy acquiring scrap (which is heavily discounted).

I have purchased 11kgs in the last 4 weeks, its been totally insane.


----------



## sinner

Just lost the last opportunity to make a higher high I think. 

Time for retracement? I hope so. Even though continued gold bullishness increases profits, strong upward moves tend to make me very nervous.

Last chance for a bounce!


----------



## Wysiwyg

These nutters seem hell bent on driving the POG through the roof.Is 1000 USD too much to aim for on this leg up?Bulls getting tired I reckon.

Anyway your fillings are worth this much per ounce if anyone wants to extract them.

982.00 USD = *1,537.95 AUD*


----------



## explod

> sinner Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Just lost the last opportunity to make a higher high I think.
> 
> Time for retracement? I hope so. Even though continued gold bullishness increases profits, strong upward moves tend to make me very nervous.
> 
> Last chance for a bounce!







> Wysiwyg Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> These nutters seem hell bent on driving the POG through the roof.Is 1000 USD too much to aim for on this leg up?Bulls getting tired I reckon.




Are you guys really serious.   Gold is most upredictable (thoung interestingly less volatile of late, maybe calm before explosion )but one thing is certain in these bad times it has become the only good investment in town.

Watching the gold price go up and reading your take cracks me up.

The hard way I have learnt to just follow along behind the chart.   Trying to run in front gets you run over.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Well I`ve pulled back to the wider angle lens of a yearly chart and the bearish divergence on the MACD/Histogram suggests the retrace is near.

The price continues to rise while the histogram fails to make new highs (see note on chart).Chart is a daily.Also note the peak in July last year was 988.75 -- where we are now.


----------



## Bill M

cuttlefish said:


> In the past I've bought from AGR Matthey but they aren't there anymore so yes now I'd go into ABC in Pitt Street.   I called them a couple of weeks ago and they had gold in stock.  If you buy it in lots of under $10k at a time you don't have to fill in the additional Fed Government paperwork.
> 
> I also have asx.GOLD - this seems like a well defined structure designed to as close as possible be the same as a physical holding and you can theoretically take your redemptions in the form of gold as well (its stored in London I believe so you'd have to redeem it to a London based storage location).




Thanks to all of you for that, much appreciated.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I've seen an interesting trend developing on the ABC 7pm news lately where Allan Kohler totally ignores anything to do with gold, especially the AU price. At least the commercial stations show the US price even though it's most often wrong. I sent the ABC an email about it but deafening silence!
> 
> Just out of curiosity and to see if public pressure will change their attitude, you can contact them to ask them to show the gold price, especially in $AU, at the following -
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/contact/contactabc.htm




Unc you don't want him talking about gold. The day he mentions something is hot is the day you should short it. My partner even laughs at him about his calling of the hot move to then see it drop the next day. And she doesn't trade - she has just noticed his always calling tops & bottoms.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Wysiwyg said:


> Well I`ve pulled back to the wider angle lens of a yearly chart and the bearish divergence on the MACD/Histogram suggests the retrace is near.
> 
> The price continues to rise while the histogram fails to make new highs (see note on chart).Chart is a daily.Also note the peak in July last year was 988.75 -- where we are now.




To me it looks like it just broke up through a rising wedge (bearish?), then again I've given up on the tech analysis of gold, just sit back & enjoy the ride? 



Trembling Hand said:


> Unc you don't want him talking about gold. The day he mentions something is hot is the day you should short it. My partner even laughs at him about his calling of the hot move to then see it drop the next day. And she doesn't trade - she has just noticed his always calling tops & bottoms.




Now that you mention it, true! Maybe we could develop the Kohler Contrarian Indicator, KCI?


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Are you guys really serious.   Gold is most upredictable (thoung interestingly less volatile of late, maybe calm before explosion )but one thing is certain in these bad times it has become the only good investment in town.
> 
> Watching the gold price go up and reading your take cracks me up.
> 
> The hard way I have learnt to just follow along behind the chart.   Trying to run in front gets you run over.




Hi explod,

Not sure what you mean. The chart I posted was right before I went to bed, and I was making good trades from it through my own trading strategy. The last thing mentioned was "last chance for a bounce", and this occured. Sounds like a successful front run to me?

Very sorry you think I can't make charts to trade gold from, didn't realise because you think that the rest of us aren't allowed to post *any* bearish charts even if we were just using them to make excellent profits? I thought the rule was you accept everyone might have a different viewpoint from you and whatever works for them? 

Your continued gold-buggish gold-bullishness just makes me more nervous. I honestly woud prefer to be proven wrong on gold in the long run. You forget we are supposed to be buying gold as a hedge. When it starts to do its job it is time to be *nervous*. 

The fact is this move over the last week just pushes us further into resistance and further from any support. I would have preferred a retracement in the trading range (another chart which I used to profit from gold shorts without your permission) and a longer term consolidation. 



Nevermind, since we are only allowed to post bullish charts here which confirm explods worldview (in which case it's fine to front run) here is the giant golden cup and handle 



http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1234452025.php

How's that for a long term look Wysiwyg? 

Gold +99999%, guaranteed by explod!


----------



## Tim_54321

Uncle Festivus said:


> I've seen an interesting trend developing on the ABC 7pm news lately where Allan Kohler totally ignores anything to do with gold, especially the AU price. At least the commercial stations show the US price even though it's most often wrong. I sent the ABC an email about it but deafening silence!
> 
> Just out of curiosity and to see if public pressure will change their attitude, you can contact them to ask them to show the gold price, especially in $AU, at the following -
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/contact/contactabc.htm




I've noticed this as well.

The Australian had an article explaining the case for gold today.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25076961-14327,00.html


----------



## kenny1703

guycharles said:


> We have seen the false start and the consolidation. Now that more and more people are starting  to realise inflation is about to go nuts and that is good for Gold.




gold is not a best choice at this time.


----------



## Sean K

kenny1703 said:


> gold is not a best choice at this time.



Thanks for the in-depth analysis kenny. Where do I sign up?


----------



## BentRod

Any relation to Page Kenny??:


----------



## Tim_54321

I came across this video about hedging gold in non U.S. currencies. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxSZFekFpBQ Do people think this is a good idea? If the USD tanks will the rise in the AUD hurt our gold profits or will gold rise so much that AUD gold price will still rise despite a strengthening AUD?


----------



## CanOz

BentRod said:


> Any relation to Page Kenny??:




ROTFLMAO!!!!!


----------



## Ageo

kenny1703 said:


> gold is not a best choice at this time.




Yep i agree coco pops seems to be the go at the moment.


----------



## CanOz

Ageo said:


> Yep i agree coco pops seems to be the go at the moment.




LOL! 

You lot are entertaining, I'll say that. You've got me chuckling tonight!

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A few observations on the charts -
some technicals still not overbought yet, a bit to go?
the negative correlation between the $USD & gold is over, it's now a positive correlation (or, who cares about the $USD??). The world now has 2 choices - gold or USD's (Euro's & Yen made into 2 ply tissue, more useful?)
gold stocks have largely broken the tight correlation with gold about July 08 getting weighed down with the pleb shares. Gold equities have some catching up to do before this cycle is spent?
I blame Japan for issuing 'free' money to the world for 10 years. Stupid capitalists were only doing what any body would do if given the opportunity to take money at 0% and re-invest at 5% to be lent out 50 times over on real estate. Until the log of new houses is cut from the current 10 months supply then more of the same, or worse, and 'To infinity & beyond' for gold?


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> How's that for a long term look Wysiwyg?
> 
> Gold +99999%, guaranteed by explod!




I like to respect other viewpoints matey.Explod has been riding gold from way back in this thread so obviously bullish bias is still present.

Looks like the bulls and bears are having a tussle for ground at present so we shall see who wins.I myself have been stung too many times going against the bulls  but I would love to ping the apex (as with any instrument really) so maybe one more go.


----------



## explod

Wysiwyg said:


> I like to respect other viewpoints matey.Explod has been riding gold from way back in this thread so obviously bullish bias is still present.
> 
> Looks like the bulls and bears are having a tussle for ground at present so we shall see who wins.I myself have been stung too many times going against the bulls  but I would love to ping the apex (as with any instrument really) so maybe one more go.




Sinners confidence in my judgement is ill founded.   The gold price has its own mind and none of us here will effect its rise or fall one iota.   However our deliberations and arguments gives us a guide to improved investing.

If the Dow closes at its current level is will be the lowest daily closing price since 2002.   A level with a bit of support, but below that it would fall to 4000.  Now think of that for a moment.   Our market moves on the slightest sneeze of Wall Street a large fall will take the gold stocks (and everything else) with it and for awhile gold too.    LGL's rise could be running out of puff and if I see further weakness this morning will be liquidating that.  SBM, well stuck on the Halt but have found that more minor gold stocks less effected by Index movements.


----------



## electronicmaster

Default COMEX 

Default


----------



## moXJO

Ageo said:


> And as i have mentioned earlier the best way to acquire a gold bankroll and do it fast is buy acquiring scrap (which is heavily discounted).
> 
> I have purchased 11kgs in the last 4 weeks, its been totally insane.




Ageo where do you source all your scrap gold from? Do you advertise for it, or run the numbers over ebay scrap?

11kgs is a massive amount


----------



## michael_selway

Hey did peopel see thsi annoucement about ASX: GOLD?

Whats does it mean? GOLD will becoem AQUA but can still be traded normally as it has been?

Thanks

MS



> MARKET RELEASE 20 February 2009 Gold Bullion Securities Limited
> 
> SUSPENSION FROM OFFICIAL QUOTATION AND REMOVAL FROM OFFICIAL LIST
> 
> The Gold Bullion Securities (ASX code: GOLD) of Gold Bullion Securities Limited (the “Company”) will be suspended from quotation and the Company removed from the official list of ASX Limited as from the close of trading on Friday, 20 February 2009, at the request of the Company under listing rule 17.11. The Company’s GOLD securities will trade as AQUA products pursuant to Chapter 10A of the ASX Market Rules from Monday, 23 February 2009. Investors should be aware of the differences between the AQUA rules and the ASX Listing Rules framework. Further details regarding the AQUA rule framework can be found at
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/asx_aqua_rules_framework.pdf
> 
> Announcements from the Company as an AQUA product issuer can be found under the Company’s new name ETFS Metal Securities Australia Limited (ASX code ETP). Security Code: GOLD
> 
> Adrian Smythe Principal Adviser, Issuers (Sydney) Page 1 of 1


----------



## Ageo

moXJO said:


> Ageo where do you source all your scrap gold from? Do you advertise for it, or run the numbers over ebay scrap?
> 
> 11kgs is a massive amount





Im in the jewellery industry and i started early last yr buying just small amounts, until it got to the point where it became full time. Main customers are my jewellery retailers/wholesalers & pawnbrokers, i also buy a fair amount from private people. I tried buying on ebay once (small amount) and it was gold plated but stamped 9ct etc.... i will never buy on ebay again for scrap.

I have come across just about everything in the scrap market and atm its the busiest sector out of all jewellery sectors.

The problem with the comex market and physical is that the price just does not correlate as the demand for physical is outrages and the comex has only moved a fraction compared to what should have happened (thats why im still bullish on gold prices). People can quote me stats all they want but when i see with my own eyes kgs and kgs of bullion being sold (and still having a line up) then you know something's out of wack.

But again just personal experience.


----------



## Temjin

michael_selway said:


> Hey did peopel see thsi annoucement about ASX: GOLD?
> 
> Whats does it mean? GOLD will becoem AQUA but can still be traded normally as it has been?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> MS




Don't worry, GOLD.ax will still be traded normally as it has been. The introduction of the ASX AQUA rules, based on my brief understanding so far anyway, is to facilitate certain issuers to better manage their securities listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. The securities in question are those who do not operate as a business and are valued based on an underlying asset / index that they have absolute no control in and have open transparent price discovery. (i.e. currencies, commodities, index tracking) Unlike stocks like BHP where the issuers have control on its pricings (they can make it cost $300 / share or $1 / share) and have direct/indirect influence on its values through management decisions.  

Basically, it's a new set of sub-rules to cater for Exchanged Traded Funds that are so popular and mainstream in the US and UK. And by comparsion, still fairly new and under-used in Australia. 

So it only affects the issuers, not the investors. And it probably make their job easier too because they don't have to release quartely/half or annually financial reports, etc, and a few more rules that are quite applicable to them.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ageo said:


> The problem with the comex market and physical is that the price just does not correlate as the demand for physical is outrages and the comex has only moved a fraction compared to what should have happened (thats why im still bullish on gold prices). People can quote me stats all they want but when i see with my own eyes kgs and kgs of bullion being sold (and still having a line up) then you know something's out of wack.
> 
> But again just personal experience.




So how do you set/get a selling price for your gold  - spot, futures??? Could you outline a typical cycle you go through for the scrap you get eg buy scrap for $???? based on ??? price then melt it down?? then sell it to ??? for $?????


----------



## moXJO

Uncle Festivus said:


> So how do you set/get a selling price for your gold  - spot, futures??? Could you outline a typical cycle you go through for the scrap you get eg buy scrap for $???? based on ??? price then melt it down?? then sell it to ??? for $?????




Might help with pricing.

http://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-the-Value-of-Scrap-Gold



> Separate your scrap gold into their various karat fineness (i.e. 10k, 14k or 18k). You may need a magnifying glass to see the number inscribed on the piece. If not, you may need to have the gold tested by a reputable dealer. There's also the possibility that some of the gold is actually just gold-plated, which a dealer would determine with certainty by using a chemical test.[2] If you're uncertain, read up on How to Tell if Gold Is Real.
> 
> 
> If you have any gold coins, they may have a numismatic (coin) value above their metal value, based on age, rarity, and condition. Take it to a coin dealer; you may be able to get more money that way.
> Other sources for small amounts of scrap gold include: old cell phones, computer motherboards and other scrap electronic circuit boards.
> Determine the gram weight of each group by using a gram scale. If you can only weigh by the ounce, convert to grams by multiplying by 28.35 (e.g. 2 oz. = 2 x 28.35 = 56.7 grams).
> Determine today's price of gold. You can find this on the Internet[3], [4] or in your local newspaper. Fine gold as of this writing is about $900.00 per troy ounce. (A troy ounce equals 31.1 grams. This never changes.) The price of gold fluctuates according to supply and demand.
> Divide today's gold price by 31.1 to get today's gold price per gram.
> Multiply by the fineness of the gold. For each group of gold, divide the karat by 24, then multiply that number by today's gold price per gram. For example, if you have 10KT gold and the current price of gold is $28.94 per gram ($900.00 / 31.1), then the price of your scrap gold is $28.94 x .4167 = $12.06 per gram.
> 
> 
> 10KT = 10/24 = .4167
> 14KT = 14/24 = .5833
> 18KT = 18/24 = .750
> 
> 
> Multiply the price per gram by the weight in grams. If you have 10 grams of 10KT gold and you calculated the price at $12.06 per gram, then your scrap gold is worth 10 x $12.06 = $120.59.
> 
> 
> 
> Examples
> If you have 5.0 grams of 14KT scrap and gold is $900.00 today, then $900.00 divided by 31.1 equals $28.9389 multiplied by .5833 (14KT) equals $16.88 per gram. $16.88 multiplied by 5.0 grams equals $84.40.
> Now let's say you have 15.3 grams of 10KT gold scrap. $900 divided by 31.1 equals $28.9389 multiplied by .4167 (10KT) equals $12.06 per gram. $12.06 multiplied by 15.3 grams equals $184.52.


----------



## Page

Gold prices cannot say were it is moving it was predicted that it was going to come down but not seeing any such positions.


----------



## Glen48

Once you have all this Gold including your kids filling where do you sell it?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Page said:


> Gold prices cannot say were it is moving it was predicted that it was going to come down but not seeing any such positions.




 Page is English your first language


----------



## nunthewiser

Trembling Hand said:


> Page is English your first language




might need a " ?" in there TH 

i am happy to be of service for any other spelling or punctuation assistance if needed for all you ASF members


cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

nunthewiser said:


> might need a " ?" in there TH
> 
> i am happy to be of service for any other spelling or punctuation assistance if needed for all you ASF members
> 
> 
> cheers




It was more a statement of confusion rather than a question


----------



## BentRod

Trembling Hand said:


> Page is English your first language




Hard to say Trembler. 
He is pretty quick on that laptop though, have a look at him in that Av pic.


----------



## CanOz

BentRod said:


> Hard to say Trembler.
> He is pretty quick on that laptop though, have a look at him in that Av pic.




Oh great here we go again, another belly acher! lol!

I think the funny thing is i was thinking the same thing.

CanOz


----------



## solomon

I thought this was a gold thread but it seems while the Gold chart just went exponential we're intrigued by the vagaries of random poster Page.


----------



## So_Cynical

I would think the big 1k is not outa the question tonight...perhaps a new record even. :cowboy:


----------



## solomon

I'm way too tired to stay up for it, but it is very likely that tonight will smash through the 1k. Looks good for my goldies TRY and HEG.


----------



## nunthewiser

quick short


----------



## Wysiwyg

So_Cynical said:


> I would think the big 1k is not outa the question tonight...perhaps a new record even. :cowboy:




Go bulls go, Go bulls go, Go bulls go.Yaayyyy.:


----------



## nunthewiser

doubled short


----------



## nunthewiser

out ............ hardly worth the bother ......pizza


----------



## CanOz

Hanging on for while.


----------



## electronicmaster

And a small (i hope) correction.  It needs to pass 1200.00 USD


----------



## Wysiwyg

Just wanted to be first to post people are buying spot contracts at over 1000USD/ounce of gold again.Go bulls go, go bulls go.:


----------



## cuttlefish

its showing some potential now isn't it ... the next few weeks will be interesting.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> its showing some potential now isn't it ... the next few weeks will be interesting.




Yes. Are,

1. The big Boyz gonna step up and push it into the stratosphere.
2. Retail punter gonna blow the top off it and spoil your fun.
3. or are we going to get an orderly rotation back into previous levels with the odd roll higher.

Think 3 the most likely and best case for the bulls and a long term trend.


----------



## Glen48

More Gold goes up the more indication the World is heading for a depression, I predict at least 2K and oz soon, some expert was say 1,500 in 2 3 yrs.
Now I can stop eating the Dates of the Calender and use some profits.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

im suspecting a breath somewhere around here as profit takers and goldbugs even themselves out.

figures are deflationary atm. but when the increase in money supply flows through to the real economy - watch out.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> 3. or are we going to get an orderly rotation back into previous levels with the odd roll higher.
> 
> Think 3 the most likely and best case for the bulls and a long term trend.




Respect your take, I have none, just go with the flow.    But would be interested in why you think 3 most likely?

However I do think there is some momentum in this move and eyes are looking at opportunities and to where the only show in town is at at the moment.   At the end of the day we really are only followers.


To all and sundry, notice gold closed around US$993 on Kitco and $1002 on the Stockcharts log.


----------



## joeyr46

Stormin_Norman said:


> im suspecting a breath somewhere around here as profit takers and goldbugs even themselves out.
> 
> figures are deflationary atm. but when the increase in money supply flows through to the real economy - watch out.




I think that is the key it is deflationary in America and it's gold against te US dollar so gold should fall befor it goes screaming up as it is an inflation hedge
Monthly stochatic and MACD are both very bearish at the moment and the move up from $680 does not look impulsive looks more like a B wave in Elliot terms which are sucker rallys look convincing only to fully retrace. Could still go to a new high just to make sure every ones on board but as I said if were in for deflation in America then it has to have a descent correction sometime soon


----------



## explod

joeyr46 said:


> I think that is the key it is deflationary in America and it's gold against te US dollar so gold should fall befor it goes screaming up as it is an inflation hedge
> Monthly stochatic and MACD are both very bearish at the moment and the move up from $680 does not look impulsive looks more like a B wave in Elliot terms which are sucker rallys look convincing only to fully retrace. Could still go to a new high just to make sure every ones on board but as I said if were in for deflation in America then it has to have a descent correction sometime soon





Last night the US dollar index turned down against unexplained rises in some of the European currencies.   In spite of the talking up via the media deflation could be close to its end.   It has been strong and swift, the reverse of the wave to inflation may well catch by surprise as quickly.   And the suckers havent' reall noticed gold yet.   Wait for Allan Kolher to pump before expecting the weakness.


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> Last night the US dollar index turned down against unexplained rises in some of the European currencies.   In spite of the talking up via the media deflation could be close to its end.   It has been strong and swift, the reverse of the wave to inflation may well catch by surprise as quickly.   And the suckers havent' reall noticed gold yet.   Wait for Allan Kolher to pump before expecting the weakness.




I'm watching it (us$) mainly against Gold and the way everyone is expecting inflation to take off because they are printing money. I think we've got a lot of debt to be wiped out before we can go into inflation so maybe in a few years 
Could be wrong . Must admit  some of the gold stocks are looking really good at the moment so I may be badly wrong interesting times at the moment.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

I like Chris V so please forgive me posting his articles a bit often...

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12639.htm

He has been calling for gold correction for a couple of weeks now, so wrong on that count. But his basis is the HUI:GOLD ratio, which indicates gold has been outperforming gold stocks for the last two months. This is generally not bullish for gold. His charts still have a little bit of room to move before being right or wrong.

Worth taking a look imo, since it also covers silver and oil there is too much article for me to paste. I will include a small snippet where he covers his **** :







The HUI is also in a bearish rising wedge.



> The massive gold inflows can be seen two ways:
> 
> 1. Gold is about to shoot through the roof as everyone around the world piles in as a safe haven for their money.
> 2. We are getting the same inflows which we had when gold topped out 6 months ago, indicating investors are loading up on gold cause it looks so bullish, but really they are the last of the buyers before this 3 months rally ($300 gain per ounce) is ready for a cool down phase.




i.e. something will either happen, or it won't


----------



## pacestick

Does anyone think we have a gold bubble appearing the thought is starting to occue to me simply because p[eople are acting like it will always go up and all the other bubbles did that before they popped


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> He has been calling for gold correction for a couple of weeks now, so wrong on that count. But his basis is the HUI:GOLD ratio, which indicates gold has been outperforming gold stocks for the last two months. This is generally not bullish for gold. His charts still have a little bit of room to move before being right or wrong.
> 
> 
> The HUI is also in a bearish rising wedge.
> 
> 
> 
> i.e. something will either happen, or it won't




The HUI weekly is actually very bullish with the latest action hitting the 200day t/a.   the MACD is also very bullish.

Goldies got a hell of a hiding with the October crash and they remember for a long time. With the Dow and other markets falling to new lows this previous experience is making the nervousness.   We need a bit more of a rise in the gold price against continued falls in general stocks to shake this out.  I think we a near.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Respect your take, I have none, just go with the flow.    But would be interested in why you think 3 most likely?
> 
> However I do think there is some momentum in this move and eyes are looking at opportunities and to where the only show in town is at at the moment.   At the end of the day we really are only followers.




Because the odds are on my side. markets spend most of their time filling in from where they have just come. Which is the basis of most of my trading. 

On your following theory you want to have a look at FrankD's work. You may change your mind about us all just following. Ain't nothing new under the sun and that includes the metal used to symbolise the sun - Gold.


----------



## explod

There was some discussion a month or two ago on this thread about the safety of bonds, the following is from Bloomberg today:-



> Auction-Rate Bonds Claim Victims Year After Collapse (Update1)
> Email | Print | A A A
> 
> By Michael McDonald
> 
> Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Mike Stelzer expected to retire after selling his cattle ranch south of Bakersfield, California. Instead, the 73-year-old is raising Holsteins on leased land, unable to quit because a chunk of his $2 million nest egg is stuck in auction-rate securities paying next to nothing.
> 
> “I have lost all faith in bankers and Wall Street,” said Stelzer, who invested the proceeds from the sale of his ranch in the securities through San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co.
> 
> A year after collapsing, the one-time $330 billion market for debt with rates typically set every 7, 28 or 35 days is still claiming victims. Investors are stuck with as much as $176 billion of the securities even after regulators forced banks to buy back more than $50 billion of auction-rate debt that was marketed as safe, cash-like instruments.
> 
> The market’s meltdown, the result of the seizure in credit markets, initially left investors with bonds they couldn’t sell, though the securities paid interest at rates as high as 20 percent. Now, rates on securities auctioned every seven days pay an average 1.36 percent, according to an index from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, after central banks slashed borrowing costs.
> 
> Investors are stuck because interest on auction-rate securities is lower than what issuers would have to pay on new borrowings, giving them little incentive to refinance.




The article continues but you have the meat of it.   T Bonds appear headed for the same fate as the yields decrease by the day.  (happened in the great depressionbut the lessons are forgotten in good times)  Gold will soon be seen as the only alternative to paper money backed by no promise anymore because most of the banks and governments are broke.


----------



## Glen48

Ex Plod 
Good detective work ..Gold is the only thing shining other than sell on the Dow.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Because the odds are on my side. markets spend most of their time filling in from where they have just come. Which is the basis of most of my trading.
> 
> On your following theory you want to have a look at FrankD's work. You may change your mind about us all just following. Ain't nothing new under the sun and that includes the metal used to symbolise the sun - Gold.




Th i am not really up with the convo you're having.... but from what i see Gold after 1000 could be hard to stop. risk aversion is in the air so much so, u can actually smell it. Yen in tatters eastern Europe causing hell for the euro there is nothing good out there GOLD USD are the safe havens... USD is a T note / bond bonanza that had a crack come in on Friday but that means little right now as the reasons for buying are totally different.

now the 1000 mark has made head lines here come the retail crowd i think it got some more highs to make.

for the record, since the usd is moving with Gold I have no idea on how to judge this thing apart from it's in the headlines, in a clear trend and that could mean anything in terms of a top.

I watched the euro come off to Gold going up with the USD. crazy times, going to be fun to watch....

enjoy it gold bugs...... 

have a look at that chart is that a great place to park your money?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> There was some discussion a month or two ago on this thread about the safety of bonds, the following is from Bloomberg today:-
> 
> 
> 
> The article continues but you have the meat of it.   T Bonds appear headed for the same fate as the yields decrease by the day.  (happened in the great depressionbut the lessons are forgotten in good times)  Gold will soon be seen as the only alternative to paper money backed by no promise anymore because most of the banks and governments are broke.




nice post... you have to ask yourself right now, would u trust the US Gov to pay u back on a T bond??? ha ha ha


----------



## sinner

Hi again guys,

I can't be bullish on the HUI until it breaks above this wedge it's been stalled in. Admittedly, the HUI:GOLD ratio has placed this index at extremely undervalued compared to historical norms and for us to see a return to these norms it would need to almost double!

If you are interested in the gold sector, the mining stocks are definitely showing more value now than POG itself because of this underperformance.

Very interested in the performance ratios of various gold indices to the gold price so I quickly ran these charts. The only one I could not make a chart for was ASX XGD:GOLD because stockcharts.com doesn't have data for ASX XGD. So if anyone can provide charts for XGD.AX:GOLD that would be excellent! 

XGD.TO is heavily invested in the top 4 gold producers (57% of holdings)
GDX is more diversified across the sector in terms of %.
i.e. both hold mostly the same companies but at different proportions.

I will leave the interpretation of the charts up to you.

1 year daily:

EDIT: Here is the best I could do to highlight XGD.AX position compared to other gold sector indices. So OZ gold sector not doing so bad at all really.


----------



## Whiskers

I'm gonna have a stab at 'pin the tail on the donkey' by my amateurish EW  that I basically only use for range finding, ie to guestimate price targets. I prefer FA and a few momentum and trend indicators for my main trading signals.

I'd earlier been working on a range of 1,200 to 1,500 for the end of the next intermediate wave (1)... but on refining my analysis  I'm lowering my sights a bit to a max of 1,190 in a couple of months or so, based on wave (1) being an Expanded Flat ABC and the max possible length of C.

That being the case I can't see any massive explosion in the gold price within the next couple of years. At this stage I think I'd be surprised to see wave (5) ie Cycle *3*, whenever that comes, exceed 2000. 

Certainly can't see the sometimes bannered 10,000, 5,000 or even 3,000 being a realistic target within the next few years.

But, I'll concede to a different target and or EW count if anyone can put a more plausable/probable case.

C'mon all ye Ellioticians... here's a challenge for ya.


----------



## sinner

What happened to 781 Whiskers! 

Forgot to include this chart, last one for the day, I promise.

Gold weekly priced in Yen. Take from it what you will.


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> What happened to 781 Whiskers!




From memory that was back in January... target for wave 2 retracement. Damn... missed by 20, only got to 801... but I've adjusted, er, refined my EW count a bit since then... so if I knew then what I reckon I know now, I probably woulda got a bit closer. 

Interesting turn in POG in those other currencies. How much is just currency conversion as opposed to a genuine persuit for the metal though.

Btw I'm growing in confidence in my AUD/USD EW count as well. Got the AUD firming to about 75 USD in the near future... rather than plunging to the 50's as some 'economists' and pundits have been suggesting.

If I'm right there, it will dampen the rise in the AUD POG to some extent, but in the long run I think it'll be a good thing to settle our economy in so far as imports, particularly production costs like oil will get a bit cheaper and the consumer dollar will go a bit further.

I'll post the chart for screuteny in the AUD/USD thread later.

PS: I referred my AUD/USD EW count to OzwaveGuy in the EW analysis thread a little while back and I got a big ""... but I'm not phased  as it seems he doesn't follow it much and just had a quick squiz at the weekly chart. 

Man... I've worked the count over and inside out every which way and I reckon it's the most plauseable scenerio.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whiskers said:


> Man... I've worked the count over and inside out every which way and I reckon it's the most plausible scenerio.




And if it doesn't play out like that?


----------



## Whiskers

Trembling Hand said:


> And if it doesn't play out like that?




Well, since I'm not a total convert to EW because from what I see even from so called experts like EWI,  there's a lot of subjectivity and adjustment in the count even after the fact, so I go with a bit of 'intuition' and ocassionally I get the urge for a bit of fun and provoke a bit of a challenge on target range finding. 

'Pin the tail on the donkey' is probably a bit harsh on EW, but good for a bit of provocation. 


But as I say, it's basically only my target range finder for longer runs. I rely more heavily on a number of trend and momentum indicators not all shown on post chart (including the humble Bollinger band in multiple time frames for swings)...  but at the end of the day if it fails..._Practise, review, practise, review, practise, review, practise, review, practise, review, practise, review..... _


----------



## Ageo

Uncle Festivus said:


> So how do you set/get a selling price for your gold  - spot, futures??? Could you outline a typical cycle you go through for the scrap you get eg buy scrap for $???? based on ??? price then melt it down?? then sell it to ??? for $?????




Sorry for the late reply, been real busy.....

The only way to get day to day pricing is of course through comex.

When i buy it would go something like this

* Test gold
* Weigh
* Pay based on karat value 

I do many things with the scrap (refine to make new jewellery, onsell to refiners etc...)


----------



## Dangerous

>Apocalypto< said:


> nice post... you have to ask yourself right now, would u trust the US Gov to pay u back on a T bond??? ha ha ha





Exactly!... that's why i've been buying physical stuff.  

Freak the charts I think that as the Eastern European banking crisis emerges over the next few weeks gold is going to go nuts.

Sept when the gold charter that the central banks signed expires could see some interesting times.  Further to this, surely the gold producers have been gearing up for this the last few years working hard to get production costs down.

My summary, demand for gold will only get stronger.... Supply could emerge


----------



## sinner

Gotta love those crazies at GATA:

*Swiss populist party wants gold recalled from U.S.*

http://www.gata.org/node/7189


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Very interested in the performance ratios of various gold indices to the gold price so I quickly ran these charts. The only one I could not make a chart for was ASX XGD:GOLD because stockcharts.com doesn't have data for ASX XGD. So if anyone can provide charts for XGD.AX:GOLD that would be excellent!




Does this chart make sense? XGD:GOLD (GOLD is GOLD X 10 ie XGD/(GOLDX10))


----------



## sinner

Thanks UF. Great chart. Is that gold priced in USD or AUD? Either way looks like we are pretty much in the same boat as the other gold indices.

We are at an important point I would say. The new trendline needs to be respected or this was probably a fakeout. My guess is if we fall through here we could go to fill the gap at 960 and possibly lower from there.

The gaps really bug me. Here is a chart snippet from Brian Bloom highlighting the gaps. (One at 850 also)



From http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bloom/bloom022309.html

He also notices the HUI:gold wedge but reckons this could be the one that didn't behave like it should (i.e. wants it to go up rather than down like normal analysis would suggest).

Comments?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> To me it looks like it just broke up through a rising wedge (bearish?), then again I've given up on the tech analysis of gold, just sit back & enjoy the ride?






sinner said:


> Thanks UF. Great chart. Is that gold priced in USD or AUD? Either way looks like we are pretty much in the same boat as the other gold indices.
> 
> We are at an important point I would say. The new trendline needs to be respected or this was probably a fakeout. My guess is if we fall through here we could go to fill the gap at 960 and possibly lower from there.
> 
> The gaps really bug me. Here is a chart snippet from Brian Bloom highlighting the gaps. (One at 850 also)
> 
> 
> From http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bloom/bloom022309.html
> 
> He also notices the HUI:gold wedge but reckons this could be the one that didn't behave like it should (i.e. wants it to go up rather than down like normal analysis would suggest).
> 
> Comments?




The GOLD instrument is ASX:GOLD in $AU X 10


----------



## sinner

Markets these days, they've just go no respect for the pretty lines we like to draw!


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> Markets these days, they've just go no respect for the pretty lines we like to draw!




Nor my on the run EW count, often. 

But nobody can say I haven't tried plenty of options by the time I settle on one.


----------



## wayneL

sinner said:


> Markets these days, they've just go no respect for the pretty lines we like to draw!



Make them big fat and ugly... see if that works. :

(I suspect not)


----------



## sinner

wayneL said:


> Make them big fat and ugly... see if that works. :
> 
> (I suspect not)




Hi guys,

I am sure you know I was only kidding! Sometimes my internet communication skills are poor. Was actually expecting the breakdown from my own trading rules for gold (price rejection at 20MA [or middle boll band] from a bounce which you can see in both charts I posted), what I did not expect was the resulting bounce upwards? A bit too large of a bounce to be a short cover rally, no?

Maybe it's time to join Uncle Festivus "no TA for gold" club? Benefits include a nice simple gold chart with no horizontal, vertical or diagonal lines allowed :

Glad I was not playing tonight! But plenty I know have placed puts on gold @ 1000! The question which keeps ringing in my ears is, if even Barrick is not hedging anymore, do we need to be? 

Several goldbugs have noted the "golden cross", when the 50MA crosses above the 200MA, the last 4 or 5 rare occasions this has occured has led to large upleg in gold. This has yet to occur on gold valued in JPY, so not sure what to make of it.

Also, someone mentioned you have to wonder about gold priced in JPY how much is just currency crosses and how much is Tokyo buying, well we had 2 occasions this past week where gold rose significantly during the Tokyo session, even managing to give an intra-day boost to ASX gold sector on these days, where-as usually we have to wait for an overnight move from London or US.


----------



## wayneL

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I am sure you know I was only kidding!




Yep, just kidding along too. 

Cheers


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> Well I`ve pulled back to the wider angle lens of a yearly chart and the bearish divergence on the MACD/Histogram suggests the retrace is near.
> 
> The price continues to rise while the histogram fails to make new highs (see note on chart).Chart is a daily.Also note the peak in July last year was 988.75 -- where we are now.




Well the suspense is killing me BUT, the indicators are still indicating.

So even though the MA is still skewering seagulls (and notice it is trying to level out) the histogram (which indicates price momentum) has not made new highs and if I look closely I can see a wee decline there too.

It will come off eventually and then it`s a matter of how much.One more spike to begrudge  maybe.


----------



## explod

Maybe it IS time to rethink:-



> What's blowing the golden bubble?David Hirst
> February 25, 2009
> WHEN Lord Keynes made his celebrated comment about gold being the "the barbaric relic" he was referring to events as far back as Gutenberg.
> 
> With movable type, paper money became feasible. But the Gutenberg revolution also led to the spread of learning, the Renaissance and an explosion of world trade.
> 
> Gold became an unsatisfactory medium of exchange as the world entered the modern age. Cash, banknotes and cheques were far superior to gold, especially when backed by gold.
> 
> It is in the US where the great gold debate is centred.
> 
> America is a gold-loving nation. Gold could well be added to the "three Gs" that kept the Republicans in power in recent times: God, gays and guns.
> 
> Fear of fiat or paper money goes back to the Civil War, when the currency of the Confederacy was rendered worthless, and to the "wildcat banks" that printed their own money and were dubbed "wildcat" because only a wild cat could find them. Gold and silver were preferred.
> 
> Indeed, gold has been the best wealth protection scheme for much of the past 3000 years and might just be a better place to be than in currencies controlled by the cash-in-helicopter-loving Ben Bernanke or Timothy Geithner, the Treasury Secretary who didn't know about filing taxes.
> 
> As gold heads out the window and down the path, with great media attention after years of oblivion when the commodity was barely mentioned in polite society, there are whispers of a bubble.
> 
> Was not gold at $US1000 a year ago?
> 
> In the past decade, gold has risen steadily but not dramatically ”” showing nothing like the drama in the rise and fall of oil and with housing and the tech stocks.
> 
> Given world instability, this is hardly a bubble.
> 
> While gold has traded steadily upwards, we have descended from celebrating the BRIC nations ”” Brazil, Russia, India and China ”” to contemplating the terrors that lie in store for banks with stakes in the PIGS ”” Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.
> 
> Gold's worth is also determined by supply and demand and the desire of central banks to cap gold.
> 
> On the supply side, as shown by the latest figures from Australia ”” but also evident around the world, production is faltering. There are many reasons, but principally there isn't much of it in the ground and the easy stuff was dug up by the Romans.
> 
> But demand is also on the skids. India and the Middle East, the main users of gold for jewellery (practically gold's only use), are in severe doldrums.
> 
> Given all this, why are prices so high and why is the dreaded "B" word being used in connection with gold? Gold was high a year ago, but no one called it a bubble.
> 
> LA ladies aren't selling their gold rings, old cufflinks and gold plate (as reported in the Los Angeles Times) to take advantage of the gold price.
> 
> They are selling gold because they are broke.
> 
> The principal force driving gold is the transformation of the world economy. When gold last reached $1000 (for a day) those same people never dreamed of raiding their closets and drawers for old trinkets.
> 
> Fear is driving gold. But where?
> 
> Let us assume we are entering a hyper-inflationary period when truckloads of dollars will be required to buy an egg. Will the person with eggs part with them for gold or, assuming the egg holder is as desperate as the buyer, would they not be swapping the egg for bread? One can't eat the gold. If currencies collapse, barter might become the new means of exchange. Thus, rather than buying gold, we should be buying hens. Or geese. Preferably geese that can lay golden eggs.
> 
> The gold buff's best argument is that we should never have departed from the gold standard. But then we would never have had derivatives or hedge funds or any of the exotic schemes that allowed a small proportion of the world's population to enjoy a few decades of unrivalled wealth.
> 
> To miss that Ponzi scheme would have been tragic.
> 
> But remember the words of the man who saved us from the Great Depression, or is credited with doing so. By a so-called executive order, President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared on April 5, 1933, that:
> 
> "All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve Bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion and gold certificates now owned by them."
> 
> Who is to say that such an order won't be issued in co-ordination by governments around the world some day?
> 
> Everyone that can should own some gold. But be wary of the Norman May approach of "gold, gold, gold".
> 
> The Devil doesn't hand out easy choices. He wouldn't be the Devil if he did.
> 
> David Hirst is a journalist, documentary maker, financial consultant and investor. His column, Planet
> 
> Wall Street, is syndicated by News Bites, a Melbourne-based sharemarket and business news publisher.


----------



## Dangerous

the latest central banks' figures show that china has a gold to foreign currency percentage of .9% and were looking to increase it....  Now what will that do to price?

Great article though and very valid points.  However, remember the resources boom argument - "but this time it is different".  I will never forget that....  Another thing i learned in 08 was how powerful sentiment is, and how much sentiment is behind gold at the moment?


----------



## sinner

Dangerous said:


> the latest central banks' figures show that china has a gold to foreign currency percentage of .9% and were looking to increase it....  Now what will that do to price?




The Chinese government has others ways to access gold without buying it on market. For example, most foreign gold miners and even local ones must cough up a cut to the PRC government. This makes no dent in the market supply/demand dynamics.

Plus they have huge stockpiles of silver from the currency that was locked up as anti-Communist during the revolution.


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> Well the suspense is killing me BUT, the indicators are still indicating.
> 
> So even though the MA is still skewering seagulls (and notice it is trying to level out) the histogram (which indicates price momentum) has not made new highs and if I look closely I can see a wee decline there too.
> 
> It will come off eventually and then it`s a matter of how much.One more spike to begrudge  maybe.




Yeah she's getting pretty high... maybe I'm just getting a bit cocky and blase... but I'm still looking for it to challenge 1030 before a significant retracement... maybe back into the low 800's.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys, now that the main gap I mentioned earlier has been filled we will see whether the current price is justified by market demand (rebound) or was "smart money" selling into strength followed by not much left to hold us up (retrace).

We could still go to fill the 850 gap. Just over 100USD down from where we are right now.


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> Hi guys, now that the main gap I mentioned earlier has been filled we will see whether the current price is justified by market demand (rebound) or was "smart money" selling into strength followed by not much left to hold us up (retrace).
> 
> We could still go to fill the 850 gap. Just over 100USD down from where we are right now.




850 will keep for later sinner. 

Just had a bit of a kick... looks like a minor wave three surge on way back up again. Please Mr market, don't make me wrong.


----------



## sinner

Whiskers said:


> 850 will keep for later sinner.
> 
> Just had a bit of a kick... looks like a minor wave three surge on way back up again. Please Mr market, don't make me wrong.




Hi Whiskers and everyone,

I have included a chart of the gold daily.

Market indecision is the name of the game. The current daily candle resides directly on center of the previous trendline, and the distance between the buying (lower) and selling (upper) wicks are almost exactly identical length on both sides (11 points). I derived this using 979-968 and 961-950.

There are about 4 hours left on the COMEX for the market to make up its mind. I will not know what to think if we end up in the current position or with a centered Doji.


----------



## joeyr46

Reminds me of 1980 Hit $850 then after retracing hit $700 again this time hit nearly same high but still a retracement or B wave in Elliot terms and as gold is an inflation hedge can't see it taking off anytime soon when we are entering deflation in America (other currencies could still see it go higher POG that is) 
At the very least it should come back to $680 Wave A low


----------



## Glen48

A bit more of a tease :
3K an oz???

So the bottom line is that the little bit of good news out there comes from the mining camps of the world. In particular, the gold and silver miners. Hey, there’s no fever like gold fever. Right now, we are on the cusp of a great run-up in gold. I believe that there’s still time to get into some excellent stocks. The gold miners have room to grow. They should benefit from rising gold prices. And we might see higher dividends down the road.

Is there a caution? Always. Could gold prices tumble? Well, yes. That would hurt us. But for gold prices to tumble would take a lot of investor dishoarding. That is, people would have to hit the “sell” button en masse. And that would require some tectonic shifts in worldwide tax, fiscal and monetary policies by a host of socialist-leaning governments. For the moment, I think we’re safe from any counterrevolutionary antics like that. As Charles de Gaulle once noted, “People get the history that they deserve.”

Until we meet again, 
Byron W. King


----------



## GumbyLearner

Glen48 said:


> A bit more of a tease :
> 3K an oz???
> 
> So the bottom line is that the little bit of good news out there comes from the mining camps of the world. In particular, the gold and silver miners. Hey, there’s no fever like gold fever. Right now, we are on the cusp of a great run-up in gold. I believe that there’s still time to get into some excellent stocks. The gold miners have room to grow. They should benefit from rising gold prices. And we might see higher dividends down the road.
> 
> Is there a caution? Always. Could gold prices tumble? Well, yes. That would hurt us. But for gold prices to tumble would take a lot of investor dishoarding. That is, people would have to hit the “sell” button en masse. And that would require some tectonic shifts in worldwide tax, fiscal and monetary policies by a host of socialist-leaning governments. For the moment, I think we’re safe from any counterrevolutionary antics like that. As Charles de Gaulle once noted, “People get the history that they deserve.”
> 
> Until we meet again,
> Byron W. King




I will patiently wait for Inflation!
Dont mean any mantra by this but repeat the same above at least 12 times!

DYOR 

Cheers
Gumby


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So far the reaction has been fairly tame at about $10 a day from the high, but still 'normal' in the scheme of things and timing of the stimulus rhetoric from BO & BB Ltd (in administration, liquidators appointed?).

Issuing bonds at the rate of $100B A WEEK now, yields rising. Getting closer to when all that hope & goodwill that was expected from spending all that money evaporates when China & Japan say "thanks, but no thanks" for any more US debt.



> Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell for a third day as the government sold $22 billion of seven-year notes in the last of three auctions this week as it issues an unprecedented amount of debt to spur the U.S. economy.
> Declines were led by 10- and 30-year securities. President Barack Obama’s administration forecast a budget deficit of $1.75 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. That’s 23 percent higher than a forecast by economists at primary dealer Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and equivalent to about *12 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product.     *





> Possibility of Default
> The U.S. is borrowing so much that it may have trouble paying the money back, said Jaemin Cheong, a bond trader in Seoul at Industrial Bank of Korea, the nation’s largest lender to small- and mid-sized companies.
> “Yields are headed higher,” Cheong said in an interview. “More issuance will be needed to support the economy. The possibility of default is more and more as time passes.”
> The government is depending on overseas investors to help fund its $787 billion economic plan. China is the largest overseas holder of Treasuries, with $696.2 billion, followed by Japan, with $578.3 billion.





> China’s top banking regulator said today the country will pay attention to safety, liquidity and profitability when deciding whether to buy more U.S. debt.



Another retrace, another opportunity to add to positions. Although I think this gold bull is closer to it's end now than to it's beginning all those years ago? But what an end it will be


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Weekly gold chart forming a large pennant, top is March 08 at US$1,000 and bottom Aug 06 at $640.    Will have to break out within 20 weeks from here which is just about the time the new US admin takes the helm and causes one hell of a problem, or at lest the blame for it.




Posted back on 7th October,... the 20 weeks is here now.   This thread is so quiet now that something must be in the wind.   News over the weekend (confusion supreme) and gold strong on the start of trade today could cause the audience to tune in.


----------



## Dangerous

explod said:


> Posted back on 7th October,... the 20 weeks is here now.   This thread is so quiet now that something must be in the wind.   News over the weekend (confusion supreme) and gold strong on the start of trade today could cause the audience to tune in.




receiving

over


----------



## Glen48

What is going to drive POG up? Inflation when we have deflation now or fear?


----------



## explod

Glen48 said:


> What is going to drive POG up? Inflation when we have deflation now or fear?





Matter of fact just na hour ago on ABC 774 Vic financial report stated there a signs of inflation now in the economy.

But at the end of the day the answer is simply value, everything else is as you aver, losing it.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

I am back. Hope you didn't miss me too much 

Don't have too much to say at this point as I'm very tired, but just a quick recap of the action I missed.

HUI continues to lead the gold price if anyone was watching. I did not expect a break up of the rising wedge and we did not have one. 

Unfortunately this break down has left the daily HUI below my intermediate trendline and more importantly, closing consistently below the 50MA with selling pressure above this point.

Even though it may have been hard to call on a daily basis this POG correction was definitely "on the cards" from a technical perspective. The HUI 50MA and 200MA came close to crossing but it would be rediculously bullish to expect this occuring on the first try. Not to mention the break-neck run up in gold without a lack of support from the miners.

I had originally planned to leave an open short on gold during my absence to hedge positions against something nasty. Seems this would have been profitable, but unnescessary. My main gold exposure atm (aside from long term physical) is in ASX:IAU, which has been moving nicely against the correction, closing up again today.

Have a nice day guys.


----------



## Glen48

From Kitco Gold Forum: FYI
I’m posting my corespondents with Jaggards here because this gold set is still listed for sale for the same price, http://www.jaggards.com.au/shop/view...&categoryid=66
but they don’t want to sell it. So be aware with them.

February 04, 2009
I had an order for the 2005 Six Coin Gold Proof Set on the weekend.
I was waiting for email conformation before payment

February 6, 2009
Yes thats fine. you can fax or email me the details, or i can call.Thanks,Ari


February 6, 2009
I want to make a direct transfer to your account for the amount of $4510.
Please confirm your account details.
The Delivery address is: X. Y. W Street Qld.
Regards Peter


February 11, 2009,
Hi Peter, JAGGARDS PTY LTD.BSB 032002Account # 160661 Thanks,Ari


February 16, 2009
Hi Ari Still have not received any contact or confirmation since the $4510.00 has been transferred to your account last Thursday. Please do send me a conformation email. Regards Peter

February 16, 2009
Hi Peter,Can you email me your phone number and a good time to call? Ari


February 17, 2009
Hi Ari, I don’t quite understand what else you want to talk about after the deal is done, but you have not contacted me yesterday anyway.
Since we made a deal with a very serious amount of money, I did confirm, this deal twice with you before I did transfer any money to your account. Once with the actual sell and price of the coins, and once again with your account details.
After this I expecting postal delivery of the coins to the address: X.Y. W Street Qld.
The bank confirmed me that you have received the money, so the only thing left from you part is to advise me of the time of postage, and the registration number of the delivery.
Regards Peter

February 18, 2009,
Hi Peter, We will have to refund the money, and will this m0rning. There has been a few problems. I can forward links to new laws in Australia regarding gold sales.Basically, we now (by law) need for any customer to come into our shop in person, and fill out a form, we need to sight 100 points of ID, and register the customers name.We then can sell gold (if its pure).Next purchase that customer doesnt need to come to the store as we have them on file. If ASIC decides they can then come to us and obtain any record of gold purchases from us.Its been very hard to deal with as Im sure you understand we mainly deal in gold, and as such are losing a lot of customers already (this just happened.We are having a meeting with ASIC shortly, and trying to resolve the issues - but it doesnt look good. The fines are quite hefty also. I wanted to call reallyt as its complicated, but maybe this explains it all. If you want a copy of the new rules, Im happy to forward. Also please let me know bank details and Ill get the funds back ASAP. Sorry about that, I hoped we could have sorted it. Sincere regards, Ari

February 18, 2009
Thanks for you quick replay.
I think we can resolve this problem very easily.
Let me suggest only the 2 most practical way doing it.
1; You can sell me the set broken up so each transaction would be under the reporting level.
2; Since the transfer coming from my mothers account who is also the delivery address, she can send you a certified copy of the 100 point check by mail.
Hope this will satisfy your legal requirements. Let me know which one you like.

I haven’t herd from this new law, only found the current sales requirements on the Perth Mint website copied below. Also did some enquire from various numismatic clubs and no one had any problems.

This is from the Perth mint website:
http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalpri...selling. aspx
BUYING: or SELLING:
All transactions of $10,000 or more will require an AUSTRAC 100 Point Check form to be completed. A current driver’s licence and birth certificate/passport is sufficient to fulfil this one-off requirement. We require certified copies of these documents for clients who conduct transactions over the telephone.

Also here is the revellent law
7 Definition of ‘bullion' for the purposes of the AML/CTF Act

7.1 AUSTRAC considers that the following definition of ‘bullion' is appropriate for the purposes of the AML/CTF Act:
‘Bullion' means gold, silver, platinum or palladium authenticated to a specified fineness in the form of:
(a) bars, ingots, plates, wafers or other similar mass form; or
(b) coins
which trade at a price determined by reference to the market value of the constituent metal and the authenticated fineness of the item.
‘authentication of fineness' means commercially acceptable hallmark or stamping, or by means of the base form of an item, such as in the case of coins. AUSTRAC guidance note 09/01 – Definition of 'bullion' under the AML/CTF Act February 2009, original issue (v1), Page 4 of 4
2 AUSTRAC considers that collector, proof or other coins which are traded on the basis of their numismatic, commemorative or rarity value are not bullion.
Regards Peter


February 19, 2009
Can you please respond to my emails so we can resolve this issue ASAP.
Sine I made so much enquirers, and even forwarded the relevant law, seem to me we are able to go ahead with the deal, and even friends offering personal assistance in Sydney as the last resort to help me out.
Regards Peter

February 20, 2009
Hi Peter,I have spoken to my Boss, and at this stage we prefer to refund. Please provide bank details or I can send a cheque to you.Sorry and best regards,Ari


----------



## electronicmaster

Glen48 said:


> From Kitco Gold Forum:
> 
> February 20, 2009
> Hi Peter,I have spoken to my Boss, and at this stage we prefer to refund. Please provide bank details or I can send a cheque to you.Sorry and best regards,Ari




Would that be because the order is registered under the same invoice number?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Very quiet in here. Is that the silent confidence thingo? :


----------



## Glen48

E. M. I think it has some thing top do with the ATO and declaring certain items over 10K maybe the ATO is worried people will buy Gold and they will have no register???
Not sure if I posted this but:

By Tim Treadgold

February 25, 2009

PORTFOLIO POINT: Having briefly topped $US1000 an ounce, the gold price appears to be following a familiar pattern.

Too far, too fast. That’s what hurt gold this week after its moment at a price above $US1000 an ounce, and then a fast retreat as demand dried up and sellers quit investment positions. Moreover, gold scrap, old jewellery and even old gold teeth had started to hit the market in volume in recent weeks, a sure sign of a “top”.

Will gold run up again? “Probably” is the only safe answer because gold is an extremely price-sensitive commodity with thousands of tonnes available every time the price rises too quickly.

For investors with an interest in gold (and that ought to be everyone) now might be a good time to sit on the sidelines or even trim their exposure because last week’s surge in the gold price changed the dynamics of the market.

Once the $US1000 mark was breached, gold investors, many simply active in the exchange-trade fund (ETF) market, were swamped by sellers of physical gold keen to cash out of surplus gold assets.

In one case, according to a US television report on Tuesday, the president of Gold and Jewelry Buyers of America, Jim Mataich, said he had even bought gold teeth last weekend at his store in Parma, Ohio.

“People were coming out of the woodwork to unload stuff just to get them through another month or two,” Mataich said. “Coins, rings, jewellery, heirlooms … even the gold teeth they had sitting in a drawer.”

That dramatic description, from a regional US pawn broker operating a shop called Cash-4-Gold, highlights the two-faced nature of gold, which is both a form of money and just another commodity used as a body adornment, by some industries, and in dentistry.

Until the $US1000 mark was cracked, gold was in its monetary mood, acting as a safe haven for investors fleeing most other investment classes. Over the weekend gold put on its commodity face with recession-hit households around the world cashing in everything from old bracelets to Granny’s teeth.

It was the high of $US1007.70 in New York last Friday that spooked the gold market, in a precise re-run of what happened 11 months ago.



On March 14 last year gold closed in London at $US1003.50 an ounce, peaked the next day at $US1011.25, then started a slow decline that took the price back to $US712 by October – a 29.9% slide.

That downward move was broken by the global financial crisis which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US, and “runs” on other US banks as the financial system teetered on collapse.

Between October and last Friday, as stockmarkets crashed around the world, the gold price soared by 41% in US dollar terms, and even more in other currencies. In Australia, the gold price passed the $1500 mark last week, but is now back around $1490.

It is reasonable to assume – unless you are a one-eyed gold addict who believes the end of the world is nigh – that the flood of gold scrap will continue to hit the market over the next few months thanks, in part, to the very reason it rose so quickly: fear of recession.

Investors controlled the leg up as they shifted cash out of banks and shares into gold. Households desperate to raise cash as the recession bites are now in control of the market – a classic tug of war between buyers and sellers.

To put the gold market into clearer focus consider what happened over the past two weeks to one of the world’s top gold analysts, Bart Melek, from the Canadian investment bank, BMO Capital Markets.

On February 9, as a preparatory document before BMO’s annual Global Metals and Mining investment conference in Florida, Melek published a report titled: A perfect storm brewing for gold.

No one who has followed the gold sector for many years, including me, could fault anything in that report, which concluded that gold should be “a strong performer for at least the next three years”.

But, in the detail of Melek’s report was this comment: “Gold appears to have run ahead of its main drivers; the US dollar is strengthening and disinflationary risks are growing in the short run.”



In other words, two critically important factors that underpin the gold price – fear of inflation eroding the value of paper (fiat) money, and a decline in the value of the US dollar – are missing in the latest speculative rush into gold, and away from other asset classes.

Melek added: “It is possible that gold will retrench below $US850, before trending up toward $US1000 later in the year.”

He was right. Just early, and it was the dash up (and over) the $US1000 mark that has caused gold advocates to draw back and for gold sellers to take control of the market, at least in the short term.

No one is tipping that gold will retreat back to $US712 as it did last year, but it would be reasonable to believe that a period of price contraction has started as surplus gold is absorbed by the market.

A table and a graph in Melek’s February 9 gold analysis are useful tools in understanding the dynamics of the gold market.







In the table (A), which is a gold supply and demand model, it can be seen that primary gold production (new gold from mines) has been in decline since hitting a peak of 2621 tonnes in 2003, and falling by 9% to 2385 tonnes (and perhaps rising slightly this year thanks to the lure of a high price).

Sticking with 2008 it can be seen that primary gold production was boosted by official sector (government) sales of 279 tonnes and 1108 tonnes of scrap to lift total gold supply of 3772 tonnes.





The importance of scrap in the equation (including Granny’s teeth) is shown by the fact that it represented 29.4% of total supply last year – and the higher the price rises the more scrap makes it to market.

On the demand side, equally interesting things have been happening. As the gold price has risen jewellery and industrial/dental demand has dropped, a classic example of price sensitivity.

Taking up the slack in demand has been investment, especially bars, coins and the new boy on the block, exchange-traded funds.

The importance of ETFs, products that hold gold in precise proportion to cash invested, is shown in the rise from just three tonnes in 2002 to 308 tonnes last year, a rise tracked in a separate graph (B) which, unfortunately uses troy ounces as its demand measure. Australia's biggest ETF is the ASX listed Gold Bullion Securities (GOLD).

Useful as the BMO graphics are to understanding what drives the gold market (up and down) there is a third illustration that highlights why gold should be part of a balanced investment portfolio.

Governments, the same people flooding the world with paper money as a means of beating back recession, remain true believers in gold.

According to the BMO table (using data provided by the World Gold Council, Bloomberg and other sources) governments around the world, despite some high profile sales, retain 26,354 tonnes of gold.

Interesting as that number is there are two other numbers that catch the eye. The US, with its 8133.5 tonnes of gold stuffed into Fort Knox, owns gold that represents 577% of its reserves – in other words, it’s the only positive asset on the US balance sheet.

But, the really important number for investors is at the bottom of the table – the 11.3% gold occupies as the total of all government reserves.



There’s a message in that percentage and one that I’ve written about before. Gold is an important part of any investment portfolio, private or public, with 10% being a rough guide to how much exposure you should have.

The tricky questions are how to buy gold (shares, bullion, ETFs) and when?

For purists, you cannot beat taking physical possession of gold, complete with the cost of safely storing it. However, well-run ETFs are a reasonable substitute though in truth they do carry an implied trust because all you are actually getting is a piece of paper, which says you’re entitled to a certain amount of gold – just don’t expect to be able to ever see it.

Gold shares come in all shapes and sizes, from the well-run and profitable producers such as Newcrest and Lihir, to the re-emerging producers such as Kingsgate and Resolute, and the new boys on the block, such as Centamin.

Interestingly, the new float game is not (yet) being played with gold despite the high price. There are no new floats listed with the ASX, just Ballarat South which tried (but failed) to float last year.

Most recent raisings have been for recapitalisation of existing gold miners such as Newmont and Newcrest, both of which attracted a flood of money. In the case of Newcrest, it asked for $500 million and took in $750 million, virtually overnight.

But, that was last week, before gold’s mad dash through the $US1000 mark with the next few months likely to see a retreat.

BMO’s Melek reckons the average price in the first half of this year will be about $US850 an ounce, a tip that implies a substantial fall. In the second half, the average is forecast to be $US925, with the same price tip applying to 2010.

Those prices are, obviously, one man’s view of the gold market. But it is a well-informed view that should not be ignored.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Very quiet in here. Is that the silent confidence thingo? :




Just waiting for the kiddies to finish with their games - at least they are predictable, letting everyone play their short game at the same time of day so we can get some sleep 

It's hit my lower channel line here (post 6434) so see if it holds or it needs more time to consolidate sideways or lower?


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Very quiet in here. Is that the silent confidence thingo? :




I have not been confident of golds price action since it breached the upside of my own 681-940ish trading channel in an overbought condition. 

However, I guess it all depends on how you draw the charts. I like mine because they closely match the price action on the other side of the March highs. Nonetheless, here are two from Chris V showing gold is still behaving nicely on a technical level. If you had followed his recommendations over the last three weeks you would not have had too much trouble. A few other goldbugs also dumping everything but physical at 1000 or even before.

From http://www.safehaven.com/article-12723.htm

They are a couple of days old so I have not attached them. Included below instead is the chart I use, which has made me far more money than it has lost (both short and long).

The trend/channel lines are all identical. You can ignore the fib numbers, I only included them to show the 50% retracement matching the trendline.

Also, the "golden cross" - 50MA moving strongly over 200MA - has not *yet* been invalidated (afaik 0 cases of the golden cross failing in gold market) and this remains strongly bullish imho. If the cross is invalidated very soon, then this would be strongly bearish for gold.

We have also entered stochastic overbought territory (with the RSI indicating some more downside to come) with thankfully no technical damage to the chart. 

If the stochastic can round down nicely now for another leg up that would conform best to my opinion (Chris V is looking for 900 and a reversal candle, and the lower Boll band provides some credence to this) but I recognise the possibility we may exit the channel to the downside, fill the gap at/near 850, and hopefully find strong resistance for another leg up from the 200MA.

Only time will tell.


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just waiting for the kiddies to finish with their games - at least they are predictable, letting everyone play their short game at the same time of day so we can get some sleep
> 
> It's hit my lower channel line here (post 6434) so see if it holds or it needs more time to consolidate sideways or lower?




Yep and a new game just arrived is the spreading of rumours



> Two rumors are starting to move around through the gold chat rooms. I wanted to give you a heads up so you can be prepared to quickly inform the community about them as you see fit. Both rumors have potential to shock weak gold holders into selling.
> 
> 
> Volcker replaces Timmy. This could lead to a kneejerk gold selloff (based on the past) and equity volatility in both directions.
> A gold exchange traders fund may have been holding bogus gold bars which have been fabricated by China. This piggybacks some phony Chinese gold coins that have shown up through an article in coin world. This would supposedly cause a selloff in GLD, therein frightening the community.




If the US$880 support holds (the uptick channel from end of Oct 08) then the current round of news should see the new high not far away.

Maybe very quiet at times, but always alert and wary.

cheers explod


----------



## solomon

From: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={3995BA80-B185-4D12-80D5-0F560285A487}

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of England on Thursday cut its key lending rate to an all-time low of 0.5% from 1%, and said it would begin buying assets worth up to 75 billion pounds in an effort to boost the money supply. End of Story

I think governments are getting the message that people are getting pretty pissed at all the money they are plunging into black holes and bankers' pockets. As a consequence they will move to the far less obvious and far more destructive measure of massively inflating the money supply. So I'm now seeing how the POG could very well be multiple times its current price in the next few years. But no doubt it will be a very bumpy ride! You could say I've seen the golden light.


----------



## Glen48

From Gary Gibson:
What’s going on? It’s a worldwide trend. Investors have been flocking to gold and silver. There’s a money migration going on. And I mean BIG money is migrating. It’s like those herds of zebras or wildebeests or gazelles in Africa. When they migrate, the earth shakes and the ground is just a moving kaleidoscope of hides and footprints. The dust clouds blow high into the sky.
Yes, the world economy might be in a recession. People across the world are worried about their job and security for their family. But other people with big bucks are scooping up gold and silver. Those buyers are looking for investment safety. 
Moneyed investors don’t trust the world’s governments or paper currencies. So they are going with gold and silver. The mines and mints are having trouble keeping up with demand. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs like, for example, SPDR Gold Shares, GLD are buying huge volumes of gold and silver. (And they ought to be buying more. At the margins, at least, it appears that even the ETFs are holding “paper” gold rights, as opposed to the real McCoy metal.)
Who’s Holding the Metal?
Let’s look at silver. In January 2006, the total silver held in ETFs was about 40 million ounces. By January of this year, 2009, the total silver in ETFs exceeds 280 million ounces. That’s an increase by a factor of seven in just three years.

The story with gold is just as dramatic. Who ever heard of a gold ETF until just a few years ago? But by the end of 2008, gold holdings of ETFs reached a record level of 1,090 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Thus, ETF holdings now exceed those of Switzerland and many other large and important nations. (Check the listing below.) In the fourth quarter of 2008, investors purchased ETF gold interests representing 96 tonnes of gold. (Far more than the total gold reserves of Australia.) This followed the purchase of an unprecedented 145 tonnes (more than the reserves of Saudi Arabia) in the previous quarter, according to the WGC. These are astonishing levels of demand, where there was almost none just a few years ago.
Gold seems to know what President Obama’s plan will do to the dollar…
Over the next two years, you’ll witness the greatest surge in gold prices in market history, at least 100% above where gold sits today, as I write this.
But… I’ve just discovered a way for you to sneak into the soaring gold market for next to nothing, with what I call “penny-per-ounce” gold.  
Gold Holding and Gold Hoarding
Much of the gold in the vaults of the worlds’ central banks has accumulated over many decades. Much of the U.S. government gold reserve, for example, dates from the national gold confiscation of 1933 under President Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt had a compliant Congress to do his bidding. Eventually, even the Supreme Court backed him up. So what’s that old expression? “It CAN happen here.”
Many other countries of the world are currently buying gold, fresh from the mine. Today, China is the world’s largest gold-producing nation, and its central bank is buying and building reserves. Russia, too, has a tradition of holding gold and today is acquiring gold from its own mine output and via purchases on international markets. Or look at tiny Qatar, a small nation in the middle of the Persian Gulf. Qatar had only 8 tonnes of gold about three years ago. Now it has 12 tonnes, an increase of 50% in a very short time. What do the Chinese, the Russians or the Qataris know? They know that they want gold. They can buy it. They will hold it. And they are hoarding it.
I won’t be surprised to see $3,000 gold.
Coins and ingots are the kinds of things you keep in your bank safe deposit box or in a well-hidden home safe. Some people keep them in their “second” home safe. Why a second safe? Well, the first safe is the one with a few hundred bucks of cash and some good-looking costume jewelry in it. You would open the first safe if a Rob broke into your house and held a gun to your head. (Sorry, I’m not kidding. We live in a tough world.)

And for as much as I urge you to own some gold or ingots, you should never talk about it. OK, you might tell a few family members or maybe a trusted friend or two. But the fact that you have a stash of real gold is too valuable to broadcast or advertise. As I said above, “It CAN happen here.” It already has happened here. It might happen again, if things get too rough out there.

For all the talk in Washington about getting the national economy back on track and spending under control, I think you still need to keep an eye on gold and silver. Get some. Own some. Hold some. 

Until we meet again,
Byron W. King


----------



## Trembling Hand

Glen who the hell is Gary Gibson??


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Volcker? Who cares? Let him try & put interest rates up in this climate, which was his greatest claim to inflation taming fame? All central bankers & treasuries have been effectively emasculated by their zero bound interest rates now, and the Oz bobble heads can cut but will the banks pass it on?

The 'velocity' of the gold price action the last few days suggested waning selling pressure and it looks to have bounced off the support nicely.

Scrap sales - eventually that too will fail to suppress - it's all about fiat money destruction/debasement on a global scale now?


----------



## GumbyLearner

solomon said:


> From: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={3995BA80-B185-4D12-80D5-0F560285A487}
> 
> LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of England on Thursday cut its key lending rate to an all-time low of 0.5% from 1%, and said it would begin buying assets worth up to 75 billion pounds in an effort to boost the money supply. End of Story
> 
> I think governments are getting the message that people are getting pretty pissed at all the money they are plunging into black holes and bankers' pockets. As a consequence they will move to the far less obvious and far more destructive measure of massively inflating the money supply. So I'm now seeing how the POG could very well be multiple times its current price in the next few years. But no doubt it will be a very bumpy ride! You could say I've seen the golden light.




Print in print :xmaswave

The Bank of England is to pump out 75 billion pounds sterling ($163.43 billion) of newly-printed money after slashing interest rates to a record-low 0.5% in a twin-pronged attack on the global credit crunch.

In an extraordinary bid to free Britain from its first recession in 18 years, the BoE said it would issue the equivalent of $US106 billion or 84 billion euros via so-called "quantitative easing" measures.

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...to-print-money--75b-pounds-20090306-8q8y.html


----------



## electronicmaster

Oh boy.


----------



## sinner

Sorry electronicmaster, can't view those videos at work!

Here is Mish latest on gold and HUI.

A prominent (and so far correct) deflationist bullish on gold. He also meets Trembling Hands "money where your mouth is" criteria in terms of those that not only called the slump but profited him and his clients from it.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/gold-hui-looking-good.html

In a deflation, purchasing power (money) is king. Gold is money, according to Mish.


----------



## GumbyLearner

The Inconvenient Debt


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

I have been up all night on shift and still cannot make my mind up on gold for the week.

A couple of days ago we reached the point I explained earlier. Bottom of the boll band, the 50MA and the psychologically important 900 level providing support for a (so far) small bounce. This has also generated a nice signal on the stochastic (assuming there is no damage to the chart in the next few hours).

The moving averages are starting to converge and are somewhat close to generating a buy signal for my discretionary gold trading strategy. However, it all is not sitting right with me, and beginning to feel very nervous about gold. I will not be trading gold next week and have already minimised my positions to only very long term buys as of last week.

We have moved up too far too fast and now what was clear to me since October has become murky.

The HUI is also at a crucial juncture right now. We already broke below the 50MA. I unfortunately doubt we will close above it tonight (even though there has been some strong moves up by the miners today, there is obviously strong selling pressure above the 50MA!), which could indicate the beginnings of a long term bearish trend. This is confirmed as the HUI continues to underperform gold.


----------



## GumbyLearner

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I have been up all night on shift and still cannot make my mind up on gold for the week.
> 
> A couple of days ago we reached the point I explained earlier. Bottom of the boll band, the 50MA and the psychologically important 900 level providing support for a (so far) small bounce. This has also generated a nice signal on the stochastic (assuming there is no damage to the chart in the next few hours).
> 
> The moving averages are starting to converge and are somewhat close to generating a buy signal for my discretionary gold trading strategy. However, it all is not sitting right with me, and beginning to feel very nervous about gold. I will not be trading gold next week and have already minimised my positions to only very long term buys as of last week.
> 
> We have moved up too far too fast and now what was clear to me since October has become murky.
> 
> The HUI is also at a crucial juncture right now. We already broke below the 50MA. I unfortunately doubt we will close above it tonight (even though there has been some strong moves up by the miners today, there is obviously strong selling pressure above the 50MA!), which could indicate the beginnings of a long term bearish trend. This is confirmed as the HUI continues to underperform gold.




Look sinner I hope you don't get rid of all your holdings. But you sound like the kind of guy who should hold onto them! If that's not the case, THE BAD NEWS IS OVER!


----------



## sinner

GumbyLearner said:


> Look sinner I hope you don't get rid of all your holdings. But you sound like the kind of guy who should hold onto them! If that's not the case, THE BAD NEWS IS OVER!




Hi GumbyLearner,

I have said it before and will say it again. What the hell do you know or are you talking about? Where do you even get your information from? Is it all sourced directly from Youtube nuts?

Gold has managed to save the gold bugs from themselves, despite their own stupidity.

Not you or any of the other goldbugs can explain why gold has been going up in price nor provide any valid reasoning for any such explanation. Until last month the lot of you were screaming hyperinflation is on its way. We hear talk of currency debasement but the USD continues to rise with gold. Gold is not rising and falling based on the indices or anything else that you claim.

I was trying to show people since I signed up to this site, how gold and the USD were not inversely correlated. This has turned out to be true since September but none of the gold bugs have anything to say about this or how it fits into their predictions for 4 digit gold.

They hold onto gold and their pre-crash arguments of why it is so great, *even though these arguments have been invalidated for months now*. In any other market, this would have left you all at a serious cash loss. Luckily gold has risen for other reasons (which I have tried to highlight many times now), and saved you from your own stupidity.

Why don't you explain to us all why I should take your advice and not sell my gold (even though I never said I was going to)?


----------



## explod

> Hi GumbyLearner,
> 
> I have said it before and will say it again. What the hell do you know or are you talking about? Where do you even get your information from? Is it all sourced directly from Youtube nuts?
> 
> Gold has managed to save the gold bugs from themselves, despite their own stupidity.




Fair bit of arrogance there on your part as well Sinner.   The gold bugs I know have been following a very good trend from 2002.   Short term stuff is not on many radar screens.



> Not you or any of the other goldbugs can explain why gold has been going up in price nor provide any valid reasoning for any such explanation. Until last month the lot of you were screaming hyperinflation is on its way. We hear talk of currency debasement but the USD continues to rise with gold. Gold is not rising and falling based on the indices or anything else that you claim.




And we can, gold is going up due to currency debasement.  The US dollar (at this time) is going up due to repatriation, margin calls and percieved safe haven (due to Wall Street jawboning, you sound a bit like them sometimes) buying and Asia, particularly China trying to protect thier trade and now just the treasuries they hold.   

Two recent gold spikes and the most recent, Thursday and Friday gold went up due to the stockmarkets collapsing.



> I was trying to show people since I signed up to this site, how gold and the USD were not inversely correlated. This has turned out to be true since September but none of the gold bugs have anything to say about this or how it fits into their predictions for 4 digit gold.




We do not need to be shown, we can all make our own choices and we like to read what everyone has to say without being too critical, that is how we help each other.  Sometimes of course we awake from slumber to stick up em, so to speak.   In my humble opinion the rise of the US dollar, particularly since as you say September last year is an abberation created by fear that will when it changes cause the US dollar to plunge much faster than it has risen (just like the Dow is) based on fundamentals, the US is broke and there is no productive value behind their economy anymore.



> They hold onto gold and their pre-crash arguments of why it is so great, even though these arguments have been invalidated for months now. In any other market, this would have left you all at a serious cash loss. Luckily gold has risen for other reasons (which I have tried to highlight many times now), and saved you from your own stupidity.




And my oath I am holding onto my gold, you try to buy it now, mine accumulated (since 2004 onwards) easily straight over the counter on the day (mind you)  Here in Aus they will only sell it now in overpriced one ounce coins.   And the pre-crash arguments; HOW HAVE THEY BEEN INVALIDATED ?



> Why don't you explain to us all why I should take your advice and not sell my gold (even though I never said I was going to)?




WHO IS GIVING ADVICE ?   it is illegal to do so here in Aus unless you are trained and licensed to do so.      Dont' be trapped by our sometimes vehement arguments for our particular stance which has nothing to do with giving advice.    And if you have gold to sell there will be plenty of takers well above the phoney comex rate.

Cheers on this wonderful Sunday

explod


----------



## Glen48

WHO IS GIVING ADVICE ?   it is illegal to do so here in Aus unless you are trained ..
Of course this doesn't apply to R E agents who can saddle you up with 100's K of debt...the only reason the USD is strong is because the rest are falling in a heap but the USD can't keep strong for ever if/ when G E folds 300K workers loose their jobs, GM thousands more if ever Gold was to go up it has to be this depression.
Next few weeks should tell...if no call me back and I will eat humble pie


----------



## GumbyLearner

sinner said:


> Hi GumbyLearner,
> 
> I have said it before and will say it again. What the hell do you know or are you talking about? Where do you even get your information from? Is it all sourced directly from Youtube nuts?
> 
> Gold has managed to save the gold bugs from themselves, despite their own stupidity.
> 
> Not you or any of the other goldbugs can explain why gold has been going up in price nor provide any valid reasoning for any such explanation. Until last month the lot of you were screaming hyperinflation is on its way. We hear talk of currency debasement but the USD continues to rise with gold. Gold is not rising and falling based on the indices or anything else that you claim.
> 
> I was trying to show people since I signed up to this site, how gold and the USD were not inversely correlated. This has turned out to be true since September but none of the gold bugs have anything to say about this or how it fits into their predictions for 4 digit gold.
> 
> They hold onto gold and their pre-crash arguments of why it is so great, *even though these arguments have been invalidated for months now*. In any other market, this would have left you all at a serious cash loss. Luckily gold has risen for other reasons (which I have tried to highlight many times now), and saved you from your own stupidity.
> 
> Why don't you explain to us all why I should take your advice and not sell my gold (even though I never said I was going to)?




So you think inflation will not be a problem in the near future?

Actually, maybe I should ask JP Morgan about how many short contracts during 2007 & 2008 they have held and executed over there on the phoney comex that explod mentioned? Oh and the bailout money that is now being paid directly to the phoney CD Swap gang. 

Can I ask sinner what is your definition of 'quantative easing'? Does it involve printing money or just trickling it down to the many end-users like consumers? If that be the case, why are the banks supposedly not lending to anyone? Many countries won't need their trashy cash when they start bartering for food.

http://povertynewsblog.blogspot.com/2009/01/nations-begin-to-barter-for-food.html

And by the way where do you get your info from a chart and an economists argument about deflation? You tell me a bloody economist who has correctly forecast this downturn or a bank mouthpiece who hasn't talked down how dire the state of the banking system really is in.

What the hell would I know? 
I know that banks should be put on inquiry by the nature of the transaction they enter into with a borrower. I know that this has traditionally been *THEIR* responsibility for a couple of millenia now. This isnt a conspiracy this is called sink or swim. If you are lending to the illiqiud, you deserve to become illiquid. 

I think they have called it Prudential banking practice in the past. Now they call it fiscal stimilus and its been abdicated for taxpayers to pay for the bankers who ****ed-up. I want to have their cake and eat it too! Crappy loans they purchased from door-to-door salesman which they then repackaged and sold to Wall St bums. Australia is just a sideshow and we have suffered because of the distribution of this garbage from the States and Europe. 

On the 2009 predicitions thread I said there would be more IMF bailouts. That's all. I'm not a know-it-all and it is almost impossible to plan one week to the next when the bankers are not required to come clean about how far down **** creek they really are.

Tough luck I say and they can keep their ****ty ass worthless policies that will debase the purchasing power of the currency because of their own reckless lending practices around the world.

I started investing years ago in commodities and will continue to in this kind of environment where the bankers of this world are as transparent as the turds that I flush down the dunny. It hurts more when the celebutards blindly make fantasy out of the current financial destruction occuring in reality.

So you can keep your chart analysis, moving averages, double-tops, bollinger bands and can inform me anytime over the next few weeks when the banks of Europe have to explain the losses in Eastern Europe. I will wait patiently for WHEN and WHAT parts of the facts are revealed in due course.

This is not financial advice.
Just my opinion.
DYOR


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I have been up all night on shift and still cannot make my mind up on gold for the week.
> 
> .




Oh.. and by the way....   when you have observed Gumby's last post I suggest you get a bit more sleep through the night so that you can begin to absorb a bit of realiaty.

In todays Privateer, just a very small excerpt of reality  (should be on both the gold and the Imminent thread),  (they are one and the same to me though).   

Fannie Mae:   







> ...asked the US Treasury for $US 15.2 Billion in capital and raised the possibility of requesting more aid after a sixth consecutive quarterly loss drove its net worth to zero!    Below aero - it is broke!   Fannie and Freddie's combined books of business during December stood at $US 5.319 TRILLION.



TRILLION.   he goes on with firm after firm after firm who comprised the wealth of the US,   they are all broke, the US and the whole financial world as we know it it broke,   factories supplying each other in cross trade have stopped, within months there will be empty shelves and many of the Supermarkets will be closed.  Spare us Sinner, have some sleep and then tell us what to do, we want to know.    Sure you cant' eat gold but what else is best to put your money in.  I have stored up on backed beans but there is a limit.

In fact I am with Gumby, but that in itself does not help our situation.

cheers again on this wonderful Sunday (the sun rose)

explod


----------



## Porper

explod said:


> , within months there will be empty shelves and many of the Supermarkets will be closed.  I have stored up on backed beans but there is a limit.




Blimey explod, I know we are in a recession but let's not get carried away.

If things get this bad you best sign off, get off your bum and enjoy the last few months of life as you know it.The world isn't coming to an end , things will just be tough for a few years.

Now on to the topic, Gold is going down in my opinion, at the very least for the best part of this year.Purely from an Elliot wave perspective, no fundamental reason.


----------



## Glen48

With all this doom and gloom GE GM going down 650K loose their jobs USA broke and paying $1M a second in interest, Gold  should worthy more power than 10 pussy's???


----------



## explod

> Porper Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> 
> Quote:
> Originally Posted by explod
> , within months there will be empty shelves and many of the Supermarkets will be closed. I have stored up on backed beans but there is a limit.
> 
> 
> Blimey explod, I know we are in a recession but let's not get carried away. Now on to the topic, Gold is going down in my opinion, at the very least for the best part of this year.Purely from an Elliot wave perspective, no fundamental reason.




Not sure of your time frame, I have no medium or short term idea on gold and maybe not a lot of long term.   Money is losing value, most medium to longer term investors have lost 50% in the last year or so;  I just think gold is a good palce to park money till we can see where the world goes after it pans out.

Elliot wave, well there is consideraqble argument always in this, I liken it to a taught wire, push it up far enough and it will want to come down, it over shoots and then returns when the pressure again gets too great.  Seasonal, financial and reporting cycles play a part as well.  As a matter of fact an analyst by the name of Alf Field postulates ( on Elliot Wave theory) that gold is soon to go to $US 3,500 an ounce, we will wait and see.  Find him and his articles ajfield@attglobal.net , the article to which I refer was reprinted at USAGOLD,  Alf has been close to the mark with his gold direction but he also looks at other technicals and fundamentals.



> Glen48 Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> With all this doom and gloom GE GM going down 650K loose their jobs USA broke and paying $1M a second in interest, Gold should worthy more power than 10 pussy's???




Not young or fit enough to consider the pussy's anymore so I suppose just the baked beans to take me out.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Porper said:


> The world isn't coming to an end , things will just be tough for a few years.
> 
> Now on to the topic, Gold is going down in my opinion, at the very least for the best part of this year.Purely from an Elliot wave perspective, no fundamental reason.




I agree Porper. I don't think the world will end as we know it but I do think that the system of capital has been turned on it's head. Many people thought Ben Chifley was pretty kooky because he wanted to Nationalize the banks. Funny now that many of the doyens of international finance are now being rescued by Government's around the world, an approach they despised as socialist and wrong in the past.

As a capitalist who believes the democratic system is the best in comparison to all others to borrow from the great man Winston Churchill. I think it's difficult to predict further losses and their impact on the market. But certainly the banking system ATM is a con and value is being eroded across the board.

However, explod is correct and one of the better places to protect your store of wealth is gold. In an environment of non-disclosure I prefer Bernstein to Graham, when it comes to the strength of gold.

This is not financial advice.
Just an opinion
DYOR


----------



## Glen48

EX Policeman 
Maybe you should work out a ratio on how much a can of BB's are worth in Gold to a 1 BB (Chinese for pussy) so when the demise starts we can know our wealth when we fill in our Tax return.
Sorry to hear jo I is no longer important to you but it must be good to be free of the pussy power. 
Now back to Gold .gggggggggggrrrrrrrrrrrrr


----------



## Glen48

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83UUkiLyd0U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gz8v2xnWaLE


----------



## GumbyLearner

Frauds and Ponzi schemes to surface within gold and oil markets.

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Di...h=March2009&file=Business_News20090308802.xml


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> Not sure of your time frame, I have no medium or short term idea on gold and maybe not a lot of long term.   Money is losing value, most medium to longer term investors have lost 50% in the last year or so;  I just think gold is a good palce to park money till we can see where the world goes after it pans out.
> 
> 
> Surely you've got this backwards most investors have lost value as there shares have halved or if they invested in cash they have made serious money as it is now worth twice as much. Nobody seems to think of investing in cash even now after the biggest sharemarket correction for a long time Why if were facing deflation would you invest in gold (its an inflation hedge )
> I know printing money is usually a recipe for inflation but not this time because we have had credit inflation for several years and all printing money is going to do is stave the deflation of a little not stop it. We'll know in plenty of time if we have inflation as both gold and interest rates will take off, otherrwise we are in for major deleveraging with all prices of assets going down and cash going up in value or what it can buy, and this will continue till everybody thinks cash is an investment again IMO and nobody is interested in either shares or gold


----------



## explod

> Surely you've got this backwards most investors have lost value as there shares have halved or if they invested in cash they have made serious money as it is now worth twice as much. Nobody seems to think of investing in cash even now after the biggest sharemarket correction for a long time Why if were facing deflation would you invest in gold (its an inflation hedge )




The great thing about gold is that it protects against both inflation and deflation.   The deflation we have is of banks and businesses losing value, that is reflected in the 44% loss last year in the average world markets, this year allready we are down 20% on world markets.   Gold however is holding up against both markets and the value of money.  In this shorter term the $us has gained some but, as I pointed out a few posts back, for very good reasons, this will be temporary and gold will break up further. 

The deflation has really only accellerated from the crash in October 2008, there is more to come with further stock market falls yet but there is evidence emerging (and the Aussie Reserve signaled it last week) that deflation and the lowering of interest rates is at an end.  Of course in many places they are so low that they cannot lower more.  There is also clear evidence that money is tight and hard to obtain.  Does not this perhaps signal the commencement of inflation from the tangible assets side (food and necissities) and with the printing of money commenced by the UK the deflation of money which will make gold skyrocket.

One of the problems you have old pal is the the Keynes methods of 1936, of pouring more in and spending our way out is collapsing.  The world has never been in this situation before, ever, so the old rules and sayings may not apply.

While we have such uncertain times I feel safest sitting with gold.  When inflation becomes rampant for real assets I may then consider going back into some property also.  At the moment we will see.  Have a ponder on the following chart, courtesy the "Privateer" newsletter.



> Market March 27-02                Mar-6-09 Result Percent
> $US Gold $302.20               $942.70            +$640.50 +211.95%
> $US Index    118.91                      88.55            -30.36 -25.53%
> Dow          10427                            6626               -3801 -36.45%


----------



## sinner

I have no reply to any of the comments posted here.

They just highlight how silly both the hardcore deflationists (can't recognise gold is money) and hardcore inflationists (can't recognise deflation even if it bites them in the ****) arguments are. 

Neither hold any water (otherwise they would be reflected by market prices), yet both camps still cling to their argument.

From now on I will just ignore silly comments by both camps instead of trying to put forth a rational viewpoint thanks to the response received in this thread.

All you will get from me now is a quiet chart or two.

I have finally added a new trendline on my gold 1h chart (first new addition since 30th Dec) at 5am on the 7th March.

Tonights price action has confirmed this new line very very well and negated any chance of a strong upward move for several days!


----------



## sinner

Just wanted to clarify one point which really bugged me, gold has *not* been rallying against market slumps in the last two weeks. In fact it has been selling off with the broader market, with continuously declining open interest.

I challenge anyone to prove this statement as incorrect.

We have just broken below a major point on my chart, the 100SMA. Gold-bugs beware.


----------



## Glen48

The more bad news the lower it goes????
Having remained in a very tight band below $940/oz throughout the EU am session and right up until very recently, [GOLD] has broken lower to test early $920/oz levels on spot. The move has come against the backdrop of the latest recovery in stock markets, which has diminished the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven instrument, while investors put some money back in to equities. Note, however, the current rebound remains fragile, like so many others recently,


----------



## projack

joeyr46 said:


> Surely you've got this backwards most investors have lost value as there shares have halved or if they invested in cash they have made serious money as it is now worth twice as much. Nobody seems to think of investing in cash even now after the biggest sharemarket correction for a long time Why if were facing deflation would you invest in gold (its an inflation hedge )
> I know printing money is usually a recipe for inflation but not this time because we have had credit inflation for several years and all printing money is going to do is stave the deflation of a little not stop it. We'll know in plenty of time if we have inflation as both gold and interest rates will take off, otherrwise we are in for major deleveraging with all prices of assets going down and cash going up in value or what it can buy, and this will continue till everybody thinks cash is an investment again IMO and nobody is interested in either shares or gold




So basically what you say; U.S. debt is the safe haven?

So if we start producing things only few people wants and the price of those goods drops, then the purchasing power of your money will increase because nobody will buy those goods. In this case nobody spends money because cash is such a great investment, so the government is OK to print money to save you from the increasing purchasing power of you cash, and you can buy those previously unwanted goods again on the original prices because so much more money is around.
I’ve got it now.


----------



## Glen48

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37fcba70-0...0779fd2ac.html


----------



## GumbyLearner

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst results ever in 2008, said the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate recovery may lead to inflation higher than the 1970s. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azL2a7n4_.Wc&refer=home


----------



## explod

> sinner Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Tonights price action has confirmed this new line very very well and negated any chance of a strong upward move for several days!




Have no problem with that, the short term move looks correct, my time frame is different.

What got up the skirt was your criticism of Gumbylearner.   We are all entitled to our views and none of us are necessarily correct at any time.   The curent financial mess and the price of gold is like that this time.  

You analysis is in fact very good and informative.

cheers explod


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Have no problem with that, the short term move looks correct, my time frame is different.
> 
> What got up the skirt was your criticism of Gumbylearner.   We are all entitled to our views and none of us are necessarily correct at any time.   The curent financial mess and the price of gold is like that this time.
> 
> You analysis is in fact very good and informative.
> 
> cheers explod




Even though I said I would not reply you have once again goaded me into anger.

GumbyLearner deserves to be called out on his propaganda spreading junk. You also.

He could not explain the net short positions by the big instos in gold if he ever even tried. Just seeing them net short on the COMEX is enough for him to cry conspiracy. 

What happened to the COMEX busting in December? Never happened did it.

Despite the fact that the gold price has been rising against this net short position for almost a decade (which completely invalidates his and your conspiracy theory), it also completely ignores the fact that just like other forms of money (*of which gold is one*) it must be lent out to make a profit. The same way central banks lease their money, they lease gold. Of course they will be net short! This is the job of the dealer! Do you think the bank makes money by leaving their cash in accounts? No! They loan it out! Just like gold!

Otherwise the natural rate of debasement for gold is 2% per annum, roughly the same as a basket of world currencies today. Also remember, international central bank holdings in gold is roughly 13% of total reserves and holdings, just like most portfolios should have! So these currencies are 13% backed by gold price!

He also claims quantitative easing as another reason gold will go up, but he cannot explain this measure at all or the mechanisms behind it or why any of this has any relation to gold whatsoever. This unchecked and willful ignorance sickens me. How can you claim quantitative easing will cause gold price to go up when every word you spout shows you don't even know what quantitative easing is or how it works.

I think the funniest thing of all is that all of you crazies are happy enough to rant against the banks and how they will all fall over and everything but you've still got a brokerage account with one or the other of them, probably long a bunch of gold miners which you expect to cash in for *fiat* at a huge profit.

i.e. you apparently detest fiat and the banks, but are happy to hold trading accounts and fiat backed shares on a fiat market with the goal of playing this market for a fiat profit. You say there is nowhere safe to put your money but gold explod, yet I know you hold or held gold mining shares since September. This is a blatant hypocrisy.

Just look at this quote



> And by the way where do you get your info from a chart and an economists argument about deflation? You tell me a bloody economist who has correctly forecast this downturn or a bank mouthpiece who hasn't talked down how dire the state of the banking system really is in.




I can name several contrarian and Austrian school analysts who picked the downturn (correct), forecast deflation (correct), forecast USD increase (correct), forecast gold increase (correct), went short financials (correct).

But I won't. You have to go back and look through my posts if you want to see this as I have spent countless hours researching and linking to spoon-feed you like children while you post links to silly youtube nuts. Why should I contribute to your willful ignorance any further?

Instead you follow the nutter camp who claimed hyperinflation (incorrect), USD collapse (incorrect), commodities boom (incorrect), oil boom (incorrect) and only got two right: gold increase and short financials. What a joke.

So you can see just how gold has saved the nuts from themselves. You yourself claimed gold was rallying against market collapse but there is no proof of this since 1007 gold as I have challenged in my last above post. *Gold has been selling off with the broader market with rapidly declining open interest.*

If you are all so sure of hyperinflation, you should be short treasuries, not long gold! But not one of you has the guts to do this even though if your claims were only halfway correct you would be as rich as a Saudi oil prince by now.

The least funny thing is that I have repeatedly said all this before to GumbyLearner, he just ignored me and spouted more of the same crap which simply does not hold water. None of the mods care because they are so used to seeing irrational junk being spouted on this thread by the goldbugs. 

This is the only thread on ASF where people can talk baseless trash and get away with it.

EDIT: Oh one more bone to pick.

explod you say you will be holding onto your physical because it will be impossible to get more once you sell it (or pay a "ridiculous" premium). Yeah right! How long have you even been buying gold? I have been a long term buyer (since I was as young as 5 I have held gold because of my heritage) and many of the "rational goldbugs" aka Austrian school traders I speak have been buying gold since it was 200 or less. This is the same premium as it was last year and all the years before that. 

I can walk into Aus Bullion and buy an ounce of minted 999 gold coin or bar on the spot without filling out any forms or anything. The premium is 14% for 1oz and decreases as your purchase size increases. If you buy a 5oz bar the premium is less again and less again for a 10oz bar, etcetera. 

There is *no* shortage in physical gold, just a production bottleneck for the increased demand in small denominations. 400oz LBMA bars are in fluid availability all over the world. You can take delivery on COMEX or CBOT bars just like any other commodity, but it will be in 400oz bars.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sinner LOL!


----------



## sinner

This chart is SPDR GLD and 30y bond yield (which moves inverse to bond price, i.e. bonds up yields down).

Goldbugs are suggesting a flood exit from bonds i.e. "bond bubble". Even Marc Faber is short bonds and I like him. In my RYJUX thread I suggested it might be a good time to get in short too (double short in fact). Now I am not so sure: gold is forecasting bond strength *now*.

i.e. we should see a drop in yield from here.

(Although if you are a pairs trader you would go short gold and short bonds here)


----------



## Bushman

sinner said:


> Instead you follow the nutter camp who claimed hyperinflation (incorrect), USD collapse (incorrect), commodities boom (incorrect), oil boom (incorrect) and only got two right: gold increase and short financials. What a joke.
> 
> .




LOL; I reckon go short 'fear', long 'optimism'. Its purely a psychological play at the moment. I like this description of the current action in treasuries and gold - the Fear Bubble. 





www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2009/0309.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> This is the only thread on ASF where people can talk baseless trash and get away with it.
> 
> EDIT: Oh one more bone to pick.




Oh, I don't know about that, I do it all the time on several threads and never get a speeding ticket 

My advise would be to have a good sleep after nightshift, then post your often welcome & insightful thoughts? You do yourself no favours denigrating _everyone, _as you seem not to have made any distinction between posters at all_?_


----------



## GumbyLearner

sinner said:


> Even though I said I would not reply you have once again goaded me into anger.
> 
> GumbyLearner deserves to be called out on his propaganda spreading junk. You also.
> 
> He could not explain the net short positions by the big instos in gold if he ever even tried. Just seeing them net short on the COMEX is enough for him to cry conspiracy.
> 
> What happened to the COMEX busting in December? Never happened did it.
> 
> Despite the fact that the gold price has been rising against this net short position for almost a decade (which completely invalidates his and your conspiracy theory), it also completely ignores the fact that just like other forms of money (*of which gold is one*) it must be lent out to make a profit. The same way central banks lease their money, they lease gold. Of course they will be net short! This is the job of the dealer! Do you think the bank makes money by leaving their cash in accounts? No! They loan it out! Just like gold!
> 
> Otherwise the natural rate of debasement for gold is 2% per annum, roughly the same as a basket of world currencies today. Also remember, international central bank holdings in gold is roughly 13% of total reserves and holdings, just like most portfolios should have! So these currencies are 13% backed by gold price!
> 
> He also claims quantitative easing as another reason gold will go up, but he cannot explain this measure at all or the mechanisms behind it or why any of this has any relation to gold whatsoever. This unchecked and willful ignorance sickens me. How can you claim quantitative easing will cause gold price to go up when every word you spout shows you don't even know what quantitative easing is or how it works.
> 
> I think the funniest thing of all is that all of you crazies are happy enough to rant against the banks and how they will all fall over and everything but you've still got a brokerage account with one or the other of them, probably long a bunch of gold miners which you expect to cash in for *fiat* at a huge profit.
> 
> i.e. you apparently detest fiat and the banks, but are happy to hold trading accounts and fiat backed shares on a fiat market with the goal of playing this market for a fiat profit. You say there is nowhere safe to put your money but gold explod, yet I know you hold or held gold mining shares since September. This is a blatant hypocrisy.
> 
> Just look at this quote
> 
> 
> 
> I can name several contrarian and Austrian school analysts who picked the downturn (correct), forecast deflation (correct), forecast USD increase (correct), forecast gold increase (correct), went short financials (correct).
> 
> But I won't. You have to go back and look through my posts if you want to see this as I have spent countless hours researching and linking to spoon-feed you like children while you post links to silly youtube nuts. Why should I contribute to your willful ignorance any further?
> 
> Instead you follow the nutter camp who claimed hyperinflation (incorrect), USD collapse (incorrect), commodities boom (incorrect), oil boom (incorrect) and only got two right: gold increase and short financials. What a joke.
> 
> So you can see just how gold has saved the nuts from themselves. You yourself claimed gold was rallying against market collapse but there is no proof of this since 1007 gold as I have challenged in my last above post. *Gold has been selling off with the broader market with rapidly declining open interest.*
> 
> If you are all so sure of hyperinflation, you should be short treasuries, not long gold! But not one of you has the guts to do this even though if your claims were only halfway correct you would be as rich as a Saudi oil prince by now.
> 
> The least funny thing is that I have repeatedly said all this before to GumbyLearner, he just ignored me and spouted more of the same crap which simply does not hold water. None of the mods care because they are so used to seeing irrational junk being spouted on this thread by the goldbugs.
> 
> This is the only thread on ASF where people can talk baseless trash and get away with it.
> 
> EDIT: Oh one more bone to pick.
> 
> explod you say you will be holding onto your physical because it will be impossible to get more once you sell it (or pay a "ridiculous" premium). Yeah right! How long have you even been buying gold? I have been a long term buyer (since I was as young as 5 I have held gold because of my heritage) and many of the "rational goldbugs" aka Austrian school traders I speak have been buying gold since it was 200 or less. This is the same premium as it was last year and all the years before that.
> 
> I can walk into Aus Bullion and buy an ounce of minted 999 gold coin or bar on the spot without filling out any forms or anything. The premium is 14% for 1oz and decreases as your purchase size increases. If you buy a 5oz bar the premium is less again and less again for a 10oz bar, etcetera.
> 
> There is *no* shortage in physical gold, just a production bottleneck for the increased demand in small denominations. 400oz LBMA bars are in fluid availability all over the world. You can take delivery on COMEX or CBOT bars just like any other commodity, but it will be in 400oz bars.




And you need to be called out on the fact that you have deflected debate 
from the banks to your knowledge of T/A.

What at the age of 5 you first invested in bullion? Couldn't they stop you with the cryptonite back then Superboy? 

I'll accept you have a ton of knowledge and I'm not knocking you personally.

Just let me know when I can short some financials! Then I will post some charts for you!

Do you know anything about Pyramid Building Society or Quintex? How can an outsider protect themselves when the *"propaganda"* (as you put it) isn't revealed by media sources until the very last minute? In an Australian context, I consider these as micro case studies of what is currently occuring in world financial insto's. It is also the reason that Australian regulation of the banks has held up well in this environment as opposed to others. But it still doesn't solve the global financial issues.  

I better leave the *"propoganda"* to well-educated and informed experts. 

Noticed last week the 17th US bank of 2009 was closed. 
www.bankimplode.com

This is not financial advice
DYOR


----------



## explod

Have to remember G/L that we have the propaganda of "them" and the insitutions which has bred "our" propaganda and then  we have Sinner who says he speak the truth but cause we are now gun shy of the PROPAGANDA we suspect that he may represent the mob that started all the propaganda in the first place.

I cannot work out a chart for that but trend seems to be up.

On topic, looks like you have called the short term gold trend correct sinner, its going down today.

cheers explod


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> *Gold has been selling off with the broader market with rapidly declining open interest.*




Where do you get your OI data from?

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/bankparticipation/index.htm

(work in progress, is it available anywhere else? http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pU-CyOZ-EOdqC_X01FRv1RA)


----------



## Trembling Hand

A nice pretty chart here,

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/cotcharts/GC


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus, here is the numbers, fresh off your provided data, if you disagree. Column #1 is Month, Column #2 is Put/Call Ratio, Column #3 is Short Fut/Long Fut ratio.

We can usually use put/call ratio  column as the "normaliser" for the short/long ratio column because most of the bank movement is done on the COMEX (futs).

Month	Put/Call	Long/Short	Normalised (A * B)
Sept	0.56	1.74	0.97
Oct	0.62	4.12	2.54
Nov	0.58	2.11	1.23
Dec	0.56	2.63	1.47
Jan	0.56	3.48	1.94
Feb	0.47	4.14	1.93
Mar	0.53	4.28	2.26

Increasing ratio here means decreasing bank longs as a ratio of shorts. Unfortunately TH pretty chart does not highlight this massive ratio change from previous months.

Sorry if I offended you in any way Uncle Festivus, I value your postings!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sinner can you explain your thinking. why are you using the options OI instead of the futs


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Sinner can you explain your thinking. why are you using the options OI instead of the futs




that's a normal picture at this point TH the commercials selling to the Johny come latelys. Gold really hit a wall at the 1k point.

nice chart!


----------



## sinner

Sorry TH not sure I understand you. I am not "using" anything instead of anything else? Only presenting the data as a ratio.

There are three decimal columns above: the first is put/call (options), the second is short/long (futures) and the third is the multiple of the previous two.

You can use whichever you wish 

EDIT: Forgot to say good chart TH, highlights how the banks are ensuring there is enough bids on both sides for a liquid market.


----------



## joeyr46

Years since I looked at CFTC but last peak short commercials coincided with meaningful top July 15th and this peak slightly lower and slightly less OI suggests  Good correction for a while (down)


----------



## highonoctane

Hi All,
Am considering buying some physical Gold and Silver/Platinum to sit on untill the share market truely bottoms and becomes tradable for an amateur like myself. The idea would be to buy more gold as my funds allow over that period.

Now I dont know a whole heap about what will potentially happen to gold or AUD in the future, but I'm reading alot of articles (on daily reckoning and other financial/economy analysis sites) recomending it.

I'm concerned, however, that the AUD might appreciate against the greenback faster that the gold will (hense wiping out any profit)

Anyone care to shed some light on where you think gold prices and the AUD will be at in a year or 2? 
In your opinions, would this be a wise way to invest a few grand for example?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Just doodling with the technicals, and does not constitute advise.

Most of us? know that gold rewards those who are patient and usually likes to do the wedgy thing in minor & major cycles, so it looked to me that it is possibly establishing the mother of all wedges in the bull so far. It would also line up with seasonal strength and weakness periods, and also a much hoped for, much hyped for, bear market rally in pleb shares, out to July/August? (Or similar to the first great depression ie dead cat bounce rally before the final capitulation?) Or things might get so bad that the $US does finally capitulate and all bets, and analysis, are off?

Which means in the short term, negative consolidation shall we say? 

Failing that, anyone care for a double top?

Anyone got a more robust EW set up to concur with this?

All the while climbing a wall of worry and a bearish gold bug sentiment, disappointed that it failed at $1k - 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Contrarian-analysis-current-gold-market/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6AA73CD%2D45EB%2D48D2%2D93F4%2DB86D4C5EE2AD%7D&dist=SecMostRead


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> All the while climbing a wall of worry




Good one. its been a while since i heard that gem.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Good one. its been a while since i heard that gem.



I was meaning the goldies will be/are worrying this time  ie gold bug sentiment is pretty low for the current price, even though the AU price is still giving local miners bonanza windfall profit margins at $1450/oz?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I was meaning the goldies will be/are worrying this time  ie gold bug sentiment is pretty low for the current price, even though the AU price is still giving local miners bonanza windfall profit margins at $1450/oz?




Yeah I know what you are saying. i just mean that its a gem that I haven't heard since ........ early 07.

How things change.


----------



## Glen48

Seems to me while we have deflation no one wants to get into Gold and sitting back looking at the WOW, I did read were Norway is starting to worry about inflation I suppose it all depends what time a country goes in to a recession before inflation becomes a problem in that country.....now what colour to pain that wall so I can watch the paint dry???


----------



## highonoctane

thanks for the comments,
Have been doing a bit more research killing time at work, most analists are predicting a decline for first half of 09, so I might save my cash for a few months yet


----------



## Conza88

Gold is heading up. All commodities will. 

Fiat is getting printed like crazy.


----------



## sinner

We have broken through the psychologically important 900 level tonight.

No technical chart for this post since all the rules are still in play. We need to see buyers move in at this point or the trading channel will be broken and we will probably go to fill the 850 gap (as I have mentioned previously).

Trembling Hand, still unsure if I miscommunicated to you or what as you haven't clarified your question. Apologies for my poor internet communication skills.

I have worked 60 hours in 5 days.

Bedtime.


----------



## projack

sinner said:


> He also claims quantitative easing as another reason gold will go up, but he cannot explain this measure at all or the mechanisms behind it or why any of this has any relation to gold whatsoever. This unchecked and willful ignorance sickens me. How can you claim quantitative easing will cause gold price to go up when every word you spout shows you don't even know what quantitative easing is or how it works.




Anyone can explain what quantitative easing is?
Some of us asking if quantitative easing is;

Payment of the last resort in a Ponzi-scheme economy? (Consumer debt was counted as a deposit by the bank that conjured the money, and they added that amount to their reserves to lend 9 times that amount!)
Robbing Peter to pay Paul?
Perfume that will help the smell for a little while but at the end of the day the stink is too much for our thought to be artistic masterpieces to remain displayed on our walls?

Some people think it is humorous,
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/king-unveils-radical-plan-to-****-britain-into-middle-of-next-week-200903061625/
but some see it tragically.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide...tarvation-food


----------



## doctorj

UBS estimate potential upside in gold of USD2,500/oz - UBS report available in post #35 here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14387


----------



## michael_selway

doctorj said:


> UBS estimate potential upside in gold of USD2,500/oz - UBS report here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14387




Yep looks good

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=769646
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-to-hit-$1-500-Silver-to-zoom-to-$25-15876-3-1.html



> UBS recommendation fails to lift gold
> 
> By Javier Blas in London , Financial Times, 10 Mar 2009
> 
> UBS told investors on Tuesday to increase the weight of gold in their portfolios, warning that bullion prices could soar because the prospects of either deflation or inflation were "becoming more extreme".
> 
> The Swiss bank, one of the most active gold dealers, warned of "a potential upside of $2,500 an ounce" as some hedge fund investors who made money last year by betting against investment banks are now buying gold as a way of betting against central banks.
> 
> "The current environment is one which can best be characterised as having a 'low margin of error' for central bankers; with the prospects for deflation or inflation as becoming more extreme," said Daniel Brebner, an analyst at UBS in London.
> 
> "Given the broad uncertainties in the current macro climate we believe that investors should look to gold given its historic tendency to act as a hedge against these risks."
> 
> In London, spot gold prices on Tuesday were lower as jewellery demand, traditionally the backbone of gold consumption, remained lacklustre.
> 
> Bullion fell to $910 a troy ounce, down from Monday's last quote in New York of $920.95 an ounce.
> 
> A bet on gold is essentially a bet against all paper currencies. The gold bulls include David Einhorn, founder of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, who last year came under the spotlight for his short selling of shares in Lehman Brothers, after arguing that the bank did not have enough capital to offset its exposure to falling property prices. Other funds looking at gold include Eton Park and TPG-Axon, investors said.
> 
> UBS said that downside risks to gold prices were limited to about $500 an ounce, or less than 50 per cent below the current price, while the upside risk was for a surge of 170 per cent above current prices, to trade at $2,500 an ounce.
> 
> Other commodities markets were mostly higher on Tuesday, with oil consolidating its recent gains. Nymex April West Texas Intermediate rose 56 cents to $47.63 a barrel while Brent moved 99 cents higher to $45.12 a barrel.
> 
> Olivier Jakob, of Swiss-based consultancy Petromatrix, said that while WTI continued to make a steady advance upwards, it was starting to enter the stronger resistance area of the $50 mark and the technical level of the 100 day moving average at about $48.
> 
> In spite of the rise in oil prices, natural gas prices moved lower. Nymex April natural gas fell to $3.826 per million British thermal unit, down 3.9 cents on the day. On Monday, natural gas prices hit an intraday low of $3.809, the lowest since late 2002.
> 
> On the London Metal Exchange, base metals were mixed, with copper, the bellwether of the sector, posting a 1 per cent increase on the day to $3,600 a tonne. Copper stocks at LME warehouses fell 3,325 tonnes to 518,700 tonnes, continuing the downward trend seen in the past 10 days.
> 
> Agriculture commodities moved higher ahead of this week's monthly report on supply, demand and inventories from the US department of agriculture. CBOT March corn rose 3 cents to $3.60 ¼ a bushel while CBOT March soyabean rose 11 ½ cents to $8.92 ½ a bushel. The rise was capped by concerns about the economic crisis impact on agriculture commodities consumption, particularly in the livestock sector.


----------



## GumbyLearner

projack said:


> Anyone can explain what quantitative easing is?
> Some of us asking if quantitative easing is;
> 
> Payment of the last resort in a Ponzi-scheme economy? (Consumer debt was counted as a deposit by the bank that conjured the money, and they added that amount to their reserves to lend 9 times that amount!)
> Robbing Peter to pay Paul?
> Perfume that will help the smell for a little while but at the end of the day the stink is too much for our thought to be artistic masterpieces to remain displayed on our walls?
> 
> Some people think it is humorous,
> http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/king-unveils-radical-plan-to-****-britain-into-middle-of-next-week-200903061625/
> but some see it tragically.
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide...tarvation-food




Quantitative easing explained in 108 seconds.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7924506.stm


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

I am going to visit my parents tonight. Should be fun.

Am I allowed to try and make a forecast for tonight?

920 then 882ish.

Commentary when I get home.


----------



## solomon

I seem to remember 880 being a significant technical level on the recent way up to $1000 and so it is probably significant on the way down. If we break 880 it could be very bearish.


----------



## sinner

Sorry yes, I wanted to add there is a probability of a 50% retrace to fill the 850 gap.


----------



## sinner

Bit fat invalidation of my forecast last night in the second half of COMEX trading last night with a bounce up but no close above the 23.6% Fib retrace.

What does this mean? Despite my earlier ranting about the HUI and other gold sector indices, I neglected to examine them since and didn't consider them in the forecast.

Others with a bit more brains than me kept a close watch, Chris V forecast still pretty damn good! Thinking about subscribing.

From
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12811.htm


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Is it just me in here now?

We are seeing some volatility in gold again tonight, similar to the pre-NYMEX action on the 7th March.

Lows to highs (range) for last 4 1h bars:

2300: 925 - 939
0000: 928 - 936
0100: 921 - 931
0200: 926 - 930

Does anyone have any volume data for these periods on the futs? Trembling Hand I am once again looking in your direction. Are these just big orders in low liquidity?


----------



## CapnBirdseye

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Is it just me in here now?




No not at all, just reading and learning until I feel I can properly contribute. 

Gold equitites seem to be making some good gains over the last few days on what has been a pause at around $910/oz.  Have gold equities been oversold or is this speculation based on the support above $900/oz?


----------



## Beej

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Is it just me in here now?
> 
> We are seeing some volatility in gold again tonight, similar to the pre-NYMEX action on the 7th March.
> 
> Lows to highs (range) for last 4 1h bars:
> 
> 2300: 925 - 939
> 0000: 928 - 936
> 0100: 921 - 931
> 0200: 926 - 930
> 
> Does anyone have any volume data for these periods on the futs? Trembling Hand I am once again looking in your direction. Are these just big orders in low liquidity?




Data for April Gold futures contract:

2300: 15769 contracts
0000: 8889
0100: 14325
0200: 4682

~21,500 individual trades, giving an average transaction size of 2 contracts.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## solomon

It seems that PoG and gold stocks are again moving in tandem with the equities rally. This is unusual, though I seem to remember it happened before the recent break above $1000, so perhaps we are heading for a short equities rally before another wave of bad news and equities selling. While PoG breaks again to the upside.


----------



## sinner

Thanks Beej (although I did not expect to see you in here)!

Is gold rally with equities unusual? I don't think so. Isn't that how we got to the first 1000 then tumble?

We should watch the HUI closely over the next few days. There is *a lot* of technical damage there but if we can move past it we might finally see the index confirm golds recent "golden cross" move up.

Saturday night, time for some fun!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm actually a bit nervous and have been selling down some gold equities. Don't know why, just doesn't feel right, hope I'm wrong? Could go either way now on the weekly XAU?


----------



## CanOz

Interesting you say that UF, i was just saying in another thread that i have seen heaps of bearish patterns in US Stocks today...Quite a few were gold stocks too. I'm not sure why, but i had the urge to ignore them until you posted this.

Again, I'll post a couple if i have time.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Glen48

To day's Sunday Mail reports how Gold is in such demand the Mints can't keep up with the market which means it should continue to dive.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Has the rest of the world seen the US ponzi scheme for what it is, finally?



> *SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - A big jump in foreign sales of long-term U.S. securities raised concerns Monday that the U.S., in the midst of a massive debt issuance to fund its economic revival plans, may run into trouble getting other countries to finance its deficit. *
> 
> Foreign purchases of long-term U.S. Treasurys, Fannie Mae      and Freddie Mac       bonds, corporate debt and stocks -- netted for acquisitions of foreign debt from U.S. residents -- dropped to negative $43 billion in January from positive $34.7 billion in December, said the Treasury Department Monday.
> January's sales marked a record low, said currency strategist Michael Woolfolk, and the reasons for the plunge could spell bad news for the U.S. dollar.
> "This was a truly awful report, throwing into question the funding of the U.S. current account deficit," said Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, in emailed comments.



So we could have the situation of rising US bond and corporate rates at the same time as a flight from 'quality' from the USD, ie a reversal of the current trend to US bond 'quality'? Gold still waits patiently for hell to break loose Version 2? We aint seen nothin yet.....not sure what gold equities will do in the break down......when a snowball becomes an avalache....

Combine that with the broad negative sentiment for gold and we have the perfect recipe for a sharp bullish move for gold - something not many are expecting?


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Interesting UF.  But if the dollar is falling and gold is quoted in USD, doesnt this potentially offset some or all of the gains in gold?


----------



## sinner

Do you really think the AUD will ever come close to parity with the USD again? I doubt it.

If USD starts to fall dramatically, gold will be priced in whatever becomes the next reserve currency.


----------



## joeyr46

I thought mostly everyone was bullish on gold UF haven't seen any real bearish comments


----------



## Uncle Festivus

joeyr46 said:


> I thought mostly everyone was bullish on gold UF haven't seen any real bearish comments



There's several gold newsletters out there that are not bullish after the second attempt at the big 1K, and the XAU is not looking like a decision has been made on the part of gold equity investors to commit or capitulate - yet. 

Gold equities rode the last bear sell off with the pleb's so unless gold absolutely explodes this time due to some dramatic black swan event, not too hard to guess which, then I will wait for some tradeable confirmation that the US (and therefore the global economy?) is indeed going down the s bend and that the world will be looking for an alternative measure of wealth any time soon? A time of financial flux until the next bombshell explodes.....

For eg, I own NEM, but from the chart it's hardly showing the effects of a raging bull market, even though gold is only $100 off the all time high, even worse for the inflation adjusted figure ie another 60-70% to go! 

Then again, it's still 140% better than the Dow Dogs  One more plunge in everything then it's time to buy everything???


----------



## doctorj

Chart below is courtesy of the FT.  

Short gold/long gold miners?


----------



## So_Cynical

Uncle Festivus said:


> There's several gold newsletters out there that are not bullish after the second attempt at the big 1K




I count 3  ~ your not including the July 08 $978 (approx) as a crack at 1K :dunno:

Surly a triple rejection is a bad thing....the perfect storm for gold is waning...for example

Gordon Brown is clearing the way (for the yanks) for Iran to have Nukes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-nuclear-power-if-it-works-with-the-West.html


----------



## sinner

Bob Hoye and Ross Clark on Gold, Gold Indices and Gold:Oil ratio.

Bob Hoye one of my most respected analysts.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye031609.pdf


----------



## sinner

Gold is playing silly buggers tonight.

On the hourly chart, it exited the lower trendline during 0200-0300 but managed to close back inside the channel just before the 3am candle! Also came close to my 38.2% fib line (from 681-1006),not that 23.6% was too well respected.

Will gold respect the trend line after closing just inside it and now begin a new leg up? If so the weekly stochastic will present hugely bullish divergence!

If not then down we go, my first target 850.

Once again, strong correlation between USD/JPY and PoG tonight from what I have seen. USD already touched 97.75 (from 98.6+) against JPY earlier in the session, took a few hours for that to move into gold.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Wake up Sinner.  Looks like the Fed has helped things along a little.  In USD terms for now anyhow.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...732-2AD2-4F2F-833A-B7FFFC85451D}&siteid=yhoof


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Yep, the black swans are landing! Only now the general public is learning about the massive Madoff US (and the world for that matter!) economy based on foreigners continued support for unproductive debt driven consumerism. Watch the rat's desert the sinking ship.

This bloke calls for $3500 gold.



> A few people were sounding the alarm about the US sub-prime mortgage market well ahead of the crash. One was the leading Asia-based equity strategist Christopher Wood, who told his clients back in 2005 to sell all their exposure to US mortgage-backed securities.



http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2009/2520173.htm

The only problem for us is the Aussie going burko, although I don't think it's supported by fundamentals as our recession is only just starting, and we are one of the biggest private net debt holders in the world.


----------



## projack

CapnBirdseye said:


> Wake up Sinner.  Looks like the Fed has helped things along a little.  In USD terms for now anyhow.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...732-2AD2-4F2F-833A-B7FFFC85451D}&siteid=yhoof




This is the problem with charts. When fundamentals kick in they are useless, and you get a $50 jump in minutes.
Lucky we just discussed quantitative easing. We see it now in action, USD down over 4% less than 2 days.
So at least we know why the US dollar dropt yesterday.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And the New York slammers get slammed after they close - you did your best boys but now lost control?


----------



## Ageo

Spoke to our major refiners in the country (people who i deal with always) and they are all confident that gold will be at least $2000p/o by the yrs end.

Perhaps they know something i dont?


----------



## sinner

Thanks CapnBirdseye, by then I was well passed out, dreaming of sunshine and butterflies.



projack said:


> This is the problem with charts. When fundamentals kick in they are useless, and you get a $50 jump in minutes.
> Lucky we just discussed quantitative easing. We see it now in action, USD down over 4% less than 2 days.
> So at least we know why the US dollar dropt yesterday.




Err what? The chart worked perfectly in terms of both fundamentals and technicals.

My confidence in gold fundamentals would not have convinced me to go long gold last night, but the technicals did!



> Date:         19 MAR 2009
> Market:       Spot Gold CFD
> Level:        887.02
> Stop (Not Guaranteed):    881.02




So projack, did you go long on gold last night? My current profit on this position is 42 points at 100USD per point and I would have just has happily gone short on a break down from 881.

I have included below the 5m chart continuing from where my last chart finished. We can see buy signal developing on RSI and stochastic. Thankyou technical analysis for allowing me to position before the "$50 jump in minutes".


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> This chart is SPDR GLD and 30y bond yield (which moves inverse to bond price, i.e. bonds up yields down).
> 
> Goldbugs are suggesting a flood exit from bonds i.e. "bond bubble". Even Marc Faber is short bonds and I like him. In my RYJUX thread I suggested it might be a good time to get in short too (double short in fact). Now I am not so sure: gold is forecasting bond strength *now*.
> 
> i.e. we should see a drop in yield from here.
> 
> (Although if you are a pairs trader you would go short gold and short bonds here)




Hi guys,

I would like to give myself a big pat on the back for the above post and not entering RYJUX too early.

See below



> BOND REPORT
> Treasurys skyrocket as Fed set to buy U.S. debt
> Yields reverse all of 2009's climb
> By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
> Last update: 3:45 p.m. EDT March 18, 2009Comments: 51NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices soared Wednesday, sending yields plummeting by the largest amount since 1987 after the Federal Reserve surprised bond investors by saying it would buy $300 billion in longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.
> Yields on the benchmark 10-year note , which move in the opposite direction from their prices, declined 50 basis points to 2.52%, *the biggest drop since the stock market crashed in October 1987.*


----------



## projack

sinner said:


> Thanks CapnBirdseye, by then I was well passed out, dreaming of sunshine and butterflies.
> 
> 
> 
> Err what? The chart worked perfectly in terms of both fundamentals and technicals.
> 
> My confidence in gold fundamentals would not have convinced me to go long gold last night, but the technicals did!
> 
> 
> 
> So projack, did you go long on gold last night? My current profit on this position is 42 points at 100USD per point and I would have just has happily gone short on a break down from 881.
> 
> I have included below the 5m chart continuing from where my last chart finished. We can see buy signal developing on RSI and stochastic. Thankyou technical analysis for allowing me to position before the "$50 jump in minutes".




Hi Sinner
Happy to here you made a good trade on this spark. I’m not an expert on charts and never will. I don’t have the expertise and time on short trades so I don’t do it. I just go with the trend, if the fundamentals support it, and assess it time to time. Not expecting huge returns either, but want to protect what I already have. I don’t trust the mainstream media on financial matters either; just trying read what’s between the lines.  
Anyway somehow I had the feeling POG would of go down further, if the announcement wait till Monday, and tiger you a short trade, but as said I’m not an expert and wont trade on gut feelings.


----------



## nunthewiser

Gold hooting along ......... still on that long sinner ?


----------



## sinner

Halved it at 936 nun. Sustained gains can be held by my gold miners in the morning. Would rather put the capital to use elsewhere than be long gold for the long runs up, especially considering miners are underperforming and plenty of my portfolio is already long gold 

Short gold (delta hedge) long gold miners n physical generally  

Not all of the decisions I've made have been great. Recently ran a list of the ASX gold sector products I've invested in. 

SBM in at 305 out at 305 (now >400)
IGR in at 135 out at 130 (now >200)
NCM in at 3400 out at 3100 (now >3300)
TRY in at 760 out at 680 (now >1200)
RMS in at 450 out at 595 (+30%, still holding RMSOC, will go long RMS again at 0.55)
IAU in at 185 33% out at 300 (now 290)
GOLD at 11900 out at 11200 (now >13600)

Thankfully the losses were on generally small lots (except IGR) and the capital was returned to investments which performed far better and made up for those losses severalfold.

Goes to show the importance of timing.

Obviously the gains would have been real nice but thems the breaks when you've got rules gotta stick to em.


----------



## nunthewiser

cool m8 and fair enough , no point having a plan if one forgets what it is when things get tough 

cheers


----------



## Jikx

With both the Bank of England and US Reserve printing money, isn't this only going to push Gold up?


----------



## sinner

Just about time to wholly exit this long so I can recycle the capital.

Total risk: 600USD
Total reward: 4900USD (887-936), then switched from 1 big contract to 5 minis 900USD (936-954) = 5800USD.

In the meantime I've been scalping the SP500 to provide some free money for a free play on BEPPA.

All done for the week as I'm not working tomorrow night, will get out while I am ahead.

Might take some time off from the scalping/trading again, it's just too stressful.

EDIT: Worth pointing out this sort of trade is not the norm for me, last nights price action was *crazy volatile!*


----------



## sinner

One last chart for the night guys, *I promise*!

New fib lines added (1006-883) added, from the old ones (681-1006).

Behaving remarkably well 959 is on the cards then who knows for now.


----------



## Dangerous

cuttlefish said:


> I agree we're starting to see it mentioned more in the financial media and that analysts are starting to become bullish on it, but we don't have Jamie Durie out there on prime time with his metal detector yet doinig 'gold prospectors blitz' so still a ways to go imo.




This comment has stuck in my head, a beauty but also some truth.

After reading about the gold parties being hosted in the US where people flog their jewellery off i wondered if that compares to Jamie Duries Amazing Metal Detector segment?.... hmm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7920895.stm


NB. i am 25% in gold bullion and miners


----------



## Ageo

Ok just heard some interesting news, my fellow buyers had a superannuation conference in adelaide last week. Believe it or not but super funds are now considering gold as an asset allocation (which they should have done yrs ago). So there you have it commodities will most likely be an option for fund managers (imagine if they did how much cash could have been hedged???)

Anywayz ill keep you's posted when the news hits


----------



## explod

Jikx said:


> With both the Bank of England and US Reserve printing money, isn't this only going to push Gold up?




You got it.    $US index breaking support, a little further down maybe and we will see it return down as fast as it went up from October.   With gold holding this level it may go ballistic from here against the global money print now coming out from the dark.

We shall see what eventuates soon IMHO.

And Sinner, I learnt that patting oneself on the back may put one on thin ice.  Much better to follow after the event.


----------



## Largesse

i can't say i have much experience with gold or commods in general
but i'ev got this gut feeling that gold could really punch through $1000 USD in the next few trading days if some of the heat comes of the dow

just a gut feeling, hold no interest in it either way


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> And Sinner, I learnt that patting oneself on the back may put one on thin ice.  Much better to follow after the event.




Don't worry explod, now that gold has bounced we should see a similar action in T-bills in a week or so.

So far there is super strong resistance very clear on the 30y yield (or support on the price) chart which could not be broken even with gold at 1000. Watch this breaking to the upside for signs of serious trouble until then we can relax.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> And Sinner, I learnt that patting oneself on the back may put one on thin ice.  Much better to follow after the event.




Implode

I would not think I am to smart as all that happened was a news release. 

I and others called the aud euro up two weeks ago based on pattern of trend. this last spike no one can take credit for its an event that happened.

The distribution pattern on the usd index fulled by the short and long term debt market has been building for weeks.

My que for u is did u call it down at 1000 or did you think it was going sky high till it fell?

I still remember you calling it up all last year when it went down to 680. yeh i know you're long term but mate the march 08 high still stands. For the record, I am bullish medium term on gold and aud/usd and eur/usd.

You can't claim unexpected occurrences as gospel preached by u. 

jeezzzzz


----------



## sinner

Hi Apocalypto, I do not know if the last line is directed at me but my prediction for this weeks Treasury strength was backed up with a host of reasons, all of which ended up being correct to the tee. I never claimed any soothesaying abilities from my recent gold long mentioned above and in fact mentioned it was not the norm for me (I only took a trading signal to wake up finding the USD had crapped its pants). On the other hand I was skeptical of golds rise all the way from 946-1000 and again all my posts claiming this come with a bunch of justification for my opinion.

But I am not here to discuss that, rather to post a small dissert by John Embry of Sprott Asset Management out of Canada who I have a *lot* of respect for (plus they are long RMS like me 

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf

In the middle of his usual gold-bug rant, he points out just how huge the SPDR GLD holdings supposedly are now, supposedly more than the Swiss National Bank, yet such a huge accumulation of physical has not put a dent in supply or even provided much support to the price action.

So are these "physical longs" really even there? Or is SPDR just holding huge and leveraged long futs against the bank shorts? How can they really be the 6th largest gold holder in the world? They are already the third largest ETF in the world (behind only SPY and QQQQ). 

I am not here to decide one way or the other for you. But personally I am far more skeptical of GLD, its holdings, and its extremely complex legal structure than holding a bar for roughly the same cost in a safe deposit box or burying it for free.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

sinner said:


> Hi Apocalypto, I do not know if the last line is directed at me but my prediction for this weeks Treasury strength was backed up with a host of reasons, all of which ended up being correct to the tee. I never claimed any soothesaying abilities from my recent gold long mentioned above and in fact mentioned it was not the norm for me (I only took a trading signal to wake up finding the USD had crapped its pants). On the other hand I was skeptical of golds rise all the way from 946-1000 and again all my posts claiming this come with a bunch of justification for my opinion.
> 
> But I am not here to discuss that, rather to post a small dissert by John Embry of Sprott Asset Management out of Canada who I have a *lot* of respect for (plus they are long RMS like me
> 
> http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf
> 
> In the middle of his usual gold-bug rant, he points out just how huge the SPDR GLD holdings supposedly are now, supposedly more than the Swiss National Bank, yet such a huge accumulation of physical has not put a dent in supply or even provided much support to the price action.
> 
> So are these "physical longs" really even there? Or is SPDR just holding huge and leveraged long futs against the bank shorts? How can they really be the 6th largest gold holder in the world? They are already the third largest ETF in the world (behind only SPY and QQQQ).
> 
> I am not here to decide one way or the other for you. But personally I am far more skeptical of GLD, its holdings, and its extremely complex legal structure than holding a bar for roughly the same cost in a safe deposit box or burying it for free.




wasn't directed at you sinner.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ever wondered what a trillion dollars looks like?

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

Doesn't look like gold is convinced the 'stimulis' will work, again? All in the open now about printing the 'I-owe-you-noughts' and gold...down...$10?

Gold/Dow = 1 when?


----------



## GumbyLearner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Ever wondered what a trillion dollars looks like?
> 
> http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
> 
> Doesn't look like gold is convinced the 'stimulis' will work, again? All in the open now about printing the 'I-owe-you-noughts' and gold...down...$10?
> 
> Gold/Dow = 1 when?




HAHAHA..LOL


----------



## prana

The problem I have is, with the CRB so low and base metals now looking like a possible turnaround, gold may even see gains in the USD but might not translate to us. It will be a rat race between the rising AUD to see any gains for us - I would say a buying opportunity may even present itself if people start buying AUD and the USD continues to drop on a base metals recovery story - who knows? I don't. I guess I'll wait and see, buy on weakness. Chances are, gold may even actually soften below in USD terms and then come back up again, a correction against the deflationist and inflationist, a double whammy for those already invested. I'm definitely bullish in a >3 month window though so I'll look to get back in thereafter - right now, I'd rather be invested in base metals. Any thoughts to share?


----------



## Glen48

Seems to me every one wants to keep away from Gold as long as there is any news about bailouts, or the corner store selling 2 more ice creams in a week therefore we have reached the bottom.. BOE M. King told Brown there is no more loot for bailouts and they are looking again at Glass Steagall but once all these suckers realise there it's all over Gold will start to move up....sit back and wait for signals over 1K


----------



## prana

no I'm definitely a gold long. Just short term, perhaps overbought with the mountain of a FX moved by base metals confusing my horizon.


----------



## sinner

Hi prana,

You are concerned about AUD moves wiping out any gains gold might provide and this is fair enough.

If we take Whiskers EW count as being a good one, AUDUSD should approach 0.75 and you can make your gold buy there as I doubt we will see much strength beyond that point.

Alternatively you could purchase a proportional long on the AUDUSD to hedge purchasing gold at your current price.

Personally, I have not bought gold since the 1100AUD mark and have a portion of funds which I monthly allocate to gold and have not been spent yet. If the price is not favorable for me to move these funds into gold when AUD approaches 0.75 AUDUSD I will simply put the money into silver.


----------



## prana

cool - I'm also picking up silver. Funny that.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Here is weekly gold accompanied by the ratios I keep an eye on as well as some nice pretty lines to go with it.

This is not financial advice, just some pretty lines which represent my humble opinion, DYOR!


----------



## Ageo

Just to update from the physical market refiners and bullion houses are expecting a slight move back (due to the spike in price just recently) before it continues upwards. So short term view is short whilst long on the longer side of things.

Spreads have cut back a bit which means they expect further falls.


----------



## Onomj

I've been hearing about potential price pull backs as well. I don't know how correct they are.


----------



## Sean K

IMF selling $6b of gold reserves to help with the G20 dash for cash.

Short term POG has taken a hit, but medium long term impact?

Anything?

Or, was the POG pullback just a reaction to people jumping on the equities bandwagon?


----------



## CapnBirdseye

My guess is the IMF selloff.  Not feeling to good about gold equities in the short to medium term, have sold out of everything except PRU.  May well take my gains there fairly soon and sit it out for a while.


----------



## moXJO

kennas said:


> IMF selling $6b of gold reserves to help with the G20 dash for cash.
> 
> Short term POG has taken a hit, but medium long term impact?
> 
> Anything?
> 
> Or, was the POG pullback just a reaction to people jumping on the equities bandwagon?



Wonder if this will end up straight to china? 
Is Germany selling off some gold as well?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/G20-supports-IMF-plan-raise/story.aspx?guid={5ABAE8F2-060D-44BC-9905-EB79665AEACE}


> Hussein Allidina, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note Thursday that he expects the IMF to implement the sales over the next few years, "but do not believe that this presents a strong negative risk to gold prices - as it will be 'orderly' and maybe even off market."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> IMF selling $6b of gold reserves to help with the G20 dash for cash.
> 
> Short term POG has taken a hit, but medium long term impact?
> 
> Anything?
> 
> Or, was the POG pullback just a reaction to people jumping on the equities bandwagon?




The talk is that it will be bought directly buy the creditor nations eg China off market, as has been the case for several years now. That's if it even goes ahead as it still needs a unanimous approval process to get through?

The other talk is that it get's sold to the big bad underwater short bullion banks so they can deliver on their contracts, an increasingly common occurrence.

The transfer of wealth continues.



> *A NEAR-record trade surplus should really be good news, but it only reveals a deepening malaise in the Australian economy.*
> -----
> The jump in exports was spearheaded by an unusual 54.8 per cent spike in shipments of gold, Australia's fourth-largest export commodity.
> "This spike, we believe, may be an indication of a flight to safety from riskier assets, something we last witnessed around the onset of the Asian financial crisis in 1997," JPMorgan economist Helen Kevans said.
> "That said, the gold story also is reflective of higher prices, with the average spot price up 10 per cent over the month."
> In February, spot gold was trading around $US920 a fine ounce and hit a peak just over $US1000.



http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25281628-3122,00.html

The irony of it all - the trade surplus, created almost entirely from good old gold exports, hit's a record so the $Au get's bought up lowering the local gold price! 

My super gold wedge is still forming, the dead cat bounce is about finished for general equities again, and my target for the $US/$AU is still below 50c (shorting now @72c). The time to buy goldies again will be after the next flush down in plebs? Physical looking attractive again here at $1260 odd, but, not yet???

Still need a few more posters to be overly pessimistic about gold for me to be overly optimistic again though


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Hi prana,
> 
> You are concerned about AUD moves wiping out any gains gold might provide and this is fair enough.
> 
> If we take Whiskers EW count as being a good one, AUDUSD should approach 0.75 and you can make your gold buy there as I doubt we will see much strength beyond that point.
> 
> Alternatively you could purchase a proportional long on the AUDUSD to hedge purchasing gold at your current price.
> 
> Personally, I have not bought gold since the 1100AUD mark and have a portion of funds which I monthly allocate to gold and have not been spent yet. If the price is not favorable for me to move these funds into gold when AUD approaches 0.75 AUDUSD I will simply put the money into silver.




Dunno bout the 75c figure as it look's to be approaching a significant resistance level around 72-73, coupled with the possibility of an interest rate  cut next week?


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Sorry I haven't been posting updates. Hope you did not miss me too much :

Was watching as gold broke down last night, but unaware of the reasoning. 

Not sure about the rest of you, but the last $HUI rally was enough to push my collection of goldies to the point where I could take initial capital out and play for free, which I did.

Anyway, I have exited all my other longs because I got a job offer at University of Melbourne and would like a good cash base for the move without being worried about it going up or down (at least until I've settled in!).

I guess you will not hear too much more from me until I've moved. 

Good luck.


----------



## nunthewiser

good luck with it all sinner............watch those hippys


----------



## electronicmaster

For me? Gold is no longer about price.  The governments and Central Banks all over the world have over spent by committing crimes that even the best crooks can only dream of.  All thanks to the Banks toxic CDS, synthetic CDO's and over inflated mortgage issues (plus others). 

It has come to the point that having Gold and/or Silver is the only way to survive the inflation issues that is to come.  

If the Silver or gold price falls then take the advantage and buy Bullion only.  Stay away from fake paper contracts.  Because it will come to a point were people won't care what the paper price of PM's are.  The physical "Bullion" price will deviate from the paper price.

Then paper Gold and Silver will be worthless to anyone.

Ask your self this question.  How are you suppose to know the true market data (profits, sales, and other fundamentals) if finance is allowed to BS the numbers?

Why is the governments controlling the markets when they can't control themselves, or their own?


Here is some wacky examples of what I'm talking about.  And it is only the tip of the ice burg:-

http://mises.org/story/3128



So it is up to you.  Do you have Gold and/or Silver?


----------



## electronicmaster

Oh yes.  An update on the COMEX default issues.  The people are voting with their money it seems.

_*Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?*_

excerpt from the article:-

_Decision: There is sufficient evidence for this case to go to a full scale investigation. The CFTC and similar securities regulators in Europe need to properly investigate the gold conspiracy allegations. That has never been done to date. They must determine who is buying central bank gold and whether or not it is simply being sold into the open market, or channeled into the hands of favored financial institutions who then use it to cover naked short selling. The investigation must include detailed vault audits and explore all paper trails._


----------



## electronicmaster

_*Gold tipped for record high*_

excerpt:-

_Gold prices will "blow through'' a record high this year as inflation accelerates amid a surge in government spending.

"This will be a positive year for gold,'' Mark Johnson, manager of the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals Fund, said.

"With all the liquidity that has been pumped into the system, there's definitely going to be inflation. For us, it's not a question of if gold will rise, but when.''_ 

excerpt 2:-

_"We are going to be moving out of deflation and into inflation soon,'' Mr Johnson said.

Gold futures for June delivery dropped $US7.50, or 0.8%, to $US901.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has gained 2.8% this year._

Have you got Gold and/or Silver?


----------



## metric

in the worst economic period since the great depression, gold has risen in value, of a measely 10-15%. admitedly, it has held its value when other investment classes have lost value. but we havent seen the masive rises that commodity spruikers and doom and gloomers have been pontificating.

there has been talk of $2000-$3000 dollar gold. but even as more bad news comes out, gold hardly budges.

we all know that gold is manipulated. what evidence is there that gold is going to be let run ? there is none. in fact, banks are selling gold! the manipulators are getting out of gold and selling it to the masses..

if gold cant budge in these times, why would we think it can explode at all?

has gold had its little run? or are things about to get much worse, and see gold actually breaking free of the banksters?

or will a new world currency be introduced to keep the manipulators in control?


.


----------



## explod

> in the worst economic period since the great depression, gold has risen in value, of a measely 10-15%. admitedly, it has held its value when other investment classes have lost value. but we havent seen the masive rises that commodity spruikers and doom and gloomers have been pontificating.




Excuse me ?  from its low of US$260 in 2001/2 gold is now about 900.

The big issue is the the US dollar being maintained as the world reserve currency.  Gold used to back currencies and gave them true value.  As the value of the US paper money depletes, as it is/has gold rises.   The G20 justg pastg was really as one put it the G2, the Us and China, the latter owning two much debt baced US dollars.  China is now openly expressing its concern at the imbalance and worrying about how to extricate itself/and realising that it cannot dump without crashing the dollar, but it will son have to.  

As the dust settles this week in the aftergolw of the G20 you may witness some change, the fact that gold held up so well last week (albiet a large fall) is testament that big buying comes in at this level.

Having said that gold is an instument that holds value when all else (and all  else is) failing.  Have had 40% of my super in gold for a number of years now and (whew) glad now.

So take heart my son and a little patience.

cheers explod

There is a great article on the website of "The Privateer" on gold as money


----------



## metric

excuse you back......since this drama started.......


----------



## metric

and the only way gold will 'explode' will be if the bankster manipulators let it, or they lose control. i believe they are stronger now, than at any time in history.

.


----------



## explod

metric said:


> and the only way gold will 'explode' will be if the bankster manipulators let it, or they lose control. i believe they are stronger now, than at any time in history.
> 
> .




Not only have the banks lost it they no longer trust each other.  That the ones who have not gone broke or been gailed out by taxpayers money of course.

And you perhaps a 350% plus increase in the price of gold since 02 is chicken feed I suppose.

And what makes you bedlieve they are stronger old son (and in history)


----------



## Beej

explod said:


> Excuse me ?  from its low of US$260 in 2001/2 gold is now about 900.




If you live in AU, and convert those prices to $AU based on prevailing average exchange rates in each period (2000/2001 = AU$1 = ~US$0.52.5c, currently AU$1 = US$0.72) you get AU$500 -> AU$1250 over that period. That's an average annualised return of about 11% pa - not to bad, but not atmospheric either.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## sinner

metric said:


> in the worst economic period since the great depression, gold has risen in value, of a measely 10-15%. admitedly, it has held its value when other investment classes have lost value. but we havent seen the masive rises that commodity spruikers and doom and gloomers have been pontificating.
> .




Said the forums head pontificator.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> Dunno bout the 75c figure as it look's to be approaching a significant resistance level around 72-73, coupled with the possibility of an interest rate  cut next week?




Well if it goes above 7441 in the near future my EW count is shot! 

Looks to me like the 200 day SMA is about 7440 now and veering lower too.

It may have another go at 73, but I'm tipping it trends back and hangs around in the 60's for quite a while, helping out our miners.


----------



## Naked shorts

metric said:


> I believe they are stronger now, than at any time in history.




Stronger? Why would they need to be bailed out if they are stronger?

I think when the time is right, someone who has been watching their balance sheets, will strike ala George Soros.


----------



## explod

After the move down Monday morning, when the traders were still asleep, gold has moved sideways to up.  With the rise against the dow down overnight and the move up the last few hours I think we may see some strength again soon.


----------



## wonderrman

explod said:


> After the move down Monday morning, when the traders were still asleep, gold has moved sideways to up.  With the rise against the dow down overnight and the move up the last few hours I think we may see some strength again soon.




Firstly strength or weakness will I believe entirely depend on what happens in equity markets over the next few weeks. If we see a drip drap consolidation period on our markets soon it is a bullish sign that markets are ready to move up. If this happens holding a trade in gold will be stupid over the next few months. A basing period of stock markets would suggest that they will push alot higher, possibily to either ~4400 or ~5000 on the XJO as this is the next levels of 'major' resistence. If this scenario plays out then Gold could most likely push down between I would say 700 and 750, there is some support there. 

If markets collapse again over the next few weeks which I believe is highly unlikely now then Gold would do a u turn and push up. I don't think this is going to happen though. At the moment, short term I am bullish and am looking for this basing period or the formation of the right shoulder on the XJO chart to play out over the next few weeks.

As I mentioned if this basing period on the markets plays out I would actually *be looking to go short gold in the short term.*

This does not mean I am not bullish on gold in the long term (2+ years). I think economically we are stuffed and this bounce is simply a retracement (remember that retracements of 38%, 50% and 62% are common) and this push up is most likely apart of  a longer term downtrend on equity markets. I would be buying some physical gold on the dips if I could afford it and storing it in a safe place somewhere. The economies future is really quite depressing. This is my long term view though and the things I have been detailing in my previous posts could take quite a while to play out. 

Wonder.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> After the move down Monday morning, when the traders were still asleep, gold has moved sideways to up.  With the rise against the dow down overnight and the move up the last few hours I think we may see some strength again soon.




always able to see a positive in Gold, good on you explod at least u follow your dreams.... 

when it finally reaches 1500 or 5000 please send me a pm that day. I just hope i am still on this earth...


----------



## Ageo

>Apocalypto< said:


> always able to see a positive in Gold, good on you explod at least u follow your dreams....
> 
> when it finally reaches 1500 or 5000 please send me a pm that day. I just hope i am still on this earth...




It reached over 1500p/oAU only a month ago??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ageo said:


> It reached over 1500p/oAU only a month ago??




Its already at $218,0000 Zimbabwe Dollar


----------



## Ageo

Trembling Hand said:


> Its already at $218,0000 Zimbabwe Dollar




But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?

The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?


----------



## sinner

Ageo said:


> But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?
> 
> The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?




If the scenario you state were to occur it would signal a massive loss of faith in the USD, and I doubt it would be the international reserve currency in which gold is priced.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ageo said:


> or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?




Only when i go on my overseas holidays


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> If the scenario you state were to occur it would signal a massive loss of faith in the USD, and I doubt it would be the international reserve currency in which gold is priced.




Well until that day comes theres no need to speculate

Anywayz my point was relating to gold going to 1500p/o or above which i clearly pointed out.


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?
> 
> The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?




But it will sure make my trip to Vagas into a ripper.  

Not just the US dollar is going to weaken, the current contraction this time is a world wide thing.   Too much debt and too many paper dollars with reducing GDP is taking it all to the edge.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Ageo said:


> It reached over 1500p/oAU only a month ago??




mate u know that price i am talking about......


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Ageo said:


> But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?
> 
> The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?




sorry mate u can't trade futures in AUD. Most margin trading on gold with cfd is in usd as well.

so if u hold physical yeh it's aud but who short term trades in physical????


----------



## Ageo

>Apocalypto< said:


> but who short term trades in physical????




Me  but unlike most trading mine is risk free as i purchase scrap which is always at a discount, then i lock in my price with my buyers so im hedged against price swings. More handling yes, and a tad more risk but the reward is well worth it.

Anywayz as short term traders the gold price shouldnt really make a difference, but for long term wealth protection thats a different story.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ho hum. Ascending wedge alert for the USD? Still some time till resolution, both for it & gold, out to August/September, again?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> I feel a geoplitical issue will make some sort of impact soon - not sure Pakistan & nuclear are a comfortable juxtaposition? Talk of Israel pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuke facilities before their US buddies are kicked out of Washington?




Uh Oh!



> THE NEXT few months will be crucial in defusing a global terrorist threat that would be even deadlier than the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, a leading Washington counter-terrorism expert warns.
> 
> David Kilcullen ”” a former Australian army lieutenant colonel who helped devise the US troop surge that revitalised the American campaign in Iraq ”” fears Pakistan is at risk of falling under al-Qaeda control.
> 
> If that were to happen, the terrorist group could end up controlling what Dr Kilcullen calls "Talibanistan". "Pakistan is what keeps me awake at night," said Dr Kilcullen, who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.
> 
> "Pakistan has 173 million people and *100 nuclear weapons*, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control."



http://www.theage.com.au/world/west...orist-threat-from-pakistan-20090412-a40m.html


----------



## sinner

Anyone still watching the "NAV tonnes" for SPDR GLD?

I can't make a pretty chart on the mac tonight for some reason, MS Office for Mac is soooo terrible. Can't be bothered going upstairs to use OpenOffice on the linux box.

But you can download the data here:
http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/file/csv/gld_all_data.csv

Anyway, I wanted to point out that on Feb 20 when spot gold hit 1000, the NAV tonnes was 1028.

Since then this number series has not decreased one single gram despite a ~140USD price drop in spot. In fact, currently it sits at 1127, the highest ever!

SPDR GLD is supposed to be the 3rd or 4th largest ETF on the planet now.

Comments appreciated. I am a bit skeptical as to the nature of the holdings, which supposedly now are more than the Swiss National Bank (6th largest in the world). How can they pick up this much physical without causing a dent in the market? Pretty chart tomorrow, hopefully. This one will have to do in the mean-time


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Comments appreciated. I am a bit skeptical as to the nature of the holdings, which supposedly now are more than the Swiss National Bank (6th largest in the world). How can they pick up this much physical without causing a dent in the market? Pretty chart tomorrow, hopefully. This one will have to do in the mean-time




Central banks keep it off the books by lending gold to the bullion banks who have to deliver on their shorts. It's a net transfer from previously wealthy to the future wealthy? The books will need a re-balancing to reflect actual  physical quantities held by central banks and the bullion banks on the day of reckoning? The official gold inventory of the US has not changed since March 06 - doesn't anyone wonder why?


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Central banks keep it off the books by lending gold to the bullion banks who have to deliver on their shorts. It's a net transfer from previously wealthy to the future wealthy? The books will need a re-balancing to reflect actual  physical quantities held by central banks and the bullion banks on the day of reckoning? The official gold inventory of the US has not changed since March 06 - doesn't anyone wonder why?




But what does that have to do with the nature of GLDs holdings? Unless you are trying to point out that GLD is holding leased physical? Or are you saying they're buying all the sells and taking deliveries on them?

Delivery of physical for Feb and March was high, but not anywhere near as high as it used to be, and I doubt they needed leased gold to deliver on it.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

Considering that total central bank and privately held gold is about 60,000t, sourcing 100t over a few months is not a problem from where I sit.

Consider that if you were a market maker in the ETFs and the general trend is for them to grow, why would you incur costs in liquidating your shares to settle your OTC sell trades (that offset your buys of ETF shares) when you can just sit on them and sell the shares back to retail investors, also then saving the cost of creating the shares. This would account for some of the "smoothing".


----------



## sinner

So you really think they hold more gold than the Swiss National Bank?


----------



## Bron Suchecki

Firstly, lets clarify that we are talking about whether the number is reasonable, not about whether they actually have it all physically (I have blogged on this as there are a number of issues with loopholes in the legals of the various ETFs).

Yes, I do not see any problem with an ETF or fund getting or holding 1000t of gold. All that is happening is that because of the ease of the ETFs, investors who would have previously bought and held gold in the OTC market are now doing so on an exchange, making what was previously hidden, visible.

People can lose sight of the fact that there is still circa 29,000t of privately held gold that is not visible. Therefore one should not read too much into the movements of the 1000t pile, just because it is visible.


----------



## moneymajix

*WHAT HAS BEEN*

Howard S. Katz
April 13, 2009


at http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz041309.html


----------



## Gundini

moneymajix said:


> *WHAT HAS BEEN*
> 
> Howard S. Katz
> April 13, 2009
> 
> 
> at http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz041309.html




No disrespect intended but is this guy credible?

And really, does it matter?

Surely there is no doubt gold will excel in this enviro.....


----------



## cuttlefish

Gold not looking too good last night.  Still in a range of longer term trend support imo but possibility of it breaking down further from here in the short term I guess.


----------



## prana

well I'm happy. 

Now gotta decide when to get back in. UF whats your basis for a 50cent AUD-USD? You are strong US or weak Aussie?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

prana said:


> well I'm happy.
> 
> Now gotta decide when to get back in. UF whats your basis for a 50cent AUD-USD? You are strong US or weak Aussie?




Just a hunch that there will be competitive currency devaluations and a worse than expected recession in Oz?? It's still stalled at 72c

Looking at gold, maybe a sign of something happening soon with a descending wedge forming, any takers? Getting into a few technical support zones too to bounce from? 50% fib, low Bol bandwidth??


----------



## cuttlefish

cuttlefish said:


> Gold not looking too good last night.  Still in a range of longer term trend support imo but possibility of it breaking down further from here in the short term I guess.




I think I might be a reverse indicator for gold ... whenever I post a comment with a negative view the price goes up the next day lol.

Gold down to $300 by the end of the month


----------



## Ageo

cuttlefish said:


> I think I might be a reverse indicator for gold ... whenever I post a comment with a negative view the price goes up the next day lol.
> 
> Gold down to $300 by the end of the month




Hehe its a bit like that eh?


----------



## Nero64

Newcrest is up 5% or so at the moment. Seems a predictable pattern. As risk tolerance decreases people are heading for Gold. The down trend needs to continue for the Gold Bulls to profit.


----------



## Aussiest

Nero64 said:


> Newcrest is up 5% or so at the moment. Seems a predictable pattern. As risk tolerance decreases people are heading for Gold. The down trend needs to continue for the Gold Bulls to profit.




Yes, you're right. Not just a small spike.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Gold Bugs.....

If the equity markets really start to crumble look for Gold and the USD Index to rise.

No they can't I hear some of you cry, yes they can and they did it this year.

cheers,


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Gold Bugs.....
> 
> If the equity markets really start to crumble look for Gold and the USD Index to rise.
> 
> No they can't I hear some of you cry, yes they can and they did it this year.
> 
> cheers,




You are correct.   The US dollar sits on sentiment, the safe haven world reserve currency.

Gold sits on fundamentals, though regarded as the relic it is solid, you can hold it in your hand so it is like land or other goods, tangible.

The dollar is a printed piece of paper, a promise of government and being held up by increasing debt.

I know which way to go for me in the longer term, but we will, see.


----------



## explod

> Gold price could hit $1,500
> The aggressive monetary policy of central banks around the world is playing havoc with the structure of the bullion market, creating a chronic shortage of gold that may soon push the metal to fresh records above $1,500 an ounce.
> By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
> Last Updated: 12:11PM BST 20 Apr 2009
> 
> Charles Gibson, a gold expert at Edison Investment Research, argues in a new report that negative real interest rates (below inflation) in the US and beyond has upset the "leasing" machinery in the gold industry and led to a sustained market squeeze.
> 
> This is what occurred in the late 1970s, driving gold prices to $850 and ounce – roughly $1,560 in today’s terms. Gold finished last week at $870.
> 
> Mr Gibson said the powerful dynamic could lead to a second leg of this gold bull market, even though the metal has already enjoyed a torrid run over the last eight years.
> 
> In normal times, gold mining companies sell – or "hedge" – a chunk of their output in advance through bullion banks. These banks cover their positions by leasing gold from central banks. This bread-and-butter trade created excess supply of 500 tonnes each year until the start of this decade.
> 
> Low real interest rates have caused the process to reverse, creating a shortfall of about 500 tonnes. The process accelerates as rates turn negative, leading to a scramble by market players to find physical gold.
> 
> There are already reports that gold bars are becoming scarce, partly due to fears that futures contracts and other forms of paper gold may not prove reliable if there is a serious break-down in the global financial system. Pure metal ”” whether Krugerrands, Maple Leaf coins, or the "five tael biscuit" favoured by the Chinese – entail no counterparty risk.




From Jim Sinclair's Minesite today


----------



## Bron Suchecki

That article has got a lot of runs in the past few days. This statement in it caught my eye

_Low real interest rates have caused the process [mine hedging] to reverse, creating a shortfall of about 500 tonnes. The process accelerates as rates turn negative, leading to a scramble by market players to find physical gold._

My understanding of what drove mine dehedging was that investors were demanding no hedging so they could be fully exposed to the gold price. I didn't think real interest rates had anything to do with it. I was intrigued that maybe Charles Gibson of Edison Investment Research had found some correlation, so I dodged up the following chart, creating the real interest rate figure from the federal funds rate less CPI.




I can't see any correlation at all between the consistent miner dehedging and real interest rates. I think there must have been some misinterpretation by the journalist in trying to simplify the report into a brief news article.

The other statement that "this is what occurred in the late 1970s, driving gold prices to $850 and ounce" I would also disagree with. As you can see from the chart, mine hedging really only got going in the late 80s. I am speaking without direct experience but I don't think there was much, if any, lease market in the 70s/early 80s. Maybe it was meant that the forwards/futures machinery was upset in the late 1970s.


----------



## explod

Gold starting a little run up tonight after consistent gains the last few days.  Is this the start to the big one.  Probably needs to close over US $930 to hold on for next week.

Bloomberg headlines all bad news tonight which will support gold, of note



> •Banks May Struggle to Raise Money After Stress Tests as Bad Assets Triple




And unfortunately just went off the screen,  



> China increases gold reserves to be fifth largest holder, gold rises


----------



## GumbyLearner

This is awesome..truly awesome!

A very rare..extremely rare Jon Nadler prediction from *APRIL 27, 2009*

While gold bugs might view the purchases as supportive of higher prices, Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco.com, says if this were truly significant news, gold futures would be trading much higher.

"If you do the math, it's not a big deal. [If] China was aggressively buying, gold should have been up more. The reason why China has been buying is that they wish to make their ratio of gold to reserves very constant ... . The amount is in line with the Chinese program to meet its allocation requirement ... no way it means that they are abandoning the dollar. [China] is not really worried, if they had been worried they would have been buying more tons over 5 years."  

Cheers Jon

We will wait with anticipated breath!


----------



## explod

Nadlers comments are a very bullish sign.   We must be very close to dollar capitulation as he has been one of its prime its media protectors for some time.   China have been very concerned to hold the US currency up to protect thier massive holding of treasuries.   Thier frustrations were very evident at the last G20 and their flight towards gold and other metals since is a clear indication that one of the last major supports to the reserve currency is falling away.

Gold may break out sooner than we expected.   August we thought.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Have to agree Explod

Sooner rather than later as unseasonal as it will be.

Holding patiently for the higher spike!


----------



## sinner

How any of you can put any faith in the writings of Jon Nadler is beyond me. This is the guy who was saying "it's over for gold" when the most recent upleg from 681 began and saying investors should be in cash AFTER the crash. He will say anything to retain his prime click spot on Kitco.

From October 2008:
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-might-fall-to-$500s-Jon-Nadler-12397-3-1.html
Gold might fall to $500s: Jon Nadler

lollll

The likes of explod and GumbyLearner are still posting the same dribble I see.

Thanks Bron, at the moment you are the only reason I am reading this thread lol.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> How any of you can put any faith in the writings of Jon Nadler is beyond me. This is the guy who was saying "it's over for gold" when the most recent upleg from 681 began.





We dont', read what we were really saying.

Dribble, could you explain that?

Not very nice I think, have often found your posts very naive but did not ever whish to say so as we all have something even if it is dribble.   Ah well it will all come out in the wash.


----------



## chrislp

Can't understand you gold bulls. This thread has been sooo quiet during this decline & few days of short covering bring this thread alive. 

Better money to be made elsewhere IMO.


----------



## explod

chrislp said:


> Can't understand you gold bulls. This thread has been sooo quiet during this decline & few days of short covering bring this thread alive.
> 
> Better money to be made elsewhere IMO.




Agree, some of the gas plays have been fantastic but gold will be the big one to come, never seen such an opportunity.


----------



## Aussiest

explod said:


> Agree, some of the gas plays have been fantastic but gold will be the big one to come, never seen such an opportunity.




Really? Please provide evidence for your opinion. 

I respect it either way, just curious.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Agree, some of the gas plays have been fantastic but gold will be the big one to come, never seen such an opportunity.




Explod what happened to the, forgive me if I'm mistaken, explosion to gold prices after the US elections? March wasn't it when you had gold taking off to $2000000000000000000000000000000.01


----------



## lookout

Hi everyone, I've been following various economic commentators for about 18 months now, watching how markets act and trying to figure out who's on the ball. I'm a novice to gold investing but it seems that fear is currently providing the main support. When credit markets settle (how ever long that takes) the price of gold will collapse. I've recently taken a position in gold based on thoughts that there is a lot more fear to come which will support gold and drive our currency lower against the $US. My two favourite sites:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/gold-continues-to-act-well.html

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Explod what happened to the, forgive me if I'm mistaken, explosion to gold prices after the US elections? March wasn't it when you had gold taking off to $2000000000000000000000000000000.01




yep, that's what I called and I was wrong.  Did not count on the new administration being held by the Wall Street scamers.   The delay will only make the break out greater when it does happen.  IMHO  and if you read back I have always qualified it as, we shall see,    and we shall


----------



## jackson8

explod said:


> yep, that's what I called and I was wrong.  Did not count on the new administration being held by the Wall Street scamers.   The delay will only make the break out greater when it does happen.  IMHO  and if you read back I have always qualified it as, we shall see,    and we shall




hi all
just watching the nightly bussiness report on SBS

an interveiw with Mark Leibovit from VRTrading.com

his prediction is gold is starting to make a breakout run and he expects it to hit 3000 range over the next 2-3 years

i know....... probably heard it all before


----------



## SGB

I'm with you explode.

Its interesting to note that gold actually went up overnight with an up DOW day as well. Is the focus now back on a US dollar tank and not so much on an equity crash?

One also still has to remember that at the current gold price of 913 its only 14% away from its all time high. Look at some of the risers in equity plays of late. Its not rocket science.

SGB


----------



## sinner

I would rather be wrong on gold and see it go to $200 and keep my job, bank account, etc. Than see everything collapse and gold jump to a jillion dollars.

Still watchin the gap at 850.

Still not sure how any of the gold bugs here expect to be believed when they themselves are willing to invest in paper stocks.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> I would rather be wrong on gold and see it go to $200 and keep my job, bank account, etc. Than see everything collapse and gold jump to a jillion dollars.
> 
> Still watchin the gap at 850.
> 
> Still not sure how any of the gold bugs here expect to be believed when they themselves are willing to invest in paper stocks.




I agree, I have children and grandchildren with jobs at risk,  some are already on benefits unfortunately.   Hoping that gold will not go up is not going to change anything.  Being prepared and investing so that when needed I can help them may help. "perhaps"

We all wish this downturn would go away, there are no winners in a bad downturn.   My hedge in my super fund with gold is merely that, some insurance, and it is doing that.   When it looks like it will no more I will seek something else.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Still watchin the gap at 850.
> .




A close of the gap to 850 would still see the price above the long term trend.  Have a look at the 10 year kitko gold chart and you can observe the french curve which began from the lows of 2001 is below 850, in fact it is around 800.   If we are talking technical, the 880 mark after the recent fall has been confirmed as a strong support area.

However, we shall see.


----------



## sinner

Mish 



> The idea that gold does well in periods of inflation and deflation is easily disproved. Gold fell from over $800 to $250 over the course of 20 years with inflation all the way. The reality is gold does well in periods of high economic stress (deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation, and periods of prolonged credit stress).
> 
> When it comes to trading, it's frequently a mistake to look for reasons, because they are often not known until it's far too late. In this case, there is no doubt we are in a period of extreme credit stress. Moreover, nearly every country on the planet is attempting to debase their currency simultaneously.
> 
> By those measures, gold should be acting well, and it is. Seasonals be damned.



http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/gold-continues-to-act-well.html

Clicky de linky for nice chart and Telegraph article.


----------



## MRC & Co

SGB said:


> I'm with you explode.
> 
> Its interesting to note that gold actually went up overnight with an up DOW day as well. Is the focus now back on a US dollar tank and not so much on an equity crash?
> 
> One also still has to remember that at the current gold price of 913 its only 14% away from its all time high. Look at some of the risers in equity plays of late. Its not rocket science.
> 
> SGB




Ah, good to see you back SGB, a top post as always.  I also noticed that big up move in the US overnight coincided with gold rising.  A break well through the high could surely be in play here over the coming months.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Mish
> 
> 
> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/gold-continues-to-act-well.html
> 
> Clicky de linky for nice chart and Telegraph article.




Thanks for the link sinner.  Talking fundamentals is an endless task, knowing them requires a full research team, it is out of our depth here.

I think that this financial crisis being global and the first stage in October being so brutal may make things different to the past, maybe 1929 to the 30,s bears some resemblance.  But certainly time to batten down and try to hold onto the equity value of investments.

I have trotted this out before but it is a long way back in the thread.  I look at the 1970/80 gold run as a rough ruler of where it may go this time.  In 1970 gold began its run from a low of US$35 (yes 35) to its blow off peak of 800 in 1980.  This new gold bull-run began from its low of about 260 in 2001..    The multiple of 1970/80 is about 25 to one so I look to 25 times 260 for the next run up.   

This is just a rough comparison, only time will tell.


----------



## ducati916

*explod*

The price of Gold at $35 was the convertibility price fixed by FDR in 1931 when he devalued the dollar during the Great Depression. It stayed at that price until 1971, when Nixon took the US dollar off convertibility, due to systemic inflation created by the 1944 Bretton Woods creation of the IMF.

jog on
duc


----------



## SGB

MRC & Co said:


> Ah, good to see you back SGB, a top post as always.  I also noticed that big up move in the US overnight coincided with gold rising.  A break well through the high could surely be in play here over the coming months.




Thanks MRC,

I have been quietly churning over chart patterns, and past trend behaviours avoiding the doom and groom euphoria that has been present around the financial markets of late. We can all get caught up in the perceptions that might occur without understanding the core values of why we are in this game in the first place. Trade what is actually happening rather than what might happen. 

As mentioned by other posters the importance of salvaging and protecting our financial worth, not just for ourselves, but for our children as well but not being overly focused on the fear factor. Yes fear is a good cautionary tool but it also limits opportunities for forward planning and growth.

Key measurement areas for me *now *is the DOW at the 8000 mark (equity markets) and gold trading *now* within this channel. If the channel is broken down from here there will be a possibility that this wave extension will be thrown down to a 1-5 down range and my opinion will be based on a monthly double top pattern which also occurred in 1980. Long positions in LGL and NCM bought at the end of Nov 08 will be liquidated. But if the channel is broken on the upside, the high could be broken quite easily with a pause at the 1000 mark. We’ll know within a couple of weeks. Trailing stops are in place.



SGB


----------



## MRC & Co

Cheers for the reply SGB.

A fail of the pattern to the downside could well put gold into a choppy range IMO.

A break to the upside (which looks more likely to me), due to the change in the trend structure and I particularly like the area of support we just bounced out of, so my bet would be for a push through the high, but as you say, stops in place just encase.  

Equities are rallying, but futures are still trading at a discount, so it looks like a fall from grace is still being priced in, perhaps the sign of a rise in gold at the same time as an equity rise, shows the guys doing this pushing really know what's about to be...........just my conspiracies of course!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

No surprises with this little fact....

As the Gold price drops off so does Explod 

Spot has a decent strength trend down on 1 hour... it's holding up now on a low could show a minor double bottom but overall still in a selling move.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Inverse head & shoulders? Short bias until support neckline @ $865? Green shoots or weeds?


----------



## SGB

Just playing around with time frames atm so it will be interesting to see if this little scenario plays out.

Both charts display the fib starting point at $252, at the end on 1999 and the start of the bull run.

In the first chart the fib was set at the original high back in 1980 at $873. Apart from the uptick in 2006  it shows a 13.5 month time span (blue)between the 61.8% and 38.2% before the breakout. The pink represents 38.2% to the breakout of the high in approx 12 months. A difference of 1.5 months.

The second chart shows the same resemblance but longer periods towards the breakout. The blue 61.8% - 38.2% took 21 months. Now taking 1.5 away from 21 months leaves the pink area to breakout in 19.5 months or the end of May.

SGB

We'll see how this pans out... the interesting thing to note though is the importance of these support and ressistant points from the fib retrace and how they can measure up to any trading style.


----------



## acertv

Some people are saying gold is heading to $2000 but it doesn't seem to be doing that successfully.

Where do you think it will be in 12 months time?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

acertv said:


> Where do you think it will be in 12 months time?




where ever it is


----------



## lookout

The severe deflation due to collapsing asset bubbles should cause gold to drop in price, with everyone running to cash. 

Governments are attempting to stop deflation by dramatically increasing debt levels to the point that governments themselves may become unstable, rather than simply letting insolvent companies/individuals go bankrupt: the fear that cash may not be safe amidst such instability provides the opposing force pushing gold prices up.

I have 3% of my wealth invested in gold as insurance against government stupidity/corruption.


----------



## Sean K

Old man Buffett is saying inflation is on the horizon, and USD is going down.

Does that mean gold goes up?


*Warren Buffett: Inflation on the horizon*

The Berkshire Hathaway chief says policymakers will have to raise money to pay off costly rescue plans - one way or another. 

OMAHA, Neb. (Fortune) -- Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett defended the government's handling of the economic crisis, but warned that the purchasing power of the dollar may fall as policymakers stretch to finance expensive rescue plans.

Reflecting on the near implosion of the financial system last fall, Buffett said officials should be judged more leniently when facing "as close to a total meltdown as you can imagine."

But he warned that efforts such as the Treasury's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program and the $787 billion fiscal stimulus plan passed this year by Congress will have to be paid for, one way or another.

And with political leaders showing little inclination to raise taxes, one sure way to pay for excess spending is to inflate the value of the currency, Buffett said. The biggest losers in a surge of inflation, he added, would include holders of bonds and other fixed-income assets.

"I haven't had my taxes raised," said Buffett, who has run Berkshire for more than four decades. *"My guess is the ultimate price will be paid by a shrinkage of the value of the dollar."*


----------



## lookout

Until asset deflation is finished I don't see how inflation can be a threat to cash. Once equity and real estate prices stabilize those asset classes will provide alternatives to gold, so there won't be the need to use gold to protect against inflation. The only reason I see for gold to make significant new highs is fear of a failing financial system (whether the failure ultimately happens or not).

note: the main reason I air my views here is to see if someone shoots me down with logical reasoning. I figure we're all wrong more often than we like to admit.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> No surprises with this little fact....
> 
> As the Gold price drops off so does Explod
> 
> Spot has a decent strength trend down on 1 hour... it's holding up now on a low could show a minor double bottom but overall still in a selling move.




not at all, have just shifted home and having a bungled internet chagneover is not helping matters.   but its good to see lively kicking of the explosives.

880 is holding well, a watch of US treasury bonds is worthwhile at the moment.  Too much for me to explain at the moment but sure other bugs are watching.  Am writing this from my daughters place but keep stoking Apo.., the questions and answers helps us all.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

short term Spot Gold.

Looking for a short term rise in gold. 

Price was very bearish with lower lows and a support point becoming resistance. This stayed inline with the current short term down trend.

after a double bottom to rally that broker the short term trend the price has found support on 800 and made a second higher double bottom. this is starting a creeping trend, with a look to $900 if the price keeps rising. 

All the above lines up with the 38.2 Fib point of the current rally from 680.

cheers.


----------



## cooper1308

That $890 level has become somewhat of a magnet.. I'm bullish but happy to see it trade past $960 before getting long


----------



## Glen48

We need the USD to tank before Gold will rise and as the other currencies as weaker than the USD it could be some time.. would hate to wake up one morning and find it 1K ++up


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Glen48 said:


> We need the USD to tank before Gold will rise and as the other currencies as weaker than the USD it could be some time.. would hate to wake up one morning and find it 1K ++up




shares tanking will also help.... not just about the USD ATM


----------



## Borrachobob

Hey Guys found this on another forum makes interesting reading 

http://marketforceanalysis.com/index_assets/COMEX GOLD SILVER OPTION OI 2009.pdf


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Buffett hint.......


> In the 44 years he's been building a reputation as the world's savviest investor, Warren Buffett has rarely offered any good news on gold.
> 
> Until now.
> 
> The two key messages he delivered to 35,000 shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway's AGM in Omaha over the weekend were inflation is coming back; and the US Dollar is headed lower. Both predictions, if fulfilled, are powerfully positive for gold.
> 
> Buffett, who has delivered compounded returns exceeding 20% a year to shareholders for more than four decades, did not mention gold by name. But that will matter little to the yellow metal's continuously growing group of supporters. They are sure to interpret this as further evidence that gold's best days lie ahead.



http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=82710&sn=Detail



> Newmont Mining President and CEO Richard O'Brien says the company has noted a decoupling of the traditional relationship between the weak U.S. dollar and gold prices.
> 
> 
> However, O'Brien expects them to re-couple in the near future, bringing the inflation risks that will continue to prompt investors to invest in gold. In fact, investment demand continues to support gold prices despite other factors, he noted.



http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=82660&sn=Detail

......and Comex spreads getting close to backwardation, again?


----------



## lookout

Borrachobob said:


> Hey Guys found this on another forum makes interesting reading
> 
> http://marketforceanalysis.com/index_assets/COMEX GOLD SILVER OPTION OI 2009.pdf




Thanks for posting the link - looks compelling on face value. Would be great if one of the long time traders could comment on how significant this is in the bigger picture.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

lookout said:


> Thanks for posting the link - looks compelling on face value. Would be great if one of the long time traders could comment on how significant this is in the bigger picture.




Both Wavepicker have looked and discused Gold over the next 6-8 months. Both leaning towards a sidways movement.

could have a wide range....


----------



## SGB

Any takers for a breakout of the channel tonight or will there be some more downward movement...bit of a battle at the moment. 
Watching with interest.


----------



## MRC & Co

Gold going up, markets going up, what is this telling us, if anything?


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Gold going up, markets going up, what is this telling us, if anything?




Well the US indecies and the silver price are leading gold this time, tension in the Middle East rising (particularly Pakistan) so who knows.  I will let someone else sticj thier neck out for thr short term.  The longer term, gold will keep going up whilst money keeps losing value.   Studied the Supermarket price rises lately.


----------



## explod

Have been off the net at home for some four weeks and just catching up with my signals.

Notice the bottom of the uptrend channel on the US$ index has just broken to the downside.   In my view this is very significant and if it continues further tonight a move up in the gold price will be most likely.


----------



## jonojpsg

SGB said:


> Any takers for a breakout of the channel tonight or will there be some more downward movement...bit of a battle at the moment.
> Watching with interest.




Well it certainly seems to be having a good crack at staying over 920 - maybe the potential inflation ogre is rearing its ugly head and scaring people?


----------



## SGB

jonojpsg said:


> Well it certainly seems to be having a good crack at staying over 920 - maybe the potential inflation ogre is rearing its ugly head and scaring people?




Yep,

920 is the tester, needs to hold tonight.


----------



## MRC & Co

SGB said:


> Yep,
> 
> 920 is the tester, needs to hold tonight.




Yep, good call.


----------



## refined silver

explod said:


> I will let someone else sticj thier neck out for thr short term.




No problem!

My guess is we are forming the final upward part of the right hand shoulder on a large Reverse H&S formation. 

That means we mirror the last move down from $1000, back up, and then this 3rd tilt at $1000 will break through and keep going.


----------



## explod

From Jim Sinclair's Minesite, Dan is always well worth a read, thought I would post todays.  There is a bit more to the article with charts if you go to the site.

cheers explod




> Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
> Posted: May 07 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: May 7, 2009 at 2:17 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> The big news today was the price action in the bond market. They were OBLITERATED at noon, CDT, as demand for the auction was much weaker than expected. Bonds were mercilessly murdered once news about the poor demand hit the market wires.
> 
> With commodity prices across most markets moving higher today and the CCI again strong,  I think it is safe to say that fears of deflation have now given way to fears of inflation. Quite simply – bond traders are terrified that the plague of locusts loosed upon the nation by the Administrations’ insanely reckless spending orgy, are now going to devour the sustenance of the land. Investors are positioning themselves accordingly.
> 
> Today, the worst of all possible worlds hit the monetary authorities – the equity markets dropped, the bond market collapsed, the dollar was weaker continuing its recent slide and commodities were all higher. I am not sure what trick they intend to pull out of their hat but whatever it is, it had better be good because the market is speaking in no uncertain terms that the jig is up and no one is swallowing the line that we can borrow our way into prosperity. Heaven help us especially the mortgage industry which must be spinning in their rooms at what they are witnessing in the interest rate markets.
> 
> I am still short pressed for time so I am going to include just a few charts but these charts paint a pretty decent picture of what is taking place.
> 
> Look first at the CCI – The Continuous Commodity Index. We have been watching this index slowing grinding higher now for most of this year. This week’s price action showed a gap higher than was above the recent highs. Clearly, there is very strong buying in this sector as investors who can read the trends are now positioning themselves in advance of the coming wave of inflation.
> 
> 
> Gold closed above the downsloping trendline but not in a convincingly enough fashion to constitute a bona fide breakout. It must still take out $920 on a pit closing basis to start an uptrend. The price action however is friendly and gold is slowly grinding higher even in the face of obvious official sector opposition to the price rise.


----------



## moXJO

MRC & Co said:


> Gold going up, markets going up, what is this telling us, if anything?




The threat of rising Inflation being priced in?


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Gold going up, markets going up, what is this telling us, if anything?




means i make double my money 

edit: luckily closed out before the current retrace


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Well I think that's about it, the money shufflers have won! Good trading and good bye


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well I think that's about it, the money shufflers have won! Good trading and good bye




Yeh but the money printers are running them down Uncle.

Todays observations from Dan.



> Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
> Posted: May 08 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: May 8, 2009 at 2:09 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> It is evident after yesterday’s and today’s price action that the US monetary authorities are working overtime to thwart any rallies in the Comex gold market. Yesterday’s volume was the largest we have seen in more than a month but in spite of that, open interest in the active June contract increased only by a piddly 1,883 contracts. The push by gold bulls into the $920 level set off an avalanche of buy stops which was confirmed by the meager increase in open interest in that month on a volume of 124,794 in that month alone. The volume in the June was larger than the entire daily combined volume of all pit contracts for any day in more than a month! The amount of buy stops that were set off must have been enormous. Yet, price was repulsed in the face of a massive buying binge and promptly shoved back below the $920 level again. Only a fool or a price rigger would sell in such quantity when that volume of automatic buy orders are flooding the pit.
> 
> Today we saw the exact same pattern repeated once again – gold moved up strongly into the $920 level only to be summarily executed by its enemies. Make no mistake about our enemies in the gold arena – they can read technical charts and are fearful of a breach of $920 on a close because that will bring in momentum based buying and begin an upside trending move.
> 
> There really is not much to be gained any more by condemning this government sanctioned descent into third world banana republic techniques where crony capitalism replaces free market economics. The bullion banks get billions and billions of dollars courtesy of the taxpayers to bail them out from their stupidity and greed with the caveat that they must do their master’s bidding and work to keep the pretense that the creation of unlimited gazillions in paper dollars has no inflationary consequences. Most of the investment world outside of the US and the leaders of China, Russia, etc. know that the US authorities have been reduced to rigging the gold market as our nation goes into decline.  Still,  until those who buy gold to protect their wealth learn that these paper markets are nothing but diversions intended to suck up capital that could otherwise be used to acquire the real physical metal, the bullion banks will be able to get away with their jig.
> 
> The Dollar collapsed today breaking below the March 2009 low and the 40 week moving average in the process. Even the Yen moved up against it in today’s session. The result was a surge higher in large number of commodities with the energy complex in particular quite strong. Crude oil has pushed within $1.55 of $60 barrel! We continue to see this reflation trade which is pushing the CCI steadily higher. While the bullion banks are attempting to prevent gold from signaling that the market shift is now away from DEFLATION and towards INFLATION by sitting on its price, unfortunately for them, they cannot sit on the entire commodity complex which is reflected in the steady rise in the CCI.  Good luck guys – you are going to need it. Our monetary officials in conjunction with the current administration have put into place policies which guarantee the Dollar’s descent into mediocrity.
> 
> Bonds managed a bit of a bounce today which in the scheme of things is probably more related to profit taking by shorts. The technical damage in the long bond has been done however with the market now thumbing its nose in the face of the Fed.
> 
> The mining shares are dramatically outperforming the paper gold price with the HUI and the XAU moving up into this year’s highs once again. If the HUI can maintain its current footing as of the time I write this, it is on target to put in its highest weekly closing price for this year. The XAU is similar but not quite as impressive looking as its cousin on the weekly chart. Still, the XAU is trading solidly above the 50 week moving average and has a shot at the 100 week if it can close above 143. It is appearing more and more likely that the shares are now leading bullion. If they continue to exhibit strength, the job of the price riggers at the Comex is going to become increasingly complicated.


----------



## bowman

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck's take  on gold and the markets.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=159613F6-1871-E587-E18ACAF3A6C34D64


----------



## lookout

If your view coincides with that of professional analysts does it mean you have a greater than even chance of being wrong?


----------



## explod

All quiet on the gold front yet the sidways consolidation at such a high level is reminiscent of that back about August 07 when it broke from US$700 to 1000 for the first hit.  Two more since. will the 4th break to new highs

US$ index has broken below the bottom of its uptrend channell which IMHO is significant.

Not making predictions but gold looks strong. 

cheers explod


----------



## >Apocalypto<

gold 1 hour USD

lean towards gold to came down to 920. it's is in a bullish triangle but this sideways price smells of distribution. need the trend to hold...

break of the resistance of course is bullish.

in a intraday support of a trend cont. 15min eur/usd and cable all trying to put in bottoms.

market will show us the way.....


----------



## Aussiest

>Apocalypto< said:


> gold 1 hour USD
> 
> lean towards gold to came down to 920. it's is in a bullish triangle but this sideways price smells of distribution. need the trend to hold...
> 
> break of the resistance of course is bullish.
> 
> in a intraday support of a trend cont. 15min eur/usd and cable all trying to put in bottoms.
> 
> market will show us the way.....




What the hell does this mean Apocalypto? You haven't labelled your chart very well.

Gold will do what it does. Simple: a downward trend tonight on the NASDAQ and gold will rally. All quiet on the western front, and gold will likely fall.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Aussiest said:


> What the hell does this mean Apocalypto? You haven't labelled your chart very well.
> 
> Gold will do what it does. Simple: a downward trend tonight on the NASDAQ and gold will rally. All quiet on the western front, and gold will likely fall.




learn to read a chart then come back to me.

if you want a exact direction in this biz stop and go to the casino.....


----------



## Aussiest

>Apocalypto< said:


> learn to read a chart then come back to me.
> 
> if you want a exact direction in this biz stop and go to the casino.....




Charts aren't everything. Look at the last few days on the share market. But, if you want to rely on charts, good luck to you


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Aussiest said:


> Charts aren't everything. Look at the last few days on the share market. But, if you want to rely on charts, good luck to you




cheers, I need it


----------



## MRC & Co

WTF, Aussiest, you just learnt off Tech/a position sizing and how to trail a stop, now your a critique and giving advice?  

Don't know why I waste my time.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MRC & Co said:


> WTF, Aussiest, you just learnt off Tech/a position sizing and how to trail a stop, now your a critique and giving advice?
> 
> Don't know why I waste my time.




It's all good MRC I am sure you and other members could see the message in the chart I posted....

If Aussiest is a little blind to the situation then in time he will learn.....

By the way i traded the SPI this morning had a very nice short on 2 min..... sweet

well it was a CFD SPI so not really the spi I guess 

Goldies,

anti usd team is still trying to put in support, took 15 off the cable and still waiting on a euro set up.... the main word is waiting!

could see gold hold the trend if a rally gets going....


----------



## MRC & Co

>Apocalypto< said:


> By the way i traded the SPI this morning had a very nice short on 2 min..... sweet




Ah sweet, your probably doing better than me on it, lol, SPI has been bad lately, a lot of equity movement is happening in European timezone, so unfortunately, we just gap and then chop around a lot, not many big days of volatility this wk.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MRC & Co said:


> Ah sweet, your probably doing better than me on it, lol, SPI has been bad lately, a lot of equity movement is happening in European timezone, so unfortunately, we just gap and then chop around a lot, not many big days of volatility this wk.




A lucky one off 

The FOREX has been a real Challenge for last 2 months. 

Love trading!


----------



## Aussiest

MRC & Co said:


> WTF, Aussiest, you just learnt off Tech/a position sizing and how to trail a stop, now your a critique and giving advice?
> 
> Don't know why I waste my time.




Critiquing and giving advice? I just said that techincal analysis alone does not predict the market direction. There are other forces at play.

And as for the chart, it has a few lines drawn through it. What is that supposed to mean? I could interpret that any way i like, as Apocalypto has interpreted his/her own way.

I could find many examples here of how people have cut and pasted charts, posted them here with analyses and interpreted them and been wrong.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Aussiest said:


> Critiquing and giving advice? I just said that techincal analysis alone does not predict the market direction. There are other forces at play.
> 
> And as for the chart, it has a few lines drawn through it. What is that supposed to mean? I could interpret that any way i like, as Apocalypto has interpreted his/her own way.
> 
> I could find many examples here of how people have cut and pasted charts, posted them here with analyses and interpreted them and been wrong.




lol so we have an expert, ok big shot where is gold heading and I want to see u  dollar accurate as TA is rubbish to u.....

read that post and look at the price not the lines moron.

I clearly see two situations with a third if one of the two is confirmed, cant u guru???

sheesh....

go make a million charger....


----------



## Aussiest

I'm not trying to make a million dollars.

Good luck to you if you are!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Aussiest said:


> I'm not trying to make a million dollars.
> 
> Good luck to you if you are!




no not a million yet but a consistent 200+ pips a week


----------



## Aussiest

>Apocalypto< said:


> no not a million yet but a consistent 200+ pips a week




That's great, honestly!  I'm glad to hear an Aussie is cleaning up, especially a Melbournian 

I just don't think that TA alone can predict the market direction, but maybe i expressed myself wrong.

Let's just call it a day and agree to disagree. That neither of us has a crystal ball and if you did, you bet i'd be your best friend.  Lol...

Sense of humour  

No, but really. In all seriousness, if i am wrong, i gladly admit it. And, as you would know, the market makes me pay the price...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

That's great, honestly!  I'm glad to hear an Aussie is cleaning up, especially a Melbournian 

I am not pulling in 200 pips a week ATM.  I am working on it. I am doing ok.

I just don't think that TA alone can predict the market direction, but maybe i expressed myself wrong.

Depends how u look at a chart many ways to. charts interperate every thing games and opinion every thing. preperation for news. it's all there. You can't say a chart got it wrong as it only shows what's told to.

Let's just call it a day and agree to disagree. That neither of us has a crystal ball and if you did, you bet i'd be your best friend.  Lol...

ok

Sense of humour  

No, but really. In all seriousness, if i am wrong, i gladly admit it. And, as you would know, the market makes me pay the price...

they sure make me pay the price when I slip up.....


----------



## Aussiest

>Apocalypto< said:


> COLOR="Blue"]Depends how u look at a chart many ways to. charts interperate every thing games and opinion every thing. preperation for news. it's all there. You can't say a chart got it wrong as it only shows what's told to.[/COLOR]




No offense and in all seriousness, I've never gotten how somebody can predict _the future_ on chart patterns. I see what you mean by "it's all there, it tells the story". I just don't get how/why some people can predict and "trade" from a chart, when it's historical information. Maybe i'm missing something? I do, however, adhere to some support & resistance patterns and that's only because i have seen them in real life action. Eg, i've followed certain stocks and seen how market psychology combined with news events has affected certain SP action.

Oh yeah, look at the POG atm. Interesting. My prediction was: US rallies tonight (which i doubt), gold fluctuates down a bit. US slumps, gold up.

I've been following NCM and am confused by the price action.

Your opinion on the POG and how it is affecting gold stocks at the moment?! It's all a bit weird at the moment. My only conclusion is that punters are unsure of market direction at the moment and therefore are not betting on defensive stocks It really should have rallied by now.


----------



## CanOz

>Apocalypto< said:


> A lucky one off
> 
> The FOREX has been a real Challenge for last 2 months.





Whew! Here i thought it was just me!

Why is it that its been so difficult? Risk aversion? Range bound?

Your thoughts Apocal?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Aussiest said:


> I've never gotten how somebody can predict _the future_ on chart patterns. I see what you mean by "it's all there, it tells the story". I just don't get how/why some people can predict and "trade" from a chart, when it's historical information. Maybe i'm missing something? I do, however, adhere to some support & resistance patterns and that's only because i have seen them in real life action. Eg, i've followed certain stocks and seen how market psychology combined with news events has affected certain SP action.
> 
> 
> Your opinion?




Aussiest, most generally Technicians try and use probability and then trade and money management techniques to squew the numbers in your favor so that over a period of time your system is profitable. Its not about being right, its about being wrong for less time and money.

Nothing can predict the future, yet.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## GumbyLearner

CanOz said:


> Aussiest, most generally Technicians try and use probability and then trade and money management techniques to squew the numbers in your favor so that over a period of time your system is profitable. Its not about being right, its about being wrong for less time and money.
> 
> Nothing can predict the future, yet.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Yes no-one can predict the future!


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> Yes no-one can predict the future!




Very true, but we can follow the trend.

Todays close of US$930.90 is a significant event according to analysts.

We will have to wait and see, but the trend is certainly up folks.

regards explod


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Whew! Here i thought it was just me!
> 
> Why is it that its been so difficult? Risk aversion? Range bound?
> 
> Your thoughts Apocal?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz





Hi Canoz

Mate the problem with the spot cash markets is the interbank credit problems. Yes the good old subprime...

All the banks on the FOREX (interbank market) trade with each other on credit lines. ATM with the losses and the destruction of Lehman Brothers and the massive capital reductions via losses it's killed liquidity. (lending fear)

The FOREX feels a lot different to 06-mid 08. Also with rates at these stupid levels the carry trades have been cut massively. 

Good old melt downs! 

Hope you're doing well mate...

Good Trading

Joseph


----------



## MRC & Co

Yep, it's a tough old time hey Joseph!  

I reckon this year, there is probably 5x less month on offer in this trading game!    Ah well, gotta do what you gotta do!  For us that love it, the passion doesn't die, regardless of how much you earn!

All the best.


----------



## CanOz

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Canoz
> 
> Mate the problem with the spot cash markets is the interbank credit problems. Yes the good old subprime...
> 
> All the banks on the FOREX (interbank market) trade with each other on credit lines. ATM with the losses and the destruction of Lehman Brothers and the massive capital reductions via losses it's killed liquidity. (lending fear)
> 
> The FOREX feels a lot different to 06-mid 08. Also with rates at these stupid levels the carry trades have been cut massively.
> 
> Good old melt downs!
> 
> Hope you're doing well mate...
> 
> Good Trading
> 
> Joseph




I couldn't be better Joseph, i trust the same for you.

I'm in the middle of Soros' new book and he eludes to the FX markets a couple of times, its a great read if you want to know how this disaster came about and what governments could do to repair the damage. Of course there is the small matter of political will involved here.

Take care Joseph,


CanOz


----------



## explod

Very quiet around here, unusual.   But not on the gold front.   After some consolidation we are now have a nice steady rise.   I think that a large uptick may be soon and the 1000 mark is not too far away at that.   

The US dollar is gradually falling from its uptrend and looking like it may fall as fast as it rose last year.  The Dow last night only fell 50 points but it was on a big increase in volume.   Sparks are set to fly folks ... but we shall see.

cheers and looking for you to tell I am wrong

explod


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> cheers and looking for you to tell I am wrong
> 
> explod




looking for who??

I am with u explod I am long eur/usd......


----------



## skyQuake

Anyone see price action last nite? I haven't been looking at gold for a while but last night just seemed like pure strength. 

Base metals, Oil were tanking, usd was rallying but gold held on very resiliently and eventually rocketed off.


----------



## wonderrman

The above chart does not bode well for the US dollar but it encourages ones investment in the commodity of gold. Massive monetary printing from the Federal Reserve's of this world might get us out of this liquidity crisis in the short term. It will only cause more problems and prolong the underlying issue in the long-term.

This is the U.S money base and I don't think anyone could argue that it has been dangerously increased by Helicopter Ben and the other crooks who control (but probably not for to much longer) the world's capital flows.

Add on the reality that the U.S dollar will probably not be the reserve currency of the world in a few years time and you would say the U.S are royally screwed either way. China has come out and stated that they will buy resources, raw materials, like gold. Russia has said that they will convert to the Euro as their reserve currencies. I'm sure many countries will follow their lead and this would cause the greatest crisis to the United States. The massive public debt and trade deficit will not be able to be funded and the US bond market will make for an interesting picture. 

I will put some analysis up on Gold when my chart service is working.

Wonder


----------



## MRC & Co

wonderrman said:


> The massive public debt and trade deficit will not be able to be funded




Yes, from my understanding, a trade deficit must be funded by inflows of mainly speculative capital.

When you have both a deficit and outflows of speculative capital, you must have a huge currency depreciation to bring your exports back in line with your imports and create some kind of balance.

Add in a potentially NEGATIVE real interest rate, and the USD has some absolutely catastrophic consequences coming to it (potentially the fastest move coming right now to create the parabolic move to the downside) influenced further by the trend following nature of currencies.  

I believe this is what Soros meant when he said in an interview not too long ago, that he KNOWS which way the USD is headed.  I've never seen him so sure on a move before.  

I'm licking my chops at the potential of this situation.  A good idea IMO is to buy the ETF DXDDX and long gold, this ETF is a short based USD index of 250% leverage, which would hedge any move on gold you would loose to a relative rise in the AUD and still have you short 1.5x USD against a basket of currencies.

Good trading gold bugs, the time you have been waiting for seems to be drawing near.............


----------



## Ageo

Gold is useless because any gains are being wiped from the increase in AUD.

What the gold bugs in the physical market are expecting is a continue rise in gold and a sharp fall in the AUD.

An increase would restore some hope and optimism in the physical world as everyone has held off a little.


----------



## chatty

I hope AUD will not appreciate any further. My physical gold price hasn't increased at all.


----------



## explod

chatty said:


> I hope AUD will not appreciate any further. My physical gold price hasn't increased at all.




Your gold is a least holding parity and the AU dollar is buying more (going up compared to the others falling) so you are wealthier.  Try buying gold bars at the market price, you cant, there is a huge premium now and world shortage.   Have a good read over this thread and you will be pleased as I am that we are holding physical. 

On the gold price itself, a no brainer now, just a matter of how much longer it can be held down with jawboning.

cheers explod


----------



## MRC & Co

chatty said:


> I hope AUD will not appreciate any further. My physical gold price hasn't increased at all.




You could buy UDN the ETF short USD index.  Personally, if you were long gold, not insulating yourself against currency movements (considering gold rises when the USD falls), is a bit of a waste IMO.


----------



## wonderrman

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, from my understanding, a trade deficit must be funded by inflows of mainly speculative capital.
> 
> When you have both a deficit and outflows of speculative capital, you must have a huge currency depreciation to bring your exports back in line with your imports and create some kind of balance.
> 
> Add in a potentially NEGATIVE real interest rate, and the USD has some absolutely catastrophic consequences coming to it (potentially the fastest move coming right now to create the parabolic move to the downside) influenced further by the trend following nature of currencies.




Hello, yes a trade/fiscal deficit is funded by the ~$60 trillion bond market. When governments of this world stop buying US bonds, which make up approximately half of the market they will have hell to pay. 

But it won't just be that, it is amazing that the US Treasury is buying US bonds so this in effect is money printing. Anyone who argues that inflation will not be a factor within the next bull market when Fed rates will need to be raised is quite silly. The fact that the populus can trust and believe these dishonest scum is bewildering. 



MRC & Co said:


> I believe this is what Soros meant when he said in an interview not too long ago,




You wouldn't have a link would you? 

wonder.


----------



## MRC & Co

wonderrman said:


> You wouldn't have a link would you?
> 
> wonder.




Sorry can't find it again, came accross it on my search on the subject.

However, I believe it must have been older than I originally thought, as I saw a very recent report stating he now thinks the USD has already experienced a lot of it's decline.  Not sure his current thought process, but there is no clear nexus between that statement and his old thoughts on currencies and their drivers.

Unless I am missing something..........perhaps another attempt to spend their way out of the mess as per the 1982 international debt crisis?  What better environment to do so than in a deflationary one.........


----------



## Tradesurfer

Looking at a weekly chart of gold (using the ETF symbol:GLD), we can see that Gold is about to come to a major decision  point. Will it wind up being a triple top or a breakout of the very deep triangle?

A couple of key points to consider.

1- If it breaks out of the triangle and above the old 1000.44 high, based upon calculating a triangle breakout target that puts the move to potentially 1200 or so. Traders looking at a potential long position might wait for that breakout to buy and then place their stop below what was old resistance but would now be support.

2- Thos looking at a short sale might look to see if price stalls at the old highs and retraces. Should that happen some traders may look to short Gold or the ETF traded on the US market symbol:GLD and place their stops a little above the old highs to protect themselves.

I have attached a weekly chart  (each price bar is 1 week) to help look at Gold from a longer term view.

So where will gold go? Should be decision time shortly.

Off course there are not sure things and as an earlier post mentioned technicians are trying to play the probabilities so its crucial to keep losses small. 

Note- since this is the ETF chart and not Gold itself, a price of 1000 in gold would be 100 for the etf.


----------



## arco

Nice trade on the Ichi break - testing the Kumo base line now...


----------



## explod

arco said:


> Nice trade on the Ichi break - testing the Kumo base line now...





Yes and we have bounced off the support now at US$940 to return to last weeks area around 950.   As the traders rub thier eyes after the long weekend in the US the manipuators vain attempt to break the trend has failed.

Dont adhere too much to Sinclair as he is a bit over the top but longer term the following scenario if half correct will reward the stayers:-



> In The News Today
> Posted: May 26 2009     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: May 26, 2009 at 5:22 pm
> 
> Filed under: In The News
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> Predictions:
> 
> 1. Gold reacts as currency support for the dollar enters mid June to a slow decline (that is the official definition of a strong dollar policy, really).
> 2. End of 2nd week going into the beginning of the 3rd week of June Gold launches towards and this time through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation.
> 3. Gold rises to $1224 where it hesitates.
> 4. The OTC derivative market takes on the dollar as short sellers into dollar support.
> 5. This OTC derivative currency short position builds.
> 6. It is the US dollar where Armstrong will get his WATERFALL.
> 7. The main selling takes place when Israel makes a major miscalculation.
> 8. Hyperinflation is always and will continue to be a currency event.
> 9. Hyperinflation will be a product of the upcoming massive OTC derivative short dollar raid.
> 
> Should I be correct in the gold price action going into late June, it will fit Armstrong’s criterion for a move to $5000.
> 
> Alf’s work permits an over-run of the gold price to $3500 in the major 3rd phase, indicating overruns into the major 5th.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> As the traders rub thier eyes after the long weekend in the US the manipuators vain attempt to break the trend has failed.
> QUOTE]
> 
> What type of fairy world do u live in Explod?
> 
> So let me get this straight, every time gold sees some selling it's being manipulated!
> 
> Give me a break......


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> So let me get this straight, every time gold sees some selling it's being manipulated!
> 
> Give me a break......



 Yep thats right.

Of course the manipulators don't seem to be able to hold down that far more useful US dollar alternative, oil


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep thats right.
> 
> Of course the manipulators don't seem to be able to hold down that far more useful US dollar alternative, oil




Someone did a good job on oil from 140 then to 40.  
the crash of course.

But gold is the enemy of fiat currencies and the banking cartels facilitate its fall at every opportunity to protect and prolong the live of the valueless US dollar.  (China getting into them for buyuing there own bonds, what a joke..the weimer republic rises again)  It happens at partibular technical levesl and at times when we are asleep or coming out of holidays.  I have been watching it too close for too long not to read the picture of its movement.  It is most alway accompanied by media jawboning particularly from Bloomberg and Nadler on Kitko.

Apo, go to the Privateer webpage and download a couple of his blurbs, which are free to newcomers.   A radical economist some would say but his projections of the last five years have been spot on.  He deals in pure economic fundamantals and all information is based on facts duly notated.  He backs it with well presented point and figure charting.                                DISCLAIMER:  I have no association with him and due to shifting house not financial to the newsletter at this time.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Apo, go to the Privateer webpage and download a couple of his blurbs, which are free to newcomers.   A radical economist some would say but his projections of the last five years have been spot on.  He deals in pure economic fundamantals and all information is based on facts duly notated.  He backs it with well presented point and figure charting.                                DISCLAIMER:  I have no association with him and due to shifting house not financial to the newsletter at this time.




Explod,

I try not to get involved with that type of thing as it distracts me from my trading and breeds poor results as I am no longer objective.....

I just concentrate on what the market tells me not a Guru.....

If it works for u then well done.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Explod,
> 
> I try not to get involved with that type of thing as it distracts me from my trading and breeds poor results as I am no longer objective.....
> 
> I just concentrate on what the market tells me not a Guru.....
> 
> If it works for u then well done.




I do do some short day trades but rarely.  My perspective is longer term trend following in a sector that is also in a medium to longer term thread.  I do couple that with some fundamentals but more the sense of what markets and currencies are doing and the fundamental reasons for thier moves.

So please do not fret I respect and know that avid stock followers do better than I do but I can walk from the screen for days or weeks and not have to worry too much.  My own basics do well enough for me.

A few years ago I did do 12 months or so glued to the screen and increased my entire share portfolio by 65%   My age and hypertension is against me now but my 30% average is probably better than most.

Cheers  explod


----------



## arco

.
My concern is the direction of gold is in the next few hours/day, and I dont read any of the guru's predictions on where the yellow metal might be going. My decision is based only on the H1/H4 chart.

2 more great opps over the last 24hrs


----------



## explod

arco said:


> .
> My concern is the direction of gold is in the next few hours/day, and I dont read any of the guru's predictions on where the yellow metal might be going. My decision is based only on the H1/H4 chart.
> 
> 2 more great opps over the last 24hrs




Maybe we need gold direction threads for Short term, medium term and long term.

Maybe, "gold as a viable investment"   "gold trading" and the current one for medium term.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Maybe, "gold as a viable investment"




Just on that one. Anyone see the 7:30 report last night?? Spewing out the positive gold line.


*NOT A GOOD SIGN*


----------



## MrBurns

I think we're headed for inflation, in fact no doubt about it, i'm thinking of going reasonably heavy into gold at Perth Mint, they charge 2% in, ouch !

Anyone think I'm crazy before I do this ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

MrBurns said:


> I think we're headed for inflation, in fact no doubt about it, i'm thinking of going reasonably heavy into gold at Perth Mint, they charge 2% in, ouch !
> 
> Anyone think I'm crazy before I do this ?




No doubt you have a view that last longer than a couple of months?

Then even if it does turn out to be a good trade there would be no need to go all in at once. Bit at a time just in case. 

The ones in love with gold will tell ya you doing the right thing 

But gold may not be the best thing or only trade, many things are good in an inflationary enviro. Just look at the run of oil and stocks recently.

Something the gold bugs have missed badly while they wait for their unfaithful lover to reward them :


----------



## MrBurns

Trembling Hand said:


> No doubt you have a view that last longer than a couple of months?
> 
> Then even if it does turn out to be a good trade there would be no need to go all in at once. Bit at a time just in case.
> 
> The ones in love with gold will tell ya you doing the right thing
> 
> But gold may not be the best thing or only trade, many things are good in an inflationary enviro. Just look at the run of oil and stocks recently.
> 
> Something the gold bugs have missed badly while they wait for their unfaithful lover to reward them :




I'm sure there's truckloads of things out there but I dont trust myself with lots of money, if it's not property I dont trust it, so I just stay out of most of it.

My father once said to me that inflation destroyed his superannuation, dont want that to happen to me.


----------



## wonderrman

MrBurns said:


> I think we're headed for inflation, in fact no doubt about it, i'm thinking of going reasonably heavy into gold at Perth Mint, they charge 2% in, ouch !
> 
> Anyone think I'm crazy before I do this ?





Could you get the gold sent to you and put in a safe in the wall? Just don't tell anyone.

What about safety deposit boxes? Do they still have them in bank headquarters in the city?

wonder.


----------



## explod

wonderrman said:


> Could you get the gold sent to you and put in a safe in the wall? Just don't tell anyone.
> 
> What about safety deposit boxes? Do they still have them in bank headquarters in the city?
> 
> wonder.




Yes they do and that's where I put mine.   Works out at about 0ne half percent per weight value (mix of silver and gold ingots) and that to me is pretty good considering its growth since 2005.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> But gold may not be the best thing or only trade, many things are good in an inflationary enviro. Just look at the run of oil and stocks recently.




Trouble is, any further downturn in the economy (falling USD decreasing demand for Chinese exports, slowing the Chinese economy and a reduction in the demand for commodities), all potentially possible, would have an affect on both stocks and oil, so in themselves, they are probably not as good longer-term global macro plays as what gold is for the sole purpose of hedging against inflation. 

Another theory I have, is to short long-term bonds, as the general public will probably buy these now for the greater yield.  However, to combat what is probably going to be impending inflation due to additional liquidity being added as a stimulant, rates will probably rise in the medium-term and push down bond prices.  Counter-intuitive and disclaimer:  I am no expert in the bond markets.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Another theory I have, is to short long-term bonds, as the general public will probably buy these now for the greater yield.  However, to combat what is probably going to be impending inflation due to additional liquidity being added as a stimulant, rates will probably rise in the medium-term and push down bond prices.  Counter-intuitive and disclaimer:  I am no expert in the bond markets.





In the 1930's most companies and many financial institutional bonds became worthless as business folded.  I would no sooner put money in bonds as give it to the man in the moon.  Should do some reading up on bonds.   At the moment the Federal reserve is buying up thier own bonds because no one else wants them.   Sort of like making paper money for nothing and another reason why gold will skyrocket when the penny starts to drop on the general investment communiity.  Anyway plenty of time to get set, a long way from the taxi driver getting it yet.   Just worth getting your powder dry.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Did anyone catch the story on the 7.30 report last night?

Gold Rush in times of economic turmoil

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/

Bloody gold bug propagandists. Whats the world going too? I can only think of one word


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Just on that one. Anyone see the 7:30 report last night?? Spewing out the positive gold line.
> 
> 
> *NOT A GOOD SIGN*






> GumbyLearner Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Did anyone catch the story on the 7.30 report last night?
> 
> Gold Rush in times of economic turmoil
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
> 
> Bloody gold bug propagandists. Whats the world going too? I can only think of one word




Seems we mostly did.  Ho Hum, must be sumthin to this gold thingo


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Seems we mostly did.  Ho Hum, must be sumthin to this gold thingo




Oh **** I missed TH's post. Domestic blindness can strike at anytime!


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> In the 1930's most companies and many financial institutional bonds became worthless as business folded.  I would no sooner put money in bonds as give it to the man in the moon.  Should do some reading up on bonds.




Not company bonds, Government bonds.

And not buy, short.  And long-term.

Hedge against low or negative real interest rates basically and those trying to buy long-term bonds to actually recieve a decent yield (being payed on longer-term bonds).


----------



## GumbyLearner

Gold broken key resistance of US 965.

This appears very significant in the short term


----------



## cuttlefish

Yeah its looking really interesting.  The consolidation back down to the high 800's has built healthy support and the recent strength is making me feel optimistic.

 .... and as I am the official gold reverse-indicator any optimism I show is a sure sign that its about to top out and reverse  ... I even opened a bunch of new long options positions for the first time in months over the past few days so surely thats a fatal blow for the current rally.   (Also closed a few itm may calls as well that I opened a while back).


----------



## MRC & Co

cuttlefish said:


> Yeah its looking really interesting.  The consolidation back down to the high 800's has built healthy support and the recent strength is making me feel optimistic.




And that too, is why I am optimistic as discussed earlier in the thread with SGB.

We are rallying out of a good base and fundamentals continue to look even more bullish for gold (with the US talk of printing their way out of deflation and debt).  Quite different circumstances than the previous high gold made, but MUCH MUCH more sustainable.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Not company bonds, Government bonds.
> 
> And not buy, short.  And long-term.
> 
> Hedge against low or negative real interest rates basically and those trying to buy long-term bonds to actually recieve a decent yield (being payed on longer-term bonds).




What do think has happenned to General Motors Bonds and the Government bonds of Germany back in the 1920.   Are we not seeing these scenarios coming.

Golds the go and the last few weeks loaded right back into gold stocks as well.


----------



## SGB

Get on Board :bowser:


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> What do think has happenned to General Motors Bonds and the Government bonds of Germany back in the 1920.   Are we not seeing these scenarios coming.
> 
> Golds the go and the last few weeks loaded right back into gold stocks as well.




General Motors are not Government bonds and if US Government bonds collapsed, would you not wreck a huge benefit being short?


----------



## GumbyLearner

MRC & Co said:


> General Motors are not Government bonds and if US Government bonds collapsed, would you not wreck a huge benefit being short?




Funny that, now a lot of people in the US are referring to GM as 'Government Motors'. Which of course it could have been named decades ago. JMO!

I think we are looking at a big night tonight. I think the usual NY open smackdown will not occur this evening. 

What's the likelihood that the IMF will offload a big chuck of bullion in the next few weeks/months?


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> Funny that, now a lot of people in the US are referring to GM as 'Government Motors'. Which of course it could have been named decades ago. JMO!
> 
> I think we are looking at a big night tonight. I think the usual NY open smackdown will not occur this evening.
> 
> What's the likelihood that the IMF will offload a big chuck of bullion in the next few weeks/months?




China has openly offerred to buy the IMF 400 tones they keep harping about and the rest of it they have too.  Think its about 2000tonnes.  China is trying to lay thier hands on off market as much as they can without blowing the price too high.

IMF have been trotting this out now for about three years but can never get the votes together to do it.

Yes gold looks set and many of the big jumps in the last six years have been on the weekly trade close.

We shall see.  US dollar certainly tanking tonight so trap looks set.


----------



## explod

Pundits I follow say that the US$980 may be significant resistance.   It failed in this area in July last year and though we hit the 1000 mark in March a great deal of activity then occurred at this level.   A close above 980 tonight would be a very bullish signal for next week, particularly with the steady consolidating rise of the last month or two.

Psychologically people are concerned for the current market and financial situation so a high cose will bring in new players.   Compared to the breadth of market activity across the globe, the gold sector is a very small one so it is felt that when it goes this time the four figures will be here to stay.

We shall see.


----------



## solomon

Hey Explod I've come a long way since you told me gold was a currency about 12 months ago, I think you said until you understand that don't invest in it! Thanks I took your advice.

From my reading there does seem to be considerably higher volumes on the livecharts gold chart tonight in a period of the trading day that is normally quiet before the wall st open. So I think we could touch 980 easily tonight or else we will see a smackdown from the forces of darkness and gold will drop back to the 920 area.

Any thoughts?


----------



## explod

solomon said:


> From my reading there does seem to be considerably higher volumes on the livecharts gold chart tonight in a period of the trading day that is normally quiet before the wall st open. So I think we could touch 980 easily tonight or else we will see a smackdown from the forces of darkness and gold will drop back to the 920 area.
> 
> Any thoughts?




I agree it looks strong tonight.  Unusual for the rise during our period of trade today also.   The US dollar has dropped another 1 half percent since my last post here and on the three month chart is really starting to tank.

But who knows, we can only follow behind the market.   

920 are, unlikely in my view, the 960 are took a lot of cracking recently, it was an important level going back also.  So I think that level would certainly hold as things stand.

I must spend some time to learn to put up some decent charts, but what I have is adequate for my own purpose so not much motivated.

Learning to read and understand charts was the most valuable part of this business for me.    Anyone not up to that is really handicapped.  Had a brief look at "charting for dummies" recently and wished that had been around when I began.  Having said that it should only be a start to further reading on the subject but it will give you the idea of chart power.


----------



## sam76

$979 and looking strong


----------



## explod

Into the close now as ecpected gold has stalled at breaching the 980 line but on the action next week things are going to be very interesting indeed.

Over the last year or so a lot of posters have expressed frustration that as our dollar rises it takes the shine off the Aussie gold price.  Well the Aussie dollar has continued to gain in the last 24 hours and with that our own gold price has gone up AUS$24   Silver which is my main long term play even more so.

Most know and I will re-state, when the train leaves the station on gold, those holding are going to be pleased indeed.  In my huble opinion of course.  

A number of posters send me PM's for my take.   This is a difficult situation because I am not qualified to do so.  However on the open forum I am quite happy to put in my two cents but we must always remember the regulators are watching.

Cheers explod


PS.   3 minutes prior to the close the Dow was up 3 points, at the close it was 96.53     Obvious that the Fed is not only printing money out of control and buying their own bonds but are propping up the Dow also.   I have noticed this on many occasions but this mornings change was extreme.   Of course Bananke may have announced the holy grail to the sheeple again so will scan the news later to see what it is.    

All good for gold


----------



## SGB

explod said:


> .
> 
> Learning to read and understand charts was the most valuable part of this business for me.    Anyone not up to that is really handicapped.  Had a brief look at "charting for dummies" recently and wished that had been around when I began.  Having said that it should only be a start to further reading on the subject but it will give you the idea of chart power.




explod,

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John J Murphy is probably the best going around in my opinion.

Plan, simply, language is easy to read for beginners and plenty of pictures to grasp the concept of chart construction, trend reversal patterns, M/As ext.. Also covers a general understanding of other theories and time cycles.. Dow and E/W.

Well worth the investment.

SGB


----------



## explod

Thanks for your reference SGB.

Hui index has risen by more that 100% since November.   Our gold stocks are lagging that a bit but expect some change from next week IMHO.


----------



## prana

prana said:


> The problem I have is, with the CRB so low and base metals now looking like a possible turnaround, gold may even see gains in the USD but might not translate to us. It will be a rat race between the rising AUD to see any gains for us - I would say a buying opportunity may even present itself if people start buying AUD and the USD continues to drop on a base metals recovery story - who knows? I don't. I guess I'll wait and see, buy on weakness. Chances are, gold may even actually soften below in USD terms and then come back up again, a correction against the deflationist and inflationist, a double whammy for those already invested. I'm definitely bullish in a >3 month window though so I'll look to get back in thereafter - right now, I'd rather be invested in base metals. Any thoughts to share?





It's been 3 months since my last post. The USD index is looking a breaching a floor, I reckon it's only a matter of time. Silver has done fantastically, so I'll begin loading up on gold. Can't see AUD keeping this strength although it may relative to USD but not against gold - this is now a money markets nightmare, perfect. So Sinner, I'm back into gold !


----------



## explod

The close of 979.60 was the highest monthly close ever.

It is worth looking at the monthly chart for US:GOLD on bigcharts.  The white candle goes from 48 to 69  IN A MONTH.   

The starter has sounded the gun and our patience will be rewarded now.

In My Very Humble Opinion as usual.  "OH how hard it is..."

Of course a few reds helps too.

cheers explod.


----------



## SGB

explod said:


> The close of 979.60 was the highest monthly close ever.
> 
> It is worth looking at the monthly chart for US:GOLD on bigcharts.  The white candle goes from 48 to 69  IN A MONTH.
> 
> The starter has sounded the gun and our patience will be rewarded now.
> 
> In My Very Humble Opinion as usual.  "OH how hard it is..."
> 
> Of course a few reds helps too.
> 
> cheers explod.




Nice:iagree:


----------



## explod

> "We do not believe the sales, should they occur, will harm gold prices," said HSBC analyst James Steel.
> 
> IMF gold sale: US Congress approval next week
> Commodity Online
> 
> LONDON: The International Monetary Fund’s decisiion to sell its gold reserves could get the necessary approval from the US Congress next week.
> 
> At the G20 summit in London in April, participating countries agreed the IMF could sell 403.3 metric tons of gold as part of efforts to leverage up to $6 billion in concessional loans for low-income countries over the next few years.
> 
> In order for the sale to proceed, 85% of IMF shareholders need to approve the proposal. Since the U.S. has 17% of the votes, it has a de facto veto over the proposal, which requires Congressional approval, but IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told Dow Jones Newswires this week he expects Congress will soon approve the sale.
> 
> On Friday, analysts said US Congress may approve International Monetary Fund gold sales as early as next week.
> 
> "This issue appears now fully priced into the gold market and any announcement confirming sales should not move the market - apart from perhaps a knee-jerk reaction," said John Reade, an analyst at UBS.




Here we go again, wonder if it will get through this time.   There certainly worried about the damnned relic, gold they say "its useless".   And how sweet it is, my stocks up an average of 4% this morning.


----------



## explod

> Over on the currency front, the only majors that were down against the greenback today were the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. Both are being used by the carry trade as risk comes back with a vengeance. The Yen in particular was hit hard dropping over 150 points. The Dollar dropped below the 100 WEEK moving average at one point during today’s trading session but has managed to claw its way back to that level for now. It is so oversold that some guys are looking for a bounce although such a bounce will not last long as its technical picture is horrendous. There is a swing low on the weekly chart that was made back in December of last year that corresponds very closely to today’s session low. Should that level give way in the immediate future, the Dollar is going to drop rapidly down towards the 76 level. Below that is major, major support near 72. If that gives way, kiss the dollar goodbye and gold goodbye to the upside.
> 
> June gold has entered into its delivery period. Thus far deliveries are not all that impressive but we will continue to watch this. The action is now centered around the August contract. Open interest remains quite low (388,000) for gold to have made it to less than $10 from the $1,000 mark especially when you consider that the last time gold was up near these levels, open interest was closer to 590,000.
> 
> With the mining shares being hit once again by the same crowd and gold running into the bullion banks’ selling barrage just shy of $1,000, long side players will need to dig in to prevent the short term oriented momentum crowd from moving out and creating some selling pressure. AS long as weakness in the Dollar continues and commodity prices are rising across the board, gold will attract dip buying on any setbacks in price.




Excerpt from gold trader Dan on Jim Sinclair's Minesite. 

Dan Norcini has been trading in the gold pits for over 40 years and have found him to an exellent daily commentator

cheers explod


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Excerpt from gold trader Dan on Jim Sinclair's Minesite.
> 
> 
> 
> June gold has entered into its delivery period. Thus far deliveries are not all that impressive but we will continue to watch this. The action is now centered around the August contract. Open interest remains quite low (388,000) for gold to have made it to less than $10 from the $1,000 mark especially when you consider that the last time gold was up near these levels, open interest was closer to 590,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> long side players will need to dig in to prevent the short term oriented momentum crowd from moving out and creating some selling pressure
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dan Norcini has been trading in the gold pits for over 40 years and have found him to an exellent daily commentator
> 
> cheers explod
Click to expand...


That's funny Explod. here's someone you say knows what he is talking about but countering your BS "gold is manipulated" nonsense.

I'm confused . Does this dude know what he is talking about or is gold manipulated???


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> That's funny Explod. here's someone you say knows what he is talking about but countering your BS "gold is manipulated" nonsense.
> 
> I'm confused . Does this dude know what he is talking about or is gold manipulated???




Matter a fact he often does mention the old PPT, was launched by Reagan back in the old days.   I will post his take when next I spot it.

You part of the PPT maybe.

But I do not vouch for what Dan says, just find him worth following for my own purpose and thought others may find him of interest too.

cheers explod


----------



## roysolder

oh brother i,m confused-is gold going to dive or break through the 1000
thinking bout my shares in ogc explod


----------



## Sean K

roysolder said:


> oh brother i,m confused-is gold going to dive or break through the 1000
> thinking bout my shares in ogc explod



You need to consider your investment horizon roysolder. 

If you're a longer term buy and holder, then who cares what happens in the next few days.

If you're a short term trader, you should be using tight stops.

What are you?


----------



## roysolder

thanks kennas, i bought ogc in october and more along the way.i guess all my shares are long term.being a novice and don,t mind admitting it i beat myself up every time they peak and turn down.
i have 100k in ogc


----------



## Sean K

roysolder said:


> thanks kennas, i bought ogc in october and more along the way.i guess all my shares are long term.being a novice and don,t mind admitting it i beat myself up every time they peak and turn down.
> i have 100k in ogc



Might just be time that you need to determine what type of investor/trader you are and how/when you buy and sell. 

In regards to OGC I suppose you need to seriously consider it's short/long term prospects on whether it's a buy and hold or a trading stock. And the short and long term prospects of gold. Dig into the OGC reports and see what management are like, if they are going to grow, or be taken over, or whatever. Likewise with POG. Is it peaking again at $1000 never to be seen again? Or, if it breaks through, where to? 

Just a couple of things to consider.


----------



## explod

roysolder said:


> thanks kennas, i bought ogc in october and more along the way.i guess all my shares are long term.being a novice and don,t mind admitting it i beat myself up every time they peak and turn down.
> i have 100k in ogc




ogc has been in a very healthy uptrend since January of this year.  For myself I have a rule that if a stock closes down 5% on a day it is sold at market open on the bid the next day.  This stock has fairly good volume, fall on increased volume is another simple sign I look for.  But we all get caught; you just have to get some solid rules for yourself and stick to them .  IMVHO


----------



## roysolder

i do lots of study on the company,too much in fact where my sleep time is being taxed.
they have a lot in their favour at the moment although the us dollar is weakening, oil going up.their production is up 49% expecting to produce 300,000 oz this year(i think Q1 produced 80,000)


----------



## Boyou

Some don't think much of Dan Denning or his On-line publication The Daily Reckoning....just a bit of hope for the holders of Gold smalls...I have plenty of them 

" And by the way, why not a gold exploration boom? Gold mining requires lower capital overheads than bulk materials extraction. And with a rising gold price, it's worth a punt. If the gold mania really takes off (it's starting), look for a boom in the junior explorers." 

Cheers Ya'll


----------



## roysolder

i like the fan analogy boyou, you guys are just a wealth of information lol.
thanks explod for your opinion as well.i am grateful


----------



## explod

Boyou said:


> Some don't think much of Dan Denning or his On-line publication The Daily Reckoning....just a bit of hope for the holders of Gold smalls...I have plenty of them
> 
> " And by the way, why not a gold exploration boom? Gold mining requires lower capital overheads than bulk materials extraction. And with a rising gold price, it's worth a punt. If the gold mania really takes off (it's starting), look for a boom in the junior explorers."
> 
> Cheers Ya'll




You make a good point here and is why I keep an eye on RNG.   Goldstar Resources (delisted GDR) but have a meeting coming up soon.  More by luck I was out but they have the stuff in the ground.  Deep and very hard rock but it will become a goer the way we are heading.  The following from Jim Sinclair's minesite is on the same track:



> NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Declining supply and investor demand driven by economic uncertainty and future inflation are likely to keep gold prices high, mining company officials said Tuesday. "Our view is that the gold market is in probably one of its most promising phases," said Willie Jacobsz, head of investor relations with Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI).
> 
> He cited economic uncertainty around the world, future inflation and "a very real decline in global mine supply" as cause for his company’s optimism on the gold price.
> 
> "We are simply not finding any new reserves anywhere in the world," Jacobsz said at a New York Society of Security Analysts metals and mining conference. Further, deposits where gold can be relatively easily extracted are being tapped out, he said.
> 
> Meanwhile, investors have been snapping up the metal as a currency, uncertainty and inflation hedge.
> 
> "The current rally in the gold price is driven by investment demand," Jacobsz said. "We don’t see sentiment changing very soon."
> 
> Gold prices will remain strong as long as investors keep flocking to the metal, said Victor Flores, senior mining analyst with HSBC.
> 
> "There has been a great deal of interest in gold from investors," Flores said. "As long as gold ETF [exchange-traded fund] demand remains robust, you will see gold [prices] hold up." Although deflationary pressures are strong at the moment, higher inflation and weaker currencies will probably assert themselves down the road as results of government stimulus efforts to fight the economic downturn, Flores said.
> 
> "At the moment we are fighting deflation," Flores said. "What’s really lurking around the corner is inflation."
> 
> Investors historically have bought gold as a hedge against inflation because they see it holding its value more strongly than other assets amid rising prices. It is also bought as a safe-haven in times of political and economic uncertainty.
> 
> "Gold is the only asset class that withstood the current economic downturn," said William Biggar, president and chief executive of North American Palladium Ltd. (PAL), which last month completed the acquisition of Cadiscor Resources Inc. and its gold mine in Quebec.
> 
> "Our growth strategy is focused on precious metals and acquiring quality gold assets," Biggar said.
> 
> -By Matt Whittaker, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5959;
> matt.whittaker@dowjones.com


----------



## explod

Now I know you may want to shoot me down but the following is not what will happen it is just what I think.

Since the start of May we have had a steady rise with steps of good consolidation making the current level well supported.   The steps of consolidation were at US$915, 930, 955 and now at 980.   In early London trade last night gold was sold off down to 968.  It now sits at 986.

The $US index is moving down as I write after a bit of a rally after the US market close.   I think we will have a breakout any time before Fridays close to the next step, around the 1000 mark.   On the last months action this will be a week of sit before the next upleg.   We may have this for some time to 1030, after that is new territory and could be bingo.

we will wait and see.  

Other views and criticism would be helpful

cheers explod


----------



## solomon

I've got no idea on the charts, maybe by this time next year I'll have taken your advice and learn to read charts, I can only take one bit of good advice per year.

My obserations are that the volumes seem to have dropped off a bit and there have been none of the big smackdown drops at the US open of late. Both of those factors I think bode well for at least a holding pattern around $980, and perhaps another move up.

If we start seeing the smackdowns of large price drops I'll be getting nervous.

Also it will be interesting to see how the POG reacts to the almost certain popular news story of IMF sales due anytime now. If $980 holds again that is positive in my opinion.


----------



## explod

solomon said:


> Also it will be interesting to see how the POG reacts to the almost certain popular news story of IMF sales due anytime now. If $980 holds again that is positive in my opinion.




They trotted that story out last week and all it has done was to perhaps stall the inevitable shot past the 1000 mark for awhile.   The fact that silver is gaining strength (ahead of gold) says to me on many observations of this over the last 5 years that a big uplift in the price of both maybe not too far away.

I notice also a fair bit of volotility in both currencies and the metals happenning which also has been a pointer to a larger price directional change.

We will soon see which way it goes IMHO

Chuck Butler of Everbank is worth reading from time to time, he puts out a daily free to all on currencies.    His link:    www.everbank.com


----------



## skyQuake

Lets see how it holds up tonight, could be a turning point. Not looking too swell at the moment..


----------



## explod

skyQuake said:


> Lets see how it holds up tonight, could be a turning point. Not looking too swell at the moment..




There is and old saying that goes something like this.  "A truly strong bull will buck the weak players off at every turn".   That fact that there is nervousness out there indicates something is afoot. 

We could see quite a fall to push the stops on gold but the fundamentals of money losing value and gold holding its tangible value are very solidly in place.  Unless the financial system can play the game back to real value, gold must continue to rise.  Physical gold is scarce because the smart money has been accumulating.

I'm sure there is someone out there who can put it in a nut shell better than I.  However the movements tonight could be interesting.

But its bed time for this old black duck.

cheers explod.


----------



## explod

its bounced off 975 to 977 as I wrote the last post, lets see what New York does when the Nymex opens in 20 minutes.

Maybe I'll hang around for the fun (if any) a little.


----------



## explod

The US$ index is trying to go above 79 where it is meeting resistance, if it goes above that point gold will fail tonight.  An interesting tussle and will see the result in the morning


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Could be a return to 'safety' on employment data etc., and some profit taking in equities although the real test will be if gold corellates positively with the DX this time around or does it's own thing? Depends when Goldman Sachs Fed finally lose control?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Could be a return to 'safety' on employment data etc., and some profit taking in equities although the real test will be if gold corellates positively with the DX this time around or does it's own thing? Depends when Goldman Sachs Fed finally lose control?




Outa them there hills came a voice, now that's a bullish sign.

Yes we are at an interesting point Uncle and gold will chase them out of them there foxholes.  And as old (Qld) Joe would say: (and I did not like him myself)    "Dont' you worry about that"

cheers explod.


----------



## solomon

It looks like we saw the aforementioned smackdown.

My understanding of human nature means I don't disregard the possibility of massive intervention in the Gold markets.

If there is intervention I reckon the US must have blown a heap of their gold on keeping the price down to date and must be looking at a lot of floor space in the vaults. I also read somewhere recently (perhaps on the silver bear cafe) an analysis of US gold flows that suggested pretty much that large scale selling by the US government was the only way to account for the gold outflows reported by the US Bureau of Stats in 2007 and 2008.

Given we except the premise of intervention my prediction is that the US government's ability to surpress the price will increasingly be limited.

There are two likely patterns to emerge, the smackdown (sharp negative sell off during US trading) occurring only when other news/fundamentals for Gold are negative, thereby maximising the impact of the smackdown. Or alternatley a sustained period of smackdowns over days or weeks and then a sustained period of the inconspicuous absence of the smackdowns for days or weeks.

I guess they aren't either or strategies, but slowly leaking gold onto the market will not help hold the price down, so either or both of these strategies would make sense.

What do others think?

I'd love engagement on the premise that the US may be intervening in gold markets rather than a whole lot of people calling me an idiot for believing it is possible.


----------



## explod

solomon said:


> My understanding of human nature means I don't disregard the possibility of massive intervention in the Gold markets.
> 
> I'd love engagement on the premise that the US may be intervening in gold markets rather than a whole lot of people calling me an idiot for believing it is possible.





It seems so to me but have also been shot down many times also.

A number of US analysts and pundits continually refer to it.   I have decided to do a day by day analysis of gold's fluctuation.  From a cursery look only a few days ago it appears that the US market takes it down.  Of late, Asia and Europe have been pushing it up.  So it will be interesting to put some real data together.  

In a few days I will post the result.


----------



## solomon

explod said:


> It seems so to me but have also been shot down many times also.
> 
> A number of US analysts and pundits continually refer to it.   I have decided to do a day by day analysis of gold's fluctuation.  From a cursery look only a few days ago it appears that the US market takes it down.  Of late, Asia and Europe have been pushing it up.  So it will be interesting to put some real data together.
> 
> In a few days I will post the result.




I am way too busy to do it, but if you have time explod, could you add to your research days in which the price dropped by $15-$20 (chosen arbitrarily) or more very quickly to see if there is any pattern?

What I'm trying to work out is a way to trade what I think is going on.

One trade could be to buy on US close and sell before US open.

There may be other more profitable trades?


----------



## skyQuake

I remember a time when it used to be the opposite. US pushing it up...

Maybe its got to do with US brokers waking up and putting a whole stream of orders through.

Anyways lets see if the bargain buying will fade when New York opens


----------



## explod

solomon said:


> I am way too busy to do it, but if you have time explod, could you add to your research days in which the price dropped by $15-$20 (chosen arbitrarily) or more very quickly to see if there is any pattern?
> 
> What I'm trying to work out is a way to trade what I think is going on.
> 
> One trade could be to buy on US close and sell before US open.
> 
> There may be other more profitable trades?




For short term trading gold is very upredictable IMHO.   The nymex rose US$19 overnight which goes against our theory Solomon.  Shorts may be running for cover as US$ index failing to break overhead resistance.  Anyway I have started to correlate the figures.


----------



## solomon

explod said:


> For short term trading gold is very upredictable IMHO.   The nymex rose US$19 overnight which goes against our theory Solomon.  Shorts may be running for cover as US$ index failing to break overhead resistance.  Anyway I have started to correlate the figures.




I still would have made money buying just after the NY close and selling just before the NY open.

I guess the pattern I'm seeing is that the price often swings wildly down in the US and when it is up it is more of a gradual sustained rise and more often than not the price creeps up from just after the NY close to just before the NY open. 

If I gain confidence in this trade I really have no idea how to actually trade it, historically I have just held a portfolio of shares with comsec, and I've been 100% in gold miners for the last few weeks . 

So any advice as to how I trade this pattern would be appreciated. Do I need to open a CFD account, or is there another way.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> For short term trading gold is very upredictable IMHO.   The nymex rose US$19 overnight which goes against our theory Solomon.  Shorts may be running for cover as US$ index failing to break overhead resistance.  Anyway I have started to correlate the figures.




Explod,

the manipulators are back run for the hills!  

or is it that thing called a correction???


----------



## solomon

Definitely would have been better off being out of the US market last night.


----------



## explod

Posted on 3rd May




explod said:


> There is and old saying that goes something like this.  "A truly strong bull will buck the weak players off at every turn".   That fact that there is nervousness out there indicates something is afoot.
> 
> We could see quite a fall to push the stops on gold but the fundamentals of money losing value and gold holding its tangible value are very solidly in place.  Unless the financial system can play the game back to real value, gold must continue to rise.  Physical gold is scarce because the smart money has been accumulating.
> 
> cheers explod.






> >Apocalypto< Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Explod,
> 
> the manipulators are back run for the hills!
> 
> or is it that thing called a correction???




Pleased for the alert Apocalypto.   No just keep walking steadily up the hill.  Gold is a winner, recent uptrend channel well in place.   And yes they always sell off after a build up when the audience is on the toes.   Could not have the sheeple pondering the strength of gold over the weekend, could we now.

But I could be wrong.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Posted on 3rd May
> Pleased for the alert Apocalypto.   No just keep walking steadily up the hill.  Gold is a winner, recent uptrend channel well in place.   And yes they always sell off after a build up when the audience is on the toes.   Could not have the sheeple pondering the strength of gold over the weekend, could we now.
> 
> But I could be wrong.




long term up medium term up. short term coming off. 

that's expected as eur/usd  aud/usd cable all in the same boat after the strong trend they have put in.

as much as I wanted to be 100% sure the usd was going to fly lower on friday at 3pm. the NFP was on and that bugger can change trends.

IMO i don't think the trend up is over. this is the first real correction to come along. 

on the posted chart you can see the lines on resistance they enforce a normal trend up. Gold now has started to turn to a creeping trend. (not 100% confirmed yet) I am looking at 945 to 935 as a target area of the correction. 

see were it gets to and look for a higher low to double bottom to confirm the trend continuation back to the highs.

I am still bullish Gold right now.

like u said we can always be wrong.

*cant add the chart right now keeps on failing.....*


----------



## Trevor_S

Thought this was an interesting enough read to post here

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124414646645386355.html



> To say this metal is volatile is an understatement. Since the start of 2008, the price of gold has swung between $1000 and around $700 (it's currently at $965). This is a safe haven? When the stock market does this, it's on the front page.






> And while U.S. and other Western investors are jumping aboard the golden caravan, many in Asia -- who rode it all the way from $260 an ounce -- are quietly disembarking. The World Gold Council, an industry body, reports that Asian investors were actually net sellers during the first quarter, while westerners bought heavily and sent prices soaring.




I am sure some of you will take umbrage with the article, if you do, take it up with the author, not the messenger


----------



## explod

Trevor_S said:


> Thought this was an interesting enough read to post here
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124414646645386355.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am sure some of you will take umbrage with the article, if you do, take it up with the author, not the messenger




The author is correct, day after day it is obvious that the Asian market is selling down.  They too are trying to prop the $US to ensure a market for their goods.   The selling however is met with huge investor buying that is why it continues to rise and the lows of the up channel in the gold price are gradually going higher.  

For gold have a look at the 10 year chart on Kitco and it is obvious in the bigger picture.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> long term up medium term up. short term coming off.
> 
> that's expected as eur/usd  aud/usd cable all in the same boat after the strong trend they have put in.
> 
> as much as I wanted to be 100% sure the usd was going to fly lower on friday at 3pm. the NFP was on and that bugger can change trends.
> 
> IMO i don't think the trend up is over. this is the first real correction to come along.
> 
> on the posted chart you can see the lines on resistance they enforce a normal trend up. Gold now has started to turn to a creeping trend. (not 100% confirmed yet) I am looking at 945 to 935 as a target area of the correction.
> 
> see were it gets to and look for a higher low to double bottom to confirm the trend continuation back to the highs.
> 
> I am still bullish Gold right now.
> 
> like u said we can always be wrong.
> 
> *cant add the chart right now keeps on failing.....*




here's the chart


----------



## weatherbill

Something big is gonna have to happen to break into some real gains on gold, like banks breaking ranks and dumping paper.

If gold breaks 1000 usd, they wil start selling some and depress the price.

it will just be a yo yo till something catastrophic  happens


----------



## Uncle Festivus

They can only put lipstick on a pig for so long before it becomes obvious to all - US banking system is insolvent, and the US government is in hock to the tune of *$12Trillion* trying to re-float it. At the moment they are 'floating' due to accounting standards changes, but are still losing big time on the underlying loans ie property prices are down 26% yoy, and more resets to come at higher rates. The fly in the ointment is the *10 year treasuries yield* - if they are going to continue to print IOU's then they want to give a better risk premium to those still keeping the USS Debtship afloat.

My long term ascending wedge (with the cappers always busy preventing a break out through $1k?) is still in place and could possibly not resolve til 2010 sometime (a double dip depression??), but if there is a break out then it will be spectacular, but would also mean the $US is finished. But in this climate nothing is predictable??

The BDI also just took a dive after a steady uptrend - Japanese exports still tanking....come on China


----------



## moXJO

My gold bug/uberbear senses are tingling again, time for another look at gold.


----------



## derty

The bullish sentiments for gold make sense to me and I have dipped my toe into the waters. 

My problem isn't that we are going to see a leap in the POG in USD. It is that I'm uncertain that we will see any real appreciation in the POG in AUD. It seems recently that as the AUD is percieved as a strong currency in comparison to the USD that as soon as their is any weakness in the USD people seem to flee to gold and AUD. Also due to Australia not undergoing quantitative easing we shouldn't see the level of inflationary pressure that will be occurring in the US further strengthening the AUD. 

Does that make sense, and if so are most of the comments here purely w.r.t. the POG in USD or do you believe that we will be seeing a substantial rise in the AUD POG too?


----------



## haunting

Try this chart and see if you can detect any sort of pattern. DXY vs XAU. Which comes first? Gold drops first or US$ rises first? Which is a captive/derivative of the other?


----------



## explod

> derty Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> The bullish sentiments for gold make sense to me and I have dipped my toe into the waters.
> 
> My problem isn't that we are going to see a leap in the POG in USD. It is that I'm uncertain that we will see any real appreciation in the POG in AUD. It seems recently that as the AUD is percieved as a strong currency in comparison to the USD that as soon as their is any weakness in the USD people seem to flee to gold and AUD. Also due to Australia not undergoing quantitative easing we shouldn't see the level of inflationary pressure that will be occurring in the US further strengthening the AUD




Not so long back Aus gold price reached 1500, when currencies fall there is a general appreciation of gold against them all.  If the price explodes up as some a saying on fundamentals then it will make little difference IMHO

Posted this on 30th May last



explod said:


> Over the last year or so a lot of posters have expressed frustration that as our dollar rises it takes the shine off the Aussie gold price.  Well the Aussie dollar has continued to gain in the last 24 hours and with that our own gold price has gone up AUS$24   Silver which is my main long term play even more so.
> 
> 
> Cheers explod


----------



## explod

So are we at a turning point?  the G8 jawbone was sure to make the mighty dollar rally, which it did, and normally keeps it up for a few days at least.  The movements today would indicate it may have turned a bit earlier this time, we await with interest.

With the crap being served up by Bloomberg and Co. you can be sure the pressure cooker is getting pretty hot.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> So are we at a turning point?  the G8 jawbone was sure to make the mighty dollar rally, which it did, and normally keeps it up for a few days at least.  The movements today would indicate it may have turned a bit earlier this time, we await with interest.




I think the current Summit (China, Russia, India, Brazil) is having a negative effect on the USD, considering there will be talk of a new reserve currency (of which this meeting will be highly unlikely to solve any problems or develop any new thesis).  

Following, I think the USD will continue to rally in the short-term, which means IMVHO of course, gold has to go lower before it can go higher.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> I think the current Summit (China, Russia, India, Brazil) is having a negative effect on the USD, considering there will be talk of a new reserve currency (of which this meeting will be highly unlikely to solve any problems or develop any new thesis).
> 
> Following, I think the USD will continue to rally in the short-term, which means IMVHO of course, gold has to go lower before it can go higher.




Possibly.  I think it more likely, that what they are saying may not be what they are doing, but the message buys them time to unload the toxic dollars they have onto others.  With the chorus so great a behind the scenes rush for the door must be suspect.  The US dollar is on the way down as we speak but fear by the sheeple will hold it up yet some.

We will soon see I feel.  And also IMVHO


----------



## strategist

*GOLD*

H4 graph
   Gold is being traded below level 944 (below the neckline of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure), what speaks in favor of getting to target level 903 in nearest future (within the “a-a+” uptrend). Resistance is found at level 944 once again.








Daily graph
   Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line), gold eventually formed up a “double top” trend-turning figure at H4 graph (denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967. Such an event is a very important signal for “B-B+” daily trend’s turn. I’m expecting its lower bound to be broken shortly and, if gold goes under the level 945 (under the “B” trend line), the uptrend will be changed to downtrend and gold will set the target of lowering to support level 903.







Monthly graph


----------



## explod

*Re: GOLD*

Gold in fact bounced off support at 925 on the 15th.   A bottom uptrend channel which was confirmed in January this year and began with the dip in October 08. 

With the USIndex again looking on the weak side I don't buy your analysis. It appears as a simple head and shoulders formation playing out but if you look back over the last six years they have mostly failed. IMHO


----------



## Tradesurfer

I've been watching the weekly chart for a while waiting to either enter long or go short.  Looks like we may be re-testing the uptrend line or bottom of the triangle. If it violates I may go short and put my stop back above the trendline to keep losses small.

If it doesn't violate to the downside, before going long I would wait for it to breakout above the top line resistance back above the old 1000.44 high and offcourse put a stop a little below what would now be support.

Stay tuned as this is on my watchlist.

FYI- Chart Capture is of the US Market Gold ETF symbol:GLD which tracks the price of gold. If Gold itself were at $1000, then GLD would be at $100.

cheers

Derek


----------



## explod

Thanks for the chart Tradesurfer, it does spell the situation out well.  As has been the dominant, the US$ index will be the key to the situation.

The Dow is looking a bit weak the last few days and as Uncle Festivus pointed out last week the candles have been putting the tails up.  A drop in the Dow will see a flight to the US$ so a good correction down may well occur before this bull takes off again.  But if gold holds the bottom up channel just maybe we will be away.

Interesting times.


----------



## explod

Just thought the following from Chuck Butler's report from yesterday would be of interest.   And as well the Minesite page reckons gold will make a big move up either next week or early the following:    anyway here's Chuck...



> Did you hear about the Gold vending machine in Germany? I saw this yesterday morning, and thought it to be a hoax... Then someone in the office brought me a print out of a story in the U.K. Telegraph... OK, so maybe it's not a hoax... Any way... Here's the skinny... In Germany, they've come up with a vending machine that can update prices of Gold every few minutes, and... Dispense 1 gram Gold wafers, 10 gram Gold bars, or coins... There's about a 30% increase in the market price! WOW! Imagine that, you need some Gold in your pocket just for GP, and you simply walk up to a vending machine and buy some, as simple as getting that Zero bar, or Snickers!
> 
> OK... What gives a guy this kind of idea to make a vending machine that disperses Gold? It's all about taking advantage of the times, folks... I may have told you this in the Pfennig before, I don't recall, but I use it in my presentation for Gold... Investment in Gold increased 427% last year... To put it into Tonnes of Gold, retail investment purchases of Gold reached approximately 108 Tonnes of Gold in 2008, up from 36 Tonnes in 2007, and 28 Tonnes in 2006!
> 
> I was talking with the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, who, by the way scored a goal from about 30 yards out in his soccer match the other day... Ty Keough, our one-time national team player, and long time pro, was quite impressed, and that says a lot, because Ty has seen some soccer in his years... You may know Ty or heard of him... But do you know his dad? His dad is a soccer legend, playing on the U.S. national team that beat Great Briton in the World Cup in the 50's, and then went on to be the winningest college coach, with multiple national championships at St. Louis University...
> 
> Oh, I digress, there, I'm so sorry... But once I got talking about soccer, of which I played a ton of in my youth, I just started typing... UGH! Any way, I was talking to the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, the other day, and Frank mentioned that he was concerned that Gold could be the next bubble... I assured him that I didn't see it that way, not until my neighbors are asking if they can buy Gold at $1,200 oz! (I tried to get them to buy it at $800 oz, to no avail!)


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Just thought the following from Chuck Butler's report from yesterday would be of interest.   And as well the Minesite page reckons gold will make a big move up either next week or early the following:    anyway here's Chuck...




Cheers explod

Notice Chuck doesn't have a handle on the superlatives. -> winningest
But hey Kerry Packer was a dyslexic and the richest man in the country, so it's no pre-requisite for a proffering a view.

A new trend though no doubt!


----------



## Nyden

Haven't the charts, analysis, opinions, thoughts, and the stars been indicating a big move up, each and every week, for the past few months now? :

Just seems as though those that follow gold are always spouting for some big move which never seems to come. Yet, no matter what seems to happen in the world markets, in sentiment, and in the economy - gold doesn't seem to want to break $1000 again. How can any of you ignore that? How can so many people place such *blind faith* in a blooming unproductive yellow rock! It boggles the mind, and I despite how hard I try - I just cannot understand it. Then again, I don't understand those bible nuts either :

As horrible as it sounds, I really would just burst into laughter if gold were only at $300 in 2 years time


----------



## GumbyLearner

Nyden said:


> Haven't the charts, analysis, opinions, thoughts, and the stars been indicating a big move up, each and every week, for the past few months now? :
> 
> Just seems as though those that follow gold are always spouting for some big move which never seems to come. Yet, no matter what seems to happen in the world markets, in sentiment, and in the economy - gold doesn't seem to want to break $1000 again. How can any of you ignore that? How can so many people place such *blind faith* in a blooming unproductive yellow rock!
> 
> As horrible as it sounds, I really would just burst into laughter if gold were only at $300 in 2 years time




Yeah gold should have smashed like oil and every other commod. Oil was $30 bucks a barrel a few months ago.

thankyou
daytrader


----------



## Nyden

GumbyLearner said:


> Yeah gold should have smashed like oil and every other commod. Oil was $30 bucks a barrel a few months ago.
> 
> thankyou
> daytrader




Yes, oil was irrationally sold down. However, as oil, and all other commodities are *productive*; it only takes a whiff of a recovery, or even the _potential_ for recovery to completely ignite those markets. As we're seeing now.

Gold just may be smashed down as well; perhaps not in the same drastic fashion as everything else we've seen - but what do you really think is going to happen when the world recovers, and gold loses its luster as a dooms-day hedge?

The reason, or excuse for holding gold seems to be ever-changing in certain circles as well, and the can-hoarding gold nuts all seem to lap it all up, without any doubt whatsoever. First, it was an "insurance policy" - for when the entire financial system collapses (when is that happening, by the way?). Second, it was a hedge against a guaranteed-to-collapse USD (how'd that go fellas?) And now, of course, it's a hedge against the imminent hyperinflation the world will face any day now.


To be fair, I don't think there's anything wrong with having a little gold exposure in a balanced portfolio. However, what seems to illustrate my point of loony blind-faithed gold bugs, is how many people seem to have most of their money, and *all* of their portfolio in gold, or gold stocks! What if gold doesn't skyrocket - is that a question that's even considered? Or is it pushed into the back of the mind by the seemingly endless supply of gold-supporting articles about the end of the world?


----------



## GumbyLearner

Nyden said:


> Yes, oil was irrationally sold down. However, as oil, and all other commodities are *productive*; it only takes a whiff of a recovery, or even the _potential_ for recovery to completely ignite those markets. As we're seeing now.
> 
> Gold just may be smashed down as well; perhaps not in the same drastic fashion as everything else we've seen - but what do you really think is going to happen when the world recovers, and gold loses its luster as a dooms-day hedge?
> 
> The reason, or excuse for holding gold seems to be ever-changing in certain circles as well, and the can-hoarding gold nuts all seem to lap it all up, without any doubt whatsoever. First, it was an "insurance policy" - for when the entire financial system collapses (when is that happening, by the way?). Second, it was a hedge against a guaranteed-to-collapse USD (how'd that go fellas?) And now, of course, it's a hedge against the imminent hyperinflation the world will face any day now.
> 
> 
> To be fair, I don't think there's anything wrong with having a little gold exposure in a balanced portfolio. However, what seems to illustrate my point of loony blind-faithed gold bugs, is how many people seem to have most of their money, and *all* of their portfolio in gold, or gold stocks! What if gold doesn't skyrocket - is that a question that's even considered? Or is it pushed into the back of the mind by the seemingly endless supply of gold-supporting articles about the end of the world?




CDS's, CDO's, Magical Mystery Tour financial instruments, Bank Bailouts, Nationalization or Semi-Nationalization of banks etc.. It really depends who you believe...

If I was to hold physical in a bullion bank or shares in a gold-producer and they threw this **** at me, without knowing whose on the end of it, fair enough., I wouldn't buy bullion. But quantitative easing is certainly something that gives me no comfort.

It's certainly not spontaneous or immediate at this juncture in time but certainly a script that will be played out in the future. JMO

So as a portfolio position I think gold and other precious metals are essential in this market. It's simply impossible to maintain the status-quo in this over-inflated, financially anabolic inflated (down-the-road) environment. To believe otherwise is a fallacy. 

Sure the IMF may dump a heavy amount of their reserves, but who buys them will be stronger for longer!  IMHO 

If you believe for one minute that inflation is not a monetary event, you will massacred in this market 5 years from now. Just quote me on this 5 years from now. Seriously just quote me on it!

DYOR


----------



## GumbyLearner

The nature of the social contract whether you go back all the way to Hammurabi or the centuries old (recent in modern times) development of the English common law, requires that someone pays for goods with VALUE. 

What concerns me and should concern everyone else is that throughout history someone must part with something valuable in order to conduct a fair exchange.

The current practices of government and central banks can *only*
diminish the value of the bargaining power of the unit they decide to trade in. If they decide to bargain in commodities, then of course, the value of the resource is calculated at the point of transaction. But I'm 100% certain that there will be plenty of apprehensive parties willing to take on currencies that have been replicated beyond *common* comprehension, in order to settle their agreements. That*'s* business!


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Yes, oil was irrationally sold down. However, as oil, and all other commodities are *productive*; it only takes a whiff of a recovery, or even the _potential_ for recovery to completely ignite those markets. As we're seeing now.
> 
> Gold just may be smashed down as well; perhaps not in the same drastic fashion as everything else we've seen - but what do you really think is going to happen when the world recovers, and gold loses its luster as a dooms-day hedge?
> 
> The reason, or excuse for holding gold seems to be ever-changing in certain circles as well, and the can-hoarding gold nuts all seem to lap it all up, without any doubt whatsoever. First, it was an "insurance policy" - for when the entire financial system collapses (when is that happening, by the way?). Second, it was a hedge against a guaranteed-to-collapse USD (how'd that go fellas?) And now, of course, it's a hedge against the imminent hyperinflation the world will face any day now.
> 
> 
> To be fair, I don't think there's anything wrong with having a little gold exposure in a balanced portfolio. However, what seems to illustrate my point of loony blind-faithed gold bugs, is how many people seem to have most of their money, and *all* of their portfolio in gold, or gold stocks! What if gold doesn't skyrocket - is that a question that's even considered? Or is it pushed into the back of the mind by the seemingly endless supply of gold-supporting articles about the end of the world?




If gold was to lose its lustre and fall, like any other trade one would be out of it.  Remember we do adhere to trailing stops my friend.   Gold is a form of monetary exchange wether you like it or not, and to be frank is held by the banks of the world as a hedge and as insurance.  As money loses value gold goes up and is the very reason it has gone up some 300% odd since 2002.  And as debt levels of governments and banks continue to increase it has to, by supply and demand continue to go up steadily more.   Yes the 1000 is taking a bit to crack but that is because the US is pretending there is still value in their dollar.  If you follow the business news properly that is wearing thin.

So patience my son, it will surpass the 1000 in due course, and as it passed the 100 mark back in the 70s, away from two figures, it will never return to the three figures again either.

My self and most other gold bugs have other investments too.  I still have half my portfolio in good property, and yes infltion is showing signs of happening which will push up my particular property as well.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> If gold was to lose its lustre and fall, like any other trade one would be out of it.  Remember we do adhere to trailing stops my friend.   Gold is a form of monetary exchange wether you like it or not, and to be frank is held by the banks of the world as a hedge and as insurance.  As money loses value gold goes up and is the very reason it has gone up some 300% odd since 2002.  And as debt levels of governments and banks continue to increase it has to, by supply and demand continue to go up steadily more.   Yes the 1000 is taking a bit to crack but that is because the US is pretending there is still value in their dollar.  If you follow the business news properly that is wearing thin.
> 
> So patience my son, it will surpass the 1000 in due course, and as it passed the 100 mark back in the 70s, away from two figures, it will never return to the three figures again either.
> 
> My self and most other gold bugs have other investments too.  I still have half my portfolio in good property, and yes infltion is showing signs of happening which will push up my particular property as well.




Logically, in this kind of environment, absolutely no doubt.


----------



## MRC & Co

Haven't we seen signs of a deflationary situation now Explod if you simply look at the statistics?

If the USD is ever replaced as the reserve currency and the new basket (perhaps set by the IMF) does not include a large portion of gold, then I can see a situation whereby gold will never perform to what is expected.  The correlation between USD and Gold may just perhaps, break down?

Just some thoughts.


----------



## GumbyLearner

MRC & Co said:


> Haven't we seen signs of a deflationary situation now Explod if you simply look at the statistics?
> 
> If the USD is ever replaced as the reserve currency and the new basket (perhaps set by the IMF) does not include a large portion of gold, then I can see a situation whereby gold will never perform to what is expected.  The correlation between USD and Gold may just perhaps, break down?
> 
> Just some thoughts.




Fair call MRC and I certainly don't want to come across as a condescending prick but what would it be replaced with? Corn, wheat, sorgum, cotton, wool.. they are all declining yields mate. So what else oil or gas ? Or maybe other non-precious metals?

It really doesn't matter, the reality of economic downturn is NOW! Sure people could argue about places to more safely park your cash. But then you have exploration, procurement, production and geo-political costs that are not factored in.

Gold stocks are a great place in Australia at least for the short to medium term to place your savings. Even better if you can buy physical.

The commercial network noise is just atmospheric hyperbole at the moment IMO!

DYOR


----------



## knocker

down lol


----------



## MRC & Co

GumbyLearner said:


> Fair call MRC and I certainly don't want to come across as a condescending prick but what would it be replaced with? Corn, wheat, sorgum, cotton, wool.. they are all declining yields mate. So what else oil or gas ? Or maybe other non-precious metals?
> 
> It really doesn't matter, the reality of economic downturn is NOW!




Exactly, I am unsure what it will be replaced with at this point, just pointing out risks to the gold hypothesis for long-term holders.  It is obviously a situation that will have to be tracked and of course in the change-over period if there was to be one, could see a temporary gold explosion for those astute enough to cover on such a situation.  

The reality of an economic downturn is now, but is perhaps deflation once again a bigger concern than inflation?  

FWIW, I recently closed out my gold long I had been holding since around 850s.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Exactly, I am unsure what it will be replaced with at this point, just pointing out risks to the gold hypothesis for long-term holders.  It is obviously a situation that will have to be tracked and of course in the change-over period if there was to be one, could see a temporary gold explosion for those astute enough to cover on such a situation.
> 
> The reality of an economic downturn is now, but is perhaps deflation once again a bigger concern than inflation?
> 
> FWIW, I recently closed out my gold long I had been holding since around 850s.




Inflation has many fronts, there are goods, services, property and the financial sectors, all different in thier own aspects but of course join up in flationary senses at times.   We have had huge deflation in stocks across the world and also with interest rates.   With gold we are talking about the value base of money itself.  Very low interest rates are not having the intended expectation, real money for business or between banks has become very difficult.  In the last few weeks the yeilds oferred for bonds have not been suffcient to draw money in.  So the Fed as one example are literally buying them with thier own paper money.  This cannot continue much longer, they are eating themselves up, so the word is out that yields must rise to attract the cash.  The same with interest rates, they must go up before banks will lend.   There is much more to the story than this but it is these basic fundamentals that are leading back to inflation in the money area.   Gold is very much a part of the money area, and that is because of historic sentiment and perceptions that it at least keeps pace with real value, paper money does not.   Another aspect is that gold is but a very small part (or percentage)of the entire monetary system.   As you read some posts back the demand in tonnage for gold is unprecedented, just a plain fact.   The IMF's 400 tonnes is less than a third of the demand in the last 12 months.   Interestingly the US senate's decision to allow the IMF to sell that 400 tonnes made no difference to the gold price, I think it was already factored in.  It perhaps did stop gold from going higher as expected this morning but that is all, a bullish sign indeed.

For me the gold I have provides some confort from the current ravages of the finacial position at the moment.   Each decision is for the self and I know that gold is going to go up a lot more, not on any whim but on many years of research for the benefit of my family.

Cheers and a goodweekend to all.

explod


----------



## haunting

Gold is an accepted universal storage of value, I think no one will deny this. The issue here is how much is its value worth? Currently if you measure it against the US$, it is worth about 940. Is US$940 a good reflection of gold's value? 

It depends. If I am holding a lot of gold bought when it was selling at about US$300, I would tell you it is worth a further 300% taking it to about 2800. Why? And how? Well, I have in my hand a solid proof - my hoard of gold and I can show you if I were to sell it in the open market I can fetch about US$900 easy and give me a return of 300%. Since I have proven it is possible to make 300% back when I bought this gold, there is no reason to argue against this point that its value in time will increase by a further 300%. This is a perfectly logical and sensible argument.

But let's think a little further, back when gold was fetching US$300, the US$ was worth a lot more than the current US$ due to inflation. Moving into the future where gold were to gain a further 300% measured in terms of US$, how much does a US$ worth by then?

The trouble here seems to be I am trying to argue for gold's value against a moving target, ie, the "value" of US$. Of course I can further measure the US$ or gold against some other substance of value such as oil, silver, etc... still it doesn't seem to make much sense because in my eyes, my gold, regardless of what I use to measure it against, will always worth more than what others or the market is willing to pay.

So which comes first? Do you mark to market or do you adhere to an invisible absolute value for gold?

Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder. So is gold. Subject to what others are willing to pay for it, it may worth US$3000 or it may go back to its low of US$300... I don't know. But as long as I refuse to sell at any price, it is priceless, and I won't care what others are saying.
~~~~~~~
Next, the US$ and gold standard. One of the major reasons gold standard is abolished is because the rule keeper decided to break the rules because it could no longer afford or keep the "value" of the currency it promised... because it was broke. When the US found out the rest of the world did not believe the US$ really worth the amount of gold it claimed to represent, due to the abuse of of power by the US$ safe-keeper (who else?), they did the right thing for themselves and passed on the crap to the rest of the world who agreed to go along with them initially. They abandoned the gold standard and the rest of the world got the shaft.

They did it back then and they are doing it now. Due to their self serving and selfish attitude. Still remember the famous "deficits don't matter" utterance? Right now QE is another perverse form of "deficits don't matter"... and guess what the rest of the world is telling the Yanks?

"Up you!". That is exactly what the BRIC are trying and are doing! They are trying hard to stop being screwed yet one more time. No more free lunch for the Yanks and the US$.

Right now they can't actually reduce and remove the hegemony of the US$ because like it or not, it is still the reserve currency. The world of trades needs a universal medium of exchange. Gold? Too rigid and too disadvantageous to those who don't hold a large cache of gold (China for eg), so gold will probably not be allowed to get back into the reserve currency valuation method because if it does, it has the effect of yet again letting the USA getting away with their irresponsibility, assuming they still hold their hoard of gold. I doubt if the BRIC will let that happen.

It will take at least 2 years to shrink the influence of the US$ in the current global financial system according to some experts. Before then, the US$ will be "kept" at a certain value so it won't cause unnecessary problem to the rest of the global currencies and their respective issuing economy - EUR/EU and Yen/Japan for example because the "issuer" of these currencies are themselves captives of the vagaries of the US$ volatility. If their currency goes up too much against the US$, the competitiveness of their exports will suffer. If it is too low, the other equally sensitive currency will bear the brunt of shifting speculation...

So the best solution? Keep the US$ at a narrow range, probably at the current level and until the global economy begins to actually recover, the US$  probably won't be going any where in a hurry.

That goes for gold too.

ps: as for gold's eventual rise to US$10,000, well, never can tell, but based on observation, it seems whenever gold is within reach of its target of US$1000, some invisible hand would be triggered into action, and... gold would be capped at where everyone feels it should be.

At below 1000.

So far, it has tried 4 attempts and failed. May be it will change next week, but I sure won't hold my breath betting it will happen.


----------



## explod

A very insightful post there Haunting,  my best information says 2012 before the crunch will have to hit.   And I too believe they will keep it controlled as long as possible.   I still think they will let it have a bit of a run up to 1200 to 1500 to give them steam to knock it back down again.  They want audience attention to then stamp it out.    The wall of worry is a key.   But in the very long run gold will have its steady share of gain against the ever diluting dollars IMHO.  

ps: And for some time when euphoria really hits that will translate to all currencies.   Getting out at the right time will be the trick for real gain.

Interesting times indeed.


----------



## Gundini

Nyden said:


> Haven't the charts, analysis, opinions, thoughts, and the stars been indicating a big move up, each and every week, for the past few months now? :
> 
> Just seems as though those that follow gold are always spouting for some big move which never seems to come. Yet, no matter what seems to happen in the world markets, in sentiment, and in the economy - gold doesn't seem to want to break $1000 again. How can any of you ignore that? How can so many people place such *blind faith* in a blooming unproductive yellow rock! It boggles the mind, and I despite how hard I try - I just cannot understand it. Then again, I don't understand those bible nuts either :
> 
> As horrible as it sounds, I really would just burst into laughter if gold were only at $300 in 2 years time




A very interesting post Nyden...

Gold at $300 in 2 years? Maybe! Once everyone works out that it is over priced and rated. But what's the bling worth? $2-3 hundred? For sure...

I really don't think it is blind faith, more like the Gold supporters actually know that the Global Financial System is a massive Ponzi scheme, and the day of reconning is somewhere close... You can't blame them for that.

But, the US is so resilient, they are working on a comprehensive plan to save the world from their regulation/overseeing of their financial system (stuff ups)and instruments. If they can sell this to the average punter, Gold may sure plummet. I will consider selling my position before the spin takes hold.

Who knows, It may actually work!~ But I doubt they will fully implement their stratergies. Maybe just another smoke and mirrors job. 

Check out this link if you are interested:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/washington-moves-to-muzzle-wall-street-3-34257

PS: I don't get the Bible nuts either...


----------



## explod

Gundini said:


> But, the US is so resilient, they are working on a comprehensive plan to save the world from their regulation/overseeing of their financial system (stuff ups)and instruments. If they can sell this to the average punter, Gold may sure plummet. ..





the US debt is so great per capita that you have to be jocking if you think their resilience will save them in any shape.   If you think about the bigger picture their stock market (the Dow) is built on easy money (credit) and that goes back to about 1985.   Thier GDP up till the last count last year was 75% consumption, consumption based on loose lending to the sheeple, only too happy to buy the extra investment home, the boat and the holiday.  If you have studied economics in any fashion you will know the US is stuffed and no miracle will save them from many years of pain.



This also applies to most other western economies and we will not escape the entire wrath in Australia either.

Gold among other tangibles will be one of the few things to save those who have the common sense to be realistic.  IMVHO of course.

PS:  not singling you out in this last comment Gundini, but the comments of some posters worry me at times to think they are investing in this dagerous market with limited economic knowledge.

I do not peddle books or push anyones barrow but two books well worth reading if you really want to know, and web references from the books are invaluable too:  are

"Financial Armageddon, Michael Panzer, Kaplan 2007" and  "Conquer the Crash and prosper,  Robert Prechter Jr.,  Wiley 2002"  the latter dated but the basic fundamentals of large corporates and banks is very good grounding indeed, and what he forsaw turned out to be spot on.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nyden said:


> Yes, oil was irrationally sold down. However, as oil, and all other commodities are *productive*; it only takes a whiff of a recovery, or even the _potential_ for recovery to completely ignite those markets. As we're seeing now.




Oil was sold down because demand vanished - economics 101 - just check the figures for global trade the last year or so, gone off a cliff. Oil is back to break even for producers.

You talking about the 'green shoots, second half' recovery? The one where the US has to find an extra 2 TRILLION paper IOU's to get someone to give to them, or recently, print!



Nyden said:


> Gold just may be smashed down as well; perhaps not in the same drastic fashion as everything else we've seen - but what do you really think is going to happen when the world recovers, and gold loses its luster as a dooms-day hedge?




'when the world recovers'? You mean _if_ the world recovers? The cycle theory is busted, we are at the start of Japanese stagnation on a global scale?
California, the 5th largest economy in the world, is bankrupt! Federal income tax receipts for April were a shocker, creating a net deficit for the first time in several decades!
Unemplyment - the real figures are somewhere around 15%! The Fed are now paying the unemployed $2000 a month benefits trying to prime the economy, as compared to normal benefits of around $500/m! I'm sure they all go out and buy the latest flat screen TV or a second investment property?

Income is falling while debt & unfunded liabilities is rising at an parabolic rate. The real game on Wall St is to get as much of the billions getting handed out before the hole jalopy comes crashing down. One estimate was that $50 billion was going to be 'collateral' wastage!! by scammers and corporate looters! 



Nyden said:


> The reason, or excuse for holding gold seems to be ever-changing in certain circles as well, and the can-hoarding gold nuts all seem to lap it all up, without any doubt whatsoever. First, it was an "insurance policy" - for when the entire financial system collapses (when is that happening, by the way?). Second, it was a hedge against a guaranteed-to-collapse USD (how'd that go fellas?) And now, of course, it's a hedge against the imminent hyperinflation the world will face any day now.




The show aint over yet, not by a long way! The 'insurance policy' is still current and there is a sizable client base taking out new policies every day - ie check the ETF's etc. The US gives the OK for the IMF to sell it's gold - gold barely flinched. 

The USD - China has suddenly gotten a bad case of USD indigestion recently, something to do with someone printing more of them (helicopter Ben has come through with his promise), hence diluting the value of existing USD's??

Bond yields say that creditors want a higher return for the junk now.



Nyden said:


> To be fair, I don't think there's anything wrong with having a little gold exposure in a balanced portfolio. However, what seems to illustrate my point of loony blind-faithed gold bugs, is how many people seem to have most of their money, and *all* of their portfolio in gold, or gold stocks! What if gold doesn't skyrocket - is that a question that's even considered? Or is it pushed into the back of the mind by the seemingly endless supply of gold-supporting articles about the end of the world?




"how many people seem to have most of their money, and *all* of their portfolio in gold, or gold stocks!"
This is interesting? Is this data published by the ASX or someone? Or are you assuming?

PS - just aboout everything the 'gold bugs' have been saying for the last few years has come true - why start to doubt them now? The game continues........


----------



## chrislp

explod said:


> "Financial Armageddon, Michael Panzer, Kaplan 2007" and  "Conquer the Crash and prosper,  Robert Prechter Jr.,  Wiley 2002"  the latter dated but the basic fundamentals of large corporates and banks is very good grounding indeed, and what he forsaw turned out to be spot on.




You may be suprised to know that Prechter's opinion on gold has changed & he thinks that it will go down to $680 now. 

He published a market forecast in May & has repeated all the thoughts in this thread, i.e inflation, debt, money printing but yet it has failed to breach it's high which is why he is bearish on gold.


----------



## explod

chrislp said:


> You may be suprised to know that Prechter's opinion on gold has changed & he thinks that it will go down to $680 now.
> 
> He published a market forecast in May & has repeated all the thoughts in this thread, i.e inflation, debt, money printing but yet it has failed to breach it's high which is why he is bearish on gold.




Yes, Prechter was way out in his timing of the crash too, thought it would be 2003.   The point of my references though is their take on fundamentals and how companies cook the books to shareholders and the community for their own self interest, among a lot of other useful and alternative ways of looking at the markets and financials.

As for the gold price, it is really anyones guess what a market will do in fact.  We can just measure the best for ourselves and invest accordingly.  For me gold has a long way to go yet and maybe a correction down to 680 could occur.  In the long run though paper money as it is being diluted must lose value, tangibles such as land, food, oil, gas, and among other things, gold will and cannot be diluted, those things are in fact becoming more scarce and as a result must go up in value.   It is simple ABC to go that way to at least hold onto ones savings in my humble view.


----------



## haunting

Is the USA still in charge of this world? In military term, a cautious yes if measured by fire power and technologically advanced weaponry. But in terms of fighting a conventional war, as in Afghan, Iraq and in some part of Africa, I don't think so. The most powerful weapon in a conventional warfare is a soldier that is not afraid of dying, the suicide bomber for example. If the threat and fear of death cannot stop such soldier, bullets and bombs will definitely not do.

What about politically? After 8 years of GWB's reign of "shock and awe" warfare and "if you are not with me, then you are against me" kind of global political bullying, I am not sure if the USA is still being looked up, listened to as the most respected nation in this globe - international prestige and respect take a long time to build up and are easy to lose, even for a superpower. If you don't believe this, try some recall or google - in the last few months, how many foreign dignities had been making a beeline to the USA visiting Obama, paying respect and talk politics? On the other hand, in the last few months, how many US top officials had been making a bee line to China - Pelosi, Clinton, TimG, does this observation mean something? 

Economically? Well, you don't need me to point out to you the many posts that are fairly critical on the US economic front, right? The US economy is in trouble and everyone can see that.

But what about the future? What about say after the US economy has "recovered"? Will the USA still be in charge economically?

Do you still believe the global economy will not be able to recover without the US recovering first? In other words, do you believe the global economies are still in the process of decoupling?

Here are some charts and graphs from an Asian bank presenting the argument that as far as Asia is concerned, they have moved on whilst the US+EU economies are still mired in green shoots spotting. 

China for example, is not talking about green shoots, they are actually nursing a slightly "wounded" tree but is still growing strongly, providing shades to her trade partners in the region and elsewhere - Australia for example.

So ask this very important question - does the Australian economy need the US economy to recover first? Does the US consumption engine a key driver for Australian economic growth? If you can leave every other matter aside and just focus on economic matter, the answer is there and is quite obvious.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> PS - just aboout everything the 'gold bugs' have been saying for the last few years has come true - why start to doubt them now? The game continues........




Except the price of gold. :


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Except the price of gold. :




Most other investments have gone down 30 or 40% in the last few years, not gold, energy or property.  Though the old oil took a bit of a hit too.

Cant beat you T. H.,    he he, the old PPP alive and well.

What a waste for my post 2000


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Most other investments have gone down 30 or 40% in the last few years, not gold, energy or property.  Though the old oil took a bit of a hit too.
> 
> Cant beat you T. H.,    he he, the old PPP alive and well.
> 
> What a waste for my post 2000




Nah I don't buy that. The gold bugs are seething that the world hasn't collapsed into a pile of **** and gold isn't at $5000 AUD - $20,000 USD.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah I don't buy that. The gold bugs are seething that the world hasn't collapsed into a pile of **** and gold isn't at $5000 AUD - $20,000 USD.




Nah all right, not yet, the October crash aint nothing to where we are going and yes as in October gold will probably go with it as well, in fact 2000 dow probably does equal 680 gold........for awhile.  We will be prepared this time......maybe

And if you feel like that one should not buy anything.   

And the sh't on my vegie patch does wonders, its a tangible old Son.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> And if you feel like that one should not buy anything.




Nah nah nah!

Quite the opposite. The problem with a love affair with a trading instrument, which gold is just another of many, is that you wastes valuable time & money waiting for it to reward you for your dedication. And happily ignore its misgivings.
We all have a limited amount of time on earth. falling in love with the gold idea is wasting that valuable time. I have said it many a time and had many a barney with the latest bug. It may be going to $300000 but I think equity traders will still outperform gold bugs because they are making money moving with the swings and round-a-bouts and it doesn't exclude getting into gold tomorrow.

What is the opportunity cost of your waiting?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah nah nah!
> 
> Quite the opposite. The problem with a love affair with a trading instrument, which gold is just another of many, is that you wastes valuable time & money waiting for it to reward you for your dedication. And happily ignore its misgivings.
> We all have a limited amount of time on earth. falling in love with the gold idea is wasting that valuable time. I have said it many a time and had many a barney with the latest bug. It may be going to $300000 but I think equity traders will still outperform gold bugs because they are making money moving with the swings and round-a-bouts and it doesn't exclude getting into gold tomorrow.
> 
> What is the opportunity cost of your waiting?




Do agree old pal, equity trading is the best, but its too is time consuming and stressful to an old codger, have been down that track and with a criteria generated computer progam got good results.  Prefer my garden and handyman work and let the long term holdings work for themselves.   Of course one cannot put a value on the arguments and stirrings of the threads and you come at it beautifully T/H.   

Gold is in the blood, my Great Grandfather and his brothers left The good Mother country to chase gold in the 1860's around Avoca (live now at the cemetary at Redbank), in central west Victoria.  Finished up farmers and did well, they had dozens of children between them who helped open up this country and represented in both the great wars.  All means to an end and providence my Son.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah nah nah!
> 
> Quite the opposite. The problem with a love affair with a trading instrument, which gold is just another of many, is that you wastes valuable time & money waiting for it to reward you for your dedication. And happily ignore its misgivings.
> We all have a limited amount of time on earth. falling in love with the gold idea is wasting that valuable time. I have said it many a time and had many a barney with the latest bug. It may be going to $300000 but I think equity traders will still outperform gold bugs because they are making money moving with the swings and round-a-bouts and it doesn't exclude getting into gold tomorrow.
> 
> What is the opportunity cost of your waiting?




well said!


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> In the last few weeks the yeilds oferred for bonds have not been suffcient to draw money in.  So the Fed as one example are literally buying them with thier own paper money.




May want to check the latest bid/cover ratios and foreign participation in US bond auctions.  As reflected in the falling yields.

From my understanding, it's quite the opposite to what you are saying over the last couple weeks.

Though, some pretty big auctions coming up yet.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Do agree old pal, equity trading is the best, but its too is time consuming and stressful to an old codger, have been down that track and with a criteria generated computer progam got good results.  Prefer my garden and handyman work and let the long term holdings work for themselves.   Of course one cannot put a value on the arguments and stirrings of the threads and you come at it beautifully T/H.
> 
> Gold is in the blood, my Great Grandfather and his brothers left The good Mother country to chase gold in the 1860's around Avoca (live now at the cemetary at Redbank), in central west Victoria.  Finished up farmers and did well, they had dozens of children between them who helped open up this country and represented in both the great wars.  All means to an end and providence my Son.




I'm a bit of green-thumb myself explod.

I don't see gold as a waste of time but I do see the fraudulently over-valued derivatives games as a house of cards. 

Notice the media have come out with the "green shoots" argument recently. Well explod I'm sure you would probably agree. You would never want to quantitative ease to much "fertilizer" on that vegie patch.


----------



## explod

Beaten about the ears I have moved into the corner.   The following will be of interest to those believing the mighty US can save the dollar:-



> Dollar Is Dirt, Treasuries Are Toast, AAA Is Gone: Mark Gilbert
> Share | Email | Print | A A A
> 
> Commentary by Mark Gilbert
> 
> 
> 
> May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The odds on the dollar, Treasury bonds and the U.S. government’s AAA grade all heading for the dumpster are shortening.
> 
> While currency forecasting is a mug’s game and bond yields can’t quite decide whether to dive toward deflation or surge in anticipation of inflation, every time I think about that credit rating, I hear what Agent Smith in the “Matrix” movies called “the sound of inevitability.”
> 
> Several policy missteps suggest that investors should stop trusting -- and lending to -- the U.S. government. These include the state’s pressure on Bank of America Corp. to buy Merrill Lynch & Co.; the priority given to Chrysler LLC’s unions over the automaker’s secured creditors; and the freedom that some banks will regain to supersize executive bonuses by giving back part of the government money bolstering their balance sheets.
> 
> Currency markets have been in a weird state of what looks almost like equilibrium for the past couple of months. What’s really going on is something akin to an evenly matched tug of war that fails to move the ribbon tied around the center of the rope, giving the impression of harmony while powerful forces do silent battle until someone slips.
> 
> “All currencies are being debased dramatically by their central banks at extraordinary speeds and so in relative terms it appears there is no currency problem,” Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management said in a research note earlier this month. “In reality, however, paper money is highly vulnerable to a public catalyst that serves to acknowledge it is all merely vapor money.”
> 
> Flesh Wounds
> 
> Why pick on the dollar, though? Well, not necessarily because the U.S. economy is in worse shape than those of the euro area, the U.K. or Japan. The biggest problem is that external investors -- particularly China -- have more skin in the dollar game than in euros, yen or pounds, which makes the U.S. currency the most likely candidate to meet the cleaver in a crisis of confidence about post-crunch government finances.
> 
> China owns about $744 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds in its $2 trillion of




there is more to the article if you want at :  magilbert@bloomberg.net


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Except the price of gold. :




So as a trader you have active shorts on gold? I can see it going back to the high 800's in the short term at least? Always Black Swan insurance eh?

For non followers the big decider that gold has failed would have been it's inability to pass the magic $1k? But it doesn't really have to - even if it just maintains purchasing power relative to everything else (see chart) it will have done it's job? It may not beat an active traders returns but again, it doesn't have to.

It's all relative I guess - I trade & invest. My gold _investing_ portfolio has been positive for each of the last 10 years or so despite the negative returns of the general market - but as of now I only have 1 stock in it - NEM cdi's. Gold has been showing too much correlation with equities for my liking so I'm happy to sit on the sidelines & wait for another opportunity for gold equities, if & when that arises. 

General equities are looking for another excuse to advance higher, but the green shoot brigade - fuelled by little more than hope - look a bit jaded at the moment, so goldies may get taken down with them? Aussie dollar getting a push from the 'second commodities coming' mob looks to have lost a bit of momentum recently? 

Paper money is a huge Ponzi scheme with the USD at the very center. How long will central banks continue to trust The Fed & Treasury to maintain fiscal order & support the USD by buying bonds etc? Check out how much they put out for 'sale' each week - several 10's of BILLIONS!

Though, for the first time in 12 months I bought some (more) physical this week.

Have a look at the MACD on the chart - interesting, considering that it could turn off a base in the high 800's low 900's???


----------



## Uncle Festivus

MRC & Co said:


> May want to check the latest bid/cover ratios and foreign participation in US bond auctions. As reflected in the falling yields.
> 
> From my understanding, it's quite the opposite to what you are saying over the last couple weeks.
> 
> Though, some pretty big auctions coming up yet.




Well I guess you have to wonder who is actually buying the things then? China says 'we no want no more, please, thankyou!'



> BEIJING (AFP) — A decision by China to reduce its US Treasury holdings suggests concern about the US attitude towards its economic woes, Chinese economists were quoted as saying in state media Wednesday.
> The remarks, coming after US data showed a modest decline in Chinese investments in US government bonds, were in contrast to an earlier statement in Beijing which had said the recent sell-off was a routine transaction.
> "China is implying to the US, more or less, that it should adopt a more pragmatic and responsible attitude to maintain the stability of the dollar," He Maochun, a political scientist at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times.
> According to US Treasury data issued Monday, Beijing owned 763.5 billion dollars in US securities in April, down from 767.9 billion dollars in March.
> It was the first month since June 2008 that Beijing failed to purchase more US T-bills.




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5586543/Is-this-the-death-of-the-dollar.html


----------



## MRC & Co

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well I guess you have to wonder who is actually buying the things then? China says 'we no want no more, please, thankyou!'




Yes, you do have to wonder, but it is being done.

Longer-term, I am with you guys, I think the USD still has a lot further to fall to create any sort of trade balance and stimulate domestic production.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> So as a trader you have active shorts on gold? I can see it going back to the high 800's in the short term at least? Always Black Swan insurance eh?




Come on Unc admit it. You are annoyed & frustrated that gold isn't at $3000 and the dow at 3000.


Funny though you bring up Japan, more on that latter.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on Unc admit it. You are annoyed & frustrated that gold isn't at $3000 and the dow at 3000.
> 
> 
> Funny though you bring up Japan, more on that latter.





Dammned hard to knock the bugs off T/H.  This PPP role is a tough call but you do it well

Think Uncle has the handle on it myself, gold support about 880, resistance about 980, looking for some volatility in the currrencies and exhaustion of the jawbone cover.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on Unc admit it. You are annoyed & frustrated that gold isn't at $3000 and the dow at 3000.
> 
> 
> Funny though you bring up Japan, more on that latter.




No, I don't think I'm annoyed or frustrated, learned to de-emotionalise to a certain extent some years ago. Probably surprised that the money shufflers have & can still call the shots, whatever disguise it goes by?

I really think the Fed knows what they are up against, even as far back as the 'contained' announcements some years ago - either that or they don't really have a clue and it's far worse than even an avid gold bug would have dreamt!

It really is an 0 or 1 game coming up pretty soon - they either hold it together or they don't, only the time frame is unknown. So in the meantime gold is still part commodity, part currency. When it becomes solely a currency due to USD liquidation then let the real game begin - tis only a matter of time if you keep a track of the US debt juggernaut?

What's happening with Japan? Another lost decade for the restofus?


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> No, I don't think I'm annoyed or frustrated, learned to de-emotionalise to a certain extent some years ago. Probably surprised that the money shufflers have & can still call the shots, whatever disguise it goes by?
> 
> I really think the Fed knows what they are up against, even as far back as the 'contained' announcements some years ago - either that or they don't really have a clue and it's far worse than even an avid gold bug would have dreamt!
> 
> It really is an 0 or 1 game coming up pretty soon - they either hold it together or they don't, only the time frame is unknown. So in the meantime gold is still part commodity, part currency. When it becomes solely a currency due to USD liquidation then let the real game begin - tis only a matter of time if you keep a track of the US debt juggernaut?



Any way out of it UF?

How can the US get out of such debt and still keep the currency alive? 

Any solution?

Or, do we just all fall into oblivian...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Any way out of it UF?
> 
> How can the US get out of such debt and still keep the currency alive?
> 
> Any solution?
> 
> Or, do we just all fall into oblivian...




I'm not seeing any 'green shoots', but then again I'm just a dumb ass pyjama trader 

US debt = current PLUS UNFUNDED future liabilities  == $100 TRILLION!

Each day get's closer to a full on flood of baby boomer retirees (that's if they can afford to?), not to mention the next round of ARM's reset's, AS WELL AS falling tax income revenue from _increasing _unemployment, and the final nail in the coffin - US consumer indebtedness from decades of OVER consumption on credit from other countries.

Other than that I think they should do fine 

As for Oz, don't get me started on the China scam to save us  using worthless USD's to buy tangable physical assets before time runs out - only a few hundred billion USD's or so left spare in the kitty after the first stimulis goes through the system making mini bubbles everywhere. Do we even want to be paid in USD's?


----------



## Real1ty

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm not seeing any 'green shoots', but then again I'm just a dumb ass pyjama trader




Of course you can't as 'green shoots' can only be viewed when both eyes are open, not just one 

Whether these 'green shoots' take hold or wither and die is the issue.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Real1ty said:


> Of course you can't as 'green shoots' can only be viewed when both eyes are open, not just one
> 
> Whether these 'green shoots' take hold or wither and die is the issue.




True, but what exactly are these green shoots? All I see is lessening worseness & better-than-expected low balled estimates so far, like some weightless moment on a roller coaster maybe, before the next bit.....

I would really like to see some hard evidence of data that is actually continually being revised positively, not just getting less worse - anybody? That is, if anybody actually believes all this data is as good as they make out, and is in fact not substantially worse due to statistical aberrations ie the birth/death estimate joke?
After all, these _are_ Ruthless People with their backs to the wall.....


----------



## Nyden

Uncle Festivus said:


> Oil was sold down because demand vanished - economics 101 - just check the figures for global trade the last year or so, gone off a cliff. Oil is back to break even for producers.
> 
> You talking about the 'green shoots, second half' recovery? The one where the US has to find an extra 2 TRILLION paper IOU's to get someone to give to them, or recently, print!
> 
> 
> 
> 'when the world recovers'? You mean _if_ the world recovers? The cycle theory is busted, we are at the start of Japanese stagnation on a global scale?
> California, the 5th largest economy in the world, is bankrupt! Federal income tax receipts for April were a shocker, creating a net deficit for the first time in several decades!
> Unemplyment - the real figures are somewhere around 15%! The Fed are now paying the unemployed $2000 a month benefits trying to prime the economy, as compared to normal benefits of around $500/m! I'm sure they all go out and buy the latest flat screen TV or a second investment property?
> 
> Income is falling while debt & unfunded liabilities is rising at an parabolic rate. The real game on Wall St is to get as much of the billions getting handed out before the hole jalopy comes crashing down. One estimate was that $50 billion was going to be 'collateral' wastage!! by scammers and corporate looters!
> 
> 
> 
> The show aint over yet, not by a long way! The 'insurance policy' is still current and there is a sizable client base taking out new policies every day - ie check the ETF's etc. The US gives the OK for the IMF to sell it's gold - gold barely flinched.
> 
> The USD - China has suddenly gotten a bad case of USD indigestion recently, something to do with someone printing more of them (helicopter Ben has come through with his promise), hence diluting the value of existing USD's??
> 
> Bond yields say that creditors want a higher return for the junk now.
> 
> 
> 
> "how many people seem to have most of their money, and *all* of their portfolio in gold, or gold stocks!"
> This is interesting? Is this data published by the ASX or someone? Or are you assuming?
> 
> PS - just aboout everything the 'gold bugs' have been saying for the last few years has come true - why start to doubt them now? The game continues........




Hi Uncle,

I must say, I entirely anticipated your snap-defense of gold, you've become a touch predictable! 

Firstly, I wasn't really making reference to green-shoots, but merely the fact that the market has got the idea of a *possible* recovery; and how this belief alone has been enough to spur a fantastic equity recovery - and enforces my opinion of just how quickly productive commodities will recover when the time comes.

No, I do mean *when* the world recovers. I can safely say, with complete certainty - that one way or another, the world as a whole will recover. Individual countries may not, granted - but I honestly know that the world will. Growth is an unfortunate fundamental of life on earth, and an ever-increasing population can *only* lead to an increase in prices. An increase in demand, versus a dwindling supply (as is the case with oil, at least) will result in an increased share price, simple as that. Of course, issues with currency aren't equated for here; but so long as the price of commodities out paces any currency depreciation ... it'll all be good, for our market at least. This probably won't lead to an economic recovery, though - in fact, it might just be a hindrance; but so long as I'm making money; who cares? 

Well, I don't have any data to backup my claim of certain individuals holding all-gold portfolios, but I did state that it was a case of many individuals, not most, or any proportion of substance. It was merely an observation of mine, that I had noticed over on that "Your portfolio" thread, as well as this thread. I'm sure if you sift through the posts here, you'll see a few people mentioning they've sold houses to buy gold, and have nothing but gold stocks and gold holdings. These might not be accurate, but I found it disturbing, none the less.

I encourage any sort of debate Uncle, and I have no issue with individuals investing in gold. In fact, even though I would completely discourage it - I don't even have a problem with people falling in love with their gold, and believing with all of their being that it'll one day skyrocket; why? Because it's really none of my business. I just get frustrated sometimes, is all.

Although, I must say - I was quite pleased to read that explod would sell his holdings if gold began to deteriorate. I confess, explod - I've held a fear for a while that you would end up keeping the stuff until the day you died!


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> Hi Uncle,
> 
> 
> Although, I must say - I was quite pleased to read that explod would sell his holdings if gold began to deteriorate. I confess, explod - I've held a fear for a while that you would end up keeping the stuff until the day you died!





Well now, you will be even more pleased to know that today I sold all of my gold stocks.  I am out.  I will not sell my physical as that is a longer term thing.   The market though is very spooky and last Octobers fall has sounded an alert button even to old Plod.   

The Dow is on the verge of a total collapse in my view and all stocks will take an enormous bath.

Thank you for the concern old son.   Because we know we will be fine.  I feel very sorry for the poor devils that dont'.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Well now, you will be even more pleased to know that today I sold all of my gold stocks.  I am out.  I will not sell my physical as that is a longer term thing.   The market though is very spooky and last Octobers fall has sounded an alert button even to old Plod.
> 
> The Dow is on the verge of a total collapse in my view and all stocks will take an enormous bath.
> 
> Thank you for the concern old son.   Because we know we will be fine.  I feel very sorry for the poor devils that dont'.




You're joshin'


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> You're joshin'




Mostley tounge in cheek as you all know, but never more serious in my life on the last.

We are in for a bath, prontus asorus.

And the gold price tonight, DOWN, the great US dollar UP, the world is crazy man.   Read the posts of Uncle above, dont' peddle or follow him, but his info is spot on in my view.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Mostley tounge in cheek as you all know, but never more serious in my life on the last.
> 
> We are in for a bath, prontus asorus.
> 
> And the gold price tonight, DOWN, the great US dollar UP, the world is crazy man.   Read the posts of Uncle above, dont' peddle or follow him, but his info is spot on in my view.




Yeah Unc, is the ultimate equalizer to derivative traders.
Irreplacable General Market Contrarian no doubt
I know TH is not a bullion fan, but a fantastic trader no doubt.
I'm sticking with patience
Cheers mate


----------



## refined silver

Couldn't have said it better myself:

"All Eyes on The Record $104 Billion Treasury Auctions Tuesday, Wed. and Thurs!  

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31454369

That leaves TODAY for TPTB to slam gold and silver one more time. Failed auctions will cause an abrubt end to the dollar 'rally' and cause gold and silver to reverse.

Always darkest before the dawn. This week precious metals end up. imho."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nyden said:


> No, I do mean *when* the world recovers. I can safely say, with complete certainty - that one way or another, the world as a whole will recover. Individual countries may not, granted - but I honestly know that the world will.




Have you even contemplated that one of those countries that will not recover is the USA?

Waiting, waiting.....bargains to be had soon.... but not in pleb equities...

Glad Gamers repent, it's not too late


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Have you even contemplated that one of those countries that will not recover is the USA?




Yes and have you considered that it could be a positive - one day. Just like Japan the second biggest economy going nowhere for two decades.

It created the biggest boom in the last 30 years for investors, the carry trade.

Are we about to get the next carry trade to push the next bubble/bull?


----------



## sunshineboy

I am sure this year gold will hit $1500 an ounce. Do your research and find it out just like last year.


----------



## Nyden

sunshineboy said:


> I am sure this year gold will hit $1500 an ounce. Do your research and find it out just like last year.




You're *sure*? Well, you've all heard it here first folks, straight from the horses mouth.

I find it somewhat unusual sunshine, what with you being an expert and all - that you have another thread going at the moment, asking why the USD is getting weaker? Especially, since, ironically, in the past 2-3 days it's been getting stronger ...


----------



## explod

Nyden said:


> You're *sure*? Well, you've all heard it here first folks, straight from the horses mouth.
> 
> I find it somewhat unusual sunshine, what with you being an expert and all - that you have another thread going at the moment, asking why the USD is getting weaker? Especially, since, ironically, in the past 2-3 days it's been getting stronger ...




Yep the sheeple are sh.t..ng themselves and converting to the mighty US of A dollar.   Same as last time.

I also reckon when the truth hits the 1500 gold will occur.   The sequence of steps are becoming clearer IMHO, and dont' need to repeat, you've heard them on this space before.


----------



## Gundini

sunshineboy said:


> I am sure this year gold will hit $1500 an ounce. Do your research and find it out just like last year.




Sounds good to me! Are you talking USD or AUD, and can you give me an idea of why you think his will eventuate? 

Or are you spinning our wheels?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes and have you considered that it could be a positive - one day. Just like Japan the second biggest economy going nowhere for two decades.
> 
> It created the biggest boom in the last 30 years for investors, the carry trade.
> 
> Are we about to get the next carry trade to push the next bubble/bull?




One day Peter Costello will be PM, maybe  a lot can happen in the meantime, especially for intra-second nothing-to-something traders 

It was OK while it was just Japan going no where, but now we could have all major economies going no where for a few years at least while they work out that creating debt to stimulate consumption by already indebted consumers is useless.

The carry trade wouldn't have been so well supported if it didn't have somewhere to park those funds, and I content that that played probably the biggest part in all of the global bubbles that have sprung up over those years, even the great China boom. Only this time any carry trade in any currency would be like pushing on a peice of spaghetti because all central banks will be actively trying to inflate their money supplies at the same time, instead of as previously Japan was the sole supplier of excess credit to the world?

The Yen CT was supported by the fact that the holding of such was only temporary while looking to invest into something else with better returns, it was not neccessarily because Yen was intrinsically safer than whatever else. A USD carry trade would look to invest into ????? Hard tangibles like commodities, gold..... 

Carry trades rely on relative yield differentials, so with nearly all major currencies 'supported' by zero bound CB rates, that spread is effectively zero. The next game is into hard physicals to preserve 'wealth' as currencies undergo trasparent QE. The new carry trade for USD's could be into gold, but a carry trade implies that at some stage the trade will be unwound back into the original instrument, but if the original instrument get's trashed in the meantime, what happens then? 

At the moment the paradigm is still to pile into the 'safe haven' of USD's at any sign of risk aversion, but there will come a time when even that strategy will be seriously questioned, although it is still in the interests of all concerned that the show continues on it's precarios way for the Ponzi scheme to continue? At least that's what China is hoping for.

Short everything, even gold stocks 



sunshineboy said:


> I am sure this year gold will hit $1500 an ounce. Do your research and find it out just like last year.




My calcs come out to precisely $3423 & 45 cents, give or take $3000  Whilever GS & MS are still in control it won't get back above $1k any time soon? The proviso is that relative to anything else gold will appreciate.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> The carry trade wouldn't have been so well supported if it didn't have somewhere to park those funds, and *I content that that played probably the biggest part in all of the global bubbles that have sprung up over those *years, even the great China boom.




Yes yes fully agree. But its always amuses me that the only thing the green back can do is completely collapse. The only thing the world can do is fall apart. The only thing that can come from CB games is the end of the world.

You may be right just history isn't on your side.

Interesting times


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes yes fully agree. But its always amuses me that the only thing the green back can do is completely collapse. The only thing the world can do is fall apart. The only thing that can come from CB games is the end of the world.
> 
> You may be right just history isn't on your side.
> 
> Interesting times




Actually history is on my side - all empires eventually collapse under the weight of debt (usually from wars?), only the time frame is evermore condensed due to technology improving information flow.

What is your strategy these days TH? Short & long term ie more than a few minutes


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Actually history is on my side - all empires eventually collapse under the weight of debt (usually from wars?), only the time frame is evermore condensed due to technology improving information flow.
> 
> What is your strategy these days TH? Short & long term ie more than a few minutes




Yes and from war the US makes a great deal as their manufacturing base is in that area.  But have they in that facit also bitten off more than they can chew??   

Hui up strong the last two days, is gold perhaps going to hold and rise from here??.   Dollar up again too.


----------



## surfziggy

Going back to Kennas comment:

"Any way out of it UF?

How can the US get out of such debt and still keep the currency alive?"

...inflation and dollar/pound devaluation

Assuming that the same factors don't affect every other nation - in which case we will all be on a par.

P.S. I don't think we're headed for the end of the world...yet


----------



## Real1ty

surfziggy said:


> P.S. I don't think we're headed for the end of the world...yet




Phew,
I have a few things planned for this weekend and it would be a shame to have them spoiled 

Would it be too much trouble to ask you to let me know when you do think it is coming, as i can then shift a few things around.

Thanks in advance


----------



## surfziggy

Are you mistaking me for http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus ?


----------



## gray.nomad

*GOLD *

Hi all,

What is the concensus (or otherwise) on gold, (real gold bars in the bank fault or under the bed).
Lots of opinions by "experts" that it will increase considerably once inflation sets in. (Which may happen due to the increase in money supply).
At present, it wanders about between $750 and $1000 US per once. Some predict it will increase to $2000.

Best regards
GN


----------



## Sean K

Just thinking, and maybe completely incorrectly and unrealistically, if the USD is replaced as the world currency, as China is arguing, then will gold then be priced in that currency, whatever it is. If so, how will this effect the price of gold? Maybe a bit out of left field.


----------



## refined silver

kennas said:


> Just thinking, and maybe completely incorrectly and unrealistically, if the USD is replaced as the world currency, as China is arguing, then will gold then be priced in that currency, whatever it is. If so, how will this effect the price of gold? Maybe a bit out of left field.




The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX. By then gold will be much much higher. 

A new world currency would probably need some gold backing as every other world currency has had in the past - Portugese real`1600s, GB pound (1700s-1930s) and USD in 1944 at Bretton Woods when it became world reserve currency.


----------



## explod

refined silver said:


> The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX. By then gold will be much much higher.
> 
> A new world currency would probably need some gold backing as every other world currency has had in the past - Portugese real`1600s, GB pound (1700s-1930s) and USD in 1944 at Bretton Woods when it became world reserve currency.




And the US will be wanting it to contract as much as possible as that will decrease the actual value of their world debts.  And debts will come to considerable attention in the next few week, California is now absolutely insolvent now and big isssues thier have to be delt with in the next week or so. China is particularly concerned of late at their massive holdings of US treasuries.  My sources indicate that they are accumulating gold, with treasuries, in any way they can without pushing the price up too much.  Wonder if they were the buyer of the IMF 400 tonnes??

The Asis Times (online) is well worth a scan every few days, some good links to chinese govt' thinking and actions.  Very anti US., but maybe for good reason eh.

Notice US dollar down a fair bit overnight but gold held to sideways.  Wonder at how long this will continue.  Maybe interesting next week.  But of course, as T/H will testify, I say that nearly every week.

cheers explod.

Will be away for the next week so keep up the good work you bugs, BUGS, pests??   yes yes yes yes no  not till tomorrow


----------



## Sean K

refined silver said:


> The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX. By then gold will be much much higher.



And then it crashes?


----------



## MRC & Co

refined silver said:


> The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX.




See I disagree.

I think a slow gradual decline of the USD will be beneficial to the US economy.

I think the danger is a run on the USD and US Treasuries and this is the critical point all the gold bugs are constantly looking for.  

However, with the recent positive bond auctions, I don't think the time is going to be anytime soon now.


----------



## Sean K

MRC & Co said:


> See I disagree.
> 
> I think a slow gradual decline of the USD will be beneficial to the US economy.



That will be the best thing for everyone won't it? An orderly exit from USD into the ANZAC dollar? Perhaps the ZAC can actually made of pure gold to satisfy the bugs.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

MRC & Co said:


> I think the danger is a run on the USD and US Treasuries and this is the critical point all the gold bugs are constantly looking for.
> 
> However, with the recent positive bond auctions, I don't think the time is going to be anytime soon now.




You would buy US dollars?? Straight from the printing press?



> California's budgetary, economic and political problems Thursday landed the Golden State's credit a ratings downgrade accompanied by a warning that more could follow.
> Fitch Ratings, which had issued such a warning last month, followed through by slimming the general obligation bond rating of the nation's largest bond seller one notch to "A"-minus from "A."





> California faces a $24 billion-plus budget deficit for the fiscal year that begins Wednesday, rapidly declining sales tax revenues and an impotent legislature that can’t agree on solutions. Faced with the prospect of running out of cash, State Controller John Chiang said Wednesday *the state will begin to issue IOUs* for all general fund payments other than those categories protected by the state constitution, federal law and court decisions.




You now have a choice - paper IOU's or Gold?

Who's buying the bonds??



> Complete collapse in foreign interest for GSE debt: North American holdings of the latter have increased from 50% to 80% of total notional *in one year*!




US Federal Gov Debt:Total public debt is growing at the rate of $5 BILLION A DAY! The step change 3 qtr's ago was from a rate of $2 BILLION A DAY.


----------



## refined silver

kennas said:


> And then it crashes?




No, .52 IS a crash for the world's reserve currency. The USDX is just under .80 now.


----------



## trendtrader

are there anyone on the thread forecasting gold with technical analysis?


----------



## explod

Ah he he

He He He Ho

They got a straight line on the gold price the last few weeks and as usual push it down before trader4s are awake on a Mundy and it looks like a real blood bath.   Getting very desperate now, must be getting close to some real pressure on the shorts.

News out of US is that China thinking about a new reserve currency.  News out of Asia that China will act on a new reserve currency at the next G8.  But gold will probably be held down till the tanks get the true message, they are such great Godbotherers and good sheep we may have some time to wait yet.

On the technicals,.... the bottom uptrend appears intact at US$920, long term the bottom uptrend support is 800.

So maybe need to take another few weeks off.

The current flag formation could go another 4 months before a breakout one way or another has to occur.


----------



## Ageo

September/October should see some big moves as Christmas is closer and the jewellery industry demand spikes around the globe. This is my experience i have found over the last few yrs.


----------



## refined silver

Korean Central Bank about to start buying gold for first time in 11 years.

The trickle will become a flood.



> Bank of Korea to Buy Gold for First Time in 11 Years
> 
> From Dong-A Ilbo (East Asia Daily)
> Seoul, South Korea
> Saturday, July 4, 2009
> 
> The Bank of Korea has not purchased gold for 11 years but is expected to go on a gold buying spree, as the world’s central banks have bought the commodity since the global economic erupted in September last year.
> 
> A Bank of Korea official said yesterday, “The bank has begun to set up a plan to manage foreign exchange reserves for next year. It has also closely watched central banks in other nations and trends in the global gold market. Given the changing global financial environment, the bank’s management plan is critical.”
> 
> According to experts, the comment implies that the bank plans to buy gold soon. Korea has the world’s sixth most foreign exchange reserves but ranks just 56th in gold holdings.
> 
> China, which has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, has secretly bought 454 tons of gold over the past six years. This has intensified global competition to obtain more gold.



http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2009070411578


----------



## wayneL

Ageo said:


> September/October should see some big moves as Christmas is closer and the jewellery industry demand spikes around the globe. This is my experience i have found over the last few yrs.




Seasonal charts agree:


----------



## Ageo

wayneL said:


> Seasonal charts agree:




Thanks for posting that chart wayne. Its funny we have an order in Italy to come through and they`re pushing it as in August all the factories shut down for the whole month.

Based on previous buying spree's i think the basis of AU gold should be around $1500 by the end of the year. The only thing i see going against it is a really strong AUD over the USD which will counter any strong moves in the gold price. 

Only time will tell


----------



## moXJO

Govt intervention to pop what’s left? 

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=5804EBD8-1871-E587-E142755673D639DF


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Depending on how much value you put on MACD, there maybe some sort of turning point for gold soon, even outperforming gold equities? Note these are weekly data too....


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Depending on how much value you put on MACD, there maybe some sort of turning point for gold soon, even outperforming gold equities? Note these are weekly data too....




Maybe, but as in the collapse of all the great empires it will be the value, but for now the belief in the US dollar.  Its all about currency, but first hurdle is sentiment.  The Dow appears poised for the next downward path, that will give strenth to the dollar, but when they both begin to fall in tandem gold will then be the only value in town.   

We are not there yet, but we called it here on ASF


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> .
> 
> We are not there yet, but we called it here on ASF




yep and so have millions of others 

but i know we said it 1st!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Maybe, but as in the collapse of all the great empires it will be the value, but for now the belief in the US dollar. Its all about currency, but first hurdle is sentiment. The Dow appears poised for the next downward path, that will give strenth to the dollar, but when they both begin to fall in tandem gold will then be the only value in town.
> 
> We are not there yet, but we called it here on ASF




Right on Q, gold tanks $20!! Still the USD counter trade for now. Longer timeframe still intact? Short AUD/USD making up for it .


----------



## Ageo

Uncle Festivus said:


> Right on Q, gold tanks $20!! Still the USD counter trade for now. Longer timeframe still intact? Short AUD/USD making up for it .




Yeh gold is down but so is the AUD so in reality the AU gold price hasnt moved. (well down a couple of dollars).


----------



## MRC & Co

wayneL said:


> Seasonal charts agree:




Would seasonal movements already (at least to some extent) be factored into the forward futures contracts?


----------



## wayneL

MRC & Co said:


> Would seasonal movements already (at least to some extent) be factored into the forward futures contracts?




No. That's not how forward contracts work. Have a look at the GC strip:

http://www2.barchart.com/dfutpage.asp?sym=GC&code=BSTK&section=metals

Generally in a contract like gold, there is a natural contango because of carrying costs. But if you look at contracts up till December, there is even some backwardation between successive contracts at the moment.

If someone tried to price in the seasonal tendency in say the October contract, the arbitrageurs would be all over it like a rash, shorting the October and buying spot. 

And remember a seasonal tendency is just that... a tendency. Prices can run against the seasonal tendency too.


----------



## MRC & Co

wayneL said:


> Generally in a contract like gold, there is a natural contango because of carrying costs. But if you look at contracts up till December, there is even some backwardation between successive contracts at the moment.
> 
> If someone tried to price in the seasonal tendency in say the October contract, the arbitrageurs would be all over it like a rash, shorting the October and buying spot.
> 
> And remember a seasonal tendency is just that... a tendency. Prices can run against the seasonal tendency too.




Yep, that's what I figured, but just wanted to get it straight.

Thx.


----------



## electronicmaster

Mike Maloney and Rich Dad's Robert Kiyosaki talks about historic inflation adjustment in the Gold price and also talks about the potential inflation adjusted Gold price that is yet to match this years total Money supply.  



China plans to buy $80 billion worth of gold" GATA interview and GATA board members gives an update on gold & market manipulation





Got Silver?


----------



## explod

Yep Kyosaki has been bullish on gold for two years now, his update is on the money but few actually can believe it.

Just glad that I do and hold gold.


----------



## electronicmaster

electronicmaster said:


> China plans to buy $80 billion worth of gold" GATA interview and GATA board members gives an update on gold & market manipulation
> 
> 
> 
> Got Silver?




Anyone think that GATA is trying to hard to get Gold and Silver to default?  I mean... Is China just Opening their mouth again just to upset the USA?

I suspect that China won't spend $80 Billion on Gold at all.  No way.


----------



## explod

Very quiet on the gold front, the following from Trader Dan...



> Crude oil and the Dollar are the two markets that gold is keying off of right now so its fortunes are linked directly to both. Crude oil moving higher causes the hedge fund algorithms to shoot buy orders to the gold pit as the inflation play then comes back into existence with commodities across the board generally moving higher.
> 
> Strangely enough, the mining shares were not particularly impressive even though they moved up but they did seem to be reluctant to follow gold higher for a while this morning. Again, I am not sure what to make of this one day price action because it is just more of the same choppiness and inability to sustain any trends in one direction or the other.
> 
> Technically, the move above $920 in gold is friendly as it serves to reinforce the support level that has been emerging just above the $900 level. Gold will still need to clear $950 to generate any real upside excitement. Before it can do that it will first need a close above $940. Downside support remains intact near today’s low followed by strong support near the $880 level.
> 
> The major moving averages in gold are all above today’s session high so gold has some definite work to do before one can get all that excited about today’s gains however the RSI’s sideways trend is still intact meaning that the consolidation pattern continues with its slight upward bias.



...

Source: Mineset


----------



## MRC & Co

Explod, earnings season right now is the important factor at the forefront.

A rising risk appetite last night, led equities to pull oil higher and send the USD down.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Explod, earnings season right now is the important factor at the forefront.
> 
> A rising risk appetite last night, led equities to pull oil higher and send the USD down.




A breach of .795 on the US$ index may light up the fuse.

On bad news the Dow rose this morning, this often precedes the next drop which would give temporary support to the US dollar.

This week will be interesting I think, for a change


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Irony - gold bugs now want the economic stimulis plans to be spectacularly succesfull to stoke the inflation flame thrower? Dow goes up - gold goes up.


----------



## MRC & Co

Uncle Festivus said:


> Irony - gold bugs now want the economic stimulis plans to be spectacularly succesfull to stoke the inflation flame thrower? Dow goes up - gold goes up.




lol, it is funny.

Think the PPI last night in the US was a nice positive for gold over-night.


----------



## explod

explod said:


> A breach of .795 on the US$ index may light up the fuse.




The $ index doing its bit tonight, down to 79.46, silver leading and gold firming which is a bullish sign.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Berlusconi - Stifling the "Free market" merchant

Just because my country is in ridiculous debt, there must be a way to make money out of that! 

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7423636&subject=markets&action=article

ROME/FRANKFURT, July 15 (Reuters) - Italy said it was considering changes to a proposal to tax the gold reserves of the Bank of Italy after the European Central Bank said on Wednesday the law risked breaching central bank independence.


Italy separately proposed cutting its planned capital gains tax rate on gold transactions to 1 percent from 6 percent, but it was not immediately clear if this was in response to the ECB's criticism.

In a legal opinion published on its Web site, the ECB said the draft law -- taxing capital gains on gold reserves due to rising market prices -- would weaken the Italian central bank's finances and mean it might not be able to carry out its tasks.

The legislation, designed to shore up Italy's wide public deficit this year, risked violating a ban on using central bank resources to finance the public sector, the ECB said.

"The draft article needs to be reconsidered to address the concerns expressed in this opinion, relating in particular to central bank independence and the prohibition on monetary financing," the ECB said in a strongly-worded opinion.

"The ECB expects to be consulted on any revised draft legislative provisions in this matter."

Italy's cabinet on June 26 gave initial approval to a package of legal measures to tackle a shortfall in public finances caused by the economic slowdown. Italy's government expects its deficit to top 5 percent of GDP this year, far in excess of Brussels' 3 percent ceiling.

The Banca d'Italia is the fourth-largest holder of gold in the world, with reserves of 2,452 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Its reserves are worth around $73 billion at current prices, according to Reuters calculations.

In a statement on Wednesday, Italy's finance ministry said the ECB's opinion was part of an ongoing exchange of information and steps would be taken to ensure the measures did not affect the Bank of Italy's independence.
"We expect to find a solution through amendments (to the law)," the statement said.

*Haha what a statesman!*


----------



## explod

Extract from Trader Dan,  Mineset, this morning.



> The HUI put in one of those nice bullish formations on its daily price charts but still has much work to do technically to convincingly assert the bullish case. Not until it gets a close above 360 can it be said that the gold stocks are out of the bear woods just yet. I want to point out however that it did get back above that 100 day moving average which means that the shorts are having great difficulty pushing prices lower as value buyers seem to be emerging.
> 
> I suspect that what we are seeing in gold and by inverse, the Dollar’s action, is increasing concern about the pace of reckless spending by the US government. Chatter about surtaxes on millionaires to pay for a government boondoggle called health care reform and an attempt to push a cap and tax program upon an economy that is reeling from a credit meltdown can hardly be said to be the thing that makes for balanced budgets and enhanced tax revenues. Corporate tax revenues have plunged an astonishing 57% and yet more punitive business measures seem to be in store. My view is that individual tax rates are going to reach 50% even as capital gains taxes are raised to 20%. There is no end in sight to the transfer of private wealth to the government and none of this is business friendly in the long term. Heaven help the US Dollar…..and by consequence, the future for our children and grandchildren.




Could the last para apply to Australia in the future?


----------



## Sean K

I think gold equities are only moving with the market at the moment. Give or take. POG probably only moved up in line with metals the past couple of days.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Surprised this thread is so quiet considering the break in POG, POO 

explod must be down at Crown counting random events.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Surprised this thread is so quiet considering the break in POG, POO
> 
> explod must be down at Crown counting random events.




And just back after a good day.  Royboy can testify as I sent him a pm this morning.   Suppose you hoped I'd gone away.

Yes bullish for a Monday. US$ index at a critical support level, maybe the jawboning on WS and B,berg not working this time after the garbage last week.

We shall see.

Nice that you care t/h   cheers explod


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Surprised this thread is so quiet considering the break in POG, POO
> 
> explod must be down at Crown counting random events.




And just back after a good day.  Royboy can testify as I sent him a pm this morning.   Suppose you hoped I'd gone away.

Yes bullish for a Monday. US$ index at a critical support level, maybe the jawboning on WS and B,berg not working this time after the garbage last week.

We shall see.

Nice that you care t/h   cheers explod


----------



## roysolder

hey explod,
                 gee i thought you had been quiet with gold on the move.btw i did,nt get your pm my ol mate  and hoped you had,nt lept from wall st sign and broken the bren gun.
regards royboy :}


----------



## explod

Gold price up like this on a Monday looks interesting for the bugs.  Us dollar breaking resistance.

sorry chart did not post but at US$952.50 we are up $15 on the day.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Gold price up like this on a Monday looks interesting for the bugs.  Us dollar breaking resistance.
> 
> sorry chart did not post but at US$952.50 we are up $15 on the day.




Yep another 10% or so and it will have caught up with equities for the last coupla weeks :


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep another 10% or so and it will have caught up with equities for the last coupla weeks :




Yep, but look for a weekly close above US$1,030 and it will pass equities (cept gold stocks) like a rocket.  A big audience now looking for something solid will climb on,,     IMHO

May be a bit off that yet but it is grinding towards it.

Of course from a day traders perspective your outlook is correct.


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> Yep, but look for a weekly close above US$1,030 and it will pass equities (cept gold stocks) like a rocket.  A big audience now looking for something solid will climb on,,     IMHO
> 
> May be a bit off that yet but it is grinding towards it.
> 
> Of course from a day traders perspective your outlook is correct.




Yes, this gold resilience is very interesting.

I closed shorts at 920s.  

The USD index looks very weak now.  With the risk appetite back.

But what happens if USD index does break below it's support and runs fast (despite Geithner trying his best to add strength too it)?  I don't doubt gold will run up and commodities may get a boost?  But what about equities and bonds?  We may see a real break-down of the correlations should this play out.  

All would really really fark the US economy and perhaps we could see the decoupling from the Asian driven growth.  

But all seems a bit too obvious.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Of course from a day traders perspective your outlook is correct.



 just stirring 



MRC & Co said:


> Yes, this gold resilience is very interesting.
> 
> I closed shorts at 920s.
> 
> The USD index looks very weak now.  With the risk appetite back.
> 
> But what happens if USD index does break below it's support and runs fast (despite Geithner trying his best to add strength too it)?  I don't doubt gold will run up and commodities may get a boost?  But what about equities and bonds?  We may see a real break-down of the correlations should this play out.
> 
> All would really really fark the US economy and perhaps we could see the decoupling from the Asian driven growth.
> 
> But all seems a bit too obvious.



 yep its a simple equation at the moment. Just long anything against the USD, let it run, take some profit, wait, repeat.


----------



## explod

> MRC & Co
> 
> but all seems a bit too obvious.




To us here in Aus., maybe, but when one considers the b/s in the financial press over there, that the value they have is mostly hot air, then following the bleeding obvious could be a good direction.

Anyway good to have it back on our radar.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, this gold resilience is very interesting.
> 
> I closed shorts at 920s.
> 
> The USD index looks very weak now.  With the risk appetite back.
> 
> But what happens if USD index does break below it's support and runs fast (despite Geithner trying his best to add strength too it)?  I don't doubt gold will run up and commodities may get a boost?  But what about equities and bonds?  We may see a real break-down of the correlations should this play out.
> 
> All would really really fark the US economy and perhaps we could see the decoupling from the Asian driven growth.
> 
> But all seems a bit too obvious.




Idea I have on euro ATM


----------



## explod

The six month chart now shows a clear long pennant and a break up or down has to occur in the next few weeks.   The action of the US$ index if it continues to weaken would indicate an upside break may see the next test of the $US1000

Copper at all time high levels again and oil on the move up would support this contention.  IMHO

cheers explod


----------



## Ageo

The AUD/USD is not helping thow it seems like any gains from the POG is getting wiped from it.

Its funny the AU gold price has been sitting in a range from 1150-1180 for quite some time now. 

$1500 AU gold price by the yrs end is what most refiners are expecting to be the base price. 

lets wait and see


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> The AUD/USD is not helping thow it seems like any gains from the POG is getting wiped from it.
> 
> Its funny the AU gold price has been sitting in a range from 1150-1180 for quite some time now.
> 
> $1500 AU gold price by the yrs end is what most refiners are expecting to be the base price.
> 
> lets wait and see




As you are well aware Ageo, gold bars are very scarce.   As I have said many times, the AU dollar will make little difference when gold US holds above 1000, you will have a mad scramble for it and that sentiment will do the rest.

It can be seen, you can hold it in your hand and has tangible value.  A paper note can become nothing.


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> As you are well aware Ageo, gold bars are very scarce.   As I have said many times, the AU dollar will make little difference when gold US holds above 1000, you will have a mad scramble for it and that sentiment will do the rest.
> 
> It can be seen, you can hold it in your hand and has tangible value.  A paper note can become nothing.




Very true, what will happen is the spreads between the spot AU (and the bar gold itself) will be massive to reflect the true value of the gold.

anywayz i know 1 thing and that is north is where it is heading long term.

The weekend that just passed i was in a rural town to purchase scrap (gold) and it was interesting to see how many people came in to sell their old jewellery because how tough times were getting them. Until you see real market data its hard to determine what is and will happen in the future.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ageo said:


> Very true, what will happen is the spreads between the spot AU (and the bar gold itself) will be massive to reflect the true value of the gold.
> 
> anywayz i know 1 thing and that is north is where it is heading long term.
> 
> The weekend that just passed i was in a rural town to purchase scrap (gold) and it was interesting to see how many people came in to sell their old jewellery because how tough times were getting them. Until you see real market data its hard to determine what is and will happen in the future.





Confirmation bias!!

You are saying extra supply will increase price??

LOL


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It looks like the gold doubters are the ones who have to submit the answers - if all is  green shoots and bamboo sprouts then why is gold _still_ $940, and not ZERO?

The conversations around the globe in hushed polite company would be on how to extricate themselves from trade in $USD's? The problems of the US have become the problems of the world just by the fact that they are the default world currency, and any weakness results in them (foreigners) paying more for their raw materials, irrespective of supply/demand fundamentals, (if that even exist's anymore without some sort of fiddling from speculators like Goldman distorting the markets).

So if we assume a 1:1 negative corellation with the USD/AUD then we would expect the AUD to appreciate, yet that will make our commodities increasingly expensive and precipitate another round of demand destruction from a point of already subdued natural price discovery based on intrinsic supply & demand, which in China's case is being distorted by stimulus and money supply increases of 25% per month to appear to sustain a miraculous rate of GDP growth. In short, US gold up, AU gold down initially then up?

So not sure if it's inflation anymore, rather the survival of the US currency itself, even though the gold price id behaving as though the is going to be some sort of super inflationary boom soon? I don't think the amount of money being put back into the system has come anywhere near the amount so far lost, so if anything, continuing deflation, like recent figures from the EU suggest? There's just not enough money circulating in the right area's for this to be the start of a sustained economic recovery based on, yet again, massive debt!


----------



## Ageo

Trembling Hand said:


> Confirmation bias!!
> 
> You are saying extra supply will increase price??
> 
> LOL




extra supply??? lol a few kilo's isnt gonna change much to the supply and demand figures TH 

Im just stating people are doing it tough and scraping in whatever they have (gold a big 1) but that doesnt account for the short supply in bullion.


----------



## lasty

"There's just not enough money circulating in the right area's for this to be the start of a sustained economic recovery based on, yet again, massive debt!"

If the massive debt is in US dollars and currencies are strengthening against it then that massive debt value starts to shrink for everyone else bar the US.
As the US dollar declines their chances of inflation rises.

Interesting times and Gold is where them US dollars are heading.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

in the scheme of things a dirt cheap USD can only be a good thing for the usa, get some blood pumping though their export veins and help that deficit cancer they have growing at a incredible pace.

I still see gold euro and aud higher to usd.....for the time being


----------



## explod

I smell it, feel it:  time to brush the dust off this thread Madarms and Gents.

The lows continue to rise higher and any dip is short lived by eager buyers, the bears are on the run.

China overtly using foreign reserves to buy copper, gold and into good offshore businesses.   Gold fabricators not taking orders because they cannot fill those allready on the books.

The US dollar index about to complete a head and shoulders down to .72 in the next few weeks IMO

The time is usually a low one for gold but it looks like it will be rising into the next season.

Ill juz stop for nuther red.

cheers


----------



## Agentm

Gold Sector Trading Conclusion:

It feels as though we are on the verge of a big gold rally. This is if the US financial lords run out of money to short bullion or finally run out of gold to sell. Either way; once gold starts to running I don’t thing there will be much looking back until the $1200-$1500 level.



Gold stocks are now starting to show signs of life and when that happens in conjunction with the monthly, weekly and daily charts are forming bullish breakouts, look for some Golden Rockets which are junior stocks which have good cash flow and a solid management team behind it.



We continue to wait with our finger on the buy button for gold as prices drift sideways on the weekly chart. With everyone so bullish on gold I have to wonder if we are about to get a sharp correction hence the reason I wait for a low risk setup.


----------



## explod

> We continue to wait with our finger on the buy button for gold as prices drift sideways on the weekly chart. With everyone so bullish on gold I have to wonder if we are about to get a sharp correction hence the reason I wait for a low risk setup.




A very good point to keep in mind Agentum, may be just on the strength of our crapola they will dump big time tonight.

Intersting times, but I believe the fundamentals are begining to speak.


----------



## Gundini

Agentm said:


> Gold Sector Trading Conclusion:
> 
> We continue to wait with our finger on the buy button for gold as prices drift sideways on the weekly chart. With everyone so bullish on gold I have to wonder if we are about to get a sharp correction hence the reason I wait for a low risk setup.




I would love a correction in Gold as I only have 20% of the Gold I would like to hold. One third NCM and two thirds ETF. Both have been giving me grief, but EFT decline has matched up with NCM rise from 29's so square for now.

Happy with this position at the minute, and any correction is short lived imo.


----------



## Paul Ellis

there was a period back in May when I thought Gold was a win-win.  When everyone got nervous and the market tanked, people would buy into Gold as a safe haven.  Then when the market bounced, people started talking about hyperinflation and Gold jumped as an inflation hedge.

I can't help but think it is on its way down unless some major event occurs - too much money on the sidelines to go into beaten down equities ....


----------



## Ageo

Gundini said:


> I would love a correction in Gold as I only have 20% of the Gold I would like to hold. One third NCM and two thirds ETF. Both have been giving me grief, but EFT decline has matched up with NCM rise from 29's so square for now.
> 
> Happy with this position at the minute, and any correction is short lived imo.




Its still a very good time to top up, these prices are considered low in the market and spreads are at decent levels.


----------



## lucifuge

Ageo said:


> Its still a very good time to top up, these prices are considered low in the market and spreads are at decent levels.




I feel the same, and if I had the dough I would!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Ageo said:


> Its still a very good time to top up, these prices are considered low in the market and spreads are at decent levels.




It's always good to have a plan and believe in some thing.

There's no sure thing in the market and a trader or investor should never have tunnel vision.

As posted in the euro thread the eur/usd is still in a bullish situation ATM but it's at no 100% yet.

Gold is still on a trend but it's also developing a range that could be a distribution top.  

This has allot of hallmarks to the 07 pattern but till confirmed it is what it is.

cheers,


----------



## Ageo

>Apocalypto< said:


> There's no sure thing in the market and a trader or investor should never have tunnel vision.




Apoc - of course there is no sure thing but i know anything under 1100AU gold is a bargain in the physical world. Once prices go over 1300AU refiners increase the spread to hedge against volatility.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Ageo said:


> Apoc - of course there is no sure thing but i know anything under 1100AU gold is a bargain in the physical world. Once prices go over 1300AU refiners increase the spread to hedge against volatility.




not trying to rain on any parades mate.

Just want to educe level thinking at this point in time.

between you and me, I am also leaning to the bullish side.


----------



## trading_rookie

Anyone bought or interested in the recent floats of Gold explorers out there? I note that Norsemen Gold (NGX) opened at 45c and is now trading somewhere around 78c. 

Too late to jump in on Triton Gold which from all reports is waay over-subscribed....any others out there worth considering? 

Re: the Gold miners, would the quality and quantity coming from WA be far superior than anywhere else in the country? Take LuckNow Gold Limited, they got a prospectus out and more or less jumping on the IPO bandwagon...but I just can't seem to be excited by a company exploring in NSW. I am wrong?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bit quiet in here recently. Must be time to stir the bugs,

Interesting. Equities, Oil, Commodity currencies all making new year highs. conspicuous by its absence in the new highs list was...... GOLD. Now that we are due for a pull back of sorts doesn't bode well for that triangle thingy on the POG. 

Boy oh boy she's an unrewarding Mistress this gold game. :

But ya never know, maybe next week.


----------



## Beej

Trembling Hand said:


> Bit quiet in here recently. Must be time to stir the bugs,
> 
> Interesting. Equities, Oil, Commodity currencies all making new year highs. conspicuous by its absence in the new highs list was...... GOLD. Now that we are due for a pull back of sorts doesn't bode well for that triangle thingy on the POG.
> 
> Boy oh boy she's an unrewarding Mistress this gold game. :
> 
> But ya never know, maybe next week.




Not mention that if you track the price in $AU it looks even worse......

Beej


----------



## Sean K

Trembling Hand said:


> Now that we are due for a pull back of sorts doesn't bode well for that triangle thingy on the POG.



Someone was calling a huge inverse H&S thingy somewhere, but I thought they were just reversal patterns. The neckline for the only huge H&S thingy I see is actually at it's peaks...


----------



## Ageo

Beej said:


> Not mention that if you track the price in $AU it looks even worse......
> 
> Beej




tell me about it hehe.......

Normal when gold goes down the dollar goes down but when the revers happens its like a double slap in the face.


But then again last January saw us seeing the gold flying up and the dollar falling which was a double cognac serving each time.

It needs to set itself up for the sept/oct run which should push over the 1300 mark.


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Bit quiet in here recently. Must be time to stir the bugs,
> 
> Interesting. Equities, Oil, Commodity currencies all making new year highs. conspicuous by its absence in the new highs list was...... GOLD. Now that we are due for a pull back of sorts doesn't bode well for that triangle thingy on the POG.
> 
> Boy oh boy she's an unrewarding Mistress this gold game. :
> 
> But ya never know, maybe next week.




Yeah, day before yday oil rallies and usd tanked but gold stayed flat. Looks like some selling pressure on gold lately. 

Opposite situation was active a while ago at $930s when gold shrugged off neg oil and usd and just ran.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Looks like some selling pressure on gold lately.




Bloody [INSERT - Manipulators, PPT, Pope, whoever ]


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody [INSERT - Manipulators, PPT, Pope, whoever ]




As soon as I go away you all get/or dont' get nervous.   There's no worries.

Gold now trading between support US$925, if it holds and 950, the pennant is getting tight now so the break, whichever way is only a few weeks away now.  Many pundits say that into the Fall, US autumn, so the end of August usually is strong for gold.

But still say its about the US dollar which came within a whisker a few days ago of breaking through support.   Interesting observation of one was that they jacked the dollar up for a visit by Chinese Officials to talk about, you guessed it currency strength.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Explod you ignoring the divergence with highs on everything except Gold?


Nothing to worry about?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Explod you ignoring the divergence with highs on everything except Gold?
> 
> 
> Nothing to worry about?




Not sure I copy that t/h. ?

But gold with continuing higher lows is what I am seeing.   Having said that I am not trading it at the moment just holding my long term physical.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Not sure I copy that t/h. ?
> 
> But gold with continuing higher lows is what I am seeing.   Having said that I am not trading it at the moment just holding my long term physical.




see post number #6917 

Gold & Silver are showing weakness compared to just about everything else. Isn't this yet another time the bugs are wrong. Should gold "in theory" be running wild with all this money printing going on? But its everything that Gold bugs hate thats been the winners and gold just made another lower high!


----------



## Sean K

Trembling Hand said:


> see post number #6917
> 
> Gold & Silver are showing weakness compared to just about everything else. Isn't this yet another time the bugs are wrong. Should gold "in theory" be running wild with all this money printing going on? But its everything that Gold bugs hate thats been the winners and gold just made another lower high!



Gold Bugs are medium-long term investors I think TH.

We need to wait a while to see if they are right or wrong.

I think right, but in the short term. eeeek


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> see post number #6917
> 
> Gold & Silver are showing weakness compared to just about everything else. Isn't this yet another time the bugs are wrong. Should gold "in theory" be running wild with all this money printing going on? But its everything that Gold bugs hate thats been the winners and gold just made another lower high!





Broadly it has held its own.    Most of the stock market has in the last year contracted 40% .   Gold is still where it was back then.   Maintaining overall equity has been fine for me.

We will see.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kennas said:


> Gold Bugs are medium-long term investors I think TH.
> 
> We need to wait a while to see if they are right or wrong.
> 
> I think right, but in the short term. eeeek




Yeah sure they will take some short term heat from time to time. And AUD bugs are certainly taking that at the mo.

But I've been listening and at first agreeing with the Bugs since 2001. firstly the banking/Capitalist system was going to implode, which it just about did, and gold was going to go from $300 to $5000. Which it didn't.

Now they tell us that because of the printing presses running hot gold *has to* take off. When its actually lagging. Is this the second sign of a breakdown in the Gold/PM run?

Or just another head fake before the stars align?


----------



## Sean K

Trembling Hand said:


> Or just another head fake before the stars align?



Just another baulk I think. They are going to get past and kick a goal.

I hope... 

Or, gold investments are going to be ordinary..


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, there are a few breakdowns of correlations lately.

Oil in particular is taking a beating, along with gold.  

Dr copper and equities appear to be the big gainers.  

USD index is not really going anywhere, still very choppy.


----------



## explod

guycharles said:


> We have seen the false start and the consolidation. Now that more and more people are starting  to realise inflation is about to go nuts and that is good for Gold.




Guycharls back in 2004, the first post of the gold thread, Joe Blow made the second post and was a bit on the bullish side at that time.

Its not my thread, but I love it and acknowledge the amazing amount of great contributions.   To keep it going that way I have been thinking (dangerous you say??) that we think perhaps too much about the short term, perhaps.

Gold is merely a store of value, its like a block of ground which you can sit on, gold you can hold, it has a physical presence.  If one digs the garden you can see the result, build a house, you have made value.  However a piece of paper or a computer entry requires faith at both ends of the deal to honour that value agreed apon.  If one cannot pay then the value is nought.

In the last 3000 years gold has always held a relative value to tangible assets.  I look on it only as a hedge to maintain the basic equity of my overall portfolio.  In the last four years it has done that.   

Gold shares are very risky and only a very small part of my trading goes to them.  In the last year many small caps dissappeared altogether, if the market goes down the gold stocks go with them.  I have been re reading a lot on the fundamentals of holding gold and have a lot more on my mind.  Just wanted to perhaps introduce some discussion to get this thread back on the track I think was originally intended.  

cheers explod


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Guycharls back in 2004, the first post of the gold thread, Joe Blow made the second post and was a bit on the bullish side at that time.
> 
> Its not my thread, but I love it and acknowledge the amazing amount of great contributions.   To keep it going that way I have been thinking (dangerous you say??) that we think perhaps too much about the short term, perhaps.
> 
> Gold is merely a store of value, its like a block of ground which you can sit on, gold you can hold, it has a physical presence.  If one digs the garden you can see the result, build a house, you have made value.  However a piece of paper or a computer entry requires faith at both ends of the deal to honour that value agreed apon.  If one cannot pay then the value is nought.
> 
> In the last 3000 years gold has always held a relative value to tangible assets.  I look on it only as a hedge to maintain the basic equity of my overall portfolio.  In the last four years it has done that.
> 
> Gold shares are very risky and only a very small part of my trading goes to them.  In the last year many small caps dissappeared altogether, if the market goes down the gold stocks go with them.  I have been re reading a lot on the fundamentals of holding gold and have a lot more on my mind.  Just wanted to perhaps introduce some discussion to get this thread back on the track I think was originally intended.
> 
> cheers explod




no matter how u plug/preach it Explod, it's still in a range and not going any where till 1000 or 750 is moved though. 

time will tell


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> no matter how u plug/preach it Explod, it's still in a range and not going any where till 1000 or 750 is moved though.
> 
> time will tell




Ah, a nice weekend away from screen.

..."Plug it"...?       I pointed out the risk in trading gold shares.

My interest is only for preservation and hedge of portfolio, gold is up 5.2% for the last twelve months so my physical holdings have done the job.

Not sure of your range either, seems to have established good support now at US$920, bullion banks cap at 960 is the one to cross on the up.   A very good jump at the close Friday night.

Lets see what the week brings.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Lets see what the week brings.




Well its started well explode. POG & POS  (Oil aside) are the greenest finishers to last week and have started the week well.

I actually think your chances of a massive breakout this month are on the cards. I will be away from the screens all of August/Sep. I will not be manipulating the price lower any more with my 2 lot on COMEX.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Well its started well explode. POG & POS  (Oil aside) are the greenest finishers to last week and have started the week well.
> 
> I actually think your chances of a massive breakout this month are on the cards. I will be away from the screens all of August/Sep. I will not be manipulating the price lower any more with my 2 lot on COMEX.



Uh oh, time to go short !

Some interesting happenings with the treasuries/notes auctions as usual, this time along the lines of changing the goal posts of the definition of indirect buyers, ie it could mean that the Fed & or treasury will step in to mop up the slack, not that they don't already ie last weeks 7 yr auction had indirect buyers amounting to 67% of the total!

The problem with all of this short term debt issuance is that at some stage it will have to be rolled over, most likely at the same time as more new debt is being issued ie The Sara Lee scheme - debt apon debt apon debt.

As bad as that is, it still pales when compared to Chinas reflation efforts.


----------



## explod

As some have already mentioned today, gold is looking strong at the moment.

My focus is allways the US$ undex.  Just steadily tonight it has fallen through resistance (78.20) the next main support being 76.00.   When the index was last at 78.20, about November last year the gold price was around US$800    At the next support area (76) gold was at about 900   The previous rises and falls  of the index at these critical times were swift.   Does an index value of 96 read as a US$ gold price of 1,050..............would seem so

We are getting close I think


----------



## solomon

There is some volume going through tonight and it isn't bringing the price down, looks very intersting.


----------



## Tradesurfer

That old resistance are $1000-$1040 is still important. If it can break above those levels then atleast a long position would have a nice area(old resistance now support) where they would be able to place stops incase it went and violated the breakout.

As mentioned, US Dollar Index moving lower boosts commodities as they are dollar priced.


----------



## Sean K

Tradesurfer said:


> That old resistance are $1000-$1040 is still important.



A solid break of that and all hell will break loose imo.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> A solid break of that and all hell will break loose imo.



Not shure what the catalyst will be for that; better money to be made elsewhere I'm afraid; the money shufflers con job is working; just not sure who's going to pay for it? Gold dissapoints again.


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not shure what the catalyst will be for that; better money to be made elsewhere I'm afraid; the money shufflers con job is working; just not sure who's going to pay for it? Gold dissapoints again.





Pop over to to the silver thread Uncle and listen to Cramer on regulators moving in on the bullion bank mnipulation.


----------



## cuttlefish

Gold showing some strength again so far tonight.


----------



## GumbyLearner

cuttlefish said:


> Gold showing some strength again so far tonight.




No **** cuttle. Im looking for a 4 digit breakout'.


----------



## Nyden

A pop to 4 digits? Perhaps $1000aud : Really, does the strength in the AUD not concern gold bugs? I had a gander of the AUD gold chart, and it's basically a straight trend down for the past few months. A 20% loss over 6 months, I hope not many of you still have the stuff buried in the yard


----------



## Ageo

Nyden said:


> A pop to 4 digits? Perhaps $1000aud : Really, does the strength in the AUD not concern gold bugs? I had a gander of the AUD gold chart, and it's basically a straight trend down for the past few months. A 20% loss over 6 months, I hope not many of you still have the stuff buried in the yard




Nyden answer me this question if you may:

* $1000 what will it buy you today and then in 20 yrs?

* 1 ounce of gold what will it buy you today and then in 20yrs?

After some thinking........................







I rest my case


----------



## Nyden

Ageo said:


> Nyden answer me this question if you may:
> 
> * $1000 what will it buy you today and then in 20 yrs?
> 
> * 1 ounce of gold what will it buy you today and then in 20yrs?
> 
> After some thinking........................
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I rest my case





Yes, but unlike the gold; which lays buried in the yard, money can be placed into a bank account to earn interest, and compound. Or, better yet - money can be used for other investments, almost all of which will probably outperform gold over the next 20 years, sorry.


----------



## moXJO

Nyden said:


> Yes, but unlike the gold; which lays buried in the yard, money can be placed into a bank account to earn interest, and compound. Or, better yet - money can be used for other investments, almost all of which will probably outperform gold over the next 20 years, sorry.




I know of physical gold investments that have returned up to 30% c.p.a :


----------



## cuttlefish

short = fail. (circa 11:10 aest 7th aug 09).


----------



## Buckeroo

Nyden said:


> Yes, but unlike the gold; which lays buried in the yard, money can be placed into a bank account to earn interest, and compound. Or, better yet - money can be used for other investments, almost all of which will probably outperform gold over the next 20 years, sorry.




Not if your living in Zimbabwe. 

The Yanks are following the same path & will find out pretty soon how worthless their dollars are...and that's when gold will break free of the USD.

Cheers


----------



## cuttlefish

short + kahuna's = success. (circa 12:17 aest 8th aug 09).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Pop over to to the silver thread Uncle and listen to Cramer on regulators moving in on the bullion bank mnipulation.




Cramer!!! LOL what a douche 

 

explod you live in a wonderful world..... I really hope that gold goes to 1 000 000 000, and paper currency burns.

you have put so much into this u deserve it....


----------



## Naked shorts

Explod, may suggest you sell your gold?

I would say now is a great time to do so because risk appetite has returned (more so every day), and the only thing in my mind that is holding gold up is the fear of hyper-inflation. Its only a matter of time before BB calms the market again about the issue of hyper-inflation and seeks more power to avoid it.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

here's something for u explod..........

presented by FOREX Signals Guide 

http://www.forexsignalsguide.com/business-articles/why-dollar-will-get-stronger/

Why The Dollar Will Get Stronger

by Mark Carlson

The whole market is currently short the dollar right now but I think that could be a big mistake.  I know this is a completely contrarian view and that the outlook for the dollar is not good.  However, I have 5 good questions and 5 good answers why I think the dollar is headed for a reversal and that this is the perfect time to go long.

1.  What good is a strong Euro?  I believe a strong Euro will do more damage to Europe than a weak dollar will hurt the U.S.  Recently, our weak greenback has been beneficial in two different ways.  First by boosting exports and discouraging imports which provides a shot in the arm for our weak economy; not good for the Euro.  Second, it helps shrink our trade deposit in goods and services which in turn slows the endless flow of dollars abroad; not good for the Euro.

2.  Is there a currency that can replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency?  To this I have to say… into what?  Recently China suggested it would diversify away from the dollar to a likely candidate the Euro.  However, the Euro doesn’t have enough liquidity to handle the demand.  It is still an experimental currency that not one government can invest in with total faith.  Also, with more than two-thirds of foreign reserves in dollars, it would most likely take a decade to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

3.  Is there anyone a weak dollar helps in the long run?  Even though many countries somewhat dislike Americans, they dislike a really weak dollar even more.  Why?  A weak dollar makes U.S. exports attractive and forces foreigners to patronize that which they despise.  Their manufacturing industries suffer and their unemployment rises.  So don’t expect foreign governments to fight a modestly stronger dollar or even encourage it when the reversal begins.

4.  What about the stock market?  The stock market loves a strong dollar because a weak dollar is NOT beneficial to the stock market.  Historically, the average return of the S&P 500 – during times when the dollar was strong – was a gain of 86.6% which is over five times the average return of 16.4% when the dollar was weak.

5.  When is the best time to reverse positions in a market?  The best time to take a contrarian position in a market is when the most unlikely and unsophisticated are speculating.  Give me a break… when corner store owners and housewives start trying to earn extra income by speculating in the Forex, something they know nothing about, we’re near a bottom.  The smart money knows that and now you do to.

Yes, the dollar will get strong again; at least moderately.  In the near term there will probably be more pressure to the downside.  However, a turn is coming and when it does the change will come swiftly!

LOL LOL


----------



## joeyr46

>Apocalypto< said:


> here's something for u explod..........
> 
> presented by FOREX Signals Guide
> 
> http://www.forexsignalsguide.com/business-articles/why-dollar-will-get-stronger/
> 
> Why The Dollar Will Get Stronger
> 
> 
> Yes, the dollar will get strong again; at least moderately.  In the near term there will probably be more pressure to the downside.  However, a turn is coming and when it does the change will come swiftly!
> 
> LOL LOL



I think we saw the turn last night and our dollar has just retraced 61.8% of the down move so we should soon wstart going down again US Dollar bullish consensus down to 3% suggests if that was not a b ottom it shouldn't go much lower


----------



## moXJO

>Apocalypto< said:


> here's something for u explod..........
> 
> presented by FOREX Signals Guide
> 
> http://www.forexsignalsguide.com/business-articles/why-dollar-will-get-stronger/
> 
> Why The Dollar Will Get Stronger
> 
> LOL LOL




Dent is currently saying the same thing and has moved out of commodities, as he believes the US dollar will get stronger. I got the impression he seemed to think US dollar strength won't last that long though.


----------



## brty

Looking over the last few months, a few unusual occurrences have been happening, namely....

$US dollar index down
30 year bonds down
S&P500 up
Gold up
oil  up

If gold was to go down now with $US going up then expect the S&P to fall as well, unless there is a serious change in the links between the above.

brty


----------



## >Apocalypto<

so much hope in this thread it's amazing.

same old same old.

usd down USA to implode.

gold up blah blah blah 

NFPs showing a different picture on the USA right now.

I just spent the morning on kitco... what a hard sell that is a sick idea of a site. One of the most one sided hard sells I have ever seen.

you can see they have a vested interest in keeping the masses buying gold.


----------



## Sean K

>Apocalypto< said:


> I just spent the morning on kitco... what a hard sell that is a sick idea of a site. One of the most one sided hard sells I have ever seen.
> 
> you can see they have a vested interest in keeping the masses buying gold.



Philosphical point.

Who doesn't?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

a little more interesting news on the *USD*

(..) The euro-dollar's fairly range bound price action lately, in spite of important economic data, has some analysts thinking that the major trading strategy that has emerged in this crisis - what is good for the U.S. economy is bad for the U.S. dollar as traders seek riskier currencies - might be on the decline.

"I do think, at the margin, we're starting to see this whole safe-haven reverse relationship loosen," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York.

"The core of this report shows we're definitely seeing a slower pace of economic contraction," he said.

While the dollar is gaining currently with a flight to safety, "we are not far from the situation where good economic news for the U.S. could be good for its currency," said Bennenbroek. (..)

'Benny hill music'


----------



## explod

> >Apocalypto<
> 
> I just spent the morning on kitco... what a hard sell that is a sick idea of a site. One of the most one sided hard sells I have ever seen.




Agree, Kitco is a very missleading site.    And contrary to your main take Jon Nadler, the prime spokesman for the company (daily editorial heads the site) is bearish gold and supports the Wall Street and Federal Reserve's structure of the money (printed) on money ponzi scheme.



> brty
> 
> $US dollar index down
> 30 year bonds down
> S&P500 up
> Gold up
> oil up




Now you are just talking good old fashioned fundamentals and chart indicators, who takes notice of that any more.



> Why The Dollar Will Get Stronger
> 
> by Mark Carlson




Continued jawboning, not one of the five arguments is supported by a fundamental fact, just the dribble of the ponzie builders.

Apo old pal, you one of the bullion bankers or a member of that so called Plunge Protection Team.

And back to the normal world, gold puts in another higher low this week.

Oh'' and before I go back to sleep, notice the good old US job numbers trick,  much louder on Bloomberg this week,  that "the numbers look like coming in very bad for this month, 4% increase"   but you guessed it, came in about half that and Wall Street rallies on the good (actually bad) news again.

And with all these gurus saying gold is going to crash makes me think the contrarian that its maybe a good time to buy


----------



## Beej

explod said:


> And with all these gurus saying gold is going to crash makes me think the contrarian that its maybe a good time to buy




Hey if that's your conviction buy, buy away! Let us know if you actually do though, or whether perhaps you really have some niggling doubts about the likelihood of the "giant money ponzi scheme" of falling down anytime in our lifetimes. 

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## explod

Beej said:


> Hey if that's your conviction buy, buy away! Let us know if you actually do though, or whether perhaps you really have some niggling doubts about the likelihood of the "giant money ponzi scheme" of falling down anytime in our lifetimes.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Got all that I needed some years back and just happy to hold and see what comes.

Still by a few silver coins when I am in town though.

Are you properly authorised Beej, to tell me what to buy.

I have no doubts that my holdings will hold value.   They have increased at about 15% a year, only 5% this last year so will have to review that some time......perhaps

Many other passive investors have lost in that period.   Trading, well that;'s another matter, the bit I do keeps the pot going ok in the meantime.   Had a great little trade on KML this last few weeks, posted it up but no one else got on from what I could see.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> Continued jawboning, not one of the five arguments is supported by a fundamental fact, just the dribble of the ponzie builders.
> 
> Apo old pal, you one of the bullion bankers or a member of that so called Plunge Protection Team.
> 
> And back to the normal world, gold puts in another higher low this week.
> 
> Oh'' and before I go back to sleep, notice the good old US job numbers trick,  much louder on Bloomberg this week,  that "the numbers look like coming in very bad for this month, 4% increase"   but you guessed it, came in about half that and Wall Street rallies on the good (actually bad) news again.
> 
> And with all these gurus saying gold is going to crash makes me think the contrarian that its maybe a good time to buy




you really make me laugh.


----------



## Naked shorts

>Apocalypto< said:


> your delusion and tunnel vision really makes me laugh.




Ya gotta have someone on the other side Apoc


----------



## explod

Beej said:


> Hey if that's your conviction buy, buy away! Let us know if you actually do though, or whether perhaps you really have some niggling doubts about the likelihood of the "giant money ponzi scheme" of falling down anytime in our lifetimes.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Why do I bother, do you actually read, said I had my allocation, how can I buy more when I am already committed to the hilt.   First real sign that its over will be ready to sell.   Long way though, taxi driver's not talking about it yet

You's obviously slept through school.

Anyway good fun stirring you lot, keep it rolling


----------



## explod

Naked shorts said:


> Ya gotta have someone on the other side Apoc





Ya got that right. the whole lot of us ought to be put away for even reading this stuff.


----------



## MRC & Co

Well well well, we have seen the USD/equity correlation break down IMO.  

Appeared firm when NFPs came out (this was bound to be THE BIGGEST data even in recent times with all other facets of the global economy 'recovering').  

But then Euro took a nose dive........what happened after that?  Something very very very insane to me.  Euro went back near the high and S&P came off slightly...........why?  Personally, I think stat-arb funds tried to re-establish the correlation.  

Following I think global macro and event driven funds fed them to the wolves.  You could see some clear panic in the order flow after this (probably stat-arbs realising their models were now farked and turning their positions).  Which leads me to believe this correlation is here to stay for some time.

BUT, what did gold and oil do?  They still don't know what to latch onto.  

This IMHO, effectively destroys the 'flight to safety' idea, now that the market is pricing in a recovery of sorts, albeit maybe slow and bumpy, it's still obvious the authorities are going to get upto their old tricks and could keep this bubble from bursting to it's full extent for decades to come.

So, what is there left for gold?  Only hyperinflation IMO, but with excess capacity still in place, velocity of money still showing no great signs of increasing, a move towards greater rates of savings and particularly, the view of CBs to reign in the excess liquidity quick when need be, really minimizes that threat IMO.

Result:  I can't see why gold would pop the top anytime soon, but production commodities (energy and base metals) could see a 'growth story' bid? Perhaps a spread?  

I've got a 6 month put with 800 strike on gold FWIW.  

Just my opinion of course, but I can't see any positive for gold at this point.  I think if your going for the inflation bid at the moment, your better doing so in Japan where deflation is already heavily priced in and the new Government has limited experience to say the least and some terrible fiscal prudence.  Short JGBs further out on the curve......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

When is a free lunch not free - when it has to be paid for? Having dined sumptuously courtesy of Stimulis V1, the Fat Cats are now calling for Stimulis V2 to keep the party going. After all, it's only wafer thin......Capitalists at the fiscal trough of indulgence (Uncle Sam plays Mr Creosote)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlfcF1I5e_g

The problem is that they can't repay the debt without raising taxes AND cutting services; tax receipts are already 'behind the curve'. Gold as an inflation hedge - there just isn't enough money in the system to re-inflate to the point of making inflation a problem, money velocity is still zero in the real economy, the big money shufflers preferring to front run the stock market with their new best buddy gifts in the form of loans from the Fed. 

The only thing holding the USD together is the fear of collateral damage should it fail. Should the US government default on their debts then that is a possibility, after all, if they were a company they would be insolvent already. Congress just keeps raising the money printing limit to keep the charade going - the worlds greatest Ponzi scheme?


----------



## GumbyLearner

Uncle Festivus said:


> When is a free lunch not free - when it has to be paid for? Having dined sumptuously courtesy of Stimulis V1, the Fat Cats are now calling for Stimulis V2 to keep the party going. After all, it's only wafer thin......Capitalists at the fiscal trough of indulgence (Uncle Sam plays Mr Creosote)
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlfcF1I5e_g
> 
> The problem is that they can't repay the debt without raising taxes AND cutting services; tax receipts are already 'behind the curve'. Gold as an inflation hedge - there just isn't enough money in the system to re-inflate to the point of making inflation a problem, money velocity is still zero in the real economy, the big money shufflers preferring to front run the stock market with their new best buddy gifts in the form of loans from the Fed.
> 
> The only thing holding the USD together is the fear of collateral damage should it fail. Should the US government default on their debts then that is a possibility, after all, if they were a company they would be insolvent already. Congress just keeps raising the money printing limit to keep the charade going - the worlds greatest Ponzi scheme?




Big belly laugh  

Great link Unc.

Your observations are also analogous to the scene in Brewsters Millions, where Richard Pryor donates a million bucks to the scientist with a remote control iceberg on his desk.



Or yesterdays announcement of Fannie Mae getting a third bailout

Saturday August 8, 2009
Fannie Mae draws on US support after loss

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/8/business/4478449&sec=business

NEW YORK: Fannie Mae, the largest provider of US home mortgage funding, on Thursday reported a US$14.8bil quarterly net loss that it said would force it to go to the US Treasury trough a third time for money to stay in business.

The company noted a “significant uncertainty” in its long-term financial health in reporting its eighth consecutive quarterly loss, which illustrates its struggle to make money in the face of rising defaults and pressure to do more to stabilise the housing market.

Fannie Mae and rival Freddie Mac have become more crucial to the country’s housing system since 2007 as the financial crisis sealed off other sources of loan funding.

Here's another great link

Bernanke's billions - TOO BIG TO FAIL, NOT TOO SMALL TO BEG


----------



## explod

For those jawboning the direction of the US$ index my take is that it all looks like down from here.   But I am merely a trend follower.


----------



## explod

> MRC & Co
> 
> I've got a 6 month put with 800 strike on gold FWIW.





You are indeed brave, only time will tell.

Will be an interesting week, Bloomberg.com particularly optimistic that the problems are over.


----------



## Real1ty

MRC & Co said:


> Well well well, we have seen the USD/equity correlation break down IMO.




It's too early to say that it has broken and we need confirmation first. 

Having said that, i also get the feeling we maybe seeing the beginning of a $ rally and if so, there will be some brilliant opportunities for big profits to be made and it looks like you have backed your judgement early.

IF so, Gold will certainly weaken but i feel there will be more downside in Currencies and short term Oil, so that's where my shorting will be.

PS: Check out the shooting star on the GBPUSD weekly


----------



## MRC & Co

Real1ty said:


> IF so, Gold will certainly weaken but i feel there will be more downside in Currencies and short term Oil, so that's where my shorting will be.
> 
> PS: Check out the shooting star on the GBPUSD weekly




Long USD is effectively short other currencies (just have to pick which ones).

My worry on an oil short, is it may get an Asian growth story bid.  

Going to have a short equities encase the correlation does not break as a ratio spread.  But will toss the later to the curb if the correlation is difinitive.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> And back to the normal world, gold puts in another higher low this week.




Higher low explod???

All I can see on the daily chart is a lower high.... hmmmm, buddy it's best you stop looking at your charts upside down.


----------



## Sean K

>Apocalypto< said:


> Higher low explod???
> 
> All I can see on the daily chart is a lower high.... hmmmm, buddy it's best you stop looking at your charts upside down.



Well, it depends where you start the line doesn't it.


----------



## Ageo

MRC & Co said:


> I've got a 6 month put with 800 strike on gold FWIW.




Options on commodoties? please do explain more?

Platform? and any other info such as what commodities etc.....

I cannot find anywhere on how to trade coms over options.


thanks


----------



## >Apocalypto<

kennas said:


> Well, it depends where you start the line doesn't it.




that's true, I am just having some fun with Explod.


----------



## Sean K

>Apocalypto< said:


> that's true, I am just having some fun with Explod.



Ah, sorry. I missed the irony.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> Higher low explod???
> 
> All I can see on the daily chart is a lower high.... hmmmm, buddy it's best you stop looking at your charts upside down.




As a kid on the farm, Dad would say as we lined up a fence post, "that's near as dammit" and it would be, a good straight bit of fence at the end of the day.

That gold chart is near as dammit to a good pennant from your top to the bottom of October, roughly (nrsdammmnt) and she has to break one way or the other soon.   And did you get a load of that US$ index chart, if that's nrsdmmt then the gold break may be up.

you say Apo..dmit and cr.p 
.


----------



## roysolder

and well said explod,
                           more printing of money this week-cheap dunny paper anybody?


----------



## Tradesurfer

It is interesting that when EVERYONE (newsmedia) is saying there WILL BE inflation- does that mean that everyone can't be right?

As Explod mentioned (refering to trends)- just watch and pay attention to price trends. 

Until gold breaks out above 1040 its below resistance. Although is forming a pretty large triangle on the weekly chart that was posted in a prior post. Remember-to calculate targets take the distance between the top and bottom at the mouth of a triangle and draw that up or down form a breakout/violation.

I will have to check out the shooting star on the GBP/USD tonight


----------



## Agentm




----------



## solomon

Hi Agentm,

Ever since dipping out of ADI a few months back I've missed your input. Nice to have you on the gold forum.

Are Goldman and the others like them lumped in with the large speculators or the commercials? I know where they should be, but they might very well be in the commercials.

This article http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/and-then-theres-thismonday-july-27-2009/19452 suggests that the bullion banks recently went even shorter.

I remember reading somewhere that Goldman and like have been counted as hedgers having gained some exception or other from the relevant regulator.


----------



## Wysiwyg

As has been noted the range of consolidation is getting tighter and will break one way or the other in the next few months. It will be interesting to see if this continuation pattern in an uptrend evolves into a breakout to new highs. Best case scenario for continuation would be the stock market tanking and a flight to gold.  

All will be revealed in the ensuing months say what.


----------



## MRC & Co

Anyone else like the interest rate differential on the UST as opposed to the bund, the talk of QE in US being mopped up quicker than the ECB stealth QEP, or the fact EUR/USD is setting up for a technically perfect false break pattern......now add in the fact the USD was supressed by the recent 'risk trade' and is that a perfect storm or what for a long USD?  

Also got another short S&P at 1001 as some type of a hedge.  

Agentm, can't help on the oppie trade as I didn't put it on myself, it's with a team.  But I think it may have been options on futs through IB if that sounds right........


----------



## Buckeroo

Interesting piece on gold ownership in the US.

Cheers



> There’s a lot of Internet chatter these days about the possibility of the U.S. government seizing its citizens’ private gold holdings.
> 
> What are the chances?
> 
> Well, it’s always good to bear in mind that there is no telling what the government might do. It’s already doing things that were unthinkable just a few years ago. If President Obama believes there is political hay to be made from seizing your gold – or even if he sincerely thinks such a move would be “good for the country” – we’re sure he won’t hesitate to make the grab. After all, his favorite predecessor, Franklin Roosevelt, set the precedent.
> 
> Many Americans don’t even realize that private gold ownership was forbidden for forty years, but it was. The relevant edict is Presidential Executive Order 6102 of April 5, 1933, which begins:
> 
> Forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion and Gold Certificates By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5(b) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933, entitled
> 
> An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes,in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists,
> 
> I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations …


----------



## Uncle Festivus

MRC & Co said:


> Anyone else like the interest rate differential on the UST as opposed to the bund, the talk of QE in US being mopped up quicker than the ECB stealth QEP, or the fact EUR/USD is setting up for a technically perfect false break pattern......now add in the fact the USD was supressed by the recent 'risk trade' and is that a perfect storm or what for a long USD?
> 
> Also got another short S&P at 1001 as some type of a hedge.
> 
> Agentm, can't help on the oppie trade as I didn't put it on myself, it's with a team.  But I think it may have been options on futs through IB if that sounds right........




Lipstick on a pig? The US is just better at hiding their tracks? I'm not sure what the implications are for the USD with a failed auction, but it won't be pretty, as in 10yrT's yields? There are a couple of things happening that may indicate that 'the scheme' being run by 'the club' is a little shaky?

First is the 'change the rules & definitions' part of who are primary dealers. Then, if you follow the money trail, you see that the Fed then buy's back a generous proportion of the bonds/T's they just auctioned (see  OMO's and the usual denial of such practices by the insiders), creating the illusion that the auctions are well supported by overseas CB's. ($10Billion of these weekly auctions goes toward the weekly interest expense of US debt, or currently $500Billion per annum.)

Next, and the most telling, is the fall in volume on the NYSE over the last few days, not that it was anywhere near bull market levels to start with, having the futures manipulated by Goldman Sachs. 



> NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A sharp drop in U.S. stock market trading volume could signal a looming test of the year's lows or merely illustrate investor inactivity in a summer month, just ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement Wednesday.
> The diminished trade had overall volume on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday falling to just under 1.1 billion, down 25% from its three-week moving average.



Either way, short term the USD might put it's safe haven hat on again, no matter how illogical, so it doesn't look good for gold or gold equities, having failed to keep pace with the general market gains, and most likely will be eager participants in any general sell-off, as usual 

Smoke & mirrors, the end game get's closer.


----------



## MRC & Co

But currency plays are all relative.  Is the Eurozone or Japan in any better situation?  And no matter how much growth currencies or countries gain focus, there are no currencies anywhere close to these 3 at the present time.  

I would attribute lack of volume due to the summer months, coming into Fed and post the big figures and reactions end of last wk.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> But currency plays are all relative.  Is the Eurozone or Japan in any better situation?  And no matter how much growth currencies or countries gain focus, there are no currencies anywhere close to these 3 at the present time.
> 
> I would attribute lack of volume due to the summer months, coming into Fed and post the big figures and reactions end of last wk.




And what about the big ponzi, the fed buying their own Tbonds.   The little bit of cr.p between the western currencies will be seen as less than a ripple when it is found that few in the west can even service their debt, let alone pay.  

Have you ever thought of reading economists that are not attached to banks, government, the media or vested interests.


----------



## MRC & Co

Made a post, but really can't be bothered getting into it as I don't have the time (or it's better spent elsewhere).

GL.


----------



## Naked shorts

Explod, I have attached a chart of the S&P500 and spot gold.

Can you provide a reason why gold would correlate so well with the S&P?

I thought Gold was supposed to go down when the S&P goes up :bonk:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Naked shorts said:


> Explod, I have attached a chart of the S&P500 and spot gold.
> 
> Can you provide a reason why gold would correlate so well with the S&P?
> 
> I thought Gold was supposed to go down when the S&P goes up :bonk:




Inflation, but in reality, stagflation.



> Imports of goods and services rose 2.3% to $152.8 billion, the highest since January and the first increase since July 2008, but this mostly reflected inflation as import prices rose 3.2%. So-called real imports of goods, after adjusting for price changes, rose 0.1%, the Commerce Department reported.




More good news - let's buy!



> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. posted a budget deficit of $180.6 billion in July, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday, pushing the cumulative deficit so far this year up to *$1.26 trillion*. *Outlays were $332 billion in July*, the Treasury said, up 26% from last year. *Receipts were $151 billion in July*, down from $215 billion in June and down 6% from a year ago


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Made a post, but really can't be bothered getting into it as I don't have the time (or it's better spent elsewhere).
> 
> GL.




I am very sorry about my outburst last night.  It was unwarrented and out of order.

However it is very frustrating to see the affect that Wall St crapola has.  It has become over the top of late and even the sheeple of the US must recognise the penny dropping before long.   Even on Kitko we see commentaries on how bad and rediculous the entire ponzie has become.  Check out the latest from James Turk as an example on the stupendous debt of the US Government.

I will endeavour to post less and be more polite.

explod

oh and gold is bouncing around in a very tight range on that pennant, dollar falling again tonight.   Interesting times


----------



## MRC & Co

explod said:


> dollar falling again tonight.   Interesting times




Yes those completely left field German and French GDP figures today caught the market by surprise.

This should really be a good gauge of what is already priced into both currency and equity markets.


----------



## explod

Naked shorts said:


> Explod, I have attached a chart of the S&P500 and spot gold.
> 
> Can you provide a reason why gold would correlate so well with the S&P?
> 
> I thought Gold was supposed to go down when the S&P goes up :bonk:




I have never run gold against the S&P, the only thing that will have real impact on gold are currencies, pure and simple.  Paper money printing presses dilute value, a no brainer.   Gold may not go up much at all (he he), but nothing can dilute it.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

explod said:


> I have never run gold against the S&P, the only thing that will have real impact on gold are currencies, pure and simple.  Paper money printing presses dilute value, a no brainer.   Gold may not go up much at all (he he), but nothing can dilute it.




Surely gold is being diluted the whole time with new production - the pace of which is increasing.  Maybe the question is-  Is gold diluted at a faster pace than paper currency?


----------



## Naked shorts

explod said:


> Paper money printing presses dilute value, a no brainer.   Gold may not go up much at all (he he), but nothing can dilute it.




Well if your trying to capture inflation, why do you think holding gold is better then shorting T-Notes/T-Bonds?


----------



## brty

I'm invested in gold to a minor degree in $A, so basically a losing strategy recently. My position has basically been worst case scenario everything falls to pieces type hedge.

However I'm thinking right now, Here we go here we go, here we go. I actually hope I'm wrong despite having the long position 

brty


----------



## roysolder

just my opinion but i can,t see supply of gold keeping up with demand.
and btw explod, as a veteran poster i think you are entittled to hav little "out burst" from time to time especially from some of the dumb comments i,ve seen on here. gold doing very nicely 
just mvho


----------



## amory

there is all this tedious obsession with Gold.  is it a traditional thing?  Gold has always turned people's heads ... going by its recent performance & that of the innumerable goldstocks, it simply doesn't merit all this attention.  wish someone would start a Copper thread ... now there's a "precious metal" for you ... at least it would be of some practical use to all concerned.


----------



## Sean K

amory said:


> there is all this tedious obsession with Gold.  is it a traditional thing?  Gold has always turned people's heads ... going by its recent performance & that of the innumerable goldstocks, it simply doesn't merit all this attention.  wish someone would start a Copper thread ... now there's a "precious metal" for you ... at least it would be of some practical use to all concerned.



While there's a perception it's valuable, you'd be silly not to invest in it at the right time and in the right way.


----------



## Tradesurfer

Stuck in a range until proven otherwise


----------



## amory

... while Everything else, even ERA (& it's not as if the price of uranium was anything to write home about) is going sky-high!


----------



## GumbyLearner

amory said:


> ... while Everything else, even ERA (& it's not as if the price of uranium was anything to write home about) is going sky-high!




Just out of interest.
Do you have any holdings in bullion, ETF's or stocks Amory?


----------



## amory

... alright then - ERA not the best choice on the day.  but what about ANZ CEY LEI & CSL ... all in different industries, all of them in full acceleration!!

meanwhile, NCM down 35, LGL down 2 ... a pitiful blot on the ASX board.  during a week when the XAO gained 150 points.


----------



## GumbyLearner

amory said:


> ... alright then - ERA not the best choice on the day.  but what about ANZ CEY LEI & CSL ... all in different industries, all of them in full acceleration!!
> 
> meanwhile, NCM down 35, LGL down 2 ... a pitiful blot on the ASX board.  during a week when the XAO gained 150 points.




Maybe it's time to follow the herd then on the XAO! 

But there are billionaries out there hedging both ways. This guy made over $3 billion shorting US financials from late 2007.

Now he's buying paper gold and
168 million shares of Bank of America at the same time. 

http://wallstreetpit.com/9421-john-paulson-buys-168m-shrs-in-bank-of-america

I'm sure the gold ETF is just "worthless" insurance right.


----------



## amory

I am not claiming that it's time to do anything, GL.  but the shameful behavior of gold-stocks as against the Great Expectations touted by the 'experts' will take a long time to wipe from the collective memory of disgruntled traders worldwide.

any eventual rise in the Pog will be met with much distrust & cynicism.  until then, forget about, thanks very much.  pres Obama has no intention of allowing the USDollar to go into collapse mode ... a prerequisite for a gold advance.


----------



## GumbyLearner

amory said:


> I am not claiming that it's time to do anything, GL.  but the shameful behavior of gold-stocks as against the Great Expectations touted by the 'experts' will take a long time to wipe from the collective memory of disgruntled traders worldwide.
> 
> any eventual rise in the Pog will be met with much distrust & cynicism.  until then, forget about, thanks very much.  pres Obama has no intention of allowing the USDollar to go into collapse mode ... a prerequisite for a gold advance.




Would you prefer to trade it or hold it?

Even old US Fed creator Morgan considered it money.
Not as easily replicated though.

So I go back to my earlier point

Do you hold bullion, ETF's or stocks at present?


----------



## amory

Answer:  a few gold-stocks, dozing peacefully ... zzzzzzzzzz.
blissfully unaware of the turmoil all around them.

some LGL's ... lost in the fog .......

haven't got any "down-down-down-we-go" NCM's.  when do you think they'll be worth a punt?  closer to $20's ... or is that too soon?

anticipating the inevitable question:  would I short them?  No flippin' way, I wouldn't trust that treacherous garbage in either direction.


----------



## Real1ty

GumbyLearner said:


> Would you prefer to trade it or hold it?
> 
> Even old US Fed creator Morgan considered it money.
> Not as easily replicated though.
> 
> So I go back to my earlier point
> 
> Do you hold bullion, ETF's or stocks at present?




GL.

amory, or bash as he is affectionately known on other forums, is a perpetual gold basher and even more so. Jim Rogers.

Pretty sure he once received a tip from JR on LGL, lost money and never got over it.

Gold could hit $10,000.00 an ounce and he will find a way to bag it.

Having said that, i am no Gold bug, just filling in the blanks on our biased friend....


----------



## GumbyLearner

amory said:


> Answer:  a few gold-stocks, dozing peacefully ... zzzzzzzzzz.
> blissfully unaware of the turmoil all around them.
> 
> some LGL's ... lost in the fog .......
> 
> haven't got any "down-down-down-we-go" NCM's.  when do you think they'll be worth a punt?  closer to $20's ... or is that too soon?
> 
> anticipating the inevitable question:  would I short them?  No flippin' way, I wouldn't trust that treacherous garbage in either direction.




The best thing about NCM is their hedging and debt.
It's just horrendous in the current economic climate!


----------



## amory

Real1ty said:


> GL.
> 
> amory, or bash as he is affectionately known on other forums, is a perpetual gold basher and even more so. Jim Rogers.
> 
> Pretty sure he once received a tip from JR on LGL, lost money and never got over it.
> 
> Gold could hit $10,000.00 an ounce and he will find a way to bag it.
> 
> Having said that, i am no Gold bug, just filling in the blanks on our biased friend....




Jim Rogers?  never heard of him.  there is or was one Jim Sinclair ... he's lost all cred, he's not worthy of mention, that charlatan.

listen Reality ... or whatever handle you've used elsewhere ... there is no need for me to "bag Gold" that fast-asleep commodity & you know why not ... it's doing a perfectly good job of it all by itself alone!

but I must admit to feeling pity & contempt for those who still stand up for it & hold it in great esteem when everything else around it is going for its life ... for some obscure outdated reason to do with currency & stuff.

and I would like to remind you that all along & through the whole debacle where everyone thought the world as we know it is coming to an end, I was the only one who kept reminding all & sundry that gold cannot come good without a collapse of the dollar & that this will not happen because the Fed is smarter than the lot of you!

and those who reviled & ridiculed me then, are now laughing out the other side of their face ... that's if they were putting their money where their mouth is & which I doubt very much.  no one is that dumb, is my educated guess.

good night.


----------



## GumbyLearner

amory said:


> Jim Rogers?  never heard of him.  there is or was one Jim Sinclair ... he's lost all cred, he's not worthy of mention, that charlatan.
> 
> and I would like to remind you that all along & through the whole debacle where everyone thought the world as we know it is coming to an end, I was the only one who kept reminding all & sundry that gold cannot come good without a collapse of the dollar & that this will not happen because the Fed is smarter than the lot of you!
> 
> and those who reviled & ridiculed me then, are now laughing out the other side of their face ... that's if they were putting their money where their mouth is & which I doubt very much.  no one is that dumb, is my educated guess.
> 
> good night.





Until a party with a vested interest says.....wait for it........wait a minute.........sorry to keep you waiting...I apologize for the delay but.....
NO! That means NO! 

What do you mean NO?

We mean you owe us a lot of stuff...

SO WE SAY NO!

Couldn't possibly happen right?


----------



## GumbyLearner

March 1973 - How was the market looking then


----------



## amory

GumbyLearner said:


> Until a party with a vested interest says.....wait for it........wait a minute.........sorry to keep you waiting...I apologize for the delay but.....
> NO! That means NO!
> 
> What do you mean NO?
> 
> We mean you owe us a lot of stuff...
> 
> SO WE SAY NO!
> 
> Couldn't possibly happen right?




only because you profess to be replying to my post (which you quote) otherwise I wouldn't bother ... do you think you could try & explain in simple english what you are talking about???

something else has crossed my mind ... seeing that I am the only one with a clear understanding of the situation ... Gold is like a fighter who is tired & unable to take advantage of the openings because his punches cannot hurt a determined opponent ... the USD in this case.

even now, the dollar is far from its best.  but Gold, worn-out & weary & fighting above its weight on account of the great expectations, cannot land a glove on it.

I got no interest, vested or otherwise.  I describe it as I see it.  there is no need for silly insinuations, just simply prove me wrong!


----------



## explod

amory said:


> only because you profess to be replying to my post (which you quote) otherwise I wouldn't bother ... do you think you could try & explain in simple english what you are talking about???
> 
> something else has crossed my mind ... seeing that I am the only one with a clear understanding of the situation ... Gold is like a fighter who is tired & unable to take advantage of the openings because his punches cannot hurt a determined opponent ... the USD in this case.
> 
> even now, the dollar is far from its best.  but Gold, worn-out & weary & fighting above its weight on account of the great expectations, cannot land a glove on it.
> 
> I got no interest, vested or otherwise.  I describe it as I see it.  there is no need for silly insinuations, just simply prove me wrong!




The US$ index is at 79 and gold at 947.  When the US index was at this level in late 2008 gold was at around 800.   Gold is far from worn out and weary.

If you are serious about the conundrum of gold you could do no better than to read this entire gold thread.  You will find all of the answers.   There is a great deal to the gold as a currency story and more than can be adequately answered in a few lines in a post.

Gold has been a form of value exchange for more that 4,000 years, that kind of sentiment is ingrained.   It is a very small market as well so even a slight amount of increased interest will see the price go through the roof.

So do yourself a favour and read the thread and in a couple of days we can discuss further your questions.


----------



## amory

following your advice Explod ... went backwards quite a number of pages.  came across a good post by Nyden dated 19th June ... quote in part:

<< Just seems as though those that follow gold are always spouting for some big move which never seems to come. Yet, no matter what seems to happen in the world markets, in sentiment, and in the economy - gold doesn't seem to want to break $1000 again. How can any of you ignore that? How can so many people place such blind faith in a blooming unproductive yellow rock! It boggles the mind, and I despite how hard I try - I just cannot understand it. Then again, I don't understand those bible nuts either >>

that's two months ago.  since then, just about everything has gone thru the roof ... except gold.


----------



## explod

amory said:


> following your advice Explod ... went backwards quite a number of pages.
> 
> that's two months ago.  since then, just about everything has gone thru the roof ... except gold.





Think you will have to read a lot more yet and perhaps open your eyes to reality as well

Since 2001 gold has gone up 200%  in the last 12 months it is up nearly 15%

In fact it has been in a mega uptrend since 1969 and shows no sign of breaking down.

And I give no advice or make claims.   My posts are prefaced, I comment on what has taken place but the future always remains to be seen.  However the past has shown that gold compared to paper money has more than held its value and it would appear that this will continue.

Keep up that reading old son and get back in a few days, in fact it will probably take a week to read it all, not selectively but all of it objectively.


----------



## explod

Another higher low on the weekly this week, our pennant now in a very tight range of 947 to 965, gold pundits say a break upwards should occur towards the end of August, chart says it has to break one way or the other very soon.

(NB) Note well:  In this statment I make no predictions, I am an observer only and pass on only the facts as are available.


----------



## Beej

explod said:


> However the past has shown that gold compared to paper money has more than held its value and it would appear that this will continue.




Can't the same be said for ANY investment class though? I mean if the goal is just to beat "paper money" we are only talking there about beating the risk-free cash rate/return right? I think since 1969 that property of any sort and shares would also lay the exact same claim, and in fact both may well have out-performed gold dramatically over that period, in both capital growth and of course accumulated income through dividends and rent 

I think gold has it's place as a bit of a $US inflation hedge in an internationally biased diversified portfolio of different investment assets, but I don't subscribe to the "faith" held by many a serious gold-bug - especially when you look at Gold returns over the past 10 years in say $AU rather than just $US.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## explod

Beej said:


> I think gold has it's place as a bit of a $US inflation hedge in an internationally biased diversified portfolio of different investment assets, but I don't subscribe to the "faith" held by many a serious gold-bug - especially when you look at Gold returns over the past 10 years in say $AU rather than just $US.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej





Absolutely agree, I am diversified into many other investments also, so where's the problem.   Gold in my view is just another of the good ones, but not yet when measured against the past in overvalued territory.   Its trend has been steady, the housing market for instance seems to be rising exponentially, as did the dot.com and till recently the stock market.  Why are you against or single out gold for castigation.

I have no stubborn faith in gold at all, but for me, and I emphasise that, it is a part of my portfolio as a hedge, and it has so far done fine.

cheers explod


----------



## Beej

explod said:


> Absolutely agree, I am diversified into many other investments also, so where's the problem.   Gold in my view is just another of the good ones, but not yet when measured against the past in overvalued territory.   Its trend has been steady, the housing market for instance seems to be rising exponentially, as did the dot.com and till recently the stock market.  Why are you against or single out gold for castigation.
> 
> I have no stubborn faith in gold at all, but for me, and I emphasise that, it is a part of my portfolio as a hedge, and it has so far done fine.
> 
> cheers explod




Sounds eminently sensible!  

My only issue is with died-in-the-wool fiat currency hating one-eyed gold hoarding types. They remind of the guys that used to walk around the city with placards on their backs and chests stating "The End Is Nigh" and all that...... Putting all your eggs in one basket and then hoping gleefully for a catastrophic economic event that would wipe out the livelyhoods of 99% of the population of the country, just seems, well, wrong to me  And also naive - so I guess that's where gold cops some flak due to this "faithful" army of true believers that are always banging on about it in this manner.

Anyway too many red wines and enough said on the above topic by me for now! Will certainly be interesting to see where the POG heads from here; hard to tell as stated it seems very range bound, but there seem to be reasonable outlooks that could take it either way from here in the shorter term.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## amory

explod said:


> Another higher low on the weekly this week, our pennant now in a very tight range of 947 to 965, gold pundits say a break upwards should occur towards the end of August, chart says it has to break one way or the other very soon.
> 
> (NB) Note well:  In this statment I make no predictions, I am an observer only and pass on only the facts as are available.




funny how you talk facts as you see them & I talk facts as I see them ... must be two different sets of facts out there.

talk down at me all you want Explod ... anyone holding lots of gold stocks at this point in time (is there any other?) would have to be asking WTF is going on????


----------



## GumbyLearner

amory said:


> only because you profess to be replying to my post (which you quote) otherwise I wouldn't bother ... do you think you could try & explain in simple english what you are talking about???




In simple English this bloke may help

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...diggers-pd20090817-UZ566?OpenDocument&src=sph

Stephen Bartholomeusz
17 Aug, 2009

*Good-time gold diggers*

Newcrest Mining enters the post-crisis period in as good a shape as any resource company in the globe. The challenge for Ian Smith and his team will be to use the financial firepower they have accumulated to add to the surging organic growth within *Newcrest’s portfolio of world class gold operations.*

While the group’s underlying earnings fell marginally, with lower output from the Cadia Valley mines in NSW offset by higher prices, *Newcrest generated over $1 billion of cash flow from its operations* and, thanks to a capital raising of nearly $800 million earlier this year, has *a virtually debt-free balance sheet.*

With reserves rising, production costs falling and capital expenditure having peaked, Newcrest is moving into what should be a golden era. It continues to forecast a 40 per cent increase in gold production over the next five years and a 30 per cent increase in copper output. It also re-confirmed its forecast of a 30 per cent reduction in cash costs per ounce over that same period.

In a sector where the major players are struggling to offset reserves depletion with new resources, Newcrest *lifted its gold reserves seven per cent and its copper reserves 13 per cent.* Its *gold resources rose 13 per cent and copper 56 per cent* and there is substantial latent potential in its portfolio of established and emerging projects. 

Is that simple enough amory?


----------



## Wysiwyg

GumbyLearner said:


> In simple English this bloke may help




It`s funny how our perception is variable dependant upon ownership or not. I see a story of par results and future hopes. Probably another Lihir.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Wysiwyg said:


> It`s funny how our perception is variable dependant upon ownership or not. I see a story of par results and future hopes. Probably another Lihir.




No doubt a lot of the variability of perception is dependent on ownership. No-one wants to back a loser.

The key with Newcrest is they are World Top Ten. The only one of the top ten that can grow their resource base organically without needed to pursue acquisitions to grow their base. Also, geo-politically most of there assets are based in Oz. Unlike most of the majors.

Lihir's main resource is next door to a volcano and after that Africa. Plus they just ditched a rightdown with Ballarat.

NCM is a solid-stable smart low-cost growing producer. This coming year they will have a good exposure to silver as well. They also recently discovered a 170,000t Tungsten deposit right next door to Telfer. 

So they are not just some one-trick pony for any goldbug dummy to invest in.

Very well managed with 2% gearing! Are there any other major Aussie resource plays with that kind of gearing?  What about Rio Tinto? 

Anyway Ramp over. Today's 85% profit increase was a great announcement for the company.

Still Hold

dyor


----------



## hitmanlam

explod said:


> Another higher low on the weekly this week, our pennant now in a very tight range of 947 to 965, gold pundits say a break upwards should occur towards the end of August, chart says it has to break one way or the other very soon.
> 
> (NB) Note well:  In this statment I make no predictions, I am an observer only and pass on only the facts as are available.





Looks like it broke down.


----------



## GumbyLearner

hitmanlam said:


> Looks like it broke down.




How?

Gold has traded above $900 an ounce for almost 2 years now.

Goodbye bit-part player HitManLam! :goodnight


----------



## GumbyLearner

hitmanlam said:


> Looks like it broke down.




bring it!  

http://books.google.com/books?id=zF...ge&q=indoor management rule australia&f=false


----------



## Tradesurfer

I trade price first and a technician. But something an economist said to me recently caught my interest: what he said was that nations may have to sell gold to meet debt obligations. 

Haven't thought of that....

But from a technical level- gold just can't get above the old highs and now touching some uptrending higher lows


----------



## explod

From Mineweb



> NEW ORLEANS  -
> 
> 
> 
> The slow trading months of summer are usually a time when gold prices decline, but economic analysts at Blanchard and Company, America's largest precious metals investment firm, say that indicators this year have them believing the metal is poised for a big breakout by the end of the third quarter.
> 
> Specifically, inflation, possible hyper-inflation, dollar weakness, and supply/demand and investor demand fundamentals are all positive for the price of gold toward the end of the summer, says Donald W. Doyle, Chairman and CEO of Blanchard and Company.
> 
> While gold remains range bound, it does so at levels above $900 per ounce, which Doyle says he sees as a springboard to greater price gains, and even new record highs, through the remainder of the year - and beyond.
> 
> "Gold is performing strongly at the same time the stock market is making a mild rally and as the dollar continues to stay at a level that we consider to be inordinately high," Doyle says. "Typically, gold would be declining - but that's not happening, and there are solid reasons why."
> 
> Doyle says demand is central to gold's current sustained high price levels, with Chinese and Russian central banks adding to their holdings and investor demand continuing at record levels.
> 
> "The fundamentals for gold, and particularly investment demand, are very strong," Doyle says. "Sales of gold by the U.S. Mint, which have always been a good proxy for U.S. investment demand, are approaching those of all of 2008 - a banner year for gold - and it's only the beginning of August."
> 
> Through July of 2009, the U.S. Mint has sold 756,500 ounces of gold as compared to 247,500 ounces through July 2008 - an increase of more than 300 percent for the same time period. The Mint sold 860,500 ounces of gold during all of 2008.
> 
> The other catalyst for gold's future price rise, Doyle says, is the likelihood of inflation and dollar weakness, both of which are very real considering the record amounts of liquidity and stimulus that are making their way into the global economy.
> 
> "For some time now, we have been in the middle of a disinflationary recession, hardly a propitious time for gold to boom," Doyle says. "However, despite the short-term outlook for inflation, the longer-term picture looks to be just the opposite, particularly in the wake of record government deficits and extraordinary easing in monetary policy."
> 
> Doyle also says the case for gold now is being made by people who, in the past, recommended only stocks. In Merrill Lynch's "Metals Strategist," Merrill predicts that the unintended consequence of the bailouts will be a return of inflationary pressures to the commodity markets. If the Fed fails to keep foreign capital interested in financing its twin deficits, the U.S. dollar could spiral downward, providing strong support to commodity prices. The weaker dollar will then help gold break through to new record price levels of $1200-$1500 per ounce.
> 
> "Morgan Stanley's analysts are divided on which threat is worse for the global economy, deflation or inflation, but say that gold is a safe bet in either outcome," Doyle noted. "Morgan Stanley looked at the possibility of hyperinflation hitting the U.S., and their conclusion is an interesting one."


----------



## Ato

What do people think of Jim Sinclair? A couple of people I know recommend him, and while I tend to agree with alot of what he says, he seems a little over the top, and is sometimes quite incomprehensible. How have his predictions gone in the past?


----------



## explod

Ato said:


> What do people think of Jim Sinclair? A couple of people I know recommend him, and while I tend to agree with alot of what he says, he seems a little over the top, and is sometimes quite incomprehensible. How have his predictions gone in the past?




Yes he is extreme to say the least but some contributors on his site I follow.  Trader Dan Norcin seems to be in touch on the bullion trading floor.   You just have to sift each for what you can pick up.

I like James Turk and the Aden Sisters on Kitco, they put out a free blurb each about once a month.


----------



## M34N

explod, I'm not sure if you've answered this before, but I know you are long gold and have been for some years now, but are you holding any gold stocks?

Interested to know what some people here think about the falling gold stocks here (in particular our biggest NCM and LGL) and the relative stability of those on the US HUI/XAU indexes (like NEM, AU and KGC) and the gold price being relatively steady in $US terms. Interesting divergence me-thinks, buying opportunity here or a warning of things to come?


----------



## explod

M34N said:


> explod, I'm not sure if you've answered this before, but I know you are long gold and have been for some years now, but are you holding any gold stocks?
> 
> Interested to know what some people here think about the falling gold stocks here (in particular our biggest NCM and LGL) and the relative stability of those on the US HUI/XAU indexes (like NEM, AU and KGC) and the gold price being relatively steady in $US terms. Interesting divergence me-thinks, buying opportunity here or a warning of things to come?




I hold only a small parcel of Oceana Gold (OGC)  I have RNG in the stock tipping but that is only a fun thing.   I trade other stocks based on t/a, mainly the energy sector, with time frames of only a week or two.   It seems to me that most Gold Companies run on self interest with shareholders the last consideration.

My gold/silver position is very long term in physical.  That also includes coins.

cheers explod


----------



## amory

explod said:


> Yes he is extreme to say the least but some contributors on his site I follow.  Trader Dan Norcin seems to be in touch on the bullion trading floor.   You just have to sift each for what you can pick up.
> 
> I like James Turk and the Aden Sisters on Kitco, they put out a free blurb each about once a month.




my opinion on Jimbo would be widely known by now ... I won't repeat it.  suffice to say that there was a time when he instructed staff to only let him read the occasional email that was favorable ... judging by the disjointed senseless articles on his website he must have been on the verge of a nervous breakdown.

however, credit where credit is due.  recently, he gave the dollar 123 days before total collapse ... now it seems he is still keeping count & I quote:

_<< ....  As a result of the above I see 81 days left for the US dollar.

The gold price has but one criteria and that is the US dollar. Armstrong and Alf are correct on the levels awaiting the gold price. 

I know $1224 and $1650 are certain.....>>_

which takes us to sometime in november.  Jimbo, Jimbo ... this better be good!


----------



## explod

M34N said:


> and the relative stability of those on the US HUI/XAU indexes (like NEM, AU and KGC) and the gold price being relatively steady in $US terms. Interesting divergence me-thinks, buying opportunity here or a warning of things to come?





Soirry, just realised I did not cover all your questions.   I only follow ASX stocks but I have always tracjed the HUI index, it together with the silver price and the US dollar give good indications of moves within a day or so for the gold price.

At the moment HUI struggling a bit, US dollar only slightly down and silver languishing, so would be surpriesed to see much movement in gold this week.   But am often wrong.


----------



## explod

US$ index falling significantly tonight, interesting that HUI climbed a bit last night with litle response from gold yet.

Could be interesting if index drops below support at aoubt 77.60, with markets a bit shakey a drop in the dollar as well could set up a new turn of events perhaps.   A charachteristic the last year or so has been the greenback as a refuge.


----------



## explod

There are usually no indicators on a Monday, tonight so far is looking very different.   

On any substantive rise in the gold price silver usually shows the way.  It is up .40cents US today and the US dollar index as at 7.am US time showing a typical dip which usually preciptates a down dollar day.   The gold price firming but not a lot so it is too early to call.

The US market opening in 20 minutes will tell the real tale.  Will this week be the real break.?

We will soon see, and of course from this point it could be savaged a long way down.


----------



## wayneL

There is a well known seasonal bull that runs from around sept 9 to about the 1st week of oct.

There is also an *almost* free money non seasonal (For those who've read Stu Johnstons book) coming up.


----------



## moXJO

Someone was beeping on about China's citizens being able to invest in silver again or something. Or was that just another ramp. I should have probably paid attention.


----------



## Ageo

wayneL said:


> There is also an *almost* free money non seasonal (For those who've read Stu Johnstons book) coming up.




Not familiar with this 1, must go back to my textbooks.....


The problem with this seasonal bull will be our dollar wiping out any gains.

Only time will tell


----------



## wayneL

Ageo said:


> Not familiar with this 1, must go back to my textbooks.....
> 
> 
> The problem with this seasonal bull will be our dollar wiping out any gains.
> 
> Only time will tell



The non-seasonal won't be in any textbook, but the book mentioned describes the method. You just need a historical database (from whence the seasonal trades come from).

As far as the AUD/USD factor, that is the advantage of trading on margin, even if not using the leverage available. There is an intrinsic currency hedge in not having to cough up the AUD for 95% of the trade.


----------



## explod

Good charts on the current state of play on the following link.   Of note also, in late trade on New York, dollar dropped a fair bit on job numbers.  Such info and reaction in the past has seen it continue into the next session so would not be surprised to see gold break upwards by the close of trade in the morning.

the link:   www.usagold.com/cpmforum/?=1872880


cheers explod


----------



## amory

Gold going up ... now that is News!!!  

but for my money, give me Copper any time ... or even light-as-a-feather Lead!  Gold is for the sort of people who join cults where they practise mass suicide ... JimSinclair the leader ... anyone second the nomination?


----------



## explod

On the weekly, gold has closed for the last six weeks at very close to US$950, any slight drop brings in the bulls and any approach at 960 the bears.  The lowest daily close was 930.    In all my observations since 2004 I have not seen such a narrow long sideways movement, if you could call it that.

The HUI index is also range bound.   The US dollar in the same period has dropped about 1.5%

Where we are going from hear is anyones guess but it does reflect the uncertainty across most markets.   Is this perhaps a realisation that just maybe there are no green shoots.   I would be surprised if something does not break soon.

Any other takes ?


----------



## roysolder

amory- what are you doing on this thread ?
i have,nt see one positive reply from you.explod always backs his opinions with facts!


----------



## Trembling Hand

roysolder said:


> amory- what are you doing on this thread ?
> i have,nt see one positive reply from you.explod always backs his opinions with facts!




Actually I will challenge that. Explod often spews out lines about derivatives and manipulation of various things that cannot be supported with measurable facts at best. And I have argued are just wrong on a few occasions.


----------



## roysolder

is,nt this forum about help and support,not bagging each other?


----------



## Trembling Hand

roysolder said:


> is,nt this forum about help and support,not bagging each other?




Something stated as a fact that isn't is not helpful.

Having only one point of veiw is not helpful.


----------



## refined silver

Gold breakout # 1,357 now in progress.

Whether this one lasts for 5 mins, 5 days, or much longer is anyones guess.


----------



## Gekko

Resistance annihilated. Looking to test $1000 in this run. If it holds $1000, then all bets are off. Shorts will be the one's annihilated.


----------



## wayneL

Gekko said:


> Shorts will be the one's annihilated.




Maybe they'll just exit?


----------



## wayneL

I'm in the bull camp and positioned for upside, but not getting too excited yet.

There is the small matter of a triangle to break out of yet.


----------



## refined silver

wayneL said:


> Maybe they'll just exit?




They will, but my guess is $1250-1300 before they've all squeezed through the door.

Thats assuming of course that this breakout does end up taking out $1000 

:bite:


----------



## wayneL

refined silver said:


> They will, but my guess is $1250-1300 before they've all squeezed through the door.
> 
> Thats assuming of course that this breakout does end up taking out $1000
> 
> :bite:




Most of the shorts are commercials, so a squeeze might not be applicable


----------



## cuttlefish

seriously though, when the time comes to deliver there really isn't much gold is there? or is there?   I suspect it's easier to deliver USD if it comes to the crunch - and if you're stuck for USD you can always ask for more  (please sir ...can i?).


----------



## refined silver

wayneL said:


> Most of the shorts are commercials, so a squeeze might not be applicable




True. And they are backed by the resources of the US govt.

However in the 70s the commercial shorts thought they were still trading against the fringe gold bugs, and didn't perceive when the rules had changed and they had Central Bank buying on the other side ot the trade and they got creamed. The CBs had been sellers til the mid to late 70s and then became buyers. The same is happening today as China and other BRIC CBs have become buyers, and EU Banks slow or stop selling.


----------



## wayneL

As I mentioned before, a seasonal bull coming up too.


----------



## roysolder

good on ya waynl-spot on the money!gold 977.25 up 22 bucks over night.
don,t understand what happened to gold/silver ratio?


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> I'm in the bull camp and positioned for upside, but not getting too excited yet.
> 
> There is the small matter of a triangle to break out of yet.



OMG! Wayne posted a chart! 

Looks prospective to break up doesn't it. 

But, there's been a few false starts.


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> OMG! Wayne posted a chart!
> 
> Looks prospective to break up doesn't it.
> 
> But, there's been a few false starts.





Go way, sometimes Kennas, you're just like an old tart.  (Course I am an old fart)

This break out of the pennant is a very significant one.  The gloom and doom fundamentals kicking in as well.   Said it would take the breath away, well I reckon we aint seen nuthin yet.


----------



## Trembling Hand

False break anyone? Of course this time it could be different.



cuttlefish said:


> seriously though, when the time comes to deliver there really isn't much gold is there? or is there?




Cuttlefish I would not use that one to base a decision on. Its the same for all futures in the world. Futures contracts outstanding NEVER = physical.

Its a favourite of the tin hat brigade but its BS. Just like the furphy of adding up all the derivatives contract value together and saying there is 872,000,000 trill dollars or whatever the latest is.


----------



## lasty

Trembling Hand said:


> False break anyone? Of course this time it could be different.
> 
> 
> 
> Cuttlefish I would not use that one to base a decision on. Its the same for all futures in the world. Futures contracts outstanding NEVER = physical.
> 
> Its a favourite of the tin hat brigade but its BS. Just like the furphy of adding up all the derivatives contract value together and saying there is 872,000,000 trill dollars or whatever the latest is.




There is always supply at a price.


----------



## Ageo

Ageo said:


> It needs to set itself up for the sept/oct run which should push over the 1300 mark.




Could i be right for once????? eek:

Anything over 1200AU should be traded with caution! 


P.S Refiners have bumped their spread today, so that means only 1 thing (price movement) but the only question is which way from here?


----------



## swm79

Aussie dollar gold price is breaking out of the trend


----------



## explod

swm79 said:


> Aussie dollar gold price is breaking out of the trend




And that is a part of it all, the old relic has sentimental followers (call them fools or what you will) but when the sentiment for gold winds up at a time when most other things in the financial world are looking dogy then this sentiment is predicted to be something to behold.  Aussie dollar or no aussie dollar.

Worth googling gold and its history for background and references to other takes.


----------



## weatherbill

alot of manipulation int he gold market by the powers that be, but seem slik ehti sis a reaction from chinese saying they can screw the banks on their contracts. I expect it to come down again


----------



## jonojpsg

GOld up and over that triangle now - $983.  Let's see if it will push up and test the big three zeros tonight?!  Am ready and waiting

Oh, and if you take the chart back to 2008 there is a bigger triangle that this is breaking out of as well, we're right near the pointy end so it's looking like the right time at least.


----------



## explod

jonojpsg said:


> Oh, and if you take the chart back to 2008 there is a bigger triangle that this is breaking out of as well, we're right near the pointy end so it's looking like the right time at least.




In addition to your observations, the lst time gold broke a long pennant was about Sept 07, from that point over 12 months the price rose to its first hit at US1000     Extrapolated forward we would see 1500 in the next 12 months, a lot of pundits are pointing to the 1200 plus.

Will be interesting to see if it repeats,

Silver too in the last 6 hours has broken a similar pennat.

However do not be surprised at a big dump on the comex, typically this has happened many times when a lot of interest builds up


----------



## Naked shorts

weatherbill said:


> but seem slik ehti sis a




Lkjdsf oiuslk uy nvldsf piud?


----------



## Cartman

Naked shorts said:


> Lkjdsf oiuslk uy nvldsf piud?




lol ----- or spelt backwards --- lol


----------



## LeeTV

*Gold shines in September, analysis of 20 years' data shows
Record contrasts with that of stocks; prior to 1988, gold didn't do as well*

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-shines-in-september-historical-record-shows-2009-09-01

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold prices typically rise in September, an analysis of the historical record shows, as the start of holiday seasons in the world's biggest gold-consuming countries tends to drive up demand. 

Gold made gains for the past 16 out of 20 Septembers. That's a better track record than any other month of the year, a MarketWatch analysis of gold prices measured by the London fixing showed. 

Since 1988, this global benchmark for gold prices gained an average 3.4% from the end of August to the end of September. It rose more than 5% in September in the past seven out of 20 years. 

Gold's recent tendency to do well in September contrasts with what happens in equity markets. September historically has been bad for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on average fell 1.2% in September since 1896, in contrast to an average gain of 0.7% for all other months. See related story. 

"September has been the best time for gold in terms of its month-over-month price appreciation," said Frank Holmes, chief executive officer at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages funds such as the $200 million Gold and Precious Metals Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!userx (USERX 13.41, +0.90, +7.19%) . 

The London gold fixing jumped 20% in 1999, 11% in 2007, and 9% in 2005. Gold rose 6.2% in September last year. But it lost in September of 2006, 1996, 1993, and 1988. 

On Tuesday, gold prices fell slightly to $955 an ounce in London. In futures trading, December gold was almost flat at $953.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Read daily commodities reports. 

Gold tends to do well in September because it's the run-up to several events that can drive up gold consumption. 

Jewelry makers start to stock gold ahead of October's Diwali, one of India's most important religious festivals. September also kicks off the post-monsoon wedding season in India, the world's biggest gold consumer. 

Jewelry makers also stock gold in September ahead of the holy month of Ramadan in Muslim countries such as the United Arab Emirates. The end of Ramadan is the Eid ul-Fitr holiday, a time for celebration and gift-giving. 

Gold demand in China, the world's second-biggest consumer, also tends to rise in the months following the Oct. 1 National Day to the Chinese New Year in January or February. 

"Based on the long-term record, this may represent a good time for investors who want to establish or add to a gold or gold-stock positions in advance of seasonal demand growth," Holmes said. 

Still, the bet on September remains risky. Although gold has performed well in the past 20 Septembers, its earlier performance wasn't as good. In the 16 years after the U.S. de-pegged the dollar from gold in 1971, gold ended lower for eight of those Septembers. 

Seasonal surge? 
A global recession has limited jewelry purchases this year, capping gold's gains. Plus, recent signs of an economic recovery have slowed demand for gold as an investment. Now, the precious metal may get a jumpstart from seasonal jewelry purchases.

Gold prices, as gauged by the London gold fixing, have gained 10% in the first eight months of the year, behind silver's 35% jump. Silver outshined gold thanks to its double use as both an inflation hedge and industrial material. See related story. 

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!gld/quotes/nls/gld (GLD 97.72, +1.53, +1.59%) , the biggest gold exchange-traded fund, have been falling recently, weighed on by a stronger dollar. Investors, sensing a potential economic recovery, also opted for riskier assets. 

September may bring new hope to gold investors, and "there is potential for a strong recovery in demand at some stage," said the World Gold Council, a gold-mining industry group, in a recent report. 

"The upcoming Diwali festival and wedding season should help to underpin a seasonal improvement over the remainder of 2009." 

In China, gold jewelry demand increased 6% in the second quarter, "largely attributable to still healthy rates of economic growth," the WGC said. Read more on second-quarter gold trends. 

This year's demand from the jewelry sector has remained particularly sluggish as the global economic downturn curbed consumers' appetite for luxuries. In India, gold demand for jewelry production slumped 52% in the first quarter compared with a year ago in India, and 31% in the second quarter, according to the WGC. 

India doubled its gold imports tax in the 2009-2010 budget year, a move some analysts said could curb the country's gold demand. 

In the second quarter, global gold demand from jewelry was 22% lower than a year ago. 

"The average potential Indian gold buyer might have completely different buying priorities this year," said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals Inc., in an email interview. "At the end of the day, gold is - even in India - a discretionary and luxury purchase." 

"Water shortages, food scarcity, and lack of energy do not make for eager gold shoppers - especially with the yellow metal's price being within 10% of its all-time high." 

The portion of gold demand from the jewelry sector has also been falling in the past 10 years, while investment demand has been rising. Jewelry demand accounted for 80% of total gold consumption in 1999, according to GFMS Ltd., a London-based precious metals consultancy. In 2008, it accounted for less than 60%.

_Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York._


----------



## weatherbill

seems like many fridays, the price tops and then the follwoing monday it drops....

looks like we may break the $1200 tomorrow


----------



## cuttlefish

yee haw! giddy up!  to da moooon! and other immature ranting.   

Sailing close to the sun now ... will its feathers get burnt or will it push on through.


----------



## explod

cuttlefish said:


> yee haw! giddy up!  to da moooon! and other immature ranting.
> 
> Sailing close to the sun now ... will its feathers get burnt or will it push on through.




Friday trade on comex is usually down.  We still have a ways to play for clear sky, on the long term top line of the pennant we need a close and then a clear break above US$2005   .

US$ index range bound so we wait and see.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Friday trade on comex is usually down. .




Only 2 out of the last 6 Fridays have been down. You would expect price action to be in the direction of the weekly trend come the last day. That being said she is a little toppy here.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Only 2 out of the last 6 Fridays have been down. You would expect price action to be in the direction of the weekly trend come the last day. That being said she is a little toppy here.




Yes t/h, I was thinking of the many times past when we were very stoked up at the end of the week,  it seems to be (and yes I have become a bit paranoid) that when the audience is listening, everyone starting to watch, it crashes and crushes.

We will see.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Here's Schiff's latest take on Gold

http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1252074153.php


----------



## explod

> ...As I said yesterday morning... The real winners of the day were the Precious Metals... It could be repeated this morning too! And most likely Monday morning too! Gold is taking off in flight right now, and if you blinked the last two days, you've missed it! It's off about $3 bucks this morning, but give it a chance to have investors see it heading to $1,000 again!
> 
> The thing I think you need to think about here is the fact that there are tons, and tons of money sitting in bank accounts right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that money begin to make its way toward Gold purchases! This is normal isn't it? I mean, an asset class, like Precious Metals / Gold, begins to move higher, and then the money begins chasing the price higher and higher... There's an old saying about how you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink... That's how I feel about Gold... I've have given the wink and nod for so many years about Gold... But I can't make you buy it!
> ...




From Chuck Butler overnight on Everbank, his blurb is more currency trading so does not talk on gold often.

If the price consolidates here and can hold till US trading Teusday then we may be able to get excited next week.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like a nice breakout from the triangley thing, will be interesting to see how the $1000 ish mark goes now.

Will Indians stop buying it because it's getting so expensive? Is this sort of thing a factor? Or, will investment buying be a stronger drive?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Looks like a nice breakout from the triangley thing, will be interesting to see how the $1000 ish mark goes now.
> 
> Will Indians stop buying it because it's getting so expensive? Is this sort of thing a factor? Or, will investment buying be a stronger drive?




Interesting that the Indian factor is continually trotted out.  It is now only about 14% of the gold market demand.   The main buying over the last two or three years has come from bar hoarding for investment, fabricators have found it hard to keep up to demand for some 12 months now.   

The videa of Gumby's says a great deal, the growing China market alone is going to set of a cracker IMHO

However only time will tell but next week will certainly be interesting.  This is actually the fifth time that we have been at around this price level.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Interesting that the Indian factor is continually trotted out.



I meant India as an example of jewelery buying. I think they are the biggest, then ... 

Any idea how much that makes up the market, in total? Is it an _overall_ factor in gold demand?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> I meant India as an example of jewelery buying. I think they are the biggest, then ...
> 
> Any idea how much that makes up the market, in total? Is it an _overall_ factor in gold demand?




It used to be but not now.   Ageo would be able to put a precise break up on it.

He's probably off to the regional scrap markets for the weekend.


----------



## strategist

*GOLD*

H4 graph
    The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940.

   That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974.
2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.








Daily graph (from 09.06.09)
   The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940.

   That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974.
2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940. 







Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)
   The gold rose above level 977 (above the higher bound of “triangle” figure), which speaks that the market is supposed to approach target level 1115 soon. There is a resistance on the way up, level 1024 (“K” trend line), which the market will need to pass. So, while we’re trading under 1024, there is a probability of drop to level 990–977. If the gold eventually rises above 1024, there will be no obstacles on the way to 1115.
   Alternatively, in case the gold drops beow level 940 (breaks the “C” trend line), it will get to level 863.


----------



## GumbyLearner

I think $1000, the miracle 4 digit rise will happen tonight without US markets open. 

Any thoughts/predictions?

Just my opinion 

DYOR


----------



## wayneL

The "official" seasonal bull starts on the 9th. Maybe that will push it over the top.


----------



## GumbyLearner

wayneL said:


> The "official" seasonal bull starts on the 9th. Maybe that will push it over the top.




Yes WayneL. The seasonals will have a say considering gold has been down in the doldrums during the Northern Hemisphere summer NOT!

I'm waiting in anticipation of the inevitable.

Where's amory?

It just wouldn't be right to crack the physical and/or aussie producer stocks and all without him being present.


----------



## weatherbill

I think Gold gets a bit of a sell of monday. I think it does a dip after the announcements come out of a commercial real estate problem. Spike then dip, like last year


----------



## GumbyLearner

weatherbill said:


> I think Gold gets a bit of a sell of monday. I think it does a dip after the announcements come out of a commercial real estate problem. Spike then dip, like last year




Well of course Weatherbill, real commods are toast!


----------



## roysolder

gumbyleaner you crack me up-you took the words out of my mouth "wheres amory"
explod has been very quiet (old and wise i guess) i know he would say its a little too soon to be celebrating


----------



## explod

roysolder said:


> gumbyleaner you crack me up-you took the words out of my mouth "wheres amory"
> explod has been very quiet (old and wise i guess) i know he would say its a little too soon to be celebrating




Thanks for the plug there Royboy, not sure about the wise bit.

However gold is poised this time I think, we have had some consolidation at a level not seen before.  As always the US$ index is the key.  There is a considerable tussell between bulls and bears at the 78 level (for some weeks now), a break through that to below 77.50 and then the party will be on as next support for the index is around 76.00


----------



## roysolder

explod- with china encouraging their people to buy gold and the us  say save save save is there gonna be enough gold to go around?just kidding


----------



## explod

roysolder said:


> explod- with china encouraging their people to buy gold and the us  say save save save is there gonna be enough gold to go around?just kidding




Well that 's what us long term gold bugs are hoping, only time and the price will tell.

And sorry Roysolder for the error on you name in the last post.  Trying to drop you in size pal.

Notice your OGC firming back up, do you live anywhere near to the mine itself.


----------



## roysolder

no problem explod,i actually like the royboy at my ripe old age-to answer you question regarding my proximity to ogc ,s mine i,m just licking the dirt off my tongue as we speek lol.
you know when you find a little chunk of gold or a gem it just automatically go,s right in your mouth to clean it


----------



## explod

Well, we have gone past the grand, us$1001.20 as of now.   Just have to see what the comex boys think, fresh back from their labor day holiday.  If it holds through that then we just may have something for the rest of the week.


----------



## explod

roysolder said:


> no problem explod,i actually like the royboy at my ripe old age-to answer you question regarding my proximity to ogc ,s mine i,m just licking the dirt off my tongue as we speek lol.
> you know when you find a little chunk of gold or a gem it just automatically go,s right in your mouth to clean it





Have heard that it you swallow the stuff and stay on the high fibre you can accumulate a bit at the bottom of the bowl, gold that is.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gents I know you are all very excited but its actually lagging everything else. 

Sure there's some stops that are going to be taken here but it is just playing catch up.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Gents I know you are all very excited but its actually lagging everything else.
> 
> Sure there's some stops that are going to be taken here but it is just playing catch up.




Who's getting excited, we have to at least have a close above the all time intraday high, from memory around 1031

I spose to someone who does not understand that some people only trade a small portion of thier portfolio and have most of the rest in assets that will not be eaten away its a bit hard.  That's because some of us think armageddon will come, not sure when but have the powder dry.


----------



## roysolder

well that day is near explod-it will be soon  i,ll bear my bot bot in a tutu on asf  if it never arrives in 2009
( i hope you all don,t remind me of that comment -happy new year yippy)


----------



## Nyden

And, now what? Gold going to flounder around $1000 for another 2 months, whilst the AUD approaches parity?


----------



## Awesomandy

Might be around 1200 in a few months time, if my drawing is of any guidance.


----------



## Naked shorts

Gold 30,000 by 2012.


----------



## wayneL

Naked shorts said:


> Gold 30,000 by 2012.




And a loaf of bread $1,500.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

wayneL said:


> And a loaf of bread $1,500.




Forget gold, I'm going long on bread.


----------



## cuttlefish

Forget gold _and _bread,  I'm going long on wheelbarrows.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> Forget gold _and _bread,  I'm going long on wheelbarrows.




Xactly!! 

The funny thing about this gold run is that the bugs are again going to be wrong. We are not going to get hyper inflation or the collapse of the world. Gold is getting dragged up in a bull equities run.

They couldn't of been more wrong 

So far.


----------



## cuttlefish

Don't worry TH ... I'm still well and truly long on gold  - just going to add wheelbarrows to the mix   

I'm not about to get out when the party has just started!


----------



## refined silver

Trembling Hand said:


> Xactly!!
> 
> The funny thing about this gold run is that the bugs are again going to be wrong. We are not going to get hyper inflation or the collapse of the world. Gold is getting dragged up in a bull equities run.
> 
> They couldn't of been more wrong
> 
> So far.




TH, just curious. You've just expressed a longer term view, do you trade on these? I know most (all?) of your trades are scalping and super-short-term, but do you have some longer term ones on also?

(I know in one sense everyone has longer term trades. House buying/selling/renting, variable rate/fixed rate mortgage, other major purchases etc, etc.)


----------



## wayneL

cuttlefish said:


> Forget gold _and _bread,  I'm going long on wheelbarrows.




 

I'm long on paper mills and helicopter manufacturers.

Between us I reckon we've got this all sewn up.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Xactly!!
> 
> The funny thing about this gold run is that the bugs are again going to be wrong. We are not going to get hyper inflation or the collapse of the world. Gold is getting dragged up in a bull equities run.
> 
> They couldn't of been more wrong
> 
> So far.




Love ya t/h, you give a man a reason to rise from slumber.

Gold is a hedge and we have talked about that before.  The next one is its effects on gold producers (the unhedged ones are best?)

If a gold company produces an ounce of gold at a cost before market at (I will use round figures) say $800 and the sell price is $900 we have a $100 profit. (think SBM has been in this state recently)  But if gold rises and holds 1000 then suddenly we have a doubling of the profit component, up 100%.  These moves can be traded.  sbm up 30% in the last week I think. 

Anyway lets move on t/h

Overnight we saw a break only to be brought down by the comex boys, and I cautioned on that, seen it too often, how dare the rest of the world take it up when they are on holidays.  Anyway they have made thier point and as I type it is back over the ton again.  So do not expect much till tonight and if the us dollar continues its slide (abig one overnight more that 1%) then we may see further strength then.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cuttlefish said:


> Don't worry TH ... I'm still well and truly long on gold  - just going to add wheelbarrows to the mix



 Yes people will need lots to cart the worthless USD around. Its a sure thing.



refined silver said:


> TH, just curious. You've just expressed a longer term view, do you trade on these? I know most (all?) of your trades are scalping and super-short-term, but do you have some longer term ones on also?



 bottom of the draw stuff yes. But have not been able to fine anything that beats daytrading and being in cash each night for smooth equity gains.

But that's is irrelevant to my point. That gold is not a fear/safe investment instrument like the bugs have been telling us for 10 years. Its just another risk taking asset like stocks, oil, derivatives, risk currencies etc.

Its the opposite to what the bugs tell us it is. So far. 

EDIT: Explod its no better a hedge than the very things bugs hate. thats the joke. Its actually been worse this year than everything. Hahahahahahaha get the joke?


----------



## Beej

Alan Kohler on Gold today at business spectator: 

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...aziness-pd20090909-VPSVF?OpenDocument&src=sph



> Gold is the commodity of craziness. Gold miners, even those wearing suits in the city, are all possessed by the ghosts of wild-eyed, bearded prospectors from the gold rushes of the 1850s; gold investors are that unique breed of incurable optimists who don’t want to be paid any income on their capital; and big gold bling wearers are possessed by Mesopotamian princes and princesses.




PS: Even as a speculative investment, given that the sentiment is driven primarily by the $US outlook, and given that the $AU seems to be marching to it's own tune due to our relatively better economic performance, lower debt, better prospects etc, medium term in $AU terms I can't see gold providing a decent return compared to the potential in equities especially and even property over the next few years? I mean even as this $US1000 break occurred, the $AU POG has stayed flat or gone backwards hasn't it?

PPS: As with anything when looking to the future, I could be completely wrong and POG may go to the moon even in $AU terms? But I personally see this as an outside possibility, rather than likely.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> EDIT: Explod its no better a hedge than the very things bugs hate. thats the joke. Its actually been worse this year than everything. Hahahahahahaha get the joke?




Have never asserted that, you may be surprised to learn that I have been trading energy stocks of recent times with continued good results that satisfy me without the need to be glued to the screen.   In the very long term my gold holdings are doing that too.   Some years back I did a couple of years glued to it and had excellent results but I went ga ga and my blood pressure through the roof, so got off it.

As of today 12 months ago gold was US$780  (a month later it went down to 730)  today it is 1000, so although the ponzie market has maybe done much better I have rested easy knowing that if the market was to fall out of the sky soon(and which I expect on fundamentals) I am relatively safe.

IMHO.

I am no guru gold lover either, just an ordinary investor


----------



## wayneL

Beej said:


> PS: Even as a speculative investment, given that the sentiment is driven primarily by the $US outlook, and given that the $AU seems to be marching to it's own tune due to our relatively better economic performance, lower debt, better prospects etc, medium term in $AU terms I can't see gold providing a decent return compared to the potential in equities especially and even property over the next few years? I mean even as this $US1000 break occurred, the $AU POG has stayed flat or gone backwards hasn't it?
> 
> PPS: As with anything when looking to the future, I could be completely wrong and POG may go to the moon even in $AU terms? But I personally see this as an outside possibility, rather than likely.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Well, for $4,500 margin per contract, and about a $4,000 per contact move since breaking out of the triangle and pathetically low transaction costs, it ain't half bad.

Margin makes AUD considerations of little significance.


----------



## moXJO

Beej said:


> PS: Even as a speculative investment, given that the sentiment is driven primarily by the $US outlook, and given that the $AU seems to be marching to it's own tune due to our relatively better economic performance, lower debt, better prospects etc, medium term in $AU terms I can't see gold providing a decent return compared to the potential in equities especially and even property over the next few years? I mean even as this $US1000 break occurred, the $AU POG has stayed flat or gone backwards hasn't it?
> 
> PPS: As with anything when looking to the future, I could be completely wrong and POG may go to the moon even in $AU terms? But I personally see this as an outside possibility, rather than likely.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Yes the spanner in the works seems to be that our dollar increase offsets the gains in gold. Probably because our economy is more commodity driven and dollar rises on risk appetite? If we raise rates it will be even worse for gold
In saying that I do have a small gold, and larger silver holding as part of the portfolio.


----------



## explod

moXJO said:


> Yes the spanner in the works seems to be that our dollar increase offsets the gains in gold. Probably because our economy is more commodity driven and dollar rises on risk appetite? If we raise rates it will be even worse for gold
> In saying that I do have a small gold, and larger silver holding as part of the portfolio.





Not exactly right, the Ausie gold price up $4.20 overnight.  Not sure of the source but recently pointed out that aussie gold companies sell into $US


----------



## Beej

wayneL said:


> Well, for $4,500 margin per contract, and about a $4,000 per contact move since breaking out of the triangle and pathetically low transaction costs, it ain't half bad.
> 
> Margin makes AUD considerations of little significance.




Yes that's true if you are trading futures rather than buying and holding physical, as your I guess your currency exposure is only over the margin amount rather the on  the underlying value.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Ageo

Gold price looks good, just picked up some krugers for below spot? :headshake

Refiners spread still seem tame which means they havent factored a major move in just yet.

We shall wait and see........


----------



## Uncle Festivus

You either get it or you don't - 

China wants out of the 'failed' world currency?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/financ...0000821/china-bernanke-and-the-price-of-gold/



> What he said about US monetary policy and gold – this bit on the record – would appear to validate the long-held belief of gold bugs that China has fundamentally lost confidence in the US dollar and is going to shift to a partial gold standard through reserve accumulation.
> 
> He played down other metals such as copper, saying that they could not double as a proxy currency or *store of wealth*.
> 
> “Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not stimulate the market,” he said.
> In other words, China is buying the dips, and will continue to do so as a systematic policy. His comment captures exactly what observation of gold price action suggests is happening. Every time it looks as if the bullion market is going to buckle, some big force steps in from the unknown.
> Investors long-suspected that it was China. We later discovered that Beijing had in fact doubled its gold reserves to 1054 tonnes. Fait accompli first. Announcement long after.
> 
> Standing back, you can see that the steady rise in gold over the last eight years to $994 an ounce last week – *outperforming US equities fourfold*, even with reinvested dividends – has roughly tracked the emergence of China as a superpower in foreign reserve holdings (now $2 trillion).



The emperor is naked but nobody wants to admit it, out loud at least, for fear of the whole charade falling apart. The problem is that anything priced in USD's is going to rise regardless of the intrinsic supply demand fundamentals, due to USD debasement. The evidence is in - the Fed 'loans' foreign CB's USD's for the purchase of US bonds, the insiders club that makes bond auctions  appear better than they are?

The Ponzi scheme is supposed to end in October, later than originally scheduled, but no doubt there will continue to be 'other' methods of backdooring funds into banks, bonds and GSE's as well as the usual  'orderly market operations' from the Presidents Working Party or PPT or the Fed manipulation proxy - Goldman Sachs.

Maybe gold will be the instrument on the battlefield of ideologies between China & the US?


----------



## Tradesurfer

two potential trades here- buy gold if it tops $1040 and put stop a bit under $1000.

Short Gold and put a buy stop above $1040

nice thing about where price is-not too much distance between entry/exit-


----------



## explod

Just been doing a bit of a size up.   On current market behaviour, oil,.dollar and chart, we could most likely see a correction down to the 965/70 area before we get going again.   The top and bottom line of the old pennant looks like support in that area and it lines up with general trend from about April

Just my thoughts


----------



## explod

> Posted: Sep 10 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: September 10, 2009 at 2:30 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> Judging from some of the emails I have been receiving, the feds and their gold capping efforts have already unsettled many of gold’s friends. Please note – the bullion banks can attempt to stuff the price of gold back below $1,000 but without a strong rally in the US Dollar, they are spitting in the wind as the fundamentals are arrayed against them.
> 
> I am reminded of an old movie named Beau Geste, in which the defenders of a fort are reduced to stuffing the bodies of their fallen soldiers into the ports in order to convince their enemies that the fort is still well manned and ably defended, where the truth was that their situation was dire indeed. Bluff and bravado are what the bullion banks rely on. If longs will not run all their efforts will go for naught.
> 
> Gold is not going to be held down by these crafty schemers indefinitely due to the simple fact that the Forex markets are far too large for any one entity to give a sustained push to a currency in a direction that is contrary to the supply/demand factors affecting that particular currency. Economics 101 has not been suspended just because the feds and their crony pals at Goldman and Morgan would wish it otherwise. The world is awash in Dollars and the supply is only going to continue to increase. Even if demand were to remain constant (which it will not), that is insufficient to absorb the excess supply meaning that price must fall. As the Dollar falls, gold will continue higher, capping efforts of the feds notwithstanding. Honest money is yet going to rule the day unless one can change human nature with a mere sweep of the hand. Investors worldwide, and governments worldwide, are slowly but surely coming to grips with what US spending profligacy is doing to its currency and are voting with their feet.
> 
> Technically, gold has been able to attract buyers above $980. The longer it can hold near that level, the better the chances become that $1,000 will give way.
> 
> Also, the strong rally in the HUI is very encouraging as it has fought avid buying above the 400 level, which was the former high and now seems to be serving as strong technical support. That is promising for the bullish cause and is no doubt serving to unnerve some of the weaker shorts.




From J sinclair's Mineset.    Trader Dan tells it how it happens from the Comex pits.   I was a bit off in the last post, bulls are hanging in there a lot stronger than I have seen for a long time.

I feel now that when it does break up it will be very powerful indeed.  Yesterdays Age here in Melbourne quoted Allan Greenspan as now bullish gold.  Never thought I would ever read that.


----------



## Whiskers

Well, I'm sticking to my earlier estimate of $1,200 to $1,300 area before any significant correction... and probable profit taking.

Interesting to see Aus gold stocks finish on the up with gold rebounding back toward $1,000 on the close and going quite strong to $1,010ish into the US weekend.


----------



## So_Cynical

What is interesting IMO is that i think this is the first time POG has held at this level for so long...5 days if we close above 990 this morning....5 days of consolidation at around the 1K mark is pretty impressive.

Ive been watching gold for prob 3 years...and ive never seen it told like it is now...DOW and POG running together...Blue sky's ahead?


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> What is interesting IMO is that i think this is the first time POG has held at this level for so long...5 days if we close above 990 this morning....5 days of consolidation at around the 1K mark is pretty impressive.
> 
> Ive been watching gold for prob 3 years...and ive never seen it told like it is now...DOW and POG running together...Blue sky's ahead?




And now gold up dow down, as always unpredictable,  in fact oil and dollar down together, and aussie gold up too.

gold is now beginning its new life alone.


----------



## Irvinator

From Dominic Frisby, Moneyweek !

Hong Kong is taking delivery of its gold 

The tremors in the gold market began last week when Hong Kong announced it was pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in the UK and moving them home to newly-built vaults near the city’s airport. We’ve said it before: wealth is moving east. Yes, Hong Kong has ambitions to be the bullion trading hub of the Orient, but there could be more to it than that. 

It’s estimated that they own some $63m worth of gold. In the international scheme of things, that isn’t much. There might even be a banker somewhere who takes that home this year as his bonus. What is noteworthy is that Hong Kong is taking delivery of its metal. 

Many gold followers have argued that if everyone who owned futures, exchange traded funds (ETFs), warrants, options, CFDs and any other gold derivative you care to mention decided to take delivery of the gold against which their contract is written, there wouldn’t be enough physical metal to go around, and the price would rocket. 

Indeed it was the French government’s insistence in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s on taking delivery of the metal in lieu of US dollars that eventually forced the US off the gold standard in 1971. The US didn’t have the physical metal to back the quantity of dollars it had put out. Gold quickly went up tenfold. Perhaps Hong Kong is taking delivery while it still can. 

Just a few days later, Barrick, the world’s largest gold producer, announced plans to eliminate its gold hedges. (Hedging is when a miner sells its metal before it has actually been mined in order to lock in a price. This can work well in a falling market, as you have sold your metal for a higher price than it is when you actually mine it; but it can be a disaster in a rising market because you miss out on the higher prices). Barrick’s hedging strategy has rightly attracted a great deal of criticism. The company failed to recognise a bull market and sold its gold too cheap. 

So costly has been Barrick’s hedging strategy, a contrarian might argue that their now eliminating their hedges could mark the top of the market. 

But what’s interesting is that rather than deliver the gold it has sold forward, Barrick has chosen to raise cash by issuing shares and using the money – some $3.5bn – to pay off its obligations. In other words, the largest gold miner in the world thinks that it’s worth buying its way out of the hedges with cash now, because it’ll get a better price for its gold in the future. 

Why the Chinese government is telling its people to buy gold

Meanwhile we hear that China has doubled its reserves to 1,054 tonnes. They are buying gold, ‘carefully so as not to stimulate the market’ says Chinese economic ambassador Cheng Siwei, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph. Siwei continues: “Credit in China is too loose. We have a bubble in the housing market and in stocks so we have to be very careful, because this could fall down.” 

Is the risk that ‘this could fall down’ the reason that the Chinese authorities are pushing their citizens so hard to buy gold – so that they have some protection from any credit bubble collapse? Analyst Paul Mylchreest notes in his Thunder Road Report that the main, state-owned television company is promoting gold and silver as an investment. The government is telling its people to buy gold. What’s more, every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals, and China’s largest bank, the ICBC, is setting up a precious metals department to handle growing investor demand. 

Where is all this gold going to come from? Well, if 1.3 billion people start buying one-ounce coins, heaven only knows. China is already the biggest gold producer, last year superseding South Africa. Pretty soon it will replace India as the largest consumer. 

And if the Chinese authorities are pushing gold as an investment to their citizens, it obliges them to ‘protect’ the gold price, as Lawrence Williams of Mineweb notes. It would be tantamount to a betrayal if it fell, never mind the loss of all-important face that would result. Just as the US and the UK stepped in to bail out their banks, so China will be duty bound to prop up gold. 

But the surprising strength we have seen in gold over the summer – we never really got the summer low I was looking for – suggests that somebody is already ‘buying the dips’ anyway. Indeed the gold price has this week repeatedly gone through $1,000 during overnight trading, only to fall back when the US markets open. That indicates that the buyers are out east somewhere. I have written about this before: Gold is shifting from West to East – along with the balance of power. 

$1,000 an ounce is just the start

There are some who argue convincingly that the $1,000 will mark a double top in gold and then we’ll go down from here. There are other technical indicators that suggest a top. 

But there is too much impetus to force the price higher. We may hover around here for a while - in spring 2008 oil spent almost six weeks bouncing between $95 and $100 before bursting through – and $100 oil is like $1,000 gold. Indeed there is a little bit too much bullishness about the place at the moment, so a pullback would be healthy. But once we have a break above $1,000 and a weekly close above the old high at $1,032, the news on gold will be splashed everywhere. It all points to much higher prices in time.


----------



## Ageo

Interesting news, it will be very interesting to see if china becomes a major consumer of gold where it will take the true physical price to.


----------



## explod

Had not been watching gold much for awhile but was just ruminating on the five year gold chart.   We could break out to about 1030 ish and then when attention is high a correction down could be high impact down to the 800 area which is the bottom of the long term bottom uptrend line which dates from about July of 05.

Just a rumination/feeling mind you, but having watched the behaviour of gold over the last seven years some anticipation starts to knock.

Of course if it was to break clear of the 1030 area, where I think there will be considerable resistance then that would be very bullish.  A pointer towards that maybe the continuation, which looks likely, of the US$ index.

Any other thoughts around


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> Any other thoughts around




Yeh wait for these next 2 months to pass and that will tell us what gold is going to do. At least thats what 2 refiners told me.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Hi Explod, 
Rambling man moment . It looks as though the Goldman Sachs Index, otherwise known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is doing it a bit tougher on this thrust up, only managing to get to the previous highs in the same timeframe, instead of several percent above. So there could be a rotation back to 'safe' haven US treasuries/bonds etc??

We really need a clean break from the negative correlation to DXY, but that willl only happen when the Fed has spent all their bazooka's, so ???? Aussie gold still can't break $1200! The ETF's are a worry though if a concerted push from 'the firm' can break the pog down enough to start an exodus, although if it holds it could show gold is playing global currency of last resort, finally? 

It's a tough call right now....


----------



## explod

Thanks for the comments above Ageo and Uncle.    Yes I am a bit non-plussed,  the suspicion and doubt we have is, I suppose, that wall of worry, not helped of course by a very negative business press in realation to the value of gold as an investment alternative.   A thought that has occurred is the vehemence against gold two days running in our Melbourne Age newspaper.   Maybe they are the ones feeling insecure.  Again, "the wall of worry"

The rest of the week promises to be intersting as the last five have had consistent up consolidations then up again,  on the steps so far, this week is due for the next 10 to 15$ up. 

Time will tell


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Thanks for the comments above Ageo and Uncle.    Yes I am a bit non-plussed,  the suspicion and doubt we have is, I suppose, that wall of worry, not helped of course by a very negative business press in realation to the value of gold as an investment alternative.   A thought that has occurred is the vehemence against gold two days running in our Melbourne Age newspaper.   Maybe they are the ones feeling insecure.  Again, "the wall of worry"
> 
> The rest of the week promises to be intersting as the last five have had consistent up consolidations then up again,  on the steps so far, this week is due for the next 10 to 15$ up.
> 
> Time will tell




Did you read the piece on RNG explod?

That read like a ramp and yet Michael Pascoe gave gold a pasting in his piece.

Only time will tell. Haven't heard anything to change the fact that gold is in diminishing supply. Haven't heard anything either about people spending less on daily consumables or decreases in Un or Underemployment *in developed G8 economies*

What's next for the deflationists? I suppose it will be to argue that Engel's Coefficient doesn't really exist and now that developing nations have more purchasing power and production they will buy less commodities due to rising incomes and prosperity. Who needs a healthy diet when you're a rapidly growing developing country opening up to the free market for the first time and have infrastructure pipeline projects to build for the next couple of decades? It does require an abstract view of things and the future to really get why gold is now trading with 3 zero's. Oh and not to mention, that a portion of that new found wealth in these places will not consider gold as an investment India No.1 and China No.2. 

So as a result a bear market in commodities will trounce gold! As if...  IMHO


Happy days!


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> Did you read the piece on RNG explod?
> 
> That read like a ramp and yet Michael Pascoe gave gold a pasting in his piece.




Yes Gumby, and some on the Board were the same as presided over the Oxiana fiascoe, so would be most skeptical also.  And the press, only writing what they are told by bigger players IMHO

And agree with the rest of your post


----------



## explod

Every night at this time (the last four days), the US$ index rises fairly steeply and by 11 am US time it falls.  However the gold price is not falling for it anymore and is staying firm.  But having said that gold is at the same level now as it was this time last night but the dollar on the same frame is down about a half a percent. 

A drop in the US Dow could change that as it brings with it a move to the US dollar.   All is very delicately poised for what ??    I cannot see.   But maybe we will not break the 1032 this week


----------



## lukeaye

explod said:


> And now gold up dow down, as always unpredictable,  in fact oil and dollar down together, and aussie gold up too.
> 
> gold is now beginning its new life alone.




Its not really that unpredictable, it has consildated at 1000, this will become new support. i dont see it faltering form here, if you look historically, there is always a very quick rejection from these higher levels, which force it to fail. 

I have noticed GOLD moves with the dow and the dollar, but there are also inflationary concerns that drive it, so if you look closely there are always reasons for its price action.

im not fundamentalist though.


----------



## lukeaye

Just for my 2 cents, my little predication, i see a pullback to around 1005 - 1007, before an explosion to the upside around the 1040 level by late next week.

I could howver be very wrong, but i think 1,100 is a conservative target at the moment. 

It does present as a low risk trade when you can set stops just below 1,000 and have a long term target of 1,100.

If you have the stomach to stick around til then anway


----------



## vincent191

Besides Gold is there any other commodity that safeguards against inflation & a depreciating US$??

I use to think platinium might be one such commodity but given the collapse of the price of platinum and it's failure to match the recent increase in the gold price I am no that keen.

Any thoughts on base metals & oil??  I am too chicken to punt on gold to keep going up. I am trying to find something that hasn't gone up yet and I keep coming back to platinum.

Any thoughts??


----------



## lukeaye

to me, looking for something, that hasnt gone up, or isnt going up, seems to have a very low probabilty of success? seems counter-intuitive

If you are so inclined though, have a look at historical charts on certain commodities when inflation was high. i am not particaulary apt with fundamentals


----------



## explod

vincent191 said:


> Besides Gold is there any other commodity that safeguards against inflation & a depreciating US$??
> 
> I use to think platinium might be one such commodity but given the collapse of the price of platinum and it's failure to match the recent increase in the gold price I am no that keen.
> 
> Any thoughts on base metals & oil??  I am too chicken to punt on gold to keep going up. I am trying to find something that hasn't gone up yet and I keep coming back to platinum.
> 
> Any thoughts??





I believe the energy sector is a very good one.  Todays concern by the Government about the pollution of Loy Yang coal fired generator (carbon credit is going to be the issue) will lean governments more towards uranium.  Wether we like it or not it is the only practical short term solution with sufficient grunt to replace coal.  So urnaium miners have to be good ones.

Physical silver, with mining dropping off (silver is a by product) is a good one.  The silver ratio to gold is around the 70 to one.  In the 1970s it was about 25 to one.   I have both gold and silver.

In 1970 gold was $35 an ounce it went to over 850 and ounce in 1980 a ratio of around 25 to 1.    The bottom or start point of this gold run began in 2001 from a base of US$260 an ounce.  If we multiply that by 25 times we have a projection to $6,500.   Some pundits are saying that this time around conditions for currency devaluation my be worse that the 1970s so who knows gold may go further than that.

Having said that I believe diversification is wise across a number of sectors that you believe have a good future. 

If you are very serious about knowing the ins and outs of gold it is well worth taking the time to read over the last two years of this thread, may take a few days but will reward your effort.

Cheers and welcome to the debate,  explod


----------



## lukeaye

explod, you are very right, the biggest factor for me is currency, i think we will find the US dollar is going to get alot weaker then people think.

How farfetched does it sound when you say 6,500? but in relative terms to your example before, it isnt. i found the same thing buying my first home, prices seem astronimical compared to 10 years ago, but 10 years ago, they seemed astronmical.

Will this be value in years to come? i for one think so


----------



## explod

lukeaye said:


> explod, you are very right, the biggest factor for me is currency, i think we will find the US dollar is going to get alot weaker then people think.
> 
> How farfetched does it sound when you say 6,500? but in relative terms to your example before, it isnt. i found the same thing buying my first home, prices seem astronimical compared to 10 years ago, but 10 years ago, they seemed astronmical.
> 
> Will this be value in years to come? i for one think so





You are best to go over the charts and make your own assement.  To me on my overall evaluation I think by mid 2012 6,500 will be an achievable target.  Many will jump on me for saying this but remember my judgement is made for myself and I back it with a lot (last 7 years) of research on economic fundamentals.  That does not still say that I know any more than others or that I am correct ( we tend often to see only what we want to see), its just for me but I enjoy putting it up here for comment as I find contributions out of the woodwork help me to see other angles.   A few years ago I was adamant that the US dollar was going down but backed off (not without my explosive rantings of course) when the chart clearly indicated what others (Nick Radge was one and poss t/a) were trying to point out, that it was in a very firm uptrend, think it went up more than 50% and only in  the last few months has it collapsed from that.  So we learn all the time.


----------



## lukeaye

yeah also good piont. i remember last time gold went to 1,000, my friend who had a healthy knowledge about fundamentals, said luke you should buy gold, im putting 10,000 into spot cfd's on it.

his comments were convincing, fundamentally, it seemed to make sense. 

I looked at the charts, shooting star! thank god i stayed out! he was so convinced by what he thought, and what others told him, that he ended up lowering and lowering his stops convinced it would go up from 980, 960, 940, 920. all his cash gone. the charts never lie!

he never traded again!


----------



## So_Cynical

explod said:


> I believe the energy sector is a very good one.  Todays concern by the Government about the pollution of Loy Yang coal fired generator (carbon credit is going to be the issue) will lean governments more towards uranium.  Wether we like it or not it is the only practical short term solution with sufficient grunt to replace coal.  So uranium miners have to be good ones.




Wrong 

When u compare uranium/plutonium light water reactors with thorium based Molten-Salt Reactors...u come to realize that uranium is a fuel with a very limited future.

The future is nuclear, but its all about Thorium not Uranium.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_water_reactor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-salt_reactor_experiment


----------



## Glen48

From what I have been reading this is not the big one and expect a dip  before it shoots to 1200- 1500.
Peter Schiff claims it could go to 35K and OZ.  YEESSS


----------



## GumbyLearner

Glen48 said:


> From what I have been reading this is not the big one and expect a dip  before it shoots to 1200- 1500.
> Peter Schiff claims it could go to 35K and OZ.  YEESSS




Sounds ridiculously outlandish! But hey what is sensible these days? 

What this guy? Give me a break!! 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSNy...AF0DC6BA&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=10

I should have become a groupie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Wrong
> 
> When u compare uranium/plutonium light water reactors with thorium based Molten-Salt Reactors...u come to realize that uranium is a fuel with a very limited future.
> 
> The future is nuclear, but its all about Thorium not Uranium.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_water_reactor
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-salt_reactor_experiment




I like being wrong because it shows me something new.

Paper today full of articles that coal is not the answer.  So/c is there a thread or more information on the thorium based reactors.  And your input further would be great.   I will google the issue but discussiobn on ASF sounds worthwhile.


----------



## Timmy

Seen this?

IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).

IMF press release

Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Timmy said:


> Seen this?
> 
> IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).
> 
> IMF press release
> 
> Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?




It used to be enough to tank the POG, but a big yawn these days. JP Morgan getting a bit nervous over their short positions, so has put the call out to the comrades


----------



## explod

Timmy said:


> Seen this?
> 
> IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).
> 
> IMF press release
> 
> Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?





Yeh, they have trotted this one out a number of times, at particular gold breakout points, over the last few years and it is now well factored in to the price, so as Uncle said, "a bit of a yawn these days"

Big attempt on closing below the ton last night but the buyers keep sweeping in at every higher bottom.


----------



## So_Cynical

Timmy said:


> Seen this?
> 
> IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).
> 
> Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?




According to Wiki, the IMF is the number 4 holder of Gold reserves, and a quick calculation shows that this sale of 403 tons is less than 1% of all gold reserves held by all reserve banks etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves

I'm sure the last time this was touted (about 3 months ago) the Chinese came out and said they would buy the lot....happy to swap greenbacks for Gold as they only have a reserve of about 1000 tons.


----------



## Timmy

OK.  Let me check this.

A metric ton is 1,000 kg;

So 403 metric tons, that would 403,000 kilograms;

That is approx. 14,215,406 oz. (I used http://www.unit-conversion.info/weight.html).

Ballpark daily volume:
_The average daily volume of gold ... cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces_ (source)

OK - so if they belted it out in a day it might be an issue LOL.  
IMF press release goes into more detail on timetable for selling.

Thanks guys.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I like physical gold. I buy it and bury it to keep it away from the Indons and the Japs or Chinese  if they ever come down the Bruce Highway and also from the ex Mrs gumnuts who are always on the bloody highway trying to make me poor.

Gold is so nice to dig up, and take out of the tin and unroll from the cloth and hold.

Physical is best always.

It will never lose value.


gg


----------



## hobo-jo

Timmy said:


> Seen this?
> IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).
> IMF press release
> Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?




The IMF sold 1500 tonnes of Gold over the last major bull run from 1976-1980.

China, Russia and India have all expressed interest in buying this Gold.

They have used this story at previous peaks to try and drive the price down, see March 2008, Feb 2009, now, etc. As mentioned above, this story and sale has been priced in already...


----------



## Timmy

hobo-jo said:


> They have used this story at previous peaks to try and drive the price down, see March 2008, Feb 2009, now, etc. As mentioned above, this story and sale has been priced in already...




OK, didn't realise that.

Is 'they' the IMF?  Why do they want to drive the price of gold down?

They used this story in March 2008 and over the course of the next 9 months the gold price fell nearly 30%.  If they were trying to drive the price down looks like that was somewhat successful?

They used this story in Feb 2009 and the price fell 10% over the next 2 months.  Again, looks somewhat successful?

Chart attached is sourced from Kitco.com, my arrows to highlight the dates you specified.


----------



## hobo-jo

By "they", I mean those that seek to suppress the Gold price. Obviously this would not be an official line of the IMF and infact they have stated that they will split the sale up so as to avoid influencing the market. Perhaps it is just coincidence and the updates around the sale just come out during times of high Gold interest...

This speaker agrees though that the sale has been used in the way I describe:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwo...ries/2009/9/18_GATA_files/GATA 09:18:2009.mp3

It can hardly be attributed to the full fall in gold price when the articles are released, but I believe it has added fuel to the last two major turn downs. I think the news is now priced in and people would be more confident of there easily being the buyers for the Gold should the sale ever go through.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

One of the objectives behind any central bank is to destroy any credible alternatives to their 'system' of fiat money? 

I still think about Gordon Brown selling a big chunk of Britains gold at the bottom of the market and then get rewarded by becoming their PM. With people like him in charge, that's as good as any reason why Britain is in deep poo and best case look like treading water for a long time?

The Tin Hat Brigade at it again 

*AT the core of a congressional push to audit the Federal Reserve are activists with a larger purpose: to abolish the central bank.*




*
New book: * Republican politician Ron Paul has written a book critical of the US central bank.

Thousands of Americans are joining protests and lobbying their politicians in pursuit of the ultimate goal of replacing the Fed with a money system backed by *gold* or other commodities. 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26085667-36375,00.html


----------



## Real1ty

Uncle Festivus said:


> *Thousands* of Americans are joining protests and lobbying their politicians in pursuit of the ultimate goal of replacing the Fed with a money system backed by *gold* or other commodities.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26085667-36375,00.html




How many is thousands?

2K? 5K? 10K?

What is Americas population, roughly 300 Mill?

I bet the Fed are shaking in their boots.

Shoddy reporting and i'm sure there are thousands of Americans lobbying their politicians for an extra McDonalds on their block as well.


----------



## weatherbill

looks like that new gold price is not shaking.....  I thought it would have come down by now..... maybe they are planning to drop the price this fall with a bunch of commercial real estate announcements


----------



## weatherbill

Uncle Festivus said:


> One of the objectives behind any central bank is to destroy any credible alternatives to their 'system' of fiat money?
> 
> I still think about Gordon Brown selling a big chunk of Britains gold at the bottom of the market and then get rewarded by becoming their PM. With people like him in charge, that's as good as any reason why Britain is in deep poo and best case look like treading water for a long time?
> 
> The Tin Hat Brigade at it again
> 
> *AT the core of a congressional push to audit the Federal Reserve are activists with a larger purpose: to abolish the central bank.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *
> New book: * Republican politician Ron Paul has written a book critical of the US central bank.
> 
> Thousands of Americans are joining protests and lobbying their politicians in pursuit of the ultimate goal of replacing the Fed with a money system backed by *gold* or other commodities.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26085667-36375,00.html




They are playing right into the hands of the central bank, who wants to abolish itself in favor of an international bank called IMF witht he new currency, SDRs......

honorable indeed, but I think they are falling into a trap.


----------



## i_in

http://www.imf.org/External/NP/EXR/faq/goldfaqs.htm

sorry, I saw that someone already wrote about this


----------



## explod

There is little reason for me to post anymore, you are all getting a handle on it.

It is all about the US$ "OF COURSE"  which sits at around 76, a little below in the last 24 hours but it hangs on grimly.  It is the key....,     when it falls away, (if it does) then gold will be in very new territory.  Of course it is now, it has never consolidated above the 1000 before and every time it goes near there the buyers come in.

On the past big breaks it has on average increased very quickly by about 60%, so the target, around US$1,600

We will see what pans out, time frame if it breaks, around 6 weeks.


----------



## wayneL

HAs anybody been keeping an eye on the C.O.T. graph

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/18092009/325/gold-reaches-history-rally-add.html

Yahoo has a bit of a spiel on Gold & COT today FWIW.

(For interest only)



> SNIP:
> 
> A STRETCH
> 
> Most of the run higher has been led by major flows into the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, with trading investors and speculators vastly increasing long positions, leaving the price vulnerable to rapid and sharp falls.
> 
> The latest weekly Commitments of Traders report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net long positions had widened to a massive 224,676 as of September 8 compared with 184,501 a week earlier.
> 
> Positioning looks set to extend more, but the longer it gets, the bigger the risk.
> 
> "Everybody is saying the market is too long, but no-one wants to sell," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
> 
> "There's too much money in the world as central banks take easy policy and as funds push up the market with the money. They see (the) gold market as easy to manipulate...like a casino."
> 
> But flows into exchange traded funds, the beneficiary of gold buying earlier in the year, have not kept pace with the latest price surge, and physical demand from the jewellery sector has gone cold.
> 
> Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have picked up a little after plateauing over the summer months, but remain well down on the first quarter's record levels.


----------



## doctorj

Citi's latest note on gold for any that are interested.


----------



## Sean K

Gold has advanced due to USD collapse right?

What happens when it get's quoted in something else?

Is this possible?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> Gold has advanced due to USD collapse right?
> 
> What happens when it get's quoted in something else?
> 
> Is this possible?




Who really knows, there are all sorts of amazing claims from both bull and bear camps at the moment.   I only go on fundamantals now, which in my view for most currencies will be bad in the *longer*term and of course historical reactions the most recent being the run in 1970 to 1980.   In this run we are a long way from a top yet comparatively  IMVHO


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Real1ty said:


> How many is thousands?
> 
> 2K? 5K? 10K?
> 
> What is Americas population, roughly 300 Mill?
> 
> I bet the Fed are shaking in their boots.
> 
> Shoddy reporting and i'm sure there are thousands of Americans lobbying their politicians for an extra McDonalds on their block as well.




People are angry, and so is Congress.......



> So much for the ongoing secrecy of the nation’s independent central banking system. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 75% of Americans favor auditing the Federal Reserve and making the results available to the public.
> 
> Just nine percent (9%) of adults think that’s a bad idea and oppose it. Fifteen percent (15%) aren’t sure.
> 
> *Over half the members of the House now support a bill giving the Government Accounting Office, Congress’ investigative agency, the authorization to audit the books of the Federal Reserve Board. *




http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub..._business/july_2009/75_favor_auditing_the_fed


----------



## Whiskers

A bit of a sharp drop under 1,000 again... CBGA members squaring up their accounts before September 26???


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> A bit of a sharp drop under 1,000 again... CBGA members squaring up their accounts before September 26???




Nah, they say weak housing data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   cheers


----------



## explod

> September 24, 2009 at 2:17 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> There appears to be a deadly contest occurring in the Dollar market over the 76 level on the USDX. As I have mentioned in my prior commentary, a closing downside breach of 76 and the USDX will promptly drop to 74. That will be enough to allow gold to shoot to $1,030 and take out that level. Once that level gives way on a close, momentum funds will flood into the gold market overwhelming the ability of Goldman and Morgan to suck down all the gold bids into their magic price capping box and we should see an acceleration higher. I am not sure who is supplying the bid to the Dollar to attempt to prevent this but their footprint is evident on the hourly charts. There was nothing in yesterday’s FOMC statement that was the least bit Dollar friendly.




And I thought the timing was brilliant, $15 drop in the first hour of US trade.   This is the one I cautioned about a few weeks back.   Of course in tune with the GW summint


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> And I thought the timing was brilliant, $15 drop in the first hour of US trade.   This is the one I cautioned about a few weeks back.   Of course in tune with the GW summint



I thought gold had developed a 'life of it's own' a couple of weeks ago?


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Just been doing a bit of a size up.   On current market behaviour, oil,.dollar and chart, we could most likely see a correction down to the 965/70 area before we get going again.   The top and bottom line of the old pennant looks like support in that area and it lines up with general trend from about April
> 
> Just my thoughts



  coupla weeks ago



> kennas Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
> 
> 
> I thought gold had developed a 'life of it's own' a couple of weeks ago?




The ponzies are being called to account and are on the death bed but sure they wont' go without this final thrust down to try and clear some of their inner trades (is that like a laxative?).

Just MHO.


----------



## Sean K

While I've read here and there that people are changing USD for Gold, I just can't see how the world is going to allow the USD to completely tank and stand by as their national reserves (in USD) disintegrate. Maybe it will be an orderly disintegration?


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> While I've read here and there that people are changing USD for Gold, I just can't see how the world is going to allow the USD to completely tank and stand by as their national reserves (in USD) disintegrate. Maybe it will be an orderly disintegration?






> One of the factors working against the Dollar is persistent strength in the Yen which continues moving higher with nary a peep out of the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance. That it has been doing so is all the more remarkable considering the attention that the yen garners from those two quarters. As a currency trader I can remember more than a few occasions scanning the wire services in the wee hours of early morning for comments from those folks in an attempt to glean the level of the yen above which they would foray forth to beat us speculators into submission. Based on their silence one can only come to the conclusion that the Dollar/Yen level is losing its fascination with the monetary authorities in Japan who now appear to be looking across the water at China and further over to India as their future financial interest centers. Could it be that the 51rst state of the Union is “seceding” from Uncle Sam’s fiefdom as it witnesses the implosion of US economic might? I think so. After all, outside of the US everyone and their mother can see the handwriting on the wall detailing the demise of US economic might. Self interest still rules supreme not only in the individual but among nations. Japan is wisely doing what is in its long term financial interest.




Just a bit more from Trader Dan Norcini today.

If the US financial establishment would face reality maybe an orderly disingagement could occur, but no one wants to be the one putting the hand up.  So my take is that like the Weimer Republic and Zimbabwe the collapse of the $US and its financial system will not be pretty for them.   We just dont' know the timing but the rest of the world is losing patience and making it known, *and that is a recent event.*


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> So my take is that like the Weimer Republic and Zimbabwe the collapse of the $US and its financial system will not be pretty for them.



Are you really comparing the collapse of these currencies (no idea what the Weimer was) to the USD? Are we missing something in regard to the importance of the value of the dollar to some parts? Surely if USD turns to toilet paper so does much of the globe? Maybe that's what you're predicting, but will it be allowed?


----------



## wayneL

If the US does a Weimar, so does most of the rest of the west... and much of the east too.


----------



## explod

wayneL said:


> If the US does a Weimar, so does most of the rest of the west... and much of the east too.




Of course, it all gets back to meaningful production.  The US production (GDP)is 70% consumption which cannot be sustained much longer.  Australia is heading down the same path, stimulas packages for what ? *consumption*   Tangible assets, land, gold et al to hold value, work and sweat, real production for proper value growth the reward for that toil.

We luckily have the big pits, primary production (food) etc., and there a many productive countries nearby with solid cheap labor feeding off those pits.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> While I've read here and there that people are changing USD for Gold, I just can't see how the world is going to allow the USD to completely tank and stand by as their national reserves (in USD) disintegrate. Maybe it will be an orderly disintegration?




If you have a trillion of something that is losing it's value daily then you go along with the game for fear of losing the lot. But in the meantime you make moves to divest yourself of these IOU's for physical things like commodities, or alternative means of wealth exchange, like gold.

The IMF is coming to the party with a 10 fold increase in the number of SDR's in circulation to near $300 Billion. The recent announcement of the imminent sell off of a portion of their gold reserves is testament that central banks and similar entities are getting close to their last gasp on how to keep global liquidiity velocity moving, instead of just juicing up the equity markets by manipulating the Dow futures via Goldman Sachs etc.

There should be one last hurrah back to US safe haven bonds/treasuries before the real game starts for gold, that is when the workings of the Fed and accomplices are revealed, through a newly invigorated justice & regulatory system. 

The only thing missing in this drama is some sort of announcement from the US that they too will be selling a part of their (supposedly - hasn't been 'audited' since 2006?) huge gold reserves to pay for things. Have a think about it - if they wanted to raise money they could do this without having to sell bonds/treasuries, so why havn't they? Probably because they don't have any gold left after using swaps & leasing to divest themselves of a large chunk of their reserves. Or selling via the back door through the IMF?

How about this gem on market trasparency - 



> But we want to continue that strategy which we’ve followed from the beginning, of being very up-front with markets on what’s going on. So, before we initiate the sale, the Board felt it would be useful to just inform markets we’re about to do it.



Yeah right, try to get the best possible price by telling everyone you are about to dump some gold on the market?

It's no surprise that the architect of the IMF sales is also a key player in the global gold market.  Andrew Crockett, President of JP Morgan Chase International and former General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements. Guess who will be in charge of investing the funds - his mates on Wall Street.


> Investments can be placed in the hands of professional managers, whose fees and charges would be small relative to the additional income.



Small fees & charges......mmm, do such managers even exist?

Getting closer...........


----------



## explod

> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...1B-A342-4B1F-81A9-A44EE349BB56#comment2865703




Not sure if this link has been posted up before, but looks like the cat is getting out of the bag now.

And as Uncle discloses, maybe there is no gold anymore at fort knox or wherever the storage is now.


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> And as Uncle discloses, maybe there is no gold anymore at fort knox or wherever the storage is now.




Its all going to asia now thats why, majority of scrap, bullion etc.. is going offshore. Perhaps they are preparing for something down the track???? 


Time always tells...........

Until then volatility still seems normal as spreads havent blown out but if it does then we will know something is in the mix.


----------



## Ardyne

Where's it heading ?...Down apparently. just noticed it under $990.00.


Nice Double top too btw


----------



## Sean K

Hitler on his gold investments:


----------



## Kryzz

Sym triangle on the 4hr chart, occuring at some important resistance, not sure what gold price this is exactly (etf etc?), just from the go trader mt4 platform.


----------



## GumbyLearner

One for the Flat-earth and/or tin-hat theorists  

Federal Reserve Admits Hiding Gold Swap Arrangements, GATA Says

http://search.finance.yahoo.com/news/Federal-Reserve-Admits-Hiding-bw-2550373789.html?x=0&.v=1

MANCHESTER, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Federal Reserve System has disclosed to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. that it has gold swap arrangements with foreign banks that it does not want the public to know about.

The disclosure, GATA says, contradicts denials provided by the Fed to GATA in 2001 and suggests that the Fed is indeed very much involved in the surreptitious international central bank manipulation of the gold price particularly and the currency markets generally.

The Fed's disclosure came this week in a letter to GATA's Washington-area lawyer, William J. Olson of Vienna, Virginia (http://www.lawandfreedom.com/), denying GATA's administrative appeal of a freedom-of-information request to the Fed for information about gold swaps, transactions in which monetary gold is temporarily exchanged between central banks or between central banks and bullion banks. (See the International Monetary Fund's treatise on gold swaps here: http://www.imf.org/external/bopage/pdf/99-10.pdf.)


----------



## explod

Strange happening tonight, the usual Monday rally in the us$, but gold this time going up, *and on a Monday?* 

May be a very interesting week


----------



## Boyou

Anyone else watching the POG tonight?

Getting very close to a new high...


----------



## cuttlefish

explod said:


> Strange happening tonight, the usual Monday rally in the us$, but gold this time going up, *and on a Monday?*
> 
> May be a very interesting week







			
				boyou said:
			
		

> Anyone else watching the POG tonight?
> 
> Getting very close to a new high...





Looks like you were right explod - gold doing some more interesting gyrations again tonight (tue).


----------



## GumbyLearner

Gold running.

Let's see what the smackdown crew can come up with tonight. 

I'm excited.


----------



## explod

Yep I am awake and watching

Not saying anything, its all been said.

Cept you Gumby, go for it man/woman


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Yep I am awake and watching
> 
> Not saying anything, its all been said.
> 
> Cept you Gumby, go for it man/woman




Me too explod.

Can't really say anything either.

You have been a major contributor to this thread.

I realize as a novice that you have had many detractors over the years.

If they come to criticize you, can I be your wingman tonight? 

Oh and thanks for your gender inclusiveness. LOL


----------



## refined silver

explod said:


> Yep I am awake and watching
> 
> Not saying anything, its all been said.




Exactly.


----------



## GumbyLearner

refined silver said:


> Exactly.




I'll second that!


----------



## Gar

Fresh out the oven  

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

I've been looking for something like this for a while so I thought I'd share 



> The Kitco Gold Index has one purpose, that is to determine whether the value of gold is actual, a reflection of changes in the US Dollar value, or a combination of both.
> 
> The U.S. Dollar Index ® represents the value of the US Dollar in terms of a basket of six major foreign currencies: Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), UK Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). It is an exchange traded (FINEX) index and has become a standard used worldwide.
> 
> The Kitco Gold Index is the price of gold measured not in terms of US Dollars, but rather in terms of the same weighted basket of currencies that determine the US Dollar Index ®.
> 
> Since the Kitco Gold Index has no US Dollar component it needs to be compared to the actual US Dollar price to give it some perspective. In all of the historical and live charts that we are displaying here we’re showing both trend lines for the purposes of making this comparison. Here are a few possible situations that you may see and what the meaning could be:


----------



## explod

Gar said:


> Fresh out the oven
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
> 
> I've been looking for something like this for a while so I thought I'd share




Gold is making new highs again tonight.   The propaganda from Kitco is just that.  Gold since 2002 has gone up in all currencies by around 300%, for gold investing it is a long term thing, not a traders lot.  On Kitko the price of gold is quoted against purportedly the US dollars, index not mentioned, however we refer to it as that, a bit of a misnomer?   Gold is at all time highs in most currencies and has been for some time against the UK pound and the Euro.   The fear of the US dollar losing supremecy (and it is) has Wall Street and Co shi t ng themselves and the huge jawboning of the last week or two and the tales against gold in the local press are all testimont to that.

I am going out to help the missus with the gardening, love this daylight saving, my gold and silver can look after itself.


----------



## Dowdy

The question should be where is gold heading - it should be *where is the US dollar heading?*

And the way the US government is spending and the Fed printing, it's got no hope so expect to see gold make new highs


----------



## GumbyLearner

Snippet from Rico at BBC Asia


----------



## Gar

explod said:


> Gold is making new highs again tonight.   The propaganda from Kitco is just that.  Gold since 2002 has gone up in all currencies by around 300%, for gold investing it is a long term thing, not a traders lot.  On Kitko the price of gold is quoted against purportedly the US dollars, index not mentioned, however we refer to it as that, a bit of a misnomer?   Gold is at all time highs in most currencies and has been for some time against the UK pound and the Euro.   The fear of the US dollar losing supremecy (and it is) has Wall Street and Co shi t ng themselves and the huge jawboning of the last week or two and the tales against gold in the local press are all testimont to that.
> 
> I am going out to help the missus with the gardening, love this daylight saving, my gold and silver can look after itself.




I think you may have skimmed my post and the link too quickly explod 

Its a price chart with the USD value and the other majors combined...


----------



## explod

Gar said:


> I think you may have skimmed my post and the link too quickly explod
> 
> Its a price chart with the USD value and the other majors...




In fact I hit the link and it was the same article I read via a Kitco link in the last day or so when I then examined it closely.   In my *view*  (and everyone may have a different one, many of the recent articles and charts (and also in this instance)are very selective and as such can be misleading.   

The thing to be aware of is that the mountain of US debt and the money printing is going to trash the US dollar, but most other economies are also heading down (if not already in UK an example) the same path.

In fact at the end of the day I do not care about gold, just want to safeguard my financial stake.   And I vehemently get on this thread to alert others about that too.   You all make your own decisions though and love the alternate opinions because I am often wrong and want to learn more.


----------



## wayneL

Check out option volatilities.  

I've done a post on my blog but here is the HV/IV graph of GLD over the last three months:




....and skew


----------



## Gar

ignore the articles...

do you not find a realtime chart of the US POG against a major currency index useful?

I fail to see how you could see that as propaganda

ps. I am a bull, I just thought this might be useful to anybody who has not found a chart with an index price


----------



## wayneL

Gar said:


> ignore the articles...




Here's anothe article to ignore from MISH

Gold and the watched pot theory

It's a long article more on economics than gold, but here's a bit on the yellow stuff.

SNIP:


> Message Of Gold
> 
> The reason for the strength in gold is not US inflation. As I have pointed out many times, gold fell from 850 to 250 over the course of 20 years, with inflation every step of the way. Thus, the inflation story just does not fit.
> 
> However, it should be clear that a major financial crisis is in store following a long period of competitive currency devaluation and massive debt and derivatives expansion by nearly every major country on the planet.
> 
> The G-7 agreed to do nothing to fix this mess, nor did the previous G-20 meeting. Countries are going to do what they are going to do: follow misguided Keynesian logic that suggests one can spend one's way to prosperity even though the problem is excessive spending across the board.
> 
> Might the US dollar blow up? Yes it might. But so could the RMB if China floated it, and so could the British pound. No one seems to see the crisis brewing in Japan with a huge demographic problem, a shrinking population, falling exports, and no way to pay back its national debt.
> 
> There is seldom a mention of the problems in European banks who foolishly lent money to the Baltic States in Euros or Swiss Francs and now those Baltic country currencies have collapsed and the loans cannot be paid back. European banks also lent to Latin America and those loans are also suspect. Arguably, European banks are in worse shape than US banks, but no one talks about it, at least in the US.
> 
> Spain has unemployment approaching 20% yet must suffer through the same interest rate policy as Germany. Seldom does one hear about this either.
> 
> Certainly the UK is a complete basket case with its banks on government life support. Iceland has already blown up, who is next?
> 
> Most are not aware of the problems in China, Japan, or Europe. However, the problems in the US are universally well understood. Indeed all eyes are on the dollar and everyone is talking about deficits, monetary printing, and especially unfunded liabilities even though the latter is tomorrow's problem, not today's.
> 
> Watched Pot Theory Revisited
> 
> A watched pot may boil, but it's not likely to explode, especially when everyone watching the pot expects an explosion any second.
> 
> Indeed, it would be fitting if the Ridiculous Hype Over Secret Oil Meetings, helped form a bottom on the US dollar.
> 
> Yet, it's easy to see that a financial crisis is brewing.
> 
> Somewhere, something is going to blow sky high, but from where I sit, it's as likely to be in the Yen, the Swiss Franc, the British Pound, or something no one is watching at all as opposed to the US dollar specifically.


----------



## Gar

Sorry wayne that wasn't a response to you (if that's what you thought)

It was directed to explod


----------



## wayneL

Gar said:


> Sorry wayne that wasn't a response to you (if that's what you thought)
> 
> It was directed to explod




No worries mate, I've got a thick skin. I wasn't offended anyway, just a little tongue in cheek ... and it is only someone's opinion after all.


----------



## So_Cynical

Just had a big LOL at the TV...some expert  on late line business saying that the go was 
to invest in gold miners like LGL, KCN and NCM because they are actually making money and 
paying dividends.

Since when has Lihir ever payed a dividend?


----------



## Timmy

Gar said:


> http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
> 
> I've been looking for something like this for a while so I thought I'd share




Thanks Gar - good resource (no pun intended).


----------



## Ato

wayneL said:


> Here's anothe article to ignore from MISH
> 
> It's a long article more on economics than gold, but here's a bit on the yellow stuff.
> 
> SNIP:




Sorry, I'm not quite following you, Wayne. That article (bit you snipped?) you are saying is not worthy of being read?

If it is worthwhile, what are the implications of the yen going belly up, or Japan not being able to pay back all the money it owes? I live in Japan, and upon reading that I suddenly feel ill...


----------



## wayneL

Ato said:


> Sorry, I'm not quite following you, Wayne. That article (bit you snipped?) you are saying is not worthy of being read?
> 
> If it is worthwhile, what are the implications of the yen going belly up, or Japan not being able to pay back all the money it owes? I live in Japan, and upon reading that I suddenly feel ill...




Oh very worthy, just not directly so much about gold, the topic of the thread.


----------



## Dark1975

wayneL said:


> Here's anothe article to ignore from MISH
> 
> Gold and the watched pot theory
> 
> It's a long article more on economics than gold, but here's a bit on the yellow stuff.
> 
> SNIP:




Enjoyed the thread.Is it as simple as Gold is looked upon as a old solid War-time stock?What i mean is,In times of uncertainty people turn to commodities that they could trade in war?(As a paper currency would has no value).Not that im suggesting we are at war(just a cliche),But in uncertain times?


----------



## Ato

wayneL said:


> Oh very worthy, just not directly so much about gold, the topic of the thread.




Fair enough. My comment is OT too. I'll repost it in the imminent & severe market crash thread. If you've got an opinion on it, I'd love to hear it.


----------



## explod

From Sinclairs Minset today.

cheers on this fine morning, and with the currency differential notice fuel has been dropping in my area




> Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
> Posted: Oct 08 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: October 8, 2009 at 2:06 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> It would appear that the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates has set a fire under the Aussie and added further to the bullish tone in regards to the entire Asian currency block. It soared to just shy of the 90 level early last evening when news of an unexpectedly vigorous employment report from down under hit the wire. The surging Australian Dollar pulled the entire Asian block of currencies higher sending the US Dollar swooning in the process as even the Euro got in on the action. Traders want to own Asia as they see it recovering from the global economic slump much more quickly than the heavily indebted West.
> 
> So strong are the Asian currencies against the US Dollar that THREE Asian Central Banks were all actively intervening in the Forex markets in an attempt to stem the Dollar’s decline against their currencies.
> 
> South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines were all three buying Dollars last evening as they struggle vainly to keep some sort of export competitiveness by weakening their currencies. The problem they face is that no one wants to own the greenback and any rallies that these banks create by their bid on the Dollar are being met by speculators eager to sell the Dollar down from a higher level.
> 
> We have been saying for many years now at this site that the Dollar was headed for a Humpty Dumpty like fall but I am astounded at how rapidly sentiment has turned against it. The foolish lemming-like panic into it as a “safe haven” that dominated the Forex markets for much of the last year has abruptly shut off to be replaced by a sort of disdain and contempt reserved for the currencies of banana republics. The current US Administration seems to have turned a blinded eye to the Dollar’s woes but then again, they are mainly the cause of its demise what with their insane spending binge and reckless concern for fiscal budget deficits. The Fed cannot help either because they are locked into low interest rates for fear of squashing any nascent economic improvement.
> 
> This is why the rally in gold is so impressive – the Forex markets are setting the tone and because of their immense size, the gold price managers at the Comex are being overwhelmed.
> 
> Gold is taking out overhead resistance levels as the sentiment against the Dollar is so strong, that traders are bidding it up even before the Dollar cracked key technical support near the 76 level. If the Dollar fails to close back above that level, and it is looking increasingly likely that it will fail spectacularly there, gold could easily shoot to $1,100 in the blink of an eye.
> 
> The rise in Euro priced gold through the 700 level has been rapid as expected once that formidable barrier gave way. British Pound gold looks like it wants to move on towards the 700 level and go on and make another all time new high in the process. Things are happening very quickly now exactly as Jim has been saying for the last few months. There might be some Central Bank intervention on occasion to attempt to prevent a plunge in the Dollar but any blips produced by such actions will be short-lived as the Dollar carry trade will be merciless without any sort of higher interest rate support for the Greenback. Witness just how ineffective was ECB President Trichet’s attempt at jawboning the Euro lower. Traders slapped him in the face and told him to go back home and playh with his marbles. If traders feel that Asia has the strongest probability of raising rates in that corner of the globe compared to the West, they will continue capturing interest rate differentials producing a relentless stream of pressure against the US Dollar, all comments from Central Bankers notwithstanding.
> 
> Technically gold is performing with remarkable resiliency as intraday dips are seized by would-be buyers forcing short term oriented bears to cover repeatedly. There are plenty of analysts advising clients to wait for a pull back towards $1,020 before buying but the market thus far has not accommodated them. It is entirely possible that the longer gold refuses to see any decent sized price retracement, these sideline sitters are going to fear missing the move and will come in and force an acceleration sharply higher. We will just have to see whether or not gold will dip down far enough to let them get in near that level. With so many looking for such a move, the odds are high that they are not going to get it.
> 
> It will take some sort of stronger bounce in the Dollar to unnerve the gold bulls. It is so deeply oversold that it is due for a blip up but short sellers are eager to sell it on any move upward.
> 
> Last night Alcoa reported a decent profit and that had the equity world ablaze with happy thoughts which led to more risk trades and further US Dollar carry trade increases. The tone has thus far continued in the equity world in today’s trading session but interesting enough, the gains in gold are outpacing those of the DOW with the DOW/GOLD ratio currently running in the vicinity of 9.3. If you recall that chart I sent up earlier this week, the level near 9.0 has been a decent support level for this ratio. If the ratio breaks down near there, the implications are foreboding indeed as the inflation genie will not only have gotten out of the bottle, but will be climbing up and down the walls and breaking dishes on the floors!
> 
> The HUI today cracked that stubborn resistance level centered near the 440 level and in the process ran to make a new yearly high. I want to see how it can close both today and tomorrow for the week for if it sustains its level above 450, then next week has it primed for a run to 480 which is the last defense line between it and its all time high. It has been lagging bullion instead of leading it but one of the things that I believe which explains this is that we now have the ETF’s around. Money flows into the gold mining stocks tended to lead the metal in the past but that was because institutional investors and some funds were not allowed to buy futures because of their charters. If they wanted exposure to gold, they were forced with the default option of buying the mining shares. That is no longer the case – they can plow into the ETF instead, which by the way now claims to hold over 1100 tons of gold. While I have more than a few doubts about the ETF’s, tracking it is a much better way of analyzing the gold market from a technical perspective than are the shares as indicated by the both the HUI and the XAU. They remain very valuable as confirmation tools but I am of the opinion that more weight is being placed upon the ETF’s when managers are looking for technical clues.
> 
> Gold faded a bit going into the close of the pit session but still retained the bulks of its gains from overnight and early in the session. That bodes well for tomorrow which will be a good test of how strong the conviction of the bulls is as the opportunity to book some profits from this week’s enormous move higher will be tempting.


----------



## Boyou

I have to say i am totally gobsmacked by the lack of interest in Gold.

With the metal continuing to reach new heights,no one,apart from Explod seems to be remotely interested in it ,either from a price action point of view or fundamentally .
This could be the start of the PMB (Precious Metal Bubble)

It looks like groundhog day from where I sit!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Boyou said:


> I have to say i am totally gobsmacked by the lack of interest in Gold.
> 
> With the metal continuing to reach new heights,no one,apart from Explod seems to be remotely interested in it ,either from a price action point of view or fundamentally .
> This could be the start of the PMB (Precious Metal Bubble)
> 
> It looks like groundhog day from where I sit!




That's coz of the $AU negating any benefits for us AU's - still cant crack $1200. May have to wait till we bubble our way into a bust? That's if Glen Stevens can't control the property beast the KRudd has created?

Our exporters - commodities & manufacturers - not only have to deal with rising interest rates but also a rising exchange rate - straight from the bottom line. All is good again?

There's also the short DX squeeze that must run it's course on another 'flight to safety' market retracement event.

 Also waiting for an attempt at a knock out punch attempt to capitulate the bugs, but the new world order may just gladly step in and take the lot, and say thank you very much indeed. Who really knows these days?


----------



## explod

Boyou said:


> I have to say i am totally gobsmacked by the lack of interest in Gold.
> 
> With the metal continuing to reach new heights,no one,apart from Explod seems to be remotely interested in it ,either from a price action point of view or fundamentally .
> This could be the start of the PMB (Precious Metal Bubble)
> 
> It looks like groundhog day from where I sit!




Actually my real interest is in silver, the ratio is way out and I believe due to its coming shortage will go to 15-1

The lack of interest is due to enormous jawboning by the popular press to point out all the risks and downside to gold, not once mentioning the good side and its enormouse growth over the last 8 years in real terms, I think Uncle touched on this in a post above recently.


----------



## jancha

explod said:


> Actually my real interest is in silver, the ratio is way out and I believe due to its coming shortage will go to 15-1
> 
> Interesting point explod & nice ratio. What silver mining companies would you recommend looking at?


----------



## explod

jancha said:


> explod said:
> 
> 
> 
> Actually my real interest is in silver, the ratio is way out and I believe due to its coming shortage will go to 15-1
> 
> Interesting point explod & nice ratio. What silver mining companies would you recommend looking at?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cannot recommend.   Someone on one of the Silver threads in the last day or so indicated the main players in silver, and there are very few pure mines in Aus.
> 
> I have put them on a watch list for future consideration when silver may make a break.  They were BSM CXC EUG and TRY.   You might try to locate the thread as there was more to it that would be of interest.
> 
> But on past action getting back to topic, I expect the US gold price to move up to 1600 in the next six months.  I do not expect the Australian currency to appreciate at that pace so Aus gold ought to improve a lot in value as well.    Just my humble opinion
Click to expand...


----------



## Boyou

jancha said:


> explod said:
> 
> 
> 
> Actually my real interest is in silver, the ratio is way out and I believe due to its coming shortage will go to 15-1
> 
> Interesting point explod & nice ratio. What silver mining companies would you recommend looking at?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Good to see someone is following this thread.Thanks for your input Uncle and Explod.I am also expecting some re-alignment of the gold/silver ratio.Have been spending my spare cash on Perth Mint Kilo bars of Silver.
> Jancha ,In answer to your question the only pure silver producer in Aus (I think) is Macmin Silver. At the moment they are in administration ,but ,as I posted in the MMN thread today ,it looks like they could be resurrected with a new name and more cash to continue production.
Click to expand...


----------



## explod

Boyou said:


> jancha said:
> 
> 
> 
> Good to see someone is following this thread.Thanks for your input Uncle and Explod.I am also expecting some re-alignment of the gold/silver ratio.Have been spending my spare cash on Perth Mint Kilo bars of Silver.
> Jancha ,In answer to your question the only pure silver producer in Aus (I think) is Macmin Silver. At the moment they are in administration ,but ,as I posted in the MMN thread today ,it looks like they could be resurrected with a new name and more cash to continue production.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Agree, I have an interest lost in that, but like Orion Gold, at Walhalla, MMN will come back as the price of silver improves.   Off topic, will go over the the other one.
Click to expand...


----------



## explod

> US Dollar Crashes Through Major Support Level
> Posted: Oct 14 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: October 14, 2009 at 12:51 am
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear Friends,
> 
> This evening in Asian trade, the Japanese Minister of Finance once again restated the new view out of Japan that the level of the Yen is no longer an obsession with the monetary authorities of that nation. His comments were interpreted by the Forex markets that intervention to stem the advance of the Yen is most unlikely. With that, market participants wasted little time bidding the Yen into a strong advance.
> 
> Those statements of his, combined with that of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Donald Kohn, that the US economy would not experience a quick or sharp recovery out of its recession, were both read by traders that US interest rates were not going anywhere anytime soon. Carry traders then beat the Dollar down below critical support near the 76 level on the USDX as they rushed into higher yielding currencies such as the Aussie and Loonie. The Euro also shot up to another new yearly high.
> 
> It is looking more and more like the current Administration has set on a course of deliberate destruction of the US Dollar and with it, the economic might that the US has enjoyed since post World War II. As said many times on the pages of this web site, the profligacy of the US has inescapable consequences and we are now seeing a rapid acceleration of the same. The fall in the Dollar is picking up momentum and that is why we are witnessing gold moving into new highs.
> 
> But gold is more than a Dollar phenomenon – Gold priced in terms of British Pounds and in Euros is relentlessly moving higher as both Great Britain and Europe, the fading West, are debasing their currencies as well.
> 
> Protect yourself from the theft of your wealth by these conscienceless politicians and monetary officials for they have sold their citizenry down the river and plundered them in the process far more thoroughly than Attila and his army of Huns ever did to Rome of old. At least the Roman inhabitants were aware of the rape and pillaging of their substance – when the general public finally awakens to the despicable looting of their treasures by these reeking buzzards, they will rush into gold with a fury that will shock even many of the readers of this site.




Dan says it all, the days we have patiently waited for are on our doorstep, 

cheers to all the goldbugs on ASF

Having said that, the toll on ordinary citizens from the currency debasements and the policies to encourage people to borrow and spend instead of save takes the shine off.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Here is Paul Van Eedens take on it all, and I tend to agree. For as long as the gold price is merely a reactionary to the US dollar then there is going to be savage retracements in the POG. I'm still waiting for this next leg down (or USD rally?), and I think it's past due ie this surge is overbought?

Golds time will come when it is no longer possible to _push demand_ the worlds consumers through inflating the money supply and currency debasement - a currency race to the bottom by attempting to make their exporters competitive. Tis a pity it's at our expense ie dollar parity very soon? If the USD sucks, then why is our currency worth less than it?


----------



## Sean K

This is predominately on Inflation but mentions the effect on gold and silver. Long but worth it.


----------



## explod

Good clip Kennas, but has all been said, as you know on this and Imminnent thread.

You can take a donkey to water but cannot make it drink.

Those who know and believe, but those who do not will not.   Took me a long time to learn that, ASF has finally done that.

Glad to be holding silver


----------



## Wysiwyg

explod said:


> Glad to be holding silver



Were you buying silver when Buffet was buying at 4 $ an ounce? Highlighted, quoted, underlined and doing handstands. 



> Famous Billionaires have bought silver in recent years.* In 1997, Warren Buffet bought 130 million ounces of real silver, due to the favorable "supply and demand fundamentals"*, and although he bought as much as they would let him legally buy, his purchase was with about 2% of the value of his portfolio.




And this lil beauty from a dreamer passing on his silver to the next 5 generations of kin. 


> Thus, silver will be valued at about 1/5th of $1000, or $200, assuming that gold is fairly valued at $1000. But, if gold should really be valued at about $5,000 per ounce, then silver will be about $1000/oz."


----------



## lukeaye

explod said:


> Good clip Kennas, but has all been said, as you know on this and Imminnent thread.
> 
> You can take a donkey to water but cannot make it drink.
> 
> Those who know and believe, but those who do not will not.   Took me a long time to learn that, ASF has finally done that.
> 
> Glad to be holding silver




It is alarming, i too beleive it has all been said, but nobody wants to accept it. I mean what does the US collapse mean for the rest of the world?

i def think holding pyhsical gold or silver is a very smart thing to do.

I remember reading about a particular incident in the first world war. I cant remember the country exactly, or the currency. Anyway, they had such huge probelms with the country and the currecny was devaluing at an astronimcal rate due to the hyper inflation from the war. The government ended up changing the currency, to prevent people from leaving the country, the only people that had any wealth were those who had the forsight to change it all to gold, which is worth something anywhere.


----------



## lukeaye

o i see the video covered my story haha.

well there you go


----------



## Ageo

Good video Kennas, i have alot more people asking me for payment in gold for general services which is funny.

Personally i would take commodities over fiat any day.


----------



## Sean K

I am actually hoping we don't quickly get to the stage this vidoe is predicting, unless there are some significant changes made. I have many family and friends who will be going through their retirement in very poor condition. 

Come on decision makers! Find a way out!!!


----------



## explod

Wysiwyg said:


> Were you buying silver when Buffet was buying at 4 $ an ounce? Highlighted, quoted, underlined and doing handstands.




Dont know about Buffet, knew that he did.  I purchased my prime holding of silver bars in 2004(about $8 oz Aus),  has not appreciated a great deal yet, but confident that it will serve my family well in the long term


----------



## jancha

explod said:


> Dont know about Buffet, knew that he did.  I purchased my prime holding of silver bars in 2004(about $8 oz Aus),  has not appreciated a great deal yet, but confident that it will serve my family well in the long term




Hi Explod 

I have noticed that with the increase of gold prices, some of the mining companies of gold seem to be heading north quite quickly so if price of gold has increased and gold companies benefiting why then has ASX Code GOLD dipped to $111. Maybe a silly question but shouldn't it head north also?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

jancha said:


> Hi Explod
> 
> I have noticed that with the increase of gold prices, some of the mining companies of gold seem to be heading north quite quickly so if price of gold has increased and gold companies benefiting why then has ASX Code GOLD dipped to $111. Maybe a silly question but shouldn't it head north also?




Exchange rate. Aussie gold could be headed lower. Unless Aussie co's sell in USD's then as long as the AUD keeps going to parity and beyond then the US price has to appreciate a lot faster just for the AU price to stay steady. 

I'm not sure Aussie gold equity buyers understand this simple concept ie they seem to respond more to the US price than to the AU price for some reason. 

In fact some Aussie miners SP's were lower when the AU price was $1500 - work that one out. But as long as someone wants to buy them off me who's complaining? 

There's going to be a better time to buy physical I think, just have to be patient? It's certainly not the time to sell?


----------



## Ageo

Gold is a store of wealth which means you only sell what you need to in order to keep going. The rest just hold and over time it will outperform fiat which is the main purpose of it.

I put gold away for my daughter not money because i know in 20yrs gold will have much more purchasing power than paper.


Silver is a very good long term investment (20-30+yrs) as its still cheap to acquire large amounts. Basically you could acquire 100kgs for around $50,000 and if it does hit $1000p/o in the future sometime that would equate to around $3.2million.

But who knows by then, perhaps everything will be priced in euros or commodities will just have its own price where 1 ounce of gold will buy you xxxxx or something along those lines.

Always be prepared for the unexpected.


----------



## explod

I think that some of our gold producers sell into US dollars.  Certainly Newmont and others that have diversification with mines in other countries.  

On that score of course if as a simple example:-

A company produces gold at say $US700 per ounce, has been selling at $900, price goes to $1000 then a 50% increase on profits.  So regardless of exchange rates, in my view if gold is suddenly to rise beyond US$1500 then the numbers from profit go up enourmously.

1970 to 1980 some gold producers went up 100 times.  Having the right ones in the right currency will be the trick though, if US$ turns to no more than the cost of the paper its written on then that is going to be a problem.  No doubt we will be in the game when this thing goes up, but due to danger of currency collapse I like having my physical as well.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> I think that some of our gold producers sell into US dollars.  Certainly Newmont and others that have diversification with mines in other countries.
> 
> On that score of course if as a simple example:-
> 
> A company produces gold at say $US700 per ounce, has been selling at $900, price goes to $1000 then a 50% increase on profits.  So regardless of exchange rates, in my view if gold is suddenly to rise beyond US$1500 then the numbers from profit go up enourmously.
> 
> 1970 to 1980 some gold producers went up 100 times.  Having the right ones in the right currency will be the trick though, if US$ turns to no more than the cost of the paper its written on then that is going to be a problem.  No doubt we will be in the game when this thing goes up, but due to danger of currency collapse I like having my physical as well.




Yes, I get a div from NEM, but it still gets converted to AU, as would any return to AUS gold co's eventually to pay their bills etc.

The AU price has dropped $20 today via the combination of US price and FX rate. The AU price has flatlined for the past 6 months? 

I just think that any plans to contend with a USD demise will be more than countered by a corresponding rise in the FX rate, unless and until something happens to the AU economy to make it _relatively_ worse to that of the USA?

If the assumptions are in fact correct and we become largely dependant on China, then gold might not be a good USD counter trade for Australians - I've certainly made more in other sectors while pretty ordinary returns from gold lately?


----------



## jancha

explod said:


> I think that some of our gold producers sell into US dollars.  Certainly Newmont and others that have diversification with mines in other countries.
> 
> On that score of course if as a simple example:-
> 
> A company produces gold at say $US700 per ounce, has been selling at $900, price goes to $1000 then a 50% increase on profits.  So regardless of exchange rates, in my view if gold is suddenly to rise beyond US$1500 then the numbers from profit go up enourmously.
> 
> 1970 to 1980 some gold producers went up 100 times.  Having the right ones in the right currency will be the trick though, if US$ turns to no more than the cost of the paper its written on then that is going to be a problem.  No doubt we will be in the game when this thing goes up, but due to danger of currency collapse I like having my physical as well.




Very interesting. So when looking at a gold company that exchanges with US currency you would think twice under the present circumstances? PRU for example ( I think ) deals in African Aus & USA currencies. Would that be a better option as opposed to just trading with the one currency when looking to invest in a gold mining company?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> If the assumptions are in fact correct and we become largely dependant on China, then gold might not be a good USD counter trade for Australians - I've certainly made more in other sectors while pretty ordinary returns from gold lately?





Interesting, those into it, run on similar lines, I have not had a gold stock for two months(last was OGC ( to which I will return), all in energy at the moment.

Thanks for your valuable inputs Uncle


----------



## cuttlefish

Overall currencies are going to devalue due to excessive expansion of money supply.  Australia is no exception - just not as excessive as others - so the AUD is just climbing a ladder but the ladder is on an escalator that is going down and that escalator is the USD.  The more people selling USD to get off the descending escalator the faster the escalator will fall and the more rapidly the gold price will rise against all currencies that are on the descending escalator, and the effect of the AUD climbing a ladder on the escalator will be irrelevant.  (DISCLOSURE:  I've had a couple of beers this pleasant Fri evening.  ).


----------



## GumbyLearner

cuttlefish said:


> Overall currencies are going to devalue due to excessive expansion of money supply.  Australia is no exception - just not as excessive as others - so the AUD is just climbing a ladder but the ladder is on an escalator that is going down and that escalator is the USD.  The more people selling USD to get off the descending escalator the faster the escalator will fall and the more rapidly the gold price will rise against all currencies that are on the descending escalator, and the effect of the AUD climbing a ladder on the escalator will be irrelevant.  (DISCLOSURE:  I've had a couple of beers this pleasant Fri evening.  ).




An alternative view is to look at it from an M/A perspective. Aussie/Canadian based miners will have to pay less for competitors who deal primarily in US dollars. Just a thought.


----------



## hobo-jo

jancha said:


> Interesting point explod & nice ratio. What silver mining companies would you recommend looking at?




Check out CCU, still in the process of defining their resource (will probably see increases in resource/grade), good management (MD 20 years experience ex-WMC), low market cap, 50m+ oz Silver resource, lead credits expected to provide very cheap cash cost to mine, production potential by 2011...have posted some updates in the CCU thread here, but seems not much interest yet in silver and gold miners from general investors. That will change in my opinion 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3912

Disclosure: I own CCU shares


----------



## forestlevy

lukeaye said:


> It is alarming, i too beleive it has all been said, but nobody wants to accept it. I mean what does the US collapse mean for the rest of the world?
> 
> i def think holding pyhsical gold or silver is a very smart thing to do.
> 
> I remember reading about a particular incident in the first world war. I cant remember the country exactly, or the currency. Anyway, they had such huge probelms with the country and the currecny was devaluing at an astronimcal rate due to the hyper inflation from the war. The government ended up changing the currency, to prevent people from leaving the country, the only people that had any wealth were those who had the forsight to change it all to gold, which is worth something anywhere.




U mean Germany,Poland and Austria.
However, governments now, especially developed countries', won't let a hyper inflation happen. See if they can handle this by aborting current crazy liquidity policy.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I still think gold will be the ultimate winner, but in the meantime there ain't gonna be much money to be made, apart from special situation eg takeovers etc and unless we get another round of GFC, which is _highly likely_ despite all the green shooters prognostications based on ephemeral data changes...

The problem for Oz gold advocates is that at present as a country we have escaped the so called GFC fairly well, which means that in contrast to others who have re-inflated their money supply into financial sponges which soak up the liquidity and doesn't get to the real economy, our liquidity efforts have gone straight into property & shares in search of yield. 

The US dollar carry trade is alive and well, and it looks as if some of that is being directed to our high yeilding dollar as well as being needed to purchase our local stocks. You add that to the yeild differential traders and Mr Stevens has more than once indicated the problem and his intention of what he will do about it. 

This means rising interest rates, a rising dollar and a static UA gold price, provided of course the USD gold keeps going up as well? The only way we will make any bonanza money from gold stocks is if we get another round of risk aversion similar to the climate which took Oz gold to $1500 ie major panic into the USD at the same time as a panic flight to gold, and depending on whether this time it's the last hurrah for capitalism itself will depend on whether gold will be the last hard currency standing?

Between now & then the odds are against Oz goldies?


----------



## GumbyLearner

UPDATE: China 2008 Net Gold Imports 112 Tons - Minsheng Exec 
By James Campbell
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--China imported 112 metric tons of gold in 2008, an executive at China Minsheng Banking Corp. (600016.SH) said Thursday.

A rise in net imports was driven by 176% growth in investment demand for the yellow metal, which hit 68 tons, and 21% growth in jewelry demand to 326 tons, said Lila Lu, the Beijing-based head of precious metals at China Minsheng Bank.

According to official estimates, China's gold mine production reached 282 tons in 2008, making the country the biggest producer in the world.

But that hasn't been enough to meet rising demand in the country, which is increasingly looking to gold as a means to diversify its large foreign exchange reserves.

"Exploration investment has only picked in the past two years, so mine supply output growth will not keep pace with (rising) demand," Lu said at Gold Outlook 2009, a gathering of industry participants.

"For the next five years, China will still be a net importer," she said. 

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=4f0783ef-cfdd-4598-9ccd-0608b4ec8369


----------



## legoman

GumbyLearner said:


> According to official estimates, China's gold mine production reached 282 tons in 2008, making the country the biggest producer in the world.




Gee, massive stat


----------



## cuttlefish

What I think is interesting about that stat of 282 tonnes is the dollar value.

282 tonnes = 282 000 000 grams = (31g/oz) =  9,096,774 ounces = ($1050/oz) = $9, 551, 612, 903 = $9.5 billion

Contrast this to the dollar value of new debt/treasuries etc. created by the US in the past year which is in the trillions - i.e.  hundreds of times China's annual gold production  (and I believe world gold production is of the order of about 80 million ounces so about $80 billion - still tiny compared to the  amount of money being 'created' annually).

In fact the US is currently running a budget deficit of 1.42 trillion.  At say 3% interest rates, the interest on that budget deficit alone is $40 billion.

Total US national debt is running at $12 Trillion at the moment, with the interest on that being $380 billion (souce wall st journal 12th Oct 09: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704429304574467071019099570.html).

If there was even just a small exodus of holders of US debt assets switching into gold it would create significant pressure on the gold price.  The wall street journal article linked to above states that the White House Office of Management and Budget expects the deficit to grow to $9 trillion and discusses the possibility of US national debt increasing to $21 trillion over the coming 10 years - and possibly much higher.


----------



## cuttlefish

The XGD (Aus gold index) chart is at an interesting point as of Friday.  Not sure what caused the exceptionally high volume.  (possibly heavy volume of KCN traded? or is it related to derivatives expiry given there'd be an increased volume of gold derivatives being traded lately?)  Either wayit  shows up on the chart as one of the highest volume days ever.


----------



## wayneL

Quote from Nouriel Roubini FWIW



> Roubini: I don’t believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there’s slack in the labor markets with unemployment peeking above 10 percent in all the advanced economies. So there’s no inflation, and there’s not going to be for the time being.
> 
> The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon, if you have another depression. But we’ve avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30 percent unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don’t see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon.


----------



## GumbyLearner

wayneL said:


> Quote from Nouriel Roubini FWIW




Back at Mr Roubini

What about 5-10 years from now?


----------



## explod

Roubini reminds me of Reni Rivkin, (who I followed closely).  When he is spruiking *sell* he himself will be accumulating.

Inflation plays a part but it is the  printing of money and its dilution that will  drive the gold price.  The level of price is not so important it is the maintenance of your equity.

His rhetorical spin gives him away.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Harmony Chief says the gold price above $1000 Us an ounce is unsustainable.

http://www.miningweekly.com/article...-unsustainable-in-long-run-harmony-2009-10-26


By: Chanel Pringle
26th October 2009
Updated 1 hour 16 minutes ago
TEXT SIZE
Text Smaller Disabled Text Bigger


JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – The recent gold price spike, which had seen gold trading at above $1 000/oz, was unlikely to be sustainable in the long run, as this had largely been driven by short-term factors, Harmony Gold chairperson Patrice Motsepe said in the group’s 2009 annual report, which was released on Monday.

The gold price had reached a record above $1 070/oz in the middle of October.

Harmony CEO Graham Briggs added that the gold price, in rand and in dollar terms, had been on a rollercoaster, with the prices not moving in unison.

He told shareholders that the rand strength had seen the rand gold price decline to R231 000/kg in the past five months of the year ended June 30, 2009, down from R320 000/kg before.

“Observers have commented at length on why the gold price has not continued to rise. I would suggest that the metal – while faring substantially better than other metals during the global economic downturn – has indeed been held back by consumer and investor uncertainty and caution,” stated Briggs.

He added that jewellery demand has also softened and that scrap gold was becoming an important component of gold supply.

*Get ready!
*
http://www.geomancy.net/upload/2010-year-of-tiger.gif


----------



## lasty

Roubini misses out on point three.
He speaks of inflation and deflation (depression) but what about getting out of US dollars and the changing of an economic powerhouse. ie US to China?
Gold above $1000 is sustainable, however I think we are in for a correction therefore equity,commodities and currencies should give back some gains over the next few sessions.


----------



## Tradesurfer

I think I've been saying this for a while, but when was the last time that the "crowd" has been right? EVERYONE is saying that massive inflation is coming and Gold is going to the moon. In the US, I see more invest in gold commercials now than ever. Covers of magazines talking about it etc etc.

Now from a technical picture- gold did break out and hold above 1000. Longs might have a stop loss set a bit below there. But really gold has been in a range for some time compared to other things.

The nice thing about followign price is that you are not making bets- only following the trend. 

My mailman the other day was asking me if he should go all-in on gold mutual funds. 

I think my mailman in March of 2000 was retiring to become a daytrader.

Anyway

cheers

Derek


----------



## sinner

Tradesurfer said:


> I think I've been saying this for a while, but when was the last time that the "crowd" has been right? EVERYONE is saying that massive inflation is coming and Gold is going to the moon. In the US, I see more invest in gold commercials now than ever. Covers of magazines talking about it etc etc.
> 
> Now from a technical picture- gold did break out and hold above 1000. Longs might have a stop loss set a bit below there. But really gold has been in a range for some time compared to other things.
> 
> The nice thing about followign price is that you are not making bets- only following the trend.
> 
> My mailman the other day was asking me if he should go all-in on gold mutual funds.
> 
> I think my mailman in March of 2000 was retiring to become a daytrader.
> 
> Anyway
> 
> cheers
> 
> Derek




I think the inflation argument is DEAD. Dead as a god-damned door knob and I wish people would stop talking about it.

Fact of the matter is: silver did not make a new all time high. Therefore, this gold bull is not based on monetary inflation. 

End of story.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> I think the inflation argument is DEAD. Dead as a god-damned door knob and I wish people would stop talking about it.
> 
> Fact of the matter is: silver did not make a new all time high. Therefore, this gold bull is not based on monetary inflation.
> 
> End of story.




Inflation is not dead, in the last few years the price of fuel has gone through the roof.   Two years ago you could buy a slab of beer for $32, today it is $44 a bottle of whisky $28 to $35  Many items on the shelves in the supermarkets have not only gone up but they have reduced the contents.  Pencils I buy have gone up 120%  Houses have gone up, cars, entertainment, school fees way above the official stats.

Sinner you are in dream (make that *think*) land

Do your own anecdotal research and you will find the authorities are lying with thier stats ol son


----------



## explod

There has been little action in gold of note, the last week or so a down bias but in my view a very siginifcant change has occurred during the NY session this morning.

Gold for a year or two now has followed the general market, with an upward bias, but big moves on the Dow take gold with it in the immediate term.

Last night the Dow dropped steadily during the session to end 251 points lower (2,5%) and gold went down with it for the first three hours into the session.   However it made a remarkable recovery from that point and rose for the rest of the session whilst the dow continued its slide.  As we head into the close gold has all but recovered its losses for the week and most of that in the last day, quite at odds with both end of month contract settlements and the fall in the market.

This decoupling in my view is a very bullish sign and maybe the flights to safety this time will be to where true holding value is. IMHO

Time will show the way but interesting times.


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> Inflation is not dead, in the last few years the price of fuel has gone through the roof.   Two years ago you could buy a slab of beer for $32, today it is $44 a bottle of whisky $28 to $35  Many items on the shelves in the supermarkets have not only gone up but they have reduced the contents.  Pencils I buy have gone up 120%  Houses have gone up, cars, entertainment, school fees way above the official stats.
> 
> Sinner you are in dream (make that *think*) land
> 
> Do your own anecdotal research and you will find the authorities are lying with thier stats ol son




trouble is this is all IMO not due to more dollars being printed but due to more credit being created and as always the only posible end to too much credit being created is default or deflation. and your right temporarily prices are moving up ie inflation but when this ends they will retrace far more than we expect if history is any guide


----------



## sinner

Buying gold today at 1045.5 with a 9 point stop loss (1036.4) with the justification of possible end of wave 4 down to be followed by wave 5 up (the big divergent one). Trading small sized, don't mind being wrong.


----------



## sinner

Gold showing a high possibility of wave 4 completion to begin a move into wave 5. This could be the big one people. I am targetting well above the previous highs!

Hourly chart showing last nights pre-Frankfurt entry:



Daily chart showing possible beginnings of final wave up of bullish impulse for gold:



EDIT: Worth noting that on the hourly we have already completed five possible waves up so the ride up from here could be a bit rocky!


----------



## explod

Looks like you were spot on Sinner, good call.   The following from J/S Mineset s Trader Dan



> Posted: Nov 03 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: November 3, 2009 at 2:51 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> News overnight that India was going to stand for half of the proposed IMF gold sale sent shock waves through the gold bear camp resulting in a near panic among trapped shorts. Their buying sent prices ripping through overhead resistance just above the $1,070 level setting off a cascade of pre-placed buy stops that propelled gold above $1,080, a mere $20 from psychologically significant $1,100.
> 
> By the way, let me take a minute here to give a Hat Tip to Jim who has been saying for YEARS (and received a fair amount of trash talk for so doing), that any gold sold under an IMF arrangement would never see the light of day as Central Banks would gobble it all up. That is precisely what India did and I am convinced that China is also looking to do. As a matter of fact, India probably got the jump on China because they knew that they were lurking in the background looking to buy.
> 
> How many times over the last few years did we hear talk about IMF gold sales just about the time gold was threatening to put in a technical break out on the price charts. The news would cause a near panic among ignorant analysts and talking heads who would promptly advise their clients to dump their long positions playing right into the hands of those who originally trotted out the story. Let’s hope that after today, gold longs are no longer the least bit troubled by any further chatter concerning IMF gold sales. Do not forget, that the Central Banks of the rising powerhouse economies of the East are looking to diversify their foreign reserves and need large block sales of gold at a preset price in order to facilitate an order of the magnitude that they are placing. Try obtaining 200 tons of gold on the open market! That is why they welcome such large sized gold sales.
> 
> What makes the surge higher in gold even more impressive is that it came in the face of a weaker Euro, a stronger Dollar, and most particularly, a dropping equity market. The net result of such occurrences is that gold moves higher in terms of nearly all of the major foreign currencies. Gold priced in terms of Euros is at its best level since March of this year with British Pound priced gold back near the 650 level.
> 
> Based on today’s price action, one would have to say that the price of gold has consolidated long enough above $1,000 that the market has now come to terms with a permanently higher gold price of 4 figures. Without wanting to be premature, gold under $1,000 would undoubtedly be viewed now as a bargain. That is why markets that move higher, consolidate, move higher, consolidate, etc, are sustainable bull runs. The run and pause effect gives the industry TIME to become acclimated to the new, higher price level whereas markets that launch into parabolic type blow offs, while spectacular, are generally unsustainable and short lived in the broader scheme of things. They come crashing back to earth as quickly, if not faster, than they went up.



 ... report continues on js mineset

Took a good position in OGC yesterday as the move was on but the jump overnight is very bullish in my view now.

Gold US is up 49% for the last 12 months,  cheers to the bugs


----------



## explod

Full report continued from previous post:-



> The mining shares, while still lagging far behind the price of bullion, are sharply higher today as the market now has to reprice those shares to allow for the changing dynamics of the gold market. A fair number of our readers keep asking me about the shares and why they are performing so poorly compared to the metal itself. My view is that the Gold ETF’s have sucked a large amount of investment capital that would normally be flowing into the shares into those particular investment vehicles. The big funds can leverage those up and obtain the same effect that they used the mining share purchases for, namely as a way to obtain leveraged exposure to the gold price.
> 
> Jim has written a masterpiece about the gold shares that is a must read for anyone who has exposure to this sector that deals specifically with what to expect in these moving forward. I urge the readers to refer to that often. Those miners with exposure to non-recourse loans and the inherent short-of-gold derivative are now seeing what Jim warned them about years ago.
> 
> The Dow Jones/Gold ratio is currently trading exactly at “9” as I write this. You might recall that chart I put up not all that long ago where I noted that the ratio near “9” has been a floor of support. If this level gives way, it will indicate that savvy investors who can read the tea leaves of the US economy have seen the handwriting on the wall and understand that the lake of inflation is relentlessly rising behind the dam of illusionary wealth soon to break forth with a fury. As said so many times on this site by Jim, Monty and myself, you cannot print your way to prosperity. If that were the case, it would have been successfully attempted long, long ago by nations throughout the course of history. Sadly, our current monetary officials and political leaders are oblivious to this truth and refuse to back away from their reckless policies and short-sighted courses of action. The Dollar, while moving higher today, is a catastrophe waiting to occur. The collapsing Dow/Gold ratio says it all.
> 
> Bonds are moving lower in tandem with stocks today which is unusual. I have not been able to clearly read the bond market ( then again I know of no one else who can for that matter these days) but perhaps the surge in the gold price caught bond traders’ attention and they are a bit more worried about inflation than they are the lower equities. Bonds are probably going to have to get below the 117 level and stay there to flip the inflation/deflation battle over to the inflationist camp. All I can say is that you could not pay me to hold a US debt obligation. They are nothing but confetti paper in my opinion as the world is literally awash in them.
> 
> Back to gold for a brief moment – volume in the gold pit is very strong today and most impressive. This move is coming with a lot of emotion particularly fear among the gold shorts. The weaker ones were blown out – the only selling left is the bullion banks but it should be noted that they have not been able to cap the price below the early morning price peak. Buying is quite persistent and is eating through the overhead selling allowing the market to move higher and put in a new peak as it moves further into the session. That is not the norm that we have grown accustomed to seeing in this market.


----------



## explod

Dan's chart that goes with above report

cheers explod


----------



## moXJO

Finally broke the AUS $1200 mark


----------



## sinner

explod, like I said in my original call, long with an eye to *wave 5*.

That means this is it. This will be the big wave up that will cause everyones daily oscillators to diverge bearishly and there will be an a-b-c correction after that.

Silver is still not rising. Light crude still under 80. Financials are regaining last weeks losses. If this is inflation I am a chicken.

PS: In dreamland do they have dictionaries? Hell, do you know where Zimbabwe is? Because what you described doesn't even come close to meeting the definition of inflation. You described stagflation, and in my opinion we aren't there yet and won't be for years to come. 

How many times will I have to paste  this link?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/humpty-dumpty-on-inflation.html

I am long here only so I feel safe going short higher up


----------



## Ageo

moXJO said:


> Finally broke the AUS $1200 mark




 Refiners have bumped there spread a tad...... Looks like something is in the mix.

As long as the dollar settles and the gold continues to push we will see another  physical gold rush in this country.

Remember once the home owners grant finishes and interest rates continue to rise its going to change peoples view in the market.

Another dump in any major sector (like real estate or shares) will cause people to become very conservative with their investments/spending which can be only good news for gold.


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> Refiners have bumped there spread a tad...... Looks like something is in the mix.
> 
> As long as the dollar settles and the gold continues to push we will see another  physical gold rush in this country.
> 
> Remember once the home owners grant finishes and interest rates continue to rise its going to change peoples view in the market.
> 
> Another dump in any major sector (like real estate or shares) will cause people to become very conservative with their investments/spending which can be only good news for gold.




I am not convinced by his arguments, he applies many examples in selective isolation and IMHO looks very much a supprter of the PPP

His last quote fits him well



> 'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,' it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.'
> 
> 'The question is,' said Alice, 'whether you can make words mean so many different things.'
> 
> 'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, 'which is to be master - that's all.'




Most of the deflation of which he speaks has occurred, sure there will be some more to come as businesses without financial support crash further but to me the recent turn up in cash rates (only litle shoots yet), driven by lack of demand and particularly a lack of interst by the banks will soon see a big change in inflation rates.  

In my very humble opinion of course.

cheers to the patient bugs

Only time will tell the real story.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> I am not convinced by his arguments, he applies many examples in selective isolation and IMHO looks very much a supprter of the PPP
> 
> His last quote fits him well
> 
> 
> 
> Most of the deflation of which he speaks has occurred, sure there will be some more to come as businesses without financial support crash further but to me the recent turn up in cash rates (only litle shoots yet), driven by lack of demand and particularly a lack of interst by the banks will soon see a big change in inflation rates.
> 
> In my very humble opinion of course.
> 
> cheers to the patient bugs
> 
> Only time will tell the real story.




The patient bugs have barely made a dollar over this entire financial crisis if they live in Australia. Gold has to have been the dumbest investment for Aussie gold bugs to make. In fact this issue was clearly discussed several times in the January period on this thread, what happens if AUD starts to rise faster than gold?

I find it extremely amusing that you are claiming Australian cash rate increase is justification for your idea of global inflation. If only the RBA had that much juice.

This is a plain fact you cannot deny: being long XAU/AUD is the worst investment anyone could have made any time after Oct 08. Could have done better being long GS or JPM.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> IMHO looks very much a supprter of the PPP




Calling Mish a supporter of the PPP, you have to be kidding, seriously, I am done discussing this with you.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> explod,
> 
> How many times will I have to paste  this link?
> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/humpty-dumpty-on-inflation.html




Well it seems to have been ignored by others, I had, but thought I would give you my humble opinion on it as you seemed to be looking for a response.  Sorry it is not what you wanted.

There are many ways in which to leverage against the gold price, although the aussie gold price may be negative there is a lot of sentiment in gold stocks and swing trading some of them have been fabulous for me.  

US gold is up 49% in the last 12 months and that has a big psychological impact.   

However gold is only one sector in which I trade, energy stocks have also been very good to me.

My interest in gold is about wealth preservation and my own view that it is way under real value, inflation adjusted.  A readjustment will in my view occur soon.

We will just have to wait and see, and sorry that you do not want to debate.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Well it seems to have been ignored by others, I had, but thought I would give you my humble opinion on it as you seemed to be looking for a response.  Sorry it is not what you wanted.
> 
> There are many ways in which to leverage against the gold price, although the aussie gold price may be negative there is a lot of sentiment in gold stocks and swing trading some of them have been fabulous for me.
> 
> US gold is up 49% in the last 12 months and that has a big psychological impact.
> 
> However gold is only one sector in which I trade, energy stocks have also been very good to me.
> 
> My interest in gold is about wealth preservation and my own view that it is way under real value, inflation adjusted.  A readjustment will in my view occur soon.
> 
> We will just have to wait and see, and sorry that you do not want to debate.




Pretty funny for someone who believes the financial world is coming to an end is still willing to buy stocks.


----------



## GoodCall

sinner said:


> The patient bugs have barely made a dollar over this entire financial crisis if they live in Australia. Gold has to have been the dumbest investment for Aussie gold bugs to make. In fact this issue was clearly discussed several times in the January period on this thread, what happens if AUD starts to rise faster than gold?
> 
> I find it extremely amusing that you are claiming Australian cash rate increase is justification for your idea of global inflation. If only the RBA had that much juice.
> 
> This is a plain fact you cannot deny: being long XAU/AUD is the worst investment anyone could have made any time after Oct 08. Could have done better being long GS or JPM.




Excuse me if I have misunderstood you and I did not read the thread in January when it was discussed.

If you were long on gold bullion directly or indirectly via the ETFs during the GFC, then you did a lot better than other asset classes in USD and gold bullion even rose to all time highs in other currencies including the AUD.  During the crisis, the Australian gold ETF GOLD.AX made an all time high while most stocks were tanking and the price of gold bullion in AUD reached its all time high of approx. $1500 in February 09.  This is easily verified by consulting the gold currency charts at kitco.

You are correct about the gold miners, they did fall a lot more than other asset classes due to many factors including their leverage to the gold price and their need for credit etc.  This shows that investing in gold bullion and shares in gold miners are different investments and should not be conflated together.

Disclosure:  I owned during the GFC and still own shares in GOLD.AX and would have made a lot of money had I chosen to sell in February 09.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Pretty funny for someone who believes the financial world is coming to an end is still willing to buy stocks.





You are obviously on another wavelength.  I do not think the financial world will end at all.   On current methodology and value it is in for a servere correction.  The powers that be will not like that and yes a risk in holding stocks in a lock down.

But then it depends on what stocks, when and holding timeframe.  I for example did a good buy of OGC 2 days ago and got out today with a tidy 12%, if everything had locked down I feel confident on my own analysis that I would eventually get my value back and perhaps more in this stock.  I rarely have more than two stocks in the market at one time and I watch the bejesus out of them from start to finish.  

Hoving said that, the observant will be aware days before due to market behaviour when the big crash is niegh.   On the start of the October crash I was totally out of my long positions within days.  It was very evident for a week, by the charts and by the news. 

I think gold will have a correction in the next few days, huge resistance building up and a correction down will strengthen that point.


----------



## GumbyLearner

sinner said:


> Pretty funny for someone who believes the financial world is coming to an end is still willing to buy stocks.




You know what is funny sinner? Gold is up 40% in 12 months.
Well fun for buyers during this time indeed.

The tier one capital ratios you have spoken about in the past and the recent writedowns of bad debts from ANZ and NAB. Now that is equally, if not more humourous IMO.

I don't believe the financial world is coming to an end, in the main it has colluded with big government in the US and UK to bail itself out. So no doubt it has survived and in part will survive. Gold man sucks (Turntables' previous employer) is now bigger than ever courtesy of this. Lloyd's has lost it's mantle as the largest merchant bank in Europe and RBS is still a basket case and has sold it's vast Asian assets. 

So yeah, your right the financial world hasn't come to end and neither has the life support upon which many huge banks have survived. But the recipe that created this disaster hasn't changed one bit. 

It's a whole new ball game out there now and no historical precedent exists as to the outcome (eg. QE, monetary stimulus, bailouts etc..) It is completely unchartered territory, nobody can claim to have a clue as to what will transpire. You could call it speculation, I call it bad ****ing news for the over-leveraged. I for one will not be dusting off the violin if there are more major bank failures for either the governments who have bailed them out or the finance (and I say finance as distinct from industrial capitalists who actually make things) capitalists they have rescued.

Of course within an Australian context, the regulatory framework governing banks is both sound and sensible. Aussies should thank Paul Keating for that, because this country's banks would probably be just as rooted as those in Europe and the US had M&A allowed foreign speculators to self-regulate the financial markets in Australia. Although Real Estate prices are in a bubble, and if the Real Estate crowd want to thump their chests about supply/demand arguments and lack of housing in Australia, well then the commodity bulls have every right to use the exact same argument. The Real Estate bugs can bow to Keynes and the gold bugs can look to Kondratiev in the hope that they are not laughed into a gulag. But there haven't been any handouts for the gold-bugs. But don't worry I'm not guts-aching over this. I'm glad because what I hold is mine and no third-party or blind intermediary can lease it, gamble it, short it or in anyway screw with it without my permit.  

Remember this attempt to keep both the corpses alive ( Zombie banks) also happened in Japan about 3 decades ago. As I'm sure you are aware it has produced nothing but deflation as a result. 

But I think the situation is entirely different for commodity producing countries with finite resources and double digit growth developing economies to sell the stuff.

Roubini said last night that $2000 oz Au within the next 10 years was utter nonsense. Well I think bailouts for the leveraged morons on Wall Street is diabolical nonsense. 

So sit back and enjoy the party mate. Because it's not over yet by a long shot!


Also, I really enjoyed what Niall Ferguson had to recently.

Here's the link:  

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aGbRse3KUmgU

All the best
DYOR
gumby


----------



## Ageo

I know what sinner is trying to say as gold was sitting at around 1140AU for ages and just recently it broke through.

1200 seems to be the benchmark at the moment but with the weak USD its hard to say whats going to happen next.

But 1 thing i know if the AUD drops then we are going to see another frenzy like Feb this yr.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I must admit to knowing very little about gold, except that it is nice to look at and everyone wants to have some.

I have only ever bought physical gold and have bars buried here and there.

I have no idea where the price is going, but have noticed that when everyone thinks it is going to go up, it goes down , and vice versa.

Given our Foreign Policy at the moment, I like to keep gold for when the Taliban decide to come down the Bruce Highway, I'll stick it in me Burkah and go to the nearest airport.

It will always have some value.

gg


----------



## GumbyLearner

Sri Lankan central bank chief declares hand and follows recent news of gold buying by India's central bank. Thailand central bank chief not interested in accumulating more bullion.

http://www.commodityonline.com/futu...Sri-Lanka-shoring-up-gold-reserves-12649.html


----------



## rbourne1

There's some great posts on this topic and some excellent technical and fundamental analysis. I would add that before you go into any investment you want it to be a high probability outcome. At the moment, gold fits that description. It's been well documented that gold is used as a hedge against inflation and the strength in the gold price is a sign of the support that many investors see global inflation as a high probability outcome.
With many governments across the globe still printing money in the form of currency or issuing treasury notes, it's not hard to see why so many currencies are falling in value.
When signs of the economic recovery comes to these countries (unless they go bankrupt first!) then we'll see inflation become more of a problem with increased prices, wages, etc. That's when I think gold will take off. Along the way there is going to be profit taking and rallies in the US dollar to cool the gold price but the trend has been and will remain UP for a long time to come. Time to get that metal detector out again.


----------



## chatty

Just another side of the coin who strongly believe in deflation

This guy is pretty good.
http://www.youtube.com/user/endlessmountain#p/f/7/EXBRyxl8gPg


----------



## bloomy88

chatty said:


> Just another side of the coin who strongly believe in deflation
> 
> This guy is pretty good.
> http://www.youtube.com/user/endlessmountain#p/f/7/EXBRyxl8gPg




Very interesting video imo


----------



## barrett

Overhead resistance ahoy... might be an opportunity to trade out of my SGX now they are being taken over.

Interesting to notice the expanding range in this last few months' uptrend - I guess this would have encouraged Paul Tudor Jones (ref. Market Wizards) to take his recent large long position in gold:  

“I have never been a gold bug,” Jones, whose company manages about $11.6 billion out of Greenwich, Connecticut, told investors in an Oct. 15 letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. “It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=anNG9T__.c_M
http://seekingalpha.com/article/170...ervalued-and-bonds-are-a-curve-flattener-play

According to a financialsense.com interview last week, nearly all the gold newsletters have turned bearish, suggesting that many gold investors are on the sidelines in disbelief...


----------



## skyQuake

Agree with the disbelief part lol. A gold bug last week was telling me how gold was gonna correct for a while before going to $5000 etc...
Gold has made 10 consecutive higher highs and higher lows. Once it breaks that we could see a retracement of sorts. Happy with my junior goldies in the meantime


----------



## Ageo

chatty said:


> Just another side of the coin who strongly believe in deflation
> 
> This guy is pretty good.
> http://www.youtube.com/user/endlessmountain#p/f/7/EXBRyxl8gPg




Not sure if that was suppose to mean he talks about deflation coming or inflation but according to the clip he was definately inflation pro.


----------



## vincent191

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have only ever bought physical gold and have bars buried here and there. gg




gg, I have a lot of space in me backyard, you are welcome to bury some of your gold bars in me backyard.

In a nutshell monetary economics says that if you start printing money willy nilly like what they are currently doing in the USA, you will have more money chasing the same amount of goods and services, thus the price of goods & services will go up (Inflation). 

Thus to protect your net worth you would want to buy gold or other commodities that are inflation proof. Gold is fairly liquid, you can sell it and turn that back into cash very readily, it does not take up a lot of space to store and the cost of buying & selling is not prohibitive (unlike real estate). So please go and buy some gold bars and bury them in me backyard for save keeping. It is ok I am not related to Madoff.

N.Kelly


----------



## explod

Silver is finally on the move (not breaking yet but signs are there) which I have found leads the way.

Gold in firm steps since early August is now into its next big up move.  Lets refer to the 10 year Kitco Chart:-


If we look at the high it made in early 06, then the next about March 07, we had a move of about US$350     The 10 years chart is clearly making the french curve upwards which we would expect in a firm bull run, as new players start to look towards it the sentiment gains momentum.   

So it is time for me to go out on a limb folks, we are moving to US$1500 over the next 6 to 12 months.


----------



## Pivotonian

I have a noobie question about this.

If I believed that the gold price was going up in US dollar terms and wanted to take advantage of it, what are my options (other than investing in gold explorers/producers)?

As far as I can see, the easiest way to get direct exposure to gold is to buy shares in the ETF (ASX:GOLD).  However, if the rise in the gold price is driven in large part by devaluation of the US dollar, then its possible that the price in AUD (and therefore the share price of GOLD) is not going to move much at all, no?


----------



## WilliamKong

Pivotonian said:


> I have a noobie question about this.
> 
> If I believed that the gold price was going up in US dollar terms and wanted to take advantage of it, what are my options (other than investing in gold explorers/producers)?
> 
> As far as I can see, the easiest way to get direct exposure to gold is to buy shares in the ETF (ASX:GOLD).  However, if the rise in the gold price is driven in large part by devaluation of the US dollar, then its possible that the price in AUD (and therefore the share price of GOLD) is not going to move much at all, no?




You can also buy Gold futures or options or even warrant to get direct exposure to gold. Or you can even buy bullion or ETF for gold (like SPDR).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Pivotonian said:


> I have a noobie question about this.
> 
> If I believed that the gold price was going up in US dollar terms and wanted to take advantage of it, what are my options (other than investing in gold explorers/producers)?
> 
> As far as I can see, the easiest way to get direct exposure to gold is to buy shares in the ETF (ASX:GOLD). However, if the rise in the gold price is driven in large part by devaluation of the US dollar, then its possible that the price in AUD (and therefore the share price of GOLD) is not going to move much at all, no?




Correct - gold bullion in $AU has flatlined for the last 7 months - a terrible investment.

-------

What the 'inflationists' fail to mention or to take into account is the other side of the ledger - the huge amount of wealth/dollars that have been totally evaporated over the last 2 years, which when compared to the amount 'printed' is greater by several orders?

If newly 'printed' money was infact flooding the system we would not be getting the 'yield competition' from the banks that we are now offered ie the deposit scene is cut throat, with banks falling over each other trying to entice new money in at higher rates. 

-------

Right now gold is just another 'good times are back' yield/momentum play, helped by the negative correlation with the USD. It's a worry when gold is in step with the Dow? A 'Bump & Run' reversal pattern???

With the US Fed Gov budget balance hitting a record deficit for October, the US is on track for an even greater deficit this year? So what to do? If they can still attract money to their debt auctions then creditors may demand a better return ie interest rates going up? But that would put pressure on 'the recovery'? The budget deficit is the Jaws of Death for the US, and by extension, the rest of the world?

The China connection is interesting in that if the USD does in fact substantially fail in the near future, then all those who hold them will be stuck with worthless IOU nothings. If China can't exchange them for hard assetts, like our commodities, then Aus will be stuffed too. With Australians with the majority of their assets in 'growth' shares and property, we will be hugely affected. The result - the Aussie dollar tanks, and we get the 'sling-shot' effect - rising US gold price with falling USD/AUD exchange rate - now that will be the real deal!?


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Just thought I'd post a link to the Kitco AUD/USD price graphs.  It can be tricky to find.

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD

Hit Australian Dollar... as if I need to tell you.


----------



## explod

CapnBirdseye said:


> Just thought I'd post a link to the Kitco AUD/USD price graphs.  It can be tricky to find.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD
> 
> Hit Australian Dollar... as if I need to tell you.




Thanks for posting that chart link,  in spite of the rising dollar bringing things down in the recent short term it does tell that over time we are better off with gold than maney in the vault, against the general uncertainty of markets.


----------



## GumbyLearner

This could be bull**** but has anyone heard the rumour about a an "Asian depository" holding gold-coating tungsten bars that weren't weighed or assayed.
Sounds like a repeat of the Ethiopian gold that ended up in South Africa before being discovered as fake.

Is there any merit to this rumour?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

A very quick look at the Gold chart indicates that it appears to be topping. 5 waves up since 1999 looks complete or almost complete. There is a possibility of an extended 5th wave to push more upside. Downside targets would be in the range of 550-700.

A fourth wave triangle that started in March 08 and finished in Aug 09 is an indicator of a upcoming change in trend.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

OzWaveGuy said:


> A very quick look at the Gold chart indicates that it appears to be topping. 5 waves up since 1999 looks complete or almost complete. There is a possibility of an extended 5th wave to push more upside. Downside targets would be in the range of 550-700.
> 
> A fourth wave triangle that started in March 08 and finished in Aug 09 is an indicator of a upcoming change in trend.




I'd agree, looking at the charts in the short term it may have some more legs up, and even in to early next year, but long term it is due for a considerable correction.

gg


----------



## explod

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'd agree, looking at the charts in the short term it may have some more legs up, and even in to early next year, but long term it is due for a considerable correction.
> 
> gg




Would be keen to have your  on that gg.   The trend is your friend till the bend, with the money dilution going around and the sentiment building on the higher gold price I am at a loss to see the raionale  ??


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

explod said:


> Would be keen to have your  on that gg.   The trend is your friend till the bend, with the money dilution going around and the sentiment building on the higher gold price I am at a loss to see the raionale  ??




I suppose I'm a contrarian, so bear that in mind, so if everyone is tipping gold to go higher then everyone can't make a profit, otherwise there would be no losers.

I don't have any good gold charts, this one from kitco.com is a gif image.

From the 400 or so level in Jul05 we are in a wave 5 in EW.

Wave 1 is 400 to 700. Wave 2 is short in time down to 550
Wave 3 is the longest up to 1000 in nothern spring of 2008
Wave 4 is down to 750, last nothern winter.
Wave 5 we are in at present.

So if the correction comes in it could be the start of a wave 2 in a higher time frame, bringing us back down to support resistance at 750.

gg


----------



## cuttlefish

explod said:


> Would be keen to have your  on that gg.   The trend is your friend till the bend, with the money dilution going around and the sentiment building on the higher gold price I am at a loss to see the raionale  ??




Don't worry explod - when there's nobody calling a top thats the time to get worried.


----------



## cuttlefish

Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> I suppose I'm a contrarian, so bear that in mind, so if everyone is tipping gold to go higher then everyone can't make a profit, otherwise there would be no losers.



Is everyone tipping gold to go higher?  Or is everyone believing in the USD in spite of an enormous wealth of evidence to the contrary ... where is the bubble .. where will the dead cat bounce be?


----------



## cuttlefish

I've just realised that every time I make bullish comments in this thread gold heads for the floor ... I knew I shouldn't have posted.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

cuttlefish said:


> I've just realised that every time I make bullish comments in this thread gold heads for the floor ... I knew I shouldn't have posted.




Don't worry cuttle, 

Toss a Gold coin, eagle up and its going up , eagle down and its down. As good a way as any with gold.

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cuttlefish said:


> Is everyone tipping gold to go higher? Or is everyone believing in the USD in spite of an enormous wealth of evidence to the contrary ... where is the bubble .. where will the dead cat bounce be?




Well it's on the front page of the weekend AFR, so now all we need is there to be a few 'get rich from gold mania' stories on A Current Affair & Today Tonight to know the top is in , followed up by the bleeding heart rip-off stories about people who were sold fake gold bars and lost their house etc etc

Nice head n shoulders forming all the same.......


----------



## explod

> Garpal Gumnut
> 
> 
> I don't have any good gold charts, this one from kitco.com is a gif image.
> 
> From the 400 or so level in Jul05 we are in a wave 5 in EW.
> 
> Wave 1 is 400 to 700. Wave 2 is short in time down to 550
> Wave 3 is the longest up to 1000 in nothern spring of 2008
> Wave 4 is down to 750, last nothern winter.
> Wave 5 we are in at present.




Or gg, if you run a line with the eye off the last two peaks we should hit US$1500.  But then, I'm just an optimist mixed with gloom and doom.

And I also lament the inability/call it lazy I suppose to learn to trot out good charts with lines on em.  Maybe this Christmas I'll get the Grandson to tutor the old black duck up a bit.

Checked out your site gg, when I get myself familiar maybe stir up your pot.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Then again, it's all relative...........to gold. Recovery in the Dow & the US economy - what recovery??? Waiting for the signal............?


----------



## explod

Maybe someone mentioned back a few posts, but Roger Weigand's latest blurb on Kitko is well worth the read.  Applies also to the Immenent and Servere Market Correction thread also folks.

the link to his site:-

www.webeatthestreet.com

precious metals and related stocks the only road.


----------



## cuttlefish

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well it's on the front page of the weekend AFR, so now all we need is there to be a few 'get rich from gold mania' stories on A Current Affair & Today Tonight to know the top is in , followed up by the bleeding heart rip-off stories about people who were sold fake gold bars and lost their house etc etc
> 
> Nice head n shoulders forming all the same.......




I'm going to wait till Jamie Drury is hosting a reality TV show called "Prospecting Blitz" before I call it a top.


----------



## rbourne1

I believe the argument for gold to keep rising is still strong - there's no sound long term economic reasons why the US dollar should strengthen. And Asian growth, if you believe it will continue, should provide great opportunities for Aust resource companies. It's interesting to note that of the 1.6 billion internet users around the globe nearly half are in Asia.


----------



## Whiskers

cuttlefish said:


> Is everyone tipping gold to go higher?  Or is everyone believing in the USD in spite of an enormous wealth of evidence to the contrary ... where is the bubble .. where will the dead cat bounce be?




Well, I had/have three targets for the end of this up leg... 1,098 has passed, 1,151 and 1,189ish. I've got the trigger finger close by looking for weakness around 1,151 especially if the USD doesn't strengthen against the AUD at the same time.


----------



## barrett

Last night a break through overhead resistance... silver also breaking through resistance... 

..and yet the biggest unhedged gold miners have not even outperformed the Dow over the past two months!  ($HUI:$INDU chart below).  

It does seem to back U.F.'s point that gold is just another recovery play at the moment.


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> Last night a break through overhead resistance... silver also breaking through resistance...
> 
> ..and yet the biggest unhedged gold miners have not even outperformed the Dow over the past two months!  ($HUI:$INDU chart below).
> 
> It does seem to back U.F.'s point that gold is just another recovery play at the moment.




Since the 08 October bottom when the HUI hit 160 it has risen near to 200% at 475    The laggards are the Aussie stocks but some strength is now returnign to the good companies.   $20 rise in the Aussie gold price overnight in spite of our currency holding will soon change the equation.   Of course a lot of investors are still falling for the doubt jawboning of the financial press.  Little or no trailing fees etc in gold investing.


----------



## GumbyLearner

'Rational Bubble' Inflates Gold prices

The Korea Times
By Kim Tae-Gyu
November 17, 2009
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/11/123_55665.html

Experts see a bubble in soaring gold prices, which have continued to grow to record highs of late ― but no end is in sight with the price expected to go beyond the fundamental value of the precious metal.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Hey guys just thought I'd drop in?

How's gold and silver doing?

Anyway back to the game.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Just waiting for the NY open?


----------



## GumbyLearner

Exclusively for the shorts..cheers guys enjoy



Let's talk tomorrow


----------



## GumbyLearner

How's gold doing atm?


----------



## Ageo

Well on the physical front gold is going spastic. Refiners have blew their spread out by a fair wack which means movement is probably still going to take place (up or down who knows). 

The scrap frenzy is starting to set in. I picked up 7kgs since last week and there is no sign of slowing atm.


----------



## Whiskers

Interesting development in the last hour or so... AUD gold has gone higher against the trend of falling USD gold. The euro, yen, pound and franc conversion price seems to be wanting to shadow the USD price down.


----------



## ASXNoob

can someone please explain how gold prices and the aussie to US dollar exchange rate interact...in the past 6 months the US gold price has been increasing, the aussie dollar has also risen against the US dollar, but the share price of the ETF GOLD has essentially stayed the same...im sure its really obvious but i havent been able to get my head around how a rising gold price and an increasing aussie dollar is not reflected in an increase SP for GOLD...is gold purchased in US dollars?


----------



## solomon

Yes.

Pretty much every raw material is priced in $US which is why their currency debasement is a world issue.


----------



## Ageo

Au gold almost 1260. Its making a run for it.........


There might be a run like last christmas where it ended just after Feb @ 1500Au.

I have seen spreads yesterday to be as much as $60!!!!! for 1 ounce bullion.

Of course people jumping on the bandwagon so merchants are cashing in on it.

I can see a retracement happening soon but i cant see the overall price heading back under 1200Au to be the medium.


Interesting times indeed


----------



## tehnoob

In my opinion the majority of recent gains have been from the sheeple following the hype. I've just returned from a major shopping centre in which there was a stall paying cash for gold. Surely this is a sign that a correction is due?


----------



## rbourne1

tehnoob said:


> In my opinion the majority of recent gains have been from the sheeple following the hype. I've just returned from a major shopping centre in which there was a stall paying cash for gold. Surely this is a sign that a correction is due?




What price were they buying at?


----------



## explod

tehnoob said:


> In my opinion the majority of recent gains have been from the sheeple following the hype. I've just returned from a major shopping centre in which there was a stall paying cash for gold. Surely this is a sign that a correction is due?




The price of gold, sentiment or otherwise has little to do with the Sheeple (man on the street implied)   Dealers are indeed out in force (see the signs out everyday) to buy any gold they can get their hands on.   Why? because dealers are unable to keep up with investment demand and they know also that it is a safe bet to hold.

However the real factor behind the price of gold rising from US$260 in 1999 to the price today of 1,1550 is because money is losing its value and at the rate they are continuing to print/dilute its value gold will only continue this steady rise.  In fact it is looking very likely that this years rise in gold will be the largest of the last 9 years.   And though for awhile it has slowed (in fact retreated a great deal 12 months back) due to our rising dollar the Aussie gold price is indeed on the move again dispite this, having risen A$100 over the last month.   Inflation across the globe in real terms is now being whispered as a strong possibility soon, our rising interest rates in Aus has rung a starting bell.

Indeed we do have interesting times.   If you only have feelings about gold do not look at it till you have done some research on its history and particularly its relationship to currencies.  If not you may later miss a golden opportunity.

Just my humble opinion of course.

cheers explod


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> However the real factor behind the price of gold rising from US$260 in 1999 to the price today of 1,1550 is because money is losing its value and at the rate they are continuing to print/dilute its value gold will only continue this steady rise.
> n fact it is looking very likely that this years rise in gold will be the largest of the last 9 years.




If this is the "real factor" then please explain how gold fell from 850-260 in the first place during the largest inflationary period of the last 200 years?


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> If this is the "real factor" then please explain how gold fell from 850-260 in the first place during the largest inflationary period of the last 200 years?




It was a period driven by money inflation and now we have the opposite.

The money injections are diluting the real values of intangibles, gold is gold and cannot be diluted, it is the real tangible.

And of course to keep propping the illusion the western central banks sold off most of their big holdings of gold in that period.   The great Prime Minister then the Exchequer saw fit to sell most of the UK gold holdings at that pittance of a price and in the long term rob the country of huge amounts of wealth.   Our wonderful Mr Costello did the same thing.  Now of course with the cupboards bare they can suppress it no longer.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> It was a period driven by money inflation and now we have the opposite.
> 
> The money injections are diluting the real values of intangibles, gold is gold and cannot be diluted, it is the real tangible.




That is absolute incoherent rubbish. 










Will repost this chart from 5y+ because you obviously didn't get it the first time


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> That is absolute incoherent rubbish.




Would you care to elaborate on that without throwing up a few charts of the past.

Sure the Dow looks fantastic, on the borrowed money, the jawboning and the promise to pay what they cannot.    

Will be intersting indeed to see where we are in a year or two from now.

And on the Dow, the weekly shows a clear evening star with the volume at half that of the start of the recovery, be interesting to see if they can make it to Thanksgiving without having to put up another scaffold to stop the topple.


----------



## sinner

I thought it would be obvious? From the first chart, since the 1980s inflation adjusted gold has been in an extreme down-trend. That means the current trend of gold which you attribute to "monetary dilution" which you somehow also claim is the opposite of "monetary inflation" (rediculous) is not even keeping pace with official inflation figures, let alone real inflation. That means if you had bought gold at 850 20-30 years ago and sold it at the current high you would be making a LOSS.

You can confirm this by looking at the second chart, dow (or many other instruments, like some commodities which meet your definition of "tangible") CPI adjusted down from 1980 to current has made gains over inflation. At least if you bought the Dow or real estate or ANYTHING BUT GOLD REALLY 20-30 years ago and sold it today you could have made a profit.

I have to say explod, I'm really bored by having the same argument with you.


----------



## explod

The following chart is the inflation adjusted.

Yes we have had a servere correction along the way but the savvy would have sold the peaks and brought the dips.

From 1970 as a long term investment gold has gone from US$35 an ounce, not a bad little nest egg.   And on the inflation adjusted well under value today.   This bull has legs and a long way to run.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Yes we have had a servere correction along the wa




There is no 'but' explod: the severe correct you refer to completely blows your argument that monetary dilution (whatever that is, since you say it happens in the opposite time of monetary inflation) is the cause of gold price jump over the last 10 years out of the water.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> If this is the "real factor" then please explain how gold fell from 850-260 in the first place during the largest inflationary period of the last 200 years?




The following is courtesy of the Privateer Newsletter:-



> The HIDDEN Gold Wars
> In the early 1980s, when world stock markets boomed in tandem everywhere in the world, Gold reached the $500 level twice. The first time was in early 1983, just as the global boom was getting started. The second time was at the end of 1987, two months after the infamous crash of October 1987. From $499 in December 1987, Gold fell throughout 1988 and dipped below the $400 level in January 1989. Gold has only ever regained the $400 for four very short periods since then.
> 
> Gold traded as high as $422 in December 1989 - January 1990.
> It reached as high as $415 in the lead up to the Gulf war in August 1990.
> It reached $408 in August 1993.
> And finally, Gold reached a high close of $414 in February 1996.
> 
> But Gold's history in the years since the 1987 crash is that at all the actual crisis points, the Gold price has not risen, it has fallen. The best single example of this phenomenon remains Gold's performance on January 17, 1991, the day that the "air phase" of the Gulf war began. On that single day, Gold fell $30 from its previous close. In fact, it fell $40 from its intra-day high. Gold had been rising in the months leading up to the war. As soon as the war started, Gold plummeted.
> 
> The Gold price has failed to respond to the fact that Gold demand has exceeded newly-mined Gold supply in every year since 1988. It has, consistently done the opposite of what all of its previous history shows that it "should" do. Why has this happened?
> 
> From Overt To Covert
> As we have documented in this series, in the 1960s and 1970s, governments fought Gold in the open. They announced what they were going to do before they did it. Of course, they failed miserably. But people in government, just like the rest of us, are quite capable of learning from their mistakes, The first thing they learned was that the best way to "fight" Gold was to go underground. They did so, with great success.
> 
> The plan adopted was to fight Gold on their own ground. In order to do this, they greatly expanded the ways in which Gold could be traded. More important, they introduced and developed an indirect market for Gold, they invented a Gold "derivatives" market.
> 
> The Paper Blizzard - "Derivatives"
> Forward and futures markets were not, of course, an invention of the 1980s. What was an invention of the 1980s was the massive increase in paper trading instruments. These instruments, which became known as "derivatives", were first developed in the currency and debt markets. They then spread into the equity markets and into the Gold market.
> 
> The advantage of "derivatives" in the paper markets was twofold. First, they provided more and more leverage for more and more aggressive trading. Second, and far more important, they provided a method to hugely expand the amount of money in circulation without expanding the "money supply"! The traditional measures of money in circulation (M1, M2, M3, M...) expanded much more slowly. What did expand was the blizzard of "derivative paper" using paper money as its underlying "asset". This was one of the main reasons why "inflation" (defined as rising prices) slowed down.
> 
> The advantages of a Gold derivative market were similar. Governments learned in the 1960s and 1970s that it was impossible to meet an increased demand for Gold with physical Gold. They needed a paper substitute. Gold "derivatives" provided that substitute. With more tradeable alternatives to physical Gold, it became far easier to control the Gold price. But on top of the derivatives themselves, other specific mechanisms were developed to help control the price of Gold.
> 
> One of these methods was forward selling by Gold mining companies. This practice began with Gold's retreat from the $500 level in the wake of the 1987 crash. By the mid 1990s, Gold companies everywhere, but notably in Australia, were routinely forward selling years worth of their projected Gold production.
> 
> As the performance of Gold in the fifteen years between the market crash of 1987 and the start of the current $US Gold bull market in 2002 illustrates, these mechanisms worked very well indeed.


----------



## Ageo

tehnoob said:


> In my opinion the majority of recent gains have been from the sheeple following the hype. I've just returned from a major shopping centre in which there was a stall paying cash for gold. Surely this is a sign that a correction is due?




In Parramatta westfields yeh?

I might go and buy it off em


----------



## SuperGlue

"Jim Rogers, former partner of George Soros, says buy gold, not gold stocks. 

He sees the metal going to $US2000/oz in short order, so you'll make more money buying the physical market. 

On the other hand, he argued, so many gold company stories never pan out. It also happens that Baring Asset Management agrees with Rogers. 

Dow Jones reports this London firm is recommending investors should switch from mining equities into bullion."


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...rce-volumes-ease/story-e6frg9if-1225801820737

In my search for most active gold futures code/symbol for IB (TWS trading platform), it is GC any others anyone?

If not I'll run down to Aust. Mint to buy the really thing.....haha


----------



## explod

Yes the physical possession is the only sure way.   The Gold ETF thread could not even be bothered with.   The physical backing to many, particularly the US is said to be very dodgy indeed.   Perth mint should be sound enought, but the rest would not touch them.


----------



## Ageo

Remember if you guys need physical get a price from anywhere then come back to me before you buy it. I deal with major refiners all the time and refine all my scrap so my bullion will be at competitive prices.

<shameless plug ended>


----------



## barrett

explod said:


> Yes the physical possession is the only sure way.   The Gold ETF thread could not even be bothered with.   The physical backing to many, particularly the US is said to be very dodgy indeed.   Perth mint should be sound enought, but the rest would not touch them.




Yes I had a look at the ASX one a while back, there's three directors.  With all due respect to them, I don't know them, never even heard of them.. probably OK but if they turn out to be the next Bernie Madoff, WineOrb, HIH etc. I'm left with nothing!  Go the safety deposit box or better yet grandma's back yard!


----------



## explod

> Gold in the Limelight
> 
> Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com
> 
> Gold is soaring, hitting new record highs almost daily. This C rise is going strong. Our initial $1200 target level for this year's rise has nearly been reached, but gold could go higher.
> 
> This is good news for all of us who have been invested in gold for the past eight years. But even for those of you who invested in more recent times, gold has been a good and profitable investment.
> 
> We feel strongly that this will continue in the months and years ahead. And there are many valid reasons why.
> 
> Most important, the unprecedented monetary policy currently in force is inflationary. The same is true of the weak U.S. dollar, negative interest rates, rising oil and commodities. Gold buying by central banks is also boosting the gold price higher.
> 
> Even though gold is still relatively unknown in mainstream investment circles, it’s starting to attract some attention. As this interest grows, momentum buying will pick up and the exchange traded funds are another big positive, simply because they make it easy to buy gold. The improving economy is another positive factor.





The Aden Sisters have always been bullish on gold but conservative.  Gold is certainly making continued moves on the upside now since breaking the grand mark.  Aussie gold is also putting up a good run  in spite of the currency strength(a concern of a lot of recent posters).  Good stocks(IMHO) such as OGC and RSG making solid upticks.

Just my humble opinion.

Full Arden report can be found on Kitko.


----------



## brty

> The Aden Sisters have always been bullish on gold but conservative.




While I'll agree with the first part about being bullish, I'd question the 'conservative' part. 

Nearly 30 years ago the Aden sisters were predicting gold at $4,000 within a short period of time. I thought their credibility had gone out the door with the 20 plus year bear market that followed.

brty


----------



## explod

brty said:


> While I'll agree with the first part about being bullish, I'd question the 'conservative' part.
> 
> Nearly 30 years ago the Aden sisters were predicting gold at $4,000 within a short period of time. I thought their credibility had gone out the door with the 20 plus year bear market that followed.
> 
> brty





If you read back to about 2 of my posts back (Pravateers article), the Aden Sister's had not counted on the market manipulation of Governments and banks .  I feel confident the result may have been far different.


----------



## sinner

I am so sick of this manipulation crap, it doesn't even make sense and the main argument "that banks have been net short for 10 years" is JUST THE FUNCTION OF A CENTRAL BANK! If retail/hedge funds are long then CBs will be short. Go look at the SWFX sentiment indicator for forex, banks are ALWAYS providing the liquidity so they will ALWAYS be doing the opposite of retail traders. Gold is just another currency to CBs, world central bank gold reserves are 10% of total reserves completely in line with a sane money policy. I wish you would find something else to rant about explod, you don't even provide any real evidence to back up your statements. 

Anyway, the reason I even bothered to come back to this thread (trust me I really didn't want to, because of you explod) was to revisit 2 old posts of mine and update the chart.

On 12th Feb 2009 I wrote a post about the gold "super cannon" chart formation. You can click here

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=397131&postcount=6305 

to see those two charts showing the formation. Back then what I was suggesting didn't look probable and most people didn't believe it would play out liek this.

Well, here is the updated chart, still using the same parallel lines:



I have also included a new chart with possible cannon lines which looks a bit cleaner.


----------



## explod

Sinner'
One of the things that I abhore is the notion of shorting.  It is nothing *short* in my view of legalised criminality.  It is probably why we disagree as our outlook is so different.  I believe when the whole financial system finally collapses (as I beleive it will) that shorting (and some Government questions arising allready) will be outlawed.  It goes against democratic free/value markets.

It would be best if we ignored each other;   but when you call me rediculous, I have no alternative but to answer from my perspective.

Gold is as you say *a currency* and it will outlive and grow well beyond the current papaer system.

However, I have been wrong before and will be again.  But to me gold is a good bet as part of my portfolio.   AAnd its great to discuss.


----------



## Edwood

I don't really follow gold so excuse me for butting in over here, but that chart sinner is starting to look very much like a 3 peaks doomed house.  obviously they don't always play out but worth keeping an eye on it
Ed


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Sinner'
> One of the things that I abhore is the notion of shorting.  It is nothing *short* in my view of legalised criminality.  It is probably why we disagree as our outlook is so different.  I believe when the whole financial system finally collapses (as I beleive it will) that shorting (and some Government questions arising allready) will be outlawed.  It goes against democratic free/value markets.




This is stupidity at its finest. How the hell do you expect to be able to buy gold if nobody is shorting?

Maybe you were referring specifically to naked shorting or forward selling of a commodity. In which case it is blatantly apparent that this had NO long term effect on the gold price, otherwise we would NOT be at all time highs.

As we say in the forex market, fade the manipulation. Every time BoJ or SNB steps in to support USD against their currency you can fade it to make money because MANIPULATION IN A FREE MARKET NEVER WORKS FOR LONG. Yes, central banks are shorting gold. That is their job. If everyone else is buying gold, then someone needs to be there to sell *GASP THEY WILL BE SHORT* it to them. Just like on the forex, if you are the central bank and everyone is buying your currency then you SELL IT against that. I don't see you complaining about the RBA selling AUDUSD at 0.93 when everyone else is buying nor did I hear a peep out of you when they were buying 0.65 even though for all intents and purposes it meets your exact definition of "manipulation" which you level at the central banks, and actually had more effect on the gold you hold as an Aussie than the actual price of gold has had in the last 12 months.


----------



## explod

In my humble view there should be no currency control, like China is pegged to the US currency.   Banks are supposed to take money for those who want to keep it there and pay interest and to loan it at an interest rate a bit above, no more no less.  Banks trading with or against the market, hedging is wrong in my very humble view.

Just my take

Gold to me is a tangible currency as cattle were when as a child I went with my farther to market once a week.   In the beginning of course it was barter of goods then gold became an exchange, then notes to the exact value and promise of gold came in as it was more convienient, then some smarties started to take advantage of that and real value in my view broke it down.  One day someone will want their value again, wonder when they try to draw down the promised physical if it will all be there.

Gold will hold up for me and the bell has only started for the beginning of the game as far as it is concerned.


----------



## Whiskers

From my post on the XAO thread... for those 'blinkered' gold bugs. :

I'm watching for the AUD to fall against the USD pretty soon fundamentally, technically it's also indicated because of an ascending wedge, some MACD divergance and a reasonable looking H&S on the hourly, which would bring it back into the .80's.

I'm also looking for the XAUUSD to peak probably below 1,200 and generally go sideways for some time based on both my alternate counts looking for a corrective wave and the 1.618 mark just above 1,200. A similar scenario with all other metals.

This would also be consistent with the USD firming particularly against the AUD which I think was bought up heavily because we didnlt go into recession and raised interest rates first and likely to pause for a bit while the rest of the world recovers.

The net effect, all other things being equal, should be better returns for our exporters a minimal (comparatively) rise in imports and a strengthening XAO.


----------



## explod

> Whiskers
> 
> for those 'blinkered' gold bugs...
> 
> I'm watching for the AUD to fall against the USD pretty soon fundamentally, technically it's also indicated because of an ascending wedge, some MACD divergance and a reasonable looking H&S on the hourly, which would bring it back into the .80's.




Well is not looking like that at the moment, US$ index further dropping today in line with the recent trend and gold up US$8.50 today since their close.



> The net effect, all other things being equal, should be better returns for our exporters a minimal (comparatively) rise in imports and a strengthening XAO




Yeh, *should*, not sure of the chances with our economy built on real output and the US GDP 70% consumer spending.


----------



## sinner

Whiskers said:


> From my post on the XAO thread... for those 'blinkered' gold bugs. :
> 
> I'm watching for the AUD to fall against the USD pretty soon fundamentally, technically it's also indicated because of an ascending wedge, some MACD divergance and a reasonable looking H&S on the hourly, which would bring it back into the .80's.
> 
> I'm also looking for the XAUUSD to peak probably below 1,200 and generally go sideways for some time based on both my alternate counts looking for a corrective wave and the 1.618 mark just above 1,200. A similar scenario with all other metals.
> 
> This would also be consistent with the USD firming particularly against the AUD which I think was bought up heavily because we didnlt go into recession and raised interest rates first and likely to pause for a bit while the rest of the world recovers.
> 
> The net effect, all other things being equal, should be better returns for our exporters a minimal (comparatively) rise in imports and a strengthening XAO.




Wasn't your original count for an AUDUSD top to be 0.75?


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> Wasn't your original count for an AUDUSD top to be 0.75?




I recall I did have something like .75 for a target, maybe nine months ago.

A lot has changed since then, not the least of which has been the stimulus packages. The waters seemed a bit extra uncertain for awhile and cash seemed to run to the best short term gain. 

Having said that, always qualified by all other things not seen changing as being equal ,  I think the rubber bands have pretty much stretched to their limit and about to return to some status quo.


----------



## So_Cynical

USD Gold cracked 1180 a little while ago...its an amazing run and i must say i like it when the shorter's get a spanking, have to admit the chart is looking unsustainable and very toppy....still there's no way im selling yet.


----------



## Glen48

The price of Gold is a true indicator of how the World economy is traveling and there are no signs any where things are improving so sit back and watch it rise and cash in to the best time to be involved in Gold in the history of  Gold.
 once it get around 3k sit back and take stock.


----------



## Edwood

everyone seems to be very bullish, taken a small short at 1185.4


----------



## hitmanlam

I've tried shorting before the key $1000.  It doesn't work because you're going against momentum.  *Shorts end up covering their own position chasing the price up even further.  *I believe that the $1200 mark will be hit now.  What to do from there?  Are u guys going to still be holding at that point?  Could it go up any further.  I think it is time to take some profit.  Thoughts?


----------



## hitmanlam

I'm thinking consolidation at $1200.  A fake upward movement forming the head......possibly at $1220, then a reversal.  So possible shorting at around the $1220 mark.


----------



## explod

hitmanlam said:


> I've tried shorting before the key $1000.  It doesn't work because you're going against momentum.  *Shorts end up covering their own position chasing the price up even further.  *I believe that the $1200 mark will be hit now.  What to do from there?  Are u guys going to still be holding at that point?  Could it go up any further.  I think it is time to take some profit.  Thoughts?




For me only when a retracement is evident, *follow the trend untill the bend*  1200 maybe but on the past technical action, since 2002 this rise should go to 1400 before the next major correction.  However as has been a charachteristic the last few months we should expect some concolidation before it moves beyond 1200   With Thanksgiving a move down on Monday, consolidation, then up again from Wednesday

Having said that I am a long term holder of bullion only and trade gold stocks when the indexes are bullish.

Just my take and have often been wrong.  Heard on local radio 3AW this morning, that the dollar is being dumped for gold.   Some would say that's a sign to sell, I believe the investment community are only now taking some notice of its strength.   Gold production is falling and gold is but a tiny percentage of overall investments.  India seeking to buy the rest of IMF holdings, you figure.


----------



## sinner

The fun is just beginning


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> The fun is just beginning




Explain that chart to me Sinner as im a little bamboozled.


----------



## sinner

Ageo said:


> Explain that chart to me Sinner as im a little bamboozled.




Sorry Ageo, it is the weekly chart of Dow:Gold ratio (or how many dows you can buy with 1 gold). When the ratio is moving up the Dow is outperforming gold, when the ratio is moving down gold is outperforming the Dow. 

Historical lows of this ratio around 1-3 (i.e. 1 gold will buy 1 dow) have marked almost all of the previous bear market lows.

As you can see, the ratio looks to be preparing for the next run down. I am not making any calls on either component instrument as the ratio can reach 1 by a number of ways. For example, the dow and gold could tank together (but dow faster than gold), or gold could hold steady here while the dow tanks, or gold could go up dow could go down, it is hard to pick which scenario will occur (until it is happening in real time).

Gold is also finally starting to uptick against other currencies other than the USD which means it is (after almost a year) starting to look good as a possible safe haven from fiat currency. Frankly, I think it would be better to buy real estate at this point than gold!

I have included two other important gold ratios (well important for ME anyway, many people disagree that they hold any importance at all) to highlight the usefulness. I include Gold:Oil and Gold:Silver ratio. I used the Gold:Oil range to predict oil to $60-80 in late Dec 08 when it was running at $30-40.


----------



## sinner

PS: For my current prediction on what will happen to Gold:Oil ratio, please look at a weekly chart of EURGBP, my guess is the formation will be identical.


----------



## sinner

PS: Am I the only one who has been using strong AUD/weak silver situation to be buying up craploads of pre-1946 Aussie coins?

Haven't bought any physical gold in over a year now, in fact I have SOLD some!


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> PS: Am I the only one who has been using strong AUD/weak silver situation to be buying up craploads of pre-1946 Aussie coins?
> 
> Haven't bought any physical gold in over a year now, in fact I have SOLD some!




No.     I go to Wrights, Lonsdale street and buy pure silver coins whenever I have extra cash


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> No.     I go to Wrights, Lonsdale street and buy pure silver coins whenever I have extra cash




Thanks for the tip, I might go check it out after work today! What is the going rate on florins/shillings/sixpence?


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> PS: Am I the only one who has been using strong AUD/weak silver situation to be buying up craploads of pre-1946 Aussie coins?
> 
> Haven't bought any physical gold in over a year now, in fact I have SOLD some!




I got a few including this one, I think is probably silver (I did look it up once, but have forgotten)... not the best collector condition, but I don't think I'll be melting it down for the silver content just yet.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Thanks for the tip, I might go check it out after work today! What is the going rate on florins/shillings/sixpence?




To clarify, I only buy 1966 round 50 cent coins, 80%silver content, 3 coins make an ounce of silver net.   Last lot I brought some months ago for $5.20 propably about $6 now.

We are getting way off topic now guys.

Gold closed at 1191 a jump of about US$30 for the week on the comex against very sceptical jawboning from the press.

cheers   explod


----------



## Ageo

Thanks Sinner for the info. You have a good view on the technicals which is always a positive.

As for gold i always top up around Sept/Oct as seasonal markets have shown there is a run upto the xmas period.

Anywayz just to give you an idea on the physical front here are some photos: Click to enlarge

Here is what 100k worth of scrap looks like which i picked up in 2 days. Mixed karats from 22ct all the way through to 9ct.





And a 10oz bar thats worth around 13k compared to 10k in cash. Easy storage plus it appreciates in value over time unlike fiat.

These are some of the pluses why people look at gold sinner from a conservative point of view.





Gold isnt an outperforming investment unlike shares etc... but i believe most people should have a small percentage of their portfolio for wealth protection which is what gold is.

P.S the gold rush is now set in and spreads are blowing out (at refiners) which means high volatility for price movement.


----------



## Edwood

nice little 5 off the high there chaps


----------



## Edwood

pattern holding for a turn - would be good to see it take out the 1181 area with a thrust


----------



## hitmanlam

LOL Edwood.  There is MASSIVE support at 1181.  Even when the USD rebounded hard, gold has been holding above the 1180 mark.  I'm giving it a 80% chance to go to 1200.  20% chance of a reversal.  I don't like your odds.  Follow the trend dude.  (Using a trailing stop loss).  Don't try and pick the top.  Wait for a clear trend reversal or u will get burnt.


----------



## Edwood

thanks for the advice hitman.  in my experience its tough to get burned if you have stops in.
the rr from a drop is a lot better than the rr of going long at this point, so to have a few points at risk on the table is neither here nor there.  gold is setting up for a fall imo, I'm more interested in going for a 2000pt move than a 200, but each to their own
still holding GBP-NZD from 2.1326 fwiw


----------



## hitmanlam

No probs Edwood.  I must admit, I have been thinking about shorting it myself  (not really going to do it, just thinking about it).  I guess your reason on RR makes senses, just as long as you have a stop loss.  Looking at the charts, its forming a nice pennant triangle right now at $1185.  Could break either way.  So you could be right.

FYI.  Gold would have been easily at the $1200 mark right now if it wasn't for USD rebounding and the markets tanking.  Luck has been on your side mate!


----------



## hitmanlam

Current bouncing at the 1180 mark.  It's gonna break down if it breaches support at $1180.  Possible reversal?  Too early to call.


----------



## hitmanlam

Well, well, well......U picked it Edwood.  Now the questions is, where is the expected support.  Time to do some fibonacci research.


----------



## Edwood

yeah well hitman you get some, you miss others.  that 5 off the high was a good sign of potential - with the initial signal the bearish engulfing on 5min candles at 04.05 GMT 26Nov.  
support potentially around the 1160 area
dyor etc  good luck
Ed


----------



## Edwood

anyone buying this then?  chunky move eh


----------



## hitmanlam

Seriously?.....Where do u think the support will be?  $1100?


----------



## Edwood

blimey, longed 1139.5, out already 1144.4 - wicked stuff!  like a feeding frenzy!


----------



## Edwood

seems to have found support for the moment.  personally I'd like to see it back to 1000 but that's probably not realistic near term
cable taking a spanking as well


----------



## skyQuake

Edwood said:


> seems to have found support for the moment.  personally I'd like to see it back to 1000 but that's probably not realistic near term
> cable taking a spanking as well




thats a lotta stops being triggered i'd imagine. Havent seen such a huge move for ages!
My guess is it'll be square once markets open on monday


----------



## Edwood

skyQuake said:


> thats a lotta stops being triggered i'd imagine. Havent seen such a huge move for ages!
> My guess is it'll be square once markets open on monday




yeah think you're right re: the stops
You reckon it'll be back?  This looks like the bear waking up again to me, possible start of "catastrophic wave c down"

edit: sorry I don't mean wave c for gold, I only occasionally trade gold - I'm referring to global equity markets fwiw


----------



## skyQuake

Edwood said:


> yeah think you're right re: the stops
> You reckon it'll be back?  This looks like the bear waking up again to me, possible start of "catastrophic wave c down"




Too hard too fast imo. Volume looks like its just one guy dumping a lot of contracts. Though SPI went down similarly so not sure what really happened.
Looks like a textbook parabolic move; would like to look for a long somewhere and reassess once US opens...
Why are all the good moves already done when I find out..


----------



## Edwood

there are shenanigans going on all around - FTSE was off line for several hours yesterday, including the secondary markets (e.g., Chi-X).  smells fishy


----------



## skyQuake

Think its gonna break 51? (trading SPOT thru dodgy cfd provider)
So much for the quiet night in :


----------



## explod

Seen it a number of times before, dumping when the main players have knocked off for holiday break.  The volatility of course will increase now, will return as fast as it is put down by mid next week.

Gonna be a heluva ride, the real fight up the wall of worry begins.  Gold bugs are laid back as cash is trash.


----------



## Ageo

Fek the price is out of control at the moment. Spreads for bullion have blown right out and i have never seen so much scrap being sold and bullion all at once.

Today it was a frenzy and it hasnt stopped. 100k scrap collected and i have pre-sold 10kgs of bullion . I have seen rush's but not like this. Perhaps the real market is telling us something.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Seen it a number of times before, dumping when the main players have knocked off for holiday break.  The volatility of course will increase now, will return as fast as it is put down by mid next week.
> 
> Gonna be a heluva ride, the real fight up the wall of worry begins.  Gold bugs are laid back as cash is trash.




I share the same sentiments explod. I'd like the financial longs and gold shorts to tell me where the next line of financial risk is coming from. Dubai World are $59 Bill in debt, probably looking to get bailed out by Abu Dhabi. Usual rigmarole on the newswires, flight to safety into $US. All announced prior to closed US/Canadian markets for Thanksgiving. 

So where is the next financial risk? Oh it's gold, it's in a bubble they cry !  (sarcasm intended) 

Of course it's got nothing to do with over-leveraged financiers who can't eat their own toxic paper and are too fearful to mention the next dodgy default collapse location.

I'm buying more gold now that US paper is in demand for a brief interlude of debt repayments by sovereign wealth funds who need to repay soon or they're cactus! 

DYOR


----------



## Edwood

yep good move guys, full yer boots, gold is going to the moon - everyone knows it


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Risk aversion =+USD, -gold unless or until we get a black swan event? Dubai can be 'contained' by 'them' so the USD shorters will be forced to cover, with collateral damage to negative USD correlated plays? Unless this is the catalyst for the main event, in which case the gloves are off? But if not then maybe the last gasp up for the USD - _then_ buy gold? $950 or $700?


----------



## cuttlefish

hold gold imo
the USD is dead long live the USD

last squeeze caused a flight to the USD - the US respoded by printing. In the event of a second squeeze we now know that the US will print until they can't print no more.  Wealth holders may fly somewhere else.

(beer proudly sponsored this post )


----------



## GumbyLearner

cuttlefish said:


> hold gold imo
> the USD is dead long live the USD
> 
> last squeeze caused a flight to the USD - the US respoded by printing. In the event of a second squeeze we now know that the US will print until they can't print no more.  Wealth holders may fly somewhere else.
> 
> (beer proudly sponsored this post )




And it's the only solution for their own political expedient purposes IMO. Faber has been repeating this mantra for the last 18 months on the commercial channels. 

Here's the interview on Lateline. Wow is this guy a great interviewee when he is not constrained by the major networks and their populist diatribe crap.

Enjoy the ale Cuttle

August 26, 2009
From 5:13 is when Mr.Faber really tells listeners what he thinks


----------



## Joules MM1

DG speaks

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34121808


----------



## GumbyLearner

Edwood said:


> yep good move guys, full yer boots, gold is going to the moon - everyone knows it




How's it looking now?


----------



## Edwood

yep its retraced a lot of the move, good to see, don't want too many gaps left up top.  dang closing that long from 1138 at 1144!   

agree with you Uncle F, games not over for USD yet, gold isn't any where near becoming a viable alternative yet, we need to see truly massive social upheaval before that happens and the conditions aren't ripe yet imo


----------



## GumbyLearner

Edwood said:


> yep its retraced a lot of the move, good to see, don't want too many gaps left up top.  dang closing that long from 1138 at 1144!
> 
> agree with you Uncle F, games not over for USD yet, gold isn't any where near becoming a viable alternative yet, we need to see truly massive social upheaval before that happens and the conditions aren't ripe yet imo




Cheers Ed

I think you really need to think more.

You won on the short trade tonight. Well done!! 

Let's see where this trade is going?


----------



## Ageo

Joules MM1 said:


> DG speaks
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/34121808




lol that guy is on CNBC so i rest my case for his comments.


----------



## Edwood

sure Gumbal - give me a shout when you see the next trade setting up, will be keen to see how your call goes


----------



## GumbyLearner

Edwood said:


> sure Gumbal - give me a shout when you see the next trade setting up, will be keen to see how your call goes




Your call fella! 

What do you say? I say $1250 b4 Chrissy! JMO

What about you?

Are you going to give a target? Or are you too soft to respond?


----------



## GumbyLearner

GumbyLearner said:


> Your call fella!
> 
> What do you say? I say $1250 b4 Chrissy! JMO
> 
> What about you?
> 
> Are you going to give a target? Or are you too soft to respond?




Plenty of time allowed!

You are a softcock EdWood!


----------



## GumbyLearner

Nice tree-shaking exercise Shorts

Lets get it on!

Gold down roughly $10 an oz.

I really should post my care factor so here goes 
0.0178%.


----------



## Edwood

thanks for the tip Grumbly

where should I enter for this 1250 target?
where should I put my stop?

just out of interest, did your stop get hit on the drop yesterday?  if so, where did you re-enter longs?

ta in advance


----------



## Ato

GumbyLearner said:


> Here's the interview on Lateline. Wow is this guy a great interviewee when he is not constrained by the major networks and their populist diatribe crap.




I dont like the idea of the US going to war after the system collapses from 5-10 years from now   That scares the crapola out of me...


----------



## Edwood

morning chaps - as said earlier I don't really follow gold, just looking for trades 

Does it bother you gold bugs that there are around 140 paper ounces for every physical ounce?

Interested to hear thoughts

Cheers


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> morning chaps - as said earlier I don't really follow gold, just looking for trades
> 
> Does it bother you gold bugs that there are around 140 paper ounces for every physical ounce?
> 
> Interested to hear thoughts
> 
> Cheers




Not at all, as more investors are looking for delivery on the paper it is going to get squeezed out big time and then there will be an enourmous explosion in the price, in my opinion.  In fact refiners and scrap dealers cannot keep up to the demand of late.   The US have this last week have just run out of 1 ounce gold eagles.


----------



## Edwood

explod said:


> Not at all, as more investors are looking for delivery on the paper it is going to get squeezed out big time and then there will be an enourmous explosion in the price, in my opinion.  In fact refiners and scrap dealers cannot keep up to the demand of late.   The US have this last week have just run out of 1 ounce gold eagles.




hi Explod - thanks - was just reading about the Eagles and demand for physical storage in the US - interesting times eh.  Guess there's a strong demand for guns too if folks think 'the system' is REALLY going t1ts up.

Out of interest, and apologies in advance I know I could search for this info (but figured you guys would know so better to ask the initiated ) - what're the storage costs like for the physical?


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> hi Explod - thanks - was just reading about the Eagles and demand for physical storage in the US - interesting times eh.  Guess there's a strong demand for guns too if folks think 'the system' is REALLY going t1ts up.
> 
> Out of interest, and apologies in advance I know I could search for this info (but figured you guys would know so better to ask the initiated ) - what're the storage costs like for the physical?




25kg about $500 per annum.    Reduces to around $200 for half kilo.  Bank headquarters in the City would be my preferred and it is then near to dealers for offloading etc.


----------



## buttonzhu

I think the gold price now is more like a psychological thing, if the economic condition is bad, investors will buy gold for safety, if the economic condition is good, people will have money to buy things like rings etc which increases the load of gold.

So I believe, the gold price might still in the uptrend to 1400 or even higher..... until some much better investments for investors come up, then the gold price might turn down...


----------



## explod

buttonzhu said:


> I think the gold price now is more like a psychological thing, if the economic condition is bad, investors will buy gold for safety, if the economic condition is good, people will have money to buy things like rings etc which increases the load of gold.
> 
> So I believe, the gold price might still in the uptrend to 1400 or even higher..... until some much better investments for investors come up, then the gold price might turn down...




Yes, a good point.   From my viewpoint I think gold will continue to strengthen for a number of years to come as the economic imballances of very high debt against very low real production will be around for a long time too.  For exampole in the US 200 million people are unrpoductive against 100 million who are.  Governments wanting to stay elected will pander and support the unproductive people for as long as they can.  We in Australia are perhaps not at that point yet.  A lot of our real production however comes from mining and farming for example which is produced by a low number of people.  

Governments and the banks are producing ever more paper money by the issue of increased debt to the unproductive to try and keep things rolling.  This is diluting the value of currencies which in turn increases the value of gold.   From what we can tell a solution to this problems seems a long way off.  So for me gold is a hedge against money in the bank losing its value.  It is doing so at a greater margin than can be recouped from term deposits or bonds for example.


----------



## Edwood

explod said:


> 25kg about $500 per annum.    Reduces to around $200 for half kilo.  Bank headquarters in the City would be my preferred and it is then near to dealers for offloading etc.




great - thanks Explod.  sorry not sure I follow, probably just me being thick - but what would you offload for?


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> great - thanks Explod.  sorry not sure I follow, probably just me being thick - but what would you offload for?




Well this is a gold thread, but silver is in the family as bullion.   Silver is my choice.  But if you want a view, go to the silver thread, just search under "Silver"  and back a few posts play the take on silver by Robert Kyosaki, I agree with his take and what he sayds is fairly comprehensive


----------



## Edwood

explod said:


> Well this is a gold thread, but silver is in the family as bullion.   Silver is my choice.  But if you want a view, go to the silver thread, just search under "Silver"  and back a few posts play the take on silver by Robert Kyosaki, I agree with his take and what he sayds is fairly comprehensive




So you'd offload gold for silver?

Kyosaki was very hot on property I believe, said it couldn't fall and he had some pretty convincing arguments around that as well - shame about the US property market but I guess if you're in early with any bull market its not an issue eh


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> So you'd offload gold for silver?
> 
> Kyosaki was very hot on property I believe, said it couldn't fall and he had some pretty convincing arguments around that as well - shame about the US property market but I guess if you're in early with any bull market its not an issue eh





Yes he was and made most of his money at one stage from it, he also did it with taking on run down businesses and building them up, whatever in the right cycle, the cycle has changed further and he is another who has gone with it to gold and silver. 

In one of his earlier books he made it clear that those working on wages were at a big disadvantage because they did not have time to contemplate the big picture and to research properly the ways in which one can make money by you own effort for yourself.   A lot are critical of him and say he is just a book seller.  Maybe, but his fundamental business teaching is a great yardstick IMHO

Interesting,,,I hit on the gold/silver trend before he did but it was a lot of his teaching that made me look at it in the first place as a possibility.

We need to be our own advisers and stand on our own feet and all you can learn in this direction will make you independent of others.

Bit off topic here, but good luck on your journey.

I would hold gold and add on silver, I think there are a few years to accumulate left whilst the metal is about, getting hold of it is going to be the problem soon IMHO.


----------



## jancha

explod said:


> Yes he was and made most of his money at one stage from it, he also did it with taking on run down businesses and building them up, whatever in the right cycle, the cycle has changed further and he is another who has gone with it to gold and silver.
> 
> In one of his earlier books he made it clear that those working on wages were at a big disadvantage because they did not have time to contemplate the big picture and to research properly the ways in which one can make money by you own effort for yourself.   A lot are critical of him and say he is just a book seller.  Maybe, but his fundamental business teaching is a great yardstick IMHO
> 
> Interesting,,,I hit on the gold/silver trend before he did but it was a lot of his teaching that made me look at it in the first place as a possibility.
> 
> We need to be our own advisers and stand on our own feet and all you can learn in this direction will make you independent of others.
> 
> Bit off topic here, but good luck on your journey.
> 
> I would hold gold and add on silver, I think there are a few years to accumulate left whilst the metal is about, getting hold of it is going to be the problem soon IMHO.




Yes interesting Explod. When you speak of investing in gold or silver i presume your refering to commodities & not companies mining it?


----------



## Edwood

looks like Hitmanlam's support at 1180-ish has become resistance 

So what do you think Gumbylearner is this a good area for entry on the long to 1250?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Got an e-mail from a company flogging gold bullion today. Their 5 gram gold bar was for $260.00 while 5 grams of gold at present spot price is $204.00.   If the price pulls back somewhat from here then I know who to NOT remember.


----------



## hitmanlam

My take on gold after last weeks price action,

After Fridays sell-off at the 1180 level, Alot of ppl are a bit hesistant pushing gold above the 1180 mark.  Immediate Resistance - 1180,  Support - 1150.  After the great run that golds had, I'm expecting some consolidation / sideways movement for the month of December and price breaking above the 1200 * early next year*.   Good time for gold to consolidate.  Gold has run hard the last 2 months and I think it needs abit of a breather.  I'm going to trade range-bound for December.  (Long at around 1150 and close at around 1180.  But NOT going to short due to the upside breakout risk).

Hitmanlam


----------



## explod

jancha said:


> Yes interesting Explod. When you speak of investing in gold or silver i presume your refering to commodities & not companies mining it?




Yes the physical in the hand is to what I refer.  Having said that the right gold stocks will have a great run as gold increases in value in AUD, that has occurred in the last month if you check the charts and of course gold stocks are going with that.

A simple formula,  if a gold company is prducing at a cost of say $600 an ounce and selling at say 800, then we have an increase in price to 1000, then profit has increased by 100% in the first instance and so on.   With a gold price going up a great deal we can have considerable leverage.  That is of course if the company, and some do, are not forward selling which can be very negative.  But as gold has been rising steadily the last few years most of the good Australian companies have got out of forward sales.

From 1970 when gold was US$35 an ounce to the blow off top of US$800 in 1980 some gold producers went up in price 100 times.  So the gold investing/trading scenerios are well worth some study.  If you Google on the history of gold and follow those leads to do a bit of research it may pay you well.


----------



## Ageo

Wysiwyg said:


> Got an e-mail from a company flogging gold bullion today. Their 5 gram gold bar was for $260.00 while 5 grams of gold at present spot price is $204.00.   If the price pulls back somewhat from here then I know who to NOT remember.




Its called a spread as i have mentioned before they have blown right out. Because of high volatility merchants/refiners are very cautious.


----------



## Wysiwyg

explod said:


> *From 1970 when gold was US$35 an ounce to the blow off top of US$800 in* *1980* some gold producers went up in price 100 times.  So the gold investing/trading scenerios are well worth some study.  If you Google on the history of gold and follow those leads to do a bit of research it may pay you well.




That would have been me selling at the US$170 mark and missing the "big" run up. Wonder if similar will occur this time. I suppose the gold bugs would be looking for US$1500 + as a target.


----------



## explod

Wysiwyg said:


> That would have been me selling at the US$170 mark and missing the "big" run up. Wonder if similar will occur this time. I suppose the gold bugs would be looking for US$1500 + as a target.




I suspect a bit of a set up here Wysiwyg but I cant' help myself on a few reds.  I have trotted this out about four times now on this thread, but who will read back that far.

The price of the 70's from $35 to $800 is a multiple of 23 to 1.   This bull market which began at its bottom in 2001 started at $260,   if we multiply that by 23 we have a projection of $5,900 by 2011.   Some economists are also saying that it may blow out greater than that.     


Time will tell, but worth pondering


----------



## hobo-jo

Wysiwyg said:


> Got an e-mail from a company flogging gold bullion today. Their 5 gram gold bar was for $260.00 while 5 grams of gold at present spot price is $204.00.   If the price pulls back somewhat from here then I know who to NOT remember.




5g is $253 at the mint currently:
http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx

$260 isn't a great price, but it's not far off what most are charging.


----------



## Ageo

hobo-jo said:


> 5g is $253 at the mint currently:
> http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx
> 
> $260 isn't a great price, but it's not far off what most are charging.




I can supply at todays prices a 5 gram bar between $240-$250 from any bullion house.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> GOLD GOLD GOLD




Hey explod even I was long Gold yesterday afternoon!


----------



## Sean K

When the US really implodes and the market inevitably falls over again, is there a chance our gold stocks will disconnect and tread their own path according to POG? They all seemed to be crucified just as much during the last panic sell-off, some explorers even more. Next time different? Or?


----------



## sinner

kennas said:


> When the US really implodes and the market inevitably falls over again, is there a chance our gold stocks will disconnect and tread their own path according to POG? They all seemed to be crucified just as much during the last panic sell-off, some explorers even more. Next time different? Or?




kennas, good point you raise and I have been thinking about it plenty myself.

Is ANY stock safe from overnight huge sells of the index futures? That is the crux of the issue here, if there is a panic selloff it will not be of individual equities, it will be in the index futures. How can you protect against that? You can't.


----------



## sinner

Ageo said:


> I can supply at todays prices a 5 gram bar between $240-$250 from any bullion house.




4-8% markup on small amounts that is good value.


----------



## Ageo

kennas said:


> When the US really implodes and the market inevitably falls over again, is there a chance our gold stocks will disconnect and tread their own path according to POG? They all seemed to be crucified just as much during the last panic sell-off, some explorers even more. Next time different? Or?




Kennas not really because gold companies are still exposed to other factors such as political, currency and other global things. In saying that it would be wise to hold both gold stocks and physical.

Things havent stopped here kilos are just pouring in at the moment "its raining gold"

My scale loaded to the max with a part batch.

click to enlarge


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> 4-8% markup on small amounts that is good value.




Sinner whatever the major bullion companies are supplying at i either match or do better.

But sometimes people just feel happy to deal with large companies like perth mint etc...


----------



## sinner

Ageo said:


> Sinner whatever the major bullion companies are supplying at i either match or do better.
> 
> But sometimes people just feel happy to deal with large companies like perth mint etc...




You could make a killing selling gold on ebay probably.


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> You could make a killing selling gold on ebay probably.




Sinner the problem with ebay is the price of gold is moving so much that waiting 5 days is just way too slow. (for bullion that is).


----------



## sinner

Ageo said:


> Sinner the problem with ebay is the price of gold is moving so much that waiting 5 days is just way too slow. (for bullion that is).




You can set the duration of the auction or even just have a "buy it now" item at set price with no auction at all. I've found auctions to be the best for selling gold though, people seem to invariably bid way higher than what they could've gotten at ABC or elsewhere. Which is why I suggested it.

Just go check it out, you will see what I mean. Demand for physical PMs on ebay is rediculous.


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> You can set the duration of the auction or even just have a "buy it now" item at set price with no auction at all. I've found auctions to be the best for selling gold though, people seem to invariably bid way higher than what they could've gotten at ABC or elsewhere. Which is why I suggested it.
> 
> Just go check it out, you will see what I mean. Demand for physical PMs on ebay is rediculous.




Ill check it out thanks mate


----------



## noirua

Sorry to interrupt this very busy thread.  A vote for best forum is in the final stages and ASFs vote has been declining steadily.  ASF really does need you now at:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies_list.php?c=Forums

Thanks


----------



## explod

The following from James Turk, who in my view is relatively conservative and helpfull in giving a broard picture in what is going on with the gold price, and particularly in what we may expect.  Published Nov 23, and seems to be happening on cue:-



> Welcome to Stage Two of Gold's Bull Market
> 
> Bull markets are marked by three distinct stages, and when gold climbed above $1,000, it only entered its second stage.  In other words, gold has much further to climb in the months and years ahead.
> 
> So don’t be misled by what you may hear or read in the mainstream media and even much of the alternative media. After all, how many commentators have correctly identified gold’s bull market, now a decade old?
> 
> As Robert Blumen cogently argues: “Many of the financial media have a pronounced anti-gold bias. Of the writers and news anchors now calling gold a bubble, not only did they fail to identify the stock market bubble in the 90s or the subsequent housing market boom as a bubble, they actively promoted the excesses of those unsustainable booms, encouraging their viewers or readers to participate. For the most part, these pundits have failed to identify a rising gold price as an investment trend at any point in the past ten years (during which gold had a positive return each and every year).”  Robert then goes on to observe the silly incongruity of their warnings about gold: “Witness the irony of the financial media transformed from hypesters who never saw a bubble they couldn’t promote into bubble vigilantes, issuing concerned warnings to ‘get out [of gold], now, before you get hurt.’”
> 
> http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumen/blumen19.1.html
> 
> There are different ways to determine relative value, and one of these is gauging market sentiment, which is what a bull market’s three stages communicate. During the first stage of a bull market, the media and most investors alike focus on past issues, rather than future potential. Over the past decade one consequently heard all the reasons not to own the gold.
> 
> An old and trusty adage says that bull markets climb a ‘wall of worry’.  In gold’s first stage, there seemingly was a lot to worry about.  But most of these worries were emotional in nature and not logical.  Few paid attention to relative value, which is the proper determining factor when making decisions about your portfolio. Truth be told, I too was worried, but I didn’t let it keep me from accumulating gold and recommending to anyone reading my analyses to do the same.
> 
> Gold is now in its second stage, and of course, the worries don’t disappear. They never do because there are always emotional reactions that at first blush offer seemingly plausible reasons for not taking the right action. But there is a notable difference in this stage compared to stage one.  Look how many people are writing and talking about gold. Gold has moved from apathy and neglect – stage one characteristics – to growing attention.  But importantly, instead of embracing gold and analyzing it to determine relative value, today’s attention is one of widespread disbelief and skepticism that gold can climb higher. These are exactly the responses one should expect to emanate from stage two.
> 
> As gold climbs higher, we will eventually enter stage three. The timing of its arrival cannot be predicted, but we will know it has arrived when commentators who have been consistently wrong about gold will be telling everyone willing to listen to buy gold. But at some point in stage three when gold no longer is relatively good value, it is when I will be advising to reduce your gold holding by spending or investing it. We are, however, a long way from there, so my advice for now remains the same as it has been throughout this decade. Continue to accumulate gold. View it as your savings account. Savings are always a good thing, particularly when you are saving sound money.
> 
> by James Turk


----------



## Edwood

golden waterfall!!  its not looking too happy at the moment...


----------



## Ageo

Edwood said:


> golden waterfall!!  its not looking too happy at the moment...




These last 2 hours will be interesting, perhaps a rebound?


----------



## Edwood

Ageo said:


> These last 2 hours will be interesting, perhaps a rebound?



yeah for a trade a bounce is definitely an option from here, so would want to keep stops relatively close - but that's some fall, looks a little ominous

edit: I'm not longing it yet anyway fwiw


----------



## explod

Healthy little blow off overnight, the steps and stairs of the trend is healthy.  The following out of Trader Dans blog is appropriate, find it on J. S. Minesite:-

...







> Keep in mind that Central Banks are now buyers of gold and will not change their new philosophy because of a short term chart signal. That buying will undergird the gold market as it moves lower into technical support levels.
> 
> As far as those analysts ignorantly proclaiming that gold is in a bubble, they have no idea what a chart pattern of a market in a bubble looks like. Gold’s rise has been steady and strong with it picking up momentum only in the last month or so. The market is taking a well deserved rest, especially as we move towards year end and traders begin to square positions in front of the holidays. Besides, if gold is in a bubble, Central Banks such as India and China, who are looking to acquire more of the metal, must be dolts as well.
> 
> Nothing short of major changes to US deficit spending and US monetary policy which also deals with the structural problems of gargantuan indebtedness is going to cure what ails the Dollar. The US wants, nay, needs a weaker Dollar to enable to deal with its debt problems. Dollar strength will attract the attention of those nations looking to lighten up on their Dollar holdings and to do so in a matter which is least disruptive to the Foreign Exchange markets. Translation – Dollar strength will be sold.
> 
> Shortsightedness is the sickness that kills investors. Be wise and do not adopt the convictions of the short term one minute bar chart readers for they have none.


----------



## Edwood

lets hope those central banks that're busy buying aren't the same ones who were busy selling around the 300-500 zone


----------



## Edwood

fingers crossed for you guys that Gordon Brown doesn't decide to get long


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> fingers crossed for you guys that Gordon Brown doesn't decide to get long




Bit late for our old pal Gordon Brown, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer he sold the UK's gold when it was between $260 and $300 an ounce and many have never forgiven him since.  Gold is breaking new records now against the British Pound.  So they prolly have little left with which to go short of long.


----------



## joeyr46

Nothing short of major changes to US deficit spending and US monetary policy which also deals with the structural problems of gargantuan indebtedness is going to cure what ails the Dollar. The US wants, nay, needs a weaker Dollar to enable to deal with its debt problems. Dollar strength will attract the attention of those nations looking to lighten up on their Dollar holdings and to do so in a matter which is least disruptive to the Foreign Exchange markets. Translation – Dollar strength will be sold.

Explod
this is fom trader dans blog you posted as a quote a few posts ago
Explain how a weak dollar helps the US with it's debt surely a strong dollar helps them pay their debt 

Back to gold interestingly the US dollar is not making new lows for Golds new highs are we near the end of a trend especially in the dollar if not in gold as well


----------



## Sean K

Oh dear, what happens when policies change? Gold is fvcked, buy all accounts here.


----------



## So_Cynical

kennas said:


> Oh dear, what happens when policies change? Gold is fvcked, buy all accounts here.




LOL the 5 minute chart followers have all the answers.


----------



## Edwood

explod said:


> Bit late for our old pal Gordon Brown, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer he sold the UK's gold when it was between $260 and $300 an ounce and many have never forgiven him since.  Gold is breaking new records now against the British Pound.  So they prolly have little left with which to go short of long.




aye GB sold the lows, sad sack that he is - if he starts buying now it will surely signal a major turn is imminent.  Can't see him ever trying to get involved with gold again after the lashing he got for his last ****-up.

That aside, the "5min crowd" will be looking for a lower high now


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It will go down after Christmas when all the festivals around the world have finished. When the Indians and Chinese, who are the biggest users, slow down on buying it. It always does. I never chart gold.

I'm selling all my bullion at the moment, once I've dug it all up from about the garden. 

Garpaldog is a bit like one of those truffle pigs, he can sniff it out once he has the scent.

gg


----------



## cuttlefish

joeyr46 said:


> this is fom trader dans blog you posted as a quote a few posts ago
> Explain how a weak dollar helps the US with it's debt surely a strong dollar helps them pay their debt




Weak dollar helps them pay debt because it lowers the 'real' value of the debt and increases the USD value of US productivity thus increasing their ability to repay their debt.  (my rough laymans exploration).


----------



## joeyr46

cuttlefish said:


> Weak dollar helps them pay debt because it lowers the 'real' value of the debt and increases the USD value of US productivity thus increasing their ability to repay their debt.  (my rough laymans exploration).




if their debt is in yuan strong dollar means they pay less dollars to pay off debt 
is it not so?


----------



## Ageo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It will go down after Christmas when all the festivals around the world have finished. When the Indians and Chinese, who are the biggest users, slow down on buying it. It always does. I never chart gold.




lolol GG was that a funny answer???? Gold for the last few yrs has continued its rise in Jan & Feb.

Sell in March if your looking at selling as thats when demand slows.


----------



## Edwood

physical delivery is down 35% in the last quarter because its getting too expensive for many.  
speculators (i.e. paper) have taken over the market - ala oil 2007.  but wtfdik, perhaps this time its different


----------



## Nyden

You gold bugs aren't at all concerned about all of the commercials for gold on the TV? Just about every day I see an ad from that ABC mob, offering to buy / sell gold. 

Looks rather toppish to me. One can only imagine how harshly gold would be decimated were the fed to actually raise rates  Even if they only raised them by a hairline; the change of sentiment in gold would be astronomical, in my opinion. A flood to the exit gates

I know, unthinkable, though - right?  They'll of course be at 0 forever, and gold will hit 2k by mid 2010.


----------



## Ageo

Nyden said:


> You gold bugs aren't at all concerned about all of the commercials for gold on the TV? Just about every day I see an ad from that ABC mob, offering to buy / sell gold.
> 
> Looks rather toppish to me. One can only imagine how harshly gold would be decimated were the fed to actually raise rates  Even if they only raised them by a hairline; the change of sentiment in gold would be astronomical, in my opinion. A flood to the exit gates
> 
> I know, unthinkable, though - right?  They'll of course be at 0 forever, and gold will hit 2k by mid 2010.




Nyden atm there is a massive influx of both selling scrap and buying bullion.

To me thow any worse news in economic data will push gold up as people now are looking for more safe havens.


----------



## Nyden

Ageo said:


> Nyden atm there is a massive influx of both selling scrap and buying bullion.
> 
> To me thow any worse news in economic data will push gold up as people now are looking for more safe havens.




Ah, but the flip side is true as well. Throw in some *good* economic news - and what possible reasoning does anyone have to hold gold? As far as I'm concerned, it's a hedge against fear and disaster. When fear becomes hope, and confidence - and disaster starts to turn into recovery - why would there not be a huge shift into *productive* assets? 

I would postulate that most current holders of gold are in fact 'weak hands'. Late comers trying to capture some of the glory. All it would take is a little bit of strength in the US to simply floor it.

Can you just imagine what will happen when everyone runs for the exits, and starts selling their gold on eBay - when no one even wants the stuff?


----------



## Ageo

Nyden said:


> Can you just imagine what will happen when everyone runs for the exits, and starts selling their gold on eBay - when no one even wants the stuff?




lol pure speculation, if you have been around the real market and talk to real people (not data) you would understand that gold has gone to another level in peoples mindset. Never before have i seen people who knew nothing on gold and were never holders of it now allocate a small slice of their portfolio into it for wealth preservation.

People have become wiser and understand that paper currencies can always be manipulated which in turn can create alot of crashes to come.

Gold will never ever be the outperforming asset but it will always be the safe haven 1 which most people are starting to see that hedging a small section of the pie is better that being fully exposed to massive growth (i.e shares/real estate).

Gold now is looking brighter than ever IMO


----------



## Nyden

Ageo said:


> lol pure speculation, if you have been around the real market and talk to real people (not data) you would understand that gold has gone to another level in peoples mindset. Never before have i seen people who knew nothing on gold and were never holders of it now allocate a small slice of their portfolio into it for wealth preservation.
> 
> People have become wiser and understand that paper currencies can always be manipulated which in turn can create alot of crashes to come.
> 
> Gold will never ever be the outperforming asset but it will always be the safe haven 1 which most people are starting to see that hedging a small section of the pie is better that being fully exposed to massive growth (i.e shares/real estate).
> 
> Gold now is looking brighter than ever IMO




Pure speculation? That's exactly what gold is - a speculation. You talk as though it's wise to hold gold, and that the _smart_ investors are the ones that are holding. That may very well be the case, but it might not be as well.

Gold has had these sorts of run ups in the past, as you know. I'm sure many people jumped on the band wagon back then as well - were they wise? Nope. Would've been hit for 50% of their money. What's worse, is that had they held on till now - they would be *substantially* worse off because of inflation. Even though gold is allegedly a hedge against such things?

Gold was $750USD in 1978-80 (somewhere thereabouts), and had you bought from *any* date after 78', and held on until 2002 you would have lost an absolute boat load. A 20 year down trend, wow. Protection against inflation? Maybe, if you can time it *just right*. Enough said


Heck, even if you bought gold in 76' for $150, it was 350 in 2000! A term deposit would have multiplied your money a whole lot more than that.


----------



## sinner

Nyden said:


> I would postulate that most current holders of gold are in fact 'weak hands'. Late comers trying to capture some of the glory.




I completely agree. Any gold holder who has not been following the "10% of your money in gold" rule for their investment history is by definition a weak hand and will generally go underwater very quickly on their initial investment.

Gold is not merely a commod, it is a central bank held currency, you can't treat it like "assets" in your portfolio, and you can't expect the CBs to play the worlds sucker on this one. The same lesson everyone learnt around this time last year. Central bank currencies ARE NOT YOUR NORMAL ASSET CLASS. CBs are holding gold at 10% of total world CB reserves, and have been for pretty much ever. Even the much maligned sell off of gold at low low prices was just a matter of keeping gold at 10% of reserves (of course irrational gold bulls never seem to let reality in the way of a good "gold is manipulated" story).

Having seen numerous "this is the top" for gold calls over the last month, as well as numerous just today about buying gold/silver/copper put basket and all this business. FRANKLY, I would love for precious metals to go down in price (especially gold), as I haven't bought any gold in over a year. Too expensive. Bring on the gold crash, I will stand on the other side of anyones put at 10% of my total asset base.


----------



## cuttlefish

joeyr46 said:


> if their debt is in yuan strong dollar means they pay less dollars to pay off debt
> is it not so?




As I understand it the majority of the debt is in USD denominated instruments - US Govt Bonds, TBills etc.


----------



## Beej

Nyden said:


> Pure speculation? That's exactly what gold is - a speculation. You talk as though it's wise to hold gold, and that the _smart_ investors are the ones that are holding. That may very well be the case, but it might not be as well.
> 
> Gold has had these sorts of run ups in the past, as you know. I'm sure many people jumped on the band wagon back then as well - were they wise? Nope. Would've been hit for 50% of their money. What's worse, is that had they held on till now - they would be *substantially* worse off because of inflation. Even though gold is allegedly a hedge against such things?
> 
> Gold was $750USD in 1978-80 (somewhere thereabouts), and had you bought from *any* date after 78', and held on until 2002 you would have lost an absolute boat load. A 20 year down trend, wow. Protection against inflation? Maybe, if you can time it *just right*. Enough said
> 
> 
> Heck, even if you bought gold in 76' for $150, it was 350 in 2000! A term deposit would have multiplied your money a whole lot more than that.




Article in today's SMH making the same arguments as you Nyden! 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/gold-a-useless-asset-to-own-20091207-ke07.html



> *Gold a 'useless asset to own'*
> December 7, 2009 - 12:10PM, SMH
> 
> Gold’s best year in three decades has yet to match the returns of an interest-bearing checking account for anyone who bought the most malleable of metals coveted for at least 5000 years during the last peak in January 1980.
> 
> Investors who paid $US850 an ounce back then earned 44 per cent as gold reached a record $US1226.56 on December 3 in London. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index produced a 22-fold return with dividends reinvested, Treasuries rose 11-fold and cash in the average US checking account rose at least 92 per cent. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold investors are still 79 per cent away from getting their money back.
> 
> “You give up a lot of return for the privilege of sleeping well at night,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. “If the world falls into an abyss, gold could be a store of value. There is some merit in that, but you can end up holding too much gold waiting for the world to end. From my experience, the world has not ended yet.
> 
> [snip rest of article].......




I'm gold "agnostic" (hold a couple of miners though), but thought the above article was relevant to this discussion.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Nyden

Beej said:


> Article in today's SMH making the same arguments as you Nyden!
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/gold-a-useless-asset-to-own-20091207-ke07.html
> 
> 
> 
> I'm gold "agnostic" (hold a couple of miners though), but thought the above article was relevant to this discussion.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




There's obviously a journalist reading my posts! I posted mine before they posted theirs :


----------



## jancha

Nyden said:


> Ah, but the flip side is true as well. Throw in some *good* economic news - and what possible reasoning does anyone have to hold gold? As far as I'm concerned, it's a hedge against fear and disaster. When fear becomes hope, and confidence - and disaster starts to turn into recovery - why would there not be a huge shift into *productive* assets?
> 
> I would postulate that most current holders of gold are in fact 'weak hands'. Late comers trying to capture some of the glory. All it would take is a little bit of strength in the US to simply floor it.
> 
> Can you just imagine what will happen when everyone runs for the exits, and starts selling their gold on eBay - when no one even wants the stuff?




What do you think about the article in the Bull Nyden?

''Where to from here with gold price?''


----------



## Bolivia

Near term - maybe  a bit weaker.

But nothing is going to stop the relentless march down of the US dollar.

The US Gov now has an annual interest bill approaching $600 Billion/year.

In the most profitable year - 2000, the annual surplus was approx 250bill.

So it is highly likely the USA has finally cornered themselves WRT their debt.

If over time the US dollar goes down, then Gold will steadily appreciate. It will have it's ups and downs. But over the next few years, while the world contemplates a new currency paradigm, the world will look to gold.


----------



## Bolivia

And just to add to the USa's woes, they have unfunded liabilities - Healthcare, social service, war pensions etc of approx 45-50 Trillion.

Thats trillion!

Unless their economy suddenly explodes with manufacturing, which will happen eventually when the dollar gets low enough, they are going to be in a serious jam for the next few years.


----------



## Ageo

Nyden;516504 You talk as though it's wise to hold gold said:
			
		

> smart[/I] investors are the ones that are holding. That may very well be the case, but it might not be as well.




Nyden i said its wise to hold a *"small allocation (10-20%)" *of your portfolio to act as a hedge. But everyone has different views, i mean personally whats next best to say a massive debasment of our local currency if it were ever to occur? Gold. Will it ever happen? probably not but the last thing you want is to have tons of cash tied up and nothing covering yourself.

Look at Central Banks and Countries, why do they hold gold? i mean if its a useless investment why is India and China and Russia still stocking up on it??? is it because they know nothing and just enjoy wasting their spare cash??

Nyden like alot of investment classes gold has its place be it big or small.


----------



## Nyden

Ageo said:


> Nyden i said its wise to hold a *"small allocation (10-20%)" *of your portfolio to act as a hedge. But everyone has different views, i mean personally whats next best to say a massive debasment of our local currency if it were ever to occur? Gold. Will it ever happen? probably not but the last thing you want is to have tons of cash tied up and nothing covering yourself.
> 
> Look at Central Banks and Countries, why do they hold gold? i mean if its a useless investment why is India and China and Russia still stocking up on it??? is it because they know nothing and just enjoy wasting their spare cash??
> 
> Nyden like alot of investment classes gold has its place be it big or small.




Governments hold it because, well - what else can they hold? Central Banks and Governments can't go around buying up 100s of billions of dollars worth of stocks, now can they?

Gold does have its place, like I said - as a hedge against disaster. However, this is not what the average buyer is going for lately. Everyone is chasing the hot money, and to me at least - that has alarm bells going off.

Jancha, I have yet to read that article. 

All I'm saying, is that having 20% of my entire portfolio tied up in something that virtually did nothing for 30 years doesn't sound entirely appealing.


----------



## Supra

Bid/Ask  	1156.30  	-  	1157.30

Change  	-5.10  	   	-0.44%

Today we have seen gold shares fall in line with the Friday fall in Gold.

The latest gold price is down another 0.44%! not very significant, so it may be just consolidating before the next leg of its bull run.

After recent runs in the price of gold miners, a pause or correction had to happen, this is just a reaction to the US unemployment data, which in turn made people think a rate hike may be in the wind for the US, which in turn sent the $US higher & gold lower.

There will be further rises & falls in the spot price of gold!

The current pull back does not indicate the long term up trend has been broken.


----------



## explod

Since 1970 gold has gone up 33 times to 1   or US$35 to US$1,250 today.   In 1970 you could buy the average good home for $35,000, to day $500,000 or 14 times to 1,  looks like gold has been the winner by a long way and history has told this same story for over 2000 years.   And I have family who have held gold for that period too and no way will they sell.

And of course later in the week as it did last week it will be rising again.


----------



## sinner

Nyden said:


> All I'm saying, is that having 20% of my entire portfolio tied up in something that virtually did nothing for 30 years doesn't sound entirely appealing.




Jeez! You're as bad as explod! Unconvinced of anything but your own view and damned sure if you don't have to repeat it a hundred times. Seriously Nyden, how many times are you gonna litter this thread with the same junk?

If it doesn't sound appealing, then don't do it! But please stop posting your "view" here, because just like explods opposite, equally vehement and ignorant viewpoint, *have heard it all before, still don't care*.

As if an article in the SMH is supposed to convince me of anything. Gold deniers are gold deniers been around just as long as gold bugs. At least the gold bugs seem to have the capacity for contrarian thought process. Gold used to be "the no earner, no mover" now that it's moving its a bubble and everyone should get out quick. What a joke. You missed the boat, too bad for you sucker.

The worst bit of all is that you're not actively involved in gold in anyway. You aren't buying it, or selling it, you don't contribute analysis or anything useful to this thread.



> Governments hold it because, well - what else can they hold? Central Banks and Governments can't go around buying up 100s of billions of dollars worth of stocks, now can they?




They can't? Are you living in fairy land Nyden? So how is the US Treasury holding equity stakes in BofA, Citi and other major banks? How does the US government manage oil reserves if not by buying and selling oil? How did Treasury rescue Chrysler in the 80s then and why do they want an equity stake in GM now? Why is the Feds balance sheet ballooning full of everything *but* gold if that's all they can hold? Show me one Western government that *hasn't* gone around buying up 100s of billions of dollars worth of stock in the last 30 years and I will eat my hat.

I am sure PBOC is sitting there thinking "****, we better buy some gold today, after all, what else could we do with this USD2trillion pile of money"


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nyden said:


> All I'm saying, is that having 20% of my entire portfolio tied up in something that virtually did nothing for 30 years doesn't sound entirely appealing.




Your example is irrelevant. It's the same as assuming that you had bought and held the DOW at 14500 - you would now need the market to rise another 40% just to break even. You could also have used the example that the USD has 'lost' approx 94% of it's 'value' since the inception of the fed, or that gold has risen from approx $35 to $1200 etc etc. Inflation adjusted, many of the worlds stock markets have not outperformed as they are largely relative to the growth in money supply?

I'm waiting for the break down to jettison the 'weak hands', before the real gold bull starts in earnest and surprises even the nay sayers? The fundamentals for the USA are those of a declining empire, and as history shows, empires are not forever. Only technology has condensed the timeline from hundreds of years to several decades. They simply cannot repay their debts, and when the charade is publicly acknowedged then the next leg down, or the real GFC, will begin and capitalism as we know it in this form will end. 

There is an glut of global production capacity, thanks to China, which will ensure global deflation will be with us for many years. Thanks also to China there is massive stimulis fed misallocation of production & resources that will inevitably lead to a commodity glut (aluminium) as well, which will be devastating for Australia, and cause the exchange rate to fall even further relative to a terminal USD. 

Now selling to build a war chest for buying. Too high too fast?


----------



## Nyden

explod said:


> Since 1970 gold has gone up 33 times to 1   or US$35 to US$1,250 today.   In 1970 you could buy the average good home for $35,000, to day $500,000 or 14 times to 1,  looks like gold has been the winner by a long way and history has told this same story for over 2000 years.   And I have family who have held gold for that period too and no way will they sell.
> 
> And of course later in the week as it did last week it will be rising again.




Again, *that* gain would require fantastic timing. If you bought houses, shares, or just about anything else *after* 78' up until 2002, no matter what the date, you would have made money. If you had bought gold, you'd have lost. (Certain sectors, and all of the other stuff, etc)

Sure, if you bought gold 40 years ago, and - so long as you didn't sell before 2002 - you'd have come out a winner. However, any sort of stop loss or rational would have gotten an investor out long before then, and into better assets.

Sinner, my point is that it's frowned upon - and is almost always temporary. No one likes the idea of the government having their finger in the corporate pie - just look at Telstra.

Sorry for coming into your rampfest thread Sinner. I now realise that only comments involving gold going to the moon are welcome here. ... Oh, and do not assume I am simply anti-gold. I have traded it, on a short-term basis. However, I have done this without even a lick of a concern for the fundamentals - and with success  I simply believe that gold is a terrible performer over any long period.



Uncle festivus - it is not the same point. Your point involves buying the DOW at a peak, I am not talking about buying gold at an exact peak - but simply that if you had bought it - at *any price* after 1980, and held on until 2002 you would have held a *losing position*. A 20 year downward trend (with inflation taken into account) is simply unacceptable.


----------



## sinner

Nyden said:


> Sorry for coming into your rampfest thread Sinner. I now realise that only comments involving gold going to the moon are welcome here. ... Oh, and do not assume I am simply anti-gold. I have traded it, on a short-term basis. However, I have done this without even a lick of a concern for the fundamentals - and with success  I simply believe that gold is a terrible performer over any long period.




This is the exact idiocy I am talking about ^^

To explod, I am a Central Bank loving, pro manipulation deflationista who will stop at nothing to see gold in the ground.

(simply because I pointed out his view has no basis in reality)

To you, I am rampfest goldbug who will stop at nothing to see "anti golds" in the ground. 

(simply because I pointed out your view has no basis in reality)

If you had bothered to check this thread instead of towing your stupid line, you could have noticed I posted charts highlighting the inflation adjusted gold price more than a few times already in November.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> This is the exact idiocy I am talking about ^^
> 
> To explod, I am a Central Bank loving, pro manipulation deflationista who will stop at nothing to see gold in the ground.
> 
> (simply because I pointed out his view has no basis in reality)
> 
> To you, I am rampfest goldbug who will stop at nothing to see "anti golds" in the ground.
> 
> (simply because I pointed out your view has no basis in reality)
> 
> If you had bothered to check this thread instead of towing your stupid line, you could have noticed I posted charts highlighting the inflation adjusted gold price more than a few times already in November.




Tut tut tut,            I in no way indicated or addressed myself to anything you have said Sinner.    May last post was just the big picture and perhaps to some degree directed at Beej to show that over the very long term, property and gold is a great long term investment but at this stage gold in the long term is ahead.

I said not more and no less and sorry if I have interupted something else.

Cheers explod


----------



## Nyden

sinner said:


> This is the exact idiocy I am talking about ^^
> 
> To explod, I am a Central Bank loving, pro manipulation deflationista who will stop at nothing to see gold in the ground.
> 
> (simply because I pointed out his view has no basis in reality)
> 
> To you, I am rampfest goldbug who will stop at nothing to see "anti golds" in the ground.
> 
> (simply because I pointed out your view has no basis in reality)
> 
> If you had bothered to check this thread instead of towing your stupid line, you could have noticed I posted charts highlighting the inflation adjusted gold price more than a few times already in November.




May I request that you explain how my view has no basis in reality? My view is that gold has been a very volatile and poor performer, and that perfect timing seems to be required in order to take advantage of its apparent purpose. 

Please, do elaborate on how that view has no basis in reality.


----------



## sinner

Nyden said:


> May I request that you explain how my view has no basis in reality? My view is that gold has been a very volatile and poor performer, and that perfect timing seems to be required in order to take advantage of its apparent purpose.
> 
> Please, do elaborate on how that view has no basis in reality.




1. You say that gold does not "perform". Incorrect. As a currency, gold debases at a slower rate than any fiat currency (it debases at the rate of production - which is declining - minus the rate of consumption). 
2. You say that gold is not productive. Incorrect. Gold has many industrial/scientific/medical applications. Gold is at least as productive as silicon and more productive than silver.
3. You say that gold is volatile. Based on which volatility measurement? In comparison to what? Other commodities? Equities? Treasury bills? Commodities are volatile by nature. Gold is probably the least volatile commodity I've traded. I've even included charts from a randomly selected commodity future below if you can find me a gold chart that looks even vaguely similar I will eat my hat.

London Wheat (trades same hours as gold): Looks nothing like a gold chart



4. You say that gold is a poor performer. As I mentioned in my previous posts today, gold is not an asset class like stocks or real estate and to treat it as such is stupid. If you don't understand this, or don't understand why, then what are you doing in this thread? This point also covers your "claim" that gold is a poor performer.
5. You say that perfect timing is required: guess what I have been buying gold or silver pretty much every payday since I was 15 and I'm pretty sure my payday isn't perfect timing yet I seem to be doing pretty well on my precious metals holdings. I trade gold all the time and have posted calls and charts in this thread, which had nothing to do with "perfect timing" "to take advantage of its apparent purpose".
6. You say Central Banks buy gold because they can't buy anything else. This is blatantly rediculous. Gold is in fact the SMALLEST market cap of all the currencies which central banks buy and sell.
7. You spout rubbish like this:



> Sure, if you bought gold 40 years ago, and - so long as you didn't sell before 2002 - you'd have come out a winner. However, any sort of stop loss or rational would have gotten an investor out long before then, and into better assets.




Err yeah right, so Warren Buffett bought one fifth of the world entire silver supply in the late 80s early 90s and any "rational" should have seen him out long before now, and into better assets? Then why the hell is he still sitting on that pile of silver mate? You telling me Buffett is irrational or his "stop loss" on a giant pile of silver got hit?
8. You have been spouting the SAME junk for over 6 months now (I just went and checked to confirm). You were bagging the gold bugs because the "rise hadn't eventuated", and saying crap like "what happens when the recovery starts and gold loses its lustre", well guess what the recovery started and people piled into gold. I believe your call was gold to $300 instead of rocketing. Guess what, it rocketed.
9. You also claim that the current gold price is pure speculation when the last years worth of COT reports clearly show central bank interest in selling USD to buy gold. If CB purchasing of a currency is speculation, then what isn't?
10. You say good economic figures result in people flooding to the gold exits, but gold has been rising steadily on the back of a steadily rising NFP curve for almost 12 months now.


----------



## Nyden

sinner said:


> 1. You say that gold does not "perform". Incorrect. As a currency, gold debases at a slower rate than any fiat currency (it debases at the rate of production - which is declining - minus the rate of consumption).
> 2. You say that gold is not productive. Incorrect. Gold has many industrial/scientific/medical applications. Gold is at least as productive as silicon and more productive than silver.
> 3. You say that gold is volatile. Based on which volatility measurement? In comparison to what? Other commodities? Equities? Treasury bills? Commodities are volatile by nature. Gold is probably the least volatile commodity I've traded. I've even included charts from a randomly selected commodity future below if you can find me a gold chart that looks even vaguely similar I will eat my hat.
> 
> London Wheat (trades same hours as gold): Looks nothing like a gold chart
> View attachment 34849
> 
> 
> 4. You say that gold is a poor performer. As I mentioned in my previous posts today, gold is not an asset class like stocks or real estate and to treat it as such is stupid. If you don't understand this, or don't understand why, then what are you doing in this thread? This point also covers your "claim" that gold is a poor performer.
> 5. You say that perfect timing is required: guess what I have been buying gold or silver pretty much every payday since I was 15 and I'm pretty sure my payday isn't perfect timing yet I seem to be doing pretty well on my precious metals holdings. I trade gold all the time and have posted calls and charts in this thread, which had nothing to do with "perfect timing" "to take advantage of its apparent purpose".
> 6. You say Central Banks buy gold because they can't buy anything else. This is blatantly rediculous. Gold is in fact the SMALLEST market cap of all the currencies which central banks buy and sell.
> 7. You spout rubbish like this:
> 
> 
> 
> Err yeah right, so Warren Buffett bought one fifth of the world entire silver supply in the late 80s early 90s and any "rational" should have seen him out long before now, and into better assets? Then why the hell is he still sitting on that pile of silver mate? You telling me Buffett is irrational or his "stop loss" on a giant pile of silver got hit?
> 8. You have been spouting the SAME junk for over 6 months now (I just went and checked to confirm). You were bagging the gold bugs because the "rise hadn't eventuated", and saying crap like "what happens when the recovery starts and gold loses its lustre", well guess what the recovery started and people piled into gold. I believe your call was gold to $300 instead of rocketing. Guess what, it rocketed.
> 9. You also claim that the current gold price is pure speculation when COT reports clearly show central bank interest in selling USD to buy gold. If CB purchasing of a currency is speculation, then what isn't?
> 10. You say good economic figures result in people flooding to the gold exits, but gold has been rising steadily on the back of a steadily rising NFP curve for almost 12 months now.




I didn't make a single call as to what price it would ever go to - I simply proposed a 'what if' scenario, and asked people to tell me what their contingency plan was. Well, turns out that I was both right, and wrong at the same time. Right about the world not ending, and a huge recovery - but wrong about gold. I will admit to that.

Guess what though? Being right about the markets recovering has paid off a whole lot more than buying gold would have. 

It all depends on what economic data it is Sinner. Economic data that may lead to an interest rate rise *will* see gold fall, I am certain of that. I could be wrong though :

As far as I'm concerned, the rules of investing in one asset class apply to another. One must always be prepared to accept a loss, and to be prepared that one may be wrong. I am not Buffet. I do not have 100s of millions of dollars to play around with, nor to lose. If a position is losing, or not performing - I would sell it - despite the class.


----------



## sinner

Nyden said:


> As far as I'm concerned, the rules of investing in one asset class apply to another. One must always be prepared to accept a loss, and to be prepared that one may be wrong. I am not Buffet. I do not have 100s of millions of dollars to play around with, nor to lose. If a position is losing, or not performing - I would sell it - despite the class.




Really don't care what you would do, but it's not like you haven't told us at least four times today already.

Sell away, I will happily add to my pile from whatever you or any other gold denier want to sell (if they ever held even a grain of gold in the first place). I am following the same plan I've been following for almost a decade:

USD cheap? Buy USD.
USD expensive? Sell USD, use profits to buy cheap gold @ 10%.

Hasn't failed me yet.


----------



## Nyden

sinner said:


> Really don't care what you would do, but it's not like you haven't told us at least four times today already.
> 
> Sell away, I will happily add to my pile from whatever you or any other gold denier want to sell (if they ever held even a grain of gold in the first place). I am following the same plan I've been following for almost a decade:
> 
> USD cheap? Buy USD.
> USD expensive? Sell USD, use profits to buy cheap gold @ 10%.
> 
> Hasn't failed me yet.




Well, I'm pleased to see that it's working for you Sinner. I always hope success for others, even when I disagree with them. So, good luck


----------



## Edwood

apologies for interrupting the discussion of fundamentals for holding gold long term or otherwise, but appears we've taken out the previous low.  Change of trend anyone?


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> apologies for interrupting the discussion of fundamentals for holding gold long term or otherwise, but appears we've taken out the previous low.  Change of trend anyone?




For very short term trading could not say.  However it is very usual for it to push down early and late in the week (respectively) when traders are scant.  Conspiracy theory or not, it just seems to happen that way.  Tuesday's action will determine the trend but later tonight our time (on the Nymex) may tell if this is a serious correction.   On the action of the past few months I doubt it though.   Job numbers and other bits to pump green shoots used to push gold down for up to a week, but now only for a day or two.


----------



## sinner

Edwood said:


> apologies for interrupting the discussion of fundamentals for holding gold long term or otherwise, but appears we've taken out the previous low.  Change of trend anyone?




Even if so, CBs will be looking to squeeze out shorts on the way down, so be cautious.


----------



## Beej

explod said:


> May last post was just the big picture and perhaps to some degree directed at Beej to show that over the very long term, property and gold is a great long term investment but at this stage gold in the long term is ahead.




Explod - I see your point and acknowledge it is valid given your example - certainly an investment in gold in 1970 and held to now was no terrible thing! However, as Nyden pointed out the timing of your entry into Gold would have to have been pretty well picked, and you would have had to held through a very long period of relatively poor returns to have realised your 33x capital value multiple. Also of course we are talking $US only here and not $AU, which also might give a different outcome?

Anyway, when comparing to property (from which you would have done pretty well buying anytime between 1970 and a couple of years ago even), and even to a diversified equities portfolio (again you could have entered almost anytime), you also need to account for the income that is earned from those assets. Ie in the case of property - rent received (or saved), and in the case of shares, dividends. Whereas you earn no income from your physical gold and in fact it costs you to store it. So factor in those income streams and I'd reckon that both property and equities would have beaten a physical gold play significantly over that 1970 to present period? Of course there are other reasons you may still have wanted a portion of your investments in physical gold through that period anyway - but that's a bit more like insurance I would say.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Whiskers

Edwood said:


> apologies for interrupting the discussion of fundamentals for holding gold long term or otherwise, but appears we've taken out the previous low.  Change of trend anyone?






sinner said:


> Even if so, CBs will be looking to squeeze out shorts on the way down, so be cautious.




I recently took some profits on shares just in case my estimation was not good... but still hold some on the premise that gold would probably peak around the 1200 mark before going sideways in USD for awhile.

I earlier advocated the AUD weakening against the USD to keep Aus shares up. I'm still pretty confidant the AUD has peaked, but anxiously waiting for it to make a significant and definate reversal trend to bolster our resource maket in particular. 

I'd be surprised if it fell below support getting down near 1,000 USD...  so as long as the AUD falls a bit, it's still getting better for Aus producers.


----------



## sinner

Best hypothetical article on gold I've read in a long time:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15189.htm

From the Unqualified Reservations blog (aka Mencius Moldbug).

Covers the concept of distributed coordination (and its ease in a CB model vs retail), Florentine accounting, hypotheticals on gold, etc. Really great read.

I will include a small snippet on supply/demand



> Suppose, for example, that you have 50 billion dollars, and you use this stash to buy the entire 2008 and 2009 peanut crops. You triple the price of peanut contracts. Congratulations! Your position is now valued at $150 billion. You've made a 200% profit. You've made money just by marking to market. You should be a spammer.
> 
> This is called "market manipulation," or more specifically "cornering the market," and it happens to be illegal. But even if it was not illegal, it would be unprofitable, because you cannot generally profit with this strategy - as you sell, you are driving the price back down. Your peanut contracts are valued at $150 billion - but can you get $150 billion for them? You can't buy lunch with peanut contracts.
> 
> This is called the burying-the-corpse problem, the corpse being the vast quantity of peanuts that you have bought but don't intend to eat. The accounting profit is indeed a mirage. Unless of course you can bury the corpse - ie, get some other fool to take all those peanuts off your hands, at anything like the inflated price you have created.


----------



## explod

Beej said:


> .  Of course there are other reasons you may still have wanted a portion of your investments in physical gold through that period anyway - but that's a bit more like insurance I would say.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Wondrful Beej, the sun has come up,  physical is only 20% percent of my own portfolio.   It *is indeed* a hedge and no matter how you look at it it has proven to outperform property.  I have since 1970 made most of my money out of property as most of us have, starting with our family homes.

I find that the ballances are what works and it is pleasing to see you picking up on that.    In may share portion over the last few months I am ahead over 100%, so what, its just a percentage of the overall, which comes down to 30%, *but hey *that is very good. 

And overnight as I expected the gold price has found support around the 1140 and should now rise again from here.

cheers explod


----------



## Beej

explod said:


> Wondrful Beej, the sun has come up,  physical is only 20% percent of my own portfolio.   It *is indeed* a hedge and no matter how you look at it it has proven to outperform property.  I have since 1970 made most of my money out of property as most of us have, starting with our family homes.





Just to be pedantic, as you are still stating that gold has "been proven" to out perform property - I checked up on 1970 house prices - the median house price then was $14.28k for Australia, against a current median of $487k. So in fact a house bought in 1970 is today worth 34x in nominal terms what you paid back then - exactly the same appreciation as gold over the same period. That's roughly 9.5%pa compounded.

Account for rent received (or not paid) and even discount that a bit to cover property maintenance (say 1%pa), and your return would be increased by another 3-4%pa - let's use 3%. That increases the compounded annual return for property to 12.5%pa, = a return of *100 times your initial invested capital over the 39 year period*. I think that clearly beats gold hands down don't you??

PS: I'm not detracting from your assertion that it's useful to have an allocation of your wealth in gold regardless (in fact I think we have had that discussion before a few times), but we should be realistic about it's historic return relative to other assets.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Ageo

Beej said:


> Whereas you earn no income from your physical gold and in fact it costs you to store it.




Just to clarify and most people dont understand this but if you look hard enough there are a few places that actually pay you interest on your gold.

Something to consider when holding physical long term


----------



## Nyden

Ageo said:


> Just to clarify and most people dont understand this but if you look hard enough there are a few places that actually pay you interest on your gold.
> 
> Something to consider when holding physical long term




But, wouldn't that render it almost useless as a hedge against disaster? In an every-man-for-himself situation, chances are - they would keep it. In a massive depression where gold is confiscated - the government would take it.

I guess you could always take the gold back when things start to look bad though. Unless somehow they're paying you interest whilst you get to hold onto it?


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> apologies for interrupting the discussion of fundamentals for holding gold long term or otherwise, but appears we've taken out the previous low.  Change of trend anyone?




lows taken out convincingly now.  Hope Gummy Learner had some stops on his longs or hedges for his physical


----------



## Edwood

gone long for a trade, looking for high 30's.  stop +3, will move it up as we go


----------



## GumbyLearner

Edwood said:


> lows taken out convincingly now.  Hope Gummy Learner had some stops on his longs or hedges for his physical




Disc
Still holding physical over 50% up since first purchased.
Still holding NCM at entry of $24. Still well up.
Bought and sold OGC short trade at a more than 40% profit last Friday. 

After Obama's announcement about TARP last night, I wouldn't want to get caught short. 

DYOR


----------



## Edwood

GumbyLearner said:


> Disc
> Still holding physical over 50% up since first purchased.
> Still holding NCM at entry of $24. Still well up.
> Bought and sold OGC short trade at a 30% profit last Friday.
> 
> After Obama's announcement about TARP last night, I wouldn't want to get caught short.
> 
> DYOR




cheers for the hindsight calls Gummy   If Obama gave the go ahead does that mean you're adding here for your Xmas 1250? 
still learning this trading thing, on your short trade do you mean you bought and sold OGC, or sold & bought?  
any tips appreciated


----------



## GumbyLearner

Edwood said:


> cheers for the hindsight calls Gummy   If Obama gave the go ahead does that mean you're adding here for your Xmas 1250?
> still learning this trading thing, on your short trade do you mean you bought and sold OGC, or sold & bought?
> any tips appreciated




I don't give tips. That is strictly against the code of conduct of ASF. 
I only have opinions. What you invest in is your choice. I have been bullish on gold and have had read through this thread for many years now. I have seen many people crap on the well researched posts of ASFers like explod and Unc Festivus. My view of 1250 was pure guess work based on trend observance alas I was wrong.  

I'm not a qualified investment advisor and a self-studied backyard economist at best. As Jim Rogers always says Ã'm the worlds worst trader. Well he knows a lot more than small investors such as myself.

So google these words Jim Rogers and inflation. He may be able to give you some insights.

Not a trader mate. Stocks are only a hobby. Like walking the dog or having a beer.

As always DYOR


----------



## Edwood

don't worry Gumby I was taking the P re: tips, just wondered if you had any other gems after your 1250 call (not to say we can't still make it there mind!)

update on last nights trade, limit hit o.n 1145, +140 - always nice to wake up to


----------



## GumbyLearner

Here's Jim Rogers latest. Sounds like Jim is an even worse extremist than Barnaby Joyce. LOL


----------



## explod

Interesting development the last few days, gold and the US$ going up in tandem.  The two flights to safety perhaps, will be interesting to see which one falls off the perch first, the US dollar is pressing up against the down trend line.

Silver has always been a strong guide over the last 6 odd years to me, it has made a very big run up since the bottom of the October 08 crash, has stalled of late but showing new strength the last day or so.   If it can break the old high of March 08, and its trend is certaily heading that way, it is then that gold will go to the US$1,500 that many have been pointing to.  I think Gumby you will be on the mark IMHO


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> Interesting development the last few days, gold and the US$ going up in tandem.  The two flights to safety perhaps, will be interesting to see which one falls off the perch first, the US dollar is pressing up against the down trend line.
> 
> Silver has always been a strong guide over the last 6 odd years to me, it has made a very big run up since the bottom of the October 08 crash, has stalled of late but showing new strength the last day or so.   If it can break the old high of March 08, and its trend is certaily heading that way, it is then that gold will go to the US$1,500 that many have been pointing to.  I think Gumby you will be on the mark IMHO




Can't see it no fundamentals to create boom in price and from an Elliott point of view looks like 5 down and 3 up certainly no impulse wave in the rally so would suggest more likely to go to below $9 in line with all commodities due to lack of liquidity in the system


----------



## explod

joeyr46 said:


> Can't see it no fundamentals to create boom in price and from an Elliott point of view looks like 5 down and 3 up certainly no impulse wave in the rally so would suggest more likely to go to below $9 in line with all commodities due to lack of liquidity in the system




Do not agree, the trend is up if you look at the last 6 or seven years for gold.  Elliot wave theory is fine over very long time frames but in my view very unreliable in the short term.  Elliot wave theory usually follows (or is with) fundamentals if you have studied it well.  Fundamentals have a cylce, referred to as the business cycle and average about eight years.  However due to the size of the financial world today and the mounting difficulties of multiples of economies over the globe, the outcomes this time, are, to say the least very uncertain.  In such times people will put their faith in tangible assets such as land or gold.

The US$ is fundamentally and technically in a downtrend and gold, due to huge investment buying, is in an uptrend.  Why because paper money printing presses are turning it into trash.


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> Do not agree, the trend is up if you look at the last 6 or seven years for gold.  Elliot wave theory is fine over very long time frames but in my view very unreliable in the short term.  Elliot wave theory usually follows (or is with) fundamentals if you have studied it well.  Fundamentals have a cylce, referred to as the business cycle and average about eight years.  However due to the size of the financial world today and the mounting difficulties of multiples of economies over the globe, the outcomes this time, are, to say the least very uncertain.  In such times people will put their faith in tangible assets such as land or gold.
> 
> The US$ is fundamentally and technically in a downtrend and gold, due to huge investment buying, is in an uptrend.  Why because paper money printing presses are turning it into trash.



You have never studied Elliot wave Fundamentals play no part and it is the only discipline I have ever seen repeatedly call tops and bottoms totally against so called fundamentals. No it is not the holy grail and sometimes we read it wrong or at times it can have a few possible interpretations until they clear up in due course and show a clear way to label the waves as in the silver chart above. Absolutely no impulse wave in this last rally (since nov 08) 
Time will tell but as Elliot is a contrary indicator as opposed to trend following quite happy for you to disagree


----------



## joeyr46

The US$ is fundamentally and technically in a downtrend and gold, due to huge investment buying, is in an uptrend.  Why because paper money printing presses are turning it into trash.[/QUOTE]

Not so sure about fundamentally in a downtrend fewer dollars in the world surely means they are more valuable so should be in an uptrend The US is not printing money as fast as the credit is defaulting so there are less US $ not more IMHO
And as the US is moving into deflation due to excessive amounts of debt (Actually I think it has already passed the point of no return, rents being driven down at the moment (both commercial and Residential) and the stock market only rallied back (incidentally about where Elliot said it would rally to) and showing signs of topping, we can expect the US$ to be in an uptrend in fact depending on what you class as a trend the US$ bottomed in 08 rallied and retraced in a wave 2 move and while Gold moved higher the dollar didn't.
And the dollar is starting to move higher again (short term we should get a retracement before continuing higher.IMHO)


----------



## explod

joeyr46 said:


> You have never studied Elliot wave Fundamentals play no part and it is the only discipline I have ever seen repeatedly call tops and bottoms totally against so called fundamentals. No it is not the holy grail and sometimes we read it wrong or at times it can have a few possible interpretations until they clear up in due course and show a clear way to label the waves as in the silver chart above. Absolutely no impulse wave in this last rally (since nov 08)
> Time will tell but as Elliot is a contrary indicator as opposed to trend following quite happy for you to disagree




You may have missunderstood what I was saying.    Fundamentals may not play a part but it is uncanny that it has been discovered that the Elliot Wave and fundmental based movements in markets more often than not run with each other.  And I have read that in Elliot Wave theory texts, long time back now so could not readily dig it out now.   It is why all the signals, charts etc need to be considered as a whole in ones approach.  Not that I am any master of any, but try to keep a handle on as much as I can.


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> You may have missunderstood what I was saying.    Fundamentals may not play a part but it is uncanny that it has been discovered that the Elliot Wave and fundmental based movements in markets more often than not run with each other.  And I have read that in Elliot Wave theory texts, long time back now so could not readily dig it out now.   It is why all the signals, charts etc need to be considered as a whole in ones approach.  Not that I am any master of any, but try to keep a handle on as much as I can.




Can't remember a text like that but will agree Elliot Wave often picks a movement which turns out to be in line with fundamentals later on when fundamentals are known. Is this what you mean? And yes agree other signals charts etc need to be considered as well. Hope I'm not getting too agreeable LOL but still disagree on where Gold and Silver are heading


----------



## explod

joeyr46 said:


> Can't remember a text like that but will agree Elliot Wave often picks a movement which turns out to be in line with fundamentals later on when fundamentals are known. Is this what you mean? And yes agree other signals charts etc need to be considered as well. Hope I'm not getting too agreeable LOL but still disagree on where Gold and Silver are heading




Yep, good to get back on topic, would be keen to know your time frame on gold, mine is medium to long term.

A good knowledge of fundamentals should anticipate market movements in advance of everything else.   Of course we do not have such a crystal ball but my way is to try to understand the underlying strength or othewise of the market first and formost.

And a good mixture of agreement and disagreement is healthy debate.


----------



## explod

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan 
Posted: Dec 18 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: December 18, 2009 at 3:31 pm 

Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,

In remarks yesterday I mentioned that we would be watching to see at what point gold would shrug off its deleveraging carry trade pressure and begin trading as a safe haven asset of its own. It appears that we might have reached that point based on what I am seeing in today’s price action.

The Dollar is higher, particularly against the Euro (pressure is still coming from the Greece story) but gold was able to ignore that and attract buying on its own merits. That is particularly impressive given the sizeable down day yesterday for the yellow metal. One day does not a trend make however so we will need to see how the market reacts to all of this come next week. 

The buyers showed up around the $1100 level and put up enough pressure to force some of the weaker shorts to cover. It could well be that the physical market sees value down here and if so, the shorts are going to have their work cut out for them. 

Bonds, the safe haven asset of choice yesterday, were lower today as the schizophrenic trading continues.

About the Dollar, it is still working higher on good volume so one could argue from a technical perspective that it has a ways to run to the upside yet but because this time of the year is so tricky on account of book squaring and year-end positioning, I am hesitant to be too dogmatic about its prospects. Money gets slung around in the pits this time of year in large quantities with seemingly no meaning at times. That can generate some pretty good volume but the number has to be taken with some skepticism merely because it is related to closing out of positions on both sides.

Fundamentally, there is no reason to buy the Dollar unless you really believe that the Fed is going to raise interest rates (something which I personally do not) because you are faced with the hard reality of an ever increasing supply of the same versus reduced demand ( I noticed yesterday that the New York Fed custodial accounts is worrisomely closing in on the $THREE TRILLION mark). That bodes for lower prices for the greenback as economic law tends to be axiomatic about that sort of thing. Technically it looks much better on the weekly chart with both the 10 week and 20 week moving averages turning upwards and price above both. I will have to see a weekly close above the downtrending 40 week moving average near the 79.50 level before I would become friendly towards it for the short term. Long term it is going lower, much lower.

Interesting enough, there were several commodity markets that were higher today even with the Dollar moving higher besides gold. Silver and copper were both up. Crude oil was up and even the soybean market moved higher. Cattle too were up so the carry trade unwind slowed down quite a bit in today’s session. Next week is going to be even more unpredictable as the pits thin out considerably.


----------



## explod

I still have my eye on the lumber market and nothing I see in that tells me that anyone is expecting homebuilding to go GA-GA anytime soon. After shooting higher on index fund buying and managed money plays for what seemed like a “cheap” commodity, it has given up a large portion of those gains. Until lumber prices begin a bullish trend, the economy cannot be said to be improving. It may have bottomed out but that is a long way from saying it is going to enter a period of strong growth. It seems to me like that market is telling us that we are going to head sideways for some time. One thing is for sure – based on this market (lumber), there is not going to be any “V” shaped recovery. Looks to me more like the letter “L”, where the thing collapsed and then moved along a bottom for some time. We’ll see.

The gold shares have stabilized near the 420 level on the HUI and some of the daily technical indicators are at their respective oversold thresholds which will tend to reinforce any move higher that can punch through overhead resistance. Chart-wise that means the HUI needs to climb back above the 455 level to generate a buy signal.

I want to again reiterate what I wrote yesterday – Be careful about reading too much into market action at this time of the year. For many traders, 2009 is now a thing of the past as they head to the exits to take some time off before the New Year comes around. Frankly the thought of what awaits us in 2010 is very disturbing. What shoe will drop next is the fear that haunts me. How long can the little boy with the finger in the dike hold back the flood of consequences? I wish we had political leaders who were true statesmen, willing to sacrifice their own personal gain for the long term economic health and prosperity of our nation, but alas, those few that exist can only sound the alarm at this point and hope that enough of their fellow citizens will rally to their cause to demand the right policies for the sake of their children and grandchildren’s future.

Many of us who believe in honest money and thus are advocates of gold are contemptuously dismissed and sneered at by the elites as “gold bugs”. Contrary to the image that they have spun into existence, I do not want to see the Dollar collapse and head into decline. No nation can ever be great and prosperous with a weak currency. Find an example in history in which that has been the case and I will cede the point. The truth is however that we are faced with certain realities, the least of which is a ruling crowd who seems determined to follow the same policies and practices that have led to the inevitable decline of any nation or kingdom which has implement them. To ignore these facts or pretend as if they do not exist is not the fruit of wisdom. Wisdom goes hand in hand with prudence and the prudent man seeks out a refuge during a time of crisis. For many of us, that place of refuge is the “barbarous relic” from a bygone age – gold. When we get leaders who implement policies that are sound then we can leave our place of refuge. Until then, we wait and watch.

From J S Minset.   cheers explod


----------



## joeyr46

explod said:


> Yep, good to get back on topic, would be keen to know your time frame on gold, mine is medium to long term.
> 
> A good knowledge of fundamentals should anticipate market movements in advance of everything else.   Of course we do not have such a crystal ball but my way is to try to understand the underlying strength or othewise of the market first and formost.
> 
> And a good mixture of agreement and disagreement is healthy debate.




Time frame 3mths to 24 mths


Fundamentals seem to be at the most bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom (at the time) I know it's not so, but it is hard to seperate truth from fiction or the real facts don't come out at the time. 
Like the inflation deflation argument at the moment. are we printing more dollars (inflation providing the underlying debt does not default faster than the creation of dollars)or are we creating debt leading to more default and deflation.I personally think the latter and hence my current view on gold as cash will be king.
However if as things get worse and the fed (US) continue to try to fight with more dollars they may well (as normal for governments) go too far and Gold in the longer term will go to your US$1500 or possibly well above, but not before a retracement from this level first.
AUD gold price is a lot different as it depends on were our dollar goes down I think but not sure how far certainly a lot lower than here.
But will agree gold or silver are definitely a proper long term hold in physical were can be got at. History shows this is paramount to safety when things go wrong and governments behave increasingly in their own interests as they are at the moment



Agreed disagreement often brings out something one may have overlooked or not thought about in a certain way


----------



## explod

> joeyr46 Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading
> 
> Fundamentals seem to be at the most bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom (at the time) I know it's not so, but it is hard to seperate truth from fiction or the real facts don't come out at the time




Depends on your take of the fundamentals.   Those in the popular press are certainl;y most bullins at the top, IMHO   but not the real dig in type if measured properly in my view.


----------



## sinner

I am not convinced the long term top for gold is in yet.

In fact on my trading account I still see no reason to exit paper gold longs on the daily (although we are getting close - if today can't close above 1123.5 I will exit longs on a break of todays low).

There are two main issues at play to me:

Bull: China is supposed to be buying the dips on the spot market. This might put a non-technical floor under the price.
Bear: We are replaying the 681-1000 rise all over again: too fast too soon. In an orderly move we would have tested the 993 zone already for support. But since we haven't, technically we should/could go back there. Sometimes technicals will play out over fundamentals.

To my eye, we are still in a demand zone on the weekly and the retrace to 1102 (roughly 25% of the current wave) was just to fill in the huge gaps created during the first 3 weeks of November.

I have presented a weekly chart with a few possible playouts, no guarantee from me it will play out, just food for thought.

Play out 1. Trendline, China buys the trendline.
Play out 2. Technicals, we touch the dotted blue line to test support.
Play out 3. Gold rush, RSI9 (plus green lines on chart) shows what happened last two times we crossed the 80 line in an uptrend.


----------



## Edwood

interesting sinner - 993 would be nice.  its all about the USD at the moment tho, has had a good run and looks ready to retrace a little which should be positive for gold.  on that basis gone long XAU this morning 1091.6, stop at evens


----------



## sinner

Edwood said:


> its all about the USD at the moment tho




I disagree.


----------



## Edwood

sinner said:


> I disagree.




fear enough

USD TWI posted its low on 26 Nov, XAU put in a temporary high same day then rallied to 1220's (arguably on a short squeeze) before rolling over.  since then while USD has been rallying XAU has been declining.  USD is about to decline again temporarily and XAU should rally.  which one leads which one might ask?  USD imo.

Still looking for XAU down to the 1000 area (as posted late Nov) so not far away from your 993 area sinner

nohing is for certain of course, just my view


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> fear enough
> 
> USD TWI posted its low on 26 Nov, XAU put in a temporary high same day then rallied to 1220's (arguably on a short squeeze) before rolling over.  since then while USD has been rallying XAU has been declining.  USD is about to decline again temporarily and XAU should rally.  which one leads which one might ask?  USD imo.
> 
> Still looking for XAU down to the 1000 area (as posted late Nov) so not far away from your 993 area sinner
> 
> nohing is for certain of course, just my view




Agree with you Edwood.   In the last 12 months on the charts and apart for a short period in March of this year the gold pirce and the US$ index have moved almost precisely in opposite directions.  

Some short periods of moving together when fear drives all quarters to the so called "Safe haven"  ie. gold and the cash.

Wont post it hear more for the correction thread but James Turk latest on Kitco is well worth a look by gold followers.

cheers for the festive all

explod


----------



## Uncle Festivus

An interesting juncture for all markets? Weekly equity charts of FTSE & SPX show a rolling over, coinciding with the Dubai & Greece fiasco's and shift from the Euro into the USD. Even though the 'pretender' index the Dow had a good day, the GDP figure revision was ignored? Take a bow boofheads-who-call-themselves-economists - calling it at 3.5% initially, then revise it down to 2.8, then down to 2.2%! Take out the government subsidy bits and it's still a pale imitation of a recovering economy.

Not good news for gold though, momentum is now down comrades .
Sold out of all my gold equities 2 weeks ago now, still got bullion though.

Then again, if the Eurozone s#it hits the fan then some Europeans might just decide to pile into the last currency standing - gold? Still, must wait for this reaction phase to play out though......USD carry trade unwinding.....suck all those equity capital raisings into _the system_ then splat!!! Insiders _still_ selling big time!


----------



## sinner

Let's face it of course there will be some affect of the USD on gold, because it is priced in USD.

But I don't think the USDX is somehow the key here at all. It's a common misconception, they even spout it off on Bloomberg all the time.

What you should be watching is US Treasuries, Japanese Government Bonds and German Bunds.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and the ABX subprime index.

http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?


----------



## Glen48

USA owes so much money at this stage that if they paid it back at $1 Billion a day it will take 366 years to repay.. Gold has no choice but to rise. I saw some expert predicted it would drop to 1080 and then start on the next leg up.. Merry Xams to all us who believe.


----------



## Beej

Glen48 said:


> USA owes so much money at this stage that if they paid it back at $1 Billion a day it will take 366 years to repay.. Gold has no choice but to rise. I saw some expert predicted it would drop to 1080 and then start on the next leg up.. Merry Xams to all us who believe.




Wow "impressive" numbers there!! Did you know that $1B amounts to less than 2.4% of current US GDP per day?? How's that for an "unimpressive" number? And the gold expert - did they have a crystal ball? It's amazing that they can predict the future like that! I just hope their predictions turn out better than most of yours have for the past couple of years Glen48 

Merry Xmas to all at ASF! Even to those who I think should stick to wearing their tin foil hats 

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Beej said:


> Wow "impressive" numbers there!! Did you know that $1B amounts to less than 2.4% of current US GDP per day?? How's that for an "unimpressive" number? And the gold expert - did they have a crystal ball? It's amazing that they can predict the future like that! I just hope their predictions turn out better than most of yours have for the past couple of years Glen48
> 
> Merry Xmas to all at ASF! Even to those who I think should stick to wearing their tin foil hats
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej



Actually I think the figure that is interesting is the one where the US requires foreign investment of approx $2BILLION A DAY just to stay breakeven with it's debt commitments. Add in the interest bill, future unfunded spending etc and you have a small crisis. Several states are already insolvent, as are several countries.

While the US technically will always be able to print more money to repay any debts due, it means than US citizens will have to be committed to substantially lower standards of living ie like the 35 million currently on food stamps, or the 18% who are under or unemployed.

The problem then is not so much for the 'tin hat brigade', who have gotten it right so far, but the Pollyanna, sun-always-shines-tomorrow brigade who conveniently dismiss bad data, and who totally failed to see any glimmer of the first Global Financial Crisis, and who now think that the worst has passed and we are forever onwards and upwards again ad infinitum?

The next leg DOWN is about to start.


----------



## joeyr46

Glen48 said:


> USA owes so much money at this stage that if they paid it back at $1 Billion a day it will take 366 years to repay.. Gold has no choice but to rise. I saw some expert predicted it would drop to 1080 and then start on the next leg up.. Merry Xams to all us who believe.




If the US can't repay debt that will be deflation not inflation so don't expect gold to go up


----------



## Uncle Festivus

joeyr46 said:


> If the US can't repay debt that will be deflation not inflation so don't expect gold to go up



Deflation is better for gold - fiat currency demonetisation will ensure that happens, despite short term 'flight to qaulity rallies. Gold is the currency that won't, relative to all other paper  money currencies, be evaporated to oblivion by human financial hubris?


----------



## GumbyLearner

ATM golds getting spanked by a "strong" :bonk: US dollar.

I'm waiting for $1.5K Au and $2K Platinum in mid 2010.

DYOR


----------



## moXJO

GumbyLearner said:


> ATM golds getting spanked by a "strong" :bonk: US dollar.
> 
> I'm waiting for $1.5K Au and $2K Platinum in mid 2010.
> 
> DYOR




China is eating it up atm


----------



## explod

moXJO said:


> China is eating it up atm




China has a very vested interst in a strong US dollar.   The US owes them heaps and China holds US treasury bills big time.  So much so that they have to download slowly, so holding the dollar up and keeping gold at bay is a frantic preoccupation for China at the moment.  

If it fails everything is going to be jammed at the gate.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> While the US technically will always be able to print more money to repay any debts due, it means than *US citizens will have to be committed to substantially lower standards of living* ie like the 35 million currently on food stamps, or the 18% who are under or unemployed.




That's the key alright.



> The next leg DOWN is about to start.




Nah, not quite yet... all psychological.

I think now that Obama has started kicking in some of the regulatory changes/improvements that Bush flagged, but failed to act on, the yanks have gasped a bit of a sigh of relief and have just been toughing it out for a bit to maintain their living standards. I suspect as the short term household financial outlook improves as opposed to the macro economic numbers, they will start to spend again and keep the market going for a while yet.

I think the old cliche once bitten twice shy will kick in when the effects of stimulus spending phases out and the markets start to slide again. I'd say that the gravity of the US macro economic prediciment and unfunded  health and retirement obligations etc will only reflect in permanently lower living standard expectations when the gov does not have the capacity to prop up the next financial market down turn in the US to the same extent.

In the meantime, for the POG, as poignantly pointed out by others there are titanic vested interests in the USD and the POG at work which will take some time yet to diminish before I think the POG will make any significant gains.

It peaked a tad higher than the 1,200ish I expected, but I still expect it to trade pretty much sideways in USD for maybe years rather than months... but better in AUD in the short to medium term with the falling AUD/USD, despite ( if I heard correctly) that Macquarie Wealth economist on Ten news tonight expecting the AUD to firm again in the new year.


----------



## daki

U.S. will have to engage into new war to battle unemployment! where will gold go from then?


----------



## explod

daki said:


> U.S. will have to engage into new war to battle unemployment! where will gold go from then?




To do that they will have to print even more money to either prop up unemployment or, as I suspect what you are saying, to wage a militarly war, and further dilute the US dollar so gold will just keep steadily going up IMHO


----------



## joeyr46

Uncle Festivus said:


> Deflation is better for gold - fiat currency demonetisation will ensure that happens, despite short term 'flight to qaulity rallies. Gold is the currency that won't, relative to all other paper  money currencies, be evaporated to oblivion by human financial hubris?




Gold priced in US dollars will go down as the US dollar gets stronger because there are less of them as debt defaults (thats deflation) the opposite of printing USD and causing it to weaken (inflation) which is what gold has always been a hedge for. Gold wont evaporate to oblivion and after deflation (debt  default )causing everything to become cheaper or the dollar to be more expensive against goods (not neccesarily against other currencies ) if the government prints more money at that point then Gold could well run to extremes, but deflation has to run its course IMHO first


----------



## moXJO

explod said:


> To do that they will have to print even more money to either prop up unemployment or, as I suspect what you are saying, to wage a militarly war, and further dilute the US dollar so gold will just keep steadily going up IMHO




Maybe the bunker buster bombs being fast tracked (not sure how reliable) means trouble for Iran. http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6288

Only problem is Iran can shut down oil supply as they updated their navy and hold the Strait of Hormuz.
Is the US really willing to get into another war, or will Israel kick it off and leave it to the US.


----------



## explod

Gold and Silver to Explode with Treasury Issuance in 2010 

 By Dr. Jeffrey Lewis        
Dec 30 2009 2:34PM

www.silver-coin-investor.com



Now that 2009 has come to a close, investors are looking forward to the happenings of 2010.  One of the most important events is the issuance of nearly $2.2 trillion in Treasury bonds to fund government spending.  Although $2.2 trillion seems relatively small compared to a federal debt just over $12 trillion, the size is magnified when you consider its impact on the markets.

2009 Treasury Sales

The 2009 Treasury issuance was relatively tiny due to the amount of quantitative easing enacted by the Federal Reserve.  To help ease the credit markets, namely the Treasury markets which allow the government to spend money, the Federal Reserve printed over a trillion dollars and purchased several hundred billion dollars of US Treasuries, as well as nearly $1 trillion of “agency debt” or mortgage-backed securities.  

After the Fed’s buying spree, there was only $200 billion in fixed income remaining, creating a net issuance in 2009 of $200 billion.  Of course, $200 billion is virtually nothing when it comes to the world economy and the amount of money in existence, and thus, $200 billion was consumed relatively easily, with no real impact on the marketplace.

The Situation in 2010

Fixed income issues are set to increase from $1.75 trillion to $2.25 trillion next year, with the difference mostly comprised of heavier borrowing by the Federal Government via the Treasury markets.  

Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has only $200 billion remaining in its quantitative easing fund to buy agency debt and US Treasuries, and the funds will only last until March under the program enacted early last year.  This leaves a total of $2.05 trillion unfunded that must be borrowed to keep government programs in the black – at least with capital and not actual earnings.  

Therefore, in the next year, the US Treasury will need to borrow more than $2 trillion without the help of the Federal Reserve.  China has already said it is limiting its purchases of US Treasuries, and the government is proving its resolve by redeeming long-dated bonds and rolling them into short term debt.  Other purchasers, such as Japan, have their own financial problems.  The remaining countries, institutions, and other investors aren't too keen on earning low rates on what is quickly becoming riskier debt.  

What is the solution?  The Fed will simply need to print more money.

The Fed Will Have to Step in with its Printer 

Remember, this recession was triggered due to a shortage of credit.  To aid in both creating credit, as well as providing short term loans to businesses and government, the Federal Reserve began to create money to ease the burden.  As a result, the Fed bought more debt than anyone else by a factor of 10.  

Moving into next year, with the same credit problems and net issuance of $2.25 trillion, the Fed will have to further its quantitative easing (inflation) programs to keep the Treasury markets liquid.  Should the Federal Reserve continue to print money to gap a shortfall in Treasury sales, the creation of $2 trillion would create inflation of 25% overnight.  Obviously, as in all markets, inflation will not come out of the woodwork for a period of months and possibly up to two years, but it will eventually reach the market.  Subsequently, in 2010, investors of all types need to be incredibly prudent with their money and protect their assets with precious metals.



Dr. Jeffrey Lewis


----------



## Bolivia

Explod: "What is the solution? The Fed will simply need to print more money"

The other solution, which actually happened over the last Treasury issuances, is a substantial increase in interest rates. The risk premium that buyers of treasuries are willing to pay has begun to increase. This will continue to happen as sovereign risk increases in all debt laden countries.

In effect, the Fed has no ability to stop these rate rises, totally going against what they want. Remember the Fed wants rates low to keep stimulating the economy, but in order to fund the federal deficit the Gov needs to keep issuing debt. As Explod rightly points out, this year will see a huge net issuance, which will only be taken up at considerably higher rates.

This whole scenario smacks of impending stagflation. Rates rising out of control, economic growth falling due to higher rates, and of course with higher rates it means higher prices. 

The initial response WRT the US dollar will be an upward move, due to the higher rates, but when one looks through the reasons for the rate rises, the dollar will soon spiral. 

The outlook for gold in the medium to long term can only be bullish under this unfolding scenario.

Good luck to all.


----------



## GumbyLearner

It was great to meet Explod and his Missus this week. We went to Dalia's in Dromana and drank lattes, long blacks etc.. until the cows came home (Great coffee by the way) discussing the precious metals market. Wonderful to meet up with a fellow ASFer in person. Had a great yak and confirmed everything the thread entails thus far. Cheers explod, you're a top bloke.


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> It was great to meet Explod and his Missus this week. We went to Dalia's in Dromana and drank lattes, long blacks etc.. until the cows came home (Great coffee by the way) discussing the precious metals market. Wonderful to meet up with a fellow ASFer in person. Had a great yak and confirmed everything the thread entails thus far. Cheers explod, you're a top bloke.




Likewise Gumby and you could take the learner bit out too, your experience, being first an Aussie, but from living in the Asia region over the last few years adds an extra omph to your inputs.   A month or so back we entertained Roysolder from New Zealand for a few days and find it is very good putting the human touch to the cyberspace.    Waaay off topic, but the wide perspectives helps to confirm our understanding of the financials and in turn the reasons why gold continues and will continue to gain strength.

And by the action over the last few days and as business gets back to normal trading I believe your US$gold price of 1250 will be hit sooner than many believe.  On every turn the thick veil of lies covering the real and dreadful state of the US, and indeed of most economies, is becoming blatantly obvious.


----------



## sinner

My weekly chart posted in the previous page still in play. We did not test yet!

Daily is setting up for a fall. Since the market opened on Jan 4 I have been buying all my signals in the 1098-1118 region. Have already cashed out a lot of that into the spike on todays Tokyo open. Has anyone noticed every time Tokyo takes a holiday that gold spikes hard? Can anyone explain this phenomenon?

Tomorrows London session will be the important one to watch. If we can stay above 1119.70 all will be well for longs for a few days yet. Else watch the hell out. 

The previous and proceeding posts are all trading analysis by myself, for myself - posted here for the benefit of other traders to share their thoughts and experience. Please do not follow my calls. Please do not interpret my calls as financial advice.


----------



## explod

> Sinner
> 
> Daily is setting up for a fall.
> 
> 
> The previous and proceeding posts are all trading analysis by myself, for myself - posted here for the benefit of other traders to share their thoughts and experience. Please do not follow my calls. Please do not interpret my calls as financial advice.




A bit miffed at your signals Sinner and the gold price seems to be going in the opposite direction to your indicators.   I suppose more clarification may take it off topic.   Perhaps you could start the "Sinner's gold trading thread" where we can give greater attention to your issues.


----------



## Edwood

pretty solid move o/n there Sinner, could be the lower high we needed to see to get some traction going


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> A bit miffed at your signals Sinner and the gold price seems to be going in the opposite direction to your indicators.   I suppose more clarification may take it off topic.   Perhaps you could start the "Sinner's gold trading thread" where we can give greater attention to your issues.




Why exactly are you "miffed" and what at, I don't understand? At my "signals" which I expressly stated were my own analysis and NOT signals, posted for others to share their thoughts (which nobody did). What indicators? A red line is an indicator now? 

In any case, I took the H4 trendline break last night during London around the 1151 area to good effect, woke up to see New York had dropped her down at 1128.


----------



## Edwood

gold looking like it will head down to the 1080 level again in the near future.  (not sure of timeframe, but probably by mid-Feb )


----------



## brerwallabi

yeh yeh timeframe short term you mean and then tell us the rest, back up to US$1250 time frame mid March?????
Gold is getting very predictable your 1080 could be on the cards but whats after that it must go up if you think its going to hit and not fall below 1080


----------



## Edwood

hi brerwallabi - sure short term is what I'm interested in, not holding something like gold long term, get a lot more from it by trading the moves in my experience.
yes if 1080 can hold then higher is possible.  higher from here is also possible, but appears its going to retest 1080 first.  if 1080 can't hold then 1020 comes into focus.  
all possibilities mind, nothing is guaranteed (including higher prices long term)
cheers


----------



## Edwood

nice breakdown of the h&s neckline over night


----------



## Sean K

Edwood said:


> nice breakdown of the h&s neckline over night



Might get your 1080..


----------



## Edwood

kennas said:


> Might get your 1080..




yep shaping up - some form of retest of the neckline would be nice to load up some more


----------



## Out Too Soon

Edwood said:


> yep shaping up - some form of retest of the neckline would be nice to load up some more




So that's why LGL & CXC & I imagine others sp are making like skydivers at the moment. Is this a good buying opportunity coming up or has Gold lost it's luster?


----------



## Edwood

Out Too Soon said:


> So that's why LGL & CXC & I imagine others sp are making like skydivers at the moment. Is this a good buying opportunity coming up or has Gold lost it's luster?




depends on your timeframe as always - I am long now from 1092.6 with stop at even but only looking for a $10 move
If we go through 1070 the shine will be off a bit I would think?  But its early days


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> depends on your timeframe as always - I am long now from 1092.6 with stop at even but only looking for a $10 move
> If we go through 1070 the shine will be off a bit I would think?  But its early days




closed for 34 pts - time for a beer


----------



## skyQuake

Edwood said:


> closed for 34 pts - time for a beer




34pts of beer? Thats alotta beer 

Goldies have all recovered well off the lows so they're anticipating a rebound of sorts tonight.

Cheers


----------



## Edwood

ha ha SkyQuake - gawd no, 3 or 4 pints would sew me up


----------



## Edwood

looks to be probing the bottom (so to speak) - long again, 1086, stop at even


----------



## sinner

I am getting less and less convinced that this current move is "the move" in gold.

Still waiting for market to show its hand - what's happening now is certainly tradeable but looks to be a setup for something very big. Direction unknown. Makes me nervous. Accumulate physical PMs as a hedge on any shorts and trade small lot size.

My market positions and charts remain unchanged - until 1137 is breached I am holding shorts from just under 1151 happily locked in some profits. Still waiting to see the trendline test.

Talk on the wire this week of China+India bids waiting on the interbank market at 1050. We might see other banks retract their bids to get those orders filled (this seemed to have happened in EURUSD this last week!). Just as I offloaded longs into Tokyo weakness earlier this month - I will offload shorts into China strength as it comes around. For me this is a prudent strategy.

Looking at lower timeframe charts - seem some heavy demand was fed in around the London close. Could have been LIFFE traders exiting their short positions ahead of the weekend or strong demand for gold into the 1600GMT fix. I am also looking at 1075.8 as a possible bear trap where retail goes short and CBs go long to smash the market out - so be careful around this area!


----------



## explod

Posted: Jan 27 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: January 27, 2010 at 2:55 pm 

Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,

The December US new home sales number released this morning tripped up the equity markets and brought further buying into the long bond with risk aversion trades the play of the day. Analysts ( I sure wish I could grow up to become one of those!) were expecting sales to climb 2.8% when they actually were reported dropping 7.6% from November 2009. That was once again enough to send money pouring back into the Japanese Yen and to a certain extent, the US Dollar with the result that most commodities were hit by another wave of selling as Managed Money continues to liquidate long positions and some hedgies play the short side.

Gold was up overnight but the home sales number unnerved would-be longs out of fear of further long liquidation by the fickle, short-term oriented crowd allowing bears to shove prices lower. However, the same buyer/buyers of size appeared near session lows and were able to push it up off its worst levels midway through the session. Later on, a wave of fresh selling appeared which overwhelmed their valiant effort to move price higher. So far this buying is coming in any time gold dips below $1100. As I said yesterday, it remains to be seen whether they are large enough to eat into the Managed Money and Hedge Fund algorithm-based selling. The longer gold can hold above support layered between $1080 – $1100, the better the chance of it forging a trading range within a period of consolidation. I want to continually remind the readers that both China and India will become active (if they are not already) on setbacks in the price of gold as their long term strategy of acquiring gold for their reserves is precisely that, “long –term”. They are not momentum buyers but value buyers ( yes, some of them still actually exist in this world of hedge fund idiots). As such, they will look to make their purchases into any waves of speculative long liquidation that might occur. Value buyers show up during period of price weakness (where have you heard that before?)

I am still watching the long bond very closely for signs of any potential upside breakout as that would be the clearest signal to me that this market has voted on an “L” shaped “recovery” (I use the word ‘recovery’ very loosely here because there can be no ‘recovery’ without job creation but that is the favorite buzz phrase for MOPE these days) or worse, another leg down in the economy. A “V” shaped recovery would see the long bond dropping sharply and taking out levels last seen in December of 2009. So far the bonds are having trouble getting through the 118^25 – 119^00 level as sellers are appearing there in size so the jury is still out as to what this market is going to do. Suffice it to say the tendency of late has been for higher prices and lower long term rates. Even on the short end of the curve, the market is saying that the chances of any interest rate hike are basically ZERO. No one in the interest rate markets believes any of the BS coming from those yakking about the Fed moving to sop up excess liquidity. As if they needed any further convincing, today’s home sales number is evidence just how sick the real estate markets remain. Even with the feds throwing around taxpayer money to prop up sales, it just ain’t working. People without jobs do not buy houses. It is just that simple. For that matter they may not be buying many Toyotas either judging by the recalls. Ouch. 

One further note on the bonds – supply issues are perhaps the only thing keeping this market from moving much higher for now. Traders are still looking at massive, and I do mean ‘massive’ amounts of bond sales, to finance the spending orgy by the current administration and its pals in the Congress. Any talk about “spending freezes” amounts to a snowball in hell since the amount being discussed is miniscule compared to the overall federal liabilities that are being generated. The current rate of spending guarantees an unsustainable increase in interest payments alone within the next 5 – 7 years. Throw into this hellish mix the pitiful fiscal condition of many of the US States, and the only way this sort of witches brew of fiscal poison can ever hope to be dealt with is through a Dollar devaluation. 

While the Dollar was higher today due to risk averse trades, it still appears to be having trouble with the 79 level on the USDX chart. Momentum indicators are positive but momentum is also waning. Bulls will have to push price past that level in a convincing fashion or we are going to see further selling in the form of stale long liquidation. We will continue to watch its activity for signs of what is coming next.

The gold shares as indicated by the HUI were weak once again today. The technical indicators on the daily chart are approaching oversold levels so that might help put some kind of bottom in them but they have a lot of work to do yet to repair the chart damage that has been inflicted. The weekly chart has the 50 week moving average coming in near the 378 level which corresponds with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from late 2008 through late 2009. The setback in price is pretty much typical of a bull market in a corrective phase. Price could theoretically move as low as 335 or so without doing any serious long term chart damage but that would certainly not be welcome for the friends of gold. 

I should note here that since the week of Christmas 2009, gold has been moving almost in lockstep with the price action of the S&P 500. What that tells me is that hot money flows are ebbing and flowing as risk is either in or out. When equities tank, gold tends to move lower and when equities rise, gold tends to rise with it. That is the signature of Managed Money flows. These flows are automated algorithm trades and are the primary drivers of today’s markets. Without them commodities or currencies cannot generate a sustained move higher. However, in the case of gold, gold is also a safe haven trade and therefore a clash arises between these algorithms based on price momentum and value based buyers of large size who are not momentum oriented. The latter group are the pure fundamentalists who study the larger macroeconomic picture and based on their analysis acquire gold for wealth preservation, and in the case of the increasingly influential far-Eastern Central Banks, for diversification of their massive reserves. To further complicate the price action in gold, we have the usual orchestrated bullion bank price rigging activity to deal with which is always present on rallies. 

After the move lower in gold since last week, it will be enlightening to have a look at this coming Friday’s commitment of traders data to give us some insight into just how much of this liquidation type selling was present and how much might be fresh short selling.


----------



## Edwood

we've had a couple of tests of the mid-1070's so far & rejected pretty swiftly each time.  Really needs to hold these levels to keep the happy-happy-joy scenario going....


----------



## Edwood

tried to find a pretty picture to add, but I could only find this one


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> we've had a couple of tests of the mid-1070's so far & rejected pretty swiftly each time.  Really needs to hold these levels to keep the happy-happy-joy scenario going....




Seems to b e an interesting level Edwood, trader Dan has a bit to say on just that area, full story at JSMineset :-



> Back to gold – speculative long liquidation continues its rather torrid pace dropping off substantially in yesterday’s down market. Both longs and shorts are getting out with the shorts having their intentions frustrated by the buyer of size that continues to make their presence felt below and near the $1,080 region. It is evident that physical demand for gold is helping to stem the rate of price decline in gold. Bears are continuing to pressure the metal trying to reach further fund stops below the $1074 level but are being stymied by the strong buying that is occurring. The longer gold can bounce back from the current lows near $1,080, the stronger that support becomes technically as tentative speculative longs will begin dipping their feet in the water with nervous shorts quickly ringing the cash register when prices dip down near this level. That serves to reinforce the level further. As usual, time will make it clear for us. I am encouraged however to see this determined buyer continuing to surface on these selling bouts. Could it be China or India?
> 
> For now, the technical posture in gold remains bearish for the short term so rallies will continue to find willing sellers until price moves back above the $1100 level and remains there for a least two consecutive sessions. Support remains near the $1075 level with another level of support beneath that at $1,030 – $1, 025. Incidentally, February gold enters its delivery period next week so the speculative action will be focused on the April contract. It will be interesting to see what we get in the way of gold deliveries, not that most of us believe anything that the Comex warehouses report. You could probably have 8000 contracts of gold stopped and the warehouses would report a movement of 1,200 ounces out.
> 
> I will send up a monthly gold chart later on today.
> 
> One of the big problems that the gold bulls have is the poor technical performance of the gold shares. It is difficult to get too excited about the metal’s prospects when you have hedge funds leaning on the shares with their ratio spreads. We really need to see the HUI get above 407 – 410 to garner some bullish excitement and give us some signs of life. For right now, about the best thing I can say for the shares is that many of them are extremely oversold on the daily charts.


----------



## MRC & Co

From the best trader the planet has ever seen by a country mile:

http://www.investorazzi.com/category/george-soros/


----------



## paulhood

does anyone have any idea what may happen to gold if countries in Europe defult of their debts......may guess is currencies will fall against the US and a sell-off on the markets, but will gold rise in this instant.......will gold stocks be sold off along with the rest of the market.....any thoughts


----------



## Beej

No discussion here today of the near $50 fall in the Gold price overnight????? I can understand why the USD rallied last night (capital feeling the Euro), but why such a big sell off in Gold in such a short time?

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## subasurf

I'm really wanting to move into gold and silver commodities at the moment but need to build of some starting capital first. I don't want to miss this.


----------



## Edwood

Beej said:


> No discussion here today of the near $50 fall in the Gold price overnight????? I can understand why the USD rallied last night (capital feeling the Euro), but why such a big sell off in Gold in such a short time?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




because the majority of the market currently is in paper - i.e., held by speculators.  They're willing to move quickly when situations change.  Gold is through 1070 now, next stop 1020 (altho markets rarely run in a straight line so we could see bounces along the way)


----------



## Edwood

paulhood said:


> does anyone have any idea what may happen to gold if countries in Europe defult of their debts......may guess is currencies will fall against the US and a sell-off on the markets, but will gold rise in this instant.......will gold stocks be sold off along with the rest of the market.....any thoughts




I think last nights price action answered your question


----------



## Whiskers

My preferred count atm is that gold will bottom out shortly for a minor 'iv' and go on to test new highs before a more significant correction. There's a bit of support around these levels and it has come back to the rising trendline.

If these levels fail to hold my revised count would be looking out for 1006ish.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

paulhood said:


> does anyone have any idea what may happen to gold if countries in Europe defult of their debts......may guess is currencies will fall against the US and a sell-off on the markets, but will gold rise in this instant.......will gold stocks be sold off along with the rest of the market.....any thoughts




'Flight to quality' of the $USD initially until all realise it too is in the same unpayable debt predicament, so the fallout will be lower gold and more so equities. Then the real flight to quality or last currency standing will begin - gold substantially higher. But, I'm not even going to look at anything gold until gold is below $1000 - out of all equities, holding only shorts & bullion.......



subasurf said:


> I'm really wanting to move into gold and silver commodities at the moment but need to build of some starting capital first. I don't want to miss this.




The trend is down for gold at the moment so follow the trend......trading....

A currency made of paper or a currency made of gold? Which one will last? And then there was 1!

Just be patient - if you make only one 'investment' in your life just wait for the right time, don't get flipped in & out in the wash......



> "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, *with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...*"
> Alexander Fraser Tytler, Scottish lawyer and writer, 1770




Nearly there comrades, just have to be patient


----------



## explod

Beej said:


> No discussion here today of the near $50 fall in the Gold price overnight????? I can understand why the USD rallied last night (capital feeling the Euro), but why such a big sell off in Gold in such a short time?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Ida been there Beej, had a problem and Docs. appointment this morning.   Nuff said though now,  Uncle has it spot on IMHO    

I am also holding physical and one stock.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> My market positions and charts remain unchanged - until 1137 is breached I am holding shorts from just under 1151 happily locked in some profits. Still waiting to see the trendline test.




Check.



> Talk on the wire this week of China+India bids waiting on the interbank market at 1050. We might see other banks retract their bids to get those orders filled (this seemed to have happened in EURUSD this last week!). Just as I offloaded longs into Tokyo weakness earlier this month - I will offload shorts into China strength as it comes around. For me this is a prudent strategy.




Check.



> Looking at lower timeframe charts - seem some heavy demand was fed in around the London close. Could have been LIFFE traders exiting their short positions ahead of the weekend or strong demand for gold into the 1600GMT fix. I am also looking at 1075.8 as a possible bear trap where retail goes short and CBs go long to smash the market out - so be careful around this area!




Check.


----------



## explod

And from Trader Dan this week, courtesy of JSMinset.

Looks like shaping up as a very interesting week indeed.

If you go the the JSMinsite page you can link to relevant charts and further commentary from Dan.

cheers explod



> Posted: Feb 06 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: February 6, 2010 at 12:42 am
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> The COT chart for gold is going to be a bit misleading in that it consists of data that only covers through Tuesday of this week and did not catch the sharp move lower of the last two days of the week. On both Monday and Tuesday of this week, gold had rallied strongly off the $1,080 level where a buyer of size had been very active. That buying took prices $40 higher off that support level reaching $1120 as of the close of trading Tuesday. If you look closely at the managed money position, you can see that the net long position actually showed an increase which corresponds to the rise in price.
> 
> That was prior to Wednesday when sellers came into the market with strong selling tied to long liquidation and fresh shorts. That of course took gold down $80 in the course of 3 days time. We will unfortunately have to wait until next week to see how much further the spec long category was whittled down.
> 
> I should point out that the Producer/Merchant/Processor/User category has seen a rather significant reduction in their overall net short position and is now back at levels last seen in September 2009 when gold was trading near $1,000. Look for that position to be even smaller after this past Thursday and Friday’s debacle. The same holds true for the Managed Money position.
> 
> The small specs have bled down 19,000 net longs during the last few weeks.
> 
> We will need to see open interest stabilize before we get a solid bottom in the gold market. The comedown in total open interest is something we have seen repeatedly as this decade long bull market in gold has played out before us. There is nothing new here except for the fact this recent bout of long liquidation and open interest reduction is occurring from a new nominal high price and will find a floor at a HIGHER LOW price in gold than the previous long liquidation waves.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Breaking news from the Onion


----------



## explod

> Posted: Feb 08 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: February 8, 2010 at 2:49 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> Today was, “Let’s throw away the Dollar and Buy everything else in sight” day. The entire commodity sector had money flowing back into it in a big way today as both the Yen and the Dollar were jettisoned in favor of “risk” plays. Copper reversed its collapse building a bit on Friday’s bounce. Ditto for silver and for crude oil. Even pork bellies were higher today.
> 
> The effect of all this was a steady flow of buy orders into gold the entirety of the session. So far it has pushed to a high near $1,074. If it can get back above that critical level of $1,080 and hold there for a couple of days, it has a much better chance of entering a range trade rather than making another leg lower as technicians will point to bear-flagging action unless it recaptures the former broken support level where our big buyer of size had once been making their presence felt. While it is nice to see the gains in gold, technically it has a lot of work to do to repair the severe chart damage of the last week.
> 
> Once again the problem is the mining shares as the HUI still can barely manage even a bounce. The hedgies are continuing to sit on the shares with their ratio trades. The sheer “logic” of this trade reflects just how ignorant the majority of hedge fund managers are and how algorithms have taken over the markets at the expense of reality but it is what it is for now and with as much money at their command as they have, until these guys decide to either reverse those spreads or lift the short leg, the shares are going to underperform. Same comments as Friday – the HUI will need to get back above the 400 level to initiate more short covering and kick in some fresh buying.
> 
> You can get a pretty good feel for how the battle between the inflationists and deflationists is playing out by watching a few key markets such as copper and soybeans but a better picture still remains the Continuous Commodity Index ( I still do not like the CRB index because it is too heavily weighted in energies). The CCI needs a weekly close above 481 – 482 to give the inflationists a reprieve from the recent selling barrage in this sector and turn that weekly chart friendly again on the shorter term. Long term its uptrend still remains intact. Short term the trend encourages selling into rallies.
> 
> As usual we are back to watching the broader equity markets and the currency markets to gauge the psychology of investors/traders. The S&P 500 will have to climb above 1105 and hold there for two days to convince some of the shorts to get out. While the Dollar is moving lower today, as long as it remains above 79, the short term trend is in favor of the bulls. Money flows are what markets have become all about these days and it is those two primary markets that determine pretty much where that stuff goes.




Trader Dan's column can be found on the JSMinesite webpage.   Many say this webpage is a bit far out.   In view of the current financial unravelling I do not agree and some good financial insights on what is really going on can be picked up on this free webpage.

Gold for the moment is volatile yet rangebound.   The long term support level for the trend of the last decade is at around $US870 an ounce.


----------



## explod

Notice on the "Marc Faber Thread" whilst talking of currency collapse he mentions gold going to I million dollars and ounce US.   Whew,  too much, and Jason Hommell discusses gold reaching $50,000   unbelievable.   

Anyway back to todays world with Trader Dan, courtesy JSMineset:-



> Posted: Feb 11 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: February 11, 2010 at 4:45 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> Gold put in a solid performance today slicing through the barrage of bullion bank selling centered near the $1,080 level and running all the way to the downtrending 20 day moving average before it halted. The sharp move higher came even as the Euro was knocked sharply lower which is quite positive for gold as it seems to indicate that gold is generating safe haven flows out of currency fears; something we have been hoping to see for some time now. The fact that the Dollar could not sustain its gains today is very telling. Unless the bulls can push the Dollar higher immediately, they are in real danger of losing downside support in the USDX on account of the extremely large number of stale long positions that have been built up in that market. Momentum to the upside has stalled so the bulls are going to have to impress right now to stem a counterattack by the bears. A technical washout in the Dollar will occur with a crack of 79.
> 
> Along that same line, the mining shares finally came back to life today. The surge in the HUI today took it above the 400 level and serves to confirm that it is indeed sold out for now having put in a double bottom near the 370 region. That level should hold on any subsequent moves lower if indeed these shares are set to resume their upward move. Its move higher turned its 10 day moving average higher which is also friendly and should encourage dip buying. Also, its session high cleared the 20 day moving average. If it can manage to close above that level, it would be most friendly. The next big test for the HUI will come somewhere near the vicinity of 418 -420.
> 
> Bellwether copper, had a very strong upside day today with its price move confirming a short term bottom and a swing in momentum over to the inflation camp and away from the deflation camp. You have to wonder if China has been active in the copper market the previous few days given the strong buying that has been present down near recent lows.
> 
> In general, commodities across the board were higher today, with the CCI, Continuous Commodity Index, now back above its ten day moving average.
> 
> Bonds are weaker but still have not fallen completely apart. They are trying to hang on to 117^00 for support for if they fail there, technicians will see that as a sell signal and attempt to take them down more sharply.
> 
> Today was a victory for the inflationist camp and a blow to the deflationists. Tomorrow is Friday and one never knows what a Friday will bring with all the pre-weekend book squaring especially coming in front of a holiday on Monday of next week. But for today, the friends of gold must be pleased.


----------



## SeM0s

Is gold down for the long term, now?


----------



## SeM0s

*Gold - February 15, 2010*

*Summary*

Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Up
Revision Point: Break above 1260
Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the potential corrective phase.





Without any change in or basic outlook, as presented in the last week’s report, we expect the completion of wave A.ii.3 at or around the February 11, ’10 high at 1097.85. If wave A.ii.3 has already completed at the February 11, ’10 high, then we would expect a 3-3-5 or a Flat correction to complete wave ii.3. Thus, if this scenario is correct, and if wave A.ii.3 has already completed, we would then expect wave B.ii.3 to come down close to, or even below, the start of wave A.ii.3  (1044.55). On the other hand, if A.ii.3 is not yet complete, then the form of correction may be different.




The alternative scenario to keep in mind, which may currently be beneficial for forming our entry and exit strategies is given in the second image. As per this alternative, after the December 22, ’09 low as wave 1, we are in a second wave Expanded Flat, with wave A of the Expanded Flat completing at January 11, ’10, wave B at the February 5, ’10 low and now we are setting off on a C wave rally to complete wave 2. In this scenario, the target of wave 2 will be above the January 11, ’10 high at 1161.75.


----------



## Whiskers

That's an interesting count, SeM0s!

Can you give a larger degree chart with your premise for wave *B*


----------



## SeM0s

Whiskers said:


> That's an interesting count, SeM0s!
> 
> Can you give a larger degree chart with your premise for wave *B*




I am sorry, I replied earlier with a link to one of my articles from February 1, which seems to have been removed. I am just posting the image of the weekly chart from that article now, to clarify my longer term outlook. Best Regards.


----------



## Edwood

here's a take on the nearer term - expecting we'll follow the channel on upwards now


----------



## Edwood

decent reaction at the median line, would like to see us back to 1105 for starters


----------



## Edwood

nice drop off there, closed shorts manually at 1106


----------



## SeM0s

*Gold - February 21, 2010*

*Summary*

Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Up
Revision Point: Break above 1260
Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.
The price action during the last week invalidated our preferred count and raised our previously alternative count to the preferred status.





With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low, we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30). However, given our current outlook, we will expect a downward move at the completion of wave 2 to make lows below the February 5’10 low.




As a current alternative, we have a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low and now forming wave c.II to complete wave II.3. As per this alternative scenario, we would expect wave c.II to terminate at around the 1137 level, from where the downward move can be expected to resume


----------



## explod

Big news the other day that "China was not interested in IMF gold"  the price then dropped.      he he, today the following:



> The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it had no comment on a rumor that China is the buyer of the remaining 191.3 tons of gold the IMF is selling.
> 
> Alistair Thomson of the IMF's Press Office told Kitco.com that the agency does not comment on speculative stories, calling this a "sensitive area" of discussion.
> 
> The unconfirmed rumor was based on Russian news reports and some sources said it boosted gold futures prices.
> 
> In his daily commentary, Jon Nadler, Senior Analyst for Kitco Metals Inc. wrote, “According to the Russian FinMarket news Agency, Chinese officials have confirmed the intention for China to buy the remaining 191.3 tones of IMF gold that are still for sale. The rumors have however not yet been confirmed. “
> 
> The IMF announced the sale of its remaining 191.3 tons to the open market in mid-February. Reportedly the IMF couldn't sell its gold to central banks like China and India, traditional big buyers, so it had to resort to the open market.
> 
> In September 2009, the IMF announced an intention to sell 403.3 tons of gold; India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka purchased close to 212 tons by the end of the year.




Today from Dan Norcini per JSMineset:



> Posted: Feb 25 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: February 25, 2010 at 2:07 pm
> 
> Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
> 
> Dear CIGAs,
> 
> You have to be really impressed by gold’s performance today. It had three, no, make that four, strikes against it. First, the equity markets dropped sharply. Second, bonds ran strongly higher in a flight to safety. Thirdly, the Dollar was marginally higher. Fourthly, crude oil dropped nearly $3.00 barrel while copper was hit hard. In other words, all of the usual deflation trades were back on today with investors/traders moving towards the risk aversion plays. Yet, gold refused to break down and around mid morning began climbing back into positive territory. At the same time, the mining shares also moved well of their lows helping to further confirm the strength at the Comex. As the session wore on, gold gained more upside momentum closing the pit session trade just off its best level of the day.
> 
> The price action in gold indicates that it is trading on its own merits for at least today and acting like the proverbial safe haven that it has always been historically. The fund algorithms have seriously distorted this role recently because those computer generated trades just jettison nearly everything in sight when their set of various inputs signal sells. The notion that gold is a “risky” asset that should get sold during such times when risk is being avoided contradicts history yet that is exactly what has tended to occur with the metal particularly when equities were being sold off. Remember, these computer generated trades are just that, “computer generated”. As such they are generally not selective but are rather quite indiscriminate as there is no human thinking or analysis involved. All that these infernal things are designed to do is to front run other orders coming in or jam prices higher or lower in the pursuit of ultra short term profits. That is what makes today’s move higher in gold so telling. Someone is buying in sufficient size to absorb any algorithm selling along with the usual bullion bank price capping efforts.
> 
> That brings me to the Dollar – it continues to gain at the expense of the Euro, the Swiss Franc, and the British Pound (read that as Europe land) as it is winning by default rather than any bullish scenario. Even at that, I keep mentioning its deteriorating price chart. The bearish divergence continues to show itself and momentum is waning but the bears just cannot seem to break it down technically. We will need to watch the 80 level on the USDX to see if the shorts can knock it below there. If so, they have a legitimate shot at taking it down to 79.75 where a large number of technical sell stop orders are waiting. With the kind of strength gold has been demonstrating by its refusal to break down, a technical sell off in the Dollar should easily allow gold to break through the barrier erected at $1,130. We will have to wait and see how things develop.
> 
> I mentioned yesterday that the bulls in the mining sector need to hold the line near the 390 level in the HUI to prevent a move down towards the 375 level. They are digging in admirably this morning but will still need to push the shares high enough to move the index back above the 405 level to generate increased nervousness among the shorts, who have got to be disappointed that they could not build on yesterday’s downside momentum. They were certainly running to cover this morning once price took out yesterday’s high. Support in the HUI lies at today’s low near 380 with stronger support at 375.
> 
> The long bond is back above the major moving averages climbing above the resistance barrier corresponding to the 20 day moving average having flipped the technical indicators back to the buy side. We will need to see how they act the next few sessions to see if they too are ranging. As you can probably tell by now, there are not a lot of these major markets that are trending right now in the short term but are rather bouncing back and forth in a range trade as players try to figure out what is next (inflation or deflation).


----------



## explod

From JSMinset today:



> Ignore the IMF sales – Soros is right about gold
> By Dominic Frisby Feb 24, 2010
> 
> George Soros is a man who has outwitted governments before. In 1992 he made more than $1bn by short-selling sterling, as the UK government was eventually forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. So when he speaks, investors listen.
> 
> Last month, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he declared that gold is "the ultimate bubble". Fears were quickly sparked that the precious metal would tumble.
> 
> Various writers, fund managers and investors worked themselves into a frenzy. Many jumped ship and within a week we were trading down to levels last seen in October, almost $1,050 an ounce.
> 
> But one canny investor, it seems, was buying. George Soros…
> 
> A fortnight or so after his "ultimate bubble" quote hit the headlines, it emerges that George Soros has actually more than doubled his investment in gold. He now owns some 6.2 million shares in the US-listed gold exchange traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), worth some $680m. His investment vehicle Soros Fund Management also increased its holding in the Canadian gold miner Yamana (LSE:YAU) .


----------



## SeM0s

*Summary*

Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Revision Point: Break above 1260
Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.





The market did not have any surprises during the last week. The price unfolded quite as expected. With a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low. We are now at or close to the completion of what we expect to be wave c.II. However, there still seems to be a potential for the price reaching close to the 1138 to 1142 mark.




It is also important to keep in mind an alternative interpretation of the move down since December 03, ’09, while planning any potential trades:

With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low (1044.55), we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January 11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30).


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> here's a take on the nearer term - expecting we'll follow the channel on upwards now




following the script so far


----------



## Whiskers

Edwood said:


> following the script so far




I'm looking north also, for a new high in the months ahead, maybe well into the 1300's. What is your plan/forcast with the pitch fork, Edwood?

I don't like your big corrective count SeM0s. I cannot even begin to imagine a scenario where the POG could fall back toward 600ish. 

I'm thinking the diagonal triangle for wave 'c' and probably '4' was a good sign the near term low is in.

Controversial count I know, but I'm treating the larger count like a diagonal triangle even though 1 and 4 didn't overlap and arguably needed to come withnin 10%... but I'm not certain within 10% of what... anyway, I'm working with what I feel is Elliotts original philisophy, a combination of FA and psychology to help my count rather than any strict later day interpretation of the rules that automated systems/analysis, that weren't so prolific in Elliotts day, may corrupt a little.


----------



## Edwood

hi Whiskers - your count looks fair to me - I reckon from here a visit to the upper parallel is on the cards and then on to new highs


----------



## So_Cynical

A couple of weeks ago the world Gold council released there full year 2009  'Gold demand trends' publication....makes for interesting reading.



The volume of total identifiable gold demand during 2009 was down 11% on 2008 levels at 3,385.8 tonnes.
ETF demand in 2009, at 594.7 tonnes, was 85% higher than in 2008.
Gold supply in 2009 was up 11% on the levels of 2008. The single biggest contributor was recycling activity.



			
				World Gold Council said:
			
		

> Total gold supply during the year was up 11% on 2008 levels. As shown in the graph below, a significant rise in the supply of recycled gold and a modest rise in mine supply were partly offset by lower levels of producer dehedging and significantly lower official sector sales. It therefore appears that supply had a negative impact on the gold price during 2009. However, this annual analysis misses one crucial point - supply spiked higher in the first quarter, but dropped very sharply over the following two quarters. Despite a modest rise in the final quarter, total supply in Q4 was 27% below the levels of Q1.




http://www.gold.org/assets/file/pub_archive/pdf/GDT_Q4_2009.pdf
~


----------



## explod

Well the twixt of the tounge is certainly no worries to our friend Jon Nadler from Kitco.   Could not resist posting up the following little excerpt from todays letter to Kitcoenons (*a 61% retracement, indeed*:-



> The yellow metal –according to technical analysts at Commerzbank – might rise towards the $1150 to $1162.00 level if it manages sustained closings above previous resistance at $1135.50 an ounce. The $1150 number represents a 61.8% retracement from December’s $1226 high, and it is of interest to those who are Fibonacci sequence followers, while the $1162 figure harks back to gold’s January high.


----------



## sinner

I have not traded spot gold since $1050 was reached, as mentioned multiple times something is brewing and it is not "the move".

Last night we reached and breached the 1136/7 level which was my previous level of interest.

Still unsure now of what the next move will look like, even despite last nights performance.

If you put a gun to my head and demanded my opinion, I would opine something along the lines of a low volume re-test of demand around $1050, from which a better analysis can be produced. If I was to be completely wrong and POG went straight up in a straight line to $5000 from here I wouldn't buy it, same as I didn't buy the original "too hard too fast" rally to the 1000 zone.

China has been making plenty of noise about commodities being overvalued - even on the wire today I saw "China says price of commodities outstripping global recovery" or something like  that.

All this conjecture, has of course, nothing to do with the accumulation of physical gold and silver, which I continue to do at the rate my trading P/L and normal productivity allows - roughly 10% of every green $ goes into PMs.


----------



## SeM0s

*Gold - March 07, 2010*

*Summary*

Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Revision Point: Break above 1260
Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.




There is no change in the situation, as it appeared at the time of our last report. Both the alternatives presented in our last report are still valid. We present our current report with updated images and reproducing the relevant parts of the last report:

With a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low. We are now at or close to the completion of what we expect to be wave c.II. However, there still seems to be a potential for the price reaching close to the 1138 to 1142 mark.




It is also important to keep in mind an alternative interpretation of the move down since December 03, ’09, while planning any potential trades (as presented in the second image):

With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low (1044.55), we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January 11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30).


----------



## sinner

So, what you're saying sem0s (admittedly in a very fancy way) is ...that we could go down from here...and if we don't then we will go up from here?

I better add that to my trading plan...


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> So, what you're saying sem0s (admittedly in a very fancy way) is ...that we could go down from here...and if we don't then we will go up from here?
> 
> I better add that to my trading plan...




No No. What he is _really _saying is that if you sign up for his trading signals you will make a packet of money through his superior trading calls. Of course you will never see him actually making a trade let alone a decent sample of 20 -100 of them. Makes you wounder hey? How helpful is all this labeling and drawing of lines in actual trading.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just on golds swings and round-a-bouts.

Are we seeing some under performance here. Oil, risk currencies, equities etc have all kicked up the last two days yet gold been going down the last 4. 

Interesting.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Just on golds swings and round-a-bouts.
> 
> Are we seeing some under performance here. Oil, risk currencies, equities etc have all kicked up the last two days yet gold been going down the last 4.
> 
> Interesting.




The last 6 months has been awash with "risk arb" opportunities of every sort as normal market correlations keep breaking and re-establishing themselves everytime another part of the economy craps out and then bailed out.

My current fav is long EURJPY short ES (longterm), but recently closed a long April crude short EURUSD (shortterm) play did pretty well also. I have even been seeing intraday plays of short Asia indices/long Europe indices and vice versa from the Sydney interbank open on a few days since Feb of this year.


----------



## Edwood

one for the physical bugs.  interesting read, reckon he must be long tho 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/its-going-implode-buy-physical-gold-now


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> one for the physical bugs.  interesting read, reckon he must be long tho
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/its-going-implode-buy-physical-gold-now




Thanks for that link Edwood, a good read.   These effects must flow on to all currencies not backed by gold, and that is all currencies.   Anyone interested in maintaining value in the overall equity of thier portfolio ought to have a good read via this link, IMHO

Many of us who have followed this thread over the years are not surprised and are well prepared.


----------



## So_Cynical

Just wondering if anyone is concerned about a potential ETF gold bubble...the SPDR Gold ETF is the 7th largest gold holder in the world, and the money that has flowed into that ETF could just as easily flow out when the sentiment turns....is this an issue for anyone?


----------



## SeM0s

*Gold - March 15, 2010*

*Summary*

Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Revision Point: Break above 1260
Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.





The market saw a decline during the last week. We may have seen the completion of wave II.3 at the March 3, ’10 high (1045.10) – as shown in the main image. This would imply that we are now in the third wave decline. If this is correct, then we are likely to see the swiftest and the longest sell off awaiting us in the upcoming days, without getting a break above the March 3, ’10 high at 1045.10. This sell off, if it is a thirdwave sell off, is likely to be longer in magnitude than the sell off witnessed from December 3, ’09 high (1226.30) to the December 22, 09 low (1074.90).




Alternatively, the March 3. ’10 high may not be a completed wave II.3, but rather a wave b of a possible second wave Expanded Flat correction underway, after the completion of a possible wave i.C.2 at the February 22, ’10 high (1130.85). If this scenario is to hold valid, we are likely to see a wave iii.C.2 rally in the upcoming days, taking the price above the February 22, ’10. However, before this rally, we are likely to see fall below the February 25, ’10 low at the 1087.72 mark, possibly to between the 1080 to 1070 mark, completing wave c.ii.C.2.


----------



## Whiskers

This little potential H&S looks ominous.

It it eventuates it'll probably trigger a break of the uptrend line.


----------



## explod

Though few of late as we trend sideway you have put in some great posts guys.  I have found however that gold is a very difficult one to guage in the shorter term.   My strategy has been to hold the bullion for the long term as a hedge against other investments going pear shaped which has worked well for me over the last five years.  Of course a stronger Aussie dollar does dilute gains to some extent, but in spite of that, the overall growth of gold against currency weaknesses generally has put gold up with leading strategies for growth.

Our long term chart from Kitco says it best of all.


----------



## explod

> I still believe that the Central Banks of both China and India are interested in acquiring more physical gold for their reserve diversifcation process and will be active if they feel price is at an attractive level. Consider their plight – they were moving from Dollar denominated paper to increasing holdings in Euro denominated debt – what did that gain them with the collapse in the Euro? Move to British Pound denominated debt? Sure – why not if you are a glutton for punishment. Gold just keeps looking more and more attractive in this environment.




There are some very interesting developments overall in the last week which indicates that more sentiment is moving towards gold as an alternate currency base.  As well as the following link for all of the article encompasing the above excerpt by Dan Norcini 

http://jsmineset.com/

Also check out   http://www.gata.org/

And as a lead into the enquiry regarding price control over the P/M market the link above(first one) from trader Dan gives an indication that some of the manipulative activities may finally get through to US lawmakers.  However this is all about preserving the status of paper money folks and the *system* will not give up without extreme  resistance.  

Any attention from official levels to moderate or curtail institutional short sellers of paper bullion contracts will IMVHO have a profound impact and see the price of physical gold rise substantially.

On top of overall currency concerns I think that also on a seasonal basis the next few months may be very interesting indeed on where the price of gold is going.  To my mind (*and just opinion*it will be up against all currencies by more than 20%.   In the meantime of course it remains around record levels for both the Euro and the Pound.  

We shall see.


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> Any attention from official levels to moderate or curtail institutional short sellers of paper bullion contracts will IMVHO have a profound impact and see the price of physical gold rise substantially.
> 
> On top of overall currency concerns I think that also on a seasonal basis the next few months may be very interesting indeed on where the price of gold is going.  To my mind (*and just opinion*it will be up against all currencies by more than 20%.
> 
> We shall see.




Yeah, I would say 20% would probably pull it up for the next significant correction. I still can't see any circumstance where the POG would go ballistic.

I'm thinking wave iii and iv are done and a neat minor wave ii zig zag is probably also complete.

It looks like it has bounced off the 3 month MA (deep pink) again.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, I would say 20% would probably pull it up for the next significant correction. I still can't see any circumstance where the POG would go ballistic.




Not suggested that it is going ballistic at this stage, 20% is far from that.   

More than 20% from this date last year in US$

April 05 to April 06, 60%      

Since the bull run in gold began from 2001 we have had significant rises from April to October in 2009, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001.

So merely on the seasonal *circumstance* there is a good chance of a good rise this time.

Lets keep a tab on this Whiskers, for you 20% or thereabouts down and I will go for the approximate 20% rise from April till October 2010.   

However on my view of the 10 year chart for gold I would not be surprised that a break to the upside could be much greater.


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Daytraders*

They have ceertainly been having a bit of a ponzi party over there at London it seems.  From the GATA website, article by  c powel 28th March inst.



> When we put up a link to last week's CFTC hearing webcast little did we know that it would end up being the veritable (physical) gold mine (no pun intended) of information about what really transpires in the commodities market. First, we obtained direct evidence from Andrew Maguire (who may or may not have been the target of an attempt at "bodily harm" as reported yesterday) of extensive manipulation in the silver market. Today, Adrian Douglas, director of GATA, adds to the mountain of evidence that the commodities market, and the CFTC, stand behind what is potentially the biggest market manipulation scheme in the history of capital markets (we are assuming for the time being that all allegations of the Fed manipulating the broader equity and credit markets are completely baseless). Using the testimony of a clueless Jeffrey Christian, formerly a staffer at the Commodities Research Group in the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department and now head and founder of the CPM Group, Douglas confirms that the "LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."




There is a lot of attention being given to gold trading of late and the above is just a part (US bullion banks will be ironed out soon too  IMHO)  that could put a rocket under good gold investments, and gold/silver.

To check out more go to the link:-  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fo...onfirms-lmba-otc-gold-market-paper-gold-ponzi


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Gold Daytraders*

Explode how many more time does it have to be rammed down the gold bugs dumb brains that futures contract traded NEVER = physical in ANY market.

Its just shows how dumb the bugs are and completely lacking in understanding of the market that they claim to be an expert on.


DUMB DUMB DUMB.

Further why don't you guys complain about the excessive ETF "manipulation" of the futures contracts upwards?? Oh thats right, its a long position not backed by physical, that doesn't count?

FFS!!!!!!!


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Daytraders*



Trembling Hand said:


> Explode
> 
> 
> DUMB DUMB DUMB.
> 
> Further why don't you guys complain about the excessive ETF "manipulation" of the futures contracts upwards?? Oh thats right, its a long position not backed by physical, that doesn't count?
> 
> FFS!!!!!!!




I have said this many times, shorting is immoral, sometimes I think t/h that you do not really think.

Fancy leasing/borrowing someones shares without thier knowledge.  Could not believe it when a broker once suggested this.  Of course it is about ballance and hedging.  If we could get rid of the ballance and the hedging and just go to straight marketing (buying selling) without the interfearance of banks and governments then the world would soon be a much healthier place financially.  Why, cause everyone would have to get a basic financial education to survive.   

Big sigh;        I used think there was such a thing as basic honesty within us all, but how wrong I was.

Back to trading,  like the look of TAM in view of the current situation developing


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Gold Daytraders*



explod said:


> I have said this many times, shorting is immoral, sometimes I think t/h that you do not really think.




Explod. I think, at least I try anyway. Rather than quoting financial armageddon losers by the name of " Tyler Durden " or if you cannot make a point from the conspiracy blog sphere just making up lies and rubbish like some of your recent contributions in the economy thread.



> Fancy leasing/borrowing someones shares without thier knowledge. Could not believe it when a broker once suggested this. Of course it is about ballance and hedging. If we could get rid of the balance and the hedging and just go to straight marketing (buying selling) without the interfearance of banks and governments then the world would soon be a much healthier place financially



 Yeah? what like house prices always rising?  figgin' clueless!!


----------



## explod

Okay, have had a bit of a think about T/H's venom,  some justified but some over the top, so have moved on.   The enquiry into the bullion markets are just too important to ignore, as an outcome that may identify and prove  manipulation on the scale being asserted will have very major impact on the direction of the gold price.

Hope this time I have the link correct but the following summarises well what I was getting a bit too overexcited about and brings developments up to date. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis/its-ponzimonium-in-the-go_b_519893.html 



For those wanting other related articles go to the Gata site at 

http://www.gata.org/node/8498


----------



## sinner

*Re: Gold Daytraders*



Trembling Hand said:


> Explode how many more time does it have to be rammed down the gold bugs dumb brains that futures contract traded NEVER = physical in ANY market.




Err ...so JP Morgan and Citi each had hired supertankers full of heating oil for what exactly?

NEVER in any market would a contango trade need to be played out with physical huh?



> Sliding shipping rates spurred several traders to enquire about the same transaction as JPMorgan, Varvaropoulos said.
> 
> Traders were already using smaller tankers to store record volumes of jet fuel and heating oil in Europe as on-shore tanks filled up, D/S Torm A/S, Europe’s biggest oil products shipping line, said April 3.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=auE79A8VeBis&pid=20601087



> I have said this many times, shorting is immoral, sometimes I think t/h that you do not really think.
> 
> Fancy leasing/borrowing someones shares without thier knowledge. Could not believe it when a broker once suggested this. Of course it is about ballance and hedging. If we could get rid of the ballance and the hedging and just go to straight marketing (buying selling) without the interfearance of banks and governments then the world would soon be a much healthier place financially. Why, cause everyone would have to get a basic financial education to survive.
> 
> Big sigh; I used think there was such a thing as basic honesty within us all, but how wrong I was.
> 
> Back to trading, like the look of TAM in view of the current situation developing




So um...how are you sure if you decide to buy TAM you won't be buying leased stock someone is selling short? Obviously buyers like you are the real problem here, if there was nobody to buy then shorters would have to go home! 

Buying Oz gold stocks right now is pretty much just a short AUD play isn't it?


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Daytraders*



sinner said:


> Err ...so JP Morgan and Citi each had hired supertankers full of heating oil for what exactly?
> 
> NEVER in any market would a contango trade need to be played out with physical huh?
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=auE79A8VeBis&pid=20601087
> 
> 
> 
> So um...how are you sure if you decide to buy TAM you won't be buying leased stock someone is selling short? Obviously buyers like you are the real problem here, if there was nobody to buy then shorters would have to go home!
> 
> Buying Oz gold stocks right now is pretty much just a short AUD play isn't it?




Was not aware that you could actually short small caps but certainly open to suggestion.


----------



## Edwood

still following the daily tune


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Edwood said:


> still following the daily tune




Whats the expectation? It will keep following the your channel? Do you have a longer term position in Gold?


----------



## Edwood

hi Sam - I don't have a long term position in gold - in general my positions are pretty short term whatever the instrument
'Near term' this is one possibility
'Longer term' the whole move off the highs still looks like a consolidation in an uptrend - i.e., continuation - and the inverse h&s suggests 1250 area - in my opinion, dyor etc


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Edwood said:


> hi Sam - I don't have a long term position in gold - in general my positions are pretty short term whatever the instrument
> 'Near term' this is one possibility
> 'Longer term' the whole move off the highs still looks like a consolidation in an uptrend - i.e., continuation - and the inverse h&s suggests 1250 area - in my opinion, dyor etc




Cheers for that  just interested in what your thoughts were based off that chart, as I don't really know much about the application of Andrews Pitchfork


----------



## Trend Hunter

According to my analysis Gold (GLD) is:
Monthly Chart: Bull confirmed
Weekly Chart : Neutral
Daily Chart : Bull Confirmed
Hourly Chart : Bull Confirmed
15 minute Chart : Bull Confirmed but resistance at 113

Overall: Waiting for a retest

Cade


----------



## Edwood

Trend Hunter said:


> 15 minute Chart : Bull Confirmed but resistance at 113




what sort of resistance at 113, given we're now at 1160+?

fwiw think we're around resistance and due a retrace, but keep an eye on the dx.

Shame XAU hasn't had the same returns as palladium since the lows.


----------



## explod

Could be time to dust the cover of this thread.   Gold put in a big uptick overnight and in my view looks set for a run towards US$1200 in the next week or so.  Trader Dan Norcini's brief makes some good points on gold's currency role as distinct from a commodity, the link  http://jsmineset.com/

and this para in particular:-



> I want to repeat for what seems like the umpteenth time – those Elliot Wavers who keep calling for gold’s demise are misguided because their view of the metal is too “Dollar-priced” centered. This is the fatal flaw in their “analysis” and their incessant bearish gold calls. They treat the metal as if it was a common commodity not understanding its role as a CURRENCY. Any analysis that does not grasp this simple fact is doomed to failure for we are not talking about soybeans here or cocoa but a metal that has had an historic role as a currency and a store of value for thousands of years. The failure to see the price of gold in various other currency terms leads to erroneous conclusions. Any market that is going on to make all new lifetime highs is not bearish. It really is that simple and arguments to the contrary are based more on hope and wishing than solid, objective analysis.


----------



## iced earth

GOLD-27 April 2010

Bullish Head&Shoulders with goal around $ 1230


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Could be time to dust the cover of this thread.   Gold put in a big uptick overnight and in my view looks set for a run towards US$1200 in the next week or so.  Trader Dan Norcini's brief makes some good points on gold's currency role as distinct from a commodity, the link  http://jsmineset.com/
> 
> and this para in particular:-




It could be time comrade's? The movement is there now for appreciation in the $AU as that nasty four letter word - DEBT - finally goes berko globally, and the brightest financial minds in the world stare blankly, like stunned deers in the headlights, when asked for the latest explanation on why it's all going pear shaped.

All the Oliver Twist (Please sir, can we have some more bond money?) governments around the world who are finding out that Keynes was wrong! Only it looks like their constituents will be the ones who end up in the poor house begging for food?

I expected the 'flight to quality' to the $USD would be on in earnest and the negative correlation with gold would drive it down a bit, but maybe we are just bypassing that stage and the real flight to quality gold is now starting en masse?


----------



## Edwood

need to be wary of the ending diagonal tho for the moment chaps..... don't want to load up too hard at this point imo


----------



## skyQuake

Edwood said:


> need to be wary of the ending diagonal tho for the moment chaps..... don't want to load up too hard at this point imo




Agree, fairly quick reversal there. Gold equities couldnt hold on earlier too


----------



## MRC & Co

Long gold/financials right now.


----------



## Whiskers

Interesting, Aus gold price increase starting to well exceed USD price. 1305AUD and 1182USD atm.


----------



## qldfrog

well the USD price was catching up after the carnage in Wall Street: above 1200USD at the moment!!


----------



## iced earth

*GOLD-7 May 2010*

_as predicted on 27 April( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=551437&postcount=7596 ) _ , Bullish Head&Shoulders with goal around $ 1230 is completing


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some interesting charts!

Gold up, USD up - which will blink first?


----------



## MRC & Co

Whiskers said:


> Interesting, Aus gold price increase starting to well exceed USD price. 1305AUD and 1182USD atm.




Obviously, with gold now a 'risk-off' trade again, and AUD a 'risk-on' they are negatively correlated.  Hence, the breakdown.


----------



## Whiskers

MRC & Co said:


> Obviously, with gold now a 'risk-off' trade again, and AUD a 'risk-on' they are negatively correlated.  Hence, the breakdown.




Yep, that's what I was alluding too... but it kicked in a tad faster than I was expecting.



qldfrog said:


> well the USD price was catching up after the carnage in Wall Street: above 1200USD at the moment!!




Not really, the AUD price still increased at a faster rate.



Uncle Festivus said:


> Some interesting charts!
> 
> Gold up, USD up - which will blink first?




I don't think there will be much blinking very soon.


----------



## MRC & Co

Whiskers said:


> Yep, that's what I was alluding too... but it kicked in a tad faster than I was expecting.




They had been negatively correlated for over 10 days before I posted my comment on the previous page......


----------



## GumbyLearner

Awesome news.

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Gold-buying-by-Hindus-may-fall/616347/

I'll wait for the price drop and buy more.


----------



## Whiskers

MRC & Co said:


> They had been negatively correlated for over 10 days before I posted my comment on the previous page......




Yeah, what I meant was... 

Yep, that's what I was alluding too... but it (the price action, especially the AUD) kicked in a tad faster than I was expecting.


----------



## Ageo

Just quietly has anyone checked the spreads on physical?

Hehe to say they are worried about volatility is an understatement.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ageo said:


> Just quietly has anyone checked the spreads on physical?
> 
> Hehe to say they are worried about volatility is an understatement.




Um, what would they be?? Backwardation yet??


----------



## Ageo

Uncle Festivus said:


> Um, what would they be?? Backwardation yet??




Some bullion houses were charging $50 (i.e gold price is 1350 and they are charging $1400). The buyback prices were even worse. And dont be fooled what some of them advertise on their website to what they quote you can be different.

Anywayz it seems mixed atm, the refiners think there is going to be a big move still to come but unsure which way. The greece debacle is pushing for a positive move thow.


----------



## explod

Gold for the first time in history has now consolidated at the high level of around the US$1.200 mark and is now set to go very much higher in all currencies.

This week could be it.

All of this is just my *very humble* opinion with no basis in the reality of mainstream (expansional) economics.   Money is trash.


----------



## Logique

My only stock holding atm is a mid-tier Australian gold explorer/producer. Technically I like the look of where the gold price is going, especially given sovereign risk in europe and world currencies volatility. 

Not too worried about the unusual situation of $USD co-incident strength - to me it just re-inforces the fact of uncertainty-currency risk and flight to safety -that will play into gold bugs hands, and for a little while to come.


----------



## iced earth

GOLD - 13 
as predicted before, gold hits the target of HEAD & SHOULDERS (around $12300)


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=551437&postcount=7596


----------



## Logique

I found this very bullish article, written in November 2009, by the Managing Editor of Money Morning, link is http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/19/gold-prices-8/



> *Why Gold Will Reach a Record $2,000 in 2010*....
> 'With the U.S. dollar in a freefall and global gold demand rising, analysts say the precious metal will likely continue its bullish trend through at least the first half of 2010. It could rise as high as $2,000 an ounce, which would represent a 73% gain from current record levels....
> 
> ...“You have to consider the amount of money sloshing around the world right now – China’s $2.2 trillion in reserves, India’s $285 billion in reserves, all of the money in central banks throughout the Middle East,” said Martin Hutchinson, a contributing editor for Money Morning and a veteran banker with more than two decades experience in the international marketplace. “*If all of the serious money charges into gold and gold really gets going, you’ll see a tremendous spike in prices*.”
> 
> Concludes Hutchinson: “I believe the price of gold will hit $2,000 an ounce next year [2010].”......
> 
> ...Timothy Green, the author of “The Ages of Gold,” described India’s purchase [of physical gold] to Bloomberg News as “the biggest single central-bank purchase that we know about for at least 30 years in such a short period.” “The only comparable event was the U.S.’s steady purchases in the 1930s and 1940s,” he said....
> 
> ...“Everyone who says that gold will hit $2,000 in five years is wrong,” said Money Morning’s Hutchinson. “It will be back down in 5 years. *If it’s going to $2,000 it wil get there next year* [ie in 2010]...”'


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> 'Longer term' the whole move off the highs still looks like a consolidation in an uptrend - i.e., continuation - and the inverse h&s suggests 1250 area - in my opinion, dyor etc




lol - "as predicted 9th April"

You're not coat-tailing me, are you iced-tea?


----------



## explod

iced earth said:


> GOLD - 13
> as predicted before, gold hits the target of HEAD & SHOULDERS (around $12300)
> 
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=551437&postcount=7596




So on your analysis iced earth, where to now ?

Looking strong tonight and in record territory at US$1238


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Daytraders*



Trembling Hand said:


> Explode how many more time does it have to be rammed down the gold bugs dumb brains that futures contract traded NEVER = physical in ANY market.
> 
> 
> 
> DUMB DUMB DUMB.
> 
> ?
> 
> FFS!!!!!!!




Glad not to know about that future stuff t/h, think the physical in the hand is going to win in the long term for the *dumb ones *though


----------



## Edwood

longer termer from me for you Explod

no numbers or letters tho sorry....


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> longer termer from me for you Explod
> 
> no numbers or letters tho sorry....




Well your chart looks very optomistic Edwood and hope it plays out.  My rough rule says that currencies are in trouble because they have to feed the outstreached hands of the sheeple.  So further dilution means less value in the paper and more paper to bu the gold.

So on my rough rule and your chart Edwood could we settle on a US$ gold price by the end of the year of say, 17 t0 18 hundred could be fair. 

Raining here again in Mt Martha as I write, damned global warming, making too much cloud = rain.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Au breaking out to new highs.


----------



## Edwood

turned o/n at 1248.13 - sincerest apologies I was out by 1.87 on the target


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Sorta makes it so easy to swap your "IOU nothings" for something tangible?



> The Emirates Palace hotel has set up a gold-dispensing machine, which monitors the daily gold price and offers small bars to its Abu Dhabi customers.
> 
> The machine is the first international foray for German entrepreneur Thomas Geissler's 'Gold to Go' brand.
> 
> Geissler, who started testing the cash-for-gold machines in Germany in 2009, says he chose Abu Dhabi due to the traditional and major role that gold plays in the region's business.
> 
> The ATM, unveiled on Wednesday, offers up to 10 grams or coins with customized designs, AP reported.


----------



## MRC & Co

Euro weakness = gold strength.  Thing to watch for a reverse of this correlation is any PIIGS restructuring or talk thereof.


----------



## Edwood

could see gold back under 1200 soon imo


----------



## hitmanlam

Momentum has certainly stalled for the time being.  Distribution top or consolidation on a continued uptrend?  Who knows.  The dilemma.


----------



## Ageo

You can assure there will be a strong correction in the near future which is always the case. 1300AU should be the base thow now.


----------



## MRC & Co

hitmanlam said:


> Momentum has certainly stalled for the time being.  Distribution top or consolidation on a continued uptrend?  Who knows.  The dilemma.




That is sure not a distribution top as far as technicals on the GC chart.


----------



## explod

It has been a good little uptrend since February and every week or two after an uptick we have a week to a few days of consolidation.  I have seen these episodes in the gold bull since 2003 many times.  It is when we have a very large and sudden jump up that it seems to blow off the top.  
this occurred back in November and another back in the middle of 08 and another distinct one in 06.   I do not think we are there yet and in a few days gold would in my view continue up another 30 or 40 US$'s.  We shall see.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Thats quite an uptrend there.  Higher highs at 1249.50 and counting.  No idea where this is going.


----------



## explod

> • Gold bullion or the equities? We feel investors should have the
> ability to participate in both markets. When gold is performing well,
> the gold equities offer leverage. Today while the gold price moved up by
> 2.4%, the gold equity index (HUI) appreciated by 6%. However, if gold
> is simply moving sideways, the gold equities can lag the metal.
> Additionally, if gold (or any commodity) is perceived to be spiking
> higher, it’s quite likely that the equities will lag the commodity price.
> With the 1979/80 spike to $800/oz being in excess of $2,000/oz in
> today’s dollars, we feel we have some time before this becomes an issue.




The above is from a JP Morgan newsletter, and so gold is/maybe heading higher soon, cause I think they's the boss.  However the real inflation adjusted price from the peak of 1980 is around US$5,000     for the full report see:-

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganGoldReport-05-11-2010.pdf

For GATA commentary and how I found above link see;-

http://www.gata.org/node/8652


----------



## Boyou

Thanks for the links ,explod.Good info.

Somewhat off topic ,but,they mention silver in the article so...what do they mean by "high beta"?  

"We continue to see silver as “high beta” gold. Silver itself was up
4.4%, and our favorite silver equity, Silver Wheaton, was 8.1% higher on
the day"

Cheers.


----------



## Ageo

Boyou said:


> Thanks for the links ,explod.Good info.
> 
> Somewhat off topic ,but,they mention silver in the article so...what do they mean by "high beta"?
> 
> "We continue to see silver as “high beta” gold. Silver itself was up
> 4.4%, and our favorite silver equity, Silver Wheaton, was 8.1% higher on
> the day"
> 
> Cheers.




Personally i think silver is actually better than gold for long term investment.

Its cheap to get into, you can buy large quantities and has the potential to double its value many times over unlike gold.

Remember in yrs to come silver will be fetching dollars per gram not cents so if your sitting on 100kgs (which is only 60k roughly now) it could be a very nice retirement package.


----------



## Boyou

Indeed ,Ageo..I hear you

  I have already started to accumulate silver..much more leverage there IMHO


----------



## Edwood

I have a spike down on my spreadbet charts to the 1180 area a couple of days back - am assuming this is not shown on 'proper' charts?  

nevertheless, price has a habit of testing such 'erroneous' spikes....


----------



## sinner

> Personally i think silver is actually better than gold for long term investment.




Gee only been pointing out gold is expensive and silver is long term cheap for months and months and months now on this thread.



Boyou said:


> Somewhat off topic ,but,they mention silver in the article so...what do they mean by "high beta"?
> 
> "We continue to see silver as “high beta” gold. Silver itself was up
> 4.4%, and our favorite silver equity, Silver Wheaton, was 8.1% higher on
> the day"
> 
> Cheers.




Beta beta beta beta. When you see the chart you will grasp the concept:





Thanks to Stockcharts and Bloomberg (respectively) for those charts.

From the second chart, it is obviously time for Aussies to start thinking in XAU/AUD and XAG/AUD terms rather than pricing in USD.

EDIT: Ooops. The second chart is silver and gold priced in AUD. Yellow is silver green is gold.


----------



## explod

> Gee only been pointing out gold is expensive and silver is long term cheap for months and months and months now on this thread.




Yep. and some have been pointing it out for years.

It only has to come back to its normal level of around 25 to 1 to make a killing, I think without checking it is in the regeon of 65 to 1 currently.

Perhaps we should be putting our efforts into the silver thread as it seems to lead gold just prior to large upticks.


----------



## Boyou

Thanks ,sinner

I get it now Beta is better.


----------



## sinner

Boyou said:


> Thanks ,sinner
> 
> I get it now Beta is better.




Beta beta beta. That's all I know really - but you can learn the rest from a real pro here

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1366

It might be a page or two in I think.


----------



## Boyou

The Chinese continue to believe in gold...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbUvvfJakfI


----------



## Whiskers

Boyou said:


> The Chinese continue to believe in gold...
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbUvvfJakfI




I heard a few weeks ago that India was probably going to substantially reduce it's gold demand for their gold buying (wedding) season if the price stayed high. 

A bit of a wind back now might be just the tonic to kick up their demand too, getting half way into their wedding season.


----------



## Boyou

While I feel sorry for the Indian brides at this time,I really think they have had too many years of (relatively) cheap gold.
Time for Gold to shine!

They can always buy silver..it's still way to cheap ,for now  

(Good to see a bit of back and forth on this thread..it's been  as quiet as a worked out gold mine)


----------



## skyQuake

Down tonight! Heavy selling in the gold miners too


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> I have a spike down on my spreadbet charts to the 1180 area a couple of days back - am assuming this is not shown on 'proper' charts?
> 
> nevertheless, price has a habit of testing such 'erroneous' spikes....




and testing it is...


----------



## Edwood

the spike looks dodgy - until you put it in context - sits perfectly in the up channel


----------



## Whiskers

Edwood said:


> the spike looks dodgy - until you put it in context - sits perfectly in the up channel




Yeah, I reckon too Edwood.

There is a bit of MACD divergence, but I think this uptrend still has a bit to go as my two favored counts suggests this is a minor iv (yellow) which may still go a tad lower before it's done and moves on to new highs.


----------



## MRC & Co

Massive unwind of global positioning last night (from AUD, EUR, GBP, Gold, S&P etc).

That's all the gold move was IMO.


----------



## explod

MRC & Co said:


> Massive unwind of global positioning last night (from AUD, EUR, GBP, Gold, S&P etc).
> 
> That's all the gold move was IMO.




And contracts up for rollover at this time each month, the following from Trader Dan today



> Based on the huge liquidation seen on the drop in yesterday’s open interest ( over 21,000) plus today’s exodus of weak-handed longs, the market has seen a rather sizeable drop in the overall long side exposure. Since we are now approaching the rollover period when funds will move out of June and into August and even December gold, we might have to wait another couple of weeks before we get a serious effort to the upside (that is assuming the status quo in Europe does not change – it could worsen). The condition of the world’s financial system is so tenuous that it is not beyond the possibility of gold completely putting back on in one day what it took off during a previous one.




http://www.jsmineset.com/

On the charts we have support in the US$1180 area and very solid down towards 1100   And it could shake off down to that level before the next larger move up.  The US dollar will be the key in the shorter term IMO and it is hitting an old area of risistance at the current level towards .88    We should soon see as it has retraced the last 12 hours.


----------



## Southern X

Seasonality suggests a bottoming in July followed by a run into January. That, though, is based on the past... This year, if there's a crash, the safe haven will once again be the USD -- which to me is counter-intuitive; however, 2008's DXY and GLD show this graphically. As does gold's rise subsequently, which seems intuitive.

The impact on equities seems to be in proportion to size, ie. the bigger you are the less you fall. The biggest though must always be on the prowl for ounces just to keep their at resource par; and they've had great free cash flows recently. This should bode well for the explorecos except for a predatory takeover bid from an unreasonably depressed share price.

Good Luck

S X


----------



## Ageo

Whiskers said:


> I heard a few weeks ago that India was probably going to substantially reduce it's gold demand for their gold buying (wedding) season if the price stayed high.
> 
> A bit of a wind back now might be just the tonic to kick up their demand too, getting half way into their wedding season.




If only the jewellery manufactures stopped ripping off their citizens thow....

95% of indian 22ct (91.66% gold) of jewellery i buy here is usually always 5%+under which means all those manufactures are making a killing when manufacturing tonnes of jewellery.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Southern X said:


> Seasonality suggests a bottoming in July followed by a run into January. That, though, is based on the past... This year, if there's a crash, the safe haven will once again be the USD -- which to me is counter-intuitive; however, 2008's DXY and GLD show this graphically. As does gold's rise subsequently, which seems intuitive.
> 
> The impact on equities seems to be in proportion to size, ie. the bigger you are the less you fall. The biggest though must always be on the prowl for ounces just to keep their at resource par; and they've had great free cash flows recently. This should bode well for the explorecos except for a predatory takeover bid from an unreasonably depressed share price.
> 
> Good Luck
> 
> S X




The irony, as always, is that Aussie gold equities are getting dropped with all the other crud with the focus on the US price of gold while the AU price is getting back to the previous highs, thanks to the $AU suddenly becoming a risk trade?


----------



## sinner

Southern X said:


> Seasonality suggests a bottoming in July followed by a run into January. That, though, is based on the past... This year, if there's a crash, the safe haven will once again be the USD -- which to me is counter-intuitive; however, 2008's DXY and GLD show this graphically. As does gold's rise subsequently, which seems intuitive.
> 
> The impact on equities seems to be in proportion to size, ie. the bigger you are the less you fall. The biggest though must always be on the prowl for ounces just to keep their at resource par; and they've had great free cash flows recently. This should bode well for the explorecos except for a predatory takeover bid from an unreasonably depressed share price.
> 
> Good Luck
> 
> S X




Great post - please come back.


----------



## Edwood

http://www.theundergroundinvestor.c...rcial-investment-firms-never-want-you-to-see/

sure you guys know this already...


----------



## Boyou

This is an astute and very ,very funny approach to gold's current status   

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lemerande/nov30a2009.html


----------



## explod

Billionaire Thomas Kaplan has put most of his money into gold and says that he does not think we are even in a bull market yet.

Time to sell maybe, you be the judge

http://www.gata.org/node/8666


----------



## Southern X

The USD keeps ascending on the back of the euro. Or, in other words, it's the least worst.The US S & P looks ripe for a head and shoulders tumble. If it tumbles more safe haven will find its way into the USD. None of this bodes well for gold.

Throw the RSPT on top of this and, if you still believe in a gold investment, an exploreco or producer outside of Australia seems a better bet. (I like W. Africa.)

Personally, I have no intention of stading in front of the southbound Euro Express, or northbound USD. My thought is to sell into a relief rally if such a rally comes about -- perhaps a right shoulder?

If the H & S in the S & P pattern breaks bullish I hold, if it starts to look real I'm playing defense.

SX


----------



## explod

Gold continues to gain strength in the face of growing uncertainties on the weaker fundamentals of soveriegn states around the globe.

To me gold or silver in physical form is not a trade but a longer term investment as part (30% for me) of a portfolio to afford some protection against the possible collapse of paper currencies.  With such collapse will follow equity markets also.  Some would say this is occuring as we speak.  

However it is gold and its continuing bull trend that is of interest to us here.  The following point and figure chart, with permission of the Privateer newsletter gives a good grasp of the gold bull:

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

Other than being a subscriber I have no other association with the Privateer.



> The Privateer   http:www.the-privateer.com capt@the-privateer.com      reproduced with permission


----------



## Whiskers

I'm still bullish in the short term explod, but going back to the end of 08, my controversial count at the time suggested a larger degree diag triangle forming based on an Expanded Flat as the first wave of the uptrend.

At the time I was thinking $1,200ish, but as time and the chart has progressed my target changed to $1,300ish max for this uptrend before a significant period of correction or sideways movement.

You might also notice on that P&F chart a H&S around the $1,000 mark, which also suggests a top about $1,300.


----------



## Eternal Prime

Beware, a rising triangle forming on the weekly and monthly charts. A break down, will signal a major correction.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Gold continues to gain strength in the face of growing uncertainties on the weaker fundamentals of soveriegn states around the globe.




I disagree. This latest upmove seems to me that gold is showing weakness - not strength. A gain in price does not equal a gain in strength. 1252 if not the high is very close to it.





> To me gold or silver in physical form is not a trade but a longer term investment as part (30% for me) of a portfolio to afford some protection against the possible collapse of paper currencies.  With such collapse will follow equity markets also.  Some would say this is occuring as we speak.




The good thing about a collapse in say, the price of AUD is that generally we will still make a profit buying gold priced in USD in this sort of environ.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> I disagree. This latest upmove seems to me that gold is showing weakness - not strength. A gain in price does not equal a gain in strength. 1252 if not the high is very close to it.
> View attachment 37483
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The good thing about a collapse in say, the price of AUD is that generally we will still make a profit buying gold priced in USD in this sort of environ.




You may well be correct sinner.  However due to the spread, physical gold is not an investment for short term trades in my view.   I therefore look at the larger picture and without too much detail it is clear enough in the attached five year kitko chart.

Charts are of course one thing only.  As the US continues to go down the path of printing new unbacked paper money for its survival I believe the current US$ rally mayl end soon with a rather large drop.  Although we still have our problems in Australia we are far ahead of the pack in resources and the ability to feed and clothe ourselves from within.  That is going to count a great deal in my view over the decade to come.

Gold is in record territory (and has been for a month or so) against the Euro,  the UK pound and some others.  The noise being made by the US press has so far succeeded as a facade to the same monetary problems of the "PIGGS" et al. but there are signs that this is wearing thin.  This is evident by some of the bigger financial speakers in the US now proclaiming that holding gold may be required to protect ones portfolio.  In the last month or so others and myself have mentioned these in posts on this and other threads.

Gold, as has been normal in the bull run, hits resistance for a week or two at particular points, and we would expect it here where it equals the old high.  Its larger declines have come when it has travelled to far to quick.  This is not the case of late, we have seen a steady climb with steps of consolidation since February this year.   I believe the current run up is far from exhausted.

However we will soon see as anything can and does happen.

cheers explod


----------



## explod

It would be much better to have attached the chart to the last post, so here goes


----------



## Southern X

Gold is going up.

It is now a trade/hedge against the Euro. 

What factors may bring gold down?
1) Coordinated central bank intervention to prop up the Euro, viz. SNB already (Swiss), ECB, Fed, BOJ...
2) the S&P 500 crashing requiring fund managers to sell their winners to meet margin calls, ETF GLD liquidation, rent money, etc.
3) Gold going up alone compared to the other commodities makes it a tall poppy ripe for harvesting.

It will make for an interesting June, July, leading up to gold's normal period of seasonal strength. 

Still buying Aussie stocks having mines/properties OUTSIDE of the dreaded RSPT Zone, ie. no mine in Australia.

SX


----------



## GumbyLearner

New record price in $US dollars

Touched $1260 in tonight's session.


----------



## So_Cynical

GumbyLearner said:


> New record price in $US dollars
> 
> Touched $1260 in tonight's session.




New Aussie dollar all time high this month as well...so POG continuing its run in both currency's.


----------



## explod

The sure and steady rise in steps from February continues.   With losing confidence in paper money growing by the day we can expect this rise to continue in the months ahead.   As I stated last week, a very sudden and large spike up is the danger to look for.   Trader Dan's take from overnight is well worth a look to those interested, part of it herewith:



> Gold shot up to a brand new record high in US Dollar terms in today’s session as it continues moving higher on its own merits. It did not especially matter what the Euro or the Dollar seemed to be doing today as both were rather quiet compared to recent volatility that has marked those pits; nevertheless, gold powered through the capping efforts of the banks at $1,250 on good volume forcing some of the fresh shorts encouraged by some CTA’s and other advisory newsletters out of the market. It would seem that gold is becoming a star in its own right as crude oil was tame today as was the bond market and the equity markets. In other words, the typical “outside influences” were missing that tend to impact gold leaving the larger macroeconomic forces the main factor in gold’s performance. Clearly investors who have deep misgivings about the current state of the global economy, particularly the West and its increasingly unsustainable burden of indebtedness, want to own the metal.




Taken from JSMinset today,  for full report of Dan"s see:

http://jsmineset.com/


----------



## Southern X

RSI has not confirmed this latest high, meaning a lack of momentum to push higher. But that seems to be the only fly in the ointment. 

I'm hoping that this momentum weakness coupled with the June contract rolling over later this month provides a dip so I can buy one or two ASX exploreco  equities.

SX


----------



## explod

Southern X said:


> RSI has not confirmed this latest high, meaning a lack of momentum to push higher. But that seems to be the only fly in the ointment.
> 
> I'm hoping that this momentum weakness coupled with the June contract rolling over later this month provides a dip so I can buy one or two ASX exploreco  equities.
> 
> SX




Gold is different and in this bull since 2000 such indicators are pretty useless.  The Yaun being floated will be the death knell to the US$, gold is going to fly from here.    *IMVHO*

The Aussie gold price may not rise a great deal through this dust up, but think about the wonderful overseas trip you can plan.


----------



## iced earth

_*GOLD 21 JUNE 2010:*_

   Gold is braking the green resistance line, so we could see a considerable rise in this precious metal price...


----------



## Edwood

hope you didn't get caught on that sell off Iced Earth
Should still head on higher imo


----------



## Southern X

The bears were in charge yesterday... could it have something to do with the contract expiring 25 June?

I think it does.

Now I'll be watching the mother of photo-ops being done in Toronto vis-a-vis the gold price, and boldly predict gold will move sideways and down until the June expiration. If this goes to plan (it never does) I'll be buying either, I hope, powerful exploreco or near-term producer.

SX


----------



## Trembling Hand

Southern X said:


> The bears were in charge yesterday... could it have something to do with the contract expiring 25 June?
> 
> I think it does.




Why? would love to here why you think so.


----------



## Sdajii

In the short term I'm not too sure, but perhaps slightly bullish on gold. Uncertainty leads to safe haven... etc etc, the familiar stuff.

In the long term I am extremely bearish on gold. One day people will realise that you can't eat gold, you can't drive a gold-powered vehicle, you can't build stuff with gold (okay, you can, but you'd be a moron). Gold does have some practical value (it's inert so you can make tiny stuff out of it, gold leaf, etc, but there are cheaper alternatives for most of its applications, and there's not a large quantity of physical gold in microscopic applications, which is its main practical use... microscopic amounts, often literally - nothing compared to the amount of gold we wear as trinkets) but since most gold is just sitting around stockpiled, it clearly doesn't have as much practical value as it does artificial value. When push comes to shove, people are going to want something useful rather than something of pretend value. We won't know the practical value of gold until gold is being used rather than put away in storage or worn as shiny trinkets on the fingers and necks of women.

Anyone familiar with diamonds? Very similar thing. Resource with a few practical applications (drill tips etc) but in massive abundance relative to practical requirements, so it only carries artificial value and is primarily stockpiled or used to make trinkets with similarly artificial value. It's strange that people only seem to realise that with diamonds (though strangely, people still pay for diamonds, regardless of their understanding of the ridiculous situation).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sdajii said:


> In the long term I am extremely bearish on gold. One day people will realise that you can't ...........................build stuff with gold
> 
> it clearly doesn't have as much practical value as it does artificial value




Huh?? Same as what else........ money??


----------



## Sdajii

Trembling Hand said:


> Huh?? Same as what else........ money??




Not exactly. Money is a token for wealth, not something which itself is seen as valuable; it is just a way to represent something. Gold was originally seen as valuable commodity, simply because back before we had the technology to smelt ores it was the only metal which existed in a metalic form, and before we had the technology to make stable alloys it was the only metal you could make something durable out of, but of course, that is now literally an ancient situation. As long as we have the concept of 'wealth' or 'ownership of resources' we will have some sort of currency, whether physical (bills and coins) or electronic currency, because we need some way to measure and represent it. Gold used to be used as that token because it was rare, but we have advanced beyond that now. I predict that at some stage in the future, gold will simply be seen as just another mineral, valued at its practical worth, along with all other metals. At some stage, traditional sentimentality will give way to reason. When times get tough people run to gold, but when times get really tough, and it will happen (maybe in a few years, maybe in 20-30) people are going to want things which are actually useful, like food, building materials, energy, etc. Money will still be used to measure resources, because we need some way to represent wealth/ownership, but gold will just be a cheap resource once people say "Hang on, it's just one of the types of metal which can be mined, and has no practical value".

Artificial value only lasts for so long. Comparing it to money is silly.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sdajii said:


> Artificial value only lasts for so long. Comparing it to money is silly.




I think you will have many a Gold bug arguing the exact thing as to why fiat money is clearly Artificial.

You have made the point that "it's just one of the types of metal which can be mined." Thats pretty funny considering the rarity compared to the cash govs print out willy nilly just to stay elected. Very funny and probably missing the whole point of PM.  

But never mind carry before I get confused with a gold bug.


----------



## Sdajii

Trembling Hand said:


> I think you will have many a Gold bug arguing the exact thing as to why fiat money is clearly Artificial.
> 
> You have made the point that "it's just one of the types of metal which can be mined." Thats pretty funny considering the rarity compared to the cash govs print out willy nilly just to stay elected. Very funny and probably missing the whole point of PM.
> 
> But never mind carry before I get confused with a gold bug.




Sure, the gold bugs will say that you can print money but not gold. If the whole world had decided at some point that gold was the universal currency (and stuck to it), maybe you'd have a point. However, it's only going to be a certain number of people who see gold with that traditional mentality. Gold isn't the most useful metal in the world, or the most rare. It's only tradition and lingering perception which gives gold any value.

Money is a completely different thing. We create it as a representation. Printing money devalues the existing value of money, and may eventually bring about the collapse of the concept of cash as well, although if that happens it will be a lot further down the track than the collapse of the value of gold, and will only happen if society suffers severe collapse due to resource shortage, or at some distant point in the future (hundreds of years) when things are completely different, and only things with tangible value are valued.

Think about it, gold isn't the only "precious" thing with absurdly inflated value. Diamonds are an obvious example, there is silver, etc etc. The worse things get, the less people are going to be overvaluing useless things, and the more we will be looking at market indicators such as wheat, oil, steel, copper, etc. Gold and diamonds will probably be the last to fall, but quite possibly when the global perception changes, it will happen rapidly. Depending on the global scenario, it's possible that money will fall not long after. Might sound crazy, but in a world of shrinking resources and growing population which is still increasing its usage of resources per individual, the crunch is going to come.

But, continue to think I'm crazy  You're actually probably old enough not to be looking at living long enough to see these events anyway.


----------



## skc

Sdajii said:


> But, continue to think I'm crazy  You're actually probably old enough not to be looking at living long enough to see these events anyway.




I don't think you are crazy... what you say makes sense. People once used beautiful seashells as currency and look where they are now. I am also definitely with you re diamonds - too bad my wife isn't on the same page 

Having said that.. your time table of 20-30 years is probably way off. The fact that the world is driven by the rich and powerful in various established institutions, which happens to be those holding the gold. So it is probably not in their interest for gold to lose its shine so soon.

For gold to have no value in 20-30 years, there has to be some kind of armageddon scenario, in which case paper money will probably go first.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mate i can no longer comment due to the danger of 5000 post against gold going to $3000 next month I may now be labeled a gold bug


----------



## Sdajii

Trembling Hand said:


> Mate i can no longer comment due to the danger of 5000 post against gold going to $3000 next month I may now be labeled a gold bug




I know your primary talent is being condescending rather than observant, so it doesn't surprise me that you directed that comment towards me despite me opening into this thread saying that in the _short term_ I was more bullish than bearish on gold.

skc: I think an armageddon situation of sorts may be a bit closer than most people realise. I would be surprised if it is more than 50 years away. I'm sure that before we actually hit the wall, people will realise what's coming, and that will change our perception of the current situation at the time. It would take a drastic event to make anything big happen within the next 10 years or so. Of course, future technology might save us, but it had better not take too long to arrive.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sdajii said:


> I know your primary talent is being condescending rather than observant, so it doesn't surprise me that you directed that comment towards me despite me opening into this thread saying that in the _short term_ I was more bullish than bearish on gold.




Just LOL!! Condescending? I mostly agree with you.


----------



## explod

The question of gold being useless is corrrect in my view too.   But as just said, so is paper money.

Gold has a sentiment attached to it going back 5000 years (sorry the number coincides with your coming big post TH), it is rare and getting harder to extract.

The big one though is that it forms only about .005% of investement interest around the globe, that's an old figure now though, probably up the scale a bit of late.   Anyway, if for example investment interest went up four times, that sum would still only equal about .02% interest.    Now if things continue to deteriorate sentimentally on finacial markets as they have of late, and gold in the face of it keeps being the only thing that is going up, then the increased interest on what is a very limited market could be pretty big.

So yes, in the bigger picture gold may indeed be pretty useless but we must remember that the sheep are blind and will follow the leaders over the cliff. 

We live in interesting times mon ami,  oh, and the big word to ponder in all this with bemusement is SENTIMENT


----------



## Southern X

Sdajii... gold, another mineral!? according to the WGC gold constitutes 0.005 ppm in the earth's crust. Then you meander along an absurd logic path that gold will in the future be just a shiny bit of fluff... Of course no one, besides you, can see the future; however, 5000 years of history, or all of human civilization, gold has been regarded as a store of wealth, across continents, across cultures, all independent of one and other.

That said, I trade gold like any other commodity. Though if gold goes to $5000 I think I'd consider trading my gold for bullets and cans of Campbell soup.

Regarding contract expiry, besides the bog of conspiracy theories, look at the future contract prices for backwardation/contango; check-out the COTs with emphasis on the Commercials (known as "Wolves") for their short positions. Then consider the financial impact on the wolves of a short squeeze and ALL they would throw at the gold price to prevent the squeeze occurring.

Gold, through its mining proxies on the TSX/ASX are my preferred way of play. Just a trade, sans irrationality; and in this regard, as posted before, I hope to see a dip in gold so as to "lode" (pun intended) on one or two stocks.

SX

PS Next contract expiries: 24 July; 27 August; 26 September; 27 October...


----------



## Sdajii

explod: I think you've summed it up fairly nicely there.

Southern X: You may well see gold hit $5,000 a long time before it's time to stock up on bullets and soup, I'm not sure. But I am pretty sure the time for bullets and soup will come, and most likely gold will surge before then, but possibly not, and even if it does it might come too late for bullets and soup to be your best option.

I must say, short term, I'm becoming a bit of a gold bug myself.


----------



## AUcomm

Hello all,
I am new to this forum today and still having a look around.  I am not sure I fit in here or not but here goes...

I am a gold commentator so obviously I am biased.  I have a colleague that has retired from the banking system (international) and he is extremely conservative.  He left the banking system 7 or 8 years back now as he did not understand their risk modeling.  

The Central Banking system still holds huge store and value of gold.  They have become a net buyer so they apparently agree with me - or should I say I agree with them.  Gold is a store of wealth not wealth itself.  It is an essential hedge against governmental money supply expansion and currency volatility to them.  Thus some consider it to be a form of money however I don't.  I just view it as an essential part of the system.

China and India think and agree, a deeply entrenched cultural view, that gold is wealth and desirable and guess what?  The cash flows are increasingly headed their way so they will continue to drive additional demand.  So supply and demand are driving gold from this aspect too, so cultural and banking.

The data I have access to about the back end of the banking system leads me to think that the "go to in times of trouble" effect will continue for the next several years no matter what the philosophical sentiment may be longer term. 

I could go on and on but instead await discussion as I respect the comments in this thread.  I might just add I have been publicly forecasting the price of gold successfully for 4 years and investing in it since 2001.  I am not a perma bull however.

I look forward to discussion and getting to know you all if you have interest in my comments.

Regards,
AUcomm
(gold commentator for short)


----------



## Southern X

AUcomm,

Regarding the, "go to..." aspect of your post I assume you mean safe haven. 

Using the recent past, 2008, as reference, the USD was the safe haven. This manifested itself even with US debt, a relatively stable Euro, and a momentary NEGATIVE treasury bill yield.

I believe that in the near to medium term this will happen again. The USD's deep liquidity and world reserve status, contrasted with the gold market's relatively shallow liquidity will drive the USD up, gold consequently down.

Looking ahead, one to three years, the US may decide to monetize their debt at the expense of destroying their currency. It is then that gold may spike before a re-alignment of a "new" currency imposes a value upon gold thereby bringing it to heel.

On the other hand, perhaps we're at the near bottom of the spike thanks to drunk, stupid, crackhead banksters on both sides of the Atlantic... and politicians, eg. California has debt cominig due 1 July; although I'd never bet against the Terminator.

SX


----------



## AUcomm

Hello Southern X,
You are obviously an experienced trader with significant knowledge of the gold market.

An interesting note; I had a former bank FX and interest rate trader (Bank of America and others) writing a newsletter for me a couple of years ago.  The manipulation was visible and this is how it was done...

They would get a call at the gold desk offering a tonne or more at a $20 per oz discount to market (this is several years back so quite large by %) and they would all jump on the phones and place the Au at a $5 premium to high net worth clients.  These clients would then immediately dump the Au on market at a $10 discount to market and reducing if necessary until the Au had been placed for a $5 per oz gain.  Thus the price dipped.

The wolf pack you refer to have considerable stores of Au and will defend but more at options and futures expiry dates or just before to take profits on contracts they write that consequently expire out of the money.  This is not a conspiracy theory and I never go there publicly - even though I post on GATA on occasion.  I told Bill Murphy about this one time a couple of years back.  Anybody who doubts me look at Goldman Sachs performance and internal emails that were revealed recently.

FYI - I think there is a Comex expiry date coming up for futures on the 28th June was looking at that today.  

As an additional note of interest - the European banks have to be down graded shortly as I understand it ...and their cost of capital increases again.  The Greek debt they carry is currently propped up at par value due to ECB purchases but that cannot continue.  When this music stops they will have to cover the total value at 100% in their reserves as it will become a 100% risk weighted asset instead of a 0% risk weighted asset.  Whoops!

My partner just sold out of a management company for a fund and I cannot say too much except to say a certain European banks (purchaser) cost of capital was not viable.  The new normal as Pimco put it will be rough with the transition period punctuated by upheaval and rising gold prices.

When do you think the gold stocks will play catch up here in Aust?  I am interested in your views if you have interest in this subject.

Regards,
AUcomm


----------



## AUcomm

Hello Southern X,
Yes safe haven indeed.
Sorry last post done before I saw your answer...
Got caught on phone then by IT consultant as well so possibly this one too LOL...

USD comment - correct still a safe haven and I am in there too are present as part of my current strategy - since 92c+ AUD.  This worked and is against my beliefs but there you go the USD is a safe haven go figure!

LOL your comments on banksters and pollies.

The problems in Euro may remain the flavour of this year and create additional Au investment demand there - is much stronger so we could see a rising Au price and rising USD again at the same time.  We have to wait and see but this is what am working on at present.

Regards,
AUcomm


----------



## Southern X

First, from a technical view I don't see a topping formation in gold, but remain cautiously bullish.

Second, it's been my experience that the equities lead the commodity, then magnify any move in the commodity, eg. compare BUGS with GLD.

Third, there's only one(?) tier one gold producer on the ASX, NCM. Nevertheless, I play in the cashed-up: a) exploreco, and; b) near-term producers with exploration upside space. Though this is a news driven area it's not immune to a major trend change viz. H2 2008, and will get hit harder/faster than a tier one or two play.

Therefore, in my little ASX gold universe the SP has both outperformed and underperformed the gold price. From this perspective I key in on the A$, political jurisdiction -- imagine the impact of the RSPT vis-a-vis sovereignty risk! deposit, grade, cost, and luck.

In other words, sell the losers, keep the winners, take profit, have stops, and enjoy Germany, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal.

SX


----------



## refined silver

AUcomm said:


> When do you think the gold stocks will play catch up here in Aust?  I am interested in your views if you have interest in this subject. Regards, AUcomm




Generally Au metal leads Au stocks despite the prevailing consensus. 

Although for shorter legs in this current bull market the stocks did lead.


----------



## electronicmaster

A quote from this link http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2010/06/as-long-as-gold-price-remains-above.html

_*Options expiry this Thursday, here are the strike prices where options are clustered: 

Silver

     1900c strike, 2,000 each

     1850c  725 each

     1800c 1,400 each 

Gold:

     $1,250 strike, 8,188 ea.

     $1,230, 1,230 ea

     $1,220, 4,000 ea.

     $1,210,  2,500 ea.

     $1,200,  8,700 ea.

    Looking at that, expect to see efforts (1) to keep gold from topping $1,250, & (2) to drive gold below $1,220 and $1,200, if even only to $1,198 on Thursday's close.

     In silver, expect a fight to keep silver away from 1900c, and to drive it down below 1850.

     Nothing says that the manipulators will win, only that they will surely try.*_


----------



## AUcomm

Hello refined silver thank you for your excellent response.

Great long term chart and insight there on metal v stocks leading both historic and recent performance.  It is interesting to note recent history and the break up of the sub sectors of the Aust gold sector.

Sept 05 saw gold in USD break out and run hard.  The larger stocks however started their run from as early as March and by July they were all running except that the juniors were weaker by comparison.

August 07 saw gold break again and run circa 43% in USD to March 08.  However AUD gold was more muted breaking out 2 months later and only rising 22% higher then the previous high in March 08.

Many gold stocks struggled to make new highs at this time here in Aust disappointing many investors.  The XGD topped three times, Nov 07, Jan 08 and Mar 08 - all at the same level even though gold made new highs.

The XGD was heavily weighted by NCM and LGL at the time (now combined) so I did some further research and realised that the larger producers without these leaders actually made significantly lower tops through those 3 peaks in the XGD.  

The smaller stocks ran hard and topped early in late 2007.  All of them died a horrible death in 2008 falling between 75% and 80% on average.  Only NCM managed a more moderate fall of 60%!   

By October and November 2008 I was calling the bottom of the gold stocks publicly and by early 2009 the greatest distortion in history was upon is with AUD gold at $1500 and the stocks at record lows for this bull to date.  Adam Hamilton called it a stock panic and this is perfectly correct - we will not ever see this again.

My greatest interest is the continued recovery from that time - some stocks have already made new highs but not many, KCN and OGC are great examples.  The vast majority lag behind despite improving operational performance and fundamentals.  It has been a matter of picking the most promising operators so not an easy task for the inexperienced - this has put a lot of people off I am sure.

I agree with your longer term analysis RF - this time the metal has paved the way and profits will start to dictate SP performance of a wider range of stocks in H2 2010.  We have to wait and see but this is my thesis at this stage.

Cheers,
AUcomm


----------



## Edwood

electronicmaster said:


> _*Options expiry this Thursday, here are the strike prices where options are clustered:
> Gold:
> $1,250 strike, 8,188 ea.
> $1,230, 1,230 ea
> $1,220, 4,000 ea.
> $1,210,  2,500 ea.
> $1,200,  8,700 ea.
> *_




suggests max pain around 1230 then no?


----------



## AUcomm

Hello SX,

Thank you for sharing your view on that - RSPT might be dead as an early matter of business for our new PM LOL.

Lets hope so.  This could help my thesis to eventuate (as above) but my philosophy is to let the market be right and do my best to follow it.  Of course you have to have a solid theory and feed as much real data into the model as you can however things change quickly at times in these troubled volatile markets.  We have to stay on top of it to survive 

I try to cover the whole sector so that I can attempt to spot the next winner.  This is virtually a full time task.  Usually fundamentals tell me who the losers are and this assists me to avoid those - but not always such is the nature of investing in such a tough sector.  You are right though - it is mainly about deposit, grade (and I would add prospectivity), cost and luck certainly helps when fat tail events or special finds come out of the blue.

We will soon see if we get a back flip on the RSPT or RUST as I have coined it.  Richardson gave that away earlier in the week - the back end power players in the factions don't want it and were prepared to take down KRudd to distance them from the debacle.

My 2c anyway - not trying to be political - I leave that for other commentators to worry about.

Regards,
AUcomm


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> suggests max pain around 1230 then no?




doh ...thinking about it some more, and answering my own question, the answer is 'no'


----------



## Southern X

A look at the calendar gives a possible idea of gold's direction. Options are expiring this week, 25 June (COMEX); then 4 July for the Yanks. Therefore, volumes should be very thin through the first week of July. This should exagerate any up/down gold moves.

SX


----------



## Southern X

http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/newsletters-gold-stocks-win-out-over-bullion/42259

Didn't paste. A good article comparing return on gold bullion v gold stocks. One note about Oz gold equities, one must factor in the strong AUD.

SX


----------



## Agentm

1600

2300 tops


----------



## Buckfont

Agentm said:


> 1600
> 
> 2300 tops




Thanks Agentm. A bit of a foundation to your forecasts would be nice.


----------



## Southern X

"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


I'm strategizing: Thin Volume + Crowded Trade + (Au x (Present weak seasonalty/Late July seasonal strength begins)) = BUY on dips, near support, ie. $1224 and $1230, or where you dare.

It's the crowded trade, ie. too much bullishness v fear, that I'm trying to reconcile... So, bought an Aussie near-term Au producer yesterday on the news of the Gillard coup, brought to you by Rio/BHP/FMG/et al; and am holding the rest.

SX


----------



## Buckfont

Southern X said:


> "You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold."
> 
> George Bernard Shaw
> 
> 
> I'm strategizing: Thin Volume + Crowded Trade + (Au x (Present weak seasonalty/Late July seasonal strength begins)) = BUY on dips, near support, ie. $1224 and $1230, or where you dare.
> 
> It's the crowded trade, ie. too much bullishness v fear, that I'm trying to reconcile... So, bought an Aussie near-term Au producer yesterday on the news of the Gillard coup, brought to you by Rio/BHP/FMG/et al; and am holding the rest.
> 
> SX




SX, are you going to let us in on your secret buy? We may all benefit. I`m curious now.


----------



## Southern X

This thread's clean of pumpers and bashers, just the direction and velocity of gold. And I'm not going to spoil that with "camouflaged pumps."

Sorry to tease, just used it as an illustration of my strategy; in this case, as posted before, the four criteria here were: sovereignty risk being de-risked; near-term producer; that's cashed up, and; the direction of the commodity.

SX

PS It was down over 3% today, doncha jus hate that!


----------



## refined silver

AUcomm said:


> I agree with your longer term analysis RF - this time the metal has paved the way and profits will start to dictate SP performance of a wider range of stocks in H2 2010.  We have to wait and see but this is my thesis at this stage.
> 
> Cheers,
> AUcomm




Thanks. Sorry, I've become a bit of an irregular poster.

If you have a good look at that chart you'll see the gold shares are looking to break out of a 30 year consolidation pattern. Gold already has, Au shares haven't yet. When it does and it could come soon, thats a serious move!


----------



## Southern X

The USD looks toppy, with maybe another bounce up before going down. 

The S&P 500 appears to be making the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.

The COTs are as bearish as they were in December, but since they're always bearish it's the degree that matters.

And the HUI, on a three year looks like a double top.

Gold is up incrementally.

I see a time to sell -- ?soon? -- and a time to BUY BIG -- after a proven bottom, here I'll let the first 15% or so go for confirmation. So I'm still cautiously bullish.

Good Luck

SX


----------



## sinner

Southern X said:


> This thread's clean of pumpers and bashers, just the direction and velocity of gold. And I'm not going to spoil that with "camouflaged pumps."
> 
> Sorry to tease, just used it as an illustration of my strategy; in this case, as posted before, the four criteria here were: sovereignty risk being de-risked; near-term producer; that's cashed up, and; the direction of the commodity.
> 
> SX
> 
> PS It was down over 3% today, doncha jus hate that!




Please just name the stock and your entry point, it isn't an issue of a pump it's an issue that you keep talking about something without specifying what it is.  That has a far more derailing effect on this thread than if you were to keep it about "just the direction and velocity of gold" which you haven't anyway. If you don't want to talk about the stock that's fine, but please actually stop talking about the stock!

Some weekly gold ratio charts below...

Gold:Oil
Gold:Silver
Gold:US Treasury Bonds
DOW:Gold
FTSE:Gold
SSEC:Gold


----------



## sinner

Last one (5 file upload limit).

The main thing to note with these ratios is that most contracts priced in gold terms have largely remained rangebound during the so called reflation rally.

Except, in two cases. 

1. US 30Y Treasury Bonds
2. Shanghai Stock Exchange 

In both cases gold has made a new high against the respective ratio asset class.

Gold making new highs when priced in terms of the Chinese stockmarket (you would think it would be in terms of the DAX or FTSE? but obviously not!) or in terms of long dated US debt. I will leave it to the reader to infer from that what they will.


----------



## Southern X

Point taken sinner.

The one I clumsily referred to was bought in great part because of last week's Gillard putsch where I'm betting on a NEW! User Friendly! RSPT, thereby derisking Australia's sovereign investment profile: Integra Mining, IGR.

After a beating today I'm thinking a bounce next week, post-July 5, when a bit more liquidity comes into the market.

Here, I'm torn. History shows we're moving into a period of strength for gold beginning in late July, but there are too many buts for me to rest easy. These primarily include: gold's lone rise amongst commodities, and; the S&P looking very shaky and starting a flight to safe havens, ie. USD/US treasuries.

Currently, I'm looking for strength, eg. the upward climb of the S&P's right shoulder -- no guarantee this pattern will form -- to sell into.

SX

PS Apologies for any misunderstandings, and any thoughts on IGR, or other juniors, welcome by me.
PPS Germany beats Argentina (though this would be a bet motivated by my heart!).


----------



## Southern X

Seems that right shoulder on the S&P has been tapped.

SX


----------



## Buckfont

Southern X said:


> Point taken sinner.
> 
> The one I clumsily referred to was bought in great part because of last week's Gillard putsch where I'm betting on a NEW! User Friendly! RSPT, thereby derisking Australia's sovereign investment profile: Integra Mining, IGR.
> 
> After a beating today I'm thinking a bounce next week, post-July 5, when a bit more liquidity comes into the market.
> 
> Here, I'm torn. History shows we're moving into a period of strength for gold beginning in late July, but there are too many buts for me to rest easy. These primarily include: gold's lone rise amongst commodities, and; the S&P looking very shaky and starting a flight to safe havens, ie. USD/US treasuries.
> 
> Currently, I'm looking for strength, eg. the upward climb of the S&P's right shoulder -- no guarantee this pattern will form -- to sell into.
> 
> SX
> 
> PS Apologies for any misunderstandings, and any thoughts on IGR, or other juniors, welcome by me.
> PPS Germany beats Argentina (though this would be a bet motivated by my heart!).




See stock comp. I`m a simple man. AU AU AU !!! Shades of Norman May in his heyday. Look forward to that bounce you mentioned next wk.


----------



## Slipperz

Buckfont said:


> See stock comp. I`m a simple man. AU AU AU !!! Shades of Norman May in his heyday. Look forward to that bounce you mentioned next wk.





The half yearly gold result came in at 12.5%



http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=107226&sn=Detail&pid=92730


----------



## electronicmaster

Slipperz said:


> The half yearly gold result came in at 12.5%
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=107226&sn=Detail&pid=92730




Gold increased (in the last six months):- 

Over 16% for AUD
Over 24% for the EUR
Over 29% for the USD
Over 40% for the GBP



Silver is up over 10% for the last six months if priced in AUD


----------



## electronicmaster

Southern X said:


> The USD looks toppy, with maybe another bounce up before going down.
> 
> The S&P 500 appears to be making the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.
> 
> The COTs are as bearish as they were in December, but since they're always bearish it's the degree that matters.
> 
> And the HUI, on a three year looks like a double top.
> 
> Gold is up incrementally.
> 
> I see a time to sell -- ?soon? -- and a time to BUY BIG -- after a proven bottom, here I'll let the first 15% or so go for confirmation. So I'm still cautiously bullish.
> 
> Good Luck
> 
> SX




It won't take to long before people stop selling Gold or Silver.  I suspect all currencies will be too worthless to consider having in the next year or two.


----------



## electronicmaster

electronicmaster said:


> Gold increased (in the last six months):-
> 
> Over 16% for AUD
> Over 24% for the EUR
> Over 29% for the USD
> Over 40% for the GBP
> 
> 
> 
> Silver is up over 10% for the last six months if priced in AUD




nup sorry, that was incorrect.  the EUR, USD and GBP results I wrote was for 12 months.  

22% for AUD (for gold) in the last 12 months.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Gold *May* Resume Advance on Concern Global Economic Recovery Is in Jeopardy
By Nicholas Larkin - Jul 5, 2010

Gold may advance after some investors deemed two weeks of declines to be excessive and as renewed concern that the global economy is faltering helps boost demand for the metal as a means of protecting wealth.

Gold last week dropped the most since the week ended May 21 after trading on June 28 within 0.2 percent of a record. Growth in Europe’s services and manufacturing industries slowed for a second month in June, a report showed today. UBS AG analyst Edel Tully said the bank’s physical bullion sales to India on July 2 were the most since early January.

“We have seen a nice correction and people think that the market has bottomed out,” said Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva. “Bargain-hunters are in the market. The situation in Europe and the U.S. continues to be jittery.” 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-global-economic-recovery-is-in-jeopardy.html


----------



## skcots

Gold and Silver not looking good at the moment at $1186 and $17.55.
Any thoughts?


----------



## electronicmaster

skcots said:


> Gold and Silver not looking good at the moment at $1186 and $17.55.
> Any thoughts?




Yes.  Get ready to buy some more, or buy the Gold/Silver mines at a cheaper price 

two or three things may be happening:-

1.
People might be getting out of derivatives because they wanted physical delivery but had to settle in cash.   Or the governments or Central Banks are selling out to keep the markets going sideways. 

2.
A lot of experts have been expecting a massive sell off due to possible COMEX, ETF, SLV, GLD defaults. Perhaps this is one of them moments.  

3.
The rest could just be speculators/traders panic selling as result.   Could this mean the markets are in trouble?


I suspect you won't find it easy to buy cheap Silver or gold at the new lows.  Most Mints or brokers will hold back supply or keep the Physical prices high I reckon.   

They did that in October 2008

In other news:-


----------



## electronicmaster

electronicmaster said:


> 1.
> People might be getting out of derivatives because they wanted physical delivery but had to settle in cash.   Or the governments or Central Banks are selling out to keep the markets going sideways.




imf-engaged-in-gold-swaps-to-about-380



European banks use gold reserves to raise cash


And the DJ is up over 10000 points all the sudden?


----------



## Ageo

Yep snap up everything


----------



## explod

Paying $19 a gramm for 24 carat down at our local shopping centre today.  Now that is thievery and these stalls are getting about everywhere.

Would one have to be licenced Ageo to advertise in local rag for 1966 Silver coins at say half price?


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> Paying $19 a gramm for 24 carat down at our local shopping centre today.  Now that is thievery and these stalls are getting about everywhere.
> 
> Would one have to be licenced Ageo to advertise in local rag for 1966 Silver coins at say half price?




Explod yes The Gold Buyers stores are theives alright but stupid people that sell are asking for it.

Technically if you buy and sell more than 6 items a yr (NSW) then its classed as trading so you would need a license. But Ebay is your friend here, just list them and you will be surprised how much people pay for them.


----------



## explod

A solid recovery for gold overnight.  US$1200 per ounce is becoming a strong support area now.  Gold has generally travelled inversely to the gold price but there have been some tandem moves over the last 12 months.   The $UD index has moved down more that 5% over the last month so feel that from the current consolidation point, gold should soon move and consolidate above $US1300    Of course the little Aussie has moved up from around .82 to above .87 over the last 2 weeks which will continue to hold our gold price, but does not drop it greatly.  So the value overall is still greater for us, reading Chuck Butler (Everbank), currency traders are accumulating Aussie dollars.   WE are still the lucky country. 

Gold is being used as a curency again by central banks.  Who says gold is an ancient relic.   Faith in ability/or not, to repay means gold is very much on the agenda.  The following article I picked up via the Gata wesite on this subject:-

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1278723600.php


----------



## Southern X

I'm patiently awaiting gold's seasonality, ie. weakness in July followed by strength through August to October-Novenber. It's happened most years, with the glaring exception of 2008. A 2008 repeat is possible though, with the USD restaking its claim as safe haven du jour, thereby making me all the more cautious.

It seems on the physical side Indians are picking everything up under $1200, then waiting for a drop, repeat. Interesting news from the BIS, where banks are swapping gold for cash to settle. The points here being: that they're not selling, therefore they believe the price is going up, and; that lo and behold gold is on the same plane as currency. The tonnage is unsettling, with the thinking (rumour-mongering) being that it's not a bank but an Euro-nation -- remember the CBGA.

Clearly seasonality is no guarantee, and no one, except a liar, can pick the bottom or top. It looks like support is around $1185, while resistance is around $1225. From this dollar value coupled with this being mid-July, I've got powder dry to buy equities on a decent dip; and hope I'm neither whip-sawed or jumping into a sucker's rally.

Disclosure: Holding: PRU, IGR, looking hard at, and dd'ing: AZM(?), GRY(?), CAH(?), AMX(?)... Good luck and happy hunting!

SX


----------



## explod

Southern X said:


> Clearly seasonality is no guarantee, and no one, except a liar, can pick the bottom or top. It looks like support is around $1185, while resistance is around $1225. From this dollar value coupled with this being mid-July, I've got powder dry to buy equities on a decent dip; and hope I'm neither whip-sawed or jumping into a sucker's rally.
> 
> Disclosure: Holding: PRU, IGR, looking hard at, and dd'ing: AZM(?), GRY(?), CAH(?), AMX(?)... Good luck and happy hunting!
> 
> SX




When you say equities, are they gold related?

Gold has been on a very good uptrend of consistent steps over the last 12 months.  Overall it is a very finite part of the financial market but is gaining increased support due to fear on currencies and stocks across the board.  If one is following the world financial news this state of affairs is only going to continue in my view.

India has been a long time traditional accumulator of gold and this continues.  However, increasingly their percentage of purchases overall have been decreasing to the point where they now account for no more than 15% of the world gold market.   Many central banks are now buying, South East Asia, Europe and though they try not to assert it, (to protect the value of US treasuries, of which they hold a huge number) China.

Seasonality I feel is out the window.   Gold as it has risen steadily over the last 12 months (see the chart) will in my view continue to do so assertively.


----------



## Southern X

Seasonality is just one forward looking sign post.

With regard to the BIS I continue to puzzle the implications of Au being "legitimately" accepted as a currency substitute. This fact would muddy the prospects of the USD being the de facto safe haven for billions of euros, etc.

Though I still believe the USD will be the, "go to," liquidity choice some money will now seek Au. Even a tiny inflow will shoot the price/oz UP, creating a spike/bubble (I don't believe we're yet in a bubble scenario).

Still, the USD will (may?) survive this imminent crash, Au may well thrive, but if Au crashes as well, eg. late 2008, I'll sell at least 50% of my holdings with the full intention of buying all of it back and then some! Simply, I believe, a financial holocaust is nigh, a prologue soon followed by the whole Wagnerian opera; wherin the USD will collapse if it hadn't already.

This is frightening in the extreme, so get your ducks in a row, cans of tuna stocked, and God forbid, bullets.

SX

The aforementioned equities are all ASX gold. I omitted ALK:ASX, because I think of it as a REE stock (HREE heavy (pun intended)), but it has a pile of growing gold too!


----------



## sinner

Friday was an extremely interesting day for those of us intently watching the gold silver ratio.

The price gapped up big and went down all day. A smaller replay of the 1st July and 4th Feb. Horizontal lines have been drawn for S/R and the weirdness in RSI has also been highlighted.

The historical ratio for gold:silver was always 16 silvers buys 1 gold (this was the Queens standard and also the standard in many European banking countries). In Asia and especially China, silver was even more precious, with only 5-6 silvers required to buy 1 gold.


----------



## skcots

sinner said:


> The historical ratio for gold:silver was always 16 silvers buys 1 gold (this was the Queens standard and also the standard in many European banking countries). In Asia and especially China, silver was even more precious, with only 5-6 silvers required to buy 1 gold.




Speaking of gold to silver ratios. I am quite interested in Islamic law and although I am pretty sure there is no set ratio for gold to silver I found it interesting that the mandatory poor tax (which can not be changed) on silver and gold works out be 7:1. e.g. the poor own a portion (2.5%) of your:
gold (held for a lunar year) if it exceeds 87.48 gram (1)
silver (held for a lunar year) if it exceeds 612.36 gram (7)​


----------



## sinner

skcots said:


> Speaking of gold to silver ratios. I am quite interested in Islamic law and although I am pretty sure there is no set ratio for gold to silver I found it interesting that the mandatory poor tax (which can not be changed) on silver and gold works out be 7:1. e.g. the poor own a portion (2.5%) of your:
> gold (held for a lunar year) if it exceeds 87.48 gram (1)
> silver (held for a lunar year) if it exceeds 612.36 gram (7)​




Great find skcots! Got a link or reference for those of us who are curious (Quranic notation is fine I have one handy)?


----------



## skcots

sinner said:


> Great find skcots! Got a link or reference for those of us who are curious (Quranic notation is fine I have one handy)?




Hi Sinner,

In a nutshell, laws are usually taken from the works of the early scholars as self interpenetration of the texts can lead to the crazy fatwa we unfortunately see today. If I come across the evidences I will post them.

There are four valid schools of law in Sunni Islam. The figures I quoted are from the largest school. Link: http://qa.sunnipath.com/issue_view.asp?HD=1&ID=1531&CATE=5

Interestingly, I had a look in my Shafii text (another of the schools) and found that the weights differed but the ratio was still the same. [see below]

The difference is not surprising as the two schools flourished in different parts of the world (Baghdad vs Makkah), in different generations and the rulers were permitted a little bit of leeway when producing the dinars.

One of the Shafi'i law texts (Reliance of the Traveller) states:

h4.2 The zakat-payable minimum for gold is 84.7 grams, on which 2.1175 grams (2.5 percent) is due.
The zakat-payable minimum for silver is 592-9 grams, on which 1408225 grams (2.5 percent) is due.
There is no zakat on less that this.
(N: One must pay zakat (n: 2.5 percent) on all money that has been saved for a year if it equals at
least the market value of 592.9 grams of silver (n:that is current during the year). While there is a
considerable difference between the value of the gold zakat minimum and the silver zakat minimum, the
minimum for monetary currency should correspond to that of silver, since it is better for the poor.)​
Theres is info on the Dinar here if you are interested: http://www.islamicmint.com/islamicdinar/index.html

A place in Dubai sells them but they know how to charge for shipping.


----------



## sinner

skcots said:


> Theres is info on the Dinar here if you are interested: http://www.islamicmint.com/islamicdinar/index.html
> 
> A place in Dubai sells them but they know how to charge for shipping.




A very interesting read hehehe I loved this line:

"A chicken at the time of the Prophet, salla'llahu alaihi wa sallam, cost one dirham; today, 1,400 years later, a chicken costs approximately one dirham.

In 1,400 years inflation is zero."


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> I disagree. This latest upmove seems to me that gold is showing weakness - not strength. A gain in price does not equal a gain in strength. 1252 if not the high is very close to it.




Well, it has been a fun ride down on gold shorts since $1250.  I am booking some shorts here during Tokyo at $1181 - just under $70 per ounce profit - the risk reward working out roughly as 1:2.4. 

The red line shows support I am interested in. I exit my gold shorts here because really, I don't like being short gold. I would prefer to take a short position on silver if we go below support on the weekly, as there is some fundamental aspect of that trade - silver still being a strongly industrial commodity.




On that day explod claimed that gold price was showing "strength" as it moved into 1250. He also admonished me for using gold as "short term trading" - I guess a >6% decline since the 9th of June doesn't really fit into the thread title "gold price - where is it heading"...


----------



## Southern X

Gold breaking solid support at $1185, making that now resistance; with support in the mid-low $1170s makes for either bargain hunting or attempts at catching a falling knife.

I think I'll wait until the 27 July options expiry, as they and low liquidity may be contributing to this fall. Therefore, plenty of powder dry -- sold PRU this morning -- to pick up an equity or two, or put it in the bank, or move to dividend/utilities/green/more REEs???

SX

PS Anyone know the the price of that golden egg laying goose?


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> On that day explod claimed that gold price was showing "strength" as it moved into 1250. He also admonished me for using gold as "short term trading" - I guess a >6% decline since the 9th of June doesn't really fit into the thread title "gold price - where is it heading"...




Sorry for the admonishment Sinner; and very well done on your trading.  For the experienced, no problems.  However for the unwary the gold and silver sector in the short term is a risky business IMHO.  Many of the moves are often counter to fundamentals and chart programms, the following is worth a read on just that subject:

Via the GATA web page    http://www.caseyresearch.com/articl...ative-easing'-on-a-massive-scale:-marc-faber/


----------



## explod

Southern X said:


> -- sold PRU this morning -- to pick up an equity or two, or put it in the bank, or move to dividend/utilities/green/more REEs???
> 
> SX
> 
> PS Anyone know the the price of that golden egg laying goose?




As I said, fundamentals etc hard to pick on gold, your PRU rallied well into the close today.

On that latter, goldman saxes for the Federal reserve;

 the paper fairy tale.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> the paper fairy tale.




spot on there mate!


----------



## Southern X

Gold is approaching/hitting its 18 month trendline for the sixth time (trendlines are all about how one draws them and over what period), its bounced up each time. Add oversold to this and UP looks alot less risky. 

If it breaks look out below, for a buying dip or falling knife. I'll be keenly listening to analysis of Bernanke's testimony tomorrow; the European stress tests Friday, and watching the price as Au options expire next week.

SX


----------



## reallysure

So you guys think we are in a bear gold market at the moment?

Possibly hitting the US600oz to US500oz by end of the year?

Sorry i am no expert just curious with your opinions

Thanks


----------



## So_Cynical

reallysure said:


> So you guys think we are in a bear gold market at the moment?
> 
> Possibly hitting the US600oz to US500oz by end of the year?
> 
> Sorry i am no expert just curious with your opinions
> 
> Thanks




With POG at US600oz to US500oz half the producers in the world would be producing at a loss and going broke and the other half would be producing at close to break even...world production would totally collapse.

IMO the chance of POG hitting US600oz to US500oz ever again are zero.


----------



## electronicmaster

reallysure said:


> So you guys think we are in a bear gold market at the moment?
> 
> Possibly hitting the US600oz to US500oz by end of the year?
> 
> Sorry i am no expert just curious with your opinions
> 
> Thanks




The bull market is still in play for Gold and Silver and will be for a few years.

The CFTC has new powers that allows them to enforce position limits on the Derivative Markets.   And they are also going after Computer Market Rigging as well.

This is due to the the Financial Reform Bill that has been signed into law last week in the USA.

Gold and Silver markets from here on will soon be free from massive manipulation (price suppression).

What is happening now?  The major banks and other big financial businesses have been lowering the price of Gold and Silver so they can remove as many short positions while they can.   They can't cover most of their short positions.

Please see this video *"Bart Chilton on Financial Regulatory Reform Legislation, July 2010"* for more information.


----------



## wayneL

So_Cynical said:


> With POG at US600oz to US500oz half the producers in the world would be producing at a loss and going broke and the other half would be producing at close to break even...world production would totally collapse.
> 
> IMO the chance of POG hitting US600oz to US500oz ever again are zero.




I doubt it too, but never say never. Gold only really broke that level in 2006 and if most producers cannot turn a profit at that level, so what does that tell us?


----------



## reallysure

thanks guys i thought so...doesn't take that quick to recover at these times....listening to the old timers they think its the worse they have been in and i do have the feeling gold will still be strong a few years more or even stay at a balanced gold price like all other commodities...just what i have heard thats all.


----------



## Southern X

The five week gold trend is down. Which, in conjunction with seasonality, should be expected, natural, and with the exception of 2008, normal.

I'm not trying to pick the bottom of this dip, just take advantage of the buying opportunities it provides. We'll see what the markets think of the eurobank stress tests later (reminds me of primary school when every kid got a gold/silver star in their workbooks). 

Also curious to see will be the effect of options expiring this week. A couple of posts prior suggested new US legislation will clean up the COMEX trade/contract structure. I hope so, but I don't trade on hope; time will tell.

As for gold going to USD500 to 600, the only upside here would be having sold your gold stocks north of gold USD1000, then buying back BIG. Because if it's in that low range the move up -- spike aside -- is near a triple. Add a spike and that quarter acre block is paid for, and the next one, and the...

SX


----------



## GumbyLearner

The crooks need it bad.  

http://dandenong-leader.whereilive.com.au/news/story/bold-burglars-going-for-gold-in-dandenong/

A SPATE of gold thefts over the past month in Greater Dandenong has sparked a police warning to residents.

Detective acting Sgt Dean Marchant said the burglars focused on electronic equipment and gold, possibly due to its strong market price.

“They appear to be targeting jewellery - in particularly gold


----------



## Buckfont

GumbyLearner said:


> The crooks need it bad.
> 
> http://dandenong-leader.whereilive.com.au/news/story/bold-burglars-going-for-gold-in-dandenong/
> 
> A SPATE of gold thefts over the past month in Greater Dandenong has sparked a police warning to residents.
> 
> Detective acting Sgt Dean Marchant said the burglars focused on electronic equipment and gold, possibly due to its strong market price.
> 
> “They appear to be targeting jewellery - in particularly gold




I`d say this more to do with junkies and the like feeding their habit, as opposed to the AU price going up.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Buckfont said:


> I`d say this more to do with junkies and the like feeding their habit, as opposed to the AU price going up.




You could be right. Pawn shops are definitely no place to sell gold unless your desperate. But looks like a spate of burglaries. So if that were the case, then surely fabricated jewelry items would likely have been spotted by now. TV's, DVDs, Stereos all depreciate in value though...I suppose gold can too like 10 years ago.


----------



## Buckfont

GumbyLearner said:


> You could be right. Pawn shops are definitely no place to sell gold unless your desperate. But looks like a spate of burglaries. So if that were the case, then surely fabricated jewelry items would likely have been spotted by now. TV's, DVDs, Stereos all depreciate in value though...I suppose gold can too like 10 years ago.




Could be ?


----------



## reallysure

GumpyLearner your spot on!

Pawnshops and Second Hand dealers are a no go....go to bullion places...there are a few around any city your from

Cheers


----------



## Ageo

reallysure said:


> GumpyLearner your spot on!
> 
> Pawnshops and Second Hand dealers are a no go....go to bullion places...there are a few around any city your from
> 
> Cheers




Hey dont knock all 2ndhand dealers........... just 99.9% of em


----------



## reallysure

nice 0.1% is not bad


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> Hey dont knock all 2ndhand dealers........... just 99.9% of em




From my trading in physical but more (pleased to say) accumulation it is coin dealers for me.  I'm with you Ageo, your steady counsel over the last four years on PM's has always been spot on.

Now,,, do not take umbridge at this Gumby, you are very correct on pawn shops and those cheats buying jewelry at shopping centres are scum in my view.


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> From my trading in physical but more (pleased to say) accumulation it is coin dealers for me.  I'm with you Ageo, your steady counsel over the last four years on PM's has always been spot on.
> 
> Now,,, do not take umbridge at this Gumby, you are very correct on pawn shops and those cheats buying jewelry at shopping centres are scum in my view.




Thanks explod, although my views and thoughts are just that on my personal experience from the field. Atm its very flat in the market (very very flat) but i have been buying up and holding, seasonal run coming should bump it up a tad. The dollar isnt helping but thats life.


----------



## Southern X

Ah, sweet drop.

This week is tough if one is if you're holding. For those who sold (I sold PRU) it's a waiting game to buy back in or find something else (REEs, eg. ALK, which also has plenty of gold).

The charts suggest a buy around the $1140 support, make sure it's tested; or confirmation of a solid break-out, $1225. Option expiry week doesn't help, again, depending if one is in or out.

Happy hunting! (I've got a few in my sights, hope you do too).

SX


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> From my trading in physical but more (pleased to say) accumulation it is coin dealers for me.  I'm with you Ageo, your steady counsel over the last four years on PM's has always been spot on.




Agreed. Ageo one of my favorite contributors to this thread.


----------



## Ageo

Wow im actually really glad i could have been of assistance to some on this forum.

Here is something i bought the other day

620gram 9ct dog chain, its interesting when people need to sell they scrap all sorts of things.





Uploaded with ImageShack.us


----------



## reallysure

cool

if anyone tells me there is confidence in europe please shoot me...take a look at Greece at the moment..chaos in tourism time...gold will definitely go way up if it keeps on going and spreads....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuIEaI_MnxI&feature=fvsr

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...k-truckers-step-up-strike-20100728-10vsy.html

http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2010/07/28/talks_to_end_greek_fuel_strike_collapse/

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2010/07/28/ppc-unions-threaten-with-general-strike/


----------



## reallysure

*The Tulip Craze*

Over US2,000oz by next year?

Check out The Vulcan Report(part 1 and 2)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdAhsrRuUR8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_976869&v=SKvDWHZatcc&feature=iv


----------



## explod

> "On the cusp of a parabolic rise up"




: via the GATA site.  

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/Investor...Gold's on the cusp of a parabolic move up.pdf

Good move back up overnight, but watch the stregth of silver and the weakness of the US$ index to preceed big moves up, on the latter, it fell through support around 82 this week, a fall below 80 cents will send the chooks into scatter mode.  From my sources bigger players in gold are taking long postisions the last week or so, we shall see.

Interesting week coming up in my view.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> The red line shows support I am interested in. I exit my gold shorts here because really, I don't like being short gold. I would prefer to take a short position on silver if we go below support on the weekly, as there is some fundamental aspect of that trade - silver still being a strongly industrial commodity.




Re the above chart and post. We do not know where the gold price is heading, but we do know gold close the week and month above 1180. I feel 1250 shorts were closed at an appropriate spot. Glad I did not make the attempt to chase price lower for now. As mentioned, I can always chase downside using silver for better backing fundamentals, if I feel to go short again. For now just patiently waiting to see what's going to happen - don't need to be in every single market swing.


----------



## Ageo

sinner said:


> Re the above chart and post. We do not know where the gold price is heading, but we do know gold close the week and month above 1180. I feel 1250 shorts were closed at an appropriate spot. Glad I did not make the attempt to chase price lower for now. As mentioned, I can always chase downside using silver for better backing fundamentals, if I feel to go short again. For now just patiently waiting to see what's going to happen - don't need to be in every single market swing.
> 
> View attachment 38167




sinner i think ur sig line explains this gold movement atm.


----------



## electronicmaster

*'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'*

*Federal Reserve to start the deflation fight next week, expert claims* well see more reports on that next week I think.

*'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'*


----------



## Ageo

*Re: 'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'*



electronicmaster said:


> *Federal Reserve to start the deflation fight next week, expert claims* well see more reports on that next week I think.
> 
> *'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'*




Long term yes i agree but short - medium term? not sure about that, it seems any gains anyway are being eroded via a stronger AUD.

1400AU by the yrs end is where i think it will hover around but only time will tell. If your like me you dont really care where it goes short term, atm im just buying up more and more.


----------



## Chargin8

Im still learning about gold but if we do have big problems in the USA coming and gold goes to $4000 wont the AUD increase in value vs USD thereby aussie investors wont see the big gains?
Or would we be hugely effected by a USA depression so our dollar might even devalue?
We didnt loose anything re AUD:USD post GFC we gained so Im wondering.


----------



## electronicmaster

Chargin8 said:


> Im still learning about gold but if we do have big problems in the USA coming and gold goes to $4000 wont the AUD increase in value vs USD thereby aussie investors wont see the big gains?
> Or would we be hugely effected by a USA depression so our dollar might even devalue?
> We didnt loose anything re AUD:USD post GFC we gained so Im wondering.




Gold and Silver can (and has) gone up in price while the USD Index is going up at the same time.  This is also true when the AUD/USD had been going up in the past year as well.

All currencies will devalue in the end.  First the USD then the rest will follow.  It is one way to default on the Debt that is in the Trillions or higher.

This is what the G20/G8 meetings are about.

Id say that you would want to keep the Metals until you see a Gold backed Currency. 

Remember that the people of Zimbabwe were Trillionairs, but could not feed themselves.  Only grains of Gold paid for food. 

In Russia, you still had to pay with currency (by law) to buy food. So you need to see if a black market is going to be king or not.

Never sell physical Gold or Silver.  Only sell paper because soon, the physical market is bound to dry up.  The Physical Market will run out of Silver before they run out of Gold.

Also, don't be surprised if they slam down the price of Gold and Silver.  That is the game they play to make people panic sell.  Guess who is going to buy it all?


----------



## sinner

It's not just that gold can go up at the same time as USD, but gold actually behaves just like money (if we assume the USDX to be a fair proxy of "money") in times of market uncertainty.

If you had bought bought gold or the USD at the start of 2010 for safety and "store of value" reasons, both would have performed pretty much the same. Buying dollars a bit less volatile. But try draw the same chart comparing USD to oil or USD to 10 year US treasuries. You will see gold matched the behaviour of USDX most closely since 2010 began.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> It's not just that gold can go up at the same time as USD, but gold actually behaves just like money (if we assume the USDX to be a fair proxy of "money") in times of market uncertainty.
> 
> If you had bought bought gold or the USD at the start of 2010 for safety and "store of value" reasons, both would have performed pretty much the same. Buying dollars a bit less volatile. But try draw the same chart comparing USD to oil or USD to 10 year US treasuries. You will see gold matched the behaviour of USDX most closely since 2010 began.




Which is unusual.   If you look at it from 2002 to 2009 they worked counter all the way.  The us$index at 1.20 and gold then at us$350

However in the last month the us$ index has fallen nearly 10%, whilst gold has been flatline.  If the us$ index brakes below .80 we may see a collapse.  Gold seems to be finding support at this level even though it is at a seasonally quiet time.

Interesting, and good insights there Sinner.


----------



## electronicmaster

sinner said:


> It's not just that gold can go up at the same time as USD, but gold actually behaves just like money (if we assume the USDX to be a fair proxy of "money") in times of market uncertainty.
> 
> If you had bought bought gold or the USD at the start of 2010 for safety and "store of value" reasons, both would have performed pretty much the same. Buying dollars a bit less volatile. But try draw the same chart comparing USD to oil or USD to 10 year US treasuries. You will see gold matched the behaviour of USDX most closely since 2010 began.




Oh yes, this is when Greece and soon after the whole EU had issues.  The DOW later dropped 1000 points in a day before the massive EU bail out (1 Trillion USD)

Yep, That is the time when the EURO was dropping and everyone in the EU was buying up physical Gold.  Others fled to the US treasuries.


----------



## electronicmaster

electronicmaster said:


> Oh yes, this is when Greece and soon after the whole EU had issues.  The DOW later dropped 1000 points in a day before the massive EU bail out (1 Trillion USD)
> 
> Yep, That is the time when the EURO was dropping and everyone in the EU was buying up physical Gold.  Others fled to the US treasuries.




Also to note is the big dip downs in the price of gold is when options expired.  They do not like options expiring in the money, so they slam the price of gold and silver down for a week or two.  

The Gold price on the last month (July) is JP Morgan (and other commercials) trying to exit out of their massive short positions.  The very same short positions that has suppressed both Gold and Silver for some time. 

The financial reform bill might have something to do with this, but then again they all want to go long in Gold and Silver too.


----------



## sinner

With the Aussie dollar approaching its all time highs, as well and the gold oil ratio back around 14-15 I am once again interested in the long term accumulation of shares in Australian gold miners.



The Australian XGD index having already flashed a buy signal on the daily.


----------



## skcots

Excuse my ignorance I am fairly new to this. What is the relevance of the gold : oil ratio?


----------



## sinner

skcots said:


> Excuse my ignorance I am fairly new to this. What is the relevance of the gold : oil ratio?




Aside from the historical importance (i.e. previously there was no such thing as a "petrodollar" if you wanted to buy oil from the Saudis you had to pay in gold) the fact is if you want to dig up gold you must expend energy, specifically oil.

So the ratio of what one unit of gold (or whatever being mined) is worth compared to a barrel of oil is important as one of the metrics for valuing any mining corp.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/gold_oil_ratio.php


----------



## skcots

Thanks for the link. Makes sense.


----------



## Logique

Tried a search of this forum without success: 

has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).

No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.


----------



## Mr Z

skcots said:


> Excuse my ignorance I am fairly new to this. What is the relevance of the gold : oil ratio?




It can give you a clue as to when one or the other of the markets is out of whack and ***maybe*** offering a tradeable situation. It can stay persistently out of balance for quite a while... anyway, as with other ratios like the gold/silver ratio it means nothing in any absolute sense but it can point you toward a fundamental  mis-pricing. Anyway you still have to do the work and find out why the imbalance is occurring. It can be quite opaque because there is no overwhelming single reason for any given relationship at any given time. These ratios are best used as one clue among many. Using the WTIC in a ratio against say XOI is probably going to give you a better idea of oil stock over or under valuation or gold against the HUI for gold stocks. The HUI/Gold ratio sits at 0.38 now, pre GFC that ratio lived closer to 0.50 getting as high as 0.58. Meaning that the HUI can go +25% to get to a more normal relationship with gold and +40% to get to an over value without gold moving a $. That is not going to happen but as gold moves up you can see the potential leverage on offer if a more normal relationship is established. If we hit the high 0.5x's again start looking for reasons to exit the market as we are very likely close to a short term top in the stocks and gold... JMO FWIW.

Ratios can be handy, just take the time to understand why they are where they are before drawing a conclusion!


----------



## Hurricane

Logique said:


> Tried a search of this forum without success:
> 
> has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).
> 
> No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.




Look up Baker Steel Investments they are major SH's in a couple of small miners I own.......


----------



## thesnowyforest

Also, don't be surprised if they slam down the price of Gold and Silver.  That is the game they play to make people panic sell.  Guess who is going to buy it all?[/QUOTE]

That comment is GOLD.


----------



## Mr Z

The COT numbers are supportive of a stronger price moving forward. That does not mean we can't fake lower in the near term but that the background is favorable for a decent rally in the mid term. (weeks?) We are less likely to see a big slam with this sort of background... of course this may change with this weeks report but its not so likely without the rally first.


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> Tried a search of this forum without success:
> 
> has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).
> 
> No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.




Can you give an idea of what you want to achieve.   

I have been an investor/trader for 13 years and have not heard of Morningstar, are they a rating group?

Having utilised investment advisers (expensive I might add) for 6 years I learnt that I was much better off putting the ruler over things myself.  In doing that of course I had to hit the books and do a great deal of work.  

I am basically a trend follower with fundamantal back up.  It has served me well.   Gold has been in a solid uptrend since 2001, hence my interst in this area.

Put up some questions and you will find plenty of directions will come for you to check.  And p/m if you wish, but things you learn openly others can too.  Many think that simple questions are stupid.  Nothing is like that in sincere discussions here on ASF.

A geat guiding light with a lifetime of experience is Ageo  (He is a gold/silver metals dealer working out of Sydney), you will find him on the "Bullion" and "Silver" threads too.


----------



## Ageo

Logique said:


> Tried a search of this forum without success:
> 
> has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).
> 
> No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.




Interesting you ask this as late last yr 1 major refiner that i deal with closely in Sydney went to a meeting regarding super companies etc... they were there simply to give some more light on the benefits of allocating small sections on their portfolios in physical PM's (gold being the most attractive of course).

For example if large fund managers were allowed to hold Precious Metals then they can give people more of an option to cover themselves in times of uncertainty.... Now the problem with this is most people would say there wouldnt be enough supply to keep up with demand (in allocated PM's not paper)... so in theory the price would most definately need to move up to close that gap..... but for some reason they are not interested still at this stage.... (maybe it makes manipulation harder?? hehe who knows).

Good to see thow hard tangibles making a come back in out markets as lately all you see is paper flying around everywhere backed by nothing.


----------



## Logique

G'day Explod, Hurricane and Ageo,

thanks, much appreciate your comments. Noticed this morning a nice jump to $1215 USD/oz.

Basically what it's about, is I consider exposure to gold a must in these times and into the future. I've always liked to have managed funds in my investment makeup (I'm not the font of all wisdom, so let some professionals work for me) and have been fortunate enough to do well with that strategy. 

Holding some direct shares as well. 

Physical gold - complicated for a retail investor
Gold backed ETFs - better, so long as you trust the management, and their physical reserves
Direct equities - LGL, NCM, AVO etc - quite good leverage to price, although exposed to broader market volatility
Managed Fund - if I can find one. There are global resources funds out there covering a wider suite of metals. But hey some precious metals diversity might be just fine.

Explod, I'm feeling crook this morning, just heard the latest polls.


----------



## Agentm

i was contemplating an entry into gold

but GS put out a huge report a day ago telling all how brilliant gold was and to get into it big time.

the decision to enter has been made for me now, if GS says buy, then its not the right time to buy at all

staying out right now, i suspect GS will sell heavily as the sheep follow their call..  later on i will consider and entry once the GS move is over..

absolutely expect gold to rise immediately for a short period atm..

all imho and dyor


----------



## Ageo

Well as i mentioned in another forum this appears to be a sucker rally......

You could still see a continue push up, then followed by another correction which hopefully sets itself up for a nice upward trend for the seasonal run.....

Short term volatility i expect but i stand by around the 1400ishAUD by the yrs end......

Jewellery market is very very quiet around the globe, bullion as slowed off also but this time of the yr it usually is much quieter compared to the festive season....

For a long term investor thow these prices are simply a "buy" signal....


----------



## trainspotter

Completely agree with Ageo on this one. I actually have suppliers asking me if I want to buy from them at heavily discounted prices. Jewellery suppliers that is and not the gold mint.

_Jewellery market is very very quiet around the globe, bullion as slowed off also but this time of the yr it usually is much quieter compared to the festive season...._

June quarter down 18% in the pearl shop. July & August not looking much better.


----------



## Ageo

trainspotter said:


> June quarter down 18% in the pearl shop. July & August not looking much better.




Problem in the jewellery market is too much supply and not enough demand...... Im 1 of the few who still imports 18ct gold as alot of shops you will struggle to see a large selection of 18ct gold jewellery as normally the prices are through the roof on the retail side....

Basically a higher gold price will affect jewellery sales simply because the "cost" will be much higher to the individual customer but the "margin" will be the same and in many cases less so the jewellery shop can make the sale.

This recession (and thats what im calling it for our industry) is very good thow as it should clean out alot of wannabees who just jumped on for the ride when times were good....

Sorry for going off topic but sometimes any market information can be handy in doing your analysis for future trading.....


----------



## Mr Z

So what do we think of the review of commodity position limits and the likely tightening of them over the next six months? The COT reports suggest that the commercials are preparing for some change in that area. Of course we need to watch them going forward but for now their actions are supportive of higher prices. They appear to be shaking the tree, especially in silver, the volatility could be fun. I had a strong day in my bell weather goldies today, certainly seem to be a number of buyers discounting a continued rally. We watch with interest...


----------



## trainspotter

Ageo said:


> Problem in the jewellery market is too much supply and not enough demand...... Im 1 of the few who still imports 18ct gold as alot of shops you will struggle to see a large selection of 18ct gold jewellery as normally the prices are through the roof on the retail side....
> 
> Basically a higher gold price will affect jewellery sales simply because the "cost" will be much higher to the individual customer but the "margin" will be the same and in many cases less so the jewellery shop can make the sale.
> 
> This recession (and thats what im calling it for our industry) is very good thow as it should clean out alot of wannabees who just jumped on for the ride when times were good....
> 
> Sorry for going off topic but sometimes any market information can be handy in doing your analysis for future trading.....




I still prefer to wrap my pieces in 18ct and use 9ct on the Omega chains. Still sourcing Argyle VVS I's diamonds for the high end quality jewellery pieces. Have really noticed the customer wants the 18ct pieces and tend to shy away from the 9ct stuff? Could possibly drop stone grade and achieve same result but would not feel the same.

I get my gold from the Perth Mint on occasion and have an "alternative" source that is a little cheaper but just a lot easier to deal with. Have even tried prospecting myself with a little touch of success.  Still have a rock on the shelf in the lounge room that speckles when the light hits it. Maybe 7 to 8 grams worth.

I can only hope that gold price flattens out and does not take an upward trend. But I know I am wrong. Gold is the safe haven and will continue to be the commodity of choice of the safe haven bretheren.


----------



## explod

trainspotter said:


> I can only hope that gold price flattens out and does not take an upward trend. But I know I am wrong. Gold is the safe haven and will continue to be the commodity of choice of the safe haven bretheren.




What is your reasoning in hoping the gold price will flatten out ?


----------



## Sean K

trainspotter said:


> Completely agree with Ageo on this one. I actually have suppliers asking me if I want to buy from them at heavily discounted prices. Jewellery suppliers that is and not the gold mint.
> 
> _Jewellery market is very very quiet around the globe, bullion as slowed off also but this time of the yr it usually is much quieter compared to the festive season...._
> 
> June quarter down 18% in the pearl shop. July & August not looking much better.



Hope you're going OK with this downturn spotter of trains. That's a significant downturn in anyone's language.


----------



## trainspotter

explod said:


> What is your reasoning in hoping the gold price will flatten out ?




Mainly wishful thinking on my behalf but with the AUD as strong as it is I would have thought the smart money would be in currency swaps instead of the tradtional safe havens such as gold. But with the Eurozone and USA still with the jitters it is more than likely it will continue to rise IMO. Maybe $1400 and higher by years end ?


----------



## Mr Z

Investment demand for gold always tends to throttle back jewelry demand. History has taught the jewelry trade to pull back when this sort of price strength occurs. At least that is how it has always looked from the outside. I think that the demand for gold is being more and more driven from the investment side and that tactics may need to change as this market heats up. Of course I would also expect retail customers are experiencing some  'sticker shock'.

Its is going to be an interesting summer, cycles have us due for a good move, some stocks are seemingly anticipating it. Popular targets are in the 1300,1600 and the close to 2k area. I favor 16xx and a blow off higher in conditions develop in the right way (sounds too optimistic no?). Silver also looks good, with some nice wild card possibilities... $2x for sure, $3x looks doable and a complete surprise is possible, limit up days that lead to who knows where (don't bet on it but the fuel is there given the correct conditions). I expect it will out perform at the least, I will be happy with that.


----------



## trainspotter

kennas said:


> Hope you're going OK with this downturn spotter of trains. That's a significant downturn in anyone's language.




Thankfully the pearl shop is not the only source of income. The shop had a fantastic previous 12 months so an 18% downturn for the quarter though taking a fair chunk out of turnover has not dented the viability of the enterprise. What surprised me the most was the lacklustre start to the new fiscal year in jewellery sales. Not a lot of cash out there ! Talking to some other jewllers in the big smoke they are having 50% - 70% sales just to create turnover !! Pffffffffftttt now that is doing it tough when you see those kind of signs in the window.


----------



## explod

This blokes take is a good summary of what I have come to understand in relation to where gold may be heading in the medium term.   Martin Hennecke interviewed on CNBC.  Though I traced him down via the GATA web page he is not associated with them.  These fresh analyst takes seem to be increasing.

He talks of the manipulation in commodity and stock markets around the world and that in a GFC2 there will not be the available funds to save the next correction without massive money printing and of couse you can guess the impact on gold and silver from such a point.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1565433403&play=1

Goes for about 5 minutes.


----------



## Logique

Retail generally has been extremely tough, perhaps as bad as many have experienced. When Mr Harvey is on the screen spruiking discount plasmas you know it.

For gold bulls, there was an interesting link someone supplied earlier in this thread:  

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-price-to-cross-$4000oz-30636-3-1.html   

This guy thinks 4000, and must be a believer in the giant head and shoulders pattern theory, because he's saying Dow to fall to an unbelievable low of 1,000. I mean imagine it!

A fantasy by comparison to mainstream opinion. But alarmingly, the guy's CV shows he is no mug.


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> This guy thinks 4000, and must be a believer in the giant head and shoulders pattern theory, because he's saying Dow to fall to an unbelievable low of 1,000. I mean imagine it!
> 
> A fantasy by comparison to mainstream opinion. But alarmingly, the guy's CV shows he is no mug.




Maybe it is manistream opinion that is the fantasy now, reading the business sectors of all the rags yesterday shows busniess commentators becoming very uneasy.

The news clip I provided on the post just prior to yours Logique concludes the same, though he is inferring 5000 plus and give sensible rationale in my view.

I used to believe the Dow would go back to around 1000 and have posted charts and commentary to that effect, it is based on cheap money being inserted at stratiegic times and when you line them up you realise that the rises in the Dow since mid 1990 have been built on borrowing (money printing) etc.  However the manipulation on that will continue.  And one such facit is that as companies go bellie up (and there has been a huge stream of them the last three years) they are taken out of the index.


----------



## Mr Z

He is pulling punches at $4000, mid $5000 is a cert and really the limit depends on the Federal Reserve. What a USD is worth at that point is another question all together. There are many credible arguments for high 4 digit numbers and that is not considering issue's like the Muslim world is slowly officially re-monetizing  gold and silver. If I could tell you the ultimate number today you would laugh in my face.... just like you would have if I told you $800+ when gold was $35.

Gold is heading higher, much higher, how high is down to government monetary policy. So far they are loading this market with rocket fuel.

I'd not count on such a low figure for the DOW, we are pushing into liquidity driven market territory and it could produce some real surprises. Zimbabwe had the hottest stock market in the world, at least in Z$.... We are headed to real stretchy dollar territory so metrics of old will be distorted.

Safe to say that gold will probably hit 1:1 with the DOW ---> but at what number?


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Though I traced him down via the GATA web page he is not associated with them.




GATA LOL.... they are a bunch of nut's that just happen to be right about a number of things. They constantly shoot at their own feet! They provide me with endless fun, I actually suspect they are funded by Goldman to keep up the crazy goldbug image and scare middle class conservative money away. They do it sooooooo well and somehow **** up despite having discovered some underlying truths of the gold market.


----------



## trainspotter

Well bugger me ! ASF must really work ! Pearl shop went off on Saturday morning with three large pieces selling. Monday (today) and blow me down with a feather, 2 more pieces walk out the door ?? Nice ! Gratuity cheque is in the mail Joe Blow !


----------



## Ageo

Haha nice work TS....

Do you make your own jewellery? or get a jeweller to make the pieces up?

Also are those diamonds or C.Z's? in between?


----------



## trainspotter

Ageo said:


> Haha nice work TS....
> 
> Do you make your own jewellery? or get a jeweller to make the pieces up?
> 
> Also are those diamonds or C.Z's? in between?




YEAH ... talk about stranger than fiction? Write about how bad things are on the sales front and it lights up. I design the jewellery and I have a jeweller working full time making pieces for me. They are the real deal on the stones BTW. VVS1 Argyles is all I buy with certificates. Mate of mine worked for 16 years for Argyle as one of their graders so he knows his stuff. I just phone him with what I want and it turns up literally the next day. Pearls are from my farm. From memory they were 3rd generation seeds so quality was right up there but size was lacking. That particular piece found a new home with 9ct Omega chain for $2350.00 with Authenticity Certificates. 

I have junk jewllery in the shop as well with CZ's but there is nothing like the "real" thing IMO.


----------



## Ageo

Nice pieces mate, if you have a catalogue of some sort send it as i always have customers looking for new things 

(sorry for off topic)

Back to gold..... the sucker rally sure is kicking in now


----------



## trainspotter

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures were steady Monday near seven-week highs as participants remained on edge about the sustainability of the economic recovery but didn't want to purchase new positions ahead of economic data later in the week. 

With little fresh news to drive the metal higher after rising last week on disappointing economic figures, the most-actively traded December contract fell 30 cents, or 0.02%, to settle at $1,228.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. 

"If you're trying to make an argument bullish or bearish right now, it's very difficult," said Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of the Linn Group in Chicago. "Nothing's going on." 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100823-709753.html

*Nevertheless, gold is retaining its upward bias. * Except for the little blip downwards yesterday.


----------



## Mr Z

LOL... "If you're trying to make an argument bullish or bearish right now, it's very difficult," said Ira Epstein

This time of year and with the COT market structure the way it is the 6 month outlook is bullish.... no two ways around that. I am not sure what could happen to wreck that save say 2008 again with all the leverage on the Comex getting its neck wrung. Still, even then the physical market will dry up and wait it out.

Ira likes charts, you have to turn gold charts upside down if you want to trade and win FWIW 

Happy Tuesday to you!


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> With the Aussie dollar approaching its all time highs, as well and the gold oil ratio back around 14-15 I am once again interested in the long term accumulation of shares in Australian gold miners.
> View attachment 38323
> 
> 
> The Australian XGD index having already flashed a buy signal on the daily.
> 
> View attachment 38324




Posted Aug 09 during Tokyo. Close of that day for XGD was 6434. 14 days later and XGD closed the day yesterday at 6636, a full 200 points higher. 

Having accumulated some shares in Australian gold miners over this period and armed with this small profit, I will distribute some here back into the market to reduce exposure and retain the rest as part of my "bottom-drawer" portfolio. Once the share goes into the bottom drawer, share price is mostly irrelevant, I only plan to exit this portfolio in the very far distant future or in need of emergency cash funds.


----------



## Ageo

Ageo @ 17th-August-2010 said:


> the sucker rally sure is kicking in now




Anyone ride this baby? i expect a few more short puffs before the retracement kicks in.....

Dow plunging is obviously helping the rally....


----------



## electronicmaster

Options Expiry starts today.

I'm surprised they have not smacked the price of Silver and Gold down yet.  Lots of Options will expire in the Money if Gold and Silver keeps going up.

Maybe on the 30th of August? Prices might go down?  

I wana buy on the cheap


----------



## Logique

Thought this would bring a smile to the faces of the gold bugs. Paulson is one smart guy.



> http://www.newsweek.com/2009/11/09/the-greatest-trade-ever.html
> *The Greatest Trade Ever*
> (Excerpt from the article):
> 
> His [John Paulson] biggest gains are in '07, which now strikes us as a relatively placid time in the market. *But in 2008, he was still bearish on housing and pivots to buying credit-default swaps on the institutions that were peddling subprime mortgages, like Bear Stearns*. One of the most interesting passages in the book is where he's at this meeting with Bear Stearns.
> 
> ...By the end of the lunch everybody else in the room was like, "Wow, John Paulson actually knows what he's talking about, the Bear Stearns guys don't. Instead of bringing my money back to Bear Stearns, I'm going to start shorting that stock." And that to me is a final nail in the coffin.
> 
> ...*He made a brilliant bet shorting subprime*. *But as the book closes, he's buying gold*, which doesn't strike me as a particularly out-of-the-box bet in this climate.
> 
> He's very good at synthesizing and making some complex topics very simple. And he's made it into a simple argument: the expanded supply of money and the fiat currency is under pressure, and *what's the only thing that holds up when the fiat currency is under pressure? It's gold*. You could argue that he hasn't achieved that kind of renown as an intellectual, and I'm not sure he's so focused on it. I think he wants it, but he is fascinated by big trades, and his whole life he has been. It's not about the money—listen, he likes his big homes, trust me—but more importantly he just wants to keep making big trades.


----------



## Mr Z

Paulson was buying in the $9xx area... maybe he still is. He didn't get a lot of support for the gold fund he was setting up with a big whack of his own money, a great sign at the time IMO. I'd say there are a few regrets from people that shunned the offer at the time ---> and this party is not even started yet FWIW.



PS: Gold investor..... NOT bug! goldbugs are a certain type, tinned food, survival kits, small coins for trade, the economy & society as we know it is going to die types. LOL in some parts of the US they may well be right in the end but here in Oz I will just be a gold investor..... albeit with a silver lining!


----------



## explod

As I speak we are just a few US dollars short of the all time high for gold.  

The canary in the mine though has been the silver price.  In 2008 it hit a 28 year high at a time which saw the Dow tumble.  At US$19.50 it is not there yet (US$21) but the action of the last few weeks would indicate a test of that spike could be on and; where to the Dow this time?.  

With the US Fed's quantative easing easing back in to keep the green shoots ever growing something has to start to give IMV.

My take is that they will hold up the Dow and let the US dollar slide;  this has always been very bullish for gold.

Should be an interesting night but as has happened many times just prior to 10am Wall Street time gold can be knocked down $10 in a few minutes.


----------



## Mr Z

*Up... LOL!*

Nice chart BTW, seasonal winds at our back & get a load of AND


----------



## trainspotter

1st Day of spring will do that to gold ! HEYYYYYYYY ........ it's only returning to where it was in July?


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah, nice spurt... but I'm thinking it won't go on with it much past last high, $1265, if at all. There's serios MACD divergance supporting my previously posted longer term view that this area is about tops and due for a reasonable correction.

I sold my last speciality gold stock on Monday, so I hope I picked close to the top in the short to medium term.


----------



## sinner

So I guess I'm the only one who sold $1254 with a $1266 stop?

The green line is the 90% retracement of 1265-1156 decline. Maybe the start of a strong downwave.

EDIT: Whiskers beat me to it.

Just a small speculative trade, about 10 ounces worth.


----------



## trainspotter

Nice pick chaps. Well done on the timing of your run. Still waiting on a few more indicators before I pull the trigger on this one.  Bit more pus to be squeezed out before I fold.


----------



## Mr Z

trainspotter said:


> 1st Day of spring will do that to gold ! HEYYYYYYYY ........ it's only returning to where it was in July?




YES! Lovely predictably volatile gold! Kinda like ringing a cash register only scared weird little guys pop out and boo you when you sell and cheer when you buy. Its sooooo much fun


----------



## trainspotter

BOO ! "Cha ching" ... is that better? 

What cracks me up is price per gram has gone up only $8.73 per gram over a 12 month period BUT to buy chains or "made" product has nearly doubled?


----------



## So_Cynical

trainspotter said:


> 1st Day of spring will do that to gold ! HEYYYYYYYY ........ it's only returning to where it was in July?




Yep Just world multi currency record territory...again.


----------



## sinner

So_Cynical said:


> Yep Just world multi currency record territory...again.




Way off the highs priced in AUD CHF or JPY


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> So I guess I'm the only one who sold $1254 with a $1266 stop?
> .




A promising start to the evening:


----------



## trainspotter

sinner said:


> A promising start to the evening:




Let it roll baby ...... let it roll.


----------



## Mr Z

Its the end of August!!!! Seriously? and what we are shorting gold? Best of luck gents, take anything she gives you QUICKLY.


----------



## Logique

You do dribble on you lot, fair dinkum! 
______________________________________________________
Aug 26 2010 10:07AM
*Gold Rushing On*
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/holmes_aug262010.html  - nice chart if you visit the URL

The World Gold Council’s latest quarterly recap of the gold market confirms much of the big-picture story we already knew: demand is strong (up 36 percent from a year earlier), supply (up 18 percent) is not keeping pace, and global economic worries are driving investors toward gold as a safe haven. 

Drilling down a little further turns up a number of interesting points:

Investment demand in the second quarter of 2010 (red bar in the chart) more than doubled compared to the same period in 2009, and accounted for more than half of total global demand. *Investors bought the most gold since the first quarter of 2009, at the depths of the Great Recession*.

Demand from exchange-traded funds rose more than 400 percent to about 291 metric tons (9.4 million troy ounces), and retail investors bought about 30 percent more bars, coins and gold in other forms.

*Industrial demand is approaching pre-recession levels*. The WGC credits the growing popularity of new consumer devices like iPads, Kindle electronic readers and netbook computers with driving this trend.

Jewelry demand is down only slightly year-over-year, even though the gold price has risen from the $900+ per ounce range to $1,200 per ounce. In Hong Kong, for example, jewelry demand rose more than 30 percent in physical terms and nearly 80 percent in U.S. dollar terms. 

The WGC says it foresees strong gold demand through the end of 2010, with India and China leading the way, along with concerns about economic recovery and the massive sovereign debt loads in Western Europe and elsewhere.

So far August has been an unusually good month for gold – as of midday today, the price is up 6 percent this month, where historically the August price tends to rise only 2.5 percent above July. 

We recently wrote about gold seasonality – *September, just a few days away now, is on average the best month for both gold and gold equities.* Learn why September means ready, set, gold!

We also have written about gold in the context of the global economic uncertainty and also about China’s important role in future gold demand.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. 

by Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> Its the end of August!!!! Seriously? and what we are shorting gold? Best of luck gents, take anything she gives you QUICKLY.




Disagree. From my lay and almost certainly wrong perspective it appears SNB and BoJ are selling gold on the open market and using the proceeds as extra leverage to weaken their currencies against the USD.

Profitable to remain short so far.


----------



## Mr Z

OK 

Best O luck with it.


----------



## explod

Yeh best of luck from me too Sinner.

Some serious money now buying any dips in both gold and silver.  The latter defying the bullion banks supression this morning.

Interesting times.
_________________________________
I am not a bug but a long term investor


----------



## Logique

Gangbuster day yesterday for gold stocks, truly epic.


----------



## sinner

Logique said:


> Gangbuster day yesterday for gold stocks, truly epic.




I pointed out Aussie gold stocks as a buy when ASX XGD was at 6200 when nobody was really interested, and bottomed drawered my trades at 6400ish. Fridays close was 7300ish.

Investment & timing allocation to physical, trading allocation to gold stocks and long/short exposure to leveraged gold has proved profitable all year. Remember, I just trade my simple gold plan for many years now (even before I knew about "trading"). As always, I will continue to buy USD when it is weak against gold, and if that returns a profit, to convert those profits to physical gold when gold is weak against USD. You've seen me call this sort of setup more than once by now, even when interest in gold on this forum was low and it was just explod and I posting in this thread.

The HUI and TSX XGD were certainly not moving along the same lines during New York hours last night, which makes me wonder exactly what caused the run up in Aussie goldminers on Friday. It is possible Aussie gold stocks are pricing in takeover opportunities by an international gold miner.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> The HUI and TSX XGD were certainly not moving along the same lines during New York hours last night, which makes me wonder exactly what caused the run up in Aussie goldminers on Friday. It is possible Aussie gold stocks are pricing in takeover opportunities by an international gold miner.




In fact Aussie gold stocks have been undervalued for a number of years now.  First a lot got burnt with things like Bendigo, Ballarat mines et al.  It has been obvious to me that the sentiment towards gold stocks have been greater in the US and Canada for nearly three years now.   Those wondering why AND has gone so high ought to consider the sentiment of those outside of Australia, pushing it up on *their* perception of value.

Against that backdrop I still believe stocks such as AVO, OGC and even SBM remain bargains for the longer term.   My research of the 1970's 80's some years back revealed that some gold miners in that period went up 100 times when in fact gold only rose about 25 times.  Once gold goes well above production costs the multiples to profits go up many times more.  

The gold price in Aussie dollars may be weak in some minds too, but remember most gold is sold in US dollars.

Interesting press out of Bloomberg and others through the week warning investors/traders away from gold as they felt a big correction on.  From that you can be sure which way the correction is going and that the powers that be are very concerned about the significance of a rising gold price against efforts to protect currency values, particularly the $US.   Of course there* is no value*, its all packaged debt; the greatest ponzie in history must be very close to full revellation of the empty cupboard IMVHO (some suggest Fort Knox too)

Watch the silver price in particular and gold come along from behind next week.  With the US not trading Monday there may be a couple of days in which it will be held down a bit. 

Interesting times indeed my friends.


----------



## Whiskers

Looking for a fall into about $1246 ish soon. Nice (potentional) H&S forming on the five min.

PS: Looks like right shoulder is complete and testing neckline.


----------



## Whiskers

Five min chart... now that I've worked out the snipping tool in Win 7.


----------



## Mr Z

Treasury auction week, gold is ALWAYS flat to down.... the US gov likes no distraction when selling debt.

Shorting the seasonal trend in gold is looney low probability stuff, especially after a strong 'weak' season and considering the wider cycles at play!

Now is not the time to pick tops, buy weakness and hold on for a few months... JMO but then what would I know 

+ A head and shoulders pattern is very heavily dependent on the right volume pattern.... don't be foolin yourself with every bump on the screen if the volume is not right.


----------



## oztrades

When talking of comparisons can someone give me a headsup on why GOX/VIX dont align (before you go running off to google. GOX is the CBOE gold index and VIX is the stock volatility CBOE index.


----------



## Mr Z

Never look at it! What is the historic correlation coefficient?


----------



## Agentm

42


i hear the IMF just sold $403 million dollars, or 10 metric tons, to Bangladesh 


which is ok by me..


----------



## Mr Z

-1 to 1 is your range FWIW.

Good, only around 182 tons left then!


----------



## Edwood

oztrades said:


> When talking of comparisons can someone give me a headsup on why GOX/VIX dont align (before you go running off to google. GOX is the CBOE gold index and VIX is the stock volatility CBOE index.




they do align - when volatility increases gold gets dumped


----------



## Mr Z

You'd need to run a correlation on decent data set to support that. Aside from 'the' GFC crunch I don't really see it in that chart.


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> they do align - when volatility increases gold gets dumped




As MrZ says, we need more data from you to be convinced.  What is your time frame ?

I see gold as a backstop (20% being recommended by a lot of advisers) to an overall portfolio.  Since 2001 it has gained an average of 17% per year.   Except for sitting on the screen 5 days a week, this has been a very good strategy for my family and I.

Gold is and will continue to be on this steady rise as governments continue to spend beyond their means and keep printing paper money to disperse as a stimulas.


----------



## explod

For newer members to this thread, the following is a good all round article on gold versus currencies overall and the $US particularly.

http://www.fool.com/investing/inter...ng-dollar.aspx?source=ifesitlnk0000001&lidx=2


----------



## Mr Z

I sincerely hope all shorts have been covered & guys... don't consider shorting this thing until May 2011. The odds will be stacked against you, I'd rather play chicken with a bullet train.

For a big clue pull up a monthly USDX and have a look, chuck a momentum oscillator on it or try slow stochastic... that is what you are fighting short gold at least for now, while Europe is relatively calm.


----------



## ASFASF

Can anyone explain this to me?

If you bought physical gold at the beginning of the financial year you would be up about 6% now in US dollars terms yet the AUD is up against the USD about 11% meaning a net loss of about 5% in AUD.  However in AUD all gold stocks are up 20% plus.  Why are investors not discounting gold stocks for the exchange rate movements?

Thanks for any insights


----------



## explod

ASFASF said:


> Can anyone explain this to me?
> 
> If you bought physical gold at the beginning of the financial year you would be up about 6% now in US dollars terms yet the AUD is up against the USD about 11% meaning a net loss of about 5% in AUD.  However in AUD all gold stocks are up 20% plus.  Why are investors not discounting gold stocks for the exchange rate movements?
> 
> Thanks for any insights




Most of the gold produced is sold in US dollars.

Of course as our dollar becomes stronger then the spending power of our money (and gold) is greater.  Is why this week fuel is getting cheaper too.


----------



## ASFASF

explod said:


> as our dollar becomes stronger then the spending power of our money (and gold) is greater.




Sure spending power goes up but export revenue decreases in real terms.  So shouldn't gold miners' stock prices be reflecting less revenue (in AUD terms) and falling?

Thanks


----------



## explod

ASFASF said:


> Sure spending power goes up but export revenue decreases in real terms.  So shouldn't gold miners' stock prices be reflecting less revenue (in AUD terms) and falling?
> 
> Thanks




Sheer increase in good sales overcoming that, demand for physical gold outstripping demand and world gold production decreasing as mines are exhausting.   Gold is Australia's third largest commodity export earner so very good for us all.

Of course the other thing that hits is gold fever, *sentiment*.  In the gold bull run from 1970 ending with the top in 1980 some aussie gold stocks increased 100 times.   Some who remember do not want to miss it this time around.

DYOR


----------



## ASFASF

Sentiment and speculation must be the drivers as the cost of producing an oz. in AUD is rising and the revenue per oz. in AUD is falling.

I'm a believer in gold btw.

Thanks


----------



## skyQuake

Actually its Anglogold doing a cap raising to close their hedge book

And its a heck of a hedge book!


----------



## So_Cynical

ASFASF said:


> Can anyone explain this to me?
> 
> If you bought physical gold at the beginning of the financial year you would be up about 6% now in US dollars terms yet the AUD is up against the USD about 11% meaning a net loss of about 5% in AUD.  However in AUD all gold stocks are up 20% plus.  Why are investors not discounting gold stocks for the exchange rate movements?
> 
> Thanks for any insights




Big picture .. POG goes up in USD > POG goes up in AUD...a new world record in one currency leads to new world records in others.
~


----------



## Logique

explod said:


> ....In the gold bull run from 1970 ending with the top in 1980 some aussie gold stocks increased 100 times. Some who remember do not want to miss it this time around.DYOR



My hearing must be going...I thought you said 100 times there Explod. But that outcome would be fine by me. 

It's funny listening to various media outlets for the latest price of gold, they clearly have little idea of recent history. 'It's weaker' they say, when it was actually stronger. 'Stronger', when it was actually weaker. Or the classic this week, 'gold is softer at 1268/oz'.


----------



## Mr Z

ASFASF said:


> Sure spending power goes up but export revenue decreases in real terms.  So shouldn't gold miners' stock prices be reflecting less revenue (in AUD terms) and falling?
> 
> Thanks




If their costs are in USD their profit rises in USD. This happens faster than the AUD clips it back. So it makes sense for certain gold stocks to follow USD Gold. What tends to happen once the rally gets going is the wider public get involved and don't make any distinction between the good and the bad. Make sense...


----------



## ASFASF

Mr Z said:


> If their costs are in USD their profit rises in USD.... Make sense...




Agreed that for those predominantly mining overseas things would be somewhat better off but the local producers have to pay costs in AUD.

Funnily enough Michael Pascoe wrote an article on the subject after I raised the topic (is he lurking here? )

link: http://www.theage.com.au/business/f...old-is-well-off-its-highs-20100916-15d9r.html


----------



## explod

> This of course is fluoro red rag stuff to the gold bugs, *many of whom believe there is some intrinsic value in the yellow* metal and some of whom think capitalism is about to come to an end. But perhaps the most curious justification I've seen for buying gold was attributed to the seriously rich and eccentric Jim Rogers, that it has further to go because it's still well down on its inflation-adjusted 1980 peak of $US2300 – in which case tulip bulbs should be in for quite a surge one of these centuries.)




To pick up on Pascoe in the quote above, (my highlighting) is typical of most journo/financial gurus of our time.

For five thousand years gold has been a means of exchange for goods.  If you wanted a pig once you had to trade something, perhaps a bag of spuds.  Eventually, if you were the local medical man, that was found wanting so gold became the medium as it was rare and it was a tangible good of exchange.  That is not the case with paper money, it can be easily printed and when things are tough (like now in the US) the value is diluted by over printing.  Just like the issue of new shares, it dilutes the overall value.

Gold will continue to rise whilst we have quatitative easings, stimulus programms and excessive borrowing by governments.   It is time that financial journalists faced up to reality IMHO

However I have always had respect for Pascoe and learnt a lot from his commentaries, he is just doing his job and part of that is to maintain the status quo;   and I do not think that the popular press would print some of the real truths anyway.

However, I do think down the track that panic is going to be a problem because few understand the real danger that the US Federal Reserve is bringing upon us.   Herd sentiment will be the problem and gold as they are seeeing it will overshoot above current expectations IMHO.


----------



## Mr Z

ASFASF said:


> Agreed that for those predominantly mining overseas things would be somewhat better off but the local producers have to pay costs in AUD.
> 
> Funnily enough Michael Pascoe wrote an article on the subject after I raised the topic (is he lurking here? )
> 
> link: http://www.theage.com.au/business/f...old-is-well-off-its-highs-20100916-15d9r.html





The locals are discounted... some are cheaper than when gold was $600... FWIW.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> To pick up on Pascoe in the quote above, (my highlighting) is typical of most journo/financial gurus of our time.




Pascoe isn't even a starter when it comes to gold, he just does not get it at all. To equate gold going up with the end of capitalism is as simplistically naive as it gets. The guy, like some many of his colleagues, has no idea about money, what it is, how and why it works. They get it at a high level but their foundational understanding of money is zip.

10 years Mr Pascoe, compounding at 17%... you find another investment that has done that! :


----------



## iced earth

_*GOLD- WEEKLY CHART:18 SEPT 2010:*_

Bullish H&S with the target around  1331 $. Also uptrend channel with higher target...


----------



## Mr Z

Are we ready for a short breather?


----------



## Logique

iced earth said:


> *Bullish H&S with the target around  1331 $. Also uptrend channel with higher target...*



*Many thanks for the chart Iced earth. Like Mr Z I've been wondering what to do from here.

Found this article, one of many similar others out there:   http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wieg_cor/roger_sept132010.html Sept13, 2010 - interesting long term price history charts for gold and silver there.

So we read everything with a critical faculty, and the author is a clear gold bull, but what are we to make of articles like this? And surely we'll see a breather some time? 

(My bolds).



http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wieg_cor/roger_sept132010.html Sept13, 2010 
A September Surprise Is Coming...As Stunningly Stupid Politics Spreads...If you study the weekly 30-year bond chart and review trading action in the December bond futures, Mr. Market is telling us this game has more than a tummy ache. It’s got food poisoning...........

.....So now the Federal Reserve crowd and New York global banksters will be holding capital that turns to zero-as in wiped out. Do you really think there will be buyers for bonds when the credit and bond markets crash? This is going to be breath-taking indeed. You don’t even have to buy tickets. This is going to be the super bowl of all crashes. The national bonds of Greece and their neighbors crash first; then those in junk bond land follow.....

.....Now, more than ever, it is important to take the immediate necessary precautions to protect yourself and your families and friends. Traders and investors should be buying precious metals and select shares right now....Meanwhile, you can never go wrong buying physical precious metals and holding them for security. We’ve had a constant run of nearly ten years in gold rising 15% per year so this remains a good trade. In the last twelve months, gold rallied over 34% and is going ever faster. 

It’s not going to stop any time soon. In fact, we predict those annual percentages will rise even more and this offers a chance, arriving only once in 25 years on the historical cycles.
		
Click to expand...


*


----------



## nukz

I'm certain gold is a bubble, its being sold in vending machines in Dubai and these gold sellers have just popped up all over the place and we are all being told to move into gold. This is basiclly the story of a bubble, but who knows how long it will last.

In the U.S you don't want to move into stocks yet, realestate has still not bottomed out yet so that leaves that idea, you have government and corporate bonds.... please... 

So you have physical commodities I'm not sure where else you can park your investment unless we are talking just cash. 

I am invested in gold and silver myself(physical not ETF) but when i see these story's appearing in mainstream media to get into gold I'm starting to think it may be time to consider positions...

Mind you our real estate bubble has still not yet burst yet.. that is going to be one big one when it crashes.


----------



## So_Cynical

nukz said:


> I'm certain gold is a bubble, its being sold in vending machines in Dubai and these gold sellers have just popped up all over the place and we are all being told to move into gold. This is basiclly the story of a bubble, but who knows how long it will last.
> 
> I am invested in gold and silver myself(physical not ETF) but when i see these story's appearing in mainstream media to get into gold I'm starting to think it may be time to consider positions...




Its a ETF bubble as that's where all the additional demand is coming from, a true speculation bubble....timing the exit will be all important.



explod said:


> However, I do think down the track that panic is going to be a problem because few understand the real danger that the US Federal Reserve is bringing upon us.   Herd sentiment will be the problem and gold as they are seeeing it will overshoot above current expectations IMHO.




We really haven't seen a spectacular over shoot yet...not even close IMO.


----------



## robusta

Mr Z said:


> Pascoe isn't even a starter when it comes to gold, he just does not get it at all. To equate gold going up with the end of capitalism is as simplistically naive as it gets. The guy, like some many of his colleagues, has no idea about money, what it is, how and why it works. They get it at a high level but their foundational understanding of money is zip.
> 
> 10 years Mr Pascoe, compounding at 17%... you find another investment that has done that! :




Ok I have no idea on gold as well but show me a anothe 10 years at 17% and I will be really impressed.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> We really haven't seen a spectacular over shoot yet...not even close IMO.




Was not referring to the near term.   However, on the current growing sentiment, when real gold fever hits it will be interesting.

Very few are really into gold yet.  Since 2002 it has gone up 18% compounded that is 324% and silver in the same period 364%.

The general investment community is beginning to take notice as it appears more now in the daily press.  When they begin to get on board that will be one thijng but when every man and his dog begins to scrable for it that will be quite another matter.   

It is well worth reading up on the history of gold as money, if you are thinking of investing in it then that sort of study and understaning in my view is essential.  Anyone contemplating gold for investment ought to read (scan) thier way through this entire thread.  Many of the questions raised in the last day or so are well answered within.

The statistics above are courtesy "The Privateer" newsletter.   I have no association with it but my subscription to it was one of the best financial decisions I have ever made.   Worth downloading a free introductory copy if you want the current and real financial picture on currencies and gold.


----------



## nukz

I'm not sure about this but i heard Soros owns something like 80% of all the gold contracts out there. Also as far as physical gold goes i thought the Rothschild's almost owned all of it and have been controlling the price for century's.


----------



## explod

The following article by Jim Rogers via the Kitco web page gives a good and straight forward summation on where gold is heading and why.  In particular the paper money being printed.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html


----------



## So_Cynical

explod said:


> The following article by Jim Rogers via the Kitco web page gives a good and straight forward summation on where gold is heading and why.  In particular the paper money being printed.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html




Rogers is hardly a source to be taken seriously...he's a 1000g/t Gold bug.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Rogers is hardly a source to be taken seriously...he's a 1000g/t Gold bug.




So am I, as are most sensible investors, by having this type of insurance in the portfolio.

Rather than attack the man on what you percieve to be his reputation, how about disecting the faults within the article itself.

Gold has been the best passive investment of this new century and for some reason a number of people dont' like it, why ?


----------



## So_Cynical

explod said:


> So am I, as are most sensible investors, by having this type of insurance in the portfolio.




Oh come on Expold...the only gold exposure most sensible and non sensible investors have is BHP.



explod said:


> Rather than attack the man on what you percieve to be his reputation, how about disecting the faults within the article itself.




Spoken like a true bug 



explod said:


> Gold has been the best passive investment of this new century and *for some reason a number of people dont' like it, why ?*




I'm not one of those people..i jumped on the gold train at about $650 and have enjoyed the ride (the GFC and deleveraging turned out to be the best bit ) however im not a bug, im an investor that saw an opportunity and have followed that for over 3 years....i know this runaway gold train will eventually be derailed, this will not be a calculated, orderly pull into the station when its all over...it will be a full on derailment.

We are in the early to mid stages of a ETF gold bubble...all the additional demand is coming from ETF investors and speculators, when they decide to start unwinding there positions is gona be ugly...and i want to be in cash when that happens, ready to buy back in at the bottom....unfortunately for the bugs they wont be.


----------



## explod

> I'm not one of those people..i jumped on the gold train at about $650 and have enjoyed the ride (the GFC and deleveraging turned out to be the best bit ) however im not a bug, im an investor that saw an opportunity and have followed that for over 3 years....i know this runaway gold train will eventually be derailed, this will not be a calculated, orderly pull into the station when its all over...it will be a full on derailment.




Absolutely agree and have done almost exactly the same thing.

So you must be a bug too s.c.     Just thought I'd give you a little extra one there champ.



> We are in the early to mid stages of a ETF gold bubble...all the additional demand is coming from ETF investors and speculators, when they decide to start unwinding there positions is gona be ugly...and i want to be in cash when that happens, ready to buy back in at the bottom....unfortunately for the bugs they wont be.




And dont' you think collectively (those that have been following it) will know when that time comes.  

Cooommmmorrrn there So Cynical, what are you really on about ?


----------



## Logique

I read that article by Jim Rogers. I had been nervous that it looked overdone for the near term. 

Rogers (although a gold bug) thinks any bubbly-ness is years away, so I've calmed down a bit.


> http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html
> ...During gold’s hysterical phase, which Rogers said could take place *in 5 to 7 years*; everyone will be buying the yellow metal, he said...


----------



## So_Cynical

Logique said:


> I read that article by Jim Rogers. I had been nervous that it looked overdone for the near term.
> 
> Rogers (although a gold bug) thinks any bubbly-ness is years away, so I've calmed down a bit.






> http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html
> ...During *gold’s hysterical phase, which Rogers said could take place in 5 to 7 years*; everyone will be buying the yellow metal, he said...




Ok so lets say the bubblyness is 6 years away...in the last 6 years gold's gone from $400 to $1250 a 205% increase (approx) so if the % uptrend of the last 6 years is to continue for another 6 years that would give us a gold price of around $3800.

Not totally out of the question except that the gold/oil ratio would have oil at over $250 a barrel and the assorted Gold ETF's holding prob 50% of all the above ground gold....as it is now the Gold ETF's are the 5th or 6th biggest holder of physical....the bubble will burst long before they get to #1 IMO anyway.


----------



## explod

So_Cynical said:


> Ok so lets say the bubblyness is 6 years away...in the last 6 years gold's gone from $400 to $1250 a 205% increase (approx) so if the % uptrend of the last 6 years is to continue for another 6 years that would give us a gold price of around $3800.
> 
> Not totally out of the question except that the gold/oil ratio would have oil at over $250 a barrel and the assorted Gold ETF's holding prob 50% of all the above ground gold....as it is now the Gold ETF's are the 5th or 6th biggest holder of physical....the bubble will burst long before they get to #1 IMO anyway.




It is the sheer demand that will send it up.  Many do not factor in the point that only .05% of investors are into gold at all.  If you were to put this alongside say BHP, which on a world scale within all markets, though small, would still be greater than that number.

So if interest was to go up by 20 times it would still be only 1%.  With gold now getting onto the world radar screen, because most other passive investments are doing little more than going sideways, then you may have a very interesting situation.

Worth a few thoughts.  Interesting times.


----------



## explod

Further to our discussion yesterday, the growing demand by investors to hoard physical gold is overwhelming the shorts.

Via the GATA web site:    http://www.gata.org/node/9044


----------



## Whiskers

The POG currently about $US1,293. 

If it closes closer to 1,280 than 1,300 in the US tonight, I'm tipping the top is in again for some time. 

Anyone game to bet against me?


----------



## Edwood

nope 

(c/- Cliff D by the way)


----------



## Ageo

Whiskers said:


> The POG currently about $US1,293.
> 
> If it closes closer to 1,280 than 1,300 in the US tonight, I'm tipping the top is in again for some time.
> 
> Anyone game to bet against me?




Doesnt make a difference if this AUD keeps climbing.......


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> The POG currently about $US1,293.
> 
> If it closes closer to 1,280 than 1,300 in the US tonight, I'm tipping the top is in again for some time.
> 
> Anyone game to bet against me?




Not a betting man, just trend following.  This is a strong trend and reckon only a very brave man would stand in the way of it.

I do think a pull back tonight, now that they have the (world) audience watching, but will continue up in the weeks ahead.


----------



## Joules MM1

...... those who dont trade must be columnists

boardering on humour

first the hindenburg omen and now this.....


http://www.businessinsider.com/the-springsteen-omen-2010-9


	:headshake


----------



## Whiskers

explod said:


> Not a betting man, just trend following.  This is a strong trend and reckon only a very brave man would stand in the way of it.
> 
> I do think a pull back tonight, now that they have the (world) audience watching, but will continue up in the weeks ahead.




Yeah, too strong for my liking Explod, mostly just on the back of the low USD exchange rate.

 I'm thinking... (actually, I had a vision while that damn Benny Hinn program and his 'Faith Healing' was going on in the background. I should have changed channels when the games finished!)  and did a detail EW count of this since I'm all in cash as of last week and need the (share) market to correct a bit to get back into it at good prices. 

If my analysis is correct... I pray, may the lord make my analysis correct : ... the POG will whiplash back towards 1,000 as wave 'c' pans out in the next few weeks or so.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, too strong for my liking Explod, mostly just on the back of the low USD exchange rate.




That sounds a bit like a gut feel there Whiskers.  I do not rust my gut anymore, just go with the flow and tag along whilst it does.  Gold and silver are doing just that.

Hoping for a *big dip *to get back on maybe a bit late too.

And the $US, yes its all about the dollar and paper money.  And they have to continue to print more to keep their heads above the water and whilst they do, gold can only continue its rise.

And on the charts, James Turk's take is straight forward and on the money.  However there is nothing in this that has not been pointed out by ASF's on this thread many times over the years.  And note the rising/increasing upward curve.   The angle has a long way to go before we arrive at the steep angle which blew off in 1980.   The bullion story is only just getting underway.

http://www.fgmr.com/nothing-scary-about-these-charts.html


----------



## Dome

As soon as I decide to get into Gold it will drop like a lead baloon.


----------



## Buckfont

Came across a mob called Surbiton Gold Reports. Their web page is un responsive so can find no further info. They ask for $440 pa. subscription.

Does anyone have any experience. Just curious.Thanx. Bf


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> That sounds a bit like a gut feel there Whiskers.  I do not rust my gut anymore, just go with the flow and tag along whilst it does.  Gold and silver are doing just that.
> 
> Hoping for a *big dip *to get back on maybe a bit late too.
> 
> And the $US, yes its all about the dollar and paper money.  And they have to continue to print more to keep their heads above the water and whilst they do, gold can only continue its rise.
> 
> And on the charts, James Turk's take is straight forward and on the money.  However there is nothing in this that has not been pointed out by ASF's on this thread many times over the years.  And note the rising/increasing upward curve.   The angle has a long way to go before we arrive at the steep angle which blew off in 1980.   The bullion story is only just getting underway.
> 
> http://www.fgmr.com/nothing-scary-about-these-charts.html




Hi Explod, good to see you keeping the gold vindication flag flying 

Not much noise from the doubters these days!

Although I'm not sure gold is going up for the correct reasons - yet. Currently too aligned to the vagaries of the general stock market - ie the flows of capital to the flavour of the day - and gold is currently on trend so we get the cashed up 'follow the trend' crowd, which is 'normal'. What I'd like to see is a decent equities market pull back (which is imminent - up 200 points on a services report?? yet ignore the manufacturing report last week!!), and a 'flight to safety' into the $US (or $Bernakes as I call them now) and still see gold go up. We haven't had that test yet, and there's still the exit of the trend momentum traders out of gold to contend with. 

Going with the flow.........where nothing makes any sense - again. 
You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!


----------



## TabJockey

Uncle Festivus said:


> You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!




Haha. So true.


----------



## Southern X

Well fellas, haven't posted here since around the seasonal time when gold broke out of its short-term down-trend. Now it seems we are watching Au break-out.

Thought it would go up, but realistically, not like this!

What follows is for those here who still have at least one foot still on the ground:

What use are charts when there is NO RESISTANCE?!

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20101005.html

What are we to use? Fibs? Bollie Bands? Trend-lines? Me, a combination of tea leaves, coffee grounds and chicken entrails, with a nod to ABC's Allan "Look at ME!" Kohler (when that d-head says buy Au, then I'm nervous).

I like the thoughts of monitoring in-take/out-take of precious metals ETFs. Further, I like this opinion (from numerous sources): 

Assuming this recent move in no way is the daughter of the mother of all spikes c1979-1980, then I believe this blow off is just that, a blow off. A sharp correction would then be imminent. Its duration would be short. It would provide a gift as far as an entry point, or to reload goes. 

Southern X

PS Knew Roger's is a commodity expert, but never knew he was a goldbug. Has he been co-opted by the goldbugs? 

PPS Now where did I put my tin foil hat...


----------



## electronicmaster

Southern X said:


> Well fellas, haven't posted here since around the seasonal time when gold broke out of its short-term down-trend. Now it seems we are watching Au break-out.
> 
> Thought it would go up, but realistically, not like this!
> 
> What follows is for those here who still have at least one foot still on the ground:
> 
> What use are charts when there is NO RESISTANCE?!
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20101005.html
> 
> What are we to use? Fibs? Bollie Bands? Trend-lines? Me, a combination of tea leaves, coffee grounds and chicken entrails, with a nod to ABC's Allan "Look at ME!" Kohler (when that d-head says buy Au, then I'm nervous).
> 
> I like the thoughts of monitoring in-take/out-take of precious metals ETFs. Further, I like this opinion (from numerous sources):
> 
> Assuming this recent move in no way is the daughter of the mother of all spikes c1979-1980, then I believe this blow off is just that, a blow off. A sharp correction would then be imminent. Its duration would be short. It would provide a gift as far as an entry point, or to reload goes.
> 
> Southern X
> 
> PS Knew Roger's is a commodity expert, but never knew he was a goldbug. Has he been co-opted by the goldbugs?
> 
> PPS Now where did I put my tin foil hat...





Use the Fibs.  And use the fundamentals on what is happening around the world today. 

We are in a global economic collapse.  even if the media says "Every thing is fine and gold is in a Bubble."

The USD is about to become worthless by up to 50%  And the rest of the world will devalue their currency (as 25 or so countries already have, in the past two weeks) .


----------



## explod

Southern X said:


> Well fellas, haven't posted here since around the seasonal time when gold broke out of its short-term down-trend. Now it seems we are watching Au break-out.




You either dont' read or take in the full content of recent posts.

Its all about currencies ole pal.   No need for a tin hat either, you will only get help around here.

And David Potts gave it a very big thumbs down a couple of weeks back (two page spread in The Age), which has sent it balistic since.

It seems a journo's job is to try to trip up the mugs.    They have no power against the bugs.


----------



## Mr Z

Typically we are due for a correction around this time of year, we are certainly short term overbought enough to warrant one. As for a mid term top I'd not be expecting one until Jan 2011, possibly as late as May. Watch the monthly POG chart Full STO.


----------



## Ageo

Well today i bought @ 1380 and 30seconds later i went to hedge my price and it was 1368 lol. AUD went from .97 - .98 range very quickly.....

Personally im waiting for the AUD retracement to kick in which shouldnt be too far away.


----------



## electronicmaster

Ageo said:


> Personally im waiting for the AUD retracement to kick in which shouldnt be too far away.





Yea, it will happen, not over night but it will happen.  

If it doesn't?  They will let the prime minister open her mouth or Chinas Real Estate starts to burst its bubble creating a Banking credit freeze.

No problems


----------



## Whiskers

electronicmaster said:


> Yea, it will happen, *not over night *but it will happen.
> 
> If it doesn't?  They will let the prime minister to open her mouth or Chinas Real Estate starts to burst its bubble creating a Banking credit freez.
> 
> No problems




It just might... a big blowoff top in the making!?

The USD/JPY may be the 'star' to watch... plumeted to 82.23... lowest since about 1995 when it momentarily went sub 80 before a sharp recovery.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> It just might... a big blowoff top in the making!?




Could you give some reasons for that Whiskers and Ageo.

Gold is in a very steady uptrend, reflecting not only US$ devaluation but very much uncertainty in financials across the board.   There has never been such widespread currency/debt problems (*ever*.

The gold chart of the last 60 days does not suggest a blow off top, just a continued steady rise.  Team this with current financial fundamentals and in my view gold has only one way to continue till these problems; are first admitted and second something done about them.


----------



## explod

To do a comparison of the current uptrend and its potential we are in new territory so it occurred to me to post up the following two charts so that we may discuss possibilites.

Both of these charts are from the Webpage of "The Privateer" newsletter.  I will post full acknowledgements on a final post of three for this present.

What we are looking at here is the uptrend in glod for the two years, 1977/78.  I liken this chart to our current situation 2009/10


----------



## explod

1980 was the blow off top but notice the angle in early December of 1979.  I contend that we are nowhere near to that now.  We may well be in the same position (as distinct from price) as was the case this date (early October) 1979.

The Charts copied with thanks from 
The Privateer
http://www.the-privateer.com
capt@the-privateer.com
(reproduced with permission)


----------



## Logique

Nice charts Explod. 
Au at 1330 - to me looks just a reversion to established uptrend. Similar action with silver. There are enormous macroeconomic tailwinds for precious metals. 

In the background, I think it will only take one catalyst, say a sovereign credit downgrade, or poor economic announcement, or a China slowdown - to trigger a near term technical retracement in world stock markets = both a plus and a minus for prec metals stocks - near term shock for med term gain.

Precious metals bears should check an Ag chart!
With thanks to: http://www.kitcosilver.com/


----------



## nukz

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5MVsm2cpc0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6-8MizZKE

Interesting video clips, if a gold standard was at all possible gold would have to be revaulued and allot of money would be made.


----------



## explod

nukz said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5MVsm2cpc0
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6-8MizZKE
> 
> Interesting video clips, if a gold standard was at all possible gold would have to be revaulued and allot of money would be made.




Yes have noted a number of discussions on that aspect over the last couple of years.   US$5000 to the ounce would be a minimum number apparently.

Money to be real has to be redeemable in something that is real, the paper today is just an unbacked promise.  In the old world a note could not be printed unless an amount of gold with a value equal to the note denomination was put aside against it.  Or against the value of a property or other hard asset,, etc.


----------



## Ageo

explod the only reserves i have for a high gold price $2000+ is the jewellery industry.... The higher the gold price the less sales in gold jewellery (as its too expensive) and for countries like India who buy alot of gold jewellery and their jewellery is usually 22kt (supposedly anyway but i wont get into that) it makes it so much harder so inevitably they buy less.... which will effect the overall demand for gold in yrs to come (my personal opinion).....


----------



## sinner

nukz said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5MVsm2cpc0
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6-8MizZKE
> 
> Interesting video clips, if a gold standard was at all possible gold would have to be revaulued and allot of money would be made.




A lot of money would be made? Don't you mean *lost*. Gold would simply retain it's purchasing power relative to fiat! No money would be made!

Been a while since I posted on this thread, due the death of a close friend in September I haven't been able to keep up with everything I wanted to post.

Some updates: My small 10 ounce gold short around the 1249 area got taken out, as you can imagine. Not much in the way of losses, it was only a small speculative trade as stated originally.

Still holding longs in ASX:XGD companies of my choice (index of which just topped 8000, bought in 6000ish) and also a long in ASX:CXC CDI accumulated between $19 and $20.

For those who are wondering exactly what caused this latest run in the price of gold, I have my own suspicions:

Here is a quote from well known (to the bugs) gold-bug "ANOTHER" written almost exactly 13 years ago, Oct 09 1997:


> *One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!
> 
> NOTHING! *



From http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html (although I am sure that most of the bugs here know ANOTHER, FOA and FOFOA well).

An interesting comment in and of itself, however if you know the context it is quite insightful.

Anyway, what does my suspicion have to do with that quote? Well...it's all to do with the "Central Bank Gold Agreement" which since inception, had Central Banks over the world selling gold into the open market at the average yearly rate of ~390 tonnes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/central-banks-no-longer-selling-gold-duh-factor-1010

As of the 27th of September this year, CBGA is no longer in effect, in the sense that exactly as ANOTHER stated would occur: 

Central Banks are no longer selling gold!

In fact this year, they only sold 6.4 tonnes, compared to the average that is a huuuuge decline. Let's mark it out on a chart:




Central Banks stopped selling gold, and paper became relatively worthless very very quickly. Let's see what happens now. My guess is, right before the **** hits the fan all the holders of COMEX GC longs, GLD, SLV, ASX:GOLD, ASX:ETPMAG, etc will have all their holdings redeemed in cash (as it states in their respective PDS is legal!), HSBC vanishes with the precious metals and everything pops. Canary in the coal mine style, watch for forced redemptions of paper gold in worthless fiat or similar. I believe the COMEX GC contract can be legally redeemed in units of GLD!
*
ANOTHER reckons what happens next:*
Holders in gold miners will pay huge Government enforced tax to be allowed to take profit. Currencies will only be worth the gold their respective countries hold in reserves and underground (as a major producer/exporter Australia is naturally long gold, we should be grateful!). Oil/energy will be extremely expensive in gold terms.

*...and the most important one:*

As the price of gold increases, supply will dry up proportionally. The higher it goes, the less supply will be available to be sold onto the market. The opposite to all other commodities (even silver).


----------



## explod

Great post there Sinner.  

What is your rationale with silver?



> As the price of gold increases, supply will dry up proportionally. The higher it goes, the less supply will be available to be sold onto the market. The opposite to all other commodities (even silver).


----------



## nukz

sinner said:


> A lot of money would be made? Don't you mean *lost*. Gold would simply retain it's purchasing power relative to fiat! No money would be made!




Interesting, you got me there 

I actually read somewhere that JP morgan and a few other large banks own around 40% of all the shorting contracts for gold anyway which has been supressing the price for a while(possibly a similar story to that of silver).


----------



## explod

nukz said:


> Interesting, you got me there
> 
> I actually read somewhere that JP morgan and a few other large banks own around 40% of all the shorting contracts for gold anyway which has been supressing the price for a while(possibly a similar story to that of silver).




Yes that is the case, in fact the percentages on silver are thought to be higher.

As for not making anything on gold, that is absolutely correct and is a point not clearly understood.  What gold does do is that when the current financial  music stops and paper money becomes trash (as its fast doing now) in gold holdings (physical in the hand) you will still have something tangible.

Gold has a long history and is a comlplex story.   The answers can be found by skimming through this entire thread.  It is obvious that many new posters have not done that.  Any investment/insurance should be totally understood before putting your hard earned in.

And as it has done in the last few months, silver will outperform gold in the next few years ahead as its use in industry have it continually in short supply.  Throughout history, it too, has been part of monetary exchange.  Known as the poor mans gold.


----------



## skcots

explod said:


> Great post there Sinner.
> 
> What is your rationale with silver?




What he said ^^^

And yes what is your rational with silver? Is it because miners are not primarily chasing after it?
The thing is silver is generally destroyed or lost after use whereas gold is recovered. Things might change with an increase in price though.


----------



## explod

skcots said:


> What he said ^^^
> 
> And yes what is your rational with silver? Is it because miners are not primarily chasing after it?
> The thing is silver is generally destroyed or lost after use whereas gold is recovered. Things might change with an increase in price though.




He did not give any relative to silver, it was an assertion.

I did explain the silver situation from my perspective.   Yes, production/mining will increase but also as with gold the easy stuff has been claimed and new frontiers elusive.

And new discoveries or former mines take time to be brought back into production, up to 3 or 4 years and with that time frame funding now is nearly impossible.   The need to fill orders for silver contracts is immediate.

However this is not really that relevant, gold and silver has broken out and is heading north.   

The trend is your friend untill the bend, a good stop loss on gold related investments in my view is 10% but cannot see that at the moment.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> He did not give any relative to silver, it was an assertion.




What % of central banks in the world hold silver in their reserves at what % of their total reserve assets? Mexico and China still has all their pre-Communist silver holed up somewhere I'm sure. CBs are still holding gold at 10%ish, and it used to be 60%ish, that 10% will increase in a lot of value if there is a paper crisis, right?

Imagine what sort of industrial demand would exist for silver in a big recession? Would that decreased level of market consumption be greater or less than an assumed increase in investment demand?



> I did explain the silver situation from my perspective.   Yes, production/mining will increase but also as with gold the easy stuff has been claimed and new frontiers elusive.




Look, my perspective on silver is obvious, I put my my money where my mouth is on CXC and have been ranting on this forum for ages about pre-Decimal pre-1946 Australian Sterling coins for minted physical. I post gold:silver ratio chart and discussion often. I convert trading profits to a specific % in gold and silver of my total assets.

Silver is a precious metal, gold is a precious metal. But let's be under no illusions and acknowledge that they are not the same thing!



> as it has done in the last few months, silver will outperform gold in the next few years




Silly rationale. What you are essentially arguing is that higher the higher the beta coefficient to gold the better?

Let's chart the theory the "lowest dollar gold price in recent years was the afternoon fix on 20th July 1999 when gold fixed at $252.80 US equivalent at the time to £161.091 in pounds sterling" so we can pick the start of 1999 as a performance reference point:



(interesting though if you use July 13 -close to July20 as the ticker gets at that resolution- as a reference point gold is outperforming everything, even oil)

Buy gold specifically because it *isn't* high beta.


----------



## Logique

Sinner's post was complex, and I didn't understand it, but will read it again.

I did understand this article from Dr Shane Oliver of the AMP:


> http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_air.asp?a=AV&ai=18210
> 
> ..Conclusion
> The surge in global liquidity now underway is likely to provide further fuel to the next major asset bubble which is likely already in the process of forming.
> 
> Potential candidates are gold and commodity prices, emerging markets and resources shares.
> 
> But the absence of obvious overvaluation suggests *we are still in the foothills of the next bubble which likely has years to run*, with plenty of opportunities for investors in these assets in the interim.


----------



## So_Cynical

Logique said:


> Sinner's post was complex, and I didn't understand it, but will read it again.
> 
> I did understand this article from Dr Shane Oliver of the AMP:







> http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_...?a=AV&ai=18210
> 
> ..Conclusion
> The surge in global liquidity now underway is likely to provide further fuel to the next major asset bubble which is likely already in the process of forming.
> 
> Potential candidates are gold and commodity prices, emerging markets and resources shares.
> 
> But the absence of obvious overvaluation suggests we are still in the foothills of the next bubble which likely has years to run, with plenty of opportunities for investors in these assets in the interim.




I saw the bubble forming months back. 



So_Cynical said:


> *(12th-March-2010)* Just wondering if anyone is concerned about a potential ETF gold bubble...the SPDR Gold ETF is the 7th largest gold holder in the world, and the money that has flowed into that ETF could just as easily flow out when the sentiment turns....is this an issue for anyone?




i also think it could run for years, but believe it wont, investors unwinding Gold ETF positions will become an avalanche once it starts...the next big bottom could well be a gold/commodity's bottom.


----------



## explod

> What % of central banks in the world hold silver in their reserves at what % of their total reserve assets? Mexico and China still has all their pre-Communist silver holed up somewhere I'm sure. CBs are still holding gold at 10%ish, and it used to be 60%ish, that 10% will increase in a lot of value if there is a paper crisis, right?
> 
> Imagine what sort of industrial demand would exist for silver in a big recession? Would that decreased level of market consumption be greater or less than an assumed increase in investment demand?




So we are also talking about a recession now?  In fact one of the main use in computers and phones is but a small quantity in each and the 3 billion people across India and China will still want thier's, and that in my view will be exponentially.

We are both talking basically in the anecdotal.  CBs no longer make public their audits on gold holdings.  I do not know but some say most have sold it all and the ending of sales merely signals the end of many holdings.   There are some reports that CBs are part of the buying, but we do not really know.

On silver we will see as time pans out. I did not say they were the same thing but they are certainly both very sound alternatives to cash in the currency crisis and they are a part (but yes in intoto) of the main four precious metals as distinct from commodities.   My 1966 silver 50c pieces have almost doubled in value in 2 years. 



> Silly rationale. What you are essentially arguing is that higher the higher the beta coefficient to gold the better?
> 
> Let's chart the theory the "lowest dollar gold price in recent years was the afternoon fix on 20th July 1999 when gold fixed at $252.80 US equivalent at the time to £161.091 in pounds sterling" so we can pick the start of 1999 as a performance reference point:




In this I am referring to the current ratio of 60/1.   It has been as low as 20/1and in a market looking more and more for physical delivery (which for silver bars has stretched out to months, when three years ago it was less than a week) a good case can be made for the ratio to go at least back to 40/1.

*But we just do not know*.  I'm just saying we should not write it off out of hand, and this was the original point, from where I sit, in our discussion this evening.


----------



## explod

> So Cynical:
> 
> i also think it could run for years, but believe it wont, investors unwinding Gold ETF positions will become an avalanche once it starts...the next big bottom could well be a gold/commodity's bottom




Doubts have emerged on the actual holdings of ETFs which has caused some departures.

Why do you believe there will be an avalanche once it starts in this area ?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Doubts have emerged on the actual holdings of ETFs which has caused some departures.
> 
> Why do you believe there will be an avalanche once it starts in this area ?




Personally I believe that when the crunch time comes the _only_ true way to take advantage of the gold trade is to have physical in your hot little hands. NO other form will hold up. Even shares of gold companies will be useless because the authorities will simply shut these markets down, literally overnight. Un-allocated holdings will simply be left _unallocated_. The structure and market that ETF's are traded in will determine if you make, or get back, your money on these instruments? 

Now if the government then outlaws the holding or trading of gold bullion then we get back to year 1 - a whole new ball game?

The current gold price is making me nervous (not enough to make me sell my bullion though). Could be a correction which will sort the wheat from the chaff, coinciding with an equities sell off,  before the last event starts, just don't know when??


----------



## nukz

From my technical analysis the bottom for the USD will happen around 7/12/2010 then it will rebound for a short while before starting to head back down again and it should then break below its previous low. 

It's quite hard to tell right now because all this money printing is distorting the market abit.

I did actully move into physical gold/silver a little while back after hearing rumours about ETF's i guess its better to have it in your hand than on paper. 

If there is any drop in gold generally i try and use CFD's to hedge my positions. Hopefully i'm smart enough to get in at the right time. 

Overall though i do see a very bright future for gold and the simple reason is because i see a very bleak future for the USD.


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Now if the government then outlaws the holding or trading of gold bullion then we get back to year 1 - a whole new ball game?




Interesting post Uncle.   In the trading of bullion, are you here refering to the paper trading as distinct from physical dealing ?

My leaning towards physical silver holdings, including some silver coins, result from concerns along those expressed by you here.  What is your take on this rationale ?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Interesting post Uncle.   In the trading of bullion, are you here refering to the paper trading as distinct from physical dealing ?
> 
> My leaning towards physical silver holdings, including some silver coins, result from concerns along those expressed by you here.  What is your take on this rationale ?




Only _trade_ the pretend gold markets eg cfd's, but accumulate physical ie bullion on the dips. 

I think it was Sinner who put forward some postulations on possible scenarios for the markets and gold, so I was thinking that the so called gfc was a rehearsal for what is about to happen because of the currency wars between the US & China, and the imminent implosion of China either from it's very own various bubbles or from continued trade sanctions from the US. It's always been a race to the bottom for fiat currencies and combined with cheap (slave) labour from the so called developing countries means that the developed countries have no chance of producing stuff to be consumed externally because their manufacturing costs are to high, relative to places like China, India etc, where even they are now being outsourced to even cheaper places like Vietnam.

They still think it's a matter of pumping the system with helicopter drops of fresh $USD's but the problems are structural now because of the globalisation of cheap labour, and in the case of the USA, cheap credit to fund living beyond their means? Actually Aus is in that basket now too, only we haven't had our days of reckoning yet?

It's going to get nasty, so keep liquid & have a plan to accumulate real money - not that I have to point out the obvious to you Explod


----------



## Ageo

What amazes me about this country is no bank (in NSW anyway) will take gold as collateral for any loan..... i mean it is by far the best form of security then anything else bar nothing (liquidate in 1 day) unlike real estate which fkn takes forever.

I still think the world as no idea on gold and its uses as another form of currency etc.... 

Name any *physical item *on earth where you can move millions of dollars worth in a matter of a couple of days anywhere in the world?

Precious Metals and in particular gold/silver....  

Problem is people perceive gold like diamonds "luxury's but thats not true as luxury's are items of creativity/style and rarity. Gold/silver isnt so, they are currency (as they were many yrs ago) and the sooner people get their head around it the better it will be for the metal.


----------



## sinner

I want to revisit this post...



explod said:


> So we are also talking about a recession now?  In fact one of the main use in computers and phones is but a small quantity in each and the 3 billion people across India and China will still want thier's, and that in my view will be exponentially.




Err no, we are not talking about a recession, *I* was referring the possibility of a recession as the sort of event which it can be seen visibly separates silver from gold!



> We are both talking basically in the anecdotal.  CBs no longer make public their audits on gold holdings.  I do not know but some say most have sold it all and the ending of sales merely signals the end of many holdings.   There are some reports that CBs are part of the buying, but we do not really know.




Sure, explod, CBs no longer make public their audit on gold holdings. So what? We know they don't hold silver, but they do hold gold! That isn't anecdotal in the slightest.



> On silver we will see as time pans out. I did not say they were the same thing but they are certainly both very sound alternatives to cash in the currency crisis and they are a part (but yes in intoto) of the main four precious metals as distinct from commodities.   My 1966 silver 50c pieces have almost doubled in value in 2 years.




You have a habit of conflating true statements with anecdotes as evidence. If I had bought copper 2 years ago my pieces would be worth more than double your silver. Does that mean I should have bought copper? 



> In this I am referring to the current ratio of 60/1.   It has been as low as 20/1and in a market looking more and more for physical delivery (which for silver bars has stretched out to months, when three years ago it was less than a week) a good case can be made for the ratio to go at least back to 40/1.




Will revisit the ratio charts at the end of the month, but interesting things are clearly happening in terms of "things priced in ounces of gold".


----------



## explod

> Sinner:Sure, explod, CBs no longer make public their audit on gold holdings. So what? We know they don't hold silver, but they do hold gold! That isn't anecdotal in the slightest




How do you know that they hold any gold at all ?



> You have a habit of conflating true statements with anecdotes as evidence. If I had bought copper 2 years ago my pieces would be worth more than double your silver. Does that mean I should have bought copper?




Anectotal it maybe, but silver has true value, paper does not. Copper fine, I do save that in physical form too.  Anything but bonds, savings in the bank or term deposits for me.

Anecdotes you say in essence are not true ?

*Evidence*, you have not presented either I might add.



> Err no, we are not talking about a recession, I was referring the possibility of a recession as the sort of event which it can be seen visibly separates silver from gold!




Agree with you, but in this context it will not in my view, silver will be seen equally with gold, and as you avered,  copper and there will be some other tangibles that come into it too.  Why ?, because they are wealth in the hand, paper will be trash and is heading for the dustbin by the day..


----------



## Agentm




----------



## Ageo

Agentm said:


>





Thats nothing more than Gold Buyers Australia here but that "Gold Promise" company has Mr T as their endorser 

problem is they pay way below market value..... and to be honest any idiot that sends gold in the mail to sell is asking for trouble.


----------



## Agentm

Ageo said:


> Thats nothing more than Gold Buyers Australia here but that "Gold Promise" company has Mr T as their endorser
> 
> problem is they pay way below market value..... and to be honest any idiot that sends gold in the mail to sell is asking for trouble.




i recently had a gold item valued for a relative by very good jeweller i have known for years, his price was pretty accurate. i met up  with my relative at a shopping centre and happened to see one of those gold buying booths,,  i asked them to weigh and value it.. 20% of what i had just had the item valued at was all i was offered..

to get the booth and pay for the floor space on these major shopping centres they sure have to lower the value of the gold.. 

i politely told the stunning chick how inaccurate by weight their scales were on the gold.. and told her the real value by weight alone.. 

i must admit she was getting pretty excited about getting that piece off me, and i could see why.. but i think anyone selling to them is really getting screwed big time..


----------



## electronicmaster

Agentm said:


>






lol, The media is still trying to stop people from buying gold.  

You don't see them putting a bad name to any other investment that truly is in a bubble.   Nope,  they like to encourage people to invest in the bubble phase.


----------



## Southern X

For now I'm watching the USD. It is hugely oversold in a very crowded trade, ie short USD long commodities (or as Jim Rogers is famous as saying, "buy anything that if you drop it on your foot hurts").

I'm also anxious about the US financial system and its patent inability to evidentially show WHO owns the real estate, be it residential or commercial. In this regard IF a crash is triggered EVERYTHING will come tumbling down as the USD counter-intuitively rockets UP. If that scenario occurs I will sell half and reload at lower prices because I believe, to understate the case, Au will catch a bid.

Still long and strong in the Yukon. Go Atac, TSX-V:ATC!

SX


----------



## Whiskers

Southern X said:


> For now I'm watching the USD. It is hugely oversold in a very crowded trade, ie short USD long commodities (or as Jim Rogers is famous as saying, "buy anything that if you drop it on your foot hurts").
> 
> *I'm also anxious about the US financial system and its patent inability to evidentially show WHO owns the real estate, be it residential or commercial. In this regard IF a crash is triggered EVERYTHING will come tumbling down as the USD counter-intuitively rockets UP.* If that scenario occurs I will sell half and reload at lower prices because I believe, to understate the case, Au will catch a bid.
> 
> Still long and strong in the Yukon. Go Atac, TSX-V:ATC!
> 
> SX




Me too. There seems to be more pressure on US banks to step-up reposessions again after a bit of a reprieve, to balster their cash requirements. I can only presume if those reposessions get slowed down further by legal actions or regulation, then their only recourse for cash in the short term is to liquidate other 'Ã­nvestments' such as gold, equities and those investment abroard chasing better interest and foreign exchange returns. 

I suspect the tension has built up a bit too much and is about to unleash  pretty quickly.

Potential H&S would send it back to 1,270ish pretty quickly.


----------



## Edwood

Whiskers said:


> Potential H&S would send it back to 1,270ish pretty quickly.




yep agree with you Whiskers, looks to be confirmed and has tested the underside of the neckline this morning


----------



## Southern X

It looks like Au is right at the low end of the up trend which began at July's end. NOT GOOD.

The USD rallying? Looks more like a blip now, but it's technically overdue for a rally/bounce. NOT GOOD.

A bad week, barely holding near term support. NOT GOOD.

I'll chime in with whiskers and edwood at a possible $1270 if $1300 is decisively broken. IF $1270ish snaps I'm thinking $1240. However, I may take a partial position (always equities) at $1270 and, if-if-if Au reaches $1240 fill up. Mind you with a tightish stop loss.

Long term nothing has changed: UP UP UP!

Forewarned is forearmed. Keep some powder dry.

SX


----------



## Mr Z

It is on trend now. The next few sessions will tell us if it is likely to hold. Other indications at the moment suggest that it has a good chance of holding here. We will see. Otherwise we may correct for a short while, not out of place at this time of year. Then we will set up for a good run into the year end. That is if we do indeed correct... for gold, so far, this is noise.


----------



## explod

Notice a few taking positions.   It is not a betting game in my view.

Gold has run a very long way in a short time and is overdue for a spell and perhaps a bit of a correction.  It found firm support last night so my view is that it will consolidate around the US$1320 level for a week or two and then be away again.

Gold is not going up, currencies are going down so the paper value is changing.  The huge currency problems are not being resolved and the noise suggests the noise will become much louder in the next week or two.  There will be some continued fear on currencies that will translate into the purchase of US dollars as its safe haven status seems to dictate these days.  However the rund for real value will change that game soon  IMO.

In the history of gold the bull run chart has been described as the climbing of a wall of worry.   The newcomers believe in the beginning then wonder if it is too good to be true.    It is no big deal but I encourage you all , if you have not done so, to read the history of gold, understand and do the sums and enjoy knowing that your wealth is being preseved when in all other financial areas there is nothing but doubt and turmoil.


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> Now if the government then outlaws the holding or trading of gold bullion then we get back to year 1 - a whole new ball game?




Apparently the laws are on the books to allow for confiscation of Australians gold. The only thing that is required are triggering conditions, basically for the government to decide it is required. It is a simple as that... silver however is a different kettle of fish. There is an article authored by a Perth Mint employee on it floating around the web.

I doubt it will ever be used BUT it is interesting that they bothered to make provision for it.


----------



## explod

The following is a very good explanation of the overall situation for gold going forward:

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles archive/2010.10.22 Gold unallocated.htm


----------



## explod

Gold unusually strong out of the blocks for a Monday and confirms a solid gathering of buyers on the dip last week.  Thought we may have a week or two's consolidation at that level but perhaps we are going past tipping point now.

G20 on currencies at the weekend done and dusted, just more blah blah blah and did I hears someone say last week ditty ditty, agree with that too.

And gold, as we have harped on for years now, is all about currencies folks, particularly the weakening US$.   Aussie$ back at .9925 today in a heartbeat from last weeks drop.  So much for the unanimous G20 pledge to rein it all in.

Got gold or silver?, need to get some physical fast now IMHO.

Robots, have my capitalist hat on today, go down to Wright's and buy some of those 1966 silver 50 cents coins, just a short tram ride for you and you will thank me forever.  Of course I am not qualified to give advice and know you would not take it from a slight/leftie anyway.


----------



## Southern X

explod said:


> Notice a few taking positions.   It is not a betting game in my view.
> 
> Gold has run a very long way in a short time and is overdue for a spell and perhaps a bit of a correction.  It found firm support last night so my view is that it will consolidate around the US$1320 level for a week or two and then be away again.
> 
> Gold is not going up, currencies are going down so the paper value is changing.  The huge currency problems are not being resolved and the noise suggests the noise will become much louder in the next week or two.  There will be some continued fear on currencies that will translate into the purchase of US dollars as its safe haven status seems to dictate these days.  However the rund for real value will change that game soon  IMO.
> 
> In the history of gold the bull run chart has been described as the climbing of a wall of worry.   The newcomers believe in the beginning then wonder if it is too good to be true.    It is no big deal but I encourage you all , if you have not done so, to read the history of gold, understand and do the sums and enjoy knowing that your wealth is being preseved when in all other financial areas there is nothing but doubt and turmoil.




Very well said, explod. I agree with all points except your second sentence where you don't see Au as a betting game. That, though, is just a matter of mind set or trading style.

With a SOLID long term trend UP I'm now concentrating on dips/corrections to determine entry points (only equities, eg. SSP:TSX). Support now at $1275-$1280.

I'm firmly in the camp of, "It's NEVER different this time." That said I believe we'll see an enormous flow of capital into the USD if there's a stock market crash. Therefore USD up, Au down. This won't last nearly as long as 2008, but it will provide a (last?) golden opportunity to buy before a spike to $????.

Concentrating on dips; keeping powder dry; looking for wealth creation!

SX


----------



## explod

> Robots, have my capitalist hat on today, go down to Wright's and buy some of those 1966 silver 50 cents coins, just a short tram ride for you and you will thank me forever. Of course I am not qualified to give advice and know you would not take it from a slight/leftie anyway.




If you were able to get down the street today Robots you are up almost 1% on those coins already.

Nice clear sunny day here working on the vegie patch.  Aussie$ at .9961.  Could we hit parity tonight.   Probably get a whack at 0800 NY time, lets see.


----------



## Southern X

Talk about USD strength!

http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2010/10/25/us-treasury-draws-negative-yield-for-the-first-time/

Guaranteed to give one LESS money than one puts in!

Holy guacamole. Is something beginning here; something that has the same stench as 2008? A take down of Au to $1250-$1275 with an accompanying rally of the USD? Even against the background of CFTC regulatory changes dictated by the Dodd-Frank law.

Keeping powder dry for this possible scenario. 

SX


----------



## explod

Southern X said:


> Talk about USD strength!
> 
> http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2010/10/25/us-treasury-draws-negative-yield-for-the-first-time/
> 
> Guaranteed to give one LESS money than one puts in!
> 
> Holy guacamole. Is something beginning here; something that has the same stench as 2008? A take down of Au to $1250-$1275 with an accompanying rally of the USD? Even against the background of CFTC regulatory changes dictated by the Dodd-Frank law.
> 
> Keeping powder dry for this possible scenario.
> 
> SX




We have an increasing amount of volatility in both curencies, p/m's and markets which most often ushers in big change.

Had a mate of mine who lives in South Korea send me an email over night as follows:



> I think inflation is something that will start kicking the gold price up.
> Notice how the deflationists have gone all quiet for the last three months.
> 
> Yet Producer Prices in Australia, the UK, the US, Europe, Korea & China have all risen
> on news in the last week. Any gold bug worth their salt doesnt need to wonder why. If the northern hemisphere
> winter is a bad one, oil will go $100+ a barrel and gold will follow the barometer as always! And so will the cost of everything
> that needs to be transported to market for that matter and the price of anything used to heat homes (ie. coal).
> The Inflation genie will become Godzilla even faster than we think.
> Any dips below $US1240 an ounce and I will be buying more physical for sure.
> 
> Here's my quote of the week:
> 
> Fed Treasury purchases will spur global inflation while failing to bring down U.S. unemployment, El-Erian said yesterday.
> Pimco, based in Newport Beach, California, manages the world’s biggest bond fund.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ive-month-high-on-outlook-for-fed-easing.html
> 
> Now all that needs to happen is a new round of bond purchases by the US FED and more Quantitative easing (Newspeak
> for cashing up the already over-leveraged on Wall Street still living in "no network headlines" denial).
> 
> Just wait for the Jim Sinclair call of $1650 by Jan 2011 and ALF numbers after that. He won't be far off for the way it looks at the moment.
> 
> Stay the course friend. Those closest to you will depend on it.
> 
> Hold your gold.
> 
> Keep well and stay alert




And of course the news blogs in the last few days confirms all of that.  Particularly the move by silver which many times we have noted fortells in the short term the next move in gold.   On a normal ratio against gold of course silver ought to be around US$40.  That level if reached will further add to growing sentiment on pm's overall.  As the printing presses continue to destroy the financial world we have known, it would seem that bullion, land or something of value in the hand would be the wise way to go at the moment.

But that is just my opinion.


----------



## wayneL

Mr Z said:


> Apparently the laws are on the books to allow for confiscation of Australians gold.




I floated this idea a couple years ago on here.

At thsi point I wouldn't discount anything.


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> I floated this idea a couple years ago on here.
> 
> At thsi point I wouldn't discount anything.



If they keep on keeping printing money no storage of national wealth will be excluded. 

STOP PRINTING MONEY AND ALLOW IDIOTS TO FAIL AND DIE!!!!!


----------



## wayneL

kennas said:


> STOP PRINTING MONEY AND ALLOW IDIOTS TO FAIL AND DIE!!!!!




Yes please!!!


----------



## explod

wayneL said:


> I floated this idea a couple years ago on here.
> 
> At thsi point I wouldn't discount anything.




Agree, love silver.


----------



## nukz

Mr Z said:


> Apparently the laws are on the books to allow for confiscation of Australians gold.




This is true, but to the best of my knowledge when this was done in the U.S only a small amount of approximately 25% actually was confiscated and that belonged to banks/institutions ect.

If that ever ever happened here would you let the government take this from you? i think not lol who cares if your breaking the law


----------



## Southern X

For those still conscious and relatively sober late after the horse race keep an eye on what the FED does with respect to QE II.

It seems to me that much of the past month's move in commodities has first been predicated on the notion of the Fed printing a shock and awe amount of lovely smelling new money. Then, pundits have been strongly suggesting it won't be so shock and awe-ish after all. Even with a recent WSJ story downgrading the height of said new money being "suggested" as being a deliberate Fed leak... sheesh!

What's that?! Pub time! 

Gotta go.

SX


----------



## Logique

explod said:


> Agree, love silver.



Ag finished +3.0% at 24.75 overnight, Au up 1% too.


----------



## skcots

Logique said:


> Ag finished +3.0% at 24.75 overnight, Au up 1% too.





Pd was up 3.4% to $646 
Sunshine and lollipops in the metals markets.


----------



## Southern X

Gold will be very news driven this week. The link gives a round up of opinions, with a dash of reasoning:

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DeC_metals.html

Patricia Mohr picks Pd as 2011's best commodity. Anyone have a Pd ASX/TSX pick (besides MMW:ASX/TSX)?

SX


----------



## GumbyLearner

Finally back from the sin bin. Just thought I'd say hi again to all and sundry. 

Good to see explod hanging in there and sharing the wisdom around.

Another round of QE coming up this week.

Still holding the good ol' Au. 

Here's a great article on the current status of play in the States. Hopefully 
another round of QE won't create further mistrust in the market. But it's probably likely that US citizens will be buying more physical over the next few years. 

http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-majority-of-government-doesnt-trust-citizen,17459/

Cheers fellas


----------



## explod

Great to have you released Gumby, has been a tough job keeping the gold price up since you left.

Well its all politics and the Fed Heads this wek, so hold your breath wait and see with gold.  

Late Tuesday of next week before we see any clear direction.   The QE jaw boning will keep it depressed as usual for a few days but confident the rise will then resume.


----------



## nukz

I think gold/silver markets have already taken into account QE2 in their price. I would think possibly we could have a short term drop in gold/silver when it is announced. 

That being said if it's announced the fed will really put the printer in overdrive and print a $ trillion sum then i would expect a fair rise in gold/silver. 

Right now i think the market is focused on approximatly 500 billion so anything less may dissapoint the market.


----------



## explod

I think you are pretty right there nukz though the turnaround has been very fast indeed.  During the US session over night gold went from a US$1365 high to 1325 in a matter of little more than six hours.  That was the drop you anticipated, US$40 of it, but the rebound to 1355 (up $30) has taken place in ten hours.  Now that is volatility.

Some of the points I raised earlier in the day in the *silver thread* have been published since by Dan Norcini and is well worth a read for the detail on what is going on with the US dollar (as we have allways said, this is about currencies) and you can find it via JSMinset on the following link: 

http://jsmineset.com/


----------



## joea

Don't beat around the bush.
The tail may point to a break higher to $1390. Tail .... read Elder.
Twiggs gives this advice twice a week.
Cheers.


----------



## nukz

Saw this on another forum before...

GoldMoney testing all its gold bars for counterfeiting - 
As of October 2010 we have begun using ultrasound scanning technology to verify that each of the gold bars we store for you is free of foreign materials and defects. Any bar that fails the ultrasound test is melted down, assayed and then recast into a new bar. We aim to complete the scanning of all gold bars in the first quarter of 2011.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rh0Mcagio5Q


Cool video, i wouldn't mind some of those 400oz bars, wonder if this thing detects tungsten


----------



## GumbyLearner

Gold takes out new record tonight.

*Enter the era of dollar devaluation: James Saft*

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52674220101104?pageNumber=1

(Reuters) - We've entered a new era in global financial markets: the U.S. is intentionally devaluing the dollar.

For the U.S., which has long espoused a strong dollar but in reality had a policy of benign neglect, this is the equivalent of pushing the big red eject button in the jet cockpit: something big is going to happen and we will have to see how it will work out.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday moved to open a second round of quantitative easing, pledging to purchase a total of $600 billion of longer-dated Treasuries between now and the end of the second quarter of next year. As well, the Fed will reinvest $250-300 billion in the same period, meaning that the central bank will be buying up $110 billion a month in Treasuries and creating a like amount of new money out of the ether.

Perhaps the principal way QE will boost the economy, the Fed hopes, is by lowering effective interest rates, enticing investors to move into riskier assets, some of which may generate inflation and jobs. As well there is the wealth effect; the old canard of spending more because your retirement account and house have gone up in nominal terms.

The bald fact, though, is that by turning on the printing presses the Fed will drive down the value of the dollar absent a similar move in another currency. Much of the new investment created by QE will be made not in the U.S. but will be money borrowed in the U.S., exchanged into a foreign currency, probably an emerging markets one, and invested overseas. That will drive the dollar down, which will help to make U.S. industry more competitive.

There you have it; competitive devaluation, a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. It is not much of a lever, but it is one of the few which the Fed has left to pull.

Don't expect anyone from the Fed or the Treasury to tell you this in simple declarative sentences, but it's true nonetheless.

"Devaluation is the intention, and devaluation is what is going to happen," Avinash Persaud, Chairman of Elara Capital told the Forex Forum conference in New York on Tuesday.

We can surely expect the U.S. to deny this, as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner did in October, but the truth will be seen in the foreign exchange markets, where the dollar has been falling and will fall further as the year winds down.

*GETTING THE GENIE BACK INTO THE BOTTLE
*
It is most certainly in the power of the U.S. to begin a period of competitive devaluation. The U.S. dollar is a global reserve currency and the marginal cost to Bernanke of printing more is very low indeed. Less certain are the reactions of the rest of the world.

While the U.S. will surely have prepared the way for QE2 with its major trading partners (and in fact may be deliberately ticking off the Chinese) there remains a strong chance that a falling dollar sets off a range of tit-for-tat reactions. Already Korea and Brazil are moving to stem the appreciation of their own currency. Look too for the possibility of other countries joining in to QE, in part so that the Japanese yen, to name just one, does not rise too much against the dollar.

A currency war blossoming into a trade war has to be one of the outside but significant risks of 2011.


----------



## Whiskers

GumbyLearner said:


> Gold takes out new record tonight.
> 
> (Reuters) - We've entered a new era in global financial markets: the U.S. is intentionally devaluing the dollar.
> 
> For the U.S., which has long espoused a strong dollar but in reality had a policy of benign neglect, this is the equivalent of pushing the big red eject button in the jet cockpit:* something big is going to happen and we will have to see how it will work out.*
> 
> While the U.S. will surely have prepared the way for QE2




In the meantime we're just marking time

Will be interesting to see if our market gets too excited today!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

GumbyLearner said:


> A currency war blossoming into a trade war has to be one of the outside but significant risks of 2011.




Actually the trade wars started several months ago, if not already preceded by currency manipulation since 1971?



Whiskers said:


> In the meantime we're just marking time
> 
> Will be interesting to see if our market gets too excited today!




Always fun to watch - the aussie gold value barely changes due to exchange rate yet goldies get bid up with the rest of the market euphoria at more money printed! The fact is, gold still hasn't surpassed the inflation adjusted high of the last bull, so to me, in light of all that's happened, gold has underperformed to my expectations.

While I'd like to see this as a flight to gold, it appears to me to be multiple markets being driven by mis directed QE liquidity ie markets are exhibiting the same blinkered ignorance to the underlying economic realities while making new post GFC highs. Gold will get taken down with the rest of them soon? Then the real action will start.


----------



## electronicmaster

Uncle Festivus said:


> Actually the trade wars started several months ago, if not already preceded by currency manipulation since 1971?
> 
> 
> 
> Always fun to watch - the aussie gold value barely changes due to exchange rate yet goldies get bid up with the rest of the market euphoria at more money printed! The fact is, gold still hasn't surpassed the inflation adjusted high of the last bull, so to me, in light of all that's happened, gold has underperformed to my expectations.
> 
> While I'd like to see this as a flight to gold, it appears to me to be multiple markets being driven by mis directed QE liquidity ie markets are exhibiting the same blinkered ignorance to the underlying economic realities while making new post GFC highs. Gold will get taken down with the rest of them soon? Then the real action will start.




Hold Gold Buy Silver.  Silver always out performs Gold.  Gold will soon gain as well from here on.

This is a bull market that can last another ten years.   

Of course you will see minor corrections along the way, but that's all part of the game.

You have to have the Guts to hold.


----------



## explod

electronicmaster said:


> Hold Gold Buy Silver.  Silver always out performs Gold.  Gold will soon gain as well from here on.
> 
> This is a bull market that can last another ten years.
> 
> Of course you will see minor corrections along the way, but that's all part of the game.
> 
> You have to have the Guts to hold.




Amen, game set and match.


----------



## nukz

electronicmaster said:


> Hold Gold Buy Silver.  Silver always out performs Gold.  Gold will soon gain as well from here on.




If a return to the gold standard was ever possible, i wonder what impact that would have.


----------



## electronicmaster

nukz said:


> If a return to the gold standard was ever possible, i wonder what impact that would have.




You don't want to be holding any kind of Fiat currency when/if that happens.

EDIT: It will be like dividing your wealth by three


----------



## explod

nukz said:


> If a return to the gold standard was ever possible, i wonder what impact that would have.




Yep agree with electronicmaster 100%.  However do yourself a favour and google up the history of gold as money and have a good read.  It may well change your whole thinking about the financial system.

Be interested on your take after a good weekend on that research.

good luck and cheers explod


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Yep agree with electronicmaster 100%.  However do yourself a favour and google up the history of gold as money and have a good read.  It may well change your whole thinking about the financial system.
> 
> Be interested on your take after a good weekend on that research.
> 
> good luck and cheers explod




You conspiracy theorist you explod? 

How dare you talk about such things you need counselling? 

Without declaring myself as a complete *loon-bag*, I would like to differentiate myself from the current crowd. I'm not interested in credit card leverage, the latest gaming console or even the latest 60 inch plasma! 

I just want a return on the hard earned and the multiplier provided by printing. Are the printers increasing the money supply Made In China?


----------



## GumbyLearner

In true-boss territory now


----------



## Ageo

The spreads on 1oz (physical) bars are as high as i can remember, pamp bars are as high as $60 from spot!

That only means one thing when the spread blows out "uncertainty in the market"

Whats funny thow is the demand for bullion is still very strong despite the prices....


----------



## explod

Ageo said:


> Whats funny thow is the demand for bullion is still very strong despite the prices....




It is the flight from paper money in earnest now Ageo, the currency wars are a battle for trading competitiveness.   No one is going to win this one as the printing of money to stimulate will repeat the old story of the Weimar Republic of Germany, 1919, where in the end it took a wheel barrow load of paper money to buy a meat pie.  More and more in the know do not want to hold paper cash in moves to hard assets for protection.

And as Gumbylearner pointed out a couple of days ago, with references, inflation is the next problem emerging.  And contrary to many pundits, this will be an inflation of necessities such as food or tangibles that have substance, ie., those means that can help put food on the table.  That will not be paper money but bullion IMO.

The problem is, as pointed out by Uncle Festivus last week, we are in unknown territory this time.   World economics appear so haywire compared to similar situations of the past that maybe even our bullion will be no protection, as Uncle added, "you cant eat it".


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> No one is going to win this one as the printing of money to stimulate will repeat the old story of the Weimar Republic of Germany, 1919, where in the end it took a wheel barrow load of paper money to buy a meat pie.



Do you really think the US will allow that to happen? Sure Germany did, but they only make good beer, javelin throwers and cars. And Zimbabwe? Well, we really shouldn't compare should we? 

I forecast that the money printing will reach a point where the US people will rise and say that's enough thank you very much, policy will change, USD will maintain supremacy and gold will tank. Tank back to USD supremacy levels post gold standard. Gold will NOT go back to being currency, or any other PMG. Gold will probably have some time to run, but once the climate changes, hold on to your golden hats.


----------



## professor_frink

kennas said:


> Do you really think the US will allow that to happen?




Perhaps the question should be do you really think the rest of the world will stand by and allow that to happen?


----------



## electronicmaster

kennas said:


> Do you really think the US will allow that to happen? Sure Germany did, but they only make good beer, javelin throwers and cars. And Zimbabwe? Well, we really shouldn't compare should we?
> 
> I forecast that the money printing will reach a point where the US people will rise and say that's enough thank you very much, policy will change, USD will maintain supremacy and gold will tank. Tank back to USD supremacy levels post gold standard. Gold will NOT go back to being currency, or any other PMG. Gold will probably have some time to run, but once the climate changes, hold on to your golden hats.






Gold is going to $2000.00 per Ounce by March next year or sooner.  It will follow the rise of Oil to $150.00 USD per Barrel and higher (Max $200.00 USD Oil per barrel)

That is where Gold is heading


----------



## Edwood

new highs - but on serious divergence - wouldn't be buying now


----------



## Sean K

professor_frink said:


> Perhaps the question should be do you really think the rest of the world will stand by and allow that to happen?



Yep, there are a couple of countries with vested interest in USD aren't there. Can they really get out of USD and convert to gold, or euro, or whatever without tanking the entire system? Maybe it's a long process that will eventually lead to USD on the toilet roll holder...


----------



## Southern X

Right now I'm holding my equities. Bought into an equity, at the Fed QE2 announcement, ie. the day the markets were in a quandary as to what direction ANYTHING was going.

I'm not chasing anything; though I firmly believe Au is going up. This seemingly contradictory view is for one reason, to wit: the markets are moving on what the Fed gurgles out, ie. they're setting the pace regardless of almost anything meaningful, fundamental, or sensible... and every dip is being bought. With no powder dry now I'll re-adjust when I see a dip. After all there's always another bus/train/ship leaving.

In the end, then, it's, for me in the very short term, not about charts, or fundamentals in whatever dynamic; it's about extraneous forces, Fed, to a lesser degree Trichet, BoJ, jawboning. Currency wars in this space will definitively raise Au, but still these gurgling interventions concern me as to being offside, or not getting as a good a price as I want for an entry nto an equity.

Now, let's ALL MAKE MONEY!

SX


----------



## Ageo

explod said:


> It is the flight from paper money in earnest now Ageo,




Well basically word on the street is people are uncertain with paper money especially seeing the AUD passing the USD, they are uncertain with how volatile share markets can react to news etc..... i had 1 customer buy 5kgs of gold simply because he was after some wealth protection long term against uncertain markets..... whatever the reason may be more people are talking about gold now then they have ever been which means 1 thing "demand".

This is just average people who have never looked at gold before now considering it as some form of option.


----------



## Sean K

Ageo said:


> This is just average people who have never looked at gold before now considering it as some form of option.



Isn't that bubble material?

The taxi driver was commenting on gold a couple of nights ago....


----------



## MR.

kennas said:


> Isn't that bubble material?




You crack me up. Lets look at a graph of gold in USD's? What's that, near 400% in 10 years!



Look at it in AUD, now that's much better only a little over 100% increase in 10 years and still not higher than Feb 2009....

Wonder if the AUD will tank against the USD before it pops?


----------



## Ageo

kennas said:


> Isn't that bubble material?
> 
> The taxi driver was commenting on gold a couple of nights ago....




Not really kennas as people are putting their money into gold for the long haul, when the same thing happened with shares in the great depression it was because people were after a quick buck.....

Anywayz i still dont think gold will go beyond $3000 p/o anytime soon simply because it will affect the jewellery consuming market which drives alot of the gold price....

My opinion of course


----------



## Logique

Edwood said:


> new highs - but on serious divergence - wouldn't be buying now



I think that's an astute comment Edwood. And in addition to that, I'd invite anyone to check the NYSE US Dollar Index Future spot price from mid-October compared to now = roughly the same at about 77.0. 

To my eye there is clear divergence in the tech indicators, which ought to be viewed before getting carried away at current prec metals levels.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I still think it's liquidity driven - just like everything else that is going up in price. When the trend stops is when the sheep get sorted, even the ones who are buying 5 kg lots at these prices? Then you have to ask, if indeed the $USD is going to be worth-less, who will be the biggest loser? The answer, China. Their only collateral and the funding of their very own form of QE to the tune of $600B, in the form of trade surplus dollars, will literally evaporate overnight. BTW, their 'stimulis' package is about to end at the end of November, so be prepared for some bubbles to come under strain, if not burst. And the ramifications for big mining hole Australia ie we rely on the strength of the US, and the currency, more than most people realise; we just can't disregard them as a dying capitalistic empire? 

Also, if you look at the charts then it's about due for some retracement and reversing of trends ie the USD DX, for the '$USD is doomed short' traders and anything else that's on the other side of this thinking ie gold - all part of the game. Good trading, but I'm not adding any physical right now as a sizeable correction is imminent, in all markets? Have a look at the VIX & sentiment amongst others - getting close for reversal? Taking time, but getting closer....

VIX V INDU chart


----------



## Edwood

Logique said:


> To my eye there is clear divergence in the tech indicators, which ought to be viewed before getting carried away at current prec metals levels.




Hi Logique - I should've said I was referring to the daily view - interestingly Uncle's weekly charts are not showing any divergence really


----------



## Logique

Edwood said:


> Hi Logique - I should've said I was referring to the daily view - interestingly Uncle's weekly charts are not showing any divergence really



Cheers, I'll add a daily chart under. Great paired charts from Uncle Festivus, who provides a much better explanation of the factors behind my growing unease, and the reason I've got some shorts atm -hedging my bets. 

I hadn't realized the Chinese stimulus package ends at close of Nov, that only adds to my caution.

I notice the NYSE US Dollar Index Future was up again, nearly 1% overnight. What did the Doors sing..'..been down so goddam long, that it looks like up to me..'


----------



## Edwood

and gold daily


----------



## Mr Z

People, people, people.... don't short gold until sometime around May 2011! Seasonals, seasonals, seasonals.... it is just not worth playing against them! I told ya not to step in front of this train month or two ago... go flat if you are nervous BUT go look at the 2005-2006 chart and work it out yourself!


----------



## Edwood

Thanks Mr Z
technicals are usually more successful than seasonals in my experience - ala the general stock market rally in Sept \ Oct this year, best rally for this time of year for many years.  You'd not be happy if you'd sold just because it was Sept.
Daily Technicals suggest gold is running out of steam, but weekly has plenty of room to move


----------



## Mr Z

I say as a long term T/A that trades gold for a living.... DON"T SHORT THE SEASONALS!

Take a look at the monthly... you have not seen overbought yet, this will likely hoist the bears by their !

Who sells in gold September? Never until Dec and into the New Year, in a good year as late as May. This is a good season.... you will have your jaw on the ground before its done...

JMO.


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> I say as a long term T/A that trades gold for a living.... DON"T SHORT THE SEASONALS!
> 
> Take a look at the monthly... you have not seen overbought yet, this will likely hoist the bears by their !
> 
> Who sells in gold September? Never until Dec and into the New Year, in a good year as late as May. This is a good season.... you will have your jaw on the ground before its done...
> 
> JMO.




ahh yes timeframe is key - I'm short term TA.  I was short last night, flat now and may be short again soon.  (I'm not generally looking for long term moves fwiw and agree the long term looks sound)
cheers


----------



## Mr Z

Good luck!

FWIW... sit back, relax, take a long view. There is more money in it and a lot less work


----------



## Southern X

So, was last night a bear raid? Anticipation over what rabbit the G 20 may pull out of the hat?

My discipline is being tested as I've recently pulled out of REEs and I'd like to further my Au equity position.

I think the confluence of events: U$600 to U$850 Billion QE2; Euro debt woes, and Zoellick(sp?); have all provided positive price catalysts. I now wonder if THE SPIKE has begun these very days? On top of that I firmly, from a technical view, believe Au is not in a bubble. Of course if the spike begins to manifest itself it will be, but early days.

This is a train I would not step in front of until the US starts to raise interest rates, or the US public begins BUYING in earnest. These, and technicals, will be my sell signals.

For now and until mid 2011, when QE2 whimpers out, I'm long, buying dips.

SX


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> There is more money in it




I disagree with you there Mr Z - but good luck to you too


----------



## Mr Z

Southern X said:


> So, was last night a bear raid?




Last night was a desperate stunt. Look at the timing and think about the liquidity available during the decline. It was designed to shake the weak hands loose. 



Southern X said:


> For now and until mid 2011, when QE2 whimpers out, I'm long, buying dips.




Yes... next year will be a classic "sell in May" IM Humble Opinion.


----------



## Southern X

Agreed Z, desperate indeed.

I understand the Crimex is changing its margin requirements. Short squeeze imminent? Protect those bullion banks at all costs? ALL COSTS!?

Stumbled across this website and have been listening for the past hour. Maybe some here are interested. It has a TSX-V bias, but so do I:

http://www.moneytalks.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4441

Enjoy. Now let's make MONEY!

SX


----------



## nukz

Southern X said:


> http://www.moneytalks.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4441
> 
> Enjoy. Now let's make MONEY!




Great link Southern X, watching it now interesting


----------



## Edwood

why do you think the 'bear raid' was desperate guys?  if I'd gone long out of a steep sell off would you call that desperate?  nought wrong in my book with making a return when an opportunity presents.

Some interesting comments here re: current RSI levels.  

http://ciovaccocapital.com/articles/dollargoldconcerning.html


----------



## Southern X

Desperation on a global scale:

My thanks to main man 'J' for the link. His explanation was also succinct in the covering mail, so let's leave it to him:

    "... CME is raising, on one days’ notice, initial and maintenance requirements for Silver by 30% - hence the $1.60 drop in Silver in the last 40 mins"

http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2010/11/why-did-silver-just-sell-off-this-is.html

One day's notice! 

BTW I Highly recommend incakola. 

SX


----------



## Trembling Hand

Southern X said:


> Desperation on a global scale:
> 
> My thanks to main man 'J' for the link. His explanation was also succinct in the covering mail, so let's leave it to him:
> 
> "... CME is raising, on one days’ notice, initial and maintenance requirements for Silver by 30% - hence the $1.60 drop in Silver in the last 40 mins"




*Just LOL*. Same old same old BS. No trader gives a Sh!! about minimum margin. Only retail cowboys. The margin is irrelevant to 90% of traders who trade commodities on a long term basis. The other 10% will be not trading next week because they have blown up.


----------



## Mr Z

Southern X said:


> One day's notice!




Anyone who trades this market regularly knew it was coming and knew how big it would be. You only have to look at what the silver price has done to understand that margin had to move in line with price. There are no boogymen here!


----------



## Southern X

Trembling, you must have an interesting accounting system. Especially since such a move would seriously impact your Ag book.

And, of course, the direct cause and effect of the one day notice and drop in Ag is just a co-inkydinky.

The margin move is to protect those shorting. Get it? Or, rather, please cite a time when the Crimex EVER lowered margin when Ag was going lower. 

As for blowing up I'm sure your accounting of your book will always be a thing of beauty.  

SX


----------



## Trembling Hand

Southern X said:


> Trembling, you must have an interesting accounting system. Especially since such a move would seriously impact your Ag book.
> 
> And, of course, the direct cause and effect of the one day notice and drop in Ag is just a co-inkydinky.
> 
> The margin move is to protect those shorting. Get it? Or, rather, please cite a time when the Crimex EVER lowered margin when Ag was going lower.
> 
> As for blowing up I'm sure your accounting of your book will always be a thing of beauty.
> 
> SX






Oh dear. I should of known not to stick my head into the Bugs confirmation bias "discussion" would be nice to come in here and talk to a bug who knew about markets most basic mechanics but ......

Please do yourself a favor and go and learn about correct position sizing of futures then come back and tell me what minimum exchange margin has to do with anyone with reasonable holdings.


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> why do you think the 'bear raid' was desperate guys?




It was done into the close of the Comex and into the globex markets. In other words it was done when they knew liquidity would be low. They wanted to buy as low a price as they could for a few a contracts as they could. The hope is to flush some volume in the next Comex session so that they can cover more short positions. It was done off the back of a rallying USD and not some margin move. This is not the normal short raid, normally they are on Comex hours or they setup in London for contrary moves on the Comex.

If you didn't notice that I'd be thinking twice about what you are doing on the short side of a gold. CFD's I assume.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Please do yourself a favor and go and learn about correct position sizing of futures then come back and tell me what minimum exchange margin has to do with anyone with reasonable holdings.




LOL...

Yes, very little and you could hardly be surprised by it after Silvers run!

Some small specs became road kill, nuthin abnormal in any contract!


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh dear. I should of known not to stick my head into the Bugs confirmation bias "discussion" would be nice to come in here and talk to a bug who knew about markets most basic mechanics but ......
> 
> Please do yourself a favor and go and learn about correct position sizing of futures then come back and tell me what minimum exchange margin has to do with anyone with reasonable holdings.




I was instructed years ago to keep away from trading futures so why bother to learn about them.  And also to keep my trading at my own level of understanding and certainly not to use margin.

One should only spend what one has and risk only what one can afford.  If that was the way it was played we would not have the terrible situation that the *septic tanks *have now.  Maddock was just the tip of the iceberg and in retrospect he was the canary in the mine.

You seem to be on some sort of authoritarian high horse, why do you need to be this way, why not discuss as it comes on the levels required for all to understand.  If you are saying that it takes books and extra study to communicate with you then you are joking surely.  

It is openly admitted that there are more paper contracts than existing precious metal both in and what is likely to be left in the ground (and to pay for what was promised to be dug up is why it began in the first place) by a considerable margin.  That it has gone well beyond this simple fact many of us see as wrong.

And I do understand the fluctuations of margin and as values change, more or less may have to be put in.  It does seem obvious that those going long were being hit with an increased penalty when in fact the product is going up in value.  A bit the same as Moodys downgrading Spain (bad as it is for them)when in fact the US's situation in fact is very much worse.

As far as the blowoff is concerned, it was more than overdue and we will no doubt see some more before the next consolidation and rise.  Thats just the way it has behaved all the way up since 2002.  Climbing the wall of worry, worry added to in particular by those trying to protect the paper money printing system, a system now neatly described as Quantative Easing.


----------



## Mr Z

Futures markets are very good at sniffing out weakness and exploiting it. Once they believe that the strength is on the long side then you will be glad they work the way they do. For PM's and commodities in general it is my belief that this season will be a watershed event. There will be no going back until we have a convincing effort at either fixing the USD or establishing a new reserve. I believe it will be the latter... eventually. In the mean time the "currency wars" should keep gold in good custom!


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> It was done into the close of the Comex and into the globex markets. In other words it was done when they knew liquidity would be low.




Still don't see why its desperate, sounds like a good play to me!

Either way mine is not to reason why, just follow the set ups & keep consistently banking


----------



## Trembling Hand

Explod you freely comment, almost always incorrectly, about the futures market then when called on the most basic of errors you spout out this nonsense, 



> I was instructed years ago to keep away from trading futures so why bother to learn about them.




Either educate yourself about what *you *comment on or continue to talk like a _fool_. I don't care but be warned - I will stick my head in from time to time to point out your most remedial of errors just in case some poor sole confuses your comments with an authoritative view.



> And I do understand the fluctuations of margin and as values change, more or less may have to be put in. It does seem obvious that those going long were being hit with an increased penalty when in fact the product is going up in value.



 Oh dear!! And again this is just nutz wrong!!! please explain??


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> Still don't see why its desperate, sounds like a good play to me!




OK!


----------



## Southern X

OK trembling, what are your thoughts on option expiry, especially when the contracts move to the next month?

SX


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Explod you freely comment, almost always incorrectly, about the futures market then when called on the most basic of errors you spout out this nonsense,
> 
> 
> 
> Either educate yourself about what *you *comment on or continue to talk like a _fool_. I don't care but be warned - I will stick my head in from time to time to point out your most remedial of errors just in case some poor sole confuses your comments with an authoritative view.
> 
> Oh dear!! And again this is just nutz wrong!!! please explain??




I will back off.  I am a long term investor and follow long term trends.  I am not interested or enticed to follow any other path and do not need to learn any other way.

I understand that gold and silver is in a good long term trend so am on it.  The fundamantals of money as I understand it would indicate that this trend will contiue for a long time.   I do not have to stare at a screen all day so can paint in my studio with peace of mind.

I will refrain from commenting on the short term traders but will still put my two bobs worth in on the basics as I see them as I enjoy the gold thread.  

There are a lot of technical posters on this thread who in fact often call it wrong but I tend to get the idea that the technical followers hold the fundamental approach in a bit of disdain.   I remember it in another profession, you have those who love to watch tacho's and play with radios and those who want to get the job done.  Includes a sprinkling of all.


----------



## professor_frink

explod,

for a basic run down on futures margin, have a look here

http://www.futurestradingpedia.com/futures_margin.htm

should help a bit.


----------



## Mr Z

Southern X said:


> OK trembling, what are your thoughts on option expiry, especially when the contracts move to the next month?
> 
> SX




Oh there is no doubt that both gold and silver are pushed around in the short term for fun and profit but as for an organized cartel that is just bunk. This is a "cartel of common interest".... these guys have been trading these markets in the same way for years, the behaviors are ingrained and are hung over from a 25 year bear market. They all act the same way in the way that car dealers act similarly... because that is how you made a profit. We are only now getting to the point that they are changing tactics and the thing is that the PM markets are so small in dollar terms that these guys dominated, their rules ran the show! Personally I liked it because I knew how it worked, now things are changing I have to learn new tricks!... anyway, like I said I think this is a 'watershed' year.

Anwhoooo goldbugs assign a mythical power of total control to this cartel and then they view the whole market through this lens. Sure there is bent stuff going on and sure some knuckles are going to be wrapped *but* despite this gold has compounded at %17 for ten years or so now, what is not to like? How exactly do 'the cartel' have total control of this....?! Short answer is they don't, the majority of this is normal market action....IMO.

2c


----------



## Southern X

I've never been a goldbug. I don't even know how I've been assigned this role, especially from my posts on this thread.

Simply mentioning this odd margin move?

I'm not a bug for practical reasons: in the world the bugs envision it would be better to hold guns, bullets, preserved food, and liquor; I play explorecos and am more interested in geology and metallurgy; too much reading from these GATAs and CIGAs and I've got a full plate, and; the alleged cartel never phones to give a heads-up for their next dastardly move.

On the other hand I don't care for people pontificating from their high horse, arrogantly prescribing intelligence and characters to others based on their... what?

So let's leave the genius certificate at the door and reason like adults.

SX


----------



## explod

Pure and simple, all we have is a dilution of paper money in the US (Japan and others too) by its printing of paper money (promise stuff) in the first place.   In the second, the world population is growing and the demands on resources are getting to limit, food is becoming scarce and so on.

As just stated gold is but a minute part of the overall market but has sentimental and some intrinsic value.  A small increase in sentiment is going to keep it syrocketing and that last word will only further increase sentiment.

It will just keep going up in my view so its worth being on.   Too easy.

And the rhetoric via Bloomberg, Jon Nadler of Kitco and many other Wall Street commentators makes it very clear that they detest gold and by inference do everything they can to suppress interest.  There is just too much media noise in that way for it to be denied.

In fact some of the reports of Nadler lately have been laughable and links he puts up against quotes when checked often say the opposite to what Nadler asserts in the article.   A rule of dealing with the media is, "get the good one liner in and you are home and hosed"  the detail will rarely be read or questioned.

And thanks for the link Prof/f., I will check it out.


----------



## Mr Z

Southern X said:


> I've never been a goldbug. I don't even know how I've been assigned this role, especially from my posts on this thread.
> 
> Simply mentioning this odd margin move?
> 
> I'm not a bug for practical reasons: in the world the bugs envision it would be better to hold guns, bullets, preserved food, and liquor; I play explorecos and am more interested in geology and metallurgy; too much reading from these GATAs and CIGAs and I've got a full plate, and; the alleged cartel never phones to give a heads-up for their next dastardly move.
> 
> On the other hand I don't care for people pontificating from their high horse, arrogantly prescribing intelligence and characters to others based on their... what?
> 
> So let's leave the genius certificate at the door and reason like adults.
> 
> SX




I didn't call you a goldbug!

Goldbugs like piles of can, coins and bullets. 

High horse, arrogant.... LOL WHAT?

Oh sorry... I will leave now, I appear to have upset you.

Jeeez Louise!


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Pure and simple, all we have is a dilution of paper money in the US (Japan and others too) by its printing of paper money (promise stuff) in the first place.   In the second, the world population is growing and the demands on resources are getting to limit, food is becoming scarce and so on.
> 
> As just stated gold is but a minute part of the overall market but has sentimental and some intrinsic value.  A small increase in sentiment is going to keep it syrocketing and that last word will only further increase sentiment.
> 
> It will just keep going up in my view so its worth being on.   Too easy.
> 
> And the rhetoric via Bloomberg, Jon Nadler of Kitco and many other Wall Street commentators makes it very clear that they detest gold and by inference do everything they can to suppress interest.  There is just too much media noise in that way for it to be denied.
> 
> In fact some of the reports of Nadler lately have been laughable and links he puts up against quotes when checked often say the opposite to what Nadler asserts in the article.   A rule of dealing with the media is, "get the good one liner in and you are home and hosed"  the detail will rarely be read or questioned.
> 
> And thanks for the link Prof/f., I will check it out.




Its just Nadlers job.... he probably buys gold with what Kitco and Co pay him to play Devils advocate. They need guys like him to keep the little guys buying and selling. Its all about turnover for them, all they are doing is employing guys like Nadler to stir the pot. 

Everyone is just talking their book, people hold gold for too long, Wall St hates it only because they don't make money out of it. Pure and simple.... the finance guys will rarely try sell you gold, they prefer most anything else... it all turns faster than gold and it is turnover that greases their wheels. If GS put out a big gold call, well then look out for a top!


----------



## explod

"Thought For The Day

The ultimate proof of a bull market is the increase of margin rates.

They are a professional tool to cover shorts and dictated by the board of directors of the exchange, which means floor traders."

The above quote is from Jsminset today: link

http://jsmineset.com/


----------



## Mr Z

Jim is the Pied Piper of goldbugs! He gives some sugar, feeds their paranoia and pumps TNX. He has an agenda that leads to his pocket, take it all with salt.

Jim is twisting reality in that quote.

Once upon a time he promoted Monex on his site. If you know anything about them it should give you a clue.

Research Tan Range.... you should find out what goes on.


----------



## nukz

*Analysis: Deregulation set to lift China gold demand*

By Rujun Shen and Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE | Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:24am EST

(Reuters) - Plans to free up China's gold market are likely to boost imports of the precious metal to satisfy investor demand, putting the Middle Kingdom on course to eclipse India as the top global consumer in a few years.

China, the world's largest consumer of base metals and the second biggest user of oil, is on gold bugs' radar screens, with any hint that Beijing may want to boost its gold holdings rippling through international markets, sending bullion higher.

So far China's central bank has shied away from the international market and has instead been building reserves from its domestic mining industry, the largest in the world.

But that may change after the People's Bank of China said in August it would let its banks export and import more gold in a program to drive the development of the country's market in the precious metal.

By opening up the market, the PBOC may be able to draw tonnes of gold into China, which it could then pick up on the domestic market, without disrupting market equilibrium too much.

"The way they will accumulate a massive amount of gold is by opening up imports and making sure there is heck a lot of gold swishing around in the domestic market," said Mark Pervan, a senior commodities analyst at ANZ.

"It's just too big a player in the market. Investors are looking for any signs of China buying gold on the world market. If Beijing said it was buying 100 tonnes, prices would leap, not because of this 100 tonnes, but because of the 300 tonnes the market would expect to follow."

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT CHANNELS

Appetite for the precious metal has grown rapidly in China as investors worried about inflationary pressure turn to alternative investment channels.

Demand was expected to rise to around 600 tonnes in 2011, according to a Reuters survey of five analysts, and may go even higher.

"The jewelry sector is growing, as is demand for investment gold. A clampdown on property investment and speculation in other markets has resulted in more money going into gold and jewelry," said William Adams, analyst at FastMarkets.com.

"Jewelry demand in China has probably managed to rise and may even be growing at a faster pace than the average over the decade of about 7 percent."

China's gold consumption this year is forecast between 450 and 600 tonnes, with a consensus of 500 tonnes, analysts surveyed by Reuters said. The WGC estimates demand at 510 tonnes.

Several researchers have urged Beijing to increase its gold reserves to diversify more of its $2.6 trillion in foreign currency reserves, and a more open market would allow the central government to build stocks of gold more quickly, without sending tremors through the international market.

Although no detailed follow-up rules have been announced, analysts expect Beijing to open up the gold market as a prelude to deregulation of bond and foreign exchange markets.

"It really flags the start of a theme of deregulation in the financial markets. They are using the gold market as a test case," said Pervan.

China's total demand has risen by around 20 percent in three of the past four years, while demand for gold as an investment jumped 60 percent in 2009, data from the WGC show.

On an annualized basis, China's retail investment demand would rise another 44 percent in 2010 to more than 150 tonnes for this year, while jewelry consumption will rise only 2.5 percent to 360 tonnes, based on Reuters calculations using WGC data.

"We expect China to participate a lot more in the precious metals market," said UBS analyst Edel Tully. "We expect imports to accelerate. They (the Chinese) are making a very good attempt to catch up with India, which is the largest physical market."

USURPING INDIA?

Gold demand in India, battered by poor monsoon rains that darkened the outlook for farmers, the country's key customers for the metal, slumped last year, as high prices felled imports by about a third.

But India's overseas purchases may rise to a record high and even breach the 800-tonne mark this year, as demand is fed by a healthy monsoon that promises good crops.

If Chinese consumption continues to grow at recent rates, it could take the top spot from India in three or four years.

There are no official figures for mainland China imports, but data from Hong Kong, Asia's biggest bullion trading center, shows exports from the region to the mainland in the first eight months of the year were already nearly double those for all of 2009, pointing to surging appetite on the mainland.

On an annualized basis, China would import 118 tonnes of gold through Hong Kong, the main conduit for gold flows into the mainland, versus 44 tonnes last year and 90 tonnes in 2008.

China's gold output in the first eight months of the year rose 8.85 percent from a year earlier to 217.953 tonnes, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said.

"Domestic production is unlikely to grow much next year, so we'll probably see a lot more imports," said Zhu Yilin, general manager of the research and development department of Jingyi Futures in Shanghai.

And that means Chinese investors will have little choice but to go out to the world market to sate their gold fever.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A914220101110?pageNumber=1

Although it's just a matter of time before China eclipses India this might speed up the process.


----------



## Edwood

some nice selling down the end of last week, the divergence called it well >> is it still a bear raid do you think Mr Z?  (Been wondering why you're so into the detail on volume of very short term futures  action if you trade long term TA - isn't it all a but noisy for you down  at those minute-by-minute intervals?)

cheers, Ed


----------



## Mr Z

I trade gold stocks short term but the serious money is in bullion on a longer time frame in what they call a bullion account. I'm capable of walking and chewing gum. I don't dick around with CFD's. We are on support here, so far nothing is broken... next week will be very informative.


----------



## Edwood

Ah OK, so I guess no worries at all then for you given you're trading long term TA if we get back to 1100's.

(I have never traded CFD's fwiw, I'm assuming you might have given your negative views toward them?)


----------



## Mr Z

Why...? I never saw sense in them. Saving maybe the Man model, they where fully hedged. Most 'gold traders' here seem to use them, might as well go to an SP Bookie IMO... but to each their own. The damn things are actually illegal in the US, which is surprising when you consider what they do tolerate.

Gold $250... is no problem for me, why would any particular price be an issue?


----------



## nukz

I always thought this prediction was interesting for the DOW its following the theory of *Shoulders > Head > Shoulders > Crash*

The only reason i put it in this forum section is because i only really deal in shares and commodities and the shares are mining based anyway hehe but this could have some very interesting implications if achieved on gold/silver


----------



## Mr Z

H&S needs volume to define a legit pattern... where is the volume?


----------



## explod

nukz said:


> hehe but this could have some very interesting implications if achieved on gold/silver




And what may those implications be from your take nuks?


----------



## Edwood

here's an update on that gold PF highlighted at the start if this year.
Played out alright in the end I guess


----------



## nukz

http://goldsurvivalguide.co.nz/casey-research-when-to-sell-gold

I thought this was quite a good read


----------



## Edwood

bit of +ve divergence showing up now on the hourly, one more drop could be worth a long imo for a bounce.  also around the median line for some support - stops close, dyor etc


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> People, people, people.... don't short gold until sometime around May 2011! Seasonals, seasonals, seasonals.... it is just not worth playing against them! I told ya not to step in front of this train month or two ago...




when should we expect these seasonals to kick in Mr Z?


----------



## Edwood

gone long 1333.8.  Reasonable entry for a long compared to last week I guess


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> when should we expect these seasonals to kick in Mr Z?




Oh dear.... 

Look Edwood you are obviously a short term trading wizard so I don't know why you should need to concern yourself with such things. If you are curious, which I highly doubt, I suggest that you look at a longer term chart and work out where the probabilities lie at this time of year. I play probabilities and being older, lazy and maybe even a little wise I like to swim with the tide. 

Now you called a bounce didn't you?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

In the good ol days seasonals were probably relevant ie jewellery etc but it's a new ball game these days. Right now it's about newly printed money searching for yield or a new bubble to inflate. It won't take much to take down gold because of the weak hands only too willing to dump & run, maybe back down to the 900's. Who knows?

It's (gold) way too aligned with equity market sentiment for this to be 'it'. But if China decides that they can't control their bubbles then all bets are off.....I think there is one more flight to the $USD before the 'end'?


----------



## Mr Z

Good old days?

They have done fine by me as a guide since 2001... I seem to remember saying the same thing on this thread back in August some time when shorting was the topic djour. We typically have some corrective activity around November {give or take}, this is well with in the bounds of what I consider normal. Nothing has really been stretched far enough yet that I'd be calling this an abnormal year. Pull up a log scale chart and compare to last year...

FWIW we are due a strong season through to US summer.. it should be impressive. The dealers I talk to in the US on a daily basis are reporting premiums and supply are very normal right now, the COT data looks in reasonable shape... perhaps the small specs are ahead of themselves and I have no doubt they are being shaken hard right now, the political back drop is supportive with the CFTC's uttering all the right things and we have the prop trading desks closing down in order to meet new regs.... oh yeah, and all at right around the best time of year. I just don't see reason for tightening stops around here. Maybe I get taken out, risk control is in place and will work so ultimately I have no need to be right to profit.... that does not mean I can't see 'reasons to be cheerful'


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> In the good ol days seasonals were probably relevant ie jewellery etc but it's a new ball game these days.




I am with Mr Z on this one. You can quantify seasonality in the PM markets, if you want.

Adam Hamilton approaches it differently than most, and while I might not like to trade off his seasonality charts (doesn't suit my style), he at least has a crack. As he states, seasonality is a secondary driver of price, so you should be using it as a confirmation bias for technical triggers.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/14331/gold-bull-seasonals-4
http://www.safehaven.com/print/15575/silver-bull-seasonals


----------



## Mr Z

sinner said:


> seasonality is a secondary driver of price, so you should be using it as a confirmation bias for technical triggers.




Exactly...! There is a season for all things in gold.


----------



## Edwood

sinner said:


> seasonality is a secondary driver of price, so you should be using it as a confirmation bias for technical triggers




the conclusion being, price action, as always, is most important and overrides all other factors.


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> the conclusion being, price action, as always, is most important and overrides all other factors.




errrrrr why yes of course.


----------



## Edwood

long is coming along nicely now - didn't quite get the lows, but a few bucks off is OK I guess.  Good to keep those profits banking whatever the weather - eh Mr Z.


----------



## Edwood

slightly off topic, but since we're mixing timeframes, this was thrown out recently and gives food for thought:

>>  there are as many nano seconds in 1 second as there are seconds in 32 years


----------



## sinner

Edwood said:


> the conclusion being, price action, as always, is most important and overrides all other factors.




So why do you plot your price over time?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> So why do you plot your price over time?




Perhaps then we need to look at it like this?


----------



## nukz

*Gold May Advance to Record After Drop, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis*

Gold may advance 9.6 percent to a record $1,485 an ounce by the end of the year, according to technical analysts at Barclays Capital.

“Strategically, we are bullish,” the bank said. “Medium- term trend followers are unlikely to have been panicked out of their positions given that important support between $1,314 and $1,331 is still holding,” according to a report dated yesterday by analysts including Philip Roberts.

Gold for immediate delivery gained 1.4 percent to $1,354.95 an ounce today after losing 5.2 percent in the previous four days. The metal climbed to a record $1,424.60 on Nov. 9. Hedge- fund managers and other large speculators increased their net- long positions in New York gold futures by 7 percent in the week ended Nov. 9, ending four weeks of declines, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

“A bearish divergence signal on weekly charts, though, warns of downside risk throughout the month, and we still fear an important clearout below $1,314 to $1,250 before gold recovers,” the bank said. “We would be bargain-hunting as the price approaches $1,250.”

Resistance levels are at $1,387, $1,377 and $1,364 an ounce and support is at $1,314, $1,297 and $1,250, it said.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. 

Source - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...barclays-capital-says-technical-analysis.html


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> long is coming along nicely now - didn't quite get the lows, but a few bucks off is OK I guess.  Good to keep those profits banking whatever the weather - eh Mr Z.




I'm surprised you didn't sell 1360 ish, being an obvious resistance point.

BTW... nicely?...in NZD you should be right about even now, I dunno, I have not got an NZD chart... that is just a guesstimate.... do you have an NZD POG chart so we can have a look see?


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> BTW... nicely?...in NZD you should be right about even now, I dunno, I have not got an NZD chart... that is just a guesstimate.... do you have an NZD POG chart so we can have a look see?




no I haven't sorry Mr Z, my account is in GBP not NZD - I'll ask around the office & see if anyone here has an NZD chart for you


----------



## Mr Z

Don't worry, I was just assuming that NZD profits where meaningful to you given your profile.


----------



## Edwood

oh yep, no worries Mr Z 

(this link covers most fwiw - someone else may have a better one?)

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

cheers
Ed


----------



## Edwood

closed my longs just now for $30 - looking corrective all this chop & it couldn't hold the .38 retrace, so assuming we're heading lower again now


----------



## Logique

I'm thinking that if we see any near term easing in precious metals, it's more likely to be retracement than correction, so not overly concerned.

In wider markets, it's Euro scare mark 2 which seems to be dominating sentiment, so we just need to see how it plays out. 

I'll post a % comparison of the UKX and the USD index. The correlation of the  price of gold with the USD index is not nearly so consistent. Parallels with Euro scare mark 1.


----------



## iced earth

_*GOLD :26 Nov 2010:*_

After negative divergence between price and MACD HISTOGRAM , Gold started correction. now forming the bearish Head $ Shoulders is possible, if the neckline will be broken we might see gold around $1230


----------



## Mr Z

The volume pattern is not correct for H&S. This looks more like a big choppy consolidation for now.

A fund driven 'cover thy bonus' trade is in play, the US operates on a calendar year. It will most likely be choppy until Jan, then the fund money must find a new home. Note... it has not run to UST's with the rallying USDX. Also note that EUD & AUD gold are close to breakouts.

We are likely to be into thin volume for December, it could be an interesting ride.

COT numbers are available tonight, it will be interesting to see what they suggest.


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> The volume pattern is not correct for H&S. This looks more like a big choppy consolidation for now.
> 
> COT numbers are available tonight, it will be interesting to see what they suggest.




Take a look at the OI for Dec and Jan delivery. Something is up, definitely more than just bigdogs rolling into the next contract.


----------



## Mr Z

Since Oct the commercials appear to have been covering short positions. So far they have not sold this rally. Very bullish when you consider what is happening at the CFTC. The funds appear to have lost a little nerve coming into year end and are letting the commercials off the hook a little. My bet is a "cover thy bonus" trade is in. That will change come Jan when the money will be redeployed and I am betting that in the New Year it follows a 'tangibles' path. IMO it is going to be a very good year for small to mid cap miners, support industries and commodities. The QE rubber will hit the road and in all the places they least want to see it --> JMO. I'm Xmas shopping a long those lines on weakness FWIW.

We will see.... but I can't get bearish gold here on what I see, not yet.


----------



## Mr Z

June $2000 Calls OI = 14670 yet August... nada --> Someone agrees with my idea of timing... sell in May?!  Beware the options geeks! LOL.


----------



## sinner

Do you read Harvey Organ, Mr Z?

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

He talks a lot of ****, but it is interesting to see participation numbers crunched daily.


----------



## Mr Z

He is full of it! Lots of it.... damn goldbugs give us sane gold investors a bad name 

No...! but I will have a look... while holding my nose mind you!

Thanks!


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> He is full of it! Lots of it.... damn goldbugs give us sane gold investors a bad name
> 
> No...! but I will have a look... while holding my nose mind you!
> 
> Thanks!




Had a look myself, sounds on the ball.

No one wants to believe that cash is trash.

Going to be some heartache and and pain to those clinging to the current world as we know it.

Just plodding along in the vegie patch.


----------



## Mr Z

The guy just fabricated a story about Scotia Bank, Silver and his son, or at best grossly misrepresented the situation. Him and Douglas from GATA beat the whole thing up... the story had bus size holes in it! Douglas does this sort of thing regularly... one is left assuming it is good for his business.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Going to be some heartache and and pain to those clinging to the current world as we know it.




LOL... hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

They where claiming no silver at the time.... I know a State side dealer that offered to get them as much as they could handle --> NO REPLY?!



There is snake oil being sold all around in this market... both sides!


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> The guy just fabricated a story about Scotia Bank, Silver and his son, or at best grossly misrepresented the situation. Him and Douglas from GATA beat the whole thing up... the story had bus size holes in it! Douglas does this regularly... one is left assuming it is good for his business.




How do you know, how about some facts on who says its a beat up


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> How do you know, how about some facts on who says its a beat up




It was inconsistent with many things, Scotia's normal practice for one thing... nobody who is not vetted staff gets access to the main vaults. In the end end Puplava had a side swipe at the story on FSN News Hour, go dig around the archives at the time. He had a guest explaining the sort of security that goes on in the main vaults... what he saw, if he indeed saw it at all, was a holding vault or a working vault where metal in transit is kept short term.

Douglas keeps talking about futures in London... on a spot market!!!!! Anyway it goes on and on and on... For US gold bug consumption only! IMO


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> It was inconsistent with many things, Scotia's normal practice for one thing... nobody who is not vetted staff gets access to the main vaults. In the end end Puplava had a side swipe at the story on FSN News Hour, go dig around the archives at the time. He had a guest explaining the sort of security that goes on in the main vaults... what he saw, if he indeed saw it at all, was a holding vault or a working vault where metal in transit is kept short term.
> 
> Douglas keeps talking about futures in London... on a spot market!!!!! Anyway it goes on and on and on... For US gold bug consumption only! IMO




So we dont' really know.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Take a look at the OI for Dec and Jan delivery. Something is up, definitely more than just bigdogs rolling into the next contract.




Huh? why.


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> LOL... hmmmmmmmmmmmm.
> 
> They where claiming no silver at the time.... I know a State side dealer that offered to get them as much as they could handle --> NO REPLY?!
> 
> 
> 
> There is snake oil being sold all around in this market... both sides!




Can you link? I haven't heard about any of this...Scotia Bank has been in the mainstream press before due to silver delivery issues to that old Indian lady.

Snake oil abounds not only in both sides of the gold market but in all markets. Investors who replace due diligence with greed get their comeuppance. Those who have done their due diligence will care little for the practicalities of say, a conspiracy to suppress the price of gold. In fact as an opportunistic gold buyer that's exactly what I want, keep it down for as long as you like! 

The conspiracy theories may be true, they may be not. Both options are largely immaterial to my interests as a conviction gold buyer. 
Regardless, am I one to ignore the likes of GATA when they break a story like Adrian Maguire? If Adrian Douglas wants to spend a lot of his time and hard work writing articles like this series:

https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081310.html
https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-more-forensic-evidence-gold-silver-price-manipulation

am I one to simply ignore them? Until something convinces me otherwise, I am happy to give them the same attempt at balanced judgement as all the other analysts.

At least they don't sit on any fences


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> So we dont' really know.





What are you on about...?

Hey look, seriously, you have been given a heads up. Investigate it for yourself then you might get why his story was highly, highly unlikely to be correct. Very little rang true with any of my experience in the area... maybe you know better. Go listen to the Puplava interviews at the time, I forget the guys name but gives a very good description of how these facilities run and what they where likely shown.

These guys take things so far out of context it is not funny!

BTW Spot markets are not futures markets, take a close look at how the LBMA works and what it does, then think about the claims made there and how and what they have distorted.

Swallow it all if you want... don't complain to me if you end up with Bombay Belly


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Huh? why.




Seems interesting, compared to the OI graph of silver for Dec delivery which has a nice smooth down-trend since Oct.

Gold OI looks more like the Copper OI.


----------



## explod

> Swallow it all if you want... don't complain to me if you end up with Bombay Belly




Take it all with a grain of sault myself, just looking for your reasoning.

Gold is on a long term up trend and in the pm's I have backed silver, but the value of money or lack of it is my prime interest and although some of the pundits print and espouse mostly absolute rubbish there is always something to learn from it all.

The bears on pm's have the overall financial press on their side so one has to sift through the other to get some ballance, if that is possible of course.

Interesting.

And on gold, on the yearly peaks over the last 30 years, the period of mid December to second week in January has seen gold hit its 12 month peak 30%of the time.


----------



## Mr Z

sinner said:


> Can you link? I haven't heard about any of this...Scotia Bank has been in the mainstream press before due to silver delivery issues to that old Indian lady.
> 
> Snake oil abounds not only in both sides of the gold market but in all markets. Investors who replace due diligence with greed get their comeuppance. Those who have done their due diligence will care little for the practicalities of say, a conspiracy to suppress the price of gold. In fact as an opportunistic gold buyer that's exactly what I want, keep it down for as long as you like!
> 
> The conspiracy theories may be true, they may be not. Both options are largely immaterial to my interests as a conviction gold buyer.
> Regardless, am I one to ignore the likes of GATA when they break a story like Adrian Maguire? If Adrian Douglas wants to spend a lot of his time and hard work writing articles like this series:
> 
> https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081310.html
> https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-more-forensic-evidence-gold-silver-price-manipulation
> 
> am I one to simply ignore them? Until something convinces me otherwise, I am happy to give them the same attempt at balanced judgement as all the other analysts.
> 
> At least they don't sit on any fences




The Organ story was all over the place at the time... not sure where you'd get it now. Mebe the King World News Archives... he did an interview.

I have said before these markets are pushed around in the short term "for fun and profit" in the long run they have been working quite well IMO. 

The GATA camp refuse to allow for the legitimate industrial use of hedging, they engage in hyperbole and exaggeration to get their point across, some of which I believe is legitimate. In the process they manage to come off sounding quite loony, enough so to scare any thinking conservative investor away from gold. Goldbugs just don't seem to get that many commercial transactions that involve large quantities of metal that is not visible on the Comex are indeed hedged on the Comex. They carry on about it all being naked when that is not the case. The Comex was always a hedgers market, it was never a physical market... London for physical NY for hedging.

The Christian camp refuses to acknowledge that the big commercials can and do bat the price around for profit. The big commercials have a very good picture of the market structure and of the real commercial drivers...and they run their own book. The temptation in small markets like gold and silver to run stops etc to make easy money is just undeniable. Some of them had no real reason to be there other than speculation yet they where classed commercials, AIG comes to mind back when they where still in the silver market. These guys know how and when to apply pressure at the margin... especially back when they where trading against the mechanical funds that seemed to be so childishly predictable. Ted Butler has made many good observations about these markets.

IMO the truth lies in the middle somewhere but no one really has all the numbers to work it out. Nor do we need to... it will sort itself out and the patient will do well out of it. For all that and IMO gold and silver are quite well behaved technically speaking.



Take it or leave it!


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Seems interesting, compared to the OI graph of silver for Dec delivery which has a nice smooth down-trend since Oct.
> 
> Gold OI looks more like the Copper OI.




Nah thats normal. By the way. You do know, as a gold expert, looking at Dec to *Jan *is the wrong contract?


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Take it all with a grain of sault myself, just looking for your reasoning.
> 
> Gold is on a long term up trend and in the pm's I have backed silver, but the value of money or lack of it is my prime interest and although some of the pundits print and espouse mostly absolute rubbish there is always something to learn from it all.
> 
> The bears on pm's have the overall financial press on their side so one has to sift through the other to get some ballance, if that is possible of course.
> 
> Interesting.
> 
> And on gold, on the yearly peaks over the last 30 years, the period of mid December to second week in January has seen gold hit its 12 month peak 30%of the time.




Silver was the one... nice choice IMO. I have too much silver for any sane individual... LOL! Silver has a very sound bull case sans any manipulation argument or BS from crackpots. The damn crackpots actually work against us by putting well heeled conservative investors off the real bull case. I can well do without the Organs of this world... I will evaluate my own COT data thank you very much! Anyway... I am thinking that the strength will see us through till March to May area this year. Some of the options speculation seems to be backing that up....

We C


----------



## Mr Z

*One of the better pieces...*

... put out around the time the H. Organ (Mr Tool!) poo was being flung around.

Debunking the Precious Metals Fear-Mongering Campaign
Submitted by Erik Townsend on Sun, 18 Apr 2010 
Fighting GATA's lies with hard facts


----------



## GumbyLearner

Still holding physical. Almost doubled since purchase.
Will be getting more this month.
Great protection when the market is awash with so many $$$.

*China gold imports soar six-fold on investment demand*

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53292620101202

(Reuters) - Investors' rapidly-growing appetite for gold has pushed up China's gold imports six-fold in the first 10 months of the year, a Shanghai Gold Exchange official said on Thursday, highlighting the appeal of the precious metal as a hedging tool.

In a rare revelation of China's gold trade data, which is not published by customs, exchange chairman Shen Xiangrong said the country imported 209.72 tonnes of gold in the first ten months of the year.

The huge jump in gold imports comes against a backdrop of soaring gold prices, with spot metal touching a record high of more than $1,400 an ounce in November, and up by more than a quarter this year.

"Uncertainties in domestic and global economies, and increasing anticipation of inflation.....


----------



## GumbyLearner

http://www.independent.ie/national-...inal-links-of-cashforgold-stores-2449465.html

*Gardai probe potential criminal links of cash-for-gold stores*
By Edel Kennedy

http://www.independent.ie/national-...inal-links-of-cashforgold-stores-2449465.html

Monday December 06 2010

GARDAI are to investigate cash-for-gold stores over fears criminal gangs are using them to sell stolen goods.

Gardai are reporting an increase in the number of burglars who are ignoring flat-screen TVs and cameras when they break into homes -- and instead grabbing whatever jewellery they can find.

There is currently no legislation to regulate the industry or to force those who are selling the jewellery to prove that they obtained it from a legitimate source.

Justice Minister Dermot Ahern has now asked Garda Commissioner Fachtna Murphy to launch an investigation in to how much stolen gold is being sold through these shops. He has also asked them to investigate if criminal gangs are operating any of these stores as a front for selling stolen valuables and money laundering.

The garda report is not likely to be submitted until next year. Any changes introduced as a result will be done by Mr Ahern's successor after last week's announcement of his intention to retire from public office.

"I have formally asked the commissioner for his view as to the extent of criminal offences being committed in the transactions carried out at cash-for-gold locations," Mr Ahern said.

"In particular, the commissioner has been asked to examine whether the trade may be linked generally, or in particular areas, to burglary offences."

The cash-for-gold market has exploded in the past two years thanks to the precious metal's high price. It currently stands at â‚¬900 an ounce, up from â‚¬183 an ounce in December 1999.

Some people in dire economic straits are bringing their jewellery to these stores, while others are selling jewellery that has gone out of fashion. Last night, Labour TD Tommy Broughan welcomed the move by the minister.


----------



## Agentm

Mr Z said:


> Silver was the one... nice choice IMO. I have too much silver for any sane individual... LOL! Silver has a very sound bull case sans any manipulation argument or BS from crackpots. The damn crackpots actually work against us by putting well heeled conservative investors off the real bull case. I can well do without the Organs of this world... I will evaluate my own COT data thank you very much! Anyway... I am thinking that the strength will see us through till March to May area this year. Some of the options speculation seems to be backing that up....
> 
> We C


----------



## Whiskers

Agentm said:


>





****, eh!


----------



## Edwood

nice run up in the PM's you guy's will be enjoying this (slightly more than the cricket anyways : )


----------



## Mr Z

That dopey video is popping up everywhere! 

Not what you call documentary quality information... 

Will it be the first Internet based "viral cornering" of a market? LOL... if enough people swallow it, it could turn out to be an interesting experiment.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> That dopey video is popping up everywhere!
> 
> Not what you call documentary quality information...
> 
> Will it be the first Internet based "viral cornering" of a market? LOL... if enough people swallow it, it could turn out to be an interesting experiment.




Yep, I put it up first on the "Conspiracy Theorey Thread" and they took it all to heart.  Its just a cartoon for CS

Anyhow, good rise on gold but go silver.


----------



## Worthless Paper

a collection of gold price predictions posted by Bron on the PM blog this morn:


# $1650 - Philip Klapwijk, GFMS, 3 Dec: The consultancy forecasts silver prices to average around $30 an ounce in 2011, peaking at $35, he said, while gold would peak at around $1,600 to $1,650 per ounce, and average $1,400
# $1900 - Peter Krauth, Money Morning, 2 Dec: before 2011 closes out, I predict that each ounce of the prized "yellow metal" will be trading at $1,900.
# $1750 - Goldman Sachs, 1 Dec: we expect U.S. real interest rates to begin to rise in 2011, likely causing gold prices to peak near $1,750/oz in 2012.
# $5200 - Louise Yamada, LY Advisors, 15 Nov: gold most likely wouldn't represent a true bubble unless and until it gets to $5,200 an ounce within a couple of years.
# $2000 - Alpesh Patel, Praefinium Partners, 22 Oct: another obvious one is long gold over the next six to nine months as it hits $2,000 an ounce.
# $3500 - Robert Lenzner reporting on a “gold guru”, 18 Oct: gold will notch one new high after another all the way up to $3500.
# $1650 - Goldman Sachs, 13 Oct: revised its 12 month target from $1,365 to $1,650.
# $1500 - Jochen Hitzfeld, UniCredit, 12 Oct: the price of gold will spike to USD 1,500 per troy ounce in 2011.


----------



## sinner

Last nights move in bonds was big news.

The market basically told Bernanke to sod off?

Higher rates generally do not bode well for gold longs.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Last nights move in bonds was big news.
> 
> The market basically told Bernanke to sod off?
> 
> Higher rates generally do not bode well for gold longs.




Not sure I see that.   Could you elaborate?

The rate rise is the last thing the US wants or can handle but has to go that way to attract buyers as no one wants a bar of them.  And I think they will still fail as the bonds are all part of the ponzie party and the general market is catching on.  They went to virtual zero rates to stave off the GFC but in fact little has improved, some would say its worse.

Gold and silver may consolidate for awhile but that is all IMHO.  It now has investor momentum, being broadly discussed and jumped on on any dips.


----------



## Mr Z

Its as bullish as I can imagine for commodities and precious metals. The show starts in earnest next year IMO.


----------



## Worthless Paper

agree with you there Z, big year for PMs next year...the euro daisy chain should come under pressure soon. Nick @ sharelynx just had this to say:

moodys downgraded hungary
bulgarian bank delinquiencies doubled from 6 to 12%.......ditto for romania
greek banks own one third of bulgarian banks
bank austria and erste bank underwrote a huge pile of eastern european debt that is going bad quickly
bank austria, austria ´s largest bank, is owned by unicredit, italy ´s largest bank which also swallowed the massively hemorrhaging HBV bavarian bank
if unicredit falls, the italian state will fall and take down french and german banks with them


----------



## Whiskers

Mr Z said:


> Its as bullish as I can imagine for commodities and precious metals. The show starts in earnest next year IMO.




What show are you referring to, the price of gold soaring?

I'm thinking the POG and commodities generally will remain good in AUD and most other local currencies, or maybe even get a little better, but the USDX will rise a bit more for awhile and the USD price come off the boil.


----------



## explod

Whiskers said:


> What show are you referring to, the price of gold soaring?
> 
> I'm thinking the POG and commodities generally will remain good in AUD and most other local currencies, or maybe even get a little better, but the USDX will rise a bit more for awhile and the USD price come off the boil.




The QE and money printing in the US is now being openly discussed in the US press.

Gold will dip, as it did today, violently *in off market periods * and then be picked up by the rising demand during normal trade.

It may remain sideways after the drop this morning but it will be very short lived.  We are entering a period of high sentiment against the US$ which translates into higher gold prices.

Paper cash is trash.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Gold will dip, as it did today, violently *in off market periods * and then be picked up by the rising demand during normal trade.




Huh? 

dip in off market?? what you talking about Explod?


----------



## Mr Z

Whiskers said:


> What show are you referring to, the price of gold soaring?
> 
> I'm thinking the POG and commodities generally will remain good in AUD and most other local currencies, or maybe even get a little better, but the USDX will rise a bit more for awhile and the USD price come off the boil.




Take a look at the OI in out of the money options in gold into mid next year. I don't think that the USDX rallying will kill this party.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Huh?
> 
> dip in off market?? what you talking about Explod?




I think the reference is to the NY Globex session after the Comex closes. It has been the scene of many sharp price changes in the past, raids if you like, the liquidiy is normally thin so I guess it is a cheap way to buy a big move. However last night looked quite steady down from the Comex open, all about the USD, with more to come tonight by the looks of things a the moment.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> I think the reference is to the NY Globex session after the Comex closes.




Thats pattern as I have said many time before is a standard pattern in all markets during bull runs. Big moves during out of hours trading, then back filling during high volume sessions. It happens in equities and  other commods as well. Of course if a normal pattern happens in PMs and its down its a conspiracy.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats pattern as I have said many time before is a standard pattern in all markets during bull runs. Big moves during out of hours trading, then back filling during high volume sessions. It happens in equities and  other commods as well. Of course if a normal pattern happens in PMs and its down its a conspiracy.




I stated, "...in off market periods"  where is the conspiracy?   

This is just how the gold and silver prices have behaved for years now, but in the last six months the dips are quickly filled during what are regarded as normal trading time on its 24 hour circuit.

Of course the past is no predictor, we just have a good trend.

Where's  the problem ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I stated, "...in off market periods"  where is the conspiracy?



 Actually you stated,



explod said:


> Gold will dip, *as it did today*, violently in off market periods




Clearly I do not understand the English language. As your sentence made reference to dip, "off" market periods and then used the inclusive "as it did today". Where clearly the falls where during the High vol Comex hours.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually you stated,
> 
> 
> 
> Clearly I do not understand the English language. As your sentence made reference to dip, "off" market periods and then used the inclusive "as it did today". Where clearly the falls where during the High vol Comex hours.




Well would you look at that. It went up but it went down again. Unbelievable! :


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Here it comes - hyperinflation!!!

http://watch.bnn.ca/squeezeplay/december-2010/squeezeplay-december-8-2010/#clip386602

Stock up on freeze dried food and ammo


----------



## GumbyLearner

The Big Bank Theory - Excerpt from The Daily Show


----------



## nukz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Here it comes - hyperinflation!!!
> 
> http://watch.bnn.ca/squeezeplay/december-2010/squeezeplay-december-8-2010/#clip386602
> 
> Stock up on freeze dried food and ammo




What i'm interested in is the last time the US had hyper-inflation, what effect did that have on Australia?


----------



## GumbyLearner

nukz said:


> What i'm interested in is the last time the US had hyper-inflation, what effect did that have on Australia?




That's not an easy question to answer. I'm not a historian.
But the economics of Australia around that time were centered around the 
Robertson Land Acts in an attempt to break up the domination of land holdings by free settlers "squatters". In the prior decade there was the gold rush of course. And then there was the collapse of commodity prices and the crash of the Federal Bank in the 1890's.

What effect it did have in the last real hyper-inflationary event in America was a huge jump in the Lerner Commodity Price Index. 


During the Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress authorized the printing of paper currency called continental currency. These easily counterfeited notes depreciated rapidly, giving rise to the expression *"not worth a continental."
*
*Between January 1861 and April 1865, the Lerner Commodity Price Index of leading cities in the eastern Confederacy states increased from 100 to over 9000.* As the U.S. Civil War dragged on the Confederate States of America dollar had less and less value, until it was almost worthless by the last few months of the war. 

http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/weidenmier.finance.confederacy.us

To dismiss this as some US-centric problem that won't effect Australian prices is a bit pre-mature I believe. Because back then not all commodity prices were denominationally fixed and universally traded in US dollars.

Considering all of these commodities are now valued and traded in US Dollars

Corn 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	C/ZC (Electronic)
Corn 	EURONEXT 	50 tons 	EMA
Oats 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	O/ZO (Electronic)
Rough Rice 	CBOT 	2000 cwt 	RR
Soybeans 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	S
Rapeseed 	EURONEXT 	50 tons 	ECO
Soybean Meal 	CBOT 	100 short tons 	SM/ZM (Electronic)
Soybean Oil 	CBOT 	60,000 lb 	BO/ZO (Electronic)
Wheat 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	W/ZW (Electronic)
Cocoa 	NYBOT 	10 tons 	CC
Coffee C 	NYBOT 	37,500 lb 	KC
Cotton No.2 	NYBOT 	50,000 lb 	CT
Sugar No.11 	NYBOT 	112,000 lb 	SB
Sugar No.14 	NYBOT 	112,000 lb 	SE

Livestock and meat
Commodity 	Contract Size 	Currency 	Main Exchange 	Trading Symbol
Lean Hogs 	40,000 lb (20 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	LH
Frozen Pork Bellies 	40,000 lb (20 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	PB
Live Cattle 	40,000 lb (20 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	LC
Feeder Cattle 	50,000 lb (25 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	FC

Commodity 	Main Exchange 	Contract Size 	Trading Symbol
WTI Crude Oil 	NYMEX, ICE 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	CL (NYMEX), WTI (ICE)
Brent Crude 	ICE 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	B
Ethanol 	CBOT 	29,000 U.S. gal 	AC (Open Auction) ZE (Electronic)
Natural Gas 	NYMEX 	10,000 mmBTU 	NG
Heating Oil 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	HO
Gulf Coast Gasoline 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	LR
RBOB Gasoline (reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending) 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	RB
Propane 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	PN

Precious metals
Commodity 	Unit 	Currency 	Main Exchange
Gold 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX
Platinum 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX
Palladium 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX
Silver 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX

Industrial metals
Commodity 	Unit 	Currency 	Main Exchange
Copper 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange, New York
Lead 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
Zinc 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
Tin 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
Aluminium 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange, New York
Aluminium alloy 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
Nickel 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
Cobalt 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
Molybdenum 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
Recycled steel 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	Rotterdam (source?) 
*************************************************

Anyway. If any astute investors, traders or history buffs out there want to enlighten me further or point out any errors in my amateur reasoning then please do so. 

I'm only here to learn after all.

Cheers
gumby.


----------



## Trembling Hand

GumbyLearner said:


> To dismiss this as some US-centric problem that won't effect Australian prices is a bit pre-mature I believe. Because back then not all commodity prices were denominationally fixed and universally traded in US dollars.
> 
> Considering all of these commodities are now valued and traded in US Dollars




Gumby I'm not sure what your point is? Commodities are priced in US dollars. US dollars go down our AU dollar goes up offsetting the increase, give or take a bit, in the US priced commodities.







Cannot find a long term one for Oz but its been around $1:25 for what? 2 years?


----------



## GumbyLearner

GumbyLearner said:


> That's not an easy question to answer. I'm not a historian.
> But the economics of Australia around that time were centered around the
> Robertson Land Acts in an attempt to break up the domination of land holdings by free settlers "squatters". In the prior decade there was the gold rush of course. And then there was the collapse of commodity prices and the crash of the Federal Bank in the 1890's.
> 
> What effect it did have in the last real hyper-inflationary event in America was a huge jump in the Lerner Commodity Price Index.
> 
> 
> During the Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress authorized the printing of paper currency called continental currency. These easily counterfeited notes depreciated rapidly, giving rise to the expression *"not worth a continental."
> *
> *Between January 1861 and April 1865, the Lerner Commodity Price Index of leading cities in the eastern Confederacy states increased from 100 to over 9000.* As the U.S. Civil War dragged on the Confederate States of America dollar had less and less value, until it was almost worthless by the last few months of the war.
> 
> http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/weidenmier.finance.confederacy.us
> 
> To dismiss this as some US-centric problem that won't effect Australian prices is a bit pre-mature I believe. Because back then not all commodity prices were denominationally fixed and universally traded in US dollars.
> 
> Considering all of these commodities are now valued and traded in US Dollars
> 
> Corn 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	C/ZC (Electronic)
> Corn 	EURONEXT 	50 tons 	EMA
> Oats 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	O/ZO (Electronic)
> Rough Rice 	CBOT 	2000 cwt 	RR
> Soybeans 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	S
> Rapeseed 	EURONEXT 	50 tons 	ECO
> Soybean Meal 	CBOT 	100 short tons 	SM/ZM (Electronic)
> Soybean Oil 	CBOT 	60,000 lb 	BO/ZO (Electronic)
> Wheat 	CBOT 	5000 bu 	W/ZW (Electronic)
> Cocoa 	NYBOT 	10 tons 	CC
> Coffee C 	NYBOT 	37,500 lb 	KC
> Cotton No.2 	NYBOT 	50,000 lb 	CT
> Sugar No.11 	NYBOT 	112,000 lb 	SB
> Sugar No.14 	NYBOT 	112,000 lb 	SE
> 
> Livestock and meat
> Commodity 	Contract Size 	Currency 	Main Exchange 	Trading Symbol
> Lean Hogs 	40,000 lb (20 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	LH
> Frozen Pork Bellies 	40,000 lb (20 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	PB
> Live Cattle 	40,000 lb (20 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	LC
> Feeder Cattle 	50,000 lb (25 tons) 	USD ($) 	Chicago Mercantile Exchange 	FC
> 
> Commodity 	Main Exchange 	Contract Size 	Trading Symbol
> WTI Crude Oil 	NYMEX, ICE 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	CL (NYMEX), WTI (ICE)
> Brent Crude 	ICE 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	B
> Ethanol 	CBOT 	29,000 U.S. gal 	AC (Open Auction) ZE (Electronic)
> Natural Gas 	NYMEX 	10,000 mmBTU 	NG
> Heating Oil 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	HO
> Gulf Coast Gasoline 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	LR
> RBOB Gasoline (reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending) 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	RB
> Propane 	NYMEX 	1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) 	PN
> 
> Precious metals
> Commodity 	Unit 	Currency 	Main Exchange
> Gold 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX
> Platinum 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX
> Palladium 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX
> Silver 	troy ounce 	USD ($) 	NYMEX
> 
> Industrial metals
> Commodity 	Unit 	Currency 	Main Exchange
> Copper 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange, New York
> Lead 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
> Zinc 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
> Tin 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
> Aluminium 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange, New York
> Aluminium alloy 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
> Nickel 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
> Cobalt 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
> Molybdenum 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	London Metal Exchange
> Recycled steel 	Metric Ton 	USD ($) 	Rotterdam (source?)
> *************************************************
> 
> Anyway. If any astute investors, traders or history buffs out there want to enlighten me further or point out any errors in my amateur reasoning then please do so.
> 
> I'm only here to learn after all.
> 
> Cheers
> gumby.




Furthermore, to my above post you would also need to consider to what degree supply and demand was affected by military conflict, drought, crop failure, industrial disruption, rationing etc.. affected prices at that time. And what part of the effect of that was apportioned to currency devaluation and trade that was strictly domiciled to the agricultural south of the US. 

I'm not aware of any hyperinflationary event in Australia. 

It seems difficult to correlate the effect of this period of American History 1861 - 1865 to same time frame in Australia. Yet there was definitely far less trade between the US and Australia back then. Tariffs were all the rage  back then.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Trembling Hand said:


> Gumby I'm not sure what your point is?




I'm not trying to make a point TH. I was referring to the hypothetical posted by nukz. Attempted to find something analogous to a US hyperinflatory event (Which I have 1861-1865) and compare and contrast to the same time frame in Australia. As of yet I have no actual data or empirical evidence to compare this historical event to the effect on Australian prices at that time.

I did notice recently that China and Russia have agreed to trade in Rubles and Kwai. 

http://projectworldawareness.com/2010/11/putin-more-trade-with-china-in-local-currencies/


----------



## GumbyLearner

nukz said:


> What i'm interested in is the last time the US had hyper-inflation, what effect did that have on Australia?




If you have a read of the introduction forwarded by Jim Rogers: *Hot Commodities How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market* it may give you some insight into the effect of hyperinflation on US & UK trade at that time.

I own a copy myself. Which I swapped with a fellow bookworm.

Here's a excerpt:

"....And my abiding interest in history and politics reminded me of what was happening in the rest of the world affected prices on Wall Street. Knowing that War between the States in the 1860s cut off supplies of cotton to England, pushing prices so high that soon the English were planting cotton everywhere they could scrape up the soil, was extremely useful in understanding why world commodity prices were rising again more than 100 years later." at ix INTRODUCTION.

Cotton is now at 150 year highs. And certainly not due to war. 

Look at Oil. Last big field discovery 40 years ago.

Look at gold. Declining discoveries and new finds in geopolitically unstable areas.

Look at copper. Also tapped out deposits in South America with lower grade ore. 

Look at the GFC. Many small and medium miners can't get financing to mine.

Combine these factors with "quantitative easing". And the flood of cheap money into China.?????

Maybe not hyperinflation but certainly prices will go up.

I recommend reading what people like Jim Rogers have to say. The man is no slouch when it comes to analysing the fundamentals of commod pricing.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

This is not investment advice, I'm just a mere amateur who relies on common sense to get by.

Cheers
gumby


----------



## So_Cynical

This is pretty funny...and a little scary at the end.

Why People Don't Buy Gold 
~


----------



## nukz

Thanks Gumby loads of information just what i was after  i actually have Rogers book but are yet to read it im quite a big fan of Jimmy he's quite down to earth thats what i found good about him.


----------



## GumbyLearner

nukz said:


> Thanks Gumby loads of information just what i was after  i actually have Rogers book but are yet to read it im quite a big fan of Jimmy he's quite down to earth thats what i found good about him.




He has his own fund! Doesn't present as a smoke screen bull**** artist as yet.
The best thing about his fund is that most etfs haven't done well for the last 10 years. This guy started like 6 months before the GFC!


----------



## GumbyLearner

If you don't believe in a bull market for gold.

Get a playstation bitches!


----------



## GumbyLearner

So_Cynical said:


> This is pretty funny...and a little scary at the end.
> 
> Why People Don't Buy Gold
> ~




Great post So_Cynical.

Certainly food for thought.


----------



## Edwood

divergence on gold seems to be getting worse fwiw....  could see a large correction around the corner


----------



## Mr Z

Yes IMO we are going to correct, not what I call large, maybe 1300 area.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> divergence on gold seems to be getting worse fwiw....  could see a large correction around the corner






Mr Z said:


> Yes IMO we are going to correct, not what I call large, maybe 1300 area.




Some very stinky action going on in Asian arvo session and US/Euro Futs. Gold and silver taking it too.

Come on boys help out JP Morgan and throw a bit out the window.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on boys help out JP Morgan and throw a bit out the window.




You are a very naughty boy!


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Yes IMO we are going to correct, not what I call large, maybe 1300 area.




In my opinion we wont'.   Consolidation may continue between 1350 and 1400for awhile but US$ index is struggling to hold the gain it made the last week or so above .80

The other is the dribble coming from Nadler of Kitco and news in the Financial Review that we have hit a double top.  All past signs of a fresh break to the upside.

However we shall see.


----------



## Mr Z

You are splitting hairs 1350, 1300.... jeezzzzz correction, consolidation, from the highs 1350 counts as a correction for me. 1325 is a possible stopping point but the chart looks like 129x would be healthy.

Watch out for that USDX, it still has some legs, maybe into Jan as the cover thy bonus then redeploy moves are on. It could do 83 easy, mebe 85-86 area.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> You are splitting hairs 1350, 1300.... jeezzzzz correction, consolidation, from the highs 1350 counts as a correction for me. 1325 is a possible stopping point but the chart looks like 129x would be healthy.
> 
> Watch out for that USDX, it still has some legs, maybe into Jan as the cover thy bonus then redeploy moves are on. It could do 83 easy, mebe 85-86 area.




Apologies if I sounded a bit blunt.   You may well be correct.  I am just following the trend lines not only in gold but, the US$index and a sort of sentiment averaged on a number of pundits I have become accustomed to read from both the bull and bear side.  Will try to be more specific.

I look more at longer term charts except when a correction is on/underway.  In my more medium term a change is not really evident at this time.

Of course I am not trading the p/m's just hold physical for the long term.

Your posts and content is very much appreciated.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Your posts and content is very much appreciated.




As are yours explod

*Gold Demand, Mini-Contract Trade in Korea to Climb, Exchange Operator Says*

Gold demand in South Korea is set to increase as consumers buy more bars and boost investments as currencies weaken, according to Korea Exchange Inc., which expects increased trading in its so-called mini futures contract.

“Koreans have more interest in gold than other commodities, regarding it as an investment tool,” Kim In Soo, an executive director at the operator of equities and futures markets, said in an interview yesterday. Korea Exchange is set to start a spot market for bullion in 2012, Kim said, confirming an earlier plan. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...in-korea-to-climb-exchange-operator-says.html


----------



## Mr Z

Hey Explod

No need to be sorry... we can't see the future so this is all WAG's.

The 1300 area is projected by a trendline on the weekly chart running back into the 2008 lows. It has been tested 4 to 6 occasions (depending how you count them) and although we are not coming from the top of the channel it infers we are looking tired here... as noted by Ed divergences are in place and we are coming off sentiment extremes by the looks of it. Anyway, IF we correct at a similar 'speed' to the last few times it puts us in the 1300 area by as late as early Feb 2011. If we go harder 1250 is on the table for this month. I figure we will probably test 1300, some limit support should be offered up around the mid 129x's and if we are near trend at the time it should (LOL... he says with total confidence) hold up.

That said I have not written off the current consolidation action in gold yet, I'm more concerned about the USDX's potential to rally further which may not translate into gold weakness depending on what developments we have in the Euro zone. It is just an idea I have, no real solid evidence, but I think that a lot of money is 'going home' and strategies are being revised for the new year which ushers in a new performance measuring period for the fund jockeys. Anyway, after QEII, I think the funds are going to go for the Asia growth / inflation defensive plays which spells commodities and related plays in my world. The irony here, I suppose, is that given commodities are traded in USD this should lend some degree of support for it against other currencies. I think that is what we saw the start of in November. How much support I don't know, I guess it will be tempered by the flip side of that trade. I would be grateful if it results in a steadier AUD or dare I wish, weaker AUD.

Anyway... I think trading will be thin and we are in a strategy transition which could produce some interesting results.

But then mebe that is all so much BS 



explod said:


> Apologies if I sounded a bit blunt.   You may well be correct.  I am just following the trend lines not only in gold but, the US$index and a sort of sentiment averaged on a number of pundits I have become accustomed to read from both the bull and bear side.  Will try to be more specific.
> 
> I look more at longer term charts except when a correction is on/underway.  In my more medium term a change is not really evident at this time.
> 
> Of course I am not trading the p/m's just hold physical for the long term.
> 
> Your posts and content is very much appreciated.


----------



## GumbyLearner

http://personalfinance.iafrica.com/moreinvest/694255.html

Holders of Krugerrands have done well out of the rising dollar gold price.  Should the rand weaken and gold remain steady, they can reap a nice windfall.

The continually rising gold price has caught a great number of investors napping. Those who called the tune, however, have made heart-warming profits. As we go to press, the price of gold per ounce is at US$ 1406 – a far cry from 1968 when it was $35, or even 1980 when it had risen to $850.

Bearing in mind that old stockbrokers’ adage that "the bell doesn’t ring", heralding the top or bottom of a cycle, the question in many minds is whether gold – and platinum – will continue to rise and, if so, how to profit from it.

South Africans are not permitted to hold physical gold, which is about as silly as the continuation of exchange controls when global investors are pouring money into this country to take advantage of our relatively high interest rates. Gold shares are one obvious avenue, but they have not echoed the meteoric climb of gold itself. As gold analysts point out, higher gold prices don’t always mean higher margins; investors have to be concerned about management, operational cost efficiency and underlying inflation. Another option, of course, is to hold gold coins such as the Krugerrand, which is legal tender, and the British sovereign. Yet another is the exchange traded fund New Gold.


----------



## sharetipsinfo

Gold is trading at Rs. 20530 in India which is too high now and in recent past was trading much higher. We can see new high in the price of gold soon. So one should buy it at every decline. Currently gold is in correction mode for very short term.


----------



## explod

A solid summary of the situation behind the strengthening gold and silver prices in my view and also makes a good case that a correction is unlikely.

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2010/MPLID_112610_pg401Emb.pdf


----------



## Mr Z

Sprott is a salesman... don't get me wrong, I like him and agree with a lot of what he says BUT his short term calls are not great.

We are in quiet time, in all likelihood the Comex locals will come out to play and run as many stops as they can while they can. If they get the opening they will exploit it, this week we will see if they get the opening, looking at the 10 year note and the USDX chart I suspect they will get covering fire into the new year.



JMO


----------



## explod

Have found the quiet time has made little difference in the past.  In the last 30 years the festive season till about the second week of january have seen some the highest rises on 12 occasions.  In that I am saying the best up spikes over each 12 month period.

I did fair bit of research on this aspect off "the Privateer" newsletter a few years back and posted it on this thread.  Not a subscriber at the moment so cannot recheck it.

And in spite of what is said about certain writers and where they sit in business, the important aspect is the rationale.  Which says, the US fed are doing the wrong thing, it is becoming obvious to more investors which is driving up demand for gold and silver.

On top of all that it is in an uptrend and as an investor that is all I am interested.  If the trend was to decisively change I would be out and sold as fast as I could front my metals dealer.   About 1 hour.


----------



## Mr Z

They run stops both ways! What do you think the little runs ups at this time of year are about? My bet this year is down.


----------



## TabJockey

explod said:


> Have found the quiet time has made little difference in the past.  In the last 30 years the festive season till about the second week of january have seen some the highest rises on 12 occasions.  In that I am saying the best up spikes over each 12 month period.
> 
> I did fair bit of research on this aspect off "the Privateer" newsletter a few years back and posted it on this thread.  Not a subscriber at the moment so cannot recheck it.
> 
> And in spite of what is said about certain writers and where they sit in business, the important aspect is the rationale.  Which says, the US fed are doing the wrong thing, it is becoming obvious to more investors which is driving up demand for gold and silver.
> 
> On top of all that it is in an uptrend and as an investor that is all I am interested.  If the trend was to decisively change I would be out and sold as fast as I could front my metals dealer.   About 1 hour.




What sort of trend are you looking at though? 1 month? 1 year? 10 years? 30 years? 400 years(I have seen this quoted, its hard to see how its relevant)?


----------



## explod

It has been in a solid uptrend for 10 years.   My stop would be around US$1250, that would signal a change in the trend.  I have been invested in physical for 6 years.

What is not relevant TGabJockey ?

Mr Z I am not a betting man.  On current sentiment I see it sideways to up if there is a change.  Every time it goes toward US$1350 the buyers move in.  This has been a feature the last few months.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Mr Z I am not a betting man.  On current sentiment I see it sideways to up if there is a change.  Every time it goes toward US$1350 the buyers move in.  This has been a feature the last few months.




That is a bet... 

and every time it peaks 1400 the sellers move in. This has been a feature of the last two months. :

I look at a lot of charts, I look at a lot of gold charts.... this one, to me, looks like it is exhausting and needs a correction. If it does not I will be concerned, it would be healthier to give a little back here than it would be to charge on. We need to shake the weaker hands out and find a nice solid floor. Like I said I am only looking for 1300 or so and back to trend from the GFC low... it would be perfectly normal movement. 1250 would probably be the worst of it, if it came to that.

Trust me, the locals will try and run this market around for a few weeks... that is what they do when it gets quiet, they go hunting stops and they are very often successful in flushing some action out.


----------



## TabJockey

I meant that the 400 year gold trend is not relevant.


----------



## explod

I have never thought of  a 400 year trend, nor have I noticed anyone else here mention same.

Gold has been a basic form of monetary exchange for 6000 years though.  Paper money comes and then floats away in the breeze as empires crash.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Gold Fibonacci Analysis - 12.19.2010 *




endlessmountain | December 19, 2010 | 31 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## GumbyLearner

Gold to trade in 2011 between $1050-1100 according to Doug Kass.
I hope he's right, I'll be ready to buy more when the weak hands fold on the table.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From cnbc website

Just when you thought it was safe to turn on the lights – there’s Doug Kass blowing into his noise maker and yelling,"Surprise!"

We know what you’re thinking… we shouldn’t have been startled.

All month long Kass, a widely followed strategist and president of Seabreeze Partners, has been revealing new surprises from his annual list of Surprises for 2011 on CNBC’s Fast Money.

The latest follow.

SURPRISE #9

Looks like gold bugs are about to encounter some pretty strong insecticide in the guise of falling prices.

"My first forecast is contrary to the high price forecasts by many of the brokerages," he says.

Next year Kass expects the price of gold to plunge $250 an ounce in a 4 week period with gold counted among the worse performing asset classes in the new year.

Sure you can point to a slew of catalysts to take gold higher (deflation, inflation, peace, turmoil) but Kass thinks another catalyst trumps all others– too many bulls and not enough bears.

”The price of gold has risen from about $250/oz eleven years ago to about $1370/oz today - compounding at over a 16% rate annually,” he tells our producers ahead of the broadcast.

"As a result, investing in gold has become the sine qua non for hedge hoggers and other institutional investors - and in due course gold has become a favored investment among individual investors."

Simply stated gold has become a crowded trade.  "Wide prices swings are what to expect in 2011," he counsels.

Click here for the CNBC talkback excerpt ->>> http://www.cnbc.com/id/40754977


----------



## GumbyLearner

GumbyLearner said:


> Gold to trade in 2011 between $1050-1100 according to Doug Kass.
> I hope he's right, I'll be ready to buy more when the weak hands fold on the table.
> 
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> From cnbc website
> 
> Just when you thought it was safe to turn on the lights – there’s Doug Kass blowing into his noise maker and yelling,"Surprise!"
> 
> We know what you’re thinking… we shouldn’t have been startled.
> 
> All month long Kass, a widely followed strategist and president of Seabreeze Partners, has been revealing new surprises from his annual list of Surprises for 2011 on CNBC’s Fast Money.
> 
> The latest follow.
> 
> SURPRISE #9
> 
> Looks like gold bugs are about to encounter some pretty strong insecticide in the guise of falling prices.
> 
> "My first forecast is contrary to the high price forecasts by many of the brokerages," he says.
> 
> Next year Kass expects the price of gold to plunge $250 an ounce in a 4 week period with gold counted among the worse performing asset classes in the new year.
> 
> Sure you can point to a slew of catalysts to take gold higher (deflation, inflation, peace, turmoil) but Kass thinks another catalyst trumps all others– too many bulls and not enough bears.
> 
> ”The price of gold has risen from about $250/oz eleven years ago to about $1370/oz today - compounding at over a 16% rate annually,” he tells our producers ahead of the broadcast.
> 
> "As a result, investing in gold has become the sine qua non for hedge hoggers and other institutional investors - and in due course gold has become a favored investment among individual investors."
> 
> Simply stated gold has become a crowded trade.  "Wide prices swings are what to expect in 2011," he counsels.
> 
> Click here for the CNBC talkback excerpt ->>> http://www.cnbc.com/id/40754977




Check out his 2010 predictions here

Yeah right and check out some of his 2010 predictions here....

http://wallstreetpit.com/13213-doug-kass-predictions-for-2010

Doug Kass’ Predictions for 2010
By editor|Dec 28, 2009, 12:35 PM|Author's Website  

Hedge fund manager and financial columnist Doug Kass shares in this CNBC interview his 20 possible outlying events for the coming year.

According to Kass:
*1. Corporate profits soar 100% in the first quarter of 2010 from a year ago, while GDP jumps 4.5%. *(wrong)

2. Housing and jobs fail to revive. (right)

*3. The U.S. dollar explodes higher. *(wrong)

*4. The price of gold topples.
“Gold is going to break $900,” he said. “It’s one of the most crowded trades.” *(absurdly wrong)

crowded trade my ****
Cheers
gumby

DYOR


----------



## Mr Z

If he hasn't made money in gold and didn't call the beginning of the bull then why listen to him?

Every year these guys pop up, who have completely missed a market that has compounded at 17% for a while now, and say it's all over.... with all due respect most of them have not got a clue what it is all about. When they get bullish then worry...

Who is Mr Kass anyway?


----------



## Buckfont

Mr Z said:


> If he hasn't made money in gold and didn't call the beginning of the bull then why listen to him?
> 
> Every year these guys pop up, who have completely missed a market that has compounded at 17% for a while now, and say it's all over.... with all due respect most of them have not got a clue what it is all about. When they get bullish then worry...
> 
> Who is Mr Kass anyway?




Came across this, this morning. Never heard of this guy either. Funny Mr Z how this arrives in my in box after reading your above post. Are we all doomed

http://seekingalpha.com/article/242886-doug-kass-gold-will-fall-25-in-2011?source=email_watchlist


----------



## GumbyLearner

Buckfont said:


> Came across this, this morning. Never heard of this guy either. Funny Mr Z how this arrives in my in box after reading your above post. Are we all doomed
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/242886-doug-kass-gold-will-fall-25-in-2011?source=email_watchlist




Yeah gold has become a crowded trade alright. Especially if you consider the combined PM investors in Chindia combined. But remember this imposter said it was crowded before China got into the game.

Kass is nothing more than a greedy deceptive down-ramper who has no interest in the average mum and dad investor, but lining the pockets of himself and his friends.

I would like to see his short positions in gold for the entirety of 2010. 

Ignore him. He is a BS artist!! 

And those same ass-clowns on CNBC have been calling Peter Schiff a moron for almost 1/2 a decade. 

Shame Kass was 12 months late in calling it a crowded trade and that the gold price would drop to $900 US an oz. And a rally in US dollar.  You must be kidding me!!

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/China-to-beat-India-grab-No-1-gold-slot/720068/

*China's gold import has soared to a record 209 tonnes this year, putting it on track to overtake India as the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal and become a significant force in global bullion prices.
*
*The surge comes at a time when Chinese investors look for insurance against rising inflation and currency appreciation, the 'Financial Times' reported.
*
*China, already the largest bullion miner, imported more than 209 tonnes of gold during the first 10 months of the year, a five-fold increase from an estimate of 45 tonnes last year, paving the way for Beijing to overtake India as the world's largest consumer of gold. *
________________________________________________________________________
Anyway, where are the deflationists now?


----------



## Buckfont

Hear hear, Gumby. He kinda reminded of those Nth Korean TV presenters. Full of noise and little substance


----------



## GumbyLearner

Look CNBC still treat Schiff like he's an uneducated ill-informed twit. 

Check this vid from December 15, 2010

http://www.europac.net/media/tv_interviews/peter_schiff_december_15_2010_cnbc_–_fast_money

Notice how they ask for his advice at the end of the interview.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Buckfont said:


> Hear hear, Gumby. He kinda reminded of those Nth Korean TV presenters. Full of noise and little substance






GumbyLearner said:


> Ignore him. He is a BS artist!!




LOL Guys. I know this is never the thread to bring up anything like the truth but you dudes haven't a clue.

He runs a many many many Million dollar Hedge fund with a very good record over a long period.

As for his media calls I've been following his 10 themes for next year stuff since about 05. I think they are running at an accuracy of about 60 %. I'm no huge fan but his stuff is worth a think at least. At least he runs money rather than the Buy buy Buy drivel or You-tube "journalism" this thread collects.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL Guys. I know this is never the thread to bring up anything like the truth but you dudes haven't a clue.
> 
> He runs a many many many Million dollar Hedge fund with a very good record over a long period.
> 
> As for his media calls I've been following his 10 themes for next year stuff since about 05. I think they are running at an accuracy of about 60 %. I'm no huge fan but his stuff is worth a think at least. At least he runs money rather than the Buy buy Buy drivel or You-tube "journalism" this thread collects.




Fair point TH. *The guy runs a hedge fund and I don't. But also I don't get paid to give advice. He does.
*
You could be right about me not having a clue. Except that I bought bullion at $US770
an ounce and still hold. I also bought a range of Aussie stocks most of which pay btw 6-11% annual dividends that have now doubled or tripled in the last 18-24 months. 

But hey what would I know. I'm as thick as brick.

I'm happy to wait another twelve months to see if Mr.Kass is right. Are you?


----------



## Trembling Hand

GumbyLearner said:


> Fair point TH. *The guy runs a hedge fund and I don't. But also I don't get paid to give advice. He does.
> *
> 
> 
> But hey what would I know. I'm as thick as brick.




But doesn't your buddy Schiff get paid for his advice? also runs money but with a shocking record?? yet his stuff is good?? 

My point was that Kass from when I was following him mainly in 07-09 was spot on with timing. But cuz his bearish on gold his crap. Oh well anyone got a Youtube???


----------



## GumbyLearner

Trembling Hand said:


> But cuz his bearish on gold his crap.




You got it in one there buddy. This is the gold thread. And yes correctamundo, he's late 2009 call for gold was complete crap. 

Also, don't forget when all the major investment advisory network muppets were telling everyone the financials were safe in 2008. Who was the contrarian that was repeatedly slammed by his misguided opponents (ala Jim Cramer, Ben Stein etc..) ? None, other than Schiff.

Buy Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch is great yada yada..... Get in while their cheap!


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



GumbyLearner said:


> This is the gold thread.




Here I have correctly labelled it for you.

By the way. I hope his right about half of his 2011 prediction, volatility.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



GumbyLearner said:


> You got it in one there buddy. This is the gold thread. And yes correctamundo, he's late 2009 call for gold was complete crap.
> 
> Also, don't forget when all the major investment advisory network muppets were telling everyone the financials were safe in 2008. Who was the contrarian that was repeatedly slammed by his misguided opponents (ala Jim Cramer, Ben Stein etc..) ? None, other than Schiff.
> 
> Buy Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch is great yada yada..... Get in while their cheap!




Oh Christ . Its pointless talking to you muppets. For Fark sake he runs a dedicated SHORT fund. He not only was massivively bearish in 07/08 unlike your drop dead cannot make money Schiff he DID make money shorting the wall street yada yada yada.

Thats my point. You have thrown his stuff out of the window without having a clue about his work. 

But thats what you get with 8000 odd post of confirmation bias "information".

Now where is Explod??


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



Trembling Hand said:


> Here I have correctly labelled it for you.
> 
> By the way. I hope his right about half of his 2011 prediction, volatility.




Sure. All power to you TH. 
Maybe you can trade it and maybe I can hold it.
At present, my stop loss is the paper in my wallet. 

And by the way, I noticed you changed the title to It ONLY GOES UP........ALWAYS!

Well, that's not true TH. It got smacked when the overleveraged Wall St players bailed on a lot of their holdings. It may happen again and become a buying opportunity for the immediate future.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



Trembling Hand said:


> Oh Christ . Its pointless talking to you muppets. For Fark sake he runs a dedicated SHORT fund.




Dedicated to what? SHORTING Gold in 2010?????

I can hear BAY 13 now. 

WHATTTT AAAA LOOOAAADDD OFFF RUBBBIIIIISSSHHHH !!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*

Lets move on. We might trip over some facts or knowledge and set a first for this thread if I have to explain everything to the Muppets.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



Trembling Hand said:


> Now where is Explod??




And where the heck is that Amory? 

Remember the guy with the US Civil War style grey T-bar Merv Hughes look-a-like MO?


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



GumbyLearner said:


> And where the heck is that Amory?
> 
> Remember the guy with the US Civil War style grey T-bar Merv Hughes look-a-like MO?




Lurking about Gumby.  Trying to figure the new site format actually.

Little to say really, great long term trend and at the moment a bit of consolidation over the holidays.

The economic fundamentals drive gold and anyone with half a head to think with can see that with the out of control printing of it means that paper cash is trash.

The problems of Europe are indeed dire but the highlighting of them in the New York Times is merely trying to deflect attention away from the hopeless debt situations in the US.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



explod said:


> Lurking about Gumby.  Trying to figure the new site format actually.




Do you personally know Amory?  Or are you Amory? 

Don't worry mate, I got your back.


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



GumbyLearner said:


> Do you personally know Amory?  Or are you Amory?
> 
> Don't worry mate, I got your back.




No my idiotic post ought to be deleted.   I grabbed the wrong quote, was responding to another.   Better not to wake me.  And thought T/H that you would certainly know better.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Because fiat is 'backless' & the amount in circulation is 'discretionary' it's ultimate demise is assured, as students of history can attest. What not is known is the timeline to destruction. So in the meantime the global default currency will always be the currency of last resort, until it's not. 

What I'm trying to say is that I think that the USD has already started a technical bull phase, however ephemeral. Gold has had a good run, be happy with it, but don't get blinded by the ultimate fundamentals. It will correct, but this will give me one last chance to 'go nuclear' with a 'fiat capitulation' entry into physical gold as I swap un-guarantee-able Aussie dollars held in my property debt bloated Aussie bank into gold. 

Even then gold will be just a temporary barter means of exchange until the next more convenient form of exchange is evolved?

I'm hoping for a 'crash' in gold. But unlike the crash in the equity markets (early 2011 as debt and insolvency cannot be ignored by Mr Market, who is currently hopelessly wrong and short sighted?) this will be a buying opportunity...........

There's also the issue of rising rates in the US - the Bernanke QE2 Call is getting blown out of the water - even though it's some sort of perverse trade, some people will be tempted to get 5% for 10YR T's, competition for gold short-term?

It will continue to BE, until it isn't?


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> He runs a many many many Million dollar Hedge fund with a very good record over a long period.




Yeah look... I have been listening to successful guys in denial about gold since 2001 or so. Sure they know their onions in certain areas but they are normally cretins when it comes to gold. There is a bias against gold in the Wall St mind set and that is a fact so you really need to be selective about who you listen too. There are a small number of sane commentators that have got this since the beginning, Kass is not in their number and we typically get one or two Kass's each year telling us it is over for gold...{yawn}. Unfortunately there are also a large number of insane pro gold commentators... they also need to be ignored, all they ever end up achieving is putting people off learning the real story and make gold look like a loony investment.

Anyway, no doubt gold will swing through a big range this year. As for it being the high for the 2011 on Jan 1, I seriously doubt it although I do expect weakness into Jan and possibly Feb with the new tax year beginning and some gains being taken off the table. If this where May/June then I'd be listening a little more closely... by the end of the year we may have hit his numbers but if we do we will have tried to tag 2k first.

Lets talk about it next October or so and see how it is going & let me know when Paulson sell's!


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> Because fiat is 'backless' & the amount in circulation is 'discretionary' it's ultimate demise is assured, as students of history can attest. What not is known is the timeline to destruction. So in the meantime the global default currency will always be the currency of last resort, until it's not.




Hmmmmm... it took Rome 200 years so I'd not be betting on anymore than a gold bull market and maybe some 'restructuring' on the global currency scene. It will be interesting to see how much pressure the Euro can bear and if the Amero will ever get up. I tend to think that the yank commentators are burying the Euro a little too soon.... there is a big vested interest there, I think that any crisis will be used to further integrate and consolidate the currecny by 'fixing' the issues. After all lets not forget that the majority of the power in this world wants to see this system continue in some similar form... I very much doubt they will ever go back to gold as some suggest. In fact I think it simply would not work given they way banking works and the growth that Asia is going through.


----------



## nukz

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



Trembling Hand said:


> Oh Christ . Its pointless talking to you muppets. For Fark sake he runs a dedicated SHORT fund. He not only was massivively bearish in 07/08 unlike your drop dead cannot make money Schiff he DID make money shorting the wall street yada yada yada.
> 
> Thats my point. You have thrown his stuff out of the window without having a clue about his work.
> 
> But thats what you get with 8000 odd post of confirmation bias "information".
> 
> Now where is Explod??




I've actually noticed the amout of bears on PM's have increased recently. Your right in that just 6 months ago the gold story was being played everywhere and all sorts of numbers where being predicted. 

I always think its abit worrying when you have ATM's being placed in shopping centres that sell gold bars.

For the price of gold to collapse thought woudn't that have to mean a explosion in the price of the USD. 

It's possible we are in quite a bubble, i think a important relationship will be the one between gold and oil. 

I'm qctually quite open to bears/bulls if we only ever heard people bullish on a particular investment i would say your living in 2008 investing in the Australian property market 

Trembling, your a futures guy. What do you see happening? i know you make allot of posts attempting to show your the big man blah blah but you never divulge any information about what you do? I had a look at your blog once it looked quite interesting, how about putting something in your blog about Pm's


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



Trembling Hand said:


> By the way. I hope his right about half of his 2011 prediction, volatility.




That much I agree with...!

Reportedly Kass's gold prediction for 2010 was...



> 4. The price of gold topples. Gold's price plummets to $900 an ounce by the beginning of second quarter 2010. Unhedged, publicly held gold companies report large losses, and the gold sector lies at the bottom of all major sector performers. Hedge fund manager John Paulson abandons his plan to bring a new dedicated gold hedge fund to market.




Now he'd have cost me plenty if I listened to him in 2009!


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



nukz said:


> I've actually noticed the amout of bears on PM's have increased recently. Your right in that just 6 months ago the gold story was being played everywhere and all sorts of numbers where being predicted.
> 
> I always think its abit worrying when you have ATM's being placed in shopping centres that sell gold bars.
> 
> For the price of gold to collapse thought woudn't that have to mean a explosion in the price of the USD.
> 
> It's possible we are in quite a bubble, i think a important relationship will be the one between gold and oil.
> 
> I'm qctually quite open to bears/bulls if we only ever heard people bullish on a particular investment i would say your living in 2008 investing in the Australian property market




Looking at the bull and bear cases I find the bears qualify their statements with some economic rationale, the bears do not.

Huge money printing efforts in the US now are even propping up the Dow.   The dilution of the dollar alone is sending gold higher and there are no economic signals that say this will stop.

So we have money dilution and as well the inflation adjustments that say gold is still cheap at these levels.

Of course as the US (Wall Street) is very desperate to hold their ponzies together as long as they can they are pumping the media to keep things looking okay and this particularly relates to gold as a higher gold price paints a perception that things are not quite right.

And of course we know are not.

The new trading year will be interesting.  I expect gold to remain at these levels till then.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



explod said:


> Looking at the bull and bear cases I find the bears qualify their statements with some economic rationale, the bears do not.




Is the bear a bull or a bear? Which bear is what?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Gold Price*



explod said:


> Of course as the US (Wall Street) is very desperate to hold their ponzies together as long as they can they are pumping the media to keep things looking okay and this particularly relates to gold as a higher gold price paints a perception that things are not quite right.
> 
> And of course we know are not.
> 
> The new trading year will be interesting.  I expect gold to remain at these levels till then.




Yes, all is good because the equity markets are going up, see . $5BILLION a day in QE has to be going somewhere?? I notice Rupert Murdocks' outlet's, WSJ and Marketwatch,  are cheerleading the 'recovery' with 'good news only - downplay bad news or the facts' headlines and articles via their compliant army of literary clones!

I'm expecting a correction in all markets pretty soon, even gold. That is premised on where US treasuries go and whether China has to re-value their currency to tame rampant inflation. Even if both issues are put on the sideline through rhetoric or respective QE programmes (yes, China has one too, it's just that it is using 'surplus' $USD's!), down the track there either has to be payback to creditors for higher risk via higher global rates or another 'call' on global taxpayers to start paying the debts down?

I don't think either will happen because the global financial system is intrinsically insolvent, if you measure that by avoiding debt pay back by paying with freshly printed money?

Then there's the sideshow of the QE main game - rising everything! Has anyone seen the price of oil lately? Oil up - stock market cheers!! Does it matter that it has just wiped out the effects/benefits of any stimulis that shows up in the GDP?

Does it matter that the GDP figures are a load of garbage too? No, market goes up! Inventory rebuild over, watch the next GDP figure to be 'unexpectedly' worse?

I hope it goes to $900, or whatever figure someone has plucked from their, um, crystal ball, coz I'll be buying!


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



nukz said:


> Trembling, your a futures guy. What do you see happening? i know you make allot of posts attempting to show your the big man blah blah but you never divulge any information about what you do?



Oh really? like? Maybe because I have to spend all my time calling the bugs on their "facts". We never get to what I.

What do I see happening? Same as I have said for some time. Gold, not the gold miners but gold, sucks if you're in AUD. It made a break out high nearly 2 years ago and hasn't looked like taking out that high again. So as a general statement it may be in a long term up trend but its hasn't rewarded holders since Jan 09. 

If/when it takes out the high we can see how high it pops and you guys can all gloat about how I should of bought the lows. But if I wanted to play the destruction of the USD at *this stage * I would prefer "other" stuff (oil, china proxy currenceies & equity markets, wheat etc.) or just plain old doing the business that I do every day, trading the swings and round-a-bouts for worthless cash.

Just don't think golds time is here yet. 



Mr Z said:


> Yeah look... I have been listening to successful guys in denial about gold since 2001 or so. Sure they know their onions in certain areas but they are normally cretins when it comes to gold. There is a bias against gold in the Wall St mind set and that is a fact so you really need to be selective about who you listen too. There are a small number of sane commentators that have got this since the beginning, Kass is not in their number and we typically get one or two Kass's each year telling us it is over for gold...{yawn}.



Talk about Yawn!! I will say it again. I don't much care for the man the way some here  sycophantically praise others that cannot make money. But at least he has a long term record of trading just these type of things. He creamed the housing bubble and wall street melt down then made two very good bullish calls March 09 and July 10. My point was that he is not a total Wall street mug nor an always buy Gold "commentator". 




explod said:


> And thought T/H that you would certainly know better.



No you didn't.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh another thing I see happening?

Is more and more punters jumping on the Gold wagon talking about their great gold miner pick ups in hindsight . People all of a sudden having a bucket full of PMs from the 08 low  although up until 6 months ago they never knew about gold. Blah Blah Blah. etc etc etc.

And of course the usual gold drops "because the shorts are killing the market" thats not fair etc, 

We will see a lot more of that next year.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh another thing I see happening?
> 
> Is more and more punters jumping on the Gold wagon talking about their great gold miner pick ups in hindsight . People all of a sudden having a bucket full of PMs from the 08 low  although up until 6 months ago they never knew about gold. Blah Blah Blah. etc etc etc.
> 
> And of course the usual gold drops "because the shorts are killing the market" thats not fair etc,
> 
> We will see a lot more of that next year.




So you obviously do not buy the idea that the US and China are trying to keep precious metals subdued in order, first the US to maintain strength in the US dollar and world currency status, and second, China trying also to hold the US$ together to protect the value of thier massive holdings of them.

I do buy it.

And there are lot of ASR'ers who were onto gold as a sound investment going well back prior to 08.  The interest in the gold thread since its inception is a testament to that.

Anyway I do agree that there will be great opportunities to play this market both long and short next year.  Increased focus and attention brings with it volatility.

Good to have your interest and input T/H


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



explod said:


> Looking at the bull and bear cases I find the bears qualify their statements with some economic rationale, the bears do not.
> 
> Huge money printing efforts in the US now are even propping up the Dow.   The dilution of the dollar alone is sending gold higher and there are no economic signals that say this will stop.
> 
> So we have money dilution and as well the inflation adjustments that say gold is still cheap at these levels.
> 
> Of course as the US (Wall Street) is very desperate to hold their ponzies together as long as they can they are pumping the media to keep things looking okay and this particularly relates to gold as a higher gold price paints a perception that things are not quite right.
> 
> And of course we know are not.
> 
> The new trading year will be interesting.  I expect gold to remain at these levels till then.



 Really can't agree with that first statement at all explod(I'm assuming you meant bulls in the second part). There is just as much waffle and misinformation that comes out of the bearish camp as the bullish one, as is always the case. IMO you just perceive the bearish camp to have a sounder economic rationale because that's where your own bias is.

Back on topic, my expectation is for prices to fluctuate in the coming year


----------



## explod

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*



professor_frink said:


> Really can't agree with that first statement at all explod(I'm assuming you meant bulls in the second part). There is just as much waffle and misinformation that comes out of the bearish camp as the bullish one, as is always the case. IMO you just perceive the bearish camp to have a sounder economic rationale because that's where your own bias is.
> 
> Back on topic, my expectation is for prices to fluctuate in the coming year




The overiding factor is that the Fed is attempting to stimulate by printing more dollars, it is a fact and it is happening.

This is diluting the value of this paper moey in the same way as for example new issues of shares do to a companies share value.   (Of course in the latter the money is used usually to add overall value).  Whilst that continues it will continue to drive the gold price higher.  The bear camp do not adress this issue and it is fundamentally the prime one.

And yes I meant "bulls" in the last part of the first satement.

And very much agree, there is a lot of waffle from both camps but in my view most of the older gold bulls on ASF keep it near to the facts.

It is why it is such a good thread and I get a lot of feedback from people thanking us on here for getting them into thinking about papar money value.

There is trading, investing and there is *preservation* and bullion investment is a part.

Gold is down a bit overnight but silver holding its own tells me that gold will hold into the new year at these levels.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!*

I must have had a little too much Christmas cheer last night, I don't know why I wandered in here this morning.

I'll leave you guys to your facts.

Merry Christmas all!


----------



## Ageo

Merry Xmas all


----------



## uahmad

wow nice bars!

Great xmas pressie.


----------



## nukz

*China calls on U.S. to sell gold reserves*
Baku - APA-ECONOMICS. The U.S. should cut its government spending and sell some gold reserves to balance its budget and fund its recovery, the People’s Daily overseas edition reported, citing Xia Bin, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, Bloomberg reported.

The U.S. has to resolve its “twin deficits” in the government budget and the current account, Xia was quoted as saying. Three ways that may help the U.S. achieve that target include reducing military expenses, selling part of its gold reserves and relaxing some export limits on technology, he said.
Read on - http://www.en.apa.az/news.php?id=135203

This is quite interesting, i wonder if China is trying to call America's bluff to find out if the U.S truely hold the amount of gold they state they do. 

One thing that would be interesting if the U.S did sell gold and China used its U.S treasuries to purchase the gold lol

I found this on another forum that sorta sums it up...

*4,000 tonnes x 32,150 ounces (assuming metric tonnes, troy ounces) x $1400 = $180,040,000,000

$180b from the Gold sales.

The US deficit for 2010 alone is expected to be $1.3t.*

Ps. TremblingHand  i posted the news article correct this time hehe


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh another thing I see happening?
> 
> Is more and more punters jumping on the Gold wagon talking about their great gold miner pick ups in hindsight . People all of a sudden having a bucket full of PMs from the 08 low  although up until 6 months ago they never knew about gold. Blah Blah Blah. etc etc etc.
> 
> And of course the usual gold drops "because the shorts are killing the market" thats not fair etc,
> 
> We will see a lot more of that next year.




LOL... yes, toward May. The clatter will be me hitting the exits and getting ready to trade the post apocalypse bounce . Revving up for a sugar high in gold this year. JMO.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm hoping for a 'crash' in gold. But unlike the crash in the equity markets (early 2011 as debt and insolvency cannot be ignored by Mr Market, who is currently hopelessly wrong and short sighted?) this will be a buying opportunity...........
> 
> There's also the issue of rising rates in the US - the Bernanke QE2 Call is getting blown out of the water - even though it's some sort of perverse trade, some people will be tempted to get 5% for 10YR T's, competition for gold short-term?
> 
> It will continue to BE, until it isn't?




You've raised an excellent and mind-boggling point here UF. Thankyou for your thoughts.

I have been thinking about the direction of US Bonds over the break.

I found this analysis. I think there is a lot of merit and what he says. 

DYOR


----------



## explod

Very interesting, in the great depression, of my Grandfarther's time, bondholders lost everything as governments and busineses went to the wall.

This looks like one of the the last big stunts to take all the dosh away, skin the sheeple through the bond market.

And if you need more gold or silver I would not be awaiting dips, they may come of course but you could be caught short in my view.  Silver has led the way to new highs for both gold and silver of late and to me it is close to a breakout on the upside.

We shall see.  Interesting headline on Kitco this morning, to the effect:-  "Gold price declines on increasing consumer sales"

He he, I purchased two new long sleeved shirts this morning for $10 each.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

explod said:


> Very interesting, in the great depression, of my Grandfarther's time, bondholders lost everything as governments and busineses went to the wall.
> 
> This looks like one of the the last big stunts to take all the dosh away, skin the sheeple through the bond market.
> 
> And if you need more gold or silver I would not be awaiting dips, they may come of course but you could be caught short in my view.  Silver has led the way to new highs for both gold and silver of late and to me it is close to a breakout on the upside.
> 
> We shall see.  Interesting headline on Kitco this morning, to the effect:-  "Gold price declines on increasing consumer sales"
> 
> He he, I purchased two new long sleeved shirts this morning for $10 each.




What goes up, comes down, ask Croesus.

gg


----------



## Mr Z

GumbyLearner said:


> You've raised an excellent and mind-boggling point here UF. Thankyou for your thoughts.
> 
> I have been thinking about the direction of US Bonds over the break.
> 
> I found this analysis. I think there is a lot of merit and what he says.
> 
> DYOR





Yeah look... he is off his nut! The Fed looks at asset prices as a key economic confidence builder. There is no way known they are actively going to foster an environment that would cause a stock market crash... and YES they can continue QE for quite some time before they will be forced to abandon this path. Sure this is inflationary an ultimately destructive but it will buy bounces in the US economy for short periods... IMO the numbers are pointing toward that now and guess what? It would deliver better numbers just about in time for Obama to gain a second term! Yeah I know the Fed is independent  hmmmm.

Many the look at the US stock market don't seem to be factoring in the idea that many US stocks are simply an inflation play. Much of the DOW has stocks that earn OS and are not in that bad a shape. I agree that there are better inflation defensive moves and that commodities and related stocks will be the most likely targeted area. I think that over time survivor bias will again pull these types of stocks to the fore in the indexes and that before this is over the major caps will again be energy and resource companies. Point is they are still stocks... so to talk of the stock market in terms of a homogeneous blob is a egregious error, just look at our market over the last 12 months... if it is a growth stock that Asia has an interest in it has been delivering solid returns... elsewhere pickings are slimmer.

Over time this will be inflationary, the USD will move lower BUT it will swing... at times the concern over return of capital will give wings to the bond market despite all the QE etc. If you have to park a few billion in a hurry and you want to be sure it is coming back (mostly LOL) then where else are you going to go but UST's for the moment? This will ebb and flow as Europe works through its debt issues, the US muni market gets more ragged, commodities have hot and cold runs oscillating between inflation and growth fears etc etc. I think the volatility will be the key word going forward.... anyway, don't bury the US just yet! A trillion dollars should buy a bounce in the least... I think it is coming and soonish, it could turn gold on its head for a year or so... we are about due for a big half way break in the gold market IMO FWIW. Not a prediction but we could see a 50% retrace if we get a sugar high this year.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well, credit is due to explod, I was personally disagreed with him over the last few years in regards to Gold, and I sure got it wrong. I didn't believe it would reach the highs it has so well done explod for sticking to your guns.....  

at this point if I had to make a call i would say a correction is more likely but that's a rough call from me.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> well, credit is due to explod, I was personally disagreed with him over the last few years in regards to Gold, and I sure got it wrong. I didn't believe it would reach the highs it has so well done explod for sticking to your guns.....
> 
> at this point if I had to make a call i would say a correction is more likely but that's a rough call from me.




Thank you Apocallypto.  

However the credit is due to those who I have learnt from over the years.  This learning has, in the last year or so,  started to reward my wife and I very well.  We lost nearly all of our money about seven years ago and it has been a long hard road back in many ways.  In fact the fact that we are still married to each other and happy is a miracle.  We took advice from others and lost it all in property, wonder why I fight with Robots, hey.

The formula is very simple.   Fundamentally you have to identify and invest in that which is in the most demand.   You then simply apply the methods of trend following.  But above all you listen to no one else, it must be worked out and understood by yourself.  It is your money that you are protecting.  And where you have doubts do nothing till you are confident in yourself that you should and can proceed.  However it is not easy to get yourself into that state.  We tend only to hear what *we* want to.  That is why some of us so called doom and gloomers are picked on, we say things that people do not want to hear or to accept.

Gold is in a strong uptrend and the fundamental reason for that is that currencies (in spite of all the unqualified news hype by the so called qualified economists) are being debased by the enourmous computer expansion of it to whoever needs it.

Making money is about putting in a lot of hard yards to learn what is real value, where it can be found and buying into it.

I have no association with, but acknowledge the following.  On the forums a few years back was the wisdom of Uncle Festivus, "The Privateer" newsletter and "Trend Following" by Michael Covel.

As silver was strong on the close of New York Saturday morning our time we will see a continued strong showing for gold in the short term.   It will surpass US$1700 this year and our dollar will rise to $1.30 against the greenback.    Silver is going to be in such short supply that it will rise substantaily, even against the Aussie dollar.

Just my opinion based on what I have learnt from the opinions of others.   And what is learned is great to pass on.  But once again, *they are just opinions*; you must act only on your own established facts.

I hope that everyone has a great trading year in 2011.


----------



## Mr Z

About 9 years ago I was buying silver and gold for long term investment... if we want to compare credentials... my averaged core position in gold is at $273 and silver it is at $4.34.

That guy is still talking tripe...


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> About 9 years ago I was buying silver and gold for long term investment... if we want to compare credentials... my averaged core position in gold is at $273 and silver it is at $4.34.
> 
> That guy is still talking tripe...




Sound like you had the perfect insight there Mr Z.  So very well done indeed.

Who is the guy talking tripe ?

as there are rather a lot of them.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Mr Z said:


> About 9 years ago I was buying silver and gold for long term investment... if we want to compare credentials... my averaged core position in gold is at $273 and silver it is at $4.34.
> 
> That guy is still talking tripe...




That's fantastic investing Mr Z. I wish I could have picked the PMs up at those prices myself.

With regard to the youtube video. I do find it interesting that the guy alluded to shorting US Bonds. Also, I noted that Jim Rogers recently said he was short US Bonds and Schiff has said the 10 and 30 year notes are a bad deal. I suppose it all depends 
on whether one considers the US Dollar/treasuries as 'safe havens' compared to say the euro or shares.

I watched an interesting program called Addicted to Money on Australia Network recently. There was one segment where a Chinese factory worker was interviewed and asked about the purchase of US Tbonds. Which he associated with a delayed form of printing money.... He works for roughly $7 a day and saves most of his income.

I also came across a great interview with an American Professor based in China by the name of Dr. Patrick Chovanec.

November 8, 2010

http://siciliandefence.wordpress.com/2010/11/08/chinas-dangerous-addiction/

*China’s economy is dangerously addicted to cheap money’ *

*What will the second round of Quantitative Easing in the US (QE 2) achieve? Is it a case of throwing good money after bad?*

This is an experiment based on a theory that (Fed Chairman) Ben Bernanke developed when he was a scholar of the Great Depression: his conclusion was that the Fed had not been aggressive enough in injecting liquidity into the economy to fight deflation. He vowed that if he became Fed Chairman he would take “extraordinary measures”. That’s in the realm of theory. The critical aspect is that if he overshoots or gets his timing wrong, he will – instead of fighting deflation – end up creating inflation. That’s one challenge.  

The other danger is of asset bubbles. The policy is intended to lower interest rates on Treasuries and direct investments elsewhere. If those are productive investments, they’ll achieve the goal. But the danger is that it creates asset bubbles. Alan Greenspan was criticised for doing precisely that after the dot-com bubble crash; by being too aggressive in reflating, he helped create the housing bubble. Instead of correcting the underlying problems in the economy, the money just went from one bubble to another.

When there is a credit meltdown in the economy, one of the immediate problems it faces is of liquidity; everybody hoards money. Injecting more money into the economy might address the liquidity crunch. But if there are other issues that need to be addressed – like excess debt or finding new sources of competitiveness – it won’t do that.

As we move into recovery, maybe some of the scepticism is that the problem isn’t necessarily of liquidity but deeper than that, and injecting more liquidity just creates inflation without addressing the underlying problems.

*So are there risks on both sides of QE 2: that it could underperform or overshoot?*

If the diagnosis is right, the theory is sound, and this is the right prescription. But it’s not clear that that’s all that’s wrong – or even primarily what’s wrong – with the patient. And even if it’s the right kind of medicine, there’s a danger of overdosing.

It’s not just about risks to the US economy. QE 2 creates complications around the world, which other countries aren’t too happy about. The most direct and obvious – and the most immediate – is that the bubbles it creates won’t be just in the US. Money taken out of Treasuries might go into emerging markets, and in that case, you have hot money fuelling growth or potentially feeding bubbles in other countries. And if the Fed decides at some point later to raise interest rates, you cut the legs out from under the flow of capital into that other country.

We’re getting to a point where the US dollar may – because of QE 2 – become the focus of a ‘carry trade’. It won’t necessarily help the US recovery, and it will fuel very fragile growth abroad. I say ‘fragile’ because it could be a bubble – and even if it isn’t, it’s vulnerable to monetary shock from the US. US monetary policy doesn’t just affect the US; it affects the rest of the world and that’s why developing countries, in particular, are concerned.

*India, China and other developing countries are at a stage where they are more concerned about inflation than deflation. China effectively had a huge QE over the past year: it had a big monetary expansion, and is trying to deal with the consequences of that and rein in inflation by raising its rates and tightening. That creates incentives for money to flow from the US to China.* It’s also true of India and any other country that’s raising interest rates.

There’s of course a very easy answer to this: allow your exchange rate to adjust, and allow your currency to appreciate. If you keep the exchange rate fixed, you’re going to import inflation from the US. *That’s the real bind: you either import inflation from the US or you appreciate your currency and make your export orders less competitive.* It’s not just China; a lot of developing countries don’t like being put in that bind by the Fed. That’s why they are upset.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One of the new catch words of 2011 will be chinflation. IMO 

DYOR


----------



## skcots

explod said:


> As silver was strong on the close of New York Saturday morning our time we will see a continued strong showing for gold in the short term.   It will surpass US$1700 this year and our dollar will rise to $1.30 against the greenback.




If the AUD buys $1.30 US then I hope the gold price is greater then $1700 USD per ounce.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Sound like you had the perfect insight there Mr Z.  So very well done indeed.
> 
> Who is the guy talking tripe ?
> 
> as there are rather a lot of them.




Nope not perfect... I could have done better had I known what I now know about the market. Skype me if you don't believe me... PM me for the handle, you cans ask anything thing you might want *BUT don't you dare insinuate I am talking tripe.*

As for the tripe talking the guy in the video is doing it... anyone who thinks that the Fed would actively undermine the US stock market to support UST's has rocks in their head.


----------



## Mr Z

GumbyLearner said:


> That's fantastic investing Mr Z. I wish I could have picked the PMs up at those prices myself.




Actually in AUD terms is was tough going for a while... in AUD terms I could have done better.


----------



## explod

skcots said:


> If the AUD buys $1.30 US then I hope the gold price is greater then $1700 USD per ounce.




I do not think the US$ will rise as high against most other currencies.  I the aussie is a bit on its own due to our own resources, both food and commodities.  We are one of the few nations that still does have some intrinsic value in GDP.   

The price of gold against the USD will gradually lose relevance to to us here IMHO.


----------



## Mr Z

GumbyLearner said:


> I suppose it all depends on whether one considers the US Dollar/treasuries as 'safe havens' compared to say the euro or shares.




In part the safety comes from the depth of the market, there are very few places you can park big money fast without distorting the market and be sure that you will largely get it back. In 2008 rates went negative for that very reason, they where willing to take a haircut over risking cash in the banking system. That is the main issue with other things like commodities, placing really big money fast in most things would create a problem. Nothing rivals the US bond market in that ability, so in a panic and short term money will still run and hide there if it is nervous about other areas... with all its flaws.


----------



## qe2infinity

IMHO, i think that it won't be long before the gold price sky rockets as investors finally realise that the only real currency and commodity in this era is GOLD. 

where is it heading? i think $1600 by the end of this year but who knows? $1800?
last night's 2pc correction should be seen as a buying opportunity for keen investors who don't want to miss the boat. 

disclaimer: please DYOR.


----------



## explod

qe2infinity said:


> IMHO, i think that it won't be long before the gold price sky rockets as investors finally realise that the only real currency and commodity in this era is GOLD.
> 
> where is it heading? i think $1600 by the end of this year but who knows? $1800?
> last night's 2pc correction should be seen as a buying opportunity for keen investors who don't want to miss the boat.
> 
> disclaimer: please DYOR.




Yes and has been its habit for awhile now, it continues to bounce from support in the USGold $1,380 area.  Watch the US$ index over the next day or so and if it fails to breach resistance at around .80 (where it is struggling) gold will continue its steady climb.

Big efforts to scare would be players in the Nadler blog, we have extremes on the bull side but the Kitco spokesman must be close to the prize bear.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/jan042011.html


----------



## nukz

Anybody notice that large spike down in gold in AUD, really strange because our currency has not moved at all and gold in USD has not moved...

There must be some news that has come out or something has happened but its very strange for gold to make a large move without any move in currency.

Edit: update the market dropped from approx $1385 > $1369AUD then sat there for approx 5 minutes and has not shot back up to 1385AUD again....

Could we be seeing some massive manipulation of the gold market in AUD? there is no effect on the gold market in USD or any moves in AUD currency right now.


----------



## Logique

MarketWatch:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/harry-schultz-last-investment-testament-2011-01-10?link=kiosk

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch - 10 Jan 2011
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — After 45 years, Harry Schultz has just published the last issue of his International Harry Schultz Letter. He’s superbearish but opportunistic. 

In his last issue, Schultz does not attempt a grand summing-up. But he does observe this: 
“Roughly speaking, the mess we are in is the worst since 17th century financial collapse. Comparisons with the 1930’s are ludicrous. We’ve gone far beyond that. And, alas, the courage & political will to recognize the mess & act wisely to reverse gears, is absent in U.S. leadership, where the problems were hatched & where the rot is by far the deepest.” 
..............
“Stockman replied (to my huge surprise, coming from a former top government official) ‘Get some gold, beans, water, anything that Bernanke can’t destroy. Ron Paul is right. We’re entering a global monetary conflagration. If a sell-off of U.S. bonds starts, it will be an Armageddon.’” 
About gold, Schultz retains his long-term bullishness. He quotes the respected Seeking Alpha service: 
“For gold to match the growth in US M1, M2, public debt & budget deficit, gold will have to reach $1,800, $2,400, $7,800 & $13,200, respectively. While I can’t imagine gold going to $13k, these numbers tell me that calling gold a bubble is a bit premature. In my view, money supply, public debt & the budget deficit are in a bubble, not gold, not yet.” 
Schultz’s comment: “Wake me up at $2,400 gold.” 
...............
“It’s a stock market index for Europe, Australasia and the Far East. Chart shows massive bullish base. If it breaks upside, these areas are where we should buy some new investments. Some modest pre-emptive buying in stocks there, having good chart patterns, is justified.” 

Schultz’s final investment allocation recommendation: 
..............
- 50% gold stocks & bullion: 15% blue chips, 5% junior, 5% bullion via futures, 25-35% in physical bullion.


----------



## Trembling Hand

nukz said:


> There must be some news that has come out or something has happened but its very strange for gold to make a large move without any move in currency.
> 
> Could we be seeing some massive manipulation of the gold market in AUD? there is no effect on the gold market in USD or any moves in AUD currency right now.




"*massive *manipulation of the gold market in AUD" Hmmmmm?  

That would be something. Considering that there is no actual market to manipulate. I guess your looking a a quote from a CFD provider? (probably CMC?)

There is no spot/futures AUD gold market. They just make a 3 way synthetic price out of a CFD linked to the Comex GC contract and then converted to AUD via the spot AUDUSD price.

Most likely a bad tick/data/contract roll somewhere in the bowels of your dodgy so called "broker" rather than those evil wall streeters manipulating the poor 50 cent AU retail traders.


----------



## nukz

Trembling Hand said:


> "*massive *manipulation of the gold market in AUD" Hmmmmm?
> 
> That would be something. Considering that there is no actual market to manipulate. I guess your looking a a quote from a CFD provider? (probably CMC?)
> 
> There is no spot/futures AUD gold market. They just make a 3 way synthetic price out of a CFD linked to the Comex GC contract and then converted to AUD via the spot AUDUSD price.
> 
> Most likely a bad tick/data/contract roll somewhere in the bowels of your dodgy so called "broker" rather than those evil wall streeters manipulating the poor 50 cent AU retail traders.




Thanks for the reply Trembling,

Was really quite strange because there was almost no move in AUD/or gold in USD at the time so it was strange to have it spike down(not sure if you saw the same thing i did) or this was central to only CMC customers... which may explain something.

If it was indeed a error with CMC what would have happened if i had a margin call? that would have been interesting


----------



## Trembling Hand

nukz said:


> If it was indeed a error with CMC what would have happened if i had a margin call? that would have been interesting




You would have to ring up and argue with them that their data was wrong. 

In the end you have already agreed to accept the price they give to you, although they are the ones making it, so its up to them whether or not they would scratch any problems from such a move.

Surely though a 1% move while you are holding outside cash shouldn't cause to much of a problem?


----------



## nukz

Trembling Hand said:


> You would have to ring up and argue with them that their data was wrong.
> 
> In the end you have already agreed to accept the price they give to you, although they are the ones making it, so its up to them whether or not they would scratch any problems from such a move.
> 
> Surely though a 1% move while you are holding outside cash shouldn't cause to much of a problem?




Yea no problems  

What provider do you use? by the looks of your replys CMC may have had these issues before?


----------



## Trembling Hand

nukz said:


> Yea no problems
> 
> What provider do you use? by the looks of your replys CMC may have had these issues before?




I don't/wouldn't use a CFD providers for data nor to hold a trade. I would only ever use the exchange data. In golds case COMEX.

EDIT: Which by the way so should everyone. Especially if you are long and holding for some time. 7% interest compounded daily plus a MASSIVE spread for CFD gold. You need to look elsewhere.


----------



## nukz

Hey Trembling, 

I had a look at the gold AUD cfd this morning and it had price spikes again, quite interesting. It appears as though CMC's data is quite crap 

This is really off topic but do you know any providers that provide CFD's for yuan? it could be vs. USD/AUD i'm not really fussed. If they are simply synthetic products then surely a cfd can be created for yuan vs.aud?


----------



## Trembling Hand

nukz said:


> This is really off topic but do you know any providers that provide CFD's for yuan? it could be vs. USD/AUD i'm not really fussed. If they are simply synthetic products then surely a cfd can be created for yuan vs.aud?




yeah the USD/AUD. Since its pegged to the USD :


----------



## nukz

Trembling Hand said:


> yeah the USD/AUD. Since its pegged to the USD :




Yea that's why playing it would be a speculative bet that China may lower the peg or drop it. Thats why i would be looking at a USD/RMB


----------



## tothemax6

nukz said:


> Hey Trembling,
> 
> I had a look at the gold AUD cfd this morning and it had price spikes again, quite interesting. It appears as though CMC's data is quite crap
> 
> This is really off topic but do you know any providers that provide CFD's for yuan? it could be vs. USD/AUD i'm not really fussed. If they are simply synthetic products then surely a cfd can be created for yuan vs.aud?



Regarding trading gold (or silver) and yuan, I use OANDA (they are a major forex broker). They have minuscule spreads. 
Also, I have been onto the whole "yuan will rise" thing for a while, but for all the talk that it will rise it has done very little.


----------



## nukz

tothemax6 said:


> Regarding trading gold (or silver) and yuan, I use OANDA (they are a major forex broker). They have minuscule spreads.
> Also, I have been onto the whole "yuan will rise" thing for a while, but for all the talk that it will rise it has done very little.




Thanks for the info Tothemax & Trembling 

I think the whole yuan play is more a political play rather than a financial play. But then again the Chinese hate to be bossed around by the U.S so who knows how things will play out.


----------



## Trembling Hand

nukz said:


> I think the whole yuan play is more a political play rather than a financial play. But then again the Chinese hate to be bossed around by the U.S so who knows how things will play out.




Here you go,

http://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/fund-details-currency.asp?etfid=64


----------



## GumbyLearner

Trembling Hand said:


> Here you go,
> 
> http://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/fund-details-currency.asp?etfid=64




And your point is????

A website?

How about this TH? They all must be lying right?

Let's start with the fastest growing economy in Europe

*Polish Inflation Accelerates to 11-Month High, May Trigger Rate Increase*

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-11-month-high-may-trigger-rate-increase.html

*Serbian Inflation Hits 22-Month High of 10.3% on Food, Dinar*

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...hits-22-month-high-of-10-3-on-food-dinar.html

*India's inflation rate accelerates to 8.4 percent*

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/india-s-inflation-rate-accelerates-to-8-4-percent.html

*China Should Tighten ‘Aggressively’ to Cap Inflation, HSBC Says*

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-aggressively-to-cap-inflation-hsbc-says.html

*UPDATE 1-Key Euribor rate jumps after ECB inflation warning
*
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE70D11S20110114

*Ethiopia inflation rises to 14.5 pct in December*

http://af.reuters.com/article/ethiopiaNews/idAFLDE70D09T20110114

*The impact of rising food prices in Brazil*

Inflation in Brazil remains on the rise with the projection raised to more than 5.3% for this year.

High inflation is one of the reasons preventing the authorities from lowering interest rates, one of the greatest constraints to the country's growth.

*German Inflation Expectations at Nine-Month High as CPI Surges*

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...tations-at-nine-month-high-as-cpi-surges.html

*U.K. Factory-Gate Inflation Rises Unexpectedly *

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703959104576081300093994720.html

*China ‘may hike rates again’ to combat rising inflation*

http://citywire.co.uk/money/china-may-hike-rates-again-to-combat-rising-inflation/a463073

What's next Trembling Hand?

DISC: I HOLD Au and will continue until the news changes. 

As always though DYOR. Cha-ching


----------



## GumbyLearner

Trembling Hand said:


> "*massive *manipulation of the gold market in AUD" Hmmmmm?




This issue is irrelevant. What is relevant is how much cash is circulating and how many goods that cash is chasing. 

Go the cash!!!! NOT!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

GumbyLearner said:


> And your point is????
> 
> A website?
> 
> How about this TH? They all must be lying right?
> 
> ...................
> 
> What's next Trembling Hand?
> 
> You come across as such an arrogant self-conceited wind bag maybe you need to get off the net and start your own self-deluded cult.




 I'm answering a question that was directed at me from Nutz about how you trade the Yuan. 

I may come across as a arrogant self-conceited wind bag because you can never fault my points of veiw nor facts. That leaves idiots like yourself nothing to do when Gold drops 2% and under performs what you hate other than the drunken personal attacking bullsh!t you have put in your last two post.

Fool.


----------



## TabJockey

Cmon guys, more facts and less poo throwing please.

And how about some original individual analysis backed up by some quoted stats? Just linking websites doesn't really do it for me.


----------



## tothemax6

GumbyLearner, TemblingHand,

How 'bout you both go use a punch bag for half an hour, and then remember that people on the internet are not real. This thread is about gold.

Cheers!


----------



## electronicmaster

*Gold Analysis (01.15.2011) *



endlessmountain | January 15, 2011 | 38 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## tothemax6

Where is it heading?

Down.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Last nights move in bonds was big news.
> 
> The market basically told Bernanke to sod off?
> 
> Higher rates generally do not bode well for gold longs.




As noted December 8th, looked like the continued bout of higher rates did not bode well for gold longs.

Here to share a little research thought you might enjoy, here is the 20 day correlation of ASX:GOLD and ASX:STW close prices. I wanted to see what it looked like before the flash crash, so I've annotated it like that. But the chart goes from 21st Jan 2010 - Current.


----------



## Logique

A little bearish in tone, but Chris Vermeulen on 20 Jan is worth reading on this. Some interesting charts too. 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/vermeulen/jan202011.html
Panic Selling Hit SP500 Today, Silver and Gold Are Next!

...All of the recent gains vanished in one session. Strong selling volume sessions like this are typically a warning sign that distribution selling is starting to enter the market.

Distribution selling is when the big money players start unloading large positions in anticipation of a market top. They do try to hide it by selling into good news or earnings when the average investors are buying into all the hype of better than expected earnings on the news... 

...I feel the precious metals sector will be starting something like this in the near futures, and possibly it has already started as seen in the rising volume on the down days...

...Silver Daily Chart – The Next Wave of Selling?

I look at silver and gold as one…  so what I show here is the exact same for gold. 

As you can see silver is trading under 3 of its key moving averages and todays bounce was sold into after testing the 14 and 20 period moving averages. 

Take a looking at the bottom of the chart and you can see distribution selling volume as the spikes are all down days. If silver breaks below the $28 level then we could easily and quickly see the $26 and maybe even the $24 level.


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> A little bearish in tone, but Chris Vermeulen on 20 Jan is worth reading on this. Some interesting charts too.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/vermeulen/jan202011.html
> Panic Selling Hit SP500 Today, Silver and Gold Are Next!
> 
> ...All of the recent gains vanished in one session. Strong selling volume sessions like this are typically a warning sign that distribution selling is starting to enter the market.
> 
> Distribution selling is when the big money players start unloading large positions in anticipation of a market top. They do try to hide it by selling into good news or earnings when the average investors are buying into all the hype of better than expected earnings on the news...
> 
> ...I feel the precious metals sector will be starting something like this in the near futures, and possibly it has already started as seen in the rising volume on the down days...
> 
> ...Silver Daily Chart – The Next Wave of Selling?
> 
> I look at silver and gold as one…  so what I show here is the exact same for gold.
> 
> As you can see silver is trading under 3 of its key moving averages and todays bounce was sold into after testing the 14 and 20 period moving averages.
> 
> Take a looking at the bottom of the chart and you can see distribution selling volume as the spikes are all down days. If silver breaks below the $28 level then we could easily and quickly see the $26 and maybe even the $24 level.




Since 2001 these same scenarios have appeared about every 18 months on average.  

Gold is different because it is a currency in its own right and has been for 5 thousand years.  This statement has been repeated many times since the advent of this thread and I wonder sometime when will the message get through.

Gold has intrinsic value and it cannot be printed into oblivion.  Paper money is no more than a promise of a given amount which loses value with inflation, which is again showing signs of looming but in particular with Q/E money printing which is now rampant.

On the action of the techincal charts computer triggers will be hit and it will sell down violently at times and this appears to be one of those times now.

Watch this space for a rise in gold and silver again very soon IMHO


----------



## tothemax6

explod said:


> Gold is different because it is a currency in its own right and has been for 5 thousand years.  This statement has been repeated many times since the advent of this thread and I wonder sometime when will the message get through.
> 
> Gold has intrinsic value and it cannot be printed into oblivion.  Paper money is no more than a promise of a given amount which loses value with inflation, which is again showing signs of looming but in particular with Q/E money printing which is now rampant.



Yes we know all this. But people can go overboard, right? The effect is not infinite. The issue is "at this stage in the money printing, is the gold worth $1400"? People who piled into gold in 1980 expecting hyperinflation got smashed, and would have had to have waited decades to get a positive return. The information shows that in this situation the US _is_ going to suffer high inflation, but market timing is important.


----------



## explod

tothemax6 said:


> Yes we know all this. But people can go overboard, right? The effect is not infinite. The issue is "at this stage in the money printing, is the gold worth $1400"? People who piled into gold in 1980 expecting hyperinflation got smashed, and would have had to have waited decades to get a positive return. The information shows that in this situation the US _is_ going to suffer high inflation, but market timing is important.




You can only go with the overall long term trend in a commodity such as gold.  A stop loss needs to be set well below normal levels based upon its behaviour.  We are not talking of trading here either, like land banking it is about preserving overall equity in a portfolio.

I hold physical for those reasons.

And from 1980 there were plenty of opportunities to recognise that a down trend was in place and to get out with a very good overall profit if you picked it up around 1975


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> And from 1980 there were plenty of opportunities to recognise that a down trend was in place and to get out with a very good overall profit if you picked it up around 1975



What happened to make gold crash back then?

Is this time different and it just keeps going up for ever?


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> What happened to make gold crash back then?
> 
> Is this time different and it just keeps going up for ever?




Mega hot US interest rates in the early 1980's


----------



## Sean K

GumbyLearner said:


> Mega hot US interest rates in the early 1980's



Sorry GL, is there an association with POG on that? Can you post comparative charts?


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> Sorry GL, is there an association with POG on that? Can you post comparative charts?




Well here's gold v us dollar until 2008 not that the US FED funds rates has moved yet and gold certainly should be north of that red line. I suppose if the chinese central bank moves thier lending rate by 300 to 400 basis points over the next 12 months that may effect the value of gold. Either that or they look like getting monstered by inflation anyway.

This is not investment advice 

I'm still learning

GL

DYOR


----------



## Sean K

GumbyLearner said:


> Well here's gold v us dollar until 2008 not that the US FED funds rates has moved yet and gold certainly should be north of that red line. I suppose if the chinese central bank moves their lending rate by 300 to 400 basis points over the next 12 months that may effect the value of gold. Either that or they look like getting monstered by inflation anyway.
> 
> This is not investment advice
> 
> I'm still learning
> 
> GL
> 
> DYOR



So, if USD eventually goes back up, POG will decline?

In that case, the gold bulls are betting on the US continuing their policy of printing money and they're not going to get out of this situation. It's just down hill forever until gold becomes a real currency again where you can trade a gold coin for some mixed lollies...

So, if the US/world sorts itself out, and we keep using 'paper' as currency, gold might go down?


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> So, if USD eventually goes back up, POG will decline?




According to all the empirical data I have seen it should. Do note though the effect of the last week EURO/US has had on POG. 

Jim Rogers recently said he was holding US dollars for now, but has said 5 - 10 years from now he will not. 

Can't say for sure mate. Just know all the stuff I buy at the local mart is costing more every month and hasn't stopped going up for at least the last 6 years.

Agflation is upon all of us now 

DYOR


----------



## electronicmaster

So we could be witnessing the real value of paper Gold and Silver here.

worthless cash

Time will tell


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> So, if USD eventually goes back up, POG will decline?
> 
> In that case, the gold bulls are betting on the US continuing their policy of printing money and they're not going to get out of this situation. It's just down hill forever until gold becomes a real currency again where you can trade a gold coin for some mixed lollies...
> 
> So, if the US/world sorts itself out, and we keep using 'paper' as currency, gold might go down?




Well, how many capital inflows do you think China will attract over the next year? How much of that will be QE steroids vs. real investments?
And if China have an attractive interest rate maybe the renimbi/yuan/kwai may be the currency to hold? 

DISC: I still hold physical Au


----------



## GumbyLearner

electronicmaster said:


> So we could be witnessing the real value of paper Gold and Silver here.
> 
> worthless cash
> 
> Time will tell




You have raised an interesting and thought provoking point emaster. But really you should preface your argument as to who the 'we' actually are. 

I think a lot of people in the banking fraternity, traders, media cannot be included in the 'we' you have mentioned earlier. 

In my opinion, they cannot be included in the 'we' from a pure statistical sampling perspective because they live in what I would say is analogous to a cocoon. Meaning that almost everything that goes on around them that adversely effects the average punter involves them being either blind and/or deaf and/or slumbering to such occurrences. That's not to say there are not good banks, good traders/analysts or businesspeople. But a lot of bureaucrats and their friends in finance often lose touch. In that cocoon they don't have to pay their way directly at the cash register (generally speaking they probably hire others to do that for them) and cannot fully appreciate the concerns of the average person who has to pay their bills week-in-week out. Throughout history people in such positions of prominence have been unable to realize that a crisis could unfold and such crises have been unleashed and without due warning from their perspective. Depressions, Recessions, Australia 1950's Wool Boom/Bust, IMF/Asian Financial Crisis etc... Just ask the Bank of England and what they had to say to Her Majesty when Bank of Scotland/Northern Rock/Lloyds etc.. collapsed. 

This one will not finish any different. But I certainly think 2011 will be a year of inflationary pressures rather than deflationary ones as Bernanke may disagree.

Anyway, I'm off to "bash a banker" in my cocoon.


----------



## tothemax6

kennas said:


> What happened to make gold crash back then?
> 
> Is this time different and it just keeps going up for ever?



Leading up to 1980 there was high inflation. As a result people were piling into gold. Then Paul Volcker came along and said "F~!K YOU, inflation!!", and proceeded to smash it with epic interest rates. Holding gold when you can get 20% on cash and inflation is going to be terminated, is not a popular decision. Hence the gold price went down like a lead balloon.

However, there are several reasons why this situation is currently unlikely to unfold. Marc Faber's speech to the Mises Institute (multipart on youtube), details this quite well. The effects of high interest rates on the US would be ugly. It would cause immediate government default for one, and it would strangle credit growth in an economy that runs on credit expansion.


----------



## GumbyLearner

tothemax6 said:


> Leading up to 1980 there was high inflation.




There was also an Oil crisis in Iran that involved American hostages. A lot of that ****e had to do with the cold war. Today has nothing to do with hostages or Iran. THE REAL HOSTAGE IS YOU, IF YOU PAY WEEKLY/FORTNIGHTLY TAXES. Paying for other peoples ****-ups. If you're not willing to do so, then too bad! TAKE ONE FOR THE TEAM! 

Here's a parody vid based on the Classic & brilliant Richard Pryor/John Candy movie Brewster's Millions


----------



## Whiskers

GumbyLearner said:


> But I certainly think 2011 will be a year of inflationary pressures rather than deflationary ones as Bernanke may disagree.




Maybe slightly inflationary in the US as they lag recovery from the GFC, but I think you have to remember the rest of the world... where there has still been higher inflation and stronger GDP growth, which apart from the currency conversion of the weak USD, has kept the USD POG relatively strong.

I think World inflation and GDP will start to reflect slow consumption by the US and Europe and fall a bit this year taking gold with it and then a bit more as some countries like Aus, that have been favoured for better returns, start to also suffer from lower world consumption which cannot all be made up by Chindia internally, and some cash flows back to the strengthening USD.

It's the World picture that determines the inflationary flight to gold (OR NOT) more so than just the US.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Whiskers said:


> Maybe slightly inflationary in the US as they lag recovery from the GFC, but I think you have to remember the rest of the world... where there has still been higher inflation and stronger GDP growth, which apart from the currency conversion of the weak USD, has kept the USD POG relatively strong.
> 
> I think World inflation and GDP will start to reflect slow consumption by the US




Oh you think the world will eat less? 

Nah, I'm of the opinion they will definitely eat more.

Just my opinion

DYOR

GL


----------



## Whiskers

GumbyLearner said:


> Oh you think the world will eat less?
> 
> Nah, I'm of the opinion they will definitely eat more.
> 
> Just my opinion
> 
> DYOR
> 
> GL




Yeah, I suppose they will continue to eat well and lead in the world obesity stakes as they continue to sink into anxiety and depression over the state of their economy as they ponder all the luxury goods and big houses they can't afford anymore.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, I suppose they will continue to eat well and lead in the world obesity stakes as they continue to sink into anxiety and depression over the state of their economy as they ponder all the luxury goods and big houses they can't afford anymore.




INFLATION 100%


----------



## GumbyLearner




----------



## Uncle Festivus

This is what I've been waiting for comrades - a classic 'risky' assets melt up before the day of reckoning. Dow up 109 because of?????

There are several factors aligning - 



loose money inflation chasing the yield ie equities at the moment;
loose money inflation chasing commodities, especially the softs ie food
climate events affecting food supply
gold has had a good run
goods inflation is rising, again, though typically has not been indicated correctly in official data for the obvious reasons
ever present geo-political hot spots - which one is going to pop first?
If you found a rock & a hard place you would see Europe, the UK, China & the US huddled in the middle because they have to now confront both the payback of the stimulis debts and _try_ to contain the inflation it is causing - glaring exhibit #1 - China. 

Only problem is that they can't raise rates because they can barely pay for the principle let alone interest now! It's all in the *Alfred* data, but apparently Mr Market is back in negative news ignorance mode again - irrational exuberance? 

And as every day passes it becomes one day closer to the day when the US, and the others in debt, must take drastic action to start paying it debts (& unfunded future liabilities, in the 10's of Trillions). But, they cannot as they are insolvent ie even if they had 100% personal & company tax they still could not pay back their debts! 

I hope the POG falls substantially so I can make the 'final' load up while everybody is looking at the fireworks of the equity markets implode........

It's starting to get very interesting.......

PS does anybody know where I can buy bulk food?


----------



## Logique

Yeah I saw that 109 point rise in the Dow and thought..what?
This month the trend has changed for gold and silver, that's all I know. Uncle F., it sounds like you're on board the hypothesis of a reverse unwinding.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Logique said:


> Yeah I saw that 109 point rise in the Dow and thought..what?
> This month the trend has changed for gold and silver, that's all I know. Uncle F., it sounds like you're on board the hypothesis of a reverse unwinding.




Yeah, gold is unloved by the trend/momentum/latest fad brigade. I think that everybody really knows what's going on but never say it out loud for fear of stampede for the (non gold) exits. There is just so much evidence out there saying that it's a (global financial system) melt up - the last to the party will get burned!


----------



## nukz

Support for gold was at 1323, not sure if it even hit 1322 but it came under quite heavy trading last night. 

 * Gold support at $1,323 an ounce, resistance at $1,351 an
ounce and 14-day RSI at 41.9.

 * Platinum support at $1,794 an ounce, resistance at $1,836
and 14-day RSI at 63.8.

 * Silver support at $26.35 an ounce, resistance at $27.80
and 14-day RSI at 44.7.


Also abit off topic but zerohedge was reporting that Russia has made a purchase of 100/150 tonnes of gold i forgot the exact number. I still think Russia is like the sleeping giant in the world at the moment all the attentions on China.


----------



## electronicmaster

*CFTC Delays 60-Day Notification To Assist Manipulators*

http://www.roadtoroota.com

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/504.cfm




> *Bix Weir
> Printer-Friendly Format
> 
> OPEN LETTER TO THE CFTC
> 
> January 25, 2011
> 
> Commodities Futures Trading Commission
> 
> 3 Lafayette Center
> 
> 1155 21st St. NW Washington, DC 50581
> 
> Re: CFTC Delays 60-Day Notification To Assist Manipulators
> 
> Commissioners:
> 
> On January 13, 2011 the CFTC held a hearing on the Implementation of Position Limits for the Dodd-Frank Act that was mandated by the US Congress to be implemented on January 17, 2011. This meeting was a continuation of the same meeting held in December on the same topic. As of today, January 25, 2011, Position Limits have NOT been implemented and thus the CFTC is currently in violation of the laws of the United States Congress. The reasoning behind the current delay? "There must be a 60 day notice period"...
> 
> SO WHERE IS IT? WHERE IS THE 60 DAY NOTIFICATION ANNOUNCEMENT? WHY WON'T YOU START THE CLOCK TICKING EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE IN VIOLATION OF THE LAW?*




you can read the rest via the URL provided )


----------



## explod

Interesting move up in gold and silver in the last hour.

However the following article on the recent *manfactured correction* sums up some good points in my view:-

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2011/MPLID_012811_pg003Emb.pdf


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Interesting move up in gold and silver in the last hour.
> 
> However the following article on the recent *manfactured correction* sums up some good points in my view:-




Having trouble deciding which chart is more interesting, decided to post them all.

Dow:Gold looking like it's at the top of a range



Gold bounced last night at technical support



Goldbugs were waiting bigtime for the 200MA



Gold juniors, NYSE and TSE (%performance)



(will post the ASX:XGD reaction to last night's action this arvo after the ASX close I guess)


----------



## Logique

Nice charting Sinner, thanks.

The post from InTheMoneyStocks on the 'Commodity Stocks Get Rocked' thread is interesting, explaining the negative effects on increasing interest rates in Asia. Thread at: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21690


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> Nice charting Sinner, thanks.
> 
> The post from InTheMoneyStocks on the 'Commodity Stocks Get Rocked' thread is interesting, explaining the negative effects on increasing interest rates in Asia. Thread at: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21690




Thanks Sinner and Logique for the interesting insights therein.

On the commodity pressure scenario I see gold and silver as more and more in the currency sector.  I think that the general finance community believe that inflation will pop the p/m's.   It is my take that debt has become an impossible problem, not just in the US but many western countries.  A rise in interest rates in these nations will pop the cork and debt defaults will become the overiding factor.  

Gold will then become the safe haven and not the US dollar as is now still the case in many minds.

Very interesting times


----------



## professor_frink

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/01/26/investing-insights-from-top-newsletter-writers/



> *Investing Insights from Top Newsletter Writers!*
> 
> 
> We turn now to *Augustus Yellowgleam* of the _*Super Gold Boom Quarterly Letter*_...
> *TRB*:  Hi Augustus, what's your favorite investment here for people worried about deflation?
> *Yellowgleam*: We would be buying gold here to protect against deflation.
> *TRB*:  Ah.  And for those concerned with the dollar plummeting and a nasty bout of inflation, your recommendation?
> *Yellowgleam*:  That's easy, we would tell investors to up their allocations toward gold here.
> *TRB*:  And if the troubles in Europe ameliorate and the US deficit is cut in half, where would you be positioned?
> *Yellowgleam*:  We'd be positioned in gold in that scenario.
> *TRB*: At 1300?
> *Yellowgleam*: Yes.
> *TRB*:  How about at 900 or 2900?
> *Yellowgleam*: Yes, we'd be buyers.
> *TRB*:   I see, and in a hypothetical environment of disinflation, or some sort  of alternate reality that involved a perfect Utopian harmony between  supply of money and cost of goods?
> *Yellowgleam*:  Yeah, so in that scenario, we'd be recommending gold.
> *TRB*: Gotcha.  And if gold broke into your house and killed your family?
> *Yellowgleam*:   Gold is a hedge against both breaking and entering and it also works  well in a homicidal environment, so yes, we'd be buying gold under those  circumstances absolutely - silver too.
> *TRB*:  OK, thanks Augustus.
> *Yellowgleam*:  Gold.
> *TRB*:  What?
> *Yellowgleam*:  I meant _Thanks_.


----------



## Logique

explod said:


> ... the following article on the recent *manfactured correction* sums up some good points in my view:- http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2011/MPLID_012811_pg003Emb.pdf



Explod, John Embry seems to know his stuff. His 'drivel' points 1.) to 5.) on page one are instructive. Doubt that many would disagree with his overall LT secular trend comments, and '..QE to infinity..'.  

But he is looking out to a longer horizon. 

'..2.) The misguided suggestion that gold supply is going to rise because of large increases in mine production..'  - We can guess Embrey's reasons, but would have liked to see him elaborate on that point.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Interesting move up in gold and silver in the last hour.
> 
> However the following article on the recent *manfactured correction* sums up some good points in my view




I couldn't see any evidence that it was 'manufactured', rather just an ordinary bout of profit taking after a good run?

".... the anti-gold cartel unleashed a vicious paper driven attack......"

While I agree with the points raised, I get a bit tired of the usual 'bug' talk about 'us' & 'them'. The truth is, the gold market, when compared to the entire global liquidity market, is like a mozzi bite in the big scheme of things - hardly going to be a concern for the plunge protection team or the Presidents working party or the work experience kids running the Feds POMO ops.

We only have to look at global equity markets to see a genuine 'manufactured' market, as Sinner points out, when compared to gold the Dow etc is primed for a correction, or gold could take off again? But, it looks to me like a bearish rounding top for gold so we can just chill out and wait for the market to bottom out around either $1200 or in the bearish of cases, $900. Baring some outbreak of rationality and non ignorance of economic reality of course......



sinner said:


> Having trouble deciding which chart is more interesting, decided to post them all.
> 
> Gold bounced last night at technical support
> View attachment 41049




My 2c......


----------



## explod

Could that also be a reverse candle at the end of your weekly there UF, similar to the one at the start of your curve.

Note a few more tail downs stand out if you look back on the chart.  We shall see.  

Anyway, back into some OGC today.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Uncle Festivus said:


> ".... the anti-gold cartel unleashed a vicious paper driven attack......"




These guys seem to confirm that - Go to the 11th minute mark of the vid to hear an analysts opinion.
Gee Max looked chubbier when he was a younger broker on Wall St in 1987.

Trading Fraud Phantom Money OH WELL  Don't be scared everyone, get some physical PM's it has to finish somewhere. Sympathy goes out to "ordinary" honest Irish taxpayer(non-bond holder) citizens.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> (will post the ASX:XGD reaction to last night's action this arvo after the ASX close I guess)




As promised

XGD in black HUI in red, you can see that the XGD printed a reversal pin and higher low one day prior to HUI so the strong buying shown today was not just a reaction to last nights action in HUI but also the markets own technicals.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*China Investment Head Gao Says Quantitative Easing Devaluing Paper Money

*

By Simon Kennedy 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ing-is-devaluing-money-stoking-inflation.html

China Investment Corp. Vice Chairman Gao Xiqing said that central banks’ quantitative easing policies are hurting the value of money just one day after the Federal Reserve maintained plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries.

“You know money is gradually becoming not worth the paper it’s printed on,” Gao said at an event sponsored by HSBC Holdings Plc at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland today. Recent gains in commodity and food prices reflect the “long-term view” of investors that prices will accelerate, he said.

The Fed and the European Central Bank have kept their benchmark interest rates at record lows to spur their economic recoveries, triggering concern in emerging markets that the resulting flood of capital will undermine currencies such as the dollar and spark inflation.

“We’ve started collecting Zimbabwe notes,” Gao said, referring to an economy whose currency was scrapped in 2009 after inflation reached 500 billion percent. He noted investors are also discussing whether central banks will pursue more rounds of quantitative easing.

The Fed yesterday reiterated its intention to keep its benchmark “exceptionally low.”

Gao, whose sovereign wealth fund manages about $300 billion, signaled that while industrial nations are now more welcoming of China’s money following the financial crisis, their past criticisms may hurt their ability to attract it.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Cool finally someone with some throw in China has admitted it.


----------



## Whiskers

Gold taking a bit of a beating the last hour again (daily chart), testing support.

It's gonna break soon. EUR/USD starting to weaken also, so is the last gasp surge in the USD imminent ?


----------



## GumbyLearner

Whiskers said:


> Gold taking a bit of a beating the last hour again (daily chart), testing support.
> 
> It's gonna break soon. EUR/USD starting to weaken also, so is the last gasp surge in the USD imminent ?




A healthy correction to US $1240 is the target IMO. This is not financial advice. I make my own money without government guarantees or printing presses. 

DYOR


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah, 1240 seems a reasonable start. But I reckon we've got a bit bigger correction on our hands than that.

 If I'm right, the USD will rally a bit starting the rebalanceing currency dance and probably start a bit of a panic sell-off in USD terms, but the AUD POG graph curve should kick up a bit and maybe overlap the USD for a bit before this correction is over... maybe close to 1,000 USD.


----------



## Whiskers

Checking the US economic calender, the release of GDP figures there tomorrow night might just be the cue to get it moving.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

You've got to give them credit - everything that has been threatening to take down the 'recovery' ie food & commodity inflation, long term rates eg treasuries, has just been comprehensively smacked down, all the while keeping the one metric that matters, equity indexes, bubbling along nicely. And I use the word bubble deliberately as it's only a matter of time before all those US debt buyers at first slowly, then at a quicker pace, start to 're-balance' their treasury holdings to reflect their true worth ie big fat zilch!

$1310 and still shaky?




PS It would be ironic indeed if the US Fed didn't make it to it's 100 year anniversary???


----------



## sinner

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, 1240 seems a reasonable start. But I reckon we've got a bit bigger correction on our hands than that.
> 
> If I'm right, the USD will rally a bit starting the rebalanceing currency dance and probably start a bit of a panic sell-off in USD terms, but the AUD POG graph curve should kick up a bit and maybe overlap the USD for a bit before this correction is over... maybe close to 1,000 USD.




Dude, please revisit your previous gold calls for us. You often seem to post the same call without ever revisiting your thoughts.

My own opinion, in response to Uncles chart, we are still shorter term support zoneish as long as trading remains above 1310.

Other parameters marked. Trendlines are 45 degree P&F trendlines, different from a normal price chart trendline. If we make it to the trendline in this current downswing I would expect chop at 1260-1290 as support before a bounce to new highs. 

Currently I think the highest probability scenario is still bounce from right here to new highs rather than heading into 1200s but not holding a position either way for now.


----------



## pixel

GumbyLearner said:


> A healthy correction to US $1240 is the target IMO. This is not financial advice. I make my own money without government guarantees or printing presses.
> DYOR



 Based on Fibonacci Analysis, I have the closest support "within walking distance" to your 1240. But based on the Bearish MACD Divergence on the yearly scale, I'd be prepared for a much deeper fall. see attached chart.


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> Dude, please revisit your previous gold calls for us. You often seem to post the same call without ever revisiting your thoughts.




I've been tipping a significant correction for a few months now. As Uncle mentions the markets seem to be defying the economic data of late. I feel the POG ought not to have reached these levels but for the US rather extreme monetry policy, and corrected back somewhat earlier.

I have posted longer term charts (probably in different threads) where I expected the USDX to rally a bit again to complete a wave 'e', the final wave of a wave 4 Triangle, before continuing it's decline. Conversly, the EURUSD which makes up abt 40% of the USDX the wave 'e' decline before a push up again.

I've also mentioned (wherever it was I posted the USDX chart), that the candle formations suggest the market ought to have turned (yellow) earlier in a couple of instances but for US intervention, the trade war... hence we have ended up with what I believe is exaggerated market swings in the USD for domestic US political adgendas and reflected in all commodities and gold in particular being over stated, but for the necessary currency exchange. The USDX chart below is the old chart I posted showing the position where I believe the candle formations suggest it ought to have turned.

In short (and it may be a long bow interpreting the formations) I suggest that by using monetry policy to devalue the USD more agressively for self interest, the (natural) ebb and flow as in EW analysis has been interrupted, ie the over movements had to rebound somewhat to end up with a more complex Triangle 'B' wave of the correction.

I have also pointed out typical bear turning point formations in gold and silver that have continued to show up and be countered bullishly for some months.

The bottom line, as I have mentioned earlier also, is sooner or later the artifically lower (too soon) USD will hurt the US economy via price inflation if they persue this policy for too long. I think they need a bit of respite pretty soon to put some purchasing power back into their domestic economy. That's what I mean by the market, primiarily the USD rebounding more than probably most expect in the medium term and knee jerking the POG into a significant correction as a consequence.


----------



## sinner

Big dramas in gold town overnight



> Over the past several weeks there had been rumors that the reason for the precipitous drop in gold was primarily driven by a hedge fund liquidating its futures positions. This has now been confirmed: "Yeah, that was just me liquidating my spread position," Mr. Daniel Shak, [of SHK Asset Management] 51 years old, said in an interview. "I had a significant, fully margined position. The dollar amount of the gold liquidation was very small, it was just a lot of contracts."



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meet-man-behind-liquidating-hedge-fund-blew-gold-market

For those curious the trade in question was a 10mio calendar spread...

Meanwhile Adrian Douglas on the other side of that...


> Everyone is happily touting this story to explain the 81,000 OI cratering on Monday which was the biggest one day drop of OI in history. http://www.gata.org/node/9540 . NOT SO FAST. This is baloney in my opinion.
> 
> The last COT report shows total spreads in managed money were 63,507 contracts. This "Shak" dude is a money manager so how did he liquidate 81,000 contracts? The total reported spreads were 103,947…are we meant to believe that this one dufus from Las Vegas had 80% of all spread contracts!!??
> 
> The WSJ article just stinks. For example people don't say things like "Yeah, that was just me liquidating my spread position," Mr. Shak, 51, said in an interview. In the article it says he was down 70% but quotes him as follows: "I just chose to close, I didn't like my positions so I chose to liquidate, I wasn't forced. I was in the process of closing anyway."...You have to be kidding me!...70% down "he didn’t like his positions"!! That’s just the sort of thing an average Joe will say!
> 
> The Commodity Exchange Act provides anonymity for traders …we are still waiting for the investigation from 2008 in what happened in silver and who did what yet WSJ in a matter of days gets the name and all the trading info about the "Shak Attack". This is an early April Fool’s spoof and very conveniently put out to kill everyone’s curiosity…move along nothing to see here just one guy liquidating 81,000 spread contracts!
> 
> Let’s hear it for the CFTC and the gold cartel and Obama’s goal of more transparency!
> 
> Cheers
> Adrian




We traded below 1310 last night, so I am cautious, but still siding with bullish probability from these levels as marked on p&f chart.


----------



## Mr Z

*Hi there...*

Wait for it... wait for it! Another week or two should see it done.


----------



## Mr Z

On the Shak hedge fund --->

Mr Shak controlled in the order of 6500 contracts by my reckoning given the figures made public. He must have hit a bucket load of stops to trigger an 81000 contract decline in OI *OR* IMO the most likely explanation is that the spread trade he took was a little crowded and the small ranging price of gold across the New Year period blew the spread they had setup. They needed a bigger move and it didn't eventuate, that is probably closer to the truth. Mr Shaks position should have cost him in the order of 1.5m and he blew 70% of that, in the order of 1m. Much more sensible numbers for a 10m hedge fund than the article kind of implied @ zero hedge.

All blown out of proportion I think...


----------



## Mr Z

My target has long been $1300 in round numbers, actually around the 1296 area but perhaps that is getting a little precise. It is around 50% Fibo retracetment level on the recent rally, closing in on the 200 DMA and if we bounce out of it looks like it will keep the weekly trendline intact. Failing that I think that we are looking at the 1260 area, near logical support and the 23.6% retracetment level of the entire 2008 to date rally. I would be surprised to see it much lower and I think there is a slim chance in may hold here. I'm not big on that option, I think that there is a week or twos more work to do.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Peter Schiff - I wonder if he will win yet another public debate? 



At present his record stands at - 60 debates 51 by KO, 7 by TKO and 2 draws. 

Here's a few samples to watch for yourself


----------



## Logique

Being hopeless at timing markets,
I thought I'd close down a few gold stock shorts this morning, only to be chased up, finding that I wasn't the only one with that idea.
Updated XAU_SPX chart attached.


----------



## Mr Z

Logique said:


> Being hopeless at timing markets




Why get short a bull market in gold then?

Anyway... I think you are close, there maybe a better opportunity toward the end of this week... but... then again.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Why get short a bull market in gold then?
> 
> Anyway... I think you are close, there maybe a better opportunity toward the end of this week... but... then again.




The word *maybe* as you express is interesting.  I do not like it myself.  I follow, "when in doubt get out" and "the trend is your friend untill the bend"

Gold is in a perfect consolidation at the moment against the financial press putting on one of their greatest efforts ever to jawbone it down.   Against that you have the entire Islamic world now threatening half of the worlds oil supplies and yet Wall Street is still trying to say Ho Hum.

The dips are running out, if you need any more physical get it while it is there at these prices as they will *never *be seen again, IMVHO


OHIHTBH, WIPIEW.


----------



## Mr Z

Yeah look whatever... I am still looking for a test of 1300 and a possible go at the 200 DMA now we are close enough and with other things in the wings I can't discount that. You where saying similar last time I expressed that view... now we have come within $10 of the target and seen one short covering episode, they burn bright and short, I will be surprised if that was the bottom. Nothing is certain here, as you well know, but my read of the chart is still some further weakness to come... not a lot, it is mostly done. Anyway... we will see... a week or two at the most. In fact my best guess is it will be over very soon, say by the 7th Feb.

A USDX pop is on the cards here and may well mark the gold low.

LOL... never say never... the action into the mid year period may surprise... then *SHOCK*!

Cheers big ears!


----------



## GumbyLearner

Mr Z said:


> LOL... never say never... the action into the mid year period may surprise... *SHOCK*!




No problems Mr Z

But you forgot Moneypenny. She deserves some recognition.


----------



## Mr Z

GumbyLearner said:


> No problems Mr Z
> 
> But you forgot Moneypenny. She deserves some recognition.




From me? Why? I have never read a word of her posts... I don't keep up with this thread at all and I have been saying the same thing for months now.


----------



## uahmad

explod said:


> The word *maybe* as you express is interesting.  I do not like it myself.  I follow, "when in doubt get out" and "the trend is your friend untill the bend"
> 
> Gold is in a perfect consolidation at the moment against the financial press putting on one of their greatest efforts ever to jawbone it down.   Against that you have the entire Islamic world now threatening half of the worlds oil supplies and yet Wall Street is still trying to say Ho Hum.
> 
> The dips are running out, if you need any more physical get it while it is there at these prices as they will *never *be seen again, IMVHO
> 
> 
> OHIHTBH, WIPIEW.




I couldnt agree with this post more! The dips have been great but surely wont last.

A lot of talk about start of march when the comex contracts expire will signal the continuance of this gold & silver rally.

Get your physical now!


----------



## Logique

Mr Z said:


> Why get short a bull market in gold then?



Guilty as charged Mr Z. You gave it some thought at least. Dear Explod is utterly unflinching in this area. But there's a couple of dollars in my pocket that weren't there before, and a few more shares.


----------



## explod

A firm break of the pennant (or coiling action as Norcinin describes it http://www.jsmineset.com/) overnight.

Hope all managed to top up on the dip.  Time now to look at good gold stocks IMO, not specs but proven producers.

Cheers to bugs and back to the veggie patch.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> A firm break of the pennant (or coiling action as Norcinin describes it http://www.jsmineset.com/) overnight.
> 
> Hope all managed to top up on the dip.  Time now to look at good gold stocks IMO, not specs but proven producers.
> 
> Cheers to bugs and back to the veggie patch.




Just two charts from me today heading into the end of the week.

1:
$GOLD with $HUI overlay. As explod points out, proven producers leading the gold price upwards has been a traditionally bullish structural signal leading to higher highs in the yellow metal.

With the overnight breakout in 30y bond yields, longs taken around here should be considered from the macro perspective of oil prices, interest rates and the AUDUSD.

I have annotated the area of interest.


2:
$INDU:$GOLD, dow/gold ratio. As mentioned earlier on the last look at this chart the ratio appeared to be heading into the upper reaches of a large consolidation/range with a downward bent. 

Since then an attempt was made at the upside of the range, imho this looks like a bearish fakeout with huge "island reversal" but will let others make up their own minds, happy for discussion on the interpretation.




:EDIT 

Thought I would throw up the $INDU:$GOLD in P&F with a few horizontal lines for thought...presents a slightly different picture from the candle chart:



our veggie patch is going great and covers basically half the backyard, we eat a lot of our food from it now. Bread, cheese and a few odds and ends from the shop that's it. Silverbeet, tomatoes, eggplant, chillies, snowpeas, lettuce, beans, zucchinis, melons, pumpkins, herbs, potatoes, etc. This month we will plant some Japanese Brassicas, beetroots, burdock and others to keep the crops staggered.


----------



## Mr Z

Still not convinced that the bottom is in... I don't like the short term background... USDX & Copper etc. Nice pop though! This could be frustrating... don't be chasing parked cars just yet.... I have been buying weakness, I think that the HUI has seen its lows OR very close to them, a retest would not surprise me in the slightest. Not prepared to chase just yet... still waiting for some issues to come to me. TNX looks to have breached a line... the Fed will not be happy about that... buckle up one hell of a commodity ride is just around the corner!


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> Still not convinced that the bottom is in... I don't like the short term background... USDX & Copper etc. Nice pop though! This could be frustrating... don't be chasing parked cars just yet.... I have been buying weakness, I think that the HUI has seen its lows OR very close to them, a retest would not surprise me in the slightest. Not prepared to chase just yet... still waiting for some issues to come to me. TNX looks to have breached a line... the Fed will not be happy about that... buckle up one hell of a commodity ride is just around the corner!




Agreed Mr Z, especially USDX.

I think the key will be to see how they react to a strong risk off DX bounce. Will they retest and hold or fall through? 

Patience is definitely key, bought my last lot of Aussie gold miners for the bottom drawer in August when XGD was peeking just under 6500. We are still well above that level, whether or not we make it back to supports/resistances below 7000 and what happens when we get there should be interesting to see.

(Aug 9)


sinner said:


> With the Aussie dollar approaching its all time highs, as well and the gold oil ratio back around 14-15 I am once again interested in the long term accumulation of shares in Australian gold miners.




(Aug 24)


sinner said:


> Posted Aug 09 during Tokyo. Close of that day for XGD was 6434. 14 days later and XGD closed the day yesterday at 6636, a full 200 points higher.
> 
> Having accumulated some shares in Australian gold miners over this period and armed with this small profit, I will distribute some here back into the market to reduce exposure and retain the rest as part of my "bottom-drawer" portfolio. Once the share goes into the bottom drawer, share price is mostly irrelevant, I only plan to exit this portfolio in the very far distant future or in need of emergency cash funds.


----------



## andrewnz

USD has been dumped by neighbour ..who is next to dump?

http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3...an-government-successfully-sheds-th#more16184


----------



## starman45

Gold weekly.
Last month, the sellers had taken control of the commodity, bringing it up to 1327, area of strong support.
From there started a response from buyers, which however has not been very strong.
Risk of trading range.


----------



## explod

starman45 said:


> Gold weekly.
> Last month, the sellers had taken control of the commodity, bringing it up to 1327, area of strong support.
> From there started a response from buyers, which however has not been very strong.
> Risk of trading range.
> 
> View attachment 41231




Yep, and as the sellers did in June 2010.  Good clear chart there starman showing a nice overall uptrend.

I expect that silver may lead gold to higher levels from this week.

IMVHO

O..H..IHTBH,
WIPIEW


----------



## sinner

A little speculative here, but I am long a small amount of paper gold here 1350 before Tokyo while the Chinese are still away on holiday.

Red dotted line is proposed as support. I see resistance as 1351 and 1358 which would need to be cleared soon for a stronger move higher else we will fall back to test support again.


----------



## johenmo

Articles like this from Business Spectator today only helps to fuel the fire.  Is this a commetn on more confidence in yellow metal than paper money (the greenback)?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China's gold tsunami by Karen Maley

Published 8:25 AM, 8 Feb 2011 Last update 10:30 AM, 8 Feb 2011 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Global inflation concerns are adding to gold’s luster, with a recent report predicting that Chinese demand for gold as an inflation hedge is resulting in unprecedented physical demand for the precious metal, which will likely push prices higher this year. 

At the same time, there are signs that gold is expanding its role as an alternative currency. Overnight, the US investment bank JP Morgan Chase & Co said it would accept physical gold as collateral against securities lending and repurchase obligations. The bank explained that many of its clients held gold on their balance sheets as an inflation hedge, and wanted to use this gold as collateral for financial transactions. 

The latest newsletter from Sprott Asset Management, entitled ‘Gold Tsunami’, focuses on gold’s attractiveness as an inflation hedge for Chinese and Indian investors. It argues that while western investors are content to hold paper assets, such as stocks, bonds, annuities and insurance, along with their real estate investments, the attitude of Chinese and Indian investors is very different. 

"Halfway across the world, investors in China and India have never trusted paper investments as a store of value – and they’re converting their hard earned paper money into gold and silver bullion. Not that this is anything new. It isn’t. But the scale and speed with which they are accumulating precious metals IS new, and it’s driving the fundamentals that we believe will lead to higher prices in 2011." 

It’s not hard to understand the growing Chinese enthusiasm for gold. Officially, China’s inflation rate was 4.6 per cent in December, but many believe the actual inflation rate is considerably higher. But Chinese savers earn a paltry interest rate of 2.75 per cent on one-year deposits, which means that they face negative real interest rates. 

Faced with these dismal returns, Chinese households and businesses have been pouring money into physical assets, such as food, real estate, and commodities as a hedge against inflation. Chinese authorities are now trying to quell property market speculation by making it more difficult for buyers to get bank finance for their second and third investment properties, and have begun experimenting with property taxes in some cities. 

This has caused Chinese investors to turn to gold. According to the Sprott newsletter, China, which is already the world’s largest gold producer, imported more than 209 metric tons of gold in the first ten months of 2010 alone. This compares with the estimated 45 metric tons it imported in all of 2009. 

What’s more, it is clear that gold is being bought as an investment, rather than for jewellery. According to World Gold Council figures, Chinese retail demand for gold jumped 70 per cent between October 2009 and September 2010, but in the same period the demand for gold jewellery rose by a much more modest 8 per cent. 

According to the Sprott letter, “There is a clear trend developing for Chinese investment in gold as a monetary asset, and China is buying so much gold for investment purposes that it now threatens to supersede India as the world’s largest gold consumer.” 

The newsletter notes that total Chinese demand for gold in 2010 is expected to reach approximately 600 tonnes, just behind India’s 800 tonnes. This would mean that together the two countries would account for more than half of estimated world mine production of 2,652 tonnes in 2010. 

The Chinese are also showing a voracious appetite for silver, with silver imports increasing fourfold in 2010 from the previous year. In 2005, the Chinese were exporters of silver, selling more than 100 million ounces on world markets. But by 2010, they were big buyers, importing more than 120 million ounces. This represents a huge swing in a market that in 2009 supplied a total of 889 million ounces. 

At the same time, it’s also becoming easier for the Chinese to invest in gold. 

The Sprott newsletter points out that Chinese citizens have only been able to purchase gold freely since the early 2000s, when the long-term monopoly of the Chinese central bank was abolished. 

But last year, an initiative between the Industrial Commercial Bank of China – which is the world’s largest consumer bank, with about 212 million separate accounts – and the World Gold Council, set up a gold accumulation investment plan which made it even easier for investors in mainland China to accumulate gold. The new investment plan requires a minimum investment of either 200 renminbi ($US30.50) a month, or one gram of gold per day (worth about $US42). 

The investing Chinese public has responded extremely enthusiastically. Since the plan was launched last April, one million accounts have been set up, which has already resulted in the purchase of 10 tonnes of gold. 

Now, so far, the ICBC has only made the gold investment product available in some Chinese cities. Sprott Asset Management estimates that if the plan were expanded throughout ICBC’s network, and China’s next four largest banks launched similar plans, then this could result in an extra 300 tonnes of gold being bought each year, or more than 10 per cent of estimated 2010 global gold production. 

It’s notoriously difficult to estimate future gold demand. However, there is a strong case that Chinese demand for gold as an inflation hedge will remain strong for as long as the Chinese authorities keep real interest rates artificially low. 

And with the Chinese government worried that higher interest rates will put upward pressure on their exchange rate, and undermine the profitability of Chinese firms, it’s unlikely to take bold tightening steps any time soon. 

According to Sprott Asset Management, “We believe Asian demand for physical gold and silver is akin to a tsunami. While precious metals prices have corrected on the paper exchanges, the inflation resurgence in Asia is quietly driving new, unforeseen levels of physical demand for the metals. 

“While the world continues to float on a sea of paper, this massive wave of physical demand silently threatens tocrash into the physical gold and silver market, potentially wiping out tangible supply.”


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> A little speculative here, but I am long a small amount of paper gold here 1350 before Tokyo while the Chinese are still away on holiday.
> 
> Red dotted line is proposed as support. I see resistance as 1351 and 1358 which would need to be cleared soon for a stronger move higher else we will fall back to test support again.
> 
> View attachment 41259




A great move up in gold overnight, taking profit here before Tokyo opens at just under $15/oz...entries and exits annotated.




These sort of moves are highly speculative as stated, but sometimes they pay off and allow me to put the profits into actual gold or other hard assets.


----------



## fanger

I'd just wish my gold stock(KCN) would rise with the gold price.


----------



## starman45

But buyers have won this week.
However, there is some difficulty in overcoming the resistance 1369.
Chart daily.


----------



## explod

An intersting article on the distinctions between investment and or trading gold as apposed to the growing trend of hoarding gold.

The argument raised is that perhaps normal technical chart anaylsis does not present the overall picture.

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles archive/2011.02.08 Metals_technical.htm


----------



## explod

Silver, having jumped US$4 an ounce in the last few weeks is close again to its 30 year high at US$30.80

This move by silver on a Monday is also very bullish in my view.

When/if silver closes and consolidates above this level the gold price should make another run and cross its all time high of US$1423.70

This is pure speculation based upon my own observations.

Looking forward to Electronicmaster's insert to the silver thread.


----------



## skcots

Thanks for the article Expold.

It would be interesting to find out the ratio of over the counter bullion sold to bullion bought to get an idea of hording.


----------



## tinhat

fanger said:


> I'd just wish my gold stock(KCN) would rise with the gold price.




I took a look at KCN recently because on first glance, it's falling share price seems looks to be good value. I'm a bit worried however at their recent acquisitions of Laguna Resources and Dominion Mining. The price seems to have bottomed at the moment. Do you have any view about whether these acquisitions are going to add to or be a drain on the bottom line in the short term?

I did buy some MML recently and will be looking to top up that holding when opportunities arise to do so.

My position on gold is long term bullish but I am sure there will be volatility in the short and medium term.


----------



## fanger

tinhat said:


> I took a look at KCN recently because on first glance, it's falling share price seems looks to be good value. I'm a bit worried however at their recent acquisitions of Laguna Resources and Dominion Mining. The price seems to have bottomed at the moment. Do you have any view about whether these acquisitions are going to add to or be a drain on the bottom line in the short term?




I can only see it as a good thing in the long run. Dominion Mining is producing and making a profit, not sure why KCN bought Laguna Resources.


----------



## iced earth

_*Gold-17.02.11*_

Gold is still moving on Bullish trend which started from 22.10.2008 (price $682) . the blue uptrend support line and the internal red line didn't allow gold fall below $1308


----------



## starman45

Nice breakout!
Daily chart.


----------



## Bullion Money

Very interesting charts last night.

Massive move in silver not so much with gold.

the AUD moved a fair bit too which decreased the % increase for gold and silver.

Interesting to see what happens tonight O/S


----------



## Myse

I think Gold prices will be in for a bullish year.
$1400-$1500 p/oz.


----------



## Bullion Money

Myse said:


> I think Gold prices will be in for a bullish year.
> $1400-$1500 p/oz.




Agreed and silver will hit $50 this year. (my belief) then retract and settle about 45ish.

Worthwhile checking out the silver chart right now!

Silver up 3%!


----------



## sinner

Great moves in gold, silver and their respective primary producers since my last post.

Managed to grab a couple of daily calls last week 31.20 and 32.60, which provided great returns for the day they were tracking (Thursday and Friday of last week respectively). The 32.60 call was awesome, but I ended up getting out at way less than the maximal profit offered  because of that takedown into the COMEX close Fri night. Earlier took that paper gold long mentioned here so currently loving this bull.

No charts from me right now, the old ones still contain the info required. Gold:Oil and Dow:Gold seem to be the ratios to watch for clues.


----------



## Mr Z

I'm looking for a confirming higher low here... 50DMA is best case. 200DMA not off the table until that has been put in place. Nice strength in silver, golds limited confirmation will have the market worried. I think we are close to done here but not out of the woods... a week or two max ---> I hope   :


----------



## GumbyLearner

GumbyLearner said:


> Did you read the piece on RNG explod?
> 
> That read like a ramp and yet Michael Pascoe gave gold a pasting in his piece.
> 
> Only time will tell. Haven't heard anything to change the fact that gold is in diminishing supply. Haven't heard anything either about people spending less on daily consumables or decreases in Un or Underemployment *in developed G8 economies*
> 
> What's next for the deflationists? I suppose it will be to argue that Engel's Coefficient doesn't really exist and now that developing nations have more purchasing power and production they will buy less commodities due to rising incomes and prosperity. Who needs a healthy diet when you're a rapidly growing developing country opening up to the free market for the first time and have infrastructure pipeline projects to build for the next couple of decades? It does require an abstract view of things and the future to really get why gold is now trading with 3 zero's. Oh and not to mention, that a portion of that new found wealth in these places will not consider gold as an investment India No.1 and China No.2.
> 
> So as a result a bear market in commodities will trounce gold! As if...  IMHO
> 
> 
> Happy days!




I love the gold thread. or as Peter Schiff would say "look in the rear-view mirror". There is no inflation. 
As the mob would say *""Forget about it""* 

Sept 4, 2009 

[video]http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1252074153.php[/video]


----------



## GumbyLearner

Revisiting the thread this is great to explain whats going on. Whether you agree with the presenter/mechanics analysis is up to you?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7924506.stm


----------



## Bullion Money

GumbyLearner said:


> Revisiting the thread this is great to explain whats going on. Whether you agree with the presenter/mechanics analysis is up to you?
> 
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7924506.stm




I love it how Zimb was ridiculed for printing money and when the western governments do it no one knows/understands it.

Granted Zimbabwe was doing it on a larger scale and had some more underlining problems.

But still...


The conversation at the water cooler with one guy was 
"the bloody Zimbabweans printing money like no tomorrow"
i replied, "so are we"
"yeh but were different.." and on he went talking when he should have kept his mouth shut, clearly had no idea, just our typical mentality "were Australians, were different, our housing markets different no crash....."


----------



## tothemax6

Bullion Money said:


> I love it how Zimb was ridiculed for printing money and when the western governments do it no one knows/understands it.
> 
> Granted Zimbabwe was doing it on a larger scale and had some more underlining problems.
> 
> But still...
> 
> 
> The conversation at the water cooler with one guy was
> "the bloody Zimbabweans printing money like no tomorrow"
> i replied, "so are we"
> "yeh but were different.." and on he went talking when he should have kept his mouth shut, clearly had no idea, just our typical mentality "were Australians, were different, our housing markets different no crash....."



Since when is Australia printing money like no tomorrow?


----------



## GumbyLearner

tothemax6 said:


> Since when is Australia printing money like no tomorrow?




It's not tothemax6.

It's borrowing it like there is no tomorrow!


----------



## TabJockey

The budget deficit is small by anyone's standards. To argue otherwise is crazy talk. What its being spent on is another argument not of this thread, but you cant argue about its size.


----------



## GumbyLearner

TabJockey said:


> The budget deficit is small by anyone's standards. To argue otherwise is crazy talk. What its being spent on is another argument not of this thread, but you cant argue about its size.




Do you mean borrowing compared to other countries generating month-on-month current account surplus results?


----------



## TabJockey

I mean net debt situation, which is one of the most relevant yard sticks (MoM balance wtf?).


----------



## tothemax6

GumbyLearner said:


> It's not tothemax6.
> 
> It's borrowing it like there is no tomorrow!



Yeah, I guess kind of the same thing in a way, since credit is used as a money substitute (bank deposits are 'money' etc). The crazy woman did promise to bring the budget back to surplus though, but we all know what her word is worth, so one can assume the deficit will double instead.


----------



## GumbyLearner

U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion

February 16, 2010 | 
WASHINGTON””The U.S. economy ceased to function this week after unexpected existential remarks by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke shocked Americans into realizing that money is, in fact, just a meaningless and intangible social construct.

Calling it "basically no more than five rectangular strips of paper," Fed chairman Ben Bernanke illustrates how much "$200" is actually worth.

What began as a routine report before the Senate Finance Committee Tuesday ended with Bernanke passionately disavowing the entire concept of currency, and negating in an instant the very foundation of the world's largest economy.

"Though raising interest rates is unlikely at the moment, the Fed will of course act appropriately if we…if we…" said Bernanke, who then paused for a moment, looked down at his prepared statement, and shook his head in utter disbelief. "You know what? It doesn't matter. None of this””this so-called 'money'””really matters at all."

"It's just an illusion," a wide-eyed Bernanke added as he removed bills from his wallet and slowly spread them out before him. "Just look at it: Meaningless pieces of paper with numbers printed on them. Worthless."

According to witnesses, Finance Committee members sat in thunderstruck silence for several moments until Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) finally shouted out, "Oh my God, he's right. It's all a mirage. All of it””the money, our whole economy””it's all a lie!"

READ MORE HERE

http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-economy-grinds-to-halt-as-nation-realizes-money,2912/


----------



## GumbyLearner

The Next *Inside Job*: A work in progress. 
It certainly will not involve anybody winning an Oscar for best documentary.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cb...atility-launches-futures-and-options-gold-vix

*CBOE To Add Another Layer Of Gold Price Volatility, Launches Futures And Options On Gold VIX *

It's not quite a triple forward (or inverse) ETF on gold just yet, but it's a start. Capitalizing on the surge in volatility in the commodity space, which together with FX has become the go to arena for day traders seeking volatility, which has been completely eradicated from stocks courtesy of the Bernanke Put, the CBOE and CFE have "announced plans to launch futures and options on the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (Ticker - GVZ). Pending regulatory approval, CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) will begin trading GVZ futures on Friday, March 25, and CBOE will introduce GVZ options a few weeks later." The reason for this product to be pushed on investors is that after peaking near 25 in December, the ^GVZ has plunged to one year lows as gold has steadily remained just off its all time highs. So if the first volatility derivative isn't generating the much needed commission broker P&L, it is time to break out 2nd and further vol derivatives. We expect a triple or more-leveraged ETF on gold and silver to arrive shortly, then followed by an ETF which tracks the theta in the first ETF , and so forth, until the entire market is dominated by "synthetic CDO-like" derivatives and nobody cares about the actual underlying, just so traders have something to keep them occupied. After all diversion, is half the battle.


----------



## Sean K

GumbyLearner said:


> U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion
> 
> February 16, 2010 |
> WASHINGTON””The U.S. economy ceased to function this week after unexpected existential remarks by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke shocked Americans into realizing that money is, in fact, just a meaningless and intangible social construct]



What's the point Gumby?

That was a joke right?


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> What's the point Gumby?
> 
> That was a joke right?




The point is that the current policies adopted by central banks around the world mean that the price of Gold in US dollars/British Pounds are bound to only increase in 2011.




As you can see from the latest February 2011 US Federal Reserve chart, the monetary base has increased even further than it had in 2010. Therefore, I'm of the opinion that the Gold price and other PMs will continue the bull run this year. 
This is probably contrary to the opinions of many others. 

DYOR


----------



## Sean K

GumbyLearner said:


> The point is that the current policies adopted by central banks around the world mean that the price of Gold in US dollars/British Pounds are bound to only increase in 2011.



I'm not sure it says that at all.

So, you think that site is worth reading and full of informed and well researched information?


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> I'm not sure it says that at all.
> 
> So, you think that site is worth reading and full of informed and well researched information?




Well no not exactly. But I thought the writer had drawn a great analogy with the current position being maintained by a Central Banker even if he did so unwittingly. 

I apologize if you are unable to see the lighter side of it.


----------



## Agentm

thanks for that kennas and gumby

been splitting my sides here reading this last part of the thread

irony is always gold..


----------



## mr. jeff

Do you think that the money printing that Japan has done will have an inflationary effect? Could this be further fuel for the PGM fire?


----------



## explod

mr. jeff said:


> Do you think that the money printing that Japan has done will have an inflationary effect? Could this be further fuel for the PGM fire?
> 
> View attachment 41913




With very little productivity it is a lot of contined dilution.

A bit of a no brainer really.

But I am just the mug stockpiling silver and continuing to expand my vegie patch.  My neibour now has 20 chooks who love my spare green leaf and he loves my tomatoes at the moment.  In the shops $6+ a kilo.

But I must submit that gold has consolidated very well the last six months.  The last consolidation was in the US$1000 area 08/09.  Back further 06/07 in the US%700 area.

So the next breakout should see US$1800  

We shall see.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> With very little productivity it is a lot of contined dilution.
> 
> A bit of a no brainer really.
> 
> But I am just the mug stockpiling silver and continuing to expand my vegie patch.  My neibour now has 20 chooks who love my spare green leaf and he loves my tomatoes at the moment.  In the shops $6+ a kilo.
> 
> But I must submit that gold has consolidated very well the last six months.  The last consolidation was in the US$1000 area 08/09.  Back further 06/07 in the US%700 area.
> 
> So the next breakout should see US$1800
> 
> We shall see.




Great summary explod


----------



## GumbyLearner




----------



## GumbyLearner

from 50 years ago........buy physical gold bullion


----------



## GumbyLearner

Protect YOURSELF!


----------



## GumbyLearner




----------



## nukz




----------



## Logique

explod said:


> ...My neighbour now has 20 chooks who love my spare green leaf...But I must submit that gold has consolidated very well the last six months.  The last consolidation was in the US$1000 area 08/09.  Back further 06/07 in the US%700 area...



G'day Explod, checking at the US Dollar index this morning, it's looking over the edge of a cliff (of size unknown), being now down at previous Nov 2010 support levels, and gold and silver moved up last night.

I noticed GG's chooks are working to manage the daylight saving time changeover, I hope your neighbour's chooks have some systems in place.

Youtube video posters - great over on the music thread, I'm just not sure I want to see videos populating the gold price thread, which as we know is the premiere thread on ASF.


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> G'day Explod, checking at the US Dollar index this morning, it's looking over the edge of a cliff (of size unknown), being now down at previous Nov 2010 support levels, and gold and silver moved up last night.
> 
> I noticed GG's chooks are working to manage the daylight saving time changeover, I hope your neighbour's chooks have some systems in place.
> 
> Youtube video posters - great over on the music thread, I'm just not sure I want to see videos populating the gold price thread, which as we know is the premiere thread on ASF.




Good point there Logique and with your great contributions we doo keep up a good show.  

But alas we do have a sad world and any cheer we can squeeze in is to be welcomed.  Go Gumby ole pal.

And my good dog Max keeps a wary eye on the chooks and I think they sense that even if the sun changes to the middle of the night they may have to perform.   I do know the farmers have a lot of trouble with the cows in the daylight saving department but as it looks like they are watering some of the milk down things may sort themselves out.

Hard to see the US$ holding up with the need for more q/e, so yes a watershed week could be coming up.  I think the bond market will be the killer of all soon, But JMHO.


----------



## GumbyLearner

There is a new buyer in the market.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/cc350008-53...il/InboxLight.aspx?n=2009498268#axzz1HGgMye3T

DYOR


----------



## explod

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/18575-gold-falls-as-investors-look-for-risk.html

Yet gold hit new intra day highs through the week and silver this week closed at a 31 year high.

Beats me.


----------



## Mr Z

5 of the last 6 days have been down in AUD terms.  circa $40 AUD down.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> 5 of the last 6 days have been down in AUD terms.  circa $40 AUD down.




The article was addressing itself to the US$ situation.

The gains in gold and silver relative to our own currency has been a great ride over the last few years so do not really see your point.


----------



## Mr Z

You are Australian, gold has been essentially been ranging sideways for around a year in AUD and is well below June 10 highs of 1532... don't get too excited, this is not a strong market until it moves in AUD and other strong currencies.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> You are Australian, gold has been essentially been ranging sideways for around a year in AUD and is well below June 10 highs of 1532... don't get too excited, this is not a strong market until it moves in AUD and other strong currencies.




Who's getting excited.   Have been invested in p/m's (physical in my own vault) since 05 and have followed the story since 04.

I do not bother with the short term.  In the longer term gold and silver will continue to rise overall in all currencies.  At the moment there is a lot of evidence to suggest that they are both about to break out into much higher territory and if silver goes beyond US$50 that will mean all currencies.   A bit to go yet but it is up 100% since last August so could be on the cusp of it.  So is worth bringing the topic it to notice IMHO.

Worth you having a good read over this thread Z.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Who's getting excited.   Have been invested in p/m's (physical in my own vault) since 05 and have followed the story since 04.
> 
> I do not bother with the short term.  In the longer term gold and silver will continue to rise overall in all currencies.  At the moment there is a lot of evidence to suggest that they are both about to break out into much higher territory and if silver goes beyond US$50 that will mean all currencies.   A bit to go yet but it is up 100% since last August so could be on the cusp of it.  So is worth bringing the topic it to notice IMHO.
> 
> Worth you having a good read over this thread Z.




LOL... yup thanks for the egg to suck! 05 eh? That makes you a Johnny come lately in my world.  Oh jeeeeezzz.... BTW I make my living trading gold and silver.

Read the thread, hmmmm... NO THANKS... I have better ways to spend my time, been there done that.

Either way gold is 10% off its AUD highs of last year... this old girl needs to get out of bed an get moving.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Either way gold is 10% off its AUD highs of last year... this old girl needs to get out of bed an get moving.




The Aussie dollar is up more than that so in the end it is all relative and as a tangible asset aussie physical is worth more in its purchasing power.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Still waiting for upside.


----------



## Mr Z

It feels like it wants to break up, very technical I know! I am running into more bearish commentary than bullish, ironically most of it saying there are too many bulls. In my world this favors the bullish outcome. I suspect it should be good through until May, possibly June but we do need to break out of these price levels soon. Breaking USD 1450 should invite a fresh round of buying, then we can hope for a better AUD result.

The commentary I am getting from the research boys suggests USD 1.10 AUD is possible here, not so good for AUD gold but we should be able to out run it. First technical targets are in the mid USD 1600's with further upside not out of the question. We will see what it looks like if we get there.

As for a top here and now, all I will say is it does not feel/look like a gold top to me.


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> not so good for AUD gold but we should be able to out run it.




Personally, happy for the AUD to keep AUDPOG flat or even down.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Personally, happy for the AUD to keep AUDPOG flat or even down.




Probably will for some time but why?


----------



## explod

"Dan Denning: The gold price eased back to around $1,400 an ounce last week. But for ten years gold has gone up in pretty much every currency. You're starting to see talk that gold is now in a financial bubble, akin to the dotcom one. What's your take on that?

Greg Canavan: It's foolish, and pretty uninformed. A financial bubble is when greedy speculators buy something based on no fundamental reason...just on the assumption there will be a 'greater fool' to sell it to at a higher future price. Firstly it assumes that gold is over-owned. But if you look at the data it's still actually a very under-owned asset class. Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management makes the point perfectly. *He cites from the Gold Yearbook 2010 that gold held by private investors in 1968 made up 5% of global financial assets. Last year, ten years into the recent gold boom, gold comprised just 0.7% of global financial assets.* Most people don't own gold. It's that simple. You can't have a bubble in something until most people own it. I know the line of thinking you're referencing...the idea that gold has 'crossed over' into the mainstream imagination. But it hasn't. Gold is still decidedly fringe." 

The emphsis is mine and you can read more at:-

ahttps://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/12f14758793ebb9f

With the US dollar index dropping below .76, oil also closing the week at US$108 and both gold and silver near to much higher territory(IMHO), the coming week could be interesting.


----------



## Mr Z

We are very near blast off or blow up time.... kinda makes you feel like a shuttle commander, don't it? 

I still favour strength into May, maybe even June but we will see!

 :


----------



## Bullion Money

Mr Z said:


> We are very near blast off or blow up time.... kinda makes you feel like a shuttle commander, don't it?
> 
> I still favour strength into May, maybe even June but we will see!
> 
> :




I know what you mean with this. I get this feeling too especially with gold.

Next 2-3 weeks will be interesting.


----------



## boyley

Bullion Money said:


> I know what you mean with this. I get this feeling too especially with gold.
> 
> Next 2-3 weeks will be interesting.




gold may head north but the strengthening Adollar will negate all gains


----------



## explod

boyley said:


> gold may head north but the strengthening Adollar will negate all gains




Do not agree, since 2000 Aus gold is up 350%, since 2005 up 110%.

Gold will continue perform well against all currencies (as it has been doing) whilst governments everywhere continue to print money out of thin air and borrow beyond their means.


----------



## Mr Z

Bullion Money said:


> I know what you mean with this. I get this feeling too especially with gold.
> 
> Next 2-3 weeks will be interesting.




Yes.... very, sooner I am thinking, like probably this week.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Really? Who would have known?

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/08/markets/gold/?section=money_latest

I'm going down to my local cafe to selectively read the newspaper tomorrow morning. 

Paradise

thankyou
GumbyLearner


----------



## Mr Z

It feels like the excitement phase is kicking in. Beware kids, too much excitement leads to exhaustion.  The USD high number here could get a little  ing.


----------



## youngone

Any recommendation which stocks for for watchlist?


----------



## explod

youngone said:


> Any recommendation which stocks for for watchlist?




We are not allowed to give out recommendations on ASF.

Its an offence unless you are a qualified financial adviser.

However on the threads here you will see what different members say about certain stock so a bit of research will soon put you in the picture.

Have a look at the threads on NCM and OGC for an idea.  Poster Kennas is well worth following for detail, he is a very experienced poster/investor and also I think still maintans a spread sheet on Aussie gold stocks.

I hold OGC and AYN


----------



## GumbyLearner

Gold to go up again. 

Here's why today's United States CPI figures are a bunch of economic-jibberish.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

After former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was appointed in 1979, the consumer price index surged into the double digits, causing the now revered Fed Chief to double the benchmark interest rate in order to break the back of inflation. Using the methodology in place at that time puts the CPI back near those levels.

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter’s web site, Shadowstats.com.

“Near-term circumstances generally have continued to deteriorate,” said John Williams, creator of the site, in a new note out Tuesday. “Though not yet commonly recognized, there is both an intensifying double-dip recession and a rapidly escalating inflation problem.  Until such time as financial-market expectations catch up with underlying reality, reporting generally will continue to show higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected economic results in the month and months ahead.”



The pay-site and newsletter by Williams, an economic consultant for the last 30 years to companies, has gained a cult following among bloggers hungry to criticize Bernanke these days. The mission statement of the newsletter, according to the site, is to expose and analyze “flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting…net of financial-market and political hype.”


Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of March’s CPI reading on Friday. The consensus estimate from economists is for an annual inflation rate of 2.6 percent.

“Given ongoing inflation problems with food and the spreading impact of higher oil-related costs in the broad economy, reporting risk is to the upside of consensus expectation,” said Williams, citing a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in March, in the note.

“While the federal government would have us believe the numbers are rather tame, our own personal gauge leads us to believe inflation is running between 5 percent to 6 percent annually,” wrote Alan Newman in his latest Crosscurrents newsletter that refers to Williams’ statistics.

Newman uses recent comments from Walmart CEO Bill Simon that inflation is going to be “serious” to back up the much higher CPI figures from him and Williams.
Beyond the money

“Given Walmart’s [WMT  53.52    0.70  (+1.33%)   ] sales of $422 billion, we think Mr. Simon has a good idea of what’s in the pipeline,” said Newman.

To be sure, the BLS argues that the changes it has made over the last three decades more accurately reflect a true change in the cost of living. For example, in response to its hedonic adjustments, the BLS web site states, “to measure price change accurately, the CPI must be able to distinguish the portion of price change due to this quality change.



Still, going by recent strong comments from Federal Reserve officials, even members of the central bank must believe inflation is being underreported. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said in a speech last week that the central bank was reaching a “tipping point” as far as changing its policy so it can react to inflation. Maybe Fisher stumbled across Shadowstats.com. The voting member did, after all, mention Volcker in the same speech.

“The need to break the back of that (budgetary debt) spiral is as dire now as was the need for Paul Volcker to break the back of inflation in the 1980s,” said Fisher on April 8th. “As a result of his steadfast determination to press on with exorcising inflation, Mr. Volcker is today among the most respected living Americans and widely considered an exeplar for public servants worldwide.”

DISC: Holding Au


----------



## Jhenry

GumbyLearner said:


> Gold to go up again.
> 
> Here's why today's United States CPI figures are a bunch of economic-jibberish.
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209
> 
> After former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was appointed in 1979, the consumer price index surged into the double digits, causing the now revered Fed Chief to double the benchmark interest rate in order to break the back of inflation. Using the methodology in place at that time puts the CPI back near those levels.
> 
> Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.
> 
> Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter’s web site, Shadowstats.com.
> 
> “Near-term circumstances generally have continued to deteriorate,” said John Williams, creator of the site, in a new note out Tuesday. “Though not yet commonly recognized, there is both an intensifying double-dip recession and a rapidly escalating inflation problem.  Until such time as financial-market expectations catch up with underlying reality, reporting generally will continue to show higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected economic results in the month and months ahead.”
> 
> 
> 
> The pay-site and newsletter by Williams, an economic consultant for the last 30 years to companies, has gained a cult following among bloggers hungry to criticize Bernanke these days. The mission statement of the newsletter, according to the site, is to expose and analyze “flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting…net of financial-market and political hype.”
> 
> 
> Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of March’s CPI reading on Friday. The consensus estimate from economists is for an annual inflation rate of 2.6 percent.
> 
> “Given ongoing inflation problems with food and the spreading impact of higher oil-related costs in the broad economy, reporting risk is to the upside of consensus expectation,” said Williams, citing a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in March, in the note.
> 
> “While the federal government would have us believe the numbers are rather tame, our own personal gauge leads us to believe inflation is running between 5 percent to 6 percent annually,” wrote Alan Newman in his latest Crosscurrents newsletter that refers to Williams’ statistics.
> 
> Newman uses recent comments from Walmart CEO Bill Simon that inflation is going to be “serious” to back up the much higher CPI figures from him and Williams.
> Beyond the money
> 
> “Given Walmart’s [WMT  53.52    0.70  (+1.33%)   ] sales of $422 billion, we think Mr. Simon has a good idea of what’s in the pipeline,” said Newman.
> 
> To be sure, the BLS argues that the changes it has made over the last three decades more accurately reflect a true change in the cost of living. For example, in response to its hedonic adjustments, the BLS web site states, “to measure price change accurately, the CPI must be able to distinguish the portion of price change due to this quality change.
> 
> 
> 
> Still, going by recent strong comments from Federal Reserve officials, even members of the central bank must believe inflation is being underreported. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said in a speech last week that the central bank was reaching a “tipping point” as far as changing its policy so it can react to inflation. Maybe Fisher stumbled across Shadowstats.com. The voting member did, after all, mention Volcker in the same speech.
> 
> “The need to break the back of that (budgetary debt) spiral is as dire now as was the need for Paul Volcker to break the back of inflation in the 1980s,” said Fisher on April 8th. “As a result of his steadfast determination to press on with exorcising inflation, Mr. Volcker is today among the most respected living Americans and widely considered an exemplar for public servants worldwide.”
> 
> DISC: Holding Au




Its a interested topic, this is really challenging my ability to follow these posts. But keep it going.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Jhenry said:


> Its a interested topic, this is really challenging my ability to follow these posts. But keep it going.




Welcome JHenry. Read the entire thread. Take special notice of who is still posting and who isn't. Also take note of the price of gold during the times of postings and the calls made by those that posted. Your own simple deductive logic should suffice. 

Cheers
GL


----------



## tothemax6

Well the feds inflation figures have been garbage for quite a while. If I recall correctly they were excluding house prices leading up to 2008.
And of course Bernanke, the quack that he is, says he doesn't mind the rise in food and energy prices so long as it doesn't seep into the 'core'. WTF. Typically mentality of a central planner. 

Tothemax6, still dreaming of a capitalist society.


----------



## Jhenry

GumbyLearner said:


> Welcome JHenry. Read the entire thread. Take special notice of who is still posting and who isn't. Also take note of the price of gold during the times of postings and the calls made by those that posted. Your own simple deductive logic should suffice.
> 
> Cheers
> GL




Thanks, I am definitely going to be learning a lot fast.


----------



## Ageo

Ok on the physical front, the other day i was @ my local bullion exchange and there was a 10 people line up out the door, when i got inside there were people everywhere and i asked the CEO if there was an apocalypse coming that i wasnt aware of...... they just said "no idea but its crazy!"

Out of all my yrs of business in this game i have never seen such a thing...... makes for interesting times ahead indeed


----------



## Good Vibes

nukz said:


>





That was the funniest video.....




> Since you came supply is lost without a trace
> I dream at night that I punch you in the face....
> Your interest policies I cannot embrace
> I feel so wronged and I long for Greenspan's place
> 
> I keep cryin' Benny! Benny! Pleeeeze........
> 
> Boo hoo hoo
> Boo hoo hoo
> Boo hoo hoo




(The students at Columbia Business School are very talented.)

Gold must go to $3000...because George Soros said it would  - then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Au at (unadjusted for inflation) all time high and no big deal? Sold my Minelab  GPX when 1000 per ounce and retrospectively a wrong decision. 

Couldn't find any at Warwick anyway.


----------



## Bullion Money

Ageo said:


> Ok on the physical front, the other day i was @ my local bullion exchange and there was a 10 people line up out the door, when i got inside there were people everywhere and i asked the CEO if there was an apocalypse coming that i wasnt aware of...... they just said "no idea but its crazy!"
> 
> Out of all my yrs of business in this game i have never seen such a thing...... makes for interesting times ahead indeed




This month has been the busiest I have seen ever. We had to take on extra staff to take and manage orders.

Absolutely nuts.

Perth Mint have stopped taking orders for Silver bars until further notice. Cant recall them doing that ever!


----------



## sinner

Bullion Money said:


> This month has been the busiest I have seen ever. We had to take on extra staff to take and manage orders.
> 
> Absolutely nuts.
> 
> Perth Mint have stopped taking orders for Silver bars until further notice. Cant recall them doing that ever!




I placed my first order with BullionMoney.com.au on Friday during Tokyo hours after discovering them about 2 weeks earlier.

Can we have an ASF discount?


----------



## explod

All quiet on the gold thread so cant' be much doing. 

No reports; and mine were too buggish anyway.

Lollie pops and roses and back to the vegie patch.


----------



## explod

Gold hitting US$1,500 this arvo.

Sold my gold last year to put it all into silver, figure that.

The World Gold Council, Donald Trump and noddy Kitco Nadler indicate sell, figure that.

Very bullish if you ask me.

Cheers to all physical holders.


----------



## ivanyo

It's any man's guess really...


----------



## Logique

Damn, I have just got to get onto Amazon and start browsing for bargains. The little Aussie battler trading above 1.07 USD, with momentum intact. 

The USD index breached a crucial  downside technical level (<75) , also with momentum intact.

All good for precious metals.


----------



## Bullion Money

sinner said:


> I placed my first order with BullionMoney.com.au on Friday during Tokyo hours after discovering them about 2 weeks earlier.
> 
> Can we have an ASF discount?




Im sure we can sort out an ASF discount, you didn't mention you were form here when you bought?

Next time im sure we can work something out.

Cheers


----------



## explod

With the price of gold in my view looking to break out this week and a number of pundits fearing it may be over heated I felt that those new to the subject may derive benefit from the following take on gold by Doug Casey.

This article gives a good outline of its history as money and its value over other assets including paper money.

I did post this up on the silver thread last night but believe it needs wide circulation due to current interest.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1303671600.php


----------



## Bullion Money

Nice read. Thanks for the post.


----------



## Logique

Hey BM and others, I took the trouble to check the website, very impressive, and the prices look fair.

Upon purchasing the physical, what to do about storage? Bank vault, secure storage specialists etc? Also I've heard supply is tight with some products - the bars in particular?


----------



## Bullion Money

Logique said:


> Hey BM and others, I took the trouble to check the website, very impressive, and the prices look fair.
> 
> Upon purchasing the physical, what to do about storage? Bank vault, secure storage specialists etc? Also I've heard supply is tight with some products - the bars in particular?




Hey Mate, Supply is tight in physical silver at the moment.

All silver bar production have been on halt approx 1.5 weeks ago from the Perth Mint. They are not taking any further orders, when they do start taking orders I would think delivery would be approx June/July.

1kg Silver coins are readily available these are very popular since they get shipped to Europe in enormous Quantities. (Europeans don't pay tax on denominated coins)

The 1oz Lunar rabbit coins reached there max mintage at the start of the year
The 1oz Kookaburra reached its mintage approx 1 month ago
The 1oz Koala has an unlimited mintage and is readily available
The 1oz Mouse (2008 Lunar Series) was re-released to make up its max mintage. That is now complete and they are not available either.
All the 10oz and 5oz coins are not available and will not be available until the new lunar series is released in Sept.

The last 3 months has see the worst delivery times from the Perth Mint since I have been in PM stuff. Perth Mint repeatedly say its not the shortage of raw silver rather then the production demand they are having trouble to meet....

Read that any way you want.

Gold products are not a problem.

We keep a decent amount of stock of both Gold and Silver products for immediate delivery. But at this stage we wont ship any Silver bars until Perth Mint decide to take our orders to replenish our existing stock...

Now in regards to storage...

There are many options for storage, you only need to do a quick Google search and you will find a lot of options.

Gold is obviously easier to store/hide. Gold the size of your iPhone would be worth approx $50k. Im sure you can find a safe spot for something of that size? 

Silver, again plenty of options - Home safes, bank deposit box, safety vaults, buried in the ground etc etc...

Cheers.


----------



## kitehigh

Logique said:


> Upon purchasing the physical, what to do about storage? Bank vault, secure storage specialists etc? Also I've heard supply is tight with some products - the bars in particular?




What ever you do with the storage of your pm's just remember the best security is knowledge.  By that I mean keep the fact that you own pm's to yourself as word can get out and you might find yourself the target of some unsavory people who would love to take your pm's.  Just like what happened in this case;

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...m-home-in-gatton/story-e6freon6-1226041362365

As the old saying goes "Loose lips, sink ships", another words keep your bloody mouth shut!!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Dow Theory Letters’ octogenarian Richard  Russell has endorsed the radical gold-bug thesis: The gold market is  manipulated. He says it won’t work — but the ride will be rough.
> 
> .....................
> 
> Russell warns of one possible danger: that “following  the end of QE2 [its second round of quantitative easing], the Fed will  not immediately jump into QE3. This is feasible, and if it happens, gold  could suffer a major correction as the dollar and Treasuries  unexpectedly strengthen.                                                                “Therefore, BEFORE the great gold tsunami we might have a frightening  gold correction that would clean out all the gold skeptics. This ‘clean  out’ may be necessary prior to the big gold tsunami, and it’s a reason  to hold some cash and not put ALL your money into gold at this time.



Story

The Fed is in a bit of a dilemma, having to decide if QE3 is to be delayed or whether they start to take money out of the system, but it's going to be a lot harder than they think.....if indeed possible without major financial system disruptions?

Charles Plosser and the 50% Contraction in the Fed’s Balance Sheet          

Waiting for the dip (1200??), still!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bullion Money said:


> Im sure we can sort out an ASF discount, you didn't mention you were form here when you bought?
> 
> Next time im sure we can work something out.
> 
> Cheers




I'm interested too - please keep us informed if you decide to give a special price for ASF'ers??


----------



## Bullion Money

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm interested too - please keep us informed if you decide to give a special price for ASF'ers??





Were in the process of setting up coupon codes etc so you can use them to reduce the total price of a purchase.

In the meantime just hit me up on email and say your from ASF and we will see what we can do with a total price etc.

Cheers


----------



## nukz

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Dow Theory Letters’ octogenarian Richard Russell has endorsed the radical gold-bug thesis: The gold market is manipulated. He says it won’t work — but the ride will be rough.

.....................

Russell warns of one possible danger: that “following the end of QE2 [its second round of quantitative easing], the Fed will not immediately jump into QE3. This is feasible, and if it happens, gold could suffer a major correction as the dollar and Treasuries unexpectedly strengthen. “Therefore, BEFORE the great gold tsunami we might have a frightening gold correction that would clean out all the gold skeptics. This ‘clean out’ may be necessary prior to the big gold tsunami, and it’s a reason to hold some cash and not put ALL your money into gold at this time. 



But this is assuming the price of gold in USD, if this assumption turns out correct and QE2 ends then the USD strengthens your holding gold priced in AUD. You should probably see that price spike you were looking for like in '09 of 1500 or so whatever it was but this spike i would think could be upwards of 1600-1700 priced in AUD. But this is just a hunch 

Regardless of QE decision the AUD is in need of a correction, i still think the USD will have 1 or 2 more rally's before it collapses.


----------



## qldfrog

Bullion Money said:


> Were in the process of setting up coupon codes etc so you can use them to reduce the total price of a purchase.
> 
> In the meantime just hit me up on email and say your from ASF and we will see what we can do with a total price etc.
> 
> Cheers




also interested and emailled you yesterday, get back in touch with me via email
Cheers


----------



## sinner

bringing you the good stuff

A different sort of chart

Aussies sure love their gold, but the US seems to be ahead on silver.


----------



## sinner

Let's do an experiment:

First, we take a monthly cash gold chart in linear scale. Everyone knows this chart:




Now let's take same chart, except as a log scale. So rather the chart increments being equal in nominal size, they are equal in real percentiles:




As you can see, there is a big difference in how the decade long gold bull market can be viewed. To my mind, when looking at the log chart it doesn't really look like anything except gold following a nice clean simple trendline higher.


----------



## tothemax6

sinner said:


> As you can see, there is a big difference in how the decade long gold bull market can be viewed. To my mind, when looking at the log chart it doesn't really look like anything except gold following a nice clean simple trendline higher.



Nice chart. You should plot some log US money supply figures onto there too, for comparison.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Very quiet in here comrades? Do not be alarmed, but be alert.....

The much anticipated shake-out may have begun? 

Or the counter trade $USD short frenzy may need to be flushed as well?

Either way, I would envisage a plunge in nearly all markets as 'the recovery' looks to have peaked, from the data I look at. Unless of course the Fed announces QE3.....

Waiting, waiting ......




As for silver, who cares?


----------



## Mr Z

I care about silver... she makes me sooooooo much more than gold :blover:


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> I care about silver... she makes me sooooooo much more than gold :blover:




why's that Mr Z, are you short both now, or just silver?


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> why's that Mr Z, are you short both now, or just silver?




Look at an AUD chart of gold and silver, it should be obvious to you.


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> Look at an AUD chart of gold and silver, it should be obvious to you.




sorry Mr Z you'll have to spell it out quite clearly and slowly as I am a bit slow - the % move looks quite a lot bigger to me on the USD decline than it does on the AUD decline.  Or am I missing something?  i.e., you're still long?


----------



## Mr Z

Well you got the slow bit correct. Think about it a little, I'm off for the weekend, bye


----------



## Logique

One for the bulls. 
Nice straight-talking style from Mr Handwerger and provides a common sense chart at the link.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/may062011.html
Sell Offs In Gold and Silver Are Opportunities To Get On Board The Precious Metals Bull Market
By Jeb Handwerger        
May 6 2011
...This is a chart I sent my readers April 22, 2011...
...I believe junior mining stocks (GDXJ) will catch up. Some people are concerned that some of the mining stocks that haven't moved yet should be sold while they're reaching long-term support and basing. I don’t believe so as they all provide leverage to falling currencies and rising demand from emerging economies.


----------



## thembi

Has anyone had a look at the new Gold ETF that hedges currency exposure? Seems like it might be a simple way to access "pure" Gold pricing.

What do others think?


----------



## Bullion Money

Logique said:


> One for the bulls.
> Nice straight-talking style from Mr Handwerger and provides a common sense chart at the link.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/may062011.html
> Sell Offs In Gold and Silver Are Opportunities To Get On Board The Precious Metals Bull Market
> By Jeb Handwerger
> May 6 2011
> ...This is a chart I sent my readers April 22, 2011...
> ...I believe junior mining stocks (GDXJ) will catch up. Some people are concerned that some of the mining stocks that haven't moved yet should be sold while they're reaching long-term support and basing. I don’t believe so as they all provide leverage to falling currencies and rising demand from emerging economies.




Thanks for the share..


----------



## Sean K

sinner said:


> Let's do an experiment:
> 
> First, we take a monthly cash gold chart in linear scale. Everyone knows this chart:
> 
> View attachment 42607
> 
> 
> Now let's take same chart, except as a log scale. So rather the chart increments being equal in nominal size, they are equal in real percentiles:
> 
> View attachment 42608
> 
> 
> As you can see, there is a big difference in how the decade long gold bull market can be viewed. To my mind, when looking at the log chart it doesn't really look like anything except gold following a nice clean simple trendline higher.



Sinner, can you do those in AUD? kennas


----------



## sinner

kennas said:


> Sinner, can you do those in AUD? kennas




No hello sinner how are you mate, not even a please! 

I tried to oblige anyway, but I'm having trouble with my charting capabilities from current location so you are left to fend for yourself in the interim.

Perth Mint provides monthly pricing tables going way back to the late 60s, and this is the data that I was planning on using to fulfill your request.

http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment_invest_in_gold_precious_metal_prices.aspx

It would be extremely difficult to generate a OHLC chart like the ones shown above using that sort of data though.

The best I can offer on an OHLC basis is the pricing of ASX:GOLD since '03 linear and log...
Linear



Log


----------



## Edwood

"Uh-oh, looks like we're going under $30 silver..."


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> View attachment 42886
> 
> 
> "Uh-oh, looks like we're going under $30 silver..."




Its very interesting.  Silver bars on ebay upwards of AU$48 an ounce and the paper price now about AU$31.90

Gunna be a bust up soon.  Glad I hold physical.


----------



## Edwood

explod said:


> Gunna be a bust up soon.  Glad I hold physical.




yes lucky for you Explod 

Paper is perfect for me, this volatility is great!


----------



## TabJockey

explod said:


> Its very interesting.  Silver bars on ebay upwards of AU$48 an ounce and the paper price now about AU$31.90
> 
> Gunna be a bust up soon.  Glad I hold physical.




Glad to hold an asset that was in a bubble and is now dropping like a rock? Easiest technical play I have ever seen Silver at $49.

You are a very one sided investor Explod. More of a crazy precious metal bug than an investor really. But this is an internet forum and you have to expect all sorts dont you?


----------



## TabJockey

Logique said:


> ...I believe junior mining stocks (GDXJ) will catch up. Some people are concerned that some of the mining stocks that haven't moved yet should be sold while they're reaching long-term support and basing. I don’t believe so as they all provide leverage to falling currencies and rising demand from emerging economies.




I believe that junior stocks highly leveraged to commodity prices have had their day. To me it appears there is significant resistance across to the board as investors are unwilling to buy the securities at higher prices. On spot price metrics some stocks may look cheap but most are factoring in more downside risk in commodity prices than upside risk in the near term.

I believe supply demand fundamentals will continue to drive _some_ commodities higher after this technical sell off, but not all, and I do not expect any serious bull markets anytime soon.

The whole European sovereign debt issue is coming to a head and the precious metals are dropping! what does that tell you? It tells me that when good news starts flowing, the mania in precious metals will deintensify.


----------



## explod

TabJockey said:


> Glad to hold an asset that was in a bubble and is now dropping like a rock? Easiest technical play I have ever seen Silver at $49.
> 
> You are a very one sided investor Explod. More of a crazy precious metal bug than an investor really. But this is an internet forum and you have to expect all sorts dont you?




I have been trading hither and thither since 1967, a thing called Exoil was , brought them for 10 cents on the advice of my Farther and sold a couple of yearts later for 90 cents.

I am up on todays price more than 150% on silver since I purchased in 2004.  I am an investor not a short term trader.  You do seem to mouth off a bit like a newbie sometimes but we all have to start somewhere and helping each other in these discussions is the name of the game.

In one day last week there were paper trades in silver comprising more than 12 months world production.   And the price on physical is one thing, but being able to buy and take delivery of physical silver now in any quantity is nearly impossible.  At best I think Perth Mint are saying by late June and have in fact stopped taking orders at all for bars larger than 100oz.

Paper ponzie US dollars and paper ponzi silver contracts are in the death throes now and those wise enough to have been prepared for it will survive.

A litle bit of press to speak up the Greek situation is the same propaganda put up the last time the US dollar looked like falling off a cliff and it has worked again the last few days too.  Of course Moody's are part of the Wall Street ponzie also.  But the days are numbered, remember the story of the boy who cried wolf.

Would be interested in a little more of your take on what constituttes a gold bug is too.


----------



## tothemax6

TabJockey said:


> Glad to hold an asset that was in a bubble and is now dropping like a rock? Easiest technical play I have ever seen Silver at $49.
> 
> You are a very one sided investor Explod. More of a crazy precious metal bug than an investor really. But this is an internet forum and you have to expect all sorts dont you?



Did you take a short position at $49? If so, great call. Trying to short an exponential mania is damn hard - one can never tell the top of a mania.

Can someone explain to me what on earth silver is doing? I just opened up a chart and it went down from under 50 to 35, then cruised back up to just under 40, and just over the last 24hrs it got dumped to under 33.
What in gods name is this stuff?


----------



## qldfrog

another puzzling event today: Newcrest went down heavily yet all my papaer gold went up: PMGOLD, Gold on the ASX;
Newcrest has been following the commodities down the drain yet they are nothing but gold? or do I miss some copper & other significant side products?
Anyone has an explanation?


----------



## skyQuake

qldfrog said:


> another puzzling event today: Newcrest went down heavily yet all my papaer gold went up: PMGOLD, Gold on the ASX;
> Newcrest has been following the commodities down the drain yet they are nothing but gold? or do I miss some copper & other significant side products?
> Anyone has an explanation?




PM gold is very illiquid and not a good indication of spot or futures gold (which fell 1.5% in US trading overnight) and dragged NCM down


----------



## Logique

tothemax6 said:


> ..Can someone explain to me what on earth silver is doing? ...What in gods name is this stuff?



He he, nature of the beast, a volatile little baby. I'm guessing it will find it's way, and settle down to a base somewhere $25 -$35 before striking out again.

And yes a great technical call by TJ. Mind you it was looking parabolic at the time - alarm bells were ringing.


----------



## sinner

My thoughts on gold priced in USD.



1. the breakout of 1430 was a breakout of major daily resistance
2. the most recent flows of money and information have now formed an intermediate daily support 
3. A 45 degree trendline drawn from the major daily support low at 1308 has now been broken as of last nights trading. The inside bar shown should hopefully provide some clues as to where we are off to, in the short term.
4. If intermediate support can't hold, there is still lots of RBS type setups which can play out in the 1430-1450 zone. There is also support to be had at 1410.

My thoughts on gold priced in AUD (using ASX:GOLD as a pricing proxy).


1. the most recent flows of money and information have driven the AUDPOG into a consolidation. A breakout of major daily support or resistance should help give clues where we are going, but regardless, there are plenty of major levels to chew through on either side once we get there. Thus caution is warranted, we aren't trending yet.
2. Viewers are encouraged to fire up the 3 year daily chart to see how these levels fit in nicely with the bigger picture, major daily s/r levels are being formed in *compression* styles thanks largely to the correlated action of AUDUSD and XAUUSD during the last 24 months, sooner or later this will end in a larger breakout corresponding to weekly/monthly charts IMHO.
3. While we are inside the 1397/1335 range, I am counting 1371 as the line in the sand. 

That's it from me.


----------



## DB008

Found this, albiet a few years old. 
I wonder if it really had any substance to it, but if true, scary thought. 


Tungstengold Tungsten Gold Wolframgold Wolfram Bars

 



Fake gold bars! What's next?
http://viewzone2.com/fakegoldx.html


----------



## explod

DB008 said:


> Found this, albiet a few years old.
> I wonder if it really had any substance to it, but if true, scary thought.
> 
> 
> Fake gold bars! What's next?
> http://viewzone2.com/fakegoldx.html




Good one DB008

And quite seperate to your post, I read today that Ron Paul is going to ask the US Congress the same questions, "are the US gold bars fake?"

http://www.gata.org/node/10004

If some real evidence comes to the fore we may see gold go parabolic on just this aspect alone.

And is there perhaps enough noise now coming through that this is no longer just a conspiracy theory.    

Interesting times.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So quiet in here while the Acropolis burns......

I recall that the official US gold inventory level hasn't changed since early 2006 - not by a single ounce!

Very solid performance of gold in the recent 'dip' in the DOW too - usually gold takes a bath with the DOW  but this time has held it's own. Trouble for the 'I owe you nothing' $USD's.......


----------



## explod

> Why own gold and silver?
> The reasons to hold gold and silver, and I mean physical gold and silver, are pretty straightforward. So let’s begin with the primary reasons to own gold.
> 
> 
> To protect against monetary recklessness
> As insulation against fiscal foolishness
> As insurance against the possibility of a major calamity in the banking/financial system
> For the embedded 'option value' that will pay out if and when gold is remonetized




See:-

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/...dication&utm_content=link0&utm_campaign=59850

From my observations we have had the shakeout we had to have with consolidation and survived the bullion bank downramping.

But as the article above points out only physical will protect us from where markets are headed now in my view.   DYOR as I am often wrong.


----------



## explod

Gold is hitting a new all time high and there is no noise.  Interesting.

It has done so against the British Pound and the Euro for some month now so it was only a matter of time against the *World Reserve *currency.

Cheers to gold and silver followers as all the gates seem to be open.


----------



## disarray

just need the aussie dollar to fall over


----------



## explod

disarray said:


> just need the aussie dollar to fall over




It wont fall over in the forseeable future.   Aussie gold is up 8% over the last 12 months but is up more than 400% since Costello presided over the sale of most of our own gold holdings.      

Miners mostly sell into US dollars so good producers are the place to be at this time in my view.

Most see it all as prices going up, however the reality is, currencies/paper money, is losing value across the board.


----------



## disarray

no rush


----------



## explod

disarray said:


> no rush




Dont' know about that.

Aussie gold is up AU$100 so far for July.


----------



## explod

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...he-Gold-Standard-as-world-order-unravels.html

Whew, in the *Daily Telegraph*, gold could be going to $5,000 an ounce and silver to $1,000

Noted a lead article on the uses of silver and its growing scarcity in yesterday"s Australian.

I am on board, if you are not its well worth investigating because I believe the time for the gold bugs has now arrived.

Gold closed against the $US this morning at an all time high of 1594, same against the Euro and the pound with the Ausie not far behind.


----------



## Glen48

Word is $1750 by Xmas .. who needs Santa... Not often a chance like this comes along and with Dr Ben, Timmy et al doing all the wrong things stop the economy tanking and doing all the right things to help PM's rise every one should be on it.


----------



## explod

So gold has claimed US$1600, hey is that a big deal?, *no it is not*

Fiat paper money continues to be printed at exponential rates and gold will go up that way too.  Back to that word exponential in a minute.

I have been closely watching the gold price for 10 years now.  I was so keen that at first I kept a chart going around my office wall, I would draw each candlestick every morning but on my scale after about 4 years it was hitting the ceiling and anyway internet charts had become very good by then.

As time has gone by I recently become aware that all the way through the 12 month percentage rise was always about the same, roughly 30% per year but up or down by about five points.  A month or so back it dropped to about 24%, today it sits at 34%. I look at it most days and can be found at the top left of the Kitco main page. 

To me it does not seem that long ago that we hit the 1,000 mark and here we are today at 1,600.  A 30% rise over the next 12 months translates to about US$2400 and the following year should conservatively see $3,600 on that basis.  There seems to be no fundamental reason on the current economic outlook for this to not continue.

However there are growing signs that the bigger end of town within the investment community are now taking notice and are not wanting to be left behind.  This will increase and the rise will begin to go exponential and is described as the second stage of a bull run.  Then later on we should see as with the dotcom, every tom dick and harry catching the gold fever and we will hit the third and final stages.   We are still a long way from that in my view.

Anyway just my 2 cents


----------



## Bullion Money

explod said:


> So gold has claimed US$1600, hey is that a big deal?, *no it is not*
> 
> Fiat paper money continues to be printed at exponential rates and gold will go up that way too.  Back to that word exponential in a minute.
> 
> I have been closely watching the gold price for 10 years now.  I was so keen that at first I kept a chart going around my office wall, I would draw each candlestick every morning but on my scale after about 4 years it was hitting the ceiling and anyway internet charts had become very good by then.
> 
> As time has gone by I recently become aware that all the way through the 12 month percentage rise was always about the same, roughly 30% per year but up or down by about five points.  A month or so back it dropped to about 24%, today it sits at 34%. I look at it most days and can be found at the top left of the Kitco main page.
> 
> To me it does not seem that long ago that we hit the 1,000 mark and here we are today at 1,600.  A 30% rise over the next 12 months translates to about US$2400 and the following year should conservatively see $3,600 on that basis.  There seems to be no fundamental reason on the current economic outlook for this to not continue.
> 
> However there are growing signs that the bigger end of town within the investment community are now taking notice and are not wanting to be left behind.  This will increase and the rise will begin to go exponential and is described as the second stage of a bull run.  Then later on we should see as with the dotcom, every tom dick and harry catching the gold fever and we will hit the third and final stages.   We are still a long way from that in my view.
> 
> Anyway just my 2 cents





Agree with above. The only difference this time will be the challenge to determine when gold is in a bubble. The fiat price its measured in will not suffice rather than the value of the metal....


Anyone see the front page of the AFR today? and just about every 3rd page something about gold...


----------



## Ageo

Just thought id pop in and say hello 

Explod remember the only counter argument to the increase in money supply/gold going up argument is that never before have refiners around the world bought a massive amount of scrap which has been refined into bullion. Now if jewellery markets were great then no problem because the bullion would be bought/manufactured into new jewellery and so on, but its not the case.

Tonnes of extra scrap is being refined and casted into bars which only leaves private/institutional and central banks to be buying these bars, so unless there is a similiar demand compared to the supply thats flowing in then obviously the price might not shoot up as much as alot of gold bugs think.

Then of course you have the big players who manipulate supply/demand levels (like diamonds) so in the end no 1 really knows where the price is going.


Just some food for thought


----------



## explod

There is a lot to the story of gold and its intrinsic value.   The following recent commentary talks about a Gold Standard.  The subject has been on some lips of late but interestingly Gary North in the following article (follow the link) points out well that that would be playing right into the hands of the Keynesian system, and the bankers and Governments who feed off money expansion to the general detriment of the people; in my view.  A gold standard sounds good after what we have been witnessing, but it still "keeps drakula in charge of the blood bank", so to speak.   


http://lewrockwell.com/north/north1009.html


----------



## explod

Well the gold price break out overnight has certinly told us clearly what the world now thinks of paper money.

With the strong annual seasonal approach ahead of us till the end of the year my take is hold your hats because we are now away with earnest.  This in my view is that second stage where the general investment community will now start to sit up too.

Cheers to holders of physical and gold stocks, the train is fianally off.

And for this little ole black duck, go AYN


----------



## Frank D

*Gold Report update....*

http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com/


----------



## explod

Today marks a sad day for the people of America, "Dan Norcinin"

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

Looking at the five day weekly of the Dow, the up lower line trend has been borken and it looks very like the period around October 2007.

However the traders will play hard with the paper gold chart to profit on the volatility, so no one can predict the medium to short term, but the continuing long term up trend will remain intact till some radical action is taken by the world finance machine to bring us back to some reality.  But I do not really know that answer.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> And for this little ole black duck, go AYN




Remember to sell your shares before they suspend the market though........I'm only in cash & physical now....


----------



## Junior

Uncle Festivus said:


> Remember to sell your shares before they suspend the market though........I'm only in cash & physical now....




Festivus, can you please elaborate.  Which market and why?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Junior said:


> Festivus, can you please elaborate. Which market and why?



 When the general populace finally work out what's going on, and it turns out to be more than just some cyclic sell-off, then it's a posibility that equity markets will take a big(ger)hit - up to the point where the regulators simply suspend all equities trading. So even if you have gold equities they will be useless coz you won't be able to sell them?? Just my view.....


----------



## notting

*Gold Pop*

Interesting Gold move this morning in US trading time.
It peaked hard then went negative!! Big reversal sign.
Don't forget people will sell gold to cover margin calls and get stock bargains.
gold could move fast down 20% after a move like that.
currently 1656.


----------



## skc

*Re: Gold Pop*



notting said:


> Interesting Gold move this morning in US trading time.
> It peaked hard then went negative!! Big reversal sign.
> Don't forget people will sell gold to cover margin calls and get stock bargains.
> gold could move fast down 20% after a move like that.
> currently 1656.




I think gold fell last night because the US dollar was up. It's a race to the bottom and the Japs are starting early. 

Definitely a big reversal sign and gold shouldn't see a new peak for some time. But in this volatile market, "some time" probably means a few hours


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: Gold Pop*



skc said:


> I think gold fell last night because the US dollar was up. It's a race to the bottom and the Japs are starting early.
> 
> Definitely a big reversal sign and gold shouldn't see a new peak for some time. But in this volatile market, "some time" probably means a few hours




Rumours of CME raising gold margins - CME has yet to deny it

Unsubstantiated, but Gold got smashed right after those rumors started floating.


----------



## Dracuu

In my opinion I think there is further downside left on the US Dollar. With stocks droping, Gold as in the past may be seen as a safe haven. From a technical point of view I can see a top forming on the USD and Gold rallying from here. 

However if margins are raised again on Gold then we will no doubt see a momentary drop in price but as in the past this has proven to have little effect over the long term.


----------



## lioness

Can anyone explain to me gold stocks are not heading higher.

In fact most are sideways to negative for the year.

Surely they will catch up in the end as speccy money floods into them.

I bought some early and are still down


----------



## skyQuake

lioness said:


> Can anyone explain to me gold stocks are not heading higher.
> 
> In fact most are sideways to negative for the year.
> 
> Surely they will catch up in the end as speccy money floods into them.
> 
> I bought some early and are still down




Because only today has Gold in aussie dollar terms broken its 2009 highs.


----------



## explod

US gold hitting $1690 up $25 on the open. 

Aussie gold up $30


----------



## Kauri

The weekly Gold chart from 2003 and the more recent daily chart over the last couple of months have been fairly clear about where Gold  *HAS* been headed. Looking further ahead, the chart and patterns will point the way ...  for me anyways. 

Cheers
......... Kauri


----------



## explod

For a further direction in gold watch the US dollar.  I think it is starting its fall now.

If it does overnight, or does not rise in the face of the fear now sweeping the markets, then gold will continue to go parabolic and silver should start to respond soon too.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Welcome back Kauri - is there much TA in a vertical line??

Looking like getting close to the slingshot - rising US price & falling AU/US dollar rate.

Depends if the Fed is still in control ie try to take down gold like it did silver (margins)??

The worst outcome for gold is if there is _just_ a slow, plodding deflationary recession instead of outright $US debasement? That would mean that the general populace would be just too poor to get in on the gold bull and cause stage 3......

Just hitting $1715 now........


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus 
Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
Welcome back Kauri - is there much TA in a vertical line??

Looking like getting close to the slingshot - rising US price & falling AU/US dollar rate.


 Hi Unkle Fess  ..  TA for my first entry was divergence and a *punt* on it co incider ing with the base of triangle, the pyramid was another triangle which is more obvious when viewed in 4 hour timeframe. Have tightened stop as divergence *may* be indicating a   " *temporary ?? top* " and I need some sleep.   

Cheers
....................... Kauri ​


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Kauri,
Yes, it's had a good run, & I'm not seeing too much excitement tonight, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see gold fall away a bit & the PPT boys pull their fingers out if it (the Dow) looks like rolling over again?? Gotta get a green day soon for the poor Lemmings....


----------



## Kauri

Uncle Festivus said:


> Kauri,
> Yes, it's had a good run, & I'm not seeing too much excitement tonight, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see gold fall away a bit & the PPT boys pull their fingers out if it (the Dow) looks like rolling over again?? Gotta get a green day soon for *the poor Lemmings*....




Lemmings, ah yes ... that was from the last major bout of profit taking  now called the GFC  ... racking my addled memory that was my way of saying Lehmans without actually saying it in case I wasn't allowed to say it as it might have been seen as spreading rumours ..  or something  ...  irate:   sometimes I confuse myself.

Cheers
........... Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which last week lost 698 points,   nearly matched that drop in a single session, with Monday marking its  worst day since late 2008.




See, that's what I get from being sorry for them! I think the Fed has lost control. But, gold only went up $20 over the session, topping out at $1720 or so, which is a concern.....getting a bit sticky for everything. Withdrawing some more cash out today.....


----------



## iced earth

*Gold : 9 August 2009*

The shorter channel has been passed up successfully with the target around $1900 which is coincidence with the upper line of the longer channel




in monthly chart, we see a continues upward pattern which form kind of a bullish channel, the most important resistance of this channel is the upper line which gold could reach it around $1900-$2000


----------



## Kauri

Gold on the 4 hourly ... not one I am looking to trade, at the moment anyway. May be a triangle or even morph into a rectangular type of set-up.

 Cheers
....  Kauri


----------



## Mr Z

Correction due? $1650? or so...


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Correction due? $1650? or so...




On what basis or facts do you make that statement?

Interesting


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Gold on the 4 hourly ... not one I am looking to trade, at the moment anyway. May be a triangle or even morph into a rectangular type of set-up.
> 
> Cheers
> .... Kauri



  Gold 4 hourly ............
  A messy one as it turned out but a goodie non the less.

  Cheers
.......  Kauri


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> On what basis or facts do you make that statement?
> 
> Interesting




1. The commercials are well short on a net basis.
2. OI has been contracting since 1600 indicating that we have a short squeeze on. That will run its course.
3. 1800 represents that top of a technical formation on my weekly chart.

There will be a battle for 1800, lots of new short positions will be put on around here, all things being equal that should induce a correction and 1650 looks like the first likely floor to me. 

If this fails to correct here there will be a fast move up as the recent short interest gets taken out. It is a classic setup for the "from failed moves come fast moves" idiom. However until that occurs we have the odds favoring a correction. I would prefer to lose a small amount of heat here, IMO that makes 2K by December more likely.

If we break up look out for a hot move followed by a sharp fall... again not ideal at this point IMO.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> 1. The commercials are well short on a net basis.
> 2. OI has been contracting since 1600 indicating that we have a short squeeze on. That will run its course.
> 3. 1800 represents that top of a technical formation on my weekly chart.
> 
> There will be a battle for 1800, lots of new short positions will be put on around here, all things being equal that should induce a correction and 1650 looks like the first likely floor to me.
> 
> If this fails to correct here there will be a fast move up as the recent short interest gets taken out. It is a classic setup for the "from failed moves come fast moves" idiom. However until that occurs we have the odds favoring a correction. I would prefer to lose a small amount of heat here, IMO that makes 2K by December more likely.
> 
> If we break up look out for a hot move followed by a sharp fall... again not ideal at this point IMO.




Good rationale.  I would not pick any direction at this point myself but you may be correct.  

Benanke's hold on money rates will continue to erode the dollar and as more faith is lost about the only thing they can turn to will be gold, silver, prime land maybe the food industry and a bit of copper. The risk to a lot of that would be a full market and bank meltdown which has to be pondered as a possibility now.  IMHO of course.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> The risk to a lot of that would be a full market and bank meltdown which has to be pondered as a possibility now.




IMO this is not a 2008. The 1 year Libor rate is suggesting that there is very little funding stress here. That is in line with the RBA's recent comments. This appears to be driven by other factors.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> IMO this is not a 2008. The 1 year Libor rate is suggesting that there is very little funding stress here. That is in line with the RBA's recent comments. This appears to be driven by other factors.




2008?  

The increased debt to real value is now very much worse than 2008.  And the RBA in my view merely follow the popular beliefs of Wall Street and Co, as does our Guvmint.

Take note of the statements of these popular press economist and Reserve Bank Chiefs who will talk about next year and the green shoots and all sorts of greater days later on, but you should note they never qualify these statements with, *why* and *how* they will, or what will, bring this about.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> 2008?
> 
> The increased debt to real value is now very much worse than 2008.  And the RBA in my view merely follow the popular beliefs of Wall Street and Co, as does our Guvmint.
> 
> Take note of the statements of these popular press economist and Reserve Bank Chiefs who will talk about next year and the green shoots and all sorts of greater days later on, but you should note they never qualify these statements with, *why* and *how* they will, or what will, bring this about.




SO WHAT? 

This is not a 2008, this is not a credit crunch driven market.


----------



## skyQuake

Looking weak so far with the intraday reversal. 
CME raised gold margins so there will be some decent selling tonight


----------



## adamim1

By December Gold should be somewhere between 1800-2000. Its moving very fast and we are still in the historically slow period for gold.

I know David Morgan is recommending (in regards to silver, but also relevant to gold) to make a buy on the 15th of August to positions one self for the yearly rally in September. I'll be taking this advice unless something drastic happens between now and then. But I would expect some pull back before September rally


----------



## Mr Z

IF we see 1650 I would expect strong buying around those levels, from 1670 down really.


----------



## Mr Z

Nice strength out of the lows today. This could just become a high level consolidation! Are we building a 'bonfire of the shorts' ? Could be fun!


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> SO WHAT?
> 
> This is not a 2008, this is not a credit crunch driven market.




I cannot believe you said that Z. 

*It is all credit* and has been for decades.

People down my way cannot fathom why big vacant blocks of land are selling like hot cakes.  The same as for the gold price, land will preserve wealth.  Money is nothing but credit and as Robert Kyosaki repeats, "cash it trash"


----------



## notting

> "cash it trash"



Yes but you can use it to blow your nose with, or wipe your mouth after a big feed!


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> I cannot believe you said that Z.
> 
> *It is all credit* and has been for decades.
> 
> People down my way cannot fathom why big vacant blocks of land are selling like hot cakes.  The same as for the gold price, land will preserve wealth.  Money is nothing but credit and as Robert Kyosaki repeats, "cash it trash"




Kyosaki is a real estate guy who walked into the RE crash in the US and has only just recently worked out the value of PM's, he is no one to quote as any sort of expert, he is about five years behind the curve!!!! 

The fact is that this market correction/event is not being driven by the same forces that drove 2008. I did predict 2008 and harped on publicly about the MASSIVE carry trade risk from around 2005 so YES I do get it BUT that is not what is going on here, at least not yet. When the risk lay in the sovereign area and related parts of the private system the destination for capital seeking protection will be very different to 2008. In 2008 we saw a liquidity drain from private to sovereign ("flight to safety" ??!!) in a market that contained massive leverage. Today that dynamic has altered... yes it is all credit BUT who's credit? Expecting a simple repeat of 2008 shows that no attempt has been made to understand the current situation. This is a market that is in transition and is moving away from sovereigns to the stronger parts of the private sector, many companies today have strong earnings, sound balance sheets, money in the bank and pricing power in an inflationary environment. Trashing them "because it is all about credit" is just mindlessly panicking.

This is not a 2008, this is possibly around mid transition in the broader investment mindset. IMO we will have more of these panics and they are opportunities IF you understand what the right thing to buy is!  

You are over simplifying it!

As for vacant land selling like hot cakes on the Mornington Peninsula  OH man, what can I say?.... in what is still effectively a private credit bubble in Australia... LOL "Dead men walking" is all I can say! Go where the leverage has been shaken out not where it still exists!


----------



## explod

> Mr Z;651755]Kyosaki is a real estate guy who walked into the RE crash in the US and has only just recently worked out the value of PM's, he is no one to quote as any sort of expert, he is about five years behind the curve!!!!




We do not have to be experts to see where paper money is going.  Rivkin who was a crook and went to gaol said  "Sell in boom and buy in Gloom"  merely cliches that can be expressed to say how it is.   However for newcomers flaying around for some simple introductions to the concepts of finance he is usefull and has been for my Grandkids.  Like the carbon tax, its got a lot of problems and will have to be changed, but at least it is a start.



> The fact is that this market correction/event is not being driven by the same forces that drove 2008. I did predict 2008 and harped on publicly about the MASSIVE carry trade risk from around 2005 so YES I do get it BUT that is not what is going on here, at least not yet.




Yes you are very good. 

Who can succinctly encompass what defines this turn?  And I welcome a clearer explanation.



> When the risk lay in the sovereign area and related parts of the private system the destination for capital seeking protection will be very different to 2008. In 2008 we saw a liquidity drain from private to sovereign ("flight to safety" ??!!) in a market that contained massive leverage. Today that dynamic has altered... yes it is all credit BUT who's credit? Expecting a simple repeat of 2008 shows that no attempt has been made to understand the current situation. This is a market that is in transition and is moving away from sovereigns to the stronger parts of the private sector, many companies today have strong earnings, sound balance sheets, money in the bank and pricing power in an inflationary environment. Trashing them "because it is all about credit" is just mindlessly panicking.




It is was the collapse of a lot of private sector that required the public sector to prop which set the scene for a lot (not all) of what is now occuring in my view





> This is not a 2008, this is possibly around mid transition in the broader investment mindset. IMO we will have more of these panics and they are opportunities IF you understand what the right thing to buy is!
> 
> You are over simplifying it!




I am not interested in trading opportunities but in what is happening to the capitalist system and the debauching of the wealth and earnings of ordinary people.  And personaly I do know what to be in for for my own protection but  not my concern in this discussion




> As for vacant land selling like hot cakes on the Mornington Peninsula  OH man, what can I say?.... in what is still effectively a private credit bubble in Australia... LOL "Dead men walking" is all I can say! Go where the leverage has been shaken out not where it still exists!




Bubble coming or not, good (and I mean from wealthy money) landbanking is taking place in special areas.  Martha Cove for example, built round a great harbour will soon be serviced by a new freeway opening up to make Melbourne City only 30 minutes away.

And I do believe that cash will be trash and that those sitting on full freehold of tangibles will ride anything out in the long term.

On gold and the Dow, it is worth noting on the 15 year chart we have two dips and the beginning of a third.  A slight forrunner occured in late 1998 when gold was at its very bottom, the first dip was in 01/02 when gold awoke from its sleep. (the dot.com) the second we know well (because we all sat up that time), played out in 08/09 when gold dipped down but has not looked back since.  However the Dow has only recovered 60% and languishing 2,500 points below that previous high.  In point of fact the larger view of the Dow shows that it has been moving sideways since 1998 whilst gold has risen some 600%.

We all in my view have out differing takes and sure this dust off may be driven differently but overall things are looking pretty sick in my view and there seems to be no solid solutions being put forward, just statements like "it will be much improved in 2013" without *one word *of qualification.

Anyway just my  too.


----------



## Mr Z

Martha Cove has already hit the wall once hasn't it ?  I'm not into marine ghettos, leave them in QLD for my money. Take a drive around it, it is not hard to spot the projects that have run out of money! At least is wasn't hard the last time I took a look.

2008 was not about the collapse of the private sector, it was about a government induced credit bubble collapsing. The private sector was largely a victim of the fallout. Now we have the safe haven sovereigns, that where the destination for capital in that event, coming under a cloud. On top of that the setup is very different, liquidity in the system is not the current problem here. As I said things like the Libor rate tell you that much!

No I am not very good, I pay very good money for advice from people who are very good. 

We don't have a 'capitalist system', that is a large part of the issue here. To call what we have capitalism is to misunderstand what capitalism is. We have a government problem, it is all about the money supply and how it is controlled in the end.

Bubble coming? Domestic real estate in Australia is in a fully mature bubble. There is no coming about it, this is not the right point in the cycle to get into anything domestic.

Tangibles yes BUT not tangibles that are priced on very extended credit, domestic RE fails on this point.

Gold bottomed August 1999 from memory.

The DOW is an index? Since when do you buy the entire index? The stock portfolio that I own is near double its 2007 highs. You can't work out what is going on with the *RIGHT* companies from the DOW. Again a gross over simplification!

IMO 2013 will be a very dangerous year... but that is all I am saying on that.

Anyway... again... I say that this is not "a 2008"! This is a different setup and the outcome will be different. Why you have taken umbrage with that I cannot understand!


----------



## joea

Gold 100 oz.
$2000 has been mention by experts!!!!!


----------



## Kauri

Gold on the 60 mins ...  Is it on the verge of an ABC ??

   Cheers
 ............. Kauri


----------



## Mr Z

This is looking like a high level consolidation, so far it has been surprisingly strong given other indications. I am starting to doubt that a full correction will play out. Odds now seem to me that we have seen it --> very bullish so far. Up over 1800 again and it would seem to be over for the bears. Yes, 2K this year I would say, 2+ in the New Year but beware any hot moves in the New Year.


----------



## explod

I know everyone is frantically busy with other things but golds up a bit more today.

Fairly predictable really.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I recall when gold was about $1400 it was noted that 'some large player' had taken out a large position with $1800 calls - well his/her play came true last week....

Of interest is that there are now more large 'players' taking big bets with Dec 2011 $3000 calls, even Dec 2012 calls @ $5000.....

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez nationalized the country’s gold mines Wednesday....



> Chavez is repatriating much of Venezuela’s gold held overseas, about $11 billion worth.
> The Bank of England, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Standard Chartered, the Bank of Nova Scotia, all of them recently got a request from Chavez asking that the gold he has stored with them be shipped home.
> 
> “We’ve held 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England since 1980,” declared Chavez. “It’s a healthy decision” to bring it back.




That's if the BOE even has that much gold after Brown sold most of it way back at the bottom.....

And so, we have some economists who ponder why gold is surging, even contemplating the idea that gold may in fact be an alternative currency, and not a hedge against inflation anymore - a little late to the party....

Meanwhile, the equity markets have just blown the $600B or so in QE2 money ie back to where they were this time last year....

But still gold is still not at an inflation adjusted record high - not this week anyway....


----------



## skcots

Interesting. I wonder what exactly are Chavez's motives.


----------



## disarray

skcots said:


> Interesting. I wonder what exactly are Chavez's motives.




he's an anti-imperialist socialist whackjob. i like the guy


----------



## lioness

When will gold stocks take off?

Very disappointing so far.


----------



## explod

lioness said:


> When will gold stocks take off?
> 
> Very disappointing so far.




It is a considerable story and it is worth doing a bit of research to understand.

Gold and silver are part of an entire industry.  We have producers, investors, bullion bankers and paper traders to name a few.  They all have to some degree and interest in quite varied ways.

I think most will accept now that gold and silver prices have also been cotrolled to a great degree.

On stocks you will find for example JPMorgan will hold a fairly large percentage of many gold stocks.  Other bullion banks will be involved in other gold stocks and so on.  These companies or banks are paper traders in the metals going both on the long side at times and on the short side.   Of late gold and silver have firmed up a great deal and a lot of the dealings being done on borrowed money is causing the shorts to get margin calls and to meet them they are selling pm. shares and so on.  Other  holders then lose nerve and you will find the bigger blokes, having a good idea before the rank and file when metals prices are to rise buy back in again.

I am sure others can explain things clearer with many other facits and examples, mine is  just a rough take.   However I have followed it long enough to know that the best exposure is to hold the physical metal itself and trade the pm. stocks only at strateigic times.   Today gold and silver stocks tended to hold their own whilst most of the rest of the market fell, so that in itself is not too bad.  A look at the Newcrest chart (ASX NCM) for the last three years shows a rise of about 60% which should be considered as pretty good in my view.


----------



## Sdajii

Any time there are masses of people all getting excited about something, all so sure that it is brilliant, and its price far far exceeds its intrinsic value, the bubble bursts in the end and everyone in retrospect says "Oh, duh! That was so obvious!"

There are so many truisms which come to mind...

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" and all that kind of stuff. Has there ever been a greater case of gold fever in modern times than right now? (I'm actually not sure, maybe there has...)

The whole world seems to be gripped by gold fever. I considered jumping in and riding the bubble before it burst... hey, just imagine how much you could have made on the dot com bubble as long as you got out before it popped... but whether or not the gold bubble bursts soon, I can't see it inflating massively higher than where it is now. I can't see gold getting to anything like $5,000, and being an obvious bubble, why buy in if it's not going to?

I'm sure the gold bugs will hate what I'm saying. Haters welcome


----------



## Billyb

lioness said:


> When will gold stocks take off?
> 
> Very disappointing so far.




People investing in gold right now are there because they want to get away from unstable markets such as stocks, including gold stocks. So I wouldn't expect them to take off anytime too soon. Wait until the the fear subsides, which is about the time when physical gold prices will start to drop - then you will see the price of gold stocks go up. IMO. This seems to be what happened in the last gold bull market.


Sdajii said:


> but whether or not the gold bubble bursts soon, I can't see it inflating massively higher than where it is now. I can't see gold getting to anything like $5,000, and being an obvious bubble, why buy in if it's not going to?




It can go up more, and chances are it will. People have been claiming the gold bubble story from years back. Those people would have been better holding gold all that time.
I wouldn't be confident enough for it to hit $5000, however IMO Gold is currently one of the few LOW-risk long-term investments right now. Reason being because gold has consistently shown over history that it goes up when people are fearful. Right now there's a lot of things for people to be fearful about. I don't see any reason for that to change anytime soon, considering the state of affairs in the US and Euro.


----------



## aclassic

A question for you gents please.

If you had say 19k in a short term deposit at 5.5% and you thought that you would do better in gold for 4 to max 12 months, what form of investment would you go with?

I.E. :

Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP)
Perth Mint Depository Program (PMDP)
or on the ASX - Perth Mint Gold Quoted Product (PMG)  PMGOLD.

If none of above, any hints? 

Kind Regards.


----------



## explod

aclassic said:


> A question for you gents please.
> 
> If you had say 19k in a short term deposit at 5.5% and you thought that you would do better in gold for 4 to max 12 months, what form of investment would you go with?
> 
> I.E. :
> 
> Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP)
> Perth Mint Depository Program (PMDP)
> or on the ASX - Perth Mint Gold Quoted Product (PMG)  PMGOLD.
> 
> If none of above, any hints?
> 
> Kind Regards.




If it was me I would only accept physical gold and put it in my own bank vault.

And that is what I have done from 2004.  However a couple of years back I sold my gold and increased my silver holdings as the evidence suggested to me that the gold silver ratio will revert back to its histoiric mean average which is 15 to 1.  Currently it sits at about 40 to 1.

On paper holdings there are suggestions that there is not full physical backing against certificates issued.

Worth you doing your own reading up on these issues before embarking.


----------



## Mr Z

If you think that gold is in a bubble here you clearly have no idea what a bubble is. A bubble is not just a rising price  

You know I have had people telling me we are in a gold bubble since we cracked $300 ! :


----------



## Mr Z

aclassic said:


> A question for you gents please.
> 
> If you had say 19k in a short term deposit at 5.5% and you thought that you would do better in gold for 4 to max 12 months, what form of investment would you go with?
> 
> I.E. :
> 
> Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP)
> Perth Mint Depository Program (PMDP)
> or on the ASX - Perth Mint Gold Quoted Product (PMG)  PMGOLD.
> 
> If none of above, any hints?
> 
> Kind Regards.




If you are restricted to a time limit I would not play with PM's, it can be volatile and you must be patient.

As far as Perth Mint goes I have dealt with them for close to two decades, they are fine, they have the metal, don't get sucked in by the US based CRAP that is written about them especially by con men like Hommel.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> If you think that gold is in a bubble here you clearly have no idea what a bubble is. A bubble is not just a rising price
> 
> You know I have had people telling me we are in a gold bubble since we cracked $300 ! :




Well they say Property is in a bubble and since 2000 it has gone from 218 to 450. Gold has gone from 300 to 1800 now to me, that may mean it is on the high side.

Gold was in a bubble in the late 70's, and it took 30years to claw back to that level.

What do you make of this chart, Do you think now is the best time to buy into this asset, or could their be better assets that are currently on sale.


----------



## Sdajii

Mr Z said:


> If you think that gold is in a bubble here you clearly have no idea what a bubble is. A bubble is not just a rising price




It's true that a bubble is not just a rising price. It's when everyone gets into an irrational frenzy and price of something far beyond its actual value. Does gold fit this? Perfectly. In any bubble there are people saying "Don't be silly, this is not a bubble!" and of course, attitudes like yours are essential for a bubble to exist.

Look at TysonBoss' chart. Keeping in mind that gold is still just gold, the same old element it ever was, and pretty much all we do with gold is store it in warehouses and sometimes wear it as trinkets (and sometimes actually use a tiny little amount in electronics etc, where its actual value is a tiny percentage of what you have to pay for it)... does that sound like a bubble? You can't eat it, you can't burn it, you can't build roads or buildings or cars out of it (without being stupid)... and you're telling me I'm silly for calling it a bubble? The more a bubble inflates the bigger the inevitable pop. It's so inflated now it's hard to imagine it inflating too much more. It can't go up by several more times now. Just wait until decent numbers of people try to sell it to buy things which actually are useful... it's going to be spectacular(ly ugly).


----------



## RandR

Sdajii said:


> It's true that a bubble is not just a rising price. It's when everyone gets into an irrational frenzy and price of something far beyond its actual value. Does gold fit this? Perfectly. In any bubble there are people saying "Don't be silly, this is not a bubble!" and of course, attitudes like yours are essential for a bubble to exist.
> 
> Look at TysonBoss' chart. Keeping in mind that gold is still just gold, the same old element it ever was, and pretty much all we do with gold is store it in warehouses and sometimes wear it as trinkets (and sometimes actually use a tiny little amount in electronics etc, where its actual value is a tiny percentage of what you have to pay for it)... does that sound like a bubble? You can't eat it, you can't burn it, you can't build roads or buildings or cars out of it (without being stupid)... and you're telling me I'm silly for calling it a bubble? The more a bubble inflates the bigger the inevitable pop. It's so inflated now it's hard to imagine it inflating too much more. It can't go up by several more times now. Just wait until decent numbers of people try to sell it to buy things which actually are useful... it's going to be spectacular(ly ugly).




The thing that scares me about physical gold atm, is the simple truth that in order for all of the retail investors to realise there profits, they HAVE TO SELL. Once you see that trend falter, or start to sway a little backwards, the rush to the exit will be monumental, as everyone rushes to realise profits/avoid the exit rush.

Personally, at the moment I feel i'd rather make a coin on the inevitable bust then speculate on the gold price increasing ever more.

Im going through the process of looking at the best ASX gold producers to use long put options against.


----------



## Tysonboss1

RandR said:


> The thing that scares me about physical gold atm, is the simple truth that in order for all of the retail investors to realise there profits, they HAVE TO SELL. Once you see that trend falter, or start to sway a little backwards, the rush to the exit will be monumental, as everyone rushes to realise profits/avoid the exit rush.
> 
> Personally, at the moment I feel i'd rather make a coin on the inevitable bust then speculate on the gold price increasing ever more.
> 
> Im going through the process of looking at the best ASX gold producers to use long put options against.




So very true, It's not like owning a business or a piece of real estate or even a piece of farm land where actual value is generated year in year out and income is thrown off which feeds you, 

Gold must be sold to realise it's value, When ( not if ) it pops it will be a rush to the door like no one has seen.

At the moment round the world people exiting the real wealth of this world ie. real esate, farmland, mining assets and business and entering the "safe haven" of gold. Once the storm clouds pass, which they always do, people will want income producing assets again and leave gold in droves.

I own farmland, realestate, mining assets and businesses and yes, the quoted market value is a little less now, But there is no way I am swaping them for a shiny metal, especially at current prices.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Sdajii said:


> It's so inflated now it's hard to imagine it inflating too much more. It can't go up by several more times now. Just wait until decent numbers of people try to sell it to buy things which actually are useful... it's going to be spectacular(ly ugly).






Tysonboss1 said:


> So very true, It's not like owning a business or a piece of real estate or even a piece of farm land where actual value is generated year in year out and income is thrown off which feeds you,
> 
> Gold must be sold to realise it's value, When ( not if ) it pops it will be a rush to the door like no one has seen.
> 
> At the moment round the world people exiting the real wealth of this world ie. real esate, farmland, mining assets and business and entering the "safe haven" of gold. Once the storm clouds pass, which they always do, people will want income producing assets again and leave gold in droves.
> 
> I own farmland, realestate, mining assets and businesses and yes, the quoted market value is a little less now, But there is no way I am swaping them for a shiny metal, especially at current prices.




[Shakes head in amazement ]

What needs to be done is some basic research on why gold has any perceived 'value' at all, then maybe revisit the bubble hypothesis?

Yes, it's true that the price of gold is relatively high, that is, if you are measuring it's price point against other things that you deem to have 'value' ie your other 'assets'. What you haven't accounted for is that gold is now well & truly a currency, perhaps the only real currency left in the world. So if you need to start exchanging your paper money, which is being debased daily, for something that only needs to hold it's value - it doesn't need to pay an income - then you are still way ahead of the pack, who are still holding bits' of paper or plastic IOU's from central banks who just happen to keep printing/creating more of the stuff ie fiat is not as scarce as gold. 

Which is the reason why gold is rising - on a relative basis it is not being created as fast as fiat?? Or, gold is not being debased (mined) as fast as fiat is created, or more to the point, as fast as the value of your existing money is being destroyed....

So you will have to factor in the continued debasement of the fiat money in your pocket until nobody is willing to exchange it for anything of 'value', at which point the system has failed. 

The usual financial paradigms that you are used to will be blown away soon, if they havn't been already? Like this bit - 

"Once the storm clouds pass, which they always do, people will want income producing assets again and leave gold in droves."

What if they don't? Who is going to make the storm clounds pass? Ben Bernake?? Bernanke just indicated that interest rates will be negative for the next 2 years because his QE's have failed, and they are fast approaching a double dip recession, only all their ammo has been spent!

The US has just passed the point where debt to GDP ratio indicates that they will struggle/fail to pay their debts without continuing to draw down their national savings ie plunder their retirement savings accounts. Not to mention some $200TRILLION in future liabilities! All compounded by polititians who only worry about the next election & unwilling to take the drastic measures needed to fix the problems, if they are fixable at all?

That's not to say that there won't be dramatic sell-offs, maybe soon if they (the market regulators) go marginless, but untill 'they' fix all the problems with global debt etc it a matter of 'buy the ** dips'!

You aint seen nothing yet............

As for Buffett - nothing more than a cheer leader for the Fed's loose money debasement policies, who will be left holding a portfolio of dramatically worthless shares in companies reliant on the credit addicted US consumer, who is bankrupt......


----------



## RandR

Uncle Festivus said:


> [Shakes head in amazement ]
> 
> What needs to be done is some basic research on why gold has any perceived 'value' at all, then maybe revisit the bubble hypothesis?




It has perceived value because we as humans 'like it'. For a long time in human history it was used as a currency.

But gold will only ever be an 'end of days' currency going forward imo ... in which case, you can store your gold ... i'll keep my rifle  



> Yes, it's true that the price of gold is relatively high, that is, if you are measuring it's price point against other things that you deem to have 'value' ie your other 'assets'. What you haven't accounted for is that gold is now well & truly a currency, perhaps the only real currency left in the world. So if you need to start exchanging your paper money, which is being debased daily, for something that only needs to hold it's value - it doesn't need to pay an income - then you are still way ahead of the pack, who are still holding bits' of paper or plastic IOU's from central banks who just happen to keep printing/creating more of the stuff ie fiat is not as scarce as gold.




No ... Id argure your not ahead of the pack, because all you have is UNREALISED profits ... which you need to take in those 'bits of paper'. The only way you will ever make money from gold is by selling it, failing to do so before the trend reverses will be catastrophic for a lot of people. Its taken a couple of years now to get to 1800. I think the retraction will take weeks, if not days.


> Which is the reason why gold is rising - on a relative basis it is not being created as fast as fiat?? Or, gold is not being debased (mined) as fast as fiat is created, or more to the point, as fast as the value of your existing money is being destroyed....
> 
> So you will have to factor in the continued debasement of the fiat money in your pocket until nobody is willing to exchange it for anything of 'value', at which point the system has failed.




In Australia, on a percentage basis, we'd have to be pretty close to creating more gold here then the percentage increase in our Aussie money supply ? Especially once the federal budget is balanced. (disclaimer:I could be wrong on this, please correct me if so)





> That's not to say that there won't be dramatic sell-offs, maybe soon if they (the market regulators) go marginless, but untill 'they' fix all the problems with global debt etc it a matter of 'buy the ** dips'!




I think your correct Uncle, in the current environment gold could well go higher. How much higher ? 20% ? 50 % 100 % 200% ? Who knows ? ... I dont know, so im not going to bank on it. 

I think Id be better getting ready to leverage myself on the INEVITABLE bust. Put options on a high cost gold producer could do that. Why would I buy physical in the hope it might turn up 100%, when I could use options to leverage myself, on to something (a producer) that is leveraging itself of the price of gold. If gotten right the result *could turn out * (im emphasising the 'could')to be the biggest payday of my life, If wrong ... I lose some premium $$$.


----------



## Mr Z

Same old same old since $300...  we have a LONG way to go! Just do the research and you *may* get your head around it. Gold is easily going to $5700 and will more than likely double that number in time. It will be volatile that is for sure but it will get there.

This reminds me over the "will never ever get to $1000" discussion I had around these parts years ago!

Buying puts on gold stock now is a certain loser, if they where over valued then yes I'd agree but they are at very very low valuations in relation to gold at this point.

Betting on a bust now is just mad if you know anything about gold, try waiting until we crack 2K and we are into the New Year. Sell rhino horns then... short gold stocks then... but turn buyer in the US summer.


----------



## Mr Z

Sdajii said:


> It's true that a bubble is not just a rising price. It's when everyone gets into an irrational frenzy and price of something far beyond its actual value. Does gold fit this? Perfectly. In any bubble there are people saying "Don't be silly, this is not a bubble!" and of course, attitudes like yours are essential for a bubble to exist.




Nope... that is not the definition of a bubble. It may be a symptom but that is about it. You need to rethink that one! Bubbles have a certain dynamic that gets well out of control.

"Gold is far beyond its actual value"... and you know this how? You are just guessing because you don't really understand why gold has value at all. (Am I right? 

Hmmmm... I have been saying gold is not a bubble since POG $300. So what has that proven! In any bull market there are those that have been right 

You know it is funny how often the press call oil and gold bubbles yet they RARELY call true bubbles by that name, saving hindsight.

Look at what is happening in this world and it is very easy to understand why big smart money is heading to gold.

Bye now.


----------



## aclassic

Thanks very much explod and Mr Z.

Your caution re not holding the physical gold is noted.

I do wonder if the cost for transportation at the beginning and end, holding cost etc will make the exercise worthwhile as I am more driven by short-ish term gain rather than doubting NAB's security with my term deposit cash.

I remember missing the opportunity I saw when Commbank shares were $27 and I couldn't take advantage of it and it seems like this is one of those times as far as gold goes.

regards.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Your comparing today's gold price to missing out on Cba shares. But gold is at an all time high. So it's actually like missing out on buying cba for $60.00. 

Look at the xao chart over the last 40 years and compare it to the gold chart. 

You'll see 2007 was not a good time to buy Cba shares and 2011 is probably not a good time to buy gold.


----------



## Mr Z

aclassic said:


> Thanks very much explod and Mr Z.
> 
> Your caution re not holding the physical gold is noted.
> 
> I do wonder if the cost for transportation at the beginning and end, holding cost etc will make the exercise worthwhile as I am more driven by short-ish term gain rather than doubting NAB's security with my term deposit cash.
> 
> I remember missing the opportunity I saw when Commbank shares were $27 and I couldn't take advantage of it and it seems like this is one of those times as far as gold goes.
> 
> regards.




Given the undervaluation of gold stocks here you may well be better off in a good low cost producer. Provided you are willing to monitor the position.

Comparing gold to CBA @ $60 is presupposing this is the top for some years to come, that is very unlikely.


----------



## awg

Uncle Festivus said:


> [Shakes head in amazement ]
> 
> What needs to be done is some basic research on why gold has any perceived 'value' at all, then maybe revisit the bubble hypothesis?
> 
> Like this bit -
> 
> "Once the storm clouds pass, which they always do, people will want income producing assets again and leave gold in droves."
> 
> What if they don't? Who is going to make the storm clounds pass? Ben Bernake?? Bernanke just indicated that interest rates will be negative for the next 2 years because his QE's have failed, and they are fast approaching a double dip recession, only all their ammo has been spent!
> 
> The US has just passed the point where debt to GDP ratio indicates that they will struggle/fail to pay their debts without continuing to draw down their national savings ie plunder their retirement savings accounts. Not to mention some $200TRILLION in future liabilities! All compounded by polititians who only worry about the next election & unwilling to take the drastic measures needed to fix the problems, if they are fixable at all?
> 
> That's not to say that there won't be dramatic sell-offs, maybe soon if they (the market regulators) go marginless, but untill 'they' fix all the problems with global debt etc it a matter of 'buy the ** dips'!
> 
> You aint seen nothing yet............
> 
> As for Buffett - nothing more than a cheer leader for the Fed's loose money debasement policies, who will be left holding a portfolio of dramatically worthless shares in companies reliant on the credit addicted US consumer, who is bankrupt......




Hi Uncle Festivus.

I share your view that the storm clouds look ugly.

I have a question if you dont mind, as I respect your interest in this area.

Could you please offer your thoughts what prospect you see for gold price to be somehow/partially integrated into an international settlement currency, and how might that work in practice?

Now I know that this would be totally resisted by most every governmental authority, and would only be considered in the event of a major inter-currency collapse.

Anyone else feel free to contribute 

I hold physical gold, (but majority in gold shares, with mixed results atm)


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> Comparing gold to CBA @ $60 is presupposing this is the top for some years to come, that is very unlikely.




All bull markets end badly,

Gold is no different, it is being driven higher by fear and greed combined, eventually fear will subside and the greedy with realize the gains are reversing and they will bail. 

But please go ahead and explain why it is different this time. 

People say gold is money, but today at the shops they were only accepting Australian dollars, funny that. 

And guess what, feel free to load up on the shiny stuff. If it did end up being the currency, I have no need to hoard it now, I will just collect as payment from my businesses and real estate.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> But please go ahead and explain why it is different this time.




LOL... It is not... it will end, in around five to ten years *IF* they address the fundamental issues driving gold.

Read up on financial repression and consider its impact. When the penny drops you will work out why your "income" needs insurance.

You are being more than a little premature in even considering this as a near top.

I love you guys... its always an all or nothing deal! Real Estate heads etc are as bad as the gold bugs 

BTW... You are confusing money and currency... shops only taking AUD... LOL!!! Gold is money, gold is the only money that is no one else's liability, gold is money because human nature is what it is. There enduth the lesson


----------



## Mr Z

awg said:


> Could you please offer your thoughts what prospect you see for gold price to be somehow/partially integrated into an international settlement currency, and how might that work in practice?




Gold does not mesh well with our credit system, it introduces a deflationary bias that would make it an unsustainable choice. It may be used at some point to help stabilize a bad situation and introduce an element of confidence where it has been lost but it would have to be abandoned after a time. Personally I will be surprised if it becomes a commonly used currency (or backs one) again & if it does I cannot see it lasting all that long. The Swiss are reportedly discussing it but we'll see.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> All bull markets end badly,
> 
> Gold is no different, it is being driven higher by fear and greed combined, eventually fear will subside and the greedy with realize the gains are reversing and they will bail.




Yes, and this will occur as small pullbacks until the OVERALL FEAR subsides. Then, when things stabilise, obviously people will sell out of gold and go to riskier assets - that's when the so called gold bubble will pop.
But remember - Gold has shown consistently throughout history that it goes up in value when people are fearful. It's a hedge against fear. Go back and look at past gold prices, it always goes up when people are scared. I reckon people are going to be worried about the economy for at least a few more years - so the conclusion for me is that gold prices will go up during this period.

With regard to the gold/currency argument - I read somewhere an interesting point: for thousands of years gold has been our currency (or backing a currency), it's only in the last 40 or so years that we've started experimenting with this thing called paper money. And so far it's been a disaster of an experiment. So what's the likelyhood we'll go back to the gold standard sometime?


----------



## aclassic

Tysonboss1 said:


> Your comparing today's gold price to missing out on Cba shares. But gold is at an all time high. So it's actually like missing out on buying cba for $60.00.
> 
> Look at the xao chart over the last 40 years and compare it to the gold chart.
> 
> You'll see 2007 was not a good time to buy Cba shares and 2011 is probably not a good time to buy gold.




Thanks Tysonboss1,

In 2007 gfc, cba plummetted and I rightly thought it would only be a short term thing.

Would have doubled our money if x had have agreed.

I take and understand your point but I think that in these times we are in now the gold price has some way to go for the short term at the very least.

As a complete stranger to gold investment, I really only need to decide on the best form of gold related investment with the least security risk and least costs for a period of up to say 12 months.

I am just a little wary of miners and exploration companies as I have been acquainted with prospector/miners and an explorer - and I have been told and seen some of the tricks they use to lure investors regarding likelyhood of production, richness of prospects, enviornmental reports etc etc.

Mining company' and most other stocks confuse me (easily done) as their share value doesn't always rationally follow seemingly relevant stimuli or forces. Also, I don't know who will fall over as an indirect result of the current situation.
regards.


----------



## awg

Tysonboss1 said:


> All bull markets end badly,




Well we saw a bull market in cheap debt, and that is playing out.

How can US debt be dealt with, there is not many viable options?

If paper backed assets are debased via any mechanism, then imo its more likely to see gold rise, although corrections and even crashes are probable.

As to all bull markets ending badly, check out the bubble in human population growth chart.


----------



## Tysonboss1

aclassic said:


> As a complete stranger to gold investment, I really only need to decide on the best form of gold related investment with the least security risk and least costs for a period of up to say 12 months.




Sorry, I just have to pull you up their.

The word speculation should be used inplace of investment.

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."[


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> Sorry, I just have to pull you up their.
> 
> The word speculation should be used inplace of investment.
> 
> "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."[




No 'investment' alive today promises safety of principle, or an adequate return. Not even a term deposit or US treasury bond. Don't kid yourself! There is always some degree of speculation, at this point in time gold is being driven upwards by speculation but just about every risky investment goes through times like this.


----------



## explod

Billyb said:


> No 'investment' alive today promises safety of principle, or an adequate return. Not even a term deposit or US treasury bond. Don't kid yourself! There is always some degree of speculation, at this point in time gold is being driven upwards by speculation but just about every risky investment goes through times like this.




Do you consider physical gold to be risky?


----------



## aclassic

> Sorry, I just have to pull you up their.
> 
> The word speculation should be used inplace of investment.
> 
> "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."[




Hey I can't argue with you on that Tysonboss1.  Wrong terminology - I am definately speculating.

Except for this next year, I rarely have any cash on hand to invest or speculate with and all this global turmoil, panic and perception stuff just seems like one of those times when I have the rare opportunity to make an extra quid.

I'd welcome your advice on an alternative speculation or investment.

cheers.


----------



## disarray

Tysonboss1 said:


> But please go ahead and explain why it is different this time.




because this time global economic systems are on the brink of collapse. i understand the points you make but they are predicated on maintaining the stable framework on which our modern economic system rests. this current system is built on debt, confidence and fiat money. unfortunately the system has now been so distorted by government interference / banking manipulation / humans being short sighted greedy retards (like always) that it either needs a serious recalibration or it will fall over.

either way i see the "value" of gold as something ALL humans have ALWAYS agreed on, and in times such as these, when systems are wobbling, money is going to want a solid foundation to park itself on while it rides out the shocks. i think gold is the best foundation available at the moment.

everything you say is correct "in theory", but we are witnessing a generational, systemic change brought about by reaching the limits of the systems capacity. until the next wave of tech comes through to increase / more efficiently utilise available resources, we are pretty much running full tilt on resource consumption / utilisation / population growth / environmental sustainability / financial sleight-of-hand etc.

this is the fall of rome baby. may you live in interesting times.

in my humbly bearish opinion of course


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> No 'investment' alive today promises safety of principle, or an adequate return. Not even a term deposit or US treasury bond. Don't kid yourself! There is always some degree of speculation, at this point in time gold is being driven upwards by speculation but just about every risky investment goes through times like this.




I agree that no single capital allocation in isolation can promise absolute safety of principle, but an investment operation as a whole that is based on sound principles along with a margin of safety and some basic diversification can promise safety of principle by preventing any permanent loss of capital.


----------



## Tysonboss1

aclassic said:


> Except for this next year, I rarely have any cash on hand to invest or speculate with.




What? why don't you normally have any money to invest. 

And if you do find money hard to come by what do you want to squander it by speculating, the house always wins in the end.


----------



## aclassic

Tysonboss1 said:


> What? why don't you normally have any money to invest.
> 
> And if you do find money hard to come by what do you want to squander it by speculating, the house always wins in the end.




Right or wrong, I have only been a wage earner and the rest is rather personal ie health,kids and relationship.

I appreciate and have taken note of your view.

thanks.


----------



## Billyb

explod said:


> Do you consider physical gold to be risky?




Yes of course there. Let me think of a few risks (unlikely, but nonetheless risks)

-If you store it in a bank vault or at the Mint then you are assuming that your gold is safe there. That is risk. 
-Governments can confiscate or force you to sell your gold back to them at a low price. It happened in the US during the great depression and there's not guranantee governments wont do it again, because when times get rough governments can do silly things. 
-In order to prevent this from happenening, you can hide your gold from the government by storing it at home - that is risk also
-Then there are the normal risks associated with the possibility of the value of gold dropping unexpectedly, having to find a buyer etc


----------



## Tysonboss1

aclassic said:


> Right or wrong, I have only been a wage earner and the rest is rather personal ie health,kids and relationship.
> 
> I appreciate and have taken note of your view.
> 
> thanks.




I am sorry to hear about any health concerns you have,

But being a wage earner is good for investmenting, just spend less than you earn  each week and invest the saving and you will do well.


----------



## explod

Billyb said:


> Yes of course there. Let me think of a few risks (unlikely, but nonetheless risks)
> 
> -If you store it in a bank vault or at the Mint then you are assuming that your gold is safe there. That is risk.
> -Governments can confiscate or force you to sell your gold back to them at a low price. It happened in the US during the great depression and there's not guranantee governments wont do it again, because when times get rough governments can do silly things.
> -In order to prevent this from happenening, you can hide your gold from the government by storing it at home - that is risk also
> -Then there are the normal risks associated with the possibility of the value of gold dropping unexpectedly, having to find a buyer etc




Yep agree, knew of all those possibilites.  So tell me what is increasing in value and is safer than gold?

Bearing in mind it is up 300% in five years and with the money printing going on this momentum is most likely to keep the trend in its upwards bias.

And by the way I sold my gold bars two years ago and converted to silver bars and a lot of silver coins in a place where no one will get to them.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> So tell me what is increasing in value and is safer than gold?
> 
> Bearing in mind it is up 300% in five years and with the money printing going on this momentum is most likely to keep the trend in its upwards bias.




See thats a big problem with human emotions.

We see large and consistent gains as proof that an asset class is a safe and a good investment, even though such a bull run may mean it is now infact over valued and a large correction is due.

and conversly.

We see large falls in an assets prices as an asset being risky or unsafe, and not that it is probably worthy of our attention because the recent falls have made it a bargin issue and it is due to have healthy returns.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> Bearing in mind it is up 300% in five years and with the money printing going on this momentum is most likely to keep the trend in its upwards bias.




wouldn't this have upward pressure on all real assets outside of cash, ie. real estate, businesses, mines, farmland and all the commodiites.

And if this is the main reason for investing in gold, would it not be more wise to hold some other physical asset that will have the same longterm hedge against the dollar, but can be bought now at discounts rather than highs, and generate income along the way.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> See thats a big problem with human emotions.
> 
> We see large and consistent gains as proof that an asset class is a safe and a good investment, even though such a bull run may mean it is now infact over valued and a large correction is due.
> 
> and conversly.
> 
> We see large falls in an assets prices as an asset being risky or unsafe, and not that it is probably worthy of our attention because the recent falls have made it a bargin issue and it is due to have healthy returns.




We follow trends and this trend is up.  Have you read Michael Covels "Trend Following" find details of it here  http://www.michaelcovel.com/

Purhased it four years ago and I follow it.

Everything is risky and the sky may fall in too, but physical bullion in the hand on current trends is about as less risky as you will find.

With most of the world now encouraging the devaluation of thier paper money I know what is best for me.   Others may make thier own choices and unlike some on the forum do not infer advice to anyone.  We should focus on the topic, the "Gold Price - Where is it heading?"


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> wouldn't this have upward pressure on all real assets outside of cash, ie. real estate, businesses, mines, farmland and all the commodiites.
> 
> And if this is the main reason for investing in gold, would it not be more wise to hold some other physical asset that will have the same longterm hedge against the dollar, but can be bought now at discounts rather than highs, and generate income along the way.




These other assets you mentioned are in a lot of cases loaded in or effected by debt, gold in the hand has no debt.  You could borrow to buy it of course but that would defeat the purpose.  Gold is merely a store of value.  And who's worried about 6% interest, which is probably less a number than real inflation when gold is up 50% for the last 12 months.  And the fed heads will keep it going up as the underlying very wealthy, Rothschilds and co., will be up to their necks in gold.

There of course will come a time when property for example will have another day, but that is not now, it is going sideways, if you like on the charts.   And the time will come when I will liquidate my bullion to move into these other tangible assets  but for mine it is not now the time.,

However we are off topic, we should be discussing gold itself on this thread and where it is going.


----------



## awg

Tysonboss1 said:


> wouldn't this have upward pressure on all real assets outside of cash, ie. real estate, businesses, mines, farmland and all the commodiites.
> 
> And if this is the main reason for investing in gold, would it not be more wise to hold some other physical asset that will have the same longterm hedge against the dollar, but can be bought now at discounts rather than highs, and generate income along the way.




If things get very bad as in the 1930s USA Depression, my understanding is that gold shares did well, and paid DIVIDENDS.

Better Depression economists than me might be able to comment further

I agree certain diversifications as suggested sound sensible,( have em) but they arent as small as a chocolate bar, and cant sell them over the counter today.

Due to the fact that Gold represents such a tiny fraction of Total Investment, if there were to be a substantial piling in by retail investors worldwide, then crazy growth might occur.

I think that is happening now, which I consider unfortunate to a some extent, but what can you do but try and stay on the right side of the equation?

Another point is I dont see any of the assets you mentioned to be undervalued at present in the cycle, by any means, (just like gold) but there is less prospect of a violent upward spike (unlike gold)


----------



## RandR

I have one simple question for anybody currently holding physical gold (not silver .. as I actually believe that to be a useful product)

When do you plan to sell ? Im curious, what price or percentage point increase are you holding out for ? Is your plan to achieve a certain margin / hold until the passing of macro events / hold forever etc ...

Dont mistake me and think I dont believe gold will continue to increase in the current environment, as I believe it will, Im just completely unsure about how much and for how long, and so Id rather back the knowns I think I know, (the inevitable pop) then the unknowns I think I dont know. (for how long and how far gold will continue to rise)


----------



## DB008

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the gold thread, but an interesting development nonetheless. 



*Golden Retrieval: Chavez wants his billion back*




(explod - clear your inbox)


----------



## explod

Thanks for posting up DB008.   And the following via the GATA website makes clear the potential of Venezuela's gold repatriation putting an absolute rocket under the gold price.

Comments ought also be of concern to those who do not actually have possession of the physical.

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/

http://www.gata.org/node/10321


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> .  Gold is merely a store of value.




Yes, exactly.

Which to me means that any such monumental rise in the 100's of % over a relatively short time frame should be veiwed with caution.

Some thing that is to be considered a store of value can only be a store of value if it is bought close to it's longterm historical price adjusted for inflation. Gold has massive, massive inflation already priced in. if this doesn't happen, or takes 30 years to happen, you will see big price falls and question how mauch value you have stored.

Gold, does nothing, it just sits there. the only rational way it can double in value is for the world economy to double in size (without new gold reserves being found) or for inflation to half the value of the currency ( But then all real assets will go up at the same time, while also generating returns)


----------



## Mr Z

Oh cripes... LOOK at the US money supply since 2008. The inflation has happened, it is history... now the effects are following.

NO that is not the only rational way it can double in value, you are completely misunderstanding golds role in the system, it is not solely an inflation hedge. In fact it is not a very good inflation hedge MOST of the time, other conditions need to be present for gold to fly. We have those conditions present today and for the foreseeable future.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> Sorry, I just have to pull you up their.
> 
> The word speculation should be used inplace of investment.
> 
> "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."




Sorry, again you are wrong, gold has met the conditions to be called a sound investment since the early 2000's. Any reasonable analyses of the macro situation from that date would have lead you to incorporating gold into your portfolio. It certainly was very evident to me at that time and it is still very evident that this has quite a way to go.

Just because you don't get it doesn't mean it ain't so.

BTW. We look due for that correction again... I don't think it will be that deep given what is going on.


----------



## NewTrade

About 2K/Oz is where its heading 

I can't believe it has hit 1900 already


----------



## aclassic

Mr Z said:


> BTW. We look due for that correction again... I don't think it will be that deep given what is going on.




Mr Z, would you mind, even if only for a retrospective future laugh, hazarding predictions of:

Duration of dip.
pog end 2011
pog mid 2012
pog end 2012
pog end of mad rush and when?

There's a challenge.
I'm off to the bank but don't tell anyone.
cheers.


----------



## explod

It is not hard to work out as the price of gold has gone up an average of 30% per year since 2001.  And as the monetisation of debt looks to continue so will the price of gold go up on its current trend.

We have had a fair bit of it this year so I am calling US$2,200 2011

2012 about $2,900
2013  "   "    3,900

roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.  

And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.


----------



## aclassic

explod said:


> roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.
> 
> And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.




Many thanks explod.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> 1,Oh cripes... LOOK at the US money supply since 2008. The inflation has happened, it is history... now the effects are following.
> 
> 2,  In fact it is not a very good inflation hedge MOST of the time,
> 
> 3, other conditions need to be present for gold to fly.
> 
> 4, We have those conditions present today and for the foreseeable future.




1, yes there has been inflation, but not in the 100's of % since 2000.

2, Yes I know, hence why I will never hold it.

3, Agreed, a large fear driven speculative bubble must exist.

4, Well, maybe. who knows


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> It is not hard to work out as the price of gold has gone up an average of 30% per year since 2001.  And as the monetisation of debt looks to continue so will the price of gold go up on its current trend.
> 
> We have had a fair bit of it this year so I am calling US$2,200 2011
> 
> 2012 about $2,900
> 2013  "   "    3,900
> 
> roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.
> 
> And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.




Ha ha ha XD

I think Robots is a more conservative investor than you.


----------



## notting

> And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.



Well their setting up ATMs to deliver gold coins to the general puplic who are panicking about their banks.
Seems pretty bloated to me.  But then again you could argue that that is a demand that was not there before from the man in the street.
It's a bit early to call IMO


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Ha ha ha XD
> 
> I think Robots is a more conservative investor than you.




Do the sums? they speak for themselves,  as do the fundamentals.
And wait till the sentiment really sets in.

And a nice "ha ha ha" to you too.


----------



## Billyb

explod said:


> Yep agree, knew of all those possibilites.  So tell me what is increasing in value and is safer than gold?
> 
> Bearing in mind it is up 300% in five years and with the money printing going on this momentum is most likely to keep the trend in its upwards bias.
> 
> And by the way I sold my gold bars two years ago and converted to silver bars and a lot of silver coins in a place where no one will get to them.




I agree with you, gold is perhaps one of the least riskiest places to be right now. May I ask why you chose to sell gold and buy silver?I am always worried about silver, I am tempted to buy it as it is trending up right now, but I am always reminded of the great silver crash around 1980. Gold came down slowly, but silver just got smashed to bits very quickly. 



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, Agreed, a large fear driven speculative bubble must exist.




What if this bubble keeps going for another 3 years before it 'pops'. Wouldn't it have been better to be in the bubble for those three years than out? No one knows when this bubble is going to pop, but with current conditions chances are it wont pop SOON, so you might as well be in the bubble than out of it.


----------



## explod

Billyb said:


> I agree with you, gold is perhaps one of the least riskiest places to be right now. May I ask why you chose to sell gold and buy silver?I am always worried about silver, I am tempted to buy it as it is trending up right now, but I am always reminded of the great silver crash around 1980. Gold came down slowly, but silver just got smashed to bits very quickly.




A good question.  My choice of gold over silver is because of the ratio difference at this time.   Historically this ratio has been that the value of one ounce of gold was equal to 15 ounces of silver.  At this time, not checked it for a week, but from memory it is about one ounce of gold equals 40 or so ounces of silver.  I expect from my own studies that silver will return to this mean average again.  Some calculations will soon make this reasoning clear.

The spike in silver in 1980 was because the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market and the rise from just a few dollars to $50 happened in a very short time and of course collapsed even faster.  Very different to today where we see silver climbing gradually, albeit with some volatilty recently. 

I did have gold bars up till about two years ago and cashed in when the price was at Aus$11,500 an ounce and purchased silver then at Aus$15 an ounce.  Silver has increased by more than 300% since then but gold has not yet doubled.  So I am pleased with my decision and comfortable about holding for the time being.  I did put a lot of study and thought into bullion back in 2002 and as a result obtained a personal vault in a location only half a block away from a bullion dealer.  I am able to cash in or change my positions within an hour.  Stocks for example take up to four days to settle. So if I thought the sky was going to fall in, action could be taken immediately.

Historically silver has been used in coins, like gold, as part of currency and many people still have a high regard for it in this way.  But I do have a very avid interest in the gold market as it is a big indicator of currency changes, it can be seen to act on general market sentiment and on major civil unrest or international tensions.  So it is a fascinating study and it is worth your while in Googling up and learning about its history as money which dates back nearly 6000 years.


----------



## DB008

Gold Tumbles in Metal’s Biggest Decline in a Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/gold-declines-from-record-above-1-910-as-some-investors-sell.html



> Gold dropped the most in a year as some investors sold the metal after signs of slowing growth spurred a rally to a record $1,917.90 an ounce.
> 
> The relative-strength index of futures in New York has topped 70 since Aug. 8, a signal to some investors that prices were poised to decline. Bullion has jumped 14 percent in August amid speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will signal further measures to stimulate the U.S. economy later this week and as debt crises spurred demand for haven assets.
> 
> “*Gold looks very bubbly*,” Matt Zeman, a strategist at Kingsview Financial in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Gold’s going to continue to suck everybody in. There’s too much risk of a wicked correction lurking around the corner to enter the trade right now.”




More from the link above....


----------



## aclassic

DB008 said:


> Gold Tumbles in Metal’s Biggest Decline in a Year
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/gold-declines-from-record-above-1-910-as-some-investors-sell.html
> 
> 
> 
> More from the link above....




First part of that article is quoting stockbrokers looking for any news to spur share trades I reckon.
But then the article goes on with:
_
UBS AG raised its one-month gold forecast to $1,950 from $1,725 and increased its three-month outlook to $2,100 from $1,850. Yesterday, the bank’s physical sales to India, the top global buyer, were the highest since May 10, according to UBS analyst Edel Tully said.

Bernanke is scheduled to speak Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at an annual conference sponsored by the Fed Bank of Kansas City.

“In the long-term, gold is attractive,” Zeman of Kingsview said. “Fiscal deficits are completely out of control. It’s no wonder that investors are losing faith in paper money.” _

What do you make of that?


----------



## DB008

^Make of that what you will. I am just cautious of Gold as it has had a very big rise this year. If/When it pops, it will drop very fast.


----------



## aclassic

Thanks DB008

I wonder if we are seeing Mr Z 's correction atm?


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> What if this bubble keeps going for another 3 years before it 'pops'. Wouldn't it have been better to be in the bubble for those three years than out?




i personally would prefer not to.

But hey, there is nothing illegal or immoral about out right speculation, and it can be fun while you ahead in the game.

But always keep in mind the rules of speculation.

- never speculate with more than you feel comfortable losing
- never add more funds into speculative pursuits because they have been running in you favour ( if anything start drawing down)
- never lose sight of the fact your speculating or fall into the trap of thinking your making sound investments.
- never gamble seriously treat it as a past time or entertainment.


----------



## notting

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-to-record-level/story-e6frg91x-1226120239966

Argument for the bulls. May still fly a bit.

I am a bear on gold.
Looking for some shorts - St Barbara looks nice any others that are high but not that great you guys might know of?


----------



## Billyb

DB008 said:


> Gold Tumbles in Metal’s Biggest Decline in a Year
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/gold-declines-from-record-above-1-910-as-some-investors-sell.html
> 
> 
> 
> More from the link above....




All these reported needs to define what they mean by 'gold is looking bubbly right now'. If by bubble they mean, it could soon drop from $1850 to $1650, and the come back up then OKAY, that's reasonable. Long term holders can handle a small temporary fall like that. If by bubbly they mean it's gonna drop right back to what it was 10 years ago and not come back again for another 20 years, then that's not logical IMO. It's been going up for 10 years, why the heck would it all of a sudden trend down that much when fear is at the highest it's been since the GFC.



Tysonboss1 said:


> i personally would prefer not to.
> 
> But hey, there is nothing illegal or immoral about out right speculation, and it can be fun while you ahead in the game.
> 
> But always keep in mind the rules of speculation.
> 
> - never speculate with more than you feel comfortable losing
> - never add more funds into speculative pursuits because they have been running in you favour ( if anything start drawing down)
> - never lose sight of the fact your speculating or fall into the trap of thinking your making sound investments.
> - never gamble seriously treat it as a past time or entertainment.




You talk about speculation as though it's a bad thing. Gold goes up based largely on speculation. The prices of businesses, aka stock prices, as well as prices of just about everything else that's traded, change daily largely because of speculation. You are making a fundamental error by singling out gold in that respect. But you either take advantage of that speculation or you don't. You either take the risk or you don't. No risk, no return. It's as simple as that.


----------



## explod

Very well said Billyb.

And interestingly, those thinking it is going to tank give no fundamental reason for it doing so.

As the US$ dollar continues to be diluted in value by the expansion of credit and helecopter Ben's money printing, gold will continue to fly higher.  Corrections will be small and short lived from now on, *for those reasons*.


----------



## disarray

DB008 said:


> Gold Tumbles in Metal’s Biggest Decline in a Year




market is volatile!

news at 11


----------



## BRUNONO2

disarray said:


> market is volatile!
> 
> news at 11




Gold can only go up with 95% of Governments printing more and more paper money -History proves this. That is why banks and governments have had such a big prpoganda campaign against gold and silver
We have inflation BECAUSE of money printing


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> 1,You talk about speculation as though it's a bad thing.
> 
> 2, Gold goes up based largely on speculation. The prices of businesses, aka stock prices, as well as prices of just about everything else that's traded, change daily largely because of speculation.
> 
> 3, You are making a fundamental error by singling out gold in that respect.
> 
> 4, No risk, no return. It's as simple as that.




1, No, If you re read what I said you will find I said it is neither illegal nor immoral, I have never said speculation is "Bad or wrong" as long as you are aware you are doing it and don't speculate while trying to invest.

2, Yes, many people do use the financel markets including gold, stocks and property etc etc to speculate. Some stocks and bonds are highly speculative and must be owned by some one, but they should not be classed as investments, ( unless they are part of a professionals portfolio that has skill and experiance in the field) 

3, I am not singling out gold, this is a gold thread so I am speaking of gold. 

4, that statement is misleading, Low risk does not = Low returns, and High risk does not = High returns. If you believe that you have alot to earn in the game of investments.


----------



## DB008

BRUNONO2 said:


> *Gold can only go up *with 95% of Governments printing more and more paper money -History proves this. That is why banks and governments have had such a big prpoganda campaign against gold and silver
> We have inflation BECAUSE of money printing




Careful, isn't that what they said about house prices?

I made a decent profit on Silver recently (asx:etpmag), missed out on an extra 50% profit because l was greedy. As they say, you will never go broke selling for a profit.


----------



## Tysonboss1

BRUNONO2 said:


> Gold can only go up with 95% of Governments printing more and more paper money -History proves this. That is why banks and governments have had such a big prpoganda campaign against gold and silver
> We have inflation BECAUSE of money printing




Ok, your using the arguement that Gold is going to work as a hedge against hyper inflation that is coming.

my question is- 

- Since gold has already advanced to 6 times the value it was just 10 years ago alot of future inflation is already priced in, how are further gains outside of speculation justified?

- If Governments are creating to much money, and the hyper inflation is on it's way, Why would gold be the obvious choice?, Surely other real assets that will also increase in value as the currency is debased but still generate income and have not increased 6 times in value would be better.


----------



## Billyb

explod said:


> Corrections will be small and short lived from now on, *for those reasons*.



 Agree 



Tysonboss1 said:


> 4, that statement is misleading, Low risk does not = Low returns, and High risk does not = High returns.




I said no risk means no return. I.e if one doesn't take the risk of entering speculative investments like gold or silver, there will be no return from them if and when they go up. So that individual has not taken advantange of speculation because of trying to avoid risk. They don't enter because they think there is no fundamental reason it should keep going up - I humbly disagree - If fundamentals is the study of why a price should go a certain direction - well then in the case of gold the fundamental reason is the human emotion called fear*. History seems to show that if there's fear around then gold is almost guaranteed to go up. So IMHO the fundamental driver of gold is the emotion fear*. And that fundamental is still there, all around the world in fact.

*fear of inflation and market uncertainty


----------



## DB008

Billyb said:


> I said no risk means no return.




This is pretty much risk free and has a return


(Probably Government guaranteed too up to $1million, so l'd say that's as close to risk free as you can get)


----------



## Billyb

DB008 said:


> This is pretty much risk free and has a return
> 
> 
> (Probably Government guaranteed too up to $1million, so l'd say that's as close to risk free as you can get)




Yep, I think government guarantee runs out soon though. I really did make my statement in relation to gold though.


----------



## skyQuake

Speculators liquidation - follow thru from yesterday.

Nice move - 80/contract for a few hrs work


----------



## DB008

Well, that a was a nice drop, Gold was down $100 at one point and clawed back a little.


Gold Margins Raised 27% on CME’s Comex After Biggest Price Drop Since 2008


> CME Group Inc. raised the margin requirements on gold trading at its Comex unit for the second time this month, after prices surged to a record above $1,900 an ounce and then plunged today by the most since March 2008.
> 
> The minimum cash deposit for borrowing from brokers to trade gold futures will rise 27 percent to $9,450 per 100-ounce contract in the speculative Tier 1 category at the close of trading tomorrow, Chicago-based CME said in a statement. On Aug. 11, the increase by the exchange was 22 percent to $7,425. The cost of one contract after today’s close was $175,730. The maintenance margin will rise to $7,000 from $5,500.
> 
> Comex is making it more expensive for speculators to trade the metal as open interest for gold options climbed to a record 1.263 million contracts on Aug. 18 and prices slumped more than 7 percent in two days, erasing the gain of the past two weeks that sent the metal to a record $1,917.90 yesterday.




More here...


----------



## explod

A very healthy correction as it was overheating.  Some consolidation around this level will provide good support going forward.  And also a good opportunity to top up.  However we could well see moves further down going into this weekend.

Benanke "the helecopter tanki" speaks this weekend so we should expect some gobbledegook words of wisdom to cover some more money printing (QE3) but may be dressed under another name I would say.  Gold will not rest for too long after this.

And volatility yes, to be expected and will increase.   Five to ten dollar moves in silver and $100 moves in gold will become the daily norm before it really takes off.

In my humble opinion.


----------



## skyQuake

DB008 said:


> Well, that a was a nice drop, Gold was down $100 at one point and clawed back a little.
> 
> 
> Gold Margins Raised 27% on CME’s Comex After Biggest Price Drop Since 2008
> 
> 
> More here...




Interesting. That was after the decline, and before the a 6.2 quake hits Vanuatu. Yet nothing happening in gold so far..


----------



## mr. jeff

There must be some very angry large leveraged gold longs out there when the margin gets upped who  have had to cut some positions. Would be very hard to swallow.
Nothing for gold has fundamentally changed though. ? To say this is just a speculative bubble would probably greatly amuse the countries which are currently buying physical as fast as they can. Or retrieving their stored physical.


----------



## Tysonboss1

mr. jeff said:


> 1, Nothing for gold has fundamentally changed though. ?
> 
> 2, To say this is just a speculative bubble would probably greatly amuse the countries which are currently buying physical as fast as they can. Or retrieving their stored physical.




1, I agree, nothing has changed fundmentally for gold for the last 50years, That is why they sudden rises are a speculative bubble. an KG of gold is still just a KG of gold.

2, Yeah, Governments have such a great track record of investments.


----------



## explod

It is not *speculative * and it is not a *bubble*.  As it has been for 5,000 years it is the real deal.

Yes property and other tangibles will have their day later on, but it is bullion that is the safest haven now.

Just have a good look at the 10 year chart.  "The trend is your friend untill the bend"


----------



## skyQuake

explod said:


> It is not *speculative * and it is not a *bubble*.  As it has been for 5,000 years it is the real deal.
> 
> Yes property and other tangibles will have their day later on, but it is bullion that is the safest haven now.
> 
> Just have a good look at the 10 year chart.  "The trend is your friend untill the bend"




I would say it is spec, but probably not a bubble. Media calls it bubble because theres a lot of spec longs on it, which are probably in the process of being washed out.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> It is not *speculative *




Yes it is. If you buy somthing with the sole intention of selling it for a higher price next week, next month or next year you are speculating.

An investment attitude looks to the asset itself to generate the return, But gold produces no return outside of selling it to a bigger idiot in the future,

Whether you buy shares, realestate or any other asset if you a simply looking to flip it for a higher price later you are speculating.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> and it is not a *bubble*.




Well many people believe property is in a bubble, and as mentioned earlier it has only gone from $218 to $450 in 10 years, Not $300 to $1900.

What price do you personally believe gold would have to get to before it could be called a bubble.


----------



## investorpaul

Gold is going to copy what silver did IMO.

It was in an established uptrend - broke out and went parabolic - price crashes/comex raises margins - it will re-enter the original channel and consolidate before continuing with the previous uptrend.

I did an write up on my blog about it this morning: http://investor-paul.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-pulls-back-is-it-following-silvers.html

Or look at the charts:







Im not massively into TA but thats what it looks like to me


----------



## disarray

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, I agree, nothing has changed fundmentally for gold for the last 50years




past performance is not an indicator of future results



			
				Tysonboss1 said:
			
		

> What price do you personally believe gold would have to get to before it could be called a bubble




what price do you personally believe gold should be?



			
				Tysonboss1 said:
			
		

> An investment attitude looks to the asset itself to generate the return, But gold produces no return outside of selling it to a bigger idiot in the future




so where's your money parked then mr. not an idiot?


----------



## Whiskers

I've been on the sidelines a bit of late and haven't updated my charts. My most likely scenarios (from some months ago) have been taken out in gold and the AUD/USD in particular. Until I check the EW count  I can only suspect the most extreme of these scenarios have played out. I think my extreme for the AUD/USD was abt 1.11 and I suspect it has topped for now and set to fall on average in the medium term.

Back to gold...WATCH OUT BELOW!!!

It seems to me a large part of the gold price rise is reminiscent of the property 'bubble' when all the vendors of property were flooding my mail box hawking their wares at feverish rates.


----------



## wayneL

Tysonboss1 said:


> Yes it is. If you buy somthing with the sole intention of selling it for a higher price next week, next month or next year you are speculating.
> 
> An investment attitude looks to the asset itself to generate the return, But gold produces no return outside of selling it to a bigger idiot in the future,
> 
> Whether you buy shares, realestate or any other asset if you a simply looking to flip it for a higher price later you are speculating.




So are retailers speculators?


----------



## Tysonboss1

disarray said:


> 1, past performance is not an indicator of future results
> 
> 
> 
> 2, what price do you personally believe gold should be?




1, sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't, But i fail to see how this relates to the comment I made.

I was saying that nothing fundamental has changed with gold, it is still just gold, the same non reactive, pretty, heavy metal it has always been. and in 100 years it will still be just gold. it's not magic it is just a commodity whose price flucutates both up and down over time. Offcourse inflation of the money supply should maintain some upward pressure, but not like we have seen.

2, As I said it will flucutate, I would suggest it would maintain it's relative value overtime in an inflation adjusted way, maybe some where around $800 in todays money.

But look it goes with out saying, when you buy a low yielding investment, ( gold is zero yield), you must only do so when there is low chance of suffering a loss in capital value.

Gold at current trading prices does not offer safty of priciple in my veiw at this time.


----------



## Tysonboss1

wayneL said:


> So are retailers speculators?




They are traders, 

and whether they make a profit is determined by how well they understand the supply and demand dynamics of the products they are retailing, and how well the manage their relationships with suppliers and customers.

I am a retailer, and yes when deciding whether to stock a new product that I am unsure of demand, I am in a way speculating, and some times end up clearing stock at a loss.


----------



## wayneL

Tysonboss1 said:


> They are traders,
> 
> and whether they make a profit is determined by how well they understand the supply and demand dynamics of the products they are retailing, and how well the manage their relationships with suppliers and customers.
> 
> I am a retailer, and yes when deciding whether to stock a new product that I am unsure of demand, I am in a way speculating, and some times end up clearing stock at a loss.




So speculators are retailers?


----------



## disarray

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't, But i fail to see how this relates to the comment I made.




that's the problem



			
				Tysonboss said:
			
		

> I was saying that nothing fundamental has changed with gold, it is still just gold, the same non reactive, pretty, heavy metal it has always been. and in 100 years it will still be just gold.




it's not the nature of gold that is determining it's price. it's the nature of man that is determining it.



			
				Tysonboss1 said:
			
		

> Offcourse inflation of the money supply should maintain some upward pressure, but not like we have seen.




so you've factored in every possible input into the system have you? considered political changes, economic restructuring, social conflict, currency risk, excessive credit, unsupported derivatives, financial mismanagement, fraud, price manipulation, speculation, public perception, resource availability, resource extraction and consumption, and the lynchpin of the whole thing - "trust", and come to the conclusion ....



			
				Tysonboss1 said:
			
		

> I would suggest it would maintain it's relative value overtime in an inflation adjusted way, maybe some where around $800 in todays money




clever man. give me a time frame and i'll acknowledge you guru should it come to pass. or send my girlfriend who believes in astrology and crystals over to you for a reading.



			
				Tysonboss1 said:
			
		

> But look it goes with out saying, when you buy a low yielding investment, ( gold is zero yield), you must only do so when there is low chance of suffering a loss in capital value.
> 
> Gold at current trading prices does not offer safty of priciple in my veiw at this time.




thanks gordon gecko


----------



## Tysonboss1

wayneL said:


> So speculators are retailers?




No,

5cents is a coin, But that does not mean all coins are 5cents.

You asked are retailers speculaters, and the answer was somtimes.


----------



## wayneL

Thanks for your received wisdom


----------



## wayneL

Tyson

If someone buys a house where the rent does not cover the mortgage, are they speculating?


----------



## Tysonboss1

disarray said:


> 1, it's not the nature of gold that is determining it's price. it's the nature of man that is determining it.
> 
> 
> 
> 2, so you've factored in every possible input into the system have you? considered political changes, economic restructuring, social conflict, currency risk, excessive credit, unsupported derivatives, financial mismanagement, fraud, price manipulation, speculation, public perception, resource availability, resource extraction and consumption, and the lynchpin of the whole thing - "trust", and come to the conclusion ....
> 
> 
> 
> 3, clever man. give me a time frame and i'll acknowledge you guru should it come to pass. or send my girlfriend who believes in astrology and crystals over to you for a reading.
> 
> 
> 
> 4, thanks gordon gecko




1, Thats the problem

2, Some of those are unimportant and most that are important are un knowable which leads people to speculate the outcomes and creates wild mispricings, I'll steer clear thanks,

3, I can't tell the future, all I can do is try and establish what things are worth to me, a lump of gold is worth little to me, If you gave me a KG I would sell it today and use the money else where.

4, Thank Graham, it's straight out of his classic text.


----------



## Tysonboss1

wayneL said:


> Tyson
> 
> If someone buys a house where the rent does not cover the mortgage, are they speculating?




Yes,


----------



## disarray

Tysonboss1 said:


> Some of those are unimportant and most that are important are un knowable which leads people to speculate the outcomes and creates wild mispricings ... I can't tell the future, all I can do is try and establish what things are worth to me




yet your entire valuation and viewpoint is based on things staying as they are now. or more accurately, as you think things should be. it's all these unknowables you dismiss that are what is driving the price of gold and by having a narrow vision you are limiting your definition of value.

if the system was stable and economics worked and humans were reasonable and people told the truth and the news was always accurate then sure, gold shouldn't be worth much. but the system isn't, economics doesn't, humans aren't, people don't and the news isn't.

gold is almost an emotional play now, not your emotions, but everyone elses. by buying gold and silver i'm investing in FUD. if you've got got facts and figures on that and can chuck in a geopolitical slant, i'm all ears.


----------



## Tysonboss1

disarray said:


> by buying gold and silver i'm investing in FUD. if you've got got facts and figures on that and can chuck in a geopolitical slant, i'm all ears.




Do you have facts and figures on that.


----------



## Tysonboss1

disarray said:


> yet your entire valuation and viewpoint is based on things staying as they are now.




No, your entire valuation and viewpoint is based on how things are now.

I know their are problems around the world, But I believe we will get passed them, and if you believe that then you believe the fear will subside and with it the price of gold.


----------



## Billyb

Dissaray hit the nail on the head IMO. 

Who cares if emotions/fear/speculation are driving gold? The only thing that matters is that GOLD IS CURRENTLY LIKELY TO BE PROFITABLE, based on data from the previous 10 years of our lives. TEN YEARS. That's a lot of data in our favour. If you think the bubble is going to pop now - then all you are doing is trying to predict the future which you CANT possibly know - the bears have been trying to do this for the last 10 years in fact - saying "gold is in a bubble and it will pop soon" every single time they were wrong. What's the chances they are right this time? It's only the 1000th time they are making that prediction. Even if they are right their hit rate is 0.1%. I like those odds. Alas, eventually they will be right and gold will start going down, but by that time evidence will probably be starting to appear that this will happen (markets will stabilise and gold will start trending down) so there will be the chance to get out before it gets ugly.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 1. No, your entire valuation and viewpoint is based on how things are now.
> 
> I know their are problems around the world, But I believe we will get passed them, and if you believe that then you believe the fear will subside and with it the price of gold.




1. They always are, no one can predict the future so my  theory is act on what you know now- and what I know now is that gold has been giving profit to holders for 10 years and the probability of that all of a sudden changing now (during this market turmoil) is very low.

Corrections are expected. I hope gold corrects a little more than it has - to normalise back to a healthy trend. Silver is starting to show, IMO, that just because the price suddenly drops in a short period of time (which some people call 'bubble bursting') does NOT mean that the upward trend has stopped.

2. Yes history shows we always make it through, one way or another. In the meantime  gold is doing what it is supposed to do, go up in value when people are pooing themselves.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Yes it is. If you buy somthing with the sole intention of selling it for a higher price next week, next month or next year you are speculating.
> 
> An investment attitude looks to the asset itself to generate the return, But gold produces no return outside of selling it to a bigger idiot in the future,
> 
> Whether you buy shares, realestate or any other asset if you a simply looking to flip it for a higher price later you are speculating.




You just do not seem to get it Tysonboss1.

I am not speculating.

One could convert all assets into money and park it under the mattress.  Most would say this is not speculation but preserving your money safely. However with *real* inflation well above the officially released figures, the ever expansion of debt and the printing of money, paper money *is* losing value.

One could take out a term deposit and gain 6% interest *per annum*.  In the great depression and in Argentina many people did not ever get their money back when things really went pear shaped.

Or one could buy gold and silver and store it under the bed and gain on the current trend of 10 years, 30% average per annum.

In fact it is not even investing let alone speculating, it is just holding onto the *real value* of the money you put into it.

And as I have repeated, "the trend is your freind untill the bend" and the up trending channel is very much intact.    To break the trend it would take a breach of $1,500 and on the current growing demand for this safe haven that is very unlikely.

However I am always at the ready to cash in but pretty sure that day is a long way off.


----------



## explod

The following link discusses the current correction against that which occurred in 1978/9.  With the charts discussed it fairly well supports some of the points made in my last post instant.

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/08/letter-to-dennis-gartman-about-the-cortes-chart-.html


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> In fact it is not even investing let alone speculating, it is just holding onto the *real value* of the money you put into it.




No doubt you can put the physical gold in a safe place for 10years and it will still be there, But whether or not you can sell it at todays record levels depends on alot of factors, many of which are not guaranteed as you seem to believe.

Inregards to selling up into cash and placing it under the matress, if you look back at my comments you will find I have never suggested this, I have only compared gold to other assets which will achieve the same inflation protection while also generating income.

Saying that, holding cash under the matteress would have been better than holding gold under the matteress for over 2 decades if you bought in the late 70's peak.


----------



## skc

Down $200 in 2 days   None of the support levels put up more than a few hours of resistance. 

Next support ~$1670 will be tested tonight by the looks. And then it's ~$1625 and $1575.

Amazing just to watch.


----------



## cynic

Tysonboss1 said:


> I have only compared gold to other assets which will achieve the same inflation protection while also generating income.




Were you aware that it is actually possible to lease gold?


----------



## Tysonboss1

cynic said:


> Were you aware that it is actually possible to lease gold?




Yes I am aware that central banks lease gold to each other at rates of less than 1%, Not really enough to get me to by into an over valued asset, which is pittiful compared to what you can earn on other assets classes with the same inflation hedging and are currently less frothy.

But people are talking about holding physical under the materess because they don't trust the central banks, so leasing gold is not really an option for them


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> No doubt you can put the physical gold in a safe place for 10years and it will still be there, But whether or not you can sell it at todays record levels depends on alot of factors, many of which are not guaranteed as you seem to believe.
> 
> Inregards to selling up into cash and placing it under the matress, if you look back at my comments you will find I have never suggested this, I have only compared gold to other assets which will achieve the same inflation protection while also generating income.
> 
> Saying that, holding cash under the matteress would have been better than holding gold under the matteress for over 2 decades if you bought in the late 70's peak.




In the interim, at best these other assets are going sideways to down at the moment, property in particular is looking overbought.   That will one day change but till its in an uptrend it is not for this ole black duck.  I do recommend  you search for some discussions on the current property situation.  The drop off in real jobs and many loans being reviewed on lower property values is starting to bite.  Not saying we will drop the 80% as has happend across many parts of America and also now in the UK, but the orgy of using the house equety as a teller machine is going to hurt us a great deal soon in my opinion.  But yes in the long term freehold property will survive.  

Your example is weak and extreme, a good investor would have known when to sell his gold in 1980 and there were still opportunities to get out at a good profit then for some months after the blow off top.

Did you check out Michael Covel on "Trend following" ?

Protecting yourself financialy merely requires some study, common sense and being your own adviser.  That is fairly basic.  Selling my bullion only takes a few hours to the vault then ten minutes to the dealer. Have done it many times now.

Inflation adjusted, todays prices are not at record levels.   There is a growing shortage of gold, mines are being depleted and for whatever reason more and more people are wanting to buy it.

Though a few are starting to talk about it now there is little yet in the business sections of the daily newspapers.  Maybe then and for many other reasons one can *start* to look at gold as overbought.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> 1, Who cares if emotions/fear/speculation are driving gold? The only thing that matters is that GOLD IS CURRENTLY LIKELY TO BE PROFITABLE, based on data from the previous 10 years of our lives. TEN YEARS. That's a lot of data in our favour.
> 
> 2, If you think the bubble is going to pop now - then all you are doing is trying to predict the future which you CANT possibly know - the bears have been trying to do this for the last 10 years in fact - saying "gold is in a bubble and it will pop soon" every single time they were wrong. What's the chances they are right this time? It's only the 1000th time they are making that prediction. Even if they are right their hit rate is 0.1%. I like those odds.
> 
> 3, Alas, eventually they will be right and gold will start going down, but by that time evidence will probably be starting to appear that this will happen (markets will stabilise and gold will start trending down) so there will be the chance to get out before it gets ugly.




1, By this statement it looks to me like your falling into a massive trap,  probably the biggest mistake there is.

when Markets ( any market ) sees strong gains over a long period of say 10 years it transform the asset in peoples minds into a strong, reliable and sound investment right when it is dangerously high and due for a big correction. 

The same goes when markets fall, After an asset class suffers a big fall from grace in peoples mind it becomes risky, unsafe andnot investment grade just when it is selling at the most attractive levels and due to increase in value over time.

2, If you think gold will continue to rise you are trying to predict the future, I have never said gold is in a bubble in the past years only recently have I said it.

3, You haven't been around markets long have you, the more people that try an exit the harder and faster it falls, and it is mathamatically impossible for the majority to bail with their tail feathers intact.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Yes I am aware that central banks lease gold to each other at rates of less than 1%, Not really enough to get me to by into an over valued asset, which is pittiful compared to what you can earn on other assets classes with the same inflation hedging and are currently less frothy.
> 
> But people are talking about holding physical under the materess because they don't trust the central banks, so leasing gold is not really an option for them




Can you tell us about the other asset classes that are better than gold right now ?

Do you trust the central banks ?


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> If you think gold will continue to rise you are trying to predict the future, I have never said gold is in a bubble in the past years only recently have I said it.
> 
> 3, You haven't been around markets long have you, the more people that try an exit the harder and faster it falls, and it is mathamatically impossible for the majority to bail with their tail feathers intact.




Thinking gold will rise is not the issue, nor is predicting because we cannot.  But following a strong uptrend is following what is going on.  When it starts to go down then one follows that.  That is trend following.

The uptrend in gold is very much intact and as said earlier it would require a breach of $1500 for that to change.  The sentiment for gold as a safe haven is far too strong for that to happen in the medium term, in my view, *based on current evidence*.

Well I have been around markets since 1968 and a good investor knows when to get out and whilst there are plenty of buyers.  Its not rocket science


----------



## Chalea

skc said:


> Next support ~$1670 will be tested tonight by the looks. And then it's ~$1625 and $1575




Bearish Head & Shoulders Reversal forming?

Target = $1530 approx.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> Can you tell us about the other asset classes that are better than gold right now ?




There are many quality companies who shares are well off their highs who will be producing earnings the will compound over time and out pace Gold.

Even Property although it is marginly over valued is not super inflated like gold, and again it will have earnings that will compound.

As much as I don't like holding to much cash ( more than say 12months living expenses in personal account and 25% in investment account ),

I think at present interest rates, even cash will out perform gold over the next 10 years, simply because of the gold bubble pop.


----------



## disarray

Tysonboss1 said:


> Do you have facts and figures on that.




yeah i've weighted what i can see.

you still haven't answered where you have your money parked.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> I think at present interest rates, even cash will out perform gold over the next 10 years, simply because of the gold bubble pop.




I do not think gold is in a bubble pop situation and I have provided many reasons for this assertion.

What are your reasons, apart from what you think, for gold being overbought or in a bubble pop situation ?


----------



## Chalea

explod said:


> What are your reasons, apart from what you think, for gold being overbought or in a bubble pop situation ?




MACD/MACD Histogram bearish divergence, (anticipates signal line crossovers), a ST sell signal.

Time for a pull back to the rising 200 SMA...

Click


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1
> when Markets ( any market ) sees strong gains over a long period of say 10 years it transform the asset in peoples minds into a strong, reliable and sound investment right when it is dangerously high and due for a big correction.




Why do you say it's dangerously high? How do you know this? It sounds like you have made a prediction. I dont believe that a single person can predict when gold is dangerously high - they can only hazard a guess.

I have only been in the markets a few years, mostly casual, so yes I am inexperienced. But I don't think this is a difficult decision. You either ride the trend that's going up, or you avoid the ride because you 'guessed' that the price is now dangerously high.


----------



## Tysonboss1

disarray said:


> yeah i've weighted what i can see.
> 
> you still haven't answered where you have your money parked.




I own my own home, as well as some investment property, 

I have a diversified stock portfolio, which I consistently add using a value investing approach. 

I own a successful business throwing of cash each month. 

I hold some cash, but not excessive amounts just 12 months wages and some business profits not yet allocated. 

I also have a conservative option writing operation.


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> Saying that, holding cash under the matteress would have been better than holding gold under the matteress for over 2 decades if you bought in the late 70's peak.



Tysonboss, perhaps you forget _why_ there was a huge run up in gold in the 1970s, which then collapsed at the turn of the decade. The 1970s was highly inflationary, and the prices of gold and silver reflected similar concerns to that which people have today (today due to international loose monetary policy). The run up in gold was terminated when Paul Volcker became chairman of the US central bank and terminated the inflation with hard-line monetary tightening (interbank rate forced above 20%). 

I believe you said that gold is useless and produces nothing (or something to that effect). Relatively speaking, this is true. However, the same applies to _anything_ used as a money or a store of value. All monies sit in storage facilities, be they banks or wallets, and achieve no productive work. It is is not the purpose of money to produce, it is merely to provide: a store of value; a unit of account; a means of exchange. To the extent that paper money inflates, the more people move back towards the previous monetary unit which did not inflate (gold). 

You say that it is better to own stocks than gold because stocks are part-ownership in something that produces (which should theoretically also rise in value with inflation). However in economic environments of high inflation and high uncertainty, one does much better to take a position in the finished products themselves - commodities. In an inflationary or uncertain environment, a wheat futures contract will outperform a wheat farming stock. 

Gold is unlikely to be a legitimate bubble until most of the worlds real interest rates (including all of america, europe, east asia) cease to be non-positive.


----------



## DB008

Talking about history and it's relevance in regards to trading with trends (i.e. GOLD), here is a paper that 'The Chartist' found from Frankfurt, Germany.
Trend is your friend....maybe not.
http://www.frankfurt-school.de/clicnetclm/fileDownload.do?goid=000000311260AB4


----------



## awg

Tysonboss1 said:


> I own my own home, as well as some investment property,
> 
> I have a diversified stock portfolio, which I consistently add using a value investing approach.
> 
> I own a successful business throwing of cash each month.
> 
> I hold some cash, but not excessive amounts just 12 months wages and some business profits not yet allocated.
> 
> I also have a conservative option writing operation.




Fair enough for a value investor to question the PM price ATM 

Do you take the same view with gold stocks then?

There most certainly has been some opportunities over the last few years

Real business, making real profits, leveraged to an increasing price, and returning on capital by acquiring more assets.

There is still some anomolies between the PM and some gold mining shares that would give rise to many INVESTORS doing their sums carefully.

However you have stated $800 oz as your approx value, so I guess you wont be rushing into them either


----------



## DB008

Good analysis - and it's a freebie.

Gold  Silver Copper Crude


IraEpstein Youtube Futures's Channel.

[video]http://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures#p/a/u/1/KgVyKI1LFpw[/video]


----------



## Tysonboss1

awg said:


> Fair enough for a value investor to question the PM price ATM
> 
> Do you take the same view with gold stocks then?
> 
> There most certainly has been some opportunities over the last few years
> 
> Real business, making real profits, leveraged to an increasing price, and returning on capital by acquiring more assets.
> 
> There is still some anomolies between the PM and some gold mining shares that would give rise to many INVESTORS doing their sums carefully.
> 
> However you have stated $800 oz as your approx value, so I guess you wont be rushing into them either




If i were valuing a gold company I would not be using current prices to assess it future earning power, I would use a much more conservative gold price,

i mean look at the oil companies, they seemed super under valued when oil was $145 a barrel, but oil then dropped to $50 a barrel and so did the value of the oil companies.

When valuing mining companies it is important to use conservative commodity prices.

I personally would much prefer to invest in a diversified miner, so as to not have the risk of a single commodity.


----------



## Tysonboss1




----------



## explod

The following link is a fascinating discussion between James Turk and James Mcshirley on his close observations of the gold market since 2004.   Fairly compelling that someone has been trying to hold the gold price down and they may well be losing their grip.   

http://www.goldmoney.com/video/mcshirley-turk-interview.html


----------



## explod

explod said:


> A very healthy correction as it was overheating.  Some consolidation around this level will provide good support going forward.  And also a good opportunity to top up.  However we could well see moves further down going into this weekend.
> 
> Benanke "the helecopter tanki" speaks this weekend so we should expect some gobbledegook words of wisdom to cover some more money printing (QE3) but may be dressed under another name I would say.  Gold will not rest for too long after this.
> 
> And volatility yes, to be expected and will increase.   Five to ten dollar moves in silver and $100 moves in gold will become the daily norm before it really takes off.
> 
> In my humble opinion.




It is merely two days ago since I posted this and following Benanke's speach today both gold and silver have begun to rise strongly.

Expect them to go to new records next week and beyond as the real  game is just beginning.


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


>




Whats your point Tysonboss? Is yours Bernanke's position?
The most interesting thing is this, from the US constitution:


> Section 10. No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.



It is explicitly mentioned that gold and silver is money as far as the US is concerned as of inception. It is important information that the head of the US central bank does not recognize this. Indeed what Bernanke said in this video is an outright lie - the central bank does not hold gold 'out of tradition'. It holds gold because prior to 1971 gold was the monetary base - a situation terminated by their default. The fact that gold is no longer money in the US results from a crime - an outright theft and coercion of peoples gold out of their hands and into the possession of the state (FDR 1933, completed by  Nixon 1971), and not from people willingly choosing bits of paper that are irredeemable (US notes) as money.

I guess 'because we stole it from you all' is not as politically palatable as 'its just there because of tradition'.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> If i were valuing a gold company I would not be using current prices to assess it future earning power, I would use a much more conservative gold price,




You make a lot of asumptions Tysonboss1 that never seem to stand up.  A stock I am in, AYN, is factored at a silver price AUS$30.  Its production cost is $14 which is underway now and looking forward to the report end of September that they are on target to meet projections.  They have met all objectives so far and just await now for the re-rating that will soon come and a top up at that time.

Maybe its time to look past those financial advisers and make all of your own decisions.


----------



## Mr Z

*My god...*

Status Change: Gold Moves From Investment To Money

Even Forbes Magazine are catching up!


----------



## Billyb

tothemax6 said:


> Whats your point Tysonboss? Is yours Bernanke's position?
> The most interesting thing is this, from the US constitution:
> 
> It is explicitly mentioned that gold and silver is money as far as the US is concerned as of inception. It is important information that the head of the US central bank does not recognize this. Indeed what Bernanke said in this video is an outright lie - the central bank does not hold gold 'out of tradition'. It holds gold because prior to 1971 gold was the monetary base - a situation terminated by their default. The fact that gold is no longer money in the US results from a crime - an outright theft and coercion of peoples gold out of their hands and into the possession of the state (FDR 1933, completed by  Nixon 1971), and not from people willingly choosing bits of paper that are irredeemable (US notes) as money.
> 
> I guess 'because we stole it from you all' is not as politically palatable as 'its just there because of tradition'.




indeed, central banks are not (completely) stupid , they know that this thing that they create out of thin air is probably not going to last forever as valid currency, not unless it's backed by something.


----------



## Mr Z

How much does gold really cost a Central Bank that can create the money that it is purchased with?

This is why central banks tend to sell into lows and by into highs. It is not about profit or loss in the currency that they can create from nothing. It is about control... these guys will acquire all the gold they need when they really need it, at any price it happens to be. After all what does it cost to tack on a few extra zeros?

People tend to misunderstand central bank actions, they are not economic actors in the sense that the rest of us are.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> You make a lot of asumptions Tysonboss1 that never seem to stand up.  A stock I am in, AYN, is factored at a silver price AUS$30.  Its production cost is $14 which is underway now and looking forward to the report end of September that they are on target to meet projections.  They have met all objectives so far and just await now for the re-rating that will soon come and a top up at that time.
> 
> Maybe its time to look past those financial advisers and make all of your own decisions.




What assumptions are those, I can't recall saying anything about silver. 

At the end of the day a mine is just an earth moving operation, that uncovers a commodity which can be sold. The average cost of moving that earth over the mines life needs to be compared to the average price the commodity can be sold for. All I am saying is you should use a conservative figure, 

The is plenty of other commodities with better production cost/sale price dynamics.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> How much does gold really cost a Central Bank that can create the money that it is purchased with?
> 
> This is why central banks tend to sell into lows and by into highs. It is not about profit or loss in the currency that they can create from nothing. It is about control... these guys will acquire all the gold they need when they really need it, at any price it happens to be. After all what does it cost to tack on a few extra zeros?
> 
> People tend to misunderstand central bank actions, they are not economic actors in the sense that the rest of us are.




True, but do you not think that the demand and increased possession of physical outside of the banking system will not bring about a day of reckoning ?

That the way the popular media obviously hates to even print the word *gold* is not a sign that it may be a problem ?


----------



## Tysonboss1

tothemax6 said:


> Whats your point Tysonboss? Is yours Bernanke's position?
> The most interesting thing is this, from the US constitution:
> 
> an outright theft and coercion of peoples gold out of their hands and into the possession of the state (FDR 1933, completed by  Nixon 1971), and not from people willingly choosing bits of paper that are irredeemable (US notes) as money.
> 
> I guess 'because we stole it from you all' is not as politically palatable as 'its just there because of tradition'.




That little piece you posted states the case clearly,

It says the state can not "coin money" so they cannot make money. However, the states can make gold and silver coins, so the constitution clearly distinguishes between "money" and "gold" the states can not print dollars,


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> The is plenty of other commodities with better production cost/sale price dynamics.





I doubt it given that the larger part of silver production is byproduct. That is the key to understanding silver, it is relatively supply inelastic.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> True, but do you not think that the demand and increased possession of physical outside of the banking system will not bring about a day of reckoning ?
> 
> That the way the popular media obviously hates to even print the word *gold* is not a sign that it may be a problem ?




I'm not a big fan of the gold bug idea of a "day of reckoning". We are going to have some serious episodes but eventually serious action will be taken to stabilize this monster they have unleashed. Gold will be very popular right around that period! I honestly believe that eventually when things get too far out of control the US will  just reissue its currency, taking a leaf out of Hitlers book in dealing with the Weimar Republic's little inflation episode. It will get messy and there is a USD crisis coming but exactly how that plays depends on when it finally arrives. 

Lots to keep us entertained!


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> I doubt it given that the larger part of silver production is byproduct. That is the key to understanding silver, it is relatively supply inelastic.




I was making a direct comment in relation to explode $14 production cost to $30 sale price. 

I was simply saying there is a whole bunch of other commodities will better ratio's. 

Was not commenting on supply of silver.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> I was making a direct comment in relation to explode $14 production cost to $30 sale price.
> 
> I was simply saying there is a whole bunch of other commodities will better ratio's.
> 
> Was not commenting on supply of silver.




Would be pleased if you would state them?

I believe that the AYN situation is conservative, given the current trends, the ratio and rising prices of both pm's.   I expect by the end of September that silver will be well past $50 an ounce in both Aus and US.  AYN is Australias only pure silver producer.  CCU also a pure play will come into production later this year and is another to watch for.

One has to play safe to be sure, but one also has "to speculate to accumulate"


----------



## noirua

An increasing number of countries are buying gold to booster reserves due to the US$ weakness and the dodgy situation in America and Europe. Kazakhstan are the latest to give their central bank an order to buy gold produced in their country.

The move appears to be one that will increase the price of gold and IMHO it will go well past US$2,000 per ounce this year and push on towards US$3,000 per ounce in 2012.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> Would be pleased if you would state them?
> 
> I believe that the AYN situation is conservative, given the current trends, the ratio and rising prices of both pm's.   I expect by the end of September that silver will be well past $50 an ounce in both Aus and US.  AYN is Australias only pure silver producer.  CCU also a pure play will come into production later this year and is another to watch for.
> 
> One has to play safe to be sure, but one also has "to speculate to accumulate"




Onshore oil is usually $8 a barrel it is selling for about $90. Even tar sand oil which is one of the most expensive ways to come by oil is about $40 a barrel which is slightly better than your ratio on silver. 

Bhp's iron ore is operating on a 75% profit margin, meaning the cost of production is only 25% of the sale price, and that is a commodity well off it's highs. 

Infact most of bhp's commodities a working on far better ratios than the one you mentioned,


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> One has to play safe to be sure, but one also has "to speculate to accumulate"




I don't believe that at all, if you feel you have to gamble to get ahead, your doing it wrong.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> I don't believe that at all, if you feel you have to gamble to get ahead, your doing it wrong.




Now that is an intersting insight into your take of things.

Speculating is a far cry from gambling.  Your idaa to hold a wide variety of assets to my mind is very much closer to gambling than getting onto good trends.  Many of your current choices, in spite of yields are going sideways at best.  I do not criticise that and respect your way as I am sure you know when to get on or off.

What I do object to is your criticism of others without inputting some good reasons why.

I think it is because some of us may think for ourselves and outside common practice.  What has gone before does not always mean those ways will work in the future.  Ask any daytrader who uses auto trading methods.  As soon as it is out there and everyone is using it the effectiveness of getting an edge over others soon dissipates.

Going with change is the name of the game, and being ahead of the change based on good research is far from gambling; it is good speculation.

I apologise for us going way off topic, but sometimes mutual concerns need to be aired in situ.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Just to clarify, I don't personally subscribe to massive diversification, just a sensible amount so that should i be wrong (we all make mistakes) or some thing not knowable occurs (**** happen) it does not cause a permeant loss of capital. 

Between 6 and 20 stocks combined with cash and other assets is enough diversification for the enterprizing investor.


----------



## RandR

Mr Z said:


> I doubt it given that the larger part of silver production is byproduct. That is the key to understanding silver, it is relatively supply inelastic.




Yeah, and yet another key for silver is  the fact it is an industrial commodity, not just a precious metal. As an industrial commodity demand can fluctuate pretty wildly, combined with the inelastic supply creates a highly volatile market


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> That little piece you posted states the case clearly,
> 
> It says the state can not "coin money" so they cannot make money. However, the states can make gold and silver coins, so the constitution clearly distinguishes between "money" and "gold" the states can not print dollars,



I think perhaps you are confused, or you didn't read the piece. 'make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts' - no part of this sentence indicates that they may produce the coins themselves (which was done privately or historically foreign coins were used such as Mexican/Spanish dollars). I'm not sure how the 'print dollars' came into this, the novel idea that a piece of paper can be a dollar results from the historical actions I described in my last post.

The constitution clearly calls gold/silver _and gold/silver only_ to be money, logic:
"No State shall ...; coin Money" indicates that Money consists of coins as of the constitution being written.
"No State shall ...; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts;". What does one settle debts with? Money. The constitution states here that debt settlement cannot be forced to be by anything other than gold/silver coin, again indicating that they are money. And what is the purpose of this statement? To safeguard against precisely what has occurred: the declaration of paper tickets as being legal tender. In the end, the US does not follow its constitution.


----------



## aclassic

Gold Price - Where is it heading - Anyone care to speculate now?

Cheers.


----------



## explod

aclassic said:


> Gold Price - Where is it heading - Anyone care to speculate now?
> 
> Cheers.




Care to explain what you are trying to get across there aclassic ?


----------



## aclassic

explod said:


> Care to explain what you are trying to get across there aclassic ?




Good morning explod.  This thread has gone very quiet. mmm. No commentary on events influencing pog that's all. Calm before storm?
rgds.


----------



## explod

aclassic said:


> Good morning explod.  This thread has gone very quiet. mmm. No commentary on events influencing pog that's all. Calm before storm?
> rgds.




As far as gold is concerned we are in a consolidating sideways pattern and early in the week is usually uneventfull as many await the next blast from Wall Street so to speak.

Am watching the US dollar weakness and it shows signs of falling through some support at about 73.5 which will be bullish for the metal if this plays out later in the week.

Interesting that Wall Street rallied as the storm Irene proved to be less than forcast.  Great fundamentals indeed.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> Onshore oil is usually $8 a barrel it is selling for about $90. Even tar sand oil which is one of the most expensive ways to come by oil is about $40 a barrel which is slightly better than your ratio on silver.
> 
> Bhp's iron ore is operating on a 75% profit margin, meaning the cost of production is only 25% of the sale price, and that is a commodity well off it's highs.
> 
> Infact most of bhp's commodities a working on far better ratios than the one you mentioned,




The majority of silver is bought up as a byproduct, Silver Wheaton is sourcing much of its silver in the $3 range on long term contracts with byproduct producers!!!! The multiple on the majority of silver product well exceeds most anything else. Primary silver mines are another thing altogether but they are in the minority. So what numbers do you want to use? Saying that about silver is every bit as valid as quoting onshore lifting costs for oil, which by no means accounts for anywhere near the total cost of a barrel of oil! We can all cherry pick numbers!!!!

What a pointless discussion, really you are just look for stuff to strike against PM's.

Face it, they are ten years into a bull market and have another ten or so to go... easily. No gambling, the fundamentals underpinning the worlds monetary system guarantee it and that is simply because gold is the best internationally recognized form of money that is no one else's debt.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Interesting that Wall Street rallied as the storm Irene proved to be less than forcast.  Great fundamentals indeed.




Much of the DOW is not in bad shape and makes good money overseas, in comparison to the US government some of their fundamentals are excellent... all bar the fact they can't print money. I'd not be writing off "Wall Street in one fell swoop.... it is not that simple, there are many strong companies with good balance sheets and cash on hand.


----------



## davede

Have been long gold for a while but sold out on the 22nd Aug (lucky break).

Looking for the right time to get back in.

Not so good with the technicals though (more of a macro style man).

Anyone able to post a bit of a technical analysis? Maybe a few charts? And what may signal a good entry point?


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> The majority of silver is bought up as a byproduct, Silver Wheaton is sourcing much of its silver in the $3 range on long term contracts with byproduct producers!!!! The multiple on the majority of silver product well exceeds most anything else. Primary silver mines are another thing altogether but they are in the minority. So what numbers do you want to use? Saying that about silver is every bit as valid as quoting onshore lifting costs for oil, which by no means accounts for anywhere near easily. No gambling, the fundamentals underpinning the worlds monetary system guarantee it and that is simply because gold is the best internationally recognized form of money that is no one else's debt.




If I was trying to cherry pick numbers I would have used $1 a barrel for Saudi oil. 

Either way, it was explod who brought up production costs of silver, I was just commenting that the figures he provided were not fantastic.

Time will tell if you are right about golds bull run, i suspect you are wrong but that's just my opinion,


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> If I was trying to cherry pick numbers I would have used $1 a barrel for Saudi oil.
> 
> Either way, it was explod who brought up production costs of silver, I was just commenting that the figures he provided were not fantastic.
> 
> Time will tell if you are right about golds bull run, i suspect you are wrong but that's just my opinion,




Unfortunately you seem to lead with your jaw.

Lets first talk of the term "my opinion".  Some of us even say on ASF "in my humble opinion". IMHO

It is spelt out clearly because most of us are not financial advisers (it is an offence to give financial advice if not qualified) but I can assure you we also are sensitive to the fact that there are newcomers to ASF every day and do not want to make statments that will lead people astray.  So even at opinion level we make sure that our statements are as true as they can be and are backed up by *facts* ie, fundamentals that can be understood and also many with good charts with trend lines etc including intelligent observations in support of any asertions made.  We also tread lightly with newcomers to give them a go to speak up, but you take the cake.

No one knows where gold will end up really.  All we can go by is its strong trend and the fact that the fundamental reasons for this strong trend have been well identified and are restated many times over.  It is often pointed out that if you want to learn about gold it is well worth reading this thread from the begining, a big task now but a better book would be hard to find.

On your asserted experience.   From what I have found there are some very intelligent and time worn investers, ex bankers and retired from the finance industry etc.  I gave you a rant on myself the other day but in addition to that realise that my own instincts we fed 60 years ago when my Dad, had a farm in Western Victoria, dragged me around just about every sale yard from Warnambool to Wagga.  He would buy and sell with the seasons and did well but as well as enjoying a rasberry beside him at some of the hotels I learnt a great deal from the beginning.  One of my Brothers went on to become a stock agent and auctioneer.   My Uncle was a real estate agent for over forty years on the Gold Coast and made millions.  So I learnt a bit from them.  It did not stop me from nearly going broke a few years back which again was a blessing in retrospect as I take great care in what I do and *say* for all concerned.  Sure we have a bit of a yabba yabba on the chat threads but that is just a bit of stirring and fun for the dull hours sometimes.

So we did not come down in the last shower but we do not assert ourselves to your extent in such an unproffessional manner.

On silver, its worth you having a look at the silver thread properly and bring yourself right up to speed on this.  I had a bit to say on this thread awhile back which you pick on but have another look at what is being said *objectively*.

On gold, up $40 overnight, as I thought would happen in a statement here last week.  It was not a prediction but an observation based on the past behaviour of the markets over the last 10 years and the noise last week that was coming out of Wall Street.  *And I stated those things*.

Have a good day.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Your full of yourself explod, you act like your opinions are conservative rational opinions but they are not, it is your opinion and wild projections that you put out there as fact that is dangerous and set to mislead the new comers.

I would think that this thread needs a balance counter weight against all the pie in they sky bullish comments written by you and the other gold bugs.

By the way, I have not made any comment here about silver, I am not sure why people keep bringing up silver in regards to my comments on gold. The only time I compared anything to silver was when I said the profit margin on the exampl you gave was not great.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Your full of yourself explod, you act like your opinions are conservative rational opinions but they are not, it is your opinion and wild projections that you put out there as fact that is dangerous and set to mislead the new comers.




Okay.  

You have still not qualified your reasons, fundamentally and/or technically as to why you do not think gold going forward is a good invbestment.

Would you point out some of my wild prejections?


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> Would you point out some of my wild prejections?






explod said:


> It is not hard to work out as the price of gold has gone up an average of 30% per year since 2001.  And as the monetisation of debt looks to continue so will the price of gold go up on its current trend.
> 
> We have had a fair bit of it this year so I am calling US$2,200 2011
> 
> 2012 about $2,900
> 2013  "   "    3,900
> 
> roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.
> 
> And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.




They very fact that you seem to believe that this pretty metal that produces nothing, an is already 6 times higher in price than it was 10 years ago will continue to increase in value by 30%pa is crazy to me.

As I said earlier, All Bull markets end Badly. Gold will be no different. I am not making any predictions as to timings, But eventually this commodity which has been pushed up in value because of fear will be sold down, and money will flow back to those assets that actually produce, and when that happens it will be hard and fast.

Now, call me crazy, But I believe it is better to "Buy low, sell high" rather than the reverse. And many asset classes are on sale at the moment which will produce returns for many years into the future, dealing in current terms no matter what happens to the currency in the mean time.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> They very fact that you seem to believe that this pretty metal that produces nothing, an is already 6 times higher in price than it was 10 years ago will continue to increase in value by 30%pa is crazy to me.
> 
> As I said earlier, All Bull markets end Badly. Gold will be no different. I am not making any predictions as to timings, But eventually this commodity which has been pushed up in value because of fear will be sold down, and money will flow back to those assets that actually produce, and when that happens it will be hard and fast.
> 
> Now, call me crazy, But I believe it is better to "Buy low, sell high" rather than the reverse. And many asset classes are on sale at the moment which will produce returns for many years into the future, dealing in current terms no matter what happens to the currency in the mean time.




Interesting.  Hardly any rank and file invetors out there yet know that gold exists and you are trying to call it at the peak and risky.   It has remained above the 200 day trailing average since the end of 09 and you say it is risky.  Paper money is losing its value by the day and gold which *has *been money for 5,000 years *is risky.*

Comorn champ, give me some good reasons.  

Sell high for sure but inflation adjusted since the average of gold in 1980, $500 inflation adjusted, is conservatively around $3,500 an ounce and some pundits who I do not take much notice of call it much higher.

Sure there is food and other essentials and we keep note of those things but there are no real strong trends at the moment.  Rare earths is one and so is energy but the trends are nothing like that of gold nor at the moment are the fundamentals.

Some real reasons and facts?


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> 1, Interesting.  Hardly any rank and file invetors out there yet know that gold exists and you are trying to call it at the peak and risky.
> 
> 2, It has remained above the 200 day trailing average since the end of 09 and you say it is risky.
> 
> 3, Paper money is losing its value by the day and
> 
> 4, gold which *has *been money for 5,000 years *is risky.*
> 
> 5, Sell high for sure but inflation adjusted since the average of gold in 1980, $500 inflation adjusted, is conservatively around $3,500 an ounce.
> 
> 6, Sure there is food and other essentials and we keep note of those things but there are no real strong trends at the moment.  Rare earths is one and so is energy but the trends are nothing like that of gold nor at the moment are the fundamentals.




1, Gee you don't give the investing public much credit, I think you are wrong, everybody knows about gold, everybody.

2, Yes, I do say it's risky. 

3, Who cares, Have I ever said that it doesn't, after factoring in interest though it is not losing value.

4, yes, no matter how good the asset nothing is worth an infinate price, and buying at historical highpoints leads to disaster, especially when their is no income to save you.

5, thats my point, in 1980 gold was in a bubble and then crashed and took nearly 3 decades to get back to that level. you could of bought gold cheaper in 2000 than you could in 1979, and that was after earning interest on those paper dollars for 20 years.

6, and that doesn't ring alarm bells for you,


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, Gee you don't give the investing public much credit, I think you are wrong, everybody knows about gold, everybody.
> 
> 2, Yes, I do say it's risky.
> 
> 3, Who cares, Have I ever said that it doesn't, after factoring in interest though it is not losing value.
> 
> 4, yes, no matter how good the asset nothing is worth an infinate price, and buying at historical highpoints leads to disaster, especially when their is no income to save you.
> 
> 5, thats my point, in 1980 gold was in a bubble and then crashed and took nearly 3 decades to get back to that level. you could of bought gold cheaper in 2000 than you could in 1979, and that was after earning interest on those paper dollars for 20 years.
> 
> 6, and that doesn't ring alarm bells for you,




As was said in the film Cool Hand Luke "some people ya just cannt reach"

Let us watch wait and see.

nb.  and the past is not a guide to the future.  Only the trend is of value whilst it lasts because no one knows the future we can only factor in all the factors.

Still no supportive facts champ


----------



## Tysonboss1

Please explod,

Can you explain with this chart to me with all you wisdom. And maybe give some indication as to what a bubble would look like, because this chart looks like every other bubble chart i have seen. note the gold price has gone even higher since this chart, which would make the chart look even more bubbly.





It actually looks similar to this one from the all ords, you can see they both had previous bull markets that have ended badly.




But it's ok, I am sure it's different this time.


----------



## explod

In 1980 the line went straight up.  No bubble yet.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1. Can you explain with this chart to me with all you wisdom. And maybe give some indication as to what a bubble would look like, because this chart looks like every other bubble chart i have seen. note the gold price has gone even higher since this chart, which would make the chart look even more bubbly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2. It actually looks similar to this one from the all ords, you can see they both had previous bull markets that have ended badly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But it's ok, I am sure it's different this time.




1. What goes up must come down. Of course it's gonna come down (eventually) If you're going to avoid entering these things because it's eventually going to come back down - well you're potentially missing out on profit in my humble opinion.

2. You are posting up an example of one of the worst financial depressions in history (the GFC) - this is a poor example.

Finally, gold is not parabolic yet. It's had a nice healthy advance.


----------



## RandR

Billyb said:


> 2. You are posting up an example of one of the worst financial depressions in history (the GFC) - this is a poor example.




Youve got to be kidding ? the GFC is and hasnt yet been what I would call a 'depression' in Aus. Let alone in history.



> , Interesting. Hardly any rank and file invetors out there yet know that gold exists and you are trying to call it at the peak and risky.




Lol, how many rank and file investors do you talk to ? Considering how long the likes of robert kiyosaki have been pumping gold for id say the rank and file are more then aware if not already on board.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> 1. What goes up must come down. Of course it's gonna come down (eventually) If you're going to avoid entering these things because it's eventually going to come back down - well you're potentially missing out on profit in my humble opinion.
> 
> 2. You are posting up an example of one of the worst financial depressions in history (the GFC) - this is a poor example.
> 
> Finally, gold is not parabolic yet.
> 
> 3, It's had a nice healthy advance.




1, "Eventually" look at the gold chart from it's first peak, that was a very steep decline, and that was without the modern mouse click dump we can see today. In my humble opinion Buying somthing just because it has gone up is as dumb as selling something just because it has gone down.

2, "Depression", It wasn't even the worst recession we have had, 

3, I wouldn't call it healthy,


----------



## Billyb

RandR said:


> Youve got to be kidding ? the GFC is and hasnt yet been what I would call a 'depression' in Aus. Let alone in history.




I was referring to the period of time rather than the location. Crisis would have been a better word than depression, but it really doesn't change the point. Some people just like to pick a bone for the sake of picking a bone, don't they.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> In 1980 the line went straight up.  No bubble yet.




:iamwithst Ha, nice try.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, "Eventually" look at the gold chart from it's first peak, that was a very steep decline, and that was without the modern mouse click dump we can see today. In my humble opinion Buying somthing just because it has gone up is as dumb as selling something just because it has gone down.
> 
> 2, "Depression", It wasn't even the worst recession we have had,
> 
> 3, I wouldn't call it healthy,




1. If mouse clicking had anything to do with it than it would have an even STEEPER INCLINE than the first peak!!! You can't have your cake and eat it too! 

2. See above. The point is that the All Ords went down because of one of the greatest global financial crises we've ever had/have - everything was going down at that time. If you wanna call that a bubble then you might as well say almost everything was in a bubble. 

3. You probably wouldn't have called it healthy at $1200 either. 

4. Do you know why bubbles burst? Because of some fundamental reason. You call yourself a fundamental investor but I don't see you coming up with ANY fundamental reason for why it is gonna pop soon, other than 'the graph looks that way'.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> I was referring to the period of time rather than the location. Crisis would have been a better word than depression, but it really doesn't change the point. Some people just like to pick a bone for the sake of picking a bone, don't they.




Heres the thing, don't think of it as a crisis or a freak event that may not happen again. A

s long as humans are involved there will always be bull markets followed by corrections, the bigger and badder the bull the more savage the bear to the point it becomes not a correction but a crash.

It's just the way it is, now the current bull market in gold is pretty big, history says the bear will be pretty big, and as always the bull comes up the stairs the bear goes out window, don't bank on being able to make a level headed exit at the top.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1. Heres the thing, don't think of it as a crisis or a freak event that may not happen again. A
> 
> 
> 2. It's just the way it is, now the current bull market in gold is pretty big, history says the bear will be pretty big, and as always the bull comes up the stairs the bear goes out window,
> 
> 3. don't bank on being able to make a level headed exit at the top.




1. It could still be happening, although for slightly different reasons

2. Of course it will correct significantly - ONE day- but unlike you I do  not try and predict the future when it's an impossible thing to do. I am not saying "It is going to crash SOON". I am instead saying 'the trend looks strong, the fundamentals suggest it will continue to stay strong" and if my analysis suggests the trend is reversing then I'm out. I wait for confirmation that the trend is reversed instead of just assuming that it's going to reverse tomorrow, which, figuratively speaking, is what you're doing. 

3. of course not, you can't pick a top - *YOU *ARE the one who thinks he has predicted the top!!


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> 1, If you wanna call that a bubble then you might as well say almost everything was in a bubble.
> 
> 2. You probably wouldn't have called it healthy at $1200 either.
> 
> 3. Do you know why bubbles burst? Because of some fundamental reason. You call yourself a fundamental investor but I don't see you coming up with ANY fundamental reason for why it is gonna pop soon, other than 'the graph looks that way'.




1, just about everything was overvalued in the stockmarket just prior to the GFC, Companies were selling a huge multiples to their earnings, some of the biggest names were selling at over 25 times annual earnings, and those earnings were based on a boom year.

2, to be honest it didn't alarm me in the way $1950 does, I think we will see $1200 gold again, probably even $800 gold.

3, Do you know what makes sustainable growth? Fundamental reason, and their is no longterm fundamental reason for gold's growth to be sustained. It will POP, it is not a matter of if, but when.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, "Eventually" look at the gold chart from it's first peak, that was a very steep decline, and that was without the modern mouse click dump we can see today. In my humble opinion Buying somthing just because it has gone up is as dumb as selling something just because it has gone down.
> 
> 2, "Depression", It wasn't even the worst recession we have had,
> 
> 3, I wouldn't call it healthy,




We discussed this very point a week or so back, the decline was not as rapid as the ascent if you look close and as I said then any chartist worth his salt could have got caught in the first drop but would have exited with a good profit during the second.  It was on the recent action *at that time *a drop of some 50%

You are clutching at straws in my view as the gold rise at this time, in spite of how it looks on the long term chart is still gradual.   It is just that the shift this time is so very great overall that the older part of the chart hardly relates.  

But surely you can see that the former rise at the end was nearly a straight line up, (in fact it went from $400 to $800 in just four days.  The current period is still just a steep hill.   So a blow off like that would be a ratchet in a few days to $3,500.  We are awhile off from that and you could rightly say, maybe it is different this time.  But if that does happen I will be ready to exit on such a rise immediately.

And in this I am not making projections or forcasts.  I do not know I can only follow after the action.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> 2. the fundamentals suggest it will continue to stay strong"
> 
> 3. of course not, you can't pick a top - *YOU *ARE the one who thinks he has predicted the top!!




Care to name some of those fundamental reasons,

I have said multiple times I am not predicting the top, and I don't know how high it will continue to boom.

But unlike you I see the fact that I can't predict the top as a reason not to get on considering it can happen at any time, I would much rather buy an asset at a fair price outside of bubble conditions.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> We discussed this very point a week or so back, the decline was not as rapid as the ascent if you look close and as I said then any chartist worth his salt could have got caught in the first drop but would have exited with a good profit during the second. .




No they sit there like you and say it's just a small correction and the next rally is only months away.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, Do you know what makes sustainable growth? Fundamental reason, and their is no longterm fundamental reason for gold's growth to be sustained. It will POP, it is not a matter of if, but when.




My question to you is what fundamental reason has caused gold to rise from $400 to $1600 over 10 years - which I'm sure you would classify as 'sustainable growth'. I think you will find there must a be a reason for gold to have maintained that sustainable growth for so long, and that reason is still there today.


----------



## explod

Billyb said:


> My question to you is what fundamental reason has caused gold to rise from $400 to $1600. I think you will find there must a be a reason for gold to have done that, and that reason is still there today.




It is a mirror image of the fall in value of the US dollar.   I am not able to post charts from my puter but if you check that is what you will see.   It is all about the tangible/ or lack of value in money.  And as helecopter Ben keeps printing so will gold continue to rise and the sentiment for it goes with other currencies too.

I kow it sounds too simple, *but it is*


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> No they sit there like you and say it's just a small correction and the next rally is only months away.




If there was a correction of 50% I can assure you I would not be sitting there.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> My question to you is what fundamental reason has caused gold to rise from $400 to $1600 over 10 years - which I'm sure you would classify as 'sustainable growth'. I think you will find there must a be a reason for gold to have maintained that sustainable growth for so long, and that reason is still there today.




No, in no way would I class that as sustainable growth. Even the best growth businesses, in the best industries, with the best work force would not beable to sustain a growth rate of 30%pa

And if a growing business can't sustain that growth what makes you think a bar of gold can.  

I mean a business can actually grow, a gold bar does not.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> It is a mirror image of the fall in value of the US dollar.   I am not able to post charts from my puter but if you check that is what you will see.   It is all about the tangible/ or lack of value in money.  And as helecopter Ben keeps printing so will gold continue to rise and the sentiment for it goes with other currencies too.
> 
> I kow it sounds too simple, *but it is*




The USA dollar has not fallen to the extent of the gold rise, no where near it. 

And the chart is in Australian dollars anyway, so it kinda blows your little conspiracy theory out the water, infect you would have to wait for decades for inflation to catch up.


----------



## explod

http://www.chartingstocks.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/US_dollar.png

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html

If we look at the last 10 years on the two charts we see gold and the US dollar index going in the opposite directions.  Almost like the reflection of a hill in the water.

And "conspiracy theory":  dah


----------



## Mr Z

You can in no way connect the value of gold to any idea of "sustainable growth" in the sense that a company achieves. That is comparing chalk with cheese!

Gold will continue to rise in value until our monetary system is fixed (well more like patched) and lower risk returns that exceed the real rate of monetary inflation are available. Up until that point gold will appreciate.

FWIW I believe that although the Americans started this bonfire but that the Asians will put it out. Look for the emergence of a real contender for the role of world reserve currency backed by a country with an economy that can cash the cheques it is writing and that can and does return a real positive interest rate. Then you will have the conditions to stop this gold bull. The US can't do it this time, there will not be another Volcker, there instead will be financial repression. Study that concept and you may start to get this gold bull market, which, by the way, has 5 figure USD gold written all over it.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> The USA dollar has not fallen to the extent of the gold rise, no where near it.




How can you expect a linear relationship between two forms of money that vary significantly in the volume available? To expect that is childishly simplistic, gold will rise far more that the US will fall. 

The other issue is that this is not all about the USD anymore, this is about the global monetary system. That fact puts this gold bull market on steroids! Having said that we are probably working our way toward an intermission in golds progress but in 2013 I would expect things to warm up significantly.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> How can you expect a linear relationship between two forms of money that vary significantly in the volume available? To expect that is childishly simplistic, gold will rise far more that the US will fall.
> 
> The other issue is that this is not all about the USD anymore, this is about the global monetary system. That fact puts this gold bull market on steroids! Having said that we are probably working our way toward an intermission in golds progress but in 2013 I would expect things to warm up significantly.




It is just the overall long term trend my friend, and yes it is simple.

Gold is a rare resource and for some reason people will continue to flock to it as they have for 5000 years as solid tangible money.

And the markets as well as gold is in a state of pause the last week.  Could it be a calm before the storm.  Dont' know but we shall see.

No conspiracy here.


----------



## jancha

Dont know about anyone else but i'm enjoying this thread.
Probably a silly question fellas but hyporthetically what would happen to the price of Gold if say Greece Portugal and others alike happen to sell off their gold reserves at the current gold price to lessen their debt? Could that be a possiblity and if so would it drive the gold price down?


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> It is just the overall long term trend my friend, and yes it is simple.
> 
> Gold is a rare resource and for some reason people will continue to flock to it as they have for 5000 years as solid tangible money.
> 
> And the markets as well as gold is in a state of pause the last week.  Could it be a calm before the storm.  Dont' know but we shall see.
> 
> No conspiracy here.




Mincing my meaning AGAIN... the relationship between the value of gold and the value of the USD is not a 'simple' linear relationship EVEN when it is the dominant force in setting the price of gold. Due to the state that the worlds currecny systems have gotten themselves in it is no longer the USD that is THE dominant force driving gold. That honor is now shared between the USD and the Euro! 

Once you get that into your head you will understand why it is possible for the USD and gold to rally together and fall together. There is nothing simple about these relationships anymore, at a minimum we have a four cornered fight. If you persist, as some do, in defining Golds price action solely in terms of the USD you will end up being wrong footed.


----------



## Mr Z

jancha said:


> Dont know about anyone else but i'm enjoying this thread.
> Probably a silly question fellas but hyporthetically what would happen to the price of Gold if say Greece Portugal and others alike happen to sell off their gold reserves at the current gold price to lessen their debt? Could that be a possiblity and if so would it drive the gold price down?




You would probably get a short term reaction BUT countries like China and India are actively increasing gold as a % of foreign reserves. The short answer is that there are ready customers for big lots of gold that can be acquired without driving the market higher. China would relish such an opportunity, India has already availed itself of one such opportunity. However I have no doubt that it would be spun negative for gold and short sold hard so as to shake the weak hands loose. 

It would be temporary!


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Mincing my meaning AGAIN... the relationship between the value of gold and the value of the USD is not a 'simple' linear relationship EVEN when it is the dominant force in setting the price of gold. Due to the state that the worlds currecny systems have gotten themselves in it is no longer the USD that is THE dominant force driving gold. That honor is now shared between the USD and the Euro!
> 
> Once you get that into your head you will understand why it is possible for the USD and gold to rally together and fall together. There is nothing simple about these relationships anymore, at a minimum we have a four cornered fight. If you persist, as some do, in defining Golds price action solely in terms of the USD you will end up being wrong footed.




I do understand that Mr Z.   The correlation I am talking about was more pre 09.  However there are so many overall factors (as you point out) now, that one either has to go all the way, or for mine, maintain a grasp of the larger picture for the long term.

The strong correlation between the US$ index and the gold price broke at around the time the US rating agencies began to attack the Pigs.   However thier own back yard has not improved in that time but attention has been deflected away to some extent for awhile. 

The chart for gold and the sentiment tells me at this time to keep holding.


----------



## notting

If you were holding against Euro's you might be OK for the moment.


----------



## Tysonboss1

This has been what is happening in the gold market for a while.

I short parable

_Once upon a time a man told a small village, “I will buy monkeys for $10 each.”

Since there were many monkeys in the forest, the villagers caught them and sold them to the man.

As the supply of monkeys diminished, the villagers’ efforts slowed, so the man offered them $20 each.

They renewed their efforts but the supply of monkeys diminished further, so he increased his price to $25.

Soon no one could even find a monkey in the forest.

The man increased his price to $50, but announced, “Since I must go to the city on business, I authorize my assistant to buy monkeys on my behalf.”

As soon as his boss was gone, the assistant told the villagers, “My boss has collected lots of monkeys. I’ll sell them to you for $35 and then, when he returns, you can sell them to him for $50.”

The villagers rounded up all the money they could and bought as many monkeys as possible. Then they had monkeys everywhere…

… but they never saw the man or his assistant again._


----------



## disarray

yeah ok tyson we get the point mate. gold is in a bubble. it's not a value investment. you know better than everyone else. anyone who invests in gold is an idiot. ben graham is proud of you.

now you're beginning to harp on. you sure you didn't take a wrong turn and end up here when you meant to go to this thread?

sunshine and lollipops and ego and my opinion is better than your opinion etc. etc.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> This has been what is happening in the gold market for a while.
> 
> I short parable
> 
> _Once upon a time a man told a small village, “I will buy monkeys for $10 each.”
> 
> Since there were many monkeys in the forest, the villagers caught them and sold them to the man.
> 
> As the supply of monkeys diminished, the villagers’ efforts slowed, so the man offered them $20 each.
> 
> They renewed their efforts but the supply of monkeys diminished further, so he increased his price to $25.
> 
> Soon no one could even find a monkey in the forest.
> 
> The man increased his price to $50, but announced, “Since I must go to the city on business, I authorize my assistant to buy monkeys on my behalf.”
> 
> As soon as his boss was gone, the assistant told the villagers, “My boss has collected lots of monkeys. I’ll sell them to you for $35 and then, when he returns, you can sell them to him for $50.”
> 
> The villagers rounded up all the money they could and bought as many monkeys as possible. Then they had monkeys everywhere…
> 
> … but they never saw the man or his assistant again._




Ya got nuthin when you resort to this sort of tripe LOL 

Hey mods! Where I come from this is called baiting.


----------



## awg

http://www.bullionvault.com/GoldWhereToNow/Part1.html

I found this presentation to be clear, and would recomend to anyone considering or invested in gold.

There is a downloadable spreadsheet attached to part 5, he presents his valuation methods, does something to address fundamentalist objections to gold as an investment

I would be interested to hear comment from others regarding his valuation methodology and assumptions, especially critque.

The 5 part presentation goes for 1 hour.

I consider this to be the shortest adequate information I could give someone as to why gold has upside option.

(the link should be to the start of part 1)


----------



## Edwood

nice little short squeeze this evening, breaking over resistance.  Has it got the legs to get us to 2000?  possible but doubt it


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A good effort effort there comrades - the pretend market down 2.5% and the real market up by 4%!




A nice slingshot from the exchange rate differential too. I think the possible gold price appreciation in $AU terms from a fall in the $USD/$AU rate will play an important part soon, as I believe the $AU is substantially overbought on the China story, which has also just passed peak returns from the various stimulis packages of the last 3 years, ie at stall or even contraction speed.

So, will a tanking Chinese economy bring it's citizens out as net sellers if the going gets tough, or actually buy gold even more as the renminbi will be shown up as no better than any other fiat value exchange?

Something to ponder this fine day........


----------



## RandR

awg said:


> http://www.bullionvault.com/GoldWhereToNow/Part1.html
> 
> I found this presentation to be clear, and would recomend to anyone considering or invested in gold.




Is somebody that owns a business called 'bullionvault' really going to give you nonbiased and impartial advice about gold bullion ? 

Would you buy QR National because of the slick ipo videos and the information they supplied about why QRN has upside ?


----------



## Mr Z

RandR said:


> Is somebody that owns a business called 'bullionvault' really going to give you nonbiased and impartial advice about gold bullion ?
> 
> Would you buy QR National because of the slick ipo videos and the information they supplied about why QRN has upside ?




Is anyone who is not in the gold business going to give you "going to give you nonbiased and impartial advice about gold bullion" ---> The answer is no. The financial industry as a whole makes very little out of gold and therefore HATES it and hates to see money going in that direction.

It is up to you to do the work and decide if you are being told the truth or sold a line.

FWIW these guys have sung the same tune since gold was $2xx --> you could have said the same about them then. However they where right and still are, but then you will have to do the work to convince yourself of that.


----------



## awg

RandR said:


> Is somebody that owns a business called 'bullionvault' really going to give you nonbiased and impartial advice about gold bullion ?




No, I thought about disclaiming that, but thought it was too obvious.

However I consider his Part 5 valuation methodology very robust fundamentally.
It is risk-based acturial and factors in bias (imo)



RandR said:


> Would you buy QR National because of the slick ipo videos and the information they supplied about why QRN has upside ?




Well I did consider it, but unfortunately not (its been a real good outperformer hasnt it?)

As you may see, what he is saying in brutally short summary, is that gold does not perform well as an investment anytime the "economy" is working well, but shows how and under what circumstances it may increase in value


----------



## Wysiwyg

Was trading goldies today and noticed they closed down which I interpreted as a signal that a new high on spot gold will not be forth coming in the near term. Exited on price action so am looking for confirmation this week.


----------



## Wysiwyg

New high on gold spot now. Come on two thousand and more. (holding a goldy )


----------



## Edwood

4hr chart looking a tad toppy + plenty of divergence, but daily still got lots of room to move


----------



## Edwood

guess that'll be the divergence played out then.  Nice little move that one!


----------



## Kauri

Big moves .. 
 Apparently the gnomes have pointed thier hats at the EURO cross .

*BREAKING NEWS*

Swiss franc drops sharply after national bank sets new price target of SFr1.20 against the euro  (from Fin Times.
Cheers
......  Kauri


----------



## explod

Nice little US$60 drop there over the last hour with a $49 recovery since.

If gold was at $200 this then would have been merely a $6 correction on the same scale.

Volatility (or the perception of it) will be the name of the game now.

Of course those who do think they are the masters of controlling things would not have liked the sharp rise in the gold price Friday whilst the markets were tanking.  Have not seen the huge strength of the HUI in the face of a falling Dow before either.

Interesting times indeed.


----------



## Edwood

Cheers Kauri, great how charts can give an indication of a move before the event.

On the volatility front Explod I think unfortunately for gold bugs that most of the volatility will have a downward bias, we're heading down the same path as Silver.  Just looking at the weekly & monthly charts its plain to see this is all going to end in tears


----------



## Kauri

In EW it *MIGHT* be a middy type of wave 4 in a bigger unfolding wave 3 ??  or something.
 Cheers
.... Kauri


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> Cheers Kauri, great how charts can give an indication of a move before the event.
> 
> On the volatility front Explod I think unfortunately for gold bugs that most of the volatility will have a downward bias, we're heading down the same path as Silver.  Just looking at the weekly & monthly charts its plain to see this is all going to end in tears




Have another look.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb.html

http://www.jsmineset.com/2010/10/01/monthly-gold-and-silver-charts-from-trader-dan/

Just the ongoing trend.  Cant' see any sign of a correction but a lot prophets have been calling for it for 10 years, still waiting.  

However we shall see.


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> In EW it *MIGHT* be a middy type of wave 4 in a bigger unfolding wave 3 ??  or something.
> Cheers
> .... Kauri




or possibly we've just completed B up with C down to come, but think I prefer yours looking at the PA again


----------



## explod

Dow down HUI up.  Gold and silver holding in a good consolidation range.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Golds alternatives, fiat currencies, continue to self destruct, this time the once mighty Swiss Franc has succumbed to pressure with the SNB signing it's death warrant in their effort at competitive currency devaluation?

Things are getting mighty wobbly in fiat land.

Meanwhile, other practical alternatives to the USD. The far more valuable alternative to USD's that 45 million Americans rely on to exist, food stamps, look like being accepted at fast food outlets now.

20% of Americans now live below the poverty line! 

And then there was one store of wealth left standing............


----------



## Edwood

appears it was a B then Kauri, shorts squeezing higher. Loads of divergence on the daily too, not a great look for gold at this point, will need some 'real' buyers to step up


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Edwood said:


> appears it was a B then Kauri, shorts squeezing higher. Loads of divergence on the daily too, not a great look for gold at this point, will need some 'real' buyers to step up




I guess even gold bugs were getting a bit nervous at the latest surge ie $300 in 30 days, but I will be a 'real' buyer when the price is right ie several hundred lower? Hopefully we get a decent pullback, and a surge in the $AU/$USD to set things up nicely - short the hell out of the dollar and go long gold.......

The markets can only go so much higher on austerity plans (for Greece, Italy Belgium etc etc) written on paper, but putting the plans into practice is another story, almost impossibly so....just like the rumours of QE3 - if it hasn't worked twice before why will it work this time?

If debt caused the problem then how is more debt going to fix it??

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/209986/20110907/finally-a-gold-buying-opportunity.htm


----------



## Edwood

Uncle Festivus said:


> I guess even gold bugs were getting a bit nervous at the latest surge ie $300 in 30 days




yes have a right to be nervous as its not buying for fundamental reasons 

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1315318111.php

Gold's rise from $1,600 - the dramatic gold rally was caused by aggressive buying by the group of speculative traders which are classified as commercials by the CFTC. Many make the mistake of assuming that just because these traders are classified as commercials that means their trading is purely for legitimate hedging purposes. Nothing could be further from the truth, as the bulk of their trading is speculative in nature. Therefore, while it would be technically correct to say that the gold rally has been caused by speculative buying, most would assume that meant new buying of long positions by easily-identified speculators such as hedge funds and momentum traders. That is definitely not what has transpired in gold recently, as the “normal” hedge fund and technical fund speculators have been selling COMEX gold contracts, not buying them. Instead, the big COMEX gold speculative buyers have been the commercials who were previously heavily short. Correctly identifying the true speculators driving a market is a distinction that makes all the difference in the world.


----------



## explod

Edwood said:


> yes have a right to be nervous as its not buying for fundamental reasons
> 
> http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1315318111.php
> 
> Gold's rise from $1,600 - the dramatic gold rally was caused by aggressive buying by the group of speculative traders which are classified as commercials by the CFTC. Many make the mistake of assuming that just because these traders are classified as commercials that means their trading is purely for legitimate hedging purposes. Nothing could be further from the truth, as the bulk of their trading is speculative in nature. Therefore, while it would be technically correct to say that the gold rally has been caused by speculative buying, most would assume that meant new buying of long positions by easily-identified speculators such as hedge funds and momentum traders. That is definitely not what has transpired in gold recently, as the “normal” hedge fund and technical fund speculators have been selling COMEX gold contracts, not buying them. Instead, the big COMEX gold speculative buyers have been the commercials who were previously heavily short. Correctly identifying the true speculators driving a market is a distinction that makes all the difference in the world.




Yes the hedge funds play in paper contracts which have in fact a very diluted value against the physical metal itself.

The actual rise in gold is a result of people losing confidence in the value of paper money.

Gold output is not increasing but the demand for physical bars is.  Wonder hey.

As the paper ponzes continueto increase to overcome the increasing amounts to service the increasing debts so real gold will continue to rise against paper money and will therefore hold its real value

The little bit of flutter in the price now is no different in percentage terms as has been the case since 2002.


----------



## Mr Z

Whatever will Ted do with himself if the commercials stop punting the PM markets around? It has been 25 years or so now... the boy will be lost! He will have to find another career


----------



## Edwood

I guess Ted'll stick with his silver service :

Enjoying this volatility - you trading around your core positions Mr Z?

Guess you'll be hoping Italy doesn't get forced into tapping its large gold holding...


----------



## Ageo

Thought id chime in since most info on here is based on comex markets and not physical....

On the physical front demand is the most it has been since i can remember..... 

Personally i think even with a crash i still think $1500 AU is the baseline, the 1 good thing is thow is that with all this scrap being refined into bars i used to question (who are buying these up?) but with more public/institutional and central banks buying it should cover the excess in supply....

The only thing i fear is when you have the whole world saying "buy gold" when i hear that i sorta brace myself for rough things to come.

Interesting times indeed


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> I guess Ted'll stick with his silver service :
> 
> Enjoying this volatility - you trading around your core positions Mr Z?
> 
> Guess you'll be hoping Italy doesn't get forced into tapping its large gold holding...




Italy can't sell enough gold to make a difference... there are ready buyers for big blocks that can be obtained without driving price. China is very keen to upgrade its very low gold reserves, they can and will adsorb all of Italy's gold *IF* it where offered. India would be in line right behind them (possibly in front!)

No sweat there at all...


----------



## LostMyShirt

Mr Z said:


> Italy can't sell enough gold to make a difference... there are ready buyers for big blocks that can be obtained without driving price. China is very keen to upgrade its very low gold reserves, they can and will adsorb all of Italy's gold *IF* it where offered. India would be in line right behind them (possibly in front!)
> 
> No sweat there at all...




I am hearing quite a bit about China wanting to increase Gold reserves, however also hearing the odd supression theory as well. What do you think, Z?


----------



## Edwood

as 4th largest official sector holder of gold tho Italy could make a bit of a mess of this nice picture if they had to liquidate.  All ifs & maybes for sure but have to consider all possibilities especially in these merkets


----------



## explod

Good article on the gold bubble this morning from David Chapman of Goldseek.  Talks about the paper trade (derivatives) of gold too.

http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1315506903.php


----------



## RandR

Mr Z said:


> Italy can't sell enough gold to make a difference... there are ready buyers for big blocks that can be obtained without driving price. China is very keen to upgrade its very low gold reserves, they can and will adsorb all of Italy's gold *IF* it where offered. India would be in line right behind them (possibly in front!)
> 
> No sweat there at all...




But what happens if Italy sells some of that gold, to lessen its sovereign debt ? Would that not cause a fundamental shift in the capacity of gold to increase in value ? Italy holds 2451.8 tonnes of gold .... at $us1750 thats 56 million a tonne. If they sold only 100 tonnes to china, it could net them in the vicinity of 5 600 000 000. Which could make a not inconsiderable dent to the sovereign debt.

People that believe in US$5000 are betting on the collapse of the fiat monetary system. I think its a pretty bold bet, considering the desperation that people up top could use to ensure the survival of the euro or US dollar.


----------



## Mr Z

LostMyShirt said:


> I am hearing quite a bit about China wanting to increase Gold reserves, however also hearing the odd supression theory as well. What do you think, Z?




If China where to lift its gold reserves to "typical" the POG would go through the roof, we simply have not got the new supply to give them what they want/need at anywhere near todays price. As it is they are buying 100% of Chinese gold production which is why they are one of the largest gold importers despite being a top gold producer. The fact is that they would want to take advantage of any large, single price, parcel of gold available. Central banks understand what they are doing to paper currencies, they as a group have turned buyers, IMO it is actually the last thing Italy will do to solve their problem.... they know the value of the gold that they hold and will offer any and all paper solutions ahead of releasing it.

However.... any sale of gold between countries will be spun negative for gold and short sold. That is the game, it will be spun simply as a BIG gold sale in order to scare the masses and it will be combined with aggressive short selling. It will have a temporary negative effect until the fundamental reality that it is simply a back room transfer of assets between governments comes to bear.

This is the way is has always been with government gold sales, it either never sees the wider market or it has actually already effectively been sold via a leasing program and the 'sale' is just finalizing obligations between the parties involved. I believe Sprott actually wanted to get involved in one of the last 'gold sales' but was stone walled, any surprises there? No not really  The Italian gold is never likely to leave official hands, it will stay on the government side of the fence. In fact, despite China's undoubted willingness to buy any large lot they are unlikely to let it go to them, the last big lot went to India. 

It is a red herring for the uninitiated to chatter about.


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> as 4th largest official sector holder of gold tho Italy could make a bit of a mess of this nice picture if they had to liquidate.  All ifs & maybes for sure but have to consider all possibilities especially in these merkets]




With all due respect Edwood any "merket" that is seeing compounding growth will produce a chart that looks like that at any point you choose to chart it. That is the nature of the beast. Gold has been compounding at 20% PA in USD terms since the beginning of this bull market and god knows how many times since then charts like that have been used to point at the "bubble" that is due to explode.

Despite what you think the fundamentals actually support the idea that gold will achieve a MUCH higher price. No doubt it will correct along the way and that at some point we may see as much as a 50% correction, however betting on that correction appearing at this time of year is not trading with the wind at your back. Typically we get stronger from here until the New Year... it could be a very interesting ride this year


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> It will have a temporary negative effect until the fundamental reality that it is simply a back room transfer of assets between governments comes to bear.




It will also be timed for the most damage as per below....



LostMyShirt said:


> I am hearing quite a bit about China wanting  to increase Gold reserves, however also hearing the odd supression  theory as well. What do you think, Z?




They don't even try to hide it these days......from Zero Hedge.....



> _From Goldman Sachs_
> Coming back from vacation probably wasn’t such a good idea after   all….The gold market is clearly moving into a new dynamic from an   orderly market rally to a disorderly market rally. The strong feature of   the last 3 years was a relatively steady up move accompanied by   declining option vols. This gave encouragement to investors to   accumulate gold without a fear of dramatic price risk and from a risk   adjusted asset allocation perspective the relative merits of gold were   improving against other asset classes particularly for those that view   and compare gold against currencies. However since the beginning of   August the price spike has been accompanied by higher vols which have   accelerated again this week as 1 month reached mid 30s. There has been   some rather disturbing price action in the last 48 hrs creating   extremely challenging trading conditions.
> 
> After rallying  nearly 100 usd  last week from 1795 to 1895 with demand  coming from the  official sector and some leveraged players rebuilding  length following  the severe prior correction we traded to new all time  highs of 1922 on  Tuesday shortly before the Swiss Franc intervention.  The immediate  aftermath was in complete contradiction to prior recent  episodes of  intervention and what anyone would have expected. Instead of  spurring a  further gold price rally on the basis that it was one of the  few  remaining safe haven “currencies” we saw a 50 usd collapse in  minutes. *The  source of this flow seems hard to pin down with some  speculating over  whether  “authorities” were concerned about the signals  of an  accelerating gold price and its impact on other fragile markets. *Soon  after, much of the losses were recovered but the psychological  damage  had been done and there followed a series of liquidations from  within  the leverage space with gold closing down 50 usd on the day. This  was  then exacerbated by a near 60 usd flash crash within 2 minutes  during  the Asian session.
> 
> We have since traded down to 1795 yesterday  with talk of technical  damage (double tops etc) but recover to 1840  this morning. Despite the  fact that discretionary leverage positions  are significantly lighter  there is still heaviness of CTA type  positions that can be reduced.* However official sector activity,  and PWM is already using this latest  dip to re-accumulate and it may  be the case the market is already close  to clean positions at ever  higher prices.*
> 
> From a technical perspective minor  support comes in at 1795 with more  significant support at 1705. Above,  the double top area of 1920 takes on  much more significance.*  Despite the much higher vols we are happy to  own short dated 1-2 mth  high strikes more than flat price positions in  the current environment.*


----------



## Mr Z

RandR said:


> People that believe in US$5000 are betting on the collapse of the fiat monetary system. I think its a pretty bold bet, considering the desperation that people up top could use to ensure the survival of the euro or US dollar.




No I don't think you can assume that, we are entering into a financial repression which is the game that I think most all governments will have to play in order to reduce the real debt levels in the system with the least immediate impact. If they play this game in a paced and measured way, although they will cause all sorts of stresses, I think that they can get through it. The end game will likely see the issuance of new FIAT currencies and the entrenching of the Euro i.e. a deeper integration of the Euro zone in terms of its operation, even if they do lose some countries along the way.

The 70's gold bull produced a spike that would equate to the $5700 area today and that didn't break anything. I think we will see five figures depending on how well managed this situation is and how nicely China and the US play together.

No doubt it is all up for grabs but I'd not be making any assumptions that X gold price means Y has happened.

One thing is for sure... it is going to be interesting viewing


----------



## Mr Z

*Listen.*

Central bank gold buying and China's role in the gold market - Julian Phillips


----------



## adamim1

Good video on Gold and silver

http://www.goldmoney.com/video/naylor-leyland-turk-interview.html


----------



## aclassic

Thanks for the links chaps.
I find it all plausible and justified and I have invested in AU and pms but I can't help thinking that the grubby banks worldwide and the pollies will not find ways to suppress anything that doesn't suit them or loose grip of the spot dog's tail.
cheers


----------



## sinner

*Re: Listen.*



Mr Z said:


> Central bank gold buying and China's role in the gold market - Julian Phillips




Word on the street from Tokyo open

"Interbank reports China bid spot XAU $1815 into NY close, further bid interest expected from same $1725-$1750."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looking good - risk ON again as CB's pump the rhetoric & the printing machine.

Looking like a last chance dip to top up, just don't know where the entry will be???


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looking good - risk ON again as CB's pump the rhetoric & the printing machine.
> 
> Looking like a last chance dip to top up, just don't know where the entry will be???




Always hard to pick Uncle.   The rhetoric, blah blah and last weeks Moodies outlook took the US$ index to a high for the quarter but notice it struggling to hold and I would suggest the overnight drop would indicate that gold will soon be back on the move up again.

And from Dan Norcini this morning.

http://www.traderslog.com/quotes-charts/?sym=DX!&gclid=CID0tIWCoqYCFUaApAodpHmHng



> That brings us back to gold once again as it continues under assault from the Central Bankers who seemed deathly terrified of it making its way to the $2,000 mark. Ever since the takedown in the wee hours of the night as chronicled here    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/central-banks-waging-war-on-gold-at.html   gold has been on the defensive. That assault intensified near the $1880 level and it is that level which has thus far proven to have been unpenetrable.
> 
> Failing there, it subsequently retreated to a chart support level near $1840, which failed to stem its bleeding whereupon it then dropped to test the next support level near $1820. That too failed as did psychological support at round number $1800. It is now flirting with the next support region centered near the $1780 level. Failure there and it should try to test the level near $1755. Beyond this there is not a lot in the way of chart support until it gets down near the $1725 - $1730 region. We will have to see where the big buyers related to the upcoming festival seasons in Asia make their appearance to stem this latest setback in price.
> 
> Before gold can hope to get anything going to the upside it will have to recapture $1840.




A weekly close at this level could be bearish for awhile.

http://freeserv.dukascopy.com/chart...b381043d066574841a356d7dfa79c7879646d32707572

But again any further fall off in the US dollar at this point makes me believe we would be near to the current bottom and support level.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Listen.*



sinner said:


> Word on the street from Tokyo open
> 
> "Interbank reports China bid spot XAU $1815 into NY close, *further bid interest expected from same $1725-$1750.*"




50 DMA, yes that would be widely expected to produce support from most players. Given the time of year etc I would have those levels as a buy. 

 FWIW.

The commercials are getting very short here and there is talk of hedging coming back. I'm not sure that carries the weight it once did, the small specs are getting quite short, tops typically come about when they are very long.


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looking good - risk ON again as CB's pump the rhetoric & the printing machine.
> 
> Looking like a last chance dip to top up, just don't know where the entry will be???




I love the way that gold regularly flips between being refereed too as a "risk on" or "risk off" trade... it must been seen as the schizo metal out there in J6P land.

This whole risk on risk off concept has passed its use by IMO, I am not seeing that the market is that simple now that the government safe havens are being seen a little more clearly for what they really are. I would take a lump of copper over government paper returning 1/10 of sweet FA any day!

I love the 70's term for UST's ---> "Certificates of confiscation" :


----------



## Mr Z

Notice the degree of sync between the USD and gold has increased with the safe haven trade. Anyone willing to bet that Ben will shatter that in days to come?


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Notice the degree of sync between the USD and gold has increased with the safe haven trade. Anyone willing to bet that Ben will shatter that in days to come?




Well they could certainly do with a few more good dollars, but I think the chopper will be painting a careful mix of jargon.  However his short hand does seem to be unravelling.

ConfB]l[/B]idence is the big key with a very nervy market.


----------



## adamim1

Bens speeches are a mess and don't give out anything. He knows the market hangs off his every word and he uses it to his advantage.


----------



## Mr Z

Bloomberg: Gold-Backed Dollar Puts ‘Fair Value’ at $10,000 an Ounce


----------



## sinner

$10,000 is an awfully low price target, isn't it? :

(from fofoa.blogspot.com)


----------



## Mr Z

Actually yes that could be the case. Many years ago I did some relativity exhaustive "what if" exercises, they contained plenty of assumptions but nothing that wasn't without a % precedent... anyway I threw up a number in the 30K range as being entirely achievable if the Fed didn't grow a back bone and deal with this monster that they have created. At the time my 70's bull market based $5700 target was normally met with snorts of laughter so I only mentioned the 30K target once or twice in public. Saying 30K gold was liable to get you certified back then.... now it only sounds moderately loony. 

Suffice to say I think this has a looooooong away to go!

2K Silver anyone? 

*LOL!*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> I love the way that gold regularly flips between being refereed too as a "risk on" or "risk off" trade... it must been seen as the schizo metal out there in J6P land.



 Actually I was referring to equities etc as the risk ON trade.

I think the CB's might have finally got a loose act together to give the impression of saving the world, again, and will take the opportunity to take down gold while they can ie goldies due to take some profits off the table, short term overbought, noises from CB's about saving the EU etc etc

I note too that the gov has lowered it's deposit guarantee to $250,000, apparently because things are so good now ie Mission Accomplished! Should we take it as a contrary signal - a sign to start taking out cash? It's a surprisingly cumbersome thing to do actually and then store it safely, so looking to top up physical gold soon if we get a decent route - just cracked below $1800 this arvo......$1770 and falling!

Looks like a long on the DOW tonight........


----------



## adamim1

I'd be looking at anywhere between 1690-1720 for a an entry price into gold.


----------



## sinner

*Re: Listen.*



Mr Z said:


> 50 DMA, yes that would be widely expected to produce support from most players. Given the time of year etc I would have those levels as a buy.
> 
> FWIW.
> 
> The commercials are getting very short here and there is talk of hedging coming back. I'm not sure that carries the weight it once did, the small specs are getting quite short, tops typically come about when they are very long.




Interbank reports also indicate demand $1650ish if we fall through 1725, which is the level that was on everyones tongue a few weeks ago.

I think the Asian CBs are buying whatever dips can accomodate their size and don't really care about the support levels as a number. i.e. they haven't been buying the dip higher up because the dip at that level can't take their size - not because they are unwilling to buy there. 

These aren't forex rates, after all.


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> Actually I was referring to equities etc as the risk ON trade.




Well yes I got that, but the whole risk on risk off concept just groups a whole bunch of assets in either class. So when you say 'risk on' it implies many different types of positions can be taken under that strategy change. I was simply pointing out that gold seems to inhabit both camps depending on who is doing the yaking. Most other things are firmly considered one of the other, gold she has an image conflict in that area!


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Listen.*



sinner said:


> Interbank reports also indicate demand $1650ish if we fall through 1725, which is the level that was on everyones tongue a few weeks ago.
> 
> I think the Asian CBs are buying whatever dips can accomodate their size and don't really care about the support levels as a number. i.e. they haven't been buying the dip higher up because the dip at that level can't take their size - not because they are unwilling to buy there.
> 
> These aren't forex rates, after all.




Below 1725 I'd actually argue for 1600 as being the stronger technical level, although there is some support around 1650. After that the 200DMA which would probably be around 1550 by the time we'd hit it. I really don't expect that deep a pause at this time of year but lets wait and see what the 2 day long FOMC meeting gives us.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Well yes I got that, but the whole risk on risk off concept just groups a whole bunch of assets in either class. So when you say 'risk on' it implies many different types of positions can be taken under that strategy change. I was simply pointing out that gold seems to inhabit both camps depending on who is doing the yaking. Most other things are firmly considered one of the other, gold she has an image conflict in that area!




It is just another aspect of what we discribe in an overall uptrend like this as "the climbing of the wall of worry".

And gold in particular, as the banks and financial industry detest it as it pays no interest or trailing fees and Governments/Centrral Banks because it reflects weaknesses in fiat (paper) money.  *So you know who the press will support.*

With the recent fall in the gold price and the uncertainty I find it interesting that the favourite pm. stocks I follow, OGC, RSG and AYN are all up an average of 4% today, two on higher volume, and its a Friday.  Is this anticipation based on past behaviour, 

you bet.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> And gold in particular, as the banks and financial industry detest it as it pays no interest or trailing fees and Governments/Centrral Banks because it reflects weaknesses in fiat (paper) money.




Doctor explod once again giving his expert opinion to the uneducated masses as if it was fact

If CBs "detest" gold, why have they been net buyers for a solid year now? Why does the ECB happily and publicly mark its reserves to market every single quarter *since inception*, showing anyone who is willing to look the strength of gold against their paper?


(h/t FOFOA once again)



> Below 1725 I'd actually argue for 1600 as being the stronger technical level, although there is some support around 1650. After that the 200DMA which would probably be around 1550 by the time we'd hit it. I really don't expect that deep a pause at this time of year but lets wait and see what the 2 day long FOMC meeting gives us.




Let's not get our signals crossed here, you are talking technicals I am only relaying some market chatter about orders which are said to be waiting around before executing. 1600, 1650, whats $50 fiatscos between goldbugs?


----------



## Mr Z

Yeah, well  

I have to say I have heard more Gold = Risk Off in this little episode than I have heard before. The mindset is changing and the "risky asset" of gold is now being seen in changing light.

Yeah .... market chatter, hmmm, well I was just chucking my opinion of the chart out there, no mixed signals just more noise  Maybe we do the 200 DMA this time because the Bernanke pulls a rabbit out of the hat, I can't say I can imagine what would pull that off at this point but lets watch this space. I wonder just how creative the Fed can get? Mebe they will just paint the choppers pink!


----------



## explod

> If CBs "detest" gold, why have they been net buyers for a solid year now? Why does the ECB happily and publicly mark its reserves to market every single quarter since inception, showing anyone who is willing to look the strength of gold against their paper?




Some, not all are buying and taking possesion of physical gold.

For us dummies, Your Worship, it would be good for you to detail and qualify.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Some, not all are buying and taking possesion of physical gold.




lol right, the physical gold bug who buys paper shares, who says paper money is weak but still logs into his broker every day to check the paper price of his paper shares.



> For us dummies, Your Worship, it would be good for you to detail and qualify.




No idea what this means. I was asking you the question, perhaps it would be better if *you* detailed exactly why CBs who you claim hate gold are in fact net buyers and probably the last monetary entity on the planet holding gold as a reserve, because mutual funds, super funds, hedge funds, etc none of them hold gold in a vault. Only the CBs and a tiny portion of retail do this. Everyone else is buying shares in OGC 



> Yeah .... market chatter, hmmm, well I was just chucking my opinion of the chart out there, no mixed signals just more noise Maybe we do the 200 DMA this time because the Bernanke pulls a rabbit out of the hat, I can't say I can imagine what would pull that off at this point but lets watch this space. I wonder just how creative the Fed can get? Mebe they will just paint the choppers pink!




Nah I pretty much agreed with your original thought, the dip won't be so deep as that for this cycle. Bernanke has painted himself into an ugly corner imho.

http://www.mises.ca/posts/blog/the-fed-follows-the-swiss-national-bank/


> AS LONG AS THESE FX SWAPS (USD BACKSTOP) REMAIN IN PLACE, WE WILL BE LONG GOLD. THE TOP FOR THE GOLD MARKET WILL BE REACHED THE DAY THIS BACKSTOP IS ELIMINATED EITHER VOLUNTARILY OR FORCED UPON THE FED BY THE MARKET AND NOT ONE MINUTE EARLIER…”



(emphasis direct from the article, not mine)


----------



## explod

Sinner you are fishing.  Perhaps you are in the financial industry or a banker.

Nearly all I possess is in physical silver and even that is none of your business.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

How to get a reliable indicator of what happened overnight in gold?  What type of quote will be most influential in moving the XGD stocks?  Can someone explain all the different types of prices and quotes avaliable please?


----------



## skyQuake

Gringotts Bank said:


> How to get a reliable indicator of what happened overnight in gold?  What type of quote will be most influential in moving the XGD stocks?  Can someone explain all the different types of prices and quotes avaliable please?




kitco.com/market

Alternately, ^XAU and ^HUI are gold indices in the US


----------



## sinner

Gringotts Bank said:


> How to get a reliable indicator of what happened overnight in gold?  What type of quote will be most influential in moving the XGD stocks?  Can someone explain all the different types of prices and quotes avaliable please?




* HUI is the goldbugs index - unhedged large cap gold stocks ($HUI on stockcharts.com)
* GDM is the AMEX Gold Miners Index ($GDM on stockcharts.com)
* GDXJ is the NYSE Gold Juniors ETF
* XGD.TO is the TSX Gold Index (XGD.TO on stockcharts.com is the corresponding ETF)
* GCZ11 is the current front month COMEX gold futures ticker (GCU11 is the one for September expiring, you can see charts and options on the whole futures curve at barchart.com)
* Spot price of gold ($GOLD at stockcharts.com or ^XAUUSD at barchart.com for forex view, kitco also has a popular live spot chart which shows the price on a closing line basis, I usually check this one during the day)
* http://www.pagold.cn/ for Pan Asian Gold Exchange pricings
* ^AUDUSD is the forex rate, has an impact, as you have to consider that XGD.ASX stocks will be usually settling their dore sales in ^XAUAUD prices (^XAUAUD at barchart.com) 
* CLZ11 for the current front month WTIC price (or $WTIC for rolling prices at stockcharts.com)
* SIZ11 for the current front month silver futures (or $SILVER for rolling prices at stockcharts.com)
* You can get the Implied Volatility for GC futures at the ivolatility.com IVX board on their main site, look for the row labelled GC. Barchart also shoes delayed IV for futures.
* DXY Dollar Index ($USD at stockcharts.com for rolling)
* TED spread, ($TED at stockcharts.com or .TEDSP.IND on bloomberg ticker), you can also build this and the BEB spread (Bund/Euribor) spread at barchart.

All play their part, at least if you ask me.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Thank you both.

Very comprehensive sinner!  Good one.


----------



## sinner

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thank you both.
> 
> Very comprehensive sinner!  Good one.




Oops there is one more thing which affects the price of gold which you can also get form kitco,

Gold and Silver Lease Rates
http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html






This is like the bond curve, but for gold leases. If you have done any reading of the likes of Antal Fekete, "Last Contango in Washington" and similar articles, the importance will be known.


----------



## adamim1

Thought these were interesting. You will have to scroll in zoom to view.


----------



## drillinto

Gold Breaking Down ?

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/9/22/gold-breaking-down.html

*******************************


----------



## Uncle Festivus

At least 1 part of the strategy has/is materialising - short the $AU/$US! Just have to be patient for those who need to sell gold to fund margin calls etc to be finished then look to buying gold, again. The global financial jalopy has gone from having to need all 4 tyres balanced to all 4 starting to come off completely? This is it.......? Some re-arranging is in order as the bank guarantee now only $250,000!


----------



## iced earth

GOLD-23 SEPT 2011
================================

Gold in daily charts touched the top line of the channel and now the lower line of the channel would be consider a valid support level




in monthly charts, also we see gold touched the top line of the channel and if the mentioned daily charts (lower line) could not hold the gold , the red line and EMA 20 could be the next support level


----------



## Uncle Festivus

_They_ are still in control, but for how much longer???

This is market manipulation at it's finest as the 'owners' of the rules of the 'public' exchange where these items are traded have, (with no doubt some 'encouragement' from _them_, for want of a better non-libelous word) for some reason all of a sudden decided to 'take it down'?

So the answer for QE inspired price rises in core commodities is to margin out all but the most liquid & deep pocketed players?

Timed to perfection too as the flight to the 'less worse than the Euro' USD is in full flight...

Poor old silver - confidence is shot......never convinced of it's fundamentals.....compared to gold....

At this rate I can buy some (more) bargains this week - I'm interested around the $1500 mark??




SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The CME Group, the parent company of the New York Mercantile Exchange, on Friday raised margin requirements for some gold, silver and copper futures contracts. 

Initial requirements for gold's benchmark contract rose *21%* to $11,475 per contract, from $9,450 and maintenance margins climbed to $8,500 from $7,000 per contract. 

Initial requirements for silver's benchmark contract rose *16%* to $24,975 per contract, from $21,600 and maintenance margins climbed to $18,500 from $16,000 per contract. 

Initial requirements for copper's benchmark contract rose *18%* to $6,750 per contract, from $5,738 and maintenance margins climbed to $5,000 from $4,250 per contract. 

Metals sold off Friday, with gold losing more than $100 an ounce.


----------



## aclassic

Isn't this the correction Mr Z wrote about a few weeks ago?

Who else is game enough for predictions?

A whole weekend to contemplate the navel !

cheers.


----------



## Tysonboss1

aclassic said:


> Isn't this the correction Mr Z wrote about a few weeks ago?
> 
> Who else is game enough for predictions?
> 
> A whole weekend to contemplate the navel !
> 
> cheers.




Maybe,

Or it could be the first rumblings of the crash I wrote about a few weeks ago.

No, Seriously. I Don't delude myself to the point I believe I know the timings of "when" things will Happen. But I do know the "What" will happen.

And if you know the "What" the "when" is less important.

And "what" will happen is a big Correction in the gold price, "When" I don't know, I will leave that to you guys to find out. ( my feelings are within 12months, But as I said thats just a feeling not based on any facts )


----------



## joea

aclassic said:


> Isn't this the correction Mr Z wrote about a few weeks ago?
> 
> Who else is game enough for predictions?
> 
> A whole weekend to contemplate the navel !
> 
> cheers.




This is my softwares version of relationship of Gold to US Dollar.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> Maybe,
> 
> Or it could be the first rumblings of the crash I wrote about a few weeks ago.
> 
> No, Seriously. I Don't delude myself to the point I believe I know the timings of "when" things will Happen. But I do know the "What" will happen.
> 
> And if you know the "What" the "when" is less important.
> 
> And "what" will happen is a big Correction in the gold price, "When" I don't know, I will leave that to you guys to find out. ( my feelings are within 12months, But as I said thats just a feeling not based on any facts )




Tyson there will always be retracements in all great uptrends it's the nature of how markets work, there have been plenty of corrections in gold for the past 10 years of it's bull run. The current correction has just re-entered its old trend channel (which has been astoundingly consistent for three years). My guess is that there will be a solid period of consolidation for several  months before a strong trend resumes again, like what happened after the May '06 correction. No evidence of a crash yet IMO, just a healthy, overdue correction.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> Tyson there will always be retracements in all great uptrends it's the nature of how markets work, there have been plenty of corrections in gold for the past 10 years of it's bull run. The current correction has just re-entered its old trend channel (which has been astoundingly consistent for three years). My guess is that there will be a solid period of consolidation for several  months before a strong trend resumes again, like what happened after the May '06 correction. No evidence of a crash yet IMO, just a healthy, overdue correction.




Every bull market ends badly, and every "great bull market", ends in a devastating crash. Especially when the participants believe "this is different". 

If you don't understand that, you are a fool,


----------



## Mr Z

Bull markets end when they over reach their fundamental drivers. If you can't see that the fundamental drivers of a gold bull market are still in place then you are also a fool.

Given the time of year, what is going on around the world, the strength that we have seen across golds seasonally weak period etc... I would be surprised if this correction did take months to play out. On my chart gold is at a logical support point around here with a short term channel structure still intact although looking threatened. Below 1600 should offer some solid support then if that fails the 200 DMA is more looking like the worst you could expect.

Looking at various indicators today my guess is that we find a floor in the next week or so and that the odds are this will be a shorter and sharper experience than the bears expect.


----------



## wayneL

What are the fundamental drivers?

Are there speculative drivers?


----------



## Mr Z

wayneL said:


> What are the fundamental drivers?
> 
> Are there speculative drivers?




If my memory serves me correctly Wayne you lean toward the Austrian School of Economics. That being so you should be well placed to describe what is fundamentally driving this market. If my memory is faulty then I can't really help you, I have found over the years that the basic explanations that one offers on a forum are simply not believed. You really need to do the work yourself if you want to understand this, no amount of spoon feeding it will work.

You could start with this sentiment...



> Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.
> 
> *Ronald Reagan*




Speculative drivers are based in greed, the belief that the fundamentals are misinterpreted by most of the market or are about to change and the willingness to bet on that before the evidence is really there. The bears are the speculative ones at this point in a bull market, often they are simply speculating on the financial state of the long side of the contract. Price has run, there must be weak hands in over reach, there is opportunity to shake them free --> classic futures action amplified by a smaller, less liquid market.


----------



## explod

wayneL said:


> What are the fundamental drivers?
> 
> Are there speculative drivers?




I'd have thought that an examination of joea's chart a few posts back would have, in the broader sense, answered the first question.

*Speculation* becomes part of any up (or down trend) and is quite seperate to fundamental issues.  In gold's case it is fear of losing ones overall equity base and therefore an insurance.  Sentiment has a rold to play in the volatility and that is driven by media and overall feelings of the market place.

With the first point in place we should see the buying of the dip come into play here.  However in the medium term it will be the US$ playing the tunes.   Ofg course this is making aussie firm.


----------



## wayneL

Mr Z said:


> If my memory serves me correctly Wayne you lean toward the Austrian School of Economics. That being so you should be well placed to describe what is fundamentally driving this market. If my memory is faulty then I can't really help you, I have found over the years that the basic explanations that one offers on a forum are simply not believed. You really need to do the work yourself if you want to understand this, no amount of spoon feeding it will work.




Yes I understand that, if money is gold backed. But at present money is fiat.

I guess my question is how to find the intrinsic value of gold, in fiat.

What are some valuations on this basis?


----------



## Mr Z

Just to  further complicate the fundamental side of the equation one, normally shorter term, fundamental driver of any market is the financial condition of the participants and their ability maintain the current trend. Often on short term price extensions we get the price overreaching the market participants capacity to support it. You get weaker hands chasing price while the more sober longer term participants simply await the enviable pull back, waiting to buy at whatever price floor becomes apparent. I beleive this is all that has happened here, what is more it will happen many more times before we are done. In fact it will happen so often that toward the end of the market the ubiquitous mantra will be buy the dips.

The evidence I have so far, from a number of physical metal dealers in the US, is that this dip has been met with massive buying, especially in silver. The first guy I spoke to on Saturday had sold out. If this response has been similar across the nation, and I believe it is, there will be a big follow through into the Comex and OTC markets as these dealers re-stock. This is a big signal from the market that the PM's are good buying at these levels.

If you want to check some of the public sources for yourself Tulving publishes inventory numbers and King World News talks to Bill Haynes of CMI Gold & Silver Inc. Before claims of self interest are made here, I can tell you that I have checked Bills reports against private sources often and by and large they are saying the same thing... Fridays physical buying in the US was massive, these people are scared and want financial protection from their governments activities.


----------



## Mr Z

wayneL said:


> Yes I understand that, if money is gold backed. But at present money is fiat.
> 
> *I guess my question is how to find the intrinsic value of gold, in fiat.*
> 
> What are some valuations on this basis?




It is a relative thing, while there is no trusted alternate, we have negative real rates and the major economies are in a stagflationary condition then gold will increase in value in FIAT terms as it is natural money. You cannot fix any theoretical target in FIAT because FIAT is a rubbery measure that is under pressure and constantly stretching. Anyway, as soon as trusted investment alternates can produce a real return then gold will lose its market. IMO Asia ends this gold bull market when it opens its financial markets and builds, integrity, transparency and trust to the degree that it is the logical destination for rent seeking capital. For now, with the condition of the European currency and banking system and the enviable wall of new currency that the US has to throw at its system (only a couple of months until a new debt limit ceiling rise!) and the condition of its banking system is it any wonder that gold will be popular as an alternate to FIAT.

Anyway... to answer that question you have to constantly ask yourself what is the big money going to do. When Volcker turned up in the last gold bull and cranked interest rates to a level that would "suck money from the moon" you had the conditions to kill the gold bull market. That is the interest exceeded the expected inflation rate one year forward by sufficient margin to reward capital for any risks involved in lending. When a similar condition arises and capital can get a secure return over the rate that government and credit are inflating money supplies then gold will reach its peak. We are not there yet, unfortunately, I would dearly love to head off in another direction but it looks to me like we have a long time to go down this road before we get a decent prospect of a turnaround.  

So far it seems that many of the higher rates of return that can be achieved are not considered secure looking forward. US rates are a joke and there is no way that the US can do a Volcker this time around. Europe's system is just plain challenged and the only strong currencies in town have been called into question because of shorter term doubts over Asia's ability to keep on keeping on in the face of two major economies stumbling. Where is a dollar to go? What is safe? 

Personally I think that the responses by government to this mess will, in the mid term, drive all tangibles and related companies and instruments. Gold is the number one tangible when it comes to a portable store of wealth that is no one else's obligation, so it is very hard to see why it all stops here.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> Every bull market ends badly, and every "great bull market", ends in a devastating crash. Especially when the participants believe "this is different".
> 
> If you don't understand that, you are a fool,




I wont respond the the immature personal attack except to say that *obviously* every bull run ends, everything in the world eventually comes to an end, even a toddler can understand that. 

You don't understand the trend followers paradigm. Go read about Ed Seykota. He's done very well not trying to make trading decisions based on futile predictions of the future. He looks at a chart from the other side of the room, if it's going up, he wants to be on it.  He acts on the objective information available rather than some horrific picture of 'what could happen' that's running around in his subjective mind. 



Tysonboss1 said:


> And "what" will happen is a big Correction in the gold price, *"When" I don't know*, I will leave that to you guys to find out. ( my *feelings* are within 12months, But as I said thats* just a feeling* *not based on any facts *)




Well I suppose that's a fine example of investing decisions based on subjectivity. At least you are not risking any capital in this case...


----------



## disarray

Tysonboss1 said:


> Every bull market ends badly, and every "great bull market", ends in a devastating crash. Especially when the participants believe "this is different".
> 
> If you don't understand that, you are a fool,




sounds like property.

p.s. you are being an annoying douche with your endless personal attacks and oh so smug sense of intellectual superiority. get over yourself. or head over to the property thread and hang out with medicowallet.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Note, I said that it will end badly but I have no idea "when", my disclaimer was that any time frames I gave were not based on fact and were just a personal feeling. I did not say my investment decisions were based on feelings and not facts.

Also please note that most people buying into gold are using a trend following approach, once it is clear the bull run is over they will all be heading for the door and it is mathematically impossible for them all to get out at a profit, the crash will be hard and fast. Who will you sell to when all the buyers become sellers,


----------



## Tysonboss1

disarray said:


> sounds like property.
> 
> p.s. you are being an annoying douche with your endless personal attacks and oh so smug sense of intellectual superiority. get over yourself. or head over to the property thread and hang out with medicowallet.




Yeah except property doubled and it was called a bubble, gold went up 6 times and is some how being called a stable store of value here.

This thread needs an opposing view.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Yeah except property doubled and it was called a bubble, gold went up 6 times and is some how being called a stable store of value here.
> 
> This thread needs an opposing view.




Opposing is fine, but give us some substance? 

There is far more to gold than what the charts are saying


----------



## disarray

Tysonboss1 said:


> Yeah except property doubled and it was called a bubble, gold went up 6 times and is some how being called a stable store of value here.
> 
> This thread needs an opposing view.




once again, gold isn't going up in value, fiat money is going down.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> Note, I said that it will end badly but I have no idea "when", my disclaimer was that any time frames I gave were not based on fact and were just a personal feeling. I did not say my investment decisions were based on feelings and not facts.
> 
> Also please note that most people buying into gold are using a trend following approach, once it is clear the bull run is over they will all be heading for the door and it is mathematically impossible for them all to get out at a profit, the crash will be hard and fast. Who will you sell to when all the buyers become sellers,




By your flawed logic we should all avoid bull runs out of fear that 'the crash will be hard and fast'. What flawed logic.
There was plenty of time to get out of the ASX bull run 2003-2007 and be in cash during most of the GFC. Your mind is just full of worst case fear-based scenarios, that's all.

Edit: Yes the crash could be 'hard and fast', anything can happen; but we're dealing with probabilities here. That's what risk management and diversification is for.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> Also please note that most people buying into gold are using a trend following approach




You know this how? 

In fact the more likely case at this stage in the market is that the bulk of the money that is now in gold is there for well researched and fundamentally sound reasons. You are more talking about a market that has gone into the overreach phase... say like Australian residential property.

You are making assumptions about the phase of the market we are in, seemingly without having done any research. All the while covering your bum with a WHEN... yes at some point gold will get over done.... well over done, but that is not now.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> Yeah except property doubled and it was called a bubble, gold went up 6 times and is some how being called a stable store of value here.
> 
> This thread needs an opposing view.




That is funny.... I can point to many examples of land that have gone six times or more! Regardless, since when has it been appropriate to compare a market like gold with real estate? Real estate will typically never do the over or undervaluation that an asset like gold can achieve. Mind you, in this last 20 odd year run it has excelled on the over side like never before and on deteriorating fundamentals... classic over reach.


----------



## wayneL

disarray said:


> once again, gold isn't going up in value, fiat money is going down.





Agreed, but how do we quantify the relationship between gold and fiat, sans speculative input?

Is fiat worth 20% of what it was 10 years ago?

If so, I'm putting my prices up!


----------



## disarray

WayneL said:
			
		

> Agreed, but how do we quantify the relationship between gold and fiat, sans speculative input?




ask the developing economies. they're the ones stockpiling the stuff and prepping for the overthrow of the US petrodollar paradigm. i think some form of gold (or commodity)backed system is likely, at least during the transitional period from the old financial system to whatever one emerges from the wreckage of this one, so i suppose the price of gold will be the amount of money needed divided by the required (and agreed) percentage of physical holdings.


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> Yeah except property doubled and it was called a bubble, gold went up 6 times and is some how being called a stable store of value here.
> 
> This thread needs an opposing view.



Indeed, no point in a thread full of clones.

But you seem to make out that owning gold as an investment is completely unjustifiable, as I understand it 'because it produces nothing'. And if I'm not mistaken this is because you basically model your entire investment philosophy on Warren Buffet & Ben Graham word-for-word.

However reality is that stocks are not always the best asset class. The evaluation of your stock holdings over the last 6 months has gone down. Threats of deflation, recession etc are negative for stocks (regardless of ROE valuation etc) and commodities, and positive for bonds. People who bought 10y treasuries at the beginning of the year are laughing. Threats of inflation are negative for bonds, positive for stocks, and very positive for commodities, esp gold. 

The current gold rout has been triggered by the US central bank indicating it will not print more money (at least for now) in spite of the worsening economic climate (which had caused them to print in the past). Up until this point, both the bond market and the gold market had been going ballistic - an odd situation. It indicated very high uncertainty - the bad banks and piles of bad debts were still there threatening heavy deflation, but the central bank was there simultaneously spewing money - threatening inflation.

However we still have the same problems, regardless of the noises that come from central banks. Europe is still a basket case, with heavy political pressure to simply monetize all the bad sovereign debts. Japan has no credible way of reducing its debt. The US has no credible way of reducing its debt. 
Will people hold risky government debt in a money printing environment at today's negative real yields? For how long? Either they will go for gold or the world has gone mad and 2+2 is now officially 5.


----------



## Aussiejeff

tothemax6 said:


> Will people hold risky government debt in a money printing environment at today's negative real yields? For how long? Either they will go for gold or _*the world has gone mad and 2+2 is now officially 5.*_




The second option....a New Formula For Economic Stability has been created this weekend by the G-20, no doubt after consultation with our very own economic genius - _World's Greatest Treasurer_.

We are all saved.

Meanwhile, gold plummeting.....


----------



## Mr Z

The fact is that short term US gov debt is now the defacto bank account for anyone needing to park billions in a hurry. You simply can't leave it at the bank now can you? A banking system in crisis is ideal support for the short end of the curve.... for now. IMO the Fed will become the egg man at the long end of the curve leaving it flat.... financial repression 101.


----------



## TabJockey

Gold is falling because it is a risk asset. People are taking their profits on gold, gold ETFs, gold futures to go into cash.

If you believe in the long term fundamentals of gold then perhaps this is a buying opportunity for you, just like shares or any other asset you can make a case for under valuation at the moment.

Also the people who bought gold as an inflation hedge are selling because the perceived inflationary risk is lower, deflation is considered to be more likely in the near to medium term.


----------



## noirua

As Guru Dr Mark Faber said last Wednesday, "many people have little else showing a profit left to sell, so gold has to go". He failed to say 'don't sell gold', though he will be holding on to his.

Greece now owes AU$550 billion and the final bail out of banks on allowing Greece to go bust is more than AU$3 trillion; mostly to cover German, French, Italian and a few UK banks that would be bust otherwise.


----------



## Mr Z

TabJockey said:


> Gold is falling because it is a risk asset. People are taking their profits on gold, gold ETFs, gold futures to go into cash.
> 
> If you believe in the long term fundamentals of gold then perhaps this is a buying opportunity for you, just like shares or any other asset you can make a case for under valuation at the moment.
> 
> Also the people who bought gold as an inflation hedge are selling because the perceived inflationary risk is lower, deflation is considered to be more likely in the near to medium term.




1. In this environment it is not a risk asset, even the brain dead press worked that out this time around.

2. Yes it is a buying opportunity.

3.  Gold is not an inflation hedge, that is a common misnomer that is easily dispelled by looking at historical data.


----------



## Mr Z

noirua said:


> As Guru Dr Mark Faber said last Wednesday, "many people have little else showing a profit left to sell, so gold has to go". He failed to say 'don't sell gold', though he will be holding on to his.




Precisely... Mark is on the money, this has more to do with the finical state of some of the market participants than anything else.

PS. Normally by the time that gold gets caught up in this sort of carry unwind it is all over bar the shouting. Time to BUY the beaten up!


----------



## TabJockey

Mr Z said:


> 1. In this environment it is not a risk asset, even the brain dead press worked that out this time around.




Gold is a risk asset to many market participants. They bought an instrument that had a risk of falling an value, in the hope that it will rise in value and can be sold at a profit. Sure gold is not a risk asset to doomsdayers stacking it away in a bunker under their house, but when you have a market as hyped as gold, you get allot of speculators in there for a quick buck. Big and small.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> 1. In this environment it is not a risk asset, even the *brain dead *press worked that out this time around.




Yep thats it.


----------



## Mr Z

TabJockey said:


> Gold is a risk asset to many market participants. *They bought an instrument that had a risk of falling an value*, in the hope that it will rise in value and can be sold at a profit. Sure gold is not a risk asset to doomsdayers stacking it away in a bunker under their house, but when you have a market as hyped as gold, you get allot of speculators in there for a quick buck. Big and small.




Everything is a risk asset by that definition! 

Gold hyped? You have to be kidding me, LOL it has yet to scale the heights of domestic RE ---> wake me up when we get a gold reality TV show, hyped LOL Just because it is getting some coverage now. More like welcome to phase two of the bull market... the broad awaking is occurring... lots more talk but little action but at least an awareness. 

We are running on solid, VERY SOLID, fundamentals here. That will not change until the shaky debt is purged from this system and a reasonable chance of REAL growth returns to the major economies.

If you class gold as a risk asset here you simply don't understand what gold is and what is happening to the worlds financial system.


----------



## sinner

wayneL said:


> Agreed, but how do we quantify the relationship between gold and fiat, sans speculative input?
> 
> Is fiat worth 20% of what it was 10 years ago?
> 
> If so, I'm putting my prices up!




Secular trends can be measured outside of pricing input. i.e. if it is a real long term trend then you should see it whether it is priced in USD, barrels of oil, dozens of eggs or Russian Rubles, inflation adjusted, cyclically adjusted, etc.

For example, take a look at the bull market in the SP500 from 1987-start 2001. Priced in gold, CPI adjusted, Case Shiller adjusted, priced in USD, barrels of oil, whatever. That was a secular bull trend.

Now, head on over to the goldprice.org spot price calculatey thingy

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

Click all data, and price gold in any currency you want. JPY is the last currency standing in terms of "gold hasn't priced a new all time high yet". If you can be bothered, run some ratio charts of gold priced in barrels of oil, or tonnes of copper or 30 year bonds. I think its fair to say that gold prices have already undergone a phase transition in many global currencies.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> If you class gold as a risk asset here you simply don't understand what  gold is and what is happening to the worlds financial system.




Exactly. That's largely the problem both here and in the general population. Only I would like to think that even some basic research would enlighten some posters in this thread to finally 'get with the program' about gold and contribute with some informed opinion, rather than 'it's gone up a lot so it's gonna come down a lot again.........sometime.....I guess'???

Many a fine gold naysayer have graced this thread over the years only to disappear under the weight of inevitability - of the fall of the fiat system and the rise of gold as a _store of value_. They too were always predicting the imminent crash of gold, but thanks to greed & politicians it has gone from strength to strength.........that's not to say this correction won't be severe, and I hope it is....... 




TabJockey said:


> Gold is a risk asset to many market participants. They bought an instrument that had a risk of falling an value, in the hope that it will rise in value and can be sold at a profit. Sure gold is not a risk asset to doomsdayers stacking it away in a bunker under their house, but when you have a market as hyped as gold, you get allot of speculators in there for a quick buck. Big and small.




Not to me - it's relatively less risky than anything else _at the moment_. I bought it and buy it to maintain 'value'. This is not a 'normal' bull market - it's an exercise in relativities - your store of value is most likely in a fiat form, which relies on the confidence of the market to maintain it's value, even though it's value is continually being eroded by the creation of excess fiat units, among other things. 

It's relative to anything else whose 'value' is determined by the quantity and availability of dollars, as well as the confidence of the market to uphold that 'value' - enter exhibit A, the US housing crash. Right now there is very little confidence in the ability of counter parties to even pay back the principle let alone interest, so the 'credit constipation' requires those who do have lot's of cash to park it some where relatively safe e.g. the USD. And what little confidence there is is based on 'past perceptions' ie that the office holders of where the buck stops ie the central bankers, will be able to, again, steer the ship through and out of the crisis. Based on the numbers (that I and others have posted here & on other threads) & simple maths this simply won't happen - it's the end game, eventually!

You can either 'get it' and be prepared or follow the herd and get vaporised.....??


----------



## explod

Apart from good land the only safe place is gold or silver in the hand.

The 600 trillion,  paper IOU, dirivatives market will collapse and the physical bullion market will then be free of constraints and go bananas.

Mr Z, you are doing a great job on the "sunshine and lollie pops" there brother.

Faculty head and attempt at leader Plod.


----------



## skyQuake

explod said:


> Apart from good land the only safe place is gold or silver in the hand.




Cash is always good. 
imo if things are getting out of hand, it will be too late to buy gold, but it will not be too late to get out of cash.

Large market participants or funds will not park their money in gold for the sole reason it _acts_ speculative. All that spare cash.. Buy stocks? Nope. Buy euros? Ewwwww. Buy gold/silver? Too speculative. Better stay in treasuries.

It will be a fair while before this type of thinking changes.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Apart from good land *the only safe place is gold or silver in the hand*.
> 
> The 600 trillion,  paper IOU, dirivatives market will collapse and the physical bullion market will then be free of constraints and go bananas.
> 
> Mr Z, you are doing a great job on the "sunshine and lollie pops" there brother.
> 
> Faculty head and attempt at leader Plod.




If you are right then buy guns and lots of ammo because you will need it. Plus you better hope you are a tough guy otherwise you will hold nothing. This is what rabid goldbugs don't seem to get in their wish for gold and silver to reign supreme.... they don't seem to picture what society will look like if it all fails. Frankly it is a repugnant idea and the wishes of many bugs I find equally repulsive.

IMO it is not going to happen... all things tangible and related will do quite well and they are selling many good resource companies cheap right now.

By all means get gold and silver BUT it doesn't end there, Asia is not closing down tomorrow, we are not finding massive amounts of most things and the demand is growing as Asia both grows in population and heads for a  more middle class life style. The debt is a western issue and we will muddle through it one crisis after the next while Asia jogs past us getting fitter each day.

Be careful what you wish for X, I for one certainly do not want to live in the world where only gold and silver have kept value and I will bet that you couldn't with what you have.

I detest goldbugs, I am a gold investor.... lets keep this real, Mad Max ain't your local highway patrolman yet!

BTW... I hope you don't mean land that's price is based on an over extended debt market.


----------



## Mr Z

skyQuake said:


> Large market participants or funds will not park their money in gold for the sole reason it _acts_ speculative.




But they are increasingly doing just that...!  The funds are moving more and more in golds direction as this thing rolls on. 20% compound in USD for 10 years with the fundamentals still strong is hard to argue with! Even CalPERS is going for gold! and I predict they will increase the %'s over the years to come.


----------



## sinner

skyQuake said:


> Cash is always good.
> imo if things are getting out of hand, it will be too late to buy gold, but it will not be too late to get out of cash.
> 
> Large market participants or funds will not park their money in gold for the sole reason it _acts_ speculative. All that spare cash.. Buy stocks? Nope. Buy euros? Ewwwww. Buy gold/silver? Too speculative. Better stay in treasuries.
> 
> It will be a fair while before this type of thinking changes.




This is absolutely not the reason that bonds of various sovereigns are bought. Large market participants are not ones to say "ewww"  and I think your claim that they are not participating in (or the direct cause of) this gold bull is pretty silly. 

What is cash? Cash is now nothing but a transactional notion. If you give the cash to the bank, for them to "hold it as reserves" they still have to go and buy some debt (bonds) from another (or the central) bank, in effect loaning your so called "cash" out to another entity who has to deploy it in a productive transaction or also go and buy debt with it. From a counter-party risk perspective there is no such thing as cash as you've portrayed it. Aside from the physical stock of coins and notes, there simply isn't a big pile of "cash" somewhere which all those credits and debits net out to someone holding a bunch of the pile. They actually just vanish! So paying off or defaulting on debt has become the same as retiring a portion of the money supply.

To wit, my super has been in "Cash" since August 2008. Yet I am not foolish enough to think these dollars are any measure of "safe". If I could buy gold with the money I would.


----------



## Mr Z

Short term treasuries are a bank account for the funds, it is the only place they can get certainly on "return of capital". Short term cash is parked there... it is not considered an investment position, just a short term defensive measure. Gold is an investment position... nobody moving into short term treasuries believes anything other than it will cost them some $ in exchange for certainty, but hey better that than trusting this creaky old banking system eh?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> Be careful what you wish for X, I for one certainly do not want to live in the world where only gold and silver have kept value and I will bet that you couldn't with what you have.
> 
> I detest goldbugs, I am a gold investor.... lets keep this real, Mad Max ain't your local highway patrolman yet!
> 
> BTW... I hope you don't mean land that's price is based on an over extended debt market.




I'm not sure it's even a case of 'wishing' either? Is it a matter of degrees of bugness'? You don't think it will get truly bad - I think the probability of 1st worlders being forced to lower our standard of living is pretty high, thanks to the ineptitude & greed of all types of bankers.

We have seen what happens when some countries are forced to start living not only within their means but go even further because the proper decisions were not made before that harder decisions have to be made now.

If you are inferring that gold 'bugs' actually want this to happen just to be  proven correct then I am not a gold bug. It's just that if you see what's happened and envisage what needs to happen then things are dire indeed, to the point where 'unexpected' things start happening like riots in the US.

Now to assume that the Asian states can somehow get it right, at the same time using the same financial philosophies as the countries in trouble ie mis-allocation of money, and to do that while the rest of the world implodes, is a long call to make. China is not the beacon of fiscal responsibility the mainstream media make it to be - the consequences (for us) of it taking a stumble are obvious. Their data leaves a lot to be desired. I recall Japan was the golden haired child some 30 years ago and see where it is now?

It's all a matter of the contagion working it's way through the system on an slow negative feed back loop - and taking advantage of it?


----------



## Mr Z

Gold and silver being the only thing of value infers a world where we are doing it very very tough. It is beyond anything in our experience of the first world, it is in the territory that law is breaking down, government is in disarray and locally, might has right. Hang around the bug sites for long enough and you should see that they are inhabited by anarchical racist survivalists than want to see government and civil society fail so that they can build a brave new bugdom. They "prep" by storing food, guns and ammo and they talk strategy in dealing with the "sheeple". Basically they seem to see nothing worth keeping in their current society, they seem to have no skin in this game, no "buy in" on the idea of making our systems better. They just wanna pull the rug and gloat that they where right. What they think happens beyond the life of their food store or the limit of the 5000 rounds of ammo they have I don't know! They are "hardmen" in there own minds, no one bigger will turn up and push them around when the SHFT! 

I once thought that I bought gold therefore I must be a goldbug ---> then I met some real goldbugs and was repulsed by the totality of what this set beleive and willfully wish for.

Yeah this may get tough, but not gold and silver only tough, that is just plain nuts IMO.


----------



## disarray

Mr Z said:


> If you are right then buy guns and lots of ammo because you will need it. Plus you better hope you are a tough guy otherwise you will hold nothing. This is what rabid goldbugs don't seem to get in their wish for gold and silver to reign supreme.... they don't seem to picture what society will look like if it all fails. Frankly it is a repugnant idea and the wishes of many bugs I find equally repulsive




funny you should mention that ....


----------



## sinner

disarray said:


> funny you should mention that ....




Personally, I like Ferfal and I don't think he really fits into what Mr. Z is talking about at all. Maybe some nuts co-opted him as such, but it's pretty clear that isn't his game.


----------



## Mr Z

disarray said:


> funny you should mention that ....




I have not read him! 

*<MINI RANT>*I prefer to be optimistic about our ability to make the best of this messy paper chase. I don't want to crawl under a rock and throw life as I know it out the window. There is lots to like about it and it is worth defending for me and my family --> disaffected and disenfranchised gold bugs be damned! *</MINI RANT>*


----------



## Mr Z

Anywhooooo... back to gold. Ready for a bottom this week? Wanna hang some odds on that idea?


----------



## drillinto

The Gold Vending Machine Is Ready... in China

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20110925000037&cid=1102

$$$$$$$


----------



## skyQuake

sinner said:


> This is absolutely not the reason that bonds of various sovereigns are bought. Large market participants are not ones to say "ewww"  and I think your claim that they are not participating in (or the direct cause of) this gold bull is pretty silly.
> 
> What is cash? Cash is now nothing but a transactional notion. If you give the cash to the bank, for them to "hold it as reserves" they still have to go and buy some debt (bonds) from another (or the central) bank, in effect loaning your so called "cash" out to another entity who has to deploy it in a productive transaction or also go and buy debt with it. From a counter-party risk perspective there is no such thing as cash as you've portrayed it. Aside from the physical stock of coins and notes, there simply isn't a big pile of "cash" somewhere which all those credits and debits net out to someone holding a bunch of the pile. They actually just vanish! So paying off or defaulting on debt has become the same as retiring a portion of the money supply.
> 
> To wit, my super has been in "Cash" since August 2008. Yet I am not foolish enough to think these dollars are any measure of "safe". If I could buy gold with the money I would.




Consider the size of the Gold ETF vs mutal funds cash holdings. Even those already holding physical or etf or derivatives of gold. There simply isnt enough participation from their end. Most of the money in there is speculative sloshing around, as you can see from today's carnage.
I am simply saying funds are still considering USD treasuries quality. They have no choice in the matter. eg. 20% invested 80% cash - That cash goes into treasuries/short term bills.


----------



## pixel

A week ago, I saw a vague possibility of Gold to find support at $1580. How time flies! We're there already. And if this level doesn't hold, I guess $1493 might be tested by next week, if not earlier.
One thing is certain: I won't buy bullion just yet...


----------



## Wysiwyg

Any real reason why spot gold price is tanking so straight down like a rock?? I expected a correction but this is overkill.


----------



## explod

Tell me this, the price of gold and silver is falling off the cliff yet you try to buy more on this dip, and apart from an odd coin or bar you really cant' buy any.

For Perth mint it is only established account holders, even then its at a premium and you have to wait sometime for delivery.  One would imagine that if it is losing value there must be plenty of it around. 

Something has to give soon in my view.  Or do I miss something here ?

The comex open will be interesting and its anyones guess.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Tell me this, the price of gold and silver is falling off the cliff yet you try to buy more on this dip, and apart from an odd coin or bar you really cant' buy any.
> 
> For Perth mint it is only established account holders, even then its at a premium and you have to wait sometime for delivery.  One would imagine that if it is losing value there must be plenty of it around.
> 
> Something has to give soon in my view.  Or do I miss something here ?
> 
> The comex open will be interesting and its anyones guess.




Yeah you are missing something, because my bullion dealer which quote the prices on their stock based on live spot has definitely been marking down prices as the day progresses.



> Consider the size of the Gold ETF vs mutal funds cash holdings. Even those already holding physical or etf or derivatives of gold. There simply isnt enough participation from their end.




lol so mutual fund participation is an indicator of what now? When the herd of mutual funds finally decide it's time to go long *GOLD* *(not GLD)* it will be already well after the fact of recognition that going long gold was the correct thing to do.



> Most of the money in there is speculative sloshing around, as you can see from today's carnage.




You are so sure of yourself, it's like you've got an inside wire into this market! Oh wait, nope, just another spec. If the price is tanking, and it's the specs who are selling...well...nevermind.



> I am simply saying funds are still considering USD treasuries quality. They have no choice in the matter. eg. 20% invested 80% cash - That cash goes into treasuries/short term bills.




Yep alright dude, enjoy. No point arguing this issue for now.


----------



## skyQuake

sinner said:


> lol so mutual fund participation is an indicator of what now? When the herd of mutual funds finally decide it's time to go long *GOLD* *(not GLD)* it will be already well after the fact of recognition that going long gold was the correct thing to do.



was in reference to your comment 
"I think your claim that they are not participating in (or the direct cause of) this gold bull is pretty silly. "




> You are so sure of yourself, it's like you've got an inside wire into this market! Oh wait, nope, just another spec. If the price is tanking, and it's the specs who are selling...well...nevermind.



Doesn't matter whos selling. Only its continuous, sustained, and eats anything that gets in its way. 
Judging from that its from specs who are forced to liquidate or a fund that blew up. No-one else sells like that.


----------



## sinner

skyQuake said:


> was in reference to your comment
> "I think your claim that they are not participating in (or the direct cause of) this gold bull is pretty silly. "




LOL mutual funds are not who I was referring to. Lets clarify, I was referring to real money: sovereign wealth funds, CBs, pension funds, etc. You know, real market participants who are actually in the real gold market, taking delivery and storing allocated in a vault. I also assumed this is what you meant, but obviously I was wrong.



> Doesn't matter whos selling. Only its continuous, sustained, and eats anything that gets in its way.
> Judging from that its from specs who are forced to liquidate or a fund that blew up. No-one else sells like that.




"You are so sure of yourself, it's like you've got an inside wire into this market! Oh wait, nope..." 

This thread is dead quiet except for 3 posters day after day, month after month, then a 20% drop in gold and suddenly everyones an expert with an opinion to offer.

Nevermind, I'll leave it to the experts, measuring "mutual fund cash" and chattering about "sloshing specs".


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Yeah you are missing something, because my bullion dealer which quote the prices on their stock based on live spot has definitely been marking down prices as the day progresses.
> 
> 
> .




Can you let me know who he is, by pm if you like, so that I can get some.


----------



## Mr Z

Smells like a bottom rapidly approaching.... crapitulation is being bought!


----------



## Edwood

Mr Z said:


> Anywhooooo... back to gold. Ready for a bottom this week? Wanna hang some odds on that idea?




might've just seen your bottom there Mr Z


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Can you let me know who he is, by pm if you like, so that I can get some.




www.bullionmoney.com.au is my current vendor, happy to post here as they have an ASF account and (in the past) read this thread. So far happy with them in all respects, even if they are slightly more pricey than Ainslie.

AFAIK there is no minimum or maximum order.


----------



## Edwood

lol posts crossed 

Solid move down alright, and nice fade away since, but 1400s would look better imo


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> lol posts crossed
> 
> Solid move down alright, and nice fade away since, but 1400s would look better imo





You are just cheap!


----------



## Edwood

865 would be better still Mr Z, but won't see that just yet


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> 865 would be better still Mr Z, but won't see that just yet




That sounds like a number that Prechter would come up with! I'm still waiting for his deflationary return to $200. Smart guy but is is hung up the the "gold is a run of the mill commodity" idea.... not so smart.


----------



## Edwood

I don't really know Prechter at all Mr Z so can't comment sorry.  $200 is a bit hopeful I would've thought, no doubt it will get there someday but life is short.  Better to stick with targets likely to be hit in the next 12 months imo


----------



## Buckfont

sinner said:


> www.bullionmoney.com.au is my current vendor, happy to post here as they have an ASF account and (in the past) read this thread. So far happy with them in all respects, even if they are slightly more pricey than Ainslie.
> 
> AFAIK there is no minimum or maximum order.




Have bought throught both dealers. Have found there are differing prices with both depending on the day. Ainslie on line has been off line for most of the day. Bullion Money is out of stock on many products. 

Tells me there is a rush on PM`s and the stock is becoming harder to get.


----------



## sinner

Buckfont said:


> Have bought throught both dealers. Have found there are differing prices with both depending on the day. Ainslie on line has been off line for most of the day. Bullion Money is out of stock on many products.
> 
> Tells me there is a rush on PM`s and the stock is becoming harder to get.




Thanks for your input, in response I went to check the bullionmoney website (admittedly I did not try to place an order with them today or Friday) and it is down! 



Hope you've got your phys!


----------



## Billyb

Gold dropped pretty much to the bottom of its it's three year trendline and bounced back up like there's no tomorrow (after all, gold is a hedge against 'no tomorrow'!); that's not a bad sign at all. 

 However, with all the background weakness, I still personally think gold will go sideways for potentially several weeks or even months, and so I am happy to wait till the volatility dies down a bit before buying on this dip.


----------



## Mr Z

Edwood said:


> I don't really know Prechter at all Mr Z so can't comment sorry.  $200 is a bit hopeful I would've thought, no doubt it will get there someday but life is short.  Better to stick with targets likely to be hit in the next 12 months imo





OK... I will remember that you have target of $865 inside 12 months. We can discuss how well it went in a year. 



Possibly a bit ambitious for the big correction, not sure I'd be betting below 1K, but first higher IMO.


----------



## Logique

Since the beginning of Sept, gold is losing the race with the $USD in the flight to safety.  Technically, a return to trend in range 1500 - 1600 is no great surprise, but the $USD looks to have more in this upward appreciation, so gold will be under pressure.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like pixel got his $1580 support spike down, then good follow through, for now?




On a longer timespan, expect daily ranges of $50- $100 as systemic capitulation gathers pace? $1500 still needs to be tested?




_The Kitco Gold Index is up and the USD price of gold is up even more:__
      This would definitely mean that gold has increased in value. It also       means that the USD has weakened and so the degree of the gold value       increase *will be exaggerated* when examined strictly in terms of the US       Dollar. This is the exact scenario that we’ve witnessed over the span       of the early years of the 21st century._


----------



## Mr Z

1. The USD/Gold correlation has been low recently, they very much rallied together for the first part of Sep.

2. The USD looks toppy here and now, some divergence has setup, its at resistance and about as overbought as it tends to get these days.

3. Gold has come back out of its 200DMA area like a scalded cat from oversold levels that have always produced rallies in recent history.

4. It is that time of year, gold always finds a way up into year end.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Change the scale and it looks perfectly normal . Although if you believe in conspiracy theories then _they_ will try to break it down technically too??




(It's far too chatty in here now - can we go back to when gold was going _up_ $100 a week and no one posted )


----------



## Mr Z

LOL...

We have near a $100 tail on that last candle! Now that is volatility, signs of what is to come?


----------



## Logique

Uncle Festivus said:


> ...(It's far too chatty in here now - can we go back to when gold was going _up_ $100 a week and no one posted )



Alternatively you afficionados could PM each other with superior and self congratulatory messages, leaving the way clear for the lesser classes to have an opinion?


----------



## Mr Z

Is that the best you can contribute?

Who let the cats out? meow, meow :


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> Alternatively you afficionados could PM each other with superior and self congratulatory messages, leaving the way clear for the lesser classes to have an opinion?




Dont you worry about that Logique, we will just keep plodding along. 

Every strong reverse candle over the last 10 years just like the one today (and its a very good one) has signalled a bottom for the next upleg.

But you never know, the powers that be may just try to change that this time.

Chucks a good read today.  http://www.dailypfennig.com/


----------



## aclassic

Logique said:


> Alternatively you afficionados could PM each other with superior and self congratulatory messages, leaving the way clear for the lesser classes to have an opinion?




Hey Logique, I am a lesser newbie, and I really don't mind at all....quite the opposite.


----------



## aclassic

Gents,

With today's futures news:
"Among commodities, crude ....l, and gold for December delivery fell $45 to
$1594.80 per ounce."

Would you be buying now anywhere above that?

cheeers.


----------



## explod

aclassic said:


> Gents,
> 
> With today's futures news:
> "Among commodities, crude ....l, and gold for December delivery fell $45 to
> $1594.80 per ounce."
> 
> Would you be buying now anywhere above that?
> 
> cheeers.




Physical gold in the hand yes.


----------



## aclassic

explod said:


> Physical gold in the hand yes.




Hello there explod, yes tempting but I couldn't look past AYN at 8.8 just now....

cheers.


----------



## Logique

explod said:


> Dont you worry about that Logique, we will just keep plodding along.  http://www.dailypfennig.com/



Fair enough Explod, but it does concern me that this thread was as bullish gold at $1900 earlier in Sept as it is now at $1620, when I think gold and silver longs ought seriously to be considering their position.  

(My bolds - some good charts at the link too.)


> https://encrypted.google.com/url?sa...sejsDg&usg=AFQjCNGm8-NASMoWeHGg5nAM0tAUB30AYg
> US Dollar, Gold, Silver And Violent HUI Price Swings
> By John Townsend on September 26, 2011
> 
> .....At this point I am convinced that *the most recent 3 year cycle low * [in the US Dollar Index] *was achieved on May 4th, 2011*. Following that date the dollar essentially consolidated sideways for 4 months and then began its rocket launch. The first strong day after concluding the consolidation phase *capped the price of gold once and for all * (September 6, 2011).
> 
> The evidence on the chart suggests that *the rally in the US Dollar Index is hardly over * and has a long ways to go. Conversely, I believe now that *gold also has a long way to go – in the other direction*, that is...



If you think that's bad, you should hear the guy on the price of silver, and the possibility of a deflationary spiral capturing the PMs. What's the point of all this - investors should keep an open mind, there's a diversity of opinion out there.


----------



## Mr Z

I seem to remember calling for a correction at $1900? Funny how people remember things!

FWIW this has triggered big physical buying in the US, not the normal response when gold and silver get a beating. Just look at the last months volatility, this doesn't look to me like it will play out as slowly as this size correction has in the past. This market just feels different now, like it has moved into a new phase.

I was checking out the option OI for December, there are some 16000 calls @ $3K ---> and you think we are bullish!

Deflationists have had gold wrong for a decade now, yet they still get traction albeit at higher and higher correction numbers. IMO we simply cannot have the sort deflation they are discussing with FIAT currencies. That little fact alters the dynamic totally in dollar terms, we move from deflation more to a stagflation outcome with rapidly expanding parts of the money supply playing off against rapidly contracting parts of the money supply (the credit arena.) That creates a market in which different assets are effected differently depending on the source of the money underpinning their markets. IMO it leads to exactly what you have seen in latter years, various credit episodes damaging markets and then liquidity injections reflating them against a backdrop of all life's essentials going up in price while discretionary items fall in price. It is basically a stagnant economy with M1 & M2 growing and M3 contracting. The Fed really wants to keep the effects of the lower Ms growing under control while it tries to get M3 growing again. So far the efforts have got M3 shrinking less fast thus moderating the deflation portion of the equation while the lower Ms are growing too fast for most peoples budgets. It is a messy picture which is why I guess there is still so much debate around it with all these people feeling up different parts of the elephant and declaring their absolute faith in their diagnosis.

All I can nervously say is I don't think this is all that simple and cannot be described in terms of outright deflation or outright inflation, the net effects of this mess, at any given time are going to vary very much depending on the current state of balance between the various forces. We just saw a rebalancing exercise, just in time to get commodities lower for another round of global money creation ---> things that make you go hmmmmmmmmm. Nice timing eh? Watch this space... the first part of 2012 could be very interesting with much higher prices than the market is currently believing possible.


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> Fair enough Explod, but it does concern me that this thread was as bullish gold at $1900 earlier in Sept as it is now at $1620, when I think gold and silver longs ought seriously to be considering their position.
> 
> (My bolds - some good charts at the link too.)
> 
> If you think that's bad, you should hear the guy on the price of silver, and the possibility of a deflationary spiral capturing the PMs. What's the point of all this - investors should keep an open mind, there's a diversity of opinion out there.




The wave idea (Elliot et al) are good in clarifying the big longer term moves but I find they do no more than that.  At the end of the day the changes are made by fundamental events and moods.  Seasonal, yearly or cyclical demand is more useful perhaps.

On Tounsend's US$ index we see a decline of about 25% for the period commencing 2003.  However in the same time period we see that gold has risen 400%.  Of course many will say too far and too fast.  But many more are saying that the dollar printing has gone too far and too fast to be maintained, but hang on *they must*it seems.   Printing dollars for bonds this week and who knows for whom they will need to increase the pressess speed for next week.  I know I am accused of oversimplifying, but how else can one really get around the magnitude and compexity of this growing financial mayhem.

Contrary to helecopter Ben's idea, *gold is money *and it is merely holding its true value against the deflating price of the fiat paper.

Tounsend's monthly gold chart is almost the same as that posted by Uncle Festivus yesterday.  It clearly shows that the uptrend is intact.  We have just hit the third upward spike since 06 and the previous two corrected down by close to 50%.  This latest move has also now corrected from its beginning by about 50%.   I see this as the steps and stairs in the wild wall of worry and it paints the picture on a chart of the overall fight between the believers and the non-believers.  In reality, the US$ is being diluted by the printing presses and gold in physical form is being accumulated by those in fear of losing their wealth.  Too simple perhaps, but that *is what is *occurring.

On Tounsend's overall article, his estimates and predictions may well play out.  However, apart from the lines and curves, he offers no real fundamental reasons for why these moves may take place.  He does not really know and nor do I or anyone else.  We can only follow the trend, what the market place has told us and try to understand the fundamental reasons for why it is occurring.  And on looking back over the last 80 years most would argue that the financial situation at the moment is so bad that it is new ground to us all and what starts to play out soon is not predictable in any sense.  However an ounce of gold in the hand cannot be printed or created in a laboratory, it is an ounce of something that has 6000 years of sentiment behind it, it is rare and becoming more so, and there will always, till the food runs out I suppose, someone else wanting to buy or barter for it.

On the current outlook, the gold price will keep going up.   And this is not directed at you Logique as you believe the same or you would not be here discussing the two's and fro's.  And we will certainly be having some bigger ones on that score from now on I believe. 

We live in *the* most interesting and terrifying times IMVHO.


----------



## sinner

Logique said:


> Fair enough Explod, but it does concern me that this thread was as bullish gold at $1900 earlier in Sept as it is now at $1620, when I think gold and silver longs ought seriously to be considering their position.
> 
> (My bolds - some good charts at the link too.)
> 
> If you think that's bad, you should hear the guy on the price of silver, and the possibility of a deflationary spiral capturing the PMs. What's the point of all this - investors should keep an open mind, there's a diversity of opinion out there.




Gee from your portrayal I thought it was gonna be a real metals bear article, but the guy says "if silver makes it to $20, it'll be the buy of a lifetime." lol...that raises a bunch of obvious questions like "if it is the buy of a lifetime at $20, then what's $25? A rounding error?" I mean...if it's the buy of a lifetime, what's $5 per unit?

Must be a real silver bull to be willing to buy a downtrend.


----------



## explod

Yesterday an entire 12 months production of silver was traded and a lot of gold.

What do other ASR's think will happen when this paper trading collapses in on itself and how long do you think it will last?

The facts of the whole thing in my view is an unbeilvable joke and think at times I must be dreaming.  

Now those last eight words ought to hit the old Plod in the guts, but who cares.


----------



## Billyb

explod said:


> Tounsend's monthly gold chart is almost the same as that posted by Uncle Festivus yesterday.  It clearly shows that the uptrend is intact.




Exactly right totally agree. The chart doesn't lie. It's *still* above it's trendline so it's premature to say a down trend has begun.

We have seen huge volume on the last few days on the CME, yesterday was huge volume accompanied by a close at the high (and rejecting a break of the trend line) suggesting that this could perhaps mark the bottom for some time. Would not be surprised to see gold stuck in the 1600 - $1750 range for some time now.


----------



## explod

Well from a low of 1540 just 25 hours ago its almost back to 1700 now.


----------



## aclassic

explod said:


> Yesterday an entire 12 months production of silver was traded and a lot of gold.
> 
> What do other ASR's think will happen when this paper trading collapses in on itself and how long do you think it will last?
> 
> The facts of the whole thing in my view is an unbeilvable joke and think at times I must be dreaming.
> 
> Now those last eight words ought to hit the old Plod in the guts, but who cares.




I heard an interesting interview on Brissy radio last night and wondered how gold fits when the guy talks on BBC about europe seeing bonds as a "safe asset" - not au or ag.

FYI here's a link re BBC interview.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/...rader-interview-that-has-tongues-wagging.html
_
Statement on BBC News channel interview with trader Alessio Rastani
Date: 27.09.2011

The BBC have today issued the following statement regarding an interview with trader Alessio Rastani on the BBC News channel yesterday (Monday 26 September):

"We've carried out detailed investigations and can't find any evidence to suggest that the interview with Alessio Rastani was a hoax. He is an independent market trader and one of a range of voices we've had on air to talk about the recession."

BBC Press Office_

cheers.


----------



## Mr Z

*UST V Gold since 2001.*

You know just occasionally UST's are better than gold BUT if you have a time frame longer than a couple of months I would say that gold is the safe play.




Short term US paper is now a defacto bank account for hedge funds, flight to cash means a flight to short term government paper. Safety only in the sense that you will get your money back on the due date, the banking system offers no such guarantee these days. So it will be until the market believes that the US is a real default risk.... but if your time frame is longer than the nanoseconds that these funds consider long term then you'd have to conclude gold is doing a much better job as a safe port. 

So is copper, silver etc... almost anything tangible.

These people cannot see the forest for the trees and have no vision beyond their next bonus. They are not paid to be good over the wider time frame... much like our pollies they can't see past the next "performance period". So safety? Yeah, kinda, in strange blinkered way... if you think cash is the right call for the very short term then gov bonds it is!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I would envisage the 'short sightedness' to the relative safety of UST's would be a short term negative for gold, especially if the Euro does finally implode on itself? We just had a rehearsal for the main event & gold tanked a bit. And if that chart was of anything else I would short it.

Depends if the net effect of those in the Euro zone swapping their Euro's for physical AU is enough to counter UST strength in the transfer period?

Put it this way, I wouldn't buy in to this rebound just yet as the inertia of the last run unwinds via profit taking, manipulation or (short term) flip into UST's?

Relative waves? If we get a similar retracement the target is around $1300-$1350?


----------



## Mr Z

I can't see that this should play the way 2008 did. It is very different in many respects and is a relatively transparent situation. Everyone knows who is exposed and by how much, add to that the long time line we had had into this, basically they have known that we end up here since Greece first hit the radar. I will be very surprised if contingencies are not planned, I will be surprised if they allow a Lehman equivalent event to take place. There is massive vested interest in preserving the Euro zone! I think that the deal is there all bar the politicking.

Satyajit Das is plumbing for complete chaos... sans that death by monetization, that is my vote.  

http://video.ft.com/v/1185437572001/Satyajit-Das-Greece-the-next-Lehman-

This is the bounciest dead cat I have seen!!! Normally it is just the one thud!

http://video.ft.com/v/1185281739001/The-power-of-hope

Can the ECB firewall the PIIGS and shore up the banks?


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Relative waves? If we get a similar retracement the target is around $1300-$1350?




I prefer to calculate potential retracement using log charts rather than linear, lest I let myself be fooled by visual phenomena that have little to do with actual price action...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> I prefer to calculate potential retracement using log charts rather than linear, lest I let myself be fooled by visual phenomena that have little to do with actual price action...
> 
> View attachment 44691
> 
> View attachment 44692




Yes, was more to emphasise the 3 major thrust-retrace-consolidate areas and relative strength of each. Also, I did the *log* thingy yesterday but only the last few years, which would be the last 3rd of your chart??. However, would you still be able to get 3 support slopes from your log chart as well, ie what is your support area(s)?


----------



## explod

James Turk puts up a good argument that cash is trash.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_sep192011.html

And dont you just love the ole buddy Kitco, lead story today "Gold falls as investors turn to US dollar" yet on the chart we see the US dollar falling off the last two days.  And that may be interwsting going into this weekend unless someone can come up with a great green shoot revellation.  And they probably will.

http://www.traderslog.com/quotes-charts/?sym=DX!&gclid=CID0tIWCoqYCFUaApAodpHmHng


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;654513 25th-August-2011 09:21 PM  said:
			
		

> Bearish Head & Shoulders Reversal forming?
> 
> Target = $1530 approx.
> 
> View attachment 44212




$1532.45 is close enough...will retest it soon!

Fascinating article - "The cruelest month for gold. October, not September, typically bad for gold"

Link


----------



## Mr Z

Chalea said:


> Fascinating article - "The cruelest month for gold. October, not September, typically bad for gold"




Yeah? Really? Pull up a monthly chart and check the voracity of that claim! Most Octobers in the last decade have closed higher than the open and have not produced a notable low. The down Octobers have been smallish in range and mostly above the Sep low. So WTF? I notice he uses three decades of data... why would you include two decades of bear market data and one of bull market data? I'd be looking at the last ten years since the $250 low if you want a realistic idea of what the end of the year typical holds in store for gold these days.


----------



## Chalea

Mr Z said:


> Yeah? Really? Pull up a monthly chart




Monthly RSI uptrend broken, (to be confirmed).

Price will follow.

Potential long term bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.




corn:


----------



## Mr Z

Really you do that? Get that out of context in reply to a post? Jeeez

Lets just wait until the last candle is complete before we throw and junior ranger T/A at it... eh?


----------



## explod

Here is a table of the most prominent gold stocks of the day listed on the Vancouver Stock Exchange (VSE) The table shows their prices at the close of December 1978, in January 1980 when gold peaked, and the highs reached by each company later in 1980. 

As some background, gold hit a correction low of US$104 in August 1976. From there gold rose and hit US$240 in November 1978 before correcting sharply and closing at US$150 in December 1978. Gold soared in 1979 and closed at US$420 before spiking at US$880 in January 1980. 

Gold then corrected to US$482 in March before rising to US$711 in September. By this point in time sentiment was extremely bullish, with everyone expecting gold to take out the US$880 peak and then onwards and up upwards through US$1000. 

https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&...&th=132b092b17837a74&attid=0.1&disp=inline&zw

Acknowledgements for sending to Steve (Gumbylearner)


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> By this point in time sentiment was extremely bullish, with everyone expecting gold to take out the US$880 peak and then onwards and up upwards through US$1000.




That sounds very much like whats happening now, Please continue the story, What happened after that, Did it just keep going up like everyone expected.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> That sounds very much like whats happening now,




Only if you completely ignore the differences in the fundamentals, they are chalk and cheese for now, really ---> oh yeah and look at those gold stocks FLY, LOL not! You really didn't give that comment any thought did you?

You are a fool if you.... oh faggitit, you are a one way street.


----------



## Mr Z

*Ya see, this is the problem with gold!*







Between you and me I'm not so sure her brain is backed by anything!


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> Only if you completely ignore the differences in the fundamentals,




Different fundamentls, I thought it was just still the same old pretty metal that it has been since time began, Sitting in the same vaults collecting dust.

I suppose their is one difference, the difference is there is much more of it above ground now than back then.

Anyway each to their own.

( P.S as with alot of my posts, My tonge is firmly in my cheek )


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> Different fundamentls, I thought it was just still the same old pretty metal that it has been since time began, Sitting in the same vaults collecting dust.
> 
> I suppose their is one difference, the difference is there is much more of it above ground now than back then.
> 
> Anyway each to their own.




Willful ignorance, I admire your dedication to it, but alas your fishing skills are lacking


----------



## Mr Z

*Dr Doug...*

... takes the scalpel to the USA.

[video=vimeo;29058918]http://vimeo.com/29058918[/video]

Yikes!


----------



## Mr Z

*Central Bank Buying...*

*Emerging nations up gold reserves*

EMERGING market countries are continuing to top up their gold reserves, with Russia, Thailand and Bolivia among those to add to their holdings in August as developing economies continue to diversify away from traditional reserve currencies. 

Recently, emerging market central banks have bought gold in reaction to the sovereign debt crises affecting the US dollar and the euro, analysts say. Demand has also risen strongly in recent quarters as some seek to diversify foreign exchange reserves that have grown along with emerging market export industries. 

The central bank of Russia, a regular buyer from its own domestic market, continued its long-term program of gold accumulation in August by adding 118,000 troy ounces to its reserves, which now stand at 27.161 million ounces, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund. 

Russia's holdings are up more than 7 per cent on the start of 2011. 

However, Russia wasn't the only country to acquire gold last month as the price on the spot market soared to record highs before touching $US1920.94 a troy ounce on September 6. There is no indication any central bank buys gold on the spot market. 

Thailand continued to boost its reserves, lifting them 300,000 ounces to 4.4 million ounces -- a significant step up from its January holdings of 3.2 million ounces.

More...


----------



## Edwood

I'm not really up with the historic records of central banks when it comes to their ability to time the gold market - do you guys think its a good thing that central banks are buying at these levels?  I would've thought they'd be last to the party, bureaucratic, acting when they're 'forced' to as opposed to when it makes good investment sense.  Personally I wouldn't be treating this as a good thing for gold longer term


----------



## Edwood

found this bit:
India historically has been a pretty bad gold investor.  Goldman Sachs:  "Since 1994, gold as a percentage of India's foreign exchange reserves  fell from just over 20% to approximately 3.6% (based on latest reserve  data of US$285.5bn on 23/10/2009)."
 So the Indian central bank essentially sold ahead of the massive gold  rally - They missed the rally.


more of the same, from '07:
[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]History  has shown that pressure is certainly applied on top of the market  during each period of elevated CB sales.  This can be no clearer  illustration than what happened after the Bank of England and Gordon  Brown announced they would sell over 400 tonnes of gold reserves,  causing prices to hit 20-year lows in what most traders now refer to as  the Brown Bottom.  In the last decade, we have also seen the Bank of  Canada sell off all of it's gold holdings, the Banks of Switzerland,  Australia, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, and France, amongst  others, also sell off a major percentages of their gold holdings into  the market.  The one thing that has held true is that the gold price has  continued to bounce back and head higher as these sales have  concluded.  

>> perhaps its well known that CB's have no idea & it was a buy signal...  
[/FONT][/FONT]


----------



## Mr Z

Central banks sell on the way down and buy on the way up. They don't have the same economic imperative that an investor does because they can simply create the currency to buy the gold. Price is not the issue, control of their currency is the issue. When you see the big central banks buying hand over fist then we are much closer to a top. The lesser ones buying just means we are trending up, they are just getting defensive against the storm of money that the US and Europe are, and will be, putting into the system.

Don't worry, the top is at least five to ten years away and the moves that will stop this gold bull will probably come from Asia not the good ol USA, they seem bound to relinquish the drivers seat before this is done.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

*Re: Ya see, this is the problem with gold!*



Mr Z said:


> Between you and me I'm not so sure her brain is backed by anything!





Thanks, that's hilarious.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: Ya see, this is the problem with gold!*



Mr Z said:


> Between you and me I'm not so sure her brain is backed by anything!





Live from Oceana


----------



## Mr Z

Gold has an image problem no? This AM I turned over some of my gold to see what it is backed by and all I found was more gold. Damn! Its a ponzi scheme!!!! Give me some of them USD right now, I don't wanna be a part of no ponzi racket with these yellow fishing weights!

::---->


----------



## Mr Z

*Rick Rule: Gold Equities Set to Outperform ”” All Fundamentals Now in Alignment (mp3)*


----------



## Mr Z

*You wanna do what? Make a gold investment? At these prices...?!*

*How to explain gold investment to your financial advisor*

"You wanna do what? Make a gold investment? At these prices...?!" - Gold is still not perceived as a safe investment by many of those who manage our money.

*Read more...*


----------



## Mr Z

*Blogging?!!!!!*

*Gold's recent sell-off and what to look out for over the next few months - Jeff Christian (Podcast)*


----------



## Mr Z

*Barry Eichengreen*

*The Dollar, the Crisis, and the Future of the International Monetary System*


----------



## Frank D

*GOLD Primary and Wekely cycles*

Gold has rotated back down into a major support level in the 4th quarter. (SUPPORT)

All trends originate from these levels and continue outward, and if the Primary
 cycle trend remains bullish it shouldn't spend anytime below SUPPORT. The last
 time that occurred was  in July 2008, when price was $922.00

The most bullish patterns have been occurring in the 2nd month of the Quarter, as
 price in the first month rotates down into support, and then the 2nd month rises
 up from support and continues outward during each individual quarterly cycle.

However, this is the first month of the quarter, and price is already trading around 
support, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the next 4 weeks consolidate around
support.

When we look at the Weekly cycles (right chart).... there is a potential
 rejection pattern around the Weekly 50% level that could see price move towards 
next week's lows and as low as the October lows

*In conclusion*:- if you are bullish and believe that GOLD is going to continue higher, 
then these are the levels that should be of most interest.

Just keep an eye on the Weekly cycle for short-term weakness.


----------



## explod

One of my favorite bloggers had this to say about the after hour moves of gold *downwards*.   Have noticed myself that it is more pronounced of late and also towards the close of trades Aussie time and just smells like pushing down the goldies, but could be wrong, anyway here's Chuck's bit;



> Speaking of Gold… Well.. it was up $15 when I came in, but is now up only $8… But still, it’s up VS the dollar which is something all the other currencies can’t say, not even Japanese yen, or Chinese renminbi today! The shiny metal has slowly risen from its brief dip below $1,600… I prefer these smaller moves in assets, especially Gold, given the propensity for the “afterhours trades” to increase when the upside moves are larger for Gold. That’s a wink, when I talk about the “afterhours trades”…
> 
> I have quite a few readers that have taken the ball on my challenge to research these “afterhours trades” on their own, and then let me know if they agree that the price of Gold & Silver is being manipulated… Well, most of them send me stuff they read, that explains the price drop of Gold & Silver, and most of them all talk about the price manipulators, or “banksters” (the bullion banks) as one article calls them… I think that the more the public is aware of what I feel is going on here, and I’m not the only one, maybe they will petition the regulators and get to the bottom of this!




full newsletter at  http://www.dailypfennig.com/   for 4th October 11


----------



## adamim1

Gold and silver look like they're heading down as I type this. I wonder if tonight we will see a retest of those lows last week!


----------



## explod

adamim1 said:


> Gold and silver look like they're heading down as I type this. I wonder if tonight we will see a retest of those lows last week!




I think we could if the flight to the US$ continues.

On the weekly we are still in the uptrend channell but a close below US$1530 would be interesting.

However it seems to be the US$ only, in most other currencies gold is still up near its highs.   

However the moves are so great that I suspect we may soon know.


----------



## GumbyLearner

explod said:


> Yep the sheeple are sh.t..ng themselves and converting to the mighty US of A dollar.   Same as last time.
> 
> I also reckon when the truth hits the 1500 gold will occur.   The sequence of steps are becoming clearer IMHO, and dont' need to repeat, you've heard them on this space before.




Geez explod. The doubters were all over you like a rash when you called the 1500 figure. Now you reckon it could touch 1550 on the decline? Nothing like accuracy in this market   Great to see you're still around. Hats off. 

Do you think we may get a touch of the de ja vu's like back in 2009?


----------



## Mr Z

*Podcast*

*Gold stock de-rating close to running its course - Blackrock (Podcast)*


----------



## GumbyLearner

Where is it heading? 

That's a bigger question today than when I started blogging here years ago.

I do not know to tell you the truth. But I still hold all the physical I bought back in 07, 08,09 and haven't bought any for a while or sold any.

If it gets smacked down to say the 1330 level, I may start to think about buying more. 

Anyway? Every man/woman for himself/herself. Like my ol'man used to say!


----------



## GumbyLearner

GumbyLearner said:


> Where is it heading?
> 
> That's a bigger question today than when I started blogging here years ago.
> 
> I do not know to tell you the truth. But I still hold all the physical I bought back in 07, 08,09 and haven't bought any for a while or sold any.
> 
> If it gets smacked down to say the 1330 level, I may start to think about buying more.
> 
> Anyway? Every man/woman for himself/herself. Like my ol'man used to say!




Good luck all!


----------



## GumbyLearner




----------



## Tysonboss1

GumbyLearner said:


>





Mmmmm,... the richer are getting richer.

But 12 years ago I was poor,... But I am richer now, Does that mean the Poor are getting richer too.

and MC hammer was rich, but then he became poor,.... Mmmmm.

Maybe it comes down to Work and sound capital allocation rather than a rich get richer poor get poorer conspiracy.

just my  nothing more.

Inregards to fiat money, it makes sense to me that the money supply should have the abiltiy to supply and contract rather than be fixed and be cornered by people who do nothing but save it.

It makes sense to me that inflation should eat into any saved money that is simply stockpiled for years earning interest, Money is meant to be fluid ever changing hands and being deployed into investments, If you have the mentality a little bit of inflation is not a bad thing,.... It's not a good thing either, it just is what it is.

And if there was no inflation then retail interest rates should be less than 1%.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Tysonboss1 said:


> Mmmmm,... the richer are getting richer.
> 
> But 12 years ago I was poor,... But I am richer now, Does that mean the Poor are getting richer too.
> 
> and MC hammer was rich, but then he became poor,.... Mmmmm.
> 
> Maybe it comes down to Work and sound capital allocation rather than a rich get richer poor get poorer conspiracy.
> 
> just my  nothing more.
> 
> Inregards to fiat money, it makes sense to me that the money supply should have the abiltiy to supply and contract rather than be fixed and be cornered by people who do nothing but save it.
> 
> It makes sense to me that inflation should eat into any saved money that is simply stockpiled for years earning interest, Money is meant to be fluid ever changing hands and being deployed into investments, If you have the mentality a little bit of inflation is not a bad thing,.... It's not a good thing either, it just is what it is.
> 
> And if there was no inflation then retail interest rates should be less than 1%.




Fantastic analysis Tysonboss1. 

I bought physical bullion back when it was 770 US dollars per ounce. 

Given your fantastic analysis supplied above, do you think I should sell my personal holdings for a 100%+ profit or look for more gains holding onto it?

What do you say Tyson Boss sell my gold or hold onto physical bullion that I own?

It's your call my man! 

What do you think? Should I sell now? 

Or are you just another fairweather contributor to this thread who should be ignored?


----------



## Mr Z

Thanks for the laugh Tyson, you are indeed a victim of Stockholm syndrome.

I really truly suggest you head off and learn how this works, you will be MUCH better off for it.

Economic reality --> www.mises.org

Try "Human Action" first.


----------



## Tysonboss1

GumbyLearner said:


> ,What do you say Tyson Boss sell my gold or hold onto physical bullion that I own?




Do what you like,

I personally own zero physical gold outside of jewellery, and my only exposure to the price of gold is my investment in BHP, So I guess in that way I am benefitting from a higher gold price.

But do I think Gold will continue it's upward trend past $3000AUD as Some of the posters have said, the answer is no I don't believe that will happen.

If I did find myself in the situation of owning bullion today, I would be selling it. Thats not advice, thats just my personal opinion, I don't want to own any physical gold, it's of no utility to me or my personal financel plan.

I own part of a gold mine through BHP, I much prefer to own a diversified miner such as BHP, But I certainly wouldn't want to be owning a gold pure play, again thats just my opinion.


----------



## Mr Z

So you have no interest in gold and no intention of buying it, you barely seem to understand why it is going up and why it will go up further than you seem to be able to conceive ---> yet you regularly let us have your uninformed and disinterested opinion on the future of gold prices.

Amazing!


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> But I certainly wouldn't want to be owning a *gold pure play, again *thats just my opinion.




And which one was that?  And when?


----------



## Tysonboss1

Tysonboss1 said:


> But I certainly wouldn't want to be owning a gold pure play, again thats just my opinion.






explod said:


> And which one was that?  And when?




Just to clarify, I have never owned a gold pure play.

there was a comma there separating the 2 phrases, so it should have been read.

"But I certainly wouldn't want to be owning a gold pure play"

then

" Again that is just my opinion "


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> 1, So you have no interest in gold
> 
> 2, no intention of buying it,
> 
> 3, you barely seem to understand why it is going up and why it will go up further
> 
> 4, yet you regularly let us have your uninformed and disinterested opinion on the future of gold prices.
> 
> Amazing!




1, No, I have interest. It is an interesting movie to watch, and as a BHP shareholder it is one of the 20 commodities that BHP produces.

2, Correct

3, Just because we disagree on the reasons it went up does not mean I don't understand it.

4, Isn't this thread all about people opinions on the future of gold prices, I didn't relise it was restricted to people who share Mr Z's opinion.


----------



## sinner

Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, Just because we disagree on the reasons it went up does not mean I don't understand it.
> 
> 4, Isn't this thread all about people opinions on the future of gold prices, I didn't relise it was restricted to people who share Mr Z's opinion.




On 3, I would point out that just because you disagree on the reasons it went up doesn't mean you *do* understand it either. I don't think Mr Z is claiming you "don't seem to understand" simply because your views disagree, but genuinely because it doesn't seem you understand!

On 4, there are no restrictions but we would appreciate some quantifying and qualifying to your statements, otherwise they are just drivel which you don't seem to have issues repeating ad infinitum. I would love to hear your explanation on a supply and demand basis on why you think gold won't go to 3000AUD. Where will the increased supply of gold come from? Where will the dropping demand come from? Personally I feel with Central Banks once again becoming net buyers in 2010 for the firs time in a long time, this has added a large amount of demand on the pool of annual gold production which has hardly kept up and in many countries in fact gone down!

EDIT: It is also worth pointing out, you are implicitly claiming you understand the economics of gold better than the economists working at Central Banks all over the world, who are buying gold at current prices.


----------



## Logique

Mr Z said:


> So you have no interest in gold and no intention of buying it, you barely seem to understand why it is going up and why it will go up further than you seem to be able to conceive ---> yet you regularly let us have your uninformed and disinterested opinion on the future of gold prices.
> Amazing!



Now this thread is picking on Tysonboss? Over in the dunce's corner with silly Logique. What would we know.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Time will tell.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, No, I have interest. It is an interesting movie to watch, and as a BHP shareholder it is one of the 26 commodities that BHP produces.




but obviously not interested enough to educate yourself enough to pass informed comment.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, Correct




Then why waste your precious effort on unproductive activity? Surely only a troll would indulge in such activity?



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, Just because we disagree on the reasons it went up does not mean I don't understand it.




No, it is the total lack of depth in your argument that tells us that.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 4, Isn't this thread all about people opinions on the future of gold prices, I didn't relise it was restricted to people who share Mr Z's opinion.




Now look pet, no one said you can't have an opinion, but please make a decent fist of it if you are going to go onto a thread about an investment and play devils advocate. 

All I am doing is pointing out to the lesser informed that your opinion on the subject is uniformed. If that is not correct defending yourself should be child's play now shouldn't it?

Anywhooo gold is heading much higher in USD terms and the forces driving it will fuel the wealth, divide literally picking the pockets of the lower part of the economy and feeding it to the higher end. That is simply how this works... econ 101... you can look forward to more and more press on the expanding wealth divide and more politicking around government solving the issue. All the while no one will mention the real cause of it and goverment will never be fingered for its role at the heart of the issue. Over time it will cause all sorts of subtle dislocations that will destroy productivity and eventually, if taken far enough, the entire economy. If producing money was all that was required to repair an economy Zimbabwe would be a African poster child, not a basket case. Sound money and saving are the very basis of a properly functioning capitalist economy, without them you have no platform on which to grow.

Just a primer...

Inflation, what you see and what you don't.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Just to clarify, I have never owned a gold pure play.
> 
> there was a comma there separating the 2 phrases, so it should have been read.
> 
> "But I certainly wouldn't want to be owning a gold pure play"
> 
> then
> 
> " Again that is just my opinion "




The problem you have with the semantic is the word *"again"*.

A gold play is in fact no different to any other investment.  Gold is also in the class of commodities and you would be aware that many central banks are accumulating gold again so as to shield themselves from the debasement currently underway with paper money.

I currently have an *investment* in AYN, this is a pure silver miner that in the last months has gone into production.  I visited this mine site back in 2004 and have studied it very closely since.  Without going into all the details this to me is a very sound investment which is also backed my by very good knowledge of the gold and silver markets, currencies movements and the big one *sentiment*

Investing among other things is in parts, we have fundamentals, we have technicals, seasonals (wave theory in this) and again the big one *sentiment*.

Gold fever has a very long history and is on the rise again.  As yet only a small part of the investment community is awake to it.  Some say we are into stage two, I believe we have not completed stage one, but as the big bullion banks have just relinquished most of thier short positions of late we maybe now crossing that line.

Anyway each to his own, but as a serious investor you may well be missing something by not doing a bit of reading up and study on this opportunity of a lifetime.  Sure a lot of people lost thier shirts back in 2008 but I know personally two people who made so much in some gold stocks then that they never had to work again.

Now I could be wrong of course, all I am saying my friend is that is is worth consideration.  Your blind dismissal does not do you justice as on most topics you do make a lot of sense and do try to be helpfull.


----------



## Mr Z

Logique said:


> Now this thread is picking on Tysonboss? Over in the dunce's corner with silly Logique. What would we know.




I dunno what you'd know mate! Maybe if you spent more time telling us we'd have a clue? Why the passive aggressive whine fest? Why not say what you actually think?


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> Time will tell.




Yes it will, but by then Tysonboss will probably have long gone and will not be around to have the conversation. 

Anyone remember Amoryhill and his constant babble about gold and why it would never go over $1000 USD? TB very much reminds me of him. Ahhhhhhh the good old days!


----------



## Mr Z

Damn... lunchtime must be over!


----------



## Mr Z

*Warning bad language!*

*Warning bad language!*

Advice to the US government!

This kind of attitude is building in the US.... sounds just like another guy in the US that I talk to sometimes.


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> Damn... lunchtime must be over!




I haven't even eaten yet! Too busy reading FOFOAs latest awesome article.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/10/rpg-update-4.html


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> Yes it will, but by then Tysonboss will probably have long gone and will not be around to have the conversation.
> 
> Anyone remember Amoryhill and his constant babble about gold and why it would never go over $1000 USD? TB very much reminds me of him. Ahhhhhhh the good old days!




The good old days?

You only joined last year!


----------



## Mr Z

LOL... yeah.

Dude, I have been around on various boards since Stock Central launched back when you where still poor. Remember that board?

Or what about ReefCap where the hardcore stock guys used to hang?

Tech/A is one of the few names I recognize here from those days.

I'm flattered that you felt compelled to check :


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> I'm flattered that you felt compelled to check :




Well it says right under your avatar, I didn't really need to launch a royal commission.


----------



## Mr Z

sinner said:


> I haven't even eaten yet! Too busy reading FOFOAs latest awesome article.
> 
> http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/10/rpg-update-4.html




Ruh ro.... ROCKETS!!! *Duck....!* I always got nervous when they posted rockets on the gold forums, never a good sign. LOL.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> Well it says right under your avatar, I didn't really need to launch a royal commission.




Anywhooooo.... Remember Amory and his rants about gold and the DOW? Funny, insane but funny. 

He must be a little shocked that we printed 1900 POG... poor auld fella would have been apoplectic!


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> Anywhooooo.... Remember Amory and his rants about gold and the DOW? Funny, insane but funny.
> 
> He must be a little shocked that we printed 1900 POG... poor auld fella would have been apoplectic!




can't say I do remember him, was he on this site.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> can't say I do remember him, was he on this site.




I can't recall... after a while they all blur 

You missed a treat, now he'd teach you how to bash gold properly!

He went by groolbasher when he was being less than subtle.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Well it says right under your avatar, I didn't really need to launch a royal commission.




Pedantic, nasty and detracting from the subject is a common problem.

If you approach your invetments in this way then I doubt that you are a successful inverstor at all.

Perhaps I should do some research on your profile and see what I can unearth.

But why bother. 

gold and silver looking good.


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> Pedantic, nasty and detracting from the subject is a common problem.




What ever explod!  how is it nasty. I even put a winky face after it. I am sure Mr Z did not take offence.

If he did then Mr Z I sincerely apoligise.

Maybe you didn't read the few threads leading up to that and you some how missed the context.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> I am sure Mr Z did not take offence.




LOL Nah... this place is a cake walk. The gold forums in the early 2000's where the battle grounds! Man talk about full of professional bashers! There where some great posters as well but they have all but gone as we get into the second phase of this thing. The gold forums either seem to be run by Nazis or inhabited by full blown Goldbugs, they just give me the creeps!

My theory is that as time goes by people will understand less and less about why gold is a good investment and be buying more for the fact that it is going up. When the level of knowledge falls away to little or nothing then we are in over reach and due to crash. So far the average level of knowledge on the forums seems to have dropped markedly but not to the dot.com type levels. By then I suspect any company with gold in its name will be flying!

Oh what fun we are going to have trading the final phase of this thing!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

We should all try to be courteous & respectful to all opinions, however lacking in detail. History will be the ultimate arbiter? This thread is littered with the carcases of gold bears - one day they will be right, but not because of a 'hunch'. 

It could be a very interesting week next as several confluences of charting patterns emerge - equities must push through resistance and PM's should resolve their direction if you are of the opinion that the recent shakeout was due to CME induced profit taking?

The CME is market manipulation at it's finest! Dirty deeds done dirt cheap! Raise margins on PM's and other hard assets and lower margins on equities and money shuffling financials?

US banks are on the hook to the Euro's as they hold the insurance on their 'obligations'

Resolution is imminent?


----------



## tothemax6

So why do people think it is reasonable to attack Tysonboss directly? If Tysonboss disagrees that gold is a buy, surely the constructive action is to debate why it is or is not a good buy? 
People here seem to be taking the bizarre and dogmatic line that opinions that differ from theirs are completed unreasonable - a line that is itself, completely unreasonable.

Mr Z is what one would call, '*a forum thug*'.
The basic recipe to become a forum thug is as follows:
You make very big posts, and if someone comments on this, you claim they aren't intelligent enough to read the post. You make multiple consecutive posts, which gives the impression of greater size than just big posts alone. You substitute rational debate and good rebuttal with *additional and unnecessaryformattingand UPPER CASE* to appear bigger and more forceful (i.e. YELLING AGGRESSIVELY, a typical thug does not recognize calm intelligent discourse as legitimate, given that he could just use intimidation). You quickly resort to personal attacks as a substitute to debating the topic at hand, and as a substitute to actual defeating your opponents points with reason (the 'heresy' mentality). 

I'd say Mr Z fits most of that, and perhaps it would be more prudent to simply refuse to read and reply to his posts.


----------



## GumbyLearner

tothemax6 said:


> So why do people think it is reasonable to attack Tysonboss directly?




TysonBoss refuses to acknowledge or understand leverage. Would you want to talk about *leverage* in the gold/silver market tothemax6?

There are plenty on this thread who are willing to do so.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Work it out for yourself.

My first reaction when I read an article on this site by Arnold Bock - articulating why gold would go to $10,000 – by 2012 no less - was amazement. Who in their right mind would suggest that gold would eventually reach $2,500, let alone $5,000 or even $10,000?  Well, I did some investigation and, believe it or not, Bock is in lofty company. Many respected individuals, such as David Rosenberg, Peter Schiff, Harry Schultz, Rob McEwen and many others, have come to the same conclusion. Below is a partial list of such individuals with sound reasons to substantiate their views.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20533.html


----------



## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> So why do people think it is reasonable to attack Tysonboss directly? If Tysonboss disagrees that gold is a buy, surely the constructive action is to debate why it is or is not a good buy?
> People here seem to be taking the bizarre and dogmatic line that opinions that differ from theirs are completed unreasonable - a line that is itself, completely unreasonable.
> 
> Mr Z is what one would call, '*a forum thug*'.
> The basic recipe to become a forum thug is as follows:
> You make very big posts, and if someone comments on this, you claim they aren't intelligent enough to read the post. You make multiple consecutive posts, which gives the impression of greater size than just big posts alone. You substitute rational debate and good rebuttal with *additional and unnecessaryformattingand UPPER CASE* to appear bigger and more forceful (i.e. YELLING AGGRESSIVELY, a typical thug does not recognize calm intelligent discourse as legitimate, given that he could just use intimidation). You quickly resort to personal attacks as a substitute to debating the topic at hand, and as a substitute to actual defeating your opponents points with reason (the 'heresy' mentality).
> 
> I'd say Mr Z fits most of that, and perhaps it would be more prudent to simply refuse to read and reply to his posts.




Yeah... lets not debate anything and call anyone who disagrees a thug while the people we support are free to insinuate the rest of us are fools etc.

Please quote the posts where I have said that Tyson is anymore that he has first suggested others are, quote and link these 'attacks' you consider personal? I suggest you use a new thread for this purpose and leave this on on topic. Just how have I "beat up on him" aside from strenuously disagreeing with him and perhaps questioning his motive, as you tend to when someone lacks substance but maintains a dogma in their posting?

*It seems to me, Mr Max, that your idea of freedom does not extend to speech, now that is irony Alanis!*

If you feel aggrieved then report the posts and have the mods censor or ban me (regulation!) but don't take us off topic whining about me simply because you have little else to contribute.

Oh yeah--> *additional and unnecessaryformattingand UPPER CASE* to appear bigger and more forceful (i.e. YELLING AGGRESSIVELY, a typical thug does not recognize calm intelligent discourse as legitimate, given that he could just use intimidation). LOL --> its is called drawing attention to the main points in the post, in a long report (you do read that type of thing, no?) a call out or highlight may be used. Here I underline things and make them bold. 

Just FYI.... ALL CAPS is considered yelling on the interweb (Clarkson humor, b4 U pounce!), that has been netiquette since the early 90's.

LOL.



Don't worry pet, I'm sure Tysonboss is OK and can stand on his own two feet.


----------



## Mr Z

GumbyLearner said:


> TysonBoss refuses to acknowledge or understand leverage. Would you want to talk about *leverage* in the gold/silver market tothemax6?
> 
> There are plenty on this thread who are willing to do so.




From earlier exchanges it seems evident that max also does not appreciate the power of unbacked leverage.


----------



## Smurf1976

Used sensibly, there't nothing wrong with highlighting a few words especially when they are used in a manner that many would likely misread or misinterpret. 

For example, "why did the chicken NOT cross the road?" seems reasonable, since many would miss the word "not" in a sentence that most have seen or heard a few hundred times at least.

Using abbreviations is another one to be careful of, especially where there are multiple meansings of the same term. ASX probably doesn't need a lot of explanation, but there's there's a rather long list of meanings for ACA, among which are the Australian Coal Association, Australian Consumers Association ("Choice") of course A Current Affair (TV program for any non-Aussies reading this).

Back on topic, we've thus far seen gold jump from $250 to not far short of $2000 (in round figures) and decent pullbacks are normal in a bull market. It's worth at least considering the propspect that those predicting $2500, $5000 etc may well be right as they don't represent unreasonable % rises from where we are today.


----------



## Logique

Mr Z said:


> I dunno what you'd know mate! Maybe if you spent more time telling us we'd have a clue? Why the passive aggressive whine fest? Why not say what you actually think?



3 recent brief posts - as you say, a fiesta of passive aggressiveness. OK I'll say what I think, tysonboss and tothemax6 are entitled to an opinion on gold. Also, I think it's fun winding you up 

If you had taken the time to read back on this thread you would realize I'm anything but a gold bear.

Gold had a good run on flight to safety, but now returning to historical (up) trend as the $USD gains strength, and world markets gaining some optimism (for now anyway).


----------



## Mr Z

Logique said:


> 3 recent brief posts - as you say, a fiesta of passive aggressiveness. OK I'll say what I think, tysonboss and tothemax6 are entitled to an opinion on gold.




Who said they where not? Just as I am allowed to appose it and or ask them to support it! BTW wasn't max a gold bull?



Logique said:


> Also, I think it's fun winding you up




LOL... wound up, no you have the wrong end of that stick mate. I'd not be making any assumptions on that front if I where you 



Logique said:


> If you had taken the time to read back on this thread you would realize I'm anything but a gold bear.




If I had taken the time? A little assumptive isn't it? I full well realise that you lean toward the bull camp, but thanks for reminding the folks at home  I razzed you a little because of the pointless posts you had been making of late, posts that did little more than infer dislike without taking any sort of solid position.



Logique said:


> Gold had a good run on flight to safety, but now returning to historical (up) trend as the $USD gains strength, and world markets gaining some optimism (for now anyway).




Is this a forecast? Are you expecting the USD and gold to rally together? If so what is the logic?

For my money we have just see a small carry trade unwind with the strengthening dollar (carry source) acting like a liquidity pump extracting liquidity from all leveraged markets that the hedgies etc are involved in. Note that the price of iron only move a little during this whole episode. Why? Because it is a bulk commodity that is not tradeable by hedge funds. Gold was one of the last to get hit because there was plenty of profit there, but in the end it was sold! That action was undertaken more by margin clerks than serious investors, those that needed to repay USD on a short time horizon to keep their funding source happy. My guess is that the leverage is all but gone now and that should keep a bid under most commodities and turn the USD south again as it is sold short in the process of carry trades going back on.

It is also interesting to note that should Ben be fixing to go QE III a "deflationary" episode would be a very handy thing, he can ride to the rescue and fight deflation at the same time the EU get around to monetizing debt. After all you can never have too much stimulus can you?  We are going into an election year, things are on the down in the US and the Euronauts look like they are going to have to take action that will further weaken the Euro against the USD. Now that just can't happen, the dollar must stay weak to support trade (a flawed position I think but none the less, the prevailing logic) and we need to make happy for the election sooooooo lets man the inflation pumps again!!! but wait... we need an excuse... hmmmm QE II didn't work very well sooooo.... hmmmm, I know!!!!DEFLATION, lets go deflation fighting!



Look out for a deflation fighting Ben coming to a town near you soon!



Ain't life grand?


----------



## sinner

Three weeks ago, a series of questions were put to the Netherlands Central Bank, known as the Dutch National Bank. ZH carried the questions, and the response posed by the DNB today.

I thought this question and its answer were particularly pertinent to our discussion here on ASF:



> _8. What is in your opinion the present function of the gold stock?_
> 
> DNB’s *physical gold holdings function as the ultimate reserve and anchor of trust in times of financial crisis*. Further, gold is being held for diversification reasons.




So there we have it. The Central Bank of a productive nation include gold and recognise gold as the ultimate asset in the reserve pool which represent the nations savings and surplus productivity.

I wonder why the DNB holds useless assets like gold as *ultimate* on its reserve balance sheet, instead of say, BHP which is a business with a gold mine. Of course it might be as simple as the fact that shares in BHP do not in any world represent the savings of a person or nation, for example, shares in BHP couldn't settle the balance of trade between two countries whereas gold meets that function quite nicely. Recent events have shown that not even sovereign bonds can correctly settle the balance of trade between countries like Germany and Greece or China and the US.

Bank of Sinner is operating under the same model as the DNB, ECB, PBoC, House of Saud, etc. Productivity on sinners part results in a positive balance of trade between sinner and the rest of the world. Sinner stores some of his wealth in the form of sovereign currency, to settle payment for bills, taxes, cost of living with other entities such as business and government. Holding this currency in a bank is a loan to the bank in the exact same sense that the Bunds held by DNB are loans to the German Bundesbank. The remaining portion which represents surplus productivity is allocated to reserves in the form of *physical gold bullion*.


----------



## tothemax6

GumbyLearner said:


> TysonBoss refuses to acknowledge or understand leverage. Would you want to talk about *leverage* in the gold/silver market tothemax6?



Really? I though his main stance was something along the lines of 'gold is a silly investment compared to stocks because it produces nothing and has no yield'.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

tothemax6 said:


> Really? I though his main stance was something along the lines of 'gold is a silly investment compared to stocks because it produces nothing and has no yield'.





Gold is not an investment, it's a method to protect your wealth against monetary supply expansion, and a tool to hedge against the collapse of fiat currency.


----------



## noirua

A view on Gold and gold shares from The Isle of Man: http://sharecrazy.com/beta/it_should_be_gold_fund/5966/it-dhould-be-gold-fund-september-2011


----------



## Mr Z

Technically the USDX looks read to rally short term. New highs? 81.xx ish? Support around 76.6x The 64$ Q is does gold gold with? or more pain? Gold 200DMA looks solid but that is $100 DOWN from here. I think we have to break POG $1700 to get clear of near term resistance. COT looking bullish but we could be range bound between 1550 and 1675 odd until we get some credible resolution of the current crisis.

Chop, chop!??

Computers trading computers on light liquidity here, all the people are nervous and have stepped back ---> I'm hearing this story from numerous sources both about stocks and futures generally. This market can and will melt up or down on any solid news, there is very little true liquidity here.

NYSE 85% High frequency trading! What a world! The cart is pulling the horse. Do we really need this or are we just killing a generation of investors? Does this seem right to you? They claim they provide liquidity, IMO for the most part that is an illusion. They certainly aid in driving extremes.


----------



## howmanyru

Starcraftmazter said:


> Gold is not an investment, it's a method to protect your wealth against monetary supply expansion, and a tool to hedge against the collapse of fiat currency.




I get your point, but how is a 500% rise in 10 years not an investment?


----------



## Tysonboss1

Starcraftmazter said:


> 1, Gold is not an investment.
> 
> 2, it's a method to protect your wealth against monetary supply expansion,
> 
> 3, and a tool to hedge against the collapse of fiat currency.




1, When I say those five words it ends in a giant arguement

2, Yes, I aggree with that. As with any commodity or real thing. But is it the best thing to hold to achieve this, and can it achieve this if it is bought at any price. What price do you see as being to high to have a resonable chance of meeting this end.

3, Again is it the best asset to hold long term as a hedge against this, and is buying it at any price going to work out well for you. obviously their is a tipping point where it becomes to expensive and to risky to hold gold, Like all assets the asset class itself does not garantee a good result,


----------



## Tysonboss1

howmanyru said:


> I get your point, but how is a 500% rise in 10 years not an investment?




Because an investment attitude looks to the asset itself to generate the return, If the expected return is going to come solely from another person paying a higher price for the same article in the future it is price speculation, not a true investment.

Profit or loss alone does not make something an investment, 

Buying anything, Gold, shares, property, artwork etc.etc and hoping it's price goes up tommorrow is specualtion, and is different to buying a producing asset and holding it and collecting the output from it over time.

Thats the difference between investing and trading, They are two very different things.

Say, I buy a farm. and I do my calculations and I work out over time through good years and bad years it should return me about $80 / acre in crops per year, and I can purchase it for $300 an acre, I am making an investment, it can operate as a sound investement for me regardless of the short term price fluctuations in the value of the farm.

But, if look at say weather forcasts and decide to buy a farm today because it looks like it might rain next week and I plan to sell the farm for a higher price after the rains come, that is pure speculation.

Same goes with property, shares and commodities (including gold)


----------



## Mr Z

Try telling people that a home in not an investment if you think that gold gets a bad reaction!

There are wide and varied definitions of what constitutes an investment, for me it has to produce income over the rate that I can get in the relative safety of a bank. Any less than that and you are speculating. In this world most of the ASX and most real estate falls into the speculation field. People getting 3% on resi with holding cost of 1% before interest are kidding themselves that they have an investment... sorry... they have a speculation. 

Anywhooo the last time I started that discussion I got many and varied ideas on what and investment was, needless to say none lined up with mine... it is not just gold buyers that are confused on that front. In the end it is just semantics, Gold is a hedge, one that is essential in this current climate and it will work until real rates go positive enough to discount the anticipated inflation rate one year forward. For now and for the foreseeable future real rates (rates - the true rate of inflation) are negative and will stay that way as a matter of policy. The rest is noise really


----------



## Mr Z

howmanyru said:


> I get your point, but how is a 500% rise in 10 years not an investment?




You invest for income, you speculate for gain. Investing should be lower risk, lower reward and greater stability, speculation fairly much the opposite. IMO gold is neither, it is a hedge, a refuge. In days gone by it was considered prudent to have 10% in gold as a permanent hedge. That idea has only just resurfaced again in the last five years. It will probably be common wisdom by the time this is all done.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> 1, for me it has to produce income over the rate that I can get in the relative safety of a bank.
> 
> 2,  In this world most of the ASX and most real estate falls into the speculation field.
> 
> 3, Gold is a hedge,




1, I agree, But I think it has to outperform the bank account after inflation. eg. a property earning say 4% free cashflow (after maintence, rates, insurance etc) would outperform a bank account at 6% because the property value (outside bubble conditions) will atleast hold pace with inflation so the 4% is a real 4% where as the 6% will reduce to 1% after inflation and income taxes are deducted.

2, Their are plenty of good companies who's businesses are generating returns in excess of bank interest and who's earnings will offer a hedge against the dollar.

3, I agree, and I always have. But at some point when the price has outperformed what it is hedging it may lose it's "safe and sound" status. It's not a hedge at any price.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> You invest for income, you speculate for gain.




You can invest for gain as well.

for example, Say a company owns an operating business and only pays out 50% of earnings and retains the other 50% those retained earnings have added value to the company, If the retained earnings are used to open more succesful stores, mines, factories etc. etc the value of the company will grow and over time it's share price should reflect this.

A person who buys this company at a fair price today can expect a capital gain over time and not be considered a speculater, If he expects the capital gain within a certain time frame, Or pays no heed to the price he pays vs it's current value then he is speculating.

2 people can buy the exact company on the same day and one can be speculating while the other investing.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, I agree, But I think it has to outperform the bank account after inflation. eg. a property earning say 4% free cashflow (after maintence, rates, insurance etc) would outperform a bank account at 6% because the property value (outside bubble conditions) will atleast hold pace with inflation so the 4% is a real 4% where as the 6% will reduce to 1% after inflation and income taxes are deducted.




In my book you are blurring speculation with investment there, you are assuming that property prices will rise in line with inflation, that is not a certainty as other factors play into the property price. You invest on what is now, you speculate on what might be. In truth all "investments" contain a degree of speculation but if you are an "investor" you leave them outside the decision, the investment should justify itself on current numbers. Australians typically negative gear property and speculate on it rising, true investors only go for cash flow positive situations, which I think has been proven to be a superior strategy in RE.   



Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, Their are plenty of good companies who's businesses are generating returns in excess of bank interest and who's earnings will offer a hedge against the dollar.




Gold is a systemic hedge, it lays out side of and is independent of the system. It rises in times of systemic stress, nothing much else fills that role quite as well as gold. You definitely can't use vehicles within the system to hedge systemic risk.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, I agree, and I always have. But at some point when the price has outperformed what it is hedging it may lose it's "safe and sound" status. It's not a hedge at any price.




Yes... and if we where at a solid five figure price I would be more concerned. The fundamentals are such that gold is close to zero risk over the mid term. Unless we have an economic epiphany and elect disciplined and responsible politicians. Is that likely? Nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> You can invest for gain as well.
> 
> for example, Say a company owns an operating business and only pays out 50% of earnings and retains the other 50% those retained earnings have added value to the company, If the retained earnings are used to open more succesful stores, mines, factories etc. etc the value of the company will grow and over time it's share price should reflect this.
> 
> A person who buys this company at a fair price today can expect a capital gain over time and not be considered a speculater, If he expects the capital gain within a certain time frame, Or pays no heed to the price he pays vs it's current value then he is speculating.
> 
> 2 people can buy the exact company on the same day and one can be speculating while the other investing.




Basically, in part, you are speculating about the future based on your knowledge of the expected fundamentals and expected future behaviors. If I where to allow that  then I would have to say that gold is an investment because given the fundamentals and expected future behaviors gold will rise in value.

That more plays to the idea that you tend to call what you are comfortable with an investment and all else speculation. Sorry, no, I invest for income TODAY and I speculate for gain TOMORROW. Most all situations these days must contain an element of both, that is due to our monetary system and the way credit works and is managed in a modern economy. It forces us all to be more the speculator and less the investor and the way the Fed is behaving they are forcing us into all speculation all the time mode. Less and less it matters about the vehicle and more and more it is all about the state of the currency at any given time. This little episode with the USD is a classic example of how the system has been skewed. It is sad but before this is done we will all be speculators or poor.


----------



## Mr Z

*Louis-Vincent Gave: The Euro Debate—Why Debt Monetization Seems the Likely Outcome (Podcast)*


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, Their are plenty of good companies who's businesses are generating returns in excess of bank interest and who's earnings will offer a hedge against the dollar




Around 57 by my criteria, many of which I wouldn't touch due to my macro view of the world.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> 1, you are assuming that property prices will rise in line with inflation, that is not a certainty as other factors play into the property price.
> 
> 2, Australians typically negative gear property and speculate on it rising, true investors only go for cash flow positive situations, which I think has been proven to be a superior strategy in RE.
> 
> 
> 
> 3, Gold is a systemic hedge, it lays out side of and is independent of the system.
> It rises in times of systemic stress, nothing much else fills that role quite as well as gold. You definitely can't use vehicles within the system to hedge systemic risk.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes... and if we where at a solid five figure price I would be more concerned. The fundamentals are such that gold is close to zero risk over the mid term. Unless we have an economic epiphany and elect disciplined and responsible politicians. Is that likely? Nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!




1, It won't match it pound for pound each year, But over time a property bought at about it's intrisic value, ie. not at speculative highs, will have it's capital value trend up as inflation devalues the money we use, Just as the price of big macs, coke etc etc go up. 

2, Agreed, Negative gearing is a perfect example of how a sound investment can be turned into a risky speculative gamble.

3, Yes gold will rise when there is panic, fear and the opposite will also occur, It can not be purchased at any time and at any price and guarantee good results for the holder, It will fluctuate, and people buying in at the heights of the panic driven fluctuation may well do very poorly.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> Around 57 by my criteria, many of which I wouldn't touch due to my macro view of the world.




There is more than 57 earning profits higher than bank interest, But you only need 10 of them to build a diversified portfoilio.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> There is more than 57 earning profits higher than bank interest, But you only need 10 of them to build a diversified portfoilio.




Sure but they are not all financially sound by my measures, investment is about the security of the dividend not the absolute amount of the dividend. Once you get fussy about the fundamental condition of the company, let alone the macro fundamentals, your list should shortened significantly. If I get fussy about the risk over and above what I can earn in a decent account the list narrows again. Then you have to ask --> Do I feel secure in a market where I consider less than 1% of the float investment quality? My answer is no, so I speculate for capital gain over investing for income and I shorten my time horizon significantly.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, It won't match it pound for pound each year, But over time a property bought at about it's intrisic value, ie. not at speculative highs, will have it's capital value trend up as inflation devalues the money we use, Just as the price of big macs, coke etc etc go up.




Given the current credit fundamentals and the woeful resi yield you are definitely speculating in resi real estate at this point in history. You cannot make the blanket assumption that it will rise inline with inflation at this point in the market. History shows us that during periods of accelerated inflation resi real estate slips in value due to the inability to reprice rent in line with general price rises. Resi real estate works at the end of this cycle and during the mild inflationary periods in the cycle as we move into the final phases of an inflationary cycle it loses in real terms. We are there, inflation is accelerating, speculation in resi from here will not end that well in real terms. Let me know when it is generally yielding 7%+ again.... which it will.

I'd rather money in the bank... and I loath that!



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, Yes gold will rise when there is panic, fear and the opposite will also occur, It can not be purchased at any time and at any price and guarantee good results for the holder, It will fluctuate, and people buying in at the heights of the panic driven fluctuation may well do very poorly.




For the last ten years you could have bought it at any point, *not that I would advocate that*. Going forward it will be the same for a while especially if you are sensible and average in your purchases. You keep talking like we are near the end of this YET not once have you pointed out WHY you feel that way? There are a mountain of issues that need to be resolved here, none of them simple, none of them with quick fixes all of them driving people to look for security outside the system. IMO you have not seen panic yet, you have only seen mounting interest in gold, it will get quite hair raising if we get a true panic. Any purchaser of gold to date will have an ample window to sell before this is done, the fundamental forces at play here are simply huge.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> Sure but they are not all financially sound by my measures, investment is about the security of the dividend not the absolute amount of the dividend. Once you get fussy about the fundamental condition of the company, let alone the macro fundamentals, your list should shortened significantly. If I get fussy about the risk over and above what I can earn in a decent account the list narrows again. Then you have to ask --> Do I feel secure in a market where I consider less than 1% of the float investment quality? My answer is no, so I speculate for capital gain over investing for income and I shorten my time horizon significantly.




Each to his own,

The risks of investment can be elliminated by sound fundamental analysis combined with application of the margin of safty principle and diversification.

If an operation is not using the margin of safty and diversification then it is much closer to specualtion, an operation holding a single stock, no matter the quality, that operation is a speculative operation.

I don't believe in following macro events,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Investment - speculation - who gives a toss?

Better debated in another thread?


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Each to his own,
> 
> I don't believe in following macro events,




Well I think you should at least take them into account,  We need every tool we can find and understand in this climate.

Most of what you say reeks of being fed by financial advisors.  They are not able to profit from trailings fees etc from gold or silver

I got rid of may last one in 2004 and it was one of the best things I have ever done.  The best was learning to make my own decisions based apon my own research.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> The risks of investment can be elliminated by sound fundamental analysis combined with application of the margin of safty principle and diversification.




If only that where so! Price is set by supply and demand for the item and the supply and demand for the currency used to price that item. With the instability we are experiencing on the currency side of the equation not considering where that market is can damage you (witness recent market action!). The problem with traditional "sound fundamental analysis" is that it only looks at the fundamentals of one half of the equation while ignoring the currency half. We are in a world where what is happening in the currency half matters more and more. Again, witness 2008 and recent market action and for that matter all the action in between. So while it is important it is not the be all and end all anymore... the world is not as it was when Warren was a boy! Other things are driving this market as well as individual stock fundamentals --> tidal waves of fast hot money. Got gold? 






Tysonboss1 said:


> I don't believe in following macro events,




I am stunned! Basically you are advocating willful ignorance when it comes to understanding the over all environment we are operating in. I must say it explains many of your attitudes and your approach to gold. Personally I prefer to sail with the tradewinds. I look bottom up on fundamentals but only in certain areas determined by the macro environment AND I always keep my mind open to short term disruptions caused by currency issues, things like rallies in carry source currencies.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> 1, Given the current credit fundamentals and the woeful resi yield you are definitely speculating in resi real estate at this point in history. You cannot make the blanket assumption that it will rise inline with inflation at this point in the market.
> 
> 2, History shows us that during periods of accelerated inflation resi real estate slips in value due to the inability to reprice rent in line with general price rises.
> 
> 3, Resi real estate works at the end of this cycle and during the mild inflationary periods in the cycle as we move into the final phases of an inflationary cycle it loses in real terms. We are there, inflation is accelerating,
> 
> 4, speculation in resi from here will not end that well in real terms. Let me know when it is generally yielding 7%+ again.... which it will.
> 
> 5, I'd rather money in the bank... and I loath that!
> 
> 
> 
> 6, There are a mountain of issues that need to be resolved here, none of them simple, none of them with quick fixes all of them driving people to look for security outside the system. IMO you have not seen panic yet, you have only seen mounting interest in gold, it will get quite hair raising if we get a true panic. Any purchaser of gold to date will have an ample window to sell before this is done, the fundamental forces at play here are simply huge.




1, Hence why I said it will function as a hedge when it is purchased at close to it's intrinsic value and outside of bubble conditions, And that an asset class in itself does not guarantee safty of principle, But rather the price you pay for it and the items quality.

2, wages will eventually follow inflation and so will rents.

3, I don't believe we will have hyper inflation, and I tend intend to hold my real estate for along time, so the actual timing of the ebbs and flows are of little concern to me. I will much rather hold my realestate collecting rent than try and time the market and dance between the asset classes. I haven't bought any real estate for along time due to it not meeting my IV estimates, But if there was a correction I might add a property to my portfolio.

4, 7% Gross rent would be about 5.6% Net free cash flow, this would indeed be a fantastic purchase, If there were some big shocks it might get there. But it would not be sitting at that level for an extended period. before that boom that started in 2001 there was a period of stagnation that saw gross yields nearly hit 6%, Offcourse this contributed to the boom.

5, I always have a bit off cash around, minimum 12 months living expenses. But I would much rather asssets, Not buying property at the moment though.

6, The issues will be fixed, and it is far from certain that there will be big shocks.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> I am stunned! Basically you are advocating willful ignorance when it comes to understanding the over all environment we are operating in. I must say it explains many of your attitudes and your approach to gold. Personally I prefer to sail with the tradewinds.




I look much more closly at each indiviual company than the macro events.

If I buy shares in a property company, it is because I liked the strength of their assets and the quality of the tenants, I like the directors capital management policy and debt levels etc.etc.

I am not looking at the macro events from the perspective of "Interest rates are going down, I better buy into a property reit because they may be up next quarter.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> The issues will be fixed, and it is far from certain that there will be big shocks.




The issues cannot be fixed by government, it is simply not possible. It is worth spending time to understand why that is so. These issues will resolve themselves in their own time, faster if not prolonged by government. There is no fix and they know it! There is only kicking the can down the road, in the same way a junkie does with another hit or an alcoholic with another drink --> it only works for so long then reality bites.

Many years ago 7% was a very normal return on real estate. From that comment I glean that your long term has not been that long in the scheme of things. Country real estate could better 10% yield as recently as the early 90's. We are now in a bubble, yields will return to and exceed those levels at some point, we always overshoot!

Macro is a lot more than interest rates moves over a quarter! We are talking about seismic shifts in the global economy, it is a little like being a farmer and ignoring a long term shift in the weather pattern. Firstly it is easier to understand and predict long term than it is tomorrows weather and the patterns and cycles are more defined than you may think possible. Predicting next quarters interest rates is a lot closer to predicting tomorrows weather, I am talking about broad undercurrents that will shape the rest of your investing life.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Mr Z said:


> 1, Many years ago 7% was a very normal return on real estate. From that comment I glean that your long term has not been that long in the scheme of things.
> 
> 2, Country real estate could better 10% yield as recently as the early 90's.
> 
> 3, We are now in a bubble, yields will return to and exceed those levels at some point, we always overshoot!
> 
> .




1, Capital city rental properties offer stability of cashflows almost unheard of in any other business, While also offering a large degree of protection against inflation. If it were offering 7% gross rent I would venture to say alot of capital would start heading into it and drive the yield lower with in a short period of time.

2, And so it should offer higher yeild than the city, There are other risk factors.

3, many areas are over priced, I have agreed with that many times. But 7% would be an over shoot, and would only last as long as other asset classes were depressed and offering high yields. ie. if the stock market started yielding say 10%, or term deposits were 9% then property may leak capital for a while.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Tysonboss1 said:


> The issues will be fixed, and it is far from certain that there will be big shocks.




There will be more 'shocks' & it is far from certain that the 'issues' will be fixed.

At least they won't be fixed on current income/expense projections, for any country with debt problems ie the usual Euro ones, Japan, & most importantly the US (China too has 'hidden' debt that is going to make llife hard for them too)

For the US to get their house in order there will be need to be recession inducing cuts to gov exp - simple maths. Or a massive increase in revenues. Or both. 

It's only a matter of time.

As for Buffet, he was just very good, and lucky, in taking advantage of the greatesst era of monetary expansion the world has seen. Otherwise known as a Ponzi scheme. Like you say, all bubbles burst eventually......this one has gone for over 40 years.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, Capital city rental properties offer stability of cashflows almost unheard of in any other business, While also offering a large degree of protection against inflation. If it were offering 7% gross rent I would venture to say alot of capital would start heading into it and drive the yield lower with in a short period of time.




Yes... but that is the times we are in, monetary inflation on a global scale at unprecedented levels has mispriced risk for over a decade. A notable feature of the pre 2008 crunch was that all assets classes rose in unison and ended up priced for perfection. 7% now seems over the top where it was once the norm but then they didn't count on massive price increase either. Here we have low prospects for growth over the next decade and low yields, it does not make sense as an investment ans is a poor prospect for speculation.

Resi property is largely driven by the capital available to the small time investors, the mom and pops. They are tapped out on their credit lines and the market is facing the demographic shift of the boomer's heading into old age. Neither of those bode well for the future especially considering what inflation will be by the time we hit 7% yields. No that will not change the scene much at all until the high inflation number that will be starts to contract. 



Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, And so it should offer higher yeild than the city, There are other risk factors.




No more so that the city, unless you are stupid, but then you can make similar mistakes in the city. It is less about risk and more about popularity and mom and pops comfort zone IMO.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, many areas are over priced, I have agreed with that many times. But 7% would be an over shoot, and would only last as long as other asset classes were depressed and offering high yields. ie. if the stock market started yielding say 10%, or term deposits were 9% then property may leak capital for a while.




7% was quite normal at one time, in saying 7% is an overshoot you are making a whole bunch of assumptions you can't really make. You are taking the current monetary conditions as normal, they are so far from normal it is not funny. Take a look at the US, if you shop smart you can get insanely high yields at the moment and it looks like they are going to get better before they get turn down again. Yet you can hardly get capital to buy housing and no one wants to take the opportunity! Depending on the conditions 7% may be no where near enough to compensate the risk. 4% is nuts when you look at the monetary inflation that has occurred!

Give me cheap money and I will show you stability of yield... metro RE yield no where near enough. I beleive the market is beginning to tell you that. Sell it my son and buy gold, you will not regret it! Even Warren had silver until he was forced out of it, he knew it made sense... he was a little early and sold way early but when you are in his position you are a little beholding to the powers that be.

OFF TOPIC... yeah I know


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> There will be more 'shocks' & it is far from certain that the 'issues' will be fixed.
> 
> At least they won't be fixed on current income/expense projections, for any country with debt problems ie the usual Euro ones, Japan, & most importantly the US (China too has 'hidden' debt that is going to make llife hard for them too)
> 
> For the US to get their house in order there will be need to be recession inducing cuts to gov exp - simple maths. Or a massive increase in revenues. Or both.
> 
> It's only a matter of time.
> 
> As for Buffet, he was just very good, and lucky, in taking advantage of the greatesst era of monetary expansion the world has seen. Otherwise known as a Ponzi scheme. Like you say, all bubbles burst eventually......this one has gone for over 40 years.




There is only one fix and the government will fight it all the way! We know that...  whatever they call it, it will = mo money! Ben has headed off down a box canyon, the only question is when does he turn around? I bet we head to a new currency, we look to be trashing the reserve right now!


----------



## wayneL

Mr Z said:


> I bet we head to a new currency




Not if, but when IMO. I might run a book on what year this happens, so place your bets right here. 

Wagers accepted in Gold and silver only.


----------



## Mr Z

Hmmmmmm tough one! It will be like the break up of the USSR, most of the population will wake up one morning and exclaim "stuff me" never saw that coming! It will seem like nothing is happening for quite a while and then all of a sudden bang, changes!

Have you read about the plans that have been put in place for the Amero, a US centered regional currency. I wonder if it will ever rear its head?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_currency_union

*and the conspiracy nuts go wild ---> boo, hiss!!!!*

It is actually supposed to have some credence!


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, I agree, and I always have. But at some point when the price has outperformed what it is hedging it may lose it's "safe and sound" status. It's not a hedge at any price.



Well put, but of course unlike say stocks, where you can calculate value based on measures like ROE, it is harder to determine 'what the value should be' with gold. It's value is highly dependent on pure politics/government action, which can thus make it very hard to calculate. Typical valuation methods for gold involve changes in monetary bases, sizes of government debts and deficits, the noises that come from central bankers, rates of credit expansion/contraction etc. All currently appear to say 'gold will steadily increase in value', except for the state of credit expansion (which is contracting because large numbers of banks overseas are more or less stuffed).

It seems your position is 'its an investment if it has a yield (i.e. dividend/rent/interest), and speculation if not'. I'd say that's fair.


----------



## explod

US$ has broken below recent uptrend line.

If it continues through the night expect gold to rise.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

howmanyru said:


> I get your point, but how is a 500% rise in 10 years not an investment?




I choose to view it as a fall in the value of fiat currency, rather than a rise in the value of gold.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, Yes, I aggree with that. As with any commodity or real thing. But is it the best thing to hold to achieve this, and can it achieve this if it is bought at any price. What price do you see as being to high to have a resonable chance of meeting this end.




The price should rise with the increase in monetary supply.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, Again is it the best asset to hold long term as a hedge against this, and is buying it at any price going to work out well for you. obviously their is a tipping point where it becomes to expensive and to risky to hold gold, Like all assets the asset class itself does not garantee a good result,




For gold to be expensive, it would have to cost much much much much much more than it does now. In my own opinion.

There are 7Bn humans on Earth and only 165,000 mt of gold. Now divide the fiat currency value of everything real that exists in the world (land, structures, equipment, etc) by the amount of gold that exists and compare it to the average networth of a person (even in a "wealthy" country such as Australia).

The bottom line is, gold is worth a hell of a lot more than what it sells for now. The only reason it is so low, is we still have fiat currency and it still has not undergone hyperinflation. One of these two will have to change in the coming decade or so.


Call it a difference of perspective to refer to gold as an investment or not; one thing I am adamant about however, is that it's value will be the world very soon.

I do not even hold any gold, I don't think it's the best _investment_ right now as I do not view it as an investment at all. Once a point is reached however, at which I feel that I can no longer invest my money such as to complete with the preservation of value in gold due to rapidly devaluing fiat currencies, I will shift my entire accumulated wealth into gold - and it's price in fiat currency at that time will be irrelevant to me.

Now I could be wrong, but honestly I'm not a very materialistic person so I don't care :


----------



## Tysonboss1

"the price will increase with the money supply" 

That's my point though, for nearly a decade gold has increased much, much, much more than the inflation of the money supply.

You also said that gold should be valued at the total sum of every piece of the economy, that's just rubbish. The total value of the money supply is far less than the total value of every thing, the total value of say the earth would be millions of trillions, but this does not mean there had to be millions of trillions worth of currency, the same dollar can be spent 10 times a day.

And as much as the gold bugs like, gold is not going to be the base of any major currency in the future, no world government is going to put themselves in that position,


----------



## Tysonboss1

wayneL said:


> Not if, but when IMO. I might run a book on what year this happens, so place your bets right here.
> 
> Wagers accepted in Gold and silver only.




I think we will see $200 big macs before the green back is replaced, I think outside of any sort of American continent version of the euro appearing, or world currency, the chance of new currency is zilch.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Tysonboss1 said:


> "the price will increase with the money supply"
> 
> That's my point though, for nearly a decade gold has increased much, much, much more than the inflation of the money supply.




Than inflation or than money supply? "Inflation" stated as CPI is irrelevant as it's not a measure of anything useful.










Tysonboss1 said:


> You also said that gold should be valued at the total sum of every piece of the economy, that's just rubbish. The total value of the money supply is far less than the total value of every thing, the total value of say the earth would be millions of trillions, but this does not mean there had to be millions of trillions worth of currency, the same dollar can be spent 10 times a day.




It's rather because a lot of the networth of the world (eg. housing markets) are highly leveraged, and are owned through debt rather than real capital, and are hence inherently overpriced.



Tysonboss1 said:


> And as much as the gold bugs like, gold is not going to be the base of any major currency in the future, no world government is going to put themselves in that position,




It doesn't have to; it may well come by as a result of a revolution.

Regardless, any new currency that will ever come about will be able to be exchanged with gold.


----------



## Mr Z

Tysonboss1 said:


> "the price will increase with the money supply"
> 
> That's my point though, for nearly a decade gold has increased much, much, much more than the inflation of the money supply.




and for 25 years before that the price of gold fell against an increasing money supply. Golds price has nothing to do with the money supply per se. I will say it once again --> Golds value relates to the opportunity elsewhere in the economy which is best expressed in real rates (General interest rates less the real rate of inflation). If they are negative, and they are very negative in the US, almost all capital is losing value. Some capital can find returns above the real rate of inflation but much of it will start to seek shelter in tangible assets, the #1 being gold. Banks are turning away capital in the US, they can't lend it, corporations are sitting on capital because they can't use it effectively. There is close to no new opportunity in the economy as things stand and yet the government is still expanding the money supply at a ferocious rate. Do the maths? What would you as Mr Saver USA do? Put it in a bank at close to 0% less fees and charges? Buy bonds that are going backwards against inflation at around 8%? Or buy a tangible asset that has increased at 20% compound in USD and will continue to do so until the US muddles its way out of this hole or just gives up on creating new money. It is a no brainer... it really is!!!! Now should we look a Europe and what is going on there...

Gold is a crisis hedge, the global monetary system is in crisis. The is no near term solution, that they will consider, that will work. There is a solution but it involves far to much pain to be used by any elected government. So they will print mo money!!! Got gold?



Tysonboss1 said:


> And as much as the gold bugs like, gold is not going to be the base of any major currency in the future, no world government is going to put themselves in that position,




That is right, gold could no longer serve a currency for any more than a short stabilization period, and I am sure that no government would willingly choose that. Nor would any rational gold holder want it to, gold has value because it is outside the system. For the value of its position as a globally recognized reserve asset to be maximized it must remain the alternate store of value that is no ones debt. Being tied to any national currency is a bad thing for gold and it seems is view as a bad thing for the currency ---> note the actions of the Swiss recently! The worlds currencies are in what is known as a competitive currency devaluation, basically it becomes a negative feedback loop. Typically it also leads to a few other nasties following in its wake but thats all a bit gloomy so lets not go there.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Starcraftmazter said:


> Regardless, any new currency that will ever come about will be able to be exchanged with gold.




Same with any good or service produced buy the companies and assets I own.

If there was a new currency or even if gold did become the currency, My vairous businesses and assets i own would simply start accepting it as payment.


----------



## Mr Z

*RMB Denominated Gold Contract Launched*


----------



## Edwood

price action still not looking particularly flash, sub 1500 coming up imo


----------



## sinner

Tysonboss1 said:


> And as much as the gold bugs like, gold is not going to be the base of any major currency in the future, no world government is going to put themselves in that position,






Do you even have any idea what you are talking about? 

Latest ConFinStat from the ECB October 2011.



Hint, if you can't find the gold, it's *number ONE on the list in the assets column*. 

What about Euro reserves, since the inception of the Euro, as measured by the quarterly Mark To Market ECB ConFinStat?




H/T FOFOA.


----------



## Tysonboss1

sinner said:


> Do you even have any idea what you are talking about?
> 
> Latest ConFinStat from the ECB October 2011.
> 
> 
> 
> Hint, if you can't find the gold, it's *number ONE on the list in the assets column*.
> 
> What about Euro reserves, since the inception of the Euro, as measured by the quarterly Mark To Market ECB ConFinStat?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> H/T FOFOA.




I didn't say that reserve banks wouldn't hold it as an asset.

I said it would not be the base of a major currency, eg Printing note's that can be redeemed for a fixed amount of gold or silver like they did back in the day.

This statment from Bernanke sums it up.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Hey guys 

A few pages ago, someone posted a very funny news segment, where the reporter claimed that investors are unsure about gold because it's not backed by anything as opposed to the USD which is backed by a printer.

Anyway, the video has been taken off due to copyright infringement, and I'm wondering if anyone saved it, because it's honestly one of the funniest things I have seen all year, and wish to share this joy with others on an ongoing basis.

Thanks


----------



## Whiskers

Tysonboss1 said:


> I didn't say that reserve banks wouldn't hold it as an asset.
> 
> I said it would not be the base of a major currency, eg Printing note's that can be redeemed for a fixed amount of gold or silver like they did back in the day.




I agree.

The gold that some countries hold these days is not in any way being used a backing for their currency, maybe asset backing for some debt... but mainly just as an asset or investment to trade with to ultimately expand their consolidated revenue.

As a matter of interest, how much gold does Greece and the rest of the PIIGS still actually hold?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Gold rally anyone? 



Whiskers said:


> As a matter of interest, how much gold does Greece and the rest of the PIIGS still actually hold?




Mixed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve


----------



## aclassic

Greetings,

I know I'm an economic illiterate, but what's the chance of :

Say if gold was ever adopted as the international currency, the world's grubs in charge could include warrants say like PMGOLD so that then the US etc etc could then have fiat gold.
Unlikely?  
What would be the POG then?

Cheers.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

*1 tonne gold coin*

Excuse me for gloating that Perth Mint just blew the Canadian Mint's "biggest gold coin" record out of the water http://www.1tonnegoldcoin.com/, theirs was only 100kg.

I'm not sure what the coin premium is if you want to buy it. 5% on $53 million metal value = $2,650,000


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Bron Suchecki said:


> Excuse me for gloating that Perth Mint just blew the Canadian Mint's "biggest gold coin" record out of the water http://www.1tonnegoldcoin.com/, theirs was only 100kg.
> 
> I'm not sure what the coin premium is if you want to buy it. 5% on $53 million metal value = $2,650,000




Thats a decent novelty coin to have in the collection, It's going to be a good marketing gimik for them, the gold probably belongs to people holding gold paper, So it basically costs them nothing to hold it except the cost to make it, So its a good low cost marketing exercise for them.

to me it's a good representation of why I will never invest in gold, It looks good, But it just sits there.


----------



## Junior

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Tysonboss1 said:


> But it just sits there.



  ....and potentially appreciates in value, then you can sell for a profit, and someone else can have it sitting there too.


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Junior said:


> ....and potentially appreciates in value, then you can sell for a profit, and someone else can have it sitting there too.




Yeah, or it will collapse in market value 1979 style and sit there for 20 years.

I will buy assets that throw of income while I wait.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Bron Suchecki said:


> Excuse me for gloating that Perth Mint just blew the Canadian Mint's "biggest gold coin" record out of the water http://www.1tonnegoldcoin.com/, theirs was only 100kg.
> 
> I'm not sure what the coin premium is if you want to buy it. 5% on $53 million metal value = $2,650,000




Well, I know what I want for Christmas! 


Also, I heard the government records everyone who buys gold and how much they hold. Is this true? Does this have any repercussions so far as gifting gold (and other precious metals) to others?

Cheers


----------



## explod

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Tysonboss1 said:


> Yeah, or it will collapse in market value 1979 style and sit there for 20 years.
> 
> I will buy assets that throw of income while I wait.




And how do you know it will do that again.

Oh, I know, cause your financial advisers say so.  No interest or trailing fees.

If you really do the sums, inflation is equal to the rate of the gold price rise.  

Now for a bit of homework it would be good for you to do a mind map on that for yourself.


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



explod said:


> 1, And how do you know it will do that again.
> 
> 2, Oh, I know, cause your financial advisers say so.  No interest or trailing fees.
> 
> 3, If you really do the sums, inflation is equal to the rate of the gold price rise.
> 
> Now for a bit of homework it would be good for you to do a mind map on that for yourself.




1, Offcourse I don't know for sure, Maybe the question should be "How can you know it won't" It is certainly not outside the realms of possiblilty.

2, Nope, you know nothing, I don't use financial advisers, Never have and never will.

3, No it is not, and even if that were so, why should I rush to by it know, plenty of other assets that will hold value inline with inflation while throwing off income.


----------



## explod

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, Offcourse I don't know for sure, Maybe the question should be "How can you know it won't" It is certainly not outside the realms of possiblilty.
> 
> 2, Nope, you know nothing, I don't use financial advisers, Never have and never will.
> 
> 3, No it is not, and even if that were so, why should I rush to by it know, plenty of other assets that will hold value inline with inflation while throwing off income.




1.   A good trend follower goes with it.  The trend in gold is perfectly intact.  When it falls outside the line *then* one steps away.

2.   Several months ago you stated that you did, in fact you said you had two.  Starting to shift on the feet are we.

3.   Very few.  Property is done for the time being.  Resource stocks and banks looking doubtfull given the current world climate.

Gold looking to put in its very best week since December 2008.


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



explod said:


> 1.   Several months ago you stated that you did, in fact you said you had two.  Starting to shift on the feet are we.




That is complete and utter B/S I have never said such a thing,

I bet you can not find any post where I have said that I use a financial advisor, 

In fact I bet you $100 that you can't find one. If you think I have said it in that last few months you should beable to find it pretty fast, so if you can't come up with a refrence or link to it we will know you are full of S#@T


----------



## explod

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Tysonboss1 said:


> That is complete and utter B/S I have never said such a thing,
> 
> I bet you can not find any post where I have said that I use a financial advisor,
> 
> In fact I bet you $100 that you can't find one. If you think I have said it in that last few months you should beable to find it pretty fast, so if you can't come up with a refrence or link to it we will know you are full of S#@T




Must have been someone else but could have sworn it was you, so apologies for that.


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



explod said:


> 1.   A good trend follower goes with it.  The trend in gold is perfectly intact.  When it falls outside the line *then* one steps away.
> 
> 3.   Very few.  Property is done for the time being.  Resource stocks and banks looking doubtfull given the current world climate.
> 
> Gold looking to put in its very best week since December 2008.




1, Well you didn't see the nearly $300 drop that came a few months back, What would it take before the trend is broken, If you waited for another $300 drop you would be giving away alot $$$.

3, No, There is lots of value at the moment, great businesses selling at prices that will asure investors see not only price growth that outpaces inflation but also produces cashflow.

For a real common example, BHP- Is going to double in price before gold does and it pays a ever growing divvy.

As a case study lets watch it, 

Bhp closed at $38.69 Today
gold is closed at $1749 today

Bhp will hit $77.38 ( with dividends added back ), long Before Gold hits $3498.

( IMHO Bhp will hit this level inside 5 years )


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



explod said:


> , so apologies for that.




Accepted.


----------



## explod

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



> Tysonboss1;666639]1, Well you didn't see the nearly $300 drop that came a few months back, What would it take before the trend is broken, If you waited for another $300 drop you would be giving away alot $$$.




We all saw the $300 drop.  A drop of some 22%.  In 2008 it had one of about the same percentage (now that could be an ominous sign for your stocks) and also in 05/06.  So that sort of volatility has been the character of this trend.



> 3, No, There is lots of value at the moment, great businesses selling at prices that will asure investors see not only price growth that outpaces inflation but also produces cashflow.




Not able to comment as I am purely a long to medium term trend follower.



> For a real common example, BHP- Is going to double in price before gold does and it pays a ever growing divvy.
> 
> As a case study lets watch it,
> 
> Bhp closed at $38.69 Today
> gold is closed at $1749 today
> 
> Bhp will hit $77.38 ( with dividends added back ), long Before Gold hits $3498.
> 
> ( IMHO Bhp will hit this level inside 5 years )




In the last 10 years BHP has gone from $10 to 38 dollars.  With dividends thats not too bad.  In the last 10 years gold has gone from $260 per ounce to $1700 dollars which at 650% is a bit better.

About the future.  Gold is all about the value of currencies.  With underlying inflation on the rise, we expect fuel for example to be $2 a litre soon, our paper money is buying less each day so gold on this basis alone will continue its rise.  And if the consumers have to soon choose between the nice extras and food, perhaps BHP will have some problems meeting your expectations.

Gold looks better for this ole black duck.


----------



## Billyb

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, Well you didn't see the nearly $300 drop that came a few months back, What would it take before the trend is broken, If you waited for another $300 drop you would be giving away alot $$$.
> 
> 3, No, There is lots of value at the moment, great businesses selling at prices that will asure investors see not only price growth that outpaces inflation but also produces cashflow.
> 
> For a real common example, BHP- Is going to double in price before gold does and it pays a ever growing divvy.
> 
> As a case study lets watch it,
> 
> Bhp closed at $38.69 Today
> gold is closed at $1749 today
> 
> Bhp will hit $77.38 ( with dividends added back ), long Before Gold hits $3498.
> 
> ( IMHO Bhp will hit this level inside 5 years )




If BHP does what you say it will (and you have NO IDEA Mr share price forecaster) then trend followers will be on it. Just like they were on gold for the past 10 years...

Yes the $300 drop was very predictable - the only question was WHEN. Volatility is EXPECTED in any powerful long term trend especially if it's been going strong to 10 years!- If you get spooked by short term volatility you can never successfully ride long term trends.

The gold PRIMARY trend is still UP until proven OTHERWISE.


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Billyb said:


> (and you have NO IDEA Mr share price forecaster) .




I am not a share price forecaster, I have no idea where share prices will go short term. How ever I do know that over time share prices follow value.

And once normality has returned to the markets a company like BHP can easily trade at 15 times earnings which would bring it's price to $59.00 add to that 5 years of retained earnings invested into more growth projects and share buybacks and BHP's earnings in 5years could easily be over $5.5 / share. at 15 times earnings $82.5 add back the dividends and you will see my target price is easily reached.

Gold on the other hand doesn't grow, So it's value will rise and fall with buying and selling, and it's trading range should edge along with inflation. But there is certainly no reason for it to double again and again and again out side of inflation  like BHP will over time.


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Billyb said:


> Yes the $300 drop was very predictable - the only question was WHEN. Volatility is EXPECTED in any powerful long term trend especially if it's been going strong to 10 years!- If you get spooked by short term volatility you can never successfully ride long term trends.




personally I love volatility, I especially love prices going down, because I focus on value.

But a trend follow by definition ignores value and follows trends, So must sell out once the trend ends, But how far does it have to drop before you believe the trend is over. Would it have to drop $600.


----------



## Billyb

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Tysonboss1 said:


> I am not a share price forecaster, I have no idea where share prices will go short term. How ever I do know that over time share prices follow value.
> 
> And once normality has returned to the markets a company like BHP can easily trade at 15 times earnings which would bring it's price to $59.00 add to that 5 years of retained earnings invested into more growth projects and share buybacks and BHP's earnings in 5years could easily be over $5.5 / share. at 15 times earnings $82.5 add back the dividends and you will see my target price is easily reached.
> 
> Gold on the other hand doesn't grow, So it's value will rise and fall with buying and selling, and it's trading range should edge along with inflation. But there is certainly no reason for it to double again and again and again out side of inflation  like BHP will over time.




 Based on your calculations it seems that yes perhaps BHP will double in value and yes I agree over the long term share prices do have a tendency to follow value. 
However I think the correlation between value and share prices is pretty hit and miss except over the very long term. In the medium term, what is happening to the value investor's account balance when he is holding stocks (or anything) during a bear market because those stocks are good value? Trend followers will be in cash or on the short side.



Tysonboss1 said:


> But how far does it have to drop before you believe the trend is over. Would it have to drop $600.




There is technical criteria or mathematical algorithms that most trend followers use to enter/exit trades, and this varies between traders. There are many trend followers who would have exited gold on this dip but will re-enter when/if their criteria says it's time to do so. 

I spose value investors love shares because they are easy to value and quantify future growth; but as we have seen in GOLD over the last decade, Just because you can't think of a VALUE-BASED REASON why it should go up does not mean it wont go up up and UP! (And vice versa also i.e down).


----------



## Billyb

By the way I think it depends a lot on the individuals goals and philosophies, Gold is not going to produce income, only capital gains, so obviously someone who is looking for regular income from their investments is better of elsewhere. However looking at the overall capital returns on gold...I would happily ditch income for that..


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> However looking at the overall capital returns on gold...I would happily ditch income for that..




I think it would be a mistake to think the next 10 years will be the same as the last when it comes to gold.

If you hold gold over the longterm you can only really expect it to match inflation, offcourse there will be times where it is in favour and it will rise but there will be times when it is out of favour and it will fall. 

In 100 years an ounce of gold will still just be an ounce of gold, to think it can go up an up an up outside of inflation forever is a bit silly.

think of a company like Coca-cola, 100 years ago it sold for $2000 because it was just a company that sold syrup to soda fountains in a couple of states, at the time an ounce of gold was just an ounce of gold.

Over the next 100 years, coca-cola's business generated earnings that it paid to investors as dividends and also reinvested back into growing the company. 

Today coca-cola manufactures and sells syrup in almost every country on earth, it owns bottleing plants around the world, owns many more brands of soda, fruit juice, bottled water, Beer, canned foods and packaged fruit, it generates Billions in earnings.

All that from a company that sold for $2000. But an ounce of gold is still just an ounce of gold.

If you are after capital gains, a lump of metal has no chance of beating a great operating business over time, Time is the friend of a great business and the enemy of a lousy investment.

Out of all the worlds millionaires and billions, can you name any that started from nothing and became mega rich by simple buying and holding gold, I don't think so.

I think you will find they all got rich by holding operating buisinesses and other assets, not sitting on a lump of gold.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> I think it would be a mistake to think the next 10 years will be the same as the last when it comes to gold.
> 
> If you hold gold over the longterm you can only really expect it to match inflation, offcourse there will be times where it is in favour and it will rise but there will be times when it is out of favour and it will fall.
> 
> In 100 years an ounce of gold will still just be an ounce of gold, to think it can go up an up an up outside of inflation forever is a bit silly.




You still do not get the idea we are trying to explain.

Gold is a hedge, or insurance if you like as *part* of ones portfolio to safeguard against the devaluation of money.

http://www.gata.org/node/10623

And this message is getting through.

There are many examples of other uses too, just one, was the Jewish community that did escape Nazi Germany and preserved a geat deal of equity by escaping with gold in thier pockets.

To answer another question you put a few posts back, I also delve in shares.  In the last month for example I purchased PXS for .86 cents and sold them on Monday for $1.40  That is from just keeping the ear to the ground and being ready to pounce.  As it is in my self managed super fund I only pay 16% capital gains.

I do not own gold myself, but physical silver.  My interest in the gold price has been an education for me on currencies and it is an alert system to some degree on my silver.

A sell point for me on gold as a trend foillower would be US$1550.  Our recent low was about $1600 so the trend is intact for the time being.  It is merely bouncing around the long term up channel.

Many of the points you raise *I think*, seem to be about trying to convince yourself.  Most on the gold thread do not need any convincing that gold on its current course, both fundamentally and chart wise, will continue to rise for the foreseeable future in line with the last ten years trend.  Of course if we see a parabolic rise straight up by 70 odd% in four or five days as it did in 1980 we may be ready to sell quick.  Its not there yet.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> I think it would be a mistake to think the next 10 years will be the same as the last when it comes to gold.
> 
> If you are after capital gains, a lump of metal has no chance of beating a great operating business over time, Time is the friend of a great business and the enemy of a lousy investment.
> 
> Out of all the worlds millionaires and billions, can you name any that started from nothing and became mega rich by simple buying and holding gold, I don't think so.
> 
> I think you will find they all got rich by holding operating buisinesses and other assets, not sitting on a lump of gold.




Gold needs to be treated differently to shares, you buy it when the timing is good and you sell it when the timing is good. You can base the timing on fundamentals or technical criteria but you can't just hold it forever like what Buffett did for Coca Cola. 

If you have a rigid Buffett philosophy then gold will not be appealing, which is a shame because clearly it's proven itself to be a profitable investment. Whether it stays that way for another 10 years is another question but the primary trend is still up so I wouldn't be surprised if it continues in that direction for a while yet.


----------



## Mr Z

Inflation, gold, inflation, gold blah, blah, blah... you'd have to be a financially illiterate moron who can't use a calculator or read a chart to think that there is any real connection between inflation and gold.

Return to normal markets.... blah, blah, blah.... LOL--> Yeah that is going to happen right around the end of this gold bull market. This sort of blather just shows you people really don't get what is happening here!

Honestly people don't chat to monkeys about anything other than bananas and sex, they can't make sense of anything else.

Haven't you lot done this a hundred times already? Lets stick to something gold related and interesting and leave the boring old hack anti opinions behind.... been listening to crap like this for ten years now.


----------



## Billyb

Tysonboss1 said:


> All that from a company that sold for $2000. But an ounce of gold is still just an ounce of gold.




A piece of land is still just a piece of land and yet I don't think you would class property investment as a waste of time like you do gold. Because you know with LAND the current value is determined by SUPPLY AND DEMAND and yet with gold  you seem to conveniently forget this fact and just treat it like a rock.


----------



## Billyb

Mr Z said:


> Inflation, gold, inflation, gold blah, blah, blah... you'd have to be a financially illiterate moron who can't use a calculator or read a chart to think that there is any real connection between inflation and gold.




It's really quite simple even  a moron can get it! Prices going up =  bull market = good. All the rest is shenanigans and complexities.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Billyb said:


> A piece of land is still just a piece of land and yet I don't think you would class property investment as a waste of time like you do gold. Because you know with LAND the current value is determined by SUPPLY AND DEMAND and yet with gold  you seem to conveniently forget this fact and just treat it like a rock.




I would never buy a piece of vacant land and just hold it, that would be a waste of time and it is very similar to buying gold.

Offcourse If I built a house on the land and rented it out, then that leasing operation becomes a business in itself, the land is still just a piece of land that sits there and will go up and down but roughly hold pace with inflation similar to gold, maybe the land may improve it real terms in value if population growth causes it to grow say 0.5% to 1% per year outside of inflation.

But the house is an operating business, that throws of cashflow.


----------



## explod

Billyb said:


> It's really quite simple even  a moron can get it! Prices going up =  bull market = good. All the rest is shenanigans and complexities.




What if you are not even a moron.

Gold has 6000 years of sentimental value; and sentiment when it really takes hold sends things through the roof.  Only have to look at what happened to property the last three years.

The other one is that it is rare.  Good land will soon be rare too and a lot of people down here I am talking to are landbanking along with putting some gold away too. 

Less that .05% of the world are even thinking of gold yet.  Just watch this space when *sentiment* does start to kick in.

IMHO of course.


----------



## Tysonboss1

*Re: 1 tonne gold coin*



Tysonboss1 said:


> For a real common example, BHP- Is going to double in price before gold does and it pays an ever growing divvy.
> 
> As a case study lets watch it,
> 
> Bhp closed at $38.69 Today
> gold is closed at $1749 today
> 
> Bhp will hit $77.38 ( with dividends added back ), long Before Gold hits $3498.
> 
> ( IMHO Bhp will hit this level inside 5 years )




Any body want to bet a bottle of Bundy Rum that I am wrong on this.


----------



## Mr Z

Who really cares? They are different investments held for different reasons... if you are thinking its BHP or Gold then you are simply not thinking.


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> I think you will find they all got rich by holding operating buisinesses and other assets, not sitting on a lump of gold.



Sure, this is usually the case.
The point it (although I think some in this thread do believe that gold is _always_ a good investment) _currently_ there are a lot of good reasons to expect high inflation in many parts of the world, _in the near future_. The current widespread use of the printing press by governments to monetize their debts (currently EU, US, Japan, i.e. 'the biggies' are all printing money to hold their debt problems at bay), can only mean heavy inflation. Gold responds much better that stocks to heavy inflation.

I pose the following question to you: suppose you knew a lot about farming and meteorology, and you were pretty certain that the years sugar crop was going to be destroyed, would you refuse to take a futures position on sugar because 'it just sits there', and 'doesn't provide a long term investment'?


----------



## Mr Z

Only problem is that gold is not correlated with inflation.


----------



## cynic

Mr Z said:


> Only problem is that gold is not correlated with inflation.




Perhaps not. 

Although I haven't studied PM's as extensively as your good self, would you agree that in recent times the inflationary effects of US currency printing have been a significant contributor to the upward momentum of the gold price?


----------



## Billyb

cynic said:


> Perhaps not.
> 
> Although I haven't studied PM's as extensively as your good self, would you agree that in recent times the inflationary effects of US currency printing have been a significant contributor to the upward momentum of the gold price?




If gold is correlated to inflation, which country's inflation? The US? A mixture?
To show whether there is a correlation all we need is a graph of the inflation rates (eg from the US) vs Gold price over time. Anyone got that data?

Many would have already seen this graph which suggests gold is not correlated with inflation
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

Why does the red line drop drop so significantly after 1980 (note the blue line stays relatively stable during that drop). Clearly gold didn't protect you from inflation during that period.

That website I posted has some really good articles on inflation BTW.


----------



## Billyb

Cumulative inflation rate in the US

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/...flation/Cumulative_Inflation_by_Decade_sm.jpg

Based on the available data it seems Mr Z is right. I keep saying IMO gold is more of a sentiment hedge, it seems to go up when fear is widespread. Often fear and inflation come hand in hand but not always apparently


----------



## Mr Z

cynic said:


> Perhaps not.
> 
> Although I haven't studied PM's as extensively as your good self, would you agree that in recent times the inflationary effects of US currency printing have been a significant contributor to the upward momentum of the gold price?




It is a part of the equation, a necessary part but it only matters when real rates go negative, from the point that you cannot get a safe rate of return over the rate of monetary inflation gold rises in value. CPI rising (layman's inflation) or real inflation (monetary expansion) on its own is not sufficient to put gold into a bull market. Basically all major monetary inflations have two significant parts. The initial part is when all the positive expansionary effects of the inflation are experienced, during this part it is possible to achieve a real rate of return over the rate of inflation. While this is the case gold is not attractive hence inflation can be on the rise and the price of gold can fall. During the second part of an inflation when growth falters and you enter the stagflationary period (or inflationary depression period?!) the point arrives at which it becomes increasingly difficult to gain a safe return over the rate at which your money is losing value. This is the point that a bull market in gold begins and conversely it ends when a major safe haven currency (reserve or possibly other) offers rates of return that exceeds the anticipated inflation rate approximately one year forward.

Looking at inflation alone will only give you a 50% chance of calling a gold bull market correctly as the real correlation is to negative real rates but admittedly you need decent inflation to send real rates negative. Run the numbers and you will find the inflation/gold price correlation is close to zero as is gleefully pointed out in many anti gold arguments. Historically gold has not been a good inflation hedge, realestate has been better over longer periods BUT when the real rate goes negative the situation reverses. This is the condition we increasingly have around the world today and if we run true to form it should persist for a decade or so more and it should result in a major gold price spike down the line. So far we are running to script for a good 10 years more of this crud... but there is the possibility that policy changes and we take action that will stop it sooner. Don't hold your breath for it!

Thats is my


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Seriously, can nobody answer my question about holding gold? I would imagine at least someone here would have experience with this.


----------



## Mr Z

If you buy more than 10K AUD of physical gold they take your particulars and want poof of ID.


----------



## Mr Z

I have been told that may now be a 5k limit... its been a while since I have bought less than 10K so that may well be the case.

Phone a bullion dealer and ask!


----------



## Ageo

Anything over 5k in "cash" purchases is now becoming mandatory practice to obtain ID checks etc...

This of course is just the beginning as down the track it will be "all" purchases will require ID.

Another part in government control and the abolishment of cash.


----------



## tothemax6

Billyb said:


> If gold is correlated to inflation, which country's inflation? The US? A mixture?
> To show whether there is a correlation all we need is a graph of the inflation rates (eg from the US) vs Gold price over time. Anyone got that data?
> 
> Many would have already seen this graph which suggests gold is not correlated with inflation
> http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm
> 
> Why does the red line drop drop so significantly after 1980 (note the blue line stays relatively stable during that drop). Clearly gold didn't protect you from inflation during that period.



The 1980 event was Paul Volcker (Fed) ramping up interest rates to 20% to arrest inflation. When one says 'Gold is correlated to inflation', one does not necessarily mean correlation with no relative time shift. Gold front-runs inflationary signals. Wiemar german investors would not have simply watched their government monetize their debts, and _waited_ until inflation took hold - they buy real assets immediately.
Some monetary base vs gold price charts might be interesting.


----------



## explod

Starcraftmazter said:


> Seriously, can nobody answer my question about holding gold? I would imagine at least someone here would have experience with this.




Can you clarify, do you mean storage?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

explod said:


> Can you clarify, do you mean storage?




The storage is unimportant; whether I buy (physical) gold to take home, or store it in some sort of a depository, the question is, are one's gold holdings on record anywhere.

My main interest is whether our government holds the capacity to confiscate all gold similarly to the US government during the great depression.


So in relation to the 5k limit, does that mean that you can go around various dealers buying lots of 5k gold, without having to give any ID? Can you enact multiple transactions of under 5k in value with the same dealer to circumvent this as well?


----------



## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> The 1980 event was Paul Volcker (Fed) ramping up interest rates to 20% to arrest inflation. When one says 'Gold is correlated to inflation', one does not necessarily mean correlation with no relative time shift. Gold front-runs inflationary signals. Wiemar german investors would not have simply watched their government monetize their debts, and _waited_ until inflation took hold - they buy real assets immediately.
> Some monetary base vs gold price charts might be interesting.




Correlated with a time shift? ... That means what? Nothing really, our system always has inflation!!!! If you choose to get real about what triggers gold bull markets just look at real interest rates for the gold correlation and forget about inflation. We had a twenty year gold bear market *WITH* inflation from Volkers high to the gold low. Inflation has NOTHING directly to do with golds value and gold will not enter a bull market until the safe opportunuty to gain a return on capital in other assets turns negative in real terms (return less inflation). An economy can live with inflation without triggering a gold bull market so long as it is otherwise healthy and offering real returns. Excessive inflation will eventual send returns negative and trigger inflation defensive plays then eventually a gold bull market BUT the link is not direct hence there is no useful correlation between gold and inflation with no static "time shift" difference between the two events. Real returns are the key to timing these events, best represented by real interest rates if you are looking for a correlation.

To be a little more succinct to understand when gold bulls come about we are looking for the point at which inflation damages the economy to the point it is contracting in real terms. 

This is a little like looking for the point one becomes dangerously drunk... it all depends on how much alcohol is consumed over what period of time. Although the link undeniably exists there are so many variables that determining the point at which  dangerous is reached is not possible unless you are measuring blood alcohol content. Real rates gives you that reading and gives you the correlation to gold, talking inflation in general will just confuse you because it is a constantly present variable in our current system.


----------



## Mr Z

Starcraftmazter said:


> So in relation to the 5k limit, does that mean that you can go around various dealers buying lots of 5k gold, without having to give any ID? Can you enact multiple transactions of under 5k in value with the same dealer to circumvent this as well?




Yes... or a couple can buy 10K... which is why I think I remember that number, it is always me and the misses


----------



## Mr Z

Starcraftmazter said:


> The storage is unimportant...




If you think about it storage requires identification and records are kept so the purchase is not anonymous. Once you have handed over that info it is mute point as to whether it is reported because the info is available should the authorities require it.  

The thing with physical gold is they are looking for large transfers of wealth that MAY be payments for nefarious activity. You'd have to match some sort of pattern to trigger a response from the government, in fact the rule is likely to be more directed at discouraging that avenue of potential payment than actually getting Joe Blow gold buyers name. Then how hard is a fake ID to get? As normal it only really succeeds in keeping honest people honest! Capital gains and all that... but then how do they know you sold it?


----------



## Ageo

Starcraftmazter said:


> So in relation to the 5k limit, does that mean that you can go around various dealers buying lots of 5k gold, without having to give any ID? Can you enact multiple transactions of under 5k in value with the same dealer to circumvent this as well?





Yes thats what many people do to avoid the 5k rule (if paying cash) but if its a bank transfer or credit card from a business then there is no need for them to report it.


----------



## explod

There is a thread called "Buying Gold" which may be more usefull to some, many questions have been answered there and more on topic than here.


----------



## tothemax6

Starcraftmazter said:


> My main interest is whether our government holds the capacity to confiscate all gold similarly to the US government during the great depression.



It is a government, so yes. I would argue that even Gillard isn't as much of a national saboteur/thug as FDR, but its always possible. However, even if the gov nationalized everyone's gold, A - its easy to hide gold, B - if they were actually breaking into homes to find gold, the gold would be the least of your worries, C - foreign currency coins which happen to be made of gold are normally exempt (such as Krugerrands in the case of the depression).


----------



## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> The direct correlation between me wanting to eat food and me eating food is poor. If you shift the chart of me 'wanting food' forward about 20minutes, the correlation is good.




You simply cannot add a fixed time shift and find any correlation between the gold price and inflation it is not that simple.... there is no correlation, time shift or other in that sense. It is entirely to do with the ability to earn a safe return over and above inflation. Which, when you think about it is entirely logical... if there is no threat and safe returns can be had why on earth would you own gold? This is why for MOST of the time real estate is a better inflation hedge than gold, it is a real asset that in the wider time frame moves inline with inflation + you can leverage it cheaply. Gold gets legs when things like RE stop working... case in point the USA.



tothemax6 said:


> Regarding real rates, one must also consider that the inflation rate is a function of the interest rate.




The real rate is basically the nominal rate with the inflation rate backed out of it, it is not a function of the inflation rate it is the current rate stripped of inflation distortion.


----------



## Mr Z

As for the Australian government confiscating gold, the law already exists to allow for this and all that is required is the governments will to exercise it. Silver is another story but in Australia you can be asked to hand in your gold... to my knowledge it has never been done but???!


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Mr Z said:


> As for the Australian government confiscating gold, the law already exists to allow for this and all that is required is the governments will to exercise it. Silver is another story but in Australia you can be asked to hand in your gold... to my knowledge it has never been done but???!




Seriously? Do you know which Act it is in or when it was enacted or any other info? This is somewhat worrisome 

I guess I will be buying in 5k lots from various dealers in cash. Then the question is, how the hell do you secure gold against theft, and of course you can not insure it because then it will be on record (not to mention costing it's weight in gold to do so .


Thanks to everyone for the responses, and I will find that thread on buying gold.


----------



## Mr Z

Starcraftmazter said:


> Seriously? Do you know which Act it is in or when it was enacted or any other info? This is somewhat worrisome




I first learned of it from Bron Suchecki of the Perth Mint. It is Part IV of the Banking Act 1959.

You can read about it on his blog.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

Re confiscation, the Govt can't actually do it as it stands now, they have to have the dormant Part 4 of the Banking Act reactivated, but that probably won't take long to do.

On the ID issue, note that only cash purchases above $10,000 or suspicous transactions (which would include obvious multiple sub $5000 purchases and other avoidances) are reported.

Yes dealers record and file ID for transactions over $5000, but there is no reporting. They don't keep those records forever, usually after 7 years businesses can destroy records.

So if a future Govt wanted to track down gold owners they could go to bullion dealers and ask for records. If those are kept in paper files then it will be impractical but I suppose most would have electronic name and address details.

Personally, I'd be more worried about crooks breaking into a dealers shop not for their gold, but to hack their computer records of who they sold to. 

Note also if you purchase under $5000 but paid with bank transfer or cheque then the Govt can access that information via the banking system, so for total privacy you need purchases under $5000 in cash. Buying small amounts more frequently is probably not a bad idea anyway, as it is a form of dollar cost averaging.


----------



## Ageo

Bron Suchecki said:


> Re confiscation, the Govt can't actually do it as it stands now, they have to have the dormant Part 4 of the Banking Act reactivated, but that probably won't take long to do.
> 
> On the ID issue, note that only cash purchases above $10,000 or suspicous transactions (which would include obvious multiple sub $5000 purchases and other avoidances) are reported.
> 
> Yes dealers record and file ID for transactions over $5000, but there is no reporting. They don't keep those records forever, usually after 7 years businesses can destroy records.
> 
> So if a future Govt wanted to track down gold owners they could go to bullion dealers and ask for records. If those are kept in paper files then it will be impractical but I suppose most would have electronic name and address details.
> 
> Personally, I'd be more worried about crooks breaking into a dealers shop not for their gold, but to hack their computer records of who they sold to.
> 
> Note also if you purchase under $5000 but paid with bank transfer or cheque then the Govt can access that information via the banking system, so for total privacy you need purchases under $5000 in cash. Buying small amounts more frequently is probably not a bad idea anyway, as it is a form of dollar cost averaging.





Bron in the not too distant future any cash transaction on bullion will fall under cash reporting requirements.... Its only a matter of time before they kill the industry and hopefully by then the average citizen wakes up and over throws all these stupid departments which are nothing but money grabbers and intel gatherers.


----------



## sinner

I am personally not worried about confiscation of personal gold. What gold anyway, I sold mine to pay off large losses gambling on red at the casino.

I think before too long, "western governments will encourage people to hold physical gold...citizens will be asked to use gold as savings...for holding (the currency as a store of value) will be frowned upon" (sic)(ANOTHER - http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another4.html)

See

"China urges its citizens to purchase gold and silver" - http://digitaljournal.com/article/279166

It's my understanding you can buy gold (not silver) bullion in the UK tax exempt, and in Europe I hear you can buy gold bullion at the spot rate by simply walking into almost any bank.


----------



## Mr Z

*It has been funny...*

...watching Forbes swing from a fairly anti gold stance in the early 2000's to running more and more gold supportive articles. Not that I am one that believes we should return to gold as currency BUT just the fact that sound money principles are being discussed in the press is very encouraging.

Will Western Civilization Rediscover The Moral Foundations Of Sound Money?

The people are starting to look for an alternate money!

Battered by Economic Crisis, Greeks Turn to Barter Networks


----------



## Mr Z

*Of course...*

... the Greek government will have to clamp down on it at some point because it could threaten tax revenue.... not that the Greeks tend to pay taxes anyway


----------



## DB008

*Re: Of course...*



Mr Z said:


> ... the Greek government will have to clamp down on it at some point because it could threaten tax revenue.... not that the Greeks tend to pay taxes anyway




My Z,
There was very interesting story on Greece this week (I think it was on the 7:30 report). 
My mum laughed and said l should marry a Greek girl. Get up at Midday, drink latte's and read the newspapers all day....


----------



## Mr Z

LOL...

You don't marry a Greek girl you marry a Greek family. Choose wisely


----------



## Mr Z

*Are we all ready?*

For some gold edufamcation?

*Gold Bull Seasonals 6 - Adam Hamilton *

The happy time of year is near!


----------



## explod

And to follow on from you there Z, good old Turd sums it up well too.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/turd-ferguson-inexorable-march-higher-precious-metals


----------



## Starcraftmazter

I thought up of another question.

When the gold standard was dropped and all the central banks sold mass quantities of gold....who bought it all


----------



## explod

Starcraftmazter said:


> I thought up of another question.
> 
> When the gold standard was dropped and all the central banks sold mass quantities of gold....who bought it all




Mostly smart private individuals but the banks are now buying it back.

Sometimes we can lose sight of the bigger picture when getting bogged down in day to day discussions.  This morning an email from Jim Sinclair hit my inbox which has me thinking of my long term reasons for holding silver, but the story applies equally to gold.

I am not one for the God stuff myself but the facts behind the story are sound in my view.

The ratio of the gold rise in the 1970's is something I mentioned on this thread some years ago now and it is referred to here too.   Gold at that time went from $35 an ounce to its top of $800 which was about 25 to 1.   This gold bull run began at $260 which multiplied by 25 is $6,500.  There is a good case to say however that the conditions on money printing are very much out of control this time so who knows where the big top will be found.

A fairly long article but well worth the read and discussion in my view. 

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14...d-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/


----------



## DB008

if someone showed me this chart, l'd say it looks like a crash would be on the way....


----------



## Mr Z

Any chart showing exponential growth will look like that at any point. Gold looked like that years ago! In and of itself it means little other than the obvious fact that exponential growth can't go on forever... unless of course it is Oz resi property. The question is "Are we there yet?", I say no... you are free to say go!


----------



## disarray

DB008 said:


> if someone showed me this chart, l'd say it looks like a crash would be on the way....




would you now?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

disarray said:


> would you now?




The difference is, some exponential charts have well definied limits. For instance, Earth has a certain carrying capacity of the number of humans.

There is no such limit for gold, it is priced relative to fiat based on monetary expansion.


----------



## Wysiwyg

disarray said:


> would you now?



 Going long with a target of 14 billion people in 100 years. Trading the breakout.


----------



## sinner

DB008 said:


> if someone showed me this chart, l'd say it looks like a crash would be on the way....
> 
> 
> View attachment 45194




But that's just because you're looking at a linear chart 

Here's a log scale chart.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

$2000-$2200 AUD/oz in the near future?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/11/chart-of-the-day-gold-at-2000-aud-oz/


----------



## Edwood

Starcraftmazter said:


> $2000-$2200 AUD/oz in the near future?
> http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/11/chart-of-the-day-gold-at-2000-aud-oz/




christmas is coming after all, isn't that normally a bullish time for gold?


----------



## tech/a

Well 
In my view Gold is about to correct.
If I was to trade it it would be short


----------



## RandR

tech/a said:


> Well
> In my view Gold is about to correct.
> If I was to trade it it would be short




Interesting, if gold does correct surely it would be coinciding/precursing a deflationary environment through the EU. Rather then the hyper inflationary environment so many long gold are betting on.


----------



## explod

tech/a said:


> Well
> In my view Gold is about to correct.
> If I was to trade it it would be short




Interesting in depth analysis there tech;  and a brave call too.

To me gold is still within the uptrend channell by a safe margin.  The HUI indicated a reverse candle yesterday which was confirmed on the rise today.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$HUI,uu%5bw,a%5ddaclyyay%5bpb50!b200%5d%5bvc60%5d%5biUb14!La12,26,9%5d&pref=G

I would not be going short.


----------



## noirua

I hold the view that gold will rise in Aussies but fall in Greenback terms. The USD upswing looks quite determined as AU$1.20 could be reached by next April -- so gold US$1,500 and AU$1,800.


----------



## sinner

noirua said:


> I hold the view that gold will rise in Aussies but fall in Greenback terms.




Action in the spot XAUAUD market, 1700 held up very nicely the last two days, with 1570 still as medium term support. Strong resistance band at 1765-1770, break above to see fresh gains required.


----------



## hedgetrader

DB008 said:


> if someone showed me this chart, l'd say it looks like a crash would be on the way....




If you looked at the value of a $50 note would you say it due for a reversal?

The price of Gold gives you an idea of the value of our plastic money.


----------



## Mr Z

tech/a said:


> Well
> In my view Gold is about to correct.
> If I was to trade it it would be short




It would be an "odds against" call for December.


----------



## sinner

A nice low risk technical entry available today for XAUAUD bulls, as today has broken the high of yesterdays "narrow range 4 inside bar" setup.


----------



## DB008

Trader on Bloomberg speculating on Gold. $2000 in the very near future.



> Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Ned Naylor-Leyland, investment director at Cheviot Asset Management, talks about the outlook for gold prices. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)



http://www.bloomberg.com/video/81690186/


----------



## mr. jeff

Is anyone watching gold to break this triangle at 1750 for a strong move and if so which way out of interest ?


----------



## Mr Z

Hmmmmm let me see, the CB's of the world united and yelled "MO MONEY!" so errrr um I guess DOWN!!!! 

  :






NOT!


----------



## explod

The gold weekly since 2009, 

A nice steady uptrend that could be due for a breakout to the upside soon.


----------



## Mr Z

*Even backing up a little more...*

The trend is solid.


----------



## financialdonk

Gold fast approaching a critical point.

Firstly, notice the 144MA respect dating back since January of 2009.
	

		
			
		

		
	




Secondly, a symmetrical triangle has been forming for some time and a breakout is near.


Breakout to the upside will see a retest of 1800 and to the downside first real support level is 1610-1600.

However, given the long build up of the triangle I believe the breakout will test either 1900 or 1480. Both are stronger support and resistance levels in the last 9 months (Highs and Lows) and form the basis for the symmetrical triangle.

The strength of the uptrend and the extremely supportive 144MA have me favoring a move to the upside. 

Disclaimer: Only my opinion DYOR etc


----------



## Edwood

financialdonk said:


> Gold fast approaching a critical point.
> given the long build up of the triangle I believe the breakout will test either 1900 or 1480.




2300 will be doable if it goes


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It's getting closer, capitalistic comrades........

Rumours, or perhaps even fact, that the Anglo-American CB's are active sellers (the cappers are back)....... thank you FED and BOE..........for a lower entry price.

Interesting that the wedges are timed to co-incide with the Euro make-or-break 'final' meeting of the minds which will ultimatly fail to save the Euro - debt swamped.....

Timing will be critical for the ultimate trade - 



Euro zone is in recession, attempts to save have failed.
Flight to $USD's
Buy gold (transfer cash in bank to physical gold holdings)
China has a hard landing afterall
$AU tanks
AU gold price doubles
Global recession
$USD's tank
US price of gold explodes
AU gold price doubles, again, & again????
2012 will be a turning point for humanity.

PS Have a happy Christmas


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Uncle Festivus said:


> Euro zone is in recession, attempts to save have failed.
> Flight to $USD's
> Buy gold (transfer cash in bank to physical gold holdings)
> China has a hard landing afterall
> $AU tanks
> AU gold price doubles
> Global recession
> $USD's tank
> US price of gold explodes
> AU gold price doubles, again, & again????
> 2012 will be a turning point for humanity.




Sounds pretty much in line with my predictions - however I would have thought it would be better to buy USD before EUM collapses, and then switch to gold when USD hits some sort of a peak?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Starcraftmazter said:


> Sounds pretty much in line with my predictions - however I would have thought it would be better to buy USD before EUM collapses, and then switch to gold when USD hits some sort of a peak?




Yeh, sounds good, if you want to take some money off the table on the way...

Also, keep this link handy, and get a client code.....

http://www.abcbullion.com.au/index.php/default/product


----------



## iced earth

TA of Gold - 13 Dec 2011
============================
In Linear chart (weekly): we see that Gold has a strong support line (Red) near $1600.00 

next valid support line is the green one which is the main upward trend line for gold



Gold around $1600.00 where has the red support line is also around important 38.2% Fibo




In logarithmic  chart (daily) : the importance of $1600.00 is more clear. Gold at around $1600.00 would touch lower line of the upward channel as very valid support line. If this support line can't hold Gold from falling, the target would be around $1300.00 which has important Fibo 50% as well.


----------



## drillinto

The price of gold has been breaking down

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkb...-to-end-longest-streak-above-200-dmaever.html

:::


----------



## joea

drillinto said:


> The price of gold has been breaking down
> 
> http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkb...-to-end-longest-streak-above-200-dmaever.html
> 
> :::




Hi.
I digest the gold price in conjunction with the $US. The dollar is currently attempting to take out the high on the 4/10/2011. 
When that happens you may have some positive movement.
joea


----------



## drillinto

"S&P 500/Gold Correlation Spikes" 

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/12/14/sp-500gold-correlation-spikes.html

***


----------



## joea

drillinto said:


> "S&P 500/Gold Correlation Spikes"
> 
> http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/12/14/sp-500gold-correlation-spikes.html
> 
> ***




The chart show a linear regression line . (center line). The out side lines pick up the extremes. The current price is the "x" mark. (today). By Friday we will know if it bounces or keeps declining. It just dropped about $76. us.
joea


----------



## joea

drillinto said:


> The price of gold has been breaking down
> 
> http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkb...-to-end-longest-streak-above-200-dmaever.html
> 
> :::




If gold turns and moves up towards $us2000, a number of Australian miners will be good value. SLR and KGL are both moving down to complete wave 4 Elliott. So a wave 5 long on some of the gold miners may produce good results. I have not checked them all yet.

This is not buying advice, just an example of the wave formation ready to play out.
joea


----------



## alanjohnson

*Rising price of gold*

The price of gold is currently around $1700 an ounce and reports suggest that it will reach more than $2000 an ounce. My broker is suggesting a few gold stocks to me, is it better to go with a junior company in a great region such as VTM or go for a company that is already producing?


----------



## joea

*Re: Rising price of gold*



alanjohnson said:


> The price of gold is currently around $1700 an ounce and reports suggest that it will reach more than $2000 an ounce. My broker is suggesting a few gold stocks to me, is it better to go with a junior company in a great region such as VTM or go for a company that is already producing?




Well I just had a look at VTM, and personally I think your broker is pulling your leg.
VTM is a spec share. If my Elliott wave is correct, it may make a small move up, then continue its trend down to a new low. (not much data).
Here is one answer to your correction. You would have to be vary wary of your trading period with VTM. The only price sensitive doc. is "Exploration Commences at Dangue". The other flags are to do with option Issue.
joea


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I hear crickets.......

A few stunned mullets around today perhaps?



Euro zone is in recession, attempts to save have failed.
Flight to $USD's
I think we are well and truly at step 2 now?? Just have to see how long the sheeple realise step 1?



When to buy? My long term support levels @ $1200 & $1500, so see which holds, maybe an accelerated average down buy strategy down through the supports? If it does hit $1200 then I'm backing the truck up and hauling a billion of bullion .


----------



## Frank D

*GOLD Primary and Weekly cycles*

Same 'bubble' pattern as Silver, but delayed in the price action by
 about 3-months:- confirmed with the Weekly low breakout.

*Random support December lows...*

*But the critical level in the 2012 Yearly 50% level*, whilst below that 
there is a trend bias back towads the first Quarter level @ 1440...

and as low as the Yearly lows by the 3rd Quarter.


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: Rising price of gold*

Gold is under 1600 buddy and VTM looks like absolute crap


----------



## explod

Producers within aussie borders is my go when I am in.  OGC the exception (NZ producer).

As well I like NST and AYN who are all producers.

Now the action overnight has become typical.  

At the moment the woes of the Euro see the flight to the good ole US of a dollar.  This is the act of scared people cashing in and of course they recieve US dollars into thier accounts and the big guys trade into the stuff too.  After they stop blinking in a couple of days they wonder, "now where to put my dollars".  Time and time again we see gold and silver spike again from those decisions.  Silver I note appears to have already bounced back a half a dollar, gold may have found its old support round $1560 we will see.

So the key now is to see if the US$ runs out of steam here (as I suspect) and the metals hold this level (think they will, silver also on an old support here too)

Thursdays seem to be the favourite time in the week cycle for gold to rise (US time) and Fridays is cap off night.  If we do have further weakness overnight then look out below and look at Uncles levels in the post above. 

Having said all that it is a time to watch and see and really in the current financial state of play I would not have clue.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Explod.



> At the moment the woes of the Euro see the flight to the good ole US of a dollar.




I thought the basis of part of your pro gold arguement was that the flight would go to gold.



> This is the act of scared people cashing in and of course they recieve US dollars into thier accounts and the big guys trade into the stuff too.




Have you conducted an interview of all those selling, how could you possible know the reason for the selling.


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> A few stunned mullets around today perhaps?




The same stunned mullets as usual, those of us who have been keeping with the plan are no more stunned or mullety than normal.



> When to buy?




lol, you stopped? More for the rest of us who work hard and save in gold.

If you mean, "when to buy so I can sell for a short term profit", I would wait for consolidation to finish first.


----------



## sinner

Today I spotted this post from David Varadi (a very well respected quant) on the CSS Analytics blog.

It is from a little earlier in the year but I think it raises some interesting points, and fields the "Mr Z negative real interest rates" vs "Tysonboss my assets throw off a yield in whatever the currency du jour is" discussion in an interesting fashion.

http://cssanalytics.wordpress.com/2011/09/26/near-zero-interest-rates-and-diversification/
(a small snippet to whet your whistle)


> It is conventional wisdom that gold  should not have a risk premium, and historically this has been true though this is a separate debate. What is more important is that gold carries a negative correlation to other assets, and thus in a low or zero interest rate environment it does not need to have much of an expected return in order to improve portfolio risk-adjusted returns. Consider that holding standard deviation constant,  an asset with a -.5 correlation reduces portfolio risk by 50%. That means that gold returns can be up to 50% lower than all other asset returns and still improve the portfolio sharpe.  The same principle holds true for all assets that have low or negative correlations to equities


----------



## explod

> Tysonboss1
> 
> 
> I thought the basis of part of your pro gold arguement was that the flight would go to gold.




Always has in the past after a few days.



> Have you conducted an interview of all those selling, how could you possible know the reason for the selling




Dont' need to there has been sufficient anecdotal within the media in the last few days and over the years to have a good idea.

Anyhooow, just wait and see, nothing in concrete these days.

What is you taker on it all ?


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> It is not hard to work out as the price of gold has gone up an average of 30% per year since 2001.  And as the monetisation of debt looks to continue so will the price of gold go up on its current trend.
> 
> We have had a fair bit of it this year so I am calling US$2,200 2011
> 
> 2012 about $2,900
> 2013  "   "    3,900
> 
> roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.
> 
> And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.




It's nearly the end of 2011, are we still on track to hit $2,200. 

Oh well, better luck next year, maybe you'll be right and we will be hitting $2,900 some time soon. 

 Who knows where the market will send the price of gold shorterm, But my opinion is that it will be lower in 12 months.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Tysonboss1 said:


> Who knows where the market will send the price of gold shorterm, But my opinion is that it will be lower in 12 months.




What analysis do you base that on?


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> It's nearly the end of 2011, are we still on track to hit $2,200.
> 
> Oh well, better luck next year, maybe you'll be right and we will be hitting $2,900 some time soon.
> 
> Who knows where the market will send the price of gold shorterm, But my opinion is that it will be lower in 12 months.




I said roughly and the year is a long way from over just yet.

In 2002, 03, 04, 05, 07, 09 and 2010 we had strong upmoves in the gold price in late December.  Still up a good 15% for the year so far and I suppose you cannot expect 30%every year, the longer term average is what is going to count (as it has).  But still admit its not looking to hot for this year but time will tell.

And a quick rip around the commentators and you will find that it is virtually all paper trading on the London exchange and on the comex with little or no gold changing hands.  How much longer this false paper market can last will be interesting but when it comes undone ???

we will see.

Anyway good to see you are still awake there Tysonboss1 and doing a bit of searching I see too.  Would never bother to back track on someone myself but each to his own of course.

A merry Christmas to yourself and Family.


----------



## iced earth

TA of Gold - 16 Dec 2011
=======================
Gold has broken the 3 Years support line as lower line of the channel, the target of the breaking channel would be as low as around $1300.00

first important support level would be around $1450.00 (Fibo 38.2%)




Also from linear chart, Gold would touch the longterm support line around $1450.00


----------



## explod

iced earth said:


> TA of Gold - 16 Dec 2011
> =======================
> Gold has broken the 3 Years support line as lower line of the channel, the target of the breaking channel would be as low as around $1300.00
> 
> first important support level would be around $1450.00 (Fibo 38.2%)
> 
> View attachment 45550
> 
> 
> Also from linear chart, Gold would touch the longterm support line around $1450.00
> 
> View attachment 45551




Is measured on a weekly close basis for the long term trend and looks like it coud in fact be line ball.

We will know in the morning.


----------



## Monkeyzu

explod said:


> Anyway good to see you are still awake there Tysonboss1 and doing a bit of searching I see too.  Would never bother to back track on someone myself but each to his own of course.
> 
> A merry Christmas to yourself and Family.




Isn't that the point of making predictions?


----------



## Billyb

Gold will do whatever it wants to do just like every other market and the answer is to let it do whatever it wants to do and just follow the trend.

From a very short term technical point of view there has been some recent high volume wide spread bars and last night was a low spread bar with smaller volume, but all of this is much smaller than the volume we saw when the price crashed in late September. All of this is indicating likely absorption and probably support, because there doesn't appear to be a lot of selling to coincide with the huge price drops we're seeing. Basically the price and volume data is suggesting STRENGTH in the short term. We might see further tests but unless there is something drastic (like big news) it's more likely that we've reached some support here and the price is going to bounce a bit.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Gold will *not* do whatever, it is important to do extensive research and analyse the market to figure out exactly what is happening. How the hell else do you expect to make money? 


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/morga...art-recent-gold-sell-and-why-surge-can-resume

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.LIBGO3M:IND

The recent sell-off in gold was caused by bank funding stress. In particular European banks needed to get USD loans - but couldn't, that is until they put up their gold as collateral (anyone else still thinks gold is a useless shiny metal?). This put gold lease rates into deep negative (something which is not meant to happen) - putting selling pressure on gold.

This situation has began to be rectified recently by the central banks, providing the EZ banks with unlimited dollar liquidity.

Long story short, a rally in gold is coming soon.


----------



## explod

Agree Starcraftmazter.

Notice now since the cuffufle last week that the US$ has in fact tired and heading back down.

All very much in line with the way it and gold has behaved many times over during this bull run.

Also reports that Euro Countries may be forced to sell gold to ballance books.   These types of headlines have also marked the beginning of new upticks for gold over the last few years. 

If they cannot beat it technically they then resorts to news blurbs.

Cheers to gold bulls.


----------



## Whiskers

Gold has certainly out performed my original expectations from a year or two ago.

So, is the tide turning?

What EW counts look best?

What do other TA charts, P&F, IchiMoku etc,  indicate?

What do people thing about the likelyhood of gold around 1,200ish later in 2012/13?

A point to consider is the possibility or even probability of heavy gold selling to reduce soverign debt and or provide more stimulus.


----------



## aclassic

Whiskers said:


> Gold has certainly out performed my original expectations from a year or two ago.
> 
> So, is the tide turning?
> 
> What EW counts look best?
> 
> What do other TA charts, P&F, IchiMoku etc,  indicate?
> 
> What do people thing about the likelyhood of gold around 1,200ish later in 2012/13?
> 
> A point to consider is the possibility or even probability of heavy gold selling to reduce soverign debt and or provide more stimulus.




I'd say looking at your chart at the very worst 1950.

Heavy selling - heavier buying.


----------



## explod

The news that some countries will dump thier gold is just a lot of hot air to try and hold the paper market together.  As I iterated earlier in the day on this thread, its orchestration is usually followed by a huge spike up in the gold price.  Its worth following the links to see the full stories of the following:-



> What I thought was the most fascinating of Mark’s comments during the interview, was his observations of major gold buyers emerging from the Middle East & Asia. “People are coming directly to us,” for large gold purchases he said. “People who want tonnes of physical gold, people with serious financial muscle…because they’re finding it’s very difficult to secure the volume of gold they want…That’s something we’ve noticed over the last 18 months, and it’s been increasing in the last 6 months. I think people are finding its hard to get physical gold.”
> 
> Additionally, a major challenge facing the world going forward according to Mark, is that, “The world is short water, energy, & commodities…we’ve under-invested in our natural resources as a society…and as a consequence, we’ll see higher prices around the globe.”
> 
> http://bullmarketthinking.com/mark-...buyers-finding-its-hard-to-get-physical-gold/






> We’re struggling to get the physical out of these guys (producers) because they have so many people banging on their door, saying, ‘Sell it to us direct.’  What these buyers are doing is essentially taking gold out of the system, which means the bullion banks can’t leverage that gold anymore.
> 
> So this is a huge, dynamic shift that wasn’t there before.  Now we are working on one other thing.  We’re beginning to offer them forward contracts.  If you are a sovereign entity, what you are saying to these producers, especially on new projects, is, ‘Why don’t you sell the gold to me in 12 months?  Here’s the cash, just provide it to me 12 months from now.’
> These buyers are now cutting off future gold supply from the bullion banks...
> 
> “This is a huge, tectonic shift in price dynamics going forward because it is taking price discovery away from the bullion banks.  These large Chinese buyers and sovereign entities which are doing this are going to have a massive impact on the market.
> 
> Interestingly, so many people are bearish on gold right now and looking for a collapse in the price of gold.  They don’t understand what is happening in the physical market.  The bullish fundamentals I just described to you have enormous implications.
> 
> http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...are_Witnessing_a_Historic_Bottom_in_Gold.html


----------



## notting

Looking for some big shorts.  Already started a small one on NCM.
Gold’s bounce for today is simply Euro strength.  Has nothing to do with Gold.
Either risk comes off and people think Euro is OK for a while so Gold will continue to be weak.
Or Euro$ tumbles gold is weaker cause US$ is stronger.
That's me thinking at this moment!


----------



## explod

notting said:


> Looking for some big shorts.  Already started a small one on NCM.
> Gold’s bounce for today is simply Euro strength.  Has nothing to do with Gold.
> Either risk comes off and people think Euro is OK for a while so Gold will continue to be weak.
> Or Euro$ tumbles gold is weaker cause US$ is stronger.
> That's me thinking at this moment!




NCM, interesting punt, has not really been below $30 since 2009.  A lot of support at this level.

Will watch with interest.


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> And a quick rip around the commentators and you will find that it is virtually all paper trading on the London exchange and on the comex with little or no gold changing hands.  How much longer this false paper market can last will be interesting but when it comes undone ???
> 
> we will see.
> 
> Anyway good to see you are still awake there Tysonboss1 and doing a bit of searching I see too.  Would never bother to back track on someone myself but each to his own of course.
> 
> A merry Christmas to yourself and Family.




bullion all the way! the only true way to ensure your hard earned cash is completely removed from this crazy financial system we are running. i wonder if there is even any gold backing these paper transactions these days

explod, if economies deflate would you still be bullish? this uncertainty is all that prevents me from buying in. after all gold has most definitely inflated along with the credit boom, and could very well prove to be just as big a bubble as any.

where would it get its legs from to be the only thing in the world increasing in value during a deflationary period? although it may not fall quite as hard as everything else given its 'safe haven' reputation. is picking investments that crash the least what the world could come to?

would gold not be one of a few assets that would be sold by investors desperately trying to meet margin calls in a crash?

of course if we were able to eventually return to sound money gold would indeed...well be worth its weight in gold

ps i cant remember who posted it, but europes gold reserves dont even begin chip away at the surface of their debt, italy for example carrying just 6.7% of gdp in gold.


----------



## explod

> =young-gun;677238]explod, if economies deflate would you still be bullish? this uncertainty is all that prevents me from buying in. after all gold has most definitely inflated along with the credit boom, and could very well prove to be just as big a bubble as any.




I remain bullish to the extent that it preserves equity value.  I have quoted Prector and his book masny times on this thread, although dated 2002 from memory, is well worth reading on this aspect.  However the deflation we experienced in 2008 was not across the board.  Many statistical figures are distorted for appearances, example; US unemployment at around 8% only includes those looking for work over the last 12 months, after that they are dropped off the total.  Recently it was noted that the US were refiguring the way they put property figures together then sure enough in the last couple of days they say building approvals are up by 8% and yee haar takes the Dow up 300 points.

We know that food rises are not reflected in our Aussy inflation rate of a few percentage points.   So intoto the debate is subjective.




> where would it get its legs from to be the only thing in the world increasing in value during a deflationary period? although it may not fall quite as hard as everything else given its 'safe haven' reputation. is picking investments that crash the least what the world could come to?




There are still going to be needs in huge demand, food and energy for starters but the problem to ponder is what will happen to the paper value of money.   It is accepted that gold will not make you money in effect but will preserve your capital as it has done in spite of deflation or inflation since records of this effect were kept from 1792.



> would gold not be one of a few assets that would be sold by investors desperately trying to meet margin calls in a crash?




Commentator opinion seems to indicate that those buying gold are wary of the markets and in the main gold hoarders.   Certainly there are sell offs when the market is spooked but remember the majority of this is within the paper gold market with little physical actually being exchanged to satisfy this issue.



> of course if we were able to eventually return to sound money gold would indeed...well be worth its weight in gold
> 
> ps i cant remember who posted it, but europes gold reserves dont even begin chip away at the surface of their debt, italy for example carrying just 6.7% of gdp in gold




The day of gold backed money would appear to be a long way off as I see it and there are no clear opinions on this issue.  If you are not familiar with Austrian Economics it is well worth reading up on to form your own views on this subject.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Whiskers said:


> A point to consider is the possibility or even probability of heavy gold selling to reduce soverign debt and or provide more stimulus.




That will never happen in a million years. They will let people starve on the streets before they sell physical gold. Every single country knows, and in the end, if anything should happen to the world financial system - the only thing which gives them power to issue and control currency are their gold reserves.


----------



## Smurf1976

Starcraftmazter said:


> That will never happen in a million years. They will let people starve on the streets before they sell physical gold. Every single country knows, and in the end, if anything should happen to the world financial system - the only thing which gives them power to issue and control currency are their gold reserves.



Which explains why many countries have already sold off much of their gold in recent years?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Smurf1976 said:


> Which explains why many countries have already sold off much of their gold in recent years?




If by recent years you mean decades ago, and by countries you mean privately ran central banks,  then no - no it doesn't.


----------



## Smurf1976

It was only a few years ago that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England and others were selling plenty of gold at bargain basement prices.


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> I remain bullish to the extent that it preserves equity value.  I have quoted Prector and his book masny times on this thread, although dated 2002 from memory, is well worth reading on this aspect.  However the deflation we experienced in 2008 was not across the board.  Many statistical figures are distorted for appearances, example; US unemployment at around 8% only includes those looking for work over the last 12 months, after that they are dropped off the total.  Recently it was noted that the US were refiguring the way they put property figures together then sure enough in the last couple of days they say building approvals are up by 8% and yee haar takes the Dow up 300 points.
> 
> We know that food rises are not reflected in our Aussy inflation rate of a few percentage points.   So intoto the debate is subjective.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are still going to be needs in huge demand, food and energy for starters but the problem to ponder is what will happen to the paper value of money.   It is accepted that gold will not make you money in effect but will preserve your capital as it has done in spite of deflation or inflation since records of this effect were kept from 1792.
> 
> 
> 
> Commentator opinion seems to indicate that those buying gold are wary of the markets and in the main gold hoarders.   Certainly there are sell offs when the market is spooked but remember the majority of this is within the paper gold market with little physical actually being exchanged to satisfy this issue.
> 
> 
> 
> The day of gold backed money would appear to be a long way off as I see it and there are no clear opinions on this issue.  If you are not familiar with Austrian Economics it is well worth reading up on to form your own views on this subject.




indeed my knowledge of gold and its history is limited, can you point me in the direction of a few good books? i am becoming increasingly curious about gold, and honestly believe it will as you say be the one thing that may preserve your capital, or potentially, depending on the circumstances, go up substantially in the near future.

if economies deflate it will simply make a countries dollar worth more will it not? just as hyper-inflation renders them worthless, deflation strengthens? this is bad news for the aussie dollar, as our crash seems to be lagging that of others. deflation would see the greenback become very valuable, as they write down their debt and destroy who knows how many $$$'s.


----------



## Wysiwyg

young-gun said:


> honestly believe it will as you say be the one thing that may preserve your capital



That depends on what price you bought the ounces for and how long you want to wait or have left to live. Bought 1980 to 1981 you would have waited 25 years to get back to break even.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> Bought 1980 to 1981 you would have waited 25 years to get back to break even.



And then the purchasing power of the underlying dollar would be substantially reduced. The catch is paying for the stuff in dollars and then what purchasing power those dollars have in the future when changing it back.


----------



## explod

young-gun said:


> indeed my knowledge of gold and its history is limited, can you point me in the direction of a few good books? i am becoming increasingly curious about gold, and honestly believe it will as you say be the one thing that may preserve your capital, or potentially, depending on the circumstances, go up substantially in the near future.
> 
> if economies deflate it will simply make a countries dollar worth more will it not? just as hyper-inflation renders them worthless, deflation strengthens? this is bad news for the aussie dollar, as our crash seems to be lagging that of others. deflation would see the greenback become very valuable, as they write down their debt and destroy who knows how many $$$'s.




I know these young-gun

The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It: Make a Fortune by Investing in Gold and Other Hard Assets by James Turk

Gold: The Once and Future Money (Agora Series) by Nathan K. Lewis

Conquer the crash: you can survive and prosper in a deflationary depression
Robert Rougelot Prechter

Check these web sites:

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold.html

http://mises.org/


----------



## drillinto

Gold Future: Last Six Months

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/12/21/gold-strike-two.html
***


----------



## Uncle Festivus

young-gun said:


> bullion all the way! the only true way to ensure your hard earned cash is completely removed from this crazy financial system we are running. i wonder if there is even any gold backing these paper transactions these days
> 
> explod, if economies deflate would you still be bullish? this uncertainty is all that prevents me from buying in. after all gold has most definitely inflated along with the credit boom, and could very well prove to be just as big a bubble as any.
> 
> where would it get its legs from to be the only thing in the world increasing in value during a deflationary period? although it may not fall quite as hard as everything else given its 'safe haven' reputation. is picking investments that crash the least what the world could come to?
> 
> would gold not be one of a few assets that would be sold by investors desperately trying to meet margin calls in a crash?
> 
> of course if we were able to eventually return to sound money gold would indeed...well be worth its weight in gold
> 
> ps i cant remember who posted it, but europes gold reserves dont even begin chip away at the surface of their debt, italy for example carrying just 6.7% of gdp in gold.




Gold has 2 hats - commodity & currency. When it's a commodity it's influences are inflation/deflation, geopolitical risk & natural risks. When it's a currency it's the final alternative to all other currencies. Right now the transition from one to the other is progressing gradually ie eventually it will act according to 'final currency' status alone. For example, if you were a Greek, how would you like to be paid - in Euro's, Drachma's, USD's or gold?? And then there were 2?

So right now we have the highly inflationary tactics of the CB's with QE & other elaborately named 'save the system' schemes balanced with the deflationary bust that has been going on for the last 5 years or so (the so called 'recovery' is merely the dimming glow of previous QE's - unless they keep doing that ad infinitum then there is no intrinsic 'recovery').

There will/should be one final leg down for gold as the Fed will attempt to finally discredit gold as an alternative currency to $USD's. Unless of course there is a game changing event (black swan) that means we go straight to currency collapse, then all bets are on gold........

Forgive my crude TA analysis, but a cursory glance at the following chart looks like a descending triangle in a downtrend forming, which is (short term?) bearish???


----------



## explod

Well gold is only up 16% US for this year and in Aussie up 20%.  Overall not too bad but a bit down on previous years.

I tend to be a bit bullish at times myself so it is good to have a look around to get the feet on the ground as we come to the end of a year.

Just read an interview of Peter Grandich which does just that and recommend it to all interested in the gold sector and he has some interesting insights on gold stocks too.

http://resourceclips.com/2011/12/21/grandich-on-2011/

Compliments of the season to everyone.


----------



## notting

I find that the best way to be in tune with something on the markets is when you have almost no interest in it but are reminded regularly of where it is at.

If *gold is no longer the safe haven* and the *US dollar is* then both those things spell lower gold prices if the environment is going to remain tumultuous. Even the Chinese are turning again to the US dollar for a safe haven, they have been strong on gold up till now.

I reckon gold will find 1350 and rotate between that and 1600 for a while.

If the Fed looks like printing again then I would change my opinion.  I have not thought the Fed was going for QE3 ever. 
If that changed then it would be at least 1 year away which give plenty of time for gold to deflate!  I guess that's a medium term view.
Longer term some much smarter people than me expect it to be higher.


----------



## explod

> notting
> 
> If *gold is no longer the safe haven* and the *US dollar is* then both those things spell lower gold prices if the environment is going to remain tumultuous. Even the Chinese are turning again to the US dollar for a safe haven, they have been strong on gold up till now.




Who is telling you the US$ is a safe haven?

Short term yes, but their debt is worse than the Euro zone, and China through the back door is buying every ounce of gold they can get thier hands on.  As producers of gold they used to be an exporter but now keep all of their own and buy every other available ounce.

They are desperately trying to get out of their US dollars and gold is one of the vehicles.
As with Gloucester Coal in the last few days, they want tangilbe assets as paper money is becoming trash.


----------



## notting

You need to turn the page its not yesterday any more.


----------



## explod

notting said:


> You need to turn the page its not yesterday any more.




Convince me


----------



## prawn_86

explod said:


> but their debt is worse than the Euro zone,




Nope. The Greeks, Irish etc had worse debt situation than the USA. But if you are talking about Europe as a whole bloc then you are correct


----------



## explod

prawn_86 said:


> Nope. The Greeks, Irish etc had worse debt situation than the USA. But if you are talking about Europe as a whole bloc then you are correct




The US unfunded liabilites are $114.500,000,000,000 (yes trillions) and dwarfs anything ever before in financial history.

usdebt.kleptocracy.us/Cached


----------



## explod

Sorry, the above link does not work and just about blows my computer when I open it,

which one wonders about.  I'll try for another

try this one

http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/07/from-100-to-114-trillion-us-dollars-of.html


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> The US unfunded liabilites are $114.500,000,000,000 (yes trillions) and dwarfs anything ever before in financial history.
> 
> usdebt.kleptocracy.us/Cached




alot of people either forget, or arent aware as to just how much debt the states are in. it is probably well above the number explod quoted, once you take into account private sector financial sector government and as plod noted unfunded liabilites(they can kiss any form of pension goodbye). the US forecasts for tax revenue are overly ambitious to say the least. they are in HUGE trouble, QE has played its part, but will only carry them so much further.

however i do agree with notting, i believe gold has the potential to deflate if the US starts writing down debt and destroying dollars, as opposed to QE. in which case the US dollar will become a safe haven as its worth will sky rocket. harry dent runs over this in his most recent book. only problem is his forecasts are based on believing the fed will actually let them deflate,he doesnt allow for qe3, in fact he didnt think they would have gone as far as they have.(yeah i know he can be a bit of a tool, but hes a smart guy and there is definitely alot to be said for some of his research)

anyway, time to travel around the country side to see friends n fam...merry christmas all!


----------



## adamim1

notting said:


> I find that the best way to be in tune with something on the markets is when you have almost no interest in it but are reminded regularly of where it is at.
> 
> If *gold is no longer the safe haven* and the *US dollar is* then both those things spell lower gold prices if the environment is going to remain tumultuous. Even the Chinese are turning again to the US dollar for a safe haven, they have been strong on gold up till now.
> 
> I reckon gold will find 1350 and rotate between that and 1600 for a while.
> 
> If the Fed looks like printing again then I would change my opinion.  I have not thought the Fed was going for QE3 ever.
> If that changed then it would be at least 1 year away which give plenty of time for gold to deflate!  I guess that's a medium term view.
> Longer term some much smarter people than me expect it to be higher.




If the ECB starts printing then we will see gold go much higher and we will see the dollar then drop as money flows out of the 'safe haven' and back into the other sectors.

Its like a sinking ship, you can change decks all you want, but your still on a sinking ship. The real life boat here should be gold. Once all the focus (if it ever does) changes from Europe back to the US, then we probably won't see the US dollar as a safe haven.. especially if the fed starts printing.


----------



## notting

*The point is medium term!*
These debts have been carried for a long time will wiill continue to be.
Europ has been the flash point for the last year and the ECB lending has eased that now.
There is  alot of debt to be refinanced in Euroland this year which should keep a lid on the Euro.
It gives strength to the US$ and weekness to Gold for the medium term.


----------



## DB008

Gold at $20,000 an ounce.....well, some people seem to think so.

Here is a video from Mike Maloney. 
He helped with input to one of Robert Kiyosaki's books.


----------



## Whiskers

DB008 said:


> Gold at $20,000 an ounce.....well, some people seem to think so.
> 
> Here is a video from Mike Maloney.
> He helped with input to one of Robert Kiyosaki's books.




On the one hand he's pointing out how the money backing system has changed over time  away from gold and concedes that any new system won't necessarily be backed by gold... and then at the end seems to be arguing that gold has to rise to these extraordinary levels to equate dollar value to about 100 years ago. 

Another error in his reasoning is comparing the increased value of physical gold against the Dow over the last 100 yrs. I didn't see and allowance for dividends and bonus share issues etc for Dow stocks. That would paint quite a different picture. 

At the end of the day, why does currency have to be backed by gold!

The current system would have worked, um blew-up less spectacularly if credit rules had been better handled.

It will no doubt get to $20,000 one day, but I still think it's going back closer to 1,200 before it goes higher.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Whiskers said:


> At the end of the day, why does currency have to be backed by gold!




As opposed to what?



Whiskers said:


> The current system would have worked, um blew-up less spectacularly if credit rules had been better handled.




No point playing what-ifs stating scenarios which will never happen. Fiat currency is designed with one purpose in mind - to be manipulated to breaking point by the elites.


----------



## aclassic

I was wondering re your earlier words Starcraftmazter;
_"Long story short, a rally in gold is coming soon." _
if you could define "soon" and would you hazard a guess as to how low it is is likely to go before that rally.
cheers.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

I would guess "somewhere in the range of 1500-1600", but it's not really supported by much other than technical support levels.


----------



## aclassic

Thanks, and how about that definition of "soon" he he?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

aclassic said:


> Thanks, and how about that definition of "soon" he he?




Sorry buddy, that would be pure speculation. Soon is simply based upon the fact that all reasons for gold to rise to $1900 are still here now, and the reason why it dropped to current lows is going away.

It will happen next year, there is no doubt.


----------



## aclassic

Starcraftmazter said:


> Sorry buddy, that would be pure speculation. Soon is simply based upon the fact that all reasons for gold to rise to $1900 are still here now, and the reason why it dropped to current lows is going away.
> 
> It will happen next year, there is no doubt.




That's rough enough for me, and thank-you for explanatory note Starcraftmazter.
cheers


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;654513 25th-August-2011 09:21 PM  said:
			
		

> Bearish Head & Shoulders Reversal forming?
> Target = $1530 approx.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 44212





			
				Chalea;661116 28th-September-2011 05:48 PM  said:
			
		

> $1532.45 is close enough...will retest it soon!




Two patterns recently broke out to the downside. Expect both targets to be hit.

1)Weekly bearish flag broken.

*Measured target = $1380.03*

2)Weekly bearish head and shoulders broken.

*Measured target = $1256.16*

Click chart


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> 1)Weekly bearish flag broken.
> *Measured target = $1380.03*
> 2)Weekly bearish head and shoulders broken.
> *Measured target = $1256.16*
> View attachment 45673




May be more accurate if the chart's scale was right...

Flag target = $1330

Head and shoulders target = $1185

Click chart


----------



## joea

Hi.
Gold direction by Elliott Wave below

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=434_2012-the-year-of-the-mighty-us-dollar-2011-12

joea


----------



## Edwood

some interesting general facts re gold

http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/


----------



## Tint

*Gold Analysis*

Spot gold prices rallied again on Thursday hitting fresh 4 week highs of $1662.15 in the NY session, as the EUR/USD picked up following an overdue relief rally on the back of some well received Spanish and Italian auctions in the European session. The move was assisted by the pick up in the morning of crude oil prices amid continued M/E tensions and threats of a strike by Nigerian oil unions. The metal however lost it's shine in the afternoon slipping back to $1644 as crude prices plummeted on news that the EU embargo on Iran's oil would be delayed for up to 6 months, prompting sharp sell-offs in Nymex and Brent crude of about $4. The metal staged a small recovery into the close at $1650 but came under renewed pressure in Asia this morning to $1635.15 before picking up again to $1647.70. Today's support is seen at $1630.30 and $1608.70 with resistance up at $1662.15 and $1678.25.


----------



## Logique

Vexing, the 2011 under-performance of gold stocks vs the price of gold. But these authors are confident this will eventually unwind. Bring it on.



> Oversold Gold Stocks Offer Plenty Of Scope For Gains
> By Adam Hamilton & Scott Wright | 09.01.2012
> http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/25316-oversold-gold-stocks-offer-plenty-of-scope-for-gains.html
> 
> "But so long as gold’s bull remains intact and its fundamentals compelling, this gold stock fear will prove totally unjustified.."


----------



## rybka

If money is effectively just being printed "QE"etc...etc... that realistically means that the value of gold, commodities and anything "TANGIBLE" will continue to rise. 

The worlds elite in my opinion stopped money being backed by gold....this way anything can be manipulated.

Point is gold will always end up going up, so if you invest and sit on it for a while you shouldn't loose "(or too much) "money as money always devalues in time (printing etc...(inflation) ), in short term if we read graphy it may fall (I hope it does), because 'during these uncertain times without delving into conspiracy theories...may be the only thing worth anything in future.... Unless of course a new "World"currency becomes the norm


----------



## zwiiyt

Gold will continue to rise in price. By the end of 2012, i won't be surprised if it's hit 2k. It's obvious that both Europe and America are too printing press happy.


----------



## DB008

Gold Bulls Expand as Paulson Says Buy




> Gold traders are getting more bullish after billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told investors it’s time to buy the metal as protection against inflation caused by government spending.
> 
> Twelve of 22 surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and five were neutral. Paulson & Co. is already the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange- traded product backed by bullion, with a stake valued at $2.9 billion, a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Feb. 14 showed. Investors have 2,389.7 metric tons in ETPs, within 0.2 percent of the record reached in December and more than all but four central banks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
> 
> Speculators in U.S. gold futures are now their most bullish since September after the Bank of England and Bank of Japan said they will buy more assets and the Federal Reserve said it was considering purchasing more bonds. Central banks are also expanding their bullion reserves, adding 439.7 tons last year, the most in almost five decades. They may buy a similar amount in 2012, the London-based World Gold Council said yesterday.
> 
> “The appalling state of fiscal finances of most industrial nations does lead to concerns about the possibility of inflation,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director of Dublin- based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. “Gold is a crucial diversification given the various risks out there.”




More on link above...


----------



## sinner

Quite a strong move in aussie gold overnight, as both gold priced in USD rose while the AUD fell against the same. I've got a 40 day high for this nice little breakout, with a few consolidation type supports between 1575-1585. 




In 2012, I am still a buyer of physical bullion.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Quite a strong move in aussie gold overnight, as both gold priced in USD rose while the AUD fell against the same.




Quite a bad night T/A wise for AUD.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Quite a bad night T/A wise for AUD.




Things just aren't looking good all round for the Aussie economy, I notice AUDLIBOR curve still funky since Jul 2011 and Aus gov bonds are inverted all the way to the 3Y. Something ugly coming down the pipe. Spread between 3M Gov/Corp credit indicates similar. 

Gold didn't make highs in USD or EUR last night, but it did in AUD, KRW, NZD and JPY...


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Things just aren't looking good all round for the Aussie economy, I notice AUDLIBOR curve still funky since Jul 2011 and Aus gov bonds are inverted all the way to the 3Y. Something ugly coming down the pipe. Spread between 3M Gov/Corp credit indicates similar.
> 
> Gold didn't make highs in USD or EUR last night, but it did in AUD, KRW, NZD and JPY...




Yeah funky signals everywhere. We are still better off than EURO, US economies. Got China pumping a bit of cash which got the XJO moving up agains the rest of Asia including china  Still a sh!te load of money flushing through the system straight into risk trades yet thats mostely helped AUD not our equities (fundamentally that makes sense but since when did fundamentals stop a bull run??).


----------



## Mr Z

*Warren, Ben and Gold*

It is likely they will never get it.


----------



## sinner

*Re: Warren, Ben and Gold*



Mr Z said:


> It is likely they will never get it.




Hi Mr Z,

I read it, but found it poor in comparison to FOFOAs deconstruction of the same...I posted a thread on the topic but nobody replied. Considering the nature of ASF I assumed it would have spurred some serious discussion.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24349

IMHO FOFOA continues to pump out amazing stuff and his latest missive against Buffetts article in Fortune is as cogent and convincing as ever.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

To $32,659 on 16 Jan 2015 

See Elliott Wave analysis chart here http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php

Not being an Elliott wave expert, not sure where the fifth wave extension of fifth wave extension comes from, but I'm not arguing with the conclusion.


----------



## Trembling Hand

I thought we were meant to be already at $10,000 during 2012


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> I thought we were meant to be already at $10,000 during 2012




Keep up TH! The new target is >55,000USD for physical and $0 for COMEX GC in 2013!


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Keep up TH! The new target is >55,000USD for physical and $0 for COMEX GC in 2013!




Cool. I'll arb it 

But seriously she has a lot of work to do before its parabolic. These calls are like the Elliotwave calls for dow 1000 and XJO 500 back in 2009. Sure it may happen but I'm not going call a halt to my business and wait for it.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Cool. I'll arb it
> 
> But seriously she has a lot of work to do before its parabolic. These calls are like the Elliotwave calls for dow 1000 and XJO 500 back in 2009. Sure it may happen but I'm not going call a halt to my business and wait for it.




Might be different for the AUD is my guess, since we can and do export gold as long as there's enough energy going around to do so. Gold moved up to number 3 in exports behind coal and NG last year, no reason it can't be number 1 and at the right price make the balance of trade stable.

In regards to halting your business, with all due respect sir, this is a battle of savers versus debtors. Your only job in that regard is not to get caught in the middle when the fight is on (since the battleground is your business).

A trader is only another economic agent which can be either debtor or saver; the battle isn't what productive economic activity but rather what store of value do the (*really big*) producers/savers save in.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Might be different for the AUD is my guess.



Yep that has always been my view too.



sinner said:


> In regards to halting your business, with all due respect sir, this is a battle of savers versus debtors. Your only job in that regard is not to get caught in the middle when the fight is on (since the battleground is your business).



Which to me a glance over the PM charts is a while away yet.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> I thought we were meant to be already at $10,000 during 2012




Its not over yet, 

he he he.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Its not over yet,



 I know you will be waiting for as long as it takes just like a Collingwood fan. No other way, no other possibility


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Which to me a glance over the PM charts is a while away yet.




The chart is fun, but to a producer shouldn't matter so much, just the availability.

e.g. when my body stores glucose as fat, it doesn't ask 'how much did the hamburger cost?', it simply allocates a portion of all inputs aside in the most efficient form available. It isn't looking for an energy increase by doing so, simply that any surplus energy (after energy costs) can be stored and called upon later. 

So with the fat, as with the gold. 

It's not a question of the price (chart) of gold at the margins, since when the USD gives way as an efficient storage mechanism, it's not likely to show up on the COMEX GC chart in the way you'd naturally think.

Better question the availability of it at trade surplus/Central Bank sizes. A look at the ECB quarterly ConFinStats is quite enlightening as an example.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> I know you will be waiting for as long as it takes just like a Collingwood fan. No other way, no other possibility




No waiting required, 

in 12 years the Dow is up 6% and gold is up 530% and rising

Got gold?


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> No waiting required,
> 
> in 12 years the Dow is up 6% and gold is up 530% and rising
> 
> Got gold?




If I held gold for the last 12 years, which is actually only a bit longer than I have been trading, I would be homeless and starving. 

So I would have to say I have far far far exceed that rise. Glad I wasn't on it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Interesting race going on here,


----------



## aclassic

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting race going on here,
> View attachment 46232
> View attachment 46233




Race

Manipulation ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

aclassic said:


> Manipulation ?




By?


----------



## aclassic

Trembling Hand said:


> By?




Hey I'm no expert, others here will be able to tell u exactly.

Does it matter who by.

Those who have been hammering silver for the last few months whenever it looked like gettin off the chain.

Maybe look at a 6  or 12 month chart for those massive dives.


----------



## Trembling Hand

aclassic said:


> Hey I'm no expert, others here will be able to tell u exactly.



LOL I doubt it.



aclassic said:


> Does it matter who by.



 My guess is it was all the CTA's, Hedgies and nutzo leveraged retail that got blown up. Normal market for mine. :couch


----------



## aclassic

OK I must fess up before too deep.

my knowledge = zip.

just my observation of incredible drops of ag price in past 6 months in NY for instance.

while watching flow on for PMs

cheers


----------



## Tysonboss1

aclassic said:


> OK I must fess up before too deep.
> 
> my knowledge = zip.
> 
> just my observation of incredible drops of ag price in past 6 months in NY for instance.
> 
> while watching flow on for PMs
> 
> cheers




why does a drop have to represent manipulation


----------



## Tysonboss1

explod said:


> No waiting required,
> 
> in 12 years the Dow is up 6% and gold is up 530% and rising
> 
> Got gold?




the dow paid dividends,

lets overlay a longer history for a more acurrate picture, can we see they figures for a 20year holding period.

Here is the mistake you are making, you are assuming because gold has risen 530% compared to only 6% for the dow that gold will make a better investment in the future.

The truth is that the fact that the dow has lagged will make it a prime time to buy it and it will perform well,

the fact that gold has gone up in value by 530%, means it is now over valued and due for a long period of lag or perhaps a coorection


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tysonboss1 said:


> why does a drop have to represent manipulation




And the leverage on the short side evil while not a mention of the opposite?


----------



## aclassic

Tysonboss1 said:


> why does a drop have to represent manipulation




Good points people.

Upon reflection, Of course it doesn't.

So

Manipulation _never_ occurs.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tysonboss1 said:


> Here is the mistake you are making, you are assuming because gold has risen 530% compared to only 6% for the dow that gold will make a better investment in the future.




To me the real mistake is that 530% vs 6% is irrelevant. Its in no way applicable to how people trade/invest.

Imagine a business owner who takes $100,000 back in 2000 and bought gold *or *setup a new enterprise (my experience). An enterprise has the ability to pays ones living expenses while also providing great wealth. Or a half decent investor/trader. Its not like people just decide to buy the DOW and let it run forever.

But with the cost of bullion transaction thats almost what you are locked into doing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

aclassic said:


> Manipulation _never_ occurs.




Its only manipulation if you are on the wrong side. c:


----------



## aclassic

Trembling Hand said:


> Its only manipulation if you are on the wrong side. c:




I do agree with what you are saying there too.


----------



## Tysonboss1

aclassic said:


> Manipulation _never_ occurs.




It may do, but generally be through the term around when ever the market doesn't act the exact way they see it in there narrow veiw of the world.


----------



## aclassic

Tysonboss1 said:


> It may do, but generally be through the term around when ever the market doesn't act the exact way they see it in there narrow veiw of the world.




There appears to be people who claim to have witnessed bots or whatever (please overlook my lack of jargon knowledge) driving a price down and at the same time (when suitably driven down) buy larger volumes in return.
Would you say that does not occur?
If it does couldn't it be called manipulation?


----------



## Trembling Hand

aclassic said:


> There appears to be people who claim to have witnessed bots or whatever (please overlook my lack of jargon knowledge) driving a price down and at the same time (when suitably driven down) buy larger volumes in return.
> Would you say that does not occur?
> If it does couldn't it be called manipulation?




aclassic that is but the market. Has been for 200 years. Hopefully there will be another 100 years more.

I see it everyday in every direction in every instrument. For some reason its considered evil when it happens to PMs. Do not think thats unique to PMs and that it only applies to falls. It doesn't. Also do not think the odd washout or short squeeze on a short time frame will change Golds price over the longer time frame.


----------



## aclassic

Thanks Trembling Hand.

good handle too.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> I see it everyday in every direction in every instrument.




And just to back me up right on time . If you have access to any intraday charts of FX, Commods or Equity indexs (asian) have a look at the run up since 4:30. Big time bot walk up. Including gold 

Will post some charts latta.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> To me the real mistake is that 530% vs 6% is irrelevant. Its in no way applicable to how people trade/invest.




I actually agree here.



> Imagine a business owner who takes $100,000 back in 2000 and bought gold *or *setup a new enterprise (my experience). An enterprise has the ability to pays ones living expenses while also providing great wealth. Or a half decent investor/trader. Its not like people just decide to buy the DOW and let it run forever.




Disagree here. Gold is what you put your surplus productivity into, not what you invest in as a productive asset. As a great example, in the country of Australia it's mandatory for every legal employer to contribute >7% of their employees productivity to a superannuation account. Almost all of which are invested largely in Australian equities. Surely at least in this case, you can see that many people do indeed "buy the DOW and let it run forever". 

...



As for the action in gold priced in AUD: a nice kick in USD price gold combined with some indecision in the AUDUSD markets provided a moderately bullish test/bounce from the 40 day breakout event earlier this week. Event test/bounce can be a good low risk swing entry (especially combined with the inside bar present), if you are into that sort of thing. Otherwise it is only a modest bullish confirmation, without penetrating the prior days high. Resistance at 1673-5ish only leads to more resistance. A lot of work to push into the 1760-1830 range, where even more work is required to generate a serious breakout without faltering. Supports remain unchanged, aside from short term support/swing low which developed last night on the event test.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Disagree here. Gold is what you put your surplus productivity into, not what you invest in as a productive asset. As a great example, in the country of Australia it's mandatory for every legal employer to contribute >7% of their employees productivity to a superannuation account. Almost all of which are invested largely in Australian equities. Surely at least in this case, you can see that many people do indeed "buy the DOW and let it run forever".



Yeah glad your reminded me of Super. That is, for most people, "buy the DOW and let it run forever" with the added cr@p of all the gov rules. Which is exactly why I stopped taking money out of my business as wages a long time. Once I do that I was getting what I considered a 9% extra "tax".

I do understand the "Gold is what you put your surplus productivity into, not what you invest in as a productive asset." thing. Which traditional people have used housing investment for. But as a trader who has very liquid markets to trade as yet Gold @ 530% return over whatever years still has not attracted me. Especially with the transaction cost.

And especially for someone who lives in the Banana Republic of Oz rather than the other soon to be failed states, US, UK, EURO etc. I cannot be super bullish GOLD while thinking the AUD is still in a long term uptrend. To me one and the same trend.


----------



## explod

> Logique
> 
> Re: The Five Commandments of Aussie Stock Forums
> 
> Not for one minute saying or implying that it's trolling, but must admit, it's a tough crowd in the gold price thread, very contentious in there.




Thought I would drag this over to where it is more relevant and thanks Logique.

It is very contentious as a strengthening gold price is a signal that something is wrong in the system.  The Governments and bankers do not like that and you can be sure they have input on the forums.

Good points Sinner.

In addition gold is a store of wealth in uncertain times.  Not to make money per se but to protect a capital base.  One of the things for example holding up quality property prices in my area is for the same reason.

Now watch the hairs raise up when I repeat "cash is trash" in the current q/e age.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> The Governments and bankers do not like that and you can be sure they have input on the forums.




Classic                    I-)


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Classic                    I-)




Perhaps a little bit worried the system may be broken there T/H

Uncertain times makes gold strong and we certainly have that mix at the moment.

Just a rumour that there may be a significant Helenic money event later today.

And you all know that I am most usually wrong.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Uncertain times makes gold strong and we certainly have that mix at the moment.




Tunnel vision much?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Tunnel vision much?




Yeh, I know, hot air rises much faster.

On the rumour via JSMinset:



> LONDON, February 28, 2012 - The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA), as secretary to the Determinations Committees (the DCs), today announced that a question relating to a potential credit event with respect to the Hellenic Republic has been submitted to, and subsequently accepted for consideration by, the EMEA Determinations Committee.
> 
> In accordance with the Determinations Committee Rules, a meeting will be held at 11AM GMT on Thursday, March 1 to determine whether a credit event has occurred.
> 
> Further information regarding the question is available at www.isda.org/credit.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Yeh, I know, hot air rises much faster.
> 
> On the rumour via JSMinset:



 They must be walking it before the smack down hey? Only reason for gold being left behind?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> They must be walking it before the smack down hey? Only reason for gold being left behind?




You will note (though bullish) that I do not call gold prices.  

As a trend follower I try to go with what the market is saying.  That includes charts and other avenues of gauging sentiment.

Gold has been going up since 2001 and looks like it is going to continue.

But if you want to do a bit of research, silver is going to be the big one in my view.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> As a trend follower I try to go with what the market is saying.  That includes charts and other avenues of gauging sentiment.




Does that include conspiracy?



explod said:


> The Governments and bankers do not like that and you can be sure they have input on the forums.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> But if you want to do a bit of research, silver is going to be the big one in my view.




My view is the opposite, silver will continue moving further and further away from its role as a monetary metal (as it is far too industrially useful in soooo many applications to simply sit there) and gold will continue exactly where it is, as the monetary metal of choice for the entire world. Central Banks especially.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Does that include conspiracy?




Not conspiracy at all, just ask helecopter Ben.  "...no it is not money"


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> My view is the opposite, silver will continue moving further and further away from its role as a monetary metal (as it is far too industrially useful in soooo many applications to simply sit there) and gold will continue exactly where it is, as the monetary metal of choice for the entire world. Central Banks especially.




Lets talk about this in the silver thread.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Not conspiracy at all, just ask helecopter Ben.  "...no it is not money"




So hold on. You said,



explod said:


> It is very contentious as a strengthening gold price is a signal that something is wrong in the system.  The Governments and bankers do not like that and *you can be sure they have input on the forums.*




I just want to clear up your comment.  _Governments and bankers... have input on the forums_ such as this in relation to talking down GOLD/PMs?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> So hold on. You said,
> 
> 
> 
> I just want to clear up your comment.  _Governments and bankers... have input on the forums_ such as this in relation to talking down GOLD/PMs?




Strewth, its hard to break rocks.

Talk to any banker about gold and they think you are crazy, I have had the experience and others I know have too.

There is always that hint on the news at night, Craige James of Comsec, Olliver from AMP and Collier on ABC not much better.  And it gets through to the public interested in finance, sort of the feeling and you can just feel this type of influence coming out by the different nuances of posters here on ASF.

Just like the local solicitor in the film The Castle  "Your Worship its the vibe, yes the vibe that's it your worship and I rest my case"


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Talk to any banker about gold and they think you are crazy, I have had the experience and others I know have too.
> 
> There is always that hint on the news at night, Craige James of Comsec, Olliver from AMP and Collier on ABC not much better.  And it gets through to the public interested in finance, sort of the feeling and you can just feel this type of influence coming out by the different nuances of posters here on ASF.




Are you serious?

I can only from my poor memory think of two posters that don't think Gold isn't the ducks nutz. Me And Tysonboss.

Just LOL so I'm influenced by Craige James, Olliver because I don't agree with you.

I get it. I'm a Gold Denier. :evilburn:


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Are you serious?
> 
> I can only from my poor memory think of two posters that don't think Gold isn't the ducks nutz. Me And Tysonboss.
> 
> Just LOL so I'm influenced by Craige James, Olliver because I don't agree with you.
> 
> I get it. I'm a Gold Denier. :evilburn:




Now you want to work the man again.

I do not have any idea on your real thoughts on gold because they have not been expressed.

I was trying to explain some of my not so thought through shorthand comments.

Will try to elaborate more in future.

And we are off topic *again*


----------



## Trembling Hand

Explod for some reason you see nothing wrong in making blatantly wrong and completely unproven statements then get upset when called to clarify.

Do you know how hard it is to discuss a difference of opinion with someone who makes **** up. Its hardly conducive to a good and on going discussion.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Explod for some reason you see nothing wrong in making blatantly wrong and completely unproven statements then get upset when called to clarify.
> 
> Do you know how hard it is to discuss a difference of opinion with someone who makes **** up. Its hardly conducive to a good and on going discussion.




I do not make things up, (and you're swearing again too)

Give an example of something I have made up and will gladly try to clarify.

And having worked in the past with lettered Sociologists (one with whom I still fraternise) I can inform that the media propaganda is something that is massaged by those in wealth and power to gradually influence *government* and public perceptions.  And as you ought to know we are now getting into an area, though seen as subjective it is an objective science, in which it can takes books to explain.

As in religion brainwashing is alive and well.

This needs to go to my Gobbledygook thread and be on topic


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I do not make things up, (and you're swearing again too)
> 
> Give an example of something I have made up and will gladly clarify.






explod said:


> The Governments and bankers do not like that and you can be *sure* they have input on the forums.




This is utter BS


----------



## tinhat

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah glad your reminded me of Super. That is, for most people, "buy the DOW and let it run forever" with the added cr@p of all the gov rules. Which is exactly why I stopped taking money out of my business as wages a long time. Once I do that I was getting what I considered a 9% extra "tax".




That statement doesn't make much sense to me. Super is a massive tax break, not an extra tax. If you are running your own business then you have lots of flexibility to maximise that tax break. You can salary sacrifice and only pay 15% tax on the income you contribute and then you only have to pay 15% on all the earnings while they are accumulating in the super fund. You can manage your own super fund and you are in complete control of your money. You can buy gold, stamps, what-ever is a reasonable investment. I think our SMSF cost around $2,600 last year to run (for two people) and that included an actuarial certificate which you wouldn't need.

The one risk is the risk of regulatory changes in the future. The degree to which you are exposed to that depends on your age.


----------



## skyQuake

Given a smack tonight. Copper, Euro same thing.
Behaved beautifully technically - Bounced $20 from the 1707 low.
These are the nights worth staying up for!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tinhat said:


> That statement doesn't make much sense to me. Super is a massive tax break, not an extra tax. If you are running your own business then you have lots of flexibility to maximise that tax break.




But Tinhat that is actually my point. Just because something is a _reasonable _investment, super, gold, whatever doesn't make it a _better _investment than what I'm doing.

You think paying money from my business capital which is taxed @ 30% yet completely free for me to do as I please, into a restricted fund for 30 years which I cannot use for my business  to be taxed at 15% and earn a reduced return is wise? Its not, not on the numbers alone let alone the fact that the money is not mine for 30 to god knows how long years.

And thats my point about gold/silver "investment" it may be/may have been a _good _investment, its just that I believe it will not be the _best _investment for my business capital.

Not yet.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> As for the action in gold priced in AUD: a nice kick in USD price gold combined with some indecision in the AUDUSD markets provided a moderately bullish test/bounce from the 40 day breakout event earlier this week. Event test/bounce can be a good low risk swing entry (especially combined with the inside bar present), if you are into that sort of thing. Otherwise it is only a modest bullish confirmation, without penetrating the prior days high. Resistance at 1673-5ish only leads to more resistance. A lot of work to push into the 1760-1830 range, where even more work is required to generate a serious breakout without faltering. Supports remain unchanged, aside from short term support/swing low which developed last night on the event test.




Well that puts the breakout to shame! I had to zoom down to the intraday charts to see where support failed last night! Looks like once the new daily swing low at 1640 gave way it was a little bit of a panic! Old daily support at 1575 seems to have stopped the offers for now.




Will post more thoughts on the w/e.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> But Tinhat that is actually my point. Just because something is a _reasonable _investment, super, gold, whatever doesn't make it a _better _investment than what I'm doing.
> 
> You think paying money from my business capital which is taxed @ 30% yet completely free for me to do as I please, into a restricted fund for 30 years which I cannot use for my business  to be taxed at 15% and earn a reduced return is wise? Its not, not on the numbers alone let alone the fact that the money is not mine for 30 to god knows how long years.
> 
> And thats my point about gold/silver "investment" it may be/may have been a _good _investment, its just that I believe it will not be the _best _investment for my business capital.
> 
> Not yet.




I agree - for those who can do better than the crowd surfing, talk-it-up fund managers super is a ponzi con for the sheeples, although the concept is commendable as a source of funds for retirement. I simply don't believe any of mine will be there when I retire anyway, the way things are going. Something along the lines of too many eggs in the one basket, with china holding the basket!

Back to the topic, whilever the fundamentals remain in place, gold will continue to be a store of accumulated fiat wealth - locking in the value of a fiat dollar at any point of time.

So the call would be made 'but everything is going great now - just look at the Dow & the data coming out'? Well yes & no. Yes the data shows a recovery but the data is either incorrect, manipulated to suit politically or both! I can put forward any number of examples. The underlying fundamentals for gold still remain in place and in fact continue to get stronger, despite dropping $100 in a session. 

Gold needs a good correction for the next leg up to be strong - and with the $AU/$US at this level we should get some good leverage for when the $AU finally capitulates on a worsening financial climate in China ie the $AU is severely overbought on the China dream? (Shorted @ 1.083 )


----------



## DB008

Gold Falls in ‘Manic’ Plunge as Bernanke Damps Stimulus Bets - Bloomberg



> Gold fell as much as $100 to below $1,700 an ounce on signs that that the Federal Reserve will refrain from offering more monetary stimulus to bolster the U.S. economy.
> 
> In testimony before Congress today, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke gave no signal that the central bank will take new steps to boost liquidity. The dollar rose as much as 0.8 percent against a basket of major currencies, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Yesterday, gold reached $1,792.70 an ounce, a three-month high.
> 
> “People were expecting that the Fed would loosen policies, even if the perception is that the economy is doing well,” James Dailey, who manages $215 million at TEAM Financial Management LLC in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview. “The investor sentiment changed as the Fed committed to nothing. This is the manic nature of the market.”
> 
> In electronic trading on the Comex in New York, gold futures for April delivery fell $91.40, or 5.1 percent, to $1,697 at 4:39 p.m., compared with yesterday’s settlement. Earlier, the price tumbled as much as $100, or 5.6 percent, to $1,688.40, the lowest for a most-active contract since Jan. 25.






Kitco Spot Price overnight




(Unsurprisingly, Silver also dipped as much as $3)


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> I cannot be super bullish GOLD while thinking the AUD is still in a long term uptrend. To me one and the same trend.




I was thinking a lot about this today. I mean, the AUD is definitely in a long term up trend against a lot of things, like the currencies of our trade partners, hell even against the XJO, the AUD looks like it is doing pretty good...

and yet something was niggling me. The AUD isn't in a long term up trend against *everything*, in fact AUD has been in a long term *down* trend of the very asset class this thread is about!





You can see that while gold and the AUD used to be "one and the same thing" (high component correlation=narrow trading band of the component ratio), that has long since changed.


----------



## drillinto

Gold Crushed

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/2/29/gold-crushed.html
***


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> The AUD isn't in a long term up trend against *everything*, in fact AUD has been in a long term *down* trend of the very asset class this thread is about!
> 
> You can see that while gold and the AUD used to be "one and the same thing" (high component correlation=narrow trading band of the component ratio), that has long since changed.



The charts are misleading to a degree. A commodities will double/triple etc with ease relative to a currency. The fact that AUD has held up against "a basket" of products is the important thing to me. As I don't need to buy gold with my AUD but I certainly do need to buy a basket of other products.

Thats the trend that important to me. Which I still think there is a correlation of sorts there.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> The charts are misleading to a degree. A commodities will double/triple etc with ease relative to a currency. The fact that AUD has held up against "a basket" of products is the important thing to me. As I don't need to buy gold with my AUD but I certainly do need to buy a basket of other products.
> 
> Thats the trend that important to me. Which I still think there is a correlation of sorts there.




When Central Banks start adding other commodities to their balance sheet as an asset, or start disgorging all their gold, then we can talk about gold being part of that 'basket'. But for now, it is clearly a monetary metal, exempt from the usual 'commodity' moniker. The best evidence of this lies in *Stock to Flow ratios*, the governing mechanism for commodity prices, are inverted for gold versus other commodities (even silver). That is, you can't expect a higher price of gold to bring on more production to cap price or meet increased demand, as you would in the case of most other commodities. Rather there is a strong (and rising?) price floor at the average cost of production

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41058173/Gold_Cost_of_Production

below which, sufficient quantities of gold will not flow to those who demand it.



> As I don't need to buy gold with my AUD but I certainly do need to buy a basket of other products.




Just like you buy wheat or cattle to eat and oil to combust, you need to buy gold to save.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> As I don't need to buy gold with my AUD but I certainly do need to buy a basket of other products.
> 
> Thats the trend that important to me. Which I still think there is a correlation of sorts there.




Yes, but if you were looking at a chart or the price action and didn't know or care that it was gold _and_ you didn't get some of that action then you have missed the trend because of your aversion to g-o-l-d? Anyway, not sure what you are trying to advance/add here as you have proffered your view(s) on gold several times?? ie you either get it or not??

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Wednesday’s sell off is being attributed to one massive sell trade of  31 tonnes on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange during Bernanke’s speech.  There are rumours of a large US fund selling and also that the selling  may have been by JP Morgan – rumoured to be acting on behalf of an Asian  fund.
Who sold off and why is less important than the fundamentals of the gold market.
Absolutely nothing has changed regarding the fundamentals of gold  which remain as sound as ever with broad based demand from store of  wealth buyers, institutions and central banks internationally and  especially in Asia. Good volumes have been seen on the Shanghai Gold  Exchange in recent days.

*GoldCore*

So it takes 31 tonnes to drop it $100??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, but if you were looking at a chart or the price action and didn't know or care that it was gold _and_ you didn't get some of that action then you have missed the trend because of your aversion to g-o-l-d?



Oh I got some of the action. Just without the cost or risk of holding *long term* bullion. Thats is my point. Not holding bullion *up to this point *could be the best way to *trade *the gold trend.



Uncle Festivus said:


> Wednesday’s sell off is being attributed to one massive sell trade of  31 tonnes on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange during Bernanke’s speech.  There are rumours of a large US fund selling and also that the selling  may have been by JP Morgan – rumoured to be acting on behalf of an Asian  fund.



This is where my " aversion to g-o-l-d" comes from. The reporting of "events" just never ring true in fact ring closer to BS than real events. So in that hour there was 90,000 contracts sold, just so happens that thats about 31 tonnes. So there was only 1 seller? LOL!!!






Uncle Festivus said:


> Absolutely nothing has changed regarding the fundamentals of gold  which remain as sound as ever with broad based demand from store of  wealth buyers, institutions and central banks internationally and  especially in Asia. Good volumes have been seen on the Shanghai Gold  Exchange in recent days.



Well this I can agree on technically long term nothing much has changed. And open interest hardly moved, just a decrease of 1% (just 13 tonnes).  




But on a shorter term view these massive washouts are not a friend of a longer term trend.


----------



## DB008

TheAppleInvestor has a look at Gold and Silver futures + risk....

Gold and Silver Hedge Too Risky


----------



## Trembling Hand

DB008 said:


> TheAppleInvestor has a look at Gold and Silver futures + risk....
> 
> Gold and Silver Hedge Too Risky




IMHO he has it completely wrong. Risk has very little to do with minimum exchange margin unless you are a cowboy. :cowboy::badass:

In fact you cannot look at risk in trading by simply looking at margin without also looking at opportunity. In case of gold or commodities in general they offer a far greater R:R than the locked up S&P.


----------



## Mr Z

http://goldsilver.com/news/guest-post-warren-buffett-priced-in-gold/ ---> LOL!

Gold is a managed market... period, end of story. It is the political metal, to think otherwise is tooth fairy stuff


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> http://goldsilver.com/news/guest-post-warren-buffett-priced-in-gold/ ---> LOL!
> 
> Gold is a managed market... period, end of story. It is the political metal, to think otherwise is tooth fairy stuff




That chart was interesting in that I continually come across several similar charts that seem to indicate that 'peak capitalism' occurred around the year 2000-2001 and that what we have had since is just an attempt to keep the fiat ponzi scheme continuing. It also coincides with the rise of gold as an alternative?

You could always bet against the manipulators - I've shorted JPM several times now....

And TH, that bit at the end of one of your posts - 



> And thats my point about gold/silver "investment" it may be/may have been a _good _investment, its just that I believe it will not be the _best _investment for my business capital.
> 
> Not yet



'Not yet' maybe closer than you think - time to lock in your gains in fiat with some hot & heavy physical?


----------



## Mr Z

How can it be "Peak Capitalism" when we have not had "Capitalism" for many, many decades?

This is Crony Capitalism failing due to too much political influence in the economy, these failures ultimately lay at governments feet.... LOL, the US is closer to a Fascist State than it is a Capitalist one!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> How can it be "Peak Capitalism" when we have not had "Capitalism" for many, many decades?
> 
> This is Crony Capitalism failing due to too much political influence in the economy, these failures ultimately lay at governments feet.... LOL, the US is closer to a Fascist State than it is a Capitalist one!




OK, 'the system' then?

_We_ all knew it ('the system') was a game, it's just that now a lot more people know as well, and can see how corrupt it is, and may just doing something (violent??) about it?

_Blythe Masters is the chief of commodity trading at JPM, and the apparent mastermind behind their gargantuan short position in silver.

Previously, Ms. Masters attained fame for having helped to create credit default swaps.

Their fierce performance in crushing Goldman Sachs in the commodity pits has earned Jamie Dimon and Blythe Masters the fearsome nicknames, "Sharkboy and Lava Girl."_


----------



## Mr Z

When has it ever not been a game of some sort? I don't think it will end as such, it will just morph into a different game depending on who comes out of this with the political power or "social license" and what their goals are. Are we going to elect to be beaten into some green socialist quasi communist mold? Are we going to extract big government from is ever increasing roll in what where once private lives? Just what philosophy will drive us where and how misguided will it be? Who will end up in the "White House" and who will end up on the gallows?  

Your mission is to survive the best you can whatever the outcome of this massive mess... 

IMO 2013 is shaping up to be yet another major trauma... I wonder where that will leave us?

Ain't this fun!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> That chart was interesting in that I continually come across several similar charts that seem to indicate that 'peak capitalism' occurred around the year 2000-2001 and that what we have had since is just an attempt to keep the fiat ponzi scheme continuing. It also coincides with the rise of gold as an alternative?



Maybe you need to look at some better charts. 





Uncle Festivus said:


> And TH, that bit at the end of one of your posts -
> 
> 'Not yet' maybe closer than you think - time to lock in your gains in fiat with some hot & heavy physical?




Well that would make a good discussion. But what would be a sign to swap from paper gold(COMEX) with tiny cost, easy trade-ability ,leverage and a perfect correlation to physical?? All things that bullion have not got and with spreads like these will lock you into a trade.




look at the spread on silver!! Is that a joke?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Well that would make a good discussion. But what would be a sign to swap from paper gold(COMEX) with tiny cost, easy trade-ability ,leverage and a perfect correlation to physical?? All things that bullion have not got and with spreads like these will lock you into a trade.
> 
> View attachment 46324
> 
> 
> look at the spread on silver!! Is that a joke?




A sign? When Lavagirl starts to lose and Comex goes (arbitrarily imposed?) limit up/down? Or for that matter simply suspends trading because of lack of confidence in the market - several nails were inserted into it's coffin with the MF Global bust fiasco........expect markets to be halted as it gets worse.....

Not sure where your prices are from, but if you know the right people/companies you can get better ie 500gms @ 2.8%? For me though I'm not looking to even think about buying more until it get's below $1500, then see how close it get's to $1200??

With the 'unwind' of fiat, spread would be the last of your concerns?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not sure where your prices are from, but if you know the right people/companies you can get better ie 500gms @ 2.8%?




Perth mint.

Then again *if *I ever wanted to get my hands on the phisical I would just hold the contracts to expiray and pay a spread of $0.01. Bullion dealers.. LOL


----------



## sinner

XAU/AUD. Pivot/old weekly support and where we might go if it fails. A down channel appears to be forming, probably better viewed on the daily.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Perth mint.
> 
> Then again *if *I ever wanted to get my hands on the phisical I would just hold the contracts to expiray and pay a spread of $0.01. Bullion dealers.. LOL




Interesting to see if you would get your physical? Would there be fees to be paid as well ie delivery, minting etc? Have you ever looked at the process of taking delivery?


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting to see if you would get your physical? Would there be fees to be paid as well ie delivery, minting etc? Have you ever looked at the process of taking delivery?




Kyle Bass, who is a big player with a good (imho) view, looked into it. Definitely worth watching this as it describes the (approx) OI at COMEX across futs and opts, the difference between the OI vs the amount of deliverable metal (80bn vs 4bn), cost of rolling futs (~90bps/y), etc etc as the perspective of someone who was (until recently) a large spec long in the GC futs and lists the reasons they took delivery:



Mostly because. 

a) They want to hold it for a long time. i.e. 'saving' not 'trading'. If you watch the whole talk he says they are holding pretty much nothing but US, EU gov credit and gold. Much like the ECB balance sheet!
b) COMEX is "fractional reserve" (Bass) and the reserve managers at COMEX expect 'price will sort it out' re any mismatch between OI and deliverable.

I believe he also advises the UTexas pension fund (one of the few holding gold), and they took delivery from COMEX too.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting to see if you would get your physical? Would there be fees to be paid as well ie delivery, minting etc? Have you ever looked at the process of taking delivery?




Had a quick look this morning. Couldn't find much info, will look into it and report back.

Delivery for the short side of the contract is to one of these,

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/gold-depositories.html

The pick up and deliver fee etc. No idea.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh just to add to that I do know that my broker does not allow delivery of commodes. So I would have to use another broker.

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=deliveryExerciseActions&ib_entity=llc


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Maybe you need to look at some better charts.
> View attachment 46323




Peak AAPL then? Got my shorts on it  .


----------



## explod

Some interesting reflections on gold of late.

.   in the first fifty years of the 1900's for every dollar of debt $5 of GDP was created.
    in the last eleven years for every dollar of created debt we have 6 cents of GDP. 

.   Less than 1% of World financial assets are in gold

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._to_the_$120_Trillion_of_Additional_Debt.html

On his departure from JPMorgan, Geg Smith had this to say about the recent sell down:-



> "January is right around the time we started increasing our short positions quite significantly again and this most recent crash in gold and silver during Bernanke’s speech on February 29th is of notable importance, as we along with 4 other major institutions, orchestrated the violent $100 drop in Gold and subsequent drops in silver".




There were numerous other pundits and traders on the ground indicating the banks actions prior to Smith speaking out.

Just seemed a bit subdued around this patch of late.   I have been busy still scrounging more silver but just thought I'd give


----------



## Logique

I don't see it breaking below $1600 support, seems quite a strong zone.


----------



## explod

Logique said:


> I don't see it breaking below $1600 support, seems quite a strong zone.




Agree but in this crazy financial market volatility seems the name of the game and anything is possible.

Have been examining the long term point and figure chart on gold and the bottom of the trend line, which commenced on the low set on the 25th of August 1999 is currently at about US$1390.   To show that things are okay with the Presidential election coming up, I would not put it past the system to try and test that point.

Interesting times indeed.

Anyway, off topic, we have the Grand Prix on in Melbourne this weekend which is great to help breed the next generation of hoons so as to keep the plods in a job.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Can Ben Bernanke be any less subtle about the fact that QE1 & QE2 have failed miserably and that QE3 is 'packed up & ready to go', or am I missing the plot completely? That things are going so good with 'The Recovery' that they see the need for more push priming of consumption from the future? All the while continuing to run $Trillion deficits and no improvement in reducing Federal expenditure with stagnant receipts?

Reminds me of Eruptions hit 1 Way Ticket to the Blues - 

_Choo choo train
tuckin' down the track
gotta travel on it
never comin' back
ooh got a one way ticket to the blues.

gotta take a trip to lonesome town 
gonna stay at heartbreak hotel.
A fool such as I such as I will never
I cry my tears away._

Good for gold, but it just doesn't feel right anymore, not that it was ever such?

Student loans $Trillion Bubble deflating with $80Billion in non conforming loans......

Meanwhile shorts have capitulated, insiders are selling at record rates and the Dow blows off......

And, Sturm, _Ruger_ & Co can't keep up with gun production.........

It's going to be worse than I thought........................


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> QE3 is 'packed up & ready to go', or am I missing the plot completely?




Naaah, he's just reaching for his cigarette lighter to help those technical clocken in the buy orders.  Sentiments a wonderful thing and a lot cheaper than inflation.
"Boooo.  Scarred ya's all short, din I!"
Ooops, nearly forgot, some window dressen to do.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> Naaah, he's just reaching for his cigarette lighter to help those technical clocken in the buy orders.  Sentiments a wonderful thing and a lot cheaper than inflation.
> "Boooo.  Scarred ya's all short, din I!"




Yes, but sooner rather than later he's gonna have to put up or get the truck outa there as the fundamentals like employment get revised back down and they realise there hasn't actually been an economic recovery - merely a money shuffling bubble. Keep on keeping on.........until the $700 TRILLION in global derivatives vaporise?


----------



## notting

Maybe but don't forget employments the backward looking indcator, last to move, he's just using it as an excuse to look like a white bird and keep the peace.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

Trembling Hand said:


> I just want to clear up your comment.  _Governments and bankers... have input on the forums_ such as this in relation to talking down GOLD/PMs?




Am I included in this, seeing as I work for Perth Mint which is WA Government owned? But then again, we go around helping people buy gold 

And re the buy/sell spreads, they are that wide primarily because we sit at recommended retail premiums on the sell side as we don't want to compete against our own dealers, and we also melt down any non-Perth Mint bar or coin we buyback (which is more costly then just reselling).


----------



## Mr Z

Prepared for $1600 first? We are not out of the woods yet IMO.


----------



## drillinto

Gold bumps its head !

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/3/28/gold-bumps-its-head.html
***


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I posted this 'theory/strategy' many moons ago but now someone has done some number crunching and put it in a chart. 

_We can easily see the startling difference in the chart below. It  compares the results of a simple 'buy and hold' investment in gold over  the past ten years vs. a more active (and clever) strategy that both  shorts gold during the daily hours and then buys gold long for the  overnight session:_




http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/gold-manipulated-thats-okay/72892

Taking advantage of the 'manipulated' market during US trading hours......._Bon AppÃ©tit_


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I posted this 'theory/strategy' many moons ago but now someone has done some number crunching and put it in a chart.
> 
> Taking advantage of the 'manipulated' market during US trading hours......




Yes its always manipulation.

Thats the same classic pattern that you see in just about every bull market.

BHP from 2003 -2008,


The spi system during the same time I think returned nearly $300,000 trading just 1 lot!!

Nothing here, just the way most markets move. Unless of course you .......... :alien2:


----------



## CanOz

Thanks for that TH, sort of visualizes what I've learned about the SPI thru my own testing. I've been trying to find a successful intra day system for the SPI for a week or so, but every attempt leads to the same thing, shorting the open, and covering at the close.....

I've not, until now thought to look at sycom.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## aclassic

Uncle Festivus said:


> I posted this 'theory/strategy' many moons ago but now someone has done some number crunching and put it in a chart.
> :[/I]
> 
> [/I]




Many thanks Uncs. food for thought.

I noticed a few months back when I watched AYN how it predictably fluctuated even intra our trade day. Haven't bothered since though after concentrating on NST and MAD.

It would be nice to be able to sustainably make a $ from workin the system.

cheers.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes its always manipulation.




Well I guess that just proves that _all_ markets are manipulated


----------



## tech/a

Short?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Gold always drops and rises on alternating Fed minutes, nothing to see here but a lot of manipulation.


----------



## tech/a

Starcraftmazter said:


> Gold always drops and rises on alternating Fed minutes, nothing to see here but a lot of manipulation.




Oh---


----------



## DB008

*Tungsten Filled 1 kilo Gold Bar Discovered in UK*

Now this is interesting....

*Tungsten Filled 1 kilo Gold Bar Discovered in UK
*


> Tungsten Filled 1 kilo Gold Bar Discovered in UK
> 
> In the biggest news we've broke since the JP Morgan whistle-blower stepped forward,
> Australian Bullion Dealer ABC Bullion has contacted SD to advise that one of its suppliers has provided them photographic evidence of a tungsten filled 1 kilo gold bar discovered this week.  The bar passed a hand-held xrf scan which showed 99.98% pure AU.
> The tungsten was only discovered when the bar was physically cut in half.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> After numerous reports of 400oz tungsten filled bars being discovered in Hong Kong, this is the first documented and verified report with photographic evidence that has been made public.




http://silverdoctors.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/tungsten-filled-1-kilo-gold-bar.html


----------



## sinner

Here is that down-channel I was talking about in XAUAUD. Lower channel is just a parallel projection off the upper.

Also, the pivot at 1581 remains a stubborn level. This chart shows all the bars since that price was first printer.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> When has it ever not been a game of some sort? I don't think it will end as such, it will just morph into a different game depending on who comes out of this with the political power or "social license" and what their goals are. Are we going to elect to be beaten into some green socialist quasi communist mold? Are we going to extract big government from is ever increasing roll in what where once private lives? Just what philosophy will drive us where and how misguided will it be? Who will end up in the "White House" and who will end up on the gallows?
> 
> Your mission is to survive the best you can whatever the outcome of this massive mess...
> 
> IMO 2013 is shaping up to be yet another major trauma... I wonder where that will leave us?
> 
> Ain't this fun!




Another chart for my 'peak capitalism' era early 2000's.......even muppets get it......



*The last time income per capita grew more than national debt per capita was 2002.*
*Ben Bernanke arrived at the Federal Reserve in 2002.*
*The last surplus was in 2001
*


----------



## joea

tech/a said:


> Short?




http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/20120417.html

joea


----------



## aclassic

joea said:


> http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/20120417.html
> 
> joea




Hi, thanks for that, I have read a similar article in the last month but on my watchlist of gold pms I didn't see :

"The Stampede to Buy Undervalued Gold Miners

If you plan on shopping for bargains in the gold miner department, you’re going to have to fight a crowd. Numerous global investors have been pounding the table for gold stocks, including Dr. Marc Faber who said “gold shares have become extremely oversold and could rebound in the next few days” in his April market commentary and Global Portfolio Strategist Don Coxe, who reiterated that gold equities are undervalued compared to the precious metal on his weekly conference call last Friday."

maybe my watchlist is lacking some good prospects?


cheers.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

NCM looks promising?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> NCM looks promising?




But Gold not doing much?


----------



## aclassic

Yes NCM and others floundering cause of and with gold is my layman's observation.
I think the above kind of releases into media have elements of truth but they mostly are advertorial - don't sectors of mining industry have PR machines?
Some gold pms announce huge hits in exploration and they are hardly raising an eyebrow.


----------



## blue0810

Uncle Festivus said:


> NCM looks promising?




No this month... so far:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/competition/


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> But Gold not doing much?
> 
> View attachment 46782




I didn't get the comparison between NEM/USD and NCM/AUD...

If you think that's not much check this out, seven weeks with almost no marginal supply or demand.



	

		
			
		

		
	
(barchart.com)


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Uncle Festivus said:


> *The last time income per capita grew more than national debt per capita was 2002.*
> *Ben Bernanke arrived at the Federal Reserve in 2002.*
> *The last surplus was in 2001
> *
> 
> View attachment 46765




That's very interesting. I wonder what it would be adjusted for inflation.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> If you think that's not much check this out, seven weeks with almost no marginal supply or demand.)




Yeah similar to the XJO. Going nowhere.


----------



## notting

It's interesting where NCM was (30s) when gold was I dunno 1300 or something. Then it shot up to 40 in anticipation of gold hitting 1600, whilst gold hitting that seemed pretty far out at the time.  Then gold overshoots at 1900 somethign and comes down to 1600 which used to seem far out and and NCM is at 28 something!!
Lihir wasn't that bad, was it?
Guess that makes it a relative buy!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Patience comrades, the tipping point is near?

Some stories about gold and Marc Faber.

Gold could test $1,400 to $1,500 says Marc Faber, aka ‘Dr. Doom’

Gold Bubble? “More People Own Apple Stock Than Gold”


----------



## Starcraftmazter

> Gold is down 1.6% on the week. The gold market has seen peculiar, lack lustre, low volume trading this week punctuated with sudden, oddly timed, very large sell orders. This leads to quick price falls followed either by slow, gradual recovery or a sharp bounce, prior to next bout of strangely timed sudden large sell orders.
> 
> This was clearly seen by the mysterious and massive $1.24 billion ‘Goldfinger’ trade on Monday.





Obvious the work of the cartel. Just wish I had a million dollars to buy a lot of gold and silver with - not sure if it will ever be this low again in my lifetime


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:


> Obvious the work of the cartel. Just wish I had a million dollars to buy a lot of gold and silver with - not sure if it will ever be this low again in my lifetime






> Gold is down 1.6% on the week. The gold market has seen peculiar, lack lustre, low volume trading this week punctuated with sudden, oddly timed, very large sell orders. This leads to quick price falls followed either by slow, gradual recovery or a sharp bounce, prior to next bout of strangely timed sudden large sell orders.




think about the information you're getting from that post......there's no peculiarity at all, it's just a market in contraction.....all volume being relative, the "low" volume is merely how you interpret _how_ the volume is being used for _what_ extent and to facilitate _which_ set-up....in other words, there is a clear phase being conducted by several traders in toto and in the quiet phases with entirely different outlooks with a dominant group conducting business not necessarily in a nefarious manner theyre simply organised within the confines of the auction....if less want to buy, then that's the clear message, not withstanding that there's no yield in spot/contract gold so weak buyers get in too early and shaken out plus you have those dominant size players who have been keen to 'facilitate' price discovery to a lower level....you can call that manipulation, but, coffee time, it's an auction

i've been watching and trading the low vol phases where you see simple ABC's up-down-up with consistant selling into that strength (for want of better descrip) it's fake strength, against the "near-term" trend not necessarily the weekly/monthly trend.....this mean opportunity to close longs for re-entry lower or if you're holding metal to get short on low leverage 

gold is one of those panic-sell markets that few people talk about too, as trend develops traders lose their lunch faster especially in  the whip-ups when the oops factor kicks in "i bought gold cheap, oops, too early" 



> not sure if it will ever be this low again in my lifetime



 true, you could see it a lot lower.....ah, cheap comedy 

2c


----------



## Joules MM1

...i think, right in this phase, there's some very good lessons on offer in gold.......in the price action on quiet hours where price lifts and in the faster up-lifts used to for selling into and the obvious heavy selling (we define as trend, i guess!) .......i think the gold market as an education, at least, offers an ardent student a good practice ground

get the whole world-crumbling-new-order-fed-shmed-fiat-shmiat out of your trading view......really, none of that stuff is actually in a pros trading view....not that i'm aware of ......


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Joules MM1 said:


> true, you could see it a lot lower.....ah, cheap comedy




I wish.



Joules MM1 said:


> get the whole world-crumbling-new-order-fed-shmed-fiat-shmiat out of your trading view......really, none of that stuff is actually in a pros trading view....not that i'm aware of ......




Why? Why trade in a highly manipulated market, where the manipulators can see the entire market depth, and short billions in coercion to drive through stops?


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:


> Why? Why trade in a highly manipulated market, where the manipulators can see the entire market depth, and short billions in coercion to drive through stops?




i just contradicted myself.....the pros view does include other traders thinking, _where_ youre likely to be convinced to buy or sell, what kind of patterning a chart follower would be convinced to trade on......if gold is so cheap to some then it's also a perfect time to sell into that cheap buying, the cheap buyers provide the opportunity for pro shorters to sell high buy low and for a cheap buyer they are  simply assisting that group of pros by buying at the time pros are covering ....a diff tier of money being used, i  mean, really, the major money could care less about retail crowd cos its so small and the major money is the trend driver ....so _who_ is the pro trading between those phases?

clearly not all the traffic is designed to take out stops, again, major money has targets which have nothing to do with stops because, stops or not, they know there are levels you'll puke at anyways, most importantly, their liquidity agenda is simply on a diff agenda to what most retailers think it is.....once a herd is rolling it's rolling...giddyup....


----------



## Joules MM1

gold market is just a liquidity facility in the form of an auction for most pros.....maybe not for the banks who recently used facilities to build their physical needs, theyre a different outlook again, they dont care about a cupla hundred $ either side of their needs so why should a retailer......the gold market as a liquidity vehicle for pro traders is merely a fluid map.....that's quite different to calling trade a manipulation.....as a retailer you can only play within the confines of the auction too, same as them......do some pros have good data sets on who is likely to be entering for seasonal/cyclic reasons or portfolio adjustment reasons, yes, but, it's limited game......the auction is still  a level playing field and retailers think they should have an equal footing by virtue of simply entering the arena....if i know you'll be buying when i want to sell, i'm going to wait until i think the move is exhausted, youre in, i'm selling....not that my plan is any better, maybe i am limited to small spectrum of price discovery and can work inside that than worry about mythical cartels......

just saying


----------



## Logique

Mr Market: had quite enough of this sideways meandering thanks very much.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Starcraftmazter said:


> Obvious the work of the cartel. Just wish I had a million dollars to buy a lot of gold and silver with - not sure if it will ever be this low again in my lifetime




I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it a lot lower soon - anywhere between 1200-1500?

It's just going through one of it's many 'boring' phases after a big run up - these can take a year or so to unwind?

It's still all about relative 'value' between competing currencies - Euro, Yen, Pound, DM, USD or gold.

Have to wait for each to 'devalue' against the USD, and then for the USD to devalue against gold? So wait for the big dip as the USD becomes the repository of safety, then it doesn't.......then we will see some action, but not sure what type of world we will have to live in?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Why? Why trade in a highly manipulated market, where the manipulators can see the entire market depth, and short billions in coercion to drive through stops?




LOL. yeah that only happens in Gold.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. yeah that only happens in Gold.




Silver too.


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:


> Silver too.




come up with a definition for manipulated and "it" begins to be tradeable....usually, manipulated means dunno-wots-going-on.....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> ....usually, manipulated means dunno-wots-going-on.....




LOL :iagree:

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

I know whats going on. All the leveraged longs are in pain. Very Messy.


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> Joules MM1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ....usually, manipulated means dunno-wots-going-on.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LOL :iagree:
> 
> CanOz
Click to expand...



: +1


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> I know whats going on. All the leveraged longs are in pain. Very Messy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 47033




agree......mucho paino to come....


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Joules MM1 said:


> come up with a definition for manipulated




The Fed leasing it's gold certificates to US investment banks who leverage it up and short billions all at once to slow gold's rise to the top as the one true currency to rule them all.

Pic related, I made it just now


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:
			
		

> The Fed leasing it's gold certificates to US investment banks who leverage it up and short billions all at once to slow gold's rise to the top as the one true currency to rule them all.






riiiight......humour.....i misunderstood you, my bad....... 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=951


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I know whats going on. All the leveraged longs are in pain. Very Messy.




Well yes, if they were the donkeys that bought at 1900 I guess?

For the rest it's just wait for the dip - again ...... for now it's 'un-loved' mode for those with the trading attention span of a cat.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well yes, if they were the donkeys that bought at 1900 I guess?
> 
> For the rest it's just wait for the dip - again ...... for now it's 'un-loved' mode for those with the trading attention span of a cat.




Would think there is a lot to wash out here. Golds probably become too popular, everyone's in and waiting for it to go to $200000000.01


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Gold going to $3,000

http://video.ft.com/v/1628418924001/Gold-going-to-3-000-


----------



## im sparticus

Starcraftmazter said:


> Gold going to $3,000
> 
> http://video.ft.com/v/1628418924001/Gold-going-to-3-000-




The way its looking gold will be below 1000 ( right where it belongs) well before it ever makes 3000 its run out of greater fools with no real return And an actual cost of holding safely erroding your pile its gonna be dumped quicker  than you can say its time to put my money where it can actually do some work.


----------



## skcots

im sparticus said:


> The way its looking gold will be below 1000 ( right where it belongs) well before it ever makes 3000 its run out of greater fools with no real return And an actual cost of holding safely erroding your pile its gonna be dumped quicker  than you can say its time to put my money where it can actually do some work.




Are you trolling or do you actually believe gold is to target $1000. If so, tell us how you came to that conclusion?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

im sparticus said:


> The way its looking gold will be below 1000 ( right where it belongs) well before it ever makes 3000 its run out of greater fools with *no real return* And an actual cost of holding safely erroding your pile its gonna be dumped quicker  than you can say its time to put my money where it can actually do some work.




Haha what - and treasuries do? Come back when you know what you're talking about.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> Haha what - and treasuries do?




If you look here

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/australia/

You can see that they do.

Interbank - CPI YoY in Australia is not negative...


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> If you look here
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/australia/
> 
> You can see that they do.
> 
> Interbank - CPI YoY in Australia is not negative...




I was obviously talking about US treasuries....the short-dated ones with negative real yields.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> I was obviously talking about US treasuries....the short-dated ones with negative real yields.




Obviously! I mean, with this being Aussie Stock Forums and all, how silly of me to assume you were talking about Australian gov credit.

Investors with dollar *obligations* hold those notes you speak of, they have no reason to hold gold. The gold market isn't even liquid enough right now to take those investors.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> Obviously! I mean, with this being Aussie Stock Forums and all, how silly of me to assume you were talking about Australian gov credit.




When you hear the word "treasuries", do you honestly not think of the US first? Given I implied they have no real return, it would not have taken an insurmountable quantity of logic to conclude what I was talking about.



sinner said:


> Investors with dollar *obligations* hold those notes you speak of, they have no reason to hold gold. The gold market isn't even liquid enough right now to take those investors.




I'm sure not everyone has obligations to hold dollar assets, or at least broadly speaking it would be better to say they seek to protect their capital. But clearly gold is the best option for this.

As for liquidity, well that's a matter of perspective. If I had $10 Bn of customer money to protect, I would simply go around buying physical gold from every gold miner in the free world, and if I exhaust them I would buy it from the market. You can do this no matter how much money you have. 

Of course if it is a large sum of money you will drive the price of gold up - but I fail to see how that's a problem for you. Gold is worth much more than it is priced in USD currently.


----------



## im sparticus

Just how much money are you actually trying to protect scm??


----------



## sinner

SCM, clueless as usual about how the market works, what the markets even are, etc. Enjoy.

Difference between an insurance agency or pension fund and other 'investors' still not clear to you? 

Difference between clicking "buy" in the US Treasury Bill market and going around to every gold miner in the free world still not a matter of liquidity?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> SCM, clueless as usual about how the market works, what the markets even are, etc. Enjoy.




That's a great argument, tell me - are you in a professional debating team? You seem to have a lot of experience. I bet you have a lot of debating trophies at home


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> That's a great argument, tell me - are you in a professional debating team? You seem to have a lot of experience. I bet you have a lot of debating trophies at home




Yes yes I wish I could debate like you so that my claims would carry the *force majeure* of yours in the opinions of ASF!


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> Yes yes I wish I could debate like you so that my claims would carry the *force majeure* of yours in the opinions of ASF!




Or you could do so out of common courtesy. Or you could keep your mouth shut if all you want to do is ad hominem. But whatever 

Have fun not holding gold when the financial system collapses.


----------



## im sparticus

Starcraftmazter said:


> Or you could do so out of common courtesy. Or you could keep your mouth shut if all you want to do is ad hominem. But whatever
> 
> Have fun not holding gold when the financial system collapses.




so how much worth are you trying to protect from the financial colapse with gold?

Anyone else think gold will close below 1500 by the end of the week? Hope you didnt by at 1800+ scm thinking it was gonna go unchallanged to 3k looking cheap now time to buy some more on margin right.


----------



## Joules MM1

two female cannibals were eating a male clown, they started at the feet.....after a while one said how ya going and the other said i'm having a ball and the first one said jee you eat fast.....

short .....looking for 1558 for a bounce on this current trounce.......


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> short .....looking for 1558 for a bounce on this current trounce.......




closed at 1560.1 after we hit bid at 59.1 ........got a few in the chop and we'll chop into 68's i think before another attempt make a larger range........no buyers here, i think


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> closed at 1560.1 after we hit bid at 59.1 ........got a few in the chop and we'll chop into 68's i think before another attempt make a larger range........no buyers here, i think




oops, almost pulled a perfect hindsight post  
from managed funds chat room at comsec which i thought i had posted here 


> Joules mm1
> 14/5/2012 12:16:43 PM	STO spot at 1586 stop 1587 downside targets 1566 to 1558


----------



## VeryGreen

Joules MM1 said:


> two female cannibals were eating a male clown, they started at the feet.....after a while one said how ya going and the other said i'm having a ball and the first one said jee you eat fast.....
> 
> short .....looking for 1558 for a bounce on this current trounce.......




I thought the punch line would be "Does this taste funny to you?"


----------



## Joules MM1

VeryGreen said:


> I thought the punch line would be "Does this taste funny to you?"





a-ha ! :cup:

these two elephants walk into a bar followed by a priest, a giraffe and a cross-dressing lip-stick  wearing crocodile ........the barman looks up and sez, this is a joke, right?


----------



## Joules MM1

May 14, 2012, 8:53 A.M. ET

Gold Goes Negative For 2012; Morgan Stanley Stays Bullish

(and yours truly doesnt care  )

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...gative-for-2012-morgan-stanley-stays-bullish/


----------



## Uncle Festivus

As expected, money going to US treasuries............waiting, waiting......

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices climbed Monday, sending  yields on 10-year notes to their lowest level of the year, as renewed  worries about Greece’s political uncertainty encouraged traders to seek  the safety of U.S. government debt.                                   
    Yields on 10-year notes                                                                             10_YEAR                         -3.79%                                                     slumped 7 basis points to 1.782%. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.                                  

*Greek fears grip Europe*

Attempts to form a government in Greece fail again, reigniting  fears the country will be soon be forced out the euro zone. European  stocks and the euro fall sharply. (Photo: AP)                     

    Yields on 10-year notes hadn’t fallen below 1.80% on a closing basis since October, according to data from FactSet Research.


----------



## Edwood

gold on the verge of a fast move here, towards the 1300's - assuming support goes


----------



## im sparticus

Edwood said:


> gold on the verge of a fast move here, towards the 1300's - assuming support goes





news out of euro goes from bad to worse yet gold continues to slide hate to think whats gonna happen when we finally start getting some good news.


----------



## explod

im sparticus said:


> news out of euro goes from bad to worse yet gold continues to slide hate to think whats gonna happen when we finally start getting some good news.




The shakeout in gold is exactly the same as that in 08 just as the Dow began its slide.

Gold then recovered during the falling stock (GFC) market to regain its high during the Dow low in March 09

So when confidence in the markets really falter, only then will gold regain its safe haven status.

However the US$ is the key and the last thing that the Federal Reserve really want is a strong dollar, when they are up to their eyeballs in debt.  And they do not want a strong gold price either; he he, 

so, we do live in most interesting times.


----------



## Logique

Logique said:


> I don't see it breaking below $1600 support, seems quite a strong zone.



Well I'm officially wrong now, $1532 spot price. Shrugging off this loss of face, I'll follow the thoughts of Explod, who, although we don't agree on much else, is demonstrably wiser in matters of gold and silver.


----------



## Edwood

explod said:


> The shakeout in gold is exactly the same as that in 08 just as the Dow began its slide.
> 
> Gold then recovered during the falling stock (GFC) market to regain its high during the Dow low in March 09
> 
> So when confidence in the markets really falter, only then will gold regain its safe haven status.
> 
> However the US$ is the key and the last thing that the Federal Reserve really want is a strong dollar, when they are up to their eyeballs in debt.  And they do not want a strong gold price either; he he,
> 
> so, we do live in most interesting times.




I think Euro is the key not DXY - if EUR breaks up & Germany has to go back to DMs or similar, everyone will be buying DMs - they're by far the strongest country in Europe and probably quite glad to have Greece etc holding everything back at the moment.  DM's will rocket once standalone, and gold will too.  Could get messy for longs before then


----------



## Joules MM1

i need ein contrarian signal, das capitan


:fan

we might get a small surfacing today, getting _*above*_ the waterline is a big ask

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=954


----------



## So_Cynical

Edwood said:


> gold on the verge of a fast move here, towards the 1300's - assuming support goes




Or a fast move the other way...every time there has been a flight to US Treasury notes over the last 4 years...a gold rally has followed.


----------



## CanOz

So_Cynical said:


> Or a fast move the other way...every time there has been a flight to US Treasury notes over the last 4 years...a gold rally has followed.




    Must be getting close to a rally, i heard some muppet :karaoken the Bloomy getting super bearish on gold, LOL.

    CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

opines from the around the globe



> JUNE #GOLD 1600 calls $240 , the last 2 times the price was down here within a few days we were above $1600.




https://twitter.com/#!/Rilczyszyn/status/202757563551461376/photo/1

chart :


----------



## Joules MM1

Gold Takes It On the Chin…What’s Next?

May 9, 2012



> Facts don’t thwart the short-term pain, yet as contrarian investor Baron Rothschild said, “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” Here are five reasons we believe today’s sell-off sets up a buying opportunity for gold:......




http://www.usfunds.com/investor-res...-on-the-chin-whats-next/#.T7PiRho17qA.twitter

excerpt


----------



## Joules MM1

radio interview with Sean Brodrick on gold and miners 

he's a top trader too

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/05/bear-market-for-gold/

listen for the BHP comments from a US pov


----------



## Joules MM1

and this ones got lots of nice charts ......

http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2012/05/15/throwing-the-kitchen-sink-at-mark-twains-liars/

By chessNwine – Tue May 15, 2012 8:38pm

excerpt:



> GLD – I pointed out a few weeks ago that the bullish inverse head and shoulders setup looked vulnerable on the weekly timeframe. If broken, ti would be a very bearish development. In fact, we have seen just that, as the yellow metal looks to have broken below a massive descending triangle. The only way I would go long for a swing trade is if you have conviction that this breakdown is a false one. Otherwise, I would avoid the long side altogether.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

CanOz said:


> Must be getting close to a rally, i heard some muppet :karaoken the Bloomy getting super bearish on gold, LOL.
> 
> CanOz




My thoughts exactly.


----------



## zac

I think its still too early to tell.
ECB has said they wont print more money, US economy is certainly improving yet being over shadowed by the Greece crisis.

I think it will depend on market sentiment as to how they feel the Euro crisis is going to be handled.
I must admit, im surprised to see gold go positive tonight where as US Indices are still going down.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

zac said:


> ECB has said they wont print more money




Have they? Last I heard, Germany is willing to put up with higher inflation (shock, horror).

That to me is a cue to the ECB that they should print more - from the biggest opposer to such actions in previous time.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Also not sure why, but gold just went through the roof at 12:03 Sydney time.

I guess it could have been a combination of some Fed board members saying easing is on the table if recovery slows and bad US data released at 12?


----------



## CanOz

Starcraftmazter said:


> Also not sure why, but gold just went through the roof at 12:03 Sydney time.
> 
> I guess it could have been a combination of some Fed board members saying easing is on the table if recovery slows and bad US data released at 12?




Yup, poor leading indicators....the market thinks easing is back on the table for sure. EUR went with it.

CanOz


----------



## numbercruncher

zac said:


> ECB has said they wont print more money




:chimney


Haha thats kinda like a Heroin addict sitting in a opium field saying he wont touch the pretty round bulbs ...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Must be getting close to a rally, i heard some muppet :karaoken the Bloomy getting super bearish on gold, LOL.
> 
> CanOz




Can, well done......looks like youve unearthed the Numpty Bloomers Contrarian Signal
could code that? ......NBCS


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm not sure why any of this comes as a surprise - the demise of fiat currencies has been discussed on this thread for several years. If you were a Greek or Spaniard right now would you be trusting what you had in fiat 'wealth' would be there when you woke in the morning?
So what do you exchange your Euro's for?

So we have seen the start of the bank run contagion stage, the harbinger of the demise of the Euro. So while those in the UK & the US sit back & pontificate on what should be done and how much better off they are, on any measure they are in a similar or worse position  - it's just that they have the luxury of being able to post pone the inevitable austerity measures that they too must undertake to reduce debt.

I had my first foray for several years back into shares on Wednesday - bought some NCM. By any measure gold miners have been oversold relative to just about anything else and probably have the most upside out of this, even more than gold?

We'll probably get QE4 but will probably have even less effect this time.....

It's  going to get violent from here so hang on for the ride......


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, with the poor leading indicators, the market now expects QE3....that's inflationary so gold rises. Now any data that is weak will put gold up. Data supporting a recovery will drop...nothing has changed really, just the risk appetite.

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Op Twist =QE3?


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Op Twist =QE3?




I thought QE3 was the fed buying more distressed assets?


----------



## notting

Glad I've being buying alot of Gold stocks over the last few days, however, I'm a tad nervous that it's just a short covering bounce.


----------



## Joules MM1

in the nearterm



> julian ct ‏@joulesmm1
> 
> golds bounce all but done me thinks......1598 crucial level to hold for shorts.....my shorts anyhoo




:karate:


----------



## Logique

But wait, don't lower your glasses...



> http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120518JW_pm.html
> [P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup]
> 
> ..Gold produced a bullish weekly high close on Friday, which is an early technical clue that a near-term market bottom is in place for the yellow metal. June gold last traded up $14.90 at $1,589.80 an ounce...


----------



## explod

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Looks like a reversal.

Need to type over $GOLD then enter for the weekly chart in question.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
> 
> Looks like a reversal.
> 
> Need to type over $GOLD then enter for the weekly chart in question.




Maybe Explod. Certainly at a critical point thats for sure.


----------



## CanOz

Nice COT indicator there TH! I see the commercials look to be starting to unwind their shorts?

CanOz


----------



## aclassic

Hi,
Uncle Festivus - "So what do you exchange your Euro's for?"
Great question
Answer = USD
What do you make of our recent phenominum of the USD being called the "safe haven", the idea seems to have caught on.

he he.https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/icons/icon4.gif


----------



## Uncle Festivus

aclassic said:


> Hi,
> Uncle Festivus - "So what do you exchange your Euro's for?"
> Great question
> Answer = USD
> What do you make of our recent phenominum of the USD being called the "safe haven", the idea seems to have caught on.
> 
> he he.https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/icons/icon4.gif




It's all about relative 'safeness' at any point in time, doesn't mean the USD is 'safe', as on most measures the USA is only barely better than the basket case countries the market is having a spew about now. 

It's all about contagion too, as doubt feeds doubt which feeds a negative feed-back loop which rather upsets the paper money ponzi somewhat.

Keep watching China for the real black swan from left field........

Although with Lava Girls' mates getting hammered there might actually be real price discovery with PM's now (sound of crickets.....) sorry, having a dream sequence there


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> If you think that's not much check this out, seven weeks with almost no marginal supply or demand.







That's some nice momentum over the last two days, I guess that makes 1620-1625 pretty important short-term.


----------



## aclassic

Uncle Festivus said:


> Although with Lava Girls' mates getting hammered there might actually be real price discovery with PM's now (sound of crickets.....) sorry, having a dream sequence there




Hey Man, I must have been livin under a rather large rock - ya lost me, have I been missin out on somthin good?
I Googled lava girl -  he he he
cheers


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Nice COT indicator there TH! I see the commercials look to be starting to unwind their shorts?
> 
> CanOz





i'm still short since last weeks high ......

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=956

did notice weekly bar as TH pointed out but it just hasnt/didnt gett he same accum signals i would expect.......so i'm hanging on for a final leg down as silver is probably the key signal in its make-up

i suspect i'm about to be satisfied or a visit to the proctologist is in order


----------



## Joules MM1

Peter Brimelow Archives | Email alerts

May 21, 2012, 1:27 a.m. EDT
Gold bushwhacks bears
Commentary: Is a central bank buying?


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-bushwhacks-bears-2012-05-21



> When MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold hit 51% on Wednesday, it was at the lowest except for one day — 49% on Nov. 13, 2008 — for many years.






> The far-sighted Australian bullion commentary The Privateer thinks something really significant has happened.
> 
> This weekend it observed: “What is interesting about the snap-back this week — in both the physical and paper forms of gold, including gold stocks — is that gold has once again started to rise, while other asset markets (especially stock markets) are still falling.”
> 
> Another positive voice, from an unusual source, is veteran gold analyst Frank Veneroso. ......


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> i'm still short since last weeks high ......
> 
> 
> 
> i suspect i'm about to be satisfied or a visit to the proctologist is in order




ring ring

hello

yeah, i think i need to make an appointment


----------



## Joules MM1

China, central banks and ETFs underpin demand for gold
17 May, 2012

http://www.gold.org/media/press_rel...tral_banks_and_etfs_underpin_demand_for_gold/


----------



## Joules MM1

Silver and shorting

Bill Murphy of GATA and LeMetropoleCafe, Rare Sunday Commentary 
"CFTC may be Forced to Do Something soon about the Silver Shorts." 

http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/bill-murphy-of-gata-and-lemetropolecafe.html

excerpt



> This latest investigation into JP Morgan might be a big deal for the GATA camp. This is actually quite complicated, but very intriguing. The CFTC has been investigating JPM’s role in the silver market manipulation scheme for what will be four years soon. FOUR YEARS! Good friends, like Dave from Denver, have nothing but loathsome talk about the CFTC, for good reason. GATA’s rationale (speaking for myself) about this ridiculous investigation is that the CFTC really has uncovered the scam, but because it is backed by the US Government, they are flabbergasted about what to do, so they do nothing.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

aclassic said:


> Hey Man, I must have been livin under a rather large rock - ya lost me, have I been missin out on somthin good?
> I Googled lava girl -  he he he
> cheers




Lava Girl - Blythe Masters is the chief of commodity trading at JPM, and the  apparent mastermind behind their gargantuan short position in silver, see Joules post above about CFTC......


----------



## mr. jeff

notting said:


> Glad I've being buying alot of Gold stocks over the last few days, however, I'm a tad nervous that it's just a short covering bounce.




What are you buying, I'm looking.

list them-

IGR, TRY, NST, GRY, NCM, AQG, EVN that's what I'm thinking has promise.

I've thought about TAM, DRM, AZM, AZH, RMS, SAR, MYG, PXG, PIR, LSA and found nothing at the moment worth taking on relative to above list. Don't say RED.

Thoughts ?


----------



## notting

mr. jeff said:


> What are you buying, I'm looking.



I baught NCM,TRY,SLR,NST.
Took some semi profits yesterday to give me room for the possibility of greater weekness.
TRY is the one I value the most and oddly performed the worst in this bounce, though it had not tanked as aggresively just recently.
I also had a short on RSG which paid, that was more of a technical hedge.


----------



## Joules MM1

covered gold short at 82's looks to me like we're headed to at least test 1602's

India going to default on loans.......

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-india-devaluation-idUSBRE84L0N920120522


----------



## Joules MM1

Swiss talking Gold Franc ?

Swiss Parliament Examines ‘Gold Franc’ Currency Today

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-parliament-examines-‘gold-franc’-currency-today



> A panel of the Swiss parliament is discussing the introduction of the parallel ‘Gold franc’ currency.
> 
> Bloomberg has picked up on the news which was reported by Neue Luzerner Zeitung.
> 
> The Swiss parliament panel will discuss a proposal aimed at introducing a new currency, or a so-called gold franc.
> 
> Under the proposal, which will be debated in the lower house’s economic panel in Bern today, one coin in gold would be worth about 5 Swiss francs ($5.30), the Swiss newspaper reported. The Swiss franc would remain the official currency, the paper said.
> 
> The proposal may lead to a wider debate about the Swiss franc and the role gold might again play to protect the Swiss franc from currency debasement.


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> Swiss talking Gold Franc ?
> 
> Swiss Parliament Examines ‘Gold Franc’ Currency Today
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-parliament-examines-‘gold-franc’-currency-today




FFFF F me!

The end of fiat is one step closer!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

ah.......nadjers.........resold 78's


----------



## Uncle Festivus

FWIW, I don't think this is _the_ bounce - yet. Things still have to get so dire that the USD is the only game in town, that is when gold will be at it's lowest and the time to buy? So, looking to accumulate gold miners all the way down, mostly NCM......under $24.....

As well, Lava Girl and co will try to test the technical support level at $1500, again, to break the will of gold bulls. They are still in charge, despite what is happening.....

I thought the Franc was a defacto gold currency already??


----------



## aclassic

Uncle Festivus,

Thanks for the drum re Lava Girl.

Some of us are a bit slow hey 

cheers.


----------



## Joules MM1

1577 revisit looks like a south paw effort.....aided by covering


----------



## Joules MM1

China's ICBC has big dreams for bullion business
Mon May 28, 2012 4:53pm GMT
 By Fayen Wong

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL4E8GS2OW20120528

excerpt



> SHANGHAI May 28 (Reuters) - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is seeking membership of overseas exchanges and aims to become a major global bullion market maker, a senior executive said on Monday.


----------



## Joules MM1

And the Currency Wars Heat Up
Peter Pham

http://www.alphavn.com/2012/05/27/and-the-currency-wars-heat-up/

excerpt


> The Three Signs
> 
> The CME Group was involved in three major announcements this week, individually they mean very little but in conjunction say a lot:
> 
> The margin requirements for Gold and Crude Oil contracts were cut by 13% and 10% respectively.
> They announced a 5 for 1 stock split and extended grain trading hours.
> Both CME and Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) were designated as systemic by the U.S. Dept. of the Treasury


----------



## Trembling Hand

> The margin requirements for Gold and Crude Oil contracts were cut by 13% and 10% respectively.




Joules every time the exchange lifts margin rates with an uptending contract the friggin nut bag gold bugs scream conspiracy. Even though the SPAN margin specs are there for all to see. 

So what are the tin hat nutters going to say now that margin is going down? No comment I bet.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Clearly JPM and Goldman Sachs need lower margin so they can short more.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Clearly JPM and Goldman Sachs need lower margin so they can short more.




Clearly you *again *have shown you do not know about market mechanics - even the basics!


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Joules every time the exchange lifts margin rates with an uptending contract the friggin nut bag gold bugs scream conspiracy. Even though the SPAN margin specs are there for all to see.
> 
> So what are the tin hat nutters going to say now that margin is going down? No comment I bet.




yep,  came across a brilliantly written blog today on the eleven thousand contracts dumped (which i happen to have some of, skiing, thankyou!).....the main point was why doesnt the cftc or such like investigate.....all i could think was, it's just a friggin trade.....so what if the guys a disappointed bull......who cares.....

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...+JessesCafeAmericain+(Jesse's+Café+Américain)


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:


> Clearly JPM and Goldman Sachs need lower margin so they can short more.




that's dumb logic

.......it's a level playing field......know one other than the exchange gets to gain from the drop in margin, lower margin more participants..........the little guy cant compete anyways ......


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> Clearly you *again *have shown you do not know about market mechanics - even the basics!




Haha what, prove me wrong - lower margin requirements mean JPM and Goldman Sachs can take bigger positions.


*Why Gold has been in a downtrend, and why it will reverse soon* - From the best Econ show on the planet.

[video]www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXGFSd8PfYU[/video]

Central banks, investment banks, governments - all trying to keep gold down, and all failing. Gold will prevail, hard money will rule the world!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Haha what, prove me wrong - lower margin requirements mean JPM and Goldman Sachs can take bigger positions.




Clueless as usual. Instos don't trade on min margin. But what would you know. You're not even a retail trader.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> Clueless as usual. *Instos don't trade on min margin*. But what would you know. You're not even a retail trader.




Haha what? The big investment banks will do everything in their power to bring down gold.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Haha what? The big investment banks will do everything in their power to bring down gold.




So now you are showing, AGAIN, that you do not understand margin. Add another one to the list that SCM is an expert on yet knows nothing. And lacks logic to his argument.


----------



## CanOz

Starcraftmazter said:


> Haha what? The big investment banks will do everything in their power to bring down gold.




LOL, there it is again...the patented _SCM deflection_...


Watching with interest....corn:


CanOz


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> So now you are showing, AGAIN, that you do not understand margin. Add another one to the list that SCM is an expert on yet knows nothing. And lacks logic to his argument.




Lower margin requirements mean they will be able to take higher positions. Say it isn't so.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Lower margin requirements mean they will be able to take higher positions. Say it isn't so.




Absolutely incorrect.

Only idiots who don't trade thing margin effects position size.

LOL DUMB!!


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> Lower margin requirements mean they will be able to take higher positions. Say it isn't so.




*It isn't so.*

Let's assume the book for GC which JPM is running is ~1billion, and according to you they're net short. Let's assume they're net short for 100 million and dying for a reduction in margin so they can use that collateral to add to shorts.

Margin reduction of 13% means at most they can reduce their posted collateral by 130 million. 

i.e. *who cares*.


----------



## skc

Starcraftmazter said:


> Lower margin requirements mean they will be able to take higher positions. Say it isn't so.




So can the longs?

Or did they only lower margin for shorts?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> Margin reduction of 13% means at most they can reduce their posted collateral by 130 million.




Meaning they can take further positions with the same capital.



skc said:


> So can the longs?
> 
> Or did they only lower margin for shorts?




Does the cartel take long positions? I think not. They manipulation is purely to the downside.


----------



## Trembling Hand

This boy aint too smart. Simple concept, no ability to understand. :silly:


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:


> Meaning they can take further positions with the same capital.
> 
> 
> 
> Does the cartel take long positions? I think not. They manipulation is purely to the downside.




what's the benefit, that exists in your head? 

if a price could be shorted to zero, ya get zero, that's the best you can get.....wouldnt there be greater advantage in pushing an exponential growth vehicle such as gold, which, is easier to force short covering and force yield models to decline to get the very cheap yield those models offer?

what's the contra trade that exists in your head......i mean, actual realisable profit?


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> Meaning they can take further positions with the same capital.




Yeah, obviously you have no idea about volume and turnover in the gold market.

The reduction in margin, along with the stupid assumption that they would margin this extra collateral to the gills on new positions, is still a tiny portion of daily turnover on the LBMA.

So 

WHO CARES

I thought you were a physical gold buyer anyway? Personally I don't complain about lower prices when I visit my bullion dealer.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Joules MM1 said:


> what's the benefit, that exists in your head?
> 
> what's the contra trade that exists in your head......i mean, actual realisable profit?




It's not about profit, it's about trying to suck the juice out of the Fed's money printing machine, about trying to slow gold's inevitable rise as the true reserve currency of the world.

They don't need to make profit, they have the power to print infinite USD - the only thing they need to do is to keep gold off USD's back.



sinner said:


> I thought you were a physical gold buyer anyway? Personally I don't complain about lower prices when I visit my bullion dealer.




If I was to buy gold, I would never buy paper and always physical indeed. I am not complaining, I merely answered another poster's question of what people who allege that the lifting of margin requirements has been bad for gold would say about this lowering of the margin requirements.



I'll also note that gold has now fallen quite a bit since the margin requirements were lowered. Coincidence? I think not! This basically proves my point.


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:


> It's ...to slow gold's inevitable rise as the true reserve currency of the world.




the true reserve currency is the one we're using, it's the most recent technology in use as opposed to the old technology, gold, which is not in use...........gold is a liquidity vehicle, understand that simple concept and you'll be fine......hard to be angsty about that, eh.......pfffft.....unless, of course, youre just bad at the game then any ruse will do.......



Starcraftmazter said:


> They don't need to make profit......




duh.......yeah......all those big boys do is sit around swinging golf clubs and smoking havanas.....make money? wot for.......don't ya know golf clubs are edible


----------



## Joules MM1

Starcraftmazter said:


> I'll also note that gold has now fallen quite a bit since the margin requirements were lowered. Coincidence? I think not! This basically proves my point.




first there's the opportunity to roll or adjust front month contracts....what's the date today?......secondly, if you look at my blog you'll notice what a chart watcher notices.....it's in a nearterm downtrend, dummy and has been since when?

are *YOU* going to trade the thing or postulate all day......i know, send out some analysed and free samples of your indepth inadequacies.....that should placate your sense of indifference to how an auction could benefit you


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> I'll also note that gold has now fallen quite a bit since the margin requirements were lowered. Coincidence? I think not! This basically proves my point.




It's funny because you think COMEX futures and the associated minimum margin of their contracts set the price of gold in an LBMA world.

It's almost as funny as the time you tried to convince everyone that AAPL paying a dividend would 'distort' the entire market and drag it higher.


----------



## Joules MM1

in my humble experience, the most vocal for interference are usually the worst timers

_reductio ad absurdum_ (that's eskimo for you're a numpty) 

_youre a numpty_ (that's scottish for you're a numpty)


----------



## Joules MM1

busy busy

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=961


----------



## Logique

Gold back above $1600 overnight. Quite something to have the USD Index and gold price both with bullish medium term TA setups.

German DAX down 3.2% in the session, you don't see that every day.


----------



## notting

Logique said:


> Gold back above $1600 overnight. Quite something to have the USD Index and gold price both with bullish medium term TA setups.




That theme has been playing out for a few weeks now.  Gold really should have been going lower against the US considering the US strength against Euro.  Gold has been extremely well supported in the last couple of weeks in light of this, you could almost call it a hidden up trend that looks to now be breaking out.  
Everything else is just a total mess.

I guess the risk is the weekness of the Indian Rupee - genuine, as apposed to speculative, demand weekness.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I guess that as sheeple become more disillusioned with the elected establishment to maintain their lifestyles and lose faith that even their cash will be safe, that not even the USD counter-trade of relative 'safeness' will be enough to hold back the tide to gold ie people now have only 2 choices - gold or USD's?

As the fundamentals speak for themselves, only the ignorant (Buffet club?) or uninformed (Ma & Pa investors) will still choose USD's.......

Resigning myself to the fact that we may not see a sub $1500 handle gold price if the cliff arrives early........at least it's very well supported at that level so far....?? 

Supply & demand - so little to go around at crunchtime? 

The pump & dump recovery is finished!


   Non-Farm Employment Change69K
151K   77K   Unemployment Rate8.20%
8.10%8.10%   Average Hourly Earnings m/m0.10%0.20%   0.10%   Core PCE Price Index m/m0.10%0.20%0.20%   Personal Spending m/m0.30%0.30%   0.20%   Personal Income m/m0.20%0.40%0.40%   Final Manufacturing PMI5453.9   ISM Manufacturing PMI53.5
5454.8   Construction Spending m/m0.30%0.40%   0.30%   ISM Manufacturing Prices47.557.161   Total Vehicle Sales13.8M14.4M14.4M


----------



## Starcraftmazter

3.71% baby, you don't see that every day! 

The cartel must be losing it's grip.


----------



## CanOz

Forget QE3, its already getting priced in as a given...They're already talking QE4!!

CanOz


----------



## Auslad

It appears that the market last night rang the bell and called a bottom on both the daily an weekly charts of physical gold, futures and Gold ETF.

This next leg up should be astronomical due to the global financial system itself being on its last legs, although many still refuse to believe realities and put their heads in the sand.

Right now we have bank runs in Europe which are happening in Greece and Spain. We shpould expect over the next few days/weeks for that to spread to Italy, France Holland then the UK and finally Germany.There is also numerous reports coming out of China of Bank runs in its Provinces.  Also the google search term for "bank runs" is at an all time high even bigger than the enquiries in 2008.

It is most likely in the current world climate that we should expect to see days where the Dow falls more than 1000 points at a time over the next few weeks due to both economic and geo political events including major military action in various parts of the world which may involve the use of nuclear weapons.

With times like these, investors will increasingly therefore turn to the only safe haven that is left and that is gold.


----------



## CanOz

Auslad said:


> It appears that the market last night rang the bell and called a bottom on both the daily an weekly charts of physical gold, futures and Gold ETF.
> 
> This next leg up should be astronomical due to the global financial system itself being on its last legs, although many still refuse to believe realities and put their heads in the sand.
> 
> Right now we have bank runs in Europe which are happening in Greece and Spain. We shpould expect over the next few days/weeks for that to spread to Italy, France Holland then the UK and finally Germany.There is also numerous reports coming out of China of Bank runs in its Provinces.  Also the google search term for "bank runs" is at an all time high even bigger than the enquiries in 2008.
> 
> It is most likely in the current world climate that we should expect to see days where the Dow falls more than 1000 points at a time over the next few weeks due to both economic and geo political events including major military action in various parts of the world which may involve the use of nuclear weapons.
> 
> With times like these, investors will increasingly therefore turn to the only safe haven that is left and that is gold.




Its this kind of doom and gloom that makes me think to take of my bear suit and change into the bull suit...

CanOz


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Its this kind of doom and gloom that makes me think to take of my bear suit and change into the bull suit...




Wooo Mare!
Wait till all the pro analysts are saying it in unison.
S&P has only just gone below it's 200 day.
The short fun has just begun even though it's already paid!


----------



## young-gun

CanOz said:


> Its this kind of doom and gloom that makes me think to take of my bear suit and change into the bull suit...
> 
> CanOz




hmm...I was actually looking at getting an even bigger bear suit my current, im not sure I will find one big enough that will do the current economic climate justice. 

Gold is looking good. Up and away by the end of year i'd say.


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Well numbercruncher, your pain has been relieved, in fact have a rest and stop pushing, you have AUD gold at $905 this morning.   I think that's $100 in the last month or so.   May be wrong about any correction, we have tremendous momentum now.




above posted 9th November 2007.

Aussie gold up more than $60 friday/sat, the moves are bigger these days.

Big drop in our dollar of course but $US index the one to watch this week.  The recent pump in rhetoric could implode the index a long way this time.  Of course the rise in gold only reflects the fall of all currencies in effect.  So its just that great means to *save* your money.  Where's Uncle Ben Banker?

But we shall see, back to sleep.


----------



## sinner

Since we all learned this month from SCM that CME rules the world and COMEX sets the global price of gold I thought I'd interrupt the regular transmission for a different chart.

I present, the 
*Starcraftmazer Annotated GCM12 Chart (SCMAGCM12C on your Bloomberg) *



...

and we now return you to your regular transmission:


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> Since we all learned this month from SCM that CME rules the world and COMEX sets the global price of gold I thought I'd interrupt the regular transmission for a different chart.




I don't see how they are related; the recent gold rise was as a result of poor economic data, not lowered margin requirements.

Though come to think of it, the timing is awfully coincidental


----------



## numbercruncher

explod said:


> above posted 9th November 2007.
> 
> Aussie gold up more than $60 friday/sat, the moves are bigger these days.
> 
> Big drop in our dollar of course but $US index the one to watch this week.  The recent pump in rhetoric could implode the index a long way this time.  Of course the rise in gold only reflects the fall of all currencies in effect.  So its just that great means to *save* your money.  Where's Uncle Ben Banker?
> 
> But we shall see, back to sleep.




Haha well dug up explod 

We could always trust the shiny stuff .....


----------



## numbercruncher

No link but you can google this ....



> The Game-Changer
> 
> The Basel Committee of Bank supervision, who dream up the rules that govern banks, are looking at turning gold into a 'Tier One' asset.
> 
> This means the banks can carry gold as capital at 100% of its market value - instead of the current 50%.
> 
> This gives gold a huge increase in status, and effectively turns it back into money at the top level. It would also give the banks a strong reason to hold gold.
> 
> Consider that banks hold around $5 TRILLION in Tier One capital today.
> 
> *Just 2.4% of this capital would absorb the ENTIRE annual output of annual gold mine production.*


----------



## Starcraftmazter

numbercruncher said:


> No link but you can google this ....




It's about time. It is a disgrace it has been at 50% - in reality, gold and silver are the only things that should even be allowed as tier 1 capital, since all else is completely worthless.

Gold to hit $2000 before end of year.


----------



## Joules MM1

Durden:


> The Hoarding Continues: China Purchases A Record 100 Tons Of Gold In April From Hong Kong




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hoard...urchases-record-100-tons-gold-april-hong-kong


----------



## Mr Z

Anyone up for bottom picking?

Was it in @ ~1525?

Or is it ~ 1375 as the cycles guys have it?

I don't think we are done yet ... key events and the chart suggest ~1400 by the end of July to me.

Current thinking is we get a boost from a Euro bailout then we look for or confirm the bottom after Ben *FAILS* to deliver QE3 in June. I think QE3 will be a goer at the August FOMC, when they are *REALLY* bleating for it IMO. The USDX still looks to have legs.... if the above is true we could see USDX 88/9.... and a monthly close below ~ 84.5 would be as pretty as a picture IMO.

I hope we all have dry powder for the gold stock capitulation! I don't think we have seen it yet... 

We are setting up for one almighty rally in gold shares... these things are close to wrung dry!

Hi ya peeps!


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Mr Z said:


> Current thinking is we get a boost from a Euro bailout then we look for or confirm the bottom after Ben *FAILS* to deliver QE3 in June. I think QE3 will be a goer at the August FOMC, when they are *REALLY* bleating for it IMO. The USDX still looks to have legs.... if the above is true we could see USDX 88/9.... and a monthly close below ~ 84.5 would be as pretty as a picture IMO.




I don't disagree, one month of bad figures and everyone thinks QE3 is around the corner. I think it will happen later in the year than MSM/market expects.

It begs the question of what exactly is going to happen with gold meanwhile in the short/medium term - whether it will continue in this holding pattern until more bad data in July or whether it will have a short-term top and go down a bit before the final epic rally of the year.


----------



## explod

Gold is near to breaking out of a long pennant and nearing the next leg up.

The Greece bond problem (there's going to be a domino effect on others from there) by the looks will take it into that breakout to the next leg up soon IMV

We can expect that run on previous breakouts since 2001 to touch the US$2,300 area.

Loaded with NCM and NST Monday.  In fact, because we have no sovereign risk NCM would have to be the safest goldie world wide in my view.

But gold in the hand is the tops.

Back to sleep.


----------



## Mr Z

$64 Q is how much Urope-peeing money wants gold 

I suspect it will give us a bump but not legs.... 

USDX and Gold may sync up for a little bit (started already?)

If Ben disappointments that should stop it.

That gives us a window for a low 20/6 to 1/8... basically July sometime.

Numbers anyone?

Besides too many rabid goldbugs are calling a bottom... they are never good timers! Hell even GATA has published an article saying as much! LOL... now you watch two negatives make a positive, the bugs will win one now I have said that!

~1525 is it for now... until we prove otherwise... colour me skeptical.

Vat a verld! Yikes....


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> ~1525 is it for now... until we prove otherwise... colour me skeptical.




Same, I hear Asian Central Banks had bids in the interbank around $1525 last week and the week before that. Until someone offers $1524 I'd say those bids are supporting the market whether they get filled or not.


----------



## Mr Z

Yes... flows to China are up... and from for that matter.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Yes... flows to China are up... and from for that matter.




Not to sure about that, took in 900 tons last month and kept their own production.

Nice little rise toward the break on tonight.


----------



## Mr Z

When will you learn to "trust me"?

_Hong Kong-China gold flow jumps 62% in April

 SINGAPORE: Hong Kong’s gold shipments to mainland China in April jumped 62 percent to the second-highest level on record, *while gold flow from China increased to an unprecedented level,* official Hong Kong trade data showed on Monday. Hong Kong shipped out 101,768 kg of gold to mainland China in April, *and received 34,368 kg from China,* which brings the net exports to 67,400 kg, a surge of 77 percent on the month, according to the data 

posted on the website of the government agency. (www.censtatd.gov.hk) Last November, a record 102,525 kg of gold arrived in China from Hong Kong, a gold trading hub and a main conduit for gold flow into China. Spot gold hit a record high of $1,920.30 last September, and prices then stabilised in March and April. “It could partly be caused by the levelling of volatility,” said Nick Trevethan, senior metals strategist at ANZ in 

Singapore. “The first quarter looked to start strongly and it did, which might have encouraged people to book materials in response to a more stable price environment.” Several market participants recalled slow business in the physical market in April, and were unable to comment on why both gold imports and exports rose so strongly in the month. In the 

first four months of the year, Hong Kong sent a total of 237,287 kg of gold to China, and received 70,688 kg from the mainland. On an annualised basis, net gold exports to China could reach nearly 500 tonnes in 2012, compared with last year’s 380 tonnes, according to Reuters calculations. China has overtaken India as the world’s top gold consumer in the past two quarters, with consumer gold demand in the first quarter of 2012 hitting a record high of 255.2 tonnes, said the World Gold Council. China does not publish gold trade data. China has not announced any change in its 

official gold holdings in more than four years, although speculation that Beijing has been quietly accumulating gold has helped support gold prices. Gold slightly on Monday as losses on the wider financial markets prompted some selling after the metal’s biggest one-day price rise in over three years, but was supported by speculation the Federal Reserve could unveil a new round of monetary easing. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,621.64 an ounce at 1121 GMT. reuters_


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## explod

Mr Z said:


> When will you learn to "trust me"?




Thanks for posting that up.

But, have learnt to not trust anyone.

From my watching of the gold price in particular over the last ten years I reckon the bottom is in and the next burst up is nearly on us.


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## Logique

Mr Z said:


> ....key events and the chart suggest ~1400 by the end of July to me....



Will be interesting to watch, but I think 2000 more likely than 1400. Anyone know how to do polls.


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## Mr Z

Why is the bottom in?


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## Mr Z

Logique said:


> Will be interesting to watch, but I think 2000 more likely than 1400. Anyone know how to do polls.




You have to start a new thread....

What 2000, in July?


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## explod

Mr Z said:


> Why is the bottom in?




The low towards US$1530 has been tested three times since October last year and that level is now strong support technically speaking.  We are close to a breakout of the pennant typical of gold over the last 10 years.

Fundamentally there is fear on the markets behaviour and the only thing apart from some minor other sectors are the rise of gold stocks after a severe washout south.   Investors in gold stocks know the signs and when to go long.

A drop from here is most unlikely in my view, and I am often wrong.  If things continue to turn more ugly with Spain there will be more stress on the European Union and also the US who are now also throwing in money to try and hold them all together.  And remember the US money itself is merely debt paper.  So may be ugly but not for gold in my view.

US$2000 by August, entirely reasonable.


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## Mr Z




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## Mr Z

Bernanke Steps on Gold Bugs


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## explod

http://www.gata.org/node/11456

Big securement's of physical gold during the takedown, and unreported

515 tons in four hours.


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## Starcraftmazter

explod said:


> http://www.gata.org/node/11456
> 
> Big securement's of physical gold during the takedown, and unreported
> 
> 515 tons in four hours.




Riveting stuff, I wonder if the cartel's shorts got squeezed or if they are unable to deliver the physical. Would be hilarious.


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## explod

Starcraftmazter said:


> Riveting stuff, I wonder if the cartel's shorts got squeezed or if they are unable to deliver the physical. Would be hilarious.




And when the physical for delivery runs out completely.

Total default and war I suppose.


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## Mr Z

Guys, this would be LBMA OTC stuff, if the gold was sold for physical delivery it would be there, it settles T+2 so there is no room to mess around. OTC both parties expect to complete the deal, only where the client is holding metal unallocated with an LBMA member can the famed 100:1 leverage be employed,  otherwise it is a physical market. It's just not likely that we see a default unless someone wades into the Comex, which is not a market designed for physical delivery (it is meant to be a paper market for hedging activity) and demands a large delivery. Should that be the case they will simply use the rules to force cash settlement. You are never likely to see a Comex default despite the goldbug hype.

What you will see if there is ANY pressure on delivery is rising price, which is what we want... eh?

Gold will not run out... the price will adjust... that is a market!


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## Mr Z

BTW it was a very constructive closing number this week, if we can get past whatever the Spanish Euronut announcements are on the 10th, assuming they happen, then we are looking good. However expect that to be USD positive and expect the short sellers to have another go at gold next week. It is not all bad... I suspect that will take us to the final bottom in short order, time is running down. For now evidence is building that the ~1525 area is the low, supported by recent action BUT we still have upside work to do to prove that and we have failed at the first hurdle every time so far.


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## explod

Mr Z said:


> Gold will not run out... the price will adjust... that is a market!




(Talking physical gold now), why not ?


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## Mr Z

To run out of gold is to suggest that there is no price at which it can be obtained. Clearly there will always be a price for gold, the market will always clear the only thing to be determined is at what price. Price will always seek balance supply and demand therefore we will not run out. That price may be 5k oz, it maybe 1k or 50k but it will be obtainable if you meet the market.

If there was not a price at which you could obtain gold then gold will have effectively ceased to function as money, that is to say it would not be traded and would have no determinable value (by whatever measure you choose to value it). If you believe this to be the case then why hold gold? You will never trade it for anything and it will never be of value to you. But that is not the case is it? I will always be able to name a price at which you (or someone else maybe ) will part with your gold. Therefore we will never run out... unless we some how use or lose all of it, or aliens steal it!

Markets clear.... they balance supply and demand at a price. The question should be why would you think that will not apply to gold? I for one simply want to see the price rise in an orderly fashion to a price that I can take advantage of. Defaults, broken markets that soar in price then collapse before you can take advantage of them, because that is what would happen in a default, are a goldbug fantasy just like some permanently high plateau price for gold. It can't work that way and never will! Price will float to balance supply and demand.  With orderly markets that you can actually trade on being very desirable come the time YOU want or need to sell... goldbugs are nuts with this stuff... if they ever get what they want you will need big gun more than you will need gold.


----------



## Smurf1976

Mr Z said:


> If there was not a price at which you could obtain gold then gold will have effectively ceased to function as money, that is to say it would not be traded and would have no determinable value (by whatever measure you choose to value it). If you believe this to be the case then why hold gold?



It depends on how you define "price".

It is likely that you will always be able to exchange gold for, say, a loaf of bread or a barrel of oil. At least you will as long as someone is baking bread and extracting oil.

But if you define "price" in terms of fiat currency, then it is plausible that at some point gold will not be available at any price. In a hyperinflation scenario, which is essentially what gold bugs fear, it would be a brave person who exchanged gold for a currency that was very rapidly losing value. In that scenario, it is quite likely that you would not be able to buy gold with fiat currency.


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## Mr Z

Then you will need a gun, not gold... 

Regardless you can't claim to have run out of gold simply because your currency is worthless, gold will have a price and will be available, you will simply have to pay the price to obtain it, whatever it is... peanuts or kryptonite, there will be something to trade and we will not "run out".


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## Mr Z

Smurf1976 said:


> It depends on how you define "price".




Price is what you pay... Cadillacs, wives, wine, banana's, labor etc  AUD is a medium of exchange that sits between what you pay and what you get. If you don't use AUD and you barter instead you are still "paying"


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## Uncle Festivus

As per Smurf, the worst thing for me as a physical gold holder would be for the currency that I 'value' my gold in to become 'junk' - it would then become a liability as you wold then be exposed to security risks as it became known that you trade in gold? Much prefer to go to a secure place and swap gold for cash - real cash & not a deposit into a bank account, as I think physical cash will become just as 'valuable' as gold in day to day goods & services trading/living if there is a banking crisis/run. 

So yes, to wish? for the 'evil' fiat to finally meet it's proper and deserving death and for gold to take it's rightful place as some sort of new world currency is a bit short sighted - we will still need some sort of non physical means of value exchange, but perhaps one that will not just be backed by the promises of politicians or manipulated by the evil, non-wealth creating money shufflers like the too big to fail entities.

For me it (gold) is a 'wealth medium exchange' mechanism for the transition period ahead.

As for the GP itself, I started to muck around with a chart and came to the conclusion that nobody really knows what's going to happen from here - it's certainly at a defining crossroad for everything in the world right now. What I have bet on though is that 'they' won't be able to save the world and we are headed for some tough & interesting times ahead.......


----------



## numbercruncher

I see Gold as money that never ever changes in value - it is Fiat currencies that have the wild swings.

Id much rather do all my dealings in Gold and Silver but things dont work like that (yet)


----------



## Starcraftmazter

numbercruncher said:


> I see Gold as money that never ever changes in value - it is Fiat currencies that have the wild swings.




That is precisely how I see it too 

And of course since overtime fiat loses value, overtime gold will always be priced higher against fiat.


----------



## zac

numbercruncher said:


> I see Gold as money that never ever changes in value - it is Fiat currencies that have the wild swings.




I read an interesting quote about gold that sums up the value of gold rather well I thought.

500 Years ago an ounce of gold was enough to buy you a nice suit.
10 Years ago an ounce of gold was enough to buy you a nice suit.
Today an ounce of gold is enough to buy you a nice suit.


----------



## Mr Z

numbercruncher said:


> I see Gold as money that never ever changes in value - it is Fiat currencies that have the wild swings.
> 
> Id much rather do all my dealings in Gold and Silver but things dont work like that (yet)




But gold does and always will change in value... it buys varying amounts of things over time, even if you ignore FIAT.


----------



## Mr Z

zac said:


> I read an interesting quote about gold that sums up the value of gold rather well I thought.
> 
> 500 Years ago an ounce of gold was enough to buy you a nice suit.
> 10 Years ago an ounce of gold was enough to buy you a nice suit.
> Today an ounce of gold is enough to buy you a nice suit.




Yeah but its not quite true is it? A $1600 dollar suit today is a little better than a $250 suit back around 2000 isn't it? I love these old chestnuts that goldbugs use, they never really stand close scrutiny! Save to say gold has done better than any other form of money over the last few centuries... now that is true.


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> As per Smurf, the worst thing for me as a physical gold holder would be for the currency that I 'value' my gold in to become 'junk' - it would then become a liability as you wold then be exposed to security risks as it became known that you trade in gold? Much prefer to go to a secure place and swap gold for cash - real cash & not a deposit into a bank account, as I think physical cash will become just as 'valuable' as gold in day to day goods & services trading/living if there is a banking crisis/run.
> 
> So yes, to wish? for the 'evil' fiat to finally meet it's proper and deserving death and for gold to take it's rightful place as some sort of new world currency is a bit short sighted - we will still need some sort of non physical means of value exchange, but perhaps one that will not just be backed by the promises of politicians or manipulated by the evil, non-wealth creating money shufflers like the too big to fail entities.
> 
> For me it (gold) is a 'wealth medium exchange' mechanism for the transition period ahead.
> 
> As for the GP itself, I started to muck around with a chart and came to the conclusion that nobody really knows what's going to happen from here - it's certainly at a defining crossroad for everything in the world right now. What I have bet on though is that 'they' won't be able to save the world and we are headed for some tough & interesting times ahead.......
> 
> View attachment 47389




Gold has its place and time, that has been 'now' for the last decade and will continue to be for quite a few more years IMO. However gold would be too deflationary to use permanently as a formal currency given the way our credit system, banking system and political systems function, they are simply not compatible for anymore that a short period of time (a stabilization period perhaps!). Once the distress has passed FIAT will again make more sense than gold but for now it is gold all the way.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.sprott.com/market-insights/gold-alerts/gold-alert-june-8,-2012/

By Eric Sprott & Shree Kargutkar

June 8, 2012

excerpts



> The Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in April, 2012 surged almost 1300% on a YoY basis. Total gross imports for the month of April were 103.6 tonnes and the net imports were 66.3 tonnes1....This represents an increase of 640%.






> Japanese pension funds have finally discovered the value of investing in gold. The $500M Okayama Metal and Machinery pension fund placed 1.5% of its assets into gold bullion-backed ETFs in April in order to "escape sovereign risk"4.






> When buyers representing 140 tonnes of new demand enter a market which only has 175 tonnes of monthly supply, we are left wondering ....


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## Smurf1976

Mr Z said:


> Regardless you can't claim to have run out of gold simply because your currency is worthless, gold will have a price and will be available, you will simply have to pay the price to obtain it, whatever it is... peanuts or kryptonite, there will be something to trade and we will not "run out".



I don't think anyone is saying that gold will "run out" as such. Just that those with gold may not be willing to accept any amount of fiat currency in return for it.

It's a bit like saying that in 1985 you could have swapped a dozen 68cm remote control stereo TV's for a reasonable car. In 2012 few would accept them as payment for anything at all and they are essentially worthless. You can still buy a car and you can still buy gold - but nobody is likely to accept any number of 27 year old TV's as payment.

Likewise I'm sure you'll still be able to buy gold (or a car) in the future. But it's possible that sellers may cease accepting AUD, USD etc as payment if value of those starts declining rapidly enough.


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## Mr Z

Yeah, I get that Smurf and what I said stands, IMO this market will always clear at a price and if it for some reason doesn't you own a shiny block of uselessness!


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## Mr Z

*Predictions Anyone?*

Greece goes OK, Ben disappoints and we sell off to "the low"...

What is your guess?


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Predictions Anyone?*



Mr Z said:


> Greece goes OK, Ben disappoints and we sell off to "the low"...
> 
> What is your guess?




Equities - I think 'the market' is several guesses ahead of itself? It was falling on reality, which would eventually trigger the next round of QE, both US & Euro, but then the market started to second guess this outcome and has risen for several days now, which would negate further QE??? QE is fundamentally a program to support share prices?? After-all, this is what the market is conditioned to now, not what the economy is actually doing ie going by the data from the last week the US is well on it's way to a double dipper, even if it won't be officially sanctioned by the NBER till next year....

And the latest data has shown that China too has hit a Great Wall.......they can push liquidity all they like but they will find out, just like the rest, that even 'free' money can't create demand in the face of falling asset prices bought with old liquidity/debt.

The problem with the Euro zone is that the creditors are now the debtors themselves - there just isn't enough to go around.......even Germany is politely saying it doesn't have any more appetite to bail out everyone?

If anything it might just be getting a bit easier - short the Dow at any level and long gold at any level.......just depends how deep your pockets are?


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## blue0810

*Re: Predictions Anyone?*



Uncle Festivus said:


> ....
> .......just depends how deep your pockets are?




No sure. I’ll have to  check on monday morning


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## Mr Z

*Calling all goldbugs...*

Listen

Bron Suchecki: The Role of Arbitrage in Precious Metals Markets

I mean really listen and learn... remember that more than half the shills are on *YOUR SIDE OF THE FENCE!*


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## Joules MM1

cupla spankin wot-tha's

_first_, yeah yeah yeah !
http://www.businessinsider.com/socg...tton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=moneygame

excerpt


> if gold catches up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s), its price would rise to USD 8500/Oz," adding that just "to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007, gold would have to rise to $1,900/oz, assuming full transmission from the monetary base increase to the gold price.







_then_, nah mate, nah !

Anti-Silver Bets Keep Rising Into Price Inflection Point 

http://247wallst.com/2012/06/21/ant...to-price-inflection-point-slv-sil-agq-hl-gld/

excerpts


> The real interest was in the PUT options, implying that investors are putting on more and more bets against the devil’s metal. We saw more than 100,000 Put options trade hands this Thursday with about 40,000 of those taking place in the front-month July expiration. That is almost triple the normal volume in options and it is interesting that it is happening this close to 52-week lows.






> With silver now close to a 52-week low and with the bets growing for even more weakness, we would note that this is usually the sign of a key inflection point being very near.  That does not necessarily mean that silver is going to bounce, but if it trades much lower from here then it may take the hot air out of the devil’s metal for quite some time.


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## Uncle Festivus

Well then I guess you either have to believe that PM's (and any other market for that matter?) are in fact just a by-product of the likes of Lava Girl types and are in fact manipulated or it's all fair and a zero sum game??

If you believe the first option then _they_ would (and do) use critical technical junctures to placate the chartists into a certain position, usually bearish. 

On the monetary bit, you would also have to subtract all that has been vaporised but kept off the ledger also I would assume, to get the balanced view of whether or not the money supply has truly expanded at all?? Which sorta puts a dent in the gold-for-inflation angle?

Right now it's all about money velocity I would think - those who used to have money & got burned in the 'GFC' but still have the IOU's have a net negative effect against those who have new money from the Fed but only park it in 'safe' temporary lodgings ie bonds?? This is showing up as crashing consumption, which in a system based on ever growing consumption means death! 

Only a matter of timing...........but getting closer by the day.........although tempting to buy some more G at these prices


----------



## challenger123

*Gold Price to Break $2000/Oz in 2013 - QE by Central Banks, Chinese and Indian Buying*

Hey Gold Investors

As economists, we need to continually look at the current economic situation, then see where the market is headed, invest now and profit from it ahead of the curve.

While we wait for the markets to begin to lift, we need to be looking at the gold market and seeing how demand will lift the price of gold in the next 12-18 months.

We are still sitting near decade year highs at $1590/oz last night.




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*I Hold: IndoChine Mining {ASX:IDC}*

The world's Central Banks are accumulating as much gold as they can, we Central Banks are continually Quantitative Easing, we have CHina accelerating their gold purchases to record highs each month, and now we will begin to see India, the world's biggest gold consumer re enter the market over coming months. 
	

		
			
		

		
	




The reason demand has fallen off from Indian consumers in the last 12 months, softening the price of the yellow metal, which in affect has created a bullish wedge pattern is the depreciation of the Rupee against the $US has made it more expensive for them to buy gold.


This is set to reverse in the coming months, with new govt and central bank measures aimed at lifting the Rupee against the $US back to its long term average.

Then watch the price of gold lift significantly over the next 12 months, and with it, gold shares.

Cheers Challenger




> India Prepares to Counter Rupee’s Slide
> By Kartik Goyal and Unni Krishnan - Jun 25, 2012 9:33 PM ET
> 
> India boosted the amount of government bonds foreign investors can purchase by $5 billion, seeking to bolster demand for the rupee after it tumbled to a record low against the dollar.
> 
> Foreign institutional investors can now purchase $20 billion worth of government securities, up from $15 billion, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement today. Long-term overseas buyers such as sovereign wealth funds, central banks and pension funds will be allowed to invest in the debt directly to broaden the base of investors, the Reserve Bank also said.
> Enlarge image India Said to Consider 12 Rupee Measures Including Debt Limit
> 
> The rupee pared gains after the statement as expectations of wider steps, spurred by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s comments two days ago that officials will announce measures to stabilize the currency, were disappointed. The rupee is Asia’s worst performer of the past year, having tumbled 21 percent versus the dollar, and its decline has contributed to an inflation rate that the central bank deemed last week too high to allow an interest-rate cut.




More: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...to-curb-rupee-s-slide-finance-chief-says.html


----------



## Tysonboss1




----------



## Joules MM1

Tysonboss1 said:


> video




have to agree......gold is a great trade, a garbage investment


----------



## numbercruncher

Joules MM1 said:


> have to agree......gold is a great trade, a garbage investment






Garbage is a pretty harsh word -

Had you "invested" in some shiny stuff 10 years ago for example how much would your investment be worth now I wonder? Perhaps compare that to some non-garbage investments ?


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## explod

Buffet, Gates, blah blah

They never discuss its relevance as a currency.  With the printing presses diluting paper currencies gold is holding its value.  Though it may appear to be rising in price it is merely reflecting the value dropping out of currencies.

It is a store in which to hold ones wealth, nothing more or less.  And is why a lot of banks are now net buyers again, so as to protect equity value.

With all their many other primary responsibilities you can bet Gate's and Buffet would not have the knowledge of those who have made the subject of gold the prime one.


----------



## Joules MM1

numbercruncher said:


> Garbage is a pretty harsh word -
> 
> Had you "invested" in some shiny stuff 10 years ago for example how much would your investment be worth now I wonder? Perhaps compare that to some non-garbage investments ?




youre doing exactly what is said on the video......you are also defending in hindsight...... and the trade youre alluding to is a trade, as in something traded, not an investment.....tell all the people who bought when gold was above 1800 and assure them have nothing to worry about because youre goingt o provide them with evidence that the metal produces income and yields in excess of what they can get anywhere else.....of course, it needs to remount 1800 and you'll need to provide evidence that that is going to re-occur 

gold is a great trading vehicle through which to move liquidity both short and long.....is saying  great too much of a good word too?

i'm wondering if all those people whom "invested" in gold during the declining years and finally got out in the early 2000's are scratching their heads and thinking, you know, i was told and became convinced in the mid 1980's that gold was a buy and hold but i got nothing from it for 20 years and finally gave up.....oh well....... i guess some of that inflation-eaten cost was returned after 2000


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## Joules MM1

lulz.....as if i care......i just run with it


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## numbercruncher

I do agree that gold currently seems better as a trade than buy and hold - great swings for a trader.

But gold and Garbage dont come in the same sentence I would suggest.


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## Tysonboss1

> It is a store in which to hold ones wealth, nothing more or less.



Yes, But but not a very good one. Any asset can be used for this purpose, and many other assets generate income at the same time, and can currently be purchased at very low prices. Compared to gold which will not produce income and is trading at very high speculative levels.





> With all their many other primary responsibilities you can bet Gate's and Buffet would not have the knowledge of those who have made the subject of gold the prime one




I would think that with over 60 years of dedicated study of business, finance and economy, and his record for making sound rational decisions. Buffet is better placed to make rational decisions than the upstart gold bugs whos "investments" depend on getting large numbers to aggree with them and follow them into the purchase.


----------



## Tysonboss1

numbercruncher said:


> -
> 
> Had you "invested" in some shiny stuff 10 years ago for example how much would your investment be worth now I wonder? Perhaps compare that to some non-garbage investments ?




As it said in the video, any asset came outperform over a short time frame.

But you would probably aggree that the key to any successful longterm investment plan is compounding.

Gold will not  compound, An ounce bought today in 100 years will still be an ounce.

An asset that produces income can have that income rolled over to buy more assets that produce more income.



It would be crazy to think buffet would evert believe in buying gold as an investment, Since his entire fortune has been built buying income producing assets.

Buffett started with $10,000 in 1950, If he had placed that money in gold he would not even be a millionaire, So when asked if he would prefer $1M in gold or his current $40Billion of income producing assets and cash, You can bet he will take the $40Billion.


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## Tysonboss1

Gold is not currency.

Gold is an asset and a commodity.

Like any Commodity, It's price can flucuate, So Buying it at the top and hoping to use it as a store of value will probably not work out very well, and as already mentioned you can't even enjoy any income while you wait for the price to return to your entry level.

As with any commodity, It is possible to get speculative gains from buying and selling it at the right times, just as you can with oil, iron ore, copper, wheat etc etc. But you also have an equal chance of making a speculative loss, Gold promises no more safety of principle than any other commodity. and as the years from 1980-2000 show, It is not even a good inflation hedge over decent periods of time.

Gold has no floor in it's price once it loses favour, We produce more every year than we consume and massive stock piles exist world wide, we don't rely on it as a commodity in the way we rely on Oil, Ironore, copper or wheat, If we stopped producing those commoditys our stockpiles would be suffering within weeks,

At the rate we consume Gold it would be decades before we would have to reopen the mines.


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## Tysonboss1

> I see Gold as money that never ever changes in value



- 

I Beg to differ, Gold changes in value every day, less than a year ago it was over 1900 USD now it's closer to 1600 USD, do you really think that the USD has improved in value by that amount




> it is Fiat currencies that have the wild swings.




Yes they can move in value, But not as quickly as commodites like gold



> Id much rather do all my dealings in Gold and Silver but things dont work like that (yet)




Really, you want to lug physical gold around, seems like a step back to the dark ages to me.


----------



## CanOz

Tysonboss1 said:


> -
> 
> 
> Really, you want to lug physical gold around, seems like a step back to the dark ages to me.




Perhaps a gold linked currency....now there's a novel idea!!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Perhaps a gold linked currency....now there's a novel idea!!
> 
> CanOz




Gold linked currencies, so 1900s.

Currencies which *sever* the link with gold? Now that's what I'm talking about...


> *Acceptance speech by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, Aachen, 9 May 2002.*
> What is money? Economists know that money is defined by the functions it performs, as a means of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value. But, just as importantly, money is also defined by the community for whom it performs these functions. Because it is an economic instrument for each of its users, it is also a political and cultural bond between them. Consider this simple fact: we engage in an exchange of goods and services everyday by using money as the means of exchange; and we offer our labour in exchange for money, which, in itself, has no value. We only do this because we believe that we will, in turn, be able to exchange that money for more goods or services. This fact tells us much about the confidence that we place in money itself. And it tells us much more about the confidence that we place in each other. Hence, money is, in essence, a social contract.
> 
> The euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community.* It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold*, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.



http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2011/html/fs110706.en.html



ECB structures their balance sheet such that
Currency: means of exchange, unit of account
Gold: store of value

I laugh at those who *still* think dollars bid for gold and not the other way around.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/euro-gold.html


> The point is that the Eurosystem's response (volume expansion) to its current systemic threat (the debt crisis) is not surprising. Does this mean the euro will collapse (experience hyperinflation)? No. Because, for one reason, it has severed the link to the nation-state. The euro is behaving perfectly predictably in maintaining the nominal performance of its system through expansion, but it cannot be forced to fund the future government profligacy of the PIIGS through volume-only expansion. That link is severed.
> 
> But the dollar, on the other hand, is nominally on the hook not only for the debt mistakes of the past, but for all future dollar-denominated liabilities, obligations, entitlements and promises of the biggest debtor in all of history, on top of a debt mountain that is probably another $100T in size depending on your measurement criteria. That's a big difference. The dollar is an old currency in the winter of its life, linked to the greatest profligate debtor the world has ever known. The euro is a young currency that has severed its link to the nation-state. *The ECB can save its own system, but the member states cannot force it to fund perpetual profligacy*.
> 
> Here are a few simple principles that will save you the hassle and embarrassment of constantly being surprised by the actions of politicians and central bankers. They will never sacrifice the system to preserve the value of the currency. But they will always sacrifice the currency to save the system. And there is a very simple formula for how they do it.


----------



## CanOz

Whatever...my point was that a gold linked currency is LIGHTER than carting around physical gold...

I'll leave the fiat currency argument to you and UF...not much interest in it.

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Whatever...my point was that a gold linked currency is LIGHTER than carting around physical gold...
> 
> I'll leave the fiat currency argument to you and UF...not much interest in it.
> 
> CanOz




My point is that someone came up with an even better concept than that, gold linked currency might be lighter than gold but its supply doesn't expand and contract readily enough for the means of exchange/unit of account needs of modern economies. Gold linked currency might weigh less than gold but that doesn't make it very economically useful.

The Euro has been set up specifically for consumers/debtors to have a stable means of exchange and unit of account, leaving the gold as a store of value for the producers/savers. So you get all the benefits of 'lighter than carting around gold' coupled with golds systemic stability/confidence on the ECBs balance sheet.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> My point is that someone came up with an even better concept than that, gold linked currency might be lighter than gold but its supply doesn't expand and contract readily enough for the means of exchange/unit of account needs of modern economies. Gold linked currency might weigh less than gold but that doesn't make it very economically useful.
> 
> The Euro has been set up specifically for consumers/debtors to have a stable means of exchange and unit of account, leaving the gold as a store of value for the producers/savers. So you get all the benefits of 'lighter than carting around gold' coupled with golds systemic stability/confidence on the ECBs balance sheet.




So basically the currency is fine, in design. Its just the politics and the lack of a fiscal union that lets it down?

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> So basically the currency is fine, in design. Its just the politics and the lack of a fiscal union that lets it down?
> 
> CanOz




Define let down, right?

If by let down you mean that profligate countries can't murder the "medium of exchange" to dig themselves out of a consumption hole at the expense of taxpayers? Then yep, the Euro has been let down.

But on the other hand, all those people using/trusting Euro as a medium of exchange/unit of account haven't been let down, the ECB has fulfilled their stability mandate, and any dilutions/liabilities added to the balance sheet are announced to the market every month/quarter in the ConFinStat. i.e. the market can discount/markup the price of the Euro to match what they see on the balance sheet.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Define let down, right?
> 
> If by let down you mean that profligate countries can't murder the "medium of exchange" to dig themselves out of a consumption hole at the expense of taxpayers? Then yep, the Euro has been let down.
> 
> But on the other hand, all those people using/trusting Euro as a medium of exchange/unit of account haven't been let down, the ECB has fulfilled their stability mandate, and any dilutions/liabilities added to the balance sheet are announced to the market every month/quarter in the ConFinStat. i.e. the market can discount/markup the price of the Euro to match what they see on the balance sheet.




Well i suppose it hasn't completely calved it yet...

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Tysonboss1 said:


> -
> 
> I Beg to differ, Gold changes in value every day, less than a year ago it was over 1900 USD now it's closer to 1600 USD, do you really think that the USD has improved in value by that amount




Well yes, it has been a major influence - although it's been relatively benign when compared to the rise in the DX. It is expected that the POG would decline as more money flows to the USD as other currencies implode up until the point where the USD is itself under threat from implosion.




Oh, thanks for throwing in the Buffett Bomb, again - the poster boy for compounding inflation investing.

As has been repeated before, if you hold Euro's do you still trust them to still hold any 'value' in a years time?? What is a 1913 USD dollar worth today? Be carefull how you measure growth & wealth because it usually doesn't account for the diminution of value of the measuring currency as opposed to inflation?

As soon as you receive a dollar note in your hand it will start losing value, unless you do what Buffett etc do and get rid of it into something that will benefit from inflation and loose liquidity by central bankers, which up until now has been equities & housing. It's different this time, ie the 'X always goes up' paradigm has already shifted, but unfortunately Buffett probably won't be around to see that his old rules don't apply anymore?


----------



## explod

> Nomura Securities cut its gold price target this year to $1,754/oz from $1,791/oz, but lifted its targets for 2014 & 2015. Nomura said that central-bank buying, continuing strong Chinese demand, persistently negative real interest rates, and a growing bunker mentality for those investors who see dark scenarios on the horizon, were all positive for gold.




Today from:-   https://twitter.com/#!/goldcore


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> ..... unfortunately Buffett probably won't be around to see that his old rules don't apply anymore?




is this part of a stand-up routine......Charlie Munger would find it funny and most of the BH shareholders.....as do i......

classic......


----------



## Joules MM1

for the times i've watched equities and gold decline and incline together, it's all the necessary evidence to suggest the power of credit debt withdrawal...in other words liquidity via gold instrument or equities instruments are not distinctive in a deflationary collapse......money does not auto flow to gold and you can see that event show in the oct 08 low gold declined 1030 zone through 700 zone.......not long afterwards equities rejoined the incline ....think on that fear period and think on the % of loss.....

at the worst deflationary end you would find equities at their worst prices.....and yields at the their best.......if current yields are 4 or 5% what are they likely to be at with equities at 90% below fair value? What is the yield going to be on gold.......

what gold holders dont agree with is that in a major decline everything declines.....you wont know where it will end just like the holders who gave up as gold hit $255 in 2000......faith in proven cycles that produce earnings is one thing and blind faith in a centuries old tale of promise is quite another.....a government is unlikely to confiscate your yield and most definately confiscate or regulate the value of you gold holdings......if that deflationary period comes to pass very few will have the purchasing power to accept your gold and such a severe event gold will be sold at heavy discount to pay down debt.......it's a liquidity vehicle not sure-fire concrete guarantee


----------



## explod

Washington Blog is a site well worth checking out for gold holders in my view.

The following on gold would indicate *it is a sound investment.*

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012...gulations-would-drive-gold-prices-higher.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> is this part of a stand-up routine......Charlie Munger would find it funny and most of the BH shareholders.....as do i......
> 
> classic......




Cracks me up too


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> if that deflationary period comes to pass very few will have the purchasing power to accept your gold and such a severe event gold will be sold at heavy discount to pay down debt.......it's a liquidity vehicle not sure-fire concrete guarantee




The purchasing power will be in the form of what they own, & willing to exchange for what they need.

If indeed central banks get to the point hat they have to sell the gold they may or may not have in their vaults, as it is not audited, then there will be more than enough willing to swap their, say, Euros for some other form of value store rather than for the money in their pocket to evaporate completely.

It's always been an interim device. There are even less guarantees with the alternatives??

Do you trust bankers & politicians to fix this? They have had more than enough time historically - we should be well out of recession when compared to past recessions - yet here we are on the verge of another global recession. 

Patiently awaiting QE3.....4......5......6......?


----------



## CanOz

Perhaps GLD would be a better comparison, is the index reweighed? would there be survival bias in it?

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Cracks me up too





........you'll benefit....as in, avoiding fitting for the sake of defending and there's a major plus to that idea

read the whole piece

http://www.trade2win.com/articles/1738-how-lie-financial-statistics

one final point .....as i keep saying that gold as a liquidity vehicle is like any other trade, simply a trade .....and if youre new to the auction arena, that is, the person to person sense of value within an auction, then, you'll do well to read that article and store it for future reference......i am of the opinion that in all instances where emotive logic dictates asking all the questions that'll lead to confirming a bias is not the same as asking all the right questions that lead to a balanced position that allows the trader to be both sides of the fence without having to defend one or the other.......


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> The purchasing power will be in the form of what they own, & willing to exchange for what they need.





therein, is the key; in a severe deflationary period; what one owns is falling in value with everything else, yet, that is not the challenge, the challenge is finding someone who'll exchange your goods for gold, while, in the meantime, actual fiats gain in buying power......so having ownership is only of value in so much as you can utilize them, vastly different to trading them.....once values fall in tradeable prices, your past sense of their future worth falls away......you see, fiat currencies operate now and in the event that gold bugs dreams come true there'll be the kind of upheaval that will not be wirth the upside once the battle is over......afterall, how would gold benefit us once youve taken away the ownership of the masses and put it into the hands of the people who currently rely on fiats?

anyways, not sure the reason i got involved in this convo, least to say, if youre acting on cognizant faculty and not fear, then, good luck to you holding onto the dream......


----------



## explod

Gold is *real money.*

Very interesting takes coming through now but the punch line is at the end of this short article.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35347.html


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/will-india-implement-first-executive-order-6102-21st-century

gold, India, currency

excerpt



> It appears that finally after months of "being long of Gold in Indian Rupee terms" having proven to be quite a resilient and profitable strategy, the Indian state has also figured it out. And they are unhappy. Because to them, the key reason for the rupee weakness has nothing to do with the actual economy, and all to do with the Indian population trying to protect against currency debasement coupled with inflation: i.e., purchasing gold. And they *will no longer allow it*.


----------



## Superb Parrot

explod said:


> Gold is *real money.*
> 
> Very interesting takes coming through now but the punch line is at the end of this short article.
> 
> http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35347.html




Good information. CNBC recently discussed this (can't recall the name) and the advise was buy the real metal rather than ETF's.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> in the meantime, actual fiats gain in buying power.......




Yes, I've always said that, I have physical cash & physical gold - just waiting for the sign to increse holdings of both.

The other side of the equation is - so what is the alternative plan? You can either continue to believe that other humans, notably the same ones who created this mess or those of their ilk, will save the system, or they won't. In which case what is your plan 'B'? That's even if you beleive there is a mess to contend with in the first place?

Right now I think those who do not advocate holding gold should be the ones to put forward reasons to continue trusting fiat and those who control it??


----------



## Joules MM1

jitter buggin gold bugs have plenty to be opto about with an elephant up bar forming......needs convincing followthrough monday........and get through 1610


----------



## Joules MM1

arent equities sposed to decline when gold ascends? .......

.....nah mate
	

		
			
		

		
	




yesterday all these same candescent greens were screaming sells .......lulz

shorts :  :22_yikes:


----------



## drillinto

Gold Nears Lows For the Month

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/6/28/gold-nears-lows-for-the-month.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> arent equities sposed to decline when gold ascends? .......
> 
> .....nah mate
> 
> yesterday all these same candescent greens were screaming sells .......lulz
> 
> shorts :  :22_yikes:




Do any rules apply anymore?

Short covering rally nicely timed for end of qtr window dressing. 

Mr Market is very sick......where is the price discovery?

Gold needs a catalyst to go higher from here, like another QE, but with the Dow at this level not likely??


----------



## Ann

As a chartist I have begun looking at things through a much longer time frame. Gold is one of the things I look at. I am neither bullish or bearish, simply an interested bystander interpresting charts as they appear to me.  This is a long term quarterly chart for gold and I am seeing what appears to be a bearish 'megaphone top'. It also appears there may be a Head and Shoulders pattern developing. I am using a low noise line chart in order to see the dips and highs clearly without the distortion of candlesticks or bars.


----------



## burglar

Joules MM1 said:


> .......lulz ...





> Lulz is a synonym for Schadenfreude and means "lol derived from other's suffering"....




Apparently?!


----------



## Joules MM1

Ann said:


> As a chartist I have begun looking at things through a much longer time frame. Gold is one of the things I look at. I am neither bullish or bearish, simply an interested bystander interpresting charts as they appear to me.  This is a long term quarterly chart for gold and I am seeing what appears to be a bearish 'megaphone top'. It also appears there may be a Head and Shoulders pattern developing. I am using a low noise line chart in order to see the dips and highs clearly without the distortion of candlesticks or bars.




Ann, with respect. Consider the drawbacks of a line chart, they do not give exact levels as you can see from a daily patterning of the recent period where we see equal levels (close-enough) that dismisses the megaphone idea, secondly these long range charts are prone to forcing you into hindsight trades as you cant trade any of that history, whereas, breaking the pattern down to it's lowest form might give you a better idea of the story coming......megaphones are one of those aboutish ideas lacking in precise entries, exits or measurements and cannot clearly define where it ends unless the trader places faith that a crossing of a line on a chart signifies to trade....the market doesnt care about lines on a chart......head and shoulders come under the same category more often than not due to their spectacular failure rate, however, there is a high coincidence of measurements met where the left shoulder base to head-tip is met by 100% extension in the direction of the nested set, so, you could place faith in trading in that direction based upon (A) setting a stop at the peak of the right shoulder and (B) you are reliant on other traders acting on the same signal in a self-fulfilling way, again, with the number of time that a head and shoulders pattern simply vanishes you'd have to ask at what point and with how much risk you want to take with this with what is almost a random approach, in other words, using a broad brush-stroke idea of the magaphone and head and shoulders ideas really requires much deeper set of questions than does the pattern fit a boxed set of ideas.......you could say that the early authors of these ideas who had no internet or computing power were extremely ahead of their time in formulating these ideas, however, they were attemtping to tell price where it was going and they authored their ideas based on proving those idea without the luxury of time to see the failure rate.......

what's important with these regimes is to work them forward, starting at the essence of the auction process rather than starting at the broadest picturesque moment.......the thinking is vastly different ......

the idea of these huge shapes is twofold, first and obviously, these were designed to preprogramme a course of action, to box price and foretell the future with the limits of data and thinking at the time, secondly, they are a faith idea and leave the trader aloof or distracted to what's really going on in the auction......

now, think about this carefully; imagine going to a live auction where you can only bid in one direction (up!) as is usually the way......ask youself, if there are  several products with only slight changes to the features of each batch of products how come some get bid up on  a higher percentage than others even tho the features might be better and then ask yourself how do i draw lines and place restrictions upon the price movement that might tell me where the price is likely to go........afterall, how far out  in time do you really need to go.....at the end of the day, when you go to pull the trigger, the point of deciding  where to enter or exit a trade is going to be vastly different to the scheme of a few lines on a large historic chart

i would have thought that line chart provide more noise and distortion.....as it brings less clarity, less focus on more recent pricing and the wider or softer focus the lens the less likely supply and demand can be seen...... they can be combined to create a whole picture.....

there seems to be an ongoing cottage industry of what might work in the trade process and we pay a lot for that education and as the auction process is like no other industry most dont realise that how they pay is through lost time.....this industry (a loose term at best!) is one of the few where people can be on a level playing field with vastly different ideas about how to engage within it.....they can have the same account size with the same trade facility and given the same period of time come away with vastly different results and that all comes down to one thing: knowledge and a plan on how to implement that knowledge......

last friday, there was, within the confines of larger pattern(s) as youve shown here, was a break-out upside, there were several pullbacks within that larger break-out, there were smaller moves within those retracements.....the difference trade wise is they were all actionable and correctly read produce income within a short period of time and allowed thought for mondays trade set-up.....i am not sure i can say the same of most head and shoulders and especially not megaphones......faith in pattern(s) is one thing, trading them is vastly different in terms of not just the dollars but the equally important ingredient; time

just ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

burglar said:


> Apparently?!




ha! i'd forgotten the origin......

tawdry  habits that become tawdry friends, huh

......just words on a screen, burglar


----------



## Joules MM1

silver and gold bulls take heart

excerpt:



> SILVER COT REPORT 6/29/12
> Commercials picked up 1,144 longs but covered a massive -3,799 shorts to end the week with 43.27% of all open interest, a mammoth change since last week, and now stand as a group at -60,055,000 ounces net short, almost 25,000,000 less net short ounces from the previous week.
> Technically, this is one for the history books.
> Very few weeks have ever seen these huge percentage point changes!




http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver...s (SilverDoct  ors)&utm_content=Google Reader

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just Like 1965, These Are Golden Years

excerpt:


> WSJ columnist Simon Constable visits Mean Street at the onset of a seminal moment in world economics: central banks are hoarding gold at amounts not seen since 1965. (Photo: Bloomberg News)




video:
http://live.wsj.com/video/just-like...ight4#!7D420  101-C848-4A9C-9467-65A06C8F3EDB

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
excerpt:


> For the reporting week, price fell about $49 and total OI dropped 4,874 to 413,618. Now, check this out: The Gold cartel net short position was reduced by 19,531 contracts to just 144,170 and a net short ratio at 1.93:1.




http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/184659#comment-184659

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/06/12 blog :







> here's a good reason not to be invested in the downside persepctive





COT – Funds High Short Positions Major Rally Fuel for Gold, Silver

excerpt:


> HOUSTON – As a courtesy to our blog readership, just below is a video update we shared with Got Gold Report Subscribers on Monday, May 28.  The video deals mainly with the changes in the most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report for gold and silver futures, including some exciting developments in the structure of the very low Managed Money (hedge funds, commodity trading advisors, etc.) net long position.




video


----------



## burglar

Joules MM1 said:


> ha! i'd forgotten the origin......
> 
> tawdry  habits that become tawdry friends, huh
> 
> ......just words on a screen, burglar




I just had to look it up ... thought it amusing ... had to share!!


----------



## Ann

Joules MM1 said:


> Ann, with respect. Consider the drawbacks of a line chart, they do not give exact levels as you can see from a daily patterning of the recent period where we see equal levels............
> 
> .......  just ideas





Hi Joules

Thanks for the long and thoughtful response, (the forum would not accept the full quote, sorry) much of which I can agree with you looking at charts for the sake of a short term trade. Monthly and quarterly charts are past history for trading purposes. However, I am going through an exercise at the moment of looking at charts in an entirely different way than I have in the past 10 or so years I have been charting. I have a purpose specific reason for this.

Chart reading is an art form in my opinion, sometimes I see it properly and sometimes I don't. However over years and years of experience in the field I have seen miraculous things on charts and head and shoulders are a reality if they are read correctly. Currently the XAU is experiencing the results of a fullfilled head and shoulders pattern. Chart to follow. 

In support of charts and charting, recently I was Googling for some historic charts I had lost. Unexpectedly in my search I found one of my old old charts done back in 2006 where I believed I saw a long term cup and handle pattern emerging. For fun I did the swing trade math calculations for the folks on that particular forum (goldismoney) on the chart, put it up and promptly forgot it. When I found the chart again I decided to see how close I got to the final dollar calculation on the first chart. On the 11 August 2006 I calculated Barrick Gold would rise to $52.50 on 28 January 2008 it had its high of $53.57 before it fell back. Charts to follow

Regards

Ann


----------



## Ann

Ann said:


> Currently the XAU is experiencing the results of a fullfilled head and shoulders pattern.





Whoops...sorry typo...too late to edit $XAO I had meant to type.


----------



## beatthemarket

back to $2,000 by the end of the year, most likely fueled by a return to risk and a flaring of geopolitical tension.  remember, gold is being treated like a risk asset now.


----------



## Joules MM1

Ann said:


> Hi Joules
> 
> Thanks for the long and thoughtful response, (the forum would not accept the full quote, sorry) much of which I can agree with you looking at charts ....




Ann, having your own thread looks like a good idea so your posts arent lost in the quagmire of stuff......i like making long diatribe posts on the weekend and look forward to indulging the pattern gambit soon......there's a few traders i've followed although they have tended to be fund managers who use these larger patterns, such as Jeff Spots from Spots on Trends and https://twitter.com/#!/rr_trades (with DeMark) and they have a strong ethic with clearly efficacy for these patterns ......there's no doubt about the patterns......having made my first trade in 1983 i think i've seen every pattern there is and these days, as you can see in earlier posts on the S&P 500 thread, if an analogous pattern appears to be emerging i'll add that as a rick profile....not withstanding i am trading the next bar not the previous one.....

much to chat on, i think

thankyou, Ann

julian


----------



## Tysonboss1

beatthemarket said:


> remember, gold is being treated like a risk asset now.




Gold is and always has been a risk asset, just like any other commodity.


----------



## explod

Tysonboss1 said:


> Gold is and always has been a risk asset, just like any other commodity.




Always has been and there is a lot of risk about now.

Currently insurance against money printing and the deflating value of money in the bank, term deposits and bonds.

It has been for 6000 years and a few naysayers are not going to alter that well embedded custom.


----------



## Joules MM1

tiny moves on gold today, at least something to extract compared to other markets.....

*Bank of England to restart printing presses as outlook dims * 
Wednesday, July 04, 2012 6:01:00 PM (GMT-05:00)

excerpt


> LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is expected to fire up its printing presses for a third round of economic stimulus later on Thursday just two months after shutting them down.




http://shorttext.com/nbNXYW3KCKkA



> June was one of Britain's worst months in over three years, purchasing managers' surveys showed this week, cementing views that the Bank would be forced to act. [GB/PMIS]
> 
> "It confirms the subdued nature of economic activity in the UK and the need for more monetary stimulus," said David Page at Lloyds Banking Group, who sees the BoE's asset purchases eventually reaching a total 500 billion pounds -- or about one third of Britain's GDP.


----------



## Ann

Joules MM1 said:


> Ann, having your own thread looks like a good idea so your posts arent lost in the quagmire of stuff....
> 
> julian




Hi Julian

Most of my posts deserve to be lost in the quagmire of stuff IMO! 

Best

Ann


----------



## Mr Z

Low soonish?

@ mid $1400 level?

& then we attack $2k... mid $2k looks possible.

& then we correct, possibly big time, 50%, 2 years?

& US swings right for a term or two.

& the US shows signs of life.

& dividend paying stocks do well for a bit.

& bonds start to come under some pressure.

With universal QE unfolding and signs of life limited it is not likely to be the end of golds run here and now. There is at least one more decent upleg here. Wait for the gold stocks to get giddy... THEN WORRY!

So go the ramblings of the roofless dictator!


----------



## aclassic

ALL HAIL

OUR EMERITOUS

MR Z HAS SPOKEN

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif


----------



## Mr Z

Psssst..... be careful he is insane.


----------



## aclassic

Mr Z said:


> Psssst..... be careful he is insane.




Well where does that leave the rest of us then?

cheers


----------



## explod

aclassic said:


> Well where does that leave the rest of us then?
> 
> cheers




We are contributors to the pie in the sky. 

Can't see the US$1540 support being breached but could take some time for the upside break.  As Z points out, fear and associated flights to the US$ will hold it for awhile yet.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> Low soonish?
> 
> @ mid $1400 level?
> 
> & then we attack $2k... mid $2k looks possible.
> 
> & then we correct, possibly big time, 50%, 2 years?
> 
> & US swings right for a term or two.
> 
> & the US shows signs of life.
> 
> & dividend paying stocks do well for a bit.
> 
> & bonds start to come under some pressure.
> 
> With universal QE unfolding and signs of life limited it is not likely to be the end of golds run here and now. There is at least one more decent upleg here. Wait for the gold stocks to get giddy... THEN WORRY!
> 
> So go the ramblings of the roofless dictator!




It's as good an hypothesis as any?

The problems are structural so this time it_ is _different.

So we just keep playing the game while ever they keep QE'ing? Playing the manipulated indices....

But eventually........the Minsky Moment.

As for global growth, the targets required just to get back to where we were in 2000 are basically impossible, so this is the new order - get used to it?

Actually I'm surprised how resilient the old fiat fractional banking system has shown itself to be - I guess It will just be a bigger crash when it eventually does crash? Only the timing is unknown........a global recession in the next 6 - 8 months anybody?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Only the timing is unknown........a global recession in the next 6 - 8 months anybody?




After the US Presidential Election for a rough-en 

But after what we have seen the last few years anything is possible till the paper(electronic) system does collapse down to value again.


----------



## Mr Z

The US election has the potential to be a catalyst, should the republicans get in. There is 2 trillion of stimulus that has essentially been soaked up by the banking system and not been released to "the street" for various reasons. It is floating around the system shoring things up but doing little more than that so far. *IF* that begins to hit the streets with whatever new found hope the republicans may bring business then it will buy the US a real bounce and we could get a virtuous circle developing for a while. I'm sure it will buy *LESS* than 2T of real growth, much less, and that it will result in higher cost of living etc in the end, but it could turn the tide for 2-4 years. It is a truly gob smacking amount of potential energy pent up in that system. Yes I know it will ultimately be a destructive thing but between here and there? Around half of the DJI stocks are hitting all time highs, they are telling us something.

Regardless Ben seems poised to once again fight a highish USD and a bout deflation with yet more QE, he is looking for the political cover to do it. The rest of the world has just upped the stakes with new liquidity, amping up the currency race to the bottom. Hard not to see gold respond to that, along with all other risk  assets... but after this flush has passed and if the US is looking up then gold could struggle for some time, wet finger in the air a couple of years seems about right. I dunno but I will tell you one thing ---> the market will make sure that most of us are wrong ---> so pick the least loved path and keep an eye on it!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm not sure of the 'money on the sidelines' argument as what is not being factored in is the 'debt not marked to market' problem? Remember when they changed the accounting rules so that none of the housing debt was marked to market? Now I don't know the numbers but I would assume that the underwater housing loans would comfortably be in excess of the 2T 'credits' just waiting to pounce on........just what would it be deployed in to? Stocks? What is the Dow currently 'pricing in'? That conditions are on par with the last time it was at 13000? To me US equities are overbought on QE & recovery rhetoric and very little hard supporting data, especially when the rest of the world is clearly in recessionary mode & slowing.

The bulls are putting forward that US companies have never had so much cash - but they have never been in so much debt as well - on balance they are all, apart from a handfull, net debtors still.

I think the US has come close to pulling it off except they didn't plan for the rest of the world to collapse around them and undo all the 'good' work. 

PS they still need to find $450Billion a year just to pay their interest bill......with interest rates esentially negative...imagine what would happen if they actually got a recovery going and rates started to rise - the USD is already rising, which will begin to affect exports.


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm not sure of the 'money on the sidelines' argument as what is not being factored in is the 'debt not marked to market' problem? Remember when they changed the accounting rules so that none of the housing debt was marked to market? Now I don't know the numbers but I would assume that the underwater housing loans would comfortably be in excess of the 2T 'credits' just waiting to pounce on........




The thing is it doesn't have to be market to market... that will allow the extent of what I am talking about. Don't forget that lots of this debt is being systematically defaulted on and is being purged from the system. Regardless of how debt is resolved once it is dealt with your are in a position to improve. I am not saying there is no problems left in that arena but it is also not where I see the short term bounce coming from. 



Uncle Festivus said:


> just what would it be deployed in to? Stocks? What is the Dow currently 'pricing in'? That conditions are on par with the last time it was at 13000? To me US equities are overbought on QE & recovery rhetoric and very little hard supporting data, especially when the rest of the world is clearly in recessionary mode & slowing.




Yes stocks will benefit but I am primary talking about street level, the myriad unlisted SME's that make up the bulk of the US.



Uncle Festivus said:


> The bulls are putting forward that US companies have never had so much cash - but they have never been in so much debt as well - on balance they are all, apart from a handfull, net debtors still.




As a whole they have the strongest balance sheets in the US.



Uncle Festivus said:


> I think the US has come close to pulling it off except they didn't plan for the rest of the world to collapse around them and undo all the 'good' work.




You can't pull this off in the long run... it will always eventually fail, all debt will be covered one way or the other, it will cost.



Uncle Festivus said:


> PS they still need to find $450Billion a year just to pay their interest bill......with interest rates esentially negative...imagine what would happen if they actually got a recovery going and rates started to rise




You need to look at what is done in a financial repression... interest rates will be contained as a matter of priority until it is simply not possible to do so anymore. Then you are likely nearer to currency reissuance than the touted hyper inflation.

I am talking about a short term wiggle up provided by a % of the funny money that is floating around the financial system 99% of which has not found its way out to the street. This has been the Feds lament... how do we get people using these funds. All I am saying is that a change of attitude at the top has the potential to spark a SHORT tick up in the real world as a percentage of these funds are put to work. Two to four years is short when you are talking juggernaut size economies, they can run far once a little momentum is generated.

I would also expect, if it where to occur, the breath of the recovery would be narrowish. Certain parts of the US wouldn't necessarily see any improvement.

Their economy still functions... it is still large... there is still opportunity for those that know exactly what they are doing... builders are still building and selling etc etc... have you seen the building stocks? This is not a 100% bad news story!



Uncle Festivus said:


> the USD is already rising, which will begin to affect exports.




One of the major reasons that QE3 is very near... Republicans + yet more new "free" (LOL) cash! DEFLATION will be the cry soon.... but maybe not until September, July may just deliver a good sound jaw boning but that will possibly be enough for the market. 

Wall St wants Obama gone, they will likely get what they want in the "best democracy that money can buy!"


----------



## sinner

Still...


----------



## JLM Financial

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently reported speculators increasing their net longs in Gold by over 10% to 136,268.  However gold has fallen sharply this week.  Not looking good for the bulls out there.
Our firm put a recommendation to short gold last Monday.


----------



## CanOz

JLM Financial said:


> The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently reported speculators increasing their net longs in Gold by over 10% to 136,268.  However gold has fallen sharply this week.  Not looking good for the bulls out there.
> Our firm put a recommendation to short gold last Monday.




COT - GOLD - Shorts a gradually unwinding but yeah a recent leg down...this is last weeks.


----------



## sinner

I hear the Basel peeps are pondering upgrading gold to a tier 1 reserve asset, from the tier 3 it currently lives in as part of Basel III.

So um...what's 1% of current bank reserves = in ounces of gold?

:bazooka:

www.bis.org/publ/bcbs189.pdf

COMEX is nothing but another source of leverage in the gold system and still it's tiny compared to LBMA. Who cares about the gold COT?


----------



## JLM Financial

Interesting chart.  Shows golds lag with COT.


----------



## Mr Z

JLM Financial said:


> Our firm put a recommendation to short gold last Monday.




LOL... You are VERY late to that party! Not much left to the downside here...


----------



## Joules MM1

JLM Financial said:


> Interesting chart.  Shows golds lag with COT.




worth a quick peak, video, discrep silver futes v COT

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/07/comex-silver-futures-skewed-short-potentially-explosive.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

JLM Financial said:


> The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently reported speculators increasing their net longs in Gold by over 10% to 136,268.  However gold has fallen sharply this week.  Not looking good for the bulls out there.
> Our firm put a recommendation to short gold last Monday.




Closed already?


----------



## Mr Z

Brace yourselves, the low... if it has not already occurred, is likely in the next 3 weeks. We look to be heading out of the eye of the storm into the second scary bit IMO. On the bright side, if I am correct we can go bargain hunting soonish.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some fireside reading for a cold Kondratieff winter

http://goldswitzerland.com/the-seeds-for-an-even-bigger-crisis-have-been-sown/

Mostly for the Aurophobia mob....


----------



## Joules MM1

on the small side tradeable side, there's nothing i'm seeing that says gold is a buy right now.......i'm moostly on the short side......we have a large triangle playing out with rejection low of 1430 but that's all subjective conjecture right now.....the  two major up-plays were both news driven energy releases and look like sell set-ups......even if the COT is skewed it only means less shorters not more aggressive buyers.......i'd want to see an unprompted buy-up that looks impulsive to get set on a daily frame.....


----------



## Mr Z

The options OI profile is interesting, supports the idea of a low in the $1400's... conversely silver hasn't got the same sort of OI, 25 & 23 are indicated but the OI is not huge. I'm thinking that at the gold lows we may well see relative strength in silver and other areas... HUI maybe. To me relative strength in subordinates will be one of the indications we are done. IMO an exit plan or should I say repositioning plan is unfolding in this second half of July. You can "evaluate" my ideas with 20/20 hindsight come August  Just sticking it out there!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gold equities are distinctly unloved, so are they signalling before the fact or just oversold?

Took another small long pos in NCM today, although the market depth still on the sellers side....


----------



## Mr Z

Hated is a little closer to the mark! They are discounting sub 1K gold it seems... HISTORIC undervaluation IMO.


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=978

this little piggy went to short the market.......irate:


----------



## Joules MM1

*CHART OF THE DAY: How Gold Could Surge To $8,300 By 2015* Matthew Boesler	| Jul. 11, 2012, 4:42 PM 





excerpt



> Applying the Pareto principle to the current gold price, we find a theoretical price target of USD 8,300. If we were to assume that the last trend phase were to start in August 2012 at USD 1,600 and the bull market had begun in August 2001, the parabolic phase would last 29 more months and thus end in spring 2015. The price target according to the 80/20 principle is therefore USD 8,300.




http://www.businessinsider.com/char...principle-gold-8300-2015-2012-7#ixzz20PlcDGvV


----------



## Mr Z

This little bit is going to be hard to judge.

Beware the relative strength in silver.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=978
> 
> this little piggy went to short the market.......irate:




Not exactly sure what the point of the ASF blog thing is for really - could just have posted it here??

It's not blood in the streets time yet so waiting still......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> Hated is a little closer to the mark! They are discounting sub 1K gold it seems... HISTORIC undervaluation IMO.




....but blood in the streets for NCM by the look of it - still have 80% of position to go yet.....nibble here......inverse H&S forming......too soon to the party as usual.....


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not exactly sure what the point of the ASF blog thing is for really - could just have posted it here??
> 
> It's not blood in the streets time yet so waiting still......




so i can keep track of the posts......blood in the streets is likely cause the opposite effect to what most people think will happen......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> so i can keep track of the posts......blood in the streets is likely cause the opposite effect to what most people think will happen......




So you think...target below 1500 yet? The best I can do is somewhere between 1200 & 1500....


----------



## Joules MM1

quite poss, if only to avoid hail mary ideas which most gold threads seem to be girdled with.......for me these are technical ideas mixed with who's actually doing what.....do i think all the 5g to 8g calls and all the fiat-is-dead calls means there's too many bulls still?.......probably.......


----------



## Mr Z

Target $1460... will reevaluate if/when we get there or if we break $1630 upside. Until then we are preforming dentistry on chickens, largely a pointless & fruitless activity!


----------



## Mr Z

*Just got this...*

... email --->

*"Final hours!! Portfolio construction in a bear market"*

From Kohler!

PROOF positive we are near the end of this rout.

Ends near USDX 85.5 IMO


----------



## Joules MM1

lulz......not hard to see how threads develop into subtle posturing.....that's the one good thing about auctions; everyone gets to be right at their own expense 

:


----------



## Mr Z

Nuthin subtle about targets!


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> Nuthin subtle about targets!




that depends on who gets sucked into believing they exist v who set them to appear......

bahahahaha


----------



## Mr Z

Yeah, right... whatever kid


----------



## Joules MM1

*Gold Swap Dealers Go Net Long For Only Third Time *16 July 2012



> (Bloomberg) -- Gold Traders Trim Bets on Price Rise, CFTC Data Shows
> Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York gold futures in the week ended July 10, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
> 
> Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 126,235 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions fell by 10,980 contracts, or 8 percent, from a week earlier.




and further still.....



> Another bullish indicator is the CFTC data last week. While COMEX gold market participants in total reduced their net long positions - the swap dealers, relatively larger traders and big banks, went net long for just the third time.
> 
> Gene Arensberg of the Got Gold Report (see Commentary) reports that “as of Tuesday, July 10, as gold closed on the Cash Market in New York at $1,567.16, Swap Dealer commercial traders reported holding 54,038 gold contracts long and 53,239 short for a combined net long position of 799 lots according to data released by the CFTC on July 13.”
> 
> This is a bullish development as there has been a long period of accumulation by the swap dealers in recent months and this change of ownership may mean that COMEX gold has now transferred to stronger hands on the long side who are getting into position for gold’s next leg higher in this secular bull market.




https://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_b...net-long-only-third-time#.UAQVaRC5-gQ.twitter


----------



## Mr Z

Options expiry 26th...


----------



## explod

On the 12 month chart we have a well defined pennant which is now closing.  The current upper is at about US$1600 and the bottom now about 1540. See:-  

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb_.html

We have had five such pennants since the gold bull run began around 2000 and all have broken out to the upside.  Will this be any different is the question.

On the current trajectory it has to burst out one way or the other within about the next month.

Anyhow, just 2 cents on a Tuesday.


----------



## Mr Z

Upside break... eventually. You can expect a little pain first by the look of the current lay of the land.


----------



## Steve C

Interesting read:
http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/ar...A&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_click


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Steve C said:


> Interesting read:
> http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/ar...A&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_click




Not yet, I haven't finished loading up on NCM


----------



## Joules MM1

still too many bulls?........does the worm need to turn a bit more to allow for another run-up?

*2012 gold price forecasts cut further: Reuters Poll*



By Jan Harvey

LONDON | Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:04am IST


http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/17/precious-poll-gold-idINDEE86F0CE20120717

excerpt



> While gold prices have averaged just over $1,640 so far this year, beating last year's record average spot price of $1,565, their overall performance has been unimpressive.
> 
> Gold ended June little better than flat on the year after its worst first-half showing since 2007.
> 
> Prices are expected to climb to $1,677.50 in the third quarter and $1,750 in the fourth. In 2013, the 29 forecasters surveyed expect them to extend their rally with another record average price of $1,791.25.


----------



## Joules MM1

*'Game Changer' For Gold In UK As New Regulation Favours Gold*
07/18/2012 09:15 -0400

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/game-changer-gold-uk-new-regulation-favours-gold



> Gold may also receive safe haven buying from the LIBOR scandal and crisis which deepened yesterday when Bernanke’s testimony conflicted with the Bank of England’s King and Bernanke appeared to admit that Fed employees were involved in the manipulation of Libor.






> Also extremely bullish for gold was Bernanke’s admission that Libor is “structurally flawed” and an international effort would be needed to restore the rate’s credibility as the leading benchmark for mortgages, derivatives and corporate lending around the world.




Gold bullion is set to benefit from the axing of commission for IFAs and the implementation of the RDR “should be regarded as a game changer” for gold as an investment in the UK, according to the World Gold Council.



> In its latest report ‘Gold as a strategic asset for UK investors’, the World Gold Council rightly points out that the current commission structure in the UK narrowed the range of products recommended “which has been suboptimal for clients’ risk preferences and diversification prospects”.
> 
> The World Gold Council backs the new regulation*, arguing that it will lead to a broader range of assets including gold being recommended by advisers.






Gold as a strategic asset for UK investors: portfolio risk management and capital preservation

http://www.gold.org/investment/rese...rsification/strategic_asset_for_uk_investors/

* surprise surprise


----------



## explod

Popped in for a yarn with my local coin dealer last Tuesday.  He agrees based on his own  signs within the trade that gold is set to rise.   But like you Z, thinks the first breakout will be down (out of my own rough pennant) then later in August will be up in earnest.

We will see.

By the way Graeme has been a coin dealer and traded physical bullion for 50 years and is now teaching his Grandson the trade too.  I think it is well worth while seeking out someone in the trade that you can get to trust to reinforce you own take.  The danger of course is taking the word of others without knowing how to properly do you own research.


----------



## Mr Z

Yeah well, if only we could be certain! Options expiry is the 26th, the geeks will have targets, lots of puts @ 1400, 1450 and 1500. Many of them are there to provide exit liquidity for short positions, they are near enough to be targets...

To be exact...

1400.0P	9764
1450.0P	7576
1460.0P	1255
1500.0P	7527

IMO this is the mattress the short side intends to land on  ---> 1460 is a number that my T/A has thrown up as a target, but as with young blondes and road rules it is to be treated as merely a suggestion!

This is how the game is played so it has rarely paid to bet against it, however I get the sense that this move is all but done and they are struggling to reach the objective. The floor @ ~ 1530 ish could well be it if those fat government buyers turn up again.

Who really knows... eh?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like some Realist Cordial is finally being passed around the Euro zone today and a commensurate re-adjustment in all things risky? 

Is it :flush: as :fan??

China is :horse:

While Americans just can't help themselves

 :shoot::badass:




:cowboy:


----------



## Joules MM1

we made it to the outside of the infamous triangle thing......what a Dragho......if we can stay above here for the next 24 hours, strap on yer harness


----------



## Mr Z

Steady on chappy, a few near term hurdles yet... options expiry this session then we have the high probability of a disappointment at the July/August FOMC meet. There is NO Wall St loving for Obama ergo the Fed will be unlikely to make any supportive moves this far out from the election (JMO!). 

So far the option expiry session looks like it is going to be ruled buy the bulls BUT they can turn really brutal, really quickly.

I was hoping for more clarity by now but it still looks like at least the first part of August could be a slow slog.

I just want to see a capitulation flush out so we can get on with it... this corrective phase is getting really old and tired, but it is still kicking!


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> I just want to see a capitulation flush out so we can get on with it... this corrective phase is getting really old and tired, but it is still kicking!




the last time we came out of a similar phase pre equities low of 2009 (gold led recovery instead of banks...there's a thought!), the last time the corrective phase was technically dragged upwards.....this is probably the case now, too......when the commercials roll into the fray as theyre at lowest short pos since that low (pre mar 2009) i'm favouring a slow grind up.....why rush when there's continuous cheap supply falling into your hands from the money managers......


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z, 

first set of trees to chop thru 1625's 

a weekly close above this area looks like the next stepping stone


----------



## Mr Z

Yes.

We stopped on cue last night. Some caution being shown by the lesser shorts into the FOMC meeting IMO. If Ben disappoints the short side will hit all guns blazing. IMO the best we can hope for from Ben is some vague statement that leads the market into a state of confusion. That was Greenspan's expertise, alas Ben is not very good at it!

At this point I am plumbing for FOMC disappointment, reaction low early August, Jackson Hole QE3 mutterings in late August and some QE3 type action so late in the election cycle that it can't help Obama --> Wall St has an Obama voodoo doll just riddled with pins and they do own the Fed! Either way, Democrat win or Republican win, the dollar seems due to start it's march south again, only the reason will alter slightly... not the result. Can the Euro crisis over come this developing USD head wind? Maybe, but not for long IMO the USD is hitting the Feds pain levels, too much higher and that will be a QE3 trigger.

The (correction!) end is nigh! 

but not quite yet IMO 

but then who am I to pass such judgments?  :


----------



## jancha

From Callum Newman in St Kilda:

Gold is in danger of ending its 12 year run of higher prices. Or is it? A quick look at some recent research shows that not only is nothing wrong with gold, but the conditions are in place for much higher prices. 

That might sound like wishful thinking. Gold has been consolidating for a while now ”” longer than any other time since the current bull market began according to Ronald Stoeferle in a recent report, 'In Gold We Trust'. The gold price peaked in September last year at $US1920 and is now trading around $US1615.

That's a fall of about 16%. That's not pretty for anyone who bought at the top. But it does look mild so far compared to the previous 1970–1980 bull market when gold went down 50% before going back up over eight times in value.

Bullion Vault also pointed out recently that in the last ten years every time the gold price has effectively gone nowhere for twelve months, gold gained 33% on average in the following year. 

In the report 'In Gold We Trust', Stoeferle argues that 'the foundation for new all-time-highs is in place.' His main gist is that interest rates have to be kept low so governments can continue to finance their huge debts. And that's just for those already on the books. The future trend is falling growth but rising costs (healthcare, social security), which means more and more debt. 

Even a modest rise in interest rates will force a big increase in debt servicing costs. So expect governments and central banks to act in concert to hold borrowing costs down, by printing currency to buy bonds. That means major central banks are going to keep debasing their currencies. 

Welcome to 'financial repression'. 

It's in times like these you get negative real interest rates and a transfer of wealth from savers to debtors. This is what Diggers and Drillers editor Dr. Alex Cowie is talking about with his Dutch Anomaly. 

When yields are below the rate of inflation, like most government bonds and bank deposits in the US, UK and Europe, investors and savers are actually taking a loss. This sets up gold (and silver) as a logical alternative that can preserve purchasing power. As long as this goes on, it's bullish for precious metals. 

Negative real interest rates are already a big factor in the two big gold markets, China and India. In the last five years, emerging markets drove 70% of the demand for gold, with China and India accounting for half of that. 

Stoeferle reckons that, if you think incomes in China and India are going to keep rising, it stands to reason a lot of money will continue to flow into gold. 'The gold price in terms of purchasing power in China and India is currently about 80% lower than in 1980. This means that, to Asian investors, gold is still amazingly cheap.' 

Diggers and Drillers editor Dr. Alex Cowie is saying the same thing about gold stocks. He plucked out a graph for his subscribers the other day that showed gold stocks have dropped to GFC lows as the falling gold price and high production costs have turned gold mining investors as pessimistic as the English about a warm summer for the London Olympics. 

Stoeferle also likes the look of the gold mining sector. 'We believe that solid mining shares in politically stable regions currently represent a high-leverage bet on the gold price, with an attractive risk/return profile. We therefore believe that the current, historically low valuations offer a good opportunity to invest.' 

How long gold continues to show its current weakness is uncertain, but this bull market looks far from over. 

Enjoy your weekend! 

Regards,

Callum Newman
for The Daily Reckoning Australia


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> .....
> 
> We stopped on cue last night. Some caution being shown by the lesser shorts into the FOMC meeting IMO. If Ben disappoints the short side will hit all guns blazing. IMO the best we can hope for from Ben is some vague statement that leads the market into a state of confusion. That was Greenspan's expertise, alas Ben is not very good at it!
> 
> At this point I am plumbing for FOMC disappointment, reaction low early August, Jackson Hole QE3 mutterings in late August and some QE3 type action so late in the election cycle ....




going by some of the price action this morning (i closed screen at 3am ish aest) there appears to be a few traders in agreement with you......some heavy sells came in right at that res high, once the false break was made seems the personality of exchange was def different compared prior to the news spike where all the energy that brought price into that level was exhausted......


----------



## Mr Z

We also need to keep in mind that 20/8 is about the time the Greeks need to pony up and if history is a guide they won't. That puts the Euronuts on the back foot and in a reasonable world they should be ejecting Greece from the Eurozone. As things stand dramatic action will be needed to stop Spain following them, we may see exits in quick succession if indeed Spain is "too big to bail". The market will front run this with all sorts of bets... the first half of August could be violent chop city as confusion reigns supreme, we have never quite been here before ---> all the more reason that Jackson Hole could deliver some big and coordinated international monetary policy announcements. 

Government bonds in the stronger countries and those that can print $$$ are at unreasonable levels given the fundies of most if not all of the countries. It is a rare thing to see a bubble driven by FEAR! So how does it end? Do "safe haven" bond markets go higher? or do we start a head long rush into assets that can't default on you? I think we will thrash around a bit before direction becomes clear, thrashing and leverage will kill you! Gold will have to be OK..... in the end, but suffering may occur first! Some gold, some other tangible related stuff and some cash to pick up bargains is the current strategy but I admit to having never been quite this confused as to what I think will happen. My best guess is ---> "Welcome to fake out city" or a be right hold tight market, but you don't know for sure what will be right in the end!

This is about to get exciting in a bad way by the looks of things.


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> We also need to keep in mind that 20/8 is about the time the Greeks need to pony up and if history is a guide they won't. That puts the Euronuts on the back foot and in a reasonable world they should be ejecting Greece from the Eurozone. As things stand dramatic action will be needed to stop Spain following them, we may see exits in quick succession if indeed Spain is "too big to bail". The market will front run this with all sorts of bets... the first half of August could be violent chop city as confusion reigns supreme, we have never quite been here before ---> all the more reason that Jackson Hole could deliver some big and coordinated international monetary policy announcements.
> 
> Government bonds in the stronger countries and those that can print $$$ are at unreasonable levels given the fundies of most if not all of the countries. It is a rare thing to see a bubble driven by FEAR! So how does it end? Do "safe haven" bond markets go higher? or do we start a head long rush into assets that can't default on you? I think we will thrash around a bit before direction becomes clear, thrashing and leverage will kill you! Gold will have to be OK..... in the end, but suffering may occur first! Some gold, some other tangible related stuff and some cash to pick up bargains is the current strategy but I admit to having never been quite this confused as to what I think will happen. My best guess is ---> "Welcome to fake out city" or a be right hold tight market, but you don't know for sure what will be right in the end!
> 
> This is about to get exciting in a bad way by the looks of things.




on the upside, strategy-wise, we can use the time frame as a guideline for set-ups....right now, at least on a  small time frame, the instrument is moving nicely.....i think i'll be sidelined at the bogus moments...


----------



## Mr Z

http://www.financialsense.com/contr...al-interest-rates-argue-for-new-highs-in-gold


----------



## Joules MM1

anecdotal opine:

http://www.zealllc.com/2012/goldcot4.htm


----------



## Mr Z

I am finding the OI interesting, I'm really starting to think that many futures players are moving away from the market given the Refco, MF Global and PFG Best scandals. This could be a significant market altering phenomena. Effectively it will be the smaller players that  are leaving, that means that there is less "dumb money" in the market, less for the muscle money to scare out and make profits on. This lower liquidity will make "business as usual" much harder and will likely be a semi permanent feature of the market until confidence is restored. So yeah, Adam is correct is associating the lower OI with a good entry point BUT the only difference this time is that the reason for the lower OI may be two fold, fear of the market and more importantly fear of the market place. Higher prices may not bring the liquidity back as before, this will likely accentuate all future moves = VOLATILITY! If so this will further scare away the shallower pockets... every eco system needs the bottom of the food chain.

We do indeed live in interesting times!


----------



## Joules MM1

yep

and here come the numpty press genera :dimbulb:

    july 27, 2012, 1:47 PM

Big Gold Short-Covering Rally May Be Very Near

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/07/27/big-gold-short-covering-rally-may-be-very-near/


----------



## Uncle Festivus

We might be at some kind of a sweet spot here if all goes as some suggest - The AU/USD is giving some good currency leverage at 105. I view the exchange rate as a harbinger of recession here in Oz as our manufacturing struggles to remain competitive and our government keeps adhering to the failed 'level playing field' in global trade - we play the game while everyone else still slaps duties and excise etc on their imports.....

Anyway, could be a good time for a pairs trade - short AUD/USD @1.05 & long gold @$1550.....


----------



## Joules MM1

Saxo, non-comms

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=...nts/381/Commodity+CFTC_073012.pdf&chrome=true


----------



## Mr Z

Dubai Gold Exchange hits new trading record


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> Dubai Gold Exchange hits new trading record






> Earlier last month, the Exchange commenced daily trading at 7am - which was 90 minutes earlier than normal, in a bid to gain a competitive edge on the Indian market.
> 
> Officials had said that the extended trading time would provide exchange participants with a 30-minute window before the exchange traded currency derivatives markets opened in India.





exchanges opening, amalgamating, extending hours.....these are significant events......hmmmmm.....do they mark tops or lows ?

if they were shrinking hours or impeding higher carry costs or breaking up agencies, that might trigger a rush to a low.......what we're seeing is the opposite......more like a pop.....how long can the metal keep popping?

smells like a rush to me.....meh.....do we care? ...........$$


----------



## Mr Z

It is curious to note that they are expanding while the Comex is contracting at a record rate. Surely the Comex activity will come back on the next upward move BUT the question remains will volume expand to the degree that it would have prior to these scandals.

Are we seeing those that can move away from the US system? 

Is this the start of what would be a significant trend? 

I believe that it is inevitable that as the US loses dominance we will see other centers compete to dominate futures trading in the significant commodities. However confusing inevitable with imminent is an easy mistake to make given the titanic nature of the global shifts that are underway.

These "issues" that the US Futures brokerage system have could be the trigger for an irreversible loss of trust and custom. It is amazing to me that they are not making BIG efforts to shaw up confidence and assure transparency. Given what has happened would you trust a US futures house? Remember that PFG Best passed an audit of accounts not long before the poo hit the fan and certainly after the money had gone!


----------



## Joules MM1

silver has all the right markers in its current uptrend today......dragging gold with it......kickin n screaming


----------



## Joules MM1

*ECB thinks the unthinkable, action likely weeks away*


By Paul Carrel and Paul Taylor

FRANKFURT/PARIS | Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:31am EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/30/us-ecb-options-idUSBRE86T0OC20120730

=================================================================

*Here Is Every Tool In The Fed's Arsenal*

Mamta Badkar	| Jul. 28, 2012, 8:15 AM

http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-policy-tools-2012-7#ixzz22ClWVrBm


----------



## Mr Z

It would seem like the logical response BUT the Hun's don't really want to play, there may even be legal hurdles and it looks almost certain to be challenged legally by German opponents to the idea. Mario Draghi has staked his credibility on this without getting full support for the idea, if he fares badly here the markets will ignore him in future. His words where either brave and well judged or a very stupid move.... we get to find out by the end of the month... what fun! You are riding the most expensive roller coaster in history


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> It would seem like the logical response BUT the Hun's don't really want to play, there may even be legal hurdles and it looks almost certain to be challenged legally by German opponents to the idea. Mario Draghi has staked his credibility on this without getting full support for the idea, if he fares badly here the markets will ignore him in future. His words where either brave and well judged or a very stupid move.... we get to find out by the end of the month... what fun! You are riding the most expensive roller coaster in history




crazy horse......

here's a common refrain encountered this morn



> Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass
> 
> The just announced better than expected Chicago PMI reduces the likelihood of more cowbell by Fed this week.


----------



## Mr Z

The "benevolent" crack dealer is making them go cold turkey for a while, seems that the junkies got a little too lippy and need to be brought back into line.

Odds are...


----------



## Joules MM1

backs to the wall pumping this thing with the COT last line of offense

Monday, July 30, 2012
Most Important Silver COT Chart for 2012 

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/0...-all-the-chart-below-which-he-says-is-th.html

excerpt:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> The "benevolent" crack dealer is making them go cold turkey for a while, seems that the junkies got a little too lippy and need to be brought back into line.
> 
> Odds are...




Investing Public says 'No'! No CONfidence, no money velocity!

There is a palpable lack of public confidence really in all things financial & political going on globally. The duds just keep coming, MF Global was but just the start.......well a major one, plenty of smaller players had been taken out previously but not big enough for any significance...

Has anyone 'priced in' a hung US Congress, much like the rest of the world - the public just don't know who or what to believe anymore, and then having to deal with the 'fiscal cliff' 2 months later?

EU - Draghi to do 'whatever it takes'?? with who's money? Like they could have or should have done it already if it was remotely possible??

China still contracting...there goes that golden egg for AU...

105c aud/usd short set, $1540au gold looking tempting for entry....slingshot?


----------



## Mr Z

What a yawn!

I'm starting to think that the entire market is setup to "buy the fact" this time around.

Talk about marking time...

Looks like the BOE have left it to the ECB and they look to be hamstrung by the Bundesbank. 

So far the market appears to have discount almost all outcomes so we get no more than a small disappointment trade whenever anything happens.

Has it come to this... are we all just sitting waiting for the Fed to fire the starting gun?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Is the Gold Rush Over?*
CNBCBy Sharon Epperson | CNBC – 18 hours ago




excerpts



> Sales of gold coins at the U.S. Mint plunged to about 30,000 for one-ounce gold coins in July - that's less than half the number sold in the same month last year and more than six times fewer than at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008.






> The gold market has witnessed this cycle before. Gold coin sales historically spike in times of uncertainty - most recently during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 1999 Y2K scare, and in October 1987, after Black Monday. Once the initial cause of panic levels off, sales return to more normalized levels, Colas says.




http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-...RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3


----------



## Mr Z

Is the GFC over?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> Has it come to this... are we all just sitting waiting for the Fed to fire the starting gun?




Um.....yes.



Mr Z said:


> Is the GFC over?




Um.....no.


----------



## Joules MM1

russian warships move to syria........geez that must be a fun place to be right now.....short term strength in the metal at the mo


----------



## Joules MM1

video
http://goldstocktrades.com/blog/2012/08/03/a-major-turning-point-for-gold-silver-and-u-s-treasuries/
excerpt


> The weak hands inform that the golden bubble may have been broken and the warning inscription written on the entrance to hell “abandon all hope, yea who enter here” may be applicable. We do not agree and may be considering this recent move a fake out and that we may witness a reversal sooner rather than later.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trader Dan's Market Views

Market Insights and News
Saturday, August 4, 2012
excerpts


> Both Gold and Silver remain in consolidation patterns with tightening ranges as speculative HOT money flows which are exiting are being met by value-based buying and accumulation by stronger hands.
> 
> The loss of speculative interest in the precious metals over the last few months can be seen by the steady decline in overall open interest (the number of contracts open). Generally speaking, whenever speculators are interested in establishing positions in a particular market, the open interest will rise. When they are not, the open interest will fall.










> ....once again demonstrates is that the driver of today's markets remains the gigantic hedge funds and the rest of the hot money crowd. Once they train their guns on a market and come in on the long side in size, it will move higher. Whenever they lose interest, it will drift lower and if they exit their longs in large numbers, it will move lower quite sharply unless it is countered by extremely large buying of commercial interests and other deep pocketed spectulative forces.






> ...the following chart of Soybeans and note the vast difference in the open interest and by consequence, the VAST DIFFERENCE in its price chart.






http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/gold-and-silver-continue-marking-time.html


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> *Is the Gold Rush Over?*
> CNBCBy Sharon Epperson | CNBC – 18 hours ago




loooooll I bet Sharon has been putting out hit pieces asking if the gold rush is over since $350/oz.

Everybody knows the only person doing *real* analysis of the U.S Mint gold data is Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev 

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2012/07/172012-h1-2012-us-mint-data-demand-for.html


----------



## Timmy

sinner said:


> Everybody knows the only person doing *real* analysis of the U.S Mint gold data is Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
> 
> http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2012/07/172012-h1-2012-us-mint-data-demand-for.html




Nice link tk u Sinner


----------



## Joules MM1

the Bernank speaks later this morning, 4am ish .......gold bugs will be silent, breath held no doubt

an optomistic-outlooking fed member sees more QE as less promising:

*As elections loom, Fed's Fisher sees policy minefield*



By Ann Saphir

DALLAS | Mon Aug 6, 2012 9:41pm EDT

excerpts:



> Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve and a consistent hawk on monetary policy, said the real problem with the economy, and the stubbornly high jobless rate, is Congress's lack of action on fiscal policy.








> Fisher said he is not currently worried about rising prices, at least in the short term, but he has concerns about the ability to keep inflation near the Fed's 2 percent target rate once the economy picks up.
> 
> The Fed has publicly mapping out an exit plan that calls for raising rates and eventually sell securities acquired in its effort to push down long-term rates.
> 
> Fisher, however, was skeptical about the plan's effectiveness, especially if the Fed keeps adding to its balance sheet with more bond purchases.
> 
> "It's easy to say, but it may be more difficult to do," he said.
> 
> Even so, Fisher is optimistic about the potential for a sudden surge in growth, given that many companies have boosted productivity and strengthened their balance sheets since the financial crisis.
> 
> "I think the U.S. is ready to rock and roll," Fisher said, adding, "there is a throttling mechanism which is called fiscal policy."
> 
> Even if Congress acts to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of tax increases and spending cuts set to take place at the end of the year, those fixes will do nothing to boost hiring. Companies simply cannot take on new employees if they do not know what their taxes will be, Fisher said.
> 
> "If our fiscal guys could only get their act together," he said, "we could unleash enormous growth in this country."




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/us-usa-fed-fisher-idUSBRE8751IX20120807


----------



## sinner

Still...still, but looking like pretty soon a real move will be required. At this point lower highs and lower lows, so the preference would be a support break. But that is some serious support there, as long as the current low holds it'll need 1556 for a higher high.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2012/08/gold-close-to-confirming-breakout-to-all-time-highs/

 August 8th, 2012

David Banister- www.markettrendforecast

excerpt


> I expect the 5th wave to be about 61% of the amplitude of wave 3, which ran from 681 to 1923, or about $1242 per ounce. If we were to apply that math, we come up with $767 per ounce of rally off the wave 4 lows.  $1520 plus $767 puts us at $2287 per ounce, or roughly $2300 an ounce low end target.
> 
> In summary, crowd behavior is crucial to the next coming movement in GOLD and it could be a sharp rally that catches many off guard, much like the downdraft last fall did the same to the Bulls. Be prepared to go long GOLD once over $1630 per ounce and buy dips along the way up to $2300 into the summer of 2013.


----------



## Joules MM1

and another one.......

http://www.hindecapital.com/blog/gold-poised-for-upside-breakout-of-current-range/

Gold Poised for Upside Breakout of Current Range
August 07th, by Simon White (Head of Risk Management)	

excerpts


> Gold has been caught in a very tight range since the 16% rally at the start of the year and the subsequent sharp sell off in late February and March.  Often when prices in any asset become compressed, they invariably break out of the range emphatically.  With gold, the fundamentals remain supportive which suggests that gold should break out from its range to the upside.










> Furthermore, gold is strongly underperforming relative to the rule of thumb provided by Gibson’s Paradox.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Maybe the catalyst will be the extra 1TRILLION Euro's to be printed soon & dropped from Draghi's helicopter - borrowed from Ben...


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> and another one.......
> 
> http://www.hindecapital.com/blog/gold-poised-for-upside-breakout-of-current-range/
> 
> Gold Poised for Upside Breakout of Current Range
> August 07th, by Simon White (Head of Risk Management)
> 
> excerpts
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 48534
> 
> 
> View attachment 48535




That's a great link Joules. Thanks.

Now I'll probably spend the rest of the day looking at the very long term (30+y) daily XAU/JPY chart and as much data on real Japanese rates as I can pull (I'm guessing 1950ish?).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> That's a great link Joules. Thanks.
> 
> Now I'll probably spend the rest of the day looking at the very long term (30+y) daily XAU/JPY chart and as much data on real Japanese rates as I can pull (I'm guessing 1950ish?).




Why? What are you doing - investing or trading? What more confirmation do you need? Just curious......what is your strategy?

Even more short $AU/$USD & long AU-AU

Chinese data worse than expected......


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Why? What are you doing - investing or trading? What more confirmation do you need? Just curious......what is your strategy?




lol. Here we go again 

Why? Because I am interested in monetary aggregates and the hypothesis people come up with about them and their effect on gold. Like your one, which unlike you, I've actually done research on instead of just spouting what I heard on GATA.

What am I doing? Same as I've always done.

What more confirmation do I need? What the f*** are you talking about? As a net productive member of society, the price of gold really doesn't concern me when I want to buy some. 

My strategy is to lol every time you post. 



> Even more short $AU/$USD & long AU-AU




"the USD is going to collapse but I am long USD against the currency of a major gold producing country and also long AU-AU so the only thing I'll sell gold for is uh...gold"

Good strategy bros, almost as good as your AAPL shorting strategy


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> lol. Here we go again
> 
> Why? Because I am interested in monetary aggregates and the hypothesis people come up with about them and their effect on gold. Like your one, which unlike you, I've actually done research on instead of just spouting what I heard on GATA.
> 
> What am I doing? Same as I've always done.
> 
> What more confirmation do I need? What the f*** are you talking about? As a net productive member of society, the price of gold really doesn't concern me when I want to buy some.
> 
> My strategy is to lol every time you post.
> 
> 
> 
> "the USD is going to collapse but I am long USD against the currency of a major gold producing country and also long AU-AU so the only thing I'll sell gold for is uh...gold"
> 
> Good strategy bros, almost as good as your AAPL shorting strategy




Sorry I asked.

Don't follow GATA

You are a bit rude actually.

Sounds like you don't have a clue either.


----------



## Joules MM1

tweetdom:



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> Daily Coppock Curve for $DXY on verge of breaking to a multi-month low. It suggests an intermediate -- or larger -- reversal for the dollar.


----------



## drillinto

Strong correlation between rising incomes in China and India and the gold price from 2000 to 2011


http://www.advisorperspectives.com/...rongCorrelationChinaIndiaIncomesGoldPrice.gif


----------



## Trembling Hand

drillinto said:


> Strong correlation between rising incomes in China and India and the gold price from 2000 to 2011




That old chestnut!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation


----------



## numbercruncher

More politicians seeing gold for the currency it is .....



> The state legislature of South Carolina is currently considering a measure (H 4128) that if enacted would make gold and silver legal tender in the Palmetto State. Last week, the bill sponsored by State Representative Rick Quinn (R-Lexington) is similar to an earlier bill offered by State Representative Mike Pitts (R-Laurens). Quinn’s bill passed a House committee and is scheduled for debate by the full body of the House this week.
> 
> Although the current iteration of the bill is less robust than the previous version authored by Pitts, if passed South Carolina would become the second state after Utah to enact such legislation.
> 
> The bill on the calendar in Columbia is sponsored by Representative Rick Quinn and would allow gold and silver to be used as long as businesses agree to accept them in payment.


----------



## Joules MM1

...while more politicians, who have a self-vested interest in golds direction (surprise, surprise!) want to enforce it's institutional prowess (sure) ....many analysts are calling for something different......a real negative sentiment swing might just be the catalyst for a rise in price and that swing isnt a mainstream point of view.....not yet

http://business.financialpost.com/2...hurrah/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

*Would QE3 gold rally be the metal’s last hurrah?*
Jan Harvey, Reuters | Aug 10, 2012 3:44 PM ET

excerpts


> QE’s arrival is not certain, however. Economists surveyed by Reuters this month put the odds at about three in five. Even if it does materialize, its impact on gold may be muted.
> 
> “We’re of the view that we’re getting close to game over for gold,” RBS analyst Nikos Kavalis said. “From there (a QE related rally) onwards, I am struggling to see where the kind of volumes of investment that we got in 2009 and 2010 are going to come from.”






> “Gold did rise a lot in the boom years, not just based on QE. In those days there was de-hedging, there was a shift from central bank sales to purchases, there was an increase in Chinese physical demand and a recovery in Indian demand,” Mitsubishi analyst Matthew Turner said.
> 
> “De-hedging is no longer an issue. Central bank purchases are continuing, but it’s not a question of continuing, they have to increase. Indian demand has been hit by high prices and government action, Chinese demand is quite strong, but it has limits. Investment demand is probably the real bullish case.”






> “You do need to have fresh money coming in day in, day out,” GFMS research director Philip Newman said. “You need to have continual inflows, not just one or two institutional players such as pension funds to make that decision to come in.”
> 
> Confidence in gold’s ability to go up and up has been shaken by its poor performance this year, despite the still elevated levels of risk aversion that last year drove it higher.




----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*
Uh oh, the world’s top gold forecasters are now split*
Debarati Roy, Bloomberg News | Jul 31, 2012 10:48 AM

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/31/uh-oh-the-worlds-top-gold-forecasters-are-now-split/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Why September and November are the best months for gold*
Pamela Heaven | Jun 27, 2012 2:35 PM ET | Last Updated: Jun 27, 2012 3:43 PM
http://business.financialpost.com/2...er-and-november-are-the-best-months-for-gold/


----------



## Joules MM1

this ones different.......

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=157164&sn=Detail&pid=102055

*Two of gold price's three legs look wobbly*

Clyde Russell
 Posted: Thursday , 16 Aug 2012 LAUNCESTON, Australia (Reuters) -  

excerpts


> In fact, so rapid has been the decline in gold demand since last year's record price in September that if there is a surprise, it's that the price has held up as well as it has






> For gold to resume its upward trend, a few things will have to happen, and while these are possible, they are perhaps less likely now than they were a few months ago.
> 
> The first is for the European sovereign debt crisis to ramp up again, causing a flight to the safety of gold.
> 
> The next is for major central banks, and the U.S. Federal Reserve in particular, to launch further quantitative easing, thereby debasing the value of paper currencies.
> 
> And the third, and to my mind most important, is that physical demand in India and China will have to increase.






> Graphic of gold demand vs. gold price:



http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/12/08/GLB_GLDDD0812_CC.gif


----------



## Joules MM1

*World Gold Council: Central Bank Gold Demand Doubles in Second Quarter*

August 16, 2012

http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/201...mand-doubles-in-second-quarter/#ixzz23lFN5jTh

excerpts



> At 157.5 metric tons, gold buying among central banks came in at its highest quarterly level since the sector became a net buyer of the precious metal in the second quarter of 2009, data in the organization's quarterly Gold Demand Trends report show.
> 
> The official sector--central banks and other official institutions--had, by comparison, bought 66.2 tons in the second quarter of 2011.







> Central bank gold purchases were a bright spot in overall gold demand last quarter, which dropped 7% globally, driven primarily by a 38% drop in consumer demand for gold in India.


----------



## CanOz

Honestly, its pretty amazing....The gold discussion on the Bloomy is like a see saw, one day its a bullish comment, the next day its a bearish comment...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Honestly, its pretty amazing....The gold discussion on the Bloomy is like a see saw, one day its a bullish comment, the next day its a bearish comment...
> 
> CanOz




lol....try trading it....this mornings whip-up i thought, oh yeah, no need to look to know that someone just released a report and a bunch of 'we're the smart money' bought, but first, the tell-tale rip down then the spike came.......no but yeah but no but yeah


----------



## Joules MM1

Ten Thousand dollar/ounce gold.......

video

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1780408637001/


----------



## Joules MM1

the Soros gamble ...........and he's had some good ones.........

*Soros Unloads All Investments in Major Financial Stocks; Invests Over $130 Million In Gold*
 Mac Slavo
 August 16th, 2012

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-ne...cks-invests-over-100-million-in-gold_08162012

excerpt



> What’s equally as interesting as his sale of major financials is where Soros has shifted his money. At the same time he was selling bank stocks, he was acquiring some 884,000 shares (approx. $130 million) of Gold via the SPDR Gold Trust.


----------



## Joules MM1

....the cftc report on trader pos in gold futures made for interesting reading this morning.......

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> the Soros gamble ...........and he's had some good ones.........
> 
> *Soros Unloads All Investments in Major Financial Stocks; Invests Over $130 Million In Gold*
> Mac Slavo
> August 16th, 2012
> 
> http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-ne...cks-invests-over-100-million-in-gold_08162012
> 
> excerpt




LOL, i really want to believe what i read on that site as i am a huge fan of George. The site's ad's really have me worried now...lol! Guns & Ammo, home power generation, water purification, antibiotics lol!

WTF?? 

CanOz


----------



## Buckfont

Joules MM1 said:


> the Soros gamble ...........and he's had some good ones.........
> 
> *Soros Unloads All Investments in Major Financial Stocks; Invests Over $130 Million In Gold*
> Mac Slavo
> August 16th, 2012
> 
> http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-ne...cks-invests-over-100-million-in-gold_08162012
> 
> excerpt




And this from Wealth Wire on Soros and gold.

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/finance/3689?r=1


----------



## Joules MM1

Buckfont said:


> And this from Wealth Wire on Soros and gold.
> 
> http://www.wealthwire.com/news/finance/3689?r=1




lolol.......i know i dont get out enough, but, ya know, anything presenting itself as a news-paperesque with an advert for gold below the page and an article with no author name.....well......:1zhelp: 


------------------

slightly :topic

i guess i should panic; my lappy and two desk machines might die any moment coz 







> As the Washington Post reports, Berkshire sold the 7.7 million shares of Intel stock it owned and, according to a regulatory filing, bought nearly 3 million shares of National Oilwell Varco and Phillips 66.



Warren Buffet sells Intel holdings 


Portland Business Journal 
Date: Wednesday, August 15, 2012, 12:07am PDT


----------



## Joules MM1

> This week, *it was revealed* that the Social Security Administration plans to buy 174,000 hollow point bullets which will be delivered to 41 different locations all over America.




gotta like these people for sheer gumption 

"it" was revealed by whom? who exactly was the amazing whistle blower on this one......julian assange is busy right now, so, after the beep, please divulge your inside tip on what the bad guys or the good guys are doing......



> Back in March, Homeland Security purchased 450 million rounds of .40-caliber hollow point bullets that are designed to expand upon entry and cause maximum organ damage, prompting questions as to why the DHS needed such a large amount of powerful bullets merely for training purposes




haha........how would you know? it's the homeland _security_ as in, we dont tell numpty web people stuff that numpty web people will bang on about........


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> gotta like these people for sheer gumption
> 
> "it" was revealed by whom? who exactly was the amazing whistle blower on this one......julian assange is busy right now, so, after the beep, please divulge your inside tip on what the bad guys or the good guys are doing......




err...

Took two seconds to google this out
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportu...a10187a1432388a3301e5&tab=core&tabmode=list&=

RFT from the gov is legit. i.e. it was "revealed" by the Government as soon as they put out a public request to U.S arms dealers and gun shops asking for a quote! Interpretations from sites like prisonplanet and infowars is probably not. But you gotta admit it does raise some qs.



> haha........how would you know? it's the homeland _security_ as in, we dont tell numpty web people stuff that numpty web people will bang on about........




lol the funny thing about DHS is that like most other U.S gov bodies they do all their tender process over the net. So you're right in the sense that they don't tell people what they're up to...but you can almost always see what goods and services they are tendering right now. 

As for the Buffett INTC sale, wasn't that a classic value play by WB? Bought on P/E multiple compression into 2011, and sold on expansion into 2012.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> err...
> 
> Took two seconds to google this out
> https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportu...a10187a1432388a3301e5&tab=core&tabmode=list&=
> 
> RFT from the gov is legit. i.e. it was "revealed" by the Government as soon as they put out a public request to U.S arms dealers and gun shops asking for a quote! Interpretations from sites like prisonplanet and infowars is probably not. But you gotta admit it does raise some qs.
> 
> 
> 
> lol the funny thing about DHS is that like most other U.S gov bodies they do all their tender process over the net. So you're right in the sense that they don't tell people what they're up to...but you can almost always see what goods and services they are tendering right now.
> 
> As for the Buffett INTC sale, wasn't that a classic value play by WB? Bought on P/E multiple compression into 2011, and sold on expansion into 2012.




yeah, like who was the prankster who knew the 'quote request' would be recorded.....not everyone who has a government job sings in the band we're--in-this-together ........this stuff cracks me up


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> yeah, like who was the prankster who knew the 'quote request' would be recorded.....not everyone who has a government job sings in the band we're--in-this-together ........this stuff cracks me up




Joules, I am having trouble understanding your english here. Please clarify?

I mean, this is the Social Security Administration we are talking about making the RFT, not DHS, that's why it's raising eyebrows.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Joules, I am having trouble understanding your english here. Please clarify?
> 
> I mean, this is the Social Security Administration we are talking about making the RFT, not DHS, that's why it's raising eyebrows.




ok, it's what the article is careful not to speculate on.....that's the key.....the article is vaguely specific and invites you to fill in some well chosen blanks and omits opposing logic that quckly dismisses it's claims.......

if the prime minister denies to a newspaper she is gay and the newspaper prints she is not gay, what does that make her? 

there's another round of full-court press from notoriety hunters on the web and gold attracts the worst..take out all the emotive text and scrutinise with invert questions and the largest bulk of "editorials" fall to bits


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> err...
> 
> Took two seconds to google this out
> https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportu...a10187a1432388a3301e5&tab=core&tabmode=list&=
> 
> .




the words 'combined synopsis' at the head of the xl tend to make me think the 'request' is bogus


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> the words 'combined synopsis' at the head of the xl tend to make me think the 'request' is bogus




You think a tender request on fbo.gov is bogus? Because of the words combined synopsis? 

A CS is a pretty common type of tender request, Joules...

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=combined+synopsis+site:.gov



> ok, it's what the article is careful not to speculate on.....that's the key.....the article is vaguely specific and invites you to fill in some well chosen blanks and omits opposing logic that quckly dismisses it's claims.......




Ok I get what you are saying, but still, SSA tendering for hollowpoints has raised eyebrows, not just in conspiracy nut circles either. In this case I'm very curious to hear your "opposing logic".

Anyway:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...speculation-over-hollow-point-ammo-purchases/

The request is not bogus, and according SSA and NOAA, they have legit use for the ammo.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> You think a tender request on fbo.gov is bogus? Because of the words combined synopsis?
> 
> A CS is a pretty common type of tender request, Joules...
> 
> https://www.google.com.au/search?q=combined+synopsis+site:.gov
> 
> 
> 
> Ok I get what you are saying, but still, SSA tendering for hollowpoints has raised eyebrows, not just in conspiracy nut circles either. In this case I'm very curious to hear your "opposing logic".
> 
> Anyway:
> 
> http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...speculation-over-hollow-point-ammo-purchases/
> 
> The request is not bogus, and according SSA and NOAA, they have legit use for the ammo.




lol.....just pushing buttons......i'll sober up now


----------



## Joules MM1

*CME Clearing Europe to Accept Gold as Collateral on Demand*
Nandini Sukumar and Nicholas Larkin - Aug 17, 2012 10:41

excerpt


> CME Group Inc. (CME)’s European clearing house, based in London, appointed Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), HSBC Holdings Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as gold depositaries. There will be a 15 percent charge on the market value of gold deposits and a limit of $200 million or 20 percent of the overall initial margin requirement per clearing member based on whichever is lower, Andrew Lamb, chief executive officer of CME Clearing Europe, said today.




??







> ..Prices are up 3.4 percent this year, extending 11 consecutive annual gains.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-reserves-by-country-2012-8?op=1

The 10 Countries With The Biggest Gold Reserves In The World
Mamta Badkar	| Aug. 22, 2012, 10:26 AM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-reserves-by-country-2012-8?op=1#ixzz24NMIG3nc



> #10 India
> Official gold holdings:
> 557.7 tonnes
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 9.8%
> 
> #9 Netherlands
> Official gold holdings:
> 612.5 tonne
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 60.2%
> 
> #8 Japan
> Official gold holdings:
> 765.2 tonnes
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 3.1%
> 
> #7 Russia
> Official gold holdings:
> 918.0 tonnes
> 
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 9.2%
> 
> #6 Switzerland
> Official gold holdings:
> 1,040.1 tonnes
> 
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 14.2%
> 
> #5 China
> Official gold holdings:
> 1,054.1 tonnes
> 
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 1.6%
> 
> #4 France
> 
> Official gold holdings:
> 2,435.4 tonnes
> 
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 71.6%
> 
> #3 Italy
> Official gold holdings:
> 2,451.8 tonnes
> 
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 71.3%
> 
> #2 Germany
> Official gold holdings:
> 3,395.5 tonnes
> 
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 71.9%
> 
> #1 United States
> Official gold holdings:
> 8,133.5 tonnes
> 
> Percent of foreign reserves in gold:
> 75.1%


----------



## numbercruncher

ALot of countries have alot of foreign reserve catchup to play hey ..... = soaring prices


----------



## Mr Z

GATA are crazy bullish so it follows that it will pay to be wary in the short term, such is Bill's track record! Ben's rally has fizzled only a day after positive QE3 mumblings, the market ain't buying it.... not yet. IMO the market thinks that Ben will hold back until it is clear how much of a Euro fire he may have to put out. A soaring dollar would not be a good thing if the U-rope-pee-ing's do stuff up resulting in further capital flight, he will need to defend against such an outcome, QE3 is the tool for such an event. A full blown Euro crisis provides the political cover with the USD's value being the true motivator.   Ben will keep his powder dry IMO and should U-rope settle down with a benign "solution" or a decent "can kick" then he will focus on the domestic scene. This has the potential to be quite protracted, beyond the election into next year even depending on the local data. 

JMO.... we all have one


----------



## Mr Z

numbercruncher said:


> ALot of countries have alot of foreign reserve catchup to play hey ..... = soaring prices




If China alone is aiming for first world reserve ratios it is a complete game changer.


----------



## CanOz

Am I the only one surprised by the size of US gold reserves?


----------



## Mr Z

US reserves? No one can find anyone who claims to have seen them in quite a while ---> Who really knows?

The old joke is --->

General --> President there is no gold left in Fort Knox!

President --> Quick DOUBLE the guard!!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

derivatives for vol on gold



> CFE White Paper Available by Russell Rhoads, CFA
> by Administrator	mkearney on 08-27-2012 05:45 PM - last edited on 08-27-2012 08:06 PM by rrhoads
> 
> The CBOE Futures Exchange recently published a white paper introducing trading the volatility of gold through futures on the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ).  GVZ determines 30 day implied volatility of the price of gold through pricing of options on the SPDR Gold Shares Exchange Traded Fund (GLD).  GLD is an excellent proxy for the price of gold and implied volatility of GLD options is a great indication of expected gold pricing volatility.
> 
> 
> The paper describes the GVZ index, the relationship between GVZ and GLD, and methods for trading GVZ futures contracts.  The paper may be downloaded for free at the following link –
> http://cfe.cboe.com/products/GVZWhitePaper.pdf
> 
> Russell Rhoads
> The Options Institute




http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What...per-Available-by-Russell-Rhoads-CFA/ba-p/3527


----------



## Joules MM1

*"Is gold's bull market resuming?" Aug 24*

video

http://www.nakedtrader.com/webcasts/dominic-picarda/is-gold's-bull-market-resuming.aspx

FT's Dominic Picarda for Investor's Chronicle.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Investors set to coin it off latest gold rush
*
Analysts forecasting another big run up in the price of bullion; $2,000 by end of year?
August 27, 2012 1:55 pm ET
excerpt


> “The euro zone has been quiet of late, but that doesn't mean the problems have disappeared,” said Jeffrey Rhodes, global head of precious metals at INTL FCStone Inc. (INTL), who expects gold to rally to $1,975 by year-end.




-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Mark Hulbert Archives | Email alerts

Aug. 28, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT
*Bullishness rising faster than gold*
Commentary: Contrarians in recent days have become cautious
excerpt


> ...there’s some bad news to accompany the good: Gold timers have reacted to bullion’s recent strength by eagerly and enthusiastically jumping on the bullish bandwagon.
> 
> And, according to contrarian analysis, that suggests that the rally has gotten ahead of itself.
> 
> Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). It currently stands at 47.8%.



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bullishness-rising-faster-than-gold-2012-08-28?mod=wsj_share_tweet


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gold and silver have been on a good run in spite of other risk assets going in the other direction. I wonder if it will be a false move brought on by a squeeze starting with the run up of platinum. Some of the softs & grains look to be in a bull market but this worthless stuff??


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Gold and silver have been on a good run in spite of other risk assets going in the other direction. I wonder if it will be a false move brought on by a squeeze starting with the run up of platinum. Some of the softs & grains look to be in a bull market but this worthless stuff??




i think the pop out of the daily low is bogus lift.....all dependant on one bloke saying something something koo-ee like a parrot....we need fear, man.....fear.....


----------



## Mr Z

Silver and the HUI are showing relative strength to gold, we are close but I still want to see if Ben disappointing will lead to the final lows. QE is close but it may not be as close as the market wants.... then there is all this fiscal cliff tax stuff in the US that prolly will not be addressed until post election, it should weigh on the general market until and if they kick it down the road. Kinda surprised that it has not hit the DJI harder already.

IMO things are being held in reserve until the Euronuts sort things a little better and it becomes clear what is happening with Morgan Stanley... the chatter about them has not subsided and a couple of Euro Banks are rumored to be in the same sort of trouble. Another Lehman event coming right up? I think they will be prepared if so and I think it may be the reason the QE tool is being kept in reserve.

Pure speculation OFF COURSE! but I am still thinking we are in the rough for a month or two.


----------



## zac

Im surprised no one has mentioned the one thing that the market is waiting on to decide whether to head further north or take profits.
All I say is Jackson Hole & Bernanke!


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/aug/31/eurozone-crisis-live-jackson-hole

excerpt


> Finally, Bernanke speaks at the start of the Jackson Hole holiday camp for economists. Paul Donovan, managing director of global economics at UBS, says:






			
				Paul Donovan said:
			
		

> Those hoping for hints as to September policy action are likely to be disappointed. Hoping for a hint of the September FOMC outcome is probably wishing for the wrong thing anyway.
> 
> The value of the Fed Chairman's speech will be if he elaborates on the philosophy of monetary policy today. Economists want to understand how policy makers perceive policy is interacting with the economy (as so much has changed), to get a better understanding of longer term policy trends.


----------



## young-gun

Mr Z said:


> Silver and the HUI are showing relative strength to gold, we are close but I still want to see if Ben disappointing will lead to the final lows. QE is close but it may not be as close as the market wants.... then there is all this fiscal cliff tax stuff in the US that prolly will not be addressed until post election, it should weigh on the general market until and if they kick it down the road. Kinda surprised that it has not hit the DJI harder already.
> 
> IMO things are being held in reserve until the Euronuts sort things a little better and it becomes clear what is happening with Morgan Stanley... the chatter about them has not subsided and a couple of Euro Banks are rumored to be in the same sort of trouble. Another Lehman event coming right up? I think they will be prepared if so and I think it may be the reason the QE tool is being kept in reserve.
> 
> Pure speculation OFF COURSE! but I am still thinking we are in the rough for a month or two.




Z do you think that another event of similar magnitutude to that of Lehmans could be contained given the current state of the global economy? Seems to only be hanging by a thread as it is. I guess being prepared and being able to contain are two different things.


----------



## Mr Z

young-gun said:


> Z do you think that another event of similar magnitutude to that of Lehmans could be contained given the current state of the global economy? Seems to only be hanging by a thread as it is. I guess being prepared and being able to contain are two different things.




Yes, with enough fresh money.... but then you create a bunch of other issues... but then they will have little choice. IMO in the end we will all pay for this through inflation, the silent taxation mechanism. Otherwise they allow failure, as capitalism demands, but I can't see that occurring on the scale needed to flush this system properly. Ironically the politics wouldn't support it, but IMO it is the fastest way back ---> see Iceland. Again JMO.

Also consider Japan's banks, many have been technically insolvent for years but due to political support they have not really had to confront the issue head on... nobody wanted to recognize the failure... but I think many of the issues are still there all these years later, 30 years later!


----------



## Mr Z

zac said:


> Im surprised no one has mentioned the one thing that the market is waiting on to decide whether to head further north or take profits.
> All I say is Jackson Hole & Bernanke!




We did that way back... 

+ I'm still not sure this has legs off the back of his recent words. 

In fact I can't remember feeling this uncertain... this is probably a good sign LOL!


----------



## explod

We have clearly broken out of the pennant now to the upside.  Very clear on the weekly

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Also breached the 50 day moving average.

The rhetoric out of the Fed is wearing thin, the Indians are closing in and they can no longer drop interest rates.  Notice the US$ dropped below important support last night.  "Its all about the money Ralph"

The time is now arriving for the next leg up.   Average of the last five since 01 is about 30%, the springs have been screwed tighter this time so I am calling a 50 to 60% run from now and exhaustion about March 13.

However as one to get it wrong often, we shall see.


----------



## young-gun

Mr Z said:


> Yes, with enough fresh money.... but then you create a bunch of other issues... but then they will have little choice. IMO in the end we will all pay for this through inflation, the silent taxation mechanism. Otherwise they allow failure, as capitalism demands, but I can't see that occurring on the scale needed to flush this system properly. Ironically the politics wouldn't support it, but IMO it is the fastest way back ---> see Iceland. Again JMO.
> 
> Also consider Japan's banks, many have been technically insolvent for years but due to political support they have not really had to confront the issue head on... nobody wanted to recognize the failure... but I think many of the issues are still there all these years later, 30 years later!




So it's either deflation(which as you said they probably won't let happen, unless they can't) or hyper-inflation? or just alot of substantial inflation spread across decades? The only thing bad for gold(and silver) would be a heavy round of deflation, which imo would only temporarily hold gold and silver back.

Completely agree with you a total crash is the quickest way to cleanse the global economy, and get us back on track sooner. It would be a far better path than going down the same line as japan.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Still...still, but looking like pretty soon a real move will be required. At this point lower highs and lower lows, so the preference would be a support break. But that is some serious support there, as long as the current low holds it'll need 1556 for a higher high.
> 
> View attachment 48513




lulz serious support




Lots of wood to chop now.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> We might be at some kind of a sweet spot here if all goes as some suggest - The AU/USD is giving some good currency leverage at 105. I view the exchange rate as a harbinger of recession here in Oz as our manufacturing struggles to remain competitive and our government keeps adhering to the failed 'level playing field' in global trade - we play the game while everyone else still slaps duties and excise etc on their imports.....
> 
> Anyway, could be a good time for a pairs trade - short AUD/USD @1.05 & long gold @$1550.....




Time for an update, if only to keep some people amused 

short AUD/USD @ minimum of 1.05 up to 1.06, current = 1.025, gain = minimum 2.5c & max 3.5c (leveraged)

long gold @$1550, current = $1650, gain = $100 per oz (physical)

See you on the other side comrades................:fan

Get physical gold......

[video=youtube_share;vWz9VN40nCA]http://youtu.be/vWz9VN40nCA[/video]


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Time for an update, if only to keep some people amused
> 
> short AUD/USD @ minimum of 1.05 up to 1.06, current = 1.025, gain = minimum 2.5c & max 3.5c (leveraged)
> 
> long gold @$1550, current = $1650, gain = $100 per oz (physical)
> 
> See you on the other side comrades................:fan
> 
> Get physical gold......
> 
> [video=youtube_share;vWz9VN40nCA]http://youtu.be/vWz9VN40nCA[/video]




Man up and show a statement...otherwise it's just another baseless claim. 

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Man up and show a statement...otherwise it's just another baseless claim.
> 
> CanOz




Whatever. I posted last month what the trade was. I posted today where the positions are at.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Whatever. I posted last month what the trade was. I posted today where the positions are at.




Yeah thats what i thought too. You get a fly in ya latte this morning Can?


----------



## Joules MM1

+ 
	

		
			
		

		
	




excerpt



> Buying gold during the so-called summer doldrums has been a winning trade for most of the last 34 years. This is especially the case in the last eight years as gold averaged a gain of nearly 14% in just six months after the summer low.
> 
> We tend to advise a buy and hold strategy for the majority of clients.
> 
> For those who have a bit more of a risk appetite, an interesting strategy would be to buy at the start of September, sell at end of September and then buy back in on October 31st.
> 
> This is obviously more risky as one will incur extra costs and risk the possibility of missing out on capital gains in October.




http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_bl...ber-best-months-own-gold#.UEXwO0ZD-3g.twitter


----------



## OGRooney

That's interesting Joules... Gold has a negative correlation with the USD does it not? I wonder if selling the Buck in September would have been a profitable strategy over time? Still, anyone who bought in May is definitely laughing at the seasonal buyers.

This is my first Gold chart/write up so I'm sorry if it's B grade :

We are trading within an ascending channel dating back to the beginning of August. We are also trading well above trend line support dating back to the end of June. We are currently retracing some of last night's gains but respecting this month's low of 1685 (1689, time of writing). I think we'll hit resistance at 1724, the March High, in the next week or so... Not sure where from there, good long term value either side (1920 and 1530).

If on the other hand, we've run out of steam and break 1685, next stop would be 1679 (50% Fib) and 1670 (61.8% Fib and channel support). Below the channel we have the 100% Fib at around 1643 and June trend line support at 1610 (and counting) - I doubt we'll be heading there just yet.


----------



## Trembling Hand

OGRooney I'm not too keen on you drawing of trendlines


----------



## OGRooney

You got beef with just one of my lines or all of them? :


----------



## Trembling Hand

OGRooney said:


> You got beef with just one of my lines or all of them? :




Well yeah..... they all suc...


----------



## OGRooney

Note how when we cross Channel Support mid month, former support becomes resistance,then resistance is broken and my channel is once again respected? Pretty damn good trend lines if you ask me


----------



## Trembling Hand

OGRooney said:


> Note how when we cross Channel Support mid month, former support becomes resistance,then resistance is broken and my channel is once again respected? Pretty damn good trend lines if you ask me




it could be like this,,


----------



## Joules MM1

lines on a chart.......the original magic bullet


----------



## OGRooney

Trembling Hand said:


> it could be like this,,
> 
> View attachment 48878




My chart has 3 trend lines and a very sparse looking fib, I fail to see the correlation. 

I favor closes/opens over wicks, there isn't a single 4 hour close above channel resistance and there isn't a single 4 hour close below trend line support. As i said before, when channel support is breached it becomes the new resistance. Channel Res/Support are Parallel, the lines trace the over all direction of price movement... I really don't see what your problem is as you refuse to list it or post your own 4 hour chart. I have no problem with people providing *constructive* criticism.


----------



## Joules MM1

OGRooney said:


> That's interesting Joules... Gold has a negative correlation with the USD does it not? I wonder if selling the Buck in September would have been a profitable strategy over time? Still, anyone who bought in May is definitely laughing at the seasonal buyers.
> 
> This is my first Gold chart/write up so I'm sorry if it's B grade :
> 
> We are trading within an ascending channel dating back to the beginning of August. We are also trading well above trend line support dating back to the end of June. We are currently retracing some of last night's gains but respecting this month's low of 1685 (1689, time of writing). I think we'll hit resistance at 1724, the March High, in the next week or so... Not sure where from there, good long term value either side (1920 and 1530).
> 
> If on the other hand, we've run out of steam and break 1685, next stop would be 1679 (50% Fib) and 1670 (61.8% Fib and channel support). Below the channel we have the 100% Fib at around 1643 and June trend line support at 1610 (and counting) - I doubt we'll be heading there just yet.




yeah, you got a few challenges in there with those lines.....youve drawn them to suit old pricing, without a clear-cut idea of where theyre going or what they mean......you'll keep adjusting them to infinity and never make any money or much worse.......worse i suspect....., something a tad more constructive.....the channel would be useful for an inverted head and shoulders guide, which you could argue is apparent here......secondly, you need to be completely clear on the ideas of time with the DX/Gold thinking...many times they run together, sometimes for weeks, they are not as the media tells you and many studies are to suit the narrative not the reality, so it's context minus the waffle, from a traders pov......i would tend to dispense with the channels and lines right here unless youre using them as a secondary adjunct to how youre reading a target price where say the swaps dealer/commercials might come back in and lean on the weak money that's being Drahged upwards....

one thing about lines on a chart, theyre old technology, theyre the original magic bullet from days of maps at sea, where are we going kinda thing .......thirdly the old generic fib settings for gold should never be used, try the new generic settings : like .70 and 1.272 (which work well on the xjo too) many fx will overshoot to exactly 107, you look often enough you'll see them, the trick, if there is a trick, that repeats oft enough, is to be ahead of them, i mean, when in high traffic look for them in advance as an extension within a correction not as a whole or single retracement, so, an extension within a retracement that acts as a suppliment to your ideas, otherwise you end up with "so, wot do i do now?" you are also more likely to find parallel channels by first reading the ratios correctly as they are one of the few times you can draw ahead of price and not behind it......ratios are a construct of likely targets and only slightly better than a drawn line, you still have to be trading the next bar.....your best lines are likely to be horizontal as you get back to price levels of value.......


as i said, lines are the original magic bullet....then comes the additions like ratios.....they all have the same thing in common, theyve been done to death and very few people make money from them and when they do it's not always because the lines gave them correct directions......lines have no empiric efficacey .....

if my reply comes across as elitist it is merely that i have skipped a few things between how you think and how i think.....it's common thing i see a lot of it on this forum


----------



## OGRooney

Thanks Joules, noted. IMO Lines are a priceless resource for identifying the trend, what a trader does from there is up to them. As far as support and resistance goes, Looking at all the data ie fibs/trendlines/and actual (horizontal) levels and then using the levels that correlate will no doubt give you a better result than relying on any one source of info alone. I think we've all experienced situations where setting your stop to a horizontal level is just not feasible.


----------



## Joules MM1

OGRooney said:


> Thanks Joules, noted. IMO Lines are a priceless resource for identifying the trend, what a trader does from there is up to them. As far as support and resistance goes, combining fibs/trendlines/and actual (horizontal) levels will no doubt give you a better result than relying on any one method alone. I think we've all experienced situations where setting your stop to a horizontal level is just not feasible.




ok, thanks for the dialogue......the horizontal line idea is merely marking zones of value, more a what would major money do at this level or what would weak money do at this level idea......

as far as trend goes, for me, the definition is far more about how price is constructed when i'm looking at it from a linear point of view, is it impulsive or overlapping and pro-regressive .....and that's a quick view....i mean, i gave up saying well its a series of higher highs and higher lows so it must be trending coz i know that simple idea is going to be destroyed far more times than allowed to be valid....because context to where and at what time plays a far more dominant role simply because they call for real people to take real actions, not a supposition of a line on a chart.......you cannot foresee intent with a line on a chart........

ideas to consider


----------



## Joules MM1

here's another way to see price........the SPX and HSI (almost) are posting massive outside up days......the SPX is posting a massive outside weekly bar.......how do you use lines to trade those?

you see, the scale of what i am talking about truncates you as a trader because the size of the moves take so long to form and how much time and how much $ are you going to rest on those extremes? Hwo would you know whats coming, afterall they could be huge hooks, youre now long and stuck with a postion that's slowly being killed and now you have to wait for the next line to exit.......the longer you trade, that is, the more trades you consider based on their own smaller movements, the faster your focus gets drawn away from large lines that cannot encompasse or hint at what's really going on......


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> it could be like this,,
> 
> View attachment 48878




To quote an old crank once known as Amory Hill --> draw enough lines and you will hit something!


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> To quote an old crank once known as Amory Hill --> draw enough lines and you will hit something!




lulz......bulls phases allow a lot of incredulous credibility.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

OGRooney said:


> I favor closes/opens over wicks, there isn't a single 4 hour close above channel resistance and there isn't a single 4 hour close below trend line support. As i said before, when channel support is breached it becomes the new resistance. Channel Res/Support are Parallel, the lines trace the over all direction of price movement... I really don't see what your problem is as you refuse to list it or post your own 4 hour chart. I have no problem with people providing *constructive* criticism.




You have used closes for some points and tops/bottom of wicks for others. The top line just starts at some random bar in the middle of consolidation.

If it makes sense to you thats all good. I just thought it was a bit sloppy as far as showing the up trend. Yes its an up trend but to my eyes those lines are bogus especially the middle one.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Giddy-Up...only 14 weeks to go....


----------



## Joules MM1

Sept. 5, 2012, 4:17 p.m. EDT
*Why is Putin stockpiling gold?*
Commentary: Russia is bulking up its gold reserve

excerpt


> Russia has more than doubled its gold reserves in the past five years. Putin has taken advantage of the financial crisis to build the world’s fifth-biggest gold pile in a handful of years, and is buying about half a billion dollars’ worth every month.


----------



## Joules MM1

on the other hand........

*Soros: The Survival Of The Euro Is Now Assured ”” But It Could Still End In Tragedy*
Joe Weisenthal	| Sep. 9, 2012, 7:14 AM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/soro...september-6-game-changer-2012-9#ixzz261PyLkHq

excerpt


> He explains why he always supported the establishment of the Euro:
> 
> When it was only an aspiration, the European Union was what psychologists call a “phantastic object,” a desirable goal that captured many people’s imagination, including mine. I regarded it as the embodiment of an open society. There were five large states and a number of small ones and they all subscribed to the principles of democracy, individual freedom, human rights, and the rule of law. No nation or nationality was dominant. Although the Brussels bureaucracy was often accused of a “democratic deficit,” elected parliaments had to give approval of the major steps.


----------



## Joules MM1

and what target do we have today, poppa bear? :

*Gold could hit $2,500: Citi analyst*

POST STAFF

Last Updated: 12:09 AM, September 9, 2012

Posted: 10:52 PM, September 8, 2012


Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busine..._analyst_mUxaGUr2Pu3oRrBkkabBwI#ixzz264ejzCpM


----------



## Joules MM1

hang on a sec......

*
There May Be Too Little Gold To Restore The Gold Standard*
 Emma Rowley, The Telegraph|Sep. 10, 2012, 6:40 AM
excerpt


> If the world economy today has a trend growth rate of around 6pc a year (“perfectly realistic” says Donovan), then the supply of currency it needs has to climb by 6pc annually. But the supply of gold rose less than 3pc last year





http://www.businessinsider.com/there-may-too-little-gold-to-restore-the-gold-standard-2012-9


----------



## Mr Z

At this price yes, but then that is a moot point no? What a numb nut!


----------



## Mr Z

The real issue with a gold standard lies in the rate at which the underlying money supply can be expanded and the limitations that places on a credit system. Deflation and modern credit systems are not that compatible, a gold standard would be constantly deflationary under any growth condition. If we really hit the wall and we are contracting or @ zero growth then I can see a gold standard being used to restore confidence in key currencies but I can't see it lasting any length of time.... western world politics and fractional reserve banking  are not particularly compatible with a currency underpinned by gold.



JMO


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> The real issue with a gold standard lies in the rate at which the underlying money supply can be expanded and the limitations that places on a credit system. Deflation and modern credit systems are not that compatible, a gold standard would be constantly deflationary under any growth condition. If we really hit the wall and we are contracting or @ zero growth then I can see a gold standard being used to restore confidence in key currencies but I can't see it lasting any length of time.... western world politics and fractional reserve banking  are not particularly compatible with a currency underpinned by gold.
> 
> 
> 
> JMO




On growth, the size of the planet and the size of the population would indicate that growth may not be the way going forward.

Uncharted territory so who knows?


----------



## Mr Z

Yes, true. I have considered the prospect of a zero growth economy as being a necessity at some point simply due to the fact that we literally run out of resources. I came to the conclusion that human behavior will not change, we will grow until we hit some limit and then we will fight, the more serious the limitation the bigger the fight will be. After the fight, those left will get up and grow again, it is just what we do and have done since we started walking upright. 

We are quite possibly beyond sustainable limits now, if that is true we are setting up for a brawl in the not too distant future and it will not be a small one. A scary prospect but it is a pattern we tend to follow, war tends to be a part of a commodity cycle.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Australia's gold production declines in 2011/12 *


10th September 2012



excerpt

 - 







> Australian gold production decreased some 4%, or 11 t to 261 t, or 8.4-million ounces, during 2011/12, compared with the previous year, said gold mining consultants Surbiton Associates.
> 
> “The fall in production was not surprising, given the higher gold prices,” said Surbiton director Dr Sandra Close.
> 
> “However, with several new and rejuvenated projects coming on stream in late 2012, and in 2013, we should see production rise.
> 
> At the current spot price, the value of 2011/12 gold production was estimated at around A$14-billion, which Close said contributed significantly to Australia’s exports. The average Australian-dollar spot gold price for 2011/12 was around A$1 620/oz, which was more than $230/oz higher than for the 2010/11 year.




http://www.miningweekly.com/article/australias-gold-production-declines-in-201112-2012-09-10


----------



## Joules MM1

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/uk-safrica-mines-idUKBRE88908Z20120910

Lonmin strikers march as* South Africa mine unrest spreads*

Ed Cropley

MARIKANA, South Africa | Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:32pm BST 

excerpt



> Around 10,000 striking South African platinum miners marched from one Lonmin (LMI.L) mine shaft to another on Monday, threatening to kill strike breakers, as another illegal stoppage hit Gold Fields (GFIJ.J), the world's fourth biggest gold miner.


----------



## explod

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/09/got-gold-report-euro-close-to-all-t...

A good *technical* report on gold at this juncture in my view.

I particularly like his following line :- 



> "Triangular consolidations are often continuation patterns that resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend sooner or later."




And this is exactly how the gold price trend has behaved over the last 12 years.

But you never ever really know


----------



## Joules MM1

explod said:


> http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/09/got-gold-report-euro-close-to-all-t...
> 
> A good *technical* report on gold at this juncture in my view.
> 
> I particularly like his following line :-
> 
> 
> 
> And this is exactly how the gold price trend has behaved over the last 12 years.
> 
> But you never ever really know




explod, poss to re-post that (full) link?.....thanks


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> explod, poss to re-post that (full) link?.....thanks




http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/0...w-purchasing-power-relative-to-gold.html#more

there it is


----------



## explod

Joules MM1 said:


> http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/0...w-purchasing-power-relative-to-gold.html#more
> 
> there it is




Apologies and thanks for correcting Joules


----------



## Uncle Festivus

QE Infinity = QEX

Giddy up - again......




Things must be worse than I thought...... has the global recession already started?


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/when-you-should-stop-buying-gold/

*When You Should Stop Buying Gold*

September 13, 2012

http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/inves...c-really-worth/?CFID=1460267&CFTOKEN=63184928

interesting reading even if youre not a bullion bob


----------



## Joules MM1

from the do-a-double-take file comes this:

*China Recasts Gold Bars*
Saturday - Sep 08, 2012, 04:25pm (GMT+5.5)
Today : Friday - Sep 14, 2012, 08:59am (GMT+5.5)

Read more: http://www.indiavision.com/news/article/business/343006/china-recasts-gold-bars/#ixzz26PpRm5po



> IndiaVisionExclusive  - China is busy recasting all of their gold reserves into smaller one kilo bars in order to issue a new ‘gold backed’ global currency. This is no doubt the reason for the recent trade agreements with Russia, Japan, Chile, Brazil, India, and Iran. Expect to see more nations sign new trade agreements with China in the near future.
> 
> GATA now estimates that 80% of the gold (40.000 metric tons) supposedly stored in the vaults/allocated accounts of the bullion brokerages is long gone. Clients retrieving their allocated gold have had much trouble in doing so, and when they do manage to take possession, their gold does not bear the registered serial numbers they are supposed to. One can only wonder how much of the allocated gold is now 1 kilo bars. Additionally we now read that China is interested in purchasing Gold mines.
> 
> China is well along an ambitious plan to recast large gold bars into smaller 1-kg bars on a massive scale. A major event is brewing that will disrupt global trade and assuredly the global banking system. The big gold recast project points to the Chinese preparing for a new system of trade settlement. In the process they must be constructing a foundation for a possible new monetary system based in gold that supports the trade payments. Initally used for trade, it will later be used in banking.
> 
> The USTBond will be shucked aside. Regard the Chinese project as preliminary to a collapse in the debt-based USDollar system. The Chinese are removing thousands of metric tons of gold bars from London, New York, and Switzerland. They are recasting the bars, no longer to bear weights in ounces, but rather kilograms. The larger Good Delivery bars are being reduced into 1-kg bars and stored in China. It is not clear whether the recast project is being done entirely in China, as some indication has come that Swiss foundries might be involved, since they have so much experience and capacity.
> 
> The story of recasting in London is confirmed by my best source. It seems patently clear that the Chinese are preparing for a new system for trade settlement system, to coincide with a new banking reserve system. They might make a sizeable portion of the new 1-kg bars available for retail investors and wealthy individuals in China.




(.....and.....gets better, ed)



> They will discard the toxic USTreasury Bond basis for banking. Two messages are unmistakable. A grand flipped bird (aka FU) is being given to the Western and British system of pounds and ounces and other queer ton measures. But perhaps something bigger is involved. Maybe a formal investigation of tungsten laced bars is being conducted in hidden manner. In early 2010, the issue of tungsten salted bars became a big story, obviously kept hush hush. The trails emanated from Fort Knox, as in pilferage of its inventory. The pathways extended through Panama in other routes known to the contraband crowd, that perverse trade of white powder known on the street as Horse & Blow, or Boy & Girl.




(say no to drugs, ed)


----------



## Joules MM1

http://seekingalpha.com/article/870...e=yahoo&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Correlations Gold - Seeking Alpha

(or lack of......)


----------



## Joules MM1

*Gold Standard? Don't Hold Your Breath*09/06/12 - 08:36 AM EDT

excerpt



> ......at what price in gold would the U.S. peg its currency. Great Britain returned to the gold standard in 1925, after going off it in 1914, at the 1914 peg price. This was a mistake made by Winston Churchill (he called it the biggest he ever made) since it basically ignored the vast inflation in the British pound in those intervening years. The result was a vast overvaluation of the pound and deflation and high unemployment soon followed.
> 
> What price would a new Gold Commission set as the "correct" price of the U.S. dollar vs. gold? $1,000? $2,000? $5,000? The answer is that there is no "correct" price. Whatever price is set will eventually be tested by the financial markets and fail much as the pegged currencies system failed.


----------



## Joules MM1

ruh roh.....another one:

*Here Comes $10,000 Gold...*



Sam Ro|Sep. 16, 2012, 5:56 PM


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-10000-2012-9#ixzz26jdXgxSF

excerpt



> Be prepared to hear more calls like this.
> 
> "It has never been easy to have a rational conversation about the value of gold," wrote Ken Rogoff in a 2010 piece titled $10,000 Gold?.


----------



## Mr Z

If you can forecast what a US$ will buy, or indeed if a UD$ as we know it still exists then maybe you can have a stab at golds price at the end of this bull market. Until then numbers are meaningless, they could get responsible next year and kill this thing, they could go Zimbabwe and well then who can guess?

One notion I have in my head is that it is the holder of the new reserve currency that puts an end to this gold bull market. The final price of gold will be quoted in Yuan maybe... or ???? New USD! or????


----------



## young-gun

Mr Z said:


> If you can forecast what a US$ will buy, or indeed if a UD$ as we know it still exists then maybe you can have a stab at golds price at the end of this bull market. Until then numbers are meaningless, they could get responsible next year and kill this thing, they could go Zimbabwe and well then who can guess?
> 
> One notion I have in my head is that it is the holder of the new reserve currency that puts an end to this gold bull market. The final price of gold will be quoted in Yuan maybe... or ???? New USD! or????




If they went the way of zimbabwe we would surely see unthinkable highs for gold(and silver) it would only take a small portion of US citizens to start buying when they never had before to send prices soaring. Not to mention investors jumping into the amrket to capitalise off of the huge opportunity. I imagine news would travel fast. Hyper inflation itself can move at an extra-ordinary pace.


----------



## Mr Z

As per Martin Armstrong's argument I'm not sure it is possible to hyperinflate the reserve currency without first causing some major dislocation that would end the attempt. He believes we'd end up in a war first, I think he is right. So the questions revolve around the US keeping reserve status and if not how do things change, is it peacefully relinquished or is it part and parcel of conflict? Maybe we quietly slink away from the USD, but I doubt it.

Whatever happens sticking a number on it now presupposes that things stay predictable yet gold is rising because things are less so... as such it seems a little futile to be saying now that any given number is possible or an outrageous target for gold permabulls only. 

You didn't want the report?


----------



## Mr Z

As I am sure many have noticed the BRIC's and Co are slowly creeping away from the USD...

http://www.taiwantoday.tw/ct.asp?xItem=196382&ctNode=445

I wonder how long this goes on before it provokes some action from the US, breaking the petrodollar would create some unwelcome issues for them.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/all-signs-pointing-to-gold/

*All Signs Pointing to Gold*

September 17, 2012





good read


----------



## Joules MM1

oh, you everything-conspiracy nuts are gunna love this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tung...tton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=moneygame

( the eye in the sky chopper is standing by for response posts ......  )


----------



## Joules MM1

dstm, ok.....

-------------
http://www.businessinsider.com/thes...ument-goldbug-investors-have-ever-made-2012-7

part i

*These Charts Destroy Nearly Every Argument 'Goldbug' Investors Have Ever Made*
Rob Wile	| Jul. 13, 2012, 12:59 PM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/thes...tors-have-ever-made-2012-7?op=1#ixzz26yPaLKOF

part ii

*These Charts Destroy Nearly Every Argument 'Goldbug' Investors Have Ever Made*



Myth 1:

http://www.businessinsider.com/thes...2-7#myth-1-gold-provides-an-inflation-hedge-1


----------



## Mr Z

:bbat:


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> :bbat:




say, is that one of those heavy, err, tungsten bats.........

:couch


----------



## Mr Z

Joules MM1 said:


> say, is that one of those heavy, err, tungsten bats.........
> 
> :couch




Is that a loaded question?


----------



## Joules MM1

kachiiiing



> .......Consumers in India cannot have enough of the yellow metal. Earlier, the Gitanjali Group had unveiled an ATM-like machine, which was dispensing gold and diamonds.
> 
> The vending machine, where one could purchase medallions, coins or jewellery, has become a major hit in the country, with the company planning to set up 75 such gold and diamond ATMs at premium malls, airports and temples in the next three years.




http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=158762&sn=Detail&pid=110649


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2012-09-20-gold-forex.php

goldbugs index


----------



## young-gun

just finished watching a doco 'end of the road' a mate lent me. Pretty interesting.

http://100thmonkeyfilms.com/endoftheroad/


----------



## Joules MM1

if there was a room full of gold bugs the odds that any two would have the same price target would be slim to nil.......but they'd all agree on one thing.......it's going to be massiiiiiiive.....

and here's another one......



> Rob McEwen: *gold should be in your portfolio and it's going to $5,000*
> 
> In an upbeat presentation at the Denver Gold Forum, Rob McEwen forecast that gold is going to $5,000, while setting out the path forwards for the company which now bears his name - McEwen Mining.




http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page66?oid=158424&sn=Detail&pi

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
what's that skip? you can hear the gnashing of gold teeth?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambr...waters-dalio-latest-gold-bug-to-bash-buffett/



> More than that, Dalio’s love of the yellow metal is opposite to the thinking of Berkshire Hathaway‘s Warren Buffett. Buffett has decried gold’s usefulness, most recently in a letter to Berkshire investors. “Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative,” Buffett writes. “True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.”
> 
> Not so, says Dalio.  When asked if Buffett was wrong, he replies, “I think he’s making a big mistake.” (Einhorn has echoed a similar sentiment about the Oracle of Omaha’s stance on gold.) Dalio adds that, long term, gold is not the best investment because it’s an alternative to cash.


----------



## Mr Z

Joules MM1 said:


> if there was a room full of gold bugs the odds that any two would have the same price target




.... they normally can't even settle what day of the week it is.


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> One notion I have in my head is that it is the holder of the new reserve currency that puts an end to this gold bull market. The final price of gold will be quoted in Yuan maybe... or ???? New USD! or????




Not Yuan, not "NUSD", it will be EUR.



Mr Z said:


> As per Martin Armstrong's argument I'm not sure it is possible to hyperinflate the reserve currency without first causing some major dislocation that would end the attempt. He believes we'd end up in a war first, I think he is right. So the questions revolve around the US keeping reserve status and if not how do things change, is it peacefully relinquished or is it part and parcel of conflict? Maybe we quietly slink away from the USD, but I doubt it.




Simple solution: don't have a reserve currency. Look at the ECB monthly/quarterly ConFinStat for the "new way". USD will become an "internal only" currency (i.e. not used to balance trade), oil and gold will be transacted in EUR. Gold will take on the role of trade balancer and reserve asset (store of value).

Look, we can all agree, the hyperinflation in USD already happened over the last 30-40 years. The market (largely foreign CB of trade surplus countries and the 3rd world) chose to support this "system" in spite of this. 

So: it's not like we are sitting around waiting for a hyperinflation to occur, *it already did*. What we are waiting for is withdrawal of structural support. At this point support "at the margin" is coming from China, who took on the job as the Europeans started to wind down their support after 1999.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Deutsche Bank: Here's How To Know When Gold Prices Are Too High*
|14 minutes ago

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-when-gold-prices-get-too-high-2012-9#ixzz27PMAJ0Yr


----------



## Joules MM1

some wood to chop ....i still have (pared) shorts on gold (see xao banter thread)


----------



## Joules MM1

minor ratios giving r/r levels nicely.....rocketeers may have to wait a day or three.....non farm payroll should ignite

if the vpoc zones fail, i'm looking for 1730 gold or 32.90 silver longs


----------



## Joules MM1

Rickards sez, Australians should buy gold.......


video

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1858853786001/rickards-we-are-in-a-currency-war/?playlist_id=87061


----------



## sinner

Rickards reckons he is the bomb and always plays it as if he has some secret connection to the inside world of gold when it's obvious he isn't the bomb and knows pretty much nothing about the internals of the gold market.

Also, FOFOA broke down his supposed ideas about gold confiscation ages ago 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/11/discussion-forum.html


----------



## >Apocalypto<

i have a buy on gold atm... fair support around 1755 looking for 1770 as long as my stop stay in tact, ent at 1762.60.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> i have a buy on gold atm... fair support around 1755 looking for 1770 as long as my stop stay in tact, ent at 1762.60.




trade closed,

looking for a continuation sell have also sold crude. weak euro session coming up me hopes


----------



## BrianFXman

Hopefully a pull back, but longer term up to $2,000 ...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

BrianFXman said:


> Hopefully a pull back, but longer term up to $2,000 ...




weekly still looks fine.


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> if the vpoc zones fail, i'm looking for 1730 gold or 32.90 silver longs




these levels look achivable now.....if the SPX as a beta downside leader fails at 1429's then expect buyside liquidity get pulled on silver and gold.....


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> these levels look achivable now.....if the SPX as a beta downside leader fails at 1429's then expect buyside liquidity get pulled on silver and gold.....






gold and silver targets not likely to be achieved now 

gold missed by 6 points and silver by 0.45

 ....long daily tails evidence of upwards suuport, req's a fall in eq's to reach those lower numers, which looks unlikely at the moment.....


----------



## DB008

I've posted Tungsten filled gold bars before.

Here is another incident, in New York.

http://www.businessinsider.com/tungsten-filled-gold-bars-in-new-york-2012-9


----------



## Mr Z

I know a guy that refined gold and silver professionally, he says that it would be VERY hard to tungsten fill a bar in such a fashion that it is not obvious to the experienced eye. Also, very often when you sell a bar back to a mint it is  on a melt and assay basis, I can't see a CB taking any less a precaution and I can't see them being caught by what is essentially a retail level scam. China is melting the 400 oz good delivery bars it gets and recasting them into metric bars (kilo?).

The good thing about the tungsten filled story is that it always seems to turn up when gold is going to go for a run. LOL... the conspiracy is that they'd like to spook physical buyers more than anything IMO!

Oh yeah... and I have yet to see a 400 oz bar full of tungsten, only these small bars... show me a room full of those and then I will reconsider the CB story


----------



## Joules MM1

Mr Z said:


> I know a guy that refined gold and silver professionally, he says that it would be VERY hard to tungsten fill a bar in such a fashion that it is not obvious to the experienced eye. Also, very often when you sell a bar back to a mint it is  on a melt and assay basis, I can't see a CB taking any less a precaution and I can't see them being caught by what is essentially a retail level scam. China is melting the 400 oz good delivery bars it gets and recasting them into metric bars (kilo?).
> 
> The good thing about the tungsten filled story is that it always seems to turn up when gold is going to go for a run. LOL... the conspiracy is that they'd like to spook physical buyers more than anything IMO!
> 
> Oh yeah... and I have yet to see a 400 oz bar full of tungsten, only these small bars... show me a room full of those and then I will reconsider the CB story




+1

memory serves, the earlier tungsten-filled thriller has been debunked.....i'll dig out the story.....


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> memory serves,




think i posted this already......

http://www.businessinsider.com/tung...tton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=moneygame

and this

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/25/the-problem-of-fake-gold-bars/
excerpt


> Update: Thanks to smart comments from BronSuchecki and Tim Worstall. I forgot that gold is actually used, once in a while, to make things like jewels ”” which means that bars are melted down pretty frequently. If there was a significant number of salted bars out there, we’d know about it, since you’d notice when one of them got melted down. Which isn’t to say that there are no salted bars at all, but it certainly does seem to imply that there’s nowhere near 1.3 million of them.


----------



## tygablu

Hey folks Newb question here, is anyone expecting a decent shake off on gold any time soon or will we just see minor pull backs and continued upwards movement upto that 5G mark.  5G, for real???? consensus on when????


----------



## Uncle Festivus

tygablu said:


> Hey folks Newb question here, is anyone expecting a decent shake off on gold any time soon or will we just see minor pull backs and continued upwards movement upto that 5G mark.  5G, for real???? consensus on when????




5G @ 04:23 GMT 03 March 2013


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tygablu said:


> Hey folks Newb question here, is anyone expecting a decent shake off on gold any time soon or will we just see minor pull backs and continued upwards movement upto that 5G mark.  5G, for real???? consensus on when????




I am bullish on Gold as long as it can hold above 1750. I have taken a buy off the daily at 1777.10. still in a strong up trend with a pin bar off the 21 ema on the 26th /09 leading to a bullish engulfing. had two tests of 1777 top with the inside higher low the set up to the long i took this morning. a reverse below my stop at 1761 will be a plan changer for me. a close above 1777 is a positive sign imo for further upside.


----------



## young-gun

tygablu said:


> Hey folks Newb question here, is anyone expecting a decent shake off on gold any time soon or will we just see minor pull backs and continued upwards movement upto that 5G mark.  5G, for real???? consensus on when????




5G will be a stepping stone, you can't put a time on it, although i wish festivus all the best on his exact guess, I mean calculated estimate


----------



## Joules MM1

http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/10/qe-inflation-stocks-gold.html

excerpt



> ....Fed’s QE policies have succeeded in boosting inflationary expectations as measured by the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the comparable TIPS yield. Indeed, this spread is highly correlated with both the S&P 500 stock price index and the forward P/E of the S&P 500. The spread peaked at a high so far this year of 2.64% on September 14, matching the QE2 peak on April 8, 2011. It dipped back down a bit to 2.42% yesterday.




with piccies


----------



## Joules MM1

futures television.....oh my.....

gold or stocks? video

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000119693


----------



## tygablu

Uncle Festivus said:


> 5G @ 04:23 GMT 03 March 2013




WOOOOOW that is outstanding dont suppose ya'd know when I'll win lotto, and will I get that girl of my dreams??? lmfao, like ya style Uncle.  Shake off thoughts???


----------



## Joules MM1

Wednesday, October 3, 2012
*As real rates hit another record low, speculative gold positions spike *

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/as-real-rates-hit-another-low.html




excerpt



> That was 2.4 standard deviations above the one year average.


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> Wednesday, October 3, 2012
> *As real rates hit another record low, speculative gold positions spike *
> 
> http://soberlook.com/2012/10/as-real-rates-hit-another-low.html
> 
> View attachment 49193
> 
> 
> excerpt




Looks like everyone was watching CNBC Joules!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Looks like everyone was watching CNBC Joules!




yup, it's hold-em time.

if gold can break the 1790&1805 short term highs, next target for me is 1889+


----------



## CanOz

>Apocalypto< said:


> yup, it's hold-em time.
> 
> if gold can break the 1790&1805 short term highs, next target for me is 1889+




Looking for a breakout setup on GLD...175.47


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Looking for a breakout setup on GLD...175.47




some solid selling at 1795.... closed my long.


----------



## CanOz

>Apocalypto< said:


> some solid selling at 1795.... closed my long.




Missed my chance to put my order in last night....pullback coming?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Missed my chance to put my order in last night....pullback coming?





i may have jumped out a little early as it held up ok... still having issues at that area though. i am also on the waiting line for the next signal.


----------



## Trademyshoes

>Apocalypto< said:


> i may have jumped out a little early as it held up ok... still having issues at that area though. i am also on the waiting line for the next signal.




You must have the gift of foresight - you closed your long due to heavy selling at 1795... You closed right at the beginning of the up-trend being negated for the hourly and a down-trend being formed. Great job imo - great pick.

The daily trending up of Gold has not been negated as of yet, though is becoming quite stagnant, but confidence in the Us markets for the short term has led me to believe we will see a pullback, minor as it may be. In turn, for the short term, I don't see a 1800+ breakout. 

I'd love to hear some opinions on this...


----------



## jimy

Hiii..

Check gold prices from the below link...

http://goldprice.org/


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trademyshoes said:


> You must have the gift of foresight - you closed your long due to heavy selling at 1795... You closed right at the beginning of the up-trend being negated for the hourly and a down-trend being formed. Great job imo - great pick.
> 
> I'd love to hear some opinions on this...




it was one of those gut feelings, as I watched struggle with a break out after two attempts. Also luck.

I agree daily uptrend still in tact, but now waiting on confirmation of a signal to renter long again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm not sure if a global recession will be favorable for gold, especially if (when) equities take a tumble with the start of the next leg of the (global) bear market. The DX might start to look good again so gold weakness ahead until the tipping point......


----------



## CanOz

Gold's a bit on the nose lately...was looking to enter on the ETF, i guess this is a nice pullback but would be nice for a little place to jump on...

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

They have had a lot of fun gaming/frontrunning/second guessing/hoping equities of late but probably wont take much to spook 'the market' into 'taking profits'?

Rotation back into 'safety' of the USD? Gold likes to be correlated with equities for all but the worst of conditions so continued weakness, again??


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Gold's a bit on the nose lately...was looking to enter on the ETF, i guess this is a nice pullback but would be nice for a little place to jump on...
> 
> CanOz




gold paper traders have absolutely no backbone.....who wants to get caught with no yield paper? all that energy wash-out from central banks was used several days ago which wasnt hard to see in the COT report via swaps dealers still at 2:1 short.....dont be in a rush mate.....oh, just wait for all the cupnhandle boffs to start their commentary......lulz......


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> gold paper traders have absolutely no backbone.....who wants to get caught with no yield paper? all that energy wash-out from central banks was used several days ago which wasnt hard to see in the COT report via swaps dealers still at 2:1 short.....dont be in a rush mate.....oh, just wait for all the cupnhandle boffs to start their commentary......lulz......




Lol, I didn't even notice the cup until you mentioned it!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Lol, I didn't even notice the cup until you mentioned it!




daily gold is in a short term down trend to me. 1694, 1670 and 1630 pos targets... another solid lower high will give some merit to these targets. i'm still 50/50 on the true direction at this point.


----------



## Joules MM1

.......extensive (11 pages) compared to prev posts on the subject:


 Oct. 20, 2012, 9:01 a.m. EDT
*10 nations that control the world’s gold*

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-nations-that-control-the-worlds-gold-2012-10-20?pagenumber=1


----------



## Joules MM1

not that he's (cough) biased......

*Change in spread management by bullion banks will send gold prices to $3,500-12,400* says Jim Sinclair

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-si...ir/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

excerpt



> ....explains: ‘You must note how central banks are either buying or protecting their gold reserve positions now. This is total about face two years ago. There is another change coming which is a replacement monetary system and the need for some asset on central bank’s balance sheets to have positive value, especially in the USA. Soon all that is required is a change in spread management by the gold banks and you will have whatever price the gold banks want from $3,500 to $12,400.’


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> .......extensive (11 pages) compared to prev posts on the subject:
> 
> 
> Oct. 20, 2012, 9:01 a.m. EDT
> *10 nations that control the world’s gold*
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-nations-that-control-the-worlds-gold-2012-10-20?pagenumber=1




Tis all for nought if you believe the numbers as presented.......



> It should be no surprise that the U.S. is the largest holder of gold as the dollar is the global reserve currency and the U.S. has by far the largest GDP of any nation. The growth of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet can only be sustained without dire consequences if it is backed by hard assets like gold. *Imagine if the conspiracy theorists are right and that Fort Knox and other repositories do not have gold in them*.




The US gold inventory has not been updated/changed for the last 6 years?? (Well it has increased by a massive 27 oz in 4 years....)

http://fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html

Why would an insolvent country keep something it can sell to solve it's debt problems - same for any other indebted country.

The big concern for gold believers is the IMF (and ECB) holdings - if they change their rules and give the go ahead to dump in return for USD's to fund bail-outs then it's going to take a big hit??


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-...pass-total-ecb-holdings-imports-australia-sur
*
Chinese Gold Imports Through August Surpass Total ECB Holdings, Imports From Australia Surge 900%*

10/21/2012 16:21 -0400


----------



## tinhat

Uncle Festivus said:


> Tis all for nought if you believe the numbers as presented.......
> 
> Why would an insolvent country keep something it can sell to solve it's debt problems - same for any other indebted country.




What a strange statement? Do you think the USA is still on the gold standard? US government public debt is over $11 trillion (total US government debt is over $16 trillion).

At $1,700 an ounce, the total US government gold reserves are worth less than half a trillion dollars (around $440 billion). That represents about 4% of the debt which is inconsequential really.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

tinhat said:


> What a strange statement? Do you think the USA is still on the gold standard?




Um...no.



tinhat said:


> US government public debt is over $11 trillion (total US government debt is over $16 trillion).
> At $1,700 an ounce, the total US government gold reserves are worth less than half a trillion dollars (around $440 billion). That represents about 4% of the debt which is inconsequential really.




That's the scary problem then. The perception is that they have all of this gold as some sort of back up to the currency or whatever when it doesn't even scratch the surface as a means of solving their debt problems. 

I wasn't implying that selling their gold would fix ALL the debt problems as your maths has illustrated, but I was implying that there is some sort of faith in the currency because of the perceived 'backing' of gold in the cellar of the NY Fed, which may or may not actually be there??


----------



## tinhat

Uncle Festivus said:


> That's the scary problem then. The perception is that they have all of this gold as some sort of back up to the currency or whatever when it doesn't even scratch the surface as a means of solving their debt problems.




That's the thing - the numbers are so astronomical that they don't make any sense to the human mind or even the scale of the physical world around us. The circumference of the world is only 40,000 km. In metres that's 40 million metres. In centimetres that's 4 billion centimetres. In millimetres that's 40 billion millimetres.

There is an estimate that there are around 400 billion trees on the entire planet earth.

The distance to the edge of the observable universe is only around 46 billion light years. The universe itself is only 13.75 billion years old.

Some amount that is tens of billions of units of reasonable scale in the natural world is freaking huge, yet in the abstract world of hyperinflating money a few hundred billion is nothing.


----------



## zac

tinhat said:


> Some amount that is tens of billions of units of reasonable scale in the natural world is freaking huge, yet in the abstract world of hyperinflating money a few hundred billion is nothing.




Yes its rather funny how numbers are thrown around these days.
To put it in perspective another way if 1 second of time was equal to $1, the following would be the case.

1 Million Dollars = 11.5 Days
1 Billion Dollars = 32 Years
1 Trillion Dollars = 32 000 Years

Amazing considering 1 million which we'd all love and be content with is a mere week and a bit but 1 trillion is almost as long as the entire time human civilisation has been around.

Yet the US debt isnt 1 trillion its over 16 Trillion


----------



## Joules MM1

here ya go, have a yap on this lot

http://au.news.yahoo.com/queensland...erfeit-aussie-gold-sold-in-china/?cmp=twitter

*Counterfeit Aussie gold sold in China*

Mike Duffy, October 22, 2012, 6:13 pm


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Speaking of knowing who has what..........



> Germany's central bank has failed to properly oversee the country's massive gold reserves, which have been stored abroad since the Cold War in case of a Soviet invasion, independent auditors say.
> 
> The central bank must renegotiate its contracts to gain the right to inspect its gold bars, which are worth tens of billions of dollars and are stored in the United States, Britain and France, the Federal Auditors' Office said in a report to lawmakers obtained by The Associated Press on Monday.




Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/1...ntrol-gold-reserves-held-in-us/#ixzz2A3W8BeIv


----------



## Joules MM1

Monday, October 22, 2012





*With speculative money exiting, central bank actions should provide support for precious metals* 

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/with-speculative-money-exiting-central.html

excerpt



> This may be a bullish sign for precious metals, particularly gold. With the start of an unprecedented open-ended monetary expansion by the Fed last week (see post), the accumulation of excess reserves by the banking system will increase inflation expectations. And as a number of other central banks (BOE, BOJ, ECB, etc.) pursue similar policies, precious metals prices are likely to see some support. Certainly the heavily negative real dollar rates (see post) across the curve make any rate product and cash far less attractive on a relative basis.


----------



## Mr Z

Bron, would you care to comment on this one?

http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/15182799/counterfeit-aussie-gold-sold-in-china/

http://www.silverdoctors.com/300-fa...ia-as-chinese-gold-forgery-factory-uncovered/

.... someone post a link if it has been done! I am old and lazy


----------



## Mr Z

LOL... I just found the seven news piece. Gold plated, I can't believe that they'd fool anyone! They are openly selling them as fake by the looks of it! The gold blogosphere, will no doubt turn this into a tungsten filled nightmare 

As they say in Bali, you want to buy a Rolex? Genuine copy!


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c1361b0-1dd1-11e2-8e1d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2AJ7NdDZe

October 24, 2012 7:26 pm

*Chinese miner closer to* [74%]* Barrick Gold deal*

By Helen Thomas in London and Leslie Hook in Beijing

excerpt





> “China’s appetite for gold seems to be growing,” said Jake Greenberg, mining specialist at Jefferies, pointing to China Gold’s interest in African Barrick, Zijin Mining’s A$180m (US$186m) offer for Australia’s Norton Gold Fields and Shandong Gold’s A$228m acquisition of a 51 per cent stake in Australia’s Focus Minerals


----------



## Joules MM1

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/is-barrick-gold-a-buy-after-earnings.html/



> The supply side of gold is also bullish. A new extensive study was recently conducted by James Turk, the founder and chairman of GoldMoney, along with the assistance of Juan Castaneda, who has a PhD in Economics and currently teaches at the University of Buckingham in the United Kingdom. The study analyzes data between 1492 and 2011 to conclude that official estimates of the world’s gold stock is overstated by 10.3 percent. Turk estimates that the world gold stock at the end of 2011 was 155,244 tonnes, or 16,056 tonnes below the commonly used World Gold Council estimate.


----------



## burglar

OMG PoG just dropped $32


----------



## Mr Z

4 cast --->

USDX ~85.5

Gold ~ lower 1600's

*BUY THE DIP!*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> 4 cast --->
> 
> USDX ~85.5
> 
> Gold ~ lower 1600's
> 
> *BUY THE DIP!*




Or dips?

I'm still bearish, at least until, firstly, gold ceases to be correlated with US equities and the approaching sell-off, and secondly until the USD is finally seen as an unbacked IOU, which may still be several <timespans> away??


----------



## Joules MM1

lulz....the irony of bad timing by an uber (fill in the blank).....erm....how about 'death cross'?
--------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/1... final streetwise-reports 11/02/2012 15:18:11

*Some Incredible Gold Charts*

Source: Peter Degraaf, Itiswell  (11/2/12) 



> The pattern is called: 'Golden Cross', or 'Bull Cross'. Here is a chart (all charts courtesy Stockcharts.com unless specified), that has a blue arrow pointing to the pattern we are referring to.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mostly for the doubters..........explains a few things.

http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=194

See also

http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=196


----------



## young-gun

Uncle Festivus said:


> Mostly for the doubters..........explains a few things.
> 
> http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=194




great article, straight to the point. I just wish I had more cash to buy more gold(and silver).


----------



## Joules MM1

Friday, November 9, 2012
*Gold lagging previous QE cycles but DB remains bullish *




excerpt


> .....difference in this monetary expansion cycle from the previous ones is that the new program is having a fairly slow start in terms of its impact on base money.







http://soberlook.com/2012/11/gold-lagging-previous-qe-cycles-but-db.html

etc etc


----------



## Mr Z

It is displacing contracting credit, it will bite sooner or later, money velocity is the key measure.


----------



## Joules MM1

the bearish news and some bullish thinking

http://blog.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/bearish-and-bullish-news-on-gold-9084

*
Bearish and Bullish News on Gold*

by Sean Brodrick on November 15, 2012


----------



## Mr Z

Lazza


----------



## GoldMan2012

hmm...gold price


----------



## zac

I read a report just earlier. One thing I never considered was option writers.
Apparently theres a number of 1750 calls with this week expiry.
So should the 1750 level be breached apparently this will mean lots of buying to cover the calls.

Not sure how much influence that would have on the overall scheme of things but I thought interesting nonetheless.


----------



## GoldMan2012

:rolleyes


----------



## Mr Z

zac said:


> I read a report just earlier. One thing I never considered was option writers.
> Apparently theres a number of 1750 calls with this week expiry.
> So should the 1750 level be breached apparently this will mean lots of buying to cover the calls.
> 
> Not sure how much influence that would have on the overall scheme of things but I thought interesting nonetheless.




It is a monthly thing, they push the price short term to get the options positions to work for them, they are also used to generate liquidity to sell into. i.e. Sell a bunch of puts, short the contract into them and get as many exercised as you can. The geeks get into some really complex setups with options, not at all simple to analyze! It is all gravy if you are big enough to move the market in the short term.  

--> Silver is looking shiny for now! Impressive strength relative to gold.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...+JessesCafeAmericain+(Jesse's+Café+Américain)

28 November 2012
*Bear Raid In Gold and Silver After Option Expiration 
*
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/comex-open-saw-24-tonnes-of-paper-gold.html

28 November 2012
*Comex Open Saw 24 Tonnes of Paper Gold Dumped at Market - Sharks, with Laser Beams *


----------



## GoldMan2012

GoldMan2012 said:


> :rolleyes


----------



## GoldMan2012

Grrrrr....


----------



## Joules MM1

minimalism 

corn:


----------



## StevieY

Hi All,

Can I just some thoughts on Gold ETFs? Am not sure if its better to buy the code: QAU or GOLD. 

I do have some gold mining stocks but thought I get some ETFs as well.

Thanks
Steve


----------



## young-gun

StevieY said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Can I just some thoughts on Gold ETFs? Am not sure if its better to buy the code: QAU or GOLD.
> 
> I do have some gold mining stocks but thought I get some ETFs as well.
> 
> Thanks
> Steve




If it isn't bullion, you don't own it


----------



## StevieY

young-gun said:


> If it isn't bullion, you don't own it





Thanks young gun. was looking at trades and short term hold.


----------



## Joules MM1

*ZeroHedge: Hidden Dangers in Gold*
Posted by silveristhenew on December 7, 2012 

http://silveristhenew.com/2012/12/07/hidden-dangers-in-gold/

DSTM, ok: balance


----------



## kid hustlr

StevieY said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Can I just some thoughts on Gold ETFs? Am not sure if its better to buy the code: QAU or GOLD.
> 
> I do have some gold mining stocks but thought I get some ETFs as well.
> 
> Thanks
> Steve




Depends on your goals. GOLD is unhedged whereas QAU is. Will play a big factor.


----------



## StevieY

kid hustlr said:


> Depends on your goals. GOLD is unhedged whereas QAU is. Will play a big factor.




Hi kid hustir, can you explain why QAU which is hedged (am assuming against the AUD$) may be better (or worse)? 

Thanks

Steve


----------



## kid hustlr

StevieY said:


> Hi kid hustir, can you explain why QAU which is hedged (am assuming against the AUD$) may be better (or worse)?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> Steve




well the hedged option (QAU) will mean you can wake up every morning and simply look at the gold price to see how your investments are performing, the unhedged (GOLD) means that you have the added exchange rate risk involved.

As an example in recent years although the gold price has performed very well, so has the AUD and as such offset some of these gains if you held an unhedged position in gold here in Australia. Off the top of my head I would think QAU has outperformed GOLD by quite a lot in recent years.

One could make arguments either way about which investment option is the stronger one.


----------



## StevieY

kid hustlr said:


> well the hedged option (QAU) will mean you can wake up every morning and simply look at the gold price to see how your investments are performing, the unhedged (GOLD) means that you have the added exchange rate risk involved.
> 
> As an example in recent years although the gold price has performed very well, so has the AUD and as such offset some of these gains if you held an unhedged position in gold here in Australia. Off the top of my head I would think QAU has outperformed GOLD by quite a lot in recent years.
> 
> One could make arguments either way about which investment option is the stronger one.




Ok...

GOLD ETF = Gold price + risk from exchange rate as it's based on USD$.

QAU ETF = Gold price in AUD$

So, in order to make a profit in GOLD ETF, the Gold Price must go up and and the AUD$ must fall against the USD$?

Hope I got that right. 

Thanks again!

Cheers,
Steve


----------



## drillinto

Gold and the 200-day moving average

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/12/18/gold-testing-200-day-moving-average.html
***


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Interesting shenanigans in gold, again - 'renowned' whistleblower spills the beans.......

(From Joules, on another thread, with reference to another forum......)



> Today renowned silver market whistleblower Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News about the state of the physical gold market and said that several billion dollars of paper selling from government agents was used to smash the gold price yesterday.  Here is what whistleblower Maguire had to say:  “Gold is actually a currency, and it’s (the gold market is) intervened (in) by the government agents, which are the bullion banks.  Yesterday, clearly they (the bullion banks) sold gold in defense of the dollar.”
> 
> Maguire continues:
> 
> “Keep in mind that $3.5 billion of paper gold was actually cleared in London yesterday.  This selling was coordinated by the same bullion banks that are also active in the Comex.  At the same time, they are rigging enough of a decline to cover shorts into capitulating longs on the Comex market.
> 
> But the Eastern central banks are simply sitting back and allowing this defense of the dollar to occur.  They know what’s going on....




http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/19_Whistleblower_-_$3.5_Billion_Of_Paper_Used_To_Smash_Gold_Price.html

So it stands to reason that a good chunk of the fresh QE would go towards the playtime games of the 'fiat defenders' dogsbodies?

So do we just lay back and think of England (or the LBMA to be more precise) and wait for the explosion higher when all the games are done?


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting shenanigans in gold, again - 'renowned' whistleblower spills the beans.......
> 
> 
> So it stands to reason that a good chunk of the fresh QE would go towards the playtime games of the 'fiat defenders' dogsbodies?
> 
> So do we just lay back and think of England (or the LBMA to be more precise) and wait for the explosion higher when all the games are done?




i think it's important to keep in mind that first one cannot beat the supply/demand equation and two when there are simply more active sellers than exhausted buyers a substantial decline can ensue....while that's true a group of like-minded traders can pick their spots to lean on price in either direction......as it's a fair-go fair-game auction process both camps get to play ball it's just who can best run the numbers or interpret the quickest and proactively trades with that interpretation......afterall, least ways from my pov, we're jsut seeing money chase money in both directions.....

thanks for the convo, Uncle and seasons goodness to you ....looking forward to another rocketing incline soon


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> So do we just lay back and think of England (or the LBMA to be more precise) and wait for the explosion higher when all the games are done?




Uuuuummmmm?  You'd really hope that it a retorical question.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> i think it's important to keep in mind that first one cannot beat the supply/demand equation and two when there are simply more active sellers than exhausted buyers a substantial decline can ensue....while that's true a group of like-minded traders can pick their spots to lean on price in either direction......as it's a fair-go fair-game auction process both camps get to play ball it's just who can best run the numbers or interpret the quickest and proactively trades with that interpretation......afterall, least ways from my pov, we're jsut seeing money chase money in both directions.....
> 
> thanks for the convo, Uncle and seasons goodness to you ....looking forward to another rocketing incline soon




And to you and all the best of luck for what promises to be a make or break year coming up? Is it a co-incidence that it also marks the centenary of the US Federal Reserve, under who's stewardship the value of a dollar has lost nearly 100% of it's 'value'?

A rocketing incline eh? A woody would be nice too......instead of waterfalls....depends which way your bet is??
__________________________________________________________

█████ ████ everything ███ █████ is█████ ████ fine ████ ███ ██████ love █████ █ your █ ████ government.


----------



## DB008

Didn't know which thread to put this in, but this is pretty interesting.
2 minute vid. 

BBC




> A rare look inside a Swiss gold refinery
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20797917


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Crack-pot or hero?

http://mayanmajix.com/art526.html

Conspiracies, Senator Wellstone death 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Vbf49kzWFw

& religious influence on America .....


----------



## tech/a

You gold bugs short?

Gold getting smashed


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> You gold bugs short?
> 
> Gold getting smashed




Last Fed minutes indicated that they could take away the punch bowl...


----------



## FlyingFox

Uncle Festivus said:


> Crack-pot or hero?
> 
> http://mayanmajix.com/art526.html
> 
> Conspiracies, Senator Wellstone death
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Vbf49kzWFw
> 
> & religious influence on America .....




Add another one to the list

http://etfdailynews.com/2013/01/03/...-possible-price-of-gold-gld-slv-iau-sgol-ugl/

I find it quite surprising not to mention alarming that no one has actually seen the gold in Fort Knox let alone audited it in the last 60 years.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

FlyingFox said:


> Add another one to the list
> 
> http://etfdailynews.com/2013/01/03/...-possible-price-of-gold-gld-slv-iau-sgol-ugl/
> 
> I find it quite surprising not to mention alarming that no one has actually seen the gold in Fort Knox let alone audited it in the last 60 years.




Good point.

I have 20oz of Perth bars buried in garpalgarden, that I bought many years ago with a lotto win. Just in case the whole world ever goes to crap.

They have been as low as $12000 and as high as $32000, as they are now, I suspect they will retreat to $20000 before the end of 2013. But I'm happy holding them in case the bad guys come through our porous borders.

gg


----------



## FlyingFox

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Good point.
> 
> I have 20oz of Perth bars buried in garpalgarden, that I bought many years ago with a lotto win. Just in case the whole world ever goes to crap.
> 
> .......
> 
> gg




Hahahahaha....that put a smile on my face. Reminded me of something my grandfather would do/did. Or perhaps under the mattress.


----------



## explod

An interesting correlation between the US debt limit and the gold price.

http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-metals/tom-cloud-the-pieces-are-in-place-for-a-gold-rally/

Looks like we are heading for US$2,000 gold soon.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Looks like we are heading for US$2,000 gold soon.




 is that not the same "soon" we have been in for the last 2 years? Could ya define that soon for us?

Delussion and dreams aside,

Possible absorption Friday. Good swing trade from here given a move upwards "soon". Good for a hundgie over next month? pick ya stop a bit lower than the last Fridays.




Same trade/pattern with this paper weight (or should that be "wait"),


----------



## explod

The action will determine the time.

Of the five chart pennants since 2001 all broke out to the upside.  The current one is at that point where it has to go one way or the other within a month or two. 

Will this sixth one break to the downside, could but with the currency war now on us, Japan now into it, an upside break will not be far away in my view.   Average breakouts through previous tops have been about 25% so could see US$2,500 for this next one.  April would not surprise me.

No value in guesses though, we will see.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

explod said:


> The action will determine the time.
> 
> Of the five chart pennants since 2001 all broke out to the upside.  The current one is at that point where it has to go one way or the other within a month or two.
> 
> Will this sixth one break to the downside, could but with the currency war now on us, Japan now into it, an upside break will not be far away in my view.   Average breakouts through previous tops have been about 25% so could see US$2,500 for this next one.  April would not surprise me.
> 
> No value in guesses though, we will see.




This is a kitco chart since 2000, to now.

It looks a bit toppy to me.




If you put a gun to my head I'd say it will retreat.

gg


----------



## Trembling Hand

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It looks a bit toppy to me.




Have you seen the chart of funny money?


----------



## Lone Wolf

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This is a kitco chart since 2000, to now.
> 
> It looks a bit toppy to me.




Out of interest - Would you have said the same back when the chart looked like this?


----------



## explod

Some good points raised.  Look at Japan their debt per head is now ridiculous but still they hold on by producing more paper.

The system could be a long way from the Weimar republic scenario for some time and gold kept in check.  The US got a big shock in the collapse first of the Dot com, the property market but in particular the near seizure of money flow and near full collapse of the banks in 08, so they will get those presses stalling it all to the bitter end now.

However the debt figures of Obama's regime approaching the round figure of 20 trillion could start to sink in to more minds this year as that mark will be approached. The debt has virtually doubled since George Bush jn. left the scene.

On the chart gg. the proportion of the older pennants become lost in the shadow of each larger one.  Though have to admit the overall trend appears to be exponential.  However a glance at the 1970 to 1980 chart will show that the current one still looks tame.  Is it different this time or worse? worth a ponder.  Will locate and post up some charts to bring it into perspective for us tomorrow *if I can.*


----------



## explod

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This is a kitco chart since 2000, to now.
> 
> It looks a bit toppy to me.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If you put a gun to my head I'd say it will retreat.
> 
> gg




Gg., this one give the overall picture including the 1980 spike.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgmonth.html

The current trend from 2000 looks fairly steady IMV and certainly not the steep ascent of 1979

And this the complete current one:

http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/gold98-l.html

The charts in two year blocks detailing  the respective upside breaks are not available from the web-page due to technical problems and should be back in about a week.  So keep an eye on this space.

For the charts thus displayed I wish to acknowledge ":The Privateer" newsletter.  http://www.the-privateer.com/gold.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Possible absorption Friday. Good swing trade from here given a move upwards "soon". Good for a hundgie over next month? pick ya stop a bit lower than the last Fridays.




Bit of support building but no move yet.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Bit of support building but no move yet.




Pssst! Risk on! Patience?

Still think the next major move will be down, unless/until the usual caveats......debt ceiling will be avoided/increased, kick the can a bit longer.

Japan now joining the slush funds printing (even) more money....step right up, where it goes nobody knows - well we do actually....

Some talk of a Yen carry into gold - if they only had 1% in gold it would explode yada yada - where have we heard that before?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Uncle Festivus said:


> Pssst! Risk on! Patience?
> 
> Still think the next major move will be down, unless/until the usual caveats......debt ceiling will be avoided/increased, kick the can a bit longer.
> 
> Japan now joining the slush funds printing (even) more money....step right up, where it goes nobody knows - well we do actually....
> 
> Some talk of a Yen carry into gold - if they only had 1% in gold it would explode yada yada - where have we heard that before?




Agree Uncle.

gg


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Pssst! Risk on! Patience?
> 
> Still think the next major move will be down, unless/until the usual caveats......debt ceiling will be avoided/increased, kick the can a bit longer.




Oh... Too late. Buy stops triggered,


----------



## notting

Can't imagine who was buying gold last night.....
Did any one come out with a slightly more honest reading on their inflation today?
Oh yes, and Saudi Arabia has cut oil production substantially, moving to fend off a growing overhang in world oil supply.
Not good for further inflation in China which is heavily geared to the price of oil.


----------



## DB008

REPORT: GERMANY TO REPATRIATE GOLD FROM US, FRANCE



> BERLIN (AP) -- Germany's central bank will repatriate some of its massive gold reserves stored in vaults in the United States and in France, a business daily reported Tuesday.
> 
> The Bundesbank's overall reserves of 3,400 tons are worth about $200 billion at current market rates.
> 
> The central bank now plans to bring back to Germany some of the 1,500 tons of gold stored in the vaults of the Federal Reserve in New York, and all of the 450 tons currently stashed with the Bank of France in Paris, according to Handelsblatt.
> 
> The central bank declined to comment on the report but on Wednesday will present a new plan to manage the gold reserves of 270,000 gold bars, the world's second-largest stockpile trailing only the U.S. reserves.




http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GERMANY_GOLD_RESERVES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT


----------



## notting

DB008 said:


> REPORT: GERMANY TO REPATRIATE GOLD FROM US, FRANCE




Looks like they have finally decided to invade Greece.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Moving along in the right direction. Stops nudged up a bit.


----------



## kid hustlr

still long TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> still long TH?




Yep probably be in till the stops taken out.


----------



## notting

This guys short stops where at 1678ish

An interesting conversation between fundamentals and technical, especially as some of the hypothesis have played out already.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000136594


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nice recovery?


----------



## Porper

Uncle Festivus said:


> Nice recovery?
> 
> View attachment 50541




Yes, your chart is very dramatic but means nothing. The Dow has actually gone up over 16.0% from the high on your chart...and that's including the so called crash.

Robert Prechters mob (Elliott Wave guru's) often post the chart in Gold to prove they were/are correct with their very bearish view...similar to yours;the end is nigh brigade. Last time I checked they were talking Dow below 1000...and they don't often (if ever) admit they are wrong. What's your prediction Uncle? Dow sub 1000? You'll be lucky if you see 10,000 ever again.


----------



## notting

The hard part with gold is that on one hand you have the positive value perception trade Vs inflation/money printing.
However you also have the safe haven trade coming off.
It's hard to know which was the major driver behind it's recent 10 year run.

It's had a good couple of weeks on the back of Japanese inflation hopes.
That trade is now priced in so where it goes now is not clear fundamentally.

We can technically note that it has bounced nicely off a recent 61.8 retrace.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Porper said:


> You'll be lucky if you see 10,000 ever again.




I'll keep that one for the archives 

It was mainly to highlight the illusion of 'wealth' created with the current standard of 'value'?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nice 'bubble'?


----------



## notting

I may be imagining things but I think there is an interesting interplay going on between, gold, Yen and US$.

Yen was highly shorted and expected to tank against US upon pre announcement of the new 2% inflation target.
The official announcement did not have the desired effect for the shorters, in fact, the yen gained against the US suprising alot of people and gold stopped it's upward stagger and started down.

Now Yen has started slipping agianst the US so gold could turn back up too and test that 1700

I guess you could call it inflation perception trade.


----------



## explod

Once talk begins to stir on possible rises in interest rates the fox will be in with the chook's.

From Harvey Organ overnight:-



> Russia’s Central Bank said it will continue to buy gold bullion as it seeks to diversify its foreign reserves away from paper assets, such as the euro, it views as more risky.
> At Davos, George Soros, one of the largest buyers of gold in the world today, warned of currency wars and that “interest rates are going to take a big leap” - probably this year.
> Bank of America warned of a “bond crash” comparable to 1994 that would trigger a string of upsets across the world. In 1994, the bond crash bankrupted Orange Country, California, and set off the Tequila Crisis in Mexico.
> Today, the world is much more fragile and the increasingly likely bond crash could lead to a Lehman style systemic crisis – but on an even greater scale.
> These risks and the recent price drop has fuelled buying interest in physical metal and a minority of smart money gold buyers continue to diversify into allocated gold on the dip .




http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/


----------



## notting

I'm not taking any significant positions on gold whilst it remains murky.

The fact that there has been a flow into high yield which is often the case when bull markets start does not bode well for a commodity that does nothing and pays nothing.

People will look next for growth stocks and that has started as well.
Like Apple having nothing wrong with it* other than the lack of a future kick butt new product gold could be treated in a similar way in the short term.

Also the inflation bond bubble play has been in play for years now - priced in.

You could argue a case for a drop to production cost levels.

On the bullish side some say just take off the last nine digits from the US debt and you have the gold price!
Some say when they lift the debt ceiling gold will go with it!

If gold stays below it's 200 day moving average for more than a few days, you'd wanna be careful.
It's tested it once retraced and has now poked it's toe below again.

Ausi gold miners will be great short targets because of the high Au$.

NCM is a higher beta mover than the gold price and is worth keeping an eye on for sentiment.

So there is little clarity at this moment.


*Apart from being hated for blatantly charging people hundreds of $$$$ for pultry $10 cost addditons like 8 more Gigs on a phone.  Negative sentiment builds up and you end up paying!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

explod said:


> Once talk begins to stir on possible rises in interest rates the fox will be in with the chook's.
> 
> From Harvey Organ overnight:-
> 
> 
> 
> http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/






notting said:


> I'm not taking any significant positions on gold whilst it remains murky.
> 
> The fact that there has been a flow into high yield which is often the case when bull markets start does not bode well for a commodity that does nothing and pays nothing.
> 
> People will look next for growth stocks and that has started as well.
> Like Apple having nothing wrong with it* other than the lack of a future kick butt new product gold could be treated in a similar way in the short term.
> 
> Also the inflation bond bubble play has been in play for years now - priced in.
> 
> You could argue a case for a drop to production cost levels.
> 
> On the bullish side some say just take off the last nine digits from the US debt and you have the gold price!
> Some say when they lift the debt ceiling gold will go with it!
> 
> If gold stays below it's 200 day moving average for more than a few days, you'd wanna be careful.
> It's tested it once retraced and has now poked it's toe below again.
> 
> Ausi gold miners will be great short targets because of the high Au$.
> 
> But there is little clarity at this moment.
> 
> 
> *Apart from being hated for blatantly charging people hundreds of $$$$ for pultry $10 cost addditons like 8 more Gigs on a phone.  Negative sentiment builds up and you end up paying!




Thanks guys,

My only exposure to gold are some bars buried in the garden.

I find Gold impossible to understand as there are so many players with disparate and often crazy agendas.

Should the Indons or Chinese get sufficiently pissed off with us, it will give me great pleasure to have "Time Team" in 2000 years find my loot.

gg


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Spot pulled a real ring a ding ding.... got em all short then tried to dust em out. followed up by a roll the buying crowd! two hours is dumped 15$ that would have been a fun ride


----------



## notting

Getten Sqeezy, something’s gotta give.
Slightly bullish divergence.


----------



## Mr Z

Until the USDX breaks lower DECISIVELY it will pay to be gold wary. 84 ~ 85 is still possible on the USDX, until that move plays out OR the USDX breaks DECISIVELY lower gold is under pressure. Gold is due a BIG rally here BUT the odds are still favoring the bears in the near term. This could play out into April and turn "Sell in May" on its head this year.... Vatching Vaiting.... What a PITA is has been BUT I don't think we are quite there yet... possible gold fake out dead ahead, if so BUY IT!!!! JMO.


----------



## hobo-jo

If anyone is interested, there is a petition set up online to bring home Austrlia's Gold reserves, a very worth cause:

http://www.petitionbuzz.com/petitions/aussiegold

I've written a press release on the topic, so if anyone knows journalists who may like to cover or a politician who would take up the cause then please pass this link on to them:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/124737694/Australians-Seek-Gold-Repatriation-Bring-Home-Our-Gold


----------



## banco

hobo-jo said:


> If anyone is interested, there is a petition set up online to bring home Austrlia's Gold reserves, a very worth cause:
> 
> http://www.petitionbuzz.com/petitions/aussiegold
> 
> I've written a press release on the topic, so if anyone knows journalists who may like to cover or a politician who would take up the cause then please pass this link on to them:
> 
> http://www.scribd.com/doc/124737694/Australians-Seek-Gold-Repatriation-Bring-Home-Our-Gold




Really what is the issue with having it at the BOE?


----------



## young-gun

banco said:


> Really what is the issue with having it at the BOE?




None of the central banks trust each other anymore. It's widely believed that a lot are 'loaning' out gold, possibly more than they actually have. It's also believed that there is far more paper gold out there than actual physical.

There will eventually be a run for the door, and you don't want to one of the countries running out without any gold.

I personally think they should get it out of there asap, and also buy much much more.


----------



## hobo-jo

banco said:


> Really what is the issue with having it at the BOE?



By having it stored with the BoE we are exposing it to unnecessary counterparty risk. This is the same country which recently threatened to break international law and storm the Ecuadorian Embassy in order to extract another Australian treasure (Julian Assange ). We are going to trust this country with our Gold?


----------



## banco

hobo-jo said:


> By having it stored with the BoE we are exposing it to unnecessary counterparty risk. This is the same country which recently threatened to break international law and storm the Ecuadorian Embassy in order to extract another Australian treasure (Julian Assange ). We are going to trust this country with our Gold?




If you are the Government obviously you have to manage risks and the British stealing our gold would seem to be an infinitesimal risk.  

I think you've been watching too many episodes of doomsday preppers.  There's a psychology phd to be written on the fetishisation of gold by some. Incidentally they didn't threaten to storm the embassy.


----------



## hobo-jo

banco said:


> Incidentally they didn't threaten to storm the embassy.



Well they didn't use those words, but they did claim they could arrest him in the Ecuadorian Embassy: http://rt.com/news/assange-arrest-asylum-780/ And the police force they'd amassed at the building suggested they might be preparing to do so.

To be honest I would be more worried about Swan telling the RBA to sell the Gold to meet the deficit gap... there's no reason to keep our Gold in London unless planning to sell or lease it.


----------



## banco

hobo-jo said:


> Well they didn't use those words, but they did claim they could arrest him in the Ecuadorian Embassy: http://rt.com/news/assange-arrest-asylum-780/ And the police force they'd amassed at the building suggested they might be preparing to do so.
> 
> To be honest I would be more worried about Swan telling the RBA to sell the Gold to meet the deficit gap... there's no reason to keep our Gold in London unless planning to sell or lease it.




I assume the costs of securing that much gold are not insignificant and it's cheaper to outsource the security to the brits who through economies of scale presumably have lower security costs.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles\AEFAmericanBasesGermanyGoldBasis.pdf


----------



## notting

One of the problems with the above article is that it assumes gold has an inherent value.
It doesn't.  
Just as the paper we swap with each other for goods and services doesn't.
Goods and services are of value as they are required.

The interesting point that Obama made about the US and Euro free trade agreements being made even more robust was a direct show of strength to those not playing by the rules like China who have created this whole currancy issue with their currancy manipulation which has been going of for decades now.
What the US and Europe are doing is dealing with the consequencies of this Chinese attack as the consequences become too problematic to ignore.

Gold hit a low of $1,596.70  George Soros cut his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, by more than half in the fourth quarter.
Investment fund PIMCO and Tiger Management's Julian Robertson, dissolved his entire stake in Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF.

GLD's biggest shareholder John Paulson is rumoured to be stuck with his pants down in this trade and some say the sharks are feasting on this floundering whale.

With the US$ looking to be stronger against the Euro given the worse than expected recession figures that came out of Euroland during the week, Gold will suffer as it's biggest influence is the US value against the Euro.  So if the US$ goes up against the Euro then gold tends to go down with it!

The good thing for ausi miners is that the AU is alse weakening against the US which should stabalise Ausi miners but unfortunatly it doesn't seem to make any difference and they all go down with the price of US$ gold.

All this has been exagerated by the fact that there is little demand from Asia with the New Years holidays but the fact that gold has remained below it's 200day moving average for 6 days now is a very bearish signal.


----------



## tinhat

Gold price dipped again last week. The down-trend continues with a bearish outlook. I should have held off buying SLR which I did last week. Might need to get out of that one in the ST.

As for demand for gold, quite frankly, demand for jewellery is more important than central bank buying (of tungsten filled gold bars to add to their phantom stockpiles) and of course depreciation of currencies is going to increase the price of hard commodities in those currencies. So, we need to see continued recovery in India and China to see the demand for gold pick up IMHO.


----------



## zac

So everyone seems to still be bearish Gold.
Ive been following a blog thats been relatively accurate. They have been short from 1671 and expected it to drop to 1600 - 1590.
Amazingly lastnight it did just that.
They are now bullish yet in the next few days if it goes under 1590 expect 1530-1540 Major Resistance level to be reached.

So in my view im short term view im Long and my Longer term view (multi month/year) im bullish.
Yet im not surprised if it drops to 1530-1540 and see that as a golden buying opportunity if that level is breached.

I will be gob smacked if it dropped under 1520 / 1500.


----------



## tinhat

zac said:


> So everyone seems to still be bearish Gold.
> Ive been following a blog thats been relatively accurate. They have been short from 1671 and expected it to drop to 1600 - 1590.
> Amazingly lastnight it did just that.
> They are now bullish yet in the next few days if it goes under 1590 expect 1530-1540 Major Resistance level to be reached.
> 
> So in my view im short term view im Long and my Longer term view (multi month/year) im bullish.
> Yet im not surprised if it drops to 1530-1540 and see that as a golden buying opportunity if that level is breached.
> 
> I will be gob smacked if it dropped under 1520 / 1500.




What's the blog? PM me if you don't want to say on the forum.


----------



## notting

tinhat said:


> So, we need to see continued recovery in India and China to see the demand for gold pick up IMHO.




You want to also be mindful of the new %5 duty placed on gold by the Indian administration to try to curb the mass selling of the rupee to buy gold to hedge against the rupees weakening.

The Easterners will have a bit of a buying spree when they get back from holidays but it will just be a bit of a spike I reckon.
.
If US bond markets deflate which is also on the cards it will be even worse for gold.


----------



## zac

notting said:


> .
> If US bond markets deflate which is also on the cards it will be even worse for gold.




Why?
If you mean due to rising interest rates then yes I agree, but remember bond markets will deflate if there are inflationary risks too as it will mean rising interest rates.
So it can be a double edged sword in that regard so I half agree with your comment.
If you look at yields of treasuries when Gold was at its peak, they were far higher than they are now. Not that this should be seen as any correalation at all.


----------



## pixel

zac said:


> So everyone seems to still be bearish Gold.
> Ive been following a blog thats been relatively accurate. They have been short from 1671 and expected it to drop to 1600 - 1590.
> Amazingly lastnight it did just that.
> They are now bullish yet in the next few days if it goes under 1590 expect 1530-1540 Major Resistance level to be reached.
> 
> So in my view im short term view im Long and my Longer term view (multi month/year) im bullish.
> Yet im not surprised if it drops to 1530-1540 and see that as a golden buying opportunity if that level is breached.
> 
> I will be gob smacked if it dropped under 1520 / 1500.




I have little doubt about the low 1500's, zac.
This is what I posted yesterday across the road:
Right now, the weekly chart suggests more downside: $1608 before end of March; $1530 within the next 9 months. *If the 1520/1530 support fails*, we'll be in for quite a rude shock in 2014-15 with targets sub $1150.

but seeing that the 1608 have already been broken last night, I could be wayyy off with my timing. In that case, all my time estimates may need to come closer together.


----------



## cogs

zac,

So pretty much std fibs they chose on the blog?

Gold does seem to work quite well with fibs.


----------



## zac

pixel said:


> *If the 1520/1530 support fails*, we'll be in for quite a rude shock in 2014-15 with targets sub $1150.




While the 1500 level may be breached, I cant ever see it reaching $1150,
You havent taken into consideration production costs of Gold.


----------



## qldfrog

zac said:


> While the 1500 level may be breached, I cant ever see it reaching $1150,
> You havent taken into consideration production costs of Gold.



Since when has the price of a resource anything to do with the production cost, at least temporarily???

I am not a gold denier, but selling at a loss has occurred veru frequently in the commodity ,market or even for agricultural product:
once a mine is built or a crop planted, it might be less expensive to sell at a loss that doing a full closure  + human is an unstoppable hope addict: she wiull be right , it will get better soon.
I have goild, and do not see it collapsing that far, but the production cost is a non issue initially[ obviously, 5 years down the track, with no new mine, closed ones, etc etc a resource will start to get a better price but in the meantime..)
my 2c worth only


----------



## zac

qldfrog said:


> Since when has the price of a resource anything to do with the production cost, at least temporarily???




Hmmm, thats the beauty of commodities, their price will never go to zero.
I know with agricultural products as they are perishable they may be sold under production costs. Having grown up on a farm that happened a lot.

I cant think of a time Oil for example has gone under production costs,
Having said that different countries have different production costs, but Oil is very unlikely to get under $75 barrel again due to the supply issue it causes as it goes under production costs for one country in particular.

in 2008, production costs for Gold was $250 Oz but its soared since then for a number of reasons. I cant see why a gold producer will ever sell it for less when they can slow production or start stock piling.


----------



## pixel

zac said:


> I cant see why a gold producer will ever sell it for less when they can slow production or start stock piling.




When they've got interest to pay on debt, they may have no choice but to sell at whatever the market pays at the time. Remember VRE or CRS?


----------



## burglar

pixel said:


> When they've got interest to pay on debt, they may have no choice but to sell at whatever the market pays at the time. Remember VRE or CRS?




I remember Croesus (CRS)! 
They had more trouble than you could shake a stick at.
Rumour has it, that stealing ore was rife.

It didn't help that they had a hedge book!


----------



## FlyingFox

notting said:


> You want to also be mindful of the new %5 duty placed on gold by the Indian administration to try to curb the mass selling of the rupee to buy gold to hedge against the rupees weakening.
> 
> The Easterners will have a bit of a buying spree when they get back from holidays but it will just be a bit of a spike I reckon.
> .



I agree with you earlier comment about gold having no intrinsic value but that is true of any object that is used as money without another purpose. 

Hence the value of gold will always be tied to the perception of it's value by the populace at large. While the west has been weaned off of precious metals, this is certainly not the case in the east. 

The import of gold is proving to be a real problem for the government hence the tax but this will do little to change the perception of the people while they fear currency devaluations and banks. Moreover if the government pushes the issue, they might soon be out the door. Telling an Indian that you should not own gold is like telling a card carrying member of the NRA that they can't own guns.

Another reason for the popularity of Gold there is that it is such a compact store of wealth and in a country where tax evasion and corruption is strife, gold will always have a demand. If they fix all these, then the demand may drop. 

The real game changer for me is what is (will) China doing with their gold reserves. Already heard some high level officials saying they want to have much larger reserves. If/when they announce their new reserves and depending on the change expect that to have a impact on prices.


----------



## Edwood




----------



## brerwallabi

I like charts they show where the price has been, sometimes its necessary to look at a chart over a longer period of time to get the true direction of a stock or commodity. The gold chart over the short period covered Edwood clearly shows a downtrend and I guess you can apply many different indicators and they will also show short term trend strength confirmation.
A larger picture of gold will show that the long term trend still holds, there are factors in play to drive gold down to its current level. Little forays below some technical points are deliberate and are such to shake out the weak hands.
Me. yes I went short indicators provided that information. I am though ready to go long again.
There is no criticism of your chart a nice piece of work there is also a nice wave pattern which looks either to be completed or it may venture to US$1575 also an interesting triangle formation.
Just some thoughts


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Moving along in the right direction. Stops nudged up a bit.
> 
> View attachment 50468




These two, in spite of starting well, turned to stinkers while I was away! Shame I was told that gold was going to be higher than the DOW in 6 months......


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> These two, in spite of starting well, turned to stinkers while I was away! Shame I was told that gold was going to be higher than the DOW in 6 months......




Where did you go?  I had no one to banter with.


----------



## tinhat

Gold miners are having a relief rally today. MML is up 12% as I type. I sold out of MML when it broke below its previous lows on the weekly chart. Sold out at 4.35. I will be so pissed if that turns out to be the bottom of the current cycle!


----------



## notting

Now really.




Is that any way to behave whilst we have death cross?




After being knocked off my rocker with the big drop on Thursday, this gold action was all just a bit too much to digest whilst all the other volatility was going on.
I had been waiting for a bounce with the Chinese coming back in from holidays, and they seem to have gone for gold stocks first?
You don't often see that kind of contrarian action, a death cross in the commodity causing goldies to have a massive rally day. :dunno:
Smart people reading the FED fine print realising, "Hey, their not stopping the printing any time too soon?"
Or just playing for the very short term bounce out of oversold gold?


----------



## Mr Z

HUI rallied on short covering... wise up.

Options expiry next week, be cautious until we clear that date.


----------



## notting

Mr Z said:


> HUI rallied on short covering... wise up.




Oh.  So they are just covering shorts for the sake of it?


----------



## Mr Z

notting said:


> Oh.  So they are just covering shorts for the sake of it?




*It is called taking profit!* If you shorted into that decline and you got a "capitulation day" like that it is a *REALLY* logical point to cover your position. That is what would typically account for relative strength in the HUI against the sort of background (USDX, Gold etc) that the day in question had.

IF you had experience you would realize this, shorts take profit quickly because they are all leveraged.... perhaps you'd also set your stop losses for short positions above the market!!!! Not below...LOL

Yeah... wise up


----------



## notting

Mr Z said:


> *It is called taking profit!* If you shorted into that decline and you got a "capitulation day".




Oh. So it's *profit taking after capitulation *.
That makes sense.

I'm afraid *short covering * doesn't do it for me.  
I do that whether up or down on a short, if I figure a position is trending or about to move savagely against me.

Although, when gold has only just moved below its 200 day moving average, capitulation is not what comes to mind.  It's more like the confirmation of a bearish trend, early days, so to speak.

Also, *Death Cross*.  Now wonder what that term is meant to indicate? :hide:

Do you think gold stocks are that far ahead of the curve?


----------



## Mr Z

notting said:


> Oh. So it's *profit taking after capitulation *.
> That makes sense.




If you are short YES!!!! It makes perfect sense!



notting said:


> I'm afraid *short covering * doesn't do it for me.




LOL.... OK... then have it your way ---> It was bargain hunters!  



notting said:


> I do that whether up or down on a short, if I figure a position is trending or about to move savagely against me.




Crystal balls?



notting said:


> Although, when gold has only just moved below its 200 day moving average, capitulation is not what comes to mind.  It's more like the confirmation of a bearish trend, early days, so to speak.




The capitulation day was on the HUI... they gave up, chucked in the towel, ran away.... blah, blah, blah.... jeezz!



notting said:


> Also, *Death Cross*.  Now wonder what that term is meant to indicate? :hide:




Sweet FA!



notting said:


> Do you think gold stocks are that far ahead of the curve?




They are under the friggin table cowering in fear! They can't see the curve!

Cheap ain't the word...

*BUY!!!!!!*


----------



## notting

Mr Z said:


> *BUY!!!!!!*




OK.

I have been waiting for the Asia bounce.
I had four charts and depth screens open with match prices up at the start of trade on Friday but was too distracted by Thursday's and the overnight stock action to pull any triggers on gold apart from RRL.
So what will you be buying Monday? Or, if you could, how would you go about destributing say 250,000 into gold stocks on Monday?
Just a hypothetical question of course.


----------



## Mr Z

Option expiry is Monday.... US time. It will pay to wait until that is out of the way, there could well be more downside here BUT the HUI is silly cheap now.

I can't advise what... but watch closely... IMO the USDX is key and the opportunity is very close at hand. 

JMO.

DYODD... etc.


----------



## CanOz

Deje vu?

The DX can be inversely correlated to GC....


----------



## Mr Z

We could see ~84ish... mebe 85 IMO but I think that gold and gold stocks will find their floor just prior to the USDX topping out. Mebe even sooner but I am not quite convinced just yet.


----------



## notting

Mr Z said:


> *BUY!!!!!!*






> The most actively traded contract, for April delivery, on Friday fell $US5.80, or 0.4 per cent, to settle at $US1,572.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. This is the lowest settlement price since July 18 at $US1,570.80 a troy ounce.




Whilst our Goldie's all rallied for  6 hours before.
if it's just short profit taking then  new *buy*ing, may not be a good idea just yet.


----------



## Mr Z

Yeah well...use your charts and pick your entry, every stock is different but in the mid term it will be hard to go wrong from these levels IMO BUT one can always refine the entry point.

Then again this is advice for people that hold non-leveraged positions for more than a nanosecond.


----------



## tinhat

As mentioned earlier I "capitulated" last week and sold my MML when they broke below the long term support of around 4.50. Looking at the weekly chart, it is interesting to see that last week a "hammer" with a long tail formed and that the price ended up back at the 2012 support level at 2.49 .So last week's price action does have the appearance of a capitulation on the chart. The chart for SLR is very similar.

I'll be watching the gold stocks and gold price with great interest over the next few weeks.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Gold stocks looking moderately bullish at Friday's close.  

I like:

*RSG *- if it puts on 3c Monday I'm in.
*SBM *- potential for $1.26 short term.
*NCM *- 22.65 should make the move more easily this time with better volume.
*BDR *- v. strong close busting through multiple lines of resistance.  2 or 3 day trade. $1.08 resistance.


----------



## notting

Fin Review published a rumour that BDR was a 'shoe in' for a take over.  
Peddling self serving rubbish.
BDR took till 10mins before the close to refute the rumour after a speeding ticket!
Got the rest of the sector buzzing.
There was 3 days or reasonable buying in the sector prior.
Probably just Fin Review insiders!
Let's see if they all sell on Monday!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

notting said:


> Fin Review published a rumour that BDR was a 'shoe in' for a take over.
> Peddling self serving rubbish.
> BDR took till 10mins before the close to refute the rumour after a speeding ticket!
> Got the rest of the sector buzzing.
> There was 3 days or reasonable buying in the sector prior.
> Probably just Fin Review insiders!
> Let's see if they all sell on Monday!




I don't think so.  $13 million turnover and the closing price was 1.5c above the 4pm price with traders buying $750,000 worth in the auction period, well _after_ the news release.


----------



## notting

Yeah spose 10 mins is a long time in the market, specially on a late Friday afternoon session that was unbearably boaring.
Without further ramping news -
Whatch how BDR opens on Monday and performs till lunch.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

notting said:


> Yeah spose 10 mins is a long time in the market, specially on a late Friday afternoon session that was unbearably boaring.
> Without further ramping news -
> Whatch how BDR opens on Monday and performs till lunch.




That's not very nice.  Why are you being aggressive?


----------



## notting

Gringotts Bank said:


> That's not very nice.  Why are you being aggressive?




Not meaning to be mean. Don't like Fin Review ramps. 

On Wednesday it did strike me that gold could have a bit of a bounce again here, especially if the market is going to have a breather and gold has reacted slowly to the Feds back down on slowing stimulus.
I dropped shorts and went long on TRY and SLR.
Sold SLR yesterday at close to it's top, simply because it was a quick short term 
return that would cover me if TRY has a bad open Monday. 
Have a bit of RMS which has had a bounce.  Looking to get out of that and probably should have at the close.

So, that's where I am..

Was interesting that NCM had a good day Friday, that's a better measure of short term sentiment.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

notting said:


> Not meaning to be mean. Don't like Fin Review ramps.
> 
> On Wednesday it did strike me that gold could have a bit of a bounce again here, especially if the market is going to have a breather. I dropped shorts and went long on TRY and SLR.
> Sold SLR yesterday at close to it's top, simply because it was a quick short term
> return that would cover me if TRY has a bad open Monday.
> Have a bit of RMS which has had a bounce.  Looking to get out of that and probably should have at the close.
> 
> So, that's where I am..
> 
> Was interesting that NCM had a good day Friday, that's a better measure of short term sentiment.




Wouldn't they get in big trouble for saying such things without a reliable source?  I'm thinking maybe it's in its very early days and BDR haven't had anything formal land on their desk that they have to report to the market.

I had some RMS Friday and sold for 34.5, but I reckon it could gap up on open Tues.


----------



## explod

What have the last six posts really got to do with the direction of the gold price.

The Gold Stocks thread is the place to argue your current case in my view.

The gold price did not move this week and is sitting right on the bottom of the current consolidation pattern, now over 18 months old.

With up to a years world production of gold being traded some days on the paper markets we are in the lap of, *I do not know anymore.*

Views ?


----------



## notting

Gringotts Bank said:


> Wouldn't they get in big trouble for saying such things without a reliable source?




They do it all the time.  They can just say the source was unreliable if they were ever questioned!



Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm thinking maybe it's in its very early days and BDR haven't had anything formal land on their desk that they have to report to the market.




BDR are the ones more likely to get into trouble for not saying anything, when asked is there *anything*.

Would surely not hurt BDR to say "We have had some preliminary enquiries, but nothing of any substance has occured."

If there was *anythng* of that nature, at least saying that, would cover them as far as preliminary disclosure is concerned and *would be necessary to say* if there really was something, especailly if something has been announced in the press that reflected such.

BDR said there has been *nothing* of that nature.  
North America attending the conferences is a long way from an immanent take over bid as expressed in the FR.


----------



## notting

explod said:


> What have the last six posts really got to do with the direction of the gold price.







explod said:


> Views ?






notting said:


> On Wednesday it did strike me that gold could have a bit of a bounce again here, especially if the market is going to have a breather and gold has reacted slowly to the Feds back down on slowing stimulus.




Doesn't that qualify as a view on gold?


----------



## zac

I had a quick peruse of FOMC member Duke's speech from the weekend.

From the glance I had, looks like she is pleased with the recovering economy but has concerns whether it can be sustained and there is a long way to go.
So reading between the lines I got the feeling she isnt thinking QE should cease anytime soon.

Anyone have any other info.


----------



## inyaface

Gringotts Bank said:


> Gold stocks looking moderately bullish at Friday's close.
> 
> I like:
> 
> *RSG *- if it puts on 3c Monday I'm in.
> *SBM *- potential for $1.26 short term.
> *NCM *- 22.65 should make the move more easily this time with better volume.
> *BDR *- v. strong close busting through multiple lines of resistance.  2 or 3 day trade. $1.08 resistance.




I just bought my biggest NCM parcel yet at 21.59, have made good gains on multiple shorts on NCM in the last 6 weeks.


----------



## explod

notting said:


> Doesn't that qualify as a view on gold?




But there was no qualification as to why so without that it does not fit with subject or thesis of the thread.

There is a thread for gold stocks and your discussion should go there.


----------



## Joe Blow

There is a thread dedicated to gold stocks here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=573

It hasn't seen any action for a while, so please feel free to resurrect it.


----------



## notting

explod said:


> But there was no qualification as to why so without that it does not fit with subject or thesis of the thread.




I thought this was the possible reason expressed (which is what I think you mean by qualification) -



notting said:


> the market is going to have a breather and gold has reacted slowly to the Feds back down on slowing stimulus.




The title of the thread is not a thesis, it's a question.

However, If you are looking to find a syllogism amidst the content of the afore mentioned posts - 

You could put it together like this:

Subject - Gold, where is it's price heading?

Predicate - up - expressed as bounce.

Reason (why) - Fed printing re-assured/market breather due. (renewed inflation hedging and defensive market action in gold yet to be observed as an upward price movement of gold.)

Which was all a subsequent attempt to back up, *a sense/hunch*, that gold was about to have a bounce, how long that *hunch/sense* will last for is unpredictable despite having found a reason for it, so will be treated with a very quick exit unless technical or fundamental indicator supports the initial direction so far expressed in gold stocks.  Another hunch will also cause me to hold and buy more and I will look to find another reason to back it up!(but that's the future and not something one* tries* to preempt - let it roll.) .


----------



## tinhat

Is anyone watching the live gold price? Just got on the computer to see it has shot up in the last hour. Will be interesting to see where it is by our market opening tomorrow. I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.


----------



## CanOz

tinhat said:


> Is anyone watching the live gold price? Just got on the computer to see it has shot up in the last hour. Will be interesting to see where it is by our market opening tomorrow. I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.




Yeah its Cable weakness....


----------



## trillionaire#1

tinhat said:


> Is anyone watching the live gold price? Just got on the computer to see it has shot up in the last hour. Will be interesting to see where it is by our market opening tomorrow. I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.




Tinhat , I just had a look on Kitko live prices and saw the bid/ask at 1597/1598,will be interesting to see if it holds up there.
I bought :KCN,TRY,AQG,GRY,RSG,when they were being dumped a few weeks back ,looking good so far,but gold isnt the flavour of the month so ill keep a close eye on them.


I also nearly bought some MMl shares when in the $3 dollar range,but my portfolio was getting a bit gold heavy!


----------



## CanOz

trillionaire#1 said:


> Tinhat , I just had a look on Kitko live prices and saw the bid/ask at 1597/1598,will be interesting to see if it holds up there.
> I bought :KCN,TRY,AQG,GRY,RSG,when they were being dumped a few weeks back ,looking good so far,but gold isnt the flavour of the month so ill keep a close eye on them.
> 
> 
> I also nearly bought some MMl shares when in the $3 dollar range,but my portfolio was getting a bit gold heavy!




Cable dropped 75 pips, then gained it all back, then lost half again, then the DX opened and seems to be keeping a lid on gold...and oil.


----------



## Trembling Hand

trillionaire#1 said:


> I bought :KCN,TRY,AQG,GRY,RSG,when they were being dumped a few weeks back ,looking good so far,but gold isnt the flavour of the month so ill keep a close eye on them.
> 
> 
> I also nearly bought some MMl shares when in the $3 dollar range,but my portfolio was getting a bit gold heavy!






tinhat said:


> I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.




Why do you guys muck around with gold miners when playing gold? It seems the miners are a terrible play on rising gold price. Why not just trade gold? Its much cheaper and after all its what your are actually trading but with a delta of 1 rather than..... -0.8!!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I wouldn't say it's going gangbusters but at least those few I mentioned are holding up.  The move in February was a 'head fake'..... just call me Harry Hindsight!


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> Why do you guys muck around with gold miners when playing gold? . Why not just trade gold? Its much cheaper and after all its what your are actually trading but with a delta of 1 rather than..... -0.8!!




You don't get the percentage moves with gold as you do with the stocks.  
Where's the fun in that?



Trembling Hand said:


> It seems the miners are a terrible play on rising gold price




I love terrible.
Booo $$$$


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> You don't get the percentage moves with gold as you do with the stocks.
> Where's the fun in that?




This is not enough?


----------



## Trembling Hand

notting said:


> You don't get the percentage moves with gold as you do with the stocks.
> Where's the fun in that?




So? that cuts both ways. Thats what newbies say when they start trading options on stocks.



> why trade BHP for 10% when I can trade BHPXYZ call and get 200%




Like option trading its a myth. Do the maths and look at R:R, cost, spread, ability to sensible leverage, depth, slippage, no gaps, Delta and its strange that you would waste your capital on a hole in the ground.



Then of course there is the incredible ability of Directors to waste your capital.

just saying......


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> This is not enough?




Enough for some, not for me.  On this occasion.

Gold price, say in US$, for me, has far more conflicting handles than simple gold miners which *if you know a bit about* respond and sometimes pre-empt what gold is doing in general.

In this case it occurred that gold miners had already over reacted to gold, which for the moment is remaining below it's 200 day moving average whilst miners are showing a kind of temporary bottoming, then all that was needed was a sense for a small positive bounce in Gold for the miners to have a far higher kicker.  

Even if gold did nothing, as it did for the first two days of the miners run, it was a safe enough bet because they have already overshot.  If you look at what these things were doing when gold was on it's way up to 1600 it was quite a different story.  
Overplayed trend.

As nothing goes down in a straight line (even gold), miners where on the canvas, global risk taking had been overplayed, a kind of pervasive general defensive market move was well due.  

So with almost no short term risk for the canvassed gold stokes they seemed likely to offer a higher % bounce than gold.  If this all played out.

That's the fairy tale that I was playing out, illuminated by what, from a logicians perspective would be deemed as random neuron receptor making mutated synapse link which seemed like a good idea at the time.


----------



## explod

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is a former Assistant Secretary to the US Treasury and no mug.



> Dr. Roberts:  “You can’t retain a stable exchange value of your currency while you print it in enormous quantities.  So, at some point it has to shake the confidence of the rest of the world in the dollar as the reserve currency.
> 
> 
> We already know about efforts to move away from the use of the dollar as the reserve currency.  We know the BRIC’s are making agreements to resolve their trade balances with one another in their own currencies.  That’s Russia, China, Brazil, South Africa, India.  It covers most of the geography of the world.
> 
> 
> There are reports that Japan and China, despite their disputes over islands, are working to conduct their trade in their own currencies.  As the use of the dollar as the reserve currency for transactions or as a store of value declines, then the demand for dollars declines, so its exchange value in currency markets declines.
> 
> 
> The Federal Reserve can print all of the money it needs in order to support bond prices, but printing dollars doesn’t support the dollar price.  And the Fed has not the power to print foreign currencies with which to support the dollar price.  So the dollar is the vulnerable spot in the Fed’s policy management, and the popping of the bubble is likely to come from the dollar.”




full item and references at : http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...ficial_-_Fed_Desperate_To_Avoid_Collapse.html

The newswires seem very active this weekend and though a bearish tone for this week I suspect it could be interesting on the markets and gold usually responds some days later, say a week or so from now.

Just my Vibe.


----------



## notting

My vibe was that we were in for a bounce, on Thursday it looked like it was all over, but Friday it felt again like it had been re-invigorated.

Yet I don't get that impressed with articles like the above downing the US$.
Especially given that there is printing going on all over.
It's hard to imagine the US$ it could be more vulnerable than the Euro, Yen or Pound.
I found it quite extraordinary that the Euro recovered as well as it did from it's lows against the US$, given the Spanish and Italian situations even the French situation is dire.
These things have all been overvalued for decades from an Ausi perspective and Gold perspective.
Just gotta wonder if the correction has fully played out.

You do hear most commentators, fund managers, guru investors and traders say they are bullish long term on gold, but short term bearish.

Gold stocks themselves seem to have overshot to the downside but given their capacity for volatility they could do a fair bit worse before they stabilise and trend higher again.

Although if SLR stays where it is on Monday I will be buying.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting situation with the DX though...dollar strength is keeping a lid on gold and oil....


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Interesting situation with the DX though...dollar strength is keeping a lid on gold and oil....




Just got home and checking the markets..the DX got hammered the last two sessions...Oil is still in an uptrend..

Will post a GOLD / DX chart later....

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Gold has done a great job in the face of dollar strength, which appears to have pulled back...


----------



## zac

How do you think the market will react on open to the news of Cyrprus raiding up to 10% of Bank Deposits?
I imagine a flight from EUR to USD, I dont know what it will mean for Gold..
Will it mean a move to the ultimate currency? or will the drive in USD lower Gold.


----------



## CanOz

zac said:


> How do you think the market will react on open to the news of Cyrprus raiding up to 10% of Bank Deposits?
> I imagine a flight from EUR to USD, I dont know what it will mean for Gold..
> Will it mean a move to the ultimate currency? or will the drive in USD lower Gold.




Great question Zac! Our markets will be the first to price this in...a non event or a game changer?

CanOz


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Great question Zac! Our markets will be the first to price this in...a non event or a game changer?
> 
> CanOz




Up US$15 on a Monday open is new.


----------



## young-gun

Having a bit of a lazy you tube sunday and came across this seminar by Mike Maloney. I think he perfectly sums up where we are headed, and does so very well imo. It's a bit lengthy but interesting if anyone is up for it.

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY

The underlying topic of the video is gold and it's future.


----------



## FlyingFox

young-gun said:


> Having a bit of a lazy you tube sunday and came across this seminar by Mike Maloney. I think he perfectly sums up where we are headed, and does so very well imo. It's a bit lengthy but interesting if anyone is up for it.
> 
> Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY
> 
> The underlying topic of the video is gold and it's future.




BTW Mike is speaking in Melb and Syd this coming week.


----------



## young-gun

FlyingFox said:


> BTW Mike is speaking in Melb and Syd this coming week.




Really? any idea if hes coming to bris?

TBH I imagine he would have much the same to say as he did in the above link. Not much has changed since this vid, only the fed has ramped up QE even further and bubbles are once again forming.


----------



## FlyingFox

young-gun said:


> Really? any idea if hes coming to bris?
> 
> TBH I imagine he would have much the same to say as he did in the above link. Not much has changed since this vid, only the fed has ramped up QE even further and bubbles are once again forming.




no just Syd and Melb. I believe the guys from Guardian Vaults are bringing him over. 

I believe it will be a seminar incorporating various things including the vid you linked as well as how to invest in precious metals.


----------



## zac

Having a look at the latest COT data, Ive found it interesting, the divergence between Gold and Silver.
More longs entered on Gold but Silver is the opposite.


----------



## So_Cynical

young-gun said:


> Having a bit of a lazy you tube sunday and came across this seminar by Mike Maloney. I think he perfectly sums up where we are headed, and does so very well imo. It's a bit lengthy but interesting if anyone is up for it.
> 
> Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY
> 
> The underlying topic of the video is gold and it's future.




16 Aug 2011, don't know if this is as relevant now. 

Gold stocks getting hammered with most of the ones im watching hitting new 52 week lows over the last few weeks...there is an opportunity coming but were not quite there yet.


----------



## FlyingFox

So_Cynical said:


> 16 Aug 2011, don't know if this is as relevant now.
> 
> Gold stocks getting hammered with most of the ones im watching hitting new 52 week lows over the last few weeks...there is an opportunity coming but were not quite there yet.




Just watching this now. Have to agree with SC, lost some relevance while other parts are still applicable today. Having said that he is a good speaker and presents some interesting facts. One of the best simple descriptions of the currency cycle I have heard....


----------



## notting

Can't believe people get sucked into this scamsters (Mike Maloney) rubbish.
Go be a sucker and attend his Sprooking seminar make sure you buy all the crap offered there too.
Make him rich that way, cause he can't do it trading gold.


----------



## zac

notting said:


> Can't believe people get sucked into this scamsters (Mike Maloney) rubbish.
> Go be a sucker and attend his Sprooking seminar make sure you buy all the crap offered there too.
> Make him rich that way cause he can't do it trading gold.




I've heard that about him, but whats his scam?
As for his theories on Gold, theyre widely known and shared.

So Ive often wondered what is he selling?


----------



## FlyingFox

zac said:


> Having a look at the latest COT data, Ive found it interesting, the divergence between Gold and Silver.
> More longs entered on Gold but Silver is the opposite.




Can't say I understand it either. Kinda hearing two reasons for the silver shorts:

1) Price manipulations by the bullion banks.
2) hedge (and intrinsic price manipulation) by the bullion banks for their physical acquisitions (http://www.silverdoctors.com/is-jp-...g-massive-physical-stockpiles-of-gold-silver/).

Which one is it or something else? Don't know.

Current gold longs maybe due to the Cyprus situation??


----------



## FlyingFox

notting said:


> Can't believe people get sucked into this scamsters (Mike Maloney) rubbish.
> Go be a sucker and attend his Sprooking seminar make sure you buy all the crap offered there too.
> Make him rich that way, cause he can't do it trading gold.




As opposed to the Stock Market scamsters? 

Costs you nothing to listen on you tube. You can then make up your own mind.


----------



## zac

The recent rise in gold even though it was minimal and subdued does seem to be due to Cyprus.

I was surprised to see Silver slowly get lower but thanks for that article, it says it all.

Does this mean that due to the manipulation, and I know as theyve become a basel currency will this mean that the current levels (or lower) wont be reached ever again when Banks are happy they have amassed enough booty??


----------



## FlyingFox

zac said:


> The recent rise in gold even though it was minimal and subdued does seem to be due to Cyprus.
> 
> I was surprised to see Silver slowly get lower but thanks for that article, it says it all.




Well it is another opinion. As always take it with a big grain of salt and make up your own mind. But it does pose some interesting questions and answers.



zac said:


> Does this mean that due to the manipulation, and I know as theyve become a basel currency will this mean that the current levels (or lower) wont be reached ever again when Banks are happy they have amassed enough booty??




Didn't realise that Gold was back in Tier 1. Thanks. What does it mean? Don't know. What is enough booty? Personally, and this is just opinion, there needs to be a big shift from the current system to substantially push metals up. People just love debt and keeping up with the Jones and physical metals have lost their attraction. Until that changes no big push up and if there is hedging or manipulation, some downward pressure.


----------



## young-gun

So_Cynical said:


> 16 Aug 2011, don't know if this is as relevant now.
> 
> Gold stocks getting hammered with most of the ones im watching hitting new 52 week lows over the last few weeks...there is an opportunity coming but were not quite there yet.






FlyingFox said:


> Just watching this now. Have to agree with SC, lost some relevance while other parts are still applicable today. Having said that he is a good speaker and presents some interesting facts. One of the best simple descriptions of the currency cycle I have heard....




I'd have to disagree. I don't know that the current climate has really changed all that much from 18 months ago. Everything is just getting worse, fed is printing more etc. Everything still points to something big imo.



notting said:


> Can't believe people get sucked into this scamsters (Mike Maloney) rubbish.
> Go be a sucker and attend his Sprooking seminar make sure you buy all the crap offered there too.
> Make him rich that way, cause he can't do it trading gold.




Haha, yeah because his spruiking has seen gold go through the roof! Maloney, Schiff, Soros, Celente, Keiser, Rogers and many others. All these guys have been banging on about gold for years. Schiff and Maloney have vested interests, but 2 guys spruiking gold isn't going to move the price, and they would be stupid to think that their opinion is going to bring them great riches and move the gold market so they can cash out. It's the only logical step, and it will eventually take off. These guys are still very contrarian to mainstream.



zac said:


> I've heard that about him, but whats his scam?
> As for his theories on Gold, theyre widely known and shared.
> 
> So Ive often wondered what is he selling?




There is no scam, imo they are simply opening peoples eyes to the corruption that is the current financial system. Maloney makes his money by 1. being a bullion dealer, which I imagine wouldn't be an easy buck to turn, as the market has had a fair bit of downside lately, and 2. people can sign up for his updates - 'insiders' I think it is called, quite a hefty price I think($1500?), however all his education videos are free, so i dunno. Oh he also wrote the rich dad advisors book to investing in bullion, likely did quite well from that. He's been buying bullion since 2000 or so - probably even earlier. 

Unfortunately a lot of people turn a blind eye to these theories on gold with the 'that will never happen' attitude.


----------



## jea1702

guycharles said:


> We have seen the false start and the consolidation. Now that more and more people are starting  to realise inflation is about to go nuts and that is good for Gold.





Good prediction mate, wish I'd heeded your advice in 2004 and bought some of the stuff. As of late March 2013 however, I still think gold is a good bet. 

Firstly gold has come down off its heady highs from a year ago and many investors are selling as there is uncertainty of wether gold's bull run is over, so now would be a good time to get in the game. I definately do not think that gold's bull run is over-firstly because despite all the politicians claims the 'recession is over,' the recent fiasco with Cyprus shows Europe is still very much on shakey ground, the US is a long way from sorting out its fiscal mess, China's future prospects are very much uncertain owing to its vast internal debt, runaway property market, rising cost of imports and reduced demand for its exports in the West and almost every Government in the World is printing money, meaning future inflation is a given without the economic growth to offset it and what do people do to hedge against a worthless paper currency? Buy gold.

Last and not least, China and to a lesser extent other countries such as Russia have been quietly buying up all the gold they can get their hands on-China knows that US treasury bills have no real worth and are looking for 'real wealth' as a means of reserves. The scale of this buying is huge and when it comes to light, my bet is the price of gold will soar.

In short, I think gold is still very much tipped to be a bull market and regardless is always a good investment to make if bought in the right proportions to income bearing assets.


----------



## FlyingFox

Up from the sounds of it....

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/ce...old-than-ever-shouldnt-you-be-too/2013/03/28/

Need to buy some bullion.....


----------



## Alvin Purple

Gold price - where is it heading?

The accurate answer is: nobody knows.

For every analyst that says it will rise there is another analyst that says it will fall.

Forecasts range from $2000 in 12 months to $5000 in 2 years and one very bullish analyst has forecast even $15000 in 5 years from now. Bearish forecasts range from $1500 to as low as $750 an ounce.

That reminds me of the time when I used to prospect for gold myself. I needed some tools so I went to the hardware store but there were only two shovels left. So the storekeeper said: "Take your pick."

How long is a piece of string?


----------



## sreeve

Gold price ($USD) continues to move sideways. Some nice support points formed at $1550.




~ Scott


----------



## Ann

Hi all!

Here I am back again with a very bearish chart for Gold. Way back at the beginning of July 2012 I posted a chart of what appeared to me then to be the beginnings of a bearish Megaphone Top for Gold on this post.... 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=470&p=715398&viewfull=1#post715398 

Now I present to you a fully formed Megaphone Top pattern which is generally regarded as a very bearish pattern and likely to resolve on the downside.

I am using a quarterly chart with end of quarter close only. No fancy bars or candlesticks. Yes candlesticks look pretty and have heaps of information, far more than I want to hear and see in order to chart with the KISS  principle. 

I believe I am getting a clearer more truthful picture earlier by using this simpler method.


----------



## sinner

For the record, Bulkowski ranks "Broadening Tops" aka megaphones as 19 out of 21 for upside breakouts and 18 out of 23 for downside breakouts. 

http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html


> Like the broadening bottom, the broadening top is a poor performer, especially in a bull market. The break even failure rate is high and the average rise is meager.




Considering your quartlery chart is still making higher highs and higher lows, I am wondering exactly how is this a bearish megaphone? Wouldn't you expect at least the bottom of the megaphone to actually have lower lows?


----------



## Ann

sinner said:


> For the record, Bulkowski ranks "Broadening Tops" aka megaphones as 19 out of 21 for upside breakouts and 18 out of 23 for downside breakouts.
> 
> http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html
> 
> 
> Considering your quartlery chart is still making higher highs and higher lows, I am wondering exactly how is this a bearish megaphone? Wouldn't you expect at least the bottom of the megaphone to actually have lower lows?




Hi Sinner,

Thanks for taking the time to comment most appreciated. What I have drawn in Bulkowski language is an Ascending Broadening Wedge which he describes as "Megaphone Tilted Up"

He says in discussion.. 

Price Trend: it can be up or down leading to the pattern.
Shape: Megaphone tilted up.
Trendlines: Both trendlines slope upward. The top one slopes more steeply than the bottom one.
Touchlines: At least three peakes and three valleys should touch their repective trendline.
Volume: Irregular but trends upward 64% of the time. (Sadly I don't have volume to assess this point).
Breakout: Downward 73% of the time.

http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

There is also what appears to be a forming Head and Shoulders pattern within the 'Megaphone' but I am not sure it will make it to the second shoulder before there is a downward breakout. 


However folks as I say...I could always be wrong! Use your own judgement and do your own research.

Kind regards 

Ann


----------



## young-gun

Ann said:


> Hi Sinner,
> 
> Thanks for taking the time to comment most appreciated. What I have drawn in Bulkowski language is an Ascending Broadening Wedge which he describes as "Megaphone Tilted Up"
> 
> He says in discussion..
> 
> Price Trend: it can be up or down leading to the pattern.
> Shape: Megaphone tilted up.
> Trendlines: Both trendlines slope upward. The top one slopes more steeply than the bottom one.
> Touchlines: At least three peakes and three valleys should touch their repective trendline.
> Volume: Irregular but trends upward 64% of the time. (Sadly I don't have volume to assess this point).
> Breakout: Downward 73% of the time.
> 
> http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html
> 
> There is also what appears to be a forming Head and Shoulders pattern within the 'Megaphone' but I am not sure it will make it to the second shoulder before there is a downward breakout.
> 
> 
> However folks as I say...I could always be wrong! Use your own judgement and do your own research.
> 
> Kind regards
> 
> Ann




Hi Ann,

with gold on its way down, do you have any predictions as to where you think it might find its feet? The more 'good news' that is circulated the faster it appears to slide, being around 16% off highs in aud.


----------



## Ann

young-gun said:


> Hi Ann,
> 
> with gold on its way down, do you have any predictions as to where you think it might find its feet? The more 'good news' that is circulated the faster it appears to slide, being around 16% off highs in aud.






Good question Young-Gun,

Let me give you my opinion on a chart. A chart is merely a reflection of the emotions of a group of traders responding to various stimuli....mostly fear and greed but often also boredom. Boredom is when a stock or commodity ranges sideways for a considerable time and is very effective for cleaning out a lot of short term traders, tending to leave behind the genuine long term investors. With me so far?  When there is a lack of good consolidation levels you will have a large group of short term traders who will dump their holding at certain levels where they are not prepared to go below. As there have been no quarterly levels of consolidation since 850 to 950 that is where I think a real price strength will hold in a worst case scenario. (chart to follow).

Looking at the weekly chart (not uploaded) 1550 may be a holding level. On the monthly chart (not uploaded) I can see a short period of consolidation of a few months at around 1300 levels and then another short period of consolidation at the 1100 level. These may offer a level of support for a time if the POG continues to fall away.

If gold drops the $USD will rise and that may be more fun for the traders and an enticement to abandon gold as a fun little plaything. There is no loyalty to a falling market.

The other scenario put out by the gold bugs is that there is massive price manipulation going on by 'them'. So maybe 'them' will get together and make total nonsense of what I have just suggested!

Kind regards

Ann


----------



## So_Cynical

Ann said:


> When there is a lack of good consolidation levels you will have a large group of short term traders who will dump their holding at certain levels where they are not prepared to go below. As there have been no quarterly levels of consolidation since 850 to 950 that is where I think a real price strength will hold in a worst case scenario. (chart to follow).




Coincidence that 850 to 950 USD is very close to the world average production price? (my guesstimate)



			
				http://www.minewebaustralia.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=158127&sn=Detail said:
			
		

> While global gold mine production was at best flat in the first half of 2012, average total cash costs jumped 19% to a new high of $727 per ounce.




Agree that the 850 to 950 range is my WCS, and if it eventuates world Gold production would fall by maybe 20 or 30% as the marginal miners go broke and close down, Good Gold stocks could fall another 60 or 70% ala GFC lows or worse.


----------



## Whiskers

Ann said:


> If gold drops the $USD will rise and that may be more fun for the traders and an enticement to abandon gold as a fun little plaything.




Gold has been too high for too long imo. 

Similarly, the USD has been too low for too long (especially v AUD). The US seems to have consolidated their economy and a shift of funds from equities back to more normal inventory and business development levels in the US is due.


----------



## Ann

Whiskers said:


> Gold has been too high for too long imo.
> 
> Similarly, the USD has been too low for too long (especially v AUD). The US seems to have consolidated their economy and a shift of funds from equities back to more normal inventory and business development levels in the US is due.




Hi Whiskers,

The Aussie dollar rides on the back of gold...so if POG rises, so too will the $A, if POG falls then so too will the $A. The $US dollar rides on the back of industry.

Clearly now the US markets are back in the 'black' with all time highs, it follows the US employment rate will rise in line with the markets. This will give people more confidence to get back into housing and purchasing all the other requirments for the home.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> Hi Whiskers,
> 
> The Aussie dollar rides on the back of gold...so if POG rises, so too will the $A, if POG falls then so too will the $A. The $US dollar rides on the back of industry.




Or perhaps it's simply due to the fluctuations of the $USD?



Ann said:


> Clearly now the US markets are back in the 'black' with all time highs, it follows the US employment rate will rise in line with the markets. This will give people more confidence to get back into housing and purchasing all the other requirments for the home.




Nominal highs at least, funded by leveraged debt no less. I don't think it does 'follow' that 'US employment rate will rise in line with the markets', as so succinctly portrayed by the latest 'worse-than-expected' shocker NFP of 88k.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And so it was that I found my way down to China Town to top up my bullion on Thursday, and was greeted with an unusual scene - rationing of entry to ABC Bullion offices. And it wasn't to prevent the weak hands from dumping their holdings, in fact the opposite - everyone was BTFD!

Later that night I wandered into the ABC Bullion 'seminar' - Precious Metals - Why The Bull Market Is Not Over.
The room was packed & I estimate it was a nice little money earner for ABC at least (around $10k or so). 
Mostly the usual from the gold bug fraternity - lot's of charts, mostly out dated, with an enthusiastic presentation from  Jordan Eliseo, Chief Economist at ABC Bullion, preaching to the converted. I was a little concerned when he didn't know where the Atlantic Ocean was though. Still, a good tax write off and a chance to win some free silver bullion at least.


----------



## Mr Z

Low in early to mid May? ~ 10th, maybe options expiry on the 28/5... STILL waiting for the final capitulation. Buy in May this year? Big option OI @ 1500 this month and next, with good OI @ 1400 next month. 1500 by the 25/4 looks like target #1, judge from there, 1400-1500 in May? How low does the low go? OI seems to define the options geeks targets quite clearly.



BTW.... 1500 odd is around cost for most of the mines that had a $900 cost just five years ago. It should provide a floor of sorts, even if we go below for a period of time.... otherwise mines are closing, quite a few of them.


----------



## zac

Mr Z said:


> BTW.... 1500 odd is around cost for most of the mines that had a $900 cost just five years ago. It should provide a floor of sorts, even if we go below for a period of time.... otherwise mines are closing, quite a few of them.




Are there any news articles, reports on the closure of mines.
Ive been wondering about this of late, re the low cost of Gold/Silver being so close to production.
I wondered whether stock piling was occuring or mines shutting down.


----------



## Mr Z

zac said:


> Are there any news articles, reports on the closure of mines.
> Ive been wondering about this of late, re the low cost of Gold/Silver being so close to production.
> I wondered whether stock piling was occuring or mines shutting down.




I'm talking future tense, should gold stay below 1500 for any significant time capacity will be shelved. So far I have not seen anything I would call significant in terms of closures.


----------



## explod

Gold and silver moving, physical coins running out, big shorts moving to long, Norcini, the best expert near to the trading pits for many years saying go.

The bugs time is back ,  my silver on this next move over 1 and a half years to be up 550%

So lets stand back and see.

Beware that what I say is opinon and mostly wrong.  Monitors here present me as the villiage idiot. and they are mostly correct.


----------



## chops_a_must

Just copping a bath from liquidation in Europe.

Not entirely sure where support is for this.

Could it be that gold equities are leading the spot price?


----------



## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Just copping a bath from liquidation in Europe.
> 
> Not entirely sure where support is for this.
> 
> Could it be that gold equities are leading the spot price?




Crude as well, absolute caning. The DX has bounced nicely I'm guessing, had so many data issues tonight I had to give up....

Nice to see some selling again.

CanOz


----------



## bigdog

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock...YzBGxhbmcDZW4tVVMEdGVzdANUZXN0X0FGQw--;_ylv=3

Friday April 12 2013

Gold plunged $64 to $1,501 an ounce, reaching its lowest level since July 2011. Prices for other metals including silver and copper also fell sharply.

One trigger for the latest fall was a government report that U.S. wholesale prices declined the most in 10 months in March. Traders tend to sell metals when inflation wanes. They also pushed gold prices lower on reports that Cyprus may sell some of its gold reserves, possibly leading other weak European countries like Italy and Spain to do the same.


----------



## Whiskers

bigdog said:


> ...reports that Cyprus may sell some of its gold reserves, possibly leading other weak European countries like Italy and Spain to do the same.




You would think they should have been doing a bit of selling by now in anticipation of the inevetable correction, but I suppose while they hold hope of writing off large chunks of their debt, they will hold out a bit longer.


----------



## CanOz

That was an absolute hammering, massive long liquidation...but its not like there were no warnings. The USD repeatedly rejected lower prices, that number that came out was well after GC had starting its decline in the Globex session. 

The Low of Day is not accurate on the 60 minutes chart, as the session is not complete. Will fix that later, just wanted to show the market profile.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Related to GC, the DX has been trending down as well, but the last two sessions refused to break lower, value for the time being has been accepted above 82.00. 

Usually you, or in the past you'd see the dollar spike when the market goes risk off with treasuries...Not to be at the moment.

Interesting situation right now with the currencies...

First chart is the USD index, second is the 10 yr, third is the 60 minute DX chart, showing the down trend weakening as value areas are  closer together, like a bracket starting.

CanOz


----------



## young-gun

CanOz said:


> That was an absolute hammering, massive long liquidation...*but its not like there were no warnings. *
> 
> CanOz




In future can you please post such warnings? I bought yesterday ffs. Luckily didn't buy much, will wait to see just how low we can go before I buy again. Could be some bargains for gold coming up in the near future, I thought it was already cheap.

Talking to the bullion dealers they were saying they are having quite a lot of people going through selling in the past couple of weeks, spooked by recent downward price movements. Fingers crossed gold gets massively oversold from here.


----------



## CanOz

young-gun said:


> In future can you please post such warnings? I bought yesterday ffs. Luckily didn't buy much, will wait to see just how low we can go before I buy again. Could be some bargains for gold coming up in the near future, I thought it was already cheap.
> 
> Talking to the bullion dealers they were saying they are having quite a lot of people going through selling in the past couple of weeks, spooked by recent downward price movements. Fingers crossed gold gets massively oversold from here.




I did post something, just trying to find it...

Sorry, i made a comment about the DX (USD index) being at a critical level....not gold specifically, but if you're watching one you got to be watching the others.



> The USD is very close to a key level. Not only does this provide a great trading opportunity, but it will obviously impact the other currencies as well as metals and commodities.
> 
> For those interested, you can see that price has been clearly rejected at the 82.25 ish level a few times. Now we appear to be rolling over so if we don't find initiative buyers this time then the DX could be in for a substantial decline. Something to keep an eye on.




and on another forum as well:



> *12th April 2013, 05:28 PM IP*
> 
> Gold is getting to the magic level again....everyone knows it too....I'm sure there must be some stops down there!!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> support for spot gold seen at $1,525 area with sell stops likely below**Note: The $1,525/oz level had held as support in Sept 2011, Dec 2011 and spring 2012 - Source TradeTheNews.com
Click to expand...



CanOz


----------



## Trade wind

I'm not a gold investor, but I just can't help putting in my two cents worth (ooops, I mean, my 0.0000125 ounces worth). Of all the illogical markets in an often illogical investment world, gold is the most difficult to fathom, driven overwhelmingly by sentiment with little or no regard to fundamentals.

Where is gold heading? Who the hell knows, but is it really worth $1500, $1600, $2000 or even $200? Hell no. The main thing that props up the gold price is the antiquated and mistaken belief that gold is the only true safe haven investment in times of economic turmoil. This belief is based largely on the old gold standard, long since buried and rightly so, for it resulted in prolonged and frequent depressions, as countries struggled to adjust their economies under the burden of a single currency, much like present-day Europe is discovering under the Euro.

But this doesn't stop central banks from acquiring gold reserves, nor the cries to return to the gold standard, most notably from fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school, and the gold-nut bloggers. These "fiat currency" ranting survivalists, mostly American, are a fascinating blend of paranoid ammo/food hoarders and precious metal speculators spruiking prices that resemble reality as much as their doomsday predictions of Armageddon.

The gold nuts are the main reason I don't buy gold, for any investment that attracts crazies like that is destined for tears. I think the mini-crash of 2012, and gold's subsequent price struggle, have shaken a lot of them out of the tree, but they are not alone. From respected investment advisors to Indian peasants and hairy chested muzzers, the historical allure and greed for gold persists, though its gloss is slowly fading and unless a technology is found to massivey boost its use a rare industrial metal, long term its price will surely fold more than hold.

Sell gold is my mantra, but what the hell do I know, I'm not a believer.


----------



## CanOz

Lol @ Trade wind...

That's going to wind them up!

Reality for me is that is just another commodity.

....part of the key inter-markets.

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trade wind said:


> Sell gold is my mantra, but what the hell do I know, I'm not a believer.




You forgot the tin foil hat?

"fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school" - when Keynesian economic cultists have served us so well?

Faber on the fall in gold prices:

“I love the markets. I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity.


http://www.bloomberg.com/video/faber-gold-isn-t-down-as-much-as-apple-FJWVsQe2RoKY6uT3ysQyxA.html


----------



## explod

> June 2006 to November 2006 - Gold fell from $US 722 to $US 562 - Down $US 160 or 22.2 percent
> 
> April 2008 to November 2008 - Gold fell from $US 1005 to $US 705 - Down $US 300 or 29.9 percent
> 
> August 2011 to April 2013 - Gold has fallen from $US 1892 to $US 1501 - Down $US 391 or 20.7 percent




Not a big deal really just wish I had a heap of the paper to buy more physical at this level.  Figures courtesy "The Privateer Newsletter"

Got a bit excited earlier when the Demons hit the front  but out of puff now.  Looking for a flag by 2025


----------



## young-gun

Trade wind said:


> I'm not a gold investor, but I just can't help putting in my two cents worth (ooops, I mean, my 0.0000125 ounces worth). Of all the illogical markets in an often illogical investment world, gold is the most difficult to fathom, driven overwhelmingly by sentiment with little or no regard to fundamentals.
> 
> Where is gold heading? Who the hell knows, but is it really worth $1500, $1600, $2000 or even $200? Hell no. The main thing that props up the gold price is the antiquated and mistaken belief that gold is the only true safe haven investment in times of economic turmoil. This belief is based largely on the old gold standard, long since buried and rightly so, for it resulted in prolonged and frequent depressions, as countries struggled to adjust their economies under the burden of a single currency, much like present-day Europe is discovering under the Euro.
> 
> But this doesn't stop central banks from acquiring gold reserves, nor the cries to return to the gold standard, most notably from fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school, and the gold-nut bloggers. These "fiat currency" ranting survivalists, mostly American, are a fascinating blend of paranoid ammo/food hoarders and precious metal speculators spruiking prices that resemble reality as much as their doomsday predictions of Armageddon.
> 
> The gold nuts are the main reason I don't buy gold, for any investment that attracts crazies like that is destined for tears. I think the mini-crash of 2012, and gold's subsequent price struggle, have shaken a lot of them out of the tree, but they are not alone. From respected investment advisors to Indian peasants and hairy chested muzzers, the historical allure and greed for gold persists, though its gloss is slowly fading and unless a technology is found to massivey boost its use a rare industrial metal, long term its price will surely fold more than hold.
> 
> Sell gold is my mantra, but what the hell do I know, I'm not a believer.




I have a feeling you will change your tune in the coming years. I think failure to recognise the importance, and the opportunity in gold is a failure to come to terms with the massive flaws in current fiat currency/debt based system. A system that perhaps could work if we didn't have such reckless lunatics at the helm, and a society that wasn't so driven by greed. I'm not saying a gold standard is a way of rectifying all the current issues, as I'm not familiar enough with the ins and outs of a formal gold standard, but I feel the current system ain't gonna last.



Uncle Festivus said:


> You forgot the tin foil hat?
> 
> "fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school" - when Keynesian economic cultists have served us so well?
> 
> Faber on the fall in gold prices:
> 
> “I love the markets. I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity.
> 
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/video/faber-gold-isn-t-down-as-much-as-apple-FJWVsQe2RoKY6uT3ysQyxA.html




+1


----------



## tinhat

Uncle Festivus said:


> You forgot the tin foil hat?




I don't trade gold but I do trade a tincy bit in the gold miners. I sold all my gold mining stocks for a loss on Friday.


----------



## CanOz

tinhat said:


> I don't trade gold but I do trade a tincy bit in the gold miners. I sold all my gold mining stocks for a loss on Friday.





Yes! I remember you mentioning that...lol...nice one


----------



## AdamVW

Trade wind said:


> Though its gloss is slowly fading and unless a technology is found to massivey boost its use a rare industrial metal, long term its price will surely fold more than hold.




Trade wind my good man, whilst there are lovers in this world, there will always be a reckless and needless want for gold.  It will not fade nor be tarnished, much like gold itself. :1luvu:


----------



## nulla nulla

Interesting in article in Fridays Sydney Morning Herald BusinessDay by Malcolm Maiden. On-line the article is headed "Gold Price is starting to lose its Lustre" however in the aforementioned paper the article was titled *"Smart money betting against gold".*

http://www.smh.com.au/business/gold-price-starting-to-lose-its-lustre-20130411-2hogg.html

Mr Maiden indicates that the big banks, Goldman, Citigroup and Societe Generale, believe gold has run its time as the world is kicking clear of the global crisis. Further, last week,  Goldman Sachs recommended that its clients sell gold in the face of an accelerating down turn. On Thursday Gold was arround US$1,560.00 an ounce and Goldman were predicting the price would drop to US$1,450.00 per ounce by the end of 2013 and would drop further to $1,270.00 by the end of 2014.

Societe Generale are credited with puting a 2013 target of $1,375 per ounce and has the potential to fall a 20-30% from the $1,560 (?) levels.


In another article Mr Maiden describes the exodus from Gold to "safe haven" shares (this helps explain the irrational price climb of some A-REIT's on Friday) with the price dropping $60.00 on friday, with concerns for draft plans for the sale of some of Cyprus gold reserves..

"Gold sank more than 5 per cent on Friday, entering bear-market territory as institutional investors fled bullion in favour of other safe-haven assets amid concerns about central bank sales and souring sentiment."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...t-territory-20130413-2hruc.html#ixzz2QNeloTDt

It would not surprise me if the likes of Goldman Sachs, having exited their own gold positions and recommended to their clients to get out of gold, that Goldman Sachs are now shorting gold *("Smart money betting against gold"*). I imagine the rush for the door by Goldman Sachs clients would have a sudden and noticeable impact on the gold price. Their prediction of $1,450.00 per ounce, before Fridays fall, is now only $30.00 off the mark and 8 months ahead of schedule.

I also find it amazing that the big banks consider that the world is kicking clear of the global financial crisis in the face of all the economic data, bailouts, quantative easing and fiscal cliffs. Talk about irrational exuberance, another bubble forming?


----------



## Bintang

All smells like price manipulation to me but if you have the nerve it could be one of the greatest buying opportunities ever.


----------



## explod

> Nulla nulla
> 
> In another article Mr Maiden describes the exodus from Gold to "safe haven" shares (this helps explain the irrational price climb of some A-REIT's on Friday) with the price dropping $60.00 on friday, with concerns for draft plans for the sale of some of Cyprus gold reserves..



Amazes me the b/s coming from so called financial adviser/journos.  In the bigger scheme the 400 tonnes of cyprus gold is valued in the millions yet the debt problems are in the billions.

Interestingly the US flew the stealth bomber along the border of North Korea to stir the chickens just as the real picture in Cyprus was being realised.  From there it did not take long to realise that the paper system and its lack of physical, and then by implication the protection of the US by the PPP, were in big trouble.

The volumes on gold will be interesting this week, and late last, the word is that the demand for physical has never been at such a level.   Worth keeping in mind that there are now about 100 paper contracts to an ounce of physical gold, silver is now more than double that.  So anyone holding ETF's really hold nothing in my view, when it all blows the game will be over.

Most of my info is from Harvey Organ who is easy to access and puts the basics out there well.


----------



## explod

The following is with very greatful acknowledgement to the "Privateer Newsletter"  

And it is with sadness in my view that they report today that the newsletter is closing down after 30 years of excellent financial commentary and in my view education.  The website may, they report, continue after a well deserved rest in some way in the future; hopefully.

Anyhoow, back on topic, this is a very good surmation.



> Since the beginning of April, there has been a steady drumbeat of major global commercial banks and
> investment houses “downgrading” their future Gold price projections. The one from Goldman Sachs on
> April 10 was just another one. But it did contain one detail that were missing from the releases from other
> financial institutions. Goldman Sachs publicly announced that they had cancelled their “bullish outlook” on
> Gold and advised their clients to seriously contemplate selling Gold short in the futures markets.
> 
> A glance at the volume for April 12 shows how seriously their clients took this advice. Over the first four
> days of the week (including the big dump on April 10), daily volume on the Comex had averaged just under
> 152,000 contracts. On April 12, the volume was 392,000 contracts. We don’t know how much the Access
> markets added to this price action. One (non mainstream) Gold analyst put the situation like this: “Without
> Goldman’s very public call to short gold when it was most vulnerable, there is no way gold would have
> broken down today.” Indeed, the mainstream financial media was struggling to find a “reason”. Not being
> able to unearth one, they fell back on the Cyprus Gold selling tale of two days earlier.
> 
> Again, we see modern “financial management” in action. The recipe is simple. Protect the paper “assets”
> on the balance sheets of central and commercial banks from REAL markets no matter what. Meanwhile,
> use paper claims to Gold (and Silver) to control both the price and the attitude of the public towards them.




http://www.the-privateer.com/


----------



## Uncle Festivus

tinhat said:


> I don't trade gold but I do trade a tincy bit in the gold miners. I sold all my gold mining stocks for a loss on Friday.




I havn't held any gold equities for about 3 years now, but things are starting to look tempting again?

Kyle Bass thinks the latest currency salvo fired by Japan will be the beginning of the end of <insert your favourite QE financed bubble here>, so expect more (co-ordinated??) negative press and predictions (about gold) from the usual suspects as they try to maintain the ponzi to the very last. Has Lava Girl had her turn yet??

This is 2 years old but still relevent - 

Dallas hedge-fund manager J. Kyle Bass helped advise the University of Texas Investment Management Co. on *taking delivery *of 6,643 gold bars, worth $991.7 million yesterday, that are stored in a bank warehouse in New York. 
----

And this is the retort of the ponzi clubsters - 

“The call to *take delivery *is more of a challenge to the system and it borders on the *anarchistic*,” said Ralph Preston, a principal at Heritage West Financial Inc., a San Diego company that specializes in futures trading. “It’s like the Republicans trying to overturn President Obama over the birth certificate issue. It’s *poor sportsmanship*.”

Expect to see more big *taking delivery* type articles from now on as the Comex is tested?

Tags
FRAUD CORRUPTION GREECE EURO CRIMINALITY GOLDMAN SACHS JP MORGAN


----------



## AdamVW

Bintang said:


> All smells like price manipulation to me but if you have the nerve it could be one of the greatest buying opportunities ever.




Yes, I smell a rat too Bintang. I may be a newby but sometimes you just have to go on your gut instinct.  I remember, what 2 years ago, when the call was on that fuel prices were going to approach $2.00 a litre by the end of the year.......they actually went down from $1.50 to around $1.30.

I have been a little nervous about my SAR holdings, small as they may be, but I am going to hang onto them, I don't believe that this period is going to be as long lived or severe as is being broadcast, scaremongerers and schemers at play I feel.


----------



## Bintang

I guess I could be accused of being in the conspiracy theory camp by saying that I smell price manipulation. My natural inclination is to eschew conspiracy theories but the price action in Gold on Friday seemed too extreme and the main stream media reasons given for it too flimsy - such as Cyprus selling a paltry 10 tonnes (ROFL) - that I find it hard to believe this is all driven by 'natural market forces'. If it is all manipulation I guess the price can still go lower so I'm not rushing to buy gold just yet but I am buying dividend paying Gold mining shares.


----------



## CanOz

The price action on gold was extreme because of the stops that we taken out. How is this manipulation. Is manipulation when the price action goes against your theory of why it should be going in the opposite direction?

The GOLD contract is among the most liquid contracts in world, to be able to manipulate this would take pockets so deep, that when sprung a bad trade would make the London whale look like a farking minnow....

CanOz


----------



## Bintang

CanOz said:


> The price action on gold was extreme because of the stops that we taken out. How is this manipulation. Is manipulation when the price action goes against your theory of why it should be going in the opposite direction?
> 
> The GOLD contract is among the most liquid contracts in world, to be able to manipulate this would take pockets so deep, that when sprung a bad trade would make the London whale look like a farking minnow....
> 
> CanOz




I think the deep enough pockets exist.


----------



## burglar

Bintang said:


> I think the deep enough pockets exist.




How does this help you?


----------



## young-gun

CanOz said:


> The price action on gold was extreme because of the stops that we taken out. How is this manipulation. Is manipulation when the price action goes against your theory of why it should be going in the opposite direction?
> 
> The GOLD contract is among the most liquid contracts in world, to be able to manipulate this would take pockets so deep, that when sprung a bad trade would make the London whale look like a farking minnow....
> 
> CanOz




The price can be manipulated without even entering the market? Just generate enough bad media and a bit of fear and away you go.


----------



## kid hustlr

Have enjoyed reading the last page of this thread.


----------



## nulla nulla

Another article in todays paper (SMH BusinessDay), this time by Matthew Kidman. Goldman Sachs now reported as expecting the "value of bullion will decline to US$1,200.00 per ounce over the course of the next few years". 

The target price is getting lower.


----------



## tinhat

young-gun said:


> The price can be manipulated without even entering the market? Just generate enough bad media and a bit of fear and away you go.




I was looking for support at around 1560-1570 but when I read what Goldman Sachs had to say I realised that I didn't want to bet against their call in the short run anyway.


----------



## joeyjojojoe

Hi All,

just wondering if anyone has noticed these couple of articles concerning
the physical gold market?

http://www.examiner.com/article/largest-dutch-bank-defaults-on-physical-gold-deliveries-to-customers

can't find any other sources for this above article.

also

http://www.safehaven.com/article/29484/how-the-gold-market-was-crashed

I assume that if the gold market defaults, i.e no gold for delivery, then the paper price will collapse,
and the physical price will rise. 

any thoughts?


----------



## FlyingFox

joeyjojojoe said:


> Hi All,
> 
> just wondering if anyone has noticed these couple of articles concerning
> the physical gold market?
> 
> http://www.examiner.com/article/largest-dutch-bank-defaults-on-physical-gold-deliveries-to-customers
> 
> can't find any other sources for this above article.
> 
> also
> 
> http://www.safehaven.com/article/29484/how-the-gold-market-was-crashed
> 
> I assume that if the gold market defaults, i.e no gold for delivery, then the paper price will collapse,
> and the physical price will rise.
> 
> any thoughts?




I was meaning to ask this yesterday but the forum was playing up for me and I couldn't post a reply. I wonder if anyone knows whether the banks are selling their physical inventories or just paper positions?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> The price action on gold was extreme because of the stops that we taken out. How is this manipulation. Is manipulation when the price action goes against your theory of why it should be going in the opposite direction?
> 
> The GOLD contract is among the most liquid contracts in world, to be able to manipulate this would take pockets so deep, that when sprung a bad trade would make the London whale look like a farking minnow....
> 
> CanOz




And the "London Whale" was employed by <drum roll> JP Morgan......they have deep pockets (essentially the US Fed & Treasury) to trade (term used very loosely) the gold market, until that is...somebody, or everybody perhaps, wants to take delivery?



joeyjojojoe said:


> I assume that if the gold market defaults, i.e no gold for delivery, then the paper price will collapse,
> and the physical price will rise.
> 
> any thoughts?






FlyingFox said:


> I wonder if anyone knows whether the banks are selling their physical inventories or just paper positions?




We shall soon see who has the physical to back the paper? Things are going to get nasty now - expect more front running from "pre-data release insiders email group" members JPM & GS etc, and as we all know by now they are probably doing the exact opposite, at their target price of course.


----------



## explod

joeyjojojoe said:


> Hi All,
> 
> 
> I assume that if the gold market defaults, i.e no gold for delivery, then the paper price will collapse,
> and the physical price will rise.
> 
> any thoughts?




Yes this is correct.

In effect contemplate (early Friday did the sum will have altered on Sat morn take down) Aussie silver spot $27.50 an ounce,  physical at a dealer up to $45


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> We shall soon see who has the physical to back the paper?




Who cares. Paper is settled in cash you don't need physical.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Who cares. Paper is settled in cash you don't need physical.





Who cares about cash it is just paper and the printing presses are certainly diluting that.

The Japs trying to outdo the yanks the last month has just turned up the knob.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Who cares about cash it is just paper and the printing presses are certainly diluting that.
> 
> The Japs trying to outdo the yanks the last month has just turned up the knob.




well the Aussie is doing just fine.... again... Cannot say that about AUD gold though.... gee that must hurt hey? After all this time.....


----------



## joeyjojojoe

Uncle Festivus said:


> We shall soon see who has the physical to back the paper?




If things are about to get nasty...then should this mark a bottom in the gold stocks?


----------



## chops_a_must

It's like you can change the words, and you can change the thread, but the structure of sentences are invariably the same.

And they almost always say one thing: I've done or am doing some dough and it's everyone and everything else's fault but my own. But I'll keep looking for anything that can confirm my bias, whilst I keep losing money.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> well the Aussie is doing just fine.... again... Cannot say that about AUD gold though.... gee that must hurt hey? After all this time.....




I purchased my first 5 kilo bar of silver for $800 in 2004, "lookin good Les"

Dont' like gold either, could be confiscated one day.

Sitting at the easel painting in the bush is much more relaxing too.

Wanna game of ping pong T/h ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Wanna game of ping pong T/h ?




Well I'll be in Bendigo next weekend so maybe.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Well I'll be in Bendigo next weekend so maybe.




Gone to Inglewood, too much action in Bendigo, think the Bridgewater pub have a table. 

Off topic agin ploddy


----------



## young-gun

chops_a_must said:


> It's like you can change the words, and you can change the thread, but the structure of sentences are invariably the same.
> 
> And they almost always say one thing: I've done or am doing some dough and it's everyone and everything else's fault but my own. But I'll keep looking for anything that can confirm my bias, whilst I keep losing money.




I can't imagine there would be to many 'losing money'. Most on bullion buyers here have been buying for years from what I've seen. 

Looks like  we could be in for a rough ride again today.  Goldman might hit there target by end of the month?  they're likely trying to flush everyone out and buy up cheap for themselves.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> well the Aussie is doing just fine.... again... Cannot say that about AUD gold though.... gee that must hurt hey? After all this time.....




Only down a cent so far on China GDP big-miss? I thought the world was recovering?

The game is just starting......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Who cares. Paper is settled in cash you don't need physical.




Gold futures provide a mechanism for taking physical delivery in accordance with details of the contract from licensed depositories.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/goldfutures/gold-futures.html


----------



## Joules MM1

err, only 15 more days to avoid Reality Phase .......




http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/11_The_Stunning_Roadmap_to_$500_Silver_&_$8,000_Gold.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Gold futures provide a mechanism for taking physical delivery in accordance with details of the contract from licensed depositories.
> 
> http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/goldfutures/gold-futures.html




Yes but you don't have to cough up physical. You just roll to the next month or close for cash. Only a tiny amount gets swapped.


----------



## Joules MM1

my suggested addition to that post:

speculation golds a buy, golds def a buy, everyone gets long, some doubt, some selling, a lot of doubt and a lot of selling, everyone gets short..... 

for those of us trading the price and not the opine, well .......done


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes but you don't have to cough up physical. You just roll to the next month or close for cash. Only a tiny amount gets swapped.




Yes I know, but what if the :fan and the other side had just expected the contract to be rolled but then demanded delivery, and, they don't have it to deliver?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes I know, but what if the :fan and the other side had just expected the contract to be rolled but then demanded delivery, and, they don't have it to deliver?




well then ............. :flush:

I do think the more likely case is the Futs price would just go up till there is a market to cover any call for delivery. But we are in interesting times so maybe we will see ...... one day.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> well then ............. :flush:
> 
> I do think the more likely case is the Futs price would just go up till there is a market to cover any call for delivery. But we are in interesting times so maybe we will see ...... one day.




In a proper functioning market, yes. For now we just have to wait for Lava Girl & the Squid to decide what comes next


----------



## notting

Gold as at record highs against the Yen!


----------



## skyQuake

Some very violent moves!


----------



## young-gun

Interesting article(for the conspiracy theorist?):

http://goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250


----------



## ROE

young-gun said:


> Interesting article(for the conspiracy theorist?):
> 
> http://goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250





When Gold rally we told you so, I am a bloody genius I can predict the future, fiat money worthless etc...etc..when it crash hmm must be something else at play...people manipulating the market or conspiracy ... 

So gold caller never wrong because on the way up they are right, on the way down it's something else at play


----------



## CanOz

I've got a nice little video of GC 06-13 (little @ 4gb) that shows that its mostly lots of stops getting hit. 

I need to find the time to resize it and then i'll post it for all to see.

CanOz


----------



## nulla nulla

US$1,374.99 per ounce. Down another 8.5%. Thats a fair few stop losses being hit, no doubt the sells that are triggered also trigger more stip losses as they are in turn sold out. 

Looks like xmas 2014 came early to Goldman Sachs. I wonder if they are closing out any of their shorts yet?


----------



## chops_a_must

The gold bugs are missing the story here.

Despite the calls of fiat currency death, printing presses etc. we aren't inflating. We aren't even close.

It's becoming more and more apparent that if we can't get any inflation with the presses running in overdrive, that there is something else at play. And I don't think it's bullish for gold.


----------



## nulla nulla

US$1,362.90 per ounce. Given the time lapse since my earlier post this morning, maybe the price is starting to level off? Does anyone expect a bounce, dead cat or otherwise?

Edit: Now down to US$1,356.90, maybe it hasn't levelled off yet afterall.


----------



## nulla nulla

Now down to US$1,347.50 per ounce, maybe we should sing Credence Clearwater Revival "Who'll stop the rain" and substitute "price" for "rain". 

Just goes to show what you can do with deep pockets, a bit of media coverage and a big client base willing to follow your lead. They must be making billions as we speak.


----------



## CanOz

nulla nulla said:


> Now down to US$1,347.50 per ounce, maybe we should sing Credence Clearwater Revival "Who'll stop the rain" and substitute "price" for "rain".
> 
> Just goes to show what you can do with deep pockets, a bit of media coverage and a big client base willing to follow your lead. They must be making billions as we speak.




Change it to PAIN...lol

Imagine the margin calls...


----------



## nulla nulla

CanOz said:


> Change it to PAIN...lol
> 
> Imagine the margin calls...




Yeah, more forced sells, more falls through stop losses and more sells again. A repeating cycle, where is the bottom?

Now back to US$1,352.00, maybee....just maybeeeee...  Although the chart looks like crap.





Strewth!!!!


----------



## bigdog

Gold prices dropped $140 to $1,361 an ounce, a 9 percent fall. 

Gold has now slumped $203 an ounce over the past two days.


----------



## CanOz

bigdog said:


> Gold prices dropped $140 to $1,361 an ounce, a 9 percent fall.
> 
> Gold has now slumped $203 an ounce over the past two days.




Looks like John Paulson's fund has lost a billion dollars on gold in the last few days.....now why would a guy like Paulson play in a manipulated market like gold? 

Deep pockets liquidating longs!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Looks like John Paulson's fund has lost a billion dollars on gold in the last few days.....now why would a guy like Paulson play in a manipulated market like gold?
> 
> Deep pockets liquidating longs!




I can't see that he has sold anything yet? Not that there is any sympathy for ETF holders. Paulson is made out to be some sort of investing guru but from what I can gather he just got really lucky shorting a bubble?

Seems to be a $40 staircase down, rally, then another $40 down etc so far?

Nibbled some more physical @ $US1325/$AU1285


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> I can't see that he has sold anything yet? Not that there is any sympathy for ETF holders. Paulson is made out to be some sort of investing guru but from what I can gather he just got really lucky shorting a bubble?
> 
> Seems to be a $40 staircase down, rally, then another $40 down etc so far?
> 
> Nibbled some more physical @ $US1325/$AU1285




Waiting for a bracket to start, 1302 is still reachable...will update when I get home with some key levels...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee it is jumping all over the place. It looks like the HSI


----------



## CanOz

I'm still amazed at the DX, it's been quiet, balanced for a few days....despite all the action in commodities.

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

Getting closer! Looking like a test of 1200 is possible and quite soon. USDX is not there yet, I expect it to rally the DOW etc to continue to correct and short gold and related positions to be closed out and flipped under the covering fire that a stock market sell off would provide. If that is the case we should see relative strength in PM's etc against the DOW. It is finally over when the DOW is done correcting IMO... 

Quite an impressive blood bath no?


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Getting closer! Looking like a test of 1200 is possible and quite soon. USDX is not there yet, I expect it to rally the DOW etc to continue to correct and short gold and related positions to be closed out and flipped under the covering fire that a stock market sell off would provide. If that is the case we should see relative strength in PM's etc against the DOW. It is finally over when the DOW is done correcting IMO...
> 
> Quite an impressive blood bath no?




Have to concede Z, you have been correct all the way. 

I am astounded at the power of those behind the markets and the fear created.  Of course we were warned right enough over the years.

My sources tell that lines for physical largest ever and of course the spread now between the metals is upwards to 100% in some cases.

For Z


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mr Z said:


> Getting closer! Looking like a test of 1200 is possible and quite soon. USDX is not there yet, I expect it to rally the DOW etc to continue to correct and short gold and related positions to be closed out and flipped under the covering fire that a stock market sell off would provide. If that is the case we should see relative strength in PM's etc against the DOW. It is finally over when the DOW is done correcting IMO...
> 
> Quite an impressive blood bath no?




I remember your 1200 from yonks ago but refresh our memories for that call?

So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?


----------



## aclassic

Mr Z said:


> Getting closer!
> 
> Quite an impressive blood bath no?




cheers Z

Dripping red here.

Oh my Medusa :-(

Serious? 1200 ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?




Does it matter? Are they not really the same thing - just different ends of the stick.


----------



## young-gun

Uncle Festivus said:


> I remember your 1200 from yonks ago but refresh our memories for that call?
> 
> So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?




There's articles popping up everywhere calling the end of the gold bubble.  The fundamentals haven't changed. Things will eventually calm down.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Does it matter? Are they not really the same thing - just different ends of the stick.




I think it does, so just asking Mr Z for his perspective. At street level it's mostly people buying physical than selling, if you go by the clientele at the bullion co's.

Also, all these shorts have to be closed sooner or later so that will be interesting?


----------



## chops_a_must

young-gun said:


> There's articles popping up everywhere calling the end of the gold bubble.  The fundamentals haven't changed. Things will eventually calm down.




Yes. They have.


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?




No, without going to far into conspiracy land the reports that I tend to credit are along the line that the events in Cyprus tripped off enough demand for physical metal that certain counter parties are at risk of default. This appears to have been a well thought out and orchestrated response to that threat, not to mention very effective. I have seen no claims of who is demanding how much metal but I would guess that, given the reserve ratio that some of these bullion banks run, it would not take an enormous amount over normal demand to throw a wobble into the system. Gold is not such a big market in the scheme of things. Maybe it is PO'd Russians looking to pull their cards closer to their chest. If true it would certainly seem that it is an unexpected and unintended consequence of actions taken in Cypruss. These things are not normally thought through to the enth degree, look at the trigger Lehman turned out to be.

So the short answer is ---> It looks like someone is in a boat load of trouble!

FWIW, once these lows are done I am feeling very positive about the next one to two years for gold. I have one caveat, you will need to be fleet of foot, I think the the new game will be to foster volatility to such a degree that gold appears to be an unattractive alternate to any conservative investor. If I am correct the next major high, if it occurs, should be mightily impressive, yet the next major correction will be even more terrifying than this.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Does it matter? Are they not really the same thing - just different ends of the stick.




I guess it depends if you are a trader or investor, no? The former, no it doesn't matter, the response should be to price alone and automatic.... investors however really do need to understand why... no? Or have I got the wrong end of your stick?


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think it does, so just asking Mr Z for his perspective. At street level it's mostly people buying physical than selling, if you go by the clientele at the bullion co's.
> 
> Also, all these shorts have to be closed sooner or later so that will be interesting?




One US dealer I spoke to this AM said that he had not seen physical metal this short since the low in 1980 just prior to the moon shot. Wrung out, they are buying everything over there, it looks to him like a major low from his seat of the pants feel for the market at the front line.


----------



## FlyingFox

Mr Z said:


> No, without going to far into conspiracy land the reports that I tend to credit are along the line that the events in Cyprus tripped off enough demand for physical metal that certain counter parties are at risk of default. This appears to have been a well thought out and orchestrated response to that threat, not to mention very effective. I have seen no claims of who is demanding how much metal but I would guess that, given the reserve ratio that some of these bullion banks run, it would not take an enormous amount over normal demand to throw a wobble into the system. Gold is not such a big market in the scheme of things. Maybe it is PO'd Russians looking to pull their cards closer to their chest. If true it would certainly seem that it is an unexpected and unintended consequence of actions taken in Cypruss. These things are not normally thought through to the enth degree, look at the trigger Lehman turned out to be.
> 
> So the short answer is ---> It looks like someone is in a boat load of trouble!
> 
> FWIW, once these lows are done I am feeling very positive about the next one to two years for gold. I have one caveat, you will need to be fleet of foot, I think the the new game will be to foster volatility to such a degree that gold appears to be an unattractive alternate to any conservative investor. If I am correct the next major high, if it occurs, should be mightily impressive, yet the next major correction will be even more terrifying than this.




Great insight and great call. I have been holding back buying some bullion for a month or so now. Am glad I did but will be looking to get some if/when the bottom appears.



Mr Z said:


> I guess it depends if you are a trader or investor, no? The former, no it doesn't matter, the response should be to price alone and automatic.... investors however really do need to understand why... no? Or have I got the wrong end of your stick?




+1. I think it matters also as a trader because it might help you to gauge where other movements will occur/follow.


----------



## Mr Z

aclassic said:


> cheers Z
> 
> Dripping red here.
> 
> Oh my Medusa :-(
> 
> Serious? 1200 ?




Yes some longer term holdings are not looking so good! This too shall pass 

Lots of cheap and good gold stocks around today. My finger is on the trigger and getting itchier, close, so close, but not quite yet is my feeling.


----------



## baby_swallow

CanOz said:


> I'm still amazed at the DX, it's been quiet, balanced for a few days....despite all the action in commodities.
> 
> CanOz




That's what they call "The paper is mightier than Gold.."...errr what's that again?

 I have a gut feeling that the Vampire Squid and the likes, are it again. knowing that gold is at its multi-month support level, every man and his dog are long gold. The biggest I think is GLD etf. Just waiting for the right news
big enough for "reason" to trigger the sell off.


----------



## skyQuake

Decent reversal in gold and gold equities today. Imo we'll see some good follow through morrow


----------



## aclassic

MR Z HAS SPOKEN

hush now, are there any more words of wisdom?

.............................................


----------



## Mr Z

Whoa... lets see where we close. Lunch time can be fueled by more than a little white collar madness. Interesting that it has been on the bid though.


----------



## Mr Z

aclassic said:


> MR Z HAS SPOKEN
> 
> hush now, are there any more words of wisdom?
> 
> .............................................




Well? What do you think?


----------



## aclassic

Mr Z said:


> Well? What do you think?




I'm not game to say.

Every time I think nowadays, I end up losing money!


----------



## Mr Z

Just picked this up...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...ages_Develop_As_Retail_Demand_Skyrockets.html

Haynes is near the guy I talk to and it is the heart of hard money country in AZ. It is consistent with what I got told this AM.


----------



## Mr Z

aclassic said:


> I'm not game to say.
> 
> Every time I think nowadays, I end up losing money!




Lose your opinion or lose your money eh? 

She is a bloody hard mistress!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> I guess it depends if you are a trader or investor, no? The former, no it doesn't matter, the response should be to price alone and automatic.... investors however really do need to understand why... no? Or have I got the wrong end of your stick?




My point is they are linked. Every two bob punter and his dog has been long gold. Classic set up seen over and over - 
crowded trade = many losers. The big moves comes from the surprises and always seems to disappoints the majority. 

It doesn't matter if you "trade" for this month or this decade. The trade stinks.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Every two bob punter and his dog has been long gold.




and you know this how?

COT data doesn't support that idea. 

The small specs are currently about as short gold as they have ever been in the last 5 years!

The unwashed masses look to be on the short side here and now.


----------



## aclassic

Mr Z said:


> Lose your opinion or lose your money eh?
> 
> She is a bloody hard mistress!




Just when I thought I might have had a slight handle on things,

I find myself obviously clueless.


----------



## Mr Z

aclassic said:


> Just when I thought I might have had a slight handle on things,
> 
> I find myself obviously clueless.




It is a game, I don't take it that seriously, the more I treat it like Nintendo with dollars the better I trade. Trying to get too far into the fundamentals can be such a complete mind f* that you end up paralyzed and unable to trade. In software development they used to call it analysis paralysis, at some point you just have to cut code.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mmmmmm.....what happens if Comex runs out of deliverable - is that even possible? Option 1 = Ask JPM to go short, ask GS to put out a sell recom....the rest will be history?

I did find out the truth though - 

So the collapse in gold is not about gold, but about vindication for a large corpus of belief and economic research, which has largely panned out. It’s great that our economic elites know what they’re talking about, and have the tools at their disposal to address crises without creating some new catastrophe - JOE WEISENTHAL (He's dead serious!)

Well, the inflationistas/goldbugs are really, really annoying ”” all this air of having the secret wisdom when they actually haven’t a clue. And they have been a real destructive factor in policy debate, standing in the way of effective policy by raising fears of Weimar and Zimbabwe. So seeing the one thing they got right ”” betting on higher gold prices ”” turn sour is cause for a bit of celebration - Paul Krugman (sorry, that should be Nobel Prize Winning Economist)

Closer to the truth?

London bullion dealer Sharps Pixley thinks that the crash was largely initiated by a single entity:
The gold futures markets opened in New York on Friday 12th April to a monumental 3.4 million ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract in what proved to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very important level of $1540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen by many as the level which confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to 2000. In many traders minds it stood as a formidable support level… the line in the sand.
Two hours later the initial selling, rumoured to have been routed through Merrill Lynch’s floor team, by a rather more significant blast when the floor was hit by a further 10 million ounces of selling (300 tonnes) over the following 30 minutes of trading. This was clearly not a case of disappointed longs leaving the market – it had the hallmarks of a concerted ‘short sale’, which by driving prices sharply lower in a display of ‘shock & awe’ – would seek to gain further momentum by prompting others to also sell as their positions as they hit their maximum acceptable losses or so-called ‘stopped-out’ in market parlance – probably hidden the unimpeachable (?) $1540 level.
The selling was timed for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold markets including London were open and able feel the impact. The estimated 400 tonne of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine production – too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with sentiment weak following gold’s non performance in the wake of Japanese QE, a nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening US economic data.
***
By forcing the market lower the Fund sought to prompt a cascade or avalanche of additional selling, proving the lie \; predictably some newswires were premature in announcing the death of the gold bull run doing, in effect, the dirty work of the shorters in driving the market lower still.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/why-is-gold-crashing.html

U.S. regulators plan to fault JPMorgan Chase & Co., which served as Bernie Madoff's main bank for two decades, for failing to conduct adequate due diligence and report suspicious activity, Reuters reported Monday on its website citing a person familiar with the matter.


----------



## Mr Z

My understanding is that the Comex can force cash settlement if a delivery cannot be made, it is in the rules. Given that the Comex is a 99% cash market, basically a risk management market, I don't see a default happening there ever. The LBMA is where the real metal moves in quantity and therefore where the real risk lay.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> My point is they are linked. Every two bob punter and his dog has been long gold. Classic set up seen over and over -
> crowded trade = many losers. The big moves comes from the surprises and always seems to disappoints the majority.
> 
> It doesn't matter if you "trade" for this month or this decade. The trade stinks.




Yes but you have been against 'the trade' all the way up, judging from your posturings here?? Similar story for everyone else who stood by the sidelines and watched the stealth gold bull run for the last 13 years. It's 13 years of weak hands and trendies getting thrown off now. There's also a lot of goldenfroid going on too I think?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> and you know this how?
> 
> COT data doesn't support that idea.
> 
> The small specs are currently about as short gold as they have ever been in the last 5 years!
> 
> The unwashed masses look to be on the short side here and now.




You are kidding surely?  How big is the GLD ETF holding? How many specy Gold stocks are being ridden? Thats the game little guys play. Most haven't got a Futs account. Even more so everyone at the BBQ has "an interest" in gold. Everyone knows the story and waiting for gold to go through $2000 on its way to $10,000. 

Just look at this place, ASF. More are long/bullish gold than not by probably a factor of 2:1..... at least! *Think about that with the hypotheses that most here will lose at this game...... *

Just saying.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes but you have been against 'the trade' all the way up, judging from your posturings here?? Similar story for everyone else who stood by the sidelines and watched the stealth gold bull run for the last 13 years. It's 13 years of weak hands and trendies getting thrown off now. There's also a lot of goldenfroid going on too I think?




I was sucked in too back in 2002. Playing Bolinsi and NEM and the lot. But jumped off in 2004-5 when it became apparent that I was in the company of mad men. 

No to be honest I have been against the trade for the last probably 4 years. But only as an Idea. I just don't think for me its a good trade. Not while the AUD is robbing gains over the last few years and because I simply don't give a toss what any instrument does come the close of Hong Kong at 6:15 today.... and every day. The only money I think I've lost on it was a long at the end of last year..


----------



## CanOz

COT report with the first week of April, then with this past weeks....


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> You are kidding surely?  How big is the GLD ETF holding? How many specy Gold stocks are being ridden? Thats the game little guys play. Most haven't got a Futs account. Even more so everyone at the BBQ has "an interest" in gold. Everyone knows the story and waiting for gold to go through $2000 on its way to $10,000.
> 
> Just look at this place, ASF. More are long/bullish gold than not by probably a factor of 2:1..... at least! *Think about that with the hypotheses that most here will lose at this game...... *
> 
> Just saying.




Why would I kid? So you postulate that the small futures trades are a sentiment anomaly? Why? They are still small traders. GLD is 50% institutional holdings, it looks like a good deal to the movement has come from that side of the divide, especially when you consider the recent noise made about reduction in ETF holdings.

2:1, how on earth do you figure that? 2:1 of people that bother to look at a gold thread? Come now, most here don't care that this thread exists! You must be talking a personal bias there!

Gold stocks? What? The same gold stocks that for two years have been trading lower and are so far below a reasonable valuation, given golds price, that its more than a little historic? That is a crowded trade? If it was over valuation I could perhaps agree but the gold stock price to gold price ratio is now below 2008 lows!!!! How is that little guys in a crowded trade? Cripes, I'd say that it is close to wrung dry!

Honestly most people I come into contact with are ignorant of gold or anty, it is just not on most peoples radar by a long shot.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> I was sucked in too back in 2002. Playing Bolinsi and NEM and the lot. But jumped off in 2004-5 *when it became apparent that I was in the company of mad men*.




This is where most rabid bugs end up shooting themselves in the foot! The likes of GATA scare more investors away than they attract. All the chit surrounding this market just curls peoples toes!

If recent reports are to be believed more upper middle class US money is buying real metal, the bigger dealers are talking more of seven figure purchases. For whatever that is worth, I would still say it is a stretch to say that most little guys think its a good play... more like an insane play, after all look at the market cap of the whole gold stock market, it is summin like macca's isn't it?, not much bigger, no room for a crowd!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> 2:1, how on earth do you figure that? 2:1 of people that bother to look at a gold thread? Come now, most here don't care that this thread exists! You must be talking a personal bias there!




Everyone here knows the QE = inflation = Gold going up.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Everyone here knows the QE = inflation = Gold going up.




oh, right, I'm afraid I don't know that.

Silly me thinking that it has more to do with the velocity of money and a couple of other confidence related factors.

but, but, but.... you are talking to the sum total of about 20 people are you not? Hardly every man and his dog, dawg!

I think that gold has traumatized you in the past and that you have not forgiven her, maybe you fell under a gold guru's spell? You trading hardman you....


----------



## troyxlr8

So, is there any money to be made in gold on the short term these days? or more of a long term investment?

I did read a couple of weeks ago that Gold was expected to hit $1800 by the end of the year..


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> oh, right, I'm afraid I don't know that.
> 
> Silly me thinking that it has more to do with the velocity of money and a couple of other confidence related factors.
> 
> but, but, but.... you are talking to the sum total of about 20 people are you not? Hardly every man and his dog, dawg!
> 
> I think that gold has traumatized you in the past and that you have not forgiven her, maybe you fell under a gold guru's spell? You trading hardman you....




Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:


----------



## young-gun

chops_a_must said:


> Yes. They have.




Exactly what do you believe has changed??


----------



## troyxlr8

Trembling Hand said:


> Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:




So aren't you hardcore traders meant to be watching ticks or candles or something isn't of trading insults?


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:




Awwwwww.... 

Don't be shearing with a chainsaw, its a little hard on the spectators.

You seemed a little out of argument so I went for some levity, forgive me.


----------



## chops_a_must

young-gun said:


> Exactly what do you believe has changed??




That we are deflating.

Not inflating.


----------



## jancha

Trembling Hand said:


> Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:




Yes I can testify to that.....let the games begin!  lol 
Good posting Z


----------



## Mr Z

chops_a_must said:


> That we are deflating.
> 
> Not inflating.




It is not quite that cut and dried.


----------



## young-gun

chops_a_must said:


> That we are deflating.
> 
> Not inflating.




Hasn't that always been the case? It's exactly what the central banks have been printing against all this time. I think the more common belief among gold bugs is that deflation will tighten its grasp for a second round, rattle the global economy(taking gold down with it temporarily) at which point central bankers ramp up the presses to the point of no return, as they seem hell bent on not allowing us to slip into a cleansing depression.

At least that what I believe may play out


----------



## CanOz

The monthly and weekly Volume Weighted Average Price show some areas of resistance now, but the biggest trading opportunity would be the GAP from Monday night.

You would expect the gap to be tested and it would be resistance then support for higher prices.

So far we're not seeing a massive short covering rally, but we have started to bracket around the action from the this week.

There are some key levels to watch, on the right hand side.

The last chart is the Market Profile for today's Globex session, "value" has been accepted in this area so far, this is a good sign for the bulls. The market must bracket (Range) before it can trend again. Price can seek value at the top of the bracket and either reverse, establish value, or accelerate through and establish value higher.

Opposite for the bottom of the range. For now, odds favor a bracket...

CanOz

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Gold is making its move to close that gap...Looks like some shorts running for cover now too


----------



## Uncle Festivus

chops_a_must said:


> That we are deflating.
> 
> Not inflating.




I think for the mainstream populace who get bombarded, and believe, the usual 'gold as an inflation hedge' story will be dissapointed because the situation has progressed passed that paradigm and is heading towards simply preservation of wealth or more importantly in some countries, theft of wealth. 

For the inflation meme to take hold the QE has to get out into the wider system, which from the various M aggregates, it does not appear to be so ie as per Zed man, where's the velocity? The extra liquidity just gets funnelled into the TBTF banks various pet trades like equities etc perhaps even as funding for massive short positions in gold, because there is bugger all left to get a decent return from thanks to ZIRP? There's also the fact that banks have _still_ been (secretly?) covering their housing portfolio losses with the QE proceeds ie new money probably is only keeping up with liquidated 'old' money? If there was still mark-to-market for banks liabilities ie home loans then the truth would still be very ugly.

Bottom line is, the GFC is not over, it's just progressed to a new phase & is getting closer to Australia (via China & Japan hard landing) and our banks are as susceptible to external shocks still (plenty of stories about how close the big 4 came to getting into serious trouble back in 2008). 

How many of your paper millions can you fit under _your_ bed?

PS good effort there CanOz.


----------



## So_Cynical

I found this little chestnut form 2 and a half years ago..around the time i was unwinding my gold positions.



So_Cynical said:


> (20th-September-2010)i jumped on the gold train at about $650 and have enjoyed the ride (the GFC and deleveraging turned out to be the best bit ) however im not a bug, im an investor that saw an opportunity and have followed that for over 3 years....*i know this runaway gold train will eventually be derailed, this will not be a calculated, orderly pull into the station when its all over...it will be a full on derailment*.
> 
> *We are in the early to mid stages of a ETF gold bubble*...all the additional demand is coming from ETF investors and speculators, *when they decide to start unwinding there positions is gona be ugly*...and i want to be in cash when that happens, ready to buy back in at the bottom....unfortunately for the bugs they wont be.




 As usual my thinking was a little ahead of the curve.


----------



## CanOz

The DX is one time framing it to the recent lows....This will throw the cat amongst the pigeons if it breaks down!

CanOz


----------



## nulla nulla

Not being all that experienced in the gold market I make my observations on the passage of the price of gold based on my slightly less limited experience in equities.

Todays rebound to US$1,385.00 looks like a dead cat bounce. The volumes involved in the rebound are unlikely to go anywhere near the likely amount of "shorts" that drove the price down from US$1,560.00 just a few days ago. 

Of course if I'm wrong then we will see this in the next week or so as Gold begins to claw its way back above the historical support levels. Then again if I'm right, we will see gold test new lows in the next week or so.

I don't trade futures and I don't invest in "longs" in gold mining stocks (in fact I keep clear of most resource stocks). I just find it interesting watching normaly cool headed posters in here becoming emotional over their perspective to the direction of gold prices. In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that the gold price was forming a bubble and now the bubble has well and truly burst.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> The DX is one time framing it to the recent lows....This will throw the cat amongst the pigeons if it breaks down!
> 
> CanOz



 The DX has just made fresh lows, GC 06-13 has closed the gap with 2000 contracts over a 5 min candle.

The gap is still in play, now it either reverses, accelerates through or brackets here, accepting "value"....

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

nulla nulla said:


> In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that the gold price was forming a bubble and now the bubble has well and truly burst.




Bubble talk, love it... and how do you actually come to that conclusion? Just what is it about this that makes you think it is a bubble and that it has burst? Do tell!


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> The DX is one time framing it to the recent lows....This will throw the cat amongst the pigeons if it breaks down!
> 
> CanOz




I think it is close to finding some good support. JMO. Still looking for USDX ~85 sometime soon. Maybe it will not happen but I am a little leery of putting a fork in it just yet.


----------



## CanOz

Mr Z said:


> I think it is close to finding some good support. JMO. Still looking for USDX ~85 sometime soon. Maybe it will not happen but I am a little leery of putting a fork in it just yet.




Yeah, it looks like a rollover, but every dip on the intraday get bought... Glad i'm not trading it, just use it as an indi...


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> Yeah, it looks like a rollover, but every dip on the intraday get bought... Glad i'm not trading it, just use it as an indi...




In my experience the damn thing never quite dies when it looks right or rallies when it looks right. It's like a ham actor, drags everything out as long as possible. Games are played in this market, suck in and squeeze seems to be the main one!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

nulla nulla said:


> In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that the gold price was forming a bubble and now the bubble has well and truly burst.




In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that *US equities *were forming a bubble and ......outcome unknown, for now?

Several regulars have stated for a while that they have been bearish, even naming targets - I had 1500 & 1200 down side possibilities - can't be bothered finding the posts....

There's more to this than what the mainstream 'press' are espousing.....a bit of Sushi?

Oh look, CME have just announced that margins are going up 20% - absolutely no co-incidence at all?


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that *US equities *were forming a bubble and ......outcome unknown, for now?
> 
> Several regulars have stated for a while that they have been bearish, even naming targets - I had 1500 & 1200 down side possibilities - can't be bothered finding the posts....
> 
> There's more to this than what the mainstream 'press' are espousing.....a bit of Sushi?
> 
> Oh look, CME have just announced that margins are going up 20% - absolutely no co-incidence at all?




I don't see any notice on the CME website


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> The DX has just made fresh lows, GC 06-13 has closed the gap with 2000 contracts over a 5 min candle.
> 
> The gap is still in play, now it either reverses, accelerates through or brackets here, accepting "value"....
> 
> CanOz





We've rotated off the low of the GAP, 1351 looks like its in for a test, then maybe the O/N low


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> I don't see any notice on the CME website






Images are not displayed. Display images below - Always display images from bix@roadtoroota.com







The CME is raising margin requirements on silver close to 20%...right on CUE! 




CME Group Raises Performance Bonds for Precious Metals


http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20130415_CME.html


----------



## sinner

Guysguysguys!

Firstly, COMEX GC contracts can be contractually settled in shares in GLD. 

GLD is not a retail vehicle. It is a bullion bank "coat checking room".

Secondly, all the contributions to this thread are the same as always, as chops said. Gold < 5SMA, traders come out of the woodwork to gloat. Gold > 5SMA, bugs come out to gloat.

Meanwhile, net producers continue to bid for gold flow with their production surplus, paying absolutely no attention to those who (read, traders and bugs and anyone else who think dollars bid for gold) believe the USD is at the bottom of Exters pyramid.

Enjoy.


----------



## cynic

Mr Z said:


> Bubble talk, love it... and how do you actually come to that conclusion? Just what is it about this that makes you think it is a bubble and that it has burst? Do tell!




Mr Z,

A loaded question?!!! 

Has the recent price action been a little too dull, given rise to boredom and left you itching for a tennis match?

P.S. Much as I enjoy a good lynching, I've previously experienced you as more forthcoming when sharing your knowledge.


----------



## nulla nulla

Mr Z said:


> Bubble talk, love it... and how do you actually come to that conclusion? Just what is it about this that makes you think it is a bubble and that it has burst? Do tell!




I am buy a humble trader m'lord but over the last 10 years gold has risen like the dough set out overnight for the morning bake, from US$400 per ounce to US$1,900 per ounce then tracked sideways between US$1,600 per ounce and US$1,800 ounce then "pop" it took just four days to drop more than 10% to below US$1,400.00 per ounce. Call it a "correction" or call it "manipulation", call it what you like...but the bubble definitely burst.




The growth since the onset of the GFC has seen the gold price move from US$800 per ounce to US$1,900 per ounce. Sure currencies like the US$ have been devalued by Quantative Easing (QE) alongside the Euro, the Pound and lately the Yen, so by default the value of Gold should rise. However *the market is never wrong *and it looks likes like the market has decided that gold needed a correction.



Uncle Festivus said:


> In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that *US equities *were forming a bubble and ......outcome unknown, for now?




Personaly I don't think anyone can argue with that. Some journo's have pointed out that the Dow Jones is not made up of the same stocks as it was pre GFC but It doesn't really make any difference to the fact that their market is inflated like a bubble. Housing, employment and consumer confidence/spending is all negative so what is the basis of the market exuberance?   Outcome definitely unknown for now and personally I would not be investing in any long term holds.

I'm surprised that non of the "International Traders" in this forum have been talking about the outcome of their ventures (if any) into shorting gold (?) in this thread. And I am not gloating or trolling for an argument, simply making observations.


----------



## explod

When the price of physical gold in the hand is becoming harder by the day to purchase and take possession of, how can anyone say that the real market is down.

The only bubble was the paper, currently about 100 to 1 gold and over 200 to 1 silver.

Some of the bigger boys began to want delivery of physical and some of the very bigger boys could/would not deliver so interestingly we saw the biggest crash in the paper game ever witnessed.

A rumour has it that JPM relinquished shorts and are going long.  It is simply how the big money is made.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that *US equities *were forming a bubble and ......outcome unknown, for now?
> 
> Several regulars have stated for a while that they have been bearish, even naming targets - I had 1500 & 1200 down side possibilities - can't be bothered finding the posts....
> 
> There's more to this than what the mainstream 'press' are espousing.....a bit of Sushi?
> 
> Oh look, CME have just announced that margins are going up 20% - absolutely no co-incidence at all?




I love it when you guys BS on about margins being lifted like its confirmation of a conspiracy.


----------



## Mr Z

nulla nulla said:


> I am buy a humble trader m'lord but over the last 10 years gold has risen like the dough set out overnight for the morning bake, from US$400 per ounce to US$1,900 per ounce then tracked sideways between US$1,600 per ounce and US$1,800 ounce then "pop" it took just four days to drop more than 10% to below US$1,400.00 per ounce. Call it a "correction" or call it "manipulation", call it what you like*...but the bubble definitely burst.*




There you go again, a bubble has certain dynamics NONE of which exist in gold YET. If this where a stock it would be considered a normal correction, given a bull run and sound fundamentals. So why are you calling it a bubble? What specifically makes it a bubble? All you are citing is a price run up, that is by no means defines a bubble. Are you aware that cost have risen to the point that marginal gold production is @ around $1500 oz? What is that? A bubble in costs?

I love bubble talk, everybody spouts it yet so few have any real definition of one!

The market is constantly wrong! If it where not then opportunity would never exist, if it where not then bubbles would never happen.... seriously, you can't have that both ways, after all you are implying that the market was wrong and is now correct simply because it aligns with your view!


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> I love it when you guys BS on about margins being lifted like its confirmation of a conspiracy.




Goldbugs always struggle with that one, they don't understand why volatility would lead to a greater margin requirement, I have tried to explain in the wilds of goldbug forum land but they tend to nail you to a cross real quick! I guess it is simply because mostly they have never used leverage. It is funny that something as predictable as the sun rising angers them quite as much as it does.

Que Sera


----------



## Mr Z

cynic said:


> Mr Z,
> 
> A loaded question?!!!
> 
> Has the recent price action been a little too dull, given rise to boredom and left you itching for a tennis match?
> 
> P.S. Much as I enjoy a good lynching, I've previously experienced you as more forthcoming when sharing your knowledge.




I'm a bubbleist, I admit it.... the media as abused the term to the point of it meaning "price rise", now everyone misuses it, makes me a little punchy


----------



## nulla nulla

Mr Z said:


> There you go again, a bubble has certain dynamics NONE of which exist in gold YET. If this where a stock it would be considered a normal correction, given a bull run and sound fundamentals. So why are you calling it a bubble? What specifically makes it a bubble? All you are citing is a price run up, that is by no means defines a bubble. Are you aware that cost have risen to the point that marginal gold production is @ around $1500 oz? What is that? A bubble in costs?
> 
> I love bubble talk, everybody spouts it yet so few have any real definition of one!
> 
> The market is constantly wrong! If it where not then opportunity would never exist, if it where not then bubbles would never happen.... seriously, you can't have that both ways, after all you are implying that the market was wrong and is now correct simply because it aligns with your view!




Costs: Gold mining costs are not US$1,500 per ounce. In some mines the cost of extracting gold may be as high as US$1,600 per ounce and in others it can be significantly lower. The reality is, mines where the gold is expensive to extract are only brought back into production when gold prices are high enough for the miner to make a profit. 

The market is never wrong, it is in a constant flux. The market is the market and what the market is, is the market. It is never wrong, it is the market. If you feel it is wrong then you have probably misjudged the market. Nothing personal.

My views: I don't have a view on gold. I don't trade it. I can only observe it from day to day as to what direction the market is taking it. Irrational exuberance drives gold up (as it does any other stock) and when the oportunity occurs other market factors come into play and drive it down again. Gold has come off the peak of US$1.900+ to sub US$1,400. That is a drop of over 26%. If property values in Australia fell by 26% we would consider that the property bubble had burst. 

Not quite sure why we are splitting hairs here. Maybe gold will bounce again and continue the climb back toward the prophesised US$2,000.00 per ounce.


----------



## FlyingFox

nulla nulla said:


> Costs: Gold mining costs are not US$1,500 per ounce. In some mines the cost of extracting gold may be as high as US$1,600 per ounce and in others it can be significantly lower. The reality is, mines where the gold is expensive to extract are only brought back into production when gold prices are high enough for the miner to make a profit.
> 
> The market is never wrong, it is in a constant flux. The market is the market and what the market is, is the market. It is never wrong, it is the market. If you feel it is wrong then you have probably misjudged the market. Nothing personal.
> 
> My views: I don't have a view on gold. I don't trade it. I can only observe it from day to day as to what direction the market is taking it. Irrational exuberance drives gold up (as it does any other stock) and when the oportunity occurs other market factors come into play and drive it down again. Gold has come off the peak of US$1.900+ to sub US$1,400. That is a drop of over 26%. If property values in Australia fell by 26% we would consider that the property bubble had burst.
> 
> Not quite sure why we are splitting hairs here. Maybe gold will bounce again and continue the climb back toward the prophesised US$2,000.00 per ounce.





Not arguing against your point but just curious. Apart from the price of the metal itself, by what indicator is the price of gold high/in a bubble?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I love it when you guys BS on about margins being lifted like its confirmation of a conspiracy.




Huh? Who said anything about conspiracy - simply mentioning the fact. Do with it what you like. Just seems odd that it (always) happens _after_ the 'correction' lower ie why didn't they act last Friday in the first wave, or even on the 4 April. I do know how margin works.
I respect your views, there's no need to denigrate with <BS>


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Huh? Who said anything about conspiracy - simply mentioning the fact. Do with it what you like. Just seems odd that it (always) happens _after_ the 'correction' lower ie why didn't they act last Friday in the first wave, or even on the 4 April. I do know how margin works.
> I respect your views, there's no need to denigrate with <BS>




Its standard practise. Its the rules that we all know. Margin is based on historical volatility. As moves in a contract become larger so to does the required margin. It will happen in wild markets and also as a contract goes from say $1000 to $1800. There is no secret that it will happen its on every futs exchange website,
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-management/span-overview.html#works

What I find interesting is that bugs always bang on about how the paper gold is such a dangerous system and just wait till it collapse. But then when they go about their predefined rules to ensure that the market is stable in regards to counter party risk Bugs scream manipulation! Says a lot about the way some perceive the world... IMO.



explod said:


> The CME is raising margin requirements on silver close to 20%...right on CUE!




By the way they also lifted margin on FX and gas contracts....... right on CUE!


----------



## Mr Z

nulla nulla said:


> Costs: Gold mining costs are not US$1,500 per ounce. In some mines the cost of extracting gold may be as high as US$1,600 per ounce and in others it can be significantly lower. The reality is, mines where the gold is expensive to extract are only brought back into production when gold prices are high enough for the miner to make a profit.




I said marginal costs! That means that around $1500 oz the higher cost producers cannot exist!!!!! I did not say average cost, mean cost or any other such thing, I said marginal cost i.e. production cost at the margin. So I ask again, how can there be a massive over valuation, as a bubble implies, when we have been hanging around prices that offer many producers a very small margin on production? 



nulla nulla said:


> The market is never wrong, it is in a constant flux. The market is the market and what the market is, is the market. It is never wrong, it is the market. If you feel it is wrong then you have probably misjudged the market. Nothing personal.




What a lot of rot! Sounds like you swallowed the efficient market theory whole. Seriously man if you think that the sum total of market perception is always 100% informed and correct... well... well I just can't help you. With any reasonable length of experience in the market you should be able to recall many occasions where the market knee jerked in the wrong direction short term. The very idea of it relies on the supposition of perfect communication and knowledge, complete fairyland! If there was no inefficiency there would be no opportunity! I put to you again that in an efficient market, you know one that is always right, a bubble cannot by definition exist! You are still trying to have that both ways.



nulla nulla said:


> My views: I don't have a view on gold. I don't trade it. I can only observe it from day to day as to what direction the market is taking it. Irrational exuberance drives gold up (as it does any other stock) and when the opportunity occurs other market factors come into play and drive it down again. Gold has come off the peak of US$1.900+ to sub US$1,400. That is a drop of over 26%. If property values in Australia fell by 26% we would consider that the property bubble had burst.




Every price rise is due to "irrational exuberance" ???????? Seriously? So now we have and irrationally exuberant but correct market? Isn't that some sort of oxymoron?

Hmmmmmmm, yes well, property is not exactly high beta now is it? Many small instruments correct large %'s in their journey upward or downward. At the end of the day gold is a small and relatively high beta market so it moves too far north and south on a regular basis... its that old inefficient market argy barging around the probable correct price by a good %. The process is call "price discovery" and it involves making lots of mistakes  



nulla nulla said:


> Not quite sure why we are splitting hairs here. Maybe gold will bounce again and continue the climb back toward the prophesised US$2,000.00 per ounce.




Because you use the term 'bubble', this implies an extreme over valuation with little or no real fundamental support for the current price and that once burst it will not recover until the fundamentals have changed. This is not the case with gold, you or anybody else here can't build a case for a bubble in gold.... yet every time the price rises we get "talking head" prattle about a bubble. 

I feel duty bound to take pot shots at bubble mongers who can't support their claims with any sort of fundamental insight. The problem is the inability to distinguish between price an value, modern "investment" seems completely price fixated... where have the value investors gone? You know the ones that back their assessment that the market has it wrong and is under pricing an asset? Warren? Warren? Are you there????


----------



## CanOz

Regarding Margin:

Margin is also higher on products where their normal volatility is high. For example the DAX single contract margin is huge ($22,008)* compared to the EuroStoxx ($3,060)*, during periods of NORMAL volatility. Last years during the Sovereign debt Crisis in Europe, even the DAX's already ample margin was raised.

*These are total margin requirements

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Its standard practise. Its the rules that we all know. Margin is based on historical volatility. As moves in a contract become larger so to does the required margin. It will happen in wild markets and also as a contract goes from say $1000 to $1800. There is no secret that it will happen its on every futs exchange website,
> http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-management/span-overview.html#works
> 
> What I find interesting is that bugs always bang on about how the paper gold is such a dangerous system and just wait till it collapse. But then when they go about their predefined rules to ensure that the market is stable in regards to counter party risk Bugs scream manipulation! Says a lot about the way some perceive the world... IMO.
> 
> 
> 
> By the way they also lifted margin on FX and gas contracts....... right on CUE!




That said, it is a known dynamic that could theoretically be exploited if commodities law did not set position limits on the larger, deeper pocketed players. Would you concede that? Commodities law came about to prevent undue market influence, that in itself acknowledges that in principal the futures market mechanism could lend itself to abuse. No?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> That said, it is a known dynamic that could theoretically be exploited if commodities law did not set position limits on the larger, deeper pocketed players. Would you concede that? Commodities law came about to prevent undue market influence, that in itself acknowledges that in principal the futures market mechanism could lend itself to abuse. No?




yeah sure. I'm not disputing that. I get abused every day by someone a bit bigger and with a bit more balls than myself. Though I'm not about to go all, everything thats bad is bad and everything thats good is also bad.....


----------



## Mr Z

This is where I think a lot of people have issues with the gold and silver market, the position limits seem to be a little generous for such small markets. It is also very murky as to whether they are adhered to.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> This is where I think a lot of people have issues with the gold and silver market, the position limits seem to be a little generous for such small markets. It is also very murky as to whether they are adhered to.




Do you mean, it depends on who (which side) is overstretched?

Lol.


----------



## nulla nulla

Mr Z said:


> Because you use the term 'bubble', this implies an extreme over valuation with little or no real fundamental support for the current price and that once burst it will not recover until the fundamentals have changed. This is not the case with gold, you or anybody else here can't build a case for a bubble in gold.... yet every time the price rises we get "talking head" prattle about a bubble.
> 
> I feel duty bound to take pot shots at bubble mongers who can't support their claims with any sort of fundamental insight. The problem is the inability to distinguish between price an value, modern "investment" seems completely price fixated... where have the value investors gone? You know the ones that back their assessment that the market has it wrong and is under pricing an asset? Warren? Warren? Are you there????




The definition of a "bubble" courtesy of Wikipidia:

"An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values".[1][2][3] It could also be described as a trade in products or assets with inflated values.

While some economists deny that bubbles occur,[4][page needed] the cause of bubbles remains a challenge to those who are convinced that asset prices often deviate strongly from intrinsic values.

While many explanations have been suggested, it has been recently shown that bubbles appear even without uncertainty,[5] speculation,[6] or bounded rationality.[7] It has also been suggested that bubbles might ultimately be caused by processes of price coordination[8] or emerging social norms.[7]

Because it is often difficult to observe intrinsic values in real-life markets, bubbles are often conclusively identified only in retrospect, *when a sudden drop in prices appears*. Such a drop is known as a crash or a bubble burst. Both the boom and the burst phases of the bubble are examples of a positive feedback mechanism, in contrast to the negative feedback mechanism that determines the equilibrium price under normal market circumstances. Prices in an economic bubble can fluctuate erratically, and become impossible to predict from supply and demand alone."

Here is the link in case you can't google it :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

As far as I can see, the price of gold collapsed regardless of the reasons, overpriced, inflated value or conspiracies. I couldn't give a rats clacker. If you have lost money in gold or are exposed I sympathise for you. 

I haven't swallowed any theories. I get it wrong from time to time and when I get it wrong I don't blame the market. I accept that I got it wrong then decide how long I am prepared to stay wrong. 

"Every price rise is due to "irrational exuberance" ???????? Seriously? So now we have and irrationally exuberant but correct market? Isn't that some sort of oxymoron?" 

Not quite sure what you are trying to say with this one. I can't see where I said "Every price rise is due to irrational exuberance". However I find it difficult to believe that anyone experienced in the market would deny that irrational exuberance often plays a role.

I also can't see where I have attacked you either, as distict from expressing an opinion, so there is no basis  for the "talking Heads" or "bubble mongers" slag offs. If anything it highlights the weakness of your argument. As per the above definition I consider my comments valid, the gold price bubble popped.


----------



## explod

> As per the above definition I consider my comments valid, the gold price bubble popped.




On the weekly chart it is going to be the nice shakeout, shown as a reverse hammer, we were looking for in this consolidation before the next move up.

On the chart behviour since 2002 we should see a rise now of 65% before the next correction.

Short term speculation does not work with physical gold in the hand in my view.

To the ranters and ravers, the sun will come up tomorrow so enjoy it and let the flat out paper money presses take care of where gold is headed overall and the high speed paper traders have their fun in the middle of it all too.


----------



## baby_swallow

A very interesting article from a non-mainstream economist.
Who and why they crash the gold....

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...direct=false&contributor=Chris+Martenson&mk=1


----------



## FlyingFox

baby_swallow said:


> A very interesting article from a non-mainstream economist.
> Who and why they crash the gold....
> 
> http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...direct=false&contributor=Chris+Martenson&mk=1




thanks, great article. Interesting how self fulling these call from large investors/parties are...


----------



## explod

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...update-the-attack-on-gold-paul-craig-roberts/

In particular a further take on the availability of physical.


----------



## Mr Z

*Morning Sam.... Morning Ralph....*

...click goes the punch clock...



nulla nulla said:


> As far as I can see, the price of gold collapsed regardless of the reasons, overpriced, inflated value or conspiracies. I couldn't give a rats clacker. If you have lost money in gold or are exposed I sympathise for you.




That is the thing though, you are defining a bubble in a single instrument by price action alone. You simply cannot do that, bubbles divorce themselves from fundamentals or are supported by unsustainable fundamentals, you know the things that you "can't give a rats clacker about". In order to identify a bubble you really do have to "give a rats clacker" as to why things are as they are. This run up and correction in price is not atypical of any instrument in a long term bull market.

Thanks for the feined sympathy but it is really not required.  



nulla nulla said:


> I haven't swallowed any theories. I get it wrong from time to time and when I get it wrong I don't blame the market. I accept that I got it wrong then decide how long I am prepared to stay wrong.




Who is blaming the market? I keep trying to tell you this is within norms for gold and was not unexpected, seriously guys like Jim Rogers have been saying it in interviews for the last two years! Yet he is is still bullish, you know Jim don't you, Soro's partner in the good old days when a hedge fund was an exotic beast run by people who could actually run one properly!



nulla nulla said:


> Not quite sure what you are trying to say with this one. I can't see where I said "Every price rise is due to irrational exuberance". However I find it difficult to believe that anyone experienced in the market would deny that irrational exuberance often plays a role.




You need to look at what you wrote, this is what YOU inferred. Of course I don't believe that! Irrational exuberance is just Alan's way of saying that he thinks that the market has it *WRONG!* By your statement above it seems plain that on some level you understand that the market gets it wrong at times. Why you don't seem to acknowledge that "irrational pessimism" is  also a feature of the market I can't fathom. Maybe, just maybe, it pays to do the leg work and actually UNDERSTAND the instrument you are trading. Don't get me wrong, I am a technical trader (my investing is a different story) and while I respect price signals I do go looking further to find out why what is happening is happening. 



nulla nulla said:


> I also can't see where I have attacked you either, as distict from expressing an opinion, so there is no basis  for the "talking Heads" or "bubble mongers" slag offs. If anything it highlights the weakness of your argument. As per the above definition I consider my comments valid, the gold price bubble popped.




Talking heads is a generic term for our esteemed financial news presenters, also known as "blow drys" in the US. They are the "bubble mongers" that laughingly will call bubble on everything but the things that are most probably in a bubble. If I had mean't you I would have said YOU are... yadda... yadda.

Your comments are without basis until you postulate a theory as to why a bubble existed in the first place! No bubble no pop! A 26% retracement is no where near a pop, if we had 70, 80, 90% then maybe you would have an argument but then you still need to work out why it occurred. Granted with those levels of price drop the whys should be obvious to blind Freddy, but then that is the point, the fundamental flaws are always obvious to blind Freddy post bubble YET you have not even attempted to point out why there may have been a bubble in the first place.

So tell me why gold is divorced from its fundamental drivers? Until you can answer that question there is no basis for a bubble call. Notice the flood of people telling why it is/was in a bubble?... anyone... anyone?

Oh yeah and 2K.... conservative to say the least ... if gold goes by its past patterns, which it pretty well is now, it will end the next major rally circa 4K..... but that is a purely technical projection given past data, it could always get "irrational"


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...update-the-attack-on-gold-paul-craig-roberts/
> 
> In particular a further take on the availability of physical.




Odd behavior for a bubble eh? They have about cleaned the shelves out in the US, all reports are very tight on small product.


----------



## nulla nulla

baby_swallow said:


> A very interesting article from a non-mainstream economist.
> Who and why they crash the gold....
> 
> http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...direct=false&contributor=Chris+Martenson&mk=1




Good article baby swallow. A lot of the content has been repeated in the Australian press as well. It just goes to show what the big banks/trading houses can do when they decide it is time to boost their profits and bonuses. 

I was surprised to see the finger pointed at "robots" as the means of executing the rapid sell off. But then it also makes sense when they talk about the number of trades that needed to be executed in the tight time frame to cut through the bidders and trigger more stop loss sell offs. Someone has obviously put a lot of time and money into developing the necessary programming. You wonder if the Sunday action was a test run for the bigger sell down on Thursday/Friday.

The timing, on the Sunday sell down, while most people were "off screen" is similar to some action on the equity markets last year. Some brokers initiated sell downs during the lunch hours trying to sell through the stop losses of other brokers that were typically out to lunch. The triggered automated stoploss sell offs dropping the prices further and the original sellers buying back in at a lower average price.

It will be interesting to see if anyone is prepared to bet against the big banks and start pushing the price upwards or if gold will plateau at the current levels.


----------



## Mr Z

nulla nulla said:


> You wonder if the Sunday action was a test run for the bigger sell down on Thursday/Friday.




The odds favor that, the HUI is leading that action. We need to see USDX ~ 85 before we are in the clear and I suspect the low will come just prior to that event if my hypothesis is correct.



nulla nulla said:


> It will be interesting to see if anyone is prepared to bet against the big banks and start pushing the price upwards or if gold will plateau at the current levels.




Futures don't really lend themselves to plateauing, these short positions need to be covered, sellers will turn buyers and I suspect it will be done under the cover of a stronger USD and a correcting Dow in an effort to mute the reaction rally. 

So far this has been done artfully, it will be really interesting to see how skillfully it is closed out. These guys are to be respected, they know what they are doing when it comes to achieving short term objectives.


----------



## FlyingFox

Mr Z said:


> These guys are to be respected, they know what they are doing when it comes to achieving short term objectives.




And most importantly they have the resources to do it.


----------



## FlyingFox

nulla nulla said:


> It will be interesting to see if anyone is prepared to bet against the big banks and start pushing the price upwards or if gold will plateau at the current levels.




I don't think it matters, they will be among the first to start going long as soon as they feel the markets changing (wouldn't surprise me if they have started already). In a volatile market, if can pick the peaks and trough (better yet create them  but I will not go there) you cash in. The more this happens the more you make. It is essentially a transfer of wealth as per the article.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...update-the-attack-on-gold-paul-craig-roberts/
> 
> In particular a further take on the availability of physical.




Interesting comments. Especially from someone from his background. If he wasn't living in a democracy it would almost be called treasonous ...

P.S I especially liked the Chaveq quote...wasn't aware of it


----------



## Trembling Hand

FlyingFox said:


> thanks, great article. Interesting how self fulling these call from large investors/parties are...






baby_swallow said:


> A very interesting article from a non-mainstream economist.
> Who and why they crash the gold....
> 
> http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...direct=false&contributor=Chris+Martenson&mk=1




That whole article is just rubbish.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> That whole article is just rubbish.




It would be good if you could point out why?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> It would be good if you could point out why?




Haven't got time. About to spend a few mil manipulating my own market.... 

Back much later.


----------



## Mr Z

You big bad scary man you!


----------



## MrBurns

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...-gold-rush-as-prices-drop-20130417-2i0m8.html


----------



## baby_swallow

"Buy PHYSICAL Gold. NOW: The Discount of a Lifetime: 
 Or Why You Must Abandon the Fake Paper Gold Market"

- Gordon Gekko

http://www.gekkosblog.com/

__________________
(I'm looking to buy physical at 1200, 1000, and I'll be all in at 800. Wish me luck!) 
 -


----------



## Mr Z

They are sucking the shelves dry! Amazing response.

The main dealer I talk to reckons that when you can only get 1000oz silver, you know the big ugly pours that go to the mints, THEN the bottom is in.


----------



## Frank D

*GOLD Primary cycles*


----------



## Mr Z

1253 is close to the minimum I expect here. What support have you got below that? Anything around 1182? I can see that happening here FWIW.


----------



## CanOz

In my view, we are obviously bracketing here for now. Markets bracket before trending. If we don't scare some shorts in an uptrend (1st target 1441.6), then the next bracket isn't that far way, the center being 1250 ish....

FWIW, the range of late, has a 100% extension equal to 1182 ish...so a little confluence there.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Gold Ties to Inflation Point Toward $800 Price: Chart of the Day
2013-04-17 04:00:01.0 GMT



> By David Wilson
> April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Gold has room to fall much further
> when the pace of inflation is taken into account, according to
> Duke University Professor Campbell R. Harvey, a co-author of a
> study on the precious metal.
> The CHART OF THE DAY shows how he drew the conclusion: by
> tracking the ratio of gold’s price in New York futures trading
> to the consumer price index, compiled by the Labor Department.
> Gold for June delivery settled yesterday at $1,387.40 an
> ounce, equivalent to 5.97 times the value of the March CPI. The
> ratio is far above the monthly average of 3.35 since 1975, when
> futures were introduced on the Comex, even though the metal’s
> price has dropped 13 percent this month.
> “People are talking about this huge selloff in gold,”
> Harvey, part of the Durham, North Carolina-based university’s
> Fuqua School of Business and also a research associate at the
> National Bureau of Economic Research, said yesterday in an
> interview. “It’s not really that substantial.”
> For the gold-CPI ratio to reach its historical average, the
> precious metal would have to fall below $800 an ounce. That may
> occur over time, Harvey said, especially as more investors sell
> shares of exchange-traded gold funds.
> “You don’t need a lot of action on the demand side to have
> big changes in price,” he said, because the supply of gold is
> relatively constant.
> Harvey and Claude Erb, a former commodity-fund manager at
> Trust Co. of the West in Los Angeles, included the ratio in a
> research paper published in June. An updated version of the
> study was made available two days ago on the Social Science
> Research Network, an online archive.
> 
> For Related News and Information:
> Precious-metal prices and rates: MTL <GO>
> Gold market strategy: TNI GLD STRATEGY <GO>
> Commodity-related top stories: TOP CMD <GO>
> Charts, graphs home page: CHART <GO>
> 
> --Editors: Jeff Sutherland, Michael P. Regan
> 
> To contact the reporter on this story:
> David Wilson in New York at +1-212-617-2248 or
> dwilson@bloomberg.net
> 
> To contact the editor responsible for this story:
> Chris Nagi at +1-212-617-2179 or
> chrisnagi@bloomberg.net


----------



## Mr Z

errrrr yes but.... the BLS has altered the way in calculates the CPI significantly across that time! Hedonic indexing and substitution are the norm now, not to mention other little statistical tricks to keep it as low as possible. Its not exactly what you call a constant data series, it is a little bit intellectually dishonest to base anything much on it. 

.... errrr and, GOLD IS NOT AN INFLATION HEDGE! It never has been, it is a crisis hedge, it only rises in value when the system comes under pressure and safe returns are hard to find. Over the decades real estate has been a better inflation hedge... 99% of the time that is true, it is only when you get the sort of mess that we have today that its value comes to the fore.

That is crap "research" really, very shallow.


----------



## CanOz

Mr Z said:


> That is crap "research" really, very shallow.




LOL, spoken like a true Gold Bug...if the research doesn't fit the view....

I just posted it because it was on topic, i hold NO VIEW.

CanOz


----------



## young-gun

Interesting?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/us-mint-sells-record-63500-ounces-gold-one-day

fits with what most are saying about bullion being in huge demand.


----------



## nulla nulla

*Afternoon: Mr Z*



Mr Z said:


> ...click goes the punch clock...
> 
> Your comments are without basis until you postulate a theory as to why a bubble existed in the first place! No bubble no pop! A 26% retracement is no where near a pop, if we had 70, 80, 90% then maybe you would have an argument but then you still need to work out why it occurred. Granted with those levels of price drop the whys should be obvious to blind Freddy, but then that is the point, the fundamental flaws are always obvious to blind Freddy post bubble YET you have not even attempted to point out why there may have been a bubble in the first place.




Okay, there was no bubble. The price reached a point where support dwindled and then dissipated causing gold to track sideways in a volitile range subject to the optimism of buyers or pessimism of sellers. Then a major player sold down 50% of his holding (took profits, deployed his capital elsewhere?) and the big banks tested their "sell down gold program". It tested well, so the big banks announced that they were out of gold, recommended to their clients to get out of gold, provided a basis for getting out (long term price drop due to recovering economy) then unleashed their program on an unsuspecting market.



Mr Z said:


> ...
> So tell me why gold is divorced from its fundamental drivers? Until you can answer that question there is no basis for a bubble call. Notice the flood of people telling why it is/was in a bubble?... anyone... anyone?




See above, no bubble just a huge market rout conducted in a manner to maximise profits for the big banks.



Mr Z said:


> ...
> Oh yeah and 2K.... conservative to say the least ... if gold goes by its past patterns, which it pretty well is now, it will end the next major rally circa 4K..... but that is a purely technical projection given past data, it could always get "irrational"



 or pessimistic?

I suspect US$2,000.00 per ouncet will be a long time comming, mainly because I can't see too many people willing to bet against the big banks. All they have to do is turn their program on again one night and repeat the exercise pushing, the market down to their previously stated level for 2014.

As mentioned before, I don't trade gold. I stick to equities and trade a short list where there is liquidity, spread and recuring opportunity. I know the ones I trade fairly well but that doesn't stop me from being surprised from time to time. Oh... and I'll leave the postulating to others.


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> LOL, spoken like a true Gold Bug...if the research doesn't fit the view....
> 
> I just posted it because it was on topic, i hold NO VIEW.
> 
> CanOz




Call me a goldbug at your peril! I aint no such thang boy! 

Fact is it is crap research, you take a look for yourself, the US CPI has been stuffed around no end since the 70's, basically it has been invalidated for *any* long term comparison.

Add to that the fact that if you do a simple correlation study you will find that there is little correlation between inflation and rising gold prices. We had a 25 year gold bear market and there was inflation across the whole of that period, yet gold went $8xx to $250. You will not find many goldbugs pointing that out!


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Afternoon: Mr Z*



nulla nulla said:


> I suspect US$2,000.00 per ouncet will be a long time comming, mainly because I can't see too many people willing to bet against the big banks. All they have to do is turn their program on again one night and repeat the exercise pushing, the market down to their previously stated level for 2014




Yes, well. I will be here to remind you 

You assign too much power to the banks in determining the price of gold, a mistake that makes you sound just like a goldbug  These episodes are short term events for fun and profit... normally... mind you this smells a little desperate.


----------



## notting

It's rather odd how gold is the inflation hedge yet as you say, the moment inflation was mentioned, gold started getting caned because inflation meant higher interest rates and gold pays no interest!
Oh but now deflation is the problem, with deflation there is no reason to own gold because real assets like gold will deflate go down, that's deflation.
Economics has always been a bit of mystery to me.

Maybe if your currency is up against a basket of others like the US and gold is down against the US(benchmark) then you should buy gold.  It's not like that is the case now though is it!

Hey the AU must be going to 150 against the US.  Yeah it's going up isn't it.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Afternoon: Mr Z*



nulla nulla said:


> Okay, there was no bubble....




Just another small point that you will not be aware of since you don't follow gold. Bubbles tend to pop with an over supply, yet we have a stock shortage as physical buyers have cleaned the shelves across the world. Every dealer that I have seen report so far has said --> running out of metal FAST. Now don't you find that a little strange if it truly where a bubble.... just sayin, should the shelve be overloaded with the crap that no one wants anymore?


----------



## Mr Z

notting said:


> It's rather odd how gold is the inflation hedge...




No it isn't {sigh} its a crisis hedge damn it! It is insurance.... jeeez :


----------



## notting

Insolently I have just sold my last house cause it really is a bubble and with miners tanking Ausi economy aint going nowhere that means banks, houses everything.  I am seriously considering going to the Perth mint in a few months and buying the real deal!
Think I'll live in a tent with my gold for a pillow at night and a napsack in the day, I won't shower and will dress like a bumb.
Anyone got a room? I'm good company
I will look happy to see you but don't get too excited that will just be my sorn off if I see you reaching for my sack.


----------



## notting

Mr Z said:


> No it isn't {sigh} its a crisis hedge damn it! It is insurance.... jeeez :




That's right, I forgot.


----------



## explod

al







CanOz said:


> LOL, spoken like a true Gold Bug...if the research doesn't fit the view....
> 
> I just posted it because it was on topic, i hold NO VIEW.
> 
> CanOz




Rubbish anyone worth his salt understands that important essentials are renoved from the CPI calculation.

And in the US now they are so bad that they revise down the previous months figures and get away with it because few notice and those that do are not heard.

And on unemployment if a person has not been able to get a job after 12 months they are taken off the figures.  (Without checking it) officially is about 7% but in fact some established comentators say it is more like 22%.

Oh, and we do know that 65 million are on food stamps.

Could go on but cooking dinner.  Will do some real stuff later


----------



## Mr Z

notting said:


> That's right, I forgot.




Well, you know, when you can get a good rate of return over inflation safely why would you own gold! 

Once the safety factor and the return diminishes then people get nervous and stock up a little.

Inflation, deflation, it doesn't actually matter much it is the integrity of the system and the underlying health of the economy that underwrite a gold bull.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, you gold bugs are a touchy bunch 

Armchair economists and food hoarding conspiracy theorists as well....oh no!!!

Just kidding folks...i'll go back to short term trading and listen to your banter,only. Sorry if i ruffled some feathers...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Beautiful trend day in the O/N session, putting on $50!

Surprised TH hasn't had a go at it yet!

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> Wow, you gold bugs are a touchy bunch
> 
> Armchair economists and food hoarding conspiracy theorists as well....oh no!!!
> 
> Just kidding folks...i'll go back to short term trading and listen to your banter,only. Sorry if i ruffled some feathers...
> 
> CanOz




Dats it! Cleatus is gunna come vist wid ya boy!


----------



## Mr Z

I wonder how much of this is going on...

http://www.alcyone.com.au/images/alcyone---aishooghip.pdf


----------



## CanOz

We could see 1404.3 shortly,if it fails we could see GOLD return to test the lows...if we can find initiative buyers then we could accelerate through higher as shorts run for cover...1395 now...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Somebody likes Gold at this level...


----------



## CanOz

Gold tested 1402 in O/N trading, we're now headed lower and i reckon if we break 75 then we could head for the low...


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Gold tested 1402 in O/N trading, we're now headed lower and i reckon if we break 75 then we could head for the low...




Its spent so long stuck between 1363 and 1402, then in the Asian session we crack through to the downside, triggering stops, BUT theres no follow thru. The retest of 1402 obviously saw weak hands bail, but i would be really surprised if we go straight back down again. 

imo can pick a low around here or US open in 10min.

Anyways, just food for thought.

See attached:


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Its spent so long stuck between 1363 and 1402, then in the Asian session we crack through to the downside, triggering stops, BUT theres no follow thru. The retest of 1402 obviously saw weak hands bail, but i would be really surprised if we go straight back down again.
> 
> imo can pick a low around here or US open in 10min.
> 
> Anyways, just food for thought.
> 
> See attached:
> View attachment 51831




Yeah i agree, that's why i specified 76.6 (75), if it pushes below there then i would expect the low to be tested again...although it is an excess low...so perhaps at least the spike high at 46.2

CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Yeah i agree, that's why i specified 76.6 (75), if it pushes below there then i would expect the low to be tested again...although it is an excess low...so perhaps at least the spike high at 46.2
> 
> CanOz




Why 75? I have a line in the sand at 82 (50% of channel)
thnx


----------



## tinhat

The 24 hour chart seems to be following the same script these past three days - down during NYMX to recover during Hong Kong and London.


----------



## Whiskers

Probably range to abt 1410ish before the final led down... test upper 4 hourly bollinger band and bollinger squeeze which coincides with EW 'c' in next couple of days. 

I'll maybe post some charts later.

Where have all the EWers gone?


----------



## CanOz

​


skyQuake said:


> Why 75? I have a line in the sand at 82 (50% of channel)
> thnx




 76 was the area where the highest volumes were traded overnight...that's all. 

Bullish above 1428

Let's see what tomorrow brings, will post a chart or two in the morning as well.

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

Options expiry next Thursday, be watchful.


----------



## nulla nulla

CanOz said:


> ​
> 76 was the area where the highest volumes were traded overnight...that's all.
> 
> Bullish above 1428
> 
> Let's see what tomorrow brings, will post a chart or two in the morning as well.
> 
> CanOz




Hi CanOz

Three questions:

1. Where do you source your charts?
2. Swinging between US$1,360.00 per ounce and US$1,402.00 per ounce, is this to tight a spread to trade? and
3. Is any one in the forum trading gold atm?

Currently US$1,388.00 per ounce.


----------



## craft

What do you gold folk make of this research from GMO?



> Last year we argued that relying on conventional wisdom to analyze gold price movements is naive. Conventional wisdom would lead us to believe that gold price movements are driven solely by the actions of developed markets’ central banks. We believe this view is misinformed and that the available data does not support it.
> 
> In that paper, we argued instead that the key driver of the significant rise in gold prices since 2000 has been the emerging markets consumer. Between 2000 and 2010, consumers in emerging markets accounted for 79% of total demand. Conversely, ETF purchases accounted for only 7.5% of demand and central banks in aggregate were net sellers.
> 
> This expanded framework demonstrates that gold is also positively exposed to pro-cyclical factors in the emerging markets. Moreover, given the cyclical challenges gold’s key consumers may be facing, the value of gold as insurance should be questioned.




https://www.gmo.com/Asia-Pacific/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IIAs8wlv%2fbfj2VVyryvI2XYb6on3to6ZUEG%2bop1M7ainSHY2Fli%2bgOFdGKOukKZ6MwvCgjyc1AQECM4co%2fKso7pTqY%2bRoRTz4vc%3d


----------



## Mr Z

I just scanned it quickly, will try and read later. On first blush it seemed to over look Chinese official demand which is soaking up all domestic production plus some. If we are to assume that the Chinese want their currency to be in contention for reserve status at some point (granted way of in the distance for now) they will want to have gold reserves that rival the first world economies. The evidence appears to be in the process of doing this as stealthily as they can, they are not big on announcing official purchases until after the fact, they seem to hold back until they really have to announce the obvious then reserves leap by a healthy chunk.When you work out what they need to get to first world reserve standards it is a gobsmacking amount at todays prices, and it dwarfs private demand.



The other thing is the assumption that it will remain a cyclical asset in the emerging economies, really it is more a counter cyclical asset in the first world, at some point this pattern should emerge in the developing countries so I don't really know how valid it is to tie Chinese recession with soft gold. 

You also have to consider that China doesn't have to lay down and accept recession, they have a 40 year plus "kick the can" play book to follow, written by the Americans, they have the resources and a higher degree of direct control. This new regime will do all it can to foster growth at whatever expense because the alternate is a likely regime change that I for one don't think they are ready or willing to face just yet. Knowing the Chinese there is a plan.... as the saying goes the Chinese play chess while the west plays checkers, far more tactical and long term. To be honest I don't think much western analysis really understands China.

India is more of an open book, gold really is money there, why they think that existing wealth in India will not use gold for protection if needs be is beyond me. Yeah sure maybe the smalls buyer will not have the extra resources to save money in the form of gold, they no doubt will become net sellers, but there is big money in that country as well.... so.... Bottom line is I'd not be willing to bet that unfolds as they predict, maybe but... past performance etc the world is a different place this decade... just sayin!


----------



## Mr Z

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/gold...e-bursting-norman-Y5aCj~6wRfqi2PNVJlyz8Q.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cftc...oves-chilton-says-rOV~19vGRN2g7HM2UJTgAQ.html

"Massive Passives" sounds like some elicit under the counter DVD.  

LOL... yet it gets better... we are at a "dysfunction junction" with "analysis paralysis" !


----------



## craft

Mr Z said:


> I just scanned it quickly, will try and read later. On first blush it seemed to over look Chinese official demand which is soaking up all domestic production plus some. If we are to assume that the Chinese want their currency to be in contention for reserve status at some point (granted way of in the distance for now) they will want to have gold reserves that rival the first world economies. The evidence appears to be in the process of doing this as stealthily as they can, they are not big on announcing official purchases until after the fact, they seem to hold back until they really have to announce the obvious then reserves leap by a healthy chunk.When you work out what they need to get to first world reserve standards it is a gobsmacking amount at todays prices, and it dwarfs private demand.
> 
> 
> 
> The other thing is the assumption that it will remain a cyclical asset in the emerging economies, really it is more a counter cyclical asset in the first world, at some point this pattern should emerge in the developing countries so I don't really know how valid it is to tie Chinese recession with soft gold.
> 
> You also have to consider that China doesn't have to lay down and accept recession, they have a 40 year plus "kick the can" play book to follow, written by the Americans, they have the resources and a higher degree of direct control. This new regime will do all it can to foster growth at whatever expense because the alternate is a likely regime change that I for one don't think they are ready or willing to face just yet. Knowing the Chinese there is a plan.... as the saying goes the Chinese play chess while the west plays checkers, far more tactical and long term. To be honest I don't think much western analysis really understands China.
> 
> India is more of an open book, gold really is money there, why they think that existing wealth in India will not use gold for protection if needs be is beyond me. Yeah sure maybe the smalls buyer will not have the extra resources to save money in the form of gold, they no doubt will become net sellers, but there is big money in that country as well.... so.... Bottom line is I'd not be willing to bet that unfolds as they predict, maybe but... past performance etc the world is a different place this decade... just sayin!




Thanks for your response Mr Z

This is the aggregate demand chart from their first paper




I think you are saying that the counterbalance to their argument is that the demand distribution has/will change significantly since 2000-2010 in such a way that any reduction in the emerging Asian consumer will be soaked up elsewhere – ie China Central Bank. And also that emerging Asian consumer will stay robust in the face of economic head winds or perhaps a bit of both.   


Personally I suspect the recent downturn is basically a rational reaction to fears over the prospects of Emerging Asian economies and hence gold consumption – but that is just soooo boring in contrast to 99% of the commentary.


----------



## FlyingFox

Mr Z said:


> I just scanned it quickly, will try and read later. On first blush it seemed to over look Chinese official demand which is soaking up all domestic production plus some. If we are to assume that the Chinese want their currency to be in contention for reserve status at some point (granted way of in the distance for now) they will want to have gold reserves that rival the first world economies. The evidence appears to be in the process of doing this as stealthily as they can, they are not big on announcing official purchases until after the fact, they seem to hold back until they really have to announce the obvious then reserves leap by a healthy chunk.When you work out what they need to get to first world reserve standards it is a gobsmacking amount at todays prices, and it dwarfs private demand.




Interesting....I have been thinking along these lines as well. Haven't seen anything mentioned baout this anywhere else. Do you think they will push for a reserve currency?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tinhat said:


> The 24 hour chart seems to be following the same script these past three days - down during NYMX to recover during Hong Kong and London.




Don't tell the bugs that apparently it only ever gets smashed during the light hours. 



nulla nulla said:


> Hi CanOz
> 
> Three questions:
> 
> 1. Where do you source your charts?
> 2. Swinging between US$1,360.00 per ounce and US$1,402.00 per ounce, is this to tight a spread to trade? and
> 3. Is any one in the forum trading gold atm?
> 
> Currently US$1,388.00 per ounce.




1. Futs broker.
2. Absolutely there is heaps in there. Each $0.10 move which is the minimum tick is worth $10 US. brokerage is depending on broker but usually less than 1 tick per round trip.
3. YES!


----------



## CanOz

nulla nulla said:


> Hi CanOz
> 
> Three questions:
> 
> 1. Where do you source your charts?
> 2. Swinging between US$1,360.00 per ounce and US$1,402.00 per ounce, is this to tight a spread to trade? and
> 3. Is any one in the forum trading gold atm?
> 
> Currently US$1,388.00 per ounce.




These are my charts using (CQG) data with NinjaTrader. The Market Profile tools are Rancho Dinero. I also subscribe to James Dalton's daily updates as my educational/training resource.

Value is being accepted higher right now, the GAP is the single biggest trading opportunity. Intra-day there are many opportunities but i cannot trade the US Products due to an unreliable data connection. So I've been analyzing the US markets for practice.

Gold is expensive to trade and very volatile at the moment....a bit like the HSI.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't tell the bugs that apparently it only ever gets smashed during the light hours.
> 
> 
> 
> 1. Futs broker.
> 2. Absolutely there is heaps in there. Each $0.10 move which is the minimum tick is worth $10 US. brokerage is depending on broker but usually less than 1 tick per round trip.
> 3. YES!




I reckon you can trade the electronic market no worries, what are you using for an initial stop 20 ticks?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I reckon you can trade the electronic market no worries, what are you using for an initial stop 20 ticks?



Time stops......... if I can without spewing it up.. 

Actually Oil is just as good at the mo..


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Time stops......... if I can without spewing it up..
> 
> Actually Oil is just as good at the mo..




Totally agree, been monitoring my connection during the day, may be able to trade CL...GC is too wild for me right now...


----------



## baby_swallow

craft said:


> Thanks for your response Mr Z
> 
> This is the aggregate demand chart from their first paper
> 
> View attachment 51838





This illustration should backup why physical demand from emerging markets has risen steadily during 
the last decade. The significant rise in GDP of China, other BRICS, and Asian Tigers (not shown), made 
their citizens relatively affluent compared a decade ago or so.

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It's important to know where the entry is, but it's more important to know where the exit is?

For those in Sydney the SMH ran a story *here*.




That Q at ABC Bullion takes about an hour to get through. I was after 10oz bars but they only had 1oz left. Totally overwhelming for all involved, totally unprofessional organisation by the vendors.

An ABC Radio journo (an attractive lady )  was hanging around for *interviews*.

When there is a genuine bull bust there's just no way of dumping physical, so keep nimble..........

Others - http://bullionmoney.com.au/

As for the gold dump over the last 2 weeks, all it has succeded in doing was to sterilise even more paper money into non productive, non velocity, inertness which will need even more QE to counter?

A little inflation in Japan though - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...boost-burger-price-first-time-since-2008.html


----------



## Mr Z

craft said:


> View attachment 51838
> 
> 
> I think you are saying that the counterbalance to their argument is that the demand distribution has/will change significantly since 2000-2010 in such a way that any reduction in the emerging Asian consumer will be soaked up elsewhere – ie China Central Bank. And also that emerging Asian consumer will stay robust in the face of economic head winds or perhaps a bit of both.




The thing is that the Chinese are tardy to say the least in reporting what official reserves are and by how much they have changed so I doubt that truly reflects what they have been up to. No way to know for sure other than past behavior leads me to believe they are being smart about accumulation. They have certainly stepped up purchasing since 2008.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Value is being accepted higher right now, the GAP is the single biggest trading opportunity.
> 
> CanOz




Gold just took out the 1404.4 and we're heading for the gap, in a hurry as shorts cover...


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Gold just took out the 1404.4 and we're heading for the gap, in a hurry as shorts cover...




Can't believe how long that took lol

<insert sexual frustration innuendo here>


----------



## Uncle Festivus

skyQuake said:


> Can't believe how long that took lol
> 
> <insert sexual frustration innuendo here>




Looks like a woody 

All markets up - did someone say they are going to print some more?


----------



## Mr Z

Don't get too excited just yet, there should be a strongish response.

Maybe we are close to done but I don't buy it yet.

Matron is pulling the spoon out of the freezer.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Can't believe how long that took lol
> 
> <insert sexual frustration innuendo here>




Ton of bergs on the bid to start with, then it swapped around....

Have to wait for the cash to open in Europe now i think...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whiskers said:


> Where have all the EWers gone?




Back to the poor house.......


----------



## Mr Z

EWer's are just feeling deflated. :frown:

They are still waiting for gold $200


----------



## explod

The banter is entertaining.

Have been watching the gold action on the charts for many years now and the drops in price have uncannily arrived near periods when trading is light, early Monday's our time, close of US trade 1600hrs thier time.  Around holidays seems to be another good time for drops too.

Even on Bloomberg news there is some scrutiny of the sudden drop and its reasons this time.  So I wonder if there is any real ammunition left for the drop expected by some during this evening.  Not in my book but it will a bit when US closes in the morning, again Monday but from there in my view this shakeout to the downside will be over.

Just my own particular vibe which in this wild world has got to be as good as the next one.


----------



## nulla nulla

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't tell the bugs that apparently it only ever gets smashed during the light hours.
> 
> 
> 
> 1. Futs broker.
> 2. Absolutely there is heaps in there. Each $0.10 move which is the minimum tick is worth $10 US. brokerage is depending on broker but usually less than 1 tick per round trip.
> 3. YES!






CanOz said:


> These are my charts using (CQG) data with NinjaTrader. The Market Profile tools are Rancho Dinero. I also subscribe to James Dalton's daily updates as my educational/training resource.
> 
> Value is being accepted higher right now, the GAP is the single biggest trading opportunity. Intra-day there are many opportunities but i cannot trade the US Products due to an unreliable data connection. So I've been analyzing the US markets for practice.
> 
> Gold is expensive to trade and very volatile at the moment....a bit like the HSI.
> 
> CanOz




Thank you for the replies.


----------



## CanOz

Nice bot fight at 1415...the ask bot lost...


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> The banter is entertaining.
> 
> Have been watching the gold action on the charts for many years now
> 
> BLah Blah




Is that like hearing but not listening?


----------



## CanOz

There has been some really great action in the depth these past few days...I've really enjoyed the practice. More fun than the Dax.

CL was a bit sleepy this arvo though.

CanOz


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Is that like hearing but not listening?




Well u sit at the computer and trade it and have to hand it to you, know much more than I do according to what one reads here.  Used to know about waves and cylces and Ghann charts once.

I got out of trading, to be honest due to its very sedentry nature.  Was lucky enough to start buying physical metal from 2004 and to hold and add.  

Had a great walk in the bush tonight around the Inglewood racecourse and we have the first local footy social tomorrow night too, 7pm for anyone nearby.  Still not sure if this is the spot yet, maybe Nattiyallock where my Great Grandfather and his Brothers arrived in 1860.  Met Joan and her dog Woofa tonight outside my hut who suggested I join her at the elderly cits next week, like me, well past her useby, but in my humble view all still lookin good this end. 

So I am very sorry to be so un, *but* get off your bl..dy high horse before life runs out and you miss watching the ants get away from the wagtails, checking rocks for gold and sh.. stirring.


----------



## lusk

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's important to know where the entry is, but it's more important to know where the exit is?
> 
> For those in Sydney the SMH ran a story *here*.
> 
> View attachment 51842
> 
> 
> That Q at ABC Bullion takes about an hour to get through. I was after 10oz bars but they only had 1oz left. Totally overwhelming for all involved, totally unprofessional organisation by the vendors.
> 
> An ABC Radio journo (an attractive lady )  was hanging around for *interviews*.
> 
> When there is a genuine bull bust there's just no way of dumping physical, so keep nimble..........
> 
> Others - http://bullionmoney.com.au/
> 
> As for the gold dump over the last 2 weeks, all it has succeded in doing was to sterilise even more paper money into non productive, non velocity, inertness which will need even more QE to counter?
> 
> A little inflation in Japan though - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...boost-burger-price-first-time-since-2008.html




Yep must be over for gold, the sheep are lining up and its in the news.


----------



## explod

lusk said:


> Yep must be over for gold, the sheep are lining up and its in the news.




Yeh, good point, as the financial gurus drown in their own propaganda.

The sheep at nearly .05% apparently.  Give me a bell when it gets to 5% and the taxi driver whispers.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Is that like hearing but not listening?




Why don't you tell me?


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> Nice bot fight at 1415...the ask bot lost...




Matron is applying the ice cold spoon..... WITH COLD ENGLISH DISDAIN!

Naughty Boys!


----------



## nulla nulla

Mr Z said:


> EWer's are just feeling deflated. :frown:
> 
> They are still waiting for gold $200




No, they can't be "deflated" it wasn't a bubble.


----------



## Mr Z

nulla nulla said:


> No, they can't be "deflated" it wasn't a bubble.




I dunno, every dog and his man was waving around back then, Prechter must have been laughing! For all that I only know one guy who can really use EW well in real time.... it's voodoo I tell ya! voodoo!


----------



## Mr Z

lusk said:


> Yep must be over for gold, the sheep are lining up and its in the news.




On a price spike you'd be right, the thing is that we get this sort of thing around major lows as well, its been a pretty good indication in the past.


----------



## nulla nulla

US$1407.00 at the moment. Some shorters closing out and speculators buying in?


----------



## Mr Z

nulla nulla said:


> US$1407.00 at the moment. Some shorters closing out and speculators buying in?




Not across globex hours, not liquid enough.


----------



## Bintang

The Secret World of Gold Documentary.
Now available for viewing at this link. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1366397576.php


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Is that like hearing but not listening?




It's like contributing but not appreciating?

Not that you are alone, but it seems that there is a lot more agressiveness towards each other these days both in here and general society. Probably got something to do with knowing whats going to happen but not knowing what to do when it does - the global recession that is?

We can only enlighten you so much - the rest is up to you


----------



## explod

nulla nulla said:


> No, they can't be "deflated" it wasn't a bubble.




That's it


----------



## CanOz

Bintang said:


> The Secret World of Gold Documentary.
> Now available for viewing at this link. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1366397576.php




Thanks for that, quite entertaining.


----------



## burglar

Bintang said:


> The Secret World of Gold Documentary.
> Now available for viewing at this link. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1366397576.php




Pure Gold!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Why don't you tell me?




If you guys need to justify the smack down in gold after looking at this chart as manipulation there aint anything I can say to help you. I was going to post a long rebuttal of that crap blog post someone linked to with their "proof" of bots taking out Gold longs but it would of been a waste of time. We all know Gold only breaks support and takes out the weak leveraged dreamers because of the evil manipulators who run the world..........  Its never just natural price action that happens in other markets... :1zhelp:





Anyone else who is interested in trading. Have a look at the set up and see what happens with all markest after the china GDP data on Monday. Then its very easy to see why PM's took it in the neck and equities quickly rebound.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> If you guys need to justify the smack down in gold after looking at this chart as manipulation there aint anything I can say to help you. I was going to post a long rebuttal of that crap blog post someone linked to with their "proof" of bots taking out Gold longs but it would of been a waste of time. We all know Gold only breaks support and takes out the weak leveraged dreamers because of the evil manipulators who run the world..........  Its never just natural price action that happens in other markets... :1zhelp:
> 
> Then its very easy to see why PM's took it in the neck and equities quickly rebound.




It is meaningless.  The chart reflects the paper trade which is now almost devoid of any connection with what you need to pay to take delivery in the hand of an ounce bar of gold.

And strange LOL, tonight only one bar available:

http://www.ebay.com.au/sch/i.html?_...m570.l1313&_nkw=one+ounce+gold+bars+&_sacat=0

And those buying physical do it with a long term investment outlook. The bigger chart:

http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/gold98-l.html

Courtesy "The Privateer" newsletter


----------



## CanOz

Anyone try and buy any Thai gold lately?

http://www.goldpricethai.com/

Seems reasonable to me...will have to ask Dionysus if he can buy any or are they all out??

CanOz


----------



## nulla nulla

Bintang said:


> The Secret World of Gold Documentary.
> Now available for viewing at this link. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1366397576.php




Sorry but we sold your gold. Here is some paper instead. By the way, you should spend the paper quickly as we are printing more every day and it is loosing value just as fast. would you like fries with that. Have a nice day.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> ..........  Its never just natural price action that happens in other markets .....




You are absolutely right TH. I was starting to get a bit carried away myself by all the conspiracy theory crap until I saw your chart showing all that natural price action from start to finish. And to reinforce my new found wisdom I decided to take a look at some of those other markets guided by this piece from Bloomberg [bold emphasis is mine]:

*Commodities Join Global Stocks Falling in Week as Gold Drops 7%*
By Whitney Kisling & Debarati Roy - Apr 20, 2013 7:28 AM GMT+0700
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-stocks-falling-in-week-as-gold-drops-7-.html

*Commodities Retreat*
The S&P GSCI Index fell to the lowest level since July during the week, led by silver, gold, lead and copper amid signs of surplus in the commodities and concern that China’s economy will slow. Silver, down 24 percent, is the worst performer this year. Gold slid 13 percent over April 12 and April 15, the biggest two-day retreat since 1980. *Both of the precious metals entered a bear market this month joining sugar, soybeans and coffee.*
Commodities are on the brink of a great rotation in price performance and market leadership, Barclays Plc said in a report on April 19. Gold and silver will be among the weakest over the next few years, according to the London-based bank.
*“Excess supply is the biggest issue so this was a necessary correction like we saw in gold*,”Michael Strauss, who helps oversee about $25 billion of assets as chief investment strategist at Commonfund Group in Wilton, Connecticut, said in a telephone interview. “It will take a strong economic cycle to push prices higher.”

So it all make sense now. Gold being just another commodity has dropped in price like sugar, soybeans and coffee which are in their own bear markets due to excess supply. And below are some price charts for comparison:
I mean it's just so obvious now. Even a kid with kindergarten level pattern recognition skills can see the incredible similarities in the natural price action between these charts.
I'm so convinced that I need to quit blethering on here and get myself down to the supermarket before they all run out of sugar, soybeans and coffee. After all there have recently been big queues at the gold bullion dealers because people are taking advantage of the low bear market prices in gold and silver to stock up. And if this can happen to commodities like gold and silver I bet it's also going to happen to commodities like sugar, soybeans and coffee. I might also drop into Starbucks on the way and see how big the queue is there. I mean this natural  price action observation is just brilliant. It explains everything.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some reading for you - *here*.

In fact, however, a lower gold price is making the problem more intractable, not less. The Fed is diving from the frying pan into the fire. This is the point missed by almost all observers and market analysts. They ignore the underlying flight into physical gold that continues unabated, in spite of (or, better still, because of) the panic in the paper gold market. The Fed’s intervention in bankrolling short interest is going to back-fire, for the following simple reason. The Fed’s strategy is inherently contradictory. A lower price for paper gold makes it easier, not harder, to demand delivery on maturing futures contracts. 

(Note: the delivery process at the Comex is not free and efficient.  The exchange can and does set redemption limits and other special situations without having to declare force majeure.  A minor point but will tend to make one look elsewhere for shortages first. And if in fact there is a control fraud in price setting and the futures markets are the locus, then we would anticipate that the data coming from such a private source would be increasingly less reliable.  - Jesse)

The more paper gold Bernanke sells, the lower the cost of acquiring physical gold in exchange for paper gold becomes. The price of the nearby futures contract will drop to hitherto unimaginable depths, relative to the cash price, making backwardation worse, not better. Ultimately this will make backwardation irreversible. Welcome to the world of permanent gold backwardation. 

*If Bernanke thought that his attacks on the gold price would stem deflation, well, his efforts were counter-productive, to put it mildly. They have, in fact, made the flight into physical gold accelerate. Permanent backwardation of gold, and its concomitant, the re-invention of barter – the ultimate in deflation – will be the result.*



Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone else who is interested in trading. Have a look at the set up and see what happens with all markest after the china GDP data on Monday. Then its very easy to see why PM's took it in the neck and *equities quickly rebound*.




Which rebound are you referring to?


----------



## nulla nulla

Bintang said:


> You are absolutely right TH. I was starting to get a bit carried away myself by all the conspiracy theory crap until I saw your chart showing all that natural price action from start to finish. And to reinforce my new found wisdom I decided to take a look at some of those other markets guided by this piece from Bloomberg ..........."The S&P GSCI Index fell to the lowest level since July during the week, led by silver, gold, lead and copper amid signs of surplus in the commodities and concern that China’s economy will slow. Silver, down 24 percent, is the worst performer this year. Gold slid 13 percent over April 12 and April 15, the biggest two-day retreat since 1980. *Both of the precious metals entered a bear market this month joining sugar, soybeans and coffee.*
> Commodities are on the brink of a great rotation in price performance and market leadership.........Excess supply is the biggest issue so this was a necessary correction like we saw in gold...... “It will take a strong economic cycle to push prices higher.”
> 
> So it all make sense now. Gold being just another commodity has dropped in price like sugar, soybeans and coffee which are in their own bear markets due to excess supply..........I'm so convinced that I need to quit blethering on here and get myself down to the supermarket before they all run out of sugar, soybeans and coffee. After all there have recently been big queues at the gold bullion dealers because people are taking advantage of the low bear market prices in gold and silver to stock up. And if this can happen to commodities like gold and silver I bet it's also going to happen to commodities like sugar, soybeans and coffee. I might also drop into Starbucks on the way and see how big the queue is there. I mean this natural  price action observation is just brilliant. It explains everything.




But daddy, we don't like soy beans...

Curious though, if the price of all the comodities are dropping due to oversupply, why is physical gold in short supply. Slightly contradictory?


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> If you guys need to justify the smack down in gold after looking at this chart as manipulation there aint anything I can say to help you.




So tell me how a chart actually tells you the motivation of the participants? I do this for a living, have done successfully for over a decade, with all due respect I don't really need your help. Now I fully accept that markets move as they do, my constant line to the goldbug community is "learn to live with it, when it happens" and "a good deal of this is natural market action". Naturally they hate me for that ... Anywhoooo by the same token if you look closely at the arguments from the "manipulation crowd" you can see that what they are talking about is entirely possible and indeed when you fully appreciate golds role in the system the means suddenly acquires motive and indeed starts to look probable. Do I beleive it is all manipulation all the time as many goldbugs have it? No, however when you get your head around the dynamics of it you realise that it doesn't take much to train the  pack of Financial Pavlov's Dogs to behave in a certain fashion when you ring the bell. I could go on.... but I know you have probably stopped reading, are certainly not listening and have not got an open mind on the subject. In some respects I can't say I blame you, goldbugs can be their own worst enemy in the way that they put forward their case.



Trembling Hand said:


> I was going to post a long rebuttal of that crap blog post someone linked to with their "proof" of bots taking out Gold longs but it would of been a waste of time.




That is tantamount to saying that you can't, not a great tactic on a forum! I have not read Chris's article, he is quite a smart guy. You called bull**** on it so really to retain credibility you need to give at least a basic explanation. If you do I might even go read it 



Trembling Hand said:


> We all know Gold only breaks support and takes out the weak leveraged dreamers because of the evil manipulators who run the world..........  Its never just natural price action that happens in other markets... :1zhelp:




What  I know is it is never that simple one way or the other, perhaps you'd be better served laying off the sarcasm and speaking about what it is you think you know.



Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone else who is interested in trading. Have a look at the set up and see what happens with all markest after the china GDP data on Monday. Then its very easy to see why PM's took it in the neck and equities quickly rebound.




Hmmmmmm.... but, Gold is not just another commodity, the metal and the market have quite distinct characteristics.

Can you venture an opinion as to why on a busy day gold trades around 70 times global annual production in a day while the likes of WTIC trades 1 times global annual production.

Could you also venture and opinion as to why the ownership of the short side of the gold contract is very often concentrated in the hands of less than four bullion banks. 

I am open to hearing any valid opinion and I will also do you the courtesy of not lumping you in with the small spec's, you know the idiots that are almost a perfect contra indicator, if you will refrain from lumping me in with the goldbugs.

TH, there are very many intelligent people that believe that all is not well in these markets. They are spending good money trying to prove it in the US courts, even prominent officials in the CFTC have come out and said they feel something is wrong here yet they have not got the resources to prove it in a court of law. Intent is difficult to prove to the satisfaction of a court of law, unfortunately the data available only supports "chronic and repeated suspicious coincidence" and doesn't prove intent 

You insult a lot of people with your dismissive "it is because it is damn obvious to me and I can't be arsed to explain it to you idiots" approach. I'd venture  a guess that you have never really delved into it.

Cheers
Z


----------



## Mr Z

nulla nulla said:


> But daddy, we don't like soy beans...
> 
> Curious though, if the price of all the comodities are dropping due to oversupply, why is physical gold in short supply. Slightly contradictory?




It is a supply chain issue, investment demand for the small gold and silver product swings around more wildly than for most all other "commodities". It is not a metal shortage per say, it will probably always be that way, nobody will gear up to supply peak demand because it falls away as fast as it appears.

However physical demand is off the Richter scale at the moment, the dealers I talk too say they have not seen this level of demand since the low before the parabolic spike in the 70's bull market.

Take that for what it is worth.... these guys buy major peaks and troughs hard, this ain't a peak and they quite reliably get it wrong and right in the respective cases.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Not sure if this has any relevance?


----------



## Mr Z

I wish I had someone to buy all my crap assets @ costs  The last car was a lemon, do you think the Fed will have it?


----------



## cynic

Mr Z said:


> I wish I had someone to buy all my crap assets @ costs  The last car was a lemon, do you think the Fed will have it?




Well that depends!

Are you too big to be allowed to fail?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang maybe this will help you, Ever seen this pattern before,




Uncle F the point I was making that everything got hit after the China GDP data. Most things rebounded intraday or flopped around like it usually does. But PMs entered an area where there was *YEARS *of longs stops who were clearly leveraged and so it entered into a cascading sell down as more and more stops got hit. Equities and other commods were not so weak. 


Mr Z that article showing a few grabs of the Time & Sales to "prove" that it was a HFT Bot manipulating the price is hardly worth a reply. Especially on a Sunday. But really the shame is punters believe anything and anyone that sounds like they are a bit more knowledgeable than themselves. HFT bot are always present in our markets - all of them. Thats not the reason for moves, especially the recent one. There almost certainly was a bot Stuffing the ask but there were not butter quotes (melt as soon as you apply heat) They were people doing serious business. "GET ME THE F OUT OF HEAR". Type of action. 



Dudes I just don't know why you are so upset with GOLD. Its a friggin bull market that been going on for 13 years. If there is manipulation its pretty Sh!te. It will get to 3000 one day its just dumb trading and use of your money, IMO, to cry that its not at $10,000 and we are all looking for a dry cave to live in.

But Just look at the chart. The GOLD chart utterly STINKS! Maybe that is your proof of the manipulation I personally don't care. Its just poor trading and investing to be taking heat on something thats not at the mo, going in your favour.

Frankly I'll leave you all to it.


----------



## Mr Z

cynic said:


> Well that depends!
> 
> Are you too big to be allowed to fail?




Nope, failure is part and parcel of my success! Errrrrr and that is a good thing.... I think?!? 

I wonder what lessons a "big failure" actually learns when they are bailed? Do more of the same, it works? If in trouble lever yourself up to the point that they have to rescue you? I wonder what all this chit translates to in "big bank exec land"? I can't see that is good for any system long term to short circuit the feedback mechanism. Can we say "moral hazard" kiddies? Certainly words that confuse most of the street.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Bintang maybe this will help you, Ever seen this pattern before,




Thanks for your concern TH but your previous post about  natural price action was all the help I needed.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Dudes I just don't know why you are so upset with GOLD. Its a friggin bull market that been going on for 13 years. If there is manipulation its pretty Sh!te.




Manipulation is not the same a complete control, the motive and objectives are different, if you bother to look into why you can profit from it. Who is upset? This is a great opportunity!



Trembling Hand said:


> It will get to 3000 one day its just dumb trading and use of your money, IMO, to cry that its not at $10,000 and we are all looking for a dry cave to live in.




You just can't say that, all depends on how it unfolds and how you play it..... JEEEEEZ Louise!



Trembling Hand said:


> But Just look at the chart. The GOLD chart utterly STINKS!




LOL, it always looks like that at the point of greatest opportuntiy, we are acustome to 



Trembling Hand said:


> Maybe that is your proof of the manipulation I personally don't care.




No it is just a chart... it is just what happened, yes we can see you don't care. So why bother with it then?



Trembling Hand said:


> Its just poor trading and investing to be taking heat on something thats not at the mo, going in your favour.




What would you know about investing? You seem to do FA research and are flat at the end of the day/week? Value buyers would strongly disagree and often quite happily average into an investment that is well below what they consider good value despite short term moves against them.



Trembling Hand said:


> Frankly I'll leave you all to it.




Pity, I hoped you had more!

CYA


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Bintang maybe this will help you, Ever seen this pattern before,
> 
> View attachment 51869




Invert the screen, it may help...


----------



## explod

Strewth Z, why could I not see that.  

An upside down reverse hammer and if support at 1600 dosn't hold could fall all the way to 1900.


----------



## Bintang

Mr Z said:


> Invert the screen, it may help...




Like I said to TH I don't need any more help. I'm already convinced that the recent take down in the Gold price was just 'natural price action' like in any other market. How silly of me to think otherwise?
I feel chastened for entertaining the idea that it was all orchestrated by a few big bad bullion banks.
And as for the documentary "Secret World of Gold"  http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1366397576.php that is obviously just pure propaganda unlike the news item from Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-stocks-falling-in-week-as-gold-drops-7-.html which provides such deep and learned insight into why gold is merely another commodity that has crashed in price because it is in oversupply.


----------



## skyQuake

This could be of great benefit:

https://www.coursera.org/course/criticalthinking


----------



## CanOz

I posted this in the SI thread...



> Perhaps if you intend to use eBay as an approximation of an auction market, you should also give an idea how long bids stay alive for, you need to factor in TIME. An efficient market discovering a fair price should do slow and steady heavy volume at the fairest price. A price lower than a fair value price should do less volume (as buyers scramble to purchase at what they perceive to be an "unfair" value") and the inventory at that price should move quickly. Obviously, vise versa for a high price as sellers rush to unload inventory at a profit in what is perceived to be an unfair price.
> 
> The eBay exercise could prove to be an value discovery process, as it would provide an auction market for the physical at the "retail" level.
> 
> Perhaps you could track both gold and silver Explod?
> 
> In regards to the Comex silver price, you would not expect that the current price to necessarily be the fair value price after a move like we saw...the price should return to the mean to test that fair value within a reasonable period of time...According using a monthly & weekly VWAP we can attempt to visualize where that "value" area lies at the moment...for GC as well as SI.
> 
> Here are the monthly and weekly Volume Weighted Average Price Channels. The center of the channel is fair value according to THIS market.
> 
> Let see if the market can test this price in the coming days/weeks. Price can be manipulated temporarily, but not permanently, just ask the Japanese...
> 
> 
> CanOz





Here are the VWAPs for GC...we should test the VWAP, upon that test we should discover whether or not that value is fair or not.


----------



## Bintang

skyQuake said:


> This could be of great benefit:
> 
> https://www.coursera.org/course/criticalthinking




That looks like too much effort. Think I'll just wait instead for the planned sequel to the documentary "Secret World of Gold". Am really looking forward to it. It will be called "The Secret World of Sugar, Soybeans and Coffee". Will post a link as soon as it becomes available.


----------



## CanOz

Lots of bullion for sale at the spot price here....



> Low bullion prices lure shoppers
> Author: Hu Xiaocen
> SHOPPERS swarmed into gold jewelry shops in Shanghai over the weekend lured by the two-year low of bullion price after global gold prices plummeted.
> 
> China National Gold Group, the country's biggest gold producer, slashed the bullion price from 313 yuan (US$50.55) per gram to 298.50 yuan per gram in its flagship store in Shanghai on Saturday, the lowest level in two years.
> 
> Global gold prices tumbled to the lowest since July 2011 on Friday after the Cypriot authorities made a commitment to sell excess reserves of gold. Spot contract for 99.99 percent purity gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange shed 7.17 yuan per gram last week, tracking losses in overseas markets.
> 
> "Many customers came to shop due to bargain prices," said an assistant at the China Gold store. "The 10-gram and 20-gram bars are sold out, and we don't have many stocks left for the 50-gram and 100-gram."
> 
> Another salesperson at Shanghai-based jewelry retailer Lao Feng Xiang said "the number of customers doubled" and gold bars were selling like hot cakes at its shops over the weekend.




$1350 USD per Oz.

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

Slashed?!? to $1488 oz????? WOW *BARGAIN!*


----------



## CanOz

Mr Z said:


> Slashed?!? to $1488 oz????? WOW *BARGAIN!*





Let's see your math on that?


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> Let's see your math on that?




298.50 Yuan = ~ $48 USD

~ 31 grams in 1 troy oz.

31 * 48 =  $1488 USD

?



I tin U have phat phingers!

They *SLASHED* from ~ $1564....

So it is not what you call a fire sale given spot.

PS> Option OI @ 1250 odd is blowing out. Target #1 IMO.


----------



## CanOz

Mr Z said:


> 298.50 Yuan = ~ $48 USD
> 
> ~ 31 grams in 1 troy oz.
> 
> 31 * 48 =  $1488 USD
> 
> ?




Ah, my mistake. I used oz., not Troy oz.


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> Ah, my mistake. I used oz., not Troy oz.




You should be an eBay seller! 

Acid flashback  Kinda like POG


----------



## CanOz

Mr Z said:


> You should be an eBay seller!




Yeah, clearly not a gold bug! 

Better stick to charts...will post the TPOs later with this weeks possibilities...

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

Hmmmmmm...

I am wondering about the US gold carry trade and if it is properly broken now... and if so just how broken, how much gold has actually been leased out. {insert Fort Knox conspiracy here}

Jim Sinclair's recent calls would lead you to believe that the large bullion banks are basically history here *IF* it is left to natural market forces. 

That would suggest it is a large amount of gold that needs to be recovered, IMO it likely cannot be recovered, at least not at anywhere near these prices.


----------



## skyQuake

Looks like gold retesting highs again.

Interesting to see overnight gold went down (from aus session) but the gold miners are doing well.


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, appears that we've accepted value between 1413 and 1391 easily....

Watch for that GAP, if it finds initiative buyers there it could rush through as stops are taken out. I saw CL make a stunning run through one of these GAPs two weeks ago...it failed the first time though.

Nice little triangle at the moment with the Prior HOD as the target...

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

*A little light reading...*

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/bulls-hit


----------



## Uncle Festivus

More no bulls hit.....

The recent price gyration is manufactured to benefit big speculators at the expense of gold buyers in emerging economies. 

Physical gold demand is from emerging economies, but the financial market resides in New York and London; it is a heavily manipulated market. Retail investors must be on guard for manufactured panic-euphoria cycles to fleece them. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-the-flash-crash-in-gold-andy-xie-2013-04-22?dist=tcountdown

The same sort of structural second-guessing is evident in the gold market here – a good example of what forced liquidation looks like, as my impression is that leveraged longs have been forced into a fire-sale in recent weeks, creating good values for longer-term investors, but with continued near-term risks - John Hussman


----------



## CanOz

Short term opps for GC today..


----------



## FlyingFox

Video from the link Mr Z poster earlier.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzzoBVK3fyE

It is a presentation by Grant Williams who is a portfolio advisor at a hedge fund. He explain the current situation in world finance quite well and talks about fractional reserve gold. A good listen even if your not inclined to believe his predictions.


----------



## Mr Z

Indian dealers are reportedly out of metal, first time in living memory!?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Indian dealers are reportedly out of metal, first time in living memory!?




This will please you,

U.S. Mint Runs Out of Smallest American Eagle Gold Coin

Small punters cannot get enough hey.........


----------



## notting

I think Goldman Sachs called the bottom on gold for the time being too didn't they?


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> This will please you,
> 
> U.S. Mint Runs Out of Smallest American Eagle Gold Coin
> 
> Small punters cannot get enough hey.........




What do you call small?

We are not just talking one and two coin buyers here, some reasonable dollars are being spent.

Please me? Not really, I have been doing this for so long that it just is what it is!

Are you prepared for a USD melt up? DOW to strong new highs? All while gold is strong....?! IMO this is not going to play the way MOST people think.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> What do you call small?




Well I'm pretty sure Soros isn't hoarding the most costly flecks of gold bits. we are talking about many small time punters buying what they can.



Mr Z said:


> Are you prepared for a USD melt up?




I'll be ok.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Well I'm pretty sure Soros isn't hoarding the most costly flecks of gold bits. we are talking about many small time punters buying what they can.




We are talking about 400 oz London Good Delivery Bars as well, seriously look beyond your nose, physical gold is moving fast in all sizes. 



Trembling Hand said:


> I'll be ok.




I should think so, for a while you should be spoiled for choice. 

Interesting "back foot" defensive reply though, makes me wonder if you read what I said or glanced over it with a predetermined mindset.


----------



## FlyingFox

Trembling Hand said:


> This will please you,
> 
> 
> Small punters cannot get enough hey.........




Someone buys a tonne or 10,000 people by 100 grams each, it all adds up ...


----------



## Mr Z

FlyingFox said:


> Someone buys a tonne or 10,000 people by 100 grams each, it all adds up ...




TH's view appears to be that small money is dumb money therefore it is wrong, end of story, look no further. Thing is the history of these physical rushes involves both highs and lows, now there is no way you can call this a high eh? So even with looking no further history this history would lead you to believe that this is near a significant low.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/landing/find-real-in-a-world-of-fake-v2


----------



## Trembling Hand

This is the worst thread on the whole internet......................


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> This is the worst thread on the whole internet......................




You come up with some really insightful stuff! Clear thinking, well reasoned, unemotional, hard edged cut through!

I thought you'd left?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> You come up with some really insightful stuff! Clear thinking, well reasoned, unemotional, hard edged cut through!




Well there is only room for one trading guru in this thread, you, so I've decided to just play the fool....

Look I even went and bought some crap in a down trend......


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Well there is only room for one trading guru in this thread, you, so I've decided to just play the fool...




LOL, now you are just being a dick. What happened? Trade go against you?


----------



## prawn_86

Lets try and keep this thread civil please.

The more expanive and explanatory our answers and responses are the more educational it will be for anyone who is reading but not commenting.

Thanks


----------



## Mr Z

prawn_86 said:


> Lets try and keep this thread civil please.




I dunno, it is a gold thread, can it be done?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> LOL, now you are just being a dick. What happened? Trade go against you?




Don't know yet. I've only owned it for 2 hours. Though the poor ba$tard that sold the trinkets to me is coming back next week with a lot more - he NEEDS cash after going all in much higher. :1zhelp:

Just another idiot that believed it was going straight to $10,000......0


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Just another idiot that believed it was going straight to $10,000......0




Its a fever...


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't know yet. I've only owned it for 2 hours. Though the poor ba$tard that sold the trinkets to me is coming back next week with a lot more - he NEEDS cash after going all in much higher. :1zhelp:
> 
> Just another idiot that believed it was going straight to $10,000......0




LOL...this thread has taken a very ironic turn...


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> LOL...this thread has taken a very ironic turn...




Only real goldbugs get that PO'd when gold goes down....


----------



## CanOz

Gold is postering near the gap again....if we get a pop out of the gates and more short covering in Europe, maybe we'll close that gap...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> LOL...this thread has taken a very ironic turn...




Yeah i'm setting up a charity to help out all the poor blokes who were going to become rich "investing" in gold the last 3 years but now cannot even afford to eat.


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah i'm setting up a charity to help out all the poor blokes who were going to become rich "investing" in gold the last 3 years but now cannot even afford to eat.




Is said charity short gold?


----------



## Mr Z

CanOz said:


> Gold is postering near the gap again....if we get a pop out of the gates and more short covering in Europe, maybe we'll close that gap...




Goldmans SS vill not allow it to happen!!!!!! 

Sey vill stomp on it vid dere jak boots!!!!! 

Ve have ways of makin you short! irate:


----------



## Mr Z

Some mutterings about the second half...

Strong USD in a risk on trade financed by those crazy Japanese! Mebe... Stocks up, commodities up, PM's up, Real Estate up, Rates up and bonds down. AUD down in the process  This could play very well for us lot down here. Seems a little contradictory no? Looks like the Fed might finally succeed in getting that money moving, this will not be about economic strength as much as global capital movement. Is the USD the best looking horse at the glue factory?

This could get loopy and more than a little counter intuitive.

I think that Ray has been on the money...

Older article but....!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/bridgewater-bets-on-stocks-as-cash-moves-into-market.html


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> Is the USD the best looking horse at the glue factory?




No.


----------



## Mr Z

sinner said:


> No.




I think you may very well be surprised how this plays for a little while.

Approaching critical levels as we go into the US summer.

I will be watching with interest.


----------



## sinner

Mr Z said:


> I think you may very well be surprised how this plays for a little while.
> 
> Approaching critical levels as we go into the US summer.
> 
> I will be watching with interest.




Fortunately for me, since I believe that gold bids for currency (rather than the other way around) my view of whether the USD is "the best looking horse at the glue factory" is only going to surprise if the Federal Reserve starts a program of buying gold for printed dollars, and succeeds.

Meanwhile, net producers continue to bid for gold flow using surplus productivity, busy doing whatever it is that generated the surplus.

Of course, this kind of story is far less sexy than vague prognostication and attribution to the evil Goldman Sachs. Why not just post a chart with some numbers and leave it at that?


----------



## Mr Z

sinner said:


> Why not just post a chart with some numbers and leave it at that?




OK! So sorry, you take it from here!

CYA


----------



## CanOz

From the Technical Speculator



> April 24, 2013: Market Minute: The outlook on gold
> 
> The price of gold has broken a key support level at $1550 in early April. Though the metal has rebounded off of $1400, the outlook has deteriorated recently due to the higher import tax from India, a slowing world economy and higher levels on the U.S. Dollar.
> 
> Gold is expected to bounce up to the $1540-$1550 resistance level in May before declining again.
> 
> The longer term view is for gold to move down to the lower support of $1250-$1200. The 12-year bull market appears to have ended.
> 
> It is indeed surprising that the enormous stimulus program from the Fed has not diluted the US$ or caused the underpinnings for inflation. Both of which would be positive for gold prices.
> 
> 
> Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA


----------



## FlyingFox

Kyle Bass on why he had Uni of Texas take physical delivery of $1 billion in gold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgNVNTvlpFY


----------



## Trembling Hand

FlyingFox said:


> Kyle Bass on why he had Uni of Texas take physical delivery of $1 billion in gold.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgNVNTvlpFY




His figures are a bit rubbery but why let facts get in the way of a good story..... I mean hell  -it is gold.


----------



## FlyingFox

Trembling Hand said:


> His figures are a bit rubbery but why let facts get in the way of a good story..... I mean hell  -it is gold.




Can you elaborate on your claim? Or provide more accurate figures?

As it stands, Kyle Bass runs a multi million (billion?) dollar hedge fund. Hence I hope you don't take offence but his word carries a little more weight than yours.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> His figures are a bit rubbery but why let facts get in the way of a good story..... I mean hell  -it is gold.




Split hairs why don't you..... jeeezzzzzz, *his point stands and he is correct* IF YOU ARE A FIDUCIARY there is only one decision that is responsible given the situation.


----------



## Trembling Hand

FlyingFox said:


> Can you elaborate on your claim? Or provide more accurate figures?
> 
> As it stands, Kyle Bass runs a multi million (billion?) dollar hedge fund. Hence I hope you don't take offence but his word carries a little more weight than yours.




How do you know that I don't as well? For all you know I could turn over 500 mil per month. But it still doesn't change the fact that gold bulls NEVER question BS figures like in that vid.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Split hairs why don't you..... jeeezzzzzz, *his point stands and he is correct* IF YOU ARE A FIDUCIARY there is only one decision that is responsible given the situation.




Oh thats right facts only count if its one sided. You guys set new standards every day.


----------



## Mr Z

FlyingFox said:


> Can you elaborate on your claim? Or provide more accurate figures?
> 
> As it stands, Kyle Bass runs a multi million (billion?) dollar hedge fund. Hence I hope you don't take offence but his word carries a little more weight than yours.




Nah... the mighty small spec knows better than a guy who falls into the reportable category! Jeeeeezzzzzz what don't you get about his main winning argument ---> "because I said so!" 

WINNING!!!

Charlie, Charlie? Where are you? Charlie?


----------



## FlyingFox

Trembling Hand said:


> How do you know that I don't as well? For all you know I could turn over 500 mil per month. But it still doesn't change the fact that gold bulls NEVER question BS figures like in that vid.




Again, no offence but it's pretty obvious that you don't. People don't get into those positions by picking petty arguments. In any case, I said that his word carries more weight than yours; not that I believe him and not you or vice versa. I am well capable of making up my own mind. 

You have been given the opportunity to prove him incorrect.

Also please refrain from labelling people as this or that unless they have clearly identified themselves as such.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh thats right facts only count if its one sided. You guys set new standards every day.




Yeah.... OK, hmmmm let me see, he was basically saying that the commitment to deliver metal far exceeds the ability to deliver metal on the Comex. Pretty typical of ANY futures market, no? Therefore as a fiduciary  the responsible thing to do is to secure the desired asset for your client.

Now you are splitting hairs on the numbers and somehow claiming that makes him, what, a liar? Wrong? errrrr help me out here, I'm struggling  a little with exactly what your issue is with that!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Nah... the mighty small spec knows better than a guy who falls into the reportable category! Jeeeeezzzzzz what don't you get about his main winning argument ---> "because I said so!"
> 
> WINNING!!!
> 
> Charlie, Charlie? Where are you? Charlie?




Mr Z your all knowing attitude is just outstanding. You don't know me from a bar of soap yet all valid points from everyone else thats a contraindication to your own Beliefs are crapped on.

its people like yourself that lead to so much mis-information about trading and the world in general. 

Whats the name of your cult? I'll make sure I fall into someone elses spell when I go looking for an all knowing god.


----------



## Trembling Hand

FlyingFox said:


> Again, no offence but it's pretty obvious that you don't. People don't get into those positions by picking petty arguments. In any case, I said that his word carries more weight than yours; not that I believe him and not you or vice versa. I am well capable of making up my own mind.




Ar actually my turn over is just shy of 400 mil so far this month............. :

so can I have a stamp now. One like Mr Z has got please

"I Know everything"



Mr Z said:


> Yeah.... OK, hmmmm let me see, he was basically saying that the commitment to deliver metal far exceeds the ability to deliver metal on the Comex. Pretty typical of ANY futures market, no? Therefore as a fiduciary  the responsible thing to do is to secure the desired asset for your client.
> 
> Now you are splitting hairs on the numbers and somehow claiming that makes him, what, a liar? Wrong? errrrr help me out here, I'm struggling  a little with exactly what your issue is with that!




I said his figures are rubbery by at least a factor of 1/2. But as always you want to stump on any one who disagrees with you.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Mr Z your all knowing attitude is just outstanding. You don't know me from a bar of soap yet all valid points from everyone else thats a contraindication to your own Beliefs are crapped on.




No really that sounds like you.

I just did a quick check @ 1450 ish we have 60 billion in OI and currently 3.2 billion in deliverable metal in Comex warehouses. *How about you explain how that alters his point?*



Trembling Hand said:


> its people like yourself that lead to so much mis-information about trading and the world in general.




What a load! You quote specifics if you are going to trot out crap like that. I sorry I forgot you don't do specific anything do you!



Trembling Hand said:


> Whats the name of your cult? I'll make sure I fall into someone elses spell when I go looking for an all knowing god.




Give it a rest you wally! You have to be one of the most one eye posters here! Talk about cult, LOL.


----------



## FlyingFox

Trembling Hand said:


> Ar actually my turn over is just shy of 400 mil so far this month............. :
> 
> so can I have a stamp now. One like Mr Z has got please
> 
> "I Know everything"




Good for you. Well if you get enough people to agree with what you're saying then yes why not...good luck with that.



Trembling Hand said:


> I said his figures are rubbery by at least a factor of 1/2. But as always you want to stump on any one who disagrees with you.




Hmmm, your exact words were and I quote directly

"His figures are a bit rubbery but why let facts get in the way of a good story..... I mean hell -it is gold. "

No numbers, no clarification, nothing......

Even if his numbers were off by 1/2, his assertion, in my eyes still stands. If I have a contract for $1 billion, and there is only 5.4 billion of good in the warehouse and ~ 40 billion in open contracts ... I'll want my stuff too.

Moreover he clarified his position as that being of a fiduciary and his client wanting to hold onto their investment for a long time...


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Ar actually my turn over is just shy of 400 mil so far this month............. :
> 
> so can I have a stamp now. One like Mr Z has got please
> 
> "I Know everything"
> 
> _*I said his figures are rubbery by at least a factor of 1/2. But as always you want to stump on any one who disagrees with you.*_




No, you said 



Trembling Hand said:


> His figures are a bit rubbery but why let facts get in the way of a good story..... I mean hell -it is gold.




Too which I said you are splitting hairs and his point still stands!!!!! You call bull**** while looking straight past what the guy was saying, he could be out by 1/2 but that changes nothing in the context of what he was saying! +++++ When he took delivery, which was quite a while ago from memory, those numbers may well have been spot on!!!! REGARDLESS, given his responsibility to the institution he is correct, it is the only prudent decision to make.

Why the angst? No one is dissing futures, he was just saying that given the situation they where bound to take the most secure option.


----------



## Trembling Hand

He has taken the Open Interest of the Calls AND added the PUTS. LOL hope his maths is better with his clients money. 

The other thing we all know is that most of the options have an exact but opposite position in the futures. Most of the volume is arbs. Some estimates are as high as 60%. Therefore to know the real position of the open interest you must remove all counter positions.

Clearly none of that matters.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh and to add those open interest figures are not for this month. They go out for the whole year ahead. They cannot be all called in come 1 weeks time.


----------



## Mr Z

FlyingFox said:


> No numbers, no clarification, nothing......




Yeah well he does that, kinda calls all other claims into question don't it?

BTW you can prolly turn 400m notional value on around 1% of that quite easily if you day trade, prolly half that even. Lunch money in the trading world.

BSD's don't generally bother with us little folk down here in forum land, you know better things to do and all that.


----------



## craft

I’m a bit of a Turnover is vanity, Profit is Sanity, Cash flow is reality sort of guy so not really sure I should be anywhere near this thread at the moment , however there’s’ been a  bit popping up about gold on some of my usual reads – this one I thought an interesting perspective.

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/the-golden-rule-thoughts-on-gold-as.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Yeah well he does that, kinda calls all other claims into question don't it?




Or maybe spending too much time posting on here trying to explain some truths is a pointless exercise - thus the lack of detail. We all know what is on youtube and in the media cannot be questioned.

No doubt my above post will be passed over about the OI.


----------



## FlyingFox

Trembling Hand said:


> He has taken the Open Interest of the Calls AND added the PUTS. LOL hope his maths is better with his clients money.
> 
> The other thing we all know is that most of the options have an exact but opposite position in the futures. Most of the volume is arbs. Some estimates are as high as 60%. Therefore to know the real position of the open interest you must remove all counter positions.
> 
> Clearly none of that matters.




Even if we take your numbers, his point still stands! If you want to have the product at the end of the day and your contract is any where between a third to a fifth of all reserve, the only prudent thing to do is to take delivery.

You don't want to be these guys...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Just_Refused_To_Give_My_Friend_His_Gold.html

http://www.examiner.com/article/largest-dutch-bank-defaults-on-physical-gold-deliveries-to-customers

Not everyone wants to trade.....


----------



## FlyingFox

Trembling Hand said:


> Or maybe spending too much time posting on here trying to explain some truths is a pointless exercise - thus the lack of detail. We all know what is on youtube and in the media cannot be questioned.
> 
> No doubt my above post will be passed over about the OI.




Actually your post on OI and previous posts have been very useful. Personally appreciate your content.

I think most post here are questioning the media, the mainstream media anyway. I don't see any media articles about the sky falling etc ... they all go along the lines, house prices will double, stock markets will go up, back to the good old days...


----------



## Trembling Hand

FlyingFox said:


> Even if we take your numbers, his point still stands! If you want to have the product at the end of the day and your contract is any where between a third to a fifth of all reserve, the only prudent thing to do is to take delivery.
> 
> You don't want to be these guys...
> 
> http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Just_Refused_To_Give_My_Friend_His_Gold.html
> 
> http://www.examiner.com/article/largest-dutch-bank-defaults-on-physical-gold-deliveries-to-customers
> 
> Not everyone wants to trade.....




I didn't say he was completely full of it . Just saying that as per usual people should actually understand what the situation actually is. 

FFS! why do the real numbers not count??!!


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> He has taken the Open Interest of the Calls AND added the PUTS. LOL hope his maths is better with his clients money.




He who? I used outstanding futures OI as of today, no options.

I think you will find he was talking about the point in time that he made the call, like I said a while back, so really YOU HAVE NO VALID DATA POINT ON WHICH YOU CAN SPLIT YOUR HAIRS.

Yes, not all deliverable in any given month but the point was that should push come to shove not all futures holders could get metal from the Comex. Obvious really as the Comex is a hedging market that delivers around 1% of contracts and even then delivery usually constitutes a warehouse receipt. They are just not setup to nor does anyone really expect them to deliver bulk metal. 

Again, regardless of the actual ratio, his point was valid, as a fiduciary he had to advise the most prudent path for his client.... which he did! 



Trembling Hand said:


> The other thing we all know is that most of the options have an exact but opposite position in the futures. Most of the volume is arbs. Some estimates are as high as 60%. Therefore to know the real position of the open interest you must remove all counter positions.
> 
> Clearly none of that matters.




No because it is likely BS! I doubt very much he included options! *BUT still it is beside the point that he was making!*

You do realize he was talking 2011 don't you?


----------



## skyQuake

Why not take delivery of say copper? Or soybeans?

These commodities actually have an industrial use.

Hunt and silver also comes to mind


----------



## FlyingFox

Trembling Hand said:


> I didn't say he was completely full of it . Just saying that as per usual people should actually understand what the situation actually is.




Are you implying that Kyle Bass does not understand the situation? I would say he understands it pretty well considering he made his fortune from futures and derivatives trading.



Trembling Hand said:


> FFS! why do the real numbers not count??!!




Never said they didn't. You only provided them after a page of comments asking you repeatedly to provide numbers ....


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Or maybe spending too much time posting on here trying to explain some truths is a pointless exercise - thus the lack of detail. We all know what is on youtube and in the media cannot be questioned.
> 
> No doubt my above post will be passed over about the OI.




What truth? You are actually arguing beside the point he was making and totally out of context! He made the move in 2011, he'd be quoting numbers from then!

Seriously dude, you are like a guy arguing with the Captain of the Titanic about the rate at which the water is coming in, when his main point was *we are sinking*!

Jigger the numbers all you want, unless you want to argue every contract is backed it is very hard to argue with what he said!!!!!


----------



## FlyingFox

skyQuake said:


> Why not take delivery of say copper? Or soybeans?
> 
> These commodities actually have an industrial use.
> 
> Hunt and silver also comes to mind




I would advise against storing soy beans for a long time....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> You do realize he was talking 2011 don't you?




*YES. I was saying this back when this was first posted years ago by Explod. And in fact challenged him only last week to AGAIN justify the position (see silver thread) about turn over OI and deliverables.* :1zhelp:


----------



## Mr Z

skyQuake said:


> Why not take delivery of say copper? Or soybeans?
> 
> These commodities actually have an industrial use.
> 
> Hunt and silver also comes to mind




People don't tend to make long term investments in soybeans or copper now do they?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> What truth? You are actually arguing beside the point he was making and totally out of context! He made the move in 2011, he'd be quoting numbers from then!
> 
> Seriously dude, you are like a guy arguing with the Captain of the Titanic about the rate at which the water is coming in, when his main point was *we are sinking*!
> 
> Jigger the numbers all you want, unless you want to argue every contract is backed it is very hard to argue with what he said!!!!!




Ok Mr Z. you are right. I was arguing that everything is fine. Back to normal transmission on youtube.

O
V
E
R 


A
N
D



O
U
T


----------



## Ann

Ahem...'scuse me chaps, not wishing to interupt the banter but I feel another chart coming on with what may well be some very rubbery figures of my own! I did not take the candle tails into my calcs even though I have drawn a flag using tails as a level.

This is not a good look for those holding gold.

(Mr Z is that you J?)


Cheers Ann


----------



## Mr Z

Jeeez Louise....

You would have to be certifiable not to advise his client as he did given the number of issues with broker dealers etc in the recent past. He did the responsible thing! They are a Uni Foundation not a frickin trading house, they have no business in futures aside from maybe hedges at appropriate times. Certainly not as their main investment vehicle.

.... but yet we are to believe that all he says is BS cause TH doesn't think he got the ratio of deliverables to contracts correct!  Damn what sin!

Man, any perceived slight of the precious futures market and the knickers come up over the ears! 

I wonder if they where MF Global customers? :


----------



## Mr Z

Ann said:


> Ahem...'scuse me chaps, not wishing to interupt the banter but I feel another chart coming on with what may well be some very rubbery figures of my own! I did not take the candle tails into my calcs even though I have drawn a flag using tails as a level.
> 
> This is not a good look for those holding gold.
> 
> (Mr Z is that you J?)
> 
> 
> Cheers Ann
> 
> View attachment 51920




I am plumbing for 1250 to 1200 in May FWIW. 



YES! 

Just havin some fun, you know I like rubber!


----------



## Ann

Mr Z said:


> I am plumbing for 1250 to 1200 in May FWIW.
> 
> 
> 
> YES!
> 
> Just havin some fun, you know I like rubber!






Yes Z I would agree...around that level looks like there was a bit of strength for a wee bit on the way up.

Damn good to see you here mate! I don't get onto forums very often...pretty much only pop up when my chart has something big to say. I will look out for you from now on when I am around. Much respect to you! 

Now play nice Z


----------



## Mr Z

Ann said:


> Yes Z I would agree...around that level looks like there was a bit of strength for a wee bit on the way up.
> 
> Damn good to see you here mate! I don't get onto forums very often...pretty much only pop up when my chart has something big to say. I will look out for you from now on when I am around. Much respect to you!
> 
> Now play nice Z




I pop in and out of here when I am bored! A bit bored now.... waiting for what I feel is a good setup!

I hope England was fun 

P.S.> I spend equal time on bug boards, I must say they are about wrung out of spirit, the nay sayers are biting much harder.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> I pop in and out of here when I am bored! A bit bored now.... waiting for what I feel is a good setup!




If looking to the skies you may be bored for awhile yet.

On the 10 year chart have been ruminating about the move up which began about the end of 08 with gold at US700to touch $1900 about august 2011.  On the chart we see the first major support left by this move at around $1400, then 1200 and very solid down at 750.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html    ...see bottom chart

On the action of the last few weeks we would guess that the support around $1400 has held and we are away.

However spoke to my dealer today and tapped into a few other sources and have concluded for that for this paper market to end it may well go all the way near to nought.

So before this closing of the paper market altogether which (when you consider now at 100 contracts to the ounce) it must;   how low then can we go?

Going back to the 10 year we see the beginning near the US$300 and an overall head and shoulders suggesting its completion may see gold back below that level.

How many will fail to see this picture and give up their physical ?  Unfortunately there mayt be many.

I no longer feel concerned at the paper price, hold your physical outside of the system in your own hands and like Z, sit about and be bored.


----------



## sinner

skyQuake said:


> Why not take delivery of say copper? Or soybeans?
> 
> These commodities actually have an industrial use.
> 
> Hunt and silver also comes to mind




Part of golds value is precisely that you can hoard it without impacting the industrial economy. If I was the chief of the Saudi CB and I'm pulling in USD at a rate of ~9000 barrels multiplied by the marginal (daily price) of oil per day, we are talking significant trade inflows which have to go somewhere. If I start hoarding soybeans and copper, it is going to have a significant impact on the industrial economy in the form of supply shortages for the rest of the world. 

That means for the marginal net producers of the world, the "store of value" *has* has to be in an asset which can be hoarded without industrial impact, we are pretty much only talking US Treasuries, Gold and Bunds. Silver used to sit somewhere on that ladder but increasing industrial application has removed it from the realm of monetary metals. I am personally skeptical of USD and EUR role as anything but the "medium of exchange" and "unit of account", on timeframes >12 months. So we are talking physically delivered gold, in return for production surplus, on any marginal producer which has surplus going out >1Y.

EDIT: addendum, the "medium of exchange" will always be a "store of value" to some extent, and vice versa. The "FOFOA" argument is mainly that almost all of the world economic imbalances for the last 30Y-50Y can be attributed to the world using its primary "medium of exchange" (USD) as the "store of value" for long duration saving.


----------



## FlyingFox

sinner said:


> Part of golds value is precisely that you can hoard it without impacting the industrial economy. If I was the chief of the Saudi CB and I'm pulling in USD at a rate of ~9000 barrels multiplied by the marginal (daily price) of oil per day, we are talking significant trade inflows which have to go somewhere. If I start hoarding soybeans and copper, it is going to have a significant impact on the industrial economy in the form of supply shortages for the rest of the world.
> 
> That means for the marginal net producers of the world, the "store of value" *has* has to be in an asset which can be hoarded without industrial impact, we are pretty much only talking US Treasuries, Gold and Bunds. Silver used to sit somewhere on that ladder but increasing industrial application has removed it from the realm of monetary metals. I am personally skeptical of USD and EUR role as anything but the "medium of exchange" and "unit of account", on timeframes >12 months. So we are talking physically delivered gold, in return for production surplus, on any marginal producer which has surplus going out >1Y.
> 
> EDIT: addendum, the "medium of exchange" will always be a "store of value" to some extent, and vice versa. The "FOFOA" argument is mainly that almost all of the world economic imbalances for the last 30Y-50Y can be attributed to the world using its primary "medium of exchange" (USD) as the "store of value" for long duration saving.





Well put.


----------



## sinner

craft said:


> I’m a bit of a Turnover is vanity, Profit is Sanity, Cash flow is reality sort of guy so not really sure I should be anywhere near this thread at the moment , however there’s’ been a  bit popping up about gold on some of my usual reads – this one I thought an interesting perspective.
> 
> http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/the-golden-rule-thoughts-on-gold-as.html




Thanks craft, wise worse from Aswath in the comments section of that article, recognising the reality of the situation:


> Oil is just a commodity but *gold definitely is not just a commodity.*




My main issue with that article is twofold:
1. A lot of what he says applies equally to an ounce of gold as to money under the mattress. Which implies logically a definition of "saving", not "investing", after all the "real interest rate" is what you get for investing the money, not saving it in a shoebox. So why exactly is gold being held to the standard of investment, when it is (has and always will be) a "store of value" i.e. savings. Should it not be held up in comparison to other savings devices, such as holding a giant warehouse full of USD for 30Y?
2. All of the "valuation hypothesis" he chooses seem kind of fallacious to me since they are entirely US focused, yet obviously the number of USD that an ounce of gold can buy has been influenced more by global than local factors. Consider for example the USD was a promissory note to deliver a defined unit of gold to the holder, prior to the closing of the gold window. Holding USD in lieu of the physical did not protect from that event, yet he did not examine owning golds role as a hedge against such events (i.e. specifically hyperinflation and/or currency default).


----------



## sinner

Don't get me wrong. There is a strong argument to be made for "investing" whether it be into stocks or the so called "risk free rate", I don't have anything against it. But it's important to recognise that it is in fact investing (taking on some form of risk), and at at some level of economic activity (think Saudi CB), investing is really absolutely 0 concern to you. Your only concern is saving production surplus into an asset which can retain itself as a store of value for very long time periods. We are talking >30Y, which incidentally, is historically the average lifespan of a paper currency regime. Saving in paper currency is a new idea, and only made possible by the structural support over the last 30-50Y for the USD. I mean, would you buy a 100Y dated US Treasury Bond at 5% and expect a real return on redemption? 

and yet, there are gold holdings that have stayed within the same institution or family for *many* hundreds of years.


----------



## craft

sinner said:


> Thanks craft, wise worse from Aswath in the comments section of that article, recognising the reality of the situation:
> 
> 
> My main issue with that article is twofold:
> 1. A lot of what he says applies equally to an ounce of gold as to money under the mattress. Which implies logically a definition of "saving", not "investing", after all the "real interest rate" is what you get for investing the money, not saving it in a shoebox. So why exactly is gold being held to the standard of investment, when it is (has and always will be) a "store of value" i.e. savings. Should it not be held up in comparison to other savings devices, such as holding a giant warehouse full of USD for 30Y?
> 2. All of the "valuation hypothesis" he chooses seem kind of fallacious to me since they are entirely US focused, yet obviously the number of USD that an ounce of gold can buy has been influenced more by global than local factors. Consider for example the USD was a promissory note to deliver a defined unit of gold to the holder, prior to the closing of the gold window. Holding USD in lieu of the physical did not protect from that event, yet he did not examine owning golds role as a hedge against such events (i.e. specifically hyperinflation and/or currency default).




I thought your points were covered in the 'Gold as Insurance' section and the bottom line – well that’s how I read it and that was the most interesting part.

As an aside – If Gold deserves a position in the portfolio as insurance then I see it as insurance against counterparty promise failure – therefore only physical does that job.

Not my preferred insurance but I see the reasoning.


----------



## sinner

Warren Buffetts 20% CAGR for ~30-40Y has given him a net worth ~50 billion USD. Lets say he decides to spend 20 billion in figuring out how to live for another 100Y and continue his awesome investment performance. How long does it take at 20% CAGR before he has all the money in the world? My calculations are roughly that at a 30 billion starting balance, at 20% CAGR, old WB will have 248453 trillion dollars (that's 12 more zeros on the end) after 100Y. Surely at some point, you have to recognise there is an upper limit to investing, an upper limit to which markets can even take that sort of size - how large would the US deficit have to be to accomodate old WB?

Lucky for gold, since it's a real physical good, its infinitely divisible against imaginary constructs like "the unit of account".


----------



## Mr Z

I watched it again, I stand corrected he mentioned options.

Just for the hell of it, as we stand today.

June Calls OI = 233020 potential of 33B @ $1450
June Futures OI = 251249 potential of 36B @ $1450

Total for June ~69B.... not so far from the quoted number, given we are down on OI from the period he is likely talking about.

Registered Inventory 2,210,735.929 @ $1450 = 3.2B - Over the quoted number but not massively.

Now as TH mentioned you can't just take option OI, they are often apart of complex strategies and typically 80+% of them finish out of the money and are worthless. Similarly many futures positions are a part of a strategy like a spread trade. The total number of positions doesn't give you much of a clue as to what the physical demand could be at the end of the month. The only figure we have is that typically something slightly less than 1% of positions are taken to delivery and most of that is just movement within Comex warehouses not off take. One of the points that Kyle was making is that 1% is not a very big number, as he said if that where to change to 4%, for any reason, metal would be getting hard to come by. Likely? Well not if the Comex history is anything to go by but something like a default on the LBMA would probably put a good deal of pressure on the Comex as people sort alternates. Will it happen... well who knows, but if you are running a conservative private fund that is holding gold for the long run would you want to explain to them that due to unforeseen circumstances you now only have a cash contract? I would not, I would be doing what he did and I would also be careful about who was storing the metal once acquired.


----------



## nulla nulla

I guess if the university is storing their bullion at their own secure location, they remove the risk of a second party storage facility "leasing" out their bullion without their knowledge and/or consent. Further, if the University has their wealth in hard bullion they insure against any devaluing of the paper dollar through the printing presses.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the third-largest U.S. academic endowment, sold $375 million in gold bars from holdings of about $1.4 billion and reinvested the proceeds in gold futures and equities. 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...nd-sold-375-million-in-gold-bar-holdings.html


----------



## nulla nulla

US$1,467.00 slowly climbing since the fall.


----------



## nulla nulla

FlyingFox said:


> Kyle Bass on why he had Uni of Texas take physical delivery of $1 billion in gold.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgNVNTvlpFY




The youtube clip date is unclear but I note Mr Z's posts that it was in 2011 (correct me if I'm wrong). They took delivery of US$1 billion in physical gold, but his comments in respect of the subsequent audit, suggest it is still being held by a party other than the University of Texas, mixed in with the gold of other parties.



Uncle Festivus said:


> The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the third-largest U.S. academic endowment, sold $375 million in gold bars from holdings of about $1.4 billion and reinvested the proceeds in gold futures and equities.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...nd-sold-375-million-in-gold-bar-holdings.html




It looks like their investment was up over US$100 million and that they have now sold off some of the physical and re-invested it in futures and equities. The timing of the sell off and re-investment in futures (if they re-invested in gold futures) would be interesting.


----------



## Mr Z

Chillout Dudes!!!!


----------



## CanOz

Before the bulk of trading gets underway I'm focusing on the 1465 to 1480 as price is accepted as value here.

Make no mistake about this, we have a short term uptrend, with no signs of aging yet. 1500 is a 50% extension off the lows...might see some bracketing there...

The best scalps are trading with stop runners on this market prior to pit open.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Before the bulk of trading gets underway I'm focusing on the 1465 to 1480 as price is accepted as value here.
> 
> Make no mistake about this, we have a short term uptrend, with no signs of aging yet. 1500 is a 50% extension off the lows...might see some bracketing there...
> 
> The best scalps are trading with stop runners on this market prior to pit open.
> 
> CanOz




nice flip this morning...and no one could blame etf selling....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> nice flip this morning...and no one could blame etf selling....




Absolutly beautiful move back into that gap...this big move happened with liquidity!


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Absolutly beautiful move back into that gap...this big move happened with liquidity!




On satynight hops try to stay away,

But my big tip of a crash is obviously wrong?

It has proved to me that JPM are watching what I say at all times as all my calls (all of them) go the other way.

Now as a holder, I say being wrong in this case *again* is good, but they will ruminate and stew over this post so just watch it crash mundy.


----------



## chumley

explod said:


> On satynight hops try to stay away,
> 
> But my big tip of a crash is obviously wrong?
> 
> It has proved to me that JPM are watching what I say at all times as all my calls (all of them) go the other way.
> 
> Now as a holder, I say being wrong in this case *again* is good, but they will ruminate and stew over this post so just watch it crash mundy.



Really dont understand what your basing your "tips" on.
Is it the huge + 80 rillion dollar debt the US has?
Or the fact that no one wants to hold US $'s
In the current circumstance I can see no alternative for gold but to go up, as it has for 1,000 of years.


----------



## chumley

Joules MM1 said:


> nice flip this morning...and no one could blame etf selling....




Why is it a "short term" uptrend
Its been going up for the last decade.
We really need to be looking at the $1,560 range right now.
Sure some sell stops will be pressed, as in Fridays trade, but no one is asleep at the wheel here.
Unlike three weeks ago when it crashed, that was just so stupid.
And to hear all the idiots come out of the little door in the Cookoo Clock bleating "end of bull run for gold"
Really stupid.
Why?
Because its not the end of any "bull run" for gold.
I don't know if anyone noticed by what it is is the end of the Bull run for the US $ over the last 40 years.


----------



## CanOz

chumley said:


> Why is it a "short term" uptrend
> Its been going up for the last decade.
> We really need to be looking at the $1,560 range right now.
> Sure some sell stops will be pressed, as in Fridays trade, but no one is asleep at the wheel here.
> Unlike three weeks ago when it crashed, that was just so stupid.
> And to hear all the idiots come out of the little door in the Cookoo Clock bleating "end of bull run for gold"
> Really stupid.
> Why?
> Because its not the end of any "bull run" for gold.
> I don't know if anyone noticed by what it is is the end of the Bull run for the US $ over the last 40 years.




If you had experience or some screen time with the Gold contract you might think about your posts a little differently. 

CanOz


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> If you had experience or some screen time with the Gold contract you might think about your posts a little differently.
> 
> CanOz




There are two golds, paper which you trade CanOz and physical which some of us on here collect; and I might add *and keep* as a safe method of long term saving.

The shortage of physical is now cronic, and the paper trading  bears no relationship to a real gold market anymore. Again in silver more than 12 month production (in volume) was traded Friday, nearly a weekly event now, but that is what it now takes to keep the price under control. 

I will see if I can sus out another thread just about physical or mount a case for us gold collectors to seperate our discussions from you traders.  To newcomers this whole circus makes little sense.  The idea of this site (ASF)  is to inform and help each other to learn.

The spot price is no longer the price of real gold so on our ASF heading most of us are off topic.


----------



## Lone Wolf

explod said:


> The spot price is no longer the price of real gold so on our ASF heading most of us are off topic.




I'm a bit out of the loop when it comes to the gold situation so excuse me if this is a stupid question...

Perth mint is selling 1oz gold bars for $1465. 10oz bars for $14376. The spot price is currently $1430. All in AUD.

So when you say the spot price is no longer the price of real gold. What do you mean?

Are you saying that the advertised bars from perth mint aren't in stock? And therefore if you want physical today you'll need to pay above perth mint rates to acquire it from someone else?

Is this just for small amounts though? Or for all quantities of gold? If the shortage is only on small quantities, then is that really a gold shortage, or just a temporary shortage in a specific form of gold? What form of gold do you consider "real gold" ie. coins, 1oz bars, 400oz bars?


----------



## FlyingFox

Lone Wolf said:


> I'm a bit out of the loop when it comes to the gold situation so excuse me if this is a stupid question...
> 
> Perth mint is selling 1oz gold bars for $1465. 10oz bars for $14376. The spot price is currently $1430. All in AUD.
> 
> So when you say the spot price is no longer the price of real gold. What do you mean?
> 
> Are you saying that the advertised bars from perth mint aren't in stock? And therefore if you want physical today you'll need to pay above perth mint rates to acquire it from someone else?
> 
> Is this just for small amounts though? Or for all quantities of gold? If the shortage is only on small quantities, then is that really a gold shortage, or just a temporary shortage in a specific form of gold? What form of gold do you consider "real gold" ie. coins, 1oz bars, 400oz bars?




+1. I might be wrong here but you can still get Perth mint bars quite readily. 

I don't think we should be expecting spot price for coins, eagles. The price for larger bars is not that much above spot (usually 2-3 %).


----------



## explod

Lone Wolf said:


> So when you say the spot price is no longer the price of real gold. What do you mean?
> 
> Are you saying that the advertised bars from perth mint aren't in stock? And therefore if you want physical today you'll need to pay above perth mint rates to acquire it from someone else?
> 
> Is this just for small amounts though? Or for all quantities of gold? If the shortage is only on small quantities, then is that really a gold shortage, or just a temporary shortage in a specific form of gold? What form of gold do you consider "real gold" ie. coins, 1oz bars, 400oz bars?




All amounts.  Try to buy some for immediate delivery into your own hand Monday.  

The entire financial system, Governments, Banks and advice industry are terrified of a rising gold price.  There are no trailing fees, or other interest for them, and its price rise has always been the signifier of the dilution of paper money.  (which with respective Q/es they are printing madly atm). Perth Mint play with that game, and sure with established customers who after long waiting periods some are still getting it at the prices quoted.

Check out the following sites a few times;

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/

http://www.gata.org/

Coin dealers are a good place to hang around too, talk to the other people there buying for metal content, plenty of them as they are very busy at the moment, and you will soon get the idea.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> All amounts.  Try to buy some for immediate delivery into your own hand Monday.
> 
> The entire financial system, Governments, Banks and advice industry are terrified of a rising gold price.  There are no trailing fees, or other interest for them, and its price rise has always been the signifier of the dilution of paper money.  (which with respective Q/es they are printing madly atm). Perth Mint play with that game, and sure with established customers who after long waiting periods some are still getting it at the prices quoted.
> 
> Check out the following sites a few times;
> 
> http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/
> 
> http://www.gata.org/
> 
> Coin dealers are a good place to hang around too, talk to the other people there buying for metal content, plenty of them as they are very busy at the moment, and you will soon get the idea.




Hi explod,

Were you able to get in touch with the perth mint? Do they not have any physical for immediate delivery?

Cheers


----------



## Lone Wolf

explod said:


> All amounts.  Try to buy some for immediate delivery into your own hand Monday.




Thanks for the reply.

I'd still say that the price of gold is the price you pay to acquire physical gold. It may not be delivered Monday, but so long as I do get it for that price, then that's the price.

Coins are worth more than the metal they're made from because people are willing to pay a premium above the price of real gold to acquire coin.  So I'd argue that the coin market is not the price of real gold.

Anyway, the above is only my opinion and as I said, I'm out of the loop with gold and don't really know what I'm talking about. I'll read your links, thanks.


----------



## sinner

I have no issues purchasing physical gold for immediate delivery, in size, right now, from my regular bullion dealer. I could walk in there today. In fact, from what I have seen, premiums over spot for physical are *much* tighter than they were before the decline, in most cases we are talking a 50-60% reduction in premiums over spot.  So, explod, I have no idea what you are basing your claims on.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> It has proved to me that JPM are watching what I say at all times as all my calls (all of them) go the other way.




Right, of the two possibilities:

1. Your gold calls are consistently wrong because your entire investment hypothesis is wrong
2. JPM is watching your gold calls here on ASF and moving markets against you,

The second one is eminently more feasible.


----------



## Ann

Mr Z said:


> Chillout Dudes!!!!




Darn interesting read Z! It is a real breath of fresh air reading someting that lacks BS and hype!





I have just dropped a silver chart in the silver thread which is showing a very bearish pattern for silver, the same Ascending Broadening Wedge (upward tilting megaphone) which I put up on this thread just before gold fell spectacularly just recently.  

Silver is gold's shadow and sometimes a shadow can be seen ahead of the subject. Here is a link to the silver chart i just put up. #879  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&page=44&p=768921#post768921


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Right, of the two possibilities:
> 
> 1. Your gold calls are consistently wrong because your entire investment hypothesis is wrong
> 2. JPM is watching your gold calls here on ASF and moving markets against you,
> 
> The second one is eminently more feasible.




Rubbish, have a *careful read *of my call last Friday night.

It is all just a bit of fun because most here still believe in the Keyensian System of economics.  I  began buying physical in  2004 and have continued since.  So far ahead on that score I could care less about the shorter term trading.


----------



## Joules MM1

chumley said:


> Why is it a "short term" uptrend
> Its been going up for the last decade.
> We really need to be looking at the $1,560 range right now.
> Sure some sell stops will be pressed, as in Fridays trade, but no one is asleep at the wheel here.
> Unlike three weeks ago when it crashed, that was just so stupid.
> And to hear all the idiots come out of the little door in the Cookoo Clock bleating "end of bull run for gold"
> Really stupid.
> Why?
> Because its not the end of any "bull run" for gold.
> I don't know if anyone noticed by what it is is the end of the Bull run for the US $ over the last 40 years.




ok,

(once upon a time I would have taken time to waffle in reply......why waffle, a yes-youre-right-youre-dead-right suffices)


----------



## Mr Z

Ann said:


> Darn interesting read Z! It is a real breath of fresh air reading someting that lacks BS and hype!




Bron is the guy who helped hooked me up at depositary services, he was very helpful answered my many queries about the market way back then. He is probably one of the least skewed commentators I read and he has a direct professional interest without having to sell you anything.   

Yes, refreshing.... there is so much denial and crap on *BOTH* sides of this market, it always seems to polarize and in the process the truth gets very lost and much harder to find. Someone here keeps saying people see what they want to see, but they don't seem to allow for that fact that it applies to all of us!  

I don't think I can name another market with so much emotional baggage all round! It gets wearing  , it is a bling thing, love it, hate it.... the slogan should be ----> *Gold, the bipolar metal!
*
JMO.... you know. :

CYA


----------



## Mr Z

Lone Wolf said:


> I'm a bit out of the loop when it comes to the gold situation so excuse me if this is a stupid question...
> 
> Perth mint is selling 1oz gold bars for $1465. 10oz bars for $14376. The spot price is currently $1430. All in AUD.
> 
> So when you say the spot price is no longer the price of real gold. What do you mean?
> 
> Are you saying that the advertised bars from perth mint aren't in stock? And therefore if you want physical today you'll need to pay above perth mint rates to acquire it from someone else?
> 
> Is this just for small amounts though? Or for all quantities of gold? If the shortage is only on small quantities, then is that really a gold shortage, or just a temporary shortage in a specific form of gold? What form of gold do you consider "real gold" ie. coins, 1oz bars, 400oz bars?




Bars cost money to make! Perth Mint charges spot + fabrication cost + profit and in the wider secondary market the premium over spot will float based on demand and availability but on average it has to cover the mint cost etc and the dealers margin. Generally the bigger the bar the lower the premium per oz you are paying and typically a dealer will buy to replace inventory at that point in time so todays cost is what is passed on to you. Think of a dealers gold stock as a till float, it is always about the same amount and they only care that they profit on the turn over on any given day.

Yes, we are talking product shortage, not gold.


----------



## Mr Z

Lone Wolf said:


> So I'd argue that the coin market is not the price of real gold.




ABSOLUTELY! It is a market unto itself that while it is derivative of the gold market it very much needs to be understood on its own merits. Some coins have a value so far in excess of the gold content that POG matters little, most bullion coins are far more connected, but some like ASE's are a cut above others.... based purely on supply v sentiment! 

If you want gold buy ugly blocks of it, it the end, when this market peaks the premium will disappear on most product and so much suspect stuff will be around that everything sold to a mint will be on a "melt and assay basis", spot - X,  X depending on supply. History has taught us that much


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> ABSOLUTELY! It is a market unto itself that while it is derivative of the gold market it very much needs to be understood on its own merits. Some coins have a value so far in excess of the gold content that POG matters little, most bullion coins are far more connected, but some like ASE's are a cut above others.... based purely on supply v sentiment!
> 
> If you want gold buy ugly blocks of it, it the end, when this market peaks the premium will disappear on most product and so much suspect stuff will be around that everything sold to a mint will be on a "melt and assay basis", spot - X,  X depending on supply. History has taught us that much




I do not disagree.

My interest is not in coins but the metal, merely mentioned them as I thought a good option.

The larger more established dealers in Melb City by interest of the public have increasingly since around 2007 become involved in metal bars.  I used to deal specifically with Johnson Matthey who closed their doors here in Melbourne around 2008 so rather than the cumbersome excercised of going to Perth opted for the shop fronts.

Not sure how large Wrights would go but have dealt with them and Divis at the 5 kilo level, my nearest coin dealer in the outer burb too.

Anyhow just


----------



## explod

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/04/28/china-goes-gold-crazy-why-now/

This confirms the tid-bits I was picking up myself around the traps the last few weeks.

I am of the view that the genral public do not have a clue at this stage and the gold rush has still not begun.

We shall see.


----------



## Trembling Hand

perth-mint-feels-gold-buying-frenzy


----------



## explod

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/29/another-big-selloff-coming-for-gold/

The big company techos say gold to go down near to UA$1100

They are selective in the chart time frame.  The picture since 1999 shows a whole different story if one wants to rely on the technical side.  This one presents a good picture of that:-

http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/gold98-l.html

We have good support at $1400 (going back to 2005) and yes it could collapse to $1100 and the bull remain intact.

Fundamentally (which is not discussed) by those calling for or thinking gold will collapse, in my view puts them in dreamland.  The way in which gold went down, most often after market closes and around weekends, did not go unnoticed by regulators or the investment community.  I do not think it will be achieved again in that way for a long time.  However articles like that above will continue to have some effect.  Certainly not happening to those chasing physical.

On the Privateer 14 year chart (per above link) the uptrend range is now between the US$1400 and $2300 area.  I can see no evidence that this will change or that the bull run in gold is anywhere over.   When the printing presses stop debasing paper money then maybe.


----------



## Mr Z

I still suspect that there is more to come in May. Probably a new low, possibly just a test of the old one, we are close one way or the other.

JMO.



http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...lly-as-goldman-closes-short-wager-commodities


----------



## Mr Z

Here is a little blood pressure tonic for those that let it get to them 

http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250


----------



## explod

Though he has always been bullish gold overall because the unbacked paper currency system, James Turk I have felt makes his case sensibly and backed by facts.  The following is part of a discussion he had yesterday with King World News:



> The short position in both gold and silver is now so huge, it won't take much to push the shorts into a buying panic. I have been looking for possible triggers that could panic the shorts, and we got a hint last week of one possible event which may do this. Because of various problems, there have been news reports that Barrick is considering what to do with its huge Pascua-Lama deposit after a Chilean court ordered it to stop development work.
> The project is already well behind schedule, with big cost overruns from its initial plan, but here's the important point: The market has been expecting that when production begins, the mine would produce 800,000 ounces of gold and 35 million ounces of silver annually. Those ounces will of course never materialize if development work remains suspended.
> But also consider that according to its 31 March 2013 financial report, Barrick has hedged 65 million ounces of silver, which is 8% of the world's annual silver production. What is the bullion bank, who sold that hedge to Barrick, going to do if those 65 million ounces don't get mined and delivered to it?
> What is Barrick going to do if the bullion bank forces it to deliver physical silver to close the hedge? What are the shorts in silver going to do when they realize that there is a potential time bomb here that could substantially reduce the near-term forecast of silver supply?
> In other words, it is pure insanity to be short silver here, and for that matter, gold as well. Round two of the buying panic may be just around the corner when the paper shorts rush to the exits. They will learn the age-old and time-proven adage about the precious metals, namely, that it is easy to sell gold and silver in large quantities, but very, very difficult to buy in size."




Applies to the silver thread too but do not want to drive you all as nuts as l am.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> The short position in both gold and silver is now so huge,.....
Click to expand...



I don't think that we are really at an extreme, not at least in the data I am looking at! The commercials are as close to net long as they have been in a while and while the total OI is high in Silver its not really record breaking in Gold. At least that is what I am looking at, anyone got better data? Got a chart explod? What exactly is he referring too? COT looks bullish, but it is not a good market timing tool!


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> , James Turk I have felt makes his case sensibly and* backed by facts.*



Ha! I think what you consider as facts is not what the rest of the sane world does. But carry on.....



Mr Z said:


> I don't think that we are really at an extreme, not at least in the data I am looking at! The commercials are as close to net long as they have been in a while and while the total OI is high in Silver its not really record breaking in Gold. At least that is what I am looking at, anyone got better data? Got a chart explod? What exactly is he referring too? COT looks bullish, but it is not a good market timing tool!




There was a 6.6 % drop in Feb. Flat March. April monthly report isn't out yet but we can be pretty safe to assume that OI greatly reduced from the daily data.

But lets just let Explod carry on with his reporting of "facts".




From http://www.cftc.gov/ but what would they know?!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gold equities are not expecting anything big to happen any time soon, or at least they are not pre-empting 
another surge in the POG?


----------



## Mr Z

Uncle Festivus said:


> Gold equities are not expecting anything big to happen any time soon, or at least they are not pre-empting another surge in the POG?










Nothing strong yet and yes I would expect some relative strength.

We are not there yet IMO.

COT suggests that the commercials will add about another 10% to their net long side before they settle down.

 JMO.

Close but I'm not giving out cigars just yet


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> There was a 6.6 % drop in Feb. Flat March. April monthly report isn't out yet but we can be pretty safe to assume that OI greatly reduced from the daily data.




Look at the OI in Silver expanding into the lower price. What do you make of that? Someone is getting this very wrong by the looks of it! Which side?!


----------



## Ageo

The interesting thing is that while the price of gold is falling the world is having gold shortages which hasnt been seen in a very long time.....  Contradicting eh??

The day gold price reflects the physical movement and not the paper style we are seeing is when things will become more interesting.


----------



## Mr Z

Ageo said:


> The interesting thing is that while the price of gold is falling the world is having gold shortages which hasnt been seen in a very long time.....  Contradicting eh??
> 
> The day gold price reflects the physical movement and not the paper style we are seeing is when things will become more interesting.





Product shortages.... not gold shortages, the supply chain for these products is not huge so when demand swings up wildly they run dry for a while till they catchup again. It has happened before and will happen again.


----------



## Ann

I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?


----------



## CanOz

Ann said:


> I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?




I "one-time framed" it down for the last three hours, not a buyer in site....wouldn't be surprised to see it crack tonight at all!

CanOz


----------



## Ann

Ann said:


> I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?




Gold held on strongly and lifted back up onto the lower support line of the flag formation. If this continues, what is a bearish flag may well turn into a bullish rising channel. Now back to watching the bearish megaphone on Silver's chart!


----------



## Ann

Now taking a closer look at the long term chart I can see a very strong resistance line coming from May 2011 of $1474. This may be a very hard resistance to break through as it held from May to July 2011 with a number of attempts to get over the resistance of $1474.


Sell in May, go away! Looks like it!


----------



## Ann

Ann said:


> Now taking a closer look at the long term chart I can see a very strong resistance line coming from May 2011 of $1474. This may be a very hard resistance to break through as it held from May to July 2011 with a number of attempts to get over the resistance of $1474.
> 
> 
> Sell in May, go away! Looks like it!




Well that was all a load of crap! Up too late at night....it is a bloody support line and it held firm over  May to July 2011 and remained solid in support after being tested twice. So I am still handing out $1474 as a potential overhead resistance line. Geez!


----------



## Mr Z

Keep it simple, the Dow is at highs, we are into May, profits will be taken as they go into summer in the US & the DOW should correct ~ 10%. The USDX still looks OK here, IMO it will make ~85. This all looks risk off into summer, I can't see gold or gold stocks rallying into the face of that.


----------



## Mr Z

Ann said:


> Well that was all a load of crap! Up too late at night....it is a bloody support line and it held firm over  May to July 2011 and remained solid in support after being tested twice. So I am still handing out $1474 as a potential overhead resistance line. Geez!




Ann,

I have found that gold increasingly responds a particular driving currency that is not always the USD. This seems to make horizontal support/resistance secondary to sloping support/resistance lines (speed lines as I call them). The latter seems to better allow for the relative nature of the currency market. IMO you really need to look at Gold in Euro, Yen and the USD before sticking a peg in the ground. 



Maybe so much BS but it works for the way I tend to draw lines these days


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Mr Z said:


> Ann,
> 
> I have found that gold increasingly responds a particular driving currency that is not always the USD. This seems to make horizontal support/resistance secondary to sloping support/resistance lines (speed lines as I call them). The latter seems to better allow for the relative nature of the currency market. IMO you really need to look at Gold in Euro, Yen and the USD before sticking a peg in the ground.
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe so much BS but it works for the way I tend to draw lines these days




I also.  Angled trendlines > support/resistance.  NCM looks ready to begin a move up when the trendline breaks.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Look at the OI in Silver expanding into the lower price. What do you make of that? Someone is getting this very wrong by the looks of it! Which side?!




Yeah its 30% higher than this time last year but from my read its the producers who have increased their short  positions (don't tell explod though, facts and all!) against  raising longs of hot money.

Seen this? Just found it I like it.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/cftc-tff/main.html


----------



## explod

Oh! and as the old ratbag of ignorance there is another source I like "Goldtrends.com"  and the newsletter today talks of thier take on support and resistance for the *paper gold * circus. 



> Going to the gold chart, we’re right at weekly support in the 1439-1445 area. This is strong support for this week. The other place to watch is that horizontal line at 1425. This is the area that gold broke out above last week and would be another support point to watch. The FED notes come out at 2:15 pm time today and while there’s a high chance that the FED will be accommodative in their remarks, the control boyz can always do what they want on the short term and could certainly spike the price under 1439 to clear out the stops. The economic data was again weak this morning and ADP numbers leave the potential for the Non Farm Payroll numbers on Friday to be weak. That is another report that is a favorite for the control boyz to wreck havoc in the gold market. In summary, gold is at the weekly support point at around 1440. The green 200 hour moving average is there and the lower dotted white channel line at around 1436-1439 is also a point to watch for support. The closing price is the key as a spike by the control boyz on the FOMC news could very well take place. Of NOTE also is they just happened to choose this date (MAY 1st) when 10 important world markets are closed for Holiday, including China and India. Coincidence you ask? I doubt it very much.


----------



## prawn_86

I'm slightly confised. I have a few ounces of gold, if i go to a store to sell them, are members here suggesting that the price i will be offered will not be a margin off the current spot (paper) price?? Or can i still get 1700 an ounce for my physical gold?


----------



## Ann

Ann said:


> Well that was all a load of crap! Up too late at night....it is a bloody support line and it held firm over  May to July 2011 and remained solid in support after being tested twice. So I am still handing out $1474 as a potential overhead resistance line. Geez!




$1474 held strong even though POG pushed hard a number of times to break through, eventually appeared to give up and just flat lined it to the close. Included is a chart of last night's price action from Kitco.


----------



## FlyingFox

prawn_86 said:


> I'm slightly confised. I have a few ounces of gold, if i go to a store to sell them, are members here suggesting that the price i will be offered will not be a margin off the current spot (paper) price?? Or can i still get 1700 an ounce for my physical gold?




If there is such a place I would like to know ...


----------



## explod

FlyingFox said:


> If there is such a place I would like to know ...




Price ranges between AU$1550 and 1800 on ebay.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> Price ranges between AU$1550 and 1800 on ebay.




For what exactly? Are we talking 1 oz coins? bars? or 100oz bars?


----------



## prawn_86

prawn_86 said:


> I'm slightly confised. I have a few ounces of gold, *if i go to a store to sell them*, are members here suggesting that the price i will be offered will not be a margin off the current spot (paper) price?? Or can i still get 1700 an ounce for my physical gold?




If i go to a store, not Ebay, will i be able to get a price that is not related to the current spot rate?  I dont feel comfortable selling my gold on Ebay


----------



## CanOz

Ann said:


> $1474 held strong even though POG pushed hard a number of times to break through, eventually appeared to give up and just flat lined it to the close. Included is a chart of last night's price action from Kitco.




Might take it out this morning....into a measured move to 77 at the moment,,,


----------



## explod

FlyingFox said:


> For what exactly? Are we talking 1 oz coins? bars? or 100oz bars?




Ounce bars. 

Why the need to be so specific, gold is gold.  Just giving 

Anyway someone told me here a week or so back that they are all a heap of cranks (like me) that buy and sell on ebay.


----------



## explod

Just rang my pet dealer who over the counter would give you AU$1,380

He also added that gold and silver is going south.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> Ounce bars.
> 
> Why the need to be so specific, gold is gold.  Just giving




Yes gold is gold but the spot price is for very large cast bars. There is a cost involved in production of smaller bars and even more for smaller minted coins plus packaging and transport.

Also there is a delay in any extra production for coins and small bars if there is a sudden high demand. So if you can't get your favourite eagle, it may not be the end of the world; not yet anyway. 

To give you an idea of this, at my favourite gold dealer:

100g gold bars = 4,743.00 / 3.21507466 ( troy ounces in 100g) = 1475.24 / oz
10z gold bar = 14,847.00/ 10 = 1484.70 /oz

When I asked him about this, he just said oz denominations are more popular so we have a slightly higher margin. Personally he would buy metric because gold is gold and it is all coming out of perth mint. 

Just my


----------



## prawn_86

explod said:


> Just rang my pet dealer who over the counter would give you AU$1,380
> 
> He also added that gold and silver is going south.




That seems to be a spread based off the paper price. Where is the disconnect for actual physical?


----------



## FlyingFox

prawn_86 said:


> That seems to be a spread based off the paper price. Where is the disconnect for actual physical?




On ebay


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Might take it out this morning....into a measured move to 77 at the moment,,,




76.5 is the GAP btw....


----------



## explod

FlyingFox said:


> On ebay




Laugh if you wish but I have (some years ago) purchased bars with no worries on ebay using paypal which has proven to be quite secure.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> Laugh if you wish but I have (some years ago) purchased bars with no worries on ebay using paypal which has proven to be quite secure.




I am not disputing the fact you can buy safely off of ebay. We are only questioning why would you pay 1550-1800 dollars / oz to buy off of ebay when you can get the bars much closer to spot price from gold dealers. And more importantly for the other members, equating that to a disconnect between physical and spot prices.

Do you realise that the seller needs ~ a 7-10% margin just to cover ebay and paypal costs?

http://pages.ebay.com.au/help/sell/fees.html
https://www.paypal.com/au/webapps/mpp/paypal-fees


----------



## CanOz

Short term bullish, if i were a betting man i would be betting on the gap fill today....

For intra-day we'll be looking for longs...


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah its 30% higher than this time last year but from my read its the producers who have increased their short  positions (don't tell explod though, facts and all!) against  raising longs of hot money.
> 
> Seen this? Just found it I like it.
> 
> http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/cftc-tff/main.html




I don't think so, many of the producers are closing out hedges as the price is now below their production costs so it is now cheaper to mine the LBMA than to supply mined metal into the hedges. They are effectively getting long here.

Keep in mind that the commercials includes bullion banks etc that are not producers.

OI is rising into a price slump, that is not normal, also net positions are not extreme so this leads me to believe that big spread trades are being placed. It doesn't look to me like business as usual for silver, leaves me wondering which leg of the spread will be lifted?!

It looks to me like the commercials are headed long, at least as long as they have been for a long while, so I figure they are busy selling there short positions to the funds... It looks a little like a move is being put over on the hedgies here.

Do I have this messed up? Am I thinking straight?

COT Oscillator, Net and OI in sequence.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> He also added that gold and silver is going south.




Near term I would agree!


----------



## Mr Z

*Oh yeah!*

TH will love this for a classic bit of goldbuggery!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-02/next-escalation-gold-goes-100-initial-margin

Spot the problem?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Oh yeah!*



Mr Z said:


> TH will love this for a classic bit of goldbuggery!
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-02/next-escalation-gold-goes-100-initial-margin
> 
> Spot the problem?




Would love one of the bugs/experts to reply. See how much they know about their field of expertise!

Explod?


----------



## young-gun

Regardless of the seemingly pointless debates on here, irrespective of whether there is a current disconnect between paper and physical, no matter how terrible the charts look, disregarding if you're a trader or a hoarder, does anyone in here honestly believe that over the next 5-10 years that gold(and silver) does not have huge potential?

The global economy is f*#$ed, alright things are still pretty good here, and we will likely come out the other side in a much better position than most nations, but things are simply not ok.


----------



## Mr Z

young-gun said:


> Regardless of the seemingly pointless debates on here, irrespective of whether there is a current disconnect between paper and physical, no matter how terrible the charts look, disregarding if you're a trader or a hoarder, does anyone in here honestly believe that over the next 5-10 years that gold(and silver) does not have huge potential?
> 
> The global economy is f*#$ed, alright things are still pretty good here, and we will likely come out the other side in a much better position than most nations, but things are simply not ok.




Yes... but things ebb and flow, it is never going to be straight forward and as this global currency war develops it will actually get harder to pick the relative strength in the markets. This can easily play against gold as it has for the last two years, if you bought at the wrong time or are forced to sell for some reason at the wrong time then "being right" has not helped you much.

The sad fact is that the global environment that is developing will suit disciplined traders that don't ask questions, use tight money management and operate a well defined system over those that hold. The volatility is going to increase here as things move on and fundamental investors will need religious conviction to see it out to the end!

My advice to anyone would be to learn to do a little of both, in the end you will need trading skills to know when to exit long term positions.... essentially we are all traders, we are just arguing time frame. A tighter time frame gives you more practice at getting right, guys that never trade out and in worry me, they are highly likely to muff the exit.... badly.

2c

JMO


and all that


----------



## explod

The so called regulators/banksters have been playing around with margin percentages for awhile now at particular chart support/resistance lines for some years.  Just part of the misical chair paper game which on principal I have refused to mess my head with.

What about the fact that for every ounce of gold there are now more than 100 paper contracts.  Rules for the banksters and another for the honest traders.  In fact current reports suggest the London Bullion Exchange have virtually sold off all physical.

Stuff trading.  It is not about making money it is about having something left when it hits the fan.  It is all about saving real money in my view.   Gold/silver is the only real money.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Oh yeah!*



Trembling Hand said:


> Would love one of the bugs/experts to reply. See how much they know about their field of expertise!
> 
> Explod?




Why go and spoil a great headline.....

"to be margined at 100% of *initial* for intraday trading" just means that you have to post initial margin rather than maintenance (secondary) margin.  i.e. an extra $640 (post $7040 instead of $6400) to buy 100 oz. of gold with value ~$147,500.  it doesn't mean there's no leverage allowed, or that you have to post the full $147,500."

??

(ZH must have been seriously burned in the past for such vehement animosity to "the game" & the players.....)


----------



## ROE

young-gun said:


> Regardless of the seemingly pointless debates on here, irrespective of whether there is a current disconnect between paper and physical, no matter how terrible the charts look, disregarding if you're a trader or a hoarder, does anyone in here honestly believe that over the next 5-10 years that gold(and silver) does not have huge potential?
> 
> The global economy is f*#$ed, alright things are still pretty good here, and we will likely come out the other side in a much better position than most nations, but things are simply not ok.




Depend what sort of an investor you are...gold has zero relevant to me, it can go up or down 50% I have no place in it...

What you saying is just betting things turn out the way you think it turn out but history tell you, market is unpredictable..

The way I see it if i got 50k to put it some where I have an option put it into gold which produce no income, cost you oppotunity cost and expose to commodity price or I can buy some shares in decent  business that pay dividend and if the world 

goes up and down it may pay me a little more or a little less dividend and if it happen do well year after year I get more and more dividend and maybe I can buy twice as many shares as I have before....

I hold an ounce of gold it still and ounce of gold 15 years from now....no income....cant turn it into 2 ounce of gold...


----------



## CanOz

Love those bots....


You reckon a human can do this???


----------



## chops_a_must

That is one bizarre chart!


----------



## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> That is one bizarre chart!




If it weren't a range chart you would even notice the fact that all that volume was done in seconds between the two levels...


----------



## Ann

CanOz said:


> Might take it out this morning....into a measured move to 77 at the moment,,,




As it did CanOz but it may only turn out to be a skinny little tail on my chart. It is the fat candles that hold my interest. I start watching the POG from the Victorian time 10pm when the New York Spot Gold chart opens up on Kitco. On the open it fell into the chart at around the $1477 level and within 10 mins was fighting to get above $1474 again but then fell steeply to just above $1458. Now it rises strongly again as I watch, no, it's down again!.....Geez it is more fun than a WWF wrestling match!corn:


----------



## CanOz

Ann said:


> As it did CanOz but it may only turn out to be a skinny little tail on my chart. It is the fat candles that hold my interest. I start watching the POG from the Victorian time 10pm when the New York Spot Gold chart opens up on Kitco. On the open it fell into the chart at around the $1477 level and within 10 mins was fighting to get above $1474 again but then fell steeply to just above $1458. Now it rises strongly again as I watch, no, it's down again!.....Geez it is more fun than a WWF wrestling match!corn:




I trade it during the european session, it's a little tamer but plenty of opportunities...it's a different animal once the pit opens...


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Oh yeah!*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Why go and spoil a great headline.....
> 
> "to be margined at 100% of *initial* for intraday trading" just means that you have to post initial margin rather than maintenance (secondary) margin.  i.e. an extra $640 (post $7040 instead of $6400) to buy 100 oz. of gold with value ~$147,500.  it doesn't mean there's no leverage allowed, or that you have to post the full $147,500."
> 
> ??
> 
> (ZH must have been seriously burned in the past for such vehement animosity to "the game" & the players.....)




Basically they  changed the margin on their day trading activity. These positions have to be flat at the end of the day but in return you normally get leverage on the CME margin requirement. Leverage on leverage if you like! By going to 100% all they are requiring is that you post the full CME margin as apposed to a lessor % of it, this is still only ~5% of the notional contract value. It is no where near 100% contract margin as the headline suggests!

Basically all this is saying is that this particular broker is expecting bigger volatility going forward and they want to make sure that its day traders have plenty of padding.

That is interesting, but it is a whole world away from a 100% contract margin as the headline implied! 

Gotta love gold, it is spin all round, 24/7


----------



## Ves

chops_a_must said:


> That is one bizarre chart!



Is it Captain Hook coming to get the gold bugs?


----------



## tinhat

Ves said:


> Is it Captain Hook coming to get the gold bugs?




irate:


----------



## Ann

Mr Z said:


> Ann,
> 
> I have found that gold increasingly responds a particular driving currency that is not always the USD. This seems to make horizontal support/resistance secondary to sloping support/resistance lines (speed lines as I call them). The latter seems to better allow for the relative nature of the currency market. IMO you really need to look at Gold in Euro, Yen and the USD before sticking a peg in the ground.
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe so much BS but it works for the way I tend to draw lines these days




Z the way I figure it, if it works for you, do it! However when I look at the chart Gringotts Bank was kind enough to post it just looked like his cat had been sitting on his chart! Very Furry!  (Sorry Gringotts Bank, I mean no offence to you and appreciate you taking the time to post the chart).

I am not into busy, busy charts with **** all over the place, I find it a total distraction. That's what my charts looked like when I first started playing with computer charts. I found it took me nowhere and told me nothing.  I prefer to be as zen as possible when I am charting and stick with the KISS principle.  If I looked at gold in the Euro, Yen as well as the USD I would simply muddy my charting waters and move further from zen. Works for me!


----------



## Mr Z

Ann said:


> I am not into busy, busy charts with **** all over the place, I find it a total distraction. That's what my charts looked like when I first started playing with computer charts. I found it took me nowhere and told me nothing.  I prefer to be as zen as possible when I am charting and stick with the KISS principle.  If I looked at gold in the Euro, Yen as well as the USD I would simply muddy my charting waters and move further from zen. Works for me!




It is not as confusing as you make it sound!  

They are often very coincident


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Oh yeah!*



Mr Z said:


> That is interesting, but it is a whole world away from a 100% contract margin as the headline implied!
> 
> Gotta love gold, it is spin all round, 24/7




Yep. You can pipe it straight into your brain 24/7.... :scratch:


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> What about the fact that for every ounce of gold there are now more than 100 paper contracts.




What about the fact that that is total and utter BS?  :1zhelp:


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> What about the fact that that is total and utter BS?  :1zhelp:




That was Jeff Christian's words regards the LBMA participants being 100:1 on their unallocated metal. It is a fractional reserve system and I think all participants realize that. They want exposure to gold and a willing to take the credit risk on the likes of JPM, simple really, not so nefarious.

Bron (Perth Mint) seemed to suggest that it was actually closer to 10:1, he'd probably know as much as most anyone on that front.

The goldbug world has it that this also applies to allocated metal, I dunno how they'd manage that, you have bar numbers that are your bars and you have a clear legal agreement. It would clearly be fraud and I would imagine someone at some point would have sued if it where not above board.

We did have the case of JPM charging storage on silver in unallocated accounts when there was no silver at all, so they are not above pulling a stroke or two. They got nailed for it....mind you paying storage on unallocated marks you out as a patsy anyway!

This is one of those "facts" that has slipped its moorings and been applied to the whole gold world, erroneously, obviously. 

The gold forum world, including many of the writers that support it, is just a big game of Chinese whispers. Some grain of a fact goes in one end and pretty reliably "Comex default" or one of another few standard outputs comes out the other!

Guys, you really do need to dig and think! The bulls and the bears on gold are typically full of BS! It must be the most polluted investment space there is!

.... but as a dealer friend of my says ---> "This is the business we have chosen!", occasionally I wonder *WHY!*


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Guys, you really do need to dig and think! The bulls and the bears on gold are typically full of BS! It must be the most polluted investment space there is!
> 
> .... but as a dealer friend of my says ---> "This is the business we have chosen!", occasionally I wonder *WHY!*




It's something that at times is an amusing watch. The bugs always call for $10,000 gold next year because of the default of the shorts because "100:1" ratio etc. Problem is, I guess, with an uninformed view a few get sucked into an easy trade, put too much on and end up in a mess. Got a mate that put half his super into physical because after going to a seminar "more gold bonds trade in a day than there is gold" (his words, I'm assuming he meant futs!). He has been waiting for a default for 3 years.

Hardly the smartest hypotheses to base an all in trade on.


----------



## explod

In my view T/H it is about Guvt/bank money printing to stimulate business activity.

That act alone is devaluating/diluting the value of paper money; which equals a large inflation number not counted by mainstream.

I invested a third of my super in physical in 2004 and it was one of the best investments I ever made.

Except the one out of Perth, all other ETF's and the gold paper trade are not backed by any real substance.  I care nought for it all, or how, will, or does it work in fine detail.  As you know it is my strong view that the very act of shorting is unethical and contradicts the principles of a free market.  Of course these principles were introduced to give the so called powers a way of creating order in markets but it did not take them too long to work out ways to use them to rob ordinary sheeple.  The bundled housing loans in the US a great example of where banks shorted a product that had been sold to innocents worldwide.  Some aussie insitutional (Councils) super funds were caught in this too. 

So I am on a different planet and believe that you will one day be pleased to get a few spuds off me for just a handshake.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Except the one out of Perth, all other ETF's and the gold paper trade are not backed by any real substance.




Do you really think that the published SLV bar list is fake?


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Do you really think that the published SLV bar list is fake?




Catigorically I do not know.  

However there have been warnings on ETF's for some years now and to be frank, apart from a short term trade in AU/GOLD, 2007, would never touch them now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I invested a third of my super in physical in 2004 and it was one of the best investments I ever made.
> 
> As you know it is my strong view that the very act of shorting is unethical and contradicts the principles of a free market.




But did you not short currency, your very own country's, in that very trade? Does that not contradict you strong ethical principles?



explod said:


> Except the one out of Perth, all other ETF's and the gold paper trade are not backed by any real substance.  I care nought for it all, or how, will, or does it work in fine detail.




I think we can all agree that in spite of your decades following the very subject that its true. You don't know much about it.



explod said:


> So I am on a different planet and believe that you will one day be pleased to get a few spuds off me for just a handshake.




Or maybe we can swap a part of your small PM fortune for the last of my Autumn tommarts one day.


----------



## nulla nulla

Trembling Hand said:


> But did you not short currency, your very own country's, in that very trade? Does that not contradict you strong ethical principles?
> 
> 
> 
> I think we can all agree that in spite of your decades following the very subject that its true. You don't know much about it.
> 
> 
> 
> Or maybe we can swap a part of your small PM fortune for the last of my Autumn tommarts one day.
> 
> View attachment 52027




you could make a nice tomato relish or chutney with that lot.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Or maybe we can swap a part of your small PM fortune for the last of my Autumn tommarts one day.




Love it, just pure edible gold


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> But did you not short currency, your very own country's, in that very trade? Does that not contradict you strong ethical principles?




Very different to leasing someone elses shares (mostly without their knowledge) and selling them to buy back at a lower level.  And the very methods of selling often done to help drop the price also.

Where is the level playing field?

or ethics?


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> Very different to leasing someone elses shares (mostly without their knowledge) and selling them to buy back at a lower level.  And the very methods of selling often done to help drop the price also.
> 
> Where is the level playing field?
> 
> or ethics?




That is a standard short sale, if you use a margin account it is in the agreement that "your" shares may be lent out for short selling. Otherwise they cannot touch your stock without your consent!

There are some questionable practices in the US involving naked short sales but they generally target weak companies, not ETF's. That is all very murky and hard to get a handle on.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> That is a standard short sale, if you use a margin account it is in the agreement that "your" shares may be lent out for short selling. Otherwise they cannot touch your stock without your consent!
> 
> There are some questionable practices in the US involving naked short sales but they generally target weak companies, not ETF's. That is all very murky and hard to get a handle on.




From the Harvey Organ blog of Thrusday US time:-



> Today, physical gold continues to leave London with 6.02 tonnes of gold departing the GLD for the shores of China/and or Russia. The game ends when the last physical ounce held at the GLD departs.




And this from the same report:-



> The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
> 
> 
> There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.




http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/


----------



## Ann

Mr Z said:


> It is not as confusing as you make it sound!
> 
> They are often very coincident




I am not trying to make anything sound confusing, my charts rarely have more than four or five lines drawn on them, often less. But those four or five lines tell me exactly what is going down. Or generally do if I have focused correctly. Red wine does on occassion blur the vision. 

I called $1474 as a solid resistance line a couple of days ago and it is still struggling with that level. A single well placed line told me this was a high probability.

Will it ever rise above $1474? May do so but currently it is churning through the sellers and appears to be making little headway, with an imminent threat of collapse any minute. I don't believe it will rise above that level but I have often been surprised by the robustness of markets. 

But as I said Z, if your charts tell you their secrets with whatever style you use, fine that is what chart reading is all about.


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> From the Harvey Organ blog of Thrusday US time:-




This is the same GLD that they complain about as being unbacked by gold, no?


----------



## Ann

With the new trading day about to start I see this as a very critical time. My charts are telling me the POG is about to move out of support from its recent flag formation and for the last 6 days of trading has been stuck under the $1474 resistance line. It must lift above that resistance line or risk falling to levels of $1413 or $1350.

Let's see what happens!


----------



## CanOz

Ann said:


> With the new trading day about to start I see this as a very critical time. My charts are telling me the POG is about to move out of support from its recent flag formation and for the last 6 days of trading has been stuck under the $1474 resistance line. It must lift above that resistance line or risk falling to levels of $1413 or $1350.
> 
> Let's see what happens!




Looks like value is being accepted higher, 1474.6, if i were a betting man I'd say our target is 1600 again...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

GOLD COT April 30th...


----------



## Lone Wolf

CanOz said:


> Looks like value is being accepted higher, 1474.6, if i were a betting man I'd say our target is 1600 again...
> 
> CanOz




You're suggesting that price sitting at resistance rather than being rejected hard is an indication that the resistance is likely to be overcome?

I think now would be a good time for a false break lower before a push to 1550. That would mess up the plans of people like me quite nicely.


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf said:


> You're suggesting that price sitting at resistance rather than being rejected hard is an indication that the resistance is likely to be overcome?
> 
> I think now would be a good time for a false break lower before a push to 1550. That would mess up the plans of people like me quite nicely.




Well its only the Asian and a quiet EU sessions yet, but for now at least, we have a the majority of the volume traded between 70 and 79...

Lets see how things pan out...

CanOz


----------



## explod

From Goldtrends.net, 6th May

Find this site well worth the trip each day.   And agree CanOz, Mondays and even late intoTuesdays directions rarely set.  We will see.



> Gold short term uptrend being challenged as far as maintaining the upside momentum. Price has come down to the 1465 area and this is a very important area for Monday and this week as BOTH the weekly and monthly PIVOT POINT stands at 1465. That means that traders who watch these pivots will be going LONG at 1465-1466 and going short the 1460-1462 area back and forth looking to get on the trend for this week. The chart shows this area at 1460-1465 also important as 1st SUPPORT to pay attention to as the green 200 hour moving average is there as well as the lower dotted channel line from the rally off the lows. There’s a Fibonacci number at 1455 as well. Thus 1st important support on Monday is 1455-1465 area. The congestion on the chart here shows how important the resistance is at this area in the 1477-1487 area at upper end and then the 1455-1465 area at lower end. Last week’s low is 1440 and Friday low is 1455. A close below 1455 keeps the downside for this week open. With a cycle low due this week we could very well go test this area if the WEEKLY and MONTHLY pivot doesn’t hold 1460-1465. Remember, PIVOTs can and do get broken and sometimes a real dog and cat fight can occur at that area. Traders will long and short the area more than once trying to get on trend and which way it develops. So watch 1462-1468 area for a battle today. Below 1455-1460 gives the downside the very short term advantage while above 1470 has the upside with a slight edge. WEEKLY support is the 1440-1448 area and MONTHLY SUPPORT is the 1415-1425 area. If we close below 1455 the lower support levels are activated for a potential test. The Medium term trend remains down, but this week will be about whether gold can make a short term low on this pullback and then FORGE above 1487-1490. If gold can get above 1490 then the upside will open up and resistance will be 1497-1503 and 1520-1530. Watch 1460-1465 area today as the most important price point of the day.


----------



## Ann

explod said:


> From Goldtrends.net, 6th May
> 
> Find this site well worth the trip each day.




Interesting read but I like a picture, saves a lot of words! 

Just a few cents over $1470 on the open and close was yesterdays reply to the $1774 overhead and just kept hooked half way onto the flag formation.


----------



## CanOz

After a three day balance gold broke down again last night invalidating my bullish bias. Value is currently being accepted just below the break. If the break is tested and rejected, our lower prices are once again in play....


CanOz


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> After a three day balance gold broke down again last night invalidating my bullish bias. Value is currently being accepted just below the break. If the break is tested and rejected, our lower prices are once again in play....
> 
> 
> CanOz




Have you reversed, and if not, why aren't you trading down to the reversal pattern prices?


----------



## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Have you reversed, and if not, why aren't you trading down to the reversal pattern prices?




I just use the analysis for short term bias. My account size is not large enough to trade the risk associated with these large moves, in every case. Although occasionally there are such opportunities to catch those big moves....much as is the case with CL today


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> I just use the analysis for short term bias. My account size is not large enough to trade the risk associated with these large moves, in every case. Although occasionally there are such opportunities to catch those big moves....much as is the case with CL today




Bugger.

The bucket shops sometimes have an advantage for pattern and position trades.


----------



## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Bugger.
> 
> The bucket shops sometimes have an advantage for pattern and position trades.




Check out CL...consolidation within consolidation then breakout, just when i'm off to lunch too


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> just when i'm off to lunch too


----------



## CanOz

lol, you and your photos for all occasions, you're like f'in Hallmark


----------



## CanOz

Time for Gold to make up its mind, been in this range for long enough!!


----------



## explod

According to Bix Weir (The Road to Roota) the paper price is just about meaningless.

In my mail box today:-



> Physical off take of REAL Precious Metals continues at a blistering pace as recognition of the false electronic pricing mechanism spreads. Gold inventories are disappearing and silver inventories are being faked. I expect to see this reality manifest in ELECTRONIC PRICE VOLATILITY (up and down) over the next two weeks as the Bad Guys struggle to regain their control of both gold and silver. They know that if they cannot control the gold and silver markets they cannot control the unbacked fiat monetary system.




We will see.


----------



## Mr Z

Bix is bat poop crazy.

Gold is close to another semi religious experience by my estimation.

Hopefully that is wrong...

BUT?!


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> According to Bix Weir (The Road to Roota) the paper price is just about meaningless.
> 
> In my mail box today:-
> 
> 
> 
> We will see.






> I expect to see this reality manifest in ELECTRONIC PRICE VOLATILITY (up and down) over the next two weeks as the Bad Guys struggle to regain their control of both gold and silver.




Good call Einstein....ya reckon there would be some volatility after price staying in a range for half a dozen sessions???? YA RECKON????????


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> Bix is bat poop crazy.
> 
> Gold is close to another semi religious experience by my estimation.
> 
> Hopefully that is wrong...
> 
> BUT?!




That is my point, the word we are using as *gold, has no meaning*.  What is the content/meaning of the word *gold* that you are referring to Z?

And in this current world Bix is as good as anyone, but *his take * is of interest in my view.

PGIF


----------



## CanOz

*Welcome back Volatility*!


----------



## Mr Z

explod said:


> What is the content/meaning of the word *gold* that you are referring to Z?




Gold is gold, if the paper gets hammered Perth Mint will sell you gold cheaper. IMO with the USDX looking the way it is gold is in for another hammering. < 1250 by 28/5 is my call, but lets see! After that I think we are probably done.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> lol, you and your photos for all occasions, your like f'in Hallmark




you know, for a moderator that's really poor form.....

the your needs an e on the end of it .....

alright mate.....get yer f'kin act together


----------



## Joules MM1

if the name of this thread was dilithium crystals, the posts would remain the same

(as said by trader led zeppelin)


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> you know, for a moderator that's really poor form.....
> 
> the your needs an e on the end of it .....
> 
> alright mate.....get yer f'kin act together




While apprecaite your humor, you'*RE* actually wrong....when you say you and your...your is correct yeah?


I thought you're was an abbreviated "you are"....

Can'RE


----------



## FlyingFox

Joules MM1 said:


> you know, for a moderator that's really poor form.....
> 
> the your needs an e on the end of it .....
> 
> alright mate.....get yer f'kin act together




EPIC FAIL!

http://www.elearnenglishlanguage.com/difficulties/youryoure.html


----------



## chops_a_must

Gold!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> While apprecaite your humor, you'*RE* actually wrong....when you say you and your...your is correct yeah?
> 
> 
> I thought you're was an abbreviated "you are"....
> 
> Can'RE




and....and......one of those apostrophe things

your giving me the shids....give youre self an uppercut


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> your like f'in Hallmark




you're a dooffuss .......read your own work


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> you're a dooffuss .......read your own work




ahhh yup....got me !


----------



## Joules MM1

lulz 

and the rest of the gang can go back to watching game of thrones or any other over-acted, under-annunciated television

(note the lack of caps)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Currency wars

Japan 1
US 0

Starting to get interesting. Talk of QE exit strategies - NFL.

AUD/USD portends looming inflation worry for RBA soon - getting what it wished for?

Another take-down for POG but nice recovery overnight - one more TD to go to clean out the stragglers?

Equities bubbled over......& out.


----------



## noirua

Gold price falls to $1,420/oz: Dubai sees massive surge in bullion demand - Emirates 24/7
http://www.emirates247.com/markets/...e-surge-in-bullion-demand-2013-05-12-1.506109


----------



## explod

How long is the paper b/s going to last from here?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11899536/1/paper-gold-holders-flee-to-real-metal.html


Could be an interesting week for you traders and how for those in ETF's?


----------



## explod

> The price of bullion is not set in the physical market where individuals take delivery of bullion purchases. It is set in the paper futures market where short selling can drive down the price even if the demand for physical possession is rising. The paper gold market is also the market in which people speculate and leverage their positions, place stop-loss orders, and are subject to margin calls.




http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/Gangster-State-America-by-Paul-Craig-Roberts-130513-664.html

Well worth the read in full, particularly for those believing in the security of ETF's.


----------



## Ann

...and just for fun a swing trade calculation for the POG on a weekly chart as it falls out of a Decending Triangle. It may not get within a bull/bear's roar of the target price but let's see!


----------



## Ann

....and just for fun will the POG chart form a Big M chart pattern?


----------



## explod

The low of US$1419 overnight slightly higher than the low Friday night.  Is this the turn.  Perhaps the following could be the big clue to the drop in price over the last month or two.  *Getting off the hook Hey!*U.S. Banks 
'
"Net Shorts Fall to Lowest Since Summer, 2008"


http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/05/us-banks-buy-gold-futures-in-dramatic-position-change.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> The low of US$1419 overnight slightly higher than the low Friday night.  Is this the turn.  Perhaps the following could be the big clue to the drop in price over the last month or two.  *Getting off the hook Hey!*U.S. Banks
> '
> "Net Shorts Fall to Lowest Since Summer, 2008"
> 
> 
> http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/05/us-banks-buy-gold-futures-in-dramatic-position-change.html




You'll have to get that confirmed by the futures expert(s)


----------



## CanOz

This weeks COT.....

Having some shorts cover is actually a good thing for the bears. The market can get "too short" sometimes, esp after a big move. The next leg is not as easily done as everyone wants to cover, preventing the big drops. The first breaks are always the best.


----------



## CanOz

From the Technical Speculator



> May 14, 2013: Market Minute: Gold starts to fall (again)
> 
> Following the May 1, 2013 Market Minute titled "Has gold reached a peak?", the precious metal has reached a wall and is starting to roll downward once more.
> 
> Gold stopped its short rebound at $1475, stalled, and is now heading lower. A first downside target of $1375 should be expected.
> 
> It is important to note that gold is not trading any differently than the more common industrial metal of copper. The "safe haven" status of gold appears to have been removed and gold is trading the same as any base metal.
> 
> Bottom line: Gold's short bounce has ended. The price of the yellow metal is now expected to move lower. $1375 is the first downside target. longer term, gold is anticipated to trade below $1300 in Q3.
> 
> 
> Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA




For those that trade gold occasionally, keep an eye on HG, it tends to break before the other "industrial metals" like Gold and silver....


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> For those that trade gold occasionally, keep an eye on HG, it tends to break before the other "industrial metals" like Gold and silver....




How can gold be an industrial metal by any definition when the majority of gold demand is entirely for jewellery and investment? Industrial application is like ~10% of gold demand.

I think silver wasn't historically, but has become an industrial metal.

Central Banks and other net savers don't hoard industrial metals.

See stock:flow ratios of gold versus copper.


----------



## aclassic

Why don't I see any comments on Ann's charting showing $1100 gold ?


----------



## explod

aclassic said:


> Why don't I see any comments on Ann's charting showing $1100 gold ?




Because there are none that can be made.  

No one knows where it goes now as the paper market is more divorced from reality and the worth of physical gold than we ever imagined possible.

Nixon removed gold as the backing to paper money in 1974 and now we are seeing the froth and bubbles of that move.   Real money is in gold, paper money is trash.

So your guess is as good as mine aclassic. 

Interesting times indeed.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> How can gold be an industrial metal by any definition when the majority of gold demand is entirely for jewellery and investment? Industrial application is like ~10% of gold demand.
> 
> I think silver wasn't historically, but has become an industrial metal.
> 
> Central Banks and other net savers don't hoard industrial metals.
> 
> See stock:flow ratios of gold versus copper.





My comment was only T in C Sinner....


----------



## tinhat

explod said:


> Nixon removed gold as the backing to paper money in 1974 and now we are seeing the froth and bubbles of that move.   Real money is in gold, paper money is trash.
> .







That bad boy exfoliated Bretton Woods with agent orange.

Everyone knows that commie bastards hide in the woods. :shoot:


----------



## explod

tinhat said:


> Everyone knows that commie bastards hide in the woods. :shoot:


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Nixon removed gold as the backing to paper money in 1974 and now we are seeing the froth and bubbles of that move.   Real money is in gold, paper money is trash.




Just to clarify for all of us here explod, can you confirm that you are looking for a return to a hard money standard using gold as the backing?


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Just to clarify for all of us here explod, can you confirm that you are looking for a return to a hard money standard using gold as the backing?




...i thought the idea was to swap crumbs off the gold bars for bread, clean water, ammo etc...


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Just to clarify for all of us here explod, can you confirm that you are looking for a return to a hard money standard using gold as the backing?




Of course and we will all be living in one of these,


----------



## sinner

A small snippet from "What is Gold?" by FOFOA

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/12/what-is-gold.html


> I cast the first vote on behalf of A/FOA. How did I know their vote? They made it crystal clear in one of their earliest comments:
> 
> *"Gold is not money, not currency, not an investment, it is wealth."*
> 
> I think this is the essence of all of this, of Freegold, of (THOUGHTS!), of The Gold Trail, of my blog, the key, if you will, to unlocking the view. But from the last thread of arguments against Freegold, it is obvious that some of you still think gold is just another investment. That's fine, because that's all gold is to almost everyone in the West, so you're certainly not alone in your opinion.
> 
> If we could get everyone in the West to vote in this poll, I think "gold is an investment" would win in a landslide. If we could get everyone in the precious metals blogosphere to vote, then "gold is money" would probably win. So, to most Westerners, gold is an investment. To the gold bugs and HMS crowd, gold is money. And to the bullion banks, gold is a currency (ISO code XAU) upon which credit is issued and traded. So what did A/FOA mean by the statement that gold is wealth, not any of these other things? I mean, surely gold is whatever its users think it is, subjective use value and all, right?
> 
> Actually, that's exactly right! Gold is whatever its users think it is. And the point A/FOA was driving at was that the vast majority of the above-ground gold, today somewhere around 165,000 tonnes, is held by people who understand it as wealth.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Of course and we will all be living in one of these,
> 
> View attachment 52213




Hey thats nice

Is that on your property in Japan?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Is that on your property in Japan?



Yeah its about that size.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Just to clarify for all of us here explod, can you confirm that you are looking for a return to a hard money standard using gold as the backing?




No.

As was historically, to be exchanged only for like tangible goods; ie. land, shelter or food

Money came into being because not all would (lazy) or could take part in the bartering system.


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> No.
> 
> As was historically, to be exchanged only for like tangible goods; ie. land, shelter or food
> 
> Money came into being because not all would (lazy) or could take part in the bartering system.




....

You mean i was right Explod?



> .i thought the idea was to swap crumbs off the gold bars for bread, clean water, ammo etc...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold is done for.

The first Mrs Gumnut is fascinated by it.

That is enough evidence for it's utility.

When I go to Dan Murphys, I use my visa card, not Gold.

Gold is done.

We will see it at $500 soon imo.

Nobody uses it anymore, except for people who visit those toxic nail salons in our major shopping centres.

gg


----------



## boofis

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold is done for.
> 
> The first Mrs Gumnut is fascinated by it.
> 
> That is enough evidence for it's utility.
> 
> When I go to Dan Murphys, I use my visa card, not Gold.
> 
> Gold is done.
> 
> We will see it at $500 soon imo.
> 
> Nobody uses it anymore, except for people who visit those toxic nail salons in our major shopping centres.
> 
> gg




lol


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> ....
> 
> You mean i was right Explod?




Wonderful, 

finally someone over the line

You know the ant colonies around Inglewood where I was in residence for awhile have gold plate in many parts of their nests.   The average depth of their homes go down 25 feet and on learning this fact have pondered learning the language.  With metal detectors only scraping suface a well placed ant colony on side could be a good network to have.

My limited brain is concurrently distilling the next move.  

With gold no thinking is required to hold.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> No.
> 
> As was historically, to be exchanged only for like tangible goods; ie. land, shelter or food
> 
> Money came into being because not all would (lazy) or could take part in the bartering system.




So when you said, "real gold is money, paper gold is trash", could you please clarify exactly what you meant?


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> So when you said, "real gold is money, paper gold is trash", could you please clarify exactly what you meant?




You are trying to twist it ole Pal, 

what I said exactly was "Real money is in gold, paper money is trash"


----------



## ROE

Garpal Gumnut said:


> When I go to Dan Murphys, I use my visa card, not Gold.
> 
> gg




I take it's Visa Gold card?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ROE said:


> I take it's Visa Gold card?




Is there any other?

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

For scorn & mirth of those who mock will become anger towards those who have failed you.

What's happening with the POG has been predicted here for quit a while by a few of us, & I've been waiting for years for it to finally 'base' with the so called weak hands getting out. For while gold will get hammered down again over the next few weeks it will be nothing compared to what will happen to equity markets over the next few months, or  whatever time the tipping event triggers. 

Get used to more 'flash crashes' from the bots, only there won't be a miraculous rebound and the leveraged longs will have to stump up margin calls causing cascade selling. Get used to waking up to limit down equites markets where you are locked out of getting out of your trade, long or short.

It won't matter how much 'glue' they are printing every month to prop up a structurally flawed system as the fundamentals will eventually have to be priced in. As it is now equities are priced to perfection - perfection in a rebound in earnings that hasn't yet eventuated. 

I don't know if gold is the answer but as it stands now what else is there?


----------



## Intrinsic Value

I wouldn't be writing off gold too quickly.

It may slide in the short term but there are a number of good reasons why it might remain high as well.

Many of the emerging economies value gold quite highly and people buy it as a hedge. That includes the Middle East, SE Asia , and India. There is very strong demand for gold in economies that are growing strongly.

Secondly and probably more importantly the world economy is still in a very fragile state and it wouldn't take much for another crisis to happen. With record sovereign debt in many countries and record low interest rates as well what happens if interest rates start to rise? Big problem that is what. Countries start defaulting and then it gets scary and then people retreat to gold.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Uncle Festivus said:


> For scorn & mirth of those who mock will become anger towards those who have failed you.
> 
> What's happening with the POG has been predicted here for quit a while by a few of us, & I've been waiting for years for it to finally 'base' with the so called weak hands getting out. For while gold will get hammered down again over the next few weeks it will be nothing compared to what will happen to equity markets over the next few months, or  whatever time the tipping event triggers.
> 
> Get used to more 'flash crashes' from the bots, only there won't be a miraculous rebound and the leveraged longs will have to stump up margin calls causing cascade selling. Get used to waking up to limit down equites markets where you are locked out of getting out of your trade, long or short.
> 
> It won't matter how much 'glue' they are printing every month to prop up a structurally flawed system as the fundamentals will eventually have to be priced in. As it is now equities are priced to perfection - perfection in a rebound in earnings that hasn't yet eventuated.
> 
> I don't know if gold is the answer but as it stands now what else is there?




Uncle, with respect you pose a dangerous scenario.

If the Indons suddenly invaded in a chaotic future Asian scenario, would I dig up my 30oz of WA gold before saving my online assets to a memory stick, and fleeing south of the Brisbane Line.

I'm not that sure.

Gold is passe in my opinion.

Only suitable for blushed brides and bots, with a product to trade.

Gold in my opinion ain't worth a crock of ****.

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The show is only just starting......


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Uncle Festivus said:


> The show is only just starting......




So are you a bear on gold?

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Garpal Gumnut said:


> So are you a bear on gold?
> 
> gg




Yes, it's completely unloved by the great unwashed, until (the great unknown) the alternatives start to tank.....reality.


----------



## CanOz

> World Gold Council (WGC): Q1 Global gold demand -13% y/y (three-year low)- Central banks acquired more than 100 tons of gold in the first quarter, the seventh consecutive quarter of significant buying from the official sector. However, demand was at its lowest since the second quarter of 2011. - Technology sector gold demand fell 4% on-year to 102 tons in the first quarter. - Q1 global gold supply was little changed at 1,051.6 tons. - Source TradeTheNews.com




How is this possible with all the gold bugs stripping out eBay and the Bullion dealers?

CanOz


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> How is this possible with all the gold bugs stripping out eBay and the Bullion dealers?
> 
> CanOz




They forget to mention which central banks, it is all China, Russian and some South Africa and South America.  Also a lot has changed since the end of the first quarter, (US 31st March). Selective rubbish in my view.

Had to supply a mate overseas with some silver coins for some money he left with me some time back.  Did an average price (off ebay) for 2009 one ounce silver eagles at AU$35, so then to compare went in to speak with my dealer who said he could do them for less than that he felt, 

"did he have any in stock?"  "no" so rang his honcho in town as he "would have plenty", "no he hasn't got any either".  

So had to go with my ebay number.   Notice a heap of headings on my inbox today, which you could all find if you wanted" on the growing spread between paper and the item.   Just my


----------



## explod

> In the gold-is-manipulated script, governments and their bullion bank proxies push the price to levels where they know hedge funds and other traders have stop-loss orders, which kick in and send the price careening lower. Then the manipulators buy back their short positions, thus gaining a two-fer: fleecing the flock for a nice profit, and crushing the spirits of stackers and preppers and regular folks who value honest money.




http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-golden-bullseye.aspx?article=4377771092G10020


When will the paper market hit the wall ?


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-golden-bullseye.aspx?article=4377771092G10020
> 
> 
> When will the paper market hit the wall ?




Not in my lifetime.....


----------



## ROE

When gold up are they manipulating up?
If so they manipulate up and down so by investing
In gold you essentially gambling and has no idea
Where and when it go up or down?

Or it is only called manipulation on the way down because
On the way up I am good and I know when to buy gold...

I still don't understand why people invest in something that they believe 
being manipulated...whether it true or not I have no idea

But if I believe my industries is run by a bunch crooks and manipulators 
I would never invest in them because you lose hanging around crooks...


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Not in my lifetime.....




Cumoorn, just a little hint, have to plan the next move

how old are you. 

And you do not have to answer that.


----------



## Ann

I was expecting a better bounce from the POG back up to the $1474 level but as it failed to find support and fell below the very long term and very strong resistance/support line of $1414, I don't believe it will have the strength to fight back above it. Let's see!


----------



## CanOz

Yeah Ann i was a bit surprised that the rally lost steam so quickly. We now have an inside day so an upside break could confirm the short term rally. A break below would see us likely to test the lows again....some nice short covering stop runs this morning all ready....had to stop typing to trade one ...lol

FWIW, i've got the prior HOD at 1399.9...thinking 1400 may be a bit of resistance...lol

CanOz


----------



## Ann

CanOz said:


> Yeah Ann i was a bit surprised that the rally lost steam so quickly. We now have an inside day so an upside break could confirm the short term rally. A break below would see us likely to test the lows again....some nice short covering stop runs this morning all ready....had to stop typing to trade one ...lol
> 
> FWIW, i've got the prior HOD at 1399.9...thinking 1400 may be a bit of resistance...lol
> 
> CanOz




CanOz I should have been smarter and realized the POS had a massively high OI recently which was likely to drag the POS down and of course both POG and POS walk hand in hand. This is possibly the reason the POG faltered. Why do you think 1400, I am not seeing anything specifically?


----------



## CanOz

1400 is the line in the sand today for me, on the high side at least....if we did get thru that then a test of 1425 is likely....

1363, 1357 and 1350 are key levels downside for me...

CanOz


----------



## Ann

CanOz said:


> 1400 is the line in the sand today for me, on the high side at least....if we did get thru that then a test of 1425 is likely....
> 
> 1363, 1357 and 1350 are key levels downside for me...
> 
> CanOz




Ahh yes CanOz you are speaking for the day trade. I was thinking of the next couple of days. The daily POG looks as though it may develop an inverted flag or pennant.  

Looking at the 1 minute chart just then, there was a nice pennant on a flagpole setup. Then whammo, got ya! Down she went. Dang this daytrading is excitingcorn:!


----------



## CanOz

Ann said:


> Ahh yes CanOz you are speaking for the day trade. I was thinking of the next couple of days. The daily POG looks as though it may develop an inverted flag or pennant.
> 
> Looking at the 1 minute chart just then, there was a nice pennant on a flagpole setup. Then whammo, got ya! Down she went. Dang this daytrading is excitingcorn:!




Yeah i watched gold for about 2 months back in January....that's when i realized it would just smash through levels. I tried trading it using the hot keys trying to hit the bid and offer and i got too much slippage once the pit opened. So now i decided to try and zone in on these levels a bit more, rather than just wait for them to appear in the DOM. Open up a 1 range chart, and a two minute chart below it. Look for the held bids and offers and use that as your level. Trade with a tight stop, 5 cars, 1 being a runner. 

Sometimes Crude Oil will do the same thing but usually only when the shorts are covering hard.

the DAX as well, another market that likes smashing levels...

CanOz


----------



## outback

Ann said:


> I was expecting a better bounce from the POG back up to the $1474 level but as it failed to find support and fell below the very long term and very strong resistance/support line of $1414, I don't believe it will have the strength to fight back above it. Let's see!




I'm struggling to find your very strong support/resistance at $1414. Certainly something there from 2010, but I wouldn't call it significant this far down the track.


----------



## skyQuake

Well that was vicious!


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Well that was vicious!





Yeah, nice one Ann, 1413.4


----------



## G Gekko

How does the US continuing QE translate into an overall drop in the value of gold? Bears out in force


----------



## Trembling Hand

G Gekko said:


> How does the US continuing QE translate into an overall drop in the value of gold? Bears out in force




Could be lots of reason. Explod will tell ya its pure manipulation. Others could say you are looking in the rear view mirror while the market looks forward. Or having a too simplistic, one line story to a complex problem (Thats my take).


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Could be lots of reason. Explod will tell ya its pure manipulation. Others could say you are looking in the rear view mirror while the market looks forward. Or having a too simplistic, one line story to a complex problem (Thats my take).




I dont' know but you could be right T/H.

My understanding is that Q/E is the provision of more money to stimulate a recovery.  I think gold is just like that, they make more paper contracts to try and stimulate it but it does not seem to be working, just like thier economy which has gone past 4 bad quarters and should be called recession.  Maybe Q/E changes the old ruler. 

Anyway gold was going up this morning but dropped a lot just before Big Ben did his talk.  This is a take on that.  (not necessarily my view either )

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/bernankes-semi-annual-tap-dance-of.html


----------



## Ann

outback said:


> I'm struggling to find your very strong support/resistance at $1414. Certainly something there from 2010, but I wouldn't call it significant this far down the track.




Outback if you trade using charts and discount the power of long term support/resistance lines, you do so at your peril.


----------



## Ann

CanOz said:


> Yeah, nice one Ann, 1413.4




Thanks CanOz! 

Just a little whimsy for the conspiracy theorists on a Kitco chart from last night!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Ann said:


> Thanks CanOz!
> 
> Just a little whimsy for the conspiracy theorists on a Kitco chart from last night!




Double bottom starting to form on the Daily chart. Today's bar is setting up a higher low off it so could be trying to find a floor. also lines up with a support point in 2010.


----------



## Ann

>Apocalypto< said:


> Double bottom starting to form on the Daily chart. Today's bar is setting up a higher low off it so could be trying to find a floor. also lines up with a support point in 2010.




May also be forming a pennant on an inverted flagpole. Let's see!


----------



## G Gekko

Trembling Hand said:


> Or having a too simplistic, one line story to a complex problem (Thats my take).




Would have to agree with this.


----------



## Ann

The last couple of days has seen POG moving into a pennant on a bearish inverted flagpole, it is getting to the point where it needs to either break up and test the 1414 level again or fall down and just see how low it can go!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> The last couple of days has seen POG moving into a pennant on a bearish inverted flagpole, it is getting to the point where it needs to either break up and test the 1414 level again or fall down and just see how low it can go!




Unfortunately you are giving Lava Girl an insight into the best time to raid gold again with your analysis 

If gold is indeed manipulated then I expect it to break to the downside, coinciding as it does with jitters in fiat world over JGB's, stock market busts and a negative ripple/contagion effect? 

Permanent proviso - unless & until it all turns to *&$*%^& and the 'flight to safety' (not USD's) trade is back on, though it will be a tad crowded by that stage?


----------



## Ann

Uncle Festivus said:


> Unfortunately you are giving Lava Girl an insight into the best time to raid gold again with your analysis
> 
> If gold is indeed manipulated then I expect it to break to the downside, coinciding as it does with jitters in fiat world over JGB's, stock market busts and a negative ripple/contagion effect?
> 
> Permanent proviso - unless & until it all turns to *&$*%^& and the 'flight to safety' (not USD's) trade is back on, though it will be a tad crowded by that stage?




I am thinking it will be thwarted from rising to 1414 as there is a short term overhead resistance line heading down at the end of the pennant which may add a bit of downward pressure onto the price. 

I am no good with timing the market with conspiracy theories Uncle Festivus, charts are easier!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_Today, like most commodities, the price of gold is driven by supply and demand as well as speculation.  I heard even number of hedge funds are shorting gold now.

I saw following link on Gold today.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1411601-short-gold-for-the-long-haul

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site._


----------



## Ann

...and today may be an interesting day for the POG. Will the falling April overhead resistance make the POG slide down with it?


----------



## CanOz

Yup, agree. Yesterdays failed auction higher puts the lows into play if we break through 1375 again...


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Yup, agree. Yesterdays failed auction higher puts the lows into play if we break through 1375 again...




75 held and we've now broken out to the topside of the large pattern on a very illiquid market...


CanOz


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> 75 held and we've now broken out to the topside of the large pattern on a very illiquid market...
> 
> 
> CanOz




took a buy on gold... small one though.. Gold daily confirming the double bottom/ higher low... breaking short term trend and moving though 20WMA.. a buy signal for me... ent 1403.9 looking for 1430 BE SL 1460 as a TP target.


----------



## explod

The rise today looks like a bit of movement at the station but as usual could be knocked down in minutes just prior to the US open in the usual fashion.

If we hold clearly above US$1400 overnight we have a start perhaps, but do not get too exited till we brake out properly, and at this stage the level to beat is about US$1550 in my view.

However those focused on prescious metals are starting to understand the two gold price conundrum.  Called at my dealer today who apologised for being slow to pick up the point that paper contracts of gold ownership will soon have little value and in a real world do not have it now.  But when you can borrow paper created gold contracts (without any real gold) for shorting then anything is indeed possible.  

Most who follow this thread will know.

The following links (just some I tap into) may help those seeking answers for themselves:-

http://www.gata.org/

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Butler/201...ina-To-Add-Another-Country-To-Its-Roster.html

http://www.goldtrends.net/

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It is but is isn't?

Money managers cut their net-long position by 9 percent to 35,686 futures and options as of May 21, the lowest since July 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Holdings of short contracts rose 6.7 percent to a record 79,416.

Investor sentiment is “negative towards gold,” and physical demand has started to slow, Suki Cooper, a New York-based analyst at Barclays Plc, said in a May 24 report. The metal will get “crushed” and trade at $1,100 in a year and below $1,000 in five years *as inflation fails to accelerate*, Ric Deverell, the head of commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG, said in London on May 16. 

No inflation?

Members of Japanese fisheries cooperatives staged a rally Wednesday in Tokyo to seek full-scale financial help from the government as *rising fuel prices* due to the rapid depreciation of the yen hits the industry.

Inflation to hit Japanese consumers: largest bread maker in the country, Yamazaki Baking, announced that it would raise prices by 3% to 6% for bread and by 2% to 6% for pastries. Culprit? Not rising demand or optimism or rising wages, but the devalued yen that pushed up the cost of imported flower. The costs of other ingredients have also risen recently.

Japanese QE out of control......




US QE out of control....

The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.81% in the week ending May 30 ”” the highest since the week ending May 10, 2012 ”” up from 3.59% in the prior week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. This month alone the rate has climbed almost half a percentage point.


----------



## Ann

Feeling a bit bearish about the POG at the moment. It bounced back off the long term $1414 resistance. It may yet fall down from the bearish inverted pennant on the flagpole ( I drew this on end of day points hence it looks a bit out of the candlesticks) and as a last bit of bearishness for followers of candlestick charting, there appears to be a 'dark cloud cover' on the last day of the month.


----------



## explod

Last three Fridays (Sat morn our time) have been down days.  Heard the other day that 87% of Fridays in the last few years have been down days.  Seems to collapse when the traders knock off early and go to the pub. though this Friday did start a bit earlier.

Note on your chart Anne that the last three weeks of close have been higher lows so I feel more ambivilant.  But could go up again till Friday, but of course about 70% of Mondays are down days too. Wednesdays and Thursdays seem to be the up days.

In the paper price that is followed here *anything* could happen and *probably will*.

Just my 

But I need to add that we could (will soon) have a big correction down in the bubbling Dow and S and P 500 which will bring everything including gold down with it.  In my very very humble opinion as usual


----------



## aclassic

Thank you Ann, Explod, Unc's, et al, for your thoughts.

Only a few are brave enough to comment nowadays.

cheers.

PS C'mon Z !


----------



## sinner

> http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4757/sprott-discusses-gld-redemptions
> 
> Eric Sprott: "The bullion banks happen to be the only ones able to redeem GLD shares for gold, and the GLD, with its 1,000 tonnes of inventory, acts like a large physical gold bank… it is very probable that the bullion banks themselves are in a shortage of physical gold, hence the need to use the GLD reserves."




Sprott finally realising today what FOFOA explained over 2 years ago.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So Lava Girl is manufacturing a dump so she can suck gold out of the ETF's to cover her shorts?

Looks like a descending (bearish) wedge forming on the daily so LG isn't finished yet?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Conspiracy theory......?

JPM a bit short of physical?

Bernanke knows this? - does he save the market or save JPM?

Is JPM too big to fail?

QE taper or not?

Bernanke announces retirement? 

Something big brewing?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Something big brewing?




What again?


----------



## sinner

Soooo...JPM is short of gold, controls the market with infinite paper shorts...yet the market rose 600%, 

*you had one job, Blythe, one job*.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_If investment demand continues to decline and gold ETF holders continue to sell, I believe a gold price below $1,000/oz .Gold will eventually return to its true cost of production. 

In addition we have to accept no currency, stock or any commodity will go straight up and down. We had great rally for gold during last 10 years and gold cycle has reversed to bear territory now. I am bearish on gold now. There can be dead cat bounce time to time and intelligent players will make use of this opportunity to sell their gold positions. It is time to become bullish on commodities with demand and supply mismatch and emerging commodities globally. Investors will have some great opportunity to pick some emerging commodity stocks globally in the coming weeks and months.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions._


----------



## zac

MARKETWINNER said:


> _If investment demand continues to decline and gold ETF holders continue to sell, I believe a gold price below $1,000/oz .Gold will eventually return to its true cost of production.
> 
> _



_

What source of info are you using to derive the <$1000/oz production cost of Gold.

From what I can gather its hovering above it now and from what industry experts say the way Gold Production costs is reported on balance sheets it doesn't take into considerations all the true costs. I forget the terminology but theres apparently something like a $400 disparity between the way analysts work out the costs and the real cost._


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_Please see following links.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...arbarous-relic-will-trade-below-1000-by-2014/

Roubini: Why gold, ‘that barbarous relic,’ will trade below $1,000 by 2015

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1411601-short-gold-for-the-long-haul

Short Gold For The Long Haul 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/150...-supply-and-demand-tell-us?source=google_news

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100640665

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites._


----------



## explod

The bears are out in force, 

in fact stronger than 2001 when gold rose 300%

and 2009 when it rose 250%

Now lets see, this August may see the dawn of the next rise to US$3,500 or so;

and with most mines going to the wall and the Chinese buying the equivelent of world production atm, oh! and the Indians refusal to stop black marketing the stuff, the mints not able to keep up with buyer demand, then who knows.

And it usually goes the other way on my calls anyhow.


----------



## explod

The following is a very good surmation (in my view) of the current propoganda downramping gold:-


http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/26267-gold-bashing-mythology-hits-new-crescendo


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> The following is a very good surmation (in my view) of the current propoganda downramping gold:-
> 
> 
> http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/26267-gold-bashing-mythology-hits-new-crescendo




Honestly explod, where do you get this trash? It's written like a rant and sounds vaguely familiar.

Really the only honest and objective analysts on gold would be the technical analysts, everyone else is either clouded by the love of the stuff, or jaded by past pain...

It's a joke...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Honestly explod,
> 
> 
> It's a joke...




You might as well be asking the pope for a honest appraisal of the catholic church.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Honestly explod, where do you get this trash? It's written like a rant and sounds vaguely familiar.
> 
> Really the only honest and objective analysts on gold would be the technical analysts, everyone else is either clouded by the love of the stuff, or jaded by past pain...
> 
> It's a joke...
> 
> CanOz




when it's going down it's propaganda...going up it's righteous .... couldnt be people dont want it or people do want it, nooooo...as in just selling or just buying....but if you wait, oh, 5000 years or so you might be able to buy milk with it.....

let's make a bigger daily lower low....at least retest the recent low and then we can go for a meow....a big furry feline feral meow....


----------



## explod

Comments to be expected when few realise that the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1 bears little semblance to the physical shortage and the premium most are paying to obtain physical in the hand.

And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.

Having a good knowledge of technical analysis and having watched the gold chart daily since 2004 I can say that gold is worked at specific support and resistance levels, and most frequently out of heavy trading hours, and often at the close on Saturday mornings and coinciding with financial press statements.   It is being manipulated. 

The banks and financial industry hate gold as they cannot work with real physical for trading, trailing fees etc.  There will be many posters here in such industries.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Comments to be expected when few realise that the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1 bears little semblance to the physical shortage and the premium most are paying to obtain physical in the hand.




Absolute rubbish. I bought a handful of single ounce bars today, direct from bullion dealer, at only 2.6% premium to spot...which is lower than last weeks premium, and lower than the previous months premium.



> And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.




No points were presented, so no points will be disserted.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.




How about you stop talking about this and show what you mean with real data??



explod said:


> the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Absolute rubbish. I bought a handful of single ounce bars today, direct from bullion dealer, at only 2.6% premium to spot...which is lower than last weeks premium, and lower than the previous months premium.
> 
> 
> 
> No points were presented, so no points will be disserted.




There will be exceptions and you will note I used the word "most".  I visited two dealers in Melbourne yesterday to buy silver bars and could not.  I could buy on ebay at a 20% premium, have done but do not like to.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> There will be exceptions and you will note I used the word "most".  I visited two dealers in Melbourne yesterday to buy silver bars and could not.  I could buy on ebay at a 20% premium, have done but do not like to.




So you're saying there's a physical shortage of gold (because you went to some coin shops and they didn't have *silver bullion* to sell), but my dealer who buys direct from (Perth Mint, PAMP and ABC Bullion), is stupidly selling me gold at the lowest premiums to spot in over a year?

So you'll buy physical on ebay, but won't just go to the website of any of the four or five major Aussie bullion dealers to buy online?

They sell "bullion grade" copper bars on eBay too, several hundred percent over spot or front month copper price. Must be a huge physical copper shortage.

EDIT: I just spoke to my gold dealer, he said they have 0 bars of copper bullion to sell me, must be a physical shortage.


----------



## sinner

Sprott PHYS fund, share price versus spot gold, and NAV premium charts, says it all...where's the physical shortage?








PHYS, which was trading over 20% to spot in the 2011 spike, now trading for the first time since then, at a discount to NAV.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> when it's going down it's propaganda...going up it's righteous




This comment works both ways for both sides - each time justifying one's position. For eg there was lot's of comment that the gold correction was proof that CB policies are working yet when gold was at 1900 the same commentators were silent. If it goes back over 2k will they then say it's proof that CB policy has failed? I don't think so.

I'm more amazed that the POG hasn't 'corrected' lower given the golden opportunity for the bullion banks to complete the game once and for all? How long can the cappers keep monkey hammering physical demand with paper supply?

They may be pricing gold to counter a 'no taper' continuance of QE, or better yet an increase in QE? A $200 surge from here is better than from $1600? Take gold down to contain a pop and equities up to limit the downside?


----------



## FlyingFox

sinner said:


> So you're saying there's a physical shortage of gold (because you went to some coin shops and they didn't have *silver bullion* to sell), but my dealer who buys direct from (Perth Mint, PAMP and ABC Bullion), is stupidly selling me gold at the lowest premiums to spot in over a year?
> 
> So you'll buy physical on ebay, but won't just go to the website of any of the four or five major Aussie bullion dealers to buy online?
> 
> They sell "bullion grade" copper bars on eBay too, several hundred percent over spot or front month copper price. Must be a huge physical copper shortage.
> 
> EDIT: I just spoke to my gold dealer, he said they have 0 bars of copper bullion to sell me, must be a physical shortage.




+1 . At no point in the past 6 months have I noticed any sort of physical shortage at the bullion dealers (Although I don't check in evry day or week). In fact last time I bought silver (still cursing myself about that) they were selling PAMP bars lower than Perth mint. Don't remember what their margin was at that point but wasn't over a few percent. 

BTW I am talking about 1 kg silver or 100g gold bars not coins with shiny kangaroos on them.


----------



## Ann

Where the F... are you Zed (J)?

I reckon the POG is going to spear upward like.....Whoa!

I just looked at the COTS and OI is rock bottom.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

After it spears down a hundred bucks :hammer:

These guys are so easily spooked by Bernanke. His speech was nothing more than a big computer programming loop  IF/THEN - there's not going to even be a taper coz the real data is still pathetic & they know it.

It's going to be a rough ride with the transition from QE gold to 'fear & safety' gold.......at least in the paper markets. Interesting if we see the 'panic' buying this time?


----------



## pixel

It will be  interesting to watch what happens today.
Should it be pushed back above $1300, a lot of technical buying might start a panic/ greed onrush.




But if 1300 remains resistance, my weekly chart suggests more downside. Target $1150.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Geez, getting there pixel, explosive bounce off 1270 just then, now up 20 in 1/2hr. All the making of a short squeeze?


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Geez, getting there pixel, explosive bounce off 1270 just then, now up 20 in 1/2hr. All the making of a short squeeze?




How about just short covering to start with? Shorts have been covering all morning on the NK and SPI.

Shorts like to take profits too ya know.

A squeeze is when they're trapped, will take any price to get out and they drive the price up frantically as everyone else gets out of the way and tries to get long.

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> How about just short covering to start with? Shorts have been covering all morning on the NK and SPI.
> 
> Shorts like to take profits too ya know.
> 
> A squeeze is when they're trapped, will take any price to get out and they drive the price up frantically as everyone else gets out of the way and tries to get long.
> 
> CanOz




Not really sure what your point is - should I have said 'short covering'? I was just commenting on the $20 spurt at 11:40.

By all accounts it's a pretty thin market (OI) so some big moves both ways to become the norm? What happened to all those banks that were supposedly long now?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And one last kick while he's down.........

(Reuters) - The CME Group, parent of the Chicago Board of Trade, raised initial margins for Comex gold and NYMEX platinum futures, effective after the close of business on Friday, June 21.

The exchange operator raised Comex 100 Gold Futures (GC)initial margins for speculators by 25 percent to $8,800 per contract from $7,040.


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> And one last kick while he's down.........
> 
> (Reuters) - The CME Group, parent of the Chicago Board of Trade, raised initial margins for Comex gold and NYMEX platinum futures, effective after the close of business on Friday, June 21.
> 
> The exchange operator raised Comex 100 Gold Futures (GC)initial margins for speculators by 25 percent to $8,800 per contract from $7,040.




Here we go again, this always happens when volatility picks up...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_Even Jim Rogers says correction for Gold is not over. I agree with this.

According to him that gold will resume its bull market at some point over the current decade. I agree with this too.

I believe inflation will come down during next six months due to lower commodity prices and new developments. There will be life time opportunities in both commodity and stocks markets in the coming quarters. There will be some opportunities in commodity stocks as well.

Some emerging commodities also will shine in the coming decade in addition to some food based agri commodities.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions._


----------



## wayneL

MARKETWINNER said:


> _Even Jim Rogers says correction for Gold is not over. I agree with this.._




I don't agree at all. This ain't no correction, it's a route that's only just beginning.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

WayneL

You may be right. We have to wait and see. Even Jim roger is talking about coming decade not coming year.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> I don't agree at all. This ain't no correction, it's a route that's only just beginning.




Or it could be that USD's are the perceived store of safety when other currencies are a tad ordinary, which would not be good for gold short term (as well as the retail mob getting out of ETF's), but how long can the US be the sole bastion of supposed 'growth' in a world of structurally diminishing GDP, or even recession?

Each day is a day closer to the US having to find answers to deep structural flaws that are essentially insurmountable ie $50-$100Trillion in unfunded liabilities?



CanOz said:


> Here we go again, this always happens when volatility picks up...




The Dow is down 500 pts in 2 days - no change in margins?? What's the bet they reduce margins for equites if it starts to get messy?


----------



## Ann

Uncle Festivus said:


> After it spears down a hundred bucks :hammer:




Yes Uncle Festivus, there is always a lag with a reaction either way when the OI reaches a bottom or top on the COTS. I had actually expected the POG drop to have happened a lot sooner, on reflection I think everyone was watching what the DOW would do when it hit its upper resistance. Anyhoo...this coming week will probably see a reasonable rise in the POG if the DOW continues its merry way down, just my thoughts of course!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> The Dow is down 500 pts in 2 days - no change in margins?? What's the bet they reduce margins for equites if it starts to get messy?




You really have no idea about whats going on do you?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> You really have no idea about whats going on do you?



And you do? Please enlighten us then.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> And you do? Please enlighten us then.




Well since you are the expert along with Explode I thought you would know how they set margin on all futs. Clearly your inference that its a conspiracy shows again the gold bugs know little about there own investment.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Well since you are the expert along with Explode I thought you would know how they set margin on all futs. Clearly your inference that its a conspiracy shows again the gold bugs know little about there own investment.




Well that is nice of you to afford the title of 'expert' to Explod & I. I think age & experience will always do better than youthful exuberance & selective ignorance?ld:

Well did they or didn't they raise the initial margin 25% last week? 

Speculative investors in the benchmark 100-troy ounce gold contract must now put up a deposit of $8,800 to open a position and maintain $8,000 of that to keep that position overnight. That's up from previous initial margin of $7,040, and maintenance margin of $6,400.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/cme-g...-gold-futures-25-20130620-00934#ixzz2X6gBbUG5

Conversely, from your logic, it can be _inferred_ that you think that gold trading on the CME and others is fair & transparent? You'd be in good company as so does this bloke :chimney

<their own investment>


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well did they or didn't they raise the initial margin 25% last week?




I'm not disputing that. I'm disputing the ridiculous inference from you that its a conspiracy.

Why did it change?


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm not disputing that. I'm disputing the ridiculous inference from you that its a conspiracy.
> 
> Why did it change?




To squeeze out leveraged longs of course!


----------



## sinner

skyQuake said:


> To squeeze out leveraged longs of course!




But...but...isn't it the shorts who are leveraged and trading on margin in the futures markets?

Longs only buy shares in crappy ASX mining juniors and silver coins, never the actual gold.


----------



## Ann

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well that is nice of you to afford the title of 'expert' to Explod & I. I think age & experience will always do better than youthful exuberance & selective ignorance?ld:
> Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/cme-g...-gold-futures-25-20130620-00934#ixzz2X6gBbUG5




That is a darn interesting site, never even considered info from that direction! Nasdaq Eeeuuuuwww! Now I know why I hang out on places like this! It is people like you Unc who expand my knowledge! :thankyou:


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.




Sounds like a delicious read!


----------



## skyQuake

Margins are set by volatility.

This factsheet covers it:
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/files/cme-clearing-margins-quick-facts-2011.pdf



Feb 2012 Initial margins were $8250, by may it was $7425, feb this year $5940. 

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-management/files/GC_2009_to_present.pdf

The recent increase is still pretty low in terms of historic margins

------------------------------------------------------------------

Back on topic, imo today is a swing low. Aus rallied hard on Fri, but certain rebals distorted golds o/n in the US. Aus took that as a sign that everything is going to hell and washed out.


----------



## Joules MM1

due a bounce.....least ways another cupla weeks of sideways pricing as is typical in the current donwtrend

and if you like your long-winded bear markets, howzabout this one:


----------



## Joules MM1

you know we're due a bounce when the mail box suddenly clogs up with experts....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxeYM8Q9VJk&feature=youtu.be


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Well since you are the expert along with Explode I thought you would know how they set margin on all futs. Clearly your inference that its a conspiracy shows again the gold bugs know little about there own investment.




Yep, certainly grateful for the thoughts also.  Sadly though there is plenty of ex but no spurt for the crackers.  And these foots margins and shorts are just too much for an old gold bug.  And paper burns which is an environmental concern in my *very humble *view.  

Did u happen to see the recent exhibition on the Wiemer Republic Art.  Money went down 2000% against the US$ in one month just before the 29 crash.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Comments to be expected when few realise that the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1






Trembling Hand said:


> How about you stop talking about this and show what you mean with real data??




Hey Explod got any data to prove this yet..........


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey Explod got any data to prove this yet..........




I have just intimated it is too much for this ole bug.  But when they can paper trade almost a years production, as happened a couple of times recently the ratio of 100 paper to one physical as referred to by some comentators must be close to the mark.

However with your great knowledge of the super fast computer paper trading of gold you can surely paint the picture clearly for us ole t..ds


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I have just intimated it is too much for this ole bug.  But when they can paper trade almost a years production, as happened a couple of times recently the ratio of 100 paper to one physical as referred to by some comentators must be close to the mark.




BS like the rest of your info.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> BS like the rest of your info.




Now that sort of an answer* is rubbish*.

How about your take on the physical gold to paper ratio?  

I would like to be corrected properly with substance for the benefit of all of us who may be missled.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Current open interest which has been about the same give or take a good chunk for the last 5 years is 226,272.

Thats 22 mil oz.

How is that, as you keep saying, 100 times??

From wiki,



> At the end of 2009, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 165,000 tonnes.[2] This can be represented by a cube with an edge length of about 20.28 meters. At $1,600 per ounce,[clarification needed] 165,000 metric tonnes of gold would have a value of $8.8 trillion.
> World production for 2011 was at 2,700 tonnes, compared to 2,260 tonnes for 2008.
> Since the 1880s, South Africa has been the source for a large proportion of the world's gold supply, with about 50% of all gold ever produced having come from South Africa. Production in 1970 accounted for 79% of the world supply, producing about 1,480 tonnes. In 2007 China (with 276 tonnes) overtook South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, the first time since 1905 that South Africa has not been the largest.[77]





from my calculations thats only 800 tonnnes


----------



## CanOz

Must be worries about gold bugs...



> (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) restricts loans against gold ETFs and gold mutual funds - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Perhaps sometimes you can be wrong about why you like something but still be right in the end?

There's been a lot of damage to the leveraged (and not so) players in interest rate world and are now finding that there's no free lunch anymore? Margin call contagon?

Conspiracies? Basically no one has turned up to bid....but some(?) is accumulating (early money?) while ETF's (retail?) are dumping?

Bullion Banks are now Bullion Bugs - or killing the goose that lays the golden egg?




Wheres the value - no bull? Poor NCM......




Monday will be interesting...........


----------



## young-gun

Haven't been here in a while, looks as though the same arguments still rage. Fundamentals still haven't changed. Bernanke simply mentions the word taper with no indication of how and when and yields start to rise. Things will start to slide, no taper required, enter qe infinity supercharged. Glad to hold my gold.


----------



## Joules MM1

young-gun said:


> ... same arguments still rage. Fundamentals still haven't changed. ....Glad to hold my gold.




what's interesting about that comment is that the "fundamentals" have not made any difference to price (ascension) since the 1900 zone..... is it poss that the "fundamentals" _are_ the reason for price decline?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

.......and well-timed sell orders. Down 20 right on 11?

It's 'I'll match your QE & raise you one' to make your currency globally competitive so once global QE is started then no one country can exit by itself without consequences ie even if the US wanted to taper they can't?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> .......and well-timed sell orders. Down 20 right on 11?




Yep very clear to see where the leverage is in the system......


It the gold bugs!!

How ironic!!!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

general consensus opines on QE:

gold is going up because (a) Fed is running QE

gold is going up because (a) Fed is ending QE

gold was 1900 now close to 1200 .......hows that working, exactly?

- - - Updated - - -

several ratio levels were broken early today adding weight of sales with only commercials soaking supply....now that money managers are likely to trend-follow and open shorts even more weight.....

this is minimum target i have been looking for close to 1200 once broken the measure is expanded to x2 the current price width....note the date.....also note the likely historic cross-over of commercials v larger specs contracts


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> general consensus opines on QE:
> 
> gold is going up because (a) Fed is running QE
> 
> gold is going up because (a) Fed is ending QE
> 
> gold was 1900 now close to 1200 .......hows that working, exactly?




None of the above? The Fed is running QE to proportionally take up the job of recycling USD from countries where the current account surplus is declining!



> FOA (8/22/01; 05:18:54MT - usagold.com msg#98)
> 
> The war between gold and the dollar has been over for a while now. The action, today, is between the dollar and the euro arena and this is what will break the price lock on gold. Leaving gold bugs with a lot of questions that ask why this: both systems will strive for a higher currency price for gold; one doing it because they have to; the other doing it because they want to! The casualty on this battlefield will be the world gold market as we know it.




If the USD system is not striving for a higher currency price of gold right now, it's because it doesn't have to. Plain and simple.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> None of the above? The Fed is running QE to proportionally take up the job of recycling USD from countries where the current account surplus is declining!




in your opinion, of course ......how exactly does that enable a trade, up or down?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So close....


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> in your opinion, of course ......how exactly does that enable a trade, up or down?




IMHO, of course, since that is what you asked for.

It doesn't enable a trade, but it does enable an understanding of the market, which allows you to trade as you please.

i.e.

1. Prior to launch of the Euro in 1999, Europe ran a current account surplus and used this real productivity to provide structural support for the USD (recycling those USD into USD denominated financial assets)
2. After the launch of the Euro this structural support was wound down, but the Asian/EM economies picked up the slack, using their real current accounts surplus to buy and recycle into USD.
3. Current account surplus are declining in Asian/EM economies since the GFC, even becoming deficit in some cases. So there is less real productivity with which to recycle USD.
4. But still, some of these Asian/EM block are still deferring consumption, but into physical gold, not USD (these CBs have been large buyers for the last 5Y)
5. The Fed has proportionally taken up the job of recycling those USD.
6. Since the recycling is not being done on the back of real productivity anymore, along with some real global productivity being deferred into physical vaulted gold, all of those USD are heading home, whether the Fed likes it or not.

This is simply a Balance of Payments/accounting fact.

"Trade" off this basis as you wish. My play is relatively simple, and that is to defer some of my real productivity into physical gold, ala "The Central Bank of Sinner".


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> IMHO, of course, since that is what you asked for.
> 
> It doesn't enable a trade, but it does enable an understanding of the market, which allows you to trade as you please.
> 
> i.e.
> 
> 1. Prior to launch of the Euro in 1999, Europe ran a current account surplus and used this real productivity to provide structural support for the USD (recycling those USD into USD denominated financial assets)
> 2. After the launch of the Euro this structural support was wound down, but the Asian/EM economies picked up the slack, using their real current accounts surplus to buy and recycle into USD.
> 3. Current account surplus are declining in Asian/EM economies since the GFC, even becoming deficit in some cases. So there is less real productivity with which to recycle USD.
> 4. But still, some of these Asian/EM block are still deferring consumption, but into physical gold, not USD (these CBs have been large buyers for the last 5Y)
> 5. The Fed has proportionally taken up the job of recycling those USD.
> 6. Since the recycling is not being done on the back of real productivity anymore, along with some real global productivity being deferred into physical vaulted gold, all of those USD are heading home, whether the Fed likes it or not.
> 
> This is simply a Balance of Payments/accounting fact.
> 
> "Trade" off this basis as you wish. My play is relatively simple, and that is to defer some of my real productivity into physical gold, ala "The Central Bank of Sinner".




ah, so, you'd agree that, if we throw all that supposition aside, a trade can be made.....


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> ah, so, you'd agree that, if we throw all that supposition aside, a trade can be made.....




Errr *right*, all of the stuff I just typed, which can easily be verified on the stats page of Central Banks worldwide, is supposition. I don't think that word means what you think it means.

If you wanna trade the XAUUSD FX based on your opinion of QE, go for it. You asked for an opinion, I gave mine. Hell I even gave you my play.


----------



## Joules MM1

simple.....

all the opines about price ascending were just as valid at 1900 as they are at 1200

that's less 700

people who read this can either infer that waffling into ad-hoc opines will save them or make them or they can go down a different road

you know how many people  bought into the opines are hanging on for dear life not in the expectation of great gains but in sheer hope that price will go back up.......

trade opinion or trade price


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> trade opinion or trade price




Awesome, here I was thinking we were trying to have a real discussion, but actually you just wanted to make a generic point at the expense of goldbugs.



I'll leave you to it.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Awesome, here I was thinking we were trying to have a real discussion, but actually you just wanted to make a generic point at the expense of goldbugs.
> 
> 
> 
> I'll leave you to it.




lol....thanks....the point is for the gain of someone who is thinking about trading gold as opposed to someone emotionally tied to the logic of holding gold.....


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> lol....thanks....the point is for the gain of someone who is thinking about trading gold as opposed to someone emotionally tied to the logic of holding gold.....




You're not trading gold though, you're trading XAUUSD, which is the cash/spot ratio of XAU bullion bank accounting units to Eurodollars, plain and simple. There is exactly 0 gold involved in the transaction. 

As a trader, I fail to see how XAUUSD, let alone actual gold is an attractive vehicle for trading, compared to pretty much any other market out there. XAGUSD has higher betas on the same spreads in the interbank market. EURUSD has better liquidity. AUDUSD actually moves during AU hours. XAUUSD doesn't even have any appreciable low hanging fruit around short term mean reversion or momentum, compared to other instruments in th FX complex. 

Anyway, back to the "Joules MM1 Trading Gold based on QE" show. No suppositions there...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So does JPM have a gold delivery problem or not?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> So does JPM have a gold delivery problem or not?




Why would they need to deliver anything?


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ardest-in-south-africa-mines-commodities.html

Gold Bear Market Hits Hardest in South Africa Mines: Commodities

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...arter-since-at-least-1968-as-demand-ebbs.html

Gold and Silver Slump to Lowest Since August 2010 on Fed Outlook


----------



## Joules MM1

link http://au.businessinsider.com/gold-open-interest-shows-bubble-2013-6

The Chart That Best Illustrates How Gold Was A Bubble
Matthew Boesler Today 4:55 AM


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> link http://au.businessinsider.com/gold-open-interest-shows-bubble-2013-6
> 
> The Chart That Best Illustrates How Gold Was A Bubble
> Matthew Boesler Today 4:55 AM




Have they got one for 

The Chart That Best Illustrates How Equities Are A QE Fueled Bubble 

Maybe the miners are leading this time - NCM up 7% today?


----------



## Joules MM1

if you are an "investor" there are some compelling reasons to read this link for your own well being:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost


--------------------------------------------




			
				joules mm1 said:
			
		

> of course, the question is who is soaking up that selling? mostly it'll be the large commercials....even so, price can gap and fall on low volume, so waiting for price to swing to exit at a better price might not work either....the train has left the station


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> if you are an "investor" there are some compelling reasons to read this link for your own well being:
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------------




That makes sense, which is typical of supply and demand in most commodities. The price goes up they grow/mine/make more...extra supply drives the price down until the cost becomes prohibitive and supply gets affected, the price rises to reflect the supply/demand relationship again....

Works for me...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> That makes sense, which is typical of supply and demand in most commodities. The price goes up they grow/mine/make more...extra supply drives the price down until the cost becomes prohibitive and supply gets affected, the price rises to reflect the supply/demand relationship again....
> 
> Works for me...
> 
> CanOz




yeah, use to be a euphemism a positive feedback loop......works both ways huh 

- - - Updated - - -

gold is money

http://www.theonion.com/articles/markets-in-turmoil-as-price-of-money-skyrockets-to,32939/



			
				TheOnion said:
			
		

> NEW YORK””After fluctuating wildly this morning between $1 and $35, the price of money spiked to an unprecedented $90 a dollar in afternoon trading, plunging international financial markets into chaos. “Wall Street erupted into absolute pandemonium once the price of a dollar jumped past $50””if this keeps up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar reached $275 or higher by the closing bell,” said CNBC analyst Marvin Kanisch, noting that the price of 20 dollars had soared well over $1,000 amid frenzied trading before plummeting back down to a more reasonable $430, while the price of five dollars remained steady at $5. “Everywhere you look, panicked investors are clamoring to exchange their dollars””which can only purchase about two cents apiece right now””for more stable dimes and quarters, which are trading at $18 and $32.25, respectively. And with the price of pennies falling below $140 an ounce, it’s easy to understand the sense of urgency. Bottom line: It’s a seller’s market.” With the skyrocketing dollar-to-dollar exchange rate prompting Americans to hoard as much money as possible, President Obama is expected to address the nation later today about easing America’s dependence on domestic currency.



tops !


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> That makes sense, which is typical of supply and demand in most commodities. The price goes up they grow/mine/make more...extra supply drives the price down until the cost becomes prohibitive and supply gets affected, the price rises to reflect the supply/demand relationship again....
> 
> Works for me...
> 
> CanOz




Gold is not a typical commodity in any sense of the word. 

It has a stock:flow ratio which is many *many* orders of magnitude higher than say, oil, or copper, for which the general relationship between supply and demand as you've espoused it plays out.

With commodities that have a low stock:flow ratio, high prices bring out more flow (stockpile supply and new production chasing the new price) which drives the price down. High prices in gold actually have an adverse affect on flows, the higher the price, the worse the effect.



> "Gold has always been funny in that way. So many people worldwide think of it as money, it tends to dry up as the price rises."
> (ANOTHER, 1997)



http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/its-flow-stupid.html


----------



## CanOz

Interesting Sinner, thanks...

Well i think 1200 will stop it...we're not far off.

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Interesting Sinner, thanks...
> 
> Well i think 1200 will stop it...we're not far off.
> 
> CanOz




And the fact that below that price, for an extended period, supply will progressively come out of the market?

Always small, enthusiastic rallies met with systematic, almost mathematically precise sell orders - nice stairs. I guess if you wanted to buy something and the seller kept lowering their price you'd be in no hurry to buy at a higher price either?


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Interesting Sinner, thanks...
> 
> Well i think 1200 will stop it...we're not far off.
> 
> CanOz




lol good call.

Interesting to note however the gold stock indices are up about 2% and are ignoring the fall.


----------



## CanOz

I heard on the radio that it dipped below. I recorded the data last night to watch today. I want to see how it reacted to 1200. Really, if a solid number is approached, buyers should be waiting as sellers pile on and the market plummets into the number in one last push. Then we to bracket...likely for a few days, then re test likely...now if I can get out of bed and on my bike I'd be all set...zzzz


----------



## lucifuge

This might have been said before, I'm not trawling through 500 odd pages to find out...

Looking at the $US gold over the last 13 years in a log scale, I came up with this chart. From 2001 through to end of 2005, there was a clear baseline support in form of a trend. After 2006, the baseline support lifted. The price of today's gold if it had followed the 2001-2005 baseline would be approximately US$1060. Of course this purely a technical diversion and needs to be treated as such. However, if gold were to fall below this 2001-2005 trendline of support, then we would definitely be heading into uncharted waters. If it were to bounce off US$1060-ish then I will take the risk to buy up.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I heard on the radio that it dipped below. I recorded the data last night to watch today. I want to see how it reacted to 1200.




LOL not very well.  Its rooted - stops galore. Face it bugs you lost!!


----------



## CanOz

Stops busted big time .. wow

Arrrghhh.....oh i forgot...i recorded it.

Amazing, even 1200 couldn't slow this farking thing down lol...I just said to my wife, i bet those suckers that lined up for the stuff at 1400 are kicking themselves...lol...

got to have another look at this now, maybe it'll take 1000 to hold it...

CanOz


----------



## pixel

1200 was merely a little psychological level; technically, it's just an in-between level.
Lucifuge's 1160 is far more significant; it also ties in with my triple-top target that I penned in when the 4th break attempt at 1530 succeeded.




In reply to skyQuake's observation: Yesterday's small green candle in the XGD goldies' index came after a heavy fall in earlier days; stock options expired, which means NCM in particular was lifted slightly, so writers of Puts didn't have to be exercised. (That may still have failed in the end.)




We should also remember that today's EOFY may play a role as instos try to window-dress and make their portfolios look better than they actually are.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL not very well.  Its rooted - stops galore. Face it bugs you lost!!




Damnit, if only I had invested all of my savings into stocks instead of gold, back when I had the chance!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Pixel looks like your cat has thrown up all over your charts! Cannot see a thing for all the spew all over them 

I think skyQuake was referring to the US gold index last nigh not ASX.


----------



## CanOz

I agree Pixel, 1160 is the center of this potential bracket area...then if we break lower again, 980...

For full disclosure, i don't hold any gold other than whats around my neck...(gifted pre bull market) My interest is purely from a technical perspective.

CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

Yep, was referring to o/n gold indices - XAU, HUI, GDX and GDXJ etfs

See attached:




Imo last nite's action looks like it'll attack some great buying


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL not very well.  Its rooted - stops galore. Face it bugs you lost!!



So when it was at 1900 we had one? I'm not sure it's a matter of 'winning' or 'losing' anything as there's a bit to go yet. Some parties require the price to be as low as possible for the end of the qtr, so see what happens next week?

The miners think it's all a bit ho hum, which may be a clue, or just window dressing?

Easy money shorting this thing though, all very predictable now.


----------



## sinner

I am still the same buyer I was last week, last year, last decade.

From that perspective all I know is that this week my surplus productivity buys more gold, at a lower premium. 

From a statistical perspective, when have the returns for gold historically been best? When gold is overbought or oversold (as measured by say the 1Y or 10Y returns), when gold sentiment is overbullish or overbearish, when physical premiums are high or low?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Should have been 'won'.

Waterfall from 1200 to 1180 retraced so far, and some.

Waiting for the next waterfall to short


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> So when it was at 1900 we had one?




Only if you sounded the trumpets


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Only if you sounded the trumpets




Don't worry, next time gold is over $1900 I'll play the last post in honour of the fallen fiat and to our glorious victory!

Have a look at this bloke and tell me if he knows what he's on about - 

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Don't worry, next time gold is over $1900 I'll play the last post in honour of the fallen fiat and to our glorious victory!
> 
> Gold doesn't like 'noflation'?




Advances in modern medicine have come along way but the average life span of an Australian male only goes so far Uncle...


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> I am still the same buyer I was last week, last year, last decade.
> 
> From that perspective all I know is that this week my surplus productivity buys more gold, at a lower premium.
> 
> From a statistical perspective, when have the returns for gold historically been best? When gold is overbought or oversold (as measured by say the 1Y or 10Y returns), when gold sentiment is overbullish or overbearish, when physical premiums are high or low?




Sinner, I am surprised to find out that you are so pro-gold (feel free to correct me and call yourself a bug if you want).

The issue I have with all attempts to "value" gold is that, while it may be logical or correct to say "Printing money leads to higher gold price", there exist no framework* to calculate what the price should be. 

What does higher means? Should it be $100 higher? Or $500 higher? 

And by saying gold "should" be higher, it implies that the last gold price was "correct". You simply cannot say that is true, nor can you work out how much expectation is baked in etc etc.

And if one is simply valuing gold on a relative sense (i.e. it should be higher / lower), then a trading approach would seem more appropriate. 

Given that you tend to be quite quantitative and analytical, I'd really like to hear how you value gold in the absolute sense.

* The one framework I've come across was something like historically one ounce of gold equals the price of a fine suit, but that's obviously more of a Big-Mac index type observation than a thoroughly researched conclusion.


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> Given that you tend to be quite quantitative and analytical, I'd really like to hear how you value gold in the absolute sense.




Good question skc, one which IMHO drives right to the heart of the matter.

Valuation is a process you can apply to financial assets. Physical gold is not a financial asset. In fact the nonfinancial nature of gold is one of the few avenues (lack of industrial use which allows it to be hoarded without economic impact, scarcity and molecular properties such as malleability and being highly inert) through which it derives its true utility. 

That is to say, from a different perspective, in todays (1st) world, not many are savers, almost everyone is "fully invested" whether they realise it or not. You don't need to own stocks or bonds to be "invested", bank deposits are what pretty much everyone uses. They don't put physical cash in a shoebox (which coincidentally "returns" the same as gold, $0), rather loan money to the bank and earn a premium of time and risk.

This perspective is how I "value" gold. i.e. _"What is the price I must pay, to save in an asset which is not just another claim on somebody elses future cashflows"_.

Hope that is useful. I don't count myself amongst the regular gold bugs, who seem to derive their investment hypothesis from the idea of a gajillion naked short COMEX contracts, saying paper gold is crap but then buying shares in gold miners (despite the fact that these gold miners are legit shorters on the COMEX), expecting a paper profit. To me it makes no sense. All of my understanding on the topic is derived entirely from the writings of ANOTHER/FOA/FOFOA (http://fofoa.blogspot.com - check the sidebar for the ANOTHER/FOA links). Usually if I'm trying to raise a point on this thread I will include a link to one or more appropriate FOFOA blog posts. IMHO FOFOA is one of the brightest economic minds of our times.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Advances in modern medicine have come along way but the average life span of an Australian male only goes so far Uncle...




Let's see now, what shall I put in my Cryopreservation Casket - guns, ammo, canned & dried food and gold? 

Oo look another waterfall......right on Q

I guess it's cheaper to pay out a smaller chek at lower prices if you don't have any physical left?


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> I guess it's cheaper to pay out a smaller chek at lower prices if you don't have any physical left?




bro, do you even logic?

If you are short on supplies and someone is demanding it, the best play is to drive the fungible dollar price as high as possible, so their dollars buy less gold than before.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> bro, do you even logic?
> 
> If you are short on supplies and someone is demanding it, the best play is to drive the fungible dollar price as high as possible, so their dollars buy less gold than before.




What if your supplies are zero but you've already promised it? Offer them something instead that there is an abundance of?


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> What if your supplies are zero but you've already promised it? Offer them something instead that there is an abundance of?




What evidence do you have that any bullion bank in the world has 0 supplies? 

To me it's very obvious that at the absolute minimum, the bullion banks have annual supply equal to annual mine production. That's not including scrap, retail pukes, gold sales by Western CBs, etc.

- - - Updated - - -

From "Who is draining GLD?"



> http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html
> Randy Strauss at USAGold.com rightly responded to these silly reports with the truth [emphasis mine]:
> 
> RS View: Silly reporters. Instead of calling these “outflows” from the ETFs, it should be called what it is ”” a redemption of a basket of shares for physical gold by the Authorized Participants (e.g. bullion banks). Such share redemptions would actually be a bullish sign because it entails a reduction in the global supply of paper gold while at the same time signifying a preference by the redeeming party for having the metal over the ETF shares. That is, of course, unless the drawdown in physical gold merely represented the routine sales of the gold inventory that occur to cover the ETF’s administrative expenses.
> 
> RS View: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again now, the reporters are getting it wrong when they equate outflows of gold from the ETFs with “sour” investor sentiment. What they need to work harder to understand is that these are NOT actively managed funds whose gold inventory is tweaked to ebb and flow based on public sentiment in the shares. Instead, the ETFs are more like a central coat-check room in which the various bullion banks have temporarily hung out their own inventories (i.e., meaning, their unallocated stock which they hold loosely on behalf of their depositors). And whereas the claim tickets (ETF shares) may freely circulate on the open market, any significant outflow of physical inventory is simply and primarily indicative of a bullion bank reclaiming the original inventory based on a heightened need or desire for physical metal in a tightening market ”” for example, to meet the demands emerging from Asia.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> What evidence do you have that any bullion bank in the world has 0 supplies?
> 
> To me it's very obvious that at the absolute minimum, the bullion banks have annual supply equal to annual mine production. That's not including scrap, retail pukes, gold sales by Western CBs, etc.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> From "Who is draining GLD?"




Yes, I read that from when you posted it before, but doesn't it also support the 'notion' that somebody needs physical, at least that's how I read it?

any significant outflow of physical inventory is simply and primarily indicative of a bullion bank reclaiming the original inventory based on a *heightened need or desire for physical metal in a tightening market *


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, I read that from when you posted it before, but doesn't it also support the 'notion' that somebody needs physical, at least that's how I read it?




Yes it supports the notion that someone wants physical. So? 

What does that have to do with your question



> What if your supplies are zero but you've already promised it?




If supplies were 0, it would be impossible for there to be ETF outflows. The Bbanks aren't the "someone" who needs the gold, obviously. Just as obviously, they have some gold to deliver at any time of day or night, simply by redeeming some shares in GLD.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Yes it supports the notion that someone wants physical. So?
> 
> What does that have to do with your question
> 
> 
> 
> If supplies were 0, it would be impossible for there to be ETF outflows. The Bbanks aren't the "someone" who needs the gold, obviously. Just as obviously, they have some gold to deliver at any time of day or night, simply by redeeming some shares in GLD.




So they need/want physical instead of closing with cash??

I assume there's plenty in the ETF but not so at the BB's hence the outflows, otherwise where's the gold going or why the need to redeem from the ETF? We have both a reduction in Comex wharehouse stock and ETF's - where is it going?

Specifically the BB's supplies are 'tight' or low to the point that they have to borrow back from the ETF? The fact that it's ongoing and volatile means that they need it now and they need a lot?? What for??

Tonnes of Gold Removed From the Major ETFs and the COMEX Since January 1


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> I assume there's plenty in the ETF but not so at the BB's




What is in the ETF was placed there by BBs in return for shares of GLD. 



> hence the outflows, otherwise where's the gold going or why the need to redeem from the ETF? We have both a reduction in Comex wharehouse stock and ETF's - where is it going?




To someone who is taking delivery?



> Specifically the BB's supplies are 'tight' or low to the point that they have to borrow back from the ETF?




They don't borrow back from the ETF. GLD is like a coat room. They are simply going to the clerk with their chip and asking for their coat back. There are something like 2 coats and 10 jackets in the coatroom. They are all indistinguishable from each other.



> The fact that it's ongoing and volatile means that they need it now and they need a lot?? What for??




They're bullion banks. What do you think they need the bullion for? Try and stick to the realm of logic.

Anyway, this discussion went on much longer than I anticipated, so I'm done for the day/week/month/quarter/FY. Catch you all next.


----------



## notting

Gold stocks behaiving like they have bottomed today!!


----------



## bigdog

*Business Spectator*

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...l&utm_content=334071&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=

*Squashing the gold bugs*
Stephen Bartholomeusz27 Jun, 2:30 PM38

Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/6/27/economy/squashing-gold-bugs#ixzz2XUpqkZC8


Over the past fortnight the gold price has had its second precipitous fall this year, taking its decline since the start of April towards 25 per cent. As is now the case across most financial markets, the blame lies with the Fed.

The price first plunged in early April, diving from around $US1600 an ounce to around $US130 an ounce. After stabilising around the $US1400 an ounce level, over the past fortnight it has tumbled again, this time to below $US1250 an ounce.

The explanation for the direction of the price, if not the complete explanation for its magnitude, is obvious.

It was in early April that the markets detected a strengthening of the language being used by the members of the US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee when discussing an eventual exit from their QEIII quantitative easing program. The second wave of selling – and not just of gold – hit this month when it became clear, and was subsequently broadly confirmed, that the “tapering” of the program would begin later this year.

The market’s pre-emption of that tapering of the $US85 billion a month program of bond and mortgage purchases by the Fed has caused US bond rates to rise, equity markets to fall – and the dollar to strengthen.

There are direct and self-reinforcing correlations between the US dollar, US rates and the gold price. The rise in US bond yields amid signs of a strengthening US economic recovery pushes up bond yields and the dollar, which impacts negatively on the gold price.

It is the steepness of the decline in the gold price rather than its direction, however, that appears to have taken the markets by surprise.

After the April sell-off the gold market had settled as physical buyers returned. In the latest downward spiral, which has taken the price to three-year lows, there hasn’t been much evidence of physical demand.

That could be because central bankers aren’t adding to their reserves and the emerging pressures within China’s economy and other developing economies has impacted that demand.

On the sell side, in April there were massive outflows of funds from gold exchange-traded funds in line with a more general exodus of investors from commodity exchange traded funds.

Even after the gold price peaked at around $US1900 in September 2011 those funds had continued to increase their gold holdings until late last year, when they held about 85 million ounces before a relatively gentle slide that turned into a rout in April.

It would appear that the most recent sell-off is again due to ETFs and wealthy investors dumping their holdings in response to the Fed’s outlining the framework for a tapering of the QEIII program and then an eventual exit from it next year.

Gold has traditionally been used as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluations.

There is nothing to suggest that inflation is on the horizon – the Fed and the Europeans appear more concerned about deflation than inflation – but the US dollar is, as US interest rates have started to climb, on the rise and therefore the traditional supports for the price have been withdrawn.

The extent and rate of the falls is probably due to the extent of the ETF holdings but more broadly to the appetite for risk, and the leverage that was associated with it, when official interest rates in the US and Europe were close to zero and the central banks were pumping trillions of dollars a year of very cheap liquidity into the global financial system.

With rates rising and the prospect that the pumps will slow soon the markets have responded by attempting to pre-emptively, and almost instantly, unwind all the exposures to risk that have been built during the post-crisis period, when central banks have effectively injected about $US10 trillion of liquidity into the system.

With less than 20 per cent of the holdings of  gold ETF’s turning over so far this year there is potentially still a considerable over-hang in that market and presumably not dissimilar positions in other risk assets.

The good/bad news for gold bugs is that the fall in the gold price has had a leveraged impact on the share prices of gold miners, which have been smashed. The response of companies like Barrick and Newcrest has been to try to cut costs, stop loss-making or marginal production and reign in capital; expenditures.

At the margin supply will be more constrained than it was, which help in establishing some kind of eventual floor under the price, although it should be noted that five years ago the price was around $US800 an ounce, or about 35 per cent lower than it is today.


----------



## explod

> ... COMEX continues to hold its place as the largest and most sophisticated meeting place for buyers and sellers to express their gold price opinions, in the form of bids and offers, on what the price should be. COMEX remains the beating heart of gold price discovery.
> 
> 
> 
> Gold futures contracts are referred to as "paper-gold" because the size of this market is said to be over 100 times larger than physical gold available...open interest on the COMEX, at the time of writing, accounted for over 85% of demand on the gold futures market, so COMEX receives the most examination here. In theory investors are able to take delivery of the futures contract on expiry, although few do, instead choosing to roll the contract...the fact remains that all the long positions on COMEX cannot be settled in gold.




Note 100 paper ounces to a physical gold ounce is suggested here:-

http://www.zerohedge.com/contribute...line-real-time-physical-gold-price-datasource

This whole article is a good one in my view for dummies such as myself.  Will post up more on the ratio as I spot them.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Gold futures contracts are referred to as "paper-gold" because the size of this market is said to be over 100 times larger than physical gold available..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Note 100 paper ounces to a physical gold ounce is suggested here:-
Click to expand...



By who? Argue the facts and figures... I showed you the facts. They say that is utter rubbish. Are you not worried that you have based your wealth on a myth????



"Is said to be"........hahahahahahahahha


----------



## FlyingFox

What are everyone's thoughts on the idea that the drop in gold prices are signalling deflationary attitudes.

http://www.marcfabernews.com/2013/03/marc-faber-worried-about-deflationary.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A rarity - gold up $35 in 45min! Shook the shorts up a bit, but will it hold? Bullish break-out from pennant in progress.......



FlyingFox said:


> What are everyone's thoughts on the idea that the drop in gold prices are signalling deflationary attitudes.
> 
> http://www.marcfabernews.com/2013/03/marc-faber-worried-about-deflationary.html




It's been deflationary for 5 years so that's nothing new for gold. Gold likes inflation (or the propensity for it from QE) or deflation but not noflation? When the real deflation starts that's risk on again?

*The gold and silver crash is artificial*


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> By who? Argue the facts and figures... I showed you the facts. They say that is utter rubbish. Are you not worried that you have based your wealth on a myth????
> 
> 
> 
> "Is said to be"........hahahahahahahahha





No champ, my first 5 kilo blocks of siver I purchased for $800 each. 

Gold to me is just the "bell weather", it will become so valuable that Krudds and Co's will sieze *it in the national interest*.

Note Sinclair again this morning calling $50,000 gold, he was correct the last time when he called $1650, for two years prior, from $800.

But for me... 

*I just plodalong*, so we will see.


----------



## FlyingFox

Uncle Festivus said:


> A rarity - gold up $35 in 45min! Shook the shorts up a bit, but will it hold? Bullish break-out from pennant in progress.......
> 
> 
> 
> It's been deflationary for 5 years so that's nothing new for gold. Gold likes inflation (or the propensity for it from QE) or deflation but not noflation? When the real deflation starts that's risk on again?
> 
> *The gold and silver crash is artificial*




Why is deflation good for gold?


----------



## zac

FlyingFox said:


> Why is deflation good for gold?




Its not, hence the price crashing lately. It peaked on a belief of inflation due to QE which didn't occur and its now sunk due to a belief of deflation with QE scaled back.


----------



## Trembling Hand

FlyingFox said:


> Why is deflation good for gold?




I would guess that Unc means if we get deflation the game is over. After trying to pump prime the system with a few trillion dollars and getting deflation still there will be another banking crises and a flight to gold as the only protection against wealth disappearing - Cyprus style.

- - - Updated - - -



explod said:


> No champ, my first 5 kilo blocks of siver I purchased for $800 each.
> 
> Gold to me is just the "bell weather", it will become so valuable that Krudds and Co's will sieze *it in the national interest*.
> 
> Note Sinclair again this morning calling $50,000 gold, he was correct the last time when he called $1650, for two years prior, from $800.
> 
> But for me...
> 
> *I just plodalong*, so we will see.




So is the 100 to 1 true or not?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I would guess that Unc means if we get deflation the game is over. After trying to pump prime the system with a few trillion dollars and getting deflation still there will be another banking crises and a flight to gold as the only protection against wealth disappearing - Cyprus style.




Well done TH, couldn't have said it better myself 

They desperately want just 2% 'target' yet QE just maintains flatline? The point is, if there's just the slightest contraction there's nothing left in the professors armory, no more bazookas, because everyone and the drovers dog knows how the system works & is rorted for eg the Irish bankers tapes, so no more bailouts for the TBTF's.

The bail-in model template was a success and will be seen again. Government deposit insurance is worthless, even here.

Once the effects of the spike in interest rates starts to really have an impact in the highly leveraged $300T interest rate swap market then that's the start of the end game.

The next one will be QEWhateverItTakes.....let alone the &%^$^# taper....

PS TH I think you've hauled him over the coals enough about the 100 to 1?


----------



## Joules MM1

weekend light reading 
------------------------------------------

link http://www.silverdoctors.com/chart-..._campaign=Feed:+Silverdoctors+(SilverDoctors)
*Chart of the Day: Gold’s Biggest Buy Signal of Entire Bull Market!*
June 28, 2013 By The Doc

------------------------------------------

link http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost
*Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost*
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/26/2013 

------------------------------------------
link http://www.juniorminingnews.com/?p=2638
*Gold mining not sustainable below $1,200*
Posted on June 28, 2013

------------------------------------------

link http://srsroccoreport.com/the-primary-miners-the-fed-18-silver/the-primary-miners-the-fed-18-silver/
*Can the Primary Miners Survive $18 Silver?*
Filed in Mining, Precious Metals	by SRSrocco	on June 28, 2013


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well done TH, couldn't have said it better myself
> 
> They desperately want just 2% 'target' yet QE just maintains flatline? The point is, if there's just the slightest contraction there's nothing left in the professors armory, no more bazookas, because everyone and the drovers dog knows how the system works & is rorted for eg the Irish bankers tapes, so no more bailouts for the TBTF's.
> 
> The bail-in model template was a success and will be seen again. Government deposit insurance is worthless, even here.
> 
> Once the effects of the spike in interest rates starts to really have an impact in the highly leveraged $300T interest rate swap market then that's the start of the end game.
> 
> The next one will be QEWhateverItTakes.....let alone the &%^$^# taper....
> 
> PS TH I think you've hauled him over the coals enough about the 100 to 1?




Agreed been saying it for a long time as well.


----------



## explod

Actually the *paper gold price *is irrelevant,,, 

done,,, 

dusted,,, 

and caput,,, 

so dont' worry for me Unc., we move on to the real stuff.



> The Great Comex Paper Gold Dump: Online Real-Time Physical Gold Price Datasource




http://www.zerohedge.com/contribute...line-real-time-physical-gold-price-datasource


----------



## Trembling Hand

Any other mis-information you would like people to put their hard earned against Explod?

Todays price for the real stuff



:


----------



## skyQuake

Still looks like Gold Equities leading Gold:




Canada really took off overnight. Looks like the Aussie mid caps.. err I mean SMALL cap goldies will be up at least 10%-20% come monday.


----------



## drillinto

June 21, 2013
Where Next For Gold?
Alastair Ford

Gold bulls have been engaged in a bloody war of attrition of late, and in spite of a surge in physical demand, have been forced to beat a slow retreat in the face of heavy selling from the holders of exchange traded products.

Gold bulls have been engaged in a bloody war of attrition of late, and in spite of a surge in physical demand, have been forced to beat a slow retreat in the face of heavy selling from the holders of exchange traded products.

The US Federal reserve is now planning gradually to ease off its quantitative easing programme, meaning that the natural inflationary effect on the gold price as more money has been printed month-in, month-out, will now disappear.

The same is true for other commodities, which have also been weaker of late, in particular silver.

The gold price has fallen from the high of US$1,794 per ounce hit last summer, to a current price of around US$1,294. That’s a chunky old US$500 drop in a short space of time, and has had some of the shriller bulls, like Jim Sinclair, in a tizz for a while. 

“Gold is never easy”, said Jim in a recent missive to shareholders in his gold company Tanzanian Royalty Exploration, and to other followers. “Gold is the tell tale of a broken system. Gold therefore is the barometer of the risk factors of economic conditions.”

With that in mind, some bulls argue that it is in the interests of those who control the global financial system at the highest level to depress the gold price artificially in order to make it appear that the system is in ruder health than it really is. 

It is, these bulls argue, part of an attempt by central bankers and others to bluff their way to financial recovery. The tool is paper gold, and the selling of ETPs.

And that, so the argument runs, is why demand for physical is on the rise, even as the gold price falls. Supply and demand for physical is beyond the abilities of anyone to control, even if the Indians are imposing more taxes on imports.

Here though, the argument that central bankers are to blame appears to become somewhat circular. Let’s assume that gold is indeed the “barometer” of economic conditions. If it was an effective and fully functional barometer it wouldn’t be subject to serious manipulation by anyone. 

So either: gold is an effective barometer, and global markets are signalling the start of an economic recovery by selling down gold; or gold is ineffective as a barometer and subject to manipulation, which makes its desirability as an asset class somewhat questionable.

Of course, the price of anything tradable is theoretically subject to manipulation - just witness the shenanigans that the central bankers of the world have been pulling with their own currencies. 

Across the globe, the major economies have been forcing down the value of their respective currencies by printing money, and holding down interest rates. You could argue that that has in effect been a manipulation of the gold price up by central bankers, not down. 

On the other hand, the price of gold was on a long upward trend before the money printing programme started, in November of 2008 in the case of the USA. 

QE1, as it’s known, began with a US$600 billion programme of buying mortgage-backed securities, and by the time it was wound up had purchased over US$2.1 trillion worth of MBSs, bank debt and treasury notes. 

QE2 took place between November 2010 and June 2011, and accounted for a further US$600 billion in treasury securities. 

QE3 was then initiated in September 2012, a move which sparked the last major spike in gold, and allowed for an open-ended programme to purchase US$40 billion per month in MBSs.

All that money printing cheapened the value of a dollar significantly. But because all the world’s other major economies were either also printing money or pegged to the dollar, the effects in the currency markets was muted. 

In equities and commodities it was very clear, though. With the value of cash falling and interest rates at close to zero, investors piled into other asset classes, notably equities and commodities. 

Now that the Fed has indicated that QE3 is likely to come to an end by mid-2014, equities and commodities are falling. But not by too much. The Fed’s plan is not to crash the system. On the contrary, as with any centrally-based policy-maker, its plan is to maintain the position of its client, the US people, as the pre-eminent economic power in the world. 

To achieve that the taps will be switched off slowly and carefully. That’s why markets dipped rather than plunged on the news, and why gold is still trading at only slightly less than double the price it was at when the quantitative easing programme started. 

Where it goes from here is an interesting question. Certainly, the old bullish argument that there’s still more economic pain in the system remains as valid as ever. There’s still plenty of toxic debt around, government deficits are still not really under control, and although so far the stimulus hasn’t generated the inflation everyone expected, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that that inflation is still stored up in the system and poised to burst out.

On the other hand, economic news out of the US is better, and although Greece continues to lurch from one crisis to the next, the Eurozone as a whole has looked more stable this year. Whether the Eurozone itself is viable remains open to question, but any shocks occasioned by its potential disintegration may not now be as severe as some of the shocks that are already in the rear view mirror. 

China remains a concern in terms of the quality of its data and the rate of its slowdown. But actually, as far as gold bugs are concerned, China on the whole is good news. More wealth creation means more buyers for gold, and a real pillar of strength in the demand for physical that the major price dips have brought out into the open.

Over at broker RFC Ambrian they note that traditionally an ounce of gold has held its value against the price of a good suit. This though, then prompts the debate as to what actually constitutes a good suit. TM Lewin? Gieves & Hawkes? Savile Row? 

And in a sense, the same argument could actually be made about the dollar itself. What actually is a dollar worth? The answer today is 1/1,294ths of an ounce of gold. But depending on whose making the dollars and why, it could be a whole lot different in  a few months time. 

Source >>> www.minesite.com
*****


----------



## explod

[QUOTEHere though, the argument that central bankers are to blame appears to become somewhat circular. Let’s assume that gold is indeed the “barometer” of economic conditions. If it was an effective and fully functional barometer it wouldn’t be subject to serious manipulation by anyone. ][/QUOTE]

This is exactly why it is manipulated down, because it is a true barometer of economic health.

Thanks for posting up Drininto


----------



## Uncle Festivus

skyQuake said:


> Still looks like Gold Equities leading Gold:
> 
> Canada really took off overnight. Looks like the Aussie mid caps.. err I mean SMALL cap goldies will be up at least 10%-20% come monday.




Yes, there was something happening on Thursday with gold equities even before gold was still to fall another $60. Just end of year house keeping to improve the ledger or something more substantial?

What platform/software is that chart from?


----------



## skyQuake

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, there was something happening on Thursday with gold equities even before gold was still to fall another $60. Just end of year house keeping to improve the ledger or something more substantial?
> 
> What platform/software is that chart from?




Chart is from Bloomberg

I reckon it was more than just end of quarter stuff, US EoFY is Sept30 and Canada I believe is Dec31. So it probably has some legs to run, esp seeing the way the junior goldies bounced o/n.


----------



## Peak Debt

Interesting chart here from APF comparing the gold price movements to the classic 'bubble' pattern... two different views.

Gold is a classic bubble - it follows the typical pattern precisely. Goldbugs. The time to panic... is now.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/gold-slide-isn-t-over-184734466.html

The Gold Slide Isn’t Over


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Peak Debt said:


> Interesting chart here from APF comparing the gold price movements to the classic 'bubble' pattern... two different views.




Well I guess The Australian Property Forum would know all about bubbles and would be an authority on gold? The pot calling the kettle black?


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> This perspective is how I "value" gold. i.e. _"What is the price I must pay, to save in an asset which is not just another claim on somebody elses future cashflows"_.




While I can understand the perspective, I don't understand how you use that value gold.

Unless we get goods and services being quoted in gold ounces, gold has no value aside from the amount of fiat currency we can get in return.


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> While I can understand the perspective, I don't understand how you use that value gold.
> 
> Unless we get goods and services being quoted in gold ounces, gold has no value aside from the amount of fiat currency we can get in return.




Having goods and services quoted in gold ounces is essentially a gold standard, which is something I am definitely not advocating. In fact what I would like to see is the opposite, I would like the price of physical gold to be truly *set free.* I think this process is occurring right now.

Paper money is good, and is here to stay. The way I see it, paper money bids for all exchange, but only gold bids for paper money. e.g. Of your annual gross, on average, 4 months goes to the Government, 7 months to pay your living expenses and 1 month to add to the "capital account". Paper money works well for 11 of those 12 months, and to the extent that everybody is holding some to pay taxes and living expenses, it is an adequate short term store of value. But when it comes to that final month of adding to the capital account, a long term store of value is required, so you would bid for some physical gold with 1/12 of your annual gross.

A couple of articles which might help understanding my perspective better
http://goldswitzerland.com/what-is-key-for-the-price-formation-of-gold/print/ (I don't agree with all of the authors viewpoints here, but the stuff about gold price formation is spot on)


> There are two different kinds of commodities and we need to understand the price formation process differently for each one. The first one I’m going to call, a consumption commodity and the other type I’m going to call an asset.
> 
> .......
> 
> 
> So, now that I’ve laid out this background, the price of a good in a consumption market goes where it needs to go in order to bring consumption in line with production. In an asset market, consumption and production do not constrain the price. The bidding process is about who has the greatest economic motivation to hold each unit of the good. The pricing process is primarily an auction over the existing stocks of the asset. Whoever values the asset the most will end up owning it, and those who value it less will own something else instead. And that, in in my view, is the way to understand gold price formation.




EDIT: Obviously the "economic motivation" here is to buy a long term "store of value" which can be hoarded without impacting the economy, is not a claim on someones future cashflows, is scarce and is liquid.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/inflation-or-hyperinflation.html


> ... Money is an associated value in our heads. It's not a physical item.
> 
> Yet for the last 30+ years, the fully fiat dollar, a purely symbolic token currency, has been behaving as if it actually is an item of value equal to the real goods and services the US has received through its perpetual trade deficit. Understanding how this was even possible is the only way to understand how it will end.


----------



## explod

The problem with the charts above for gold is that the general public have not even heard of gold yet.

In fact, I read somewhere about three years back, that less than 0.5% of the investment community have been involved in this gold bubble so far.  

So is it really a bubble?

Or a relic of a time when money was backed by real tangible assets (such as gold) and productive work?

And in the following, suppression of gold by the banks is to fake that all is ok:-

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...s_-_This_Will_Crash_The_Financial_System.html


----------



## explod

> The price of gold is going down. That is what the charts, newspapers and pundits are all saying. What I think they are deliberately not saying is that the value and desirability, as opposed to the price of gold, is going up and will go up further.
> 
> Make no sense?  Well I think it does if you remember there are two types of ‘gold’ for sale. One is metal, the other is paper. It is paper gold that is being dumped not the metal. The metal is being bought at a fair old rate. But because there is so much paper gold around and the major sellers and market makers in paper gold prefer metal and paper to be confused, even thought to be identical (their trade depends on this confusion), no one seems to be pointing out the very different dynamic happening in paper and  metal gold.
> 
> Paper gold is being sold. And those selling it are the likes of Soros Fund Management LLC and BlackRock Inc. As Bloomberg reports today,




Full report a:- http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/05/paper-gold-metal-gold-when-worlds-diverge/


----------



## prawn_86

explod said:


> Full report a:- http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/05/paper-gold-metal-gold-when-worlds-diverge/




I still want to know where i can get over the 'paper' price, for my physical gold. Can you help?


----------



## explod

prawn_86 said:


> I still want to know where i can get over the 'paper' price, for my physical gold. Can you help?




Ebay is the best bet as dealers are working from spot so you are mad to part with it at the moment.  My dealer says it is all bad and that the price will continue to fall more so urges me to sell.  But when I try to buy from him he always has some excuse, and Friday when I lined him up and then called the shop was shut.  Maybe they are trying to accumulate against the mugs selling.

A little patience and you may be glad you held on though.  However I am a mug too, often wrong and not qualified to give advice.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> In fact what I would like to see is the opposite, I would like the price of physical gold to be truly *set free.* I think this process is occurring right now.






sinner said:


> Obviously the "economic motivation" here is to buy a long term "store of value" which can be hoarded without impacting the economy, is not a claim on someones future cashflows, is scarce and is liquid.




No matter how I tried to keep an open mind, I simply cannot accept or understand the notion that there's value in gold indpendent of it's "price", except may be in a doomsday scenario. And if I was planning for a doomsday scenario, I'd be buying food and weapons before gold...

Thanks sinner for all your responses, but I am no closer to understanding how you reach your attitude towards gold. Let's just agree to disagree.


----------



## sinner

I'm sorry I can't articulate the idea well enough for you skc.

The simplest explanation I can think of is that gold is valued based on the flow of physical gold. This doesn't necessarily mean the price goes up when the flow goes down and vice versa, rather that marginal producers (in the modern economy this is basically Saudi and China) who buy gold care much more about the ability of their productivity to bid on gold than the specific amount of gold their productivity can bid on.

I know that I paste this link a lot and I also realise it's very long, but for me it was the 'a-ha' moment:

"It's the flow, stupid" http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/its-flow-stupid.html


> It is that the price of gold does not matter to the producer/saver, only the flow of gold matters. I'll say it again. The producer/saver doesn't care about the price of gold, only the flow. To the producer/saver the price doesn't matter because it is a straight currency exchange, like exchanging dollars for euros.




"Flow Addendum" http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/flow-addendum.html

That's the best I can offer


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-inte...t-the-gold-bugs-got-stung-now-the-pawn-shops/

First the Gold Bugs Got Stung, Now the Pawn Shops


----------



## Smurf1976

explod said:


> The problem with the charts above for gold is that the general public have not even heard of gold yet.
> 
> In fact, I read somewhere about three years back, that less than 0.5% of the investment community have been involved in this gold bubble so far.



And of those who have been involved, even fewer have made a major commitment to it.

People put 50% or more of their portfolio into stocks or property without too much thought but it seems that where gold is concerned that figure tends to be a lot lower. Anecdotal evidence says that it's 5% or 10% of assets into gold for those few who are invested in it at all. That just doesn't sound like a bubble to me.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Too much temptation on gold is not good for any economy. If we analyse Indian economy we can get some idea about this. In advance I had some concern about nation of gold consumers and how it will affect the economy. Now number one gold consumer India has to face for the one of the biggest currency loss. Their currency fell 4.9 percent last month.

According to following link Jewellery sector In India agrees to stop selling gold bars and coins until India's trade balance improves. Gold has affected for their trade balance as well. This new development also will affect negatively to the gold market.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-bars-062520132

Gold Bars & Coin Sales Suspended by India's Jewellery Sector

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The old geo-political risk factor back in play with Portugal next on the chopping block. Oil back over $100. Greece needs a tad more, but what's a few $Billion here & there? Cyprus? What Cyprus? Egypt. Etc etc......riots.....

Computers making markets untradable?

Gold futures dropped $5 in one second Tuesday morning, demonstrating that the fast-moving computerized marketplace is not isolated to the traditional equity securities world.

Eric Hunsader, CEO of Nanex, a provider of real-time data to traders, noted that 700 trades in 1,000 gold future contracts of Gold for August Delivery GCQ3 drove the price of the futures security down from $1250 to $1245 in a second at 10:11:15 a.m.

Prices of the same gold futures contracts jumped $6 in a second at 3:01:50 a.m., also on trades in 1,000 gold future contracts, Hunsader added.


----------



## CanOz

Don't know about all that but i'm ok to see it and CL going up at the moment


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> View attachment 53155




This isn't a total return chart, but you get the idea...


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Any other mis-information you would like people to put their hard earned against Explod?
> 
> Todays price for the real stuff
> View attachment 53081
> 
> 
> :




Miss Information and Miss Understanding, lovely lasses both of them. 

Stuff the metal gold stocks are where the leverage is!


----------



## notting

The Shanghai slumped but gold held steady and is now up 1.2%.
Previously as Goldstocks appeared to be bottoming Gold was coming down with them in unison with the fall of Shanghai.
Gold stocks fell today but Gold did not go with them as what happened last time the Shanga capitulated.
The saftey play on gold may be making a comeback.

Don't ask me why this makes sense to me.

Notables


----------



## CanOz

I think we could have put in another significant low in the POG....

We've also met the consolidation target to the tick, and now broke the recent trend down...

Hmmmm....Looking for trades back to 1400, in valid below 1205.

CanOz


----------



## drillinto

GOLD: How John Paulson Lost $630 Million

http://commodityhq.com/2013/how-john-paulson-lost-630-million/
***


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Apparently there is a 'great rotation' going on from bonds to equities? You would think there would be some damage from rates rising so fast over the last month or so for eg US 10yr has surged over 70%. 

2 more months till the German elections so more of the same {insert market supporting rhetoric here} from the ECB, even while German industrial production takes a hit? 

US GDP downgrade is old news - now looking at yet another second half recovery.....

One last great suck into equities no doubt as the only game left in town, while the media compound the 'gold is dead' theme continuously? 

Patient buyers wait for the sellers to have their fill...nice bounce from 1208 to 1242....is this the base?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whats up with gold?




Freemasons finally get that margin call?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats up with gold?
> 
> View attachment 53238
> 
> 
> Freemasons finally get that margin call?




lol...i thought it was the inflation data


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats up with gold?
> 
> Freemasons finally get that margin call?




lol, check the spot/front spread or GOFO, pretty sure that's why.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats up with gold?
> 
> Freemasons finally get that margin call?




Someone getting squeezed out backwards??


----------



## Porper

Uncle Festivus said:


> One last great suck into equities no doubt as the only game left in town




Problem is Uncle it's been "The final suck into equities" for a few years now according to yourself and your merry men 

Maybe you are turning into a Bull...slowly but surely...and probably correctly over the longer term.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Porper said:


> Problem is Uncle it's been "The final suck into equities" for a few years now according to yourself and your merry men
> 
> Maybe you are turning into a Bull...slowly but surely...and probably correctly over the longer term.




I'll be a bull when it takes less than a dollar to make a dollar in GDP, all it is now is the afterglow of central bank debt financed bubbles. All it takes is time to resolve......

For at least the last 5 years as they try to 'wealth effect' the economy back to health the stock market has been the obvious place to manipulate, sorry, encourage everyone to place their hard earned. The problem is everyone is not earning anything to buy shares with - US markets have gone higher on lower volume and leveraged debt, again. It really is the last game in town, and when that runs it course the game is over. How long the game can keep going in spite of what looks now to be the beginning of a global recession, again, is anyones guess?

It's now been 5 years of this so called new bull market pricing in more than a recovery while expecting the fundamentals to play catch up?

Longer term? In the end they can't hide frrom their $Trillions in liabilities that will and are becoming due - health, pensions, interest debt etc etc 

I closed my longs at the last peak - so I take it you are buying US equities at these levels?


----------



## Porper

Uncle Festivus said:


> I closed my longs at the last peak - so I take it you are buying US equities at these levels?




No, I have just moved to 90.0% cash...I am not clever enough to buy at the exact bottom and sell at the absolute top. But then you don't need to as you know.

As for the U.S I am sure they will be able to put doomsday off for a lot longer than people imagine. Decades as opposed to a year or two. Despite what the "Do It Yourself Economist" thinks the world economy won't be allowed to collapse. There is always a way to put off the inevitable. Don't know what it is but this is the reason I don't comment on fundamentals...there are far cleverer people in key positions than us Uncle.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Porper said:


> No, I have just moved to 90.0% cash...I am not clever enough to buy at the exact bottom and sell at the absolute top. But then you don't need to as you know.
> 
> As for the U.S I am sure they will be able to put doomsday off for a lot longer than people imagine. Decades as opposed to a year or two. Despite what the "Do It Yourself Economist" thinks the world economy won't be allowed to collapse. There is always a way to put off the inevitable. Don't know what it is but this is the reason I don't comment on fundamentals...there are far cleverer people in key positions than us Uncle.




I was 90% cash at 10am this morning, now heading in to XAO.

I agree about Gold.

Much pain awaiting for Gold holders imo.

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Porper said:


> ...there are far cleverer people in key positions than us Uncle.



90% cash is hardly bullish??

It's the 'clever' people who got us into this mess and don't have a clue how to get us out of it. Bernanke himself admitted that they didn't know why rates were rising now. The _really_ clever ones are entrusted with facilitating the machinations behind the scenes.

Back on topic at least, there is a bullish ascending triangle looking to break out above 1260.....?


----------



## Porper

Uncle Festivus said:


> 90% cash is hardly bullish??
> 
> It's the 'clever' people who got us into this mess and don't have a clue how to get us out of it. Bernanke himself admitted that they didn't know why rates were rising now. The _really_ clever ones are entrusted with facilitating the machinations behind the scenes.
> 
> Back on topic at least, there is a bullish ascending triangle looking to break out above 1260.....?




Not bullish stocks medium term at all, despite the latest rally. It's all about time frame. As for Gold a Fib cluster has been hit on the weekly chart (can't post a chart here) but looking for a bounce only. A major bottom not in i.m.o.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Porper said:


> A major bottom not in i.m.o.




What is your 'target' for the bottom & why?


----------



## Porper

Uncle Festivus said:


> What is your 'target' for the bottom & why?




Some stopping volume at the end of June on this weekly chart but hardly bouncing hard. A messy rally up to 1300 -1400 implies another move down to the 61.8% retracement level around 1000 which should take until well into next year to unfold.

It would take a break above 1420 to suggest the larger correction has completed. Not likely. 

All technical and fundamentals ignored.


----------



## notting

That would be good because we can then look forward to this:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100874899

Being careful no to miss the boat!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Well that wasn't a surprise - no taper?




get


GOFOr it?



Scramble?


----------



## CanOz

Gold has retraced to the previous bracket (value area). Price can get rejected here, accelerate through, or bracket and then decide....


----------



## Intrinsic Value

CanOz said:


> Gold has retraced to the previous bracket (value area). Price can get rejected here, accelerate through, or bracket and then decide....




Thanks for the in depth analysis in other words you dont have a clue where the POG is going just like everyone else


----------



## CanOz

Intrinsic Value said:


> Thanks for the in depth analysis in other words you dont have a clue where the POG is going just like everyone else




Of course i don't, I'm not a fortune teller IV...

Analysis, fundamental or technical only presents the possibilities. I'm not offering a trade opportunity, only suggesting that the price is heading into the bracket area. Now if you wanted a trade opportunity you would watch the price action and see how the limits of the bracket area are tested and whether or not responsive buyers/sellers are found there. It a area where value was accepted before, that makes it relevant NOW.

Enjoy.

CanOz


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/07/11/gold-prices-could-still-correct-50-rogers/

Gold Prices Could Still Correct 50%: Rogers


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> By who? Argue the facts and figures... I showed you the facts. They say that is utter rubbish. Are you not worried that you have based your wealth on a myth????
> 
> 
> 
> "Is said to be"........hahahahahahahahha






> "Most purchasers of 'gold' in foreign exchange markets," Naylor-Leyland writes, "have no physical backing to their trades (estimated to be around 90 percent unallocated). This is the nature of the OTC 'gold' currency market. Considering that most people invest in gold exactly because they fear the fractional-reserve nature of the banking system, this is a bizarre state of affairs and I believe has led us to the widening backwardation we now see as the new 'normal.'
> 
> "What is happening now is that the absolutely inevitable 'run' on the 100:1 leveraged bullion banking system is truly underway. The bullion banks want to get gold back into contango and stop the movement of the remaining inventories by shaking the market lower, using paper leverage to do so. It hasn't worked. Indeed more and more investors are now seeking allocation, delivery, and physical metal at the expense of synthetic products offered by the banks. The squeeze we have been waiting for is closing in; it is always darkest just before dawn."




http://www.gata.org/node/12793


----------



## Uncle Festivus

"Is said to be"........hahahahahahahahha

Stress in the Gold Market

The following interpretation of gold backwardation rests on a few assumptions.

- The participants in the London bullion market act like banks. They borrow and lend both US$ paper currency and gold, but they are not primarily long or short gold versus US$. They do not primarily speculate and do not engage in proprietary trading. (This is why they are called bullion banks. They are institutions that lend and borrow gold and silver. Some of them have a commercial banking license, but some do not.)

- *Their physical gold is fractionally reserved, i.e. they lend a certain multiple of the actual physical reserve by creating ledger entries for gold.* These are the unallocated gold accounts.

- Because of the fractional reserve lending, the participants in the bullion market are prone to a classic run on the bank, i.e. a run on the physical bullion reserve. This happens when the depositors who hold gold in unallocated accounts wish to take possession of the physical bullion and request allocation, while the bank cannot recall their gold loans quickly enough in order to get hold of the physical bullion they have lent to somebody else. A previous article contains some sample balance sheets in order to illustrate how this works.
In the case of such a run on the bank, the bullion bank needs to borrow physical gold in the market for the period between the day on which the customer withdraws physical gold and the day on which an outstanding gold loan is repaid in physical gold.

One way of borrowing gold from the market is to swap US$ for gold, i.e. borrow gold and lend US$, in the LBMA forward market (In this swap, the borrower at first receives the gold as a credit to their unallocated account, but they can immediately request allocation, take possession of the physcial and deliver it to the customer who wanted to withdraw physical gold). The interest received for such a swap is GOFO. If, however, the bullion banks need to obtain large volumes of such swaps under pressure, this will drive down GOFO, possibly rendering it negative so that the bullion banks have to pay interest in order to borrow gold against a US$ collateral. This is a plausible explanation for the downward spikes in GOFO seen in Figure 1 above, some of which have sent the gold forward market into backwardation.

Another option is to borrow gold for US$ using the spot and futures markets by purchasing gold in the spot market and at the same time selling a futures contract, for example at the New York Commodities Exchange (COMEX). *The signature of bullion banks borrowing gold from the market is then buying pressure in the market for physical gold plus an increasing short position in the futures market, possibly causing backwardation at the COMEX.* Gold bugs often interpret this as outright market manipulation, but it may just be some bullion bank borrowing physical gold from the market for a fixed period of time.

Straight from *Victor The Cleaner*......

Stress?

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&title=gold_forwards&show=2013

08-Jul-13	-0.06500	-0.04333	-0.03000	0.03500	0.18167										
09-Jul-13	-0.10600	-0.08400	-0.07000	-0.01000	0.13800										
10-Jul-13	-0.11167	-0.08000	-0.05833	-0.00167	0.14000										
11-Jul-13	-0.05167	-0.02833	-0.01500	0.04667	0.15833										
12-Jul-13	-0.04167	-0.02333	-0.01333	0.06167	0.17000										
15-Jul-13	-0.05500	-0.04000	-0.02333	0.06167	0.18500										
16-Jul-13	-0.05667	-0.04333	-0.02500	0.06333	0.18833	

Reaction?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/19/derivatives-gold-idUSL1N0FP1CB20130719

July 19 (IFR) - A dislocation in the gold futures market indicating that demand for physical delivery of the metal is now far outweighing supply has intensified in recent weeks, increasing concern in the market that the change may not be a momentary blip and participants may have become over-leveraged.

Gold went into backwardation in comparison to the three-month futures contract in early January, meaning the spot price rose above the short-dated future contact. Now that process looks set to creep out the futures curve to longer-dated maturities, signalling some cause for alarm.

"The fact that has remained and widened ... indicates that the physical market has tightened up substantially, a postulation that is corroborated by the growing premiums being paid ... and the ongoing wholesale delays in the delivery of substantial bullion tonnage," wrote Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management in a report this month.

"What is happening now is that the absolutely inevitable 'run' on the 100:1 leveraged bullion banking system is truly underway."


COMEX Registered Gold Falls To Another New Low Ahead of Option Expiration and August Delivery

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

Nick of Sharelynx.com does a rough calculation of the open interest/registered or dealer's gold. The number of owners per ounce is up to a bull market high of 46 claims for every ounce registered as deliverable.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

.............the failure to imagine something outside assuredly comfortable perceptions of systemic reality. 

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/art...gold_obsession_is_wholly_rational_100487.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Porper said:


> As for the U.S I am sure they will be able to put doomsday off for a lot longer than people imagine. Decades as opposed to a year or two. Despite what the "Do It Yourself Economist" thinks the world economy won't be allowed to collapse. There is always a way to put off the inevitable. Don't know what it is but this is the reason I don't comment on fundamentals...there are far cleverer people in key positions than us Uncle.




Decades? I am reminded of this post every day I see things that say that the GFC is definitely not 'contained'.

'the world economy won't be allowed to collapse'?

'There is always a way to put off the inevitable'? Not for Detroit at least, and several larger munis and cities next on the Big Bankruptcy Express....the real 'recovery'?


Philadelphia: 5th Largest City in US is Effectively Bankrupt; Mayor Holds Closed Meeting With Wall Street to Discuss Asset Sales
Houston: CPAs state Houston is Bankrupt
LA: Mayor of Los Angeles Says "Bankruptcy is Not an Option"
New York Cities: Public Pension Ponzi Scheme - New York Cities Borrow From Pension Plan to Make Contributions
Baltimore: Time for Baltimore to "Pull a Vallejo" and Declare Bankruptcy
Miami: Miami Commissioner Says Bankruptcy is City's Best Hope
Chris Christie Says New Jersey Careens Towards Becoming Greece
Chicago: Chicago's Mayor Daley Discusses Bankruptcy For City Pensions 
Scranton: Scranton Mayor Slashes All Public Worker Wages to $7.25 per Hour, Including Police, Fire, His Own; City Effectively Bankrupt
Harrisburg: Pennsylvania State Capital Files for Bankruptcy
Zombified Cities Roundup: Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead; Financial Urgency in Miami; Oakland Pension Time Bomb; How Pensions Crashed Stockton and San Bernardino

"Do It Yourself Economist" - it doesn't take much to better a graduate economist ie simply making 1+1 = 10, when the real world knows it has always = 2. And very soon it will revert back to = 2, but perhaps not before = 0? 

.............the failure to imagine something outside assuredly comfortable perceptions of systemic reality.

1320...................


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Uncle Festivus said:


> .............the failure to imagine something outside assuredly comfortable perceptions of systemic reality.
> 
> http://www.realclearmarkets.com/art...gold_obsession_is_wholly_rational_100487.html




Cut through the economic jargon and what you get is that many people dont trust bankers one bit and especially bankers who print money ad infinitum and employ other dubious economic stategies to try to manipulate the POG downwards.

Gold has long beens seens as a hedge in many of the emerging countries through SE Asia, and has always had a big following in the Middle East and India and of course when the going gets tough there has always been a flight to gold.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Intrinsic Value said:


> Cut through the economic jargon and what you get is that many people dont trust bankers one bit and especially bankers who print money ad infinitum and employ other dubious economic stategies to try to manipulate the POG downwards.




Err....  what "dubious economic strategies to try to manipulate the POG downwards" and doesn't printing money cause hard assets to rise in price? 

I think your thesis here is a little 180 ar$e about!


----------



## Accumulator

up towards $1700


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Trembling Hand said:


> Err....  what "dubious economic strategies to try to manipulate the POG downwards" and doesn't printing money cause hard assets to rise in price?
> 
> I think your thesis here is a little 180 ar$e about!




Read the article.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Err....  what "dubious economic strategies to try to manipulate the POG downwards" and doesn't printing money cause hard assets to rise in price?
> 
> I think your thesis here is a little 180 ar$e about!




No, they wouldn't manipulate the 'market' would they????

The maneuvering in markets for oil, wheat, cotton, coffee *and more* have brought billions in profits to investment banks like Goldman, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, while forcing consumers to pay more every time they fill up a gas tank, flick on a light switch, open a beer or buy a cellphone. In the last year, federal authorities have accused three banks, including JPMorgan, of rigging electricity prices, and last week JPMorgan was trying to reach a settlement that could cost it $500 million.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/b...-to-banks-pure-gold.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&

SHOULD BANKS CONTROL POWER PLANTS, WAREHOUSES, AND OIL REFINERIES?

What a coincidence - a fire? in the basement of the JPM building? Official news outlets using the cone of silence? Perhaps just a rehearsal? A subterfuge for an empty vault? 



A bit of resistance for gold at 1340??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Intrinsic Value said:


> Read the article.




I did it is just an opinion from some dude. You guys are great...... 

"Feds printing of money can only cause gold to rise" >>>>>>> Gold falls >>>>>> "the Fed is printing money to manipulate gold"




LOL






LOST!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> What a coincidence - a fire? in the basement of the JPM building? Official news outlets using the cone of silence? Perhaps just a rehearsal? A subterfuge for an empty vault?





I believe they also have hangers at every airport throughout the world. So they can refill the planes to dose the sheeple with chemtrails,


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Trembling Hand said:


> I did it is just an opinion from some dude. You guys are great......
> 
> "Feds printing of money can only cause gold to rise" >>>>>>> Gold falls >>>>>> "the Fed is printing money to manipulate gold"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LOL
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LOST!




It is better articulated than yours.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I believe they also have hangers at every airport throughout the world. So they can refill the planes to dose the sheeple with chemtrails,




Don't get started with Chemtrails :horse:

All markets are manipulated, it's just that there's no point in getting your head cut off if you point out the, ahem, 'irregularities', and still want a job, or better still, your life?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Intrinsic Value said:


> It is better articulated than yours.




From the same guy who cannot actually explain this nonsense,



Intrinsic Value said:


> Cut through the economic jargon and what you get is that many people dont trust bankers one bit and especially bankers who print money ad infinitum and employ other dubious economic stategies to try to manipulate the POG downwards.


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Trembling Hand said:


> From the same guy who cannot actually explain this nonsense,




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...d-it-make-sense-fed-not-manipulate-gold-price

Maybe this would explain it better for you. 

If I was Bernanke and was risking my entire reputation and a nasty place in history if things go badly, (nice to meet you Herr Von Havenstein) on engineering a recovery and a rising gold price could potentially unravel all my printing largess and solvency schemes, why wouldn’t I manipulate the price of gold?

Does it really make any sense at all that Bernanke would leave gold to trade in an open and transparent market?  Hardly.

Consider.  The Fed has conjured multiple trillions of digital dollars out thin air in the last five years.  These efforts have propped up the Treasury market, the domestic TBTF banks, the foreign TBTF banks, the ECB, the BOE, every European sovereign bond market, the RMBS market, the CMBS market, the equity market, the housing market and the entire industrial and soft commodity complexes, to name a few.

Since the price of gold we see on our Bloomberg screens is set via derivatives and overwhelmingly settled in USD, the ability for central banks and bullion banks to manipulate the price of gold is way too easy.  All the bullion banks have to do is coordinate (as in LIBOR), sell in size and punish anyone in their way. 

Take losses?  No problem, more fiat can be conjured post-haste.  So long as no one is taking physical delivery, the band(k) plays on.  (Actually, physical demand delivery IS becoming a major new problem for the banks but this is a topic for a different note.)

A quickly rising gold price upsets this fiat-engineered, centrally planned, non-market based recovery.  Gold left to its’ own devices would signal the unwinding the rehypothecated world of shadow banking where latent monetary inflation goes to summer (think of it as the monetary Hamptons where only the Wall Street elite get to play). 

It would signal the true rise of many emerging market countries at the expense of their creditors in developed markets. 

But most importantly, it would signal a huge lack of faith in the US dollar.  A currency backed by nothing more than faith in central banking.

A faith which is dying a little every day.  Just ask the Japanese or Europeans how confident they are in their own Oracles of Delphi.  This loss of faith in central banking immediately translates into a loss of faith in the currency and just as quickly works its magic on bond prices – meaning lower bond prices and higher rates.

So without being too ranty, I’ll end this one short today.  Just remember, the next time someone is questioning why the Fed would be manipulating gold, turn the question around and ask them what incentive Bernanke has to NOT manipulate the price of gold.

And fortunately for Bernanke, as the list above illustrates, he’s living in Washington D.C. at exactly the right moment to do whatever he wants, lie about it and get away with it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh god!  ZeroHedge has been completely discredited a loooong time ago.

It is the place for nut bag conspiracy fools and people who are bitter at their own losses.

try again.


----------



## Smurf1976

Uncle Festivus said:


> All markets are manipulated, it's just that there's no point in getting your head cut off if you point out the, ahem, 'irregularities', and still want a job, or better still, your life?



The oil companies are pretty blatant in their efforts to manipulate the petrol market in the local area.

The council effectively manipulates the market for certain types of property, either intentionally or unintentionally, via planning schemes and other measures. There's nothing "free" about the real estate market when it is subject to a significant degree of central planning.

Most electricity generation companies in Australia try to manipulate the market for electricity and there is noticeable success at times. Some of them have even made their basic strategy public knowledge.

So I find it hard to believe that central banks and big financial firms wouldn't at least attempt to manipulate various markets, gold included.


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh god!  ZeroHedge has been completely discredited a loooong time ago.
> 
> It is the place for nut bag conspiracy fools and people who are bitter at their own losses.
> 
> try again.




Unless you have something of substance to offer don't bother responding with your inane comments it just makes you look silly.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Faber on Sprott


----------



## Trembling Hand

Intrinsic Value said:


> Unless you have something of substance to offer don't bother responding with your inane comments it just makes you look silly.




Really?? You are the one who is posting rubbish from the nutbag part of the blogsphere.

You have not shown one reason why the Fed so called money printing is making gold fall. We are still at my first challenge to you as to how that is happening.

Unless you can offer some logic to your quote below we will just have to leave it that you haven't a clue as to the reasons or theory behind such a statement. And its just a bitter brain dump.



Intrinsic Value said:


> Cut through the economic jargon and what you get is that many people dont trust bankers one bit and especially* bankers who print money ad infinitum and employ other dubious economic stategies to try to manipulate the POG downwards.*




Got anything???


----------



## Trembling Hand

Question to Faber in the above vid from Unc > "do you think that the decline in gold from February was an attack by central banks"

Faber "Not really, I think that as I said I don't trust central banks intellect that much"


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Trembling Hand said:


> Really?? You are the one who is posting rubbish from the nutbag part of the blogsphere.
> 
> You have not shown one reason why the Fed so called money printing is making gold fall. We are still at my first challenge to you as to how that is happening.
> 
> Unless you can offer some logic to your quote below we will just have to leave it that you haven't a clue as to the reasons or theory behind such a statement. And its just a bitter brain dump.
> 
> 
> 
> Got anything???




I never said printing money would make the price of gold fall. In fact in the long term I would think it is more likely gold will rise as a result of money printing. 

What i said was that people have no confidence in central bankers who print money ad infinitum and employ other economic strategies to put downward pressure on the POG which was a general comment about lack of confidence in the central banking system as per what was in the quoted article. Had you bothered to read either of the articles that would have been abudantly clear.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Intrinsic Value said:


> I never said printing money would make the price of gold fall. In fact in the long term I would think it is more likely gold will rise as a result of money printing.
> 
> What i said was that people have no confidence in central bankers who print money ad infinitum and employ other economic strategies to put downward pressure on the POG which was a general comment about lack of confidence in the central banking system as per what was in the quoted article. Had you bothered to read either of the articles that would have been abudantly clear.




I did read them. It was just an *opinion *from some dude who is clearly taking heat from falling POG. Just because its on the internet does not make it true. Case in point just about everything on Zerohedge.

What I am asking you is show me how they "employ other economic strategies to put downward pressure on the POG".

If you cannot offer anything plausible then I guess you are just also quoting the speal from the gold bugs.

Do you have an original opinion or theory or proof?


----------



## Intrinsic Value

Trembling Hand said:


> I did read them. It was just an *opinion *from some dude who is clearly taking heat from falling POG. Just because its on the internet does not make it true. Case in point just about everything on Zerohedge.
> 
> What I am asking you is show me how they "employ other economic strategies to put downward pressure on the POG".
> 
> If you cannot offer anything plausible then I guess you are just also quoting the speal from the gold bugs.
> 
> Do you have an original opinion or theory or proof?




Of course it is just an opinion as everything written is an opinion

Feel free to debunk some of the theories presented with your own arguments.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Intrinsic Value said:


> Of course it is just an opinion as everything written is an opinion
> 
> Feel free to debunk some of the theories presented with your own arguments.




As I suspect. "Fed makes gold go down just because it does".


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> As I suspect. "Fed makes gold go down just because it does".




No, it creates those conditions because it wants to.

It is defending the system of paper backed value as against a currency backed by a physical value such as land, productivity and as was prior to 1972, gold.

The currency collapse of the Wiemer Republic is worth reading up on and any of Ludwig von Mises publications.  Have read them myself and there is a bit to get the head around in order to see how the wealthy really run the whole show.  Back in 2005 I was discussing economic affairs with an elderly lady on a plane from Melbourne to Adelaide.  She told me to read up on the Rothschild's.  Did that and in a few years realised how wet behind the ears I had been (still so of course T/H).  She was of Jewish background and a retired Doctor of Medicine, her Father was lost in the gas chamber.  The big true picture really does come from such people who learned and know their history first hand from very hard experience.

One could argue and try to put up facts and figures here all day but you can only satisfy those who want to see.  One must ponder a realisation that if the system is really flawed then the consequences are too great to allow into ones zone of comfort.   

And yes the recent big drops in gold were accompanied by very public announcements by the Fed and big movements on the charts at times when most traders would have knocked off for the day and around holidays such as Thanksgiving.   And also unprecedented downramping occurred over the last few months via the media and the commercial finance industry.  Of course these industries do not like investments that do not pay interest, dividends or trailing fees on which they can take a percentage or work with on the way through.

Have been watching these actions since 2004 when I purchased my first blocks of physical.  And a gold/silver stacker does not trade it, one buys and holds for the long term.  It is all about preservation in uncertain times.

Have to laugh at the Yanks latest green shoot the last few days, in property going up 7%.  The public tend to forget that it has dropped 80% over the last 10 years to get here, and in that time thier dollar has gone from $1.3 to .83.  Again they boast low unemployment when in fact if one is unemployed for more than 12 months they are no longer counted.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> The currency collapse of the Wiemer Republic is worth reading up on and any of Ludwig von Mises publications.  Have read them myself and there is a bit to get the head around in order to see how the wealthy really run the whole show.




You clearly haven't read von Mises with the bit underlined. He's main theory is about how hard it is to do the utter BS in the rest of your post.


Rothschild's!!! You really are embarrassing.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> You clearly haven't read von Mises with the bit underlined. He's main theory is about how hard it is to do the utter BS in the rest of your post.
> 
> 
> Rothschild's!!! You really are embarrassing.




What is wrong about the Rothschild story in this.  Worth about 300 trillion against the US total value of 200 trillion.  The old man financed
both side of conflicts between major powers.  And one wonders at where it comes from now but he certainly got the banking system onto that track.

Von Misers, yes a sentence had a cart before the horse, but he is about free trade and sound money and one of his books in fact I down loaded and printed in full on my little cannon, *and read it*.

Now instead of a great big negative blast , how about some sensible dialogue explaining where I am wrong.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> What is wrong about the Rothschild story in this.  Worth about 300 trillion against the US total value of 200 trillion.  The old man financed
> both side of conflicts between major powers.  And one wonders at where it comes from now but he certainly got the banking system onto that track.
> 
> Von Misers, yes a sentence had a cart before the horse, but he is about free trade and sound money and one of his books in fact I down loaded and printed in full on my little cannon, *and read it*.
> 
> Now instead of a great big negative blast , how about some sensible dialogue explaining where I am wrong.




What have the Rothschild and a little old lady sitting at the back of the plane in cattle class got to do with the price of gold. LOL!!


----------



## sibeiho

Gold is definitely gonna make the mother of all rallies pretty soon...opportunity at the next higher low should be taken in full position if you are bullish on gold but still trying to pick the bottom....

anyway take a look at this blog...i might have shorted the S&P 500 from the highest point...irregardless the S&P is gonna rollover in due time...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The heat is on for Lava Girl. At least one regulator isn't asleep at the helm of justice?

Truth, Justice OR the American way?

U.S. Accuses JPMorgan of Manipulating Energy Markets

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/07/29/energy-regulator-details-case-against-jpmorgan/?_r=0

Then again, maybe not?

Months earlier, investigators planned to recommend that the regulator find Ms. Masters, who holds a powerful position within JPMorgan as the head of its commodities business, “individually liable.” But as the investigation progressed, these people said, top energy regulatory officials have been leaning toward not pursuing any civil charges against Ms. Masters.

It's a good thing that the gold market is squeaky clean imp:


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> What have the Rothschild and a little old lady sitting at the back of the plane in cattle class got to do with the price of gold. LOL!!




Has everything to do with understanding the greedy banking system and why it controls gold, in my exceptionally humble opinion of course.

Just thought was all worth the read for those that could be bothered.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Has everything to do with understanding the greedy banking system and why it controls gold, in my exceptionally humble opinion of course.




How did that system go you figured out to pick the winners on a roulette wheel go?


----------



## sinner

If the Rothschilds control the world, why not just invest in the Rothschilds?

RCP (RIT Capital Partners) is listed on the LSE along with St James Place, and a bunch of similar Rothschilds companies listed on Euronext.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Someone with an unfortunate name has yet another conspiracy theory. 

From Turd Ferguson......

Alright...so let's begin at the end. Here are the conclusions I posted and asked SSJ to review:


GLD was "funded" with gold leased out (sold) by the BoE and SNB.
With everything going on, not only are those entities no longer willing to provide supply, they're actually taking their gold back before it's too late.
Holders like Paulson and Soros are the "fly in the ointment" as they have a GLD claim on the same gold that the BoE and SNB claim as their own "leased" assets.
We are witnessing a managed, slow-burn "run" on the London vaults, where supposed "allocated" gold rests for entities worldwide but this gold has instead been leased out, not only to the GLD, but sold into the market and currently dangling around the necks and wrists of Asians as well as being recast into 1Kg Chinese bars.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4896/forensic-investigation-ssj

"The information in this post is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, I disclaim all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness.  This post is produced for information purposes only."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> If the Rothschilds control the world, why not just invest in the Rothschilds?
> 
> RCP (RIT Capital Partners) is listed on the LSE along with St James Place, and a bunch of similar Rothschilds companies listed on Euronext.




http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/banking/rothchild.html


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Someone with an unfortunate name has yet another conspiracy theory.
> 
> From Turd Ferguson......
> 
> Alright...so let's begin at the end. Here are the conclusions I posted and asked SSJ to review:
> 
> 
> GLD was "funded" with gold leased out (sold) by the BoE and SNB.
> With everything going on, not only are those entities no longer willing to provide supply, they're actually taking their gold back before it's too late.
> Holders like Paulson and Soros are the "fly in the ointment" as they have a GLD claim on the same gold that the BoE and SNB claim as their own "leased" assets.
> We are witnessing a managed, slow-burn "run" on the London vaults, where supposed "allocated" gold rests for entities worldwide but this gold has instead been leased out, not only to the GLD, but sold into the market and currently dangling around the necks and wrists of Asians as well as being recast into 1Kg Chinese bars.
> 
> http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4896/forensic-investigation-ssj
> 
> "The information in this post is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, I disclaim all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness.  This post is produced for information purposes only."




lol @ Turd Ferguson, seriously the worst gold commenter out there. He repeats the tired shpiel like above (never a single piece of 1st hand research of course) and then posts trade advice buying COMEX futures and options. How is that even remotely logically consistent? I just checked out his website, he has come a long way from being a ZH commenter to selling "premium content" on his own website! I guess it is a better racket than doing something productive with your life. I remember his charts marked with stupid crap like "Turd's Bottom" for silver, which was repeatedly molested after 2011 :microwave


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I thought the gold equities would have a bit of a hissy fit after the drop overnight but NCM is actually green, so far. Usually see this as a precurser to some strength in the POG in tonights session sometimes - get set in the equities and follow through with the underlying. Who knows these days?

ps rising oil price should please Bernanke - finally get some inflation perhaps? Wild times indeed.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> lol @ Turd Ferguson,
> 
> I remember his charts marked with stupid crap like "Turd's Bottom" for silver,




Hahaha "turd bottom" good one.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Hahaha "turd bottom" good one.




If you want a few laughs just google "turds bottom", my favorite is the post from May 2012 haha, of course that is not the "first" bottom he called, just the funniest in hindsight.


----------



## CanOz

We have the continuous VWAP at 1286, looks like were headed there..

Edit:maybe even the lower side of the last bracket at 71


----------



## CanOz

GOLD COT...the commercials have nearly unwound their shorts....


----------



## explod

Would like your take on this T/H.

It was one similar awhile back where I picked up my take on 100 paper contracts to an ounce of gold.

From Harvey Organ's blog today


> Derivatives...can never settle.
> 
> ...More importantly, something else did not exist back in the 1970's...derivatives.  Yes, options started to trade back in 1975 or '76 but they were limited in use.  They were truly used to either hedge or speculate, now they are used to control the entire show (and "will lose control of the entire show when they all unwind"... A. Schectman).  OTC derivatives which have no clearing house or "referee" to oversee the game are levered 100 to 1 or more.  Do the math on this one, if you can create $1 billion out of thin air (which is done all over the planet every single day by multiples), if you can lever that 100 to 1 you can sell the entire globe's Gold production (on paper) within 48 hours from a mere $1 billion creation!
> 
> Is it really Gold?  Of course not.  Does it actually settle like Gold?  No.  But, it is used to at an absolute minimum "affect" price and in reality they have been used to "EFFECT" price.  So the answer as to "why" Gold and Silver have not performed like they did in the 1970's is really just a simple one word answer..."derivatives".  Derivatives, both regulated and unregulated,... derivatives for products that settle and don't settle, derivatives on derivatives on paper products.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Would like your take on this T/H.
> 
> It was one similar awhile back where I picked up my take on 100 paper contracts to an ounce of gold.
> 
> From Harvey Organ's blog today




Yeah simple confirmation bias. I've already given you the actual DATA. *That is in disputable and easily checked FACTS.* But you and your mad men refuse to believe what is right here,

http://www.cmegroup.com/wrappedpages/web_monthly_report/Web_OI_Report_CMEG.pdf


That I guess makes one of us clinical delusional. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delusional_disorder


Seek help............ :silly:


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah simple confirmation bias. I've already given you the actual DATA. *That is in disputable and easily checked FACTS.* But you and your mad men refuse to believe what is right here,
> 
> http://www.cmegroup.com/wrappedpages/web_monthly_report/Web_OI_Report_CMEG.pdf




So TH what exactly does that attachment tell us? It's a mass of data but without some explanation for us simple mortals it is useless.

And from your second link I conclude that a great many members of this forum are delusional - yourself included.
At least judging by indicator number 4.

" Indicators of a delusion:
4. The individual tends to be humorless and oversensitive ...... "


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> So TH what exactly does that attachment tell us? It's a mass of data but without some explanation for us simple mortals it is useless.




I have explained it..... well should I say 100 times! As I'm feeling very sensitive I'll leave it to simple myths then.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> I have explained it..... well should I say 100 times! As I'm feeling very sensitive I'll leave it to simple myths then.




Additional Indicators of Delusional Behaviour (again from your link)

 - Despite his/her profound conviction, there is often a quality of secretiveness or suspicion when the patient is questioned about it.

 - The patient expresses an idea or belief with unusual persistence or force ("should I say 100 times"!)


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Additional Indicators of Delusional Behaviour (again from your link)
> 
> - Despite his/her profound conviction, there is often a quality of secretiveness or suspicion when the patient is questioned about it.
> 
> - The patient expresses an idea or belief with unusual persistence or force ("should I say 100 times"!)




Or could just be sick of fools who cannot read data but happy to spew out conspiracy without taking the time to find out there legitimacy. 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=261&p=780338&viewfull=1#post780338

Tell me if you need further awaking and explanation is needed. If not enjoy your mis-understanding.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Or could just be sick of fools who cannot read data but happy to spew out conspiracy without taking the time to find out there legitimacy.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=261&p=780338&viewfull=1#post780338
> 
> Tell me if you need further awaking and explanation is needed. If not enjoy your mis-understanding.




*Delusional Disorder Indicator No. 6:*
"An attempt to contradict the belief is likely to arouse an inappropriately strong emotional reaction, often with irritability and hostility."

It was you who posed the rhetorical question "That I guess makes one of us clinical delusional".
wherein  'us' means either 'you' or 'Explod'.

Thanks to your subsequent responses I am left with no mis-understanding about who is delusional.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> *Delusional Disorder Indicator No. 6:*
> "An attempt to contradict the belief is likely to arouse an inappropriately strong emotional reaction, often with irritability and hostility."
> 
> It was you who posed the rhetorical question "That I guess makes one of us clinical delusional".
> wherein  'us' means either 'you' or 'Explod'.
> 
> Thanks to your subsequent responses I am left with no mis-understanding about who is delusional.




How is that gold trading going mate?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> How is that gold trading going mate?




I don't trade it. I buy physical only and store it.
Trading it is for mugs.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> I don't trade it. I buy physical only and store it.
> Trading it is for mugs.




So you waiting for the default in paper gold?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> So you waiting for the default in paper gold?




No. I just collect for the sake of it. Same as I insure my house for the sake of it  - which  does not mean that I am waiting for my house to burn down.
Besides gold bars are beautiful to look at. Can't say the same for paper.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> No. I just collect for the sake of it. Same as I insure my house for the sake of it  - which  does not mean that I am waiting for my house to burn down.
> Besides gold bars are beautiful to look at. Can't say the same for paper.




So its insurance against something? what?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Or could just be sick of fools who cannot read data but happy to spew out conspiracy without taking the time to find out there legitimacy.
> Tell me if you need further awaking and explanation is needed. If not enjoy your mis-understanding.




I just want to understand why (to me) there seems to be more gold in/or on paper than there is physical gold.

Why is the question one that seems to make you angry and give you a regard that some of us are stupid.

Is it perhaps that mere mortals at the bottom of the pile are not allowed to have a straight forward idea of how finance works.

That assumes of course that you do know.

Apparently the current backwardation in gold is the highest of all time now.  Your take on this would also be worthwhile for me as a lot of these overseas sights one visits have to be regarded with some caution.


----------



## explod

Bintang said:


> I don't trade it. I buy physical only and store it.
> Trading it is for mugs.




In 1970 gold was $35 an ounce.  Even after the crash in 1980 down to $260 in 1999 a gold holder was very well ahead indeed.  Today of course it is around $1300

35 into 1300 over 43 years is pretty good in my book.

Now I bet some of the older traders/students of people like W D Gann would have roughly picked the bottoms and tops and done very very well indeed.

So like you Bintang I am holding, as the blow off the top like we had in 1980, on looking at both charts, is still well ahead of us yet.

But we shall see.


----------



## zac

explod said:


> I just want to understand why (to me) there seems to be more gold in/or on paper than there is physical gold.




Theres a few reasons as to why which im trying to get my head around, but in a sense its no different to how theres more debt in the world than there is money.
Fractional Reserve/Banking.

Can sell far far more than you have in reserve.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> So its insurance against something? what?




The unexpected.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I just want to understand why (to me) there seems to be more gold in/or on paper than there is physical gold.
> 
> Why is the question one that seems to make you angry and give you a regard that some of us are stupid.




EXPLOD  I have asked you many many many times to show me WHERE there is more paper than physical. Not some nut bag gold bug posting it on his silly conspiracy blog. Actual data.

Until you do that its clear you have nothing but a conspiracy theory. I have shown you the data but you have repeatedly ignored it in favour of you gold bugs nonsense.


SO PLEASE LETS SETTLE THIS. WHERE IS ALL THE PAPER GOLD TO THE VALUE OF 100 TIMES??

Gee even 20 times more


----------



## explod

> if you can lever that 100 to 1 you can sell the entire globe's Gold production (on paper) within 48 hours from a mere $1 billion creation!




In simple words to someone who does not understand T/H, what does the above sentence mean?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> I have shown you the data but you have repeatedly ignored it in favour of you gold bugs nonsense.




You imply that the data you have shown us is the only reliable data in existence. Is it? What makes you so sure? Is it factual? Indisputable? have you read the fine print on the bottom of that CME report?:

_"The information herein is taken form source believed to be reliable. However, it is intended for the purposes of information and education only and is not guaranteed by the CME Group as to accuracy,
completeness ...."_


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> You imply that the data you have shown us is the only reliable data in existence. Is it? What makes you so sure? Is it factual? Indisputable? have you read the fine print on the bottom of that CME report?:
> 
> _"The information herein is taken form source believed to be reliable. However, it is intended for the purposes of information and education only and is not guaranteed by the CME Group as to accuracy,
> completeness ...."_






Are you serious? 

- - - Updated - - -



explod said:


> In simple words to someone who does not understand T/H, what does the above sentence mean?




It means nothing. It is completely baseless. It has no actual data to back it.


----------



## satanoperca

Trembling Hand said:


> SO PLEASE LETS SETTLE THIS. WHERE IS ALL THE PAPER GOLD TO THE VALUE OF 100 TIMES??




I finally get what the hell you have been trying to say.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

satanoperca said:


> I finally get what the hell you have been trying to say.
> 
> Cheers




I have said many times. 


World production for 2011 was at 2,700 tonnes.

So called paper gold contracts from my calculations = 800 tonnes outstanding.

Where is the 100 times the bugs keep telling us?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> SO PLEASE LETS SETTLE THIS. WHERE IS ALL THE PAPER GOLD TO THE VALUE OF 100 TIMES??
> 
> Gee even 20 times more




Perhaps doesn't show up on Comex?? Only the US Fed & allied CB's knows who owns what & who is entitled to what? It appears that Germany is not entitled to their gold?

Nick of Sharelynx.com does a rough calculation of the open interest/registered or dealer's gold. The number of owners per ounce is up to a bull market high of 46 claims for every ounce registered as *deliverable*.?


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> World production for 2011 was at 2,700 tonnes.
> 
> So called paper gold contracts from my calculations = 800 tonnes outstanding.
> 
> Where is the 100 times the bugs keep telling us?




May be they were referring to volume of paper gold traded rather than open interest. It wouldn't surprise me if that ratio is 100:1.



explod said:


> Comments to be expected when few realise that the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1 *bears little semblance to the physical shortage and the premium most are paying to obtain physical in the hand*.




Where do physical gold comes from? Gold miners digging it up from the ground predominantly.

At what price do gold miners sell their physical gold? The spot price... Unless they have entered various hedging / forward arrangements.

If there was a premium between physical and paper gold, why would a physical gold producer be willing to sell at the lower paper spot price?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> May be they were referring to volume of paper gold traded rather than open interest. It wouldn't surprise me if that ratio is 100:1.




But what is the volume of existing gold? At 2500 new tones every year, as it doesn't get used for anything and is completely recyclable, even that doesn't stack up. It trades about 3 tonne a day. Maybe 6 on a high vol day and real extreme vol 15 tonne.

Considering BHP trades about 2 to 4 % of market cap a day we are talking similar numbers (if not way way less for gold). Where are all the BHP bugs crying conspiracy? I mean you can even buy BHP paper derivatives!!


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Considering BHP trades about 2 to 4 % of market cap a day we are talking similar numbers (if not way way less for gold). Where are all the BHP bugs crying conspiracy? I mean you can even buy BHP paper derivatives!!




Except for April 15 when 400 tonnes of gold was dumped onto the market in the space of a few hours. When something similar happens to BHP the BHP bugs will be entitled to cry foul also.


----------



## CanOz

Bintang said:


> Except for April 15 when 400 tonnes of gold was dumped onto the market in the space of a few hours. When something similar happens to BHP the BHP bugs will be entitled to cry foul also.




400 tons of paper gold? Why was it "dumped", why isn't just long liquidation because stops were hit?


----------



## sinner

Bintang said:


> Except for April 15 when 400 tonnes of gold was dumped onto the market in the space of a few hours. When something similar happens to BHP the BHP bugs will be entitled to cry foul also.




This sort of post exposes the true mentality of "goldbugs", regardless of what they might shout.

If you really believed in your own investment hypothesis then "dumps" like the one you describe are a godsend, lowering the price of physical and tightening premiums, allowing your dollars to buy more ounces of physical.

But you want price to go up, and have obvious aversion to declines in price, all despite apparent claims that the price of paper is irrelevant, or incorrect.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Except for April 15 when 400 tonnes of gold was dumped onto the market in the space of a few hours. When something similar happens to BHP the BHP bugs will be entitled to cry foul also.




Well they did I guess during the GFC. Dose that make it "unfair" or a conspiracy to keep BHP price low?


----------



## sinner

What does 400 tonnes even mean? How can you dump 400 tonnes onto the market without willing bidders sitting on the other side of the trade "sucking up" 400 tonnes? 

Just a quick check on the NYSE, shows that in August 2011 there was a series of consecutive trading days on BHP where the total dollar volume was pretty much equivalent to the reported dollar volume of gold on April 15 2013.

How is that a big deal? Hint: it's not.


----------



## explod

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Official_-_Arrest_The_Gold_Manipulators.html

Derivatives control the gold market and the gold manipulators should be arrested.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Official_-_Arrest_The_Gold_Manipulators.html
> 
> Derivatives control the gold market and the gold manipulators should be arrested.




Still waiting for your data Explod.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Still waiting for your data Explod.




How can I produce data I do not understand.  What we need is a financial market that can be understood so that we can  *truly judge, and know*, that the *market is honest*.

I remember that 400 ton of gold dumping back in April too, and was done in a quiet time when few traders were operationg.  Probably to rescue shorts (and shorting is criminality in my view too) 

No I am sorry T/H, it all beats me.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> No I am sorry T/H, it all beats me.




So you have formed strong opinions on something that you actual confess to not have any understanding of. 

I guess that just about sums up the internet!


----------



## satanoperca

explod said:


> What we need is a financial market that can be understood so that we can  *truly judge, and know*, that the *market is honest*.




Just give me any market to trade/invest in that is truly honest and yippy. 

Every facet of doing business in some ways is dishonest or should I say the lines of truth are often blurred. Deception is part of everyday life, kust ask women who wear mark-up, sure they go before doing the horizontal but the next morning can tell a whole different truth.

Cheers

Gold is just another investment opportunity, nothing more and nothing less. The skill, like all investments is simply when to buy and when to sell.

Cheers


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> So you have formed strong opinions on something that you actual confess to not have any understanding of.
> 
> I guess that just about sums up the internet!




I think that is a tad out.  You purport to understand these things but seem to refuse to explain or let us ordinary souls in on it all.

I do understand that gold is a solid item that can be held in the hand and because some think it is fantastic it has value.  AND IT IS UP TO $1300 FROM $35 in 1970.  Could even add another couple of noughts in the next 10 years if the rumours of bankster manipulation proves to be correct.

And since the first bankers made paper dockets for gold held in store they look to have cheated ordinary people ever since.  But stand to be corrected??


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> I think that is a tad out.  You purport to understand these things but seem to refuse to explain or let us ordinary souls in on it all.




Well..... 

Don't know about that one. How many more times can I explain that your leverage theory is wrong. After so many attempts the only conclusion for you not being able to take in simple maths is you are not that sharp. I cannot do any more without specific questions. And I'm pretty sure you don't want to know anything that challenges you long held ideas that are based on myth.

Then how could anyone take any of your other silly ideas as holding value when we cannot get past the most basic?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Well they did I guess during the GFC. Dose that make it "unfair" or a conspiracy to keep BHP price low?




You like to berate others for not showing data so how about you show us the data for exactly when the trade in BHP shares reached a level during the GFC that would equate to 16% (= 400/2500) of its market cap in a single day (let alone a few hours). 




sinner said:


> What does 400 tonnes even mean? How can you dump 400 tonnes onto the market without willing bidders sitting on the other side of the trade "sucking up" 400 tonnes?
> 
> Just a quick check on the NYSE, shows that in August 2011 there was a series of consecutive trading days on BHP where the total dollar volume was pretty much equivalent to the reported dollar volume of gold on April 15 2013.




So how about you tell us the particular dates you are referring to?  Or perhaps you could tell us what the trading volumes on those days were as a percentage of BHP's market capital since that is the relevant comparison to make in the context of TH's BHP shares versus gold tonnes daily trade argument.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Well.....
> 
> Don't know about that one. How many more times can I explain that your leverage theory is wrong.




You have EXPLAINED nothing. You have only made assertions.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Well.....
> 
> After so many attempts the only conclusion for you not being able to take in simple maths is you are not that sharp. ?




Thanks Champ.

Last year at elementary school )at 14 years) Maths 15%, English expression 85%, high rank (smell of course) large Command of others, lettered,  (Fine art, Sociology) Councillor (and Mayor 12 months), but the best was member of Buffalo Lodge at Longreach. 

Stuff the arithmatic, this forum is to help each other.  So Commorrnn T/H


----------



## Bintang

Bintang said:


> You like to berate others for not showing data so how about you show us the data for exactly when the trade in BHP shares reached a level during the GFC that would equate to 16% (= 400/2500) of its market cap in a single day (let alone a few hours).
> 
> So how about you tell us the particular dates you are referring to?  Or perhaps you could tell us what the trading volumes on those days were as a percentage of BHP's market capital since that is the relevant comparison to make in the context of TH's BHP shares versus gold tonnes daily trade argument.




TH/Sinner: Am still waiting for your data.


----------



## skyQuake

Bintang said:


> TH/Sinner: Am still waiting for your data.




How can you compare 1 day's trading to 1 year's production?

To compare market cap vs 1 day's trading,

It should be gold's total market cap vs 1 day's trading.

Total gold in the world is 168k tonnes. (as of 2010) Divided by 400 tonnes is 0.24%

Source: wikipedia.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> You have EXPLAINED nothing. You have only made assertions.




I'm pretty sure I have. I'm also pretty sure you don't understand what I am even trying to say let alone whether its valid or not.

But that is to be expected from someone trolling with idealogical opinions.

Do you know what open interest is?


----------



## Bintang

skyQuake said:


> How can you compare 1 day's trading to 1 year's production?
> 
> To compare market cap vs 1 day's trading,
> 
> It should be gold's total market cap vs 1 day's trading.
> 
> Total gold in the world is 168k tonnes. (as of 2010) Divided by 400 tonnes is 0.24%
> 
> Source: wikipedia.




Why don't you read the original post on this subject by TH. It is his comparison not mine.



Trembling Hand said:


> I'm pretty sure I have. I'm also pretty sure you don't understand what I am even trying to say let alone whether its valid or not.
> 
> But that is to be expected from someone trolling with idealogical opinions.
> 
> Do you know what open interest is?




Yes, I know what open interest is.

Once again when you are challenged to produce data to support your assertions you are unable to do so.
Instead you resort to personal attacks such as accusing others of trolling.
What ideological opinions have I expressed which upset you so much?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> ...... I'm also pretty sure you don't understand what I am even trying to say let alone whether its valid or not.....




You are right about one thing. I don't understand what you are 'trying' to say.
I don't even understand what you have already said.
Perhaps you could try harder by
1) actually providing the kind of data which you demand from others
and/or
2) actually saying what you want to say instead of trying to say it.


----------



## skyQuake

Bintag ^


Trembling Hand said:


> skc said:
> 
> 
> 
> May be they were referring to volume of paper gold traded rather than open interest. It wouldn't surprise me if that ratio is 100:1.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But what is the volume of existing gold? At 2500 new tones every year, as it doesn't get used for anything and is completely recyclable, even that doesn't stack up. It trades about 3 tonne a day. Maybe 6 on a high vol day and real extreme vol 15 tonne.
Click to expand...


That 2500/t year was in reply to the previous discussion of paper gold traded vs physical gold. Its higher up on the thread.

As for the data on bhp? April 15th 2011 it did 50m shares. Which is rather modest considering avg vol is 20m shares. Divided by shares outstanding at the time = 2%
Gold trade = 0.24% of mkt cap as previously shown.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Yes, I know what open interest is.



So can you demonstrate how that equates to massive leverage in the gold market?


Bintang said:


> You are right about one thing. I don't understand what you are 'trying' to say.
> I don't even understand what you have already said.
> Perhaps you could try harder by
> 1) actually providing the kind of data which you demand from others
> and/or
> 2) actually saying what you want to say instead of trying to say it.




Oh dear. I'll start again... again!

Gold bugs claim that the gold price is depressed because of the use of massive leverage. Often they claim 100:1

Explod often spews out this line. I have shown that its utter BS. The data suggest that the leverage in the gold futures contract doesn't even add up to *1/3 of a years worth of production.* Considering Gold doesn't get used up like say oil or wheat but rather just about all that has ever been mined sits around in peoples safes and on their fingers. We are talking about a market that is probably the least leveraged of any market I can think of.

THAT IS MY POINT. 

Now if a gold bug would like to demonstrate how they get the 100 to 1 leverage that they always talk about other than just quoting other gold bugs who also don't give any data or calculations then that would be really good of them.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> But what is the volume of existing gold? At 2500 new tones every year, as it doesn't get used for anything and is completely recyclable, even that doesn't stack up. It trades about 3 tonne a day. Maybe 6 on a high vol day and real extreme vol 15 tonne.
> 
> Considering BHP trades about 2 to 4 % of market cap a day we are talking similar numbers (if not way way less for gold). Where are all the BHP bugs crying conspiracy? I mean you can even buy BHP paper derivatives!!






skyQuake said:


> Bintag ^
> 
> That 2500/t year was in reply to the previous discussion of paper gold traded vs physical gold. Its higher up on the thread.
> 
> As for the data on bhp? April 15th 2011 it did 50m shares. Which is rather modest considering avg vol is 20m shares. Divided by shares outstanding at the time = 2%
> Gold trade = 0.24% of mkt cap as previously shown.




I was trying to follow the comparison being made by TH. ie. gold traded in tonnes per day versus BHP shares traded in % of market cap per day.
But I don't think it helps to use either the total above ground quantity of gold in existence or the annual gold production as proxies for 'gold market cap'.

So I will try to rephrase my own question by considering just the relative changes in trading volume.
*GOLD*
TH indicates that normal trading volume for gold is 3 to 6 tonnes per day and that 15 tonne per day is 'extreme'.
*BHP Shares*
TH indicates that normal trading volume for BHP shares is 2% to 4% of market cap per day.

OK so far so good. Now on 15 April in the space of a few hours 400 tonnes of gold/paper gold was traded.
(that 's what has been reported but if it is just a myth for consumption by gullible gold bug ideologues please correct me).

I think anyone with even a small amount of objective reasoning capability would acknowledge that 400 tonnes/day is an abnormal event if 'normal' trading volumes are 3 to 6 tonnes per day. In fact it is abnormal by a factor of 66 to 133 times.

So now tell me when did a comparable event happen in respect of the trading of BHP shares? When in history did the trading volume of BHP shares exceed its 'normal' activity by 66 to 133 times in a single day, let alone a few hours?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> I think anyone with even a small amount of objective reasoning capability would acknowledge that 400 tonnes/day is an abnormal event if 'normal' trading volumes are 3 to 6 tonnes per day. In fact it is abnormal by a factor of 66 to 133 times.




It was a high volume day but considering how it cracked support going back more than 18 month and a long term trend line I don't think its abnormal volume at all. Similar to what any market looks like when it dives.

Will check the volumes during those hours to try and find this magical 400 tones tomorrow but that too looks BS.




EDIT: looks more like a weeks worth of turnover in a day. Nothing extraordinary. notable yes but not unexpected considering price move.


----------



## skyQuake

Don't see whats so special about a 3x volume day, when said day breaches a HUGE support.




700k contracts traded, each contract is 100 troy ounce (3.1 kg)
Comes to about 2200 tonnes traded. Compared to avg of about 700t/day.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> So I will try to rephrase my own question by considering just the relative changes in trading volume.
> *GOLD*
> TH indicates that normal trading volume for gold is 3 to 6 tonnes per day and that 15 tonne per day is 'extreme'.




HA! So checking my own calculations I'm off by a factor of 100!!

300 to 600 tonne or a bit higher is the avg volume as per Skyquakes post.  

sorry.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> HA! So checking my own calculations I'm off by a factor of 100!!
> 
> 300 to 600 tonne or a bit higher is the avg volume as per Skyquakes post.
> 
> sorry.




So after all this we have been arguing based on incorrect data. Reminds me of a wise old saying (though from where it comes I don't know):
"It's hard enough to make business decisions on facts without trying to make them on facts which are not facts."
So just give me the FACTS.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> So after all this we have been arguing based on incorrect data.




I was always talking about the leverage in the market not being 100:1. It is nowhere near it.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> HA! So checking my own calculations I'm off by a factor of 100!!
> 
> 300 to 600 tonne or a bit higher is the avg volume as per Skyquakes post.
> 
> sorry.




I presume this 300 to 600 tonnes per day is paper transactions. How does this compare to average physical gold deliveries?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> I was always talking about the leverage in the market not being 100:1. It is nowhere near it.




So what is the actual leverage and what data can we use to calculate it?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> I presume this 300 to 600 tonnes per day is paper transactions. How does this compare to average physical gold deliveries?




The amount of physical gold deliveries of those contracts is tiny. I think about 2%. Which is what is backed up by the rolling open interest. Most of the volumes is short term speculation as it is in most futures contracts. Gold futures trades the same as all other futures, whether they are ASX200 contracts, Bonds or wheat. For some reason Gold is deemed to be massively manipulated.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> So what is the actual leverage and what data can we use to calculate it?




That would only be at best a guestimate. A huge load of BS by the bugs is quoting minimum CME margin as "proof" at how the shorts control the price of gold. But if anyone has ever traded long term futs minimum margin is completely and utterly irrelevant to any possible leverage you CAN actually trade at. And on the flip side would work for the longs..... especially in an up trend.

Thats one side of it.

The other being the amount of actual contracts open at the end of each day is just tiny compared to the amount of gold mined each year.


----------



## sinner

Bintang, can you please clarify for us whether you really believe the "market cap of gold" is annual production multiplied by spot price, rather than total above ground gold multiplied by spot price?


----------



## Bintang

sinner said:


> Bintang, can you please clarify for us whether you really believe the "market cap of gold" is annual production multiplied by spot price, rather than total above ground gold multiplied by spot price?




I said the following:
" I don't think it helps to use either the total above ground quantity of gold in existence or the annual gold production as proxies for 'gold market cap'."

Is that not clear?


----------



## sinner

Bintang said:


> I said the following:
> " I don't think it helps to use either the total above ground quantity of gold in existence or the annual gold production as proxies for 'gold market cap'."
> 
> Is that not clear?




Not really, because you also said this



> how about you show us the data for exactly when the trade in BHP shares reached a level during the GFC that would equate to 16% (= 400/2500) of its market cap in a single day (let alone a few hours).




Implying the market cap of gold is annual gold production * spot price...where you get that it supposedly equates to 16% of "gold market cap" in a single day (let alone a few hours).


----------



## Bintang

sinner said:


> Not really, because you also said this
> 
> Implying the market cap of gold is annual gold production * spot price...where you get that it supposedly equates to 16% of "gold market cap" in a single day (let alone a few hours).




I don't think this discussion point is serving any useful purpose but I will try to explain for the last and one more time.

I used the figure of 2500 simply because I was trying to make sense of the Gold vs BHP comparison started by TH in the following post:


Trembling Hand said:


> But what is the volume of existing gold? At 2500 new tones every year, as it doesn't get used for anything and is completely recyclable, even that doesn't stack up. It trades about 3 tonne a day. Maybe 6 on a high vol day and real extreme vol 15 tonne.
> 
> Considering BHP trades about 2 to 4 % of market cap a day we are talking similar numbers (if not way way less for gold). Where are all the BHP bugs crying conspiracy? I mean you can even buy BHP paper derivatives!!




*NOTE:* "BHP trades about 2 to 4 % of market cap a day we are talking similar numbers"

The post appears to be comparing a "2 to 4% of BHP market cap per day"  with 3 to 6 tonne per day of Gold trades relative to 2500 new tonnes Gold per year.

In attempting to understand what TH is saying in the above post I tried to extend the logic and for comparison with TH's 15 tonnes per day which calls 'extreme' I thought it relevant to mention the 400 tonnes per day reported widely as having been traded in the space of a few hours on 15 April.

However, since we now know that TH got his daily trade numbers wrong buy a factor of 100 any continuance of this discussion point is surely a bit futile.


----------



## sinner

Bintang said:


> I used the figure of 2500 simply because I was trying to make sense of the Gold vs BHP comparison started by TH in the following post:




I find it strange how you can quote THs post while missing him pointing out over and over again the obvious: due to the fact that gold isn't consumed, the total supply of gold is not simply annual gold production, but rather total above ground gold. 

Therefore invalidating your original claim that BHP traders would be supposedly crying manipulation if subjected to equivalent volume as gold was exposed to April 15, as this sort of trading actually has gone on already in names like BHP all the time. Everyone here has shown you by various measures that the amount of gold, taking your claim of 400 tonnes at face value without verification, is not abnormal by any stretch, even compared to much smaller markets like the market cap of a single equity.


----------



## Bintang

sinner said:


> ..... Everyone here has shown you by various measures that the amount of gold, taking your claim of 400 tonnes at face value without verification, is not abnormal by any stretch, even compared to much smaller markets like the market cap of a single equity.




Everyone? Who is everyone? You and TH?
400 tonnes is not 'my claim'. It is widely reported but it is not my claim.
400 tonnes in one day might not be abnormal but change the time-scale to the order of minutes and maybe it is - especially in the face of  Comex position limits that are supposed to be in place.

But for those savvy enough to see the opportunity, at the end of the day it is academic whether the price action on 15 April was 'natural' or contrived. Price smash = opportunity to buy physical gold at bargain basement prices. 
If it was natural price action - please can we have some more. 
If it was manipulation - please can we have some more.
Just ask all those gold hoarding chinese and other Asian ideological gold bugs who obviously have so much fiat money they don't know what to do with that they have decided to just throw it away by buying useless yellow metal.
Silly people.


----------



## skyQuake

Bintang said:


> *Price smash = opportunity to buy physical gold at bargain basement prices. *
> If it was natural price action - please can we have some more.
> If it was manipulation - please can we have some more.
> Just ask all those gold hoarding chinese and other Asian ideological gold bugs who obviously have so much fiat money they don't know what to do with that they have decided to just *throw it away by buying useless yellow metal.*
> Silly people.




Well those that bought "at bargain basement prices" when it was getting smashed were sure throwing it away!


----------



## Bintang

skyQuake said:


> Well those that bought "at bargain basement prices" when it was getting smashed were sure throwing it away!




Yep. They are all just silly bug[gar]s.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> 400 tonnes is not 'my claim'. It is widely reported but it is not my claim.
> 400 tonnes in one day might not be abnormal but change the time-scale to the order of minutes and maybe it is - especially in the face of  Comex position limits that are supposed to be in place.




It wasn't one evil manipulator doing all the selling. It was a mayor changing of trend right at that very point. Every Tom, Dick and Harry Hedgefund had that moment as a breaking of the up trend.

That was the cause of 3 times average volume. 

But typical of Xerohedge and gold bugs that  slice and dice half the info and colour it "manipulation". That is why gold has such BS attached to it. Those that love it so much and hate the paper equivalent actually know so little about it and then never even bother to check the legitimacy of the "stories" they base their ideas on.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> It wasn't one evil manipulator doing all the selling. It was a mayor changing of trend right at that very point. Every Tom, Dick and Harry Hedgefund had that moment as a breaking of the up trend.
> 
> That was the cause of 3 times average volume.
> 
> But typical of Xerohedge and gold bugs that  slice and dice half the info and colour it "manipulation". That is why gold has such BS attached to it. Those that love it so much and hate the paper equivalent actually know so little about it and then never even bother to check the legitimacy of the "stories" they base their ideas on.




Especially the chinese gold bugs. They obviously know nothing about gold. Like all silly bug[gar]s they never check anything unlike the clever and sophisticated fiat bugs who know everything. Gold Bug on the left. Fiat bug on the right. Can you see any difference in quality?


----------



## Trembling Hand

As usual - a discussion about gold with goldies just end up with nonsense. 

So where are we again? How come that price is going down?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> As usual - a discussion about gold with goldies just end up with nonsense.
> 
> So where are we again? How come that price is going down?




Who knows? Why don't you give us your opinion? Perhaps you are wiser and more learned than your fiat bug mate Bernankius Caesar: _"Nobody really understands gold prices and I don't pretend to understand them either,"_


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Perhaps you are wiser and more learned than your fiat bug mate Bernankius Caesar




Nonsense then Straw man..... here we go - just the normal gold discussion.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Nonsense then Straw man..... here we go - just the normal gold discussion.




Ha ha.  That's very funny. We've had 'gold bug', 'ideological gold bug', 'goldies' and now we have 'Straw man'.
You spew out labels almost as fast as Bernankius spews out dollar bills.
Is labeling someone the best you can do? Do you think labeling is conducive to a normal discussion or an abnormal discussion?


----------



## CanOz

Back to the gold price lads...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Ha ha.  That's very funny. We've had 'gold bug', 'ideological gold bug', 'goldies' and now we have 'Straw man'.
> You spew out labels almost as fast as Bernankius spews out dollar bills.
> Is labeling someone the best you can do? Do you think labeling is conducive to a normal discussion or an abnormal discussion?




Was I calling you any of those? 

I called you a goldie, as someone who buys gold and never sells thats by your own admission.

Straw man was most certainly what you were trying to achieve by linking me with Bernanke.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Was I calling you any of those?
> 
> I called you a goldie, as someone who buys gold and never sells thats by your own admission.
> 
> Straw man was most certainly what you were trying to achieve by linking me with Bernanke.




You have used the terms frequently so they must be meant for someone.
I didn't know that was the definition of 'goldie' but I much prefer gold bug.
Bernanke confessed to not understanding gold prices. Are you saying that you do understand gold prices in which case you should be able to answer your own question for us, "How come that price is going down".



CanOz said:


> Back to the gold price lads...




I'm trying CanOz


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Back to the gold price lads...




And on the move up well this week.  Looking for a close above US$1340 for a first break then through $1400 and we are off to the races.  In my view.

And do not worry CanOz, ole T/H, or is that Footsie or the derivative thereto Puutsie, just wants some of us on our toes.  But we simply want to hold our gold and be on holidays all the time. 

I found day trading to be too stressful.  Though looking at the NST chart today makes me wish a bit.


----------



## JLM Financial

Gold has always been seen as a safe-haven during bad economic times. The recovering US, European and UK economy could have caused gold to be abandoned as a safe-haven. Latest CFTC report showed that shorting of gold futures increased by 24.24% and long on gold futures decreased by 3.22%.

Overall, it seems like gold is being quite bearish most likely due to the possibility of tapering in the US occurring by December, if not earlier. There is a higher chance of tapering in September with the recent strong economic data released in the US.

I think it would be a good idea considering December puts so you can rule out any short-term fluctuations.


----------



## Bintang

JLM Financial said:


> Gold has always been seen as a safe-haven during bad economic times. The recovering US, European and UK economy could have caused gold to be abandoned as a safe-haven. Latest CFTC report showed that shorting of gold futures increased by 24.24% and long on gold futures decreased by 3.22%.
> 
> Overall, it seems like gold is being quite bearish most likely due to the possibility of tapering in the US occurring by December, if not earlier. There is a higher chance of tapering in September with the recent strong economic data released in the US.
> 
> I think it would be a good idea considering December puts so you can rule out any short-term fluctuations.




This is the current standard MSM explanation but is a completely West-centric view of the gold market. Notice how there is zero discussion of what is happening in the physical gold market due to Chinese demand. This has so far put a floor under the gold price correction and will continue to do so. Tapering talk is a red herring.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

skyQuake said:


> Well those that bought "at bargain basement prices" when it was getting smashed were sure throwing it away!




If you had bought at either of the 2 lows - $AU1300 - you'd be $AU160/oz ahead.

I think this chart has been posted before, but it's still as relevant to the gold bull case. IOU nothing's backed by trust and sweet FA else........a multi-generational structural decline in the political, financial & moral systems of humans?




As for 'The Taper', not sure why it's perceived as a game changer for gold as half of golds rise since 2000 happened before QE was even a twinkle in Bernankes' testicles? More to the point, it's not actually printing money that finds it's way into the system - yet. Although there are signs that QE participants are now velocitising more of it into the real economy? We may yet get hyper inflation?

Higher low at least, but resistance ahead. Short JPM?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> As for 'The Taper', not sure why it's perceived as a game changer for gold as half of golds rise since 2000 happened before QE was even a twinkle in Bernankes' testicles?




Is that really correct? QE was a _predicted out come_ of the debt and mess that the world was getting into way back at the dot.com crash and beyond. The gold bugs got that right as well as the rise in gold from then but what was meant to happen was the collapse of the system and hyperinflation, runs on US banks and complete chaos.

This is where the gold has taken a turn south. We have had massive QE and no sigh yet of inflation (in fact the danger is the other way) and a slight pick up in activity in the US. That will mean nothing to the gold bugs because they will never change. They will go to the grave convinced gold at $10,000 is just coming next year. What has changed is those that move real money have gone cold on that idea, at least for now.

Next trade!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Is that really correct? QE was a _predicted out come_ of the debt and mess that the world was getting into way back at the dot.com crash and beyond. The gold bugs got that right as well as the rise in gold from then but what was meant to happen was the collapse of the system and hyperinflation, runs on US banks and complete chaos.
> 
> This is where the gold has taken a turn south. We have had massive QE and no sigh yet of inflation (in fact the danger is the other way) and a slight pick up in activity in the US. That will mean nothing to the gold bugs because they will never change. They will go to the grave convinced gold at $10,000 is just coming next year. What has changed is those that move real money have gone cold on that idea, at least for now.
> 
> Next trade!




Paper Gold derivatives have been pricing gold up to this point. Paper Gold derivatives are controlled by the bullion banks. Until that changes the POrealG is at their mercy/whim? Waiting for a disconnect?

There is inflation in the system now - lot's of data prints the last few weeks have had outsized gains, property bubbles re-ignited, again, but it's all in price inflation not wages etc almost stagflationary. They are sowing the irrational exuberance seeds yet again, we only have to be patient as the next leg down is gonna be a doozy......but, no more ammo......

I think the real money is already long gold?

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/cornering-gold-market-12374


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think the real money is already long gold?




Who would that be?



> Billionaire John Paulson, the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, reduced his holdings by 53 percent as the metal plunged into a bear market. George Soros sold his entire position.
> Paulson & Co. reduced its stake to 10.2 million shares in the three months ended June 30 from 21.8 million at the end of the first quarter, and Soros Fund Management LLC sold its 530,900 shares, Securities and Exchange Commission filings showed today. The SPDR fund is the world’s largest exchange-traded product backed by gold.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Who would that be?
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html




The Chinese.


----------



## skyQuake

Bintang said:


> The Chinese.




Source?

From what I've heard on the desks they haven't really been doing out of the ordinary


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> The Chinese.




Could you add any details?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Could you add any details?




Just Google, 'Chinese gold demand'. You will find plenty of details.


----------



## skyQuake

Bintang said:


> Just Google, 'Chinese gold demand'. You will find plenty of details.




Right. That story has been floating around for YEARS. 
I might as well google WW3 gold demand or Copper industrial use demand or US corn demand.


----------



## Bintang

skyQuake said:


> Right. That story has been floating around for YEARS.
> I might as well google WW3 gold demand or Copper industrial use demand or US corn demand.




Suit yourself.


----------



## CanOz

Gold COT...


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> What has changed is those that move real money have gone cold on that idea, at least for now.
> Next trade!




Great point!



Bintang said:


> The Chinese.




Great point!

Very interesting juncture.  We now have news that Paulson has exited half his massives stake.




http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/14/paulson-soros-dump-gold/

If there is tapering, regardless of how much influence it has on inflation you should expect gold to be slammed.

As far as I can see the QEs have just funded confidence and should be ended.
This should happen now.  
However, with the troubles in Egypt and the price of oil spiking again, it's all getting a bit murky again.  Maybe they will wait till November.


----------



## Bintang

notting said:


> Very interesting juncture.  We now have news that Paulson has exited half his massives stake.
> 
> If there is tapering, regardless of how much influence it has on inflation you should expect gold to be slammed.




Paulson and Soros exited paper gold. 
Chinese are buying the physical stuff.

Gold Demand Trends Q2 2013 - Spotlight on China - worldgoldcouncil http://www.gold.org/video/play/gold_demand_trends_q2_2013_china/


----------



## MARKETWINNER

It is time to analyze new development in the gold market.  

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...take-53-percent-as-soros-sells-entire-holding

Gold Bull Paulson Cuts SPDR Stake by Half in Bear Market

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100963985

Paulson & Co more than halves gold ETF stake in Q2

http://en.ammonnews.net/article.aspx?articleno=22762#.UgyRSDmN3IU

India hikes gold duties again to plug trade gap

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites


----------



## albaby

MARKETWINNER said:


> It is time to analyze new development in the gold market.
> 
> http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...take-53-percent-as-soros-sells-entire-holding
> 
> Gold Bull Paulson Cuts SPDR Stake by Half in Bear Market
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/100963985
> 
> Paulson & Co more than halves gold ETF stake in Q2
> 
> http://en.ammonnews.net/article.aspx?articleno=22762#.UgyRSDmN3IU
> 
> India hikes gold duties again to plug trade gap
> 
> My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites



What do you trade?Al


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Who would that be?




Trading was 21 percent above the average in the past 100 days for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The metal has climbed 15 percent from a 34-month low of $1,179.40 on June 28.


It's becoming obvious who's long in a big way - I've already given you a clue. 

"The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only."

They are selling/sold SPDR & ETF - boo hoo & who gives a toss. Perhaps Paulson etc have finally realised that paper gold is dead and as worthless as $USD IOU's?

The heat is on.......the crowded gold short trade & repercussions from interest rate swaps blowing up some big names.......the old geopolitical risk......who needs QE?

and a nice $50 pop!! BTFD!




"The information in this post is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, I disclaim all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This post is produced for information purposes only."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh god!  ZeroHedge has been completely discredited a loooong time ago.
> 
> It is the place for nut bag conspiracy fools and people who are bitter at their own losses.
> 
> try again.




Sometimes it's useful? The gold seasons - seasonally strong period starts now.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Sometimes it's useful? The gold seasons - seasonally strong period starts now.....
> 
> View attachment 53863




No, utterly useless. Just back fitted rubbish for their audience.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> No, utterly useless. Just back fitted rubbish for their audience.




So from that I take it we are not in a strong period now?

Or the data is rubbish to you just because they have an interest in the game?

And of course that is why everything I say is rubbish too.

Da mit, brought a heap of coins last month at $8.50 each and wanted more next week but now they are $9.90 as of this morning.  Shoulda got the hint from me ole Pal and stayed right out of it.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Could you add any details?




Ask and you shall receive. It's still not too late TH - come over to our team  and lose your gold angst....

The latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report, which covers the period April-June 2013, highlights how recent falls in the gold price have generated *significant increases in demand*, most notably from consumers in China and India - by far the biggest markets for gold - compared with the same time last year.

Globally, jewellery demand was up 37% in Q2 2013 to 576 tonnes (t) from 421t in the same quarter last year, reaching its highest level since Q3 2008. In China, demand was up *54%* compared to a year ago; while in India demand increased by 51%. There were also significant increases in demand for gold jewellery in other parts of the world: the Middle East region was up by 33%, and in Turkey demand grew by 38%.

Bar and coin investment grew by 78% globally compared to the same quarter last year, topping 500t in a quarter for the first time.  In China, demand for gold bars and coins surged *157%* compared with the same quarter last year, while in India it jumped 116% to a record 122t. Taking jewellery demand and bar and coin investment together, global consumer demand totalled 1,083t in the quarter, 53% higher than a year ago.

For the tenth consecutive quarter, *central banks were net buyers of gold*, purchasing 71t, which reinforces the trend that began in Q1 2011.  

http://www.gold.org/media/press_releases/archive/2013/08/gdt_q2_2013_pr/

Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment at the World Gold Council commented: “The second quarter continued the trend that we saw in the first, of a rebalancing in the market, as gold coming onto the market from ETF sales met with a wave of demand for bars and coins, as well as jewellery. This surge in bar and coin investment was a common theme in key markets around the world, and has been particularly prominent in the world’s biggest gold markets, India and China.  *This shift from West to East* has been further reinforced by recent data from the LBMA showing that in June the volume of gold transferred between accounts held by bullion clearers hit a second consecutive 12-year high, buoyed by strong Asian physical demand.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> So from that I take it we are not in a strong period now?




Oh as you & Unc pointed out a little while ago we have made a bottom and now a higher low 8 days ago.

BUT as you keep telling everyone paper gold isn't the _real _price. So now are you saying it is only the real price when it rises? : that wouldn't surprise me at all.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Well I do hate being the resident fact checker on the gold thread but since the gold experts seem to have so much trouble with confirmation bias seems I will have to get my red marker out again. 



Uncle Festivus said:


> Trading was 21 percent above the average in the past 100 days for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The metal has climbed 15 percent from a 34-month low of $1,179.40 on June 28.
> 
> 
> It's becoming obvious who's long in a big way - I've already given you a clue.






Here is the chart with the contract rollover volume stripped out from the expiring. (as we all know rollover is not trading)




Next


----------



## Gundini

explod said:


> So from that I take it we are not in a strong period now?




I feel more comfortable now going into a traditionally strong period. 

It would be nice to think the bottom for both Gold and Silver is in, but we all know much water needs to travel under the bridge before we can do the happy dance.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> No, utterly useless. Just back fitted rubbish for their audience.






Trembling Hand said:


> Here is the chart with the contract rollover volume stripped out from the expiring. (as we all know rollover is not trading)
> Next




Just more utterly useless cryptic crap, which means nothing. Posted for consumption by 'we', whoever 'we' is.


----------



## CanOz

Bintang said:


> Just more utterly useless cryptic crap, which means nothing. Posted for consumption by 'we', whoever 'we' is.




Cryptic Crap? 

If you don't understand what he's saying just ask. If he posted a chart with and without the volume from the contract rollover would it be clearer?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Who would that be?
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html






Uncle Festivus said:


> Trading was 21 percent above the average in the past 100 days for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The metal has climbed 15 percent from a 34-month low of $1,179.40 on June 28.
> 
> 
> (From above link)






Trembling Hand said:


> Well I do hate being the resident fact checker on the gold thread but since the gold experts seem to have so much trouble with confirmation bias seems I will have to get my red marker out again.
> 
> Next




Oh dear! If you are going to add a linked story to a post then you should read all of it? My quote was from your link story - so looks like you gave yourself an F  

No gold star for you, just a happy face stamp :star:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Oh dear! If you are going to add a linked story to a post then you should read all of it? My quote was from your link story - so looks like you gave yourself an F
> 
> No gold star for you, just a happy face stamp :star:




I posted the story due to who was selling. You tried to make something of the volume which I knew was nonsense.


----------



## Bintang

CanOz said:


> Cryptic Crap?
> If you don't understand what he's saying just ask.



I've tried that approach before.



CanOz said:


> Cryptic Crap?
> If he posted a chart with and without the volume from the contract rollover would it be clearer?



Maybe, if he also included an explanation of the chart.



Trembling Hand said:


> No, utterly useless. Just back fitted rubbish for their audience.




And perhaps CanOz, for the sake of even-handedness you could advise T/H on how to respond more politely to the charts posted by others which he does not like or understand.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Just more utterly useless cryptic crap, which means nothing. Posted for consumption by 'we', whoever 'we' is.




Oh I have no doubt you find it useless.

:bunny:


----------



## CanOz

Well given that he's actually trying to make a living while responding to this threads myths and legends i reckon he's done well to keep his patience....

TH, please respond politely in clear, polite English. 

Hows that?


----------



## tinhat

So then, the price of gold. Which way do you reckon it's heading? Is the cost of production a likely floor?


----------



## Bintang

CanOz said:


> Well given that he's actually trying to make a living while responding to this threads myths and legends i reckon he's done well to keep his patience....
> 
> TH, please respond politely in clear, polite English.
> 
> Hows that?




Excellent CanOz. Good to know that the umpire is fair and objective.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I posted the story due to who was selling. You tried to make something of the volume which I knew was nonsense.




Not really, just quoting the whole paragraph, and assuming Bloomberg was correct. You'd think they would get their data from a reputable source? :crap: Ill have to send my Bloomberg terminal back if they don't get their act together!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not really, just quoting the whole paragraph, and assuming Bloomberg was correct. You'd think they would get their data from a reputable source? :crap:




Not the first time a fin Journo wrote something where they butchered the data.


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Hows that?




Quietly from my dog house, ~ 'I just need TH to type a little more slowly."



Trembling Hand said:


> Well I do hate being the resident fact checker on the gold thread but since the gold experts seem to have so much trouble with confirmation bias seems I will have to get my red marker out again.




Well, I for one am most grateful for your sobriety and efforts.

Thank you.


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Well given that he's actually trying to make a living
> Hows that?




And how do we really know that?

.......................................................................

And the talk around town (which is prolly b/s on the t/h stick) is that the big boys who were short have now gone long which will drive the price of gold up strongly for some time, till they have made 20 or 30% that way and then go short again to make it go down again for the next 20 or 30%.   How they really do that by swapping physical with money on such a large scale in such short time periods beats me, and if one ponders the procedure, how such a way of trading can be ethical, all persopns being equal, beats me.

Yes I know t/h, that's how all markets work.  *But in my view it is wrong*.

Oh, I also remember, "...some people are more equal than others..."  

But then of course that author was a commo.


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> And how do we really know that?
> 
> .......................................................................
> 
> And the talk around town (which is prolly b/s on the t/h stick) is that the big boys who were short have now gone long which will drive the price of gold up strongly for some time




Learn to read the COT report, its public and i chart the data every week, then post the chart here for all to see....

Mind you it is only paper gold...but that what the guys were shorting...err covering actually...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Learn to read the COT report,




Stop talking cryptic baloney. All ya need to know is gold will be at $10,000 next year. :cuckoo:


----------



## Bintang

CanOz said:


> Well given that he's actually trying to make a living while responding to this threads myths and legends i reckon he's done well to keep his patience....






explod said:


> And how do we really know that?




We don't. But if I was in his position I wouldn't waste any time posting rejoinders to ideologues like me whose opinions are not only wrong but unchangeable. I would then have more opportunity to actually 'make' a living instead of just 'trying to make' a living.
.................................................. .....................



explod said:


> Oh I also remember, "...some people are more equal than others..."
> But then of course that author was a commo.




I think the author actually wrote , "... some animals are more equal than others...."

There are no animals on this forum.
.................................................................................................................

Back to the gold price. I see the paper price has jumped quite a bit in the last 24 hours - currently US$1364. In oz dollars that's AUD 1488 which is only about 4% below its price in March just before the natural-price-action-induced nose-dive in April. But don't take any notice. The current price increase is only manipulation. It doesn't have anything to do with demand for physical gold.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> natural-price-action-




Another term you have no understanding of so just choosing to be aggressive?


----------



## Bintang

CanOz said:


> Cryptic Crap?
> 
> If you don't understand what he's saying just ask.






Trembling Hand said:


> Another term you have no understanding of so just choosing to be aggressive?




TH could you please explain the true meaning of 'natural-price-action' in polite english?


----------



## havaiana

explod said:


> And the talk around town (which is prolly b/s on the t/h stick) is that the big boys who were short have now gone long which will drive the price of gold up strongly for some time, till they have made 20 or 30% that way and then go short again to make it go down again for the next 20 or 30%.   How they really do that by swapping physical with money on such a large scale in such short time periods beats me, and if one ponders the procedure, how such a way of trading can be ethical, all persopns being equal, beats me.




Assuming this is true, I've never understood why people take such offence at this. They are filling the orders of the real supply above the market and filling the orders of the real demand under the market. They are also taking risk when they do it and being paid for it accordingly. Isn't this pretty much traders jobs as liquidity providers? Markets exist because the real supply and demand want the liquidity providers to be there, they are prepared to pay for their service.

Also if you know 'they' are going to move it up 20% down 20% etc, why not just trade it?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Stop talking cryptic baloney. All ya need to know is gold will be at $10,000 next year. :cuckoo:



Yes. Thanks for the confirmation. But what will the paper price of gold be next year?


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Mind you it is only paper gold...but that what the guys were shorting...err covering actually...




Thank you, well said.

Paper gold is my exhibit Your Worship.  Rest my case.

Only physical for the honest person.


----------



## G Gekko

Is it possible to turn this discussion back to the actual topic? ie - the Gold Price? I've been monitoring this thread for the last month or two and it's filled with junk. Having little to no experience in technical analysis, I look forward to hearing some people's views with how the market is going... not which person is more bigoted than the other.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=7e864abe-b6ce-409a-b1f8-cf2a23812573

1,427... is that what we're aiming for next?


----------



## CanOz

G Gekko said:


> Is it possible to turn this discussion back to the actual topic? ie - the Gold Price? I've been monitoring this thread for the last month or two and it's filled with junk. Having little to no experience in technical analysis, I look forward to hearing some people's views with how the market is going... not which person is more bigoted than the other.
> 
> http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=7e864abe-b6ce-409a-b1f8-cf2a23812573
> 
> 1,427... is that what we're aiming for next?




I understand your point Gorden, however GOLD is one of the worlds most hotly debated subjects and there are those that believe the market is manipulated and those that believe its not and price is king. Baring that in mind its understandable that this thread will be filled with opinions of the price, as well as of those holding the opinions. We try and keep the insults to a minimum but this is a forum, discussion and opinions are something that we need to live with, encourage even.

Actually i think there are quite a few that enjoy the debate, as long as it stays friendly. I know i do


----------



## burglar

CanOz said:


> ... Actually i think there are quite a few that enjoy the debate, as long as it stays friendly. I know i do




+1 Dam right CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh I have no doubt you find it useless.
> 
> :bunny:




beautiful


----------



## Trembling Hand

Surprised the Gold bugs haven't put this one up,

AUD gold.




thanks to the manipulators hey?? (that is the RBA of course. )


----------



## Joules MM1

paper taper rock scissors bars



			
				John Hathaway said:
			
		

> "There's a big short squeeze taking place," he said, adding that paper claims on gold – from futures, derivatives and exchange-traded funds – "are demanding settlement in terms of physical gold."



video:
Gold &lsquo;ridiculously oversold&rsquo;: Fund manager



			
				John Hathaway said:
			
		

> "....that people are losing confidence in the traditional intermediaries between the paper and physical markets, and you can see that with the dramatic drawdown in registered Comex warehouse stocks"




:band


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Surprised the Gold bugs haven't put this one up,
> 
> AUD gold.
> 
> View attachment 53887
> 
> 
> thanks to the manipulators hey?? (that is the RBA of course. )




That's probably because for a gold bug the only points of interest on the charts are 'Turd bottoms'. Thanks to your previous posts we already understand that in between the 'Turd bottoms' any down-trend is natural-price-action and any up-trend is manipulation.
All very simple. Nothing new here.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> natural-price-action...
> 
> Nothing new here.




No it would seem so. It wouldn't matter what I said - it got your back up the day I said that fall was stop related, clearly you are looking for someone to pay for something??  I doubt you will ever consider any discussion about it.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> No it would seem so. It wouldn't matter what I said - it got your back up the day I said that fall was stop related, clearly you are looking for someone to pay for something??  I doubt you will ever consider any discussion about it.




You are welcome to think what ever you like TH. But try engaging generally in an objective and polite discussion with other members of this forum and you will discover that your doubts are just delusion.


----------



## skyQuake

Bintang said:


> You are welcome to think what ever you like TH. But try engaging generally in an objective and polite discussion with other members of this forum and you will discover that your doubts are just delusion.




Care to enlighten us on why those doubts are delusional?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Surprised the Gold bugs haven't put this one up,
> 
> AUD gold.
> 
> thanks to the manipulators hey?? (that is the RBA of course. )




Well the RBA have a lot to answer for, going down the same ZIRP path of currency (un?)competitiveness while making all the savers pay for all the spenders. As for the $US/$AU, I think there is still plenty of downside to go and consequently higher $AU gold prices, even as the $USD becomes more unloved by their previous supporters.

Please will you keep buying our IOU nothing's...............



> (Reuters) - China and Japan led an exodus from U.S. Treasuries in June after the first signals the U.S. central bank was preparing to wind back its stimulus, with data showing they accounted for almost all of a record $40.8 billion of net foreign selling of Treasuries.
> 
> The sales were part of $66.9 billion of net sales by foreigners of long-term U.S. securities in June, a fifth straight month of outflows and the largest since August 2007, U.S. Treasury Department data showed on Thursday.




http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/16/us-usa-economy-capital-idUSBRE97F02T20130816

It's all becoming clearer now, unless Routers and Macquarie (& Bloomberg) have their data wrong as well?



> (Reuters) - Britain's gold exports to Switzerland surged in the first half of this year, Australian bank Macquarie said on Monday, suggesting bullion being sold out of exchange-traded funds may be heading for Swiss refineries before being sold on in Asia.
> 
> The UK exported 240 tonnes of gold to Switzerland in May alone, while its exports over the first half of this year totalled 797 tonnes, Macquarie said in a note.
> 
> In contrast, Britain exported just 92 tonnes of bullion to Switzerland in the whole of last year, it said.




http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/19/uk-gold-uk-exports-macquarie-idUKBRE97I0PQ20130819

The liquidity squeeze on the bullion banks continues for now......will it turn into a price squeeze?

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&title=gold_forwards&show=2013

"The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only."


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's all becoming clearer now, unless Routers and Macquarie (& Bloomberg) have their data wrong as well?




No I think they are right. Lots of liquidation in our bonds too.

Also think AUD gold looks pretty sweet.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I was always talking about the leverage in the market not being 100:1. It is nowhere near it.




Would you believe 92 then? Well, sort of?

The Reserve Bank of India ‘Working Group to Study the Issues Related to Gold and Gold Loans by NBFCs in India’



> Interestingly, in the Financial Markets, the traded amount of ‘paper linked to gold’ exceeds by far the actual supply of physical gold: the volume on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) OTC market and the major Futures and Options Exchanges was over 92 times that of the underlying Physical Market




http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationDraftReports.aspx?ID=694

So I guess people just have to know the difference between traded 'paper' volume and what actually stands for good delivery? Whatever, there are real signs of 'stress' in the physical trying to be 'balanced' from the paper market hence the nice little $20 to $30 pops in the POG....oh to be a fly on the wall at the LBMA......and JPM.....

Why is it going to take 6 years for Germany to get their gold back?

The next leg higher (both nominally & inflation adjusted) for gold via deep money setting up before the QE distorted credit & repo markets get the wobbles?

Leverage from equities this time?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Would you believe 92 then? Well, sort of?




Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes *honestly understanding* the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.


----------



## Porper

Trembling Hand said:


> Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes *honestly understanding* the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.




I think you are wasting your time T.H. 

You will never convince the conspiracy brigade of anything other than what they believe to be true. It's akin to being in a cult... totally brainwashed. They'll be projecting dates for the end of the world next. But, it's an open forum so they are entitled to their beliefs, as funny as they are to most.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes *honestly understanding* the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.




Maybe, but in real effect the paper does not reflect true product.

A bank recieving a deposit can lend out 900% of it within minutes of reciept.   Yes I know, its the way it is but this continued exapansionism is not sustainable and we are hitting the wall in our own time.

In my very *humble* opinion, as usual.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Maybe, but in real effect the paper does not reflect true product.
> 
> A bank recieving a deposit can lend out 900% of it within minutes of reciept.   Yes I know, its the way it is but this continued exapansionism is not sustainable and we are hitting the wall in our own time.




This is nonsensical. Has nothing to do with the leverage of gold or PMs. Its a view that you don't like modern finance but has little to do with the incorrect assertion of gold leverage.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> This is nonsensical. Has nothing to do with the leverage of gold or PMs. Its a view that you don't like modern finance but has little to do with the incorrect assertion of gold leverage.




So paper gold and physical gold are the same?

And/or are equal in value.   

If not, how about coming down off your high throne and giving a straight forward explanation for dummies.

One does get the impression of course T/H, that you do not really want us to know.

On topic:  Gold is going up at the moment, confirming a good long term investment for the steady bug.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> So paper gold and physical gold are the same?
> 
> And/or are equal in value.
> 
> If not, how about coming down off your high throne and giving a straight forward explanation for dummies.
> 
> One does get the impression of course T/H, that you do not really want us to know.




What?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes *honestly understanding* the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.




"These figures" were from The Reserve Bank of India. The futures market, as you repeatedly assure us, does not lend itself to being 'unbalanced' so they are obviously not talking about it then. Where the data is showing up 'irregularities' is in the unallocated and yes, in the ETF's markets. 

I also added this - "So I guess people just have to know the difference between traded 'paper' volume and what actually stands for good delivery?" I guess this is where some are getting confused about the 'leverage' word? 

There is a case that physical gold has been bought  sight unseen and with only the promise of it's existence in a vault somewhere. What's happening is that this paper gold IOU is turning out to be worthless as the gold has been over-allocated. The exact figure no body knows (except perhaps the Fed & JPM & the other insiders) but it does show up in liquidity data such as GOFO etc. That's how I interpret it all.

So here's some questions for you - 

Why will it take Germany 6 years to get their gold back from the US??

Why has the official amount of gold in the US Feds vaults not changed materially since March 2006??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> So here's some questions for you -
> 
> Why will it take Germany 6 years to get their gold back from the US??
> 
> Why has the official amount of gold in the US Feds vaults not changed materially since March 2006??




No idea! Sounds like the mother of all squeezes is just a month away.......... again! :

First of all with all gold stories I would want to see the actual source. How close have you got to the info outside of zerohedge?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> No idea! Sounds like the mother of all squeezes is just a month away.......... again! :
> 
> First of all with all gold stories I would want to see the actual source. How close have you got to the info outside of zerohedge?




It's a liquidity squeeze alright - let's see how long they can defend $1400??

Nothing from ZH. The official gold holdings can be found here - 

http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html



> The Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold (Gold Report):
> 
> Reflects gold bullion and gold coins owned by the federal government
> Summarizes the fine troy ounces and the book value of gold held by various facilities
> Identifies the value of gold coins and bullion on display at Federal Reserve banks; coins and *bullion in reserve at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York*; and gold held by U.S. Mint facilities




Like I said, the total hasn't changed materially since 2006 - 8000t -  so how much do they have, if any at all?

As for Germany, it's a well known fact - 



> The Bundesbank will repatriate 674 metric tons of gold from vaults in Paris and New York by 2020 to restore public confidence in the safety of Germany’s reserves.
> 
> The phased relocation of the gold, currently worth about 27 billion euros ($36 billion), will begin this year and result in half of Germany’s reserves being stored in Frankfurt by the end of the decade, the Bundesbank said in a statement today. It will bring home all 374 tons of its gold held at the Banque de France and a further *300 tons from the New York Federal Reserve*, it said. Holdings at the Bank of England will remain unchanged.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...iate-674-tons-of-gold-to-germany-by-2020.html

So it's going to take 7 more years to transfer 674t, and 300t from an 420t Fed inventory, but yet it only takes the UK 6 months to ship 798t to Switzerland??



> The UK’s gold exports have surged nearly tenfold this year as investor selling drives the bullion out of London vaults into the hands of Asian consumers.
> UK gold exports to Switzerland, the hub of the gold refining industry, leapt to 798 tonnes in the first six months of the year, up from just 83 tonnes in the first half of 2012, according to data from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office.




http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/876af37c-08dd-11e3-ad07-00144feabdc0.html

So even the most one eyed gold bear would have to admit that the goings on in the gold sphere leave a lot of questions unanswered, and only fuels the bugs even more. Information is power against those that conspire to game the markets?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gold enters a 'new' bull market as the planets align? Looks like $1425 is the new resistance, then $1480 target?

Todays questions - 

Which currency doesn't need defending?

Where do unwanted $USD's go?



> Hans Redeker from Morgan Stanley said a “negative feedback loop” is taking hold as emerging markets are forced to impose austerity and sell reserves to shore up their currencies, the exact opposite of what happened over the past decade as they built up a vast war chest of US and European bonds.
> 
> The effect of the reserve build-up by China and others was to compress global bond yields, leading to property bubbles and equity booms in the West. The reversal of this process could be painful.
> 
> “China sold $20bn of US Treasuries in June and others are doing the same thing. We think this is driving up US yields, and German yields are rising even faster,” said Mr Redeker. “This has major implications for the world. The US may be strong to enough to withstand higher rates, but we are not sure about Europe. Our worry is that a sell-off in reserves may push rates to levels that are unjustified for the global economy as a whole, if it has not happened already.”...




Chart of the day for the bears.......


----------



## G Gekko

Gold rally looks like it could continue for a while:

http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2013-08-27/gold-is-very-close-to-a-bull-market-moy


----------



## explod

The resistance at US$1400 has this week become support.

Based on my observations of chart behaviour in relation to gold against the days of the weeks fluctuations, particularly Fridays gold will finish the week below $1400, probably around $1385.

A steady acumulating rise is what I like to see. So the recent action is loooking good, IMHO.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> The resistance at US$1400 has this week become support.
> 
> Based on my observations of chart behaviour in relation to gold against the days of the weeks fluctuations, particularly Fridays gold will finish the week below $1400, probably around $1385.
> 
> A steady acumulating rise is what I like to see. So the recent action is loooking good, IMHO.




Right on cue there goes the Illuminati attacking ya gold,


----------



## Frank D

*GOLD Primary Cycles*

Gold has continued up into the August levels @ 1411 and stalled, helped by a move back above the BUY 
zone @ 1337 & the monthly 50% level in August.

The trend for the rest of the year is based on the *September level @ 1397 (next week)...*

It's either going to drift back down into the BUY zone @ 1337, as *part of a larger Primary trend down into 
the 2014 lows....*

 OR, there is a larger rotation upwards that could take place that sees gold rises, as part of a move 
towards the 2014 Yearly 50% level :- 1491 to 1526.( Primary Cycles)

If the latter occurs, then there is still the view that GOLD will revisit the Primary lows in 2014, as part of
 the *Break & extend pattern from the 2013 Yearly lows (Dilernia Principle)*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Right on cue there goes the Illuminati attacking ya gold,




It's becoming just too obvious when you put your sell orders in TH!

How much physical do you have now? I hear JPM will pay you a premium for it 

Gold is a currency - last one standing in a currency war?



> This just in: Societe Generale Strategist Albert Edwards sees a massive market crash on the horizon.
> 
> The S&P 500 index SPX-0.32% will tumble to 450. Investors will bid up haven assets like gold, which will climb seven-fold, and the 10-year Treasury note, whose yield will fall below 1%, he writes in his latest note to clients.
> 
> Gold will soar to $10,000 per ounce, he said, while U.S. Treasurys will yield less than 1 percent and the U.S. S&P 500 will plummet over 72 percent to levels of 450. He did not give a time frame for these moves, however.


----------



## G Gekko

explod said:


> The resistance at US$1400 has this week become support.
> 
> Based on my observations of chart behaviour in relation to gold against the days of the weeks fluctuations, particularly Fridays gold will finish the week below $1400, probably around $1385.
> 
> A steady acumulating rise is what I like to see. So the recent action is loooking good, IMHO.




Nice prediction. I agree also, if it shoots to the sky then the only place for it to go is down. Hopefully we'll see a rebound as early as next week.


----------



## notting

> DJ MARKET COMMENT: Gold Rise Fails to Lift Miners as Risk Appetite Falls




WTF!

Oh right.  Gold is a safe haven but gold miners are risk assets.  I see.  That makes sense, they should move in contrast to each other.
If I were a drinker I think I'd do a full litre of gin at this point.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Finally I think GOLD will have range bound from $1200 to $1500. There will be some support for gold due to new development. If gold break psychological barrier of $1500 it may trade in the range bound from 1400 to 1600. 

The military coup in Egypt and the crisis in Syria have been stopped the collapse of the gold price.

I also think we may have biggest gain in some commodity stocks sooner than later.

In the long run both gold and oil may come down.

If Gold prices go down dramatically both India, China and countries over exposure to gold will hit hard. More consumption of gold in India will create more problems for India now.  In rupee value Indian gold and silver are having good prices now.  Indian gold market may have more volatility in the in the short run. Indian rupee may stabilize sooner than later.

Some gold players may profit when gold reach around $1400.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## Bintang

MARKETWINNER said:


> My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.




Thank goodness!


----------



## Stratanu

Gold has extended its setback, removing both the 20-day average at 1377 and former price support at 1373. This leaves the immediate focus now on more important levels at 1352/49 – channel, price and 40-day average support at 1352/46 – which we would expect to support a rebound. Bigger picture, below here and 1337 – 38.2% of the June/August rally – would suggest the broader bear trend is resuming, for 1277/72. Resistance moves to 1400, but above 1415/17 to retarget the 1434 recent high. Above here would see further strength to tougher resistance at 1463/1488 – channel and a cluster of retracement resistance.

Strategy: Short, stop above 1435. Take profit at 1280.


----------



## notting

Down 2.5% last night to 1320 ish.
As tapering starts it will be interesting to see if gold can get back down to 1275 and will be even more interesting to see what it does then.
Syria has been such an annoying distraction from the rhythm of main game.


----------



## Frank D

*Gold Primary cycles*

GOLD remains around the BUY of 1337, as it consolidates within the monthly cycles.

It may continue to do so for the rest of the year, as it moves into 2014...

but the Primary cycles continue to suggest a Primary trend down into the 2014 Yearly lows, and 
*long term BUY zone.*


----------



## notting

Debt solution and tapering will end golds shine for quite some time, unless some other risk starts dominating speculative thinking.


----------



## young-gun

notting said:


> Debt solution and tapering will end golds shine for quite some time, unless some other risk starts dominating speculative thinking.




By tapering I assume you're referring to the fed. They won't be tapering any time soon, in fact I'd put money on never.


----------



## skc

young-gun said:


> By tapering I assume you're referring to the fed. They won't be tapering any time soon, in fact I'd put money on never.




How much? I think plenty of people will be willing to take the other side of the bet.


----------



## zac

young-gun said:


> By tapering I assume you're referring to the fed. They won't be tapering any time soon, in fact I'd put money on never.




When you say soon, what time frame? ie weeks, months, next year?
I personally expect early next year.

So you're putting money on it from a trading point of view? Whats your money on?


----------



## young-gun

zac said:


> When you say soon, what time frame? ie weeks, months, next year?
> I personally expect early next year.
> 
> So you're putting money on it from a trading point of view? Whats your money on?




By 'anytime soon' I meant I personally don't think they will ever taper. If they were to taper it will be very short lived. Bernanke simply *hinted* at tapering a couple of months ago and yields started to spike and markets fell. As for what my money is on, I'm not much of a trader, and don't have enough knowledge to comfortably day trade or anything. Long term I don't see holding stocks as a good option. Naturally I own bullion, despite all the naysayers, I am aware it doesn't return anything.

If I was a trader I think it would be very difficult to judge where too from here. We're in the unknown. You would suspect markets will continue to creep in an upward trend, however more stimulus will be required shortly to maintain the desired effects. This is clearly evident just by looking into recent history and how every other QE has failed/ended. I would short term trade in advance of big announcements relating to QE. Rather not dive into how I would trade it as I wouldn't want it to be misconstrued for advice, and they may not be the best ideas for trades to place.

The second they taper rates spike = bad for government = hit debt ceiling even faster = more of the same until we reach a breaking point.

JMO of course.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Right on cue there goes the Illuminati attacking ya gold,
> 
> View attachment 54131




Deja Vu? Right on Q? Perzactly 1 month later........you'd think they would get the work experience kid to change the sell algo once in a while??


----------



## Tano

Code:
	






Uncle Festivus said:


> Deja Vu? Right on Q? Perzactly 1 month later........you'd think they would get the work experience kid to change the sell algo once in a while??




Would you able to explain  the graph in relation to the attack? Is it the sudden drop in price in the dying minutes of the last day of the month?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Tano said:


> Code:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would you able to explain  the graph in relation to the attack? Is it the sudden drop in price in the dying minutes of the last day of the month?




Who knows these days, could be - 

a major fund was said to be rebalancing its gold position
end of qtr window dressing
CFTC gone home due to government shut down
yet another fat finger, several times, right at the same time
a Fed lickspittle creating a low buffer for the debt ceiling fiasco to be bought into
all part of the scheme to break the resolve of anything not $USD because the $USD is fast losing the global reserve status.


----------



## Porper

Uncle Festivus said:


> Who knows these days, could be - all part of the scheme to break the resolve of anything not $USD because the $USD is fast losing the global reserve status.




Doesn't your last comment go against everything you have been saying over the years Uncle? If the $USD is not recognised as a safe haven then what is? Still Gold I suppose but there continues to be this manipulation...gee the manipulators have a lot to answer for!! It couldn't just be normal market forces could it?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Porper said:


> Doesn't your last comment go against everything you have been saying over the years Uncle? If the $USD is not recognised as a safe haven then what is? Still Gold I suppose but there continues to be this manipulation...gee the manipulators have a lot to answer for!! It couldn't just be normal market forces could it?




Huh? What are you referring to? It's all about the $USD and whether it's creditors will eventually realise that the emperor has indeed no clothes on? This is the serious, almost unanimous main stream answer to the Debt ceiling worries - "the US will NEVER default because they can just print some more money"? The amount that $USD's make up as reserve currencies is falling at the rate of 1% per year for the last 10 years.



> The U.S dollar is shrinking as a percentage of the world's currency supply, raising concerns that the greenback is about to see its long run as the world's premier denomination come to an end.
> 
> When compared to its peers, the dollar has drifted to a 15-year low, according to the International Monetary Fund, indicating that more countries are willing to use other currencies to do business.
> 
> "If the dollar loses status as the world's most reliable currency the United States will lose the right to print money to pay its debt. *It will be forced to pay this debt*




Gold may ebb & flow, and yes it is manipulated simply because it can be for the benefit of a few vested interests, namely the BOE, and without scrutiny as seen by the CFTC verdicts. I submit exibit A - the LIBOR manipulation etc etc

More and more wealth funds have diversified into gold too, not willing to take a gamble on any currencies. The problem for the gold unbelievers is that they see the price as a short term indicator of value, when they should be seeing it as a long term indication of fiat currency decline ie in 10 years time gold will still have positive buying power, yet todays fiat in your pocket will have lost a good proportion of it's 'value'? Unless of course you spend it today, which is what the CB's and treasuries want/force you to do by creating inflation? And yes, it does still exist, but gold is now the insurance for currency deflation....??


----------



## notting

Gold broke through a technical level on Friday with the help of a massive single sell order.
This will obviously trigger selling and has.
Yet at the same time we have had a bit of a flip back to potential volatility with the expected resolution on the debt ceiling not resolved.
Taking up the sellers for a short term bounce?


----------



## Kingpin

Read a great article on the bull.com about gold today worth a read
I purchased kcn @1, 61 still relatively low but I think its only a matter of time 
And im in no hurry


----------



## Kingpin

Bought kcn at 1, 61 still relatively low but I think we will see a surge upwards soon
Good article on thebull.com about gold worth a read


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Apparently gold isn't manipulated? Apparently someone decided to get rid of a few million ounces just lying around gathering dust & didn't care what price they got for it?

The more interesting fact is that someone else thinks this is great and just soaks it all up, for the net effect of dumping 2 million ounces last Friday at the Comex open was an initial decline of $30 but as of today only down $12?

Keep on dumping and they will just keep on buying.......


----------



## aclassic

When do you reckon it's going to be quoted in Yuan?

cheers.


----------



## 13ugs13unny

aclassic said:


> When do you reckon it's going to be quoted in Yuan?
> 
> cheers.




LOL very soon - at least it would look like its worth something when it is quoted in Yuan.


----------



## notting

You can see why Goldman Sachs charge such massive prices to do what they do -



> “Gold prices have been rising for 11 years, and there seems to be no danger they will drop any time soon. According to the Goldman Sachs analysts, the gauge of future price swings is near a five month low.
> On January 13, 2013 a Goldman Sachs report predicted that gold futures would reach $1,940 per ounce in the next twelve months. Morgan Stanley is equally bullish, forecasting an average price of $2,175 in 2013.
> - See more at: http://emergingmoney.com/commoditie...ess-return-for-gold-gld/#sthash.nvAY39VQ.dpuf.




Are we there yet?  Years nearly 3/4 over.

Ah not quite.



> Oct 8, 2013 The head of Goldman Sachs' commodities research division says gold is a "slam dunk sell".
> Jeffrey Currie has made some pretty bold predictions in the recent past. Notably, Currie said in January that oil would hit $150 per barrel by the summer. He was too high by about $40.
> Speaking at a panel in London on Tuesday, Currie said that once the US budget battle comes to a conclusion, the American economy will improve. So, that would make gold what he termed a "slam dunk sell" towards Goldman's price target of $1,050 per ounce. The last time gold was that low, the world was digging out of the financial crisis half a decade ago.




I guess it's understandable given the massive changes we have seen in the economic climate and activities over the past 6 months or so like the ....Ah......Um......change in the eerrr...  yeah that.



> Mar 13, 2013 - The price of iron ore is tipped to be the next mineral to suffer a sharp price decline ... account for about 70% of the iron ore imported by China,which has been both a ... iron ore imports dropping sharply in February, sparking dire predictions for the ... of $90 a ton by 2015 from the investment bank, Goldman Sachs.




What would we do without them?


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> You can see why Goldman Sachs charge such massive prices to do what they do -
> 
> 
> 
> Are we there yet?  Years nearly 3/4 over.
> 
> Ah not quite.
> 
> 
> What would we do without them?




I think one could make a living out quoting these muppets...worse thing is the media is not pointing out what you are...there's no one left to keep any body honest anymore.


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> worse thing is the media is not pointing out what you are...there's no one left to keep any body honest anymore.




Long live ASF!!


----------



## Smurf1976

notting said:


> You can see why Goldman Sachs charge such massive prices to do what they do



Actually their service is indeed quite valuable. 

Just do the opposite of whatever they are recommending and most likely you'll do quite well. At least that's how it seems based on this thread and others I've read mentioning GS.

I do get the impression that what they recommend you do, is not what they are actually doing themselves. Same goes for many of these big financial firms that make most of their money by means that isn't related to investment advice.


----------



## tinhat

One thing about the Giant Squid is that they do telegraph when they are going to short a stock or commodity. In recent times I can recall them warning they were about to short BHP, gold and Wesfarmers. I don't recall whether or not they telegraphed shorting iron ore prior to its slump.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

tinhat said:


> One thing about the Giant Squid is that they do telegraph when they are going to short a stock or commodity. In recent times I can recall them warning they were about to short BHP, gold and Wesfarmers. I don't recall whether or not they telegraphed shorting iron ore prior to its slump.




Probably after the fact in their case - they would already be busy lining up the reverse trade on the initial call....

Although, there's no justice 'till someone goes to jail, but for now all they have to do is give back some of the monopoly money they got from the Fed? 



> J.P. Morgan's record $13 billion tentative settlement with the U.S. Justice Department concerning misrepresented residential mortgage-backed securities doesn't absolve senior bank officials or the bank as an institution from criminal charges.
> 
> J.P. Morgan could be dismembered if several senior officers are found guilty of criminal charges or the bank as an institution engaged in fraud or other criminal activities.
> 
> The resulting crippling or breakup of J.P. Morgan would have grave consequences for major corporations and the broader economy that rely on the institution as their primary banker, and those firms' chief financial officers would do well to start shopping their business elsewhere.
> 
> Also, other Wall Street institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, marketed similarly shaky securities.




Lava Girl get's the chop, Dimon next?



> JPMorgan had more success with the energy regulator. Even though it extracted the $410 million settlement on Tuesday, the regulator spared a senior bank executive, Blythe Masters, who investigators originally contended made “false and misleading statements under oath.”
> 
> In March, agency investigators said that they planned to recommend that the regulator hold Ms. Masters “individually liable,” a move that would have cast a shadow over her career on Wall Street, where she is well known for developing complex financial instruments. The decision to forgo individual charges against Ms. Masters and three of her employees was *an abrupt reversal for the regulator*, which did not accuse her of lying in its final order. It is also a major victory for Ms. Masters.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Gold has been very quiet over the last 4 days.... looking for a move but atm no idea which way.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> Gold has been very quiet over the last 4 days.... looking for a move but atm no idea which way.




No clear direction = no trading = boring? While ever markets are being distorted by CB intervention, nobody, except JPM perhaps, probably really knows which way is the next big move? Being linked to the 'taper' doesn't help either.

GS & JPM under investigation, but don't hold your breath thinking anyone will be sent to jail.......we really don't live on the same planet as these people?



> At least eight banks including Citigroup Inc. (C) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) have said they’re being investigated by authorities examining the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market and are cooperating. Citigroup, JPMorgan and Barclays Plc (BARC) have suspended or put on leave some of their most senior currency traders amid the inquiry. No one has been accused of wrongdoing.
> 
> The U.S. Federal Reserve is examining legal and regulatory exemptions that have allowed banks including Goldman Sachs to trade and own raw materials such as oil, coal and metals, a person with knowledge of the matter said last month.




I shoulda been a lawyer.........



> The firm also disclosed today that it’s “reasonably possible” legal losses rose to $4 billion in the third quarter. The figure, which represents an estimate of how much legal costs may exceed reserves, increased from $3.5 billion in the second quarter and compares to $5.7 billion for JPMorgan and $5.1 billion for Bank of America Corp.




Gold will become interesting when all the lawsuits against these banks by pension funds etc start to get going in earnest and question the TBTF mindset.......it's going to get ugly?



> There are multiple scandals blowing up right now, including a whole set of ominous legal cases that could result in punishments so extreme that they might significantly alter the long-term future of the financial services sector.
> 
> As one friend of mine put it, "Whatever those morons put aside for settlements, they'd better double it."




http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/chase-isnt-the-only-bank-in-trouble-20131105


----------



## Joules MM1

i like to get my bias from a cup a java

but if you prefer big-boy data why not try some COT biscuits....yum


page 3 

http://www.insidercapital.com/BullishReview/lmnpo/br_financial.pdf

page 23 top graphics
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0txfdw4hn...pekulanten auf der Spur 18.11.2013, KW 47.pdf

sehr gut !


----------



## Joules MM1

have some of that......thankyou


----------



## tinhat

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 55437
> 
> 
> have some of that......thankyou




Are you suggesting we have seen a capitulation? Will be interesting to see where the price ends up in the next 24 hours.


----------



## Joules MM1

tinhat said:


> Are you suggesting we have seen a capitulation? Will be interesting to see where the price ends up in the next 24 hours.




the question is by whom? who's giving in....last cupla sessions have seen a lot of small hooks being sold-into ....last weeks COT report showed institutionals out-weighing commercial buyers....and institutionals tend to trend so they'll have open sells aside from closing longs....

pre-empting pmi/mfi flashes is my guess...but its a guess..... espesh as the volumes are like annoc size


----------



## Joules MM1

think i want to see constructive bid above 72's to go with longs


----------



## Joules MM1

tweet



> Anıl Dogru ‏@anl78 2h
> 
> December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Trades. ( via @nanexllc ) pic.twitter.com/YAWZZC1zm


----------



## havaiana

Joules MM1 said:


> ...pre-empting pmi/mfi flashes is my guess...but its a guess..... espesh as the volumes are like annoc size




Good guess

After PMI: (right hand side chart shows the futures volume on a 30min)




Looks like it's still being offered pretty fiercely too

Interesting that gold has been moving correctly before a few of the US announcements recently


----------



## Joules MM1

havaiana said:


> Good guess
> 
> After PMI: (right hand side chart shows the futures volume on a 30min)
> 
> 
> Looks like it's still being offered pretty fiercely too
> 
> Interesting that gold has been moving correctly before a few of the US announcements recently




yep, trending resumes


----------



## Joules MM1

something for the buyers:



			
				David Wilson@TheOneDave said:
			
		

> Gold-mining stocks are as cheap versus gold as they were in 2001, before the metal surged. See my Chart of the Day.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

NCM lowest for 10 years and lower low.......proportionally oversold?


----------



## zac

Uncle Festivus said:


> NCM lowest for 10 years and lower low.......proportionally oversold?
> 
> View attachment 55465




Cheers for that info UF. What do you think of MMS (Medusa Mining)

MMS & NCM both seem good buys at the moment, trading under book value. They seem good value at these levels. Of course the growth in this will be when commodities take off again which may be a long time coming.


----------



## tinhat

MML have been a disappointment over the past couple years. So much promise and so much under delivery. Delays to the mine expansion and new mill have meant that they have missed the boat during the boom years. Once they get their new mill running it is going I think the market is going to want to see real hard production figure reports before faith in management is restored. The long term potential is there. They have to deliver. I hold. We may have seen the share price bottom in June. Time will tell. We are talking about a stock that has been in downtrend for two and a half years now so if you are thinking about a long term investment it might be worth waiting until the chart demonstrates it has turned around.

The MML share price was around these levels back in May 2009 and the price of gold then was a touch under $1,000.


----------



## Porper

Uncle Festivus said:


> NCM lowest for 10 years and lower low.......proportionally oversold?
> 
> View attachment 55465




I might take an interest between $5.00 - $6.00...realistic i.m.o.


----------



## Joules MM1

pos feedback loop ? ....jewellery retailers sell less = less demand too = deflationary trend = (etc etc)



data SoberLook
https://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/404836154450522114/photo/1


----------



## Joules MM1

expecting to continue the bounce bias today and tomorrow...event tho we have news releases they'll prob be whips only....just a chance for money to do business both ways

retail traders should size with caution trading this kind of chop

anyways

some articles for anyone new to bullion/pm's

www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/03/gol...ference-call-with-a-handful-of-big-banks.html


http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-fix-112620131

ColinTwiggs says:
May 6, 2013 at 5:18 am EST

"There is no one spot market for gold. The feed we receive provides bid and ask prices from major dealers, as collated by Morningstar in London."



			
				Colin Twiggs 060513 said:
			
		

> Gold is testing resistance at $1500. There has been much discussion in the media of strong buying of physical gold, but this is not confirmed by the chart. Gold now presents a strong setup for a short trade. After a reasonable bear market rally, price is now consolidating below resistance at $1500. Breakout below $1450 and the rising trendline would signal another primary decline, testing  primary support at $1320 but with a target of  $1150*.



http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/05/05/gold-and-crude-bear-market-rally/


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-19/g...fed-tapers.html

Gold’s Drop to Lowest Since ’10 Will Extend for Goldman Sachs

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

When "normal people" get in something professionals will get out.

Next 12 to 24 months USD is up. Gold will go down to $600 level. Gold is a commodity like any other commodities and yields zero return. There are a lot of assets out there that can offer and will offer higher yield.  Gold has no industrial value whatsoever except for the jewelry Indian market. Gold went up due to pure speculation cash moving from one asset to another on a global scale. Gold isn't an investment it's a pure speculative move. Most gold buyers jumped blindly on gold speculating on "upcoming hyper- inflation. We should not forget that even in the 600s gold will still be 50% higher than in 2004. For mid and long term players it is time to go behind out of favour boring commodities. These types of commodities will have demand in all types of situations. Can anybody postpone eating and drinking in inflationary or non- inflationary environment? Even during war people cannot wait without eating and drinking. They cannot eat gold and silver. What about two children policy in China?  One thing I like to mention here. There will be great demand for Australian and New Zealand meat from China in the coming decade. As a commodity meat will shine in the coming decade. Even for kangaroo meat there will have great demand from China.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## barney

MARKETWINNER said:


> When "normal people" get in something professionals will get out.
> 
> Next 12 to 24 months USD is up. Gold will go down to $600 level.




I see a few holes in some of your theories M/W 

Gold under $1000/oz. will put most Gold producers under water.  Long term support at $1030/oz. could get tested, but Supply and Demand would have to balance at some point.

If we get the "Armageddon" you are describing you may be right .... you can't eat Gold, but it would likely buy you a lot more rice bubbles than a pile of iron ore would


----------



## Buckfont

This from Michael Pento a month ago....26/11/2013 Huff Post Business

The money supply as measured by M2 is now rising at a 12.1 percent annualized rate, which is causing the fickle Fed to renew its threats about ending QE. The minutes released from the latest FOMC meeting indicate the tapering of asset purchases could once again begin within the next few meetings.

Could it be the Fed is finally getting concerned about the asset bubbles it so desired to create? The robust increase in money supply has pushed stock prices higher; you could also throw in diamonds, art, real estate and Bitcoins to name just a few assets that are in raging bull markets. All those items just mentioned are not counted in the CPI measurement and therefore allow most on Wall Street and in D.C. to claim there is no inflation.

But despite promises from the Fed that tapering (when and if it ever comes) isn't tightening monetary policy, the Ten Year Note just isn't a believer. That benchmark yield was trading below 2.70 percent before the FOMC minutes were released, and then shot up to 2.84 percent within 24 hours of learning the taper talk was back on again; clearly illustrating the enormous pent-up pressure on bond yields.

So what you may say? Aren't rising yields a sign of a healthy economy? Perhaps under normal conditions that is true. But in sharp contrast, today's rising yields are the result of the combined forces of inflation and tapering fears. In reality, ending QE is all about the government relinquishing its utter dominance of the bond market.

However, the fear over the imminent end of easy money is for the most part unfounded. And even if the Fed were to curtail QE sometime in the near future, it would only last briefly; and the tightening policy would have to be quickly reversed, as I believe the entire globe would quickly sink into a deflationary depression. Precious metal investors may have to wait until the attempted exit from QE fails before a major, and indeed, record-setting advance can occur.

In addition, the odds are also increasing that Janet Yellen (whom I have dubbed the counterfeiting Queen) will allow asset bubbles to increase to a much greater degree than her predecessor, Ben Bernanke ever did. And that should drag commodities along for a nice ride. After all, the gold market has been busy pricing in the end of QE for multiple quarters. There is a good chance that the beginning of tapering would lead to a reversal of the trade to sell gold ahead of the news. But the major averages have priced in a sustainable recovery on the other side of QE, which will not come to fruition. For the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ the end of QE will be especially painful.

But the truth is the U.S. economy is more addicted to the artificial stimuli provided by the Fed and government than during any other time in our nation's history. Aggregate debt levels, the size of the Fed's balance sheet, the amount of monthly credit creation and the low level of interest rates are all in record territory at the same time. This condition has caused the re-emergence of bond, stock and real estate bubbles all existing concurrently as well.

A unilateral removal of stimulus on the part of the Fed will send the dollar soaring and risk assets plunging -- you could throw in emerging market equities and any other interest rate sensitive investment on planet earth. The Fed is aware of this and that is why it is desperately trying to deceive the market into believing ending QE will not cause interest rates to rise. This is a silly notion. Since QE is all about lowering long-term rates how can it be that ending QE won't cause the opposite to occur? This is why the FOMC minutes released today show that the Fed is debating different tactics to run in conjunction with the taper; such as charging banks interest on excess reserves in an attempt to offset the deflationary forces associated with tapering asset purchases.

Nevertheless, the most important point here is most money managers on Wall Street are convinced this is an economy that is on a sustainable path -- but they are completely wrong. Disappointingly, it is much more probable that the government has brought us out of the Great Recession only to set us up for the Greater Depression, which lies just on the other side of interest rate normalization.

Sadly, the Fed has killed the buy and hold theory of investing for many years to come. Having an investment strategy for both rampant inflation and sharp deflation is now essential at this juncture.


Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book "The Coming Bond Market Collapse."


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Stock markets are breaking new high. Dollar doesn’t seem to go down. Consumer spending is looking good. Gold is experiencing its worst year in 32 years. I do expect 52-week lows in precious metals in the near future. With this end of year tax loss selling, I did expect some further declines in the precious metals.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## explod

barney said:


> I see a few holes in some of your theories M/W
> 
> Gold under $1000/oz. will put most Gold producers under water.  Long term support at $1030/oz. could get tested, but Supply and Demand would have to balance at some point.
> 
> If we get the "Armageddon" you are describing you may be right .... you can't eat Gold, but it would likely buy you a lot more rice bubbles than a pile of iron ore would




Agree barney and with 10 year US T bond yields crossing above 3% the last few days we may have a scatter in the hen house pretty soon now, or fox skins on the fence.

The huge finance/media mania call we have seen for the last month or two, for gold below US$1,000, has in the past signaled bottoms.


----------



## Porper

explod said:


> Agree barney and with 10 year US T bond yields crossing above 3% the last few days we may have a scatter in the hen house pretty soon now, or fox skins on the fence.
> 
> The huge finance/media mania call we have seen for the last month or two, for gold below US$1,000, has in the past signaled bottoms.




The fundamentals don't interest me but when everybody is bearish and predicting further substantial falls then a bottom will be made. Getting near that point now. Doesn't seem too long ago that people were jumping on at the highs with almost every analyst predicting over 2000. Same thing in reverse!!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Different analysts have different ideas on gold. According to some it is expected to see modest recovery in 2014. On the other hand some are very bearish on gold and it is expected go down as low as around $600. It is very interesting. I believe there could be some bull commodities in 2014.  Moreover there are attractive opportunities in global stocks markets including other areas  than investing in gold market. It is also expected that USD could become bull currency in 2014 and 2015. It will be the game changer in many ways. I am one of the big bulls for USD and one of the big bears for both AUD and NZD. No commodity will stay high or low for ever. As I said now it is going to be different ball game. It is expected that some sectors are going to benefit lot in the coming years. We could see emerging commodities, stocks and currencies. Have a great 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## So_Cynical

Was looking at the 10 year chart over the weekend and noticed the obvious, POG now back to where it should be, back to the long term 10 year trend..if we consider the irrational exuberance of 2011/12 to be just that then its full steam ahead with everything going according to plan.

Based on the above i would think that the miners look to be extraordinary opportunities at current prices. 
~


----------



## skc

So_Cynical said:


> Was looking at the 10 year chart over the weekend and noticed the obvious, POG now back to where it should be, back to the long term 10 year trend..if we consider the irrational exuberance of 2011/12 to be just that then its full steam ahead with everything going according to plan.




Over such a large range it might be worth looking at the log scale. 



So_Cynical said:


> Based on the above i would think that the miners look to be extraordinary opportunities at current prices.
> ~




This I agree. Some of these stocks are priced as if they will never making money again. But one would need to pick the right stock and size their risk appropriately (as per usual). A quick look across metrics like life of mine, operating costs and balance sheet strength will yield lower-risk candidates than others.


----------



## Value Collector

So_Cynical said:


> Was looking at the 10 year chart over the weekend and noticed the obvious, POG now back to where it should be, back to the long term 10 year trend..if we consider the irrational exuberance of 2011/12 to be just that then its full steam ahead with everything going according to plan.
> 
> Based on the above i would think that the miners look to be extraordinary opportunities at current prices.
> ~




An interesting assessment So_C, But what makes you think the fair value should be near 1200. I mean that's a tripling in price in 7 years. Tripling in 7 years is a massive move for an asset that doesn't grow, I mean an ounce is still just an ounce 7years later.

I would think that the growth in the value of gold has to be linked to inflation and population growth in some way. I am not sure these two factors alone could justify a continuation of such rapid growth.

I think there is probably room for more downward movement.


----------



## So_Cynical

Value Collector said:


> An interesting assessment So_C, But what makes you think the fair value should be near 1200. I mean that's a tripling in price in 7 years. Tripling in 7 years is a massive move for an asset that doesn't grow, I mean an ounce is still just an ounce 7 years later.




I didnt say anything about value, simply pointed out that the 10 year trend was still intact and that the price had now returned to trend...i will leave value calculations to the people who think it matters...world average production price is around $1150 USD and as i suggested several months ago this has so far proven to be support.


----------



## Value Collector

So_Cynical said:


> I didnt say anything about value, simply pointed out that the 10 year trend was still intact and that the price had now returned to trend...i will leave value calculations to the people who think it matters...world average production price is around $1150 USD and as i suggested several months ago this has so far proven to be support.




And before that people claimed $1600 as support.

Gold is a weird one to me, Because it doesn't get consumed, it doesn't get used up, it just gets stockpiled. I can't see the cost of production providing support, because if it falls out of favour there is no need for people to keep stock piling it, Those high cost mines would just be shut down.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> It is not hard to work out as the price of gold has gone up an average of 30% per year since 2001.  And as the monetisation of debt looks to continue so will the price of gold go up on its current trend.
> 
> We have had a fair bit of it this year so I am calling US$2,200 2011
> 
> 2012 about $2,900
> 2013  "   "    3,900
> 
> roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.
> 
> And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.




This has been a good thread to flick through, 

This prediction has got to be one of the most amusing I have found, I hope nobody to this guys advice.

According to him we will all be rich, just keep buying shiny metals, 30%pa, easy as that.


----------



## pixel

As with all "useless" commodities - art, stamps, autographs, cricket memorabilia - an ounce of gold ihas no intrinsic value per se; it's worth exactly what the keenest buyer is prepared to pay and the most disenchanted seller is willing to accept. That can change daily and locally, although with the global marketplace, I can find an eager buyer or desperate seller at any place where there is Internet and eBay.


----------



## McLovin

pixel said:


> As with all "useless" commodities - art, stamps, autographs, cricket memorabilia - an ounce of gold ihas no intrinsic value per se; it's worth exactly what the keenest buyer is prepared to pay and the most disenchanted seller is willing to accept. That can change daily and locally, although with the global marketplace, I can find an eager buyer or desperate seller at any place where there is Internet and eBay.




But Tony Greig said it was limited to 5,000 and worth every cent of the $699 + p&h.


----------



## CanOz

This was worth posting again in this thread, thanks Pixel....

10 Reasons the Gold Bugs Lost Their Shirts


----------



## Tyler Durden

Funny thing.

I don't really follow the POG, but at around this time last year, I recall there were heaps of front page news articles about how the POG was dropping. I went to buy a small amount and found a huge queue lined up outside. It took more than an hour to get to the front of the line.

Then, last week I went back to the same place to buy some gold. No queue, only one customer ahead of me inside. I figured, based on this, that the POG had gone back up, but when I looked at the chart, it was actually much cheaper now than it was a year ago! Only now there weren't any news articles on it.

Funny.


----------



## lusk

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's important to know where the entry is, but it's more important to know where the exit is?
> 
> For those in Sydney the SMH ran a story *here*.
> 
> 
> View attachment 56315
> 
> 
> 
> That Q at ABC Bullion takes about an hour to get through. I was after 10oz bars but they only had 1oz left. Totally overwhelming for all involved, totally unprofessional organisation by the vendors.
> 
> An ABC Radio journo (an attractive lady )  was hanging around for *interviews*.
> 
> When there is a genuine bull bust there's just no way of dumping physical, so keep nimble..........
> 
> Others - http://bullionmoney.com.au/
> 
> As for the gold dump over the last 2 weeks, all it has succeded in doing was to sterilise even more paper money into non productive, non velocity, inertness which will need even more QE to counter?
> 
> A little inflation in Japan though - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...boost-burger-price-first-time-since-2008.html








lusk said:


> Yep must be over for gold, the sheep are lining up and its in the news.




Yeah l remember that too


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> This was worth posting again in this thread, thanks Pixel....
> 
> 10 Reasons the Gold Bugs Lost Their Shirts




Yes, and in 2008 the US gold price went from near $1,000 to $750, down 25%.

But in 2010 to late 2011 it went from $1,100 to above $1,800, up about 70%; and,

the last two years as per the article down about 35%.   So in reality it is all over the place, as are currencies.

However in thinking currencies I believe gold to be the safest.  A good way to look at gold is in the very long term, (not thinking of a trading perspective here but asset preservation).   In 1971 gold was US$35 an ounce, today $1,240 up 35 times.  I purchased a basic home back then for $10,000, today that home (in a country town) is worth about $230,000.  In gold we would realise $350,000.   Against our own currency a lot more.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Yes, and in 2008 the US gold price went from near $1,000 to $750, down 25%.
> 
> But in 2010 to late 2011 it went from $1,100 to above $1,800, up about 70%; and,
> 
> the last two years as per the article down about 35%.   So in reality it is all over the place, as are currencies.
> 
> However in thinking currencies I believe gold to be the safest.  A good way to look at gold is in the very long term, (not thinking of a trading perspective here but asset preservation).   In 1971 gold was US$35 an ounce, today $1,240 up 35 times.  I purchased a basic home back then for $10,000, today that home (in a country town) is worth about $230,000.  In gold we would realise $350,000.   Against our own currency a lot more.




So, does this mean your still clinging to your prediction that gold will be hitting $3900 some time soon?


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> In 1971 gold was US$35 an ounce, today $1,240 up 35 times.  I purchased a basic home back then for $10,000, today that home (in a country town) is worth about $230,000.  In gold we would realise $350,000.   Against our own currency a lot more.




Your failing to factor in the income though, the rent generated . If you just retained that net rent after maintaince etc in a bank account you would have a bank account worth $350,000, plus a house.

If you compounded the rent income into another property, you would have even more.

Gold is a terrible long term investment.

The biggest long term argument against gold has to be the compounding effect of other assets that generate income, which can be used to buy more assets.

an ounce in 1971 is still just an ounce in 2014, where as a portfolio of assets that throw off income grow over time or they can feed you without you having to sell the actual asset.


----------



## pixel

explod said:


> Yes, and in 2008 the US gold price went from near $1,000 to $750, down 25%.
> 
> But in 2010 to late 2011 it went from $1,100 to above $1,800, up about 70%; and,
> 
> the last two years as per the article down about 35%.   So in reality it is all over the place, as are currencies.
> 
> However in thinking currencies I believe gold to be the safest.  A good way to look at gold is in the very long term, (not thinking of a trading perspective here but asset preservation).   In 1971 gold was US$35 an ounce, today $1,240 up 35 times.  I purchased a basic home back then for $10,000, today that home (in a country town) is worth about $230,000.  In gold we would realise $350,000.   Against our own currency a lot more.




1971 was 43 years ago. 
In another 43 years, I'll have received a birthday card from the Queen or King or President - assuming they'll still honour centenarians. But most likely, I won't know a Gold Eagle from a $1 Kangaroo. So, waiting is of no use to me.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Value Collector said:


> Gold is a terrible long term investment.




Yeah only if you have eyes that you use though,


----------



## McLovin

explod said:


> However in thinking currencies I believe gold to be the safest.  A good way to look at gold is in the very long term, (not thinking of a trading perspective here but asset preservation).   In 1971 gold was US$35 an ounce, today $1,240 up 35 times.  I purchased a basic home back then for $10,000, today that home (in a country town) is worth about $230,000.  In gold we would realise $350,000.   Against our own currency a lot more.




And if you'd bought in 1980 (before I was even born) you'd still be underwater. The takeaway seems to be don't buy when gold is on a streak, because just like every other asset class, today's above average returns are really just borrowed against tomorrow's returns.


----------



## So_Cynical

Value Collector said:


> And before that people claimed $1600 as support.
> 
> Gold is a weird one to me, Because it doesn't get consumed, it doesn't get used up, it just gets stockpiled. I can't see the cost of production providing support, because if it falls out of favour there is no need for people to keep stock piling it, Those high cost mines would just be shut down.




To understand gold you have to think of it as a currency not a commodity...as a currency it is outperforming all others with the exception perhaps of BC.



Value Collector said:


> Gold is a terrible long term investment.
> 
> The biggest long term argument against gold has to be the compounding effect of other assets that generate income, which can be used to buy more assets.




Currency's are not generally considered to be an asset or an investment, gold just like any other currency can be traded for profit...big difference with gold of course is that it costs $1150 USD to produce an ounce while is costs a fraction of a cent to produce $1150 USD.


----------



## sinner

I have returned just to defend gold from the marauders here who are spouting what is some obvious nonsense.

No asset or asset class returns an income for nothing. Income is generated and (sometimes) returned on a risk basis. This applies to rental income, interest rates, market cap expansion, *everything*. Only the ignorant would believe an asset is guaranteed a return.

An ounce of gold is a unit with the following properties:

* Exists in the physical plane
* It cannot be diluted and has extreme chemical stability/nonreactive properties.
* It holds no economic function (i.e. hoarding it does not disrupt the economy) - this also happens to make it the perfect diversification asset for investments with high correlation to economic function but that is another story.
* It has no counter-party risk

This is the absolute exemplar in a "risk free" asset. 

So let's compare apples to apples here and leave the oranges out of it.

When we are trying to determine how gold has performed, it must be against the same criteria (*since otherwise we should be examining how gold performed if we had loaned it out*, and that would depend entirely on who it was loaned to -- guess what, the performance of gold loaned out is not dissimilar to the performance of other currencies loaned out). 

Essentially there is only one other asset which can match gold in this comparison and that is hard cash in a box under your bed. History has shown that on timelines of over 50-100 years (pension funds, endowments, Central Banks, etc care even if you do not) even cash does not hold up due to dilution and counter-party risk (for example see post WW2 50% devaluation of silver currency in Aus or Nixon closing gold window in US). 

I figured all of this would be eminently obvious to the people who have shown up to take such glee in the decline of the price of gold. I wonder why they don't also troll the subforums for stocks which don't pay dividends or for that matter, any equity or asset class which has not compounded at above the average rate?

Anyway. Since this is *A*SF, we compare the performance of an ounce of gold to an AUD held in a box under the bed. We do not compare against the USD unless there were actually USDs under our bed at some point. Now, just how has an ounce of gold done compared to an AUD held in a box under the bed? Let's take a look...




Now this is an interesting enough chart, especially if you consider things like starting value and rate of change over different time periods, but what I always like to do is flip it over as that is when the waterfall nature of cash underperformance becomes apparent:




I feel at this point if you do not "catch my drift" then you never will, and I question what you are doing wasting your time trolling the gold forum if you aren't interested in such a crappy asset.

However, as a small bonus chart, why don't we see how we would have fared if we had put money into the 500 of the largest (and therefore, best, right?) global companies and sold gold.




Now, you might argue that a total return chart would look less horrifying, and I agree, but I can assure you that it's only slightly less horrifying. I didn't post this last chart in any attempt to "prove" gold is better than stocks after just explaining for over a page the difference between them, but rather to show how gold is highlighting a problem which the global economy has suffered since before the tech bubble (hint: valuation ratios like MC/GDP or CAPE show a very similar pattern).

Morons.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Morons.




Sinner since no one here has true excess capital your argument is rubbish. Any punter with a bit (ie 5 mil or less) of $ to allot would still be better making money 'work'. Putting it in gold to "store" value is about as sensible business decision as closing up shop because you don't want to purchase any more stock that you can then on sell.

Some of the gold bugs talk like they are the Rothschilds. Just LOL. My bet is 99% are wage jockeys deluding yourselves into protecting your extra few hundred left over after you pay your landlord rent.

Forget risk/counter party blah blah. Go out and use your money to grab a bit of the worlds opportunity. Trust me it will still be here for some time......


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Sinner since no one here has true excess capital your argument is rubbish. Any punter with a bit (ie 5 mil or less) of $ to allot would still be better making money 'work'. Putting it in gold to "store" value is about as sensible business decision as closing up shop because you don't want to purchase any more stock that you can then on sell.
> 
> Some of the gold bugs talk like they are the Rothschilds. Just LOL. My bet is 99% are wage jockeys deluding yourselves into protecting your extra few hundred left over after you pay your landlord rent.




I find it so amusing on this thread that always people alternatively call me gold bug or fiat bug (depending on whos delusions I'm addressing on a particular day). 

We have been over this before TH and you know my views, primarily that there are savers and investors, not everyone wishes to be an investor and is happy to save the productive surplus of their human capital (whether they are a wage jockey in Aus or a rickshaw driver in India). Saving in fiat forces you into the position of an investor, whether you want that or not.

We aren't all as well off as you mate, but I'm on six figures and still living like I was when I was earning $30,000 so more than 60% of my net income is "free cash flow" each month. Hardly a couple of hundred dollars. Yes, I pay rent and will continue to do so until the payoff equation changes in my benefit.



> Forget risk/counter party blah blah. Go out and use your money to grab a bit of the worlds opportunity. Trust me it will still be here for some time......




I thought we weren't allowed to give out financial advice on this forum? Maybe the rules have changed. 

Anyway, I did not come back to try and convince everyone to sell all their assets and buy gold, simply defend it as an asset class against smart people with narrow minds and too much time on their hands. In the interests of disclosure, I hold exposure to multiple asset classes of which physical gold is one. 

The numbers speak for themselves, most people in the West think they can grab opportunity and are out there bidding it up, they don't care about gold. I think historically it's been pretty well established that the success rate of bidding up "worlds opportunity" is correlated more to how many others are also bidding rather than the mere presence of it, but whatever. 

Signing out.


----------



## Value Collector

So_Cynical said:


> Currency's are not generally considered to be an asset or an investment, gold just like any other currency can be traded for profit...big difference with gold of course is that it costs $1150 USD to produce an ounce while is costs a fraction of a cent to produce $1150 USD.




Well my comment was in response to explode, who said it is a great long term investment, so you will have to take it with him.

I have no doubt you can make money trading gold if luck and the markets are on your side, just as you can with just about anything. 

I don't consider gold a currency, you would be stretching the concept to make it fit, It certainly wouldn't be a practical one. It does fit the definition of asset though and it is most certainly a commodity.


----------



## Value Collector

Sinner,

I wouldn't call gold risk free, 

1, you are at the risk of it dropping in value for perhaps most of you life (look at the last big crash)

2, as you rightly mentioned, it exists in the physical plain, and there for somebody can walk away with it, theft is a risk.

3, If you decide to hold paper gold, or lock it in a bank volt to prevent risk, then you do have counter party risk and you also lose consistently on the fees for the space your renting.

4, you could also end up buying phony bars.


Gold is an apple, that the gold bugs keep calling an orange hence why I am comparing apples and oranges.

Yes other assets may have some risks that your non reactive, physical plain existing gold does not have, But diversification will minimise those and the income and growth from the others can hide the impact of the investments that did poorly,


----------



## So_Cynical

Value Collector said:


> Well my comment was in response to explode, who said it is a great long term investment, so you will have to take it with him.




You posted



Value Collector said:


> Gold is a terrible long term investment.




And regardless who it was in response to, you said it...so i attempted to enlighten you along the same lines as Sinner has.



Value Collector said:


> *I don't consider gold a currency, you would be stretching the concept to make it fit, It *certainly wouldn't be a practical one. It does fit the definition of asset though and it is most certainly a commodity.




Its irrelevant what you consider gold to be or not be, again i was attempting to enlighten you about why the price of Gold does what it does, and as i was taught on this very forum many years ago, to really understand what's going on with Gold you have to look at it as a currency.

Another thing i learnt on this forum a long time ago was that nothing or at least very little to to be gained from talking, enlightenment can only come from listening (reading) and getting the message...seeing from a different perspective.


----------



## Value Collector

So_Cynical said:


> You posted
> 
> 
> 
> And regardless who it was in response to, you said it...so i attempted to enlighten you along the same lines as Sinner has.
> 
> 
> 
> Its irrelevant what you consider gold to be or not be, again i was attempting to enlighten you about why the price of Gold does what it does, and as i was taught on this very forum many years ago, to really understand what's going on with Gold you have to look at it as a currency.
> 
> Another thing i learnt on this forum a long time ago was that nothing or at least very little to to be gained from talking, enlightenment can only come from listening (reading) and getting the message...seeing from a different perspective.




I have been reading through this thread and the asf in general for a long time before i started putting my 2cents in recently, while I totally agree more is learned from listening, you have to be careful of who you listen too, not everyone here knows their stuff, for example explod predicting gold would be $3900 by now. 

What is wrong with me bringing up my opinion into the discussion, it sounds like your trying to make out I should just sit and be quite and not enter the discussion.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And I was enjoying retirement so much............




> Originally Posted by Value Collector
> 
> I don't consider gold a currency, you would be stretching the concept to make it fit, It certainly wouldn't be a practical one. It does fit the definition of asset though and it is most certainly a commodity.



 Apparently most central banks do consider it a currency......



> Originally Posted by Value Collector
> 
> Sinner,
> 
> I wouldn't call gold risk free,
> 
> 1, you are at the risk of it dropping in value for perhaps most of you life (look at the last big crash)
> 
> 2, as you rightly mentioned, it exists in the physical plain, and there for somebody can walk away with it, theft is a risk.
> 
> 3, If you decide to hold paper gold, or lock it in a bank volt to prevent risk, then you do have counter party risk and you also lose consistently on the fees for the space your renting.
> 
> 4, you could also end up buying phony bars.



 Substitute references to gold for <fiat cash> & you have the same points?

So here we are 5 years since the start of the GFC with over $10Trillion of fresh new fiat either just sitting in banks reserves so they can buy back shares or pay huge bonuses with their other free cash flows and yet the global GDP is barely hobbling along at a positive rate. That is, debt is buying less growth.

The problem with the reduced free float of equities, and the recession cycle getting ever closer, is that when the equity selling starts in earnest there won't be any buyers.......and at the end of the day trillions in phony fiat equity wealth will be simply evaporated literally overnight, setting of a domino effect through the other so called stores of value like housing etc.

The 3 parts of the GFC - 

1 - the 'crisis' - the tipping point of leveraged counter party risk at the end of several central bank induced bull cycles ie property
 2 - the bail-out - by the money printers and the apperance of normality and calm
 3 - the crash - the absense of real growth and broad based prosperity paid for by debt/printing facilitates the collapse of the bubble created by (2)

Do your best while the sun shines for fiat but have a plan to keep it when the bubbles burst.........


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> 1, Apparently most central banks do consider it a currency......
> 
> 
> 2, Substitute references to gold for <fiat cash> & you have the same points?
> 
> 3, So here we are 5 years since the start of the GFC with over $10Trillion of fresh new fiat either just sitting in banks reserves so they can buy back shares or pay huge bonuses with their other free cash flows and yet the global GDP is barely hobbling along at a positive rate. That is, debt is buying less growth.
> 
> The problem with the reduced free float of equities, and the recession cycle getting ever closer, is that when the equity selling starts in earnest there won't be any buyers.......and at the end of the day trillions in phony fiat equity wealth will be simply evaporated literally overnight, setting of a domino effect through the other so called stores of value like housing etc.
> 
> The 3 parts of the GFC -
> 
> 1 - the 'crisis' - the tipping point of leveraged counter party risk at the end of several central bank induced bull cycles ie property
> 2 - the bail-out - by the money printers and the apperance of normality and calm
> 3 - the crash - the absense of real growth and broad based prosperity paid for by debt/printing facilitates the collapse of the bubble created by (2)
> 
> Do your best while the sun shines for fiat but have a plan to keep it when the bubbles burst.........




1, Well the Fed doesn't, 





2, I don't believe I ever said cash was risk free, It was Sinner who brought up the topic of gold being risk free, I was just pointing out that it is not.


3, this is a really interesting lecture series if you want to learn a about the feds response to the gfc, I think you will find it more informative than the conspiracy pages.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> 1, Well the Fed doesn't,
> 
> 2, I don't believe I ever said cash was risk free, It was Sinner who brought up the topic of gold being risk free, I was just pointing out that it is not.
> 
> 3, this is a really interesting lecture series if you want to learn a about the feds response to the gfc, I think you will find it more informative than the conspiracy pages.




The Fed doesn't have a clue about the economy let alone gold, as can be seen with their pump, bail-out & now dump policies over the years.

We all know what the Fed's response was - pump/print up reserves and buy up all the crap from those who took advantage of the Feds policies and legislation changes. The problem now is that the Fed is the market, compounded by the ever reducing free-float of equites......

It's a pity those uni students are wasting their time doing a degree in economics when all you have to know is how much the central bank is buying and or printing every week, then buy equities and other risk-on junk regardless?

Looks like risk off today though, gold up to $1264..........Germany still wants their gold back......who will be the last holding fiat at crunch-time.............China banking system comes under pressure, Chinese prefer gold.....


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> The Fed doesn't have a clue about the economy let alone gold, as can be seen with their pump, bail-out & now dump policies over the years.
> 
> We all know what the Fed's response was - pump/print up reserves and buy up all the crap from those who took advantage of the Feds policies and legislation changes. The problem now is that the Fed is the market, compounded by the ever reducing free-float of equites......
> 
> It's a pity those uni students are wasting their time doing a degree in economics when all you have to know is how much the central bank is buying and or printing every week, then buy equities and other risk-on junk regardless?
> 
> Looks like risk off today though, gold up to $1264..........Germany still wants their gold back......who will be the last holding fiat at crunch-time.............China banking system comes under pressure, Chinese prefer gold.....




Ok, so the fed don't have a clue, the world economy is going down the toilet and Germany wants their gold back


Good luck with that

By reading through this thread I can see you have held the same view for a number of years, How long till you admit your wrong, the world economy is doing a lot better than you give it credit for.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> The Fed doesn't have a clue about the economy let alone gold, as can be seen with their pump, bail-out & now dump policies over the years.




I would love to see you run the US ecconomy any better. it's so easy to call the shots from a key board whole diffent thing when your at the helm. 

back to gold. 

based off the daily and weekly Gold looks good for a rally IMO. I have bought a small position. looking for higher lows and highs to continue.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> Ok, so the fed don't have a clue, the world economy is going down the toilet and Germany wants their gold back
> 
> 
> Good luck with that
> 
> By reading through this thread I can see you have held the same view for a number of years, How long till you admit your wrong, the world economy is doing a lot better than you give it credit for.





'doing a lot better'? It's all about leverage & debt and paying debt back. Leverage is created by the central banks so as long as they can keep the plates spinning while adding new plates everything will appear to be 'doing a lot better'. Eventually the US will be margin called........

Looks like a few margin calls were made today for equities right around the globe? It's all very orderly at the moment, even a 300 point dip in the Dow, but if it get's legs it's going to breathtaking.

Sounds like you've never lived through a recession, part of the Pollyanna sunshine & lollypops generation??


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> I would love to see you run the US ecconomy any better. it's so easy to call the shots from a key board whole diffent thing when your at the helm.
> 
> back to gold.
> 
> based off the daily and weekly Gold looks good for a rally IMO. I have bought a small position. looking for higher lows and highs to continue.




To be fair they (Bernankephiles) are only doing their jobs. It's all theoretical models & numbers to them. If we lived in a beneficial dictatorship without elections or Goldman Sachs lobbyists changing the laws then I would be able to do a better job. But, we don't, so we play the game till it ends and a new one starts all over again. You then need to work out how to keep all the credits from the first game in order to play the next game...... = gold.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Sounds like you've never lived through a recession, part of the Pollyanna sunshine & lollypops generation??




There will be recessions, so what?

Look at last century, many recessions, a great depression, world wars, oil shocks, rise and fall of communism, pandemics, and probably a thousand other things, But through out all of it, owning good businesses and compounding earnings into more investments absolutely smashed holding gold.

Even if you started your investment program right before the great depression, if you dollar cost averaged into the dow jones, you would have achieved 8% compounded growth.

If the leverage that exists now disappeared the price of everything would collapse because of deflation, including gold, where as fiat currency would go up in relative terms, so your basic premise is wrong when you spout about fiats.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> There will be recessions, so what?
> 
> Look at last century, many recessions, a great depression, world wars, oil shocks, rise and fall of communism, pandemics, and probably a thousand other things, But through out all of it, owning good businesses and compounding earnings into more investments absolutely smashed holding gold.
> 
> Even if you started your investment program right before the great depression, if you dollar cost averaged into the dow jones, you would have achieved 8% compounded growth.
> 
> If the leverage that exists now disappeared the price of everything would collapse because of deflation, including gold, where as fiat currency would go up in relative terms, so your basic premise is wrong when you spout about fiats.




Well if you were Warren Buffett perhaps but the rest of the muppets probably did the usual - sold at the lows then were the last ones back in at the top - a bit like now actually if you look at the market data. A lot of people lost everything back in 2008 and will never recover. Same for shareholders of Kodak etc lot's of household names have come and gone....what was your point?

At this stage of the game a recession would be disastrous because of debt & leverage, and if cycles matter then we are only getting closer to the next one yet the global economy has yet to fully recover from the last one, at least the real economies not stock markets or risk-on 'assets'.



> But projections for growth hinge on several *assumptions*, and the IMF warns of nasty spillovers from policies in some of the world’s biggest economies: like a dangerous government fiscal impasse in America, incomplete reform in Japan, and stagnation and high unemployment across the euro area. Emerging markets, many of which have already seen destabilising capital outflows and sinking asset prices, may struggle to weather the storm.




As those that have gone before you, your points have been discussed ad nauseum here so not about to start all over again, but remember that if you are going to start talking returns then also consider the diminution in 'value' of the unit you are valuing it in?? Of special note is the acceleration in the decline when the Fed is created........




Anyway, we shall all find out if gold is the ultimate temporary store of wealth either way soon by the looks of the global mini correction underway?


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> what was your point?




My point is, that owning a portfolio of businesses and other cash generating investments (real estate etc) will over time beat a holding of a fixed asset like gold that doesn't generate earnings or compound, Even through all the market cycles.

Bringing up inflation is pointless as an argument for gold is pointless, Because the assets which I would recommend will also increase in value with inflation like you would expect gold too, but at the same time they generate income.


----------



## beachlife

To see what gold can do during and after a crash go back to 1987 in the charts.  Nearly 18 years before it recovered.

To see how holding a portfolio of "good" businesses for income can work open up the monthly charts for AMP, TLS, MQG, and if your data is old enough have a look at OneTel and HIH, all "good" portfolio stocks many moons ago, not so good now for those that retired in 2000.


----------



## CanOz

This Gold Platinum spread could present another opportunity to enter a short if the retest works...

These are April contracts....the 15 minute looks bullish yet so just watching this one...


----------



## Value Collector

beachlife said:


> To see what gold can do during and after a crash go back to 1987 in the charts.  Nearly 18 years before it recovered.
> 
> To see how holding a portfolio of "good" businesses for income can work open up the monthly charts for AMP, TLS, MQG, and if your data is old enough have a look at OneTel and HIH, all "good" portfolio stocks many moons ago, not so good now for those that retired in 2000.




The key word is good businesses, if you don't have the skill set required to build a quality portfolio of businesses and property like I suggest, simply buy the index and you will still smash gold long term.


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> ...if you don't have the skill set required to build a quality portfolio of businesses and property like I suggest, simply buy the index and you will still smash gold long term.




Although, you haven't bothered to actually check the data to verify your claims that the index will smash gold in the long term, have you?

I already posted one chart to show that this has been a patently false statement for some time with the ESY00/GCY00 ratio. Considering the S&P500 is the *exemplar* of stock indices and pretty much all others have underperformed it in the long term, it still hasn't managed to "smash gold", and I wonder just how long it will take people who bought the index in say, 1999 or any of the ~15 years since to even match golds relative performance, let alone "smash". 

Here's a longer term chart (FTSE100), that in quantitative analysis, fits the definition for "long term stationarity" otherwise known as *your unsubstantiated claim is simply incorrect*.




But somehow I doubt that real data from the real world will highlight the recency bias you suffer from, or stop you from trolling this thread with the party line. :frown: 

Anyway, for anyone watching the XAUAUD chart (this being ASF and all, you'd think that people would stop looking at the XAUUSD chart and talking about things that never happened when priced in AUD -- my guess it's beyond the ability of most posters here to actually consider the idea of XAUAUD) here is my  :




The early rise in 2014 has cemented 1278-1280 as serious support, which is now starting to approach a similar magnitude to the resistance at 1837. With the rejection of intermediate resistance (prior support) at ~1507 and the prices current position in the lower half of this range gives a bearish tendency to the consolidation.

I have heard some discussing gold as a potential "value" play (have a read of the "Value and Momentum everywhere" paper which explains what this means) but with 3,4 and 5y returns still at the high end of the historical range for gold I would personally say we aren't there yet with more falls required to match the historical value cases.

Regardless of the TA, I just buy physical gold with a portion of my monthly surplus which implicitly provides me with a price sensitive basis. 

I think most of the argument is just intellectual masturbation, especially for those that will never purchase physical gold.


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> Although, you haven't bothered to actually check the data to verify your claims that the index will smash gold in the long term, have you?
> 
> I already posted one chart to show that this has been a patently false statement for some time with the ESY00/GCY00 ratio.




Yes, I have actually checked my data and yes you can "smash" gold by simply using as index. If you read my comments, you will see one of my biggest arguments for other investments rather than gold is that they compound, They generate earnings which over time can be used to purchase more investments. 

Simply comparing the price appreciation of an index against the price appreciation of gold is not really addressing my point fairly, the price appreciation of gold over a period of 20 years does not come close to the total return of an index's price + compounded earnings.


----------



## notting

Yellen has reiterated that tapering will continue.
Gold went up after a short blip down.
Seems significant at this moment in time.
Ausi $ did the same.
Priced in I guess.
Or was it the comment on the abandonment of the Taylor rule for the moment and how we are in extraordinary times (still as she sees it - dovish there)
"This economy has severe headwinds left over from the GFC."
Really? 
What? 
As in - What is so extraordinary now? - especially if employment is a lagging indicator?
Seems normal to me.
Perhaps Gold is being driven by Chinese govt buying and not global fear any more.
The globe aint seeing what the Chinese are seeing, till now!


----------



## notting

I missed the critical comment, that 'tapering is not on a preset course and is still subject to employment and inflation data.'
That's a loosener.
A kind of preparation and face saving statement if they decide to indeed taper the taper which I, never the less, think is unlikely.


----------



## CanOz

With tonight's initial jobless claims and retail sales due out in 41 minutes, i'm trying to pick which side will get hurt worse when the number prints....if the number prints bad then gold should spike higher into 1300. If the numbers are good then i think a few longs might get wasted....The market is heavy with new longs, most of the shorts have likely covered out now...down would be swift i reckon...


----------



## John45

Hi all,
I think once the resistance level of $1350 has been broken, gold price should easily go to $1500.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

This can't be correct - bankers manipulating markets?? Getting closer now.......

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ows-signs-of-decade-of-bank-manipulation.html



> The London gold fix, the benchmark used by miners, jewelers and central banks to value the metal, may have been manipulated for a decade by the banks setting it, researchers say.
> 
> Large price moves during the afternoon call were also overwhelmingly in the same direction: *down*. On days when the authors identified large price moves during the fix, they were downwards at least two-thirds of the time in six different years between 2004 and 2013. In 2010, large moves during the fix were negative 92 percent of the time, the authors found.


----------



## JohnITMS

*Today's Winner Is Gold*

Risk taking seems to be off the table today as everyone watches the potential conflict developing in the Ukraine. All of the major stock indexes such as the S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are declining in tandem since the opening bell. Last week, it was reported that money from the small investor was pouring into the market. Did the small investor just buy another top in the stock market?

Not everything in the stock market is falling today, spot gold and gold mining stocks are rallying higher on the trading session. The SPDR Gold  Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) are trading higher by $2.89 to $130.51. This is a new four month high for the precious metal. When gold rallies it is usually a sign of inflation, or unstable stock market activity. Gold will often trade inversely to the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar Index verse the Japanese Yen). Day traders should watch for the GLD to have intra-day resistance around the $131.50 area. This level was the high pivot made on October 29th, 2013. Remember, old high pivot levels will become new resistance points. Either way, gold is the big winner so far today. 

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks


----------



## bigdog

yahoo finance reported this morning:

The price of gold rose $28.70, or 2.2 percent, to $1,350.30 an ounce, its biggest gain of the year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-stocks-slide-tensions-build-215517239.html


----------



## notting

ok.
So it's had a run.
What it will do now is pretty critical!
Tomorrow obviously down due to fears abating on Russia.
How much of the run was extended as that built up?
How much was it simply a gold thing on say, China buying.
Are they still interested at this level? That is the question.


----------



## tinhat

If you take a look at the Coppock indicator on a monthly chart for gold, it's on an uptrend. Compare the turn around in gold price to the copper price which, this week has, rather dramatically, reasserted that it remains in a down trend.


----------



## PipSafe

*Re: AUD/CAD*

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Gold dated 2014.02.20 , according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1391.908.The price by reaching to the resistance ascending Channel edge has been stopped from more ascend and by forming a Shooting Star candlestick patterns( possibility of formation of a top price and changing price direction)and fixing of it by  a descending candle has prepared the field for creating a top price and a descending trend.
Right now the price is under 5-day moving average( Dilay and h4 Time frame) and surmounts the supportive level of 1325.549 that shows the possibility of more descends in this currency pair.Stoch Indicator shows ascending trend of the next candles in this time frame, but because of not being in the same direction of daily(also weekly) time frame it is not so valid. According to the current condition the first warning for descending of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1334.496.


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Tomorrow obviously down due to fears abating on Russia.
> How much of the run was extended as that built up?
> How much was it simply a gold thing on say, China buying.
> Are they still interested at this level? That is the question.




Good points - 



> One thing I look at quite closely is the difference between the Shanghai price of gold and the spot price, and that for me is quite an important indicator of the appetite for gold in China.
> What we’ve actually seen all throughout this move up in gold, before we had the sell off, was that spread was compressing, which to me suggests that the demand in China is slowing, and we have certainly see that through our physical volumes as well.
> Volatility in China’s currency has made gold more expensive to import, with the yuan depreciating about 2.5 per cent against the US dollar this year.
> Also what we have seen is a lot of the demand was front-loaded to last year. In 2013 there were record imports and record consumption of physical gold, and what happened to price last year really brought forward a lot of demand.
> I can’t overemphasise the importance of looking at what demand in China is doing. At the moment I just don’t see them stepping into the market and supporting it, even at prices below $US1300 which is where we are now.
> Markets will always overshoot, so I do see a bit of a risk of a further correction to $US1280 and even below before we see the Chinese come in and support the market.
> 
> ANZ is relatively bullish about the mid-term outlook for price of gold, forecasting it to rise to $US1450 an ounce by the end of the year.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...-stop-us93c-20140328-35mgq.html#ixzz2xE584EyY




Getting interesting as it heads to 1261 ish


----------



## damdin

I think gold is on long trend for at least a year.


----------



## explod

Gold up and US$ down overnight.

Gold *is money uncle ben*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

No posts in here for 5 weeks?

Could be the last great buying opportunity in $AU terms?

From an exchange rate point of view you would have to wonder if the $AU is capped at .94 based purely on the deteriorating conditions in China, so would limit any "currency cap" on the AU price of gold. Which would leave just the US price as the "positive surprise variable" as a falling $AU will support the AU price?

The fact that both prices appear to be 'basing' around these levels and the fact that risk-on alternatives are peaking at records (and more importantly not backed by fundamentals) then gold is primed for another break out as the risk-off trade, and probably when the sheeples least expect it and the experts have yet again written it's obituary? 

I've been topping up every time it trades in this range with 5oz's.........interesting times indeed.....


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> No posts in here for 5 weeks?
> 
> Could be the last great buying opportunity in $AU terms?
> 
> From an exchange rate point of view you would have to wonder if the $AU is capped at .94 based purely on the deteriorating conditions in China, so would limit any "currency cap" on the AU price of gold. Which would leave just the US price as the "positive surprise variable" as a falling $AU will support the AU price?
> 
> The fact that both prices appear to be 'basing' around these levels and the fact that risk-on alternatives are peaking at records (and more importantly not backed by fundamentals) then gold is primed for another break out as the risk-off trade, and probably when the sheeples least expect it and the experts have yet again written it's obituary?
> 
> I've been topping up every time it trades in this range with 5oz's.........interesting times indeed.....
> 
> View attachment 57949




i bought today on the daily like the look of the base... just thinking about short term tops atm.


----------



## Ann

Hi Guys,

I haven't been here for some time, nothing much to say. I still don't have much to say since I first called a top to gold way, way back a couple of years ago, much to the negative howls of the faithful. I am still seeing a strong overhead on the quarterly chart which hasn't been broken and it is still giving me a negative call for gold. 

My original lines are still on my quarterly chart so perhaps when this quarter is over at the end of June I will revisit gold and see if the overhead is still intact and upload a chart.

In the meantime, gold does not appear to be the best investment for positive returns at this stage until there is a break in the long term overhead resistance on the quarterly chart.

Cheers and good trading

Ann


----------



## noirua

IN GOLD WE TRUST
Researching the physical gold market
: http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/


----------



## brerwallabi

Very narrow trading range over the past week cant remember anything like this in the gold chart for ........ not suggesting its bullish but.
Barclays fined 26million pounds for manipulation of London gold fix on Friday.
The banks are on notice now.


----------



## AussieMatt

Things might become more interesting next week.


----------



## dengo

Looks like another descending triangle 

Target = 1182 - ( 1428 - 1182 ) = $936


----------



## notting

So it's brocken down out of that triangle as Ukraine kills 50 Russian covert soldiers and takes back it's airport. Whilst the press is saying Russia and Ukraine are all good. As usual not alot of sense being made anywhere in this stupid bull market.


----------



## dengo

notting said:


> So it's brocken down out of that triangle as Ukraine kills 50 Russian covert soldiers and takes back it's airport. Whilst the press is saying Russia and Ukraine are all good. As usual not alot of sense being made anywhere in this stupid bull market.




No break while it's above $1182
This chart shows a stupid bull market and the next area of support - starting just under $1000


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The bigger picture - it's all relative....


----------



## zac

I guess ultimately, given that gold is an inflation hedge, its not surprising the inflation adjusted data is rather steady.
Investing in gold is more for preservation of wealth rather than growing it.


----------



## dengo

Uncle Festivus said:


> The bigger picture - it's all relative....


----------



## DeepState

Price of gold is almost through the bottom end of the all-in cost curve.  There must be a supply response at some stage?


----------



## DeepState

zac said:


> I guess ultimately, given that gold is an inflation hedge, its not surprising the inflation adjusted data is rather steady.
> Investing in gold is more for preservation of wealth rather than growing it.




That's an interesting observation.  The Gold price spike from the early 70s was OPEC1 [Yom Kippur related Oil Embargo] and the late 70s from OPEC2 [Shah of Iran] which entrenched inflationary expectations. Coupled with a somewhat misguided monetary policy [Phillips Curve] it led to high inflation.  Volcker came in and inflation gradually became more tamed as inflation targeting became the monetary policy of choice.  With that, the price of gold fell in real terms.

More recently, we don't see inflation in consumer prices, but in asset prices.  I find it strange that gold would rise to match it without an associated explanation that its rise has something to do with the loss of faith in a monetary system.  If so, I guess I agree that it's about preservation of wealth - but perhaps in a different way.


----------



## dengo

Weekly MACD & RSI now below their center & support lines and bearish MACD signal line cross


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It really is this simple?

Each red line marks the first week of July & January.......

Move along, nothing to see here - at least until July?


----------



## explod

Okay, time for a dust off here IMO.

With negative interest rates appearing in the euro zone are we going to see a run on the banks and then a lockdown?

Could be a run for gold soon hey.


----------



## DeepState

explod said:


> Okay, time for a dust off here IMO.
> 
> With negative interest rates appearing in the euro zone are we going to see a run on the banks and then a lockdown?
> 
> Could be a run for gold soon hey.




Hi

Negative interest rates have a minor effect for EZ.  You will not see a run on banks etc. I could go into a whole pile of technical points on this, but let's not unless you are genuinely interested in it.  The bottom line is that ECB in presently in the process of undertaking an Asset Quality Review of the major banks in conjuction with the central banks of each member of the EU and bank auditors.  Given the timing of the report delivery, high level knowledge of the asset positions would already be largely known.  Given this, the ECB would not be so stupid as to take an action which would plunge the banking system back into the abyss.  You will notice that lines have not formed around the block with people desperate to pull their deposits out upon the announcement of this initiative. Credit spreads actually compressed (slightly).

Nonetheless, the negative deposit rates on excess reserves is a prelude to a larger QE style of stimulus.  This is normally associated with gold price increases as per what happened in the QE programs conducted by the Fed.  It is also associated with the depreciation of the currency in which the QE is posted, a la Japan.

With gold now at prices which are at the bottom of the all-in production cost curve, supply response is inevitable unless a price rise occurs.

This argues for a rise on gold price vs Euro.  We have seen the EURUSD weaken as the case for QE has grown stronger with data releases and indications that Weidman and co will acquiesce to looser monetary policy.  What we have not seem is a rise in the gold price.  This might be because of the wind down of Fed QE.  We do not know the size of the programs which may come into place in the EZ.  At this time, it appears that BoJ will also need to accelerate its printing as well and Japan is printing as much as the Fed at the moment.  It is quite possible that QE liquidity being added to the global monetary system when the ECB comes to the point will exceed the Fed print.

Although geopol concerns related to Syria, Ukraine, Iran, Thailand are brewing, these are unlikely to sprout into a hot war at present.  However, developments in the South China sea and East China Sea, in particular, involve nationalistic super powers in direct confrontation.  These are very dangerous and the fault lines are under considerable pressure.

So, for reasons not related to a banking crisis following from the most recent ECB moves, I tend to agree with you that gold (denominated in Euro) has some tail winds.


----------



## PipSafe

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Gold dated 2014-06-03, according to the formed technical signs, there was the potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1263.59 .Right now price is above 5-day moving daily time frame that show an uptrend during the next candles. According to the formed movements in price chart, between the top price of 1388.86 and the bottom price of 1240.73, there is a none-ideal  AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 50% and 161.8% that warns about ascending of price from D point.
Stoch indicator with the ascending cycle confirms the D point of AB=CD harmonic pattern and warns about the potential of ascending during the next candles. If price rises and buyers success first of the price targets would be alterant level (Change of polarity)of 1269.54.Right now in long term time frames such as Monthly and weekly, there is not any clear reason for decreasing of the price and generally until the mentioned bottom price is preserved, there is the potential for downtrend reformation.
* 
Technical Analysis of Gold dated 2014.06.10*


----------



## tinhat

PipSafe said:


> (Change of polarity)




She can'na handle it captain.

Interesting analysis. Could be a triple bottom about to form. Time will tell. Where to from here? I can't smell.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> The bigger picture - it's all relative....
> 
> View attachment 58141




So it's still about 30% over valued compared to the 1970 inflation adjusted price, 

Nice chart, it really just shows how terrible holding gold has been long term.

44 years of no growth and no cash flow, makes me shudder.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> So it's still about 30% over valued compared to the 1970 inflation adjusted price,
> 
> Nice chart, it really just shows how terrible holding gold has been long term.
> 
> 44 years of no growth and no cash flow, makes me shudder.




Please be careful with those conclusions, although what I am about to say is not a forecast on Gold.

The chart shows Gold price adjusted for the 1980 CPI definition.  This is a ploy played by the conspiracy/anti-government agency set which claims that subsequent CPI basket revisions are a total sham.  Whilst some elements of the CPI reconstitution is discretionary, the greater part of the adjustments represent changes in what is actually consumed.  There is a big difference between measuring CPI based on a basket of goods that was relevant in 1980 and thinking that this basket remains relevant to present day when we were still using VHS/BETA.  We substitute goods when something we sort of like become cheaper than something we like.  We replace entire categories which had not ben invented.  Mobile phones are pretty darn cheap...seen the one which Gecko carried?  And on it goes...

Also Gold is primarily a store of wealth.  It is so even by those who hold it in the form of jewelry.  This is sold in hard times and there is an active market of such in India and elsewhere.  After Bretton Woods, the US wangled a deal to make its currency the central point for convertibility of other currencies and was anchored to gold.  It was meant that USD and Gold went hand in hand.  Even when Nixon kyboshed the whole deal, gold remained and remains a form of currency.  Its closest substitute remains the USD and this is habitually enshrined by the fact that its price is normally quoted in USD.  Both (or close substitutes thereof) are held in CB vaults (well, not exactly) in substantial volume.

Has gold been a bad performer...relative to its closest cousin being USD deposits?  The following chart shows the real return on the Fed Funds rate after allowing for 30% tax (the chart would have ended at around 2 if no tax allowance were made).  It is negative.  Gold, I think, if held from 1970 to now, would not yet attract tax if still held and would attract a lower capital gains tax if we think about this from an Australian dollar perspective.  Basically, I believe that Gold, as an alternative currency to the USD, actually did its job over this time period.  It provided protection during period of high inflation and quantitative easing in the Plaza Accord and more recently.  Overall, it has provided a better real return than the cash rate.  Not too shabby.

Though you've not said it...I agree with you that the kinds of returns we can expect from this are not like other markets.  This is a currency alternative to the USD for the most part.

Please see below the deflated performance of the Fed Funds rate after allowance for 30% tax and using the official CPI formulation as the basis of adjustment.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> Also Gold is primarily a store of wealth.




Yes, but it is not a particularly good one. There are many non cash assets that you can hold that will perform as long term stores of value, that also generate revenue, which puts them well ahead of gold, and the longer the holding period, the worse gold will appear in comparison.



> It is so even by those who hold it in the form of jewelry.  This is sold in hard times and there is an active market of such in India and elsewhere.




yes, but for a fraction of the cost they purchased it for.



> Basically, I believe that Gold, as an alternative currency to the USD, actually did its job over this time period.




I believe gold is a precious metal, not a currency. But even if I give it currency status, I don't want to store my wealth in a currency, I would much rather store my wealth in an asset that produces currency, while my capital value has the same inflation hedge as gold.



> Overall, it has provided a better real return than the cash rate.  Not too shabby.




I don't really see how your getting that, it's only 30% higher now than it was in 1970, surely compounding the after tax interest from a term deposit for 44years will see a higher return than 30%. even an after tax return of only 2.5% puts $1000 at nearly $3000 (and interest rates went quite high at some points).

Not only that but the return on a term deposit was nice and steady, where gold did nothing for years and then peaked in the last 10years of the 44 year term.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> 1. Yes,
> 
> 2. ...but it is not a particularly good one. There are many non cash assets that you can hold that will perform as long term stores of value, that also generate revenue, which puts them well ahead of gold, and the longer the holding period, the worse gold will appear in comparison.
> 
> 3. yes, but for a fraction of the cost they purchased it for.
> 
> 4. I believe gold is a precious metal, not a currency. But even if I give it currency status, I don't want to store my wealth in a currency, I would much rather store my wealth in an asset that produces currency, while my capital value has the same inflation hedge as gold.
> 
> 5. I don't really see how your getting that, it's only 30% higher now than it was in 1970, surely compounding the after tax interest from a term deposit for 44years will see a higher return than 30%. even an after tax return of only 2.5% puts $1000 at nearly $3000 (and interest rates went quite high at some points).
> 
> Not only that but the return on a term deposit was nice and steady, where gold did nothing for years and then peaked in the last 10years of the 44 year term.





G'day VC

We're mostly on the same page. Just a technical clarification, which was the key reason I wrote the prior post. Anyhow:

1. It has been a traditional medium of exchange and has what people think are reasonable properties for a currency when all else fails.  If you are fleeing some nasty situation, we carry gold and precious stones.  Everything else is too heavy and cumbersome.  Anyway, that's what happens in war or hyperinflation. Money is as money does.  In that sense, it is a store of wealth.  You have reasonably argued that other things can be a store of wealth too.

2. Doesn't make it the best medium of exchange imaginable.  You will always be able to find something better.  But, if we are fleeing and don't trust money anymore then CFD, stock and bonds isn't going to buy you or your friends/family passage.  Gold is a deep out of the money put on the functioning of an economy and society.  The returns will look rubbish relative to paper...until that day comes. Gosh I'm sounding like the people who pump out Austrian Economic doomsday stuff. I don't personally subscribe to the extremity of those views.  But the use of gold as currency historically is a fact.

3. Not actually.  There is a competitive market.  They pay a moderate smelting cost where the jewelry is not pure (it would be too soft for the most part if so), then the spread you might expect for trading bullion at retail.  But, to your point, that's still a wider spread than liquid instruments but pretty comparable to property.  This stuff is a store of wealth for a rainy day which hopefully never comes.  It is so for other domiciles, like China, as well.

4. No argument.  I think the same as you.  The caveat is that if the financial system melts (in hyperinflation, your financial assets will crash), those other monetary assets melt with it.  Gold, it is thought, would remain money good and become money again. OTM put option again. It is kind of 'money in waiting'. If enough people believe it is money and accept as such, it becomes money. Nothing else is close when it comes to this, after fiat. Weird one for you.  Many of the gold bugs out there discount gold mining at zero.  Whilst there probably should be an allowance for production risk etc, the argument goes that since gold is money, no discount should be applied.  You (and I) may not agree with this, but this is said with a straight face and seemingly believed.

5. Uncle's chart which you re-printed is *CPI adjusted using 1980 CPI defintion*.  This was all I really wanted to point out originally..before adding further points (and receiving your thought provoking response).  I previously outlined that the 1980 CPI figure is, in my view, a technical play which makes inflation unrealistically high.  The source is ShadowStats.  Feel free to read it if you want to get freaked out. 

Hence gold has done well in absolute terms.  It has risen in real terms despite having the book thrown at it via a spurious CPI definition.  It would have risen by a lot more if using the official CPI.  I showed a chart illustrating that Fed Funds (as a proxy, probably generous) as deposit rate adjusted by official CPI and tax.  It lost value in real terms.  So, whether you want to deflate gold by the 1980 CPI definition or official, gold has beaten cash by a reasonable margin.

Anyone is free to come to their own conclusions about the extent to which they believe gold represents an alternative currency and whether it has a place in their portfolio for investment or insurance purposes. The case has significant headwinds too.  Nonetheless, I believe there is merit to the views that I have taken from others around the traps and extracted from as content for this and my prior post.  That is not the same as saying I believe it absolutely.

Any Austrian's out there who want to chime in?  Bring it.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> Gold is a deep out of the money put on the functioning of an economy and society.  The returns will look rubbish relative to paper...until that day comes..




I would be happy being the seller of those puts rather than the buyer, it's an expensive put to keep open.





> Not actually.  There is a competitive market.  They pay a moderate smelting cost where the jewelry is not pure (it would be too soft for the most part if so), then the spread you might expect for trading bullion at retail.  But, to your point, that's still a wider spread than liquid instruments but pretty comparable to property.  This stuff is a store of wealth for a rainy day which hopefully never comes.  It is so for other domiciles, like China, as well



.

Are you kidding me? go down to your local jewellery store, buy some gold jewellery, and then take it to a gold smelter and I doubt you'll get more than 20% of your cash back.



> The caveat is that if the financial system melts (in hyperinflation, your financial assets will crash), those other monetary assets melt with it.  Gold, it is thought, would remain money good and become money again



. 

so would land, Your farmland or residential property is going to hedge hyperinflation just as good as gold, and you'll generate earnings.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> 1. I would be happy being the seller of those puts rather than the buyer, it's an expensive put to keep open.
> .
> 
> 2. Are you kidding me? go down to your local jewellery store, buy some gold jewellery, and then take it to a gold smelter and I doubt you'll get more than 20% of your cash back.
> 
> .
> 3. so would land, Your farmland or residential property is going to hedge hyperinflation just as good as gold, and you'll generate earnings.




1. I have no idea how to value the implicit option other than through wobbly scenarios.  Someone out there wants this stuff, and you aren't one of them.  To this point, neither am I.

2. Again, I would have thought as you did.  Except I actually knew about this when I was six in the bazars and shopping malls filled with goldsmiths.  Further I actually checked before I wrote to get a current price.  If you have a 1oz 18kt 'scrap gold' in the form of jewelry to sell, you would currently pick up AUD mid rate estimate (middle of bid estimates because purity varies from the label) of A$1350 implied for 1 oz pure gold.  This is USD $1269. A 4% smelt spread from formed jewelry of this standard purity (In India, for example, purity is higher and a tighter spread is obtained).  

These are somewhat smaller than your 80% spread estimate and in-line with what I was saying earlier. The spread in those bazars I was talking about was even tighter.  Compare that to retail gold spread as bullion aside from Perth Mint and you will see what I mean when I say jewelry in the form of gold is given and bought as a store of wealth (apart from being shiny and wearable).  This is for back of the drawer volume.  That price is for an Australian location where you can collect it at the door at a CBD location or get it sent to you, postage and handling is extra.

3. You can't run with your farmland.  When people are displaced and flee from their homes, how do you exactly use this asset?  These are very extreme scenarios, but it explains why gold rises with geopolitical crisis. When you have inflation as a result of crisis, that is an entirely different type of inflation where real, fixed, assets will do as you are talking about.  It doesn't have to be local.  For example, if you are in investor in EM, it might make sense to hedge a left fielder where currencies get smashed and economic strife occurs.  Many monster long term investors have some exposure to gold and other commodities for the reasons I have raised.

It's hard to value gold.  It has no revenue, yield or earnings.  Everything you say.  Yet people buy it as a store of wealth, central banks hold it and so do a pile of investors.  That makes it an investment/store just because everybody who is active in it thinks so.  That's how norms develop and it is just the latest manifestation of alternative money, but I can see the argument for some limited holding.  Fifty years of investing to come (and then some more when this gets passed to the next generation) is a long time.  Things change.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> 2. Again, I would have thought as you did.  Except I actually knew about this when I was six in the bazars and shopping malls filled with goldsmiths.  Further I actually checked before I wrote to get a current price.  If you have a 1oz 18kt 'scrap gold' in the form of jewelry to sell, you would currently pick up AUD mid rate estimate (middle of bid estimates because purity varies from the label) of A$1350 implied for 1 oz pure gold.  This is USD $1269. A 4% smelt spread from formed jewelry of this standard purity (In India, for example, purity is higher and a tighter spread is obtained).
> 
> These are somewhat smaller than your 80% spread estimate and in-line with what I was saying earlier. The spread in those bazars I was talking about was even tighter.  Compare that to retail gold spread as bullion aside from Perth Mint and you will see what I mean when I say jewelry in the form of gold is given and bought as a store of wealth (apart from being shiny and wearable).  This is for back of the drawer volume.  That price is for an Australian location where you can collect it at the door at a CBD location or get it sent to you, postage and handling is extra.
> 
> 3. You can't run with your farmland.  When people are displaced and flee from their homes, how do you exactly use this asset?  These are very extreme scenarios, but it explains why gold rises with geopolitical crisis. When you have inflation as a result of crisis, that is an entirely different type of inflation where real, fixed, assets will do as you are talking about.  It doesn't have to be local.  For example, if you are in investor in EM, it might make sense to hedge a left fielder where currencies get smashed and economic strife occurs.  Many monster long term investors have some exposure to gold and other commodities for the reasons I have raised.
> 
> It's hard to value gold.  It has no revenue, yield or earnings.  Everything you say.  Yet people buy it as a store of wealth, central banks hold it and so do a pile of investors.  That makes it an investment/store just because everybody who is active in it thinks so.  That's how norms develop and it is just the latest manifestation of alternative money, but I can see the argument for some limited holding.  Fifty years of investing to come (and then some more when this gets passed to the next generation) is a long time.  Things change.




I am not talking about the 4% smelt spread, I am talking losing the retail margin and fabrication margin.

Eg. Buying brand new gold jewellery at retail prices with the expectation of melting it down in hard times will see you lose 80%, because the value of the gold scrap price makes up a very small part of the total cost of the retail price jewellery.

I don't think people here who have admitted loading up on gold are doing it because they fear having to flee, they are doing it because they think its the best longterm store of value, I am just pointing out that it is mediocre at best, and it's been smashed by pretty much every other asset class over any time frame you choose


----------



## qldfrog

anyone following the story of Germany trying to get back its billions of physical Gold from the US fed (which was taking good care of it) and agreeing togive up just recently
In a nutshell, the US do not seem to have/own it anymore!!!


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> 1. I am not talking about the 4% smelt spread, I am talking losing the retail margin and fabrication margin.
> 
> Eg. Buying brand new gold jewellery at retail prices with the expectation of melting it down in hard times will see you lose 80%, because the value of the gold scrap price makes up a very small part of the total cost of the retail price jewellery.
> 
> 2. I don't think people here who have admitted loading up on gold are doing it because they fear having to flee, they are doing it because they think its the best longterm store of value.
> 
> 3. I am just pointing out that it is mediocre at best, and it's been smashed by pretty much every other asset class over any time frame you choose




Just wrapping up, I think.  Thanks for the exchange.

1. That's a very fair point. So I looked some more.  You can get an 18kt bracelet (just for example) on line for AUD 488 whose underlying gold value is AUD 471. So, full spread is 7.5%, comparable to a property. This bracelet only had gold content of 10.5 gms.   I have always been utterly amazed at how low fabrication costs are. Shop front is another matter but my actual experience buying this stuff in Asia is that gold is sold by the weight and purity with design not mattering much at all. The cost isn't too far above spot bullion as per this example.  Maybe rent and wages are much lower.  But that's the area where gold is mostly given in the form of jewelry in weddings and births as a store of wealth for a rainy day.  VC, it really is a store of wealth to this population.  It is not conjecture on my part.  I witness it up close and personal.  It is material.

2.   You should check out the gold discussion sites frequented by Australian gold bugs...OMG.  When the GFC came to be, gold spiked.  People thought money would die.  They weren't expecting to flee....the demand for safes went through the roof and the Perth Mint saw strong demand for gold at vault to be segregated from the pool and/or transferred to the owner.  In a developed nation which is secure like Aust, you are absolutely right that we would not do this in the [central] expectation of fleeing.  But somewhere else in the world, where you might have investment exposure, someone would really be fleeing.  They hold and demand gold.  This is the same gold as that in our (metaphorical) vaults.  It affects the price.

3. Gold HAS performed in a mediocre fashion against anything other than cash like instruments.  Like I mentioned from the outset, it is a currency substitute.  It has performed accordingly because the closest thing to a world currency is USD and my chart demonstrated it basically did a little better. USD was once banded with Gold. Gold was the standard by which currencies were linked for a good part of the 20th Century. It is a precious metal that serves as a store of value and, if things should melt, probably be the next choice as a currency for a time.  Personally, I would not make my investment decisions on the basis of historical return observation.  I'm sure you do not either.  

The Austrians (I am not one, but enjoy their view) would argue that what you have observed is asset prices pumped up by an unsustainable credit binge.  That it cannot be sustained and will ultimately come undone.  In its wake, gold will shine.  Maybe. I'm not making a strong statement either way.

Thanks.


----------



## radson

I have learnt so much about investing from reading this thread ...particularly around the height of the gold bubble circa August 2011..pages in the 420s on my computer. Behavioural psychologist etc could have a field day studying perception biases on this thread as one after another random nugget (pun intended) of information is extracted from the cosmos to rationalise a stance on the gold price.


----------



## DeepState

So let's have a field day with the shrink and get on the couch.   If you eschew financial engineering and/or the use of diversification to protect wealth then please stop reading....*here*.  

This represents a trade/exposure management transaction which I expect to be implementing in the period ahead.  These are my considerations.

Gold is a store of wealth whether held in central bank vaults, ETFs, as direct investments and even significantly in the form of jewelry which is not notionally classed in that fashion.  Only a fraction is used for industrial purposes. Extracts from the World Gold Council in relation to jewelry use in the biggest buying nations of China and India are provided below.

It is a pseudo currency because it serves as a store of wealth.  Two charts below also display how AUDEUR performs with GOLD(EUR) and similarly for the US equivalent:

The fact that these lines move somewhat similarly outlines the characteristics of gold as a type of currency.  There are many arguments about why gold serves as a monetary asset.  I just observe it to be the case in practice. Central banks are accumulating.  They do not do so with other precious metals, diamonds.... to them, it is a reserve asset, mixed in with USD t-bonds etc.

I have a fair chunk of assets, proportionately, held offshore and the Australian equity market is also heavily exposed to the currency.  I don't mind having offshore exposure for a lot of reasons, not least of which is that it helps hedge my expenditure stream.  When the AUD depreciates, costs go up as per Q4 2013.

Gold is presently trading close to the bottom of the all in total cost curve and demand is not shrinking. Whilst it might get worse as secondary supply can take its place, there is a limit to this unless the world stops buying gold for some reason.

The world is suffering lowflation.  This is priced.  There is a wing risk of inflation surprise.  I already have ILB to protect against domestic inflation.  Further, the BoJ print now exceeds the Fed and ECB will likely start printing in Oct.  It does not seem like a stupid idea to own gold outright if your only choice was a basket of currencies. It is useful to imagine what you would do to increase your wealth in world terms when all you had to invest in are deposits in different currencies and gold. Personally, I would have some gold if in that position....wait a minute, I am in the position. I would not hold this belief if gold prices were trading well to the right of the all in cash cost curve before interest payments, QE wasn't all over the place and debt overhang so large.

However, my offshore exposure is dominated by USD and Euro.  USD exposure is gained via US investments (bonds and equities) and also via emerging markets as some countries pay bond coupons in USD.  

As the ECB prints via TLTRO, some of this will flow into offshore FDI and portfolio investment, weakening the EUR.  This is what happens in QE and it is an intended effect. Check out Japan - they are the world beaters. I have less conviction on the outlook for the USD.  It will likely rise.

I don't know.  Taking a conviction stance with zero information is nuts, in my view. I am not a punter. So, I want to change the mix of my offshore currency exposure from USD and EUR into Gold for a portion....about 10% of offshore currency exposure, or something akin to a JPY exposure.

Other things.  I don't want to change my exposures otherwise.  I want to be able to own the gold, or a claim to it which is readily converted to the metal itself.  PMGOLD-ASX does the trick, but I could just buy the metal.  As I don't think I actually need the metal in my hands (arranging storage and security etc.) in Australia I'm happy with the rights.  At 1% round trip including brokerage, that's alright and in-line with bullion.  I can turn up at the door with my certificate and a form and collect my gold in the same way.

So, I want to shift some exposure from USD and EUR into Gold. I don't want to change my exposure to cash.  How is this achieved?

1, Buy PMGOLD
2, Sell EUR for AUD and Sell USD for AUD in appropriate proportions.

I now have the same effective exposure to cash, and have shifted some of my exposure to USD and EUR into gold.  I own the metal/rights.  The gold is now a capital asset which will be on a hold-to-death basis. Whereas the cash was on income and the ATO is clipping tickets.  I have FX contracts whose expected value is conservatively zero less the tom-next margin plus admin, say, 0.65% per annum. In reality there is an expected pick-up due to positive carry that would eliminate that, but let's call that a cherry on top. I have a more comfortable exposure to a currency basket which includes a measure of protection against geopol and inflation surprise and whose relevance as a store of value by investors, central banks and notional consumers of jewelry looks pretty solid.  Good enough for a central bank, good enough for me.  If all gold does is perform in line with cash in AUD over the longer term, then this will lead to an after tax outcome equivalent to a very nice TD (including realisation of gold profit, obviously better if not), but also comes with an option on top of that protects against certain extreme events whilst limiting country risk in the offshore exposures.

...all for a fraction of the overall portfolio value. But this stuff counts to me and it all adds up. One percent per annum over 40yrs et al. Limit blow up risk etc.


*What could go wrong?*

AUD elevates vs world currencies on a secular basis in manner which does not elevate gold with it; 
Gold behavior changes to a consumption item and demand drops a lot as a result;
Confiscation of gold in an emergency of some sort...don't laugh..it happens;
Change of tax treatment on any aspect;
Operational risk with trading, rolls, margin management, technology outage; and
New substantive low cost mine development.

I'm ok with that.


Thanks Doc.


----------



## qldfrog

well appreciated:
finding the AUD hugely overpriced, I moved a lot into the USD, but always been uneasy with the fact that all eggs are in one bucket that way, i also have gold both physical and paper (GOLD.asx) and I agree Gold is currently cheap.
Moving more from USD to Gold  while in both case bringing no real interest , but as well no tax  would remove some of the risk I have in any FED specific decision or at least lessen it;
As always an interesting point of view I will act on.
Thanks for an entry a bit different from the gold bugs usual arguments (which by the way i do not discard completely)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> I don't think people here who have admitted loading up on gold are doing it because they fear having to flee, they are doing it because they think its the best longterm store of value, I am just pointing out that it is mediocre at best, and it's been smashed by pretty much every other asset class over any time frame you choose




Which asset class(s)? Which time frame? I don't think you _have_ proven your assertion that gold is an mediocre store of value.

Even allowing for golds 'gold is finished' correction, it still 'smashes' pretty much every other asset class over my chosen time frame......which has now been going strong for the last 15 years .....


----------



## qldfrog

I noticed the use of PMGOLD (Perth Mint) vs GOLD (ETF);
Do you consider PMGOLD safer? I have some doubt as to the real link between GOLD and the underlying assets so would PMGOLD be safer?

Disclaimer: I own GOLD, have owned PMGOLD in the recent past and also physical gold


----------



## DeepState

qldfrog said:


> I noticed the use of PMGOLD (Perth Mint) vs GOLD (ETF);
> Do you consider PMGOLD safer? I have some doubt as to the real link between GOLD and the underlying assets so would PMGOLD be safer?
> 
> Disclaimer: I own GOLD, have owned PMGOLD in the recent past and also physical gold




For retail investors in ETFs, you can really only sell the security and do not get access to the underlying. ie. you do not get hold of the physical on redemption.  Fees are higher than for PMG (0.15%) as well.  For these reasons, I suspect, GOLD-AU trades at a discount to physical.  If I am buying gold, I want to be able to have it in my hands.  Doing so provides yet another embedded option on top of those already stipulated.  PMGOLD is also a much much larger capitalization and would offer deeper liquidity.  If/when I trade in, I will not cross the spread and the 1% buy-sell will be much narrower as I am happy to 'market make' narrow to the bid for as long as it takes to get filled.


----------



## qldfrog

thanks


----------



## DeepState

Houston, we have cleared the tower...

Tranche # 1 of undisclosed, now completed. Order VWAP 1385 in accordance with trade strategy.  Inside day VWAP. Cheaper to transact than bullion.




Executed desired volume for the day.  I don't think I would have been able to fill with a further cent back based on the transaction history.  A nice start.  Let's hope it ends well in several decades' time.


----------



## qldfrog

DeepState said:


> Houston, we have cleared the tower...
> 
> Tranche # 1 of undisclosed, now completed. Order VWAP 1385 in accordance with trade strategy.  Inside day VWAP. Cheaper to transact than bullion.
> 
> View attachment 58866
> 
> 
> Executed desired volume for the day.  I don't think I would have been able to fill with a further cent back based on the transaction history.  A nice start.  Let's hope it ends well in several decades' time.




Your post reinforced the uneasy feeling I was overexposed USD and gold as a proxy still validates what I see as an overvalued AUD, and could protect me from inflationary danger.

not good as I was probably competing with you.
I actually moved  14k from GOLD to PMGOLD and 20k from USD(ASX code) to PMGOLD, reducing my overexposure to pure USD;
Definitively not in my "day trading" list:time indeed will tell if this was the good move.


----------



## Bintang

qldfrog said:


> I noticed the use of PMGOLD (Perth Mint) vs GOLD (ETF);
> Do you consider PMGOLD safer? I have some doubt as to the real link between GOLD and the underlying assets so would PMGOLD be safer?
> 
> Disclaimer: I own GOLD, have owned PMGOLD in the recent past and also physical gold




I would never touch GLD but I do trust PMGOLD.
Just at the moment 60% of my gold holding is physical and 40% is PMGOLD.  PMGOLD allows quick reaction to accumulate whenever the price looks right.   When convenient the physical can be collected from the Perth Mint.


----------



## qldfrog

I appreciate: I fully completed the switch from GOLD to PMGOLD on Friday.
This site is such a wealth of knowledge and allow you to take the stepo back and look again at your situation: I have had GOLD for years and never thought to compare with PMGOLD.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Has anyone tried to get delivery of PMGOLD? Their redemption clauses have a lot of 'if's' and 'maybe's' or am I missing something?


----------



## DeepState

Uncle Festivus said:


> Has anyone tried to get delivery of PMGOLD? Their redemption clauses have a lot of 'if's' and 'maybe's' or am I missing something?





Not yet. However, my reading of the PDF suggests the request are in line with 'Know your client' and 'anti money-laundering' requirements.  The form to do so is very straight forward and the request for ID is readily achievable as per opening a bank account. Delivery is within 20days loco Perth and is on a best endeavours basis.

But, I've not tested it as yet.


----------



## Bintang

Uncle Festivus said:


> Has anyone tried to get delivery of PMGOLD? Their redemption clauses have a lot of 'if's' and 'maybe's' or am I missing something?




Yes I have.
Yes there is a bit of paperwork involved.
But it works.


----------



## Ann

G'day all,

I first started calling a warning for a fall in gold June 2012.  (I checked the date on the quarterly chart I put up here at the time). I remember I got well and truly zapped by the goldbugs here at the time for saying such a thing! Ahh well, there you go! 

Now for the good news (potentially). Looking at the long term daily gold chart going back to when it first started to rise in 2001 there is a long term trend line which has offered good support. Now this trendline from back in '01 is being tested again. Will it hold? Will it fail? It is well worth watching closely at the moment. Gut feeling? I reckon it may hold. Why? I think the DOW and All Ords are showing potential chart weakness which may well give gold a good shove along. 

Let's see!


----------



## rimtas

I woouldn't be rushing in buying gold right now, unless for short term with a tight stop.

Gold is falling Impulsively from a Top in the last years and looks like it is forming a Fourth Wave Triangle where the last subdivision of Wave E is missing. After one more pop up Gold will crash to or below 1000 mark completing a 5 Wave secuence at Primary degree, where a really good oportunity for longs will be.   It should then rally to the levels where we are today or, even more higher.

But for now be very cautious with metals longs, a sideways correction could be very close to an end.


----------



## qldfrog

I agree with both of the above could be up trend  now but with sizable risk past september october of a fall;
What i do takle into account is the AUD factor, I believe a fall in the AUD is expected and would cushion any fall in POG in USD term;
so I am more long than bear and i bought.
Time will tell but I will be extra cautious in a month time indeed


----------



## Ann

qldfrog said:


> I agree with both of the above could be up trend  now but with sizable risk past september october of a fall;
> What i do takle into account is the AUD factor, I believe a fall in the AUD is expected and would cushion any fall in POG in USD term;
> so I am more long than bear and i bought.
> Time will tell but I will be extra cautious in a month time indeed




G'day qldfrog, I reckon you will see a rise in the Aussie dollar if the gold price rises. The AUD rises and falls with the POG. Have a look at a chart. 

Caution is a good thing qldfrog!


----------



## radson

Uncle Festivus said:


> Which asset class(s)? Which time frame? I don't think you _have_ proven your assertion that gold is an mediocre store of value.
> 
> Even allowing for golds 'gold is finished' correction, it still 'smashes' pretty much every other asset class over my chosen time frame......which has now been going strong for the last 15 years .....
> 
> View attachment 58859




Mighty convenient time frame there  

Does that include the dividends and rents from the US Housing and Shares?


----------



## qldfrog

Ann said:


> G'day qldfrog, I reckon you will see a rise in the Aussie dollar if the gold price rises. The AUD rises and falls with the POG. Have a look at a chart.
> 
> Caution is a good thing qldfrog!



Hum Ann,
not that sure:
in the last 3 years at least POG peaks when the AUD falls:


Sorry the image is just crude cut and paste, but short term wise, I expect POG to give me some buffer when AUD falls;
a proxy for a currency edging of my cash 
But I am not a gold bug, I know I get no interest, inflation is eating me alive and this is just an alternative to cash in the bank, taken at a time I see as potentially a low in POG
I used PMGOLD and USD as these are the two tools I use for my edging but indexes should be similar


----------



## explod

qldfrog said:


> Hum Ann,
> not that sure:
> in the last 3 years at least POG peaks when the AUD falls:
> View attachment 58995
> 
> Sorry the image is just crude cut and paste, but short term wise, I expect POG to give me some buffer when AUD falls;
> a proxy for a currency edging of my cash
> But I am not a gold bug, I know I get no interest, inflation is eating me alive and this is just an alternative to cash in the bank, taken at a time I see as potentially a low in POG
> I used PMGOLD and USD as these are the two tools I use for my edging but indexes should be similar




Only since the Keynesian system began to manipulate the gold price in order to pretend everything is all okay out there.

It is worth noting that on every Monday morning this year (30 weeks) gold has abruptly dropped.  Statistically this is about a one in 400 billion oddity.  Highly manulated also around 8am and 12pm US time, for maximum exposure to main street media.

There are so many pieces to gold that one would need a book to explain it all.  This thread a few years back contains most of it but myself and the other contributors have  moved on as the only answer with gold is simple.  That is, hold physical in your hand and do not hold or trade paper because the music on the US petro dollar is going to stop one day and it will become worthless as in the Weimar republic.

My last shout for the night too.


----------



## skyQuake

explod said:


> Only since the Keynesian system began to manipulate the gold price in order to pretend everything is all okay out there.
> 
> It is worth noting that on every Monday morning this year (30 weeks) gold has abruptly dropped.  Statistically this is about a one in 400 billion oddity.  Highly manulated also around 8am and 12pm US time, for maximum exposure to main street media.
> 
> There are so many pieces to gold that one would need a book to explain it all.  This thread a few years back contains most of it but myself and the other contributors have  moved on as the only answer with gold is simple.  That is, hold physical in your hand and do not hold or trade paper because the music on the US petro dollar is going to stop one day and it will become worthless as in the Weimar republic.
> 
> My last shout for the night too.




I follow the aus gold euqities quite closely and I'm pretty sure the mon morn run is not as described. 

Avg move in fact is 0.06% up, from Open to Noon (syd time)

x axis shows weeks, starting with 2nd Jan week.


----------



## Stratanu

Gold stays entrenched in its sideways range. Support moves to $1280, below which would warn of a move back to $1260 then $1240/30. Resistance moves to $1345/60, with $1366 expected to cap.


----------



## explod

skyQuake said:


> I follow the aus gold euqities quite closely and I'm pretty sure the mon morn run is not as described.
> 
> Avg move in fact is 0.06% up, from Open to Noon (syd time)
> 
> x axis shows weeks, starting with 2nd Jan week.
> 
> View attachment 59004




Well it is, check out the first hour of each Monday, in fact to about September of last year.

It does sit on support established some four years or so ago but apart from that following chart action on gold is a waste of time.


----------



## CanOz

explod, sky has just presented facts and you continue with anecdotal...

if what youre saying is still true, you should buy the first hour and sell at noon!


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> explod, sky has just presented facts and you continue with anecdotal...
> 
> if what youre saying is still true, you should buy the first hour and sell at noon!




My point is that gold is controlled by the banking cabal via derivatives and is therefore not a true market.

The same happens with other commodities too.  The idea in the beginning was to create an orderly market but it became just too juicy for the big end of town to resist.  Wheat for example is in very short supply due to drought and floods but is being pushed down so farmers entering contracts lower on the next harvest and the big middle guys will have a big Christmas party when up she goes later in the year.

Not having a go at your short term trading, just noting the bigger picture of "where gold is heading"

Have a good day


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> My point is that gold is controlled by the banking cabal via derivatives and is therefore not a true market.
> 
> The same happens with other commodities too.  The idea in the beginning was to create an orderly market but it became just too juicy for the big end of town to resist.  Wheat for example is in very short supply due to drought and floods but is being pushed down so farmers entering contracts lower on the next harvest and the big middle guys will have a big Christmas party when up she goes later in the year.
> 
> Not having a go at your short term trading, just noting the bigger picture of "where gold is heading"
> 
> Have a good day




so you reply with more anecdotal evidense...

you should run you own hedge fund explod....you could call it the AOF...Anecdotal Opinion Fund


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> so you reply with more anecdotal evidense...
> 
> you should run you own hedge fund explod....you could call it the AOF...Anecdotal Opinion Fund




The drop at 8 am EVERY single Monday is not anecdotal.

And have you heard of fundamentals.


----------



## skyQuake

Avg move = 0.004% down.
From Sept13 to now.

Data has been adjusted for daylight savings. ie First hour of trade only. 




Raw data also attached:
View attachment golddata.xls


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Avg move = 0.004% down.
> From Sept13 to now.
> 
> Data has been adjusted for daylight savings. ie First hour of trade only.
> 
> View attachment 59019
> 
> 
> Raw data also attached:
> View attachment 59020




skyquake, stop posting facts, we are clearly only speaking anecdotally...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

radson said:


> Mighty convenient time frame there
> 
> Does that include the dividends and rents from the US Housing and Shares?




Well the poster did stipulate - "it's been smashed by pretty much every other asset class over any time frame you choose" - and so I did choose my timeframe.

And no, it doesn't include all the fluffy bit's, just as they don't account for inflation adjusted real returns?

My point was that their asertion/opinion was not backed by facts - it was an observation?

All gold is doing now is going through the unloved (by the general investing public) stage after a multi year run up. If anything the reasons for holding gold now are even more relevant. 

There's nothing in any technical analysis that wil tell you when the next war will break out or if a global virus contagion eg Ebola breaks out etc 

The market manipulators have been caught red handed, finally, and so they suddenly start to extricate themselves from all manner of commodities markets before they get asked to 'please explain'. Not that anyone will go to jail - a couple of $Billion fine here and there paid for by their shareholders, only to be compensated with a share buy back funded by Free ZIRP Fed Funds and Loan Loss Reductions. There used to be Mark To Market.......and actually selling a product, not money shuffling...those that make things are not doing all that great, after you adjust for EPS before share buy backs ie like-for-like sales per free float equity.....

The general mass of humanity is vastley more educated these day's because of the information revolution which has exposed those who have in the past manipulated the system to their advantage behind a wall of secrecy. More and more people are working out that money is a ponzi scheme - it relies on the faith, or gullibility, of the person on the other side of the transaction to trust that it is actually worth something. The time is approaching when at least the $USD will be questioned about what they actually back it with, which essentially is IOU nothings?

Transfer your 'nothings' for 'somethings'??


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Which asset class(s)? Which time frame? I don't think you _have_ proven your assertion that gold is an mediocre store of value.
> 
> Even allowing for golds 'gold is finished' correction, it still 'smashes' pretty much every other asset class over my chosen time frame......which has now been going strong for the last 15 years .....
> 
> View attachment 58859




Lol, try again. 

As always, your not factoring in the compounded rate of return from those asset classes, those asset classes generate cash flow, which can be used to purchase more of the asset class every 6months.

Try using accumulation indexes in your comparisons. 

Eg, an ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold after 7 years, where as 100 units of an index will probably have grown to 140 units of the index, so simply comparing the price of gold against the original 100 units gives a false rate of return, you not understanding this compounding effect shows you lack a basic understanding of investing.


----------



## Value Collector

radson said:


> Does that include the dividends and rents from the US Housing and Shares?




My point exactly, like most gold bugs, he is just plain ignoring the cash flow other asset classes provide. 

They will speak gibberish about the multitude of fanciful reasons gold is superior, and how every thing else is going to zero, while completely ignoring constant flow of cash flow being generated by the various businesses and land holdings that make up the indexes.


----------



## Value Collector

Value Collector said:


> Try using accumulation indexes in your comparisons.




The red and green is gold,


----------



## radson

Yeah I have a bar of PAMP gold in my safe. I bought it in January of this year. I have a look at it every now and then ...as its all shiny and stuff but alas it is still the same size and no little 4% baby pamps have yet to be born.

But apparently it is worth 2.1% more now than when I bought it. Well actually thats the Sell price, so if I compared the sell and buy spread ...I have gone back a bit I think.


----------



## explod

The usual Monday drop on the open is noted.


----------



## DeepState

explod said:


> The usual Monday drop on the open is noted.




The analysis provided is interesting but not significant, statistically, by a very large margin. Also, it is not statistically interesting from a hit rate perspective.  Finally, a move of 0.004% on average is incapable of being systematically arbitraged in any case.

There is also a seasonal on the equity market on Fridays.  This actually is statistically significant.  However, it is also incapable of being arbitraged.

Nice one though.


----------



## explod

Down again on the open.

All 32 mondays of this year still intact.

They say gold is not money nor manipulated.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Down again on the open.
> 
> All 32 mondays of this year still intact.
> 
> They say gold is not money nor manipulated.




So what do you think that means?

How much cash have you made from this phenomena?


----------



## explod

Value Collector said:


> So what do you think that means?
> 
> How much cash have you made from this phenomena?




Just a bit if an interest. Began trading shares in 1967, first trade on a thing called Exoil was a ripper.

Into silver coins these days, going to be worth a fortune soon if the world does not blow up of course.

So watching the gold shuffle of great interest.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Just a bit if an interest..




So you are not actually making any money from gold falling every Monday?



> Into silver coins these days, going to be worth a fortune soon




Unless they are already ready worth close to a fortune I don't like your chances. As I have explained previously, Holding a commodity is not a path to riches. 




> if the world does not blow up of course.
> 
> So watching the gold shuffle of great interest




All commodity prices fluctuate, gold and silver are no different. Holding any commodity longterm is not going to make a fortune.

Can you name anyone in history who made a fortune simply holding gold or silver. 

I mean can you name anyone who bought say $10,000 of gold and had it grow into a fortune of say $1Million.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Value Collector said:


> So you are not actually making any money from gold falling every Monday?
> 
> 
> 
> Unless they are already ready worth close to a fortune I don't like your chances. As I have explained previously, Holding a commodity is not a path to riches.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> All commodity prices fluctuate, gold and silver are no different. Holding any commodity longterm is not going to make a fortune.
> 
> Can you name anyone in history who made a fortune simply holding gold or silver.
> 
> I mean can you name anyone who bought say $10,000 of gold and had it grow into a fortune of say $1Million.




if you bought Gold in 2003 i think you would be laughing atm.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> if you bought Gold in 2003 i think you would be laughing atm.




Yep, and up 38 times since removal of the gold standard by Richard Nixon in 1971.

It real importance is that of preserving equity,land does too, in the case of paper currency collapse.  The canary in the cage.

Under the fundamentals of maintaining an orderly market the gold derivatives markets and ETF's are holding it now.

How long will the trumped up GDP, employment and inflation numbers hold it all.

Gold and silver are at a great price for the collectors now in my view.


----------



## Value Collector

>Apocalypto< said:


> if you bought Gold in 2003 i think you would be laughing atm.




If you bought the asx200 accumulation index you would be laughing harder.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Yep, and up 38 times since removal of the gold standard by Richard Nixon in 1971.




Have you compared that to other investments, I think you would be shocked. 

whether you bought a house or a share market index the capital value of the asset would have matched or beaten gold, But when you factor in the income over that time frame, they completely smash gold.

eg. 100 units of an index probably would have matched or beaten the capital growth of the gold, however reinvesting the income into more units each year would have seen the 100 units grow to 540 units.

So to beat other investments, the price of an ounce of gold would have had to go up the same as it did, while your 1 ounce gold bar grew into a 5.4 ounce gold bar.

Do you really find it that difficult to grasp the difference between gold and other assets that compound.

I mean you compared gold's preservation value to land, but you ignore the fact that the rental return on land can be used to by more land. so after 40 years the ounce of gold is still an ounce, but the house has grown into a portfolio of houses, So you can't compare the price growth of gold against the price growth a single house, because that single house is now a few houses.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Keeping it simple.....and that's before any fees and taxes......the misconception by novices that they are making 'wealth'.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Keeping it simple.....and that's before any fees and taxes......the misconception by novices that they are making 'wealth'.
> 
> ]




Well you did cherry pick the time frame well. But check the chart below and you will see if you allocated your funds a  either side of your cherry picked date you would have seen a decent gain, or if you simply allocated funds at regular intervals you would have done very well.

As I said you don't seem to understand compounding, please explain how it a lump of metal that just sits there can outperform a basket of productive assets overtime, the fact is it can't.




And that growth is before you factor in using the dividends to purchase more units,

1971 seems to be a date that explode wanted to use as an example, why not calculate the accumulated growth and reinvested earnings of the sp500 from 1971 till now.


----------



## DeepState

Just for interest, I had a look at a basket of goodies from 31 Dec 1991 to present day.  The period is long enough to be meaningful and the start date is the one where I can get data across the full universe of assets.  The equity markets considered are the three largest: US, Europe and Japan.  The commodities considered are the three most commonly quoted: Copper, WTI and Gold.

The dividends payable to US and European investors are assumed to attract 30% tax before reinvestment.  It was not worth adjusting the Japanese data.  All data has been adjusted to a USD base to achieve commonality.  All data has been rebased to 100 at start date.

It's a wash between equity markets and commodity markets over this period.  Commodities can outperform 'productive assets'.  They have utility.  There is nothing in the mechanics of supply and demand that prevents them from increasing at a faster rate than claims on productive assets over any time period.


----------



## explod

Value Collector said:


> 1971 seems to be a date that explode wanted to use as an example, why not calculate the accumulated growth and reinvested earnings of the sp500 from 1971 till now.




1971 is a significant date as it is when the US legislated to remove gold backing from its currency.  To learn the real significance of this check up "the Von Misers Institute" particularly on the Gold Standard.

Gold is kept as a percentage of a portfolio as insurance in case of currency collapse, ie., the Weimer Republic where unbacked money printing reached a stage where in the end it took a barrow load of it to buy a meat pie.  And we have other examples such as Argentina and Rhodesia in more recent times.

This is effectively what is going on in the US with QE and zero interest rates.  Money is continually being expanded to stimulate growth and activity.  But is has no productivity behind it so is failing and as so the stimulation is increasing exponentially.  It is well worth some study in my view as this time the Weimer Republic scenario is now permeating the entire monetary system of the western world.  And as China, Russia, India and southern parts of America unite and trade within and outside of our currencies it may be grim indeed and soon.


----------



## radson

>Apocalypto< said:


> if you bought Gold in 2003 i think you would be laughing atm.




Hmm about 8.5% p.a if you had bought and held in 2003 to now... turning 10k into 24.5k USD

haha..umm hmm


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> Down again on the open.
> 
> All 32 mondays of this year still intact.
> 
> They say gold is not money nor manipulated.




Why just Mondays? It's a usual occurrence on the NY open.........I'd bet on it!

Actually I recall that I posted something along similar lines many moons ago - sell before the NY open then buy on the NY close....depending on the general trend.

Look at todays action - up from 1282 to 1296 then monkey hammered by the work experience boys and girls at the various Fed dependencies? 




Vertical line is NY open...




Of interest is the resumption of equities leading gold again - good gains in major producers despite general market selling - the bull is back?


----------



## qldfrog

Value Collector said:


> Do you really find it that difficult to grasp the difference between gold and other assets that compound.



VC,
please see below my naive view
while I am well aware of compounding, and the fact owning a gold bar will not bring me anything after a year no baby bullions, owing commodities  always means owing an increasingly rarer piece of good

I will get back specifically to gold
but let's use silver or platinium:
rare, getting rarer every year as  it get consumed by mankind with sub optimum recycling effect.

Unless  technology suddenly allows creation of  platinum from thin air with low cost your compounding is defacto generated by the world consumption and the fact it is getting harder and harder to find new resources;

if I could,  I would happily store some Brent oil condensed into a suitcase but I can not, so the move toward rarer and more easily storable "precious metals".World consumption is providing yearly expected increase;

Technology can play havoc:
aluminium bar were once precious...And it all collapsed due to a new extraction process

Gold is a bit special as it is not really consummed and has a very high rate of recovery/recycling; but the compounding is linked for gold to the psyche: a bigger and bigger world population which in all cultures see gold as a symbolic achievement status, so every good harvest for a peasant in india, mega deal for a tycoon in china, or just any wedding in western world will see a bit of the "gains" transformed into gold, so inflation adjusting POG should always go up just following the fundamentals.Until world population peaks.

Land/building play the same game and may deliver cash every year but they add costs/work to equation and are easily seizable by all level of governments who all line up to tax you with land tax, rates, capital gain unadjusted to inflation..I mean have you thought twice about that last point?
AND tell you what you can/can not do with it.

Gold today in a printing money at will world, with no hope to ever see interest rate rising (what would happen to these mega debt) seems to me quite a sensible choice
Disclaimer
I do own properties/shares/currencies and commodities


----------



## Value Collector

qldfrog said:


> VC,
> please see below my naive view
> while I am well aware of compounding, and the fact owning a gold bar will not bring me anything after a year no baby bullions, owing commodities  always means owing an increasingly rarer piece of good
> 
> I will get back specifically to gold
> but let's use silver or platinium:
> rare, getting rarer every year as  it get consumed by mankind with sub optimum recycling effect.
> 
> Unless  technology suddenly allows creation of  platinum from thin air with low cost your compounding is defacto generated by the world consumption and the fact it is getting harder and harder to find new resources;
> 
> if I could,  I would happily store some Brent oil condensed into a suitcase but I can not, so the move toward rarer and more easily storable "precious metals".World consumption is providing yearly expected increase;
> 
> Technology can play havoc:
> aluminium bar were once precious...And it all collapsed due to a new extraction process
> 
> Gold is a bit special as it is not really consummed and has a very high rate of recovery/recycling; but the compounding is linked for gold to the psyche: a bigger and bigger world population which in all cultures see gold as a symbolic achievement status, so every good harvest for a peasant in india, mega deal for a tycoon in china, or just any wedding in western world will see a bit of the "gains" transformed into gold, so inflation adjusting POG should always go up just following the fundamentals.Until world population peaks.
> 
> Land/building play the same game and may deliver cash every year but they add costs/work to equation and are easily seizable by all level of governments who all line up to tax you with land tax, rates, capital gain unadjusted to inflation..I mean have you thought twice about that last point?
> AND tell you what you can/can not do with it.
> 
> Gold today in a printing money at will world, with no hope to ever see interest rate rising (what would happen to these mega debt) seems to me quite a sensible choice
> Disclaimer
> I do own properties/shares/currencies and commodities




If you have all your wealth tied up in a non productive asset like gold, then every meal you eat is going to be diminishing your capital asset, your living expenses will be causing your asset to waste away.

If you have your wealth tied up in productive assets, every year your living expenses can be funded by the produce of the productive assets, so your capital asset (eg farmland, portfolio of companies, realestate etc) does not waste away, 

Think about this, if you owned all the gold in the world, and I owned all the farmland, every year you have to shave off some gold from your giant block to live off, where as I just lease my land to farmers and live off the income, In fact given enough time, I would still own all the farm land and end up with your gold block, because you have been buying my produce. 

Buffet makes a similar example here.


----------



## qldfrog

a bit tweaked as you use farmland which is, as gold a limited asset, with the advantage of potentially being productive.
You would not do that with shares or paper money (bonds)!

Assuming we all start with the same amount: block of gold value = value farmland
as mankind is discovering, your actual asset if used is degrading; so do not fool yourself, at a time, I will have half my block of gold, you will have some of it but your farmland block will be able to be bought for less than half;
that is assuming no salt raising level or pollution/drought/climate change/rezoning is turning it worthless
You potentially increase your return against a level of risk
You will find many stories of riches and as many of losts in land/real estate..well not here in Australia as we are special!!!!
.
Anyway...
My point was just that any commodity in limited abondance, easy storage with no significant degradation has an in built compounding factor which is far too often discarded.And should return more than inflation.Gold included


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Value Collector said:


> If you bought the asx200 accumulation index you would be laughing harder.




you can make a 100 better comparisons. point was about GLD from 2003 till today has performed very well.

VC what's the argument about? there's no right or wrong each man has his own idea and method to make a $ can't see the whole you're wrong I'm right. end of the day all we're trying to do is make some money off our ideas.


----------



## Value Collector

qldfrog said:


> a bit tweaked as you use farmland which is, as gold a limited asset, with the advantage of potentially being productive.




you could use all sorts of productive assets,



> You would not do that with shares or paper money (bonds)!




Shares are just an ownership interest in underlying productive assets, there is nothing stopping a listed company owning farmland, or any other productive asset, infact they already due. 

My example would work just as well if I said I owned every company listed on the ASX and NYSE instead of every piece of farmland, the result would be the same, eventually my family would own all the gold as well as the companies, and we could probably buy up all the farmland too.

Bonds would be a wasting asset like gold, the productive component (interest) would have to be added back to the capital to maintain value, So living expenses would be drawing down the capital value.



> Assuming we all start with the same amount: block of gold value = value farmland
> as mankind is discovering, your actual asset if used is degrading; so do not fool yourself, at a time, I will have half my block of gold, you will have some of it ;




there is lots of scope to improve the farmland of the world, farms are getting more and more productive around the world, not less. In 50years, globally farming will be producing more, But even if the farms didn't increase productivity, the commodities they produce will go up in value and you will need to shave off more gold to pay me.



> but your farmland block will be able to be bought for less than half




I would have no need to sell it, you would be a forced seller of your capital asset every meal, I wouldn't have to ever sell my farmland. 

If some of it became unproductive due to a drought, it would probably be offset by an increase some where else, and the farmer I lease it to would bare the brunt of that risk, also I could lease it out for other uses.




> that is assuming no salt raising level or pollution/drought/climate change/rezoning is turning it worthless




If my farmland was turned worthless, your gold would be worth nothing anyway. 



> You potentially increase your return against a level of risk
> You will find many stories of riches and as many of losts in land/real estate




And gold is risk free??? no body ever just lost a bar of gold to a thief. Even Kerry packer lost some gold, due to a safe cracker stealing in from his office.




> Anyway...
> My point was just that any commodity in limited abondance, easy storage with no significant degradation has an in built compounding factor which is far too often discarded.And should return more than inflation.Gold included




Only if people want to keep paying more for it, Gold isn't like oil, it's not being used up, each year we just keep piling up more.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> If you have all your wealth tied up in a non productive asset like gold, then every meal you eat is going to be diminishing your capital asset, your living expenses will be causing your asset to waste away.
> 
> If you have your wealth tied up in productive assets, every year your living expenses can be funded by the produce of the productive assets, so your capital asset (eg farmland, portfolio of companies, realestate etc) does not waste away,
> 
> Think about this, if you owned all the gold in the world, and I owned all the farmland, every year you have to shave off some gold from your giant block to live off, where as I just lease my land to farmers and live off the income, In fact given enough time, I would still own all the farm land and end up with your gold block, because you have been buying my produce.




I have never seen any advise, not from even the most ardent bug, that you should have ALL your wealth 'tied up' in gold.

Gold is an insurance policy against 'untethered' fiat ie arbitrary money creation.

You put forward zero risk propositions in support of your 'productive assets'. So what happen's when you get a 10 year drought, or flood etc plus your holding costs like interest, rates, insurance etc? Recession? 

You don't have to shave off your gold holdings to live off - you can lease gold etc

As Apocalypto said, what does it matter as each to his own, but if making a case against holding gold then you should include all the facts, like inflation, costs etc?

Buffet has simply been very adept at playing the excess fiat game chasing assets, and he's probably smart enough to know that it can't go on forever - there's no free lunch. Although now that he's an insider it's in his best interests to keep the ponzi going as long as it can?


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> If you have all your wealth tied up in a non productive asset like gold, then every meal you eat is going to be diminishing your capital asset, your living expenses will be causing your asset to waste away.
> 
> If you have your wealth tied up in productive assets, every year your living expenses can be funded by the produce of the productive assets, so your capital asset (eg farmland, portfolio of companies, realestate etc) does not waste away,
> 
> Think about this, if you owned all the gold in the world, and I owned all the farmland, every year you have to shave off some gold from your giant block to live off, where as I just lease my land to farmers and live off the income, In fact given enough time, I would still own all the farm land and end up with your gold block, because you have been buying my produce.





The example is correct. The guy with a fixed asset will starve and die.  The farm owner will end up with all the gold and have excess production.

Except that this is not what happens.  What happens in the bulk of the economy is that production is multi-factorial.  The farm land needs to be tilled.  The guy (labour) with the assets works on the farm (capital) even though he doesn't own it.  The labourer will initially trade personal exertion for wheat.  Thereafter, he will be able to buy more wine than he can currently afford (because Penfold 389 takes a bit of storage time to peak) by bringing forward consumption with gold. Or he can defer consumption and receive gold instead of wheat. The farm owners can either pay the labourer in gold or in kind.  If labour gets less available, the price of it goes up (gold per hour increases).  As the only labourer, he has massive bargaining power.  The farm has no value unless the labourer consumes from it.  The labourer will do as much effort as he needs to satisfy is long term consumption.  The price for gold will be set at the level which jointly optimizes the needs and relative bargaining position of the labourer and desires of capital.  The flow of gold will be stable.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> I have never seen any advise, not from even the most ardent bug, that you should have ALL your wealth 'tied up' in gold.
> 
> ?




Really? I sure have, I have heard many a gold bug say that everything else is going to zero ( or near to it)





> Gold is an insurance policy against 'untethered' fiat ie arbitrary money creation.




So is any real asset, whether that be real estate or businesses etc 

It doesn't even have to be a physical thing, Walt Disney spent $2Million dollars creating the Cinderella movie in 1952. If Disney was to sell the rights to Cinderella movie and character today it would sell for $100Million dollars. So great non physical assets will hold real value despite money creation. And not only has the movie held its value it has created (and still creates) Millions and millions of dollars in revenue due to home video and consumer products that allowed Walt Disney to build Disneyland, and fund the production of the other Disney movies. 



> You put forward zero risk propositions in support of your 'productive assets'. So what happen's when you get a 10 year drought, or flood etc plus your holding costs like interest, rates, insurance etc? Recession?




With the diversification that you can get through the various global share markets, no single drought or flood will affect you. 

Rates and insurance etc, are more that covered by the revenue the assets generate, eg I get many dividend checks in the mail, none of my companies have sent me an insurance or rates bill.

Interest? I have no recommended taking on debt. 



> As Apocalypto said, what does it matter as each to his own, but if making a case against holding gold then you should include all the facts, like inflation, costs etc?




As I said the holding costs are funded by the asset, and real assets have just the same inflation protection as gold. Gold doesn't have any special inflation hedge built into it that other real assets don't have.

I am just trying to point out that the gold bugs are missing some very important investment fundamentals, and the gold bugs (along with other unsophisticated people) tend to think they have the whole investment and capital management thing worked out, "All you have to do is accumulate gold and you'll be rich".

Gold bugs (and probably novice forex, options and equity traders) seem to always have the loudest voice when they spread their misinformation, and I think it can be damaging to the people who listen to their nonsense.

Its shocking to me that the culture now seems to distain sound investment principles, in favour of gambling on forex or filling a box with metal. 



> Buffet has simply been very adept at playing the excess fiat game chasing assets, and he's probably smart enough to know that it can't go on forever



-

What do you mean? He simply buys great businesses and then uses the revenue they generate to buy more. He rarely even sells investments unless he made a mistake buying it, or the valuation gets silly.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> The example is correct. The guy with a fixed asset will starve and die.  The farm owner will end up with all the gold and have excess production.
> 
> Except that this is not what happens.  What happens in the bulk of the economy is that production is multi-factorial.  The farm land needs to be tilled.  The guy (labour) with the assets works on the farm (capital) even though he doesn't own it.  The labourer will initially trade personal exertion for wheat.  Thereafter, he will be able to buy more wine than he can currently afford (because Penfold 389 takes a bit of storage time to peak) by bringing forward consumption with gold. Or he can defer consumption and receive gold instead of wheat. The farm owners can either pay the labourer in gold or in kind.  If labour gets less available, the price of it goes up (gold per hour increases).  As the only labourer, he has massive bargaining power.  The farm has no value unless the labourer consumes from it.  The labourer will do as much effort as he needs to satisfy is long term consumption.  The price for gold will be set at the level which jointly optimizes the needs and relative bargaining position of the labourer and desires of capital.  The flow of gold will be stable.




we don't live in a world where there is just one labourer, and I didn't get rid of the current currency system in my example. I simply gave myself the global farmland and the other guy all the gold, the rest of the economy remains intact and the current money system is still in place.

the other guy wouldn't be spending his gold directly, every month he would just convert some to cash to feed himself and his private army he would need to defend his gold.

That's the other thing, people point out that other real assets have holding costs and risks, as if gold doesn't.

The fact is the more gold you have the more you have to pay to secure it, offcourse you can just hide it in your house for free, but then your risk goes through the roof, 

So I don't think you can say gold has no risk, while also saying it has no holding costs.


----------



## Value Collector

On the Topic of Disney, Can someone work out how much Money The Walt Disney company would be worth if they had Sold the Mickey mouse character in 1928 and bought say $50,000 of gold instead of continually reinvesting and compounding those funds into other productive assets.

Because the Walt Disney company is worth more than $160 Billion today, not counting the billions paid out in dividends over the years, and that's only because they reinvested profits to create or buy productive assets.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> 1. we don't live in a world where there is just one labourer, and I didn't get rid of the current currency system in my example. I simply gave myself the global farmland and the other guy all the gold, the rest of the economy remains intact and the current money system is still in place.
> 
> 2. the other guy wouldn't be spending his gold directly, every month he would just convert some to cash to feed himself and his private army he would need to defend his gold.
> 
> 3. That's the other thing, people point out that other real assets have holding costs and risks, as if gold doesn't.
> 
> The fact is the more gold you have the more you have to pay to secure it, offcourse you can just hide it in your house for free, but then your risk goes through the roof,
> 
> 4. So I don't think you can say gold has no risk, while also saying it has no holding costs.




1. I couldn't be sure from the context.  It implied that one guy had only gold to offer and you owned all the farmland and that was all that mattered in the economy.  So, I am going to assume now that we are in the actual economy with the exception that you own all the farmland and one guy (with private army) owns all the gold. He must consume from your farmland directly or indirectly.

2 and 3. Got it.  Except that he could hold it all via ETF, PMGOLD type of thing, or essentially lease off central banks spread all over the world as it currently is.  No armies there, that are visible to me anyway.  There is also a cost to storing USD 8tr in cash (whether under you house or electronically) or having to defend the entirety of the farmland in the world which is essentially a monopoly by definition over a vital resource (more vital to life and death than gold).  

4. I never said gold was riskless.  I have said it is a form of currency ('currency in waiting'), has been a form of currency, acts as a store of wealth and is a commodity.  None of that is riskless.

So, to expand the gold vs productive asset example where the guy with the gold eventually exhausts his gold supply in favour of the guy owning a vital source of production (you)... if the guy doesn't do anything productive at all (ie. earns no income whatsoever) he will run out of gold in favour of the rest of the population and, if you only accept gold as payment for your goods, you will come to own all of it.  It is just a question of time if you can protect your franchise.  No problem with this example.  It would be true if the guy was, say, retired and held his entire nest egg in gold.  

By the same token, if all this guy has was cash, the same outcome would occur.  All his cash would effectively end up in your massive pocket.  In that respect, gold and cash serve the same purpose and have the same properties.  You seem to be prepared to accept cash or gold (in some form) as payment.  This has to be so if you are to own all the gold at some stage.  It is thus money for any real purpose between you and the guy, albeit intermediated.  He should just pay you in gold at the farm gate, in reality.

For your example to hold, gold is serving as a form of currency.  If no-one else thinks of it that way in our economy, then you could reasonably argue that worn-out, brown shoes could also serve as currency.  Currency is what people think is currency.

If you are to end up with all the gold in the world, but the guy chips his gold into cash to buy your stuff as you say, then gold stays in circulation.  If he needs to convert to cash to buy stuff and, as you believe, gold is not a monetary asset at all but a commodity like others, when you acquire all the gold, no-one values it as a monetary asset because it is no longer in circulation, you are presumably not selling rights over it at a gold backed currency, and the value is essentially indeterminant...it's worth whatever you want to trade it with yourself. To others, it is worth real jewelry and industrial value only...and you trade at far far below current levels given 80%+ of the demand would vapourise.  Gold would approach such values as it become less traded and thus less of a monetary asset. It would actually suffer a form of hyperinflation.  But I don't think this has ever occurred, whereas fiat has suffered it many times. 

Ironically, if you actually wanted to get value for your gold, you would release it progressively as if a mine but whose resource base is fully known and fixed.  Then it would become a proxy currency again with time and the value of it would inflate far beyond that for industrial purposes.

By the same token, if the guy had all the rights to produce holes in the ground in all the world and has the machine called 'productive hole producer asset', but the value of his production cannot fed him at the margin, you will see two productive assets in play.  But one will dominate, the guy will starve as per the gold example and you will obtain the total value of production from his output prior to expiration.  Having productive assets on one end of the transaction doesn't mean anything for the case against gold or currency.  You can end up with everything that is produced by another productive asset as well.  Everything is relative.  Currency is a relative concept.  Gold is as well.

Will gold always underperform a productive asset?  If the asset is sufficiently profitable relative to capital expended in order to overcome the supply demand dynamics of gold, then absolutely.  Except..you only really know that an asset has been productive after it has produced.  When over 90% of new businesses don't make it past the first year, at least some choices of productive assets and claims thereon are probably a worse bet than cash at bank or gold.  Of course, you'll be able to point to those which have done well.  But they survived. Perhaps your stock selection is sufficiently strong that you can jump from asset to asset successfully as they pass production peaks and move towards oblivion.  If you do believe that, forget about gold!

Alternatively, why not pick a productive asset where you could lay a legally enforceable claim to the earnings from 1500BC.  Are more than 10 still with us?  Gold is.  How about 200 years ago?  How many still alive?  The above concepts have already been discussed extensively in this thread.  I'll refrain from adding further to it.


----------



## DeepState

DeepState said:


> Of course, you'll be able to point to those which have done well.  But they survived. Perhaps your stock selection is sufficiently strong that you can jump from asset to asset successfully as they pass production peaks and move towards oblivion.  If you do believe that, forget about gold!
> 
> Alternatively, why not pick a productive asset where you could lay a legally enforceable claim to the earnings from 1500BC.  Are more than 10 still with us?  Gold is.  How about 200 years ago?  How many still alive?  The above concepts have already been discussed extensively in this thread.  I'll refrain from adding further to it.




Couldn't help it.

The chart below is a comparison of the performance of NASDAQ stocks as per the official index versus a reconstructed index based on companies that were actually present in 2008.  Both are rebased to 100 at outset. This is an example of how significant the survivorship bias is.  It is larger over longer time horizons.  Ex post comparisons of gold vs other assets should be careful to avoid such issues. NASDAQ is just an example, but the issue impacts indices of all stripes, mutual funds, bond markets...


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> The chart below is a comparison of the performance of NASDAQ stocks as per the official index versus a reconstructed index based on companies that were actually present in 2008.
> View attachment 59237




That may be very misleading, How is it accounting for mergers and acquisitions. 

Is it simply completely excluding any company that wasn't present in 2008?

How is it accounting for take overs etc, Because when I have look into examples such as this in the past, eg someone once used the dow as an example, they simple compared a list of names and said " see half the names are missing " and they did their calculations as if all the missing names had just gone bankrupt and went to zero. When in fact the majority of missing names had either been taken over leading to a substantial pay out to shareholders ( not the "gone to zero" used in the calculation) or had merged with other companies.

If you haven't accounted for mergers and acquisitions, I think your example is worthless.


----------



## skyQuake

Why not compare against the actual the S&P ETF (SPY)?
That will smooth over the issue of survivorship


----------



## Value Collector

skyQuake said:


> Why not compare against the actual the S&P ETF (SPY)?
> That will smooth over the issue of survivorship




Is that an accumulation index?

If not you would have to factor in the reinvested distributions.


----------



## skyQuake

Value Collector said:


> Is that an accumulation index?
> 
> If not you would have to factor in the reinvested distributions.




The ETF matches the index pretty closely, so its no stretch of the imagination that the Accum index would be a pretty good indicator of actual returns.

SPY (ETF) vs SPX (Index)


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> That may be very misleading, How is it accounting for mergers and acquisitions.
> 
> Is it simply completely excluding any company that wasn't present in 2008?
> 
> How is it accounting for take overs etc, Because when I have look into examples such as this in the past, eg someone once used the dow as an example, they simple compared a list of names and said " see half the names are missing " and they did their calculations as if all the missing names had just gone bankrupt and went to zero. When in fact the majority of missing names had either been taken over leading to a substantial pay out to shareholders ( not the "gone to zero" used in the calculation) or had merged with other companies.
> 
> If you haven't accounted for mergers and acquisitions, I think your example is worthless.




Good point.

But it does include mergers and acquisitions. The companies in the higher line features the headline tickers as at 2008, wound back.  They do not benefit from being subject to a take-over, because they moved forward and would be the merged entity that survived or the acquirer as opposed to the recipient of a major pop up as an acquisition target.  Not quite worthless methinks.

I don't have the data for Disney.  But I do have it for Lehman, Napster, ....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> I am just trying to point out that the gold bugs are missing some very important investment fundamentals, and the gold bugs (along with other unsophisticated people) tend to think they have the whole investment and capital management thing worked out, "All you have to do is accumulate gold and you'll be rich".
> 
> Gold bugs (and probably novice forex, options and equity traders) seem to always have the loudest voice when they spread their misinformation, and I think it can be damaging to the people who listen to their nonsense.




No, not rich. If you have some gold then maybe you will retain some of your wealth when the crunch comes.

'Unsophisticated'?? LOL you can't get any more unsophisticated than a property investor - the whole system is rigged in their favour.....even single mums on A Current Affair can be property barons....on the contrary, I think as more and more people are educated in financial matters there will be more distrust in 'the system' as per the cash hoarding report recently.



> AUSTRALIANS are “hoarding” an estimated $10 billion “under the bed” according to a landmark report revealing the extent of hard currency being removed from the nation’s cash economy.




I think you are making the mistake of several who have gone before you on this thread, and that is making assumptions. I have equities and property, although I have just sold the last of my IP's. I've never said not in invest in them. I've never said gold is a _better_ investment. You were the one making the case for equities and property V gold as an_ investment_? I like to diversify my 'money' so as to not have all the eggs in the property or superannuation basket.

The point will be, again, as was shown during the start of the GFC (which is still going on by the way) that your (our) investments in property and equities will be 're-valued' again. Cash in bank is essentially an unsecured liability according to the banks. They don't _have_ to give it back to you if there is a run.



Over the years there have been a few most worthy gold 'detractors' on this thread who predict gold's demise only to silently slink off into the cyberspace when they are proved wrong.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> No, not rich. If you have some gold then maybe you will retain some of your wealth when the crunch comes.
> 
> .




I am happy to ride out any bumps, I would rather a bumpy 10% return over the years than a steady 1% return after inflation.




> Over the years there have been a few most worthy gold 'detractors' on this thread who predict gold's demise only to silently slink off into the cyberspace when they are proved wrong




What do you mean????

Gold is down over 30% from its high about 2 years ago, that's without generating any income. So it's failed as a store of wealth over that period, Failed as an inflation hedge and failed as an investment.

How have they been proved wrong?

and if this big crunch fails to come, and the global economy just keeps slowly recovering, even the gold bugs will slowly lose faith and gold will drift side ways like it did for 20 years in the 80's and 90's failing even its most basic job of being an inflation hedge.


----------



## Smurf1976

Holding gold is like having home and contents insurance.

A complete waste of money if everything goes well, a financial life saver if it doesn't.


----------



## explod

Value Collector said:


> I am happy to ride out any bumps, I would rather a bumpy 10% return over the years than a steady 1% return after inflation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What do you mean????
> 
> Gold is down over 30% from its high about 2 years ago, that's without generating any income. So it's failed as a store of wealth over that period, Failed as an inflation hedge and failed as an investment.
> 
> How have they been proved wrong?
> 
> and if this big crunch fails to come, and the global economy just keeps slowly recovering, even the gold bugs will slowly lose faith and gold will drift side ways like it did for 20 years in the 80's and 90's failing even its most basic job of being an inflation hedge.




Some of the housing bumps in the US and some in Europe were up to 80 percent down.  In the GFC many lost more than 60 percent.  If your good on your stop losses fine, and can get out of property very quickly you may be well prepared.

As far as the big crunch you should take the blinkers off and focus on some in depth news away from Reuters and the Murdoch bias and gain some balance.   Don't worry, Sorros and Buffett certainly do that and is why they remain ahead of the pack nice and steady as she goes.

Have an objective look at the 13 year gold chart and look at the mean, it's preserving money against the ravages of inflation.  Also objectively every few days spend 15 minutes reading lead articles on Zero Hedge and Goldseek.

Anyhow, a very good evening to all.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Have an objective look at the 13 year gold chart and look at the mean,




I see a good rise that was probably just caused mostly by a 20year period of sub inflation performance prior to the rise, so the "excellent" gains were just delayed inflation,  it then probably over shot because of speculation and fear and has since corrected and landed 30% below it's peak.

I can't see another long period of solid gains happening unless there is another 20year period of stagnation.

Like anything, really strong growth in any asset class is usually either delayed growth because of a prior period of stagnation, or borrowed growth from the future, leading to future stagnation.



> it's preserving money against the ravages of inflation.




we had heaps of inflation in the 80's and 90's and gold went no where, how was that protection?

I know after that 20 year period it has a decent run, but that's hardly a useful way to protect against inflation, especially when the productive asset classes had the same protection from inflation while also producing income.

And it surely hasn't preserved anyone's money if they bought in at the peak when you were spruiking that it would soon hit $3000.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> I don't have the data for Disney.  But I do have it for Lehman, Napster, ....




well the most you could have lost investing in those companies was 100%, however the compounding affect of good productive asset means you can gain many 1000's% when an excellent stock is selected. 

so a diverse basket of intelligently selected assets, will always outperform and cover any individual mistake where you lose 100%.

eg. if you own 11 stocks and 10 grow at 10% and 1 suffers a 100% loss, your portfolio doesn't suffer a loss, it holds its value. and if a few of them are top performers, you will smash the index and smash gold many times over.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> and if this big crunch fails to come, and the global economy just keeps slowly recovering, even the gold bugs will slowly lose faith and gold will drift side ways like it did for 20 years in the 80's and 90's failing even its most basic job of being an inflation hedge.




Recovering?? Have you had a look at the EU lately? Still thinking of their own QE as they slowly sink back into recession again. Unemployment - no recovery - even the US goose their figures, the real rate is north of 10%? China is slowing - they need 7% growth just to stand still....

Interest rates - a big fat zero for 6 years now - hardly saying a recovery is underway? 

Take out the government portion of the GDP calcs and the US has essentially been in recession since 2000.

I guess as long as the CB's keep doing the QE forever it will appear that all is 'normal' again, for the average punter at least.

Your equities and property have been riding this QE wave, nothing more, and will revert to mean after overshooting when the confidence game comes undone under the burden of debt. 

This is a structural deterioration in the mechanics of money.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Recovering?? Have you had a look at the EU lately? Still thinking of their own QE as they slowly sink back into recession again. Unemployment - no recovery - even the US goose their figures, the real rate is north of 10%? China is slowing - they need 7% growth just to stand still....
> 
> Interest rates - a big fat zero for 6 years now - hardly saying a recovery is underway?
> 
> Take out the government portion of the GDP calcs and the US has essentially been in recession since 2000.
> 
> I guess as long as the CB's keep doing the QE forever it will appear that all is 'normal' again, for the average punter at least.
> 
> Your equities and property have been riding this QE wave, nothing more, and will revert to mean after overshooting when the confidence game comes undone under the burden of debt.
> 
> This is a structural deterioration in the mechanics of money.




I think your looking into things to far, every company i own reported increased profits last financial year. Infact disney reported more profit in the first 9months than they had in any 12 month period ever. 

In my property rents are the highest ever, just did a rental increase actually. 

Is the EU economy going to stop people buying capilano honey for breakfast? Are farmers going to stop buying fertilizer? Are people going to stop consuming disney media content and watching sports? Are people going to stop having hot showers? Or eating their sushi for lunch? 

The answer is no, and as long as that's the case my portfolio will perform well over time, there is always negative things happening, last century there was 2 world wars, a nuclear arms race, energy shocks, rise and fall of communism, and many other things, but through out all of it it was a mistake to hold gold longterm,


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> well the most you could have lost investing in those companies was 100%, however the compounding affect of good productive asset means you can gain many 1000's% when an excellent stock is selected.
> 
> so a diverse basket of intelligently selected assets, will always outperform and cover any individual mistake where you lose 100%.
> 
> eg. if you own 11 stocks and 10 grow at 10% and 1 suffers a 100% loss, your portfolio doesn't suffer a loss, it holds its value. and if a few of them are top performers, you will smash the index and smash gold many times over.




So...if you happen to buy a portfolio of stocks that do well, you do well?

I've already put up a chart showing the extent which hindsight bias affects things.  Everything looks easy in hindsight.  But, let's do another round.  Given the model considered here is one where we can take a few write-offs which will be covered by the unlimited upside argument, let's look at the doyens of that style: the venture capitalists.  In aggregate, most people don't regard them as unintelligent, but your opinion can differ.

Here is their performance:




Not so flash.  Perhaps the process of intelligent portfolio selection is a little harder than quoting earnings increases for the last FY for stocks in the international market purchased from June 2014.  What matters is the next 10+ years. The NASDAQ chart demonstrates just how big the gap is between what looks obvious with hindsight and what actually happens.  I guess the IQ test results are pending.  I actually hope it goes well for you.

Anyhow, my position in gold is that it is an alternative currency which has some industrial purposes and which is used as a store of wealth.  To me, it is an alternative to USD deposits or EUR deposits.   It actually isn't the kind of investment we are talking of, like Disney.  It is money.  Money can do better than productive assets from time to time. In some situations, a lot better.  Over the last 20 years, it's a wash.  Over an extended period of time, no buy-hold portfolio will outperform gold. No franchise, except for the Catholic Church, survives that long. So the onus is on intelligent asset selection.  Everyone thinks they are above average, but the outcomes mostly don't support the belief.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> I think your looking into things to far, every company i own reported increased profits last financial year. Infact disney reported more profit in the first 9months than they had in any 12 month period ever.
> 
> In my property rents are the highest ever, just did a rental increase actually.
> 
> Is the EU economy going to stop people buying capilano honey for breakfast? Are farmers going to stop buying fertilizer? Are people going to stop consuming disney media content and watching sports? Are people going to stop having hot showers? Or eating their sushi for lunch?
> 
> The answer is no, and as long as that's the case my portfolio will perform well over time, there is always negative things happening, last century there was 2 world wars, a nuclear arms race, energy shocks, rise and fall of communism, and many other things, but through out all of it it was a mistake to hold gold longterm,




Your Disney thing relied on a few one-offs, namely a movie. And yes, the EU recession does stop people from buying things <shock horror>- 



> Disneyland Paris - The struggling European resort had higher operating costs and lower attendance, hotel bookings and special event revenue.




You will probably keep doing all right as long as the cost of credit stays at zero I guess? The trouble is, the CB's cannot 'normalise' now without causing an instant recession because of debt leverage.....

Do you think you will fit through the exit when everybody else tries to leave the party??


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> So...if you happen to buy a portfolio of stocks that do well, you do well?
> 
> .




yeah, they don't to all be excellent, just an average portfolio minus the obvious dogs.



> Everything looks easy in hindsight.




I never said it was easy, it takes education, time and skill to be able do avoid the dogs. I think the gold bugs are offering the "easy" route, "All you have to do is buy gold"




> In aggregate, most people don't regard them as unintelligent




I never said you had to be intelligent, I said a portfolio of intelligently selected assets. Lots of intelligent people do dumb things, especially in the venture capital side of things. There is a reason Warren Buffet is not a venture capitalist.





> I guess the IQ test results are pending.




I have never said I have a high IQ, But I do believe I have learned to out perform many people with much higher IQ's than me.



> Anyhow, my position in gold is that it is an alternative currency which has some industrial purposes and which is used as a store of wealth.  To me, it is an alternative to USD deposits or EUR deposits



. 

Well, I don't like to hold more than 3 years living expenses in currency, to me it's much better to hold it in a productive asset if the time frame is a longer period than that, and if the period is shorter, currency movements are a greater risk than inflation, so I want to keep it in the currency I intend to spend eg AUD. So even if I give you the "Gold is currency" argument, your still at risk of the currency (eg gold price) dropping and losing spending power, and you wont get the interest earning you can get on AUD.

as I pointed out for most of the 80's and 90's gold didn't keep pace with inflation, so was a pretty useless inflation hedge, infact AUD was a better inflation hedge at the time simply due to the interest compounding.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Your Disney thing relied on a few one-offs, namely a movie. And yes, the EU recession does stop people from buying things <shock horror>-
> 
> 
> ??




One off's??? Well I guess you can say Disney has a history of these "One Off's", they seem to produce "One Off's" quite regularly, this year has seen 4 of them.

But the movie studio only makes about 20% of their profit, and as I pointed out even "one off's" such as Cinderella still generate millions of dollars of profit each year, and has done sine the early 50's. 




> Do you think you will fit through the exit when everybody else tries to leave the party




I wouldn't want to leave, the GFC was the best thing that ever happened to my portfolio, I am comfortable with the quoted value of my portfolio going down, as fun as it is when my shares double or triple, I actually enjoy the down turns a lot more, because that is when I make my best buys, that will lead to the next round of doubling and tripling.

I can't pick market movements, but I can recognise good businesses, and I can value them, and down turns are when the good businesses are cheapest.


----------



## notting

Gold seems to be giving us the heads up on what's happening in Ukraine. It fell whilst the talk of all out war and invasion was in the headlines but now we have the specter of a permanent ceasefire.
Who would of thought


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> 1. yeah, they don't to all be excellent, just an average portfolio minus the obvious dogs.
> 
> 
> 2. I never said it was easy, it takes education, time and skill to be able do avoid the dogs. I think the gold bugs are offering the "easy" route, "All you have to do is buy gold"
> 
> 
> 3. I never said you had to be intelligent, I said a portfolio of intelligently selected assets. Lots of intelligent people do dumb things, especially in the venture capital side of things. There is a reason Warren Buffet is not a venture capitalist.
> 
> 
> 4. I have never said I have a high IQ, But I do believe I have learned to out perform many people with much higher IQ's than me.
> 
> 
> 5. Well, I don't like to hold more than 3 years living expenses in currency, to me it's much better to hold it in a productive asset if the time frame is a longer period than that, and if the period is shorter, currency movements are a greater risk than inflation, so I want to keep it in the currency I intend to spend eg AUD. So even if I give you the "Gold is currency" argument, your still at risk of the currency (eg gold price) dropping and losing spending power, and you wont get the interest earning you can get on AUD.
> 
> 
> 6. as I pointed out for most of the 80's and 90's gold didn't keep pace with inflation, so was a pretty useless inflation hedge, infact AUD was a better inflation hedge at the time simply due to the interest compounding.




G'day VC

1. If the dogs are obvious, wouldn't the market have priced this by and large?

However, in all seriousness and to assist with your endeavour, please check out:

a. the Piotroski screen which basically looks at strong balance sheets.  It is not suitable for financials.
b. the concept of earnings quality.  Search for Sloan in SSRN (research database).  This looks for over-pumped earnings; and
c. low volatility investing.  There is simple stuff at Edhec and Research Affiliates.  When you are ready to stretch your mind, check out Falkenstein.

The above have been shown to assist in such matters. I will not overstate the forecasting power though.


2. Gold is not the answer to all the ills of the world. That's unless you are fleeing.  With that exception, I agree.


3. How can you do something intelligently if you are not intelligent?  You can do the best you can if you are not intelligent, but it won't be intelligent because it cannot be produced sustainably.  You can't be quick if you are slow.  But if you are quick you can be slow. Intelligent people do, however, have great ability to do incredibly dumb things.  They also can reach into the really smart areas.   etc.

As with activities in  venture capital, lots of incredibly stupid things go on in listed equities.


4. I hope I didn't infer that you are of low IQ. I merely wanted to say that most people will overstate their abilities and be found wanting.  Whether you are one can only be seen in the fullness of time.  

If you actually are a poor investor, you will outperform some very good investors just by luck and also due to the fact that there will always be a wide dispersion of returns for excellent managers.  Just because you outperformed some doesn't actually mean that much on its own.  However, it is better to be lucky than good and more money is better than less.  All power to you.


5. Three years of expenses? No way I'd do that, but the super rich could easily justify it. It's a proportionate calculation. 

You may spend in AUD, but you own Disney which has negligible operations in Australia.  Although BHP and RIO have listings in Australia with shares expressed in AUD, their 'currency' is bulk commodities which you consume very little of.  You are already mismatched all over the place from your consumption basket...of which about 15% is actually sourced from offshore via final consumption imports and a pile more directly or indirectly as intermediate goods in the value chain to your house/table/cupboard... If you want to hedge your consumption basket, you need offshore exposure. 


6. The argument about gold as an inflation hedge generally relates to hyper inflation, not run-of-the-mill inflation.


----------



## Value Collector

notting said:


> Gold seems to be giving us the heads up on what's happening in Ukraine. It fell whilst the talk of all out war and invasion was in the headlines but now we have the specter of a permanent ceasefire.
> Who would of thought




So not only is it an inflation hedge, it's an investment, a store of wealth, a currency and a commodity, but now it is also a fortune teller.

I think it probably will tell you as much about the future as tea leaves do, And what your noticing is more correlation than causation.


----------



## Value Collector

No the market doesn't always factor in the obvious dogs, the market is not perfect, and not all market participants are intelligent investors, in fact many distain the idea of investing.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> G'day VC
> 
> 
> You may spend in AUD, but you own Disney which has negligible operations in Australia.  Although BHP and RIO have listings in Australia with shares expressed in AUD, their 'currency' is bulk commodities which you consume very little of.  You are already mismatched all over the place from your consumption basket...of which about 15% is actually sourced from offshore via final consumption imports and a pile more directly or indirectly as intermediate goods in the value chain to your house/table/cupboard... If you want to hedge your consumption basket, you need offshore exposure.
> 
> 
> 6. The argument about gold as an inflation hedge generally relates to hyper inflation, not run-of-the-mill inflation.




I have no problem with holding longterm productive assets that are exposed to other currencies, I am talking about my spending money, eg cash set aside for living expenses, I only hold about three years of these funds, so hedging them against inflation is not a major concern, 

Any other funds are invested in productive assets, that will continually be topping up my three year living expenses fund, these productive assets offer the same inflation protection as gold, with benefit of income to fund my living expenses and also internally reinvested earnings through retained profits that will see my portfolio have capital gains also.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> No the market doesn't always factor in the obvious dogs, the market is not perfect, and not all market participants are intelligent investors, in fact many distain the idea of investing.




Not many in the market have disdain for making money at any time horizon.

The market is likely not efficient in pricing securities.  That is a far cry from saying that pricing is obviously wrong.  Whilst some stocks which actually are dogs may not yet have been pushed down to whatever their correct price is, there will likely be stocks that you regard as obvious dogs that are not.

Here's one from the much-admired Buffett: "Bad things aren't obvious when times are good"

If it isn't obvious to Buffett, how should I take a claim that it is obvious to you?


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> So not only is it an inflation hedge, it's an investment, a store of wealth, a currency and a commodity, but now it is also a fortune teller.
> 
> I think it probably will tell you as much about the future as tea leaves do, And what your noticing is more correlation than causation.




Causality worked from the news to gold.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> I have no problem with holding longterm productive assets that are exposed to other currencies, I am talking about my spending money, eg cash set aside for living expenses, I only hold about three years of these funds, so hedging them against inflation is not a major concern,
> 
> Any other funds are invested in productive assets, that will continually be topping up my three year living expenses fund, these productive assets offer the same inflation protection as gold, with benefit of income to fund my living expenses and also internally reinvested earnings through retained profits that will see my portfolio have capital gains also.




It is your total wealth that matters.  However, you have segmented a notional concept of funds set aside for the next three years from longer term assets.  Both have been mentally compartmentalised.  This is called Mental Accounting.  In any case, lots of people do it, even Markowitz, who invented portfolio theory.

We'll have to disagree on the inflation protection argument.  For me, it depends very much on what is causing the inflation.  As I have mentioned to you before, inflation is not some homogeneous concept.  What has happened in the 1980s and 1990s is unique to that period.  If you insist on using that as justification for ignoring gold, I do not believe it is with strong merit.  Just because a Sword of Damocles has not fallen does not mean that it won't.


----------



## notting

Value Collector said:


> So not only is it an inflation hedge, it's an investment, a store of wealth, a currency and a commodity, but now it is also a fortune teller.
> 
> I think it probably will tell you as much about the future as tea leaves do, And what your noticing is more correlation than causation.




No.  

What it means is that those with a real understanding of what is really going on on the ground and politically with Russia are front running the price movements.  Nothing to do with fortune telling.
You can then use that as an edge, whilst it's happening to assist in short term trading on other things like Oil going down not up as it normally does when pictures of nuclear bombs going off are on the front pages.


----------



## Value Collector

notting said:


> No.
> 
> What it means is that those with a real understanding of what is really going on on the ground and politically with Russia are front running the price movements.




How have you been able to identify these people that have a real understanding of what's going on?
and how have you been able to find out what these people are doing in their portfolio's?

When you look at the market action of gold, How do you tell which market actions are caused by people with real understandings and which market actions are caused by people with false understandings?

to me it just seems you look at a market action, then make up a story to fit, If gold jumps up you would say one thing and if it fell you would say another, both times you would be convinced you know what's going on.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> It is your total wealth that matters.  However, you have segmented a notional concept of funds set aside for the next three years from longer term assets.




yes, it is total wealth that matters, How ever total market quoted value of that wealth fluctuates, and since I rely on my wealth to fund my life style, It makes sense to have a portion of my wealth equal to about 3 years living expenses in cash, That way I am not relying on selling an asset at half price during a crash just to fund my lifestyle. It's also handy to have cash in case of medical emergency etc.

It's not a notional concept of funds, its a key part of my capital management and family budgeting, I want to make sure my family are spectators in any financial ups and downs, My wife will have the family budget in place regardless of any market fluctuations, dividends being cut, vacancies at rental properties etc, without me becoming a forced seller.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> yes, it is total wealth that matters, How ever total market quoted value of that wealth fluctuates, and since I rely on my wealth to fund my life style, It makes sense to have a portion of my wealth equal to about 3 years living expenses in cash, That way I am not relying on selling an asset at half price during a crash just to fund my lifestyle. It's also handy to have cash in case of medical emergency etc.
> 
> It's not a notional concept of funds, its a key part of my capital management and family budgeting, I want to make sure my family are spectators in any financial ups and downs, My wife will have the family budget in place regardless of any market fluctuations, dividends being cut, vacancies at rental properties etc, without me becoming a forced seller.




Yep, you're doing what commodity producers do (no tongue in cheek), which is to hedge out their production for a few years so they can plan their budgets for a few years and give themselves time to react if things don't go to plan.  There are many different types of risk to manage aren't there.

Although the financial demands of my wife might differ to yours, my whole asset allocation is tilted to make allowance for it.  I would not call it the most optimal thing to do in terms of long term wealth by any stretch, but it makes a realistic allowance for the actual pain of the journey along the way, whether that pain is real or imagined.

Hope it goes well for you.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> Yep, you're doing what commodity producers do (no tongue in cheek), which is to hedge out their production for a few years so they can plan their budgets for a few years and give themselves time to react if things don't go to plan.  .




I think its a sensible way to handle things for anyone in an industry where income or production is intermittent, and subject to wide variation. 



> Although the financial demands of my wife might differ to yours, my whole asset allocation is tilted to make allowance for it.




We still live the same way as we did when I was earning a wage, nothing has really changed, we have never ramped up our consumption, we live on about $80K a year, in a debt free house, I have a fortnightly automatic transfer from my high interest account. that transfers our "wages" into our account, just as it did when I was working full time. 

My builds up in my account a little faster than we use it, so when more than 3yrs of expenses is there I buy more productive assets or as I did recently paid for a holiday.  



> I would not call it the most optimal thing to do in terms of long term wealth by any stretch



,

So far no other system has appealed to me, 

----

This system is the main reason I made the analogy about one guy owning gold and one guy owning all the farmland (or other productive asset).

In my system my cash account is regularly replenished by my portfolio of productive assets, if I switched and instead owned $2.5Million of gold, eventually my gold stockpile would be exhausted as it was sold off to replenish my  cash account.

I am to young to rely on spending my capital assets.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> 1. I think its a sensible way to handle things for anyone in an industry where income or production is intermittent, and subject to wide variation.
> 
> 2. We still live the same way as we did when I was earning a wage, nothing has really changed, we have never ramped up our consumption, we live on about $80K a year, in a debt free house, I have a fortnightly automatic transfer from my high interest account. that transfers our "wages" into our account, just as it did when I was working full time.
> 
> My builds up in my account a little faster than we use it, so when more than 3yrs of expenses is there I buy more productive assets or as I did recently paid for a holiday.
> 
> ,
> 
> 3. So far no other system has appealed to me,
> 
> ----
> 
> 4. This system is the main reason I made the analogy about one guy owning gold and one guy owning all the farmland (or other productive asset).
> 
> In my system my cash account is regularly replenished by my portfolio of productive assets, if I switched and instead owned $2.5Million of gold, eventually my gold stockpile would be exhausted as it was sold off to replenish my  cash account.
> 
> 5. I am to young to rely on spending my capital assets.




Hi VC.  This is interesting, I'll touch on gold so we can have an argument against an OT violation.

Gold is a yellow metal.  Some people like it.  Some people don't.

With that out the way:

1.  Actually, the reason why the commodity guys do it is that their key asset (reserves) is not liquid.  In some cases the revenue from the assets barely exceeds the expenses (or may not).  So, for them, it is managing the mismatch of running cash income and running cash expenses. If they had a stack of liquid assets and limited relative expenses against it, there would be much less need to do so.


2. The reason, it seems, for why you do it is a mental accounting 'fallacy'.  Your net wealth in aggregate is what you are supposed to look at.  However, you mentally segment the next three year's expenses out from your so-called (I'll call it) longer term assets.  You actually have no need for liquidity.  Much of your assets are in liquid stuff from the sounds of it.  You can sell stuff, at least enough to ride out variations in dividends and interest receipts.  

In my case, my wife (ie. "we") like to take on limited risk over a specific horizon. I don't mind that given we are in the 'stay rich' category.  However the desire to protect total (real) wealth over shorter periods of time than our full investment horizon is actually a limitation which prevents much more aggressive and long term thinking.  A financial planner would think what we are doing is ridiculous given our situation. Meh, whatever.

The alternative is to have a very irate spouse.  Now THAT would be an obvious dog of a trade that does not get priced in to the market. 


3. There are many roads to Rome.  If it works for you, that's good. You've clearly considered a lot of things.


4. This analogy is actually inaccurate for the situation you are in.  However, we've discussed it and you have your view on it.  Personally, I would not suggest you put anything even vaguely like 100% of your assets into gold, in any case.  But, for me, there is an argument for something other than zero.


5. You can put all your assets into Berkshire.  It doesn't pay dividends. Does that make it a bad investment if the price is right?  No-way.  You can consume from dividends as well as capital.  What matters is total return.  This is, actually, another example of mental accounting.  Live off income, don't touch your capital, is a spending rule that many abide by as a discipline.  It is not actually an investment concept.


----------



## Value Collector

> 2. The reason, it seems, for why you do it is a mental accounting 'fallacy'.  Your net wealth in aggregate is what you are supposed to look at.  However, you mentally segment the next three year's expenses out from your so-called (I'll call it) longer term assets.  You actually have no need for liquidity.  Much of your assets are in liquid stuff from the sounds of it.  You can sell stuff, at least enough to ride out variations in dividends and interest receipts



.  

I don't think its a fallacy, I do look at my net worth, however I understand that many of the components that make up my net worth will flucuate in market price, and so having a buffer of funds to live off not only helps me sleep well, but means i wont be forced to sell the assets at times such as the Gfc when they are selling at half price, or directors decide to suspend a dividend, just so I can go and buy some groceries. 





> 5. You can put all your assets into Berkshire.  It doesn't pay dividends. Does that make it a bad investment if the price is right?  No-way.  You can consume from dividends as well as capital.  What matters is total return.  This is, actually, another example of mental accounting.  Live off income, don't touch your capital, is a spending rule that many abide by as a discipline.  It is not actually an investment concept.




Even if I did invest in Berkshire, or other non dividend paying growth stocks (which I do), I would still want my buffer cash because I can not guarantee where the Berkshire share price will be in 6 months, if I were in a situation where I was relying on selling $xx worth of stock every month, I may find my self in a position of selling shares at the worst possible time, or at times that didn't make sense for my tax position, 

Imagine if Warren passed away, no doubt Berkshire would live on, but the shares may be depressed for a year or two, or if there were a general market down turn, my capital would see potentially a 50% reduction right when i planned to make monthly sales.

On the topic of Berkshire, they are proof of what compounding earnings from productive assets can achieve, what would warrens original $10,000 be worth if he had bought and held gold?


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> .
> 
> 1. I don't think its a fallacy, I do look at my net worth, however I understand that many of the components that make up my net worth will flucuate in market price, and so having a buffer of funds to live off not only helps me sleep well, but means i wont be forced to sell the assets at times such as the Gfc when they are selling at half price, or directors decide to suspend a dividend, just so I can go and buy some groceries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2. Even if I did invest in Berkshire, or other non dividend paying growth stocks (which I do), I would still want my buffer cash because I can not guarantee where the Berkshire share price will be in 6 months, if I were in a situation where I was relying on selling $xx worth of stock every month, I may find my self in a position of selling shares at the worst possible time, or at times that didn't make sense for my tax position,
> 
> Imagine if Warren passed away, no doubt Berkshire would live on, but the shares may be depressed for a year or two, or if there were a general market down turn, my capital would see potentially a 50% reduction right when i planned to make monthly sales.
> 
> On the topic of Berkshire, they are proof of what compounding earnings from productive assets can achieve, what would warrens original $10,000 be worth if he had bought and held gold?




1. You are engaging in a form of asset liability matching.  However, the way you are matching expected expenditure is sub-optimal for your purpose.  The primary reason why it is sub-optimal is that you segment, even if you are somehow aware of total wealth.  For every objection you list, there are symmetric upsides which are not expressed.

Your productive asset without obvious dogs argument actually works against your current practice.  Tax favours allocation to productive assets for the most part unless the asset is in run-off.


2. Another hindsight biased statement, VC. 

Warren Buffett started to accumulate stock in Berkshire in the early 1960s.  He would not have been regarded as particularly remarkable at the time and I doubt you would have been speaking effusively and quoting him at every opportunity.  

So, please tell me, what would have been the relative gains of each stock in the Russell 2000 that was alive at the time on a buy-hold basis?  That would be a fairer statement to make if you want to discuss productive assets vs gold as opposed to productive assets which have done well against gold with the benefit of hindsight.  A monster difference. The NASDAQ example provides a clue as to the importance of the difference and that was only over a period that is far shorter than the one we are talking about here.


----------



## Value Collector

I really can't see why you would be against holding 5% to 10% of your portfolio in cash when your in my position, what would you suggest as being a better alternative?


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> I really can't see why you would be against holding 5% to 10% of your portfolio in cash when your in my position, what would you suggest as being a better alternative?




Yeah, it's not an obvious concept when you are coming in from an income replacement mindset.

I'll make a couple of points.

1. You don't need cash for liquidity in the way that a commodity producer does.  You have liquid assets that can be disposed of in a click and whose settlement proceeds arrive in your account in a couple of days.  If liquidity demands are larger than a modest cash buffer that you might have and this is required before settlement, then you can borrow for a couple of days via your credit facilities (ie. MasterCard).

You don't need liquidity.


2. What matters is: having enough to spend over your investment horizon...which is multi decades from the looks of things.  

Your spending patterns will probably expand in line with inflation somewhat and gradually decline as you age before surging again in the last few years of life.  There will be a lot of variation around this.

If you are holding cash to back the next three years of expenditure and this totals 5-10% of assets, you are tracking very well indeed. Well done.  You'll need a pre-tax return of around 9% per annum to sustain this expenditure indefinitely (I am assuming 30% tax rate, but yours might well be higher depending on how you set this up.  If so, the pre-tax return required is obviously higher), allowing for inflation of about 2.5% per annum.

If you fall below this, your total pool of assets will erode. Holding cash will almost certainly lead to erosion through time relative to productive assets.  It is a very similar argument to an economy where you hold all the cash and someone else holds all the farmland.  The fact that cash pays interest is irrelevant and is akin to investing in some form of Zimbabwe currency where the money stock keeps increasing despite production staying the same. 

Although the value of your portfolio will fluctuate more wildly than the expenditure stream in the short term, protecting this with a 3 year cash buffer means you have reduced your exposure to productive assets.  You have done this for reasons that do not make sense from a liquidity basis.  When you are in a relatively strong financial position, selling at lows etc. is a minor consideration relative to increasing your return expectation.  This calculus changes if you are barely hanging on.  You are not.

One of the arguments in relation to gold apart from being an alternative currency is that it is a good diversifier for risky assets.  Its inclusion into a portfolio helps to stabilize returns in a way that cash does not.  Given that you can buy it synthetically, its inclusion does not even have to consume capital from deployment into productive assets.

If 10% of your portfolio is held in cash and the difference in the pre-tax return between cash and productive assets is, say, 6%....you do the math for how it impacts long term wealth when all compounding is considered.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> Yeah, it's not an obvious concept when you are coming in from an income replacement mindset.
> 
> I'll make a couple of points.
> 
> 1. You don't need cash for liquidity in the way that a commodity producer does.  You have liquid assets that can be disposed of in a click and whose settlement proceeds arrive in your account in a couple of days.  If liquidity demands are larger than a modest cash buffer that you might have and this is required before settlement, then you can borrow for a couple of days via your credit facilities (ie. MasterCard).
> 
> You don't need liquidity.
> 
> 
> 2. What matters is: having enough to spend over your investment horizon...which is multi decades from the looks of things.
> 
> Your spending patterns will probably expand in line with inflation somewhat and gradually decline as you age before surging again in the last few years of life.  There will be a lot of variation around this.
> 
> If you are holding cash to back the next three years of expenditure and this totals 5-10% of assets, you are tracking very well indeed. Well done.  You'll need a pre-tax return of around 9% per annum to sustain this expenditure indefinitely (I am assuming 30% tax rate, but yours might well be higher depending on how you set this up.  If so, the pre-tax return required is obviously higher), allowing for inflation of about 2.5% per annum.
> 
> If you fall below this, your total pool of assets will erode. Holding cash will almost certainly lead to erosion through time relative to productive assets.  It is a very similar argument to an economy where you hold all the cash and someone else holds all the farmland.  The fact that cash pays interest is irrelevant and is akin to investing in some form of Zimbabwe currency where the money stock keeps increasing despite production staying the same.
> 
> Although the value of your portfolio will fluctuate more wildly than the expenditure stream in the short term, protecting this with a 3 year cash buffer means you have reduced your exposure to productive assets.  You have done this for reasons that do not make sense from a liquidity basis.  When you are in a relatively strong financial position, selling at lows etc. is a minor consideration relative to increasing your return expectation.  This calculus changes if you are barely hanging on.  You are not.
> 
> One of the arguments in relation to gold apart from being an alternative currency is that it is a good diversifier for risky assets.  Its inclusion into a portfolio helps to stabilize returns in a way that cash does not.  Given that you can buy it synthetically, its inclusion does not even have to consume capital from deployment into productive assets.
> 
> If 10% of your portfolio is held in cash and the difference in the pre-tax return between cash and productive assets is, say, 6%....you do the math for how it impacts long term wealth when all compounding is considered.




I still prefer my current method, I just ran the numbers and I am holding 7.8% cash, I am pretty comfortable holding the cash, because I hold it in a way where it has a higher than average interest rate and the interest it generates is actually increasing my property holdings, which in turn will offer more inflation hedged income and capital in the future, but that's probably a story for another thread.


----------



## notting

Value Collector said:


> How have you been able to identify these people that have a real understanding of what's going on?
> and how have you been able to find out what these people are doing in their portfolio's?
> 
> When you look at the market action of gold, How do you tell which market actions are caused by people with real understandings and which market actions are caused by people with false understandings?
> 
> to me it just seems you look at a market action, then make up a story to fit, If gold jumps up you would say one thing and if it fell you would say another, both times you would be convinced you know what's going on.




You don't have to identify any body.

How ridiculous.  

You watch the action and you put it together from that.  

It's not always possible, mostly not. 

This case was a clear one for me so I shared it.  Especially in the light of what oil did leading up to the occupation of Crimea.  Before anything happened with Crimea analysts all over the world were wrong footed by the price rise in oil, Crimea was not on the agenda as yet.  Russians and probably the Chinese, buying for a kill, one might presume, which becomes supported *of course* by algos and technical and short term trend followers. It then peaked settled then slowly started coming down as Ukraine unfolded which was supposedly a much more serious issue.
Of course this could be a strategy pause on Putins behalf which is also being 'played'. But Gold and oil definitely gave clear indicators of what is to happen next and will continue to do so.  
What fricken portfolio?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> I still prefer my current method, I just ran the numbers and I am holding 7.8% cash, I am pretty comfortable holding the cash, because I hold it in a way where it has a higher than average interest rate and the interest it generates is actually increasing my property holdings, which in turn will offer more inflation hedged income and capital in the future, but that's probably a story for another thread.




So what rate are you getting? If it's a term rate then it's not very liquid is it?


----------



## Value Collector

notting said:


> You don't have to identify any body.




Then how do you know the action is being caused by "people with real understandings"? How do you separate that out from times the market moves on false understandings?





> You watch the action and you put it together from that.




that's what I thought, your just watching the market action and linking it to what ever is happening in the news.





> It's not always possible, mostly not.




Sounds like random chance may give the same result. 

the reason I am pointing it out is that this sort of thing happens in the media all the time, the market moves one way or another, and then the media forces the analysts to come up with reasons why it happened. It's ends up with market analysts just making up reasons for the moves that may or may not have anything to do with it, two days later another opposite move happens and they claim something else.

Many people confuse correlation (things happening together or in sequence) for causation (that one thing actually causes the other to happen). Sometimes correlation is coincidental, or it may be attributable to a common cause.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> I still prefer my current method, I just ran the numbers and I am holding 7.8% cash, I am pretty comfortable holding the cash, because I hold it in a way where it has a higher than average interest rate and the interest it generates is actually increasing my property holdings, which in turn will offer more inflation hedged income and capital in the future, but that's probably a story for another thread.




Gold's atomic number is 79.  This is a prime number.  Cash does not have a prime number, hence gold is special. Gold melts at 1,064 C and won't become gooey in your pocket, even on a hot day.

To continue...If you substitute your cash for productive assets and, over time, these produce a return higher than you are getting for cash, this difference accelerates your ability to acquire property which enhances your overall position as you have argued.  The assets applied to increase your property holdings can come from income or capital growth as, once again, it is the total return that counts.  So you are essentially buying more property with another productive asset than you would with cash at bank or via some sort of reasonably priced offset account.

The way you phrase this seems to imply that you are leveraging property because I can't make sense of a $80k annual expenditure and 7.8% cash exposure covering three year's expenditure that increases property via interest payments otherwise.  However, there may be another explanation that is not evident to me right now.  

If 7.8% is actually on the gross assets rather than net assets, depending on the amount of leverage you are talking about, "cash" might make sense given your ability to tolerate swings in asset value are actually less than if the 7.8% is over net assets.  

Obviously you have an affinity to cash.  It may not be the optimum thing to do in terms of the actual circumstances you are in (if the 7.8% is on net assets), but it gives you psychic benefit (that's not a derogatory thing, but a real and valid concept).  Just be aware that's what is actually going on.  If it works for you, that's great.  As before, you have considered a lot of things and will make your own way.  It's not like what you are doing is somehow stupid.  It's just possibly not optimal in the sense of a purely financially oriented perspective (although if you were discussing your situation as if you did not have leverage and actually do, I would change my statements if the position was materially different).  This 'optimal' concept might actually do worse than the approach you are adopting.  It just has a higher chance of meeting your needs.  Nothing is certain. Further, there is apparently more to life than finance - but I'll need to see the formula before I believe that nonsense.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> So what rate are you getting? If it's a term rate then it's not very liquid is it?




It's not a term rate, its a liquid cash account, I can deposit or withdraw the cash anytime I want only condition is the minimum deposit or withdrawal is $500. The interest earned is 5%, which is diverted into my property portfolio where it will be protected from inflation and produce further cash flow with a compounding effect.

Basically it's an interest offset account linked to my property portfolio.

I own 3 investment properties worth about $1.5Million, I only owe about $350,000 on them, so they are completely cash flow positive and are paying them selves off, My interest rate is 5% on the investment loan I have on them.

But I have an interest offset account linked to my loan, So I sit my cash savings in my offset account so any funds I have there are reducing the total amount my interest on my loan is calculated at. eg if the loan is $350,000 but I have $220,000 sitting in the offset account, the daily interest is calculated as if the loan account only had $130,000 in it.

So it basically means my cash savings are earning 5% interest, but instead of me getting that as cash in the hand, it is just helping to reduce my principle and interest loan faster, so it's building capital in my property portfolio that as I said will offer a natural inflation hedge and compounding cash flow.


----------



## Value Collector

> The way you phrase this seems to imply that you are leveraging property because I can't make sense of a $80k annual expenditure and 7.8% cash exposure covering three year's expenditure that increases property via interest payments otherwise.  However, there may be another explanation that is not evident to me right now.
> 
> If 7.8% is actually on the gross assets rather than net assets, depending on the amount of leverage you are talking about, "cash" might make sense given your ability to tolerate swings in asset value are actually less than if the 7.8% is over net assets.




Ok, I am not sure what's causing you the confusion, let me explain. 

My cash holding, represents 7.8% of my total net worth. at the moment I have about $200K in my cash account. 

My net worth is made up of Property, Aussie Shares, a couple of International shares. I didn't include my home (I know it's normally correct to include it, but generally I don't) and I didn't include a business interest I have, because I am not sure what I could sell it for or if it saleable and it would probably be worth less than 100K anyway.

My income is from dividends, property cash flow, a small monthly pay out from my business interest, and profits from my options account.

the property cash flow is reinvested to reduce the property debt. The dividends, options profits and 
business income go to my cash account, when more than three years living expenses are there I look to make some investments to reduce my cash holding back under my three year limit.



> Obviously you have an affinity to cash.




I don't have an affinity for cash, I just think it's sensible to have some around.




> It may not be the optimum thing to do in terms of the actual circumstances you are in (if the 7.8% is on net assets), but it gives you psychic benefit (that's not a derogatory thing, but a real and valid concept).  Just be aware that's what is actually going on.  If it works for you, that's great.  As before, you have considered a lot of things and will make your own way.  It's not like what you are doing is somehow stupid.  It's just possibly not optimal in the sense of a purely financially oriented perspective (although if you were discussing your situation as if you did not have leverage and actually do, I would change my statements if the position was materially different).  This 'optimal' concept might actually do worse than the approach you are adopting.  It just has a higher chance of meeting your needs.  Nothing is certain. Further, there is apparently more to life than finance - but I'll need to see the formula before I believe that nonsense




The only leverage I have is my property portfolio as I mentioned above, and I have a very small amount just keeping my margin loan open, My margin loan is idle, and basically exists as part of my options stratergy, at various times I write put options on things that are undervalued and I have a $400K credit limit available if for some reason a put option gets exercised and I want to keep the stock, and don't want to run my cash account to low, I always want a minimum of a years living expenses, but as I said I prefer more.


----------



## Smurf1976

Timing is a factor in all of this. There are times when holding gold will be profitable, and times when it won't. Likewise there's a time for property, a generic stock portfolio, bonds and so on.

Right now I'm holding more cash than usual, simply because that's the outcome of my system. It generates free cash flow, and in recent times has done so more quickly than I've been able to invest it into something else. In due course that will inevitably change, and that cash will go into something else. Suffice to say that from a purely personal perspective, I'd be quite happy with a broad decline in the ASX about now.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> Ok, I am not sure what's causing you the confusion, let me explain.
> 
> My cash holding, represents 7.8% of my total net worth. at the moment I have about $200K in my cash account.
> 
> My net worth is made up of Property, Aussie Shares, a couple of International shares. I didn't include my home (I know it's normally correct to include it, but generally I don't) and I didn't include a business interest I have, because I am not sure what I could sell it for or if it saleable and it would probably be worth less than 100K anyway.
> 
> My income is from dividends, property cash flow, a small monthly pay out from my business interest, and profits from my options account.
> 
> the property cash flow is reinvested to reduce the property debt. The dividends, options profits and
> business income go to my cash account, when more than three years living expenses are there I look to make some investments to reduce my cash holding back under my three year limit.
> 
> 
> 
> I don't have an affinity for cash, I just think it's sensible to have some around.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The only leverage I have is my property portfolio as I mentioned above, and I have a very small amount just keeping my margin loan open, My margin loan is idle, and basically exists as part of my options stratergy, at various times I write put options on things that are undervalued and I have a $400K credit limit available if for some reason a put option gets exercised and I want to keep the stock, and don't want to run my cash account to low, I always want a minimum of a years living expenses, but as I said I prefer more.





Thanks for the clarification.  I developed a cut-down simulation of what has been described.  These are very standard assumptions in the industry.  If you should choose to disagree with them, the main point of the illustration withstands anything reasonable.

Pre-tax:
Equities return: 9%pa
Property Return: 7% pa
Cash: 4%pa

Equities 'risk': 14%pa
Property 'risk' 8%pa
Cash 'risk': 0% pa

Ignoring other matters as side-issues which aren't important for this point.

Assumed 50/50 holding between property and equities for the fully invested scenario. Assumed 10% cash holding with the rest in risk assets for cash buffer scenario.  Assumed 0.5 correlation between equity and property.  Zero with cash.  Tax rate taken as 30%.  Inflation of your consumption basket is taken as 2.5% per annum.  You won't deflate your expenses forever.  Starting assets taken as $2.5m net.

Simulated over 40 years with 1000 iterations in each case.  If you are 60 and your wife is 60, there is a 50% chance that at least one of you will survive to 90.  If you are self-funded retiree, you will tend to live a fair bit longer.  So a simulation length of 40 yrs is selected for illustration.  It would not a wild outcome for one of you to make it to 100 and hence should plan for this possibility to provide some buffer for longevity risk.  Again, vary as you wish, the same patterns emerges.

Results:





Fully invested delivers a higher likelihood of having enough money to survive your lifespan.  Reducing risk exposure via cash holdings of 10% (or whatever) reduces your chances of having enough money to survive until both of you pass away.  

You can vary the assumptions around quite a lot (returns, risks, allocations, correlations), the pattern stands.

Cash is not needed for liquidity purposes.  Holding it may seem 'sensible', but it actually acts against your longer terms interests in a probabilistic sense.  When you do something sub-optimal, there is another reason for doing it even if it is called 'sensible'.  Some may label it 'psychic benefit' or providing some sort of comfort which is contrary to longer term financial interests. It arises for a lot of reasons, but none of them aligns with long term financial goals.  

The introduction of gold as an overlay can reduce risk without necessarily underperforming the cash rate used to finance it (some loss might actually be tolerable depending on the diversification benefit obtained).  This would increase your chances of meeting your retirement goals in either case.


----------



## Smurf1976

Something I find interesting is the general assumption that gold is a "buy and hold" investment, such that the lack of dividends is a problem. In contrast, there's no shortage of people on ASF actively trading stocks which either don't pay dividends, or which they don't hold long enough to receive a dividend from.

Looking at my own trading of gold, return for 2013-14 was 14%. Not what I'd call spectacular but it beats cash in the bank.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

yes, the EU is doing just fine......

MILAN (Reuters) -- Fiat will temporarily suspend production at its Pomigliano plant in southern Italy from Oct. 16-27 amid *weak demand*. 

Ford (N:F) is to cut production of its top-selling European car in the fourth quarter because of *slowing demand *in some of the region's key markets, it said on Friday.

The US Fed cut its bond-buying program down to $15 billion a month and indicated quantitative easing will end in October. 

Fiat reduces the number of cars (real economy demand) while the fed reduces fiat (pretend bubble economy supply) (Not that they are directly related.....)

Risk on baby!



> Since August 1, the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Bank Index has rallied 5.8 percent, while front-month COMEX gold futures have fallen by 5.8 percent.
> 
> Technical strategist Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners describes the rotation from gold to banks as "a decent message on risk" in his morning note to clients. As investors worry less about inflation and safety, they're increasing bets on the loan growth typically associated with an improving economy.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/a-risk-rotation-out-of-gold-and-into-banks.html

I wonder how the 'risk-on' trade eventuates, including the flight to the 'least dirty shirt' USD?




http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Cap-to-GDP.php


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gold is a currency - currency wars just took an interesting turn.

Yen looks to be breaking down, flight to USD....out of everything else.....?

Solid dose of deflation coming up for the global economy, despite CB QE, or perhaps will mean that US QE will be reversed?

Interesting if it were not so serious........

Interesting read - 

http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/140920_TFTF.pdf


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some action.......

The capper back at $1226 by the looks.....

Gold equities surging 4% or so with only a small movement in gold price.....interesting.

More interesting is the mini flash crashes in US equities into (and continuing after) the close.......the Fed tried hard to bounce it but failed, again?

Bonds going bidless?

Hard and soft commodities producer margins getting squeezed.....some will go to the wall.....supply reduction....

Thank you US Fed, Abe, Drahgi and assorted other do gooders......where are the markets??? Where are the bidders???


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting read -
> 
> http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/140920_TFTF.pdf




Good one 



> “The problem is not our theory; the problem is that the real world is not responding correctly
> to our theory. Therefore the real world is the problem.”


----------



## Superb Parrot

*Gold Price - Where is it heading?*

North if the AUD keeps sinking.

I am looking to buy some physical gold. Is the Perth Mint still in favour ?


----------



## pixel

Superb Parrot said:


> *Gold Price - Where is it heading?*
> 
> North if the AUD keeps sinking.
> 
> I am looking to buy some physical gold. Is the Perth Mint still in favour ?




Sure is,
and it's the best for more than a thousand miles.
(also the only one : )

http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/Buy-Gold-Bars/10oz-Cast.aspx?productId=21


----------



## sreeve

Hi all

My interpretation of the gold chart below (weekly, USD).

Gold currently sitting on a significant support line at $1190. The last two occasions the price hit this area in June 2013 and Dec 2013, the price rebounded back to $1250 in a matter of a few weeks (and then onto $1420). Should $1190 fail, then I'd expect at least $1065 to be hit.




~ Scott


----------



## So_Cynical

sreeve said:


> Gold currently sitting on a significant support line at $1190. The last two occasions the price hit this area in June 2013 and Dec 2013, the price rebounded back to $1250 in a matter of a few weeks




Triple bottom and the chart seems to have an element of roll over about it with the lower highs over the last 18 months, i don't think support will hold.


----------



## qldfrog

the way ebola is playing  may change all the nice graph analysis work for gold
75% probability to reach europe was the conclusion of a report..then...?


----------



## So_Cynical

qldfrog said:


> the way ebola is playing  may change all the nice graph analysis work for gold
> 75% probability to reach europe was the conclusion of a report..then...?




Unless it mutates and becomes transmissible by air i don't see Ebola as to big a deal in developed country's, 3rd world where people are living 3 and 4 to a room, are uneducated and suspicious of White people in coats etc is another story...the HK protest next step is a more likely POG price driver.


----------



## Bintang

Harvey Organ blog site seems to have vanished from the internet. Does anyone know what has happened?


----------



## Joe Blow

Bintang said:


> Harvey Organ blog site seems to have vanished from the internet. Does anyone know what has happened?




It seems that Harvey's blog was deleted due to a Court Order: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/harvey-organs-gold-and-silver-blog-have.html

I'm always amazed when people put their blogs on Blogger or Typepad and allow large companies to control their content. A domain name is $15 a year and you can find a good host for $10 a month or less, maybe a little more if you have a lot of traffic.

That's a very small investment to make to control your own content.


----------



## Bintang

Joe, thanks for that info. I did some googling but couldn't find anything. I'm wondering what the gold 'conspiratorialists' will make of this. Is it a good or bad omen?


----------



## explod

Harv I have followed for a number of years and in great detail he has reported the exact trading figures of gold and silver in full every day.

It became clear from my observation that paper trading of bullion was used to control the price. ie. Up to a hundred paper contracts exist to one ounce of physical gold. But that is my take.

Also clear of late, the main street media have been downramping gold across the globe.  Locally just a week ago The Age newspaper ran an article by David Potts on just that theme.

However back on topic, gold rose strongly this morning to mark the first rise for gold at the start of a week for 12 months.


It is clear to me that the banking and financial industry do not like products on which they cannot control or profit from, and physical gold in your hand is one of them.

In the current market turmoil I feel a run to physical gold is on now and is why we have been exposed to recent negativity.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Up to a hundred paper contracts exist to one ounce of physical gold. But that is my take.




:bs:


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> :bs:




And because H/O kept the figures up under the noses is why he probably is gone.

Was a bit hard on Pott's, though, his particular article was in fact pro seeking some gold


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> And because H/O kept the figures up under the noses is why he probably is gone.




Doesn't it ever worry you that the figures and facts you base your investments on is total and utter BS, is easily checked with 5 minutes of data searching and has been shown to you that your beliefs are completely wrong? How can you not want to investigate that?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Doesn't it ever worry you that the figures and facts you base your investments on is total and utter BS, is easily checked with 5 minutes of data searching and has been shown to you that your beliefs are completely wrong? How can you not want to investigate that?




Give me a lead.

I have not traded for some years, just stack silver coins, hence an interest in bullion movements and supply.


----------



## Bintang

Harvey organ made some very bold predictions in an interview with USAWatchdog in September.
See  here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwSiHBxm0c
The interview is about 30 minutes long and you have to wait close to the end to hear the punchlines.

According to Harvey there will be a COMEX default before the end of the year and by 1 Jan 2015 the price of gold will be USD10,000 per oz and  silver will be USD200 per oz.

Yes, I know  these kind of numbers have been floating around for a long time and covered in scorn. However, the point about this interview with Harvey is that he is adamant that 'the game ends' this year.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Harvey organ made some very bold predictions in an interview with USAWatchdog in September.
> See  here:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwSiHBxm0c
> The interview is about 30 minutes long and you have to wait close to the end to hear the punchlines.
> 
> According to Harvey there will be a COMEX default before the end of the year and by 1 Jan 2015 the price of gold will be USD10,000 per oz and  silver will be USD200 per oz.
> 
> Yes, I know  these kind of numbers have been floating around for a long time and covered in scorn. However, the point about this interview with Harvey is that he is adamant that 'the game ends' this year.




Hey Bintang ever checked any of the data he quotes against other sources?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey Bintang ever checked any of the data he quotes against other sources?




TH you are a broken record with that statement.

My last few posts about HO are provided for general interest.

You are free to form your own opinions about what H/O says, same as everyone else.

(And by the way all H/O's data has been removed from the web so it's a bit hard for anyone to check it against other sources).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> TH you are a broken record with that statement.
> 
> My last few posts about HO are provided for general interest.
> 
> You are free to form your own opinions about what H/O says, same as everyone else.




God forbid anyone calls out these crazies with data. Stay in lalaland my friend. But I'll keep on calling out utter Bullsh!t whenever it is stated just in case someone wants to base a discussion on facts rather :screwy: conspiracy theorist.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> (And by the way all H/O's data has been removed from the web so it's a bit hard for anyone to check it against other sources).




I'm talking about the crap in the vid you posted. It only takes a google search to see how full of it he is. Pick a figure he talks about and check it. They are all wrong. Shouldn't that pretty much discredit him?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> God forbid anyone calls out these crazies with data. Stay in lalaland my friend. But I'll keep on calling out utter Bullsh!t whenever it is stated just in case someone wants to base a discussion on facts rather :screwy: conspiracy theorist.




Stay calm and be happy TH.
All the crazy data has been deleted and expunged.


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm talking about the crap in the vid you posted. It only takes a google search to see how full of it he is. Pick a figure he talks about and check it. They are all wrong. Shouldn't that pretty much discredit him?




I am not responsible for the content of the video and I did not advocate HO's position in any way.
Like I said everyone is free to have their own opinion about it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> I am not responsible for the content of the video and I did not advocate HO's position in any way.
> Like I said everyone is free to have their own opinion about it.




That is why I asked,



Trembling Hand said:


> Hey Bintang ever checked any of the data he quotes against other sources?




Since you posted something that is factually wrong I wanted to know your opinion of it. So what is your viewpoint?


----------



## Bintang

Trembling Hand said:


> That is why I asked,
> 
> Since you posted something that is factually wrong I wanted to know your opinion of it. So what is your viewpoint?




Apart from the whole thing what specific facts (as distinct from opinions) are factually wrong?

As to my opinion, I think that HO's prediction of a COMEX default, a gold price of $10,000/oz and a silver price of $200/oz this year has set himself up to be hugely discredited if the prediction proves wrong.

So we do not need to argue about whose facts are right or wrong. Lets' just wait and see - there is less than 3 months to go.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bintang said:


> Apart from the whole thing what specific facts (as distinct from opinions) are factually wrong?




Well in the first 3 min of that vid

The 1;100 paper to real stuff is BS as per here,




that is only 1000 tonne. And that is if you take the incorrect view that they are all directional bets (they are not)

How much China imports, BS and its been falling all year since the government has cracked down on corruption. Which is a fair bet that it was coming straight back out of china in the back of a truck to be cashed in for $.


----------



## Smurf1976

Bintang said:


> As to my opinion, I think that HO's prediction of a COMEX default, a gold price of $10,000/oz and a silver price of $200/oz this year has set himself up to be hugely discredited if the prediction proves wrong.




Predictions and forecasts. If there's one thing I've learned about them it's this. Getting the "what" right is the easy bit and many do manage to do it. It's the "when" aspect that usually goes wrong, since there's always something unforeseen that wrecks the timing.

It's not rocket science to extrapolate a trend, if you've got accurate data, and conclude the "what" aspect if nothing changes. But I was reading this stuff 12 year ago, and back then few foresaw that within a few years practically nobody would still be using a film camera and Kodak would end up bankrupt. Film was, of course, one of the main uses of silver and thus far there has been no default there.

Time will tell, we've only got to wait 11 weeks, but a default _this year_ seems unlikely to me.


----------



## zac

Bintang said:


> I think that HO's prediction of a COMEX default, a gold price of $10,000/oz and a silver price of $200/oz this year has set himself up to be hugely discredited if the prediction proves wrong.




I love how people can make calls like this without backing it up.
ie what do they believe is going to happen in the market to make the price drive up that high.

The thing about sensational calls like that, is that it gives people notoriety. Im sure lots of UFOlogists make some sensational claims because people are now listening to them.

If you consider what it would take to get precious metals to those levels in such a short time horizon, I guess id better build my bunker real fast.


----------



## qldfrog

zac said:


> I love how people can make calls like this without backing it up.
> ie what do they believe is going to happen in the market to make the price drive up that high.
> 
> The thing about sensational calls like that, is that it gives people notoriety. Im sure lots of UFOlogists make some sensational claims because people are now listening to them.
> 
> If you consider what it would take to get precious metals to those levels in such a short time horizon, I guess id better build my bunker real fast.



maybe not that price but today may see the start of the rise as panic seems to be in: wait and see, aussies being ever optimists, I might have a chance to off load some of my last few shares


----------



## Bintang

Smurf1976 said:


> Predictions and forecasts. If there's one thing I've learned about them it's this. Getting the "what" right is the easy bit and many do manage to do it. *It's the "when" aspect *that usually goes wrong, since there's always something unforeseen that wrecks the timing.
> 
> Time will tell, we've only got to wait 11 weeks, but a default _this year_ seems unlikely to me.




Smurf, this is precisely the reason why I posted the HO interview. The numbers he talks about, the suggestion of a COMEX default etc have all been bandied around for a long time. The extraordinary thing about the interview is that HO goes out on a limb and in response to the  *"when"* question says categorically it will be *"this year"*.

What I like about predictions and forecasts is the fun of watching what really happens. There could be a very big egg heading in the direction of HO's face.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Gold broke support level in the last few hours.


----------



## DeepState

Wysiwyg said:


> Gold broke support level in the last few hours.




Fell on BoJ announcement and then hit a pile of stops at around 6:30pm AEDT.  I find it weird that this would occur with a step-up of QE and a material acceleration of growth in BoJ balance sheet size.  But that's in USD. 

It clearly took the market by surprise, rallying the JPN equity market and weakening the currency.  USD climbed against most currencies on announcement as would be expected (except against GBP, which is on a clearly tightening path).  This pushed the price of gold down in USD.  When the stops were hit in gold, a few currencies moved at the same time towards USD weakness.  These moves were not as sharp as for gold in USD.  I do not see an obvious catalyst for these movements other than hitting stops and making portfolio shifts as would occur if an investor was holding gold with an alternative numeraire in mind (like I do). USD weakness does not seem to be a reasonable result of weaker than expected retail results in Europe that surrounded these activities.

In terms of JPY, gold fell about 2% vs USD over the reaction time from BoJ announcement.  The JPY depreciated by roughly the same amount.  About half the fall in gold vs USD was clearly stops.  So the most obvious play, involving gold which is to buy Gold in JPY, was in the right direction but more muted than I would have thought.  Further, depreciation of JPY vs USD and GBP performed as expected.

QE/LSAP is accelerating, not declining.  Japan is going vertical.


----------



## skyQuake

DeepState said:


> QE/LSAP is accelerating, not declining.  Japan is going vertical.




Vertical indeed. Someone must have been caught short, nikkei has been absolutely flying!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

DeepState said:


> I find it weird that this would occur with a step-up of QE and a material acceleration of growth in BoJ balance sheet size.
> .........
> QE/LSAP is accelerating, not declining.  Japan is going vertical.




Doesn't seem to have the slightest co-incidence with the end of US QE does it now??

We/they are in uncharted territory, the norms don't apply?

There won't be any interest rate rises by anyone - we/they could already be in reccession?

Japan is finished. 40c in the dollar is borrowed. 650% total debt/gdp..........GPIF loses it all in the next sell off....

http://fortune.com/2014/10/31/japan-monetary-stimulus-debt/

China has an interest bill in the Trillions.......property crashing

US unfunded liabilities is about $100Trillion.....who cares?

Global derivatives (playthings bought on margin ect) exposure is something like $400Trillion 

As Doc Neeson sang - "This is it folks, over the top"...................(what song??)


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Global derivatives (playthings bought on margin ect) exposure is something like $400Trillion




Got a source?


----------



## Buckfont

Uncle Festivus said:


> Doesn't seem to have the slightest co-incidence with the end of US QE does it now??
> 
> We/they are in uncharted territory, the norms don't apply?
> 
> There won't be any interest rate rises by anyone - we/they could already be in reccession?
> 
> Japan is finished. 40c in the dollar is borrowed. 650% total debt/gdp..........GPIF loses it all in the next sell off....
> 
> http://fortune.com/2014/10/31/japan-monetary-stimulus-debt/
> 
> China has an interest bill in the Trillions.......property crashing
> 
> US unfunded liabilities is about $100Trillion.....who cares?
> 
> Global derivatives (playthings bought on margin ect) exposure is something like $400Trillion
> 
> As Doc Neeson sang - "This is it folks, over the top"...................(what song??)




'Take a Long Line'.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LdZAK2Rfkg


----------



## skyQuake

For whats it worth, i believe gold has found a temp low. 
May even develope into a false brk (of the lows)


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> For whats it worth, i believe gold has found a temp low.
> May even develope into a false brk (of the lows)




Agree, maybe some short covering up into the break....


----------



## DeepState

Uncle Festivus said:


> Doesn't seem to have the slightest co-incidence with the end of US QE does it now??
> 
> We/they are in uncharted territory, the norms don't apply?
> 
> There won't be any interest rate rises by anyone - we/they could already be in reccession?
> 
> Japan is finished. 40c in the dollar is borrowed. 650% total debt/gdp..........GPIF loses it all in the next sell off....
> 
> 
> http://fortune.com/2014/10/31/japan-monetary-stimulus-debt/




As mentioned, US end of QE as with GB with upward expected trajectory of future official rate paths led JPY to depreciate most against these currencies on announcement of this development.

It may also be related in a longer term sense that taper and weakening JPY did not produce sufficiently improved circumstances in Japan which then required additional action to be undertaken.

Japan is in uncharted waters.  It is breaking all the standard rules that might be applied in a more free flowing and individualistic society.  But it is not.  However, I believe they are now "all-in".  This is pretty much crash or crash through.  It is likely they are in the exact scenario that Larry Summers was talking about when referring to Secular Stagnation.  From what I can tell, Japan is the poster child.  Further, in seeking to drive through this, it is pressing the brakes (serious problems in microeconomic reform) whilst jamming the accelerator (BoJ, GPIF, Government spending) and dragging along an anchor (huge debt which is unproductive).  Yet it holds.  Ask yourself why.  Ask yourself what it would take to break it.  Why is Japan not seeing bonfires of JPY in Rappongi?

Watch for this.  Does inflation rise along with increased new fixed capital expenditure?  That would be good. It would provide some semblance of a platform from which to get itself on the straight and narrow. It would be helpful if BoJ were able to engineer a near zero and flat government curve to help things along.  It can do this.  If you observe inflation rising without lots of positive stuff going on...stand back a bit....no, further back.



Uncle Festivus said:


> China has an interest bill in the Trillions.......property crashing
> 
> US unfunded liabilities is about $100Trillion.....who cares?
> 
> Global derivatives (playthings bought on margin ect) exposure is something like $400Trillion
> 
> As Doc Neeson sang - "This is it folks, over the top"...................(what song??)




I'll leave this to others more musically inclined.


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Agree, maybe some short covering up into the break....




End of the month settlements. Check."harvy organ, per silverdoctors" 

its all paper and that is why I love physical.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Got a source?




_The report shows that JPMorgan’s holding company, with (just) $2.5 trillion in assets, has over $68 trillion in notional derivatives._

_Notional derivatives increased $6.1 trillion, or 2.7%, to $236.8 trillion_

http://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/dq214.pdf

Note graph 1 - the big boy's have found a new toy?

In fact I was probably too conservative - some estimates put it at over $1.5Q notional.

Obviously the key word is 'notional' although the point being that there is leverage at play right through the system, this being just one part. 

Getting 'real' again - to me it looks like the 'bang for buck' factor on leveraged stock buying is running out of steam, and despite the vertical recovery in stocks another correction is very close? But will the CB's be able to continually save the markets?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> _The report shows that JPMorgan’s holding company, with (just) $2.5 trillion in assets, has over $68 trillion in notional derivatives._
> 
> _Notional derivatives increased $6.1 trillion, or 2.7%, to $236.8 trillion_
> 
> http://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/dq214.pdf
> 
> Note graph 1 - the big boy's have found a new toy?
> 
> In fact I was probably too conservative - some estimates put it at over $1.5Q notional.
> 
> Obviously the key word is 'notional' although the point being that there is leverage at play right through the system, this being just one part.




As always you cannot build a good conspiracy theory with maths. You guys always do the 2 + (-2) = 4 

but the maths is 2 - 2 = 0

Tell me Unc if I'm long the Dec 3 years and short Mar 3 years what is my exposure?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> As always you cannot build a good conspiracy theory with maths. You guys always do the 2 + (-2) = 4
> 
> but the maths is 2 - 2 = 0
> 
> Tell me Unc if I'm long the Dec 3 years and short Mar 3 years what is my exposure?




I'm sure the traders and managers at Bear Stearns would like to know the answer coz they too thought it was a zero sum game, but found out the hard way that it wasn't??

All it needs is a IR swap hiccup and the NCCE will explode again......

Warren hates them too....

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/derivative-risks.asp


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm sure the traders and managers at Bear Stearns would like to know the answer coz they too thought it was a zero sum game, but found out the hard way that it wasn't??
> 
> All it needs is a IR swap hiccup and the NCCE will explode again......




You are not answering the question that directly contradicts your data. It has nothing to do with a zero sum game. But I would expect nothing less from a gold bug Unc.  

Step 1 Get some figures
Step 2 Do not investigate what they are (very important)
Step 3 Add them all up in a totally incorrect way to make them look scary even though they are totally BS
Step 4 Hang on to your precious Confirmation bias
Step 5 Bring them out ever time the world doesn't fit.




Uncle Festivus said:


> Warren hates them too....
> 
> http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/derivative-risks.asp




Ha! Didn't he place a huge derivative bet on the S&P500 in 08?


----------



## DeepState

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Didn't he place a huge derivative bet on the S&P500 in 08?




The largest holding in the BRK-US portfolio is Wells Fargo.  Its gross notional on interest rate derivatives not considered as hedges was USD 4 trillion.....there are others. For a guy who purportedly hates derivatives, it sure is odd that the biggest holding in his portfolio is a company whose gross derivatives exposures approximate a quarter of US economy.


----------



## pixel

Apparently, the price of gold is forming a particular chart pattern, known to T/A insiders as "TVC":

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/529464332107911169/photo/1


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> The largest holding in the BRK-US portfolio is Wells Fargo.  Its gross notional on interest rate derivatives not considered as hedges was USD 4 trillion.....there are others. For a guy who purportedly hates derivatives, it sure is odd that the biggest holding in his portfolio is a company whose gross derivatives exposures approximate a quarter of US economy.




Buffet has no problem with derivatives, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the biggest insurance business in the world, and insurance is basically a derivative business.

Buffet also sells a whole heap of long dated put options, I think he see them as no different than being paid to have a buy order sitting in the market on the stocks and market he likes or has judged to be mispriced in his favour. 

I think when buffet talks about derivatives being bad, he is meaning that they are dangerous because it allows you to leverage up so much, and you can be wiped out by being over leveraged. But when he sells put options on $1billion of stock, the fact he has $40Billion cash and wouldn't have a problem taking the stock makes it a lot different to a firm that uses their $10 Million capital to go long or short on a derivative with $100 Million exposure.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> You are not answering the question that directly contradicts your data. It has nothing to do with a zero sum game. But I would expect nothing less from a gold bug Unc.
> 
> Step 1 Get some figures
> Step 2 Do not investigate what they are (very important)
> Step 3 Add them all up in a totally incorrect way to make them look scary even though they are totally BS
> Step 4 Hang on to your precious Confirmation bias
> Step 5 Bring them out ever time the world doesn't fit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ha! Didn't he place a huge derivative bet on the S&P500 in 08?




I am not following you. I have quoted notional from the OCC, unless you think they are wrong too? The other figures are notional estimates by various people. So you think all is fine & dandy with the likes of JPM and their notional exposure?

Would you like to offer a view as to how all this will end up?


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> Buffet has no problem with derivatives, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the biggest insurance business in the world, and insurance is basically a derivative business.
> 
> Buffet also sells a whole heap of long dated put options, I think he see them as no different than being paid to have a buy order sitting in the market on the stocks and market he likes or has judged to be mispriced in his favour.
> 
> I think when buffet talks about derivatives being bad, he is meaning that they are dangerous because it allows you to leverage up so much, and you can be wiped out by being over leveraged. But when he sells put options on $1billion of stock, the fact he has $40Billion cash and wouldn't have a problem taking the stock makes it a lot different to a firm that uses their $10 Million capital to go long or short on a derivative with $100 Million exposure.




I don't think for a minute that Buffett is against derivatives carte blanche.  I raise the example of Wells Fargo as it is the most significant counter-argument when observed on the basis of gross notional. It highlights that a phrase like financial WMD implying they (derivatives) are just disasters waiting to happen is overly generalizing his view.  

Buffett is absolutely in the derivatives business. His concern is about misuse.  On that, he is obviously right.

On the details, Buffett has actually sold gross notional on the index put options (over four indices) of $32bn.  Furthermore, he has undertaken CDS swaps with maximum loss of $8bn.  These are not generally collateralized.  To your example, it is technically possible for BRK to bankrupt because of large catastrophe losses (where retentions go into the multi-billions) mixing in with adverse movements in derivatives as above.  The likelihood of that, however, is pretty darn remote.  Still, it isn't zero.  

The super-senior tranches on ABS related securities on the balance sheets of now defunct/absorbed investment banks were thought to be bullet proof too, until they weren't.  I don't think Warren is pushing his balance sheet quite as hard as the IBs were though.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I am not following you. I have quoted notional from the OCC, unless you think they are wrong too? The other figures are notional estimates by various people. So you think all is fine & dandy with the likes of JPM and their notional exposure?




Yes the way you have used them is *absolutely wrong *because you don't understand what you are quoting. That is my point yet again. You read the headline number and make the worst assumption based on nothing more than fear and hope of disaster. Sure in one way they are correct figures but you cannot actually read much in to them.

These figures cannot be used to make statements like this,



Uncle Festivus said:


> _The report shows that JPMorgan’s holding company, with (just) $2.5 trillion in assets, has over $68 trillion in notional derivatives._




They have simply done this,

(Total number of current contracts open long X contract value) + (total number of current contracts open short X contract value) = value of derivatives.

That is how you get your scary number. But it is not the actual value. Just above the bit you cherry picked on page 9 to get your scary figures is this,



> Changes in notional amounts are generally reasonable reflections of business activity, and therefore can provide insight into potential revenue and operational issues. *However, the notional amount of derivative contracts does not provide a useful measure of either market or credit risks.*




The reason these values are rubbish is because most are arbs where the real value is like I said 2-2 = 0 (in reality when they are opened they are 2-1.99999998 = 0.0000002)

So take a simple 2-YEAR/10-YEAR CURVE trade. (page 5 here)




To get the _notional derivatives_ value you do this,

448 2-year short times contract value (448 * $200,000 = 89,600,000 )
100 10-year long times contract value (100 * $100,000 = 10,000,000 )

Notional derivatives value = $99,600,000 Whooooo looks like a big scary number hey? But we are talking $10,000 move per basis point per side and where one side gain is robbed by the other sides loss. There is nothing here. If the value of these two sided trades moves more than 0.1% per day we are talking exciting times.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> On the details, Buffett has actually sold gross notional on the index put options (over four indices) of $32bn.  Furthermore, he has undertaken CDS swaps with maximum loss of $8bn.  These are not generally collateralized.  To your example, it is technically possible for BRK to bankrupt because of large catastrophe losses (where retentions go into the multi-billions) mixing in with adverse movements in derivatives as above.  The likelihood of that, however, is pretty darn remote.  Still, it isn't zero.
> 
> .




nothing is zero risk, but buffet could pay out those in cash today even at the full 100% loss, Berkshire has nearly 40 Billion reserves, not to mention that the bulk of the large ones aren't maturing till between 2017 and 2021. And for there to be a 100% loss every company in the index would have to go to zero.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> nothing is zero risk, but buffet could pay out those in cash today even at the full 100% loss, Berkshire has nearly 40 Billion reserves, not to mention that the bulk of the large ones aren't maturing till between 2017 and 2021. And for there to be a 100% loss every company in the index would have to go to zero.




BRK is essentially a listed, levered, managed fund which has a bunch of listed stocks and a bunch of other investments, including an insurance business.

The total assets, with mark to market holdings for listed securities was $504bn. PPE, investments in rail etc are all subject to impairment charges. Fair value reporting for these would have about a $5bn upwards shift, primarily for the rail etc. assets. The liabilities on balance sheet were $257bn.  These do not include full notional value of derivatives of course, which are contingent. On the liquidity side, they hold cash and equivalents of $49bn which all sounds great until you consider offsetting short term borrowings of a similar nature of $25bn.  

Doesn't look quite so bulletproof when the financials are actually considered. 

It would not require anything like a 100% fall in market values to move the balance sheet into insolvency.  Still, the chances are not exactly high but they are far from theoretical.  Further, the interest burden is low so cashflow insolvency would not necessarily be an immediate problem even if the head entity is trading at negative equity....pity for the shareholders though.

Nothing is zero risk.  However, BRK is at a higher level of risk than some seem to imagine given the statistics some bring to bear.  In the event BRK suffers gross impairment to its balance sheet, something big has gone wrong. Gold will probably still be standing and have an increased degree of purchasing power than a BRK stock. Before we get into it again, this is different to saying gold will outperform BRK over the next millennium.  BRK is in the insurance business.  So is gold.


----------



## DeepState

Trembling Hand said:


> Notional derivatives value = $99,600,000 Whooooo looks like a big scary number hey? But we are talking $10,000 move per basis point per side and where one side gain is robbed by the other sides loss. There is nothing here. If the value of these two sided trades moves more than 0.1% per day we are talking exciting times.




And then there are the ISDA master netting agreements and ongoing moves towards further collateralization.  Plus there are agreements not to use credit events to pull derivatives contracts amongst the major banks and thus prevent adding fuel to the fire causing a liquidity event on top of a solvency event.  

Lehman fell over with leverage of around 100x with illiquids on balance sheets that could not be adequately hedged or used as collateral when the going got tough.  JPM is 10x leveraged and has a stack of liquidity.  The exposure to derivatives is less than 5% of gross notional after allowance for netting. To your point.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes the way you have used them is *absolutely wrong *because you don't understand what you are quoting. That is my point yet again. You read the headline number and make the worst assumption based on nothing more than fear and hope of disaster. Sure in one way they are correct figures but you cannot actually read much in to them.




All taken on board, thanks for the info, although I do understand the terms. The point that is trying to be made, and it should/could have been put forward better, is that with these instruments all is fine until the status equilibrium is tested, perhaps by a counterparty with problems in other areas. 

(For others info....)


> Credit risk in derivatives differs from credit risk in loans due to the *more uncertain nature of the potential credit exposure*. With a funded loan, the amount at risk is the amount advanced to the borrower. The credit risk is unilateral; the bank faces the credit exposure of the borrower.
> 
> However, in most derivatives transactions, such as swaps (which make up the bulk of bank derivative contracts), the credit exposure is bilateral. Each party to the contract may (and, if the contract has a long enough tenor, probably will) have a current credit exposure to the other party at various points in time over the contract’s life.
> 
> Moreover, because the credit exposure is a function of movements in market factors, banks do not know, and can only estimate, how much the value of the derivative contract might be at various points of time in the future.
> 
> *Measuring credit exposure in derivative contracts involves identifying those contracts where a bank would lose value if the counterparty to a contract defaulted today.*




The next premise being that markets are no longer price discovery mechs anymore, and I would put forward that the longer the CB's continue to make artificial demand then the real market makers will either exit voluntarily or forced out by collapsing margins.....

As for gold, it has held remarkable well considering that equities have hit records, again, and the $DXY hit a 4 year high.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Speaking of :fan This has the potential to get nasty here. After the Japanese QE round 98 announced last week gold acted opposite to what you would expect. That to me is a warning that it's playing a 'different game'.





Looks crashy.....


----------



## zac

Trembling Hand said:


> After the Japanese QE round 98 announced last week gold acted opposite to what you would expect. That to me is a warning that it's playing a 'different game'.
> 
> Looks crashy.....




Hi TH, im wondering if you have your tin foil hat on lol
I haven't looked too much into gold. I do believe it was manipulated last year when it tanked, but right now I think there is a level of manipulation on Oil.

When you say "looks crashy"
To what level?
Im wondering how low it can go but considering its already had a substantial drop im thinking 950.

Paper gold and physical gold are doing the opposites too. So its hard to put logic into this and I can totally see where Warren Buffett is coming from when he says "how do you value gold"

Given several gold miners are now not making profit on what they are mining, supply is subdued.
But hey, you have to love our fractional banking


----------



## skyQuake

Phys demand not looking good either.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/03/gold-demand-asia-idINKBN0IN0TW20141103

Also I have the same problem. 
Roughly half the stocks I buy are manipulated downwards so I lose money.
And Roughly half the stocks I short are manipulated upwards.

Outrageous!


----------



## zac

skyQuake said:


> Phys demand not looking good either.
> 
> http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/03/gold-demand-asia-idINKBN0IN0TW20141103
> 
> Also I have the same problem.
> Roughly half the stocks I buy are manipulated downwards so I lose money.
> And Roughly half the stocks I short are manipulated upwards.
> 
> Outrageous!




Cheers for the link,
That's interesting, I guess I assumed too much there. Perth mint is selling out of silver very fast as well as other physical outlets.
When gold was smashed last year the physical demand in India and China really took off. I didn't realise it wasn't the case this time around.

Ive only been in the game a few years but having spoken to fund managers etc, they certainly agree its a period they've not experienced before. Seems the rules have changed.
Then you have the S&P500 on quite a bull run, bonds stacked to the hilt with funds, money being printed non-stop, no real inflation, low yields.

What to make of all this hey.


----------



## Trembling Hand

zac said:


> Ive only been in the game a few years but having spoken to fund managers etc, they certainly agree its a period they've not experienced before. Seems the rules have changed.




What does that even mean?


----------



## zac

Trembling Hand said:


> What does that even mean?




Yeah my bad, I thought it didn't make much sense lol after I read it.

Kind of like what you were saying, QE should make commodities increase in value.
With the S&P 500 making new highs you'd expect money to rotate from bonds to equities, and therefore yields rise.
With all the loose monetary policy, to have created an inflationary environment.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Speaking of :fan This has the potential to get nasty here. After the Japanese QE round 98 announced last week gold acted opposite to what you would expect. That to me is a warning that it's playing a 'different game'.
> 
> Looks crashy.....




I thought you of all people could work that one out? As per A, FOA & FOFOA it's all about the currency war underway. With the EU looking like it's back to recession like growth (if they are lucky?) and Japan attempting financial Hara-Kiri, what else have you left - the cleanest dirty shirt USD. USD get's pumped, everything else get's dumped, casualties along the yellow brick road...................until the advantages of a strong dollar start to work against them, then it's game on for young & old??

In Yen terms not much change at all (not counting tonight's dumparama)




Although it looks to be DXY technical they will try (and look to be succeeding) to break supports along the way for good measure?

Here's one for you - ZH is reporting the usual $1.5B _notional_ gold dump(s) the last few days - what do you make of it?


----------



## dengo

Trembling Hand said:


> Looks crashy.....






			
				dengo;827142_________26th-May-2014 10:11 PM  said:
			
		

> Looks like another descending triangle
> 
> Target = 1182 - ( 1428 - 1182 ) = $936
> 
> View attachment 58128




Agree...$1182 support broken


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I thought you of all people could work that one out? As per A, FOA & FOFOA it's all about the currency war underway. With the EU looking like it's back to recession like growth (if they are lucky?) and Japan attempting financial Hara-Kiri, what else have you left - the cleanest dirty shirt USD. USD get's pumped, everything else get's dumped, casualties along the yellow brick road...................




*Or *everyone who matters has finally given up on the idea that mega inflation is coming. I mean the bugs have been saying it's 6 months away since 2001.

I guess after 13 years of being wrong a few would give up and look for something a bit more productive. 

As for ZH I haven't noticed any massive volume but will check the open interest change tomorrow.


----------



## zac

Trembling Hand said:


> I guess after 13 years of being wrong a few would give up and look for something a bit more productive.




The few guys who predicted the subprime credit crisis. They were wrong for a few years too 

Probably my lack of maturity in the markets, ive not heard of inflation bugs for as long as 13 years. I have heard it being bellowed since all this QE and 'currency wars' have started.
Im a firm believer though that nothing in this universe can happen without consequence, ie for every action there is a reaction.
So at some point there has to be a reaction.


----------



## skyQuake

zac said:


> So at some point there has to be a reaction.




Of course, but 'markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'


Look at all the smart guys that tried to short the dot com bubble in 1998

or the Widowmaker Trade


----------



## zac

skyQuake said:


> or the Widowmaker Trade




I've been taught by the school of hard knocks in relation to how a market can remain irrational.

Nice article re JGBs, and I know of other yield trades that cleaned people out. 
A fund manager I followed was trading options to express his bearish JGB view (and I believe still is).
Too many people have a severely fragile portfolio.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> *Or *everyone who matters has finally given up on the idea that mega inflation is coming. I mean the bugs have been saying it's 6 months away since 2001.
> 
> I guess after 13 years of being wrong a few would give up and look for something a bit more productive.
> 
> As for ZH I haven't noticed any massive volume but will check the open interest change tomorrow.




If asset bubbles are the results of monetary inflation then it's been rampant for the last X number of years - global property prices bubbles popping along the way (can't wait to see what ours looks like soon ). Oil price spike to $150, and recently high end art, property and autos. The 'official' inflation calcs are a croc!

Having said that, if the QE did actually start to escape the coffers then there would be a huge real economy inflation problem? As it is, with the currency wars underway it's a beggar thy neighbor race to the bottom of deflation exporting. Either way the end result will be good for gold, it just doesn't like the 'stability' of the USD at the moment.....

Could be a short covering/technical bounce from here - any week now  ????


----------



## So_Cynical

skyQuake said:


> Of course, but 'markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'




Take away leverage and staying solvent is pretty easy, irrationality is irrationality and needs to be taken advantage of much like fear, greed and stupidity.

Some of the Gold stocks are trading at irrational prices, my old favourite (TRY) Troy in particular caught my eye trading at below its GFC low and that was with the world ending and POG at around $700


----------



## zac

On the 30th of November the Swiss will have a referendum on whether the SNB should buy gold reserves.

I've only just become aware of it so getting my head around it. Im guessing by the drive down in gold price its unlikely to be in the affirmative.
prepare-for-gold-rally-if-swiss-bullion-referendum-passes.html


----------



## skc

A dangerous chart pattern emerges in Gold.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102147311#


----------



## Bintang

skc said:


> A dangerous chart pattern emerges in Gold.
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/102147311#




Awesome. 
The first ever technical analysis that I have found to be comprehensible.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Awesome. I'm starting to think that US equities are at a permanently high level and will never go down! No sellers left due to share buybacks at zero percent I guess? On behalf of our descendants, we will certainly owe a debt of gratitude to our vigilant central bankers.






melt-up


----------



## Uncle Festivus

More awsomer! That would have cost _them_ a few billion - keeping a lid on gold (fail) and pumping equities (fail, despite the as-per-usual 3.30 pump) on a miss on the NFP? Where would they be without the fudge factor of the Birth/Death guestimate? Convenient.

No manipulation??




Grab your popcorn, it look's like hitting the fan soon...........

And Greenspan capitulates? Includes the missing 3 minutes from the official video and transcript about his opinion on gold. Interesting section starts about 22m....

http://www.cfr.org/financial-crises/conversation-alan-greenspan/p33697

and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4-Tru_30A#t=34


----------



## explod

With the way things seem to be screwed it is hard to have faith in the markets, in my view, but

...on the gold chart we have a reverse hammer.  R u there Tech/a


----------



## DeepState

CoT non-commercials Gold gross short position is at levels close to the peaks recorded over the last couple of years. Short exposure trails the movement in gold prices.  Hence their behavior creates momentum effects. Importantly, the extent of associated reversionary behavior has also peaked to levels (and beyond) not seen since the high volumes of gross short outstanding at times in 2006/7 and for a short period leading into Taper Tantrum (the economics were visibly improving months prior).  

These observations suggest the current move is partially driven by relatively mechanical trend following algo/concepts on the gross short side.  This makes sense to me because this is not the natural position for the non-commercials.  Given the peaks of gross exposure and extent of reversion noted when short activity peaks, a degree of over-selling is indicated.

Please note, I would not trade gold on this alone, although the stats and underlying rationale are there.  It's just one input.  Thought you might be interested.

In brief, in the absence of a fair value estimate for the metal, market dynamics in isolation suggest it is presently over-sold.  Of course, there is no law of physics to suggest it can't get more oversold.



Source: COMEX, FactSet


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like yet another 'conspiracy theory turned fact' event again - one more to the tin foil hat wearers



> Regulators fine global banks $4.3 billion in currency investigation
> 
> (Reuters) - Regulators fined six major banks a total of $4.3 billion for failing to stop traders from trying to manipulate the foreign exchange market, following a yearlong global investigation.
> 
> HSBC Holdings Plc, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, *JPMorgan Chase & Co*, Citigroup Inc, UBS AG and Bank of America Corp all faced penalties resulting from the inquiry, which has put the largely unregulated $5-trillion-a-day market on a tighter leash, accelerated the push to automate trading and ensnared the Bank of England.




Still waiting for someone with morals & ethics to bring the PM market manipulators to 'justice'..............or any 'market' for that matter these days?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looks like yet another 'conspiracy theory turned fact' event again - one more to the tin foil hat wearers
> 
> 
> 
> Still waiting for someone with morals & ethics to bring the PM market manipulators to 'justice'..............or any 'market' for that matter these days?




Ya reckon they always fixed the price down?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Ya reckon they always fixed the price down?




Why not, the proof is there that 'they' can and do do it with whatever market they want. Depends which way they make the most money, but ultimately it is at the direction of The City and the Fed. While they get away with it the bosses turn a blind eye but if they get caught well, you're on your own. None of the bosses go to jail, only the minnions, and even that's not likely. No, a simple fine and abrogation of all wrongs and they are on their way again, back doing the same things that brought the system down at the start of the GFC. Only even more leveraged this time......

It's a currency war and the winner won't be fiat, especially the $USD. It's enemies are circling right now, whether you agree with their ideology or not. For all intents the global financial system collapsed 6 years ago and has been living on borrowed (literally!) time ever since. The shorters have been comprehensibly capitualised into retreat with the Draghi 'EU QE any day now' threat, more-so than the imminent next round of US QE. Rates won't be 'normalised' in my lifetime.

Equities are just about to roll over, although there's always the last gasp 'Christmas Rally', or reassuring comment from a Fed Governor, to chock top the teflon bull.

A  bit closer to home, and I'm reluctant to divulge it, I will be stocking up on a bulk petrol tank and a few essentials - 'prepping' if you like.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Why not,




Come on Unc!! They are sweeping stops a few ticks away. That will be a setup that will depend on the market at the time. So up just as much as down and you would think there was far more stops higher to take out over the last 10 years than lower.

You got to look at this stuff with some common sense. They were not moving gold from $1600 down to $1200. They were moving it a $1 here or there. Thats a market. Always has been.


----------



## pixel

I am not so much "into" short-term movements of the price of gold; but I try to follow the Spot price over several years on a monthly or weekly scale. Almost 3 years ago, I started a "weekly Trend Chart", marking the first 3 attempts to break support, which was then around $1530/oz. According to Bartrade, who first described the case to the Upside here: http://bartrade.biz/trades/4th.htm , the 4th attempt will often succeed; if it does, a useful target is twice the previous range. Check out how BLD and HVN rallied after the examples given.

The same principles apply to the Downside, with spot gold a prime example. Here, the 4th attempt succeeded in April last year, and the pog fell indeed to the 200% level, where support was found two months later. It appears that the June 2013 Low represents the first attempt of a new series. I am not quite certain whether this week's break attempt is still #3 of the new series, or already the 4th in the process of succeeding. If the latter, and if history repeats, we'll be in for another helluva drop, well below $1000/oz and possibly as low as $750/oz.




Below is the same chart cleaned-up: zoomed in and without auxiliary lines and envelopes:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Pixel your chart has so much stuff on it I cannot see what you are talking about.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on Unc!! They are sweeping stops a few ticks away. That will be a setup that will depend on the market at the time. So up just as much as down and you would think there was far more stops higher to take out over the last 10 years than lower.
> 
> You got to look at this stuff with some common sense. They were not moving gold from $1600 down to $1200. They were moving it a $1 here or there. Thats a market. Always has been.




I think the question is for the gold detractors as to why gold went to $1850 in the first place, having regard for the fundamentals then and now, because if anything the fundamentals for gold are more compelling now than back in say 2001 when it first started to move in earnest. I think it was base fundamentals buying (deep/smart? money) with then a general mainstream momentum trade once it caught on until it exhausted, or The City/Fed decided enough was enough and have driven it lower at convenient times ever since to knock it out technically as per pixel post. Simply unloved/no momentum right now.......gold is patient, waiting for confidence in CB rhetoric to fail.

The problem for TC/F is that it's all getting absorbed by the non $USD cheer squads for bargain basement prices who would love it to go even lower?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think the question is for the gold detractors as to why gold went to $1850 in the first place, having regard for the fundamentals then and now, because if anything the fundamentals for gold are more compelling now than back in say 2001 when it first started to move in earnest. I think it was base fundamentals buying (deep/smart? money) with then a general mainstream momentum trade once it caught on until it exhausted, or The City/Fed decided enough was enough and have driven it lower at convenient times ever since to knock it out technically as per pixel post. Simply unloved/no momentum right now.......gold is patient, waiting for confidence in CB rhetoric to fail.
> 
> The problem for TC/F is that it's all getting absorbed by the non $USD cheer squads for bargain basement prices who would love it to go even lower?




There is probably some truth in it but where is the data showing that the The City/Fed hold even 1 contract short in PMs? I mean it is exactly what they were/are trying to engineer, Inflation. So why would they give a toss about it showing up in PMs which are a tiny bit of the equation? I mean think about the logic in that without the Zerohedge conspiracy think. They wouldn't give a toss until it shows up in real wages which is a long long long way away. They have bigger problems.

I think the silver chart shows what is happening. Started as a fundamental trade. Every prepper and two bob crazy rolled into it causing a bubble in the QE=hyper inflation = PM boom trade. As the inflation has failed to show the real money has sold into the preppers and hopeful late Johns. Now we are left with a deflating mess in PMs.

All the gold bugs who like to post bubble charts of Equities and junk as a warning now are in the ironic position of holding something they value dearly that is at the bad end of just such a scenario.* Ironic!!*


----------



## pixel

Trembling Hand said:


> Pixel your chart has so much stuff on it I cannot see what you are talking about.




That's why I added the second one where I had removed all the trend and range division/ extrapolation lines.
Does that make the point clearer?


----------



## Sean K

This thread seems to evolves into a technical analysis of the gold price but I'm not sure if that was the intent. 

Anywho, is there is a fundamental reason for the price to go up or down?

The reason I ask is that a few years ago a number of very well respected commentators theorised that the money printing of the Fed, and elsewhere, would create drastic inflation and paper currency would turn the USD into Weimar Republic cash of legend.

But, the money printing hasn't resulted in inflation.

Gold has gone down.

Gold stocks have been decimated.


Has a guarantee of a piece of paper, or a bit coin, replaced hard gold?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> You got to look at this stuff with some common sense. They were not moving gold from $1600 down to $1200. They were moving it a $1 here or there. Thats a market. Always has been.




'a $1 here or there'? Would you believe $50 swings now? Crowded trade short gold/long USD?







Trembling Hand said:


> There is probably some truth in it but where is the data showing that the The City/Fed hold even 1 contract short in PMs? I mean it is exactly what they were/are trying to engineer, Inflation. So why would they give a toss about it showing up in PMs which are a tiny bit of the equation? I mean think about the logic in that without the Zerohedge conspiracy think. They wouldn't give a toss until it shows up in real wages which is a long long long way away. They have bigger problems.
> 
> I think the silver chart shows what is happening. Started as a fundamental trade. Every prepper and two bob crazy rolled into it causing a bubble in the QE=hyper inflation = PM boom trade. As the inflation has failed to show the real money has sold into the preppers and hopeful late Johns. Now we are left with a deflating mess in PMs.
> 
> All the gold bugs who like to post bubble charts of Equities and junk as a warning now are in the ironic position of holding something they value dearly that is at the bad end of just such a scenario.* Ironic!!*




Well obviously TC/F won't hold any trace directly, all through the subs.

Essentially they couldn't give a toss, but whilever it's an alternative currency being accumulated by the state enemies then they have to 'control' the outcome somewhat.....
I couldn't give a toss about silver.......

Not the bad end, perhaps just the beginning of the bad end for CB bubbles

And there's been plenty of inflation going around, it's just that it's not measured in the CPI correctly, for obvious reasons?

Squeeze me nice n tight.......



> Betting against gold and silver prices has this month reached multi-year records on the latest data from US regulator the CFTC.
> 
> Data compiled by Reuters this morning showed open interest in US gold options was heaviest in "put" contracts – set to profit if gold falls – at target prices of $1100-1200 for both December and January.
> 
> "The gold price has increasingly become a function of the strength of the US Dollar in recent weeks," says a note from the commodity analysts at Standard Bank, saying that gold is "*acting as a pseudo-currency*."
> 
> "Precious metals," says Sean Corrigan at Diapason Commodities in Switzerland, "are only currently finding support from a bout of physical tightness in gold," as shown by a rising cost to borrow gold through London's wholesale market.
> 
> The annualized interest rate on bullion demanded by would-be gold lenders for 1-month swaps has risen since the start of November to 0.27%, steadily reaching the highest level since dramatic spikes to 0.5% and 4% in 2001 and 1999, caused by a rush to cover short positions taken by bearish traders.
> 
> "So far," says Bernard Dahdah at French investment and bullion bank Natixis, "rises in lease rates have reflected the difficulty of transforming [large] Western-held bullion bars to kilo bars [for Asian investors].
> 
> "*But at some point, this may become more a question of the absolute volumes of gold still held in Western vaults*."
> 
> With London the centre of world bullion dealing, net gold exports from the UK have now totalled 1,680 tonnes since the start of 2013 according to BullionVault analysis.
> 
> That equals more than 60% of total net imports – primarily held for investors in London's specialist vaults – over the previous five years.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> 'a $1




you're up early on a Saturday Unc good to see! 

I was squeezed out this morning. was short (WAS)


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> As the inflation has failed to show...




That's something i never understood. With so much printing all around the world how's that possible? 

I feel i definitely belong to the left category:


----------



## DeepState

kennas said:


> 1. Anywho, is there is a fundamental reason for the price to go up or down?
> 
> 2. The reason I ask is that a few years ago a number of very well respected commentators theorised that the money printing of the Fed, and elsewhere, would create drastic inflation and paper currency would turn the USD into Weimar Republic cash of legend.
> 
> But, the money printing hasn't resulted in inflation.
> 
> Gold has gone down.
> 
> Gold stocks have been decimated.
> 
> 
> Has a guarantee of a piece of paper, or a bit coin, replaced hard gold?




1. Yep.

Over the last ten years the price of gold (I look at multiple currency numeraires to control for the flight to safety effect of USD) has been affected by the strength of the economy in China & India in more normal circumstances.  Under duress, it is impacted by distress experienced in the private sector.  It was significantly affected by the expansion of the Fed balance sheet from the announcement of QE1.  From late 2011, the acute phase of the banking crisis had passed, albeit the European theatre saw fragmentation before the ECB issues an edict that this was not allowed on their watch.  The European developments in 2012 did not have much impact.  Perhaps this was due to weakening economic performance in ChIndia.  More likely, the ECB balance sheet was already contracting having pretty much peaked by end 2011.  A sharp fall in April 2013 is directly attributable to the end of LSAP at the BoE.

From the end of 2012 to present day, risk premium has been compressed and the end/reversal of LSAP activity in the major printers has led to a decline in price.  Through 2014, the price of risk has continued to come in and, for other major currencies and gold has not done much.

Throughout, gold has done as follows:

Performed in accordance with the ChIndian economic growth rates.
Generally risen when risk was increasing and dropped when is was declining
Risen in concert with QE or similar and fallen

It has also been subject to liquidity issues per Cyprus and associated trading.

All in all, nothing here should be surprising.  It's actually interesting to see it tested.  Gold retains the characteristic of an alternative currency and a risk hedge.  It is moving with the fundamentals as would have been supposed 10 years ago.  That is to say that changes in price have moved as might be expected.  That says nothing about the price level itself.

Thankfully, hyperinflation was not tested.  Outright large scale war was not tested either, although a spike in price is visible with developments in Crimea, for example.

Implications for future price movements can be tied to the above observations.


2. Weimar was very different.  Weimar was not independent and financed government deficits writ large (let's ignore Japan, OK).  Further, the inflation there was not the result of credit induced excess demand.  There was a supply shock, namely because much of the capability to supply was rubble.  What was left was subject to price controls that did not encourage available supply to the market.  

In the US, the problem was insufficient demand and a busted credit mechanism which required support until it could heal.

There are some who are concerned that excess reserves still on Fed Balance sheet might suddenly be withdrawn as the bid for debt exceeds the Fed interest rate and thus expand the supply of money.  If this takes place rapidly and in a coordinated fashion (they don't have to explicitly coordinate, but simply respond to market developments using price signals) you can find the money supply jumping at a time when there is (pent up) demand.  If the supply response in inadequate because cap ulitization is tight, you can get inflation.  It is stupendously unlikely this will translate into hyper inflation.   

Why would you necessarily expect gold to rise in an environment of reduced risk premium?  It seems reasonable that demand will be associated with ChIndian consumer prosperity.  Perhaps, with the passing of time, gold purchases might not make up as much of investment portfolios (incl jewelry).  Nonetheless, I do not know of any reason to suggest the coefficient of demand suddenly collapsed or anything even vaguely like it.  It hould rise with incomes for a while, before tapering out as wealth increases....unless they are all complete gold bugs with trust issues.

The weakness in gold as priced in USD in 2014 is largely due to USD strength.

Gold has not been replaced by any means.  What is the BitCoin holding in the Fed/PBoC/BoE/BoJ/RBA balance sheets?  Would it be as much as 1 cent?


----------



## explod

Gold has just broken resistance to hit US1200.

recon Putin has arrived home and said "lets stickit up em.  biggest gold importer over the last month or two as well.

There is no attention to the fact that it was the Ukraine control tower that directed that plane over those battle grounds. The whole show smells to me.

We live in most remarkable times


----------



## Uncle Festivus

We're walking, walking and......stop. 

This is really funny now - the Fed apparently are divided on how to tell 'the market' when they will start to 'normalise' rates. Considering that this time last year they were predicting rates to rise about right now, because the recovery was so strong etc, we get the perpetual moving goal posts on rate rise(s)? I dare them to do it! But they won't.

It's not as if they don't know what's in the data - Japanese CB'ers had the numbers on the 'surprise' recession when they unleashed the beast again 2 weeks ago to mitigate the fallout. The Fed knows as well that the US economy is exceptionally fragile too and simply can't tolerate rates higher than a big fat zero. Too much leverage with borrowed debt.

Nothing for gold while ever the counter trade is the (second to) last trade in town?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> The Fed knows as well that the US economy is exceptionally fragile too and simply can't tolerate rates higher than a big fat zero.




Why is there a need to raise rates Unc?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Why is there a need to raise rates Unc?




Well that's the point - as far as the real economy is concerned, there isn't. As far as the bubble sectors are concerned, well, how far will they let them go before they will be 'too big to pop'? The Fed created the monster, but how will they try to contain it? More hollow Draghi-rhetoric? (Can't wait for the pop tomorrow night when he promises nothing, again)

But 'the market' is getting hysterically obsessed about 'when' rather than 'if'. Can you imagine what the market will do when they realise there won't be a rate rise? But then again, the cycle will have rolled over and we'll soon be back to a normal recession, except this one will be the doozy coz they is out of ammo.....start prepping


----------



## DeepState

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well that's the point - as far as the real economy is concerned, there isn't. As far as the bubble sectors are concerned, well, how far will they let them go before they will be 'too big to pop'? The Fed created the monster, but how will they try to contain it? More hollow Draghi-rhetoric? (Can't wait for the pop tomorrow night when he promises nothing, again)
> 
> But 'the market' is getting hysterically obsessed about 'when' rather than 'if'. Can you imagine what the market will do when they realise there won't be a rate rise? But then again, the cycle will have rolled over and we'll soon be back to a normal recession, except this one will be the doozy coz they is out of ammo.....start prepping




? Not sure what you position is.  If the Fed raises rates, markets crash.  If the Fed doesn't raise rates, markets crash.  If the real economy turns, there is no room left for monetary support and it will thus be severe...markets crash. The Fed can't lower rates any further to support markets but leaving it fixed inflates the financial asset bubble even further which must eventually pop/crash?  

Are you basically saying that asset prices are completely unjustifiable and it is an inevitability that they will have a substantive correction at some stage regardless of the activities of the real economy?


----------



## So_Cynical

DeepState said:


> Are you basically saying that asset prices are completely unjustifiable and it is an inevitability that they will have a substantive correction at some stage *regardless of the activities of the real economy*?




The real economy is awash with cheap money that is sustaining a weak recovery...the fragility is probably a good thing, the fundamentals for Gold are as compelling now as they ever were.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

i hope up atm, opened a long looking for a  higher low continuation. after this current rally broke a short term down trend.


----------



## explod

>Apocalypto< said:


> i hope up atm, opened a long looking for a  higher low continuation. after this current rally broke a short term down trend.




You are very brave, though a gold bull myself for the longer term the volatility could wipe you in a heart beat.

Do not put it past a drop to the suggested US$1000 before the capitulation, in my view.:-*

But wish you well with the trade :-*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

DeepState said:


> ? Not sure what you position is.  If the Fed raises rates, markets crash.  If the Fed doesn't raise rates, markets crash.  If the real economy turns, there is no room left for monetary support and it will thus be severe...markets crash. The Fed can't lower rates any further to support markets but leaving it fixed inflates the financial asset bubble even further which must eventually pop/crash?
> 
> Are you basically saying that asset prices are completely unjustifiable and it is an inevitability that they will have a substantive correction at some stage regardless of the activities of the real economy?




I am saying that asset prices are merely a function of money shuffling trend followers who would rather gamble at a computer screen than to go outside and build a factory and make something? That is, if there was organic demand there in the first place as we go into debt today and borrow from the future ie humanity has been living beyond it's means for several decades now? Refer previous charts re margin debt and negative credit balances to fund an ever reducing volume equity bull? Share buybacks mask deteriorating revenues?

The Fed's problem, and every CB's problem, is using the blunt interest rate setting as a jack of all markets cost of debt. Once they hit the zero bound there, they then move on to (mortgage) bonds to 'be' the market there too.
In the meantime there's an equity bubble blowing,  a new property bubble created by Wall St hedge funds, etc etc

In the real economy, the one where people get paid to do things, there is no money velocity, at least not enough to sustain a normal recovery as measured by GDP. Which is the other problem - data is now so convoluted and adjusted it's hard to get a real idea of anything anymore. Not that it matters as the market rises or falls on the utterances of Central Bankers ie they are the markets? 

So does anybody really think everything is fine & dandy or is it just a few tin foil hat wearers who think the emperor has no clothes, yet again? Put it this way, I think we are closer to the next leg of the GFC than we are to the start of it?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> i hope up atm, opened a long looking for a  higher low continuation. after this current rally broke a short term down trend.




Does the DXY come into your considerations or is the trade purely technical? I'm a gold bear at the moment, while ever the USD is king? If you have deep pockets and time it could be a fabulous trade??


----------



## >Apocalypto<

explod said:


> You are very brave, though a gold bull myself for the longer term the volatility could wipe you in a heart beat.
> 
> Do not put it past a drop to the suggested US$1000 before the capitulation, in my view.:-*
> 
> But wish you well with the trade :-*




Thanks X, i have been watching Gold for a week on the daily took the punt once todays low failed at yesterdays low. 



Uncle Festivus said:


> Does the DXY come into your considerations or is the trade purely technical? I'm a gold bear at the moment, while ever the USD is king? If you have deep pockets and time it could be a fabulous trade??




Hi Unc, pure tech trade. ent 1183.12 at BE now sitting to see how it handles the high. also tried a short looking for a trust down but changed long once the low was rejected. Happy to be at BE going to let it roll and see how it goes over night.

Also short the dow now as well. been watching and waiting for a sell on the dow all week. i'm hoping tonight is the panic down followed by a hard rally up lower high that starts the real correction. 

see how we go.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> Also short the dow now as well. been watching and waiting for a sell on the dow all week. i'm hoping tonight is the panic down followed by a hard rally up lower high that starts the real correction.
> 
> see how we go.




I've always found short ops after any central banker has a yada yada - 
Draghi tonight with more bazooka talk........set your alarm for 7pm :rippergun

Central banks response to shorters :ald:


----------



## rimtas

Quoting an excerpt from EWI

On September 2, 2011 Gallup poll showed Americans considered gold to be the best long-term investment, beating out real estate, stocks/mutual funds, savings accounts/CDs and bonds. We forecast the following: "it is surely a sign of exhaustion and perhaps the strongest sign of a gold top." The issue added, "Gold's wave structure is consistent with a terminating rise." Prices peaked two trading days later at $1921.50 on September 6, 2011. Despite record monetary stimulus in QE3 and QE4, years of political crises in the Mideast and Russia's invasion and annexation of part of its neighbor Ukraine, EWT and EWFF have maintained a bearish stance toward gold. Now, for the first time in three years, the wave structure can be labeled a complete five waves down from September 2011, which indicates a significant countertrend gold rally at hand.

... [there has been] a recent sea change in sentiment toward gold. [It] does not reflect the breadth of bearishness that existed in 2001, but it's negative enough for an intermediate-term low.

Other measures of investor psychology concur. Two weeks before gold's September 2011 peak, the 5-day Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) rose to 96% gold bulls, a record optimistic extreme that dates back to April 1987, when the data start. Last week, on November 5, the 5-day DSI fell to just 5%, a record pessimistic extreme. So far, that is the day of the daily closing low for gold at $1140.52.







The chart also shows the position of gold traders who use futures and options, as compiled each week in the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. Small Traders hold positions whose size is under the minimum reporting requirements to the CFTC. In October 2012, as gold was making a lower wave (2) high at just under $1800, small traders were so convinced that gold would continue higher that they held their biggest net-long position in over 11 years. Now, with gold down 36% since then, Small Traders are so convinced that gold will continue lower that they hold their biggest net-short position in 15 years. Current levels of sentiment are consistent with the end of a Primary-degree decline and the start of a rally.

Chart shows that gold has traced out five Intermediate waves down from September 2011. It is also possible to label five waves down within Intermediate wave (5), terminating at the closing low at $1140.52 on November 5 and the intraday low at $1131.85 on November 7.



If these lows are wave A,  wave B will carry gold higher into 2015. A reasonable target range is $1433-$1500. Even if wave (5) down isn't over yet, this will remain the ideal target range for wave B when it occurs.


----------



## Logique

With apologies to the Bulls, who in their right mind wouldn't be a gold Bear atm?

$USD going nuts, chart fundamentals apalling..it's not pretty.

Markets are volatile, the gold price is one of the the best demonstrations ever.


----------



## Logique

kennas said:


> This thread seems to evolves into a technical analysis of the gold price but I'm not sure if that was the intent.
> 
> Anywho, is there is a fundamental reason for the price to go up or down?
> 
> The reason I ask is that a few years ago a number of very well respected commentators theorised that the money printing of the Fed, and elsewhere, would create drastic inflation and paper currency would turn the USD into Weimar Republic cash of legend.
> 
> But, the money printing hasn't resulted in inflation.
> Gold has gone down.
> Gold stocks have been decimated.
> Has a guarantee of a piece of paper, or a bit coin, replaced hard gold?



Yep, good post.  In the absence of a credible explanation, we can only go by the chart, and that says - down.


----------



## So_Cynical

If the POO manipulation scenario plays out as talked about in the oil thread, Russia, Iran and a few other vulnerable non western friendly states in the firing line...the pressure builds on the Russia and Iran etc to dump Gold into the market as a way of raising money to pay the bills and keep the lights on.

IF these guys start to seriously dump then POG could see 800 very quickly...the perfect storm seems to be building.


----------



## pixel

Without the Swiss referendum, gold may have been a lot cheaper a lot sooner.
As the referendum got defeated 23:77 (I believe, 25% would have been sufficient) sub-$1000/oz becomes ever more likely.


----------



## DeepState

Implied gold price fall given oil price fall covered most of the gold move over the weekend - but not all. Data is based on the most recent 5 years, but the shape of the relationship exists for a longer time frame.





This is just a simple univariate analysis. Please don't read too much into it. Personally,  I am somewhat puzzled why falling oil prices, which increase the chances of further QE in EZ and Japan, aren't having the opposite effect on the gold price. Perhaps the gold bugs now believe QE doesn't necessarily lead to inflation and that the banking systems aren't in a state of imminent collapse (it's still fairly delicate in EZ depending what you make of sovereign risk).  Perhaps the US can also serve as the reserve currency again and be a reliable store of wealth.

In any case, Gold in AUD terms for the physical holders out there has really not done much and is about in line with prices since Bernanke first mooted an end to QE in the first half of 2013.  This highlights the alternate currency behavior that gold can have.  Of course, currencies have their own supply and demand dynamics which includes moving downwards.


----------



## explod

Well RT the oposite has hit.   A huge whiplash overnight where as I write gold has jumped 64 dollars from its low 1152 to its current 1204. After dippingback to the long term low support line the gold bull is back in place.   With other matters distracting me,  forgot to get my NST in the stock tipping too. 

Servere backwardation (see Zerohedge)  in the last months,  shorts are being slaughtered and attention will now focus back to the only real safe place in this current world market,  and that is by holding physical in the back garden among the vegitables LOL.


----------



## PipSafe

As it is mentioned in previous technical analysis of this metal in 17.11.2014, according to the symbols that were formed in the chart, it was possible that the price in this metal decreases and finally it happened(max=1220.872). Price during the downfall with reaching to the Up Trendline(made of 2 bottom prices) and support level (R=S) of Andrews’ Pitchfork has stopped from more descend and has formed a bottom price(Hammer patterns) in the level of 1132.765.

As it is obvious in the picture below, price with formation of AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 76.8 and 127.2 has prepared the field for ascending of the price from bottom price of 1132.765 that finally happened.RSI indicator in weekly time frame is in saturation sell area and in divergence mode with the price chart that with the next cycle confirms the current bottom price and warns about the potential of ascending during the next candles.The first important warning for descending of the price is breaking of Up Trendline. Generally until the bottom price of 1132.765 is preserved, there is the possibility of increase and ascend of price.

Gold Chart 2014.12.02


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It looks  like the disconnect between reality and just about everything else will continue for another month or so at least - Santa will get his wish for a big number of 18k for the Dow, 10k for the Dax, and 2100 for the sp500? Time to scale out of my longs I think, perhaps take a short or two?

With the genuine euphoria amongst the retail crowd over the NFP 'massive beat', you'd think it was all sunshine and lollipops from here on? Except for one glaring anomaly - full-time jobs (the ones that really matter?) declined back to June levels and possibly rolling over - is this 'peak recovery'?




At least gold still doesn't believe all is fixed - the gold bears will have to explain why the gold price isn't _a lot _lower? 

The counter trade - gold equities are bargains, again? 

Gold in $AU is up 6% for the year.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

......as he pushed the old, spider web covered door open, revealing a damp, dark, cavernous room, he thought to himself that it wasn't how it used to be. Where had they all gone? And more importantly, why? It wasn't as if all the posters were gold bugs as such, or that the gold detractors very rarely had valid points either. So he bravely started to type, and perhaps, if even with just a glimmer of hope, that he could bring the gold thread back to life.......

And so, the CIA has waterboarding, and the equity markets have waterfalling........even after the closing bell....big falls from big round numbers - this time blamed on (spin the wheel of blame) oil!

US politicians pound democracy into the ground even further with the dismantling of Dodd Frank and cowtowing to banks for a taxpayer insurance policy on derivatives......

Elizabeth Warren puts up the (losing) fight....



> Warren exhorted fellow Democrats to defeat the spending bill because it repealed a key provision of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law. The change would allow big banks covered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to trade in derivatives, which Warren said would increase the chances of a financial crisis and bailout.




Collars??? Coincidentally timed with the gold bank cartel hauled in front of a U.S. Senate committee and given a "please explain"



> With little fanfare or notice, the CME Group has notified the CFTC that they plan to institute trading collars for Comex precious metals trading. At present, these collars are planned to go into effect on Monday, December 22. Gold trading will now halt for five minutes after an intraday move of $100 from the previous close. The same for silver after a move of $3.




Interesting set-ups for gold equities?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Hey look, equities back to near record levels again, this time it only took em 2 days. Not sure why though, why not just go straight to {insert new, overbought, central bank funded record level here} and be done with it??

Russia may have to sell their gold coz they're in sooo much trouble. Nyet....

Cap still there at $US1200, although in anything but the fakest fiat it's doing ok

Thin holiday trade now - perfect for another 'fat' finger sell......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

End of year predictions?

Gold will fade the close, possibly last decent chance to buy in $US?

Dow will hit 18k, high fives and bonuses all round - equities will have 1 final surge then purge in '15

USD will initially continue to be well bid, but the continued trade implications will finally resolve when those who peg their currency to the USD can no longer afford to do so. This will mean the US will have to start paying it's creditors, which it cannot - ushering in the final stage of the GFC........


----------



## notting

Why can't they pay their creditors?
They have just printed about 1.5 trillion and the US$ is higher  on just about everything!


----------



## DeepState

Uncle Festivus said:


> USD will initially continue to be well bid, but the continued trade implications will finally resolve when those who peg their currency to the USD can no longer afford to do so. This will mean the US will have to start paying it's creditors.......




Why does it follow that those pegged to the USD defaulting in some way, associated with breaking of the pegs and depletion of foreign reserves (presumably), results in the US sovereign being forced to repay its debts (presumably you mean having to reduce the stock of debt rather than rolling it)?


----------



## Ann

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting set-ups for gold equities?
> 
> View attachment 60711




Interesting chart you have drawn there Uncle Festivus! Looks like a textbook inverted flag on a flagpole enormously bearish and very dangerous for anyone not wearing shorts! 

....and now a not so interesting chart from me. This is set in Log scale to show the real support and resistance lines. Gold failed its 14 year old supporting trendline quite profoundly which may well have lost it a lot of supporters. It is now under the influence of an overhead resistance trendline coming from October 2012. 
Happy New Year to all!


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> ....and now a not so interesting chart from me. This is set in Log scale to show the real support and resistance lines. Gold failed its 14 year old supporting trendline quite profoundly which may well have lost it a lot of supporters. It is now under the influence of an overhead resistance trendline coming from October 2012.
> Happy New Year to all!




Ann, I beg to differ with you profoundly. Gold has not yet failed its long term supporting trend line. According to my chart which is set in linear scale that will not happen until it drops under $1000/oz.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Ann, I beg to differ with you profoundly. Gold has not yet failed its long term supporting trend line. According to my chart which is set in linear scale that will not happen until it drops under $1000/oz.




G'day Bintang, if you set a chart in linear it makes little difference for most of the charting years you would be looking at, even longer term. However if you want to look at a very long term historical chart you need to set it in log to see the contours of the chart in the very early stages. Linear scale flattens all the very early information and creates a distorted view. This is what I was talking about on this post about the All Ords. 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=467&p=836245&viewfull=1#post836245
(For anyone interested here is a recent update on that chart. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=472&p=855148&viewfull=1#post855148  )

Any very long term historical charts will always be set in log or semi log and levels need to be taken from log/semi log scale in order to draw a true line from the past. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/img/100-200.png This is an historical chart from Stockcharts and you can see all the contours. This would not be possible if it was set in linear. 

You are handicapping yourself if you try to look at an historical long term chart through a linear view.

Cheers and all the best in '15

Ann


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> Any very* long term *historical charts will always be set in log or semi log and levels need to be taken from log/semi log scale in order to draw a *true line* from the past.
> 
> Ann




Ann, this is esoteric nonsense. What is long term, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 6000 years?
If only log/semi-log lines from the past are 'true' then other data from the past must be 'false'. 
Besides what point are you trying to make with your chart and the statement 'gold failed its very long term support line quite profoundly". What does that mean in terms of 'where the gold price is heading'?


----------



## CanOz

Bintang said:


> Ann, this is esoteric nonsense. What is long term, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 6000 years?
> If only log/semi-log lines from the past are 'true' then other data from the past must be 'false'.
> Besides what point are you trying to make with your chart and the statement 'gold failed its very long term support line quite profoundly". What does that mean in terms of 'where the gold price is heading'?




She's trying to express her opinion about the market, she is bearish, with good reason. She is also correct about the log scale, textbook explanation. Yes, they write textbooks on Technical Analysis of of price.

CanOz


----------



## Bintang

CanOz said:


> Yes, they write textbooks on Technical Analysis of of price.
> 
> CanOz




Textbooks are also written on how to analyse tea leaves:


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Ann, this is esoteric nonsense. What is long term, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 6000 years?
> If only log/semi-log lines from the past are 'true' then other data from the past must be 'false'.
> Besides what point are you trying to make with your chart and the statement 'gold failed its very long term support line quite profoundly". What does that mean in terms of 'where the gold price is heading'?




G'day Bintang, let me answer your last question first _''where the gold price is heading''_ I feel probably down, and I say _probably down _ because I never like to be adamant about anything in the future, there are too many unknowns. My strengths are in TA not FA however, will the fall in the oil price give a boost to industry and keep the Dow moving up? Will Russia start selling off its gold reserves to compensate for lost oil revenue? Will big money swing away from gold as an investment into the rising US$  I can't say, nor do I particularly care but I watch my long term charts and watch my support and resistance lines set in Log as well as linear ...I have been studying charts and drawing them on a daily basis well into my second decade....with charts you can see probabilities evolving. 

Your first question is much easier to answer....when you want to draw a long trending support line from way back when, no matter how many years, 5, 50, 500, 5000..set it in Log! 

Waaaay back in June 2012 I called a potential top for gold from what I saw on my charts. On this particular chart I had it set in Linear and it told me what I needed to know. I copped a lot of flack from folks here probably along the lines of 'esoteric nonsense' although I am not sure it was quite as polite back then! 

Here is the old quarterly chart I put up here with the call in the top for gold with a rising megaphone pattern. I am neither a bull nor bear for gold or anything for that matter...I simply call the charts as I see them.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Textbooks are also written on how to analyse tea leaves:
> 
> View attachment 60991




Awww bugger, I just spilled my teacup all over my runes! *cackles and moves away to stir the cauldron, avoiding my black cat on the hearth!


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> Awww bugger, I just spilled my teacup all over my runes! *cackles and moves away to stir the cauldron, avoiding my black cat on the hearth!




Funny you should mention the cauldron. I'm still waiting for your $8.40 prediction for TLS.
Of course in this case you only mentioned a target price without being so bold as to state when it would be reached. You are more wise than Harvey Organ.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Funny you should mention the cauldron. I'm still waiting for your $8.40 prediction for TLS.
> Of course in this case you only mentioned a target price without being so bold as to state when it would be reached. You are more wise than Harvey Organ.




At a wild guess around 2019. Does Mr Organ draw charts or just fuff around with sweet FA?


----------



## Bintang

I think sweet FA based on his blog posts but maybe he also takes advice from his parrot. He should get a black cat instead.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Ann, I beg to differ with you profoundly. Gold has not yet failed its long term supporting trend line. According to my chart which is set in linear scale that will not happen until it drops under $1000/oz.
> 
> View attachment 60950




On reflection, you may well be right! If there are enough amateur chartists following gold using the default setting of Linear scale then another massive reaction down, if it fails, may well happen at that level. Charts are merely reflecting the reaction of the majority.  You have convinced me to watch the trending support line on a second chart set in Linear! 
So...my question will then be, will $700 offer support if there is a massive bailout of panicked believers who have lost their faith and need to cover their leveraged gold buys ?

Interesting, thank you for making me think harder Bintang!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe this could be very important year for gold. Any further fall in gold prices especially below $500 will create gold crisis in Asia. Some emerging countries such as China and India will hit hard.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11366711

Swiss reject gold hoarding plan

DYOR


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> On reflection, you may well be right! If there are enough amateur chartists following gold using the default setting of Linear scale then another massive reaction down, if it fails, may well happen at that level. Charts are merely reflecting the reaction of the majority.  You have convinced me to watch the trending support line on a second chart set in Linear!
> So...my question will then be, will $700 offer support if there is a massive bailout of panicked believers who have lost their faith and need to cover their leveraged gold buys ?
> 
> Interesting, thank you for making me think harder Bintang!




Ann, it doesn't matter whether you use linear scale, semi-log scale, log-log scale or squiggly scale the lines are meaningless and have no predictive capability. If you draw straight lines on a semi-log scale you are simply applying an exponential trend. There is no intrinsic reason why any trend should be constantly exponential. I think vomitting camel pattern analysis has much more credence. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102147311


----------



## explod

Bintang said:


> . There is no intrinsic reason why any trend should be constantly exponential. I think vomitting camel pattern analysis has much more credence




Camel feeling better today thank you. 

Those relying on charts to trade the current east west currency wars are on treacherous ground in my humble view. 

Good to have my silver stack and vegie garden. 

Oh,  and NST will keep plodding along


----------



## explod

We all tend to can what we do not want to see and I would,  over the years be first to admit such errors. 

Gold is a financial industry connumdrum,  it avoids trailing feesand commissions and throughout history (canary in the cage)  it reveals the real worth of money.  So against an unbacked paper currency going down the tubes with massive debt,  it is enemy number one and the current BS on the evening financial news confirms the fact. 

Someone canned Harvey Organ on here the other day,  and though he gets a bit excited at times,  he just publishes the daily trading figures as the roll.  Nothing fictitious in that and his extrapolations are supported by such facts. 

Today,  off the same site we have another angle from Jim Willie,  that if taken with the mind open makes good sense on where we may be headed with gold. 

http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-the-end-game-is-underway/

And followed charts since 1968, W.  D.  GANN was very valuable in my early years.   But the politics behind the banks is where it is really at.   My study of the original founder of the Rothchild's the big eye opener.


----------



## Bintang

explod said:


> Someone canned Harvey Organ on here the other day,  and though he gets a bit excited at times,  he just publishes the daily trading figures as the roll.  Nothing fictitious in that and his extrapolations are supported by such facts.




Explod, do you include in that HO's extrapolation back last September of $200/oz silver and $10,000/oz gold by 1 January 2015?  Last time I checked the facts on the silver and gold charts it looks like he was a bit wide of the mark.


----------



## explod

Bintang said:


> Explod, do you include in that HO's extrapolation back last September of $200/oz silver and $10,000/oz gold by 1 January 2015?  Last time I checked the facts on the silver and gold charts it looks like he was a bit wide of the mark.




Agree,  and we would all be guilty of that.  As I said,  he does get a bit excited and any predicting is fraught,  but particularly in the current market. 

I have followed Harv's blog for a number of years as he is one of the closer reporters to the trading platforms.

Lol,  at the start of 2014,  I predicted gold to hit $US3100,  hey,  could have just been 12 months out.   The way oil and the US dollar are looking,  and the sheer pace of it would suggest a big Wall is set to hit soon in my view. 

To ignore good info based on a wild prediction or two would be to take off the glasses.  We need all the help we can find to steer our way in these crazy times I suggest.


----------



## Bintang

explod said:


> I have followed Harv's blog for a number of years as he is one of the closer reporters to the trading platforms.




I used to follow HO's original (pre-shutdown) blog just for its useful compilation of daily news articles. But as for his own commentary I have always found it nebulous and repetitious. Since he moved over to silverdoctors his posts no longer contain the news articles and the only thing of interest are the reader’s comments.
HO's obsession with GOFO rates has become a big yawn and the following paragraph gets repeated day after day:
_"The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks)"._


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Ann, it doesn't matter whether you use linear scale, semi-log scale, log-log scale or squiggly scale the lines are meaningless and have no predictive capability. If you draw straight lines on a semi-log scale you are simply applying an exponential trend. There is no intrinsic reason why any trend should be constantly exponential. I think vomitting camel pattern analysis has much more credence. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102147311




You are missing the entire point about charts Bintang, a chart is a universal language which can be understood by millions upon millions of people of any nationality without any delay of information. 

Once they understand and accept the general principles of charting, millions of people can act in unison with absolutely no co-ordination other than a single line on a chart. There is no need for blogs or news reports, all they need is a knowledge of charting to co-ordinate their buy/sell signals. 

If certain lines are more universally used than others as in long term support lines then you will get a ship load of people dumping at the same time. Some will read in Log and bail out earlier and take larger profits, some will have their charts set in Linear and perhaps sell during a panic. Others will have had percentage stops levels set at various time delays, by now these last people will be well and truly sold out of gold and into their next speculative foray. 

Gold is a more universal product than local stocks so you are likely to have more people reacting to gold's movements on an international basis. 

Imagine the number of speculators of gold in India and China alone! All reading their charts, all waiting for a sell signal to be triggered.




MARKETWINNER said:


> I believe this could be very important year for gold. Any further fall in gold prices especially below $500 will create gold crisis in Asia. Some emerging countries such as China and India will hit hard.
> 
> http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11366711
> 
> Swiss reject gold hoarding plan
> 
> DYOR





Hi Marketwinner, that was a very interesting article you linked to.....this is the part I found the most interesting 

_"Until 1973, Switzerland was part of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the value of the Swiss franc was defined in grams of gold. But the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was criticised for holding excessive gold reserves that generated too little return. Moving away from this system allowed the bank to decide more freely how to invest its currency reserves."_

It has always been the lack of return from gold which has kept me from investing. Capital gains are one thing but I always like a bit of rent/interest/dividend along the way.


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> Imagine the number of speculators of gold in India and China alone! All reading their charts, all waiting for a sell signal to be triggered.




I doubt this very much. The Indians and Chinese will be waiting for buy signals and if they are looking at charts they will not be configured in US$ and will therefore look nothing like the charts you are using.

PS: In fact even for me I care little what the US$ price of gold is. Its the AUD price which I look at.


----------



## Bintang

Ann, you also neglected to mention the Russians.
Here is the chart they are probably looking at - apologies for the linear scale but I don't think it matters.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Ann, you also neglected to mention the Russians.
> Here is the chart they are probably looking at - apologies for the linear scale but I don't think it matters.
> 
> View attachment 61008




You are quite right Bintang it is such a very short time frame it wouldn't matter whatever scale it is in , it would look the same.

What I am finding interesting on the chart in Rubles is it appears Russian Rubles may be suffering from some degree of devaluation and gold in their currency may be a reasonable hedge. Don't know, don't do Forex.

I actually didn't forget Russian gold speculators/investors but they are a mere drop in the ocean with around 143 million people to India's 1.27 billion and China's 1.35 billion.

Looking at the 10year gold chart in Chinese Yuan, it is tracking the US chart virtually step by step. http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/2a-cny-us-10y-Large.gif

Looking at 10 year chart for Indian Rupees it looks pretty much the same as a chart in US$ http://goldprice.org/NewCharts/gold/images/gold_10_year_o_s_INR.png?0.24251371833785773

Excluding Russia I think the world is likely to jump all together.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> PS: In fact even for me I care little what the US$ price of gold is. Its the AUD price which I look at.




The AUD price of gold is masked by our falling currency...our currency loses value as gold loses value so therefore anyone holding gold in AUD is a double loser so the losses may be much more than people can see on a gold chart using AUD. It is an illusion gold is holding up better in AUD, it is not.


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> Excluding Russia I think the world is likely to jump all together.




I think I now understand the point of your chart, which started this banter. So you believe based on your chart and its semi-log line that the gold price is heading downwards from its current price level. Let me offer an alternative view.

In the accompanying  chart I have applied vomiting camel pattern analysis to the longer term trend. We are thereby able to see an earlier, somewhat larger  vomiting camel pattern that developed around the 2007/2008 period.  I’m not an expert with this charting technique and the textbooks are yet to be written on the subject but I think it is important to do this analysis on a linear scale because a log scale will distort the true shape of the camel’s humps. This is important because once the humps are correctly identified it puts the camel’s head in the correct splat zone position.  Now what does this mean? Well we can see that gold had a spectacular 200% price rise after the first camel splat (i.e. chunder in Australian vernacular). The magnitude of the price rise is probably somehow proportional to the size of the splat so I am not suggesting that we are about to see a price surge of similar magnitude. The most recent vomiting camel manifestation is smaller and I also have to acknowledge that it looks like the first camel had an almost vertical flagpole up its rear end, which would have made its splat considerably more energetic. However, I think the gold price is heading upward – especially in rubles. And if the price does not go up it will simply be because it goes down instead. Charts can't be right all of the time but one thing they tell us with 100% certainty is that the price never stays constant.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> I think I now understand the point of your chart, which started this banter. So you believe based on your chart and its semi-log line that the gold price is heading downwards from its current price level




Eureka! I  think he has got it! Well done Bintang! However it may head up as I keep watching the chart.  The Russians may start speculating big time in gold if their Ruble continues to devalue.  Gold may be the only game in town....or maybe not....perhaps the US$ may have some appeal to them as well! 

This means FA to me, I am pure TA so I will keep watching the charts, they will tell me all I need to know ...bless them!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> The AUD price of gold is masked by our falling currency...our currency loses value as gold loses value so therefore anyone holding gold in AUD is a double loser so the losses may be much more than people can see on a gold chart using AUD. It is an illusion gold is holding up better in AUD, it is not.




Huh? How can I be a 'double loser' when the price is 8% higher in $AUD at the end of the year than the start? How do you think the price in $AU is derived??? NO illusion there.




That's the whole point of what's happening now with the (dirty) currency wars - trying to make economies artificially competitive through currency devaluation via various QE, etc and the ever growing revulsion of the $USD as the global currency which manifests itself in trade deals and currency swaps that don't include the $USD.  



> The advantages this system bestows on the US are enormous. “Reserve currency status” generates huge demand for dollars from governments and companies around the world, as they’re needed for reserves and trade. *This has allowed successive American administrations to spend far more, year-in year-out, than is raised in tax and export revenue. *






> .....seven decades on from Bretton Woods, the governments of Brazil, Russia, India and China led a conference in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza to mark the establishment of a new development bank that, whatever diplomatic niceties are put on it, is intent on competing with the IMF and World Bank.




And this is why gold will literally take of soon, and the US will have to start paying the pipers - the 22% crash in USD foreign exchange holdings in just 12 years...



> Although the dollar’s reserve status won’t end overnight, the global payments system is now moving inexorably towards that outcome. The US currency accounted for just 33pc of all foreign exchange holdings in 2013, on IMF numbers, down from 55pc in 2001.




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rs-70-year-dominance-is-coming-to-an-end.html

As for charting generally, if enough fools know the same rules then the fools will herd themselves off a cliff eventually..................


----------



## Uncle Festivus

DeepState said:


> Why does it follow that those pegged to the USD defaulting in some way, associated with breaking of the pegs and depletion of foreign reserves (presumably), results in the US sovereign being forced to repay its debts (presumably you mean having to reduce the stock of debt rather than rolling it)?




The rising dollar is an imbalance in an already unbalanced system. To raise rates would be the final capitulation for foreign debtors, so unlikely it will happen soon, most probably not at all? We just have to sit back and wait now....



> Against this backdrop, the BIS is concerned that some emerging economies could come unstuck because of a growing dependence on loans taken out in US dollars.
> 
> Offshore lending in US dollars has hit $9tn, roughly double its 2008 value. Emerging economies have taken out $3.1tn in cross-border loans, mostly in US dollars. Since the end of 2012 alone, dollar loans to China have doubled to $1.1tn, and Chinese citizens have borrowed more than $360bn in debt securities.
> 
> But this puts borrowing economies in a vulnerable spot. *As the dollar appreciates in value against the local currency, the loan becomes more expensive to repay, raising the risk of default and economic instability.* The dollar has been rising against the euro and the yen since the US Federal Reserve announced an end to its stimulus programme and hinted at an interest-rate rise next year. In contrast, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have loosened monetary policy and signalled greater stimulus.
> 
> “The appreciation of the dollar against the backdrop of divergent monetary policies may, if persistent, have a profound impact on the global economy, in particular on [emerging market economies]. For example, it may expose financial vulnerabilities as many firms in emerging markets have large US dollar-denominated liabilities,” BIS said.


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> The AUD price of gold is masked by our falling currency...our currency loses value as gold loses value so therefore anyone holding gold in AUD is a double loser so the losses may be much more than people can see on a gold chart using AUD. It is an illusion gold is holding up better in AUD, it is not.




Like most Australians my income and living expenses are entirely in Australian dollars. When I buy gold the fiat I have available to buy it with is AUDs. If I sell it (but I don't) the Perth mint would give me AUDs in return.

Now suppose I had bought one oz of gold in May 2014 for AUD 1340 (which I did but more than 1 oz actually) and sold it yesterday. I would have around AUD1500.

Suppose that instead of buying the oz of gold in May 2014 I had put my AUD 1340 in an 8 month term deposit at 3% annual interest rate and it matured today giving me AUD 1368.

Please now tell me why purchasing gold in AUD would have caused me a double loss. Perhaps you can use your charts to explain it.


----------



## explod

I am with your thoughts Bintang. 

Holding physical gold (in my case silver) is not about trading or making money,  it is about preservation of capital in uncertain times.   And if ever there was such a time,  it is now. 

But back to the ponzie paper game,  the US$ gold price is looking for a run towards the $1245 mark,  next resistance.   I base this idea on main street media jargon,  fundamentals and chart behaviour of the last day or so. 

Just a rough view with gobbledygook thrown in.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Like most Australians my income and living expenses are entirely in Australian dollars. When I buy gold the fiat I have available to buy it with is AUDs. If I sell it (but I don't) the Perth mint would give me AUDs in return.




You will lose purchasing power. Most of our big ticket purchases (cars, electronics, clothing) are manufactured overseas, they will become more expensive as the AUD falls. Property is likely to rise in price as it becomes cheaper for foreigner investors to buy with their appreciating currencies. 



Bintang said:


> Now suppose I had bought one oz of gold in May 2014 for AUD 1340 (which I did but more than 1 oz actually) and sold it yesterday. I would have around AUD1500.
> 
> Suppose that instead of buying the oz of gold in May 2014 I had put my AUD 1340 in an 8 month term deposit at 3% annual interest rate and it matured today giving me AUD 1368.




Had you actually sold yesterday and taken profits  I would have applauded your win. However you say you buy gold and hold. 

It is fine to cherry pick a good looking date and show paper profits. I will cherry pick a date from three years ago when there appeared to be a great buying opportunity for genuine gold bugs....just 5 months after its high it sank down dramatically. A good time to buy into the retrace one would have thought.



Bintang said:


> Please now tell me why purchasing gold in AUD would have caused me a double loss. Perhaps you can use your charts to explain it.




1. You will be paying more for overseas products as the AUD continues to lose value.

2. the $ value of your gold assets will be depreciating if gold continues to fall.

I need to spell this out very clearly in the simplest possible way..... *Gold may or may not fall further, I am not saying it will, I am not saying it won't. I am simply saying if it does this may be the outcome.*

I will put up the chart you requested to show why you lose twice.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> You will lose purchasing power. Most of our big ticket purchases (cars, electronics, clothing) are manufactured overseas, they will become more expensive as the AUD falls. Property is likely to rise in price as it becomes cheaper for foreigner investors to buy with their appreciating currencies.
> 
> Had you actually sold yesterday and taken profits  I would have applauded your win. However you say you buy gold and hold.
> 
> It is fine to cherry pick a good looking date and show paper profits. I will cherry pick a date from three years ago when there appeared to be a great buying opportunity for genuine gold bugs....just 5 months after its high it sank down dramatically. A good time to buy into the retrace one would have thought.
> 
> 1. You will be paying more for overseas products as the AUD continues to lose value.
> 
> 2. the $ value of your gold assets will be depreciating if gold continues to fall.
> 
> I need to spell this out very clearly in the simplest possible way..... *Gold may or may not fall further, I am not saying it will, I am not saying it won't. I am simply saying if it does this may be the outcome.*
> 
> I will put up the chart you requested to show why you lose twice.




I think you are just confusing yourself even more. What has imported goods prices got to do with the gold price in $AU? There is no argument there - imported goods prices should go up as the exchange rate falls (if they are imported from the US), all else being equal.

And it's not about cherry picking prices - the price of gold in $AU will go up as the $US/$AU exchange rate falls, all else being equal. It's simple maths.

Your points? 1 - correct, if buying from the US, but irrelevant here.
2 - Depends on the exchange rate doesn't it?


----------



## tinhat

Here is a chart showing the value of the AUD  in USD (black)and the relative value of gold  in USD (blue) going back as far as I have data for (from 1998).


----------



## Ann

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think you are just confusing yourself even more. What has imported goods prices got to do with the gold price in $AU? There is no argument there - imported goods prices should go up as the exchange rate falls (if they are imported from the US), all else being equal.
> 
> And it's not about cherry picking prices - the price of gold in $AU will go up as the $US/$AU exchange rate falls, all else being equal. It's simple maths.
> 
> Your points? 1 - correct, if buying from the US, but irrelevant here.
> 2 - Depends on the exchange rate doesn't it?




G'day Uncle Festivus, I think it is you who is confusing yourself! Let me try to clarify for you, I was suggesting to Bintang he was taking a double hit holding gold bought in $AUD, because the price of gold is falling in $AUD. Monday August the 22 of 2011 the gold price saw an all time high close of $AUD1822.10 it is now down to a close on Friday January 9 2015  of $AUD1489.69.That is a fall in price and his first hit. It's simple maths.

The second hit I was suggesting Bintang  was taking, was on the value of his Aussie dollars as it is losing value against our trading partners (Japan to a lesser extent so far) which means it will cost more for imported goods and not just from the US but from China as well. The Yuan tends to track the $USD.

So holding an asset which is falling in price using a currency to hold it which is falling in value is in my opinion taking a double hit. 

I would hazard a guess that we currently buy the majority of our big ticket items from China not so much from the US although the government is going to buy a few bobs worth of fighter planes in a few years from the US. Could be a very expensive exercise, unless they pay for them in $USD, hopefully we are holding some.....if not, tighten your belts folks!

Now for the inevitable chart ....this time showing the Australian dollar to the Chinese Yuan




Hope that clarifies it for everyone, probably not for the gold bugs, they tend to be blinded by gold dust! Not too far removed from bulldust!


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> So holding an asset which is falling in price using a currency to hold it which is falling in value is in my opinion taking a double hit.




Let's see now. Gold price falls to USD1000 and the Australian dollar exchange rate drops to 0.65. At that point the gold price is AUD 1538. That looks to me like a preservation of value rather than a double loss. But if your charts tell you otherwise that's ok by me.
As for cherry picking that is exactly what I try to do. I target the dips in the *AUD price* for the purpose of accumulating. What I allocate to gold amounts to less than 10% of my portfolio at any particular time.

Ann, you obviously only think in terms of trading activity so you will never understand why people like me buy gold and hold it. But I think also that your idea that there are millions of Chinese and Indians watching USD gold charts and waiting to hit the sell button when the price drops is non-sensical. Quite the opposite is the case. That is why the gold price has already managed to stay above USD1130 and hasn't dropped to the USD800 level suggested by the likes of Goldman Sachs.


----------



## notting

I pointed out a couple of weeks ago that there was some unusual high volume end of the day buying going on with gold.  The price hadn't started to move and there was no suggestion in world terms that it would regarding events especially as the US $ was and is continuing to show strength.
So what did it mean?
Perhaps some kind of geographical even that would scare people into the perceived safety of gold.
Looking at the professionalism in the way those terror nut jobs were brandishing weapons it suggested a fairly high level of training and organisation given the target, the security they got through, and the huge response in the media.
Was that the scarey thing that some probably Arabs were privy too?
It's interesting to note also that one of Bin Laden's gripes with the west was that oil was too cheap and the free world should be paying more.  Arabs again.
Timing is interesting.
Question is - is this just an event spike, that is counter what all the other commodities have been doing and thus soon to reverse.  You'd think the Russians may want to offload a bit at these levels and any other oil based economy with damaged currency and exports.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> Let's see now. Gold price falls to USD1000 and the Australian dollar exchange rate drops to 0.65. At that point the gold price is AUD 1538. That looks to me like a preservation of value rather than a double loss. But if your charts tell you otherwise that's ok by me.




Where are you getting the exchange rate of 0.65? Looking back at my charts, it hasn't been 0.65 since March 2009. In June 2009  the price of gold in $AUD was around 1180 and in $USD around 940.



Bintang said:


> As for cherry picking that is exactly what I try to do. I target the dips in the *AUD price* for the purpose of accumulating. What I allocate to gold amounts to less than 10% of my portfolio at any particular time.




I guess only risking a 10% non performer in your portfolio is no big deal as long as your other investments are performing well.



Bintang said:


> Ann, you obviously only think in terms of trading activity so you will never understand why people like me buy gold and hold it.




I can understand a spread of investments.  My style of investment is to only hold a spread that either pays me a rent/interest/dividend with a preference to areas where I believe I will also attract capital gains. I don't hold currencies or gold for that reason.  



Bintang said:


> But I think also that your idea that there are millions of Chinese and Indians watching USD gold charts and waiting to hit the sell button when the price drops is non-sensical. Quite the opposite is the case. That is why the gold price has already managed to stay above USD1130 and hasn't dropped to the USD800 level suggested by the likes of Goldman Sachs.




........and a lot watching in the US and Australia as well! I think you and I worked out previously why it hasn't fallen over the cliff as suggested by Goldman Sachs and all those who read their charts using Log scale. The people who will be running over a cliff are set in Linear and that line is down a bit further, we have yet to reach the cliff edge in Linear.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> G'day Uncle Festivus, I think it is you who is confusing yourself! Let me try to clarify for you, I was suggesting to Bintang he was taking a double hit holding gold bought in $AUD, because the price of gold is falling in $AUD. Monday August the 22 of 2011 the gold price saw an all time high close of $AUD1822.10 it is now down to a close on Friday January 9 2015  of $AUD1489.69.That is a fall in price and his first hit. It's simple maths.




You simply can't make the statement that gold is falling in $AUD, unless of course you choose to pick a convenient date - I could choose 2001 and show a spectacular gain in whatever currency you care to choose. It also assumes that everyone bought at the absolute peak?? Just non logical argument?



Ann said:


> The second hit I was suggesting Bintang  was taking, was on the value of his Aussie dollars as it is losing value against our trading partners (Japan to a lesser extent so far) which means it will cost more for imported goods and not just from the US but from China as well. The Yuan tends to track the $USD
> 
> So holding an asset which is falling in price using a currency to hold it which is falling in value is in my opinion taking a double hit. .




Simply incorrect on both counts - you are making an assumption on the first and simply wrong and the second point. In fact quit the opposite ie it is holding 'value' against a falling currency. I am showing an 82% gain on my gold holdings. 



Ann said:


> I would hazard a guess that we currently buy the majority of our big ticket items from China not so much from the US although the government is going to buy a few bobs worth of fighter planes in a few years from the US. Could be a very expensive exercise, unless they pay for them in $USD, hopefully we are holding some.....if not, tighten your belts folks!.
> 
> Now for the inevitable chart ....this time showing the Australian dollar to the Chinese Yuan
> 
> View attachment 61073
> 
> 
> Hope that clarifies it for everyone, probably not for the gold bugs, they tend to be blinded by gold dust! Not too far removed from bulldust!




No one cares about whether the price of goods from China will go up or down - what has it to do with gold?

Time will tell, and time is running out for the $USD............


----------



## Ann

Uncle Festivus said:


> You simply can't make the statement that gold is falling in $AUD, unless of course you choose to pick a convenient date - I could choose 2001 and show a spectacular gain in whatever currency you care to choose. It also assumes that everyone bought at the absolute peak?? Just non logical argument?




I am not concerned when anyone bought, that has nothing to do with what I am saying. I am saying from August 2011 the price of gold in Aussie dollars has been following a downward trajectory. When a line goes upward on a chart to the pinnacle it means it is rising. When a line goes downward it is falling. I realize this is a hard concept to grasp. If you buy into a falling price you will eventually be the loser, regardless of when you bought in, unless you choose to keep buying and average down, old joke "then you will have below average profits!" 






Uncle Festivus said:


> I am showing an 82% gain on my gold holdings.



.

Soon to be somewhat less than 82% if the gold price continues to fall!


----------



## Ann

Just a quick word to any serious gold traders out there, I think there may be a fairly reasonable tradeable rise in gold coming. Just did a quick look at the AUD/USD chart and it is about to test a long term support/resistance line of 0.80. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=62&p=856499&viewfull=1#post856499

May be wrong of course but hopefully good trading guys.


----------



## Bintang

Ann said:


> Where are you getting the exchange rate of 0.65? Looking back at my charts, it hasn't been 0.65 since March 2009. In June 2009  the price of gold in $AUD was around 1180 and in $USD around 940.




Simply a possible scenario I selected and because there is a general tendency for the AUD/USD exchange rate to fall as the gold price in USD falls. We have been there before: 24 Feb 2009 to be precise - gold USD 997, AUD/USD 0.645



Ann said:


> I guess only risking a 10% non performer in your portfolio is no big deal as long as your other investments are performing well.




Put another way, it only needs to perform when everything else is not. Aside from that there are other reasons why I hold gold. Some people buy and hold paintings or other artwork. Some people like to buy and hold vintage cars, etc etc. I like to buy and hold gold. Apart from other considerations it is simply beautiful.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> I am not concerned when anyone bought, that has nothing to do with what I am saying. I am saying from August 2011 the price of gold in Aussie dollars has been following a downward trajectory. When a line goes upward on a chart to the pinnacle it means it is rising. When a line goes downward it is falling. I realize this is a hard concept to grasp. If you buy into a falling price you will eventually be the loser, regardless of when you bought in, unless you choose to keep buying and average down, old joke "then you will have below average profits!"
> 
> Soon to be somewhat less than 82% if the gold price continues to fall!




Now 90%.


----------



## Bintang

Uncle Festivus said:


> Now 90%.
> 
> View attachment 61092




Sorry to disappoint you Uncle Festivus but you have to use a log scale and the correct time period in which case you will observe that it is definitely going down.


----------



## explod

Bintang said:


> Sorry to disappoint you Uncle Festivus but you have to use a log scale and the correct time period in which case you will observe that it is definitely going down.
> H]




Good little break out to the upside there Bintag, 

I say its now going up.   My loverly NST is too.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bintang said:


> Sorry to disappoint you Uncle Festivus but you have to use a log scale and the correct time period in which case you will observe that it is definitely going down.
> 
> View attachment 61102




Yes, but......oh never mind 

The big picture, the latest action doeesn't really rate yet, although nice. When it really get's going gold will be 'askless'?


----------



## Bintang

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, but......oh never mind
> 
> The big picture, the latest action doeesn't really rate yet, although nice. When it really get's going gold will be 'askless'?




At which point the chartists will re-position their straight lines and tell us that their previous resistance line changed into a support line etc -   because hindsight is more perfect than the charts themselves. One reason I like 'vomitting camel pattern analysis' so much is that it doesn't require straight lines of any kind.


----------



## notting

I know it's all looking very hopeful.
But every bone in my body is telling me this is not going anywhere from here.
It won't take me long to say F that and jump on if it's game on however.


View attachment 61102


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Mark Faber has put a figure on gold for this year - up 30%.

Gold equities too eg NCM - breaking out first?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ma...0-in-2015-2015-01-13?link=MW_home_latest_news


----------



## notting

Wasn't this theme of buying gold due to money printing debunked?
Then decided it was really only when things were getting scary, uncertain and sovereign risky that was making gold rally?
Although I do think if the ECB decides not to print for about the 18th time in 6 years, gold may have a little correcting to do.
So now might be a good time to take some profits given that ECB move seems to have been largely priced in.
Unless something else scary happens.


----------



## Ann

Bintang said:


> At which point the chartists will re-position their straight lines and tell us that their previous resistance line changed into a support line etc -   because hindsight is more perfect than the charts themselves. One reason I like 'vomitting camel pattern analysis' so much is that it doesn't require straight lines of any kind.




*falls about laughing.

 I just love you guys! It is the reason I keep coming back. I love it when people have the intelligence and intellect to take the piss!

Kisses to Bintang and Uncle Festivus. May your rising support lines always be there for you! xxxx

Now chaps, i have a $hit load of work to do and may be invisible for a while.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Queen - Another one bites the dust?

Another one bites the dust
 Another one bites the dust
 And another one gone, and another one gone
 Another one bites the dust
 Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
 Another one bites the dust




> The Swiss National Bank (SNB) stunned markets on Thursday, when it scrapped its three-year-old peg of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro.
> 
> In a chaotic few minutes after the central bank's announcement, the Swiss franc soared by around 30 percent in value against the euro.




Several tens of billions in losses later, the SNB throws in the towel before the ECB prepares for imminent massive QE.

Gold up 3%. NEM up 8%. NCM up ?%

Leveraged fall-out from oil, now currencies - some serious losses happening out there kiddies - contagion?

What will be the last currency left standing?


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> What will be the last currency left standing?




Hummmmmmm,     errrrrrr,     

gold Uncle


----------



## Bintang

Uncle Festivus said:


> Another one bites the dust?
> What will be the last currency left standing?






explod said:


> Hummmmmmm,     errrrrrr,
> 
> gold Uncle




Maybe silver as well, unless all of it has been consumed to make chinese solar panels.


----------



## pixel

Bintang said:


> Maybe silver as well, unless all of it has been consumed to make chinese solar panels.




Weekly silver chart




I've been Bearish silver since it broke below $20/oz. However, a rise above $18/oz would signal some stabilization. At that stage, I'd also start looking at silver miners again.

As regards the subject of this topic: I believe a lot of the current hype has to do with Euroland and the expected QE there. The Swiss have acted yesterday and caused a ripple effect across not only Forex markets, but also precious metals. For me, it's too early to tell whether the current rally will last or fade back towards $1200 support.


----------



## Bintang

pixel said:


> Weekly silver chart
> 
> View attachment 61155
> 
> 
> I've been Bearish silver since it broke below $20/oz. However, a rise above $18/oz would signal some stabilization. At that stage, I'd also start looking at silver miners again.
> 
> As regards the subject of this topic: I believe a lot of the current hype has to do with Euroland and the expected QE there. The Swiss have acted yesterday and caused a ripple effect across not only Forex markets, but also precious metals. For me, it's too early to tell whether the current rally will last or fade back towards $1200 support.




I agree with you. My remark about silver was slightly tongue-in-cheek


----------



## notting

So maybe it was the Swiss buying ahead of the game.
Everyone's expecting QE EURO and there is deflation all over the joint.
With petrol and commodities slumping it's still gonna be hard bending deflation into inflation.
Deflation is not good for Gold, I suspect people may be forgetting that at this point.
Still the uncertainties are enough to be giving it a boost.
I was ahead on my shorts yesterday so closed them out today for small losses and multiplied one by 4 at the top of this mornings trading which will get me out almost loss free.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> Deflation is not good for Gold, I suspect people may be forgetting that at this point.




I think we've moved on from that theory, more about currency maintaining values now? Preserving your wealth when banks are forcing you to spend by applying negative interest rates, which was the other, mostly ignored, part of the SNB edict.

What should be remembered too is that what's happening now is multi generational, multi decade structural deficiencies coming to the fore, where the central bankers have applied their usual fix but without the usual response - forcing consumption with debt created by fiat with nothing but blind faith as backing?

Gold is a no brainer, but even the no brainers can't comprehend even this?

I've been buying silver coins lately.....


----------



## waterbottle

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think we've moved on from that theory, more about currency maintaining values now? Preserving your wealth when banks are forcing you to spend by applying negative interest rates, which was the other, mostly ignored, part of the SNB edict.
> 
> What should be remembered too is that what's happening now is multi generational, multi decade structural deficiencies coming to the fore, where the central bankers have applied their usual fix but without the usual response - forcing consumption with debt created by fiat with nothing but blind faith as backing?
> 
> Gold is a no brainer, but even the no brainers can't comprehend even this?
> 
> I've been buying silver coins lately.....




Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?


----------



## explod

waterbottle said:


> Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?




If things really fold as I believe,  bitcoin would go down the cyber viod to. 

Who do you really think controls the internet? 

Yep,  silver coins for me too.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

waterbottle said:


> Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?




If we are to be totally pragmatic with what is happening in the world today then it's not likely that trends will reverse any time soon, those trends being political impotence/corruption, environmental unsustainability, geopolitical/religious instability, and most relevant of all, financial/price manipulation. The only thing holding it all together at the moment is money printing by the central banks. The SNB just folded! More collateral damage will be unveiled in the weeks ahead? Give it a few days after EuroQE is announced and the Dax will be the short of the century......

Can't comment on bitcoin?


----------



## Bintang

waterbottle said:


> Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?






explod said:


> If things really fold as I believe,  bitcoin would go down the cyber viod to.






Uncle Festivus said:


> Can't comment on bitcoin?




One of my guiding rules is to keep a very watchful eye on what the Chinese are doing. If they were buying bitcoin the way they are buying gold I might get interested.


----------



## Bintang

notting said:


> Why can't they pay their creditors?
> They have just printed about 1.5 trillion and the US$ is higher  on just about everything!




I only just spotted the question you posted a while back.
I feel like I am stating the obvious but is’nt it simply the case that the USA will be able to pay its creditors only for as long as those creditors remain willing to accept the USA’s fiat as payment?

Personally I am 100% convinced that a day is coming when all those creditors will stop accepting USA fiat. I just don’t know when.

My


----------



## explod

Bintang said:


> I only just spotted the question you posted a while back.
> I feel like I am stating the obvious but is’nt it simply the case that the USA will be able to pay its creditors only for as long as those creditors remain willing to accept the USA’s fiat as payment?
> 
> Personally I am 100% convinced that a day is coming when all those creditors will stop accepting USA fiat. I just don’t know when.
> 
> My




Very close in my view and summed up well by Bill Holter overnight:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1421424300.php


----------



## CanOz

Gold would be an easy trade to 1300 from here i reckon, look for a bracket there and an opportunity to enter a trade....be it higher or lower again....Not trying to predict, just anticipate


----------



## boliu

if AUS is heading 75c, then gold is heading $960


----------



## Uncle Festivus

boliu said:


> if AUS is heading 75c, then gold is heading $960




AUS is 82.3
Gold is $1560

So if AUS is 75 then gold will fall $600?

Why?


----------



## Bintang

Uncle Festivus said:


> AUS is 82.3
> Gold is $1560
> So if AUS is 75 then gold will fall $600?
> Why?




The combination of 75 and $600 certainly looks like an unlikely outcome, considering where things are currently.
(See following chart) Note the different patterns before and after the start of Quantitative Easing in the USA. 
The plotted data begins from August 1984.


----------



## notting

I think it's probably done.
It did pretty much nothing last night even though the ECB came up with the goods.
Further a strong US$ is usually very bad for gold on this occasion gold has priced in the ECB move and gold stocks in the US that I watch were nothing to slightly negative.
If it's true, what they all concluded as the US QE was still in full swing, that Gold wasn't being used as a hedge against inflation or money printing then it could fall off a cliff from here unless there is some fairly scarey political  uncertainty.
Why? because EU printing is only going to make the US$ stronger and gold is measured in US$ for one.
Looking for a spike and top out this morning.



> Stocks of companies that dig up gold have been among the world's top
> performers. As of the close of trading on Wednesday, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index was
> up about 25% so far this year, compared with a roughly 1% drop in the S&P 500. Spot
> gold was up nearly 9% year to date here on Thursday.
> Investors use stocks as a way to double down, betting both that gold will rally and
> that the individual companies will perform well as they benefit from lower costs,
> including cheaper energy prices.
> But many money managers say they have now pared back their holdings or stepped to
> the sidelines. Drivers of gains such as uncertainty in the global economy and volatile
> moves in currencies are set to fade, they say.
> "The current hot topics of European quantitative easing and the Swiss franc
> will become history in a week's time, and gold will top out," said Neil
> Gregson, a fund manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, overseeing US$2.5 billion in
> natural-resources investments. "When it does, I think these gold stocks are going to
> fall back very aggressively."
> Mr. Gregson was buying gold throughout all of last year. The metal now accounts for
> about 20% of his portfolio, up from about 13%, but he says he has stopped buying and is
> waiting before taking his next move.
> "Gold is certainly at the forefront of our discussions because every day it
> doesn't fall, the sector seems to go up another percent or two," he said.
> "The thing is, it's now a trade--a very crowded trade."
> Investors like Mr. Gregson say the rally is running out of steam given the recovery
> in the U.S. economy and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest
> rates. The metal is typically bought in times of distress; it generates no yield, so
> increases in rates on safe securities such as U.S. Treasury debt tend to weigh on the
> price.
> Gold rallied to a five-month high of US$1,305 an ounce earlier this week, but then
> pulled back below US$1,295. Thursday morning in New York, spot gold rose as high as $1305
> in response to confirmation that the European Central Bank will buy large amounts of
> government debt to pump money into the economy in order to create growth, boost prices
> and forestall deflation.
> Some investors see gold as a better store of value than currencies or government
> bonds during periods of monetary easing.
> A benchmark index for gold-mining stocks in Australia--second only to China among
> gold-producing countries--has risen 28% since the start of 2015, but slipped Thursday
> after reaching a 10-month high intraday earlier.
> Last week, money flowed out of the world's biggest gold exchange-traded
> funds--typically considered to be less reactive to swings in price--implying some fatigue
> among investors.
> Many fund managers say they can't see a more substantial rally in gold stocks
> without a further jump in gold prices.
> Ric Ronge, senior resources fund manager at Pengana Capital, said he expects the
> market to become increasingly volatile after the sharp rally of recent weeks.
> "Now is certainly the opportunity to trade it around a little bit: Buy when
> they're low and sell when they're higher," said Mr. Ronge. "It is
> going to be a bumpy ride."
> To be sure, the continued rise in gold-mining indices suggests few investors are
> dumping shares in any big way. After years spent in the shadow of gold, as investors
> chose to buy the metal itself, rather than firms that produce it, miners last year sprung
> back into favor, driven by stronger earnings and cuts to mining costs, and helped toward
> year-end by falling oil prices.
> In Australia, investors became increasingly upbeat on the sector after a fall in the
> local currency meant miners were earning more for each ounce of gold they produced.
> "I remain positive on the sector in the short- to medium-term," but
> cashing in on some of the profits made during the rally is "a logical step,"
> said Market Matters investment advisor Alexander Aguilan. The company advises private
> investors and self-managed pension funds on behalf of Shaw Stockbroking, one of
> Australia's largest independent stockbrokers.
> He said he has cut his holdings in gold stocks, including Australia's largest
> listed gold miner, Newcrest Mining Ltd.
> Others are simply keeping their powder dry.
> "It has had a great run, but you really have to wonder if it's
> sustainable," said Matt Riordan, a Sydney-based portfolio manager at Paradice
> Investment Management, which has a total of around 8 billion Australian dollars (US$6.5
> billion) in assets under management. He has held his exposure steady throughout, but says
> he's now "very cautious" on the outlook for the sector.
> "We just aren't convinced gold is out of the woods," he said.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Taking a bit of a hammer today but has held up well in light of the DX going vertical from it's magical lift-off in July?




In $AU terms still above $1600


----------



## notting

US$Gold sitting on a little support at around 1279 and with Putin's Gangsters murdering Ukrainians and taking over airports, Gold may stay a little appealing so taking some profits on Fridays shorting of spikes.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> US$Gold sitting on a little support at around 1279 and with Putin's Gangsters murdering Ukrainians and taking over airports, Gold may stay a little appealing so taking some profits on Fridays shorting of spikes.




I'm not sure I can separate the World Cop from the Dictatorship - who is less evil? Depends who's propaganda you have been brought up with and have been indoctrinated with? The Anglo-American junta would like all to believe that their enemies are our enemies too - I like to make up my own mind about that based on evidence.......

Looks like the cb'ers have continued with the formula of becoming _the_ bond market entirely with zirp & now nirp as a consequence to enable their government masters to fund their constituents unsustainable lifestyles.


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm not sure I can separate the World Cop from the Dictatorship - who is less evil? Depends who's propaganda you have been brought up with and have been indoctrinated with?  - I like to make up my own mind about that based on evidence.......




From that, you just sound confused. On the one hand you make your own mind up contrary to what the evidence, from the horses mouth is - "We are not in Ukraine," (words, propaganda) evidence clearly shows Putin is all over Ukraine. 

Regardless, if you think it's all just propaganda well the market will and is behaving to it, as it normally does, making the point an irrelevant waist of mental space and a distraction from the way the game plays. 

Considering whether to trim your shorts on gold, because Putin is going harder into Ukraine, according news all over the world, is relevant and spiked gold off it's lows in the first place - is part of the game - you need to make your mind up about that.
The grossly overweight doughnut eating world cop seems be less engaged in his job than ever, barley gives a crap and seems that unless he gets attacked he does bugger all and has a history of being the worst world cop ever -  Pearl Harbor comes to mind - Perhaps we should do something after all! 

Consider whether the propaganda has been unwittingly swallowed by those thinking the cop is out there.

Good luck with learning to think, doing it might help before making up your mind in the future.


----------



## notting

Where are these gold stocks in relation to their 200 moving day average indicated by shorter red line to the right of each chart.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gold $AU1660 - Thank you Mr Stevens & Co - taking from the savers & giving to the debtors. And gold bugs, in an indirect sort of way. The property bubble bust will be spectacular at least?


----------



## Gordon7

I think it interesting (more than interesting actually) that Gold in $A terms is only about 12% off its all time highs set in 2011, yet Gold stocks in Australia are on average multiple times below their peaks set in 2011/2012. Sentiment is still largely bearish or skeptical and capital wants to head for the time being into other places like the $US, high yielding stocks and the bond market. Yet companies are undergoing cost-cutting measures and becoming more efficient - leaner and meaner.

I don't have any Gold stocks at present because I believe Gold is still in a downtrend. I am in the camp that believes that once the market loses faith in Govt/central banks (watch the sovereign bond markets), that Gold will once again have its day in the sun. I hope to have a sizable investment in place around the time that comes about. We're talking about an investment lasting years.

My opinion anyway.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gordon, at what point and price would entice you to buy, bearing in mind that possibly once it is apparent to the general population that the cb's don't actually have a clue, that some sizeable gains in gold won't already have taken place? Interesting to hear your thoughts.

As to gold equities, there has been a very trade-able bounce off oversold lows and is the best sector so far this year. And yes, their prices do not reflect the higher margin that is being attained from the price in AU terms and cost efficiencies (and the oil price).

Although could be some profit taking on the $40 hair cut today - a buy opportunity?


----------



## Gordon7

Uncle Festivus said:


> Gordon, at what point and price would entice you to buy, bearing in mind that possibly once it is apparent to the general population that the cb's don't actually have a clue, that some sizeable gains in gold won't already have taken place? Interesting to hear your thoughts.
> 
> As to gold equities, there has been a very trade-able bounce off oversold lows and is the best sector so far this year. And yes, their prices do not reflect the higher margin that is being attained from the price in AU terms and cost efficiencies (and the oil price).
> 
> Although could be some profit taking on the $40 hair cut today - a buy opportunity?




Good question Uncle F. 

I don't for one minute believe I will get in at the bottom or at the most opportune time. I may most likely scale in. I'll be watching Gold in particular (would love to see new lows and a washout), the bond markets and Europe (firstly) to capitulate. 

Should I truely miss the bottom then I have to be prepared to join the already moving train. Too many variable moving parts.

In the near term though and even according to my own chart analysis I can see a potential opportunity for a tradeable bounce. My dotted line in the chart below is critical to this. I just don't like any signal at this stage though forming within the 2 year down sloping channel.


----------



## Bintang

Gordon7 said:


> Good question Uncle F.
> 
> I don't for one minute believe I will get in at the bottom or at the most opportune time. I may most likely scale in. I'll be watching Gold in particular (would love to see new lows and a washout), the bond markets and Europe (firstly) to capitulate.




Gordon, when you do buy are you paying with AUD or USD?
I've had this type of discussion previously with Ann.
For me personally, the USD price of gold is irrelevant.
Right now is not such a good time to buy using AUD and my next entry will have to wait until the AUD/USD exchange rate heads back up to around 0.90


----------



## zac

Bintang said:


> Gordon, when you do buy are you paying with AUD or USD?
> I've had this type of discussion previously with Ann.
> For me personally, the USD price of gold is irrelevant.
> Right now is not such a good time to buy using AUD and my next entry will have to wait until the AUD/USD exchange rate heads back up to around 0.90




Im surprised no one talks about currency hedging, people seem to think its difficult.

AUDUSD at 0.90? Do you have a view of when that would be?
Im not sure it would happen anytime soon and when I say soon, matter of years.


----------



## qldfrog

zac said:


> AUDUSD at 0.90? Do you have a view of when that would be?
> Im not sure it would happen anytime soon and when I say soon, matter of years.



or decades


----------



## zac

qldfrog said:


> or decades




nah, the USD will have collapsed by then


----------



## Bintang

zac said:


> AUDUSD at 0.90? Do you have a view of when that would be?
> Im not sure it would happen anytime soon and when I say soon, matter of years.




I think months rather than years – depending on how long it takes the USD gold price to get past $1400.
See chart.


----------



## Gordon7

Bintang said:


> Gordon, when you do buy are you paying with AUD or USD?
> I've had this type of discussion previously with Ann.
> For me personally, the USD price of gold is irrelevant.
> Right now is not such a good time to buy using AUD and my next entry will have to wait until the AUD/USD exchange rate heads back up to around 0.90



Hi Bintang,

The investment I have in mind will be in Australian Gold stocks through the ASX but may also consider a small investment of US Gold stocks on the US market through my IB account. 

In my opinion, whether purchasing or holding Australian gold stocks in $A, the $USD price is still relevant to some extent and here's my reasoning. For the most part gold whether traded as spot or in the futures market is valued in $USD terms. Countries with a different currency will then convert the gold price into their own local currency. What makes the $USD price important in my mind is the _*sentiment *_attached to whether the price is rising or falling in the traded markets. This is why we can have Australian miners undervalued even in $A terms when gold is falling and the opposite may well be the case when gold is in a bull market. Alternatively, you could think of it as the stock market _getting ahead of the trend_. This is my opinion anyway. 

At this stage I have no idea where the $A will be in 6 months let alone 1 or more years. There are so many interacting variables (interest rates being just one of them) that will come into play who knows when in the future, that I would be guessing. So I am unlikely to take this into account or hedge. If I am correct in my assessment that gold will return to a bull market lasting years - its going to take that long to unwind from the mess the central banks have created, then the returns that can be generated will more than offset any loses due to currency movements, by a long shot.


----------



## gordon2007

Slightly off topic here, whilst I rarely post any more on here I just want to be clear 'gordon7' should not be confused with being me.


----------



## Gordon7

gordon2007 said:


> Slightly off topic here, whilst I rarely post any more on here I just want to be clear 'gordon7' should not be confused with being me.



It's a good thing then that I didn't add my postcode to my name, because I'd be 'gordon2017'


----------



## Bintang

Gordon7 said:


> It's a good thing then that I didn't add my postcode to my name, because I'd be 'gordon2017'




Strewth, two Gordons and a postcode. This could be a portent. Maybe 2017 is the year that gold reaches $10,000/oz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Unfortunately for us we don't get to back the truck up one last time as the $AU holds $1500? Although still tempting at this price as compared to what is coming? 

It is interesting to note the 'perceptions' going on here - the perception that the US is recovering, if you believe the jobs numbers. The perception that there will be a US rate hike 'very soon'. The flight to the US dollar and all that entails ie smashing US exporters and importing the dreaded (according to academics and bobble heads) deflation.

And yet again we get another step towards the time when the truth will be revealed to all......and the fiat ponzi is exposed. For equities, it looks like the margin calls are kicking in, let's see who can hold their nerve this time and BTFD, yet again?


----------



## notting

Lack of Grexit on Friday seems to have had a bit of a dampener on the gold price.
It's only been put off for 3 weeks though and the slippery eals look like they are going to try to pay the interest so they get to put the hand in the kitty again and at least look like they had a go before they get booted out.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gold equities outperforming.

The rest have not discounted the inevitable? καμένο τοστ.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Another month, another kick.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Another long consolidation for gold......


----------



## AverageJoe

Uncle Festivus said:


> Another long consolidation for gold......
> 
> View attachment 62760




Is it showing something?


----------



## explod

AverageJoe said:


> Is it showing something?




Bottom in in my view.   China's accumulation and talk of yaun backing interesting.   Lot of louder press on gold and silver price manipulation another positive.   Bonds looking dodgy,  countries going under with debt,  Greece default seems  athand.   So interesting times. 

My accumulation of physical has been a long road and feel fortunate to have had such low prices,  particularly for pre 46 silver coins. 

Anyhow,  we will see.


----------



## Ann

So far my take on the POG appears to be down looking at the charts. The long term trending support is now acting as a resistance line. The shorter term overhead trending resistance coming from September 2012 remains as a resistance yet to be broken through. The $US1000 support level is still acting as a floor (chart to follow).

The POG in Australian dollars isn't at all exciting either, in fact it is currently around the same price it was in July 2011, not a great investment as you get no divie payments and inflation has marched on a wee bit as well. Mind you I am sure it is a comfort for any Aussie prepers out there, they can bury it with their stash of .22 rifles, shotguns and 5000 cans of baked beans!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> So far my take on the POG appears to be down looking at the charts. The long term trending support is now acting as a resistance line. The shorter term overhead trending resistance coming from September 2012 remains as a resistance yet to be broken through. The $US1000 support level is still acting as a floor (chart to follow).
> 
> The POG in Australian dollars isn't at all exciting either, in fact it is currently around the same price it was in July 2011, not a great investment as you get no divie payments and inflation has marched on a wee bit as well. Mind you I am sure it is a comfort for any Aussie prepers out there, they can bury it with their stash of .22 rifles, shotguns and 5000 cans of baked beans!




The Aussie price is making a nice margin for producers, still not reflected in their share prices though?

Cash in hand pays no div or interest either, yet it's purchasing power is constantly being eroded.

Some more lines on charts?  The current price action would be flattening the poly, possibly for another multi year bottom. Shorter term a nice 'bottom of the bowl' as well as an inverted H&S formation.....these things take time?

If gold was going to tank below $1100 then it would have by now with all the 'recoveries' going on around the world for the last 8 years? And they are still jawboning about when the first rate rise will happen because of all the great data? While ever the globe vacillates around zero GDP (not that it's a reliable indicator) they haven't got the balls to increase rates to pop all the bubbles......


----------



## AverageJoe

Uncle Festivus said:


> The Aussie price is making a nice margin for producers, still not reflected in their share prices though?
> 
> Cash in hand pays no div or interest either, yet it's purchasing power is constantly being eroded.
> 
> Some more lines on charts?  The current price action would be flattening the poly, possibly for another multi year bottom. Shorter term a nice 'bottom of the bowl' as well as an inverted H&S formation.....these things take time?
> 
> If gold was going to tank below $1100 then it would have by now with all the 'recoveries' going on around the world for the last 8 years? And they are still jawboning about when the first rate rise will happen because of all the great data? While ever the globe vacillates around zero GDP (not that it's a reliable indicator) they haven't got the balls to increase rates to pop all the bubbles......




Is that plastic surgery gone wrong on cleavage?


----------



## AverageJoe

explod said:


> Bottom in in my view.   China's accumulation and talk of yaun backing interesting.   Lot of louder press on gold and silver price manipulation another positive.   Bonds looking dodgy,  countries going under with debt,  Greece default seems  athand.   So interesting times.
> 
> My accumulation of physical has been a long road and feel fortunate to have had such low prices,  particularly for pre 46 silver coins.
> 
> Anyhow,  we will see.




Is your physical paying a dividend besides holding cost? Or are you waiting to use them when US economy implode. I suggest maybe some bake beans and beef jerky with a handy mad max movie for survival kit? 

I rather use fiat and make more fiat through Oz gold stocks.


----------



## notting

Positive moves in some goldies today.
Given the awful sales figures that came out of the US last night, and the aGreekment, US$ needs to come off and FED needs to sit tight.  Probably why oilers did OK today too.


----------



## notting

Interesting positive moves in some goldies today.
Given the awful sales figures that came out of the US last night, and the aGreekment, US$ needs to come off and FED needs to sit tight.  Probably why oilers did OK today too despite Iran being allowed to turn the hose back on.


----------



## explod

AverageJoe said:


> Is your physical paying a dividend besides holding cost? Or are you waiting to use them when US economy implode. I suggest maybe some bake beans and beef jerky with a handy mad max movie for survival kit?
> 
> I rather use fiat and make more fiat through Oz gold stocks.




Yep,  love it and continuing to stack each pay day. 

Gold looks like going lower from here.   It is just not political for it to jump out of the bag. 

We read that silver coins in the US are selling out on the first day of release. 

A deal with Iran now allows thier oil to prop the shortage to western nations.  Iraq too must be cotrolled controlled for the oil,  russia must be kept down for thier audacity to set up supply lines outside the west. 

When currencies backed by paper push them to the wall and disintigrate,  only good land,  valuable works of art and gold will maintain value. 

Sure no dividends or interest (which is not much anyway)  or trailing fees or advisers chop makes it ok for me. 

My favorite at the moment,  pre 46 silver coins.  2 shillings a great buy.   But getting very scarce.


----------



## sinner

AverageJoe said:


> Is your physical paying a dividend besides holding cost? Or are you waiting to use them when US economy implode. I suggest maybe some bake beans and beef jerky with a handy mad max movie for survival kit?
> 
> I rather use fiat and make more fiat through Oz gold stocks.




Um, are there Oz gold stocks out  there paying massive dividends or providing massive capital gains or something? Last I checked, out of NCM, AGG, KCN, TRY, IAU, MML, only Newcrest was even above its 52 week average price and trading at huge volatility.

Comparing the returns of AUD allocators who bought physical gold versus those who bought gold mining shares (on any exchange, anywhere in the world), you can only imagine that it is the gold mining investors who are eating the baked beans...

For those who prefer facts to the normal ramblings on this thread, anyone can see that (like pretty much every mining operation for any metal be it industrial or otherwise), the miner is a leveraged bet on the gold price, i.e. it has a high beta to the price of gold. So it goes down more than the price of gold when gold is going down, and goes up more than the price of gold when the price is going up.




The major problem with this, at least for investors in any high beta asset, is that high beta is a huge drag on geometric returns (i.e. if the price of Newcrest declines 75% from $40 to $10, it will take a 300% increase just to get back to $40).

This is simple mathematics, and the disastrous results of betting on high beta assets can be seen in pretty much every avenue (gambling [fav to win beats lottery tickets], stocks [low vol/beta beats high vol/beta], bonds [investment grade beats high yield], options [selling vol beats buying vol], etc).

You can see the truth in this by looking at another asset which has a high beta to gold, which is silver. The returns on silver are similarly disastrous to the returns on gold miners. 

Gold is unique amongst metals and the commodity complex in general:
* It has the highest stock to flow ratio of all commodities. 
* It almost always has the lowest realised volatility (providing a boost to geometric returns). 
* It has almost no industrial use, and infinite shelf life, allowing it to be hoarded without constraining industry (unlike silver).
* Gold is provably a financial asset (held on the balance sheets of every Central Bank), unlike any other commodity.

Gold mining stocks hold none of these properties.

I do believe gold miners hold a role in portfolios, but only as a substitute for Government debt (i.e. total return asset), proportional to the prevailing real interest rate (i.e. if real interest rate is high, hold more gold miners and less bonds, if real interest rate is low, hold less gold miners and more bonds) and in conjunction with Utilities sector stocks. So, in the current environment I would not be holding more than a few percent of total net worth in gold miners.

Disclaimer: I own a small amount of NCM and a more substantial amount of physical gold.


----------



## AverageJoe

_ Last I checked, out of NCM, AGG, KCN, TRY, IAU, MML, only Newcrest was even above its 52 week average price and trading at huge volatility.
_

Try NST EVN SAR and you may see that they are not stuck to the floor.

People who buy physical gold as if they are "true money" will keep them as insurance policy meaning they only spend the euphoria until 2012 when it crashed. Meanwhile you pay the insurance and  vault charges on a year basis unless you hide it at home. You then have risk of robbery. The last 3 years of hold saw your value haircut of 33%? Meanwhile some goldies are having capital gain as well some small dividends. 

Have a look at gold right now and you see it has just bounced the Nov 2014 low, just. I am waiting for that decisive break then I would be looking to jump in for a short. 

Gold to me is just another commodity now having a good run in AUD quote and so the goldies with good margin would have maintained that margin meaning their SP will keep value. The price of gold is like any other commodity, rapid exponential rise and equal fall like their cousins, zinc, nickel, coal, Io, crude, Uranium all wenth through the euphoria and doom. There is nothing so special of gold except those doom seeking investors seeking the collapse of USD and US economy. Look at the Dow/SP500 and Nasdaq (broken the high) for some big gains as well as dividend for holding. You can't beat a bull trend and not even Grexit interferes. AllI hear is conspiracies and manipulation talk when it does not go up when there is so called debt destruction contagion in europe blah blah. 

Hence I own some gold stocks exposed to AUD revenues so I have no fear shorting paper gold USD and will be cheering it to fall to my target.


----------



## DeepState

AverageJoe said:


> People who buy physical gold as if they are "true money" will keep them as insurance policy meaning they only spend the euphoria until 2012 when it crashed. Meanwhile you pay the insurance...




This concept of pricing insurance has come up a few times.  Just curious as to how the insurance aspects (which has also been referred to as an option premium by others in this thread) have been determined when these claims are made.... They are usually said to be too high to justify holding gold as a monetary alternative.

Usually, when an insurance contract is written, the contracts have specifications whose key clauses include:
1. Definition of the insured item;
2. Estimation and definition of loss in related to this item;
3. Deductible;
4. Maximum loss insured; and
5. Time period of insurance. 

Once these are known a premium is determined which may or may not be taken up by the customer.  These features have a direct link to options pricing.  

What are the equivalent features for this insurance policy for gold?

What is the very long term value of an option on gold?  How is this justified?  Why is this price "too expensive".


--

I think that comparing gold to a gold company is like comparing cash to a bank share, or comparing an insurance policy with an insurer.  Sure, you can compare them and express relative merits, but they serve very different purposes and have quite different characteristics.


----------



## DeepState

How timely:

What is the country with the largest foreign reserves in the world doing with these assets?

China has just released details into its gold reserve holdings.  This from today's FT:

"China ended years of speculation about its official gold holdings by revealing an almost 60 per cent jump in its reserves since 2009."

"The purchases show how China is seeking to diversify its reserves away from the US dollar, at a time when the price of gold is falling.

" 'Gold has a special risk *return characteristic, and at specific times is not a bad investment,' the People’s Bank of China said."



Perhaps the world's most dynamic major economy, with the greatest intensity of investment into productive assets under a stack of measures and also largest buyer of gold can see the merits of monetary gold as outlined in some posts.  I notice that no-one is commenting about iron ore, copper or coal in official reserves, commodities which are absolutely vital for China. Maybe there is something about gold which separates it from industrial and agricultural commodities...


----------



## AverageJoe

DeepState said:


> --
> 
> I think that comparing gold to a gold company is like comparing cash to a bank share, or comparing an insurance policy with an insurer.  Sure, you can compare them and express relative merits, but they serve very different purposes and have quite different characteristics.




If gold rally 200 bucks from here, would it be a exponential rise in the share price of the gold stock or linear?


----------



## AverageJoe

DeepState said:


> How timely:
> 
> What is the country with the largest foreign reserves in the world doing with these assets?
> 
> China has just released details into its gold reserve holdings.  This from today's FT:
> 
> "China ended years of speculation about its official gold holdings by revealing an almost 60 per cent jump in its reserves since 2009."
> 
> "The purchases show how China is seeking to diversify its reserves away from the US dollar, at a time when the price of gold is falling.
> 
> " 'Gold has a special risk *return characteristic, and at specific times is not a bad investment,' the People’s Bank of China said."
> 
> 
> 
> Perhaps the world's most dynamic major economy, with the greatest intensity of investment into productive assets under a stack of measures and also largest buyer of gold can see the merits of monetary gold as outlined in some posts.  I notice that no-one is commenting about iron ore, copper or coal in official reserves, commodities which are absolutely vital for China. Maybe there is something about gold which separates it from industrial and agricultural commodities...




They have been accumulating gold for many years according to gold bug reports posted everywhere. They are accumulating as an insurance hedge against their over exposed US T bonds? If you use that argument then it makes sense. If they are following the goldbug mind set that US economy would implode and collapse then I think they would also be sucked into the death spiral from their 3T$ US TB so that physical would be a good diversification but would not save them.


----------



## DeepState

AverageJoe said:


> If gold rally 200 bucks from here, would it be a exponential rise in the share price of the gold stock or linear?




Gold stocks are a real option on gold.  So, neither universally linear nor exponential.


----------



## DeepState

AverageJoe said:


> They have been accumulating gold for many years according to gold bug reports posted everywhere. They are accumulating as an insurance hedge against their over exposed US T bonds? If you use that argument then it makes sense. If they are following the goldbug mind set that US economy would implode and collapse then I think they would also be sucked into the death spiral from their 3T$ US TB so that physical would be a good diversification but would not save them.




Yep.  Then I'm on the same page as you in broad sweep.  Gold is an insurance against monetary mishap.  I think the bigger risks lie not with the USD, but with the JPY and EUR.  We are going to see a very major dislocation of the JPY at some stage.  Their position cannot be recovered.


----------



## AverageJoe

DeepState said:


> Yep.  Then I'm on the same page as you in broad sweep.  Gold is an insurance against monetary mishap.  I think the bigger risks lie not with the USD, but with the JPY and EUR.  We are going to see a very major dislocation of the JPY at some stage.  Their position cannot be recovered.




Gold as an insurance against any black swan event is not a given either. Grexit and ShComp had the opposite effect. WRT SHcomp, it is similar to GFC where investors just liquidate profitable asset to plug a debt hole. 

Jap Economy has been talked to death about implosion. If you want the alarmist to get things going just view some Kyle Bass videos! 

The fall in gold this past few weeks is telling me that despite Yellen indicating Fed rate hike, the world is continuing through the low growth (inflation) cycle even with so many years of stimulus around the world. Confirmed by sell off in crude and uncertainties from the Chinese economy. That natural inflation hedge is looking like a hope at the moment and the gold bugs have started talking about Chinese accumulation of physical.


----------



## sinner

I had written a huge and long post trying to explain all of this but then I decided against posting it.

The truth is out there for those who care to understand, but I have gotten into too many arguments on this thread as it is. It tires me no end to read the posts of people who crow over declines in price of USD gold on to allocators of physical in AUD (on ASF) with a serious face. Maybe I would bother to listen to you if you were even looking at the right chart.

So here is the abbreviated version: and then I am done on this:

What is gold? 

Money has 3 roles. Store of Value, Medium of Exchange, Unit of Account. Using one asset to fulfil all those roles leads to trouble. Whether it be gold, or the USD. Gold should be the Store of Value (global reserve asset), against which the Medium of Exchange and hence Unit of Account (e.g. USD, Euro, JPY) float in value.

Gold can be considered a commodity in the same sense that everything is a commodity when viewed through the lens of supply and demand. However gold demonstrates many properties (all embodied in a high stock to flow ratio) which are not present in any other commodity. Throughout recent history, the marginal price of an ounce of physical gold has tracked the price implied by various gold units (e.g. GLD ETF, COMEX GC, LBMA OTC, FOREX OTC) but sooner or later I expect those gold units will be completely written off while physical gold becomes the global reserve asset du jour.

So I guess in one sense gold can be considered insurance against the decline of the USD as a reserve asset, but realistically I do not view physical gold as an insurance contract.

The way I like to consider physical gold is simply "payment in full for good and services rendered" (in this case the good rendered being deferred consumption), and recently I have been modeling this in my head as a duration curve of sorts:

Stocks = Infinite duration
Bonds = Long term duration
Cash = Short term duration
Physical gold = 0 duration

Through this view you can consider gold mining stocks at best to be like utility stocks.

Here are some links from the FOFOA blog for those interested:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/12/focal-point-gold.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/its-flow-stupid.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/flow-addendum.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/inflation-or-hyperinflation.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-2.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/yo-warren-b-you-are-so-og.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/euro-gold.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/11/moneyness.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/moneyness-2-money-is-credit.html


----------



## craft

DeepState said:


> Gold is an insurance against monetary mishap.




But is a productive asset not better insurance?  Unless you think a monetary mishap is going to destroy the physical productive economy and if that does happen then what does your gold buy? Liquidity insurance maybe?


----------



## Wysiwyg

I notice POG hit the same US$ price as in November last year on Friday. Pin point support? What a laugh! Like any "asset", if you bought high just hold it for awhile longer.


----------



## sinner

Wysiwyg said:


> I notice POG hit the same US$ price as in November last year on Friday. Pin point support? What a laugh! Like any "asset", if you bought high just hold it for awhile longer.




O noe, woe is me, for all the unlevered physical golds I have been buying since 2007 with my productive surplus every month are crushing me with the price collapse...  

Wasting time with morons on ASF? What a laugh!


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> O noe, woe is me, for all the unlevered physical golds I have been buying since 2007 with my productive surplus are crushing me with the price collapse...
> 
> Wasting time with morons on ASF? What a laugh!




Price collapse? My 100 year chart has gold price trending upwards. Also, answer the previous posters question smart ar'sss.


----------



## sinner

Wysiwyg said:


> Price collapse? My 100 year chart has gold price trending upwards. Also, answer the previous posters question smart ar'sss.




Like I said, for those that care, the truth is out there to be understood. I even included a whole bunch of links which explain this topic far better than I ever could (for those actually interested in understanding, won't provide much value to idiots). 

But most people are sure they know and understand everything. So why bother researching? Just make useless forum posts about something you apparently don't even care about. That'll show 'em!

Perhaps you feel like concepts which can't be spoonfed to you in the form of a simplistic forum post wouldn't possibly represent reality.

They do.


----------



## cynic

sinner said:


> Like I said, for those that care, the truth is out there to be understood. I even included a whole bunch of links which explain this topic far better than I ever could (for those actually interested in understanding, won't provide much value to idiots).
> 
> But most people are sure they know and understand everything. So why bother researching? Just make useless forum posts about something you apparently don't even care about. That'll show 'em!
> 
> Perhaps you feel like concepts which can't be spoonfed to you in the form of a simplistic forum post wouldn't possibly represent reality.
> 
> They do.




I haven't delved into the intricacies of the gold market as deeply as your good self, nor have I read all the articles for which you've helpfully provided links.

Would you be willing to provide a brief summation on the perspective/s you've gleaned from digesting those articles?

I'm interested to see if any of them touch on one of my fanciful theories about the driver/s behind gold's price behavior in recent years.


----------



## DeepState

craft said:


> But is a productive asset not better insurance?  Unless you think a monetary mishap is going to destroy the physical productive economy and if that does happen then what does your gold buy? Liquidity insurance maybe?




1. Liquidity insurance
2. Hedge for risk of material and disorderly inflation
3. Durable store of wealth

I think gold is a better put option for truly extreme events than a financial put option.  From time to time, it has been more liquid than just about anything else available to hand.  When you need to consume continuously, it is important that you can get/pay-for these goods (or services) without interruption.  Gold plays a role in insuring against such distress.  It has done so in distressed situations where there is significant doubt about the acceptability of existing fiat currency in circulation.  The situation in Greece will highlight that sometimes you can't even get hold of the currency even if the currency itself is not acutely questioned. It would be your first best alternative in the event that fiat is not available.  I'm going to pass on explaining why Grexit risk did not spike gold.

Even if you don’t personally expect to be in that situation, the fact that others may be still gives some weight to gold as a hedge because you may be exposed to these economies via other investments.

I think of gold as a currency in waiting. In doing so, I am simply taking a leaf out of the reserve managers’ actual practices.  If you need a hedge against regular and orderly inflation, an indexed linked bond works much better than gold. Gold serves as an effective hedge against the risk of unexpected and significant disorderly inflation.  In these situations, historically, gold sometimes supplants fiat…before fiat returns again subsequently for various reasons.  One of the key strengths of gold as a currency (low flow to stock) is also one of its greater weaknesses.  Fiat (can change flow to stock pretty quickly) has the opposite strengths and weaknesses.  The world seems to vacillate between the two.  Hence, it seems to be a durable store of wealth, in a way which fiat does not seem to be.

Ownership in a well priced productive asset is expected to do better than gold over the long term and is thus a better form of insurance against insufficient wealth in most scenarios.  It is not so in every scenario.  Gold covers the tail of some truly horrendous scenarios. I cannot say that it will always function this way in an extreme scenario, but I don’t have better ideas at the moment.

I am not expecting the collapse of the existing monetary system, but I do not dismiss the potential.  Gold holdings would assist if things turned really bad and there are still things to buy…like a boat trip out. Events in Argentina, for example, will highlight that gold would have made a good alternative to their currencies which are experiencing a decent degree of distress of the type I have referred to – even if the whole system does not completely collapse.  

I have around 1-1.5% in physical gold claims.  It’s not going to protect the portfolio from a collapse of the monetary system.  It should preserve some of it if that event developed.  Meanwhile it hedges/insures some of my other financial assets.  That is a good enough reason for me to have some.


----------



## waterbottle

cynic said:


> I haven't delved into the intricacies of the gold market as deeply as your good self, nor have I read all the articles for which you've helpfully provided links.
> 
> Would you be willing to provide a brief summation on the perspective/s you've gleaned from digesting those articles?
> 
> I'm interested to see if any of them touch on one of my fanciful theories about the driver/s behind gold's price behavior in recent years.




x2 I would find this helpful


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> But most people are sure they know and understand everything. So why bother researching? Just make useless forum posts about something you apparently don't even care about. That'll show 'em!



I trade the gold price and not hold the actual although I did go detecting out Warwick way when the price was near 1k/oz. with no result. I like the look of the stuff and feel special to hold the physical but can wait 'till price is below US800.


----------



## sinner

cynic said:


> I haven't delved into the intricacies of the gold market as deeply as your good self, nor have I read all the articles for which you've helpfully provided links.
> 
> Would you be willing to provide a brief summation on the perspective/s you've gleaned from digesting those articles?
> 
> I'm interested to see if any of them touch on one of my fanciful theories about the driver/s behind gold's price behavior in recent years.




I already did in post #11195...



> I have around 1-1.5% in physical gold *claims*.




Obviously I can't give financial advice, but if it was me, I'd take delivery of at least half. Otherwise basically all you own is an obligation to settle in cash at the last known good price...


----------



## cynic

sinner said:


> I already did in post #11195...



Thanks for that. Please accept my apologies for having overlooked your earlier post.

During these tumultuous times, I can certainly appreciate that there are reasons that people choose to store some of their wealth in something that is as portable, tangible (and virtually indestructible) as physical gold.

I've been somewhat mystified by the stagnant price behavior of gold during these past few years, and in the absence of any compellingly plausible alternatives, am now leaning towards a couple of theories from the realm of conspiracy. 

However, I haven't delved into the facts as deeply as others on this forum, and as such, I am hesitant to express those theories too openly. 

Chart analysis aside, I'd be interested to hear the perspectives of others on the possible underlying causes of gold's deflation in value relative to fiat currency.


----------



## sinner

DeepState said:


> How timely:
> 
> What is the country with the largest foreign reserves in the world doing with these assets?
> 
> China has just released details into its gold reserve holdings.  This from today's FT:
> 
> "China ended years of speculation about its official gold holdings by revealing an almost 60 per cent jump in its reserves since 2009."
> 
> "The purchases show how China is seeking to diversify its reserves away from the US dollar, at a time when the price of gold is falling.
> 
> " 'Gold has a special risk *return characteristic, and at specific times is not a bad investment,' the People’s Bank of China said."




Funny the way FT put vaseline over the camera...

Ok so we all know ZH sucks and goldbugs blah blah blah whatever but as you can see from comparing the journalism, it doesn't hurt to get multiple perspectives:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...dings-57-one-month-first-official-update-2009


> *From the PBOC*
> Gold as a special asset, with multiple attributes financial and commodities, together with other assets to help regulate and optimize the overall risk-return characteristics of international reserves portfolio. From the perspective of long-term and strategic perspective, if necessary, dynamically adjusted international reserves portfolio allocation, safety, liquidity and increasing the value of international reserve assets.




Thanks ZH! Meanwhile, how is this for an amazing tidbit:



> In a rare comment on gold, Yi Gang, the central bank’s deputy governor, said in March 2013 that *the country could only invest as much as 2 percent of its foreign-exchange holdings in gold because the market was too small*. The press office of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing didn’t respond to a fax seeking comment sent on April 14.




Wowee. Wish someone had pointed that out to me in 2013! 

So, back then the Chinese FX reserves were sitting at approximately $3.5tn. Let's round it off to 3.5 for the sake of a quick thought experiment.

(1,000,000,000,000Ã—3.5)Ã—0.02 = 70,000,000,000


----------



## notting

The market was expecting the Chinese reserves to be a little more than what was announced.  The announcements are lies so you shouldn't take any notice of them any way.

They dumped on the market along with the conservative announcement, to ramp it down and break technical lows.  They probably shorted all kinds of gold related instruments last week.



> "There was some heavy selling on the Shanghai Gold Exchange this morning," says ANZ precious metals analyst Victor Thianpiriya.
> 
> "Half an hour after the market opened we saw 5 tonnes of gold sold through the Shangahi gold exchange, which is way above normal levels.
> 
> "I don't believe this was a result of fundamentals. Silver prices usually move in tandem with the gold price. That wasn't the case this morning.




I guess they will be doing alot of buying over the coming period at down ramped levels, then they will start printing money and lowering the Yaun.


----------



## sinner

notting said:


> The market was expecting the Chinese reserves to be a little more than what was announced.  The announcements are lies so you shouldn't take any notice of them any way.




I don't want to argue about it with you, but my 2c is that the announcement is not a lie, for the following reasons:

* The announcement was not random, it happened in preparation for IMF stuff, along with updated announcements for other key macro metrics. 
* The Chinese have been saying forever, openly, that their gold as a % of foreign reserves was puny compared to the average country and to the US. They have stated they want to be #1 in gold reserves, first step: get more than average (they are wayyyy below average), then get more than the US.
* The reporting is completely voluntary in the sense of "what gold (or other assets) do you want to declare voluntarily as reserves for the defense of your currency". It's not China saying "this is all of our gold" under inspection from an auditor, merely them saying "this is how much gold we are willing to voluntarily declare as CB reserves". So there is no reason to lie about a voluntary report, if there is gold they are hiding they would simply not report it.


----------



## AverageJoe

Anyone still thinks gold is a buy after the flash crash Shanghai open?


----------



## skyQuake

AverageJoe said:


> Anyone still thinks gold is a buy after the flash crash Shanghai open?




Yep.


----------



## cynic

skyQuake said:


> Yep.




Is that a yep to all time frames?


----------



## notting

AverageJoe said:


> Anyone still thinks gold is a buy after the flash crash Shanghai open?




Now is the time to be getting very, very interested in it.
Watching for stability and signs it was a blow off low on China's utterly obvious down-ramp with the conservative announcement and dumping.
China will be buying and when nobody thinks inflation is on the cards anytime soon that's when the ugly duckling will rear it's head and that's alot harder to control than what the Central Banks have managed to control so far.


----------



## skyQuake

cynic said:


> Is that a yep to all time frames?




I felt tempted to write yep and leave it as that 

But its prob only a short term bounce. Feels like a HK/China fund blew up today...


----------



## sinner

notting said:


> China will be buying and when nobody thinks inflation is on the cards anytime soon that's when the ugly duckling will rear it's head and that's alot harder to control than what the Central Banks have managed to control so far.




You can see for yourself from the "wowee" quote above that the market is not big enough for China to bid without being crushed by those bids, to the tune of $70bn. 

The volume in futs was about ~$2-3bn...now I know most people think this is "the market" but the real volume in gold is in LBMA OTC and FOREX OTC markets, so who knows how crazy today was.

China is "buying" all the time, all their gold mines have various amounts of nationalised output, they track every ounce that goes in/out of mainland private holdings through SGE and so on.



> Anyone still thinks gold is a buy after the flash crash Shanghai open?




Well, I bought my monthly allocation about 5 days ago, anticipate my next buy signal to be in about 25 days...


----------



## notting

sinner said:


> The volume in futs was about ~$2-3bn...now I know most people think this is "the market" but the real volume in gold is in LBMA OTC and FOREX OTC markets, so who knows how crazy today was?




*All I need to see is this to know that.  *


----------



## AverageJoe

skyQuake said:


> I felt tempted to write yep and leave it as that
> 
> But its prob only a short term bounce. Feels like a HK/China fund blew up today...




Short term bounce off the lows today on the way back up through the long term support? 

I have 1131.46 as new resistance to be looking for short with a reversal setup should it ever test that level this week.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Slow hand clap.

Or, a topping for risky things bought with IOU nothings?


----------



## AverageJoe

If you want to take the moral high ground when trading I suggest Salvation Army?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I think markets are in the irrational phase right now. US equities at or near record highs even though revenue is missing. Nasdaq co's going through the roof even though the fundamentals don't support the valuations - deja vu last bubble bursting in 2000?



> A close reading of Google’s report reveals that the price of their main product – paid clicks – is dropping like a stone but that doesn’t matter either. What matters is that Google is working on all kinds of cool things in secret and that their new CFO was able to restrain expense growth to a paltry 13%. Yes, Google sells for 33 times trailing earnings and is growing at about 15% but still it made perfect sense for the company to gain $67 billion in market cap in one day based on that stellar performance. As for Netflix, with its 300 forward P/E, the only metric I could find in the report that was also triple digits was their cash flow. Unfortunately, it is negative and grew more so by a factor of 3.




Something big, and bad, is about to happen to the things that fiat bulls hold dear & close?

For me, it's not a time to add to gold as it's still $1490 in AU terms, but yet gold equities got the usual full sell off in response to the US price dip. Gold equities are still way above the last cycle lows, having beaten the rest of the market since the start of the year. 

As for the gold price slam, at his stage all roads lead to yet another fat finger from the usual culprits trying to smash CONfidence in gold while trying to elevate CONfidence in fiat, and most importantly, $USD's, while central banks try to extricate themselves from $USD holdings in an orderly manner.


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> For me, it's not a time to add to gold as it's still $1490 in AU terms, but yet gold equities got the usual full sell off in response to the US price dip. Gold equities are still way above the last cycle lows, having beaten the rest of the market since the start of the year.
> 
> As for the gold price slam, at his stage all roads lead to yet another fat finger from the usual culprits trying to smash CONfidence in gold while trying to elevate CONfidence in fiat, and most importantly, $USD's, while central banks try to extricate themselves from $USD holdings in an orderly manner.




This is the same question I used to ask explod all the time.

How can you logically reconcile your views on gold with holding gold equities that represent the same kind of currency risk as any other equity (so why wouldn't you hold other equities with better prospects?!) and at the same time, any profit derived from a major move in gold is going to be in the paper you seem to believe will crumble and most likely as a result of that crumbling...

So let's follow the "logic". Gold is good, paper money is bad. Therefore, I will buy gold mining stocks, so that when paper collapses, the gold price will go up proportionally, shooting my gold miners through the roof, at which point I will be able to cash out for a nice heft *paper* profit. 

My 2c is that if gold ever did trounce paper in such a fashion, all the gold miners would either be immediately nationalised, or taxed at a huge price per ounce of profitable extraction. Ergo, they might make a good utility stock style investment, at a maximum few % of net portfolio size.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> This is the same question I used to ask explod all the time.
> 
> How can you logically reconcile your views on gold with holding gold equities that represent the same kind of currency risk as any other equity (so why wouldn't you hold other equities with better prospects?!) and at the same time, any profit derived from a major move in gold is going to be in the paper you seem to believe will crumble and most likely as a result of that crumbling...
> 
> So let's follow the "logic". Gold is good, paper money is bad. Therefore, I will buy gold mining stocks, so that when paper collapses, the gold price will go up proportionally, shooting my gold miners through the roof, at which point I will be able to cash out for a nice heft *paper* profit.
> 
> My 2c is that if gold ever did trounce paper in such a fashion, all the gold miners would either be immediately nationalised, or taxed at a huge price per ounce of profitable extraction. Ergo, they might make a good utility stock style investment, at a maximum few % of net portfolio size.




I was merely comparing the gold price to the performance of gold equities this time round ie they are higher now with the gold price lower than last sell off - relative sentiment. Until & when the time comes, you have to be a part of :The System:? I don't just trade gold and gold stocks.....although at the cycle peak I was up some 20% or so - sell and convert to gold?

It's more about how much fiat you can make _and_ convert to gold before the event?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Alternatively, "someone" drops 5 tonne of gold into the "market" and the price only drops $20???

"Someone" else just got a bargain???


----------



## rimtas

Don't be fooled, Gold is approaching a bottom


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Alternatively, "someone" drops 5 tonne of gold into the "market" and the price only drops $20???
> 
> "Someone" else just got a bargain???




Of paper fluff when there were few traders around. 

The stackers day is coming as the spring to reality approaches.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Of paper fluff when there were few traders around.
> 
> The stackers day is coming as the spring to reality approaches.




Gold seems to have failed both the store of value ( it's lost 30%), and the investment (it's produced no income) value in the last few years, it's not even really operating as an independent clarion hedge.

It really has to rocket higher to make back ground it's lost in value and lost income in recent years. 

Turns out it is operating much more like a commodity than a currency, and stockpiles of gold continue to increase.


----------



## qldfrog

Sadly, VC, I can only agree with you;
Still puzzled as why in a world where everyone is faking money , real tangible assets such as gold do not go up the roof;
yet real estate does...
I would have thought that any tangible asset such as land , forests, food and mineral stockpile should increase as per fiat currency increase: you double the amount of paper money, these prices should double..
anyway such is the world...
I keep my physical gold not doing so bad lately-> as the AUD is falling.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> Gold seems to have failed both the store of value ( it's lost 30%), and the investment (it's produced no income) value in the last few years, it's not even really operating as an independent clarion hedge.
> 
> It really has to rocket higher to make back ground it's lost in value and lost income in recent years.
> 
> Turns out it is operating much more like a commodity than a currency, and stockpiles of gold continue to increase.




Incorrect. It's holding it's value if not gone up. Certainly doing better than the sharemarket. Not sure where you plucked 30% from.


----------



## cynic

Uncle Festivus said:


> Incorrect. It's holding it's value if not gone up. Certainly doing better than the sharemarket. Not sure where you plucked 30% from.




I suspect that the decline from its peak (when measured in USD) may be the justification behind such claims.  

As to outperformance of the sharemarket, I think it all depends which sharemarket (and time period) is selected for the comparison.

I'd be very interested to know if gold could be accurately claimed to have historically outperformed all sharemarkets.


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> stockpiles of gold continue to increase.




LOL.

What else would they do? 

Congratulations, you win my vote for funniest post on ASF ever.


----------



## explod

cynic said:


> I suspect that the decline from its peak (when measured in USD) may be the justification behind such claims.
> 
> As to outperformance of the sharemarket, I think it all depends which sharemarket (and time period) is selected for the comparison.
> 
> I'd be very interested to know if gold could be accurately claimed to have historically outperformed all sharemarkets.




Indexes can be very misleading.   If a company goes broke or drops to a certain level it is no longer in the index. 

With the topping of the DJIA looking close and the Chinese market plunging I feel very secure with my bullion.


----------



## cynic

explod said:


> Indexes can be very misleading.   If a company goes broke or drops to a certain level it is no longer in the index.
> 
> With the topping of the DJIA looking close and the Chinese market plunging I feel very secure with my bullion.






explod said:


> Indexes can be very misleading.   If a company goes broke or drops to a certain level it is no longer in the index.



Certainly.

Further to this indices may be price weighted, or alternatively capitalisation weighted. There are even some (total-return indices) that are adjusted to incorporate dividends.

However, indices do not the "sharemarket" make! 

Hence my curiosity (on the matter of comparative performance historically) remains as previously posted.



> With the topping of the DJIA looking close and the Chinese market plunging I feel very secure with my bullion.



I've always considered it most important that people are content with all personal decisions and/or actions regarding the various aspects of their lives, especially those pertaining to investment of resources (time, effort, material, money etc.)

I do, however, sometimes question the wisdom of becoming too deeply invested in negative events. 

A grandfather of mine (one of many) found a sizeable nugget whilst prospecting at Moliagul. At the time, gold was trading near an all time high. As he was hoping the price would continue its ascent, he held onto it for another six years. During those years the price defied him by steadily declining. At times he opined that an outbreak of war would elevate the price, and, despite stating that he'd not wish for such an such eventuality, I suspected that his deeper desire to profit may have outweighed those expressed sentiments.


----------



## explod

In a sensible portfolio gold is a long term protector. 

In 1970 it was $35, today $1,150,  up 33 times.  A home will show similar results.   A home I purchased for $7000 by 33 times equals $231,000, but in fact would be closer to 200 gs,  as it is a commission house in the country.  So gold wins on this one. 

Good paintings are held for the same reason.  And of course trading off the swings by astute charting the ultimate.  However the price rise of gold reflects the devaluation of money and this is often not factored properly.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cynic said:


> I do, however, sometimes question the wisdom of becoming too deeply invested in negative events.




Insurance is for negative events.

How long will, or can, the rest of the world keep giving the US $500Billion a year to live beyond their means, now that their sugar daddies, as in oil producers, have taken a hit on oil? Or their big consumer goods supplier, China, is converting USD's for gold?

That is the negative event to insure against.


----------



## Junior

explod said:


> In a sensible portfolio gold is a long term protector.
> 
> In 1970 it was $35, today $1,150,  up 33 times.  A home will show similar results.   A home I purchased for $7000 by 33 times equals $231,000, but in fact would be closer to 200 gs,  as it is a commission house in the country.  So gold wins on this one.
> 
> Good paintings are held for the same reason.  And of course trading off the swings by astute charting the ultimate.  However the price rise of gold reflects the devaluation of money and this is often not factored properly.




What would the multiple be if you purchased your gold and property in 1980?


----------



## explod

Junior said:


> What would the multiple be if you purchased your gold and property in 1980?




Agree,  we can cherry pick for all sorts of scenarios. .  1970 was chosen because that is when the US removed the gold standard which kept currencies orderly knowing the money had sound intrinsic value. 

Incidently the home purchased in 1970 had jumped to $25,000 and the gold high only lasted about 4 days in which time it rose nearly 30% then collapsed.


----------



## Wysiwyg

explod said:


> In a sensible portfolio gold is a long term protector.
> 
> *In 1970 it was $35, today $1,150,  up 33 times.*  A home will show similar results.   A home I purchased for $7000 by 33 times equals $231,000, but in fact would be closer to 200 gs,  as it is a commission house in the country.  So gold wins on this one.



This is exactly what I don't get with buying gold. If you bought an ounce at say age 30 in 1970 it would have cost you *half a weeks wages*. Now that person is 75 y.o. and holding a weeks wages worth of gold. 45 years of sitting there doing absolutely nothing. Buy low sell higher, buy high sell higher but holding it to the grave is a definite sentimental wank.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> .
> 
> In 1970 it was $35, today $1,150,  up 33 times.  A home will show similar results.   A home I purchased for $7000 by 33 times equals $231,000, but in fact would be closer to 200 gs,  as it is a commission house in the country.  So gold wins on this one.
> 
> 
> 
> .




Gold loses on that one.

Gold paid no interest, rent or dividends for all those years.

The house would have paid you rent, the rent left over after costs would have compounded, you could have ended up with two or three houses by reinvesting the rent received in more property.



> In a sensible portfolio gold is a long term protector.




Why not just have other assets with the same hedging profile as gold that also generate income?



> However the price rise of gold reflects the devaluation of money and this is often not factored properly




Yes, but a lot of "real" physical assets offer the same inflation hedge, while also producing income.

Do you understanding compounding? If you do, why recommend gold which does not compound.


----------



## Value Collector

Wysiwyg said:


> This is exactly what I don't get with buying gold. If you bought an ounce at say age 30 in 1970 it would have cost you *half a weeks wages*. Now that person is 75 y.o. and holding a weeks wages worth of gold. 45 years of sitting there doing absolutely nothing. Buy low sell higher, buy high sell higher but holding it to the grave is a definite sentimental wank.




Yes the gold bugs like gold because they hate paper money, they are right to mistrust paper money, but they are wrong to assume the answer is gold.

Assets that will maintain value as the paper money devalues, while also throwing off income in the currency of the day provides a far better long term return.

I mean good farmland in Greece currently produces euro dollars, next year it might produce Drachmas, if the year after that the Drachma halves in value, the farmland will produce twice as many Drachmas and be worth twice as many Drachma's, If we went bit coin, the farm will earn bit coin.

The farm will continue throwing of income in whatever currency is the currency of the day, and along the way it can be used to buy more farmland, producing compounded returns for you.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Certainly doing better than the sharemarket. Not sure where you plucked 30% from.




It is down from $1800, which is more than 30% decline.

Not sure where you pluck a return better than the share market?

It seems gold has been trending down from it peak for years, while paying no dividends, the value of the share market + dividends has gone up dramatically.




> Congratulations, you win my vote for funniest post on ASF ever




Does it not bother any gold bugs that the gold stock piles increase every year?

I mean we have a metal that apart from jewellery has almost no industrial use that comes anywhere near using the annual production rate of gold mines, so it is stock piled year after year.

I can't see anything that really offers price support if the large number of people who currently hold it, decide to get back into more productive assets.

It's not like oil or iron ore where the stockpiles will get used up.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> It is down from $1800, which is more than 30% decline.
> 
> Not sure where you pluck a return better than the share market?
> 
> It seems gold has been trending down from it peak for years, while paying no dividends, the value of the share market + dividends has gone up dramatically.




Still making bacon at $1500 though.

And yet again, being a gold advocate does not preclude from having the normal mix of assets - I have shares, super & property, although I have offloaded my IP's as the bubble is about to pop there.

As for return on assets, you are measuring your returns in money supply inflationary terms, which is not what holding gold is about. What you should measure it by is how much your asset has gone up relative to the money supply?

The 'value' of your assets, as measured, and when the time comes, will be vaporised literally overnight in a debt extinction event ie a recession. By a few data prints we are already there on a global scale - just hasn't been priced in yet. 

It only takes a single event to tip the balance ie some small economy say China having a market melt down - not that that will happen any time soon. Woops, just had a look at the ticker - small crash happening right now.

Just be prepared to write down the 'value' of your assets as they get marked to (less than?) market as each debt fueled bubble pops. 

Gold only has to stay still to be a winner in this climate.


----------



## sinner

> It is down from $1800, which is more than 30% decline.




Mate just wondering if you also price your ASX traded stocks in USD? I get my bullion from an Aussie dealer which means paying in AUD prices.

The AUD price high is $1800. 30% of $1800 is $600. $1800 - $600 = $1200. The low in XAUAUD was $1300. The current price is $1500. 

Perhaps people would be taken seriously if they knew even the first thing about the topic they were trolling.



Value Collector said:


> Does it not bother any gold bugs that the gold stock piles increase every year?
> 
> I mean we have a metal that apart from jewellery has almost no industrial use that comes anywhere near using the annual production rate of gold mines, so it is stock piled year after year.
> 
> I can't see anything that really offers price support if the large number of people who currently hold it, decide to get back into more productive assets.
> 
> It's not like oil or iron ore where the stockpiles will get used up.




Well, I wouldn't classify myself as a goldbug, which is a title I'd normally reserve for the GATA set.

But, to answer your question, no. Why would it? The fact that gold has a high stock to flow ratio is due to its unique properties that make it the wealth reserve asset _par excellence_. The market dynamics for gold are completely different for those of other markets. This should be obvious for those who actually sit down to consider the facts. For example, you seem to understand that oil is a consumed while gold is not, but you fail to understand the implications of that.

If you actually care about this topic, you can learn more here:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/its-flow-stupid.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/flow-addendum.html

These posts actually address your questions directly, if you were actually interested in hearing the view from "goldbugs", rather than trolling.


----------



## Tyler Durden

> Gold prices may need to fall another 30 per cent to reach fair value, according to Deutsche Bank, with cheap oil the only potential lifeline for the battered precious metal.
> 
> Gold is currently trading around $US1096, just above last week's fresh five-year low of $US1072.30.
> But Deutsche's paper Estimating fair value for gold argues the price of the precious metal needs to drop substantially to bring valuation levels back towards historical averages.
> 
> "Gold would need to fall towards $US750 per ounce to bring prices in real terms back towards long-run historical averages," said Deutsche.
> 
> Deutsche ran the gold price through  several models to determine "fair value" for the precious metal.
> The Deutsche "gold price model", which factors in world growth, the US dollar, money supply and central bank gold purchases, calculated fair value at $US785 per ounce.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...-value-is-us750-an-ounce-20150727-gil4ns.html


----------



## Value Collector

If I my US Stocks were on a downward trend and the fundamentals were getting worse, and the only reason I hadn't suffered a huge loss yet was because the Aussie dollar weakened at the same time, I wouldn't see that as a win, I would just be temporarily lucky.

Any strength in the Aussie will now mean your gold positions start losing, asset price fluctuations don't normally bother me, but that's all you have with gold.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Still making bacon at $1500 though.




Have you worked out you return from you gold position on a per annum basis?

How does it compare to just holding the asx 200 index? (Be sure to factor in the compounded income from the index, as this is my main argument against gold)


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> Any strength in the Aussie will now mean your gold positions start losing, asset price fluctuations don't normally bother me, but that's all you have with gold.




Wow! You really mean to tell me that if my local currency appreciates against the current global reserve, the purchasing power of that currency over physical items goes up?

**scribbles notes furiously**

I never knew... 

**makes mental note to reveal this secretive revelation to every CB governor on the planet**

I guess it's lucky I have a constant supply of local currency coming in...



> Deutsche ran the gold price through several models to determine "fair value" for the precious metal.
> The Deutsche "gold price model", which factors in world growth, the US dollar, money supply and central bank gold purchases, calculated fair value at $US785 per ounce.




Not to be outdone by Deutsche, I have also run the gold price through several proprietary sinnerBank models to determine "fair value". Results below:

Fair value for a COMEX GC contract: $0
Fair value for 1 troy ounce of physical gold: >$55,0000 2009 USDs.


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> Wow! You really mean to tell me that if my local currency appreciates against the current global reserve, the purchasing power of that currency over physical items goes up?
> 
> .




What I am saying is that gold has in fact lost 30% of its value, the only reason it has seemed to maintain value is because the Australian dollar has gone down, if the Aussie/US dollar ratio had remained the same, you would be down.

If you had simply held US dollars you would have done better than holding gold and you could have earned some interest.

It's funny, the gold bugs all said the reason they were getting into gold was to protect them selves from the Federal reserve's printing presses, and the financial chaos that the crash of the dollar would causes, but now a few years on, the only thing that has helped them save face is the strength of that very currency they feared, and they would have done better just holding that currency.

If you had taken your Aussie dollars and purchased a US Stock index, you would have smashed the return on gold, Your stock index would have gone up in US dollar value (rather than down like gold), and the US dollars would have gone up in relation to Aussie dollars + plus offcourse dividends


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> Have you worked out you return from you gold position on a per annum basis?
> 
> How does it compare to just holding the asx 200 index? (Be sure to factor in the compounded income from the index, as this is my main argument against gold)




Here we go again? I know it's a hard concept to get your head around but it's not about returns, it's about insurance and preservation of wealth for me. I have a percentage of my liquid assets in gold; some in shares; some in property. Gold doesn't need to make a 'return' to be compared with other 'assets'. 

As for these economists trying to work out 'fair value' (whatever that means?) - that's just an overeducated guessing game for them to justify their jobs.

As I keep saying, gold only has to sit there in readiness for a fiat extinction event. I'd love not to have anything to do with gold but unfortunately humans being humans will guarantee that they will always live beyond their means on debt to the point of a debt recession or in the coming scenario, a depression?

How much faith do you have in economists, masquerading as central bakers, to save the world?

The relative alternative when everyone scrambles to the same exit door...............


----------



## Wysiwyg

Would the average cost per ounce to mine this rare, malleable metal be a rough base. I guess that is around US$1000.


----------



## DeepState

As of this morning, Deutsche equity analysts are working off Gold prices as follows:
June 2016 USD 1107.50; and
Long term 2020 of USD 1418.20.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Here we go again? I know it's a hard concept to get your head around but it's not about returns, it's about insurance and preservation of wealth for me. I have a percentage of my liquid assets in gold; some in shares; some in property. Gold doesn't need to make a 'return' to be compared with other 'assets'.
> 
> 
> As I keep saying, gold only has to sit there in readiness for a fiat extinction event. I'd love not to have anything to do with gold but unfortunately humans being humans will guarantee that they will always live beyond their means on debt to the point of a debt recession or in the coming scenario, a depression?
> 
> How much faith do you have in economists, masquerading as central bakers, to save the world?
> 
> The relative alternative when everyone scrambles to the same exit door...............




If you are worried about fiat currency, why not hold an asset that provides the same currency protection, but also delivers a return, that way you will have the protection and compounding?

As I said, earlier today Greek farmland produces Eurodollars, next year it might produce drachmas, if the drachmas halves in value it will produce double the amount of drachmas, if we go bit coin, the farmland will produce bit coin, and every year you can take this income and buy more assets (compounding) or you can spend it.

gold is not holding value, it has been losing value, it's just a possibly temporary shift in U.S/ Aussie dollar that's giving it the illusion of holding value, the fiat US dollar would have been a better hold than gold, because you still would have benefited from the currency move, without losing in U.S. Dollar terms.

or better yet, buy an asset that went up in U.S. Dollar terms, while also getting the currency shift as a bonus eg buy Us stocks.


----------



## Value Collector

Wysiwyg said:


> Would the average cost per ounce to mine this rare, malleable metal be a rough base. I guess that is around US$1000.




I don't think so, because there is far more produced each year than is actually needed, and we have decades of production just sitting in stock piles.

To hold its value you need to have people willing to buy and just hold ever increasing amounts of this malleable metal, if a large number of people currently sitting on these stock piles decided to start selling to get into productive assets, and there wasn't enough scared people to buy it, the price would drop and a negative feed back start causing more sellers.

Stopping production completely wouldn't stop it, because there is not the industrial demand consuming the metal eating the stock pile as it does in other commodities,

It's not like natural gas, where a price drop caused by over supply is fixed by shutting off gas wells and feeding the excess "cheap" gas into a power plants that only normally run in peak times when gas is more expensive.

There is no industry that steps in to consume more gold as it gets cheaper that could come close to having an effect on the stockpiles held.


----------



## cynic

Can anybody here tell me whether the growth in the human population is outperforming or underperforming the growth in physical gold reserves?


----------



## qldfrog

good point, I was going to add this to VC comments;
yes there is an extending usage: human population;
and as can be seen in china/india, the attraction for man 9usually woman0 for shiny sparking items, and as the increasing population ages, more are able to afford the new necklace, so there is indeed a component of increasing use; not a bullion but as jewelry;
But some of the points VC raised are obviously true;
I nevertheless am quite happy to have a bit of gold put aside; if i could I would also have agricultural land in here, ineurope, russia, us..but not that easy....
and I think we can all agree that share market is not exactly like owning a business in each of these areas. i would if i could


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> As I said, earlier today Greek farmland produces Eurodollars, next year it might produce drachmas, if the drachmas halves in value it will produce double the amount of drachmas, if we go bit coin, the farmland will produce bit coin, and every year you can take this income and buy more assets (compounding) or you can spend it.




Yes, I also have farmland with secure water - do you?



Value Collector said:


> gold is not holding value, it has been losing value, it's just a possibly temporary shift in U.S/ Aussie dollar that's giving it the illusion of holding value, the fiat US dollar would have been a better hold than gold, because you still would have benefited from the currency move, without losing in U.S. Dollar terms.




You just can't make a statement like that. In currencies that are not pegged to the USD gold has appreciated substantially or at the very least not fallen. Your point about gold quantity always increasing - the same can be said for fiat by CB's - last count total global QE was $11Trillion! There's obviously too many USD's sloshing around the globe - somebody just paid $32Million for an Andy Warhol painting, ironically enough for a painting of a US dollar 'bill'.






Value Collector said:


> or better yet, buy an asset that went up in U.S. Dollar terms, while also getting the currency shift as a bonus eg buy Us stocks.




Let's see now. For the average Joe investing in the US over the years, in the 1973-74 bear market, investors had to wait seven and a half years to get back to even. In the 2000-02 bear market, investors didn’t break even until 2007. The last breakeven from the great recession was quicker due to QE juicing the markets. It's all about faking by making - faking prosperity and growth by making more money to blow bubbles?

US transports have been telling us that the parties over.......


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> If you are worried about fiat currency, why not hold an asset that provides the same currency protection, but also delivers a return, that way you will have the protection and compounding?
> 
> As I said, earlier today Greek farmland produces Eurodollars, next year it might produce drachmas, if the drachmas halves in value it will produce double the amount of drachmas, if we go bit coin, the farmland will produce bit coin, and every year you can take this income and buy more assets (compounding) or you can spend it.
> 
> gold is not holding value, it has been losing value, it's just a possibly temporary shift in U.S/ Aussie dollar that's giving it the illusion of holding value, the fiat US dollar would have been a better hold than gold, because you still would have benefited from the currency move, without losing in U.S. Dollar terms.
> 
> or better yet, buy an asset that went up in U.S. Dollar terms, while also getting the currency shift as a bonus eg buy Us stocks.





oh lord this is so dull. consider this last post from me and then feel free to reenter your echo chamber of hindsight currency and stock market timing.

if one bothered to look at history, one can plainly see that stocks are a *crap* inflation hedge, unless you are super smart and time the market to avoid the initial inflation shock.

the reason for that should be obvious for anyone with two brain cells to rub together. the actual performant inflation hedge is short term bills.

by the same token, one can plainly see that stocks are a *completely crap* hyperinflation hedge. yes. stocks go up during hyperinflation because money is chasing whatever claims on capital it can find to "outrun the bear". but those with 4 braincells or more should easily grasp that during hyperinflation those businesses will be producing a *negative real return* as they consume their own capital struggling to survive. hyperinflation is, counterintuitively to most, a shortage of good money. so how is your farm going to get paid? assuming theyre lucky enough to be close to the printing press and have some money dumped on their lawn, how will they efficiently use it to fund necessity consumption, savings and future investment? 

all blatantly obvious ****.

now returning you to your regular broadcast.

ps: LOL eurodollars. the ignorance is staggering.


----------



## Value Collector

cynic said:


> Can anybody here tell me whether the growth in the human population is outperforming or underperforming the growth in physical gold reserves?




Gold production is probably out performing, considering more is being mined than is used for any practicle purpose.



qldfrog said:


> and I think we can all agree that share market is not exactly like owning a business in each of these areas. i would if i could




I don't agree, I think being a longterm owner of a diverse portfolio of marketable equity securities that are link to these types of assets, with owner focused management is pretty much the same (probably better) as directly owning businesses in each area.

And there is no doubt that owning a diverse portfoilio of productive assets will out perform the holding of a commodity over the long term.

On any given day, week or even year Gold may out perform other assets in marke price, But the fact it doesn't grow or compound means it will not do this over any long period of time, So sitting on gold is not a very productive allocation of capital.

If you notice the gold promoters on this thread continually leave out the income generated by other asset classes in their calculations, I don't know if this is intentional or just ignorance, but the will compare the longterm market price of gold against a property investment with out factoring in rental income, or a sharemarket investment without factoring in dividends.

If they did their calculation honestly, and included the income, them would find gold gets smashed by other assets, and the longer the holding period gets the worse it is.


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> Gold production is probably out performing, considering more is being mined than is used for any practicle purpose.
> 
> 
> 
> I don't agree, I think being a longterm owner of a diverse portfolio of marketable equity securities that are link to these types of assets, with owner focused management is pretty much the same (probably better) as directly owning businesses in each area.
> 
> And there is no doubt that owning a diverse portfoilio of productive assets will out perform the holding of a commodity over the long term.
> 
> On any given day, week or even year Gold may out perform other assets in marke price, But the fact it doesn't grow or compound means it will not do this over any long period of time, So sitting on gold is not a very productive allocation of capital.
> 
> If you notice the gold promoters on this thread continually leave out the income generated by other asset classes in their calculations, I don't know if this is intentional or just ignorance, but the will compare the longterm market price of gold against a property investment with out factoring in rental income, or a sharemarket investment without factoring in dividends.
> 
> If they did their calculation honestly, and included the income, them would find gold gets smashed by other assets, and the longer the holding period gets the worse it is.




dude. we dont compare gold to investments because it is not one. gold to be compared against holding physical cash in a shoe box. whats the purchasing power of a shoebox dollar from 1985? can it buy more or less grams of gold?

im not a gold promoter. sell all your gold and join VC in buying fortescue shares for all i care (my only investment advice for all is due diligence)! just dont come on here to troll and spout ignorant, trite, tripe.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, I also have farmland with secure water - do you?
> 
> 
> 
> ......




Thats the great thing with securities, you can spread you capital across many types of businesses and many different regions.

But yes there will be years of droughts and years of plenty, but over time good farmland will be a good investment.



> Your point about gold quantity always increasing - the same can be said for fiat by CB's - last count total global QE was $11Trillion! There's obviously too many USD's sloshing around the globe -




I am not suggesting holding your capital in cash, Gold is not the only asset that protects you from fiat currency, almost all real assets do, I am suggesting assets that provide a natural inflation hedge while also producing income which can be compounded in further assets.



> Let's see now. For the average Joe investing in the US over the years, in the 1973-74 bear market, investors had to wait seven and a half years to get back to even. In the 2000-02 bear market, investors didn’t break even until 2007.




Now, did you factor in the dividend income being reinvested. I think you will find that sped up the process of breaking even, and probably meant the fall in price ended up being beneficial.

The fall from $1800 per ounce in USD terms is probably going to break the record of those share market down turns you mentioned, and they will not produce an ounce of income, the person holding the gold doesn't get a dividend of an extra piece of gold each 6 months

This is my point excactly the gold promoters here always leave out the income from their calulations, which is the heart of my arrguement.


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> if one bothered to look at history, one can plainly see that stocks are a *crap* inflation hedge, unless you are super smart and time the market to avoid the initial inflation shock.
> 
> 
> 
> .




I can't see how it a crap inflation hedge, over time the market price of the stock indexes has out performed inflation, But again I think you have left out the income from your calcs.



> counterintuitively to most, a shortage of good money. so how is your farm going to get paid?




Good assets will just continue to produce income in what ever the currenecy of the day is, hell if it comes down to it, we will even accept your gold as payment, every meal, rental payment or product you need to buy we will take some of your gold, we will end up with the farmland and your gold.








sinner said:


> just dont come on here to troll and spout ignorant, trite, tripe.




Lol, just because I don't buy you party line doesn't make me a troll.


----------



## Joules MM1

this is in the where is it heading thread as it's not directly executable, worthy of study, I thought

a commonality of price movements break down after a while.
when theyre active they 'suggest' activity to come
I promise not to start a sentence with "this shocking one weird trick...."

the point is to look at different way of how one instrument might be assisting another
...a different way, that's all.....this might shift your bias, at least to the extent you'll be less fixated on one idea
if it shifts you into uncomfortable, great!

i've done many of these studies, however, tempered with some basic experience that price is dynamic
and find that basic tendencies of an auction remain.....basic.....and so do I 

in the first pic is the current generic print a 5 min view
some symmetry, a channel .....simple stuff,
you could use this to argue a case that without this action in $DX gold would be much lower
inferring that if the $DX is in a longerterm uptrend then gold is ready to get pummeled, 
if so, at what point is that likely to occur? the answer may lay in the second chart.
...at least the second chart might lend an idea to distance price needs to travel before those
questions get answered...... also inferring they are not, necessarily, the correct questions...




in the daily view the first move down is a 100% black box
the second move down is 161.8% of that first move

in the red boxes are a simple 1:1 ratio (theyre equal)

then the blue length merely hints that if the tendency to repeat, repeats, there's an end point
based on the repetition A (circled) x B(circled) = C(circled)

remember....it's.just.a.study!


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> I can't see how it [equities] (is) a crap inflation hedge...




Maybe this will help:




Equities are a crap hedge against unexpected and disorderly inflation.


----------



## cynic

Value Collector said:


> Gold production is probably out performing, considering more is being mined than is used for any practicle purpose.




I really was hoping to receive a response from somebody armed with some facts to support their opinion. However, since you've so generously offered yours, I'd be interested to hear from anyone that can offer some factually grounded evidence to confirm (or alternatively refute) such opinion/s.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> Maybe this will help:
> 
> View attachment 63633
> 
> 
> Equities are a crap hedge against unexpected and disorderly inflation.




No doubt there would be disruptions to markets in such an unexpected inflationary environment, but provided you held longterm assets, the disruption would be temporary, once the inflation balanced or new currency was issued the assets would return to fair value in the new currency and continue earning.

the real underlying assets will have the same longterm inflation hedge as gold does, as long as the holding period used to measure covers both boom and bust cycle, but as I said, it's the income and internal asset growth that provides the out performance from other assets over gold.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> No doubt there would be disruptions to markets in such an unexpected inflationary environment, but provided you held longterm assets, the disruption would be temporary, once the inflation balanced or new currency was issued the assets would return to fair value in the new currency and continue earning.
> 
> the real underlying assets will have the same longterm inflation hedge as gold does, as long as the holding period used to measure covers both boom and bust cycle, but as I said, it's the income and internal asset growth that provides the out performance from other assets over gold.





Let's use that argument....and bring it to something a little more familiar.

In the very long run the value of land will rise. It may even generate income. It is a productive asset.

On the basis of your argument about long term...I guess you shouldn't bother insuring your property then, right?  Because insurance generally has a negative return expectation and all that matters in life is the super long term and equilibrium arguments.

In the very long term, you can earn enough to rebuild your burned out and ransacked home. Restoring you to a long term equilibrium position. Thus, on this argument, there is no need for insurance to help tie you through the shorter term, right?

No?

Apparently, the long run is comprised of several short runs all lined up.  If these short run periods contain critical periods where amazing insights derived from hindsight analysis are somewhat lacking at the time, and the drawdowns hurt in real time, most people insure at least some of that risk.

Apparently, gold has that property in certain conditions related to financial markets. Perhaps that's still unclear.


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> Let's use that argument....and bring it to something a little more familiar.
> 
> In the very long run the value of land will rise. It may even generate income. It is a productive asset.
> 
> On the basis of your argument about long term...I guess you shouldn't bother insuring your property then, right?  Because insurance generally has a negative return expectation and all that matters in life is the super long term and equilibrium arguments.
> 
> In the very long term, you can earn enough to rebuild your burned out and ransacked home. Restoring you to a long term equilibrium position. Thus, on this argument, there is no need for insurance to help tie you through the shorter term, right?
> 
> No?
> 
> Apparently, the long run is comprised of several short runs all lined up.  If these short run periods contain critical periods where amazing insights derived from hindsight analysis are somewhat lacking at the time, and the drawdowns hurt in real time, most people insure at least some of that risk.
> 
> Apparently, gold has that property in certain conditions related to financial markets. Perhaps that's still unclear.





 If you want to talk insurance, you should probably insure your bullion, then not only are you not earning income, but you have a negative income situation, which makes the gold even worse.

I think there are a better ways to manage your capital to prevent erosion from inflation and also survive the highly unlikely situation of hyper inflation than holding gold.


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> I think there are a better ways to manage your capital to prevent erosion from inflation and also survive the highly unlikely situation of hyper inflation than holding gold.




...such as....


----------



## DeepState

Value Collector said:


> If you want to talk insurance, you should probably insure your bullion, then not only are you not earning income, but you have a negative income situation, which makes the gold even worse.



My bullion is kept warm at night by the good folk in the Perth Mint.

So the cost of your house and contents is now lifted by 1% per annum.  Will you now choose to self-insure?  Last I looked, House and Contents insurance wasn't listed under income producing asset.


----------



## DeepState

cynic said:


> I really was hoping to receive a response from somebody armed with some facts to support their opinion. However, since you've so generously offered yours, I'd be interested to hear from anyone that can offer some factually grounded evidence to confirm (or alternatively refute) such opinion/s.




Currently, the stock of gold is increasing at a slightly faster rate than global population.
If I can guess at the purpose of this, you should also consider the productivity growth rate of the population as well.


----------



## explod

cynic said:


> I really was hoping to receive a response from somebody armed with some facts to support their opinion. However, since you've so generously offered yours, I'd be interested to hear from anyone that can offer some factually grounded evidence to confirm (or alternatively refute) such opinion/s.






cynic said:


> Can anybody here tell me whether the growth in the human population is outperforming or underperforming the growth in physical gold reserves?




That is not a question I can answer but is very worthy of some research (which I will do)  and discussion. 

South Africa and Australia's prduction has dropped a lot over the last 10 years.  China's (they do not produce figures)  is purported to have increased. 

The world population has increased by more than 30% since the year 2000, so my guess is that population is moving ahead.  

Will rreport back. 

Good question


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> I can't see how it a crap inflation hedge, over time the market price of the stock indexes has out performed inflation, But again I think you have left out the income from your calcs.




uh. you cant see or you didnt bother to actually think about it? because the impact of inflationary pressure on every business that doesnt operate in a spot market is gonna be: eat poo very quickly and take at *least* a year to fully recover.

this is borne out in all of the data. ever. 

the reasoning should be obvious and i even left you a hint.



> Good assets will just continue to produce income in what ever the currenecy of the day is, hell if it comes down to it, we will even accept your gold as payment, every meal, rental payment or product you need to buy we will take some of your gold, we will end up with the farmland and your gold




gold will never be the currency of the day again thanks to the ECB. all of its former roles have been decommisioned and it has, now, but one: global reserve/wealth asset of unparalleled quality.

i get it VC, you are trying to cement your position as funniest poster on ASF. what i dont understand is why you would take payment in gold? gold is dumb. it doesnt even earn an income! you should take payment in fortescue shares, that makes sense. perhaps you could issue shares in your gold eating leviathan rental mealsonwheeels staples internet company and then your customers could pay you in shares of your company. makes even more sense!



> Lol, just because I don't buy you party line doesn't make me a troll.




there are lots of people on ASF that dont "buy my party line" either. but i dont consider them trolls.

ps: eurodollars! hahahahaha ill be laughin at this for weeks.


----------



## sinner

perhaps consider changing your display name to EurodollarCollector hahaahahh


----------



## Value Collector

DeepState said:


> ...such as....






DeepState said:


> My bullion is kept warm at night by the good folk in the Perth Mint.
> 
> So the cost of your house and contents is now lifted by 1% per annum.  Will you now choose to self-insure?  Last I looked, House and Contents insurance wasn't listed under income producing asset.




is there a risk that the Perth mint might not be able to give you your gold when you need it?

Real assets with natural inflation hedging will provide increasing returns as prices increase, it will be lumpy in cases of super high inflation, but it's not going to wipe you out. If you had $100k set aside to live off for the next year and it devalued 30% you wouldn't be wiped out, and interest rates would increase which would offset a chunk of it, you could put up you rents etc and you would get passed it.

Insurance is a cost of doing business when you have investment properties, it's funded by the rental income, not from your pocket, any cost you incur storing gold or insuring it must be paid by you, producing negative returns.

Also the lumpiness of return caused by inflation events would be offset by the extra returns and wealth you build up by compounded growth through productive assets.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm actually starting to feel sorry for VC - I think he genuinely believes what he types?

"devalued 30%"???

"and interest rates would increase" what the ??? global rates have been zero bound for 8 YEARS! They are not going back up to normalise any decade soon?

"you could put up you rents"

So you've had an "event" that wiped 30% yet your solutions are exactly opposite to what would happen in the real world??

In any event VC yo have given life to this thread after it was going comatose, but I don' think we are getting through to you so bon voyage......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

cynic said:


> I really was hoping to receive a response from somebody armed with some facts to support their opinion. However, since you've so generously offered yours, I'd be interested to hear from anyone that can offer some factually grounded evidence to confirm (or alternatively refute) such opinion/s.






> The USGS keeps track of estimated annual global gold mine production. Exhibit 18 presents the USGS
> gold mine production time series, which starts with the year 1900. Annual global mine production has
> averaged about 2,500 tons per year for the last few years. In 1900, about 30,000 metric tons of gold had
> already been mined. This means that over 80% of the current above ground supply of gold has been
> mined since 1900 and that the above ground stock of gold has increased by about 1.5% per annum. If
> global production of gold continues at a rate of 2,500 metric tons a year, and if the USGS is correct in its
> estimate that there are only 51,000 metric tons of exploitable gold reserves, then gold production will
> be exhausted in about 20 years.




Report from 2012


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> "and interest rates would increase" what the ??? global rates have been zero bound for 8 YEARS! They are not going back up to normalise any decade soon?
> 
> "you could put up you rents"
> 
> So you've had an "event" that wiped 30% yet your solutions are exactly opposite to what would happen in the real world??
> 
> In any event VC yo have given life to this thread after it was going comatose, but I don' think we are getting through to you so bon voyage......




Do you not think interest rates are linked to inflation?

One of the ways inflation is tamed is by increasing interest rates, so if inflation went through the roof, offcourse it would be followed by interest rates increasing.

Do you not think that inflation effects rents?

A devaluation of the currency, causes prices to rise on the real world items, including rents. 

You guys seem to be worried that inflation will cause your money to lose value, but if the prices of houses or the rent you have to pay doesn't rise, has your money really lost value?

Which one is it? Are you worried about prices rising? If so that means the owners of the assets producing the good or service are collecting more revenue, offset the effect of inflation on them.

The devaluing of the currency only really has an effect on you if prices you have to pay for the things you need are rising, So you might be worried that in an inflation event the cash you were planning to spend loses value so you have trouble paying you rent, there fore you need gold because hopefully the gold goes up by the same amount, you can sell gold and pay your rent, but rent going up means the landlord has increased the rental income he gets, so you hedged you position holding gold, but the landlord owned a natural hedge.

Offcourse if you were holding the wealth you need to live off for the next 20years in cash, then the inflation will kill you, but holding real assets who's revenues increase along with inflation will protect you, offcourse gold would also provide limited protection, but that benefit is offset by not offering much growth beyond the inflation hedge.


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> Report from 2012
> 
> View attachment 63642




Take any prediction that gold reserves will be exhausted in 20years with a grain of salt, look back at reports from 1990 stating that we only had X number of years left of Oil, copper, Uranium etc. 

25years on when Oil should have been depleted, we have more more reserves in the ground and are producing almost double per day, and people are worried about a glut, and that's a commodity who's daily production is literally burned every day.

There is more gold sitting in the ground waiting to be discovered than we have sitting in stock piles, probably many times more.


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> 25years on when Oil should have been depleted, we have more more reserves in the ground and are producing almost double per day, and people are worried about a glut, and that's a commodity who's daily production is literally burned every day.




The fun never ends with EurodollarCollector. 

What's the EROEI on all that new "oil" which the IAEA calls "unconvential liquids" or some other silly name? :bonk:


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> The fun never ends with EurodollarCollector.
> 
> What's the EROEI on all that new "oil" which the IAEA calls "unconvential liquids" or some other silly name? :bonk:




It doesn't matter, the point is we are bringing a lot more oil to market every day now than we were in 1990 and we have about the same years of reserves, if you believed the numbers in 1990, we shouldn't have any oil left by now, Since 1990 we have produced more oil than the stated reserves of 1990, simply because we keep finding more.

So if you are going to simply look at the current reported gold reserves number and divide it by the production rate and say, "Yep, in 20years we will have exhausted the gold reserves" you will be wrong, because that is saying that no more gold will be found, I don't think that will be the case.

Explorers will continue finding more gold deposits (as well as oil, copper, etc)  and that "20 years till we run out" number will keep being pushed off into the future.

If you are holding gold hoping that reserves get depleted you are in for a long wait, and since most gold simply just gets stockpiled, the reserves aren't actually being depleted, they are just being shifted from underground mines into underground storage bunkers, its not burned like oil, and its not vital to our survival like oil is right now.


----------



## sinner

In the 1970s, Saudi oil was the global benchmark. Saudi oil was so easy to get at you could pretty much stick a straw in the sand. The stuff that would come out was called "light, sweet" because it required so little refinement compared to other oils.

In 2010 the Deepwater Horizon rig was drilling the Macondo prospect. The DH was a deep sea drilling rig, really designed for the most arduous conditions, the hardest to get at oil. To give you an idea of this, in 2009, DH drilled the deepest vertical oil well in history. So here we are, way out at sea, digging as far down as we possibly can go to get at this oil.

Now, you'd imagine, for such effort that we must be attempting to get at the next motherlode, Saudi style, right? Right? Well, for those playing at home, the Macondo had "estimated oil in place" of 50 million barrels.

Wow! That's a lot, right? Right? Well, for those playing at home, current global oil consumption is ~90 million barrels. 

Way out at sea, digging as far down as we can possibly go, to get at oil which requires heavy refinement to be usable. 

For 12 hours of global consumption.

Let that sink in for a second. Maybe this puts the Lula/Tupi field, Canadian tar sands, CSG, or other similar new "mega" discoveries in context of a global economy for which oil is the lifeblood.

Now, before Eurodollars over there starts stuffing misinterpretations down my throat, I'm not actually trying to scare anyone about resource depletion. I am simply trying to highlight how EROEI is important in that:

* EROEI is a physical construct independent of and actually driving the monetary construct. It simply doesn't matter how high (or low) the cost of marginal oil barrels are, EROEI is what really matters!
* The Saudis (or whoever has the best EROEI on lots of energy resources, maybe Russia?) will forever be the marginal price setter for a barrel of oil. They get to decide the value of a USD in terms of barrels of oil. Everyone else must play along.

What does this have to do with gold? 

Well, as a wise man once reminded us:
*"gold and oil can never flow in the same direction"* - ANOTHER, Oct 5, 1997.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2008/08/king-and-his-gold.html (this is basically "It's the Flow Stupid" and "Flow Addendum" in childrens story format).


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> *It doesn't matter*, the point is we are bringing a lot more oil to market every day now than we were in 1990 and we have about the same years of reserves, if you believed the numbers in 1990, we shouldn't have any oil left by now, Since 1990 we have produced more oil than the stated reserves of 1990, *simply because we keep finding more*




ok. ok man, you win. I concede. You are the most hilarious poster that ASF has ever seen.


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> ok. ok man, you win. I concede. You are the most hilarious poster that ASF has ever seen.




Ok so who is the troll here, you seemed to have filled the role quite well.



> *It doesn't matter*, the point is we are bringing a lot more oil to market every day now than we were in 1990 and we have about the same years of reserves, if you believed the numbers in 1990, we shouldn't have any oil left by now, Since 1990 we have produced more oil than the stated reserves of 1990, *simply because we keep finding more*




You put the above in bold, as if you were ignoring the sentences in between.

My point it. Today we have a very productive oil industry, producing more than 80 million of barrels every day.

If you simply believed that dividing reserves by current production gave you an accurate picture of the future supply, then today we should not have an oil industry. 

when I pointed out that offcourse more oil (and gold ) will be found so such a calculation is pointless, you asked 
What's the EROEI on all that new "oil" which the IAEA calls "unconvential liquids" or some other silly name?

But that is a red herring to my point, offcourse I understand that the new oil on average is harder to get, and requires more to process, but that doesn't matter when the point I am making is that the industry shouldn't exist at all by the simplistic calculation put forward, when infact we are still producing more oil than ever, and finding more all the time.

Is there a limit to oil? offcourse there is, but the reserves estimate of 1990 gave you no insight to what that eventual limit is, and the reserve estimate of 2015 or 2025 won't either, Same with any reserve estimate of gold.

And gold is worse than oil, as I said at least they burn the oil, the gold is just getting piled up, so the reserves are not actually being depleted.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> Is there a limit to oil? offcourse there is, but the reserves estimate of 1990 gave you no insight to what that eventual limit is, and the reserve estimate of 2015 or 2025 won't either, Same with any reserve estimate of gold.






> We’ve hit peak economic gold discoveries, but unlike the new fracking technologies that saved the oil industry, there’s no fracking technology to coax mineral wealth from ever-deeper deposits.




The point is, they are _not_ finding any more gold. Even when they do find it, it takes several years to bring to production. Peak gold will be a reality. Now if market forces were left to their own devices to enable price discovery then there would be an increased effort to find more gold based on the market price, but alas it is not to be.

So the elastic get's stretched until firstly fundamentals then sentiment take charge?

So we may have the perfect storm brewing here - basic supply/demand, the always present geopolitical plus a little bit of central bank induced QE & ZIRP carnage? It'll be a wild ride!

http://static.businessinsider.com/image/510e859c69bedd0568000003/image.jpg


----------



## Value Collector

Uncle Festivus said:


> The point is, they are _not_ finding any more gold.




That's just False.


----------



## explod

Value Collector said:


> That's just False.




How about some facts on that statement?


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> How about some facts on that statement?




I think the statement that needs to be proven is this one 

"The point is, they are not finding any more gold."

If that were true, all the gold explorers around the world are wasting their time, and that no new gold deposits have been found, and no existing deposits have had their reserves upgraded.

Here is a gold discovery from this year.

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/barrick-s-new-gold-discovery-turning-heads

So did the "Not finding any more gold" start after this one?


----------



## notting

Value Collector said:


> http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/ne...-turning-heads
> So did the "Not finding any more gold" start after this one?




Yes, that's the last gold find ever.


----------



## skyQuake

There is also a non-zero chance scientists will be able to synthesize gold in the future.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Albrecht/2...uclear-Reactor-Creates-Gold-and-Platinum.html

Just like diamonds in the 1900s


----------



## Ves

sinner said:


> Well, as a wise man once reminded us:
> *"gold and oil can never flow in the same direction"* - ANOTHER, Oct 5, 1997.
> 
> http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2008/08/king-and-his-gold.html (this is basically "It's the Flow Stupid" and "Flow Addendum" in childrens story format).



Hypothetical for you,  what kind of affect on the current situation that he describes, would a civilisation that becomes less reliable on oil because of increased use of renewable energy technology?

Is there a point where it matters a lot to his quoted statement "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction" and the circumstances that this has caused?  Or do you think it is a moot point and there is no paradigm shift possible?


----------



## sinner

Ves said:


> Hypothetical for you,  what kind of affect on the current situation that he describes, would a civilisation that becomes less reliable on oil because of increased use of renewable energy technology?
> 
> Is there a point where it matters a lot to his quoted statement "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction" and the circumstances that this has caused?  Or do you think it is a moot point and there is no paradigm shift possible?




I think if you generalise the case (to debtors and savers) you will find that the approximate same applies everywhere, i.e. "savings and consumption will never flow in the same direction, and gold is the only real form of savings".

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/07/debtors-and-savers.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/debtors-and-savers-2012.html


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> and gold is the only real form of savings".




I think that's where we disagree, I believe savings can take many forms, it certainly isn't restricted to gold.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Value Collector said:


> That's just False.




I should have said, they are not replacing resources to replace current production because it's uneconomic. What they are finding, when they find it, is more costly and at lower grades, with the increasingly rare odd exception.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_We may see gold crisis in 2017/18. Even gold can go down to as low as $300 by 2017. USD could become supper winner among hard currencies by 2017/18. My initial target for Gold was $500 by 2017. However, now I believe it can go below that level as well due to some factors. Still we haven’t seen interest rates adjustment in the USA. It should adjust gradually from 2016 onwards. Therefore, we should see bigger fall in gold prices in 2016 as well. Coming USA factor will crush gold. As I forecasted, I am going to stay with my bear call for gold._

*http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors...unce-2015-07-29*

*Opinion: Study predicts gold could plunge to $350 an ounce*

_My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. 
_


----------



## explod

How about some reasons?


----------



## explod

MARKETWINNER said:


> _We may see gold crisis in 2017/18. Even gold can go down to as low as $300 by 2017. USD could become supper winner among hard currencies by 2017/18. My initial target for Gold was $500 by 2017. However, now I believe it can go below that level as well due to some factors. Still we haven’t seen interest rates adjustment in the USA. It should adjust gradually from 2016 onwards. Therefore, we should see bigger fall in gold prices in 2016 as well. Coming USA factor will crush gold. As I forecasted, I am going to stay with my bear call for gold._
> 
> *http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors...unce-2015-07-29*
> 
> *Opinion: Study predicts gold could plunge to $350 an ounce*
> 
> _My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.
> _



Please source where this information is from.


----------



## DeepState

explod said:


> Please source where this information is from.




This is the primary underlying research document.   For the most part, the predictions arise from observation of inflation  adjusted gold prices over a period which extends back to 1975 (at most). The idea is that this should revert back to average.  It is presently above average. Over this period there have been two spikes, OPEC 2 and GFC.  The very low price predictions make allowance for moving through the inflation adjusted (trended) average and over-reacting to the downside.  MarketWinner has additional views about the strength of the USD, based at least upon the upcoming lift-off in rates, which compound this observation from a USD perspective


----------



## Uncle Festivus

DeepState said:


> MarketWinner has additional views about the strength of the USD, based at least upon the upcoming lift-off in rates, which compound this observation from a USD perspective




Lift-off implies leaving the leaving ground ZIRP and a steady rise to the heavens? More likely this- 

https://youtu.be/TatYYI-mEjE

A couple of metres off the launch pad maybe then kapow :flush:


----------



## DeepState

Uncle Festivus said:


> Lift-off implies leaving the leaving ground ZIRP and a steady rise to the heavens? More likely this-
> 
> https://youtu.be/TatYYI-mEjE
> 
> A couple of metres off the launch pad maybe then kapow :flush:




I think USD strength of the type imagined by MW is a viable (if not central case) scenario and does not necessarily require especially hawkish monetary policy on the part of the Fed.  For example, a sovereign or other credit event in Japan or capital flight from disorderly developments in Emerging Markets can have this effect.


----------



## Tyler Durden

There's been a bit of talk lately in the media from several "experts" about how gold is only going to go down and that it is of no use or value anymore in this day and age, which conveniently coincides with a time when China is building their own islands and at military odds with the US.

Maybe some people foresee a possible war coming and want to buy some gold now at a lower price?

#conspiracytheoryidiot


----------



## AverageJoe

Value Collector said:


> That's just False.




Agree, we had Peak oil in the seventies now they bring out Peak Gold. If it is so rare and price goes back to say 2000$, just watch a flurry of ancient mines suddenly becoming profitable. You could makes LOADS of money on super pit for the next 50 years at those prices. 

Price going down because like its cousin Crude, the world does not need it that much to hide in inflationary environment.


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> .... like its cousin Crude, the world does not need it  that much to hide in inflationary environment.






			
				Michael A. Gayed said:
			
		

> The discussion should not be about when the Fed will raise rates,
> but why they haven’t been able to for so long and likely can’t in an aggressive way in the future.
> Take a look below at the price ratio of the iShares Barclays
> TIPS Bond Fund ETF (TIP) relative to the PIMCO 7-15 Year
> Treasury Index (TENZ).  As a reminder, a rising price ratio
> means the numerator/TIP (inflation protection buying) is
> outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/TENZ
> (non-inflation protection buying).  The chart below essentially
> tracks market expectations.  Notice that as everyone is
> endlessly talking about the Fed’s first rate hike, inflation
> expectations are utterly collapsing on the far right of the chart.









> Some will attribute this to Oil, but inflation expectations have
> faltered really since the Summer Crash of 2011 took place despite
> a booming US stock market.  Stocks, by the way, are not meant to
> be a disinflation/deflation hedge, yet investors have piled into them
> so aggressively on the hopes that growth and inflation are about to
> ramp up.  They simply have not, and yield curve flattening remains a
> massive issue for central bank tightening.  That behavior in the yield
> curve, confirmed by collapsing inflation expectations, tends to be an
> omen of bad things to come, as proven in the award winning paper
> I co-authored....




https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/some...article-title-comment&redirectFromSplash=true


----------



## AverageJoe

Probably same sentiment to the "taper tantrum" on the stockmarkets and US economy cannot stand on its own 2 feet without QE? Fast forward we have now moved on to the first rate hike so all the recycle gloom and doom coming back. 

All I hear is the world in the three corners are awash with fiat paper and the collapse is coming. Funny Japan with 200%+ dbt to gdp should have collapsed years ago but still chugging along. Hyper inflation from QEs had the goldbugs foaming on the mouth. I wish I could just use the textbook economic logic and apply to analyse and profit.  I know nothing...


----------



## notting

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...l=1#post876262



notting said:


> 20th-July-2015 03:19 PM
> The market was expecting the Chinese reserves to be a little more than what was announced.  *The announcements are lies* so you shouldn't take any notice of them any way.
> 
> They dumped on the market along with the conservative announcement, to ramp it down and break technical lows.  They probably shorted all kinds of gold related instruments last week.
> 
> *I guess they will be doing alot of buying over the coming period at down ramped levels, then they will start printing money and lowering the Yaun.*



*
And we all know now what they have done with the Yuan!!  *


August 14, 2015 10:14 am
*Here you have it -* 



> The People’s Bank of China said it bought 19 tonnes of gold last month as prices traded at their lowest levels in five years. That boosted its gold holdings to 1,677 tonnes (53.93m fine troy ounces) at the end of July, an increase of 1 per cent.



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/942ac8ee-4260-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html#axzz3in0bYBUK

China is playing the world for a sucker.  In some ways that lunatic TRUMP is correct.


----------



## AverageJoe

notting said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...l=1#post876262
> 
> 
> *
> And we all know now what they have done with the Yuan!!  *
> 
> 
> August 14, 2015 10:14 am
> *Here you have it -*
> 
> http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/942ac8ee-4260-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html#axzz3in0bYBUK
> 
> China is playing the world for a sucker.  In some ways that lunatic TRUMP is correct.




Price is price whether you think it is manipulated. All price are manipulated if you look carefully across all asset class. Interest rate is manipulated by each CB to their advantage. Base currency is also manipulated for export advantage. Stocks faces manipulation some suspect the HFT, large funds etc. If you want to make money in these sectors, you have to play the game. You follow these smart money instead head butting them for profits. 

Here is a classic. US housing is below expectation just now and a big selloff in the Fiber which then infected Silver/gold. I closed out my short prematurely front running the US news LOL. I thought and guessed rightly on the negative US news but did not expect the negative response. And here is the price randomness. 

Gold could not test the weekly resistance and have started following suit, stronger USD.  Just as well our AUD is following them down the toilet so those exposed to Gold producers locally with no or not much debt may still preserve margins. Those who were bottom picking cheap and dead producers, it will get worse for the long haul.


----------



## explod

The currency war is on, 

financials going red,  

Gold and silver going green.


----------



## gartley

Going green but one more leg down after this rally finishes to finish the pattern would make me feel more confident.  Me thinks Dec/Jan will be the best time to start looking at Gold again as the biggest rally since the decline started should start.
The same goes for the AUD/USD


----------



## explod

gartley said:


> Going green but one more leg down after this rally finishes to finish the pattern would make me feel more confident.  Me thinks Dec/Jan will be the best time to start looking at Gold again as the biggest rally since the decline started should start.
> The same goes for the AUD/USD




In such a manipulated market who can really follow patterns anymore. 

They could put gold at zero on paper but physical has them stuffed.


----------



## notting

gartley said:


> Going green but one more leg down after this rally finishes to finish the pattern would make me feel more confident.  Me thinks Dec/Jan will be the best time to start looking at Gold again as the biggest rally since the decline started should start.
> The same goes for the AUD/USD




On the money so far!

I was surprised to see Gold sold off today. 
Really indicates that it's more to do with the FED looking to raise than panic over China.


----------



## notting

notting said:


> On the money so far!
> 
> I was surprised to see Gold sold off today.
> Really indicates that it's more to do with the FED looking to raise than panic over China.




I meant to say the FED and Oil! 
Noting the weakness in US transports over the last 3 or 4 months.


----------



## explod

notting said:


> On the money so far!
> 
> I was surprised to see Gold sold off today.
> Really indicates that it's more to do with the FED looking to raise than panic over China.




Just a run for cash to meet margins elsewhere.  Up 5% on the month.   What else is? 

Gold usually rises about 5 days after market tanking.   And then watch.


----------



## gartley

explod said:


> Just a run for cash to meet margins elsewhere.  Up 5% on the month.   What else is?
> 
> Gold usually rises about 5 days after market tanking.   And then watch.





One more leg up for Gold after to around 1190 maybe even over 1200. After that will be interesting to see if it heads for new lows or not. I have a feeling that even if it does it will be only a minor new low and then it will rally.


----------



## notting

explod said:


> Just a run for cash to meet margins elsewhere.  Up 5% on the month.   What else is?
> 
> Gold usually rises about 5 days after market tanking.   And then watch.




So we'd be buying at the end of trade Wednesday or there abouts?

What a yous reckon?


----------



## explod

notting said:


> So we'd be buying at the end of trade Wednesday or there abouts?
> 
> What a yous reckon?




I'd be waiting for the markets to bottom.  Could rout for awhile yet and gold contine to fall.


----------



## notting

explod said:


> I'd be waiting for the markets to bottom.  Could rout for awhile yet and gold contine to fall.




Yeah but, that's the end of the crises so gold would logically go down, given the only thing that seems to make it go up these days is a crises.

If it's going to be bought at all it should have been today!


----------



## qldfrog

notting said:


> Yeah but, that's the end of the crises so gold would logically go down, given the only thing that seems to make it go up these days is a crises.
> 
> If it's going to be bought at all it should have been today!



market did not tank aka 10% or so, some people are still buying at the current price and gold is sold to get the cash needed...the reason in a crash everything goes down at least initially, but I expect it to surge later; in any case, in AUD, I am very happy having some gold...


----------



## explod

Anyone that knows could see this coming. 

I took two bags, kilos,  of pre 46 silver scrap from my dealer Sunday. 

Physical in the hand will be one of the few things safe in my view.  Paper money is going to be fluff.


----------



## AverageJoe

explod said:


> Anyone that knows could see this coming.
> 
> I took two bags, kilos,  of pre 46 silver scrap from my dealer Sunday.
> 
> Physical in the hand will be one of the few things safe in my view.  Paper money is going to be fluff.




What is the spread of that physical Silver you are being charged? The way it is looking on the chart, it may hold for the time being before some dude short it through the support. It is currently losing its PM appeal.


----------



## explod

AverageJoe said:


> What is the spread of that physical Silver you are being charged? The way it is looking on the chart, it may hold for the time being before some dude short it through the support. It is currently losing its PM appeal.




Current spread or in fact paper price is of little concern. 

Paid $650 a kilo bag,  the coins if you sort have thier own values.  Note some good ones in the mix. 

My purpose is long term accumulation,  in the hand,  not in some bank or part of the paper shuffle. 

Current AUS silver price $663, Davis Melbourne's price a bag today $645

Sure the price may drop further with the markets but as I stated a number of times recently watch it rise when markets have bottomed and we could be a fair way off that in the current implosion.   More stacking opportunities perhaps. 

But just my humble take.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Current AUS silver price $663, Davis Melbourne's price a bag today $645




But the bag is not 100% silver, it's only 92.5% silver.

663 * 0.925 = 613.27

645/613.27 = 1.0517 ...so you are paying a 5% premium over spot. Not that the spot price matters for junk silver, because dealers will never pay the spot price to buy it back. You'll probably get 5% or more below spot.

Just to set the record straight for the gold thread, compared to how you displayed it.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> But the bag is not 100% silver, it's only 92.5% silver.
> 
> 663 * 0.925 = 613.27
> 
> 645/613.27 = 1.0517 ...so you are paying a 5% premium over spot. Not that the spot price matters for junk silver, because dealers will never pay the spot price to buy it back. You'll probably get 5% or more below spot.
> 
> Just to set the record straight for the gold thread, compared to how you displayed it.




If silver goes to $300, which I expect down the track who cares.  Currently silver gold ratio 74/1 historicaly,  15/1 and less silver than gold due its industrial uses,  solar panels ect.,  I expect the ratio to change dramatically the other way when the penny drops.   And in my view when the markets and currencies exhaust themselves the next runup in gold will surpass $3000.

I am not a trader,  my outlook ahead is 5 to 10 years.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> If silver goes to $300, which I expect down the track who cares.




More like 50c!


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> More like 50c!




A joke perhaps 

In 1946 a floren was 2 shillings,  today $5,  up 2500%, but agree,  everything is a punt


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> A joke perhaps
> 
> In 1946 a floren was 2 shillings,  today $5,  up 2500%, but agree,  everything is a punt




http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/silver-dollar.html



> I highlighted that bit at the end about $10,000 gold and 50 cent silver because I want to explain my take on it. On the day FOA wrote that post, gold was $261 and silver was $4.37. FOA was talking about a revaluation, so I think that if we want to get inside his mind and see what he was envisioning, we should pay more attention to the revaluation multiples than the nominal prices he mentioned.
> 
> For gold to go from $261 to $10,000 would be a revaluation multiple of 38.3 (10,000/261=38.3). And for silver to go from $4.37 to 50 cents would be a devaluation divisor of 8.74 (4.37/8.74=0.50). Based on today's prices, that's gold at $45K "at the very least", and silver at $1.85 per ounce. If we want to put that in ratio terms by weight (which is a metric that doesn't make sense in Freegold because they will be used in different ways, it only makes sense for things being used in the same way, i.e., as an investment), that's a GSR of 24,324:1. At $10K to 50 cents, it's 20:000:1. And at $55,000 gold, 20,000:1 silver is $2.75 per ounce, one of the slight differences being that the GSR was 60:1 when FOA wrote his post, and today it's 72:1.




...



> FOA (08/09/01; 10:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#93)
> "everything to do with a gold bull market"
> 
> […]
> 
> This not only has "everything to do with a gold bull market", it has everything to do with a changing world financial architecture. And I have to admit: if you hated our last one, you will no doubt hate this new one, too. However, everyone that is positioned in physical gold will carry this storm in fantastic shape. This is because the ECB has no intentions of backing their currency with gold and every intention of using gold as a "free trading" financial reserve. *None of the other metals will play a part in this.*
> 
> Clearly, the coming drastic constriction in dollar financial trade will trigger a super "print press" response from the Fed. They will not be pushing on a string; rather picking up the ball of twine and throwing it! All the while using the old 1980s "monetary control act" that opens their use of monetizing almost anything and everything. They won't be adding reserves to the banking system in the future; rather buying any and all debts from anyone that needs fresh cash. Believe it!
> 
> *For the first time,,,,,,,, our industrial production, along with the demand for industrial metals like silver, will fall away* even as hyper inflation in prices takes hold.
> 
> For the first time,,,,,,,, demonstrating that no other asset is equal to gold, even though promoted to be!
> 
> When the coming paper illusion price of gold is destroyed, sending its trading price way up and way down, several times, before shutdown,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the thinner paper markets of lesser metals will be absolutely devastated. *Yes we will see $50.00 silver in our time,,,,,, $50.00 for a hundred ounce bar,,,,, that is! No less a relative price decline for the other metals is in store. Even if these actual dollar numbers prove incorrect,,,,,, relative inflation adjusted prices will show the exact same ratios to gold.* The gain will truly be in gold!


----------



## sinner

Just for fun...


----------



## sinner

I do not want the price of gold to go up, it just makes accumulation more difficult. 

But this does not exactly look bearish. To me it looks more like a 4 year long accumulation pattern, unless we are heading back towards ~1350 from here.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> View attachment 64045
> 
> 
> I do not want the price of gold to go up, it just makes accumulation more difficult.
> 
> But this does not exactly look bearish. To me it looks more like a 4 year long accumulation pattern, unless we are heading back towards ~1350 from here.




Agree on both points. 

It is a very volatile chart but as you say the direction is clearly up. But a real break to the upside could be a fair way down the track yet.  Good stacking weather.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> It is a very volatile chart but as you say the direction is clearly up.




What I said is that it looks like an accumulation pattern (*to me*). That's a type of range.




But looking at the above diagram, perhaps the entire period 1982-2002 was the accumulation and this is just 're-accumulation'.



(h/t goldprice.org)


----------



## gartley

I follow and trade gold with great interest.   Here I want to look at gold from various angles and methods to see if the different forms of analysis can show some sort of confluence. The 3 forms of analysis I like to look at are pattern, price and time.

Firstly pattern.The first chart is a long term EW chart which I have labelled together with various alternates. At this juncture the 3 alternates that I am looking at do not conflict with the primary impulse wave count. All 3 suggest gold is coming into a low or some sort of low (not necessarily THE low) in the months a head. It's been a long and brutal bear market the last 5 years especially for the gold miners. It does not look like it's quite there yet. Regardless which wave count is  chosen it has to be quantified by other methods which we will look at later in order to be the most probable count.

From an EW perspective IF  supercycle wave 1 completed in 1980, then what followed was supercycle wave 2 which lasted 19 years(in delta terms a metonic cycle- more on this in later posts). This second wave was classified as a sharp correction as it was very deep. IF supercycle wave 3 completed in 2011, then the subsequent fourth wave ( if we are in fact dealing with an impulse here) should  be sideways relative to wave 2 if one follows EW guidelines. It most likely will take the form of a contracting triangle, flat or irregular flat ( we can't tell yet).

For those who are Ellioticians, my apologies for not following the standard EW Nomeclature. It was impossible to do with Motivewave software and I have differentiated the varying degrees of trend by different colours and font sizes with Red being Supercycle degree. In the next post I will attempt to drill down to a lower timeframe.

Ultimately in the end what we hope to do is plan to build a case or not for entry possibly by years end


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some big moves coming up soon - not for the faint hearted......

Supply does not equal demand, finally?


----------



## gartley

In post #11328 we looked at spot Gold on a monthly basis and tried fit our best EW count into the pattern. From and EW perspective the pattern looked incomplete. I did say in that post that we would try and zoom into the smaller timeframe next to try and quantify this wavecount because it's only that a "wave count" and it's my opinion.

It's not enough information to build a case for entry so before we zoom into the lower degree wave count we want to look at Spot Gold from a Cycles viewpoint to try and quantify that wave count and it's alternates to either keep it or discard it.

I have attached a monthly cycles analysis in Spot Gold. Taking these charts at face value, by every measure in this analysis Gold has either bottomed at these levels OR is in the process of bottoming before a major countertrend rally to the upside starts. The 86 Bar cycle is rock bottom relative to previous extremes and the 22 and 43 bar cycles have been already  trending up since last year. The momentum divergence cycles show divergence to the upside.
Most important the price projection targets have already been met and the FLD( Future lines of Demarcation) are at opposites suggesting a reversal is imminent.

So exciting times ahead and we should be closely looking at the gold miners for reversals here IMO


----------



## Uncle Festivus

gartley said:


> So exciting times ahead and we should be closely looking at the gold miners for reversals here IMO




Already started? NCM up 7% yesterday, 20% off the lows, with volume.

Move along, nothing to see here.........?

So the biggest 'macro event' of the century crashed & burned? No normalisation of US rates, as predicted? They have now admitted that things are not as rosy as they have previously portrayed, only they have not had the fortitude to blame it on themselves, instead citing concerns about everybody else's worsening predicaments. 

And so the formerly all powerful US Fed has now been reduced to the laughing stock that it really is, only that now the sheeples are beginning to catch on that they don't have a clue about what to do from here. They are financial eunuchs now (you too Janet ) with ever reducing credibility, at the mercy of the bond markets who will start to make the decisions for them.

Along with the Comex 'not a problem', it will be an interesting next few weeks/months for gold.


----------



## lftrader

I liked the price action in gold last week and I will start buying some GLD on Monday. I believe the US Fed made a mistake not raising rates and soon inflation will pick up and they will be forced to move. But I am not going to risk more than 5% total on gold.


----------



## CanOz

lftrader said:


> I liked the price action in gold last week and I will start buying some GLD on Monday. I believe the US Fed made a mistake not raising rates and soon inflation will pick up and they will be forced to move. But I am not going to risk more than 5% total on gold.





If your hypothesis about inflation is correct, we should have seen the short end of the yield curve spike higher, not drop lower....or are you the first person on this trade?


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> If your hypothesis about inflation is correct, we should have seen the short end of the yield curve spike higher, not drop lower....or are you the first person on this trade?




Should we have? Not sure how you came to that conclusion.

The short end of the curve is controlled by the Fed.

The long end of the curve is marginally controlled by growth and inflation expectations.

Yes, yields went down on the long end as well. But I think reading too much into short term moves in bond markets for the type of inflation that is coming would be a *big* mistake.

The inevitable "inflation recognition moment" (as the inflation [of the global reserve reference point, i.e. US base money] has already actually happened over decades) will not occur in the financial plane (cash v bonds) but rather in the physical plane (USD vs real goods and services which make up the US trade deficit) as the ever expanding volume of marginal deficit dollars finds fewer and fewer foreign sector bids, requiring an ever expanding volume of base money to make up the difference and thus leading to the worst kind of feedback loop.

Those looking to financial markets to try and time this recognition moment, at least personally I feel, will be sorely disappointed as it is likely to be a rather sudden phase transition from "USD, global reserve asset" to "US Peso vs gold" (along with most currencies probably). My opinion being that it's best to deleverage and lay claim to stuff in the physical plane while the music is still playing than attempt to find a chair once it stops.

If only there was a discrete, durable and portable wealth asset which could fulfil this role :dunno:


----------



## CanOz

Good points Sinner. I guess my point was that when and if (a big if) inflation is thought to appear, then why would bond yields not reflect this at some point on the curve? They always have before have they not? Yeah, short term on the front end its all fed.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Good points Sinner. I guess my point was that when and if (a big if) inflation is thought to appear, then why would bond yields not reflect this at some point on the curve?




As FOA once said:



> "My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat. As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed. This is where all these deflationists get their direction. Not seeing that hyperinflation is the process of saving debt at all costs, even buying it outright for cash. Deflation is impossible in today's dollar terms because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt and dumping it on your front lawn! (smile) Worthless dollars, of course, but no deflation in dollar terms! (bigger smile)"




In case the above is too cryptic for you:

debt == US bonds
fiat == money supply
cash == base money

Bond yields live in the financial plane. In the financial plane, the Fed dominates and is undefeatable. They do after all, control the supply of the global reserve asset.

Now, if the financial plane controlled the real/physical plane, then that would be that and the MMTers would be right. But I guess by now you know that I think that's rather silly, merely an illusion caused by recency bias of ~50 years of foreign sector support for the USD.

The physical plane controls the financial plane. In the physical plane, the Fed + USG is a kitten, only able to ever expand the USD in volume, not value. All that matters here is what medium the marginal producers/savers of the world choose to do their saving (read, reserve asset) in.



> They always have before have they not?




define always? define inflation? We've had essentially 100 years of "good inflation", so I guess most could be forgiven for assuming we'll never see "bad inflation" ever again or even knowing that such a thing exists.


----------



## CanOz

> n case the above is too cryptic for you:
> 
> debt == US bonds
> fiat == money supply
> cash == base money




Thanks for pointing that out....

Yeah, i get that this time is very different. Thanks.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Thanks for pointing that out....
> 
> Yeah, i get that this time is very different. Thanks.




No offense meant, it was too cryptic for me for a long time, just trying to explain for those playing at home.

More on the topic of "inflation v hyperinflation" here 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/inflation-or-hyperinflation.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Good points Sinner. I guess my point was that when and if (a big if) inflation is thought to appear, then why would bond yields not reflect this at some point on the curve? They always have before have they not? Yeah, short term on the front end its all fed.




Depends on which inflation you are referring to? With the emergence of an alternative reserve global currency Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) the US will fight to the last to maintain the USD role in support of it's financial & political agendas enabled by having the global reserve currency?

As Sinner points out, I'm not sure the 'flip' point will be a gradual affair, and they will have to 'inflate' to pay the for the shortfall as 'others' decide they no longer need USD's?

I think there will be some good returns to be made from gold but more leverage from gold companies, as usual?


----------



## sinner

That's a lot of question marks there UF...



Uncle Festivus said:


> Depends on which inflation you are referring to? With the emergence of an alternative reserve global currency Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)




Why would the world ever adopt another currency as the global reserve when all the marginal producer blocs have all been moving towards using gold as the reserve asset and setting their currencies free? 

A: they wouldn't, they won't.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/euro-gold.html?m=1


> You see, there are two fundamental differences between the euro and the dollar that most Westerners simply can't grasp, no matter how many times you try to explain their significance. Wim Duisenberg, the first ECB president, stated them pretty clearly in this 2002 speech:
> 
> "The euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro."




You ask



> the US will fight to the last to maintain the USD role in support of it's financial & political agendas enabled by having the global reserve currency?




Nope. Why would they do that? 

A: they wouldn't, they won't.



> In my 2009 post Gold is Money – Part 2, I wrote, "And it was always known, but has now been proven, that the system will be saved at ANY cost." When I wrote that I was discussing the dollar and the dollar system, aka the $IMFS, aka Wall Street. But this applies to any monetary and financial system. The system always takes political precedence over the currency. The currency will always be debased if that is needed to keep the system functioning nominally. This is nothing new and it should not be surprising, yet it's apparently very surprising to 99.9% of all financial analysts




You ask 



> I think there will be some good returns to be made from gold but more leverage from gold companies, as usual?




This was not logically congruent before when I asked you and it is no more congruent today. Gold mining companies will underperform not outperform physical gold. More likely they or their output will be nationalised.


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> Nope. Why would they do that?
> 
> Gold mining companies will underperform not outperform physical gold. More likely they or their output will be nationalised.




Agree,  keep stacking those 92.5% silver coins.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> Agree,  keep stacking those 92.5% silver coins.




Silver is an industrial commodity, it is not a global reserve asset, nor do I possibly see how it can be adopted as one considering its many many industrial applications. May as well be suggesting people stack barrels of oil or bushels of wheat.

I do not espouse buying silver although I do hold a small amount (<$500 worth) of old sterling because it's pretty.


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> Silver is an industrial commodity, it is not a global reserve asset, nor do I possibly see how it can be adopted as one considering its many many industrial applications.




So the more useless something is, the better suited it is as a reserve asset.


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> So the more useless something is, the better suited it is as a reserve asset.




Being useless is one of a handful of very important properties, *yes, absolutely*.

Imagine you are the any of the marginal net producers. Huge daily cash inflows that exceed your blocs consumption by hundreds of orders of magnitude. 

It's your job to save the surplus so that in 100, 200, 500, 1000 years from now that wealth is still there.

Pretty much anything you touch in that case is going to immediately go into permanent backwardation. Most things you could theoretically purchase for the role of savings is going to fall under the category of hoarding and cause problems in the global economy, usually supply disruptions, but also often capital misallocation.

So you need something which is useless (the more useless the better!) to fulfil a very important economic function! Counterintuitive I know and yet if you look at the balance sheet of any Central Bank in the world you will see two very useless things there in the assets column: digital book-keeping entries representing foreign CB liabilities to your balance sheet and gold.

Of course gold has some properties that the book-keeping entries don't. For example, it's (very, very) durable. Also it happens to be essentially indivisible, nobody can print gold and dilute it. I'm sure if you put your thinking cap on you'll be able to think of the other important properties unique to gold 

I won't go into what happens when you try and use the book-keeping entries as the reserve asset, you can see it all around you today. That's the world we live in!

This is an understanding that is plain commonsense for most of the world, but the Western citizen has been trained to "forget" over time. Those in charge of the digital book-keeping entries of course always remember 

Here's John Locke from a while back, penning this stuff in English for probably the first time ever:
http://www.constitution.org/jl/2ndtr05.htm?PageSpeed=noscript



> Sec. 46.
> The greatest part of things really useful to the life of man, and such as the necessity of subsisting made the first commoners of the world look after, as it doth the Americans now, are generally things of short duration; such as, if they are not consumed by use, will decay and perish of themselves: g*old, silver and diamonds, are things that fancy or agreement hath put the value on, more than real use, and the necessary support of life*. Now of those good things which nature hath provided in common, every one had a right (as hath been said) to as much as he could use, and property in all that he could effect with his labour; all that his industry could extend to, to alter from the state nature had put it in, was his. He that gathered a hundred bushels of acorns or apples, had thereby a property in them, they were his goods as soon as gathered. He was only to look, that he used them before they spoiled, else he took more than his share, and robbed others. *And indeed it was a foolish thing, as well as dishonest, to hoard up more than he could make use of.* If he gave away a part to any body else, so that it perished not uselesly in his possession, these he also made use of. And if he also bartered away plums, that would have rotted in a week, for nuts that would last good for his eating a whole year, he did no injury; he wasted not the common stock; destroyed no part of the portion of goods that belonged to others, so long as nothing perished uselesly in his hands. *Again, if he would give his nuts for a piece of metal, pleased with its colour; or exchange his sheep for shells, or wool for a sparkling pebble or a diamond, and keep those by him all his life he invaded not the right of others, he might heap up as much of these durable things as he pleased; the exceeding of the bounds of his just property not lying in the largeness of his possession, but the perishing of any thing uselesly in it.*
> 
> Sec. 47.
> And thus came in the use of money, some lasting thing that men might keep without spoiling, and that *by mutual consent men would take in exchange for the truly useful, but perishable supports of life.*




EDIT: Meant backwardation, originally said contango.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> That's a lot of question marks there UF...




So let's see - the 3 points at issue - 

1 - The AIIB - there will always some sort of fiat regime, possibly even a true global one in the future, despite what the gold bugs would like/proclaim? The only reason why it doesn't work is because there's no discipline, entirely unlinked & discretionary. And the US get's to call the shot's by having the default global currency but continually recklessly abuse that privilege ie their federal debt and future liabilities. If or when they decide to have a go at a proper fiat, most likely backed to some degree by a portion of gold and other currencies (also backed by gold or pm's) only time will tell.

2 - the US defending the USD - they are and they will defend it as they have shown repeatedly through Fed action and militarily. It's the only way they can continue  to live beyond their means at the expense of the rest of the world. It enables them to keep poking their uninvited fingers into everyone else's business.....

3 - leverage from gold equities - both historically and recently, as in the last few weeks, gold equities have outperformed gold on a percentage basis. It seems odd that you don't want to take advantage of that, considering your beliefs about the direction of the underlying product? My only concern is not about gold companies being nationalised but whether there will be an open exchange to trade them on, if one option open to the market honchos is to halt trading of all equities when or if the second part of the GFC starts to really get going......


----------



## sinner

None of this makes any sense at all UF.



Uncle Festivus said:


> So let's see - the 3 points at issue -
> 
> 1 - The AIIB - there will always some sort of fiat regime, possibly even a true global one in the future, despite what the gold bugs would like/proclaim? The only reason why it doesn't work is because there's no discipline, entirely unlinked & discretionary. And the US get's to call the shot's by having the default global currency but continually recklessly abuse that privilege ie their federal debt and future liabilities. If or when they decide to have a go at a proper fiat, most likely backed to some degree by a portion of gold and other currencies (also backed by gold or pm's) only time will tell.




So we are always going to have a fiat regime, and it's gonna be backed by gold, other currencies and other PMs? 

My prediction: all currencies float against physical only gold market made by the BIS/ECB at much higher levels than current.



> 2 - the US defending the USD - they are and they will defend it as they have shown repeatedly through Fed action and militarily. It's the only way they can continue  to live beyond their means at the expense of the rest of the world. It enables them to keep poking their uninvited fingers into everyone else's business.....




Not really sure how any Fed actions so far constitute defence. The US is a remarkable country full of remarkable things and lots of remarkable potential. Why would they drown themselves trying to save the USD? 

Not really sure what you possibly mean by militarily except unless you are referring to people who think the US invaded places like Iraq or Libya because they were threatening to sell oil in non USD countries. Nope, much simpler, just to guarantee the flow of oil, regardless of the currency. It's called *energy security*.



> 3 - leverage from gold equities - both historically and recently, as in the last few weeks, gold equities have outperformed gold on a percentage basis. It seems odd that you don't want to take advantage of that, considering your beliefs about the direction of the underlying product? My only concern is not about gold companies being nationalised but whether there will be an open exchange to trade them on, if one option open to the market honchos is to halt trading of all equities when or if the second part of the GFC starts to really get going......




We have been over this a million times so it should not be odd at all. Your rationale, as you have stated previously, is that you think you can time what's coming and believe you will be able to sell gold mining shares for a paper profit to convert it into gold or some other random process I'll never grasp the logic of. Which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. I believe "rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic" or "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" would make good descriptions of such a strategy.

As for gold equities having outperformed gold historically, or recently, LOL. First of all, no they haven't. The $HUI (Gold Bugs Index) which has been trading since the late 90s and tracking unhedged producers, is currently trading at $104, the same price it was trading in 1997! Here's the long term ratio chart just in case anyone thought UF was being serious.



Caption: gold stocks completely crushed on a relative performance basis compared to cash gold during the biggest bull market cash gold has seen in decades.


Secondly, any perceived outperformance as I have already explained is only a function of beta. What fundamentalists might call operational leverage to the price of gold. Adjusted for beta, again, no they haven't. You're fooling yourself if you think betting on gold miners represents what you think it does, or if you don't think a better result could be achieved by merely leveraging the cash gold FOREX or front month futures. I have already explained in this thread what high beta does to geometric returns and you can see it plain as day in the above chart.

But it's your money I guess :bonk:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> But it's your money I guess :bonk:




I tried....I think your trees are getting in the way of your forest?

Anyway, some nice moves overnight in gold, so should see gold equities shine, again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Hey look at that! Gold up 2.7% and NEM up 8%! Let's see how NCM goes?


----------



## rimtas

Gold should go higher towards 1400 till the year end sporting an Expandet Flat, or at least to 1200 under different scenario. 


View attachment 64455


----------



## Value Collector

sinner said:


> It's your job to save the surplus so that in 100, 200, 500, 1000 years from now that wealth is still there.
> 
> .




I think I would prefer to have a diverse portfolio of useful assets managed like the crown estate if that was my time frame.

The crown estate has held its assets for centuries, and they have grown in size, and produces hundreds of millions of dollars each year for the benefit of the royal family and the government in a 15%/85% split.

They own office buildings, apartments and other housing, shopping malls, industrial land, mining assets, farming land, forestry, power generation, business assets and much more. Throwing of 100's of millions each year in profits while maintaining and growing net worth.


----------



## sinner

Value Collector said:


> I think I would prefer to have a diverse portfolio of useful assets managed like the crown estate if that was my time frame.
> 
> The crown estate has held its assets for centuries, and they have grown in size, and produces hundreds of millions of dollars each year for the benefit of the royal family and the government in a 15%/85% split.




The Crown Estate is like...10 or 20 billion GBP if I remember correctly.

I am talking about the ECB, or PBoC, or SAMA. They *already* own the most profitable, desirable aggregate business *sectors* in the world. 

For example, the Euro area current account surplus currently sitting at 18 billion. So we are talking one Crown Estate worth of surplus *every year*. So let's say next year they go and buy the entire Crown Estate. Now what? lol.

ECB is on the puny end of the giant scale. Look at the kind of current accounts the Saudis or China rack up each year. Hint, it's significantly more than the ECB and we are talking decades of surplus.

What you would prefer is of course entirely up to you!


----------



## Wysiwyg

Not a hedge in this equities down trend? Well I suppose nothing is the same as it was and all smart asses get knocked on their ass --- eventually.


----------



## sinner

Wysiwyg said:


> Not a hedge in this equities down trend?




um...didn't the AUD price of gold just trade at a 6 month high a few days ago?

Also...












> Well I suppose nothing is the same as it was and all smart asses get knocked on their ass --- eventually.




Let me guess:
1. You lost some more money on crappy daytrades (this part's not a guess).
2. In your frustration looking for something to trade on super leverage to make back your money.
3. You notice your CFD providers XAUUSD chart looks like it's going down.
4. Come on here to gloat, ignoring the irony that your current strategy is to lose money and write it off on tax.

I'm sure you'll be back next time you forget that physical gold purchased in Australia is priced in AUD, that physical gold isn't bought on leverage, that physical gold is not a trading instrument bought for short term returns, and so on.

Keep losing, I'll keep buying physical gold with a portion of my productive surplus


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hey look at that! Gold up 2.7% and NEM up 8%! Let's see how NCM goes?




Nice work UF, almost perfectly picked the top in NCM and perfectly picked it in NEM


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> um...didn't the AUD price of gold just trade at a 6 month high a few days ago?
> 
> 
> Keep losing, I'll keep buying physical gold with a portion of my productive surplus



You're good!


----------



## sinner

One of the things that most people like to say is that gold does not provide any return.

This is generally when I try to point out that holding gold is like holding cash in your shoebox, which provides an identical (0) return.

But this news has to make one wonder:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/auction-usa-bills-idUSL1N1251G820151005
*UPDATE 1-U.S. sells 3-month bills at zero interest*

A single example of a much broader spectrum, where forecast nominal returns for some investments might still be above 0, but real returns for pretty much every asset class have been pushed to the same (0) return as gold.

Developed 10Y Govs:
Bund: 0.55% p.a.
JGB: 0.31% p.a.
UST: 2.05% p.a.
Aus: 2.6% p.a.

7Y equity valuation forecasts from GMO Capital (March 2015, USD priced):
US large: -2% p.a.
US small: -3.2% p.a.
International large: -0.1% p.a.
International small: -0.3% p.a.
Emerging: 2.7% p.a.

My own napkin based valuations for the ASX200 imply a ~3% p.a. 10Y forecast, about the same as average yields on the average Sydney rental at current prices/rents. For reference, headline CPI as released by the ABS ran 1.5% YoY in the June quarter but the weighted median was nearly double that (much closer to the 10Y Aus gov yield)!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Nice work UF, almost perfectly picked the top in NCM and perfectly picked it in NEM




What top?
NEM


NCM


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Interesting. Resolution December/January?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Resolution December/January?




Which year this time?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Which year this time?




When the pennant runs out. I thunk


----------



## sinner

Examining half a year of daily bars for the AUD price of gold, my read is that recent action has not been too conducive to further momentum.

The large single day down move in July appeared to be a shakeout after price consolidated below previous support and then powered up ~1640 about a month later. But after the retracement back to ~1550 the proceeding rally attempts above ~1650 have all slowly petered out after their initial move.

The most recent short term swing low at 1568 coincides with a couple of other previous support/resistance points.


----------



## Bill M

This is the most unscientific interpretation of where the gold price is heading. I bought some bullion just over 2 weeks ago, it's bound to go south from here, usually does when I start speculating on commodities. Glad I didn't put the house on it.:1zhelp:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Which year this time?




Hey trembles, what brings you over to prepperville?

2015. A bit conservative as it's already broken that formation, still a long way to go, so just leverage it with gold equities - NEM up 5%, gold up 2% today, sheeple equities slightly tanking, again. The farce continues......




http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-10-1...-Data-Bullish-Charts-Slumping-U-S-Dollar.html


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> But after the retracement back to ~1550 the proceeding rally attempts above ~1650 have all slowly petered out after their initial move.




More of the same


----------



## explod

sinner said:


> More of the same
> 
> View attachment 64773




Bottom support line holding.   With currencies entering a fight it could be and interesting week.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Examining half a year of daily bars for the AUD price of gold, my read is that recent action has not been too conducive to further momentum.
> 
> ...
> 
> But after the retracement back to ~1550 the proceeding rally attempts above ~1650 have all slowly petered out after their initial move.




More of the same, not so slow this time.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> None of this makes any sense at all UF.
> 
> As for gold equities having outperformed gold historically, or recently, LOL. First of all, no they haven't. The $HUI (Gold Bugs Index) which has been trading since the late 90s and tracking unhedged producers, is currently trading at $104, the same price it was trading in 1997! Here's the long term ratio chart just in case anyone thought UF was being serious.
> 
> Secondly, any perceived outperformance as I have already explained is only a function of beta. What fundamentalists might call operational leverage to the price of gold. Adjusted for beta, again, no they haven't. You're fooling yourself if you think betting on gold miners represents what you think it does, or if you don't think a better result could be achieved by merely leveraging the cash gold FOREX or front month futures. I have already explained in this thread what high beta does to geometric returns and you can see it plain as day in the above chart.
> 
> But it's your money I guess :bonk:






Uncle Festivus said:


> I tried....I think your trees are getting in the way of your forest?
> 
> Anyway, some nice moves overnight in gold, so should see gold equities shine, again.






Uncle Festivus said:


> Hey look at that! Gold up 2.7% and NEM up 8%! Let's see how NCM goes?






sinner said:


> Nice work UF, almost perfectly picked the top in NCM and perfectly picked it in NEM






Uncle Festivus said:


> What top?




Well, gold has had a tumble since this little exchange, even priced in AUD.

But I thought it was worth revisiting, since the move is a perfect example of the point I was trying to make in the beginning. Any perceived outperformance of gold equities vs gold is usually just a high beta to the gold price.

Gold might be down, but there is definitely one thing it can buy more of than before the tumble, gold miners, which were once again crushed relative to gold, yay beta.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Well, gold has had a tumble since this little exchange, even priced in AUD.
> 
> But I thought it was worth revisiting, since the move is a perfect example of the point I was trying to make in the beginning. Any perceived outperformance of gold equities vs gold is usually just a high beta to the gold price.
> 
> Gold might be down, but there is definitely one thing it can buy more of than before the tumble, gold miners, which were once again crushed relative to gold, yay beta.




Actually no, gold equity prices are not lower than last time, no lower lows, yet, at least not for NCM. Looking for equities to lead the charge again. 

You can't deny that the gains that were made were real and tradeable ie an opportunity to make very good profits, despite some philosophical stance against that???

And so, looking to yet again buy more of both - physical & equities - leading into December.

Both back into buying zones - gold in $AU terms maybe not as attractive but not sure if we will get another op for lower prices.....$AU will get hit once the employment numbers get revisioned away in December, again?

NCM getting close to support, buying at under $11....again.

December will be 'interesting' as global central bankers will finally have to deal with the mess they have created, and the gold 'custodians' will have to stand or deliver........literally.


----------



## Wysiwyg

So from a pattern perspective, the daily descending triangle broke lower on Friday and was bought back up Monday and Tuesday to above the support area. What can be predicted from here I don't know as patterns (bearish in this instance) are created by people so can be altered by people. Definitely a decision point to go up for an oversold case or down for a continuity case.


----------



## So_Cynical

Wysiwyg said:


> Definitely a decision point to go up for an oversold case or down for a continuity case.




Supply is in destruction mode, no new mines, old mines depleting while demand is steady..peak Gold could well be right now.


----------



## CanOz

The 1000 handle on gold will be almost magnetic in my view, i.e. - there will be a point where the market should really accelerate towards this level as shorts pile on and longs stand aside for the inevitable bounce at 1000. Then of course we can look forward to Goldman pushing the stops out sub 1000 again


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gold not believing the US Fed policy error is sustainable??

The tides going out and the Fed is starkers!


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Examining half a year of daily bars for the AUD price of gold, my read is that recent action has not been too conducive to further momentum.




In mid October I provided a warning that the current momentum which had pushed XAU*AUD* to the top of its price daily chart price range was showing signs of weakness and unlikely to continue.

Bill M also noted amusingly at the time that his "I just bought gold so it must be time to drop" indicator had recently gone off.

Few months later, here we are:




What's my prognostication for 2016? Well as usual I my thoughts tend to follow the musings on FOFOA, so further declines in the USD price of gold are forecast. However I am also forecasting proportional declines in physical availability, i.e. the XAUUSD could go to $600 but undeliverable in size. Gold miners to get crushed in this scenario, as the price drops below production costs.


----------



## Bill M

sinner said:


> Bill M also noted amusingly at the time that his "I just bought gold so it must be time to drop" indicator had recently gone off.




I think about my small purchase and that post I wrote quite a lot. I am no expert on Gold but it is not what I call a good investment. I don't think it's going anywhere (bit like the XAO but at least that pays dividends for my pension) and I was planning to revisit that message of mine in 12 Months time.  I do not think gold is a very good investment. Luckily it wasn't much more than just a dabble. 

If I had to make a bet right now on which would be higher by year end (in AUD terms including dividends) Gold or the XAO, I will bet on the XAO. Let's see what happens.

Today in AUD the POG is $1,562 at 17:08 Hours source http://goldprice.org/
and
Today the XAO closed at 4,969


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Finally, looks like one market is right and one market is wrong.
One group of Keynesians (central bankers) are becoming increasingly irrelevant.
One 'commodity' isn't in a glut......supply won't equal demand. 
Then it will be interesting......as the non believers look for alternatives.
Perhaps it is becoming interesting now?
NFP will disappoint as the last of the data prints plays catch up to the real economy.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting. Resolution December/January?






Trembling Hand said:


> Which year this time?




2015. I'll try and get the exact day next time.

Looking a bit 'extended' here? It would need a particularly weak NFP to break through in this thrust?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Still going - noyce! Where are the monkey hammerers? All out of hammers at Comex?


----------



## explod

A few of us still about Unc.,  

Happy new year and all. 

comex are happy with the printing press.  Just before the festive around 300 contracts to the ounce,  recently hit 540 so yeeehaaaar. 

Rumours of currency reballance and stablisation to tangible value indicating $50,000 to the ounce.  So looking for $2,000 silver for my cave in the hills. 

Not one for dreams but we'll see. 

And on charts Uncle,  have you looked at NST and RMS lately.  Somone believes.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> And on charts Uncle,  have you looked at NST and RMS lately.  Somone believes.




Not getting crushed?




With NST, as with gold, supply can't keep up with demand.....




An interesting thing, usually when the general market is tanking big time like today, goldies get taken down too, but not today. A shift in sentiment?


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> comex are happy with the printing press.  Just before the festive around 300 contracts to the ounce, * recently hit 540 *so yeeehaaaar.




Source, fact and figures please??? or leave the rubbish at the door...........


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Source, fact and figures please??? or leave the rubbish at the door...........




http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...016/01-overflow/comex gold%coverage ratio.jpg


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Source, fact and figures please??? or leave the rubbish at the door...........




You accusing me of making a faulse statement Champ? 

Its from a chart published recently on zerohedge going back 15 years of comex paper contracts to the ounce of gold.  I am not able to copy charts on my iPhone. Perhaps someone can pick it up.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

explod said:


> You accusing me of making a faulse statement Champ?
> 
> Its from a chart published recently on zerohedge going back 15 years of comex paper contracts to the ounce of gold.  I am not able to copy charts on my iPhone. Perhaps someone can pick it up.







Is this it? Your link isn't working.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> You accusing me of making a faulse statement Champ?
> 
> Its from a chart published recently on zerohedge going back 15 years of comex paper contracts to the ounce of gold.  I am not able to copy charts on my iPhone. Perhaps someone can pick it up.




Well kinda.

That chart is open interest of all holders to what Comex has on hand. Can you explain that? Can you tell me how much of the open interest are straight long plays? Can you tell me how many have the capacity to take physical delivery compared to being exercised physical delivery? Can you tell me why the open interest has fallen 11% in the last month? And is that Bullish/Bearish? or otherwise? Can you tell me how many shorts are speculative versus commercial sellers? What percentage of the settled contracts are forced to settle in gold vs just cash going by the futures contract specifications?


----------



## explod

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Is this it? Your link isn't working.




Yep,  that's it and thanks for posting.  Yes realised my link would not go hence the second post.   Your chart does not show the latest six months but it directs to the vibe and certainly a huge increase if latest figures are correct. 

I am not a dogmatic follower in all such things but gossip around the traps are indicators to bear in mind,,   IMHO


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Well kinda.
> 
> That chart is open interest of all holders to what Comex has on hand. Can you explain that? Can you tell me how much of the open interest are straight long plays? Can you tell me how many have the capacity to take physical delivery compared to being exercised physical delivery? Can you tell me why the open interest has fallen 11% in the last month? And is that Bullish/Bearish? or otherwise? Can you tell me how many shorts are speculative versus commercial sellers? What percentage of the settled contracts are forced to settle in gold vs just cash going by the futures contract specifications?




First of all, I would say, actually who cares because COMEX GC volume is a sideshow compared to LBMA and OTC FX XAUUSD+XAUEUR where the volumes are *huge*. People analysing COMEX data are looking at the small toe of the big giant that is "unallocated gold credit trading". Today, LBMA+OTC is what is driving all prices, be that COMEX GC, GLD or physical.

Factswise, COMEX GC can declare "force majeure" at their discretion and settlement under that circumstance can only occur in either GLD shares or cash. GLD shares are not redeemable for physical under a minimum threshold which is higher than most retail peoples net worth. It's unlikely legitimate market participants (e.g. mines selling future output) would be happy with such a situation, but regardless written in the contract plain as day.

If all one wants is to win some "more dollars" when the chart goes to the upper right, any old paper will do. All I can say is enjoy your "more dollars". If one wants to hold some of their net worth in a 0 duration nonfinancial asset, then the only thing that is an ounce of physical gold is an ounce of physical gold. "More dollars" people want the chart in the upper right, those seeking the latter goal will be much more content with the chart on the lower right where accumulation is simpler.

Meanwhile, as people froth over the small toe, XAUAUD is trading awfully close to its 2011 high, 



while unhedged global gold mine equity priced in AUD is down >60%


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like profit taking day - good while it lasted.

Although the bizarro financial markets are getting more bipolar every day, which should be good for gold?

Oil down 5% while the Dow get's ramped defending 16k, again. There goes that correlation? An invisible hand to guide the way... free & fair markets? Perhaps Janet & Co have it under control.....hardly. How old is she anyway - shouldn't she be in a home for the insane by now, along with Greenspan & Bernanke. “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”, or in their case getting the same results (bubbles) but not fixing the problem?

Flight to the 'safety' of the Yen out of USD's? etc etc More to do with the policy error of the Fed - zero chance of any more rate rises, reversion to another round of QE soon as the recession takes hold.....

Global nirp should be the final straw that breaks the collective backs of the dumb ass Keynesian's once and for all!
Should be good for gold, even if priced in fiat?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Hey Comex, adios muchachos!


----------



## gartley

This rally unlike earlier attempts looks like the "real deal". It's impulsive looking and has got legs


----------



## notting

January retail sales rose 0.2% vs 0.1% increase expected Well f**& me.
US$ rallies against pretty much everything.   The consumer is alive!
Sell your gold and put the raising back on the cards Janet- not.

.1 
China's back at the table on Monday:microwave


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Hey kiddies, looks like all is swell again in global equities, what with 'the saviors' doing more 'whatever it takes' after more 'success' with previous efforts to crash the global economy. 

Looks like a wedgy thingy in gold so perhaps a breather from 'risk' (after the justified? short covering of the last 3 day's on little more than rhetoric & rumor) and rotation back to 'safety' due soon, again? Or, a continuation of the Fed's handypersons monkey hammering? That last burst would have concerned them a bit?

Who's the joke on this time?




Some positives 
- NIRP going global with a race to the bottom in the currency wars
- moves to ban cash gaining momentum
they are getting desperate now


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Breakout into resistance? 




Hammers not having much long lasting effect these days. Haven't seen the phantom dumper for a while....do your best.


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hammers not having much long lasting effect these days. Haven't seen the phantom dumper for a while....do your best.




Having trouble with his unravelling mask Uncle.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some correlations 

- Yen to Gold




- Fed Balance to SP500 (need to burn those peaky $100 'bills' to stoke the boiler perhaps?)






> Derived from a contract to be traded on the state-run Shanghai Gold Exchange,the Chinese benchmark is set to launch in April, potentially denting the relevance of the current global standard, the U.S. dollar-denominated London price.







And a final note from the biggest hammer.....who say's _their_ existence is "justified"?



> New York City, USA – Goldman Sachs the world’s largest investment bank forecast Gold at $1000 per ounce by the end of 2016. In a note to its clients Goldman advice to use the recent impressive rally, which isn’t “justified” and bet against the bullion’s rally.
> 
> According to Goldman Sachs analysis the catalyst behind the sharp rise in Gold price is the “systematic risk, particularly in the banking sector” and subsequently concerns over China and Oil, which according to Goldman’s view these fears are not justified.


----------



## WRONG'UN

I seem to recall Goldman Sachs saying oil was going to $200/bl?


----------



## John159

WRONG'UN said:


> I seem to recall Goldman Sachs saying oil was going to $200/bl?




As I recall, they did say the gold is going for 200$ couple of months ago, but they also set some mid range target prices which haven't been met yet. I will try to find a reference for this.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

An interesting 2 weeks coming up - gold could either continue the break out of this latest wedge or prove GS right? The fact that price hasn't broken down immediately as in past surges is bullish, so if it does break then clear air to mid $1500's? The counter is that equities are on a tear (for some unknown reason??) so could align with the old sell in May & go away cycle ie gold tanks while risk on till April/May then all bets are off as it does a Buzz Lightyear??


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ascending triangle for continuation, resistance $1250

Trigger? NFP might disappoint big time?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Make or break tonight for gold with the NFP, even though the NFP is one of those deeply flawed set of data. 

And it might just 'disappoint' in a big way, if it reflects the more accurate tax withholdings data - 



> As TrimTabs CEO David Santschi notes, BLS reports "tend to be highly inaccurate, and that the jobs situation generally has been far worse than the BLS has been reporting. In fact, TrimTabs estimates job growth in February was 55,000 to 85,000 - call it 70,000 - the lowest number in two years."




Just hit the previous $1260 high, through the top of triangle....or not?

Good opportunity for the hammers to completely break the technicals here, or they get hammered themselves?

Big moves for everything coming up.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like a fail on the magic NFP.

Gold not believing the figures, hitting $1281.

BlackRock Inc. on Friday said it has suspended the issuance of new shares in the roughly $8 billion iShares Gold Trust, citing a surge in demand for gold.

Tried to withdraw $100 notes from 2 bank's yesterday - all gone! Have to start hoarding $50's 

Aussie dollar spoils the party.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Big moves for everything coming up.




Oil down from $100 to $25. Fiat extinction event #1.....

Iron ore up 20%??? Pure specs, no hard orders. Fiat extinction event #2.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Super Mario's NIRP bazooka.

Is that the sound of Euro's being converted to gold.........


----------



## notting

It was very clever.
What he did was fire off a big shot and then walk away saying that's it no more.
What that does is stop speculation and lower expectations stupid expectations for more after he just fired off a big one.
Spoilt children piss off, so to speak.
It also means that if he came back and did more it would really smash things in the direction he wants, if required.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Dunno about Drahgi, these clowns have a habit of saying one thing and then doing the exact opposite eg Kuroda with his NIRP comments.

As for gold, this little trip has ended, next target $1170 or so by April, see how far the spec unwind will sell off? The commercials were right, again.


----------



## newanimal

Having just entered a gold miner co. on what appeared to be good technical green light, then watch the sudden sell-off due to POG price smashing, I wanted to know more regarding price manipulation and found this article enlightening. Dated 2013 but no doubt same game.    yes... no??                                      offhttp://www.silverseek.com/commentary/price-smash-%E2%80%93-who-what-how-and-why-10991


----------



## newanimal

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/price-smash-–-who-what-how-and-why-10991

hmmmm, can't seem to correctly post the link


----------



## explod

newanimal said:


> Having just entered a gold miner co. on what appeared to be good technical green light, then watch the sudden sell-off due to POG price smashing, I wanted to know more regarding price manipulation and found this article enlightening. Dated 2013 but no doubt same game.    yes... no??                                      offhttp://www.silverseek.com/commentary/price-smash-%E2%80%93-who-what-how-and-why-10991




I'd hang in there.   The paper to physical gold ratio has hit a point of late that cannot last much longer.   However one must not underestimate the paper money printers. 

A good site on the subject is (GATA)  Gold Anti Trust Action committee.  Kingworld News also but with vested interests can be a bit over the top.   But in all they provide some ballance over Main Street Media bankster views.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bizarre melt up.

Bankers will burn in hell.

Anglo/American V Russia/China gold.

The End.

Good Luck.

Good Bye.


----------



## Junior

Uncle Festivus said:


> Bizarre melt up.
> 
> Bankers will burn in hell.
> 
> Anglo/American V Russia/China gold.
> 
> The End.
> 
> Good Luck.
> 
> Good Bye.




Nice run-up in Silver this month.  Anyone following this market closely and willing to post up some analysis?

Best way to get exposure via ASX?  ETPMAG?


----------



## qldfrog

Junior said:


> Nice run-up in Silver this month.  Anyone following this market closely and willing to post up some analysis?
> 
> Best way to get exposure via ASX?  ETPMAG?




ETPMAG is my instrument and nice profit yesterday,I sold as i felt it will not carry on that strong much further; usually silver does not stay as stable/increase with market going down and may is soon here so my decision...
i gave up using silver miners  and only use ETPMAG lately


----------



## notting

Given every one seems to be now buying the Asia is OK story and things are stabilizing Gold has to be the short of the moment


----------



## MacDizzle

Here's a good article on the traditional correlation to the price of commodities in general. Perhaps good for keeping a balanced perspective outside of prices going to the moon and end of the world predictions

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Given every one seems to be now buying the Asia is OK story and things are stabilizing Gold has to be the short of the moment




Gold and other precious metals are more at the mercy of the dollar at the moment I reckon


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Gold and other precious metals are more at the mercy of the dollar at the moment I reckon




Yeah for sure.  If the US$ starts to appreciate look out.
However on the positive side, Buffet has always said gold is about as valuable as a yellow rock.  But the other night he said if borrowing rates go negative and it costs money to keep it in the bank, then keep it under the mattress!
That is martian speak for, "Fricken buy gold." There are no signs of central banks pecking at things with hooked beaks yet!! That's for sure.
All eyes on Japan and the US$
Remembering also to watch what China does with the Yuan as soon as the US$ starts to appreciate.  China has enjoyed the ride down on the US$ but they will not be so co operative on the way up, I assure you!


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Yeah for sure.  If the US$ starts to appreciate look out.
> However on the positive side, Buffet has always said gold is about as valuable as a yellow rock.  But the other night he said if borrowing rates go negative and it costs money to keep it in the bank, then keep it under the mattress!
> That is martian speak for, "Fricken buy gold." There are no signs of central banks pecking at things with hooked beaks yet!! That's for sure.
> All eyes on Japan and the US$
> Remembering also to watch what China does with the Yuan as soon as the US$ starts to appreciate.  China has enjoyed the ride down on the US$ but they will not be so co operative on the way up, I assure you!




China is going to start a gold exchange apparently, so there maybe a daily fix. If this occurs and its subject to the usual over exuberance, there maybe some arb opps....


----------



## daytradeprofit

from the technical side  on the gold rate  price  :If we will look on the charts we can see support at 1224-1232+_, gold rate should keep above those level to confirm more upside, fall through could take it to the next support level of 1180-1190 . Gold rate also is expected to find its first resistance at 1262, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1286-1298, For my opinion we probably see the gold rate at least 1224-1232 area for test, if not low level such as 1180-1190
From quick look on the COT table we can see: swap dealer Short positions increased while Managed Money long positions increased so we need to see who has the upper hand or who will break first, on the last round that occurs (same behaving COT position) we saw the Managed Money loose, well let's see what will be the result this time, my bet is on lower side – see more deeps in the gold rate, the positive view for the gold rate is that  gold open interest rose to more than 500,000K contracts – we didn’t saw such amount of that since 2011


----------



## Porper

The rejection from 1300 has dented the bulls confidence but looking at the Gold sub sector (XGD) there isn't too much to worry about, albeit lower prices are expected.

Two charts; the first is the daily which shows that the recent high should complete wave-3 meaning a rotation down to the target area is feasible. If the wave-3 high is taken out immediately then I am wrong and something much more bullish is taking place.

The second chart is the weekly which shows the strong break out of the Basing Pattern. The upper target should be attained as a minimum but let's see if short term weakness takes us lower first.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Gold Australia equivalent is $1733. Fairly attractive.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Looks like 1300 USD has some IED's on it. Turned back at 1307 back in Jan. 2015 and 1303 in Jan. 2016. My bias a break above 1300.


----------



## Telamelo

Wysiwyg said:


> Looks like 1300 USD has some IED's on it. Turned back at 1307 back in Jan. 2015 and 1303 in Jan. 2016. My bias a break above 1300.




http://www.commoditytrademantra.com...most-important-to-confirm-a-gold-bull-market/


----------



## explod

Brexit is on. 

Aussie gold up 10% today. 

BBC economists warning that people may not be able to withdraw cash from thier banks.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

Yeah top job people of Britain, well done


----------



## Goldy

explod said:


> BBC economists warning that people may not be able to withdraw cash from thier banks.




I guess it's always better to have your money in cash..


----------



## Porper

Goldy said:


> I guess it's always better to have your money in cash..




Never heard such crap in all my life.  Nothing will change apart from fear...which will soon dissipate.


----------



## CanOz

Hmm, GC has met its pattern target at 1356. We could test the Brexit high, which seems reasonable. After that, if we remain well bid then 1400 is the next target.


----------



## explod

Porper said:


> Never heard such crap in all my life.  Nothing will change apart from fear...which will soon dissipate.




Paper money is being printed out of thin air without productive backing.   Check webpage of Austrian Economics. 

Check the Weimer Republic's demise and Argentina.   Many others hitting this wall now. 

Money is losing value but its demise being hidden by crap figures. Just one example,  US unemployment said to be 5% but not counted are those seeking work more than 12 months.   Included as full time jobs are just a few hours part time. It is said a person holding 3 part time jobs are counted as 3 full time jobs.   Real unemployment there is said to exceed 20% and they have 50 million on food stamps.  

Real fear among banks and big players is driving the prescious metals stampede now and in my view it is just the beginning of the run. Well worth a bit of googling.  But JMHO,  we'll see.


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> Real fear among banks and big players is driving the prescious metals stampede now and in my view it is just the beginning of the run. Well worth a bit of googling.  But JMHO,  we'll see.




Oh crap Explod, every-time gold has a run you come out with this, i could almost set my watch to it...I tend to think gold on the bid does = one of three things:

1.) anticipation of a weak dollar, the DX usually correlates, Bonds correlate
2.) fear, the safety trade, Bonds correlate, equities tank, Vix rises
3.) Inflation from dovish monetary policy - Bonds correlate, equities correlate, vix drops

Which is it this time Explod?


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Oh crap Explod, every-time gold has a run you come out with this, i could almost set my watch to it...I tend to think gold on the bid does = one of three things:
> 
> 1.) anticipation of a weak dollar, the DX usually correlates, Bonds correlate
> 2.) fear, the safety trade, Bonds correlate, equities tank, Vix rises
> 3.) Inflation from dovish monetary policy - Bonds correlate, equities correlate, vix drops
> 
> Which is it this time Explod?




Almost no yield in bonds,  no interest for money in the bank.   Big companies including banks have fallen big numbers to the detriment of super funds.  Deutcher in strife last week and on the edge,  and many being propped by government stimulus (money printing) one of the majors when it cracks will set off a domino tumble soon IMHO. 

Physical in the hand for this kid.  Anyway I realise most of you are much wiser than I.   This is just my innocent 10cents


----------



## explod

Further to the above discussion the following quote of Egon von Greyerz overnight on King World News expands my point of view:-



> It is not just central banks that print money.   Commercial banks print many times more by leveraging their ballance sheets up to 50 times, such as Deutsche bank.   If you include derivatives,  this leverage is exponentially greater for all banks.   This money printing has totally destroyed the value of paper money in the last 100 years...  Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -  Zero.


----------



## CanOz

Yup, by the look of the GC price, all hopes for more QE have evaporated...risk off again


----------



## notting

Gold looking a tad overdone me thinking

NCM   26.05
NST   5.64
EVN   2.90
SBM  3.605
RRL   3.84

Time to get shorty


----------



## qldfrog

on a longer term, ad=fter trying to suppress physical money by reducing bill note size, starting to asociate cash with crime, Gold may be the next one on the list:
do I read behind the lines?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/gold-fraud-550m-tax-scam-hits-gold-industry-20160707-gq0s5f.html


----------



## Wysiwyg

What is wrong with profiting that way? Making more than what it was bought for. I suppose the next we hear is a GST on bullion sales. That would stop the business in its tracks.


----------



## qldfrog

Wysiwyg said:


> What is wrong with profiting that way?



I do believe the illegal part is that the individuals do not pay back the GST and disappear keeping the 10% gain instead of sending it back as part of the BAS?
and apologies for the typos/spelling errors in my above post


----------



## Goldy

keeps raising and raising... 1,341.83 today :frown:


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Almost no yield in bonds,  no interest for money in the bank.   Big companies including banks have fallen big numbers to the detriment of super funds.  Deutcher in strife last week and on the edge,  and many being propped by government stimulus (money printing) one of the majors when it cracks will set off a domino tumble soon IMHO.
> 
> Physical in the hand for this kid.  Anyway I realise most of you are much wiser than I.   This is just my innocent 10cents




I know the gold bugs thrive on fear, but take a step back and look at the economy, its doing pretty good, there are plenty of businesses on the asx generating millions or billions of dollars in free cash flow each year, and paying a certain amount of this out to share holders, these companies are not only reinvesting to continue to grow their own businesses, but share holders get to spend or reinvest their dividends.

I think holding a baskets of good companies in this economy is going to perform better than your gold bars.

I mean the gold price has gone no where in five years, and not a single dividend paid or interest received.

Even if you held cash over that time, you would have been better off, at least you would have gotten a little interest. Mean while the ASX200 paid over 20% in dividends and is up about 50% in capital value.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> .
> 
> Money is losing value but its demise being hidden by crap figures..




Well you can by about the same amount of gold with $1 today as you could buy 5 years with the same $1. So it hasn't lost that much value compared to gold. but if you had the dollar stored in ASX200, you would have a lot more than $1 now and could buy a lot more gold today.

Most people fear the US dollar the most, they though QE would destroy its value, yet you can buy even more gold today with a US $1 than you could 5 years ago.


----------



## Klogg

explod said:


> Paper money is being printed out of thin air without productive backing.   Check webpage of Austrian Economics.
> 
> Check the Weimer Republic's demise and Argentina.   Many others hitting this wall now.
> 
> Money is losing value but its demise being hidden by crap figures. Just one example,  US unemployment said to be 5% but not counted are those seeking work more than 12 months.   Included as full time jobs are just a few hours part time. It is said a person holding 3 part time jobs are counted as 3 full time jobs.   Real unemployment there is said to exceed 20% and they have 50 million on food stamps.
> 
> Real fear among banks and big players is driving the prescious metals stampede now and in my view it is just the beginning of the run. Well worth a bit of googling.  But JMHO,  we'll see.




Wow, fear based on reserve banks printing a few dollars...

If you look at the Weimar Republic as an example, they were printing to pay off war debts and as a result caused massive inflation. From Wikipedia:
"Beginning in August 1921, Germany began to buy foreign currency with marks at any price, but that only increased the speed of breakdown in the value of the mark. The lower the mark sank in international markets, the greater the amount of marks was required to buy the foreign currency demanded by the Reparations Commission"

In the more current case, the reserve bank is printing to stop deflation (or to hit a target inflation rate of about 2%). Their end goal is a specific inflation rate, rather than it being a byproduct of anything else. So long as inflation does not get out of control, then there's no real problem.
There's the theoretical problem of the Fed potentially becoming 'insolvent' (Liabilities > Assets), but so long as liquidity remains (they can print money to pay) then the system still works.


Ray Dalio has a great publication (here) detailing this.  Surprisingly, it's given me a decent model to work from.


----------



## Valued

I wouldn't be too worried. Australian economy is doing fine. There are issues of course. US economy is OK...  industrial production which is an issue (when you're celebrating industrial production not dropping as much this month, cause for concern re growth), capacity utilization is on the low side and non-farm payroll had a really  terrible month In May but June and July have been good. The difficulty the fed will run into is balancing some questionable growth statistics with not wanting to have really high inflation. 

Oil seems like a big factor right now... if we see an oil bull market we are going to be in interesting times. US core inflation is 2.3% so a rise in the price of oil would really heat up US inflation.


----------



## sr20de

Harry Dent and Peter Schiff Debate on Alex Jones Show

They both a very well respected sources of information.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC5ZigWJLLE

http://harrydent.com/
http://schiffgold.com/news/

I won't mention infowars.com because I have been pushing the MOD and I think he is holding me over the hidden trap door.


----------



## explod

Well,  whats in a few days,  BHP's profits down with a loss this last year of 8 billion and oil and gas holdings written down by 10 billion. 

Gold holding its place and where to now,  with a drop of 100%in ion ore prices over the last year or so and coal growingly on the nose then its a vacuum forming here. 

And this has been translating into a lot if young fellows out of a job and returning home.   The volume of those living rough in their cars and on the street has been growing by the day.   Has not really hit main street media yet but it is on the way. 

Banks getting streetched,  milking cows off to slaughter.  And just announced,  Alan Kohler on ABC says another rate cut coming,  so no money in money. 

Gold for me and on the up today.  My dear little MOY up 24% today so hada coupla whiskeys.   Except that as things are going there is absolutely nothing to laugh about.   My two Son's in business are feeling it.


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> Well,  whats in a few days,  BHP's profits down with a loss this last year of 8 billion and oil and gas holdings written down by 10 billion.
> 
> Gold holding its place and where to now,  with a drop of 100%in ion ore prices over the last year or so and coal growingly on the nose then its a vacuum forming here.
> 
> And this has been translating into a lot if young fellows out of a job and returning home.   The volume of those living rough in their cars and on the street has been growing by the day.   Has not really hit main street media yet but it is on the way.
> 
> Banks getting streetched,  milking cows off to slaughter.  And just announced,  Alan Kohler on ABC says another rate cut coming,  so no money in money.
> 
> Gold for me and on the up today.  My dear little MOY up 24% today so hada coupla whiskeys.   Except that as things are going there is absolutely nothing to laugh about.   My two Son's in business are feeling it.





Quick, run for the hills!

I wouldn't be surprised if BHP rallies...


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Quick, run for the hills!
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised if BHP rallies...




Maybe,  but I prefer to know or understand why.


----------



## Value Collector

explod said:


> Well,  whats in a few days,  BHP's profits down with a loss this last year of 8 billion and oil and gas holdings written down by 10 billion.
> 
> .




BHP generally earns a profit and pays a dividend, gold never has earnings and never pays a dividend.

the asx 200 companies will generate earnings and pay dividends each, the earning will fluctuate, but compared to gold that never pays a dividend, the bumpy earnings figures of leading companies is great.


----------



## Kryzz

Hasn't been the greatest month for Gold, at a pretty key level atm, hopefully it picks up.


----------



## kid hustlr

Yes,

Interested in peoples thoughts here.

GDX and NCM and miners in general have been creamed in the past month - is this a chance to dip the toe into some companies who are leveraged to the POG?


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Gold looking a tad overdone me thinking
> 
> NCM   26.05
> NST   5.64
> EVN   2.90
> SBM  3.605
> RRL   3.84
> 
> Time to get shorty
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=912743&viewfull=1#post912743




And counting...
(It's going to get worse)


----------



## peter2

Noted your contrarian call on gold but thought it a little prem. However there was a lower high in most of those charts in early Aug that I didn't notice at the time. It just highlights that I'm a natural bull while you're just a natural contrarian. 

Where at the EOM and it'll be interesting to see what's happened to explod's gold portfolio in the 2016 tipping comp.


----------



## kid hustlr

Any Elliot Wave guys out there looking at this?

Thinking i might buy a little XGD and a little NCM for the bottom drawer


----------



## gartley

kid hustlr said:


> Any Elliot Wave guys out there looking at this?
> 
> Thinking i might buy a little XGD and a little NCM for the bottom drawer




EW is not my strength, but my own cycles methodology saw this coming weeks ago)) the same way it did the current All Ords correction 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...17461&page=117&p=915905&viewfull=1#post915905

#2339

















View attachment 67953


----------



## gartley

Just an addition to the previous post. Those charts are for NCM which probably is the largest weighting of the XGD Index.

The weekly and monthly cycles for Physical Gold point to higher prices after this correction completes well over 1400. So for now it's either a matter of riding out this correction in the Gold miners (as painful as it is for those who own them), or having exited longs and waiting for the next buy signal)).  I suspect current decline has a seasonal component to it and hopefully will be over by November and a fresh buy spike and cycle bottom signals emerge


----------



## kid hustlr

Cool gartley.

Just make sense to have a small portion in my portfolio in my view and GDX and NCM appear the best way to do it


----------



## gartley

kid hustlr said:


> Cool gartley.
> 
> Just make sense to have a small portion in my portfolio in my view and GDX and NCM appear the best way to do it




Makes sense, I bought GDX, NCM, NST, OGC, AQG, TRY, GRY and ETPMAG last December, but have since liquidated because I don't like to hold them while they are falling, that's just me.  Seasonally I have found the best time to buy them has been between December and January the last 2 or 3 years.


----------



## Kryzz

Kryzz said:


> Hasn't been the greatest month for Gold, at a pretty key level atm, hopefully it picks up.




Looks like that support zone is holding for now following the NFP announcement, fingers crossed for some follow through!


----------



## notting

flipping out of gold shorts given they ran down on a hike expectation, which is now dubious yet largely priced in.


----------



## notting

Machines all keeping up.

Got my attention

1 minute gold chart and NCM (simply because it's the biggest and looked at by internationals and fundies)


----------



## explod

notting said:


> flipping out of gold shorts given they ran down on a hike expectation, which is now dubious yet largely priced in.




The paper gold price will not be allowed to rise as investors leave the markets,  and as Wall Street falls so will gold in my sceptical view. 

The financial banking systems are in control and the last thing they will allow is any alternative to holdings outside of thier paper system. 

I expect a shake out to below $1,300 in the next week or so before the next move north.  Its about painting sentiment and nothing  to do with productive value IMHO.


----------



## notting

Well I'v been short for a while now and was expecting a hike next week.
However, when the last fed chick came out and basically said we're prepping you but we don't think it will be this month.
That was enough for me to back off.
If they do hike, and they should, gold will sell off.


----------



## explod

Agree but do not believe they can raise rates.   The system is loaded with just too much debt and any rise will see defaults and a systemic implosion.  However with ever decreasing yields gold will continue the rise established early this year but it will be volatile which shakes off weak hands and keeps doubt in play.


----------



## qldfrog

explod said:


> Agree but do not believe they can raise rates.   The system is loaded with just too much debt and any rise will see defaults and a systemic implosion.  However with ever decreasing yields gold will continue the rise established early this year but it will be volatile which shakes off weak hands and keeps doubt in play.




At least a point we will agree on today explod;
I see no risk in loading on gold in the medium term, up and down along the way but trend is up


----------



## notting

So now it's the election, if Trump looks like winning at any point that would be good for gold you would think amidst market and global chaos!


----------



## explod

Just watching ABC business news and they report gold down US$3 when in fact we know it rose more than $10.

Interesting that they only quote the US gold price and yet they do quote the Aussie dollar so why not the Aussie gold price.

Its clear the financial world hates gold but with Aussie gold miners doing so well this year it seems very unfair to Mum and Dad investors that our national broadcaster does not inform properly.


----------



## notting

explod said:


> Just watching ABC business news and they report gold down US$3 when in fact we know it rose more than $10.




You have to watch the live charts for gold and commods.
None of the news outlets are on the ball with it, it moves around too fast for them.
Most finished well off their highs today which aint that bullish.
It should have been and was largely priced in even though most have corrected fairly strongly.
Perhaps their already using the run up to offload for December.
Let's see.


----------



## explod

notting said:


> You have to watch the live charts for gold and commods.
> None of the news outlets are on the ball with it, it moves around too fast for them.
> Most finished well off their highs today which aint that bullish.
> It should have been and was largely priced in even though most have corrected fairly strongly.
> Perhaps their already using the run up to offload for December.
> Let's see.




Agree and thank you. 

I have been into gold and silver for fifteen years and have a fair knowledge. 

I question that its not made clear on main street media and I do not think it is any accident.


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> Agree and thank you.
> 
> I have been into gold and silver for fifteen years and have a fair knowledge.
> 
> I question that its not made clear on main street media and I do not think it is any accident.





Who cares what else gold is priced in except what the major contracts trade on? Gold and most major commodities are priced in USD. The USD is taking a bit of beating today so expect commodities to do well, including GC.


----------



## notting

The fed did everything that was expected so gold should not have reacted so positivly yesterday and the BOJ did not touch interest rates but just went for assets.  That's hardly a bullish change that deserved a gold run up. (no 'more' negative interest rates making gold worth holding)
It was simply a muppet led relief rally, sold into by pros, which is following through today.
Most goldies down around 3%
Positives - Trump is on the cards and if the fed starts to errrrrr about December then that would be a big Moooooooo for gold.


----------



## Porper

notting said:


> It was simply a muppet led relief rally, sold into by pros, which is following through today.
> Most goldies down around 3%




Well this muppet entered AQG yesterday so let's see how it goes.


----------



## Ann

Ahh dear I feel like I am about to get another flogging like the one I got back in March 2013 when I called an end to gold as it was about to fall below the support line of the rising megaphone shape on the quarterly chart.

I am now about to call an end to gold second phase, with the same quarterly chart I have been drawing for many, many years. It has been struggling to break above the resistance line of the current megaphone pattern in which it has been traveling over the last 13 quarters and now looks quite weak as it curves back from resistance. 

I am expecting it to progress downwards over the next few months and then spill out of the megaphone shape on its way down.

I am also going to put up a second chart, a 15 year view of the daily chart with a swing trade calculation of a potential price outcome of US$200 if it falls below support out of its bearish descending triangle.

I know this is all going to be upsetting and sound ridiculous for the true believers so bash and abuse me if you wish, I do understand your pain and I would be just as happy calling it in the opposite direction if I could see that on the charts.


----------



## Porper

Ann said:


> I am also going to put up a second chart, a 15 year view of the daily chart with a swing trade calculation of a potential price outcome of US$200 if it falls below support out of its bearish descending triangle.




It isn't a bearish triangle. There is only 1 swing and it's terminated two thirds of the way through, which is usually the breakout area. it has no relevance as a pattern i.m.o.


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> Ahh dear I feel like I am about to get another flogging like the one I got back in March 2013




I suspect you are right Ann ... about the flogging I mean:

Just for the fun of it .... I'm happy to have a small wager that the POG will hit $1400 before it hits $1200 ... Loser donates $50 to Joe.  PS If it does hit $1200 ... $50 is all I will be able to afford  Cheers.


----------



## explod

If one were to draw a line along the bottom points of you last chart Anne, you can see the long term steady rise of gold that I like.  And is why I gradually accumulate bullion in the hand.

Gold for me is a hedge against currency devaluation and is hoarded as a percentage of portfolios for that purpose primarily.

It is also seen as a political canary in the cage and therefore controlled (in my view) in order to ensure confidence in financial markets.

Almost every Monday morning without fail the gold price falls considerably, which is a time when there are few traders.  It would not surprise if it did drop to US1300 or below tomorrow.  However as the real financial horror of Deutcher Bank is further revealed by Tuesday (a holiday over there tomorrow) we may see gold rise again considerably.

I do take my hat off to those trying to chart gold short term, but for me financial fundamentals (including my take on manipulation) is the only real guide IMHO.


----------



## Ann

Porper said:


> It isn't a bearish triangle.




With respect Porper, a descending triangle is a continuation pattern, a continuation of a downward price is regarded as being bearish by common definition. This is not to say that all descending triangles will resolve as bearish.




barney said:


> I suspect you are right Ann ... about the flogging I mean:




G'day Barney! I can handle it!  Starting back in 2005, I used to be on the really early un-moderated old wild west forum which was Kitco, a really awesome place of amazing information and hilarious people, before it was modernized, sanitized and repackaged as a gold pumping station for Kitco! Also I had the pleasure of spending a lot of time on Goldismoney, lovely people, lovely forum. Learned a lot in both those places over the years. So I have a lot of first hand knowledge of the mind of goldbugs, spending so much time talking to them over the years. 



explod said:


> Almost every Monday morning without fail the gold price falls considerably, which is a time when there are few traders.
> 
> I do take my hat off to those trying to chart gold short term, but for me financial fundamentals (including my take on manipulation) is the only real guide IMHO.




G'day Explod, please forgive me editing your comments, it is not meant to be a reflection on the content by any means! 

I think this Monday will not be an exception to what you have said about a falling price. I have put up the five minute chart for the last trading day for gold and there are a couple of overheads it needs to push through at the start of the next trading.

I prefer charting to fundamentals. Fundamentals always feel like manipulation, propaganda and old news whereas charts are a trail of exactly what has been going on without the noise up to the last trading moment. If I can follow the trail well enough and look at what is really going on without firing up my imagination with conspiracy theories then I can look at it all dispassionately without any particular bias other than the impression the chart is giving me.

The second chart is a two month chart showing a couple of indicators and how the price has been traveling each day and where it might be in the next two or three days, enjoy!

PS. A note about the bottom chart. Momentum went into the holding position on 6th September when MACD did its first cross above below 0 on the 6th of September. (Just saying!


----------



## Porper

Ann said:


> With respect Porper, a descending triangle is a continuation pattern, a continuation of a downward price is regarded as being bearish by common definition. This is not to say that all descending triangles will resolve as bearish.




You misunderstood. It isn't a triangle. You only have 1 swing in it. Take a look at Bulkowski's chart pattern site, he is very good at defining most patterns.


----------



## tech/a

Porper said:


> You misunderstood. It isn't a triangle. You only have 1 swing in it. Take a look at Bulkowski's chart pattern site, he is very good at defining most patterns.




Charting is in the eye of the author.
Which is certainly the case with the analysis presented here.

Selective definition.Unfortunately this is detrimental to serious 
Analysis ----- disappointing.

Short term the downtrend has stalled.
As economies stabilize so money moves away from gold.

See what the US elections bring!


----------



## Quant

If you looking at Gold medium term all i can suggest is chart AUDUSD as they are siamese twins , joined at the hip . i think there are decent reasons to get bullish AUD longer term ...


----------



## Ina amran

Gold should be on the downside going forward
It should eventually test $1260 level per ounce
With the US having an election year and positive sentiments in the US market, the Dollar should be on the high side and FED towards the end of the year hopefully increasing their interest rates, will definitely impact gold.

Wait and watch gold carefully and see it fall to $1260 -70 levels to begin with.


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> G'day Barney! I can handle it!  Starting back in 2005, I used to be on the really early un-moderated old wild west forum which was Kitco, a really awesome place of amazing information and hilarious people, before it was modernized, sanitized and repackaged as a gold pumping station for Kitco! Also I had the pleasure of spending a lot of time on Goldismoney, lovely people, lovely forum. Learned a lot in both those places over the years. So I have a lot of first hand knowledge of the mind of goldbugs, spending so much time talking to them over the years.





The way Gold is behaving tonight I may to stump up that $50 a lot quicker than I expected


----------



## notting

Porper said:


> Well this muppet entered AQG yesterday so let's see how it goes.







A little green at breakfast one suspects, but a lot of green on screen for shorts positions however.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

notting said:


> A little green at breakfast one suspects, but a lot of green on screen for shorts positions however.




I think gold and silver set to bounce up into next week.

I like a good kermit tea-sipping meme.  Seen them?


----------



## Porper

notting said:


> View attachment 68335
> 
> 
> A little green at breakfast one suspects





Only if you hold and hope... Losers all part of the process (50.0%) presently.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Ann said:


> I am expecting it to progress downwards over the next few months and then spill out of the megaphone shape on its way down.



Hey there. Nice shooting. Since POG has changed daily trend, do you think 1307 - 1310 will be resistance for any reversal after this support break? It looks like a reversal on the daily of yesterdays definitive support break.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> It looks like a reversal on the daily of yesterdays definitive support break.



It looks no more. Time for some fast profits.


----------



## notting

Taking profits on gold shorts.   US gold at 1256
Inflation not exactly out of the bag just yet.
Draghi is backing down from taper talk and the Pound got a fat finger this morning so Brexit may start to get real with respect to uncertainty and the British financial system health and so forth 
There's gotta be some demand for gold still given how much cash there is in general and nothing safe is gonna be paying much for a while, still, it seems.


----------



## Ann

Porper said:


> You misunderstood. It isn't a triangle. You only have 1 swing in it. Take a look at Bulkowski's chart pattern site, he is very good at defining most patterns.




Ahh, I see your problem Porper, you are trying to fit a seven year EOD chart into three month OHLC chart, doesn't go! 

OK, for those not familiar with Bulkowski he wrote a computer program which analyzed the percentages of which direction a specific chart shape would resolve within the parameters of up to a three month period. He trades within a two to three month time frame using OHLC bars (open-high-low-close) which takes in all the trading information of that day or week. This makes  for a very 'noisy' chart with a lot of information to cloud the actual direction of a chart. As it is only over a very short time frame up to three months there is plenty of room for stops to be enacted and profits quickly taken. This 'fills' a chart with lots of swings.  

Bulkowski's book is an interesting read and as with most books on charting it has something to offer. It also looks impressive on my bookshelf along side the other large tomes of charting such as 'The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators' by Colby and Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets". Not forgetting Stan Weinstein's 'Bull and Bear'....and the other dozens! Enough name dropping, you are probably getting the idea that I don't just rely on web sites for my information! 

I have put up two charts one of them in the Bulkowski style with OHLC bars. This is a weekly chart over a three month period. I find it hard to read any real direction in it and without the last bar or any other indicators, I would be hard pressed to suggest its eventual outcome before it broke below support. However take note of the three touches on the upper falling trendline and the two touches on the bottom support.

Now the second chart is a daily chart over six and a half years with a closed EOD line. This has nowhere near the noise or swings and therefore the path/direction is far easier to follow. This is one reason I prefer long term charts. (There is no litter all over the path!  ) Notice how the long term chart also displays three touches on the falling trendline and two touches on the bottom support.

These touches are the vital aspect of creating the shape of a chart which then can give you a good indication of where something is traveling. Long term charts have a massive impact on short term trading with potentially unseen overheads slamming the short term trader.


----------



## Ann

If I was going to buy a gold stock, which I wouldn't, 'cos I don't buy miners, I think I would wait a little bit to see if gold bounces off this young rising trendline that I drew by resting the start point on an untested price level back in February this year. 

I believe if this rising support trendline fails there may well be a rapid fall to perhaps 1200? If it doesn't fall through support there could be a ride back up again to give the very long term falling resistance another bang with its head to see if it can break through.

One of the indicators I watch is Money Flow, currently it is showing as really, really low, lots of money has left gold, so far very little money is coming back in. The big question in my mind is gold becoming exhausted from its massive recent efforts to break above the long term overhead falling resistance? 

Is it now a toy for the little boys in shorts or can the bugs still push it uphill? 

.....and the chart


----------



## Ann

When I read charts sometimes I can find something which tells me a 'secret' about what may be happening to a chart. Often looking at the daily or weekly chart can tell me a 'story'. When I looked at the daily XGD I was struck with the possibility it may actually be a cup and handle developing. Very tempting to draw it thus with its lovely rounding bottom. Before I commit to a particular line of thought I take a look at the longer term charts and often I find a little hidden secret.

The XGD was just such a situation. I can see a potential failure to the daily cup and handle shape as shown by the monthly 20 year chart. There appears to be an overhead trendline about to block any further upward moves of the gold stocks overall.

For anyone not familiar with the XGD it has twenty constituents which form this chart.

Alacer Gold Corp AQG
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd AGG
Beadell Resources Ltd BDR
Dacian Gold Ltd DCN
Doray Minerals Ltd DRM
Evolution Mining Ltd EVN
Gold Road Resources Ltd GOR
Metals X Ltd MLX
Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM
Newfield Resources Ltd NWF
Northern Star Resources Ltd NST
OceanaGold Corp OGC
Perseus Mining Ltd PRU
Ramelius Resources Ltd RMS
Regis Resources Ltd RRL
Resolute Mining Ltd RSG
Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd SAR
Silver Lake Resources Ltd SLR
St Barbara Ltd SBM
Tribune Resources Ltd TBR

...and the chart


----------



## Kryzz

Wysiwyg said:


> Hey there. Nice shooting. Since POG has changed daily trend, do you think 1307 - 1310 will be resistance for any reversal after this support break? It looks like a reversal on the daily of yesterdays definitive support break.




$1300 resistance holds for now


----------



## GoldHunt

I have no doubt Gold will soar to $5000 or higher in the next few years due to the one of the most important key factors: Confidence collapse in Governments as they mess up the economy more and more. Consequentially, unprecedented record amount of capitals will rush into buying gold and silver.

But, on short term Time frame (as expected - refers my last Blogs), Gold continues to weaken/ on correction due to 2 main reasons: 1.The fear of Rate hike 2. More time needed to complete the correction.

1300-1305 finally was broken and the current decline might bring gold down to 1180-1220 for the corrective low as flagged out 3 months ago. Could it drop below 1180 or to 1045 again or even lower? Nothing is impossible but is less likely based on the current price and time analysis. We will update regularly for the paid subscribers.

So, it is still not the time yet to fully invest in Gold and Silver if you believe that they still need more time to complete the correction based onTiming Cycle and Technical analysis. So when is the time to start buying aggressively? Find out from me!

See Charts below


----------



## Ann

barney said:


> I suspect you are right Ann ... about the flogging I mean:
> 
> Just for the fun of it .... I'm happy to have a small wager that the POG will hit $1400 before it hits $1200 ... Loser donates $50 to Joe.  PS If it does hit $1200 ... $50 is all I will be able to afford  Cheers.




Is Joe $50 richer yet? 

I guess you have all been expecting me back. Well, it is not good news for gold. 

On the first chart, I see a potential resistance level at $US1210 to any return to higher prices. The next major support level is $US1080.

Just to put Gold into perspective for Australians, using Aussie dollars I am putting up a second chart for the POG in $A

There is a rising support coming from November 2014. If this fails, I am seeing levels of support at $A1450. If this level fails, I am seeing support at around $A1300 to $A1330.


----------



## Miner

Ann said:


> Is Joe $50 richer yet?
> 
> I guess you have all been expecting me back. Well, it is not good news for gold.
> 
> On the first chart, I see a potential resistance level at $US1210 to any return to higher prices. The next major support level is $US1080.
> 
> Just to put Gold into perspective for Australians, using Aussie dollars I am putting up a second chart for the POG in $A
> 
> There is a rising support coming from November 2014. If this fails, I am seeing levels of support at $A1450. If this level fails, I am seeing support at around $A1300 to $A1330.




If I may add on this thread even if my investment on NST, REGIS, AND EVN are looking depressed, that we all know India and China are the two major buyers for Gold. India imports more gold than Australia produces 
The current Indian Prime Minister has recently done demoetisation which means he has cancelled currency notes of 500 and 1000. So what ?
The people with lots of black money trade on gold exchanging big currency notes.
The press report says that the god sale has reduced by 80% since demonetisation started.
Logic is simple. THe demand of gold will further reduces meaning Gold could reach $1100 in next 5 months time.


----------



## So_Cynical

Funny how lines on a chart can look, 10 year chart long term trend continuing, 10 year chart pretty much the start of the gold bull over the last decade, the tremendous debt from 10 years ago has probably doubled, the Great Recession continues in many parts of the world.

Interestingly i have started coin collecting this year, silver coins are my favorites and having no idea i always have a google of coins i come across that are of interest to me on ebay etc, up until the late 60's early 70's high silver content coins for general circulation were common, minted in the 10's of millions in all western country's and subsequently horded in the 10's of millions.

Thats where all that silver went, and a lot of the gold, horded, collected and now stacked.
~


----------



## Ann

Miner said:


> If I may add on this thread even if my investment on NST, REGIS, AND EVN are looking depressed, that we all know India and China are the two major buyers for Gold. India imports more gold than Australia produces
> The current Indian Prime Minister has recently done demoetisation which means he has cancelled currency notes of 500 and 1000. So what ?
> The people with lots of black money trade on gold exchanging big currency notes.
> The press report says that the god sale has reduced by 80% since demonetisation started.
> Logic is simple. THe demand of gold will further reduces meaning Gold could reach $1100 in next 5 months time.




Hi Miner, I don't worry about who buys what, I am purely a 100% chartist and leave the fundamentals to others. I watch the Kitco live gold chart for fun. (no wisecracks please folks!) I noticed out of the corner of my eye, a video the other day and I thought, geez that will cause havoc if it happens.



> India is facing a potential ban on gold imports, which could cause a potential, one-day $200 drop in gold prices, Peter Hug comments. Some analysts are saying that if it unfolds, it could be the biggest bombshell to the industry since 1971, when President Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. December Comex gold futures settled the trading session slightly higher at $1,211.20 an ounce, up 0.12% on the day.



http://www.kitco.com/news/video/sho...bshell--India-Faces-Potential-Gold-Import-Ban


----------



## Ann

So_Cynical said:


> Funny how lines on a chart can look, 10 year chart long term trend continuing, 10 year chart pretty much the start of the gold bull over the last decade, the tremendous debt from 10 years ago has probably doubled, the Great Recession continues in many parts of the world.
> 
> Interestingly i have started coin collecting this year, silver coins are my favorites and having no idea i always have a google of coins i come across that are of interest to me on ebay etc, up until the late 60's early 70's high silver content coins for general circulation were common, minted in the 10's of millions in all western country's and subsequently horded in the 10's of millions.
> 
> Thats where all that silver went, and a lot of the gold, horded, collected and now stacked.
> ~




G'day So Cynical,

Yes, I think I have a heap of very old Australian pre-decimal silver currency stashed somewhere myself. Lawd only know where it might be!

With those wee charts they have on Kitco, they are in Log scale and squished up small making them slightly distorted. Good for a quick overview, just hard to draw reliable lines on them. I have drawn a quick 10 year chart in Log for you, without the distortion of a minimized chart. You will see a bit of a different story, without the distortion.


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> Is Joe $50 richer yet?




LOL .... That'd be right ..... come back to accept the wager AFTER you've already won the wager ...... How come you didn't accept the wager when I first suggested it .... I bet you were scared I was going to win weren't you Miss Ann:

All good ... I will accept your gloating and have contacted Joe to sort out my punishment

All jokes aside, once Gold broke $1240 in such a vicious way I knew I was in trouble ... I agree with your downward target possibilities but if it works down to around $1070 over the next few months I think we will be in for one heck of a rally higher after that.

My major holding is still in Pantoro (PNR) at the moment and given its current performance with a falling Gold price I cant wait to see what its going to do when Gold moves up


----------



## Ann

Ann said:


> G'day So Cynical,
> 
> Yes, I think I have a heap of very old Australian pre-decimal silver currency stashed somewhere myself. Lawd only know where it might be!
> 
> With those wee charts they have on Kitco, they are in Log scale and squished up small making them slightly distorted. Good for a quick overview, just hard to draw reliable lines on them. I have drawn a quick 10 year chart in Log for you, without the distortion of a minimized chart. You will see a bit of a different story, without the distortion.




...and then I thought, stop banging on and let's do a double check and see what is happening on non log. Your 10 year support is just as the squished chart says, so just go away Ann and shut your mouth! I am not going to add a chart as I have lines in place and it will be just too many lines to be reasonable. However, if you take that same long term 10 trendline and lie it on a support level from 2005, instead of 2007, the support is now well out of play and acted as an overhead trend resistance line in July 2016. We shall see what we shall see!


----------



## explod

What we have on the 10 year chart is an upsloping head and shoulders almost complete.

A cleanout at around US$1100 would complete it and then would look bullish from there.  Maybe Trump's installation will be the trigger.


----------



## Ann

barney said:


> LOL .... That'd be right ..... come back to accept the wager AFTER you've already won the wager ...... How come you didn't accept the wager when I first suggested it .... I bet you were scared I was going to win weren't you Miss Ann:
> 
> All good ... I will accept your gloating and have contacted Joe to sort out my punishment
> 
> All jokes aside, once Gold broke $1240 in such a vicious way I knew I was in trouble ... I agree with your downward target possibilities but if it works down to around $1070 over the next few months I think we will be in for one heck of a rally higher after that.
> 
> My major holding is still in Pantoro (PNR) at the moment and given its current performance with a falling Gold price I cant wait to see what its going to do when Gold moves up




 The wager was always on, because I stood by what I said about the POG. I was calling another top, and got the normal bashing, of which we spoke, from the normal culprits. Well not all of them, I think a few thought better of it, this time around.
Not gloating though, I hate to see money being lost. And I have been right often enough with my charts, over the years, it is no novelty anymore, more, meh! There are going to be solid levels of resistance to a rise I am thinking, particularly if India's gold ban goes ahead. 

I am still going to be watching that local chart closely, our currency may give buoyancy to the local POG, something to watch.


----------



## Wysiwyg

explod said:


> What we have on the 10 year chart is an upsloping head and shoulders almost complete.
> 
> A cleanout at around US$1100 would complete it and then would look bullish from there.  Maybe Trump's installation will be the trigger.



I thought a move to gold would happen too. Maybe after the first Trump sabre rattle spooks the market. All know he is a compulsive liar so that may not even do it. Place your trust in Trump.


----------



## Miner

Ann said:


> Hi Miner, I don't worry about who buys what, I am purely a 100% chartist and leave the fundamentals to others. I watch the Kitco live gold chart for fun. (no wisecracks please folks!) I noticed out of the corner of my eye, a video the other day and I thought, geez that will cause havoc if it happens.
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/news/video/sho...bshell--India-Faces-Potential-Gold-Import-Ban




Hi Ann
Point taken. However I am a person who sees things and feels when metal comes but naive to read the charts.
But charts only based on past and then extrapolates. It important but can not work alone without fundamentals.
So let us see what your chart predicts today on gold price in next 6 months and see what the real price. 
I will do the same to see how my fundamental analysis works. Of course environment changes and quoting 1971 is too far a shot.
Personally my four gold stocks are going south so I will be happier if your charts foretell better gold prices for sure


----------



## Ann

explod said:


> What we have on the 10 year chart is an upsloping head and shoulders almost complete.
> 
> A cleanout at around US$1100 would complete it and then would look bullish from there.  Maybe Trump's installation will be the trigger.




Hi explod, I have been caught with H&S shape before. I find unless it is at the highest pinnacle or very lowest bottom for an inverted H&S it tends not to resolve as expected. Having said that, your call of $1100 may have a real potential if it bounces off So Cynical's 10 year trending support. I am seeing a falling channel also drawn on his chart. Gold may want to test the lower trend line of the channel under the 10 year trendline at $950ish. 

Now I have so many lines all over my chart, it is almost unreadable, and looks more like I am drawing a cat's cradle. Better go and clean it up


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> The wager was always on, because I stood by what I said about the POG. I was calling another top, and got the normal bashing, of which we spoke, from the normal culprits. Well not all of them, I think a few thought better of it, this time around.
> 
> There are going to be solid levels of resistance to a rise I am thinking,




I was always expecting a retracement from the August Highs but not quite this deep, however, now that it is on its current cycle I wont be surprised to see it test $1120 early next year.  I still think if it gets down to $1070  you will see a Bull stampede for an extended period. 

Re the resistance to a future rise, i see it differently ... Last 2 months the fall has been sharp with minimal consolidation areas so the resistance on the return journey should be equally as "easy".  The quicker it goes lower the more Bullish I'll get on the next leg up.

PS My wager debt has been paid to Joe.  Anyone who wishes to confirm that may ask him with my blessing  I am poorer for the experience but happy that I have donated to a good cause ... I intend to win next months tipping comp anyway so nothing lost really:


----------



## Ann

Miner said:


> Hi Ann
> Point taken. However I am a person who sees things and feels when metal comes but naive to read the charts.
> But charts only based on past and then extrapolates. It important but can not work alone without fundamentals.
> So let us see what your chart predicts today on gold price in next 6 months and see what the real price.
> I will do the same to see how my fundamental analysis works. Of course environment changes and quoting 1971 is too far a shot.
> Personally my four gold stocks are going south so I will be happier if your charts foretell better gold prices for sure




Hi Miner, we all need to work with what feels right for each of us, we will always do better working that way. 

Here is where you and I disagree, The past influences the future with patterns of behavior worked into a chart. This is what I endeavor to read. If I tried to add fundamentals to the mix, it would make me second guess what I was seeing, and take away my pure view of a chart. 

From now on it is wait and see. All I can offer is an opinion that higher prices are unlikely and there are a number of supports along the way which may send it up for a rise every-so-often. More likely to be a slow zigzag ride, down that falling channel.

Money may move out of gold at various levels along the way, depending on points reached by other things, such as the $US, Euro, the DOW. Even bonds may offer appeal to some as the interest rates rise. It is not simply gold all on its own. There is a gold quarterly chart I will revisit which also tells me a story. That will happen in December.


----------



## Ann

barney said:


> I was always expecting a retracement from the August Highs but not quite this deep, however, now that it is on its current cycle I wont be surprised to see it test $1120 early next year.  I still think if it gets down to $1070  you will see a Bull stampede for an extended period.




I thought if it broke through that rising support it was going to be a hot knife falling. I had no doubt it would fall eventually.  It could get down to a long term support from 2010 of $1058. That looks like a really strong level. If that is breached it may be ugly. Chasing down to the bottom support of the falling channel. 



barney said:


> Re the resistance to a future rise, i see it differently ... Last 2 months the fall has been sharp with minimal consolidation areas so the resistance on the return journey should be equally as "easy".  The quicker it goes lower the more Bullish I'll get on the next leg up.




Trouble as I see it,  there are points where overhead resistance has been caused by past rises during its fall. These will all be offering resistance points. $1220 being an important level. Then 1300. Plus not forgetting that massive overhead falling resistance line coming from 2011. Three times that has smashed the price down really conclusively. The $US POG is really under pressure IMO. The POG in $A may be a different call.




barney said:


> PS My wager debt has been paid to Joe.  Anyone who wishes to confirm that may ask him with my blessing  I am poorer for the experience but happy that I have donated to a good cause ... I intend to win next months tipping comp anyway so nothing lost really:




I had no doubt you would give that to Joe, you are a really good sport and he is the quiet, awesome one. I would be happy to lose a bet with Joe as the recipient. Just not with those tipping contests, I am crap with those! So good luck!


----------



## So_Cynical

Ann said:


> G'day So Cynical,
> With those wee charts they have on Kitco, they are in Log scale and squished up small making them slightly distorted. Good for a quick overview, just hard to draw reliable lines on them. I have drawn a quick 10 year chart in Log for you, without the distortion of a minimized chart. You will see a bit of a different story, without the distortion.




Well that bottom trend line is/was broken, i would think a revisit of the 1050 level is likely, a potential double bottom, i really think that a good shake out would help, a proper bust like coal and nickel had, something under a thousand.

Thanks for the chart Ann


----------



## Quant

i think lows in gold are only days away  , i rarely trade gold but i think opportunity is about to knock , will get back here when the day is nigh with some charts  .


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> .  It could get down to a long term support from 2010 of $1058. That looks like a really strong level. If that is breached it may be ugly.




Agree although I have the Uncle point at $1046  ... (potential Sell Level just below that on chart)





Ann said:


> Trouble as I see it,  there are points where overhead resistance has been caused by past rises during its fall. These will all be offering resistance points. $1220 being an important level. Then 1300. Plus not forgetting that massive overhead falling resistance line coming from 2011.




The $1200-1250 does look a good "indicator" level. I think there will be a fair bit more pushing and shoving before we get a definitive move ...... My bet is a test of the lows followed by a sustained rise above the 2016 highs.  Thats my preference anyway




Ann said:


> I had no doubt you would give that to Joe, you are a really good sport and he is the quiet, awesome one. I would be happy to lose a bet with Joe as the recipient. Just not with those tipping contests, I am crap with those! So good luck!




I've had a good run on the Tipping over the last few months so I owed Joe a few bucks anyway!


----------



## Joules MM1

Barney :cup:

the Cayman Island long-nosed gator pattern .....i knew you'd ask ..


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> Barney :cup:
> 
> the Cayman Island long-nosed gator pattern .....i knew you'd ask ..





Damn it Joules ... There are a lot of Gold Bears in the woods at present and if you are one of them I am genuinely concerned  ..... More input from you please Sir as I don't wish to turn into Goldilocks


----------



## Joules MM1

barney said:


> Damn it Joules ... There are a lot of Gold Bears in the woods at present and if you are one of them I am genuinely concerned  ..... More input from you please Sir as I don't wish to turn into Goldilocks




the ideal level i was/am expecting a reverse swing or at least an attempt to feign a reverse of "some" magnitude (as my technique has a requisit of ratios/symmetry I have to wait to see a low established and the construct of that)
is in the 1139 -1116 zone of the front month cfd (my measures say 1116's is a 'better' fit)
the 78.6% retrace of the whole upmove todate is also in the 1116's zone (metals adhere to .786's and .886's recurrently than say the usual .618's %'s etc) .....traders should be careful of using end-point to end-point measures like lucas/gann/fibonacci simply because they do not and cannot relate to anything other than two end points, so, in that regard they are merely random numbers ...the point of highlighting the .786% is that it is within a cluster of other ratios that are part of the larger construct (the bear trend)...woops, writing a book....

the structure thus far down hill has begun to essentially trend with all the usual abcxabc type lifts followed by GTFO levels where momo gets added and you know sellers are intentionally leaning....all the lifts dry up very quickly with rarely more than 6-7 points, the construct immediately becomes choppy and overlapping, so the bounce signals (with more downside to come) become clear very quickly...much of my trading consists of about 6 hours hey-hey sunshine followed by about 60 hours of choppy nuggets..sounds like a trend to me....

the one anecdote that is obviously clear, to people who can get out of the way of their own bias, is the extreme bullish sentiment at the swing high and obverse to that the extreme contracts of the commercials......so, yeah, the commercials probably need to close out more than they have.... participation is generally, in the current price range, low now, which to me adds to background of weaker longs not necessarily aggressive bears

so going back to the bullish extreme sentiment, it needs to be clear that after 5 years of bear market the rampant desire to own PM's is completely at odds with the % of the weekly decline(s) and the relatively minute amount of time taken in the current bounce....it just doesnt fit the picture of a new bull phase and yet fits the picture perfectly of a bounce that small traders (and trend following managers) want desperately to be  an uptrend

the $DX is on a rip yer face off uptrend.....so, there's that......

my guess is we've almost completed A (up) and B (down) with C (up) to come ......but first we need to get a little palpable fear into the print......the kind of fear that makes the anti gold nuts come out confidence and wave the toldya-so flag around

i placed the symmetry boxes on the previous chart to show a little idea that price and time are playing out as they usually do, that the first interruption (the 2007-2009 bear for equities) is matched in the opposite direction currently.....these things of themselves are merely roadsigns and my experience is that when they unfurl in the same direction (price direction) they tend to have an expectancy of repetition, these are relative to size and of course the context needs to be taken into account, that means what type of moves (progressive or pro-regressive) .......i'm trying to avoid writing a small novel here, suffice to say; we know bear markets are excruciatingly long for bulls..... these bounces should carry a lot of mistrust and they don't !!

stepping much further back in the view, the weekly overhead downtrend line has printed neatly as the roof, so, from that perspective it is not surprising that the bounce has needed to take a big step back wards to regain strength to get thru that overhead and as can be clearly shown in this chart next chart 
(hat tip @rvm for the find) the tap on the roof saw a big GTFO series of trades, the deep pockets getting out while the managers and small species were filling their boots, again, with current participation so quiet it is hard to see gold/silver heading north until we get to the level where every donkey is calling for much much lower levels




when all retailers start using emotive logic to describe outlandish lower numbers and it becomes normal type then we can expect that to play into the bid side

....i run out of texaco chances at 1116's for deep pocket bids to come play, even tho ratios are a guide and offer risk levels theyre secondary to the auction, the auction just agrees more of the same the levels can be immediately disregarded and with them taken out a re-profiling of the likely action to come
...much like vpoc's n waps etc, ratios are subjective requiring understanding of the relative size and context

where were we....oh yeah....predicting......hmmmm....




"small species" is correct, chortle ......


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> the ideal level i was/am expecting a reverse swing or at least an attempt to feign a reverse of "some" magnitude (as my technique has a requisit of ratios/symmetry *I have to wait to see a low established* and the construct of that) is in the 1139 -1116 zone of the front month cfd (my measures say 1116's is a 'better' fit).. the 78.6% retrace of the whole upmove todate is also in the 1116's zone
> 
> ..... so going back to the bullish extreme sentiment, it needs to be clear that after 5 years of bear market the rampant desire to own PM's is completely at odds with the % of the weekly decline(s) and the relatively minute amount of time taken in the current bounce....it just doesnt fit the picture of a new bull phase and yet fits the picture perfectly of a bounce that small traders (and trend following managers) want desperately to be  an uptrend
> 
> .... my guess is we've almost completed A (up) and B (down) with C (up) to come ......but *first we need to get a little palpable fear into the print*......the kind of fear that makes the anti gold nuts come out confidence and wave the toldya-so flag around
> 
> these are relative to size and of course the context needs to be taken into account, that means what type of moves (progressive or pro-regressive) .......
> 
> ....stepping much further back in the view, the weekly overhead downtrend line has printed neatly as the roof
> 
> ....*it is hard to see gold/silver heading north until we get to the level where every donkey is calling for much much lower levels
> *
> .... *when all retailers start using emotive logic to describe outlandish lower numbers and it becomes normal type then we can expect that to play into the bid side*
> 
> .... i run out of texaco chances at 1116's for deep pocket bids to come play,




What scares me is that after I read your response for the third time (and I stopped drinking beer)..
....... I felt I was speaking fluent "Joules" 

Thanks for your input Sir J .... anything you say on Gold I have much respect for!!

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but to translate for those that don't speak "Joules" ...... 2016 has seen an expected bounce in the long downtrend but the current return to the downtrend is as expected.  We could well see a possible Bull bounce from the current downtrend around your predicted 1116 levels depending on price action etc etc but without some sustained commitment from the Bull side, the downtrend remains the trend. I hope I have done your long reply justice?

Interestingly, if I have the above translation relatively correct, i agree very closely with your analysis, with the exception that if Gold actually dips under your 1116 level and reaches 1069 (almost to the pip) then reverses to the upside with some gusto, I have it pegged as the bottom of the Bear.  I agree if it bounces off a level higher than that and doesn't test 1069, there will likely be a lot less steam in the pipes and all bets are off ... If it breaks the December 2015 lows I expect some personal pain with my Gold stocks!! ... I've had pain before however and will likely survive 

PS Just noticed on that other thread of your reference to "Guitars" ...... If you are also a guitarist, speaking "Joules" just made more sense lol ....


----------



## Joules MM1

barney said:


> What scares me is that after I read your response for the third time (and I stopped drinking beer)..
> ....... I felt I was speaking fluent "Joules"
> 
> Thanks for your input Sir J .... anything you say on Gold I have much respect for!!
> 
> Please correct me if I'm wrong, but to translate for those that don't speak "Joules" ...... 2016 has seen an expected bounce in the long downtrend but the current return to the downtrend is as expected.  We could well see a possible Bull bounce from the current downtrend around your predicted 1116 levels depending on price action etc etc but without some sustained commitment from the Bull side, the downtrend remains the trend. I hope I have done your long reply justice?
> 
> Interestingly, if I have the above translation relatively correct, i agree very closely with your analysis, with the exception that if Gold actually dips under your 1116 level and reaches 1069 (almost to the pip) then reverses to the upside with some gusto, I have it pegged as the bottom of the Bear.  I agree if it bounces off a level higher than that and doesn't test 1069, there will likely be a lot less steam in the pipes and all bets are off ... If it breaks the December 2015 lows I expect some personal pain with my Gold stocks!! ... I've had pain before however and will likely survive
> 
> PS Just noticed on that other thread of your reference to "Guitars" ...... If you are also a guitarist, speaking "Joules" just made more sense lol ....




yeah, pretty much, minus the "predicting" word  ....some techniques work fine on some instruments, but, lesser so on others, some techniques can be refined on some instruments and it's in this area of nuances that requires a keen eye for the different phases each instrument is going thru wile applying a technique honed for that phase on that instrument....

there's nothing that says gold cannot now go below the weekly downtrend low, shave off a hunj and then make like it's begun a real new uptrend, in some respects that would fit the weekly downtrend to a T......in that respect it first  kills off a lot weak longs and then goes about creating a new set of weak longs, what Elliotticians call a B, a fake-out lower low, only for price to come back inside the previous range and make a slight new higher high above the previous swing high, low conviction in volume but mass belief for bargain hunters (retail and managers who are forced to trend follow) ....the auction does it's job very effectively, liquidity transfer......

also i did not mention that www.timingcharts.com COT shows commercials were at a significantly reduced STO positions this weeks report at -167K versus the swing low in late May 31st report at -214k 
and on friday one of my ratios was hit on a marginal hourly lower low pog ..so relatively speaking and with context of the swing-sizes in mind (and the bull leg in $DX) we'd have to say there's a good evidence some commercials have unwound but not aggressively seeking cheap supply in the area we're in now, again, adding to the idea we have lower to range, that the contract size is extremely large compared to the weekly bear trend low, again, this favours more lower prices and it is precisely because of this anecdotal i wont be sticking to any predictive levels i'll be looking for signature moves that say there's an intent to rotate price north or an intent to force rebalancing of longs, as frankly, if gold was back on its bear leg we'd already be much much lower and i'm saying with regard to commercials make trend when they decide to make trend without me having to sit years of masters in economics, the gorilla in the dinghy





so i thought, let's take a gander at something diff, a diff pov ...
i'm fairly rusty in the du pique EW but this....

keep in mind it's a sunday study for things that make ya go yeah-maybe and monday i'll have a completely different perspective (levels levels levels, know your levels)


----------



## Joules MM1

cheers, Barney


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> cheers, Barney




https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat
free to follow the timeline .....you'll need a 1 min cfd front month contract chart real time


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> there's a *good evidence some commercials have unwound but not aggressively seeking cheap supply* in the area we're in now, again, adding to the idea we have lower to range,
> 
> *i'll be looking for signature moves that say there's an intent to rotate price north* or an intent to force rebalancing of longs, as frankly, *if gold was back on its bear leg we'd already be much much lower*





I know you've spent a lot of time on Gold over the years Joules ... appreciate you sharing some of your little pearls ..... or perhaps that should be nuggets





Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat
> free to follow the timeline .....you'll need a 1 min cfd front month contract chart real time




Cheers M8  i still have 3 live CFD accounts with varying degrees of depleted funds


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> www.timingcharts.com COT shows commercials were at a significantly reduced STO positions this weeks report at -167K versus the swing low in late May 31st report at -214k
> and on friday one of my ratios was hit on a marginal hourly lower low pog ..so relatively speaking and with context of the swing-sizes in mind (and the bull leg in $DX) we'd have to say there's a good evidence some commercials have unwound but not aggressively seeking cheap supply in the area we're in now, again, adding to the idea we have lower to




this weeks COT -154k commercials so we're def in the hitting zone ...but ...with every small surge in the 30 second bars recovering average 4-6 points there's a sell the rally tag attached  

that 1140 ish level is looking v. attractive .....the surges def look like an attempt to bid up, to look for weakness in the selling and maybe some games (no, really?) but bottom line is the auction is trending but not cleanly which again lends itself to the idea we have a strong swing north coming ....
i think the reverse signal will be yelling its head off when the baby arrives ......

thus far every series (30 sec bars) of bids/fakes/lifts, whatever they are, they come with clear set of instructions on the box, choppy, overlapping, quickly stalled out, the rips run into a brick wall and easily triggering must-buy-the-bargain for retail "true believers" ...so just on a price action basis, the signal to stay short or sell the lifts is clear ....the brick walls i refer to come in the form of ratio lengths, in other words the pulls in both directions are not random most of the time, in fact they allude to price structure and keep the logic of larger degrees of trend south a clear signal and that's the basic tenet i am using to trade this phase

look for the puke trade and mind the gap


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> *look for the puke trade and mind the gap*




LOL ... Appreciate your commentary Sir Joules  ... Next leg down looks like it might be brewing as I type.


----------



## daveM

Today Gold has a Bullish Fibonacci pattern  AB = CD. So there may be a chance of a revovery in near future.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Quant said:


> i think lows in gold are only days away  , i rarely trade gold but i think opportunity is about to knock , will get back here when the day is nigh with some charts  .



Quant? Do you use quantitative analysis or just like the name? I am keen to see your chart analysis. Thanks.


----------



## Joules MM1

strong leap out of the small channel in the daily swing -  beware the fakes


----------



## notting

It had a pretty strong crack at 1150 and got smacked down.
I'm thinking the Trump inauguration has plenty of scope for international tensions.
China Just sailed it's aircraft carrier through Taiwanese waters and has rewarded  Duterte President of the Philippines for bowing to China on its terms. Beijing pledged $24 billion in investment and aid when Duterte visited Chinese leaders in October, a landmark event after competing maritime claims had strained relations since 2012.

An easing of maritime tension and Dutertes request for the US to get out of it's navel bases in the Philippines is setting up the biggest shift in global security the world has seen.
If China is breaking up the island chain that has contained it's sea born expansionist intentions then they are posturing for invasions.

To date China has only being able to invade the countries on it's land boarders like Tibet and East Turkistan where it continues to carry out it's genocide.
China is yet to finish building it's multiple air craft carries which it will need to invade beyond the Island Chain in the South China sea if it is to expand further.

But never the less the gold price could see some strength if China goes for Taiwan or becomes more aggressive with it's illegal weapons building up on the islands it has created the South China Sea.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said on a visit to the U.S. last year that "China does not intend to pursue militarization" of the area. Recent satellite images show that China has installed anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapons on its man-made islands in the strategically vital South China Sea, upping the stakes in what many see as Chinese aggression and expansionist maneuvers in Asia.




This is all rather alarming but potentially boosting for the Gold price.


----------



## Quant

Geez i thought i was on Zerohedge there for a moment  . and none of that anti chinese rhetoric has any influence on gold but anyway   ...    US does same thing and its defending its freedon while they kick sand in everyones face and china is taking over the world  .... Go figure


----------



## notting

I shorted 8 Ausi Gold stocks at the close of trade the day Trump got in.  That was even before the US and European markets had opened with that news. Gold had peaked, if you were paying attention.
I got out of my gold shorts at about 30% profit a piece.
Now I am up on 3 by 8% playing that vague theme, the fears that made gold spike on that day are now far more valid than the panic of that day.  We just need confirmation when he opens his mouth as president.  But the market is already adjusting for that risk so I am in early with a buffer already in place.
Has some relevance to gold for me.


----------



## Ann

I am adding the Gold quarterly chart, not that there is much to see as it continues to slide down. However, over the next month or two it may rally upward if the US stockmarket goes into correction mode, which is highly likely. I can't see it rising above the right-angle top of the falling wedge but short term players may make a dollar or two, perhaps!


----------



## notting

Fed makes even more hawkish statements and gold rallies.
Lets see what happens when the grown ups come back from their holidays.


----------



## Ann

There has been a bit of a gold rally since I last posted and now it is nudging the all important $1200 support/resistance level. It will be interesting to see if it can close above $1200 and rally upward for a bit. My guess is no but I wouldn't be taking any bets on this one!


----------



## Quant

Wysiwyg said:


> Quant? Do you use quantitative analysis or just like the name? I am keen to see your chart analysis. Thanks.



  Sorry i took a while to reply , i was waiting on the FOMC  exhaustion which happened , 2016 put in a HH on yearly and i expected the HL and timing was perfect , technical and some fundamentals involved as well but reluctant to get into that considering how emotive people are with gold and on ASF in general


----------



## Quant

"""  
Wysiwyg said: ↑
Quant? Do you use quantitative analysis or just like the name? I am keen to see your chart analysis. Thanks.  ""

Oh and i definitely use Quantitative analysis but once again reluctant to get into discussions about that here especially after the baking the esteemed , well respected and factual Howard Bandy got . Cant stand the dick measuring ego **** and will avoid totally , bordering on trolls tbh , sad actually as this place could be so much more than it is but it is what it is , traders are such dicks generally , so many smart people's wisdom is missed ....


----------



## Wysiwyg

Quant said:


> Oh and i definitely use Quantitative analysis but once again reluctant to get into discussions about that here especially after the baking the esteemed , well respected and factual Howard Bandy got



Well I suppose I am a quantitative analyst of some sort by using formulae to technically analyse. Not complex calcs. though and as I have found the field is abstract.


----------



## Quant

Wysiwyg said:


> Well I suppose I am a quantitative analyst of some sort by using formulae to technically analyse. Not complex calcs. though and as I have found the field is abstract.



I use it Howard Bandy style , put lot of work into it . a reliable all market algo is very hard work , thats why not many make it . it is complex to a degree . it has to be to deal with different market conditions


----------



## Trembling Hand

Quant said:


> I use it Howard Bandy style , put lot of work into it . a reliable all market algo is very hard work , thats why not many make it . it is complex to a degree . it has to be to deal with different market conditions




Quant when you say "all market"? I assume you are talking about different phases of markets, volatile, trending high volume, go nowhere low vol, ranging etc? What time frame are you looking at?


----------



## Quant

Trembling Hand said:


> Quant when you say "all market"? I assume you are talking about different phases of markets, volatile, trending high volume, go nowhere low vol, ranging etc? What time frame are you looking at?




Yes i filter volatility , trend , momentum . All that type of thing  , stops are dynamic adjusting to volatility . I use a 2 bar reversal filter to assist entry and i have developed a very neat bull/bear count to keep me in the trade till momentum/move is over  . Entries are easy and exits were always my weakness previously  .

I predominantly trade 30m TF as i seek to trade the swings intraday and take a large bite out of the range . Have quite a few rules to deal with breakouts and swings on higher TFs (daily)  , i do monitor the next time frame up so i dont trip over dynamics of bigger picture


----------



## GoldHunt

The market is getting excited about the new run-up in gold again and many start to bet 'the start of the new bull market. But based on my Cycle analysis, my view is very different from them.

Yes, on short term time frame, Gold has reversed up and that is why we have bought Gold and Silver (long) recently and we have just taken the profits as well. It is still possible to see the higher prices (1250) after a few days of consolidation.

Remember! Short term trade is very different from long term investment. For long term investment, we must buy in slowly based on the major turning point.

The following short term charts (expecting higher prices in gold and Silver) were sent to the members more than a week ago - we went Long (bought gold) on the 6th Jan.








The medium term outlook remains bearish. See Charts below









credit : johnyii.com


----------



## Valued

There isn't much of a fundamental reason for a gold rally right now in my opinion. Any opposing views?


----------



## Bill M

Bill M said:


> I do not think gold is a very good investment. Luckily it wasn't much more than just a dabble.
> 
> If I had to make a bet right now on which would be higher by year end (in AUD terms including dividends) Gold or the XAO, I will bet on the XAO. Let's see what happens.
> 
> Today in AUD the POG is $1,562 at 17:08 Hours source http://goldprice.org/
> and
> Today the XAO closed at 4,969



Well, it is exactly 1 year since I made those comments. Lets look at what $10,000 has turned into.

Todays gold price is $1,600 AUD. Up 2.5% for the 12 Months. Your 10K would have turned into $10,250

The XAO right now is at 5709. Up 15% for the 12 Months. Plus, at a minimum I earned 5% in distributions for holding my ETF's. That's a 20% return for the year. My 10K has turned into $12,000.

This year the Gold buffs start with $10,250 and I start with $12,000. We see what happens in the next 12 Months. I'm staying with my stocks for sure.


----------



## GoldHunt

Gold continues to show strength and finally pushing through the critical resistance 1222 to 1235.50 today.

Though we are still bearish on medium term but on short term, we are bullish and that is why we are buying and holding Long positions. Currently, momentum is building up and money flow is still positive. We see a possible upside to 1250 - 1279 and We will continue to monitor as we go along.

In term of timing, a short term top could possibly be seen in March

Gold Weekly chart - showing more momentum is building up


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL what a friggin mess!!

Where is the dislike button?


----------



## Valued

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL what a friggin mess!!
> 
> Where is the dislike button?




I made it prettier. Do you like it?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Post of the year....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

I even came back today to have a second look, there's so many little things you see the next time around, today I'm LOL'ing over "rectangles are pretty"


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I even came back today to have a second look, there's so many little things you see the next time around, today I'm LOL'ing over "rectangles are pretty"



That second coming of jesus formation I often see setting up but alas it always fails without any follow through.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> That second coming of jesus formation I often see setting up but alas it always fails without any follow through.



Yeah but, at least we know that next time we see a full moon with the sun in uranus, POG will reach at least 1255 (according to the fibber nachos). Credit where credit is due!


----------



## Quant

Those charts previous page just make me cringe with the 10 indicators/mas , screams retail newbie , beyond useless . Less is more people  . This guy is selling services , steer clear of that junk ...


----------



## kid hustlr

Price of milk got me


----------



## Quant

Gold nice solid run of dec FOMC lows , coincidently FOMC on march 15 is looking a chance to align with the headwinds at wedge extreme  1280ish  , possibly pullback here briefly . I am still a gold bull and i expect >1400 during 2017 , time will tell  ... HL and HH in 2016 leads me to believe multi year lows are in on gold


----------



## alfredgervais16

Notably, the price of gold has been on the rise this year as investors turned to safe have due to a swirl of  volatility in the market. The ongoing Brexit process, the start of the President Donald Trump era and the current political turmoil in Europe were some of the crucial factors on the rise of the precious metal.

But aside from these existing influences, there is another triumvirate that could be a triple threat for the fate of gold this year. *What does 2017 store for the price of gold?*


----------



## Trembling Hand

> Gold, no doubt, has done wonders to investors but can it continue its furious run this year?
> 
> Only markets can tell.



Insightful analysis.


----------



## Quant

Gold relevant to FOMC but swing low not high  , break of downtrend should get some nice bullish momentum




Daily bullcount back in control


----------



## rb250660

You blokes are having a laugh right? Is there actually a trading plan in amongst that pile of lines? Looks like a draftsman took some acid after 40 sugar cane champagne tins and threw up on their drawings.

I have an indicator called bulls**tCount. It's off the charts right now.


----------



## Quant

rb250660 said:


> You blokes are having a laugh right? Is there actually a trading plan in amongst that pile of lines? Looks like a draftsman took some acid after 40 sugar cane champagne tins and threw up on their drawings.
> 
> I have an indicator called bulls**tCount. It's off the charts right now.



Good luck to you champ , i realise you dont " understand" it  and thats fine . But your attitude well that is a whole different thing  . You are exposing your limitations and no-one elses

gold trade stats


----------



## drillinto

*Jim Rogers Picks Financial Tiger for First China Startup Investment*
By Yang Ge

http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-03-30/101072514.html


----------



## Quant

Gold ticked a huge box for me last couple days , onwards & upwards


----------



## CanOz

Agree quant, 1300 is my short term target.


----------



## Quant

Gold has flipped Bull count on daily today , time for swing longs


----------



## Userman

*History Predicts An Amazing Run For Gold Over The Next Several Years*

https://etfdailynews.com/2017/05/16/history...-several-years/


*
NXS.V / NXXGF - Nexus Gold - Completes Phase 2 Drilling*


http://www.nexusgoldcorp.com

*
ALZ.V / ALZTF - Aldershot Resources - A New Gold Discovery *

http://www.aldershotresources.com


----------



## tech/a

It is our opinion that the situation today best mirrors 1973, rather than 2008. 1973 was spurred by overwhelming debt and inflation. It is no secret that the world’s governments will continue printing money to fund growth and to service debt. But like clockwork, eventually something gives. We foresee the debt bubble finally popping, and the coming turmoil exaggerated by the foreign policies of the US Government.

The recession of 1973-1974 saw gold prices gain 134% and gold miners increase 205%. In the next market crash, history is favoring a similar situation and gold will be the safe haven from inflation and uncertainty.

*Until then!*


----------



## explod

Gold in the last week has breached the 4/5 year down trend from US$1900. 

The dumps of paper contracts indicate that gold will break forth with a vengence any week or two now.  They have been huge this last week or so and are becoming almost ineffective in capping the price. 

The "when"  is about now tech/a.   In my humble view of course.


----------



## CanOz

www.themacrotourist.com

Watching gold as well. Although not a conspiracy theorist, i am becoming more bullish on GC.


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> www.themacrotourist.com
> 
> Watching gold as well. Although not a conspiracy theorist, i am becoming more bullish on GC.





FOMC has been a pivotal day re GC  , gold has this week rolled over to a bearish count on my metric so wont be keen to buy a dip early next week


----------



## ducati916

I'm liking a longer trade in the gold miners [several months duration]

I would be long GDX with a target of $35 as of today.

jog on
duc


----------



## explod

Interesting drop at 4am EST overnight.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/central-bank-interevention-slams-paper-gold/

The desperation indicates a decent uptrend could be soon.  HUI only dropped 1% and assie goldies holding up well today also.


----------



## drillinto

*Miners to tighten their belts for the remainder of the year – BMI*

http://www.miningweekly.com/article...en-belts-for-remainder-of-the-year-2017-06-27


----------



## notting

Gold looking very vulnerable.
Not even Kim Jong Un could get a bounce out of it today with a missile test.
Short term short opportunity me thinking.
Be watching and nibbling it over the next few days whilst looking and feeling for confirmation.


----------



## notting

Given that the US has confirmed it was an ICBM that puts that ups the anti.  So going short gold would not be a prudent move at this point!  What will eventuate from the closed council meeting and what will Putin try to pull over Trump in their meeting.

"But bullion has risen 0.6 per cent in two days as* North Korea's rocket launch revives geopolitical concerns*. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the act a "new escalation of the threat" and the United Nations Security Council plans a closed session later on Wednesday after the US requested a meeting. It's up *0.4 per cent to $US1228 *an ounce in Asian trade today."

Without that however -

*"If US unemployment keeps falling*, and the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates no matter what the inflation data show, *that will be negative* for gold in the short term, Gordon said.

Still, solid demand this year and weaker output, coupled with a lower US dollar, are positive for prices, he said. If equity valuations start to drop, investors could turn to gold too, he added.."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ding Dong.......

Sweet Spot.......


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> Ding Dong.......
> 
> Sweet Spot.......



Short at resistance 1240?  If you haven't already!
I shorted NST the day before it reported.  On the day it went up a little then backed down pretty sharply. I only offloaded half on the fake up.


----------



## explod

Signs are that the US dollar will continue to weaken which will add fundamental strength to gold in my view. 

Short at your peril as upward moves in gold at the close of a trading week are unusual and bullish.   Only time will tell of course but caution for now IMHO.


----------



## explod

Gold jumps up 2% and all is silent. 

"Times they are a changing"


----------



## CanOz

Gasoline jumped 6% and explod and zerohedge were silent....gold jumps 2% because some hermit launches a missile and explod crawls out from under a rock with zerohedge and all the other gold bugs..times are changing alright, heck they've already changed explod !


----------



## explod

CanOz said:


> Gasoline jumped 6% and explod and zerohedge were silent....gold jumps 2% because some hermit launches a missile and explod crawls out from under a rock with zerohedge and all the other gold bugs..times are changing alright, heck they've already changed explod !



You cant really save gasolene but you can physical gold.   And due to its deflation I'm not interested  in hoarding money.   $40 cash (equal to an ounce of gold) in the pocket in 1973 is still only $40.  The ounce of gold is now worth $1650


----------



## Wysiwyg

explod said:


> And due to its deflation I'm not interested  in hoarding money.   $40 cash (equal to an ounce of gold) in the pocket in 1973 is still only $40.



You must be hungry by now.


----------



## notting

I was expecting an even better day for gold and worse day for equities than we had.
People don't think Trump is going to do anything.  That would be good.
But he may need to do something for his own kudos amongst his moronic base. Who don't understand.
The USSR was broken not with weapons but just letting them run dry trying to hold onto things that did not want to be held!  China is the same and they know it.

Bigger question might be when is the US going to become less delusional about the strength of it's economy.  The debt is huge, inflation is not inflating them out of it. GDP is not stella at all and if you think they are going to get meaningful tax reform through, think again.

It's a mess!


----------



## greggles

AUD gold price appears to be pushing through resistance at around A$1,680.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nice little earner........from the ding dong post.




COT's have become a little less bearish but may be setting up for seasonal strength.

Gold doesn't believe the Fed - neither does The Market - the Fed has lost control of the monster it has created.....

Buy Crypto, gold is finished? No & no. The Establishment (TE) has been slow to nip this but have now taken steps to control Crypto, just like gold. Eventually TE will still like full control over your 'money' so a centralised Crypto would be TE's wet dream. Give it time and a full blown stock market correction, which is imminent, yet again!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Gasoline jumped 6% and explod and zerohedge were silent....gold jumps 2% because some hermit launches a missile and explod crawls out from under a rock with zerohedge and all the other gold bugs..times are changing alright, heck they've already changed explod !




The more it changes the more it stays the same.

All the Bear Bazookas are still here from 10 years ago, only multiplied by several factors now.

It's not going to take much to trigger a self reinforcing negative feedback loop. Pakistan is essentially a nuclear armed Islamic Caliphate now. Debt and the multitude of bubbles it has created are at records, and yet stocks are priced for perfection in a non perfect world.

The end is literally near.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Still unloved, until it matters......very close now


----------



## So_Cynical

4 and a half years of consolidation is a long consolidation, remember all the bears with their 6, 7 and 800 talk? a break above 1400 in the absence of any disaster price driver should see the old high taken out eventually, will take 2 or 3 or 4 years but it would be pretty much inevitable i would think, a Saudi, Korean or Trump disaster would accelerate that rise.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Fortunately the Fed and it's bankster subs have a new kid to subdue in crypto's so maybe take the attention off gold for a while? Although right now it's looking like a USD play, and the COT's show another pullback is due?
It will take another fiat/crypto extinction event to break out from here. Inflation is everywhere the Fed isn't looking - funny that. The market has them utterly bluffed!
Even the jawboning from Fed members is having no effect - you can literally hear the nervousness in their voices about uncontained bubbles crashing all their good work ie equites.


----------



## greggles

Gold looking to push through AU$1,710. Next stop resistance at around AU$1,750.


----------



## greggles

Gold in AUD at 18 month highs and looking bullish. Higher highs and higher lows since July 2017.


----------



## greggles

Gold gained another A$23 overnight and is now at levels not seen since September 2016. All-time high was A$1821.32 on 6 July 2016.


----------



## Miner

greggles said:


> Gold gained another A$23 overnight and is now at levels not seen since September 2016. All-time high was A$1821.32 on 6 July 2016.
> 
> View attachment 86715



Greggles mate
You are not only on the money but also being correct to stand up with vetting your analysis. 
Good work and good for my gold stocks too


----------



## explod

And very volatile in the last week or two which is in step with the markets.

However gold is going up in the opposite direction to the vale of the super funds.

Interesting times.


----------



## greggles

explod said:


> And very volatile in the last week or two which is in step with the markets.
> 
> However gold is going up in the opposite direction to the vale of the super funds.
> 
> Interesting times.



Gold bounced back hard in the last 24 hours after China announced retaliatory tariffs on a range of U.S. imported goods.

However, gold in AUD is still having difficulty breaking through resistance at A$1,755.


----------



## greggles

Gold in AUD has been range trading between $1725 and $1750 for the past few weeks but just can't break through $1750 with any conviction.

With the U.S. and Russia at loggerheads over Syria, the impetus might finally be there for a strong move north. Just gotta wait for those missiles to start flying in Syria.

Watching with interest.


----------



## greggles

greggles said:


> With the U.S. and Russia at loggerheads over Syria, the impetus might finally be there for a strong move north. Just gotta wait for those missiles to start flying in Syria.




Missiles started flying in Syria but gold wasn't trading. Should see a move north on Monday morning. The geopolitical landscape should be tense for a while. There will be an expectation of a Russian response.


----------



## noirua

Gold appears to have stalled in price just as cryptos collapsed in price. I'm not sure what the correlation is really.  Maybe if they rise quickly again gold will too. Gold backed cryptos by the many hit the blocks in the second quarter of 2018 onwards. Demand for gold will, well should, rise but gradually.  US$1,500 looks like a 2018 target.


----------



## greggles

Gold still struggling to find direction.


----------



## Joules MM1

greggles said:


> Gold still struggling to find direction.
> 
> View attachment 87005




would be inclined to err on the side of longs, very slow squeez upwards ...usd is slumping


----------



## Joules MM1

greggles said:


> Gold still struggling to find direction.
> 
> View attachment 87005




silver leading the way
gold/xau eating its way higher


----------



## explod

Seems set for a positive move now, even Kitco are publishing bullish articles.
However as gold is mainly comprised of paper contracts anything can happen.


----------



## greggles

Gold in AUD taking another crack at $1,750. It's like it wants to push through, but just can't find the momentum.


----------



## greggles

Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris puts half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ight-spot-for-billionaire-who-forecasts-crash


> He said in an interview Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $1,800 per ounce from just above $1,300 now, while “overvalued” stock markets crash.
> 
> “In the end you have China and they will not stop consuming. And people also tend to go to gold during crises and we are full of crises right now,” Sawiris said at his office in Cairo overlooking the Nile. “Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr. Trump doesn’t help.”




That's a sizeable wager. I agree with his logic somewhat, but geopolitical wrangling has a way of turning out differently to how we expect.


----------



## greggles

Gold in AUD is still in an uptrend. The big question is, can it finally break through $1,750 which it has been flirting with for a month and a half now? Perhaps this week?


----------



## greggles

Gold in AUD has finally broken through $1,750 and has done so convincingly. Should see a nice lift in the share price of ASX-listed gold mining companies today, especially those that are largely unhedged.

Next stop $1,800 and then all-time highs?


----------



## greggles

Gold in AUD looking very bullish and primed to take on all-time highs. Not far to go until it is in blue sky territory and I think it has the momentum to get there very soon.


----------



## greggles

Well, gold has broken down and gold miners are tumbling down with it. My hopes and dreams dashed by a broken trend line. I really had some optimism for gold in the short term but it was not to be. For now at least.


----------



## Joules MM1

greggles said:


> Well, gold has broken down and gold miners are tumbling down with it. My hopes and dreams dashed by a broken trend line. I really had some optimism for gold in the short term but it was not to be. For now at least.
> 
> View attachment 87381




not necessarily if youre playing based on AUD, the USD is killing everything so any horizontal play in gold in USD is likely to translate into upwards price action in AUD

here's an alternative way to see this chart


----------



## greggles

Thanks for that different perspective Joules. The reason I follow gold in AUD is because I follow ASX-listed gold miners and AUD gold has a bigger impact on them than USD gold.

It does work as two channels, although AUD gold looks ready to break down through the support line of the top channel, so it will be a struggle for it to stay above it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

greggles said:


> Well, gold has broken down and gold miners are tumbling down with it. My hopes and dreams dashed by a broken trend line. I really had some optimism for gold in the short term but it was not to be. For now at least.
> 
> View attachment 87381



Daily gold futs looks ready to bounce upwards off support trendline.


----------



## kokonut

Hi all,

I'm pretty knew to the markets and couldn't help but ask any reason for the Gold selling off ?


----------



## CanOz

Treasury yields are going up, at the moment gold is correlated to the bonds....yields up, gold down...


----------



## Gringotts Bank

kokonut said:


> Hi all,
> 
> I'm pretty knew to the markets and couldn't help but ask any reason for the Gold selling off ?



How many contracts did you buy?

http://grammarist.com/homophones/knew-vs-new/


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Daily GC


----------



## kokonut

Gringotts Bank said:


> How many contracts did you buy?
> 
> http://grammarist.com/homophones/knew-vs-new/




Unfortunately I didn't enter in any.


----------



## Joules MM1

greggles said:


> It does work as two channels,




think of that idea as one channel with a psuedo "mean" within the channel....varification of the validity is the repetition of price hitting the line and getting rejection and acceptance .....somethings cannot be fudged


----------



## Joules MM1

the axiom 50% of what you read/hear is BS ....the trick is knowing which 50%
https://www.gold.org/research/gold-...tm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wgc-gold-2048

*Gold 2048*
*Published 17th May 2018 *


----------



## greggles

Gold's been having a good run in the last few hours.


----------



## CanOz

Gold is also getting ripe....


----------



## fiftyeight

Ripe for a short?


----------



## greggles

I think that's what CanOz means but I'd like to understand why.


----------



## CanOz

Posted on Twiiter......

Gold looking ripe for move away from a well developed lower balance area. Given the DX at res, could be up, nice R:R either way, play a retest i reckon.


----------



## fiftyeight

The profile on the right, what area does that include?


----------



## CanOz

It's just a dated composite to include the range that you see


----------



## fiftyeight

I am not sure that is the most appropriate date to be using as it cut off a lot previous moves. (Yes I know charting is subjective before someone points it out.) Moving the date back just a few months shows we could be moving back in to an area of previous balance. Or we bounce off this back to more recent balance.......so I guess either way it is as you said, seems ripe for a move either way.

Maybe play this idea via gold vix?

Just starting to look at this stuff now so I could be completely off also haha


----------



## CanOz

Ah yes i see your point. In order to get the whole profile i'd need data back to 2010...like this...

So i chose 2 years worth or so.


----------



## greggles

Market profile looks interesting but I don't really understand its practical application.

Would make a good thread.


----------



## CanOz

Consolidating near the HVN above the value area that it left behind...1308.6 is an excellent possibility.


----------



## greggles

Very strange up and down roller coaster-like price action on gold overnight. It looks like a tug-of-war between the gold bulls and bears.


----------



## Joules MM1

.


----------



## greggles

Joules, what sort of impact do you think that will have on the gold price?


----------



## Joules MM1

greggles said:


> Joules, what sort of impact do you think that will have on the gold price?




the impact is already in mode ......general decline with most commods in a  very large winter bear trend with (current) resurgences until the cycle is complete and we start a new spring .....we know from the number of miners who are ready to back-door refit like RDS PEL A1C
maybe another 10 years of gen decline ....doesnt mean individuals cannot make the most of the AUD

the peak in capital investment is never locked with gold


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

this is a compelling argument of where we are, only in so much as regardless the time scale gold makes a great fractal


----------



## greggles

Gold is really struggling. It looks like it has broken down through the lower channel and is heading lower.


----------



## greggles

Gold in USD looking no better.


----------



## greggles

Joules, what do you think? Is the channel still intact? Gold feels bearish but I want to be optimistic.


----------



## Joules MM1

greggles said:


> Joules, what do you think? Is the channel still intact? Gold feels bearish but I want to be optimistic.
> 
> View attachment 87678




i think the channels only useful to denote the short term swings within the large congestion zone so you need smaller contexts to build your ideas about where price is likely to go....if youre using channels for entries and exits then stick to them
i am currently short silver looking for a break of the tri as at least that has an anecdotal boundary and most of the upside swings have been hooks but PM's are a mess waiting for a catalyst to get upwards and without that i suggest we need to go lower to find the level bids will overrun sellers


----------



## Joules MM1

xau completely dollar-driven today .....again


----------



## greggles

Gold in $US is still in an 18 month uptrend. If the latst year and a half is anything to go by, we should be ready for the next leg up.


----------



## peter2

I was doing some scanning on US stocks and noticed that a few silver miners were appearing. Wondered why. XAGUSD broke out 5-6 days ago. Missed that completely.


----------



## greggles

AUD down in the last 24 hours, but gold in AUD up $35 in the same period. ASX-listed gold miners should have a good day today.


----------



## greggles

Russia continues to dump treasuries and stockpile gold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...uries-for-gold-in-pivot-after-sanctions-scare


----------



## explod

greggles said:


> Russia continues to dump treasuries and stockpile gold.
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...uries-for-gold-in-pivot-after-sanctions-scare
> 
> View attachment 88168



And they are winding it up too.  Trump has ordered the Middle East to increase oil production which of course is the US dollar backing.   Could this week see gold start to go again.


----------



## CanOz

I'm not that bullish Plod....


----------



## explod

See your angle CanOz,  however politics guide the main thrust of my investment strategies.

Not hellbent yet of corse but interesting times.


----------



## greggles

The last six weeks have been very bearish for the gold price in USD. Where will it find a bottom?


----------



## CanOz

For all you gold bugs and China haters...from Kevin Muir.

At the risk of alienating all my readers who view gold as a barbarous relic, I am chancing one more post to expand on my ideas regarding the correlation between gold and the Chinese currency.

Although some readers got a chuckle out of my article Gold: Come’on - Admit it - You want to own it, there was also a bunch of pushback on the idea that the Chinese were pegging the price of gold in CNY.

“Why would they do that?”

“To what end?”

And I guess I purposely left out the details, instead I choose to focus on the correlations and leave it to readers to draw their own conclusions.

And before I give you my theories as to the reasons behind the relationship, let’s have a look at how the correlation has fared since I wrote about it last.


Still trading on top of one another. In fact, it’s almost tick for tick.

Speaking of tick for tick, the great twitter account of @TickByTick_Team created a terrific chart that demonstrated the collapse in the volatility of gold priced in CNY. I have recreated using the 90-day historical volatility, but it doesn’t matter which time frame you use - the end result is that gold priced in CNY has become a lot less volatile.


I am sympathetic to the idea that China would never bother to peg the price of gold. Pegging implies that you would be willing to both buy and sell it to keep it at a certain level. I don’t believe that China has any interest in selling even the tiniest little bit of their gold reserves to keep it at a certain price.

But I do believe the Chinese are managing the price of gold priced in CNY. They have in essence provided a floor at which they are willing to accumulate gold. They don’t bother selling it when it rises above that level, but when the gold price descends into their buy zone, they are there with stacks of blues.

So why is the price of gold going down recently? Well, if we assume that China is one of the biggest buyers of gold, when their currency depreciates, their bid for gold priced in US dollars falls.

The price of gold has not been pegged in CNY, it is merely being bought in that currency. The Chinese have fundamentally changed the way they look at gold. Instead of pricing it in US dollars, they are pricing it in CNY. And they are bid. For size.

Kevin Muir

the MacroTourist


----------



## greggles

Interesting article. Thanks for posting CanOz.


----------



## greggles

Gold getting smashed. Looks like it's heading back to December 2016 lows.


----------



## barney

I had $1181 pegged as a potential Low a couple of months back …. Its gone with minimal resistance.  

Fast move to $1125 could set up a nice Rubber Band Trade.

Current move is not treating my Gold Stocks kindly however

Old Chart from 11 July …. then Today's


----------



## greggles

The fall in the gold price is being driven by speculative short positions and a strong US dollar. I'm also thinking rubber band trade when it hits bottom and those short positions need to be covered. The question is, where is the short term bottom for gold?

Interesting article published a couple of days ago: http://www.mining.com/charts-warning-bears-gold-price-drops-1200/


----------



## amitgoyal

Gold has played a unique role in the financial system of online commodity market worldwide. Online gold trading is easy to understand. Here are the simple steps to start trade gold online

1.      Select a Right Broker

2.      Open an online commodity trading account

3.      Start with online gold trading


----------



## CanOz

Watch gold over 1213, should be massive short covering


----------



## greggles

Russia added another 26 tonnes of gold to its reserves in July, increasing its total reserves to 2,170 tonnes.

http://www.mining.com/russia-gold-buying-spree-ahead-tougher-us-sanctions/


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Gold in AUD down, stocks up today after ScoMo/Frydenberg announcement:


----------



## Ann

Hey guys, 
I know it has been a long time since I have uploaded a chart but meh, gold is still farked. I look at the quarterly gold chart each quarter as I have done for years and years. I have been ostricised, criticised and dumped on by all the "ex-sperts" who reside here because I have been telling you the same thing since 2012, a shipload of years. Don't bother to tell me I am wrong. There are too many of my gold charts on this forum to say I am right. I don't have the time or interest to debate with you. Don't bother to argue with me, I am not interested. This is not arrogance it is just too many years of being right by proof of my charts. 
This previous rant sounds crappy and rude but I am really old and have been studying charts and chart reading for decades, get over it! I am sick of those who are fakes with loud mouths. Added to that I probably wont re-visit this post so it is pointless to comment unless you just love the sound of your own voice. It is just what I see on the chart, get over it and shut the truck up because I don't care, I don't give a damn about your opinion also I have no ego.

Hi Joe Blow, I did tell you I would only post here if I had something to say. Quarterly gold chart just keeps repeating itself, so, so boring. I loath repeating myself! However you probably have some new gold bugs here who have become true believers. I like to burst bubbles. Hugs Joe Blow, I still love you and your #1 site! 

Currently there is a very, very long term resistance line at US$1300 on the quarterly US gold chart. It has failed this line for twenty quarters probably 21 this coming September. I called this after the fail in March 2012. Look it up. Gold is not a viable investment as it pays no interest nor does it have reasonable capital gains. It is merely a bauble. I have quite a few thousand dollars worth of baubles because it is pretty, not because it is a real investment. Anything which gives you a dividend and capital appreciation is a viable investment. Sorry Zorro (M.J.) I was never sucked into your believe system even as pretty as you were/are when we had lunch way back when!  

This chart was originally drawn back in March 2012 as a bearish rising megaphone. Over the years I have just extended the resistance lines, but not changed the original interpretation or patterns.


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> Hey guys,
> I know it has been a long time since I have uploaded a chart but meh, gold is still farked. I look at the quarterly gold chart each quarter as I have done for years and years. I have been ostricised, criticised and dumped on by all the "ex-sperts" who reside here because I have been telling you the same thing since 2012, a shipload of years. Don't bother to tell me I am wrong. There are too many of my gold charts on this forum to say I am right. I don't have the time or interest to debate with you. Don't bother to argue with me, I am not interested. This is not arrogance it is just too many years of being right by proof of my charts.
> This previous rant sounds crappy and rude but I am really old and have been studying charts and chart reading for decades, get over it! I am sick of those who are fakes with loud mouths. Added to that I probably wont re-visit this post so it is pointless to comment unless you just love the sound of your own voice. It is just what I see on the chart, get over it and shut the truck up because I don't care, I don't give a damn about your opinion also I have no ego.
> 
> Hi Joe Blow, I did tell you I would only post here if I had something to say. Quarterly gold chart just keeps repeating itself, so, so boring. I loath repeating myself! However you probably have some new gold bugs here who have become true believers. I like to burst bubbles. Hugs Joe Blow, I still love you and your #1 site!
> 
> Currently there is a very, very long term resistance line at US$1300 on the quarterly US gold chart. It has failed this line for twenty quarters probably 21 this coming September. I called this after the fail in March 2012. Look it up. Gold is not a viable investment as it pays no interest nor does it have reasonable capital gains. It is merely a bauble. I have quite a few thousand dollars worth of baubles because it is pretty, not because it is a real investment. Anything which gives you a dividend and capital appreciation is a viable investment. Sorry Zorro (M.J.) I was never sucked into your believe system even as pretty as you were/are when we had lunch way back when!
> 
> This chart was originally drawn back in March 2012 as a bearish rising megaphone. Over the years I have just extended the resistance lines, but not changed the original interpretation or patterns.
> 
> View attachment 89021



Hi Ann …. While I don't actually totally disagree with some of your assessment … I am surprised and bemused by the amount of aggression, and dare I say, potentially perceived arrogance in your post … 

Gold is just another tradeable object in the semi infinite tradeable objects out there so I am semi confused by your desire to make a big deal out of the possibility you may be "right" about it's longer term position

That aside, I am of the opinion that ASF will likely benefit from punters who are prepared to back their own opinions irrespective of the general consensus ….

Difference of opinion/slash friction is actually a good thing on Forum sites, so, bring on your slightly warped sense of opinion on Gold … lol  … 

Hopefully my post is interpreted in the sense that is was intended  Cheers.


----------



## Joe Blow

Ann said:


> Hi Joe Blow, I did tell you I would only post here if I had something to say. Quarterly gold chart just keeps repeating itself, so, so boring. I loath repeating myself! However you probably have some new gold bugs here who have become true believers. I like to burst bubbles. Hugs Joe Blow, I still love you and your #1 site!




Welcome back Ann and hugs to you as well!  Great to see you posting again and thank you for the kind words. I hope you have more to say in future as your insightful posts are very welcome here at ASF and I'm sure I'm not the only one looking forward to more.


----------



## explod

Great to have you back Anne, missed your plodding image heading to the hills.

A line drawn under your chart from around 2004 to the present tells me that gold is a good back up to the portfolio.  And my first trade was on exoil in 1968 and have learnt that diversification is everything and that a wide view of economics is required.  Debt is the business today but when it can no longer hold things I'll be happy with a bit of substance.


----------



## aus_trader

explod said:


> Debt is the business today but when it can no longer hold things I'll be happy with a bit of substance.



Agree, One day it will be brought to spotlight and shine again...


----------



## CanOz

Interesting....


----------



## greggles

CanOz said:


> Watch gold over 1213, should be massive short covering



Not far away now. Gold at US$1211.10 and has just broken through what appears to be minor resistance at US$1208. Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days.


----------



## CanOz

If there are no shorts covering there, sell it...


----------



## CanOz

Nice.....


----------



## greggles

Looks like the gold price is bottoming out around US$1,190. Now it just needs an impetus to move up.


----------



## greggles

*Goldman Trims Gold Forecast But Sees Prices Rising*


> Friday September 21, 2018 09:17
> 
> (Kitco News) - Goldman Sachs looks for gold prices to be at $1,250 a troy ounce in three months and $1,325 a year from now, the investment bank said in a research report late Thursday.
> 
> The updated three-, six- and 12-month forecasts average around $100 lower compared to the bank’s previous outlook as the gold market has been in a sharp downtrend since mid-April, although sideways in recent weeks.
> 
> Goldman described the recent investment environment as similar to the late 1990s, when a boom in technology stocks meant no fear in so-called risk markets in developed nations, while there was a financial crisis in emerging-market countries. Softening emerging-market economic growth and the strong U.S. dollar simultaneously hurt household savings in EM nations, a key metric for gold demand.


----------



## Triple B

Is tonight the night Spot Gold breaks the 4Hour chart Resistance?  As those who sold their stock portfolios look for another investment?? now just bumping the upper trend line on 4hour chart.about to retrace to 23.6fib. Im in 4oz at 1197.75 and another 1oz at 1200.98


Blue line id 4hour 200ma
purple line is 1hour 200ma
Red line is 15min 200ma
orange is 5min 200ma
Here is the 4 hr


----------



## Triple B

New york opens now . will this be the big buy up ??


----------



## Triple B

cpi and unemployment gives a nice hand
Now to get through  the short sellers and then their stops he he


----------



## greggles

greggles said:


> Looks like the gold price is bottoming out around US$1,190. Now it just needs an impetus to move up.




Gold taking a crack at resistance tonight. Will it get past CanOz's magic US$1,213 level? Not far away now.


----------



## Triple B

yes imagine all the shorts stops above there!! took another 2oz as I cant lose from here.


----------



## Triple B

Im off to bed. Good luck gold diggaz


----------



## explod

Don't worry about gold. It will sustain you through it all, IMHO

So glad I have my silver coins.


----------



## explod

The markets and bitcoin creaking but not gold:-


----------



## Triple B

Gold looks to have tested the previous 4h resistance. Support looks confirmed at $1215and now pushing resistance on 1min chart after nice bounce off 1min 200ma.Still in bottom half of trading range



15min chart white MA is 1 min 200ma


----------



## greggles

Yep, US$1,216 is looking like support for now. Looks like sentiment is really starting to turn for gold. All it takes is some real market volatility for people to turn to safe havens. 

I think tonight will be another good night for gold as I'm pretty sure we'll see another decline on U.S. equity markets tonight. It's October and people aren't going to take any chances heading into a weekend.


----------



## Triple B

Hopefully we can make the most of the move. I have been waiting for weeks. already tripled my account after last nights move!![very small acc] and have the 2 positions at BE now.Gives me enough for a few months live training at least.Been making $100 last a month consistantly trading 5%R!!


----------



## Triple B

medium impact news: import prices month -month at 11:30


----------



## Triple B

Nice surprise when I got home!
Next target blue line daily 200ma


----------



## explod

Yes, interesting and on what is the usual ramp down Monday.

Are the foundations of the DOW about to pop.


----------



## Triple B

explod said:


> Yes, interesting and on what is the usual ramp down Monday.
> 
> Are the foundations of the DOW about to pop.




i reckon the red line 200ma is the only thing stopping it now: edited chart this one more interesting


----------



## Triple B

Gold working up off bottom of Trading range . Looks like plenty of selling to get through  to get too the top. if it breaks blue support Im out and back in on bounce off 200ma.
also did a point and figure count of last couple months accumulation .came up with target of $1295


----------



## Triple B

Nice push back into trading range . was thinking short due to the fear in stocks subsiding
now needs to hold and test support for a move up?
	

		
			
		

		
	



AUD /USD went with gold too as often the case.


----------



## CanOz

I see it bullish until we test and fail at 1244 ish....also depending on the sentiment through Europe and the US. IF the Fed is bullish rates in the minutes then i see Europe selling off....Fed minutes tonight


----------



## Triple B

very good . might need fed minutes tonight to break R of trading range.
to hit 1238 soon.
I see the next major R after that at 1250 round no and close to daily 200ma.
P& F count give me target of $1295.
will proceed with caution 
also noticed your prices slightly different than mine.those tops at 1244 on your chart show up as 1236 on mine . Im spot gold ,yours is Gc. I believe there is a difference as futures has holding costs of physical gold included in traders risk?


----------



## Triple B

Gold is moving strong Long . Just breaking 4H Resistance. will it hold?


----------



## sasch

Gold about to pop?


----------



## Ann

I chart gold on a quarterly basis and have done since 2012. It is really easy to call a fall to gold doing it this way. 

Now for a reason only known to me I decided to look at Gold on a long term weekly chart. It has formed an equilateral triangle which is regarded as a continuation pattern. The price of gold has been rising and was never higher than in 2011. So the theory says once it breaks out of the equilateral triangle it should go up, fair enough. However, a lot of traders appear to be looking at the gold price which has been adjusted for inflation. (I find this a right crock of...). However this will then offer a chart shape which shows a double top (adjusted for inflation) with 2011 which would likely influence the POG to fall downward out of the triangle.

Which way do I think it will go? I think down but I could be very, very wrong.

Just for interest I have drawn a swing trade chart showing it both ways. Should I call this chart swinging both ways?


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> *Which way do I think it will go? I think down* but I could be very, very wrong.




Hi @Ann  …… I recall we have had differing opinions previously … that cost me $50 bucks

Anyway … no bet this time but I have XAUAUD pegged to rise this week to around $1700 for the first port of call (currently $1676) If it does that it could go higher quickly. 

I could also be very wrong but I see a potential 'flying horse' trade developing around the current monthly lows …. If not, I am wrong … again

If it starts to look interesting I'll post a chart


----------



## Ann

barney said:


> Hi @Ann
> 
> Anyway … no bet this time but I have XAUAUD pegged to rise this week to around $1700 for the first port of call (currently $1676) If it does that it could go higher quickly.
> 
> If it starts to look interesting I'll post a chart




G'day Barney, looking at the XAUAUD very quickly on a long term chart I can see the AusPOG has the potential to hit a a triple top coming from 2011 and again in 2016 of around $1820.  I will chuck a chart with no comments, I have a lousy flu and am all charted out today. Ahh yes, earlier on I was looking at and charting the 1 month $XGD and it looks like it is weakening. I feel there may be more downside than up at the moment but ......I could be wrong! 

First the AusPOG chart with a daily view over 12 years.




Now the daily $XGD over a one month time frame.
I have a delay on my charts ( I am too tight to pay big bucks for more than I need. These were yesterday's prices.)


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> G'day Barney, looking at the XAUAUD very quickly on a long term chart I can see the AusPOG has the potential to hit a a triple top coming from 2011 and again in 2016 of around $1820.




Thanks Ann … we will watch and see what unfolds ….. I am a bit biased because I hold Aussie Gold Stocks so it may all be wishful thinking ...


----------



## ducati916

I'm thinking $123.47


----------



## Triple B

Looks like Gold is trying to break out of this stinkin range its been in for months tonight.
Strong push up after being sold into mid range , and sellers unable to get back to range support . Asian session today was all bulls. Right near highest price in range now . I expect some resistance over london and the NY vol to Help bust through R , Hitting shorts stops on the way up  mmmm juicy bear stops.
Already scaled in through the range and all BE . (tiny lots)


----------



## explod

The low in August is pretty well confirmed now.  Gold is certainly back on the way up.  Yes there will still be some paper drops but the run for fundamental value is beginning.  Property and the markets very fragile and trembling in my view.


----------



## Triple B

Will Gold bust through the 1250 mark tonight and stay there? I m seeing higher lows under 1250 after being rejected the first time . strong buying at the moment


----------



## InsvestoBoy

XAUAUD has been doing a good job at moving inversely with the XJO, hedging both AUD weakness and XJO weakness.




If you're running a portfolio including the two, plenty of opportunity here to rebalance.


----------



## greggles

Triple B said:


> Will Gold bust through the 1250 mark tonight and stay there? I m seeing higher lows under 1250 after being rejected the first time . strong buying at the moment




Good call, just a little early. Gold broke through $1,250 on the 17th and looks like it is headed higher, at least as long as the US government is shut down and the market is plunging. It's a perfect storm of political and economic uncertainty at the moment and as usual, traders are turning to gold.


----------



## greggles

Gold in AUD at $1,800 and nearing all-time highs. Still in a long term uptrend despite the volatility. 2019 might be a good year for Australian gold miners with low AISC.


----------



## Ann

This is my ancient quarterly chart again, the POG is still locked below, well below 1325 long term resistance which I find quite remarkable with the markets doing a bit of a down down trick. I really thought this weak market would spur gold up and through the resistance. I am seeing a weak response, certainly well off what I thought the case would be at quarter's end. This is not inspiring me for 2019 as far as gold's direction.


----------



## Ann

Ahh dear, here I am back again to upset everyone. I just looked at the chart for gold with the Aussie dollar and I reckon it is going to bang its head into the long term overhead resistance line of 1821 get concussion and fall down because it is a triple top coming from 2011.  Let's see how it goes. As I like to say, I may be wrong.


----------



## greggles

Ann said:


> I just looked at the chart for gold with the Aussie dollar and I reckon it is going to bang its head into the long term overhead resistance line of 1821 get concussion and fall down because it is a triple top coming from 2011.  Let's see how it goes. As I like to say, I may be wrong.




Hey Ann, it's gone and busted through $1,821 and is now sitting at $1,832.27. If the Aussie dollar keeps sinking, who knows where the AUD gold price could end up this year?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

XAUAUD traded as high as 1902.61 on ICE this morning on AUD flash crash.

Now trading 1878 on that exchange.


----------



## Triple B

With XAU USD climbing strong towards $1300 and AUD/USD probably now stuck Below 0.70


----------



## explod

Aussie Gold hitting $1,860 atm, close to the top now.


----------



## gartley

explod said:


> Aussie Gold hitting $1,860 atm, close to the top now.



I think short term top maybe, but ultimately higher to 2400 based on the measured move of the ascending triangle in play. Gold has further to go over the next 1-2 years.


----------



## Ann

greggles said: ↑
Hey Ann, it's gone and busted through $1,821 and is now sitting at $1,832.27. If the Aussie dollar keeps sinking, who knows where the AUD gold price could end up this year?

As we have all seen now it fell back hard to $1800 after its major effort to break through the $1821 level, may still advance upward but such a solid drop will now see $1821 as a tougher resistance. If the Aussie dollar keeps sinking so to will gold, they appear to hold each others hand.

gartley said: ↑
I think short term top maybe, but ultimately higher to 2400 based on the measured move of the ascending triangle in play. Gold has further to go over the next 1-2 years.
Possibly but at the moment I am just feeling weakness from gold when I should be feeling strength when markets are weak. I am not sure that an ascending triangle will trump a triple top. Let's see!


----------



## explod

The chart here suggests gold will continue its rise.  Fundamentals also support this in my view and is why the markets all over are falling atm.  Of course that fed by financial media I find is often devoid of fundamental substance.  Cannot see our dollar falling much more either as we are one of the growing few countries who are productive, coal, iron ore, wool, meat, grain and gold to name some.


----------



## Ann

explod said:


> The chart here suggests gold will continue its rise.  Fundamentals also support this in my view and is why the markets all over are falling atm.  Of course that fed by financial media I find is often devoid of fundamental substance.  Cannot see our dollar falling much more either as we are one of the growing few countries who are productive, coal, iron ore, wool, meat, grain and gold to name some.




explod, I am not sure looking at an hourly chart will be particularly predictive for a rise or fall. It is the last price before close which is the only real indicator. Anyway I have put up a matching hourly chart to yours and I am just seeing the POG falling as I suggested it would.


----------



## daytradeprofit

gold position map shows a similar sign to what happened in early 2016
http://www.daytrade-profit.com/2019/01/gold-position-map-show-similar-sign-to.html


----------



## explod

Yes, could be right Ann, but the daily still gives me confidence that the rise will continue.  Looks like a move to impeach Trump could be on too and that will put pressure on the US dollar also.  We'll see.


----------



## greggles

I'm a gold bull for now, but I'd be happier if it could break through US$1,3000 and stay above it. It's been a good couple of months for gold but I get the feeling that we're in for some consolidation between US$1,275 and US$1,300. I think the U.S. government shutdown and Trump troubles will keep it above US$1.275 for now.


----------



## Ann

daytradeprofit said:


> gold position map shows a similar sign to what happened in early 2016
> http://www.daytrade-profit.com/2019/01/gold-position-map-show-similar-sign-to.html




Similar to but different from daytradeprofit, I see C looking more like A than B. A and C have a far broader base and a slower rise and fall. B saw a very rapid fall, small base and quick rise.
A chart is easier to see of course.


----------



## Ann

greggles said:


> I'm a gold bull for now, but I'd be happier if it could break through US$1,3000 and stay above it. It's been a good couple of months for gold but I get the feeling that we're in for some consolidation between US$1,275 and US$1,300. I think the U.S. government shutdown and Trump troubles will keep it above US$1.275 for now.




Frankly greggles I am absolutely astounded with all that is going on with Trump and the weak markets that gold is doing so poorly. It should well and truly have broken above the US$1,300 by now. This is the reason I am so very pessimistic about anything stellar happening to the POG. It is all very fascinating to watch.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

When the Fed stops raising rates, I'd expect that the USD is going to drop in value which will give a nice tailwind to the gold price as well.


----------



## Ann

BlindSquirrel said:


> When the Fed stops raising rates, I'd expect that the USD is going to drop in value which will give a nice tailwind to the gold price as well.




My thoughts.... Increased demand for government debt (bonds) price of bonds goes up, rates fall because of greater demand (possibly worried about the markets, safe place for their dosh)...why pay higher interest than you have to. People who want to buy bonds need US$. Greater demand for US$ up she rises. Swings, roundabouts and see-saws, childs play! I maybe wrong folks!


----------



## Ann

I have been pondering the weakness in the gold price. I am thinking it may all come down to supply and demand. When I started watching gold back in about 2004 and then over the years, the biggest impact which seemed to move the gold market was the Indian gold buying season. India accounts or accounted for about 20% to 25% of the gold market second after China. The $US was floundering, the Rupee was falling but clearly cushioned by the low $US. The Rupee is still falling but now the $US is rising and this may be making gold way too expensive for the Indian market, thus pricing gold out of the very important Indian market.  Less demand, weaker prices. 

Then there is the other scenario, the new gold is Palladium. It is also nudging $US 1300 I bet it breaks through $1300 before gold unless Platinum becomes the cheaper substitute. Both Palladium and Platinum are components in EVs unlike gold which is pretty much just a bling thing. You just have to love this stuff! Spins my wheels. 

Here is the chart for the Indian Rupee/USD


----------



## Triple B

Will POG Bust through the $1300 mark tonight.  Just trying to break a 1Hr chart Downtrend R now.
Might be a spike into the 1300s to clean out some short stops , then up we go again?


----------



## Ann

Triple B said:


> Will POG Bust through the $1300 mark tonight.  Just trying to break a 1Hr chart Downtrend R now.
> Might be a spike into the 1300s to clean out some short stops , then up we go again?
> 
> View attachment 91339



Interesting to see Triple B, another eleven and a half hours to closing will tell us! However all the market participants are flying blind as the US shutdown gives them no information about what is happening in the futures market, no COT charts to guide them.


----------



## Ann

Looking at the weekly chart for Aussie gold it appears as though it is trying to break above the all time high overhead resistance line of around $1800 again. If it fails.....?


----------



## BlindSquirrel

it seems to be on a nice little run today. My CFDs hope it continues


----------



## BlindSquirrel

it just dropped down to kiss my trailing stop then bounced back up.

>_<

(I know, I know: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered!)


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> it just dropped down to kiss my trailing stop then bounced back up.
> 
> >_<
> 
> (I know, I know: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered!)




your 'event' highlights the primary reason i dislike and dispromote "trailing" anything

you can be right in directional terms but not price legnth

one way to consider a procedural remedy are 2:
first, reduce the position size (cfd's can be fractional too)
second, with reduced size look for the next stop level
trailing stops are arbitrary stops because they are linear when we think they are dynamic, it's the action of the trail, it's a mechanical stop-come-hit-me linear programm, is antithetic....yadda yadda = not a good idea

another suggestion is to be the trailing stop, that means, you lift the stop as support levels get get built, or put that another way, to say if this 'n' level gets taken out that the implies the move i think is underway is incorrect, that there's something else going on...again, reducing size allows you more probabilities and avoids you being chopped out of the trade too early and then missing getting back (when youre larger pattern/target ideas prove correct), you can play different levels but you need to size accordingly, afterall all sizing if not sized to the risk is arbitrary too....so combined arbitrary sizing with arbitrary trailing or arbitrary static levels = more chop-outs = more damage and less scope for gains

slow day on the $xjo in strong uptrend gives me plenty of time do this page....lots more ideas than this ...and keep in mind this is only ideas on a page and may not suit you....you need to know and be synced to trade ideas as a complete package ....if it fits you, great!


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Thank you.
Logically Gold must increase in value over the next 6-12 months markedly due to macro factors that are likely to eventuate. I'd like to be in on most of it.

As an aside, with respect to support/resistance, now that these prices are at levels not seen in 8 months or so, do the old ones still apply?


----------



## BlindSquirrel

... because I'm looking at a resistance around $1325 from May last year (and several times in April)


----------



## rederob

BlindSquirrel said:


> Logically Gold must increase in value over the next 6-12 months markedly due to macro factors that are likely to eventuate. I'd like to be in on most of it.



Markets don't follow logic.
In price (value?) terms POG in USD peaked September 2011 at USD$1895 (before falling off its perch).
In AUD terms price peaked first week of January 2019 at just over $1840.
The interesting observation was that after the 2008 GFC, gold continued to rise sharply for the next 3 years.  
It does seem that now a lot of the cryptocurrency distractions are behind us, serious investors might be getting back into the safety of gold.
What is promising is that the term of POG consolidation has ripened for another pounce on a new high.  However, until POG definitively crashes through $1350 methinks it's presently premature.


----------



## Joules MM1

for sure, old levels are made for a reason

first ratify what makes either support or resistance rather than  a randomised level, that means, if the levels were visited several time and rotations took place it means traders will look to those same levels or tight zones in which to do business

again, ratify this, by that i mean if we have an old large round number and it gets hit and rejected (bids into heavy selling for example) there is a point when that level loses its meaning because the sense of value of that level is not the same several revisits later and different groups of traders may not be active during the next visit, not always the same players playing the same levels

so if you decide the level of sup/res are an arbitrary technical level due to something like an uptrend line that is not the same as that same level having been a meeting place to do business

then you require, i suggest, the context of previous plays, how easily they were rejected versus how persistant price revisits that level and size of the move that takes you back there...the auction may visit a level and reject it several times as one group of players offloads at or near that level, so you have two groups of liquidity at play and repeat visits to a specific level maybe telling you that one group is becoming dominant so they'll gain strength (followers with liquidity on that side) and the opposing side is switching liquidity or have completed their business therefor completing resistance or support........once a move is completed (within its own context) then it is completed....

keep in mind that anecdotal analysis or fundamental analysis is rarely if ever insync with price direction at the time you think it should be......rarely in sync with a specific price level and/or price width/length .....you cannot correctly assign, in my humble opinion, fundamental ideas to the immediacy of liquidity washing around in the auction






BlindSquirrel said:


> ... because I'm looking at a resistance around $1325 from May last year (and several times in April)


----------



## Joules MM1

when banks are packing in the bars it's usually a bad sign for the bulls, more of this occurs at tops than bottoms

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...586f&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

COMMODITIES
JANUARY 31, 2019 / 4:05 PM / UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO
*Central banks bought more gold in 2018 than any year since 1967: WGC*


----------



## explod

Joules MM1 said:


> when banks are packing in the bars it's usually a bad sign for the bulls, more of this occurs at tops than bottoms
> 
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...586f&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
> 
> COMMODITIES
> JANUARY 31, 2019 / 4:05 PM / UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO
> *Central banks bought more gold in 2018 than any year since 1967: WGC*



Find that hard to understand Joules, the largest buying in the last three or four years has been from what were third world countries, China and India in particular and their goal to move away from the US dollar which is struggling to maintain equity due to the US overwhelming debt.  The current width of the financial world is very different from the past

Interested in your rationale for it being a bad sign for bulls.


----------



## Joules MM1

explod said:


> Find that hard to understand Joules, the largest buying in the last three or four years has been from what were third world countries, China and India in particular and their goal to move away from the US dollar which is struggling to maintain equity due to the US overwhelming debt.  The current width of the financial world is very different from the past
> 
> Interested in your rationale for it being a bad sign for bulls.




of course in the last hike into aug/sep 2011 banks were some of the biggest buyers, in 2001 banks were some of the biggest sellers

consider banks as buyers of last resort, much like governments....size matters

after the massive decline in % terms where are the bears?

bulls dont be bullish at lows....that doesnt mean we wont go a lot higher in price, but, higher prices does not mean new altime highs......in 2000 i was in a chat room in commsec and asked the question who's buying gold.....i was asked who would bother ....300$'s .....yeah, who would bother

reuters run a regular live blog on gold ......what were they observing in 2000 ? nasdaq, which soon lost 78%


----------



## rederob

Joules MM1 said:


> n 2000 i was in a chat room in commsec and asked the question who's buying gold.....i was asked who would bother ....300$'s .....yeah, who would bother
> reuters run a regular live blog on gold ......what were they observing in 2000 ? nasdaq, which soon lost 78%



There was a long lull in POG from its high in 1996 until breaching it again in 2004 at around $420.
Not many would have entered gold in 2000 because it was still trending down.
POG dipped below $300 in late 1997 and aside from an extremely brief spike above $300 in January 2000 (lasting mere days), it was another 2 years before $300 was again breached.
This thread picks up where gold was in 2004 when it broke through 8 years of resistance.
If you ascribe to lessons in the past being helpful, then there might be something in it hat makes a lot of sense.
The bit which I do not think has changed is that gold remains a store of value.  The other bit is that POG is inextricably linked to the vagaries of the USD, albeit not always in short term movements.


----------



## Joules MM1

there is no endogenous benchmark for the supply and demand of PM's only the perception of value

that's what drives the price up and down in both dollar absolute and dollar adjusted terms

banks are the fundamental marker that a swing is in the latter stages of their actions
if theyre persistent bullish/buyers the uptrend is peaking (relatively) and if they've dumped or are dumping that trend is all but done too.....

the current action on a monthly basis is  mid-section of a larger downtrend
the current action on daily basis is already involving constant positive postings on social media and the media itself carrying positive biased stories, non of which is typical of a trend recovery

the more cryptos declined the more defensive the late comers became....and now....tumble weed
the more gold declined the more ardent bulls argued its rise, it has a bounce and suddenly a lot of happy chatters.....the real bottom of a gold bear is usually very painful for the bulls and they remain quiet intil the next bull phase is so obvious they cannot

in the 1990's what companies were set-up to store gold? what derivatives were being traded? very few compared to today


rederob said:


> There was a long lull in POG from its high in 1996 until breaching it again in 2004 at around $420.
> Not many would have entered gold in 2000 because it was still trending down.
> POG dipped below $300 in late 1997 and aside from an extremely brief spike above $300 in January 2000 (lasting mere days), it was another 2 years before $300 was again breached.
> 
> 
> This thread picks up where gold was in 2004 when it broke through 8 years of resistance.
> If you ascribe to lessons in the past being helpful, then there might be something in it hat makes a lot of sense.
> The bit which I do not think has changed is that gold remains a store of value.  The other bit is that POG is inextricably linked to the vagaries of the USD, albeit not always in short term movements.




"Not many would have entered gold in 2000 because it was still trending down"
you can also ascribe to: no one is bearish in a gold uptrend, no one is selling because it is still trending up

"The bit which I do not think has changed is that gold remains a store of value."
you can also ascribe to: gold has no value which is why it went down to 300 in 2000 as people did not think it was a store of value

it is is merely logic describing other players in the market (on either side of the trade) and there is no emotive logic involved


----------



## Joules MM1

scratch that post ....most of it was written last night and i forgot the page saves the scrip...i should stay out of emotive laden threads...learning curve....back to the show...


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Joules MM1 said:


> for sure, old levels are made for a reason



That just happened. The line I noticed at 1325 from early last year was reached again last night.


----------



## rederob

Joules MM1 said:


> there is no endogenous benchmark for the supply and demand of PM's only the perception of value
> that's what drives the price up and down in both dollar absolute and dollar adjusted terms



Your ideas are not reflected in the real world.
When I was bullish on POG 15 years ago it was purely on fundamentals.  The metric of AISC was not around back then.  However the reality for Australian producers was that it was costing more and more to get gold out of the ground, and the trend was going to get worse (and it did).  Newcrest, which took out 2.3moz in FY2018 had an AISC of $835, and this was lowered by the exceptionally low AISC of $171 at their Cadia site.
Next, you should look at palladium and platinum which derive fundamental price shifts from use in vehicle emission systems.


Joules MM1 said:


> it is is merely logic describing other players in the market (on either side of the trade) and there is no emotive logic involved



In logic, that is a trivial sense.
The market has investors and traders, not mutually exclusive.  Central banks continue to hold gold reserves because like it or not, their is a perception the value of their gold cannot be diminished.  That is not the case with fiat currency.
You look at POG from a trading perspective which is fine.  I look at what is likely to carry it in a particular direction over the longer term, and I am here talking many years out.
Our paths don't really cross.


----------



## noirua

*How gold could make a big comeback*
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/how-gold-could-make-big-comeback-ii507607


----------



## BlindSquirrel

a support looks to be around 1317. When the price smashed through 1315 on wednesday, it has since bounced off 1317.5 or so 3 times, including just now.
Last time it looked like taking note of this level was May last year.

I think I'm starting to get the hang of this... now watch me lose it all!

Long term I'm bullish on gold as well due to hearing from and reading Jim Rickards. Jesse Felder was also on TIP recently with good things to say about gold and gold miners (such as Newmont).


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> Your ideas are not reflected in the real world.
> When I was bullish on POG 15 years ago it was purely on fundamentals.  The metric of AISC was not around back then.  However the reality for Australian producers was that it was costing more and more to get gold out of the ground, and the trend was going to get worse (and it did).  Newcrest, which took out 2.3moz in FY2018 had an AISC of $835, and this was lowered by the exceptionally low AISC of $171 at their Cadia site.
> Next, you should look at palladium and platinum which derive fundamental price shifts from use in vehicle emission systems.
> 
> In logic, that is a trivial sense.
> The market has investors and traders, not mutually exclusive.  Central banks continue to hold gold reserves because like it or not, their is a perception the value of their gold cannot be diminished.  That is not the case with fiat currency.
> You look at POG from a trading perspective which is fine.  I look at what is likely to carry it in a particular direction over the longer term, and I am here talking many years out.
> Our paths don't really cross.



Very well put Rederob, it's been a solid form and source of security for 5,000 years and in times of growing financial stress it will only bump along in an upwards direction.


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> Very well put Rederob, it's been a solid form and source of security for 5,000 years and in times of growing financial stress it will only bump along in an upwards direction.



That's what central banks think, as well:
31 January, 2019
*Annual gold demand gained 4% on highest central bank buying in 50 years*
Gold demand in 2018 reached 4,345.1t, up from 4,159.9t in 2017 and in line with the five-year average of 4,347.5t. A multi-decade high in central bank buying (651.5t) drove growth. Demand was bumped up in Q4 by 112.4t of ETF inflows, but annual inflows into these products (of 68.9t) were 67% lower than 2017. Investment in bars and coins accelerated in the second half of the year, up 4% to 1,090.2t in 2018. Full year jewellery demand was steady at 2,200t. Gold used in technology climbed marginally to 334.6t in 2018, although growth ran out of steam in Q4. Annual gold supply firmed slightly to 4,490.2t, with mine production inching up to a new high of 3,364.9t.
*4% growth in annual gold demand driven by highest central bank buying in 50 years*​


----------



## ducati916

Another good reason for gold:

The downsides of digital security.  From CoinDesk:

Troubled Canadian crypto exchange QuadrigaCX owes its customers $190 million and cannot access most of the funds, according to a court filing obtained by CoinDesk.

The problem:  The exchange kept its digital ducats in a so-called cold wallet, which is not connected to the internet and accessible only by private key. Following the death of co-founder Gerald Cotton, investors were left with no way to access their cryptos. 

In a sworn affidavit filed Jan. 31 with the Nova Scotia Supreme Court, Jennifer Robertson, identified as the widow of QuadrigaCX co-founder Gerald Cotten, said the exchange owes its customers roughly $250 million CAD ($190 million) in both cryptocurrency and fiat. 

She later added that she has no business records whatsoever for QuadrigaCX or its affiliated companies. While she does have Cotten’s laptop, the device is encrypted, and she does not have its password or recovery key. While a consultant has been retained to try and recover the laptop’s contents, he has had limited success to date.

jog on
duc


----------



## BlindSquirrel

ducati916 said:


> While she does have Cotten’s laptop, the device is encrypted, and she does not have its password or recovery key.


----------



## Ann

I was wondering why the central banks have been buying gold. Here is one article as to why. Maybe they are concerned with worldwide inflation? Dunno, just musing. I will put up a chart for Aussie gold price a bit later hopefully.

*Some Central Banks Have Gold Fever, and It Might Be Sensible*
_
Gold bugs aren’t always rational. That’s not the case for central banks, whose purchases of the yellow metal last year were the highest since the United States broke the link between gold and the dollar in 1971. For these institutions, it’s less a short-term gamble that prices of the precious commodity will rise, and more a concern that dollar dominance could gradually be eroded.

Central banks bought 651.5 tonnes of gold in 2018, the second highest annual total on record and up 74 percent from the year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. As in the past three years, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkey were significant buyers, but were last year joined by the likes of Hungary, India and Poland._


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I was so sure that it had broken through the 1315 resistance last night.

Damned hubris got me again.
All morning it's been shrugging off my stops that have been just past the 1305 levels before reversing. I'm out for a bit I think.


----------



## explod

The Aussie gold price breaking into all time high territory.  Should soon impact Aussie gold stocks:-

"


----------



## rederob

explod said:


> The Aussie gold price breaking into all time high territory.  Should soon impact Aussie gold stocks



Always best to check how each stock is "exposed" to such price movements.
I hold a few goldies, so checked RMS and was not overly impressed.  Deep down at page 96 of their Annual Report is their sensitivity analysis.  Unfortunately about 75% of this year's output is forward sold at AUD$1719/oz, so that's potentially around AUD$15m down the gurgler over the financial year.
Cannot really complain as at the time it was forward sold, it was a good price.
Anyhow, as is seen from RMS, there are quite a few factors which can impact profitability from goldies, so don't blindly assume that strong rises in POG will be reflected in a producer's share price.


----------



## explod

Do not disagree rederob.  Posted on the MOY thread here at the same time.  MOY have sold forward also but will not have a lot of effect in the bigger scheme IMV


----------



## BlindSquirrel

well that was a rollercoaster ride overnight! I had two CFD positions open offsetting each other and the first limit got hit near the top then the second got hit near the bottom - all while I was asleep! 
This brings me back to break even after my last snafu!

I'm only playing with $100 while I'm learning.


----------



## greggles

Gold consolidating nicely above US$1,300 and finding good support at US$1,304. I expect it will continue to consolidate in this area until a catalyst causes it to break out of its current range. 

There is still a lot of geopolitical uncertainty out there and tensions with Russia and China remain high. My feeling is any strong move with be to the upside.

Time will tell.


----------



## Ann

rederob said:


> Always best to check how each stock is "exposed" to such price movements.
> I hold a few goldies, so checked RMS and was not overly impressed.  Deep down at page 96 of their Annual Report is their sensitivity analysis.  Unfortunately about 75% of this year's output is forward sold at AUD$1719/oz, so that's potentially around AUD$15m down the gurgler over the financial year.
> Cannot really complain as at the time it was forward sold, it was a good price.
> Anyhow, as is seen from RMS, there are quite a few factors which can impact profitability from goldies, so don't blindly assume that strong rises in POG will be reflected in a producer's share price.




Thanks Rob, this is really interesting stuff I remember you talking about it many years back. Sadly again your link to 'RMS' didn't work for me, could I trouble you to repeat it please?

Could this forward selling also be the case for some of the oilers as well?


----------



## greggles

Gold's golden run continues and its V-shaped recovery from its September lows is now very clear on a longer term chart.

US$1,350 is gold's next challenge and it's a big one. A break above that level would be very bullish. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. There's still US$24 to go before we're there. Anything can happen between now and then, but I remain a gold bull.


----------



## rederob

Ann said:


> your link to 'RMS' didn't work for me, could I trouble you to repeat it please?



https://www.rameliusresources.com.a...MELIUS-2018-ANNUAL-REPORT-LOW-RES-8.11.18.pdf


greggles said:


> US$1,350 is gold's next challenge and it's a big one. A break above that level would be very bullish. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. There's still US$24 to go before we're there. Anything can happen between now and then, but I remain a gold bull.



Usually a high US dollar and low gold price go together.  That was not the theme last week, nor this... so far....  That, to me, is a very positive sign that POG will run well above 2018 highs, and carry through a bull run for several years - with the usual blips (or dips).
So I am tipping POG to breach $1500 this year with my usual certainty (ie. there is no such thing).


----------



## Miner

rederob said:


> https://www.rameliusresources.com.a...MELIUS-2018-ANNUAL-REPORT-LOW-RES-8.11.18.pdf
> 
> Usually a high US dollar and low gold price go together.  That was not the theme last week, nor this... so far....  That, to me, is a very positive sign that POG will run well above 2018 highs, and carry through a bull run for several years - with the usual blips (or dips).
> So I am tipping POG to bre*ach $1500 this year with my usual certainty (ie. there is no such thing).*




With gold price going to breach $1500 I will tell my wife to make her jewelleries in this week itself with her flying to India tomorrow. Hope the breach does not happen in this week


----------



## BlindSquirrel

$1500...




Perhaps I should stop faffing around chasing pips...


----------



## rederob

Miner said:


> With gold price going to breach $1500 I will tell my wife to make her jewelleries in this week itself with her flying to India tomorrow. Hope the breach does not happen in this week



Nice overnight lift in POG - up some US$22 to $1340, which places it within a whisker of its $1350 breakout level.
In AUD terms POG at $1870 is blasting above its all time high of a fortnight ago around the $1850 mark.
Let's see how much follow through there is before breaking for drinks.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

wheeee!

Currently 1346USD/oz. Probably about due for a breather (nojinx nojinx nojinx)


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> In AUD terms POG at $1870 is blasting above its all time high of a fortnight ago around the $1850 mark.
> Let's see how much follow through there is before breaking for drinks.



6 hours later and another AUD$8 added - to $1878.
And up US$6 to $1346.
Am looking for a reason, but cannot find any....
Anyone else with a clue?


----------



## BlindSquirrel

BlindSquirrel said:


> (nojinx nojinx nojinx)




Dammit. I got out with a small profit on the pull back. I hope to catch the next pop.


----------



## Ann

rederob said:


> 6 hours later and another AUD$8 added - to $1878.
> And up US$6 to $1346.
> Am looking for a reason, but cannot find any....
> Anyone else with a clue?



Just my thoughts Rob, the Aussie dollar normally rises when gold rises and that tends to take the edge off the APOG (gold priced in Aussie $). I am thinking the A$ is falling because there may be a threat of an interest rate fall to stimulate the falling property problem in the near future.  I may be wrong, I am not an economist, try as I might!


----------



## rederob

Ann said:


> Just my thoughts Rob, the Aussie dollar normally rises when gold rises and that tends to take the edge off the APOG (gold priced in Aussie $). I am thinking the A$ is falling because there may be a threat of an interest rate fall to stimulate the falling property problem in the near future.  I may be wrong, I am not an economist, try as I might!



Yes, there are definitely movements due to exchange rates.
However, I look for things which are atypical, and this week is delivering in spades.
AUD$1880 breached as I type, while POG in USD has dropped $10 since I last posted.  It's one thing to head in different directions, and it's quite another when the the divergence is so pronounced.


----------



## Ann

rederob said:


> Yes, there are definitely movements due to exchange rates.
> However, I look for things which are atypical, and this week is delivering in spades.
> AUD$1880 breached as I type, while POG in USD has dropped $10 since I last posted.  It's one thing to head in different directions, and it's quite another when the the divergence is so pronounced.



It is basically a currency thing, Brexit is going to chuck a lot of unusual movement into things. It is going to really stuff around with the currency hedge funds plus flow on. If there are computer generated trading platforms programmed for a certain style, I can see them having seizures as there will be no human discretion. It is all a bit of fun. I just hang on whatever the next economic data brings on.


----------



## rederob

Ann said:


> It is basically a currency thing, Brexit is going to chuck a lot of unusual movement into things. It is going to really stuff around with the currency hedge funds plus flow on. If there are computer generated trading platforms programmed for a certain style, I can see them having seizures as there will be no human discretion. It is all a bit of fun. I just hang on whatever the next economic data brings on.



I doubt Brexit makes any real difference to POG.  It has been an ongoing issue for some time and whatever volatility it is causing or has caused will be insignificant.


----------



## explod

Basically the rise in gold amounts to the overall economic uncertainty atm and an increasing percentage of people buying gold to back up their portfolios.

Only have to scan today's paper to see things are getting worse atm, so in my view gold will just keep going up.  Think there could be a bit of drop and consolidation in the next few days, but will be short lived IMV as word is spreading.


----------



## Ann

explod said:


> Basically the rise in gold amounts to the overall economic uncertainty atm and an increasing percentage of people buying gold to back up their portfolios.
> 
> Only have to scan today's paper to see things are getting worse atm, so in my view gold will just keep going up.  Think there could be a bit of drop and consolidation in the next few days, but will be short lived IMV as word is spreading.




With all of gold's machinations I always refer back to my ancient quarterly POG that I have been watching since 2012. Currently is not in a complete period, that will happen at the end of March but so far it is still pretty much under the spell of the now looong term overhead resistance. So as much as everyone gets excited by gold, it is still 'meh' by my charts.


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> the Aussie dollar normally rises when gold rises and that tends to take the edge off the APOG (gold priced in Aussie $). I am thinking the A$ is falling because there may be a threat of an interest rate fall to stimulate the falling property problem in the near future.  I may be wrong, I am not an economist




The Aussie dollar fell in response to China banning our coal.


----------



## rederob

Ann said:


> With all of gold's machinations I always refer back to my ancient quarterly POG that I have been watching since 2012. Currently is not in a complete period, that will happen at the end of March but so far it is still pretty much under the spell of the now looong term overhead resistance. So as much as everyone gets excited by gold, it is still 'meh' by my charts.



That's fine if you work on such long time frames.
The signal for POG's present run north came on 11 October last year, and was reconfirmed on 20 December.
Translating that into buying local shares - as distinct from trading gold per se - could have led, for example, to about a 50% increase in price on a stock like RMS.
I dare say there are others, but that was my first look see.


----------



## Porper

rederob said:


> Translating that into buying local shares - as distinct from trading gold per se - could have led, for example, to about a 50% increase in price on a stock like RMS.
> I dare say there are others, but that was my first look see.




That's true, however this assumes you buy at the bottom and sell at the top. In the real world this doesn't happen...unless you get very lucky.


----------



## rederob

Porper said:


> That's true, however this assumes you buy at the bottom and sell at the top. In the real world this doesn't happen...unless you get very lucky.



Not really, as I was making the distinction between clear signals in the gold price and mapping that back into an equity.
Had I looked at NCM and bought in on the 20 December gold price signal it would have been 10% higher than lows of several months earlier.  In fact NCM's chart alone has been signalling that gold is in a strong uptrend - notice the regular upside "gaps" in price since last October.
Further, the trend in gold would (or more probably "will"), in my view, tend to run for several years so I don't see any need to sell gold equities for a good while.


----------



## Porper

rederob said:


> Not really, as I was making the distinction between clear signals in the gold price and mapping that back into an equity.
> Had I looked at NCM and bought in on the 20 December gold price signal it would have been 10% higher than lows of several months earlier.  In fact NCM's chart alone has been signalling that gold is in a strong uptrend - notice the regular upside "gaps" in price since last October.
> Further, the trend in gold would (or more probably "will"), in my view, tend to run for several years so I don't see any need to sell gold equities for a good while.




I focus on the XGD chart but more importantly the charts of the individual stocks themselves.

Disclosure: I hold NCM

I was stopped out of EVN yesterday but nowhere near a 50% gain unfortunately.


----------



## Ann

...and now a chart of the $XGD for all the gold bugs out there. There is a fully formed cup and handle pattern, just for fun I have done a swing trade calculation and it looks like the top will be around 8300 if it works out. It also appears it will be a triple top from back in April 2011 and November 2010, if it makes that level.


----------



## rederob

Porper said:


> I focus on the XGD chart but more importantly the charts of the individual stocks themselves.
> Disclosure: I hold NCM
> I was stopped out of EVN yesterday but nowhere near a 50% gain unfortunately.



I don't like aggregators - my preference - as they hide too many sins.
The other issue with equities is that often the market runs blind on them until they report something significant.
I prefer the approach of looking at what *drives *the price of an equity as irrespective of any news, the equity's results are going to be largely predicated on that action.
AMI is a case in point.  Its chart bears only a slight resemblance to the XGD chart.   In fact, if I were to use XGD to guide an entry into AMI it would have actually signalled strong caution rather than a buy signal.


----------



## explod

There is bit in the following article but it provides good background on gold and to support the writers take.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/g...ault.aspx?mc_cid=768156b435&mc_eid=a09377a6d7


----------



## Ann

I have no idea if this is just pure bullsh!t or if there is something to it. This site tends to pick up on stuff very early and then eventually it is proven to be correct. However past successes are not future proof, so I just present it as simply a point of interest and will not enter into any discussion about its merits or not.

_*What's Up With Australia's 80 Tonnes Of Gold At The Bank Of England?*
......................
*1) What happened to Australia’s gold? What’s your opinion?*

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) claims to have 80 tonnes of gold bars stored in a bailment arrangement, in an allocated gold account, at the Bank of England vaults in London. Bailment means the Bank of England is custodian, and the RBA owns and has title to specific serial numbered gold bars.


However, there have never been any independent physical audits of this gold, which means that there is no way to verify the RBA’s claim that it has all the gold that it claims to have.


In 2013, the Bank of England allowed the RBA to do a partial audit of some of  the claimed RBA gold holdings, but the results of this audit remain secret, and even after FOIA requests, the documents from this audit were blocked by both the Bank of England and the RBA and never released. This also raises a red flag....................................more_


----------



## CanOz

GOLD is going to 1400 as long as it can defend 1320.....Yup i'm finally a gold bull.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

where the heck has all of the volume in the gold market gone today?



There has been a few wild swings this morning!


----------



## Ann

*All Globex Futures Trading Is Halted, CME "Aware"*


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Thanks!


----------



## thomasc

What is the best way to invest in gold for say the next 5 years. Would it be physical, paper or just some gold stocks on the ASX?


----------



## Ann

thomasc said:


> What is the best way to invest in gold for say the next 5 years. Would it be physical, paper or just some gold stocks on the ASX?





I would be tempted to buy stocks. There is a bit of gold stocks take-over action happening in the US at the moment so you might get lucky and choose a T/O target. Just my thoughts.


----------



## Ann

*Barrick, Newmont behemoth could shuffle Aussie gold decks*
_
The Super Pit gold mine in Kalgoorlie and giant Boddington mine in the South West could be shuffled into the hands of Australian owners if Barrick Gold succeeds in winning over Newmont Mining shareholders to its hostile $US18 billion ($25.1 billion) takeover tilt.

Barrick Gold is chasing Newmont via a stock deal that would create a combined behemoth worth about $US42 billion.

Barrick chief executive Mark Bristow said the Canadian group had already had “many discussions with interested parties” over Australian mines that could be cast off by the combined group if the all-share bid for Newmont is successful.

“There’s a very good chance some Australian operators will be involved and what I can tell you is there are some very good Australian operators,” Mr Bristow told Bloomberg. More..._


----------



## Zaxon

thomasc said:


> What is the best way to invest in gold for say the next 5 years. Would it be physical, paper or just some gold stocks on the ASX?




It depends on what your needs are.  If you're buying gold as a safety hedge, then buying a gold ETF makes sense.  If you're wanting to buy gold mostly for profit, then definitely gold stocks.  And if you have a bunker where you keep 3 years worth of tinned food and a shotgun, then physical gold


----------



## Ann

This is interesting, I wonder if it is true in Australia? I know when I sell gold to a dealer I have to show my drivers license and give my name and address which he puts in his register and I have to also sign that the gold belongs to me.

"You can purchase unlimited amounts of gold bullion from established dealers without triggering transaction reports, and the bullion can be used in many circumstances as a substitute for U.S. dollars or other currencies."


----------



## Ann

Looking at the incomplete quarterly chart, gold failed to break above $1325 yet again this month, it has had a massive drop today the first day of the new month.


----------



## $20shoes

I know at least one Elliotician who has the entire structure for Gold futures from July 2016 to now as an Elliott Triangle which is the entirety of a larger degree Wave B. Withing that triangle, Wave E of the triangle has failed to reach its upper trendline (last week) which is typical, so there's further weight that this structure is valid.

If valid the probable count is Wave a as having concluded in December 2015.
Wave b concluded last week.
Wave c would be bearish in 5 waves across the next 2-4 years with significant downside


----------



## $20shoes

$20shoes said:


> I know at least one Elliotician who has the entire structure for Gold futures from July 2016 to now as an Elliott Triangle which is the entirety of a larger degree Wave B. Withing that triangle, Wave E of the triangle has failed to reach its upper trendline (last week) which is typical, so there's further weight that this structure is valid.
> 
> If valid the probable count is Wave a as having concluded in December 2015.
> Wave b concluded last week.
> Wave c would be bearish in 5 waves across the next 2-4 years with significant downside




Note that I can see a couple of different unfolding scenarios, so the count described below is not of course a foregone conclusion.


----------



## Ann

As I see it, gold and the stockmarket sit on top of a see-saw. If the market keeps moving in an upward trajectory gold will move in the opposite direction. When gold fell on the last trading day, that was when the SPX500 broke above an important resistance level of 2800. The next main resistance line it will come to is 2950. This may see a positive rise from gold at this point if the SPX500 struggles or falls back at this level. I watch the DOW more than the SPX500 and its next challenge level is 27,000. This will be coming up a little while before the SPX500 level. The DOW stepped over the 200daysma quite easily, lets see if it does the same with its all time high price resistance. If it does then the SPX500 will be dragged along in my opinion. That would likely see the POG fall away to lower levels.

Now on a more positive note, I thought the Aussie gold investors might like to see a long term 15 year quarterly chart for gold in Aussie dollars. Any way you want to draw it, it is upward trending at a nice angle.


----------



## rederob

Gold was trashed in the past week and a bit, dropping some USD$55, and AUD$60.
However, on the last trading day this week it did what it has done time and again over the past 6 months, and that is bounce back strongly.
The odd thing again is the AUD vs USD disparity.  This time the USD rise was $14.55 (closing at $1298.35), while the AUD rise was the lesser at $11.18 (closing at $1841.89).
We are a long way to $1350 so any break is again likely weeks away at best.
Gold takes the stairs up, and elevator down, so anyone looking for quick profits in equities might need to rethink their strategy.


----------



## Ann

*Hedge Funds Dumped Gold Bets Before Jobs Data Sparked Rally*

_Investors dumped their bullion holdings as the metal flirted with erasing its 2019 advance. But the move could prove to be premature. On Friday, prices got a jolt after a report showed U.S. hiring in February was the weakest in more than a year. The news helped gold push back above $1,300 an ounce amid renewed demand for a haven. More..._



Here is a six month daily chart of the $XGD Gold Index. It is sitting well above the 200dsma and it is just below the 50dsma. It has bounced off a long term (2008) support/resistance line. It will be interesting to see if it overcomes the 50dsma, it may herald further rises for goldies or it may get to the 6100 level, call it a double top and fall back. Interesting to watch.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

XAUUSD marching higher again. Here's hoping we've said goodbye to 12-- numbers for good! 
(no jinx!)


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> XAUUSD marching higher again. Here's hoping we've said goodbye to 12-- numbers for good!
> (no jinx!)




"forever, nothing moves in one direction"

said trader yoda


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> XAUUSD marching higher again. Here's hoping we've said goodbye to 12-- numbers for good!
> (no jinx!)




are you trading a synthetic, a cfd ?


----------



## Joules MM1

for the front month contract

there's a measure at 1300's, makes sense to go and spruik weak longs that'll place stops at that level but neither major PM's have posted a basic 50% retrace (upwards) of the recent downswing

i think the tell of what that 1300 level means is in the rotation, if any, if there's no clear bid then that'll support the idea we're back on our way below

#ideasonascreen #justasuggestion


----------



## barney

BlindSquirrel said:


> XAUUSD marching higher again. Here's hoping we've said goodbye to 12-- numbers for good!
> *(no jinx!)*




Lol  …. You jinxed it Squirrel ….. JK   (I think Gold will have its day in the sun later this year but not quite yet)

I hold a couple of Gold Stocks for (hopefully) longer term gain … but the Futs look to be in limbo land for a bit longer just yet ………. 

So my "expert"  opinion is …….Gold will either go up a bit … or down a bit (possibly a it more than it goes up  … in the short term)

I could probably sell that kind of analysis for a lot of money


----------



## BlindSquirrel

welp... so much for that! Seems to be a nice pennant forming


----------



## BlindSquirrel

... So who wants to subscribe to an Inverse-BlindSquirrel index?? 
The pennant has broken out on the wrong side so I won't be taking the short side on that one for now.


----------



## explod

Good consolidation in my view, overall trend is up, US Economists want a lower US dollar for trade which pumps gold up.  We'll see:-


----------



## Joules MM1

http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2019/03/22/gold-short-candles-signal-weakness/

#ColinTwiggs


----------



## Ann

Trotting out my now ancient quarterly chart for Gold, it has failed the $1325 yet again for the 23rd quarter from September 2013. This is going to make the POG a touch weaker I should think, if the past is any indication.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

It has to test the $1300 to $1375 area. That will be the 3d attempt for gold to break out of its strong resistance.


----------



## rederob

MARKETWINNER said:


> It has to test the $1300 to $1375 area. That will be the 3d attempt for gold to break out of its strong resistance.



A $75 range is *not* a breakout.
Until $1350 is breached, gold will keep meandering through a series of higher lows.


----------



## explod

Gold has seen higher lows continue since October last year and looks overall bullish in my view.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

rederob said:


> A $75 range is *not* a breakout.
> Until $1350 is breached, gold will keep meandering through a series of higher lows.



Hi Readeob: Thank you for the kind response. Trading below $1300 again.


----------



## Ann

I read how Russia and China are lifting their gold reserves for whatever reason. Naturally the gold bug sites are saying it is their distrust of the US Fiat which is the cause. Might be but it might also be that both of these countries are expecting something to happen to their own currencies. Don't know just musing, could be completely off the mark.
When I went to check on how much they had actually increased their holdings by, I looked down the list of countries and what each were holding in Tonnes. What left me shocked was Canada, it has gone from 46.2 tonnes to 0.... zero .....nada! What does this mean? One wonders if they will simply requisition gold from their miners if they need it? I have nooo idea. It is an interesting mystery worth watching IMO.  

Hopefully this will link to the site where I got the Gold Reserves.


----------



## barney

Ann said:


> Canada, it has gone from 46.2 tonnes to 0.... *zero* .....nada!




Didn't know that …. quite amazing.

I guess the Canadian Government figure they can simply slip up to the Yukong with a bucket and spade and dig a few thousand ounces up whenever they need them


----------



## Ann

barney said:


> Didn't know that …. quite amazing.
> 
> I guess the Canadian Government figure they can simply slip up to the Yukong with a bucket and spade and dig a few thousand ounces up whenever they need them




I find it amazing and I haven't read a word about it. I know there are some funds including Steve Eisman, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, a protagonist in Michael Lewis’ The Big Short are shorting Canada at the moment.
(Lewis' Big Short is a great book, can recommend it.)
More likely they will go to Barrick Gold in Toronto and say "sorry fellas we need all your gold, hand it over!"


----------



## Joules MM1

lulz, the final sentence...... 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...its-gold--and-china-isnt-20160318-gnlo6g.html


----------



## Ann

OMG I am so glad I am just a simple know-nothing prat.....WTF! I need a ROFL on the floor emote.

_Canada's explanation for the sell-off is reasonable enough: actual bullion bars cannot be liquidated as easily as, say, government bonds. And over the long term, central banks and governments have generally gotten a better return by investing in safe assets such as US Treasuries._


Joules MM1 said:


> lulz, the final sentence......





Say after me.....FIAT ROCKS!


----------



## Ann

Joules MM1 said:


> lulz, the final sentence......
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...its-gold--and-china-isnt-20160318-gnlo6g.html






Ann said:


> OMG I am so glad I am just a simple know-nothing prat.....WTF! I need a ROFL on the floor emote.
> 
> _Canada's explanation for the sell-off is reasonable enough: actual bullion bars cannot be liquidated as easily as, say, government bonds. And over the long term, central banks and governments have generally gotten a better return by investing in safe assets such as US Treasuries._
> 
> Say after me.....FIAT ROCKS!




OK, let's try this post again. I was being totally sarcastic which translates poorly online and did not add value to this thread.

That was a brilliant find Joules, well done!

I am not an economist and may not have this quite right but as I see it gold is like a net tangible asset backing for a country. A country may have enormous Gross assets such as gold, oil, minerals in the ground but these are not realized, so of little value. Gold bullion is a real and tangible asset. It is a kind of guarantee against their fiat currency that regardless of the movement of their fiat currency, gold will have a fixed value or perhaps I should say a 'knowable value' at any given time.

What Canada has done is swap a tangible asset for debt. US debt to be exact. Now Canada's fiat currency is being backed by another fiat currency. The debt will vary in value over time and will not be an easy 'asset' to asses. However the comment made....
_"actual bullion bars cannot be liquidated as easily as, say, government bonds." ......_begs the question_, _why do they _need _to liquidate their gold? 

The only advantage I could see for Canada on the short term is an income stream of dividends. Surely they can't be that broke they would need a bit of debt interest? 

The quote finishes by saying "_And over the long term, central banks and governments have generally gotten a better return by investing in safe assets such as US Treasuries."
_
So are they saying gold is not a 'safe asset'! Barrick Gold and Kitco are both Canadian companies and may have given the Canadian government some inside information about the demise of gold? Who knows? Well someone does but it isn't me.

It is all so very interesting.


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> lulz, the final sentence...…




LOL ….. Kind of good that a Commentator would be prepared to write that just the same …… 

Don't know him … don't follow him, but respect just he same


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Ann said:


> I read how Russia and China are lifting their gold reserves for whatever reason. Naturally the gold bug sites are saying it is their distrust of the US Fiat which is the cause. Might be but it might also be that both of these countries are expecting something to happen to their own currencies. Don't know just musing, could be completely off the mark.
> When I went to check on how much they had actually increased their holdings by, I looked down the list of countries and what each were holding in Tonnes. What left me shocked was Canada, it has gone from 46.2 tonnes to 0.... zero .....nada! What does this mean? One wonders if they will simply requisition gold from their miners if they need it? I have nooo idea. It is an interesting mystery worth watching IMO.
> 
> Hopefully this will link to the site where I got the Gold Reserves.




According to analysts there is no real reason to hold gold as an asset for any modern nation and keeping gold is just tradition. Half of those reserves were sold by 1985, and then almost all the rest were sold through the 1990s up to 2002. By 2017, Canada’s reserves were down to just three tonnes. They say there are better assets to focus on, and this move has been called “wise and astute” by analysts.

Canada is not alone. There are countries with zero GOLD. Analysts were talking about gold is going to $500 & $300.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...l-off-its-gold-reserves-to-the-retail-market/


----------



## Ann

MARKETWINNER said:


> Analysts were talking about gold is going to $500 & $300.



I hadn't seen that MW, who and when were saying that? I have only ever seen it as being classed as a 'safe haven' and part of a 'balanced portfolio' of investments.
I may sound like I am interrogating you like a gold bug but my feelings are that commodities in general will fall. I only have charts to suggest that to me so may be quite wrong. However your comments were very interesting. I have seen gold rise when markets fall. I am wondering if there will be a disconnect from gold and if so I wonder what is likely to take its place? There always needs to be a viable option for a market fall investment to hop into. Government bonds are one way but historically it has been gold.


----------



## rederob

MARKETWINNER said:


> According to analysts there is no real reason to hold gold as an asset for any modern nation and keeping gold is just tradition. Half of those reserves were sold by 1985, and then almost all the rest were sold through the 1990s up to 2002. By 2017, Canada’s reserves were down to just three tonnes. They say there are better assets to focus on, and this move has been called “wise and astute” by analysts.
> 
> Canada is not alone. There are countries with zero GOLD. Analysts were talking about gold is going to $500 & $300.
> https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...l-off-its-gold-reserves-to-the-retail-market/



If nations want to rely on paper because they are good money managers, then gold holds no value in their eyes.
The "value" argument existed well before I started looking at gold markets in the 1990.
Yet many nations are continuing to add to their gold reserves. 
China appears to be offsetting US Treasury declines and is buying physical gold again. 
A lot more relevant data are found here.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

You know Ann there were so many predictions, studies on commodities, stocks and property. If I am right few analysts in 2016 said “sell everything ahead of stock market crash”. Similarly, in another study in 2015 they said that the recent decline in gold prices is just the beginning. They predicted gold could plunge to $350. I t dropped to closer to $1000 and now it is back to $1300 levels.

Gold’s fair value is $825 according to the formula proposed in Erb and Harvey’s study in 2015.Whenever gold does eventually drop to fair value, it drop to a much lower value. He calculates that, if gold drops below fair value to the same extent it did in the mid-1970s and the late 1990s, bullion would trade around $350 an ounce. Analysts said gold have existed for thousands of years but for many investors gold has only recently become a tradable investment opportunity and the real price of gold is currently high compared to history.

They said Investors in gold face two choices
1.    History
2.    This time is different

When I was in another forum one gentleman told me to by something in Australia which is not physical gold and something like Gold Certificate long ago.I can’t remember what it is.


----------



## Ann

MARKETWINNER said:


> When I was in another forum one gentleman told me to by something in Australia which is not physical gold and something like Gold Certificate long ago.I can’t remember what it is.




I think Australia has some wonderful gold stocks to buy MW. I would look more to holding gold stocks than physical gold. As the price of gold rises, so too do the stocks and with an added advantage you often receive dividends from the gold stocks whereas physical gold does not pay a dividend and one has the extra need of a secure repository for the physical. Stocks are easier to dispose of if the price begins to fall as well.


----------



## barney

MARKETWINNER said:


> *According to analysts there is no real reason to hold gold* as an asset
> 
> * Analysts were talking about gold is going to $500 & $300.*




I wonder whether those same analysts might also be accumulating while they talk it down

Gold at $500 would shut most if not all Gold Mines down I'd guess.  

Supply is limited and Demand is pretty solid.

If everyone stops buying jewelry of course the S/D curve might alter a bit but personally I think those analysists might need to have a chat to Darryl Kerrigan


----------



## Ann

barney said:


> personally I think those analysists might need to have a chat to Darryl Kerrigan



'Tell him he's dreamin'!'


----------



## Joules MM1

in the 'that's interesting file'



			
				@iron_emu said:
			
		

> Here's the difference between what African countries officially exported, and what the UAE recorded it imported from those countries. Read our story: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/gold-africa-smuggling/ …






> Trading in gold accounts for nearly one-fifth of UAE’s GDP. But no big industrial companies reached by Reuters – including AngloGold Ashanti, Sibanye-Stillwater and Gold Fields – say they send gold there.








> Some artisanal African miners are swapping their pickaxes and shovels for diggers and crushers. Accidents are frequent. In one week this February, three accidents at illegal mining operations in Zimbabwe, Guinea and Liberia claimed the lives of more than 100 people.






> A Tanzanian parliamentary report estimated that 90 percent of annual production of informally mined gold is smuggled out of the country




click link for story https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/gold-africa-smuggling/


----------



## Ann

It is always interesting to see what influences markets on the day....

*Gold Gets Taken for a Ride After Fed Comments*

_Gold traders can be forgiven for feeling a bit queasy as efforts to parse economic signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve put them on a roller-coaster ride.

The metal jumped on Wednesday after the Fed said in a statement that it kept its benchmark U.S. rate unchanged and lowered the interest paid on reserves deposited with the central bank. Low rates are a boon to gold, which doesn’t pay interest. More..._


----------



## barney

My Gold stocks have been meandering recently …. 

GOLD AUD Chart ….  Sometimes the symmetrical V patterns behave … If so, another low under the recent low might be worth watching ….. (for a little dig to the upside that is) ….. 

Wishful thinking perhaps


----------



## explod

Good jump out of the box for a Monday morning.

Press the "Refresh" button on your browser while holding down the <ctrl> key to refresh this page


----------



## Ann

*Jewelers Cut Prices to Lure Buyers on India's Gold-Buying Day*

_Jewelers in India are lining up discounts to entice consumers on the second-biggest gold-buying day in the Hindu calendar.

Hindus buy valuables including gold and silver on Akshaya Tritiya, which falls on Tuesday this year, in the belief that it will bring luck and prosperity. That faith coupled with discounts and an about 7 percent drop in prices from an over five-year high in February is underpinning jewelers’ expectations for brisk sales.

Retailers like Malabar Gold & Diamonds are offering as much as 50 percent off on jewelry-making charges, while Tata Group’s Titan Co. is giving a discount of up to 25 percent. The charges vary from store to store and city to city and can contribute as much as 10 percent to the total cost of an ornament. Others are giving freebies such as Kerala-based Kalyan Jewellers, which said it is giving away gold coins for free to some customers. More..._


----------



## Ann

*Australia’s gold production ‘almost certain’ to fall after record highs in 2019*

_Gold production in Australia hit an all-time high in 2018, but new research sees the country’s output falling dramatically by 2024 as some of its biggest gold mines peter out.


Australia broke a 21-year production record last year after producing 317 tonnes (about 11.2 million ounces) of gold according to data released by analyst Surbiton Associates in March.


It is expected to produce an estimated 10.7Moz this year – equivalent to about $19.2 billion – placing the country second behind China in a list of the world’s biggest gold-producing nations.


However, a recent report by market analysis firm S&P Global Market Intelligence has forecast Australia will slide to fourth place behind Canada and Russia by 2024. More...


_


----------



## Ann

....and they say money doesn't grow on trees!...

*If you’re looking for gold, look in trees*

_Prospecting for gold by looking for it in leaves has finally proved itself commercially in Australia.

IN THE GOOD old days, gold miners could seek out visible specks of bling at the surface in order to find deeper, richer veins. These days, prospectors must examine samples of dirt for more minute traces suggestive of a hidden seam below. Analysing water from boreholes can also yield clues, but boreholes are scarce and new ones are costly and time-consuming to drill.

Trees offer an alternative that is finally bearing fruit in Australia. The idea has been around since the 1940s but, until now, never practical. Some trees have roots that reach deep underground, drawing up water and, along with it, tiny quantities of minerals that end up distributed throughout the tree. In this way, even lofty leaves bear traces of what lies far beneath. The quantities are minuscule. In areas where there is no gold, leaves may have a background level of 0.15 parts per billion (ppb) of gold; on gold-rich sites that can rise to 4ppb._


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I've got a few Marmota (MEU) shares, they're not doing much.


----------



## Kryzz

Gold starting too look interesting now after a number of weeks of doing not much, keeping an eye on the chart for an orderly pullback to enter long.


----------



## Ann

Kryzz said:


> Gold starting too look interesting now after a number of weeks of doing not much, keeping an eye on the chart for an orderly pullback to enter long.




I am not sure if it has a pull back it would be a good entry point, it may just be failing to re-enter a twice  failed 3-4 year old Ascending Triangle. A further rise on the other hand may be a safer option as an entry level. I feel this is at a juncture where great care needs to be taken. I could be quite wrong of course.


----------



## Kryzz

Ann said:


> I am not sure if it has a pull back it would be a good entry point, it may just be failing to re-enter a twice  failed 3-4 year old Ascending Triangle. A further rise on the other hand may be a safer option as an entry level. I feel this is at a juncture where great care needs to be taken. I could be quite wrong of course.
> 
> View attachment 95160




Longer term sure, will only be looking for a short term trade if the opportunity presents. Mid 1300's has been a great place to short too.


----------



## gartley

POG generated a daily buy on the 29th May which does not look completed yet on the cycles system I use. Looking to add on the pullbacks here.  
Weekly buy was generated in late Sep last year when cycle diferential crossed over, and it's basically been a case of being patient to wait for Weekly VF's to change direction from down to up. The latest one coincided with a nice alignment in the daily VF and Cycle differntial .
Suspect this will continue bullishly to about 1346 ( earlier resistance as well as point of 3rd std deviation of % percentage price chage from pink nominal level on both the daily and weekly charts)


----------



## rederob

Gold in AUD$ terms broke through $1900 last week - for the first time ever - and in USD$ terms crept close to $1350 resistance before closing out the week at $1340.
With no sign of US-China trade talks getting civilised there is a very good prospect $1350 falling next week, or at least soon thereafter. 
How much momentum there is to keep climbing, I am not sure, and not optimistic.  Given Brexit did sfa for gold's price, then it's next propeller might be quite ominous.
I was going to post this under Newcrest given it gapped from Friday week, but there seems inconsistent trends amongst Oz gold stocks, so this tide is not raising all ships it the same way.


----------



## Ann

*Gold Giants Battling to Lure Back Investors Who Fled Industry*

_What’s better than GOLD?

In the wake of two mega-mergers that have reset the gold industry, one small detail has delighted Mark Bristow, Barrick Gold Corp.’s chief executive officer: His company’s ability to secure the rights to trade its stock under the ticker GOLD in New York.


Barrick and newly merged Newmont Goldcorp Corp. are in a race to lure back generalist investors who fled the gold sector years ago. While Newmont has the advantage of size -- it’s bigger by market capitalization and production -- having the ticker GOLD certainly can’t hurt in the fight for brand recognition. More...
_


Ref:


----------



## Ann

Let's look at this long, long term quarterly chart, incomplete until the end of this month.

Now I am seeing something on this ancient chart which also seems to be agreeing with the pundits. We are very close to strong overhead resistance lines on both the All Ords and the Dow and S&P500. This may be heralding a rise for gold if the markets have a decent dump. Gold did little during the recent downturn but let's see what we can see on my chart.

So far on the EOD Quarterly the old level hasn't been breached but we won't know that until the end of June. I am thinking another fall back but I could be very, very wrong this time folks. 

Finally I can draw a long term rising support line which is almost in reach of the POG. If gold rises I can see a double top at around $1700 in the quarterly chart. Any fall back in the next few months will see that rising support line possibly adding support and confirmation of further rises if there is a bounce off it. Always like to see a rising support line it is an excellent indicator for a rise or fall.


----------



## tech/a

Ann
How does a rising support
Line actually work.
Do you have any research papers on it
Or is this a theory of yours?

We can draw all sorts of lines on a past chart
To support / explain anything we want
Bowden was an expert!
But of course calling ahead as you have here
Will be interesting——never seen anything like this 
Called 17 years later.


----------



## Ann

tech/a said:


> But of course calling ahead as you have here
> Will be interesting——never seen anything like this
> Called 17 years later.




I see you have lead a very sheltered life in that case Tech/a! 

The time scale is irrelevant as a chart, is a chart, is a chart...
but I hope you have patience, it might take a year or two or even more to go anywhere near this rising support line as it is drawn on a quarterly chart and nothing happens any more frequently than once every three months. Gold may take off and leave this line buried under its dust and it may never be needed for support or it may take five years to be touched. Charts like these are for the very patient. I have been drawing this chart and calling it as it is seen for seven years. 

Some of you may ask why did I start drawing the quarterly gold chart and not the monthly weekly or daily. When I chart something I look at all time scales and see if I can see something on one time scale which seems to tell me something more than any other time scale. This is what happened to gold. The quarterly began to form the very, very start of a rising megaphone. I just saw something (perhaps this is when the tea-leaves aspect of charting cuts in).  I already had a close relationship with the POG as I had been charting it on a couple of major gold forums since around 2004/5. Kitco was the first gold forum I posted on when it was the wild west with just two threads, before it got moderated, over organized and became anal. Then I ran a site with Zed called Hardmoney which was an alternative for the old Kitco site, at the same time posting on Goldismoney.  So as you folks can see I have had a close relationship with the POG for years, although it has been pretty mundane for many years, it only rated a glance for yet another quarter of nothing much in particular. Now with this support line I am now taking a touch more notice again. I think there is movement at the station folks! 

Now back to the chart, the last previous place I could have drawn a rising support was the red line, that line was breached back in 2013, since then there have not been any touch points to guide a rising support line until now. The red line was the last available rising support I could have drawn until this current line. Will it hold? Will it fail? Will it be touched at all? Time will tell folks! 




*If Gold Was Just A Barbarous Relic...*

There’s nothing new about the Russian accumulation of gold bullion in their reserve position. It began in a material way in 2009 when Russia had about 600 metric tonnes of gold.

Today, Russia has 2,183 metric tonnes, a stunning 264% increase in less than 10 years. Russia is the sixth-largest gold power in the world after the U.S., Germany, IMF, Italy and France.

Russia’s gold hoard is over 25% of the U.S. hoard, but Russia’s economy is only 8% the size of the U.S. economy. This gives Russia a gold-to-GDP ratio over three times that of the U.S.

While these developments are well-known, the question of why Russia is accumulating so much gold has never been answered. More...


----------



## ducati916

So here are a couple more charts:







It would appear that you could probably trade a pairs strategy around Gold and [probably] any currency that you chose. Here it is $US.

The correlation is higher between purchasing power [lower chart] than it is to the volume of money [upper chart] which reflects the huge number of variables involved: that would be my guess. One big one, which is hard to track being the carry trade.

So I would be long Gold, short currency, rebalancing over time possibly, rather than just opening closing a number of trades, although I haven't really looked at a way to do this yet.

Probably a far easier way is long Gold and long a Gold Put: which is a trade I hold, given that I appreciate the barbarity.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

Gold up AUD$21 and USD$11 overnight, no doubt helped by attacks on 2 oil tankers off Iranian waters.
At AUD$1941 at time of posting, gold in our currency terms is powering into blue sky.
However, in USD terms gold needs another $10 to break long term resistance. That's not immediately apparent, and likely needs some severe consequences from the oil tanker attacks to get the necessary traction. 
My bet would be that cool heads will prevail, although there will be lots of chest thumping beforehand.


----------



## rederob

What a day!
More blue skies and a breach of resistance


----------



## ducati916

With a historically high spread between gold/silver, a pairs trade looks attractive.




jog on
duc


----------



## Joules MM1

before pictures ...always superceded by current pictures, wouldnt you say @rederob  ?

all that 'chest beating' must have subsided


----------



## rederob

Joules MM1 said:


> before pictures ...always superceded by current pictures, wouldnt you say @rederob  ?



Can't stop time!
POG in AUD closed up $30 while in USD it was less than half that.
It was the strongest upleg I had seen for a very long time, and while US$ POG did not close above resistance, the fact it was breached does bode well.


----------



## Joules MM1

rederob said:


> Can't stop time!
> POG in AUD closed up $30 while in USD it was less than half that.
> It was the strongest upleg I had seen for a very long time, and while US$ POG did not close above resistance, the fact it was breached does bode well.




so not quite 'blue sky' then espesh as it was an outside down day in USD and a screaming sell daily bar in AUD's .....a lot of posts got rush into social media pronouncing the bull is on, but, price is the final arbiter on that one.....


----------



## kid hustlr

Well said J, also with the 'big week coming up in Mkts, expect volatility' long gold here seems too obvious!!


----------



## rederob

Here's the long term picture with contract position points:



And here's the Gold Bugs Index:



The likelihood seems greater for gold breaking upward rather than downward from here.


----------



## rederob

kid hustlr said:


> Well said J, also with the 'big week coming up in Mkts, expect volatility' long gold here seems too obvious!!



I was not sure what that really meant, so instead add my views.
Gold has a history of running its own course in the short term, and mulling the tea leaves for inspiration is not going to be productive.
In the longer term the drivers of gold prices are a bit simpler.  Gold continues to be a safe haven for big money and, in times of economic (rather than political) "uncertainty" it will attract increased inflows.  There is an entirely separate market for "demand" and this is a bit like the weather versus climate argument.
What was interesting about POG is that it continued to rise well after the GFC, and fell steadily through to 2016 as markets got themselves into a semblance of order.
Since 2016 POG has cycled through a series of higher lows, with fleeting breaches of resistance at around US$1350.  Holding above that level is  the key.
Neither Brexit nor the US/China trade impasse have got POG excited as the "uncertainty" caused by these issues has not had a chance to manifestly affect markets.  However, we are nearing when the fallout is going to spill into markets in a palpable way, and flights to safety are likely to materialise at significantly higher levels.
We have moved from an itch to a festering sore and not bothered Doctor Gold.  As the inflammation grows so too will the need for treatment.


----------



## rederob

Joules MM1 said:


> before pictures ...always superceded by current pictures, wouldn't you say @rederob ?







Yes, for  sure!


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> It was the strongest upleg I had seen for a very long time, and while US$ POG did not close above resistance, the fact it was breached does bode well.







US$1350 resistance has been well and truly smashed, so let's see if we will continue to see daily swings in excess of 1% in coming weeks that carry through the current momentum.
In AUD terms $2000 is a breath away.  The media always gets a bit excited when these "milestones" get breached and money pours into gold ambitiously, adding fresh momentum.
In the few minutes between starting this post POG actually crept 8 dollars higher to sit over $1,372 which is +$28 so far today.


----------



## IFocus

My SMSF has been enjoying SAR and NCM contributions still will have to wait and see if this breakout is real and support holds the NY trade may decide other wise.

Surprised the gold bugs haven't been in more of a frenzy


----------



## rederob

IFocus said:


> My SMSF has been enjoying SAR and NCM contributions still will have to wait and see if this breakout is real and support holds the NY trade may decide otherwise.
> Surprised the gold bugs haven't been in more of a frenzy



But, but but............... I am in a frenzy .




I said a whisper away just hours ago, and there it is - $2000 breached.  Really enjoyed that it was a "*gold*" line showing they way up.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I slung an upwards CFD in at 1362 this morning. I didn't expect it to propel up near 1390 for no reason, but I'll take it!


----------



## rederob

BlindSquirrel said:


> I slung an upwards CFD in at 1362 this morning. I didn't expect it to propel up near 1390 for no reason, but I'll take it!



Well done!
Biggest surprise after the gold rush this morning is that having screamed to a high, it has held its price for almost 2 hours now.  I fully expected profit taking and a rapid fall after peaking near $1384.  Instead, for the past hour it has very steadily inched up from $1377 to $1380.
So while there might not be much excitement here, maybe the god bugs are presently in play and propping up POG beyond our expectations.
Whatever...I too will take it as my 3 goldies lock in some nice gains.
May we all enjoy many happy returns, because it's been a long while.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> Biggest surprise after the gold rush this morning is that having screamed to a high, it has held its price for almost 2 hours now.



Not only did it continue to hold up, it went *up**. *And, has so far stayed up.
*

*

We can probably thank the Donald, because he's still beating his chest over Iran as I post, but this time about a US drone Iran shot down rather than toying with tankers.
Breaks like this in the gold price - ie US$44 above yesterday's Comex close - close-out lots of short positions and tend to reset the bar higher.  
Given that trade tensions remain high, I am struggling to see a case for any substantial dip in POG.  I also cannot see that the Donald has any capacity to quickly cool so many situations of his own making, so onward and upward is a real prospect rather than good luck.


----------



## IFocus

The irony doesn't escape me that The Donald is making me money


----------



## rederob

IFocus said:


> The irony doesn't escape me that The Donald is making me money.



He's good for gold, but otherwise.......




Anyhow, $1400 taken out decisively, with the upleg coming after Hong Kong opened: see above chart - same as yesterday.
POG needs to retrace, and the question will be where the bar is to be set.


----------



## rederob

POG closed the week less than a dollar shy of US$1400 which was a good outcome as I expected a lot more profit taking given the massive spike in price.




The bar held above $1380 yesterday and promisingly had a relatively steady ascent until market close.
The more short positions that get smashed, the better I say .
Let's see what tweets can do over the weekend to hold gold higher for longer.


----------



## rederob

Change in net longs overt the week was from 185k to 224k positions:




Just a year ago net shorts held sway, so momentum has swung strongly positive.

The Gold Bugs Index, below, suggests a lot more room headroom is available:


----------



## rederob

Momentum continues: immediately the New York Globex market opened this morning, gold jumped $8 higher before settling back to around US$1405:


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Some AU gold stocks looking ready to rise.


----------



## rederob

POG continuing to break higher:




Yesterday was a day of strong consolidation, and the overnight rise will shake off more shorts.  It's hard to see players betting against the trend right now as political and economic indicators are not suggesting the markets are in for a good time.


----------



## rederob

The G20 outcome in Japan was uneventful, and the USA and China will continue their talks, rather than actions, on trade.  That uncertainty is likely to keep POG over $1400 for the time being.
Looking at the chart below, net longs added strength to future upside:




Looking for the next technical barrier for POG is a bit tricky as it ran strongly for 10 years, declined for 4 years, and since 2016 been meandering through a series of higher lows.  Looking at quarterly data for POG I see $1600 as the next hurdle and see it jumped in 2020.  The monthly chart suggest $1560 as the next hurdle. Either one, if US bond rates are lowered again, I suspect these will be breached a lot faster.

Of the many likely winners on the ASX, my favourite is always the biggest producer with the least hedging.  Quite a few mid-tier and smaller producers have large hedge books to unwind - most well under AUD$1900 - and will need the next year to rebalance their forward sales so as to maximise profits rather than constrain them.


----------



## rederob

Please note that the chart I posted on June 25th 2019 seems to be auto hyperlnked, so is showing updated and *immediate *gold prices, plus those of the 2 previous days.
Anyway, I was going to add that recent support is $1383 and has been steady thereabouts for 2 days before POG jumped $40 again this morning.  It has been stabilising above $1425 at time of posting.
You do not need to be a rocket scientist to work out the big swings are presently happening during New York Globex afternoon market hours (especially at open/close).
I guess for gold bugs the best news to date is that POG never tested $1350 after smashing through that level of long term resistance.


----------



## Logique

I make it a 6 year high. It's on the move, that's for sure


----------



## ducati916

Looks a bit like a break of resistance and a little test to see if support will hold.




Looks pretty bullish to me.

jog on
duc


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Double Top?


----------



## rederob

Another week passes and POG remains firmly above $1350 support, plus has not fallen below $1383 since racing to recent highs.
I have always preferred a progressive rise in POG, rather than a dizzying spiral that quickly topples, so am happy this week closed near $1400:




With craziness in global trade and politics prevailing I cannot see too much downside near term for POG, and we probably just need Trump or the Iranians to light another fuse to kick it into a new ballpark.


----------



## Un1qu3nam3

The Chinese government is accumulating gold. I suppose to offset the inherent weaknesses in the Yuan given that you can't use it to buy property or state-owned resources domestically, nor most commodities internationally. Without capital controls China's citizens would swamp the exits to get out of their own currency. You can't risk having that sort of pressure against the dam forever without addressing it. I doubt they can accumulate enough to ever form even a partial, gold-backed currency but sizeable gold reserves can be an important hedging and psychological tool for traders and citizens alike. I don't know how effective it would be if the Yuan got into trouble. You'd have to expend the gold assets to defend any peg and its supply is limited.


----------



## moXJO

Anyone heard about psyche 16?


----------



## rederob

I have borrowed this from elsewhere:




The dark blue line on the bottom right of the candlestick chart is the 200 day moving average.  It's important because it has been a long time since it appeared in charts like this with a clear upside trend.
The other reason I borrowed the chart is because it is offers incontrovertible evidence that we are in a new price action paradigm for gold.  Daily movements are now greater than some that unwound over a fortnight, and these will keep shaking out the weak hands dealing in gold.
The one thing I learned when posting about gold around 20 years ago is that is a game of infinite patience.  I have a conservative price target of over $2000 within 3 years and expect some massive bumps along the way.  It's conservative because this bull run starts from a significantly higher platform, and is driven by producer costs which even at today's high price sees some mines barely profitable.
Add the tendency for many Central Banks to accumulate gold holdings, plus overall market uncertainties, and the recipe is complete.


----------



## Mr Z

Gold 4H USD - We have broken the trend that started this move and we are still holding over a level that qualifies this as a high level consolidation. An upward break of this pennant pattern would target the 1595 area. On a break down I'd say we are looking @ that mid 13 level for the first hope of solid support.

2c FWIW. JMO etc


----------



## Mr Z

Gold USD Daily - On a potential break out here, remember that the last candle needs to complete. Ideally it does so with a clean vault over the 1425 level... 1440 for confirmation then we are on another up-leg by the looks of it.


----------



## Mr Z

Gold USD 4H - Hitting the upper bound of the pennant.


----------



## Mr Z

GSR Monthly, damn near the highest on record, summin has to give!


----------



## Mr Z

Gold 4H USD - Still in the pattern. On higher support right now. If this holds the next swing upward could be the juice. For now we are still consolidating.


----------



## Mr Z

Same in AUD...


----------



## Ownthebitcoin

Multi-month complex i H&S pattern has triggered targets near $1,700


----------



## Mr Z

Ownthebitcoin said:


> Multi-month complex i H&S pattern has triggered targets near $1,700




Big resistance @ ~ 1600 area! $1700 would reflect MAJOR strength. I'm not sure that she has that much steam up just yet.


----------



## Mr Z

Gold 4H - As we open for the week gold is struggling with resistance @ the 1420 level. Not really looking like we are going to take another crack at the breakout line in Mondays session. Looking near due for a push upward on the daily so I am guessing sometime this week. The consolidation is getting tighter... so the $64 Q is still break up or down? Still leaning bullish over here but a correction wouldn't be out of place and indeed many are calling for one!


----------



## Ownthebitcoin

Mr Z said:


> Big resistance @ ~ 1600 area! $1700 would reflect MAJOR strength. I'm not sure that she has that much steam up just yet.



Yep, but resistances can be broken. Prefer to ride the major trend, but could take profit off just before that area to be safe.


----------



## Mr Z

Ownthebitcoin said:


> Yep, but resistances can be broken. Prefer to ride the major trend, but could take profit off just before that area to be safe.




One step at a time with gold. The sell offs can and do damage people.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

looking intently at the latest test of that supporting trend line:


Bollingers are squeezing nicely too!


----------



## Mr Z

Gold 4H - On support and now looking properly due to swing upward. Needless to say we need to hold this support and break the overhead resistance with some gusto, a new high close is needed in short order to confirm any break out. IMO.


----------



## Mr Z

USDX Monthly - long term. I can see us getting back to trend here which will boost gold. That process could/should take into early 2020. Then we will probably start up again. Interestingly this matches Martin Armstrong's cycle turn date. If we get going to the upside and crack that 103 level then 120 is on the table. @ that point the world should be feeling the pain. I guess that if anything big is going to unfold here it happens roughly on in this time frame. IMO the period of time where the USD changes direction will likely be very challenging for US based gold investors.


----------



## Mr Z

GSR --> ding, ding, ding ?!


----------



## Mr Z

Silver potentially on a breakout week. 2c FWIW.


----------



## Mr Z

This could get interesting...

http://www.abcbusinessnews.com/2019/07/bank-run-deutsche-bank-clients-are-pulling-1-billion-a-day/

Although I am certain that there is a plan in place. This has been coming for years.


----------



## Mr Z

Gold 4H ---> Looking a lot like liftoff, new highs and then we can consider a shot @ the very high 15's ---> JMO, for now.


----------



## Mr Z

Bridgewater Capital likes gold...


----------



## sptrawler

Mr Z said:


> Bridgewater Capital likes gold...



Thanks Mr Z, a well written analysis. The problem with gold IMO, is holding it, if everything goes pear shaped from memory the Gov can commandeer it.


----------



## Mr Z

sptrawler said:


> Thanks Mr Z, a well written analysis. The problem with gold IMO, is holding it, if everything goes pear shaped from memory the Gov can commandeer it.




In Australia that is true... but not so for silver or a quality miner. At the moment silver is just starting to perk up from a near record undervaluation v gold. If you can handle volatility silver is setup to fly once again IMO.


----------



## Mr Z

Silver Daily - A quick pic of silvers progress. Some work to do, but it is a start.


----------



## Mr Z

Gold Monthly --> The target area is marked and by the looks of it late this year is a reasonable timeline. ***Should*** we make this target and we get a bad period for stocks in Sept/Oct you should prepare yourself for the possibility that we track back down to the lower trendline. That could be as low as 1300 mid next  year. Remember 2008, bathwater and babies went out the window together and then gold picked up afterwards. Watch for a similar outcome this time. However, in 2007/8 everything was 'priced for perfection', this time gold is quite unloved so by then it will likely only be the recent 'weak handed' momentum chasers that get flushed. That should limit downside, but, keep it in mind... markets go up the stairs & down the elevator!


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Mr Z said:


> Silver Daily - A quick pic of silvers progress. Some work to do, but it is a start.




Is that not a resistance around 16-16.1?


----------



## Mr Z

BlindSquirrel said:


> Is that not a resistance around 16-16.1?




Yes. We are in a sticky patch that might take a little work to get through.


----------



## rederob

Yesterday's Comex gold price settled at a recent record high after breaking long term resistance about a month ago.
Overnight Mr Trump's actions via his Iran expedition (shooting down a drone in Hormuz) rocketed gold to a probable new high again, some $20 above the previous close as I add this post:



The upside to commentary is that recent support has strongly held above $1382, while $1400 has not been breached in the past week.
Coupled with sharp thrusts higher, which rattle the short sellers, we tread much firmer ground as POG continues to rally.
The next level of resistance is around $1450 - historically tracking back to March 2011. 
What is interesting when looking at POG's monthly movements is that it uncommon for successive months to carry high gains, so I will be comfortable with consolidation in the range $1400-$1450 for two or three months.
However, should Trump continue his unique brand of diplomacy, a race to $1600 could happen a lot quicker than it otherwise would.


----------



## Mr Z

Gold 4H USD - We are on a breakout by the looks of things. The second chart gives fibo projections based on the Flag/Pennant consolidation.


----------



## rederob

As can be seen from the hourly chart below, POG has not dipped below $1400 since 10 July:




Other interesting features include the nice platform building around $1415, and the elevators both up and down in price.
Between the elevator rides there is a consistent theme of prolonged, steady rises in price, confirming that momentum remains on the buying side.
With the USA's FOMC now looking at rate cuts, POG's upward trajectory looks reasonably safe for the next few months.


----------



## rederob

Here's an almost picture perfect pattern of strength:




After long term resistance was broken on 20 June (bottom left), POG has stepped incrementally higher.
Nice pattern of consolidation above $1400 suggests there is a lot more upside, while market weakness continues to be bought out.


----------



## rederob

Gold was smacked down overnight, but recovered even more strongly to close at a probable 6 year high as the week draws to a close, as seen in the 30 minute chart below:




The arm wrestle waged between the shorts and longs keeps seeing the gold price ratcheting higher, so I continue to be optimistic into the medium term.
Blind Freddy can tell that globally there remains significant market uncertainty and, coupled with the FED rate drop this week, holding a defensive asset like gold seems to be a sensible strategy.
Oz goldies took a hit yesterday, so look like bouncing back with a vengeance today given the sharp price reversal.  In that regard AMI, which recently fell out of favour, looks to be a good long term play given it won't have hedged much of its production at the lower AUD prices that most other producers have sold into.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

it still can't seems to get properly through 1445USD.
It's certainly been up and down like a whore's drawers in the last couple of days!


----------



## rederob

Short term gold equities are "sell" given some have risen disproportionately with POG, eg NCM has increased some 50% in 3 months compared with less than 15% for POG in the same period.

I am not suggesting "sell" is the way to go unless you are trading, and here is why:



The Gold Bugs Index is in its infancy if we truly are in a bull market, and that's my thinking.  So I will not be quitting any of my gold equities any time soon.
Back to NCM for a moment: in perspective, this company is going to knock out about 2.5million ounces over the next year, so every dollar increase to POG generates a massive profit.  Four years ago its margin was USD$330/oz, compared with $589 in the 2019 financial year. In the 2020 financial year you can already add an extra $USD100/oz to that, so being leveraged by volume will play a major role in comparative equity profitability equations.


----------



## tinhat

I haven't been following gold but I just took a look at the weekly chart which contains a text book example of a cup and handle formation. Cup forms between Jan 18 and Jan 19. Handle forms between Jan 19 and May 19, when price breaks out strongly above the Jan 18 resistance level.


----------



## explod

The rise in the Aussie is the one I like as it will multiply our goldie returns:-
https://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/index.html?currency=aud&timePeriod=10y&flag=gold&otherChart=no#


----------



## rederob

Trade tensions kicked off by China's revaluing of the yuan yesterday stirred gold overnight,
We wake to another recent-time record high, with gold decisively jumping the $1450 hurdle to sit above $1470 as I post.
Trump has proven he has not mastered the art of the deal in international politics, and so we are left with lingering uncertainties all over the place.  The likelihood of protracted trade war play and counterplays seems strong, so my thinking is very much along the lines of POG at $1500 being somewhat of a formality.  The race to $1600 might begin a lot earlier than I would prefer because the ingredients to get it there are now being baked in a much warmer oven.
Here is the daily chart for the past year:


Not too hard to see where the trend lies.
And here is the action over the past week on a 30-minute chart:


I was struck by their similarity.
In stock market terms, gold equities are presently over extended.  However, the current run could last long enough to see any short term trashing being quickly overturned, as evidenced from the above.
I can only say that if I was a gold producer, I would look to de-hedge as quickly as possible and start selling into a significantly more profitable gold market going forward.


----------



## rederob

The formality of $1500 came a bit quick so expect some profit taking.
I am not a fan of crazy fast price increases as it leaves too many holes to backfill.
That said, POG spent over 5 years in the wilderness, and remains well over $400 shy of it's all time record, so holding above $1500 is not stretching the envelope.
I am stuck on a mobile phone for a few more weeks so will hopefully post some charts again when I get back to Oz.


----------



## explod

In my view the long term chart speaks volumes for where gold is heading.  The doubt in the financial systems, zero interest rates with continued growing debts, automation and the loss of jobs are big drivers atm.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Third time's the charm for that 1510 level! 
It's now marching past 1523. Hopefully keeps going to my target (1535 - last seen in 2012).


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Rumour JPM in trouble.....
Euro banks insolvent on NIRP.....Deutsche Bank
$15T in neg yld junk
USD no longer least dirty shirt with crypto and gold...
QE imminent!


----------



## BlindSquirrel

...  I...
huh? 
Does that mean up or down? QE for whom?


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Also: I nailed it this time. My CFD target was hit at 1535USD and it has since dived. Currently holding just over 1500.


----------



## explod

A good gap fill and a solid revving of the engine for a bigger run.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Flag/Pennant forming on the 4H chart. Bullish?


----------



## explod

The economic front is very volatile too and gold is in record territory in all other currencies (with volatility also) so cant' see it holding back from a good rise soon.

We'll see.


----------



## rederob

BlindSquirrel said:


> Flag/Pennant forming on the 4H chart. Bullish?



All the global ingredients are suggesting the gold price is going to hold and rise.
There will be some now with good profits from the sharp rise in the past few months, so spurts off profit taking may see more of the rapid declines which have sporadically occurred.
These are likely to repeat the "buy the dips" mentality which imho will keep pushing new recent all-time highs to much greater heights.
Top this with  negative yield curves in .money markets and gold's bullish case is for now settled.


----------



## barney

BlindSquirrel said:


> Flag/Pennant forming on the 4H chart. Bullish?






explod said:


> so cant' see it holding back from a good rise soon.






rederob said:


> All the global ingredients are suggesting the gold price is going to hold and rise.




I hope you guys are right and well positioned …… Its interesting to watch a lot of Gold Stocks struggle since their recent spikes, even though the POG is still looking strong.   I am banking/hoping on it being a bit of a shake out before the next even bigger push, but there is a little heat being generated where I am seated just at the moment ​


----------



## qldfrog

@explod
Wall Street took a hit  minus 2.5 % so far.so gold stocks should be strong on monday


----------



## barney

explod said:


> Well a strong move is on this early Sat morning.




Gold Back to the highs of the August Range.  

Index's belted a bit … 

AUD/USD meandering around the 50% level of the August Range

Lots of jockeying for positions all over the shop … interesting few months coming up.


----------



## IFocus

Gold price $1526 ish on close so looking for my gold miners to recover Monday hopefully (heaven forbid) the Donald keeps tweeting


----------



## rederob

IFocus said:


> Gold price $1526 ish on close so looking for my gold miners to recover Monday hopefully (heaven forbid) the Donald keeps tweeting



Your wish was granted, with a race to yet another recent high kicking off trading- do we call it a Trumped up charge?




I looked at other charts to post showing the longer term perspective, and the current monthly-data chart series look very scary - too high too fast!
So this one shows where we are in terms of "bullish sentiment":




The gold bull is a long game and fraught with stairs up and elevators down during daily trading.  So I am going to set some price targets for some of my gold equities to lock in profits along the way, and buy back on dips.  Am starting with RMS at $1.70 and NCM at $42 and will be happy to wait it out.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I got kicked out of my CFD uppies (trailing stops too tight) on Friday night at around 1502. Oh well.


----------



## rederob

Looking at POG from a slightly different perspective, it has risen less than US$200 since April last year.
We know from the $HUI at post 11903 that the prospect of a doubling is in play, which means it's still very early days.




From a shorter term perspective the standout is respect of support, which for much of August was $1490.



The present support point is $1525, and this will hold short term *only *if our fumbling world leaders can't properly mix the economic ingredients needed so that we can all share a slice of the pie we deserve.
Right now, my reckoning is on $1600 being hit a good deal sooner than I would prefer, as we need a lot longer for POG to consolidate in the $1500s in order to avoid the really big price swings.


----------



## rederob

In recent months the first website opened each morning is at Goldprice.org to see what played out overnight.  So last evening there was a small dip.
The site has a great charting tool that lets you examine a few dozen indicators, and drill into the action minute by minute.  So below is a snapshot I just took, and there are some revealing tendencies (much clearer when you open the chart):




I chose *Bollinger bands* and *momentum *as indicators, and looked for simple "trading" points.
Entry indicators occur when *momentum *breaches -4, and selling indicators occur when POG prices pierce the upper Bollinger band.  It's a simple trading strategy, but I do not trade and just show it as an example given that patterns repeat ad infinitum in trading and it's just a matter of working out if they have decision value.
Less evident is that not a great deal happens between 16:00 and 20:00 New York Time, when volumes drop off markedly and the price meanders for some hours.
Our OZ goldies don't particularly care about intraday POG so the above is not too helpful except in knowing whether or not the price shifts are up or down, and if it they are significant.


----------



## rederob

POG kept its cool over the week, closing above $1500 although it dropped from its earlier high:




There is fair support around $1520 with a downside risk to $1490ish.
US data this week is likely to support another Fed rate cut.  That cut might not be soon, but its likelihood is getting stronger, and while that's in play there is minimal downside risk to POG.
That's confirmed by the punters going long on gold, as shown below.  It's a bull market and bets on the downside have fizzled out for now.




The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) again rose, but remains below 250, and also below the 2016 highs (see above chart of 26 August) so this is a journey with a lot more promise.


----------



## rederob

I have reverted to screenshots because many of the linked charts I posted in earlier months are auto-updated and no longer reflect the commentary which was attached - sorry!




The above shows where this bull run commenced.
Kicking off in June, there was a strong run north in the third week which lead to a close above long-term resistance on the 19th.
All uplegs have had reasonable consolidation, albeit too brief for my liking.  The strong positive here is that no parabolic increases are evident, so the prospect of a sustaining sharp fall is presently exceptionally low.
Chartists who want to draw a trading channel will notice that the range is presently $1480 to $1560, so no need to be nervous despite today's close realising yet another multi-year high.


----------



## explod

And the Aussie Gold Price is far into an all time high, and again on the chart looks set to continue.


----------



## rederob

Back on 25 August POG jumped $60 in a day and set benchmark high for a follow through close.




We are getting closer by the day, and once that occurs the next point of resistance at $1600 will be within a day's momentum.
We have Brexit and Trump to thank, so keep an eye on the turmoil to see how sustaining this crazy run north is likely to be.
My reckoning has $1600 breached before the Poms go to the polls next month.  And if that election turns the UK into a dog's breakfast - if it is not already - then POG will remain strong.
Although a $300 increase over 3-4 months does not sound sustainable, it's not the right way to think about what is happening.  The question really is, "where is my money safer, if things keep going pear shaped."  I am not talking about mug punters in equities like us but, instead, those with mega millions to play with.  
Think about this for a moment: For several years after the GFC, POG continued to rise. 
Why?
Because it took a number of years for markets to appear to be over the worst of it.  Moreover, POG post GFC never fell below POG prior to the GFC, despite falling off a cliff after reaching $1,917.90 an ounce on August 22, 2011.
If we took that base case as an example, then whatever ills are likely to hit global markets in months to come, there is a prospect that POG at $1550 will hold as a minimum.  Translating this to OZ goldies, that's a lot of annual profit.  So mug punters now into Oz goldies might have a dividend stream to look forward to, whereas prior investments were more a hope and a prayer .


----------



## rederob

An interesting week for POG - closing much lower than it began.
I personally prefer this "cooling" in price so as to avoid an irrational splurge that leads to significant volatility rather than relatively orderly progression.
So, we see good price support around $1490:




A closer look at trading action over the past 24 hours shows that as prices dip to nearer $1500 we get very strong buying action.




There's no positive news globally, so POG should trade in the range it has for the past week or so, barring the unforeseen.


----------



## rederob

Gold has spent a few days heading south, and I am hoping for a dip to around $1490:




Momentum at posting this was still downward, so profit takers are filling their bags.
Whatever direction from here, I am happy, as we need POG around these levels for consolidation to occur.
Fundamentals for further northward movements remains strong, with a rate cut from the Federal Reserve far more likely than any increase.  So big money will store its wealth in gold where it tends to be safe in these uncertain times.  And from previous charts I have posted, the Gold Bugs Index has a long way to go before it gets overheated.


----------



## CanOz

Gold longs are a crowded trade according to COT. If this thing gets going we could get some nice liquidation....volatility is certain and better volumes than indices at the moment. Go and cl are a day traders wet dream in September.


----------



## rederob

From the above hourly chart you can see that POG has dropped to month-ago lows after selldowns during the past week.
There was no particular trigger for the selldowns, and there is nothing suggesting it is other than profit-taking.
Back on 13 August when POG fell off a cliff, it was 10 days before the price next spiked up sharply, and this run south has been only 5 days.  So if you have no gold equities in your portfolio, maybe now would be good to look at a few.  My preference would be Newcrest, with expected production of about 2.5moz in fy2020 at AISC around USD$750, and free cash flow now estimated over $1B - read their investor presentation dated 10 September for full details.
Now doubt there are other Oz goldies that have excellent short term potential, but if you are in this for the long haul, NCM has the best metrics of all larger producers.


----------



## rederob

Gold has been bouncing around off its 30 day low this week and might just end closing a touch higher than it began:




This is exactly what the doctor ordered, imho, as its trading channel is intact, suggesting its rise to $1600 is unlikely to be as volatile as it looked a week ago.

Regularly posting on POG can be a bit of a waste of time given how long it can take to decisively go in  any particular direction.  But these are not ordinary times.

We have never before had a "*trade war*" of such proportions, concurrent with an unsettled Europe and sabre rattling on the oil front.  We also have some central bank interest rates in the negatives, while Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut deeply.

How long these issues will take to resolve themselves is anyone's guess, but at the very best a Brexit outcome would be 31 October.  That, however, will cause its own economic tumult until a semblance of order appears - so we are looking into next year!

Speaking of Central Banks, they have been diversifying out of US dollars and into gold in a big way, and it's hard seeing that trend falling away in the present global climate.

On the trade war front it's difficult to see Trump backing down until the so called big end of town tells him that his tariffs are disproportionately affecting US businesses.  We already know consumers have been hit, but Trump never feels their pain, so they do not count.
Onwards we go....


	

		
			
		

		
	
....


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Gold has been bouncing around off its 30 day low this week and might just end closing a touch higher than it began:
> 
> View attachment 97397
> 
> 
> This is exactly what the doctor ordered, imho, as its trading channel is intact, suggesting its rise to $1600 is unlikely to be as volatile as it looked a week ago.
> 
> Regularly posting on POG can be a bit of a waste of time given how long it can take to decisively go in  any particular direction.  But these are not ordinary times.
> 
> We have never before had a "*trade war*" of such proportions, concurrent with an unsettled Europe and sabre rattling on the oil front.  We also have some central bank interest rates in the negatives, while Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut deeply.
> 
> How long these issues will take to resolve themselves is anyone's guess, but at the very best a Brexit outcome would be 31 October.  That, however, will cause its own economic tumult until a semblance of order appears - so we are looking into next year!
> 
> Speaking of Central Banks, they have been diversifying out of US dollars and into gold in a big way, and it's hard seeing that trend falling away in the present global climate.
> 
> On the trade war front it's difficult to see Trump backing down until the so called big end of town tells him that his tariffs are disproportionately affecting US businesses.  We already know consumers have been hit, but Trump never feels their pain, so they do not count.
> Onwards we go....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ....




Thanks @rederob for such a good summary of chaos theory in action atm. 

I've never been a Gold bug except in the early 80's when I bought a heap of physical which is in a "safe place" somewhere in Casa Gumnut. It would take a day to find it, but will be a fallback. I bought at $600 from memory and kicked myself for over a decade but feel quite gruntled in retrospect.

gg


----------



## rederob

If you were  writing the script for gold to rise into a supportive market, then the chart would look like this:



Breach of long-term resistance in June, consolidation with minimal slippage until August when it soon took out its next technical resistance at around $1500, and then carried through for over a month, further consolidating.
Present support is at $1485, and dips to that level have been quickly countered.
The past week proved interesting for two reasons:

The strike on Aramco's oil production facility led to POG increasing a measly percentage point, and
The Fed rate drop actually led to POG immediately declining.
Both these issues are behind us now.  However each casts a longer shadow, and these are supportive of gold rallying rather than declining.
In the first case, it shows how fragile oil facilities are and the potential for damage to severely affect global markets.  And that's aside from the political posturing over Middle East issues that continue to fuel the fires.
Meanwhile the Fed decision means big money needs a safer home than banks and bonds.
All the while Brexit simmers in the background, and China has gone off the boil.
It's a picture that I like being painted, and am in no hurry to see finished.


----------



## rederob

Tonight POG is testing $1485.
Let's see how it goes.
Whatever the outcome, the important thing to remember is that this *IS* a bull market and breaching support is not a death sentence, especially not in the present global climate.
Techies can recalibrate likely trajectories.
The one thing I will enjoy is watching POG break through $1600 some time in the medium term (possibly sooner), while solid gold producers will be raking in strong profits from the extra several hundreds of dollars per ounce they will be generating.
My advice - buy the big dips.  And we have not had any yet, so find something on Netflix to binge watch while waiting.


----------



## rederob

Below is the 30 minute chart for gold:




Support arrived at $1460 and this is seen from the hourly chart below:




Although much too early to say there won't be another retrace, my suspicion is that $1485 could hold for a while longer, and that sizable dips will be bought out relatively quickly.
In the inimitable words of Keating, "this was the progression we had to have."


----------



## Smurf1976

rederob said:


> The past week proved interesting for two reasons:
> 
> The strike on Aramco's oil production facility led to POG increasing a measly percentage point, and
> The Fed rate drop actually led to POG immediately declining.
> Both these issues are behind us now.  However each casts a longer shadow, and these are supportive of gold rallying rather than declining.
> In the first case, it shows how fragile oil facilities are and the potential for damage to severely affect global markets.  And that's aside from the political posturing over Middle East issues that continue to fuel the fires.
> Meanwhile the Fed decision means big money needs a safer home than banks and bonds.




Interested in how you see this in relation to other "physical" assets?

Oil is one obviously which directly relates to the points you make but also the other precious metals, commodities, real estate etc. At a simple level these issues would also apply to those things would they not? 

Or are you seeing that it's a situation somewhat unique to gold and gold alone?


----------



## tinhat

It's often said that the AUD moves with the price of gold. Since mid last year however, the price of gold has been rallying and the AUD has been in decline against the USD.

Is the AUD_USD decoupling from the price of gold or is something going to give to correct the divergence?




Chart of AUD_USD (blue) with relative price of gold (USD) overlaid (blue).


----------



## Smurf1976

tinhat said:


> Is the AUD_USD decoupling from the price of gold or is something going to give to correct the divergence?



When a relationship has existed for an extended period, divergences tend to be temporary with the question being about the detail of how it resolves and when.

That said, well right now looking at international markets stocks are down, oil is down, the AUD is pretty much unchanged, gold is up so the trend continues at least for the present time.


----------



## rederob

Smurf1976 said:


> Interested in how you see this in relation to other "physical" assets?
> 
> Oil is one obviously which directly relates to the points you make but also the other precious metals, commodities, real estate etc. At a simple level these issues would also apply to those things would they not?
> 
> Or are you seeing that it's a situation somewhat unique to gold and gold alone?



Silver tends to follow gold, but I can't see other metals affected.
Many years ago there was a tendency for gold and oil to move in tandem, and latterly that seems to be only when there is a very significant event affecting oil, as per the Aramco refinery strike.  If you chart POG and POO this year there is no positive correlation.
I do not follow the property market, so have no comment on any relationship existing.
As I see it, there are global factors driving "risk" and in that market it gets tricky parking money anywhere for a reasonable time.  Gold seems to outlive "risk" and becomes a safer alternative - at least from an historical perspective - so rises in price as more flock to it.
So yes, I see a current bull market for gold and not much else.


----------



## rederob

I have nipped off the tops from this chart's trend channel to show where exuberance gets curtailed:



The channel drawn above represents an $85 range, although the channel proper would otherwise have been nearer $145.  A 10% range is not useful for seeing overbought in this bull market.
The instructive lesson is to now go back to gold producing equities and see how well they have stabilised albeit clearly off their August highs.


----------



## qldfrog

Something i have just been aware of and could be really big if it takes
Gold backed crypto coin by Perth Mint
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ading-through-blockchain/11590926?pfmredir=sm


----------



## moXJO

qldfrog said:


> Something i have just been aware of and could be really big if it takes
> Gold backed crypto coin by Perth Mint
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ading-through-blockchain/11590926?pfmredir=sm



Cryptos lure is that its decentralized. Backing it with gold defeats the purpose.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> Cryptos lure is that its decentralized. Backing it with gold defeats the purpose.



Actually i think it is the gold physical location which breaks the dream
If you had that gold in an old style swiss bank, that would be perfect
But now even Swissland is not a guarantee of either anonymity or government interference
Gold issue is with storage, you do not want to dig your gold in your garden or keep it in your safe or under your bed
Gold in a bank safe is subject to government seizure, paper gold is useless not truely a match: more paper than physical gold
I naively trust a bit more pmgold that gold or other us paper versions
But still, crypto could be an option..but you still need to trust someone as gold is physical


----------



## moXJO

qldfrog said:


> Actually i think it is the gold physical location which breaks the dream
> If you had that gold in an old style swiss bank, that would be perfect
> But now even Swissland is not a guarantee of either anonymity or government interference
> Gold issue is with storage, you do not want to dig your gold in your garden or keep it in your safe or under your bed
> Gold in a bank safe is subject to government seizure, paper gold is useless not truely a match: more paper than physical gold
> I naively trust a bit more pmgold that gold or other us paper versions
> But still, crypto could be an option..but you still need to trust someone as gold is physical



For trading it may possibly take off.
Gold bugs and crypto enthusiasts generally don't trust central authorities where govt can come in and take your gold/coins.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> For trading it may possibly take off.
> Gold bugs and crypto enthusiasts generally don't trust central authorities where govt can come in and take your gold/coins.



Neither do i indeed


----------



## qldfrog

Could be an alternative to pmgold for foreign investors


----------



## moXJO

Its been a while since I've traded any metals but depending on what platform takes up the coins it may make trading physical easier. Spread possibly reduced and instant transactions. 
I think I use to do physical from phone where they would lock in the price. Or have to make physical delivery and take what they offered. 
Perth mint has had a few goes at this. They had allocated storage that you could trade on account before. Blockchain may be the thing that works.
Downside is if you lose your key or someone hacks/frauds the platform. 
Remember Mt gox.


----------



## rederob

Below is the 30-minute POG chart over the past 2 months:



After bottoming on 1 October it has failed to penetrate $1520 on the upside, while finding good support around $1480 on the low side.
I like the trading range - little volatility - as it is positioning nicely for another move north imho.
Although not drawn on the chart, yesterday's jump broke the downtrend in place from 4 September... so maybe an omen?
There are no indicators suggesting the gold market has soured so waiting a bit longer just strengthens the next advance. 
Elsewhere at ASF there were some posts on Newcrest.  Just be aware that NCM adds copper credits to its income stream, and copper's future is more predictably bright than gold's over the next few years.


----------



## rederob

Since last posting a chart, POG slipped under trend but has bounced off primary support.
I have my eyes on what's happening in the USA wrt to Trump impeachment hearings and have a suspicion that this will unsettle markets in weeks to come.  How much depends on what the Democrats can substantiate and get traction from US voters - read "polling" on Trump impeachment.
It's a bit of a long bow, but having watched every minute of witness testimonies, and gaining a new respect for Adam Schiff, Trump's tenure is sinking into quicksand.
Countering my ideas are the reality that no matter how stupid we think Trump might be, the US economy is not on the rocks and the trade war with China has not turned global markets sour.
My view is if POG can push through $1485 in coming weeks then we are in for some sustainable upward momentum into 2020, where I see $1650 becoming the next medium term target.


----------



## wayneL

rederob said:


> Since last posting a chart, POG slipped under trend but has bounced off primary support.
> I have my eyes on what's happening in the USA wrt to Trump impeachment hearings and have a suspicion that this will unsettle markets in weeks to come.  How much depends on what the Democrats can substantiate and get traction from US voters - read "polling" on Trump impeachment.
> It's a bit of a long bow, but having watched every minute of witness testimonies, and gaining a new respect for Adam Schiff, Trump's tenure is sinking into quicksand.
> Countering my ideas are the reality that no matter how stupid we think Trump might be, the US economy is not on the rocks and the trade war with China has not turned global markets sour.
> My view is if POG can push through $1485 in coming weeks then we are in for some sustainable upward momentum into 2020, where I see $1650 becoming the next medium term target.
> 
> View attachment 98701



Do you really think the price of gold, or any other instrument for that matter, plays to the tune of technical analysis?

In other words, are you using technical analysis as a means of predicting price movements, or as a means setting of price boundaries for the purpose of trading? ... Vis a vis entries and exits?


----------



## rederob

Here is POG as we head into the end of the year:


A close above $1485 will bode well into 2020.


----------



## sptrawler

I think the price of gold and its direction in the immediate future, is going to be linked to Trump's China trade deal, if a constructive outcome is struck a lot of uncertainty will go out of the market.
This in turn will drive the market higher and gold should see a reversal, if the trade deal falls through and Trump gets chucked out, I would think gold will sky rocket and the market go over a cliff.
Just my opinion.


----------



## rederob

What a difference a day makes... 


Bring on 2020.


----------



## rederob

Always good to get a Christmas present wrapped in gold:


The 30-minute chart for the past 30 days is heartening and unusual for three reasons.
First, the UK's Brexit election did little to move the market, in fact gold dipped a tad the Monday afterwards.
Next, Trump's impeachment did exactly nothing for POG as it meandered through an uneventful $10 range on 19 December.
Finally, we have Trump and Xi today agreeing to meet and sign off on their recent trade deal.
Looks like I will have to spend a lot more time reading across the many sites that attempt to explain this as it seems counterintuitive.


----------



## gartley

rederob said:


> Always good to get a Christmas present wrapped in gold:
> 
> 
> The 30-minute chart for the past 30 days is heartening and unusual for three reasons.
> First, the UK's Brexit election did little to move the market, in fact gold dipped a tad the Monday afterwards.
> Next, Trump's impeachment did exactly nothing for POG as it meandered through an uneventful $10 range on 19 December.
> Finally, we have Trump and Xi today agreeing to meet and sign off on their recent trade deal.
> Looks like I will have to spend a lot more time reading across the many sites that attempt to explain this as it seems counterintuitive.



Looking for reasons as to what moves markets especially when it does not make sense can be so annoying.
I just look at one chart which has served me well) This chart sucgests Gold continues rally into next year perhaps till early March  before either consolidation or pullback


rederob said:


> Always good to get a Christmas present wrapped in gold:
> 
> 
> The 30-minute chart for the past 30 days is heartening and unusual for three reasons.
> First, the UK's Brexit election did little to move the market, in fact gold dipped a tad the Monday afterwards.
> Next, Trump's impeachment did exactly nothing for POG as it meandered through an uneventful $10 range on 19 December.
> Finally, we have Trump and Xi today agreeing to meet and sign off on their recent trade deal.
> Looks like I will have to spend a lot more time reading across the many sites that attempt to explain this as it seems counterintuitive.



Sometimes looking for reasons as to what moves the market can be very annoying and in a large part a waste of time. 
Better to trade the market that is right in front of us)). 
FWIW I only use one tool for long term investing in gold, the following chart which has stood the test of time. Suggests that gold continues to rally into Match and thereafter will either consolidate or correct. 
Additionally the same analysis on other instruments traded against USD suggest likewise


----------



## rederob

gartley said:


> Sometimes looking for reasons as to what moves the market can be very annoying and in a large part a waste of time.



I like your charts.
It's true that looking for reasons is very different to just trading the action but as a long-term investor in 4 equities exposed to gold rather than a trader I am looking for reasons that make sense to *get out *of gold, should they appear compelling.
My sense tells me that while global uncertainty is the underlying driver of what I consider to be a new long-term bull market, how that uncertainty manifests from discrete events is somewhat unimportant.  If that "sense" is right then March 2020 might prove for you to be some form of pivot, but unless it lights the fires of global economic growth then it will continue later into 2020 to be subsumed by the lingering uncertainty.
If I can learn anything more over the next few weeks that makes sense I will certainly post it.
Until then we gold bugs enjoyed enjoyed 2019 and look forward to becoming 2020 visionaries .


----------



## gartley

rederob said:


> I like your charts.
> It's true that looking for reasons is very different to just trading the action but as a long-term investor in 4 equities exposed to gold rather than a trader I am looking for reasons that make sense to *get out *of gold, should they appear compelling.
> My sense tells me that while global uncertainty is the underlying driver of what I consider to be a new long-term bull market, how that uncertainty manifests from discrete events is somewhat unimportant.  If that "sense" is right then March 2020 might prove for you to be some form of pivot, but unless it lights the fires of global economic growth then it will continue later into 2020 to be subsumed by the lingering uncertainty.
> If I can learn anything more over the next few weeks that makes sense I will certainly post it.
> Until then we gold bugs enjoyed enjoyed 2019 and look forward to becoming 2020 visionaries .



Yep 2019 certainly was a good year)) 
Others will say why gold? Especially since stocks in US markets have risen so much the last some months.
Those who where brave enough to hold through the volatility in 2019 have been well rewarded. Unfortunately I am not one of those as I have a fear of holding stocks that are trading at multiples of 25 times earnings and have risen on a dream.
For me it's a case of staying away from what's popular at this point in time and looking to park $$$ in what is unpopular.
2020 will not be a good year for stocks IMO and gold bugs should be rewarded initially in the year but I would not be surprised if gold and gold stocks are later caught up in a potential equity market downdraught in some way


----------



## ducati916

gartley said:


> 2020 will not be a good year for stocks IMO and gold bugs should be rewarded initially in the year but I would not be surprised if gold and gold stocks are later caught up in a potential equity market downdraught in some way




I would agree for the following reasons:

(a) Gold over the last 5yrs correlated with the Euro and Treasuries (slight time lag);
(b) Until Q4 2018;
(c) When it diverged from Euro and followed Treasuries (correlated with US Dollar).

Currently, both Dollar and Treasuries are experiencing a pullback. May not develop into anything. If it does, then Gold will follow most likely. Gold stocks (Miners) are more volatile than Gold itself and have also outperformed to the upside by +/- 15%.

Currently energy commodities are moving higher led by Oil. The Euro and commodities are correlated. Strength in commodities and Euro, mean a weaker Dollar, which will likely weaken Treasuries. Gold and US stocks are therefore vulnerable currently.

The likely catalyst for commodities is a strengthening Chinese market, obviously a consumer of commodities and Brazil a supplier is also recovering.

Shipping is also following China and energy in coming off of the lows.

In the US Market specifically, Healthcare (outperformer) is coming off slightly. Food & drink is (underperformer) turning up, suggesting some sector rotation is in play currently. There will be others also I suspect.

All-in-all, some (possible) early warning signs for US markets and currently Gold.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

https://www.tradingview.com/x/D66bswID/


gartley said:


> Yep 2019 certainly was a good year))
> Others will say why gold? Especially since stocks in US markets have risen so much the last some months.
> Those who where brave enough to hold through the volatility in 2019 have been well rewarded. Unfortunately I am not one of those as I have a fear of holding stocks that are trading at multiples of 25 times earnings and have risen on a dream.
> For me it's a case of staying away from what's popular at this point in time and looking to park $$$ in what is unpopular.
> 2020 will not be a good year for stocks IMO and gold bugs should be rewarded initially in the year but I would not be surprised if gold and gold stocks are later caught up in a potential equity market downdraught in some way



POG has a ratcheting effect and nobody here is grasping how it works.
As the bull market consolidates, and it is surely doing this now, producers are locking in forward supply at considerably higher prices than their legacy hedge books had allowed. This in turn will see gold-based equities realise solid profits in the main through to 2021.  In that light it is difficult to think that equities could do poorly in the medium term.
The psychological effect of equities doing well has a positive effect on traded gold.  To counteract this ratcheting effect we will need to see something in global markets that no longer renders gold as a practical store of wealth in the prevailing environment.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> My view is if POG can push through $1485 in coming weeks then we are in for some sustainable upward momentum into 2020, where I see $1650 becoming the next medium term target.



Here's what gold has been doing in the past month:



Again, the psychology of markets suggests that gold will not be meandering into the new year.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. POG has a ratcheting effect and nobody here is grasping how it works.
> 
> 2. As the bull market consolidates, and it is surely doing this now, producers are locking in forward supply at considerably higher prices than their legacy hedge books had allowed. This in turn will see gold-based equities realise solid profits in the main through to 2021.  In that light it is difficult to think that equities could do poorly in the medium term.
> 
> 3. The psychological effect of equities doing well has a positive effect on traded gold.  To counteract this ratcheting effect we will need to see something in global markets that no longer renders gold as a practical store of wealth in the prevailing environment.




1. There is a ratcheting effect, but it is not significant enough, in the absence of something additional, to break Gold's current correlations. So: from 2004, when Gold is in its bottom percentile (10%) there is an additional 1.3% of juice in the trade. When at the top (90%) percentile, there is additional juice of another 1.9% (normal expectations would be negative in the 90% percentile). This is why Gold often diverges for a month or two when other correlated markets turn lower.

2. Markets are forward looking. Discounting. Those future earnings are already largely in the price.

3. Gold is already currently trading as a currency, not as a commodity. It has diverged from other commodities already. As already indicated, other currencies, US Dollar, might have put in a top. If they have and now trend lower, continuing into a Dollar bear market, this will have an effect on US Treasury paper and Gold, although Gold may lag by a few months.

So what percentile is Gold currently? Currently Gold sits at 67%. Therefore it has not reached that point where it would run on its own momentum for a further gain. On that basis I would expect to see Gold head lower if the Treasury market falls further.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. There is a ratcheting effect, but it is not significant enough, in the absence of something additional, to break Gold's current correlations. So: from 2004, when Gold is in its bottom percentile (10%) there is an additional 1.3% of juice in the trade. When at the top (90%) percentile, there is additional juice of another 1.9% (normal expectations would be negative in the 90% percentile). This is why Gold often diverges for a month or two when other correlated markets turn lower.
> 
> 2. Markets are forward looking. Discounting. Those future earnings are already largely in the price.
> 
> 3. Gold is already currently trading as a currency, not as a commodity. It has diverged from other commodities already. As already indicated, other currencies, US Dollar, might have put in a top. If they have and now trend lower, continuing into a Dollar bear market, this will have an effect on US Treasury paper and Gold, although Gold may lag by a few months.
> 
> So what percentile is Gold currently? Currently Gold sits at 67%. Therefore it has not reached that point where it would run on its own momentum for a further gain. On that basis I would expect to see Gold head lower if the Treasury market falls further.
> 
> jog on
> duc



You should reflect on your historical ability to get POG analyses right.
But thanks, as if ever there were a contra-indicator of probable outcome, your posts are it.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> You should reflect on your historical ability to get POG analyses right.
> But thanks, as if ever there were a contra-indicator of probable outcome, your posts are it.




I think that you misread my initial post: I was simply agreeing that in the short timeframes, gold could well have a pullback in response to rising interest rates.

The Evidence:

Gold correlates to interest rates in the shorter timeframes.




Self explanatory really.

However, if you are looking for a much longer term analysis, then I can provide that also. I am a long term gold bull, no question.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> I think that you misread my initial post: I was simply agreeing that in the short timeframes, gold could well have a pullback in response to rising interest rates.
> 
> The Evidence:
> 
> Gold correlates to interest rates in the shorter timeframes.
> 
> View attachment 99304
> 
> 
> Self explanatory really.
> 
> However, if you are looking for a much longer term analysis, then I can provide that also. I am a long term gold bull, no question.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Given that gold is a hedge against inflation then it is somewhat trivial that you get a correlation.
As your chart notes, one problem is that that direction and quantum can differ substantially, as the below  linkage shows for shorter time frames: 



The real problem for us all is that we do not know what the future holds for either TIPS or GLD, so I revert to what I think is going to be the greater driving force in the long term.
While I am, like you, a gold bull this time around I will look more closely at timing an exit after POG has breached $2500.


----------



## ducati916

_1. Given that gold is a hedge against inflation then it is somewhat trivial that you get a correlation.
As your chart notes, one problem is that that direction and quantum can differ substantially, as the below  linkage shows for shorter time frames: 


2. The real problem for us all is that we do not know what the future holds for either TIPS or GLD, so I revert to what I think is going to be the greater driving force in the long term.
While I am, like you, a gold bull this time around I will look more closely at timing an exit after POG has breached $2500.

_
1. You seem to have focussed on the unimportant at the expense of the important. The 'quantum' is simply volatility. Yes, gold and gold equities are more volatile. Unimportant. What is important is the strength of the correlation, particularly when there is a lag one t'other. TIPS lag the 20Yr. The 20Yr is currently signalling what?




Difficult to say with any certainty:






Which is why you would also consider the other markets (commodities, etc.) and their inter-relationships. Currently the message is simply pay attention and watch. Nothing much more than that. Oil however might be making a run at $80 +/-.

Also consider the Euro, which correlates to commodity prices:




However the Euro is also a Hedge Fund 'short' in a major convergence trade, which, if it is unwinding, will place selling pressure on US rates. Why would it unravel? Well remember the 1 day Repo market event earlier in the year where there was no repo at any price...Hedge Funds (the bigger ones) access the Repo market and if they cannot obtain short term finance, will need to close out positions, thus reversing their positions if volatility picks up (short Euro long Treasury to long Euro short Treasury).

Either way, something (short term) could well be afoot. Hence my earlier post re. short term. Whether it develops into something (or is already something) a bit longer term is the question.

Possibly absolutely nothing comes of it and gold continues to trend higher based on consumer price inflation, which governments the world over simply ignore. A more sinister manifestation would see Producer Price inflation move higher as producer margins would be squeezed.

Oil is the market where this will show up. Already we have falling rig counts, increased bankruptcies in the shale space and falling capital spending in the majors resulting from low prices since 2016. How fast could they bring supply back online in the face of (significantly) higher prices? Would they even want to?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> _1. Given that gold is a hedge against inflation then it is somewhat trivial that you get a correlation.
> As your chart notes, one problem is that that direction and quantum can differ substantially, as the below  linkage shows for shorter time frames:
> 
> 
> 2. The real problem for us all is that we do not know what the future holds for either TIPS or GLD, so I revert to what I think is going to be the greater driving force in the long term.
> While I am, like you, a gold bull this time around I will look more closely at timing an exit after POG has breached $2500.
> 
> _
> 1. You seem to have focussed on the unimportant at the expense of the important. The 'quantum' is simply volatility. Yes, gold and gold equities are more volatile. Unimportant. What is important is the strength of the correlation, particularly when there is a lag one t'other. TIPS lag the 20Yr. The 20Yr is currently signalling what?
> 
> View attachment 99315
> 
> 
> Difficult to say with any certainty:
> 
> View attachment 99316
> 
> View attachment 99317
> 
> 
> Which is why you would also consider the other markets (commodities, etc.) and their inter-relationships. Currently the message is simply pay attention and watch. Nothing much more than that. Oil however might be making a run at $80 +/-.
> 
> Also consider the Euro, which correlates to commodity prices:
> 
> View attachment 99319
> 
> 
> However the Euro is also a Hedge Fund 'short' in a major convergence trade, which, if it is unwinding, will place selling pressure on US rates. Why would it unravel? Well remember the 1 day Repo market event earlier in the year where there was no repo at any price...Hedge Funds (the bigger ones) access the Repo market and if they cannot obtain short term finance, will need to close out positions, thus reversing their positions if volatility picks up (short Euro long Treasury to long Euro short Treasury).
> 
> Either way, something (short term) could well be afoot. Hence my earlier post re. short term. Whether it develops into something (or is already something) a bit longer term is the question.
> 
> Possibly absolutely nothing comes of it and gold continues to trend higher based on consumer price inflation, which governments the world over simply ignore. A more sinister manifestation would see Producer Price inflation move higher as producer margins would be squeezed.
> 
> Oil is the market where this will show up. Already we have falling rig counts, increased bankruptcies in the shale space and falling capital spending in the majors resulting from low prices since 2016. How fast could they bring supply back online in the face of (significantly) higher prices? Would they even want to?
> 
> jog on
> duc



The issue is not with the correlations but, instead, that they are always post-fact.  Thus, unless you know the direction of the leading indicator with some degree of high plausibility then whatever else comes after that is word salad.  That is not meant as an attack on you.
With regard to oil, we now have USA Permain LTO in play to ameliorate price rises and there is an excellent thread covering this at Oilprice.com.  Bottom line is that once prices get over US$60/bbl then marginal producers will unleash.  WRT to rig count, it is no longer a valuable metric as walking oil rigs are the new normal.


----------



## ducati916

_The issue is not with the correlations but, instead, that they are always post-fact.  Thus, unless you know the direction of the leading indicator with some degree of high plausibility then whatever else comes after that is word salad.  _


Correlations are subject to 'technical analysis' as are any positions and are a fortiori. So if your argument is that the evidence is currently stronger (short term) for continued gold appreciation...yes I agree.

My argument is simply that there are early indications that things may not be as rosy as the current analysis suggests. They may amount to nothing.

The point is tactical, not strategic. It is (potentially) a way to increase profits, where the strategy is a longer term hold.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> My argument is simply that there are early indications that things may not be as rosy as the current analysis suggests. They may amount to nothing.



Again, not attacking your points but the analysis here is rudimentary although I am not sure that writing pages more will make a big difference.
I was motivated to return to ASF this year after a very long self-imposed absence after (if I recall correctly) I said I would not post at ASF again until POG breached some very high figure (was it $1000 or $1500 - I can't recall).
Anyhow late last year all the right ingredients seemed to be in place and my early posts in this thread were along the lines of:







rederob said:


> What is promising is that the term of POG consolidation has ripened for another pounce on a new high. However, until POG definitively crashes through $1350 methinks it's presently premature.



And a bit later on:


rederob said:


> So I am tipping POG to breach $1500 this year with my usual certainty (ie. there is no such thing).



I have no ability to "predict" anything, and make no claims.
But I reckon I can work out trends from analysis far better than many.
In relation to gold, it's a commodity I have tried to divine for over 30 years and tend to get a lot more right than wrong.
Like most of us here, the trick is making money out of what we would like to think we know.


----------



## ducati916

Same problem as NG, a little out of date:




Commercials (at least until 20 Dec.) were leaning against Gold and price had stalled. I accept that in the intervening period, their position could have flippe-flopped.

However compare the April/May position (selling but far lighter thereby 'allowing' the breakout) to the current position where the selling is still heavy (possibly this changes on the update). Assuming for the moment it remains similar/same, do you still think that a new highs are the higher probability outcome?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Assuming for the moment it remains similar/same, do you still think that a new highs are the higher probability outcome?



Most of the short positions have now unwound so downside movements of magnitude will need some sort of obvious trigger.  In that light the only meaningful trajectory for gold is upwards.
My view is $1650 this year is a very likely outcome and a spurt to $1800 with a bumpy retrace cannot be ruled out given gold's momentum.  It just needs some convergence of nasty short-term geopolitical events to kick it off, eg. more oil refinery/tanker disruptions in the Middle East.


----------



## rederob

Where we are now is akin to where we were around August, where the Bollinger band is playing catch-up.  My view is that this present move will reconsolidate above $1550 before another tilt at a new high.



And if history repeats:



So gold bugs can sit back, relax and enjoy the ride, which is of course impossible because when the action starts this ride is more adrenaline than a roller coaster.


----------



## ducati916

So 2 arguments to put forward.






Argument 1.

(a) Inflation (energy) is upticking; and
(b) Interest rates are adjusting to this uptick in inflation; and
(c) Gold has also tracked the rise in inflation since July +/-

(d) Assuming that the Fed does not intervene in the longer dated end of the curve, then rates are set to rise (probably) in proportion to the rate of increase in inflation.

My position is that Gold will track interest rates (with a lag) and if rates are moving higher, Gold either consolidates or weakens.

Argument 2.

From the COT we see (although this is potentially open to change) heavy selling pressure. Why?

(a) The Commercials respond to Producer order flows: thus Producers have been selling heavily. Why?




Energy which is an input to production seems to have bottomed and is potentially moving higher towards a top end of a range. Thus 'margins' are somewhat (potentially) compressed. Hence when there is a move higher in POG, (increased margin) Producers are quickly locking that margin in as QE/QT/Etc are (supposedly) finished and unwinding, thus the long end of the curve is free to limit inflation to the (supposed) 2%+/- target rate.

There are all sorts of arguments re. what is the real rate, but in the absence of anything concrete, the market numbers are the best we have, as manipulated as they are.

In Summary:

If the Fed re-enters the long end and re-instigates some form of QE, Gold definitely goes higher again assuming POO continues higher (which I think it does for a little while at least, irrespective of Fed action/inaction based on falling supply over the next 24 months from US Shale) and a close watch on the US dollar and rates will be required.

What think you?

jog on
duc


----------



## tinhat

Firstly a caveat. I've never followed gold very much and in the past all my speculative forays into gold miners have ended in disaster. That said, currently I am in a couple of gold miners (SAR, AQG) and also hold IGO which produce a bit of gold too. So I am doing a bit of strategic thinking for the year ahead and tossing up where to allocate some funds between gold, nickel and copper miners. I'm bullish nickel and copper but don't have the same conviction over the gold price going forward.

Yesterday I a came across this interview with Andrew Maquire (worth doing a google on him). Worth listening to whether or not you agree with his commentary. In the conversation these guys spruik Kinesis.money That lead me to this podcast about kinesis.money have a quick look into Kinesis.money.

I don't have a view about kinesis.money as a business but the business idea is very interesting. I also don't know if they are or intend to go down the path of using blockchain in their platform, but if they are smart they probably should be.

I also stumbled upon this ted talk by Don Tapscott about blockchain yesterday (its from 2016 but a good introduction as to why blockchain will displace the role of market intermediaries for assets including for fiat currency). The interesting topic that the Tapscott video and Kinesis.money podcast have in common is the huge amount of money that gets transferred internationally by foreign workers repatriating money to their families.

Anyway, being able to store value in non-fiat assets such as gold but transfer that value via blockchain seems to me to be future of the global monetary system; especially given that western central banks are trapped in a cycle of deflating the value of their fiat currencies to feed debt.

For me at least, given the reality that blockchain will revolutionize how assets and value is stored and transferred, the penny has dropped that gold can and will be a more and more important store of value as we see the role of banks and fiat money in the global monetary system inevitably diminish. With these thoughts I am a bit more bullish on the price of gold into the medium term.


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> So 2 arguments to put forward.
> Argument 1.
> (a) Inflation (energy) is upticking; and
> (b) Interest rates are adjusting to this uptick in inflation; and
> (c) Gold has also tracked the rise in inflation since July +/-
> (d) Assuming that the Fed does not intervene in the longer dated end of the curve, then rates are set to rise (probably) in proportion to the rate of increase in inflation.
> 
> My position is that Gold will track interest rates (with a lag) and if rates are moving higher, Gold either consolidates or weakens.
> 
> Argument 2.
> From the COT we see (although this is potentially open to change) heavy selling pressure. Why?
> (a) The Commercials respond to Producer order flows: thus Producers have been selling heavily. Why?
> [Energy which is an input to production seems to have bottomed and is potentially moving higher towards a top end of a range. Thus 'margins' are somewhat (potentially) compressed. Hence when there is a move higher in POG, (increased margin) Producers are quickly locking that margin in as QE/QT/Etc are (supposedly) finished and unwinding, thus the long end of the curve is free to limit inflation to the (supposed) 2%+/- target rate.
> 
> There are all sorts of arguments re. what is the real rate, but in the absence of anything concrete, the market numbers are the best we have, as manipulated as they are.
> 
> In Summary:
> If the Fed re-enters the long end and re-instigates some form of QE, Gold definitely goes higher again assuming POO continues higher (which I think it does for a little while at least, irrespective of Fed action/inaction based on falling supply over the next 24 months from US Shale) and a close watch on the US dollar and rates will be required.
> 
> What think you?



Nowadays I would only use oil as a consideration if there were a major oil shock, and this clearly would affect economies.  As it stands the POO is inconsequential at most levels and anyway gold producers are presently looking at reducing energy costs through renewables *and *are being successful.
While not something I could ever measure, I had a sense that gold's long consolidation was in part due to big money looking at cryptocurrencies and eventually a good number have learned that physical trumps fiat value.  Cryptocurrencies are no longer the poster children they were so they are gravitating back to gold as the best store of wealth.
As you have shown, there are lots of economic indicators out here that will have some influence.  But they vary in strength and circumstance and never congeal.  If I find one or, for that matter, had found one in the past 30 years, then I would be writing this from a luxury yacht moored at a tropical paradise.
My preference is to keep things really simple:
We appear to be in a market where gold is rising and the reasons are *not *obvious.
Gold has done this before.
There are no reasoned arguments for the price of gold to crash.
All in sustaining costs for gold production continue to rise.
Producers are now going to be locking-in forward delivery prices in the plus $1500+ range or otherwise delivering into spot which will be hundreds of dollars higher than legacy hedged prices.
The gear change shift in momentum, based on historical trends, is likely to persevere for years.
There will be dips - there always are - so keep an eye out for where value lies and be ready for the next uptick.
Finally, and potentially more importantly, China's increasing global importance cum dominance in world affairs may, in the present long-term gold bull that I see materialising, lead to major disconnects in gold correlations with the many and varied economic indicators, thereby propelling POG above my wildly optimistic dreams.


----------



## rederob

Into the new year and gold is still climbing.
This link is an excellent read and its many charts show how much headroom is still free before the next inevitable retrace.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Into the new year and gold is still climbing.
> This link is an excellent read and its many charts show how much headroom is still free before the next inevitable retrace.





Having just read the article where the author refers to a bull market in gold relative to the Aus $ and Yen, both of those currencies are in current bear markets relative to the US $. Of course that may change. Currencies generally lead, which means if policy seeks a strong US $ rates may follow (assuming that the dollar does weaken), which could change the dynamic.

If the US $ starts to fall and Aus $ and Yen rise, then gold enters a bull market relative to US $ and bear market as against the others.

Essentially (the above), says absolutely nothing of any importance about gold as against the US $. It only makes sense to discuss gold against a consistent currency (whichever one you want), but is usually the US $.

jog on
duc


----------



## tinhat

ducati916 said:


> Having just read the article where the author refers to a bull market in gold relative to the Aus $ and Yen, both of those currencies are in current bear markets relative to the US $. Of course that may change. Currencies generally lead, which means if policy seeks a strong US $ rates may follow (assuming that the dollar does weaken), which could change the dynamic.
> 
> If the US $ starts to fall and Aus $ and Yen rise, then gold enters a bull market relative to US $ and bear market as against the others.
> 
> Essentially (the above), says absolutely nothing of any importance about gold as against the US $. It only makes sense to discuss gold against a consistent currency (whichever one you want), but is usually the US $.
> 
> jog on
> duc




As stated earlier, if one subscribes to the theory that the price trend of Au and the price trend of AUD are generally correlated, something has to give; the AUD is already out of alignment with the price of Au. Interest rate differentials between different jurisdictions doesn't mean anything any more. Money is becoming worthless. My gut prediction is that gold is not going to retrace far and will rise in the medium term, commodity prices are going to rise over 2020 calendar year and the AUD will be up against the USD.


----------



## ducati916

tinhat said:


> As stated earlier, if one subscribes to the theory that the price trend of Au and the price trend of AUD are generally correlated, something has to give; the AUD is already out of alignment with the price of Au. Interest rate differentials between different jurisdictions doesn't mean anything any more. Money is becoming worthless. My gut prediction is that gold is not going to retrace far and will rise in the medium term, commodity prices are going to rise over 2020 calendar year and the AUD will be up against the USD.





I would argue that most (here) agree that Gold is money. Most would agree that Gold is also sound money. Those that seek relief from endless inflation, eventually end up with Gold as part of their holdings. I also expect (over time) that Gold rises, so would classify myself as a Gold bull.

The problem is that Gold competes against other asset classes for investor money.

So my issue is this: 1980 +/- Gold enters a long bear market. Why?

Fast forward to today. There are (serious) bull markets in: US Stocks, US Bonds, Real Estate, US$
Bear markets in commodities, certain currencies.

The (recent high) at US 1800/1900 has not yet been exceeded.
Is this current run higher the start of the next leg higher (new all time highs); or
Simply a bounce, before a further decline?

On a simply chart basis, we are still at an unknown point. It cannot be confirmed that the bull that started in 2001 +/- is now continuing and it cannot be denied either. The point is moot.

Many things could yet change.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> On a simply chart basis, we are still at an unknown point. It cannot be confirmed that the bull that started in 2001 +/- is now continuing and it cannot be denied either. The point is moot.



It also depends on what time scales you are working to for your comments and I am not sure that most people would regard a 6-year lull in gold's ascent - ie 2013 to 2019 - a *bull market*.
On the other hand at a greater time scale the underpinning of gold's value is tied to US debt levels and the fact is that many people now regard its debt as unsustainable:



I suspect most at ASF work to time scales of less than 5 years for their investment decision and am happy to be corrected.
In that light I for one am looking at the most likely scenarios that will move POG this year and next, as I believe that the hedge books of equities can see POG rise well after its practical use-by date (in other words the indicators can turn negative and remain negative for the next year before POG declines significantly).



tinhat said:


> As stated earlier, if one subscribes to the theory that the price trend of Au and the price trend of AUD are generally correlated, something has to give; the AUD is already out of alignment with the price of Au. Interest rate differentials between different jurisdictions doesn't mean anything any more. Money is becoming worthless. My gut prediction is that gold is not going to retrace far and will rise in the medium term, commodity prices are going to rise over 2020 calendar year and the AUD will be up against the USD.



I am on board with all your points - for now.
I will repeat the point I made previously about correlations in that they are *post-fact*.  To make money from a strong correlation you must know the direction of the lead indicator.  In the short term POG and the $USD are more positively correlated than POG and the $AUD.  Both are heading for rate cuts.  The short term likelihood for POG to continue rising seems much better than the chance it will decline meaningfully.  The next question then relates to follow-through.  And that is largely predicated on the global economy which we all can see as currently in relatively poor shape.  So where @ducati916 and I differ relates to what we regard as "*moot*."


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> My view is $1650 this year is a very likely outcome and a spurt to $1800 with a bumpy retrace cannot be ruled out given gold's momentum. It just needs some convergence of nasty short-term geopolitical events to kick it off, eg. more oil refinery/tanker disruptions in the Middle East.



Well this might happen sooner rather than later.
Nice spike today:


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> It also depends on what time scales you are working to for your comments and I am not sure that most people would regard a 6-year lull in gold's ascent - ie 2013 to 2019 - a *bull market*.
> On the other hand at a greater time scale the underpinning of gold's value is tied to US debt levels and the fact is that many people now regard its debt as unsustainable:
> 
> 
> 
> I suspect most at ASF work to time scales of less than 5 years for their investment decision and am happy to be corrected.
> In that light I for one am looking at the most likely scenarios that will move POG this year and next, as I believe that the hedge books of equities can see POG rise well after its practical use-by date (in other words the indicators can turn negative and remain negative for the next year before POG declines significantly).
> 
> I am on board with all your points - for now.
> I will repeat the point I made previously about correlations in that they are *post-fact*.  To make money from a strong correlation you must know the direction of the lead indicator.  In the short term POG and the $USD are more positively correlated than POG and the $AUD.  Both are heading for rate cuts.  The short term likelihood for POG to continue rising seems much better than the chance it will decline meaningfully.  The next question then relates to follow-through.  And that is largely predicated on the global economy which we all can see as currently in relatively poor shape.  So where @ducati916 and I differ relates to what we regard as "*moot*."





Love the chart!

Some facts:

1980 - Q1 2003 (22 years) US debt compounded at 9.57% (Gold went into a bear market).
2003 - Q4 2019 (16 years) US debt compounded at 8.17% (Gold in a bull market).




So Gold is not correlated (on those figures) to US debt at all.

What did happen from 1982'ish to the present is that Bonds went into a bull market (Rates falling).

In 1970, rates started to rise. The issue being that they rose at a slower rate than the real rate of inflation until Volcker, who took over in 1979 and jacked them higher than inflation. That's when Gold entered a bear market. Until then, Gold had been in a bull market.

The takeaway seems to be Producer Price Inflation (commodity prices) is the true issue for Gold. The reason being that it crushes profitability of businesses and leads to all manner of economic issues. Consumer price inflation is (seemingly) less of an issue.

Commodity prices have been in an extended bear market. Bonds in an extended bull market.

My questions are: (a) what happens to Gold if those two trends flippe-floppe?; and
                           (b) Will the level of debt, influence the level of rates at any point?


jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Some facts:
> 1980 - Q1 2003 (22 years) US debt compounded at 9.57% (Gold went into a bear market).
> 2003 - Q4 2019 (16 years) US debt compounded at 8.17% (Gold in a bull market).
> 
> View attachment 99428
> 
> *So Gold is not correlated (on those figures) to US debt at all.*



*Versus:*
*




*


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> *Versus:*
> *
> 
> 
> 
> *





Again, fantastic chart.

Ok, I would be interested to see the calculation of the correlation coefficient on the actual price data  because it is a mathematical function of the data that it is positive for a positive connection (as one quantity increases, so does the other) and a calculation can demonstrate whether the connection is significant.

The chart claims 90%. That looks incorrect.

We have three periods: 1980 to late 1984,  1987 to 2002 where gold goes lower and debt goes higher. The third period is 2012 to current (the eyeball test).

I would be very surprised if it turned out to be 90%. 

Is it any use as a 'trading signal'? I would say yes, as long as you are operating in a lifetime sort of trade.

Talking about bull/bear markets and consolidations: the (current) volatility (eye test) still looks a little high to qualify as a clean consolidation (thus separating one bull market from another).

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Ok, I would be interested to see the calculation of the correlation coefficient on the actual price data because it is a mathematical function of the data that it is positive for a positive connection (as one quantity increases, so does the other) and a calculation can demonstrate whether the connection is significant.
> The chart claims 90%. That looks incorrect.



Not my correlation so I cannot check, but the correlation is definitely positive over the period and you do not need numbers to see that.


ducati916 said:


> Is it any use as a 'trading signal'? I would say yes, as long as you are operating in a lifetime sort of trade.



This just tells us there is a low probability of making a trade that goes completely sour if you have the stomach to keep your investment through the bad times.
There are lots of trading indicators that we can use for our investment decisions so take your pick.


----------



## barney

Appreciate the good commentary being presented by you chaps above


----------



## Bill M

Big moves in gold price in the last 24 hours.
$2,230.63
+$45.36
+2.08%


----------



## tinhat

Bill M said:


> Big moves in gold price in the last 24 hours.
> $2,230.63
> +$45.36
> +2.08%



That's what happens when people start shooting missiles.


----------



## fergee

Gold goes


tinhat said:


> That's what happens when people start shooting missiles.



Gold goes on a rocket ride


----------



## ducati916

_1. Not my correlation so I cannot check, but the correlation is definitely positive over the period and you do not need numbers to see that.

2. This just tells us there is a low probability of making a trade that goes completely sour if you have the stomach to keep your investment through the bad times.

3. There are lots of trading indicators that we can use for our investment decisions so take your pick.

_
1. While the correlation does exist at certain periods, at others, it does not, which is why the correlation is certainly not 90%.

2. Based purely on that chart, you cannot be in a 'trade'. What you can do however is use gold as an insurance policy as against fiat currencies (which is pretty much what I do). If you are using trading capital and were sitting in gold 1980 - 2002 you would not have been a happy camper. The opportunity lost costs were simply too high. Even the mid 2011 to 2016 period would have been a tough one, assuming a late entry (into a drawdown period).

3. That is true. Which is why one could look to try and find a more timely trigger.  Treasury
Bonds (all 20yr) over three timeframes: 20yrs/10yrs/5yrs










The signals are timely. Not necessarily exact. Usually (not every single example) Bonds will lead Gold and confirm, while still giving timely entry/exits on Gold. You will also have the Fed periodically giving you a heads up as to where Bonds are likely to go, although that can be a tough game to play.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 2. Based purely on that chart, you cannot be in a 'trade'. What you can do however is use gold as an insurance policy as against fiat currencies (which is pretty much what I do). If you are using trading capital and were sitting in gold 1980 - 2002 you would not have been a happy camper. The opportunity lost costs were simply too high.



If I had bought into Newcrest mining at under $2 in the 1990s when I first began to trade shares I would be very happy today.


ducati916 said:


> Even the mid 2011 to 2016 period would have been a tough one, assuming a late entry (into a drawdown period).



Again that is not true as had I bought into Ramelius in 2013 at 20cents I would be a very happy camper today.
Timing the markets can be everything to traders but to investors the corollary is *time in*.


----------



## kid hustlr

Whilst I appreciate the bullishness of gold at present and the ability to trade it, I can't fathom having a large % of my portfolio as a 'buy and hold' long term position


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Whilst I appreciate the bullishness of gold at present and the ability to trade it, I can't fathom having a large % of my portfolio as a 'buy and hold' long term position




ensure you have an umbrella handy when posting those anti-estab type posts, mkay


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> If I had bought into Newcrest mining at under $2 in the 1990s when I first began to trade shares I would be very happy today.
> Again that is not true as had I bought into Ramelius in 2013 at 20cents I would be a very happy camper today.
> Timing the markets can be everything to traders but to investors the corollary is *time in*.





Well now we are talking about something different, viz. Gold Miners. You can always, via survivorship bias find something post hoc, that supports a new (different) argument.

My question would be, if we are now discussing Gold Mining companies: what on aggregate, befell the entire cohort at the relevant times? I suspect there are more dead bodies than success stories.

The response that I was expecting (as it is the rational one) is: well what drives interest rates? That would be your inflationary argument. It is producer inflation rather than consumer inflation. Commodities measure producer inflation.

Why then (in a period of rising yields) was the rise in commodities not abated, thus triggering a fall in the inflation rate and a slowing/fall in gold? Simply because the real rate of inflation was higher than the nominal yield (until Volcker) given the interplay twixt yield curves.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> My question would be, if we are now discussing Gold Mining companies: what on aggregate, befell the entire cohort at the relevant times? I suspect there are more dead bodies than success stories.



I won't go down sidetracks but just remind you that few sectors of industry are immune from going down the gurgler or being taken over.


----------



## rederob

kid hustlr said:


> Whilst I appreciate the bullishness of gold at present and the ability to trade it, I can't fathom having a large % of my portfolio as a 'buy and hold' long term position



That's a fair comment, so how many of your shares have appreciated more than 200% in the past 5 years?


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> The response that I was expecting (as it is the rational one) is: well what drives interest rates? That would be your inflationary argument. It is producer inflation rather than consumer inflation. Commodities measure producer inflation.



As this is a forum for mostly *trading *equities my basis for purchasing a gold stock to "*hold*" is based foremost on it being a producer with a reserve/resource base that will see it through no less than the next 5 years at an ASIC *substantially *lower than spot.
In simple English it means choosing a mature mining operation that, except for ongoing exploration costs, is always in the black.
I no longer buy gold equities that are speculative.


----------



## kid hustlr

rederob said:


> That's a fair comment, so how many of your shares have appreciated more than 200% in the past 5 years?




I'm not sure what you mean, gold hasn't returned that in the last 5 years, some gold stocks have but to me that's a different discussion, if one is good enough to find a solid long term Investment in a gold company all power to them. 

https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

I just did a 2 min Google but I thought this site was kind of interesting


----------



## rederob

kid hustlr said:


> I'm not sure what you mean, gold hasn't returned that in the last 5 years, some gold stocks have but to me that's a different discussion, if one is good enough to find a solid long term Investment in a gold company all power to them.
> 
> https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/
> 
> I just did a 2 min Google but I thought this site was kind of interesting



Physical and equities are different, but both can deliver long term returns.
The significant advantage of an equity is that substantially greater returns can be achieved in much less time than in holding physical.
The massive advantage of physical is that it's not going to go belly up.
Hedge your bets?


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> I won't go down sidetracks but just remind you that few sectors of industry are immune from going down the gurgler or being taken over.





Which is my point.

Particularly an industry that has new entrants when its product is at 'high' prices. Of course knowing when a price is high is another issue altogether.

But it would seem that we are in agreement here.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

_1. As this is a forum for mostly *trading *equities my basis for purchasing a 

1(a) gold stock to "*hold*" is based foremost on it being a producer with a reserve/resource base that will see it through no less than the next 5 years at an ASIC *substantially *lower than spot.

2. In simple English it means choosing a mature mining operation that, except for ongoing exploration costs, is always in the black.

3. I no longer buy gold equities that are speculative.

_
1. This forum is: this thread is gold as a commodity. 

1(a) That is not so easy, unless you are looking at quite historic data, which rather means the share price has (probably) appreciated substantially.

2. Earnings are always a margin between costs and selling prices. Just because a selling price (gold) is far above the book entry (cost basis) for reserves, does that mean that margins cannot be compressed. For example: energy costs (already partially discussed), labour costs, tax rates, price controls, tariffs, accidents, fraud, excess leverage,  etc. 'Always' is a very long time.

3. All equities are speculative. Some are simply more speculative than others.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

_


ducati916 said:



			1. This thread is *about the price of* gold as a commodity .
3. All equities are speculative. Some are simply more speculative than others. And in relation to gold equities I rely on what they have *proven *to have found rather than what they are *speculating *can be found.

Click to expand...


To be clear._


----------



## rederob

Gold Bugs Index:



versus US Dollar Index:



Note that POG has been rising in recent months while the dollar has been falling.
However, for those looking for a strong correlation, it exists from mid-2016.  
If you find that correlation helpful, so be it - I do not.


----------



## rederob

Was just about to post again on gold as a result of US pre-emptive actions in Iraq over the weekend when POG jumped over $30/oz to a shade under $1590 after opening.
Will hold off for a while to see how this progresses.


----------



## barney

rederob said:


> Was just about to post again on gold as a result of US pre-emptive actions in Iraq over the weekend when POG jumped over $30/oz to a shade under $1590 after opening.




Anyone building Short positions over the last couple of months has been taken to the cleaners

If the Gold chart were a Stock we'd be calling blue sky … Steep rise and big gap though … That gap will have to fill surely?  If it doesn't, we might have to wear a bump hat and an oxygen mask


----------



## sptrawler

barney said:


> Anyone building Short positions over the last couple of months has been taken to the cleaners
> 
> If the Gold chart were a Stock we'd be calling blue sky … Steep rise and big gap though … That gap will have to fill surely?  If it doesn't, we might have to wear a bump hat and an oxygen mask



Trump has certainly put a cat among the pigeons, as usual.


----------



## sptrawler

Not everyone is a short term gold bull.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-three-times-in-two-decades?srnd=premium-asia


----------



## ducati916

And Goldman Sachs:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...better-iran-crisis-hedge-here-goldmans-answer

jog on
duc


----------



## barney

barney said:


> That gap will have to fill surely?




Technically I guess we could call it filled yesterday within a couple of bucks?

It was brief and its on the move again …. could get steep for a day or two.


----------



## rederob

It certainly took off again this morning:


POG is setting a regular series of recent highs (just ticked over $1598) following on from the last bull run around 10 years ago.


----------



## rederob

The spike this morning was due to Iran striking the joint US-Iraqi air base at Ain al-Assad, in retailiation to the US assassination of Iran's General, Soleimani.
It is doubtful this is other than the beginning of something that can spill more widely across the region, so POG is likely to remain high for some time to come, and spike as attacks get more severe in consequence.


----------



## rederob

Just for the record, $1600 has now been taken out:


And there I was earlier this morning contemplating how wonderful it was to watch paint dry on my walls.


----------



## fergee

XAU/AUD hitting all time highs today, AXGD still ~20% below all time highs.


----------



## rederob

The "gap" after yesterday's massive spike has now been filled.


POG's retrace is most welcome as I do not like seeing parabolic price rises given the fall tends to be hard and fast.


----------



## ducati916

Bonds resume their climb in yield.

Coincidence?




jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Bonds resume their climb in yield.
> Coincidence?



Sorry, I forgot how closely the Iranians were watching that chart and had to attack an airbase to spur the POG.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Sorry, I forgot how closely the Iranians were watching that chart and had to attack an airbase to spur the POG.





Not the Iranians old chap, just those that consider Gold and Treasuries as interchangeable investments competing for those (same) investment dollars.


jog on
duc


----------



## rederob




----------



## rederob

Short-term POG is consolidating in the $1540s and the overall trend is *UP*.
Downside represents further opportunities for buying into gold producers who will now be locking in sales at around AUD$500/oz more than negotiated in 2018.


----------



## rederob

Next Tuesday sees Trump's impeachment trial underway so unless the Republicans can change the former rules as to how the trial is to progress, I suspect POG to stay high.  There were some interesting revelations that came to light over the past few days but so far the Republicans have swept them aside.  Trump will only come unstuck if witnesses are allowed to testify and as the Republicans run the Senate, that is unlikely.


----------



## ducati916

Lagging inflation:




jog on
duc


----------



## fergee

@ducati916 chart makes me feel like a cup of tea for some reason


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Lagging inflation:



That is definitely the least useful post I have seen this century.
Are you able to indicate how it helps us determine anything about the direction of the price of gold?


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> That is definitely the least useful post I have seen this century.
> Are you able to indicate how it helps us determine anything about the direction of the price of gold?





I would have thought it was rather obvious and supportive of your assertions re. gold.

Gold (as charted) lags inflation: therefore it should (according to your argument) rise to pari passu with inflation.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Gold (as charted) lags inflation: therefore it should (according to your argument) rise to pari passu with inflation.



The problem is that you need to know what the trend is going to be or is most likely to be and your chart is just "history."


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> The problem is that you need to know what the trend is going to be or is most likely to be and your chart is just "history."




Well, when you look at the 'trend' are you not (already) looking at historical prices? To decide what the trend is likely to be, is only an extrapolation of that history, projected forward. 

Whereas, the chart, provides the information that: gold has risen less than inflation. Your argument to me was that gold would trend higher because of increasing (monetary) inflation.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Whereas, the chart, provides the information that: gold has risen less than inflation. Your argument to me was that gold would trend higher because of increasing (monetary) inflation.



True - but that is a very long term trend.
What is probable in the next few weeks?
What is probable this year?
What makes movements less probable?
I guess if we are only writing about POG in 5 years time then we are all good.
I just do not find that helpful.


----------



## rederob

Above is the  hourly chart for POG and below is the daily chart:


Remembering that POG had been consolidating for many years before it broke  out last year, I would argue that gold will trade within the "green" band going forward, with continuing breakouts occurring in the upper "purple" band.


----------



## ducati916

Just referencing the Gold chart posted last week.

US companies have taken on (issued) a tremendous amount of debt. They have used that cash for share buybacks. If you back out that dilution, there is very little if any, earnings growth. Capital Expenditures are very low.

Additionally there has been tremendous growth in ETFs. ETFs hold common stocks on all manner of strategies. They invest in a very momentum based model.

We have already seen at the end of 2018, if rates rise, stocks fall. Stocks collapsed on the Fed hiking. So much so, the Fed had to backtrack quickly.

Can rates (sustained) go negative? No. That destroys the banking system. Look at a long term chart of Japanese banks and the state of European banks currently.

The US dollar has held up so well because foreign investors (pension funds) seeking yield, buy Treasuries (primarily 10 yr) but due to the rise in costs of hedging, cannot hedge out currency risk and are effectively long the US dollar. If currency fluctuations change that relationship so that it turns negative and they have to sell...rates will rise all along the curve.

The current situation (pricing of fixed income) is indicative of deflation, not inflation. Gold can also (and has done historically) rise in a deflation. It is my opinion that that is the current situation.

The turmoil in the Repo market, is largely due to over-regulation of banks and reserve requirements. They cannot fund the Repo market without breaching covenants on reserves. Hence, the Fed is back in with more QE. Just the moderate rise in yield in Oct/Nov last year was enough to break this market. This is probably the very definition of 'priced for perfection'.

If yield rises, it is my contention that POG, falls.

What could drive that outcome?

A consumer driven recession.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> If yield rises, it is my contention that POG, falls.
> What could drive that outcome?
> A consumer driven recession.



Your ideas might prove true, but based on what you say, that conclusion is not supported by the *90 year's of trend data* tabled in this link.
Year to year gold has both risen and declined during recessions, and similarly with expansionary policies.
Below is a 25-year chart with shaded "*recessions*" that compares the US Dollar with POG to see if it offers any clues:




While a weakening dollar from the early 2000s coincided with rising POG ( ie an inverse relationship) the massive spike higher of the USD between June 2015 and March 2017 was reflected only marginally.  Moreover, thereafter the relation became positively correlated.
I think divining chicken entrails or tossing darts when blindfolded offers equal insights when it comes to gold.
I do not however discounted that short term movements of the USD are not important considerations, just that other factors seem to drown it out over longer terms.


----------



## ducati916

The money multiplier is pretty much broken.

World GDP is +/- $27T
World Debt is +/- $128T

There are negative interest rates around the world.

If the US enters recession, then the Fed. will likely go negative. Certainly they will go to zero. This will be good for Gold.

However, as seen from the current impairment of the money multiplier, this won't work. The only way forward will be debt forgiveness (destruction). The Bible talks about the 'Debt Jubilee' (Leviticus) which I think has been incorrectly interpreted (today) to argue for debt forgiveness...anyway I digress.

Assuming something like this comes to pass (deflation or credit contraction) how goes Gold?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

Another week passes and gold remains firmly on track to reach sustainable plus-$1600s in months to come:


The above is from gold's hourly prices going back over 3 months and the incline is conservative as it was taken from a November peak rather than a midpoint.
It is interesting that during a week where the coronavirus was spreading fear, none of that infiltrated the gold market.
But more interesting was that as the week unfolded and we put both Brexit and Trump's impeachment "acquittal" behind us, gold then rallied for the remaining days.  I regard that sign as confirmation that POG's bull market is well founded.


----------



## Johny5

Its good/bad when you can still learn a lesson or two after trading for years. I usually only buy into Gold shares as a hedge or when equities look a little too risky to trade. So when the Coronavirus situation looked to be worsening (mid Jan) I thought I would buy Gold producers. I wrongly thought I would make a bundle, in times like this Gold should go through the roof or so I thought, but it just seems to be loping along. Why I asked myself, then I thought, China uses Gold in its production lines and Chinese buy Gold Jewellery and gifts (especially for New Year). Gold isn't just to hedge or hold wealth in a vault, its actually used for some real things. So with the production lines shutdown, both electronic and Jewellery, so did the consumption of Gold. No wonder the Gold price isn't in runaway territory. Or am I so naive about the Gold market that I am wrong about this too


----------



## rederob

Johny5 said:


> Gold isn't just to hedge or hold wealth in a vault, its actually used for some real things. So with the production lines shutdown, both electronic and Jewellery, so did the consumption of Gold. No wonder the Gold price isn't in runaway territory. Or am I so naive about the Gold market that I am wrong about this too



Yes, but gold "*consumption*" is more reactive to the price of gold, and this was most evident in the second half of 2019, when ETF inflows dried up and consumer demand slumped.



Despite the above, note that the net change in total gold flows was only *ONE *percent of total gold held.
Please read this for a better overview.
As to where we are today, I doubt that there are many *consumers *who think POG is going to decline meaningfully as it has stabilised above $1550 and after having briefly pushed through $1600.  In that event, demand reverts to "normal" until the next hefty price rise and, presently, the coronavirus will not cause it.
My take on why the coranavirus has not lifted POG is that lots of investors were instead parking money for bargains in the equity market.  Good luck with that.
For whatever reason commodity exposed equities have to date fared well, while travel/tourism exposed equities seem to have largely priced in possible downside.
On the technical side of gold, we were due for a period of consolidation in the $1550-$1600 range so time at the moment is our friend. 
Once any and all bargains from the coronavirus scare dry up, POG will gather strength and resume its uptrend.


----------



## Johny5

rederob said:


> As to where we are today, I doubt that there are many *consumers *who think POG is going to decline meaningfully as it has stabilised above $1550 and after having briefly pushed through $1600. In that event, demand reverts to "normal" until the next hefty price rise and, presently, the coronavirus will not cause it.
> My take on why the coranavirus has not lifted POG is that lots of investors were instead parking money for bargains in the equity market. Good luck with that.
> For whatever reason commodity exposed equities have to date fared well, while travel/tourism exposed equities seem to have largely priced in possible downside.
> On the technical side of gold, we were due for a period of consolidation in the $1550-$1600 range so time at the moment is our friend.
> Once any and all bargains from the coronavirus scare dry up, POG will gather strength and resume its uptrend.




Thanks rederob, good info. Looks like I have to be patient and allow the flows to play out in their own good time. Unfortunately patients is not one of my virtues, being mostly a day-trader. A little bit of Zen is needed, I will be the grasshopper for now ;-)


----------



## rederob

Johny5 said:


> Thanks rederob, good info. Looks like I have to be patient and allow the flows to play out in their own good time. Unfortunately patients is not one of my virtues, being mostly a day-trader. A little bit of Zen is needed, I will be the grasshopper for now ;-)



Oh well, keep your eyes peeled for the next installment from the ME or Asia where President Trump's interventions keep the pot well stirred.
Otherwise wait through this consolidation before some gung ho trader decides he wants to again massacre the short sellers.
For the more patient investors, the below hourly chart shows where gold has been travelling this year.
All gaps are filled, so while there might be the occasional downside surprise, the trajectory remains positive.  Running off patterns alone, the next movement above $1600 will be fast and the probable consolidation will occur around $1620.  I would be expecting that to be in place by May.


----------



## ducati916

_1.My take on why the coranavirus has not lifted POG is that lots of investors were instead parking money for bargains in the equity market.  Good luck with that.

2.On the technical side of gold, we were due for a period of consolidation in the $1550-$1600 range so time at the moment is our friend.

3.Once any and all bargains from the coronavirus scare dry up, POG will gather strength and resume its uptrend._

1. Not according to the charts. Equities declined (marginally) while Bonds rallied.

2. Why was gold 'due' for a consolidation?

3. Gold didn't correlate to the virus on the upside (expanding/unknown virus risk) why do you expect it to correlate on the downside (falling virus risk etc)?




But it correlates very closely to the 20yr Bond (as an example).

The question you should be asking (amongst actually many questions) is:

How low in yield can the highest quality Bond go, which is currently the US 30yr Treasury Bond.

It wouldn't surprise me that it goes to zero (0%).
Will the US go negative (like Europe/Japan)? Possibly.

While rates go lower, Gold will go higher. Rates (furthest out on the curve) have about 3% to zero. How much upside would you calculate for Gold?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. Not according to the charts. Equities declined (marginally) while Bonds rallied.
> 
> 2. Why was gold 'due' for a consolidation?
> 
> 3. Gold didn't correlate to the virus on the upside (expanding/unknown virus risk) why do you expect it to correlate on the downside (falling virus risk etc)?
> 
> View attachment 100280
> 
> 
> But it correlates very closely to the 20yr Bond (as an example).
> 
> The question you should be asking (amongst actually many questions) is:
> 
> How low in yield can the highest quality Bond go, which is currently the US 30yr Treasury Bond.
> 
> It wouldn't surprise me that it goes to zero (0%).
> Will the US go negative (like Europe/Japan)? Possibly.
> 
> While rates go lower, Gold will go higher. Rates (furthest out on the curve) have about 3% to zero. How much upside would you calculate for Gold?
> 
> jog on
> duc



*1. The coronavirus has been with us for many weeks now and equities are barely affected, overall. * As for bond rates, they came off a 2-month low point at beginning of February, and were actually continuing to decline for over a week *after* the first cases of coronavirus were reported.




*2. Gold pushes to new highs and then consolidates:*



*3. I do not expect gold to "correlate" with the coronavirus. * Instead, I see the virus as a portend of continuing market uncertainty.
As a result, I cannot see there being a meaningful dip in POG as this uncertainty is likely to prevail for weeks and possibly months to come.

While bonds and gold give some clues, the real clue is from accumulating debt.  That clue is with us for decades.  So gold consolidating above $2000 in a few years time should not be seen as a surprise.


----------



## rederob

Updating the weeks action:


----------



## rederob

Here's where we are heading with gold in the near term:


Consolidations run up to 2 months so I am reckoning on March holding  on to low $1600s.
In the Newcrest thread it was noted the share price has dipped a fair bit throughout this current period of consolidation, and as a gold equity, it's presently my favourite.  Sadly it's already 10% of my portfolio so I won't be adding.
And a quick aside:
If you read OZL's half yearly report today you would have noted they lost $24m on gold hedging.  So if you do dive into a goldie, check their hedging position first as presently Oz miners are losing hundreds of millions on poor hedges.


----------



## tinhat

rederob said:


> Here's where we are heading with gold in the near term:
> 
> 
> Consolidations run up to 2 months so I am reckoning on March holding  on to low $1600s.
> In the Newcrest thread it was noted the share price has dipped a fair bit throughout this current period of consolidation, and as a gold equity, it's presently my favourite.  Sadly it's already 10% of my portfolio so I won't be adding.
> And a quick aside:
> If you read OZL's half yearly report today you would have noted they lost $24m on gold hedging.  So if you do dive into a goldie, check their hedging position first as presently Oz miners are losing hundreds of millions on poor hedges.




As stated earlier in this thread I am very bullish gold in the medium term because block-chain distributed/shared ledger verification of ownership will allow trade to be transacted in physical gold by the masses. The USD will soon be worthless and it will start with the implosion of the paper gold market. The next great inflation is already here it just hasn't bitten yet.

NCM have certainly disappointed the market with underperformance at several of their operations. SAR is my personal favourite of the miners at the moment but I don't do a lot of research into the miners. It will be interesting to see if it makes a higher high (breaks over $4.65).


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Mullokintyre said, elsewhere







> Gold in USD at its highest since 2013.
> Given that AUD has fallen below 67 handle again, gold in AUD has set another all time record.
> Expecting gold stocks to rally tomorrow
> .
> Mick



..and I do believe it will


----------



## tinhat

Dona Ferentes said:


> Mullokintyre said, elsewhere
> ..and I do believe it will



What does that even mean? What are you saying exactly?

The USD will be toast eventually. Unfortunately, just as when the US were trying to prop up their dollar against oil, they will try and do so against gold. There will be blood spilt.


----------



## tinhat

Give me some horns.


----------



## rederob

tinhat said:


> Give me some horns.



You mean like gold... lol.
Overnight we saw the inevitable.


It's too early to say $1600 is behind us, but it's not too early to say $1650 is just ahead.
Yesterday's price band showed clear potential for +$1660 to be hit anytime soon.
In later weeks I will post charts showing that in 2020 a price target of $1750 is conservative based on trend.
Maybe I should reweight NCM.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

tinhat said:


> What does that even mean? What are you saying exactly?



it means, when the ASX opened this morning and buyers and sellers started trading, GDX is up 2.5% and PMGOLD is up 1.2%

(_Straight bat, dry pitch_ ; Googly that)


----------



## rederob

Nice to see gold add a few more dollars in a steady fashion overnight, with $1613 becoming the short term resistance point.
Below I have mapped gold's weekly action from its initial bull run in the 2000s.  Running off tops as indicators we can see that the current bull run is nowhere near as dramatic in pace.  I expect this to change at some point, but prefer the way we are going.


From an equities perspective, those who just jumped on board will be please that yesterday was not an aberration.  Providing there is no retrace of significance in weeks to come then I expect a shift from traders to investors this year as equities begin to offer decent dividend streams in addition to growth.


----------



## rederob

A quick recap on why we are here:


Upside to June 2020 is shown in the green band above, and downside risk while substantial, remains unlikely in the present environment.
Overnight action saw gold tack on a further $10 and the short term resistance point is 1623. 
Long-term resistance goes back to June 2012 and is $1640.  The next target from there is $1800 (variously hit between November 2011 and October 2012).
The next post charts the historical high for gold.


----------



## rederob

Back in January 2011 POG was at about the same price as in June 2019 (8 months ago).
However between January and August - in a space of 8 Months - it had closed at almost $1900.
The dotted line in the chart below shows POG's price at posting ($1619). It intersects *this chart* at August 2011.  In the next few weeks POG added another $300 to reach record highs.



We are not yet in a frenetic gold market and I can't see POG doing the same as back then.  The chart does, however, provide perspective on what is possible.


----------



## rederob

Below is the 5-minute chart for the part 24 hours.
Its an unusually steady increase of over 2%.
Usually these movements are heavily punctuated with spikes either way, but so far today it's been an uneventful climb.


Oddly today our gold producers did not move much in the markets, but if the present rise of POG sustains until close, I expect that will change.
Given long-term resistance of $1640 is just a whisker away now, it is going to get very interesting indeed once it is cleared.


----------



## rederob

Today's post goes under the heading "*The Rorschach test*".

With gold about to close for the week, it has seen a stellar run to peak at $1649 before dropping back a bit.
The chart below shows how the past 2 parabolic rises (from points "*D*" to "*A*") followed near identical paths.


The key difference is that the shorter period of consolidation in 2020 - shaded blue "sails"- has not so far led to the level of increase experience last December.  This might change next week if gold's path continues.
Those who trade the action will not care.
Those like me who try to find answers, will.
@ducati916 might be able to discover an indicator that was responsible, but for now I just put it down to what happens in bull markets, and how there is a tendency for patterns to repeat without there being a clear underlying cause.
Putting the week into perspective with respect to equities, POG is not yet $90/oz higher than last September's peak which carried gold producers to long term highs.  But that does translate to POG being 6% higher than when the equities peaked, yet all are now considerably lower.
If that is not a *buy signal *then I do not know what a better one would look like.

Back to the heading title: what did you see?


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Those who trade the action will not care.
> Those like me who try to find answers, will.
> @ducati916 might be able to discover an indicator that was responsible, but for now I just put it down to what happens in bull markets, and how there is a tendency for patterns to repeat without there being a clear underlying cause.




Every maturity of Treasury debt (10yrs or lower) is now trading (in yield) below the overnight (Repo) rate. This is pricing in (the bond market's belief) that aggregate demand will fall below aggregate supply (even taking into account the Coronavirus), which will create disinflationary pressures (at least the prices that interest the Fed). Gold is correlated Treasury yield (both positively and negatively).

The issue for yields (and therefore gold) going forward is what if that output gap doesn't eventuate? What if aggregate supply falls (far) below aggregate demand? We then have an inflationary environment where yields will rise and gold could fall (as it did from the 1980's through 2000).

Well those conditions are present: this has been the weakest capital investment since the 1970's. Oil which I keep track of has had incredibly weak CapEx and supply will fall, although it could take until next year to really make itself fall. Rising energy prices are (highly) inflationary. The Fed excludes energy prices, but nonetheless, energy and yield correlate as does gold.

With energy (oil) hanging in around the $40/$50 range with current oversupply, if an output gap develops, prices could move back towards the $100 mark quite quickly and yields could double. Get a new President who appoints a hawkish Fed Chair and a run up in yields...

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Every maturity of Treasury debt (10yrs or lower) is now trading (in yield) below the overnight (Repo) rate. This is pricing in (the bond market's belief) that aggregate demand will fall below aggregate supply (even taking into account the Coronavirus), which will create disinflationary pressures (at least the prices that interest the Fed). Gold is correlated Treasury yield (both positively and negatively).
> 
> The issue for yields (and therefore gold) going forward is what if that output gap doesn't eventuate? What if aggregate supply falls (far) below aggregate demand? We then have an inflationary environment where yields will rise and gold could fall (as it did from the 1980's through 2000).
> 
> Well those conditions are present: this has been the weakest capital investment since the 1970's. Oil which I keep track of has had incredibly weak CapEx and supply will fall, although it could take until next year to really make itself fall. Rising energy prices are (highly) inflationary. The Fed excludes energy prices, but nonetheless, energy and yield correlate as does gold.
> 
> With energy (oil) hanging in around the $40/$50 range with current oversupply, if an output gap develops, prices could move back towards the $100 mark quite quickly and yields could double. Get a new President who appoints a hawkish Fed Chair and a run up in yields...
> 
> jog on
> duc



Thanks, but what did you notice, if anything, that caused POG's rise over the week?

On oil, the pricing structure is around LTO which overall is barely profitable below $50.  Moreover, while OPEC was once the "swing" producer, it's now the USA.  The idea that POO can move close to $100 within the next few years requires a Middle East calamity.  Until then the more probable trading range is $45-$65 with possible spikes to around $70.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Thanks, but what did you notice, if anything, that caused POG's rise over the week?
> 
> 2. On oil, the pricing structure is around LTO which overall is barely profitable below $50.  Moreover, while OPEC was once the "swing" producer, it's now the USA.  The idea that POO can move close to $100 within the next few years requires a Middle East calamity.  Until then the more probable trading range is $45-$65 with possible spikes to around $70.




1. The fall in yield across all maturities of Treasury.

2. With the massive underinvestment from the majors combined with the losses incurred in shale, there could very easily be supply issues going forward. Demand is still growing significantly. We have that range currently with oil and the (current) glut.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. The fall in yield across all maturities of Treasury.



Although there is a semblance of usefulness in that idea for this week, the below chart of POG covers the period 3 February to 19 February where almost every term of Treasuries *increased*.




So if Treasuries are increasing and gold is rising, and Treasuries are decreasing and gold is rising, I think we need to be careful.


----------



## ducati916

They are both considered 'safe havens'. When the yield on Treasury drops to zero, which it probably will at some point, it will be interesting to see what happens, as there will be no advantage at all over gold.

My question is: what happens to gold (if) Treasuries fall and yield rises? Historically, gold has collapsed. Today, that still seems to be the case as gold correlates to Treasuries.

Debt is higher today than it was in 2008. Low quality debt is again securitised. There is no obvious trigger this time (last time it was interest (teaser) rates reset higher) but there is this output gap, which, will in time, create defaults. True, this is not the Treasury market. True Banks are not directly in the firing line, this time it is Pension Funds and Insurance companies holding, but it is worldwide (again).

So we are sitting at zero (some time in the near future) and a crisis erupts. Negative rates kill the banking system, so negative (should) be out. What to do?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> View attachment 100675
> 
> 
> They are both considered 'safe havens'. When the yield on Treasury drops to zero, which it probably will at some point, it will be interesting to see what happens, as there will be no advantage at all over gold.
> 
> My question is: what happens to gold (if) Treasuries fall and yield rises? Historically, gold has collapsed. Today, that still seems to be the case as gold correlates to Treasuries.
> 
> Debt is higher today than it was in 2008. Low quality debt is again securitised. There is no obvious trigger this time (last time it was interest (teaser) rates reset higher) but there is this output gap, which, will in time, create defaults. True, this is not the Treasury market. True Banks are not directly in the firing line, this time it is Pension Funds and Insurance companies holding, but it is worldwide (again).
> 
> So we are sitting at zero (some time in the near future) and a crisis erupts. Negative rates kill the banking system, so negative (should) be out. What to do?
> 
> jog on
> duc



I do not find the correlations of gold and treasuries to be especially meaningful for short term movements, and for the longer term regard *debt *to be gold's principal driver.  Beyond that I will rely on charts and market sentiment for direction.
Gold will always be a fungible store of value so I am not concerned about what "paper" says should or could be more valuable.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. I do not find the correlations of gold and treasuries to be especially meaningful for short term movements,
> 
> 2. and for the longer term regard *debt *to be gold's principal driver.
> 
> 3. Beyond that I will rely on charts and market sentiment for direction.
> 
> 4. Gold will always be a fungible store of value so I am not concerned about what "paper" says should or could be more valuable.




1. So here is an 18yr chart:




2. Debt does not correlate well. 1981 - 2002 gold goes down. Same time period debt goes higher. We have already covered this point earlier in the thread.

3. Fine.

4. Yes it is. That doesn't mean you can't show a loss on it.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Debt does not correlate well. 1981 - 2002 gold goes down. Same time period debt goes higher. We have already covered this point earlier in the thread.



I am looking at what will continue to *drive *gold increasingly higher, and that will be debt.
The difference in our words relate to correlations being post fact while *drivers are forward looking*.
As I have said before, unless you know which metric leads the other, and that the relationship is consistent, I don't worry too much about correlations.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> Given long-term resistance of $1640 is just a whisker away now, it is going to get very interesting indeed once it is cleared.



That was Friday.
Here's what happened:


So resistance has been reset at $*1680 *which is about $100 higher than a week ago.
This is not a sustainable rise imho, so look to the above gap being filled.


----------



## rederob

Monday's POG peaked at $1689.30 and we have seen a firm retracement in price since then.
I hope that continues for weeks to come.



Although gold equities were heavily bought Monday, their prices have since returned to previous week levels in the main.
I was checking out a number of various company announcements and found some institutional stock holders have added to their positions.
In the case of Van Eck (one of the the biggest players in world gold markets), they went from zero to a +5% holding in AMI in the last month.
I believe there is a steady change from trading to investing in gold equities, as this bull market has a lot left in it and most producers were already turning a useful profit when POG was US$300/oz less than today.


----------



## ducati916

Just hope there is no rise in yield.

In the short term, I would not expect any rise, rather, a fall, which for gold would be very positive. Longer term however, as the lowest CapEx since the 1950's takes root in oil producers and production levels fall, the imbalance in supply/demand will see the oil/gold ration move against gold.

That will be seen as inflationary, which could, drive yield higher.

jog on
duc


----------



## gartley

rederob said:


> Monday's POG peaked at $1689.30 and we have seen a firm retracement in price since then.
> I hope that continues for weeks to come.
> 
> 
> 
> Although gold equities were heavily bought Monday, their prices have since returned to previous week levels in the main.
> I was checking out a number of various company announcements and found some institutional stock holders have added to their positions.
> In the case of Van Eck (one of the the biggest players in world gold markets), they went from zero to a +5% holding in AMI in the last month.
> I believe there is a steady change from trading to investing in gold equities, as this bull market has a lot left in it and most producers were already turning a useful profit when POG was US$300/oz less than today.




I think we neen to be really careful here. Gold stocks got hammered in 2008. Personally I prefer the physical stuff at this point in time.


----------



## barney

gartley said:


> I think we neen to be really careful here. Gold stocks got hammered in 2008.




Gold Stocks also got hammered today on our market in a high 'gold price' arena …….. 

Punters are obviously nervous, and when punters are nervous … fundamentals go out the window in the short term.

Personally, I am in pain financially in this current smash up … but hopefully I will be smarter coming out the other side than in the past ...


----------



## fergee

barney said:


> Gold Stocks also got hammered today on our market in a high 'gold price' arena ……..
> 
> Punters are obviously nervous, and when punters are nervous … fundamentals go out the window in the short term.
> 
> Personally, I am in pain financially in this current smash up … but hopefully I will be smarter coming out the other side than in the past ...




Weak hands getting shaken out, its not all bad they are getting margin calls or just chicken, good to see. I don't want to see a vertical rise in gold it creates a weak price structure over the longer term. Climb those stairs then jump a few back every now and again is healthy imo 

I think a lot of people are in pain you can ride it out or rip the band aid off. 

Im looking forward to those bargains baby


----------



## ducati916

Silver lagging. Has the same 'money' reality as gold, yet, little to no movement. By far the better value if one is looking to insure that one has money and not credit.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

I posted this a week ago:





Gold took the elevator down overnight.


Overnight POG dipped to as low as $1562.74 (4 hours ago) and has been recovering since.
It's clear that this past week has been ruled by fear.
In that environment, even gold has been dumped - at least for now.
My view is that so far $1550 has not been breached, and this apparent calamity is well within the consolidation bands I posted last week.  When or if $1550 is breached, then we have a new ball game.
COVID-19 was overnight  elevated to a high level global threat.
So I have parked some money until the threat level has reduced and will stay out of the markets until then.


----------



## finicky

From this angle, on a monthly chart, Gold could be starting to outperform the Dow again - second positive signal of this type since 2002.

Interesting twitter remarks by this guy:

Benjamin Deutsch
@TradingForPro

1/ I know... #GOLD Investors are again depressed. We get the deep cleansing now. Weak hands have to sell, strong hands have to buy again. Comment to the chart below: We got only 3 signals in 20 years. The third one came yesterday. Never forget the big picture! We are...

2/ clearly in a new #GOLD bullmarket. Many fearing the sell off and a big catastrophy like 2008. Don't fear it, see the opportunity what is ahead of us. Very soon we'll get the biggest stimulus we have EVER seen in our lifetimes, it's time for hard assets.


----------



## rederob

For the best analysis I have ever seen on POG's probable future, please visit this site, which includes the below plus many other excellent charts:



Note that the "blue" line above confirms the point made by @finicky in his previous post.


----------



## rederob

Absolutely crazy opening on gold this morning.
Immediately jumped to $1593 - some $7 higher than Friday's close.
Then spent the next +20 minutes tracking lower before rebounding.
As you can see from the below chart, minute by minute swings were wild early on, and of large magnitude.


I know it's still early in the proceedings, but wondered if there was going to be something decisive to shape the week ahead.
Had he brief downtrend continued, then I would have been pessimistic.
However, so far it appears that last Friday's selloff was overdone.


----------



## ducati916

The big selloff in Gold was Russia selling gold to balance its losses in oil revenues and meet payments on debt obligations.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> The big selloff in Gold was Russia selling gold to balance its losses in oil revenues and meet payments on debt obligations.



Do you have a reference?
I read and heard analysts over the weekend saying it was general short covering, but nothing about Russian oil.
Anyway, the past 20 hours saw POG range-bound between $1590 and $1610 ($1593 as I posted but rapidly dipping to $1585 as I did this edit 10 minutes later).
If COVID-19 runs as previous pandemics did, then the general equities markets have a lot more pain ahead.
As @peter2 notes, if you are looking for something to survive the rout, then good gold equities are likely to offer hope.
Reasons:

As gold is a safe haven in tough times, POG is unlikely to weaken, and certainly not at the same rate as other market sectors
Hedged producers are not going to be significantly affected, while those largely unhedged will be delivering into a market already several hundred USD higher than last year
  Those buying into gold will be looking more to park their money safely for a while than think they can trade their way to profits, so a semblance of progressively higher prices seems likely to prevail as more buyers enter the fray.
Unlike other metals, gold's market is not affected by industrial production, so its price will move almost entirely on sentiment rather than economic demand.


----------



## ducati916

https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/weekly/2020/vw202003_4/

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/external-debt

So putting it altogether from when the plunge in oil revenues occurred:




Putin (is apparently paranoid about a Russian default a la 1998) will not allow any hint of Russia not being able to service its debt, hence, the word is, Russia dumped a portion of its reserves to pay.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

@ducati916  - I don't doubt that Russia places great importance on their oil and gold assets, but there is no evidence so far that Russia triggered last Friday's gold selldown.
I have below charted *OIL *prices against *GOLD *price changes in AUD and USD (over the past 4 months) to reiterate my view that trying to use an *OIL:GOLD* ratio is meaningless without a positive correlation between them.


My reading of gold's near term direction is a move into the $1620-$1660 band where it will consolidate for a month or so on what I call a "_*business as usual*_" scenario.  That is, based on the present state of global affairs I see a rational move into gold holdings that will be sustaining for as long as COVID-19 remains a menace.


----------



## rederob

Another incredible night for gold, this time bouncing northwards.
It's instructive to note that although POG is considerably higher today than at its January peak, most gold producers are currently trading around 10% lower in price than back then.
So it's certainly not too late to ride gold producers if you have some spare cash.



At time of posting POG ($1640.50) was at the lower boundary of the green trend channel.  I expect the median (red line just below $1660) to be gathered in over the next week or so.
As noted in the chart by @finicky, POG is now outperforming the DOW.  As the effects of COVID-19 are still relatively mild from a global perspective, there seem little prospect that this trend will be broken in the months ahead.  Indeed, the previous outperformance carried through for 10 years.


----------



## rederob

At last, an overnight breather to POG.


Trying to guess what will happen day to day is a fools errand, as movements of $60 can occur in a matter of hours.
All we can be reasonably sure of is that this has all the hallmarks of a long-term bull market.
And while COVID-19 has caused some dramatic day-to-day price fluctuations, its overall impact will be to drive a lot of money into the safer haven of gold in its many forms.


----------



## ducati916

The Commercials are simply sellers.




It is a week out of date, so it could of course change.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> The Commercials are simply sellers.



And that means *what *for the price of gold?
For those who want to understand a bit more about COT reports this is handy.
Changes to aggregate numbers of positions does not tell you what prices were traded, just who traded them.
Nor do the changes reflect the magnitude of price movements.
Nor does it tell you a massive selloff is imminent, as occurred last week, or when it will spike higher, as in today.
As an example, between June last year and now @ducati916's COT report is largely unchanged, yet POG is up almost $400.
I personally do not find that useful, but I don't "trade" so maybe there is something else to it?
Now back to this week's action, as shown below.


My suspicion is that over the weekend the international spread of COVID-19 will have increased markedly and this "fear" will push POG decisively into the $1700 band next week. 
At $1700 POG will be overextended by a long margin, so unless you can pick up gold producers next week at their 2019 levels then it might be an idea to let this market return to rationality.


----------



## qldfrog

rederob said:


> And that means *what *for the price of gold?
> For those who want to understand a bit more about COT reports this is handy.
> Changes to aggregate numbers of positions does not tell you what prices were traded, just who traded them.
> Nor do the changes reflect the magnitude of price movements.
> Nor does it tell you a massive selloff is imminent, as occurred last week, or when it will spike higher, as in today.
> As an example, between June last year and now @ducati916's COT report is largely unchanged, yet POG is up almost $400.
> I personally do not find that useful, but I don't "trade" so maybe there is something else to it?
> Now back to this week's action, as shown below.
> 
> 
> My suspicion is that over the weekend the international spread of COVID-19 will have increased markedly and this "fear" will push POG decisively into the $1700 band next week.
> At $1700 POG will be overextended by a long margin, so unless you can pick up gold producers next week at their 2019 levels then it might be an idea to let this market return to rationality.



Can I add that there was a marked fall in the USD last few days, whichcould explain part of this week behaviour.
Are you aware of a GOLD vs currency basket?
I wonder if the peak is not past with a peak around the 4th in such a context? You are the expert Gold wise


----------



## rederob

qldfrog said:


> Can I add that there was a marked fall in the USD last few days, whichcould explain part of this week behaviour.
> Are you aware of a GOLD vs currency basket?
> I wonder if the peak is not past with a peak around the 4th in such a context? You are the expert Gold wise



I'm just a bit more observant that many @qldfrog and I know the markets do not care for a single word I post here.
Anyhow, this chart compares 3 currencies from the time gold began its present ascent:


The highlighted channel encompasses the entirety of POG in USD$ terms (*Gold*-coloured line).  But you will note that in AUD terms (*red*/*green *bars) we are looking good!
(*Blue* line is POG in Euro terms.)
In my previous post I commented that POG at $1700 would be overextended, yet in the context of movements against other currencies it's got a lot more potential upside without attracting a surge of short sellers.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> And that means *what *for the price of gold?
> For those who want to understand a bit more about COT reports this is handy.




This link to the 'Analytical Trader' is filled with factual errors. Some of the more obvious: Open Interest is actually the 'total number of longs or shorts'. It is not 'unexecuted orders'.

The most important error however is in his assessment of 'Commercials'.

Commercials are the chaps with the information flow, the middlemen between the producers and the market. They will scale up and down. They are negative-feedback loop traders.

The 'Analytical Trader' cites them as:

"_Commercial players or hedgers are therefore bullish at market tops and bearish at market bottoms."
_
Incorrect. The exact opposite.

Their importance is in their information flow. They proxy well for the producers. There is an economic axiom that higher prices increase supply. As the price of gold rises, producers will increase supply to increase profits. It is the Commercials that see this increased supply, which is why they are net sellers currently.

Is it possible that 'supply' runs down/out or is held back in the belief of ever higher prices?
Yes, of course.

In that situation you would see a Commercial capitulation. This happens once every blue moon. That is a buy signal.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Here is the issue with only following a 'chart' on an investment basis. (This does not really apply to pure trading as the pure price is the signal for enter/exit/hold)

This applies more to this thread which addresses POG as an investment and which therefore considers extrinsic factors (or should) that could effect changes in the price (up or down) rather than simply to the 'Chart'.

A chart (any chart) is simply a circular argument.

Why is the POG moving higher? Because the chart says it will/is/etc. That tells you nothing other than the price is currently higher.

There will be causes.
(i) Do we know, or can we know why?
(ii) Is it even important?

(i) In real time, we can infer, based on evidence. Often, the true 'cause' may only be apparent in hindsight.

(ii) For pure 'traders' no, probably not. The chart is sufficient. For understanding the wider economic implications...absolutely is it important. That information is transferrable (confirms/denies) to many other price series.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Here is the latest COT




Commercials are still big sellers. Their 'timing' is dependent upon the 'big picture'. Currently we have COVID-19 impacting on the macro picture. That (likely) distorts the macro picture and will have an effect on the 'timing'.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

What is the 'macro' situation currently?

With the advent of COVID-19, the recessionary pressures are higher. A recession at this point will create a lot of pressure in the BBB (junk bond) market, now at an enormous $15T. Bankruptcies will therefore create debt destruction and a contraction in supply as these firms go under. That is deflationary.

Assuming Central Banks want to intervene (of course they will) what can they do?

(i) Expand Balance sheets (QE); or
(ii) Helicopter drop money; or
(iii) A bit of both; or
(iv) Something completely new.

What they cannot do is go negative or more deeply negative on interest rates. Simply because negative rates destroy the banking system.

(i) Is inflationary for financial assets.
(ii) If in sufficient size, is consumer inflationary; or
(iv) Unknown.


If (i) as money flows back into stocks, what happens to gold?
If (ii) what happens to gold in a consumer inflation?
If (iv) what happens?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> The most important error however is in his assessment of 'Commercials'.
> Commercials are the chaps with the information flow, the middlemen between the producers and the market. They will scale up and down. They are negative-feedback loop traders.



To much of your analysis I say "*so what*"?
For example,* hedges or commercials* will be most active at market tops as they will lock in high prices to protect their interests.  Gold producers will therefore hedge future delivery into the best available price, and that is at market tops.
Next, the axiom you quoted about higher prices increasing supply is true mostly in that marginal producers can process ore that was formerly unprofitable: old mines will re-open.   Profitable producers will revisit their data and look to *extend mine life* while they also tap into defined reserves that were set aside as higher grades were being mined.  It makes little sense for gold miners to process their highest grades first in a rising gold market. 
With regard to your scenarios above, they overlook the essence of gold as a store of wealth in uncertain times.  Until that uncertainty is erased, gold prices will continue to rise at a rate ahead of most market sectors.
The GFC, for example, took hold in 2008.  POG averaged roughly $870/oz in 2008.  Four years later - 2012 - POG averaged roughly $1670.  Apart from the issue of inflation, which has been historically low since the early 1980s, most of your scenarios suggest that POG's rise will continue largely unabated.
Finally: 







ducati916 said:


> A chart (any chart) is simply a circular argument.



This is *not* so for a many reasons.
Charts allow us to identify patterns and trends.
Astute investors can work out the likelihood of patterns repeating and trends continuing by looking in detail at the principal factors *driving *prices. However, this is about probability and not certainty, so we can never be sure. (Markets are inherently irrational when panic sets in, as has occurred with COVID-19's influences.)
At the macro level COVID-19 is merely a short-term driver of POG, but with medium term implications due to its broader economic effects.  It had nothing to do with the creation of POG's apparent bull market, but will reinforce it over coming months. I see it as setting a higher POG quicker than would be expected in run of the mill bull market scenarios (if there is such a thing).  Which also means that when COVID-19 is no longer an economic impediment, profit taking will rule for a while and gold will need to reconsolidate.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> To much of your analysis I say "*so what*"?
> 
> 1. For example,* hedges or commercials* will be most active at market tops as they will lock in high prices to protect their interests.  Gold producers will therefore hedge future delivery into the best available price, and that is at market tops.
> 
> 2. With regard to your scenarios above, they overlook the essence of gold as a store of wealth in uncertain times.  Until that uncertainty is erased, gold prices will continue to rise at a rate ahead of most market sectors.
> 
> 3. The GFC, for example, took hold in 2008.  POG averaged roughly $870/oz in 2008.  Four years later - 2012 - POG averaged roughly $1670.  Apart from the issue of inflation, which has been historically low since the early 1980s, most of your scenarios suggest that POG's rise will continue largely unabated.
> 
> 4(a). Finally: This is *not* so for a many reasons.
> 4(b). Charts allow us to identify patterns and trends.
> 
> 5.
> *A *[Astute investors can work out the likelihood of patterns repeating and trends continuing]
> *B* [by looking in detail at the principal factors *driving *prices.]
> 
> 
> 
> 6. At the macro level COVID-19 is merely a short-term driver of POG, but with medium term implications due to its broader economic effects.  It had nothing to do with the creation of POG's apparent bull market, but will reinforce it over coming months.
> 
> 7. I see it as setting a higher POG quicker than would be expected in run of the mill bull market scenarios (if there is such a thing).  Which also means that when COVID-19 is no longer an economic impediment, profit taking will rule for a while and gold will need to reconsolidate.





1. Why will they be most active at market tops? How will they know its a top? You would seem to be referring to the actual producers. By the same reasoning, they would also be most active at market bottoms (fearing further falls). Producers are price takers (not makers) and 'need' to sell product. You would hope that they understand their industry, but, many seem not to, or they are driven by operational necessity.

2. If gold is a store of wealth does that mean its value cannot fall? Of course not. So why could gold not fall even in times of uncertainty? Surely the future is always uncertain, yet, gold fluctuates.

3. I take it that is your answer: in all scenarios gold appreciates. My take is that two of those scenarios (depending on Bond yields) gold falls.

6. That is probably true.

7. Possibly.

4(a). Circular reasoning takes the form:

A is true because B is true.
B is true because A is true.

Which is exactly the form a chart takes.

4(b). Which is exactly:

A is true because B is true.
B is true because A is true.

5. Then you are not using the chart as a direct tool of analysis. You are engaging in either micro (bottom up) or macro (top down) analysis, which is nothing to do with reading a chart, which gives you a price series.

Your argument falls into:

If *B *then,
*A
*
As a probability, rather than a certainty. Your two variables are separate and therefore not circular.

However you have largely not engaged in this form of argument. Many of your arguments a purely circular in that they consist solely of a chart based analysis.


As examples of non-circular (but a non-exhaustive list):

Some of the non-circular arguments (gold correlating to debt) have simply been incorrect.
Your COVID-19 (non-circular) argument is largely (I suspect) correct.

jog on
duc
*
*


----------



## explod

In 1970 an ounce of gold was about equal to a $20 note. 

A $20 note stored under the bed is still $20 and ounce of gold is now $2500, I know which I prefer as my store of wealth.

There are many from old school who know this and in the approaching uncertainties of what is holding paper money up, there will be a growing rush to gold.

However we'll see. DYOR


----------



## qldfrog

explod said:


> In 1970 an ounce of gold was about equal to a $20 note.
> 
> A $20 note stored under the bed is still $20 and ounce of gold is now $2500, I know which I prefer as my store of wealth.
> 
> There are many from old school who know this and in the approaching uncertainties of what is holding paper money up, there will be a growing rush to gold.
> 
> However we'll see. DYOR



But the question  today in Australia is:
You can wipe your ass with the 20$ bill, your bullion will not help, will it?


----------



## rederob

qldfrog said:


> But the question  today in Australia is:
> You can wipe your ass with the 20$ bill, your bullion will not help, will it?



We need @explod's real paper stash from under his bed as our new polymer notes are inclined to spread the love.
But we should not be talking about  "dirty money" here, should we?


----------



## explod

qldfrog said:


> But the question  today in Australia is:
> You can wipe your ass with the 20$ bill, your bullion will not help, will it?



Sorry Ole Pal, but your statement just does not make tangible sense.


----------



## explod

Anyhow the Aussie gold price has just gone up $60 on the open.

Sooner have a dirty ass.


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. Why will they be most active at market tops? How will they know its a top? You would seem to be referring to the actual producers. By the same reasoning, they would also be most active at market bottoms (fearing further falls). Producers are price takers (not makers) and 'need' to sell product. You would hope that they understand their industry, but, many seem not to, or they are driven by operational necessity.
> 
> 2. If gold is a store of wealth does that mean its value cannot fall? Of course not. So why could gold not fall even in times of uncertainty? Surely the future is always uncertain, yet, gold fluctuates.
> 
> 3. I take it that is your answer: in all scenarios gold appreciates. My take is that two of those scenarios (depending on Bond yields) gold falls.
> 
> 6. That is probably true.
> 
> 7. Possibly.
> 
> 4(a). Circular reasoning takes the form:
> 
> A is true because B is true.
> B is true because A is true.
> 
> Which is exactly the form a chart takes.
> 
> 4(b). Which is exactly:
> 
> A is true because B is true.
> B is true because A is true.
> 
> 5. Then you are not using the chart as a direct tool of analysis. You are engaging in either micro (bottom up) or macro (top down) analysis, which is nothing to do with reading a chart, which gives you a price series.
> 
> Your argument falls into:
> 
> If *B *then,
> *A
> *
> As a probability, rather than a certainty. Your two variables are separate and therefore not circular.
> 
> However you have largely not engaged in this form of argument. Many of your arguments a purely circular in that they consist solely of a chart based analysis.
> 
> 
> As examples of non-circular (but a non-exhaustive list):
> 
> Some of the non-circular arguments (gold correlating to debt) have simply been incorrect.
> Your COVID-19 (non-circular) argument is largely (I suspect) correct.
> 
> jog on
> duc



If you need to hedge your gold production and cannot tell a good price from a poor price, you should not be in business!  That said, I think you would agree there are many technical indicators that  point to when prices are peaking and it becomes more opportune to lock in a forward sale.  It is not necessary to "time" the peak in order to hedge advantageously.
Your idea that hedges "*would also be most active at market bottoms (fearing further falls)*" is nonsensical given the technical indicators available to assist make trading profitable.

An issue relating to investing in gold producers as distinct from other market sectors worth noting is that whenever possible they try to be debt free so that they do not have to hedge.  That's one reason I look closely at the hedge books of companies before investing.

Nobody is suggesting that gold's price cannot fluctuate.  In trading or investing it's about being on the right side of those fluctuations.  If, as it appears, gold is in a bull market then it will cycle through higher tops and bottoms. I have used charts extensively in my posts in this thread over the past year to show these cycles and trends, and point out where gold appears overextended or otherwise.  It's not hard!

Your points on charts are absolute rubbish!  A chart is first and foremost an objective historical document.  *It is necessarily "true"* thereby defeating your idea that is is "circular reasoning."  Analysis of the factors affecting the points on the chart allows us to determine what drives the price in any direction.  You seem to be suggesting that we cannot *know *these things and, without the need to get into epistemology, I suspect you would not this week be buying any investment shares in Flight Centre or Qantas.

In relation to your claim that gold does not correlate with debt I have previously charted how that idea sits.  In logical terms if gold is a store of wealth then its value will increase over time as debt levels increase.  Part of this fundamental position is based on the weakness of fiat currencies.  An ounce of gold here is equal to an ounce of gold everywhere else, however that is not the case with paper money.

At a very practical level I have been reading what you write here to see how it would translate to assisting people invest in gold or gold-related equities.  Apart from us agreeing that gold has a good future, I don't find that you have offered many clues.  But that door is not closed.


----------



## qldfrog

explod said:


> Sorry Ole Pal, but your statement just does not make tangible sense.



Reference to the 10,000 toilet paper roll..your 20$ billlcan be used for that, not a bullion...
My usual bad humour, blame it on cultural differences


----------



## finicky

A few of the gold producers are up or steady on this AU gold record + asx crash day but all my gold speccies are down 6-12%.


----------



## explod

finicky said:


> A few of the gold producers are up or steady on this AU gold record + asx crash day but all my gold speccies are down 6-12%.



Agree, half my goldies down also. I think a run to meet margins on other general stocks purchased on credit is a big factor. 

Note Salvini in Italy is calling for a stop on short selling, now that would be very interesting if it were to take hold.

Have always felt short selling wrong.


----------



## finicky

Yes, could be margin related and it only just occurred to me that Australian Gold explorers/developers are not 'risk off' assets to use the term, even in a record gold price environment, far from it, and well down the ladder from proven profitable gold miners.

Don't know about short selling, my antagonism has softened with time but haven't tried it myself - a call to Commsec on the process years ago left me unenlightened. Not to take the gold thread too far off track but a guy over on twitter was telling everyone to short transports and major miners weeks ago - 24 Feb - sounds like's he's in clover. Stocks he mentioned were QAN, FLT, SYD, MIN - TwinTurboCelica @TwinTurboCe1ica

Done nothing today but add to a holding that is prbly now too much for a speccie gold - ARS - all depends on ARS's non-binding agreement of terms holding up with their contract miner, Blue Cap Mining I guess.


----------



## qldfrog

about shorting :
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/what-are-we-buying-on-monday.35247/page-3#post-1060211
as a note between3/02 and today 3 shorts on FMG alone let me cash 83% profit average with around aweek holding each, even playing small an easy $4k to balance some of the losses of my systems
as for Qantas. Were people blind?But thank you
Hopefully my PMGOLD will play well but as you, today I  experience heavy fall on the miners GOR and SLR lost respectively 7.3% and 10.2% while NCM went up 2% and RRL  a smaller 4.8% fall...
not playing as expected
PMGOLD up 0.2%


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. If you need to hedge your gold production and cannot tell a good price from a poor price, you should not be in business!  That said, I think you would agree there are many technical indicators that  point to when prices are peaking and it becomes more opportune to lock in a forward sale.  It is not necessary to "time" the peak in order to hedge advantageously.
> 
> 2. Your idea that hedges "*would also be most active at market bottoms (fearing further falls)*" is nonsensical given the technical indicators available to assist make trading profitable.
> 
> 3. An issue relating to investing in gold producers as distinct from other market sectors worth noting is that whenever possible they try to be debt free so that they do not have to hedge.  That's one reason I look closely at the hedge books of companies before investing.
> 
> 4. Nobody is suggesting that gold's price cannot fluctuate.  In trading or investing it's about being on the right side of those fluctuations.  If, as it appears, gold is in a bull market then it will cycle through higher tops and bottoms. I have used charts extensively in my posts in this thread over the past year to show these cycles and trends, and point out where gold appears overextended or otherwise.  It's not hard!
> 
> 5. Your points on charts are absolute rubbish!  A chart is first and foremost an objective historical document.  *It is necessarily "true"* thereby defeating your idea that is is "circular reasoning."  Analysis of the factors affecting the points on the chart allows us to determine what drives the price in any direction.  You seem to be suggesting that we cannot *know *these things and, without the need to get into epistemology, I suspect you would not this week be buying any investment shares in Flight Centre or Qantas.
> 
> 6. In relation to your claim that gold does not correlate with debt I have previously charted how that idea sits.  In logical terms if gold is a store of wealth then its value will increase over time as debt levels increase.  Part of this fundamental position is based on the weakness of fiat currencies.  An ounce of gold here is equal to an ounce of gold everywhere else, however that is not the case with paper money.
> 
> 7. At a very practical level I have been reading what you write here to see how it would translate to assisting people invest in gold or gold-related equities.  Apart from us agreeing that gold has a good future, I don't find that you have offered many clues.  But that door is not closed.





1. Are you seriously advocating that 'technical indicators' have anything much more than a 50% probability?

2. See above.

3. I thought you just claimed that 'technical indicators' would in combination with their informational expertise, would provide them with exact tops and bottoms, making hedging a very profitable undertaking.

4. Lots of ways to trade and make money irrespective of being on the 'right' side. As a longer term hold or investment, then essentially I agree.

5. A chart is a price series, agreed. A chart is often used (technical traders) as a circular argument. You have used your chart analysis as a circular argument numerous times. A chart only becomes non-circular if an extrinsic analysis is added to the price series. This may be micro or macro or a combination.

6. Yes you have. You were incorrect. Nominal levels of debt are not strongly correlated with the POG.

7. That is simply because your mind is closed.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. Are you seriously advocating that 'technical indicators' have anything much more than a 50% probability?
> 
> 2. See above.
> 
> 3. I thought you just claimed that 'technical indicators' would in combination with their informational expertise, would provide them with exact tops and bottoms, making hedging a very profitable undertaking.
> 
> 4. Lots of ways to trade and make money irrespective of being on the 'right' side. As a longer term hold or investment, then essentially I agree.
> 
> 5. A chart is a price series, agreed. A chart is often used (technical traders) as a circular argument. You have used your chart analysis as a circular argument numerous times. A chart only becomes non-circular if an extrinsic analysis is added to the price series. This may be micro or macro or a combination.
> 
> 6. Yes you have. You were incorrect. Nominal levels of debt are not strongly correlated with the POG.
> 
> 7. That is simply because your mind is closed.
> 
> jog on
> duc



The best thing about your posts is their consistency = unhelpful here.
Your points on technical analysis and charting are puerile.
In relation to correlations, I have regularly shown that what you have used is not useful.
Going back well over 10 years I recall how I used your analysis as a sound contra-indication of what was more likely.  Not much has changed.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. The best thing about your posts is their consistency = unhelpful here.
> 
> 2. Your points on technical analysis and charting are puerile.
> 
> 3. In relation to correlations, I have regularly shown that what you have used is not useful.
> 
> 4. Going back well over 10 years I recall how I used your analysis as a sound contra-indication of what was more likely.  Not much has changed.




1. Consistency (in trading/investing) can be a positive attribute, if applied correctly. It can also be a negative if it closes your mind to new information and developments. I'll take your comment as a positive, so ta!

2. Well I haven't really made (recently) too many comments on technical analysis other than showing correlations. Clearly you didn't appreciate those as they contradicted your beliefs, which can often be uncomfortable.

3. If by 'shown' you mean offered your 'opinion', well yes you have.

4. Well if you say so. It seems that you are saying that I was wrong and you were right. Entirely possible, I am often wrong on the market.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

I am not interested in a competition with you as I am trying to explain where my thinking on the gold market sits each time I post.
I also have extensively used charts to demonstrate probable direction and constraints, based on simple patterns.
On the other hand I read pearls from you like this:


ducati916 said:


> Gold is correlated Treasury yield (both positively and negatively).



Any data can be correlated against other data.  But for a correlation to be meaningful* it cannot be both positive and negative at the same time*.

Back on topic.
*The GOLD BUG'S INDEX*
The HUI's step change from last year's breakout is shown below:


So now let's put that into perspective:


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> I am not interested in a competition with you as I am trying to explain where my thinking on the gold market sits each time I post.




So here is your previous post:

_The best thing about your posts is their consistency = unhelpful here.
Your points on technical analysis and charting are puerile.
In relation to correlations, I have regularly shown that what you have used is not useful.
Going back well over 10 years I recall how I used your analysis as a sound contra-indication of what was more likely. Not much has changed._

Possibly you could expound on your thinking here. I thought you were just being rude, obviously I have missed the point.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> On the other hand I read pearls from you like this:
> 
> Any data can be correlated against other data.  But for a correlation to be meaningful* it cannot be both positive and negative at the same time*.




As we are talking about 'Bonds', actually, you can because a bond has 2 components: (a) price and (b) yield which are inversely correlated to each other. Therefore gold can be either positively correlated (price) or inversely correlated (yield) at the same time.

I should have explained myself, but I thought you understood, my apologies.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> As we are talking about 'Bonds', actually, you can because a bond has 2 components: (a) price and (b) yield which are inversely correlated to each other. Therefore gold can be either positively correlated (price) or inversely correlated (yield) at the same time.
> 
> I should have explained myself, but I thought you understood, my apologies.
> 
> jog on
> duc



A correlation coefficient has only *one *value = *r*.
But above you introduced two separate concepts with gold and proposed that each has a separate correlation coefficient simultaneously, which is true.  Yet you were quite specific in your original quote in mentioning *yield, *so it is impossible for it to have two simultaneously different values.
I'm not here to correct your logic, so do yourself a favour and present what you claim more clearly.

I recall my point about correlations being along the lines of them being after the fact, and of no real value unless it is possible to know the key variable and what drives it.  Gold and bonds have identifiable relationships over time, but I would argue that neither is a price driver.  I am happy to be shown otherwise.

Gold and debt have a relationship over time, and in the case of debt, the direction is clear.  Furthermore, as we know with a high level of probability that debt will increase, we can reasonable surmise gold will ultimately trend with that relationship.  So from an investment perspective gold prices are very likely to hold their value or increase when there is pressure on meeting debt obligations.

In the short term I have no confidence in gold's direction, so here I post the charts showing how trends have developed and how they relate to gold's prior history.

I use what I post to inform myself about trading.  For example, I had intended to buy EVN shares on Monday, but withdrew the bid because POG spiked when the gold market opened.  Such spikes are usually unsustainable and lead to a lot of price choppiness.  That has not yet subdued, so I have not ventured another bid.  Maybe tomorrow, maybe next week - right now I am happy to wait.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. I recall my point about correlations being along the lines of them being after the fact, and of no real value unless it is possible to know the key variable and what drives it.  Gold and bonds have identifiable relationships over time, but I would argue that neither is a price driver.  I am happy to be shown otherwise.
> 
> 2. Gold and debt have a relationship over time, and in the case of debt, the direction is clear.  Furthermore, as we know with a high level of probability that debt will increase, we can reasonable surmise gold will ultimately trend with that relationship.  So from an investment perspective gold prices are very likely to hold their value or increase when there is pressure on meeting debt obligations.




1. Well that variable is well known. It is simply that both assets are considered 'risk off' assets. That is of course gold itself, not gold miners. The advantage of Bonds over gold (market perception) is that they (generally) produce a yield, whereas gold relies upon capital appreciation for a return. Hence when Bonds yield above inflation, they are (generally) preferred to gold. Hence the correlation (which is a strong one).

2. Incorrect. As already previously demonstrated.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. Well that variable is well known. It is simply that both assets are considered 'risk off' assets. That is of course gold itself, not gold miners. The advantage of Bonds over gold (market perception) is that they (generally) produce a yield, whereas gold relies upon capital appreciation for a return. Hence when Bonds yield above inflation, they are (generally) preferred to gold. Hence the correlation (which is a strong one).
> 
> 2. Incorrect. As already previously demonstrated.
> 
> jog on
> duc



We know the reason for the correlation between gold and bonds, but neither drives the direction of their prices: each serves a difference purpose.  However, they react to external factors, or price drivers.
It is true that gold relies on capital appreciation for a return, so the question is why it appreciates at all.  Unless you can answer that, your analysis is deficient.
So in the doom and gloom of today's impending market carnage, here's the Australian take on where gold today sits:


----------



## qldfrog

As i read the graph: still positive for gold short & mid term


----------



## rederob

This post from the other week shows what happened when gold was last sold down heavily.  
The same has not occurred this time, as noted below.


We are in a market gripped with fear.
Despite this POG has held up extremely well.
POG is certainly different the price of gold producers, but you will note the disproportionate decline in gold producer equity prices.
These producers are still selling their gold either into hedges, or at the higher spot prices that prevail.
Buy the dips, but be cautious in the present irrational market.


qldfrog said:


> As i read the graph: still positive for gold short & mid term



Not positive in the near term, but the ascending trend for the medium term is unaffected.  Indeed, gold was overextended and needed to consolidate in the lower $1600s (based on patterns) before substantively conquering $1700.
The question everyone should be asking is why the market has not punished gold as it has everything else.
The other question, if you are an investor, is what you think the chances are of a plus-$1700 POG are this year, rather than a minus-$1500.
(As I post, POG had just cleared $1580, suggesting for now a series of higher lows is probable.)


----------



## ducati916

Coincidence?





jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. We know the reason for the correlation between gold and bonds, but neither drives the direction of their prices: each serves a difference purpose.
> 
> 2. However, they react to external factors, or price drivers.
> 
> 3. It is true that gold relies on capital appreciation for a return, so the question is why it appreciates at all.  Unless you can answer that, your analysis is deficient.




1. Incorrect. That is precisely what drives their price direction.

2. My position is that they do not and have provided my reasons as to why. I have yet to see any reasons, argument, or evidence from you to support your position.

3. I have answered that many times: gold is money, everything else is credit. But money's price can also fluctuate. The price of money fluctuates with the return on money: present value against future value, which must (try to) account for inflation/deflation.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. Incorrect. That is precisely what drives their price direction.
> 
> 2. My position is that they do not and have provided my reasons as to why. I have yet to see any reasons, argument, or evidence from you to support your position.
> 
> 3. I have answered that many times: gold is money, everything else is credit. But money's price can also fluctuate. The price of money fluctuates with the return on money: present value against future value, which must (try to) account for inflation/deflation.
> 
> jog on
> duc



*1.*  I suggest you learn to write meaningfully as you have simply described a relationship that exists between variables, and *not *a price driver.
*2.*  Markets react to *sentiment* which reflects external factors.  Markets are not immediately rational.  There are thousands of books that tell us this.  If you think otherwise then you need to explain why Trump's separate announcements on Monday and Friday significantly affected equity markets in opposite directions.
*3.*  Gold is gold, and nowhere is used as "money."  Gold does not turn into something else and then "fluctuate" in value.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> *
> 1.*  I suggest you learn to write meaningfully as you have simply described a relationship that exists between variables, and *not *a price driver.
> 
> *2.*  Markets react to *sentiment* which reflects external factors.  Markets are not immediately rational.  There are thousands of books that tell us this.  If you think otherwise then you need to explain why Trump's separate announcements on Monday and Friday significantly affected equity markets in opposite directions.
> 
> *3.*  Gold is gold, and nowhere is used as "money."  Gold does not turn into something else and then "fluctuate" in value.




1. Oh, but it is a price driver.

2. Present value and future value are individual preferences, which is 'sentiment' writ large. These values are expressed as 'interest rates'. Currently, yields are increasing (measured in basis points to be sure). The important takeaway though is with real yields negative, Bonds also are relying on price appreciation to provide a return. That makes them directly equivalent to gold in this respect. But the higher the yield moves (because the assumption, which I don't agree, is that Treasuries are risk free) the more gold will fall, unless, inflation, really strikes up and exceeds the real yield (as it did in the 1970-1981 period) and then gold will rise even into higher yields.

3. Gold has been used as money from the time money existed. The price of money, like a price of anything, fluctuates.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. Oh, but it is a price driver.
> 
> 2. Present value and future value are individual preferences, which is 'sentiment' writ large. These values are expressed as 'interest rates'. Currently, yields are increasing (measured in basis points to be sure). The important takeaway though is with real yields negative, Bonds also are relying on price appreciation to provide a return. That makes them directly equivalent to gold in this respect. But the higher the yield moves (because the assumption, which I don't agree, is that Treasuries are risk free) the more gold will fall, unless, inflation, really strikes up and exceeds the real yield (as it did in the 1970-1981 period) and then gold will rise even into higher yields.
> 
> 3. Gold has been used as money from the time money existed. The price of money, like a price of anything, fluctuates.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Your points lack logic.


----------



## rederob

While there is an inverse relationship between bonds and gold, it is inconsistent and does not reflect the scale of movements.  This was most evident in the week commencing 24 February, below:


----------



## Knobby22

Gold is not currency. It's a metal. History has moved on.

In Mad Max, no one cares about it.

If the world went to hell, I can't see all the baubles (diamonds, pearls, etc.) being worth much to anyone.

Think what you really would need. A bit of shiny metal (in rings on half the population) ain't going to be important.

Medicines for instance would be valuable.
Guns, seeds, fishing tackle, fuel, food, books with knowledge, good land, strong sons, livestock etc.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Your points lack logic.





Or you simply can't refute them.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

COT




No support (yet) from the Commercials.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Knobby22 said:


> Gold is not currency. It's a metal. History has moved on.
> 
> In Mad Max, no one cares about it.
> 
> If the world went to hell, I can't see all the baubles (diamonds, pearls, etc.) being worth much to anyone.
> 
> Think what you really would need. A bit of shiny metal (in rings on half the population) ain't going to be important.
> 
> Medicines for instance would be valuable.
> Guns, seeds, fishing tackle, fuel, food, books with knowledge, good land, strong sons, livestock etc.





Some quotes for you:


_However, counterfeit is also a medium of exchange. Therefore, a more precise definition of both money and counterfeit are required. Money mediates the exchange of full value for full value. Counterfeit represents the exchange of fractional value (or no value at all) for the exchange of full value. Money, therefore, represents productive work and counterfeit represents theft from productive work.

Aristotle NICHOMACHEAN ETHICS


Commodities, says Say, are ultimately paid for not by money, but by other commodities. Money is merely the commonly used medium of exchange; it plays only an intermediary role. What the seller wants ultimately to receive in exchange for the commodities sold is other commodities

Money, per se, cannot be consumed and cannot be used directly as a producers’ good in the productive process. Money per se is therefore unproductive; it is dead stock and produces nothing

The services which money renders can be neither improved nor repaired by changing the supply of money. … The quantity of money available in the whole economy is always sufficient to secure for everybody all that money does and can do

An essential point in the social philosophy of interventionism is the existence of an inexhaustible fund which can be squeezed forever. The whole system of interventionism collapses when this fountain is drained off: The Santa Claus principle liquidates itself

_
jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

The week closed miserably for gold bugs.
Here's the medium term snapshot:


The only saving grace was that it recovered slightly towards the end of trading.
Without data to support my idea, Friday's selldown was likely prompted by some large gold profit takers transferring into US equities, which bounced over 9.3%.
My suspicion is that equity markets are going to keep declining, so if that proves true, then next week will see gold recover.


----------



## rederob

While we tend to focus on how much prices changed over a day, this 5-minute chart for POG over the past 2 days shows that there is still support for gold.  It just got overwhelmed by a few large selloffs, possibly prompted by one of the craziest days on the DOW you will see, where it added 1450 points (over 6%)  in the last 25 minutes of trading.


I anticipate a more sombre mood in the markets next week as COVID-19 bites deeper in North America and Europe in particular.


----------



## finicky

Someone I follow on twitter, Northstar @Northst18363337, was saying this on Mar 13,
"I heard some Elliot Wave target in the *$1430* region. This fits in very well with an earlier chart of mine. It'll test your nerves though"


----------



## rederob

finicky said:


> Someone I follow on twitter, Northstar @Northst18363337, was saying this on Mar 13,
> "I heard some Elliot Wave target in the *$1430* region. This fits in very well with an earlier chart of mine. It'll test your nerves though"
> View attachment 101361



Here's a variation on your theme with weekly POG charted below @finicky:


For simplicity above I have shown the trend channels for the respective bull runs for POG using the November 2015 low value of approx $1050 as the starting point.
The initial bull run was frenetic by comparison with where we are now.

Whichever way we might want to cut it, COVID-19 gave POG a premature peak, and the come-down has been dramatic.  We got to $1700 many months ahead of where a more orderly progression would have taken us.

What occurred last week might have been nasty, but that's what happens to gold from time to time.  In bull markets I welcome the return to a more realistic level, and while it would be nice to see a quick bounce to the $1600s, we are still sitting comfortably within the ascending price band.


----------



## rederob

The Elliott wave target of $1430 crept into view overnight, with a plunge that ranged through $125 before a recovery of sorts got underway.
As I post, POG is struggling around the $1500 mark, albeit within an intra-day recovery.
Given what the Dow went through over the past few trading days, POG is doing comparatively well.
The wall of worry wonders where to park money as recent weeks have seen both gold and treasuries heading in the same direction, exemplified again yesterday as each declined.


The trend presently remains downward although momentum is suggesting a breakthrough is possible, but currently on very light volumes.
I have a suspicion that if POG does not breakdown with everything else, it's status as a store of value will return and POG will recover firmly in coming weeks.
If we take the longer term view, then we can equate the economic conditions now prevailing as *similar to those after the GFC *that rocketed POG to record highs over the next 3 years.  And for the record, POG collapsed $300/oz after peaking in March 2008 slightly over $1000/oz.  The only real difference is that COVID-19 has compressed the 2020 declined into a very brief timeframe as the global pandemic has been realised in a few months.
(POG at $1512 as I post.)


----------



## rederob

There's no rainbows to be found in global markets at present so here's my take on the pot of gold the lucky Irish wish for:


Still early days in this COVID-19 inspired crash so anything can happen!
Hard to believe that on 9 March POG ran through $1700, and 5 days later had dropped as low as $1450.  The next day POG pushed back over $1550 before running out of steam, and was trading in a comparatively tight range around $1530 after midnight.  As I was writing this POG jumped quickly higher to $1545, and as quickly again fell back as I post.
On trend then, it suggests a series of higher lows is likely to soon see us over last September's peak.

Outside of the gold market I expect things to get materially worse for at least a few more months.


----------



## rederob

The chart below magnifies and updates the recent days' trend from post #12105.
Support is still holding, although today POG has been weak.
I have added my personal "*wall of worry*" to the chart as if it breaks through this then gold is in trouble, at least for the near term.
I remain confident that gold will recover all its losses this year as there really are not many other places you can park your money.
And if I am wrong, then I will be like the millions of others who have regarded gold as a store of value.  However, it would also be an interesting proposition for the Central Banks who would have had trillions of dollars worth of physical gold turn into cheap trinkets.  Somehow I cannot see that happening.


----------



## rederob

Zooming in on the above chart at a daily level from last October to see how close we are to the "wall of worry":



And here's the same chart again, but at 15 minute intervals over recent hours showing a declining trend nearing the wall:


What you might not have noticed that POG dropped $10 between this post and the one above - just 30 minutes ago - and was still trending down, below $1470 as I pressed "post".
It should bounce... trust me . 

[Footnote: gold takes as much notice of me as my wife - neither know better!]


----------



## finicky

So relaxed .. Coopers pale ale .. really ..  had it for breakfast, lol


----------



## rederob

And to finish my gold posts today on a near high, or at least a big smile, here's what gold looks like to Australians :


----------



## finicky

Exactly, plus lower oil prices for machinery. Although we don't know the implications for supply of parts and reagents yet for Oz gold miners.
Or what Wuhan plague infections on the gold field might do.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> And if I am wrong, then I will be like the millions of others who have regarded gold as a store of value.




To state that gold is a 'store of value' is to state that gold is money. A proposition that I agree with.

Money is a commodity. As a commodity, its price will (and needs to) fluctuate. Gold was 'legal' money until August 1971, when Nixon was forced to close the gold window.

The tricky question is: what is the true value of gold? You cannot value it like a business, discounted cash-flows or any other methodology used, as gold generates no cash-flows.

Gold will be valued (estimated) through broad exchange across economies. In inflationary times, the price will rise, in deflationary times the price will fall.

However, gold as money (or an asset) will always be in competition with other asset classes for returns. The closest competitor are Bonds. Sovereign Bonds (which are considered risk free depending upon Government issuing) compete with gold for investor capital, which provides the volatility in price. The lower the real return on other asset classes, the higher the price of gold. 

Gold is also the asset of uncertainty, which, we have currently.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> However, gold as money (or an asset) will always be in competition with other asset classes for returns. The closest competitor are Bonds. Sovereign Bonds (which are considered risk free depending upon Government issuing) compete with gold for investor capital, which provides the volatility in price. The lower the real return on other asset classes, the higher the price of gold.



Market uncertainty has had gold and bonds regularly running in tandem, as exemplified below in the period from late January 2020:


So *it's not true to presume they are always competing*, and it is least true in uncertain times.

Here's where we see POG start our day:
	

		
			
		

		
	



Not at all promising, so.........


But if you ascribed to @ducati916's school of thought then the above is not really possible.  It's the  difference between theory and the real world that we need to disambiguate in markets.
Right now there is a struggle of market sentiment running in tandem with fiat currency interdependencies that *price *gold quite differently.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Market uncertainty has had gold and bonds regularly running in tandem, as exemplified below in the period from late January 2020:
> 
> 2. So *it's not true to presume they are always competing*, and it is least true in uncertain times.
> 
> 
> 3. But if you ascribed to @ducati916's school of thought then the above is not really possible.  It's the  difference between theory and the real world that we need to disambiguate in markets.
> 
> 4. Right now there is a struggle of market sentiment running in tandem with fiat currency interdependencies that *price *gold quite differently.




1. The correlation goes back far further than January 2020, how about 1971 as a start.

2. Incorrect. Bonds and Gold have been competing since 1971 as at that point the US went off the gold standard and inflation started to ratchet higher. Bond yields lagged the rate of inflation (seriously) and POG continued to rise. Only when the rate of interest exceeded the rate of inflation, which had the 10yr yielding 15%, did inflation reverse, as did, the POG.

3. So currently we have a situation where since 2001 where 'low' interest rates have predominated, the POG has risen (or stayed relatively stable) through that same time period. IF yield rises, POG will fall, which we have already seen with only 'basis points' increase in yield.

4. Yield governs fiat exchange rates also, as should be abundantly clear in the massive carry trades that predominate within the fx world.






jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. The correlation goes back far further than January 2020, how about 1971 as a start.
> 
> 2. Incorrect. Bonds and Gold have been competing since 1971 as at that point the US went off the gold standard and inflation started to ratchet higher. Bond yields lagged the rate of inflation (seriously) and POG continued to rise. Only when the rate of interest exceeded the rate of inflation, which had the 10yr yielding 15%, did inflation reverse, as did, the POG.
> 
> 3. So currently we have a situation where since 2001 where 'low' interest rates have predominated, the POG has risen (or stayed relatively stable) through that same time period. IF yield rises, POG will fall, which we have already seen with only 'basis points' increase in yield.
> 
> 4. Yield governs fiat exchange rates also, as should be abundantly clear in the massive carry trades that predominate within the fx world.
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc



My posted charts show your points are regularly untrue.  
But you insist you are right.
*This thread is about determining direction.*
You have again said a lot but as usual are going to rely on *after the fact* information to state the obvious.  
What you have never yet shown is what drives any of the components.
I say it's ultimately *debt*. 
In the near term too many other factors are at play.
I remain bullish on gold now, especially, as the world over is printing valueless money faster than COVID-19 can spread.


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. The correlation goes back far further than January 2020, how about 1971 as a start.



Ok, here's the 9 year period from August 1971 when Bretton Woods was scrapped:



The shaded periods above were recessionary.
If we are to believe you, this relationship (correlation) is wrong!
Maybe 9 years of being wrong is not enough?
Here's a separate period of 9 years:



And here's the period immediately afterwards (ie from 1995) to the present, and the relationship is now mostly inverted:



So when we go back to 1971 as you suggest then we get very long periods of the *opposite* to what you think holds true.


----------



## peter2

@rederob Thanks for the golden updates. I see that you're monitoring the POG with obvious enjoyment. Had a chuckle when I saw the "wall of worry" appear. $1450 is such an obvious level that it may be tested just to see what happens.

Like you I've been bullish gold since the Dec19 break-out. I can't say it's been all smooth trend trading. The depth of the selloff from $1700 caught me and my gold stocks by surprise. Ouch.

In the past two days I've been accumulating some leveraged gold ETFs (NUGT @ $6, JNUG @ $4) just because they're so low, rather than buy gold stocks. These leveraged ETFs can only go to zero if the POG falls more than 30% in a day. That's unlikely, although many thought that about the POO. That went close when the Saudi's dropped their POO suddenly.

As if on queue the POG has rallied during the Aussie session. Onward and upward to the old high at $1700, then even higher? The leveraged ETFs will be worth much more if this happens.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Ok, here's the 9 year period from August 1971 when Bretton Woods was scrapped:
> View attachment 101522
> 
> 
> The shaded periods above were recessionary.
> If we are to believe you, this relationship (correlation) is wrong!
> Maybe 9 years of being wrong is not enough?
> Here's a separate period of 9 years:
> View attachment 101523




From 1971 through 1980, inflation exceeded the yield. Thus, you see in the chart exactly what you would expect to see: viz rising POG and rising yield.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> And here's the period immediately afterwards (ie from 1995) to the present, and the relationship is now mostly inverted:
> View attachment 101525




From 2001, where yields were again lowered by Greenspan, is when the rise in the POG entered its bull market (as yield dropped). Exactly what you would expect to see.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

The 'missing' element in the calculation, not shown (demonstrated) by the charts is the rate of inflation which provides the real 'return' on a Bond's yield and confirms the 'why/how' of this relationship of Bonds/Gold.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

@peter2  As you can see from this chart, POG in AUD terms - *green* & *gold* trend channel - is going gangbusters:




While *we are up over 16% since January*, POG in *USD is **down over 2%.*

As for that *wall of worry* being hit - not yet, and as I post POG is now at $1512 and has been rising nicely in the past 2 hours.
Good luck with your EFTs, but on my reckoning the worst is behind us for a while.


----------



## rederob

The big ticket item in the chart below is the massive surge in trading volumes.
The chart is too small to pick up the cause, but it's associated with regular, huge selloffs after gold peaked over $1700/oz.
Despite these splurges that *wall of worry* I posted earlier has not been broken down.  I admit to being surprised, but it's only been 2 weeks and still remains possible.
My suspicion is that US sentiment towards COVID-19 effects over the weekend will weigh heavily on markets early in the week.  Thereafter I reckon many of us will be inured to the goings on be less inclined to play with fire.


----------



## wayneL

rederob said:


> @peter2  As you can see from this chart, POG in AUD terms - *green* & *gold* trend channel - is going gangbusters:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> While *we are up over 16% since January*, POG in *USD is **down over 2%.*
> 
> As for that *wall of worry* being hit - not yet, and as I post POG is now at $1512 and has been rising nicely in the past 2 hours.
> Good luck with your EFTs, but on my reckoning the worst is behind us for a while.



That says more about our shekel than it does about POG. In the store of value equation gold does do what it says on the box at this point in time, at least as far as our dollar is concerned.

However several commodities could actually fulfil the same function, maybe with a bit more volatility to add in but still ...

Caveat, I like to adding some sort of minimum value analysis to commodities. 

Opportunities are rare but it is consistently the best and most consistent way to profit.

Which begs the question, what is the minimum value of gold at this current time?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

wayneL said:


> That says more about our shekel than it does about POG. In the store of value equation gold does do what it says on the box at this point in time, at least as far as our dollar is concerned.




Come on give the gold some credit man, it was trading 1150 in USD or whatever and it's certainly a lot higher than that now. The bull run in XAU/AUD was not all AUD/USD driven.


----------



## rederob

InsvestoBoy said:


> Come on give the gold some credit man, it was trading 1150 in USD or whatever and it's certainly a lot higher than that now. The bull run in XAU/AUD was not all AUD/USD driven.



None of it was.
The previous  chart simply shows how significant exchange rates are.
That’s why I believe most Australian gold producers are presently undervalued in the market.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

rederob said:


> None of it was.




lol, what? Are you saying that none of the bull run in XAU/AUD was driven by a fall in AUD/USD?


----------



## wayneL

InsvestoBoy said:


> Come on give the gold some credit man, it was trading 1150 in USD or whatever and it's certainly a lot higher than that now. The bull run in XAU/AUD was not all AUD/USD driven.



No, of course not. but it is a factor that cannot be ignored for us as Australians having to buy gold in the Australian shekel.

There is a reason I have always had some holdings in physical gold though , admittedly fairly modest. There is also a reason I added to those holdings last year at roughly the $1,250 USD level, still admittedly modest, compared to some other folks.

Elsewhere I have detailed some edition of silver at roughly around the $12 USD level.

So, yes, I do give the precious metals a fair degree of credit.

Goddammit, I wished I had bought an absolute crapper load more at around 1250.


----------



## rederob

InsvestoBoy said:


> lol, what? Are you saying that none of the bull run in XAU/AUD was driven by a fall in AUD/USD?



The definitive breakout of POG in AUD terms occurred on 31 May 2019 when it closed at an all time record high.
Two months later XAUAUD had increased by over 10% yet there was only a fractional change in the AUD:USD.  Curiously, during most of this period both POG and the AUD were rising in value.
The initial XAUAUD bull run's closing peak occurred on 3 September as per the chart below, by which time XAUAUD had increased by over 23%, yet the AUD:USD exchange rate had only declined by 2 percentage points.


There is no doubt that declines in the Australian dollar typically lead to increases in POG in AUD terms.
However, the first few months of the actual breakout of the XAUAUD were typified by the reverse of this relationship.


----------



## rederob

Apologies to artists for my smiley face, but at least gold began trading on a happy note this morning.


ps: it's supposed to be a golden-haired boy, and not a Trump likeness.


----------



## rederob

Three points:

Support at $1450 held
Uptrend has resumed
Trading volume step-changes suggest bull market is confirmed



Although a larger chart is needed to pick up on prior month trading volumes it is no coincidence that it overlaps COVID-19's large-scale spread beyond China's walls.


COVID-19's initial big move was into Korea, followed by Europe largely via Italy, and now the USA and everywhere else.
Markets generally are still in "panic" mode so it's impractical to think that gold is unlikely to crash merely because it has survived to date.
I am a believer in buying the dips, but right now the roller coaster down is scaring the bejeebers out of everyone and it's anyone's guess what they will sell in order to preserve *fiat money*.


----------



## sptrawler

I wonder if this current crisis and the resultant unbelievable injection of cash around the World, will cause a further disconnect with the POG, the historical significance of gold as a form of currency seems to be diminishing when one would think it should be increasing.
If indeed the Governments are heading toward a 'cashless' system, where would gold fit in? Might we be at 'peak gold'?
I've never followed gold and don't hold.
Just my pondering.


----------



## rederob

Gold bulls appear to have decided that the Fed's money printing response to COVID-19 is the signal they needed to jump back on board - probably for the long haul.
The 5-minute chart below shows that gold was fickle as it consolidated above its recent lows.
Once that phase was over POG took off, launching itself on NY Comex open to race from $1484 to $1584:


Volumes have tailed right off now and POG settled back.
$1600 just a session away - not sure which one, but likely soon.
At a equities level we haven't seen any disruption to mining operations so this rebound will prop up the producers significantly.  I have no idea how susceptible, if at all, the producers are to FIFO workers and flight disruptions, so that would be a consideration for anyone looking to park their money in gold mining shares.


----------



## finicky

Looks ok so far for the W.A miners.

*First COVID-19 case confirmed in the Goldfields*
Tegan Guthrie Kalgoorlie Miner
Sunday, 22 March 2020 4:26PM

https://www.kalminer.com.au/news/ka...se-confirmed-in-the-goldfields-ng-b881496347z

"Unless exempted, all arrivals from interstate to WA will be ordered to self-isolate for 14 days.

Exemptions will apply to essential services and workers, including health and emergency services, defence and policing, mining industry workforces, flight crews and freight of essential goods, via ports and trucks – with strict guidelines in place to monitor and manage this.

“We have come to this decision after wide consultation, and to ensure the new border controls do not impact essential services, our fly-in, fly-out workforce and the delivery of goods and services to our State,” Mr McGowan said."


----------



## finicky

@sptrawler
So called 'Peak Gold' is just a term adapted from the idea of peak oil. The idea was that the peak of production has passed due to all the easy resources having been found and exploited. No matter what the demand, price or technological advances the old peak would never be passed. Nothing to do with its relevance in finance.

Goldbugs would say that gold is showing itself to be as relevant as ever, being increasingly stacked as a central bank reserve and resorted to as safe haven by individuals, fund managers and Asian citizens .

Gold isn't a legal tender currency, so in a cashless society it could still be converted to electronic money just like it is today (presumably). Gold is a monetary asset, or just real money to some, but it is not a currency even though it might be traded at a currency desk in some bank.


----------



## rederob

finicky said:


> Looks ok so far for the W.A miners.



Good to know - thanks.
That covers a few big mines.
NCM's Cadia mine is pretty isolated from the COVID-19 regions in NSW and I believe most of its workers are based in and around Orange, so that's handy for Newcrest.  However, its FIFOs into Lihir have ceased and they have not clarified what impact that will have on their March 11 total group guidance of approx 2.1-2.2moz.


----------



## peter2

I seem to have noticed an anomaly I'm unable to solve. 
Two MT4 platforms show the POG (XAUUSD) near $1600 while futures charts show me it's much higher $1675.




Has the POG risen by over $100/oz today?


----------



## peter2

This may explain the anomaly in the POG.


----------



## frugal.rock

POG. Where I think it's going.

Short term, UP.
Medium/ Long term, down like explosive diarrhea. Investors will be lucky to get to the toilet in time.

Staples will be the new safe haven.

F.Rock


----------



## peter2

The conspiracy thickens. 



If this is true then the ETF administrator (Direxion) for NUGT, JNUG may have difficulty also. Both of my positions are profitable and I might tighten the TS on both and may even consider selling half to ensure a BE result at worse. The worst outcome would be a trading halt. 

ps: I noticed that near the US close last night that both NUGT and JNUG fell significantly when the POG didn't. Luckily my TStops were not in the market at the time. Maybe the virus is spreading to the miners and they're having to close some shifts. Worth keeping an eye on this possibility.


----------



## ducati916

From a variety of sources:

_The Financial Times reports today that dealers, refiners and investors around the world are struggling to source adequate gold supplies.  A trio of Switzerland’s largest dealers have announced production delays in recent days, while precious metals dealer Degussa announced that it is having difficulty filling customer orders, as daily demand is running at five times its average. 

“There’s a disconnect between prices in the physical gold market and the prices you see on your screen,” Ronan Manly, analyst at Singapore-based brokerage BullionStar, told the FT. “I don’t think you will find a kilobar presently in Europe and the US for love nor money,” added Ross Norman, a long-time gold trader. “It’s quite extraordinary.”
_
However, re. Miners:

Newmont Mining, Inc. announced it is temporarily closing a quartet of mines in Canada and Peru on account of the virus and withdrawing financial guidance for 2020.  Newmont now expects first quarter production of roughly 1.4 million ounces of gold, below the 1.6-million-ounce quarterly production schedule linearly implied by a full year target of 6.4 million ounces.   On the day, Newmont shares rose 2.7%, lagging the 6.7% gain in the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. 

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

But:

_Before the opening bell, the Federal Reserve pledged to purchase Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.” Minutes later, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York chimed in with plans to buy $75 billion in USTs and $50 billion in agency MBS each and every day, “subject to reasonable prices.”  

For context, the Fed bought $75 billion in Treasurys per month under the so-called QE2 program of 2010 to 2011, and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities per month in the 2012 to 2013 QE3 program. The newly announced weekly pace of $375 billion of Treasury and $200 billion of MBS purchases would add roughly 15% and 18%, respectively, to the central bank’s current holdings of each asset class. That is, per week. 

And that’s not even all.  Beyond ramping up those existing strategies, the Fed is expanding its QE into different realms, announcing the establishment of a pair of facilities, one directly lending to new corporate debt issuers and the other to a so-called special purpose vehicle which will then purchase corporate bonds on the secondary market (issues must be rated investment grade by at least two agencies and mature in five years or less) as well as ETFs which “provide broad exposure” to the investment-grade bond market.  

Step aside, Mr. Market. Uncle Sam is buying you out.
_
Gold (physical) will have a bid certainly while this enormous QE runs its course. The kicker is '_subject to reasonable prices'_, which is a subjective get out of gaol clause.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Update:

_A second straight rip in gold took the yellow metal to $1,625 an ounce on the spot market this afternoon, near its recent $1,680 per ounce high and within 15% below its long-term peak reached in 2011. 

Supply shortages owing to the widespread cessation of business activity play a key role.  After yesterday’s announcement from Newmont Mining, Inc. (the world’s largest) that it was idling a quartet of mines across Canada and Peru, competitors have followed suit.  This morning, Toronto-based Iamgold Corp. announced it has placed its Westwood mine under “care and maintenance”, while Eldorado Gold will minimize operations at the Lamaque mine in Quebec until April 13, maintaining only essential personnel on site.  Yesterday, the South African government ordered mines to shut down for 21 days, while a number of refineries in Switzerland and Canada have also halted operations.   

The acute shortage of physical gold has reached historic proportions, with COMEX futures for June delivery priced at a $57 premium to London spot prices this morning.  According to Bloomberg, that’s the largest divergence between the most active contracts since 1980.  “If you need to borrow gold in the OTC [over-the-counter] markets right now, you are going to pay a king’s ransom” commented Ole Hanson, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. 

While that tightening liquidity can be largely chalked up to supply and workplace disruptions resulting from the pandemic, Bill Fleckenstein, president and eponym at Fleckenstein Capital, tells ADG today that the unusual price discrepancies are symptoms of a fundamental problem:

The modern gold market is run, by design, on skimpy physical supply.  In normal times, buyers of the physical metal can be overwhelmed by sellers of the paper product.  That dynamic has been turned on its head.   

Stateside, the extraordinary policy response from the Federal Reserve, which yesterday promised daily Treasury and MBS purchases on par with the monthly targets of prior QE programs, further stir the bullish zeitgeist. Yesterday, the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped to 0.8% from a post-2009 low of 0.5%, perhaps signifying renewed inflation expectations among the general investing public. 

Supply will come back online, and liquidity conditions will improve as buyers and sellers return to the office. Yet the Fed’s increasingly broad-based market interventions are likely to remain, if history is any guide.  Analysts at Goldman Sachs declared this morning: “We have long argued that gold is the currency of last resort, acting as a hedge against currency debasement when policy makers act to accommodate shocks such as the one being experienced now.” 

They said it, so we don’t have to (again). 
_
jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

As @peter2 noted, overnight there were crazy happenings for gold traders as the market went into brief backwardation.
Currently POG sits firmly around $1630 having consolidated over $1620 for the past 6 hours.


Expect more wildness as last night's volatility may be in part due to options expiration later this week, with many traders buying or selling to protect positions.
As many gold mines in the Americas and South Africa are closing due to COVID-19, Oz producers hold the whip hand in terms of meeting the physical supply shortage.  Activities at the Perth Mint and with  PMGOLD should offer some insights on impending physical supply shortages.


----------



## rederob

A thankful pause overnight with little price action as per the below 15 minute chart:


The standout was POG's strong price trading range with minimal volumes (unprecedented in recent years).
Current direction is sideways.
Consolidation for a few weeks would be welcome.
Based on volatility POG's near-term resistance level can occur any day.
With many nations having announced their stimulus packages we are getting near to the "new normal" on the economic front.  However, until we see a flattening of the COVID-19 curve anything is still possible.


----------



## rederob

*Gold and the 1929 Crash Aftermath*
For simplicity, Homestake Mining is used as a surrogate for gold stocks.
Homestake Mining rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - a total return of 520% excluding dividends. Over the next six years Homestake paid out a total of $128 in cash dividends (the 1935 dividend alone was $56 per share).

*Gold and the 1973/1974 Market Crash *
From the market high in 1973 to its low in 1974 the DJIA and the S&P 500 each lost almost half their value, while previously high-flying technology stocks plummeted more than 60%.
The Gold Mining Index, composed of ASA, Campbell Red Lake and Dome Mining, appreciated more than 260% from its 1973 low (40) to its 1974 high (147).

*Gold in Present Perspective*
We entered a new bull market for gold last June and, despite some recent extreme volatility, the trend remains solid in an otherwise crumbling marketplace for everything else.


Key points

Unlike fiat money, gold cannot be created from nothing
It has weathered the recent storm of equity markets
It has a history of outperformance of other market segments after financial system meltdowns
On current trend we are a long way from the pace of advance evident from the last bull run.
Investors worried about preserving capital should take note of what has happened in the past in respect of gold.  It's no guarantee it will happen again.  But this time there is a slight difference.  COVID-19 had nothing to do with gold entering a new bull market phase.  Gold was likely to do well into coming years irrespective.  COVID-19 instead provides the perfect ingredients to propel this bull market higher, faster.


----------



## Movendi

The problem is you can't buy the physical stuff anywhere. And the paper stuff doesn't appear to be a true account of the physical backing.
So where do you invest in gold that won't be subject to counter party risk?


----------



## rederob

Movendi said:


> The problem is you can't buy the physical stuff anywhere. And the paper stuff doesn't appear to be a true account of the physical backing.
> So where do you invest in gold that won't be subject to counter party risk?



Producers listed on stock exchanges have the "physical" metal, apart from other parties/individuals who have bought the metal and put it storage.
So I would be looking for low cost producers with large reserves and minimal hedged output.  However, until Australia makes some clear announcements about how far lockdowns will go, I am refraining from buying and equities. 
A separate thread discusses PMGOLD, where the Perth Mint backs your holding with physical metal - worth considering.


----------



## ducati916

Movendi said:


> The problem is you can't buy the physical stuff anywhere. And the paper stuff doesn't appear to be a true account of the physical backing.
> So where do you invest in gold that won't be subject to counter party risk?





_Precious metals prices on Friday closed lower. Gold fell back as physical demand concerns eased and as silver fell on concern that industrial metals demand will suffer as the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread.

Gold prices on Friday fell back on reduced concerns about the availability of physical gold supplies after the London Bullion Market Association said gold suppliers are in talks to use chartered or cargo flights to transport gold to different delivery points across the globe. Gold prices earlier this week saw strength on tightness in the physical gold market. NY Comex gold futures on Tuesday jumped to the highest premium since 1980 against London gold due to tightness of gold in the physical market. Switzerland's gold refining industry, a major hub for processing gold into bars and coins, has largely shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic and airlines around the world have cut back on flights, leaving gold dealers unsure of whether they'll be able to transport bullion around the world to satisfy delivery obligations.
_
jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> *Gold and the 1929 Crash Aftermath*
> For simplicity, Homestake Mining is used as a surrogate for gold stocks.
> Homestake Mining rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - a total return of 520% excluding dividends. Over the next six years Homestake paid out a total of $128 in cash dividends (the 1935 dividend alone was $56 per share).
> 
> *Gold and the 1973/1974 Market Crash *
> From the market high in 1973 to its low in 1974 the DJIA and the S&P 500 each lost almost half their value, while previously high-flying technology stocks plummeted more than 60%.
> The Gold Mining Index, composed of ASA, Campbell Red Lake and Dome Mining, appreciated more than 260% from its 1973 low (40) to its 1974 high (147).
> 
> *Gold in Present Perspective*
> We entered a new bull market for gold last June and, despite some recent extreme volatility, the trend remains solid in an otherwise crumbling marketplace for everything else.
> 
> 
> Key points
> 
> Unlike fiat money, gold cannot be created from nothing
> It has weathered the recent storm of equity markets
> It has a history of outperformance of other market segments after financial system meltdowns
> On current trend we are a long way from the pace of advance evident from the last bull run.
> Investors worried about preserving capital should take note of what has happened in the past in respect of gold.  It's no guarantee it will happen again.  But this time there is a slight difference.  COVID-19 had nothing to do with gold entering a new bull market phase.  Gold was likely to do well into coming years irrespective.  COVID-19 instead provides the perfect ingredients to propel this bull market higher, faster.





This chap thinks gold is in for a retracement. He is another 'chart' analyst and CFA.




What think ye of that?

jog on
duc


----------



## finicky

ducati916 said:


> What think ye of that?




Too messy


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> This chap thinks gold is in for a retracement. He is another 'chart' analyst and CFA.
> What think ye of that?



I don't discount any possibility.
But I prefer to look at what is more probable.
Here's a look at now and then:


For the record, POG got smashed down around $250 after peaking on 9 March 2020, which is about the same as POG fell after Lehman's collapsed in 2008.
My view is that the main difference now is that physical production is being curtailed at many mines and 3 gold refineries, due to COVID-19.  This could get a lot worse, meaning that *paper *gold holders might get very badly burned by not being able to back their contracts with physical - a situation that spooked the market earlier this week.
I have not followed the gold market long enough to know if there was a precedent but, from a global perspective, I doubt it.
Until the likelihood of further production curtailment is behind us, this is a dangerous market to play in. 
I will do here what I have done for a while and take each day as it comes, chart it, and see if it makes sense.


----------



## sptrawler

Several years ago there was talk that China was buying all the gold it could lay its hands on, is that still the case. It was suggested that China may push for a return to the gold standard and if that came about the price of gold would go through the roof, is that train of thought still around.
I don't hold, but am interested.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. I don't discount any possibility.
> But I prefer to look at what is more probable.
> 
> Here's a look at now and then:
> 
> 
> 
> 2. For the record, POG got smashed down around $250 after peaking on 9 March 2020, which is about the same as POG fell after Lehman's collapsed in 2008.
> 
> 3. My view is that the main difference now is that physical production is being curtailed at many mines and 3 gold refineries, due to COVID-19.  This could get a lot worse, meaning that *paper *gold holders might get very badly burned by not being able to back their contracts with physical - a situation that spooked the market earlier this week.
> 
> 4. I have not followed the gold market long enough to know if there was a precedent but, from a global perspective, I doubt it.
> 
> 5. Until the likelihood of further production curtailment is behind us, this is a dangerous market to play in.




1. You say 'probable'. What makes it more probable? Not a chart. That is 50/50 or 33/33/33.

2. Accepted. Are you equating the LEH experience with this? I can certainly see parallels, but there are also significant differences.

3. The (main) difference being lack of physical supply. This is actually not an issue at all. If all gold production just stopped because there was simply no more gold to be mined: then all that needs to take place is that gold reprices higher to accomodate that reality. There is never 'not enough gold (money) to meet needs. 

4. There has been, although it was in the silver market and the Hunt brothers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

5. Well that of course is your opinion and you may well be correct in that. Then again, it may well be a very lucrative trade if you get in/out correctly.

So: 

(a) We now have as much QE in a single day as we had in a month.

If debt is a driver: then with an unprecedented expansion in debt, why has gold meandered? It should have gone past its previous high to new highs...which by my definition would be a 'new bull market'. Currently I would define it as a bounce from the last bull market and current bear market.

(b) COVID-19: is (likely) to be temporary and its effects will pass. Its effects are however effectively twofold (i) infection and morbidity and (ii) the economic effects as a result of (i) and quarantine.

The economic effects are essentially:

(i) loss of production;
(ii) bankruptcies;
(iii) loss of employment;
(iv) liquidity issues in banks (addressed via QE).


The loss of production will create (possibly) short term inflation, although, in saying that in the last 4 days that we have been quarantined in NZ, I haven't spent any money...unheard of, so currently, even in the face of falling supply, demand is falling even faster resulting in an increasingly deflationary environment.



Deflation is not a great driver of gold price appreciation.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

This is an interesting post, because certainly the 1929 - 1933 period was one of severe deflation. The inference being that gold is an effective hedge in a deflationary environment.

_*Gold and the 1929 Crash Aftermath*
For simplicity, Homestake Mining is used as a surrogate for gold stocks.
Homestake Mining rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - a total return of 520% excluding dividends. Over the next six years Homestake paid out a total of $128 in cash dividends (the 1935 dividend alone was $56 per share)._

Using an individual stock as a proxy for an entire sector is not really a valid way to proceed. Individual (mining) stocks as opposed to say an ETF of mining stocks can have very different drivers for price appreciation (or depreciation).

For mining stocks there would (could) be the following factors that would (should) be taken into account:

(a) life of the mine; and
(b) annual output; and
(c) production costs; and
(d) selling price.

The price appreciation of Homestake was due to two factors that were instrumental in increasing its earnings over the 1930-1932 period and beyond.

(i) Homestake increased the quality of its mined ore.


Grade of Ore (yield in $/ton)
1923 - 3.87
1927 - 4.87
1928 - 4.63
1929 - 4.53
1930 - 6.18
1931 - 6.36
1932 - 7.07

Revenue (net earnings) in '000
1923 - 2,275
1930 - 3,307
1932 - 4,838

The tonnage mined (milled) in 1932 was the same as that mined (milled) in 1926. The increase in earnings was due to improved ore quality.

The second factor was that on March 8 1933 Roosevelt passed the Emergency Banking Act 1933 which prohibited the export or holding of gold, requiring its surrender, by the public, Gold Reserve Act 1934 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act) creating a higher price of $35/oz.

Now this second factor would have held true for all gold mining companies including Homestake.

Homestake's net earnings (in '000) in 1938 were $10,605, a significant increase from 1932 when gold was still $20.67/oz, which would have been reflected in the share price.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

My responses to your points are in *blue*;

1. You say 'probable'. What makes it more probable? Not a chart. That is 50/50 or 33/33/33. *The cost of production is likely to exclude the fall being as deep as charted, and even it was to happen, the correction would be incredibly sharp.  For example, NCM without Cadia is not profitable at $1200/oz.*

3. The (main) difference being lack of physical supply. This is actually not an issue at all. If all gold production just stopped because there was simply no more gold to be mined: then all that needs to take place is that gold reprices higher to accomodate that reality. There is never 'not enough gold (money) to meet needs.  *You have invented a non-current scenario.  The present situation relates to the difference (spread) between paper and physical.*

4. There has been, although it was in the silver market and the Hunt brothers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday *True, but Central Banks hold gold, not silver.*

5. Well that of course is your opinion and you may well be correct in that. Then again, it may well be a very lucrative trade if you get in/out correctly.  *I am principally commenting on gold as an investment strategy, and put trading to one side as I don't like the idea of "luck" predicating money allocation.*

So:
(a) We now have as much QE in a single day as we had in a month.
If debt is a driver: then with an unprecedented expansion in debt, why has gold meandered? It should have gone past its previous high to new highs...which by my definition would be a 'new bull market'. Currently I would define it as a bounce from the last bull market and current bear market. *The implications of debt are not instantaneous, as it is insidious.  Until we are in recovery mode we won't see who is capable of surviving what they have been burdened with.  In the meantime, the knowledge that gold has not been destroyed by this crisis places it in a league of its own as an asset class.  My thesis is that until this debt burden has been lifted then gold will continue to ascend as fiat currencies will be comparatively weak.  We can compare notes again in 2025.*


----------



## IFocus

Thanks gents for the discussion


----------



## rederob

The below chart is a continuation of Sunday's but hones in on the recent action, showing a probable consolidation period a step higher than that which ran from early January to 18 February:


Visibly evident from the *consolidation periods* is the new era of price volatility we exist in, which commenced around 24 February.  Previously gold would typically trade within a $3 range over half an hour, whereas lately its regularly greater than $10.



ducati916 said:


> This chap thinks gold is in for a retracement. He is another 'chart' analyst and CFA.



I just enlarged the chart and it was as at 14 February.  It showed an immediate rapid downward movement yet, in reality, the price actually rose by about $120 over the next 3 weeks.  That's a significant fail!
Is there an update?


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> I just enlarged the chart and it was as at 14 February.  It showed an immediate rapid downward movement yet, in reality, the price actually rose by about $120 over the next 3 weeks.  That's a significant fail!
> Is there an update?




Well an update of sorts:




So I'm guessing he's still short.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

The below chart for the past month is an extension of the trend channel beginning August 2018 from this post:


The price range in March was $250, and the recent range (shaded brown) has clearly narrowed substantially: although at $90 over the last fortnight you can appreciate there remains a lot of volatility.
Those using other charting signals are welcome to add what they think is going to happen next.
I don't know.
Volumes are subdued.
Until the COVID-19 death rate in the USA has peaked, I am reckoning on a very fickle market.


----------



## ducati916

This chap...

_Hello All:

Let's break it down really quickly for those that don't get it. As I have been trying to tell you all, what has happened to the stock market and other markets (for that matter) has been a function of GOVERNMENT INDUCED RECESSION. Have you ever heard of that? No, most of us in the markets are dealing with the fact that government is a by-product of the consequences of what happens in the markets NOT a major factor in the development of it. RIGHT?

Well, what do you think has happened in the last 3-4 weeks? The government has told you to stay home. The government has told you that you JUST lost your job. And the government is the solution to all your problems. RIGHT?

The only analysis that you should do today is has the SILVER market acted correctly in times of CRISIS? No, it has not. In times of crisis, the silver market RALLIES IN A BIG WAY.

NOW, We have some idiots in the field being bullish GOLD. WHY? Has Gold had a good time at 1700 level?

NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT! The Gold market has suffered profusely at the 1700 level. It won't sustain that level in any major way. SILVER IS ONLY A LEADER WHEN THINGS ARE REALLY BAD! What is Silver doing now? floundering between 12-14 levels. That is NOT a power move. GOLD is a weak sister to SILVER.



_
Unfortunately he does not provide any reasoning for his position other than this chart.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> This chap...



Was there a reason to post that?
Here's the trend channel from the beginning of this bull run (from the longer term perspective):


Interestingly, the present price is dead centre.


----------



## rederob

Here's the longer and shorter term bull market channels:


Whichever way you look at it, the trend remains firmly in place for now, despite the biggest shock to global markets since 1929.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Was there a reason to post that?




An alternative viewpoint. This alternative viewpoint is provided widely on a public site that has a fair market reputation, in other words they don't entertain analysis from any Tom, Dick or Harry.

Unfortunately (rather unprofessionally) he did not provide any reasoned argument (apart from offering a chart, which I guess he holds to be self-explanatory) as to why he sees this scenario in a bearish light.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Unfortunately (rather unprofessionally) he did not provide any reasoned argument (apart from offering a chart, which I guess he holds to be self-explanatory) as to why he sees this scenario in a bearish light.



Begging the question as to why bother posting work from elsewhere that is not worth a cracker!
Gold has massively outperformed silver from the onset of its bull market trend.  Yet we got this gem: *"NOW, We have some idiots in the field being bullish GOLD. WHY? Has Gold had a good time at 1700 level?"*
Here's what the comparison looks like since 2018:


Who can see this: *"In times of crisis, the silver market RALLIES IN A BIG WAY."*
About the best truism I could add is, "*buy the dips*."


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Begging the question as to why bother posting work from elsewhere that is not worth a cracker!
> 
> 2. Gold has massively outperformed silver from the onset of its bull market trend.  Yet we got this gem:
> *
> 3. "NOW, We have some idiots in the field being bullish GOLD. WHY? Has Gold had a good time at 1700 level?"*
> 
> 4. Who can see this: *"In times of crisis, the silver market RALLIES IN A BIG WAY."*
> "




1. Why is it worthless? Simply because it does not confirm your position? I say position rather than thesis as you seem to be overly emotional re. any analysis/opinions that oppose your position.

2. Yes it has. I look on Gold and Silver in much the same way as the Dow Industrials/Dow Transports. I like to see confirmation in both metals, they are after all both 'money'.

Look at this chart:




So either:

(a) Silver needs to outperform Gold to close the ratio and confirm the so called 'bull market' that you are calling; or
(b) Silver is sending a warning that all is not well in this move higher for Gold




3. As you see, in the past, Silver has confirmed the bull moves. Currently, it isn't. Is that a concern? It would be to me, at least until I could explain why it was not/is not an issue currently under these conditions.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. Why is it worthless? Simply because it does not confirm your position? I say position rather than thesis as you seem to be overly emotional re. any analysis/opinions that oppose your position.
> 
> 2. Yes it has. I look on Gold and Silver in much the same way as the Dow Industrials/Dow Transports. I like to see confirmation in both metals, they are after all both 'money'.
> 
> Look at this chart:
> 
> View attachment 101971
> 
> 
> So either:
> 
> (a) Silver needs to outperform Gold to close the ratio and confirm the so called 'bull market' that you are calling; or
> (b) Silver is sending a warning that all is not well in this move higher for Gold
> 
> View attachment 101972
> 
> 
> 3. As you see, in the past, Silver has confirmed the bull moves. Currently, it isn't. Is that a concern? It would be to me, at least until I could explain why it was not/is not an issue currently under these conditions.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Response to your points:

There was nothing of merit to your copypaste: even you indicated that was so!  As to my position, you have offered many counters and I seldom see them relevant.  I have explained why on numerous occasions.
Here is the long-term position of both precious metals:
	

		
			
		

		
	



While you say "*I look on Gold and Silver in much the same way as the Dow Industrials/Dow Transports,*" the basis of that relationship does not comport with the above chart.
You add these points:
*(a) Silver needs to outperform Gold to close the ratio and confirm the so called 'bull market' that you are calling; or
(b) Silver is sending a warning that all is not well in this move higher for Gold*​However, there is no rationale to (a).  Silver lagged gold after the GFC and has diverged in the present bull market trend.  Your idea of confirmation is a dubious after effect at best.
In regard to (b), if that is your thesis then it was wrong in respect of the GFC trends, noted in the
chart above.​  3. You are concluding on a contradiction which you, yourself, acknowledge.  

I do not regard your analysis as sound and have stated why, again. And to claim my stance as "overly emotional" is gilding your wilting lily.


----------



## ducati916

My responses in Red.

There was nothing of merit to your copypaste: even you indicated that was so!  As to my position, you have offered many counters and I seldom see them relevant.  I have explained why on numerous occasions.
1. I didn't indicate that it was without merit. I actually said that it was unfortunate that it came sans an argued position. With regard to 'my arguments', that you consider them irrelevant is interesting in the fact that (the majority of) your responses are essentially have a look at this 4hr chart of Gold.





Here is the long-term position of both precious metals:
	

		
			
		

		
	



2. Your argument above is essentially the chart posted by myself (from a 3'rd party) is wrong. Well there are actually two arguments there:

(a) That Gold will fall; and/or
(b) Silver will rise.

Time will tell as far as that goes.


While you say "*I look on Gold and Silver in much the same way as the Dow Industrials/Dow Transports,*" the basis of that relationship does not comport with the above chart.
You add these points:
*(a) Silver needs to outperform Gold to close the ratio and confirm the so called 'bull market' that you are calling; or
(b) Silver is sending a warning that all is not well in this move higher for Gold*​However, there is no rationale to (a).  Silver lagged gold after the GFC and has diverged in the present bull market trend.  Your idea of confirmation is a dubious after effect at best.

2(a). Incorrect. If Silver starts to rise at a faster rate than Gold, the ratio will start to fall. That does not require Gold to fall, only to rise more slowly than Silver, thereby restoring the ratio. The rise of Silver would also confirm (at least to me) that the current move higher in Gold had legs. Of course the ratio could be closed through Gold falling (at a faster rate) compared to Silver, which would have the same effect. That is the 'rationale'.

In regard to (b), if that is your thesis then it was wrong in respect of the GFC trends, noted in the
chart above.

2(b) Incorrect (again). In 2008, as demonstrated in your chart and my chart, in 2008, Silver went higher with Gold, confirming the bull (market) move. That Gold went slightly higher is irrelevant. The ratio in 2008 was 69, which is not an 'extreme' level. The current ratio is 95, which, historically, is high.
​  3. You are concluding on a contradiction which you, yourself, acknowledge.

3. Nonsense. 

I do not regard your analysis as sound and have stated why, again. And to claim my stance as "overly emotional" is gilding your wilting lily.

4. Unfortunately your criticisms are simply without merit as you have not addressed my arguments at all. Rather you have sought to conflate my arguments (in part) with a 3'rd party's position and simply failed to address my arguments at all re. 2(a)(b).

Given your chart, which demonstrates Silver confirming the move in Gold (in 2008), you have provided no comments or arguments as to why Silver is (currently) so absent in this current environment.

My 'position' is (previously stated earlier in thread) that Gold is tied currently to the Treasury market as that market is the risk free benchmark.

Gold, if it was tied to increasing government debt, as you have previously argued, (already demonstrated as incorrect) should with all the new money created, be exceeding its 2011 highs. It is not. Why not?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> My responses in Red.
> 
> There was nothing of merit to your copypaste: even you indicated that was so!  As to my position, you have offered many counters and I seldom see them relevant.  I have explained why on numerous occasions.
> 1. I didn't indicate that it was without merit. I actually said that it was unfortunate that it came sans an argued position. With regard to 'my arguments', that you consider them irrelevant is interesting in the fact that (the majority of) your responses are essentially have a look at this 4hr chart of Gold.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here is the long-term position of both precious metals:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2. Your argument above is essentially the chart posted by myself (from a 3'rd party) is wrong. Well there are actually two arguments there:
> 
> (a) That Gold will fall; and/or
> (b) Silver will rise.
> 
> Time will tell as far as that goes.
> 
> 
> While you say "*I look on Gold and Silver in much the same way as the Dow Industrials/Dow Transports,*" the basis of that relationship does not comport with the above chart.
> You add these points:
> *(a) Silver needs to outperform Gold to close the ratio and confirm the so called 'bull market' that you are calling; or
> (b) Silver is sending a warning that all is not well in this move higher for Gold*​However, there is no rationale to (a).  Silver lagged gold after the GFC and has diverged in the present bull market trend.  Your idea of confirmation is a dubious after effect at best.
> 
> 2(a). Incorrect. If Silver starts to rise at a faster rate than Gold, the ratio will start to fall. That does not require Gold to fall, only to rise more slowly than Silver, thereby restoring the ratio. The rise of Silver would also confirm (at least to me) that the current move higher in Gold had legs. Of course the ratio could be closed through Gold falling (at a faster rate) compared to Silver, which would have the same effect. That is the 'rationale'.
> 
> In regard to (b), if that is your thesis then it was wrong in respect of the GFC trends, noted in the
> chart above.
> 
> 2(b) Incorrect (again). In 2008, as demonstrated in your chart and my chart, in 2008, Silver went higher with Gold, confirming the bull (market) move. That Gold went slightly higher is irrelevant. The ratio in 2008 was 69, which is not an 'extreme' level. The current ratio is 95, which, historically, is high.​  3. You are concluding on a contradiction which you, yourself, acknowledge.
> 
> 3. Nonsense.
> 
> I do not regard your analysis as sound and have stated why, again. And to claim my stance as "overly emotional" is gilding your wilting lily.
> 
> 4. Unfortunately your criticisms are simply without merit as you have not addressed my arguments at all. Rather you have sought to conflate my arguments (in part) with a 3'rd party's position and simply failed to address my arguments at all re. 2(a)(b).
> 
> Given your chart, which demonstrates Silver confirming the move in Gold (in 2008), you have provided no comments or arguments as to why Silver is (currently) so absent in this current environment.
> 
> My 'position' is (previously stated earlier in thread) that Gold is tied currently to the Treasury market as that market is the risk free benchmark.
> 
> Gold, if it was tied to increasing government debt, as you have previously argued, (already demonstrated as incorrect) should with all the new money created, be exceeding its 2011 highs. It is not. Why not?
> 
> jog on
> duc



Blind Freddy could have posted a chart with reasons/explanations as to expectations, but you want to argue that what you posted was useful because it was a different point of view.  That's the *yes it is no it's not* argument, and it is of no merit.
Yes, I provide a regular update on gold's "*heading*" because it is in keeping with the thread's title.
I regularly state that I have no idea where gold is heading in the short-term as there is no reliable predictor that I have seen through several decades of closely following the market.
I regard physical gold as a store of value that is not destroyed in market crashes, so see it as more likely than any other commodity to outperform.
I am not going to address all your points, as here's just one showing you are not good at analysis:
*Given your chart, which demonstrates Silver confirming the move in Gold (in 2008), you have provided no comments or arguments as to why Silver is (currently) so absent in this current environment.*​First, I have little to say about silver generally, except that the charts do not support your contentions.


Leading in to Lehman Bros collapse, (circled above) the gold:silver correlation was tight.  There emerged, however, a significant divergence and it was *contrary *to a suggestion that silver does better than gold in times of crisis.  The 25 percentage points price difference in favour of gold by 2010 apparently means the opposite in your book.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Blind Freddy could have posted a chart with reasons/explanations as to expectations, but you want to argue that what you posted was useful because it was a different point of view.  That's the *yes it is no it's not* argument, and it is of no merit.
> 
> 2. Yes, I provide a regular update on gold's "*heading*" because it is in keeping with the thread's title.
> I regularly state that I have no idea where gold is heading in the short-term as there is no reliable predictor that I have seen through several decades of closely following the market.
> 
> 3. I regard physical gold as a store of value that is not destroyed in market crashes, so see it as more likely than any other commodity to outperform.
> 
> 4. I am not going to address all your points, as here's just one showing you are not good at analysis:
> *Given your chart, which demonstrates Silver confirming the move in Gold (in 2008), you have provided no comments or arguments as to why Silver is (currently) so absent in this current environment.
> *​5. First, I have little to say about silver generally, except that the charts do not support your contentions.
> 
> 6. Leading in to Lehman Bros collapse, (circled above) the gold:silver correlation was tight.  There emerged, however, a significant divergence and it was *contrary *to a suggestion that silver does better than gold in times of crisis.  The 25 percentage points price difference in favour of gold by 2010 apparently means the opposite in your book.




1. A different point of view is important, even if it is without a reasoned argument. Arguably your posts using 4hr charts are circular and without any reasoned argument to support your assertions. A different point of view highlights  the fact that (if any were needed) there are different viewpoints away from the mainstream view.

2. Well I demonstrated one to you (Treasury Yields) which you don't like but cannot disprove.

3. As a 'store of value': Gold is money and is not an immutable store of value. Money (gold/silver) will fluctuate against the goods and services that it purchases, thus altering its 'value' at any given point in time.

4/5.




Do I really need to comment? Surely this is self-explanatory. 

Why is Silver lagging so badly in this current (crisis) environment? Does that not strike you as odd? The ratio is at the highs, suggesting that this relationship cannot hold...something will give: either Silver will start trading higher, confirming the Gold price, or, Gold will sell-off, returning the ratio to a less extreme reading. Given that we are a month into the COVID crisis already, what is Silver waiting for (or for that matter gold)?

Entering into an economic recession, while unpleasant, isn't exactly unknown territory compared to a pandemic. Do you think a recession will be a positive catalyst for Gold to move higher? If so why? (Which rather infers that I take the opposite view)


There is also a new variable that is introducing itself into the market.

The Fed's Balance Sheet is increasing 'debt' of a different type, in that individuals and small businesses are receiving a 'bailout' of sorts, whether this plays into an inflation expectation in the markets. It has run into some snags.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4647685/small-business-relief-program-launches-hits-snags


jog on
duc


----------



## finicky




----------



## ducati916

ducati916 said:


> 3. As a 'store of value': Gold is money and is not an immutable store of value. Money (gold/silver) will fluctuate against the goods and services that it purchases, thus altering its 'value' at any given point in time.







jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

ducati916 said:


> View attachment 102004
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc



Interesting duc, ends in 2010?


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Do I really need to comment? Surely this is self-explanatory.



If it was, then it would need to show something other than a positive correlation which we all agree upon.
I have posted numerous charts that show that silver has not acted as was proposed by your earlier 3rd party, and that silver diverged from gold at the time of the 2008 GFC and moved in opposite directions during the current bull market trend.


ducati916 said:


> Gold is money and is not an immutable store of value.



Show us where gold is used as money.
Show us how gold can be turned into something else.


ducati916 said:


> The Fed's Balance Sheet is increasing 'debt' of a different type, in that individuals and small businesses are receiving a 'bailout' of sorts,...



It's still debt, and bailouts were a common feature of the GFC.


----------



## ducati916

qldfrog said:


> Interesting duc, ends in 2010?





Yes, just looking back through some of my older stuff on file.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. If it was, then it would need to show something other than a positive correlation which we all agree upon. I have posted numerous charts that show that silver has not acted as was proposed by your earlier 3rd party, and that silver diverged from gold at the time of the 2008 GFC and moved in opposite directions during the current bull market trend.
> 
> 2. Show us where gold is used as money.
> 
> 3. Show us how gold can be turned into something else.
> 
> 4. It's still debt, and bailouts were a common feature of the GFC.




1. Silver mirrored Gold all the way from 1973 through 2018. From 2018, Silver has diverged from Gold. As already stated, I use Silver & Gold in the same way as Dow Theory uses Industrials/Transports.

As to the 3'rd party, who cares, unimportant. I just posted his 'opinion' for the reason already stated.

The point is: Silver is not confirming the move in Gold. That is a break (divergence) of some 40+ years. To me that is important and calls into question the sustainability of the current Gold move. If Silver suddenly starts to move higher, I'll be far more interested in the combined move.

2. Gold would be accepted anywhere as payment, except as payment of your taxes. I would happily accept payment in gold or silver.

3. Don't understand the question.

4. Yes it is still 'debt', but the effects could be very different.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. The point is: Silver is not confirming the move in Gold. That is a break (divergence) of some 40+ years. To me that is important and calls into question the sustainability of the current Gold move. If Silver suddenly starts to move higher, I'll be far more interested in the combined move.
> 
> 2. Gold would be accepted anywhere as payment, except as payment of your taxes. I would happily accept payment in gold or silver.
> 
> 3. Don't understand the question.
> 
> 4. Yes it is still 'debt', but the effects could be very different.




You are confusing *correlation *with *confirmation*.  The positive correlation has merely weakened more significantly in 2020.  So if silver moves higher, so will gold.  The only issue is which will move with greater comparative magnitude.
Gold is not money in the everyday sense.  My gold coins are legal tender with a face value of $100.  However at an ounce each they have a store of value that is significantly greater.
Gold is *immutable*, contrary to your claim.
So *debt *is different to *debt *because its effects can be different?  All debt has a counterparty, so a lot will depend on how the debt is expunged.  
Gold has no debt.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> You are confusing *correlation *with *confirmation*.
> The positive correlation has merely weakened more significantly in 2020.  So if silver moves higher, so will gold.
> The only issue is which will move with greater comparative magnitude.
> Gold is not money in the everyday sense.  My gold coins are legal tender with a face value of $100.  However at an ounce each they have a store of value that is significantly greater.
> Gold is *immutable*, contrary to your claim.
> So *debt *is different to *debt *because its effects can be different?
> All debt has a counterparty, so a lot will depend on how the debt is expunged.
> Gold has no debt.




1. Incorrect.

2. The positive correlation is currently not present. Silver is (currently) not confirming the move in Gold. That doesn't mean that it won't moving forward, or that Gold confirms Silver and trades lower, but, currently the correlation is broken. That is one of a number of reasons that I am not convinced that Gold is actually in a bull market (either continued or a new one).

3. Really? I can see more than a single issue. However your confidence in your chart is inspiring.

4. Well I never. Learn something new everyday.

5. Where did I ever say otherwise? Or are you referring to a 'store of value'? If so, the chart actually demonstrates that when gold is money, the money is very stable (good store of value). It still fluctuates, but far less so.

6. It really helps when you don't misquote. Debt is debt. Agreed. Debt's effects can be very different as to who holds that debt, which ought to be blindingly obvious. Why? See point 7.

7. How that debt is expunged is exactly the point, for the value of gold. There is however a second important point: how that debt is used. Previously the new debt went into the financial system with tremendous asset price inflation. Currently, the little guy is actually a recipient of a part of that new debt. That is different. Is it a material difference? Possibly.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

It is one thing to say something, and another to show it.  So I will show you have erred, yet again:


With regard to your 7th point at post #12178 you are separating the issue of *debt *from "*price.*"  These factors affect the economy in different ways.  We are heading into a recession (shaded areas charted below) and gold is likely to do ok.  However, it's the out-years where gold comes into its own:


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> It is one thing to say something, and another to show it.  So I will show you have erred, yet again:





You are seriously trying to prove your point using a 2hr chart?







I'll have to come back to your other points.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> You are seriously trying to prove your point using a 2hr chart?



I showed that over the past fortnight (not the past 2 hours), silver has actually outperformed gold.
This is the *opposite *to your claims such as *"Silver is not confirming the move in Gold.*"


----------



## ducati916

And so another view:




Silver just isn't playing along at the moment.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

And another (6 mths on a % basis) rather than just price.




jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

Your posted charts confirm my earlier points, but not yours.
For example:


ducati916 said:


> 1. Silver mirrored Gold all the way from 1973 through 2018. From 2018, Silver has diverged from Gold.



Yet at post #12182 there is a marked divergence from 2010, as shown below:
	

		
			
		

		
	



It is a long bow to draw and suggest the above is _*mirroring*_.  However, it remains a positive correlation.



ducati916 said:


> Silver is (currently) not confirming the move in Gold.



"*Currently*" means the present, yet you posted a chart going back almost 6 months, while I posted a comparison for recent weeks actually showing silver's outperformance.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. With regard to your 7th point at post #12178 you are separating the issue of *debt *from "*price.*"
> 
> 2. These factors affect the economy in different ways.  We are heading into a recession (shaded areas charted below) and gold is likely to do ok.  However, it's the out-years where gold comes into its own:




1. Again, not really sure what you are referring to with your comment.

2. An interesting chart. 

(a) In 2000 (from April) the Federal Reserve started lowering interest rates, Gold moved higher, which has been my original argument. 

(b) The Fed than had a short period raising rates late 2005 until June 2006 reaching 5.11%, before rates were cut again, which more or less corresponds with your chart.

(c) Rates have headed lower ever since. Gold has headed higher until 2011/2012, when it swooned.

(d) Inflation (CPI variety) has been trending lower since the 1970/1980 period.

So if the yield on Treasuries are nominally close to or at 0% and in real terms negative, can you expect rates to go lower? If so, by how much? It is that negative yield that (to me) gives the potential target for gold's further price appreciation.

In May 2000, when Greenspan started cutting rates, look what happened to the US$




It weakened all the way into 2008, some blips in 2009/2011 and then it started to strengthen 2012 onwards, which is the time that gold swooned. 2017, dollar weakens, gold stronger.

So the question is which is the dog and which the tail (Bonds or Currency). The answer is Bonds are the dog and Currency the tail. Looking at major currencies: Japan, deeply negative, Europe negative, China (not sure on this one), so the US (until the latest cuts) was the one positive yield world wide which attracted capital inflows (strong dollar). Currently, as already stated, the least bad yield wise and providing currency appreciation profits. Obviously there is no exchange rate/yield buffer, so capital inflows are a straight long position, which could create further volatility if positions need to unwind for any reason, due to the net size.

The US$ (rightly/wrongly) is the strongest currency atm due to its reserve status globally. With everybody inflating their currencies currently, that is not going to create a weaker dollar relative to all other currencies, so the US$ will either stay about the same or possibly (even at zero yield) get stronger. If it does strengthen further, I suggest gold will fall.

Currently US$ is at a chart based resistance point. My guess...based on the current situation, is that it moves higher. Only because of that reserve status (the least bad) globally, not that it is anything fantastic fundamentally.

So why is silver lagging? I think largely due to Central Banks buying. Take out the minor players (speculators) of all stripes, the Central Banks will buy gold, but generally not silver and currently the speculators do not seem to be pursuing silver with much zeal. If the US$ starts to fall (instead of rising) then I think silver explodes higher to close the gap.

To trade this possibility: Short gold/Long silver (pairs trade). As to the Miners, they will follow along behind to whatever happens in their physical.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Well Mr Rederob is in good company with Flippe-floppe-flye:

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/04/06/important-alert-treasury-coopted-fed/

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

Gold has recovered strongly since the COVID-19 induced selloff a few weeks ago.
Below charts the genesis of this long-term bull market for gold, although it really only got "legs" last June when it hurdled over some 5 years of resistance.


By way of comparison with POG's post-GFC dip back in 2008, just over a year later gold climbed over $500, and continued another $700 higher over the next 2 years.  Should gold replicate a similar percentage increase over the next 2-3 years, then $3500 is a realistic high.


----------



## rederob

Take care when you read headlines that seem a bit out of kilter with what is going on.
I was surprised when I read this today:
*"Gold Price Loses Ground After Topping $US1,700"*​
In fact it was the COMEX *June futures* being referred to, and prices there topped out over $1740.  
The takeaway for us however is that prices well over $1700 are being negotiated, and that's good to know.


----------



## rederob

Almost due for a breakout?


Periods of consolidation leading to new highs have been running from 6-8 weeks.  
We are presently at the front end of that period.
If the pattern repeats then by early May we will see a spike to about $1800 before a consolidatory pullback in the mid $1700s.
My view at present is that fear factor which plummetted gold in mid-March is not likely to repeat unless COVID-19 throws a curve ball and wave 2 rolls over early. In that light, I expect the trading range to narrow (except for the next spike north).


----------



## ducati916

There is a new analysis from Sunshine Profits:

https://www.barchart.com/story/futu.../4673978/is-that-golds-inverse-hs-or-reversal

It's pretty long, so I've just added the link.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> Almost due for a breakout?



Nearly there:


Breaking the March peak of $1703 is just $20 away, so should not be too hard from here.
We have to go back to December 2012 to see similar prices.


----------



## rederob

Last Friday saw spot gold *close *at a 12 year high.  
Tonight has a plus$1700 close well in sight.
Below I have noted that there has been a closing of the AUD:USD ratio recently, as the AUD creeps a little higher.


I am going to punt on a chance the AUD will further strengthen against the USD due to our strong exposure to China which is on the mend, while the USA is not even close to re-opening its economy.


----------



## rederob

Gold set a 12 year record high price overnight as it continues its bull run.
Had you read the link at @ducati916's post of last Thursday, you would have seen it saying this about POG's rising trend:* "We have very little trust in this formation."  *His link had 7 charts showing why gold was destined to fall in the immediate term.
It did not happen.
The chart below is a continuation of the two I posted immediately above, but focuses on only the last month's price action (15-minute bars):



On 3 April @ducati916 posted one of the least useful contributions I have seen in this thread, and we exchanged many posts.  In one he suggested:







ducati916 said:


> Silver is sending a warning that all is not well in this move higher for Gold



I will show below that this was not true:


The mistake @ducati916 continues to make is in not appreciating that divergence affects the strength of an otherwise strongly positive gold:silver correlation.
It's also important to make logical statements, and @ducati916 does not always do that.  For example:


ducati916 said:


> 2. Your argument above is essentially the chart posted by myself (from a 3'rd party) is wrong. Well there are actually two arguments there:
> (a) That Gold will fall; and/or
> (b) Silver will rise.​



Well, *no*.
Both can rise, and that's where we are right now.
The difference is that silver remains about $3.50/oz below its Feb 20 peak this year, while gold is at a 12 year high.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Gold set a 12 year record high price overnight as it continues its bull run.
> Had you read the link at @ducati916's post of last Thursday, you would have seen it saying this about POG's rising trend:* "We have very little trust in this formation."  *His link had 7 charts showing why gold was destined to fall in the immediate term.
> It did not happen.
> 
> 2. The chart below is a continuation of the two I posted immediately above, but focuses on only the last month's price action (15-minute bars):
> 
> 
> 
> 3. On 3 April @ducati916 posted one of the least useful contributions I have seen in this thread, and we exchanged many posts.  In one he suggested:I will show below that this was not true:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 4. The mistake @ducati916 continues to make is in not appreciating that divergence affects the strength of an otherwise strongly positive gold:silver correlation.
> It's also important to make logical statements, and @ducati916 does not always do that.  For example:
> 
> 5. Well, *no*.
> Both can rise, and that's where we are right now.
> The difference is that silver remains about $3.50/oz below its Feb 20 peak this year, while gold is at a 12 year high.




1. I provided that link for 2 reasons: (i) you asked for updates and (ii) to provide an alternative viewpoint.

2. Gold compared to currency fluctuations adds what to the argument?

3. And your chart is incorrect in relation to the discussion: viz. that Silver is not confirming the move in Gold. Why is that important, simply because for the last 40+yrs, Silver has confirmed the move.




You simply want to present a distorted view of the position. You are not really interested in actually discussing why this divergence might be happening.

4. Clearly Gold and Silver are not currently correlated. They were. They are not currently. Whether that correlation again reasserts itself, we shall see. The correlation can reassert itself if: (a) gold falls, or silver rises (faster) than gold. If they both rise at the same % rate, their divergence will be maintained.

5. See (4) above.

So my questions are:

With conditions absolutely perfect for gold, rising debt (credit expansion by the Fed) which you state to be the primary driver of a rising gold price and a catalyst that has created widespread uncertainty, is gold moving so slowly and is still below its all time high?

Why is silver divergent?

What happens to gold if yields start to rise, reflecting the inflation that you maintain is being (or going to be) created by the Central Banks? My position being that gold is more tightly correlated to the 30yr Bond than it is to your chart analysis skills.




Is gold currently still being driven by the secular trend that started +/- in 2002, or, is the secular trend ending?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> With conditions absolutely perfect for gold, rising debt (credit expansion by the Fed) which you state to be the primary driver of a rising gold price and a catalyst that has created widespread uncertainty, is gold moving so slowly and is still below its all time high?



Conditions were good for gold last year.
They are just a lot better now.
Debt of itself is not a catalyst for gold to rise (except in response to costs of production) as there is always debt.  It's how debt sits with regard to economic sentiment that affects its trajectory.
As to uncertainty, that is presently due to what COVID-19 has spread globally.
As to gold's all time high, it took a very long time to reach - and 3 years after the GFC. 
POG has risen over $350 in less than year, which does not conform to your idea that sees "gold moving so slowly" that it won't be in reach of a new high in the next 12 months.  I see it as possible, but more likely much later in 2021.


----------



## finicky

Nordesmic on 12 April. Sounds more upbeat than usual.
Thinks USD Gold "on the cusp of a new phase".
Compares USD Gold's action to the rapid rebound during the 2008 Lehman crisis.
Includes comments about the AUD rallying against USD, thinks AUD strength temporary, bad news not out yet.
"The Australian gold miners counter-intuitively tend to rally when the USD Gold price strengthens"
"There's going to be a mainstream move to demand for gold products" (incl miners)
You can support for $6/mth on Patreon. Extra material, earlier delivery, requests considered.


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. I provided that link for 2 reasons: (i) you asked for updates and (ii) to provide an alternative viewpoint.
> 
> 2. Gold compared to currency fluctuations adds what to the argument?
> 
> 3. And your chart is incorrect in relation to the discussion: viz. that Silver is not confirming the move in Gold. Why is that important, simply because for the last 40+yrs, Silver has confirmed the move.
> 
> View attachment 102246
> 
> 
> You simply want to present a distorted view of the position. You are not really interested in actually discussing why this divergence might be happening.
> 
> 4. Clearly Gold and Silver are not currently correlated. They were. They are not currently. Whether that correlation again reasserts itself, we shall see. The correlation can reassert itself if: (a) gold falls, or silver rises (faster) than gold. If they both rise at the same % rate, their divergence will be maintained.
> 
> 5. See (4) above.
> 
> So my questions are:
> 
> With conditions absolutely perfect for gold, rising debt (credit expansion by the Fed) which you state to be the primary driver of a rising gold price and a catalyst that has created widespread uncertainty, is gold moving so slowly and is still below its all time high?
> 
> Why is silver divergent?
> 
> What happens to gold if yields start to rise, reflecting the inflation that you maintain is being (or going to be) created by the Central Banks? My position being that gold is more tightly correlated to the 30yr Bond than it is to your chart analysis skills.
> 
> View attachment 102247
> 
> 
> Is gold currently still being driven by the secular trend that started +/- in 2002, or, is the secular trend ending?
> 
> jog on
> duc



I took some time to re-read your comments.
I wondered if anything else warranted comment.
First, you have a knack for poor analysis, and it's not helped by presenting an alternative viewpoint that gets almost everything wrong.
Second, I explain my charts, and sometimes there is a commentary embedded in the chart that makes a different point.
Third, I have no interest in explaining what is happening with silver in this thread, so I have instead shown why some of your points do not stack up.
Fourth, it is absolutely wrong to say gold and silver are not correlated.  They are strongly positively correlated.  However, the strength of the correlation varies and over long periods can give the appearance that their respective trends are not complementary.  With regard to gold and bonds there is a similar correlation.  However, in none of these cases can it be shown that any one drives the other.
Finally, I use charts to show patterns and relationships, and I explain their context and relevance.  You can read what I wrote last Wednesday as an example.


----------



## rederob

Another day and another recent record high:


Below I look at the recent action of gold measured in Australian dollars versus US dollars using only the past month, and base it on the spot gold chart immediately above:


The equity market contradiction is that yesterday our gold producers rocketed higher.  However, they are getting exactly the same returns for their output as they received a month ago.  Go figure .


----------



## finicky

rederob said:


> The equity market contradiction is that yesterday our gold producers rocketed higher. However, they are getting exactly the same returns for their output as they received a month ago. Go figure




Could be what Nordesmic was saying - that our miners are often more sensitive to the USD price than the AUD price as the former is seen as more about a Gold bull than a weak currency. This is mostly what fooled me into getting into Oz gold miners later than I otherwise would've around 2016; I just saw it as a currency anomaly that couldn't be trusted to last.
Also of course we have the international investors/speculators in our gold miners whose interest would perk up when they notice gold performing in USD. Also the mining etfs: GDX, GDXJ. We were in a purely lucky privileged position here for years because we were confronted by our gold miners sustainably making excellent profits and doing acquisitions while North American miners were languishing. Now it's segueing into a 'real' bull market.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> I took some time to re-read your comments.
> 1. I wondered if anything else warranted comment.
> 
> 2. First, you have a knack for poor analysis, and it's not helped by presenting an alternative viewpoint that gets almost everything wrong.
> 
> 3. Second, I explain my charts, and sometimes there is a commentary embedded in the chart that makes a different point.
> 
> 4. (a) Third, I have no interest in explaining what is happening with silver in this thread, (b) so I have instead shown why some of your points do not stack up.
> 
> 5. Fourth, it is absolutely wrong to say gold and silver are not correlated.  They are strongly positively correlated.  However, the strength of the correlation varies and over long periods can give the appearance that their respective trends are not complementary.
> 
> 6. With regard to gold and bonds there is a similar correlation.  However, in none of these cases can it be shown that any one drives the other.
> 
> 7. Finally, I use charts to show patterns and relationships, and I explain their context and relevance.  You can read what I wrote last Wednesday as an example.




1. I'm taking it that as you have not addressed any of the issues raised, that you will not be doing so going forward.

2. In your opinion. Clearly that's all it is, since you decline in (1) to address any of the issues.

3. Accepted. And in general I address your charts where there is an issue to be addressed.

4. (a) Fair enough. (b) Where is that exactly? 

5. Again you simply misquote: I have demonstrated via the chart that over the past 40+yrs, that gold/silver are very closely correlated. What I said was that _currently_ they are not confirming one another (correlation is broken for the moment, maybe it returns).

6. But I have shown it. Further, I have explained the fundamental reason why it is so. I will repeat:

(a) US Treasury securities are considered as the benchmark risk free return. Gold, also has no 'default' risk and in that context (ignoring market risk for the moment) are also a risk free asset.

(b) US Treasury securities provide a return or yield. Gold does not. Hence, as Bonds rise in value and yields drop, they become ever more equivalent to Bonds (both carrying market risk) but at no risk of default (in theory). In reality, only gold has zero default risk.

(c) When in August 1981, 1yr paper yielded 17% and 30yr paper 14.78%. Gold was already well underway into its bear market. The double top occurring in Sept 1980. 




(d) Why? Because you could earn a risk free return of 17% holding 1 yr paper. The correct position was of course to hold 30yr paper. Easy with hindsight. Holding gold, nothing but losses (unless you could trade the wiggles) until circa June 2002.

(e) Why June 2002? Because Greenspan started to aggressively lower rates due to the bear in equities and yields dropped low enough that the risk free return (further exacerbated by 2008) was not as attractive to new investors and gold became correspondingly more attractive.





Which leaves my next question for you: 

What happens to gold if the 30yr starts to rise in yield (fall in nominal price)?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> What I said was that _currently_ they are not confirming one another



I have several times shown through posted charts that this is untrue.
I won't be responding to your other points.
What is happening to gold is wholly consistent with a well-based bull market trend.
I have posted charts which show 2 separate starting points and propose these only as guides to likely price-banded action.  Conformance is not difficult to appreciate.
I will continue to post gold charts here that give my ideas on what I regard as explanatory or probable, and expect they will have the same weight of any crystal ball reading people choose.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. I have several times shown through posted charts that this is untrue.
> 
> 2. I won't be responding to your other points.
> 
> 3. What is happening to gold is wholly consistent with a well-based bull market trend.




1. So here is your chart:




This is your evidence for demonstrating that Silver and Gold are correlated currently and even...that silver is outperforming gold currently.

So here are some more charts in the same time frame:







They are all (in this timeframe) indistinguishable. They are Gold v SLV, XLF, XLY.

This timeframe is meaningless, hence why I discount your chart.

2. Of course you won't.

3. Well I disagree. I think the bull move is extremely weak and suspect, for all the previously stated reasons.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. So here is your chart:
> 
> View attachment 102280
> 
> 
> This is your evidence for demonstrating that Silver and Gold are correlated currently and even...that silver is outperforming gold currently.
> 
> So here are some more charts in the same time frame:
> 
> 
> View attachment 102281
> View attachment 102282
> View attachment 102284
> 
> 
> They are all (in this timeframe) indistinguishable. They are Gold v SLV, XLF, XLY.
> 
> This timeframe is meaningless, hence why I discount your chart.
> 
> 2. Of course you won't.
> 
> 3. Well I disagree. I think the bull move is extremely weak and suspect, for all the previously stated reasons.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Perhaps you can find somewhere that suggests gold increasing by 9% in 2 weeks is "*weak*" given that would be a nice earner for 12 months!
Or should we consider an increase of 36% in 12 months  a better time frame and equally weak?
My definition of "currently" would be *now*, but given we need a time frame to show the trend unfolding in recent days, I have provided the comparative metal's performance for April:




Despite what is evident, you still want to insist that silver is not yet confirming gold's bull market.  
I am not interested in what silver is doing because I cannot see that it is important to gold's bull trend.
However, if we were to use pattern analysis, then in 2 years silver will significantly outshine gold's performance.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Perhaps you can find somewhere that suggests gold increasing by 9% in 2 weeks is "*weak*" given that would be a nice earner for 12 months!
> 
> 2. Or should we consider an increase of 36% in 12 months  a better time frame and equally weak?
> My definition of "currently" would be *now*, but given we need a time frame to show the trend unfolding in recent days, I have provided the comparative metal's performance for April:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 3. Despite what is evident, you still want to insist that silver is not yet confirming gold's bull market.
> I am not interested in what silver is doing because I cannot see that it is important to gold's bull trend.
> However, if we were to use pattern analysis, then in 2 years silver will significantly outshine gold's performance.




1. Given the 'perfect' conditions for gold currently, pandemic, economic contraction, credit expansion and gold isn't even at all time highs. Don't you consider that odd?

2. See above.

3. So here are 2 charts Gold/Silver. Same timeframe: (a) is based on price, (b) is a percentage




So silver 'appears' to be correlated and actually outperforming gold, at least until last couple of weeks.




But on a % basis, badly lagging. That is the trap of looking at short/intermediate time frames with price. Silver is simply not (atm) confirming the move in gold.

Why not?

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Ray Dalio likes gold:


_Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates said in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday that investors would be "pretty crazy to hold bonds" in this period._
_"If you're holding a bond that gives you no interest rate, or a negative interest rate, and they're producing a lot of currency and you're going to receive that, why would you hold that bond?" Dalio said, referring to government bonds._
_Dalio said he liked gold, stocks, and some corporate bonds in the current environment._
_Ray Dalio, who leads Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, said investors would be "crazy" to hold government bonds in the current environment where central banks are printing money and interest rates remain at historic lows.

"If you're holding a bond that gives you no interest rate, or a negative interest rate, and they're producing a lot of currency and you're going to receive that, why would you hold that bond?" Dalio said in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday.

"This period, like the 1930-45 period, is a period in which I think you'd be pretty crazy to hold bonds," he added._

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

1800 is the test. If it breaks through and runs, then the argument is far stronger for a 'bull market'.




jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1800 is the test. If it breaks through and runs, then the argument is far stronger for a 'bull market'.



Well, that is your idea, but I doubt it fits most investors understanding of what a bull market entails.
The genesis of this bull market goes back to 2016 where a long-term market bottom occurred and was followed through to May 2019 with a rolling series of higher lows.  A month later POG broke above a previous high from 5 years ago.  Then 3 months later it had added another 10% to its price, and continued from there to peak almost $200 higher again just over 6 months later.  This bull run has been in play for a long time.
You will only find more confirmations in a Church.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Well, that is your idea, but I doubt it fits most investors understanding of what a bull market entails.
> 
> 2. The genesis of this bull market goes back to 2016 where a long-term market bottom occurred and was followed through to May 2019 with a rolling series of higher lows.  A month later POG broke above a previous high from 5 years ago.  Then 3 months later it had added another 10% to its price, and continued from there to peak almost $200 higher again just over 6 months later.  This bull run has been in play for a long time.
> 
> 3. You will only find more confirmations in a Church.




1. I can accept that.

2. That is your interpretation, not mine.

3. I am an atheist and a chart is agnostic.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

So for Mr Rederob:




_Our Ben,
Who art in heaven,
Hallowed Be-nanke,
Thy auctions come,
Thy Bill’s be done,
In Twos as they are in Sevens,
Give us this day our daily FED,
And forgive us our Treasuries,
As we forgive those that default against us,
And lead us not into recession,
And deliver us from deflation,
For thine is the borrowing, the easing, and the printing,
For ever and ever.
Amen._

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Peter Schiff argues for US hyperinflation continuously in his myriad YouTube videos and that gold, due to the impending hyperinflation will become more valuable by multiples of the current value.

Historically:




The evidence does not support the assertion. This chart is probably a little out of date, there may be some later examples. But you get the gist.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

When the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market in silver, the high price brought out all the sellers, breaking the corner: currently https://www.barchart.com/story/news...gh-thais-with-dwindling-incomes-sell-off-gold

_BANGKOK (AP) — With gold prices rising to a seven-year high, many Thais have been flocking to gold shops to trade in their necklaces, bracelets, rings and gold bars for cash, eager to reap profits during an economic downturn._

_They are unable to carry out their normal practice of quickly reselling the gold abroad because of the greatly reduced number of flights to ship the gold and a shortage of buyers in other countries, who are restricted by lockdown orders and market closures.

Jitti Tangsithpakdi, chairman of the Gold Traders Association and owner of Chin Hua Heng Goldsmith Co, told The Associated Press that more than 90% of recent gold shop customers are sellers.

Many Asians hold gold as savings and investments. In Bangkok, gold shops are clustered in Chinatown, where long lines were stretched even further by social distancing. Jitti said he believes the current wave of sellers mostly are seeking to profit from the high price.

However, some of those waiting said they were selling their gold to get cash to support their families since many have lost their jobs.

Saranya Prasert, a fruit exporter, said the COVID-19 crisis has halted her business and her family is struggling for money. They are selling gold jewelry that they had kept for more than 10 years as savings.
_
What think ye?

jog on
duc


----------



## aus_trader

ducati916 said:


> When the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market in silver, the high price brought out all the sellers, breaking the corner: currently https://www.barchart.com/story/news...gh-thais-with-dwindling-incomes-sell-off-gold
> 
> _BANGKOK (AP) — With gold prices rising to a seven-year high, many Thais have been flocking to gold shops to trade in their necklaces, bracelets, rings and gold bars for cash, eager to reap profits during an economic downturn._
> 
> _They are unable to carry out their normal practice of quickly reselling the gold abroad because of the greatly reduced number of flights to ship the gold and a shortage of buyers in other countries, who are restricted by lockdown orders and market closures._
> 
> _Jitti Tangsithpakdi, chairman of the Gold Traders Association and owner of Chin Hua Heng Goldsmith Co, told The Associated Press that more than 90% of recent gold shop customers are sellers._
> 
> _Many Asians hold gold as savings and investments. In Bangkok, gold shops are clustered in Chinatown, where long lines were stretched even further by social distancing. Jitti said he believes the current wave of sellers mostly are seeking to profit from the high price._
> 
> _However, some of those waiting said they were selling their gold to get cash to support their families since many have lost their jobs._
> 
> _Saranya Prasert, a fruit exporter, said the COVID-19 crisis has halted her business and her family is struggling for money. They are selling gold jewelry that they had kept for more than 10 years as savings._
> 
> What think ye?
> 
> jog on
> duc



Well this kind of explains, why there was a dive in Gold and Silver as the markets tanked. People sold down Gold jewelry and even the family Silver ware to raise cash or in technical terms to ensure liquidity in difficult times.


----------



## ducati916

aus_trader said:


> Well this kind of explains, why there was a dive in Gold and Silver as the markets tanked. People sold down Gold jewelry and even the family Silver ware to raise cash or in technical terms to ensure liquidity in difficult times.




$1800 was (is) a major resistance point on the chart. First tests tend to fail. I'm sure there will be future tests of this level. It is just interesting that holders of physical gold chose this moment to sell. As the article alludes, necessity rather than a chart based level drove the selling, but interesting nonetheless. It does confirm this chart however:




Where small businesses (some of the sellers identified in article) would utilise personal funds to keep their business solvent.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

I was hoping Mr Rederob would become involved in a discussion that involved something else rather than here is my 15 min gold chart. That does not seem to be the case, so...

From earlier in the month:




Now this chap raised the issue of silver.

Why might silver be important? Both silver/gold have historically been used as money. They are both still held to be money equivalents (except by Mr Rederob).

In an inflationary environment (diminishing purchasing power due to credit expansion) then these money equivalents (should) rise in value and can rise even faster if the animal spirits become involved with additional speculation. However in a deflation, where the purchasing power of money falls due to credit destruction, then you would not expect to see the speculative element enter the market.

Currently, the market is pricing deflation.




Only gold has that speculative element. Silver, currently, sees no inflation. The 30yr Bond has the highest duration and is the most sensitive to inflation (expectations). Currently it is not signalling much if any inflation.

The 30yr Bond and other Treasury instruments are also the 'run to safety' trade when uncertainty rules markets. Gold can also fulfil this 'run to safety' trade. So although gold is not rising (currently) on inflationary expectations, it could legitimately be rising on the run to safety.

What happens if the all clear is sounded in the markets to the POG?

If the commodity markets start to signal inflation, then silver is the trade.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> If the commodity markets start to signal inflation, then silver is the trade.



Silver has outperformed gold for the past month, but you refuse to acknowledge this or, instead, indulge in what you seem to think offers meaning.
As this thread is about where gold is heading, not silver, I try to stay focused.
Perhaps you should open a new thread and see who wants to discuss your specific interests.

I post charts that show a range of features and describe their significance, if any.  
In a trending bull market a simple reality is that price action is constrained within "boundaries" or channels.  When this pattern fails then we play a new ball game.

I reckon next week is prime time for picking up good gold producers, given a big dip in POG overnight.  I posted elsewhere on EVN to show the disparity between equity prices and spot gold.  A similar disparity exists across many of our producers and, with luck to date, few have been impacted to any degree by COVID-19 that I am aware.

As a general comment, there will be elements of the US market that latch on to Trump's attempt to reopen States for business over the next week.  I see that as likely to hold gold back in the immediate term.  However, in the longer term it is even better for gold because COVID-19 needs to be under a semblance of control, otherwise it will linger a lot longer.  Modelling data show that each day a nation holds back on a lockdown it adds a week to recovery.  The problem in the USA is that there are no border controls and this virus will keep multiplying when States let their guard down.


----------



## aus_trader

Silver is considered more of a speculative play as it is also considered an industrial metal as well as an investment vehicle. Gold is the primary gauge of precious metal investing sentiment. But I have noticed a theme in the past that may play out once again. That is Silver will follow Gold price with a lag. i.e. plays catch up.

Like rob, I like the leveraged plays of mining companies that are exposed to Silver and Gold. Plenty of Gold stocks on the ASX and all are rallying with POG at the moment except a few that are left behind or smashed like DCN 

However, you have to search under every rock to find a good Silver play on the ASX. I have done that over the years and there are a few stocks with base metal mining exposure that has a Silver exposure but almost no pure Silver mining plays, except just a couple. Probably the pick of the bunch is
Silver Mines Limited (*SVL*) which has the largest undeveloped Silver deposit called 'Paris' which I have discussed in the past in Speculative Stock Portfolio. 

A good pure play Silver stock if searching the entire world would be the Canadian Silver miner First Majestic Silver Corp (*AG*), appropriately with Symbol Ag which is also the code for Silver in the Periodic Table 

These guys will provide leveraged bang for buck if Gold has another multi-year bull market and Silver follows eventually...


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Silver has outperformed gold for the past month, but you refuse to acknowledge this or, instead, indulge in what you seem to think offers meaning.
> As this thread is about where gold is heading, not silver, I try to stay focused.
> Perhaps you should open a new thread and see who wants to discuss your specific interests.
> 
> 2. I post charts that show a range of features and describe their significance, if any.
> In a trending bull market a simple reality is that price action is constrained within "boundaries" or channels.  When this pattern fails then we play a new ball game.
> 
> 3. I reckon next week is prime time for picking up good gold producers, given a big dip in POG overnight.  I posted elsewhere on EVN to show the disparity between equity prices and spot gold.  A similar disparity exists across many of our producers and, with luck to date, few have been impacted to any degree by COVID-19 that I am aware.
> 
> 4. As a general comment, there will be elements of the US market that latch on to Trump's attempt to reopen States for business over the next week.  I see that as likely to hold gold back in the immediate term.  However, in the longer term it is even better for gold because COVID-19 needs to be under a semblance of control, otherwise it will linger a lot longer.  Modelling data show that each day a nation holds back on a lockdown it adds a week to recovery.  The problem in the USA is that there are no border controls and this virus will keep multiplying when States let their guard down.




1. So here is Gold as against Silver in the last month:




Silver (-15%) +/-
Gold +11% +/-

2. Which is fine. However (it is interesting to me) what drives that movement? The question is cyclical or secular? Gold is having a cyclical moment, but secularly, the bull is over, at least as far as commodities and silver indicate.

3. Which if gold truly is in a new (or continuing) bull market, should do well. If gold is not, then they will be crushed as gold falls/collapses (my opinion).

4. If the US reopens, the fear trade is pretty much over. That is a negative for gold, not a positive. 

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

aus_trader said:


> 1. Silver is considered more of a speculative play as it is also considered an industrial metal as well as an investment vehicle. Gold is the primary gauge of precious metal investing sentiment. But I have noticed a theme in the past that may play out once again. That is Silver will follow Gold price with a lag. i.e. plays catch up.
> 
> 2. Like rob, I like the leveraged plays of mining companies that are exposed to Silver and Gold. Plenty of Gold stocks on the ASX and all are rallying with POG at the moment except a few that are left behind or smashed like DCN
> 
> 3. However, you have to search under every rock to find a good Silver play on the ASX. I have done that over the years and there are a few stocks with base metal mining exposure that has a Silver exposure but almost no pure Silver mining plays, except just a couple. Probably the pick of the bunch is Silver Mines Limited (*SVL*) which has the largest undeveloped Silver deposit called 'Paris' which I have discussed in the past in Speculative Stock Portfolio.
> 
> 4. A good pure play Silver stock if searching the entire world would be the Canadian Silver miner First Majestic Silver Corp (*AG*), appropriately with Symbol Ag which is also the code for Silver in the Periodic Table
> 
> 5. These guys will provide leveraged bang for buck if Gold has another multi-year bull market and Silver follows eventually...




1. Agreed re. industrial/speculative. As to lagging gold:

(a) In the 1970 Silver leads gold;
(b) In 1983 Silver lagged;
(c) Lagged 2008;
(d) Currently lagging (significantly)




In 2008, there was a lag, but the lag currently would concern me as it is materially different type of lagging.

3. Paradoxically, the best plays are the most leveraged (debt) companies. There is a definite fundamental reason for this, but it is a bit long winded.

4. I'll have to take your word on that.

5. I don't see any debt on the Balance Sheet (quick look). 

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> So here is Gold as against Silver in the last month:



Except that for a comparison to be valid it needs to index each metal from the exact same starting point, and you did not do that.  Moreover, ETFs are *not *spot prices.  

Choosing a starting point (both time and date) for indexes can significantly affect the ultimate outcomes as if 15 March was chosen instead of the next trading day, then gold would have significantly outperformed silver.


----------



## aus_trader

ducati916 said:


> 1. Agreed re. industrial/speculative. As to lagging gold:
> 
> (a) In the 1970 Silver leads gold;
> (b) In 1983 Silver lagged;
> (c) Lagged 2008;
> (d) Currently lagging (significantly)
> 
> View attachment 102427
> 
> 
> In 2008, there was a lag, but the lag currently would concern me as it is materially different type of lagging.
> 
> 3. Paradoxically, the best plays are the most leveraged (debt) companies. There is a definite fundamental reason for this, but it is a bit long winded.
> 
> 4. I'll have to take your word on that.
> 
> 5. I don't see any debt on the Balance Sheet (quick look).
> 
> jog on
> duc



Good chart, I remember the Silver lag in GFC quite well. At the moment it is also lagging by a fair bit and the USD Gold/Silver Ratio is quite high historically speaking:

All in USD -> Gold Price / Silver Price = 1694/15.34 = 110.4

Live calculation using spot prices, not Google search.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. (a) Except that for a comparison to be valid it needs to index each metal from the exact same starting point, and you did not do that.  (b) Moreover, ETFs are *not *spot prices.
> 
> 2. Choosing a starting point (both time and date) for indexes can significantly affect the ultimate outcomes as if 15 March was chosen instead of the next trading day, then gold would have significantly outperformed silver.




1. (b) Agreed, ETFs are not spot prices, which is why I added the +/-, to demonstrate that these are not exact prices. So you are telling me that the discrepancy is so great that from spot prices that they are materially different? (a) That is true and although on that basis Silver has outperformed Gold by say 2%+/-, the fact still remains that Silver is (-15%) +/- and Gold is +11% +/-

2. Your argument is simply an argument to 'win an argument'. If you look at the big picture, silver is currently underperforming gold. That is a fact. That fact is only important because silver, historically, has not lagged this much for this long. That is a material difference (in my opinion) and I am curious as to why that might be the case. The spread is currently +/- 26%. 

Mr AusTrader mentioned the ratio: You can see when they were both money, their ratio was largely constant. The tiny blips would have been new unexpected supply from newly discovered lands etc.




We have to go back to July-December 1941 = 99.76 ratio (high spike on chart) to find an equivalent value. That was Pearl Harbour territory. Then we have June-July 1991 = 91.04 ratio.

January-June 2009 ratio = 69.85, falling to 42.01 during January-June 2011. 

So Mr Rederob, how would you explain the 2009-2011 period? Which from an economic perspective, is very similar: ie. rapidly falling GDP, fast increasing unemployment, debt destruction, etc. This current period is actually even accelerated over the 2008-2009 period as the quarantine of the world happened almost overnight (yes, I exaggerate somewhat).

Yet, Silver, is lagging by (-26%) and showing no real signs of stirring currently.

Is it an issue? 
If not, why not?

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

aus_trader said:


> 1. Good chart, I remember the Silver lag in GFC quite well. At the moment it is also lagging by a fair bit and the USD Gold/Silver Ratio is quite high historically speaking:
> 
> 2. All in USD -> Gold Price / Silver Price = 1694/15.34 = 110.4
> 
> 3. Live calculation using spot prices, not Google search.




1. I don't really remember paying too much attention to the time lag as an issue at that time. This suggests to me that the time lag probably wasn't that significant. However, if it was, I stand to be corrected. Are we talking (for the lag) in days, weeks or months? 

2. So it is (still) expanding. My chart above has it at 97.29. 

3. Indeed, Mr Rederob does not accept ETF prices as this clearly leads to significant errors. My bad. But you have rectified that issue for him.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

So trying to summarise in a few lines:
Please correct me when wrong

Mr Ducati believes that we are seeing a relative peak gold due to anxiety as demonstrated by silver ratio divergence
POG will fall as soon as markets stabilise as we are not in a secular gold bull, just circumstantial fear based run
Whereas Rob sees us in a secular bull as with the dumping of free money everywhere,  money value decreases and we are headed to inflation

Not sure where i stand, been waiting for inflation since GFC, and except for rates and house prices..till now, still looking
The West is deflationary due to age pyramid, however strongly  i would like gold to go high..i am exposed: : my thinking head will go with Mr Duc who has more knowledge than I.
For what ii is worth in term of short term indicator:
Both my systems have had a few buys last week and on Monday, and a high proportion of these are silver and gold miners.hopefully a sign of short term strength


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 1. (b) Agreed, ETFs are not spot prices, which is why I added the +/-, to demonstrate that these are not exact prices. So you are telling me that the discrepancy is so great that from spot prices that they are materially different? (a) That is true and although on that basis Silver has outperformed Gold by say 2%+/-, the fact still remains that Silver is (-15%) +/- and Gold is +11% +/-



Your analysis is unsound and I have tried to explain why many times.
Below are 2 charts, essentially the same, except the time periods differ by 1 week:


In the above chart silver clearly outperforms gold to the tune of 13 percentage points.
Below shows an an almost complete reversal and gold outperforms by 12 percentage points:


I hope the above is clear.
If you were trading pairs then the above differences based on starting dates would require you to adopt contrary positions in each trade to come out ahead.  
This leads to your second point where you say:







ducati916 said:


> 2. Your argument is simply an argument to 'win an argument'. If you look at the big picture, silver is currently underperforming gold. That is a fact.



What you have not grasped is that is that depending on how far back we go we can get a different picture.  For example, below is the monthly chart comparing the metals since 2003 and it shows that *silver* *has outperformed*: 
	

		
			
		

		
	



What is truly stunning about the above chart is that had you purchased silver in early 2003 it would still be giving you a higher percentage gain today than if you had bought gold.
I could ask if 17 years is the "big picture" but you will probably find another excuse for clumsy analysis.

I have no interest in explaining the relative performance of gold and silver recently.  Apart from on 16 March their relative movements have varied only marginally since the virus took hold.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> Your analysis is unsound and I have tried to explain why many times.
> Below are 2 charts, essentially the same, except the time periods differ by 1 week:
> 
> 
> In the above chart silver clearly outperforms gold to the tune of 13 percentage points.
> Below shows an an almost complete reversal and gold outperforms by 12 percentage points:
> 
> 
> I hope the above is clear.
> If you were trading pairs then the above differences based on starting dates would require you to adopt contrary positions in each trade to come out ahead.
> This leads to your second point where you say:What you have not grasped is that is that depending on how far back we go we can get a different picture.  For example, below is the monthly chart comparing the metals since 2003 and it shows that *silver* *has outperformed*:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What is truly stunning about the above chart is that had you purchased silver in early 2003 it would still be giving you a higher percentage gain today than if you had bought gold.
> I could ask if 17 years is the "big picture" but you will probably find another excuse for clumsy analysis.
> 
> I have no interest in explaining the relative performance of gold and silver recently.  Apart from on 16 March their relative movements have varied only marginally since the virus took hold.



Apologies for a data error in the for the comparison I posted above in the chart that related to the period from 2003.  This chart did not load the silver prices prior to 2006 for some reason, and I thought the data was hidden below the *Goldprice* logo: it was not.
The chart below uses the same start date, but I ended the period at a point where each metal had achieved roughly the same price increase over 15 years.
	

		
			
		

		
	



The point I am trying to stress here is how important buying and selling dates are to profits, which I thought would be obvious.
On Friday gold closed well below its recent high. If you think it won't reclaim that high, then don't use it as your "starting point."
I think it will, and tomorrow will add some gold shares as I don't trade futures or physicals.

With regard to @qldfrog's summation, I view a trend that has remained firmly in place over several years to be a good basis for thinking gold will continue to rise because the ingredients that drove it into the trend have intensified.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. Your analysis is unsound and I have tried to explain why many times.
> 
> 2. Below are 2 charts, essentially the same, except the time periods differ by 1 week:
> 
> 
> In the above chart silver clearly outperforms gold to the tune of 13 percentage points.
> Below shows an an almost complete reversal and gold outperforms by 12 percentage points:
> 
> 
> I hope the above is clear.
> 
> 3. If you were trading pairs then the above differences based on starting dates would require you to adopt contrary positions in each trade to come out ahead.
> 
> 4. This leads to your second point where you say:What you have not grasped is that is that depending on how far back we go we can get a different picture.  For example, below is the monthly chart comparing the metals since 2003 and it shows that *silver* *has outperformed*:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 5. What is truly stunning about the above chart is that had you purchased silver in early 2003 it would still be giving you a higher percentage gain today than if you had bought gold.
> 
> 6. I could ask if 17 years is the "big picture" but you will probably find another excuse for clumsy analysis.
> 
> 7. I have no interest in explaining the relative performance of gold and silver recently.  Apart from on 16 March their relative movements have varied only marginally since the virus took hold.




1. And as many times as you repeat the same argument, you remain incorrect.

2. Your two initial charts, chart the the short term fluctuations, (which we could call micro) and which may interest day-traders, but for a macro analysis, are irrelevant. We are talking macro because you have called this a new 'bull market'. In other words, you are making a secular call. As am I, in that I'm calling this a cyclical rally in a continuing bear market, which is secular. Therefore fluctuations over the last two weeks are meaningless, unless they could confirm something. That they flippe-floppe, just evidences that they are fluctuations in a larger trend.

3. Incorrect. Pairs trades are predicated on the dominant spread. Short term fluctuations allow entry points. So if I was trading that the spread would narrow, I would be long silver, short gold. I could use the wider spread of gold/silver to open the trade. If I thought the spread would expand, I would be long gold, short silver and I would use the expanded spread of silver/gold to open the trade.

4. I agree that cherry picking dates can distort reality, hence why I go back as far as possible. The fact remains that Gold is currently outperforming Silver. Look at the ratio chart...is there any doubt? 

5. So your argument is: if you bought silver at (almost) its absolutely lowest point in history, you would still be showing a profit: yes, correct. Your point is what exactly?




6. So if we bought gold in 2003 and held it today, we would also show a profit:




I think, just looking at the two charts, gold is probably the one I would like to hold mostest, even though your position is that silver has outperformed! LOL.

7. Of course you don't. I always offer, but I realise that I will never actually be taken up on that offer by yourself.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> 2. Your two initial charts, chart the the short term fluctuations, (which we could call micro) and which may interest day-traders, but for a macro analysis, are irrelevant.



I charted how over a selected period of 15 years silver mostly outperformed gold.  That was a "big picture."  These pictures vary over different timeframes. 
I showed how varying a starting point by just one week can be the significant determinant of a dominant outcome in respect of gold or silver.  This occurs when relative price movements are divergent despite the pairs always moving in the same direction during that period.
I don't share your view that a "micro trend" means the same as a consistent trend over a month.
The point to most investing (or trading I suppose) is to choose to place your money on what gives the better outcome over your selected time horizon.  The indexed price charts I have presented above demonstrate the relative importance of timing on the investment product selected.
I don't "argue" these points as they seem self evident.


----------



## ducati916

So what are the commercials up to?







Selling both, but selling gold more heavily. Even on the 'dip' in silver, Commercials remained selling. That is somewhat unusual, normally Commercials buy the dips to support price, but not this time. Without the Commercials buying silver, silver (my guess) will continue to struggle to move higher. You could argue that although they didn't buy silver, they also sold it less aggressively (except for that single dark bar) which indicates heavy selling on the rally higher.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

This chap is interesting as he still uses oil as an indicator for gold:

_Algo Trading System Gold Report For 04/20/2020_
_
Based on ongoing analysis of the Gold market, it is clear that no single indicator, pattern or calculation accurately predicts the future market movement 100% of the time.However, when certain indicators and algorithmic strategies for the Gold market are employed and measured cumulatively, a more reliable overall market bias can be established.The net result of each of the indicators and algos specifically designed for Gold are summarized below.


For the most recent close for front month Crude Oil, a reverse moving average summation is showing a bullish bias.

The reverse momentum indicator for Crude Oil is showing a bullish bias.

The compiled RSI algo indicator is showing a bearish bias.

Based on 9 algo trading strategies developed with the Strategy Factory methodology, the current aggregate strategy status score is +3.00, which indicates an overall bullish bias.

The aggregate stochastic algo indicator is showing a bullish bias.


Overall, the current algo based bias for Gold is BULLISH.


The algorithms used to establish the bias use historical data, and do not anticipate any news related price shocks.The algos are all short term swing trading strategies, with trade duration of a few days to a few weeks. All strategies have a profitable hypothetical backtest over the past 8-10 years. Algo indicators are standard indicators, computed over a wide range of input values.
_
jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

So some further thoughts:

_The aggressive sell-off in crude oil hasn’t helped gold. The Russian central bank has been a strong buyer of gold in recent years. That buying has now stopped, and depending on how long it takes before crude oil recovers, we could potentially see Russia become a net-seller. After all, they will have to cover the shortfall of oil slumping below their budget break-even, which is somewhere close to $40/b.

Silver’s complete collapse to an 11-year low in March drove its relative value to gold down by more than 50% below the five-year average. A combination of inadequate liquidity to withstand the aggressive dash-for-cash phenomenon and its correlation to economic growth are helping drive the steep loss. Once the market stabilises, we see the potential for a strong recovery with traders focusing on its relative cheapness to gold. 
_
They don't mention (if the Russians do sell-off gold) what impact that would have on the gold/silver ratio. As to silver lacking 'liquidity', sounds dubious, rather silver at the open of 2020 had no profits to offset losses in other markets, unlike gold which had some profits to take.




Mr Rederob's silver is outperforming argument looks thin on this chart.

_Gold’s failure to rally as COVID-19 spread and economic uncertainty rose has brought back memories of 2008. During the early part of the GFC, all assets were sold as investors deleveraged to realise cash or pay for losses elsewhere. In the early weeks of the crisis, gold suffered a 27% sell-off to $725/oz before beginning an ascent which eventually took it to $1920/oz.

The rally started in gold mining stocks before moving to gold and it took another few months before the stock market finally bottomed out. With this in mind, we are keeping a close eye on gold mining companies through the Vaneck Major Gold Miners ETF (Ticker: GDX:arcx). We also have to keep in mind that the cost of fuel, which accounts for 20% of mining costs, has collapsed. Gold miners have therefore, at least for now, not suffered the hit that the drop in gold would otherwise imply.
_
Just how long was this lag to move after 2008? This seems to be an important point. 

Gold to Yields:




Have to watch those Bonds.

jog on
duc


----------



## aus_trader

Good point. If GFC was any guide, there is a sell off in Gold and Silver before a sustained rally. Like qldfrog I also have a small exposure because I believe the flight to hard assets and to safety and global QE's will have a +ve bias on Gold/Silver than the other argument about everything deflation scenario.

I also emphasise the advantageous scenario the miners are in right now. As shown by ducati916 commodity performance % chart, miners are able to increase their margins substantially due to lower mining costs due to depressed Oil prices while maintaining the high sale prices due to relatively high spot Gold/Silver.

Aussie miners have one more advantage due to depressed Au$, because they can sell their cheaply mined commodities at higher US$ spot prices to the world markets. So in the case of Gold, Aussie miners are looking at spot prices of around Au$2600 per Oz, even if they spend half of that amount in Au$ to pull the stuff out of the ground with cheap fuel it still looks rosy in terms of profit margins, Yum !


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> So some further thoughts:
> 
> _The aggressive sell-off in crude oil hasn’t helped gold. The Russian central bank has been a strong buyer of gold in recent years. That buying has now stopped, and depending on how long it takes before crude oil recovers, we could potentially see Russia become a net-seller. After all, they will have to cover the shortfall of oil slumping below their budget break-even, which is somewhere close to $40/b._
> 
> _Silver’s complete collapse to an 11-year low in March drove its relative value to gold down by more than 50% below the five-year average. A combination of inadequate liquidity to withstand the aggressive dash-for-cash phenomenon and its correlation to economic growth are helping drive the steep loss. Once the market stabilises, we see the potential for a strong recovery with traders focusing on its relative cheapness to gold. _
> 
> They don't mention (if the Russians do sell-off gold) what impact that would have on the gold/silver ratio. As to silver lacking 'liquidity', sounds dubious, rather silver at the open of 2020 had no profits to offset losses in other markets, unlike gold which had some profits to take.
> 
> View attachment 102454
> 
> 
> Mr Rederob's silver is outperforming argument looks thin on this chart.
> 
> _Gold’s failure to rally as COVID-19 spread and economic uncertainty rose has brought back memories of 2008. During the early part of the GFC, all assets were sold as investors deleveraged to realise cash or pay for losses elsewhere. In the early weeks of the crisis, gold suffered a 27% sell-off to $725/oz before beginning an ascent which eventually took it to $1920/oz._
> 
> _The rally started in gold mining stocks before moving to gold and it took another few months before the stock market finally bottomed out. With this in mind, we are keeping a close eye on gold mining companies through the Vaneck Major Gold Miners ETF (Ticker: GDX:arcx). We also have to keep in mind that the cost of fuel, which accounts for 20% of mining costs, has collapsed. Gold miners have therefore, at least for now, not suffered the hit that the drop in gold would otherwise imply._
> 
> Just how long was this lag to move after 2008? This seems to be an important point.
> 
> Gold to Yields:
> 
> View attachment 102455
> 
> 
> Have to watch those Bonds.
> 
> jog on
> duc



You have borrowed from Ole Hansen's copypasted commentary and charts which are almost 3 weeks old, and gold, for example has increased over 10% this year: his chart shows it in negative territory. 
The commentary you lifted from Seaspray was a week old and neglected to notice that gold had increased by some $300 over the 3 weeks prior to their posting.
The point I have  made about silver many times is that in the past *month *it has outperformed gold, so your comments about my analysis are not sound.
With regard to gold's post GFC performance in 2008, a chart was linked here.  About the only similarity I would give credence to would be the accumulation of debt which took years to get under control.
A point to note: Over a year before Lehman's collapse in September 2008 gold began a parabolic rise, adding over 50% in 7 months.  Were gold to have emulated that in the present bull run (including through the post-COVID-19 period) then POG would already have claimed a plus $2000 peak.  I see $2000 as a staging point to nearer $3000 over the next 3 years.


----------



## aus_trader

rederob said:


> I see $2000 as a staging point to nearer $3000 over the next 3 years.



Yeah ! Go Gold to all time high's.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. You have borrowed from Ole Hansen's copypasted commentary and charts which are almost 3 weeks old, and gold, for example has increased over 10% this year: his chart shows it in negative territory.
> 
> 
> 2. The commentary you lifted from Seaspray was a week old and neglected to notice that gold had increased by some $300 over the 3 weeks prior to their posting.
> 
> 3. The point I have  made about silver many times is that in the past *month *it has outperformed gold, so your comments about my analysis are not sound.
> 
> 4. With regard to gold's post GFC performance in 2008, a chart was linked here.  About the only similarity I would give credence to would be the accumulation of debt which took years to get under control.
> 
> 5. A point to note: Over a year before Lehman's collapse in September 2008 gold began a parabolic rise, adding over 50% in 7 months.  Were gold to have emulated that in the present bull run (including through the post-COVID-19 period) then POG would already have claimed a plus $2000 peak.  I see $2000 as a staging point to nearer $3000 over the next 3 years.




1. Yes I have. Yes they are. The reason: because the discussion was in relation to the time lag incurred in 2008. This snippet addressed that time lag, which I found interesting. Clearly you did not. 

2. Correct. I'm sure people reading the thread are capable of looking up the current price.

3. So:





(a) We see that silver has yet to exceed its September 2019 and February 2020 highs.
(b) We see that gold has.
(c) We see that on the last indicated price, silver declined 1.84% and gold declined 2.15%

OMG! Mr Rederob, you are correct, silver outperformed gold.

4. If I read that correctly, you are saying the only similarity to 2008 is the accumulation of debt. No other references or similarities to 2008 are currently present. Is that a fair summary?

5. Correct. In September 2007, gold took off to the upside as did silver. What was the reason for that?




jog on
duc


----------



## Rosscoe62

https://www.barchart.com/story/futu...k-low-on-plans-to-reopen-the-us-from-lockdown

Time to snap up more selective gold companies whilst the “Futures” -  take a pause!


----------



## BlindSquirrel

on the weekly chart, gold looking decidedly "cuppy" I'm looking for a decent handle then it's on for young and old!



Just keeping it simple...


----------



## rederob

By June, on trend, I anticipate POG will have consolidated above $1700.
Here's how we stand today:



I see a lot of competition for money in the equity markets as COVID-19 lockdowns dissipate as the year draws on.  I won't be surprised to see substitution effects from gold hold holders channeling profits into equities which will, potentially, offer stronger percentage gains in the short term.
However, I regard these as "ratcheting" effects which will allow gold to consolidate rather than collapse.
That's the extent of my thinking on future price moves.


----------



## ducati916

So an update:






_We zoomed in to the 2-hour chart to show you something specific that happened in the last few days and to provide the likely explanation for it._

_Namely, the miners started to show odd strength relative to both: GLD and SPY, and we marked it with a green rectangle._

_The relative strength started in the final part of the previous week, when the GDXJ approached the $36 level. Instead of falling further, just like GLD did or at least like the SPY did on Tuesday the GDXJ stayed above it._

_The gold trading tip for today would be always question such situations before taking them at face value. Why would that be the case? What factor could have been strong enough to trigger such strength? Or maybe in the absence of such a factor was the mining stock sector really strong enough to withstand the powerful bearish forces in the form of declining GLD and SPY?_

_There is a good reason for the miners strength. Its the $36 price level itself. Or, more precisely, the strong support that it provides._

_This is the price level from which junior miners rallied in early March.

This is the price level at which juniors reversed on an intraday basis on March 9th.

This is the price level that stopped the decline on March 10th.

And this is the price level that once broken on March 11th triggered waterfall selling that quickly took the GDXJ below $20._

_This is also the levels that stopped the late-March rally, and the level that initially served as resistance on April 9th._

_It also served as support after the initial April 15th decline._

_Given that this price level worked as both: support and resistance so many times, is it really surprising that without a major breakdown back below the previous 2020 highs in the GLD ETF, this level is holding strong?_

_Its absolutely normal. Lets not overestimate this supports importance, though. This level doesnt invalidate the bearish gold price forecast, it only changes its shape a bit. Instead of declining just like GLD, the GDXJ is taking a breather above $36, but once GLD moves decisively lower, the GDXJ would be likely to break below this level, and slide profoundly catching up with the pace of the slide._

_Please note what happened on April 9th and April 13th. The miners first declined (about $2) based on the resistance, but once they finally broke above the $36 level, they soared until topping almost $6 higher. Whats happening now? The GDXJ moved higher first (about $2) and as soon as it gets the bearish lead from gold, its likely to catch up, by breaking below the $36 level, and sliding much further._

_The very same chart features a specific self-similarity suggesting that the junior miners are likely to get this kind of bearish kick shortly. Not only is the current situation in the GDXJ itself very similar to what happened in mid-March, right before the slide, and right before the breakdown below $36 its also the case with the GLD ETF._

_The GLD is moving back and forth around its blue moving average, while the RSI indicator (note: everything on the chart is based on the 2-hour candlesticks, not the daily candlesticks) is moving around the 50 level._

_The similarity in each ETF on a stand-alone basis might just raise an eyebrow, but the fact that both similarities aligned at the same time along with a breakdown in the general stock market and rallying USD Index should make ones both eyes wide open._

_The next big move for the precious metals market is likely to be down, and its likely to be really significant._

_Thank you for reading todays free analysis. Its full version includes details of our currently open position as well as targets of the upcoming sizable moves in gold, silver and the miners. We encourage you to sign up for our free gold newsletter as soon as you do, you'll get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts and you can read the full version of the above analysis right away. Sign up for our free gold newsletter today!


Thank you.


Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager
_
jog on
duc
_
_


----------



## aus_trader

I am not much of a chartist and I agree with rederob, that the starting point makes a huge difference to the relative performance of two instruments. But I saw the Gold and Silver performance displayed on a website amongst other commodities and currencies, so decided to post it below:


----------



## Rosscoe62

Big day for my two ASX African gold plays -

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=PRU.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=WAF.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100


----------



## rederob

Rosscoe62 said:


> Big day for my two ASX African gold plays -
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=PRU.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=WAF.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100



Well done.


aus_trader said:


> I am not much of a chartist and I agree with rederob, that the starting point makes a huge difference to the relative performance of two instruments. But I saw the Gold and Silver performance displayed on a website amongst other commodities and currencies, so decided to post it below:
> View attachment 102572



So the below chart starts at 20 June 2019 when POG broke above long term resistance, and indexes the price of silver with gold.  I deliberately stopped it at 4 March  2020 as had we not had the benefit of hindsight, then silver looks to have got the jump on gold on a decent uptrend.  Alas, it was very shortlived.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> I see $2000 as a staging point to nearer $3000 over the next 3 years.



Not just me:
*“As economic output contracts sharply, fiscal outlays surge, and central bank balance sheets double, fiat currencies could come under pressure. And investors will aim for gold. Hence, we mark-to-market our forecasts and now project an average gold price of $1,695/oz in 2020 and $2,063/oz in 2021... we have also decided to up our [18 month] gold target from $2,000 to $3,000/oz.” *​I reckon their average price target for 2021 will get revised upwards before this year is out.


----------



## rederob

Why haven't Oz producers reaped big rewards from the past few days' POG increases?


Because while benchmark spot prices have hit recent record highs, AUD gold prices have flat-lined.  Put another way, since XAUAUD peaked on 24 March, by comparison XAUUSD has increased by over 7 percentage points.


----------



## rederob

A weak start to this week:



Commitment of Traders data showed net longs dropped back, so speculative swings are not likely to be as severe in the near term.
Note also that trade volumes have eased right back since late March (March itself was exceptionally high by normal standards). 
Equity markets are bouncing around a fair bit at the moment and, with the expectation of a bounce, there seems little need to rush to park money in gold.


----------



## wayneL

Uh oh

Thin end of the wedge perhaps? Tin foil hats all round?


----------



## aus_trader

wayneL said:


> Uh oh
> 
> Thin end of the wedge perhaps? Tin foil hats all round?




This is one of the problems of mining investments in some foreign nations.

The government just comes around to confiscate the company assets that cost millions/billions of dollars and years of hard work to research, explore and develop...

"Oh you are going to get a return for all the money you sank into the ground all those years are you ? We'll solve that problem, by nationalising the deposit and that mine you just built and filling our pockets with mining revenue  You can just piss off now empty handed with a huge hole burnt in your pocket  "

I think this is one of the reasons why Australia and Canada are considered prime real estate to explore and build mines in. Foreign companies pour in billions even though the cost of doing business e.g. labour costs are high. They'd rather get some return on their billions invested than investing in a country where the asset will be stolen once productive and profitable.


----------



## rederob

Many looking at gold prices think it has been a stellar performer over the year.  But in reality our All Ords and the Dow Jones tracked it relatively closely until pandemonium broke out in mid-February and global equity markets reacted to the effects of what ultimately came to be national lockdowns.


The issue to resolve is where do things go from here?
My sense is that in the near term equity markets will perform relatively well, and the POG will hover between $1680 and $1750.
As markets try to return to normal we will get a better idea of who the winners were, and vice versa. 
As the dust settles over equity markets, investors will come to realise that massive debt burdens will need to be unwound before overall  profitability returns. 
I therefore see the second half of 2020 being exceptionally strong for gold prices.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. As the dust settles over equity markets, investors will come to realise that massive debt burdens will need to be unwound before overall  profitability returns.
> 
> 2. I therefore see the second half of 2020 being exceptionally strong for gold prices.




1. That you mentioned 'equity markets', I am taking that to mean debt burdens held by listed companies. You seem to be implying that the cost of capital (debt) is somehow going to impede profitability? With the cost of debt at historical lows, how do you come to that conclusion? To support that conclusion, really you are stating that demand will remain at or close to current levels. This could be due to the massive spike in unemployment. So potentially, companies profitability could be impacted.

Zero consumer spending however is not inflationary, it is deflationary. Companies declaring bankruptcy is deflationary.  Gold does not do well in a deflationary environment. 

Last week's COT:






Still no Commercial support for either. Gold went pretty much nowhere this week. This rather suggests that this week's COT will show a similar picture to last week's.

jog on
duc


----------



## Dona Ferentes

wayneL said:


> Uh oh
> 
> Thin end of the wedge perhaps? Tin foil hats all round?




and, a report the Chinese partners in Porgera aren't too pleased
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...minster-over-gold-mine/12196660?section=world



> ABC has obtained a copy of a letter sent this week to the Prime Minister from the chairman of the Zijin Mining Group, Jinghe Chen. In it, Mr Jinghe describes the decision not to grant the lease extension as "shocking" and that he is "saddened" by the impact it will have on employees and locals. The letter outlines that Zijin is "one of the largest metal mining companies in China, with operations in 12 countries", where he says the company makes significant economic and social contributions.





> Mr Jinghe writes that Zijin had "great confidence in PNG's mining sector" when it invested in Barrick Niugini Limited in 2015. "Zijin has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Porgera mine and the investment is one of China's largest in PNG," the letter reads.


----------



## wayneL

ducati916 said:


> 1. That you mentioned 'equity markets', I am taking that to mean debt burdens held by listed companies. You seem to be implying that the cost of capital (debt) is somehow going to impede profitability? With the cost of debt at historical lows, how do you come to that conclusion? To support that conclusion, really you are stating that demand will remain at or close to current levels. This could be due to the massive spike in unemployment. So potentially, companies profitability could be impacted.
> 
> Zero consumer spending however is not inflationary, it is deflationary. Companies declaring bankruptcy is deflationary.  Gold does not do well in a deflationary environment.
> 
> Last week's COT:
> 
> View attachment 103158
> 
> View attachment 103159
> 
> 
> Still no Commercial support for either. Gold went pretty much nowhere this week. This rather suggests that this week's COT will show a similar picture to last week's.
> 
> jog on
> duc



I'm more on board with the deflation view, or maybe  deflation then high inflation some time later.... maybe.

I took on some physical last year and was considering more this year, but I'm going to hold off. My view is that it will get hammered at some point this year and I reserve the right to change my opinion at any time.

(This view excludes trades in paper derivatives)


----------



## noirua




----------



## ducati916

This week's COT




Commercials still leaning against gold.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

wayneL said:


> 1. I'm more on board with the deflation view, or maybe  deflation then high inflation some time later.... maybe.
> 
> I took on some physical last year and was considering more this year, but I'm going to hold off. My view is that it will get hammered at some point this year and I reserve the right to change my opinion at any time.
> 
> (This view excludes trades in paper derivatives)




1. There is (a) 'inflation', which runs at 'X' and simply (slowly) erodes our buying power. Then we have (b) 1970's style (US) inflation: this the Fed will target (after Volcker) and we have (c) hyper-inflation (Schiff et al.).

There is type (a) inflation as a constant: simply look at CPI etc. This will not spook financial markets and it will only very slowly increase the price of gold over time, if, interest rates remain below inflation rate (real return). Type (b) inflation (again if rates below real return) will cause large spikes in gold and silver prices. Type (c) will obviously generate significant returns.

Currently we have a low type (a) inflation or even deflation. While I would never say never, if gold was going to $3000oz+ as Schiff et al. advocate, there has been more than enough monetary expansion, uncertainty, etc (surely) to at least exceed the previous high? 

Silver doing nothing. Not even back above the March high. Silver has participated in all the big gold moves. That it is languishing, is a concern if you are bullish on gold.

So essentially we are on the same page. I hold physical gold (wouldn't touch the miners) but am not buying any more. Particularly as there seems to be a premium attached to the physical atm: the herd running in way too late, pushing prices higher, very similar to the investors in toilet rolls.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

I own physical bought along the years at good price vs current levels.
Is it just me or is this type of gold never going back to the market until deaths or financial ruin knock on the door?I do not expect to ever see people rushing to offload their physical bullions and this may place a floor on the POG.
obviously geared x 20 paper Gold will counteract this greatly.


----------



## Bill M

qldfrog said:


> Is it just me or is this type of gold never going back to the market until deaths or financial ruin knock on the door?I do not expect to ever see people rushing to offload their physical bullions and this may place a floor on the POG.



There is hundreds of people buying and selling gold and silver on another online forum similar to this one everyday. Nearly everything that gets put up for sale gets sold for above spot price. Then there is non stop selling on other online platforms like ebay, gumtree and market place on facebook. So it does get back into the market sometimes. On the hand there are hoarders of gold and and silver. They just buy and rarely sell. My Mother was one these people and then when she passed it was my job to sell her precious metals. Since that time I have got into buying and selling gold and silver as a hobby. There is not many hobbies out there where you can actually make a profit out of doing what you like doing.



ducati916 said:


> Silver doing nothing. Not even back above the March high.



This is true but something very fundamental has happened. The bullion shops where some of us buy our silver have sold out all of their bars and coins. Premiums have gone up from $4 to $5 an oz to $9 and $10 an oz. There is a huge backlog of orders that they can not make delivery of for 2 Months or more. As soon as anything comes into the bullion shops it is sold immediately. In December 19 I bought a 10 oz Silver Bullion Coin for $286, yesterday I sold it $399. The problem is there is not much physical metal available in the bullion shops and this has caused the premiums to balloon upwards. The less there is of something the more people seem to want it. So in fact, selling any bullion that I have now is more profitable than anytime in the last 3 years.


----------



## ducati916

Bill M said:


> 1. This is true but something very fundamental has happened.
> 
> 2. The bullion shops where some of us buy our silver have sold out all of their bars and coins. Premiums have gone up from $4 to $5 an oz to $9 and $10 an oz. There is a huge backlog of orders that they can not make delivery of for 2 Months or more. As soon as anything comes into the bullion shops it is sold immediately. In December 19 I bought a 10 oz Silver Bullion Coin for $286, yesterday I sold it $399. The problem is there is not much physical metal available in the bullion shops and this has caused the premiums to balloon upwards. The less there is of something the more people seem to want it. So in fact, selling any bullion that I have now is more profitable than anytime in the last 3 years.




1. I am assuming your 'fundamental' is contained in [2]. If not, please elaborate.

2. I simply consider that as the 'Toilet Roll' effect.

jog on
duc


----------



## Bill M

ducati916 said:


> I simply consider that as the 'Toilet Roll' effect.



It may or may not be. I don't care as all I do is buy and sell it at a profit and it works for me. I have been doing this for quite some time.


----------



## rederob

Looking at gold prices from the time long-term resistance was broken, we are up some 26 percent, but the gold bug's index (HUI) is twice that.
From an investment (rather than trading) perspective, and for comparison purposes, in the chart below I am also reviewing Evolution Mining (EVN) and Newcrest (NCM) as these equities represent major Aussie gold producers. 
EVN has undeperformed spot gold by half, but at least remains well ahead of its starting point.
Since mid-February, when COVID-19 effects began to bite into global markets, Newcrest has massively underperformed.


My view is that both EVN and NCM currently represent excellent value propositions.
My thinking is based on the view that once the COVID-19 effects had bottomed-out and many market sectors began to improve, there has been a short-term transfer of money from traders into these better performing sectors.  By way of example, Sydney Airport Holdings is up almost 20% despite the fact it has been experiencing less traffic, while QAN is up around 70% with fewer flights!
As gold, priced in AUD terms, has increased by over 30% over the past year, I expect our major producers to report strong profits going forward and return to favour.


----------



## rederob

Another update on where we are and how trading activity has gold placed for more upside near term:


I don't usually include Relative Strength Indicators in my charts but the current set-up pattern is similar to several earlier breakouts.  More interestingly, POG is only $35 of its recent record high, yet is a long way off its former RSI highs.  If the pattern plays out in coming weeks then gold's next movement will be well in excess of $100.


----------



## qldfrog

Good increase overnight in the US


----------



## noirua

Maybe this chart of events is how it is going to go. There is a seemingly good recovery in the Dow 40 and other country's indexes. The problem here is it happened in the black Tuesday 1929 crash followed by a depression. The gold price was fixed then and Aussie markets traded with a 15% dollar premium in the early days of development. The Dow fell 90%.


----------



## rederob

Back to Gold.
Getting close to a big break.
I reckon it will be strongly *up*.


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Back to Gold.
> Getting close to a big break.
> I reckon it will be strongly *up*.





You have identified a Bull Flag (chart pattern).

Here is the same pattern, but it looks slightly different.




Does the difference in the 'look' attach any amended probabilities to the outcome? I'm asking because I don't know.

Two further charts:






Does the fact that Silver is not confirming the move add/subtract anything from the Bull Flag?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Does the difference in the 'look' attach any amended probabilities to the outcome? I'm asking because I don't know.



First, the pattern has a maths constraint - it can only break up or down.
If we assume that the economic influences presently in play are relatively unchanged then the historical factors that typically drive prices point to a break upwards.


----------



## aus_trader

rederob said:


> First, the pattern has a maths constraint - it can only break up or down.
> If we assume that the economic influences presently in play are relatively unchanged then the historical factors that typically drive prices point to a break upwards.



Looks like the break is happening...


Same on Silver...


----------



## rederob

This chart is a continuation of Tuesday's but hourly:
	

		
			
		

		
	



As @aus_trader points out, silver also got a nice lift overnight.
I don't see much need for commentary.
Gold is in a bull market.
Buy the dips, and watch how well the better Oz producers now respond.


----------



## Rosscoe62

Yes, I tend to agree with a break to the upside. Maybe just maybe where are heading towards 1800?

My only concern is the trillions of cash being pumped into the markets & the likelihood of inflation. 

Views?

Currently holding around half a dozen gold players and looking forward to the next leg up.


----------



## Rosscoe62

Oops -we are heading towards 1800


----------



## rederob

Rosscoe62 said:


> My only concern is the trillions of cash being pumped into the markets & the likelihood of inflation.



An ounce of gold will continue to be an ounce of gold, so those who make a big deal of inflation or deflation affecting the POG can do it with as much hooha as they like.
Fiat currencies are worthless.
Gold wins every time.


----------



## aus_trader

Sounds awesome guys. I have taken some action by buying a couple of Gold mining stocks for the Speculative Stock Portfolio. I'll post the details in that thread later tonight.

I have held the same view, and have a couple of ETFs for the longer term Gold price appreciation. But lately has been spooked by market manipulators and commentators fear mongering about the looming $800 Gold crash !

Today's Gold chart and fellow ASF members who share the same bullish views gives me confidence to venture out to the market and buy a couple of Gold stocks on the ASX. There is always risk and there is always doomsayers flaunting horror reports but it's good to hang out with the crowd with a positive attitude to life... and Gold price


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> This chart is a continuation of Tuesday's but hourly:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As @aus_trader points out, silver also got a nice lift overnight.
> I don't see much need for commentary.
> Gold is in a bull market.
> Buy the dips, and watch how well the better Oz producers now respond.



All of my gold stocks are up around 8 to 10% today. We are heading for a new breakout. Aussie gold hitting $2700 so mining profits will start to soar now.


----------



## Rosscoe62

Great day for the gold players. 

SLR on fire - fantastic trending stock at present ....

Top performer on the XJO today!

Weekly chart over six months. 

Very bullish ...

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=SLR.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100






https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=SLR.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100


----------



## Rosscoe62

Sorry that’s the weekly chart over the past year above ....


----------



## rederob

Although POG hit a recent high of $1751.72 it fell back to close some $10 lower for the week:


Over coming months a lot of dust is going to settle on global financial markets, and there will be very little good news.  That has traditionally been positive for gold.


----------



## rederob

Here's the daily chart:


----------



## Rosscoe62

Cheers Rederob.

I’m getting the feeling now that this bull market is just about to get hotter & extend its position. 1800 the first target and then onwards & upwards from there .....

https://www.barchart.com/futures/qu...e&sym=GCM20&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

Also, I pinched this article from another thread which I hope the poster doesn’t mind. It’s very interesting & appropriate to the discussions here.
Personally, I think the targets for the Gold/Silver Indices outlined are exaggerated but I do agree with some of the fundamentals expressed moving forward from the current state of play .....

https://goldswitzerland.com/total-catastrophe-of-the-currency-system/


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I dug up some of my gold bar yesterday after some light rain as it makes it easier to dig. 

I put on the billy and sat drinking tea and carefully polished it. 

It is a beautiful metal. 

Quite apart from markets, financials and charts.

It is a beautiful metal. 

gg


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> Here's the daily chart:





Mr Rederob,

So gold moving, supported now by a move in silver (still lagging, but moving), Oil and a selloff in 30yr Bonds. Now all of these moves are relatively short in duration: however they do essentially represent the 'inflation' argument, which has been quite prominent in the last week or so.

Is gold moving on the inflation argument or would it still move (higher) if the inflation argument fell away at a later date? Or are you simply agnostic on the whole inflation issue?

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Mr Rederob,
> 
> So gold moving, supported now by a move in silver (still lagging, but moving), Oil and a selloff in 30yr Bonds. Now all of these moves are relatively short in duration: however they do essentially represent the 'inflation' argument, which has been quite prominent in the last week or so.
> 
> Is gold moving on the inflation argument or would it still move (higher) if the inflation argument fell away at a later date? Or are you simply agnostic on the whole inflation issue?
> 
> jog on
> duc



First, over the past month silver has significantly outperformed gold:


As to inflation or even deflation, I think I said previously that they really are neither here nor there.
When fiat currencies are threatened either way, investors need to look for certainty.
Gold is immutable.
I admit to being fascinated by the technical significance of POG at $1800.
My sense is that this will turn into long-term support, as previously it stood at $1050.


----------



## rederob

Gold was rallying nicely last night until Moderna vaccinated the Dow Jones Industrial Average against further losses, and killed off some gold bugs:



There are posts elsewhere from @kahuna1 who has a few things to say about Moderna.  My take is that it epitomises everything one needs to know about US markets, and will be found out soon enough.
For those following gold in Aussie dollars, the decline from yesterday's peak was around AU$95 - ouch!!!

For those coming late to gold, buy the dips - today look for RMS to slide back into range.


----------



## gartley

I am a gold bug, but I have to trade what I see and at the moment I don't like the price action that is unfolding here. There is a so much bullish sentiment around at the traps at the moment which also makes me wary. Short term the following 8hr closes are bearish(at least for the next week) and as such I took out short positions today as this is also accompanied what appears to be a completed 5 wave structure from the March 17 low and a daily engulfing red candle.
Longer term I think we are in the process of forming a top here that will stall the market until early next year as shown in the delta chart attached but this needs to be confirmed in the dynamic cycles chart which it has not done yet. Assuming it is however,  next cycle point low red 8 is next year.


----------



## Rosscoe62

*Metals Settle Mixed With Silver At A 2-1/2 Month High On Optimism About Industrial Metals Demand*
cmdtyNewswires - Mon May 18, 2:16PM CDT
Jun Comex gold (GCM20) on Monday closed -21.9 (-1.25%), and July silver (SIN20) closed +0.398 (+2.33%).

Metals prices on Monday settled mixed with silver at a 2-1/2 month high. Gold prices on Monday fell back from a 7-1/2 year nearest-futures high and turned lower after stocks surged on optimism about a vaccine for the coronavirus. Silver prices rallied on a weak dollar along with plans by China to revive infrastructure projects.

Stocks rallied sharply on Monday and curbed safe-haven demand for gold after Moderna said its initial vaccine tests showed that it successfully creates an immune-system response that protects against the coronavirus and is safe.

Gold prices initially rallied in overnight trade and matched its 7-1/2 year nearest-futures high after comments on Sunday night from Fed Chair Powell signaled Fed policy will remain ultra-accommodative. Mr. Powell said the Fed can increase its emergency lending programs, and "there's a lot more we can do, we're not out of ammunition by a long shot."

Silver prices garnered support Monday from a weak dollar and hopes for increased Chinese industrial metals demand after China's State Council announced guidelines to revive large infrastructure projects.

Monday's global economic data was mostly bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. May NAHB housing market index rose +7 to 37, stronger than expectations of +5 to 35. Also, China Apr new home prices rose +0.42% m/m, the biggest increase in 6 months, and home prices rose in 50 cities in April compared with 38 cities in March. Conversely, Japan Q1 GDP fell -3.4% (q/q annualized), which is negative for industrial metals demand although slightly stronger than expectations of -4.5%.

Precious metal prices continue to see underlying safe-haven demand from the global coronavirus pandemic. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 4.859 million globally, with deaths exceeding 318,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Friday rose to a new record high of 3,067.99 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 687.146 million ounces last Thursday.


----------



## gartley

Just adding to my last post #12281. The following long term geometric chart adds weight to the long term delta chart and the importance of the level gold currently sits at. This appears to be a level of huge resistance to overcome, even though we have had a slight throwever on the upper trendline of this monthly chart. As can be seen drawing as straight line from 2011 top to the Dec 2015 low and cloning this line to the 2008 top and cloning again to an equal distance above the 2011/2015 line, price action sitting at this resistance point. Doing likewise with the orange line and cloning upward to the 2018 top and  then again equally upward we have an intercection at current level.


----------



## rederob

As I don't trade gold, @gartley's technicals are not in my kit.
My focus has always been on the probable long term outcome, while showing intra-week action.  So here's where we are again this morning:


I don't yet see the ingredients in place for a powerful move towards $1800, which I see as key resistance.  And as always am happy to see pullbacks take the heat out out of price rises, as I'm not keen on bubbles forming any time soon!
Near term price action remains on track for a plus $1750 close soon.


----------



## aus_trader

rederob said:


> As I don't trade gold, @gartley's technicals are not in my kit.
> My focus has always been on the probable long term outcome, while showing intra-week action.  So here's where we are again this morning:
> 
> 
> I don't yet see the ingredients in place for a powerful move towards $1800, which I see as key resistance.  And as always am happy to see pullbacks take the heat out out of price rises, as I'm not keen on bubbles forming any time soon!
> Near term price action remains on track for a plus $1750 close soon.



Yes I also like a slow rise with pull backs. A rapid rise would increase the chance of a crash (at least back down to a long term moving average) in my opinion.


----------



## Rosscoe62

I’m a holder of 7 gold players at present, through triggers of mine using TA.

I bought in after the dust had settled from the March 23rd selloff and began buying the gold stocks from mid April - once the charts demonstrated upward momentum was well & truly back on track again.

Gold was trending beautifully prior to the March hit & now has taken off once again.

I think the comments of a slower traction gearing up towards 1800 is correct. I think a sideways pattern will be established for some time.

However, I’m still bullish regarding the sector.

Safe haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. 

Low global bond yields which boost demand for gold as a store of value as well as current low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies have boosted prices in this asset class. The pandemic being the catalyst for the safer haven option as well.

I see this trend continuing short-mid term.

In place are trailing stops should a sharp trend reversal occur ....


----------



## aus_trader

The March selloff was brutal and I also got out of Gold stocks for some time and then the recovery was even more violent that it took me a while to get back into Gold stocks. Interesting times...


----------



## tinhat

aus_trader said:


> The March selloff was brutal and I also got out of Gold stocks for some time and then the recovery was even more violent that it took me a while to get back into Gold stocks. Interesting times...




The worms will eat your flesh once you are dead.


----------



## aus_trader

tinhat said:


> The worms will eat your flesh once you are dead.



I think those worms and Hedgies that dumped the market in March already ate some flesh, while I was alive


----------



## gartley

I keep hearing amongst Ellioticians about a wave 5 blow of move in gold currently unfolding. Wave 5's are usually the longest and most dramatic waves in commodities. There is a problem here, wave 1 is the longest wave in this structure from the 16th March low. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest as per the rules and thus an extended wave 5 will not unfold if this count is correct. This lust thrust has come from a contracting triangle wave 4 and the measured move target was 1765 which has been reached.


----------



## rederob

@gartley - Here's how I see the wave count work better (my count is *golden*): 


My view is that the count window in your chart is time constrained and the impulse waves are therefore not properly accounted for.
Underlying my count is the preferred trend channel I use to preempt future prices.  I place wave *3* terminating in the plus$1800 window which I have shaded, above.


----------



## aus_trader

Thanks gartley  and rederob. I respect both views.

But I have been also listening to a few Gold / Gold mining guys from Kitco and other sites and general consensus is a further advance to test all time high in Gold chart. No one makes a claim it'll be a straight line to the re-test but they reckon the fundamentals are in place for a re-test in the near future...

Let's hope so.


----------



## rederob

Although it was uneventful for gold since last Friday, it was comforting to see POG close above $1730 and remain poised to break higher next week.
A quick recap of my wave count going forward:


We also need to bear in mind that during the week POG had its highest close for 7.5 years, so bullish momentum, while seemingly equivocating, is wholly intact.


----------



## gartley

rederob said:


> Although it was uneventful for gold since last Friday, it was comforting to see POG close above $1730 and remain poised to break higher next week.
> A quick recap of my wave count going forward:
> 
> 
> We also need to bear in mind that during the week POG had its highest close for 7.5 years, so bullish momentum, while seemingly equivocating, is wholly intact.



Rederob,
I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles,  but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse waveawave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined and one  that meets the rules,would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.


rederob said:


> Although it was uneventful for gold since last Friday, it was comforting to see POG close above $1730 and remain poised to break higher next week.
> A quick recap of my wave count going forward:
> 
> 
> We also need to bear in mind that during the week POG had its highest close for 7.5 years, so bullish momentum, while seemingly equivocating, is wholly intact.




Rederob, 

I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles,  but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse wave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined, (one  that meets the rules) would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.
Having said that, my shorts taken out earlier in the week in the US gold miners are well ahead and the downtrend looks to resume on Tuesday. 
Gold may have the fundementals on its side here, but fundementals are crap for market timing and timing is everything.  I have a respect what what the long term charts suggest taking them at face value because they suggested likewise for the stock indices before the crash.
I had an exceptional run trading gold long since the middle of last year and although I am longer term bullish I trade what I see, bullish or bearish. For now a pullback after this strong move up,would be welcomed to give another opportunity later  for trades on the long side.

Cheers


----------



## gartley

Gold in australian dollars looks to have done it's dash IMO. Looking for a historic top and longer term decline to take hold if this wave count is correct, this aligns with the earlier longer term analysis on Gold priced in USD.


----------



## rederob

gartley said:


> Rederob,
> I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles,  but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse waveawave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined and one  that meets the rules,would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.
> 
> 
> Rederob,
> 
> I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles,  but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse wave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined, (one  that meets the rules) would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.
> Having said that, my shorts taken out earlier in the week in the US gold miners are well ahead and the downtrend looks to resume on Tuesday.
> Gold may have the fundementals on its side here, but fundementals are crap for market timing and timing is everything.  I have a respect what what the long term charts suggest taking them at face value because they suggested likewise for the stock indices before the crash.
> I had an exceptional run trading gold long since the middle of last year and although I am longer term bullish I trade what I see, bullish or bearish. For now a pullback after this strong move up,would be welcomed to give another opportunity later  for trades on the long side.
> 
> Cheers



Thanks - I took the termination of "*1*" for granted, so In the chart below I have used the closing prices to show more clearly how I arrived at my alternative count:
	

		
			
		

		
	



As I don't "trade" it's neither here nor there what happens next week as I am in for a longer haul.
In terms of cycles, I won't mind the current sideways movement running into July, as POG has increased about $300/oz since dipping, along with *all *markets, to $1450 some 8 weeks ago.
And exactly a year ago POG closed at $1273.


----------



## aus_trader

Gold in Aud ($) has been good for our asx listed miners. Hope the pull back will be shallow that gartley is suggesting based on waves. Otherwise I may have to liquidate my Goldie positions. Anyway it's good to have the predictions, hence the graphs posted, in preparation for a pull back.

However like rederob, I will be holding onto the longer term Gold ETFs. I think the macro picture is bullish if we are talking in years rather than short term. Also they sometimes trade with wider spreads as well, so will not be suitable to buy and sell on the shorter term I think.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Title of Thread : Gold Price - Where is it heading?*

The answer is Up.

Ask a bookie. What odds on it going down. What odds on it going up. Follow the odds is my advice. 

gg


----------



## wayneL

gartley said:


> Gold in australian dollars looks to have done it's dash IMO. Looking for a historic top and longer term decline to take hold if this wave count is correct, this aligns with the earlier longer term analysis on Gold priced in USD.
> View attachment 103716
> View attachment 103717



This is my view also.

I've got some cash to buy more physical (I want some silver too) will buy if we get a nice pull back. Medium/long term the odds are we go a lot higher, my opinion in tune with most you of guys.

Meanwhile I've got physical I bought last year close to what I thought was minimum value. If gold goes off to the races without me buying more now, I'll still be a happy camper.

Considering some option strategies on fits too.


----------



## gartley

I have held a portfolio of companies and ETFs  listed on the NYSE, namely
GDX
GDXJ
SBGL
Gold(Barrick)
NUGT
Have liquidated all for now.
Liked to hold securities in USD because our dollar got pummeled in the last 10 months !


----------



## noirua

GOLD
https://www.advfn.com/gold


----------



## rederob

Here's spot gold for the past month in US and Australian dollar terms, indexed:


Clearly we can some influence of an increasingly strong Australian dollar, today sitting over $0.66 to one Australian dollar.


----------



## gartley

And that should continue. AUDUSD should continue bullishly to 0.68


----------



## ducati916

Mr Rederob:

The market simply isn't buying into the 'inflation' argument. If it were, Silver would be moving. Silver is doing nothing. Its underperformance against Gold is stunning. If it were simply lagging behind but moving, that would be one thing. This massive underperformance should raise concerns in Gold-bugs.




Which throws doubt on whether Gold will actually enter into a new bull market.




Still struggling at that 1800 level. This is 2 months that it has failed to break through. That is not really the hallmark of a bull market with plenty of hype and excitement. If it cannot break through relatively soon, the bears will become bolder and start to launch attacks.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Mr Rederob:
> Still struggling at that 1800 level. This is 2 months that it has failed to break through. That is not really the hallmark of a bull market with plenty of hype and excitement. If it cannot break through relatively soon, the bears will become bolder and start to launch attacks.



As recently as 10 October 2018 POG closed below $1200/oz.  It has risen strongly since then to close at a recent record high (not seen since 2012) last week some $550 (over 45%) higher.
I do not share your interpretation of gold's market position.
Furthermore, over the past month silver has outperformed gold by over 20 percentage points, so for the umteenth time I don't agree with your assessment of the nexus:
	

		
			
		

		
	



I personally would prefer that gold did not breach $1800 this year - it has done as much as it needs to already.  However, as we have seen, gold can push through $100 very quickly so hitting $1800 in June would not be difficult.


----------



## gartley

Moves quickly but I doubt this will breach 1800 by June or even end of this year.  Will use any reasonable rally to add to shorts until current downtrend shows signs of a bottom in place but I doubt that will be this year.....


----------



## gartley

My current long term EW 2c worth on POG. Looks to be unfolding in a textbook impulsive structure....


----------



## Miner

Just geopolitical - gold could likely to go up far more than charts are saying.
Reference India and China - two largest populations, arch rival enemies on the sub continent, together largest buyers of gold and having largest no of Corona cases.
Politically disturbed. Biologically disturbed not being able to manage virus attack. Flood, cyclone, locus - terrible situation in India. So divert attention. China and India are ramping for border tension. Insecurity. people start to buy more gold. Hence the equation for gold to go up. DYOR
Love to see gold price increase but totally unhappy on the political reasons and public sufferings in China and India.


----------



## rederob

gartley said:


> My current long term EW 2c worth on POG. Looks to be unfolding in a textbook impulsive structure....



Your chart has wave "*c*" under $1400/oz.
I have levels of support at $1675, then $1550, then $1450.
I cannot see POG going lower than at the bottom of the COVID selloff, and you have "*c*" $50 below my "bottom" rung of $1450.
I would like to see POG consolidate above immediate support well into June, to shake out all the weak hands.
I don't discount any possibilities, but I cannot see fiat currencies doing well against gold for several years.  So the "impulse" pattern you charted does not fit my thinking.
As always, time will tell.


----------



## gartley

-I didn't see the world stock markets selling off and losing 36% in less than 1 month and now NASDAQ pushing ATH's again and to be honest neither did 99% of market pundits...
Most likely the chart I posted won't work out that way ( they seldom do), but anything is possible at any time in these markets. Whilst you are probably right about the price level of gold, one thing that is clear to me is that the downtrend will persist until next year if take my cycles analysis at face value and that's a lot of time.....


----------



## gartley

Just following up from the projection made last week for rationale behind taking short positions in spot gold. Back then looked at the 8hr dynamic cycles which suggested a correction was about to commence and downtrend has continued since. There is no evidence on either the daily or 8Hr bars which I use that a rally or revrsal is yet imminent.
	

		
			
		

		
	




The current 20 day cycle ( 7/8 day offsets) suggests 1675-1688 range for this leg down and I am looking to take some profits there as it also has confluence with the lower channel trend line.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

rederob said:


> Here's spot gold for the past month in US and Australian dollar terms,
> 
> we can some influence of an increasingly strong Australian dollar, today sitting over $0.66 to one Australian dollar.



I know what you mean, but i'd really like to cash my 66 aussie dollars and receive 100. 

(maybe that's why banks are doing well today, other side of the trade?)


----------



## rederob

Dona Ferentes said:


> I know what you mean, but i'd really like to cash my 66 aussie dollars and receive 100.
> 
> (maybe that's why banks are doing well today, other side of the trade?)



I discovered there is only 20 minutes to edit out the really dumb mistakes I make, and this was a doozie .
I have a bad habit of not using spellcheck or grammar checkers and write directly into ASF. then press "post reply" without reviewing what I wrote.
Luckily the charts I post don't rely on me for their data!


----------



## Dona Ferentes

we all make them. 

let the charts do the talking


----------



## Rosscoe62

3/4 of my gold positions were sold off today. The trend has been broken temporarily & I concur with gartley that further movement to the downside is imminent. Heading back to the lower end of the range in the short term. 
It’s a sector to watch very closely however as when the upward trend re establishes itself again, solid gains are likely to be captured and quickly ...


----------



## rederob

Here's my take on the bull trend:


As very little price action is outside the narrower band above, I can see a possible near term low at about $1660.


----------



## explod

rederob said:


> Here's my take on the bull trend:
> 
> 
> As very little price action is outside the narrower band above, I can see a possible near term low at about $1660.



The volume suggests that this is a last smash for shorter to get out. In my view gold will hit all time highs soon. Providers can no longer keep up to the demand, who'd have thought Perth Mint would be struggling to fill orders. In my view gold is hot. Miners knocked back a bit today but many were overrunning. Interesting times.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

The coming precious metal price rise will be unprecedented throughout recorded history, over the next decade.

I am just going to accumulate Newcrest Mining (NCM) as I believe they have the best portfolio of gold producing assets on the planet, better than Barrick and Newmont.

This is a long-term play, multi-decade play; and so I will be accumulating NCM for the next decade, then holding for a few decades at least.


----------



## Miner

rederob said:


> I discovered there is only 20 minutes to edit out the really dumb mistakes I make, and this was a doozie .
> I have a bad habit of not using spellcheck or grammar checkers and write directly into ASF. then press "post reply" without reviewing what I wrote.
> Luckily the charts I post don't rely on me for their data!



Mate 
Just speak Australian and not English leaving charts do the talking


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

rederob said:


> I discovered there is only 20 minutes to edit out the really dumb mistakes I make, and this was a doozie .
> I have a bad habit of not using spellcheck or grammar checkers and write directly into ASF. then press "post reply" without reviewing what I wrote.
> Luckily the charts I post don't rely on me for their data!




20 minutes is actually quite long, compared to other platforms; not that I am complaining.

We aren't writing a thesis here, so I wouldn't be worried about a few typos.

I have a habit of re-reading what I post, many times, because I am borderline obsessive compulsive ; on most occasions, however sometimes I will be busy and distracted and won't be able to re-read my posts.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Borderline.... Mate, it's CDO, gotta have the letters in alphabetical order


----------



## qldfrog

Gold wise, in a stable world, chart based, we are on a peak and i see pog in usd going down short term.i kept physical and miners but completed sell off pmgold yesterday.
BUT there is a lot happening with china flexing muscles in HK, India and if it worsens we might see AUD fall AND POG jump, so imagine POG in AUD....
I will keep a very keen eye on the geopolitical story and press the pmgold buy button very quickly


----------



## explod

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-...ipulations-on-a-scale-rarely-seen-before.html

It has been manipulated for some time. However a good recovery overnight. Anything can happen. The US importing huge amounts of late.


----------



## gartley

Gold hit the bottom of the channel almost the price projection as shown in the last post. I took profits on my shorts at this point and be looking to re enter after the bounce. On a side note Barrick Gold has generated a downside projection of 19.43-20.42 in the 10W Nominal Cycle. All projections are either met or invalidated. This one is still on, and if not invalidated will either reverse in this range ( albeit temporarily) or continue through it if there are higher timefame cycle projections that are outstanding.

XAUAUD is also on the verge of generating substantially lower projections (2311-2374) in the 20W Nominal cycle. The only way the projection will not invalidate is with a strong rally starting today. So looking to getting more opportunities on the bounces unless they invalidate.


----------



## rederob

Here's an update of the chart I posted a week ago:


If it plays out we get to $1800 in June.
But as I also said, a lot more consolidation around present price levels makes for a bolder impulse later on, irrespective of Elliott's wave counts.


----------



## rederob

I have realigned the shaded box to include all days of the latest downleg, so the pattern survives another day!


Judging from the mayhem in the USA over recent days it's fair to say that "safe haven" investing will be all the go over the coming week.  Maybe gold won't get to $1800, but I have a strong feeling we are in for a new 2020 high.


----------



## ducati916

Commercials still leaning against Gold:




jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

For the gold bugs:


That's a lot of headroom to be filled, and will take a number of years.
Be patient!


----------



## rederob

The disconnect between AUD and USD gold prices continues as the Australian dollar strengthens.
On the positive side the key driver of gold's direction, being US dollar-denominated gold, is not far off its 20 May 2020 record high, and this chart shows how it can leapfrog it:


----------



## ducati916

Gold just can't get through that 1750 level. This is the 4'th failure.




This range will break one way or t'other. If I was long, I would be nervous. Gold (recently) has had every possible reason (money printing/QE/low to 0% yields/etc) to advance. It has failed. That must be a concern?

Should I mention Silver?

jog on
duc


----------



## explod

It will continue to rise in my view but a consolidation off $1600 would not surprise me.


----------



## rederob

I like to present information in a clear context.  So below is where POG sits from the perspective of a post-GFC recovery:


The trend channel encompasses a $250 range, and is consistent with the volatility that occurred in March 2020 as a result of COV19's impact on markets.  Extending the above channel to end-2020 has a lower band of $1595, and an upper limit $250 higher, ie, well over $1800/oz.  I point this out as I see this as the sustainable range well into the future, rather than it being indicative of the current bull market.


----------



## gartley

I sold my gold stocks as stated in my earlier posts and went short because the technical evidence was overwhelming that this thing is going to correct. At least for the next some months anyway although the bigger picture says a lot longer ( but for now I am only looking at the next few months)  until more price action gets painted to suggest what might happen with the longer term.
In my last post I made mention that XAUAUD in particular looked vulnerable and perhaps even made a very important long term top as price action had crossed below both cycle  offset lines and given substantially lower projection.
So I think at this stage the wave 3 projection you are making should be either put on hold or discarded.


----------



## ducati916

Gold up today:




Finding support at the 50SMA. Problem is the 20SMA is (starting) to roll over. Gold needs to get back above the 20SMA. Either way something is going to happen pretty soon. I've had a look at some other technical indicators. The issue (as always) is what time frame to look at. In the end I went for the 1 month time frame:




Marginal: but I think the Bulls might shade it and get their B/O through resistance.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

It was an interesting week for gold in that "safe haven" status was never apparent while US communities were in disarray.  Moreover, US jobs data befuddled market commentators who predicted large losses, and were greeted instead by large gains at the end of the week. Top that off with a declining rig count for US LTO which pushed WTI crude prices a further 5% higher for the day and it's not hard to see that gold ran out of friends.
So here we are:


I intend to add to one of my gold equity holdings next week, but am not in a hurry.  I'll see how the mood shapes up over the coming week.
@gartley might wait a bit longer than me because his charts show a lot more downside is ahead.  Perhaps he might share his thoughts?


----------



## gartley

rederob said:


> @gartley might wait a bit longer than me because his charts show a lot more downside is ahead.  Perhaps he might share his thoughts?




Hello Rederob,
I am still looking for lower prices here and still hold my short on the gold stocks. At the moment there no long term cycle projections in the Hurst models I use. The only cycle projection outstanding is this one, the 10 week cycle with a projection of approximately 1633 so for now that's an initial short term target. IF price breaks through 1620 however it sets
a new projection of 1469 in the 20 week cycle.







 I should note that these can be invalidated by price crossing back up the 2 offset lines. But how can we throw the odds in our favour and know from before that they won't do that?
I think I have the answer with this, and will show what  has worked for me in the past as well as cover this in more detail in a new thread I will create regarding the status of the current trend in the stock indices.
Aside from the Hurst cycles above, I use my own dynamic cycles. The follwoing charts are the weekly and monthly price cycle detrends. The weekly detrends have rolled over as can be seen. I have created a range for the expected trough of the current move down for each detrend based on the previous 2 troughs, ( I can go furher and average all the earlier ones but for now will stick with these two giving me a maximum and minimun target range )
So for the weekly target I am looking at 1479 to 1512, which is just above the Hurst 20Week cycle of 1469 if it gets activated.
Moving on to the monthly dynamic cycles I should add that the detrends have not rolled over yet but I suspect they will. If they do we are looking at a range of 1306 to 1479. but will worry about and update that later.
This gels with the long term EW chart I posted and also the long term Delta fixed cycle chart that I posted earlier for this trend to persist till late this year or early next. But I don't want to think  about that just yet as things may change and would rather focus on the market at hand.


----------



## ducati916

Commercials:




Still selling that Gold.

On a comparative basis:




Silver massively underperforming Gold. However, Silver Miners massively outperforming Gold Miners. Interesting.

jog on
duc


----------



## investtrader

ducati916 said:


> Commercials:
> 
> View attachment 104422
> 
> 
> Still selling that Gold.
> 
> On a comparative basis:
> 
> View attachment 104423
> 
> 
> Silver massively underperforming Gold. However, Silver Miners massively outperforming Gold Miners. Interesting.
> 
> jog on
> duc



So the Commercials have been wrong for along time?


----------



## ducati916

investtrader said:


> So the Commercials have been wrong for along time?





That is one way to look at it.

The other way to look at is that they through their selling are capping the advance of gold significantly. Eventually, unless they reverse their positions, Gold will simply decline (until they buy).

Now I wouldn't presume to tell you which possibility you should embrace: however, I know which one I embrace.

jog on
duc


----------



## investtrader

Duc,
I don't trade Gold, so I couldn't care less where it went. But when that red line is below zero the price goes up.


----------



## ducati916

investtrader said:


> Duc,
> I don't trade Gold, so I couldn't care less where it went. But when that red line is below zero the price goes up.





Well you will be expecting gold to trade higher then.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Silver still underperforming Gold.




Until Silver starts to perform, the rally in Gold has to be suspect.

jog on
duc


----------



## explod

Very good article on the bigger picture here.

https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/g...ow Record&mc_cid=99a35b7e69&mc_eid=a09377a6d7


----------



## Rosscoe62

I’m still holding a few gold players including WAF that appears to be going against the short term trend at present.

For what it’s worth find a link to the moving averages of XAUUSD (the 20 & 50 day moving averages suggest sell however the more mid/long term MACD averages - 20/50, 20/100, 20/200 + 50/100,50/150, 50/200 suggest buy) ... I personally think the trend is for more downside short term but would not be at all surprised to see it reverse & go the other way ...

Interesting times ahead for this sector.

https://www.barchart.com/forex/quotes/^XAUUSD/opinion


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

investtrader said:


> Duc,
> I don't trade Gold, so I couldn't care less where it went. But when that red line is below zero the price goes up.




Which price are you referring to?

The COMEX futures?

The vast majority of precious metals buyers don't use the COMEX as it is a price based on fraud!

You walk into a bullion dealer and just ask them if they want to buy your precious metals. If they don't give you the price that you want, then walk away!

Very simple.


----------



## ducati916

Commercials still leaning against Gold




jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

A further chart:




That trendline is broken. There is horizontal support, which will need to hold, otherwise gold might have a bit of a tumble. Gold seriously needs to break through that horizontal resistance to have any chance of progressing from a cyclical bounce to a new (bull) trend.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

I am no longer fazed by what pundits thought gold might do in any week, especially after the first week of US BLM protests did not scare investors into gold's apparent safe haven status.
What we do know since then is the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low in a bid to stimulate the US economy into action.  All it tends to mean for the stock market is easier access to a more-debased fiat currency that lets speculators loose.
Ultimately gold wins this race.
The below chart shows that POG remains well and truly on track to hit $1800 which, in perspective, would mean a rise of some 20% during the year:


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> 1. I am no longer fazed by what pundits thought gold might do in any week,
> 
> 2. especially after the first week of US BLM protests did not scare investors into gold's apparent safe haven status.
> 
> 3. What we do know since then is the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low in a bid to stimulate the US economy into action.
> 
> 4. All it tends to mean for the stock market is easier access to a more-debased fiat currency that lets speculators loose.
> 
> 
> 5. Ultimately gold wins this race.
> 
> 
> The below chart shows that POG remains well and truly on track to hit $1800 which, in perspective, would mean a rise of some 20% during the year:




1. Were you ever?

2. Again, one would expect the riots to be bullish for gold. Zero reaction. I would find that to be at least a concern.

3. Correct.

4. I suppose it depends who you consider 'speculators'. Increased QE benefits the Banks and other Financials (Insurance Co, Pension Funds, etc) and the Corporations themselves. They are not usually classed as speculators, although in many cases that is exactly what they are. They are however 'big money' considered as a group. Their 'wellbeing' is bullish for stocks: not for gold.

5. That is a conclusion based on what? The gold chart?

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Here is a chart of the Miners (GDX:SPY).




They have been doing well: obviously selling production into good prices.

There is an indication of a break of trend from late May (the top being 20 May). They are now either (a) resuming their upward trend or (b) heading back towards support.

Due to the lack of traction exhibited by gold currently, I'm guessing (b).

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

Consolidation rules:


----------



## NatWhote

I am wondering if anyone will be buying or selling PMGOLD in the next few weeks? Given covid-19 situation is easing but going into a recession.


----------



## qldfrog

NatWhote said:


> I am wondering if anyone will be buying or selling PMGOLD in the next few weeks? Given covid-19 situation is easing but going into a recession.



not yet but with the speed of the market in the last 6 months, I have a finger ready to press on the buy as soon as required


----------



## NatWhote

qldfrog said:


> not yet but with the speed of the market in the last 6 months, I have a finger ready to press on the buy as soon as required



What is your opinion in terms of when is the buy time for you for PMGOLD?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

I can't believe that the Perth Mint is still out of stock. This is unbelievable.


----------



## wayneL

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I can't believe that the Perth Mint is still out of stock. This is unbelievable.



Try getting silver... Even worse.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> Try getting silver... Even worse.




Yeah; I have been wanting to buy ~10Kg of Silver to add to my stack, but the Perth Mint has been sold out for months now and the bullion dealers are charging a massive premium.


----------



## qldfrog

NatWhote said:


> What is your opinion in terms of when is the buy time for you for PMGOLD?



Has to be well above  1750 USD..any breach of 1800 and i will buy again, my view is better opportunity for my cash right now on the market


----------



## wayneL

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Yeah; I have been wanting to buy ~10Kg of Silver to add to my stack, but the Perth Mint has been sold out for months now and the bullion dealers are charging a massive premium.



What about them premiums on oz. silver coins!

Jayzzuzz!

Got a couple of bars on order... Closer to spot but still.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> What about them premiums on oz. silver coins!
> 
> Jayzzuzz!
> 
> Got a couple of bars on order... Closer to spot but still.




I was having a chat with a Perth Mint guy a few weeks back. They have the mint running 247 to supply the demand.

I will have to place an order and wait, it seems. I thought the demand would fall, but this has been since ~Feb now.


----------



## wayneL

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I was having a chat with a Perth Mint guy a few weeks back. They have the mint running 247 to supply the demand.
> 
> I will have to place an order and wait, it seems. I thought the demand would fall, but this has been since ~Feb now.



I still hold a view that there will be some sort of a substantive retracement and both gold and silver at which I will go in with my ears pinned back.

I bought some gold last year at around 1250 because I thought it was at around about minimum value at that time... But not enough.

Adding a few shekels worth o gold and silver here and there, just because.

Anyway that's my view I hope it plays out.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> I still hold a view that there will be some sort of a substantive retracement and both gold and silver at which I will go in with my ears pinned back.
> 
> I bought some gold last year at around 1250 because I thought it was at around about minimum value at that time... But not enough.
> 
> Adding a few shekels worth o gold and silver here and there, just because.
> 
> Anyway that's my view I hope it plays out.




Well, it is the safest bet within all the markets. Gold and Silver will always be valuable; now and forever in time. It has been the case since recorded history.


----------



## rederob

Nothing is foolproof, but the below 4-hourly spot gold chart, using the *true strength indicator's* _crossings _as the buy/sell signal, gives a reasonable trading return:


Wherever the TSI margin exceeds 10 points and there is a "V" shaped inflection of the TSI, then it's possible to pre-empt the crossing.
Next action will be a "*buy.*"


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

rederob said:


> Nothing is foolproof, but the below 4-hourly spot gold chart, using the *true strength indicator's* _crossings _as the buy/sell signal, gives a reasonable trading return:
> 
> 
> Wherever the TSI margin exceeds 10 points and there is a "V" shaped inflection of the TSI, then it's possible to pre-empt the crossing.
> Next action will be a "*buy.*"




Is that based on Golden Cross and Death Cross trading?


----------



## rederob

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Is that based on Golden Cross and Death Cross trading?



No, it's just a simple trading strategy based on "TSI crossings."
There are no tricks to it.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

rederob said:


> No, it's just a simple trading strategy based on "TSI crossings."
> There are no tricks to it.




TSI is clearly pre-emptive of Golden/Death Crosses. You might have something here.


----------



## rederob

Chronos-Plutus said:


> TSI is clearly pre-emptive of Golden/Death Crosses. You might have something here.



Are you ready?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

rederob said:


> Are you ready?



How are you reading this? Flag pennant has formed and breakout could go either way?


----------



## rederob

Chronos-Plutus said:


> How are you reading this? Flag pennant has formed and breakout could go either way?



It went exactly to plan:


Note my comments on Wednesday's post, above.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

rederob said:


> It went exactly to plan:
> 
> 
> Note my comments on Wednesday's post, above.



Haha; I hadn't even checked.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

rederob said:


> Nothing is foolproof, but the below 4-hourly spot gold chart, using the *true strength indicator's* _crossings _as the buy/sell signal, gives a reasonable trading return:
> 
> 
> Wherever the TSI margin exceeds 10 points and there is a "V" shaped inflection of the TSI, then it's possible to pre-empt the crossing.
> Next action will be a "*buy.*"




It would be interesting to backtest this over a few years. Buy on the TSI buy signal, double-down on the crossover; then unwind full position on the TSI sell signal.


----------



## rederob

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It would be interesting to backtest this over a few years. Buy on the TSI buy signal, double-down on the crossover; then unwind full position on the TSI sell signal.



In a meandering market there might be some mismatches, but in a bull market the warning signals prior to a crossing are very easy to spot.


----------



## explod

The highest daily close since 2012.

Media picking it up too


----------



## rederob

POG has done well over the past fortnight, to close again at a new high (post 2013):


----------



## rederob

Another record close overnight for the present gold bull:


----------



## ducati916

Commercials still leaning against.




When you consider what a perfect storm there has been for gold recently, yet, still below all time highs, you would think that the Commercials leaning against it may well have had something to do with it. I note that the miners (both in gold and silver) have outperformed the metal.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

Gold has meandered so far this week and, despite being near 8-year record highs, is only $6 above its May 18th peak.  So that's about 6 weeks of going nowhere fast!
Were I trading gold, I would be a *buyer *and, based on the 4-hourly chart trend which I described in earlier posts, we are nearing a crossing point.  The thing is, buying signals using this pattern usually occur "below the line" as noted here:


If @gartley is right, then we should see a big move down in coming days.  That's certainly consistent with TSI expectations.
The thing is, every now and again in a bull trend the buy signal occurs above the line.  The last time a similar period of consolidation was met by a buy trigger at about the same level was last December.  POG pushed over $100/oz higher in that run.
All I know from past records is that gold will not continue to trade for much longer in such a narrow range.  My coin toss was a heads up.


----------



## ducati916

A bit of gold news:

_Caixin reports today that 83 tons of gold bars used as loan collateral by Nasdaq-listed Wuhan Kingold Jewelry, Inc. (ticker: KGJI) “turned out to be nothing but gilded copper.”  That’s bad news for upwards of a dozen Chinese financial institutions, which issued more than RMB 20 billion ($2.8 billion) in loans backed by the fool’s gold to the company over the last five years. 

Asked by Caixin if the pledged gold was fake, Kingold chairman Jia Zhihong replied: “How could it be fake if insurance companies agreed to cover it?” 

Disbelief is understandable, considering the size of the potential fraud. That 83 ton cache would be equivalent to 22% of the Middle Kingdom’s annual output and nearly 5% of its gold reserve as of last year. 
_
jog on
duc


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Gold futures are pumping: https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-06-...5-year-high-as-bulls-hit-the-accelerator.html



https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html


----------



## rederob

As @Chronos-Plutus has noted, "futures" are now pushing POG into +$1800 territory.
In keeping with that sentiment, the question mark I posed yesterday has now been resolved:


We just need spot prices to jump the $1800 hurdle so this bull market can advance more strongly.  I say that because in the above chart the "purple" zone is the upper band of the bull trend channel from its low point in 2015, and prices have not yet moved into it.
On the cautious side, last night's move was hardly "decisive:"  it was less than a percentage point rise.  We need some decent follow through on strong volumes to clear the next hurdle.  Right now that's not happening.


----------



## Joules MM1

nearterm, xauusd on a very clean set of sells


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> nearterm, xauusd on a very clean set of sells



price hit the uptrend line and stopped selling .....that's wot ya call bullish

if the line gets retested and fails that'll attract sell side liquidity again, not a trend swing but lower lows


----------



## rederob

Just for fun I am punting on hitting the below target next week:


@Joules MM1: typically the big price movements occur between 8pm and midnight Perth time.  Prior to that volumes tend to be too weak to precipitate anything major.


----------



## Rosscoe62

1800+ on the GCQ20 hit after a period of consolidation.

Spot price fast approaching 1800.

I’m back in holding 5 gold players, two have been mid term holds bought back in April if my memory serves me correctly. Another 3 picked up after a sell off weeks ago.

It’s now looking quite bullish, hopefully gold can hold 1800 short term, consolidate and continue to accelerate. The current climate certainly is favouring for this to happen.

Nice analysis above Rederob.

Well noted Chronos-Plutus ....

Onwards & upwards

https://www.barchart.com/futures/qu...V&sym=GCQ20&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100


----------



## rederob

Getting close the the $1800 hurdle:


There has been some discussion in this thread about gold's price performance relative to silver.  Had one bought into equal shares of gold and silver at March's low point for these respective metals, today your silver investment would have increased by over 40 basis points to gold's 20 basis points.  However, below I have removed the "cherry picking" effect to show the silver case continues to run true:


----------



## rederob




----------



## rederob

*Ta da...*
**


----------



## explod

And after that Rederob comes DE DUM,

Good break out this evening.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> @gartley - Here's how I see the wave count work better (my count is *golden*):
> 
> 
> My view is that the count window in your chart is time constrained and the impulse waves are therefore not properly accounted for.
> Underlying my count is the preferred trend channel I use to preempt future prices.  I place wave *3* terminating in the plus$1800 window which I have shaded, above.



Back on 21 May I plotted an alternative Elliott Wave count because I could not see the technical correction panning out as some others had described. 
I definitely got the timing wrong and am happy about that as there is nothing better than long stints of consolidation to continue a bull market trend.
But on topic:  "where is it heading?"
My sense is that POG is likely to spend a month or two consolidating in the $1800s, with a probable short term retrace below.
With over 5 months to go before year's end it is not far fetched to see 2021 kicking POG off with a "2" in front of three zeroes.
Trend-wise POG is now in the upper band of its longer term channel.  This channel's window does not contain POG at $2000 from January 2021.
The bandwidth of this longer term channel is, however, some $500 so a $1500 end of year close is not out of the ball park.
So, in the chart below I have run both the long-term and short-term trend channels, and you can see the end-2020 results also do not *YET *show a plus$2000 figure from 2021.
I will not be surprised to see the short-term trend kicking higher in coming months and the $2000 window opening.


----------



## rederob

That pot of gold is looking good:


----------



## noirua

This broadcast is very much UK based. However, it has some interesting comments about gold and gold shares. Golden Prospects LSE:GPM GPSS - Condor Gold LSE:CNR  - Caribbean LSE:CIHL - Orisur LSE:OMI - Watchstone LSE:WTG - Tesla TSLA - Google GOOG ( Alphabet Inc ) - Boohoo LSE:BOO - REA Holding LSE:REA


----------



## rederob

Over recent week we have seen comparatively long periods of price consolidation within a narrow range, followed by price rises of varying magnitude.
That pattern was broken overnight with slight dip in price.
Currently we are nearing another "buy" signal based on the pattern I have recently been posting:


Should we get a dip to near-term support I will definitely be adding to several of my gold equities.
Company reporting periods are not far away and most of the gold producers are likely to shine.


----------



## rederob

I have charted the last month's price action in a way to look like sheet music for gold bugs.
The buy signal in my previous chart got hit but, alas, "above the line:"


What is not immediately obvious is that from left to right we cover an $80+ range in 30 days.
What's nice to *not *see is the markets raving about gold, as despite being at 8 year record highs its incremental daily movements have been relatively subdued, as reflected in a steady day to day trading volume pattern.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> I have charted the last month's price action in a way to look like sheet music for gold bugs.
> The buy signal in my previous chart got hit but, alas, "above the line:"
> 
> 
> What is not immediately obvious is that from left to right we cover an $80+ range in 30 days.
> What's nice to *not *see is the markets raving about gold, as despite being at 8 year record highs its incremental daily movements have been relatively subdued, as reflected in a steady day to day trading volume pattern.



Excellent comment @rederob .

If Gold goes, we will be down to using Entrenching Tools as the safest investment looking northwards on the Bruce Highway.

gg


----------



## frugal.rock

l now be following this thread....


----------



## wayneL

frugal.rock said:


> l now be following this thread....



I think I would be watching silver


----------



## explod

wayneL said:


> I think I would be watching silver



I do and up almost 6% for today, gold off to the races also.

Just love my silver coin collection.


----------



## Rosscoe62

It’s safe to say that both gold and silver are looking very bullish.

The Euro stimulus package announced yesterday has given the precious metals futures a decent shot in the arm.

This is just the beginning however I think we’ll see a decent rush with similar stimulus packages to be announced in months ahead particularly leading up to the US election.

The gold miners will have a good day ahead as the futures have now broken 1840.

Where are we heading? I don’t think 2000 is out of the question by year’s end.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/qu...T&sym=GCQ20&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Rosscoe62 said:


> It’s safe to say that both gold and silver are looking very bullish.
> 
> The Euro stimulus package announced yesterday has given the precious metals futures a decent shot in the arm.
> 
> This is just the beginning however I think we’ll see a decent rush with similar stimulus packages to be announced in months ahead particularly leading up to the US election.
> 
> The gold miners will have a good day ahead as the futures have now broken 1840.
> 
> Where are we heading? I don’t think 2000 is out of the question by year’s end.
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/futures/qu...T&sym=GCQ20&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100



One has to ask oneself, if one were living in the Middle Ages and there was a Plague, what commodities would increase in value?

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> One has to ask oneself, if one were living in the Middle Ages and there was a Plague, what commodities would increase in value?
> 
> gg



Food?
Especially pet food:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Food?
> Especially pet food:



Touché

gg


----------



## rederob

Gold is currently over-extended and due for a pullback after a strong run over the month:


----------



## rederob

A month ago I played with Elliott Wave counts.
Here's my take on what has happened since then:


Irrespective of any technical mistakes above, POG has remained true to its bullishness.
My hope is that in the next month I can add to some gold equities using the "Buy" signal pattern described over recent weeks.  However, unless the TSI is "below the line" then I will let what I hold continue to ride the bull.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> A month ago I played with Elliott Wave counts.
> Here's my take on what has happened since then:
> 
> 
> Irrespective of any technical mistakes above, POG has remained true to its bullishness.
> My hope is that in the next month I can add to some gold equities using the "Buy" signal pattern described over recent weeks.  However, unless the TSI is "below the line" then I will let what I hold continue to ride the bull.



Thanks @rederob . 

You are on the button with this chart. Excellent analysis and plan.

gg


----------



## Chronos-Plutus




----------



## IFocus

rederob said:


> A month ago I played with Elliott Wave counts.
> Here's my take on what has happened since then:
> 
> 
> Irrespective of any technical mistakes above, POG has remained true to its bullishness.
> My hope is that in the next month I can add to some gold equities using the "Buy" signal pattern described over recent weeks.  However, unless the TSI is "below the line" then I will let what I hold continue to ride the bull.




A quick look at the wave count on your chart wave 5 is wave 3 and at the bottom of wave 3 is wave 2 that fits with the law of alternation, waves 3 and 4 cannot be lower than wave 1......having said that others here will know better. 

Either way solid uptrend.


----------



## explod

In my view over the years gold (and silver) has been very manipulated. However with the uncertainties of the market and the imposition of massive debts to hold things together the cat is now getting out of the bag and the commercial shorts burning.

There are moves to back the Euro with gold and the huge recent acquisition of gold by China would indicate they will too.

We are hitting an all time high (In fact we are over it on the MONTHY chart US) And the Aussie has been well above it for some months now.

Charts  are one thing but I look harder at the fundamentals. Sentiment is next and that is only just hitting general news.  In my view gold will soon take peoples breath away and really shoot up.

Just my 12 pence so DYOR

Oh, and twelve pence was an old shilling (now 10 cents), now worth upwards of $5 today


----------



## rederob

IFocus said:


> A quick look at the wave count on your chart wave 5 is wave 3 and at the bottom of wave 3 is wave 2 that fits with the law of alternation, waves 3 and 4 cannot be lower than wave 1......having said that others here will know better.
> 
> Either way solid uptrend.



The *basics *only require that from 1 to 2 is lower, 2 to 3 higher, 3 to 4 lower, and 4 to 5 higher, all within a continuing trend. 
Other people with expertise are most welcome to comment.
I found the exercise tricky given that there were 12 subwaves before the high at wave 1 was topped; in other words, a long period of consolidation.  
I countered that issue by the fact that although there were not higher highs, there were higher lows.

My chart reference source has been *Goldcharts *and I know different companies have different closing prices.  That said, according to my reference source yesterday's closing price of $1900.60 was the highest ever, beating the 5 September 2011 price by exactly one dollar.  
The next record to beat is 6 September's intraday high of $1920.94.
So now we are off to the races!


----------



## tinhat

Gold is touching upon all time highs. It might want to retrace from here. It might want to move sideways with a few false starts at breaking over US$1900. It might keep rocketing up. Regardless it will keep movin up over the medium term IMHO. It's not so much that gold is going up but that the $USD is going down. I can't see what is going to stop the $USD from depreciating over the medium term. If anyone has contrary views about the $USD then I would be interested to hear.


----------



## Telamelo

Only a matter of time Gold will hit US$2000 imo and along with that Silver rocketing higher (perhaps next silver short-term price target US$26 imo) as currently around US$23.

Cheers tela


----------



## NoFOMO

I produce my own data sheets using the CBOE options gamma data, same data that feeds all of the indicators you find on publice/paid platforms. 
Instead of looking at individual stocks, ETFs or futures I collate heavily option traded ones from a sector, weight them on volume and come up with much clearer(for the experienced) entry signal for myself. Exit is a personal decision driven by my trade size, account health and specific instrument.

Red GLD, this is a US ETF of bullion
Purple buying, long v short, or strength. Above the trend is very position buying.
Green is gamma, or oversold undersold
Yellow is buying/gamma which eccentuates opportunity



Red GDX, this is a US ETF of miners
Purple buying, long v short, or strength. Above the trend is very position buying.
Green is gamma, or oversold undersold
Yellow is buying/gamma which eccentuates opportunity



I also produce a pretty accurate stock market crash or hedging data set. It's correct 90%, historically, and the 10% error just means hedging drag rather than split potfolio.

If anyone wants more on gold historically using my data, no advice given, let me know and I will clean up a spread sheet to share


----------



## rederob

No sign of a retrace so far this morning:


Here's the history.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold stocks just snuck up to be over 10% of my Super (Assets + Cash), having been less than 5% in February 2020, and I haven't really bought since April apart from a few speccies. 

Gold certainly has legs.

gg


----------



## NoFOMO

The market thinks higher
The best gold guys/gals think there's too many in the trade. COT says the same
I never listen, I just follow my data. Soon as you listen to someone you suffer from confirmation bais.
It is at a Fib and resistance, previous high
I just hedge for a bit of bounce retracement risk
The MM(market makers) have to delta hedge which will cause at least a small distribution I would think, when that starts and finishes nobody knows.
Data talks
Gold data says its sailing up
Silver says retrace


Copper says go


----------



## wayneL

Anyway you look at this, retracements notwithstanding, PMs are going to go a LOT higher IMVHO.

It's not just the proflicacy of Treasuries and Central banks, and the stated intention to create higher inflation (temporarily they reckon), there is the geopolitical situation and the potential use of gold in the coming currency wars.

I think upside over the medium term to ~$5,000 is a no-brainer, but then again there is Rickard's hypothesis of $10,000 gold.


----------



## NoFOMO

We can only hope for us long the commodities that you guys are right ! You have to love being on a ride rather than watching


----------



## Dona Ferentes

NoFOMO said:


> The market thinks higher
> The best gold guys/gals think there's too many in the trade. COT says the same
> I never listen, I just follow my data. Soon as you listen to someone you suffer from confirmation bais.
> 
> ...Data talks
> Gold data says its sailing up
> Silver says retrace




*“One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible.”*
_Paul Tudor-Jones_*.*


----------



## NoFOMO

Sorry this is copper


----------



## NoFOMO

c the yellow buying/gamma, it's ready to go for my eyes


----------



## rederob

A rather crazy 6 trading days for gold, with another $30 added today:


The rule for gold is taking the stairs up and the elevator down.
I have no idea when these stairs reach the top floor, but am reasonably sure a new level will be added next year.


----------



## rederob

Within the past 20 minutes gold dropped $18 in a 10 minute stimt, so maybe someone is pressing all the elevator buttons:


Clearly gold is already heavily over-extended, having obliterated the upper band of an already optimistic trend channel.
I will be very happy to see gold back into the $1800s for much needed consolidation, but there could be a lot of punters worried about missing the boat, and keeping the price unsustainably higher for longer.


----------



## wayneL

Just FYI

https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...s largest,could lose its London accreditation

*Two of the world's biggest banks blacklist Perth Mint*


Angus GriggNational affairs correspondent
Jul 27, 2020 – 12.00am

Two of the world's largest banks, HSBC and JPMorgan, have stopped buying gold from the Perth Mint, citing potential damage to their reputation and concerns the government-owned refiner could lose its London accreditation.

The black ban follows revelations in _The Australian Financial Review _that the mint was buying up to $200 million of gold a year from a convicted killer in Papua New Guinea and that child labour and toxic mercury were present in its supply chain.

In response, the London Bullion Market Association, the world's largest precious metals exchange, said it was reviewing Perth Mint's ethical sourcing accreditation.



Children often work with their families mining gold in PNG. supplied

The investigation by the LBMA, which said it was taking the revelations "very seriously", has seen HSBC suspend purchases of 400 ounce gold bars and the smaller 1kg bars from the mint. JPMorgan has suspended purchases of the 1kg bars.

The mint, which is owned and guaranteed by the WA government, is the largest refiner of newly mined gold in the world.,.......


----------



## wayneL

This should probably be in trading systems and strategies but I have found that fadng The Kouk has been a profitable strategy.

Very strong buy signal here


----------



## explod

wayneL said:


> This should probably be in trading systems and strategies but I have found that fadng The Kouk has been a profitable strategy.
> 
> Very strong buy signal here




That is just a blank page to the sheeple. It's massively growing debt and unbacked money printing.

Gold now at an all time high is going to fly up from here.

Just my humble view.


----------



## wayneL

explod said:


> That is just a blank page to the sheeple. It's massively growing debt and unbacked money printing.
> 
> Gold now at an all time high is going to fly up from here.
> 
> Just my humble view.



Enter, FOMO.


----------



## Rosscoe62

I’m a TA trader so let the charts do the talking.

Found this link interesting -



Gold has well & truly over extended itself and FOMO currently will only push the price higher short term.


----------



## wayneL

Rosscoe62 said:


> I’m a TA trader so let the charts do the talking.
> 
> Found this link interesting -
> 
> 
> 
> Gold has well & truly over extended itself and FOMO currently will only push the price higher short term.




Define overextended, especially in terms of DXY.

(Retracements notwithstanding)


----------



## Rosscoe62

wayneL said:


> Define overextended, especially in terms of DXY.




Wayne, I’m with you not against you. The DXY is weak and becoming weaker! 

The Gold index is very hot! FOMO is kicking in however one would think a retracement has to follow at some stage!

It’s overextended itself with the very strong rally up in an extremely short period of time!

A very, very quick and decisive movement Up!

Who knows when it will retrace but it will retrace, has too  ....

The trend is firmly established & looking sensational!

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GCQ20/opinion

BTW - I’m holding my 8 gold players.


----------



## explod

Rosscoe62 said:


> Wayne, I’m with you not against you. The DXY is weak and becoming weaker!
> 
> The Gold index is very hot! FOMO is kicking in however one would think a retracement has to follow at some stage!
> 
> It’s overextended itself with the very strong rally up in an extremely short period of time!
> 
> A very, very quick and decisive movement Up!
> 
> Who knows when it will retrace but it will retrace, has too  ....
> 
> The trend is firmly established & looking sensational!
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GCQ20/opinion
> 
> BTW - I’m holding my 8 gold players.



Why does it (have too).  This uptrend on historical's is just at the start of the rise on past percentage terms.  

As a safetynet its about the only way at the moment to safeguard the wallet and more and more people are only just starting to realise that.


----------



## over9k

The U.S economy is not going to recover like it was thought the reopenings etc would make it because people are now at the point of voluntarily isolating etc.

This is only now just properly being realised. I called a position into "stay at home tech" way back in may for precisely this reason.

The only thing I kick myself for not doing is buying some physical gold as well as a couple of gold miners.

Things are only going to get worse as we now move into winter. This rally has months of legs yet.


----------



## Rosscoe62

explod said:


> Why does it (have too). This uptrend on historical's is just at the start of the rise on past percentage terms.




Deary me, a retracement can be a shallow one!

Nothing ever goes up in a straight line indefinitely  ....

I’m not expecting this to be a deep pullback. With the sudden surge in the gold price, it would be healthy to retrace a little under current conditions.

Again, to reiterate I’m a holder of 8 gold players. I’m not selling unless the charting supports a major reversal to the downside. I’m absolutely loving this rally and believe in the short-mid term it is sustainable.

My trailing stops have been increased dramatically in recent weeks.

I am NOT in agreeance with the link I posted above, it was used as another example of a point of view.

over9k, I’m with you ....

Explod, like you, I have 4 gold players in the yearly comp.

Onwards & upwards we go.


----------



## over9k

Yeah I have two miners & physical ETF. I'm expecting it to keep rallying into next year. Probably sell around feb-march.

It's rallied another almost 1% in after-hours too.


----------



## rederob

Gold still on a bender this morning:



I went through the trend for the bull run from 2009 to 2011: based on similar patterns this retrace is likely to be well over $100 and run up to 3 weeks. 
What makes 2020 different from 2009 is that presently the economic carnage is still developing, whereas previously we were mopping up the fallout.
There were also no global superpower tensions 10 years ago.


----------



## rederob

POG just smashed through $1980 as I was about to post and lost $10 in the next minute.  Is the retracement about to happen?


Only a mad person would suggest $2000 will be hit today or tomorrow.  But this price rise is truly loony tunes and nothing seems off the table.
(I have spent 10 minutes on a simple post because the price action is beyond belief and I have to keep adjusting the prices being hit.)


----------



## rederob

True to form, retracement is now in play, and this is frighteningly hard and fast ($37 in 15 minutes and falling...):


Note massive volumes at selldown.  Big profits are being made!


----------



## wayneL

It was was always gonna be a crush for the exit, I think we all knew that.

For us HODLers, there is the "buy the dips" strategy. After a nice retracement pattern I still have some dry powder.


----------



## rederob

My last post in this thread today unless something more exciting comes up.


POG under $1800 will see me back buying some gold producers again.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> Just FYI
> 
> https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/two-of-the-world-s-biggest-banks-blacklist-perth-mint-20200724-p55f3v#:~:text=Two of the world's largest,could lose its London accreditation
> 
> *Two of the world's biggest banks blacklist Perth Mint*
> 
> 
> Angus GriggNational affairs correspondent
> Jul 27, 2020 – 12.00am
> 
> Two of the world's largest banks, HSBC and JPMorgan, have stopped buying gold from the Perth Mint, citing potential damage to their reputation and concerns the government-owned refiner could lose its London accreditation.
> 
> The black ban follows revelations in _The Australian Financial Review _that the mint was buying up to $200 million of gold a year from a convicted killer in Papua New Guinea and that child labour and toxic mercury were present in its supply chain.
> 
> In response, the London Bullion Market Association, the world's largest precious metals exchange, said it was reviewing Perth Mint's ethical sourcing accreditation.
> 
> 
> 
> Children often work with their families mining gold in PNG. supplied
> 
> The investigation by the LBMA, which said it was taking the revelations "very seriously", has seen HSBC suspend purchases of 400 ounce gold bars and the smaller 1kg bars from the mint. JPMorgan has suspended purchases of the 1kg bars.
> 
> The mint, which is owned and guaranteed by the WA government, is the largest refiner of newly mined gold in the world.,.......




*JP Morgan involved in racketeering, in the precious metals markets, alleged by DOJ.*

"Three JPMorgan traders were charged with market manipulation by the US Department of Justice on Monday.

The unsealed indictment alleges a racketeering conspiracy among one former and two current precious-metals traders at JPMorgan. The scheme involved trades of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from 2008 to 2016, according to the Department of Justice."

(https://markets.businessinsider.com...onspiracy-racketeering-doj-2019-9-1028527742#)


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> Just FYI
> 
> https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/two-of-the-world-s-biggest-banks-blacklist-perth-mint-20200724-p55f3v#:~:text=Two of the world's largest,could lose its London accreditation
> 
> *Two of the world's biggest banks blacklist Perth Mint*
> 
> 
> Angus GriggNational affairs correspondent
> Jul 27, 2020 – 12.00am
> 
> Two of the world's largest banks, HSBC and JPMorgan, have stopped buying gold from the Perth Mint, citing potential damage to their reputation and concerns the government-owned refiner could lose its London accreditation.
> 
> The black ban follows revelations in _The Australian Financial Review _that the mint was buying up to $200 million of gold a year from a convicted killer in Papua New Guinea and that child labour and toxic mercury were present in its supply chain.
> 
> In response, the London Bullion Market Association, the world's largest precious metals exchange, said it was reviewing Perth Mint's ethical sourcing accreditation.
> 
> 
> 
> Children often work with their families mining gold in PNG. supplied
> 
> The investigation by the LBMA, which said it was taking the revelations "very seriously", has seen HSBC suspend purchases of 400 ounce gold bars and the smaller 1kg bars from the mint. JPMorgan has suspended purchases of the 1kg bars.
> 
> The mint, which is owned and guaranteed by the WA government, is the largest refiner of newly mined gold in the world.,.......




HSBC has also been under investigation for rigging precious metal markets:

*"Beleaguered HSBC faces new controversy as it is named among 10 banks under investigation in US for rigging precious metal markets"*

*https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...stigation-rigging-precious-metal-markets.html*


*Nothing like catching them in the act. Now is the perfect time for the DOJ and regulators to monitor these bullion banks!*


----------



## wayneL

I think we all had our suspicions, CP.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> I think we all had our suspicions, CP.




JP Morgan on racketeering charges; that is massive.

I know Jamie Dimon likes to eat Greek food; don't think they will be serving Greek food in jail for him; if he is tied to sanctioning the precious metal racketeering within his bank by the DOJ.


----------



## wayneL

Chronos-Plutus said:


> JP Morgan on racketeering charges; that is massive.
> 
> I know Jamie Dimon likes to eat Greek food; don't think they will be serving Greek food in jail for him; if he is tied to sanctioning the precious metal racketeering within his bank by the DOJ.




"Greek" may be emblematic of his experiences from now on.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> "Greek" may be emblematic of his experiences from now on.




He was in a Greek restaurant, celebrating his birthday, when he received a phone call, when the panic set in during the last GFC. That is how I know that he likes Greek food, haha.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> "Greek" may be emblematic of his experiences from now on.




I will just make one more comment on the JP Morgan precious metal racketeering charges from the DOJ.

This may lead to a global class action lawsuit against JP Morgan from all the shareholders that held precious metal equities/stocks and who have lost money from the alleged criminal activities.

Also Jamie Dimon would be the ultimate trophy scalp for the FBI and DOJ. He can't claim he didn't know it was happening when his entity was charged by the DOJ with precious metal racketeering last year.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Nice pull back with gold and silver: I will be buying more precious metals and precious metal producing equities tomorrow.


----------



## over9k

Pullback? What pullback? 

Gold's screaming. Looking like cracking 2k by the end of the week.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

over9k said:


> Pullback? What pullback?
> 
> Gold's screaming. Looking like cracking 2k by the end of the week.




There was a pullback in the spot price, looks to be bouncing back quickly with gold. Silver still down off its highs.

I will buy some more gold and silver when our markets in Australia open.

I will also buy some more precious metal producing equities/stocks.


----------



## over9k

Yeah looks like I might have timed my pivot beautifully. But it's only been a few days so we'll see.


----------



## NoFOMO

Gold Long Short Gamma
Bullion top chart
Miners bottom chart
Red Price
Purple buying, long v short, or strength. Above the trend is very position buying.
Green is gamma, or oversold undersold
Yellow is buying/gamma which eccentuates opportunity


----------



## rederob

NoFOMO said:


> View attachment 106602



Thank you for posting POG's intensive care charts.
This is an atypical case of *redline fever*.
The patient's tachycardia has been suppressed for the time being, although remnant atrial fibrillation remains a concern.
Medication is taking a tad longer to kick in than expected due to resurgent FOMO.  Pulse currently at 1965 dollars per ounce and stable.
Nurse will check progress and report again soon.


----------



## NoFOMO

Earnings for all the big US miners from tonight to the 7.08
CCJ Uranium Miner drop 10% last night as earnings included guidance, briefly, that very difficult in Covid19 times.
Gold miners suffer the same work force
So buyer beware what happens this week in the Gold Miners


----------



## rederob

Big picture:



*"Record inflows into gold-backed ETFs offset weakness in other sectors, with consumer demand hit by COVID-19*
With Q2 gold demand down 11% y-o-y to 1,015.7t, demand for the first half year was 6% weaker at 2,076t. The COVID-19 pandemic was again the main influence on the gold market in Q2, severely curtailing consumer demand while providing support for investment. The global response to the pandemic by central banks and governments, in the form of rate cuts and massive liquidity injections, fuelled record flows of 734t into gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs). These flows helped lift the gold price, which gained 17% in US dollar terms over the first half, hitting record highs in many other currencies.

Total bar and coin investment weakened sharply in Q2, leading to a 17% y-o-y decline in H1 demand to 396.7t. This sector of investment saw a clear East/West divergence in investor behaviour, with most markets across Asia and the Middle East seeing a slowdown in investment, while Western investors increased demand.

H1 jewellery demand slumped 46% y-o-y to 572t as markets remained in lockdown and consumers were deterred by the high price and a squeeze on disposable income. Similar factors were behind a 13% fall in gold used in technology to 140t in H1, as end-user demand for electronics collapsed.

Central bank buying slowed again in Q2, although the comparison is with a record Q2 2019. The sector added a net 233t of gold in H1. The supply of gold was also impacted by the pandemic, falling 6% to 2,192t as both mine production and recycling were affected by lockdown restrictions."


----------



## rederob

Highest ever intraday price recently hit - a few pennies over $1984:


Although POG has dipped almost $15 since then, it had risen by over $45 in the past 15 hours.
With these levels of intraday movement, $2000/oz is an any day chance now.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Highest ever intraday price recently hit - a few pennies over $1984:
> 
> 
> Although POG has dipped almost $15 since then, it had risen by over $45 in the past 15 hours.
> With these levels of intraday movement, $2000/oz is an any day chance now.



Too right @rederob 

I wouldn't be surprised if some big holders played around with the price around $2000 e.g. Saudis to make a market for themselves between here and $2050.

gg


----------



## rederob

Will it be happy birthday today for POG today?


Turning *2* soon.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Great image:


https://grrrgraphics.com/


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> Turning *2* soon.



It was indeed soon:
	

		
			
		

		
	



Parabolic rises do not last, but at least we gold bugs can take comfort that $2000/oz was reached.
There are no certainties in the stock market, just probabilities. I rejoined ASF about 19 months ago to post principally on gold as the ingredients looked right for another bull run.  
The question now is at what point is it really at?
My view is that while Trump is in office a significant amount of global disharmony will prevail, and his actions on COVID will further weaken the US economy and drive up debt.  Until there is some semblance of widespread international recovery I cannot see gold weakening beyond a standard retrace, which I put to about $1800.


----------



## rederob

This chart just shows how crazy the FOMOers get:


What gets really interesting from now on is the flow on effect to miners/producers.  Small percentage gains in POG are going to be significant drivers of profitability (ie. a one percent rise in POG now is around 60% more than a year ago).


----------



## explod

It won't retrace, we are heading for an economic reset around the globe.

Debt and astronomical unbacked money creation. Has little to do with Trump and was happening prior to the virus also.

It's just the beginning and I have mentioned here before it's going to take peoples breath away...and we are not there yet.  The  predictions of people like Riccards of $10,000 plus is coming. 

Sentiment has not kicked in yet, there is a huge shortage available for physical demand and as the percentage of people grow to protect their portfolios the price will accelerate.

Love my silver coins.


----------



## Rosscoe62

Yes, the stars are beautifully aligned for gold to now continue on its merry run. Amazing to think we have broken the 2000 milestone so quickly. I thought a few months back that sort of target would have be made much later this year.

The weakening DXY is certainly playing into gold’s hands. But all those points made by Rederob above are on the “golden” money!

What point are we at? Great question but I’m tending to think 2500 is a slight possibility perhaps by year's end or early 2021 now. 

Leading into the US November Presidential election will only make gold more desirable. Stimulus, stimulus and more stimulus with a USD moving south, global uncertainty and a destructive virus that continues the unrest will only assist the gold futures to play out more positively. 

It’s not something that’s going to end anytime soon!

https://www.barchart.com/story/futu...ll-time-high-on-the-outlook-for-more-stimulus


----------



## rederob

I was just revising my Elliott Wave chart to reflect this latest impulse, to show a downleg was underway.
Thwarted by more madness:


When will it end?


----------



## rederob

I can't even fit $2000/oz onto the chart anymore!
Seems every 30 minutes hits a new all time high for POG.


My last post today - having a bex and a good lie down to get over the excitement.


----------



## explod

This futures chart I find good Red. I used to be able to post with an online device but off my mobile fed laptop cannot. Here's the link for a try.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5

Gold is now in a bull trend and there is not much to stop it going hell bent now. Financial issues and lack of sufficient supply to meet the growing demand.


----------



## rederob

Further increases in price overnight to another record high before tailing off in recent hours:


Near-term support is $1978, but rather weak given what we know about retraces.  Next level is pegged around $1810, so that's a big come down if it happens.
I defer to precedents when we reach stages like this.  That tells me this gold bull still has years to run.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


>



A month ago I was heralding the probable breakthrough of $1800 resistance and wondered what algorithms would do, given there was only blue sky ahead.
That has since been answered, with $2000 being absolutely smashed through, and today POG briefly hitting $2075 before taking another breather:


On a separate front, few gold producers are reacting to POG's stellar rise, but I expect this to change once most post their results over the coming month.


----------



## rederob

Below is POG's 10-year track record: a gold medal run to $2020 olympics and beyond:


Just remember that from the August 2011 record high to end December - 4 month - gold tumbled almost $400.  
So while it's nice to see gold rocketing higher, the scale of its retrace can be equally devastating.
I personally can't see such a catastrophic decline this time around because in 2011 we were several years past the worst, while right now we remain in the thick of it, economically speaking.


----------



## over9k

Worth noting the correlation between the USD:AUD and the gold price too. 

In AUD, gold hasn't actually changed that much. The USD has just fallen off a cliff.


----------



## Rosscoe62

A healthy retracement in the gold futures with the news below & a bounce in the USD.Further gold buying opportunities not that far away again, it’s a waiting game - patience x patience .....

https://www.barchart.com/story/futu...expected-economic-data-spark-long-liquidation


----------



## Telamelo

Rosscoe62 said:


> A healthy retracement in the gold futures with the news below & a bounce in the USD.Further gold buying opportunities not that far away again, it’s a waiting game - patience x patience .....
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/story/futu...expected-economic-data-spark-long-liquidation



USD gold price down $35 to $2035 however because of a .007 drop in AUD against USD, AUD gold price is only down 18cents closing at $2843.80 AUD

IMO a good healthy retrace in the USD gold price. Whether it falls further off recent highs or not, I believe we will see a considerably higher gold price in the future.

Also Aussie gold miners have been treading water over the last few days, IMO waiting for some pull back after the spectacular rise over the last 2 weeks. However the AUD gold price holding the line overnight is very positive for them and their respective bottom lines.

Aussie gold producers are very profitable at these current record gold prices!

Cheers tela


----------



## rederob

Rosscoe62 said:


> A healthy retracement in the gold futures with the news below & a bounce in the USD.Further gold buying opportunities not that far away again, it’s a waiting game - patience x patience .....



Agreed - patience is now more important than ever, as the ride down might cause many to jump ship:


During the past 24 hours POG dipped $60 below its $2075 record high, before rallying in the last 3 hours prior to closing the week a shade under $2035.
My takeaway from the week's action is that irrespective of the retrace that's underway, 2021 will close out with a significantly higher record price than we just achieved.


----------



## over9k

Yeah there's seasonality to consider - AU's going into summer (meaning more economic activity) and US is going into winter (meaning the opposite).

If nothing changes, I'm expecting the AUD to hit close to 90c by end of year. The question is whether gold runs more/as a net positive against it.

If you have time on your side then you can play the market(s) and only cash your USD holdings out when the exchange rate drops back down but that's not going to be for a while yet. Meanwhile, here I am having all my U.S denominated gains KO'd by the exchange rate movement. This makes me pretty flat if I was to convert back now, but I'm in for the long term, so not so much of an issue.

I'll see if my terminal allows me to plot the AUD against the gold spot price (or just gold in AUD). Will update when I've got something.


----------



## rederob

over9k said:


> Yeah there's seasonality to consider - AU's going into summer (meaning more economic activity) and US is going into winter (meaning the opposite).
> 
> If nothing changes, I'm expecting the AUD to hit close to 90c by end of year. The question is whether gold runs more/as a net positive against it.
> 
> If you have time on your side then you can play the market(s) and only cash your USD holdings out when the exchange rate drops back down but that's not going to be for a while yet. Meanwhile, here I am having all my U.S denominated gains KO'd by the exchange rate movement. This makes me pretty flat if I was to convert back now, but I'm in for the long term, so not so much of an issue.
> 
> I'll see if my terminal allows me to plot the AUD against the gold spot price (or just gold in AUD). Will update when I've got something.



This chart covering the past 10 years might be helpful:


----------



## over9k

Here we go:


GOLD australia (an etf that sells tenths of an ounce) vs GLD united states (which is also an etf that sells in tenths).

Exchange rate difference in the past 3 months:




AUD's pulled 13% against the USD but there's only a 10 percentage point difference in the price.

1/1.13=0.88

0.88*1.18=1.04

vs

1/1=1

1*1.09=1.09


Significantly better off holding it in AUD


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

An interesting read:

*"There appears to be no way out for the bullion banks deteriorating $53bn short gold futures positions ($38bn net) on Comex. An earlier attempt between January and March to regain control over paper gold markets has backfired on the bullion banks."

"An awful lot of gold bulls are going to be disappointed when their unallocated bullion bank holdings turn to dust in the coming months — perhaps it’s a matter of a few weeks, perhaps only days — and synthetic ETFs will also blow up. The systemic demolition of paper gold and silver markets is a predictable catastrophe in the course of the collapse of fiat money’s purchasing power, for which the evidence is mounting. It is set to drive gold and silver much higher, or more correctly put, fiat currencies much lower."

(https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/bullion-banks-have-no-way-out-big-gold-shorts)
*


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Nice pullback with gold and silver prices; hopefully there are some bargains with some precious metal stocks tomorrow.


----------



## grah33

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Nice pullback with gold and silver prices; hopefully there are some bargains with some precious metal stocks tomorrow.





the gold miners went down with the gfc crash 07


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

grah33 said:


> the gold miners went down with the gfc crash 07




Sure they did. I still have plenty of cash on hand;* I am not going all in, nowhere near it.
*
The gold and silver stocks that I am looking at are:

- little to no debt
- have plenty of cash in the bank
- have a decent size ore reserve
- are in production or on a path to production

As for my current holdings, I am confident that they will make it through the volatility, if it comes. I am playing the long game; up to a decade; so happy to take a few positions now. If they get hit, I will have cash on hand to buy more at lower levels.


----------



## Rosscoe62

There it is!

This dip is a little more than shallow .... Where are the buyers? I think the 1850-1900 level or thereabouts is the support level ...

https://www.barchart.com/story/futu...ising-us-ppi-sparks-long-liquidation-pressure


https://www.barchart.com/futures/qu...)&sym=GCZ20&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100


----------



## over9k

Everyone are getting the jitters about the lack of action on stimulus. 

Futures are already very green after yesterday's bloodbath though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold is due for a correction. Every tinpot company with an ASX listing is pegging rubbish tips and doing a bloody webinar. 

Where the price goes is moot. Just go with it!

gg


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold is due for a correction. Every tinpot company with an ASX listing is pegging rubbish tips and doing a bloody webinar.
> 
> Where the price goes is moot. Just go with it!
> 
> gg




I am happy it has corrected, I can buy more gold and silver now. A cheaper price doesn't deter precious metal investors, it encourages them to just buy more than they otherwise would have.


----------



## over9k

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold is due for a correction. Every tinpot company with an ASX listing is pegging rubbish tips and doing a bloody webinar.
> 
> Where the price goes is moot. Just go with it!
> 
> gg



Yeah my DEG and MGV positions have taken it in the proverbial the last few days but they're also wildly volatile anyways. 

Like I said, everyone are getting the jitters and there appears to be no end in sight to the stimulus stalemate, which is only contributing to the jitters further. 

Gold was due for a pullback sometime though.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

I bought a few more shares in EVN and GOR today.

I will buy some more physical silver in the coming weeks.


----------



## wayneL

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am happy it has corrected, I can buy more gold and silver now. A cheaper price doesn't deter precious metal investors, it encourages them to just buy more than they otherwise would have.



Yes.

Like I've said before I have been buying little bits through this little parabolic trend, just in case this retracement never came. But now I have my ears pinned back... Not a buyer of more yet but looking for the point where I think it is time to smash it.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> Yes.
> 
> Like I've said before I have been buying little bits through this little parabolic trend, just in case this retracement never came. But now I have my ears pinned back... Not a buyer of more yet but looking for the point where I think it is time to smash it.




I will just keep buying into the pullback and correction in precious metal stocks and keep buying physical silver every few weeks.

I am not touching derivatives so I don't need to worry about the volatility or margin calls. I am playing the long game here.

And just make sure that I keep enough cash on hand to get through the rocky times ahead.


----------



## over9k

Same. I've rotated out of quite a few holdings lately. Sold gold off well over a week ago. 



We might have a bit of green tomorrow, but something tells me that friday's going to have a big selloff if there's no stimulus announcement. 

I'm mostly in ETF's now.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

over9k said:


> Yeah my DEG and MGV positions have taken it in the proverbial the last few days but they're also wildly volatile anyways.
> 
> Like I said, everyone are getting the jitters and there appears to be no end in sight to the stimulus stalemate, which is only contributing to the jitters further.
> 
> Gold was due for a pullback sometime though.





wayneL said:


> Yes.
> 
> Like I've said before I have been buying little bits through this little parabolic trend, just in case this retracement never came. But now I have my ears pinned back... Not a buyer of more yet but looking for the point where I think it is time to smash it.




I know how you both feel. I came late to penny gold stocks this time about, but the more I looked at it the more sleazy the operators became. 

Gold does make men and women go mad. No doubt in my mind. It is a marvellous metal. 

After my competition dart hit GED and it went from 2nd last to second place I was tempted to put a few kopeks on it. Thank gawd I held back and didn't. It's doing a raising I believe in a trading halt. As the song says " Easy come, Easy go ".

gg


----------



## wayneL

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I know how you both feel. I came late to penny gold stocks this time about, but the more I looked at it the more sleazy the operators became.
> 
> Gold does make men and women go mad. No doubt in my mind. It is a marvellous metal.
> 
> After my competition dart hit GED and it went from 2nd last to second place I was tempted to put a few kopeks on it. Thank gawd I held back and didn't. It's doing a raising I believe in a trading halt. As the song says " Easy come, Easy go ".
> 
> gg



I think ultimately, reality will verify our madness.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold is due for a correction.
> 
> .....rubbish tips ...



Good thinking, 99


----------



## over9k

Yeah, we have green futures after yesterday's bloodbath but something tells me the week isn't going to end on a high note if the stimulus logjam isn't broken.


----------



## peter2

So, I wasn't the only one buying gold producers today.

@Boggo   Lots of nice abc corrections in the gold stocks. 
Your MT predictor should be going crazy with them.


----------



## Boggo

peter2 said:


> ...
> @Boggo   Lots of nice abc corrections in the gold stocks.
> Your MT predictor should be going crazy with them.




Rather than scanning the lot regularly I tend to stick with a few that I "know".
EVN is one of those that I have some luck picking the turns and it has come up in the scanner as a prospect again.

EVN and the daily All Ords scanner below. (ignore the software date EVN top left - software issue)
I have also had a look at RSG, similiar pattern to EVN, rest I haven't looked at but generally 50% of them will be rubbish due pattern only without volume input.

(click to expand)


----------



## over9k

Prediction was correct - gold up a bit tonight. AUD pulled another ~0.25% against the USD though. 

Don't hold gold in USD!


----------



## explod

With news getting about over the weekend that Warren Buffet is favouring gold stock over banks tells me there should be a substantial jump in gold this week.

https://www.business-standard.com/a...-bank-shares-bets-on-gold-120081500639_1.html


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

explod said:


> With news getting about over the weekend that Warren Buffet is favouring gold stock over banks tells me there should be a substantial jump in gold this week.
> 
> https://www.business-standard.com/a...-bank-shares-bets-on-gold-120081500639_1.html



Although.

If everyone from Kalgoorlie to Kabul has read of WB's pick, as they have, the opposite may be true.

Either way, a good week to pick up the Grubs of Gold Street for traders.

gg


----------



## wayneL

explod said:


> With news getting about over the weekend that Warren Buffet is favouring gold stock over banks tells me there should be a substantial jump in gold this week.
> 
> https://www.business-standard.com/a...-bank-shares-bets-on-gold-120081500639_1.html



I have some concerns regarding his pick, however, with reference to Marin Katusa's negative swap thesis... especially in the current geopolitical climate.


----------



## SyBoo

explod said:


> With news getting about over the weekend that Warren Buffet is favouring gold stock over banks tells me there should be a substantial jump in gold this week.
> 
> https://www.business-standard.com/a...-bank-shares-bets-on-gold-120081500639_1.html




The article failed to mention that;  
"Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) bought $1.73 billion of Bank of America (BAC) stock from July 20 through July 30...."


----------



## qldfrog

SyBoo said:


> The article failed to mention that;
> "Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) bought $1.73 billion of Bank of America (BAC) stock from July 20 through July 30...."



Cheap bank stocks or gold when interest rate can only go up?
Looking ahead, the choice is clear
We can still have a gold surge in the coming weeks or on world events : Biden elected, war but medium term, it says sell on the economic outlook..
Anyone?


----------



## wayneL

qldfrog said:


> Cheap bank stocks or gold when interest rate can only go up?
> Looking ahead, the choice is clear
> We can still have a gold surge in the coming weeks or on world events : Biden elected, war but medium term, it says sell on the economic outlook..
> Anyone?



If Biden is elected, there will be an initial swoon, then everything with rip higher from even more unprecedented Money printing, including PMs and Crypto, IMO


----------



## noirua

*Don't Get Shaken Off the Raging Gold & Silver Bull Market*


----------



## noirua




----------



## noirua




----------



## noirua

SPROTT MONEY NEWS 30 October 2020: Https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Gold-and-Silver-Consolidate-Ahead-of-a-Long-Bull-Market-Weekly-Wrap-Up-October-30-2020


----------



## noirua




----------



## peter2

Where is the price of gold going?  I'd have to say, down. Certainly over the past three months. The daily chart is unsettling. The weekly chart remains bullish in the longer term.

I'm thinking that money that would normally go to gold may be going into bitcoin.

Edit: Has ripple just doubled in the last few days?


----------



## Trav.

I don't normally track the price of gold, but I am intrigued by what is happening and the impact to gold stocks that in most cases have hedged their sales months ahead but are getting hit like they are selling for the spot price (terminology might be a little dodgy as I am still learning)

So it appears that the $1800 level is a key support level and I will be watching to see if Gold rebounds.

Holding EVN and NCM who are suffering like most oz goldine


----------



## Trav.

Trav. said:


> that in most cases have hedged their sales months ahead




Just to add to this I looked up EVN's hedge as per below and the current gold price is $2,463 AUD which is significantly higher than the $1,877 AUD hedged amount ( 275,000oz )




Their Australian mines produced approx 143,383oz last quarter so* I am answering my own query here* as EVN only hedged 25,000oz per quarter, so they are exposed to the market fluctuations more than I thought for the rest of the gold produce and in this case approx 118,383oz.


----------



## frugal.rock

peter2 said:


> Edit: Has ripple just doubled in the last few days?



More than doubled.
	

		
			
		

		
	




Insto's and sophisticates have decided they want a bit of crypto.
(JP Morgan etc)

I see it as:
 if gold can hold at $1800 and crypto settles,  all is ok for now, but if immediate trend continues, ie, gold down and crypto up, then things need to be rethunk. 
Then theres oil to throw into the mix as well. A proper head bender.


----------



## frugal.rock

And just like that, an odd situation has emerged.
Gold stocks have come back today.
XGD up 2.7% and the largest positive indicie today.
Cryptocurrencies started getting dumped down last night and have continued that trend today.




The odd thing is, POG has been positive flat at a breath above $1800 while oil is up around 0.5%
and Aus bonds were down but the 1 year has closed at + 6.7% after being in negative territory.
I think the keyword is rotation...
I think we will see this run to safety push gold up again.
I think oil is about to tank again (back to $40), and I was going to sell Origin just before close today, but hoping the tide turns for that boat after open tomorrow...

Just assumptions from observations.


----------



## frugal.rock

Glad I didn't move to buy crypto....
Tanking big time.
How many people would have lost money again, or now become the new holders (investors lol) waiting for the next spike ?
POG up ~0.3% to $ 1812.6 US
Oil down 1.5%...
There will be a scramble tomorrow...


----------



## finicky

I don't understand it and I am not going to try. If something doesn't spark my interest I am not going to waste my limited time investigating it when I lack the aptitude anyway.

So from that lack of qualification I say, "might as well try to catch the wind". It's a Ponzi sceme for gen x, millennials and gen insane. Almost all people in my country town, I would venture, don't understand crypto, most people in Africa don't, but everyone everywhere would stoop for a 1/20th oz of gold and celebrate the find. Like Paul McCartney said, regarding I believe the offensive arriviste upstarts of Oasis, paraphrased, "It takes lot to become a real super group, good luck son"

I've seen comments that it's just as good as gold because the only value of gold is that someone else will buy it from you, it has neglible utility. Well a lot of knowledge skill and sweat goes into making gold and that is all captured in its refined substance. You might find a good coin in an attic or under the floor boards and be glad, there isnt any gladness in a unique code of 1s and 0s. Gold is for stupid people and there are a fkg lot of us. Anyway the crypto exchanges aren't even reliable, I can sell a gold oz on the local IGA notice board.
A hard hard time of zero bull**** is fast approaching and ethereum will be blasted to dust.


----------



## sptrawler

I have thought over my lifetime, gold is strong when uncertainty is high.


----------



## peter2

Transferring from gold-physical thread to this trading one.  Physical holders are all bulls. 

I'm comfortable looking for a long setup at this level 1750 - 1770. Price went through 200sma in Mar20 and rallied quickly. I'm hoping to see same thing at this level and will be looking for it on the 4hr chart. 

Get into it and I'm holding for $200 - $300 move. It may take me a couple of attempts using only $10-$20 risk. 

I was very tempted to buy into the BTC dip last week but very concerned by lack of security and won't hold a CFD for months.


----------



## qldfrog

peter2 said:


> Transferring from gold-physical thread to this trading one.  Physical holders are all bulls.
> 
> I'm comfortable looking for a long setup at this level 1750 - 1770. Price went through 200sma in Mar20 and rallied quickly. I'm hoping to see same thing at this level and will be looking for it on the 4hr chart.
> 
> Get into it and I'm holding for $200 - $300 move. It may take me a couple of attempts using only $10-$20 risk.
> 
> I was very tempted to buy into the BTC dip last week but very concerned by lack of security and won't hold a CFD for months.



I kept gold and even increased exposure yesterday, but noted today (in the US) BTC up 4.5% whereas all others are  in red from oil to gold and stocks


----------



## explod

Desperate times.  Purchased more SVL yesterday, the capping should break down soon IMHO, of course timing is hard to decide, just have to hang on to what you feel is safe in the longer term.

TRADING ALERT: Bullion Banks Using Today’s Orchestrated Takedown In Gold To Cover Shorts | King World News


----------



## sptrawler

explod said:


> Desperate times.  Purchased more SVL yesterday, the capping should break down soon IMHO, of course timing is hard to decide, just have to hang on to what you feel is safe in the longer term.
> 
> TRADING ALERT: Bullion Banks Using Today’s Orchestrated Takedown In Gold To Cover Shorts | King World News



If this issue with China goes pear shaped and ramps up, gold and silver may well be a safe haven for some currency hedging, the Aussie $ could get hammered in a major trade war with China.
Just my thoughts


----------



## explod

A considerable jump up in the gold price overnight.  It has broken above the down trend line from it's high in August last year of near US$2100.  Silver also rising well too.  Uncertainty in the markets will drive this in my view.

So an interesting start to 2021.  

Your SLV should do well today qldfrog


----------



## peter2

The gold price is now at a very interesting level. As you know I've been bullish gold for quite some time. I've taken some licks Aug - Nov20 but bought near the Nov low and still holding some of it. I may sell the remainder at this level and watch what happens to determine the next trade. It may be a short back down to 1890 or another long if price finds more demand here.


----------



## rederob

peter2 said:


> The gold price is now at a very interesting level. As you know I've been bullish gold for quite some time. I've taken some licks Aug - Nov20 but bought near the Nov low and still holding some of it. I may sell the remainder at this level and watch what happens to determine the next trade. It may be a short back down to 1890 or another long if price finds more demand here.
> 
> View attachment 117857



Gold was yesterday well into overbought territory and a correction was imminent.  Below is is a continuation of the chart I posted elsewhere on November 30 which proposed where gold might head:


	

		
			
		

		
	
Some think the big dipper overnight was US election-based.  POG was going to correct any day, and I rate it more as a coincidence.
We know Biden is going to raid Treasury to fund massive spending, so it could be a bit later than I proposed that POG is back over $2000.  But the longer this drags out the happier I will be as the base to greater higher needs a solid foundation.


----------



## frugal.rock

I suspect money is rotating out of gold and into crypto?. 

Crypto's have absolutely gone nuts, Bitcoin all time highs, Stellar tripling in a few days, ETH up over 100% also from a month or so ago etc.

Pick any crypto, it's behaved irrationally imo. (XRP Ripple not included, nuts anyway but setback by court case)

Any thoughts on this hypothesis @rederob 
Cheers.


----------



## againsthegrain

frugal.rock said:


> I suspect money is rotating out of gold and into crypto?.
> 
> Crypto's have absolutely gone nuts, Bitcoin all time highs, Stellar tripling in a few days, ETH up over 100% also from a month or so ago etc.
> 
> Pick any crypto, it's behaved irrationally imo. (XRP Ripple not included, nuts anyway but setback by court case)
> 
> Any thoughts on this hypothesis @rederob
> Cheers.




It definitely looks that way.  If it implodes big IF, or perhaps when. Then gold should run


----------



## barney

Gold approaching a 12 month 50% level.







Gold and Silver are currently out of sink which doesn't usually happen for extended periods?






Thinking out loud, the punter in me says Long Gold/ Short Silver in the short term should be low risk based purely on past "equalization"?


----------



## gartley

Gold been very dissapointing since mid  last year. Back then was working with the assumption that wave 4 was tracing out however it made a new high negating what I thought was a developing contracting triangle.  Have not given up on the wave 4 count yet as current move down maybe wave c of an irregular  correction. 
Could also be that wave 4 complete and that the move up last 3 years was the wave 5 terminal wave.   Irrespective not game enough to dabble in the miners atm.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

barney said:


> Gold approaching a 12 month 50% level.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold and Silver are currently out of sink which doesn't usually happen for extended periods?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thinking out loud, the punter in me says Long Gold/ Short Silver in the short term should be low risk based purely on past "equalization"?



I'm no commodity trader, but I'd agree on the charts. Ag double top and Au set to bounce.

Thanks @barney 

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Gold supplies have flipped from excessive to deficient. Similar situations in the past have sparked a rally in gold prices. Consequently, Wells Fargo has turned positive on gold, saying that the previous scenario is likely to be repeated now also. The diminishing supply growth is likely to take gold prices to up to $2,200 per ounce during 2021. Gold could be on the eve of a new commodity bull super-cycle, he added.










						Gold to Brace Strongest Price Action in 2021
					

The supply had become excessive in 2011 as well. United States Gold News




					www.scrapmonster.com


----------



## bitgooods

peter2 said:


> Where is the price of gold going?  I'd have to say, down. Certainly over the past three months. The daily chart is unsettling. The weekly chart remains bullish in the longer term.
> 
> I'm thinking that money that would normally go to gold may be going into bitcoin.
> 
> Edit: Has ripple just doubled in the last few days?



Sounds pretty fair
however, i have invested in commodity tokens which is pegged to gold (1:1). 
Why do you think, investing in Bitcoin is a good idea now ?


----------



## rederob

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XFtUCTEH/


----------



## Sean K

Has POG broken up?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

kennas said:


> Has POG broken up?
> 
> View attachment 122847



Yes.

All my Golders are up this am.

gg


----------



## rederob

Still $100 off it's downtrend break, and a tad below next point of resistance in moving nor
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
th:


----------



## rederob

Positive break north overnight:


----------



## frugal.rock

againsthegrain said:


> It definitely looks that way.  If it implodes big IF, or perhaps when. Then gold should run



Dogecoin up 6x within 10 days...
All cryptos gone nuts as well.... all except BTC really....!
I hope the crypto world comes crashing down, HARD.
That's not even schadenfreud, just easy come easy go.〽️


----------



## rederob

frugal.rock said:


> Dogecoin up 6x within 10 days...
> All cryptos gone nuts as well.... all except BTC really....!
> I hope the crypto world comes crashing down, HARD.
> That's not even schadenfreud, just easy come easy go.〽️



I think crypto will be replaced by sovereign backed digital currency. 
No assets back crypto so I am not sure how it can compete when that day comes.
But that's not my scene, so I will leave it to others to speculate.


----------



## moXJO

Any truth to China trying to back its digital currency with gold?

Trying to sink the US dollar as the reserve


----------



## dyna

Lest we forget. It was back in 1997.The bright sparks down in the vault of our RBA looked at our 247 Tonne horde of the yellow stuff and figured,at $US 335/oz, it was a good time to flog most of it off,leaving just 80 tonnes! To be fair,the gold chart didn't look too promising at the time,but still.......


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It is a difficult conundrum atm. Gold vs. Crypto.

All the usual nutters who give gold its volatility such as Musk seem to be providing that to crypto. 

It would be interesting to know whether crypto could mirror, as gold does, regional significant wars such as Middle East, Taiwan, Balkans, SE Asia or the next Big War between larger powers.

gg


----------



## over9k

__





						These Changes Promise to Completely Change Global Markets
					

While scenes of frowning people wearing face masks continue to capture and maintain the limelight there have been some very important shifts gaining momentum in the global political landscape. Wuhan Zombie flu I mean COVID-19 and the economic knock on effects of the virus will likely only...




					capitalistexploits.at
				




Worth a read for the gold bugs.


----------



## rederob

over9k said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> These Changes Promise to Completely Change Global Markets
> 
> 
> While scenes of frowning people wearing face masks continue to capture and maintain the limelight there have been some very important shifts gaining momentum in the global political landscape. Wuhan Zombie flu I mean COVID-19 and the economic knock on effects of the virus will likely only...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> capitalistexploits.at
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Worth a read for the gold bugs.



Nah!
I hate poor analysis.


----------



## rederob

Steady as she goes:


----------



## dyna

This from Brian Cox's now, 10 year old remarkable book. All the gold ever found would only fill about 3 Olympic size swimming pools.Not much compared to the size of the world,eh? That rarity extends further out into our milky way galaxy of a billion stars,where the conditions required to produce very rare elements like gold,only happen about 2 minutes in a century.So there won't be much digging for gold on mars,I suppose.


----------



## againsthegrain

dyna said:


> This from Brian Cox's now, 10 year old remarkable book. All the gold ever found would only fill about 3 Olympic size swimming pools.Not much compared to the size of the world,eh? That rarity extends further out into our milky way galaxy of a billion stars,where the conditions required to produce very rare elements like gold,only happen about 2 minutes in a century.So there won't be much digging for gold on mars,I suppose.




Not getting easier or cheaper to mine it either,  peak gold has to be reached some time


----------



## rederob

I don't trade gold as a metal, but the chart says if you want to ride a big movement, it's around UTC 09:00


----------



## rederob

Although there was strong movement overnight and it pierced the first level of resistance on it's way back to a probable new high (not soon tho), it needs a lot more carry through to get to the next level at $1876:


My thinking is that as the post-covid stimulus debt burden sinks in later this year and next, currencies are going to be fragile. And an ounce of gold is always an ounce of gold.


----------



## rederob

Here's the same chart as above, but 4-hourly.
Some good follow through was seen overnight.
POG needs to close above $1860 to break the short term downtrend.


----------



## Joules MM1

i am in STO mode still 



			https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bHErbPXN.png


----------



## finicky

BTO - forgotten what this means
STO?


----------



## Joules MM1

finicky said:


> BTO - forgotten what this means
> STO?



hey @finicky 

buy to open
buy to close
sell to open
sell to close


----------



## rederob

Back to where we were a week ago, but nothing below $1800 in that period, so more uplift likely:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Back to where we were a week ago, but nothing below $1800 in that period, so more uplift likely:
> View attachment 124304



Could you @rederob put up a chart comparing Gold and Bitcoin over the last 3 years as I believe some punters may be migrating to the latter. Perhaps a logarithmic on the latter. 

Then again I cannot see many Indian brides nor Chinese New Year revellers lugging hot hard drives about their necks nor wrists any time in the future.

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Could you @rederob put up a chart comparing Gold and Bitcoin over the last 3 years as I believe some punters may be migrating to the latter. Perhaps a logarithmic on the latter.
> 
> Then again I cannot see many Indian brides nor Chinese New Year revellers lugging hot hard drives about their necks nor wrists any time in the future.
> 
> gg



Sir Garpal
In the market, timing is everything.
So, let's first look at the past 6 weeks and see how you would have gone:


*Bad*coin!
And exactly 2 years ago based on the same chart, you get this outcome:



It's hard to believe that money which 5 years ago would have flowed into gold in this economic environment has not instead flowed into cryptocurrencies.
The only thing I know about the market is that bubbles have always burst.  So I reckon there is a good chance that the much safer haven of gold as a store of value (in markets burdened with debt) will continue to outshine the johnnycomelatelies.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Sir Garpal
> In the market, timing is everything.
> So, let's first look at the past 6 weeks and see how you would have gone:
> View attachment 124312
> 
> *Bad*coin!
> And exactly 2 years ago based on the same chart, you get this outcome:
> View attachment 124313
> 
> 
> It's hard to believe that money which 5 years ago would have flowed into gold in this economic environment has not instead flowed into cryptocurrencies.
> The only thing I know about the market is that bubbles have always burst.  So I reckon there is a good chance that the much safer haven of gold as a store of value (in markets burdened with debt) will continue to outshine the johnnycomelatelies.



A compelling post Rob. 

gg


----------



## rederob

A nice kick north overnight has POG within $10 of breaking above its next level of resistance:


While it has taken some 9 month from its record high to finally buck the trend, its rise of $190 in less than 2 months is formidable.

I know the chart above looks like a Scottish tartan, but it incorporates 3 distinct trends:

The broken downtrend (highlighted by the light blue line below the red arrow)
The long term uptrend (dark blue median channel)
The shorter-term uptrend (lighter purple outer channel which includes today's circled price)
POG is about to break above the lower boundary of the shorter term uptrend, so lots of takeaways from where POG presently sits on the chart.


----------



## rederob

Back over $1880 but having trouble breaking $1900.
Downtrend broken and upward momentum continues.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Back over $1880 but having trouble breaking $1900.
> Downtrend broken and upward momentum continues.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 124671



Thanks @rederob . Looking at your chart GOLD doesn't seem to have the "legs" it had after March 2020.

More like Dec 19 - Mar 20.

I would like to be wrong. 

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @rederob . Looking at your chart GOLD doesn't seem to have the "legs" it had after March 2020.
> 
> More like Dec 19 - Mar 20.
> 
> I would like to be wrong.
> 
> gg



*Perspective is everything Sir Garpal.
That's a $200 rise over the past 2 months!*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> *Perspective is everything Sir Garpal.
> That's a $200 rise over the past 2 months!*
> View attachment 124696



Thanks @rederob 

So you expect this to be a Wave 3 EW. It could be. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just looking at a number of charts Bitcoin and Gold. 

There seems to be an inverse correlation over the last month, a fall in BTC and a rise in GOLD.

Perhaps the punters are moving back in to my metal.





gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just looking at a number of charts Bitcoin and Gold.
> 
> There seems to be an inverse correlation over the last month, a fall in BTC and a rise in GOLD.
> 
> Perhaps the punters are moving back in to my metal.
> 
> View attachment 124741
> View attachment 124742
> 
> 
> gg




I was thinking along those lines too at the start of the year #12,521


----------



## bux2000

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Perhaps the punters are moving back in to my metal.












						Record volumes of gold moved to NZ as investors seek safe haven
					

Risk-averse international investors are thought to flying in their gold to stash it in a discreet, high-security vault near Auckland's international airport.




					www.newsroom.co.nz
				




bux


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

bux2000 said:


> Record volumes of gold moved to NZ as investors seek safe haven
> 
> 
> Risk-averse international investors are thought to flying in their gold to stash it in a discreet, high-security vault near Auckland's international airport.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsroom.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bux



It is quite a secret where the Bullion Depository is near Auckland Airport.

I am aware it has been busier than usual.

It is not far from the Airport. 

Quite near the Oceans 11 Burger Bar and is guarded by anorexic looking Pākehā.

But don't tell anyone else. 

gg


----------



## over9k

NZ also has a lot of doomsday houses/bunkers owned by the uber rich too. It's their literal societal collapse plan. 

It'd be mine too (or tasmania).


----------



## bux2000

Garpal Gumnut said:


> and is guarded by anorexic looking Pākehā.



SSSSSSSH    he is not your average looking NZ Security Guard, but probably makes sense it is next to Burger joint .....He will need to grow into his job.

bux


----------



## againsthegrain

bux2000 said:


> SSSSSSSH    he is not your average looking NZ Security Guard, but probably makes sense it is next to Burger joint .....He will need to grow into his job.
> 
> bux




There is nothing to guard no gold just a decoy,  secret sauce for the burgers is the real hidden treasure there ok


----------



## bux2000

over9k said:


> NZ also has a lot of doomsday houses/bunkers owned by the uber rich too. It's their literal societal collapse plan.
> 
> It'd be mine too (or tasmania).




I must admit I find this subject quite fascinating when you hear who floats in and out on a regular basis.

bux


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> Back over $1880 but having trouble breaking $1900.
> Downtrend broken and upward momentum continues.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 124671




Interesting how gold stocks precipitated this. March was the bottom.


----------



## rederob

$1900 back on the table, with more to come...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> $1900 back on the table, with more to come...
> View attachment 124880



Yes, it does look bullish. 

Every Elon and his Doge will be jumping their ship and in to GOLD as a safe haven. 

I am strapped in for the ride. 

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes, it does look bullish.
> 
> Every Elon and his Doge will be jumping their ship and in to GOLD as a safe haven.
> 
> I am strapped in for the ride.
> 
> gg



Next level of resistance is at $1962 (which did not fit on to my chart this morning).
Over the past few years these bullish uptrends have run nicely for periods up to 3 months before consolidation, so we may have another month more here.
Also, if traders recently got burnt with cryptos then they might prefer to dabble back into the safer haven of gold.
By the way, the correction in POG last year was not precipitated by Bitcoin's parabolic rise, as there was a gap of a few months between POG's descent and Bitcoin's ascent, as shown below (note that RHS and LHS scales are different to emphasise this point):


https://www.tradingview.com/x/pOaWAtQm/


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I would not however be surprised @rederob if there is not a small retracement.

Remember the Chinese and Indian cousins are out of New Year and Religious Festival time yahooing. The latter are more riven by Covid and more concerned with offloading gold for protection and oxygen. 

The DXY also seems to have some legs.

gg


----------



## Bik

Hi all, I made a video about all the factors that seem to be coming together for Gold (& Silver) which could send prices rocketing. I would really appreciate any subscribes to my YouTube channel as this would this would help me while I'm trying to set it up.  



Gold price is holding right around the US1900 which is positive in my opinion and sets it up for a potential clear breakthrough of that resistance level.


----------



## over9k

Not trying to be awful but I ain't watching a 20 min vid on this. You got a short version?


----------



## rederob

Just over a year ago POG added over $250 in under 3 weeks before heading into a downtrent that ended on 31 March this year.
I have never been a fan of parabolic rises as the inevtable retraces tend to get nasty.
Since April we have seen a steady and sustainable return of POG towards its former high.
On the chart below you can clearly see the slope of lat year's trend was so much steeper than the current trend.  The present trend suggests $2000 is achievable in July.  



What we don't have yet is a period of consolidation.  So I for one will be very happy if POG hangs around $1900 for a good while longer.  
I suspect after watching @Bik's video that he is more optimistic.   
This thread goes back almost 16 years and some of us posting to it now were around in the early days, so we have a good recollection of POG's ups and downs.  
Right now POG's ingredients for further price rises cetainly look promising.  I just don't want to see a repeat of last year's frenzy.


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




am short two PM's tonight*, this one needs to break the "most recent pullbacks" to give a hint we area bout to retest the low, maybe break the channel

def a quip in their, Scovid!


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




xauusd, enough done, price hits base of the channel and stops, makes for a decent long entry and an uncle point
local $xgd components on the coinbanking knee jerk, plenty of froth in local goldies

looks like standard fare atm, 1855 front month contract needs to hold (where the channel base falls apart)


----------



## frugal.rock

Have noticed the XGD whipsawing circa up to 4%
I had speculated with pog heading up so hard last year, every man and their dog were going to do their best on extracting it from the ground.

Long term mothballed projects were looked at and restarted where easy and possible while new projects and production ramp ups were the norm.... perhaps we are seeing the inevitable supply overcoming demand?

Don't want to be a pessimist, just looking at reality.

From keeping tabs on our agriculture sector, farmers are positive and getting massively better grain crops, underlying moisture levels are good and they are all seeding more than usual.
Markets displaced by China have found new homes and prices have well recovered.
They just need the good conditions to continue later in the year.
Can't eat gold... well you can, just get fancy poo's though. 😁
Food for thought.


----------



## Joules MM1

current BTO 
#observation 








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## rederob

Blues were on the money with a record winning margin last night.
Shame it hasn't filtered through to POG.


Anyway, sitting nicely on trend and consolidating within 1% of $1900, so just need to be patient!


----------



## wayneL

Keep an eye on the debt market and DXY for a lead into medium term gold trajectory... And of course the case for AUD dumpage is good for Aussie gold holders.

Disclaimer: Long both gold and silver on a HODL basis.


----------



## sptrawler

wayneL said:


> Keep an eye on the debt market and DXY for a lead into medium term gold trajectory... And of course the case for AUD dumpage is good for Aussie gold holders.
> 
> Disclaimer: Long both gold and silver on a HODL basis.



Question, if the world does decide on a universal crypto currency, to replace the Fiat system,could the gold standard come back?
The issue is, ATM gold is historically linked to the $US reserve currency, would it be valued up or down if it became the standard for a universal crypto.








						What Is the Gold Standard? Advantages, Alternatives, and History
					

Learn more about the gold standard, including its complicated global history and its connection to the fiat system and the U.S. dollar today.




					www.investopedia.com
				



Just musing


----------



## wayneL

sptrawler said:


> Question, if the world does decide on a universal crypto currency, to replace the Fiat system,could the gold standard come back?
> The issue is, ATM gold is historically linked to the $US reserve currency, would it be valued up or down if it became the standard for a universal crypto.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What Is the Gold Standard? Advantages, Alternatives, and History
> 
> 
> Learn more about the gold standard, including its complicated global history and its connection to the fiat system and the U.S. dollar today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.investopedia.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just musing



It's London to a brick that there will be a *digital* reserve currency. I don't think it will be a crypto in the true sense though. Gold will simply tie to that, whatever is.

A Gold standard? Well it makes sense to the Austrians. But usefull to whatever central bank has control of the reins? 

Dunno.

In that situation will gold be valuable to we schlepps? 

Again, dunno. But I doubt that would be useful to the central bankers... So my best guess is probably less so than now.

I realise that's pretty pessimistic, but the reptiles in charge of things don't fill me with a great deal of confidence that they have our best interests at heart.


----------



## sptrawler

wayneL said:


> It's London to a brick that there will be a *digital* reserve currency. I don't think it will be a crypto in the true sense though. Gold will simply tie to that, whatever is.
> 
> A Gold standard? Well it makes sense to the Austrians. But usefull to whatever central bank has control of the reins?
> 
> Dunno.
> 
> In that situation will gold be valuable to we schlepps?
> 
> Again, dunno. But I doubt that would be useful to the central bankers... So my best guess is probably less so than now.
> 
> I realise that's pretty pessimistic, but the reptiles in charge of things don't fill me with a great deal of confidence that they have our best interests at heart.



Yep, I'm just trying to stimulate thought and discussion.
The facts as I see them are, the U.S financial institutions trashed the U.S reserve currency status in the GFC, the CDO's left a lot of the rest of the World especially China, EU and U.K completely at their mercy.
The U.S devalued the currency to make their product cheaper, but left everyone else's currency high and dry, which made their exports less competitive.
 Australia was lucky our banks were too small to play in the 'big pool'.
China from memory was caught with a lot of U.S bonds and well the EU ended up with the PIGS.
So it really did put the U.S as reserve currency in the spotlight,  China started buying a lot of gold, possibly hoping to re ignite the gold standard.
Technology has moved along, China is completely pizzed with the U.S because of the power of their currency and everyone else is the meat in the sandwich.
So enter bitcoin a backyard shed crypto currency that can be traced to the enth degree, it isn't great, but the idea is.
Now we find China is developing its own crypto, the U.S reserve is developing its own crypto, Austrac has gone onto steroids chasing lax money tracking.
To me it makes perfect sense, joining the dots that they are trying to get the institutions up to speed with tracking ability, is it to follow money laundering or is it ticking a check list?
Just my musing, over a nice hot salami and cheese biscuit, with a Taylors red. 🤣 You don't have to be rich to enjoy the finer things in life.


----------



## rederob

sptrawler said:


> Yep, I'm just trying to stimulate thought and discussion.
> The facts as I see them are, the U.S financial institutions trashed the U.S reserve currency status in the GFC, the CDO's left a lot of the rest of the World especially China, EU and U.K completely at their mercy.



Reserve currency standings are relatively unchanged over the past 25 years, although some shifts to and fro occurred during the period:





sptrawler said:


> So it really did put the U.S as reserve currency in the spotlight,  China started buying a lot of gold, possibly hoping to re ignite the gold standard.
> Technology has moved along, China is completely pizzed with the U.S because of the power of their currency and everyone else is the meat in the sandwich.



China is the world's largest gold producer.
*Major Gold Producing Nations*






sptrawler said:


> So enter bitcoin a backyard shed crypto currency that can be traced to the enth degree, it isn't great, but the idea is.
> Now we find China is developing its own crypto, the U.S reserve is developing its own crypto,



Cryptocurrency and central bank digital currency are very different creatures in that crypto is unregulated.


sptrawler said:


> Austrac has gone onto steroids chasing lax money tracking.
> To me it makes perfect sense, joining the dots that they are trying to get the institutions up to speed with tracking ability, is it to follow money laundering or is it ticking a check list?



Crypto is secure because of its blockchain ledger system, which is also transparent, so law enforcement agencies need only the internet to track transactions.  Unlike banking systems transactions which require permissions to access accounts, law enforcement tracking can be instantaneous.

As I read trends, gold prices are not affected by reserve currencies.
Nor are they affected by cryptocurrencies.  The rise of gold prices in the current bull market preceded the parabolic rise of cryptos, while their present sharp decline sees gold prices relatively unchanged or rising.

Gold cannot be created, nor destroyed, so will remain an instrument that stores wealth and can be exchanged when other forms of *money *falter.


----------



## sptrawler

Interesting that China is the World's biggest producer of gold as well as the World's biggest buyer of gold.








						Countries went on a gold-buying spree before coronavirus took hold – here's why
					

Long before COVID-19, central banks were lining their stores for winter.




					theconversation.com
				



From the article:
The global economy was flashing danger signs long before the pandemic. For one thing, many countries were clamouring to get hold of as much gold as possible. For the past decade, they have been buying new reserves and bringing it home from overseas storage to an extent never seen in modern times. Then just before the pandemic, there was a pause. What does all this mean?

Central banks added 650 tons to their reserves in 2019, the second highest shift in 50 years, after the 656 tons added in 2018. Before the 2007-09 financial crisis, central banks were net sellers of gold worldwide for decades. Leading the recent spree has been China, Russia, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
We have also seen a large effort by central banks to repatriate their gold from other countries, mostly from storage in New York and London.
Venezuela started repatriating its gold in 2011, shipping 160 tonnes from New York. A third of its holdings remain in London, but only because the Bank of England won’t repatriate them – declaring it doesn’t recognise the government in Caracas. Venezuela has now made this the subject of a legal claim.

Between 2012 and 2017, Germany repatriated most of its massive reserve from Paris and New York to Frankfurt. The Netherlands did likewise in 2014, followed by Austria.
This dash to gold is about geopolitics and economics. Gold serves as a patch mark of nationalist identity. To quote Adam Glapinski, governor of the National Bank of Poland, “gold symbolises the strength of [a] country”.

Stocking up has made sense to many countries in the populist climate. It is also a sign of countries diversifying from dollars. The likes of Russia, China and even countries in Western Europe want to break the US dominance of the financial system, having seen it used as leverage in everything from economic sanctions to trade threats.

The new dash for gold makes economists pause and wonder what is happening. It seems to show many countries looking for a safe haven in these years in which interest rates have been very low and central banks have been printing large amounts of money to stimulate the global economy. Gold continues to have intrinsic value, so it reassures countries – especially if they fear inflation and downturns.

And yet, just as economic uncertainty was about to move to a whole new level with the pandemic, this trend lost momentum. Additions to the gold holdings of central banks and other international institutions in the three months to January 2020 – the most recent figure available – were just 67 metric tons, the least since August 2018.

In truth, this was not entirely surprising. Purchasing bullion at close to a seven-year high, and after a month of prices fluctuating plus or minus about 13%, is no particularly prudent way to consolidate economic and geopolitical power.


----------



## Sean K

Been following Rick Rule for a little bit. Sounds like he knows what he's talking about.


----------



## frugal.rock

sptrawler said:


> Just my musing, over a nice hot salami and cheese biscuit,



I went on a unwanted 12 hour journey because of a hot salami and cheese baguette and a woman.... don't get me started. 😂


----------



## qldfrog

frugal.rock said:


> I went on a unwanted 12 hour journey because of a hot salami and cheese baguette and a woman.... don't get me started. 😂



Please please tell us more 😂


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

frugal.rock said:


> I went on a unwanted 12 hour journey because of a hot salami and cheese baguette and a woman.... don't get me started. 😂



Do tell us more.

My good friend Quentin Tarantino is interested.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

frugal.rock said:


> I went on a unwanted 12 hour journey because of a hot salami and cheese baguette and a woman.... don't get me started. 😂





qldfrog said:


> Please please tell us more 😂



If you are not going to tell us we will just have to come up with a plausible story.

"It was a dark and windy night and the POG had retraced to what @frugal.rock hoped would be the beginning of a minor 3 wave in a promising Elliot pattern. He noticed in the gloom a message on his iPhone 6s..... "

Could somebody help me here please.

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> "It was a dark and windy night and the POG had retraced to what @frugal.rock hoped would be the beginning of a minor 3 wave in a promising Elliot pattern. He noticed in the gloom a message on his iPhone 6s..... * 12 Pro Max*"
> 
> Could somebody help me here please.
> 
> gg



Yes.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

"It was a dark and windy night and the POG had retraced to what @frugal.rock hoped would be the beginning of a minor 3 wave in a promising Elliot pattern. He noticed in the gloom a message on an iPhone 12 Pro Max which had replaced his iPhone 6s by some means. A tingling ran up along his neck. Not unease, a sense of hunger, not a passion, yes, yes a passionate feeling, $1834.30. He took his eyes from the chart. Ignoring the magical replacement of his telephonic device he pressed to read the message......"

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I’m still bullish on gold. One of the main triggers for a rise in price could be a further crash in crypto.

Amongst others. Though I’m not predicting a complete crash in the latter.

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I’m still bullish on gold. One of the main triggers for a rise in price could be a further crash in crypto.
> 
> Amongst others. Though I’m not predicting a complete crash in the latter.
> 
> gg




The way the world is going its not smooth sailing from here as the media would like to paint it, something will give sooner or later.  Perfect environment for gold to shine.  Just gives time to accumulate,  us inflation at 5%, good times. 

I am into 6 digits now as a long term hold on gold... back to sleep


----------



## frugal.rock

againsthegrain said:


> I am into 6 digits now as a long term hold on gold... back to sleep



Can I ask in what form are you holding?
Must be more interesting than a story about a salami & cheese baguette which spans 3 countries being Luxembourg, Belgium and France 🤪


----------



## againsthegrain

frugal.rock said:


> Can I ask in what form are you holding?
> Must be more interesting than a story about a salami & cheese baguette which spans 3 countries being Luxembourg, Belgium and France 🤪




I already said too much 🤫 
gold stackers don't stack, I mean reveal... I mean talk... admit... 🤪  anything


----------



## rederob

Now I’ve heard there was a secret price
That frugally rocked to please the Lord
But you don’t really care for gold, do you?
It goes like this
The fourth, the fifth
Or a major fall, then a minor lift
That baffled chartists composing this
Hallelujah.


----------



## rederob

Way back in March 2008 POG peaked,  then drifted for a a while as the GFC took hold, before taking off again in October 2009 and running to its next peak in late 2011.
If we context that to the covid period, then the decline from last August's peak could run for another 6 months before the bull run proper gets back underway.
Now:



Back in 2008/09:


----------



## gartley

I posted a long term chart of gold back in mid last year postulating that we are currently in a long term 4th wave triangle. Despite the fact that it pushed higher mid last year I think this might be still the case and we are now in wave C of that 4th wave triangle.
I for one would welcome this decline to continue as it would bring another great buying opportunity for us maybe next year


----------



## rederob

Gold is sitting nicely in its long term uptrend:


Since December 2015 a series of higher lows has been in place to maintain POG's upward trajectory.
With equity markets still proving to be rewarding at present there is no fundamental reason to rush to gold.


----------



## Joules MM1

that's interesting, how useful tho ?
ex Callum Thomas feed


----------



## mullokintyre

There have been many commentators who have derided the paltry level of oversight by the CFTC on the paper derivative bullion markets that allow the likes of JP Morgan and other big US banks to drive the price of gold up and down.  The amount of shorts of silver for instance, currently standat around 173 days of silver production, that of goldThe Banks have always maintained that there are counterparties to all of these derivatives, so a re perfectly legitimate. Of course they never name  who these counterparties are, but there have always been suspicions that it is the US fed itself in cahoots with treasury officials who want to control the USD Index and thwart Russian Chinese, Iranian and anybody else they care to mention  who want a gold backed  international currency.
There have been a few pushes by some parties to demand physical delivery on heaps of the these paper contracts, but because bullion  storage is controlled tightly, its always difficult when the ownership changes but the bullion stays in exactly the same vault.  
The introduction of the BASEL 3 international banking and financial regulations may go some small way towards winding down some of these paper derivatives.
From Gold Money


> *The draft PRA rules complying with Basel 3 regulations have now been issued six months ahead of their implementation to allow banks to adjust for them in time. From now, senior bankers, their lawyers and bank treasury managers will be planning amendments to their business strategies accordingly.
> 
> As a division of the Bank of England, the Prudential Regulation Authority recognises the importance of gold trading in London and has inserted a clause into the new rules (Article 428f) which will allow the LBMA’s centralised settlement system to continue to function. But in line with Basel 3’s apparent determination to get banking’s exposure to uneven derivative positions substantially reduced, net positions in precious metal derivatives in the form of forwards and swaps will be penalised through their inefficient use of balance sheet resources and will likely be replaced by transactions fully backed by physical gold.
> 
> The LBMA has been thrown a lifeline but will likely have to refocus from forward derivatives to physical bullion backed trading. By responding positively to these developments, the LBMA and its membership can retain and build on their pre-eminent position in global precious metals markets.
> 
> This article points out that the market value of forward derivatives in gold is currently the equivalent of 8,675 tonnes. While it would be incorrect to think it will all translate into new bullion demand, there is little doubt that if Basel 3 leads to the demise of the London forwards market, it will lead in turn to a significant replacement in the form of physical demand.*
> Investors are increasingly aware that in all international financial centres, banks are now being required to run their businesses differently under the new Basel 3 regulations. For the first time, regulators are now telling banks how they must fund their assets out of their liabilities. This is a major change, which from the beginning of this month is being applied in the US and the EU. It is scheduled to be introduced in the UK from 1 January 2022.
> 
> The introduction of Basel 3 bank regulations follows an agreement at G20 level for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to draw up new regulations to address the systemic risk issues exposed by the Lehman failure in 2008. The new regulations proved controversial, delaying their introduction, having been finalised as long ago as October 2014. But, unlike rules originating from national regulators Basel 3 was not easily spiked by lawyers representing the banking industry’s interests.



I would reccommend the complete article for anyone interested in International Gold trading.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

Because of the steep recent fall in the AUD, Goldi n AUD is now approaching the 2500 mark.
For those unhedged miners, these are good returns times.
I am a bit surprised that there has not been a bit of as surge in  some of the goldies, but more than happy to wait.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> Because of the steep recent fall in the AUD, Goldi n AUD is now approaching the 2500 mark.
> For those unhedged miners, these are good returns times.
> I am a bit surprised that there has not been a bit of as surge in  some of the goldies, but more than happy to wait.
> Mick




 i have been recently trying to cherry-pick gold-producers  at what i consider fair prices  , so yes  i will embrace the disappointment  of ASX listed gold miners  wallowing in mediocrity 

 ( as the NIC implies i am hoping they will continue paying DIVS  on the nice earnings )


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




easy to get energised looking at this (Tradingview calc/gram)

for those keeping their power dry (put away that musket!), a decent hit in this chart would make a decent (buy) heirloom investment


----------



## divs4ever

what you say defies logic  ( compulsive money printing  , real inflation rising  , etc etc . )

  but currently , logic is habitually ignored 

 gold stocks should be smashed ( briefly ) when the easy credit dries up  and the over-leveraged  need to cover their debts 

 but when will they turn off the money-taps  

 this stimulus has already gone on longer than i imagined


----------



## divs4ever

given such massive liquidity  , i am also concerned banks MIGHT freeze accounts  until the crisis ( their liquity issues ) passes


----------



## rederob

Gold remains stuck around $1800:


----------



## bsnews

divs4ever said:


> what you say defies logic  ( compulsive money printing  , real inflation rising  , etc etc . )
> 
> but currently , logic is habitually ignored
> 
> gold stocks should be smashed ( briefly ) when the easy credit dries up  and the over-leveraged  need to cover their debts
> 
> but when will they turn off the money-taps
> 
> this stimulus has already gone on longer than i imagined



They can't turn off QE. 
The US and EU hell throw us in the mix as well are going down the same path as Japan best Ponzi seem I have ever seen.


----------



## rederob

Care needs to be taken when comparing gold in AUD terms versus USD terms.
While indexing is a handy way of assessing comparative performance, significant misinterpretation can occur when inappropriate starting dates (or periods) are used.
In the chart below I have used a "best fit" for calendar 2019 (rather than single point in time) as a basis for comparing *trends *in later prices:


The longer term price trend is obvious from the above.
I won't chart the shorter term trend as anyone can play with indexed dates for 2021 and discover that throughout this year to date POG in *AUD *has outperformed.
The point of this comparison is to map back prices to Australian gold mining company performance.  While 2021 looks good for AUD denominated gold the bigger picture shows we have a lot of catching up to do to return to parity.


----------



## Joules MM1

inflationary trigger, well, should be, normally









						Top Shipping Stocks
					

Top shipping stocks include ZIM Integrated Shipping Services for best value, A.P. Møller Mærsk for fastest growth, and Grindrod Shipping Holdings for most momentum.




					www.investopedia.com


----------



## rederob

Gold drops $140 in 3 sessions:


And it's still trending down as I post.


----------



## rederob

A closer look at gold's collapse:





Recovery now underway.


----------



## KevinBB

rederob said:


> Recovery now underway.



This is a really good example of why I trade using end of day prices, and place trades during the US day session only. Too much whipsaw otherwise.

KH


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> A closer look at gold's collapse:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Recovery now underway.



Agree.

If it looks like a bottom, shines like a bottom and when you turn it over it glistens just as much. it is Gold at a bottom. 

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree.
> 
> If it looks like a bottom, shines like a bottom and when you turn it over it glistens just as much. it is Gold at a bottom.
> 
> gg



Until the downtrend is broken then we might all be shown the gold finger:




Otherwise, bottoms up, good chap.


----------



## DaveTrade

Be careful guys I think gold is going lower.


----------



## divs4ever

DaveTrade said:


> Be careful guys I think gold is going lower.



 i hope you are correct  ( and have some cash reserves if you are )


----------



## Icarus500

Markets are closed today in Japan and Singapur due to public holidays, liquidity was very thin this morning on the ASIA Pacific session, perfect scenario for the big guys to manipulate the Gold price, the trap was set up on Friday New York Closing time with the first drop, they moved the price where they want it, I will be very surprised if Gold keeps going down.


----------



## divs4ever

Icarus500 said:


> Markets are closed today in Japan and Singapur due to public holidays, liquidity was very thin this morning on the ASIA Pacific session, perfect scenario for the big guys to manipulate the Gold price, the trap was set up on Friday New York Closing time with the first drop, they moved the price where they want it, I will be very surprised if Gold keeps going down.



welcome to ASF  , and posting here 

 personally i am staying flexible in my choices 

 cheers


----------



## over9k

First: 




But then: 




The bottom seems to have been found?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sorry to open another thread on gold. I got bored with the market this afternoon and went in to Kitco.

I was struck by the appearance of an EW Wave 2 presently forming in all time frames 6mo. and beyond. 

Is anyone charting USD/Gold Oz.  
	

		
			
		

		
	



gg


----------



## DaveTrade

I still think that gold is going lower.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sorry all, "I didn't realise there were so many chartists in this thread. I had started a thread on "Gold Charts"

I will ask @Joe Blow to transfer the post here and delete the thread..

It basically related to EW and what I see as a wave 2 forming in all time parameters 6 mo. and longer.

So it may drop a bit but then Golden Days.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Yes, thanks @Joe Blow . So basically with ref. to what I posted last night I will now continue my spiel, with an updated set of Kitco.com of the $USD/Oz Gold charts over different time frames to tonight. 

In all from the 6mo. chart and beyond the 6mo.chart,  gold is in an EW pattern Wave 2, with the sub-pattern about to complete it's 1-2-3. 

Now it looks to me as if a Wave 3 is about to develop, i.e. a re-rating of gold to bullish. 

I've been so busy with rare earths ( they are very heavy ) I have omitted to complete the post from above and I apologise. 

I feel it is again time to look at gold. 



gg


----------



## DaveTrade

Garpal Gumnut said:


> In all from the 6mo. chart and beyond the 6mo.chart, gold is in an EW pattern Wave 2, with the sub-pattern about to complete it's 1-2-3.
> 
> Now it looks to me as if a Wave 3 is about to develop, i.e. a re-rating of gold to bullish.



Yes I agree that the very long term future looks very good for Gold. Your EW analysis, wave three is the big one, also we see a cup and handle pattern on your ten year chart, very bullish, and the market is trying to get on the track of the Gann 90 year cycle, also very long term bullish. The fundamentals are good for Gold & Silver when the economy  gets moving and all the new tech is being built for EV and automation. Keeping all these in mind, I like monitor and keep reassessing what is happening.


----------



## rederob

Looking at price action alone (via a renko chart based on ATR box size of $30), gold was triggered to *BUY *in April (TSI inflection).


Using a $10 box size we get more trading opportunities, and can refine trading dates.


In this case the most recent trigger was 11 August and confirmation (based on 2 box movement, ie. above $1770) occurred during trade on Friday 13th.
As I believe all the ingredients for a gold bull market remain intact, the pattern we are in may repeat the bull cycle that ran from September 1999 to August 2011.  As the present bull cycle kicked off in January 2016 we might have another 5 years of price appreciation ahead.


----------



## noirua




----------



## divs4ever

BULLISH HAMMER IN GOLD POINTING TO NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS BEFORE YEAR END.​


 well that is depressing 

 i was hoping to calmly and opportunistically  add more gold stocks in the coming year 

 DYOR


----------



## StockyGuy

Bought some PMGOLD ETF when gold was 1733ish USD on wednesday.  For me probably a never-sell, short of massive increase sparked by a real re-jigging of stuff.  I believe in the thesis for silver similarly, but the only ETF on ASX that covers silver alone has too high a management fee for my liking.  PMGOLD only has 0.15% per annum management fee, so can forget about without fear of it being nibbled away too quickly.

I'm no Schiff-style gold bug, but IMO theres maybe a 10-20% chance in the next 2 decades that gold repeatedly multibags based on today's prices.  Definitely seems worth having some skin in the game on that possibility.


----------



## DaveTrade

I hope this is not breaking any rules. This is a Gann look at Gold, I hope the link works.

*CLICK TO WATCH*


----------



## Joules MM1

DaveTrade said:


> I hope this is not breaking any rules. This is a Gann look at Gold, I hope the link works.
> 
> *CLICK TO WATCH*




have  followed James, he is a knowledgeable historian, his database is huge, probably the largest available to retail
commend watching this


----------



## Joules MM1

"...my data goes back to 1879.."
(second video worth watching too)


----------



## Joules MM1

divs4ever said:


> BULLISH HAMMER IN GOLD POINTING TO NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS BEFORE YEAR END.​
> 
> 
> well that is depressing
> 
> i was hoping to calmly and opportunistically  add more gold stocks in the coming year
> 
> DYOR




elitetrader.com/et/threads/when-perfect-hammers-fail.68812/

the thing about using technical analysis from books is that it's an attempt to do colour-by-numbers, all the standard colours maybe there and they make recognisable sense, completing a picture, however, nuances and shades n light etc make the difference in pictures as much as context makes in a chart, its a  presentation of intent, by interpretation.... if the exponent merely cherry picks a single thing without at least providing two contexts then the odds of being on the wrong side of the trade go back to 50/50 ......


----------



## DaveTrade

DaveTrade said:


> I hope this is not breaking any rules. This is a Gann look at Gold, I hope the link works.
> 
> *CLICK TO WATCH*



This is a follow up video from the last one which looks at Gold through a Gann lens;

*CLICK TO WATCH*


----------



## mullokintyre

The price of gold has poked through the $2500 handle. 
This is thanks to falls in the AUD in most recent days,  so perhaps some investors/traders have missed ithe run up due to only looking at the USD/Gold price.
At these prices,  one might expect some improvement in the ASX goldies, but they are still languishing somewhat.
If these prices hold, or even better , keep going up, it will likely transform into improved  prices for gold stocks.
Mick


----------



## DaveTrade

mullokintyre said:


> perhaps some investors/traders have missed ithe run up



We could have a higher low forming here and for me, that would make a good entry point. Depends on what it does tonight.


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> The price of gold has poked through the $2500 handle.
> This is thanks to falls in the AUD in most recent days,  so perhaps some investors/traders have missed ithe run up due to only looking at the USD/Gold price.
> At these prices,  one might expect some improvement in the ASX goldies, but they are still languishing somewhat.
> If these prices hold, or even better , keep going up, it will likely transform into improved  prices for gold stocks.
> Mick




 yes , but sadly i was hoping for lower gold stock prices, because i was hoping to buy more of them 

 oh well


----------



## Greynomad99

Here's a bit of charting mumbo jumbo that suggests gold could be about to recover.  If you aren't into charting I'd probably suggest you not bother reading the analysis.

Gold hasn’t done me any favours recently. When GLD fell to a long-term support (blue dashed diagonal line) and then rose to break a weekly downtrend I saw it going higher and bought into a couple of gold stocks (NCM and EVN). Price rose to $1,900 making a new technical weekly uptrend in the process before rolling over and falling back heavily. I held on the basis price should kick up if/when it reached that long-term support line, however, price fell through said support by 4.5% to stop at the next support level below (around $1,680). Last week it moved up to close above that support making me a little more confident of the outlook for the precious metal.

Technically, price has not made a new weekly downtrend in the recent fall, so by definition it remains in an uptrend – another positive.

The week before last made a hammer candlestick which is a reversal candle when at the bottom of price action. The closing price for GLD has risen for the past 2 weeks (although last week was only up $1).

Elliott Wave Theory, while always a bit subjective, suggests that if the low of 2 weeks ago was a significant low then price is probably on Wave 5 which, if correct, means price should go back above the August 2020 high of $2,080. The recent rise to $1,900 and pullback to $1,680 could be Elliott Wave sub-waves 1 and 2, and if so, price could now be expected to rise strongly in sub-wave 3 until a theoretical pullback around $2,070 (a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of sub-wave 1 from the bottom of sub-wave 2). $2,070 is very close to the all-time high for GLD which is a significant resistance level that could cause the pullback mentioned.

Finally, Time Theory suggests price may change trend when it meets a time line. Time Theory is a bit Dr Whoish and even more subjective than Elliott Wave. While I don’t regularly use it in my day-to-day trading, it is always in the back of my mind. GLD seems to travel to a 72 days cycle. The vertical lines on the chart are 72 day cycles and while price hasn’t changed direction at every time line, it did at 8 of the last 9 time lines prior to the one that coincides with the low 2 weeks ago. Again, this suggests price is likely to move up.


----------



## rederob

My medium term take on POG based on renko chart style:


Pennant formation with momentum to the upside.
Breakout needed at $1875.
In candlestick chart style it looks a bit easier:


My thinking is that breakout to the upside is 2 to 4 weeks away.
But any further sharp declines can push this into end of year.


----------



## DaveTrade

rederob said:


> My thinking is that breakout to the upside is 2 to 4 weeks away.
> But any further sharp declines can push this into end of year.



I have a couple of charts that do indicate more down for Gold. The first chart below shows the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA are both down and price is still below them both.




The next chart shows that the volume falls for the recent up move and the 'up move' itself is short, four days, then stalls at resistance. These things alone don't signal another fall in the Gold market but they are not supportive for the up move to continue at this time. Next week will give more clarity to the direction of Gold.


----------



## frugal.rock

DaveTrade said:


> Next week will give more clarity to the direction of Gold.



And so it came to pass.
A convincing push last night has it sitting above the 1800 support/ resistance mark.
5 hour bars.


----------



## DaveTrade

At this point I'm still not convinced that Gold will go straight up from here, I'm looking to see if more general sideways movement or a final leg down may come into play. I've just received another Gann video that talks about two paths forward from here, see below;

*CLICK TO WATCH*


----------



## divs4ever

well that depends if you suspect  a major correction (crash )

 currently there is a LOT of liquidity  to hold the global economy together but there is reduced underlying productivity to support the expenditure  , SOMETHING has to move ,  eventually . ( the US dollar could just implode  , pushing all major commodities into orbit , but i don't think that will happen , like that)

 if a major correction ,  gold should drop as leveraged positions are closed , followed by gold buying ( but i am betting  access to the physical metal will be impeded )

 so the question is how much of the gold positions are unleveraged ( and the holders are not heavily leveraged elsewhere )


----------



## mullokintyre

divs4ever said:


> well that depends if you suspect  a major correction (crash )
> 
> currently there is a LOT of liquidity  to hold the global economy together but there is reduced underlying productivity to support the expenditure  , SOMETHING has to move ,  eventually . ( the US dollar could just implode  , pushing all major commodities into orbit , but i don't think that will happen , like that)
> 
> if a major correction ,  gold should drop as leveraged positions are closed , followed by gold buying ( but i am betting  access to the physical metal will be impeded )
> 
> so the question is how much of the gold positions are unleveraged ( and the holders are not heavily leveraged elsewhere )



I  used to think the same. 
When the  crunch came in Feb courtesy of the Covid  scare, I fully expected gold shares to up as a defensive measure.
As we all saw, gold shares got crunched along with everything else. People just wanted to get back into cash. Especially those who were leveraged to get those shares in the first place.
So I expect it to happen again.
If and when the "the Big Correction" comes, gold stocks will also get crunched along with everything else as "investors"  gather up their cash.
I look forward to this correction with great enthusiasm, as I am sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy when blood is flowing in the streets. (methaphorically  speaking of course).
Mick


----------



## divs4ever

i worked that out by studying the GFC  in literature , because i was WAY too busy elsewhere to take much notice of the GFC ( or news ) and then went back to earlier events  , and worked out MOST times everything went to cash ( preferably US dollars ) and then started joining the dots .

 HOWEVER , IF you are under no selling pressure  , and have SOME cash reserves ( i am NOT going to 100% cash if i can help it  )  you can cherry-pick the opportunities 

 in 2020 i did OK , but really there were just too many places to look  for the buying spree .. but i did get SOME  even had a little cash afterwards  , but maybe i could have done better 

 PS   a shopping list  , is much better than enthusiasm  maybe on a white board , because several that were on my 2020 list  , are rated 'probably avoid ' now  after mediocre  attempts to recover from 2020 ( and it isn't all about the profits for me  , some just did nutty things , haven't tried to make smart changes  etc etc )

 so that list could change weekly 

 i would NEVER had thought i would buy KSL or ZIM last year  but have in the last 3 months 

 ALSO in a REAL crash  , watch out some banks don't try to limit withdrawals  , to prevent a run on deposits ( and TDs )

 cheers 

 remember ( quality ) gold stocks cheap can be a good thing , inflation is natural  , but GOLD is lifeless and inert   , nature moves around gold 

 BTW  i see the price of gold as the inverse of the US dollar   ( it is the real spending power of the US dollar going down  )


----------



## Gunnerguy

mullokintyre said:


> I  used to think the same.
> When the  crunch came in Feb courtesy of the Covid  scare, I fully expected gold shares to up as a defensive measure.
> As we all saw, gold shares got crunched along with everything else. People just wanted to get back into cash. Especially those who were leveraged to get those shares in the first place.
> So I expect it to happen again.
> If and when the "the Big Correction" comes, gold stocks will also get crunched along with everything else as "investors"  gather up their cash.
> I look forward to this correction with great enthusiasm, as I am sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy when blood is flowing in the streets. (methaphorically  speaking of course).
> Mick



I’m also waiting for the opportunity.
I do monthly/quarterly reviews of my portfolio, and historically in my birthday, just because, and last year on 19 Feb I went from 95% shares to 60% as I was feeling ‘uncomfortable’. I added all back in May/June/July.
On 1st August this year I again went to 60% shares and 40% cash because I didn’t want to lose my nice gains. I also need cash for other projects. My YTD is 20% and I am very happy with that, and if I am at this level on 1/1/22, then that’s fine. I certainly don’t want to be at a lower level than I am today by the end of the year.
If there is a drop, I’ll only start dripping in if the drop reaches 25%. I don’t think little 5%, 10%, 15% drops would constitute a real correction. Remember the market came back pretty quickly last year.
IMO we need a good drop to clear things out, and then the resulting rise I hope would be nice and slow and steady. 
Gunnerguy


----------



## DaveTrade

Here is an update from James Flanagan, I like the way he talks about what the market participants sometimes do and how to see this in the price action. He is always interesting to watch, hope you enjoy;

*CLICK TO WATCH*


----------



## rederob

On price momentum alone POG is equivocating, although hit an inflection point last week suggesting a continuation to the upside:


BTW, the starting point for the above trend window was May 1972, and captures all price action since 2013.
Marrying the above with a time-based perspective, POG has risen through a $150 range since 9 August, so that's a big plus:


With inflation the only alternative for central banks to rein in debt over coming years, precious metals are likely to be strong outperformers given previous experience.


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD is now showing a bullish bias and S&P500 showing a bearish bias (see thread 'NYSE and the status of world markets) it may be time for GLD to break out to the upside;


----------



## mullokintyre

PM's crunched overnight (again!).
Just when you think there is a bit of momentum on the upside, the nasties come in and down she goes.

Wonder how long they can keep this up?
Probably until the USD is overtaken by  China's Renmimbi. the Euro, Bitcoin, a basket mix of real and digital currencies, or something else unheard of replaces it.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

Does the XGD have any correlation to POG?


----------



## KevinBB

Sorry, don't have access to POG in AUD, but correlation (for the last year or so) between XGD and USGold is 0.23298, almost not correlated, probably because of the movements in AUDUSD during that past year.


----------



## Joules MM1

waiting for the inflation bus to arrive


----------



## Joules MM1

thanks @DaveTrade  for the video links





						World Class Financial and Commodity Analsyis from Gann Global Financial
					

Gann Global’s stock market forecasting and commodities trading insight has helped thousands to enter and exit trades profitably; daily stock market forecasts



					www.gannglobal.com


----------



## Student of Gann

Gold Roadmap out till November :
There are two Dates where Low could come in which are indicated on the two Curves . The first scenario is price could drop into the 24th September then Main trend is indicated up till the 9th November which could turn out to be Top so the duration of upside on this model is around 45 days with past Cycles pointing towards an increase of around 6 1/2% into this Date .Curve No 2 drawn in red indicates that the second scenario could be Low into either Friday 1st or Monday 4th October and then main trend up till around the 9th November the same period on both Curves so I will be watching very closely to see if price moves down and forms Low into either one of those dates and if there is any price Geometry to confirm this pattern . So to confirm the Cycle we require A Low into those Dates and once the position of the market has been confirmed we could be looking at a significant move to the upside of around 6 1/2% in magnitude .
The second set of Curves outline the possible Minor swing points between point A – B . There are a few points that I was unable to calculate but my strategy in regards to these Minor Swing points would be to position yourself in the direction of the prevailing trend which is pointing up towards the 9th November so those Minor swing points could either come in as Minor Top or Minor Low so it would be prudent if some of those minor swing points aligned with a counter trend Low and the next price bar opened higher you could position yourself in the prevailing direction of the trend but be very careful if they set up as Tops as our main plan is to ride the trend up and we are looking for signals to enter long so I would be very selective and wait and see if any of those dates turn out to be counter trend low and then you could enter on the next bar higher with stop management in place .
The projected Low of September 23rd could be a significant point as it is 45 Deg out from the 9th August Low marking 1/2 of the important 90 Deg Cycle and is also about 6 days past the 90 Deg Cycle so with these two points aligning it could turn out to be a significant zone to watch.


----------



## Joules MM1

Fed Watch: Scrambling To Cope With Not-So-Transitory Inflation | Investing.com
					

Market Overview Analysis by Investing.com (Darrell Delamaide/Investing.com) covering: . Read Investing.com (Darrell Delamaide/Investing.com)'s latest article on Investing.com




					www.investing.com
				




excerpt: 
Even more telling, the forecast rate for core PCE inflation in 2022 was 2.3%, compared to 2.1% projected in June and 1.8% in September 2020, when the FOMC members blithely ignored the longer-term impact of supply-chain disruptions. It is a fair bet that December projections will be even a notch higher.

The projected median Fed funds rate for next year was raised to 0.3% from 0.1%, and 1.0% in 2023, compared with forecasts a year ago of the benchmark rate remaining at 0.1% through 2023.


----------



## Sean K

I like talk of a Cup and Handle here. But, not sure where and when the handle ends. Going to be interesting.


----------



## Joules MM1

Reuters Business
@ReutersBiz
·
14m

New Zealand's central bank hiked interest rates for the first time in seven years and signaled further tightening to come, as it looks to get on top of inflationary pressures and cool its red-hot housing market https://reut.rs/3DgvSHS









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




my technical landscape says more slump less Fed pump


----------



## Joules MM1

guyfawkes 








						Forex Factory | Forex markets for the smart money.
					

Forex Factory is where professional traders connect to the forex markets, and to each other.




					www.forexfactory.com


----------



## DaveTrade

Looking at the big picture on Gold, if it holds above the 0.382 retracement level then it's showing strength in the context of the monthly time frame.



Zooming in to a weekly chart it can be seen that at the moment it's moving sideways showing no directional bias but key support is just below at the 158 level.


----------



## Joules MM1

question
on an anecdotal basis, you know how we look for news that fits a top, does this fit a bottom :









						EXCLUSIVE Banks prepare to scrap LME gold and silver contracts, sources say
					

A group of banks that partnered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) to launch gold and silver futures in 2017 is preparing to abandon the project after hoped-for volumes did not materialise, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.




					www.reuters.com
				







Reuters Business
@ReutersBiz
Exclusive: A group of banks that partnered with the London Metal Exchange to launch gold and silver futures in 2017 is preparing to abandon the project *after hoped-for volumes did not materialize*, sources say


----------



## Sean K

USD Au Bouncing off 1750 and through 1775 overnight looks positive, so far. AUD seems to be going up too though...

Cu up nearly 4%


----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## Ann

I usually only look at gold on a quarterly basis but today I can see more in the long term weekly chart. It may be about to break out on the upside of a normally bearish descending triangle. The price has mostly been riding high in the triangle until now where it appears to be taking a bounce upward off the straight base of the triangle. I am really quite bullish about gold as it runs in line with inflation and I can see so many commodities either at the beginning of a big hike such as coffee, wheat, etc along with so many other commodities which are well into their runs upward. Of course, the Biden administration will be blamed for all of this but it has been in the making for some years now.... for example, gold bottomed in December 2015 and has had higher lows ever since. Genuine inflation takes a long time until it blossoms. It is like any other oscillation over time. Small-minded people like to point fingers of blame at normal events which occur on a rotational and oscillating basis. That is why I like to look at the very, very long term. It is the only way to see the truth of all things.




Right, now that I have said that, how best to profit from this potential rise in gold?  Pretty much name your poison, there are so many gold stocks of all kinds and shapes and prices just depending on your stomach for risk. There is one stock you won't be seeing in the stock lists up the top of the forum, it is the exchange-traded fund MNRS. As far as its chart is concerned it is still locked in a Symmetrical triangle and it is still riding under the 200dma It is an ETF that carries the major international gold miners. It also pays an unfranked dividend currently of around 3.5%ish. My guess is this should rise and fall pretty much in line with the gold price.  I would suggest it to those more conservative amongst us. I have its main constituents listed on the chart, I won't bother to write them up again now. Happy trading folks!


----------



## Sean K

Ann said:


> I usually only look at gold on a quarterly basis but today I can see more in the long term weekly chart. It may be about to break out on the upside of a normally bearish descending triangle. The price has mostly been riding high in the triangle until now where it appears to be taking a bounce upward off the straight base of the triangle.




That's the handle on a 10 year cup, Ann. Target around $2600 ish.


----------



## Ann

kennas said:


> That's the handle on a 10 year cup, Ann. Target around $2600 ish.




Yes sure is Kennas, and it is also very close when I draw a swing trade/measured move from the top of the triangle to the first touch onto the base. Confirmation you reckon? 

Edit Nope, I am wrong....


----------



## Telamelo

Trade the Trend *Gold analysis & Gold stocks to watch



Interesting that Jason seems to suggest that "bullish sentiment" perhaps coming back into Gold stocks over the next couple of month's.

I happen to be loaded & ready in some Goldie's WMC & OGC respectively as potential big near term catalysts in play coming up over the next few month's (DYOR as always)

Cheers tela


----------



## Joules MM1

World Class Financial and Commodity Analsyis from Gann Global Financial
					

Gann Global’s stock market forecasting and commodities trading insight has helped thousands to enter and exit trades profitably; daily stock market forecasts



					www.gannglobal.com
				




as a broad perspective, makes sense


----------



## Sean K

Interesting discussion on gold and silver stocks from basic TA perspective in USD terms.


----------



## Sean K

There's something really brewing here, both on the USD POG and XGD. They seem to be converging to a tipping point; for a break up, or down. And, it doesn't seem like you want to be on the wrong side of either to me, if you're long or short. No time frame on it, but it's winding up in all time frames. It seems like it's either a significant move up, or down, at some stage. Just need to be relatively nimble. Very interesting to see this play out.


----------



## rederob

Reading from this link is preferable to me trying to dissect the overnight jump of 1.8% in POG.
The near-term resistance level is $1833 or another 1% jump from today's $1816 close.
After that we need to break $1920 for the rally to be considered as having resumed.


----------



## Sean K

Important juncture here, as we've been commentating on for a while. Now facing significant horizontal and downtrend resistance at this point. A weekly close above these lines will be significant. 

There is still space for more consolidation in the flag of course. Can still go as low as 1680 before a major breakdown.


----------



## Sean K

USD POG now at 1832, above the Jul and Sep highs of 1829 and 1826 resistance points. The downward diagonal line is about the same point, so if there's a break through it beats a couple of key resistance levels. It's not an algo chart so might be off a few notches. I've read on Kitko, chartists calling 1835 the key resistance level.

It's been a solid run since the Sep 29 low of 1725 with a couple of bouncy bouncies*, so expect another breather shortly. Perhaps it will be at this diagonal resistance level, but making a higher high is now the first step on the way back to 1900, then 2070, and then the 2600 ish giant C&H target. 

Having said the above, I'll hedge my bets with the fact there's a huge comet heading towards Earth. 




*TM @finicky


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> USD POG now at 1832, above the Jul and Sep highs of 1829 and 1826 resistance points. The downward diagonal line is about the same point, so if there's a break through it beats a couple of key resistance levels. It's not an algo chart so might be off a few notches. I've read on Kitko, chartists calling 1835 the key resistance level.
> 
> It's been a solid run since the Sep 29 low of 1725 with a couple of bouncy bouncies*, so expect another breather shortly. Perhaps it will be at this diagonal resistance level, but making a higher high is now the first step on the way back to 1900, then 2070, and then the 2600 ish giant C&H target.
> 
> Having said the above, I'll hedge my bets with the fact there's a huge comet heading towards Earth.



And that comet will take the form of the likes of JP Morgan and the other big banks  piling on the shorts in the paper trade on the  CME,
History has a habit of repeating.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> And that comet will take the form of the likes of JP Morgan and the other big banks  piling on the shorts in the paper trade on the  CME,
> History has a habit of repeating.
> Mick




Don't jinx it Mick! I'll blame you if it fails here. 

Even if it does, gold is going to double by 2024.


----------



## mullokintyre

Hope ya right, but i have been waiting for 20 years for JPM to get collared on the COT activity, and with the current weak CFTC regime, I just can't see that changing any time soon.
Mick


----------



## rederob

Sean K said:


> *USD POG now at 1832*, above the Jul and Sep highs of 1829 and 1826 resistance points. The downward diagonal line is about the same point, so if there's a break through it beats a couple of key resistance levels. It's not an algo chart so might be off a few notches. I've read on Kitko, chartists calling 1835 the key resistance level.



Highest close since July was $1832, so Kitco's resistance at $1835 is just rounding, not that a few dollars will make much difference.
I have tracked TSI on 4 hourly charts to get an idea of how much more upside is possible, and where we are today is similar to where we stood in May.  That continued to over $1900 in June, so maybe we get a repeat before a major retracement.


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> Highest close since July was $1832, so Kitco's resistance at $1835 is just rounding, not that a few dollars will make much difference.
> I have tracked TSI on 4 hourly charts to get an idea of how much more upside is possible, and where we are today is similar to where we stood in May.  That continued to over $1900 in June, so maybe we get a repeat before a major retracement.




These guys are picking $1837...



> We have been forecasting that gold would challenge and breach $1837 by the end of 2021. We have also been forecasting that gold would challenge $1900 per ounce in gold by end of the first quarter of 2022. Although when I first put forth our short-term and longer-term forecast it seemed as though those numbers were out of reach. Considering that gold today has risen for the fourth consecutive day and as of 5:55 PM EST is fixed at $1833.80, a net gain of $5.80 and traded to a high today of $1834.80, the forecast seems more realistic than 2 months ago.


----------



## rederob

Sean K said:


> These guys are picking $1837...



Below are medium term (2 year) and short term (5 month) trend envelopes:


Short term median close at end of year is $1850.
Medium term close is well over $2000.
I personally don't yet see what would trigger POG to jump massively any time soon.  There does not seem an appetite for its safe haven status, and global markets generally are not in such bad shape to spawn a rush to gold.


----------



## explod

Well it is off to the races folks.  Report just out now of the US of a big rise in inflation.








__





						Gold & Crypto Surge As Soaring CPI Sparks Hawkish Jump In Rate-Hike Odds | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com


----------



## rederob

US markets shocked overnight by highest inflation rate - 6.2% - in over 31 years.
Gold jumped over $40 as a result, but was pared down to half that increase 6 hours later.
So the $1832 hurdle was smashed and we now want to see $1920 tumble for a continuation of the medium term trend to be locked in.





https://www.tradingview.com/x/2w8hGf0D/


----------



## Sean K

A clear break though is probably what was desired, but not expected. I thought more consolidation would have been healthier. But, perhaps there had been enough bouncy bouncy* sideways for a significant break to occur at some stage. Also perhaps once a break was happening technical traders jumped in to drive it. The levels we've been discussing have been circulating around the place. Been watching this closely since the 29 Sep low with high expectations so this is quite satisfying. Next stop is the June high at $1907.

Gold price has room to run to $1900


> (Kitco News) - The gold market is seeing new bullish momentum after U.S. inflation data rose to its highest level in more than three decades, and some analysts are looking for a move back to $1,900 an ounce in the near term.
> 
> According to some analysts, gold is catching a new bid as inflation pressures ramp up, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will be behind the inflation curve.
> 
> "Inflation is here and it's only going to get worse," said Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. "There is a major concern that the Federal Reserve is limited to what it can do to stop inflation from rising. There is a real fear among investors that the Fed will lose control."
> 
> The latest inflation data pointed to broad-based increases in consumer goods. Food was up 5.3% from a year ago – the biggest increase since January 2009. Gasoline prices surged 6.1%, marking the biggest gain since March.
> 
> The rise in inflation comes as U.S. consumers start their holiday shopping and prepare for Thanksgiving.
> 
> Helping to support gold's breakout through critical resistance at $1,835 has been a drop in real interest rates. Following the latest Consumer Price Index data, real yields on 10-year notes dropped to a record low of -1.235%.
> 
> Along with the drop in real yields the break-even rate, the difference between nominal 10-year bond yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities rose to 2.64%. Analysts note this indicates that bond markets are pricing in even more inflation risk.
> 
> While off their highs, gold prices last traded at $1,858 an ounce, up 1.5% on the day. The precious metal is currently trading at a five-month high.
> 
> Haberkorn added that he expects that this is just the start of gold's move higher. He said that his next target for gold is between $1,900 and $1,920.




*TM @finicky


----------



## Sean K

Kitko tend to see the positive side of PMs, and you don't hear too many dooms day predictions, so gold stocks* 'doubling' next year should be taken with a grain of salt. I'd be happy for 1900 for a start. And I'd prefer it didn't go there overnight but in a nice measured methodical way - consolidating, developing support, breaking, consolidating....

So, a "huge explosive move" is not what I really want right now, too much cash on the sidelines. Maybe can't afford not to be fully invested in this potential move.



> “GDX and SLV were in a bear market just a week ago,” Vermeulen said. “They have moved to a recovery stage. Now they’re in yellow, which is accumulation. They’re starting to just get some momentum in them, and they’re starting to get into another bull market. Gold should rally to $2,600. Gold miners, I think, will have a huge, explosive move.”




*edit: originally said gold doubling but article specifies gold _stocks_.


----------



## Sean K

Things are looking bullish for the next three months.

This gold price level to spark even a bigger rally – analysts​*Anna Golubova* 
Friday November 12, 2021 15:52

After a solid breakout above $1,850 an ounce, gold could be ready for even bigger gains. But first, the precious metal must breach this level, according to analysts.

Inflation accelerating to three-decade highs in the U.S. has pushed investors towards gold, with the precious metal up nearly 3% on the week and December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,865.90.

"It is all about inflation. The market is starting to embrace the fact that inflation will be longer-lasting. It will take years to fix the supply chain issues due to pandemic, all the stimulus, and tons of pent-up demand," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

All eyes will be on the $1,835-$1,875 trading range for gold. A move below would indicate the end of the current rally, while a move above could trigger a move towards $2,000 an ounce.

"What's going to be critical to sustaining this breakout is that the market can hold $1,835. We want to be able to keep the prices above there," he said. "On the other hand, a close above $1,875 would spark a secondary rally to $1,900-25. I do think we may see $2,000 by the end of this year."


----------



## Telamelo

Trade the Trend *weekly update & covers Gold chart from 9:20 onwards.. mentions possibility of Gold reaching US$2,400


----------



## finicky

You can get valuable gen on individual gold stocks and support him for less than a couple of coffee a month on https://www.patreon.com/user?u=27729908
I have no relationship, just a subscriber.


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> You can get valuable gen on individual gold stocks and support him for less than a couple of coffee a month on https://www.patreon.com/user?u=27729908
> I have no relationship, just a subscriber.





I've thought about it, but from what I've seen he doesn't give any more valuable info than our bouncy bouncy TA and FA on ASF.


----------



## Joules MM1

inflation


----------



## Sean K

Should be an interesting week for gold next week. IMO, needs some more consolidation, but word seems to be that the potential new Fed Gov may be a catalyst for another jump. _Should_ see some support around the blue circle for another bound higher. Breaking down through $1830 support and the upward break needs to be reconsidered. 

From Kitco


> "Looking to next week, we are going to get Biden's decision. Two months ago, Powell was the likely choice. But we got the trading scandal among Fed members and progressives got upset with how Powell handled the regulatory side," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "Now, it seems that Powell's renomination might not be a foregone confusion. If we do get a surprise and Brainard becomes the next Fed Chair, it will have a dramatic shift in short-term yields. That's a big risk ahead. Key factor what happens with yields early next week."
> 
> If Biden were to choose Brainard, gold would climb higher as the initial reaction would see those Fed rate hike expectations pushed back even further, Moya explained. However, if Powell is renominated, it doesn't necessarily mean gold would sell off dramatically. "Risk is still to the upside," he said.


----------



## Sean K

Sean K said:


> Should be an interesting week for gold next week. IMO, needs some more consolidation, but word seems to be that the potential new Fed Gov may be a catalyst for another jump. _Should_ see some support around the blue circle for another bound higher. Breaking down through $1830 support and the upward break needs to be reconsidered.




Well, that put a spanner amongst the pigeons. The same Gov has been nominated who was not what gold bugs were looking for. Back to the drawing board short term for what has been a solid run for POG. Not sure if this can be reversed quickly unless this is seen as a buying opportunity and the weekly chart rebounds back above $1830.


----------



## mullokintyre

The fed  has a lot of protecting to do.
It has to protect the large commercial banks, protect the  share market, protect the Bond market.
The PM market does not rate a mention.
Mick


----------



## Joules MM1

RBNZ increase OCR 25BP > .75%


----------



## Joules MM1

mullokintyre said:


> The fed  has a lot of protecting to do.
> It has to protect the large commercial banks, protect the  share market, protect the Bond market.
> The PM market does not rate a mention.
> Mick



pretty sure if the bond market goes belly up we all go belly up, fed wont make any difference


----------



## DannyB0000

It’s hard to tell which direction Gold is taking, commentators are suggesting Gold will do much better in 2022, back above $2000.  The USD is stubbornly high though.  Am still holding NST share from October 2020 and have recently bought NCM shares as long term holds.


----------



## Sean K

DannyB0000 said:


> It’s hard to tell which direction Gold is taking, commentators are suggesting Gold will do much better in 2022, back above $2000.  The USD is stubbornly high though.  Am still holding NST share from October 2020 and have recently bought NCM shares as long term holds.




Unless there's a dramatic turn around this week, USD POG is back in it's sideways range from last year. It was travelling so neatly for a proper break up as well. The longer the sideways movement though, the bigger a break up will probably be.


----------



## finicky

Jordan Roy Byrne was pretty much tipping this. He seemed very lukewarm on the chance of it breaking through 1900. He's a good follow for remaining sobre and patient about gold.
Needn't stop us investing in A$ goldies though.


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> Jordan Roy Byrne was pretty much tipping this. He seemed very lukewarm on the chance of it breaking through 1900. He's a good follow for remaining sobre and patient about gold.
> Needn't stop us investing in A$ goldies though.




He can post up here if he likes finicky.


----------



## DaveTrade

*Is Gold Finally Ready to Shine?*

By Mike ReillyNovember 23, 2021​
Last week, an *ADAPT Weekly* reader asked about my thoughts regarding investing in Gold…

Not that my opinion is all that important – remember, the only thing that pays to watch is price.

I’ll say it again:* If you’re going to pay attention to anything, pay attention to price*.

So here’s the scoop…

We’ve avoided gold for more than a year now, and for good reason – it was a chronic underperformer (as you’ll see in a moment).

However, there are signs that this underperformance could be changing.

Not only are gold futures moving higher in absolute terms, but they’re also finding support at a perfectly logical place relative to their alternatives.

*It’s this Relative Strength that investors will want to know about.*

Here’s what I mean – using Gold versus Commodities as an example.




Over the last year, the strength out of Commodities has made it difficult for anything to show relative outperformance.

You can see how Gold underperformed Commodities. See that line moving from upper left to lower right?

That’s a downtrend, ladies and gentlemen. Gold is showing a massive underperformance versus Commodities.

With that said, Gold looks like it’s trying to hold above a key area of former resistance that may become support. Makes sense, as this would be a logical level for gold to stop underperforming.

Now obviously, the market doesn’t care about my potential support and resistance lines. But as an investor, you’ll want to at least be aware of these areas of support or resistance and follow them closely for any sign of additional improvement or deterioration.

A strong reversal up from these levels indicates relative outperformance by Gold versus Commodities. And where we see relative outperformance, we also tend to find absolute outperformance.

We’re seeing improvements in other cross-asset comparisons as well – it’s not just limited to commodities. The picture looks similar when looking at the Stocks versus Gold ratio as it runs a key Fibonacci level.




What we’re seeing here is stocks losing Relative Strength versus Gold right at 2.80.

At the same time, Stock’s momentum is trending down, as seen in the lower panel.

So, assuming Gold can begin to exhibit real strength on a relative basis – how should investors get involved?

One way is through the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). Another option is via gold miners.

In the chart below you can see how the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) recently bounced off a key area of former resistance now acting as potential support.




If GDX holds above 31, there’s some interesting upside here.

I already know what’s coming after you read this week’s article… I’m expecting several emails to the effect of…

_“Nice timing Reilly, guess you didn’t see the price chart of GLD yesterday…”_

Yes, I saw it and I’m aware that GLD slid 4% on the day.

So let me remind you – reversals of relative strength are a process, not a one-time event.

*We’re interested in the trend, not a single day’s price action.*

It’s too soon to anoint Gold as the Relative Strength victor, just as it’s too soon to claim Gold is dead in the water.

The point for investors like yourselves is to keep an open mind and be aware of changing relationships in Relative Strength.


----------



## KevinBB

Personally, I don't care which direction gold goes, up or down. I just wish it would make up its mind where it is going.

Each time it changes direction I lose a few more hairs off my head. Its been my biggest trend following loser this year.

KH


----------



## finicky

Peter Grandich just announced that he has started sand-bagging with gold and silver against dire events to come. He has a record of foresightful macro calls if you believe him, which I do. E.g anticipated the recent uranium stocks revival. He has a buying plan for the pnysical metals whereas in the past when making a call on the precious metals he has gone for miners with a view to profitable trading rather than retreating to the bunker.

"On the belief that the greatest financial bubble of all-time is on its last legs, and America is now deeply entrenched in it’s worst-ever economic, social and political crisis, I now wish to own gold and silver not just for capital appreciation in mining shares, but also in lieu of keeping some cash in currency.

My strategy now is:

Gold – buy a third today, another third if it retrests to around $1,700 and the last third if it falls back to it’s 200-Day M.A. around $1,600

Silver – buy a third today, another third on a retreat to around $22.50 and the remaining third around $21.50"









						Peter Grandich & Company | Retirement, Business and Estate Planning
					

Have a question or comment?




					petergrandich.com


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> Peter Grandich just announced that he has started sand-bagging with gold and silver against dire events to come.




I follow his YouTube channel and it was interesting that he even recently sold out of his uranium stocks (even though still long term bullish) in order to cash up for the inevitable gold and silver run.


----------



## wayneL

My crystal ball prognostications for what they are worth:

I still see the debt market blowing the fark up at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Of course this is bullish for precious metals. But the typical course of events is a hard sell off, as cash comes out of all assets to meet margin calls and what not.

I've already got a crapper load of pm's, much of which at which I considered to be minimum value at the time... circa 1200 for gold, but have been conservatively adding to since then.

But I also have a war chest of cash and if my hypothesis proves correct I will become irresponsibly long on gold silver and platinum. (Not a holder of platinum at the moment but seriously considering it at this hypothesised juncture).

Fwiw


----------



## finicky

^^ Same crystal ball


----------



## mullokintyre

kinda surprised that some of the Oz gold stocks did not go up today,
POG is up 35 bucks as the AUD has gone down.
At 2525 , it is well above the sort of prices seen last quarter.
Timing gold sales will be important.
mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> kinda surprised that some of the Oz gold stocks did not go up today,
> POG is up 35 bucks as the AUD has gone down.
> At 2525 , it is well above the sort of prices seen last quarter.
> Timing gold sales will be important.
> mick




The majority did, but a lot just went with the scaredy cats jumping with the lemmings.

I expected the XGD to stop in the blue circle but extended correction to the bottom of the current channel. Momentum is a concern.

edit: system won't let me put up the chart. Wait, out.


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price @ $2,515 +1.09% overnight whilst Oil smashed -13.04% is "good news" for our Goldie's as reduced energy costs means higher cash flow $$ margins 

Lower energy costs are the single most important factor for Gold miner's along with rising AUD Gold price.

P.S. Glad I "topped up" on WMC, OGC and SLR last week


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> Jordan Roy Byrne was pretty much tipping this. He seemed very lukewarm on the chance of it breaking through 1900. He's a good follow for remaining sobre and patient about gold.
> Needn't stop us investing in A$ goldies though.




His latest on Kitco.

Interesting back analysis on gold linked to Fed rate hikes:


----------



## Sean K

For the gold double bottom to be in we can't afford the first significant higher low to be beaten, IMO. So, fingers crossed this second higher low being established holds for another leg up.


----------



## rederob

POG depends on perspective ATM.
Here's the "bottom's up" - based on a 4-hourly chart:


And now the daily perspective, which is "top down":


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> POG depends on perspective ATM.



Agree, there's definitely a medium term sideways down from the high, then the short term potential start of the break up. We needed to hold above $1835 to maintain the potential break up. That is now going to be tough to break on the way back up, as you indicate.


----------



## Sean K

Kitko can be a bit bullish on PMs at times, but this one takes the cake.


----------



## StockyGuy

hopefully not $500 gold and $10 silver   But no one REALLY knows what will happen, do they?  Hence, the principle of diversification.


----------



## DannyB0000

Sean K said:


> Kitko can be a bit bullish on PMs at times, but this one takes the cake.
> 
> View attachment 133704
> 
> 
> View attachment 133706



In the 70’s Gold went from $35 to $850 by the end of the decade so anything’s possible.


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> Hope ya right, but i have been waiting for 20 years for JPM to get collared on the COT activity, and with the current weak CFTC regime, I just can't see that changing any time soon.
> Mick



 JPM has been 'collared '  several times  each time it has been a slap with a damp lettuce leaf  , what really needs to happen is say six ( or more ) senior  management go to jail for 10 years ( or more ) AND a REAL financial penalty  ,  something that wipes out three or four years total trading profits ( on all commodities/derivatives )

 but will that happen in my lifetime , probably not


----------



## divs4ever

StockyGuy said:


> hopefully not $500 gold and $10 silver   But no one REALLY knows what will happen, do they?  Hence, the principle of diversification.



 those prices are NOT a bad thing  IF you have cash AND can get physical delivery  ( it can be amazing the waiting times when gold is really cheap )


----------



## StockyGuy

divs4ever said:


> those prices are NOT a bad thing  IF you have cash AND can get physical delivery  ( it can be amazing the waiting times when gold is really cheap )



Yep, and I do agree it would look like a "golden" opportunity... but it doesn't mean it won't halve again after that and never even return to break even within the buyer's life time.

You're viewing a drop to those levels as some temporary aberration - whereas it could mean a fundamental re-evaluation of the worth of the precious metals.

(I wonder if something like this happens to Bitcoin, would I buy in?  Say it dropped to 20k USD would I view to it as the opportunity of a lifetime...or merely the chance to be one of the last patsies holding the bag as the whole retarded concept sinks like the Titanic into permanent oblivion.  Personally I think I'd steer clear of any crypto "bargains".)

Unsurprisingly, as I think most here are, I am definitely bullish on gold price.  I don't even dismiss the numbers in that article as such - it's just that predictions for a decade into the future aren't very useful now are they?  It's sorta anyone's guess territory.  The "prophet" is often retired, moved on, dead, or at the least everyone's forgotten he/she made the predictions (he'll remind them if he got it right lol).


----------



## Sean K

StockyGuy said:


> Unsurprisingly, as I think most here are, I am definitely bullish on gold price.  I don't even dismiss the numbers in that article as such - it's just that predictions for a decade into the future aren't very useful now are they?  It's sorta anyone's guess territory.  The "prophet" is often retired, moved on, dead, or at the least everyone's forgotten he/she made the predictions (he'll remind them if he got it right lol).




Agree, in a decade the World could change dramatically. Might be using a Chinese digital currency as the World currency by then and gold is just bling for rappers.  

But, I'm betting on the status quo for now. 

I'd be very happy if this happened in this decade:



DannyB0000 said:


> In the 70’s Gold went from $35 to $850 by the end of the decade so anything’s possible.




What would that make gold in todays prices?


----------



## Ann

I cannot vouch for this inflation-adjusted chart, I put it here  simply for your interest @Sean K

"On this chart, I increased, corrected the historical gold price with the US consumer price index (CPIAUCSL/260.33). Calculating the value of the past gold prices on the actual price level. (Inflation-adjusted gold price.)

The result is, the 2011 all-time high in the gold price, by approximately 1,911 USD, is 2,204 USD worth on the actual price level, today. And the January 1980 highs, near $900 is $2,912 worth in today’s dollars!

Of course, that means nothing for the future, doesn’t guarantee any further price movements. But, if we take into account the difference between the present and future value of money, it shows that the price of gold has not actually reached a new peak this year. (Although, there are many arguments why this should happen. And the opposite, too.) The actual level of cold seems to be less scary to me."


----------



## divs4ever

i don't consider myself  as bullish on gold , more ultra-bearish on the US Dollar ( and other fiat currencies )

 i have seen the rare comparisons to say gold and the average US home  ( and that isn't so flattering for gold currently  , but then maybe that home is of lesser quality than decades ago , so maybe just blah for a well constructed home  )

 while gold is the high profile commodity  don't neglect  silver , copper , platinum , rice , salt  and many others 

 i expect Central Banks to do even more crazy things to make the currencies and bonds look strong at the expense of gold and silver  ( maybe even invest in cryptos to distract from the enduring value of precious metals ) they have already tried  buying bonds , corporate debt  , mortgages , stocks and ETFs  , and i can't see the Fed  adding  a barn for prime stud cattle )

 i would be watching the  'take-home prices'  and availability of gold and silver  rather than the market prices which are most likely manipulated  as least as much as the comparison currency 

 there was an old Ronnie Barker sketch about how cheap his prices were  in his shop  , but all the specials were out of stock and he had no idea when  the products would arrive ( very much like the current futures market )


----------



## Ann

divs4ever said:


> there was an old Ronnie Barker sketch about how cheap his prices were in his shop , but all the specials were out of stock and he had no idea when the products would arrive ( very much like the current futures market )



Hmmm just like Woolies as well!


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price shot up overnight to $2,546 +2.15%  

I'm banking/betting on it reaching $3,000+  reason am fully loaded/invested in WMC, SLR & OGC as such Aussie Gold producer's would be making insane cash flow $$ margins if this eventuates.

Bigger player's like NCM, EVN & NST would rocket much higher as well.

https://goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/aud


----------



## finicky

Arresting graphic I saw on twitter


----------



## divs4ever

i would prefer it meandering around like it is currently , but then i am carefully adding gold producer stocks ( i am biased )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold is being affected by Crypto, of that I have no doubt.

Should the stock markets crash, I would expect Crypto to crash as well as house prices while geopolitical tensions will rise.

Or any combination of the above.

Should this happen I would prefer to hold neither Crypto nor Tulips but gold as punters have done for millennia.

This is pure opinion and sentiment.

There are so many last chance saloon investment entities about atm it is impossible to keep up with them.

Gold will do for me.

gg


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold is being affected by Crypto, of that I have no doubt.
> 
> Should the stock markets crash, I would expect Crypto to crash as well as house prices while geopolitical tensions will rise.
> 
> Or any combination of the above.
> 
> Should this happen I would prefer to hold neither Crypto nor Tulips but gold as punters have done for millennia.
> 
> This is pure opinion and sentiment.
> 
> There are so many last chance saloon investment entities about atm it is impossible to keep up with them.
> 
> Gold will do for me.
> 
> gg




 i think cryptos fate will depend on who has leveraged assets  , i know one young player  that  only trades/swaps cryptos  and i would be surprised if he was playing with credit 

 before the crypto bubble  , each crash had a reliable  progression  those with leverage/debt  sold down what they could  to resist a margin call/bankruptcy  and the most liquid assets sold first  , gold was among those assets , and the nervous sold as well into a falling market triggering stop-losses and attracting short-sellers 

 from what i have seen ( in history books ) on recent crashes  the sellers rush for US dollars  or what currency their debt is denominated in 

 ( if they have no debt  the panic-sellers , well the brave ones , try to buy more stocks somewhere close to the bottom )


  ( some of the shares i hold might not  trade more than six times  a year  , but i have no leverage so that is fine by me  , i am more likely to buy extra than sell )

 now sure the crypto game has changed  a bit with ETFs betting on crypto futures  , but if you hold your cryptos  in a cold wallet ( or your gold coins in a shoebox in your wardrobe )  only the dollar value changes  and IF you can afford to wait until the dust settles , there might be a silver lining  to all that fuss 

 houses might be the second punch as property  doesn't normally sell ( settle ) quickly  but the selling might cause the second wave of asset selling  as those using the property as collateral will face extra challenges 

 this all sounds complicated  , but if this economy goes pear shaped things are liable to get messy ( very messy )


----------



## DannyB0000

Bitcoin crashed again overnight, down more than 17% $10,000 in 24 hours.


----------



## divs4ever

watch out for sheer trickery since some ETFs  are trading using BTC futures ( just like they do with silver )


----------



## Telamelo

US dollar is due for a pullback/correction as overbought stochastics/rsi etc.  this in turn should be bullish for Gold imo


----------



## Sean K

First sign of a recovery to me. A break up and higher low.


----------



## DaveTrade

The light blue lines on this chart are Finonacci Time and Price lines. I haven't traded using these lines but I thought I'd post this for interest. As can be seen, time is running out.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> The light blue lines on this chart are Finonacci Time and Price lines. I haven't traded using these lines but I thought I'd post this for interest. As can be seen, time is running out.




This short term block of support looks important. If it breaks down then the fib lines might indicate a decent drop. If it holds and bounces, otherwise.


----------



## Joules MM1

New York Times:



> BREAKING NEWS
> Inflation hit the highest rate in a generation last month. Consumer prices rose nearly 7%, driven by supply chain woes, demand and housing costs.
> 
> Friday, December 10, 2021 8:35 AM EST
> 
> The rising costs spell trouble for officials at the Federal Reserve and the White House, who are trying to calibrate policy at a moment when the labor market has yet to completely heal from the pandemic.
> 
> The risk that price increases could become more lasting is increasing.


----------



## DaveTrade

*Update on last post


*
*


*


----------



## Joules MM1

of the opine that we are seeing a concerted effort to shake out players who arrived recently and buying ($xauusd) 
 the never-ending dip that are betting on a rip north on inflation data



Reuters Business
@ReutersBiz
·
1h

WATCH: The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq tumbled after data showed producer prices increased more than expected in November and ahead of a potential decision on faster tapering from the Federal Reserve this week https://reut.rs/3yp3iCV


----------



## Joules MM1

UK inflation


----------



## Sean K

So, we're dropping down to a key support line now. Will the technical traders buy, or will the big banks/manipulators send it down?

At some point, it has to complete the upward trend after consolidation, as has been spelled out ad nauseam through the threads.

Looks like a H&S could be forming here. eeeek.

Another buying opportunity may unfold, for those who have been stockpiling $$$.


----------



## divs4ever

yes i am thinking they will suppress , suppress and suppress until their currencies  have no purchasing power  ( but will it result in substantially   lower prices in the stacker's hands )


----------



## DaveTrade




----------



## Sean K

It's been a good bounce of that support zone, for the minute. 1835 is going to be tough once again, if it can even get above 1810-15. 🤞🤞


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Good posts all.

Once gold takes off it blisters. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Santa rally with the recent surge from $1771.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Failed at first resistance around 1810-15 as expected, but another OK day for goldies. Feeling positive after the bounce off tech support, but it might be shorts at JPM covering their butts too. Aug/Sep double bottom still in for now.


----------



## Sean K

After failing just below 1815, back below the psychological 1800 mark, atm. The eighth floor of the JPM building must have stepped in to switch their covers.

Once again, sideways bias until 1835 breached again, or that support line fails.

I think @DaveTrade 's chart is probably still on the bullish side.


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> After failing just below 1815, back below the psychological 1800 mark, atm. The eighth floor of the JPM building must have stepped in to switch their covers.



Stopped reading the COT reports a while back, just sends my BP up.
I do not need any more convincing of the corruption of the US driven  PM market.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> Stopped reading the COT reports a while back, just sends my BP up.
> I do not need any more convincing of the corruption of the US driven  PM market.
> Mick




They will decide to switch long at some point, once they've earned enough with the side-down bias. I think I read somewhere they made $2b trading PMs last year. The glory of a paper-digital market.


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> They will decide to switch long at some point, once they've earned enough with the side-down bias. I think I read somewhere they made $2b trading PMs last year. The glory of a paper-digital market.



2bn!!
That wouldn't even pay the fines the Ba$tard$ get every year from the SEC, FOMC and sundry other FLAS and TLAs.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

I am a td confused.
The gold price in AUD terms is comfortably up above 2500  mark again, as a combination of a slight rise in gold in the US and a fall in the AUD v USD.
And yet, virtually all gold stocks have been hammered today.
Is this a setup or what?
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> I am a td confused.
> The gold price in AUD terms is comfortably up above 2500  mark again, as a combination of a slight rise in gold in the US and a fall in the AUD v USD.
> And yet, virtually all gold stocks have been hammered today.
> Is this a setup or what?
> Mick




It's an interesting phenomenon isn't it. Someone has probably done a study on whether stocks follow their individual fundamentals and tech support, or just go with the general market. There's probably tipping points where they go one way or the other. Richard Thaler might have researched it.


----------



## Joules MM1

for the long-only crowd


----------



## mullokintyre

It will be interesting to see what happens when the OZ gold producers  bring out their quarterlies early next year.
Given the gold price for the December quarter has been mostly above 2500 for the quarter, the free cash generation should get a boos for all of them, except for those who  have embarked on big capex or  are finding their costs rising as fast or faster than the gold price.
Maybe some short term profits to be made.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

Holding above 1800 is positive for a potential break to the upside with a higher low but this channel will be hard to get out of. Breaking 1815 to the upside looks important. Needs a higher high above that mark.


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				



the above does carry (lag-time/phase) a correlation - causation - maybe - maybe not !
US inflation scrip hat-tip to @NeoButane TV





that large daily triangle (horizontal bottom) thingy looking better as a sell than a buy


----------



## Joules MM1

this is one of those "so what could this story be saying"
doubt its a function of the tracking fund, rather  the participants are anticipating the underlying
if that's true(?) then what does that say about the most recent activity ?








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



$GCC v $CRB 


> GCC is a long-only commodity strategy providing actively-managed exposure to four broad commodity sectors: *Energy, Agriculture, Industrial Metals, and Precious Metals via related futures contracts*.


----------



## rederob

Here's where POG went in 2021:


A quick aside: On POG's first day of trading in 2021 it jumped over $45 from its 2020 end year closing price.  That bounce was very short lived!
The adage for POG taking the stairs up and the lift down could hardly be clearer in 2021.  On 3 occasions it crashed through trading ranges in excess of $100 in 3 short days before recovering.
POG's chart has worked itself into a wedge throughout the year with a series of lower highs and higher lows as the year drew to a close.
Clearly there will be a pattern breakout and my thoughts favour an upside based on continuing inflation worries that have barely worked their way into global markets.
Pushing the long term trend envelope out to 2023 we see this:


----------



## Sean K

Broken 1815 indicating short term upward bias. Still well in the long term pennant going sideways. Hitting a little resistance at 1830 now. Been a good bounce off the bottom support.


----------



## Ann

Now for the final quarter for gold on the quarterly chart. Crikey that was a nail-biting finish. So many times I was tempted to yell 'timber'.  It kept falling off and getting back on that rising support line over the quarter.

It is now riding in a rising wedge pattern which makes me think further down the track there will be a bit of a fall out below the wedge but as I said on the chart as long as it stays above the $1780 level it should move higher after a quick re-test of 1780 support. May only test the 200dsma which the POG now has its head just above (not shown).


----------



## Sean K

That 'little resistance' at 1830 now turning into the Great Wall....


----------



## Sean K

Gold has lost it's short term upward trend. Broken a couple of support lines. Needs to hold above the the horizontal / 1790 ish level or it's more sideways / down hill.


----------



## DannyB0000

Gold is $1788 USD heading South, not good for Gold shares.  Crypto is being sold off as well.


----------



## Sean K

DannyB0000 said:


> Gold is $1788 USD heading South, not good for Gold shares.  Crypto is being sold off as well.




Held on to the support line, as you would expect. Looks tenuous though. 1790 ish looks like a bot play.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Held on to the support line, as you would expect. Looks tenuous though. 1790 ish looks like a bot play.
> 
> View attachment 135400



AFR article is bearish on gold which must make it a buy. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> AFR article is bearish on gold which must make it a buy.
> 
> gg




They heard you GG.

Bulls and bears are trading support and resistance lines at the moment. JP Morgan undoubtably doing both!

I would love to be a fly on the wall of their daily strategy meetings.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> They heard you GG.
> 
> Bulls and bears are trading support and resistance lines at the moment. JP Morgan undoubtably doing both!
> 
> I would love to be a fly on the wall of their daily strategy meetings.
> 
> View attachment 135471



Thanks @Sean K for the great charts and your posts on Gold. 

Gold bugs will be vindicated imo. 

Governments have printed so much money over the last 2 years. 

Crypto is another form of printed money for the Tulip brigade. It is in the ether just like Government debt. 

It will be called in this year or next when there is a crash, interest rates go up and inflation takes off. 

Anyone from Ole Joe Biden to the Foxy Crypto Spruikers will not be able to put their fingers in the dam wall.

gg


----------



## TechnoCap

Based on the current activity on gold price where are the big kahunas in here with their bold predictions on a likely gold price by end of 2022?


----------



## Trader X

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Crypto is another form of printed money for the Tulip brigade. It is in the ether just like Government debt.
> 
> It will be called in this year or next when there is a crash, interest rates go up and inflation takes off.
> 
> Anyone from Ole Joe Biden to the Foxy Crypto Spruikers will not be able to put their fingers in the dam wall.



And as interest rates rise and rise on government debt (absent another QEx backflip by the Fed), the crypto dam wall (already leaking) will collapse in a spectacular fashion.  Don't underestimate the creativity of crypto spin doctors though as they urge hodlers to weather the crash. Bitcoin maximalists like Michael Saylor (including his company, MicroStrategy) stand to lose crypto paper fortunes if they can't steady the nerves of hodlers watching Bitcoin's price crater.  The narratives conjured to explain away such an event should make for interesting reading.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

TechnoCap said:


> Based on the current activity on gold price where are the big kahunas in here with their bold predictions on a likely gold price by end of 2022?



I'm a small kahuna but will answer anyway before the big ones get in.

Good question @TechnoCap. 

My guess would be $US2100 which is about the high of 2020 in quite short order remembering that Gold has been traditionally a haven of safety which for some reason has been overtaken by Crypto. If some more geopolitical problem or further plague(s) intervene it could be much higher. 

As always with speculation, it depends.

gg


----------



## noirua

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm a small kahuna but will answer anyway before the big ones get in.
> 
> Good question @TechnoCap.
> 
> My guess would be $US2100 which is about the high of 2020 in quite short order remembering that Gold has been traditionally a haven of safety which for some reason has been overtaken by Crypto. If some more geopolitical problem or further plague(s) intervene it could be much higher.
> 
> As always with speculation, it depends.
> 
> gg



Guessing the gold price at the close of play on Friday 30 December 2022 is a lot different to forecasting the high or low point some time during the year. It is also a guesstimate on the strength of the US$ during the year. In 1973 - 1976 the major gold shares more than doubled whilst the stock markets slid 50% to 70%. In 1987 the stock markets crashed and gold shares crashed as well.  The 1987 crash was quick and 1973 - 1976 was slow and that might have something to do with it.

The UK's FTSE 100 index was at 6,930 during the 2000 peak. It only stands at 7,485 21 years later though the DOW 40 has climbed and climbed from 10,730 in 2,000 to 36,800 in 2022.  Quite a difference though many may point out the UK's index has become a worldwide confusion of companies in that time. Meanwhile the ASX200 was at 3,133 in 2000 and 6607 in 2022.

In the end I expect gold to reach a high of about US$2,350 in 2022 and silver about US$38.


----------



## divs4ever

TechnoCap said:


> Based on the current activity on gold price where are the big kahunas in here with their bold predictions on a likely gold price by end of 2022?



 i am thinking gold will continue to be suppressed ( as long as they can )   i would be watching gold and silver  premiums ( for those taking physical delivery  ) as a truer guide 

since i am accumulating  gold producers   i would be happy if the price continued to be suppressed for a while longer (  HOWEVER how long can that manipulation last ?? )


----------



## divs4ever

i have a couple of  buddies playing the crytpos ( both ACTIVELY trading ) and am amazed at their complex strategies  , now sure they are probably only playing with something like $500 to $1,000 ,  until they get more experience  , but nah not for me ( but then i could never get to like poker machines either )

 i would rather gold producers  , and bit of the physical ( non-bullion )  stuff 

 maybe i should BUY some silver coins as well  ( but am still thinking on that )


----------



## ducati916

A couple of charts:

Of the 2 monetary metals, gold is a cleaner chart, mostly because there have been and continue to be, major purchases from the CBs. Silver is far more volatile and at current valuations is the cheaper of the 2.




Gold is probably going to break higher in 2022. It has simply been correcting through time.

As compared to silver:




Whose valuation to gold, is very low. Historically, on average, it's as cheap as it gets.

I hold a significant amount of silver currently. At the lower boundary I will convert that silver to gold. PSLV to PHYS and silver bullion to gold bullion, which can be completed at bullion dealers.

The reason:

The idea is, with a portion of your portfolio, to exit fiat currencies on a permanent basis. Two reasons (a) fiat currencies are continuously being debased and (b) the king of the fiats, DXY, may not actually survive the next crisis. Stocks are priced and paid in fiat. Stocks to a point are inflationary hedges (as are many assets) but in a hyper-inflationary collapse of a fiat, they come pretty close to worthless for a long period of time (those that actually survive).

So gold becomes your insurance policy, silver becomes the speculative tool to profit.







As you can see, gold has tracked really well during the high inflationary period, last 50+yrs. Silver not so well, unless there is a crisis, which then allows on a % basis, outperformance (see ratio chart).

It has been a while since the 2008 crisis and even longer from the inflationary crisis of the late 1960's into 1980. There are no Paul Volckers sitting in the Fed. Additionally, the debt levels/GDP from the 1970's to today are starkly different:




Therefore the ability to actually do what Mr Volcker did, raise rates above the level of inflation, was possible due to the low(er) level of Federal debt. Today, the US and most of the world are at WWII levels.

Politicians, being who they are, will favour the 'inflate' our way out of trouble, as they did in the 1945 - 1980 period. The result will be an inflationary crisis like the 1968 - 1980 period, with the risk of a hyper-inflationary progression, collapsing the fiat currency.

For the underlying fundamentals:




Mine production of metals has been falling, reducing supply. This lack of supply cannot be corrected quickly, nor cheaply. It requires a lot of capital. The only way capital is attracted to the sector is through higher prices (demand).

With silver, higher prices creates new supply through people selling their silver that their great aunt Fanny has held since 1878. This is another reason that it makes sense to convert when the gold/silver ratio falls to the lower boundary.


jog on
duc


----------



## Logique2

The POG is the canary in the coal mine isn't it.  Like Garpal, I have more faith in it than crypto. Or tulips.

I'll be watching it very closely this year.

The industry line is that in 2022 interest rates will rise, causing POG to soften.


----------



## Sean K

Logique2 said:


> The POG is the canary in the coal mine isn't it.  Like Garpal, I have more faith in it than crypto. Or tulips.




But, if you invested in Tulips in 1630 and sold in 1636 you might have done ok.

But yes, I also have more faith in PMs. 

Is this thought an old paradigm however?


----------



## ducati916

Logique2 said:


> The POG is the canary in the coal mine isn't it.  Like Garpal, I have more faith in it than crypto. Or tulips.
> 
> I'll be watching it very closely this year.
> 
> The industry line is that in 2022 interest rates will rise, causing POG to soften.




Don't worry about interest rates. The CBs cannot raise them. Even if they could, the real rate would need to be strongly positive before there would be any issues.

Look at the history:




Gold:







If you look at stocks however, they entered a brutal 12yr bear market.

jog on
duc


----------



## Trader X

ducati916 said:


> Don't worry about interest rates. The CBs cannot raise them. Even if they could, the real rate would need to be strongly positive before there would be any issues.



Currently the U.S. real interest rate (blue line) is -6.43%, nominal is 0.43% with inflation still rising.  Official inflation calculation grossly understates real inflation so the real rate is actually lower.  The Fed will can not raise nominal rates to bring the real rate positive without crashing markets.  You would think this scenario should be supportive for gold and silver prices in 2022.


----------



## Sean K

The new short term S&R lines are firming up a little. 1770 and 1830 ish. Bias seems back up in the short term from mid-Dec.


----------



## DaveTrade

Taking a fresh look at the technical big picture in Gold, the market still has no trend so expect support and resistance zones to hold.


----------



## ducati916

And an alternative method:

ATR




Traditional










Looking bullish to me.

jog on
duc


----------



## mullokintyre

Last nights inflation result  had some interesting aspects.
In recent times, when thoughts of tapering  or announcements about higher inflation appear, there has been a tendency for investors to run to safe haven of the USD, and sometimes the PM prices have actually fallen.
Last night was different.
The USD AUD pair was off a100 points, the DJIA up a pizzly 38 points, and the PM's inched higher.
Are the markets starting to think the USD is going to get crunched??
If thats the case, inflation will likely keep going up, unless the Chinese decide to keep the Yuan pegged at or below current levels.
As if the world was not already full of uncertainties, a few more are added.
The markets hate uncertainties, I am betting that  this is part of the "Big Reset".
Mick


----------



## Sean K

Gold backing off 1830 again, so far, in overnight trading. Not sure what the Fed says next that would cause a jump, or slide. Maybe just the big banks playing with themselves.


----------



## Sean K

$1830 ish is major trouble, but the more it pushes against it, fails, and eventually goes through, the larger the jump, in TA probabilities. Still short term upside bias from the end of Sep, medium term sideways, long term up. JPM have a team controlling this, but they will let it run at some stage.


----------



## qldfrog

ducati916 said:


> And an alternative method:
> 
> ATR
> 
> View attachment 135612
> 
> 
> Traditional
> 
> View attachment 135613
> 
> 
> View attachment 135614
> 
> 
> View attachment 135615
> 
> 
> Looking bullish to me.
> 
> jog on
> duc



this is a type of chart which means nothing to me visually.l
I am sure it has merits to some: after all the info is there but my brain draw a blank looking at these


----------



## frugal.rock

Sean K said:


> JPM have a team controlling this, but they will let it run at some stage.



Looks like the prep work has happened... 😏

1 week chart showing Fridays effort in results 

😂


----------



## ducati916

So one of the issues in the gold and silver markets, particularly now, or rather specifically now post Basel III is the split between the physical OTC market and the COMEX futures market. The OTC market is opaque and difficult to get a read on. It is however crucial because the historical tamping down of the gold and silver prices was essentially an arbitrage for the Bullion banks (BB) using paper gold: ie. they did not need to hold physical gold for delivery. Now they do or pay margin for the paper, which makes the whole exercise rather pointless.

The BB are still active in the OTC market, but nowhere as near active as they need to hold physical deliverable to hold a hedged position if short on the COMEX. This is the reason for the halving of OI.

Central Banks have been consistent buyers in the market:






In chart 1, look at the last reason provided for purchase. This is being driven by China & Russia. China in particular have under-reported their physical holdings for decades.




Looking at production data:




China does not export gold. It does however import gold. Estimates of PBOC holdings range up to 20,000 tonnes.

The selling pressure in Gold (and Silver) has evaporated.






If you track the data, which I do in silver (but not in gold) you can see that the selling pressure is as about as low as it gets. Essentially the games boil down to bid pulling and some spoofing at EMAs etc.

The continuation in the bull market in gold/silver is probably just round the corner in Q2.

jog on
duc


----------



## Sean K

It's going to be interesting to see how the big traders respond when gold goes back through $1830 again. Do they let it go, or go into sell mode? There're buyers just under this level waiting for the answer. Maybe Ash Barty wining tonight is a sign for gold.


----------



## rederob

Nice rise overnight with a breakout to the upside looking likely:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The perfect setup for us Gold mavens would be for POG to push through $USD1850 at the same time as Bitcoin dives below $40,000 on volume.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The perfect setup for us Gold mavens would be for POG to push through $USD1850 at the same time as Bitcoin dives below $40,000 on volume.
> 
> gg




Nice break through 1830, need a weekly close above that level I think for a good run at the last high of 1865. Agree on the crypto issue, I think a lot of PM money has gone into that World that might have been going to gold speculation and hedge.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Nice break through 1830, need a weekly close above that level I think for a good run at the last high of 1865. Agree on the crypto issue, I think a lot of PM money has gone into that World that might have been going to gold speculation and hedge.



Agree.

If I were a proper crook, I mean big-time, Mafia, Calabria, Politician, Financial Adviser,  I would be working full time trying to steal everyone else's crypto. BIT, ETH the whole lot. It can be done with a few taps on a keyboard or will be soon.

I have no doubt that Gold is the pre-eminent hedge against Plague, War, Famine and Tempest. 

Not to mention another Krakatoa. 

gg


----------



## CityIndex

The close above $1835 is a positive sign for gold, and can keep pushing upwards  if investors continue to fear the erosion of fiat currencies amid record high inflation. However, the precious metal still needs to break above downtrend resistance near $1850 in order to sustain a larger move higher. 

All trading carries risk, but it's definitely worth keeping an eye on how gold prices move in relation to the yield curve leading up to the first rate hike by the Fed.


----------



## wayneL

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree.
> 
> If I were a proper crook, I mean big-time, Mafia, Calabria, Politician, Financial Adviser,  I would be working full time trying to steal everyone else's crypto. BIT, ETH the whole lot. It can be done with a few taps on a keyboard or will be soon.
> 
> I have no doubt that Gold is the pre-eminent hedge against Plague, War, Famine and Tempest.
> 
> Not to mention another Krakatoa.
> 
> gg



As long as it's physical hanging by a bit bailing twine in a sock in your septic system where nobody can find it (and no one wants to look anyway lol)

Electronic or etf versions are subject to the same risks as crypto, really.


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> As long as it's physical hanging by a bit bailing twine in a sock in your septic system where nobody can find it (and no one wants to look anyway lol)
> 
> Electronic or etf versions are subject to the same risks as crypto, really.



BTW, if I ever get doxxed, that's not where it is. 

You'll never find it


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

wayneL said:


> BTW, if I ever get doxxed, that's not where it is.
> 
> You'll never find it



Haha.




Gold has had a good build up for those accumulating, it will be found.

gg


----------



## divs4ever

wayneL said:


> BTW, if I ever get doxxed, that's not where it is.
> 
> You'll never find it



usually the problem is greedy relatives ( sometimes working with 3 rd parties )

 sorry to disappoint you but i won't be looking unless we descend into civil unrest  ,  and then i'll be after food , water , and weapons/ammo 

 cheers


----------



## wayneL

divs4ever said:


> usually the problem is greedy relatives ( sometimes working with 3 rd parties )
> 
> sorry to disappoint you but i won't be looking unless we descend into civil unrest  ,  and then i'll be after food , water , and weapons/ammo
> 
> cheers



I have some wizzened string beans in the garden and an expensive rounding hammer, but you must be able to withstand a greasy eyeball look from my front door first


----------



## Greynomad99

I'm afraid I'll never quite understand why a lump of metal is so highly valued, however, from a charting perspective the gold sector has started to show signs of life and the sector chart is a technical buy having broken a technical downtrend and making higher weekly troughs and peaks.



Not surprisingly, physical gold is also bullish but needs to break and hold above about $1,860 to get above a long term line of resistance.



And RRL has finally made a 2 week break (unless it collapses tomorrow) above a very long downtrend. Coming off a level of support that has held for 14 years and making higher weekly troughs and peaks it would seem very likely to be a good long term hold. Apart from the trend break which wasn't in play then, the other points are why I picked RRL in the 2022 tipping competition.


The only thorn in the side of gold is higher interest rates - which tend to devalue assets like gold that don't generate an income.
I hold EVN and have a conditional buy in for RRL tomorrow.


----------



## wayneL

Greynomad99 said:


> I'm afraid I'll never quite understand why a lump of metal is so highly valued,




Perhaps I could go some way in answering that question:

1/ Cost of production - cost of production varies of course depending on the resource, but the actual cost to produce 1 ounce of gold is somewhere between 1000 and 1200 USD. Add-on minting cost,  storage and all that sort of thing, plus profit margin, and you have it marketable value somewhere north of that

2/ Rarity - despite it being on every brides finger it is actually quite a rare metal. I read somewhere that all of the gold ever mined, ever, would fit in the base of the Eiffel tower. That may be apocryphal but I think the basic premise still stands.

3/ Inertness - gold does not corrode and is not chemically active. That means if someone lost a gold coin 500 years ago and somebody finds it today, you still basically have the same gold coin absolutely intact.

4/ it has traditionally been regarded as a store of value, for all of the above reasons and more. If central Banks go on a tear and cause hyperinflation, if the internet goes down, or if the whole electric grid goes down. There it is.

Gold is still there.

5/ Central Banks - I think we all have noticed that this waxes and wanes, but Central banks and governments do have a store of gold for all of the above reasons.

there are probably other reasons I'm not thinking of off the top of my head but...

FWIW


----------



## Dona Ferentes

wayneL said:


> 1/ Cost of production - cost of production varies of course depending on the resource, but the actual cost to produce 1 ounce of gold is somewhere between 1000 and 1200 USD.
> 
> 2/ Rarity - despite it being on every bride's finger it is actually quite a rare metal. I read somewhere that all of the gold ever mined, ever, would fit in the base of the Eiffel tower.
> 
> 3/ Inertness - gold does not corrode and is not chemically active. That means if someone lost a gold coin 500 years ago and somebody finds it today, you still basically have the same gold coin absolutely intact.
> 
> 4/ it has traditionally been regarded as a store of value, for all of the above reasons and more.
> 
> 5/ Central BanKs



Had to look it up.  Eiffel Tower is not my go-to measurement. Some do swimming pools. ...... From the Gold Council:

_The best estimates currently available suggest that around 197,576 tonnes of gold has been mined throughout history, of which around two-thirds has been mined since 1950. And since gold is virtually indestructible, this means that almost all of this metal is still around in one form or another. If every single ounce of this gold were placed next to each other, the *resulting cube of pure gold would only measure around 21 metres on each side.*_


----------



## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> Had to look it up.  Eiffel Tower is not my go-to measurement. Some do swimming pools. ...... From the Gold Council:
> 
> _The best estimates currently available suggest that around 197,576 tonnes of gold has been mined throughout history, of which around two-thirds has been mined since 1950. And since gold is virtually indestructible, this means that almost all of this metal is still around in one form or another. If every single ounce of this gold were placed next to each other, the *resulting cube of pure gold would only measure around 21 metres on each side.*_




That sounds pretty rare to me.


----------



## wayneL

Dona Ferentes said:


> Had to look it up.  Eiffel Tower is not my go-to measurement. Some do swimming pools. ...... From the Gold Council:
> 
> _The best estimates currently available suggest that around 197,576 tonnes of gold has been mined throughout history, of which around two-thirds has been mined since 1950. And since gold is virtually indestructible, this means that almost all of this metal is still around in one form or another. If every single ounce of this gold were placed next to each other, the *resulting cube of pure gold would only measure around 21 metres on each side.*_



For me, that's actually acutely more imaginable.

A dressage arena is 20 m wide and if anyone has ever tried to turn a 3 year old 17:2 warmblood inside that, knows it's not a lot of room.


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> That sounds pretty rare to me.



 the important question  is who ( how many ) desire some  of that  hoard 

 if the mound was  a nice sandstone .. would many desire that  ( i suspect not many  )


----------



## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> Perhaps I could go some way in answering that question:
> 
> 1/ Cost of production - cost of production varies of course depending on the resource, but the actual cost to produce 1 ounce of gold is somewhere between 1000 and 1200 USD. Add-on minting cost,  storage and all that sort of thing, plus profit margin, and you have it marketable value somewhere north of that
> 
> 2/ Rarity - despite it being on every brides finger it is actually quite a rare metal. I read somewhere that all of the gold ever mined, ever, would fit in the base of the Eiffel tower. That may be apocryphal but I think the basic premise still stands.
> 
> 3/ Inertness - gold does not corrode and is not chemically active. That means if someone lost a gold coin 500 years ago and somebody finds it today, you still basically have the same gold coin absolutely intact.
> 
> 4/ it has traditionally been regarded as a store of value, for all of the above reasons and more. If central Banks go on a tear and cause hyperinflation, if the internet goes down, or if the whole electric grid goes down. There it is.
> 
> Gold is still there.
> 
> 5/ Central Banks - I think we all have noticed that this waxes and wanes, but Central banks and governments do have a store of gold for all of the above reasons.
> 
> there are probably other reasons I'm not thinking of off the top of my head but...
> 
> FWIW



Shiny and gold colour: this is a bloody beautiful lump of metal 😊


----------



## wayneL

qldfrog said:


> Shiny and gold colour: this is a bloody beautiful lump of metal 😊



Yep ... And there's that too


----------



## DaveTrade

__





						The most compelling chart for GLD right now (Market Video Update) – The Steady Trader
					






					thesteadytrader.com


----------



## Sean K

Sorry for the almost day-to-day commentary on POG, but my thesis is that with everything going on in the World this is going to break up at some point, and I want a seat at the table. If it breaks down, then I'll stand up.

As we _should_ expect, 1830 has been tested and there's been a little bounce. This is very positive. But who knows what's going to happen over the weekend.

1830 being broken means it's back to the drawing board.


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Sorry for the almost day-to-day commentary on POG, but my thesis is that with everything going on in the World this is going to break up at some point, and I want a seat at the table. If it breaks down, then I'll stand up.
> 
> As we _should_ expect, 1830 has been tested and there's been a little bounce. This is very positive. But who knows what's going to happen over the weekend.
> 
> 1830 being broken means it's back to the drawing board.
> 
> View attachment 136308



just means the gold price is a little more interesting than usual


----------



## Greynomad99

I think next week could be very interesting but it reminds me of the old Chinese curse - 'may you live in interesting times'.

PS: with apologies to our Chinese community there is no evidence this quote ever originated in China.


----------



## Sean K

Greynomad99 said:


> I think next week could be very interesting but it reminds me of the old Chinese curse - 'may you live in interesting times'.
> 
> PS: with apologies to our Chinese community there is no evidence this quote ever originated in China.




I think that was in a Chinese cookie, created in Bendigo in 1875. 

The triangle should pop one way or the other.


----------



## divs4ever

Greynomad99 said:


> I think next week could be very interesting but it reminds me of the old Chinese curse - 'may you live in interesting times'.
> 
> PS: with apologies to our Chinese community there is no evidence this quote ever originated in China.



 LOL 

 i have been in 'interesting times ' all my life , but at least i grabbed some opportunities during the excitement  (  a very useful trait in the stock market )


----------



## noirua




----------



## Sean K

noirua said:


>





I wish I had have started following and listening to RR when I first started investing 30 years ago. I suppose that wasn't an option pre-you tube. Every mug punter with an interest in PMs should subscribe to his site.


----------



## DannyB0000

Sean K said:


> I wish I had have started following and listening to RR when I first started investing 30 years ago. I suppose that wasn't an option pre-you tube. Every mug punter with an interest in PMs should subscribe to his site.



Gold $5 dream on.  This video doesn’t really help me as a gold investor.  It’s pure speculation which direction prices are going.  I’m over listening to people like this, am playing the long term game with my goldies.  Sleeping soundly.


----------



## Sean K

DannyB0000 said:


> Gold $5 dream on.  This video doesn’t really help me as a gold investor.  It’s pure speculation which direction prices are going.  I’m over listening to people like this, am playing the long term game with my goldies.  Sleeping soundly.




That's great Danny, good luck. My sixth person on ignore. I love this function!


----------



## rederob

Honing in on the pennant formation from @DaveTrade's above chart we see with a 4-hourly POG chart that breakout is near:



However, momentum is not especially strong atm, despite several recent upside moves being rapid.
Maybe the big money players are waiting for fed rate hikes before POG issues a strong buy signal.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The most compelling chart for GLD right now (Market Video Update) – The Steady Trader
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thesteadytrader.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 136236




Have we breached the upper levels yet Dave, or just knocking on the door?


----------



## DaveTrade

Sean K said:


> Have we breached the upper levels yet Dave, or just knocking on the door?



Sean here is an update of my big picture weekly chart followed by a daily chart showing the 175 level he mentions in the video. It's just above a resistance zone.


----------



## Sean K

Bill Powers is one of the best you tube interviewers on general mining stocks. He's a bit of a silver bug, but does good gold as well.


----------



## Sean K

Yikes! These charts don't work at all!!


----------



## wayneL

Sean K said:


> Yikes! These charts don't work at all!!
> 
> View attachment 136604



Blame the Fed (and other villains). There is no longer true price discovery in stock/precious metals markets.


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> Blame the Fed (and other villains). There is no longer true price discovery in stock/precious metals markets.




I think JP Morgan was reading ASF and saw @DaveTrade s chart with that top resistance line at $1850 eq and said sell!


----------



## DaveTrade

I'm not concerned at this point about the drop on the Gold chart last night, shown below;



After looking through all my charts there seems to be a common theme of a holding pattern across the charts, and I think that's what is happening in Gold as well. If I put up a three day chart to reduce the noise in the daily chart, the latest move up (circled) consists of alternate up and down bars as the market slowly moves from the bottom of the triangle to the top. So at this point nothing has changed, I'm still waiting for Gold to break out of the triangle;


----------



## divs4ever

i was , just missed my NST  target price ( so far )

 but i live in hope 

 DYOR


----------



## CityIndex

The move isn’t very surprising given with the USD and bond yields surging after the hawkish comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during his press conference.

Interestingly, the rejection for gold near 1850 was right along the downtrend resistance coming from mid-2020, so it was going to take something unexpected from the US central bank to allow for that breakout.

All trading carries risk, but now that the much-anticipated interest rate decision has been released, it’ll be interesting to see if gold prices extend this pullback or if they can maintain the uptrend support stemming from the December low.


----------



## divs4ever

got those NST ( 5 cents cheaper than planned , to boot ) ,  now the extra EVN look possible too , in the near future 

 just have to resist 'backing up the truck  'when buying


----------



## peter2

All the stock charts show it's been a brutal year for the goldies.  How have you survived after being crushed into smaller pieces, sieved and washed away with the waste? 

*TIE* and *RED* look to be the only charts with some promise. May I suggest something for you're depression, lithium?


----------



## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> got those NST ( 5 cents cheaper than planned , to boot ) ,  now the extra EVN look possible too , in the near future
> 
> just have to resist 'backing up the truck  'when buying




I've bought both NST and EVN over the past few months, but there's no backing up the truck. I've been waiting for a positive breakout on gold to deploy $$, which should occur at some stage, but timing is the problem, unless you are 100% invested in the gold thesis. I think a few of us saw a bottom in late Sept last year, but the price has failed at key resistance levels repeatedly since. So, until the upper levels are breached properly, the gold bull hypothesis is just an hypothesis.


----------



## qldfrog

peter2 said:


> All the stock charts show it's been a brutal year for the goldies.  How have you survived after being crushed into smaller pieces, sieved and washed away with the waste?
> 
> *TIE* and *RED* look to be the only charts with some promise. May I suggest something for you're depression, lithium?



Has been hurtful indeed


----------



## rederob

peter2 said:


> All the stock charts show it's been a brutal year for the goldies.  How have you survived after being crushed into smaller pieces, sieved and washed away with the waste?
> 
> *TIE* and *RED* look to be the only charts with some promise. May I suggest something for you're depression, lithium?



Isn't the saying that "timing is everything?"
Lithium has already had a decent run so how much more is ahead?
Timing POG has always been fraught as it's demand is principally speculative.
Last week we went from an upside breakout likely to a case where downside was more likely:



The 6-month trend is up, but if you add more or fewer months to the regression then that trend moves all over the place, so it's effectively meaningless.
Nevertheless, the chart pattern must break one way and the only issue will be if it becomes an outlier rather than the longer trend.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold is bearish atm.

Just accept it and go with it is my advice. 

Whether to accumulate and wait depends on your risk tolerance and size of pot. 

Whether to sell and invest elsewhere depends on finding a better elsewhere. 




gg


----------



## CityIndex

Gold’s attempted rebound from last week’s sell-off is already struggling as it’s seemingly being fuelled by a decline in the US Dollar rather than strong demand for the precious metal.

In fact, when compared to other FX majors in an equally weighted basket, it is quite apparent that gold is becoming weaker and is actually at risk of further downside if. In order for gold to form a sustained leg higher, it will likely need to be supported from a decline in real yields and continued weakness for the USD, pushing investors back into the market.

All trading carries risk, and with so many important determinants, the situation needs to be closely monitored before making any decisions.


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Breakdown of USD is the main reason to hold gold atm imo.


----------



## qldfrog

Tyre Kicker said:


> Breakdown of USD is the main reason to hold gold atm imo.



Agree but so far, i am bleeding heavily


----------



## CityIndex

Tyre Kicker said:


> Breakdown of USD is the main reason to hold gold atm imo.



Gold could be supported further by as the USD continues to fall after last night’s ADP data, which will likely add to expectations of a weak NFP report tomorrow. This would go against the Fed’s hawkish stance, potentially sending real yields lower, allowing gold to rally.

However, if the ECB remains dovish today despite the hot EU inflation print, we might see some USD bulls step back into the market.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to watch how the situation unfolds over the rest of the week.


----------



## Sean K

This is getting more and more pointy. Or, is it pointier and pointier?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The former @Sean K 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The former @Sean K
> 
> gg




I guess if it breaks down from this pointy set up, 1700 looks to be a lot of support, but it will decimate gold stocks during that time.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> I guess if it breaks down from this pointy set up, 1700 looks to be a lot of support, but it will decimate gold stocks during that time.



could break up too


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

@Sean K 

Quite the opposite and this is my reason.

That upper trend line is not valid for chart purists. 

It should start from the higher high a month prior and I have enclosed a PMGOLD chart which shows that in $AUD. Unfortunately I don't have access to drawing on charting of gold in $USD. They are very similar though and the triangle is now complete.

PMGOLD is consolidating and the RSI is rising. 

So the crossover has occurred and I am again bullish on gold. 

It just takes that darn crypto to get out of the way which will happen as the Mutual Funds crash taking crypto with them and everyone returns to cash/proper value stocks/gold and "normal" and packs the cocaine away in Silicon Valley and Cryptoland for the next Tulip.










gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> @Sean K
> 
> Quite the opposite and this is my reason.
> 
> That upper trend line is not valid for chart purists.




I may agree, but I discounted the top in Aug 20 as it looks like a blow off top type of thing that was part of an irrational overshoot.

I prefer your chart. 

And, I'm hoping @qldfrog is correct. I'm banking on it. But, I'm prepared for the worse.

Shouldn't you be down on Palmer St somewhere?


----------



## rederob

POG 4-hourly chart below shows a $40 increase over the past week, with pennant formation yet to break either way:


It's fair to say we have been in a wishy washy sideways trend for the past year, with nothing suggesting POG is either weak or strong.
The trend regression since last December is, nevertheless, nicely positive, so another $25 upside would provide further impetus for POG to resume its longer term bull run.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I now watch carefully the BTC GOLD chart, as this will be a marker for a significant move up or down in gold, more likely the former. 

The USD chart is meaningless to me, the AUD less so. 

BTC has had one of it's bigger up weeks recently and it now costs 24oz gold to buy 1 bitcoin. 

Say 25oz for argument sake. 

Would you swap 5 X 5oz Gold Bars of Gold for 1 Bitcoin?

That is the question. 





gg


----------



## Jeda




----------



## Sean K

Good general discussion of the market and PMs here, POG chart from 7.10.


----------



## CityIndex

Gold prices could actually be in for a week of added volatility with the US CPI figures out on Thursday.

The precious metal extended its break back above the 200-day MA on Monday, supported by a weaker US Dollar, and inflows into gold ETFs as a hedge against inflation and volatility in equities. But with the forecast for inflation to hit a 40-year high, it should be interesting to see whether gold prices continue to rally, or if this is just speculation in the build-up.

The US Dollar should already regain some ground after today’s bond market sell-off caused US 10-year yields to surge to their highest level in over 2 years. If the inflation print is strong, it will also likely add to speculation of a 50bps hike from the Fed as opposed to the original 25bps plan, which could see even more USD bulls re-enter the market.

The downward trending resistance coming from mid-2020, and the uptrend support from August 2021 are narrowing and will converge soon, so gold prices are likely on the cusp of a breakout in either direction. All trading carries risk, but will this week provide an early indication into which way the move will be?


----------



## DaveTrade

The appeal of gold as an inflation hedge​


Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary: Gold’s ability to defy gravity amid rising US real yields continues and so far, any weakness below $1800 has quickly attracted fresh buying. As the headline suggests we see part of the renewed demand for gold being driven by investors seeking a hedge against inflation and not least against the current optimistic view that central banks will be successful in bringing down inflation. Adding to this the recent turmoil in bonds and stocks as well as a general strong investment demand for commodities.

Gold’s ability to defy gravity amid rising US real yields continues and so far, any weakness below $1800 has quickly attracted fresh buying. The most recent and biggest challenge was in the aftermath of last month’s FOMC meeting where a surprisingly hawkish change in tone sent the yellow metal sharply lower before a steady recovery has taken the price back to unchanged for the year. Gold’s small dip last year after averaging 21.7% the previous two years was driven by long liquidation from asset managers amid strong equity markets and low volatility as well as the belief rising inflation would turn out to be transitory, and not pose a longer-term threat to growth and price stability. 




Towards the end of last year, a major change occurred at the US Federal Reserve after President Biden’s team likely made it clear the if Team Powell wanted to lead the Fed, it needed to focus on the +150 million Americans at work seeing their pay reduced every month in real terms by the Fed’s inaction on inflation, rather than focusing on maximizing accommodation to support the remaining few million unemployed in finding work. Both Powell and Brainard (the incoming Vice-Chair) complied and forcefully so and the hawkish shift in language helped send US ten-year real yields sharply higher while the market priced in a rapid succession of rate hikes, with more than five now priced in for 2022.

Since then gold, the most interest rate and dollar sensitive commodity has managed to withstand a 0.6% rise in US real yields. Apart from a small bid from current geopolitical concerns we see several other drivers emerging, some of which are highlighted below.
Gold has during the past few months been exhibiting rising immunity towards rising real yields with investors instead focusing on hedging their portfolios against the risk of slowing growth and with that falling stock market valuations as well as increased turbulence in the bond market. Even more aggressive rate hikes may end up being positive for gold as it will further raise the risk of a policy mistake from the Federal Reserve as it increases recessionary risks.




Gold’s credentials as an inflation hedge as well as a defensive asset have received renewed attention with rising stock and bond market volatility amid a market adjusting to a rising interest rate environment. At the same time, we believe inflation will remain elevated with rising input costs, wages and rentals being a few components that may not be lowered by rising interest rates. *With this in mind gold is also increasingly being viewed as a hedge against the markets current optimistic view that central banks will be successful in bringing down inflation.*




The commodity sector has shown renewed strength during the past year with strong fundamentals underpinning many individual commodities where several will be facing a prolonged period of a mismatch between rising demand and inelastic supply. With some of the worlds most tracked commodity indexes holding between 5 and 15% of their exposure in gold, any demand for a broad exposure to the commodity sector will automatically generate additional demand for gold.




While asset managers as seen in the ETF chart below are showing signs of renewed appetite, the price action has yet to trigger any increased interest from leveraged money managers who often focus more on momentum than fundamentals. In the week to February 1 they held a net long in COMEX gold futures of just 62,500 lots or 6.5 million ounces, some 78% below the record peak from 2019. Money managers focusing on momentum tend buy into strength and sell into weakness, and in order to attract increased demand from leveraged trading accounts, gold as a minimum needs to break above the 50% retracement of the 2020 to 2021 correction at $1876 which is also the 2021 high. In the other direction, failure to hold above $1750 may signal a deeper correction.


----------



## Sean K

Gold price is teasing us bulls again, poking through the top of the flag around $1850. Just waiting for JP Morgan to start selling again.








AUD Gold:







A couple of excuses over at Kitco:
Gold price looks to take $1,850 as markets fear emergency Fed move​Gold price jumps on fear that Russia could soon invade Ukraine​But, maybe some shorts are being unwound.


----------



## rederob

Resumption of bull trend confirmed overnight:




Strong movement suggests follow through will continue.


----------



## gartley

rederob said:


> Resumption of bull trend confirmed overnight:
> 
> View attachment 137400
> 
> 
> Strong movement suggests follow through will continue.



Yep, started accumulating  gold miners last week as this bullish wedge been slowly building.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> View attachment 137358




This looks positive @DaveTrade Finishing over 1870 next week will be important. If not, vulnerable to another drop off.


----------



## Logique2

TA, inflation, geopolitics, it all looks supportive of gold sentiment.
Thanks all for the charts.

JFK was considered  a hero for hunting the Soviets out of Cuba, why shouldn't Putin get antsy about NATO potentially expanding into Ukraine?
Let's hope it's just sabre-rattling from him.


----------



## finicky

Logique2 said:


> JFK was considered a hero for hunting the Soviets out of Cuba, why shouldn't Putin get antsy about NATO potentially expanding into Ukraine?



The soviets were shipping ballistic missiles into Cuba - an 'existential' threat when the west was terrified of nuclear warfare. Ukraine seeks NATO affiliation for protection against Russian domination. The Ukraine has not made any provision for an offensive base that would threaten Russia's security. It's plain who is the aggressor - to the point of bringing up the nuclear threat which Putin has done before. A lot of Ukraine and Russian boys stand to get killed because of Putin's empire ambition. Putin is striking while the U.S is weak under a Biden administration.


----------



## divs4ever

what about all the bunkers and arms storage depots  left as a legacy on the Soviet occupation ( the ones the civilians are hoping to hide in should Russia invade )  after all there are already legacy artillery and missile batteries  there  one would wonder  about abandoned nuclear and other WMD arsenals 

 don't leave out the girls they are liable to be conscripted as well  to just fight the pesky rebels , BTW  what happened to the ISIS mercenaries sheltering in the West  end ??

 and don't forget is was JOE BIDEN that was the de-facto Ukraine President between 2014 and 2016


----------



## DaveTrade

If the invasion starts then the big unknown will be what it will take to stop it. The markets don't like the unknown, the combination of war, interest rates and supply chain issues, not mention over extended markets, could likely make this much more than a decent correction for the $SPX.


----------



## qldfrog

Logique2 said:


> TA, inflation, geopolitics, it all looks supportive of gold sentiment.
> Thanks all for the charts.
> 
> JFK was considered  a hero for hunting the Soviets out of Cuba, why shouldn't Putin get antsy about NATO potentially expanding into Ukraine?
> Let's hope it's just sabre-rattling from him.



Sabte rattling so far is more Biden side, but what can you expect when POTUS is blackmailed by Ukraine after his son's" gifts" episodes.
Which makes a hot conflict even more likely IMHO


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> If the invasion starts then the big unknown will be what it will take to stop it. The markets don't like the unknown, the combination of war, interest rates and supply chain issues, not mention over extended markets, could likely make this much more than a decent correction for the $SPX.




I think Putin is only after the south eastern side of Ukraine. The stuff going on to the NE and Belarus is a distraction to spread Ukraine's defences thin and to spread NATO. I'm not sure if anything will actually happen, Russia has more to lose I think. 

If they do attack, I think there will be a feint to the north and then they'll attack from the east and south. What's hardly been reported is that Russia has amassed a huge number of ships in the Black Sea and Sea of Avov including amphibious forces and NATO has pretty much vacated to the Med. There are currently 3 x aircfraft carrriers in the Med as some sort of deterrence. Once Russia cross the LD they'll get to a predetermined line, likely the red line on the map below, and then they'll stop and negotiate a ceasefire and Russia will then own the Eastern side of Ukraine with control of the northern parts of the Black Sea right across to Moldova making Ukraine land locked. Ukraine (and the UN and NATO) won't want to give up Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson, so they might negotiate to hold that section of coast line up to the Dnipro River indicated by the blue line forming a natural border. NATO should not let this happen because, what do they take next? Just my random thoughts.


----------



## Sean K

Sean K said:


> I think Putin is only after the south eastern side of Ukraine. The stuff going on to the NE and Belarus is a distraction to spread Ukraine's defences thin and to spread NATO. I'm not sure if anything will actually happen, Russia has more to lose I think.
> 
> If they do attack, I think there will be a feint to the north and then they'll attack from the east and south. What's hardly been reported is that Russia has amassed a huge number of ships in the Black Sea and Sea of Avov including amphibious forces and NATO has pretty much vacated to the Med. There are currently 3 x aircfraft carrriers in the Med as some sort of deterrence. Once Russia cross the LD they'll get to a predetermined line, likely the red line on the map below, and then they'll stop and negotiate a ceasefire and Russia will then own the Eastern side of Ukraine with control of the northern parts of the Black Sea right across to Moldova making Ukraine land locked. Ukraine (and the UN and NATO) won't want to give up Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson, so they might negotiate to hold that section of coast line up to the Dnipro River indicated by the blue line forming a natural border. NATO should not let this happen because, what do they take next? Just my random thoughts.
> 
> View attachment 137459




This is another potential future border I just found in a google, based largely on Russia speakers.


----------



## DaveTrade

Sean K said:


> If they do attack



Thanks for your insight.


----------



## divs4ever

DaveTrade said:


> If the invasion starts then the big unknown will be what it will take to stop it. The markets don't like the unknown, the combination of war, interest rates and supply chain issues, not mention over extended markets, could likely make this much more than a decent correction for the $SPX.



 probably the repayment of the loan  they gave to the government in 2013 ( which is currently being litigated in the UK courts )

 apart from some loyal Russians ( ethnics ) and a bit of cropping land ( and a Soviet era tank factory )  i don't see a lot of value in the Ukraine .. i bet they haven't paid back that $US 1 billion  loan Joe Biden black-mailed them with either  ( you know the 'son-of-a-bitch , he got fired ' loan )


----------



## divs4ever

yes that Black Sea port ( and the Russian bases ) in Crimea  are very important  but depending on your perception  they have already rejoined Russia  , or been annexed  by the large number of troops stationed there  

 HOWEVER if Russia really wanted some decent ports ( and was willing to fight for them  ) , Japan would be perfect for them .. flailing economy , plenty of tech savvy    etc etc etc  ( both North Korea and China  liable to give tactical support )


----------



## againsthegrain

Ukraine claim they could get upto 2m conscripts, anybody of legal age and females. They also claim they could repel a Russian invasion.

Who knows,  with the weapons and training from the west and heaps of cannon fodder it would be very embarrassing for Putin if they did.


----------



## Sean K

againsthegrain said:


> Ukraine claim they could get upto 2m conscripts, anybody of legal age and females. They also claim they could repel a Russian invasion.
> 
> Who knows,  with the weapons and training from the west and heaps of cannon fodder it would be very embarrassing for Putin if they did.




It’s the anti armor weapons the West have been providing which will provide the greatest threat to Russia. Similar to the effect of Stingers given to the Muj in the 80s. Russia will get a very bloody nose. They won’t go as far as Kiev, but if they did, the insurgency from ethnic Ukraines will be fierce. Russians in the red zone of this map will be resisted by every man woman and child.

What does all this have to do with gold? Well, it’s all over the news isn‘t it. Geopolitical tension combined with inflation and rising interest rates = gold. The AUD gold price has gone nuts.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> It’s the anti armor weapons the West have been providing which will provide the greatest threat to Russia. Similar to the effect of Stingers given to the Muj in the 80s. Russia will get a very bloody nose. They won’t go as far as Kiev, but if they did, the insurgency from ethnic Ukraines will be fierce. Russians in the red zone of this map will be resisted by every man woman and child.
> 
> What does all this have to do with gold? Well, it’s all over the news isn‘t it. Geopolitical tension combined with inflation and rising interest rates = gold. The AUD gold price has gone nuts.
> 
> View attachment 137476



Russian is not interested in having troops in kiev, just trying to save its access to sea and population..roughly the yellow bits in the map.But biden wants need a war so this is good news for gold  and the corrupt Ukrainian mafia in power, less for the Ukrainian people
Some will soon call me Vladimir here LOL


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just over 1.5 hours before Sydney starts the ball rolling this week on Spot trading. 

Interesting times. 

I'll be doing a little selling on any large rises, too many people are discussing politics. 

I even had a Kashmiri Uber driver at 12.30 am this morning explaining Donetsk to me while I was doing today's Wordle in the back seat (  I got it in three ).

I've been to Jammu Kashmir but didn't tell him. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just over 1.5 hours before Sydney starts the ball rolling this week on Spot trading.
> 
> Interesting times.
> 
> I'll be doing a little selling on any large rises, too many people are discussing politics.
> 
> I even had a Kashmiri Uber driver at 12.30 am this morning explaining Donetsk to me while I was doing today's Wordle in the back seat (  I got it in three ).
> 
> I've been to Jammu Kashmir but didn't tell him.
> 
> gg



Did the Uber driver tell you to buy gold too?

I've just started Wordle over the weekend. Just worked out the colour scheme.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Did the Uber driver tell you to buy gold too?
> 
> I've just started Wordle over the weekend. Just worked out the colour scheme.



i think taxi driving are still telling everyone to buy cryptos?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

divs4ever said:


> what about all the bunkers and arms storage depots  left as a legacy on the Soviet occupation ( the ones the civilians are hoping to hide in should Russia invade )  after all there are already legacy artillery and missile batteries  there  one would wonder  about abandoned nuclear and other WMD arsenals
> 
> don't leave out the girls they are liable to be conscripted as well  to just fight the pesky rebels , BTW  what happened to the ISIS mercenaries sheltering in the West  end ??
> 
> and don't forget is was JOE BIDEN that was the de-facto Ukraine President between 2014 and 2016



the usual uninformed guesswork, mate

from the BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-26676051



> In 1994 the US, UK, Russia and Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum, in which the three powers offered assurances that they would respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Pavlo Rizanenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, is having second thoughts.





> "We gave up nuclear weapons because of this agreement," he told USA Today's Larry Copeland. "Now there's a strong sentiment in Ukraine that we made a big mistake."


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> i think taxi driving are still telling everyone to buy cryptos?




Finally stopped spruiking cbd apartments? 😂


----------



## Sean K

I'm more confident that we did hit a bottom last Sep, but still hesitant about calling a break up, since the last call failed so dramatically when gold crashed from 1870 to 1780 in the space of a few days in late Nov. But, breaking through 1850 again has me thinking. 

Anyone calling a break through the upper edges of the flag which is about the 1850 level? 

I think GG already has.


----------



## qldfrog

I think we are on now Sean, the nyse will fall in the next month and gold will rise.lets see..


----------



## rederob

Sean K said:


> Anyone calling a break through the upper edges of the flag which is about the 1850 level?



That was called and posted on Saturday - with breakout actually at $1845 - so maybe unblock posters who have more of a clue than do you.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold has definitely broken upwards, particularly in $AUD. 

I find it easier when I trade at home in stocks or commodities to look at their chart in $AUD.

When on NYSE/NASDAQ in $USD

Trying to work out AUD:USD does my head in to be honest. Particularly with the quality of leadership in both countries over the last 5 years or so when if one of them does an audible fart nobody knows if they are going to cark it or it is the "Second Coming" for them and their followers and opponents.  Markets get skittish for no reason at all. 

So I'll show you 2 charts, both Gold over a year, one in AUD and the other in USD. In AUD it is basically an uptrend with a recent breakup higher. With USD it is all over the joint, again breaking higher recently. 

The canary in the coal mine is Crypto. Many people with severe psychiatric illness, mania, psychosis etc. used trade Gold when they were high. These unfortunates were often quite rich, some with large funds and "followers". A bit like Palestine in 33 AD, the followers that is. 

These unfortunates now trade Crypto and there is a distinct lack of "madmen" trading Gold, lowering relative liquidity and market movement.

Each night I kneel by my bed and I pray to Baby J that Crypto will crash, and each morning I wake up and it hasn't.     








gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold has definitely broken upwards, particularly in $AUD.
> 
> I find it easier when I trade at home in stocks or commodities to look at their chart in $AUD.
> 
> When on NYSE/NASDAQ in $USD
> 
> Trying to work out AUD:USD does my head in to be honest. Particularly with the quality of leadership in both countries over the last 5 years or so when if one of them does an audible fart nobody knows if they are going to cark it or it is the "Second Coming" for them and their followers and opponents.  Markets get skittish for no reason at all.
> 
> So I'll show you 2 charts, both Gold over a year, one in AUD and the other in USD. In AUD it is basically an uptrend with a recent breakup higher. With USD it is all over the joint, again breaking higher recently.
> 
> The canary in the coal mine is Crypto. Many people with severe psychiatric illness, mania, psychosis etc. used trade Gold when they were high. These unfortunates were often quite rich, some with large funds and "followers". A bit like Palestine in 33 AD, the followers that is.
> 
> These unfortunates now trade Crypto and there is a distinct lack of "madmen" trading Gold, lowering relative liquidity and market movement.
> 
> Each night I kneel by my bed and I pray to Baby J that Crypto will crash, and each morning I wake up and it hasn't.
> 
> View attachment 137585
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 137586
> 
> 
> gg




I've been following the AUD POG too but our stocks don't seem to follow that price action as much as USD POG. That's just my perception anyway. Perhaps there's a multi-correlation chart out there that does XGD with AUD and USD POG overlayed on it. Not within my scope unfortunately. I need a better charting program.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I've been following the AUD POG too but our stocks don't seem to follow that price action as much as USD POG. That's just my perception anyway. Perhaps there's a multi-correlation chart out there that does XGD with AUD and USD POG overlayed on it. Not within my scope unfortunately. I need a better charting program.



Good point.

Many of our gold stocks are selling AU at fixed negotiated prices and are subject to the vagaries of the spot, futures and other markets. As I said, and as you have stressed which I didn't, its is difficult to make a quid out of Aussie Gold stocks using any available market data or charting. 

I've made more dosh over the last 12 mo.out of PMGOLD than I have out of most of my gold stocks. 

gg


----------



## stanwell




----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've made more dosh over the last 12 mo.out of PMGOLD than I have out of most of my gold stocks.
> 
> gg




I think PMGOLD might break up out of that channel shortly. I hope so anyway.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold has fallen back overnight in $AUD. 

Not in Black Knight territory though.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold has fallen back overnight in $AUD.
> 
> Not in Black Knight territory though.
> 
> gg
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 137608




Russia may have pulled back some troops from the border. That's the excuse for the fall anyway, but I watched gold drop last night well before those reports came out.

Russia's build up may have been a 'demonstration' and test of NATO response to see what they can get away with which will inform their next steps. They now know NATO's not going to defend Ukraine directly and know how they will position their EFP battle groups. 

Next geopolitical crisis will be after the winter olympics when China ratchet up their buzzing of Taiwan.

If either Russia or China do take direct action it will probably be synchronised so the US have two wars to fight, which will stretch them.

Anyway, if Russia does completely withdraw, that's one reason for gold money to remain in crazycoins for the moment.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold has definitely broken upwards, particularly in $AUD.




and then a day later


Sean K said:


> Russia may have pulled back some troops from the border. That's the excuse for the fall anyway, but I watched gold drop last night well before those reports came out.




_My conclusion_, Gold is behaving as it should. 

(I only track PMGOLD ; as good a 9-5 methodology is any.  .... and truncated to 10-4 !)


----------



## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> and then a day later
> 
> 
> _My conclusion_, Gold is behaving as it should.
> 
> (I only track PMGOLD ; as good a 9-5 methodology is any.  .... and truncated to 10-4 !)




GG's break up point is different to mine. We're using a different upper resistance line. USD 1850 ish is my resistance point for continued sideways movement. 

Don't discount JP Morgan spoofing.


----------



## DaveTrade

Looking at my momentum indicators on my GLD chart, momentum on Gold is still up;


----------



## rederob

The longer term price perspective via a Renko chart also looks positive:


----------



## rederob

POG's continuation has been promising this week, so here's a picture of where it has gone - on an HOURLY basis - since breaking out of its pennant formation:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> POG's continuation has been promising this week, so here's a picture of where it has gone - on an HOURLY basis - since breaking out of its pennant formation:
> View attachment 137683



Yes.

The cousins in London do seem to sell it down during their session this week. 

Todays and previous 2 days. .






gg


----------



## DaveTrade

Here is another look at the GLD chart showing strength in the Gold market from another point of view. The Balance of Power indicator, introduced by Igor Livshin, measures the market strength of buyers against sellers by assessing the ability of each side to drive prices to an extreme level.


----------



## bluekelah

chart breakout tonight, should be crossing 1900USD pretty soon.. 

Is russia about to invade?


----------



## Sean K

JP Morgan have finally let POG poke through 1850 ish and test that level to move higher above. Shorts may have been unbuttoned.

There should be a number of TAs out there posting up breakout articles today with potential targets on the giant C&H. The left hand edge of the cup needs to be broken first though. Plenty will be getting set for it though, if not already.


----------



## Telamelo

Will our AUD Gold price reach $3,000 per oz !?  Hope so...


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> Will our AUD Gold price reach $3,000 per oz !?  Hope so...




If this breakout is confirmed and gold heads that way in AUD, our unhedged gold miners are going to have a very good time of it.


----------



## stanwell

Gold 4H chart. 

The swings have been following the short and long term forks very well. Expect it to come back test the big fork before taking off again.


----------



## Sean K

stanwell said:


> Gold 4H chart.
> 
> The swings have been following the short and long term forks very well. Expect it to come back test the big fork before taking off again.
> 
> View attachment 137740




This run up the past 3 weeks has been a little too good for my liking. Settling above 1850 will do for me at the moment.


----------



## Telamelo

Now’s the time to own commodities, says Goldman Sachs​
https://*********.com.au/now-time-own-commodities-super-cycle-goldman-sachs/

***small caps


----------



## Telamelo

Monthly Gold chart apparently shows a huge cup & handle formation taken place... read that forecast gold price target is US$2,800 (from this cup & handle formation)

Can anyone here put up a monthly Gold chart please - share their analysis/thoughts about it ?


----------



## Sean K

Sean K said:


> I like talk of a Cup and Handle here. But, not sure where and when the handle ends. Going to be interesting.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 130821





We've posted a few of these over the past several months @Telamelo .


----------



## Ann

Sean K said:


> I like talk of a Cup and Handle here. But, not sure where and when the handle ends. Going to be interesting.



This is a hard one to chart as a C&H calc Sean.



Telamelo said:


> Will our AUD Gold price reach $3,000 per oz !? Hope so...




I don't think so Telamelo, not quite.



Telamelo said:


> Can anyone here put up a monthly Gold chart please - share their analysis/thoughts about it ?



For what it is worth, it is quite a hard one to chart and I have given a few potential price outcomes and how they were calculated to think about on a monthly chart.


----------



## ducati916

Telamelo said:


> Monthly Gold chart apparently shows a huge cup & handle formation taken place... read that forecast gold price target is US$2,800 (from this cup & handle formation)
> 
> Can anyone here put up a monthly Gold chart please - share their analysis/thoughts about it ?







More about the fundamental narrative than any technical pattern, although the technical pattern supports the fundamental narrative which is: The Fed cannot raise the FFR above the inflation rate, which would need to be at 8%.

In fact, it is highly likely that the S&P500 will blow up at an FFR of 2%. When I say blow up, a decline of about 30%. Currently down 8%.

Should the S&P500 decline to +/- that level, it is again highly likely that the Fed will reinstitute QE. The issue then becomes whether DXY survives.

If the Fed does not underpin the market with further QE, then the market continues lower to about (-80%) in a deflationary bust, circa the 1929 - 1933 era.

Postulated is a debt Jubilee.

If that were the case, then any new currency would likely need to be backed with a hard asset (take your pick). Given that most CB's hold some or lots of gold, gold is likely beneficiary for a revaluation.

Therefore, very bullish.

jog on
duc


----------



## Sean K

Ann said:


> This is a hard one to chart as a C&H calc Sean.




I've seen numerous TA practitioners come up with the same target from the C&H, Ann. Same target as yours between 2500-2700. There's been so many I hope it just becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. So, let's spread the word - USD$2700 gold.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I've seen numerous TA practitioners come up with the same target from the C&H, Ann. Same target as yours between 2500-2700. There's been so many I hope it just becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. So, let's spread the word - USD$2700 gold.



And with the $AUD possibly at $USD0.64 due to commodity surge makes gold $AUD4200 or* if at todays rate $AUD3760* from it's present AUD$2650/USD$1900



gg


----------



## Ann

@Sean K, let's look at this a bit closer. On the daily chart, I can see a couple of weak resistance lines which may cause a moment of pause for the POG. I am now using volume spikes as a level from the EOD price of the VS. I am looking to see if they will offer support or resistance. I have been working on this solidly for a couple of weeks now and I feel pretty confident they are a genuine level of support or resistance. I have drawn a line from the price level of $1,848 coming from January 2021. Let's see if this offers some support should the POG fall back.


----------



## Sean K

Ann said:


> @Sean K, let's look at this a bit closer. On the daily chart, I can see a couple of weak resistance lines which may cause a moment of pause for the POG. I am now using volume spikes as a level from the EOD price of the VS. I am looking to see if they will offer support or resistance. I have been working on this solidly for a couple of weeks now and I feel pretty confident they are a genuine level of support or resistance. I have drawn a line from the price level of $1,848 coming from January 2021. Let's see if this offers some support should the POG fall back.
> 
> View attachment 137839




It looks like you're using @Garpal Gumnut 's diagonal upper resistance line with the break up in Nov 21. I've done my line starting from Nov 20 and disregarded the blow of top in Aug 20, so my break point was 1850. Agree, 1900 a very important line here. If we can break that on a weekly chart would be very bullish. Still overall looks like 30 Sep bottom was the start of the way back up.









						What's next for gold price? Geopolitics shock markets, growth outlook at risk
					





					www.kitco.com


----------



## rederob

My take on the next hurdle, charted weekly:


Ideally if POG can hit $1930 and quickly move through $1940 then we are off to another record high later this year.
The maroon/dark blue shaded area is the regression trend from the bull run commencing late 2016;  August 2020's record high was a clear outlier.


----------



## Telamelo

Analysis & discussion of Gold, Bitcoin, Oil & Gas


----------



## ducati916

It's actually easier to see what is happening in the gold market via the silver market because the gold market is dominated by the physical aspect of the market rather than the paper market. Central Banks put a level on the physical market that it will not fall below before they come in buying by the tonne. China, Russia, etc.

Here is the gold paper market:




The silver paper market:




The paper market is bullish. Rising OI and falling net short positions. Which means the commercials are getting long.

The commercials are now required to be hedged in the physical market via Basel III. No more paper hedging paper. Premiums in the physical are blowing out as there is a definite shortage of physical. The paper markets are in backwardation. By pretty significant amounts as well, which is risky as it provides an arbitrage with spot. However, that is just how tight the physical markets have become, squeezing the shorts hard.

BAC is stuck in an 800 million ounce short position in the paper (inherited from JPM) that they are trying to work out of. They cannot deliver on an 800 million ounce position. They can only hedge the position with physical by transferring it from the SLV ETF via Bank of New York, Mellon and the Trustee who provide consent. This is not deliverable...it can only be used as short term collateral as it is an unallocated physical position in SLV. You cannot buy an 800 million ounces until late this year/next year. All gone for that sort of size anyway.

Short story: silver is bullish because silver follows gold in the early stages of a bull market. Therefore gold is in a bull market because silver is currently very bullish. It is hard to see gold, far easier to see silver.






jog on
duc


----------



## Telamelo

Spot Gold now US $1,910 equates to AUD $2,661


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just hold on to your horses.

It is going to be a bumpy ride, not counting currency AUD/USD which will make it even bumpier. 




gg


----------



## mullokintyre

Most of my gold stocks down today.
WAF down 5%, SSR down 4%, Tie down 5%, despite the increase in gold since last Fridays close.
Methinks that the Big Banks will have had their instructions from the FED to bring in the paper shorts and  cause a sell down of gold in US tonite.
Mick


----------



## CityIndex

mullokintyre said:


> Most of my gold stocks down today.
> WAF down 5%, SSR down 4%, Tie down 5%, despite the increase in gold since last Fridays close.
> Methinks that the Big Banks will have had their instructions from the FED to bring in the paper shorts and  cause a sell down of gold in US tonite.
> Mick



The current decline in gold seems to be coming from a rotation out of safe-havens, with riskier assets, like equities, rallying on news of a potential Biden-Putin meeting this week. If it begins to look like a more diplomatic solution can be reached, the precious metal might be at risk of a significant pullback.

However, reports suggest that the meeting has only been agreed by Biden in principle, subject to Russia not invading Ukraine before then. With gold prices hovering just below 1900, if the potential for a peaceful agreement does breakdown, we could still see a strong rally above this key resistance level.

All trading carries risk, but it will be worth keeping an eye on gold as the situation develops.


----------



## eskys

mullokintyre said:


> Most of my gold stocks down today.
> WAF down 5%, SSR down 4%, Tie down 5%, despite the increase in gold since last Fridays close.
> Methinks that the Big Banks will have had their instructions from the FED to bring in the paper shorts and  cause a sell down of gold in US tonite.
> Mick



US not trading tonight, as far as I know, Presidents Day


----------



## Sean K

CityIndex said:


> The current decline in gold seems to be coming from a rotation out of safe-havens, with riskier assets, like equities, rallying on news of a potential Biden-Putin meeting this week. If it begins to look like a more diplomatic solution can be reached, the precious metal might be at risk of a significant pullback.
> 
> However, reports suggest that the meeting has only been agreed by Biden in principle, subject to Russia not invading Ukraine before then. With gold prices hovering just below 1900, if the potential for a peaceful agreement does breakdown, we could still see a strong rally above this key resistance level.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it will be worth keeping an eye on gold as the situation develops.




Now the winter olympics rock show is over China will start buzzing Taiwan again, so we may have two things to worry about. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the deal Vlad and Xi agreed on before the olympics. Just hold off until we get the last ski bunny off the pistes.


----------



## stanwell

Sean K said:


> Now the winter olympics rock show is over China will start buzzing Taiwan again, so we may have two things to worry about. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the deal Vlad and Xi agreed on before the olympics. Just hold off until we get the last ski bunny off the pistes.



Unless Taiwan does something to provoke it, China is not ready to have any action against Taiwan any time soon. Both Xi and US senior military officers (past and present) openly said it. 

China will only take over Taiwan when it's chip industry can survive boycott and it's economy can live without the west. Not yet.


----------



## Sean K

stanwell said:


> Unless Taiwan does something to provoke it, China is not ready to have any action against Taiwan any time soon. Both Xi and US senior military officers (past and present) openly said it.
> 
> China will only take over Taiwan when it's chip industry can survive boycott and it's economy can live without the west. Not yet.




Agree, but they can start doing a lot of other stuff to Taiwan short of storming the beaches. May not provide the same excitement as 150,000 Russians at the border though.


----------



## ducati916

Central Banks have a permanent bid under gold:




jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD is still showing upward momentum but it is entering a resistance zone coming from the Jan '21 gap so in the absence of some external stimulus I would expect some reaction in this zone.


----------



## Sean K

Disregarding the end of the ski bunny displays, geopolitics and inflation/interest rate excuses for gold movement, I still keep USD1850 POG as the break up point and short term support. If it consolidates between 1850-1900 and develops a base between these levels I will be happy.


----------



## DaveTrade

ducati916 said:


> It's actually easier to see what is happening in the gold market via the silver market




I thought it was interesting how the SLV market was reacting to the 200 day SMA, so for interest, have a look;


----------



## signalFollower

DaveTrade said:


> I thought it was interesting how the SLV market was reacting to the 200 day SMA, so for interest, have a look;
> View attachment 137985




this is also a  good read with commentary from mltiple Analysts, covering both Gold and Silver

https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/forecast-survey-2022


----------



## signalFollower

signalFollower said:


> this is also a  good read with commentary from mltiple Analysts, covering both Gold and Silver
> 
> https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/forecast-survey-2022
> 
> 
> View attachment 137987




with my investment in Antilles Gold (AAU) I've found myself reading up quite a bit onGold and Silver prices / trends / sources of demand etc etc etc


----------



## rederob

Just posting this chart for the record:


As can be seen, POG has risen $133 since 28 January, so its ascent has been strong.
With the likelihood of Russian issues muddying global markets over coming weeks it's reasonable to think POG should continue its uptrend for a while yet. Jumping its next hurdle will signal a push to recover its previous record high and continue.
But as always, it's a choppy ride getting there.


----------



## CityIndex

Gold prices are surging past $1920 with safe-haven assets rallying on reports that Putin has authorised a special military operation in Donbas. 

Could we now see the rally extend to to the $1950/60 resistance zone as the market braces for the potential economic and political consequences that may follow?

All trading carries risk, but this is definitely going to be worth watching heading into the end of the week.


----------



## rederob

CityIndex said:


> Gold prices are surging past $1920 with safe-haven assets rallying on reports that Putin has authorised a special military operation in Donbas.
> 
> Could we now see the rally extend to to the $1950/60 resistance zone as the market braces for the potential economic and political consequences that may follow?
> 
> All trading carries risk, but this is definitely going to be worth watching heading into the end of the week.



Yep - POG got a speeding fine for not slowing down at $1920:


It's just settled down a tad from $1926 but the big action usually happens around NY opening times, so let's see what they reckon.


----------



## Sean K

CNN reporting live that there's bombs dropping near Kiev.


----------



## gartley

My Long Term EW 2c worth on POG.  Presently tracing out wave 5 of 5 with a potential terminus @ around 2550 upper parallel TL.  Remembering ofcourse that wave 5's in PM's  being fear based should result in blue wave 5 being extended and the longest wave.

Having said that, if wave 5's in PM's are usally extended then the question begs will it go a lot higher than that as red wave 5 itself may result in an extension?!


----------



## mullokintyre

So now there is actually a real crisis on our hands, with the possibility that large chunks of the world are at war, its  educational to look at what is happening to those assets that people turn to in times of crisis.
Gold seems to be the sset class of choice.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

If one goes to the Kitco.com site for the POG Charts one sees this interesting table on the RHS of the page. 



Once the 30d percentage increase becomes > 6m percentage increase in POG it is hang on to your hat time. It has been approximating and when it crosses over hang on to your hat. 

gg


----------



## rederob

First the good news: *POG breaches $1955*.

Next a point of interest.  Some investors are of the view that silver gives a good idea of where gold is heading, so I indexed silver against POG for February to date and got this result from a 30 minute chart:


As you can see the correlation is very strong.
All we really see is POG and silver moving in the same direction, with silver prices typically moving proportionately more.
Indexing prices carries the risk of choosing a poor starting point and thereby skewing discrepancies in subsequent movements.
I found no evidence that silver was a predictor of gold's price movements using various time periods and charting variously from minutes to hours.


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price $2,750 !!! My $3,000 call the other day here doesn't seem that far fetched anymore lol


----------



## signalFollower

Gold enroute to $2000 USD ?? and that's all time high there on the left, it's been a big February for Gold that's for sure






and this is why, this 8th Feb suggestion from a Newsletter publication was so on the money, Mine Developers not being impacted by higher fuel costs etc etc, but the resource in the ground is appreciating, it all becomes how much of the price move becomes sustained.




hence I hold AAU


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> AUD Gold price $2,750 !!! My $3,000 call the other day here doesn't seem that far fetched anymore lol


----------



## DannyB0000

Gold heading for $2000 usd by the weekend, up 3% in European trade, up $60 usd in 24 hours which is exciting to watch, compared with last year.  Satisfying seeing Crypto crash instead, hopefully we don’t end up WW3 though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

A bit of a sell-off. 

Some say Russia selling gold which I believe to be highly unlikely. 

More likely Turkey selling and risk of stagflation. 




gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A bit of a sell-off.
> 
> Some say Russia selling gold which I believe to be highly unlikely.
> 
> More likely Turkey selling and risk of stagflation.
> 
> View attachment 138101
> 
> 
> gg




Wohaaa. Wasn’t expecting that sell off. Profit taking? Was the vision last night a media beat up? Was Russia a large buyer last year? Perhaps attacking Ukraine was part of a pump and dump plan? An expensive one. I was expecting gold to be around $2k this am.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Wohaaa. Wasn’t expecting that sell off. Profit taking? Was the vision last night a media beat up? Was Russia a large buyer last year? Perhaps attacking Ukraine was part of a pump and dump plan? An expensive one. I was expecting gold to be around $2k this am.
> 
> View attachment 138102



That is what attracts me to the markets. 

The unpredictability. 

BTC has made a comeback on high volume as Gold fell. 

Gold is now rallying off $USD1880.

gg

I am just going with the flow, no predictions, no expectations.


----------



## mullokintyre

The Plunge Protection to the rescue again.
At the open, the DJIA plunged to a low of 32272, down some 850   points.
it recovered during the day to finish 33 down.
Gold opened higher and was bid up to 1976 before it was sold off big time to a low of 1877 before a small rally saw it finish below 1900.
You can see why the CB's around the world apart from Russia and China do not want the gold  price to be soaring.
The two odd ones have been buying gold  for years, as they have both stated that their currency will be backed by gold.
Can't reward the naughty boys by allowing their currency support mechanism to rise steeply.
Mick


----------



## qldfrog

mullokintyre said:


> The Plunge Protection to the rescue again.
> At the open, the DJIA plunged to a low of 32272, down some 850   points.
> it recovered during the day to finish 33 down.
> Gold opened higher and was bid up to 1976 before it was sold off big time to a low of 1877 before a small rally saw it finish below 1900.
> You can see why the CB's around the world apart from Russia and China do not want the gold  price to be soaring.
> The two odd ones have been buying gold  for years, as they have both stated that their currency will be backed by gold.
> Can't reward the naughty boys by allowing their currency support mechanism to rise steeply.
> Mick



Well good opportunity for individuals to load up at prices sponsored by the fed banks


----------



## henrietta

Just print more money. Works a treat apparently ....... though I can't see how.
Cheers
J


----------



## mullokintyre

henrietta said:


> Just print more money. Works a treat apparently ....... though I can't see how.
> Cheers
> J



Mate of mine tried printing money using an offset press.
Currently out on parole, though he says it was safer inside.
Mick


----------



## Telamelo

Chief commodity strategist Caroline Bain of Capital Economics said an escalation of the Ukraine conflict – could send gold to new records in the months ahead.

“As for gold, we now expect safe-haven demand to drive it's price higher in the coming weeks and months,” she said.

“If the Ukraine tensions rumble on, we now think that the price of gold will remain firmly over US $2,000 per ounce in the first half of this year before falling back in the second half of the year as the historical relationship with US yields starts to reassert itself.

“Any escalation in the conflict could result in the gold price moving close to US $2,500.”


----------



## Ann

I have been looking into volume spikes as a potential indicator of future price movements. Gold and oil experienced a massive spike at high price levels, if the volume spike theory works then gold and oil may see a pretty solid retrace. I also note that the S&P500 had a massive volume spike at the very low point of the recent price fall. My thought is it may see a good rise, will it be enough to take it out of the doldrums or is it merely a dead cat bounce?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Ann said:


> I have been looking into volume spikes as a potential indicator of future price movements. Gold and oil experienced a massive spike at high price levels, if the volume spike theory works then gold and oil may see a pretty solid retrace. I also note that the S&P500 had a massive volume spike at the very low point of the recent price fall. My thought is it may see a good rise, will it be enough to take it out of the doldrums or is it merely a dead cat bounce?
> 
> View attachment 138229



Thanks @Ann .

It is always difficult to chart Gold but there appears to be a correlation between large volume on your chart and trend change following. Although this by no means immediate.

For longer term investors such as I it is a reasonable indicator of a coming change. 

I plan to further accumulate Gold at any smidgen below $USD1800. I don't see a longer term change in trend to the downside with that 6 mo. consolidation you have posted. 

gg


----------



## Ann

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I plan to further accumulate Gold at any smidgen below $USD1800. I don't see a longer term change in trend to the downside with that 6 mo. consolidation you have posted.




I am looking at silver as it appears to have more upside than gold when I do head-on into PMs. Watch out for gold if it fails $1780, that is its historic quarterly support line from September 2012.  It is in a bearish rising wedge pattern on the quarterly chart at the moment, and there is a potential for it to fall back to around $1400 if it fails $1780. Caution is warranted.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold chart analysis from 21:50 onwards


----------



## Cam019

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I plan to further accumulate Gold at any smidgen below $USD1800.





Ann said:


> Caution is warranted.




I would not be surprised to see XAUUSD at $1516.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Cam019 said:


> I would not be surprised to see XAUUSD at $1516.





gg


----------



## Sean K

Cam019 said:


> I would not be surprised to see XAUUSD at $1516.




There’s always a chance this consolidation from the ATH could go on for some time, but short term it still looks more bullish to me with the higher lows since Oct and breaking the Nov high and critical 1850 level of the flag. Obviously this 1900 ish level is important and is hard to beat. I‘d be happy for consolidation above 1850 to gather some steam for a run clearly through 1900. 🤞


----------



## Cam019

Garpal Gumnut said:


> gg




Each to their own GG. But, have a look at the USD/JPY vs XAU/USD. I don't know about you, but I see a strong negative correlation.







Plus, I'm bullish on the USD/JPY. So either the USD/JPY and XAU/USD are going to move out of their inverse correlation into lockstep for the first time in well.. forever, *or* in my opinion their correlation will hold and we will see weakness in the XAU/USD.

Also take a look at the Yen Futures vs. the USD/JPY. Almost a -1.0 correlation here and nothing looks bullish in regards to the Yen Futs.

Bullish USD/JPY. Bearish Yen Futs and XAU/USD.


----------



## DaveTrade

@Cam019 you make a strong case but I still have hope for more upside to come;


----------



## Cam019

@DaveTrade looking at GLD I would be expecting price to come back to at least the level marked which is $167.99 - $169.10.


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> gg




 i disagree   , while i hope gold ( price ) explodes into the stratosphere  ,  , Friday's US trading ( in stocks particularly ) looked like the Plunge Protection Team  breaking out the big weapons  .. and despite all logic  it also looks like cash flowing into US Treasuries 

 i say beware of treachery ( way beyond the usual deceit )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Cam019 said:


> @DaveTrade looking at GLD I would be expecting price to come back to at least the level marked which is $167.99 - $169.10.






divs4ever said:


> i disagree   , while i hope gold ( price ) explodes into the stratosphere  ,  , Friday's US trading ( in stocks particularly ) looked like the Plunge Protection Team  breaking out the big weapons  .. and despite all logic  it also looks like cash flowing into US Treasuries
> 
> i say beware of treachery ( way beyond the usual deceit )



I hear what you both are saying. 

Let us see how Mr. Market takes it all on Monday. 

Nobody really knows, there will be wild swings in everything. 

gg


----------



## ducati916

The COMEX price is actually only half a price because (a) it is leveraged and manipulated and (b) takes no account of the physical market. Basel III has reduced the use of unallocated gold in ratcheting the leverage much higher (100:1) as now the only unallocated gold that can primarily be used is the GLD unallocated.

Fundamental demand continues to underpin gold:










This is just Chinese retail.

Central Bank demand is opaque, but believed to be much higher. Add in the rest of the world's CB demand (Russia, Germany, et al) and the COMEX price can be seen to be quite misleading.

Here is the manipulation:




Notice overall the significant loss of volume. This is the loss of paper leverage due to Basel III and as the various bullion banks became compliant through mid 2021.

jog on
duc


----------



## Telamelo

With Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine & NATO alliance... expect gold price to shoot up again.

Crypto AUD Gold price gained +$40 just this morning..


----------



## againsthegrain

This champagne cork will pop off sooner or later, we have
- nazis on the front door of Europe
- mad leader seeing red over his personal emotions
- has real nukes
- world is taking sides

this is no Kimberly from the north with a few plastic toy missiles who half the world laughs at


----------



## Sean K

Never heard Pierre Lassonde speak, famous for his Curve. Thought he was an old dead guy. What did I know.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Never heard Pierre Lassonde speak, famous for his Curve. Thought he was an old dead guy. What did I know.




Mr @ducati916  might like that youtube, and the interviewer is quite pleasant.
I disagree with Pierre cf USD supremacy .. what about Yuan?


----------



## rederob

POG is now overstretched, but the Ukranian crisis could propel it a lot higher near term.   Here's the hourly trend for the past month:



How NATO cannot intervene after Russia's indiscriminate shelling of civilians las night is a mystery.


----------



## rederob

Another jump of the hurdle last night as seen on this hourly chart:


Assuming a continuation of this short term uptrend then POG hits$2000 again before end of March.
Not that I ever get my preference, but some consolidation around current levels would be handy so that we don't see another rapid bout of profit taking.

(the white band above is perfectly horizontal but this type of chart lends itself to an optical illusion that slopes it down on the right)


----------



## Greynomad99

For what it is worth GLD has made a pretty reasonable Elliott Wave cycle over the past 20 years which suggests to me it is breaking up out of Wave 4 into Wave 5 - which theory says should head back above $2,100 on this chart. With Ukraine likely to be an ongoing issue for a time - even if Putin wins the battle he may eventually loose the war (we can hope!). Gold, as a safe haven, should push higher in that environment.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like a breakout to me.












						Gold and silver appear to be ready to rock
					

(Kitco commentary) - Gold and silver saw a solid open Sunday night, but by Monday morning, it had all the appearances of a repeat of ThursdayÃ¢??s price action.



					www.kitco.com


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Looks like a breakout to me.
> 
> View attachment 138403
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold and silver appear to be ready to rock
> 
> 
> (Kitco commentary) - Gold and silver saw a solid open Sunday night, but by Monday morning, it had all the appearances of a repeat of ThursdayÃ¢??s price action.
> 
> 
> 
> www.kitco.com



Thanks @Sean K 

Gold has traditionally been "Buy Local".

I may be old fashioned but it is a store of wealth or fear of lost wealth in local currency. In war it is worth what it gets me NOW. 

I prefer $AUD2843.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @Sean K
> 
> Gold has traditionally been "Buy Local".
> 
> I may be old fashioned but it is a store of wealth or fear of lost wealth in local currency. In war it is worth what it gets me NOW.
> 
> I prefer $AUD2843.
> 
> gg


----------



## Telamelo

Our AUD Gold price sitting @ $2,680 as we speak.. I think it'll reach $3,000 by April on escalation of Ukraine war/crisis extending into neighbouring countries where it will spread like wild fire (upon NATO getting involved).


----------



## mullokintyre

Telamelo said:


> Our AUD Gold price sitting @ $2,680 as we speak.. I think it'll reach $3,000 by April on escalation of Ukraine war/crisis extending into neighbouring countries where it will spread like wild fire (upon NATO getting involved).



as much as I would benefit from the shooting up of the gold price, I sincerely hope you are wrong.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Thanks @Sean K and @Telamelo . 

I can see Gold hitting $USD2000 and $AUD2800-3000.

It depends on the AUD/USD 




gg


----------



## Telamelo

mullokintyre said:


> as much as I would benefit from the shooting up of the gold price, I sincerely hope you are wrong.
> Mick



Yeah Mick same here as I really hope for peace as well  (have all my extended family throughout Europe).


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

PMGOLD is Perth Mint bar. 

Multiply by 100 to find out Gold Price per oz. in $AUD.

That RSI is a worry. there may be a retracement to a previous trend line at some stage. 




gg


----------



## qldfrog

Telamelo said:


> Yeah Mick same here as I really hope for peace as well  (have all my extended family throughout Europe).



Same here but when Nato aka US and EU government starts saying they will send weapons to Ukraine, that obviously force the Russians to widen the offensive  instead of just seizing back the Russian southern and eastern areas, imho their initial plan.
You do not need to be Einstein to understand this..but need more than a journalism degree it seems
Why would they wait and see trucks/rail bringing in weapons against them and stay idle?
So now they have to go full annexion.
More bombing of transport infrastructure within Ukraine..i mean the real Ukraine.
It's all good to play politics and grand standing but when it worsen the situation,its people you kill by a TV declaration.
So looking at it objectively, the west started and now is fuelling a major hot war.Poor Ukrainians..the toy of geopolitical games...
Indeed good for gold but i cringe each time i hear the EU leaders speak.
What's next?
So i keep my strong gold position for the time being.


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> So looking at it objectively, the west started and now is fuelling a major hot war.




The only contribution the West could have made to this was establishing the Ukrainian borders which meant big parts of Ukraine were ethnic Slav and Russian speakers. I don’t think they did.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> The only contribution the West could have made to this was establishing the Ukrainian borders which meant big parts of Ukraine were ethnic Slav and Russian speakers. I don’t think they did.



I hope you are kidding.
US has pushed further and further with talk of NATO and EU membership for ukraine, not atarted yesterday.what do you think Biden 's son was doing during Obama and what do you think the Ukrainian regime was doing once Biden was back in power with its leverage?
There was a tacit/implicit agreement during the berlin wall collapse that a buffer zone would remain.
i highly invite you to read this 2009 book by Friedman about the next 100y.
This will clearly explain  the play of the US there, Ukraine Bielorussia and the road ahead especially for Poland and Turkey,and EU complete collapse
In a nutshell the play of the US is to destabilise and avoid rise of any potential contestant to world supremacy.
imho, they lost with China, but Middle East , Europe/EU and Russia: done and success.
Morally, they deserve a nice karma..but history does not care about right and wrong.
The big losers ahead imho with this mess: Ukrainian obviously, EU as number 2, maybe Russia but we will talk again in 3 to 5 y.
The big winner: China, India..the US imho has no clue as what it unleashed..and may get a splashback it deserves
So for geo political play, people are dying.......
And people were celebrating good Biden vs Evil Trump..😭


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> I hope you are kidding.
> US has pushed further and further with talk of NATO and EU membership for ukraine, not atarted yesterday.what do you think Biden 's son was doing during Obama and what do you think the Ukrainian regime was doing once Biden was back in power with its leverage?
> There was a tacit/implicit agreement during the berlin wall collapse that a buffer zone would remain.
> i highly invite you to read this 2009 book by Friedman about the next 100y.
> This will clearly explain  the play of the US there, Ukraine Bielorussia and the road ahead especially for Poland and Turkey,and EU complete collapse
> In a nutshell the play of the US is to destabilise and avoid rise of any potential contestant to world supremacy.
> imho, they lost with China, but Middle East , Europe/EU and Russia: done and success.
> Morally, they deserve a nice karma..but history does not care about right and wrong.
> The big losers ahead imho with this mess: Ukrainian obviously, EU as number 2, maybe Russia but we will talk again in 3 to 5 y.
> The big winner: China, India..the US imho has no clue as what it unleashed..and may get a splashback it deserves
> So for geo political play, people are dying.......
> And people were celebrating good Biden vs Evil Trump..😭




Covid didn't work out as means to cull the population, plan B nukular war, that will do it 🤪


----------



## DaveTrade

qldfrog said:


> So for geo political play, people are dying.......



Agree there are many complex issues involved here but people are dying because they are being bombed, shelled and shot at.


----------



## qldfrog

DaveTrade said:


> Agree there are many complex issues involved here but people are dying because they are being bombed, shelled and shot at.



My point..but i would really hope people look a bit behind the bullet.
The big boys play chess at planet level and people die.
So would is guilty? The shell maker, the 20y old artillery kid who press on a button 10km away,his officer,his general, Putin,or the strategists in the swamp playing with Russia for the last decades .no illusions there,they have matching Russian opponents of the same dark capacities
Biden obviously can not be personally involved whereas Putin can  due to cognitive capabilities, or absence of for POTUS.
That's the only difference .
So gold has still plenty of uptrend ahead imho


----------



## DaveTrade

qldfrog said:


> My point..but i would really hope people look a bit behind the bullet.



Everyone involved have been pushing their own agenda, their own interests, to gain the best advantage for them, I can even understand where Putin is coming from as a Russian Nationalist but I blame Putin not Russia for choosing war, the man is drunk on power. I really think that if he doesn't finish this war soon then he could be removed from power internally. Russians are being ordered to kill their brothers and sisters.


----------



## rederob

In my previous post I showed the hurdle that needed to be well and truly cleared before POG was likely to push towards $2000.
Tonight is attempt #6.
What is interesting is that in the 2 weeks between POG has traded in a $97 dollar range, but always with an upside slant.
Below is the short term trend and, being a Friday night, anything can happen between now and overseas close of trading tomorrow morning:


My inkling is a close above $1950.
If that's to happen then the momentum necessary to push over $2k this month should be in place.
Supporting this idea is the fact that Russia has made a real mess of Ukraine and unless there is a NATO intervention soon then POG's downside is likely to be shortlived.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold currently at US $1,970 +$34 equates to AUD Gold $2,668  and Copper is up another +2.6%


----------



## Sean K

Highly likely the Handle it breaking up. Good luck to gold bugs.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'm calling USD$2000+ for Gold next week. 

The cousins from Guam dropped yesterdays WSJ in to the hotel last night after landing at Garbutt Field. 

Russia will have immense problems in trade both in receipts for Oil from Europe and paying for goods to China. Gold will be the intermediate currency for trade in the Euro and the Renminbi. 

I will add further. 

.
	

		
			
		

		
	




gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm calling USD$2000+ for Gold next week.
> 
> The cousins from Guam dropped yesterdays WSJ in to the hotel last night after landing at Garbutt Field.
> 
> Russia will have immense problems in trade both in receipts for Oil from Europe and paying for goods to China. Gold will be the intermediate currency for trade in the Euro and the Renminbi.
> 
> I will add further.
> 
> .
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 138612
> 
> 
> gg




I think there's quite a war premium priced into POG at the moment, but once that's gone inflation will be the focus. Then China will attack Taiwan... So, the planets are aligning for the yellow metal. 

Must be some healthy consolidation soon, probably under the Aug 20 high of $2070. I'd be very happy for consolidation above old resistance across the $1950 mark, but the overall market's so volatile we could see some pretty big swings depending on war news and rumour. Case in point the uranium plant BS yesterday.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I think there's quite a war premium priced into POG at the moment, but once that's gone inflation will be the focus. Then China will attack Taiwan... So, the planets are aligning for the yellow metal.
> 
> Must be some healthy consolidation soon, probably under the Aug 20 high of $2070. I'd be very happy for consolidation above old resistance across the $1950 mark, but the overall market's so volatile we could see some pretty big swings depending on war news and rumour. Case in point the uranium plant BS yesterday.



More from the WSJ

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm calling USD$2000+ for Gold next week.



Certainly looking good as we have 2 more days of Ukranian devastation to pump up the very many commodity sectors plus precious metals before Monday's market opens 
again:


A big question is what happens when Russia has to call it a day.  In the meantime, the question is how long will it take as gold's safe haven status appears to have been resurrected while cryptos are coming off the boil.


----------



## DaveTrade

I think that GLD is headed up to the 190-195 area, it's still got good volume coming into the move up.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> I think that GLD is headed up to the 190-195 area, it's still got good volume coming into the move up.
> View attachment 138625




That volume and break through previous resistance would lead to that zone. Should expect it to stop around there for a break. 

While I think gold's move has been more long term fundamental and technical than on daily news, I don't think we can discount wild swings due to significant events in Ukraine. For eg, a sudden cease fire and truce could stop gold in it's tracks. On the other hand, if a stray bomb hits a NATO country, or if Russia does something way outside the normal laws of war that brings an international military response, then gold could go parabolic.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> That volume and break through previous resistance would lead to that zone. Should expect it to stop around there for a break.
> 
> While I think gold's move has been more long term fundamental and technical than on daily news, I don't think we can discount wild swings due to significant events in Ukraine. For eg, a sudden cease fire and truce could stop gold in it's tracks. On the other hand, if a stray bomb hits a NATO country, or if Russia does something way outside the normal laws of war that brings an international military response, then gold could go parabolic.



I saw @divs4ever mention AIS in another thread and had a bit of a look at them. 

They managed to get ANZ recently to fix their production at AUD$2640 from memory, so the Gold desks at the banks must be looking at an increase in POG this year. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I saw @divs4ever mention AIS in another thread and had a bit of a look at them.
> 
> They managed to get ANZ recently to fix their production at AUD$2640 from memory, so the Gold desks at the banks must be looking at an increase in POG this year.
> 
> gg




And, there's a few gold companies who have produced PFS/DFS in the past two years based on USD1400-1600 ish POG. Once they come out with BFS/FID based on $2000 POG it's going to significantly change the landscape. For eg, TIE has used USD1400 on their DFS. They might be able to change that to start with a 2 in any updated DFS/FID. I don't think general punters realise how significant the potential uplift in POG is going to have on developers and producers with high leverage to POG, less inflationary costs.


----------



## Telamelo

Sean K said:


> And, there's a few gold companies who have produced PFS/DFS in the past two years based on USD1400-1600 ish POG. Once they come out with BFS/FID based on $2000 POG it's going to significantly change the landscape. For eg, TIE has used USD1400 on their DFS. They might be able to change that to start with a 2 in any updated DFS/FID. I don't think general punters realise how significant the potential uplift in POG is going to have on developers and producers with high leverage to POG, less inflationary costs.



I agree well said..  & reason I really like upcoming producer TUL



			https://tullaresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2022-02-01-Bell-Potter-Research-report.pdf
		










						Tulla Resources Plc (ASX:TUL) Share Price - Market Index
					

Today's TUL share price, stock chart and announcements. View dividend history, insider trades and ASX analyst consensus.




					www.marketindex.com.au


----------



## rederob

What a difference a weekend makes!
Up $20 at open, and has now tailed off a tad as noted on the 15 minute chart below:


No doubt at all that gold is now finding itself as the asset to own in a crisis.


----------



## Sean K

Gold bugs rejoice.  

But, there's got to be a correction at some stage. Maybe when Russia calls a cease fire and they go to the negotiation table for how much of the eastern side of Ukraine they keep. 

$2070 should be the next stop.


----------



## DannyB0000

Gold $2000 usd now, just checked CNBC now,  hopefully stays there for while.  Exciting time for Goldies.


----------



## DannyB0000

DannyB0000 said:


> Gold $2000 usd now, just checked CNBC now,  hopefully stays there for while.  Exciting time for Goldies.





DannyB0000 said:


> Gold $2000 usd now, just checked CNBC now,  hopefully stays there for while.  Exciting time for Goldies.



Gold up 1.7 % in Asian trade


----------



## rederob

As you can see from the weekly chart below, the long term trend from 2015 nadir still has the present high price comfortably in range:


To break above the present trend would put POG above 2100.
I know some chartists will soon weigh in so let's see what fibonacci's and EWs suggest where the price is heading.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> As you can see from the weekly chart below, the long term trend from 2015 nadir still has the present high price comfortably in range:
> View attachment 138703
> 
> To break above the present trend would put POG above 2100.
> I know some chartists will soon weigh in so let's see what fibonacci's and EWs suggest where the price is heading.



Thanks @rederob 

The POG in $AUD imo is due to retrace a bit before the next big move. It has been in a more consistent uptrend than POG/$USD. 

As to your chart. 

On EW     W1.   2017-218
                 W2.   2018
                 W3.   2018-2020
                 W4.   2021

                 W5.    2022 Has begun. Either a monster or a modest gain similar to W1.

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

I have taken a few profits on my gold shares today.
Still have shares in a number of them, but have sold most recent purchase that were bought between 10 and 15% below these levels.
The recent run up will retrace at some point , and I will buy back in.
Mick


----------



## ducati916

Clowns at LBMA




So with physical gold under tremendous pressure, the LBMA restricts further physical supply. The leverage is going to rise causing a dislocation in price...gold moves higher.

Which we saw today. The Bullion banks tried to tamp this morning, silver took a bit of a hit but gold just powered higher despite paper selling.

jog on
duc


----------



## Telamelo

Well waking up seeing Gold at US $2,002 equates to AUD Gold price $2,731 makes my morning coffee ☕ so much more enjoyable lol

Still holding all my regular Goldie's OGC, SLR, TUL, RED and RMS

Cheers tela


----------



## bsnews

The hard part will be when to sell. last time I had profit I failed to take it.
Will this time be different? I hope so but not yet for me.
I am in
EVN
NST
RRL shame here I got in at the high.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'll be looking at more Gold when it retraces to $AUD 2669. 

Don't ask me why, I believe I maybe did it on a retracement of a trend line of PMGOLD yesterday. For some reason that number sticks in my tiny hindbrain.

Bitcoin is very resilient and if it survives this year I may follow or invest. Otherwise I'm waiting for it to go to c**p when Gold will carry on to $AUD 3000+

I don't have the ability to chart gold in $ USA.

gg


----------



## ducati916

Some data:







So the COMEX is seeing an increase in Hedge Funds going long. This will be in contradistinction to the BB who (as we saw this morning) will be increasingly short on the COMEX.

They will (the BB) be long in the spot market via GLD etc. The reason being that they can use the unallocated GLD etc, physical as collateral on their COMEX short position as per Basel III NSFR requirements.

The 'thing is', that the actual gold bullion bought in the spot market can be made deliverable in the future, it possibly cannot be taken delivery of today, as there isn't sufficient gold available (certainly this is true of silver).

They can still however use the promise of future delivery to fund NSFR ratios.

Except that now the LBMA is not accepting Russian gold as 'good delivery'. China never exports its production.

In the Repo. markets:




We have another blow-up building. Banks having moved from $1T/overnight reverse-repo (too much cash) to not enough cash currently. Another liquidity crisis in the eurodollar market might only be days away.

A major Chinese bank couldn't make margin payments on the Nickel debacle this morning.

Pressure is building everywhere in the system.

jog on
duc


----------



## DannyB0000

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'll be looking at more Gold when it retraces to $AUD 2669.
> 
> Don't ask me why, I believe I maybe did it on a retracement of a trend line of PMGOLD yesterday. For some reason that number sticks in my tiny hindbrain.
> 
> Bitcoin is very resilient and if it survives this year I may follow or invest. Otherwise I'm waiting for it to go to c**p when Gold will carry on to $AUD 3000+
> 
> I don't have the ability to chart gold in $ USA.
> 
> gg



Try bullionvault.com.  You find a gold chart at this website including Silver.  You can download the app as well if you want


----------



## rederob

Below is a 5-minute chart for gold since yesterday.  It looks more like a daily price chart over the past 6 months, given the trading range is over $70:


Looks like oil and gold are taking turns to make new near term highs.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Below is a 5-minute chart for gold since yesterday.  It looks more like a daily price chart over the past 6 months, given the trading range is over $70:
> View attachment 138787
> 
> Looks like oil and gold are taking turns to make new near term highs.



It looks as if my plan to buy some more Gold is just that, a plan. Gold seems to be on a tear. 

$USD 2022 last time I looked. 

No point in being greedy waiting for a retrace to $AUD 2669, I've got enough. 

Although we are heading in to the London cousins trading session and they usually take profits and it falls. 

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It looks as if my plan to buy some more Gold is just that, a plan. Gold seems to be on a tear.
> 
> $USD 2022 last time I looked.
> 
> No point in being greedy waiting for a retrace to $AUD 2669, I've got enough.
> 
> Although we are heading in to the London cousins trading session and they usually take profits and it falls.
> 
> gg



I know @peter2 was very disappointed in gold's trajectory last year, so I wonder if he saw this one coming and caught a ride.
I am very overweight gold and sold nothing since adding more in 2020.  I realise I could have traded the ups and downs in between times but day to day POG is unpredictable.
And while you only posted minutes ago, POG is back down to $2006.
See what I mean!


----------



## mullokintyre

And Gold up another 1% to  AUD2761.
Will it break 2800?
Will it keep going so I finally break even on DCN?
Exciting times!
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> I know @peter2 was very disappointed in gold's trajectory last year, so I wonder if he saw this one coming and caught a ride.
> I am very overweight gold and sold nothing since adding more in 2020.  I realise I could have traded the ups and downs in between times but day to day POG is unpredictable.
> And while you only posted minutes ago, POG is back down to $2006.
> See what I mean!



Those poms are thieving b*****ds. 




gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Those poms are thieving b*****ds.
> 
> View attachment 138793
> 
> 
> gg




does this happen at every single open? 🤬


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> does this happen at every single open? 🤬



No @Sean K , but at some stage during that session it happens more often than not. Or if not, more often than chance compared to other sessions.

I've looked at some way to profit from it, but it is beyond me. Slippage would cruel me. 

Let me know if you have any ideas. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I would say that once the 30 day passes the 6 mo. gain , Gold will get a further run up. We are not yet 36 hours in to this weeks trading and many bugs watch the Kitco chart. 




gg


----------



## Telamelo

Our AUD Gold price is now $2,799
( Yep seems $3K Gold here we come !!! )


----------



## DannyB0000

Gold up 2.45 % in North America trade.  Should be an excellent day for gold shares today. GO GOLD!!! 🚀🚀🚀


----------



## explod

Yep  gold futures in all time high territory and silver up over 5% tonight


----------



## Sean K

Stopped and retreated from ATH, as you'd expect. Will be interesting to see what happens if the war suddenly stops. Not sure how much of a premium is factored in. $100??


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Stopped and retreated from ATH, as you'd expect. Will be interesting to see what happens if the war suddenly stops. Not sure how much of a premium is factored in. $100??
> 
> View attachment 138817



Short term $USD2020 will provide support. 

Gold will not gallop to $USD3000 but gradually saunter there, unless Bitcoin drops below $36000 convincingly when it will go ballistic. 

I say that because in the old days a significant support for Gold was from those whom I call "Madmen" ( no disrespect to the ladies and etc etc .. )  who provided momentum during wars to push Gold higher.  They now trade BTC. 

It is time for the Madmen to return to the Gold fold. 

gg


----------



## rederob

Is POG overstretched?
No, it's overbought.
As seen below, the regression trend from 20 August 2018's low has a lot more headroom for POG.  Also, strong bull runs like the one now typically far exceed the trend high bar.  In fact, if we repeated the August 2020 breach in coming weeks then we arrive above $2300:


----------



## CityIndex

Despite pulling back slight, the longer-term trend indicates that there is still significant upside potential for gold. With geopolitical tensions, and now stagflation/recession concerns, likely to continue weighing on risky-assets, there is scope for demand to hold at the current levels with gold acting as a hedge against inflation, volatility, as well as the war in Ukraine. If price can break the August 2020 high, it could put 2200 in sight.

Of course, it's important to remember that all trading carries risk, and any news to support risk-appetite in the market over the coming days could see gold prices retreat rapidly on profit taking and rotation out of safe-havens.


----------



## ducati916

Physical demand out of the COMEX is breaking the paper stranglehold that the BB have used to suppress the price of silver more than gold. Both are moving despite daily tamps of paper.




jog on
duc


----------



## Sean K

POG had to have a break at some point. Going parabolic was unhealthy. Needs some consolidation around here to set up for the next move higher. Should be some support at 1950 now but still has plenty of room to stabilise above the 1850 breakout area.


----------



## rederob

US Dollar's tumble overnight drags down POG to the tune of $95 in 36 hours:


Nothing like a bit of volatility to keep the price action alive.
Anyone thinking that this frenzy won't continue?
While the war in Ukraine rages expect the unexpected.


----------



## ducati916

Nothing really unexpected, ran pretty hard to the upside:





Should find some support tomorrow after another decline. Won't be as brutal as today's, but will shake latecomers and weak hands or over-leveraged trades out of the developing trend.

* I should add, the US CPI print is due tomorrow. Needless to say it will be ugly. Possibly double digits.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

BTD😁


----------



## Sean K

Rick Rule rules PMs and uranium.









						Rick Rule: How likely is WW3? Here's why Gold price will triple over the next 5 years
					





					www.kitco.com


----------



## ducati916

Further evidence of the tightness in the physical markets:




The EFP positions are growing. JPM had to ship I think 500 tonnes to meet EFP requirements. This is going to badly break down at some point.

For those not familiar with EFP:

An exchange of futures for physical (EFP) is a private agreement between two parties to trade a futures position for the basket of underlying actuals. An exchange of futures for physicals can be used to open a futures position, close a futures position, or switch a futures position for the underlying asset. EFP is calculated as a function of: The number of days between spot and futures delivery, taking into account interest and transport costs.

Due to the (still) enormous disconnect between physical and paper, those buying the available paper contracts that then undertaking an EFP, blows the market up when physical is in short supply, as it is currently.

You can see that the last time that it happened, which was far smaller, what happened to price.

China is most likely behind the move. Ft Knox had better hope they have a legit 8000 tonnes, they will need every Kg very soon.

jog on
duc


----------



## Telamelo

Decent correction in US Gold overnight nudging $1,960 before recovering to $1,990 as we speak.. our AUD Gold trading higher at $2,723 so bullish trend still in tact imo






						Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com
					

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.




					goldbroker.com


----------



## Sean K

One of the outliers with gold is what Russia is going to do to prop up their economy when the reality of sanctions really kick in. One of their options was selling gold, which they've been heavily buying over the past couple of years, just for this event. If they can't sell their gold - even to China, they are double toasted. 

Not exactly sure what effect this will have on POG. 

Exactly where is Russia's physical gold held?

If China takes it at a discount, I assume that could lower the price? 

Not sure. 

Putin has a pot of gold. Republicans and Democrats want to take it away​


By Matt Egan, CNN Business

March 11, 2022

The West is already crushing Russia's economy. Now a bipartisan group of lawmakers want to limit Vladimir Putin's access to Russia's mountain of gold.

A bipartisan bill introduced this week aims to ramp up the financial pressure another notch by making it harder for Moscow to use gold to prop up the crashing ruble. Existing sanctions have not directly targeted the Central Bank of Russia's roughly $130 billion in gold reserves.
"This would tighten the financial noose," Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, told CNN in a phone interview.

The bill, introduced by King, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, would impose secondary sanctions on any American entities that knowingly transact with or transport gold from Russia's central bank holdings. It would similarly penalize American entities that sell gold physically or electronically in Russia.

"We are proposing to cut off one more avenue and increase the financial pressure to get them to stop this brutal campaign in Ukraine," said King, who praised the varying political backgrounds of the bill's sponsors. "You've never seen such a bipartisan bill."

Cornyn, in a statement this week, said the sanctions would target parties that "help Russia finance their war by buying or selling this blood gold."


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> One of the outliers with gold is what Russia is going to do to prop up their economy when the reality of sanctions really kick in. One of their options was selling gold, which they've been heavily buying over the past couple of years, just for this event. If they can't sell their gold - even to China, they are double toasted.
> 
> Not exactly sure what effect this will have on POG.
> 
> Exactly where is Russia's physical gold held?
> 
> If China takes it at a discount, I assume that could lower the price?
> 
> Not sure.
> 
> Putin has a pot of gold. Republicans and Democrats want to take it away​
> View attachment 138994
> 
> By Matt Egan, CNN Business
> 
> March 11, 2022
> 
> The West is already crushing Russia's economy. Now a bipartisan group of lawmakers want to limit Vladimir Putin's access to Russia's mountain of gold.
> 
> A bipartisan bill introduced this week aims to ramp up the financial pressure another notch by making it harder for Moscow to use gold to prop up the crashing ruble. Existing sanctions have not directly targeted the Central Bank of Russia's roughly $130 billion in gold reserves.
> "This would tighten the financial noose," Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, told CNN in a phone interview.
> 
> The bill, introduced by King, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, would impose secondary sanctions on any American entities that knowingly transact with or transport gold from Russia's central bank holdings. It would similarly penalize American entities that sell gold physically or electronically in Russia.
> 
> "We are proposing to cut off one more avenue and increase the financial pressure to get them to stop this brutal campaign in Ukraine," said King, who praised the varying political backgrounds of the bill's sponsors. "You've never seen such a bipartisan bill."
> 
> Cornyn, in a statement this week, said the sanctions would target parties that "help Russia finance their war by buying or selling this blood gold."



There would be some buyers for the gold, Middle Eastern states like Saudi Arabia, China, but not many others would have the readies to pay for bulk anounts of gold.
Assuming Russia decides to sell its gold, and it finds a buyer, what will that buyer pay for the gold with?
If they sell it to China, what would they do with the Renmimbi?
It basically restricts them to trading with China.
And  if they did sell the gold, how would they transport it? Would it be FOB or FOB Destination?
They are more likely to sell oil to China, China would not be at all worried about sanctions from Western Countries, and no one, not even the stupid hawks in America would be foolish to try to blockade or intercept Chinese oil tankers.
They will still get the Renmimbi, but can keep the gold as a last resort.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> One of the outliers with gold is what Russia is going to do to prop up their economy when the reality of sanctions really kick in. One of their options was selling gold, which they've been heavily buying over the past couple of years, just for this event. If they can't sell their gold - even to China, they are double toasted.
> 
> Not exactly sure what effect this will have on POG.
> 
> Exactly where is Russia's physical gold held?
> 
> If China takes it at a discount, I assume that could lower the price?
> 
> Not sure.
> 
> Putin has a pot of gold. Republicans and Democrats want to take it away​
> View attachment 138994
> 
> By Matt Egan, CNN Business
> 
> March 11, 2022
> 
> The West is already crushing Russia's economy. Now a bipartisan group of lawmakers want to limit Vladimir Putin's access to Russia's mountain of gold.
> 
> A bipartisan bill introduced this week aims to ramp up the financial pressure another notch by making it harder for Moscow to use gold to prop up the crashing ruble. Existing sanctions have not directly targeted the Central Bank of Russia's roughly $130 billion in gold reserves.
> "This would tighten the financial noose," Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, told CNN in a phone interview.
> 
> The bill, introduced by King, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, would impose secondary sanctions on any American entities that knowingly transact with or transport gold from Russia's central bank holdings. It would similarly penalize American entities that sell gold physically or electronically in Russia.
> 
> "We are proposing to cut off one more avenue and increase the financial pressure to get them to stop this brutal campaign in Ukraine," said King, who praised the varying political backgrounds of the bill's sponsors. "You've never seen such a bipartisan bill."
> 
> Cornyn, in a statement this week, said the sanctions would target parties that "help Russia finance their war by buying or selling this blood gold."



A very good scenario exercise. 

Putin’s gold is in Russia and is not going to move out imo. Why? Because it is worth more as a reserve and to show that Putin is a “man of respect” in the global Mafia. 

Crypto will be his currency. 

Already the American authorities are refusing to cut off the Crypto houses access to Moscow. Why?  The elite donors to both the Democrats and Republicans got in to Crypto too late to get out even. 

Money flows and dirty money flows seamlessly. 

I’ll buy Gold at AUD $2669 oz. any old day of the week if I can. It will rise and fall greatly though. 

gg


----------



## ducati916

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A very good scenario exercise.
> 
> Putin’s gold is in Russia and is not going to move out imo. Why? Because it is worth more as a reserve and to show that Putin is a “man of respect” in the global Mafia.
> 
> Crypto will be his currency.
> 
> Already the American authorities are refusing to cut off the Crypto houses access to Moscow. Why?  The elite donors to both the Democrats and Republicans got in to Crypto too late to get out even.
> 
> Money flows and dirty money flows seamlessly.
> 
> I’ll buy Gold at AUD $2669 oz. any old day of the week if I can. It will rise and fall greatly though.
> 
> gg




There is a fundamental shift taking place from 'inside money' or Central Bank money, which has been a Treasury Bill standard to 'outside money' which is always necessarily underpinned by collateral, which (are) commodities.

Mr Putin has been cut off from inside money.
Mr Putin has plenty of commodities.

He will not sell gold.
He will sell his commodities for gold.

Hence, gold reprices. 
Look at the supporters of Mr Putin: the Arabs are part of that bloc. They are and will continue to refuse to pump more oil. I see Sen. Rubino is talking about sanctioning China. LOL. Cretin.

The gold market for physical delivery is starting to break down. Blocking Russian miners for good delivery has just accelerated that problem. At this rate BAC is going to collapse. They are getting eaten alive on their silver short also.

jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

Update of the weekly GLD chart;


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I've unrolled some of my Gold. 

It may fall to $USD1900, I'll be looking closely if it stabilises at $AUD2640 but it may descend further than that. 

To $USD1800. 

The quick war spike has frittered out and unless markets worldwide tank, Gold will stabilise a little lower than present prices imo. 

gg


----------



## DaveTrade

Looking at the GLD daily chart, it can be seen that gold has found some support at the 177-179 zone. You can see volume pick up over the last two days from buyers coming in at this level. The retracement down to this level corresponds to a 0.618 pullback. If we get follow-through to the upside tonight then this would be a good re-entry point, I'll see what happens tonight;


----------



## rederob

DaveTrade said:


> Looking at the GLD daily chart, it can be seen that gold has found some support at the 177-179 zone. You can see volume pick up over the last two days from buyers coming in at this level. The retracement down to this level corresponds to a 0.618 pullback. If we get follow-through to the upside tonight then this would be a good re-entry point, I'll see what happens tonight;



You got your re-entry point!


Having just posted a chart on WTI it was interesting to note the strong positive correlation in movements of POG to POO in calendar 2022, although in percentage terms POO is the bigger winner. 
The chart above highlights pivot prices, which were somewhat rangebound until mid-February.  Additionally from the above it's crystal clear that prices ran ahead too rapidly in the first week of March, and the necessary correction occurred.  The trend's lower boundary was not breached and we again look set for POG's bull trend to carry through.


----------



## CityIndex

Now that the central bank meetings are out of the way, the market's focus will likely go back to the war in Ukraine, with peace talks showing little sign of progress, tensions between the US and Russia on the rise.

All trading carries risk, but with the US house now also voting to end regular trading relation with Russia, gold and oil could look to resume their intense rally. Either way, should be very interesting to watch how markets react now.


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD gapped up to open but sold off to close near the low of the day, SLV did the same. Both markets with low volume for the day. GLD couldn't close above the 50% time and price FIB (dotted blue line) and SLV closed below old resistance from the 12/11/21 top.
I'm seeing continued short-term strength in equities and continued strength in the Australian dollar, these things make me pause at entering here. Even if GLD does go straight up from here so will the Aus$, the dollar conversion will be working against me so I'll wait.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

An ouchie recent few days for Gold.

London selling it down again. 

It may fall further. 




gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> An ouchie recent few days for Gold.
> 
> London selling it down again.
> 
> It may fall further.
> 
> View attachment 139348
> 
> 
> gg




I think it’s the war premium coming off. Was at least $100 baked in. Hoping it holds above $1900-1850 to consolidate after the break up. Conditions making things pretty volatile atm. Hopefully it doesn’t get worse.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I think it’s the war premium coming off. Was at least $100 baked in. Hoping it holds above $1900-1850 to consolidate after the break up. Conditions making things pretty volatile atm. Hopefully it doesn’t get worse.



My guess would be that Gold will drift back down to $USD1800 when with our appreciating AUD it will be quite tasty again. 

POO and POI will go up, I suspect, and Gold won't be a goer gain until they stabilise at new highs for the last 12mo. 

And to paraphrase those on The Spectrum who say on other forums, and it is creeping in here DDYOR,  "Don't Do Your Own Research" 

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My guess would be that Gold will drift back down to $USD1800 when with our appreciating AUD it will be quite tasty again.
> 
> POO and POI will go up, I suspect, and Gold won't be a goer gain until they stabilise at new highs for the last 12mo.
> 
> And to paraphrase those on The Spectrum who say on other forums, and it is creeping in here DDYOR,  "Don't Do Your Own Research"
> 
> gg



The 4 month trend is still positive and TSI is heading north again.  
TSI seldom stays under "0" for long when the short term trend is positive:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> The 4 month trend is still positive and TSI is heading north again.
> TSI seldom stays under "0" for long when the short term trend is positive:
> View attachment 139353



Thanks @rederob .

I don't use the TSI and had to look it up. So it's used similar to an RSI , is that correct, diverging from consolidating price ? 

Can you throw a 6 mo chart of gold up with a TSI when you get a chance please.

DDYOR. in fact DEDYOR and EYG. 

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @rederob .
> 
> I don't use the TSI and had to look it up. So it's used similar to an RSI , is that correct, diverging from consolidating price ?
> 
> Can you throw a 6 mo chart of gold up with a TSI when you get a chance please.
> 
> DDYOR. in fact DEDYOR and EYG.
> 
> gg



Here's the 6 month trend on a 4 hourly chart:


I prefer to use a *TSI *"signal" length of a 50 period EMA (red line) as I find it a better/cleaner indicator of confirmation (ie where lines cross) of a changing trend.
Currently POG is oversold with a favourable, albeit weak, uptrend.
Pricewise it its close to its median, with immediate downward to sideways more probable.
My tea leaf reading of the chart suggests a resumption of uptrend by week's end.


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD is still holding between the 50% time&price FIB and the 177-179 support zone, rejecting each when the price gets near. To me it looks to be in a holding pattern, I'm waiting for a break either way with a some volume coming in;




Sometimes in order to see a market more clearly I will step back a bit and take a fresh look at the bigger picture. If we look at a three day chart of GLD it's easy to see the market has come down and paused at the support zone;


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> GLD is still holding between the 50% time&price FIB and the 177-179 support zone, rejecting each when the price gets near. To me it looks to be in a holding pattern, I'm waiting for a break either way with a some volume coming in;
> 
> View attachment 139373
> 
> 
> Sometimes in order to see a market more clearly I will step back a bit and take a fresh look at the bigger picture. If we look at a three day chart of GLD it's easy to see the market has come down and paused at the support zone;
> 
> View attachment 139374




Looks like a C&H could possibly be going to form on this chart on the long term C&H which is interesting.


----------



## Ann

Sean K said:


> Looks like a C&H could possibly be going to form on this chart on the long term C&H which is interesting.



Many years ago, a very wise trader named Mazda6 told me to be cautious of cups with handles, they often break off! I never forget good advice, or who gave it to me.

I would be a bit cautious this may fall a tad below a handle percentage with such a massive volume spike at the high point. I would expect far more downside before we see a rise, perhaps even below the 200dmas? I don't know but I am waiting for gold to retest the 200mas before entering. May just be me and I am often wrong.


----------



## Sean K

Ann said:


> Many years ago, a very wise trader named Mazda6 told me to be cautious of cups with handles, they often break off! I never forget good advice, or who gave it to me.
> 
> I would be a bit cautious this may fall a tad below a handle percentage with such a massive volume spike at the high point. I would expect far more downside before we see a rise, perhaps even below the 200dmas? I don't know but I am waiting for gold to retest the 200mas before entering. May just be me and I am often wrong.
> 
> View attachment 139391




I‘m extremely cautious about any TA. It’s only good till it fails which could be the majority of the time. It’s recognising failure and managing exits that’s probably more important. I’m **** at both.

(I‘m not sure why schit gets buffed out Joe. That’s not a swear word these days is it?)


----------



## Ann

Sean K said:


> I‘m extremely cautious about any TA. It’s only good till it fails which could be the majority of the time. It’s recognising failure and managing exits that’s probably more important. I’m **** at both.
> 
> (I‘m not sure why schit gets buffed out Joe. That’s not a swear word these days is it?)




Yeah, TA is great until it isn't, much like fundamentals which are fabulous until TA is better!


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> My tea leaf reading of the chart suggests a resumption of uptrend by week's end.



Must have been *green* tea!


Immediate trend suggests a bit of weakening over coming hours, but overall bullish going forward.


----------



## ducati916

Gold and Silver are THE most manipulated markets in the world. TA is almost worthless as a way to really understand these markets.

So this is JPM moving from SLV to their vault 38M ounces in preparation for settlement of delivery:




This is the OI at 158,000 contracts:





Each contract is 5000oz.

Now many will close, net out, roll forward. However, those that stand for delivery cannot exceed that 38M oz without (a) defaulting or (b) JPM shifting more physical.

The March contract in gold had all manner of shenanigans going on. There was a 'technical' default that JPM managed to hide with the aid of BAC.

JPM have been fined billions of dollars for 'painting the tape' and outright manipulations.

The game blows up when they can no longer meet the demand for physical, which is growing daily.

Very bullish gold/silver.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ducati916 said:


> Gold and Silver are THE most manipulated markets in the world. TA is almost worthless as a way to really understand these markets.
> 
> So this is JPM moving from SLV to their vault 38M ounces in preparation for settlement of delivery:
> 
> View attachment 139428
> 
> 
> This is the OI at 158,000 contracts:
> 
> View attachment 139429
> 
> 
> 
> Each contract is 5000oz.
> 
> Now many will close, net out, roll forward. However, those that stand for delivery cannot exceed that 38M oz without (a) defaulting or (b) JPM shifting more physical.
> 
> The March contract in gold had all manner of shenanigans going on. There was a 'technical' default that JPM managed to hide with the aid of BAC.
> 
> JPM have been fined billions of dollars for 'painting the tape' and outright manipulations.
> 
> The game blows up when they can no longer meet the demand for physical, which is growing daily.
> 
> Very bullish gold/silver.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Thanks duc. 

A welcome wake up call. 

I’m greedy and waiting for POG to get closer to $AUD2500 but may grab above that. 

I still am amazed at near daily sell off in Londongrad whether POG rising or falling. 




Any reason and/or way of profit from this living in Australia?

gg


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Gold and Silver are THE most manipulated markets in the world. TA is almost worthless as a way to really understand these markets.



All their manipulation does is is lead to chart outliers.
Between these outlying prices are many other actors who are driving an overall trend.
JPM for example has no influence on bond rates, and can only react in anticipation of or after a change.  Other actors are in the same boat.
*Central banks* are are also big players in POG's manipulation.

While TA doesn't explain *ANY *market, it's still a handy tool for us mug punters.  All the fundamentals tell us is who, where and how much gold is being produced, and who is buying it; and that's not a great deal of help... unless there is an unambiguous picture of supply and demand.  Wherein lies the problem.  Unlike every other metal mined, most gold is kept as is and locked away.  It has to maintain its role as a store of value, otherwise mining it serves just a few practical purposes.


----------



## wayneL

For what it's worth my opinion on technical analysis as someone who has used for nearly 20 years.

As a tool for actually predicting price movements, nearly useless.

As a tool for creating trading boundaries, risk/reward and eexpectany scenarios; useful.

I'll be honest and admit that I pretty much suck at fundamental analysis and that has a lot to do with my individual psychology with regards to how things are valued. A lot of valuations just don't damn well make sense to me. (Apart from what I call minimum valuations in the commodity markets which has served me very well)

But.... It is this which makes me both a successful punter on the horses and a successful technical analysis. I don't have to understand anything except expectancy... 

As far as the precious metals markets are concerned though, it's like buying real estate. Forget technical analysis and just keep buying at value.

IMVHO


----------



## DaveTrade

wayneL said:


> As far as the precious metals markets are concerned though, it's like buying real estate. Forget technical analysis and just keep buying at value.



I think that this is a good place to buy GLD;


----------



## wayneL

DaveTrade said:


> I think that this is a good place to buy GLD;
> View attachment 139449



I don't disagree and am continuing to add small parcels from time to time.

My core position was at a little bit over $1,200, but haven't really figured out what the new base value is for gold.

Maybe somewhere around $1,500 and if it gets turned around there I'm checking all my dry powder in and buying with my ears back.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> Immediate trend suggests a bit of weakening over coming hours, but overall bullish going forward.



And today the immediate action suggests a slight reversal of the short-term downtrend, after a rise of 1% overnight: 


We have lost a bit of the recent price volatility, and again reverted to the "stairs up" pattern that has characterised POG's bull run in recent years - a bit like Snakes and Ladders.


----------



## Cam019

Cam019 said:


> Each to their own GG. But, have a look at the USD/JPY vs XAU/USD. I don't know about you, but I see a strong negative correlation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Plus, I'm bullish on the USD/JPY. So either the USD/JPY and XAU/USD are going to move out of their inverse correlation into lockstep for the first time in well.. forever, *or* in my opinion their correlation will hold and we will see weakness in the XAU/USD.
> 
> Also take a look at the Yen Futures vs. the USD/JPY. Almost a -1.0 correlation here and nothing looks bullish in regards to the Yen Futs.
> 
> *Bullish USD/JPY. Bearish Yen Futs and XAU/USD.*




I have been reading this thread and there is so much confusion (at least for me) regarding everything that is going on regarding economic and geopolitical uncertainty, market manipulation, etc, etc.

When really, all your answers are in the charts.

In a previous post which I have quoted above I said I was:



Cam019 said:


> Bullish USD/JPY. Bearish Yen Futs and XAU/USD.




*USD/JPY






Yen Futures






XAU/USD*






Now why say all this?

Is it because I'm Harry Potter and I can predict every market move. No.
Is it because I think I'm better than anyone else. No.
Is it because it's a public holiday where I am and I don't have to go to work this morning. No.

I have simply learnt so much from this website over the last 7-8 years from so many wonderful people willing to share their experiences and their trading - and now I'm sharing mine.

I used to think I had to be across a markets fundamentals, indicators, global macro expectations, what day of the week it was, what treats my dogs wanted for the day - basically all this stuff that doesn't even matter for the purpose of profiting from financial markets.

All that information, all the fear and greed, all the emotions of market participants, all the expectations of the composite man are already built into one thing - *price.*

In the words of @Modest - It's in the chart.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I reckon the poms in Londongrad will sell it off this evening. 

I finally realised why G gets sold off there most days. 

The Russian Oligarchs own the markets there and they are selling in to any strength. 

gg


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD hit the 183-183.5 resistance zone and backed off but it's holding above 50% FIB line so I'm still bullish. It will need some volume coming in to push through the resistance zone. The next level of interest above that is the gap around 187.5 (unmarked on the chart).


----------



## Sean K

Looks like some pretty good support formed here.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I reckon Gold will be at $AUD2500 early this week, if not this evening when the Pomigarchs sell it off in Londongrad. 




gg


----------



## rederob

Volatility remains high, and that was the correction we had to have:


Support is around $1870, so lots of toe space to fill before a bullish trend resumption.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> Volatility remains high, and that was the correction we had to have:
> View attachment 139623
> 
> Support is around $1870, so lots of toe space to fill before a bullish trend resumption.




I would like to think that you are correct. 

Unfortunately my gut tells me it will be a 1-2-3 correction with 1=3.

Which brings us down to $USD1800 and an excellent entry point. 

gg


----------



## wayneL

I reckon the heathens at JP Morgan push it down further.

They play their game, we play our game.


----------



## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> I reckon the heathens at JP Morgan push it down further.
> 
> They play their game, we play our game.



But i see that as an opportunity to get a bit more at each deadline they manipulate.
Think about it: they push billions to lower the prices artificially: just say thanks for the subsidy 😊


----------



## ducati916

wayneL said:


> I reckon the heathens at JP Morgan push it down further.
> 
> They play their game, we play our game.




They just can't keep it down for any length of time.




The amount of paper gold they use is exposing them to serious losses if they lose control of it.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> They just can't keep it down for any length of time.



Because as Sir Garpal says, there are really good buying opportunities on the dips.  Imagine anyone a few years back saying that $1800/oz was a good buying opportunity.  Men with white coats would help you into one that was armless and drug you out of such delusions!

I am looking forward to the day where alchemists reign supreme, and we all express delight as paper turns into gold. It will surely be magic.


----------



## ducati916

Taking a big picture viewpoint:

The environment that we are in currently is a structural and secular inflation. The last period that mimics this is the 1970's.




The powers that be tried to fight it, causing fluctuating rates of inflation.

Gold followed those fluctuations:





Compare that with our more recent travels to a highly inflationary environment:




jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

ducati916 said:


> They just can't keep it down for any length of time.



Agree that the big picture looks good but right at this moment GLD is going down, but the question is, how far? Last night GLD has reacted to the 177-179 support zone, closing up for the session but I don't think it's going straight up from here. I'll looking for confirmation of a turn back up.




In this next chart I'm doing a measured move type of analysis because I like to do this type of thing and then compare what the market is actually doing which gives another indication of the strength of the market.


----------



## Iron Triangle

The AU debt roughy 1.5 trillion &  US debt is 32 trillion , interest rates cannot go up much despite all the talk as the debt will be impossible to repay, this means inflation will keep rising and rising so how is it that gold is dropping in price ? i bought in @ $2663 an ounce thinking it would go to $3500 this year.


----------



## Sean K

Iron Triangle said:


> The AU debt roughy 1.5 trillion &  US debt is 32 trillion , interest rates cannot go up much despite all the talk as the debt will be impossible to repay, this means inflation will keep rising and rising so how is it that gold is dropping in price ? i bought in @ $2663 an ounce thinking it would go to $3500 this year.




Yes, seems like it's just a matter of when not if. 

JP Morgan spoofing hard.


----------



## ducati916

DaveTrade said:


> Agree that the big picture looks good but right at this moment GLD is going down, but the question is, how far? Last night GLD has reacted to the 177-179 support zone, closing up for the session but I don't think it's going straight up from here. I'll looking for confirmation of a turn back up.
> 
> View attachment 139691
> 
> 
> In this next chart I'm doing a measured move type of analysis because I like to do this type of thing and then compare what the market is actually doing which gives another indication of the strength of the market.
> View attachment 139693




Not that far. With Mr Putin, from tomorrow, placing a 5000 Ruble per 1gram bid under gold, as the exchange rate adjusts, any attacks on gold will create an arbitrage opportunity to buy gold and sell for rubles.

So historically:




At 60 Rubles:$US gold is valued at +/- $2,600, which would be arbitraged if price was lower. With a 'currency' pegged to gold, we have for the first time in 50yrs+ an ability to calculate an objective price.

jog on
duc


----------



## Ann

ducati916 said:


> Not that far. With Mr Putin, from tomorrow, placing a 5000 Ruble per 1gram bid under gold, as the exchange rate adjusts, any attacks on gold will create an arbitrage opportunity to buy gold and sell for rubles.



Dumb question, but could the Rouble be sanctioned by the West in some way to restrict its use?


----------



## Sean K

We've been saying this for months.


----------



## ducati916

Ann said:


> Dumb question, but could the Rouble be sanctioned by the West in some way to restrict its use?




That happened virtually from day one.

The Russian response, is essentially a (now) gold backed currency. The Americans have ceded reserve currency status. The petro-dollar is all but dead. As soon as the Arabs move to a petro-yuan it is dead and with it the American empire.

This new East/West confrontation will look very different to the last one.

America will need to revalue the dollar and peg it to gold very soon (within probably 12 - 18 mths) or suffer potentially a hyper-inflation and currency collapse. 

Whatever the propaganda says, the West is losing this one badly atm.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Before everyone gets too far ahead of themselves Russia has not and will not return the Ruble to the Gold Standard.

It has merely on March 4th abolished the VAT on gold purchases which was previously 20% enabling Russians to more easily convert their Rubles in to Gold rather than other currencies. 

So this supposed rumoured influence by Russia on the POG by tying the Ruble to the POG is all very well if you are Russian living in Russia. 

It will make little difference outside Russia and the POG will continue to trade on Russian/Ukranian and other news, on inventories and production and a host of other matters both real and imaginary. 

It will primarily trade on greed and fear.   

An example would be a European who has received a demand from Russia to pay for gas on Friday in Rubles. Their contracts are in fixed currencies other than rubles. Petrodollars. 

The real game is an attempt by Russia to be paid in rubles and this amateurish hogwash of rumour as to the ruble on the gold standard is just that, hogwash.

Any country who would accede to tying it's imports to a dodgy currency tied in a dodgy way to Gold would be asking to be double crossed at some time in the future. 

gg


----------



## divs4ever

Ann said:


> Dumb question, but could the Rouble be sanctioned by the West in some way to restrict its use?



yes , but those who might be  dealing in Roubles will mostly be on the 'naughty boy' list  already  (  the 'unfriendly nations '  are already allegedly boycotting most things Russian ) , and i bet Russia will be happy  to accept yuan and rupees ( and currencies from other trusted  trading partners )

in theory  , this is  only a device to troll EU and US patsies  , giving them an option to pay they will be uncomfortable accepting 

 ( China and Russia already  have currency/good swap agreements in place for years  , the worst they can do financially is sanction China more heavily , risking India forming very close ties with Russia and China )

 it wasn't that long back the world had an 'Iron Curtain ' and a  'Bamboo Curtain '  such things could return


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> We've been saying this for months.




 well i have been cautiously nibbling away at gold stocks for about a year  ( building  on positions entered  into during the 20113 to 2015 period ) BUT not forgetting iron miners  either


----------



## ducati916

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Before everyone gets too far ahead of themselves Russia has not and will not return the Ruble to the Gold Standard.
> 
> It has merely on March 4th abolished the VAT on gold purchases which was previously 20% enabling Russians to more easily convert their Rubles in to Gold rather than other currencies.
> 
> So this supposed rumoured influence by Russia on the POG by tying the Ruble to the POG is all very well if you are Russian living in Russia.
> 
> It will make little difference outside Russia and the POG will continue to trade on Russian/Ukranian and other news, on inventories and production and a host of other matters both real and imaginary.
> 
> It will primarily trade on greed and fear.
> 
> An example would be a European who has received a demand from Russia to pay for gas on Friday in Rubles. Their contracts are in fixed currencies other than rubles. Petrodollars.
> 
> The real game is an attempt by Russia to be paid in rubles and this amateurish hogwash of rumour as to the ruble on the gold standard is just that, hogwash.
> 
> Any country who would accede to tying it's imports to a dodgy currency tied in a dodgy way to Gold would be asking to be double crossed at some time in the future.
> 
> gg




Mr GG,

I disagree. Russia has essentially backed their currency with gold.













						Russia sets fixed gold price as it restarts official bullion purchases
					





					www.kitco.com
				




Look at what happened to the Ruble after the release:




The Ruble caught fire as against DXY.

Why?

Because the Ruble is now essentially backed by gold.

Now depending on where the Ruble trades, it can potentially set up an arbitrage in Ruble/Gold. This potential arbitrage puts a floor under the price of gold.

Even worse:




Mr Putin has the West over a barrel.

The real war is not the hot war, it is the currency war. Russia, China, India and probably most of the world are at war with the petro-dollar, which is now dying on its feet. Once the Arabs re-price oil in Yuan, it is over.

US deficit spending has relied on the petro-dollar since 1971. Without it, US deficit spending will cause a hyper-inflation in the US, killing their currency. 

If the US raise the FFR to control inflation, it needs to be 10% +/-. It is what, currently 25bps?




Russia is well aware that the US has overplayed their hand and due to the debt levels, made itself vulnerable, unable to actually raise the FFR even to 2% without crashing the economy.

At 25bps, the Yield Curve inverted on the 2s/10s yesterday, briefly. The 5s/10s inverted last week.




Once the 'West's' sanctions (LOL) start to bite, Europe will starve to death if they don't freeze first. The only thing that they can hope for is an early and warm summer.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

ducati916 said:


> Mr GG,
> 
> I disagree. Russia has essentially backed their currency with gold.
> 
> View attachment 139717
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia sets fixed gold price as it restarts official bullion purchases
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kitco.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Look at what happened to the Ruble after the release:
> 
> View attachment 139716
> 
> 
> The Ruble caught fire as against DXY.
> 
> Why?
> 
> Because the Ruble is now essentially backed by gold.
> 
> Now depending on where the Ruble trades, it can potentially set up an arbitrage in Ruble/Gold. This potential arbitrage puts a floor under the price of gold.
> 
> Even worse:
> 
> View attachment 139718
> 
> 
> Mr Putin has the West over a barrel.
> 
> The real war is not the hot war, it is the currency war. Russia, China, India and probably most of the world are at war with the petro-dollar, which is now dying on its feet. Once the Arabs re-price oil in Yuan, it is over.
> 
> US deficit spending has relied on the petro-dollar since 1971. Without it, US deficit spending will cause a hyper-inflation in the US, killing their currency.
> 
> If the US raise the FFR to control inflation, it needs to be 10% +/-. It is what, currently 25bps?
> 
> View attachment 139719
> 
> 
> Russia is well aware that the US has overplayed their hand and due to the debt levels, made itself vulnerable, unable to actually raise the FFR even to 2% without crashing the economy.
> 
> At 25bps, the Yield Curve inverted on the 2s/10s yesterday, briefly. The 5s/10s inverted last week.
> 
> View attachment 139720
> 
> 
> Once the 'West's' sanctions (LOL) start to bite, Europe will starve to death if they don't freeze first. The only thing that they can hope for is an early and warm summer.
> 
> jog on
> duc



This says it all:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ruble-edges-closer-clawing-back-154538090.html


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ducati916 said:


> Mr GG,
> 
> I disagree. Russia has essentially backed their currency with gold.
> 
> View attachment 139717
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia sets fixed gold price as it restarts official bullion purchases
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kitco.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Look at what happened to the Ruble after the release:
> 
> View attachment 139716
> 
> 
> The Ruble caught fire as against DXY.
> 
> Why?
> 
> Because the Ruble is now essentially backed by gold.
> 
> Now depending on where the Ruble trades, it can potentially set up an arbitrage in Ruble/Gold. This potential arbitrage puts a floor under the price of gold.
> 
> Even worse:
> 
> View attachment 139718
> 
> 
> Mr Putin has the West over a barrel.
> 
> The real war is not the hot war, it is the currency war. Russia, China, India and probably most of the world are at war with the petro-dollar, which is now dying on its feet. Once the Arabs re-price oil in Yuan, it is over.
> 
> US deficit spending has relied on the petro-dollar since 1971. Without it, US deficit spending will cause a hyper-inflation in the US, killing their currency.
> 
> If the US raise the FFR to control inflation, it needs to be 10% +/-. It is what, currently 25bps?
> 
> View attachment 139719
> 
> 
> Russia is well aware that the US has overplayed their hand and due to the debt levels, made itself vulnerable, unable to actually raise the FFR even to 2% without crashing the economy.
> 
> At 25bps, the Yield Curve inverted on the 2s/10s yesterday, briefly. The 5s/10s inverted last week.
> 
> View attachment 139720
> 
> 
> Once the 'West's' sanctions (LOL) start to bite, Europe will starve to death if they don't freeze first. The only thing that they can hope for is an early and warm summer.
> 
> jog on
> duc



I must admit I'm bullish on gold again.

I believe Putin has made a huge miscalculation on top of that he made on Ukraine.

He has underestimated the move from neutral to committed to NATO of many countries in Europe and the inevitability of the spread of his war beyond Ukraine and the mobilisation of the Nordic States, Poland and even Germany against his attempt at hegemony.

Also the aggressive states in Europe have moved to warry and are making adjustments to dealing with energy needs. 

He will be only able to sell his gold to vassal states, but my gut tells me he won't, as it will be the last he sells before Euros and Dollars in his reserves.

His Ruble will be worth as much as an Afghan Pul no matter how much he bleats about it being tied to Gold as he will have to keep his reserves to maintain his Ruble.

Gold is held, until it has to be sold. 

gg


----------



## Ann

ducati916 said:


> That happened virtually from day one.
> 
> The Russian response, is essentially a (now) gold backed currency. The Americans have ceded reserve currency status. The petro-dollar is all but dead. As soon as the Arabs move to a petro-yuan it is dead and with it the American empire.
> 
> This new East/West confrontation will look very different to the last one.
> 
> America will need to revalue the dollar and peg it to gold very soon (within probably 12 - 18 mths) or suffer potentially a hyper-inflation and currency collapse.
> 
> Whatever the propaganda says, the West is losing this one badly atm.





 OMG! That just blew my mind, all I can say is thank goodness I am not a fundamental investor attempting to get to grips with all of that and all its implications. Thank you duc, you are truly amazing!

Edit: Ray Dalio has been saying the US is a failing empire for some time.


----------



## ducati916

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I'm bullish on gold again.
> 
> I believe Putin has made a huge miscalculation on top of that he made on Ukraine.
> 
> He has underestimated the move from neutral to committed to NATO of many countries in Europe and the inevitability of the spread of his war beyond Ukraine and the mobilisation of the Nordic States, Poland and even Germany against his attempt at hegemony.
> 
> Also the aggressive states in Europe have moved to warry and are making adjustments to dealing with energy needs.
> 
> He will be only able to sell his gold to vassal states, but my gut tells me he won't, as it will be the last he sells before Euros and Dollars in his reserves.
> 
> His Ruble will be worth as much as an Afghan Pul no matter how much he bleats about it being tied to Gold as he will have to keep his reserves to maintain his Ruble.
> 
> Gold is held, until it has to be sold.
> 
> gg





Mr GG,

Correct, Mr Putin will not seek to sell gold. He will seek to accumulate gold via selling gas, oil, etc for Rubles and buying gold with the Rubles. China has also been accumulating gold for decades. They have at best guestimates in excess of 20,000 tonnes.

Mr Putin has a female economist, whose name I forget, however she is head & shoulders smarter than her western counterparts. This (I'm pretty sure) was her plan. This has been planned and coordinated with China for years.

NATO is toothless. In a ground war, they would probably win. But there are 2 major risks: (i) China commits ground troops via Taiwan or mainland Europe or (ii) Mr Putin goes nuclear.

There have been numerous leaks re. US military strength as far as nuclear weapons go. The gist seems to be that the US still operates 1970's nuclear capability. The Russians meanwhile have been upgrading constantly, vis-a-vis hypersonic missiles etc. IF that is true, the outcome may no longer be MAD, but an outright Russian victory.

Which rather explains the milquetoast NATO military response to date.

But as I said before, the hot war is really (for Russia) a proxy war for the currency war, which via commodities, collapses fiat. The tremendous lack of investment, due to low and suppressed prices via COMEX, LBMA, LME, etc, has created shortages everywhere. Those shortages have now created the perfect storm, accelerated by a hot war, to an already hot inflation, due to reckless spending by Western governments to break dollar hegemony via the petro-dollar.

The West, due to the debt levels, $300 Trillion and counting, cannot survive their own sanctions. The sanctions accelerate the inflationary pressures which will collapse all fiat currencies. This is why China, India, Russia have been stockpiling gold for decades. Their governments are de-dollarising and have been planning to do so for a long time. This war has accelerated this process by 10yrs+. 

The war is over. Mr Putin has already won.

What we in the west should be concerned with is how do we individually or collectively, avoid being sucked down by our governments' failures?

There are really only 2 options: (i) physical gold/silver or (ii) crypto. I personally wouldn't touch crypto. That leaves physical gold/silver. Playing the miners is speculation, particularly if they are nationalised down the road. Even physical ETF's (PHYS, PSLV) could have their assets frozen/seized/stolen.

*Have you noticed the strength in the Ruble today? On an arbitrage basis, gold is now $2050.

There is a liquidity crisis in the Bond market already from that 25bps raise. LOL. We are probably 1 raise of 25bps from an all out fail in the Bond market which will necessitate another QE programme from the Fed. 

Combine that with Russia and we're looking at 15% CPI by the end of the year. A 15% CPI will kill the stock market. Look for a 50% decline +.


jog on
duc


----------



## Craton

ducati916 said:


> Mr GG,
> <snip>
> Mr Putin has a female economist, whose name I forget, however she is head & shoulders smarter than her western counterparts. This (I'm pretty sure) was her plan. This has been planned and coordinated with China for years.
> <snip>
> jog on
> duc



Female economist you refer to I believe is: *Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina*

Held in high regard and head of the Central Bank of Russia. Certainly an interesting figure.

I read that she wanted to resign over the "special military ops" but Putin refused and has nominated a third term for her.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ducati916 said:


> Mr GG,
> 
> Correct, Mr Putin will not seek to sell gold. He will seek to accumulate gold via selling gas, oil, etc for Rubles and buying gold with the Rubles. China has also been accumulating gold for decades. They have at best guestimates in excess of 20,000 tonnes.
> 
> Mr Putin has a female economist, whose name I forget, however she is head & shoulders smarter than her western counterparts. This (I'm pretty sure) was her plan. This has been planned and coordinated with China for years.
> 
> NATO is toothless. In a ground war, they would probably win. But there are 2 major risks: (i) China commits ground troops via Taiwan or mainland Europe or (ii) Mr Putin goes nuclear.
> 
> There have been numerous leaks re. US military strength as far as nuclear weapons go. The gist seems to be that the US still operates 1970's nuclear capability. The Russians meanwhile have been upgrading constantly, vis-a-vis hypersonic missiles etc. IF that is true, the outcome may no longer be MAD, but an outright Russian victory.
> 
> Which rather explains the milquetoast NATO military response to date.
> 
> But as I said before, the hot war is really (for Russia) a proxy war for the currency war, which via commodities, collapses fiat. The tremendous lack of investment, due to low and suppressed prices via COMEX, LBMA, LME, etc, has created shortages everywhere. Those shortages have now created the perfect storm, accelerated by a hot war, to an already hot inflation, due to reckless spending by Western governments to break dollar hegemony via the petro-dollar.
> 
> The West, due to the debt levels, $300 Trillion and counting, cannot survive their own sanctions. The sanctions accelerate the inflationary pressures which will collapse all fiat currencies. This is why China, India, Russia have been stockpiling gold for decades. Their governments are de-dollarising and have been planning to do so for a long time. This war has accelerated this process by 10yrs+.
> 
> The war is over. Mr Putin has already won.
> 
> What we in the west should be concerned with is how do we individually or collectively, avoid being sucked down by our governments' failures?
> 
> There are really only 2 options: (i) physical gold/silver or (ii) crypto. I personally wouldn't touch crypto. That leaves physical gold/silver. Playing the miners is speculation, particularly if they are nationalised down the road. Even physical ETF's (PHYS, PSLV) could have their assets frozen/seized/stolen.
> 
> *Have you noticed the strength in the Ruble today? On an arbitrage basis, gold is now $2050.
> 
> There is a liquidity crisis in the Bond market already from that 25bps raise. LOL. We are probably 1 raise of 25bps from an all out fail in the Bond market which will necessitate another QE programme from the Fed.
> 
> Combine that with Russia and we're looking at 15% CPI by the end of the year. A 15% CPI will kill the stock market. Look for a 50% decline +.
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc



Thanks duc,

While seeing much logic in all of your points your conclusions imo are wrong. 

To see the War in Ukraine purely through the lens of a larger economic war between the USA and Russia/China is wrong. 

The Russians and Chinese do not particularly like each other and the main thing binding them together is a hatred of the economic hegemony of the United States. 

Following on Trump's presidency this dislike and mistrust of the USA has spread to Europe though not as fixedly.

This mutual aversion between China and Russia is visceral where they have a border along the Amur River, which has been a point of conflict involving the Mongolian and ethnic populations of that region. The enemy of my enemy is my friend works well.

It is also racial as the Chinese are better business people than the Russians, which causes further angst to Putin.

They will use each other as countries do because it is in their interest.

India is the same, using Putin's cut rate oil since March when it's imports prior were closer to zero than negligible. 

War is not worked out on a spreadsheet. This war is about mediaeval issues and economics will trot along before, beside and after it is sorted. 

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

duc and GG I congratulate you both, firstly on prosecuting well thought out arguments, and secondly in the manner of the discussion.
No ad hominem attacks, no bagging out the sources, and both respectful.
may there be more of it.
Mick


----------



## ducati916

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks duc,
> 
> While seeing much logic in all of your points your conclusions imo are wrong.
> 
> To see the War in Ukraine purely through the lens of a larger economic war between the USA and Russia/China is wrong.
> 
> The Russians and Chinese do not particularly like each other and the main thing binding them together is a hatred of the economic hegemony of the United States.
> 
> Following on Trump's presidency this dislike and mistrust of the USA has spread to Europe though not as fixedly.
> 
> This mutual aversion between China and Russia is visceral where they have a border along the Amur River, which has been a point of conflict involving the Mongolian and ethnic populations of that region. The enemy of my enemy is my friend works well.
> 
> It is also racial as the Chinese are better business people than the Russians, which causes further angst to Putin.
> 
> They will use each other as countries do because it is in their interest.
> 
> India is the same, using Putin's cut rate oil since March when it's imports prior were closer to zero than negligible.
> 
> War is not worked out on a spreadsheet. This war is about mediaeval issues and economics will trot along before, beside and after it is sorted.
> 
> gg





Mr GG,

I would agree that self-interest, that old capitalistic saw, is driving Russia and China together to challenge DXY hegemony via amongst many other factors, the petro-dollar.

It has been the presence of DXY hegemony since Bretton Woods in 1944 and the closing of the gold window in Aug. 1971 by Nixon, that has allowed the US to essentially fund US deficits with the rest of the world's savings.

With a debt to GDP ratio now exceeding 120%, the US is unable to prosecute a war with a commodity super-power, particularly when they at the same time antagonise the productive power of China, having off-shored the US industrial base over the last 30yrs.

The 'international community':




So returning to the issue of the hot war:

(i) Nuclear war is a bad option for everyone;
(ii) It is highly unlikely that Russia would seek to expand military ops. into Europe proper and force NATO to act.

Given that the Russians have by and large circumvented 'sanctions', those sanctions were foreseen. The 'nuclear' threat was more to discourage NATO involvement in the Ukraine, which has to date worked. Both supported by China.

So the Ukraine, looks likely to fall to Russia given time, without NATO troops on the ground.

The Ukraine is a tactical move. The strategic move is to destroy DXY hegemony. DXY hegemony, as stated, has allowed the US to deficit spend the savings of the world.

I'm not sure if Sun Tzu ever said it, but he probably did: you attack your enemies where they are weak, not where they are strong.

The US is still the pre-eminent military power, despite their Woke military and other nonsense. Financially, due to their debt, rising inflation and inept Central Bank, they are very, very weak financially. That is their great weakness. That is exactly what Russia & China are attacking and they will win.

Central to that strategy is a gold backed currency. Gold is the key to break the US. When you can no longer 'print paper' to exchange for hard assets, with which to manufacture goods, you have to live within your means. The power shifts from inside bank money to outside commodity money, which is the road Russia is forcing the US down currently. Gold remains money real.




With the loss of DXY hegemony, the US will fade and the East will rise. Of course, eventually they will debase the currency and fade themselves for the next in line to take their place.

Attached is the Congressional Report on Russian nuclear capability.

Some highlights:





The full report is below.

jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD is rejecting support and rejecting resistance at the moment, moving in a sideways range with lower volume. This can be seen more clearly looking at a candlestick chart;



An even clearer view can be seen using a three day chart;


----------



## ducati916

DaveTrade said:


> GLD is rejecting support and rejecting resistance at the moment, moving in a sideways range with lower volume. This can be seen more clearly looking at a candlestick chart;
> View attachment 139815
> 
> 
> An even clearer view can be seen using a three day chart;
> View attachment 139816





Attached is the 'arbitrage' floor.

This should not be breached.




I guess we'll find out.

jog on
duc


----------



## Ann

Taking the opportunity to post this long term end of the first quarter chart for gold. It still appears to be travelling in a bearish rising wedge pattern. If it breaks down, I am wondering if it will simply re-test the 1780 level or will it seek lower levels? I haven't all of a sudden become bearish about the POG, I am just keeping an eye on the wedge! As ever, interesting to watch.


----------



## DaveTrade

Ann said:


> It still appears to be travelling in a bearish rising wedge pattern.



I'm not sure if that top line of the wedge can be considered valid at this point. I'd like to see another touch of that line.


----------



## qldfrog

While i do charting indirectly via my systems, i believe charting is quasi irrelevant in POG ,as it is happening now:
This is what matters: https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/4b2e0a67d97557a435c355cb37a1d619
Obviously POG vs AUD.. or CAD as commodity currencies does differ a bit but in summary, Biden has just f***ed the USA by destroying the USD, pushing it over the edge.
How can someone be so dumb?
No biden who is just a senile puppet but the power within?
Even short term wise the win is minimal except for screwing Europe
Should a coup tomorrow replace Putin, or peace/ defeat of the russian army happens, it will change zip
The US has committed suicide and Mr Xi is the winner of this century competition.
This is great for this thread as winners' second place is POG.
And Australia could even benefit.


----------



## Ann

DaveTrade said:


> I'm not sure if that top line of the wedge can be considered valid at this point. I'd like to see another touch of that line.



Good man DaveTrade, I had a feeling my line would be questioned by a good chartist and rightly so! Let me crank it up to a closer view for you with candlesticks. However, if you still disagree, I am comfortable with that as it is waving in the breeze a tad, I also would like to see a third touch to really convince me of its strength as a genuine wedge pattern formation.


----------



## DaveTrade

@Ann I'm not sure if I would call myself 'a chartist', I hold the most respect to horizontal lines as these are levels at which traders have bought and sold. I do use sloping trend lines but I like to have multiple touches to draw these lines and even then I don't give sloping trend lines as much weight as price levels or zones. I do like the way that trend lines help to paint pictures of the market, ie what the market is doing. Patterns are useful, after a pattern has formed then it gives some predictability as to where price may go next but this cannot be done until the pattern is fully formed. So in this case, if the market fully forms a rising wedge reaching the end of this pattern then I would be looking for a strong move down out of the pattern which I could measure and mark on the chart for reference.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Ann said:


> Good man DaveTrade, I had a feeling my line would be questioned by a good chartist and rightly so! Let me crank it up to a closer view for you with candlesticks. However, if you still disagree, I am comfortable with that as it is waving in the breeze a tad, I also would like to see a third touch to really convince me of its strength as a genuine wedge pattern formation.
> 
> View attachment 139846





DaveTrade said:


> @Ann I'm not sure if I would call myself 'a chartist', I hold the most respect to horizontal lines as these are levels at which traders have bought and sold. I do use sloping trend lines but I like to have multiple touches to draw these lines and even then I don't give sloping trend lines as much weight as price levels or zones. I do like the way that trend lines help to paint pictures of the market, ie what the market is doing. Patterns are useful, after a pattern has formed then it gives some predictability as to where price may go next but this cannot be done until the pattern is fully formed. So in this case, if the market fully forms a rising wedge reaching the end of this pattern then I would be looking for a strong move down out of the pattern which I could measure and mark on the chart for reference.




Thanks @Ann and @DaveTrade. Good points.

I am primarily a chartist and an opportunist.

I use breakouts from consolidation during what I call easy times. No wars, recovery from financial fubars, extravagant madness etc.

In commodity related stocks and commodities previous long ago consolidation lines are very, very important.

However in actually making the decision to buy or sell during a war or financial catastrophe being nimble is too difficult with charts alone and I keep a close eye on The Wall St. Journal, Financial Times and Australian Financial Review.

Being a Centrist I find the WSJ gives me a financial rag's view of the Right, and the FT and AFR a financial rag's view from the Left. There are no Centrist newspapers. I also use Twitter for up to date info on any wars ( I never post ).

It is difficult being the only Centrist in the world. I am a party of one.

Just my thoughts. In summary in catastrophic times, charting and fundamental are both equally essential.

gg


----------



## Telamelo

Gold price chart update/analysis (from 21:25 onwards)


----------



## signalFollower

Telamelo said:


> Gold price chart update/analysis (from 21:25 onwards)




that's a nice sentiment for my holdings in AAU which itself is still flying under the radar of many, check out a heap of anlysis I've shared over on the company thread if you're interested


----------



## Ann

DaveTrade said:


> Patterns are useful, after a pattern has formed then it gives some predictability as to where price may go next but this cannot be done until the pattern is fully formed. So in this case, if the market fully forms a rising wedge reaching the end of this pattern then I would be looking for a strong move down out of the pattern which I could measure and mark on the chart for reference.



I tend to watch for developing chart shapes and am foolish enough to call them early. Here in July 2012, I called a top to gold suggesting it was a megaphone top, should have actually called it a rising megaphone but I did clarify bearish. Clearly, no one was too keen to accept my suggestion but that is OK I may have been wrong!
Back to 1st July 2012



Garpal Gumnut said:


> However in actually making the decision to buy or sell during a war or financial catastrophe being nimble is too difficult with charts alone and I keep a close eye on The Wall St. Journal, Financial Times and Australian Financial Review.



Too much reading there for a dyslexic GG! I do it 100% with charts.

Here is the ancient gold quarterly chart I posted back in 2012 calling a bearish megaphone top....





Edit: Here is my official call of the megaphone top in 2013

..and where I thought it would find support

I think my calls were reasonable and only derived from what I saw on the chart.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Ann said:


> I tend to watch for developing chart shapes and am foolish enough to call them early. Here in July 2012, I called a top to gold suggesting it was a megaphone top, should have actually called it a rising megaphone but I did clarify bearish. Clearly, no one was too keen to accept my suggestion but that is OK I may have been wrong!
> Back to 1st July 2012
> 
> 
> Too much reading there for a dyslexic GG! I do it 100% with charts.
> 
> Here is the ancient gold quarterly chart I posted back in 2012 calling a bearish megaphone top....
> 
> 
> View attachment 139888
> 
> 
> Edit: Here is my official call of the megaphone top
> 
> ..and where I thought it would find support
> 
> I think my calls were reasonable and only derived from what I saw on the chart.




No worries @Ann 

Whatever works for you ( 4 U ) 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Until this support zone is breached it's going to $2700 ish.


----------



## DaveTrade

Ann said:


> I tend to watch for developing chart shapes and am foolish enough to call them early.



Yes I look for developing patterns as well but I don't like to let myself give them too much weight in my mind at first, as they develop they become more significant for me. I've found that when I call them too early I'm too often wrong. From your writing above it would seem that you feel the same but don't care too much about calling them early anyway. Maybe some time in the future I'll be able to say to you 'good call'.


----------



## signalFollower

this one is quite interesting and IMO worth the 30 minutes watch, covering:

- Ukraine / Russia
- the USD and Interest rates
- Price of Gold
- Copper and the continued greenification of energy



so personally this ticks off a number of aspects with my main gold/silver, copper/gold and gold/copper holding with 3 back to back projects


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The Gold Committee at the Hotel met for the early morning session and drank double rums with full strength coke at the news that Russia has fixed a Ruble/Gold price at $58 per gram. 

This was translated by a Professor of Mathematics present to $1644.30 an oz. 

They immediately had a zoom meeting with Anna Golubova who during a backpacker stint some years ago was a very good barmaid and had some dental work done here in The Ville. She now works for Kitco.

The Gold price immediately spilt at the open as did some drinks to  $USD 1913 but has since recovered quite smartly to $ 1923. 

What a kerfuffle. The markets are twitchy as they usually are during war. 

Onward and upwards would be my thoughts. 

Russia appears at the 1:05 mark on the zoom which Kitco captured for Youtube. For some reason our intoxicants have been edited out. 



gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The Gold Committee at the Hotel met for the early morning session and drank double rums with full strength coke at the news that Russia has fixed a Ruble/Gold price at $58 per gram.
> 
> This was translated by a Professor of Mathematics present to $1644.30 an oz.
> 
> They immediately had a zoom meeting with Anna Golubova who during a backpacker stint some years ago was a very good barmaid and had some dental work done here in The Ville. She now works for Kitco.
> 
> The Gold price immediately spilt at the open as did some drinks to  $USD 1913 but has since recovered quite smartly to $ 1923.
> 
> What a kerfuffle. The markets are twitchy as they usually are during war.
> 
> Onward and upwards would be my thoughts.
> 
> Russia appears at the 1:05 mark on the zoom which Kitco captured for Youtube. For some reason our intoxicants have been edited out.
> 
> 
> 
> gg




With the fascists in Moscow having pinned their POG at $USD1644 this provides a very good target for shorters. They will need to be brave. 




This 5Y chart of the POG shows $1600 was resistance and support between Sept 2019 pre-covid and March 2020 when Covid hit. 

I must say that the price action in March 2020 quite resembles that now. 

So when it is shorted by various Oligarchs, punch drunk vodka addled Muscovites, Global MAfia and Politicians, our own Woligarchs here in the West, UK, USA and Sydney, I anticipate a rush of short covering with a new support at $2020 above the two previous highs. 

So Gold believers such as I, Julius Caesar, Queen Isabella of Spain, and HM QE2 will be all in, should those who are passed had been alive, and ready to make a huge profit. 

Buy above $2020
Buy on a pullback past $1700 

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

The linking of the Russian Rouble has had /will have profound effects on the world market.
From Zero hedge


> *Why is setting a Fixed Price for Gold in Rubles significant?*
> 
> By offering to buy gold from Russian banks at a fixed price of 5000 rubles per gram, the Bank of Russia has both linked the ruble to gold and, since gold trades in US dollars, set a floor price for the ruble in terms of the US dollar.
> 
> We can see this linkage in action since Friday 25 March when the Bank of Russia made the fixed price announcement. The ruble was trading at around 100 to the US dollar at that time, but has since strengthened and is nearing 80 to the US dollar. Why? *Because gold has been trading on international markets at about US$ 62 per gram which is equivalent to (5000 / 62) = about 80.5, and markets and arbitrage traders have now taken note, driving the RUB / USD exchange rate higher.*






> So the ruble now has a floor to the US dollars, in terms of gold. But gold also has a floor, so to speak, because 5000 rubles per gram is 155,500 rubles per troy ounce of gold, and with a RUB / USD floor of about 80, that’s a gold price of around $1940. *And if the Western paper gold markets of LBMA / COMEX try to drive the US dollar gold price lower, they will have to try to weaken the ruble as well or else the paper manipulations will be out in the open.*
> 
> Additionally, with the new gold to ruble linkage, if the ruble continues to strengthen (for example due to demand created by obligatory energy payments in rubles), this will also be reflected in a stronger gold price.
> Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the world’s third largest oil exporter. *We are seeing right now that Putin is demanding that foreign buyers (importers of Russian gas) must pay for this natural gas using rubles. This immediately links the price of natural gas to rubles and (because of the fixed link to gold) to the gold price. So Russian natural gas is now linked via the ruble to gold.*
> 
> The same can now be done with Russian oil. If Russia begins to demand payment for oil exports with rubles, there will be an immediate indirect peg to gold (via the fixed price ruble – gold connection). *Then Russia could begin accepting gold directly in payment for its oil exports. In fact, this can be applied to any commodities, not just oil and natural gas.
> 
> What does this mean for the Price of Gold?*
> 
> By playing both sides of the equation, i.e. linking the ruble to gold and then linking energy payments to the ruble, the Bank of Russia and the Kremlin are fundamentally altering the entire working assumptions of the global trade system while accelerating change in the global monetary system. *This wall of buyers in search of physical gold to pay for real commodities could certainly torpedo and blow up the paper gold markets of the LBMA and COMEX.         *
> 
> The fixed peg between the ruble and gold puts a floor on the RUB / USD rate but also a quasi-floor on the US dollar gold price. But beyond this, the linking of gold to energy payments is the main event. While increased demand for rubles should continue to strengthen the RUB / USD rate and show up as a higher gold price, due to the fixed ruble – gold linkage, *if Russia begins to accept gold directly as a payment for oil, then this would be a new paradigm shift for the gold price as it would link the oil price directly to the gold price.  *
> 
> For example, Russia could start by specifying that it will now accept 1 gram of gold per barrel of oil. It doesn’t have to be 1 gram but would have to be a discounted offer to the current crude benchmark price so as to promote take up, e.g. 1.2 grams per barrel. Buyers would then scramble to buy physical gold to pay for Russian oil exports, which in turn would create huge strains in the paper gold markets of London and New York *where the entire ‘gold price’ discovery is based on synthetic and fractionally-backed cash-settled unallocated ‘gold’ and gold price ‘derivatives.
> What does this mean for the Ruble?*
> 
> Linking the ruble to gold via the Bank of Russia’s fixed price has now put a floor under the RUB/ USD rate, and thereby stabilized and strengthened the ruble. Demanding that natural gas exports are paid for in rubles (and possibly oil and other commodities down the line) will again act as stabilization and support*. If a majority of the international trading system begins accepting these rubles for commodity payments arrangements, this could propel the Russian ruble to becoming a major global currency*. At the same time, any move by Russia to accept direct gold for oil payments will cause more international gold to flow into Russian reserves, which would also strengthen the balance sheet of the Bank of Russia and in turn strengthen the ruble.
> 
> Talk of a formal gold standard for the ruble might be premature, but a gold-backed ruble must be something the Bank of Russia has considered.






> *What does this mean for Other Currencies?*
> 
> The global monetary landscape is changing rapidly and central banks around the world are obviously taking note. Western sanctions such as the freezing of the majority of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves while trying to sanction Russian gold have now made it obvious that property rights on FX reserves held abroad may not be respected, and likewise, that foreign central bank gold held in vault locations such as at the Bank of England and the New York Fed, is not beyond confiscation.
> 
> Other non-Western governments and central banks will therefore be taking a keen interest in Russia linking the ruble to gold and linking commodity export payments to the ruble. In other words, *if Russia begins to accept payment for oil in gold, then other countries may feel the need to follow suit.*
> 
> Look at who, apart from the US, are the world’s largest oil and natural gas producers – Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar. Obviously, all of the BRICS countries and Eurasian countries are also following all of this very closely. If the demise of the US dollar is nearing, all of these countries will want their currencies to be beneficiaries of a new multi-lateral monetary order.
> *What does this mean for the US Dollar?*
> 
> Since 1971, the global reserve status of the US dollar has been underpinned by oil, and the petrodollar era has only been possible due to both the world’s continued use of US dollars to trade oil and the USA’s ability to prevent any competitor to the US dollar.
> 
> But what we are seeing right now looks like the beginning of the end of that 50-year system and the birth of a new gold and commodity backed multi-lateral monetary system. *The freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves has been the trigger. *The giant commodity strong countries of the world such as China and the oil exporting nations may now feel that now is the time to move to a new more equitable monetary system. It’s not a surprise, they have been discussing it for years.
> 
> While it’s still too early to say how the US dollar will be affected, it will come out of this period weaker and less influential than before.
> 
> *What are the Consequences of these Developments?*
> 
> The Bank of Russia’s move to link the ruble to gold and link commodity payments to the ruble is *a paradigm shift that the western media has not really yet been grasped. *As the dominos fall, these events could reverberate in different ways. Increased demand for physical gold. Blowups in the paper gold markets. A revalued gold price. A shift away from the US dollar. Increased bilateral trade in commodities among non-Western counties in currencies other than the US dollar.



China has always been a great hoarder of Gold, so would be more than happy to play the game of destroying the western fiat currencies.
India, the other  country where gold is culturally very significant, did not join the conga line of western countries to condemn Russia, but is not at all friendly with the Chinese, so maybe  having a foot in both camps.
Interesting times.
Mick


----------



## rederob

The price of gold in the short term is impervious to good analysis.:


The rather narrow trading range of recent weeks defies explanation.
That said, POG remains nicely placed in a long term bull market trend.
What we know with near certainty is that pervading global events are unlikely to see POG collapse.


----------



## ducati916

Gold is performing exactly as you would expect given the macro-economic and geopolitical circumstances.





The market is pricing in 9 rate hikes in the FFR:

Which of course has driven the 2s/10s inversion:








So a recession, is on the cards if the Fed ACTUALLY hikes 9 times:




The math is pretty simple. A 4% FFR after 9 hikes = $1.4T in interest payments. A collapse in GDP from the recession decreases tax takes. Even on current GDP tax takes are $3.2T. That is 43% of tax take being paid on interest alone.

That is just the on balance sheet debt. 

If you include the off balance sheet debt:





No way will the Fed be able to raise the FFR to 4%.

Add in the trade deficits:




The whole notion of 4% nominal FFR is farcical.

Summary:

The Fed will maintain the illusion of fighting inflation for as long as possible. Each raise will crush risk assets and accelerate the recession's arrival and the day of the next QE.

Add in the mid-term elections, the political pressure on Mr Powell will be unrelenting. Is he a Paul Volcker? Hardly.

Very bullish on gold/silver.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

ducati916 said:


> Gold is performing exactly as you would expect given the macro-economic and geopolitical circumstances.



I gave you a 👍for effort, but POG as a store of value is not doing what is should given the situation in Ukraine.

POG has for weeks equivocated, and on a medium term basis is trading at the lower end of its trend:



In uncertain times it is unusual for POG to be so rangebound.


----------



## DaveTrade

rederob said:


> In uncertain times it is unusual for POG to be so rangebound.



I put this down to the fact that these are not only uncertain times but they are also very unusual times. There are so many destabilizing things happening in the world, all at the same time.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ducati916 said:


> Gold is performing exactly as you would expect given the macro-economic and geopolitical circumstances.
> 
> View attachment 140002
> View attachment 140003
> 
> 
> The market is pricing in 9 rate hikes in the FFR:
> 
> Which of course has driven the 2s/10s inversion:
> 
> View attachment 140004
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 140005
> 
> 
> So a recession, is on the cards if the Fed ACTUALLY hikes 9 times:
> 
> View attachment 140006
> 
> 
> The math is pretty simple. A 4% FFR after 9 hikes = $1.4T in interest payments. A collapse in GDP from the recession decreases tax takes. Even on current GDP tax takes are $3.2T. That is 43% of tax take being paid on interest alone.
> 
> That is just the on balance sheet debt.
> 
> If you include the off balance sheet debt:
> 
> View attachment 140008
> 
> 
> 
> No way will the Fed be able to raise the FFR to 4%.
> 
> Add in the trade deficits:
> 
> View attachment 140009
> 
> 
> The whole notion of 4% nominal FFR is farcical.
> 
> Summary:
> 
> The Fed will maintain the illusion of fighting inflation for as long as possible. Each raise will crush risk assets and accelerate the recession's arrival and the day of the next QE.
> 
> Add in the mid-term elections, the political pressure on Mr Powell will be unrelenting. Is he a Paul Volcker? Hardly.
> 
> Very bullish on gold/silver.
> 
> jog on
> duc





rederob said:


> I gave you a 👍for effort, but POG as a store of value is not doing what is should given the situation in Ukraine.
> 
> POG has for weeks equivocated, and on a medium term basis is trading at the lower end of its trend:
> View attachment 140022
> 
> 
> In uncertain times it is unusual for POG to be so rangebound.






DaveTrade said:


> I put this down to the fact that these are not only uncertain times but they are also very unusual times. There are so many destabilizing things happening in the world, all at the same time.





Thanks @ducati916 , @rederob , and @DaveTrade 

I had noticed Gold being rangebound and was attempting to post on it. I was unable to put it in context with appropriate charts. 

I more or less agree with all three of you, although differences in opinions on the the direction of POG at any one time have been about since Midas began accumulating. 

My gut tells me it will surpass previous highs in $USD. It is a time of indecision atm but it will not go down. 

For those who have never been in a war zone a cigarette can often have value way beyond that which it attracted at source. 

Gold is a commodity that has been bought to be kept. I still have the first ten ounces I purchased in the early 1980's safely buried.
Admittedly traders have predominated since online markets were established, but physical is kept. It is kept because of its value for the future in relation to other commodities such as food, shelter, fuel and safety. 

That last commodity "safety" is untradable.  

And that is why Gold will appreciate in the short to medium term. 

Hopefully, and I say this as a holder of Gold in many forms, I hope it falls again long term. 

Give me a safe and pleasant world anytime. Midas I ain't. 

gg


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> I gave you a 👍for effort, but POG as a store of value is not doing what is should given the situation in Ukraine.
> 
> POG has for weeks equivocated, and on a medium term basis is trading at the lower end of its trend:
> View attachment 140022
> 
> 
> In uncertain times it is unusual for POG to be so rangebound.




I think that is fair comment. The market still hasn't come to a consensus on whether there is to be a secular inflation or a deflationary recession (depression).

The historical record demonstrates the flippe-floppe nature of gold vis-a-vis investors. Interest rates, nominal and real. Fed tightening cycles and effects thereof and war.









In addition we have the Ruble backed by gold, which will play havoc with DXY valuations in gold




Plenty for gold to digest.

Ultimately, gold wins in either scenario, inflation/deflation, it matters not. 

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold remains rangebound. 

It would not surprise me to see a whiplash either way, down towards $USD 1800 or up to $USD 2100. 

These are nice spots to be contrarian and take small profits or buy long from the convicted. I say that not in relation to Eddie, Moses and Ian at Cooma who I am told by the Prison Visitors Committee here at the hotel are ASF members but people with fixed ideas on the direction of Gold. 

Long term, which these days is 2 weeks + , Gold is on the up. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I must admit that I like price channels. 

Enclosed is a chart of PMGOLD, an easy avenue for those in Australia without a shovel nor a large run to buy and bury gold. 

The RSI also often 

often precedes a change in price movement as is demonstrated in October 2021, January and February 2022. 




gg


----------



## Ann

DaveTrade said:


> Yes I look for developing patterns as well but I don't like to let myself give them too much weight in my mind at first, as they develop they become more significant for me. I've found that when I call them too early I'm too often wrong. From your writing above it would seem that you feel the same but don't care too much about calling them early anyway. Maybe some time in the future I'll be able to say to you 'good call'.



I am not looking for recognition for a good call, it is about being forewarned of a potential outcome. If I see something early I can be looking out for a potential outcome earlier or delay investment until the coast is clear. I am currently avoiding buying any gold or silver stocks or ETFs until the rising wedge has resolved, either by a failed pattern or by resolving downwards out of the rising wedge. It comes down to capital protection, not kudos or otherwise for a chart call.


----------



## wayneL

Ann said:


> I am not looking for recognition for a good call, it is about being forewarned of a potential outcome. If I see something early I can be looking out for a potential outcome earlier or delay investment until the coast is clear. I am currently avoiding buying any gold or silver stocks or ETFs until the rising wedge has resolved, either by a failed pattern or by resolving downwards out of the rising wedge. It comes down to capital protection, not kudos or otherwise for a chart call.



I'm looking for a gold/silver wipeout from extraneous events.

In fact I'm looking for an everything wipeout from blow-up of the bond market.

Just dunno when.


----------



## DaveTrade

Ann said:


> I am currently avoiding buying any gold or silver stocks or ETFs until the rising wedge has resolved



I think that your logic is sound, I'm just a bit different in that I like to run a bit closer to the market and trade in and out of shorter moves. So I'm watching to see when gold breaks out from the current sideways movement and I'll trade that move and still be watching as the bigger picture forms. The comment about 'good call' was just a bit of tongue and cheek, I know from your postings that you take your trading seriously.


----------



## Ann

DaveTrade said:


> I think that your logic is sound, I'm just a bit different in that I like to run a bit closer to the market and trade in and out of shorter moves. So I'm watching to see when gold breaks out from the current sideways movement and I'll trade that move and still be watching as the bigger picture forms. The comment about 'good call' was just a bit of tongue and cheek, I know from your postings that you take your trading seriously.




Yes, short term trading relies very little on longer-term views, it can be a hint but not a reason to avoid trading, unlike my time scale, I prefer to be in something for as long a time as possible, preferably in the green.



wayneL said:


> I'm looking for a gold/silver wipeout from extraneous events.
> 
> In fact I'm looking for an everything wipeout from blow-up of the bond market.
> 
> Just dunno when.




I am absolutely no good at guessing the future, I just let the charts tell me what I should be doing and where I should be buying.
Talking about bonds, I watch the ETF PLUS on a daily basis and am really surprised at the long and consistent fall in the price. I am waiting for a reversal, if not then I think bonds may be really a lost cause for the time being. Not that I buy them these days, they were something I bought as a teenager.  However, if they look tempting enough I might hop into PLUS or some such.


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD is still trading sideways but so far holding above the 50 day SMA and that important support zone, all my directional indicators are mixed. All I can do is encapsulate the recent price action between trend lines to highlight the contracting sideways price action. Maybe tonight's session will help to point to the next direction.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Well it looks as if Gold will be going on a tear next week.

Deja vu, all over again, as we say at the hotel.

Onwards and upwards.




gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well it looks as if Gold will be going on a tear next week.
> 
> Deja vu, all over again, as we say at the hotel.
> 
> Onwards and upwards.



What a crazy market we are in!
Despite the fact that POG is trading above its post GFC peak of 2011, gold producers are still languishing.  Based on POG's previous history Newcrest, as an example, should be trading above $45/share and rising strongly in a bull market.
Equally the case for POO, albeit POO is just trading at a comparatively high price but lower than its 2008 peak.  Woodside as an example would have hit $50/share a while back and still be trading around $45/share despite recent weakness.
Neither NCM nor WPL are anywhere near the previous highs, and would need to add another 30% minimum to their present prices to be comparably placed.

Then I looked at base metals. Same story to a degree in that near record high prices are only marginally affecting share prices.  S32 seems to be the exception but that's probably because it also has coking coal in its mix.

I get the impression that punters are exceptionally cautious with anything that has to come out of the ground, and prefer to risk more money on banks and typically less volatile market segments.  What's silly, if that is the case, is that most segments are prone to cyclical trends.  And its the minerals sector that typically goes through the roof when it takes off.

Gold can be a bit weirder though because, as @ducati916's 12 million charts show, there is often no rhyme nor reason to its sharp movements up or down when in a bull market trend.  It's a case of knowing there is a trend, and "holding on."  Active traders will have been in and out many times, but that's never been me as that way I don't worry about regrets in missing buying or selling opportunities during the journey.


----------



## Tyre Kicker

I have to agree Rob. One would feel that the miners so still have a long way to run. Gold shares have been a little underwhelming tbh. Wondering if WPL has a cap on its sp due to the deal with BHP. But with oil at $100 I am surprised WPL is not sitting at $36+ by now.


----------



## rederob

Just to clarify where we are now:


----------



## ducati916

rederob said:


> What a crazy market we are in!
> Despite the fact that POG is trading above its post GFC peak of 2011, gold producers are still languishing.  Based on POG's previous history Newcrest, as an example, should be trading above $45/share and rising strongly in a bull market.
> Equally the case for POO, albeit POO is just trading at a comparatively high price but lower than its 2008 peak.  Woodside as an example would have hit $50/share a while back and still be trading around $45/share despite recent weakness.
> Neither NCM nor WPL are anywhere near the previous highs, and would need to add another 30% minimum to their present prices to be comparably placed.
> 
> Then I looked at base metals. Same story to a degree in that near record high prices are only marginally affecting share prices.  S32 seems to be the exception but that's probably because it also has coking coal in its mix.
> 
> I get the impression that punters are exceptionally cautious with anything that has to come out of the ground, and prefer to risk more money on banks and typically less volatile market segments.  What's silly, if that is the case, is that most segments are prone to cyclical trends.  And its the minerals sector that typically goes through the roof when it takes off.
> 
> Gold can be a bit weirder though because, as @ducati916's 12 million charts show, there is often no rhyme nor reason to its sharp movements up or down when in a bull market trend.  It's a case of knowing there is a trend, and "holding on."  Active traders will have been in and out many times, but that's never been me as that way I don't worry about regrets in missing buying or selling opportunities during the journey.





The 'reason' for golds rather haphazard progress is that gold is front and centre in the 'financial war' that is raging (primarily) between China, Russia, India, Iran, Turkey and (primarily) the US.

At stake is DXY hegemony and (ultimate) control of the world reserve currency.

The US financial system is using every art it possesses to suppress the monetary metals. Once it fails, and it will with a high probability fail, the move higher will be explosive.

Trading in and out, if you are out at the time, will mean that you miss the move.

jog on
duc


----------



## mullokintyre

ducati916 said:


> I think that is fair comment. The market still hasn't come to a consensus on whether there is to be a secular inflation or a deflationary recession (depression).
> 
> The historical record demonstrates the flippe-floppe nature of gold vis-a-vis investors. Interest rates, nominal and real. Fed tightening cycles and effects thereof and war.
> 
> View attachment 140029
> View attachment 140025
> View attachment 140034
> View attachment 140030
> View attachment 140031
> View attachment 140032
> 
> 
> In addition we have the Ruble backed by gold, which will play havoc with DXY valuations in gold
> 
> View attachment 140028
> 
> 
> Plenty for gold to digest.
> 
> Ultimately, gold wins in either scenario, inflation/deflation, it matters not.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Thanks for the detail you have been putting in duc, but can I make a request that you label what the charts are showing.
Some are obvious, others are not.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It would appear that it is not just ASF Gold mavens who are bullish on Gold. 

From Ole S Hansen, Head of commodity trading at Saxo Bank, via Twitter today. 




Monday should be interesting as Sydney is first off the mark. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

I wonder how much inflation price is factored into gold. Might be the difference between a break up or down. There's still a war premium loaded on I think, but not much. 









						Gold price to focus on new decades-high inflation numbers next week - analysts
					





					www.kitco.com


----------



## Telamelo

Gold looks bullish now at US $1,960 equivalent to AUD Gold $2,633 as we speak.

Cheers tela


----------



## Sean K

US POG tracking sideways for a bit, needs to break one way or the other. Will a surprise on interest rates one way or the other do it?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> Gold looks bullish now at US $1,960 equivalent to AUD Gold $2,633 as we speak.
> 
> Cheers tela



I would hope to see $USD1940 as the new floor for POG, as that is what Putin's Ruble/Oil play has fixed it at according to the Gold experts.

Onwards and upwards. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

An update from kitco.com.

Goldman Sachs is tipping POG to hit $USD 2500 this year.




gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Quite and interesting 3 days on Gold and some stats on it's progress since 200o.

From Kitco.com




gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Quite and interesting 3 days on Gold and some stats on it's progress since 200o.
> 
> From Kitco.com
> 
> View attachment 140392
> 
> 
> gg




Breaking through the 1960 level makes me think the bias is short term up, but with so much volatility due to the geopolitics it's anyone's guess.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Breaking through the 1960 level makes me think the bias is short term up, but with so much volatility due to the geopolitics it's anyone's guess.



I'd agree @Sean K .

$1940-$1980 is the range these past few days. 

Some are talking of $2500 this year. 

Who knows. I'm in and riding it. 

gg


----------



## explod

Looking good to break the US$2000 soon IMHO


----------



## bluekelah

Inflation reading was 8.5% last night, Fed is starting to s**t their pants. Its a repeat of 1970s again, here we go to 10% rates and 5K
 POG.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

If anyone has a better plan than this let me know. 





gg


----------



## Telamelo

Aussie Gold price crept a little higher overnight to AUD $2,661 .. as we await another overnight US market session on Monday night before our ASX market opens up on Tuesday morning.

I think Monday night we could see Gold breach US $2,000+ is my gut feeling.

Cheers tela


----------



## bluekelah

Telamelo said:


> Aussie Gold price crept a little higher overnight to AUD $2,661 .. as we await another overnight US market session on Monday night before our ASX market opens up on Tuesday morning.
> 
> I think Monday night we could see Gold breach US $2,000+ is my gut feeling.
> 
> Cheers tela



possible as theres increase in global tensions with the Russian ship destroyed and finland wanting to join nato, Russia is saying for them to be prepared for nukes to be nearer to them if they do. Oil price may go back to $120+ again as well.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just some thoughts.

I'm swimming in various forms of the yellow metal.

For those new to Gold, just work out if you are a long term or a short term holder. 

Gold can be volatile and like other trading assets, if you are a short termer, what is your aim, 5%,10%,20% gain?

For Gold to go up 20% you are looking atm at POG of just under $USD 2400.

If it does get there do you have the discipline to sell and take a profit, and not be afraid to buy back in at $2450 if it looks like going higher. 

What is your stop loss?

If you are a long termer, do you have a stop loss e.g $1600 and the discipline to take a loss, and buy back in above $1700 ?

Or are you a set and forget investor? ( Do you have enough years left on this mortal coil to see it run through another cycle ?? )

gg


----------



## DaveTrade

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just some thoughts.



Some wise words for traders still trying to find their way.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold chart update/analysis from 22:45 onwards.. looks bullish!


----------



## bluekelah

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just some thoughts.
> 
> I'm swimming in various forms of the yellow metal.
> 
> For those new to Gold, just work out if you are a long term or a short term holder.
> 
> Gold can be volatile and like other trading assets, if you are a short termer, what is your aim, 5%,10%,20% gain?
> 
> For Gold to go up 20% you are looking atm at POG of just under $USD 2400.
> 
> If it does get there do you have the discipline to sell and take a profit, and not be afraid to buy back in at $2450 if it looks like going higher.
> 
> What is your stop loss?
> 
> If you are a long termer, do you have a stop loss e.g $1600 and the discipline to take a loss, and buy back in above $1700 ?
> 
> Or are you a set and forget investor? ( Do you have enough years left on this mortal coil to see it run through another cycle ?? )
> 
> gg



For me gold is an insurance policy against inflation and fiat monetary policy. Used to have 5% allocated but have up exposure to physical and mining stocks to 10%plus now with some silver in the mix. Mining stocks pay a dividend so it allows me to hold the physical which doesnt generate any income. Recently I have added some oil/energy/food related commodity stocks as well as I believe these are a good inflation hedge in the short term, and over long term they provide good dividend income anyways.

POG has done a run late 2019/2020 to reflect precovid monetary inflation. I Believe the current run up to reflect the trillions fed printed in 2021 might not be completely priced in yet, as there is no "Panic" in the general retail investor space to load up on gold yet.

pretty sure we are gonna see a supercycle for gold similar to the early 70s and late 70s where gold went up 4x-5x each time and there was stagflation. This time round may not be exactly the same but history tends to repeat and we do have the ingredients already with a massive rise in M2 money supply past couple years causing the ever increasing inflation today and likely for another year, plus a FED that HAS to really at some point, raise rates quickly to match the current 8.5% inflation which will crash markets causing stagflation similar to 1970s.

Worse case world moves on to a new reserve currency and USA defaults causing financial chaos and a big reset that some are talking about.


----------



## rederob

Way too early to suggest a post-Easter trend is in place, but the Easter Bunny has delivered:


----------



## Sean K

Gold breaking through and holding above the $1960 mark looks positive. Could attack the ATHs again during this push. Downside support zone across $1900/10 ish looks pretty good. Still a war premium cooked into the price perhaps? If it turns good, which looks unlikely, will probably drop quite a bit. But, if the war gets nastier and spreads could be a significant spike. Not sure what will happen if Russia start selling their gold to fund the war effort. Will probably be at a discount.


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Inflation has to be providing a decent push to acquire gold.

Surely.


----------



## bluekelah

It's all about the big picture for me guys. Over Easter Russia has taken Mariupol, Zelensky is still defiant, Russia has warned US against sending weapons, Russia has warned finland about nuclear proliferation should they join NATO, etc.. etc.. Massive 8.5% inflation which was "transitory" but has now become "supply chain" and "war" and "yield curve not moving up yet", still trying to find excuses. LOL.. Its 1970s all over again I reckon, for australia possibly 1980s recession again. We also have new petrodollar with the BRICS/SAUDIs hashing it out. 

Nowhere safer/better than Gold at the moment. FED cannot do more than 2% rates anyway as US debt is 30trillion. Thats 600billion interest vs a 2.8trillion budget deficit ROFL.. doesnt take a math genius to see how that works out. 

Russia has no issue escalating the war now as they have lotsa gold to back the rouble. Gold funds wars, always has and Russia has plenty. 

look at the 1970s POG chart, 40 to 180 then back to 120 then back to 600+ late 70s. Stagflations here to stay for a while..


----------



## ducati916

Gold is breaking an important correlation:




Gold is a 'bond' that has infinite duration, infinite face value and 0% yield.
A 10s Treasury has a 10yr duration, fixed face value and currently a real (-5.67%) yield

Which has broken the normal 'inverse' correlation.

When gold rises with yields, that is a very strong signal to be long gold.

jog on
duc


----------



## wayneL

ducati916 said:


> Gold is breaking an important correlation:
> 
> View attachment 140522
> 
> 
> Gold is a 'bond' that has infinite duration, infinite face value and 0% yield.
> A 10s Treasury has a 10yr duration, fixed face value and currently a real (-5.67%) yield
> 
> Which has broken the normal 'inverse' correlation.
> 
> When gold rises with yields, that is a very strong signal to be long gold.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Once I heard that gold is like a zero-coupon bond with zero maturity, a few light bulbs starting going on for me.

Additionally there is the cost of production and minimum value analysis for all commodities that that I usually use.

Upside vs downside analysis to me says that there is a ton more upside than downside


----------



## divs4ever

wayneL said:


> Once I heard that gold is like a zero-coupon bond with zero maturity, a few light bulbs starting going on for me.
> 
> Additionally there is the cost of production and minimum value analysis for all commodities that that I usually use.
> 
> Upside vs downside analysis to me says that there is a ton more upside than downside



 yes but physical gold  held at home ( by yourself ) has negligible risk of default  ,  , is less likely to become completely worthless , i would guess you could always exchange it for something physical ( even if possession was made illegal )

 bonds rely on TRUST ( especially  sovereign bonds ) given some  some sovereign bonds are trading  at negative nominal rates ( and many more at negative real rates ) currently  , even physically held base metals ( like zinc, aluminum , copper  , etc ) offer a better deal than bonds ( assuming you have storage space for them )


----------



## ducati916

divs4ever said:


> yes but physical gold  held at home ( by yourself ) has negligible risk of default  ,  , is less likely to become completely worthless , i would guess you could always exchange it for something physical ( even if possession was made illegal )
> 
> bonds rely on TRUST ( especially  sovereign bonds ) given some  some sovereign bonds are trading  at negative nominal rates ( and many more at negative real rates ) currently  , even physically held base metals ( like zinc, aluminum , copper  , etc ) offer a better deal than bonds ( assuming you have storage space for them )




Correct: gold is nobodies liability, unlike a bond which is the issuer's liability (your asset). So there is zero counter-party risk with gold. A bond will always have counter-party risk.

With the advent of 'blockchain' gold also does now have a yield. Of course, by hypothecating your gold, for a yield, you assume counter-party risk vis-a-vis return of the gold + interest.

jog on
duc


----------



## bluekelah

ducati916 said:


> Correct: gold is nobodies liability, unlike a bond which is the issuer's liability (your asset). So there is zero counter-party risk with gold. A bond will always have counter-party risk.
> 
> With the advent of 'blockchain' gold also does now have a yield. Of course, by hypothecating your gold, for a yield, you assume counter-party risk vis-a-vis return of the gold + interest.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Yes stackers have a saying if its not in your hands its not yours.

As I mentioned before physical gold is an insurance policy, and you can always augment that holding safely with big gold miners that have strong balance sheets. In the medium to long term, the miners will provide the cash flow/income and should SHTF in the short term u sleep easy as everyone else panics and rushes to gold pushing the price up 4x -5x , maybe even 10x this round given how anything that is hyped just goes to the moon nowadays.

Yes I am waiting for Elon buy a few billion worth of gold and metals secretly like he did the crypto, then start tweeting about how he wants a fair society with financials based on gold, or maybe he might talk about silver and how its the future of solar power and clean energy. Hey guys you can now buy your new CYBERTRUCK with GOLD/SILVER! Now that would be a nice 5x at least for silver, especially with all the bullion banks getting squeezed.

Way I see it, with inflation already upwards of 10%+++ in the "real world" / " main street" , cash is now almost trash, you can either go heavy cash short term and wait for the imminent stock crash once higher rates kick in then buy in, or you can park it in precious metals/commodities related assets  and just watch the show


----------



## rederob

Below is the linear regression trend from 2020, which is nicely positive:


Prior to last Friday, POG was stuck in a holding pattern for a month, and today - Easter Monday - shows an initial breakout.
As all we armchair quarterbacks (to borrow that American phrase) have prognosticated, a push into new *record *highs in coming months is decidedly likely.
More interesting is the long term regression, below, from December 2015's low:


----------



## Telamelo

bluekelah said:


> Yes stackers have a saying if its not in your hands its not yours.
> 
> As I mentioned before physical gold is an insurance policy, and you can always augment that holding safely with big gold miners that have strong balance sheets. In the medium to long term, the miners will provide the cash flow/income and should SHTF in the short term u sleep easy as everyone else panics and rushes to gold pushing the price up 4x -5x , maybe even 10x this round given how anything that is hyped just goes to the moon nowadays.
> 
> Yes I am waiting for Elon buy a few billion worth of gold and metals secretly like he did the crypto, then start tweeting about how he wants a fair society with financials based on gold, or maybe he might talk about silver and how its the future of solar power and clean energy, Now that would be a nice 5x at least for silver, especially with all the bullion banks getting squeezed.
> 
> Way I see it, with inflation already upwards of 10%+++ in the "real world" / " main street" , cash is now almost trash, you can either go heavy cash short term and wait for the imminent stock crash once higher rates kick in, or you can park it in precious metals/commodities related assets  and just watch the show



I wouldn't mind if Elon Musk got into/considered high grade Manganese as well lol (perhaps a stake in JMS would be ideal) towards enhancing Tesla & EV's when it comes to improved battery technology/capabilities etc.

AUD Gold price now $2,702 






						Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com
					

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.




					goldbroker.com


----------



## bluekelah

Telamelo said:


> I wouldn't mind if Elon Musk got into/considered high grade Manganese as well lol (perhaps a stake in JMS would be ideal) towards enhancing Tesla & EV's when it comes to improved battery technology/capabilities etc.
> 
> AUD Gold price now $2,702
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com
> 
> 
> Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> goldbroker.com



I dont think that would happen as Tesla doesnt really do their own batteries, its just an agreement of supply from panasonic. Other EV  manufacturers have access to Panasonic batteries as well was what I read. 

However Tesla does have the previously loss making insolvent Solar City on its books, which probably does use silver in solar panel production, (especially in those fancy solar panel roof tiles) , so its something they will need and be able to buy in large quantities and help their balance sheet with a twitter pump...


----------



## rederob

bluekelah said:


> I dont think that would happen as Tesla doesnt really do their own batteries, its just an agreement of supply from panasonic. Other EV  manufacturers have access to Panasonic batteries as well was what I read.
> 
> However Tesla does have the previously loss making insolvent Solar City on its books, which probably does use silver in solar panel production, (especially in those fancy solar panel roof tiles) , so its something they will need and be able to buy in large quantities and help their balance sheet with a twitter pump...



Tesla has been making batteries for four years, eg. their Powerwalls, but uses LG Chem, CATL and Panasonic batteries for their EVs.
But on topic, tho still with Elon, I get the impression he thinks of gold as "old fashioned" unless he can mine the asteroid Psyche 16 via SpaceX.
Anyway, the *Hunt Bros stuffed-up cornering the silver market*, so I don't think Musk has much chance with gold, seeing most is still locked away in Central Banks.
I haven't done the sums on silver and solar panels, but demand keeps increasing, so unless a lot is recovered in panel recycling then I image a fair amount of supply is presently disappearing in this product akin to how previously it was the case in film.


----------



## Trader X

ducati916 said:


> Gold is a 'bond' that has infinite duration, infinite face value and 0% yield.
> A 10s Treasury has a 10yr duration, fixed face value and currently a real (-5.67%) yield



A real yield calculation based on the current U.S. government CPI metric, a measurement deliberately skewed to underquote inflation, is of course going to understate reality.  The real inflation rate in the U.S., calculated using 1990 methodology is now about 17%.  So the real negative yield is closer to -16.5% against the current fed funds rate.  Assuming the gold price is a hedge against a real inflation metric, the effective yield is much higher than 0%.


----------



## DaveTrade

*Gold’s focus remains on oil, not yields*



*Ole Hansen*
Head of Commodity Strategy

*Summary: *Gold, currently up around 7% so far this year, continues to perform strongly despite persistent headwinds from rising real yields and a stronger dollar. Instead the yellow metal has increasingly been focusing on multiple uncertainties, some of which were already present before Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation and growth concerns have both been turbocharged by war and sanctions, and together with elevated volatility in stocks and not least bonds, these developments have seen investors increasingly look for safe havens in tangible assets such as investment metals.

Impressive, is the word best describing gold’s performance so far this year. Currently up around 7% during a time where normal drivers such as US real yields and the dollar have risen, normally a development that would see gold struggle. The prospect of aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve has driven ten-year real yields higher by more than 1% while supporting a near 4% rise in the dollar against a broad index of currencies.

Last year’s relatively weak performance, especially against the dollar, despite emerging inflationary concerns was driven by portfolio managers cutting back on the holdings they accumulated during 2020 as stock markets rallied and bond yields held relatively steady, thereby reducing the need for diversification. Fast forward to 2022 and we are now dealing with multiple uncertainties, some of which were already present before Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation and growth concerns have both been turbocharged by war and sanctions, and together with elevated volatility in bonds and not least stocks, investors have sought safe havens in tangible assets such as investment metals.

During the past year, gold and ten-year real yields have struggled to follow their usual inverse paths, and the dislocation accelerated further during Q1 when gold increasingly managed to ignore rising yields. At current levels gold is theoretically overvalued by around 300 dollars, and highlights a major shift in focus.




The net reduction in bullion-backed ETFs that was seen throughout last year came to halt in late December, and since then total holdings have risen by 282 tons to 3325 tons. During the same time leveraged funds, primarily operating in the futures market, given the ability to trade lots valued at $195,000 for a margin of less than $8,000, have been much more dependent on the directional movements in the market. Following the March 8 failed attempt to reach a fresh record high they spent the following weeks scaling back exposure. An exercise that was not completed until the week of April 12 when they returned as net buyers, thereby aligning them with the mentioned ongoing demand for ETFs.




While inflation was something we talked about last year, the actual impact of sharply higher prices of everything is now increasingly being felt across the world. In response to this investors are increasingly waking up to the fact that the good years which delivered strong equity returns and stable yields are over. Instead the need to become more defensive has set in and these changes together with the risk of what Russia, a pariah nation to much of the world now, may do next if the war fails to yield the desired result.

Instead of real yields, we have increasingly seen gold take some its directional input from crude oil, a development that makes perfect sense. The ebb and flow of the oil price impacts inflation through refined products such as diesel and gasoline while its strength or weakness also tell us something about the level of geopolitical risks in the system.




In our recently published Quarterly Outlook we highlight the reasons why we see gold move higher and reach a fresh record high later this year.


----------



## qldfrog

really like the Gold vs oil graph.Quite telling


----------



## DaveTrade

qldfrog said:


> really like the Gold vs oil graph.Quite telling



I'll put up daily, weekly and monthly charts of this to get a more comprehensive look at it;


----------



## bluekelah

DaveTrade said:


> I'll put up daily, weekly and monthly charts of this to get a more comprehensive look at it;
> 
> View attachment 140655
> 
> View attachment 140656
> 
> View attachment 140657



both are trading in tandem as possibly the new safe haven , inflation hedging assets  Smart money is now most short all other sectors but going into gold, oil and commodities. Look at how Bill Ackman cut his twitter losses , 400million, gosh


----------



## ducati916

DaveTrade said:


> I'll put up daily, weekly and monthly charts of this to get a more comprehensive look at it;
> 
> View attachment 140655
> 
> View attachment 140656
> 
> View attachment 140657




Even longer term:





jog on
duc


----------



## Telamelo

US market's nose dived overnight finishing deep in the red.. however AUD Gold price finished @ $2,668 +0.74%


----------



## wayneL

Telamelo said:


> US market's nose dived overnight finishing deep in the red.. however AUD Gold price finished @ $2,668 +0.74%



Yeah, because AUD is reminiscing about the forest scenes in Deliverance.


----------



## finicky

After 20 years of upset expectations I don't usually see the point of discussing short term moves in the gold price but BtL's mention of  down to US$1900 as a level of interest is reached the night of the day he posted his vid! Maybe I should pull a couple of bids (STN, OZM)
And Palladium, wow, CHN and DEV tomorrow presumably💩


----------



## divs4ever

the gold price  is used to give me  hints  of  a low gold stock price ( on something i would like to accumulate )


----------



## divs4ever

Palladium sheds nearly 13% on worries over China demand hit









						Palladium sheds nearly 13% on worries over China demand hit By Reuters
					

Palladium sheds nearly 13% on worries over China demand hit




					www.investing.com
				




 i suppose this raises the question   , is China reducing  ICE  vehicle manufacture ( or maybe just abandoning emission control systems  on local vehicles ) or buying more  Palladium  direct from Russia  , avoiding  Western market systems


----------



## Cam019

Cam019 said:


> *XAU/USD*


----------



## DaveTrade




----------



## Telamelo

Gold monthly chart since 1975 till now  (watch from 25:25 onwards)


----------



## divs4ever

well the 'gold price'  is totally manipulated ( unless you are buying those shiny ingots/coins and putting them in your pocket and taking them home )  and the BIG players are likely to have leveraged their ( gold ) stock holdings  , so could possibly be squeezed 

  remember the US dollar is losing influence  they are going have to manipulate like there is no tomorrow  , to make the dollar look relevant 

 good luck 

 ( i am CAREFULLY accumulating  gold stocks  as the opportunities arrive , but NOT using leverage )


----------



## Ann

DaveTrade said:


> View attachment 140890



That is a very interesting chart Dave, I had a look at it for fun on Stockcharts using gold colour for gold and black for oil. In the few days since you posted this, there appears to be a divergence, oil going up gold going down. Very interesting comparison




Having looked at what the ETFs were doing then I decided to see what the POO and POG looked like together. There is still this current divergence but here the POG looks as though it may be chasing the POO. Very, very interesting, thanks Dave!


----------



## Ann

I am still playing with the concept of volume spikes as an indicator for future price movements. If I see a large volume spike at a high point I am thinking a decent fall and vice versa if a spike is at the bottom of a price fall then I would expect a rising price.

Having said that I am wondering if we will see a fall in the POG, I am not too sure about this one because it is not at either a major top to cause a fall nor is it at a major bottom for a rise. It is a very big volume spike. Interested to watch, I am thinking fall but may not be, just me amusing myself with charts folks.


----------



## DaveTrade

Ann said:


> I am still playing with the concept of volume spikes as an indicator for future price movements.



Ann if your study of the markets reaction to volume spikes is producing statistics that your not quite happy with, you could add 'On Balance Volume' to your study to see if may help. OBV is an indication of the strength of the prevailing trend.


----------



## divs4ever

Ann said:


> That is a very interesting chart Dave, I had a look at it for fun on Stockcharts using gold colour for gold and black for oil. In the few days since you posted this, there appears to be a divergence, oil going up gold going down. Very interesting comparison
> 
> View attachment 141368
> 
> 
> Having looked at what the ETFs were doing then I decided to see what the POO and POG looked like together. There is still this current divergence but here the POG looks as though it may be chasing the POO. Very, very interesting, thanks Dave!
> 
> View attachment 141369



 the main sovereign  friends of gold  are weaning themselves of the US dollar  ( Russia , China , and India  and others )

 so gold LOOKS like it is declining in demand  , whilst oil SO FAR  is mainly bought in US Dollars  ( but most commodities  are rising  compared to the US Dollar )


----------



## Ann

DaveTrade said:


> Ann if your study of the markets reaction to volume spikes is producing statistics that your not quite happy with, you could add 'On Balance Volume' to your study to see if may help. OBV is an indication of the strength of the prevailing trend.



Thanks for the suggestion Dave, most appreciated. I don't get a lot from OBV as an indicator I looked at it for a while back in the early days, it didn't speak to me. I find Twiggs Money Flow is more informative for me and looking at that it appears there is an outflow of money with GOLD ETF. My little volume spike exercise is trying to look at volume spike and chart price alone. Seeing if I can work out a reasonably reliable pattern I can use as a guide to potential price movements. I do glance at the TMF occasionally as with this example with GOLD ETF, hence my more bearish thinking.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It is impossible to see in to the future. 

Deduction and inference assist trading. 

At present the $US is so dominant it is difficult to trade Gold in $AUD with any hope of making a good profit on the upside. 

Therefore I will only buy paper Gold in $AUD at close to $US 1800 no matter which way AUD/USD is trending. 

If you haven't got physical Gold buried it is probably too late btw. 

DDDDYYYYYOOOOOOOOHRRR whatever that means. 

This advice to myself is specific and not general in nature. 

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is impossible to see in to the future.
> 
> Deduction and inference assist trading.
> 
> At present the $US is so dominant it is difficult to trade Gold in $AUD with any hope of making a good profit on the upside.
> 
> Therefore I will only buy paper Gold in $AUD at close to $US 1800 no matter which way AUD/USD is trending.
> 
> If you haven't got physical Gold buried it is probably too late btw.
> 
> DDDDYYYYYOOOOOOOOHRRR whatever that means.
> 
> This advice to myself is specific and not general in nature.
> 
> gg




And if its not buried burry it now before its too late


----------



## Sean K

Well, I've been away for a week diving with the fishes and just checked the POG. eeeeek! Breaking the old resistance / what should have been support across $1850 is bad juju short term. Fingers crossed $1820 ish holds, but it's panic stations out there.


----------



## Telamelo

Sean K said:


> Well, I've been away for a week diving with the fishes and just checked the POG. eeeeek! Breaking the old resistance / what should have been support across $1850 is bad juju short term. Fingers crossed $1820 ish holds, but it's panic stations out there.
> 
> View attachment 141569
> 
> View attachment 141568



Mmm diving with the fishes!? lucky you as sounds serene/blissful 👍😎

Some comfort that at least our AUD Gold price is holding up quite well @ $2,651


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Well, I've been away for a week diving with the fishes and just checked the POG. eeeeek! Breaking the old resistance / what should have been support across $1850 is bad juju short term. Fingers crossed $1820 ish holds, but it's panic stations out there.
> 
> View attachment 141569
> 
> View attachment 141568



 you should have been looking for treasure chests and doubloons ( wink ) ( and watching out for the big NASTY fishes  )

 but 'they ' NEED to crush the gold price  to make Treasury Bonds look safe 

 ( if only you could get the real stuff at the futures price )


----------



## Ann

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is impossible to see in to the future.
> 
> Deduction and inference assist trading.
> 
> At present the $US is so dominant it is difficult to trade Gold in $AUD with any hope of making a good profit on the upside.
> 
> Therefore I will only buy paper Gold in $AUD at close to $US 1800 no matter which way AUD/USD is trending.
> 
> If you haven't got physical Gold buried it is probably too late btw.
> 
> DDDDYYYYYOOOOOOOOHRRR whatever that means.
> 
> This advice to myself is specific and not general in nature.
> 
> gg



Not sure I agree with you GG, I think you can potentially see into the future by looking at enough charts. As we all know the $US is inverse to the gold price. This is the reason they treat gold as such a wonderful hedge for their currency. Dollar goes down gold goes up, lovely! However, we are not so lucky, as the POG falls our $AU also falls so it is almost a lose lose situation for us and gold is certainly not a hedge for our dollar.



Telamelo said:


> Some comfort that at least our AUD Gold price is holding up quite well @ $2,651



I think they are just holding hands and falling together more than holding up.


Having said the POG travels inverse to the $US, let's look at how the $US is travelling. I have been watching $US for a while, particularly as my quarterly chart for the POG was showing a bearish rising wedge, which has currently broken down, time will tell if the full quarter will still see a true breakdown.

I did a 30-year daily chart for the $US and it is looking very bullish, broken above a long term falling trendline resistance and I worked out a swing trade calc for it. Looks like it may top at around 130.00. If I am right then I would expect the POG to tank. May be quite wrong of course, let's see.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'm still mulling whether to have another poke at PMGOLD before the close.

The bedwetters in London may push POG down to $USD 1800 after we close, which may be a good resistance and launch, up and over,     $USD 2000 next week.

Trouble is holding it overthe w/e if it goes below that.

At that price it appears to be win/win for me, which is a sure sign I should pause and re-examine.

Don't do your own research DYOR, BTW. BTW=By the way. DYOR=Go to prison if ASIC catch you giving advice to the thousands who follow your every breath because you are such an important analyst.

Do as I do and enjoy yeselves.

And as always BYO.

A chart from some moments ago.


----------



## DaveTrade




----------



## Telamelo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm still mulling whether to have another poke at PMGOLD before the close.
> 
> The bedwetters in London may push POG down to $USD 1800 after we close, which may be a good resistance and launch, up and over,     $USD 2000 next week.
> 
> Trouble is holding it overthe w/e if it goes below that.
> 
> At that price it appears to be win/win for me, which is a sure sign I should pause and re-examine.
> 
> Don't do your own research DYOR, BTW. BTW=By the way. DYOR=Go to prison if ASIC catch you giving advice to the thousands who follow your every breath because you are such an important analyst.
> 
> Do as I do and enjoy yeselves.
> 
> And as always BYO.
> 
> A chart from some moments ago.
> 
> 
> View attachment 141580



I believe that Gold is a "strong buy" around current level's imho given political tensions/turmoil with ongoing escalation of Ukraine crisis unfolding as we speak - Putin going to start using more menacing firepower/weapons etc. imo as I believe war will spread to neighbouring countries around Ukraine (with NATO becoming directly involved).

Added to this rising interest rates feel that Gold will soon re-gain it's bullish momentum on the way to US$2,000+


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Well @Telamelo I did have a poke, and the London bedwetting cousins did not disappoint. 

Under an hour to go before cessation of hostilities for the weekend and POG should close close to $US 1800.

Onwards and rebound on Monday. 



gg


----------



## DaveTrade

It looks to me like GLD still has further to fall but there is support just below 167.5-166 zone, the current close is 168.79, the day or two will be telling;


----------



## ducati916

The US is in a recessionary bear market. That is to say that the Fed has allowed inflation to run far to far ahead of its easy monetary policies compounded by Fiscal ease. There is now obviously high and pernicious inflation.

The reason that the market is selling off is simply that the level of derivatives to the base money supply (physical dollars) is leveraged too high. This invariably leads to a liquidity crisis.

A liquidity crisis will see a fall in SPY at 80%.

Will the Fed allow that to occur without pivoting and a return to QE? Unlikely.

If we get a pivot, then gold/silver will explode higher, simply because to avert a liquidity crash, the level of QE will need to be multiples over the existing $9T currently on the balance sheet.

So look at gold through a different lens:




In a liquidity crisis...everything gets sold.

Gold, relative to SPY, is gradually moving higher. Sure, 2 steps forward, 1 step back.

The choice is paper or physical? Paper will likely fall as there is a liquidity crisis brewing. The interesting thing is that physical prices are not falling at all. There is a 20% premium to paper.

I buy physical. I'm not interested in the paper. There is a not zero risk that in the coming storm, markets will be closed/frozen. Your paper gold, convertible only into paper fiat, by the time it is unfrozen, is only of historical interest.

jog on
duc


----------



## divs4ever

ducati916 said:


> In a liquidity crisis...everything gets sold.



 by those panicked or leveraged  , absolutely   , a FEW will have diamond hands 



ducati916 said:


> The choice is paper or physical? Paper will likely fall as there is a liquidity crisis brewing. The interesting thing is that physical prices are not falling at all. There is a 20% premium to paper.



 yes  i am watching that  , closely 



ducati916 said:


> I buy physical. I'm not interested in the paper. There is a not zero risk that in the coming storm, markets will be closed/frozen. Your paper gold, convertible only into paper fiat, by the time it is unfrozen, is only of historical interest.



 yes Buffet obliquely hints that in the 'willing to hold the stock ten years if the markets are closed '

 because some stocks would carry the same risks in a crisis that big 

  a second bit of history  was the European Jewish families that had their money trapped in Swiss banks after WW2  ( just because the bank wasn't bombed are your savings  guaranteed )


----------



## qldfrog

Fyi
For silver but similar gold.
When you can get it
Silver at 30aud an oz on paper
You need to pay above $38 an once to get any metal so nearly 25%premium
Current gold metal above 2.6k an ounce..if you want to buy the real stuff


----------



## DaveTrade

The implications of the following article are far reaching and certainly for gold;


*We Are Facing a Period of Incredible Change*

By Tim FortierMay 13, 2022​

As we’ve outlined previously, we’re in a period of incredible change.

- Disinflation has been replaced with inflation.
- Interest rates are now rising, ceasing a 40-year trend in falling rates.
- The Fed is now removing liquidity from the economy which could push us over the edge into a           recession.

These shifts are significant and will continue to have a profound impact on investor portfolios.

But as seismic as these changes may be, no change could be more important than the subtle shifts taking place in the world currency markets.

As we discussed last week, the US has benefited from the US Dollar’s (USD) distinction as the world’s “reserve currency” – in large part due to the fact that global energy markets have traded exclusively in USD, giving the USD a “petrodollar” backing.

As the “world reserve currency,” the US has been allowed to “export” its dollars around the globe, despite running enormous deficits and producing little capacity.

But recently, several headlines and stories have caught my attention… and I’m shocked I find very little coverage of these stories in the mainstream financial press.

Back in late April, this headline I came across on *ZeroHedge*, jarred me.




In the weeks preceding this headline, there was already news about Russia and China taking big steps to remove themselves from Western monetary systems.

But Israel? Does Israel see the writing on the wall of what may be about to happen?

Let me explain…

When the US makes a purchase of goods or services, those are “exchanged” for USD.

As time goes on if the US buys (imports) more than it sells (exports), the country the US is doing business with will accumulate a reserve of USD. As long as there is a “belief” in the soundness of the currency, it’s “business as usual.”

But, if confidence is shaken, there can be problems.

The announcement by Israel’s central bank was the biggest change to its allocation of reserves in over a decade. To understand a possible motive of why Israel would do this, we need to back up a few weeks.

As a direct result of US sanctions cast upon Russia as a result of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia made the announcement that the Ruble would be backstopped by gold.

Further, it was announced that the backstopping of the Ruble with gold can come in many forms and doesn’t have to be a direct peg from the Ruble to gold – it can also include the far more likely scenario of accepting payment for oil, the country’s most ubiquitous and valuable resource, in gold.

By doing this, it linked the Ruble to Russia’s biggest resource – oil. In doing so, Russia has created a currency similar to the decades-old OPEC USD agreement.

And following this announcement, the Ruble is back to a two-year high versus the Eurodollar.




After small shocks lower in Russian markets and in the Ruble, things have stabilized relatively quickly – except now, Russia has used the opportunity to make clear that they do not want to be participants in the global fiat system any longer.

And now it looks like China (and likely India) feels similarly situated.

When the US announced that it was seizing Russian-owned FX reserves, it sent a message that _any _USD FX assets were no longer safe.

This has propelled the need to find an alternative monetary system – and it seems Russia and China could be leading the charge to create a new gold and commodity-backed multilateral currency system.

If you are China, and you produce everything that the US uses – and if you are Russia, and your produce a meaningful amount of energy – then the question is how long do you sit back and take it as you watch the US-run its reckless monetary programs.

I think we’re finding out…

What Russia realizes is that it still has the oil – it’s needed.

The potential for this is the world becomes divided between those that have assets (like gold and other commodities) and those that do not.

Should the perception of the USD change, there could be an alarming disruption to the American lifestyle.

As this chart shows, the US produces less and less relative to its consumption.




What will the US trade for if not USD?

When the dollar is viewed in terms of gold prices, we get a much different view of the value.




What this chart demonstrates is the degree of monetary debasement relative to gold.

Given the amount of monetary inflation, gold would need to be $42,000 per ounce to get to the 1980 peak of 55%% coverage of M1.

*As I wish to stress again… we are facing a period of incredible change. *

And nothing could be more disruptive than a change in the global demand for payments that favor those countries with hard assets versus those without.


While how this plays out is far from certain, it appears for the first time in decades that we have entered a period of competition against the USD as the premier currency.


----------



## Student of Gann

There are four dates outlined on the Curve - The first date is the 18th May and if trend continues down into this date and holds above that point we could setup for Low with trend up till X for counter trend Top then down into X where Main Low is indicated . As we approach these turning dates the pattern of trend leading into these points should allow us to determine if the market is either setting up for Top or Bottom into these dates and then once the Cycle has been verified we can then trade in the prevailing direction of the market with a time based stop in place under the Cycle Low .


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

And a golden week begins. 

Sun is shining, birds are chirping, down to breakfast and await the market's opening. 

POG for us tied to AUD/USD as much as anything else. 




gg


----------



## ducati916

Some long term charts:





jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I tell you those London bedwetters will be the end of me. 

POG took quite a tumble just an hour ago. 





gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I guess the market is always correct. 

A strong USD is the main cause from what I'm hearing and its outshouting inflationary concerns. 

When do the yahoos in India and China start their festivals where the POG goes up for belly buttons and belly button rings?



gg


----------



## DaveTrade

All my indicators are still down for GLD but I _feel_ it will bounce before the end of the week. Maybe the next bounce will be a market turn.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

DaveTrade said:


> All my indicators are still down for GLD but I _feel_ it will bounce before the end of the week. Maybe the next bounce will be a market turn.



Join the club, but we may be wrong. 

But, we have a position on POG. 

My problem is I'm trading POG and AUD/USD together when I trade POG. 

gg


----------



## DaveTrade

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My problem is I'm trading POG and AUD/USD together when I trade POG



Yes I think that the $AUS-USD is about to bouce but is still in a down trend.


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I guess the market is always correct.
> 
> A strong USD is the main cause from what I'm hearing and its outshouting inflationary concerns.
> 
> When do the yahoos in India and China start their festivals where the POG goes up for belly buttons and belly button rings?
> 
> View attachment 141767
> 
> gg



 for India  the wedding season is VERY important for gold ( there is a tradition of gold gifts for the brides ) ( to the extent gold is smuggled to fill the needs  when the leaders felt the need to ban the import of physical gold )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

divs4ever said:


> for India  the wedding season is VERY important for gold ( there is a tradition of gold gifts for the brides ) ( to the extent gold is smuggled to fill the needs  when the leaders felt the need to ban the import of physical gold )



Are we coming up to wedding season and festival season?

Years ago the POG used rise then. 

Or maybe they don't now get married or worship anything apart from the rupee and yuan..

gg


----------



## divs4ever

well the US price  is obviously manipulated  , but what about the underlying demand , is that demand still robust ??


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> well the US price  is obviously manipulated  , but what about the underlying demand , is that demand still robust ??



Took me a month to get physical ordered 01/04 available....
20 to 25% oremium to official price..i somehow doubt it is just the reseller premium...


----------



## Sean K

This one month chart is  for gold bugs. In AUD it's only off $40 though...

I thought there might have been $100 in war premium built in and perhaps some uncertainty on inflation and interest rate rises. Hard to tell what the market is pricing in with inflation/rates/USD. 

Or, it's all just JP Morgan playing with us.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un

divs4ever said:


> well the US price  is obviously manipulated  , but what about the underlying demand , is that demand still robust ??



I had 50k on Gold mid last year during that run. It dropped so I made the Rookie mistake of dropping another 50k in. Then it plummetted. The dumping of "paper Gold" apparently.


----------



## divs4ever

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> I had 50k on Gold mid last year during that run. It dropped so I made the Rookie mistake of dropping another 50k in. Then it plummetted. The dumping of "paper Gold" apparently.



 remember 'gold ' is competing with the US Dollars ( and US Treasury Bonds)  and guess who  intends to borrow  huge sums of currency ( requiring the issue of piles of Treasury bonds , close to face value )

 so UNTIL the US Dollar  loses reserve currency status  , the US Dollar ( and Treasury Bonds ) SEEM to be safest liquid investment on the planet 

 now a lot of ( physical ) gold and silver  buffs think differently  ( where the global economy collapses  , gold/silver  will still be acceptable  to folks selling food , and fuel etc etc  

 electronic currencies will be near useless if no electricity/internet 

 of course gold/silver kept close  ( at home )  have there own issues


----------



## Telamelo

US Gold price up about $20 thus far @ $1,834  (didn't stay below $1,800 for long as think it briefly nudged $1,792 or thereabouts)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> US Gold price up about $20 thus far @ $1,834  (didn't stay below $1,800 for long as think it briefly nudged $1,792 or thereabouts)



Indeed. 

I had a beautiful walk along the Ross River yesterday evening on sunset and the water was a rich golden with the setting sun. 

I said to meself, that is an omen. 

I may start buying more PMGOLD again today. I do hope the AUD behaves itself. 

gg


----------



## divs4ever

i was hoping for some extra EVN today 

 but so far the indications  look like i will be disappointed


----------



## Telamelo

divs4ever said:


> i was hoping for some extra EVN today
> 
> but so far the indications  look like i will be disappointed



Was hoping to get more TUL myself below 0.55c but seems I've missed out


----------



## divs4ever

Telamelo said:


> Was hoping to get more TUL myself below 0.55c but seems I've missed out



it's early yet 

 let's see if they dump shares and rush for bonds


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It is difficult with Gold atm. 

My gut tells me to go all in. So many people are predicting a collapse. 

USD/AUD and USD pricing and charts all sound caution. 

I'll have a glass of 1951 Penfolds Grange and think about it. 

gg


----------



## DaveTrade

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'll have a glass of 1951 Penfolds Grange and think about it.



Very nice wine.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is difficult with Gold atm.
> 
> My gut tells me to go all in. So many people are predicting a collapse.
> 
> USD/AUD and USD pricing and charts all sound caution.
> 
> I'll have a glass of 1951 Penfolds Grange and think about it.
> 
> gg



Well, with an hour to go before the Gentry in London sell Gold down, unless something dreadful happens I think I'll continue sipping and have a look tomorrow. 

gg


----------



## eskys

NST and EVN are trying to turn the corner, and others wanting to get out


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I doubt if $US1800 will hold, $1750 may provide support. 




gg


----------



## eskys

Don't say that, gg, tell them to hold for me, thanks. I got in today


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

eskys said:


> Don't say that, gg, tell them to hold for me, thanks. I got in today



I do believe Gold will go through $US2000 soon, just not yet. 

London is always profit taking, just don't look at the price until tomorrow. 

Poms, eh. 

gg


----------



## eskys

Greed and hope got the better of me........sold and bought back, second lot too close to purchase price...will wait for the verdict tomorrow, either a reward or a kick in the back....have a great evening, gg, everyone..........


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well, with an hour to go before the Gentry in London sell Gold down, unless something dreadful happens I think I'll continue sipping and have a look tomorrow.
> 
> gg




Something has gone wrong here. So far...


----------



## Telamelo

I think Gold is going to shine tonight


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Something has gone wrong here. So far...
> 
> View attachment 141880





Telamelo said:


> I think Gold is going to shine tonight



I saw that. Quite interesting.

Let us hope it continues overnight.

I'd actually feel more comfortable entering now over $US1825, or tomorrow than before our close today, as we have a higher low and a higher high after a persisting downtrend on the chart.

Fortune shines hopefully on those who entered today.







gg

ps I bought some a bit higher $AUD2658 so I'm winning back some of my losings.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'll have a glass of 1951 Penfolds Grange and think about it.
> 
> gg



Then pour it out? Corked?


----------



## divs4ever

WAR AS A PRETEXT FOR MASSIVE FISCAL AND MONETARY STIMULUS.​


 includes a comment about Russia selling gas for gold 

 it was probably a troll ( by some official  , BUT )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> Then pour it out? Corked?



Slowly finished over the evening. 

I'm not much of a wine expert. It was a good drop. 

I picked a couple up at the St. George Club ( Western Queensland ) where I was a member for $7 a bottle in my cotton pickin' days back in the late 70's.  They spent a long time in storage in a mate's wine cellar along Kingsford Smith Dr. in Brisbane with his two, they were said to be rare at the time. 

gg


----------



## divs4ever

THE PRICE OF GOLD DOES NOT REFLECT ITS VALUE - JAMES WEST #5507


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> THE PRICE OF GOLD DOES NOT REFLECT ITS VALUE - JAMES WEST #5507




Pog up...but aud tracking....


----------



## noirua

Gold price on 'cusp' of $2k rally, here's how not to miss it – Bloomberg Intelligence
Anna Golubova 
Wednesday May 11, 2022 17:50
Https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-05-11/Gold-price-on-cusp-of-2k-rally-here-s-how-not-to-miss-it-Bloomberg-Intelligence.html​​


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> Gold price on 'cusp' of $2k rally, here's how not to miss it – Bloomberg Intelligence
> Anna Golubova
> Wednesday May 11, 2022 17:50
> Https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-05-11/Gold-price-on-cusp-of-2k-rally-here-s-how-not-to-miss-it-Bloomberg-Intelligence.html​​



I've never met Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence quoted by Anna Golubova, but his opinions like those of us all are self serving. 

Like Mike, I believe Fed tightening will lead to a fall in the stock market but not a bear market, and curb spending, and thus inflation. 

I would strongly disagree with his idea of pairing Gold with Bitcoin. I'm with Warren Buffet on BTC. It's a Norwegian Blue. 

And Gold will go over $US2000 oz and stay above it. When is the question and the USD vs World Currencies will be a factor in my adding to my hoard unless it moves quickly. 

gg


----------



## signalFollower

here's some data for the Physical Buullion backs ETPs traded on the ASX under the ETF Securities banner.

each one of the PM offerrings show consistent demand for bullion ounces being held, and given the economic uncertainty going forward, I don't see this backing off

this data is actual ounces held per precious metal, apart from the Wall Street Silver period, there hasn't really been any signs of people taking their cash out and triggering a need for physical bullion holdings to be unwound


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I picked a couple up at the St. George Club ( Western Queensland ) where I was a member for $7 a bottle in my cotton pickin' days back in the late 70's.  They spent a long time in storage in a mate's wine cellar along Kingsford Smith Dr. in Brisbane with his two, they were said to be rare at the time.



was passing through St George this midday, so I thought I'd try my luck. On my way South, a contra-flow and trying to avoid the Newell with its Jayco's from Mentone on their way North, lights on high beam and not concentrating as they sing along to Skyhooks. ...South, because, as Joni sang, "_I need the wind and seek the cold "_.

Lo and behold, after googling "6 Things to do in St George", I discovered the *club *has morphed. A carpark full of Winnebagos and Carnages, the valet parking person sniffily said the new 2-hatted dining experience _Chez Apocryphe _was booked out till spring, that a hot young Cornwall chef was said to be doing exciting things with _consommé_ _à la Japonaise_, mumbled something about it being a new clear fusion food experience. I didn't understand. Even the off-license was off-limits. He directed me to the local caff, recommended Fish of the Month, but it's the 20th; I don't think so. Will try my luck in Dirranbandi.

Oh, and yes, Gold. It's time.



> “This is an unusual inflationary environment. We've seen inflation from 20% to 30% increases, I mean, across virtually every input”



_- Donnie King, CEO, Tyson Foods Inc [one of the world’s largest food companies]_


----------



## eskys

Price of gold is still holding....dropped briefly after open but fighting back now


----------



## eskys

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Slowly finished over the evening.
> 
> I'm not much of a wine expert. It was a good drop.
> 
> I picked a couple up at the St. George Club ( Western Queensland ) where I was a member for $7 a bottle in my cotton pickin' days back in the late 70's.  They spent a long time in storage in a mate's wine cellar along Kingsford Smith Dr. in Brisbane with his two, they were said to be rare at the time.
> 
> gg



GG drunk a dinasaur drop....a whole bottle of it! Do you know how much that cost, gg?

Recork the other bottle and keep it for your 100th birthday!


----------



## divs4ever

but did GG  enjoy it ??

 that is all that counts


----------



## signalFollower

signalFollower said:


> here's some data for the Physical Buullion backs ETPs traded on the ASX under the ETF Securities banner.
> 
> each one of the PM offerrings show consistent demand for bullion ounces being held, and given the economic uncertainty going forward, I don't see this backing off
> 
> this data is actual ounces held per precious metal, apart from the Wall Street Silver period, there hasn't really been any signs of people taking their cash out and triggering a need for physical bullion holdings to be unwound
> 
> View attachment 141922



I should add, that the flow of funds into bullion backed ETPs has been a continual thing since Q2 2019

so as an indicator of the preference for bullion, continued sentiment in this regard (or even an increase of it by investors who have recenlty been burned by the stock market and crytpo declines), should see further support for all precious metal prices, so yes gold will be supported going forward

and what happens when interest rates can't control inflation ?, more of the same IMO but my exposure to gold is via late stage explorers / mine developers


----------



## Sean K

Bouncing up towards $1850, but London is about to saddle up.


----------



## Sean K

Sean K said:


> Bouncing up towards $1850, but London is about to saddle up.
> 
> View attachment 141937




And they're off....


----------



## againsthegrain

Now gg needs to refill the bottle with cheap wine, recork it and keep for a occasion when he has some wealthy guests to impress


----------



## Sean K

againsthegrain said:


> Now gg needs to refill the bottle with cheap wine, recork it and keep for a occasion when he has some wealthy guests to impress



A 389 or a St Henri and no one would know.


----------



## DaveTrade

Sean K said:


> A 389 or a St Henri and no one would know.



 I like the 389 better than Grange and St Henri's not a bad drop.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

One of the problems, not really a problem, but a factor is that Gold is priced in USD and I'm buying in AUD. 

Both are moving in a reasonable range and Gold I am sure is about to break up over $US2000, moving together though magnifies the move or can increase or decrease gains or losses..

I do have lots of gold in bar and of late thanks to ASF posters as PMGOLD. It seems a more civilised way to keep it. 

Now my expectation is that Wall St. will not crash tonight and some bedwetters will push the price of Gold down, and I can then review my next buy on Monday. 

I nearly bought more at $AUD2616 this morning but elected not to. It is now trading lower in AUD but a tad up in USD.

So there is no rush, and anyone who is in will win imo. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> One of the problems, not really a problem, but a factor is that Gold is priced in USD and I'm buying in AUD.
> gg



Currency moves are a consequence, not an underlying factor.

But it does make it more complicated.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> I like the 389 better than Grange and St Henri's not a bad drop.




With the risk of diverting the gold thread to red wine, my conversion to red over beer and cask white was in 1994 when I bought what seemed to be an incredibly expensive St Henri at 16 bucks, which I recall back then was called a Claret.


----------



## Telamelo

G


Sean K said:


> With the risk of diverting the gold thread to red wine, my conversion to red over beer and cask white was in 1994 when I bought what seemed to be an incredibly expensive St Henri at 16 bucks, which I recall back then was called a Claret.



Gold thread is much better with wine involved lol haha 

It's become my favourite thread here on ASF


----------



## againsthegrain

Telamelo said:


> G
> 
> Gold thread is much better with wine involved lol haha
> 
> It's become my favourite thread here on ASF



+gold
+wine
+roulette

The real gentleman's civilised playground


----------



## Dona Ferentes

BYOG ...

_Buy your own Gold_, or _Bring your own Grange_?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> BYOG ...
> 
> _Buy your own Gold_, or _Bring your own Grange_?



DYOR

Drink your own red. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

All jokes apart and with great respect to ASF members who are in to Bitcoin, I would see a collapse in BTC and Crypto as an event that would propel Gold well above $US2000 and a base forming there for years with sallies up and down to $USD2500-USD3000. 

Just my thoughts when I consider buying gold. 

As I say there is no rush. 

gg


----------



## eskys

Gold is just holding........wonder if it will

Divs,  easier to google option expiry and get it. ASX also has it...I'll try  and see if it works through the forum.............have a great weekend, everyone


----------



## eskys

Expiry calendar
					

Expiry dates for options, LEPOs and futures contracts.




					www2.asx.com.au


----------



## divs4ever

eskys said:


> Gold is just holding........wonder if it will
> 
> Divs,  easier to google option expiry and get it. ASX also has it...I'll try  and see if it works through the forum.............have a great weekend, everyone



 i don't actually trade options , just like to be aware  of expiry dates in case of unusual moves  ( say, somebody  takes an oversize position in oil )

 cheers


----------



## eskys

I don't trade options either, divs, goodnight


----------



## Telamelo

For anyone interested in ASX options  - I suggest the following



			https://www.ozstockstats.com/company-option/all/


----------



## divs4ever

eskys said:


> I don't trade options either, divs, goodnight



good luck   ,  and happy dreams


----------



## sptrawler

I think a lot of people are banking on gold becoming a standard to underpin currencies again, what I wonder about that is, how do you compensate countries that dont produce gold and regulate those that do?
I think with computer technology today a fiat system tied to digital currency is more likely, but just my thoughts.


----------



## divs4ever

if i had gold or silver , i would be using it as a parallel ( or supplement ) to a barter system 

 what if they can't keep the power supply reliable ( try using digital currency but only in ' off-peak hours ' )


----------



## divs4ever

Andy Schectman warns Mike Adams: The dollar DIES when energy exporters ABANDON the petrodollar status

https://www.brighteon.com/34fd03ad-5aeb-42aa-ae78-c697872a6830

 a wide-ranging video  , touches on several currency ( and crypto ) topics


----------



## qldfrog

sptrawler said:


> I think a lot of people are banking on gold becoming a standard to underpin currencies again, what I wonder about that is, how do you compensate countries that dont produce gold and regulate those that do?
> I think with computer technology today a fiat system tied to digital currency is more likely, but just my thoughts.



Why compensate?
Does not really matter if you produce gold or not..
Work creates gold from mining there but the next country will barter(buy) that gold against fish, computers, cars..whatever.
No change from current situation

What a gold back currency creates is a currency system which is  representative of your actual economic output.
You can not hide a basket case economy behind an historical or political pretence..aka USD Euro current situation 
Having local gold mines does not change anything as long as the metal market is open.


----------



## noirua

20 May 2022


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Due to the present pandemic and need for so many bits of apps and paper to travel from Townsville to Davos, not to mention all the waiting in First Class Lounges, I have decided to forego that fest of fools and instead meditate on the markets, particularly commodities, and gold especially.

The big problem that I have with gold is that I am sure it will go well above $US2000 oz, but the problem is when. 

Now we are in a time of war, pestilence, plague and famine in many parts of the world. These factors throughout history have necessitated rulers to dip in to their treasuries for Gold to pay for arms, men and equipment to vanquish their foes and rob their treasury in turn. 

Gold is in limited supply, I am told one swimming pool full, which I find hard to believe, but it is rare, moveable, buryable ( is that a word ? ) and I am told fungible ( whatever that means ? I thought it only applied to mushrooms ).

Some of the machinery of war that I see getting blown up on twitter costs upwards of $100m. Each one. That is a lot of deficits to run up and of course arms suppliers do not work on debt. 

So there will be a transfer of gold from the battling nations and their allies to the arms making nations, and on down the chain. 

I reckon we are about 25% through this war, with a good amount of arms to be bought and sold and some treasuries about to increase supply to pay for it. There being only one swimming pool for these budgie smuggling nations to dip in to or out of, it would appear to this simple soul that the price will appreciate. 

So the rise in POG will be soon.

So I am buying more. 

btw. If you should ever get an invite to Davos avoid the Hotel Waldhuus. The last time I was there it was a tad damp, it caters for children which is a nono for me, and it is too far to walk to the action and one must wait forever for a taxi. The Hard Rock Hotel is best. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

On the chart above I can see little resistance at $USD1900, but some at $USD1950. After that it is anybody's guess. $USD2000 as a number will resist some.

Downside if there is a miracle and nations and people start practising their Godbothering chants and tropes and behave with some couth towards each other, $USD1775-1825 looks like a reasonable base.

Although the AUD/USD will play some havoc with profits or losses for Aussie buyers in $AUD.

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some of the machinery of war that I see getting blown up on twitter costs upwards of $100m. Each one. That is a lot of deficits to run up and of course arms suppliers do not work on debt.
> 
> So there will be a transfer of gold from the battling nations and their allies to the arms making nations, and on down the chain.
> 
> gg



You might be better buying the likes of Raytheon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin.
They will be the major beneficiaries of the $40bill emergency war package for Ukraine.
Mick


----------



## signalFollower

the data continues to show that funds keep flowing into the bullion backed ETPs and therefore the ounces of bullion held per precious metal is on the increase

I for one, beleive this is inidicative of the wider investment community and their desire for bullion so that equates to demand increase and taking supply out and into storage


----------



## signalFollower

this is quite an interesting and clear interview from Stansberry Research


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> You might be better buying the likes of Raytheon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin.
> They will be the major beneficiaries of the $40bill emergency war package for Ukraine.
> Mick



no joy with BIS ( in the tipping this month )  i would have thought armor-plating+ steel  would have at least kept me in positive territory


----------



## divs4ever

signalFollower said:


> this is quite an interesting and clear interview from Stansberry Research




 yep , and that is why i  like gold and gold stocks  , less sharks it that pool


----------



## Student of Gann

Gold update  containing three important turning dates extending out towards the end of June . If we continue moving higher we could see counter trend Top into the 30th May then down till the X June where main Low is indicated then back up till the X June for another Top . I have calculated three important prices to watch and if we continue to move higher and the market demonstrates that it is setting up for Top into the 30th May we should be able to refine these targets down further . 
Complete Forecast available at studentofgann.com.au
Student of Gann twitter


----------



## signalFollower

thoughts ?

to me this suggests we're at the inflexion point where businesses and households will start to soon feel the effects of interest rates and any contractionary effects to flow on from that

except this time, there's a stack more debt being held by most participants


----------



## qldfrog

signalFollower said:


> thoughts ?
> 
> to me this suggests we're at the inflexion point where businesses and households will start to soon feel the effects of interest rates and any contractionary effects to flow on from that
> 
> except this time, there's a stack more debt being held by most participants
> 
> View attachment 142166



If IR are high,why not move to cash?
Gold after all is just a lump of metal and does not return anything.
The real issue is trust.
Trust in government and their fiat currencies.
I personally have lost that trust and so am a gold bull, but if the average punter is believing there is a good vs evil war in Ukraine, is lining up for his 4th covid shot and believe that he will solve CC by driving an EV as he is being told..then gold will fall or underperform.


----------



## rederob

sptrawler said:


> I think a lot of people are banking on gold becoming a standard to underpin currencies again, what I wonder about that is, how do you compensate countries that dont produce gold and regulate those that do?
> I think with computer technology today a fiat system tied to digital currency is more likely, but just my thoughts.



An EM pulse - whether nuclear or solar - can remove the "1" from crypto currencies' digital *0* and *1* logic structure, so that they have *zero* value, and return to the crypts whence they came.
For that reason alone sovereign nations need tangible "stores of wealth" to ensure they can ride through the most dire situations and have a credible means of financing trade at every level.

As to where gold is headed, we see the medium term trend (back to March 2021's low) fully intact as bullish:


However, mid-February's breakout returned to earth a fortnight ago and needs to maintain plus$1850s if we want follow through momentum.
Clearly pandemic issues affecting global supply chains, chip shortages, high oil prices, inflationary pressures, global food insecurity, and a war in Ukraine that seems to be settling-in, are throwing more spanners into the works that can be accounted for in diving POG's future.


----------



## signalFollower

qldfrog said:


> If IR are high,why not move to cash?
> Gold after all is just a lump of metal and does not return anything.
> The real issue is trust.
> Trust in government and their fiat currencies.
> I personally have lost that trust and so am a gold bull, but if the average punter is believing there is a good vs evil war in Ukraine, is lining up for his 4th covid shot and believe that he will solve CC by driving an EV as he is being told..then gold will fall or underperform.



this one touches on systemic manipulation and mistrust of the Federal Reserve, Frank Giustra also goes on to give his views of gold prices longer term - interesting


----------



## Student of Gann

If we get counter trend Top into the 30th May the three key price levels to watch are 1879  1882  and  1894 .  After this point trend should continue down into the X June where main Low is indicated .


----------



## DaveTrade

Student of Gann said:


> If we get counter trend Top into the 30th May the three key price levels to watch are 1879  1882  and  1894 .  After this point trend should continue down into the X June where main Low is indicated .



Hope this forecast works out, there are a lot of people waiting for the final low.


----------



## rederob

I have mapped a breakout area in the purple box, below.  It's the region above POG's price as it broke above an earlier pennant formation, and we should have expected more follow through than we got:


Getting back into the purple patch is proving more difficult than most pundits forecast and, as you can see below, the recently more-favourable AUD denominated POG (*orange line*) has all but disappeared:


----------



## Telamelo

rederob said:


> I have mapped a breakout area in the purple box, below.  It's the region above POG's price as it broke above an earlier pennant formation, and we should have expected more follow through than we got:
> View attachment 142339
> 
> Getting back into the purple patch is proving more difficult than most pundits forecast and, as you can see below, the recently more-favourable AUD denominated POG has all but disappeared:
> View attachment 142343



Thanks for the charts.. Gold a "waiting game of patience" at the moment. 
Cheers tela


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rederob said:


> I have mapped a breakout area in the purple box, below.  It's the region above POG's price as it broke above an earlier pennant formation, and we should have expected more follow through than we got:
> View attachment 142339
> 
> Getting back into the purple patch is proving more difficult than most pundits forecast and, as you can see below, the recently more-favourable AUD denominated POG (*orange line*) has all but disappeared:
> View attachment 142343



Thanks @rederob 

I can see Gold paddling along in USD for a while longer, up a bit, down a bit, continuing this consolidation before a significant breakout above $US2200 with a base then for future "peace" and fiscal and monetary "stability" and "no covid nor pox" and the Chinese cousins deciding that hegemony is "yesterday" and the Pacific Islanders not "floating" above their palm trees, and, and ...  at $US2000 

Though for traders in Gold in AUD there is a real danger of significant losses from the strengthening AUD combined with low swings in Gold.

This would apply to Gold stocks as well with loss of time/production due to everything from supply chain to workers being gobbled up by coal producers before the Green Publican at AGL calls time with the ALP on the black gold. 

For longer term investors in Gold however and those seeking insurance against an apparently cruel world, Gold is cheap imo both in USD and in AUD.

gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Though for traders in Gold in AUD there is a real danger of significant losses from the strengthening AUD combined with low swings in Gold.



I agree on that point.
I was also surprised when I drew up the chart indexing AUD and USD denominated POG as the swings each month were significant.
As to the Green Publican, we need to look closely at mining costs and the diesel subsidy, because if that goes then our little Aussie battlers are going to need to spend a heck of a lot more to get gold out of stone.  Or they could take the smart route and go electric with their mining fleets and source renewables plus storage for their energy needs.

(Do we need to change the sexist term "Brownie points" to greenie points?)


----------



## mullokintyre

The COT report from last week showed a big jump in long gold positions, up 5600 to a total of 122,000.
The short positions on the other hand, dropped by 12,000  contracts to 60,000.


That should be a little bullish for gold.
Mick


----------



## signalFollower

qldfrog said:


> If IR are high,why not move to cash?
> Gold after all is just a lump of metal and does not return anything.
> The real issue is trust.
> Trust in government and their fiat currencies.
> I personally have lost that trust and so am a gold bull, but if the average punter is believing there is a good vs evil war in Ukraine, is lining up for his 4th covid shot and believe that he will solve CC by driving an EV as he is being told..then gold will fall or underperform.



this one also touches on the trust (or waining of it rather) in the USD as a driver for gold reserve demands (and therfor price) continuing

the visual is one thing, but the wording they put around it is equally interesting

https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...o0wrVQmLJ_FmEH8MTWZgfDLfHz6gapLOKDDcjFGiUnjug


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

signalFollower said:


> this one also touches on the trust (or waining of it rather) in the USD as a driver for gold reserve demands (and therfor price) continuing
> 
> the visual is one thing, but the wording they put around it is equally interesting
> 
> https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...o0wrVQmLJ_FmEH8MTWZgfDLfHz6gapLOKDDcjFGiUnjug
> 
> 
> View attachment 142354



Thanks @signalFollower .

Further, that is only the declared amount of gold held by central banks. 

Governments are notorious liars, they are devious, untrustworthy and soiled with the blood of their young men in wars and their unfed poor. 

Nobody and no government honestly states what their gold reserves are at any one time. 

Except for the Canadians, who sold all theirs, and that I would believe as they are Canadians and pure as bloody snow. 



gg


----------



## mullokintyre

signalFollower said:


> this one also touches on the trust (or waining of it rather) in the USD as a driver for gold reserve demands (and therfor price) continuing
> 
> the visual is one thing, but the wording they put around it is equally interesting
> 
> https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...o0wrVQmLJ_FmEH8MTWZgfDLfHz6gapLOKDDcjFGiUnjug
> 
> 
> View attachment 142354



Of course this does not include non CB holdings of gold.
India is a country where its citizens value personal holdings of gold, I have been told China is similar.
The  Yanks could easily increase their reserve holdings by  reprising the Roosevelt edicts from the 1930's.
Actually, i guess any government  could do a Roosevelt should they feel so inclined.
Mick


----------



## signalFollower

agreed, we are in a period where the appetite for gold (and likely dilution of the dominance of the USD petrodollar) is playing out

yeah reading about the US govtmaking it illegal for citizens to hold beyond a certain amount of gold back in the day was interesting, my take out was that honesty didn't pay for the every day person there who would certainly have been better to keep their holdings illegally.

But as a barometer for non-CB demand, that's why I also look at data representative of the retail / investor end of the demand too, being this bullion backed ETPs data, which last week showed Gold as the only bullion holdings increasing accross the PMs


----------



## Telamelo

Gold price been so disappointing of late trading lower tonight @ US $1,827 equivalent to AUD $2,541


----------



## eskys

Gold is up $3tonight according to investing.com. Hope it goes up further more


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sometimes there is too much information, on different factors affecting the price of gold, POG.

War, famine, pestilence, plague, politicians, worldwide criminal enterprises, other financial sectors, and the poor of the world getting married faraway in India and China, all affect the supply, exchange and the POG.

How does a simpleton such as I make sense of all this living in Australia and holding Australian dollars to pay for food, shelter, cigars and champagne. 

There are two questions.

Should one hold Gold in a portfolio and how much.
How does one value appropriately the POG given so many factors in the second para above.
There is no answer to the first question, it is personal preference. I run scared having been poor, but never destitute. Destitute is not good, I've witnessed it in others. It is too close to poor for me.

The second question makes money for hawkers of YouTube, financial pamphlets, TV programs and "professional" pundits. It is very confusing and as nobody can predict the future basically unanswerable. 

I go on two factors.

The vibe.
The AUD/USD exchange rate.
As to the vibe. For some reason last month I felt concerned about the world, the markets, climate change and the muppets about me who make up that world, so I had to make the decision on whether to go to cash and buy a mansion (post the rate rise) some 500m. back from the beachfront without a seaview and await the rising tide so that I could end my days looking at the waves lapping upon the shore with steps down to a jetty and a small boat in which to fish from. I instead decided to increase my Gold holdings and do nothing else. 

Gold is insurance, always has been. Crypto and even our markets could turn chaotic if our communications and IT fell apart. I am even on my Gold purchases so far but reckon that even with a downturn it will cost me less than insuring my house in percentage terms. Particularly as the AUD, I believe will not appreciate. Particularly if one looks at the AUD/USD chart over the last 10 years. Any kerfuffle and the Aussie drops. 




gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sometimes there is too much information, on different factors affecting the price of gold, POG.
> 
> Gold is insurance, always has been.
> 
> gg



That's gold. 🏆


----------



## eskys

I didn't know until now that gg and I have some things in common after all....I go with sentiment, by what I can see in order for me to make a judgement, not focused on inflation, interest rates, war etc . Where we differ is, I don't think gold is now a hedge

Sold NST this morning before leaving to deliver a meal. While on the road, I thought there's been a lot of noise around us and we can be easily distracted if we aren't focused on our work (ie trading, investing)


----------



## eskys

I accidentally posted the above without finishing my post...........so the rest goes....I don't want a mansion. I would like a small cottage by the river or near a river up north to retire, with a pontoon to watch the fish or catch them as a challenge (strange I should want to be near a river since we were recently flooded to the roof in the Northern Rivers recently)


----------



## eskys

The other thing I forgot to say is...........I don't have the amount of money gg has, no cigars, plenty of grog but I don't drink them


----------



## divs4ever

eskys said:


> I accidentally posted the above without finishing my post...........so the rest goes....I don't want a mansion. I would like a small cottage by the river or near a river up north to retire, with a pontoon to watch the fish or catch them as a challenge (strange I should want to be near a river since we were recently flooded to the roof in the Northern Rivers recently)



 maybe you really need a house-boat then


----------



## divs4ever

eskys said:


> The other thing I forgot to say is...........I don't have the amount of money gg has, no cigars, plenty of grog but I don't drink them



 grog can be trade-able in tough times  , also STRONG spirits have other uses  , for rural folk .


----------



## eskys

To keep on thread.....yes, divs, grog is gold, especially when a bottle fetches over $200,000! But no houseboats, thanks.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

eskys said:


> I didn't know until now that gg and I have some things in common after all....I go with sentiment, by what I can see in order for me to make a judgement, not focused on inflation, interest rates, war etc . Where we differ is, I don't think gold is now a hedge
> 
> Sold NST this morning before leaving to deliver a meal. While on the road, I thought there's been a lot of noise around us and we can be easily distracted if we aren't focused on our work (ie trading, investing)



Thanks @eskys and all others for the kind response to my post from this morning. 

I should point out that I have a different perspective on Gold stocks than Gold bar. I'm not all that familiar with trading/investing in NST so I'll use GOR vs PMGOLD. 

I was heavily in to GOR last year and sold out six or eight weeks ago because Gold stocks are looking too far forward and are subject to the vagaries of mining, as well as POG they committed to and the present POG. They have past decisions and forward assumptions in their price. 

So I switched to Gold bar as it is immediate and responsive to current events, and current events are changing very quickly, and as I said above Gold bar is a handy insurance, and cheap even if one is wrong.

gg


----------



## signalFollower

some interesting comments here and a Gold price prediction of $3000 USD by Jim Rickards

plus this is the article referred to in the screen grab


----------



## eskys

I thought about what you said about gold bars, gg. Thinking back to the early 80s when the Krugerrand was very popular (still very sought after these days) We bought some of those coins in our young green goose days, and at today's value, it's a fair bit now. Somehow, physical gold doesn't  hold an attraction anymore. Have stopped buying them and the account with Perth Mint has been dormant for years.

A better hedge I feel, is top notch commercial properties where the national tenants pay all outgoings. With interest rates notching up, I will keep my eyes on real estate. Please don't read this as advice, it's not........it's something I will do, keep an eye on property market and maybe, just maybe, something will pop up.

Today, I sense a disquiet in the market, and once again, I've lost my way. When I descend into one of these moods, I can no longer think (perhaps the sense of foreboding was heightened by the webinar this morning conducted by one of the four pillars)  Think I'll take time off and work at the warehouse tomorrow..........


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

eskys said:


> I thought about what you said about gold bars, gg. Thinking back to the early 80s when the Krugerrand was very popular (still very sought after these days) We bought some of those coins in our young green goose days, and at today's value, it's a fair bit now. Somehow, physical gold doesn't  hold an attraction anymore. Have stopped buying them and the account with Perth Mint has been dormant for years.
> 
> A better hedge I feel, is top notch commercial properties where the national tenants pay all outgoings. With interest rates notching up, I will keep my eyes on real estate. Please don't read this as advice, it's not........it's something I will do, keep an eye on property market and maybe, just maybe, something will pop up.
> 
> Today, I sense a disquiet in the market, and once again, I've lost my way. When I descend into one of these moods, I can no longer think (perhaps the sense of foreboding was heightened by the webinar this morning conducted by one of the four pillars)  Think I'll take time off and work at the warehouse tomorrow..........



It is interesting what you say re the market and I sold off a few of my SMSF "stayers but not great winners" today to release some money for the bargains to come. 

I too feel uneasy, and if I had a lock-up or warehouse I'd work there tomorrow too. 

As long as you are doing what you believe is correct given the available information, then "it is what it is".

It would not surprise me to see Gold bar go much, much higher. I would propose that you thought your Krugerrands were expensive in the 1980's. It is a beautiful coin.

Gold has been building up momentum. I guess commercial property depends on position, size and geographic location. I know many people in Townsville have been sitting on ComProp for 20 years going nowhere and others in Mackay just over 300 km. south of here have made a killing.

Anyways  it is only money.  

Unless the Russians stop drinking vodka and watching TV, Putin dies of whatever he has got, and the USA does not descend in to civil war in the next 5 years I cannot see Gold falling. 

gg

ps. I might treat myself to a few Proof KR, now that you mention it. The Aussie should be a bit higher tonight. 

gg


----------



## eskys

Gold unable to lift, every sector is in the red.

Going off thread......I wonder what sector of ComProp are those people in, gg? Like the market these days, sectors in Commercial properties need to chosen wisely....and length of tenancy, grade of tenants, rent turnover, depreciation etc...and as  you mentioned, location


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

eskys said:


> Gold unable to lift, every sector is in the red.
> 
> Going off thread......I wonder what sector of ComProp are those people in, gg? Like the market these days, sectors in Commercial properties need to chosen wisely....and length of tenancy, grade of tenants, rent turnover, depreciation etc...and as  you mentioned, location



Industrial, city fringes. Mining has sustained Mackay majorally over the last 20 years or so. 

Re. Gold. Its wobbling around $US1945 quite a bit atm., up a bit, down a bit and the $AUD recovered a bit after falling yesterday.

If the POG goes up tonight and the Aussie falls tonight after the US inflation figures come out, I reckon it will be much higher on Monday at the open in AUD. Gold doesn't trade over the w/e.

Probably wishful thinking, but its a mad, mad World out there atm. 

gg


----------



## eskys

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Industrial, city fringes. Mining has sustained Mackay majorally over the last 20 years or so.
> 
> Re. Gold. Its wobbling around $US1945 quite a bit atm., up a bit, down a bit and the $AUD recovered a bit after falling yesterday.
> 
> If the POG goes up tonight and the Aussie falls tonight after the US inflation figures come out, I reckon it will be much higher on Monday at the open in AUD. Gold doesn't trade over the w/e.
> 
> Probably wishful thinking, but its a mad, mad World out there atm.
> 
> gg




How does that work? If gold goes up and Aussie falls, gold shares will go up on Monday?

Yes, a bit wobbly, but it's early night, anything can happen. We can hope and dream. After all, good things come from dreaming, don't they? All the best anyway, I need it too. (Holding EVN and NST again, against my better judgement)

New warehouses with offices attached appear to be the in thing these days....I wont go too deep, you may not like it...going off thread


----------



## againsthegrain

eskys said:


> How does that work? If gold goes up and Aussie falls, gold shares will go up on Monday?
> 
> Yes, a bit wobbly, but it's early night, anything can happen. We can hope and dream. After all, good things come from dreaming, don't they? All the best anyway, I need it too. (Holding EVN and NST again, against my better judgement)
> 
> New warehouses with offices attached appear to be the in thing these days....I wont go too deep, you may not like it...going off thread




Probably because gold is valued in usd


----------



## Telamelo

Inflation running rampant in the US at +8%! triggered Dow to fall -800 pts 

Gold shining at US $1,876 equating to AUD $2,657 +2.02%


----------



## ducati916

eskys said:


> Gold unable to lift, every sector is in the red.
> 
> Going off thread......I wonder what sector of ComProp are those people in, gg? Like the market these days, sectors in Commercial properties need to chosen wisely....and length of tenancy, grade of tenants, rent turnover, depreciation etc...and as  you mentioned, location




The issue at hand world-wide is the survival of fiat currencies.

As such, commercial property in a fiat collapse is almost worthless. Agrarian property is what you would ideally want to look at. It is productive in commodities that will retain value.

Food for thought.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob

Updating my previous chart:
Average POG in 2022 to date is $1880.
Trend from March peak remains downward:


The "purple patch" is where POG has to remain if its to reach new highs.
Last night's US inflation data - over 8% - sent a signal to big money that they need a store of wealth that won't continue to burn value.
As @ducati suggests, *get physical*.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Re. Gold. Its wobbling around $US1945 quite a bit atm., up a bit, down a bit and the $AUD recovered a bit after falling yesterday.
> 
> If the POG goes up tonight and the Aussie falls tonight after the US inflation figures come out, I reckon it will be much higher on Monday at the open in AUD. Gold doesn't trade over the w/e.
> 
> gg



@rederob 

As I said just 12 hours ago the scene is set. I'd pull your "purple" patch bottom border down to support. 

It bears an amazing resemblance to a Wyckoff pattern of accumulation and may presage the breaking of resistance lines at $US2000.

And soon.




gg


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> @rederob
> 
> As I said just 12 hours ago the scene is set. I'd pull your "purple" patch bottom border down to support.
> 
> It bears an amazing resemblance to a Wyckoff pattern of accumulation and may presage the breaking of resistance lines at $US2000.
> 
> And soon.
> 
> View attachment 142756
> 
> 
> gg



If that's the case, we are at the gates of *Phase D.*
When I saw the gold bull signal emerge again in late 2019 I said from the outset we would be in for a bumpy ride.
That's the nature of POG as it has no single price driver at any particular point, and sheer sentiment creates some dramatic swings.
Cryptos undoubtedly took away a lot of gold's earlier gloss, and I suspect the "players" have powder dry to foster another fake run north.
One thing markets have proven time and again is that there is zero substitute for "value" and, in that regard, cryptos hold none - just an empty promise.


----------



## eskys

ducati916 said:


> The issue at hand world-wide is the survival of fiat currencies.
> 
> As such, commercial property in a fiat collapse is almost worthless. Agrarian property is what you would ideally want to look at. It is productive in commodities that will retain value.
> 
> Food for thought.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Hello ducati, food for thought indeed. I was thinking more in line about food related stocks, eg, Graincorp, Costa, Elders in this regard. Certainly hadn't thought about investing in farmland; certainly something worth thinking about, thank you


----------



## signalFollower

this is a great interview, it does go near Gold and the failing of the fiat currencies, pretty much predicting a significant break out in gold as more and more central banks look to sure up their balance sheets

certainly worth watching the whole thing

highlights:

Comex is breaking as a paper only market to "manage" the price of precious metals (refer below chart on increased physical deeliveries)
the USD is nearing the end of its Global Preferred Currency status
Central Banks to continue to sure up balance sheets
due to the coming commodities re-price, exposure via Junior mining sector is very attractive
Can the US hold onto World Super Power status ?


----------



## bk1

DXY returning to highs.


----------



## divs4ever

eskys said:


> How does that work? If gold goes up and Aussie falls, gold shares will go up on Monday?
> 
> Yes, a bit wobbly, but it's early night, anything can happen. We can hope and dream. After all, good things come from dreaming, don't they? All the best anyway, I need it too. (Holding EVN and NST again, against my better judgement)
> 
> New warehouses with offices attached appear to be the in thing these days....I wont go too deep, you may not like it...going off thread



 the ASX isn't trading on Monday


----------



## ducati916

eskys said:


> Hello ducati, food for thought indeed. I was thinking more in line about food related stocks, eg, Graincorp, Costa, Elders in this regard. Certainly hadn't thought about investing in farmland; certainly something worth thinking about, thank you




Taking it one step further, financial assets (stocks, bonds, derivatives, commodities) priced in fiat, also fall to zero. Clearly they retain value, but that value would need to be repriced in gold, silver, bitcoin, whatever. That is a risk that is assumed when buying/trading financial instruments.

Second, in a fiat crisis, it is a risk that bourses world-wide could be closed. Think WWI, Twin Towers.

I have recently, probably about a month ago, removed 90% of cash from various brokerages and put it into physical gold. I have been buying physical silver for about 18mths. on a weekly basis.

Trading is now simply with leverage (Options/Futures) so that the % returns are goosed on a far smaller capital base.

Today it is really all about: if you don't hold it, you don't own it.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

divs4ever said:


> the ASX isn't trading on Monday



Well it should. 

There is no holiday in Queensland nor Western Australia which contribute most to the wealth of of Australia, of all States and Territories. 

What a shocker. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Was the spike in POG overnight a direct response to inflation numbers, or USD moves, or did they move at the same time?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Was the spike in POG overnight a direct response to inflation numbers, or USD moves, or did they move at the same time?
> 
> View attachment 142770



All of the above imo. 

But mostly because of the vibe. 

China and Ukraine are in the background, and if I were the Chinese I'd take out Taiwan when nobody is looking coming up to the mid-terms in the Asylum of Barking known as the US of A. 

As for poor little me, I am very upset about the market not opening in Queensland on Monday. 

By Tuesday Gold could be much higher and Gold stocks may be ready for an upturn. 

gg


----------



## Captain_Chaza

I feel you are correct Gg
I would hate to be a Queen'slander in these days

When Gold goes up over 1% All hell breaks lose over in all sectors
There will be NOWHERE  else to Hide on MONDAY
See if you can organise an Online Broker! to get you out of the rest

RUN FOR SHELTER  is my only advice


----------



## Stockbailx

Notice where on page 666. So gold where is it heading? Looking at the XAU/USD chart it finished on a significant high, on the last hours of last week Friday. With indication on the weekly chart it has turned and started heading north as momentum has appeared to have turned bullish for the week. looking forward to it reaching highs of 2070.0 and possibly breaking that resistance level by the end of the month. If not the next couple of weeks being optimistic and a realist...


----------



## bluekelah

I wouldnt get too excited about POG yet. If FED is forced to hike faster, stocks will correct faster. As in march 2020 markets tanked 30% and gold corrected about 10%. I believe should fed do a 75 or 100point hike suddenly, markets could tank another 20% and gold will follow as gold is sold off to pay for margin calls. 

But yeah who knows, markets are a basketcase now, theres still a wall of money and it just depends where it goes. I do think that eventually like in the 1970s we will see gold do a 4x or 5x due to inflation and monetary debasement


----------



## Stockbailx

Fair call. Interesting prospective, looking at the negatives, may be to early to say but things look to be moving in a positive direction. Certainly expect some down turn early in terms of movement, but I'm hoping bullish momentum should carry on though for the month.
thinking of buying some lots on the next swing up? See how it pans out, but as you say it could well be exhausted...


----------



## bluekelah

Stockybailz said:


> Fair call. Interesting prospective, looking at the negatives, may be to early to say but things look to be moving in a positive direction. Certainly expect some down turn early in terms of movement, but I'm hoping bullish momentum should carry on though for the month.
> thinking of buying some lots on the next swing up? See how it pans out, but as you say it could well be exhausted...
> 
> View attachment 142829



I am not a technical short term trader but from what I head Gold was in a cup and handle pattern and was poised to breakout soon.

HIstorically gold has gone down with stocks in recession times as everything is sold down but does a big recovery when financial market condition somewhat improve (usually with some loosening of credit and when money printing starts.)

in addition, the "free markets" are a basket case now and theres a lot of manipulation going on with paper gold. So it really makes it hard to predict what happens next.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

bluekelah said:


> I am not a technical short term trader but from what I head Gold was in a cup and handle pattern and was poised to breakout soon.
> 
> HIstorically gold has gone down with stocks in recession times as everything is sold down but does a big recovery when financial market condition somewhat improve (usually with some loosening of credit and when money printing starts.)
> 
> in addition, the "free markets" are a basket case now and theres a lot of manipulation going on with paper gold. So it really makes it hard to predict what happens next.



The only people to my knowledge who trade on a cup and handle pattern are on hotcopper. From my knowledge of charting specialists attached to large funds the cup and handle is a bit of a joke as a set up. As is the shoe and sock, and the Amber and Johnny. 

Also with respect, gold does not go down with recessions, gold *stocks* do go down with the market, but not gold bar.

I would agree about the paper markets, though when all else about you are losing their heads, then is the time to make a profit. I see other people losing their heads and their money as opportunity.

gg


----------



## bluekelah

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The only people to my knowledge who trade on a cup and handle pattern are on hotcopper. From my knowledge of charting specialists attached to large funds the cup and handle is a bit of a joke as a set up. As is the shoe and sock, and the Amber and Johnny.
> 
> Also with respect, gold does not go down with recessions, gold *stocks* do go down with the market, but not gold bar.
> 
> I would agree about the paper markets, though when all else about you are losing their heads, then is the time to make a profit. I see other people losing their heads and their money as opportunity.
> 
> gg



you are right about gold going up during recessions. I should have said during start of recession gold can go down together with other assets as there is a general sell-off but yeah as the recession goes on, money will generally find its way to gold as investors look for a safe haven.

Along this line of reasoning, given the 99% surety that we are in a global recession + hyperinflation => Stagflation. Isnt it a no brainer to be hoarding gold as the price dips with crashing markets,  before everyone else tries to get it? I really dont see how the FED can dig its way out of both inflation and recession this time.


----------



## againsthegrain

Wonder where the money from digital gold is going


----------



## Sean K

againsthegrain said:


> Wonder where the money from digital gold is going




As in those who have just lost their shorts? Or, others on the side line waiting to deploy capital?


----------



## againsthegrain

Sean K said:


> As in those who have just lost their shorts? Or, others on the side line waiting to deploy capital?




The ones wearing jocks,  I am sure some whales are still in the green desperately tumbling down the fire escape as the lift is out of order.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

bluekelah said:


> you are right about gold going up during recessions. I should have said during start of recession gold can go down together with other assets as there is a general sell-off but yeah as the recession goes on, money will generally find its way to gold as investors look for a safe haven.
> 
> Along this line of reasoning, given the 99% surety that we are in a global recession + hyperinflation => Stagflation. Isnt it a no brainer to be hoarding gold as the price dips with crashing markets,  before everyone else tries to get it? I really dont see how the FED can dig its way out of both inflation and recession this time.



Thanks @bluekelah 

It depends on many fundamentals.

I believe it is a no-brainer  and have been accumulating Gold. I did sell my gold stocks when the market in the US started turning against my liking. 

Gold will appreciate if the war in Ukraine continues. It will be negative for Gold if one side wins decisively. 

Gold will appreciate if the Republicans win the mid-term elections, as we are looking at having the Bronze Loon Trump back in power and every proud boy between Maine and Monterey shooting children in class. 

Gold will appreciate in AUD as the USD strengthens, unless the Yuan becomes stronger as a possible global currency. 

Inflation will get worse and I see no reason why rates won't reach 10-12% as people in the West are conditioned to spend by the televisions and the internets. So the economy won't grow, people will still spend and the government will stop printing money.

And I will hold Gold which in a year or two which I believe will be well over $AUD4500 per oz.  

Oh and gold stocks, don't forget those, watch for an upturn but I don't believe myself it is yet. 

gg


----------



## Captain_Chaza

With Due Respect gg

*What is the use of GOLD?

ie: What is it good for?

Ie; Why would anybody want it?

There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!


*


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Sean K said:


> As in those who have just lost their shorts? Or, others on the side line waiting to deploy capital?



There was never ever Cash
No Cash!


----------



## againsthegrain

Captain_Chaza said:


> With Due Respect gg
> 
> *What is the use of GOLD?
> 
> ie: What is it good for?
> 
> Ie; Why would anybody want it?
> 
> There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!
> 
> View attachment 142841
> *




Nobody wants gold and money they just want the  hookers  happiness it buys


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Captain_Chaza said:


> With Due Respect gg
> 
> *What is the use of GOLD?
> 
> ie: What is it good for?
> 
> Ie; Why would anybody want it?
> 
> There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!
> 
> View attachment 142841
> *



To quote Publilus Syrus, whom I am sure you have heard of. 

"It may not be right but if it pays think it so."

"It is not every question that deserves an answer."

gg


----------



## bluekelah

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @bluekelah
> 
> It depends on many fundamentals.
> 
> I believe it is a no-brainer  and have been accumulating Gold. I did sell my gold stocks when the market in the US started turning against my liking.
> 
> Gold will appreciate if the war in Ukraine continues. It will be negative for Gold if one side wins decisively.
> 
> Gold will appreciate if the Republicans win the mid-term elections, as we are looking at having the Bronze Loon Trump back in power and every proud boy between Maine and Monterey shooting children in class.
> 
> Gold will appreciate in AUD as the USD strengthens, unless the Yuan becomes stronger as a possible global currency.
> 
> Inflation will get worse and I see no reason why rates won't reach 10-12% as people in the West are conditioned to spend by the televisions and the internets. So the economy won't grow, people will still spend and the government will stop printing money.
> 
> And I will hold Gold which in a year or two which I believe will be well over $AUD4500 per oz.
> 
> Oh and gold stocks, don't forget those, watch for an upturn but I don't believe myself it is yet.
> 
> gg



Great points. I have one thing to add regarding America. Their debt levels have hit ~30.5 Trillion this may 2022. Simple math says 10% rates means 3 trillion. 1 % rate hike means 300billion in interest repayments. FED is indicating they will be probably 2% by year end?  thats 600billion interest bill for the treasury to pay!! and at 3% thats 900billion++!! With already a massive budget deficit, probably made worse now that they have to spend more to try cushion the coming big recession, I do not see how they can afford even a 5% rate hike.

On another note, i believe China is poised to take Taiwan soon, they have been ramping up military presence and look what the defence minister of china had to say at the recent Singapore meeting with USA over the weekend. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/12/world/asia/china-taiwan-us.html

I agree too, with coming recession, AUD being commodity based will see a selloff as the majors iron ore and coal should see a dip in prices due to demand destruction in a global recession. Gold in AUD will shoot up of course in such a situation.

In addition, we could see a new world order, where the Digital YUan could be the next world trade currency as china has massive gold reserves, probably enough to back their digital yuan. In fact, Russia has already switched from VISA to UnionPay , and from SWIFT to CIPS since being sanctioned. UnionPay is now already top for value transaction globally ahead of VISA and CIPS system is likely to gain more headway as many emerging countries try to have a backup/alternative banking system.

Disclaimer : I am a goldbug and own physical gold and my poor beaten down gold miners still lol...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

againsthegrain said:


> Nobody wants gold and money they just want the  hookers  happiness it buys





gg


----------



## bluekelah

as I was just saying, Gold will follow markets down like in march 2020. SnP500 is down 3.7% now, and gold is down 2%, damn its gonna be a brutal week


----------



## Telamelo

Captain_Chaza said:


> With Due Respect gg
> 
> *What is the use of GOLD?
> 
> ie: What is it good for?
> 
> Ie; Why would anybody want it?
> 
> There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!
> 
> View attachment 142841
> *






bluekelah said:


> as I was just saying, Gold will follow markets down like in march 2020. SnP500 is down 3.7% now, and gold is down 2%, damn its gonna be a brutal week



AUD Gold still at a relatively healthy $2,637


----------



## Dona Ferentes

On Wall St at Friday, 4pm: Dow -2.8%, S&P 500 -3.9%, Nasdaq -4.7%
Spot gold -2.3% to $US1828.45 an ounce

_not much safety here though AUD -1.9% to 69.24 US cents, as well._


----------



## wayneL

> *What is the use of GOLD?
> 
> ie: What is it good for?
> 
> Ie; Why would anybody want it?
> 
> There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!
> 
> View attachment 142841
> *



One may as well ask what is the use of a piece of plastic with pretty colours printed on it (that that has no *intrinsic value and you don't really truly own, by the way).

Apart from industrial and decorative uses, it is exchangeable for other crap we might need, food, drugs, hookers etc.

As a commodity Gold does have* intrinsic and a minimum value,* ie the cost of extraction and refinement etcetera. 

Any purchase* at or near this value* is a sure cop in terms of profit potential and as an inflation hedge.

There is most often also speculative component over and above it's intrinsic value, which can be traded for fun and profit (or loss, as the case may be).

When you have cash in a bank you are, in law, an unsecured creditor to that institution... Which incidentally gets to set and vary the terms of your loan to them without reference to you. 

Just some of the reasons the Spanish galleons risked life and limb  upon the high seas and in foreign lands to pilfer the stuff.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> On Wall St at Friday, 4pm: Dow -2.8%, S&P 500 -3.9%, Nasdaq -4.7%
> Spot gold -2.3% to $US1828.45 an ounce
> 
> _not much safety here though AUD -1.9% to 69.24 US cents, as well._



Indeed.

The curlews woke me through the night and I saw Gold had fallen, as well as the US indices.

In AUD Gold has gained roughly about $60 an oz. over the long weekend.



>








gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Mick Jagger has Covid and had to cancel his European Tour. 

There may be a butterfly effect on POG. 

gg


----------



## bluekelah

Telamelo said:


> AUD Gold still at a relatively healthy $2,637



AUD Gold 2620+ now  But yes compared to almost everything else it will outperform even if it goes down a bit. 

Its all going down, especially cryptos getting totally wiped as per usual in risk-off periods. Wait for the margin calls to start and Gold to sell down a bit more to pay for those, then when recession/stagflation kicks in proper, theres gonna be a made rush for Gold. As GG said, likely AUD4500 gold next year.


----------



## Telamelo

US Gold price down -$22 at $1,810 .. whereas AUD Gold slightly in the green at $2,633


----------



## Stockbailx

What are the odds? AUD Gold goes up, US Gold goes down. But when you look the other spectrum with the dollar, that makes sense is that the USD rises then the AUD goes down. What gives? I understand Interest rates play a part but why is Aussie Gold so strong?


----------



## Austwide

Gold is the same price when multiplied by the exchange rate.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

As most have noted Gold has taken a hit in USD and is in profit for many in AUD who bought at a higher USD Gold price. 

It is one of the anomalies of trading, the knee bone is attached to the thigh bone. 

Or Go or Chess. Each move is a prelude to and determines another event. 

It can be tiring or exciting.

I'll not be buying Gold today at this AUD/USD exchange rate. I'll either be holding or selling. 

We are heading in to Hong Kong trading shortly so hopefully the British ( those that have not fled to Singapore ) and Chinese Gold traders will push it up on Chinese lockdowns and upcoming wedding and celebration days. 

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As most have noted Gold has taken a hit in USD and is in profit for many in AUD who bought at a higher USD Gold price.
> 
> It is one of the anomalies of trading, the knee bone is attached to the thigh bone.
> 
> Or Go or Chess. Each move is a prelude to and determines another event.
> 
> It can be tiring or exciting.
> 
> I'll not be buying Gold today at this AUD/USD exchange rate. I'll either be holding or selling.
> 
> We are heading in to Hong Kong trading shortly so hopefully the British ( those that have not fled to Singapore ) and Chinese Gold traders will push it up on Chinese lockdowns and upcoming wedding and celebration days.
> 
> gg



Top summary gg! So let me get this straight, if the AUD exchange rate is down the POG goes up. Or if the AUD rate rises the POG goes down!


----------



## bluekelah

Stockybailz said:


> Top summary gg! So let me get this straight, if the AUD exchange rate is down the POG goes up. Or if the AUD rate rises the POG goes down!



Yes just treat gold/silver as a currency and store of value in itself, thats what i do. And i treat fiat as just a medium to buy stuff from the shops. Be your own bank


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Stockybailz said:


> Top summary gg! So let me get this straight, if the AUD exchange rate is down the POG goes up. Or if the AUD rate rises the POG goes down!



Yes, in my experience. 

Always a risk though. If AUD/USD falls and Gold in USD rises = Great Profits
                                          AUD/USD rises and Gold in USD falls = Great Losses

Problem is in Australia unless you trade Gold on overseas markets or derivatives or bar you only have a 6 hour window ( 8 hours in bar ) in which to make a decision. Which is probably not a bad thing as looking at it too much can cause too much anxiety or elation and lead to loss of sleep or put your heart rate up. 

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

bluekelah said:


> Yes just treat gold/silver as a currency and store of value in itself, thats what i do. And i treat fiat as just a medium to buy stuff from the shops. Be your own bank



Trading economics can be a complex issue. Yet in the same sense, stay with the basics and not get lost in the moment as I always do! Figure it to be common sense (cents)



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes, in my experience.
> 
> Always a risk though. If AUD/USD falls and Gold in USD rises = Great Profits
> AUD/USD rises and Gold in USD falls = Great Losses
> 
> Problem is in Australia unless you trade Gold on overseas markets or derivatives or bar you only have a 6 hour window ( 8 hours in bar ) in which to make a decision. Which is probably not a bad thing as looking at it too much can cause too much anxiety or elation and lead to loss of sleep or put your heart rate up.
> 
> gg


----------



## Stockbailx

here is a few thoughts on were POG may be heading;


----------



## wayneL

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes, in my experience.
> 
> Always a risk though. If AUD/USD falls and Gold in USD rises = Great Profits
> AUD/USD rises and Gold in USD falls = Great Losses
> 
> Problem is in Australia unless you trade Gold on overseas markets or derivatives or bar you only have a 6 hour window ( 8 hours in bar ) in which to make a decision. Which is probably not a bad thing as looking at it too much can cause too much anxiety or elation and lead to loss of sleep or put your heart rate up.
> 
> gg



If you buy gold or silver you are in actual fact in two trades. You are long the metal but you also in a currency trade, viz short AUD/USD.

This this applies for any asset we Australians buy that is denominated in American dollars.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just on charting gold I find the Kitco.com  3 day line chart of Gold quite useful as well as the XE graph of AUD/USD. I don't buy Gold on the ASX often, mostly PMGOLD, but I do like to see a third day start to climb higher than the preceding day. 

Hong Kong and Sydney tend to be more bullish with moves and London more bearish all the time. The US ones I don't follow as I'm asleep. Obviously if London is bullish on the day I keep a close eye for a rise depending on the AUD/USD as that is unusual.

Tonight's charts



>










>




So you are better off buying when the AUD/USD is high and Gold looks to be moving up, with the expectation that Gold will boom and the AUD/USD will fall. 

We'll see how it pans out tomorrow. 

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Expecting POG to tank today giving the recent highs of the AUD as it continues to climb today...


----------



## eskys

Gold is up at the moment. So what happens if gold goes up in USD and our dollar goes up too? Will gold go down or up? This is a genuine question because I'm very confused about how forex affects the gold price


----------



## Stockbailx

eskys said:


> Gold is up at the moment. So what happens if gold goes up in USD and our dollar goes up too? Will gold go down or up? This is a genuine question because I'm very confused about how forex affects the gold price



hard to say? The price of the AUD insinuates the price of AUS Gold. I don't know the price of Australian Gold but I know the AUD is,  going either way if not falling, but looks to be climbing in the long term as I speak. decreasing the POG in Australia. I also know that the XAU/USD has been climbing this morning and looks to decline. Good Question! Early Days?


----------



## eskys

Maybe I should just forget about how it affects gold in Aus, Stockybalz. I only know gold in USD. My main interest is; how it will affect the price of gold shares....thank you for your reply by the way


----------



## wayneL

Easy calc... POG in USD, divided by exchange rate, equals POG in AUD.

The lower the denominator, the higher the price in AUD.


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> hard to say? The price of the AUD insinuates the price of AUS Gold. I don't know the price of Australian Gold but I know the AUD is,  going either way if not falling, but looks to be climbing in the long term as I speak. decreasing the POG in Australia. I also know that the XAU/USD has been climbing this morning and looks to decline. Good Question! Early Days?



Looked up the price Australian spot Gold and see that it is declining as the AUD climbs. I've got to re-neg on my comments about the XAU/USD as it should climb on the back of a weaker USD...I don't mean to confuse the subject but I'm trying to re-numerate how the price of XAU/USD can be calculated and forcast of the back of the AUD/USD.


----------



## eskys

I don't mean to say you confused me, Stockybalz, I simply didn't understand how to put one and two together (I'm a basic person and it doesn't take much to confuse me at the best of times) 

I think it was towards the end of last week or was it at the weekend, that I asked gg how that worked when he said gold will go up if AUD went down(I think that was what he said) I later realised I was talking about Fuji apples and he,  about Pink Ladies, sort of apple speak


----------



## Telamelo

eskys said:


> Maybe I should just forget about how it affects gold in Aus, Stockybalz. I only know gold in USD. My main interest is; how it will affect the price of gold shares....thank you for your reply by the way



Following link below provides both US & AUD Gold price in real time






						Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com
					

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.




					goldbroker.com


----------



## eskys

Thanks, Tela, that's handy to know


----------



## Stockbailx

Here's a different site for looking up the price of spot Gold. All the different country's, very user friendly. 






						Spot Gold
					

This page displays charts of the current price of gold, otherwise known as the spot gold price. The spot gold price refers to the price at which gold may be bought and sold right now, as opposed to a date in the future. The spot price for gold is in a constant state of flux, and can be driven by...




					goldprice.org


----------



## Captain_Chaza

*GOLD is no longer a RARE Commodity!

I Repeat!

GOLD is no longer a RARE Commodity

There is Tons of GOLD in Uganda

Who on EARTH  needs any more than this?

This is more Gold than that has ever been mined in History

This is How you Deflate the price of GOLD IMHO

Supply  (RARETY) is Everything! *


----------



## Sean K

Captain_Chaza said:


> *GOLD is no longer a RARE Commodity!
> 
> I Repeat!
> 
> GOLD is no longer a RARE Commodity
> 
> There is Tons of GOLD in Uganda
> 
> Who on EARTH  needs any more than this?
> 
> This is more Gold than that has ever been mined in History
> 
> This is How you Deflate the price of GOLD IMHO
> 
> Supply  (RARETY) is Everything! *




LOL 😅😂🤣


----------



## Stockbailx

That's a lot of Gold, who ever owns that gig, would be one happy digger. Trade it all in, and he could bye Uganda.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Sean K said:


> LOL 😅😂🤣



I dare you to buy any  New Gold Stocks! 

*IN REAL TIME!*

Proof of your new ownership  is REQUIRED by me if you want to make a point
Otherwise
Little Faces and Squirts are fine


----------



## Sean K

Captain_Chaza said:


> I dare you to buy any  New Gold Stocks!
> 
> *IN REAL TIME!*
> 
> Proof of your new ownership  is REQUIRED by me if you want to make a point
> Otherwise
> Little Faces and Squirts are fine




I read about this a week ago Chaza. It looks like it's based on an undisclosed aerial survey. So, slightly not in the 'inferred' JORC category yet.


----------



## ducati916

Captain_Chaza said:


> I dare you to buy any  New Gold Stocks!
> 
> *IN REAL TIME!*
> 
> Proof of your new ownership  is REQUIRED by me if you want to make a point
> Otherwise
> Little Faces and Squirts are fine




So from 1 tonne of gold ore you can extract grammes. The richest mine in the world currently extracts 44g/tonne. If we used that number then we have 31Mg x44 = 997 troy oz +/- x44 which is 35T gold x44 = 1540 tonnes of .999 gold +/-

Hardly worth getting that excited about. Further, it will not all be mined immediately, setting up a mining operation takes lots of time and capital. Further, this is Africa we are talking about...the corruption almost guarantees a total clusterf**k in the process.

So I'll just add:

Bought EQX 15mins ago:



October expiry, CALLS at $7.50 @ $0.24 x 10

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

eskys said:


> Gold is up at the moment. So what happens if gold goes up in USD and our dollar goes up too? Will gold go down or up? This is a genuine question because I'm very confused about how forex affects the gold





Captain_Chaza said:


> *GOLD is no longer a RARE Commodity!
> 
> I Repeat!
> 
> GOLD is no longer a RARE Commodity
> 
> There is Tons of GOLD in Uganda
> 
> Who on EARTH  needs any more than this?
> 
> This is more Gold than that has ever been mined in History
> 
> This is How you Deflate the price of GOLD IMHO
> 
> Supply  (RARETY) is Everything! *




This guy from Uganda is a particular kind of monster only found in the Great Lakes area of that continent which include Rwanda. 

He is a mass murderer, liar, cheat, manipulator of elections and corrupt in the extreme. 

I would take anything he says with a pinch of salt. 

I happen to have a bridge over Sydney Harbour near Circular Quay that I can sell you quite cheaply if you are interested.  



gg


----------



## eskys

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This guy from Uganda is a particular kind of monster only found in the Great Lakes area of that continent which include Rwanda.
> 
> He is a mass murderer, liar, cheat, manipulator of elections and corrupt in the extreme.
> 
> I would take anything he says with a pinch of salt.
> 
> I happen to have a bridge over Sydney Harbour near Circular Quay that I can sell you quite cheaply if you are interested.
> 
> 
> 
> gg




We had a rough night overseas, and as far as I can see, gold was the only one up, so my take is...........gold will hold ok and likely go up, but don't take my word for it, please ( I absolve myself of all liabilities)


----------



## Stockbailx

eskys said:


> We had a rough night overseas, and as far as I can see, gold was the only one up, so my take is...........gold will hold ok and likely go up, but don't take my word for it, please ( I absolve myself of all liabilities)



On the back of a strong USD, I see POG XAU/USD falling bearish this morning and looking at an oversold short term position. For my two cents in the long term should continue on that path for most of the day. I think It will break though support 1818.0.
 How ever with that been said the POG AU is up on the back of a weaker Australian Dollar, Up 0.50% @ 2,630.0 and climbing, should be a good day for AU Gold.
 And Not so good for US Gold that is moderating its position at this present time...


----------



## eskys

Yes, I see what you mean, Stocky.


----------



## eskys

Wondering if our gold stocks will hold up over the weekend...gold down USD 4.17 at the moment, pre market in the green....Tela, are you about? EVN looking good ...I can't decide what to do


----------



## Sean K

eskys said:


> Wondering if our gold stocks will hold up over the weekend...gold down USD 4.17 at the moment, pre market in the green....Tela, are you about? EVN looking good ...I can't decide what to do




All the major gold miners are up _at the moment_. I think you need to work out an investment / trading style and plan eskys.


----------



## eskys

I'll take the risk and run it, Sean. Thanks (don't follow my lead, people, this is a risk I'm prepared to take, may not suit you)


----------



## Telamelo

eskys said:


> Wondering if our gold stocks will hold up over the weekend...gold down USD 4.17 at the moment, pre market in the green....Tela, are you about? EVN looking good ...I can't decide what to do



My Goldie's EVN, WGX & TUL doing very well today  (luckily/fortunately got in this past week around the low's as am bullish on Gold mid-longer term).

Good Luck!

P.S. Not investment advice per say but my suggestion is to shortlist gold stocks you are interested in & review their fundamentals/charts/upcoming catalysts etc. and when there's a pullback perhaps start building up a position in them over time but it all depends on your trading plan/goals etc.


----------



## eskys

Telamelo said:


> My Goldie's EVN, WGX & TUL doing very well today  (luckily/fortunately got in this past week around the low's as am bullish on Gold mid-longer term).
> 
> Good Luck!



Congratulations, gold stocks did well today......Pain or pleasure, we'll find out tomorrow/Monday morning.........have a great weekend, and everyone


----------



## Telamelo

eskys said:


> Congratulations, gold stocks did well today......Pain or pleasure, we'll find out tomorrow/Monday morning.........have a great weekend, and everyone



Suggest you try figure out your trading plan/strategy as what may work for me may not suit you & vice-versa (meanwhile, let's see how gold behaves tonight as to possibilities come Monday)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Any more "news" from Uganda?

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Any more "news" from Uganda?
> 
> gg




They are installing golden toilets in grass huts as we speak.


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> They are installing golden toilets in grass huts as we speak.



Puts new meaning on that old joke about "people who live in grass huts should not stow thrones".
Mick


----------



## divs4ever

so what is the premium on physical ( delivered ) gold  ??

 you should not be looking at gold ,  but the drivers   for paper gold prices have little to do with the demand for  gold 

 now a gorilla playing  is the US Fed ( either discretely  , through futures contracts or proxies ) they need gold to LOOK weak    , because  one , they need to make the US dollar to look strong ( you can't really have the world reserve currency looking like confetti  , can you ?? ) and two ,  they NEED to flush scared investors into US Treasuries ( because they have reduced/stopped buying them , and they were the buyer of last resort ,  so they need real patsies to fill the void )

 now of course  other players have similar aims and don't want the punters loaded up on  ( physical ) gold and silver  , they ( for example ) generate income from trading  and management fees  , if 50% of the market wealth is hidden under floorboards ... 

 now gold STOCKS face twin pressures  , rising mining costs  and paper ( contract ) price manipulation 

i am looking for more downward pressure  on gold stocks ( and hopefully finding more accumulation opportunities )


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> Puts new meaning on that old joke about "people who live in grass huts should not stow thrones".
> Mick



 Russia would be willing selling  abandoned US weapons  for gold , if the find is genuine  ( that much actual gold is liable to foment regime change attempts  )


----------



## DaveTrade

divs4ever said:


> they need to make the US dollar to look strong




Here’s the thing about a strong dollar – it’s a market killer. Stocks don’t rise when the dollar is this strong.


----------



## divs4ever

if the ( US ) dollar looks like trash  ( as some are claiming )   down goes the US economy  and investors will flee entirely ( possibly into silver, gold and other durable commodities , like land and collectibles )


----------



## DaveTrade

divs4ever said:


> if the ( US ) dollar looks like trash  ( as some are claiming )   down goes the US economy  and investors will flee entirely ( possibly into silver, gold and other durable commodities , like land and collectibles )




The US dollar is the highest level since 2002.


----------



## divs4ever

but that is because many other major currencies  are even more tragic  ,  i could become a world class sprinter if you amputated the legs off the rest of the world population ( and made them crawl )


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> but that is because many other major currencies  are even more tragic  ,  i could become a world class sprinter if you amputated the legs off the rest of the world population ( and made them crawl )



Compare that to gold and commodities backed Rubble?
Worthless fiats are on the way to the abyss


----------



## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> Compare that to gold and commodities backed Rubble?
> Worthless fiats are on the way to the abyss



 plenty of history to prove that 

 HOWEVER they try new ways  to rebrand and trick us into a new fiat currency ( i am betting they will try a digital fiat  , and hope we are too lazy to calculate numbers )


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> plenty of history to prove that
> 
> HOWEVER they try new ways  to rebrand and trick us into a new fiat currency ( i am betting they will try a digital fiat  , and hope we are too lazy to calculate numbers )



A given..i sometimes wonder if the WEF will do their own crypto world dollar, remember the ECU before the Euro?
A balanced multination (western aka Reset) currency adding stability..or pseudo stability with a world wide control outside voters/gov interference.it is a dream for Davoz,and they just need to make sure it becomes people's dream too.
why would they waste a great opportunity: after covid,they could leverage inflation as well once it hurts population enough.


----------



## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> A given..i sometimes wonder if the WEF will do their own crypto world dollar, remember the ECU before the Euro?



 it will be a one world currency where it  counts ( at the top of the pyramid  ) and given the US Democrats obsession ( well at least Nancy Pelosi's )   very likely digital  if all goes to ( their ) plan 

 if the top of the pyramid controls everything  crypto is superfluous  it will be straight credits in the account with all sorts of trackers and data wrap .

 but pseudo stability is all it will be  , because of human nature ( at the top of the pyramid )

 i wonder what will happen to all that useless government when the plan is complete , automation will replace them so efficiently


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> it will be a one world currency where it  counts ( at the top of the pyramid  ) and given the US Democrats obsession ( well at least Nancy Pelosi's )   very likely digital  if all goes to ( their ) plan
> 
> if the top of the pyramid controls everything  crypto is superfluous  it will be straight credits in the account with all sorts of trackers and data wrap .
> 
> but pseudo stability is all it will be  , because of human nature ( at the top of the pyramid )
> 
> i wonder what will happen to all that useless government when the plan is complete , automation will replace them so efficiently



And what would be the role of gold there.after all, China, India, Russia if not nuked,might still be around and may not be interested in WEF New$..gold could still play a role.
Overnight gold slightly down in USD, but USD was surging so stable or slight rise vs AUD I think.


----------



## divs4ever

if Russia is nuked so is half the known world  ,  some nations 'into radioactive  dust '

 'dead hand' was activated at least two years back  ,  the US has Joe Biden  to handle an emergency  , Russia has an automatic ( launch all ) system  , i am GUESSING the major focus will be in the Northern Hemisphere , but Australia has a few prime targets  

 bear in mind  the 20% of the US enriched uranium needs  it imports from Russia  comes from obsolete nuclear warheads  and has done for several years now , and Russia  and China  have both improved their delivery systems 

 since the WEF is European-centric  you would have thought they would have learned better from history  , Europe has some excellent history of 'empires '

 now the question is  , IF  the digital currency is installed , will the barter system  flourish once more  because you can bet they will start restricting purchases and sales  , if so  gold and silver ( and platinum ) with have a place in such a counter-culture ( highly illegal for the peasants of course , but look how effectively they have stopped cocaine and opium )

 if you doubt Russia  has the 'dead-man switch ' think logically Russia is almost self-sufficient  it even sold Alaska to the US because it had so much land  , whereas  the US NEEDS resources ( and cheap labour  ) to fill it's insatiable greed ( and most of Europe isn't much better ) Russia doesn't NEED the US or EU  ,  but the US and EU  NEED the Russian resources ( including the farmland ) ( that is why the West went after the neutron bomb  , it wipes out the life but leaves most of the buildings and infrastructure intact ( and safe to use in a few years )


----------



## divs4ever

now this horrid  scenario assumes  India , Pakistan  and North Korea   won't launch their nukes 

 Israel probably will , UK and France almost certainly  , and who knows who else is actually nuclear capable , especially if they  go for 'dirty bombs ' ( ground level blasts   as opposed to 'air-burst ' as used over Japan in WW2 )


----------



## divs4ever

so assuming the world regains some sanity , but let's the WEF crew take over anyway  , i am guessing  the traditional 'black market'  will evolve ( very hard to penalize those who own NOTHING )


----------



## Telamelo

qldfrog said:


> And what would be the role of gold there.after all, China, India, Russia if not nuked,might still be around and may not be interested in WEF New$..gold could still play a role.
> Overnight gold slightly down in USD, but USD was surging so stable or slight rise vs AUD I think.



Yeah correct.. as AUD Gold price rose overnight to $2,653 +0.71%


----------



## divs4ever

BTW it is very hard to destroy  gold with nuclear weapons ( unlike paper and computer systems )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

divs4ever said:


> BTW it is very hard to destroy  gold with nuclear weapons ( unlike paper and computer systems )



Thank you @divs4ever.

That is extremely gratifying to know. 

gg


----------



## Captain_Chaza

ducati916 said:


> So from 1 tonne of gold ore you can extract grammes. The richest mine in the world currently extracts 44g/tonne. If we used that number then we have 31Mg x44 = 997 troy oz +/- x44 which is 35T gold x44 = 1540 tonnes of .999 gold +/-
> 
> Hardly worth getting that excited about. Further, it will not all be mined immediately, setting up a mining operation takes lots of time and capital. Further, this is Africa we are talking about...the corruption almost guarantees a total clusterf**k in the process.
> 
> So I'll just add:
> 
> Bought EQX 15mins ago:
> 
> View attachment 142953
> 
> October expiry, CALLS at $7.50 @ $0.24 x 10
> 
> jog on
> duc



That's a Very Brave Call !  IMHO
and Many Thanks

However I fear that Triple bottoms are even unknown  in CANADIAN WATERS

Albeit in American Dollars
My best of luck and Best wishes


----------



## Austwide

Does gold retain radioactivity from nuclear weapons, don't think so.
If it did would it be unmarketable and worthless?


----------



## wayneL

Austwide said:


> Does gold retain radioactivity from nuclear weapons, don't think so.
> If it did would it be unmarketable and worthless?



It's not so much the direct blast refered to, I don't think. It's the electromagnetic pulse that would take out our whole electrical/digital network... 

A few skekels worth of the shiny stuff would be handy to have in those circumstances


----------



## divs4ever

Austwide said:


> Does gold retain radioactivity from nuclear weapons, don't think so.
> If it did would it be unmarketable and worthless?



 only to those intending to trade it ( physically )  , to an optimist  one might call it  'cheap anti-theft insurance ' ( assuming the owner didn't irradiate the gold  him/herself )

   now radioactive  gold  as an industrial commodity  might be interesting   a long ( half)life  low output power source  , maybe   

 the irradiated gold would be less attractive for normal commercial use  , but  surely there would be  someone creative out there  ( remember lethal does not always equate to useless )


----------



## divs4ever

wayneL said:


> It's not so much the direct blast refered to, I don't think. It's the electromagnetic pulse that would take out our whole electrical/digital network...
> 
> A few skekels worth of the shiny stuff would be handy to have in those circumstances



 even a direct blast  should   allow the gold  to be extracted and refined again  ( surely it would still be at  greater concentrations than 1 gram/per tonne  in the surrounding  area )


----------



## againsthegrain

divs4ever said:


> only to those intending to trade it ( physically )  , to an optimist  one might call it  'cheap anti-theft insurance ' ( assuming the owner didn't irradiate the gold  him/herself )
> 
> now radioactive  gold  as an industrial commodity  might be interesting   a long ( half)life  low output power source  , maybe
> 
> the irradiated gold would be less attractive for normal commercial use  , but  surely there would be  someone creative out there  ( remember lethal does not always equate to useless )




Thats what you call a LT hold


----------



## divs4ever

againsthegrain said:


> Thats what you call a LT hold



 indeed  an asset  , i hope to never NEED to liquidate ( am hoping similar for the silver as well ) , am hoping the copper will do any heavy lifting  , needed


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

re. Direct Strike on one of gg's Gold bar reserve dug holes. Radiation and Gold. @divs4ever 

I did a quick duckduckgo search and this is all I came up with. From 2003. 



			Re: If exposed to radiation, does gold become radioactive?
		


In summary it would scatter the Gold and it would be radioactive for a few days as the isotope produced has a very short half life. 

To hit all my Gold most of Qld., WA and the NT would be uninhabitable. So I suppose it is a risk. Now where would be a safe place to dig...

gg


----------



## divs4ever

was that  an electron-emitting bomb  , or a neutron-emitting bomb  ??

 but in theory  your hidden gold  would probably stored in a metal enclosure   ( reducing the rads  exposure )  , but those preppers have some interesting strategies to avoid metal detectors  , for other metal goods


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> most of Qld., WA and the NT would be uninhabitable





 but  , but , that is most of those regions already  maybe  you are just better off  buying an abandoned scrap yard  and dig there ( plenty  of degrading iron to throw off the detectors )


----------



## StockyGuy

I always love a good apocalypse movie / scenario. There's certainly situations where would gold and silver would be the best wealth to have.

In ya real Mad Max-y / Book of Eli sort of times though, other things might be much more meaningful in promoting one's physical survival in this cruel world.  These are often down to pure luck.  Lucky ones might be those being lucky enough to be a big, physically imposing dude, a female of childbearing age, a mechanic (and tradies generally), people who have a big family around them that would be a clan of sorts, good hunters, people who own weapons, and so on.

You'd certainly rather gold than paper money or crypto (!) going into an apocalypse, but I'm not sure how useful it would be to any survivors in the event of a serious exchange of nukes between two superpowers.  Even when its desirability returned, until there was a rule of law again, anyone who had it likely would not have it for long unless they could defend it.


----------



## divs4ever

the chances are SOME humans would survive for a while  ( especially in remote areas ) BUT are they the sort of humans you would like to work with  ( i would be thinking Eastern Russia and the Southern Hemisphere  would have better short-term survival rates )

 most scenarios would  have the 3 NATO nuclear powers launching in  quick sequence  ( depending on if the UK fleet is seaborne ) ,  China would be they key here  , i think they would really like to own big areas  of the conquered West  ( whereas Russian    has enough of everything  they want already  , and too many 'unfriendly nations ' )  so China ( in my opinion )  would probably only launch  as a response ( counter-attack )


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> the chances are SOME humans would survive for a while  ( especially in remote areas ) BUT are they the sort of humans you would like to work with  ( i would be thinking Eastern Russia and the Southern Hemisphere  would have better short-term survival rates )
> 
> most scenarios would  have the 3 NATO nuclear powers launching in  quick sequence  ( depending on if the UK fleet is seaborne ) ,  China would be they key here  , i think they would really like to own big areas  of the conquered West  ( whereas Russian    has enough of everything  they want already  , and too many 'unfriendly nations ' )  so China ( in my opinion )  would probably only launch  as a response ( counter-attack )



US would let Europe and  NATO launch and expects russia western Europe cleaned out.question. and bloody important now..is would russia also launch against American soil if attacked from Europe.and can they actually change target easily in silo.
In either case, gold ownership and price will become very much abstract theory :
with starving Indonesians flooding from the north, chinese military in charge of our mines and stranded Teslas blocking the freeways out of our capital cities , preventing our one team of sailors boarding our single trip ready Collins submarine to leave..
😊


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> US would let Europe and  NATO launch and expects russia western Europe cleaned out.question. and bloody important now..is would russia also launch against American soil if attacked from Europe.and can they actually change target easily in silo.
> In either case, gold ownership and price will become very much abstract theory :
> with starving Indonesians flooding from the north, chinese military in charge of our mines and stranded Teslas blocking the freeways out of our capital cities , preventing our one team of sailors boarding our single trip ready Collins submarine to leave..
> 😊



Who does not like a book of Eli story?


----------



## divs4ever

IF Dead Hand detects what if thinks is a nuclear  attack , IF the system loses contact  with the Kremlin , IF certain other communications  are interrupted  ( one or all of these)  a barrage of missiles are automatically launched  and those missiles give the launch orders  to all the missiles in the area they fly over ( i am guessing they already  have preset targets  , Guam , Okinawa , Hawaii  etc , etc all the big military bases ,  and other high priority targets )  , that is something over 1,000 nuclear warheads  (  this does  not include  the seaborne missiles or the new high-speed missiles  .
  in Syria and Ukraine Russia is launching cruise missiles ( nuclear CAPABLE ) in barrages of six from a freaking destroyer  , and sets of 8 hyper-sonic missiles ( i am guessing they are tactical nuke capable ) from truck mounted systems )

  before the second Iraq  the US war-gamed it using  Israel  as the pretend  target ,  now the general playing Israel  started off  with a multiple missile launch  some of which were nuclear warheads  ... and the US defense computer systems overloaded and shut-down  and that is only Israel  ( albeit 30 years back ) Russia has the capability  of launching at least 10 times that  , AND several other systems  that would be human controlled with minimal electronic assistance ( because Russians always expect their electronics to fail  at critical moments )

 so the question is  AFTER Russia has launched  how good are the NATO missile defense systems  given MOST nuclear  and biological  warheads  are designed to be air-burst  ( explode ABOVE the ground )  so the missile for Langley gets intercepted  but detonates over Detroit or Chicago 

 i would also guess Russia  would also send  missile with conventional warheads  in that mix  just to overstretch  the defense systems ( and attack stuff  like fuel depots  , rail networks etc etc )

 now all this assumes China and North Korea sit on the sidelines ( or be late to the party )  and it is Russia against NATO ( and the 5 eyes )

 the result is the global economy is in one heck of a mess , power and communications likely disrupted  , administrations collapsed , and without  power and communications  , a minimal banking system 

 now of course Russia could be bluffing this time .. but then again they are show-casing their hyper-sonic missiles in Ukraine   , right after testing out the new cruise-missile systems in Syria  .. maybe they have more of these than a few prototypes


----------



## noirua

It’s been a doozy of a month: Gold went straight down the elevator shaft five weeks in a row after an Easter bounce, while silver continued its sideways ten-year run.

Will things turn around in June? Host Craig Hemke sits down with Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to break down the month’s gold and silver news.
15 June 2022


----------



## divs4ever

i wouldn't call that 'straight down the elevator shaft '

 if gold had of tested $US 1,000  , well i would have conceded  that  gold had had a nasty fall ( after all plenty of big players are manipulating the price here )

 now with gold and silver  what   happens if there is a complete disconnect  between take-away  price ( the one when you take your treasure home ) and the 'market price ' ( say a 50% premium for the real metal )


----------



## Stockbailx

Back on the subject of Gold? Looking at this morning sentiment For the AUD it looks encouraged by early indications to be up for most of the day, time will tell. On that basis I expect AU Gold price to remain on a low, currently consolidating price 2039oz. Gives me the intuition to say US Gold will be up today on back of a weaker USD...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I follow your thinking @Stockybailz but don't agree with some of the assumptions and inputs. 

The Hong Kong trading hours seem to be accumalatory  ( is that a word ) for Gold, and in London they conversely sell. This has been a pattern for some months. 

There is a tension between the Capital markets of China and the US as to "Reserve Currency" the USD or the CNY (Yuan or Renminbi). 

Equally there is a developing war in Europe and Russia and the Europeans are notoriously indifferent to flagging a war until they are up to their gills in one. So war is on the cards, and not just a little one. 

As to the AUD/USD it may go either way, but gold will definitely go up as the Chinese are accumulating it as are most mid to large nations. Once they have enough they can ditch the USD as a reserve currency which will enhance their own and lower borrowing rates for them. 

The USD = Reserve Currence
The AUD = Commodities

I cannot see commodities falling in price. They will go up in war for weapons and infrastructure replacement. In peace commodities are needed for progress. The AUD is a proxy for commodities in currency trading. 

Gold will rise either way as it has for thousands of years and any currency changes will either make for a large profit or a huge profit in AUD.

gg


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price ripping higher tonight at $2,668 +1.46%  whilst oil price -5.4% lower


----------



## Stockbailx

AU Gold coming down off highs yesterday as the AUD bounced off support and bulls fort for higher ground, breaking though resistance late in the evening last night. If I was any good at looking at the forecast of AU Gold, I would predict they there will be further swing down for the precious metal...


----------



## Dona Ferentes

And there's a view that gold is suffering from its own *stagflation*; has traded narrowly and not retested pre-Ukraine high while AISC are rising relentlessly.









						Tough Week for Some Local Gold Producers – ShareCafe
					

The past week has seen the Australian gold sector spring a leak, with three good producers revealing unexpected operational problems, catching investors on the hop.




					www.sharecafe.com.au


----------



## Telamelo

Dona Ferentes said:


> And there's a view that gold is suffering from its own *stagflation*; has traded narrowly and not retested pre-Ukraine high while AISC are rising relentlessly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tough Week for Some Local Gold Producers – ShareCafe
> 
> 
> The past week has seen the Australian gold sector spring a leak, with three good producers revealing unexpected operational problems, catching investors on the hop.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sharecafe.com.au



Only Gold producer so far on track to meet guidance comfortably is WGX (per their recent positive forecast release).. also, substantial holder notice came on board as of yesterday.


----------



## divs4ever

they didn't 'leak ' enough to tempt me to buy extra gold miners during the week


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I must admit I'm avoiding Gold Stocks until all the general issues affecting miners such as supply chain, geopolitics etc. are more predictable. 

Gold itself I may accumulate if it falls in AUD. So far I'm ahead on my "gold insurance".

gg


----------



## The Triangle

Telamelo said:


> Only Gold producer so far on track to meet guidance comfortably is WGX (per their recent positive forecast release).. also, substantial holder notice came on board as of yesterday.



Except no financials to accompany the "bumper" report from Westgold.  AISC is accounting witchcraft.

Truth comes from how much cash is in the bank and we must wait for the quarterly/EOFY
Capex?
Debts?
Leases?
Resource depletion?
Revenue per ounce?

Do you trust the Investments made today (which outstripped operating revenue last half) will deliver appropriate returns tomorrow? (*cough* Dacian) 





Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I'm avoiding Gold Stocks until all the general issues affecting miners such as supply chain, geopolitics etc. are more predictable.
> 
> Gold itself I may accumulate if it falls in AUD. So far I'm ahead on my "gold insurance".
> 
> gg



Not a bad view to have.  JBHI-FI can pass along cost increases to the customer pretty easily. How does westgold, newcrest, northern star, etc.  pass along wage increases, diesel increases, consumable prices increases, fifo food cost increases?   Answer:  They don't.


----------



## divs4ever

The Triangle said:


> Not a bad view to have. JBHI-FI can pass along cost increases to the customer pretty easily. How does westgold, newcrest, northern star, etc. pass along wage increases, diesel increases, consumable prices increases, fifo food cost increases? Answer: They don't.



 am not so sure JBH  has that sort of luxury either going forward ,  but MOST miners ( the base metal ones )  are looking at reasonably high prizes  , another factor  is the Australian dollar ( for some of them )  a weak 'Holy Dollar '  is a good thing  unless they are upgrading plant , it is always a balancing act with miners  , some can cut costs by decreasing exploration or brownfield development  on a temporary basis


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The G7 has decided to further tighten the screws on Russian gold production and refined sales. 

The following are reports today from Bloomberg.com



> The US, UK, Japan and Canada plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during a summit of Group of Seven leaders that’s getting underway Sunday.




To put this in context for gold traders Bloomberg kindly provided a pie chart of world gold production from 2020.



>




So Russia is on a par with Australia and still producing. Much of their gold will be diverted to India and The Middle East as London and Zurich and the above mentioned G7's have closed any sales from Russia for the foreseeable future. 

It is difficult to predict what effect this will have on the price of gold. I am told Russians in general and Russian oligarchs in particular are piling in to gold atm. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I've been looking at the POG and following the war in Europe and the shenanigans in the USA, China and Russia. All three empires seem strangely unstable, and not that strong, all at once. The USA because of hubris, China because they have too many uncontrollable balls in the air ( not least Mr. Xi's ) and Russia because they have too many sheep being led by fat old men with small dicks. 

The AUD/USD, unless there is some peace, will not reach it's recent heydays of 79-81c anytime soon, so at 69c it will bobble 1-2c up and down. For those buying Gold in USD this is as good as it will get for some time. 

Chartwise, the POG has been building up a sideways consolidation between $1800 and $2000 for the past 2 years. It will not stay in this range much longer. Frankly I cannot see it fall. 

So ...




gg


----------



## ducati916

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've been looking at the POG and following the war in Europe and the shenanigans in the USA, China and Russia. All three empires seem strangely unstable, and not that strong, all at once. The USA because of hubris, China because they have too many uncontrollable balls in the air ( not least Mr. Xi's ) and Russia because they have too many sheep being led by fat old men with small dicks.
> 
> The AUD/USD, unless there is some peace, will not reach it's recent heydays of 79-81c anytime soon, so at 69c it will bobble 1-2c up and down. For those buying Gold in USD this is as good as it will get for some time.
> 
> Chartwise, the POG has been building up a sideways consolidation between $1800 and $2000 for the past 2 years. It will not stay in this range much longer. Frankly I cannot see it fall.
> 
> So ...
> 
> View attachment 143363
> 
> 
> gg




Mr GG,

This really depends on whether you are talking about paper gold or physical gold. The 2 markets are quite divergent currently.

Paper gold will fall when the markets enter a liquidity event, correlations move to 1. Physical gold premiums, particularly for retail will not fall much, if at all. The issue will be availability...can you actually get physical.

Paper gold will bounce back. If you are fast, you could probably buy near the bottom. The issue is that standing for delivery on the physical is likely to be fruitless.

Why you would want the physical.

At issue is the viability of fiat currencies. The liquidity event in the USD will force the Fed back to QE, pegged interest rates and even higher inflation. That inflation carries a risk of a hyper-inflation if the general population starts to dump dollars. If the USD goes, all fiats go.

At this point the IMF steps in with SDRs. SDRs are simply another fiat. If the SDRs fail to stem the tide of fiat dumping, the only way is to back the currency with gold. I think everyone now realises that cryptos are a non-starter.

Hence China, Russia, Brazil all the 'Stans' and a few others are creating a currency backed by a basket of commodities. This is not a new idea. It was extensively debated in the 1940's/50's. A bit unwieldy.

Individuals need physical gold/silver.

jog on
duc


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price up as we speak @ $2,658 +0.85%


----------



## Telamelo

After poor price action yesterday... Gold price since recovered overnight to finish at AUD $2,654 +1.37%  equates to US $1,813


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The G7 has decided to further tighten the screws on Russian gold production and refined sales.
> 
> The following are reports today from Bloomberg.com
> 
> 
> 
> To put this in context for gold traders Bloomberg kindly provided a pie chart of world gold production from 2020.
> 
> 
> 
> So Russia is on a par with Australia and still producing. Much of their gold will be diverted to India and The Middle East as London and Zurich and the above mentioned G7's have closed any sales from Russia for the foreseeable future.
> 
> It is difficult to predict what effect this will have on the price of gold. I am told Russians in general and Russian oligarchs in particular are piling in to gold atm.
> 
> gg



 the last i heard  90% of gold mined inside Russia went straight into the Russian Central Bank  ( which is obviously out of step with several other major Central Banks )

 and also last i heard  the Russian criminal world had an extensive black-market   , i am sure Russia will find a solution .


----------



## againsthegrain

divs4ever said:


> the last i heard  90% of gold mined inside Russia went straight into the Russian Central Bank  ( which is obviously out of step with several other major Central Banks )
> 
> and also last i heard  the Russian criminal world had an extensive black-market   , i am sure Russia will find a solution .




Russian criminal world actually works with the Russian government just through proxies so there will be a solution there


----------



## divs4ever

againsthegrain said:


> Russian criminal world actually works with the Russian government just through proxies so there will be a solution there



 actually the KGB as i understand it  but then the CIA has a relationship with the Mafia  , so not so unusual


----------



## againsthegrain

divs4ever said:


> actually the KGB as i understand it  but then the CIA has a relationship with the Mafia  , so not so unusual




After the soviet union broke up all the ex kgb either ended up in the government or the mafia so the line between them became very blurry, im sure now the structure changed but still principle.

Yeah cia is no angel either with their little "war on drugs" adventures.


----------



## divs4ever

againsthegrain said:


> After the soviet union broke up all the ex kgb either ended up in the government or the mafia so the line between them became very blurry, im sure now the structure changed but still principle.
> 
> Yeah cia is no angel either with their little "war on drugs" adventures.



 not just the KGB but the Russian parliament is dominated by ex security/intelligence high-ranking officials  ( from various branches ) , which makes an educational change from the more common  military junta 

 for example do Russian parliamentarians  tap former information sources when forming policy  ( circumventing  the usual government consultants )


----------



## Telamelo

@Student of Gann I'd be interested in your analysis about Gold  (if you have the time please).

Thanks in advance.


----------



## mullokintyre

At a time when inflation is running high in virtually every country, when fiat currencies are seeing the results of massive increases of money supply, one might expect that PM's would be very much in demand and thus  being on a rising curve.
Of course, we have the exact opposite.
There have been numerous articles about just how much of the PM market is gamed by the big banks, the only question has really ever been exactly who are  the counterparties.
From Wall Street on Parade


> Last Tuesday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released its quarterly report on derivatives held at the megabanks on Wall Street. As we browsed through the standard graphs that are included in the quarterly report, one graph jumped out at us. It showed a measured growth in precious metals derivatives at insured U.S. commercial banks and savings associations over the past two decades and then an explosion in growth between the last quarter of 2021 and the end of the first quarter of this year.
> 
> In just one quarter, precious metals derivatives had soared from $79.28 billion to $491.87 billion. That’s a 520 percent increase in a span of three months. (See Figure 18 at this link. The last ten years of the graph is shown above.)
> 
> Having studied these quarterly reports since the 2008 financial crash, we knew where to head next. We went to the graphs in the OCC report showing the breakdown of different categories of derivatives at specific banks. Table 21 showed that precious metals contracts at JPMorgan Chase had spiked to $330.123  billion as of March 31, 2022. The same table showed that Citigroup’s insured commercial bank, Citibank, held $114.148 billion in precious metals derivatives.
> 
> According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, as of March 31, 2022, there were 4,796 federally insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. Combine that figure with the latest report from the OCC and it means that just two banks, JPMorgan Chase and Citibank, control 90 percent of the precious metals derivatives of all 4,796 insured financial institutions in the U.S.
> 
> We checked the previous OCC report for the quarter ending December 31, 2021. It showed that at year-end 2021, JPMorgan Chase had reported only $28.182 billion in precious metals derivatives versus $330.123 billion three months later – a staggering increase of 1,071 percent.



One of the reasons for the massive growth is that for some bizarre reason, the big banks have been allowed to  call so many of these derivitive products as exchange derivitive products.
The OCC report had a footnote that explained this large jump.



> “Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared to prior quarters….”



So for how long has this scam being running?



> The footnote raised more questions than it answered. According to legal definitions available at Cornell Law School (not to mention common sense), an “exchange rate derivative contract” is “a cross-currency interest rate swap, forward foreign-exchange contract, currency option purchased, or any other instrument linked to exchange rates that gives rise to similar counterparty credit risks.”
> 
> Why would a gold derivatives contract have _ever_ been classified as an exchange rate contract? Gold contracts are to foreign exchange contracts what zebras are to a centipede.
> 
> There is the decided perception that Wall Street megabanks have been hiding from the public the true extent of their involvement in the gold market through some ginned-up derivative definition.
> 
> In addition to the wild growth in precious metals exposure at JPMorgan Chase, Citibank’s precious metals holdings in one quarter had grown from $6.979 billion to $114.148 billion. But Bank of America, a peer bank to JPMorgan Chase and Citibank, showed no such gargantuan increase in its precious metals holdings from year-end 2021 to March 31, 2022. The OCC reports that Bank of America held $27.32 billion in precious metals contracts on December 31, 2021 versus $29.441 billion on March 31, 2022. An increase of just 7.76 percent.



The Justice department wrote of JPM after its last felony charge


> “…knowingly and intentionally placed orders to buy and sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders before execution (‘Deceptive PM [Precious Metals] Orders’), including in an attempt to profit by deceiving other market participants through false and fraudulent pretenses and representations concerning the existence of genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts. By placing Deceptive PM Orders, the Subject PM Traders intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts into the markets, and to deceive other participants in those markets into believing something untrue, namely that the visible order book accurately reflected market-based forces of supply and demand. This false and misleading information was intended to, and at times did, trick other market participants, including competitor financial institutions and proprietary traders, into reacting to the apparent change and imbalance in supply and demand by buying and selling precious metals futures contracts at quantities, prices, and times that they otherwise likely would not have traded.”



And yet they are allowed to just keep gaming the system.
Open market systems, by the banks ,  for the banks.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

mullokintyre said:


> At a time when inflation is running high in virtually every country, when fiat currencies are seeing the results of massive increases of money supply, one might expect that PM's would be very much in demand and thus  being on a rising curve.
> Of course, we have the exact opposite.
> There have been numerous articles about just how much of the PM market is gamed by the big banks, the only question has really ever been exactly who are  the counterparties.
> From Wall Street on Parade
> 
> One of the reasons for the massive growth is that for some bizarre reason, the big banks have been allowed to  call so many of these derivitive products as exchange derivitive products.
> The OCC report had a footnote that explained this large jump.
> 
> 
> So for how long has this scam being running?
> 
> 
> The Justice department wrote of JPM after its last felony charge
> 
> And yet they are allowed to just keep gaming the system.
> Open market systems, by the banks ,  for the banks.
> Mick



Thanks @mullokintyre. An excellent post.

For completeness I'll include a link to a post from @ducati916 on a similar theme. 



ducati916 said:


> Mr GG,
> 
> This really depends on whether you are talking about paper gold or physical gold. The 2 markets are quite divergent currently.
> 
> Paper gold will fall when the markets enter a liquidity event, correlations move to 1. Physical gold premiums, particularly for retail will not fall much, if at all. The issue will be availability...can you actually get physical.
> 
> Paper gold will bounce back. If you are fast, you could probably buy near the bottom. The issue is that standing for delivery on the physical is likely to be fruitless.
> 
> Why you would want the physical.
> 
> At issue is the viability of fiat currencies. The liquidity event in the USD will force the Fed back to QE, pegged interest rates and even higher inflation. That inflation carries a risk of a hyper-inflation if the general population starts to dump dollars. If the USD goes, all fiats go.
> 
> At this point the IMF steps in with SDRs. SDRs are simply another fiat. If the SDRs fail to stem the tide of fiat dumping, the only way is to back the currency with gold. I think everyone now realises that cryptos are a non-starter.
> 
> Hence China, Russia, Brazil all the 'Stans' and a few others are creating a currency backed by a basket of commodities. This is not a new idea. It was extensively debated in the 1940's/50's. A bit unwieldy.
> 
> Individuals need physical gold/silver.
> 
> jog on
> duc




I am not overly concerned re the POG falling in USD atm., I still prefer my insurance against a mad world in Gold as it can be measured and is linked to the USD rather than the Ruble, Pound, Euro or AUD.  

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

I am am thinking we have all but finished  the capitulation  phase in gold.
I hope it will stay low or even go lower before some of the OZ  players  chuck out their quarterly reports, which will sort out the wheat from the chaff.
Then it will be time to buy more gold stocks.
Mick


----------



## DaveTrade

When things start to get confusing I like to break things down to hopefully get a clearer view of what is happening, give it the KISS treatment. This first chart shows the support and resistance levels on a monthly chart, the big picture without the noise.




Now zoom in to the daily chart and it's clear to see that the trend is down. The next question that needs to be answered is if the downtrend will drive through the monthly support zone or will buyers come in with strength to change the direction of the trend.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> When things start to get confusing I like to break things down to hopefully get a clearer view of what is happening, give it the KISS treatment. This first chart shows the support and resistance levels on a monthly chart, the big picture without the noise.
> 
> View attachment 143779
> 
> 
> Now zoom in to the daily chart and it's clear to see that the trend is down. The next question that needs to be answered is if the downtrend will drive through the monthly support zone or will buyers come in with strength to change the direction of the trend.
> 
> View attachment 143780




Yes, it does depend on your timeframe. 

We've gone up since Jan 16 and we've gone sideways since Jul 20, so looks like a medium term up trend and a short term pause.


----------



## bk1

You are looking in the wrong place...


----------



## DaveTrade

Sean K said:


> Yes, it does depend on your timeframe.
> 
> We've gone up since Jan 16 and we've gone sideways since Jul 20, so looks like a medium term up trend and a short term pause.




Yes of course the trend that you are looking at matters, this chart shows your monthly trend. We are saying the same thing in that if the monthly support holds and the daily trend reverses then the monthly trend will hold.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

DaveTrade said:


> Yes of course the trend that you are looking at matters, this chart shows your monthly trend. We are saying the same thing in that if the monthly support holds and the daily trend reverses then the monthly trend will hold.
> 
> View attachment 143784



Thanks for that chart @DaveTrade . I was going to post a quite inferior 10y one. 

Whether one buys or sells Gold, digs it up or leaves it hidden depends on one's timeframe, past experience and personality. 

I have held every ounce of gold I ever bought despite having seen it crash in value in the 80's. Long term it is gold. 

I have seen worse looking charts for gold in the past, and that was in peacetime. There is an undeclared war between us and the Chinese and Russian cousins presently. 

The POG could reverse by 20-50% in a week, it may fall but not as quickly. Who knows. I care not. In 20 years I'll repost quoting this thread. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

This is from Kitco News advising that TD Securities is now bearish on gold, having just liquidated their put spread strategy. This would appear to be in the context of *big funds moving out of all commodities*.

One could read this as nobody has a clue where the markets, commodities and bonds are headed, and one would be correct in that reading. 

I guess a market capitulation is possible, as is a recovery.

Who knows?

Basically TD Securities is saying " Trust me I'm a Fund". 

On with the dance.



> (Kitco News) With gold erasing $70 this week while the U.S. dollar surges and crude oil sells off, TD Securities is not ruling a "massive capitulation" event in gold.
> 
> The precious metal was trading near 8.5-month lows Wednesday as the U.S. dollar index rose to 20-year highs and crude oil fell below $100. August Comex gold futures were last at $1,737.10, down 1.52% on the day.
> 
> "A major capitulation event may be unfolding in gold, just a few days after our put spread expired (a strategist's kryptonite!). We see evidence that the steepest outflows from broad commodity funds since the Covid-19 crisis may be catalyzing a series of cascading liquidations from various speculative groups," said TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali. "This argues for substantial downside for gold in coming sessions as participants are forced to sell in a vacuum."
> 
> This trend is being observed across the whole commodities space, as investors exit their long positions amid fears of a potential recession denting future demand.
> 
> "A money manager rush for the exits is contributing to the slump in our demand signals, as broad commodity indices are weighed down by massive outflows amid recession fears. The top 15 funds by AUM have posted fund outflows above $1 billion over the past week alone, and are experiencing the steepest outflows since the Covid-19 crisis," Ghali noted. "This highlights that a potential capitulation from this cohort is contributing to the slump in prices for all commodities, which helps to explain the collapse in our real-time commodity demand indicator."
> 
> Ghali highlighted copper in particular, noting a sustained downtrend as the metal dropped to 20-month lows Wednesday. "Unless the red metal miraculously trades above $9,750/t by year-end, copper markets are settling into a sustained downtrend to reflect a sharp slowing in commodity demand," he said.
> 
> For gold, a drop below $1,800 an ounce and then below the key support of $1,780 an ounce points to "indiscriminate selling by broad commodity funds."
> 
> "[The selloff] has likely catalyzed a massive CTA selling program as trend followers respond to deteriorating momentum. This also coincides with coordinated selling from Shanghai's top gold traders as CNY-denominated prices begin to slump," Ghali added.




gg


----------



## mullokintyre

The  Brics countries must be pissing themselves laughing.
The USD index hit yearly highs, gold hits lows.
So what would you do if you were one of them?
They can offload those useless USD denominated assets, then  buy the physical, let the fool US banks play their derivative games and just keep accumulating physical gold.
Mick


----------



## Captain_Chaza

bk1 said:


> You are looking in the wrong place...



I agree !!
Gold is a hedge against a Falling USD
As you can see in the above  chart
The Big Buck is not falling
So who needs Gold?
Not Me!
 Give me as many  BIG Bucks  I can accumulate in these times ,I say


PS The only people I can think of who maybe  buying GOLD are 
INDIA's newly weds
BLACK MARKETEERS
& 
DRUG LORDS


----------



## divs4ever

i will gratefully accept the physical thanks ( gold and silver  ) whether it is jewelry , coins , cutlery , bars or even tooth fillings


----------



## DaveTrade

Captain_Chaza said:


> I agree !!
> Gold is a hedge against a Falling USD
> As you can see in the above chart
> The Big Buck is not falling
> So who needs Gold?
> Not Me!
> Give me as many BIG Bucks I can accumulate in these times ,I say




Yes the US$ is in a strong uptrend, if that trend continues then GLD will most likely break through it's monthly support zone.


----------



## DaveTrade

DaveTrade said:


> Yes the US$ is in a strong uptrend, if that trend continues then GLD will most likely break through it's monthly support zone.




I like to look at markets through a few different lenses to give me a more comprehensive view of what the market is doing. By understanding what a market is doing now gives me a better idea of what it may do next. Some people on this forum may know that I have created some of my own custom indicators and this chart below of the US$ is using one of my custom indicators.

It shows that the US$ has been losing strength in the trend since the beginning of May. As the market has made higher highs since early May, the Strength indicator has made lower highs.




The latest peak of the US$ on Wednesday this week shows a slightly lower reading on the Strength indicator.




This reduction in the strength of the trend in the US$ as GLD approaches it's monthly support zone provides some evidence that this support zone may hold. I don't make forecasts, I just look for evidence and see if the market acts in a manner that supports the evidence or not.


----------



## rcw1

Good evening
An interesting article on gold.  








						U.S. Mint gold bullion sales drop 76% in June year-over-year; silver bullion demand down 69%
					

Kitco News' general-interest stories takes a look at what is making headlines in the marketplace and how that is impacting precious metals prices



					www.kitco.com
				




Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## divs4ever

so have the Russians stopped buying ( swapping treasuries for gold ) ??   

but if i remember correctly ( from the alt. media web-sites )  getting the physical  delivered into your hot excited hands was  fairly hard for the retail folk  , i wonder if the supply side was the real story ( silver coins were hard to get as well , i hear )


----------



## ducati916

rcw1 said:


> Good evening
> An interesting article on gold.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Mint gold bullion sales drop 76% in June year-over-year; silver bullion demand down 69%
> 
> 
> Kitco News' general-interest stories takes a look at what is making headlines in the marketplace and how that is impacting precious metals prices
> 
> 
> 
> www.kitco.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1




Interesting article.

So premiums are not falling:




Why are premiums not falling?  No sellers.



I can buy or sell physical. There is obviously a spread. The US futures price is 1740.90



So the purchase price is not astronomically higher.



The premium is 4% +/- to buy and a 7% spread if selling.

So I have never really had any major issues buying gold. Pretty much pay and pick it up. Silver however:




5 weeks is optimistic. Closer to 8 weeks+

The premium is far higher at 30%. In addition you have that 500oz minimum, which is standard across any silver over here.





The physical silver market is tiny from a market cap. viewpoint. If retail becomes interested, supply would be swallowed up in days. The total market cap is +/- $1T. Gold is +/- $11T.

The actual available physical (gold or silver) to buy is a fraction of that, say +/- $16B for silver, possibly far less. It is hard to get accurate figures as JPM and BAC are so heavily involved in the COMEX. Currently SLV which hold unallocated silver on Trust. From memory the Trustee is the NY Bank of Mellon, which is associated with JPM.




The circles mark SLV supplying JPM with 12.5 million oz to be used as settlement for those futures contracts that stood for delivery in June.

Currently the paper/physical ratio:




It does tend to fluctuate. However the takeaway is that the leverage is very high. High leverage only works in your favour when it works. When it doesn't, markets can move very quickly against you.

Summary:

The point of holding physical is not to trade it. The point is to hold it as an insurance policy against the failure of fiat currencies. Silver is a far more speculative holding as its long term appreciation is a fraction of gold. However, when silver moves, it really moves. On a % basis far more than gold. Currently we sit at +/- 90:1. Historically anything below 30:1 is a good point to exchange your silver to gold or fiat. If you are really aggressive, below 15:1.

Essentially the Central Banks have lost control of their monetary systems as the debt compounds faster than GDP can be grown on a nominal basis (forget on a real basis). This is due worldwide to the level of debt.

Therefore, simple arithmetic provides that Central Banks must continue to expand their Balance Sheets. Currently the US Treasury has the proceeds of the last round of Bond sales in its account. This runs out probably this week or next. There will be more Bond sales to raise cash. If the Fed is the only buyer or majority buyer, then its Balance Sheet will continue to expand, despite ostensibly being in QT.

Every rate hike increases the payments on outstanding debt. Currently interest payments alone exceed tax revenues. Add in indexed Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Military spending, government payrolls, etc. and the ponzi scheme is ready to fall.

If the US dollar fails, all fiats fail. Fiats are based on trust, faith and force. Once you lose trust and faith, no amount of force will suffice.

This is why holders of physical are not selling.

All markets are manipulated in the short term. Longer term, reality always wins.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

JPMorgan Gold Desk Ripped Off Market for Years, Jurors Told
					

(Bloomberg) -- The precious-metals business at JPMorgan Chase & Co. operated for years as a corrupt group of traders and sales staff who manipulated gold and silver markets for the benefit of the bank and its prized clients, a federal prosecutor told jurors in Chicago.Most Read from...




					finance.yahoo.com
				



Only surprise is they manage to face the court game is still on, but they probably now have changed jurisdiction or method..not actual manipulation


----------



## rcw1

ducati916 said:


> Interesting article.
> 
> So premiums are not falling:
> 
> View attachment 143944
> 
> 
> Why are premiums not falling?  No sellers.
> 
> View attachment 143942
> 
> I can buy or sell physical. There is obviously a spread. The US futures price is 1740.90
> 
> View attachment 143945
> 
> So the purchase price is not astronomically higher.
> 
> View attachment 143946
> 
> The premium is 4% +/- to buy and a 7% spread if selling.
> 
> So I have never really had any major issues buying gold. Pretty much pay and pick it up. Silver however:
> 
> View attachment 143943
> 
> 
> 5 weeks is optimistic. Closer to 8 weeks+
> 
> The premium is far higher at 30%. In addition you have that 500oz minimum, which is standard across any silver over here.
> 
> View attachment 143947
> 
> 
> 
> The physical silver market is tiny from a market cap. viewpoint. If retail becomes interested, supply would be swallowed up in days. The total market cap is +/- $1T. Gold is +/- $11T.
> 
> The actual available physical (gold or silver) to buy is a fraction of that, say +/- $16B for silver, possibly far less. It is hard to get accurate figures as JPM and BAC are so heavily involved in the COMEX. Currently SLV which hold unallocated silver on Trust. From memory the Trustee is the NY Bank of Mellon, which is associated with JPM.
> 
> View attachment 143948
> 
> 
> The circles mark SLV supplying JPM with 12.5 million oz to be used as settlement for those futures contracts that stood for delivery in June.
> 
> Currently the paper/physical ratio:
> 
> View attachment 143949
> 
> 
> It does tend to fluctuate. However the takeaway is that the leverage is very high. High leverage only works in your favour when it works. When it doesn't, markets can move very quickly against you.
> 
> Summary:
> 
> The point of holding physical is not to trade it. The point is to hold it as an insurance policy against the failure of fiat currencies. Silver is a far more speculative holding as its long term appreciation is a fraction of gold. However, when silver moves, it really moves. On a % basis far more than gold. Currently we sit at +/- 90:1. Historically anything below 30:1 is a good point to exchange your silver to gold or fiat. If you are really aggressive, below 15:1.
> 
> Essentially the Central Banks have lost control of their monetary systems as the debt compounds faster than GDP can be grown on a nominal basis (forget on a real basis). This is due worldwide to the level of debt.
> 
> Therefore, simple arithmetic provides that Central Banks must continue to expand their Balance Sheets. Currently the US Treasury has the proceeds of the last round of Bond sales in its account. This runs out probably this week or next. There will be more Bond sales to raise cash. If the Fed is the only buyer or majority buyer, then its Balance Sheet will continue to expand, despite ostensibly being in QT.
> 
> Every rate hike increases the payments on outstanding debt. Currently interest payments alone exceed tax revenues. Add in indexed Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Military spending, government payrolls, etc. and the ponzi scheme is ready to fall.
> 
> If the US dollar fails, all fiats fail. Fiats are based on trust, faith and force. Once you lose trust and faith, no amount of force will suffice.
> 
> This is why holders of physical are not selling.
> 
> All markets are manipulated in the short term. Longer term, reality always wins.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Good afternoon ducati916,

Enjoyed reading your post.  Took awhile to fully understand it as rcw1 ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed ….    Anyways, your opening paragraph in summary,  _The point of holding physical is not to trade it. The point is to hold it as an insurance policy against the failure of fiat currencies, _couldn’t have said it any better, 💯 spot on, for mine.  

Just so happen to be in BrisVagus for State of
Origin 3 tomorrow night … go the Maroons!!! 
Bought some more yellow today from a merchant being dealing with over many many years. 

Kind regards 
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

I don't think this is unfolding like a lot of us gold bugs thought. Or, perhaps POG is a delayed reaction to inflation, we just have to wait it out...

USD strength seems to have been the killer. 

Support ahead, hopefully.


----------



## finicky

Maybe I should worry but can't be bothered after 2 decades of being jerked around by the gold market.

Some just released ideas from BtL finance - he's nibbling at some 'quality' producers and developers; he mentions NST and others. Thinks a likely relief rally is due. He's also interested in identifying copper mining opportunities particularly (me too), nickel, and other base metals (ADT - silver/zinc)
Well worth supporting him via the Patreon sub for other vids: https://www.patreon.com/user/posts?u=27729908


----------



## signalFollower

finicky said:


> Maybe I should worry but can't be bothered after 2 decades of being jerked around by the gold market.
> 
> Some just released ideas from BtL finance - he's nibbling at some 'quality' producers and developers; he mentions NST and others. Thinks a likely relief rally is due. He's also interested in identifying copper mining opportunities particularly (me too), nickel, and other base metals (ADT - silver/zinc)
> Well worth supporting him via the Patreon sub for other vids: https://www.patreon.com/user/posts?u=27729908





copper, gold and silver exposure at AAU if you wanted to do some read up on recent announcements

but with repsects to the Gold market jerking you around for two decades, I watched this earlier this morning from Arcadia Economics


----------



## Telamelo

Gold has been testing my patience lately but I'm still a strong believer that over time the yellow metal should do very well. 

Having said that, am in no rush at the moment of topping up on anymore Oz producer's as got enough already lol but taking more of a keen interest in promising explorer's turning to possible producer's over the short to medium term. I think that's where the biggest gains are imo


----------



## eskys

Asian markets are up at the moment, gold up US$12 at the moment, pre market up for tonight. Appears to me that punters don't know which way gold is going. If gold can hold or go up tonight, then we'll have a reprieve tomorrow hopefully, ( I don't know which way to bet) Think the Captain is right, one day at a time................


----------



## moXJO

I use the 'moxjo gold indicator' to base where the price is headed.
I felt like buying gold the other week= bearish 
But now I lost interest = sideways - drift up.

When I don't want it at all= bull run


----------



## eskys

NST has a sensitive announcement this morning


----------



## rcw1

Forex Reviews, Forex News & Daily Market Analysis | DailyForex.com
		


For mine, not a bad read.

Kind regards 
rcw1


----------



## peter2

Gold continuing to fall this evening, now $1682 USD.

In the not too distant future, in a newly established suburb outside a city in FNQ, a young child digging in their yard will unearth a golden brick. The child rushes to show a parent the uncovered treasure only to be disappointed that the treasure used to be valuable decades ago but has no value now. These golden bricks have been found in many of the newer suburbs. There are many stories or urban myths about the presence of these bricks. To cheer up the child, the parent tells the legend of the Bentley gold. 

Decades ago a rich man not wanting to see his current wealth dispersed amongst his many wives plotted how to keep it. About once or twice a year he and his driver, a mysterious man of European descent would take his car, a Bentley Arnage, which was an obnoxious carbon emitting gas guzzling car for a drive in the back roads of FNQ. While on this trip they would stop at random locations and bury one golden brick at a time. No-one knows what happened to that pair. Some stories mention that the driver eventually went back to live in a newly renovated castle in Europe. Unfortunately the castle was destroyed some years later by a Russian missile in the decade long Russian conflict in the northeast of Europe. No-one knows what happened to the rich man. 

In the Ross River Hotel, in Townsville there's a memorial wall with all the recovered golden bricks marked on a map of Qld. It's said that when anyone returns one of these bricks marked with a GG, the pub owner will give them their choice of a free drink or one bitcoin. Did you notice if your brick has a GG on it?


----------



## Sean K

peter2 said:


> Gold continuing to fall this evening, now $1682 USD.
> 
> In the not too distant future, in a newly established suburb outside a city in FNQ, a young child digging in their yard will unearth a golden brick. The child rushes to show a parent the uncovered treasure only to be disappointed that the treasure used to be valuable decades ago but has no value now. These golden bricks have been found in many of the newer suburbs. There are many stories or urban myths about the presence of these bricks. To cheer up the child, the parent tells the legend of the Bentley gold.
> 
> Decades ago a rich man not wanting to see his current wealth dispersed amongst his many wives plotted how to keep it. About once or twice a year he and his driver, a mysterious man of European descent would take his car, a Bentley Arnage, which was an obnoxious carbon emitting gas guzzling car for a drive in the back roads of FNQ. While on this trip they would stop at random locations and bury one golden brick at a time. No-one knows what happened to that pair. Some stories mention that the driver eventually went back to live in a newly renovated castle in Europe. Unfortunately the castle was destroyed some years later by a Russian missile in the decade long Russian conflict in the northeast of Europe. No-one knows what happened to the rich man.
> 
> In the Ross River Hotel, in Townsville there's a memorial wall with all the recovered golden bricks marked on a map of Qld. It's said that when anyone returns one of these bricks marked with a GG, the pub owner will give them their choice of a free drink or one bitcoin. Did you notice if your brick has a GG on it?




Saving that one. Gold.


----------



## divs4ever

you can send all  of that worthless  gold to me ( even bars with Russian  mint-marks )  i am building a bunker and need to reinforce  the lead lining 

 i'll find a use for it  .... LOL


----------



## frugal.rock

_“Cleared for the ILS runway two four left”


_


----------



## peter2

ECB raised interest rates for the first time in a decade, up to 0.5% (from 0%) and gold took off rallying >$20/oz.
Higher US jobless numbers didn't hurt it either.


----------



## frugal.rock

Some correlations...🤪


----------



## eskys

Aww, poor gg, has he gone into hiding? Haven't seen him for a while. Are you ok, gg?


----------



## frugal.rock

Gold Price - Where is it heading?
					

Maybe I should worry but can't be bothered after 2 decades of being jerked around by the gold market.  Some just released ideas from BtL finance - he's nibbling at some 'quality' producers and developers; he mentions NST and others. Thinks a likely relief rally is due. He's also interested in...




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				




Garps is Back to the Future or something.


----------



## mullokintyre

frugal.rock said:


> _“Cleared for the ILS runway two four left”_



Lets hope they don't have to do an aborted takeoff or just a circuit.
Mick


----------



## frugal.rock

It seems like it was a routine touch n go ?
Dare I say, a bottom bounce...?🧐🤔🤨🤞


----------



## Telamelo

Gold price chart analysis from 9:30 onwards


----------



## moXJO

moXJO said:


> When I don't want it at all= bull run



Goldbugs can thank my in cash payments


----------



## IFocus

peter2 said:


> Gold continuing to fall this evening, now $1682 USD.
> 
> In the not too distant future, in a newly established suburb outside a city in FNQ, a young child digging in their yard will unearth a golden brick. The child rushes to show a parent the uncovered treasure only to be disappointed that the treasure used to be valuable decades ago but has no value now. These golden bricks have been found in many of the newer suburbs. There are many stories or urban myths about the presence of these bricks. To cheer up the child, the parent tells the legend of the Bentley gold.
> 
> Decades ago a rich man not wanting to see his current wealth dispersed amongst his many wives plotted how to keep it. About once or twice a year he and his driver, a mysterious man of European descent would take his car, a Bentley Arnage, which was an obnoxious carbon emitting gas guzzling car for a drive in the back roads of FNQ. While on this trip they would stop at random locations and bury one golden brick at a time. No-one knows what happened to that pair. Some stories mention that the driver eventually went back to live in a newly renovated castle in Europe. Unfortunately the castle was destroyed some years later by a Russian missile in the decade long Russian conflict in the northeast of Europe. No-one knows what happened to the rich man.
> 
> In the Ross River Hotel, in Townsville there's a memorial wall with all the recovered golden bricks marked on a map of Qld. It's said that when anyone returns one of these bricks marked with a GG, the pub owner will give them their choice of a free drink or one bitcoin. Did you notice if your brick has a GG on it?





Just saw this one Peter you had me for a moment its very good and very much in the spirt of GG.


----------



## moXJO

So anyone know the reason Harry s dent (Grandmaster doomer) is saying gold will crash to $250?
I think it was a 5 year time frame.


----------



## Stockbailx

moXJO said:


> So anyone know the reason Harry s dent (Grandmaster doomer) is saying gold will crash to $250?
> I think it was a 5 year time frame.



Tell him he's Dreaming! Not possible given the economic price weigh in. Gold should stay a float, Unless we see the dollar rise in an impossible fashion...He be on the magic mushrooms?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

moXJO said:


> So anyone know the reason Harry s dent (Grandmaster doomer) is saying gold will crash to $250?
> I think it was a 5 year time frame.



Harry probably has subscriber's who pay him for doomish advice and trades Gold. 

If POG does crash to USD$250 you will be knocked over in the rush for people buying it. I'll be out front.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I suppose if everyone is saying POG is heading down, it must be about to go up. 

I might buy some more this arvo once I have supervised Švejk cleaning the dust and dirt off the Arnage, detailed inside and restocked the fridges. 









						Gold, silver and copper are ripe for short covering - analysts
					

Kitco News' general-interest stories takes a look at what is making headlines in the marketplace and how that is impacting precious metals prices



					www.kitco.com
				




gg


----------



## signalFollower

moXJO said:


> So anyone know the reason Harry s dent (Grandmaster doomer) is saying gold will crash to $250?
> I think it was a 5 year time frame.



he's probably done his revised Gold to Silver ratio projections on the assumption that silver is currently where it should be and a ratio of 15:1 is fair ?


----------



## moXJO

Ok did a little digging and he seems to be wrong a lot and losing bets. Can pretty much do the opposite and make bank.

So gold $250 seems to be based on a 1929 style crash and bubble popping. So it's basically asset armageddon.


----------



## moXJO

Don't like posting these videos but he seems to have called this crash 5 months ago (was it already crashing?) or possibly longer. Seems convinced this is the big one. 
Some of his statements are true. But that doesn't mean a lot. Government will still print and he will be chasing his tail again.


----------



## CityIndex

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I suppose if everyone is saying POG is heading down, it must be about to go up.
> 
> I might buy some more this arvo once I have supervised Švejk cleaning the dust and dirt off the Arnage, detailed inside and restocked the fridges.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold, silver and copper are ripe for short covering - analysts
> 
> 
> Kitco News' general-interest stories takes a look at what is making headlines in the marketplace and how that is impacting precious metals prices
> 
> 
> 
> www.kitco.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg



Gold prices did manage to find support last week as the US Dollar pulled back, with Thursday’s false break of 1700 a potential indication of significant demand around this level.

However, like with all other asset classes this week, near-term direction will likely come down to the FOMC Meeting. With another 75bps rate hike still widely expected, Chairman Powell’s press conference may have a greater impact on markets.

If emphasis is placed on the potential recession risks, the USD could extend its recent pullback and open the door for gold to push higher. Whereas continued focus on getting inflation under control could boost bets on further aggressive tightening, supporting the greenback higher, and, in turn, pushing gold lower.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how this all-important week shapes up.


----------



## qldfrog

CityIndex said:


> Gold prices did manage to find support last week as the US Dollar pulled back, with Thursday’s false break of 1700 a potential indication of significant demand around this level.
> 
> However, like with all other asset classes this week, near-term direction will likely come down to the FOMC Meeting. With another 75bps rate hike still widely expected, Chairman Powell’s press conference may have a greater impact on markets.
> 
> If emphasis is placed on the potential recession risks, the USD could extend its recent pullback and open the door for gold to push higher. Whereas continued focus on getting inflation under control could boost bets on further aggressive tightening, supporting the greenback higher, and, in turn, pushing gold lower.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how this all-important week shapes up.



And obviously, here in oz, the all important test is Gold vs AUD, so fine tuning between Gold in USD, and AUD vs USD.
I gave up trying to forecast these 2...


----------



## wayneL

qldfrog said:


> And obviously, here in oz, the all important test is Gold vs AUD, so fine tuning between Gold in USD, and AUD vs USD.
> I gave up trying to forecast these 2...



Important point re exchange rate risk. 👍


----------



## bluekelah

CityIndex said:


> Gold prices did manage to find support last week as the US Dollar pulled back, with Thursday’s false break of 1700 a potential indication of significant demand around this level.
> 
> However, like with all other asset classes this week, near-term direction will likely come down to the FOMC Meeting. With another 75bps rate hike still widely expected, Chairman Powell’s press conference may have a greater impact on markets.
> 
> If emphasis is placed on the potential recession risks, the USD could extend its recent pullback and open the door for gold to push higher. Whereas continued focus on getting inflation under control could boost bets on further aggressive tightening, supporting the greenback higher, and, in turn, pushing gold lower.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how this all-important week shapes up.



I think market is hoping for a FED pivot in language this FOMC. After all the technical recession is going to be confirmed on thursday night and FED HAS to ease up on rate rises as they cant really afford high rates with the 30trillion debt load.

Having said that, Janet Yellen did just say there are no signs of recession, thats in the face of negative -1.6% GDPnow data from atlanta FED. lol.... Not sure but they sure are trying to sound as optimistic for as long as possible. Probably trying to stabilise the market for one final sale by their friends and they will start shorting everything on thursday and make a pile.


----------



## rcw1

Good evening rcw1 Gold analysis as at 6.30pm 26/07/22:

Take gold from top of safe and place it in the bottom drawer of safe leave drawer ajar...

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## signalFollower

rcw1 said:


> Good evening rcw1 Gold analysis as at 6.30pm 26/07/22:
> 
> Take gold from top of safe and place it in the bottom drawer of safe leave drawer ajar...
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



or take it and convert it into silver at these high levels of the GSR nudging 93x again


----------



## rcw1

signalFollower said:


> or take it and convert it into silver at these high levels of the GSR nudging 93x again



Good evening signalFollower,
Silver in the drawer above.  Large safe 

Kind regards
rcw


----------



## Telamelo

Overnight saw Gold price +$34.30 to US $1,754 equates to AUD Gold price $2,512 +1.28%


----------



## divs4ever

moXJO said:


> So anyone know the reason Harry s dent (Grandmaster doomer) is saying gold will crash to $250?
> I think it was a 5 year time frame.





 what will a dollar be worth in 2027 ??   there is every chance  a zero or two ( or three or four ) will be lopped of the currency ( ala pre-war Germany )

 now if Harry would say an ounce of gold will only buy you a loaf of bread or packet of cigarettes  , that is entirely different  ( remember 'trillion' is a commonly used word now  , unlike in say  the year 2000 )

 one should always  compare gold to the physical goods it can be exchanged for  , 1971 broke the peg to currency 

 BTW all that debt revolving through the global economy  has to disappear for a global economy to have a chance to regain a healthy status 

 ( gold is an inert , lifeless metal  , that is it's curse and also it's blessing )


----------



## rcw1

Good evening

*Gold hits 3-week high*: Despite a tough month for gold, dropping to as low as 1682.70, it has gathered strength as it ends the month at 1724.64, rising 2.12 per cent this week 
*Silver back in the fight*: The silver spot price has increased by 5.82% to come to $19.92 USD contradicting last week’s pattern of decline 

Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I suppose if everyone is saying POG is heading down, it must be about to go up.



*It's *_all a mystery to me....  According to some, everyone is buying:_

Central  banks were net buyers in June quarter, growing global official reserves by 180 tonnes.

Net purchases over the six months totalled 270 tonnes which, when coupled with the 234-tonne inflow into ETFs, helped support gold at prices much higher than they would have been, for all the fears generated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.

The WGC said its recent central bank survey saw 25% of respondents said they intended to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.

Central bank first half purchases of 270 tonnes were in-line with the five-year first half average of 266 tonnes, according to the WGC.

Turkey was the biggest buyer during the first half, adding 63 tonnes to its gold reserves (32% of total reserves). Egypt was the second largest purchaser in the half, reporting a 44-tonne (+54%) increase in March. The country now holds 125 tonnes of gold, or 21% of total reserves.

In June, the Central Bank of Iraq announced that it had bought around 34 tonnes during the month – its first significant purchase since September 2018 – lifting its gold reserves to just over 130 tonnes

India continued its buying throughout the half, with gold reserves rising by 15 tonnes over this period.

Ireland was another notable purchaser during the first half of 2022, adding nearly 3 tonnes of gold to its reserves during Q1.

The WGC said Ireland was the only active buyer among developed market central banks, although its monthly additions have been modest and no purchases were made in the second quarter; since it began buying gold in August 2021, its total gold reserves have almost doubled. Ecuador also added almost 3 tonnes as well.

Mine production was also solid in the quarter and the half as Chinese production recovered from a number of mine closures in 2021 for safety reasons.

Mine production for the first half of the year hit record highs reaching 1,764 tonnes, up 3% on first six months of 2021.

Production was boosted by some companies mining higher grade deposits and the Chinese mining industry returning to normal output levels after safety stoppages last year. The production data is imprecise as many companies around the world are, at the moment, reporting their June quarter production and sales figures.

Meanwhile gold bar and coin demand remained stable year-on-year at 245 tonnes in the second quarter.

The WGC said “growth in demand came notably from India, the Middle East, and Turkey which helped to balance weakness in Chinese demand that was partially driven by continued coronavirus lockdowns..."

_And yet.._


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It would not surprise me to see Gold go ballistic tonight when it hits NY Nymex and Comex trading. 





gg


----------



## signalFollower

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It would not surprise me to see Gold go ballistic tonight when it hits NY Nymex and Comex trading.
> 
> View attachment 144824
> 
> 
> 
> gg



yeah I have been studying up and scrutinising the Futures COT's data which is at 52 week highs for both Gold and Silver in terms of the leats shorts (least pessimistic)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Well the last few wagons of the Gumnut Goldtrain are at last coming back close to profit. 



Trying to second and third guess the POG with the USD and AUD can be quite a pain. I wouldn't want to be depending on it for a short term punt. 

Much as I have nothing against Mrs Pelosi I was hoping she would do an Ivana Trump fall on the turps down the stairs at the American Embassy in Taiwan, without her having to end up 6 yards wide of the hole at the first green at Bedminster of course. 

gg


----------



## bluekelah

moXJO said:


> Don't like posting these videos but he seems to have called this crash 5 months ago (was it already crashing?) or possibly longer. Seems convinced this is the big one.
> Some of his statements are true. But that doesn't mean a lot. Government will still print and he will be chasing his tail again.



he is just selling hype.

few months back he saying Bitcoin would go to 500k lol and gold would drop by half.

Once the FED started rolling back the QE measures in November you could already predict there be a taper tantrum/correction(has happened everytime the life support been taken off post GFC, add in rate hikes in march and its a recipe for hard landing/stagflation with FED so far behind inflation. 

Yes FED will have to PIVOT and print again at some stage if Biden stays on, its just crazy to hike rates into a technical recession.

I believe POG will follow markets down for the rest of the year and likely very sharp and big rebound next year when the bad stagflation hits and FED is forced to pivot and print again and everyone starts realising cash is trash and runs into gold, as per monetary supply calculations unless FED does 6-7% rate rises, inflation will be above 6% till at least middle/late 2023.

1970s all over again baby! 
"Let's dance, let's shout
Shake your body down to the ground"


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Well it is all happening tonight.


China raising the ante on Taiwan.
US Job numbers surprise greatly to the upside.
USD rises against all currencies incl. AUD 
Gold lost 1.3% in under an hour.

The AUD lost 1.3% in under an hour. 

Percentages all approx. I'm none too good at subtraction nor long division. 

So as of now. 

Gold USD $1770
          AUD $2574

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just a warning to those trading Gold that *spoofing* is becoming a major problem.

For an explanation please google "spoofing gold"  or read this article from kitco.com and follow yer nose. 









						CFTC charges World Series of Poker player with manipulating gold and silver markets
					





					www.kitco.com
				




It is unfortunately not done just by shysters like Shak who features in the article but also by large criminal organisations and JPMorgan Chase, the latter are defending a case at the moment. I presume other merchant banks are involved as well. The large merchant and fund houses are really just legal large criminal organisations. 

So buyer beware. 

It is another reason why I stick to physical and avoid derivatives or futures in Gold. 

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just a warning to those trading Gold that *spoofing* is becoming a major problem.




Unless you are making leveraged trades based on the contents of the order book it is not really a problem.


----------



## Sean K

How many times is this?


----------



## wayneL

Sean K said:


> How many times is this?
> 
> View attachment 145234



The fines are just a business expense


----------



## DaveTrade

DaveTrade said:


> When things start to get confusing I like to break things down to hopefully get a clearer view of what is happening, give it the KISS treatment. This first chart shows the support and resistance levels on a monthly chart, the big picture without the noise.
> 
> View attachment 143779
> 
> 
> Now zoom in to the daily chart and it's clear to see that the trend is down. The next question that needs to be answered is if the downtrend will drive through the monthly support zone or will buyers come in with strength to change the direction of the trend.
> 
> View attachment 143780




*An update on these charts;





*


----------



## noirua

Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week
					

The Fed Chair delivered a hawkish speech outlining the central bank's campaign to rein in rising prices.




					www.cnbc.com
				



Gold mining stocks fall sharply​In an ugly day for the markets overall, gold mining stocks are taking it on the chin.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF has fallen more than 5%, underperforming the major market averages. The fund has now fallen more than 38% from its recent peak in early April.
Several individual mining stocks were down more than 7%, including Coeur Mining and IAMGOLD.
Gold settled down 1.22% for the day, notching a negative week for the precious metal.
_—Jesse Pound, Gina Francolla_


----------



## ducati916

Just a different perspective on the POG.







Gold is doing its thing. Pretty much nothing safer.

Silver is the obvious play here if you enjoy living a little on the wild side.

If you are looking for long term protection from the excesses of government then:




Now the 'official' figures are arguable. However for this purpose I'll simply accept them.

If you bought silver in 1969 at $5oz you would have 20oz worth $375.60. So it doesn't really protect you that well.
If you bought gold at $35oz you would have had 2.850z worth $4989.70 today. Absolutely swamping the dollar value of $780.21

However:

Periodically, silver goes on a % tear as against gold (both being money) and at that point, holding silver and converting into gold is a good speculation.




jog on
duc


----------



## InsvestoBoy

noirua said:


> Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week
> 
> 
> The Fed Chair delivered a hawkish speech outlining the central bank's campaign to rein in rising prices.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold mining stocks fall sharply​In an ugly day for the markets overall, gold mining stocks are taking it on the chin.
> The VanEck Gold Miners ETF has fallen more than 5%, underperforming the major market averages. The fund has now fallen more than 38% from its recent peak in early April.
> Several individual mining stocks were down more than 7%, including Coeur Mining and IAMGOLD.
> Gold settled down 1.22% for the day, notching a negative week for the precious metal.
> _—Jesse Pound, Gina Francolla_




I was a tiny bit (~2%) underweight gold and thought it'd be cute to buy some AEM instead of PHYS (or heading all the way to the city for a bullion buy).

Stayed up past my bedtime to buy the NYSE open on Thursday night to nearly perfectly top tick the entry at $46 😬




Meanwhile...


----------



## divs4ever

wayneL said:


> The fines are just a business expense



 more like sharing out the loot  .. the lawyers get some , the judges get some , the politicians ( sometimes ) get some  ( called campaign donations )


----------



## Sean K

A lot of people were calling a breakout around the blue circle above 1850 ish, me included, then it hit the previous high and imploded. Maybe JP Morgan's work. That big C&H we were talking about that would propel POG to 2600 looks a tenuous idea at the moment. Fingers crossed that blue line holds. 

Having said that, a lot of producing gold miners are flush with cash and have an AISC well below the $1400 mark.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> A lot of people were calling a breakout around the blue circle above 1850 ish, me included, then it hit the previous high and imploded. Maybe JP Morgan's work. That big C&H we were talking about that would propel POG to 2600 looks a tenuous idea at the moment. Fingers crossed that blue line holds.
> 
> Having said that, a lot of producing gold miners are flush with cash and have an AISC well below the $1400 mark.
> 
> View attachment 146180



I'm carrying a large insurance policy @Sean K  on my other investments via Gold which despite all the moves on stocks and commodities does not seem like money well spent should Gold dip below US$1680, which I believe was touched a little while ago ( I'll have to check ).

Having said that I will sell if the low is breached and be happy to have paid my commission. I did make some kopeks leading up to the point you mentioned, so it is not all doom. 




If anyone does happen to know what the future is could they possibly DM me. 

I will of course hold atm. as my losses are not overly significant though not insignificant on Gold due to the lower AUD and I only have one golder GOR in a small trading account. 

It is a crazy world, topsy turvy, with no obvious precedents. 

So for gawds sake don't anyone do their own research. It will be as bad as the muppets who get paid for publishing recommendations. 

gg


----------



## DaveTrade

I still have down bias on GLD at the moment but how it reacts to the support zone below will be telling. There is a glimmer of hope that this zone may hold and turn the market up, take a look at the daily chart below.



On the daily chart it looks like it will reach the support zone at a higher strength level than it had the last time it was there around mid July. This gives some positive divergence on strength.


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> So for gawds sake don't anyone do their own research. It will be as bad as the muppets who get paid for publishing recommendations.



It's a bit of a quandary...
Pro's & cons both ways.
Long term chart looks like it could easily test $1600, possibly $1500.

Boiling it down to the simplest denominator;
With the price being up from mid 2019, the supply side would/ should be kicking in quite well by now.
Hard to get decent stats for covid years to prove this though, however world production was on the rise into 2019 then obviously eased off, despite the higher prices, but the supply flurry is definitely on now.
I would think demand is  depressed.
Reduced manufacturing, supply & transport bottlenecks, inflation/ cost of living etc.

Is there any macro pro's I'm missing that are going to reverse it and push it up?
Just my


----------



## qldfrog

frugal.rock said:


> It's a bit of a quandary...
> Pro's & cons both ways.
> Long term chart looks like it could easily test $1600, possibly $1500.
> 
> Boiling it down to the simplest denominator;
> With the price being up from mid 2019, the supply side would/ should be kicking in quite well by now.
> Hard to get decent stats for covid years to prove this though, however world production was on the rise into 2019 then obviously eased off, despite the higher prices, but the supply flurry is definitely on now.
> I would think demand is  depressed.
> Reduced manufacturing, supply & transport bottlenecks, inflation/ cost of living etc.
> 
> Is there any macro pro's I'm missing that are going to reverse it and push it up?
> Just my



as a gold bull, I hate to say you are probably right ,until Fiats completely lose it..just a few bank runs, couple of internet major outages locking card usage and cash access  from atm and  etc..but could take a couple of years


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold is looking perilous. 




gg


----------



## rcw1

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Gold is looking perilous.
> 
> View attachment 146264
> 
> 
> gg



Hello Garpal Gumnut, 
rcw1 will piggy back it into blue ish territority...  plus  ...  Let you know if experience any difficulty ha ha ha ha

Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rcw1 said:


> Hello Garpal Gumnut,
> rcw1 will piggy back it into blue ish territority...  plus  ...  Let you know if experience any difficulty ha ha ha ha
> 
> Have a very nice evening.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



I'll not lose any sleep now knowing it is in capable hands @rcw1 

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

I'm bit confused! I've always been under the impression that when the AUD goes down, the POG goes up. Lately since late August the AUD price has been going down. The last few days the AUD has been suffering from lower highs, lower lows. The same could be said for the price of gold AU. You would think that the price of gold AU would be doing the opposite, higher lows higher highs. But not to be, just when I thought I had it mastered. What gives, what holding POG AU down?...


----------



## rcw1

Stockybailz said:


> I'm bit confused! I've always been under the impression that when the AUD goes down, the POG goes up. Lately since late August the AUD price has been going down. The last few days the AUD has been suffering from lower highs, lower lows. The same could be said for the price of gold AU. You would think that the price of gold AU would be doing the opposite, higher lows higher highs. But not to be, just when I thought I had it mastered. What gives, what holding POG AU down?...
> 
> View attachment 146278
> 
> View attachment 146279



Good morning Stockybailz,
rcw1 gets confused too.  This guide helps with rcw1 deliberations and then tries to join up all the dots.  



Reference  ABC Gold.

Disclosure:  rcw1 holds gold.
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Stockbailx

rcw1 said:


> Good morning Stockybailz,
> rcw1 gets confused too. This guide helps with rcw1 deliberations and then tries to join up all the dots.



Obviously there is some other fundamental's keeping the price of gold AU down. I mean what else measures the AU gold price. I understand commonity's are falling through out the market. So perhaps it's something in the bigger picture?


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Obviously there is some other fundamental's keeping the price of gold AU down. I mean what else measures the AU gold price. I understand commodity's are falling through out the market. So perhaps it's something in the bigger picture?



Think I worked it out there only one obvious thing that come to mind and that's supply and demand. As explained in the following link;

Another reason gold prices fluctuate is due to supply and demand — a basic and fundamental principle of economics. Many experts believe that there is an inadequate amount of gold as compared to current demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices rise. When supply exceeds demand, prices drop. 

Although there isn’t a sole cause for fluctuating gold prices, there are three primary culprits, including:


Investor behavior
Supply
Demand
These factors often overlap with each other, causing a chain reaction — for example, the gold supply frequently affects investor behavior, raising the demand. Inversely, the investor’s behavior can also affect the supply. They all work together and play a part in fluctuating gold prices.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rcw1 said:


> Good morning Stockybailz,
> rcw1 gets confused too.  This guide helps with rcw1 deliberations and then tries to join up all the dots.
> 
> View attachment 146287
> 
> Reference  ABC Gold.
> 
> Disclosure:  rcw1 holds gold.
> Have a very nice day, today.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Will post later. 

Digging. 

gg


----------



## rcw1

Stockybailz said:


> Obviously there is some other fundamental's keeping the price of gold AU down.* I mean what else measures the AU gold price. *I understand commonity's are falling through out the market. So perhaps it's something in the bigger picture?



Good afternoon
Prices go up and they go down ...

Someone more learned than rcw1 may have the answer and or alternatively a much better contribution to this matter.

Anyways, these (4) four points interwoven come to mind as a result of an accumulation of reading, listening, experience and lastly assumption:

Banks maintain reserves of paper currency and gold.   It is anticipated that the price of gold generally rises as central banks diversify their monetary reserves away from paper currency and towards gold;
Gold is commonly known as a hedge for inflation;
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed is unlikely to withdraw the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes which will in effect more than likely combat inflationary economic conditions/there has been widespread media attention on this even well before Powell communicated the obvious; and
With a rapid rise in interest rates, traders flock to fixed-income investments and banks adhere to fiat money more so than gold.
Therefore all in all demand falls.

Appreciate further comment on this.

Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Will post later.
> 
> Digging.
> 
> gg



So you bought a spade also to dig alongside Svek?
Are you in a hurry? 🙀


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon
> Prices go up and they go down ...
> 
> Someone more learned than rcw1 may have the answer and or alternatively a much better contribution to this matter.
> 
> Anyways, these (4) four points interwoven come to mind as a result of an accumulation of reading, listening, experience and lastly assumption:
> 
> Banks maintain reserves of paper currency and gold.   It is anticipated that the price of gold generally rises as central banks diversify their monetary reserves away from paper currency and towards gold;
> Gold is commonly known as a hedge for inflation;
> Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed is unlikely to withdraw the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes which will in effect more than likely combat inflationary economic conditions/there has been widespread media attention on this even well before Powell communicated the obvious; and
> With a rapid rise in interest rates, traders flock to fixed-income investments and banks adhere to fiat money more so than gold.
> Therefore all in all demand falls.
> 
> Appreciate further comment on this.
> 
> Have a very nice weekend.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Ok, this is my take of the POG *at this point in time.*

1. USD goes up, POG goes down. So, e.g Fed interest rates, money supply, expectations of inflation etc. influence USD and thus Gold.

2. Speculators are presently massively shorting gold instruments, thus price will fall, until there is a short squeeze when it will go up.

3. War, famine, plague and pestilence increase POG *usually. *Why this is not increasing POG atm may be due to above first two.. A little bit of nuclear or the Chinese cousins taking Formosa back may change all that.

Trying to make any further fundamental sense apart from the above will do your head in.

Have a great weekend.

gg


----------



## LogoDesignAu

That's right. Au is solid. People will see some very great returns for awhile I guess.


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD is in a strong down trend and showing no signs of reversing;


----------



## Stockbailx

DaveTrade said:


> GLD is in a strong down trend and showing no signs of reversing;
> 
> View attachment 146493
> 
> View attachment 146494
> 
> View attachment 146495



I notice your talking US gold. AU gold going against the AUD grain, down as well. Demand is out, Supply is in!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

DaveTrade said:


> GLD is in a strong down trend and showing no signs of reversing;
> 
> View attachment 146493
> 
> View attachment 146494
> 
> View attachment 146495



A mere flesh wound.

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

rcw1 said:


> Good morning Stockybailz,
> rcw1 gets confused too.  This guide helps with rcw1 deliberations and then tries to join up all the dots.
> 
> View attachment 146287
> 
> Reference  ABC Gold.
> 
> Disclosure:  rcw1 holds gold.
> Have a very nice day, today.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1




Not sure this guide really offers the correct mental model.

What if the gold price goes up but it goes up less than AUDUSD? According to this chart it should be Quadrant 1 but it is not covered at all.

As I mentioned yesterday, OTC gold is the big mama of the market, so https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_arbitrage is the correct way to think about it.

AUDUSD, XAUUSD and XAUAUD make the triangle in this case.

This often tends to explain the institutional shorters that @Garpal Gumnut seems to think are directional bets/manipulation but are usually just arbs available to those with the appropriate size balance sheet.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold & Silver are "manipulated big time" is my take on thing's.. as given up trying to read/understand "potential AUD Gold price moves" however did "top up" on a whim @ AUD $2,490 the other week... so far so good lol


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Telamelo said:


> Gold & Silver are "manipulated big time" is my take on thing's.. as given up trying to read/understand "potential AUD Gold price moves" however did "top up" on a whim @ AUD $2,490 the other week... so far so good lol




I mean, gold has pretty much perfectly tracked market implied US real interest rates for more than two decades now...this is *not* a manipulated asset class.


----------



## ducati916

Correct, gold has been heavily manipulated since the 1930's.

Even with all of that manipulation:




Markets or rather the entire financial system is imploding and fast heading into a liquidity crisis that will drive a very high inflation, possibly even a hyper-inflation of the US dollar, to its ultimate failure.

Not only will gold save/preserve your wealth, it will potentially provide you with speculative type of profits.

jog on
duc


----------



## mullokintyre

Agree with the heavily manipulated responses for gold.
As a subset to this, both China and Russia have been heavy buyers of gold over the past years.
Given the enmity between the Chief manipulator (USA) and these countries, it makes sense for the chief manipulator to bring down the price of gold  to "punish" them.
Mick


----------



## InsvestoBoy

mullokintyre said:


> Agree with the heavily manipulated responses for gold.
> As a subset to this, both China and Russia have been heavy buyers of gold over the past years.
> Given the enmity between the Chief manipulator (USA) and these countries, it makes sense for the chief manipulator to bring down the price of gold  to "punish" them.
> Mick




So (you believe) your adversary is accumulating an asset and (you also believe) the 4D chess move here is to "bring down the price"...


----------



## mullokintyre

InsvestoBoy said:


> So (you believe) your adversary is accumulating an asset and (you also believe) the 4D chess move here is to "bring down the price"...



To what are you referring when you mention "my adversary"?
The US and its allies have lots of reasons to  bring downward pressure on gold.
Apart from what i have mentioned,  countries that issue fiat currencies without gold asset backing need to keep gold suppressed so as the investors do not shift out of  cash when the proverbial hits the fan.
The demand for USD is illogical and irrational,  and at some point that irrationality will come home to roost.
Just like the irrationality that keeps the other fiat currencies such as the Euro going, or the UK Pound, or the Yen.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I am quite pleased with the way the POG has kept its head above USD 1700 this week and the AUD/USD remains between 0.0067+ and 68+ roughly which translates to a stable price in AUD. 

Unless the cousins in London and overnight Comex panic I will sleep well this weekend. 

The cousins in Russia and China will be looking forward to holiday season soon, so POG should stay stable or rise through Xmas and in to our and Chinese NY. 

The Russian cousins may start falling out of high rise windows in greater numbers and any sort of turmoil is good for gold. There also may be a changing of the guard in the ranks of the oligarchs and boyars as they look for someone to blame for the miscalculation in Ukraine and with that gold bars will of course be flying. 

The Chinese cousins on the other hand must be getting sick and tired of cousin Xi herding them about with RAT and PCR's. They are a patient lot, then they number a billion I am told. I would have thought it would be more difficult to herd a billion than say 25 million. But there you go. Anyways by Chinese New Year there will be a build up of cash amongst that patient pale isolated billion to spend on the yellow metal. 

All gold holders have a good weekend.

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Garpal Gumnut said:


> All gold holders have a good weekend.
> 
> gg




London was buying last night for the first time in a while but rejection during COMEX sent us back into the ugly technicals.


----------



## Telamelo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am quite pleased with the way the POG has kept its head above USD 1700 this week and the AUD/USD remains between 0.0067+ and 68+ roughly which translates to a stable price in AUD.
> 
> Unless the cousins in London and overnight Comex panic I will sleep well this weekend.
> 
> The cousins in Russia and China will be looking forward to holiday season soon, so POG should stay stable or rise through Xmas and in to our and Chinese NY.
> 
> The Russian cousins may start falling out of high rise windows in greater numbers and any sort of turmoil is good for gold. There also may be a changing of the guard in the ranks of the oligarchs and boyars as they look for someone to blame for the miscalculation in Ukraine and with that gold bars will of course be flying.
> 
> The Chinese cousins on the other hand must be getting sick and tired of cousin Xi herding them about with RAT and PCR's. They are a patient lot, then they number a billion I am told. I would have thought it would be more difficult to herd a billion than say 25 million. But there you go. Anyways by Chinese New Year there will be a build up of cash amongst that patient pale isolated billion to spend on the yellow metal.
> 
> All gold holders have a good weekend.
> 
> gg



Well historically (if I recall correctly from memory)  Gold tends to do quite well during September/October (so finger's crossed).


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> Well historically (if I recall correctly from memory)  Gold tends to do quite well during September/October (so finger's crossed).




Indians start cranking it up in October.






						Indian Gold Buying Season - Forex Education
					

Gold is a precious metal that is acceptable as an asset all over the world. This is because it has an expected value and is fine as it is across the globe. That means you don’t have to get it converted into some other form or carry any legal paperwork (except for some cases where […]




					www.forex.in.rs


----------



## CityIndex

It could be worth keeping an eye on gold prices given the possibility of the US Dollar extending its pullback from its 20-year highs.

As opposed to the EUR/USD or GBP/USD, which will likely continue to come under pressure due to the region’s economic situation, XAU/USD is showing signs of forming a swing low after finding support at 1700 last week. The lack of hawkish Fed commentary due to their blackout period ahead of the FOMC Meeting, and expectations for US inflation to continue easing, may allow gold prices to break the resistance that has formed around 1740 this week.

All trading carries, and a hotter-than-expected CPI print tomorrow may reignite the greenback. Either way, it will be interesting to see how this develops over the next few days.


----------



## noirua

Live Gold Au, Silver Ag, Platinum Pt, Palladium Pd, and Rhodium Rh prices:
3 day gold: Https://www.kitco.com/images/live/goldw.gif'
3 day silver: Https://www.kitco.com/images/live/silverw.gif'
Australian Gold Chart: Http://goldprice.org/charts/gold_3d_b_o_AUD.png
1 year gold: Https://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au0365nys.gif'
1 year silver: https://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag0365nys.gif'
 Au, Ag, Pt, Pd, Rh - http://www.kitconet.com/images/sp_en_8.gif


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Another rejection during COMEX overnight.

This is purely a feeling, but I get the impression that parties who hold significant amounts of gold are dislodging it into the market to cover other problems they're having. Thinking of some EM CBs that everyone made big noise about their past accumulation in particular...


----------



## DaveTrade

It looks like GLD is going lower from here, I don't think that the support zone will hold and lower prices are in our future.




Context;


----------



## CityIndex

DaveTrade said:


> It looks like GLD is going lower from here, I don't think that the support zone will hold and lower prices are in our future.



It wouldn't be surprising to see additional volatility in Gold ahead of the FOMC Meeting after Tuesday’s upside surprise in US CPI numbers. The ability to hold around last week’s lows may likely depend on the US Dollar trades over the next few days.

All trading carries risk, but if markets continue to reprice for the possibility of a Fed pivot being delayed even further, the precious metal may be exposed to a retest of its pandemic-era support zone.


----------



## Telamelo

US Gold @ $1,687 whilst AUD Gold lower as well @ $2,498


----------



## KevinBB

and, for those like me, who don't know where


CityIndex said:


> its pandemic-era support zone



is, here's the chart.





KH


----------



## rcw1

I've been noticing on Daily Gold chart, at the end of a trend it continues on for about $20 worth then reverses just to make sure it takes out all the hopefuls  

Soooooooo
 it could drop to 1667  in the next few days before reversing.  

Anyways, assumptions are just that 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Got distracted... rah rah test match.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold hammered overnight dropping another -1.94%


----------



## rcw1

Telamelo said:


> Gold hammered overnight dropping another -1.94%



A very good morning to ya Telamelo
At 6.12am Gold knocked out...in again at 1663.  Allot of US news come out last night ...   Not as depressing as the Rugby Union Test Match...

Edit spelling error

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## CityIndex

KevinBB said:


> and, for those like me, who don't know where
> 
> is, here's the chart.
> 
> 
> View attachment 146881
> 
> 
> KH



Yes, the key zone seems to be between 1670-1680, which has held as support roughly 6 times since mid-2020. All trading carries risk, but gold futures prices are currently testing the lower band. Will be interesting to see if this level holds yet again, or if prices finally break lower today.


----------



## Telamelo

rcw1 said:


> A very good morning to ya Telamelo
> At 6.12am Gold knocked out...in again at 1663.  Allot of US news come out last night ...   Not as depressing as the Rugby Union Test Match...
> 
> Edit spelling error
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Good morning to ya @rcw1 yeah after my strong coffee am feeling better already lol but true hey us Aussie's got robbed in the rugby last night what a bloody joke/shambles 
   

I'm eyeing Gold to possibly drop to as low as US$1,600-$1,625 range in the short term imo 

Good Luck! 

Cheers tela


----------



## Porper

Telamelo said:


> Aussie's got robbed in the rugby last night what a bloody joke/shambles



Not sure that has ever happened before in such a tight match. 

Foley played well until the last minute. Even his own teammates were yelling at him to kick the ball into touch, and he ignored them.  No idea why as the ref kept telling him to play.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold price chart analysis from 7:17 onwards..


----------



## rcw1

Telamelo said:


> Gold price chart analysis from 7:17 onwards..




Good evening Telamelo
topside then? Hafta be... 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Telamelo
Gold turned ... maybe ... ha ha ha ha

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I’d say up today and a leap further up tonight. 

Don’t do your own research. 

gg


----------



## wayneL

The perception is that rising interest rates are bad for POG.

Is perception reality? Or just perceptions and deceptions?

...and are we talking nominal or real interest rates?

It's been a long time since we've been in anything like this macro situation.

A bit of discussion here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520772-rising-interest-rates-gold-perception-reality

Disclaimer: I hold


----------



## eskys

Is this more about perception and reality? 

Interest rates going up, greenback gets stronger, our dollar gets weaker.........gold goes down.  Costs more for miners. Could be wrong


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

eskys said:


> Is this more about perception and reality?
> 
> Interest rates going up, greenback gets stronger, our dollar gets weaker.........gold goes down.  Costs more for miners. Could be wrong



It is very complicated, even more so when there are shorters and buyers on paper gold, options and futures, wars, famines, pestilence and pandemics . 

I just go with the vibe.

@wayneL 's post makes much sense of the inflation, interest rate, POG triangle. 

As for the rest, it is a matter of timing. 

It will be interesting, of that, I have no doubt. 

It is only money for some, unless you hold gold. It has outdone tulips. 



wayneL said:


> The perception is that rising interest rates are bad for POG.
> 
> Is perception reality? Or just perceptions and deceptions?
> 
> ...and are we talking nominal or real interest rates?
> 
> It's been a long time since we've been in anything like this macro situation.
> 
> A bit of discussion here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520772-rising-interest-rates-gold-perception-reality
> 
> Disclaimer: I hold




gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

eskys said:


> Is this more about perception and reality?
> 
> Interest rates going up, greenback gets stronger, our dollar gets weaker.........gold goes down.  Costs more for miners. Could be wrong






Not really sure how much more obvious it can be...


----------



## wayneL

InsvestoBoy said:


> View attachment 146981
> 
> 
> Not really sure how much more obvious it can be...



Perception is reality most times.

Gunna look into the correlation over the long term a bit further when I get time.


----------



## eskys

wayneL said:


> Perception is reality most times.
> 
> Gunna look into the correlation over the long term a bit further when I get time.



What about sentiment? Is it as real as perception?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

One of the major factors, if not the major factor that POG is not sky high atm. is the presence of Crypto. 

Crypto had overtaken gold as a "safe haven" for criminals such as, 

associates of corrupt governments here and overseas benefitting from dodgy grants and insider deals, 
kidnappers, 
hackers, 
mafia, 
ndrangheta, 
drug and people smugglers.  
Crypto's safety has has relied on anonymity and a rising price, both of which are reversing rapidly in the last 12 mo.

One of my "vibe" elements is a sudden crash in crypto to restore gold to it's rightful place. 

That is why I was suggesting to not panic on the retracement occurring in POG atm.

It is the vibe. 

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

wayneL said:


> Perception is reality most times.
> 
> Gunna look into the correlation over the long term a bit further when I get time.





InsvestoBoy said:


> I mean, gold has pretty much perfectly tracked market implied US real interest rates for more than two decades now...this is *not* a manipulated asset class.
> 
> View attachment 146538





Guess I'll just keep posting these same chart ad infinitum on this thread 





although recently :😬




which way one thinks those jaws might close (or whether the relationship is permanently broken) is left as an exercise for the viewer...


----------



## InsvestoBoy

(the ILB data is not total return so the jaws are not as wide as the chart implies)


----------



## Captain_Chaza

InsvestoBoy said:


> Until Now is Correct



The Pair Looks "BROKEN" to Me
View attachment 147003


----------



## rcw1

Good evening

Enjoy!!



Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

Captain_Chaza said:


> The Pair Looks "BROKEN" to Me
> View attachment 147003



Broken link Chaza.


----------



## eskys

Gold up .41% as I type despite being down heaps at one stage in the evening. Our dollar picked up this morning .6731, that helps.........VIX down, lots of green this morning


----------



## DaveTrade

The down move in GLD looks like it's running out of steam but this market has a lot of work to do this week if it is to turn the trend around to the upside. Capitulation below the recent major support zone could the just what is required to do the job.


----------



## ducati916

wayneL said:


> Perception is reality most times.
> 
> Gunna look into the correlation over the long term a bit further when I get time.




Perception and reality are exactly what the 'establishment' are banking on: ie. that perception trumps reality.








The reality however is that physical premiums are growing daily as increasing numbers wake up to the paper price manipulation. Of course this is nothing new, it has been policy since 1944 and Bretton Woods.




Premiums have been an ever-present phenomena. Of course in 1971 the gold price completely broke free as it could no longer be suppressed.

Of course with Russia and China setting up new trading exchanges, it is only a matter of time that the free market price is discovered via communistic governments. Ironic.

The take home is that the presence of premiums is a good sign for the POG.

jog on
duc


----------



## Knobby22

Not an inflation hedge anymore.


----------



## wayneL

^^when articles like that come out, it is probably is good at buy signal as any.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Knobby22 said:


> Not an inflation hedge anymore.




If you held gold at any point over the last 40 years in a diversified risk premia portfolio as an inflation hedge, you were wrong, but luckily you would have done quite well out of it anyway!

Why?

I direct your attention to *MONEYBALL FOR MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY* by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital Management. My copy of the paper is watermarked so I can't share it here but easy to get a copy from their website.

Out of 30 tested alternative asset classes, gold (USD pricing) performed in top 2 position for the most useful diversifier and is much more accessible than the winner (active long vol).

I don't really think it ever was an inflation hedge, but it sure is a fantastic portfolio hedge.

All that said, 2022 has been one of the most inflationary years in decades for Australia and those with some gold in their portfolio would not have regretted it YTD, especially if able to do some tactical rebalancing along the way:


----------



## wayneL

InsvestoBoy said:


> If you held gold at any point over the last 40 years in a diversified risk premia portfolio as an inflation hedge, you were wrong, but luckily you would have done quite well out of it anyway!
> 
> Why?
> 
> I direct your attention to *MONEYBALL FOR MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY* by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital Management. My copy of the paper is watermarked so I can't share it here but easy to get a copy from their website.
> 
> Out of 30 tested alternative asset classes, gold (USD pricing) performed in top 2 position for the most useful diversifier and is much more accessible than the winner (active long vol).
> 
> I don't really think it ever was an inflation hedge, but it sure is a fantastic portfolio hedge.
> 
> All that said, 2022 has been one of the most inflationary years in decades for Australia and those with some gold in their portfolio would not have regretted it YTD, especially if able to do some tactical rebalancing along the way:
> View attachment 147082



Chris Cole has done some fascinating work, especially that long vol aspect of his hawks and serpent paper (or whatever it was called). Thank for reminding me about it 👍


----------



## InsvestoBoy

wayneL said:


> Chris Cole has done some fascinating work, especially that long vol aspect of his hawks and serpent paper (or whatever it was called). Thank for reminding me about it 👍



I would definitely be sitting on a lower DD for the year if I had been paying more attention to long vol in bonds and getting some CTA exposure but you can't win 'em all and cash is starting to show returns, certainly relative returns YTD vs stocks and bonds are *fantastic* for cash .

I am pretty sure last months interest payment in my cash accounts was more than my total cumulative interest payments over the last 3 years.

Here's a few counterintuitive links for @Knobby22 ...excuse the offtopic:

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/998988/cash-as-an-inflation-hedge
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-inside...-invest-to-protect-against-inflation/a1519744
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/the-simplest-asset-to-hedge-against-inflation/

(possibly talking my book with 25% cash allocation)


----------



## Knobby22

InsvestoBoy said:


> I would definitely be sitting on a lower DD for the year if I had been paying more attention to long vol in bonds and getting some CTA exposure but you can't win 'em all and cash is starting to show returns, certainly relative returns YTD vs stocks and bonds are *fantastic* for cash .
> 
> I am pretty sure last months interest payment in my cash accounts was more than my total cumulative interest payments over the last 3 years.
> 
> Here's a few counterintuitive links for @Knobby22 ...excuse the offtopic:
> 
> https://www.morningstar.com/articles/998988/cash-as-an-inflation-hedge
> https://citywire.co.uk/funds-inside...-invest-to-protect-against-inflation/a1519744
> https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/the-simplest-asset-to-hedge-against-inflation/
> 
> (possibly talking my book with 25% cash allocation)



Thanks Investoboy.
Good reads. Nice to see evidence.

My take is that history shows short term cash, e.g 30 day investments are a good investment in the short term when inflation is rising.
Commodities and gold can be a gamble. Energy stocks, REITs consumer staples do well. Utilities and growth stocks don't.

Gold bugs love gold but history shows that their faith is only rewarded half the time.

I personally think in this instance that this will not be one of them as gold is already inflated.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'll be a happier numpty should the POG rise by $US 100 and the AUD/USD falls a cent overnight. 

Not impossible.

gg


----------



## wayneL

Knobby22 said:


> Thanks Investoboy.
> Good reads. Nice to see evidence.
> 
> My take is that history shows short term cash, e.g 30 day investments are a good investment in the short term when inflation is rising.
> Commodities and gold can be a gamble. Energy stocks, REITs consumer staples do well. Utilities and growth stocks don't.
> 
> Gold bugs love gold but history shows that their faith is only rewarded half the time.
> 
> I personally think in this instance that this will not be one of them as gold is already inflated.



I don't think the view of gold as a hedge for inflation can be taking over the short, or even medium-term. It must be taken as a view over several years or even decades.

As such it is not the only hedge in this space.

And, due to the speculative nature, one must be very careful about the entry point.

If we consider the purchasing power of  a dollar, whether of the American or Australian variety, versus the purchasing power of an ounce of gold.... With a very long term, least squares view of such, it is very clear that holding of gold v the holding of cash, is in fact an inflation hedge.

But one must take several steps back and view over the  very long-term.

I would add that gold is not the only game in town in this regard, that does carry the greatest perception/deception thereof.

FWIW

Edited to expunge autocorrect absurdities


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Quite an interesting article on the shorting of Gold in London causing an artificial suppression of the POG.

Russia will commence an alternate exchange to the LBMA. 









						Russia's new gold exchange could challenge LBMA and reveal gold's 'fair' price - Matthew Piepenburg
					





					www.kitco.com
				




gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Quite an interesting article on the shorting of Gold in London causing an artificial suppression of the POG.
> 
> Russia will commence an alternate exchange to the LBMA.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's new gold exchange could challenge LBMA and reveal gold's 'fair' price - Matthew Piepenburg
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kitco.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg




Reading kitco will rot your brain GG.

I am sure if you go back some years you can find many credulous articles from them about the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange bringing about the end of those dastardly LBMA shorters, or JPM, or whoever.


----------



## finicky

A picture from @NorthstarCharts on twitter today.
Very patient approach of using Quarterly intervals and 28 period ma (=7 year ma). This accepts sacrificing some of the early gain but a lot remains. 
So he chooses gold to spx ratio as key and says he will only buy when trendline and 7 year moving average are crossed - reflecting two previous secular bull markets. Looks like best that can be said of the current situation is that the ratio is riding not far from the rail?

Held


----------



## qldfrog

finicky said:


> A picture from @NorthstarCharts on twitter today.
> Very patient approach of using Quarterly intervals and 28 period ma (=7 year ma). This accepts sacrificing some of the early gain but a lot remains.
> So he chooses gold to spx ratio as key and says he will only buy when trendline and 7 year moving average are crossed - reflecting two previous secular bull markets. Looks like best that can be said of the current situation is that the ratio is riding not far from the rail?
> 
> Held
> 
> View attachment 147118



Interesting and nice approach.thanks


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold is holding atm. in USD and just needs to move back up over $US 1785 with some force to crack $US 1800.

The Aussie will have probs not going to 0.6600 or below , so for all Australian Gold holders it should be a peaceful weekend. 

gg


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon
Hope everybody had a good day, today. 
FYI should you be so inclined:  Gold at 14:10




edit - gold counter
Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Trying to run stops at 2560 before London opens...one hopes for the best but the supply above this area has just been monstrous all year, doesn't seem impossible that when the heavy volume sessions start it'll be "sold to you".


----------



## Captain_Chaza

LOOKS GREAT!
Hold on Tight!


----------



## Captain_Chaza

finicky said:


> A picture from @NorthstarCharts on twitter today.
> Very patient approach of using Quarterly intervals and 28 period ma (=7 year ma). This accepts sacrificing some of the early gain but a lot remains.
> So he chooses gold to spx ratio as key and says he will only buy when trendline and 7 year moving average are crossed - reflecting two previous secular bull markets. Looks like best that can be said of the current situation is that the ratio is riding not far from the rail?
> 
> Held
> 
> View attachment 147118



This would have to be THE WORST chart I have ever witnessed

YOU MUST BE KIDDING!!!
Who on Earth studies  7 year delayed Moving Average  Data

The only one i can think of is the USA  FED
Some Say,
They are our public servants working at their Best 

IMHO 
Using  a 7 year delayed data chart/MA  they would not get a job in any of our local Milk Bars

GOLD is not what it used to be!


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> Trying to run stops at 2560 before London opens...one hopes for the best but the supply above this area has just been monstrous all year, doesn't seem impossible that when the heavy volume sessions start it'll be "sold to you".
> 
> View attachment 147401




blep.

I stayed up past my bedtime to watch this happen in realtime after the NYSE open.


----------



## DaveTrade

Captain_Chaza said:


> This would have to be THE WORST chart I have ever witnessed



Disagree Captain, the big picture gives you context.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

DaveTrade said:


> Disagree Captain, the big picture gives you context.




It is a chart crime.

1. The chart is not adjusted for total return of the stock index or the negative carry cost for XAU or physical gold.
2. If you plan to time long trades in one asset based on a ratio chart, you better be willing and able to short the other leg of the ratio. Otherwise you are only betting on outperformance vs another asset, not absolute returns. See point 1 again.
3. The chart is obviously overfit and contains precisely 4 datapoints on which it bases the entire conclusion.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

DaveTrade said:


> Disagree Captain, the big picture gives you context.




What context?
Where's the Gold Chart ?
Looks more like an Aussie Dollar chart to me
Not like my GOLD 3 Monthly Chart !

*Sailing for GOLD ...../ 3 Months at a Time*
ie Quarterly candlesticks just does not do it for me

*

*


----------



## eskys

Gold is down at the moment, our dollar down a tad, but EVN and NST are holding firm.......same thing was observed yesterday. I was wondering what was holding NST up yesterday. Is there something hidden that we cannot see? By the way, the technicals according to investing.com......................
Technical Summary​
Type5 Min15 MinHourlyDailyMonthlyMoving AveragesStrong SellSellSellSellSellTechnical IndicatorsStrong SellStrong SellStrong SellStrong SellStrong SellSummaryStrong SellStrong SellStrong SellStrong SellStrong Sell


----------



## DaveTrade

InsvestoBoy said:


> It is a chart crime.
> 
> 1. The chart is not adjusted for total return of the stock index or the negative carry cost for XAU or physical gold.
> 2. If you plan to time long trades in one asset based on a ratio chart, you better be willing and able to short the other leg of the ratio. Otherwise you are only betting on outperformance vs another asset, not absolute returns. See point 1 again.
> 3. The chart is obviously overfit and contains precisely 4 datapoints on which it bases the entire conclusion.





I don't try to read so much into this chart or expect it to be something that it's not. I like to look at markets from different angles and this chart is just showing a relationship that happened in the past. I don't think that anyone would trade from this chart alone, it's just another piece of information, and there are number of other unrelated pieces of information that indicate that gold could be turning north in the next couple of months.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

I'm not really sure why I can't stop watching this, I should sleep, but lol 2560


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Indians start cranking it up in October.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Indian Gold Buying Season - Forex Education
> 
> 
> Gold is a precious metal that is acceptable as an asset all over the world. This is because it has an expected value and is fine as it is across the globe. That means you don’t have to get it converted into some other form or carry any legal paperwork (except for some cases where […]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forex.in.rs



 but will they be buying it in US dollars this year  , there are other easy options ... now ( especially now Russian gold is excluded from Western markets )

 ALSO  since the drain on India's foreign reserves MIGHT be less impacted  , will India will less restrictive on imports


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Well well well....still a lot of wood to chop up ahead 2570-2580 (especially 2580) and then 2615-2665 (not shown) is the horrible range that broke the previously happy slow uptrend.


----------



## againsthegrain

InsvestoBoy said:


> Well well well....still a lot of wood to chop up ahead 2570-2580 (especially 2580) and then 2615-2665 (not shown) is the horrible range that broke the previously happy slow uptrend.
> 
> View attachment 147519



I have a feeling this is inline with the referendum, the results are known but anytime now could be the dday


----------



## InsvestoBoy

againsthegrain said:


> I have a feeling this is inline with the referendum, the results are known but anytime now could be the dday




What referendum?


----------



## againsthegrain

InsvestoBoy said:


> What referendum?



To annex Ukrainian regions into Russia which the Us and Ukraine said won't be recognised by the West.  This leads to a bigger problem as Ukraine will see those regions as Ukraine and plan on taking them back. From a Russian perspective a attack on Russian soil warrants the use of nuclear weapons.  It is planned to be officially announced today in Russia but already known that 98% support joining Russia. 

Soon after the war started gold ran to 2700 now on news of escalation it could be priming up yet again


----------



## InsvestoBoy

againsthegrain said:


> To annex Ukrainian regions into Russia which the Us and Ukraine said won't be recognised by the West.  This leads to a bigger problem as Ukraine will see those regions as Ukraine and plan on taking them back. From a Russian perspective a attack on Russian soil warrants the use of nuclear weapons.  It is planned to be officially announced today in Russia but already known that 98% support joining Russia.
> 
> Soon after the war started gold ran to 2700 now on news of escalation it could be priming up yet again




Interesting thinking, TBH, I hadn't considered it at all, but the Q122 price action was definitely heavily influenced by the invasion.


----------



## againsthegrain

InsvestoBoy said:


> Interesting thinking, TBH, I hadn't considered it at all, but the Q122 price action was definitely heavily influenced by the invasion.



I would prefer if this was not influenced by the war but a nice clean uptrend, I guess we will see.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

againsthegrain said:


> I would prefer if this was not influenced by the war but a nice clean uptrend, I guess we will see.




2200-2900 is all new zones after the big run from 1600, significant wood chopping is to be expected.

Could easily spend a long time here without it being surprising...


----------



## rcw1

Gold is flat and the Dow is rising.

Good night

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## aus_trader

Up a bit overnight for Gold and Silver even better...


----------



## Tyre Kicker

9% jump for silver. Wow!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

againsthegrain said:


> I would prefer if this was not influenced by the war but a nice clean uptrend, I guess we will see.



Who knows. 

I’m smilin’ though. 

Not many from Alexander the Great’s day still holding papyrus or horse n cart stocks. 

Gold however…

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> Well well well....still a lot of wood to chop up ahead 2570-2580 (especially 2580) and then 2615-2665 (not shown) is the horrible range that broke the previously happy slow uptrend.
> 
> View attachment 147519




Can't really believe we are in the 2615-2665 range so quickly...returning to the scenes of the crimes


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Looking at some cross asset charts, I am really kicking myself at this point.

Mid June I had rebalanced heavily into long duration Government bonds (which had been smashed) and by late July I was sitting on a hefty overweight as they bounced ~15%.

I was feeling psychological exhaustion from the previous decline in bonds and thought to let them run instead of rebalancing that overweight into gold which at the time was trading 2475-2500.

Bonds proceeded to slide to test their lows and my opportunity to sell that hefty overweight into the highs and buy more gold at the July lows was lost.





Big alpha miss from me


----------



## againsthegrain

InsvestoBoy said:


> Looking at some cross asset charts, I am really kicking myself at this point.
> 
> Mid June I had rebalanced heavily into long duration Government bonds (which had been smashed) and by late July I was sitting on a hefty overweight as they bounced ~15%.
> 
> I was feeling psychological exhaustion from the previous decline in bonds and thought to let them run instead of rebalancing that overweight into gold which at the time was trading 2475-2500.
> 
> Bonds proceeded to slide to test their lows and my opportunity to sell that hefty overweight into the highs and buy more gold at the July lows was lost.
> 
> View attachment 147655
> 
> 
> 
> Big alpha miss from me



when gold fell to 2475-2500 my emotional brain was telling me to sell, my logical brain said maybe buy bit more,  but seems im braindead did neither


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I


againsthegrain said:


> when gold fell to 2475-2500 my emotional brain was telling me to sell, my logical brain said maybe buy bit more,  but seems im braindead did neither



 I played Gold earlier between $US 1700 and 2000 and was lucky. 

Then I took a large insurance Gold position in AUD on my long term SMSF ASX stocks and am now even overall. 

Ass more than class. 

Where to now?

Who knows. Tomorrow is a foreign country to paraphrase LP Hartley’s The Go Between. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Who knows. Tomorrow is a foreign country to paraphrase LP Hartley’s The Go Between.
> 
> gg



for me, past bedtime


----------



## noirua

Episode 69 - Master Investor Sector Focus: Going for Gold - Master Investor
					

Listen to the Master Investors podcast episode #69 with Jim Mellon.




					masterinvestor.co.uk
				








						Jim Mellon - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> for me, past bedtime



Not in Kingsland 

Still on Australian time. 

gg


----------



## rcw1

rcw1 said:


> Gold is flat and the Dow is rising.
> 
> Good night
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



rcw1 bring some luck.
Gold is up and the Dow is rising.

Good night

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## eskys

I had great difficulty trying to gauge the direction of gold the last couple of days. EVN, NST and NCM held up well even though our dollar was down today....had me wondering if punters are thinking if the Greenback is getting weaker? Doesn't make sense if this is the case cos if US continues to put up interest rates, the Greenback will be stronger. Maybe our latest interest rates raise  last week is good news for our dollar?


----------



## ducati916

I suppose it really depends on your timeframe, but gold is going higher. Much higher. How much higher 15X.

Why?

Oil since August 1971 has been priced in USD, which were then recycled in USTs. Mr Putin has weaponised oil. Oil for Rubles or gold. This has necessitated a response from the rest of the world to sell USTs to obtain oil from OPEC. Oil of course is a currency. The most important currency.




And they are buying:




Gold with what is left over after buying oil.

Gold will become the floating neutral reserve asset of the world, replacing USD. The oil market is 15X larger than the gold market after 50yrs of being suppressed by the US and UK via COMEX and LBMA. Therefore gold will revalue 15X at current oil market capitalisation to provide that reserve asset to transact in oil.

The US are seeking to sue OPEC for reducing production:

Any doubt about the cohesion of OPEC+ was put to bed this week as the group’s summit in Vienna ended with a 2 million bpd production cut. This cut appears to have achieved exactly what the participating members wanted, namely higher oil prices. It appears that fears of a global economic slowdown have taken a back seat to oil market fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainty. Saudi Arabia, the country that will spearhead the production cuts (Russia is already producing at its decreased target), has put the Biden Administration between a rock and a hard place only several weeks before the midterm elections. Confronted with the prospect of rising gasoline prices, the White House needs to react swiftly if it does not want to be seen as weak.

_*White House Mulls Antitrust Case Against OPEC+.*_ On the back of the OPEC+ 2 million bpd production cut, the Biden Administration threatened to trigger anti-trust action against the alliance, with legal committees in both chambers of Congress approving legislation that would allow the White House to do so. 

ETFs such as GLD et al will settle in cash. Their prospectus(s) contractually allow this. Emulate the Central Banks: buy physical gold/silver. You will not be settled in gold by many of the ETFs. PHYS will (to date) but everything else is suspect until proven. By the time that you require proof, it may be too late.

Also, it looks very much like 'Operation Twist' (to address illiquidity in the Treasury market) may be turned back on. Watch this space. That is then a return to a secular inflation. A 1970's rerun is upon us.

jog on
duc


----------



## eskys

ducati916 said:


> I suppose it really depends on your timeframe, but gold is going higher. Much higher. How much higher 15X.
> 
> Why?
> 
> Oil since August 1971 has been priced in USD, which were then recycled in USTs. Mr Putin has weaponised oil. Oil for Rubles or gold. This has necessitated a response from the rest of the world to sell USTs to obtain oil from OPEC. Oil of course is a currency. The most important currency.
> 
> View attachment 147813
> 
> 
> And they are buying:
> 
> View attachment 147812
> 
> 
> Gold with what is left over after buying oil.
> 
> Gold will become the floating neutral reserve asset of the world, replacing USD. The oil market is 15X larger than the gold market after 50yrs of being suppressed by the US and UK via COMEX and LBMA. Therefore gold will revalue 15X at current oil market capitalisation to provide that reserve asset to transact in oil.
> 
> The US are seeking to sue OPEC for reducing production:
> 
> Any doubt about the cohesion of OPEC+ was put to bed this week as the group’s summit in Vienna ended with a 2 million bpd production cut. This cut appears to have achieved exactly what the participating members wanted, namely higher oil prices. It appears that fears of a global economic slowdown have taken a back seat to oil market fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainty. Saudi Arabia, the country that will spearhead the production cuts (Russia is already producing at its decreased target), has put the Biden Administration between a rock and a hard place only several weeks before the midterm elections. Confronted with the prospect of rising gasoline prices, the White House needs to react swiftly if it does not want to be seen as weak.
> 
> _*White House Mulls Antitrust Case Against OPEC+.*_ On the back of the OPEC+ 2 million bpd production cut, the Biden Administration threatened to trigger anti-trust action against the alliance, with legal committees in both chambers of Congress approving legislation that would allow the White House to do so.
> 
> ETFs such as GLD et al will settle in cash. Their prospectus(s) contractually allow this. Emulate the Central Banks: buy physical gold/silver. You will not be settled in gold by many of the ETFs. PHYS will (to date) but everything else is suspect until proven. By the time that you require proof, it may be too late.
> 
> Also, it looks very much like 'Operation Twist' (to address illiquidity in the Treasury market) may be turned back on. Watch this space. That is then a return to a secular inflation. A 1970's rerun is upon us.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Hi ducati, my first post has gone missing.......so here I go again.

Thank you for your post.

Agree, gold is a limited resource which is expensive to mine and process.

I have a lot of missing links and dots, so unable to form a proper picture. I thought with the Bretton Woods System abolished by Nixon, the greenback is now the reserve currency. From what I understand, gold will never replace the greenback unless another President say so? That is not to say gold doesn't have value, indeed, it has............but with no yield, will not corrode etc......so I see it's not as valuable as it once was....but good for trading if I can get it right. 

Gold was down last night with our dollar taking a beating. Talks of more aggressive rate hikes...but let's not worry about that. Have a great weekend, ducati.


----------



## mullokintyre

eskys said:


> Hi ducati, my first post has gone missing.......so here I go again.
> 
> Thank you for your post.
> 
> Agree, gold is a limited resource which is expensive to mine and process.
> 
> I have a lot of missing links and dots, so unable to form a proper picture. I thought with the Bretton Woods System abolished by Nixon, the greenback is now the reserve currency. From what I understand, gold will never replace the greenback unless another President say so?



Perhaps a digital currency awaits the demise of the USD.
Of note is that when Nixon killed off Bretton Woods, an ounce of gold was worth $35.
that same ounce of gold  today is worth 1700.
That is why investors like gold.
Mick


----------



## eskys

mullokintyre said:


> Perhaps a digital currency awaits the demise of the USD.
> Of note is that when Nixon killed off Bretton Woods, an ounce of gold was worth $35.
> that same ounce of gold  today is worth 1700.
> That is why investors like gold.
> Mick



In reality, digital currency has been in existence for a long time. We transfer money in digital form and have a choice to have physical money too if we withdraw small amounts from the banks.

If US adopts digital currency, it will be in their greenback, so should work the same as what it is now. Don't know how it can happen solely going digital............the seniors of today will have a fit. 

Perhaps Nixon thought that gold as a universal currency was a threat to the greenback? Not substantiated fact, only my thoughts, Mick. And gold went up slowly with time because it's a precious metal and cannot be printed?


----------



## ducati916

eskys said:


> Hi ducati, my first post has gone missing.......so here I go again.
> 
> Thank you for your post.
> 
> Agree, gold is a limited resource which is expensive to mine and process.
> 
> I have a lot of missing links and dots, so unable to form a proper picture. I thought with the Bretton Woods System abolished by Nixon, the greenback is now the reserve currency. From what I understand, gold will never replace the greenback unless another President say so? That is not to say gold doesn't have value, indeed, it has............but with no yield, will not corrode etc......so I see it's not as valuable as it once was....but good for trading if I can get it right.
> 
> Gold was down last night with our dollar taking a beating. Talks of more aggressive rate hikes...but let's not worry about that. Have a great weekend, ducati.




Gold as we speak, is replacing the UST system. Both Russia and China, followed by a host of other nations (OPEC as a block, India, South Africa, Africa widely, Brazil) are all de-dollarising. The dollar as the transactional reserve currency is now over. Today. Finished. Russia and China have played a masterful strategic game, helped by inept fools in the West.

Gold as the new reserve transactional currency, will, to allow trading in energy, have to revalue. As stated, the energy markets capitalisation is 15X that of gold. 

Gold will float against currencies. It will not be fixed. Some currencies, due to their levels of debt, may need to revalue their currencies as against gold if/when their currencies collapse. These valuations may well be higher than 15X.

For the US, in the short term, it will involve significant pain (UK included). Over time, it will drive the US to re-industrialise and become a manufacturing base once again. Probably a good thing.

The Fed, I think will pause with FFR hikes in November. Rather than a pivot (too embarrassing) we will see  a new 'Twist' programme, which is actually a quiet QE. Rather than the Fed expanding their Balance sheet, the big Commercial banks will expand theirs as SLE (supplementary leverage ratio) ratios are reset by the Fed for the Commercials. This is functionally exactly the same as QE, just with less fanfare.

jog on
duc


----------



## eskys

I don't know about that, ducati (first paragraph)

I hope they pause for a while (hiking rates) Makes it harder for businesses and home owners if rates keep going up. 

I can't think tonight, falling asleep at the keyboard.........goodnight, ducati, everyone


----------



## Knobby22

Gold Price vs Stock Market - 100 Year Chart
					

This chart compares the historical percentage return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average against the return for gold prices over the last 100 years.




					www.macrotrends.net
				




1979 was a big year for gold.


----------



## rcw1

Gold


----------



## rcw1

and more gold ... very interesting ha ha ha ha ha


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD is still in a downtrend;



The US Dollar is still in an uptrend but it has lost momentum as it hit the level of the recent high, the trend is extended at this point so there is a chance of a consolidation or reversal here;



The $AUD-USD also shows some loss of momentum in an extended trend;



If GLD does keep falling from here it could get down to the 147-143 area;


----------



## ducati916

The charts represent 'paper gold' and as such are worthless. Less than worthless because essentially they are propaganda.









The debt is eating the US alive. This does not even show the level of off-balance sheet Eurodollar loans made to systemically important European Banks. Credit Suisse this week was the recipient of a $10B swap arrangement (bailout) from the Fed. Why? CS has $8.8 Trillion in Swaps that as the UK implodes are slowly sinking underwater. The $10B represents payments that need to be made on those Swaps that CS does not have.

Will this be enough?



Not even close.

Soon there will be capital controls in the West.

The sad reality is that the West is being annihilated. 

You want bullion. With legal title.

The Miners are likely not going to participate, nor offer the value as they did in the 1970's. Lots of reasons why. Possibly Royalty stocks could be a better way to play the miners. MTA is one such (I hold MTA shares) that could be considered.

jog on
duc


----------



## rcw1

Gold could bottom here (double Daiky)


----------



## ducati916

So gold is now in backwardation:







So Switzerland is the hub of transferring (generally) gold from the West to the East.

The last time we had a backwardation was 2015, from where gold doubled in about 4yrs.

jog on
duc


----------



## Knobby22

Backwardation.
Good word for losing value.
Better hope China and India don't lose interest in it.

Silver is probably a better bet as we need it.








						SILVER IN INDUSTRY - The Silver Institute
					

Silver is one of the most important elements throughout a variety of productions from medical to conductors to automotive. Learn more about its place.




					www.silverinstitute.org


----------



## Knobby22




----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> Can't really believe we are in the 2615-2665 range so quickly...returning to the scenes of the crimes
> 
> View attachment 147654




Very fast move on the way up through the 2615-2665 region, price ran to 2677 to trigger stops and then retraced as supply quickly returned at those levels.




I was bleary eyed watching the hours before the NYSE open on Friday night to see a hefty rejection at the bottom of that range, 2614 or so.

Despite the rise in price, not too sure how bullish it is honestly. Seems to me more like we ran out of supply and floated up to where more could be found, and it was. Could easily tumble back down to 2560 the previous resistance now.


----------



## eskys

Our dollar is down at the moment, .6336 (-0.64%) Gold up .2.8%


----------



## rcw1

FOREX + BITCOIN Weekly Update! EURGBP - GBPJPY - EURAUD - GBPUSD - EURUSD - GOLD - BITCOIN!!

Kind regards
Rcw1


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It was the best of times and the worst of times. A fair bit of weather especially just north of the Sunshine Coast.

I have just returned from inspecting my buried gold, a journey that took me all the way down to Uki in the Northern Rivers of NSW ( that whole area should have a special addendum to the Constitution to state it is really in Queensland ) back up home again to a couple of dozen  ounces buried within 50 km of Charters Towers, appropriately.

Much rain but no hailstones to damage a fully refurbished Arnage, thanks Rick, in Tweed West.

Gold has made a good recovery since my sojourn in NSW and Southwest and Western Queensland in $USD, a simple chart should suffice.




More significantly in $AUD it is good as the Aussie meets some headwinds although there are signs of a recovery. At this moment Gold is $USD 1664.20 and $AUD 2566.95. 

It could go either way. 

gg


----------



## eskys

I've been wondering where you were, gg, and pondering on the direction of gold......still can't make up my mind. Little news from posters on the subject, and has me wondering if punters have given up.

Hope the Northern Rivers aren't too full....I last I heard from the manager was ok, so keeping my fingers crossed. Sounds like you had a good trip to the Tweeds.


----------



## bux2000

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Much rain but no hailstones to damage a fully refurbished Arnage, thanks Rick, in Tweed West.




So Pleased to read that bit of news.........I had a recent bad dream in which I saw you changing a tyre on a trailer behind a Prius ...........................knee deep in mud...........A charging station in clear view but no fuel or extention cord.......Oh  what a nightmare  .



While coming too ........my immediate thought was https://jackson.co.nz/jackson_electrical/lifeguard-7/

bux


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

eskys said:


> I've been wondering where you were, gg, and pondering on the direction of gold......still can't make up my mind. Little news from posters on the subject, and has me wondering if punters have given up.
> 
> Hope the Northern Rivers aren't too full....I last I heard from the manager was ok, so keeping my fingers crossed. Sounds like you had a good trip to the Tweeds.



Thanks @eskys 

War and a very cold winter in Europe unfortunately imo will propel Gold way, way above $USD 2000, and it will happen quickly imo. 

From what I can gather, and I am no expert, the paper gold players are heavily shorted on Gold because of a high USD and may get trapped when the USD retreats somewhat. 

My bet is that the rise in Gold will far outweigh any relative rise in our AUD to provide my Gold with a decent profit and then it may be time to shovel, retrieve and dispose of a percentage of my stores. 

Interesting times. 

gg


----------



## CityIndex

Garpal Gumnut said:


> gold players are heavily shorted on Gold because of a high USD and may get trapped when the USD retreats somewhat.



This retreat may have already begun with speculation on a possible Fed pivot in December causing DXY to break uptrend support, as well as the major psych level of 110 yesterday. 

Of course, any hint that the Fed will maintain their current aggressive rate hike path will likely fuel a new leg higher for USD. But technically speaking, there may now be scope for a deeper pullback. 

Gold also needs to first clear some resistance around 1680. All trading carries risk, but if it can do so, and the greenback continues to weaken, the precious metal could be in for a sharp rally.


----------



## bux2000

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My bet is that the rise in Gold will far outweigh any relative rise in our AUD to provide my Gold with a decent profit and then it may be time to shovel, retrieve and dispose of a percentage of my stores.





Hi Garpal it is nice to have you back and can I ask some serious questions about buying Gold?

There is so much to learn about so many things but I realise how complex this becomes when you take FX into account. When I look at a the charts with Gold in USD AUD and NZD for example they are all different. Buying Gold XAUAUD and XAUNZD there appears to be a similar problem. It is now obvious too that buying physical Gold in the past may have been an advantage by a gain in the XAUUSD Gold price and its and the USD's strength against with AUD and NZD .

I am probably making this sound more confusing than need be. 

In short there now no way to hedge so is it simply a matter of suck and see and just make a descision as to when to juggle an entry point.

Thanks for your time.

bux


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @eskys
> 
> War and a very cold winter in Europe unfortunately imo will propel Gold way, way above $USD 2000, and it will happen quickly imo.
> 
> From what I can gather, and I am no expert, the paper gold players are heavily shorted on Gold because of a high USD and may get trapped when the USD retreats somewhat.
> 
> My bet is that the rise in Gold will far outweigh any relative rise in our AUD to provide my Gold with a decent profit and then it may be time to shovel, retrieve and dispose of a percentage of my stores.
> 
> Interesting times.
> 
> gg



 i am surprised  you would convert your  gold  into ( any ) currency 

 i would have thought you would use it to acquire tangible goods  ( property , machinery, maybe collectibles )

interesting times , yes i agree there


----------



## eskys

Hmm, should I worry about bux? He'd been dreaming of gg getting bogged, but not of his buried gold? 

Gold is down presently almost $6, our dollar down a tad. Maybe next week will be clearer as to where gold will be heading. Pivoting to me is like a rumour, will it come true, I do wonder ...anyhow, all the best for gold holders


----------



## bux2000

divs4ever said:


> i am surprised you would convert your gold into ( any ) currency
> 
> i would have thought you would use it to acquire tangible goods ( property , machinery, maybe collectibles )
> 
> interesting times , yes i agree there




Sorry Divs
I did say that I appeared to overcomplicate

I do not own gold yet but trying work out when would be a good time to buy it only because the US dollar is so strong but IMO it appears to be showing signs of weakness unfortunately I can only buy in NZD

bux


----------



## bux2000

eskys said:


> Hmm, should I worry about bux? He'd been dreaming of gg getting bogged, but not of his buried gold?




Ahaa ...........but I know where he lives   .

bux


----------



## eskys

Better if you know where the gold is buried, bux.......I'll be your driver and you can be the digger.

I know I shouldn't be thinking so much about gold, but I'm a little obsessed and unable to get it off my brain


----------



## divs4ever

bux2000 said:


> Sorry Divs
> I did say that I appeared to overcomplicate
> 
> I do not own gold yet but trying work out when would be a good time to buy it only because the US dollar is so strong but IMO it appears to be showing signs of weakness unfortunately I can only buy in NZD
> 
> bux



 i would  suggest  ( almost ) any Central Bank  currency  is of notional  value , whereas precious ( and some base ) metals  can be swapped  directly for desired goods 

 the USD ( and many other currencies ) is the subject of a complex web of manipulations  ( and literally backed only by a government promise ) ( do YOU trust your government ?? )

 when things really go ugly  , you probably  want  a direct exchange of goods  ( because the currency is liable to inflate/devalue  by the day/hour )  

 read  stories  on previous  hyper-inflation events ( in history )


----------



## divs4ever

THE SHIFT FROM PAPER TO HARD ASSETS IS JUST BEGINNING.​


 if no access to physical  gold or silver  , what can you start accumulating  ( in Europe a couple of tonnes of firewood is suddenly something of value )


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> Very fast move on the way up through the 2615-2665 region, price ran to 2677 to trigger stops and then retraced as supply quickly returned at those levels.
> 
> Despite the rise in price, not too sure how bullish it is honestly. Seems to me more like we ran out of supply and floated up to where more could be found, and it was. *Could easily tumble back down to 2560 the previous resistance now.*




I take little pleasure in this view having being shown as correct




Supply above 2560 just continues to be ridiculously strong.

Nothing between 2560 - 2510 would really surprise me at all.

2680 would surprise me.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

bux2000 said:


> Sorry Divs
> I did say that I appeared to overcomplicate
> 
> I do not own gold yet but trying work out when would be a good time to buy it only because the US dollar is so strong but IMO it appears to be showing signs of weakness unfortunately I can only buy in NZD
> 
> bux



My attitude towards buying Gold is not when to buy but to imagine 6mo hence and ask myself should I have bought 6 mo ago, ie now. 

It’s a matter of figuring what it’s going to be in $AUD in your forward time scale and to forget the weight of balls of steel one needs to negotiate all the variables. 

gg


----------



## DannyB0000

I’ve held Northern Star shares for the last two years through Commsec and have recently bought Newcrest Mining shares through Aus super.  I’d be buying the gold miners now while their under valued, could be a different story in 6 months if we get a global recession Or even Stagflation.


----------



## ducati916

DannyB0000 said:


> I’ve held Northern Star shares for the last two years through Commsec and have recently bought Newcrest Mining shares through Aus super.  I’d be buying the gold miners now while their under valued, could be a different story in 6 months if we get a global recession Or even Stagflation.




There are a number of issues with owning shares in miners:

(a) what if they are nationalised; and
(b) they are energy dependent, higher energy costs decreases their margins;
(c) shares into a hyper-inflation rise in nominal terms but crash in real terms;
(d) you do not have any control (unless you hold a controlling number of shares) in the company or the product.

If you are looking at gold/silver as risk management for your wealth, you need to own the physical. If you are speculating, fine.

In the 1970's inflation, physical gold increased x2 over the miners.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

DannyB0000 said:


> I’ve held Northern Star shares for the last two years through Commsec and have recently bought Newcrest Mining shares through Aus super.  I’d be buying the gold miners now while their under valued, could be a different story in 6 months if we get a global recession Or even Stagflation.



Gold shares are a good investment, although as with everything timing is essential. 

As @ducati916 pointed out there are even more variables with gold stocks, especially the price at which they are contracted to deliver Gold which can be at variance to the POG and depends as you would be aware @DannyB0000 on the intelligence of the outfit. The latter unfortunately follows the bell curve. I've a few kopeks on GOR for what it's worth.  

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

I tend to trade them.
Because there can be such extreme volatility,  good profits and some big losses can be made.
the secret is to not attempt to time the top or the bottom of the market.
I tend to limit myself to a 10, maybe15% profit before getting out.
means I have missed out on some big jumps, buts fine.
if I cam get three or four of the smaller jumps in a year, thats fine by me.
Mick


----------



## DannyB0000

Granted my buy timing with NST was wrong in 2020.  Commentators at the time were saying Gold was going to take off, ANZ had Gold at $2100 USD towards the end of 2020 and they were all wrong.  Have been using averaging down to buy more parcels of shares on the way down.  Northern Star has been profitable and the stock pays dividends.  I’m an investor now not a trader.

Newcrest is undervalued at the moment.  There was insider buying around $17.30 mark.


----------



## ducati916

Gold may well be reaching the point where the paper manipulation reaches the failure point. With the US looking increasingly like resuming QE on the quiet, those that recognise this will start to build gold positions more overtly.

The full details in this post: https://mrromulus789137764.wordpress.com/2022/10/29/a-sub-rosa-pivot/

But in short, Treasury Secretary Yellen is signalling that the Treasury, or the Banks, or both, will be filling the stop-gap until the Fed can return to full bore QE again. This will be done via Treasury swaps and amended Bank SLRs.

jog on
duc


----------



## DannyB0000

ducati916 said:


> Gold may well be reaching the point where the paper manipulation reaches the failure point. With the US looking increasingly like resuming QE on the quiet, those that recognise this will start to build gold positions more overtly.
> 
> The full details in this post: https://mrromulus789137764.wordpress.com/2022/10/29/a-sub-rosa-pivot/
> 
> But in short, Treasury Secretary Yellen is signalling that the Treasury, or the Banks, or both, will be filling the stop-gap until the Fed can return to full bore QE again. This will be done via Treasury swaps and amended Bank SLRs.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Can’t see the FED and other central banks cutting interest rates intil the inflation story has been resolved, it’s still unacceptably high.  I think market players are being to optimistic about the Fed pivoting.


----------



## ducati916

DannyB0000 said:


> Can’t see the FED and other central banks cutting interest rates intil the inflation story has been resolved, it’s still unacceptably high.  I think market players are being to optimistic about the Fed pivoting.




The Fed will have to pivot or possibly what Yellen is proposing, a change in Bank SLRs and/or Treasury swapping duration.

Because the US is heading into or already in a recession, this puts the requirement to pivot as a purely arithmetic calculation.

A recession creates  +/- 20% decline in tax revenues from a mild garden variety recession. Then add in a 9% increase in COLA benefits. That = 85% – 90% of tax revenue gone before you even spend on anything else.

Add in another 40% from a 5% rate on $31T debt (now actually sitting in excess of $32T and you have a grand total of 125% – 140% of your tax revenue gone before you even address anything else (every 100bps = $300B in increased interest costs).

Already the Fed is sitting on massive losses:





Which means the Treasury does not get those remittances.

If that were not enough, the rate of inflation by the Fed's own calculation is 8%. In truth it is probably closer to 16%. Anyway, with a FFR nominal rate of 5%, that is still a real (-3%) rate. That won't stop the inflation. The FFR needs to be about a nominal 10% to 11%. That kills the US economy.

Final point: the Fed isn't even fighting inflation. It is fighting a currency war with Russia & China to (try) and retain USD hegemony. The idea being that both Russia and China are 'emerging' economies and rely on sufficient (supply) liquidity of UST/USD.

Clearly Russia does not. Russia produces real commodities, energy being the critical commodity currently. Real assets trump paper. Russia and China are absolutely demolishing the US and the West.

With the US mid-terms in 10 days, there may be significant political pressure to pivot. We have already seen Democrat politicians seeking a pivot, which is why Yellen has got involved: she knows that the Fed is weaponised now against Russia and is already losing, hence resetting the SLR for banks which is QE, just a little more hidden from the general public's eye.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

One of the many questions friends ask me " Is Gold Convenient? ". I was reminded of this in an article by the well tuned Anna Golubova at Kitco this morning. 

She was interviewing Vitalik Buterin a co-founder of Ethereum a crypto about which I have an open mind. He was quite negative about Gold despite the precious metal having way outperformed ETH over the last 2 years. 

I always listen to others' opinions unless I have a division or five behind me to be dictatorial. In young Buterin's case, he is simply wrong. 









						These are 3 reasons why crypto beats gold: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin
					





					www.kitco.com
				




gg


----------



## CityIndex

Gold has now seen 7 straight months of losses for the first time on record, with most of the bearish pressure coming from a surging US Dollar.

It will be interesting to see how this week’s FOMC Meeting impacts XAU/USD. If the Fed does in fact signal a chance of slowing their rate hikes come December, the Dollar may finally see more sustained pullback, and given the global recession concerns that will likely continue weighing on sentiment, gold may be better positioned than other major currencies to rally against the greenback.

Of course, all trading carries risk, and another round of hawkish rhetoric from the Fed may spark a retest of the support around 1615.


----------



## KevinBB

Gold Price - Where is it heading?​I don't know where it is heading, but apparently it is going on a trip somewhere.

KH


----------



## eskys

Consolidating trip? Looks like it wants to turn the corner........hope it does a Gold Trip which won the Cup today


----------



## rcw1

eskys said:


> Consolidating trip? Looks like it wants to turn the corner........hope it does a Gold Trip which won the Cup today



Hello eskys @ Keyes
Hoping find you well.   Gold could have been on holiday....   It just needs to find itself again in such a complex world.  This will happen.

Have a good day tomorrow.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Telamelo

It was terrific to see 'Gold' finally do something thanks to 'Gold Trip' winning the Melb. Cup this afternoon lol


----------



## eskys

Good morning rcw1, everyone,

Sorry for the late reply. I passed out early last evening....not from drinking just in case you think that. Hope you are well.

Gold up $9, hope it gets a good run today, good luck.


rcw1 said:


> Hello eskys @ Keyes
> Hoping find you well.   Gold could have been on holiday....   It just needs to find itself again in such a complex world.  This will happen.
> 
> Have a good day tomorrow.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Some 400tonnes bought by central banks last Q.


----------



## eskys

Looking at gold again, it's back to base, static. Our dollar down a tad.............ahh, hopes and dreams, and reality.

Stronger than expected economic data last night........waiting for Fed tonight


----------



## rcw1

eskys said:


> Looking at gold again, it's back to base, static. Our dollar down a tad.............ahh, hopes and dreams, and reality
> 
> Stronger than expected economic data last night........waiting for Fed tonight



Good morning eskys @ keys
Been reported News Corp media today (02/11/22) words to the effect:

A lift in growing financial market volatility is likely to push the Aussie dollar lower towards US59c by the end of March next year, CBA analysts expect.

The Aussie dollar was near US63.95c at the US close.

Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## eskys

Thank you, rcw1. That's my thoughts too. Stronger than expected economic data last night had me thinking about interest rates by Fed this tonight....Can't see them going gentle, gentle...

Anyway, I'm done, got two out of three........one gone red......


----------



## divs4ever

remember there is a political event next week ,

 be ready for extraordinary twists and turns ( which may or may not happen )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It will be very interesting to see how the cousins in Hong Kong price Gold today. 

It may indicate a re-opening of Comrade Xi's circus which will not just be good for Gold but for all commodities. 




gg


----------



## eskys

divs4ever said:


> remember there is a political event next week ,
> 
> be ready for extraordinary twists and turns ( which may or may not happen )



What event were you referring to, divs?

This market is so volatile, it'll put hair on our chests.


----------



## divs4ever

eskys said:


> What event were you referring to, divs?
> 
> This market is so volatile, it'll put hair on our chests.



 US .. and  in an even-numbered year    ( hint it may or may not  raise months of allegations of Russian interference  and/or vote-rigging ) along with months of social media bans


----------



## eskys

I'm guessing it has something to do with the colour orange. If it's that, don't know how it will affect the market, could be insignificant as far as the market is concerned.

Gold is up $8 at the moment and our dollar slightly green. Good luck with your investing/investments, divs


----------



## Telamelo

Nice to see the AUD Gold price relatively stable overnight @ $2,575 






						Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com
					

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.




					goldbroker.com


----------



## DaveTrade

GLD has been moving sideways for a couple of weeks now, so for me it's a wait and see game for gold to pick a direction from here.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gold has fallen towards $USD 1625 but in the Aussie it is ...




gg


----------



## ducati916

It's coming:




So in a week where CBs buy 400 tonnes of gold, a CB stating that it is the backstop (revaluation) to a default, rather lets you know where you should be placing some of your hard earned.

If, and probably when, debt has to be backstopped by gold reserves, on a global basis, you are looking at $50K/oz. Outrageous? You may think so, but this is just how much piss taking western governments have engaged in for the last 40yrs.

jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

Momentum is turning up for GLD so now would a good entry long for an aggressive trader, but in view of overhead resistance zones nearby and volatility in the markets at the moment, a more conservative trader may choose to wait for confirmation before going long. The first retrace after confirming strength to the upside would be a safer bet.


----------



## Sean K

I’m in two minds, especially because a lot of other metals spiked. Could be just a commodity bear rally, or something fundamental is about to change. Perhaps a swing to risk is on. China needs to reopen for general metals to restart. Not sure if gold is trading independently to that narrative after one good day.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I’m in two minds, especially because a lot of other metals spiked. Could be just a commodity bear rally, or something fundamental is about to change. Perhaps a swing to risk is on. China needs to reopen for general metals to restart. Not sure if gold is trading independently to that narrative after one good day.



We will need to wait and see. Everything points to a proper rally, CB's buying, short covering of paper gold, etc. 

The "experts" say that $USD 1735 will be resistance and this is borne out by @DaveTrade 's chart. 



DaveTrade said:


> Momentum is turning up for GLD so now would a good entry long for an aggressive trader, but in view of overhead resistance zones nearby and volatility in the markets at the moment, a more conservative trader may choose to wait for confirmation before going long. The first retrace after confirming strength to the upside would be a safer bet.
> 
> View attachment 148871




I'm comfortable atm. I took out a 10% holding as an insurance policy in Gold on the total value of my SMSF earlier this year and it's just about even steven in $AUD atm. This is apart from my private bar holdings. 

( taps head to touch wood ).

Yeh, so, no worries atm.

However crazy times. 

gg


----------



## Telamelo

Gold currently trading at US $1,713 +$32  which equates to AUD Gold price $2,617


----------



## rcw1

+ $35.60


----------



## mullokintyre

Gold surges 50 bucks.
the question is why?
Is it the capitulation by the paper scammers?
Is it a precaution ahead of US midterm? (thats Kitcos idea not mine).
Is it a FOMO response to some fat finger trade?
Is it because bigger traders see retail buyers and CB's hoovering up gold like there is no Tomorrow?
Is it because the non western countries and their CB are going to release a digital international reserve currency backed by gold?
Is it a right wing terror plot to destroy the US government?
Is it a left wing plot to destroy the US government?
Is it all of the above.
I am open to further suggestions.
Mick


----------



## eskys

My answer is on the first line. Not sure of the rest, but looks like we're going somewhere for now


----------



## DaveTrade

mullokintyre said:


> Gold surges 50 bucks.
> the question is why?
> Is it the capitulation by the paper scammers?
> Is it a precaution ahead of US midterm? (thats Kitcos idea not mine).
> Is it a FOMO response to some fat finger trade?
> Is it because bigger traders see retail buyers and CB's hoovering up gold like there is no Tomorrow?
> Is it because the non western countries and their CB are going to release a digital international reserve currency backed by gold?
> Is it a right wing terror plot to destroy the US government?
> Is it a left wing plot to destroy the US government?
> Is it all of the above.
> I am open to further suggestions.
> Mick



@mullokintyre sometimes it's easy to see why the market moves sometimes no so easy, The backbone of my trading philosophy is focusing on reading what the market is doing within the environment that it's currently in. There usually are numerous opinions as to why it moved or will move so I try to just focus on the facts that I can see in front of me.


----------



## rcw1

mullokintyre said:


> Gold surges 50 bucks.
> the question is why?
> Is it the capitulation by the paper scammers?
> Is it a precaution ahead of US midterm? (thats Kitcos idea not mine).
> Is it a FOMO response to some fat finger trade?
> Is it because bigger traders see retail buyers and CB's hoovering up gold like there is no Tomorrow?
> Is it because the non western countries and their CB are going to release a digital international reserve currency backed by gold?
> Is it a right wing terror plot to destroy the US government?
> Is it a left wing plot to destroy the US government?
> Is it all of the above.
> I am open to further suggestions.
> Mick



Good morning
For mine, demand in light of the US political landscape.  The question is where did the demand originate from?? 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> Gold surges 50 bucks.
> the question is why?
> Is it the capitulation by the paper scammers?
> Is it a precaution ahead of US midterm? (thats Kitcos idea not mine).
> Is it a FOMO response to some fat finger trade?
> Is it because bigger traders see retail buyers and CB's hoovering up gold like there is no Tomorrow?
> Is it because the non western countries and their CB are going to release a digital international reserve currency backed by gold?
> Is it a right wing terror plot to destroy the US government?
> Is it a left wing plot to destroy the US government?
> Is it all of the above.
> I am open to further suggestions.
> Mick




Switch from crypto.


----------



## rcw1

might see another driver towards resistance maybe ...


----------



## rcw1

I guess it could also just oscillate between the top and bottom line for a few more months


----------



## DannyB0000

If Cpi comes in hot again on Thursday night Gold could drop again.  Don’t think Central Banks are done raising interest rate just yet.

Don’t get me wrong I like the current trajectory of gold prices, but it could be temporary move higher.


----------



## Telamelo

H


rcw1 said:


> I guess it could also just oscillate between the top and bottom line for a few more months
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 148979



Hope not as been patiently waiting for "Gold price to rocket to the moon" so to speak... would love to wake up one morning & see that Gold shot up $1K  lol


----------



## mullokintyre

DannyB0000 said:


> If Cpi comes in hot again on Thursday night Gold could drop again.  Don’t think Central Banks are done raising interest rate just yet.
> 
> Don’t get me wrong I like the current trajectory of gold prices, but it could be temporary move higher.



I still think we have more down side yet.
No where near enough blood has been spilt to convince me to put a lot off money back on the table.
As the man at live traders said, when BTC hits 13,00 and tesla sits at 150 bucks, then we may have exhausted the markets.
Mick


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Where is Gold going to next?. A refrain from all posters. 

I have absolutely no idea to be honest what with the $USD, Ukraine, Fed, Russian Oil, China, Taiwan, US House and Senate elections, MAGA, The Democrats, De Santis, Old Boy Biden ( the Democrats really don't deserve to win a toad race at the old Airlie Beach hotel for picking him), Trump, Putin and all the other F-wits leading major nations in very troubled times.

The 3 month chart looks hopeful for a breakthrough $USD1735 which will put $USD1800 within reach and then all the experts will be looking for $USD100 jumps through $USD2000.  

I doubt if it will collapse down to or below $USD1600. 

So, my guess is UP or RANGE. 





gg


----------



## eskys

No one knows where gold is heading but looking good for now is good enough for me. I'm not brave enough to make a call........the world looks like a scary place to me........I'm holding tightly to my retarded money.....

Have a kind of a wind fall today. Was back at our stone cottage and saw a patch of unmowed grass. Thought it very odd of the gardener to miss a patch under the apricot tree, I went to investigate....lo and behold, a swarm of bees.......heading back tonight with my brother and his gear to scoop our honey bees (hope they haven't flown since I left them)...........have a great evening, everyone. May gold shine again tonight.........please.


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price @ $2,659 +1.01% higher as we speak..

https://goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/aud


----------



## qldfrog

Telamelo said:


> AUD Gold price @ $2,659 +1.01% higher as we speak..
> 
> https://goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/aud



Mostly due to /compounded by a huge fall of AUD vs USD


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Where is Gold going to next?. A refrain from all posters.
> 
> I have absolutely no idea to be honest what with the $USD, Ukraine, Fed, Russian Oil, China, Taiwan, US House and Senate elections, MAGA, The Democrats, De Santis, Old Boy Biden ( the Democrats really don't deserve to win a toad race at the old Airlie Beach hotel for picking him), Trump, Putin and all the other F-wits leading major nations in very troubled times.
> 
> The 3 month chart looks hopeful for a breakthrough $USD1735 which will put $USD1800 within reach and then all the experts will be looking for $USD100 jumps through $USD2000.
> 
> I doubt if it will collapse down to or below $USD1600.
> 
> So, my guess is UP or RANGE.
> 
> View attachment 148983
> 
> 
> 
> gg



I'll change my mind on "Where Gold is Heading" in light of the destruction of value in Crypto. 

$USD1735 is easily obtainable and once through that over $USD1800 is not out of the question. 

As to $USD2000+ , I would not bet against it. 

gg


----------



## peter2

Agreed, money should flow from crypto back to gold. That is, if they can get their money out of the "exchanges".


----------



## divs4ever

peter2 said:


> Agreed, money should flow from crypto back to gold. That is, if they can get their money out of the "exchanges".



 yes that will be interesting to watch  ( and learn from )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

peter2 said:


> Agreed, money should flow from crypto back to gold. That is, if they can get their money out of the "exchanges".



Then there is so much "money" out there after the easing outside of markets, bonds, crypto, RE and Gold that Gold may be the only "safe" haven after interest rates peak early next year. 

And it is a may. 

I'm unsure how big the BTC market is now valued in comparison to other assets. 

gg


----------



## rcw1

hmmmmmmmmmm  




Interesting guess anyways...


----------



## rcw1

There are those who will say its an obvious  "W" reversal pattern on daily chart ..







Will it follow the US30 ? which is at 50% of its range atm
Just bored that all


----------



## DannyB0000

Looks like the current trend for Gold is the real deal, up 2.5% in overnight trade.  USD starting to fall, Bonds falling as well.  Gold miners should rocket higher today 🚀


----------



## OBull7

DannyB0000 said:


> Looks like the current trend for Gold is the real deal, up 2.5% in overnight trade.  USD starting to fall, Bonds falling as well.  Gold miners should rocket higher today 🚀



I hope this is the case though who knows with my interests (NVA). The current board's strategic priorities having me lacking confidence they can capitalise on this movement.


----------



## DaveTrade

To follow up on my previous post on GLD, at this point I'm still bullish. As shown on the chart below I indicated that an aggressive trader could enter on Monday Nov 7th. I think that this move will probably go on to the resistance zone overhead between the 165-168 levels.

A new uptrend has not formed yet so it makes sense to continue to trade this in a tactical manner, so I'll be looking for a place to exit and then wait for a pullback to re-enter long if the market holds true to a long bias.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> To follow up on my previous post on GLD, at this point I'm still bullish. As shown on the chart below I indicated that an aggressive trader could enter on Monday Nov 7th. I think that this move will probably go on to the resistance zone overhead between the 165-168 levels.
> 
> A new uptrend has not formed yet so it makes sense to continue to trade this in a tactical manner, so I'll be looking for a place to exit and then wait for a pullback to re-enter long if the market holds true to a long bias.
> 
> View attachment 149069




That chart looks pretty good to me for a bottom at 151. The resistance at 167 ish Aug high and May/June lows and 200dma might be trouble.


----------



## rcw1

rcw1 said:


> There are those who will say its an obvious  "W" reversal pattern on daily chart ..
> 
> View attachment 149039
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Will it follow the US30 ? which is at 50% of its range atm
> Just bored that all






rcw1 said:


> View attachment 149038





Well then that's doing okay 





Not a bad earn if you were on it ...

Have a very nice weekend.

kind regards
rcw1


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> I take little pleasure in this view having being shown as correct
> 
> View attachment 148572
> 
> 
> Supply above 2560 just continues to be ridiculously strong.
> 
> Nothing between 2560 - 2510 would really surprise me at all.
> 
> 2680 would surprise me.




Well, colour me surprised, but the reaction to 2680 was not a nice one, so maybe a bit less surprised.




We spent less than one minute above 2680, in the very illiquid moments of the CPI print and supplied non-stop since then.





I am still skeptical.


----------



## DannyB0000

InsvestoBoy said:


> Well, colour me surprised, but the reaction to 2680 was not a nice one, so maybe a bit less surprised.
> 
> View attachment 149130
> 
> 
> We spent less than one minute above 2680, in the very illiquid moments of the CPI print and supplied non-stop since then.
> 
> View attachment 149131
> 
> 
> 
> I am still skeptical.



I think if you wait until you get ultimate proof that Gold prices are heading north that it slaps you in the face, you will miss out on profits.

In the end it’s your money.


----------



## DaveTrade

Currently GLD is moving up, priced in $US, but the $US is moving down in value thus helping GLD move up. The $AUS-$US pair is moving up so this will work against your long position in a GLD trade. Does anyone have a chart of Gold in Australian dollars to show us.


----------



## DaveTrade

Here's one from the internet, still looks OK.


----------



## finicky

*20 year* gold chart - the reason I've lost interest day to day or month to month. Drives you mad. Conviction and mind numbing patience required. Different for traders. Chart is very bullish but break through does not look imminent to me.

Held


----------



## InsvestoBoy

DannyB0000 said:


> I think if you wait until you get ultimate proof that Gold prices are heading north that it slaps you in the face, you will miss out on profits.
> 
> In the end it’s your money.




Wow, thanks for the advice, I have been long gold since 2007 and never sold a single ounce. My allocation is 25% of my total net worth.

It also just so happens that after watching the price of something for 15 years, you tend to form opinions.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

DaveTrade said:


> Currently GLD is moving up, priced in $US, but the $US is moving down in value thus helping GLD move up. The $AUS-$US pair is moving up so this will work against your long position in a GLD trade. Does anyone have a chart of Gold in Australian dollars to show us.





finicky said:


> *20 year* gold chart - the reason I've lost interest day to day or month to month. Drives you mad. Conviction and mind numbing patience required. Different for traders. Chart is very bullish but break through does not look imminent to me.
> 
> Held
> 
> View attachment 149149



I'd agree @DaveTrade 

One's Gold horizon is best seen on a 6mo. to 3 yr. basis, at least mine is. 

This equilibrates for the move in Gold and the move in the Aussie $AUD. 

Any smaller horizon can cause indigestion as Gold moves up with a lower $USD and conversely moves down with a stronger $AUD for Australian holders in $AUD. 

I like to keep Gold simple. 

Will it be under $USD 1600 in 6mo. to 3 yrs ... Unlikely 

Will it be more than $AUD 3500 in 6mo. to 3 yrs ... Likely

gg


----------



## ducati916

R* is the Fed’s ‘neutral rate’.

There has been much discussion as to where exactly that R* rate is. The following chart suggests that in reality it is a negative real rate…not a positive one.





The higher the debt, the lower R* must be.

With Treasury signalling a further $3T deficit, the Fed. is already at or past R* and the pivot becomes a necessity or outright default ensues.




Gold (much) higher.

The Fed. either pivots and inflates or the US defaults on debt. Either outcome sees gold significantly higher.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Spot Gold market opens in 5 minutes. 

gg


----------



## rcw1

Gold is good
Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## DaveTrade




----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The Pommies who have not fled to Singapore and the Chinese Gold traders in Hong Kong seem a bit agitated and bullish on Gold this afternoon. 

I wonder if Little Trudeau was told something by Ole Xi in relation to opening up The Chinese Circus for business again. 

New Year approaches and once the masses get out of their high rises it will be down to the jewellers and gold shops for pressies for the rellies, and there are a lotta rellies. 




gg


----------



## eskys

I think Dave made a good move this morning. Our dollar is softening, gold down $10 at the moment, but maybe it will reverse in the morning?


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price doing nicely


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> I am still skeptical.




Hard to not be skeptical after a rejection like last nights.




Price was happily offered into the previous closing swing high at ~2655.

Someone convince me I'm wrong.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold price analysis/outlook etc. discussed from 9:00 onwards


----------



## DaveTrade

Telamelo said:


> Gold price analysis/outlook etc. discussed from 9:00 onwards




Hi @Telamelo , thanks for putting these up on the site, I like this guy, he has an understanding of how the markets move. GLD is moving down at the moment and I'm thinking this will continue for at least another two trading days. I'll be looking to see how it reacts to the support zone just below, if this zone holds the market then this may give me a place to re-enter the market for another leg up.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

If Gold holds above $USD1735 in Sydney and Hong Kong today with all the kerfuffle over BTC my expectation is that it will test $USD1780 in London and New York this evening and overnight. 

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If Gold holds above $USD1735 in Sydney and Hong Kong today with all the kerfuffle over BTC my expectation is that it will test $USD1780 in London and New York this evening and overnight.
> 
> gg




Interesting  take GG, I'm pretty much the opposite (in general). I often dread the Asian buying because it nearly always gets faded by the other sessions.

At least as far as I can tell, despite all the conspiracy theories and LBMA OTC still being the most liquid market, NY session and therefore COMEX futures still sets the marginal daily price.

Usually you can see price increases that tend to stick are when, for whatever reason, Asia sells and offers some marginal cheapness to London/NY to bid.

Fading the Asian session is common across all futures markets, not just gold.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

It's not the end of the month yet, but we're close and that means it's a good time to look at the monthly chart to see where we might end up.





I don't think it's looking very good, but there's still about a week worth of time for price action to try and repair the monthly bar.

The previous monthly close is at 2553...if you had looked at this chart earlier in the month you would've thought no problems closing above it.

Now it's starting to look a bit more concerning that we could actually have a down month or (IMHO) just as bad, a complete rejection of the entire months price action if we close at 2553.

Even closes below 2593 would still be a rejection of every single test of monthly closing swing highs and the previous monthly high.

Looking back as far as 2020, you can see that price has been extremely well supplied anywhere north of exactly where we are now.


----------



## Sean K

I think this switch started a couple of weeks ago.


----------



## DaveTrade

I agree with @InsvestoBoy that it's not showing strength on the monthly time frame, in fact I'm not seeing strength on the weekly or daily at the moment, I'm hoping that things may change by the weekend, we will see. @Sean K , the crypto people may be a bit gun shy and come into gold after it starts to move, just a thought. I just read what the market is doing in the hear and now but I think it's important to be aware of what factors are behind a potential move in the market.


----------



## Telamelo

Gold stocks have started to rally (look bullish) so that's my pre-emptive signal to increase my exposure to Gold stocks such as the likes of RMS, EVN, BC8 etc. 

P.S. NST share price already gained $4 off it's low's - so suggests to me that the tide has certainly turned with Gold back in favour/back in the limelight imo as expecting Gold to do very well in 2023 (on lower inflationary fears/weaker USD etc.).


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Telamelo said:


> Gold stocks have started to rally (look bullish) so that's my pre-emptive signal to increase my exposure to Gold stocks such as the likes of RMS, EVN, BC8 etc.
> 
> P.S. NST share price already gained $4 off it's low's - so suggests to me that the tide has certainly turned with Gold back in favour/back in the limelight imo as expecting Gold to do very well in 2023 (on lower inflationary fears/weaker USD etc.).




To me the move in gold miners is just a bounce from quite oversold conditions, no signs of strength yet.

I only own one, about 1-2% of my total net worth, AEM on the NYSE.

I drew some hypothetical sketches of return paths that would make me feel like there was some bullishness in the price...you can see all of them involve *not going back down from where we are right now.*




My entry top ticked one of the previous highs at 46 in August or so, preceding a nice -18% drawdown, so don't get me wrong I am happy to see the current rally, but any retracement from current levels would suggest a return to weakness.

Just my 2c but not out of the woods yet.


----------



## Sean K

DaveTrade said:


> I agree with @InsvestoBoy that it's not showing strength on the monthly time frame, in fact I'm not seeing strength on the weekly or daily at the moment, I'm hoping that things may change by the weekend, we will see. @Sean K , the crypto people may be a bit gun shy and come into gold after it starts to move, just a thought. I just read what the market is doing in the hear and now but I think it's important to be aware of what factors are behind a potential move in the market.




Yes, plus USD has been coming off the past couple of weeks against just about all currencies.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Yes, plus USD has been coming off the past couple of weeks against just about all currencies.



Trouble is if USD goes down vs AUD, the usd gold has to increase just as much just to remain stable in aud..
Unless you just look at your usd portfolio value.
My usd portfolio increased this week but in aud .i lose...


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> Trouble is if USD goes down vs AUD, the usd gold has to increase just as much just to remain stable in aud..
> Unless you just look at your usd portfolio value.
> My usd portfolio increased this week but in aud .i lose...




Yeah, a trade off. I wonder if ASX gold equities respond to movement in the USD price or AUD price? I'm sure some sort of data run study has looked at it, but my perception is that gold stocks move on USD price for some reason. Might not have been watching the AUD price enough to get a proper feel for it.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
The Dow nexus...

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Telamelo

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> The Dow nexus...
> 
> Have a very nice day, today.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Happy Friday!

RMS now @ 0.895c +3.47%

BC8 now @ 0.335c +3.08%

Cheers tela


----------



## rcw1

Telamelo said:


> Happy Friday!
> 
> RMS now @ 0.895c +3.47%
> 
> BC8 now @ 0.335c +3.08%
> 
> Cheers tela



Good afternoon Telamelo,
Nice work... Can smell the profit oozing out of your post ...   
Hope you don't mind asking, you thinking of letting it run or cash in M8?

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Telamelo

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon Telamelo,
> Nice work... Can smell the profit oozing out of your post ...
> Hope you don't mind asking, you thinking of letting it run or cash in M8?
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Good afternoon rcw1 
Thanks for that lol Yeah trading/investing is enjoyable when it plays out exactly the way you want it too (if only it was this easy all the time hey !? lol haha)

I'll let it run using a very wide tailing stop loss (as nothing worse having a decent size position/being set & cashing in too soon - only to see share price sometimes continue on much much higher). 

Good Luck with your trading! 

Cheers tela


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I was quite surprised to see Gold at $AUD2612 this morning, I was expecting a firmer $AUD to decrease the range bound Gold in $USD.

It would appear the Chinese cousins minor disagreement with the Chinese Emperor, over whether they have the right or not to flee a burning building, may be the cause of the fall in the $AUD.

Let us hope either the cousins or the Emperor can come to an agreement on what is the best action. The I-Back-Dan Pty Ltd. working out of the Caravan Committee at the hotel is willing to assist punters ( for a fee ) on the future direction of lockdowns in China. 

gg


----------



## eskys

Gold was down last night, now up $4.20......look at EVN, in the green


----------



## CityIndex

Seems like commodities are being buoyed by the rebound in sentiment in China. Health officials in the country are due to give a briefing soon, and markets appear to be expecting a potential shift away from their current COVID-zero stance. Although that also opens the door to the possibility of the statement disappointing. 

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to watch as it looks likely to spark further volatility despite outcome.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> Interesting  take GG, I'm pretty much the opposite (in general). I often dread the Asian buying because it nearly always gets faded by the other sessions.
> 
> At least as far as I can tell, despite all the conspiracy theories and LBMA OTC still being the most liquid market, NY session and therefore COMEX futures still sets the marginal daily price.




Thought I'd post last nights 3 min chart as it highlights this phenomenon quite well.

The vertical shaded areas are the starting hour of Tokyo, London and New York FX sessions respectively.




As you can see, despite the allegedly "paper gold busting pure physical Shanghai gold exchange" in Asian hours and now the allegedly "paper gold busting pure physical Russian gold exchange" in European hours, not to mention the insanely huge paper LBMA OTC in European hours...it's COMEX that set the closing price for yesterday, nearly all offers were bid back to 2620.

Hopefully we get a bit of this now:


> Usually you can see price increases that tend to stick are when, for whatever reason, Asia sells and offers some marginal cheapness to London/NY to bid.


----------



## eskys

Our dollar is over 68 cents, gold $1791


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

We just need the POG in $USD to continue higher past $USD 2000 and the AUD/USD to fall down around the 60c. mark. 

Then it will be Christmas on a stick for all POG followers. 

gg


----------



## eskys

Our dollar 68.23 now, gold 1795........I better knock it off, my eyes are going crooked!

Have a great evening, everyone...hope gold holds overnight, good luck for tomorrow


----------



## aus_trader

eskys said:


> Our dollar 68.23 now, gold 1795........I better knock it off, my eyes are going crooked!
> 
> Have a great evening, everyone...hope gold holds overnight, good luck for tomorrow



whoa !


----------



## Sean K

Houston....let's hope it's not all a big bear trap and China, interest rates and USD play the game.

$1800 psychological and horizontal resistance on my chart. $1836 on Wyckoff's Feb gold chart.


----------



## Telamelo

Sean K said:


> Houston....let's hope it's not all a big bear trap and China, interest rates and USD play the game.
> 
> $1800 psychological and horizontal resistance on my chart. $1836 on Wyckoff's Feb gold chart.
> 
> View attachment 149969
> 
> View attachment 149974
> 
> View attachment 149972



Gold price rocketed up +$57 overnight to US$1,817 equates to AUD $2,646


----------



## ducati916

Gold & Silver are up because the markets believe that the Fed must pivot.





The yield curve indicates a 500bps cut due to the severity of:

(i) US deficits;
(ii) contracting GDP;
(iii) de-globalisation;
(iv) Russian/Chinese block de-dollarising;
(v) Energy shortages;
(vi) Rising unemployment;
(vii) Falling tax revenues

All requiring the Fed to increasingly monetise Treasury issued debt, or accelerating inflation which will reach double digits pretty fast in the US and potentially threaten the viability of USD.

jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

I got back into Gold last night at the open, above the price where I previously got out, I made the decision to trade each leg up. The gap was unfortunate for my entry point but it didn't surprise me, there are gaps all through this chart. Gaping into resistance can be a reversal point but obviously I think this is the beginning of the next leg up. We shall all see what unfolds, if I keep my risk down in the trade then I'll still be ok if it doesn't work out.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I must admit to being more patient about Gold than the average punter. 

The 5 yr chart would indicate that gold needs to hold a base at $USD 1800 and perhaps oscillate between that and $USD 1900 for a while to have any chance of decisively cracking $USD 2000 and forming a new base there. 

Interesting times. 












gg


----------



## DaveTrade

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit to being more patient about Gold than the average punter.
> 
> The 5 yr chart would indicate that gold needs to hold a base at $USD 1800 and perhaps oscillate between that and $USD 1900 for a while to have any chance of decisively cracking $USD 2000 and forming a new base there.
> 
> Interesting times.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 150027
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg



@Garpal Gumnut I think that the next couple of week's price action will show how strong or weak the Gold market is at the moment. The weekly chart is still looking good to me, it's possible that we are just starting a new uptrend.


----------



## Sean K




----------



## ducati916

The BIS have now closed their short position in gold. The BIS are now actively accumulating gold as are the other CBs.




The end of paper price manipulation has pretty much arrived. There may be some attempts into January 2023, but pretty much it's over.

jog on
duc


----------



## Sean K

ducati916 said:


> The BIS have now closed their short position in gold. The BIS are now actively accumulating gold as are the other CBs.
> 
> View attachment 150038
> 
> 
> The end of paper price manipulation has pretty much arrived. There may be some attempts into January 2023, but pretty much it's over.
> 
> jog on
> duc




JP Morgan might have opened some longs too.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

A number of factors will influence the POG between now and the end of January. 

1. Fund managers holidays.     
Most very, very rich FM's in the USA head to the Hamptons for Christmas or Hanukkah from about ten days before Christmas. Some unfortunately were forced to have an exposure to Crypto. Those who haven't lost their socks so far are desperately manipulating the price of BTC up above  $USD 1700 in an attempt to get out with some grace without ending up having sat on a candle, wick side up. Watch for large volume selling of BTC next week and decisions on where to park the moolah. "Gold will do " , do I hear?

2. War in Ukraine and beyond.
The Ukranians are doing a good job of putting it right up the Russians who as Corporal Jones famously quoted "They don't like it up 'em Sir". Rumours are coming to me that all is not good in the Kremlin. The usual hangers on are set to be windowed by the more aggressive Wagnerites and Chechnyans. Unfortunately this will not lead to peace rather a ramping up of hostilities possibly involving Poland, The Baltic States, Türkiye and Georgia amongst others. Gold will benefit from the possible implications of NATO direct involvement in the War. 

3. Gold has been quite resilient during Crypto's rise and fall, the favourite currency ( is it a currency? ) of mobsters, hackers, blackmailers, fraudsters, thugs, warlords, respected world leaders and those between the ages of 12 and 22 with acne. These creatures will doubtless still hold crypto enabling a market for BTC to fall benefitting Gold. 

It may seem that I have tied the further rise of Gold to Crypto's fall. That is for a reason. It is tied to a fall in Crypto. The latter is a huge market with $USD Trillions still in it. All waiting to move in to Gold. 

gg


----------



## DaveTrade

DaveTrade said:


> I got back into Gold last night at the open, above the price where I previously got out, I made the decision to trade each leg up. The gap was unfortunate for my entry point but it didn't surprise me, there are gaps all through this chart. Gaping into resistance can be a reversal point but obviously I think this is the beginning of the next leg up. We shall all see what unfolds, if I keep my risk down in the trade then I'll still be ok if it doesn't work out.
> View attachment 149998




I got stopped out of this one, the resistance zone proved to be too much for the market at this time. If the new up trend holds, determined by the 50sma, then I may get another entry. The number one rule of trading the markets is that we go with the flow of the market.


----------



## Sean K

Is this like leaving the fox in charge of the chicken coop.









						JPMorgan, HSBC to share custody of GLD's 900 tonnes of gold
					

Kitco News' general-interest stories takes a look at what is making headlines in the marketplace and how that is impacting precious metals prices



					www.kitco.com


----------



## aus_trader

I suppose just like manufacturing and other ventures, US is slowly withdrawing. The JPM move could be to diversify from CCP influence...


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> I suppose just like manufacturing and other ventures, US is slowly withdrawing. The JPM move could be to diversify from CCP influence...
> 
> View attachment 150171



And this is working both way, China is rushing to get out of the us right now.
China owners of US assets are selling or disengaging.
This is good for gold as not so good for peace/the world.


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> And this is working both way, China is rushing to get out of the us right now.
> China owners of US assets are selling or disengaging.
> This is good for gold as not so good for peace/the world.



Good point about the peace @qldfrog,

I am going to miss the One World / Global Marketplace days    ...and all those cheap manufactured goods !

I suppose on the positives you mentioned, could be good for Gold long term and maybe for the environment too with more durable goods that could last a lifetime like in the good old days. With less going to landfill with the 'use it once and throw it out' mindset these days with manufactured goods and plastic gadgets.


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## ducati916

From Zoltan Pozsar:









						Zoltan Pozsar: Gold At $3,600 Is Not Improbable If US Refill Reserves With Russian Oil
					

In his latest dispatch, Credit Suisse contributor Zoltan Pozsar shifted focus on his ongoing series about Bretton Woods III where




					thedeepdive.ca
				




jog on
duc


----------



## Sean K

ducati916 said:


> From Zoltan Pozsar:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zoltan Pozsar: Gold At $3,600 Is Not Improbable If US Refill Reserves With Russian Oil
> 
> 
> In his latest dispatch, Credit Suisse contributor Zoltan Pozsar shifted focus on his ongoing series about Bretton Woods III where
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thedeepdive.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc




It‘s an interesting theory. Likely?


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## mullokintyre

I fully expect a significant pull back tonite in the US market, as the manipulators flush out the last of the gold bugs.
Watching the action today, noticed that silver stocks in particular  are having a down day despite the positive moves in Silver overnight.
Almost all of my gold stocks down or at best neutral, despite t gold having a slight  increase overnight.
Once this next leg down is in, I will start adding selected gold stocks to the portfolio.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> I fully expect a significant pull back tonite in the US market, as the manipulators flush out the last of the gold bugs.
> Watching the action today, noticed that silver stocks in particular  are having a down day despite the positive moves in Silver overnight.
> Almost all of my gold stocks down or at best neutral, despite t gold having a slight  increase overnight.
> Once this next leg down is in, I will start adding selected gold stocks to the portfolio.
> Of course, I could be completely wrong.
> Mick




It all seems to be trending with perception of inflation/interest rates at the moment. If there's a report that supports increased interest rates - USD up / POG down, and vickiversa.


----------



## ducati916

Sean K said:


> It all seems to be trending with perception of inflation/interest rates at the moment. If there's a report that supports increased interest rates - USD up / POG down, and vickiversa.




Increased interest rates increase the rate of inflation.

This is how it works:




With the Fed disclosing a $1.25T dollar loss, no longer is the Fed remitting interest payments to the Treasury. The Treasury has to accelerate bond issuance to make up the shortfall.

Meanwhile, via the RRP, the Fed is paying Banks $500M/day (in freshly printed reserves) to NOT lend their $2.5T+ in excess reserves, so as not to fuel further inflation.




At least QE was somewhat balanced: the Fed removed bonds for cash. Now, the Fed just prints $500M+/day to give to the banks.

The higher interest rates go, the more they pay the banks. A rising interest rate, as gold has figured out, is inflationary.

jog on
duc


----------



## Sean K

ducati916 said:


> Increased interest rates increase the rate of inflation.
> 
> This is how it works:
> 
> View attachment 150279
> 
> 
> With the Fed disclosing a $1.25T dollar loss, no longer is the Fed remitting interest payments to the Treasury. The Treasury has to accelerate bond issuance to make up the shortfall.
> 
> Meanwhile, via the RRP, the Fed is paying Banks $500M/day (in freshly printed reserves) to NOT lend their $2.5T+ in excess reserves, so as not to fuel further inflation.
> 
> View attachment 150280
> 
> 
> At least QE was somewhat balanced: the Fed removed bonds for cash. Now, the Fed just prints $500M+/day to give to the banks.
> 
> The higher interest rates go, the more they pay the banks. A rising interest rate, as gold has figured out, is inflationary.
> 
> jog on
> duc




Here I was thinking that raising rates was a design to curb inflation...


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Here I was thinking that raising rates was a design to curb inflation...



Raising rate is a design to curb consumption and cool economies, Weimar economy or Zimbabwe during Mugabe had high even hyper inflation yet we can not really say that either had too much consumption or heated economies.ROL
Not all inflations are the same IMHO..


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> Raising rate is a design to curb consumption and cool economies, Weimar economy or Zimbabwe during Mugabe had high even hyper inflation yet we can not really say that either had too much consumption or heated economies.ROL
> Not all inflations are the same IMHO..



I did not mention also the raising of rate to counter a local currency collapse but that is not relevant currently


----------



## divs4ever

aus_trader said:


> Good point about the peace @qldfrog,
> 
> I am going to miss the One World / Global Marketplace days    ...and all those cheap manufactured goods !
> 
> I suppose on the positives you mentioned, could be good for Gold long term and maybe for the environment too with more durable goods that could last a lifetime like in the good old days. With less going to landfill with the 'use it once and throw it out' mindset these days with manufactured goods and plastic gadgets.



the market place might be dearer  , but the products will be more suited to local supply and demand  ( and possibly shorter supply chains )


----------



## eskys

We have golden pears today


----------



## Sean K

$1800 causing trouble.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> $1800 causing trouble.
> 
> View attachment 150374
> 
> View attachment 150373



It could go either way, but given the sh*t the world and Crypto is in, the longer it tracks sideways, the bigger the up move will be. 

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It could go either way, but given the sh*t the world and Crypto is in, the longer it tracks sideways, the bigger the up move will be.
> 
> gg



I still think they will knock it back to 1700 or so before the big boys have had enough.
mick


----------



## eskys

I don't want to get a hernia


----------



## DaveTrade

eskys said:


> I don't want to get a hernia



So you reckon there maybe some heavy lifting involved to get the gold price going up. I think it may be a timing issue, there is a big unknown in the next week with regard to interest rates.


----------



## eskys

DaveTrade said:


> So you reckon there maybe some heavy lifting involved to get the gold price going up. I think it may be a timing issue, there is a big unknown in the next week with regard to interest rates.



I was thinking if interest rates go up in the US, our dollar will weaken. But having said that, I don't know which way it's heading. 1700 is a  long way to fall, so I'm inclined to think this won't happen right now.........all guess work, Dave. What are your thoughts?


----------



## DaveTrade

eskys said:


> I was thinking if interest rates go up in the US, our dollar will weaken. But having said that, I don't know which way it's heading. 1700 is a  long way to fall, so I'm inclined to think this won't happen right now.........all guess work, Dave. What are your thoughts?



I don't know either mate so I just wait and what happens.


----------



## eskys

DaveTrade said:


> I don't know either mate so I just wait and what happens.



I like confessions ........the blind leading the blind, haha.

Have a great evening, Dave, everyone......better luck tomorrow.....


----------



## Sean K

Just teasing us?


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Just teasing us?
> 
> View attachment 150437



You will soon need to extend the date range for the next ceiling / support.
from like to love..gold bugs are happy


----------



## eskys

Our dollar rose last night +1.62% to .6855. Gold up 1.67% to 1822 USD. Markets expecting a smaller rate rise tonight, half a percent instead of a quarter percent.


----------



## qldfrog

eskys said:


> Our dollar rose last night +1.62% to .6855. Gold up 1.67% to 1822 USD. Markets expecting a smaller rate rise tonight, half a percent instead of a quarter percent.



Or the other way round?😊


----------



## eskys

qldfrog said:


> Or the other way round?😊



I'll bet half a percent, frog. The gold price was / has been factored in last night I think.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I just thought I'd post a 3 mo. chart of Bitcoin BTC with a Spot Gold chart overlaid.

I looked at it to see what effect a rise or fall in BTC or Gold had on the other.

It would appear that Crypto is not affected by the Gold price but that Gold is affected by a fall in Crypto.

Gold will hopefully stay above $USD 1800 and Crypto will crash, then I'll be happy.

When I kneel by my bed tonight I will bother god with a prayer, as if Crypto crashes and Gold keeps on moving up the next test will be   $USD 2000





gg


----------



## eskys

Seriously, I don't know what I want anymore.......watching something else now having sold  my goldie this morning....you don't have trouble getting up on bended knees, gg? Oops


----------



## Telamelo

I keep accumulating my Gold stocks whenever they dip.. as reckon the only way is up for Gold price heading into 2023/24 & beyond (my opinion/gut feeling only).


----------



## eskys

I'm gonna join gg in prayer tonight, and you know why.........


----------



## rcw1

eskys said:


> I'm gonna join gg in prayer tonight, and you know why.........



Y is a crooked letter and Z is no better ha ha ha ha


----------



## eskys

rcw1 said:


> Y is a crooked letter and Z is no better ha ha ha ha



They're all crooked, other than I, haha


----------



## ducati916

Will move higher:









jog on
duc


----------



## Telamelo

AUD Gold price @ $2,653   whilst US market's are down -2% as we speak..


----------



## eskys

Gold down USD 29.8   Our dollar almost 67cents

Dow minus 894, SP 500 minus 113 ,another hour of trading to go.

I got out of my goldie yesterday at a loss of a cent a share. Will watch today....good luck everyone


----------



## qldfrog

eskys said:


> Gold down USD 29.8   Our dollar almost 67cents
> 
> Dow minus 894, SP 500 minus 113 ,another hour of trading to go.
> 
> I got out of my goldie yesterday at a loss of a cent a share. Will watch today....good luck everyone



Gold in AUD should do well...was last time i checked ..so should gold miners in the short term


----------



## Sean K

Sean K said:


> Just teasing us?
> 
> View attachment 150437




Teasing us.


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> Gold in AUD should do well...was last time i checked ..so should gold miners in the short term




Up 20 bucks to $2650. Looks good from Mar 21. Pretty much sideways since Mar 22, like PMGOLD.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Wow what a daily bar.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning 

Hmmmmm
Gold may provide support here


----------



## eskys

Gold price will hold if our dollar holds...I think


----------



## eskys

Gold and our dollar is up at the moment.......$4.5 USD


----------



## rcw1

Gold is good.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## eskys

Gold up 15.2 and our dollar holding at .6688, rcw1. Thinking for a while I should also follow it in AUD......do you have a link to this, please? GG, Tela? thank you.


----------



## eskys

Found the link I needed...  ignore my request, rcw1, gg, Tela


----------



## divs4ever

Telamelo said:


> I keep accumulating my Gold stocks whenever they dip.. as reckon the only way is up for Gold price heading into 2023/24 & beyond (my opinion/gut feeling only).



now i did hear an interesting/disturbing  suggestion  from one commentator    of distressed Central Banks/Treasuries  compulsorily acquiring the production of local gold/silver miners  as 'an emergency measure ' and as such  one might wonder the price of the accumulation would be 'at fair market prices '

not saying they will, but some nations have demanded citizens hand in their gold ( or made it illegal to hold ) before in times of stress 

but yes nibbling on gold producers when they dip  , is what i am doing as well  ,

 gold price , it has been rigged for so long , the system needs to fail before you get true market prices ( gg probably has the best  idea on that )


----------



## Telamelo

Australian Gold price overnight looks bullish


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Quite an interesting close last night




Testing the previous monthly high with no rejection yet. The monthly close for April/closing swing high is also just ahead.

Promising, but my major concern now would be Mondays Asian open session as price will likely try to squeeze shorts above 2680 on low liquidity. These squeezes can get a fair bit of range as stops get run before supply comes back in as London opens.

In my experience watching a lot of these Monday squeezes in many markets, they haven't resolved well after the initial move.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning,
rcw1 yellow ave purchase price next to be sold by rcw1 p/t/o including coins is $2400 Aust. around $1635 US.  rcw1 will be in BRISvagus 14/01/23 + for business and pleasure... Gold Coast Magic Millions races ha ha ha ha ha ha....   If the pog is hovering around that $1950, always nice to be positive ha ha ha ha, give or take...  US mark, rcw1 will sell this holding, profit of btw $460 to $500 Australian p/t/o.  Just saying ... rcw1 would still be holding some gold, put away over past 40 years or so in the 'small safe' electrified and guarded loyal bodyguards 24/7 ha ha ha ha ha ha  - one too many coffees this morning decided where to bet coin on the gee gees,... 

Gold is good.  Upon the obliteration of fiat currency, through inept financial management, war, famine, pandemic, asteroid collision/disaster whatever, what do you have left?? Anarchy and Crypto?? ha ha ha ha ha

Re:  _accumulating my Gold stocks whenever they dip... ; _

As for gold stocks, nice to have several transactions running simultaneously and be in an out real fast... lightning fast 
rcw1 will buy on the rise, always.

Have a happy and safe Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## againsthegrain

rcw1 said:


> Good morning,
> rcw1 yellow ave purchase price next to be sold by rcw1 p/t/o including coins is $2400 Aust. around $1635 US.  rcw1 will be in BRISvagus 14/01/23 + for business and pleasure... Gold Coast Magic Millions races ha ha ha ha ha ha....   If the pog is hovering around that $1950, always nice to be positive ha ha ha ha, give or take...  US mark, rcw1 will sell this holding, profit of btw $460 to $500 Australian p/t/o.  Just saying ... rcw1 would still be holding some gold, put away over past 40 years or so in the 'small safe' electrified and guarded loyal bodyguards 24/7 ha ha ha ha ha ha  - one too many coffees this morning decided where to bet coin on the gee gees,...
> 
> Gold is good.  Upon the obliteration of fiat currency, through inept financial management, war, famine, pandemic, asteroid collision/disaster whatever, what do you have left?? Anarchy and Crypto?? ha ha ha ha ha
> 
> Re:  _accumulating my Gold stocks whenever they dip... ; _
> 
> As for gold stocks, nice to have several transactions running simultaneously and be in an out real fast... lightning fast
> rcw1 will buy on the rise, always.
> 
> Have a happy and safe Christmas and prosperous new year.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



I thought crypto was digital anarchy 😂


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

divs4ever said:


> now i did hear an interesting/disturbing  suggestion  from one commentator    of distressed Central Banks/Treasuries  compulsorily acquiring the production of local gold/silver miners  as 'an emergency measure ' and as such  one might wonder the price of the accumulation would be 'at fair market prices '
> 
> not saying they will, but some nations have demanded citizens hand in their gold ( or made it illegal to hold ) before in times of stress
> 
> but yes nibbling on gold producers when they dip  , is what i am doing as well  ,
> 
> gold price , it has been rigged for so long , the system needs to fail before you get true market prices ( gg probably has the best  idea on that )



I hadn't heard that opinion, to be honest. 

In the world today it would be nigh on impossible to implement the confiscation of Gold. Even in Roman and Medieval times any call on Gold by the Centre whether it be a Treasury or Bank was answered by a shovel, either on to the cranium or by digging in to the ground. 

My 7yo. Grandson and other Gumnut families are coming to stay for Christmas. He's quite handy on computers. I'll ask him to have a go at blocking blockchains. 

Watch this space. 

Last time he was here I taught him how to dig holes.

gg


----------



## finicky

Gold caught up and passed Palladium overnight. Or Palladium fell behind Gold - bit of both.


----------



## divs4ever

againsthegrain said:


> I thought crypto was digital anarchy 😂



arguably  bitcoin only  , the others seem to rely on exchanges ( virtual banks/trading desks )

 one might wonder if bitcoin  is fatally wounded  by tighter restrictions on international trade and delivery services ( bypass all that FX stuff )


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I hadn't heard that opinion, to be honest.
> 
> In the world today it would be nigh on impossible to implement the confiscation of Gold. Even in Roman and Medieval times any call on Gold by the Centre whether it be a Treasury or Bank was answered by a shovel, either on to the cranium or by digging in to the ground.
> 
> My 7yo. Grandson and other Gumnut families are coming to stay for Christmas. He's quite handy on computers. I'll ask him to have a go at blocking blockchains.
> 
> Watch this space.
> 
> Last time he was here I taught him how to dig holes.
> 
> gg



i imagine the first tranche of gold/silver confiscation  would be oblige  vaults ( like the Perth Mint ) to surrender clients holdings  to the central money pit ( Treasury )  much like they did in WW2  whether they reimburse with paper/digital certificates remains to be seen , 

 safety deposit boxes in banks and other places might easily be next  , along with a ban on legally trading the physical 

 would the Government  go from door-to-door with search-teams , i guess that would be the death of 'fair elections ' also   but would they do it 

 teach the grandson WHERE to dig holes  , some holes  look less interesting than others  ( wink )






						Bernard Cribbins Hole In The Ground
					

Bernard Cribbins cracking song Hole In The Ground, Proper British this, Enjoy!




					yewtu.be
				




 think back since 2019  and how many unthinkable things  have now come to pass  in less than 3 short years


----------



## rcw1

divs4ever said:


> i imagine the first tranche of gold/silver confiscation  would be oblige  vaults ( like the Perth Mint ) to surrender clients holdings  to the central money pit ( Treasury )  much like they did in WW2  whether they reimburse with paper/digital certificates remains to be seen ,
> 
> safety deposit boxes in banks and other places might easily be next  , along with a ban on legally trading the physical
> 
> would the Government  go from door-to-door with search-teams , i guess that would be the death of 'fair elections ' also   but would they do it
> 
> teach the grandson WHERE to dig holes  , some holes  look less interesting than others  ( wink )
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bernard Cribbins Hole In The Ground
> 
> 
> Bernard Cribbins cracking song Hole In The Ground, Proper British this, Enjoy!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> yewtu.be
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> think back since 2019  and how many unthinkable things  have now come to pass  in less than 3 short years



Very clever divs4ever, hadn't seen Bernard Cribbins Hole in Ground before.  Reckon in a couple of centuries time, when they find the lad in the bower hat, probably argue how he met his demise ...  We would know better 
Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## divs4ever

Bernard is better known for his song ' Right Said Fred '

 having gone a few hours of shifting houses  for folks , rental exit-cleans and 'hand-over cleans ' 



 have my own yarn about shifting a piano  ( pro-tip buy an electronic keyboard , even if you own the house you are moving to )


----------



## ducati916

Hold physical.




jog on
duc


----------



## Sean K

ducati916 said:


> Hold physical.
> 
> View attachment 150607
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc




I 😍 round bottoms.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning

Cited this passage in an AFR article, _Commodity market returns next year to rival 2021 boom _published 15/12/22 at 4.15pm.  

_Goldman expects gold prices to reach $US1950 an ounce on a 12-month horizon due to a stabilisation of exchange-traded fund holdings, China’s reopening and central banks buying the precious metal.  If the Fed is forced to cut interest rates in response to a US recession, gold prices could surge 20 per cent to 30 per cent, the broker said._

Anyways, this is the link:








						Commodity market returns next year to rival 2021 boom
					

Goldman Sachs believes the set-up for commodity markets is one of the most bullish since it first called another supercycle in October 2020.




					www.afr.com
				




Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## DaveTrade

I think that GLD could come down a bit from here before turning up.


----------



## ducati916

Rising interest rates in the US are starting to break stuff:








Which like the housing defaults in 2008 is deflationary. Now the loans (obviously) are much smaller. However, the US housing market is again falling and picking up speed.




Bank balance sheets will (should) record rising NPL's. An issue because they are (in the US) leveraged 11:1 (Japan & Europe 20:1). That leverage magnifies the NPLs.

This is the least of the Fed's issues, but it is the one that will catch media attention. The Fed will have to pivot far sooner than later. Then gold and silver 10X.

jog on
duc


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> Quite an interesting close last night
> 
> View attachment 150575
> 
> 
> Testing the previous monthly high with no rejection yet. The monthly close for April/closing swing high is also just ahead.
> 
> Promising, but my major concern now would be Mondays Asian open session as price will likely try to squeeze shorts above 2680 on low liquidity. These squeezes can get a fair bit of range as stops get run before supply comes back in as London opens.
> 
> In my experience watching a lot of these Monday squeezes in many markets, they haven't resolved well after the initial move.




No squeeze!

Todays session high is also the opening price, meaning not a single offer in the global OTC book was lifted.

In a sense, I am happy about this.


----------



## ducati916

Japan + China dumping USTs:







The implications are pretty obvious, ignoring China for the moment as they hold 30,000T of gold now:

(a) Japan sells UST to prop up the Yen as Japan is an energy importer;
(b) Japan no longer holds UST as a Reserve (buys less);
(c) US Treasury deficits are rising even faster than projected (what a shock);
(d) US Treasury needs to sell more UST;
(e) There are no buyer's other than the Fed and captive client commercial banks;
(f) Gradually bigger players realise that inflation is secular and start buying gold, mimicking the Central Banks.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Thanks duc @ducati916 .

Your fundamental burrowing and explanation  is always clear and useful. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I've had a look at the 10 year Gold chart and now believe we are at the beginning of a Wave 3 which will take out $US 2000 and possibly even $US 3000 at the least and much more over the next six months and much, much more on to the three year mark. 

The double top in 2020 and 2022 is a modified Wave 2 , a, b, a, c. and there is now enough momentum to commence the Wave 3. 




So from 2018 to 2020 there was a classical Wave 1 from 1200 to 2000. That is now completed by the modified Wave 2. In EW theory this type of Wave 2 is bullish for the subsequent Wave 3 which is often the longest wave. 

Disclosure : I'm biased and have some very, very big bets in various accounts and holes on Long Gold. 

If you ain't in, you can't win. 

If I lose I'll still have my family, my mates and enough cigar money to keep me comfortable while I regain my losses. 

If I win I'll have a Bentley Hybrid Mulliner which unfortunately only does a top speed of 170 mph which is about 270 kph. Then one has to compromise for the good of the planet and the coppers in Western Queensland and the NT on the long stretches have less of a sense of humour than when I bought my Arnage back in the late 90's. 

gg


----------



## Telamelo

Gold price shot up +2% overnight to US$1,828 .. equates to AUD$2,724 

P.S. disclosure holding BC8, TBA, WAF, RMS and EVN


----------



## ducati916

Big picture:










Lots of fundamental support buying dips.

jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

*A Story About Japan, the U.S. Dollar, & Gold

December 21, 2022 | Michael Reilly*

Investors woke up to a major macro surprise Tuesday morning when the Bank of Japan announced a de-facto rate hike by allowing the yield on their 10-Year Treasury to reach .50%.

Although the Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t actually raise rates, the net result is the same.

What the BOJ did was allow the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) trading band to widen by 25 bps (from 25 to 50 bps).

For decades, the BOJ has employed a monetary policy of low rates to encourage economic growth. They did so by capping the yield on JGBs at 25 bps (.25%).

So yesterday’s news is a major policy shift for Japan.

*And it’s a really big deal at a macro level.*

As far back as the 1990s, Japanese investors have had to look beyond their own borders for higher-yielding investments as an alternative to low-yielding JGB.

They often turned to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven that offered higher net yields. As of July 2022, Japanese investors were the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries in the world, accumulating over $1 trillion.

Up until now, it made sense for Japanese investors to convert yen to dollars and invest in higher-yielding U.S. Treasuries. However, yesterday’s policy shift by the BOJ is a game changer.

With the increase in yields at home, Japanese investors can now expect to be better rewarded by investing at home vs. looking to foreign markets.

The potential Intermarket implications are enormous.

The most obvious is the potential shift in demand away from U.S. Treasuries. If there’s less demand for Treasuries then bond prices fall… and when bond prices fall, yields rise.

Beyond that, I’m considering the impact from a currency perspective. Japan’s policy shift means a stronger Yen and a weaker U.S. Dollar (USD).

The USD is already well off its October peak, losing strength vs. other world currencies, so Japan’s policy change may just fuel a further exodus out of the USD.

In just the last three months, the British pound is up over 6.5% and the Euro has gained almost 6% vs. the USD, while the Yen has gained nearly 8%.




And while I’ve beat the drum all year that a falling dollar is historically a tailwind for stocks, there’s another beneficiary of a falling USD.

Precious metals… specifically that shiny metal – Gold!

Gold is another store of value and is often considered an alternative currency.

We can see the Intermarket relationship between the U.S Dollar and Gold here (HINT: It’s an inverse relationship).




The Formula is simple: Dollar rises = Gold falls. Dollar falls = Gold rises.

And in case you don’t track the USD as closely as we do, it peaked in October 2022.




As of this writing, USD sits at 103.97. What may be most interesting about that is it’s the same area that acted as resistance in 1999, 2016, and again in 2020.

Perhaps the most important question we should be asking is: Will prior resistance become new support (referred to as Polarity) or will the Dollar continue its descent?

If the USD can rebound, then Gold may have run its course. However, if the USD breaks down from here, Gold looks very interesting.

During the three-month slide in the USD (using DXY as our proxy) there is a nearly 12% performance differential with the advantage to Gold.

Gold is up *+6.72%*, while the Dollar is down* -5.23%*.




Hard to argue the reversal in the greenback since October has put a new charge in Gold.

Take a look at the performance of some of these Gold and Gold miner ETFs during the USD’s (DXY) recent slide.

DXY is down 5.23%, while the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) has gained 6.72%, the VanEck Gold miners ETF (GDX) has jumped over 15% (15.25%) and Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) has gained 12.61%.




And here’s Newmont Mining (NEM) up over 27% off its recent lows.




I’m not making a buy recommendation on Newmont, I’m illustrating NUM’s recent gains to further emphasize the Intermarket relationship between the USD and Gold-related stocks and commodities.

*Just to sum things up – here’s what investors want to remember…*

The shift in Japanese monetary policy will have major impacts on both Government Bonds (price and yield) and the currencies markets.

If the USD feels further downward pressure as the result of Japan’s new monetary policy, its descent will create opportunities in precious metals – Gold being a major beneficiary.

So there you have it: Continue to do your homework and invest accordingly (and wisely).



Happy Holidays & Prosperous New Year,


----------



## Sean K

Sean K said:


> Just teasing us?
> 
> View attachment 150437




It did tease us but kept trying to break through $1800. Looks pretty positive at the moment that that resistance could turn into support. But, it's been so volatile who knows.


----------



## Sean K

Geesh! I'm getting whiplash.


----------



## Sean K

AUD gold price has had a great run the past few months since Jul and Sep lows. Up 200 bucks. Seems to be heading towards ATHs around $2800s. Must be good for unhedged Australian producers.

6mth, 2yr, 5yr.


----------



## ducati916

AllStarCharts turns bullish.

File too large to load. If you want a copy PM me. It is 40pgs of charts and commentary on gold/silver etc.

jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

Looking at the GLD chart I would still like to see a bit of volume come in before I jump back into this market;


----------



## Telamelo

*Gold looks bullish at US$1,846 .. equates to AUD$2,730  *


----------



## aus_trader

Not sure if you guys noticed, somethings a little odd though...

Normally Gold strengthens on the back of a weakening US dollar. Just look at the USD weakening while the POG rose in the last couple of months (see below charts). But in this occasion, they are moving up together !


----------



## ducati916

aus_trader said:


> Not sure if you guys noticed, somethings a little odd though...
> 
> Normally Gold strengthens on the back of a weakening US dollar. Just look at the USD weakening while the POG rose in the last couple of months (see below charts). But in this occasion, they are moving up together !
> 
> View attachment 151195
> 
> 
> View attachment 151196





Which indicates that the end game for the USD is fast approaching:




Money supply (growth) has turned negative. This drives liquidity issues. Demand for the USD rises. Paradoxically, a rising USD indicates that the liquidity crisis draws closer. The only way to alleviate the liquidity crisis is to reverse and create huge numbers of USD, which of course destroys the USD.

Those that understand are moving to safety: Gold & Silver.

The Central Banks have been doing so for some time.

jog on
duc


----------



## rcw1

Good morning


GOLD Strategy Today JANUARY,3TH| XAUUSd latest Analysis Today| XAUUSD Forecast Today #trading #fx​
Onwards and upwards  1855 -1920 US; according to this author, well then, here's hoping  ...  
Personally, irrespective of these comments made most excited about gold prices northerly direction, have been so for some time now.
Like everything in this game, prices go up and prices go down ...  

Interesting times, hopfully everybody get to fulfil their 2023 goals in making coin.
Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## InsvestoBoy

InsvestoBoy said:


> Wow what a daily bar.
> 
> View attachment 150542






InsvestoBoy said:


> No squeeze!
> 
> Todays session high is also the opening price, meaning not a single offer in the global OTC book was lifted.
> 
> In a sense, I am happy about this.




It's been interesting journey since that "wow" daily outside bar, resolving in last night's crazy move where gold was up and the AUD got smoked and it all seemed to happen so fast during the London session before NY opened. COMEX didn't bring any willing sellers at all.

I think we could test the 2766 monthly closing swing high from Jul/Aug 2020 and it'll be interesting to see what happens when we get there.

Let's see what happens I guess. Before last nights action, it still seemed like the wall of supply between ~2600-~2700 that capped the price for all of 2022 was intact. Anyone who has gold to sell in AUD would be laughing at these prices, an absence of supply here sends its own message.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

InsvestoBoy said:


> It's been interesting journey since that "wow" daily outside bar, resolving in last night's crazy move where gold was up and the AUD got smoked and it all seemed to happen so fast during the London session before NY opened. COMEX didn't bring any willing sellers at all.
> 
> I think we could test the 2766 monthly closing swing high from Jul/Aug 2020 and it'll be interesting to see what happens when we get there.
> 
> Let's see what happens I guess. Before last nights action, it still seemed like the wall of supply between ~2600-~2700 that capped the price for all of 2022 was intact. Anyone who has gold to sell in AUD would be laughing at these prices, an absence of supply here sends its own message.
> 
> View attachment 151211



That is a positive looking chart for Gold in $AUD. 

However I would still exercise some caution for those new to accumulating Gold ( I've been since the early 1980's and in differing currencies depending on where they have washed me up ) and am well ahead.

I prefer to look at the Gold chart in $USD, and it looks as if it will eventually convincingly break $USD 1850 and upwards to 2000 or even 3000 this year.

Small events can change the supply of Gold though. An example is @peter2 's pick of GCM over the last 2 months. It is a graphene/graphite outfit and I like graphene but the buggers are drilling perilously close to some of my stashed Gold on the Barkly. I may have to wake Švejk up and get him to drive me in the Arnage through some floodwaters over that way and dig some bar up. The last thing I want is some half wit assayer to assay some of my bar and cause both @peter2 and my stake in GCM to rocket at my expense. 

Also I am not too sure how long ole Joe Biden has got left on the coil and the crooner Kamahl will spook every market known to god and man when he/she gets in. ( How did an Aussie crooner become VPOTUS ?? ). I don't like to be ageist but really, if Ole Joe came looking for a job at the Hotel he'd be lucky to get a job as a yardman and even then we'd have to insert a GPS in to him in case he wandered off. 

Finally remember that supply and demand for Gold is largely hidden. In Croesus' day he cornered the market. However the cousins in Russia, Saudi, China and US Hedge Funds and Fed these days could change the balance instantly. 

Nonetheless I remain optimistic. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

This has been a pretty good run through some significant resistance points after the triple bottom last Sep/Oct. Nice rounded bottom on the GDX continues to climb the right hand of the cup.


----------



## againsthegrain

Garpal Gumnut said:


> That is a positive looking chart for Gold in $AUD.
> 
> However I would still exercise some caution for those new to accumulating Gold ( I've been since the early 1980's and in differing currencies depending on where they have washed me up ) and am well ahead.
> 
> I prefer to look at the Gold chart in $USD, and it looks as if it will eventually convincingly break $USD 1850 and upwards to 2000 or even 3000 this year.
> 
> Small events can change the supply of Gold though. An example is @peter2 's pick of GCM over the last 2 months. It is a graphene/graphite outfit and I like graphene but the buggers are drilling perilously close to some of my stashed Gold on the Barkly. I may have to wake Švejk up and get him to drive me in the Arnage through some floodwaters over that way and dig some bar up. The last thing I want is some half wit assayer to assay some of my bar and cause both @peter2 and my stake in GCM to rocket at my expense.
> 
> Also I am not too sure how long ole Joe Biden has got left on the coil and the crooner Kamahl will spook every market known to god and man when he/she gets in. ( How did an Aussie crooner become VPOTUS ?? ). I don't like to be ageist but really, if Ole Joe came looking for a job at the Hotel he'd be lucky to get a job as a yardman and even then we'd have to insert a GPS in to him in case he wandered off.
> 
> Finally remember that supply and demand for Gold is largely hidden. In Croesus' day he cornered the market. However the cousins in Russia, Saudi, China and US Hedge Funds and Fed these days could change the balance instantly.
> 
> Nonetheless I remain optimistic.
> 
> gg



wow u been holding gold as long as I have been alive, I guess being a very LT holder there is no price range that you would sell it all at?  I guess its like money in the bank dig out a withdrawal when you need one. 

I am just a young punk to the game holding 1 or perhaps 2 kg for last 2-3 years but if the prices were to double it would be very hard not to sell, at least half


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## ducati916

Possibly an under-appreciated headline:





Which of course also means eliminating UST as a reserve asset.

The Saudi's are also playing this game:




Again, under-appreciated.

While (most) eyes are on the Ukraine, the currency war goes largely un-reported. It is the currency war that will have the greatest repercussions for the little guy unless of course the hot war goes nuclear.

jog on
duc


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## Sean K

TA discussion on POG from 14.37.


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## Roller_1

does anyone here use Commsec and buys a Gold ETF? Someone asked me and I don’t use commsec but was curious what people use


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## Sean K

Roller_1 said:


> does anyone here use Commsec and buys a Gold ETF? Someone asked me and I don’t use commsec but was curious what people use




Most brokers should allow you to buy gold ETFs. Check the PMGOLD and GOLD threads for more info.


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## rcw1

Roller_1 said:


> does anyone here use Commsec and buys a Gold ETF? Someone asked me and I don’t use commsec but was curious what people use



Good morning Roller_1,
Twice. thrice now in 48 hours, people will talk ha ha ha ha ha

yes






						What is an Exchange Traded Fund?
					

2017.12.12 - Find out more about the benefits and risks of an ETF




					www.commsec.com.au
				




_How to buy and sell ETFs with CommSec

If you’re looking for a tool to help you choose an ETF, you can try the CommSec ETF Screener. Once logged in, click on “Quotes & Research”, followed by “Tools” and then “ETF Screener”. From here, you can browse ETFs by asset class, region, market cap, and sector.

Before you invest in a particular ETF, you should research the fund, read the PDS and make sure you understand the potential risks. If you have any questions, contact your financial adviser.

*In terms of buying and selling ETFs, the process is much the same as buying or selling shares. Simply log in to your online trading account and place an order.*
_
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## DaveTrade




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## Roller_1

rcw1 said:


> people will talk ha ha ha ha ha







Thanks he got the info he needed. I wasn't sure of commsecs offerings. 

Cheers


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## Sean K

I remember $1850 was a critical level some time ago where we thought it was a break out point. That might have been about a year ago...

Interesting USD gold and EURUSD correlation. What happens when USD appreciated again...

USD indexes all up around 2%, hopefully a good day for gold stocks on Monday.


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## Telamelo

Overnight saw a strong rally! Gold looks headed back up to re-test US$2,000 level again imo


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## eskys

Our dollar now over 69 cents. To be precise, it's 69.08 and gold up $12 at 1881.60..............going places today........


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## Sean K

eskys said:


> Our dollar now over 69 cents. To be precise, it's 69.08 and gold up $12 at 1881.60..............going places today........




Strong correlation between various currencies and USDPOG.


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## aus_trader

All the local Gold stocks in my watchlist were up today, Resolute Mining Ltd (RSG) by a lot...


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## ducati916

Gold








Wait, there's more!

Mr McLeod:









						Macleod - This Is The Word Out Of Asia As Gold Price Approaches $1,900 - King World News
					

Today London analyst Alasdair Macleod spoke with King World News about what he is being told by his contacts in Asia as the price of gold approaches the $1,900 level.




					kingworldnews.com
				




The rise of gold into a hiking environment from the Fed. is/was the signal that a huge surge from gold is on the cards.




The ETFs are actually selling gold as the price rises. This is the exact opposite of how they 'should' operate. It is more easily seen with silver.





It is also happening with gold.

Simply, the BBs responsible for suppressing the 'paper price' need to hold as much physical as possible to contain the leverage. With CBs buying so much, Russia and the Saudi's pushing oil for gold, the physical is fast disappearing and needs to be supplemented from the ETFs that hold physical. Hence, as the price rises, sales of physical from the ETFs will also rise.

jog on
duc


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## Garpal Gumnut

ducati916 said:


> Gold
> 
> View attachment 151454
> View attachment 151453
> View attachment 151452
> View attachment 151451
> View attachment 151450
> 
> 
> Wait, there's more!
> 
> Mr McLeod:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Macleod - This Is The Word Out Of Asia As Gold Price Approaches $1,900 - King World News
> 
> 
> Today London analyst Alasdair Macleod spoke with King World News about what he is being told by his contacts in Asia as the price of gold approaches the $1,900 level.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kingworldnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The rise of gold into a hiking environment from the Fed. is/was the signal that a huge surge from gold is on the cards.
> 
> View attachment 151455
> 
> 
> The ETFs are actually selling gold as the price rises. This is the exact opposite of how they 'should' operate. It is more easily seen with silver.
> 
> View attachment 151457
> View attachment 151456
> 
> 
> It is also happening with gold.
> 
> Simply, the BBs responsible for suppressing the 'paper price' need to hold as much physical as possible to contain the leverage. With CBs buying so much, Russia and the Saudi's pushing oil for gold, the physical is fast disappearing and needs to be supplemented from the ETFs that hold physical. Hence, as the price rises, sales of physical from the ETFs will also rise.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Exactly my thinking duc, but I don't have the eloquence to put it as you have. 

I'm actually looking to add. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut

It would appear that the cousins in Russia, Saudi and China have finally pushed Gold up past $USD 1850 convincingly. 




gg


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