Zinc - The Metal for 2007

[dj_420]

significant rise in cancelled warrants today

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx?com=zn

looks like zinc could make a good run soon, zinc stocks well of highs from last year and LME supplies still dropping. my only zinc stock at moment is JML, started producing last week! so im hoping that they are producing in perfect time with market cycles.

am looking at picking up CBH, KZL or ZFX for next run.

 

[toothfairy]

Zn is the most steadily depleting metal stock in LME in the past 3 months yet the price is stucked like having indigestion & I am getting impatient. Can anyone explain why? In contrary, Ni stock is steadily increasing yet price stay high.

 

[Col Lector]

gidday toothfairy, Have a look at http://www.metalsinsider.com/. The weekly review to June 4 has a good perspective on this.
I recommend subscribing to the free daily email newsletter they offer...very current & comprehensive.

 

[BREND]

Zn is the most steadily depleting metal stock in LME in the past 3 months yet the price is stucked like having indigestion & I am getting impatient. Can anyone explain why? In contrary, Ni stock is steadily increasing yet price stay high.

If only making money from trading is so easy...

 

[michael_selway]

Zn is the most steadily depleting metal stock in LME in the past 3 months yet the price is stucked like having indigestion & I am getting impatient. Can anyone explain why? In contrary, Ni stock is steadily increasing yet price stay high.

this is an example of how you can find "value" in the stock market

thx

MS

 

[toothfairy]

this is an example of how you can find "value" in the stock market

thx

MS

If price of Zn stays low, how can there be "value" in the stock market when a company depends on it to make profit.
Look, for example today's Zn stockpile dropped the most %tage wise amongst all base metals, yet it is down the most at the moment (2% as I type). Not to mention about gold, another disappointing useles metal.
Cheers.

 

[michael_selway]

If price of Zn stays low, how can there be "value" in the stock market when a company depends on it to make profit.
Look, for example today's Zn stockpile dropped the most %tage wise amongst all base metals, yet it is down the most at the moment (2% as I type). Not to mention about gold, another disappointing useles metal.
Cheers.

You have to "buy low and sell high"

If Zn price is truly worth more, eventually price will go up to match its true value

thx

MS

 

[nizar]

You have to "buy low and sell high"

Well in my opinion, its better to buy high and sell higher.

Trying to pick a bottom is very hard. And the turnaround time could be a long time.

But when a stock is going up, momentum says it is more likely to go up further than one going sideways or down.

Add to that minimal overhead resistance, and a bit of volume on the break, and you have yourself a winner.

 

[dj_420]

If price of Zn stays low, how can there be "value" in the stock market when a company depends on it to make profit.
Look, for example today's Zn stockpile dropped the most %tage wise amongst all base metals, yet it is down the most at the moment (2% as I type). Not to mention about gold, another disappointing useles metal.
Cheers.

you have to remember all these prices are much higher than historical figures, and if we see zinc stockpiles continue to deplete, dont worry the zinc price will catch up.

i would rather slow and steady increases than huge crazy volatile swings!

 

[BREND]

Zn is the most steadily depleting metal stock in LME in the past 3 months yet the price is stucked like having indigestion & I am getting impatient. Can anyone explain why? In contrary, Ni stock is steadily increasing yet price stay high.

Zinc follows copper very closely, so when copper price falls zinc price falls as well. There is huge supply of zinc in China, and when zinc price is high again, China merchants will again deliver their goods into LME.

As for Nickel, can't u see that price is coming down slowly now?

 

[dj_420]

why would china turn back into a zinc importor again this year if zinc supplies are so high???

IMO they dumped excess on LME last year flattened the price and are now importing again as they have depleted supplies.

i will dig up article i found regarding this

 

[BREND]

why would china turn back into a zinc importor again this year if zinc supplies are so high???

IMO they dumped excess on LME last year flattened the price and are now importing again as they have depleted supplies.

i will dig up article i found regarding this

Did u misunderstand my message? I say China may deliver zinc into LME again if price is high, this is call export, not import.

 

[dj_420]

lol

sorry my post sounds confusing, what i am saying is how much of a stockpile does china have to dump back on LME???

surely they do not have infinite supplies of zinc. they changed from exporter back to importer as they had depleted their supplies over xmas period.

also with export taxes increasing will cut the amount of "encouragement" that china has to dump on higher spot price swings.

their metal consumption is up, LME supplies down lower than when china dumped last year.

so you are bearish on zinc price??

 

[BREND]

lol

sorry my post sounds confusing, what i am saying is how much of a stockpile does china have to dump back on LME???

surely they do not have infinite supplies of zinc. they changed from exporter back to importer as they had depleted their supplies over xmas period.

also with export taxes increasing will cut the amount of "encouragement" that china has to dump on higher spot price swings.

their metal consumption is up, LME supplies down lower than when china dumped last year.

so you are bearish on zinc price??

I'm not bearish nor bullish on zinc. Currently I need more data to predict future direction of base metals, data looks mixed, staying on the sideline now.

 

[BREND]

lol

sorry my post sounds confusing, what i am saying is how much of a stockpile does china have to dump back on LME???

surely they do not have infinite supplies of zinc. they changed from exporter back to importer as they had depleted their supplies over xmas period.

also with export taxes increasing will cut the amount of "encouragement" that china has to dump on higher spot price swings.

their metal consumption is up, LME supplies down lower than when china dumped last year.

so you are bearish on zinc price??

I'm bearish on Lead now.

 

[Damuzzdu]

I'm bearish on Lead now.

This would because of Xstrata resuming Lead supplies in July????

Cheers
Muzz

 

[Damuzzdu]

Any good fall in Zinc stocks down to 71825 Mt a fall of -1300 Mt.

With cancelled warrants running at 12% of total stocks, the available zinc from LME is nearly down to 60000 Mt.

Wonder if this will start to provide any pricing support for Zinc which has been under a little bit of pressure the last few days??

Cheers
Muzz

 

[toothfairy]

Any good fall in Zinc stocks down to 71825 Mt a fall of -1300 Mt.

With cancelled warrants running at 12% of total stocks, the available zinc from LME is nearly down to 60000 Mt.

Wonder if this will start to provide any pricing support for Zinc which has been under a little bit of pressure the last few days??

Cheers
Muzz

No, its not related at all as I mentioned previously. I won't be surprised if POZ goes down 2-3% tonight. Or if they really want to prove I am wrong, I won't complain.

 

[BREND]

Any good fall in Zinc stocks down to 71825 Mt a fall of -1300 Mt.

With cancelled warrants running at 12% of total stocks, the available zinc from LME is nearly down to 60000 Mt.

Wonder if this will start to provide any pricing support for Zinc which has been under a little bit of pressure the last few days??

Cheers
Muzz

Zinc follows copper very closely. Zinc price will rise if you see copper rise tonight. I will wait for tomorrow Shanghai inventory level before making a judgement on the copper and zinc.

 

[dj_420]

No, its not related at all as I mentioned previously. I won't be surprised if POZ goes down 2-3% tonight. Or if they really want to prove I am wrong, I won't complain.

i would have thought it was related, cancelled warrants increase means increase in drawdowns on previously purchased metal, which in turn means more metal will have to be bought.

this happened around xmas last year, was going well until chinese dumped zinc onto market.