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You Can Predict Any Market - Jeff Greenblatt

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Waves.

This is one of the things that bothers me with Cycles and Confluence of Numbers.
You end up with a chart which has Fib Numbers,Lucas Numbers,Fib Doubles,(why not Lucas doubles?) birthdays,and Star signs.
The chart ends up full of Squares/Diamonds and levels and more degrees than Marble Bar.
Many converge in an area.
Plotted from Pivot highs Pivot lows,Minor swing lows and highs---next door!!!
Price invariably hits some of these,cant help it there is so many of them.

Once hit its as easy as to find a reason why---to construct a compelling arguement.

BUT TO PRACTICALLY employ this analysis currently (As I'm still reading) in a meaningful way so as to trade with it just doesnt cut it---not yet anyway!
I'm proving/disproving on almost a daily basis.
 
tech/a said:
Waves.

This is one of the things that bothers me with Cycles and Confluence of Numbers.
You end up with a chart which has Fib Numbers,Lucas Numbers,Fib Doubles,(why not Lucas doubles?) birthdays,and Star signs.
The chart ends up full of Squares/Diamonds and levels and more degrees than Marble Bar.
Many converge in an area.
Plotted from Pivot highs Pivot lows,Minor swing lows and highs---next door!!!
Price invariably hits some of these,cant help it there is so many of them.

Once hit its as easy as to find a reason why---to construct a compelling arguement.

BUT TO PRACTICALLY employ this analysis currently (As I'm still reading) in a meaningful way so as to trade with it just doesnt cut it---not yet anyway!
I'm proving/disproving on almost a daily basis.
Click to expand...


True, Our job should be to narrow down the possibilities to prove/disprove our analysis, NOT create more possibilities as this adds to confusion.

As such, I use a combo of fixed/dynamic cycles as EW as a GUIDE only, if then we have SIMPLE fib relationshsips which gel with the our analysis then great. If there appears not be any there no point trying to force the issue as you say with a mountain of possibilies.

Generally speaking when using fibs, I rely and look for mainly the 0.618 relationship clusters and discard the rest.

Cheers
 
Have now managed to get a fair way into the book.

When ever I read a tech book I'm always considering in my own mind.
(1) Application--Can I apply that being shown in my own trading.
(2) Simplicity---In application.
(3) Value---will it be of practical value.

While there is much in this book that provokes thought--for me it doesn't satisfy the 3 principles above. Greenblatt himself makes it clear that application in real time is difficult--the end result not clear until the completion.

Unfortunately the number of "Possible" Fib and lucas counts are virtually endless.
Adding Ratio's/Square roots/Derivative roots and 144 Harmonic Vibration numbers.---whew!
As are the points at which you can start your counts. Major and minor pivot highs and lows---and if thats not clear Greenblatt explains---you'll find better counts in lower time frames.

Going forward then you will be able to label your chart with 10s of "Points" of interest. You'll no doubt have clusters from time to time appearing.
While if you can be bothered or indeed have the time to count (Would be practical if trading say up to 30 stocks,10 would be better and any more wouldnt be practical.) there could be some map of direction if not critical points.

All like any analysis have to be proven and whilst in hindsite they look neat and tidy with all the 10s of other possibilities and clusters removed,in real life you end up "trying" to make a count fit.---easy to do once completed.

Sure you'll get hits and sure some will be excellent---but you'll get many that fail.

Greenblatt himself during an explaination of a chart noted that a turn in a chart DIDNT fit a count --BUT not to be daunted--- found the date as 10/8 8th day of tenth month---excellent---just put the 8 and 10 together at 108 and bang thats a Multiple of 144 harmonic (How I dont know) Page 38.

However there are some excellent "hints" I keep finding.
In Greenblatts words---which I find somewhat contradictory seeing his book is so detailed (Meaning point one only).

(1) The whole idea is not to be committed so much to the exact pattern at hand as it is to have a general idea of what we are dealing with--I certainly agree.
(2) Wave "B" s create the sentiment of the PRIOR trend and as such are normally short and powerful.
(3) Triangle waves or legs will have .618 or 1.618 ratios in them more often than not.
(4) When wave 4s over lap wave 1s this is a tip that this is a corrective move.
(5) Impulse waves are 5s 9s and 13s (13s rare)
Corrective legs are 3s 7s and 11s
(6) High to low and low to high cycles generally conform to Fib or lucas (I have observed this myself---Just look at the last rally of the ASX200 almost pefectly a 50% retracement!)
(7) Understand that waves rotate--high to high low to low.
(8) The very first failure of a move after a prolonged trend will often be the best opportunity.
(9) Buy pullbacks and sell spikes ONLY if you believe they are leading into a wave 3 or wave C.
(10) The best part of good moves tend to appear between 30-40 bars from a pivot (Major)---this is the meat. After 89 bars the likely hood of continuation tends to deminish.We start seeing divergences.
(11) In Bull markets the LOW to LOW cycle will dominate and in bear cycles the HIGH to HIGH.
(12) In choppy markets scale down your timeframe in trending markets open it up.

I'll keep reading and reporting. Helps gel the text.Gives me a use for those Yellow Highlights!
 
Thanks tech, your views/comments are very much appreciated.

Had a feeling that with this type of application one would end up with a myriad of clusters points. For me that is not the issue, but rather the SIGNIFICENCE of a cluster. How does one tell a high probability cluster from a dud? That the dilemma!

As you say the possibilities are endless.
 
but rather the SIGNIFICENCE of a cluster. How does one tell a high probability cluster from a dud? That the dilemma!
Click to expand...

Waves

I think a very important observation.
Perhaps a clue can be found in Background and Position.
IE where it falls--clusters.
Rather than attempting to explain or find every single turn its the significant turns in all we are interested in---they wont fall at EVERY high or low..
Once identified taking advantage of patterns within the move in the direction of the move.
Further recognising that move to be a high probability extended move.

Right now we have a long term corrective move going on in the index as such these prolonged moves are going to be hard/rare (Being probably more descriptive) to find wave 3s and C's on the long side.
Perhaps wave 3s and C's on the short should be the focus particularly as this move is likely a completion of a larger pattern C in the index.

But knowing this we are more likely to find them in the shorter time frames.
As such this perhaps is where we need to be rather than looking at longer frames. Until of course they alter.
Mind you long term short has been wise.

I'll add more as I find it.
Good to have some feedback from someone who has been looking at this for a lot longer than I.
 
tech/a said:
Waves

I think a very important observation.
Perhaps a clue can be found in Background and Position.
IE where it falls--clusters.
Rather than attempting to explain or find every single turn its the significant turns in all we are interested in---they wont fall at EVERY high or low..
Once identified taking advantage of patterns within the move in the direction of the move.
Further recognising that move to be a high probability extended move.

Right now we have a long term corrective move going on in the index as such these prolonged moves are going to be hard/rare (Being probably more descriptive) to find wave 3s and C's on the long side.
Perhaps wave 3s and C's on the short should be the focus particularly as this move is likely a completion of a larger pattern C in the index.

But knowing this we are more likely to find them in the shorter time frames.
As such this perhaps is where we need to be rather than looking at longer frames. Until of course they alter.
Mind you long term short has been wise.

I'll add more as I find it.
Good to have some feedback from someone who has been looking at this for a lot longer than I.
Click to expand...


Thanks tech, I may have been doing this for a while, but as you know learning never stops in this arena!

Greenblatts book along with other studies adds to ones arsenal. Having said that we are all looking for a simple strategy whereby we can trade the market. Unfortuntely that one strategy may not always be enough to keep you on the right side but that is not a problem as long as you know it's limitations.
Rather than adopt one strategy to trade I cover much ground and group an number of simplistic stategies and have now come to know which is the best tool to use for me in a given market situation.

EW can give one an edge over conventional analsyis in that it's an objective strategy and as you say it's simple rules and guidelines can help one prove/disprove a probable scenario. It does this by analysis of price level , pattern, and wave count.

The one element that is lacking is TIME, which IMO is half of the equation and that is why I have asked for your opinion thus far on Greenblatts work.

Your comments to date have been much appreciated

Cheers
 
‘Subjective trading analysis’ is the perception or point of view, which
is influenced by a reoccurring bias or experience. It is unique only to
the individual trading analyst, which is more often than not illusory to
the majority. Sadly, this is where most trading methodologies reside.

‘Objective trading analysis’ on the other hand is based on
observable phenomena; that is presented factually for all to see. It’s not
the perception or thought of something occurring, but the
independent probability of something likely to occur. Objective
Analysis can’t exist if both Time and Price are separated and are
completely independent of one another; both need to be part of the
same trading model.

The trader Trading.....


Personally I know where Elliot Wave resides, and it's certainly not an Objective trading model
 
(Knowing little about EW, except what I have picked up here and here and currently looking at "Dynamic Trader" which is EW based and does include chapter(s) on time analysis. (Even Nick R., in one monthly charts on the XAO mentioned wave 4 being twice as long as wave 2 - indicating a flat market over next few years.) That being the case, doesn't EW include time analysis. and if so, what part of this is not objective?

And if I wrong on EW regarding time, can some EW person indicate what componts does cover (if more than just price)?

And it the market were to follow certain rules re price and time, then this would be the holy grail we are all looking for. As such, it is game of probabilities?

Forever the student/learner,
Tim
 

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