Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

X64 - Ten Sixty Four

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Guess we'll just have to see how it plays out Country Lad, the way I see it their reasoning for missing the guidance over the last two quarters has good reasoning behind it. I'm willing to take management at their word as they've continued to be open and honest (as far as I can tell) regarding production, guidance, issues etc ever since I started holding.

Also while I agree with you that the market is always right, I'd adjust that statement to say thats its always right eventually. For instance read the TGA thread where many people bought in at $1.50 because people were discussing and agreeing on the undervalued nature of the business, turns out those people (and the market) eventually got it right and now its over $2.00.

My view on the market is its a bit like a person driving a car, they might be in the correct position on the road most of the time but they can also swerve off a little bit, then over-correct and swerve to the opposite side. Same with the market, they get it right when they are in the middle of swerving but there are opportunities either side of that to buy and/or sell when it over-corrects or under-corrects.

Anyway probably just a difference of views, either way I have confidence in management and the company that by years end they will producing more ounces of gold with a higher EPS and the share price will reflect that.

Cheers
 
The last few days have seen notices of ceasing to be a substantial holder and change of substantial holding notices being lodged with the ASX. It looks like institutional investors are getting out of MML and so it might be a while yet before the share price recovers and there could be more downside to the share price yet even if gold does recover or stabilize.

I'm planning to increase my holding substantially at some point but it might be a while off yet.
 
I wouldn't be too concerned, there's been 5 notices of changes to substantial holding (none ceasing to be substantial holders) and 2 of those were vanguard which would have to reduce their position due to MML getting pushed down so hard over the last week. While the other two institutions have reduced their positions it hasn't been by a huge amount (a few million shares) which has probably put pressure on the share price but it looks to have subsided for now.

The positive side to this is if (i believe more like when) we see an increase to the share price Vanguard will be required to increase their stake again in line with the index which will further increase the price which may get institutions to jump back in some more again.

Personally, I believe the share price will take care of itself over the next 12-18 months PROVIDING that Medusa reach or come very close to reaching their desired 200,000 ounces per year production guidance. If they can achieve this the share price will take care of itself.

Note: I'm a believer that the gold price will not drop below around $1,200 per ounce and is likely to stay either where it is currently or move back higher again. In these scenarios MML still makes a great margin on its gold sales. The gold price would have to drop to $600-$800 per ounce before it was of a concern to MML.
 
I was surprised to see that the price of MML held up today. I was expecting a fall on the back of falling price of gold. Perhaps 2.05 is the new support level?
 
tinhat said:
I was surprised to see that the price of MML held up today. I was expecting a fall on the back of falling price of gold. Perhaps 2.05 is the new support level?
Click to expand...

Haha - that was funny.

MML is getting hammered today after releasing a quarterly report that seems to have disappointed the market. There were no great surprises in the quarterly but I guess the instos that bought in the capital raising at 1.80 are now heading for the doors and taking their profit?

The new mill seems to be getting up to speed through the commissioning. Perhaps investors are concerned about the mining - whether enough ore at high enough grade is being mined to feed the mills? Is anyone following this miner that has an opinion on whether they are going to ramp up mining enough ore to feed the new mill? By the end of next quarter they should have three mills, one new and two relined all at full production.

Given that MML has just had two absolutely dog years of mining, production the shares seem priced for things to only get worst and surely with the new mill being commissioned things have to look up!
 
tinhat, i've held onto my MML through all the bumps in the road and even bought more at these lows. I certainly feel that everything negative is essentially priced in at this $1.80-$2.20 type level and that there is upside to at least $3+ once they start having some success with the full production. Everything over the last 2 years has been a process of getting to this point of producing 200,000 ounces per annum and they are ramping towards this now.

Many of the issues have been largely out of their control (fires, terrential rain, etc etc). You could argue the power cells was their fault for going to a crappy provider but it seems the new ones must be doing the job so maybe that was just unlucky as well. Either way i think we've seen about 80% of things go against them and maybe 20% of things go their way of the last 2 years and my view is that those %'s will shift now as the ramp up to full production occurs.

The back of the envelope calcs i've done on MML show that $3.50 is a real possibility if 150,000 ounce production occurs with no shift in the gold price. If anything close to 200,000 occurs and the gold price stays the same or increases, then anything north of $4.00 is not out of the question in my view.

That might sound very optimistic but they got well past those price levels on just 100,000 ounce production and while the gold price at that stage was around $1,600+, the gold price hasn't halved but the production may double, so $4.00+ to me is not out of the question.
 
I like the current look of the MML chart.

We can expect a pop on Monday due to Golds rise overnight, which sets up the ascending triangle pattern currently under construction.

The triangle pattern aside there's a few other things to like about this chart, namely the constructive build up off the November lows and the pending break of the longer term descending trendline at the same time the ascending triangle break comes into play.

Gold stocks unfortunately need some co-operation from the price of Gold itself, but nonetheless I can see MML reach $1.10 at least in the short term.

MML.jpg
 
kermit345 said:
tinhat, i've held onto my MML through all the bumps in the road and even bought more at these lows. I certainly feel that everything negative is essentially priced in at this $1.80-$2.20 type level and that there is upside to at least $3+ once they start having some success with the full production. Everything over the last 2 years has been a process of getting to this point of producing 200,000 ounces per annum and they are ramping towards this now.

Many of the issues have been largely out of their control (fires, terrential rain, etc etc). You could argue the power cells was their fault for going to a crappy provider but it seems the new ones must be doing the job so maybe that was just unlucky as well. Either way i think we've seen about 80% of things go against them and maybe 20% of things go their way of the last 2 years and my view is that those %'s will shift now as the ramp up to full production occurs.

The back of the envelope calcs i've done on MML show that $3.50 is a real possibility if 150,000 ounce production occurs with no shift in the gold price. If anything close to 200,000 occurs and the gold price stays the same or increases, then anything north of $4.00 is not out of the question in my view.

That might sound very optimistic but they got well past those price levels on just 100,000 ounce production and while the gold price at that stage was around $1,600+, the gold price hasn't halved but the production may double, so $4.00+ to me is not out of the question.
Click to expand...

Near two years later and the once heralded gold company was to produce some of the lowest cost gold in the world. Some thought $4 on the cards but trading under 40c as I type and confidence has gone through the floor. Hard to really point at bad problems now and just maybe they are a good punt, well just maybe.
 
Gold price has been the main deterrent along with all in costs being much higher then originally expected. Previously they only quoted a portion of these costs but now show all-in costs in each of their reports. Has rebounded recently given the rise in gold price and they still haven't reached the point where they produce 200,000oz per annum.

Still feel like the company has potential to get back to the $3-4 mark but depends largely on the gold price.
 
Medusa suffered with all its irons in one Filipino gold mine that has never quite achieved the big expectations of 6 years ago. The share price has plummeted from over $5 down to an earlier low point under 30c. Looks to be slowly getting its act together and one to watch for entry as sentiment improves.
 
I have been gradually adding MML shares for several years and moved into plus territory at 45c . The shares are frustrating after having hit around $6.00 some many years back. Look to be recovering in an up and down nervous fashion. A goldie that might well surprise going forward.
 
The MML chart was looking good until the sudden selling. No news has been released.

mml1906.PNG
 
MML is basically a disaster over the years. Probably the worse performance amongst all the gold shares. Once mid-cap and now, lost its cap. Promised gold production at the lowest cost in Australia and failed miserably at every single turn. Now twisting and turning but on the same spot.

I thought averaging down to 45c a share was a good move and $1.00 a certainty. Nay it was not and around 35c against a high around $8.00 now. Procrastination is the thief of time and our money as well.

Still, tough cookies for those who lost or are losing money, myself included. Is there a way back to the good times. In a word NO! However they are ones to keep an eye on at this low level should the current management see some real success.
 
Well MML are now trading in the area 35c - 45c and taking little notice of the gold price. RED5 is now up 170% from its low point and MML up about 40%. Both extreme laggards and cash investment destroyers, big time. RED now appear to have gained traction but MML languish.
-----

7 May 2018: Medusa suffered with all its irons in one Filipino gold mine that has never quite achieved the big expectations of 6 years ago. The share price has plummeted from over $7 down to an earlier low point under 30c. Looks to be slowly getting its act together and one to watch for entry as sentiment improves.

2 October 2013: I was surprised to see that the price of MML held up today. I was expecting a fall on the back of falling price of gold. Perhaps 2.05 is the new support level?

19 January 2011: Was an easy call below $5 and even better at $4.50. I see little reason for it not to go back above $7, if not again reach the highs under a more supportive gold price. The price falls didn't make a lot of sense, except for some short-term issues. MML is a fairly straight forward longer term position as they move towards substantially higher production, albeit with the one risk of operating in the Phillipines. Still good at current prices.

14 January 2011: Significant jump to close at 7.7 yesterday (current 7.55) from low of 6.34 on Jan 6 when I was stopped out.

6 August 2004: Considering this stock has been trading at 60cents a few months ago, what would you regard as the main reason for the pull back?
 
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No longer trading in the 35c to 40c range as Medusa push through the 80c level and that without the Philippine assets that just sit there. The high Aussie dollar gold price has been a saviour. Look now to be ready to challenge the $1 level after so many years in the doldrums.
 
Medusa are up about 180% from the low point but is really a laggard in this sector compared to RED, RMS and SLR. Dropped back again from the 90c level and though cheap, imho, this share is out of favour still. It was once at around $6.00 in 2012 and about to become the world's lowest cost producer - that all fell apart.
 
Trialing some new software and I still have my training wheels on so bear with me as I post a few charts and hopefully I can get 1 or 2 predictions correct

MML is a stock that I have not looked at before and being a gold stock naturally I am interested now

Daily chart below showing the potential pivot point zone for wave 2 and the potential wave 3 targets, MML is also in over sold territory so will it pivot up or ........ to be continued

1608802666325.png
 
Trav. said:
being a gold stock naturally I am interested now
Click to expand...

I read their recent preso Trav ...... Lots of good numbers, but two alone for me say it all ...

Market Cap about $150 million

Cash/Bullion on hand +$60 million (super positive ratio for a producing Co)

Plus, Royal Crowne had a + 67 metre hit at over 5 g/t Gold in recent drilling!!

Assuming the POG remains reasonably stable, if this Goldy fails, all other minnow Goldies are doomed

If I had spare cash I'd buy some myself! Tempted to try and find some?
 

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