XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS

[tech/a]

There are a number of indicators telling us that this is an important high thats just been completed.
Im seriously considering my long term positions and am beginning to like Waynes shorting methodologies in the year to come.More will unfold soon.

This is just one such interesting "coincidence."!!??

 

[RichKid]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I'm looking to short it too (xjo for me), started checking it out after the fall through the lower trend support (my trendline was in between your last two trend lines Tech) last week. Just did some 'drawing' this morning. Didn't notice the high/low measure you observed- very interesting count. If it doesn't bounce up temporarily to form a shoulder and closes below 4075 tomorrow I'm short all the way to around 3450. Eitherway not looking good for the next few months.

A retracement tool would be ideal for this situation using Fibonacci levels etc, not that I'm any good at it but it would be a good guide for trading the short side, if it falls.

 

[doctorj]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

A close below the line and I'm off to hire a bear costume.

 

[RichKid]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Funny how each of us draw the trend lines and support levels differently- that's what makes a market- different views, although we are more or less in agreement here.

Next question- how are each of you hoping to trade this? Or is it just an exercise to get an idea of general market direction?

Some methods: short the actual big blue chips that are in the index (either directly or via derivatives), use index warrants, futures.

Maybe we should also start a thread on midcap and bluechip stocks to short? Anyone game??

 

[doctorj]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I've not had much luck trying to start discussion threads, but I'm game.

My experience in shorting is very limited, so it may prove to be a learning exercise for me.

When we start to talk about the prospect of shorting, CFDs strike me as an inviting means of easily going short. I'd be interested in your comments.

 

[RichKid]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I've not had much luck trying to start discussion threads, but I'm game.

My experience in shorting is very limited, so it may prove to be a learning exercise for me.

When we start to talk about the prospect of shorting, CFDs strike me as an inviting means of easily going short. I'd be interested in your comments.

Doc,
Haven't gone into CFD's yet, need to get my standard trading going well first. You can just use Comsec for shorting these days (via put options, warrants)- derivatives give you flexibility and you don't need a CFD platform for that but it is versatile once you know how to use them properly (which I don't, but CFD's are on my 'need to learn about' list, just not a big priority atm). There was a fairly good thread on CFD's somewhere here on ASF, from about six months ago. It's very risky for the uninitiated. The good news for us is if this falls there'll be time to get in on the action as there's a long way to go before strong support.

(Here's the CFD thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=769&highlight=contracts+difference )

 

[doctorj]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I'll have to set commsec up for derivatives.

I agree that CFDs will require a lot of research before trading. There are several fantastic threads on CFDs at Reefcap.

As a small aside, today marks the third big down day for XAO in a row. Perhaps a 3 day bounce is one the cards - though the article in the AFR today about the growing possibility of one or two 50pb rises by the fed is worrisome.

 

[RichKid]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I'll have to set commsec up for derivatives.

Doc,
You'll need to do some paperwork for that, might take a few days or more so keep it in mind. I don't use comsec for options, mainly warrants or if there are co issued options I trade those.

I started the shorting thread in the ASX stock chat forum: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9377#post9377

 

[DTM]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I've changed into my shorts already. Looking at blue chip stocks because am hoping that they will fall faster.

Surf's up, time to catch those waves.



:bowser:


Happy trading.

 

[markrmau]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I think you may have just missed the boat to short XJO, and people are thinking of unwinding these postions. OTOH, bhp seems to have been heavily sold off.

 

[markrmau]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

OTOH, bhp seems to have been heavily sold off.

, but wouldn't puts be pretty expensive by now? Difficult to make money here?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

There is one form of analysis that is predictive and I have found pretty accurate particularly if the analysis is by an experienced exponent.

Nick Radge of Reefcap and Maquarie Bank has spent many years plying his skills in this form of analysis.

ELLIOT WAVE.
He is pretty spot on and through the industry has contact with other ace exponents of the analysis.

I asked him his veiw on the wave count for the ORDS.
This was his reply.

The best interpretation at the moment is that we're in the wave 5. My data only goes back to 1952, but someone I know has it back to 1900 also says its wave-5. This is best interpreted using a semi log chart

If this is a wave-5 then we could expect a multi year decline back to 2600 - 2800, else 2200 - 2400 is also possible. If this is wave-(1) then usually the wave-(2) tends to retrace 50% - 61.8%. They're calling the S&P back to 440 - its currently trading at 1177...

Pretty ominous!
Most are calling this "The " top only one I know is predicting a further higher high as a possibility.His cycle analysis is another I respect as well, you maybe interested in reading his analysis.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/001509.html

Ive always been one for letting the price action govern my trading.
Ill be watching any up move very carefully and if a lower high is made and a further lower low then is created I will be selling out of ALL long positions.
This could happen in April.

As the correction is likely to be sustained then Ill be looking at short positions.

Just my veiws under advice from people whos analysis I respect.


tech

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Ive been waiting for this to happen for sometime now tech/a, and I have to say I agree with Mr Waves predictions aswell. I dont believe it will go back as far as he sugests, however i do think it will fall back to atleast 3500. But because of the strong demand from china at this stage for both energy and resources, and the declinging supply of oil/ergy, I dont think we will see a large fall in these areas.

 

[DTM]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I've just added SUN on my list of stocks to go down. So far the list for puts are SUN, BIL, CCL, NWS.

 

[money tree]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

market is now 80 points off its low

be careful shorts

 

[DTM]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Anyone getting that sinking feeling?

XJO down 20 points with 20 minutes to go.

 

[markrmau]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

You beat me to it LOL.

Paradoxically, the market doesn't like the rates not going up today - thinking perhaps there is a lack of confidence in forward direction of economy.

 

[RichKid]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Testing minor support levels atm, a big drop in the last half of today. XJO bounced off 4100, if trend continues it'll fall through it tomorrow but a new day is hard to predict as there is so much volatility at the start of the day and that could change the trend. Volumes aren't flash. Could this be the lower top or just a start before another lower top?

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

You beat me to it LOL.

Paradoxically, the market doesn't like the rates not going up today - thinking perhaps there is a lack of confidence in forward direction of economy.

Bugger!

Gutless bastids shoulda jacked rates!

Currency traders have reacted negatively... though only mildly so. Could see a weakening AUD.

 

[money tree]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

eur bond auction shows big demand for high yields
result - nzd rallies