Yen a 'safe' currency

[1080p]

Can anyone explain why the Yen is perceived as a 'safe' currency for panicked investors to flock to?

The Japanese seem to gorge themselves on US debt and export a lot of big ticket products which aren't exactly flying off the shelves these days...

 

[Indie]

It is a bonafide hard currency.

It is particularly good in a global deleveraging environment such as we are experiencing now because so many loans for foreign investments are taken out in the low interest Yen for foreign investment. In particular, vs higher yielding but riskier hard currencies like the AUD then Yen should do very well as leverage is unwound and AUD are sold off to pay down Yen loans. Yen is in very high demand right now for this reason more than anything IMO.

 

[arco]

Indie

My charts for Aud.Yen go back to 1983 and the current price is at a low only seen once before in that period (circa 2000/2001)

Do you feel that it can still go lower?

Usd.Yen currently @ 96.86 has a bit further to go to reach the low of 1995 (79.75). Chart period covered from 1978.

rgds - arco

 

[Indie]

Arco,

Many good judges including Marc Faber are saying the long term target is USD/YEN .80 so I tend to agree. All agree that the YEN is the cheapest hard currency around right now, by historical standards. However, it's all about timing. But I would expect to see .90 again before the end of the year. Which would mean AUD at sub .55 I would imagine. As long as equities continue to perform poorly, the YEN should continue to strengthen. I think this is a certainty. We may get a decent spike up in equities soon, but that to me is just another buying opportunity for YEN.

 

[MrBurns]

Arco,

Many good judges including Marc Faber are saying the long term target is USD/YEN .80 so I tend to agree. All agree that the YEN is the cheapest hard currency around right now, by historical standards. However, it's all about timing. But I would expect to see .90 again before the end of the year. Which would mean AUD at sub .55 I would imagine. As long as equities continue to perform poorly, the YEN should continue to strengthen. I think this is a certainty. We may get a decent spike up in equities soon, but that to me is just another buying opportunity for YEN.

How do you actually buy Yen ?
Just ask the bank to transfer a part of your funds held with them ????

 

[nunthewiser]

How do you actually buy Yen ?
Just ask the bank to transfer a part of your funds held with them ????

http://www.hsbc.com.au/1/2/personal/savings/multi-currency

earn intrest in account in any currency also

hope this helps

 

[MrBurns]

http://www.hsbc.com.au/1/2/personal/savings/multi-currency

earn intrest in account in any currency also

hope this helps

Yes thank you

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes thank you

covered under the govvy gurantee also UNSURE if so in foreighn currency

might pay to look into that bit

 

[MrBurns]

covered under the govvy gurantee also UNSURE if so in foreighn currency

might pay to look into that bit

Good thinking, I have to get the NAB to look at it, I'm with them.
Thanks again

 

[Naked shorts]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/17/2422037.htm

Japan says its economic situation will worsen further, after today's confirmation the nation is in a recession.

The world's second largest economy recorded a second quarter of economic contraction.

Japan has joined Germany and Italy on the list of major economies that are officially in recession or have experienced two quarters in a row of economic contraction.

Real GDP shrank by 0.1 per cent in the September quarter, worse than many forecasts which had anticipated a small rise.

Lower capital spending by companies and higher energy prices dragged down the figure, which marks the first recession since 2001.

Japan's Economy Minister says the downwards movement is set to continue, with falling exports and a stronger currency hitting local companies hard in recent weeks.

Economists say a recession in Japan will have an impact on the demand for Australian exports.

The senior strategist from TD Securities, Joshua Williamson, says a recession in Australia's biggest export destination will affect growth here.

"A recession in Japan will actually slow down our exports of goods to that country and if there's less goods going to Japan that will also weigh on our GDP growth figures," he said.

"So that also suggests GDP growth will be slowing not just from the domestic side but also from the external accounts as well."

This makes me a little bit unsure your bullishness nun, whats your take?

 

[nunthewiser]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/17/2422037.htm



This makes me a little bit unsure your bullishness nun, whats your take?

how long do u expect the usd to remain at this strength for ?

many of my reasons for me looking towards japan are dotted all over this forum . search my posts

ive spent all day explaining my thoughts in the chat facility allso

i am not just looking at currency


anyways...............

 

[Stormin_Norman]

It is a bonafide hard currency.

It is particularly good in a global deleveraging environment such as we are experiencing now because so many loans for foreign investments are taken out in the low interest Yen for foreign investment. In particular, vs higher yielding but riskier hard currencies like the AUD then Yen should do very well as leverage is unwound and AUD are sold off to pay down Yen loans. Yen is in very high demand right now for this reason more than anything IMO.

i agree. and since your post has proven to be correct.