Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Zinc the metal for 2006

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rederob said:
Not quite, MS.
The driving force of a base metal's fundamentals is always its rate of drawdown: This can best be noted through the volume of stock cancelled as a percentage of total stock.
Typically when this rises above 10 percent, a metal's fundamentals tighten and we need inflows in oder to move back to "balance".
Balance is typically where cancellations are around 5% of total stock.
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Cancellations in zinc has decreased since the sudden spike in zinc prices but this may be due to the fact buyers are holding off waiting for prices to come down a little and not because of a decrease in demand.
 
noirua said:
???? Does this mean you have sold all your URANIUM stocks etc., Y_T. ????
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All gone except GBE which I actually bought only last week as it was the only U-Stock to have not run and was sitting at 6month lows, ran a bit on Friday before trading halt, be interesting to see what's going on.

But as I said I'm expceting a correction so I took profits everywhere.
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
All gone except GBE which I actually bought only last week as it was the only U-Stock to have not run and was sitting at 6month lows, ran a bit on Friday before trading halt, be interesting to see what's going on,


But as I said I'm expceting a correction so I took profits everywhere
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Well done! If you carry on in this fashion you have to become very rich at some stage, not many manage to sell everything. One quite rich person was asked why he had not made an absolute fortune, he said " because I failed to take my own advice" - there is quite a lot in that for us all to contemplate.
 
I reckon there'll be a good buying opp in Zn stocks shortly, if not tomorrow. The supply demand equation seems like it's going to remain short term at least (into 07 by most analysist that I've read) so might be good to buy on dips. I'm still on CBH (not much) and will probably top up when we have a decent pull back.

Anyone think think the zinc shortfall is going to change shortly? Or best we keep focussed on it for a while? Is there a zinc bear out there?
 
If I take ZFX performance at the end of this week it pull back on thursday to gain everything back and more on friday so I think we are likely to see this type of volatilty again in the near future as people get nervous about record high price.
The fundamentals of some commodities such as ZINC appears that there is not enough of it which has to benefit company such as ZFX which still very very cheap on P/E ratio.
Any pull back will be a good buying opportunity in my opinion
 
kennas said:
I reckon there'll be a good buying opp in Zn stocks shortly, if not tomorrow. The supply demand equation seems like it's going to remain short term at least (into 07 by most analysist that I've read) so might be good to buy on dips. I'm still on CBH (not much) and will probably top up when we have a decent pull back.

Anyone think think the zinc shortfall is going to change shortly? Or best we keep focussed on it for a while? Is there a zinc bear out there?
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im with YT on this.
watch us$1.80/lb as a support level, price should bounce off it.
 
noirua said:
Well done! If you carry on in this fashion you have to become very rich at some stage, not many manage to sell everything. One quite rich person was asked why he had not made an absolute fortune, he said
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Too true....convinced myself out of selling my zfx znd kzl on friday....never mind....got some more zfx at 16.10 this morning......stockpiles are still not going up any time soon, and I read an article from the australian saying metals in general are expected to fall in price, but Zinc is expected to rise by 18% over the next 3 months.....so I'm not panicing at all......:)
 
If you go to Kitco metals at http://www.kitcometals.com/

and have a look at the price charts compared with supply charts, its interesting to note that the supply of the key metals was dropping even in the May correction. Zinc and Nickel are still in shorter than historical supply.

The lack of demand for these metals in the short term cannot be based on the supply and demand fundementals, only speculation of future demand right? So if this is the case, the price will come back up very shortly, as well as the share prices of the equities that are exposed to them....so this is just a buying opportunity....right?
 
CanOz said:
If you go to Kitco metals at http://www.kitcometals.com/

and have a look at the price charts compared with supply charts, its interesting to note that the supply of the key metals was dropping even in the May correction. Zinc and Nickel are still in shorter than historical supply.

The lack of demand for these metals in the short term cannot be based on the supply and demand fundementals, only speculation of future demand right? So if this is the case, the price will come back up very shortly, as well as the share prices of the equities that are exposed to them....so this is just a buying opportunity....right?
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Short term can mean longer than ONE DAY.
"Very shortly" in May meant several weeks.
 
Seems to me a lot of traders know that the zinc boom is going to pop one day - and when it does they don't want to be on it. Realistically though, there are no signs that now is the time - stocks keep dropping, theres some supply side issues and the Friday drop is just going to increase demand.

nizar: while it's several weeks until the stock price reaches the previous high - its not like the stocks are going down for several weeks in a row!! In September, i think it was, zinc fell 8-9% in one LME day of trading and zfx hit 10.50 on that day - the low for that period (and since then). So while zinc didn't recover to its previous highs for over a month, was that still a good buying opportunity in hindsight?? What's so different about today (except a smaller zinc fall!)
 
Zn down to 1.96/1.97, but LME stocks under 95K, and continue to slide. Strange anomoly.
 
kennas said:
Zn down to 1.96/1.97, but LME stocks under 95K, and continue to slide. Strange anomoly.
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Look at charts in May-June.
Stocks went from 260ktonnes to 230ktonnes but the price went from 1.80 to 1.35.
So "strange anomolys" do happen.

Every bullrun has corrections and we just mite be seeing one now.
 
WOW....you all look at it as down turn...I can only see an upside.....what happened in the past is gonna gonna make you a poorer person, if you trade to the old rules....look to the future....HEHE...anyone got any ZINC?.....Big traders trying to get you to sell before the real big boys try a TAKEOVER.... if you ask me!....

Stuff the graphs when this happens ....I hold still...AVERAGE 12.80....and happy as puke in a toilet...lol...hehehehehehe....gawd I'm a wierdo!

Sorry ..I'm in the middle of gutting a few fish.....and a bourbon....lol...:)
 
How much of this, "correction" do you think is in anticipation to a possible easing of demand next year? Or do you think the lack of supply in stock makes this irrelevant?
 
Geeez! Zinc has had one crazy night!!

I'm off to bed now, but several times during the night, I'd take a break from my last minute cram (for uni exams) to check the kitco prices.

In the evening, it was about 1.95, before midnight it was 1.88 and now, it's back above 2.00!
 

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