XAO Technical Analysis

MR. · 7 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Here is something I posted on my blog a while ago. It is an outlook I still feel has merit.

Congrats on becoming a mod there, always been helpful ......

The range might even be higher than your 1400. Everyone has a computer at their finger tips now days news is traded quickly, the slot machines of the home.

nunthewiser · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

MR. said:
How can BHP now go up 5.3%? Extended your stop didn’t you? Hell nun, seems almost like you’ve been set up. ****, you should’ve known better than to put your faith in god!
The man deserves a badge!

It appears to me all the arm chair punters have come out in force with vivid memories of continued gains and they’re not going to be left behind.
Are we surprised?

Will BHP shares fall? Yes, along with greater falls from all other commodity suppliers. It’s not if.....

yes extebded stop to 3620 as outer limit 3600 will probably see me out , i re-evaluated my chart for the widening band and willing to wear a larger loss because of it ....so be it........

i dont deserve any badges as this latest entry taught me a few manners about respecting strength and overjoyed buying and if i use the force next time i will be a perfect trader like others here

re continued gains ........blessem i say

of course BHP shares will fall i got divine intervention working for me

amen

nunthewiser · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

personally thinks nomore4s will be a good moderator at least he got a sense of humour

MR. · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
yes extebded stop to 3620 as outer limit 3600 will probably see me out , i re-evaluated my chart for the widening band and willing to wear a larger loss because of it ....so be it........

Oops,...... and the US stumbles a bit. Not the financials surely!.......

Justa putin some polish on da badge for ya.......

nomore4s · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

MR. said:
Congrats on becoming a mod there, always been helpful ......

nunthewiser said:
personally thinks nomore4s will be a good moderator at least he got a sense of humour

Thanks.

It's good someone appreciates my sense of humour because my other half doesn't:

The range might even be higher than your 1400. Everyone has a computer at their finger tips now days news is traded quickly, the slot machines of the home.

Maybe, but it I think it will be more around the 1000 point range if it does play out like that.

MrBurns · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

No point getting too excited about this rally when you look at the chart for the last 2 years -

Nyden · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

MrBurns said:
No point getting too excited about this rally when you look at the chart for the last 2 years -

Yes, but eventually we do need to get excited Burns, perhaps this is the time, but perhaps it's not. I couldn't tell you that.

Trends are made to be broken, and clinging to a chart in the face of an enormous rally may seem prudent, but when we do hit the bottom - you certainly don't want to be shorting that, or left behind for that matter.

Just remember, if trends didn't change - the market would have been at 20,000 right now

MR. said:
Will BHP shares fall? Yes, along with greater falls from all other commodity suppliers. It’s not if.....

You don't know that MR. Sorry, but you just don't. Folk were spouting that when BHP hit $20 too, just remember that. You're entitled to your opinion, but you can't state it as fact, is all.

MrBurns · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Yes, but eventually we do need to get excited Burns, perhaps this is the time, but perhaps it's not. I couldn't tell you that.

Exactly, no one can tell, but the chart shows nothing unusual in the long term - yet.

Nyden · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

MrBurns said:
Exactly, no one can tell, but the chart shows nothing unusual in the long term - yet.

Maybe not, but I do believe the previous lows are simply long gone. Punters have been reminded of the good times, and I don't believe they'll make the mistake of overselling everything again.

I guess the goal is to get in on the market before the bottom becomes evident to the masses though, eh :

MR. · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Maybe, but it I think it will be more around the 1000 point range if it does play out like that.

Assume it's not just the current expected range, just interested why? 1000?

Nyden said:
You don't know that MR. Sorry, but you just don't. Folk were spouting that when BHP hit $20 too, just remember that. You're entitled to your opinion, but you can't state it as fact, is all.

Ofcoarse not, it's just my opinion it's too early. But BHP is not that $20- anymore.

Nyden said:
Maybe not, but I do believe the previous lows are simply long gone. Punters have been reminded of the good times, and I don't believe they'll make the mistake of overselling everything again.

That may be right....... IMO ......... Was the market really oversold!

nomore4s · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

MR. said:
Assume it's not just the current expected range, just interested why? 1000?

No reason really, no more than a guess. The market tends to like round numbers or maybe it's just my bias for round numbers

tech/a · 8 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Well I feel he's pretty close.
But wouldnt rule out a lower low yet.

Other than that-------

nomore4s · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

For anyone who actually bothers to read my posts: I've obviously been bullish for a little while now. I'm yet to see too much to change my outlook (for now anyway).

We have had option 1 play out from this chart I posted earlier in this thread. This was the most bullish outlook at the time and while I thought it was a chance I really didn't think it would play out like it has.

I would now like to see a push through 4000 and then some consolidation above 4000 before an attempt at minor resistance at 4300. I'm starting to think 4800 isn't out of the question.

A lot of charts have now broken out of very solid basing patterns and along with the current strength in the markets it has me thinking there aren't too many weak hands holding stocks atm. This means that there could be some sort of distribution phase if we are to retest the lows. This will probably happen when the majority become bullish again because atm most people are still bearish or sceptical about this rally. If we see a strong swing in sentiment but fail to push higher it will be a strong warning sign of a possible reversal.

If my other theory about a trading range is to play out, the range could be between 3500-4500/4800.

Trembling Hand · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Nice work Nomore4s

Wait till the punters start jumping into the banks. The index could add some serious points in to time.

MS+Tradesim · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm with you Nomore4s. I think 4400 is plausible.

CamKawa · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

LOL. I like the way you circled the bear trap, that was me. I loaded up on shorts and then got blown out of the water. I'm back in my cave now licking my wounds. I've no idea when I will come out again.

MRC & Co · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
LOL. I like the way you circled the bear trap, that was me. I loaded up on shorts and then got blown out of the water. I'm back in my cave now licking my wounds. I've no idea when I will come out again.

lol, could have turned into a bearish false break flipper!

Agree, 4400 is plausable after our firm hold of 3800s.

CamKawa · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

The bullish posts here are interesting. If you have look at this chart, sentiment seems to be moving from bullish to bearish the more this rally progresses. Still, it might have some run in it yet. The DOW jumped 164 points overnight in the face of unemployment coming in at the higher end of the forecast range.

Source: http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/

nikemi · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

i don't seem to have even a fraction of the experience that some of the participants on this forum have so i would appreciate anyone's insight on this - i look at the XAO chart and it looks like we are coming close to an important Fib number, as well as the 200 DMA as well as previous support. Is that considered signifcant?

MRC & Co · 9 May 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
The bullish posts here are interesting. If you have look at this chart, sentiment seems to be moving from bullish to bearish the more this rally progresses. Still, it might have some run in it yet. The DOW jumped 164 points overnight in the face of unemployment coming in at the higher end of the forecast range.

Source: http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/

Yeh, I don't use these regular sentiment polls anymore, as I think most are aware these are contrarian indicators and hence, answer accordingly.

It's why I prefer to browse a forum, "do as I say, not as I do" comes to light a lot more then. You see who is actually taking positions, not just who thinks what.

Nikemi, I don't use MAs or Fib levels at all, so can't help on that one, sorry.

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