Your latest trade based on T/A

[Lachlan6]

Placed a trade today, long TTS. Looking for a bounce back soonish back to the first target of $4.60. Very nice Elliott Wave formation on the way down here for TTS. This is a typical A,B,C three wave corrective pattern, with Wave C showing the typical 5 wave movement. The two support lines I drew in, correspond to both previous resistance turned support, and the full 1.618x wave extension of Wave A to form Wave C.

The target is the 50% retracement level from the all time highs to recent lows which also corresponds to a strong level of resistance. Possibly entered the trade too soon, as may procrastinate for a while, however the high R/R Ratio (my stop is $3.82), suggested to me this is a valid trade.

 

[Nick Radge]

ahhh...very good Lachlan6.

 

[Lachlan6]

Cheers Nick. Learning from the master :

 

[Lachlan6]

Gday Nick. I am looking for a quick short trade with the market at these levels. A few have popped up and I will post two. Mind you, I don't expect a really deep retracement from the market when it does eventually come back, so these trades will probably be in and out very quickly.

(BNB)- Weak close today amidst a strong market overall. Sellers may be coming in whilst that 50% level from June highs to August lows is quite close to recent price action. The five wave movement down rule stipulates a consequent three wave movement up, which may have finished here for the time being. Again, would look to put my stop above the 50% level and exit at around $24.80.

(AWC)- I have not been too convinced by the rally up since mid August for AWC, and today was a weak close on big volume. Furthermore, it coinicided with the gap refill level of resistance and the 61.8% retracement level from July highs to August lows. May be putting in large A,B,C corrective pattern at the moment, however I favour a short term downward bias, with a possible stop at $7.48.

 

[Lachlan6]

Missed out on your Short recommendation on ALL last night. This was a prime example of a short in this current market. Hope you got on board. Cheers, Lachie.

 

[Porper]

Placed a trade today, long TTS. Looking for a bounce back soonish back to the first target of $4.60. Very nice Elliott Wave formation on the way down here for TTS. This is a typical A,B,C three wave corrective pattern, with Wave C showing the typical 5 wave movement. The two support lines I drew in, correspond to both previous resistance turned support, and the full 1.618x wave extension of Wave A to form Wave C.

The target is the 50% retracement level from the all time highs to recent lows which also corresponds to a strong level of resistance. Possibly entered the trade too soon, as may procrastinate for a while, however the high R/R Ratio (my stop is $3.82), suggested to me this is a valid trade.

Yes, well done Lachlan, excellent looking chart & count.
Just to add my 2c, there are 2 potential reversal set ups, 1 where you have drawn in, which seems highly probable given the stopping volume right on target.

If prices were to drift lower there is a high probability of support around 3.50, the next possible reversal set up zone.

 

[Nick Radge]

AWC is interesting. The squeeze higher and failure today has created what is termed a throwover. These appear on a breach of an ending diagonal or wedge pattern. The measured move is back t the start of the wedge at $6.59. Obviously if the next impulse take hold we could travel lower.

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[It's Snake Pliskin]

Nice posts Lachlan!
This could be a good thread if more had a crack at it.

 

[glenn_r]

I've been a bit of a lurker on this forum, but here is a possible triple bottom reversal with volume setup with a good R/R on JHX I found this morning doing one of my daily scans.

 

[Lachlan6]

Yes, I also like what you have seen Glenn. I went long as a CFD trade on JHX yesterday at $7.12. Like the short term prospects here for a bounce. Movement down, three wave corrective pattern, with Wave C possibly conforming to the typical five wave movement. What I really like about the potential for a major bottom here though, is the big divergence in the MACD coupled with the triple bottom coinciding with this major level of support. In other words a very tight stop can be placed for a high R/R trade, with the first target at around $8.60, being the 50% level of the Feb highs to August lows. This level is also around a level of what should be strong resistance.

I have also posted a weekly chart just to show the strong likelihood of a bounce, due to both the horizontal support and uptrending support lines converging at these levels.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Yes, this seems like a nice try here. Small risk with heaps of reward potential.
I will take a trade at market.

 

[MattB]

Last trade taken was Thursday 13th September on BNB.

Hey Wavepicker... I also picked up some BNB recently, but my train of thought was long term, whereas your TA seems to predict it will drop a fair bit soon?

The reasoning behind my entry was its long term (5/10yr) uptrend, evident in charts... and the fact that, considering it's uptrend, it is currently near the bottom of the channel and moving up again.
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=bnb

I'm completely ignorant to how EW works... and, as I'm working with BNB's chart history, I would have thought that we'd be seeing $30 in perhaps a month? Still learning heaps, and keen to hear your input on this!

Cheers,
Matt

 

[Lachlan6]

Another one I entered today was (TAH), based on a few pieces of evidence. I really like the look of both the daily and weekly on this one, as it looks primed for a bounce. The weekly shows a really strong level of support at around $15 for the last three years! This cannot be ignored in my opinion, and the latest decline may be a case of panic overselling due to Equine Influenza.

The daily has displayed a definite 5 wave decline, which was arrested with the bullish engulfing pattern late last month. Since the stock has effectively gone sideways and has possibly put in a small a,b,c correction (not shown). Very nice volume relationship, rising all week with huge volume today, so far. However the one thing to really stand out again was the very nice divergence in the MACD, with price. I put my stop at $14.81 for a very nice possible R/R trade.

Expect a possible three wave advance with the first target market at $17.20.

 

[Lachlan6]

Apologies. The first three wave count on the daily TAH chart was meant to look like this.

 

[glenn_r]

I found a couple of flags to wave tomorrow when the Mighty Cats thump Port Power

 

[Dutchy3]

AUN ... posted under the thread of the same name.

Does anyone have some inside knowledge as to why this jumped 10+% today?. Perhaps if anyone is kind enough to reply the response might be posted under the AUN thread rather later the flow in this one

 

[wavepicker]

Last trade taken was Thursday 13th September on BNB.

A great example of a high probability EW setup with good RR.

BNB impulsed down in a clear 5 wave structure from July 16th. Since then has moved up in what appears a wave A(red wave A), and moved into a consolidation which appears to be a wave B contracting triangle(blue abcde). Trade was initiated as follows:-

-Vehicle: BNB $ 26 Oct call option @ $0.55
-Price of underlying @ $23.22(apex of contracting triangle wave e)
-Target price: $28+(measuredmove, based on height of triangle added to blue wave e)
-Exit Strategy:Take Partial profits @ $26+(assuming it get's there, leave
remainder till primary target reached.
-Contingency Strategy: Close Position Fully if price action falls under blue wave c low of $22.95 at trade will be invalidated(only 27c risk) OR market fails to move in desired direction within 4 trading days


Time cycles indicate that red wave C has a probability of completing in the first week of October which is a significant period for broader market to complete a major cycle, at which point will look to heavily short the market.

Cheers

Target almost reached, positioned closed out today fully. Option price $2.32.

have taken a new long position in NWS today at $26.71. Almost idendital setup as BNB. NWS has completed a 5 wave decline from Feb 2007 High of $32.40. Has traced out what appears to be a green wave A up and is now completing a wave B contracting triangle. If this works out the C wave that follows should push prices to a target of $28.50 no later than 18/10/07, but it could be as early as 5/10/07. A break below $26.26( green Wave B triangle blue wave c low) will invalidate this setup. (Only $0.45 risk).

Have an important trend change time window starting today through to end of next week for the market, so will be looking to go short the market late next week

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Hey Wavepicker... I also picked up some BNB recently, but my train of thought was long term, whereas your TA seems to predict it will drop a fair bit soon?

The reasoning behind my entry was its long term (5/10yr) uptrend, evident in charts... and the fact that, considering it's uptrend, it is currently near the bottom of the channel and moving up again.
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=bnb

I'm completely ignorant to how EW works... and, as I'm working with BNB's chart history, I would have thought that we'd be seeing $30 in perhaps a month? Still learning heaps, and keen to hear your input on this!

Cheers,
Matt

Hello Matt,

My near term target has been reached. If the pattern plays out OK, I am expecting lower prices into mid November or at least a re test of the lows to set up nicely for a long term bullish position in BNB, which I hope to take up a position in.

Cheers

 

[Lachlan6]

Gday Wavepicker. I went short some today at average price of $27.65. Notice the HUGE volume today, the biggest all month. I think this is primed for a small retracement, back to around $24. Notice the comparatively smaller volume on the way up since late Sep. Big resistance may (and probably already has) arise in this gap refill level, which also happens to coincide with the 61.8% retracement level (see earlier posted chart). I like the longer term prospects of BNB, but I feel it has run the course over the short term.

 

[trishan9390]

Hi Guys,
Just getting into trading and learning as many chart patterns as possible. I was wondering if you could make a good suggestion for a book/website that I could read up on waver patterns etc.

Thanks.