XAO Technical Analysis

CanOz · 27 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CFD said:
Well you picked me in one!

Seems to me (being wise after the event) that only looking for and having long positions has a risk. The risk being that no matter how good the (in my case stock) selection, they can get over run by the market sediment. This risk would be reduced if one could identify a few short positions to hold with the longs (CFDs) in an overall up trending market.

Just one little question, how do I do that.

How do you pick high probibility longs?

If you looks for strength coming in, then look for weakness for a short....then look for a downside target with S&R or triangle targets etc.

Cheers,

Trembling Hand · 27 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CFD said:
Well you picked me in one!

This risk would be reduced if one could identify a few short positions to hold with the longs (CFDs) in an overall up trending market.

Just one little question, how do I do that.

Think the real issue is not should I short/hedge but the real problem with CFDs is value at risk. If you factor in a hit like today you would be a lot more cautious with leverage. Just stated a post about this in the derivatives forum.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7697

CanOz · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone think we and the rest of sane asia could be leading the US?

We bounce, they bounce...

Interesting to see what happens today when we continue to retrace into old support....will we continue the correction and then tonite the US too?

Cheers,

Trembling Hand · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
Anyone think we and the rest of sane asia could be leading the US?

We bounce, they bounce...

I have said it many times before, but I'm sick of arguing that one, so no comment from me, or is that a comment.

Ah stuff it I will comment. Watch out today the US rises are already baked in good chance to sell the open i reckon or at least not get to carried away on the US move.

CanOz · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
I have said it many times before, but I'm sick of arguing that one, so no comment from me, or is that a comment.

Ah stuff it I will comment. Watch out today the US rises are already baked in good chance to sell the open i reckon or at least not get to carried away on the US move.

Agree. I've got one last position to sell, hoping for a little strength to sell into....Then i'm all cash with a few shorts on my watch list ready and waiting.

Just looking at where the Aussie 200 spiked down, tempted to take a long into 6140-50...i think i'll just watch.

Cheers,

Trembling Hand · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone thinking that if we are down tomorrow they will Short? I would like one more hit down lower with some real panic selling. Thinking that will be the end of it, not that I ever get what I want to happen. Just wondering anyone thinking hear is the place to get Short?

>Apocalypto< · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Anyone thinking that if we are down tomorrow they will Short? I would like one more hit down lower with some real panic selling. Thinking that will be the end of it, not that I ever get what I want to happen. Just wondering anyone thinking hear is the place to get Short?

I am with you TH,

I am also thinking of short possibilities yet i hate to trade against the trend.

there was a quick 54 pts long to be made on the spi last night but if any had it, hope they got out of it quick this morning on open.

I will wait to see how the us futures shape up tonight around 9.30pm. to confirm the short.

I have no money in stocks or our lovely xjo right now . Have a long on the AUD from yesterday and a short on the EUR/GBP this morning.

if there is a nice negative influence yesterdays push and more might be released. will be watching where the next sell down stops looking for higher lows right now.

Trembling Hand · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

No I'm not thinking of shorting, in any case im a flipper 10 to 30 minutes in most trades. I was thinking that its would be hard to put on shorts here the chances of a bounce back rally would get even higher if we had one more whoosh lower. All in all unless your a long term player I'm not sure which way I would go this week. Anyone thinking something else?

CanOz · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
Agree. I've got one last position to sell, hoping for a little strength to sell into....Then i'm all cash with a few shorts on my watch list ready and waiting.

Just looking at where the Aussie 200 spiked down, tempted to take a long into 6140-50...i think i'll just watch.

Cheers,

6150 on the nose by my mini Aust 200 chart...and down she goes...

>Apocalypto< · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
6150 on the nose by my mini Aust 200 chart...and down she goes...

Can you take that long mate? it sure came back like a rocket. hope you did and had a nice little earner.

TH,

if that's the case whatever happens, happens. there are plenty of intraday shorts to chase on the spi today hade a nice drop and v reversal into close at the moment you must be rolling in it.

no shorts or longs for me still watching, looking for a long once this shows signs of progression.

notice the dow found support on its fib point which is also a support line wonder if it can hold it, if it can that will make it very significant on the short term.

TH, not trying to be a smart ass here but we followed the dow session last night to the tee. Dow opened up fell into negative then rallied into the close.

well u know how our day went. so at times we dont not follow the us lead or we do our own thing based on other influences.

but come on mate you really think the yank investors give two hoots what our little market does (unless invested).

CanOz · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
Can you take that long mate? it sure came back like a rocket. hope you did and had a nice little earner.

No TI, i'm still learning so happy to watch it for now....besides i had such a crappy connection that i had to use the original charts.

What are your critical levels on this? I see this 6150 level, and if we get through that then i think i had 6180 as the next resistance?

Cheers,

>Apocalypto< · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
No TI, i'm still learning so happy to watch it for now....besides i had such a crappy connection that i had to use the original charts.

What are your critical levels on this? I see this 6150 level, and if we get through that then i think i had 6180 as the next resistance?

Cheers,

yep nice target Can,

I have 6050 - 6150 on the ig xjo and possible resistance at 6180 - 6200 if the support is a little out please dont come at me with abuse as its straight out of the memory no chart in front of me at present.

currently I am not in a rush to be back long, I can't say yet, that this has found any feet. I am looking for the next test to show higher low or confirmed support down the line.

Can make paper trades on the xjo see how u go. (its damn cheaper right now as well!)

good on u.......

CanOz · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
yep nice target Can,

I have 6050 - 6150 on the ig xjo and possible resistance at 6180 - 6200 if the support is a little out please dont come at me with abuse as its straight out of the memory no chart in front of me at present.

currently I am not in a rush to be back long, I can't say yet, that this has found any feet. I am looking for the next test to show higher low or confirmed support down the line.

Can make paper trades on the xjo see how u go. (its damn cheaper right now as well!)

good on u.......

Yeah, i'm just looking to see where the next leg down might start really. I was thinking that this is really just a retracement before a larger move down and i thought we might have seen the end of it today, but until i see the night session and the how the US goes before it opens i'll watch and wait...and then watch some more!

Cheers,

wayneL · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
TH, not trying to be a smart ass here but we followed the dow session last night to the tee. Dow opened up fell into negative then rallied into the close.

well u know how our day went. so at times we dont not follow the us lead or we do our own thing based on other influences.

but come on mate you really think the yank investors give two hoots what our little market does (unless invested).

Exactly!

They couldn't give a %^$. Japan, HK, Frankfurt, London, yes. But ASX?

It's like, AS who?

Sean K · 31 July 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Exactly!

They couldn't give a %^$. Japan, HK, Frankfurt, London, yes. But ASX?

It's like, AS who?

We rarely get a mention on CNBC US version, CNN US or even Asia version, or BBC business news.

wayneL · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
We rarely get a mention on CNBC US version, CNN US or even Asia version, or BBC business news.

In the UK they don't even know if we have a market at all... and are not interested.

tech/a · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Time to evaluate where we are.

nomore4s · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Time to evaluate where we are.

Will be interesting to see if we follow the Dow or the UK and Germany today.

theasxgorilla · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Will be interesting to see if we follow the Dow or the UK and Germany today.

Or neither, with a fence-sit day!

Sean K · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
Or neither, with a fence-sit day!

I'd be happy with that. It would allow me to put some more shorts on. The bear is waking up in me.

XAO Technical Analysis

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Can be found on the bid

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Can be found on the bid

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Can be found on the bid

20.03.2012

Can be found on the bid

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

20.03.2012

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

20.03.2012

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

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VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

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