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Yes we have no oil

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty
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IF this is true it make our Oil and gas look good as well as LNC shares????
A lot was deleted due to the amount of text.
Saudi Arabians, you've gotta love 'em. First, 15 out of 19 hijackers on Sept. 11 were Saudis, but Saudi Arabia had NOTHING to do with it, or so we're told. They love us!
Now Saudi Arabia is about to drop another bombshell on us, and this one will make Sept. 11 look like small potatoes.
Sept. 11 shut the markets down for a few days. When the next crisis hits, you'll wish the markets would shut down so you wouldn't have to watch the carnage.
if some well-informed experts are right, Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are a fraction of what they've been telling us.
Why does it matter? Because everyone has believed for decades that Saudi Arabia's oil supply is virtually unlimited. That's what the Saudis have said over and over again for more than 30 years.
If an oil shortage threatens to cause a recession or a market crash, we can count on the Saudis to come through. So people think.
But in a private briefing, one of America's top oil experts told President George Bush exactly what I'm telling you. In fact, this same man was a consultant to the secretive task force that drew up Vice President Dick Cheney's energy plan in 2001.
In other words, the guy is a heavy hitter who knows the energy business.
He warned Bush that the Saudis don't have anything near the oil reserves they claim. They already pump less oil than most "experts" think, and here's the real kicker...
Saudi oil production is about to drop sharply. And it will keep going down for good.
Other experts have analyzed the numbers and come to the same conclusions. If the charges are true ”” and I believe they are ”” we could be facing...

They say the Saudis could quickly double their oil production from the current level if they wanted to. And given a few years, they think the Saudis could produce four times as much oil as they do now.
Iintelligence agencies and the conventional "experts" are dead wrong. The oil isn't there.
Why should you pay attention to what I think? Let me give you a good reason, and then you decide. My name is Byron King, and I'm the co-editor of Outstanding Investments.
Why 2007 was a year of crisis
The oil and gas shortages we've seen lately are nothing compared with what's on the way.
When the truth comes out, it will send shock waves through the world economy. Everyone will find out too late ”” when gasoline soars to $5 or $6 or more per gallon. I'm writing today to give you a heads-up.
The next few pages show you how to protect yourself and get rich off energy sources and technologies the world will scramble to buy at any price.
Don't be surprised if certain commodities and resource stocks soar three, five or even 10 times over.
The coal revolution is here. It's always been cheap and plentiful. Now it's going to be clean, and soon it will even be liquid. It's also going to cause a massive shift in world power. Two American companies will profit big time.
Americans used to run Aramco, the huge oil company that manages the Saudi fields. But in 1979, the Saudis booted us out and took over.

no one knows for sure how much oil they've got in the ground, or how much they produce each year or how much they could produce if they wanted to push it to the max.

It's all secret. Experts try to figure out how much oil the Saudis sell by monitoring tanker traffic in and out of the world's ports. That's how little we know for sure.

.

Their figures for proven reserves kept going up and up and up ”” even though they didn't find any major new oil fields!

In 1979, the Saudis adjusted proven reserves upward by 50 billion barrels. Then eight years after that, their proven reserves magically grew by another 100 billion barrels.

Their estimated reserves increased by 150% in nine years ”” to a total of 260 billion barrels. And they didn't find a single major new oil field!

And here's the funniest thing of all...

For the last 17 years, they've claimed they own 260 billion barrels of proven oil in the ground. The figure never goes down, even though they pumped out 46 billion barrels during that period.

Let me see...260 minus 46 equals 260. Saudi math!

Based on these bogus figures, the Saudis claim they can produce as much oil as the world wants for the next 50 years. As recently as 2004, they claimed their reserve estimates are actually conservative.

That's why most of the world's governments and intelligence services believe the Saudis could pump 20 million barrels of oil a day if they wanted to. Trouble is, we've got no proof except their say-so.

If it were true, we wouldn't have a thing to worry about. But it's not.

It's horse hockey

Before Aramco's American owners were shown the door in 1979, they told Congress that Saudi Arabia had proven reserves of 110 billion barrels. There have been no major new discoveries, so 110 billion barrels was probably about right. And since then, about half of that has been used up.

So why do the Saudis insist everything is just fine and they have 260 billion barrels of reserves?

One reason is they wanted to discourage non-OPEC nations from looking for more oil or switching to alternatives.

It was a devious plan, and it worked perfectly.

But that wasn't the only reason the Saudis lied about their reserves. They did it because everyone does it! Everyone in OPEC, that is.

The Biggest Lie of All: OPEC's Imaginary Oil

In the 1980s, OPEC's claim of total reserves magically leaped from 353 to 643 billion barrels without a single major discovery. Industry experts call it the quota war.

You see, OPEC had to limit how much oil each member could sell, because prices were too low. The quotas were based on... each member's oil reserves!

That's right: The amount of oil OPEC would let a member pump depended on how much that member had in the ground. So it paid for OPEC members to claim the biggest reserves they could. And that's what they did.

The Saudis alone jacked up their estimate by about 100 billion. Kuwait added 50% to its reserves in one year, 1985. Venezuela doubled its reserves in 1987. Iraq and Iran doubled their estimates, too.

What's more, OPEC members did like the Saudis and kept their reserve estimates the same year after year, as if no oil were being pumped out and sold.

Everyone claimed to have a bottomless well.

Now, if you're like me, you prefer to base your financial decisions on the real world, not on a fantasy.

Let's look at how much oil there really is...

In the 1970s, when Western managers were still in charge, they believed for a time that Saudi output could reach 20 million barrels a day. But by the time the Americans lost control in 1979, they figured the peak would be 12 million.

They also predicted that peak production would last only 15–20 years. 1979 plus 20 is 1999. We're past the peak, if these men were right. But we already know they were too optimistic.

The truth is that Saudi production never got to 12 million. "In all probability, output peaked in 1981 at an unsustainable level of about 10.5 million barrels per day," according to Matthew R. Simmons, a leading oil industry authority.

And yet the lies go on...

In 2004, Saudi officials claimed they boosted production to 9.5 million barrels per day and maintained that level for five months.

It's almost sure they were lying. The International Energy Agency is the group that keeps an eye on these things for the developed, oil-importing countries. The IEA could find no sign the Saudis were selling more oil.

As far as anyone can tell, they pump only around 5 million barrels a day, and that's all they've pumped for years.


In spite of being lied to at least once, the IEA, the U.S. Department of Energy and other forecasters believe the Saudi claims. ALL their projections of our energy future ALWAYS assume the Saudis could produce 15–20 million barrels a day.

The lies have worked. Not only do Western politicians believe them, but so do many oil industry experts and investors with huge amounts of money at stake. They've been had.

You'll get the full story in a FREE special investment report called Crude Awakening: How to Survive the Total Global Energy Crunch. It's just one of four free special reports with my 10 best recommendations.

The three picks in Crude Awakening are already moving up. In fact, one recommendation is up 75% since I recommended it. I'm telling readers to hang onto all three of them, because the profits have just begun.

We went through three recessions from 1973–1983.
Care for a repeat?

Our whole economy is at risk. Your investments are at risk. Your retirement plans are at risk.

America has been so prosperous the last couple of decades, a lot of people forget what the energy crisis of the '70s was like. Let me remind you: The price of a barrel of oil shot up 400%. Long lines formed at gas stations practically overnight.

Folks had to pay four times as much for a gallon of gas, and there came a week when one out of every five gas stations in the United States had no gas to sell at any price.

The U.S. had three major recessions within 10 years after the first oil crisis in 1973. And those recessions were deep, with double-digit unemployment, double-digit interest rates and double-digit inflation.

Think 10–12% unemployment.

Think 15–18% mortgage rates.

Got the picture? That was the ‘70s. Not fun. My take is that a similar crisis will rock the nation before we solve our problem with clean coal, liquefied natural gas, oil from tar sands, high-mileage cars and safe nuclear plants. More than likely, the politicians will quarrel for years before they do what has to be done.
 
hi glen,
these "sensational news" stories abound in the stocks advice bulletin lead ups.
The pitch is usually; here is the horror story and join our club for $500 and we will tell you which stocks to buy.
Having said that there have been a number of more credible reports over recent years that indicate the Saudis do not have the oil reserves they say.
How would we really know how bad?, I don't know.
 
KSA, God Bless em'.

I don't believe this entirely, I think once the oil leaves Saudia, it can be measured easily. It is just horse crap if you believe that it is not.

Peak oil is a fact, I do not deny it but I think we have a while to go before we reach that. May be another 30-40 years.
 
Wouldn't they want us to think there is less oil around, less supply= higher price?

They know all the easy oil has been found, so i doubt they are worried about huge new fields being discovered and reducing their "monopoly".
 
Higher price = less demand as well and also has negative impact on the economy generally so people drive less. We saw people dramatically cut down their driving when it went above $125/barrell.

I would expect if prices stayed above that level, then the demand would slowly come back, but at the same time the incentive for alternates would increase rapidly one would think.

----------

So there's a way to turn coal into gas now ? hmmm, I'm going to have to look into this. I've heard bits and pieces about it. I suppose on one hand it would require energy input, but one the other, there's less energy required to extract gas compared to rock.

I remember seeing a documentary about oil in Saudi once, I remember them saying that they have one huge oil field which is already below 50%.

I sold 25% of my WPL holding today too. Maybe I should have held.
I can't see oil getting any lower for awhile yet, at least until we start seeing alternates in large use which is at least 5 years off. (its a guess). Things could change quickly if a viable electric car that was cheap was available.
 
I have been searching for long term oil warrants but cant seem to find anyone that does them.....

Oil will eventually boom in value the only question is when?
 
There was also an article on tail pipes some company has designed a filter system to use on Diesel cars which cuts down pollution and as Diesel cars are more efficient than any other car including the Pirus.
No if we can sort out this recession there could be some good loot to be made.
One is saying we are strong here the next Dr. Doom...
 
Peak oil is a fact, I do not deny it but I think we have a while to go before we reach that. May be another 30-40 years.
I politely point out that light sweet crude has already peaked some years ago.

In terms of total liquids (crude, natural gas liquids, tar sands, natural bitumen etc) production has been essentially flat for the past 3.5 years despite a price surge and drilling boom. All that extra drilling and we added about 0.4% to global production - sounds very much like imminent peaking to me.

As for the figures, here's how it's done to my understanding. "Reserves" is essentially "total economically recoverable oil discovered to date" and hence is a figure that by definition can never go down unless a previous error (however caused) is being corrected.

"Reserves" does not mean how much is left but you can calculate that figure quite simply. It's just "Reserves" minus "total production to date" which gives you the remaining recoverable amount. That's my understanding of it anyway.

As for the Saudi's, a large share of their total production (around half) comes from a single field (actually it's 10 fields, but that's a technicality that's normally overlooked). And within that field, much of the total production comes from the northern end which has the highest quality oil that flows most easily. Bottom line is that to my understanding the northern end of that field is substantially watered out and production has peaked. There's still plenty in the southern parts, but it will flow more slowly, at higher cost and is lower quality. Hence the Saudi's keep offering heavy crude the the market that nobody wants.

What most don't realise about Saudi is that if you look at a map of the country then practially all the oil production is concentrated in a very small area. The notion that the whole country sits atop a sea of oil is simply wrong. It's like saying that all of Australia is one giant city just because you only looked at one part, Sydney, and concluded that the rest of the country would be exactly the same. No it's not...

Worth noting that despite the recent high oil prices and a massive ramping up of their drilling efforts, Saudi's peak production was in 1980. At best, they might be sitting on some oil they've kept quiet about and not developed in any way but the overall picture, especially the drilling frenzy amidst DECLINING production, sounds awfully like they've got problems.
 
Comments please:
My name is Byron King, and I'm the co-editor of Outstanding Investments.

Blah blah blah . If you are co editor , why the hell is your grammar so bad in your original post. I have noted you as an idiot in my special notebook.
 
As for the figures, here's how it's done to my understanding (seriously, I did do a bit of work for one of the OPEC oil producers a few years ago). "Reserves" is essentially "total economically recoverable oil discovered to date" and hence is a figure that by definition can never go down unless a previous error (however caused) is being corrected.

The prediction of oil peak has been wrong for the last couple of decades. They just keep on pushing the goal post. But it is a matter of when, I agree, but that when is not as close as some doom sayers predict.

A part from this there are many other loopholes in this article and does not sound convincing to me.
 
Wouldn't they want us to think there is less oil around, less supply= higher price?

By overstating their available reserves, I presume they can increase the percentage of the OPEC allowance that they are entitled to.

They claim to have the largest reserves and are the largest producer so this would make sense. Trying to gain in the short term whilst oil is fashionable?
 
The prediction of oil peak has been wrong for the last couple of decades. They just keep on pushing the goal post. But it is a matter of when, I agree, but that when is not as close as some doom sayers predict.

A part from this there are many other loopholes in this article and does not sound convincing to me.
The supposed date for a peak in oil production from those who have done proper calculations has been "around the year 2000" since at least the mid-1950's. Given the inherent difficulty of predicting such and event and that it was looking forward half a century, I'd say the actual peak of light sweet crude in 2005 was near enough to being on target.

Agreed there are loopholes in the article though. The biggest one being that for unknown reasons it seems obsessed with "reserves" as though that was the biggest issue. It's extraction rate that really matters...

I'm genuinely interested in this 30-40 years argument and how you've worked that out though? Do you mean supply rising to meet business as usual demand for another 30 - 40 years? Or do you mean a lesser rise in supply with a peak in 30 - 40 years? There's a huge difference in the implications of those two scenarios as well as what would be required to make them happen. I assume there's heavy reliance on CTL to sustain production?
 
Blah blah blah . If you are co editor , why the hell is your grammar so bad in your original post. I have noted you as an idiot in my special notebook.
As Glenn posted "A lot was deleted due to the amount of text.", his trimming may have a bit to do with the lack of structure. It is probably more wise to use the actual content of the article to determine if Mr King is an idiot or not.

I for one believe what he is saying, as it is not a new argument. The inflation and steady state of the Saudi oil reserves has been an issue for quite a while. As Smurf's comments mirror my own thoughts on this subject I won't add anything else.
 
Here is the link if you want to read the whole thing it is a bit like those K -Tel add's that run for 45 minutes.

whiskey@agorafinancial.com

We can land a space craft on Mars using the power of a 1/4 watt light bulb and work out to the split second when it and where it will land, yet here we can't decide if we will have a recession or not, seems to me we have about 5 tier economy from the Miners down to the corner store and in 3 years tiem it will all come out where this all started from.
We are all sitting here watching our Lives tick away hoping some thing will happen to give us all some direction...HELP AAAARRRRRRGGGGHHHHHHH
 
As Glenn posted "A lot was deleted due to the amount of text.", his trimming may have a bit to do with the lack of structure. It is probably more wise to use the actual content of the article to determine if Mr King is an idiot or not.

I for one believe what he is saying, as it is not a new argument. The inflation and steady state of the Saudi oil reserves has been an issue for quite a while. As Smurf's comments mirror my own thoughts on this subject I won't add anything else.

If Glen48 wants to promote LNC , do it in the appropriate thread instead and with real facts about LNC , not articles that have been around for donkeys years. Have a good look at his/her very first sentence.
 
I'm genuinely interested in this 30-40 years argument and how you've worked that out though? Do you mean supply rising to meet business as usual demand for another 30 - 40 years? Or do you mean a lesser rise in supply with a peak in 30 - 40 years? There's a huge difference in the implications of those two scenarios as well as what would be required to make them happen. I assume there's heavy reliance on CTL to sustain production?
Read this article,

Oil aplenty, but investment needed

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23606984-5005200,00.html
The world, he said, had abundant oil reserves - sufficient to last 50 years and beyond.

"Limited capacity along the entire supply chain is the real source of current global supply tightness and represents the greatest threat to ensuring adequate energy to fuel future economic growth," Naimi said.


Here is another article emphasizing the limited capacity, and why Saudia might not want higher oil prices in near to medium term.
Why Are Saudis Approving Cheaper Oil?
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2006/gb20061004_128130.htm

Another good article.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06165/698172-28.stm



Most oil experts believe that peak oil might occur after 2030. You can find many references in these articles.

I think OPEC has now sensed an opportunity to keep the price of oil near $100, because they have a huge monopoly, and it is better for their own growth.

Light sweet oil might have peaked, but heavy oil is aplenty, and more efficient ways of extraction might be more useful and economical than ethonal based alternatives. Battery based alternatives comes with a huge environmental cost, and are not as cost effective right now.

Having said that, I think we are the only generation left to enjoy V8's and petrol based transport. After 40-50 years, the world will be a totally different place. I hope it will be a better place than NOW.


P.S. The thing witch no one talks about is the following. In a steady growth rate of say 7% of oil production. The production has to be doubled every 10years to keep that same growth rate. In addition, the most scariest part is that during that decade of doubling, the amount of oil consumed is more than the total amount consumed till the start of that decade! Scary stuff. Exponential growth is not sustainable on a finite planet.
 
As for the figures, here's how it's done to my understanding. "Reserves" is essentially "total economically recoverable oil discovered to date" and hence is a figure that by definition can never go down unless a previous error (however caused) is being corrected.

Thats a good definition of "reserves" but look a little closer -

"economically" means it has to be profitable for upstream operators to extract. Conditions change wildly over a few years - operating expenditures, returns required to pay back capital expenditures, royalties and taxes. If any of those change, the "reserves" can greatly change. Fields in the real world aren't abandoned because they're out of oil, they're abandoned because OpEXes and Taxes make the last xx% uneconomically viable to extract.

Changes in technology can greatly alter the equation for recoverable reserves - we're seeing new well completion techniques, better frac'ing and better EOR techniques compared to simple water drive.

As we invest more in technology and as oil prices increase, uneconomically viable resources suddenly become reserves.

You're very right about the correction factor though - geologists and reservoir engineers are making predictions on a fields areal extent and ultimately the reserves in that field on, very tiny bits of data. There is huge uncertainty about numbers when you're arriving at them by looking at a dozen core samples from a few wells and fuzzy seismic data. The error can be indeed be huge - billions of barrels - the oil doesn't disappear - it probably wasn't there in the first place or is too hard to extract.

Look at the graph below (its from the BP Statisical Review of World Energy, June 08, pg 26). Its a graph of "the time we have until current reserves run out" as a function of time. The horizontal axis shows the last 25 odd years and on the vertical, the years left.

The point is - reserves aren't fixed - they change due to so many factors. Back in 83 when the Chinese were still on bicycles and before Americans were driving SUVs - there was 60 years of oil left. 25 years later, there is still 60.1 years left despite consumption of 1 million bbl/day.

The latest estimates are that the world has 1 300 billion bbl of crude left. There's an estimated 1 500 billion bbl of crude equivalent oil shale in the US.
 

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Originally posted by Seasprite: "If Glen48 wants to promote LNC , do it in the appropriate thread instead and with real facts about LNC , not articles that have been around for donkeys years. Have a good look at his/her very first sentence."

Seasprite if you check the LNC thread you will see that Glen48 posted the following comment the other day.....

Originally Posted by Glen48 27th-October-2008, 07:01 PM
"I got out and loss some more... when oil gets to $30 a can there is not much hope for some one like LNC but I would look at buying back in again at 50C...maybe"

Unless Glen has bought back into LNC I would hardly think he is trying to ramp their SP.

I hope it works though:D because i own plenty and it needs ramping after dropping from $5 to a low of $1.88 in less than 2 weeks!!
 
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