XAO Technical Analysis

OzWaveGuy · 23 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Speaking of EW, For those who are interested, the XAO is at a very interesting juncture. Since Nov 07, it has traced out x2 impulse (5 waves) waves separated by (a)-(b)-(c) correction that started in mid-march. Hence the overall move downwards from Nov 07 could be considered completed if it's viewed as a large correction. However, if the current Sep lows are broken (labeled as b), then wave iii of (iii) will be underway (down) and will be very aggressive indeed as almost all wave 3s are. The current Wave ii correction up appears to be tracing out an expanded flat (not unusual in wave 2 positions) that should complete the c portion of wave ii with 5 small waves up to fib resistance levels.

korrupt_1 · 23 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
Speaking of EW, For those who are interested, the XAO is at a very interesting juncture. Since Nov 07, it has traced out x2 impulse (5 waves) waves separated by (a)-(b)-(c) correction that started in mid-march. Hence the overall move downwards from Nov 07 could be considered completed if it's viewed as a large correction. However, if the current Sep lows are broken (labeled as b), then wave iii of (iii) will be underway (down) and will be very aggressive indeed as almost all wave 3s are. The current Wave ii correction up appears to be tracing out an expanded flat (not unusual in wave 2 positions) that should complete the c portion of wave ii with 5 small waves up to fib resistance levels.

Can you throw up a chart? picture is a thousand words

OzWaveGuy · 23 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Must of missed the upload before...

Whiskers · 23 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

professor_frink said:
So thats the problem, he's been taught Elliot wave by Whiskers. No wonder the world is in such a mess!

So should the solution be to ban technical analysis? Or ban Whiskers

Awesomandy said:
Just ban all Elliot waves that point to a down trend, and at the same time, ban all sales of stocks below the last traded price. That will fix it.

No no no no... you guys need me to keep yer all alert to the market going north. It is going north yer know. Just look at that pothole... it's just about patched over. :

OzWaveGuy said:
Speaking of EW, For those who are interested, the XAO is at a very interesting juncture. Since Nov 07, it has traced out x2 impulse (5 waves) waves separated by (a)-(b)-(c) correction that started in mid-march. Hence the overall move downwards from Nov 07 could be considered completed if it's viewed as a large correction. However, if the current Sep lows are broken (labeled as b), then wave iii of (iii) will be underway (down) and will be very aggressive indeed as almost all wave 3s are. The current Wave ii correction up appears to be tracing out an expanded flat (not unusual in wave 2 positions) that should complete the c portion of wave ii with 5 small waves up to fib resistance levels.

Well hello, OzWaveGuy.

I've claimed an 'L' plate in EW, and as you may have guessed, am having a wee bit of trouble getting someone to pass me on a 'P' plate.

But the good news is my count looks a lot like yours, particularly to the Flat ABC currently playing out.

Tell me though... why do you have your target at 5500?

Isn't the range for a flat ABC a bit wider?

Why do you think it's a wave two rather than a new wave one?

I'll put a best case scenerio... assuming todays low was ii, wave iii could take out 5700 and the max is well in play. Oh man, you watch me cop it now. The bludy bears are many and fierce around here.

OzWaveGuy · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Whiskers, It looks as though you have the drop from Nov 07 as a large A-B-C correction (couldn't quite tell as the chart doesn't go back that far). If true, then your final wave C should have most likely ended at the Sep low - good news for the bulls and reflects my point that XAO is at an important juncture to prove this correction scenario correct. Falling below Sep lows will then indicate another 5 wave pattern is unfolding (down),which unfortunately is my preferred scenario at this stage (in addition, looking at resource sector indicates a complete 5 wave down pattern, so we're in a corrective phase) The 5500ish target shows a bunch of Fibonacci resistance - an area that I'll be watching very closely

wayneL · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
Hi Whiskers, It looks as though you have the drop from Nov 07 as a large A-B-C correction (couldn't quite tell as the chart doesn't go back that far). If true, then your final wave C should have most likely ended at the Sep low - good news for the bulls and reflects my point that XAO is at an important juncture to prove this correction scenario correct. Falling below Sep lows will then indicate another 5 wave pattern is unfolding (down),which unfortunately is my preferred scenario at this stage (in addition, looking at resource sector indicates a complete 5 wave down pattern, so we're in a corrective phase) The 5500ish target shows a bunch of Fibonacci resistance - an area that I'll be watching very closely

Hi wavepicker,

You really think we'll get to 5500?

Cheers

tech/a · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Waves.

Why the different handles?

Trembling Hand · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone thinking of a dump and run on the open may want to play a wait and see game.

Funny things are a happening in the FUTS. Apparently all is well in la la land.

Someone throwing some more money at the banks??

this is the Dow Futs,

CamKawa · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Someone throwing some more money at the banks??

Could it be this bloke?

Berkshire to invest at least $5 billion in Goldman

jersey10 · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Anyone thinking of a dump and run on the open may want to play a wait and see game.

Funny things are a happening in the FUTS. Apparently all is well in la la land.

Someone throwing some more money at the banks??

this is the Dow Futs,

Mr Buffett?

Whiskers · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm a bit curious about what people see as the tell tale signs for the Aus markets direction... apart from following the herd after the fact.

While the details of the lastest US economic rescue plan isn't clear yet, for me it was always gonna be the case that they would intervene to stop the rot.

Also for me probably the main indicator for the Aus market recovering is the strengthening of the USD as an indication of the world community regaining some confidence to reinvest in the US due to the administrations intervention and also the falling cost of oil.

I found it impossible to reconcile the sustainability of high oil prices given the future prospects of the US. Demand destruction was always going to happen and once it sets in people often change their habits to consume less and or switch to alternative energy sources.

Joining the bigger dots in inevetable domino sequence... maybe with a bit of ESP or somethin... with the US continuing to function relatively normaly after the dust of all the regulatory changes and rescue packages settles, it seems to me that all the FA still reconciles with TA for the Aus market to rebound well.

Porper · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Tell me though... why do you have your target at 5500?

Isn't the range for a flat ABC a bit wider?

Whiskers, there are 3 basic types of flat corrections.

Regular, running and expanded.

On your count it can't be a regular as wave B ends too far below wave A.

With a running flat wave C will end below the end of wave A, we are in the zone for that scenario now, although in terms of time it is too short.

So we are left with an expanded flat where wave C can end "substantially" above wave A.

However you are a bit optomistic with 6500.

There is confluence around 5450, max 5660.

Porper · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Waves.

Why the different handles?

Yes, if it is you Wavepicker why not post under your original nick.

I and others enjoyed your posts, whatever politics is going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to most of us I would imagine.

What's the story ?

Trembling Hand · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Just an update on the runny rabbits. :flush:

korrupt_1 · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Just an update on the runny rabbits. :flush:

what goes up, must come down...

OzWaveGuy · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Yes, if it is you Wavepicker why not post under your original nick.

I and others enjoyed your posts, whatever politics is going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to most of us I would imagine.

What's the story ?

Sorry to disappoint This is my first time in this forum - but love EW - it's never wrong - only the way one reads it

dhukka · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Yes, if it is you Wavepicker why not post under your original nick.

I and others enjoyed your posts, whatever politics is going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to most of us I would imagine.

What's the story ?

Well just hypothesizing here, but if you create a new identity (and noone knows about it), then you can't be linked to your previous one. You can start with a clean slate and build up some kind of guru status for making a few approximately accurate calls. Problem is, when you start making some inaccurate calls and the crowd suddenly realizes you're not the chosen one, you have to create a new identity, and around we go again.

Frank D · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

"first time in this forum - but love EW - it's never wrong - only the way one reads it"

Oh my God.... i'm going to have fun ripping into you.

OzWaveGuy · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Well just hypothesizing here, but if you create a new identity (and noone knows about it), then you can't be linked to your previous one. You can start with a clean slate and build up some kind of guru status for making a few approximately accurate calls. Problem is, when you start making some inaccurate calls and the crowd suddenly realizes you're not the chosen one, you have to create a new identity, and around we go again.

Got it all worked out - OzWaveGuyII

wayneL · 24 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
"first time in this forum - but love EW - it's never wrong in hindsight"

Oh my God.... i'm going to have fun ripping into you.

I think that's what he meant to say Frank ^^^^^^^^

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