This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Zinc the metal for 2006

Thanks fellas,
I find short-term analysis of the LME stocks difficult because Cancellations occur fairly sporadically (as opposed to "Ins" which seem more frequent- though far smaller in terms of tonnage). Possibly this is caused by the high spot prices. Zinc consumers wait till the last minute to place orders (in the hope that there will be a fall in the meantime?)

Disclaimer: my viewpoints/opinions expressed on the LME/commodities are worth only about 30% of Rederobs and 50% of YT's (though maybe the same as MS... )
 
Sorry guys had this in CBH thread but prob is much more relevant here



China's Zinc Demand to Increase 56% by 2010, Antaike Forecasts

By Chia-Peck Wong

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The demand for zinc in China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, may rise 56 percent by 2010, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. has forecast.

The country may need 4.8 million metric tons of zinc by the end of the decade, from 3.08 million tons in 2005, as it requires more of the metal to coat steel to prevent corrosion, Feng Juncong, a senior analyst at Antaike, a research agency that advises the government, said yesterday at a conference.

``As China's construction and transportation sectors grow, consumption has entered its peak growth rate,'' she said in a presentation in Inner Mongolia, a region in western China.

Zinc prices in London have surged 75 percent this year and reached a record $4,000 a ton in May on expectations China's expanding economy will require more metals, while smelter output in China has been stymied by a lack of mined material.

``China will definitely need to rely on imports to fulfill its annual needs'' in the next few years, said Feng, who has been tracking the industry for 12 years and correctly forecast China would become a net importer of refined zinc in 2004.

The domestic supply of mined zinc is likely to lag behind demand by more than 10 percent this year, pushing up concentrate prices, she said. She didn't provide an estimate of China's zinc production in 2010, saying that the country is likely to remain a net importer till then.

This year, China's net imports of zinc products, including mined output, or so-called concentrates, are likely to be stable at 860,000 tons, little changed from last year, as higher internationally-traded prices led Chinese smelters to export more, she said.

Record Forecast

Zinc prices in London, which have fallen about 16 percent from their record, are likely post a new peak in the fourth quarter as stockpiles continue to dwindle, Feng said.

``The fundamental demand and supply factors are still good,'' she said, without forecasting how high prices may rise.

Zinc stockpiles at warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have plunged 55 percent this year to 179,175 tons as of yesterday, the lowest since early 1992.

China's lead consumption may surge 43 percent to 2.3 million tons in 2010 as demand from lead-acid battery makers soars 65 percent to 1.79 million tons, Feng said.

The forecast is ``definitely conservative as over the past 10 years, apparent consumption in China has grown 20 percent every year,'' she said.

Industry consultants including Michael Komesaroff said that developing Inner Mongolia's lead and zinc resources may help China reduce its dependence on imports.

`Own Resources'

``China will prefer to develop its own resources rather than buying from overseas,'' Komesaroff, managing director of Urandaline Investments Pty., said by phone from the northeastern Australian state of Queensland on Aug. 21.

Inner Mongolia is ``highly prospective'' in terms of lead and zinc, he said.

Of the 1.82 million tons of zinc concentrate produced in China last year, 15 percent came from the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia, making it China's third-biggest producer after Yunnan and Gansu, Feng said.

The region ranked as China's top producer of mined lead last year, accounting for 15 percent of total output of 630,000 tons, she said.

There are other advantages exploring for lead and zinc in Inner Mongolia, which possesses China's second-biggest resources of both metals, as many deposits also contain other metals such as silver, she said.

Inner Mongolia's government plans to spend 2 billion yuan ($251 million) in the next five years to explore for mines, Zheng Fanshen, vice director and general engineer of the region's prospecting and exploitation bureau, told reporters at the conference yesterday. Coal was the first priority, and base metals such as copper, lead and zinc the second, Zheng said.

To contact the reporter for this story: Chia-Peck Wong in Inner Mongolia at cpwong@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 23, 2006 21:35 EDT
 
Thanks for the article Cath (ers)

There's no doubt China is a hungry dragon. Still, the US link to it's short term prosperity is important and any consumption out past 2010 is going to rely on the US not imploading. Let's hope.

Let's also hope China don't find too many resources in the own back yard and keep buying from Australia....
 

Thx, but thing is Demand is only one side of the equation

Eg. what do u think will happen to the Zinc Price if:

"China's Zinc Demand to Increase 56% by 2010, Antaike Forecasts, but World Supply likely increase 60% by 2010"

thx

MS
 
LME Warehouse Stocks 24 Aug 2006
Close In Out +/- On Warrant Cancelled
Copper 124325 1775 100 +1675 113625 10700
Zinc 178450 0 725 -725 137550 40900


Getting close to coppers levels
 

wow a ****load of zinc got cancelled! nice

thx

MS
 
michael_selway said:
Alot of Zinc was Sold overnight ie On Warrant decreased by about 8000 tonnes

thx

MS
MS
You are a worry!
The zinc was sold a long time ago.
What has happened is that warrants have been exercised - ie cancelled - and buyers have chosen to take delivery of the metal.
Accordingly, that metal will be moved out of the various warehouses in days/weeks to come, and land in the laps of typical consumers.
I am still waiting for MS to respond to his "fake buying" claim, made a few days ago: Willbe interested to understand where/how this happens.
 
LME Warehouse Stocks 29 Aug 2006
Close In Out +/- On Warrant Cancelled

Zinc 176700 350 1800 -1450 136425 40275
 

Hi Red

Basically Nickel "ins" are frequent as you can see, unlike zinc



Put simply, if there are frequent "ins" why is there still alot of "cancellatons"?

Wouldnt it be wise to buy it from the "ins" before they enter LME as "ins", than by jacking up the price by buying the "Open", ie already at LME?

In other words, someone is trying to jacking up the price, but the outside underlying demand/supply is actually in surplus, since theres frequent "ins' atm

thx

MS
 
MS
You must get a grip on how the market works.
In a balanced market the LME plays little more than a "price setting" role for the global base metals community.
That's because the LME will soak up excess metal supply and store it until demand perks up.
Most metal (even today) continues to avoid the LME because it is shipped, typically, from producer to consumer on long term supply contracts.
By following the inventory totals of respective base metals on LME one can determine when supply or demand are waxing or waning. These fundamentals determine whether or not a metal's price will strengthen (via greater metal demand) or weaken (via excess metal supply).
Base metals have been experiencing strong demand in recent years, and their prices have risen markedly.
Respective markets determine a "balancing point", whereby inventory level changes turn into price pivot points via the difference between 3 month future and spot metal prices.
Let's look at copper as a recent example: Prior to its May selldown its backwardation stretched to well over $200/tonne (presently around $20), and its relative strength spun out to an incredible 88 points. Backwardation was doing its job in getting more metal onto inventory, to the point that supply side issues were being addressed and the market determined that copper prices had peaked for the time being. Copper continues to be in backwardation and apart from deliveries into Asian warehouses, there is very little available "free" metal elsewhere in the world.
Copper has had lots of "ins" since May, and only slightly less "cancellations" because the supply/demand equation is fractionally favouring "supply".
Nickel has been different in that the equation has favoured "demand".
Zinc is in a separate league, in that flows in to LME warehouses are infrequent, but usually huge (by comparison with other metal percentage movements). "Outside" activity has been robust throughout this year, and for this reason I believe we are soon to see a huge upside movement in zinc's price: Markets will realise that there is no meaningful supply-side response and backwardations will become the metal's norm in order to rebalance the ledger.

MS, your point about buying nickel from the "ins" before they enter LME as "ins", is valid, but ignores the profit motive available via the market mechanism of backwardation. (It's valid as Oxiana is selling some of its copper cathode direct to nearby Asian markets at premium well above LME spot - but examples like this are not common.)
It is a very simple process for a seller to deliver to LME at spot: The location is known, delivery arrangements are straightforward, and the commerce is reliable.
Whereas for a consumer to pre-empt demand, and then find a producer willing to ship to them in the desired quantity, and at a premium acceptable to the seller, is relatively complex.
In times of tight demand LME warehouses provide a rational, reliable, well regulated basis for purchasing metals.
 
Rederob,

Thanks for your reply

It shows your knowledge on these matters and u are truly an asset to this forum

All the best
 
If you want to invest in zinc look no further than AIM resources this baby is set to soar, 26 percent increase yesterday, with volume skyorcketing to over 20 million today. This stock is way undervalued look out for it , it's a strong buy!
 
recon it will fall on monday...they usualy do....26% is too much for one day...wait then hit hit it again. IDNH.....I do not hold.
 
Fab said:
It won't be a good day for zinc today on the asx . Drop 5% overnight




http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/09/23/stories/2006092305381400.htm

thx

MS
 
want-cash said:
If you want to invest in zinc look no further than AIM resources this baby is set to soar, 26 percent increase yesterday, with volume skyorcketing to over 20 million today. This stock is way undervalued look out for it , it's a strong buy!

CBH new website have good regualr reports which not only talk about themselves, but others also!

http://cms.cbhresources.com.au/shops/cbhresources/catalogue/c8
http://cms.cbhresources.com.au//information/pdf/261006a.pdf





 
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...