Yogi Questions

Can't we (you, me, anybody) create a short-medium term automatic system that can trade both long and short?

I ask because I find Elliott Wave/Time Cycles Analysis to be quite time consuming...surely an automatic system that is short term enuff to avoid the drawdown issue that you described, that can trade both long and short is superior to spending lots of time counting and re-counting waves or cycles or star-gazing.

theasxgorilla said:

Can't we (you, me, anybody) create a short-medium term automatic system that can trade both long and short?

I ask because I find Elliott Wave/Time Cycles Analysis to be quite time consuming...surely an automatic system that is short term enuff to avoid the drawdown issue that you described, that can trade both long and short is superior to spending lots of time counting and re-counting waves or cycles or star-gazing.

Click to expand...

People should use what they are comfortable with which delivers a consistent profit over time. It’s no good using something that you prefer if it doesn’t generate profits in the long run. It’s also difficult to use a system that you don’t like, but acceptable if it generates consistent profits, but it’s better to do this than make losses with something you do like. Wouldn’t you agree?

So, this is the trade off in terms of time and effort and longer term results and knowledge. Mechanical systems can be built or acquired, and probably take a fraction of the time (“techtrader” and systems of its ilk excepted – these are major projects) to develop as opposed to becoming proficient in technical analysis, EW, Time cycles, and other T/A schools. Even in these schools there are significant divisions and styles…

The market is highly competitive, and the majority either lose or are marginally successful. It is a minority that make the significant consistent profits (at least this is the orthodox view, but hard to really verify).

I believe that most mechanical systems are designed for people that either can’t or won’t develop T/A skills (or in tech’s case he uses both in appropriate circumstances) , and/or are unable to deal with the psychology, and need a rigid set of rules to deliver a positive expectancy and take the emotion out.

To survive in the market you need an edge. You need something that delivers a consistent positive expectancy over the long term. The problem is that if you accept that human intuition if harnessed correctly should outperform computer based systems (the “computer between your ears” I would argue used correctly should outperform mechanical systems), then you can see why a significant proportion of mechanical traders fail.

I think many use mechanical systems because the time and effort to become proficient in an effective T/A style is prohibitive. In some cases some people are more suited to mechanical systems, and can make consistent profits. For some Intuitive/discretionary approaches are not suitable.

What I would argue though is that computers can’t “see the market”. A human who dedicates themselves to studying it can develop an edge through experience and observation, trialling different areas of knowledge, and forging a style that both suits them, and is consistently profitable.

I would argue that to really outperform the market in the long run you must develop an edge, and being able to “see the market” and be “in tune” with the market is vital. A lot depends on your objective, time frame, position size, and return targets – how aggressive you will position for example.

So no, in my judgement, having a solid T/A basis should outperform most mechanical approaches.


Regards


Magdoran

tech/a said:

Yogi,cant you spell? Youve quoted that from the PEN P-E-N thread

Not trading PNN--P-N-N

This is not a correction pattern I would trade---. In the longer term its a wave 2 of 5 waves. This ABC pattern may not be finished with yet on a larger time frame. Quite possibly we may have seen the low for the corrective move. Nothing certain just yet.

Picking Announcements---now thats pretty damned good have to admit.

Will keep watching thanks for your reply---I know your a busy bear.

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Huh ... ???

Whoa, whoa ..... there was no mention of PEN in this
thread and the quote used was your very own words
..... from THIS thread !~!

You exited PNN. at a loss ... yes???

Anyway, no point get into discussions about red herrings.

Fact remains, your EW analysis for PNN did NOT indicate
a positive move, around this time, period ..... !~!

Further to that, it just happens to be so, that the
astroanalysis for PEN and PNN, are the SAME ...

happy days

yogi

Yogi I have not traded PNN since I exited at the last high. At this point dont intend to.

All Ive done is posted some Elliot Analysis on PNN and its been a competition ever since.

Like your analysis its simply another form of analysis which I present worts and all, just as you do.

You'll get it right/Ill get it right/youll get it wrong /I'll get it wrong.

So??

Ah Found what your talking about.

As an example.
I posted it behind Radges private wall of learning.(Chartist Members area)

Today one of my confirming indicators took me out of a trade I felt was a possible good long trade which took off yesterday with a great burst of volume and range.It looked like a good wave 5 entry possibility.

Today Seller supply overwhelmed buyers and it tanked. I didnt make a profit but I was able to get out at my buy.It lost a further 5 ticks---and would have been a few $$s had I not had the analysis capability of understanding what was happening.

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You presumed it was PNN----and it didnt take off the day before did it.

I am sure there are certain facets of Yogis analysis that at times have merit as he has demontrated. At other times not so much merit.

Yogi has said previously in this and other threads that his Gann Astro methods and Gann methods in general are far superior compared to other methods such as EW.
From my point of view it is madness to make such comments.
I know of Gann traders that make large consistant profits annually. I also know of EW practioners and of others who practice other TA that do likewise. I also have known of others who have gone bust using each of these methods.

Yogi. if you have looked at EW and "DONT GET IT" then thats fair enough, stick to you Gann. I have personally looked at Gann, don't get it or ever will and simply disagree with many facts of it because it conflicts with the way I see the market.

Just coming up with some "potential dates" where something might happen is not a sound trading routine if used in isolation IMO.

On the other hand something like what Mag does whereby the pattern of the trend and trading from a bar chart and volume underpins other forms of analysis such as Gann, EW or even any other indicators.

Bottom line "TRADE WHAT YOU SEE- NOT WHAT YOU EXPECT OR WANT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THE STARS SAY SO"

yogi-in-oz said:

Huh ... ???

Whoa, whoa ..... there was no mention of PEN in this
thread and the quote used was your very own words
..... from THIS thread !~!

You exited PNN. at a loss ... yes???

Anyway, no point get into discussions about red herrings.

Fact remains, your EW analysis for PNN did NOT indicate
a positive move, around this time, period ..... !~!

Further to that, it just happens to be so, that the
astroanalysis for PEN and PNN, are the SAME ...

happy days

yogi

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Geez Yogi,


Tech picked the ABC short pretty well I would say… The potential long position is a corollary of this analysis if you were so inclined. It is fundamental to EW theory that an ABC indicates the end of a corrective move and a resumption in the trend, doesn’t it? At least this is my reading of Prechter.

But going long at this point is in my view more risky than taking the short… but if I was game I would do it with this kind of pattern. If this stock was optionable I would have played it exactly that way. I would have bailed if long much earlier nearer the top if I’d been trading the swings, and probably have reversed my position, or at least hedged it (if it was optionable) – probably ratio-diagonal-back spread, or even short calls deeper in the money if really bearish, maybe 1:1).

I still maintain Yogi that you would benefit from studying EW. It can do things some of both your style and mine in Gann cannot do… McLaren for instance embraces EW, and specifically Prechter. He even quotes him, and often dedicates a section to wave structure… If he thinks it’s relevant and useful, so do I.

Have you read Prechter’s work on Elliott?


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. Why this angst with Elliott Wave theory??? Gann and Elliott were contemporaries, and I believe Gann may have actually drawn from Elliott. I think they are compatible disciplines, not rivals. I just don’t get where you’re coming from?

theasxgorilla said:

Can't we (you, me, anybody) create a short-medium term automatic system that can trade both long and short?

I ask because I find Elliott Wave/Time Cycles Analysis to be quite time consuming...surely an automatic system that is short term enuff to avoid the drawdown issue that you described, that can trade both long and short is superior to spending lots of time counting and re-counting waves or cycles or star-gazing.

Click to expand...

G.

Yes quite so. However I cant find software that will test or help me design some signals I wish to take.EG try making up a formula for a trendline break or a triangle or any Elliot retracement values. Or an exit for a projected price point which as you know could be dynamic dependant on price action.So im urrently limited by either my capabilities and or software capabilities. My son's the Physist not me!!

If I have a chart (Normally smalls which are subject to outlier moves) I'm interested in Ill put a count on it. There it stays only to be altered if I find its in correct or price action dictates a change.Then if it comes up on an alert there it is for further analysis.

Hi folks,

Mag ... in fact, i AM familiar with EW principles,
after all they are not exactly rocket science .....

..... and there's no question, that there was a short
in PNN from the end of January, that was discussed,
but how many EWavers predicted a change of trend,
around 06022007 ..... exactly, NONE !~!

So, where is your wave count now ... ???

ABC in a the 2nd retracement of an impulse wave, blah, blah

..... it just seems a whole lot easier to just specify A DATE,
where one cycle will end and a new one begins ... yes???

Whatever spins your wheels ... we're not here to argue,
anymore ... we'll just leave that for the EW "experts"
to argue amongst themselves.

have a great day

yogi

Magdoran said:

McLaren for instance embraces EW, and specifically Prechter. He even quotes him, and often dedicates a section to wave structure… If he thinks it’s relevant and useful, so do I.

Click to expand...

Who is McLaren?

yogi-in-oz said:

Hi folks,

Mag ... in fact, i AM familiar with EW principles,
after all they are not exactly rocket science .....

..... and there's no question, that there was a short
in PNN from the end of January, that was discussed,
but how many EWavers predicted a change of trend,
around 06022007 ..... exactly, NONE !~!

So, where is your wave count now ... ???

ABC in a the 2nd retracement of an impulse wave, blah, blah

..... it just seems a whole lot easier to just specify A DATE,
where one cycle will end and a new one begins ... yes???

Whatever spins your wheels ... we're not here to argue,
anymore ... we'll just leave that for the EW "experts"
to argue amongst themselves.

have a great day

yogi

Click to expand...

One hit today, great Yogi. How many hits have you had with all these dates and stocks you post here. Very very few, I have been keeping tabs. BTW did you trade your prediction today???????

yogi-in-oz said:

Hi folks,

Mag ... in fact, i AM familiar with EW principles,
after all they are not exactly rocket science .....

..... and there's no question, that there was a short
in PNN from the end of January, that was discussed,
but how many EWavers predicted a change of trend,
around 06022007 ..... exactly, NONE !~!

So, where is your wave count now ... ???

ABC in a the 2nd retracement of an impulse wave, blah, blah

..... it just seems a whole lot easier to just specify A DATE,
where one cycle will end and a new one begins ... yes???

Whatever spins your wheels ... we're not here to argue,
anymore ... we'll just leave that for the EW "experts"
to argue amongst themselves.

have a great day

yogi

Click to expand...

Hello Yogi,


No, agreed, EW isn’t rocket science, but neither is a lot of Gann either at its core. What is hard is learning the intricacies, and being able to effectively forecast and trade the forecasts profitably consistently…

The point I’d like to make is that someone like wavepicker has mastered EW to a high level, and can make some quite accurate estimations in certain conditions, without time points. This I believe to be true of your discipline too. I also use time to trade like you, hence I know all too well how beneficial this can be when used correctly – which is an art in itself. So, I fully appreciate the advantages of using time points.

What I don’t think you understand is the finer points of EW. I think you have glossed over this body of knowledge and discounted it prematurely. To be so dismissive of it, and people like Prechter seems like a gross miscalculation and underestimation to me.

Now the thing that I note with your dates is that many don’t come to fruition which is normal. Also, the way you convey your predictions is quite ambiguous. In the most recent case, you did not specify to go long, or enter short, just gave dates with a small commentary.

The challenge for you though is to give exact time and price points real time or before, or at worst immediately after entering a position, and then declaring the exit in advance or at the moment of exit (or immediately after). If you make a forecast for instance, combine prices with the dates, and instructions on where to enter and where to exit.

I’d like to see you put the price and time points on a chart (the bars in between are not required – just the entry time and price, and the exit time and price). Even better, pick each individual price movement of trend and counter trend with the high or low to the day in line with an exact price, nominating entry and hedge all the way up, and all the way down.

If you can do that I’d be impressed. Otherwise it is unclear how to use your time points, especially when nothing happens for some of them. I am not asking for you to reveal your methods, just provide a running commentary on a hypothetical trade as I did on the “Improving chart Analysis” thread.

What I suspect is that you can locate significant time points, but that you need the way the underlying trades into them to make judgements. I don’t believe in this case you would have traded PNN long just on time points alone. I suspect that your successful trades use T/A patterns at the core, don’t they?


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I think you are missing half the game...

theasxgorilla said:

Who is McLaren?

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Dear Gorilla,

Bill McLaren is a trader/educator originally from USA who now lives I think on the Gold Coast. He is passionate about Gann. I heard him speak at an ATAA meeting about 10 years ago. It wasn't a bad presentation.
Here is a link

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/

He seems to have aged better than me, in fact from his photo he appears to have had a significant retracement.

Garpal

He seems to have aged better than me, in fact from his photo he appears to have had a significant retracement.

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Good one Garpal. Question is, "is that a 38.2% or 61.8% retracement?"

Nick Radge said:

Good one Garpal. Question is, "is that a 38.2% or 61.8% retracement?"

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Actually he has aged quite well considering he is in his mid 60's. Others half his age have a 75% retracement hehe

I would have thought there was more interest in the Fib extension. Is 2.618 unreasonable? I guess not for the young'uns. I'll be happy with 1.27

Yogi.

Taking the predicted announcement buy you would now be long.

Where would the exit be? Next major bad news I suppose---you'd ignore minor?

tech/a said:

Yogi.

Taking the predicted announcement buy you would now be long.

Where would the exit be? Next major bad news I suppose---you'd ignore minor?

Click to expand...

Good idea, I second the motion. What say you Yogi?

Hi folks,

Mag ... you obviously did not read my earlier post, where
i explained ONE strategy on how the positive cycle could
have been used to confirm our other TA, to establish an
entry at a critical support level, on a forecast and positive
cycle date.

---

tech ... as previously detailed, the entry strategy was
triggered over the past couple of days ... next, stop loss
is set in today's gap ... giving up some profit is not as
painful as letting it turn into a loss ...

Some may even choose to just run with a "disaster stop"
at this stage ... that is, using a stop just above entry to
cover costs, giving the price plenty of room for an
an expected test of support, in the days ahead ... then
tightening it up, as the stock advances towards the
next negative time target ... we all know, that there's
MANY ways it can be done .....

..... between now and 22022007, there should be other
minor fluctuations, including a test of support at today's
gap-up, no doubt.

Anticipated aspects should keep market sentiment mostly
positive until early-March, where we will be watching for
confirmation from our regular TA to take profits and even
look for another shorting opportunity, particularly going
into the negative cycle 05032007 ...

Then again, by combining our regular TA, with our
forecast time cycles, we will likely be alert for another
change to the long side, in the latter half of March 2007,
as per time cycles, already posted .....

..... and so it goes on.

No, we don't get them all right, but by sustaining a good
win/loss ratio, it makes the losers a lot less painful !~!

Will be posting less here, due to moving residence and an
increasing workload this semester ... so good luck all ...

happy days

yogi

P.S. ... for trading purposes, PNN and PEN time cycles
are identical, too.

Although charts not based on PNN -- but BSL

They are showing the conflict I find in mixing various methods.


1: AGET EW count has both major and intermediate at Wave 5 high

2: A reliable ATR system in MetaStock has BSL still in a bullish move

3: Patterns could surgest a bull flag, a up trending line and a Triangle breakout above previouse highs

Cheers

Thanks Yogi.

So basically monitor the progress with technical trailing stops---whatever the trader decides to set the stops with and trade in the direction of the next major announcement.


So significant and negative is early March. If not taken out by a trailing stop would you then close before the announcement and go SHORT?

(This could coincide with the top of a wave "B" in the correction which I feel will occur.Then down to a possibly lower wave 3)