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I see your point but your graph is based on a relatively short (aka a generation) timeline, where we had in the west the effect of a great age pyramid/demographicThere was an excellent podcast presentation on Andrew Swanscott's "Better System Trader" that mentioned the risk of NOT being in the market (some time ago - I'd have to dig back for the episode). Basically that over the long term the trend is up, albeit with some very inconvenient drawdowns along the way, such that a long term investor can't afford to risk not always having at least some size position in the market.
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I see your point but your graph is based on a relatively short (aka a generation) timeline, where we had in the west the effect of a great age pyramid/demographic
Now these inflated baby boomers number are going into spending more than saving, western world has reached a max in term of consumption capacity etc.I very doubt that these trends have any real meaning in the west; in the indonesian market or maybe indian market, yes but not here.people draw money when in pension more than they contribute, be it in their super or own investment, this new phase starts now!!!To the despair of our government pushing debt blindly to avoid the economical truth
Whenever I see a long term chart like this I always wonder if the comparison is fair:
For the entire decade of 1875-1885, All the market moving events, trades and (inflation adjusted) dollar value of trades could probably be squeezed into a month of frantic trading in 2017.
The velocity of money was so much slower, market adjustments and participants were also much slower...
Wall of worry is the term that comes to mind.Craft I am not saying the market cannot go higher but its hard to see the market being going sharply higher. Modestly higher yes, but sharply higher I just cannot see the fundamentals supporting it. If you look at p.e. ratios, Cyclically adjusted p.e. ratios, price to book ratios, etc for the Aussie market there is nothing to suggest its greatly undervalued (other than the earnings yield to bond yield comparison).
Interest rates in Australia are close to the bottom pf the cycle so there is not going to be much if any free kick from falling interest rates, the opposite is more likely in fact.
As for corporate earnings the resources companies will be faced with an oversupply of the major commodities for years to come. Sure there might be some cyclical upswings and downswings in resource earnings but I cannot see a major continued uptrend occurring there. Banks can increase their earnings modestly over time but given the high level of indebtedness in the Australian economy its hard to see how strong credit growth (and hence strong earnings growth) can be sustained. Modest credit growth is more likely. Also in the meantime Bank's are facing increased regulations and capital requirements that are impacting margins and earnings. As for Telco stocks Australia is a mature market and new technologies and companies will simply compete away the earnings of the outdated technologies/companies. Overall I don't see huge growth in aggregate Telco earnings. As for retail earnings most of the Australian retailers listed on the share-market are outdated dinosaurs that will slowly be crushed by companies like Amazon, Aldi, Expedia, etc.
Sure some of the other sectors like tourism, healthcare and education, etc might do well over time but given the heavy weighting of banks, miners and energy stocks in the index they will act as a drag limiting the upward momentum of the market.
For the record I am modestly bullish on the overall market as opposed to strongly bullish.
American business – and consequently a basket of stocks – is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation, productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will see to that. Ever-present naysayers may prosper by marketing their gloomy forecasts. But heaven help them if they act on the nonsense they peddle.
I enjoy your posts Craft.
As an aside,
How do share offers / raising's get included in these type of indexes? I view these as a bit of a hidden win?
Everything I’m looking at still suggest we are still very close to fair value.Updating my data for end of month and noticed my touchstone for fair value has just about reached the level of all time high's of the index. Sensing the level of bearish sentiment still widely prevelant it wouldn't suprise me if the current move still has some good legs.
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Everything I’m looking at still suggest we are still very close to fair value.
That’s not to say that we couldn’t in the relatively short-term re-visit 5,000 on for example a hard landing from bad debts relating to housing or up to 9,000+ as things reprice on the expectation that inflation will be lower for longer. Both would be extended valuations but within historical norms of valuation.
Given valuation is only around fair level’s currently, I just don’t see this market yet getting anything near the love needed to suggest its long-term demise is imminent. I suspect the un-loved bull continues – the bear market everybody fears will start one day, but it could be from a much higher price level/valuation. Who really knows what the future holds? Maybe we just keep chugging along around fair value of underlying economic fundamentals which slowly and boringly head north east under relentless human endeavour. Perhaps we are in for another decade of no valuation extremes - Keeping the noise down (+ or – std dev of fair value) is much more the norm for index pricing than the extended valuation points like GFC, 70’s inflation, Great Depression etc that give rise to the extremes in price that people fear.
Calling since 2007 a consolidation that requires a second part that takes us back to or below 2007 lows would create extreme “normalised” valuation never seen before.
ps Thank you for the comment Newt.
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