XAO Technical Analysis

Sean K · 14 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
2 days of very strong reversal candles.... can't help but feel that the bottom of this leg down was formed...

next question is... *if* this (was) the bottom... how high will the next leg up go?

.

So far yes, and well spotted. If the Fed does another round of money printing and loans it out at 0% ish then maybe a leg up for a bit.

Just compounding longer term problems perhaps, unless they start letting some people be accountable for their actions.

Whiskers · 14 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
2 days of very strong reversal candles.... can't help but feel that the bottom of this leg down was formed...

next question is... *if* this (was) the bottom... how high will the next leg up go?

.

Gettin close to bottom, I think too.

I firmly believe the oil price is the key. I think it's getting very close to correcting in a big way... this week?

Adding in a bit of 'L' plate EW, we might have a tad lower to go yet. EW'ers comments?

wavepicker · 14 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Gettin close to bottom, I think too.

I firmly believe the oil price is the key. I think it's getting very close to correcting in a big way... this week?

Adding in a bit of 'L' plate EW, we might have a tad lower to go yet. EW'ers comments?

I hope your right but, me thinks it will be perhaps 200-300 points lower and perhaps find a floor for this leg in a few weeks.

I feel we still need that washout phase to come in

theasxgorilla · 14 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
I hope your right but, me thinks it will be perhaps 200-300 points lower and perhaps find a floor for this leg in a few weeks.

I feel we still need that washout phase to come in

The part where people who have been holding start thinking, "to hell with this correction I'm liquidating!".

GreatPig · 15 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Even with today's push down, it's showing some bullish RSI divergence.

GP

davo8 · 15 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
Looks like that 4800 level discussed back in June is in play today...

Which June? 4800 has been on the cards since at least Feb this year.

And since we're obviously not at the bottom, next stop 4200 or so (but I guess another correction is not out of the question).

explod · 15 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

GreatPig said:
Even with today's push down, it's showing some bullish RSI divergence.

GP

From left to right the chart tells me down. And the markets across Europe indicate more of the same tomorrow.

GreatPig · 15 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Certainly looking like that divergence mightn't last at this point.

GP

Boggo · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
Looks like that 4800 level discussed back in June is in play today...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=301493&highlight=4800#post301493

I'll update another chart tonight but bigger picture still has 4200 as a potential target

I have been watching this come down to the first target, these target levels seemed far fetched then but its hit the min C target nicely today.

Scary stuff !

Sean K · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
Looks like that 4800 level discussed back in June is in play today...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=301493&highlight=4800#post301493

I'll update another chart tonight but bigger picture still has 4200 as a potential target.

I've only seen you ever mention 4800 Nick.

Snakey · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
I've only seen you ever mention 4800 Nick.

don't forget Snakey's prediction of 4200 back in January:bekloppt:

Whiskers · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Gettin close to bottom, I think too.

I firmly believe the oil price is the key. I think it's getting very close to correcting in a big way... this week? :o

Adding in a bit of 'L' plate EW, we might have a tad lower to go yet. EW'ers comments?

Hey, don't forget little ole me either.

Ye ole oil is startin to look pretty shakey tonight. Sub 140's been down to about 135 so far.

Sean K · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

How about this bear market action.

The YOYO was down 2% at one point and is now up .3% after oil dropped most in 3 years. And gold follows with a 15 buck tumble in a few moments.

Entertaining stuff.

All that after GWB gave one of the most uninspiring press conferences in recent years. And that's saying something. What a goose.

Whiskers · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeah kennas... will be good to see oil get a bit battering.

Looks like it might settle around 138 for now, but the weekly chart looks like it's just hanging on.

I reckoned it was gonna make a perfect evening star last week... until those speculators got in and supported it. :

But apart from my FA, I think EW was indicating the end of a multi year wave 5 from $49 anytime soon also. I'm still trying to get some better EW info, but it seems the correction will probably go well below 100 again... then the bulls start snorting again all over the world.

wavepicker · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

While I am on the topic of EW in other threads, these are my current musings . Since December last year I lave maintained a level of 4600-4700 in my EW charts. See monthly EW chart and Cyce Analysis in this post:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=313121&postcount=3747

It's been a challenge trying to map out the smaller subdivisions, pattern of trend and dates, as the market has fallen much faster than I expected. I expected it to hang around the 5000/5500 in a sideways formation for longer before tanking, but that's trading!!

I beleive we are at the tail end of green wave C now. Getting close blue wave 3 termination of green wave C. But still have whiles to go yet. Some important dates that are appearing ATM are 24th July and 15th Aug. Although I think 24th July as a Fib date might find some support, I think a major low might come in mid August. (See fixed time cycles) chart attached. Interestingly this fixed cycles chart consistantly shows that when 3 cycle points in a row either blue Intermediate term or red medium term complete, then the end of a larger cycle is completed. This was the case at the peak of 2008 and on the 17/3/08 when reactions in the opposite direction started. ATM we are nearing the completion of 2 cycles. It is not a necessity to complete 3, but just intetesting to note. If we need to complete 3 then the rally approaching in Aug mightonly be temporary before one last leg completes.

Some target levels, there is a strong Fibonacci cluster between 4687 and 4691, and that is where I am placing my bets for this leg down for a possible completion.

This is concurred by the Cycles Analysis chart in the link above. Throughout it's history of the last 25 years, any correction/crash made has found support and std deviations below the Nominal level I have calculated in that chart. The second std deviation on this chart is at 4650-4700. The lowest band( 3std devations) is at 4200, and one cannot rule out a drop to this level albeit being a lower probability based on this chart. Not saying that is the end of th bear, but a rally at least back to the blue line and beyond(which would be substantial) would be a very high probability.

Cheers

Sean K · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
While I am on the topic of EW in other threads, these are my current musings .

WP, You really need to update us on the gold count too and why is was so wrong. There must be an explanation, and it'd be nice to know for educational purposes. Cheers, kennas

wavepicker · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
WP, You really need to update us on the gold count too and why is was so wrong. There must be an explanation, and it'd be nice to know for educational purposes. Cheers, kennas

Not sure yet Kennas. Like everyone I do get things wrong.
The near term swings/analysis has been wrong and invalidated, but the longer term has not. So if it holds at the previous or below the previous high it is still valid.

With Oil looking like it may have come of the boil and even perhaps be on the verge of ending one of biggest speculative manias of the last 20 years, then Gold might follow soon.

Will update charts soon, want to see more PA play out first.

Sean K · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
With Oil looking like it may have come of the boil and even perhaps be on the verge of ending one of biggest speculative manias of the last 20 years, then Gold might follow soon.

Will update charts soon, want to see more PA play out first.

Cheers.

Yes, I can see this happening, as I am a believer that the POO is one of the vital ingredients for POG support. Others in the gold thread seem to think it may completely decouple at some point, but I'm not so sure.

Interesting POO way off, and POG finally held up today, although it obviously fell a lot mid day with oil.

Sorry, off XAO topic.

wavepicker · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Cheers.

Yes, I can see this happening, as I am a believer that the POO is one of the vital ingredients for POG support. Others in the gold thread seem it may decouple at some point, but I'm not so sure.

Sorry, off XAO topic.

Kennas, I know jack about fundementals too. But I do know a bubble chart when I see one. The chart of Oil has gone parabolic and is starting to look like that of the Nasdaq back in 2000. Although I thought it may have found a top $20 lower than what it is trading now it is still a bubble in my eyes. The trouble with bubbles, especially in commodities is that it can be a waste of time looking for tops as the rate of change of price changes so fast. But the warning signs are there from long before and Oil does have that distinctive parabolic spike top about it!!

nizar · 16 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
the market has fallen much faster than I expected. I expected it to hang around the 5000/5500 in a sideways formation for longer before tanking, but that's trading!!

I tend to agree wholly.
I thought we would see more sideways and less tanking and that if 4600-4800 was to be reached that the market would get there maybe towards the end of the year-ish.

I dont trade based on my analysis so its nothing more than an opinion.

XAO Technical Analysis

Moderator

It's a small world

Attachments

Problem solved... next bubble.

Pigs In Space

Attachments

The Random Walker

explod

Pigs In Space

Attachments

Moderator

It's a small world

Moderator

It's a small world

Attachments

Attachments

Moderator

Moderator

Attachments

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency