XJO - Does anyone trade it?

[Joe Blow]

Where is the IGNORE button on this forum ???

Hi Rembrandt,

The easiest way to put someone on ignore is to simply view that person's profile, then click where it says 'Add XXX to your ignore list' (right above where it says 'Contact Info').

Alternatively, you can edit your ignore list in the miscellaneous options section of your UserCP: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/account/

 

[RichKid]

XJO index (ASX 200) staying well above that crucial support around 4080.

Very volatile trading recently but stuck in a range until Friday's break to close above 4160.

Anyone care to have a dabble at drawing some lines on that chart before one of us do? I thought there may have been a small rounding top initially but it didn't complete, confirmed by today's little run. I also thought it was a bearish flag (again until today's break above 4150). Wheret to now is the question. With the economy so fragile that the rate rise didn't eventuate (or due to govt pressure) and with the prospect of another rise very soon it doesn't look good overall, maybe it'll range.

Any views? Money Tree? I'm interested in your reasoning if you have time to post and any other views, I know Tech's away but maybe DTM or Rembrandt are watching the indices??

 

[money tree]

xjo has bounced 100 pts as expected. I would say the top is in. We may get a double top, which would make shorting easy......otherwise a pick in either direction at this point would be a gamble.

expect a range of 4000 - 4250 next 3 months.

 

[reichstag911]

I position trade the Spi and will post when i go short (soon i think) for a trade that may last days or weeks - depending on how long the trend lasts.

Cheers.

 

[RichKid]

xjo has bounced 100 pts as expected. I would say the top is in. We may get a double top, which would make shorting easy......otherwise a pick in either direction at this point would be a gamble.

expect a range of 4000 - 4250 next 3 months.

imo if it closes at 4075 or below twice then that's the reversal about to get into full swing- based on horizontal support on the chart. Very volatile recently, it's ranging allover the place, the US reporting season wont help either. Might be a time for gold buying. Eitheway the index is still not threatening the all time high, that's when things will get interesting...

 

[RichKid]

I position trade the Spi and will post when i go short (soon i think) for a trade that may last days or weeks - depending on how long the trend lasts.

Cheers.

Yep, keep us posted, I'm looking for a good entry to go short too, just the xjo for me.

 

[DTM]

Yep, keep us posted, I'm looking for a good entry to go short too, just the xjo for me.

I thought the XJO would drop today but looking at today's price movement, it looks like it will shoot up tomorrow morning.

 

[DTM]

Shoot up it did in the morning but didn't expect it to drop like that. I thought there would be some bounce but after today, I think the stock market won't reach its peak again. I'm definitely bearish now.

 

[RichKid]

A big drop, resources stocks appeared to have propped it up till now,with metal prices and oil all dropping it's been a near thing- currently around support. BHP failed to get the iron ore price hike it wanted that may have resulted in the mark down as well.

I was watching some of the xjo Citibank warrants- the market maker disappeared suddenly, no buyers no sellers. Very volatile. Let's see where it ends today- above 4080??

 

[RichKid]

Not a pretty sight for the bulls so far...

 

[rembrandt]

Hi RichKid ... those SHORT are nicely green.

The focus here and the US relates to critical support levels being broken as I have posted elsewhere ... the DOW and XJO have both failed 61.8% Fib support levels meaning without some postive stimulus a freefall can occur.

Updated chart looks like this ... dragged a Fib study over my R/S levels.

Chart look messy but important to confirm these critical levels ... Monday here could see a retesting of the 4025/4030 level ... finger on the trigger for those SHORT.

Cheers ...

 

[RichKid]

Hi RichKid ... those SHORT are nicely green.

The focus here and the US relates to critical support levels being broken as I have posted elsewhere ... the DOW and XJO have both failed 61.8% Fib support levels meaning without some postive stimulus a freefall can occur.

Updated chart looks like this ... dragged a Fib study over my R/S levels.

Chart look messy but important to confirm these critical levels ... Monday here could see a retesting of the 4025/4030 level ... finger on the trigger for those SHORT.

Cheers ...

Rembrandt,
That's a great chart, makes things clear. I'm waiting for a pullback but all depends on that crucial fib level you show, the metal and oil prices will tell the story imo. I had my eye on 4080/4075 (50%) as the first support level, that's now gone. H&S patterns despite the popularity in the public eye aren't always reliable, the fall in volume leading to this drop is what really had me interest. When a market panics no amount of logic will halt it, nice to have chart to watch it all unfold.

In fact I'm seeing oil at a crucial stage too so if it goes down to another higher bottom (below 50) then there go the woodsides, santoses and other big cap firms that have been holding up the XJO. BHP appears to be falling back to trend but may oscillate around it (which means could go much lower).

Keep us posted, I've noted a few Gann followers waiting for a confirmation for a fully fledged short too. Next major support imo is the previous high several hundred points below....a long way to fall!!!

 

[RichKid]

A nice goemetric pattern, lower lows, lower highs in a channel. Sign of some flattening out today but overall trend is still down, might see a pullback before long, metals and gold, oil all still down.

When will the bargain hunters or fund managers jump in to buy 'low'? Gapping at open with ease, dow and S&P may affect it again overnight. Even the 'defensive' stocks are taking a bit of a drubbing. If the instos start selling bigtime this'll get ugly.

 

[reichstag911]

I'm still short.

*The XJO dead cat (bounce) has decomposed and it's going south again soon*


Sorry forgot to post it here too : (

From: "reichstag911" <reichstag911@condi-is-a-dyke.com>
Date: Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:41 pm

Subject: TRADE: SPi shorted at 4045 Thurs 11 pm AEST
It's a position trade - it could be days/weeks til the trend finishes.

 

[RichKid]

I'm still short.

*The XJO dead cat (bounce) has decomposed and it's going south again soon*


Sorry forgot to post it here too : (

From: "reichstag911" <reichstag911@condi-is-a-dyke.com>
Date: Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:41 pm

Subject: TRADE: SPi shorted at 4045 Thurs 11 pm AEST
It's a position trade - it could be days/weeks til the trend finishes.

Hi Reichstag,
Good to hear from you, wondered where you'd gone, nice to see you doing well out of it!
Nice pattern going down, next point to note around 3900 imo, near uptrendline. Seems headed way lower but we'd better play it as it pans out. US markets aren't helping and metals still wavering. Maybe another very short spurt (spring) up for XJO before rejoining the decline. Now where were those fib levels...

 

[reichstag911]

G'day RichKid,

XJO my next target is 3940/50 and eventually 3478 - 3565 ??

BEAR PARTY TIME : P

 

[RichKid]

Hi folks,
Any other XJO/SPI/XAO traders stll actively shorting? Reich/DTM/Rembrandt? I'm looking for another xjo short entry this week, should be some further volatility with lots of economic news being released in the US and locally. Next leg of downturn due this week imo. Looks like its got a bit of short term upward momentum left in it. Upto the metal markets and the S&P now overnight.

 

[DTM]

I had the Fibonacci support level at 3966 and it bounced off at 3969 last Friday afternoon. It proceeded up after that. I had today pegged as an up day and it looks like it will continue on through tomorrow. The Banks held up the XJO last week otherwise it could have been a free fall. I think tomorrows announcement for Westpac will push the banks up further but the banks have to start retracing soon as they are in the top of their trading range. When the banks start retracing, I think it could really accelarate the XJO as most stocks seem downward inclined. That could be by the end of the week.

Just my opinion.

Oh, and I've got the XJO's next level of resistance at 4024 and I think it will smash through that tomorrow.

 

[rembrandt]

Hmmm ... chart shows possible new support level (S3) at 3965.

The LONG entry was triggered this morning ... next is retest of 61.8% Fib level at 4030.

Updated chart looks like this ...

Cheers ...

 

[RichKid]

Glad the hear the views folks. That 61.8 fib level is certainly looking very important again. It coincides with previous horizontal support and also has been confirmed by recent closes. Overall the 'big picture' imo is down but not knowing about EW patterns (not as much as I should) it's unclear where the short term move is- I still see another dramatic drop down as in the previous instances to get that bear pattern down towards the diagonal uptrend line around 3900. Two consecutive lower tops and unconvincing attempts to reverse. Need caution for short term plays. Multiyear trend is still up, just a matter of how quickly it'll end imo.
Agree about the banks DTM, can't see why anyone would hang onto them in the current environment. Dividends will only take you so far, panic can set in suddenly, this is the wrong time for them to be hitting new highs as they were one of the few sectors holding the bourse up. Oil is also dropping so the big oil/gas co's are not going to be flying for a few weeks imo as I expect oil to lag based on bearish pattern. Gold may also lag as it's stuck in a range.