Your latest trade based on T/A

[wavepicker]

Gday Wavepicker. I went short some today at average price of $27.65. Notice the HUGE volume today, the biggest all month. I think this is primed for a small retracement, back to around $24. Notice the comparatively smaller volume on the way up since late Sep. Big resistance may (and probably already has) arise in this gap refill level, which also happens to coincide with the 61.8% retracement level (see earlier posted chart). I like the longer term prospects of BNB, but I feel it has run the course over the short term.

hello lachlan,

Good luck with your trade, I think this must be getting close, not 100% sure it is there just yet but I do have a fib turn date today (28th Sep) plus or minus one day, so you might be in luck with this one!!. Hopefully the market is plays ball with our thoughts!! Although I consider this a short, I didn't short this today as I am looking at both JBM and STO to short instead in preference, looking to position next week

PS I have attached my take on TAH, I know it differs somewhat from what you have posted, but just another perspective

Cheers

 

[Nick Radge]

trishan9390,

Here are some freebies on the theory:

Elliott Wave Int

Elliott Wave Basics

I do it in real time without hindsight but it's not free.
www.thechartist.com.au

Plenty of good books as well. You can't go past Prechter for theory. Do a wikipedia search or go to www.elliottwave.com as I think they have some book bundle deals. Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading is a great book for practical application as is Fibonacci & Applications for Traders by Robert Fischer. Sounds hard, but is well worth the read.

Of course you have Wavepicker and Mags (where is the old boy?) here who are both very well versed in it and always offer a thought provoking view.

Enjoy your journey.

 

[wavepicker]

Mags (where is the old boy?)

Hello Nick,

Mag has relocated to the land of Uncle Sam. It's been pretty hectic for him settling in, but I am sure we will hear from him in good time.

Cheers

 

[soso]

Hello Nick,

Mag has relocated to the land of Uncle Sam. It's been pretty hectic for him settling in, but I am sure we will hear from him in good time.

Cheers

I miss his musings, the only reason I'm in this forum. Hope to hear from him soon

 

[trishan9390]

So if I understand this correctly, the chart I have attached shows signs of an impulse wave and if it is indeed an impulse wave, jumping on board now would be a wise thing with targets above $13.40?

 

[wavepicker]

So if I understand this correctly, the chart I have attached shows signs of an impulse wave and if it is indeed an impulse wave, jumping on board now would be a wise thing with targets above $13.40?

Trishan,

The Three Rules of Elliott(For five wave Impulse waves):-

- Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1
- Wave 3 is never the shortest wave
- Wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1

Follow these rules and you and you will be doing something that quite a few practioners are not doing correctly!


The Three Guidelines Of Elliott(For five wave impulse waves)

-The three-wave correction following an impulse usually terminates within the price territory of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree

-If wave 2 is sharp and steep, wave 4 is usually a sideways correction, and vice versa

-The wave most likely to extend is wave 3; the next most likely is wave 5.

Hope this helps

 

[Nick Radge]

the only reason I'm in this forum. Hope to hear from him soon

Best you get a life then soso. Thats what we get with our first post...?..please.

Waves, I'll send you a PM.

Trishan,
No. Take a look at those pages. Take your time. There is no hurry. Opportunities are for ever available. Take the time to learn the craft. Listen to what waves says. Read. Read. Read. Cheap. Cheap. Cheap. Once you have read, start taking alook at the charts. Find the impulses. Find the corrections. Your goal is to recognize the shape of the corrections so you can trade the nest impulse. That is where the easy money is made.

 

[BentRod]

Nice trade Waves.

Thanks for posting.

 

[buggalug]

Hey Guys,

Can anyone let me know if I'm on the right track here with PBL?

Cheers

 

[Nick Radge]

buggalug,
You have 7 waves off the highs. A 7-wave pattern is a sign of a double zigzag correction or an extended impulse. The fac that the move off the lows has surpassed old resistance levels points to the double zig zag scenario. Annotated as:

abc-x-abc

You will also see other clues. The absolute low is an island reversal and is accompanied with strong bullish volume. There is a high chance its a significant low. Looking for non-correlated evidence such as this helps the count. True theorists would dispel other data such as this, but I feel it really makes a big difference.


We're probably impulsing higher now but it would pay to look at the next highest degree pattern to be sure.

 

[GreatPig]

Here's a recent successful one (so far) of mine. Analysis has nothing to do with EW though.

Bought it on the combination of the island reversal and apparent forming of an inverted H&S pattern, although that wasn't complete at the time (purchase date shown by blue triangle at bottom). Also, the island gap was right around the 38.2% Fib level of the previous rise, which coincided with a significant support/resistance level from late 2005 & early 2006.

The first image has the details of the trade along the top (identity info removed). The gain figure allows for entry brokerage only. I usually buy more than $10K but that was all the funds I had left at the time.

Cheers,
GP

 

[GreatPig]

And just for some balance, one a while ago that wasn't so hot :

Bought on what looked like another move up from a small consolidation period as part of a longer uptrend. Little did I know it was to be the very peak day of the trend

Looks kinda interesting again now though. A sort-of inverted H&S pattern with the shoulders on the 50% Fib level and the head down to the 61.8% level. Is currently around the neckline again (if you draw an approximate horizontal neckline) just above the 38.2% Fib level, so will be interesting to see if it will break up or not. Probably a bad H&S example, but interesting none-the-less.

Cheers,
GP

 

[happytrader]

Entered BSL on Thursday arvo because I thought it was cheap enough to take a punt on. The stock has been trading within a $10.00 - $12.00 range. Went exdividend on 24 September. Weekly pattern looks promising. I'm happy to exit at $11.00.

Cheers
Happytrader

 

[wavepicker]

Great trades GP, thanks for sharing your analysis.

It doesn't matter what form of TA you use, if one applies themselves and has a decent game plan, some excellent trades are possible.


Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Entered BSL on Thursday arvo because I thought it was cheap enough to take a punt on. The stock has been trading within a $10.00 - $12.00 range. Went exdividend on 24 September. Weekly pattern looks promising. I'm happy to exit at $11.00.Cheers
Happytrader

Interesting wording Happytrader

GP, Wave, others, thanks for the posts.

 

[GreatPig]

Thanks Wavepicker.

Another I entered a few days ago based on the break above the recent downward trend line and also what looks like another inverted H&S pattern. Only up a little at the moment, and with the size moves this one can make in one day, anything could still happen.

Consolidating (I hope) above the recent support level, with the peak three days ago being around the H&S target price. Hoping of course that it can keep going to new highs, but keeping a close eye on it.

Probably should have entered a couple of days earlier, but didn't have any funds available then.

Cheers,
GP

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Thanks Wavepicker.

Another I entered a few days ago based on the break above the recent downward trend line and also what looks like another inverted H&S pattern. Only up a little at the moment, and with the size moves this one can make in one day, anything could still happen.

Consolidating (I hope) above the recent support level, with the peak three days ago being around the H&S target price. Hoping of course that it can keep going to new highs, but keeping a close eye on it.

Probably should have entered a couple of days earlier, but didn't have any funds available then.

Cheers,
GP

GP,
Sorry, but what software are you using?

 

[GreatPig]

AmiBroker.

Cheers,
GP

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

AmiBroker.

Cheers,
GP

Thanks
Snake

 

[buggalug]

buggalug,
You have 7 waves off the highs. A 7-wave pattern is a sign of a double zigzag correction or an extended impulse. The fac that the move off the lows has surpassed old resistance levels points to the double zig zag scenario. Annotated as:

abc-x-abc

You will also see other clues. The absolute low is an island reversal and is accompanied with strong bullish volume. There is a high chance its a significant low. Looking for non-correlated evidence such as this helps the count. True theorists would dispel other data such as this, but I feel it really makes a big difference.


We're probably impulsing higher now but it would pay to look at the next highest degree pattern to be sure.

Thanks Nick, I'll try and get my head around that I've got a couple of q's before I sign up to your service, i'll pm them.

I'm curious on everyones take on AWB, fell alot during 2006, recovered to 50% of the high around July and is now sitting a what looks to be a strong support level.