XAO Bull

[CanOz]

I was just wanting to see what it looked like when the volume-at-price is set per month, for example. Zoomed in to the last year or so.

If i did exactly what you're requesting you'll get a lumpy profile. If you tell me what you want to see specifically then i might be able to pull something up for you, eg. levels based on a long term chart, but sown with high granularity on an intra-day chart?

 

[craft]

First the SPI.

SPI200 (XJO Futures)

I have highlighted the main value area. I suspect we'll run-out of steam soon at the 5384-5403 area. If we do not find sellers there, then i would target 5440 for sellers. If we can consolidate at 5440, this would be a very positive sign for a move higher....However if this area gets firmly rejected, along with 5400, then we could be headed to the lower side of the value area, 3500. We should be able to see this play out in the next few weeks because we are relatively close to those levels now.

Looks like some of the levels you discussed here might come into play. Does the small pull back & Recovery since this post change anything in your reading of things?

Cheers

My view from the Technical side is that in both price/percentage and time the market has not come back far enough in my opinion.

I believe we are in a C wave and from this perspective am expecting the market to still come back towards 4500 towards the end of the year.

Although I must say that it has been holding up well around the 5000 level on any pullback.

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What would it take to change your mind? Do you have a 'if' 'then' sort of read on the market like CanOz described or are you confident that the market will abide by your view?

 

[CanOz]

Looks like some of the levels you discussed here might come into play. Does the small pull back & Recovery since this post change anything in your reading of things?

Yeah i posted that i was bullish from the clear rejection with volume on the 6th. XAO Banter thread i think.

The Market has seen some great momentum, today we're at the 5400 level with some resistance at 5425. We're getting close to the top of the channel, so we could expect some resistance there.

That said, this market is not showing any signs of slowing down and is rapidly accepting value higher. IT would take an abrupt end to the auction to change our minds now, that would involve a large volume rejection of these levels.

5340 would be my line in the sand sort of level, if we can continue to accept value above that then i'm still bullish

 

[Joules MM1]

seems not everyone so enamored by the bull

cfd on cmc front month contract has
80% sells on A200 ($XJO front month contract)
91% sells on spx ($SPX front month contract)

......just.can't.quite.pick the right emoji to go with that

 

[craft]

She don't come round that often and she's typically late but I think the old Cow might be onto the scent of a Bull.

 

[Value Hunter]

Craft where will the earnings growth come from to support a bull market? Or will it just be a case of above average p.e. ratios getting even higher?

 

[Newt]

She don't come round that often and she's typically late but I think the old Cow might be onto the scent of a Bull.

View attachment 66864

Egad! Is that an indicator (Coppock) on that graph? I'd be curious how many indicators you've kept in your normally FA/value orientated world craft?

There do seem to be some bullish hints for the Aussie market when you step out and look at the weekly or even monthly picture. Recent higher volume "bullish" months off the lower end of price channels. American markets still seem near upper limits (all time highs and upper price channels), albeit off what is a more devalued currency, which could translate into headwinds for continued Aussie optimism. Would be nice to see some evening up in performance between Aus and US however

 

[Value Hunter]

Share market returns have three components: dividends, earnings per share growth and changes in the price to earnings ratio. For the overall sharemarket (index fund) in Australia dividend payout ratios are already very high therefore without earnings growth there is not much room for dividend growth. The earnings outlook for Australian companies generally is not good as reaources and banking stocks which are the biggest sectors of the market are both facing cyclical headwinds over the next rew years. Price to earnings ratios are already abive average by historical standards even more so given the subdued earnings outlook. I just do not see it as likely that the All Ordinaries will move up strongly in thenext year or two.

I am interested to hear your reasons for being bullish on the market Craft.

 

[craft]

Egad! Is that an indicator (Coppock) on that graph? I'd be curious how many indicators you've kept in your normally FA/value orientated world craft?

Yep its the Cow-poke (Coppock). I'm afraid that pretty much exhausts my arsenal of indicators. Although I do keep a reasonably close eye on market breadth and occasionally I might pull up a momentum oscillators (don't care which one) to check for divergence. But largely my charting package is wasted on me these days except I do like to look at just the plain charts (Full history in Equicandle format) of the stocks I'm interested in. A picture paints a thousand words.

 

[craft]

I am interested to hear your reasons for being bullish on the market Craft.

Have you read the thread? Basically I was Bullish at/below 5000 because of my perception of value and because most other people were not.

The higher the price goes, the less value I see on offer and the more I see people get on Board the more my Bullishness will wane. I'm just filling time until the real bulls arrive to take over the thread one day.

 

[Value Hunter]

Yep its the Cow-poke (Coppock). I'm afraid that pretty much exhausts my arsenal of indicators. Although I do keep a reasonably close eye on market breadth and occasionally I might pull up a momentum oscillators (don't care which one) to check for divergence. But largely my charting package is wasted on me these days except I do like to look at just the plain charts (Full history in Equicandle format) of the stocks I'm interested in. A picture paints a thousand words.

I did not realise you were closet technician

 

[CanOz]

I did not realise you were closet technician

He's just a smart guy, one of the gems on ASF.

 

[Wysiwyg]

She don't come round that often and she's typically late but I think the old Cow might be onto the scent of a Bull.

The daily Coppock for S&P 500 crossed below zero in March this year for the first time in over 6 years. The weekly Coppock for S&P 500 turned down in December last year for the first time in over 7 years. There is divergence in price and Coppock weekly. Just noting because if U.S. goes down we follow to a lesser or greater extent. Terrible lag. :frown:

 

[craft]

I did not realise you were closet technician

Oh dear you have found me out - yes I like to look at naked charts, sometimes I even run scans on price data Oh, I feel so dirty.

He's just a smart guy, one of the gems on ASF.

No one has ever called me smart before, well not without adding another for letters, you'll make me blush.

The daily Coppock for S&P 500 crossed below zero in March this year for the first time in over 6 years. The weekly Coppock for S&P 500 turned down in December last year for the first time in over 7 years. There is divergence in price and Coppock weekly. Just noting because if U.S. goes down we follow to a lesser or greater extent. Terrible lag. :frown:

Interesting sniping, Coppock was designed to work only on index's, only on monthly data and only for bottoms, the signal is a up turn below zero. And yes by design it will lag.

 

[systematic]

Oh dear you have found me out - yes I like to look at naked charts,

At first, I thought it read, "I like to look at charts naked"...which is probably taught in some obscure Gann course. Hey, whatever works!

Whilst it's confession time...I'll come clean, too. Whilst I have zero need to look at a chart as far as my plan goes, I still do it from time to time. I can't help myself. 90% of investors do it, I'm sure...and the other 10% are lying.

Random funny:

 

[cynic]

At first, I thought it read, "I like to look at charts naked"...which is probably taught in some obscure Gann course. Hey, whatever works!

Whilst it's confession time...I'll come clean, too. Whilst I have zero need to look at a chart as far as my plan goes, I still do it from time to time. I can't help myself. 90% of investors do it, I'm sure...and the other 10% are lying.

Thou durst not confess to tainted bloodlines lest thou be declared a mudblood by Lord ValdeHunt. At the peril of thy immortal soul, I beseech thee, shield the pedigree dream from the grievous bite of thy mongrel analyst reality lest thou shatter the faith of the reverent members of Trading House Sly There In!

Random funny:

View attachment 66882

Funny how cartoonists ofttimes convey a profound truth! That particular truth is seldom addressed in many of the widely acclaimed gospels.

As usual, I have gone a bit off topic, so all I can say about the XAO Bull is that, since the advent of GFC it too often tends to be exactly that, and moreover, loads of it!

 

[galumay]

No one has ever called me smart before, well not without adding another for letters, you'll make me blush.

Oh come now, too much modesty! I and many others may not have used the word 'smart' but there is widespread admiration for your knowledge, wisdom and generosity in sharing both here on ASF.

 

[Value Hunter]

View attachment 65284

Nothing seems too disturbing here from a Big Picture Australian Valuation perspective.

Note how that chart starts in 1983. 1982 was the start of the greatest secular (i.e. long-term) bull market in stock market history. I bet if you used a 100 year chart it would not look so rosy. In the grand scheme of Thongs your sample size of data on that chart was both too small and represented an exceptionally bullish period of stock market history.

I have seen longer term CAPE charts and I can tell you its a somewhat different story.

 

[craft]

Note how that chart starts in 1983. 1982 was the start of the greatest secular (i.e. long-term) bull market in stock market history. I bet if you used a 100 year chart it would not look so rosy. In the grand scheme of Thongs your sample size of data on that chart was both too small and represented an exceptionally bullish period of stock market history.

I have seen longer term CAPE charts and I can tell you its a somewhat different story.

Yes of course you’re right.

I didn’t pick the start date because it corresponds with the floating of the Aus Dollar a rather paradigm changing event on historical data in Aus. And I didn’t pick it because in calculating the CAPE it looks back 10 years and picks up both 1982 and 1974 data which is the two largest deviations on the price chart. And I didn’t pick it because the US Cape was coming off its lowest point since the Great depression. And I didn’t pick it because the dollar floating was the most meaningful start point in the data I have. And I didn’t pick it because I feel the modern data I have collected is a bit more robust than the historical. I didn’t put up over 30+years of history because I thought the real strength of the chart is its longitudinal comparison of modern history.

I wish you would have just shared the source of your historical Aus Cape Chart in your post – then I could stop collecting my data which I collect (and stupidly shared here) because I couldn’t find anything historical in relation to CAPE for AUS.

Looking forward to you putting up the data to back your assertion.

 

[sinner]

Note how that chart starts in 1983. 1982 was the start of the greatest secular (i.e. long-term) bull market in stock market history. I bet if you used a 100 year chart it would not look so rosy. In the grand scheme of Thongs your sample size of data on that chart was both too small and represented an exceptionally bullish period of stock market history.

I have seen longer term CAPE charts and I can tell you its a somewhat different story.

Your point stands, however it is also worth adding that if 1982 is the secular low (and if you look at US CAPE charts for example, it is), then a full range of valuations that represent the spectrum of cheap <=> expensive is included in the dataset. That is the most important thing.

If you have a 100 year CAPE for Australia, I would also love to see it.