XAO Technical Analysis

springhill · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting how the market is up 2day when almost every other market OS was in the red.... is this the start of the dead cat bounce, or are people starting to see value in the market? Of all my stocks i own or on my watchlists, volume of SDL is the one i keep an eye on to use as a barometre of the market sentiment of the day. Currently at around 20 million shares traded, hasnt seen this volume for a week or 2

Sean K · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

springhill said:
Interesting how the market is up 2day when almost every other market OS was in the red.... is this the start of the dead cat bounce, or are people starting to see value in the market? Of all my stocks i own or on my watchlists, volume of SDL is the one i keep an eye on to use as a barometre of the market sentiment of the day. Currently at around 20 million shares traded, hasnt seen this volume for a week or 2

Day's not over. In this market a rumour could send it down 2% in seconds. Hold on to your hat!

Broadway · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Im just guessing ofcourse, but maybe the speeches by Paulson and Bernanke and the SEC chairman last night were somewhat reassuring.

They were quite honest about alot of topics. I picked up bits and pieces, like Bernanke feels we haven't reached peak oil, that they are chasing and catching wall street guys who are spreading rumours, and they will be making it harder in the future to massively short financial institutions.

All the regular banks are up 3-4% today.

And hopefully a vix around 32 might be enough for some bears.

Who knows, time will tell.

Whiskers · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Im just guessing ofcourse, but maybe the speeches by Paulson and Bernanke and the SEC chairman last night were somewhat reassuring.

They were quite honest about alot of topics. I picked up bits and pieces, like Bernanke feels we haven't reached peak oil, that they are chasing and catching wall street guys who are spreading rumours, and they will be making it harder in the future to massively short financial institutions.

All the regular banks are up 3-4% today.

And hopefully a vix around 32 might be enough for some bears.

Who knows, time will tell.

That's them bludy speculators and market manipulators again.

Hope they loose their shorts... er I mean pants and end up fully exposed, 'naked'. :

wavepicker · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like some support in time could be creeping here. Also concured by Cyclic Bands, which have reached an area whereby a regression to mean might be starting to build up soon as prices have reached an extreme relative to the Nominal, ofcourse could be a minor bounce and could continue lower but getting closer IMO. Cycle point blue 12 point due any time now in the Intermediate Cycle Timeframe of the Fixed Cycle Analysis

Doubt this would be a major low as still uncompleted EW subdivisions and also not enough TIME up yet.

Whiskers · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Oh dear, according to further study of my micro count, I have to adjust my target DOWN again to about 4812.

wavepicker said:
Doubt this would be a major low as still uncompleted EW subdivisions and also not enough TIME up yet.

Augh, common WP those speculators and manipulators have had too much of a go already. :

Not to worry too much I suppose... oil will strip them down to their 'shorts' pretty soon and they'll be rushing to get rugged up in 'longies' here again to avoid being left out in the cold.

davo8 · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Doubt this would be a major low as still uncompleted EW subdivisions and also not enough TIME up yet.

For my money EW is still voodoo but seems we agree: this is NOT the bottom. It doesn't look like at all like one, and there is too much fundamental bad news yet to come from US, Europe and local.

An average bear market drops 28%, or about where we are; a bad one more like 40% from peak, which is around 4100. Will it go that low? It just might, and there will be some great bargains then.

nizar · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
It doesn't look like at all like one, and there is too much fundamental bad news yet to come from US, Europe and local.

Remind us again how you know about which news is yet to come?

Sean K · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Kennas, I know jack about fundementals too. But I do know a bubble chart when I see one. The chart of Oil has gone parabolic and is starting to look like that of the Nasdaq back in 2000. Although I thought it may have found a top $20 lower than what it is trading now it is still a bubble in my eyes. The trouble with bubbles, especially in commodities is that it can be a waste of time looking for tops as the rate of change of price changes so fast. But the warning signs are there from long before and Oil does have that distinctive parabolic spike top about it!!

POOs fall has certainly had an instant effect on the perception in the US market. While a major contributor to inflation and reduced spending, it's not the root cause of the US/world problems, and any correction in POO may give the market's a break, but not completely turn them around. Maybe.

US certainly starting well, but who knows what could happen through the day...

wayneL · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Remind us again how you know about which news is yet to come?

It's like having a boil.

You can't see it at first, but you know it's there. You know it's only a matter of time before it comes to a head and bursts, spewing pus and dead tissue all over the place.

Quite easy really... cause ===>>> effect.

Anything else, Grasshopper?

wavepicker · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
POOs fall has certainly had an instant effect on the perception in the US market. While a major contributor to inflation and reduced spending, it's not the root cause of the US/world problems, and any correction in POO may give the market's a break, but not completely turn them around. Maybe.

US certainly starting well, but who knows what could happen through the day...

Obviously POO has been in a "blowoff" for a while. One thing about blowoff trends that is interesting:-

Countertrends are usually 1-2 days. If a countertrend usually exceeds 4 days, then the trend has most likely fractured. If the merket exceeds 4 days in a row down, then watch for the first counter back up. If it's only one day, then I am short to the buggery on the next down day!

Cheers

wavepicker · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
For my money EW is still voodoo but seems we agree: this is NOT the bottom. It doesn't look like at all like one, and there is too much fundamental bad news yet to come from US, Europe and local.

An average bear market drops 28%, or about where we are; a bad one more like 40% from peak, which is around 4100. Will it go that low? It just might, and there will be some great bargains then.

Think what you may, EW maybe voodoo, and sometimes it drives me mad too!! But anything that can give someone an edge(especially in this market!) is well worth pursuing.

How low? We can only wait and see, but as time gets closer the market will give us clues. EW might be voodoo and inconsistant, but on the other hand cycles extracted from past market data are not. They simply cycles- no subjectivity. Although they cannot pinpoint an exact high or low, they will alert you to an upcoming change and perhaps help you with the most likely wave count too.
Example: last September, some cyclic analysis charts I posted alerted us to the fact that the uptrend was very mature and due to turn. The market ran higher for another 2 months, but the warning signs were there. Each to their own!

Cheers

nizar · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Anything else, Grasshopper?

WTF ??
The question wasn't directed at you my friend.

wayneL · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
WTF ??
The question wasn't directed at you my friend.

OK. Just ignore what I said then.

davo8 · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Remind us again how you know about which news is yet to come?

Simple really. I read, I research and I use my brain. The broad trends are there for everyone to see. The news is just filling in the detail.

For some good reading, may I suggest:
Nouriel Roubini

# This is by far the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression
# Hundreds of small banks with massive exposure to real estate (the average small bank has 67% of its assets in real estate) will go bust
# Dozens of large regional/national banks (a’ la IndyMac) are also bankrupt given their extreme exposure to real estate and will also go bust
# Some major money center banks are also semi-insolvent and while they are deemed too big to fail their rescue with FDIC money will be extremely costly.

... and lots more.

Bank failures, pictures of people queuing to get their money out, sad stories, bankruptcies all make great news. This is how I know that news is coming, even though I don't know which banks or which pictures will make up that news.

This is one source of many. Do your own reading, as I do.

nizar · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Simple really. I read, I research and I use my brain.

Thanks Davo, will take that on board buddy

MRC & Co · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I belive it's called 'global macro' davo.

Some of the richest men on the planet have used it to amass their millions/billions.

Hope you had your shorts on the banks, consumer cyclicals, USD and longs on gold and energy over the past year.

Snakey · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Not the bottom yet my friends
temporary p!ss poor turn around IMO

white_goodman · 17 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Snakey said:
Not the bottom yet my friends
temporary p!ss poor turn around IMO

bring on the bad news i wanna hit bottom in roughly 2 months

Sean K · 18 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Simple really. I read, I research and I use my brain. The broad trends are there for everyone to see. The news is just filling in the detail.

For some good reading, may I suggest:
Nouriel Roubini

Bank failures, pictures of people queuing to get their money out, sad stories, bankruptcies all make great news. This is how I know that news is coming, even though I don't know which banks or which pictures will make up that news.

This is one source of many. Do your own reading, as I do.

Since we all know this davo, it must be factored in to the market already right?

XAO Technical Analysis

springhill

Make the drill work for YOU

Sean K

Moderator

Broadway

Whiskers

It's a small world

wavepicker

Attachments

Whiskers

It's a small world

Attachments

davo8

The Random Walker

nizar

Sean K

Moderator

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

wavepicker

wavepicker

nizar

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

davo8

The Random Walker

nizar

MRC & Co

Snakey

white_goodman

BOC

Sean K

Moderator

Similar threads

XAO Technical Analysis

Make the drill work for YOU

Moderator

It's a small world

Attachments

It's a small world

Attachments

The Random Walker

Moderator

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

The Random Walker

BOC

Moderator

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency