XAO Technical Analysis

austek · 11 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Wave Picker, whether your dates and counts are right or wrong, it gives us battlers who do not have this knowledge the ability to plan for the road ahead give or take days or weeks in the accuracy or lack of.

Thanks for putting in the effort and sharing. Takes my breathe away.

IFocus · 11 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks for all the work WP and putting it up on the thread looking forward to seeing how it plays out as always

Focus

wavepicker · 11 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Ifocus and Austek, no probs.

Barry, you may well be right. Time will tell...

Cheers

austek · 11 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

WP luv your work and I am now sticking my head into Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading book to get a grip on time projection, and have one question.

If it takes 55TD from Aug low to Nov high, why use 34 TD from Jan low to next high in March instead of 55TD.

Hoping it's just a simple question requiring a simple answer

wavepicker · 11 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

austek said:
WP luv your work and I am now sticking my head into Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading book to get a grip on time projection, and have one question.

If it takes 55TD from Aug low to Nov high, why use 34 TD from Jan low to next high in March instead of 55TD.

Hoping it's just a simple question requiring a simple answer

Thanks Austek, Miner is probably is not a bad place to start. I must admit I have not been studying and applying TIME for that long and did not look at Miners work. I just applied it through trial and error.

The main point I was trying to make in that chart was the 11th of March and that fact that so many counts starting from 4 different places ALL cluster on the same date(11th March). Two points clustering is a high probability of a turning point, but four points makes it a very high probability. The question now is will marke a high or a low. In the analysis I mentioned that IMO it will mark a high. Either way it has a good chance of being important. 34TD from the 22 Jan low clusters on the 11th March. 55TD from 22 Jan might also be important but have to quantified this yet. The next major time cluster, almost as important as the 11 March is the 27th May, and by my reckoning that might be a high, but it is a long ways off, let's focus on one move at a time for now.
Nizar asked the question earlier when to expect the next major low. Not sure about this yet.

For your info Tech did start a new thread on a book written Jeff Greenblatt who uses similar approaches using both Fibs and Lucas Numbers. I have heard this book is quite good. Here is the link to techs thread:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8924

I should note that there are a myriad of Fibonacci turnpoints possible all over the place and by using Lucas numbers as well as Fibs does not help. This is where using Fibs in isolation is a problem. Our job is to reduce the possibilities not increase them. That's where the Time Cycles and EW help, they are the guide and warn you of an approximate date ahead, by using the Fibs/Lucas numbers we can then narrow down to most probable date. Fibonacci Time analysis as Miner promotes can be like looking for a needle in a haystack at times.
Cheers

Porper · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Thanks Austek, Miner is probably is not a bad place to start. I must admit I have not been studying and applying TIME for that long and did not look at Miners work. I just applied it through trial and error.

The main point I was trying to make in that chart was the 11th of March and that fact that so many counts starting from 4 different places ALL cluster on the same date(11th March). Two points clustering is a high probability of a turning point, but four points makes it a very high probability. The question now is will marke a high or a low. In the analysis I mentioned that IMO it will mark a high. Either way it has a good chance of being important. 34TD from the 22 Jan low clusters on the 11th March. 55TD from 22 Jan might also be important but have to quantified this yet. The next major time cluster, almost as important as the 11 March is the 27th May, and by my reckoning that might be a high, but it is a long ways off, let's focus on one move at a time for now.
Nizar asked the question earlier when to expect the next major low. Not sure about this yet.

For your info Tech did start a new thread on a book written Jeff Greenblatt who uses similar approaches using both Fibs and Lucas Numbers. I have heard this book is quite good. Here is the link to techs thread:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8924

I should note that there are a myriad of Fibonacci turnpoints possible all over the place and by using Lucas numbers as well as Fibs does not help. This is where using Fibs in isolation is a problem. Our job is to reduce the possibilities not increase them. That's where the Time Cycles and EW help, they are the guide and warn you of an approximate date ahead, by using the Fibs/Lucas numbers we can then narrow down to most probable date. Fibonacci Time analysis as Miner promotes can be like looking for a needle in a haystack at times.
Cheers

Miner isn't a fan of fixed time cycles but with the market being dynamic, growing as time goes on, his theory seems to be the higher probability projections are made using recent swings, ie.low to low, low to highs etc, etc.Theory is that each cycle or wave will terminate at or near a cluster of all these projections.Sometimes this seems to work, others you can have 5 or 6 projections and they will be all over the place, so of no value, much like any other form of analysis, sometimes there isn't any helpful info.

Miner does acknowledge that sometimes fixed cycle counts do occur regularly and these are helpful, as are squares and anniversary dates.

At work, will post some examples if anyone interested when I have more time.

austek · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Porp I for one am interested to get a start in that direction, pertaining to the XAO.
Wait with interest

CFD · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Great work WP, pleased to see you are still studying these relationships. Looks like it might be a life long journey, congratulations on your efforts so far and your willingness to post them to help the understanding of these works by others.

Porper · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

austek said:
Thanks Porp I for one am interested to get a start in that direction, pertaining to the XAO.
Wait with interest

Just a quick short term chart with some projections on.

If the count is correct we will terminate wave 5 of 3 around the 5000 level, time projections point to 05th March.

Please note that Wavepicker has done much more work on his chart using various tools,and is further on in his understanding of time analysis. This is just using recent swings, measuring and projecting using fib.mainly to show people interested the basics, a starting point if you like.

All we have done is measured low to lows, low to highs and projected forward from various points to try and gain a clue as to where the trend may complete.(This is all in Miners book).You can see the cluster is around the 05th March.This makes this date a strong probability as a turning point.

If 6168 is broken the count is incorrect, if we do travel down to around the 5000 area we have only completed wave 3 of 5 so should expect a bounce up to wave 4, followed by another , maybe final leg down to complete the 5 wave structure.

nomore4s · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Some good support starting to form around 5600.

Sorry no chart at work, may post one later tonight

wavepicker · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Miner isn't a fan of fixed time cycles but with the market being dynamic, growing as time goes on, his theory seems to be the higher probability projections are made using recent swings, ie.low to low, low to highs etc, etc.Theory is that each cycle or wave will terminate at or near a cluster of all these projections.Sometimes this seems to work, others you can have 5 or 6 projections and they will be all over the place, so of no value, much like any other form of analysis, sometimes there isn't any helpful info.

Miner does acknowledge that sometimes fixed cycle counts do occur regularly and these are helpful, as are squares and anniversary dates.

At work, will post some examples if anyone interested when I have more time.

Hello Porper.

The way I am applying my fixed cycles is completely different to using anniversary dates and squares. In fact it's the best cycles analysis method aside from what Magdoran's geometric approach that I have seen. The fixed cycles approach I use is closely tied in with EW and the cycles points are in fact terminations of waves. It has specific rules and guidlelines for it's use like EW does. Rather pinpointing an exact date it alerts you to potential change in trend approaching. It's major advantage is that it (along with EW) quantifies the signifance of a turning point(i.e degree of trend) compared to other approaches Then other methods(such as Fibs or even Gann geometric approaches) are applied to obtain further accuracy. Applying fibs like Miner is saying has much merit, but applying them in isolation without any other confluences is like looking for a needle in a haystack as mentioed in an earlier post, as there are many possibilities.

BTW, I think we got the pivot we were looking for today, even now looking at the DJIA it has formed an ED on it's 50% retarce of the move down and IMO is going to rally

Cheers

Kauri · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
BTW, I think we got the pivot we were looking for today, even now looking at the DJIA it has formed an ED on it's 50% retarce of the move down and IMO is going to rally

Cheers

Miners automatic Fib Time routine.. in the lower ind. panel.. done several weeks ago... filtered to show only the major hits... may tie in with your findings....
and where the dow goes so we follow???
Cheers
..........Kauri

chops_a_must · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The only stick in the mud that I can see is the financial index poking through vital support.

CBA earnings tomorrow will be absolutely crucial for the market. Would want to see some of the financials kick up a bit, and if they do, a triangle breakout on the XAO looks good to me. Certainly wouldn't want to be short, but don't want to be buying with ears pinned back either. Going to be a matter of picking the right stocks I feel.

wavepicker · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Certainly wouldn't want to be short, but don't want to be buying with ears pinned back either. Going to be a matter of picking the right stocks I feel.

Good point Chops, we must not forget also that we are still in a bear campaign and any rally will probably be only a brief opportunity.

wavepicker · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Just a quick short term chart with some projections on.

If the count is correct we will terminate wave 5 of 3 around the 5000 level, time projections point to 05th March.

Please note that Wavepicker has done much more work on his chart using various tools,and is further on in his understanding of time analysis. This is just using recent swings, measuring and projecting using fib.mainly to show people interested the basics, a starting point if you like.

All we have done is measured low to lows, low to highs and projected forward from various points to try and gain a clue as to where the trend may complete.(This is all in Miners book).You can see the cluster is around the 05th March.This makes this date a strong probability as a turning point.

If 6168 is broken the count is incorrect, if we do travel down to around the 5000 area we have only completed wave 3 of 5 so should expect a bounce up to wave 4, followed by another , maybe final leg down to complete the 5 wave structure.

Hello Pete,

I also came with that cluster as well for the 5th March before finding the 11th March date but it was too far away from my expected Cycle point so kept it as an alternate . Also came up with 21st March which is another possibility, but the pattern of the trend as we approach the time (in the right direction hopefully) will be the best guide.

As mentioned earlier, there are a myriad of possibilities available.

I tend to look at following aspects to narrow them down:

-Pattern
-Time(Cycle Points)
-Lastly price Level

Porper · 12 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Hello Porper.

BTW, I think we got the pivot we were looking for today, even now looking at the DJIA it has formed an ED on it's 50% retarce of the move down and IMO is going to rally

Cheers

I agree wavepicker, something has to give,I have the XAO still bearish (although today wasn't a good day for that scenario)and the Dow bullish.I posted this chart on another forum this morning, so with a high probability that the XAO will not go down while the Dow rallies, then one is incorrect.

I know which I think is incorrect.

wavepicker · 13 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
Miners automatic Fib Time routine.. in the lower ind. panel.. done several weeks ago... filtered to show only the major hits... may tie in with your findings....
and where the dow goes so we follow???
Cheers
..........Kauri

Looks like we are getting the move we expected Kauri, hopefully a good day today

sassa · 13 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
and where the dow goes so we follow???
Cheers
..........Kauri

The Dow or the more accurate indicators? of the American market,the Nasdaq and the Wilshire 5000.

Kauri · 13 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
The Dow or the more accurate indicators? of the American market,the Nasdaq and the Wilshire 5000.

I actually use the S+P500 as the most typical of the US market... but as the subject was the Dow,,, well when in Rome..
>>>>
.......Kauri

Kauri · 13 February 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm not convinced that we are going to have a great rally from here... todays financial sector notwithstanding.... if the Dow/S+P rallied overnight mainly on Buffett then when it really sinks in that he is only offfering to insure the monos top flight gear.. and at a premium of 1.5x what it is currently set at.. then the euphoria may fade as quickly as it arrived...
Also although a lotof the writedowns in US and some of the bigguns in Europe have surfaced.. one country that has a very large financial investment in all things American has been noticably absent at the coming out party.. when, as opposed to if, they make a late appearance, possibly through March, we may have more mayhem to contend with... unless of course in the meantime...
just rambling
.................Mrs Watanabe..

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