Zinc the metal for 2006

michael_selway said:

Do u know what, i think Zinc LME stocks will go down to 0 by Oct 2006

I know that in mid 2007 supply will exceed demand as forecast by many, however its too late!

In which case yes it will go to $4,000 us/t, but not only that, since its so low, it may turn into a huge bubble, looking at $10,000+ us/t which may last a few months before it crashes back to normal levels like maybe $4,000 us/t?

Time to put your house on zinc stocks u think? or wait a bit longer first and see if the LME supplies can reach closer to 0?

Just a thought

thx

MS

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professor_frink said:

Hey MS, seen as though your a fundie you could probably answer this- what would be fair value on ZFX at 10,00 us/t?

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michael_selway said:

hm if assuming $10,000+ is only a shorterm thing (a few months)...ZFX can probabaly reach a peak of $25-30. However if it is a longer term (6-12months) thing $35-40. It really depends on the supply increase response in 2007 as analysts have forecasted

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 35.9 149.5 185.0 141.6
DPS 4.0 32.5 44.0 29.0

thx

MS

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tech/a said:

INL

Been on this a week,may slip under the zinc radar.

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Kipp said:

Heya Folks,
could someone explain the LME stockpiling system or direct em to a link that does. Obviously from the Zinc and Nickel charts it is intimately (and inversely) linked to prices. But surely the LME only controls stockpiles for the for the U.K. so it doesn't have control over GLOBAL commodity prices?

And Michael- I enjoy your posts but aren't you getting a bit carried away with commsec and their forecasts? How accurate are they really? I mean the MAp EPS forecast was something pathetic like 15c for 2006... Are they any other brokers/websites offering free forecast services?

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michael_selway said:

LME is kind of like a warehouse for global base metal storage, usualy excess supply over demand will be added and when demand exceeds supply, it will be shipped out ("cancelled" first). The other places where they store basemetals is Nymex (Comex) and Shanghai although they only hold Copper and Aluminium below are the links

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yogi-in-oz said:

Hi folks,

As requested Michael, we started on a long analysis
on zinc prices, but not having any recent historical
data, it proved too complex .....

..... suffice to say, we expect more of the same from
zinc prices, until about the December 2007 solstice
18-24122007.

-----

For most traders, it is more PRACTICAL to analyze the
individual zinc stocks. While the zinc price may be
the fundamental driver for the industry as a whole,
not all those stocks will participate at the same time,
due to a wide variation in their own natural cycles.

-----

In fact, we can line up all the zinc stocks mentioned in
this thread, around the 360 degree dial and come up
with a likely sequence, WHEN they will react to the
same cycle one-by-one, as each aspect progresses,
around the dial.

For example, right now, we can see that JML should be
triggered on 12-13072006, with ZFX a few days later,
on 17072006 .....

Then, for the same cycle, the order goes AIM, INL, KZL,
TZN, CBH and UCL, all on different dates .....

-----

..... and on ZFX ..... so, you think it's high now???

Come back in December 2006 for another look,
but more importantly will be the run up into
December 2007 ..... should be HUGE !~!

If we get time on this end, this could be a good
project ..... "tag-the-zinc-stock" ..... lol

have a great weekend all

yogi

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yogi-in-oz said:

Hi folks,

As requested Michael, we started on a long analysis
on zinc prices, but not having any recent historical
data, it proved too complex .....

..... suffice to say, we expect more of the same from
zinc prices, until about the December 2007 solstice
18-24122007.

..... and on ZFX ..... so, you think it's high now???

Come back in December 2006 for another look,
but more importantly will be the run up into
December 2007 ..... should be HUGE !~!

If we get time on this end, this could be a good
project ..... "tag-the-zinc-stock" ..... lol

have a great weekend all

yogi

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yogi-in-oz said:

Hi MS,

..... no consideration given to LME stockpiles, at all.

That "HUGE" was referring to ZFX astroanalysis, as not only
will it be enjoying some very favourable sentiment, in its
own right ..... but, we also see one ruler of zinc making a
rendezvous with the ruler of all things underground, at late
degrees in the sign, so there will likely be a significant
"expansion" in zinc, including the price .....

..... that may end quite abruptly, after the December 2007
solstice .....

-----

On KZL example ..... that same time cycle should be positive
around, 28072006 and PEM very soon after, on 28-31072006
and should also show positive sentiment ... ???

Given the positive outlook for zinc stocks, we will probably
work slowly through each zinc stock, posting key dates and
supporting analysis, as we go .....

happy days

yogi

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