You Can Predict Any Market - Jeff Greenblatt

ajoz said:

I had a quick read through the preview of Chapter 6 and it certainly looks quite interesting.

Link to preview chapter of the book:
"http://www.fibonacciman.com/pdf/Greenblatt_PreviewChapter062707.pdf"

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tech/a said:

Recieved this edition only last night after waiting for new stock.

That word PREDICT is on the front cover and throughout the book.
That condition of TIME is the key ingredient in "Prediction".

Ive "been" (not yet convinced but impressed so far) a great believer that technical analysis is about proving or disproving analysis infact thats true for Fundamental as well.

Time to me has been that elusive component that I have thought impossible to analyse.

But some here---Waves,---Moggie when he was around were and are into the aspect of time. Although Ive not seen prediction mentioned.

The keys to this are Elliott,Fibonacci and LUCAS a less known french mathamatician who developed a set of numbers very similar to fib,
volume and position in context and then an application in time.

Those in black I know very little about but I know the combination of all the rest is very powerful.

If it is possible to combine time that can only be --well amazing.

Infact doing what I have considered for years to be IMPOSSIBLE.

Want the book at $200 a crack its here. In Melbourne
http://www.educatedinvestor.com.au/

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professor_frink said:

Have you read it all yet tech? I'd be curious to hear your full thoughts on it when you have. He did a 2 part series in the local trading rag, Your trading Edge a little while ago that I had read. Can't say that I was impressed enough to even consider spending $200 on his book. It seemed to be a case of throwing up all of the lucas and fib numbers he could find on multiple timeframes, and by the time you've factored in +/- 1 bar on all of timeframes to all of the numbers, it would have been nearly impossible for the market not to turn at one of them.

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“Ive "been" (not yet convinced but impressed so far) a great believer that technical analysis is about proving or disproving analysis”

and

“Analysis is simply a setup which will either be proven or not”

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tech/a said:

Ah Prof a man of my very own convictions. My major argument with the "predictive" argument of Gann.
No I havent yet read it all only a couple of chapters. What I have read confirms that which I now use and concur with him in that it is consistent.
I havent gone far enough to critique. But will.I only get a few spare minutes to read.

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tech/a said:

I've never seen analysis as predictive---dont know that I will.
I think it was motorway who once wrote that he was happy to anticipate analysis.Thats where I fit I doubt even with good arguement that i'll ever view analysis any other way,as to do so is being finite,something I see as dangerous in trading!
My analysis gives me clues to where and when I can anticipate a buy and sell position in the market,it will then be proven correct or not.
What I do when the NOT comes to fruition will ultimately govern how profitable my trading will be when the analysis IS proven.

Click to expand...

tech/a said:

Recieved this edition only last night after waiting for new stock.

That word PREDICT is on the front cover and throughout the book.
That condition of TIME is the key ingredient in "Prediction".

Ive "been" (not yet convinced but impressed so far) a great believer that technical analysis is about proving or disproving analysis infact thats true for Fundamental as well.

Time to me has been that elusive component that I have thought impossible to analyse.

But some here---Waves,---Moggie when he was around were and are into the aspect of time. Although Ive not seen prediction mentioned.

The keys to this are Elliott,Fibonacci and LUCAS a less known french mathamatician who developed a set of numbers very similar to fib,
volume and position in context and then an application in time.

Those in black I know very little about but I know the combination of all the rest is very powerful.

If it is possible to combine time that can only be --well amazing.

Infact doing what I have considered for years to be IMPOSSIBLE.

Want the book at $200 a crack its here. In Melbourne
http://www.educatedinvestor.com.au/

Click to expand...

professor_frink said:

It seemed to be a case of throwing up all of the lucas and fib numbers he could find on multiple timeframes, and by the time you've factored in +/- 1 bar on all of timeframes to all of the numbers, it would have been nearly impossible for the market not to turn at one of them.

Click to expand...

tech/a said:

Recieved this edition only last night after waiting for new stock.

That word PREDICT is on the front cover and throughout the book.
That condition of TIME is the key ingredient in "Prediction".

Ive "been" (not yet convinced but impressed so far) a great believer that technical analysis is about proving or disproving analysis infact thats true for Fundamental as well.

Time to me has been that elusive component that I have thought impossible to analyse.

But some here---Waves,---Moggie when he was around were and are into the aspect of time. Although Ive not seen prediction mentioned.

The keys to this are Elliott,Fibonacci and LUCAS a less known french mathamatician who developed a set of numbers very similar to fib,
volume and position in context and then an application in time.

Those in black I know very little about but I know the combination of all the rest is very powerful.

If it is possible to combine time that can only be --well amazing.

Infact doing what I have considered for years to be IMPOSSIBLE.

Want the book at $200 a crack its here. In Melbourne
http://www.educatedinvestor.com.au/

Click to expand...

tech/a said:

Of all the forms of analysis available--Elliott in my view is the leader in a technical sense. Waves has focused my resolve on completing the task of Reading Greenblatt. I thought then as I do so reporting findings and my own experiences and opinions on my use and findings relative to Elliott in general and where appropriate Greenblatt.

When reading any publication of interest I arm myself with a YELLOW Highlighter
Passages sentences and key words in context I highlight.
While this doesn't contribute to the re sale value of a book when reviewing you can re read a book very quickly. Another trick I use is YELLOW postal notes labelled with key issues--tabbing pages for very quick reference.

Geenblatt like myself categorises exponents as ACADEMICS and practical applicants. The question often asked is just how expert do I need to be in Elliott for it to be of value to my trading.
To me its a matter of practical application---how can I apply it and how can I apply it without ambiguity.

All Patterns whether impulsive or corrective have their place and its the corrective patterns which cause much confusion. Particularly wave 4.
and ofcourse capitulation of Wave 5's.

Its important to understand the structure of corrective moves if for no other reason but to avoid being caught up in long term corrective moves which appear to have no structure. Being able to label them perfectly in my view is of less or no value to practical application of analysis to your trading---you just simply wouldnt get involved in such a move---well I wouldnt.

For those who want specifics on structures buy one of these books.
(1) Dynamic Trading By Robert Miner
(2) This one.

As I move forward it will be beneficial to become familiar with Fibonacci and Lucas Number sequences. Whether you place credence on them or not.
My intent here is to simply bullet point Greenblatts points of interest which may or may not be specific to his findings. Much I present has been found by others than Greenblatt but important aspects to the practitioner.

Bullet points

* 2 Basic patterns Impulsive and Corrective.
* Impulsive are 5 wave sequences with the following RULES
(1) Wave 3 is NEVER the shortest.
(2) Wave 2 never retraces more than 99% of wave 1
(3) Wave 4 never overlaps the territory of wave 1
* Wave 3 may NOT necessarily be the LONGEST wave.
* If when counting waves you note one of the rules does NOT conform then there is something else happening so re veiw your count.

* Greenblatt has found the Wave 4 can and does often SLIGHTLY over lap into wave 1 territory so common sences should apply--a point or 2 he believes to be acceptable.
* Impulsive waves tend to follow alternation. A complex wave 2 will normally be followed by a simple wave 4 correction OR a long wave 1 will often bring a short wave 5. If a 5 wave set sees an extension of Wave 3 the next set may well see an extension in wave 5

* Corrective sequences.
*Sharp corrections are 5-3-5 patterns
* You can recognise these as corrective moves as the violate the overlap rule.
* They are very choppy.
* Corrective moves are characterised by an average lower volume than the prevailing trend. (So corrections in a bear market seeing LOW VOLUME are highly likely to fail---this is a corrective sign! within the overall bear).
* Flat corrections are 3-3-5
* All legs tend to be equal length
* "C" waves are the most violent (Just watch the XJO if it now corrects lower!!).
*Triangles appear in 4 th wave impulse moves and "B" waves in corrective moves (You can see the importance of knowing "WHERE" you are in the life of a trade!)
* 4 Th waves are difficult to count.
* Triangles are the next to last move in a pattern.
* Most triangles will complete in the correct Fib or Lucas time bars! Specific interest to you Waves?
* Structure patterns should have a "proper" look in other words structured.
* Diagonal triangles that usually form a completion of a wave 5 long or short side often overlap wave 4 and 1

Hope this is of value and I will post up more as I go further on.
Comments and input from others most welcome.

One last thing
While it may seem daunting with the feeling of how on earth can I remember all this----practice at labelling and looking at charts over the years will have you seeing these structures and patterns WITHOUT thinking. Do you now think everytime you hop in your car (Well of course we all do) but generally its automatic---over time Elliott will become the same.

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wavepicker said:

Hello Tech,

Have been considering this one for a while . I have heard much positive news around on the web, but these days you just don't know till buy!!

Thanks very much for your opinion on this text, looks l might look into it.
I also like to use fib twins, i.e 3+3=6, 5+5=10, 8+8=16.... etc Also Lucas no's derived from Fib no additions i.e 5+2=7,3+8=11, 13+5=18, 21+8=29....etc,
Another book I was considering is:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/007149815X...iveASIN=007149815X&adid=06WAE6CESZ4EERVMN571&

by Carolan Boroden.

Both her and Greenblatt feature Fibs quite heavily in their analysis, but Greenblatt quite heavily into EW as well from your decription.

Cheers

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